WRITTEN QUESTION E-2572/96 by Amedeo Amadeo (NI) to the Commission (11 October 1996)

Subject: CO2 emissions

In the fifth action programme on the environment and sustainable development, which was adopted in 1992, the EU undertook to stabilize its CO2 emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000, and then to reduce that level in 2005 and 2010. However, the 1990 level first had to be determined and agreed upon as the reference figure.

There would, unfortunately, appear to be major disparities in the figures quoted by the various sources: Eurostat states that the estimated level of CO2 emissions in 1990 stands at 3 188 000 000 tonnes (recently revised upwards from 2 911 000 000 tonnes); the European Environment Agency quotes a figure of 3 063 290 000 tonnes; a Commission document, 3 285 000 000; and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3 329 750 000.

These discrepancies are all the more surprising given that the 5-year Community programme Corine was devoted to the collection and coordination of data on the state of the environment and natural resources in the EU.

Given the lack of reliability of the data supplied by the various European bodies, would the Commission not agree that it should quantify once and for all the objectives laid down in the fifth programme and, in particular, determine the definitive target level for CO2 emissions in the year 2000?

Answer given by Mrs Bjerregaard on behalf of the Commission (14 November 1996)

The Commission is monitoring very closely the progress made towards fulfilling the commitments undertaken in the fifth action programme on the environment and sustainable development ((COM(94) 453 final.)) and in particular, on the commitment to stabilise C02 emissions by 2000 at 1990 levels in the Community as a whole. It is also working on the further adoption and implementation of policies and measures at Community and national levels towards subsequent substantial reductions of emissions in the post 2000 period. In this context it is important to obtain the most accurate data.

The Commission can therefore appreciate the concern of the Honourable Member at the discrepancies in the 1990 levels of reported CO2 emissions on different occasions by different sources, which exist for the following reasons:

- all figures for CO2 emissions are estimates which result from complex calculations which can be done in several different ways. It is therefore not surprising that estimates from different bodies differ. What is important is that the differences are mostly small in relation to the inherent uncertainty attached to all emissions estimates. A large part of the difference results from the inclusion or exclusion of important categories of emissions such as marine bunker fuels or from non-energy use of fossil fuels or from a fundamentally different methodology;

- for a given estimation methodology it is the trend which is important in terms of stabilisation, not the absolute values. As the methodologies are improved it is necessary to revise the estimates already published for earlier years in order to maintain comparability between years.

Concerning the quoted figures:

- the Commission's C02 emissions estimates cover energy-related CO2 emissions only, and are based on a common set of emission factors for all countries using energy balances. The 1990 CO2 emissions estimates of 2921 million tonnes ((Statistiques de base, Edition 31, 1995, table 8.2.)) exclude emissions from the former German Democratic Republic. The recently published figure of 3188 million tonnes of CO2 emissions for 1990 is for fifteen Member States;

- the figure of 3 063 million tonnes CO2 quoted in the 'Dobris statistical compendium' comes from the US CDIAC estimates which use a different methodology than did the Commission;

- the estimated total of 3 285 million tonnes is the 15 Member States' CO2 emissions inventories for 1990 as published in the second evaluation of national programmes report under the monitoring mechanism of Community CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions ((COM(96) 91 final.)) and accounts for both energy-related (95%) and non energy-related (5%) carbon dioxide emissions.These inventories are based on emissions data submitted by the 15 Member States which are checked and confirmed prior to finalising the totals for the Community. They are in line with the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) guidelines and adapted to the Corinair methodology by the European environment agency which uses the same format as required for reporting under the United Nations framework convention on climate change.