WRITTEN QUESTION E-2160/02

by Theresa Villiers (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(18 July 2002)

Subject: The euro and the rounding-up of prices

Extracts from the Eurobarometer poll 57.1, published in Memo IP/02/791 dated 31 May 2002, suggest that 68,5 % of those surveyed in the eurozone believe that prices have been rounded up in all areas.

Has the Commission attempted to quantify the impact on prices as a result of rounding-up following the introduction of the euro?

Answer given by Mr Solbes Mira on behalf of the Commission

(16 September 2002)

There is no statistical evidence that the euro changeover has caused a generalised price increase in any of the euro area countries.

Eurostat issued a press release in July 2002 that analyses trends in prices over the last few months and addresses the euro changeover related issues(1).

Inflation in the euro area peaked in May 2001 (3,3 % annual increase of the harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP)) and has not since reached comparable levels. During the changeover period it is possible to observe an increase from an annual growth rate of 2 % in December 2001 to an annual rate of 2,7 % in January 2002. These increases can be traced to the hike in oil prices and prices of fresh fruit and vegetables. In fact, inflation has followed a similar trend (from 1,9 % to 2,5 % annually) in the Union, thereby including the three countries not part of the euro area. In particular, from December 2001 to January 2002, yearly inflation increased from 2,1 % to 2,5 % in Denmark and from 1 % to 1,6 % in the United Kingdom. During this period, inflation decreased in Portugal and in the Netherlands. Italy saw only a minor increase in inflation from 2,2 % to 2,4 %(2). Inflation has since then been characterised by a descending trend. It reached 1,8 % in the euro area in June 2002.

The average rate of change in the euro-zone HICP between the first six months of 2002 and the last six months of 2001 was 1,4 %. This rate was the same as the six-month rate ending in June 2001 and close to the corresponding rates in June and December 2000.

The largest part of the price increases over this period can for most item groups according to Eurostat's analysis be explained by a normal inflation pattern and by some special non-euro factors; in particular bad weather affecting fruit and vegetable prices, car and energy prices, and some significant tax increases on tobacco(3). These factors can explain as much as 1,2 percentage points out of the total of 1,4 %. The contribution to the 1,4 % total of the changeover to euro banknotes and coins most likely falls within the range of 0,0 % to 0,2 %(4).

Some sectors of the economy have, nonetheless, seen a more pronounced increase in prices. Apart from food, some services, mainly hotels and restaurants, some health-related services and some repair services registered strong price increases. It is possible

that due to the particularly sensitive nature of categories where prices have indeed risen, the effect on public opinion may be significant. This may explain why there is a general perception that prices have risen following the introduction of the euro banknotes and coins.

However, it should be remembered that the fundamental medium to long run anticipated effect of the physical introduction of euro banknotes and coins is to improve the competitive environment across the euro area, and thus ultimately to raise economic efficiency as well as have a downward impact on consumer prices.

(1) The press release No 84/2002 issue on 17 July 2002 may be found at the following internet address: http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/Public/datashop/print-product/EN?catalogue=Eurostat&product=2-17072002-EN-BP-EN&mode=download.

(2) Eurostat.

(3) The alcohol and tobacco goods registered a 2 % quarterly inflation q/q in 2002Q1.

(4) This range is slightly higher than the 0,0 % to 0,16 % range estimated for the month-on-month change between December 2001 and January 2002 and the quarter-on-quarter change between the last quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of 2002, as first published by Eurostat in February and May 2002.