EN Official Journal of the European Union CE 84/937

(2004/C 84 E/1035)

WRITTEN QUESTION P-1062/04

by Christine De Veyrac (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(30 March 2004)

Subject: Economic impact of migration following enlargement of the European Union

On 26 February 2004, the European Commission presented a new study, drawn up in conjunction with the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, into patterns of migrant-worker flows after the forthcoming enlargement. The conclusions of that study indicate that, over the next five years, some 1 % of the population of the new Member States will move to the countries which currently make up the European Union. According to the Commission, that percentage translates into about 220 000 people per year.

Can the Commission indicate whether it has any estimates which include figures for each host country, and, in particular, what the likely impact of such post-enlargement migration will be on France?

Can the Commission also indicate the economic impact of enlargement on the labour market of a country like France, where the unemployment rate is particularly high?

Answer given by Mr Dimas on behalf of the Commission

(30 April 2004)

The study to which the Honourable Member refers is based on the results of a Eurobarometer survey carried out on a population sample in the future Member States and the candidate countries, one of the topics being opinions concerning intentions to migrate in the next five years. On this basis, the figure of 220 000 per year is an indicative estimate of the possible annual migratory flow from these countries to the current European Union. As it is an opinion poll, its conclusions should be interpreted with caution. However, they confirm the conclusions of previous Commission studies (1) on the low migratory flows to be expected from the new Member States to the existing ones, although the migration estimates provided by these studies are based on statistical models and are therefore not strictly comparable to those set out in the study referred to by the Honourable Member.

According to the updated study, the number of residents from the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) in France would be approximately 25 800 in 2001, compared with 22 000 in 1997, representing 0,04 % of the total population. Migration to France would be 7 000 in 2004 and 9 000 in 2005. The studies confirm that Germany and Austria are the main destinations for migrants from the CEECs.

With regard to the economic impact of this enlargement on the labour market, the Commission believes that the Union must make the most of the positive effect of enlargement on Europe's economy (2). Moreover, the Commission Communication on immigration, integration and employment (3) highlighted the positive contribution which immigration has made to economic growth and employment in the EU and pointed out that there was little evidence that immigration would lead to an increase in unemployment. The Commission believes that labour mobility within the EU and taking greater advantage of the potential offered by immigration are crucial issues for EU competitiveness and achieving the objectives of the Lisbon agenda.

(1) The Impact of Eastern Enlargement on Employment and Labour Markets in the EU Member States' and its update, ‘Potential Migration from Central and Eastern Europe into the EU-15 — An Update’. The study and its update are available at the following address: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/employment_analysis/impact_en.htm

(2) COM(2004) 29 final.

(3) COM(2003) 336 final.