WRITTEN QUESTION E-1778/98

by Reimer Böge (PPE) to the Commission

(5 June 1998)

Subject: Analytical studies and cooperation on Agenda 2000

1. Could the Commission state which outside experts or scientists provided the Commission with analytical studies or models in connection with the drawing up of Agenda 2000?

2. Which of those studies were incorporated in the Commission's proposals?

3. Does the Commission have at its disposal any concrete micro-economic studies concerning the consequences of Agenda 2000 for agricultural holdings and the various regions and if so, what are they?

4. Which sections of DG VI were involved in the formulation of agricultural policy?

5. Were those responsible for the various market sectors involved in the relevant preparations, analytical studies and policy planning?

Answer given by Mr Fischler on behalf of the Commission

(10 July 1998)

1. - prepare the agricultural part of Agenda 2000(1), a series of preparatory studies were carried out by the Commission:

- on the long term outlook for key agricultural markets in the Community and worldwide;

- an in-depth analysis of the situation in the sectors directly concerned by the reform and in the case of arable crops including a first assessment of the impact of the 1992 reform;

- an analysis of the main trends to be observed in rural society;

- a first assessment of agri-environmental measures and afforestation programmes;

- an analysis of the agricultural economies in the Central and Eastern European countries, development before and possible evolution after accession and their potential impact on agricultural markets of the enlarged Community.

To carry out this work, numerous contacts took place with experts from the academic and the professional world. Further, the Commission analyzed and used the results of other studies and forecasts, in particular studies financed under the Community's agricultural research programme (FAIR) and forecasts published by the Food and agriculture organization (FAO), World Bank, Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), General agreement on tariffs and trade (GATT), World trade organization (WTO), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Food and agricultural policy research institute (FAPRI) and the Australian bureau of agricultural research (ABARE).

On specific aspects, the Commission consulted outside experts. This was in particular the case for the work on Central and Eastern European agriculture and on rural development. A study on world beef markets and prospects for Community exports was carried out. In addition, the Commission was able to benefit from studies carried out in the framework of the FAIR programme, namely the projects FAIR 1 - CT95-0029 on "Agricultural implications of CEEC accession to the EU" and FAIR 3 - CT96-1849 "Common agricultural policy regional impact analysis (CAPRI)".

2. The essential results of the analyses carried out by the Commission have been published as communications and reports, or in the form of Directorate general for agriculture working documents. Most of these documents contain a list of references, indicating the main sources which have been used.

3. To assess the impact of the Agenda 2000 proposals, the Commission has used a sectoral model called SPEL-MFSS developed by the University of Bonn and now run by Eurostat. This is the most complete policy simulation model for Community agriculture and allows the medium term impacts of policy changes to be assessed. Past experience, for example in the context of the 1992 reform, has confirmed the capability of this model.

Micro-economic analyses based on the farm accountancy data network (FADN) have been used to examine specific questions during the preparation of the proposals. Their methodology has been presented and discussed with experts from Member States in the FADN committee, together with studies carried out in some Member States on the basis of FADN.

As far as the analysis of the overall impact is concerned, the Commission did not rely on micro-economic calculations linked to so-called representative or model farms and based on FADN. Due to their static character and depending on the working hypotheses which are entered, such calculations can easily deliver quite misleading results, as experience has shown in the context of the 1992 reform.

However, the Commission is aware of the numerous static micro-economic calculations which have been carried out and presented in particular by some professional organizations.

4. and 5. As far as the work to prepare policy formulation is concerned, all relevant services of the Directorate general for Agriculture - which does not necessarily mean all officials - have been involved, including the various market sectors. The work was co-ordinated and monitored by the Director general. Based on the analytical work, the arguments and the preparatory work for policy formulation, final policy choices were made by the Commission on proposal of the member in charge of agriculture and rural development.

(1) COM(97) 2000 final.