WRITTEN QUESTION E-1206/97 by Amedeo Amadeo (NI) to the Commission (7 April 1997)

Subject: The environment and CO2

In order to achieve its objective of stabilizing CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000, the European Union must know the precise level of emissions in that reference year. But this is not the case, since the figures available vary according to the source from which they are taken, for example 2 751 million tonnes according to Eurostat (the 32nd edition published in 1995), 3 052 million tonnes according to the European Environment Agency (the CORINAIR 1990 inventory), 3 536 million tonnes for the 15 Member States (CORINAIR estimate for the same year), and 3 329 million tonnes according to the international panel on climate change (IPCC). Can the Commission say which figures it intends to use officially as reference values and why the data differ?

Answer given by Mrs Bjerregaard on behalf of the Commission (20 May 1997)

The official estimate for Community carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is 3 286 000 ktonnes, of which 3 134 740 ktonnes from fuel combustion, as reported in the Community communication to the United Nations framework convention on climate change (FCCC) in June 1996 ((COM(96) 217 final. )).

In order to know whether the Community has stabilised emissions by the year 2000, the actual level in 1990 is less important than measuring the trend. To calculate the trend it is imperative to use the same method of estimation for all years, and that this method is acceptable. The Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) has set out guidelines to help countries to estimate their own CO2 emissions. This is simplest for emissions from combustion of fossil fuels. Emissions are directly related to the carbon content of the fuel, which in turn is related to the energy content. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are calculated by multiplying data on fuel consumption by the emission factors for each fuel. The guidelines include a set of default CO2 emission factors but also allow countries to use their own emission factors, if they are better suited to the national situation.

Under Council Decision 389/93 ((OJ L 167, 9.7.1993. )) Member States are required to submit to the Commission annual inventories of CO2 emissions using the IPCC methodology. If emission factors other than IPCC default factors are used, they should be justified. The emission inventories received for 1990 were assessed by the European environment agency (EEA). Neither the Agency nor the Commission has the resources to check every figure submitted by the

Member States. However the Agency was able to identify and rectify some figures where the IPCC methodology had not been correctly applied, for example where countries have temperature-adjusted data to take into account the mild weather in 1990. As a result of this assessment, the official estimate of CO2 emissions for 1990, reported in the Community communication to the FCCC (June 1996), differs slightly from the sum of those submitted individually by Member States to the IPCC.

The Corinair emission inventory system included CO2 emissions for the first time in 1990. Since Corinair is constantly evolving and improving,1990 estimates are currently being revised to take these improvements into account. Because of this evolution in methodology, Corinair on its own is not a suitable vehicle for showing trends in CO2 emissions. It is however the only source in most countries for non-combustion related CO2 emissions, which are notoriously difficult to estimate, and which represent around 5% of total CO2 emissions. Also the experience gained in the EEA through the Corinair system is an important factor in their assessment of Member States' inventories. It is however the only source of consistent and comparable information in most Member States for non-fuel related CO2 emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and ozone precursors. For other greenhouse gases these contributions of non-fuel related emissions are much higher.

Eurostat estimates refer only to emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Eurostat collects and publishes energy data from Member States, using a widely recognised and harmonised methodology. It is therefore straightforward to apply emission factors to this energy data to estimate CO2 emissions. In the past the emission factors used by Eurostat have been the average of the factors used in Member States, but it has now been agreed that Eurostat will recalculate the whole time series using the IPCC default values. This will lead in 1997 to Eurostat publishing revised figures for 1990.

Because the emission factors used by Eurostat do not take into account the possible variations in emission factors used in Member States, Eurostat data are not used as the official estimates of emissions. However because the same methodology and emission factors are applied for all Member States and for all years, Eurostat data is considered as giving a reliable indication of trends. If a Member State's own inventory shows a widely differing trend from that observed in the Eurostat data, this is a signal to the Commission to investigate further. Eurostat data has the added advantage of being available more quickly than the inventories supplied by Member States, and is completely transparent. Anyone, including our co-signatories of the FCCC, can easily check the validity of the calculations and confirm the Community statements concerning stabilisation.