ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(80)117
Vol.1980/0038

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COMMISSION OPTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(80)117 final
Brussels .18thMarch1980
mig-o
|β>:3. ·ιV–"ASortiiuStrrÎUTftV ..Jl
V Géaéial
/
OUTLOOK FORTHELONG-TERM COAL
SUPPLY ANDDEMAND TRENDINTHECOMMUNITY
(ReportfromtheCommission totheCouncil)
C0MC80)117final

Atthe Energy Council meeting of4December 1979 the
Commission was asked tosubmit areport onthe Long term
outlook for coal inthe Community .
The report ishereby submitted .
/

CONTENTS
Page
I.Introduction
II.Economic Growth and Primary Energy Consumption
III.Breakdown ofOverall Primary Energy Consumption
byEnergy Source
IV.Coal Demand
V .Coal Supply 12
(a)General Considérât ions ^ 12
(b)Community Coal Production '15
(c)Coal Imports 16

I.Introduction ,
\ -
1.Thepattern ofcoal consumption intheCommunity wasfairly encouraging in
1973 /79,andsupply anddemand canbeexpected todevelop inbalanced fashion
in1980 andthefollowing year .Although inthe short term there should not
beanyserious problems ,the long-term outlook forcoal supply anddemand in
the Community inview ofthenewworld energy situation isdifficult topredict .
Aperiod of20years (1980-to 2000 )isconsidered ,with 1990 included asan
interpolation value .
2.This study isinnoway intended toanticipate along-term coal and energy
policy strategy for the Community ;which has yet tobeworket out *Itdeals
solely with economic trends onthe Community coal market and does not refer
topolitical options oraims orofmethods .ofachieving such aims .
Italso leaves out ofaccount thepossibility that political events may have
serious repercussions onthe world energy market . -
3.Only general assumptions can bemade andgeneral estimating methods used to
investiyate trends onthecoal market .Thefigures given forthe''coal market
and theremarks made apply totheCommunity ingeneral and not toindividual
Member States .The coal market has,however ,been divided into consumption
sectors foranalysis purposes . •-

4.Anumberoforganizations andcompanies havemadeenergyforecasts since
1
,1975covering varyingperiods.TheseincludetheECSCConsultative Committee ,
theIEA2,OECD3,WEC^,WAES5,EXXON6andBP7.
->
TheCommission 'sservices havedrawnonthesesourcesinpreparing thispaper
bv-thavebasedtheirestimates onconsiderations oftheirown.Insomecases
theirestimates arewithinthemarginsoferrorofotherpublished estimates
butinotherstheyvarywidelyfromthe-iatter ..
5.In1979theCommission 'sservices wroteenergyconsumption scenarios forthe
year2000whicharenowbeingrevised .Sinceitwilltakesometimebefore
theresults canbefinalized ,thefiguresgivenin.thispapershouldbe
regarded asprovisional .
s *
6.Itisespecially difficult toworkoutprediction for2000because weare
onthethreshold oftremerdous economic andtechnica.l developments inthe
energysector.Thesearesummarized below : /
-.General economic growth (availability ofindigenous resources ,balance
ofpayments problems,generalpricetrneds)-
.-Political andeconomic behaviour ofenergyconsumers inreaction to
thesituation ontheworldoilmarket
Energypriceswhicharenotclearlyoriented toproduction costs
Technical safety,ecological andenvironmental considerations .
ECSCConsultative Committee :"MediumandLong-Term Perspectives forCoal
intheCommunity "(1979).0.J.'N° C161,28.6.1979
2... . -IEA:'SteamCoal,Prospects to2000",Paris1978
0ECD■:"WorldEnergyOutlook",-Paris1977
4WorldEnergyConference :"WorldEnergy,Looking Aheadto2020,Report
bytheConservation Commission (1978)
^WorkshoponAlternative EnergyStragegies "WorldEnergyProspects 1985-2000"
(1977) . ,
AEXXON:"WorldEnergyOutlook"(1978) %"
^BP:"Energy2000-TrendsandOutlook"(1977).

-3-
-New developments inenergy technology (fIinch zed-bed combustion ,
gasification and liquefaction ofcoal ,heat pump ,combined heat /power
generation ,rationalization ofenergy consumption ,better insulation ,
etc.) - . %
-Development of"new"energies <geothermal ,wind and solar energy ).
Altough these factors will undoubtedly have aninfluence inthe coming
.« • » •
decades ,itisextremely difficult toquantify what effect they will have
ontrends inthe energy sector .Itshould therefore Jsestressed that the
figures given are based onassumptions and that there are large margins of .
uncertainty .
y ■
) « ; '
7.The margins ofuncertainty are mentioned solely inthe text .M^an values
are given inthe tables forclarity 'ssake . -
II.Economic Growth and Primary Energy Consumption ' •'
N ._ - , .
8.Future economic growth inthe Comm'Jni tywi11bedetermined byalarge number
acoffactors -the individual effect ofwhich will betocurb orcelerate growth ,
but whose overall effect will beoffset orcumulative -thus sustaining .any
ν
estimation of GDP growth rates extremely hazardous .
The yearly growth rates for real GDP given inTable 1(3.6% for 1980 /90
and 3%1990 /2000 lead tovirtually adoubling intwenty years (index 192).
Similar growth rates are used inmany other published estimates .
The annual growth rate of3.3% given -inTable 1for the period 1980 to2000
asawhole would probably represent aminimum of2.8% and amaximum of3.5% .
With annual growth rate of2.8% the index for GDP is174 inthe year 2000
and with anannual growth rate of3.5% 200 (1980 ■100),adifference in
growth of25%.Annual growth rates ofless than 2.8% would aggravate the
problem ofunemployment . ; ;

-4-
9.Untiltheoilcrisisin1973theratioofeconomic growthtotheincrease in
overallprimary energyconsumption (expressed asanelasticity coefficient )
hadforafairlylongtimebeen1:1,giving acoefficient of1.As.aresult
oftheincrease inthepriceofoilandotherenergysources andconscious
efforts byprivate andotherenergyconsumers ,energysavings weremadebetween
1973and1979whichbroughttheenergycoefficient downto0.8.Itcanbe
assumed underfavourable conditions thatthecoefficient canbefurther reduced
to0.75or0.65(seeTable 1intheAnnex)forthefollowing reasons :
Furtherrisesinenergypriceswillencourage conservation
*
-'Manyenergy-saving techniques willonlygradually begintohaveany
impactinthefuture ,
Energy-intensive industries willprobably notexpandasmuchastheGDP.
Ν *
V
10.Economic growthandthe1elasticity ofconsumption determine overall energy
.consumption ,which,according totheassumptions madeinTable 1,willbe
1340rrtoein1990and1640mtoein2000.Giventhevariations ineconomic
growth (seepoint8),thisgivesamarginofuncertainty ofaboufy100mtoe
for1990and140mtoefor2000.Theconsumption figuresgiveninTable 1would
hencelieinthefollowing range(inmtoe):
Lower Meanvalue Upper ~M''estimate (Table1)estimate argin
1990 *1270 1340 1370 +30/-70
2000 1540 1640 1680 +40/-100Meanvalue Upper -„'.
«N .Margin(Table 1)estimate

-5-
Breakdown ofOverall Energy Consumption byEnergy Source
(see Table 1and 2inthe Annex )
11.The figures given for the future trend ofnatural gas consumption are
based onproduction and import prospects .Similar ,figures are given
-1,
inseveral other studies .Ithas been assumed inthis paper that the
"useofnatural gasforelectricity generation will decline ^harpl.y after
1990 .
12.Oil consumption and supply forecasts are extremely uncertain .The
forecasts made ifithis paper are based onthe following assumptions :
Community oil production will rise from around 90million tin1980
to130 million tin1990 ,remaining atthis level until 2000 . ■
Consumption will increase .,slight lyuntil 1990 butuill then drop
assynthetic products derived from the liquefaction ofcoal come on
tothe market around 2000 .-
Oil imports will belimited to470 million tbetween 1980 and 1990
and will then falI.
Itcan also beassumed that the use ofheavy fuel oil iopower stations
like that ofnatural gas,will decline significantly .
13.Hydro ,geothermal ,lignite and other energy sources will represent
approximately 60mtoe in1980 .Itisassumed that this figure will
virtually double by2000 to115 mtoe but that avarying pattern will
.emerge for each energy source .Rough estimates are given ,particularly
^forgeothermal ,solar andother energies because there arenoreliable
methods ofcalcu'lation<No margins ofuncertai nty can begiven forthese '
■energy sources ;the figures given are toberegarded asmaximum values ,
however .

-6-
14.Totalelectricity consumption isadecisive factorforthefuture
development ofnuclear energyaridcoal.ThefiguresgiveninTable2
forestimated totalelectricity production areassumedtoberealistic .
Ifonlylimitedquantities ofoil,gas,hydro,lignite,etc.areavai­
lableasinputenergies,itcanbeassumedthattherewillbeadirect
interrelationship betweennuclear energyandcoalinthisconsumption
sectorinthefuture.Agapinthesupplyofnuclearenergyforexample
wouldautomatically havetobefilledbycoalandviceversa.
15.Asfarascanbeacertained ,fromtheinformation nowavailaIbe,base-load
electricity willbeproduced morecheaplyinnuclear powerstations than
incoal-fired powerstations intheMemberStatesintheeighties and-,
probably inthelongerterm.(Thiswillbe.trueevenifelectricity
producers canburncheapimported coal).Electricity producers willthus
endeavour tomeetbase-load needswithnuclear energyasfaraspossible .
However,sincetheseeconomic considerations aresubjecttovarying
constraints inallMemberStates,coal-fired powerstationswillhave
tobeusedtomeetmorethanjustmedium-load electricity demand.However
thelocation ofnewsitesforcoal-fired powerstations isalsoaproblem
asitisfornuclear powerstations andanyestimate oftheshareofcoal
andnuclear energyinfutureelectricity production ishenceextremely'
unreliable .
*V . '
16.Therearewidevariations between thedifferent predictions offuture
nuclearenergyuse.Becauseoftherepeated revisions ofnationaI'pro-....
grammes theCommission isfacedwithadifficult taskintryingtomake
fairlyreliable assumptions aboutthefuture.Basedoncurrentnational
programmes andotherpublished data,typicalfiguresfornuclear energy
usearearound170mtoefor1990and275mtoefor2000.Specialefforts
willbenecessary iftheseordersofmagnitude aretobeeffectively
achieved . „

, -7-
AmarginofatLeast10%eitherway(i.e.204inall)isincorporated in
thesefigures .
Theuseofnuclear energyandcoalinpowerstations canbebrokendown
asfollows,allowing forthismargin : .~
Table A
UséofNuclear EnergyandCoalin
.Electricity Generation
(Community )
mtoe
Lower
estimate!
;Meanvalue
|(Table2)Upper
estimate: :
Overalt m^rgin
i
i ,
i i
Nuclear
energy155" 170 -185 30'
f
1990Coal 145 . 130 115 j
I30
;Total 300 300 300
iNuclear
jenergy'250 "275 . 300 50
Coal .255 230
I205 |
i50 I
!
jTotal
I;505'' 505
! i:I
505j

-8-
IV.CoalDemand (seeTables 3to5intheAnnex)
17.Coalconsumption isbrokendownbyconsumption sectorsintheMemberSta­
tescoalbalances givenintheAnnex.Consumption ofpatentfuelandcoke
hasbeenconverted intocoaltoenable auniform balance tobedrawn
up.Figuresaregiveninmilliontonnes Ct=t)tofacilitete comparison
withMemberStates' ortheCommission 'scoalstatistics .Thecorrelation
betweentheoverallfiguresgiveninTable 1forcoal,expressed intoe,
andthefiguresgiveninTables3and4,expressed incoal(t=t)
wasestablished usingtheconversion factors showninTable5.The
factorsgivenfor1980wereusedfortheentireperiodconsidered .
18.NocommentswillbemadehereonTables 3.and4sincepasttrendsof
Community coalconsumption areoflessrelevance tothefuturethanare
newtrends.
19.Table5showstheforecasts fortheCommunity 'scoalcansumption bysecto
ThistableappliesonlytotheCommunity asawholeandnottothe
-individual MemberStatesbecauseatpresent,nosatisfactory information
isavailable concerning energyconsumption bycountry andbysector.
20.Theuseofcoalinpowerstations hasalready beendiscussed under
point16.Thisconsumption sector-alongwithsteamcoal-willaccount
forthemajorshareoffuturecoalconsumption ,levelling offataround
60%intheperiod1980to1990andthenrisingto70%by2000.

-9-
'21 .The coal required bythe steel industry ismainly coking coal .The
quantities required depend onthe *quantities ofsteel produced and the
specific coke consumption per tonne ofpig iron .Itisassumed that
crude steel production will'' rise from some 136 million tin1980 to
160-170 million tin1990 and to180-190 million tinthe year 2000 .
Asregards specific coke consumption ,itistobeexpected that ,.
 
although the overall heat requirement per tonne ofpig iron will decline ,
the specific consumption ofcoke -which now stands atsome 500 kg will
decline slowly because ofthe steeply rising price offuel oil.Itwas
onthis basis that the figures inTable 5for the steel industry 'scoal
consumption were arri ved at. '
22.Anincrease isforecast inthe coal requirement oftheother industries
contrary tothe -trend inthe previous 20years -but there issome
uncertainty astoits scale .The figures are arough estimate .However ,
areversal ofthe trend ofcoal consumption inthis area may besafely
assumed ,since the introduction ofnew technologies (egfluidized-bed
combustion )istobeexpected and the relative prices offuel oil and
coal are likely toevolve tothe advantage ofcoal ,particularly if
imported coal continues todetermine the price ofCommunity coal (see
point31).
32.Inline with the previous t<»end ,the demand for coal inthe domestic
sector islikely tocontinue todecline for the following reasons : -
ν· '\
~Alth-ugh the number ofdwellings inthe Community islikely to
continue toincrease ,the heat requirement per dwell"' ", v-i11decline
considerably because ofimproved insulation inboth oia and new
housi ng.
Waste heat from power stations ,solar energy ,cracking products
from oil refineries and natural gas will be ,used toagreater
extent for space heating .

-10-
24.Thequantities ofcoal under the headi ng~"0ther "relate mainly to
thegasification and liquefaction ofcoal -which explains therise to
some 25million tintheyear 2000 .This figure too isarough estimate
based ontheassumption that by2000 or^thereabOuts atleast five
gasification and liquefaction plants each with anannual input of
5million tofcoal will beinoperation .
25.Addition ofthedemand figures produces mean values indicating total coal
,consumption of390million tin1990 and ,580million tinthe year 2000
'(Table 5inthe Annex )^
Ifthealternative estimates ofeconomic growth (seepoint 10)are
applied proportionately tocoal and ifthealternative estimate of
nuclear energy (seepoint 16)areapplied fully tocoal ,,the following
estimated margins emerge : • . ■.
Table B
- . /
Estimate qtthePossible Spread ofCommunity #
Coal Consumption , ._
Mean value mtoe
mt -(t=t )235
390
Margi n mtoe•+
1990 -Economic growth
-Nuclear energy-10
-15+ 5
+15
Limit values :mtoe
mt (t=t )210
,350255
420
Mean l'alue ■mtoe
mt (t=t )345
580 ■
.2000Margin
-Economic
r-Nuclear:mtoe
growth
energy-25 -–25/
+8
+25
Limit values :mtoe
mt (t=t )295 378
' 635

-11-
Ifeconomic growth isonly anaverage of2.8% ayear andifnuclear
energy develops 10% fast® /*than envisaged today ,*40million tless coal
would beneeded in1990 .Conversely ,greater growth ofthe gross domestic
product and asmaller expansion ofnuclear energy would mean anadditional
requirement of30million tofcoal in1990 .The margin ofuncertainty .of
the forecast isthus 70million tofcoal .
For the year 2000 this margin isnaturally even greater ,i*e.140 million t.
Demand could be 85mill-ion tofcoal less or 55million tofcoal more than
th&mean value. -
26.The preceding estimates appear extremely high incomparison with the ..
Community 'spresent coal consumption .The reader should ,bear inmind the -..[•
method ofestimation described atthe beginning ofthis document ..
i " i
IItshould bepointed out that the possible disadvantages ofusing too high i'
anestimate ofdemand may beregarded asbeing less significant than .those ••
which would arise from using too low anestimate . -
27.Incalculating this rapid and steep rise incoal' consumption inthe Community ,:.
.ithas been assumed that the corresponding consumption capacities will >
develop atthe same rate .Infact ,however ,there will ofcourse betechni­
cal and financial difficulties ,aswell asenvi ronmenta Iproblems .The
same applies tothe infrastructure ,which includes ports ,handling and •.-•-v.
transport facilities ofall kinds ,the distribution network ,coal storage
facilities ,the disposal ofcombustion residues etc.

12-
Coal Supply
(a)General 'Considerations
28.Itisgenerally thought today that ,the evolution ofthe world energy
market uptothe year 2000 will bemarked byarelative ,possibly
increasing ,energy shortage .Energy prices are,accordingly ,expected
tocontinue torise . (The market will -outside .periods ofeconomic
recession -beaseller 'smarket ,i.e. competition between the .different
energy sources will bevery marked atnational orinternational level .
Competition isunlikely toheat upuntil once avery high energy price
leveL has been reached ,the alternative energies become competitive
and available inappréciable quantities .
29.Because ofthe various .influences towhich they are subject ,the
situation onthe markets for the individual energy sources will continue
•tovary . Adecisive factor asregards the Community coal market is
that the Community 'scoal-mining industry isrun byvery large (and,
inpart ,nationalized )units and iskept alive byState subsidies of
varying size . - -
Coal imported from non-Community countries has adecisive influence
onprices .Although this coal has only a20% share ofthe market ,
itsets the upper price limits for both coking coal and steam coal .
However ,onthe general industrial heat market ,imported coal has not
entirety taken over from oil asthe main price-leader .

-13-
30.Toavoidendangering theexistence ofaCommunity miningindustry
withhighproduction costs,theGovernments ofthefourcoal-producing
countries intheCommunity pursueimportpolicies -eachinlinewith
itsownrequirements andinvarying ways-seekingtosafeguard the
marketing ofnational output.Thenecessities ofemployment policy some­
timesalsoplayapart. :
TheotherMemberStateshavenorestriction ontheimportation ofcoal
fromnon-Community countries .
31.Itmaybe.assumedthat,becauseoftheprevailing geological conditions ,
thecoalminedintheCommunity willcontinue tobeextracted atsub- !
stantialiy highercost^thannon-Community coal.
However,i-tisopentoquestion towhatextentproduction costs(inclu- .
dingssitransport inthecaseofimported coal)willcontinue tobe
themoindetermining factorforpriceformation ,ontheCommunity 'scoal
market.Nor-fora,widerangeo^f-reasons-canalackofsupplyflexi­
bilitybeexcluded inrespectofnon-Community coaleither,afactwhich
.sometirr.es causessteeppricerises.
}
.ι
Thefactremainsxhatsince1973coalimportsintotheCommunity have
doubled .Thisexpansion showsthataworldcoalmarketwhich,incom­
parisonwithothermarketsislargely exemptfromStateinterference ,
hasmanaged topreserve theadvantages ofamarketgoverned byfree
competition :continuity ofsupply,flexibility andacalrapricetrend.
Provided therearenotendencies forcartels tobeformed onthisworld
market,itmaybeassumedthat,inthemediumandlongterm,theprice
ofimported coalisunlikely tobesubstantially highert~hanthemarginal
produceionar.dtransport costs.Imported coal'scompetitive leadover
Community coai.asaresultofitsnatural advantages islikelytopersist.

'-14-
32.There seems little point intrying toestimate the Level ofsubsidy
'which Community coal will probably require .Under normal conditions
the aids for Community coal are likely tocontinue -toincrease .This
isparticularly likely tobethe case ifbecause oftheenergy supply
situation worldwide ,existing extraction capacities have tobemain­
tained ,oreven slightly increased . '
33.Onthe basis ofthepolicy considerations wehave described ,itis
•assumed below that Community coal will continue tooccupy aspecial
position inthe four coal-producing countries ,though the situation
will not bethe same in -all four .Itisfurther assumed ,onthe basis
ofpast experience within the Community and anumber of ,official state
rnents ,that only marginal quantities ofthis coal will besupplied to
markets other than those ofthe countries concerned .However ,coking
coal and coke forthe steel industry will nodoubt continue tobean
except ion .
Itisassumed that remaining requi rements ,ieinthe five other Member
States ,butalso inthe four coal-producing countries will becovered
bynon-Community coal .

(b)Community CoalProduction (seeTable6)
34.Table6attempts toquantify thevarious coalextraction trends
intheindividual Community countries .Itisbasedonthenational
energyprogrammes ,official statements byGovernments andcoalpro­
ducers,investment programmes etc.
Whileproduction willdeclineinBelgium andFrancebecause themines
therearehighlyuneconomic ,increases aretobeexpected inthe
UnitedKingdom andtheFederalRepublic ofGermany butonlyifmas-v
siveinjections ofpublicmoneyaremade.Theassumptions aretobe
regarded asoptimistic andthusasmaximumquantities .
Onthebasisofthesefigures theproduction targetof270million
t(t=t)for1985setbytheCommunity in1974wouldbejustabout
achieved in1990andexceeded bysome10%intheyear2000. ••
35.Intermsofexisting coalreserves,technical possibilities and
planning,theestimates contained inTable6arefeasible .However,
thefollowing conditions mustbefulfilledifthenecessary capaci­
tiesaretobeavailable intime:
-Capitalinvestment mustbeincreased toraisecapacities and
achieve 'rationalization .Theadvantages ofamodernandgenerously
scaledlayout,fornewminesislikelytobebalanced outbythe„
highcapitaloutlayandthemored'i-fficult'workingconditions at
greater depths.
-Ifproductivity perhourofworkrisesonlyslowlyandworking
timeperyeardeclinesslightly,highwagesandattractive -working
conditions willhavetobeofferedtoattract anadequate work
force. ' t .

-Raisingofproduct !vitymustbebackedupbyrapidshutdown of
. Φ
marginal capacities ,combined withappropriate socialplans.
-Thesetting upofminesatnewlocations mustnotbedelayed by
excessively protracted approval procedures . -
(c)CoalImports (seeTable6)
36.According tothecalculation inTableB(seepoint25)coalimports
intotheCommunity wouldbeasfollows (crdei–of-magnitude figures)
Taci.u u
-CoalImportsintotheCommunity
int(t=t)
!
i - _
i •"jLower
|estimatesMeanvalue
(Table6)Upper
estimates'Margin
j;■Consumptioni
!350;390i
420--40/+30(70)
;1990
ICommunity
production263 263 263
Imports'87 127 157 -40/+30(70)
Consumption 495
--580 635 -85/+55(140)
2000 Community
production300 300-5' 300
i
Imports.' 195 280 335
É-S5/+55(140)I
i
Asexplained inpoint33thecalculations assumethatimported coal
willcoverthedifference ,between consumption andindigenous produc
tion.
Itmustalsobepointedoutthattheincrease intheCommunity 's
importrequirement willmainlyconcern steamcoal(seeconsumption
structure inTable5intheAnnex).High-grade cokingcoalislikely

-17-
»
toremain infairly short supply onthe world market and highly
.valued inperiods ofcyclical upturn for the steel Industry .Under
these conditions Community coking coal could regain itsability to
compete .The Community 'ssteel industry will accordingly continue "to
rely mainly onCommunity coking coal .
37.World hard coal production in1978 was some 2630 million tonnes .
According torecent predictions ,bythe end ofthe century itcould
increase tosome 5000 to6000 million tonnes .As -for .Community coal ,
optimum conditions will beneeded for the world 'sother coal producers
ifthis order ofmagnitude istobeachieved bythe year 2000 .
Atthe 10th World Energy Conference inIstanboul ,the 11main coal-
producing countries announced their intention ofincreasing output
from 2200 million t(1975 ).to 3400 in1985 and 5100 million in
the year 2000 .Insome cases itisopen toquestion whether these
targets will bereached . /
38.Inview ofthe expected increase inworld hard coal output ,itmay
beassumed that additional quantities will besold onthe world market
This report doe 'snot provide adetai led .estimate ofthe scope and
structureof the world coal market uptothe year 2000 :Commission
document -C0MC79 )322 final ,should beconsulted inthis connection .
39.'Internat iona Iforecasts ofthe evolution ofworld hard coal output
come tothe conclusion that inthe year 2000 between 350 and 700
million tcould beavailable for export ,ofwhich 200 to500 million
t would besteam coal .Inrelation toworld output inthe year
2000 ,this would beavolume of6to12%,iethe -present export rate
1)of 5%would rise considerably .In1978 ,-133 million t out ofan
output of263O million' was exported . " '
1Excluding trade within the Community ,COMECON and USA/Canada

-18-
Ifoutputdoubled,absolute exportquantities wouldtripleorsextuple
asthecasemaybe,whilethetraditional coal-exporting countries be
joinedbynewcomers totheworldmarketsuchasChina,India,Colombia
andBotswana ..Theincrease insupplyontheworldmarketwillmainly
concern steamcoal.
40.TheCommunity 'sincreased import^requirement willalsomainlyconcern
steamcoal„TheCommunity isthelargercustomer forworldmarket
steamcoal,anddespitecompetition fromJapanandotherEastAsian
countries ,itislikelytoretainthisposition inthelongterm.
•In1980theCommunity willabsorbsome66milliontofimported coal
ofallqualities ,iesome40%ofthevolumeofworldtradeincoal
Ifthisshareremains constant andifitisappliedtothevolumeof
worldtradeestimates above(350to700milliont),theresultis
importsof140to280milliontintheyear2000.Thishighlysimpli­
fiedviewof-thesituation leadstotheconclusion thatthelowerand
meanvaluesforimported coalin,Table Conpage16coul,dbemoreor
lessachieved . -
41.Forthetimebeingitisbynomeanscertainthatworldhardcoal
outputandhencethesupplyavailable ontheexportmarketwillbe
ashighasthequantities citedabove.However,theprerequisites for
thisdoatleastexist,fora.largenumberofoverseas countries are
knowntohavelargetechnically andeconomically workable reserves .
Atthesametime,thefollowing reservations mustbeexpressed
-Thenecessary extraction capacities haveyettobecreated.Depen­
dingonthetypeandlocation ofthedeposit,itwilltake5to15
yearsbeforefullproduction levelsareachieved .
Inthenarrower sensedefined above

-19-
-Highly efficient Land and seatransport facilities will have tobe
established for the exporting ofthese large quantities ofcoal .
This concern particularly the Western USA,China ,Australia and
Canada ,aswell asthe potential newcomers .
-The amount ofcapital required must not beunderestimated .The develop­
ment ofone tonne ofannual extraction capacity may becalculated as
costing 2100 to 2150 incapital investment today ,including infra­
structure and the cost oftransport tothe consumer .This would mean
that between t'14 000 and 242000 million incapital would berequired
just for the imports tothe Community cited inpoint 40.
-Such alarge increase inworld hard coal output would entail manpower
probiems .The new capacities will belocated insparcely populated
6.
areas and carefully trained staff will beneeded for many jobs inthe
mines ,particularly for deep mining .
Finally ,envi ronmenta Irequlat ions concerning coal mining ,(egthe
Surface Mining Control Acrt inthe USA )which are constantly being
tightened up>may present aconsiderable constraint .
42.The coal-importing countries ofthe Community will also face technical
and commercial problems ,asaresult ofthe estimated high import volume
(see point 27).Although market forces should not beunderestimated ,
aconsiderable amount oftime and capital will berequired "for the
appropriate measures .

Table 1
DataforanEstimate ofEnergyConsumption inthe
Community
Year 1980 1980/ço1990 1g884 2000 198&00
I.Realgrossdomestic product
Annualgrowthrates(%)
Index(1980=100)s
100+3.6
1A3+3.0
592+3.3
II.Coefficient ofelasticity 0.75 0.65 0.7
III.'Overall' primary energy
consurept ion ,
Annualgrowthrates(JO'
Index(1980=100)
mtoe(including bunkers)
ofwhich
Oil (mtoe)
Natural gas" "
Hydro,geothernal "
Lignite "
Nuclearenergy' ~"100
1031,9 ■
561,4
186,7
33,6
26,8
39,5+2.7,
,130
1340
600
250
45
30
170!+2.0
!/
159
1640
580
325
/
55 >
30
275+2.35
Hardcoal . " ■'183,9 "5, !345
l
Other , ,.>"
(Solaretc.) " 10 30
IV.Hardcoalconsumption
converted intomt(t=t)304,9 | 390i
I580
V.Sharesofthevarious
energysources (X)
Totalprimaryenergy
consumption ofwhich
Oil
Natural gas
Hydro,geothermal -
Lignite
Nuclear energy
Hsrdcoal100
54,4
18,1
3,3
2,6
3,8 1
17,8100
44,8
18,7
3,3
2,2
12,7
17,6I
i
i
j
j
|100
35,4
20,1
3,4
1,8
16,8
21,0I
Other I
!! !.0.7I
*.1^
4I• :
i i

Table2
Electricity Supplies intheCommunity
;
Year 19801980/
9019901990/
20002000
Netelectricity generation
CTWh)
Annualgrowthrate(%)1234
+4.92000
+3.52800
Heatconsumption (Kcatper
KWhnet) 2410 2350 2300
,Grossenergyequivalent of
netelectricity generalCmtoe ) 295j470 | 640
Sourcesused(mtoe):^ I
■■'■ I r
Hydroandgeothermat energy 30 33
!40
Lignite . . I 26 28 30
Petroleum products "69 70 35,
Natural gas .28 28 15
Nuclearenergy j» 170:|/
■275
Hardcoal . , 95•130 320
Other!■8 11I'15

/ ' .
e<^Coal Balanco for the Corrimiirii tyfor
(Patent fuel anio^ke converted into coal )
(Estimate )
1 [Fel.Rep.
i'fGermai ",France Italy!;other-
I~in!n)
Medium |Luxem­
-Í£J£S£Unit ei
Yipt9l .Ireland .IDenmark -0O!iJ!'.U -
.Kitv
ivii '
1:.r.u.ij.tii from oth^r counlrlee
from ,thir.l countries\ 93,3
1,8
7.019,5
9,4
21,32,7
11,71,7
4,98,1
5.1
5.23,1
0,4122,5
j0,4
I .5,7.0,1
0,2
0,6
I'1,0
8,9243,5
25,4 -
65,7
ToUl • i1ic:,i . I50,2 II14,4 j-■é ■ 118,4 3,5 |i:i,6 |0,9 9,9 |334,6
OliUli;v.::tockfi
uVl.lv . into the Community
i'xjj«>r'-.;U)thirlcountriesI +2,5
20,8
3,4-0,8
1,0
0,5 0.70,7
0,2-0,2
-0,6
0>6+1,0
2,3
1,0-0,4 +2,1
25,4
6,4
consumption 80,4 47,9 |13,7 5,7 17,0 3,5 126,3
y0,9 19,5 I|304,9
Po.i<!i "i;l,at ioitn , ,
• •
iituuliriJufitr,v _.
Otlier inluatries (l)
Eki-nçotio huating _
C';li«;r. '' •''.44,5
25,2
5,1
5»1
.0,8-25,0
14,6
4,4
4,44,3
7,9
0,8
0,42,3
2,8
0,5
r*5,0
8,3
2,2
1,83,.5.|90.1
11.2
8,3
16.3
Mm0,1
0,1
0,78,4
ο·1,;
0,9 "
0,1179,7
73,6
22,3
'28,8
0,8
fit'>1:i»i'ionldifference-0,3 -0,5 +0,3 +0,1 -0,3lo +0,4 ίο ίο I-0,3
.(l).Inolu lini?thecoal induetry 'sown consumption

Tabic 4
Aggregated Coal Balance fortheCommunity for 1973
("atent fuel anicoke converted into coal) mt(t=t)
^ed. Hop . IifOfrni:>n"lFrance ]11aly |hlether -
Il.'it !^3 iBelgium .Luxo:n -
bourft _United ..i
Kinr-lom |Ireland ,'i)en:nark
t. iCcr-i.u -
nity
tii/f!
IfnipInfrom otho.r Community countries
liMjifii Ljfrom third countries103,7
3,0
5.525,7
11,9
5,43,1
8,71,6
1,9
2,98,8
5,2
3,64,5130,2
0,6
1,40,0
0,2
0,6 3,0270,2
31,2
31,1
Tului. II.! I!■<■«<
113,0 I43,0 I11,8 6,6 17,6 •4,5
–13?,? I0,8
I■■■■m■■ iM iI[3,0 |332,5
Cliaiifjco instocks ,
libliverit::i into tlm' Community
Kxports tothird countries+3,2
23,1
4,9+3,6
2,0
0,4+0,1'
0,8+0,3
2,2+1,4
0,7
0,3
L+4,3
2,8
0,9412,9
30,8
7,3
Irtfc /iirt]coiiuuinption . 83^2 44,2 11,1 4,7 18,0 4,5 13?,8 0,8 j3,0 ■j307,3
Power stations
Steel industry
.• /'\Oliu.r Industrie a(1)
DonitbBtic heating'
Other ,•.41,0
28,2
7,5
9.5
2.612,4
19,0
5,3
8,6.0,6
7,9
1,3
1,0
0,20,7
3,4
0,4
0,5 *2,8
10,5
1,7 ,
3,44,579,5
16,7
12,0
23,9
0,10,0
0,73,0 j
0,0140,0
.90,2'
28,2
47,6
2,9
Statistical differ ;v. 1! -0,6 -1,1 +0,1 -0,3 -0,4 -0 +0,6 jI+0,1 io I-1,6
(l)Including thecoal industry 'sownconsumption

Table 5
CoalConsumption intheCommunity
mtoe mt<t=t)1
Î980 1990 2000 1980 |1990 2000
Powerstations 102.63 130 230179.7 j230400|
Steelindustry 47.8 55 58 73.6 85 90
Otherindustry 14.5 30 35 22.3 45 55
Households ■18.7 !13L'6'.28.8 20 10
Other ,\ . 'r 0.3 16|;o.5||10l|25j
Total 183.9 235 345 304.9 390 ,580
1
1toe=51.75tCt.=t)ofpowerstationcoalor1.54t(t=t)ofothercoal;'
figures roundedoff.<
Including forgasification andliquefaction purposes .
^Including changesin.stocksandstatistical differences-
Table&.
CoalSupplyintheCommunity '*
mt(t=t)
1980 1990 2000
Consumption.304.9 ■Ij .390■580 I
Changesinstocks,-exports 4.3
Imports - !'65.7' ' 127 280 I
<
Community productionofwhich:
UnitedKingdom243.5
123.6.263
140300
170
Germany v95.0 105 .115
France.18.5 - 12 .•10•
BelgiumI6*4 !.6 5