ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(81)65
Vol.1981/0020

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*
COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(81)65 final
Brussels ,24th February 1981
COMMUNITY ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES AND THE USE OFOIL
INPOWER STATIONS
(Communication from the Commission tothe Council )
1
-4
COM (81)65final

COMMUNICATION FROMTHECOMMISSION TOTHECOUNCIL
COMMUNITYELECTRICITY SUPPLIES ANDTHEUSEOFOIL
INPOWERSTATIONS
I.INTRODUCTION
1.MemberStatesforeseeagrowthinelectricity consumption between1979
and1990of4.3%p.a.corresponding toaneconomicgrowthof
3.1-3.2 %p.a.
2.IfMemberStates 1forecastsofnuclearandsolidfuelcapacitycould.
beachieved,itwouldbepossibletoprovideover75%ofprimaryenergy
requirements forelectricity productionin1990fromthesetwosources
andtheCouncilguidelinesofJune1980(70-75%)wouldbeattained.
3.Ifelectricity demandweretogrowbylessthan4.3%p.a.alikely
consequence would(unfortunately )beareductionintherateofordering
ofnewcoal-fired powerstationsandafailuretoachievenucleartargets.
Itisunlikelythatpowerstationoilconsumption wouldbemuchlower
in1990.Sotheconclusions ofthispaperwouldstillapply.Ifhowever
electricity demandrisesaboveforecasts,thepaper'sconclusions would
besubstantially re-inforced .
II.THENUCLEAR PROGRAMME
4.MemberStatesnowforecastthatsome125GWofnuclearpowerstation
capacitywillbeinoperationbytheendof1990,incomparisonwith
33GWinDecember1980.TheCommissionbelievesonaninitialassess­
mentthatasubstantialriskexiststhatactualnuclearcapacityin1990
willbebelow100GW.AnanalysisofthenuclearprogrammeisinAnnex1to
thispaper.
5.TheCommunitypaysahighpricefordelaysinnuclearprogrammes :
-oil-producedelectricitycosts50%morethannuclearelectricity(*);
-oilmostlymeansadverseforeignexchangecosts(adelayinbringinginto
operation 1GWofnuclearplantmayleadtoaneedforupto1.3m.t.o.e.
ofoilinayear(**))../..
(1)ElectricityconsumptionintheCommunity(EUR9)grewasfollows:
1970-1973 :6.3%p.a.
1974-1980 :3.2%p.a.
(*)onbaseloadcomparison
(**)whichatpresentwillcost315millionU.S.dollars

2.
6.Inordertofacilitate publicacceptance ofnuclearinvestment theCommission
willcontinuetoensuretheapplication oftheArticlesoftheEuratomTreaty
dealingwithhealthprotection;itwillpursueresearchanddevelopment in
thenuclearfield,especially thestorageofnuclearwaste,bothatthe
JointResearchCentreandthroughcontractresearch;andingeneralitwill
increasethecoherenceofallitsactionsonnuclearsafety.
III.CONVENTIONAL POWERSTATIONS
7.Newcoal-fired powerstationsarenowtheprincipalconventional method
ofmeetingthegrowingdemandforelectricity .Solidfuelpowerstation
capacityisexpectedtogrowfromsome112GWin1980toabout156GW
in1990.Itisnolongereconomictobuildnewoil-firedornaturalgas
powerstations.Theirconstruction isinanycaserestricted byCouncil
directives adoptedin1975.Furthermore,mostsuitablesitesforhydro­
electricpowerplanthavealreadybeendeveloped .Annex2and3ofthis
papergiveforecastsforconventional powerstationcapacityandfuel
useintheCommunityin.1990.
8.TheCommission believesthatitisvitalthateveryMemberStateshould
makeafurtherre-examination ofthedetailedrequirements forsolid
fuelelectricity production capacityand,inparticular,theamountof
newplanttobeorderedandthecasefor,andeconomicsof,conversion
tosolidfuelofexistingoil-basedplant.Therearepotentialinvestments
inthisfieldwhich,althoughstrategically desirable,aredifficultto
justifyonthebasisoftraditional economicandcommercialcriteria.
Measuresneedtobetakentoensurethatthenecessaryinvestment is
madeongroundsofenergystrategy.
IV.OILCONSUMPTION
9.Consumption ofoilinpowerstations,whichin1979wassome67million
t.o.e.,islikelytorisetosome71m.t.o.e.in1985andmaynotbe
muchlessin1990thanatpresent.Thisisbecausenewplantordered
beforethe1975directiveonoilpowerstationsisnowcomingintouse.
./

3.
10.Thegreatestcauseforconcernoncurrentestimatesofelectricity
generationpatternsin1990istobefoundinItaly,theNetherlands$nd
Ireland(seeAnnex3).Aworryinglevelofdependenceonoilforelectricity
generationisevident;thedisadvantage tothesethreeMemberStatesin
increasedcostofelectricity,attributabletothisrelianceonoil,will
besevere.Thelongtermaimshouldbetoachievelessthan10%
dependenceonoilfortheproductionofelectricitysinceifoilsupplies
becamecriticallydifficultashortfallofupto10%forelectricity
couldbesustainable .
V.CONCLUSIONS
11.Useofoilforelectricityproductioninthe1980'swillbetoohigh.
Itisregrettablytruethatmuchofthepastheavyinvestmentinoil-
fuelledpowerstationsmustnowberegardedaswastedinvestment.To
continuetorelyuponoilformorethanasmallpercentageofelectricity
generationatbestperpetuates highelectricity costs;atworstitrisks
inabilitytomeetelectricity demandshouldoilshortagesdevelop.
Itwouldbeprudentindividually andcollectively toaimassoonas
possibleatlessthan10%dependence onoilfortheproductionof
electricity .
12-Unlessurgentanddeterminedmeasuresaretaken,considerable cause
forconcernexistsoverthelikelydependencein1990,inparticular,
ofIreland,ItalyandtheNetherlands onoilforelectricitygeneration;
thecostofelectricity inthesecountrieswillaccordingly besignif­
icantlyhigherthanisdesirableandsecurityofsupplywillbevulnerable.
13.Whennuclearcapacitycanbe.constructed,itprovidesbyaclearmargin
themosteconomicmeansofbase-loadelectricity productionperkWh
(saveforafewcaseswhereincreasedrecoursetohydro-electric or
ligniteplantisavailable).ExceptforFrance,theMemberStateswhich
alreadyhavenuclearpowerstationsneedtoensureatimelyincrease
intherateoforderingnuclearplantwithinthe'nextthreeyears,
./

4.
sothatthecurrentforecastsfor1990maybeachievedandpreferably
exceeded.ThoseMemberStateswhichdonothaveanuclearprogrammeshould
considerthecaseforachangeofpolicyassoonaspossible.
14.MemberStatesshouldreconsider,andkeepunderconstantreview,the
conversionofexistingoil-burningplanttocoalwherevertechnically
feasible,andtheorderingofnewsolid-fuelburningplantasearlyas
possible.NewstudiesshouldbeputinhandatnationalandCommunity
levelonthecaseforadvanceorderingofnuclearandcoal-firedplant
inanticipation ofelectricity demandgrowingbeyondlevelsalready
forecast.Ifeconomicactivitytookanupturninthenextfewyears,
thecorresponding increaseofelectricity demandwouldinmanycases
mainlybemetbyincreasingoilgeneratedelectricity production.
15.Freshconsideration shouldbegiventoextendinginter-connection within
theCommunityofelectricalnetworks,particularly wherethiswould
helpalleviatetheheavyrelianceinpartsoftheCommunityonoilfor
electricityproduction.Thepossibilities offurtherpenetration of
non-oilgeneratedelectricity insubstitution forapplications whereoil
ispresentlyusedshouldalsobestudied.
16.MemberStatesshouldconsiderindetail,individually andtogetherwith
theCommission,thenatureofallobstaclestotheachievement of
theseaims.ThefurtheractionrequiredatCommunitylevelshould
beconsideredinthecontextoftheoverallreviewofenergyprogrammes
andinvestment .

ANNEX 1
CURRENTPLANSANDPROSPECTS FORTHEDEVELOPMENT OFNUCLEARPOWERSTATION
CAPACITYINTHECOMMUNITY
I.THEPROGRAMME
1.ThecurrentpositionandestimatesfornuclearcapacityinMemberStates
areasfollows:
GW(net)
CountrySituation30.9.80(1)Situationend-1990
In
serviceUnder
:oiistruc-
tionFirm
ordersMemberStates'
forecasts (2)
Germany(F.R.)8,612,0-30,0
Belgium 1,73,8- 6,8
France 12,633,04,8 64,5
Italy 1,42,02,0 7,8
Netherlands 0,5- - 0,5
UnitedKingdom 6,56,5-14,8
Greece- - - 0,6
COMMUNITY 31,357,36,8 125,0
(1)Source:Information fromMemberStates
(2)Source:Dataon1990EnergyProgrammessubmittedtothe
Commission,AugusttoOctober1980
2.Asshown,some57GWofnuclearpowerstationcapacityisunder
construction intheCommunityandafurther6,8GWhasbeenordered.
Itisclearthatonarealisticviewofcurrentconstruction times,
sitingdifficulties,andauthorisation delays,afurther30GWmust
befirmlyorderedquicklysothatworkcanbeginonsiteinorbefore
1983;onlyinthiswaywillaprogrammeofupto125GWinoperation
by1990beachieved.

3.WhilstMemberStatesanticipate anuclearproductioncapacityof
125GWinoperationbytheendof1990,theCommissionbelieveson
aninitialassessmentthatasubstantial riskexiststhatactual
achievement willnotreachthislevelandcouldbebelow100GW.
ThesituationineachMemberStateissummarisedinthefollowing
paragraphs .
II.PLANSANDPROSPECTS INTHEMEMBERSTATES
FederalRepublicofGermany
4.NofirmdecisionshavesofarbeentakeninGermanyconcerningthe
nuclearcapacitycurrentlyprojected.Suchdecisionsaredependenton
theoutcomeofcurrentdiscussions onfutureenergypolicywhichare
attemptingtotakeaccountofeconomic,ecological andsocialfactors.
5.Forecastsofnuclearpowerstationcapacityhavebeenprogressively
loweredinrecentyearsandsomethingclosetoadefactomoratorium
onfurtherorderingofnewstationshasexisted.
6.Newpoliticaldetermination willbeneededatfederalandlanderlevel
tocarrythroughaprogrammeof30GWintheperiodto1990.
Belgium
7.Thenuclearprogrammeprovidesforatotalof5,450MWinoperation
by1984.AwhitepaperbytheMinistryofEconomicAffairshassuggested
thattwoadditional powerstationsof1000MWeachmaybeconstructed by
theyears1989and1991.DiscussioninParliamentisenvisaged,before
afirmdecisionistaken.TheGovernment hasineffecthoweverpostponed

3.
authorisation ofthisadditionalplantandrealdifficulties canbe
anticipated inreachingagreementonitstimelyauthorisation .
France
8.Francesnuclearprogrammecurrentlyprovidesfortheorderingofsome5GW
peryear.In198032unitsof900MWeachand10unitsof1300MWeach
wereunderconstruction,andfromthisprogrammesome6400MWwasbrought
intoinitialoperationin1980.Inaddition,theFastBreederReactorat
Creys-Melvi Ile,constructed incollaboration withGermany(F.R.)andItaly,
shouldbecommissioned in1983.Thistypeofstationisexpected,after1985,
tobeorderedatthepossiblerateof2unitsof1300MWeacheverythree
years.
9.Theresultofthisprogrammeisexpectedtobethat,by1985,some55%
ofelectricity productionwillbefromnuclearplant,risingto75%
bytheyear1990.
10.Ifnuclearproductionfallsbelowitsforecastlevelof73milliont.o.e.,
themainexplanationwillbethatannualgrowthofdemandforelectricity
provestobelowerthanisnowanticipated .Itwillnotmean
thatoilconsumption inpowerstationswillriseincompensation .
Italy
11.Continuedoppositionatregionalandlocalcommuneleveltotheacceptance
ordesignationofanypowerstationsites,butparticularly fornuclear
powerstations,hadledtheItalianGovernmenttomodifyitspowerstation
programmebyreducing,inthemediumterm,thenumberofnuclearunits
andprovidingforanincreasedrecoursetocoal.Thechoiceofcoalhas
beennecessaryinordertocoverthecapacitydeficitsarisingfrom
accumulateddelaysinthenuclearprogramme,eventhoughcoaldoesnot
offerthesameeconomicadvantagesasnuclear.
12.Againstthisbackground,themostfavourablehypothesis(i.e.supposing
theimmediateresolutionofsitingproblems)isthat10GWofnuclear
capacityoverandabovethatalreadyinserviceorunder
./

4.
construction couldbeinserviceby1990orshortlyafter(3unitsin1988,
4in1989and3inorafter1990).
13.However,oppositionpersistsanditmustbeexpectedthattheregularity
oftheprogrammemaybedisturbed.Suchcontinueddisturbance wouldaggravate
thecurrentproblemofthelevelofavailableproductioncapacity,particul­
arlyinthemediumterm.
Furthermore,workontheonlypowerstationunderconstruction wasdelayed
bylegalaction.TheCommissiondoesnotbelievethatfurthernuclearplant
canbeauthorisedandsuccessfully broughtintooperationby1990,unless
verydeterminedstepsaretakeninthenationalinteresttoovercomethe
difficulties raisedbylocalandregionalauthorities andbyenvironmentalists .
Similardifficulties willalsoneedtobeovercomeforcoalfiredpowerstations.
Netherlands
14.TheNetherlands GovernmenthaspublishedaDiscussion Note"EnergyPolicy-
Part3-FuelinputtoPowerStations"asaproposaltoParliament.This
documentcoverstheprocedures whichwilldeterminewhethernewnuclear
plantcanbeenvisagedbefore1990.TheGovernmenthopestotakeadecision,
by1983attheearliest,afteratwo-yearpublicdebateonnuclearenergy
startingin1931,toconstruct 3ouclearpowerstationsof1000MWeach
inthenext10years.Fivepossiblesiteshavebeenidentified.
UnitedKingdom
15.Construction oftwoAGRstationsatHeyshamancLTorness (1250MWeach)
hasbeenauthorized bytheU.K.Government andworkontheseisinprogress.
TheGovernment hasacceptedadvicethatatleastonenewnuclear
powerstationorderayearfor10yearsisareasonableprospectagainst
whichthenuclec."andpowerplantindustries canplan.
16.TheGovernmenthasalsomadeclearitswishthat,subjecttothenecessary
consentsandsafetyclearances,aPWRshouldbethenextnuclearpowerstation
orderafterthetwoAGRstations.Construction ofthiscouldbeginonsite
(Sizewell,Suffolk)in1983.Apublicenquiryin1982isanticipated.
./..

3
5.
17.Theprogrammefrom1982thereforecouldamounttosome15000MW.
DecisionsonthechoiceofreactorforLaterordersaretobetakenin
duecourse.
18.Theforecastgrowthofelectricity demandinthemediumtermishowever
nowsolowthaturgencytoimplementtheprogrammemayrecede.Completion
oftheproposedP.W.R.stationofsome1100MWbytheendof1990is
becominganincreasingly ambitiousobjective.
Ireland
19.TheGovernmentiscurrentlystudyingapossiblenuclearprogrammeand
anuclearpowerstationofsome650MWhasbeenproposedatCarnsorePoint.
AGovernmentInter-Departmental Committeetoassesstheproposalfromthe
environmental,financialandenergyviewpoints hasbeenappointedbuthas
notyetreported.ThereafteritisintendedtoholdaTribunalofInquiry.
Evenifapproved,itisnotanticipatedthatanuclearpowerstation
willbeinservicebefore1993/4.
Luxembourg
20.TherearenoproposalsfornuclearplantinLuxembourg,whereinanycase
three-quarters ofelectricity consumptionisimported.
Denmark
21.Denmarkhasnonuclearprogrammeand,althoughtheoptionhasnotbeen
ruledout,thepoliticalclimateisatpresentsuchthatnodecisionon
nucleardevelopment seemslikelyinthenearfuture.
Greece
22.Theelectricityplanprovidesfora600MWnuclearplantwhichisnot
nowexpectedtobeinoperationbefore1989.Althoughatleasttwo
potentialsiteshavebeenidentified,firmdecisionsonsitingand
reactortypearenotexpectedbefore1982.Nolicensingprocedure
currentlyexists.Itmustbeopentodoubtwhethernuclearplantwillbe
inserviceby1990.

III.FINANCING OFNUCLEARCONSTRUCTION
23.Despitetherelativelyhighcapitalcostsofnuclearconstruction ,the
economicsofelectricityproductionfromnuclearplantaresofavourable
thattherearefewfinancialobstaclestothecontinued ,expansionof
nuclearcapacity.TheexistenceoftheEuratomloanschemehasproveda
usefulmethodofassistingthefinancingofnuclearinvestmentandthe
Commission doesnotconsiderthatfurtherfinancialinstruments are
warrantedatthepresenttime.
IV.PUBLICATTITUDE TOWARDSNUCLEARPOWER
24.Publicapprehension aboutthesafetyaspectsofnuclearpowerhasbeen
thegreatestsinglefactorinachievingalowergrowthofnuclearcapacity
thanenergyandeconomicconsiderations wouldhavedictated.TheCommunity
asawholepaysahighpricefordelaysinnuclearconstruction :
-oilgeneratedelectricitycostsmuchmorethannuclear
-delayedinvestmentsufferscostinflation,
-oilmostlymeansadverseforeignexchangecosts(every1GWofnuclear
cansavesome1.3Mtofoilperyearcostingsome^315M/year).
25.Theseeconomicfactorstogetherwiththeadversepoliticalconsequences
ofavoidabledependenceuponimportedoilneedtobebroughtoutinpublic
discussion .
V.NUCLEARPLANTMANUFACTURING CAPACITY
26.Currentnuclearplantmanufacturing andindustrialcapacityinthe
Communityisgreatlyinexcessofforecastrequirements fornewnuclear
powerstationsintheCommunity.Thisconstruction capabilitywithits
relatedspecialisedtechnicalandindustrialskillswillsufferifa
steadyflowofordersisnotavailable.
(l)Ifanynewoil-firedpowerstationswerebroughtintoserviceinthe
mid-^SO^intheCommunitytheiraverageelectricityproductioncost
perKwhisestimatedtobe64$greaterthanthatfromnewnuclearplant,
underbase-loadconditions.Theaverageelectricityproductioncostper
Kwhfromnewcoal-firedpowerstationsbroughtintooperationinlj?85is
similarlyestimatedat42i°higherthanfromnuclearplant.

ANNEX2(Sheetl)
(Revised4.2.81)
SOLIDFUELBURNINGELECTRICITY PRODUCTION CAPACITY
INTHECOMMUNITY
SITUATION ANDFORECASTS FOR1990
(Asat30September1980)
GW(net)
inserviceD FINL L Β UKIRL DKGTOTAL
40.512.24.41.30.12.144.70.54.12.0111.9
underconstruction 6.21.82.00.9-0.61.90.60.71.215.9
firmorders ' 1.70.61.8 - - - -0.6 -0.65.3
(l)forecastin1990 53.713.124.23.00.12.842.92.18.75.9156.5
Note:Dataisforhardcoal,ligniteandpeat"burningplant.Singleordual-firing.
(l)Thisforecastincludesplantto"beconvertedorreconvertedtosolidfuelburningandplantnotyetordered

ANNEX2(Sheet2)
NON-NUCLEAR ANDNONSOLIDFUELPOWERSTATIONCAPACITYINTHECOMMUNITY
Asatend-1979^"^
GW(net)
DΡIKL L ΒUKIrl Den GTotal
Hydro^6,419,116,0 -1,20,52,50,5-1,447,6
Oil^14,711,314,6.1,1 -2,118,11,72,6 1,467,6
Other^11,5 ;5,68,514,10,23,9-0,2- ■ -44,0
(5)Asatend-1990^'
Hydro^7,525,924,1-1,21,34,10,5 -4,3 68,9
Oil^15,010,921,70,4-1,724,52,31,7 1,2 79,4
Other^14,06,210,514,50,23,41,20,4- - 50,4
(1)Source:EstimationstrytheCommission'sservices
(2)Includingpumpedstorageandgeothermal
(3)Singlefiring
(4)Otherplantwithoutsolidfuelcapability
(5)Source:MemberStates'dataonenergyprogrammesandestimationsbytheCommission'sservices

TABLE 1-OIL CONSUMPTION FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION -Mtoe ANNEX .
EUR 10 D F I NL Β L UK IRL DK G
1973 76,2 9,9 15,6 19,5 1/7 5,1 0,1 18,7 1,2 2,9 1,5
1979 66,8 6,5 11,8 22,0 4,8 4,0 0,05 12,1 1,7 1,9 2,0
1985 69,7 /71,2 6,8 4,9 34,4 5,4 /6,2 2,7/0,9-10,4 /12,8 2,3 1,6 1,3
1990 57,2 /63,7 4,9 4,0 23,9 /29,4 6,2/6,0 2,4 10,4 /11,6 2,6 1,8 1,0
TABLE(*)-SHARE OFOIL INENERGY INPUTS FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION -%
1979 24 8 27 68 34 33 15 17 65 34 39
1985 20 7 7 71 35/38 19/6- 14 59 22 15
1990 14/15 4 4 40/45 38/33 14 13/14 50 20 8
TABLE 3-SHARE OFNUCLEAR +SOLID FUELS INENERGY INPUTS ***FORELECTRICITY PRODUCTION -%
1979 60 72 56 12 14 50 39 82 25 66 55
1985 68 79 83 16 27/25 67/69 43 85/82 23 78 81
1990 77 85 89 48/44 33/41 73 43 86 37 80 88
Notes :Sources :1973 and 1979 figures :EUROSTAT
1985 and1990 figures :1980 National programmes review ,including 125GWofnuclear plant in1990
(*) :Primary hydro-electric energy included inenergy inputs at3600 Kjoules (860Kcal.) /kWh