EN    EN EN 
 
EN    EN  COMMISSION OF THE E UROPEAN COMMUNITIES 
Brussels, 11.6.2008 
SEC(2008) 2012 final 
  
Recommendation for a 
COUNCIL OPINION 
On the updated convergence programme of Poland, 2007-2010 
(presented by the Commission) 
 
EN 2   EN EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM  
1. G ENERAL BACKGROUND  
The Stability and Growth Pact is based on th e objective of sound government finances as a 
means of strengthening the conditions for price stability and for strong  sustainable growth 
conducive to employment creation. The 2005 reform  of the Pact acknowl edged its usefulness 
in anchoring fiscal discipline but sought to strengthen its effectiveness and economic 
underpinnings as well as to safeguard the sustaina bility of the public fi nances in the long run. 
Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on the streng thening of the survei llance of budgetary 
positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies1, which is part of the 
Stability and Growth Pact, sti pulates that each Member State has to submit, to the Council 
and the Commission, a stability or convergence programme and annual updates thereof. Member States that have already adopted th e single currency submit (updated) stability 
programmes and Member States that have not yet adopted it submit (updated) convergence 
programmes. The first convergence programme  of Poland was submitted in May 2004. In 
accordance with the Regulation, the Council delivered an opinion on it on 5 July 2004 on the 
basis of a recommendation from the Commi ssion and after having consulted the Economic 
and Financial Committee. As regards updated stability and converg ence programmes, the 
regulation foresees that these are asse ssed by the Commission and examined by the 
Committee and if necessary and following the same procedure as set out above, the updated programmes may be examined by the Council. 
2. B
ACKGROUND FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE UPDATED PROGRAMME  
The Commission has examined the most recent update of the convergence programme of 
Poland, submitted on 26 March 2008, and is recommending a Council opinion on it (see box for the main points covered by the assessment). 
In order to set the scene against which the budgetary strategy in the updated convergence 
programme is assessed, the follo wing paragraphs summarise: 
(1) the country’s position under the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact 
(excessive deficit procedure); 
(2) the most recent assessment of the country’s position under the preventive arm of the 
Stability and Growth Pact (summary of th e Council opinion on the previous update of 
the convergence programme); 
(3) the May 2008 update of the country-specifi c broad economic policy guidelines in the 
area of budget ary policies;  
(4) the Commission’s assessment of the Oc tober 2007 implementation report of the 
national reform programme. 
                                                
 
1 OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1. Regulation as amended by Regulation (EC) No 1055/2005 (OJ L 174, 
7.7.2005, p. 1). The documents referred to in this text are available at: 
 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm. 
 
EN 3   EN 2.1. The excessive deficit procedure for Poland 
On 5 July 2004 the Council adopted a decision stat ing, in accordance with Article 104(6), that 
Poland had an excessive deficit, based on a ge neral government defic it of 4.1% of GDP in 
2003. At the same time, the Council issued re commendations, under Article 104(7), to correct 
the excessive deficit. In particular, Poland wa s recommended to take action in a medium-term 
framework in order to bring the deficit be low 3% of GDP by 2007 in a credible and 
sustainable manner, in line with th e Council opinion on the May 2004 convergence 
programme. In November 2006, the Council decide d that action taken until then by the Polish 
authorities was inadequate. In  February 2007, the Council issued new recommendations 
confirming the 2007 deadline for the correction. The Polish authorities were recommended to 
ensure an improvement of the structural ba lance by at least 0.5 perc entage point of GDP 
between 2006 and 2007. In November 2007, the Commission issued a communication to the 
Council, in which the action ta ken by Poland in response to the Council recommendation was 
found consistent with the r ecommendation. However, as far as 2008 and 2009 were 
concerned, the Commission expre ssed concern about the durabil ity of the correction of the 
excessive deficit without which the excessive deficit procedure cannot be abrogated. Both the 
Commission and the Council invited the Polish au thorities to submit as soon as possible an 
updated convergence programme describing their medium-term strategy for the whole 
legislature, consistent with a durable correction of the excessi ve deficit and further progress 
towards the medium-term objective. 
Together with this recommenda tion for a Council opinion, the Commission recommends the 
Council to decide to abrogate the excessive de ficit procedure for Poland because, from an 
overall assessment, it follows that the excessive deficit situation in Poland has been corrected. The 2007 general government deficit outturn is 2.0% of GDP, below the 3% of GDP 
reference value. The Commission services’ sp ring 2008 forecast indicates that the deficit 
should remain below the 3% of GDP reference value in 2008 and 2009. 
2.2. The assessment in the Council opinion on the previous update 
In its opinion of 27 February 2007, the Council summarised its assessment of the previous 
update of the convergence programme, cove ring the period 2006-2009, as follows. “The 
programme envisages a correction of the excessi ve deficit by 2007, referr ing to the provision 
of Article 2(7) of Council Regulation (EC) No  1467/97, but the Council recalls that the action 
taken so far does not appear adequate and the pl anned measures appear insufficient to achieve 
that result. While in subsequent years the pr ogramme envisages to make appropriate progress 
towards the MTO in a context of  strong growth prospects, ther e are important risks to the 
achievement of the budgetary targets and the durability of the adjustment.”  
Taking into account a new recommendation addr essed to Poland to correct the excessive 
deficit adopted by the Council on 27 February 2007 under Article  104(7) of the Treaty, the 
Council invited Poland to “(i) ensure the corr ection of the excessive deficit by 2007 in line 
with the new recommendation under Article 104(7); (ii) taking ad vantage of the good 
economic times, using any extra revenue for deficit reduction, strengthen the pace of adjustment towards the MTO after the planne d correction of the ex cessive deficit, by 
specifying and implementing the additional measures, especially on the expenditure side, that are necessary to achieve the envisaged adjustme nt; (iii) safeguard the results of the pension 
reform”. 
 
EN 4   EN 2.3. May 2008 update of the country-specific broad economic policy guidelines in the 
area of budgetary policies 
On 14 May 2008, the Council adopted a recomme ndation on the 2008 update of the broad 
guidelines for the economic policies of the Member States and th e Community and on the 
implementation of Member States' employment policies2. In the area of budgetary policies, 
Poland was recommended to “strengthen the fis cal consolidation and supplement the nominal 
state budget deficit ‘anchor’ (defic it ceiling) with further mechanisms to enhance control over 
expenditure”.  
2.4. The Commission assessment of the Octo ber 2007 implementation report of the 
national reform programme 
On 11 December 2007, the Commission adopted its Strategic Report on the renewed Lisbon 
strategy for growth and jobs, which incl udes an assessment of the October 2007 
implementation report of Pola nd’s national reform programme3 and is summarised as follows. 
Poland’s national reform programme identified as key challenges the consolidation and better 
management of public finances, development of  entrepreneurship, increased innovation by 
companies; upgrading and developing infrastruc ture, ensuring a competitive environment in 
networks sectors, creating and sustaining jobs and reducing unemployment; and improving 
the adaptability of workers and enterprises. 
The Commission’s assessment was that Poland ha s made limited progress in implementing its 
National Reform Programme over the 2005-2007 period.  
Against the background of strengths and weaknesses identified and the background of 
progress made, the Commission recommended that Poland was recommended to take action 
in the areas of: fiscal consolidation (mechanis ms of expenditure control); competition in 
network industries; public research and support to private R&D; flexicurity, including active 
labour market policy, social benef its, lifelong learning and education. 
In addition, Poland is encourag ed to also focus on the areas of: transport infrastructure; 
business registration process; e-government; trans position of internal market legislation; and 
childcare facilities. 
Based on the Commission Strategic Report, the Council adopted r ecommendations on the 
2008 update of the broad guidelines for the economic policies for the Member States, including Poland, on 14 May 2008. 
                                                
 
2 OJ L 139, 29.5.2008, p. 57. 
3 Communication from the Commission to the European Council, “Strategic report on the renewed 
Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs: launching the new cycle (2008-2010)” - COM(2007) 803, 
11.12.2007. 
 
EN 5   EN  
Box: Main points covered by the assessment  
As required by Article 5(1) (for stability programm es) and Article 9(1) (fo r convergence programmes) 
of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97, th e assessment covers the following points: 
• whether the economic assumptions on which the programme is based are plausible; 
• the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) pres ented by the Member State and whether the 
adjustment path towards it is appropriate; 
• whether measures being taken and/or proposed to r espect that adjustment path are sufficient to 
achieve the MTO over the cycle; 
• when assessing the adjustment path towards the MTO, whether a higher adjustment effort is made 
in economic good times, whereas the effort may be  more limited in economic bad times, and, for 
euro-area and ERM II Member States, whether th e Member State pursues an annual improvement 
of the cyclically-adjusted balance, net of one-off and other temporary measures, of 0.5% of GDP as 
a benchmark to meet its MTO; 
• when defining the adjustment path  to the MTO (for Member States that have not yet reached it) or 
allowing a temporary deviation from the MTO (for Member States that have), the implementation 
of major structural reforms which have direct l ong-term cost-saving effects (including by raising 
potential growth) and therefore a verifiable imp act on the long-term sustainability of public 
finances (subject to the condition that an appropriat e safety margin with respect to the 3% of GDP 
reference value is preserved and that the budgeta ry position is expected to return to the MTO 
within the programme period), with special atte ntion for pension reforms introducing a multi-pillar 
system that includes a mandatory, fully-funded pillar; 
• whether the economic policies of the Member Stat e are consistent with the broad economic policy 
guidelines. 
The plausibility of the programme’s macroeconom ic assumptions is assessed by reference to the 
Commission services’ spring 2008 forecast, using al so the commonly agreed  methodology for the 
estimation of potential output and cyclically-adjusted balances. 
The assessment also examines: 
• the evolution of the debt ratio and the outlook for the long-term sustainability of the public 
finances, which should be given “sufficient atten tion in the surveillance of budgetary positions” 
according to the Council report of 20 March 2005 on “Improving the implementation of the 
Stability and Growth Pact”. A Commission Co mmunication of 12 October 2006 sets out the 
approach to the assessment of long-term sustainability4; 
• the degree of consistency with th e national reform programme, subm itted by Member States in the 
context of the Lisbon strategy for growth and j obs, and its October 2007 im plementation report. In 
its cover note of 7 June 2005 to the European Council on the broad economic policy guidelines for 
the period 2005-2008, the ECOFIN Council stated that the national reform programmes should be 
consistent with the stabilit y and convergence programmes;  
• compliance with the code of conduct5, which inter alia prescribes a common structure and set of 
data tables for the stability and convergence programmes.   
                                                 
4 Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament, “The long-term 
sustainability of public finances in the EU” - COM(2006) 574, 12.10.2006 - and European Commission, 
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affair s (2006), “The long-term sustainability of public 
finances in the European Union”, European Economy No 4/2006. 
5 “Specifications on the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and guidelines on the format 
and content of stability and convergence programmes”, endorsed by the ECOFIN Council of 11 
October 2005. 
 
EN 6   EN Recommendation for a 
COUNCIL OPINION 
 
On the updated convergence programme of Poland,  2007-2010 
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 
Having regard to the Treaty esta blishing the European Community, 
Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of 
the surveillance of budgetary pos itions and the surveillance and coordination of economic 
policies6, and in particular Article 9(3) thereof, 
Having regard to the recommendation of the Commission, After consulting the Economic  and Financial Committee, 
HAS DELIVERED THIS OPINION: (1) On [8 July 2008] the Council examined  the updated convergence programme of 
Poland, which covers the period 2007 to 2010
7. 
(2) Poland made recently progress in closing the gap with average EU income levels as 
real GDP growth picked up from around 4½% on average in 2003-2005 to above 6% 
in 2006-2007. The labour-intensive output grow th improved consider ably the situation 
in the labour market as unemployment dr opped from nearly 20% in 2003 to 9½% in 
2007. However, the fall in unemployment refl ects, in addition to an extraordinary 
growth in employment, a shrinking labour  force due to migration. Moreover, 
distortions of incentives to  work enhanced by significant emigration increase the 
shortage of labour in some sectors. The tightening labour market  puts pressure on 
wages impacting negatively on HICP infla tion which, after a pe riod of successful 
moderation from 2005 to the first half of 2007, picked up significan tly at the end of 
2007. Since peaking at 6¼% of GDP in 2003, th e general government deficit declined 
on average by more than 1 percentage point annually to reach 2% of GDP in 2007. In 
recent years, outturns were generally better than the targets thanks to positive growth surprises resulting in windfall revenues as  well as the incomplete execution of 
expenditure plans. Further budgetary consolid ation will hinge crucially on the reform 
                                                
 
6 OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1. Regulation as amended by Regulation (EC) No 1055/2005 (OJ L 174, 
7.7.2005, p. 1). The documents referred to in this text can be found at the following website: 
 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm. 
7 The update was submitted 16 weeks beyond the 1 Decembe r deadline set in the code  of conduct in view 
of the formation of a new government in November following the October general elections. 
 
EN 7   EN of the social transfer system (mainly early  pensions and disability benefits) and the 
increase of labour participation. 
(3) The macroeconomic scenario underlying th e programme envisages that real GDP 
growth will gradually decrease from 6.5% in 2007 to 5.2% on average over the rest of 
the programme period. Assessed agains t currently available information8, this scenario 
appears to be based on plau sible growth assumptions. Th e programme’s projections 
for inflation appear to be on the low side reflecting slightly favourable assumptions on 
import prices and a relatively low increas e in nominal compensation per employee. 
(4) The 2007 general government deficit outturn  was 2.0% of GDP, compared to 3.4% 
projected in the November 2006 converg ence programme. Much higher real and 
nominal GDP growth than assumed in November 2006 was the main reason, but 
expenditure was also restrained. In particul ar, high profitability of companies allowed 
for growth in subsidies to be contained, while the rapid fall in unemployment and the absence of indexation imposed by the Hausner plan
9 also curtailed growth in social 
transfers. In addition, compensation of public sector employees was lower than 
planned. Finally, government investment was lo wer than projected because of a slower 
absorption of EU funds than planned. Overal l, the expenditure-to-GDP ratio was 1.5 
percentage point lower than projected in November 2006. On the revenue side, 
revenue from indirect taxes and social contributions turn ed out better than envisaged 
in November 2006, mainly thanks to a much higher employment and wage growth. These positive surprises were offset by a lower performance of other revenue items (direct taxes due to an increase in tax brack ets). Overall, this led to a revenue ratio 
slightly below the planned one. With an impr ovement in the struct ural balance ratio by 
about 1½ percentage point, budgetary implementation in the year 2007 more than fulfilled the invitation in the Council opin ion of 27 February 2007 on the previous 
update of the convergence programme
10. 
(5) The main goal of the budgetary strategy is a durable reduction  of the structural general 
government deficit (cyclically-adjusted de ficit net of one-off and other temporary 
measures) aimed at achieving the medium -term objective (MTO) for the budgetary 
position, which is a structural deficit of 1%  of GDP, in 2011, i.e.  one year after the 
programme period. This is consistent wi th the previous convergence programme, 
which envisaged achieving the MTO “af ter 2010”. After deteriorating by 0.5 
percentage point to 2.5% of GDP in 2008, the headline deficit is planned to improve to 
1.5% by 2010. The primary balance follows a sim ilar path and is projected to increase 
from −0.2% of GDP in 2008 to 0.8% in 2010. Against the backdrop of moderating 
output growth, the changes in the structur al balance calculated according to the 
commonly agreed methodology are foreseen to be larger, with the structural deficit 
narrowing from about 2¾% of GDP in 2008 to slightly above 1% in 2010. The 
budgetary adjustment is expenditure-bas ed and back-loaded to 2009 and 2010. In 
2008, the deficit deterioration is mainly driv en by a sharp increase in the investment 
                                                 
8 The assessment takes notably in to account the Commission services  spring 2008 forecast and the 
Commission assessment of the October 2007 implementation report of the national reform programme. 
9 The most comprehensive and specific attempt at expend iture reform so far, proposed in 2003 and aimed 
at reducing public expenditure on social protection, public administration and state aids. Among other things, the Hausner plan replaced annual indexati on with an indexation af ter cumulated inflation 
exceeds 5% or every three years (whatever comes first). 
10 OJ C 72, 29.3.2007, p. 13. 
 
EN 8   EN ratio as well as a large cut in  social contributions (partly compensated by an increase 
in other revenues). In 2009-2010, the consolid ation is to be achie ved mainly through 
restraint in compensation of employees, social transfers and intermediate consumption.  The planned rate of defi cit reduction between 2007 and 2009 is lower 
than in the previous update , however the starting point (2007) and each of the new 
deficit targets of the Marc h 2008 update of the convergence  programme are better than 
the targets in the November 2006 update.The ri sks to the budgetary projections in the 
programme appear broadly balanced in 2008, but the outcomes could be worse than 
projected in the programme afterwards. The 2008 deficit target in  the programme is 
the same as in the spring 2008 forecast (2.5% of GDP). The 2008Q1 cash data for 
central budget point to a reve nue performance above the bud getary projections, but the 
programme assumes slightly higher gr owth in 2008 than in the spring 2008 
commission forecast and still mounting wage pr essure in the public sector poses a risk 
for public finances. On the other hand, hi gher inflation than assumed in the 
programme will reduce the expenditure ratio in 2008, as expenditure is predominantly 
fixed in nominal terms. However, in 2009, the higher 2008 inflation could stimulate wage growth in the public sector and lead to  higher pensions and so cial benefits than 
assumed in the programme, further exace rbated by a reform of the indexation 
mechanism which links, as from 2008, social be nefits not only to consumer prices but 
also partially to wages. While deficit-incr easing measures have already been adopted 
by parliament (personal income  tax rate reductions), offset ting measures are vague and 
their budgetary impact is uncertain (excep t for excise duty hikes related to EU 
harmonisation, which will not completely offset the personal income tax cut). If further high employment gr owth assumed by the government  is not maintained, the 
continuation of the 2006-2007 job-rich-gro wth-based budgetary consolidation after 
2008 may be difficult. On the other hand, the track record for the development of the 
general government balance is good: revenues have turned out fre quently higher than 
projected while expenditure plan s have been under-executed. 
(6) In view of this risk a ssessment, the budgetary stance  in the programme seems 
consistent with a durable correction of the excessive deficit by 2007 as recommended 
by the Council. However, the safety margin against breaching the 3% of GDP deficit limit could not be ensured within the pr ogramme period. In addition, the budgetary 
stance in the programme may not be sufficien t to ensure that the MTO is achieved by 
2011, as envisaged in the programme. As the economy enjoys favourable growth conditions, the pace of adjustment towards the MTO implied by the programme is insufficient and needs to be strengthened in  2008 to be in line w ith the Stability and 
Growth Pact. Thereafter, it should be back ed up with measures. In addition, should 
inflationary and wage pressures materialise, a tighter fiscal stance than foreseen in the 
programme would be requi red to avoid overheating. 
(7) Poland appears to be at low risk as rega rds the sustainability of public finances. 
According to the projections made in  2005 and based on the common methodology, 
the long-term budgetary impact of ageing is among the lowest in the EU. However, as 
from 2008, social benefits will be indexe d not only to consumer prices but also 
partially to wages, which will raise expenditure in the long-term. The budgetary position in 2007 with a small structural primar y deficit, despite being better than the 
starting position of the prev ious programme, constitutes a risk to sustainable public 
finances before considering the long-ter m budgetary impact of an ageing population. 
Further consolidation of public  finances, including the refo rm of the early retirement 
 
EN 9   EN (introduction of “bridge pensions” which lim it early retirement to certain difficult 
professions) as intended in th e convergence programme, woul d therefore c ontribute to 
both stimulating labour activity and employment and limiting risks to the sustainability of public finances. 
(8) The convergence programme seems to be consistent with the October 2007 
implementation report of the national re form programme. In particular, both 
programmes envisage the reform of early retirement  and disability be nefits, the reform 
of the farmers’ social fund, the hea lthcare reform, the reorganisation and 
decentralisation of public finances, th e multiannual task budgeting. The convergence 
programme does, however, not contain a qual itative assessment of the overall impact 
of the October 2007 implementation report of  the national reform programme within 
the medium-term fiscal stra tegy (discussing, e.g., the imp act on potential growth and 
employment). Though, the programme provides systematic information on the direct 
budgetary costs of the main reforms envi saged in the national reform programme. 
(9) The budgetary strategy in the convergence pr ogramme is partly consistent with the 
country-specific broad economic policy gu idelines, included in the integrated 
guidelines, in the area of budgetary policie s issued in the cont ext of the Lisbon 
strategy. While the programme envisages co ntinued fiscal consolidation, further 
mechanisms to enhance control expenditure are not mentioned. 
(10) As regards the data requirements specified  in the code of conduct for stability and 
convergence programmes, the programme ha s some gaps in the optional data. 
The overall conclusion is that, following the correction of the ge neral government deficit in 
2007 and while the deficit and the debt will rema in below the reference values of respectively 
3% and 60% of GDP, the programme envisages a deterioration of the general government 
balance by 0.5 percentage point of GDP in 2008 and a back-loaded progress towards the 
MTO in the following years in a context of  favourable growth prospects. In 2008, the 
projected structural deteriorati on by almost ½ percentage point of  GDP is not in line with the 
Stability and Growth Pact. Give n the risks to the budgetary targ ets from 2009, mainly due to a 
lack of specified measures, the MTO may not be achieved by 2011 as planned in the 
programme. Moreover, should inflationary pre ssures emerge, a tighter fiscal stance than 
foreseen in the programme woul d be required. As regards the long-term sustainability of 
public finances, Poland appears to be at low risk, but the early reti rement system is in need of 
reform. 
In view of the above assessment and the need to ensure sustainable public finances, Poland is 
invited to exploit the favourable growth condi tions to strengthen the pace of structural 
adjustment towards the MTO, in particular in or der to contain possible in flationary pressures, 
by using any extra revenue and unspent reso urces for deficit reduction in 2008 and by 
specifying and implementing measures, especial ly on the expenditure side, in the following 
years.  
 
EN 10   EN Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections 
   2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 
CP Mar 2008 6.2 6.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 
COM Apr 2008 6.2 6.5 5.3 5.0 n.a. Real GDP 
(% change) 
CP Nov 2006 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.6 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 1.3 2.6 3.5 2.9 2.5 
COM Apr 2008 1.3 2.6 4.3 3.4 n.a. HICP inflation 
(%) 
CP Nov 2006 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.5 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 0.5 1.1 0.7 −0.2 −0.9 
COM Apr 20082 0.6 1.2 0.5 −0.7 n.a. Output gap1 
(% of potential GDP) 
CP Nov 2006 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 −2.6 −2.6 −3.5 −4.2 −4.6 
COM Apr 2008 −2.5 −2.6 −2.3 −3.6 n.a. Net lending/borrowing vis-à-
vis the rest of the world 
(% of GDP) CP Nov 2006 −1.6 −1.8 −2.2 −2.7 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 −3.8 −2.0 −2.5 −2.0 −1.5 
COM Apr 2008 −3.8 −2.0 −2.5 −2.6 n.a. General government balance 
(% of GDP) 
CP Nov 2006 −3.9 −3.4 −3.1 −2.9 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 −1.1 0.2 −0.2 0.3 0.8 
COM Apr 2008 −1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 n.a. Primary balance 
(% of GDP) 
CP Nov 2006 −1.5 −1.0 −0.7 −0.6 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 −4.0 −2.4 −2.8 −1.9 −1.1 
COM Apr 2008 −4.0 −2.5 −2.7 −2.3 n.a. Cyclically-adjusted balance1 
(% of GDP) 
CP Nov 2006 −4.1 −3.6 −3.2 −3.0 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 −4.0 −2.4 −2.8 −1.9 −1.1 
COM Apr 2008 −4.0 −2.5 −2.7 −2.3 n.a. Structural balance3 
(% of GDP) CP Nov 2006 −4.1 −3.6 −3.2 −3.0 n.a. 
CP Mar 2008 47.6 44.9 44.2 43.3 42.3 
COM Apr 2008 47.6 45.2 44.5 44.1 n.a. Government gross debt 
(% of GDP) 
CP Nov 2006 48.9 50.0 50.3 50.2 n.a. 
Notes :             
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjuste d balances according to the programme s as recalculated by Commission 
services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 
2 Based on estimated potential growth  of 5.2%, 5.9%, 6.0% and 6.2% respectively in the period 2006-2009. 
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and othe r temporary measures. There are no one-off and other 
temporary measures in the most recent programme and Commission services’ autumn forecast. 
              
Source :             
Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ spring 2008 economic forecasts (COM); Commission 
services’ calculations.