EN    EN EN 
 
EN    EN  EUROPEAN COMMISSION 
Brussels, 3.8.2010 
SEC(2010) 968 final 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
 
accompagning  
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSI ON TO THE COUNCIL  
AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 
 
comprehensive report on the functi oning of the Guarantee Fund  
  
COM(2010)418 
 
EN 2   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. Organization chart of the Fund – financial flows......................................................... 3 
2. Graph 1: Guaranteed Amounts covered by the Fund (end of year) ............................. 4 3. Graph 2: Cover of defaults by Fund Res ources and recoveries (in EUR million)....... 4 
4. Graph 3: Geographical di stribution of lending operat ions by group of countries 
covered by the Fund at 31 December 2009 (% of the total outstanding amount covered, EUR 16.361 billion). ..................................................................................... 5 
5. Risk profile of the loans covered by Fund in 2006 and 2009 ...................................... 6 6. Table 1: Flows in and out of the Fund since 1994 ....................................................... 7 7. Table 2: Use of the budget line during the financial framework 2007-2013 (In EUR)8 8. Table 3: Ratio between total annual ca pital outstanding and interest due and the 
amountof the Fund ....................................................................................................... 8 
9. Projections of provisioni ng needs 2009 -2013 and beyond ......................................... 8 
 
EN 3   EN 1. ORGANIZATION CHART OF THE FUND – FINANCIAL FLOWS  
 
 
Source: GHK Consulting  
 
EN 4   EN 2. GRAPH 1: GUARANTEED AMOUNTS COVERED BY THE FUND (END OF YEAR ) 
- 3 000 6 000 9 000 12 000 15 000 18 000 
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009in EUR million
0.00.30.60.91.21.51.8
Guaranteed Lending Fund's Assets
 
3. GRAPH 2: COVER OF DEFAULTS BY FUND RESOURCES AND RECOVERIES (IN 
EUR  MILLION ) 
- 53 54 15 16 17 10 - 5 4 - - - - - 294 557 862 1 280 1 313 1 432 1 774 
1 646 1 592 1 612 
1 324 1 321 
1 152 1 091 1 240 
- 36 56 45 185 
5 - 241 
- - 8 - - - - - 303 
301 
- 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Calls to the Fund Fund ressources Recoveries
 
 
EN 5   EN 4. GRAPH 3: GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF LENDING OPERATIONS BY GROUP 
OF COUNTRIES COVERED BY THE FUND AT 31 DECEMBER 2009  (% OF THE 
TOTAL OUTSTANDING AMOUNT COVERED , EUR  16.361  BILLION ). 
candidates countries. 31%
Mediterranean. 41%Potential candidate countries. 
9%
Eastern Europe, Southern 
Coucasus and Russia. 2%
Latin America. 8%South Africa. 4% Asia. 5%
Asia
candidates countries
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia
Latin America
Mediterranean
Potential candidate countries
South Africa
 
Details of countries belonging to each geographical area (at 31.12.2009): 
Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, 
Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Iraq, South Korea, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Yemen, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan; 
Candidate Countries: Croatia, Turkey, The former Yugoslav 
Republic of Macedonia; 
Eastern Europe, southern Caucasus and Russia: Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, 
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia,; 
Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, 
Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela; 
 
EN 6   EN Mediterranean: Algeria, Eg ypt, The West Bank and the 
Gaza Strip, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia; 
Potential candidate countries: Al bania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 
Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo;  
South Africa: South Africa 
5. RISK PROFILE OF THE LOANS COVERED BY FUND IN 2006  AND 2009 
Distribution of loans covered by the Fund by gr oup of rating (Moody's or equivalent) in 2006
B1; B2; B3
11%
Ba1; Ba2; Ba3
64%Baa1; Baa2; Baa3
22%Caa1; Caa2; Caa3
0%N/A
2%A1; A2; A3
1%
 
 
EN 7   EN Distribution of loans covered by the Fund by gr oup of rating (Moody's or equivalent) in 2009
A1; A2; A3 
1% B1; B2; B3 
13%
Ba1; Ba2; Ba3 
62%Baa1; Baa2; Baa3 
23%Caa1; Caa2; Caa3 
0%N/A N/A
1%
 
6. TABLE 1: FLOWS IN AND OUT OF THE FUND SINCE 1994 
Flows in and out of the Fund since 1994
EUR million
YearTranfert from 
Union BudgetInterests + 
gains on 
assets soldRecoveries 
(including 
penalties 
interests)Impact of 
Fair value 
adjustment 
(IFRS)1Financial 
flows to 
the FundCallsEIB 
commission 
and other 
chargesAmount back 
to Union 
budget from 
the FundFinancial 
flows 
from the 
FundFinancial 
flows for 
the yearFund's net 
assets2Amount to 
be 
recovered 
from 
defaults3
a b c d e=(a+b+c+d) f g h i=(f+g+h) j=(e+i)  
1994 294 294 294 294
1995 251 24 36 310 -303 -303 7 301 -268
1996 235 20 56 311 -53 -2 -54 257 557 -271
1997 286 35 45 366 -54 -7 -61 304 862 -291
1998 272 50 185 508 -15 -8 -66 -89 419 1281 -134
1999 300 49 5 354 -16 -7 -298 -321 32 1313 -145
2000 186 63 249 -17 -5 -108 -131 118 1432 -163
2001 207 74 241 522 -10 -5 -165 -180 343 1774
2002 167 81 247 -4 -372 -376 -129 1646
2003 152 67 219 -5 -4 -263 -272 -53 1592 -5
2004 182 62 7 251 -4 -4 -223 -231 20 1612 -2
2005* 140 54 47 242 -4 -526 -530 -288 1324 -1
2006 128 55 -32 151 -3 -93 -96 55 1379
2007 55 -19 36 -2 -261 -263 -227 1152
2008 49 15 64 -1 -126 -127 -63 1090
2009 92 42 16 150 -1 -1 149 1239
total 2892 778 576 28 4273 -478 -55 -2501 -3035 1239
     
1 First time a pplication of IFRS standards in 2005. Portfolio valued at "Mark-to-Market".
2 Fund's net assets (EIB commission and other char ges deducted )
3 Amount to be recovered from defaults = ca pital + interest + penalt y interest for late payment.  
 
EN 8   EN 7. TABLE 2: USE OF THE BUDGET LINE DURING THE FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK 
2007-2013  (IN EUR) 
 Amount available in Budget    
1Transfers from the Budget to the 
Fund or surplus ( - ), transfers from the Fund to the Budget                   2Used percentageAccumulated amount 
used for the 
provisioning of the 
fund
2007 200 000 000 0 0% 0
2008 200 000 000 -125 750 000 0% -125 750 000
2009 200 000 000 91 960 000 46% -33 790 000
2010 200 000 000 93 810 000 47% 60 020 000
2011 200 000 000 138 880 000 69% 198 900 0002012 * 200 000 000 326 000 000 163% 524 900 000
2013 * 200 000 000 271 000 000 136% 795 900 000
Total 1 400 000 000 795 900 000 57%Year
 
8. TABLE 3: RATIO BETWEEN TOTAL ANNUAL CAPITAL OUTSTANDING AND 
INTEREST DUE AND THE AMOUNTOF THE FUND 
EUR million (rounded)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013*
Amounts  of loans and interest due 1 328 1 547 1 591 1 803 1 939 1 304 1 594 1 203 1 322 1 494 1 548 1 870 2 648 3 250
Guarantee Fund's asset 1 432 1 774 1 646 1 592 1 612 1 324 1 321 1 152 1 091 1 240 1 359 1 561 1 946 2 287
 
Risk coverage ratio 108% 115% 103% 88% 83% 102% 83% 96% 83% 83% 88% 83% 73% 70%
* estimated figures  
9. PROJECTIONS OF PROVISIONING NEEDS 2009  -2013  AND BEYOND  
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Target Amt 1 118 1 276 1 472 1 840 2 159 2 390 2 537 2 670 2 763 2 807 2 783
Provisioning calculation for PDB (financial flow in n+2) 92 93 139 326 271 173 78 56 12 0 0
Financial flow for the year 0 -126 92 93 139 326 271 173 78 56 12
 
Estimation of Fund assets ending year 0 -126 1 240 1 375 1 561 1 946 2 287 2 536 2 695 2 837 2 938