ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(82)653
Vol.1982/0205

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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(82)653final
Brussels,15October1982
COMMUNICATION FROMTHECOMMISSION
TOTHECOUNCIL
ONCOMMUNITY NATURALGASSUPPLIES
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pf20u';T.V;?:2g
SortiduSecrétariatJiH
Gé/iérci\*% AvXi'/:-:rnrnT^\?y
COM(82)653final

Communication fromtheCommissiontotheCouncil
onCommunitynaturalgassupplies
1.INTRODUCTION
........ (1)1.1InitsCommunication onnaturalgastotheCouncilofthe
27thOctober1981theCommissiondrewattentiontothechanging
patternoftheCommunity'snaturalgassuppliesandthegrowing
contribution ofimportsofgasfromoutsidetheCommunity.The
CouncilnotedtheCommission'sanalysisandinvitedtheCommission
tostudythisareainmoredetail,takingintoaccounttheviews
oftheMemberStates.
1.2Inlinewiththisinvitation -theCommissionpresentedaCommunication
(2)onthesecurityofnaturalgassuppliestotheCommunity tothe
Councilofthe16thMarch1982.ThisCommunication hadbeenprepared
afterconsultation withMemberStates'expertsandreviewedthebroad
typesofmeasuresavailabletoenhancethesecurityofnaturalgas
supplies.
1.3TheCouncilwelcomedtheCommission'sfurtherworkinthisareaand
alsorecognisedthegrowingroleplayedbynaturalgasinmeeting
theCommunity'senergyneedsandreducingtheCommunity'sdependence
onoil.TheCouncilalsonotedthattheCommission wouldcarryout
furtherstudiesinordertomakeanyspecificproposalsjudged
necessarytoreinforcenaturalgassupplysecuritytotheCommunity.
1.4ThepresentCommunication brieflyreviewsthedevelopmentandoutlook
fornaturalgasintheCommunityandsummarisestheCommission's
furtherworkonsupplysecurity,inparticulartheworkundertaken
inco-operation withMemberStatessincetheMarch1982Council.
(1)C0M(81)530final"Communication fromtheCommissiontotheCouncil
concerningnaturalgas"
(2)COM(82)45final"Communication fromtheCommissiontotheCouncil
concerningmeasurestoenhancethesecurityofnaturalgassupplies
totheCommunity"

-2-
2.NATURAL GASDEVELOPMENT INTHECOMMUNITY
S
2.1.Theroleofnatural gasintheCommunity hasgrownrapidlyoverthepasttwo
decades andnatural gasnowmeetsabout18%ofCommunity energyneedscompared
toonly7%asrecently as1970.Thisrapidgrowthinnatural gasconsumption
waslargely basedontheconsiderable reserves discovered intheNetherlands ,the
leadingproducer intheCommunity ,andthesubsequent findsintheUKsectorof
theNorthSea.
2.2.Thegrowthinnatural gasconsumption hasmadeanimportant contribution tothe
diversification oftheCommunity 'senergysupplies,andinparticular hashelped
toreducetheover-dependence onoil.Thisisillustrated bythegrowthinnatural
(1)gasconsumption from153milliard cubicmetres in1973,thetimeofthefirstoil
shock,toapeakconsumption of226milliard cubicmetres reachedin1979,
compared toadeclineinoilconsumption overthesameperiod.
2.3.Morerecently,thepartofimports fromoutsidetheCommunity intotalnatural gas
supplies hasalsogrownrapidly.In1977importsfromthirdcountries accounted
forabout11%oftotalnatural gassupplies,aproportion whichhadreached 21%
twoyearslater.
2.4.In1980,however,Community natural gasconsumption fellforthefirsttime,
reflecting pricedevelopments anduncertainty surrounding somecontracts for
importsfromthirdcountries ,together withaworsening economic environment .
2.5.CurrentlevelsofCommunity natural gasconsumption continue tofallwith
consumption in1981at214milliard cubicmetresshowing aslightdeclineforthe
secondyearinsuccession .Thepicturevariesbetween MemberStates,however,
showingthedifferent impactofenergysavingmeasures andsubstitution by
alternative energies,economic recession andprogress onmajornewimportcontracts .
InFrance,forexample,consumption in1981grewbymorethan4%overtheprevious
yearwhilsttheFederalRepublicofGermanyshowedadeclineofmorethan6%.
(1)Calorific valué35162kJ/m,equivalent to"Groningen "gas. '
1tonneoilequivalent =1300m"Groningen gas.
./.

Table1-CommunityNaturalGasSupplies1990
9310mGroningen
TotaI
NaturalGas
ConsumptionInd.
Prod.Intra
Community
tradeEstimatedImportsfromThirdCountriesNaturalGasImports
fromThirdCountriesas:
CExp.-
Imp.+)TotaIAIgeriaLibya Norway USSR %ofTotal
EnergyConsumption%ofNatural
Gasconsump-
tion
Fed.Rep.
ofGermany 68.0 17.522.5 28.0 8.0 20.0 7% 41%
France 42.9 3.16.533.39.2-2.9 12.0 11% 78%
Italy 45.5 7.86.531.213.02.6-7.0(8.0)214% 69%
Netherlands ·38.0 75.8_Í1)-39.8 2.0- -2.0- 2% 5%
Belgium 12.7-4.3 8.45.0-2.9 (0.5)311% 66%
Luxembourg 0.7-0.7- - - - - - -
United
Kingdom 61.5 45.0-16.5- -16.5- 5% 27%
Ireland 2.1 2.1- - - - - - - -
Denmark 1.9 2.6-0.7- - - - - - -
Greece 0.1 0.1– – – – – – –
EUR10273.4 154.0 0119.427.22.632.3 39.0(8.5)8% 44%
(1)Basedonforecastsforimporters
(2)ContractnotyetGovernmentapproved
(3)Undernegotiation .Quantitygivenwouldbetheestimatedtakein1990.
NotesCiXhe sumoftheimportsgivenbysourcecountryisnotnecessarilyequaltototalimportsasthesourceofsomesupplies
isnotyetsettled.
(ii)Forecastsbasedonexpertgroupwork.NotnecessarilyofficialMemberStateforecasts.

4
2.6.Theserecentdevelopments arealsoreflectedinareductioninthe
forecastfortotalCommunitynaturalgasconsumptionfor1990;fromthe
1981forecastof292milliardcubicmetrestothelatestforecastof273milliard
cubicmetres.Thisdeclineintheforecastfornaturalgasconsumptionis
mainlyreflectedinareductionintheforecastforimportsfromthirdcountries.
2.7.ThepatternofCommunitynaturalgassuppliesforecastfor1990isgivenin
Table1.Thisshowsthatabout56%oftotalCommunityconsumptionwillbe
accountedforbyindigenousproduction.Thebalancewillbeimportedfrom
existingsupplierstotheCommunity,namelyAlgeria,Norway,theUSSRand,
forrelativelysmallquantitiesofgastoItaly,Libya.
2.8.ThecontractsforsuppliesfromAlgeriahaverecentlybeenthesubjectof
re-negotiation withsettlements reachedforthecontractswithDistrigazof
Belgium,GazdeFranceandSNAMofItaly.ThecontractforLibyangassupplies
toItalyisstillunderre-negotiation .
2.9.Contractsforadditionalsupplieshavebeenagreedorareundernegotiation
betweenseveralundertakings fromwithintheCommunityandSoyusgasexport
oftheUSSR.Aconsortiumofgasundertakings fromwithintheFederalRepublic
ofGermanyhaveagreednewcontractsforatotalof10.5milliardcubicmetres
ayearfromtheUSSRfrom1984for25years.Negotiations onthesupplyofup
to0.7milliardcubicmetresayearofnaturalgasforWestBerlinarecurrently
takingplace.Acontractfor8milliardcubicmetresayearbetweenGazdeFrance
andScyujgasexporthasalsobeenagreed.
2.10.Headsofagreementforacontractof8milliardcubicmetresayearbetweenSNAM
ofItalyandSoyusgasexport havebeendrawnup,althoughthenewcontracthas
notyetbeenapprovedbytheItalianGovernment .Talksarecontinuingbetween
theBelgianandSovietadministrations concerningthecontractforgassuppliesto
DistrigazofBelgiumalthough,in anyevent,thequantities wouldbeunderthe
5milliardcubicmetresinitiallyenvisaged.Greeceiscurrentlygiving
consideration toimportsof1to2milliardcubicmetresayearfromtheUSSR,
althoughthisuouldnotbeviathesamepipeline.
./.

-5-
2.11Recentlyanewcontractwassignedbyaconsortiumofundertakings
fromtheFederalRepublicofGermany,France,theNetherlands and
Belgiumforatotalof3.5milliardcubicmetresayearfromfields
intheNorwegiansectoroftheNorthSea.Thisgaswillcomevia
thenewNorwegiangasgatheringpipelinecurrentlyunderconstruction
anddeliveriesareplannedtostartin1986.
2.12TheforecastsgiveninTable1showthatimportswillaccountfor
about44%oftotalnaturalgasconsumption,or8%oftotalenergy
consumption,ifitisassumedthatthecurrentnegotiations forgas
suppliesfromtheUSSRwithItalyandBelgiumleadtoanagreement.
2.13Assumingfullcontractual quantitiesforimportsfromtheUSSR,
(whichareslightlyabovethosegiveninTable1)andassuming
agreementswithBelgiumandItaly,gasimportsfromtheUSSRwould
representabout19%oftotalCommunitygassuppliesandlessthan
4%oftotalenergysupplies.
ImportsfromNorwaywouldaccountforabout12%ofCommunitynatural
gasconsumption,importsfromAlgeria10%,fromLibyaabout1%,and
theremaining 2%isaccountedforbypossiblenewthird
countrysuppliers.Thepercentagesforindividual MemberStatesvary
quitewidelybutinnocasewouldtheshareofnaturalgasfromthe
USSR,whichwouldbethelargestthirdcountrysupplier,exceedone
thirdofthetotalgasconsumption intheimportingcountry.
2.14Thepatternofconsumptionisalsoforecasttochangesomewhatover
thenextdecade.FortheCommunityasawholetheshareofgas
consumedbythedomesticandcommercialsectorisforecastto
increasefromacurrentvalueofabout44%to48%by1990.This
growthinshareismainlyattheexpenseoftheshareheld
byelectricitygeneration.Whilstthisshiftreflectsalikely
increasedpremiumuseofnaturalgas,itwillalsotendtoincrease
thecostofsupplybecauseoftheadditionalcostsassociatedwiththe
smallerbutmorenumerousdomesticconsumerandhismoreseasonal
patternofdemand.

_6_
2.15Beyond1990morediversification isexpectedasthenewsourceswith
whichCommunitygasundertakings arecurrentlyholdingexploratory
discussions or.negotiations aredevelopedandbegindeliveries.
PossiblenewsourcesofsupplytotheCommunityincludeCanada,some
AfricancountriesincludingtheCamerounandNigeriaandsomeMiddle
EaststatesincludingQatarandtheUnitedArabEmirates.
2.16However,becauseoftheneedtofullyconsiderthetechnical,economic
andenvironmental aspectsofsuchverylargeprojectsandthe
considerable leadtimesfortheirdevelopment,noneofthesesources
couldsupplygastotheCommunitybeforetheendofthedecadeattheearliest.
2.17Thereisalsoconsiderable potentialforadditionalNorwegiansupplies
inthelongerterm,althoughtherewouldbeformidabletechnical
problemstobeovercomeandverylargeinvestments tobemade.The
NorwegianGovernmentisalsoconcernedthatthewidereconomicand
environmental implications ofoilandgasdevelopment policyarefully
considered.
2.18Dependingontheprogressindeveloping suchnewsourcesofsupply,as
wellasthedevelopment ofproductionwithintheCommunity,itis
estimatedthattotalCommunityconsumption intheyear2000couldbe
between280to3?0milliardcubicmetres,andnaturalgaswouldthenhold
itscurrentshareofabout18%oftotalenergyconsumption .
2.19Oneofthekeyfactorsinthelongtermdevelopment ofnaturalgaswill
undoubtedly bethepriceofimportsfromthirdcountries.Ingeneral,
assourcesofgasfurtherfromtheCommunityareconsidered,sothe
costsinvolvedtendtorise.Ofcourse,foraviableproject,thegas
tradedmustgiveareasonablereturnoninvestmentforthedeveloper,
butthepriceofthegasmustalsobesuchastoremaincompetitive
onthefinalconsumer'smarket,afterallowingforallthecostsof
transportanddistribution .

3.SECURITY OFCOMMUNITY NATURAL GASSUPPLIES
3.1.Atthepresentation atthe16thMarch1982CounciloftheCommission 's
(1)previous document onnatural gassupplysecurity theCouncilnoted
thattheCommission wouldcarryoutfurtherstudiesintothissubject
.andreportonitsfindings .AmeetingofMemberStates'experts wasthen
convened bytheCommission todecideuponanapproach toadoptforthe
furtherstudies .Itwasagreedthatascenario approach wouldbethe
mostsuitable andasetofscenario conditions wasagreedbyMemberStates.
3.2.Theseconditions gavescenarios ofaninterruption of10%and25%innormal
forecast natural gassupplies,expressed atanannualrate,fora6month
winterperiodinthereference yearchosen (1990).Furthermore ,MemberStates
wereaskedtoexamine howtheycoulddealwithsuchinterruptions inbotha
normal andaseverewinter.
3.3.Aquestionnaire basedonthesescenarios wassubsequently sentouttoMember
Statesandthesewerecompleted andreturned totheCommission .Thequestionn­
airereplies werethenanalysed bytheCommission anddiscussed withMember
States.Theyformthebasisofthegeneralconclusions onnatural gassupply
security contained inthefollowing sections ofthisreport.
3.4.Theresultsofthescenario exercise showthatthegasindustry intheMember
StatesoftheCommunity isabletodealwithallthescenarios examinedwithonlysome
limitedpeaksupplyproblems insomeofthecountries ,inthemostextreme
circumstances .AsregardstheMemberStateswhicharemostreliant onimports
fromoutsidetheCommunity (seeTable 1)thegasindustryinthesecountries
havetakenparticular caretoensuresecurityofsupplies andindeedthey
wouldbeabletodealwithanevenmoresevereshortfall insupplies thanthat
represented bythemostextremescenario .
3.5.Allofthetypesofmeasures todealwithashortfall inqassupplieslistedin
(1)theCommission'spreviousCommunicationswouldbeusedbydifferentMemberStates
althoughtheexactcombinations varywidely.Muchdependsonwhatcriteria are
usedtoguidethegasindustryindealingwithshortfall insuppliesintermsof
economicoptimisation andoperating procedures ,bearinginmindthatin
realitythedurationoftheshortfall andthetypeofwinterfacedwouldnot
(1)C0M(82)45 final"Communication fromtheCommission totheCouncil concernim
measures toenhancethesecurity ofnatural gassupplies totheCommunity ".

-8-
beknownatthebeginningoftheinterruption period.Indeedinthesevere
winterscenariothepictureiscomplicated bytheneedtouseemergency
resourcesforboththeincreaseddemandfromcoldweatherandtomakeup
theshortfallinsupplies.
3.6.Thescenarioresultsshow,however,thatfortheCommunityasawhole,the
measurewhichmakesthegreatestcontributiontomakinguptheshortfallin
suppliesisstorage,whichwouldmakeupaboutonethirdoftheshortfall
undereachofthescenarios.Analmostequalcontributionismadeby
spareproductioncapacity,whichwouldplayamoresignificant-
roleinthe10%scenariosthaninthe25%scenarios.Flexibility
onimportcontractswouldbeusedinonlyafewcountries,although
itmakesamajorcontribution inthesecases.Theuseofinterruptiblecontracts
isrelativelysmall,meetinginthe10%scenariosaroundoneeighthofthe
shortfallinsupplies,althoughtheirroleincreasessignificantly inthe
25%scenarios.

_9_
4.ADDITIONAL LONGTERMMEASURES
4.1.Whilsttheanalysisdescribed aboveillustrates thatthegasindustryin
theMemberStatesoftheCommunity candealwithamajorinterruption in
supplies throughtheuseofavarietyofmeasures,additional measures to
enhancesupplysecurity shouldalsobefullypursued.
4.2.Firstly,therearethelongtermmeasures toincrease supplysecurity asin
theCommission 'sprevious Communications :
-diversification ofimports
-encourage indigenous production ,exploration ,development
-development ofSNG(Substitute Natural Gas)
Diversification ofImports
4.3.Several MemberStatesattachconsiderable importance tothislongtermmeasure
toincrease supplysecurity andtherearepreliminary talksornegotiations
underway withseveralpossible newsuppliers asmentioned inSection 2.
Whilstdiversification ,liketheothertwolong-term measures,isunlikely to
makeasignificant impactinthisdecade,presentefforts shouldbefully
maintained ,andtheCommission willcontinue towatchprogress closely .
Indigenous Production ,Exploration andDevelopment
4.4.TheCommission 'sprevious Communication onnatural gasoutlined theneedto
achieve alongtermbalancebetweentherateofindigenous production and
natural gasreserves .Themostscopeforincreasing orextending thecontrib­
utionofindigenous production therefore liesinfurtherexploration toincrease
theknownresource base.BothofthetwomajorCommunity natural gasproducers ,
theNetherlands andtheUnitedKingdom,areencouraging furtherexploration
withthehopeofincreasing theirknownresources whichunderpinproduction .
Exploration isalsounderwayinotherMemberStatesalthoughthepossibility
ofmajornewfindsisconsidered lesslikely.

-10-
4.5.Todaterelatively verylittlenatural gashasbeenproduced fromdepths
greaterthan5000metresalthough manyproductive fieldsinEuropelie
between 3000and4000metres.Recently,however,therehavebeenanumber
oftheoriesadvancedthatsuggestverysubstantial quantities ofgasexis^:
atgreaterdepths.EarlierthisyeartheCommission organised aseminarto
discuss thesetheories andinvitedrepresentatives oftheMemberStatesand
leadingindustry andacademic experts.Following thisseminar astudygroup
willbeestablished bytheCommission ,including representatives oftheMember
StatesandNorway,toexaminetheapproach andinformation required toevaluate
thepotential of"deepgas".Iftheseinitialinvestigations aresufficiently
encouraging itwouldthenbeappropriate toconsider thenextstepsuchasa
preliminary geological survey,whichcouldbenefitfromCommunity aid.Whilst
theCommission isawareoftheratherspeculative natureofan.investigation into
"deepgas",itisexactlythisfactwhichmakesastepbystepapproach,at
Community level,soappropriate .
Substitute Natural Gas(SNG)
4.6.Theproduction ofSubstitute Natural Gas(SNG)fromcoalisagainalongterm
possibility ,whichcouldmakeacontribution tofuturegassuppliesifthe
technology canbedeveloped toaneconomically viablestage.Thisdependstosome
extentonthefutureevolution ofgasprices,butinanycaseresearch onSNG
represents something ofaninsurance policyandshouldbefullypursued .Withthe
softening oftheenergymarketsomeSNGprojects haverecently beenabandoned but
itwouldbeunfortunate ifshorttermconsiderations prevented thedevelopment
ofapossibly viablelongtermoption.TheCommission ,indeed,continues togive
financial supportforgasification projects intheFederalRepublic ofGermany,
Italy,andtheUnitedKingdom aswellasforunderground gasification projects in
Belgium andFrance.
FurtherCo-operation atCommunity Level
4.7.TheabilityofMemberStatestodealwithamajorinterruption insupplies relies
onexisting andplanned measures undertaken bythegasindustry intheindividual
MemberStates.Itcannot,however,beexcluded thatsomeMemberStatescouldbe
affected moreseverely thanothersbyashortfall fromoutside supplysources and
insuchacaseadegreeofpoolingofresources byMemberStateswouldfurther
enhance thesecurity ofsupply.

-11-
4.8.Itisunderstandable thataprecise commitment maybedifficult tomakein
advance,particularly sincethegasindustry isessentially acommercial
activity,buti.nexceptional circumstances theremaybeaneedforsuch
action.Withthedifferent measures available toindividual .MemberStates
itisclearthattherecouldbeconsiderable scopeforoneMemberStateto
helpanother,inaddition toexisting agreements .
4.9.Theonephysical constraint whichcouldprevent suchfurtherco-operation is
theinability ofthegastransport systemtore-allocate resources asrequired .
However,theEuropean gasgridisalreadyhighlyintegrated ,although there
maybeaneedforsomefurtherreinforcements tocopewiththedislocation of
amajorsupplyshortfall .
4.10.Inanyevent,theadvantages ofanyfurther measures intermsofsecurity of
supplymustbebalanced againsttheextracost.Forthisreasonfurtherlinks
toenhance supplysecurity whichwouldalsoaccomodate newsupplypatterns
wouldbemorelikelytobejustifiable .Suchcouldbethecase,forexample,if
therewasaprojectfortheexportofNorwegian gastocontinental customers
viaaroutethrough theUKandadditional benefits intermsofsecurity ofsupply
couldbedemonstrated .
4.11.TheCommission isanxioustoexplorethisareaofadditional co-operation at
theCommunity levelinmoredetailandproposes toundertake aseriesofstudies
intothedifferent possibilities .TheCommission alsoproposestoestablish
inconjunction withMemberStates'representatives andindustry experts,a
frameworktoadvise,onanadhocbasis,inthecasewhereamajorinterruption
insuppliesfromoutsidetheCommunity couldoccur.

-12-
CONCLUSIONS
I
TheCouncilisrequestedtoagreethefollowingconclusions :
(i)Naturalgaswillcontinuetoplayanimportantroleinmeeting 1
Communityenergyneeds,indiversifying theCommunity'senergy
suppliesandinhelpingtoreducetheCommunity'sdependence on
oiI.
(ii)Veryconsiderable effortsareinhandinthegasindustryofthe
MemberStatestoassurethesecurityofnaturalgassupplies.On
thebasisofinformation returnedbytheMemberStatesthemeasures
currentlyenvisagedcoulddealwithamajorinterruption insupplies
(atleast25%duringaperiodof6consecutive months),withthe
minimumofrepercussions forthefinalconsumer.Thegasdeficit
wouldthenbepartiallycoveredbysupplementary suppliesofoil.
TheCommission willcontinuetofollowtheevolutionofthesituation
inconsultation withMemberStates.
(iii)Thatthefollowingmeasurescontinuetobefullypursuedwithin
MemberStatestofurtherenhancethesecurityofnaturalgas
suppliesinthelongterm:
-encouraging indigenousproduction,exploration anddevelopment
-diversification ofimports
-development ofSubstituteNaturalGas(SNG).
(iv)Thatthepossibilities forfurtherco-operation atCommunityLevelon
thesecurityofnaturalgassuppliesbeexplored.Thisincludesstudies
intopossibleassistancebetweenMemberStatesinthecaseofdifficulties
insuppliesfromoutsidetheCommunity,theadequacyofthenaturalgas
transportsysteminthisrespectandstudiesintotheprospectsforthe
exploitation of"deepgas"intheCommunity.
(v)ThattheCommissionshouldestablish,inconjunction withMemberStates'
representatives andindustryexperts,agrouptobeconsulted,onanad
hocbasis,inthecasewhereamajorinterruption insuppliesfrom
outsidetheCommunitycouldoccur.