COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 
Brussels, 11.06.1996 
COM(96) 217 final 
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION UNDER THE UN 
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 
Article 4.2. (b) (c) (d) and Article 12 

CONTENT 
page 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY X 
1. INTRODUCTION 1 
2. SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 4 
2.1. Introduction 4 
2.2. Geographical setting of the European Community 4 
2.3. Climate profile 6 
2.4. Social profile 8 
2.5. Economic profile 9 
2.6. Energy profile 11 
3. THE EC EMISSION INVENTORY 14 
3.1. Introduction 14 
3.2. Inventory methodology 14 
3.3. Feedstocks 17 
3.4. Bunkers 17 
3.5. Uncertainties involved 18 
4. PROGRAMMES, POLICIES AND MEASURES 19 
4.1. Introduction 19 
4.2. The Community strategy to limit C02 
emissions and improve energy efficiency 19 
4.3. Community programmes and initiatives 20 
4.4. The proposal for an energy/carbon tax 26 
4.5. The monitoring mechanism 27 
4.6. Sectoral policies 28 
4.7. Commission Working Paper on the EU Climate Change Strategy: a set of 
options 33 
4.8. Summary 33 
5. NATIONAL PROGRAMMES OF THE MEMBER STATES 37 
5.1. Introduction 37 
5.2. The Member States' National Reports to limit greenhouse gas emissions 37 
5.3. Summary 58 
6. PROJECTIONS OF C02 EMISSIONS IN 2000 60 
6.1. Introduction 60 
6.2. Modelling techniques and scenarios 60 
6.3. Trends in C02 emissions 62 
7. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 64 
7.1. Introduction 64 
7.2. Possible impacts of climate change on the European 
Community 64 
7.3. Adaptation activities 67 
8. FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 69 
8.1. Introduction 69 
8.2. Cooperation with third countries 69 
8.3. Cooperation with developing countries 71 
8.4. Cooperation with the countries of Central and 
Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union 75 
8.5. Summary 78 
9. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 79 
9.1. Introduction 79 
9.2. Second Framework Programme of Research and 
Development 79 
9.3. Third Framework Programme of Research and 
Development 80 
9.4. Fourth Framework Programme of Research and 
Development 83 
9.5. Summary 86 
10. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS 88 
10.1. Introduction 88 
10.2. Information, education and training programme 88 
10.3. Dissemination of research results 91 
10.4. Research activities regarding education,, training 
and public awareness 92 
LITERATURE 93 
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 95 
ANNEX 1. National greenhouse gas emission inventories 97 
ANNEX 2. Scenarios 128 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
1. Introduction 
1.1. The European Community1 signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate 
Change (UN FCCC) at the UN Conference on Environment and Development 
(UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and ratified it on the 21st of December 1993. 
1.2. As a Party to the Convention, the European Community has accepted the 
commitment to adopt policies and take corresponding measures aimed at returning 
emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels, individually or jointly, by the year 
2000. With respect to C02, the European Community set itself the objective to 
stabilise emissions by the year 2000 at 1990 levels, in the terms agreed by the Joint 
Energy/Environment Council of October 1990. 
1.3. The present Communication of the European Community under the UN FCCC 
explicitly describes measures to address climate change which are or will be taken 
at the Community level in the period 1990-August 1995. Relevant information of 
Austria, Finland and Sweden, which joined the European Community on 1 January 
1995 has been included. The commitments of the European Community are to be 
reached with complementary Community and national programmes. Since the 
national programmes have been described in.detail in the National Communications 
under the UN FCCC of the Member States, these programmes have only been 
summarized in this communication. 
2. Specific circumstances in the European Community 
2.1. The Member States of the European Community vary enormously in size, 
population, geographical and economic profile. Until 1 January 1995, the European 
Community consisted of the following Member States: Belgium, Denmark, 
Germany, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, 
Spain and the United Kingdom. Since 1 January 1995, Austria, Sweden and Finland 
acceded to the European Community. 
Throughout the text the term "European Community" is used, since this is the legal 
name deposited to the United Nations in 1994. The "Commission of the European 
Communities" is the formal name of the European Commission. 
2.2. The European Community is relatively modest in size (3 240 153 km2). The total 
number of inhabitants of the European Community amounts to 370 million 
inhabitants, i.e. the average population density amounts to 114 inhabitants per km2. 
The territory of the European Community is made up of a wide variety of land of 
varying quality, almost a quarter of which is arable (28%), approximately a third 
wooded (35%) and a substantial proportion grassland (18%). 
2.3. The level of development of the national economies in the European Community 
varies considerably among the Member States. The GDP per capita of the majority 
of the Member States lies in between 11 500 ECU and 16 500 ECU (figures for 
1992 in 1985 prices and exchange rates). Service sectors are the most important 
economic sectors in the European Community. Manufacturing industries are the 
second most important sector. The transport sector in the EC has shown above-
average C02 emission growth in recent years and is one of the major sources of 
C02 emissions (Green Paper on Transport and Environment; COM (92), 46 final, 
20.02.92). The EC is depending on imports for most of its energy provision. 
3. The EC emission inventory 
3.1. The EC inventory for the year 1990 has been compiled based on the inventories of 
the 15 Member States. Table El provides a summary of greenhouse gas emission 
estimates in 1990. To estimate total greenhouse gas emissions in the European 
Community, total greenhouse gas emissions in each one of the Member States were 
added together. Estimates of emissions in the Member States were primarily taken 
from national communications prepared by the Member States under the UN FCCC. 
If these were not available, national programmes under the EC Decision on a 
Monitoring Mechanism for C02 and other greenhouse gases were used. In general, 
the inventories reported in these national reports followed the IPCC guidelines for 
national greenhouse gas inventories. If no nationally reported estimates were 
available, CORINAIR and/or Eurostat figures have been used. 
3.2. Since nationally reported inventories were not available for all EC Member States, 
and CORINAIR does not include removals of C02, C02 emissions and/or removals 
from Land Use Change have not been quantified in the 1990 EC inventory. 
3.3. The emission estimates presented in Table E.l are structured according to the 
reporting instructions of the IPCC guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories. For 
reasons of consistency, EUROSTAT estimates have been used for each of the 
Member States to calculate their feedstock emissions. These have been reported 
separately in the category "Final Non Energy Consumption (FNEC)". 
II 
Table E.l. EC inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. 1990. (Gg). Short Summary Table. Provisional estimates1. 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in European Community (EUR-15) - 1990 (Gg). 
CO, CH4 NX) NOT CO NMVOC 
All energy 
Fuel combustion 
Fugitive fuel 
Industrial processes 
Solvent use 
Agriculture 
Land use change 1 
la 
lb 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 Waste 3153200 
3145700 
7700 
148300 
300 
500 
NE2 
25850 5587 
793 
4795 
42 
0 
10349 
8681 157 
157 
1 
353 
6 
385 
20 13332 
13243 
88 
154 
0 
50 
71 46184 
46092 
92 
2811 
0 
2763 
327 8422 
7697 
726 
1077 
4043 
738 
93 
Total emissions3 3328350 24660 922 13606 52085 14374 
Marine bunkers 113600 
Aviation bunkers 56500 
FNEC3 243600 
(FNEC = Final Non-Energy Consumption) 
NE = Not Estimated 
Notes: 
Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Community are based on estimates of 
emissions in the Member States, updated up to June 1995. 
C02 emissions and/or removals from Land Use Change are not known for many countries and hence 
have not been included in this table. Non-C02 greenhouse gas emissions from Land Use Change have 
also not been estimated. 
Emissions from Final Non Energy Consumption (including feedstocks) have not been included in 
total emissions. Therefore, total emissions are underestimated in comparison with the IPCC 
methodology. Emissions from Final Non Energy Consumption (FNEC) are based on the total carbon 
contained in the related products. The addition of energy emissions and emissions from FNEC would 
therefore produce an overestimation compared to the IPCC methodology. 
3.4. Following the decisions taken at ninth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating 
Committee on a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC-9), emissions 
from bunkers are not included in the total emissions in summary Table E.l. Since 
only a few Member States provided estimates of bunker emissions, emission 
estimates from maritime bunkers are based on Eurostat figures. Aviation bunker 
emissions have been estimated by reconciling non-road transport figures from 
• Eurostat against estimates reported in CORINAIR and/or country reports. 
3.5. The uncertainty in the emission estimates has not been quantified, since 
quantitative estimates of the uncertainty would be highly unreliable. Estimates for 
C02 emissions from fuel combustion activities (based on energy balance figures) 
are rather reliable and are likely to be least uncertain (within about +/- 3%). The 
uncertainty in emission estimates from non-C02 gases is increasing in the 
following order: CO < NOx < CH4 < NMVOC < N20, with uncertainties increasing 
to several orders of magnitude (several hundreds of percent). 
Ill 
4. Programmes, policies and measures 
4.1. In October 1991, the Commission presented an overall strategy to limit C02 
emissions and improve energy efficiency, with the objective of stabilising C02 
emissions in the Community in the year 2000 at the 1990 level. The Community 
strategy rests on four pillars: 
- The EC energy conservation and energy technology programmes. 
The THERMIE I programme (1990-1994) aimed at the demonstration and 
dissemination of cleaner and more efficient energy techniques. The JOULE II 
programme (1991-1995) is relative to the R&D in the same area; it also 
concerns the elaboration of the RTD strategy and addresses the Energy-
Economy- Environment dimensions of the Climate Change issue. SAVE (1991-
1995) is a programme of energy efficiency legislation and financial support for 
the creation of energy efficiency infrastructure in the Member States. 
ALTENER (1993-1997) provides financial support for activities contributing to 
the application of renewable energy technologies, and envisages standardization 
measures for renewable energy equipment. 
- Fiscal measures. 
In June 1992, the Commission proposed a draft Council Directive for a tax on 
fossil fuels whose tax base will be to 50% the energy content and to 50% the 
carbon content of the energy product. In December 1994, the Council agreed on 
the need to implement a Community framework for the Member States for the 
application of national C02/energy taxation. An amended proposal has been 
adopted by the Commission on 10 May 1995. The main change proposed is 
that the implementation of a harmonised tax will be preceded by a transitional 
period during which the Member States, while respecting a harmonised tax 
structure, are free to set the tax rates product by product provided that the 
Community objectives of limiting C02 emissions through improvement of 
energy efficiency and fuel switching towards low -no carbon fuels is fully 
reflected in the structure of the rates applied. 
- A monitoring mechanism. 
The monitoring mechanism surveys the Community and Member State actions 
aimed at reaching the Community C02 stabilisation target for the year 2000.The 
Commission evaluates these programmes in order to assess whether progress in 
the Community as a whole is sufficient to ensure the stabilisation of C02 
emissions by the year 2000 at 1990 levels. The results are reported to the 
European Parliament and the Council. 
- National programmes. 
The Community strategy requires policy programmes which limit greenhouse 
gas emissions at Member State level, and which will be complementary to 
actions taken at the Community level. 
IV 
From 1 January 1995 THERMIE has continued as the new Non-Nuclear Energy 
programme, better known as JOULE-THERMIE; This new Programme (1995-
1998) brings together for the first time the research and development aspects of 
JOULE with the demonstration and promotion initiatives of THERMIE. 
The Commission has adopted its proposal for a new SAVE programme (SAVE-II) 
on 31 May 1995. Two other programmes with similar aims and activities, the 
PACE programme for electricity efficiency and the annual Programme of support 
for Regional and Urban actions will be merged into SAVE-II. It is scheduled to 
begin on 1 January 1996 and will run until 31 December 2000. The proposed 
budget is 150 MECU. 
4.2. Next to the policies and measures adopted in the framework of the Community 
strategy, some sectoral policies also contribute to the limitation of greenhouse gas 
emissions. 
- The 1992 restructuring of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) contains 
measures, such as the reduction of agricultural support prices and the 
introduction of set-aside schemes for agricultural land, that have a limiting 
impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the agri-environmental 
measures, that have been adopted as accompanying measures to the CAP 
reform, contribute to the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. 
- The EC forestry policies, such as supporting financially afforestation and 
promoting the environmental productivity of forests by regulation, contribute to 
the uptake of C02 emissions. 
- Within the Community, transport is a major and strongly growing source of 
greenhouse gas emissions. From 1991 to 1994, a series of Council Directives 
has been adopted which prescribe standards for emissions of CO, hydrocarbons 
and NOx from various types of vehicles. Fiscal policies with regard to excise 
duties on transport fuels harmonize minimum rates, and are aimed at a 
progressive increase of these duties. 
- Concerning waste, the Directive on packaging and packaging waste and the 
Directive on landfills of waste were adopted on 20 December 1994 (94/62/EC). 
Preventing the production of packaging waste, reusing packaging, recycling and 
reducing the final disposal of waste will result in a reduction of C02 and CH4 
emissions. 
4.3. Before the first Conference of the Parties to UN FCCC and in response to the 
request of the Council the Commission prepared and adopted on 1 March 1995 a 
"Commission Working paper on the EU Climate Change Strategy: a set of 
options", (SEC 95/288/fmal). In the document a preliminary analysis of the policy 
options for C02 limitation in the perspective 2005-2010 is given. The document 
indicates, amongst others, that a technical potential for C02 emission reduction by 
2010 of up to 10% exists, at no or low costs compared to 1990 level, provided 
V 
positive synergies between climate change policies and several other policy areas 
of the Community are exploited. A more detailed analysis will be carried out by_ 
the Commission at a later stage. 
4.4. An overview of the policies and measures that have been adopted by the Council is 
provided in Table E.2. 
VI 
Table E.2. Programmes, policies and measures adopted by the Council. 
Name Period Budget Description 
THERMIE I 
SAVE-programme 
SAVE-legislation 
Energy Management at 
Regional and Urban level 
ALTENER-programme 
Voluntary agreement 
Monitoring 
mechanism 
CAP Reform, 
price lowering 1990 - 1994 
1991 - 1995 
1992 - .... 
1992 - .... 
1994 - .... 
1990-1995 
1993 - 1997 
1993 - 2000 
1992 700 MECU 
35 MECU 
20 MECU 
40 MECU 
CAP Reform, 
set-aside scheme 1992 Financial support for clean energy technologies 
Financial support for energy efficiency projects 
Energy efficiency standards for new hot water boilers 
Energy labelling of major household appliances, Framework Directive 
Energy labelling of refrigerators and freezers 
Rationalisation of energy use at regional and urban level 
Financial support for renewables 
CEN/CENELEC will elaborate standards for thermal solar with CEN/ 
CENELEC systems, photovoltaics and wind turbines 
Procedures to monitor progress towards C02 stabilisation target 
Reduction of agricultural prices makes the use of mineral fertilizer 
less profitable and is one reason for decreasing use of mineral 
fertilizers (and thereby N20 emissions) in the last years 
Compulsory set-aside scheme promotes growing of biofuels 
VII 
Table E.2. Programmes, policies and measures adopted by the Council (continued). 
Name Period Budget Description 
CAP Reform, 
extensification of 
beef production 1992 - .... 
Agri-environmental 1993-1997 
measures 
Afforestation 
Protection of 
forests from 
pollution 
Protection of 
forests from fires 
Emission standards 
for heavy duty 
vehicles 
Emission standards 
for light duty 
vehicles 
Emission standards 
for passenger cars 
Fiscal measures for 
for transport fuels 1993 - 1997 
1092 - 1996 
1992 - 1996 
1993 - .... 
1993 - .... 
1997 
1992 -3670MECU 
1260 MECU 
29.4 MECU 
70 MECU Premiums are related to maximum stocking rates, reducing 
CH4 emissions from ruminants per ha 
Financial support for zonal programmes, incl. environmental 
measures 
Financial support for afforestation 
Measures increase net primary productivity of trees and 
thereby potential C02 uptake. 
Measures contribute to C02 uptake 
Emission standards for CO, hydrocarbons and NO, 
Emission standards for CO, hydrocarbons and NO, 
Emission standards for CO, hydrocarbons and NO, 
Minimum excise duties on petrol and diesel fuels 
VIII 
Table E.2. Programmes, policies and measures adopted by the Council (continued). 
Name Period BudgetDescription 
Landfill directive 1994 - .... Environmental standards for landfilling of waste contributes to limitation of CH4 emissions 
IX 
5. National programmes of the Member States 
5.1. One of the pillars of the strategy of the European Community to limit greenhouse 
gas emissions consists of the national programmes adopted by the Member States. 
All Member States, except Belgium, already reported under the UN FCCC. 
Belgium submitted to the UN FCCC its national programmes under the EC 
Monitoring Mechanism for C02 and other greenhouse gases. 
5.2. All national reports include a 1990 emission inventory, a list of programmes, 
policies and measures adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and projections 
of greenhouse gas emissions in 2000. Since the projections included in the national 
reports have been compiled using various modelling tools and key input 
assumptions, they cannot be added together to arrive at projections for the 
European Community. 
5.3. Eight Member States expect an increase in C02 emissions in 2000 compared to 
1990: Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. One 
Member State expects to reach a stabilisation of C02 emissions in 1990: Sweden2. 
Five Member States are expecting a decrease in C02 emissions in 2000: Belgium, 
Denmark3, Luxembourg, the Netherlands4 and the United Kingdom. Germany 
provides a projection for C02 emissions in 2005 and expects a C02 emission 
reduction by that year. 
Eleven Member States provided projections of CH4 and N20 emissions in 2000. 
Two Member States expect an increase in CH4 emissions: Ireland and 
Luxembourg; Another two expect a stabilization: Austria and France; and the 
remaining seven Member States expect a reduction in CH4 emissions: Denmark, 
Finland, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Six 
Member States expect an increase in N20 emissions: Denmark, Finland, Greece, 
Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands; two Member States expect a 
stabilization: Austria and Italy; and three other Member States expect a reduction 
in N20 emissions: France, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Germany provided 
projections for 2005 and expects a reduction in both CH4 and N20 emissions. 
2 If based on temperature corrected C02 emissions in 1990. If projected figures are 
compared with actual C02 emissions in 1990, an increase in C02 emissions of 4% is 
estimated. 
3 If based on C02 emissions in 1990 which have been corrected for electricity import 
fluctuations. If projected figures are compared with actual C02 emissions in 1990, an 
increase in C02 emissions of 3% is estimated. 
4 If based on temperature corrected C02 emissions in 1990. If projected figures are 
compared with actual C02 emissions in 1990, C02 emissions are estimated to stabilize. 
X 
6. Projections of C02 emissions in 2000 
6.1. As a first attempt to project energy related C02 emissions in the EC, the larg& 
scale energy planning and forecasting model MIDAS (Model Integrating Demand 
and Supply) has been used. The model combines an econometric top-down 
approach with a micro-economic approach. Several scenarios have been applied in 
the model. The MIDAS model and the scenarios applied differ, in structure and in 
assumptions with regard to exogenous variables, from the models and scenarios 
used by Member States to forecast their C02 emissions. Results are therefore not 
comparable. 
However, it should be stressed that the simulations described in this report are not 
official simulations to assess the impact of climate change policies in the EC. The 
results of the simulations are provided as a first indication of future EC greenhouse 
gas emission. Further work is being undertaken to develop more accurate 
modelling tools and scenarios. 
6.2. Table E.3 shows the trend in energy related C02 emissions in EUR-15. 
Table E.3. Trends in energy related C02 emissions in the EC (15 Member States). (1000 
Gg.); preliminary results 
Ï99Ô 2000 2ÔÏÔ 2Ô2Ô 
Conventional Wisdom 3,155 3,326 3,557 3,648 
Battlefield 3,155 3,357 3,428 3,368 
Forum 3,155 3,089 2,986 2,855 
Hypermarket 3,155 3,325 3,597 3,686 
6.3. According to the Conventional Wisdom Scenario,which denotes the "business as 
usual" world representing a conventional wisdom view of the most likely 
evaluation of events, C02 emissions in the EC are expected to increase with 5% by 
the year 2000, with 13% by the year 2010 and with 16% by the year 2020 
(compared with 1990 levels). The results of the Hypermarket scenario, which gives 
a predominant role to market forces, liberalism and free trade, show a similar 
increase: an increase is expected of 5%, 14% and 17% for the years 2000, 2010 
and 2020 respectively. The Battlefield scenario,which assumes amongst others that 
the world reverts to isolation, power blocks and protectionism, results in a 
decreasing growth of C02 emissions: an increase of 6% in 2000, of 9% in 2010 
and of 7% in 2020. According to the Forum scenario,"which assumes amongst 
others that the world moves more to consensus and cooperative international 
structures with a strong role for public administration and intervention," a reduction 
in C02 emissions is expected: 2% in 2000, 5% in 2010 and 10% in 2020. 
XI 
7. Adaptation and vulnerability 
7.1. Since the territory of the European Community consists of a rich variety of 
landscapes and also the climate varies considerably among the different parts of the 
Community, the possible impacts of climate change can differ enormously 
depending on local or regional circumstances. 
7.2. Assuming a doubling of atmospheric C02 concentrations, average winter 
temperatures in northern Europe are expected to increase by 2-5 °C, while the 
winters in the central and southern region can be 1-3 °C warmer. Average summer 
temperatures are expected to increase by 1-4 0c throughout all of Europe. The 
change of temperatures and precipitation has enormous impacts for agriculture, 
depending on the region these impacts could be both positive and negative, despite 
of partially positive impacts, negative impacts will predominate for agriculture in 
general. Sea level rise is a potential threat to the large coastal area of the European 
Community (approximately 89 000 km of coastline, without counting the coasts of 
the small islands), especially to low lying lands. The impact of major storms will 
become more widespread as the sea surface rises. Especially in the North and 
Mediterranean Seas, the impacts of storms are a matter of particular concern. 
Analysis of economic impacts show that economic costs will most likely be the 
overall consequence of global warming for the EC, although some sectors and 
regions may benefit. 
7.3. One of the key targets of the Fifth Action Programme of the EC "Towards 
Sustainability" is the integrated management of coastal zones. The Commission is 
currently preparing a Communication on the integrated management of coastal 
zones. It was felt that instruments exist but that they need to be better 
implemented. Coordination is seen as a means to that end. A three years 
demonstration programme is proposed in order to investigate and demonstrate the 
conditions of coordination, horizontally between the multiple sectors of activity 
(integration) and vertically between the levels of competence (subsidiarity). 
Research and development activities will provide a scientific basis for sound 
ecological management of the coastal zones. 
7.4. In June 1994, the European Community signed the Resolution on strategies for a 
process of long-term adaptation of forests in Europe to climate change. European 
research on the linkages between climate change and forests ecosystems is being 
intensified. 
8. Finance and international cooperation 
8.1. Since the adoption of the Fifth Action Programme "Towards Sustainability", 
progress has been made in integrating environmental requirements into cooperation 
with developing countries and countries with economies in transition. 
Environmental concerns are now reflected in most of the bilateral cooperation 
contracts established between the Community and its partner countries. 
8.2. Cooperation with non Community countries, the so called "third countries" relating 
to climate change, inter alia, takes place in the frame of the SYNERGY initiative 
and the European Energy Charter. For all cooperation projects likely to have an 
impact on the environment an Environment Impact Assessment is required. The 
Commission has proposed to change this initiative in a programme. The objective 
XII 
of the SYNERGY initiative is to improve the long term world energy situation and 
hence, Community energy security, by helping other countries to make effective 
energy policy decisions. By encouraging energy planning, the rational use of 
energy and counselling and training, SYNERGY contributes to the reduction of 
greenhouse gas emissions. The Programme is to last five years and has a budget of 
50 MECU. The European Energy Charter was signed in December 1994. The 
charter includes a political declaration committing its signatories to cooperate in 
trade, investment and other policies in all energy sectors. These efforts should lead 
to the creation of a true energy market throughout Europe. Environment protection 
and more efficient use of energy brought about by treaties and protocols in the 
frame of the charter will have a positive impact on limiting C02 and other 
greenhouse gas emissions in particular by encouraging market prices, and hence, 
more efficient energy usage. 
8.3. Cooperation with developing countries takes place in the framework of general and 
more specific cooperation programmes. The specific programmes include research 
cooperation, energy and forestry related issues. The research cooperation has been 
targeted through the "Life sciences and technologies for Developing Countries" on 
areas of relevance for global change issues, and in particular those relative to the 
use and management of ecosystems, cooperation on energy and forestry related 
issues have made possible the financing of projects relative to renewable energy in 
Asian and Latin America countries (ALA) and to conservation and sustainable 
management of tropical and subtropical forests in the African, Caribbean and 
Pacific countries (ACP). 
The most comprehensive of all the general agreements with developing countries 
are those with the ACP-countries, the so-called Lomé Conventions. Under Lomé 
IV (1990-1995), environment has become one of the main areas of cooperation. 
Within the framework of efforts to protect the environment and restore natural 
balances, cooperation aims to promote specific operations concerning the 
conservation of natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, the protection of 
ecosystems and the control of drought, desertification and deforestation. Another 
main area of cooperation is energy development, in particular energy efficiency and 
the promotion of new and renewable sources of energy. 
Since 1976, the Community has been pursuing a policy of financial, technical and, 
more recently, also economic cooperation with the ALA-developing countnes. 
Under the new guidelines for Community cooperation with ALA countries, long-
term priorities are the protection of the environment and natural resources, and 
sustainable development. 10 % of the total budget for the period 1991-1995, has 
been set aside for projects specifically aimed at protecting the environment, in 
particular tropical forests. 
8.4. EC cooperation with the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) and the 
former Soviet Union is mainly based on the PHARE (Poland and Hungary 
Assistance to the Restructuring of the Economy) and the TACIS (Technical 
Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States) programmes. The PHARE 
programme is an EC initiative which supports the political and economic 
development of the CEECs. Of relevance to the climate change issue are 
particularly the activities related to energy. 
XIII 
The overall aim of the TACIS programme is to contribute to the transition towards 
a market economy of the independent states of the former Soviet Union. Since 
1993, the TACIS Regulation includes a specific reference to the environment. 
Energy is specified as one of the priority sectors of the TACIS programme. 
Important to note is that each project in the energy sector contains an energy 
saving component. 
9. Research, demonstration and development 
9.1. Research on climate change is embedded in the EC Framework Programmes of 
Research and Development. Within these framework programmes, the specific 
research programmes on environmental issues, non-nuclear energy and marine 
science are of particular importance to climate change. Research budgets in all 
three areas have been largely increased during the last years. 
9.2. During the Second Framework Programme of Research and Development (1987-
1991), the European Programme on Climatology and natural Hazards (EPOCH) 
had the strongest liaison with the climate change issue. Research focused on: past 
climates and climate change, climate processes and models, climatic impacts and 
climate-related hazards, and seismic hazard. 
9.3. The emphasis on environmental research has increased in the Third Framework 
Programme of Research and Development (1990-1994). The Environment 
programme consisted of the following research areas: participation in global change 
programmes, environmental technologies and engineering, research on economic 
and social aspects of environmental issues, and technological and natural risks. 
9.4. The Fourth Framework Programme of Research and Development (1994-1998) 
includes a specific programme on Environment and climate. The programme covers 
four themes: the natural environment, environmental quality and global change; 
environmental technologies; space techniques applied to environmental monitoring 
and research, and human dimensions of environmental change. The Joint Research 
Centre (JRC) will also contribute, through its own programme of activities, to the 
attainment of the Community objectives in the areas covered by the programme on 
Environment and climate. 
9.5. Two successive programmes regarding new energy technologies, JOULE I (1989-
1992) and JOULE II (1990-1994), have been established by the Community. Both 
programmes addressed the development of clean and efficient energy technologies 
in the three following areas: rational use of energy (in industry, transport and 
building), advanced technologies for fossil fuels, and renewable energies; a large 
activity about energy-economy-environment modelling is also undertaken which 
has been focused in particular on the C02 strategy. The environment dimension 
which was already an integral part of JOULE I has been strengthened in JOULE II. 
9.6. A specific programme on non-nuclear energy is continuing under the Fourth 
Framework Programme. It is called JOULE-THERMIE. This programme will 
integrate for the first time the R&D and the Demonstration activities. R&D will 
give more emphasis to the renewable energy and transport, whereas demonstration 
activity will support more rational use of energy, fossil fuel technology and 
dissemination, a substantial support to the RDT strategy will be ensured and 
XIV 
focused on a Climate Change technology strategy and on the internalisation of 
environmental costs of energy. 
9.7. The European Community's Marine Science and Technology (MAST) programmes 
aim to introduce the necessary Community dimension to various on-going research 
activities of the Member States. MAST intends to contribute to establishing a 
scientific and technological basis for the exploration, exploitation, management and 
protection of Europe's coastal waters and the seas surrounding the EC's Member 
States and thereby to achieve a better balance in the marine science potential of the 
various areas of the EC. 
10. Education, training and public awareness 
10.1. The success of policies and measures addressing the problem of climate change 
will depend to a large extent on the decisions and actions of the general public. At 
the EC level, information, education and training programmes concerning climate 
change and energy use mainly take place within the scope of (sectoral) policy 
programmes, such as energy supply, transport, urban development and agriculture. 
10.2. Information for the wider public is a key element of the SAVE, ALTENER, 
THERMIE programmes and the action on Energy Management at Regional and 
Urban level. THERMIE's dissemination actions include a network of some forty 
Organisations for the Promotion of Energy Technology (OPET) focusing on 
distributing and promoting innovative energy technologies across Europe, including 
Central and Eastern European countries and the former Soviet Union. 
10.3. The EC supports pan-European environmental campaigns of local authorities 
aiming at local sustainability, or significant local contribution to global 
sustainability, such as Sustainable Cities and Towns, the Car Free Cities Club and 
Cities for Climate Protection. 
10.4. Training and education belong to the accompanying measures of the EC research 
programmes. An example of these activities are the courses which are organised by 
the European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards. 
XV 
1. INTRODUCTION 
The Treaty establishing the European Community (EC) entered into force in 1958. Since 
then, it has been modified several times to allow new States to accede to membership 
and to reinforce and enlarge its objectives. The two major texts modifying the original 
Treaty are the Single European Act, which entered into force in 1987, and the Treaty on 
European Union known also as the Treaty of Maastricht. The latter entered into force at 
the 1st November 1993. Until 1 January 1995, the European Community consisted of the 
following Member States: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, 
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom. Since 1 January 
1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden also became Members of the European Community. 
Although this communication mainly deals with the the period 1990-1994. relevant 
information of the three new Member States have been included. In addition, relevant 
developments on community and national level since 1 January 1995 have been 
addressed as well. 
The main objectives of the European Community are set out in article 2 of the Treaty on 
European Union: "to promote throughout the Community a harmonious and balanced 
development of economic activities, sustainable and non-inflationary growth respecting 
the environment, a high degree of convergence of economic performance, a high level of 
employment and of social protection, the raising of the standard of living and quality of 
life, and economic and social cohesion and solidarity among Member States"5. The 
Treaty on European Union has introduced as a principal objective the promotion of 
sustainable and non-inflationary growth respecting the environment. The Treaty 
recognizes that environmental protection requirements must be integrated into the 
definition and implementation of other Community policies. One of the objectives of 
Community environmental policy is to promote measures at the international level to deal 
with regional or worldwide environmental problems. 
The Fifth Environment Action Programme "Towards Sustainability", adopted by the 
Commission in 1992 and its broad strategy of which was agreed by the Council in 1993 
(OJ C138/5, 17.5.1993), is the process by which Community environment policy is 
moving forward. It lays out a strategy for reconciling economic development to the 
protection of the environment (sustainability). For the first time, the programme 
recognizes the need for a comprehensive and targeted approach towards environmental 
issues at Community level. It takes as its starting point the need to involve all the 
relevant "actors" of society in a spirit of shared responsibility to achieve sustainable 
development. It focuses on five main target areas - industry, agriculture, energy, transport 
and tourism - where the environmental problems are the most profound and where action 
can have most benefits for the environment as a whole. The programme recognizes that 
the legislative or regulatory approach is not sufficient and recommends a broadening of 
Art. 2, Treaty establishing the European Community (as amended) by Art. G(l) 
and G(2) of the Treaty on European Union. 
1 
the range of instruments, to include economic/fiscal instruments, financial support 
mechanisms, and horizontal instruments such as information, education, research and 
development, and data gathering. 
The tasks entrusted to the European Community are carried out by the following 
institutions: an elected European Parliament, a Council consisting of a representative of 
each Member State at ministerial level, a Commission consisting of independent 
Members and a Court of Justice to ensure the interpretation and application of the Treaty. 
In order to carry out their tasks, the Commission and the Council acting jointly or in 
cooperation with the European Parliament can make Regulations, issue Directives, take 
Decisions, make Recommendations or deliver Opinions. Regulations are of general 
application. They are binding in their entirety and are directly applicable in all Member 
States. Directives are binding as to the result to be achieved, but leave to Member States 
the choice of form and methods. That means that Directives need to be incorporated into 
national legislation within a certain time limit fixed by the Directive itself. Decisions are 
binding in their entirety upon those to whom they are addressed. Finally, 
Recommendations and Opinions have no binding force. 
To enact Community legislation under normal conditions, a proposal from the 
Commission is necessary. Acting on the basis of such proposal, the legislative bodies 
under the Treaty (the Council, and to some extent, the Parliament), assisted by some 
advisory bodies, adopt the final text. 
Action by the Community regarding environmental issues has to be taken in accordance 
with, inter alia, the principle of subsidiarity. This principle states that the Community 
should only take action if and in so far as the objectives of the proposed actions cannot 
be sufficiently achieved by the member sates and can therefore, by reason of the scale or 
effects of the proposed action, be better achieved by the Community. 
The European Community6 signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 
(UN FCCC) at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio 
de Janeiro in 1992. As a follow-up, the Commission submitted a proposal for a Council 
Decision concerning the conclusion of the UN FCCC in December 1992. This proposal 
was inter alia founded on Article 22 of the Convention which allows ratification, 
acceptance or approval by States and by Regional Economic Integration Organisations. In 
the proposed Council Decision it was considered that "since the Community and its 
Member States share competence in the areas covered by the Convention, it is necessary 
according to the Community and its Member States to become Contracting Parties so that 
all the obligations under the Convention can be properly fulfilled". More specifically it 
was considered necessary that the Community became a contracting Party to the 
Convention and assumed the relevant responsibilities in order to comply with the 
emission stabilisation objective of the Convention while not all the Member States were 
ready to meet that objective individually. 
In December 1993, the Council agreed to adopt the Commissions' proposal for the 
Council Decision, "recognizing the importance for the Community of ratifying the 
Throughout the text the term "European Community" is used, since under the 
Treaty of the European Economic Community has been converted into European 
Community. In this communication, the term European Community refers to either 
the 12 (EUR-12) or 15 Member States (EUR-15). The "Commission of the 
European Communities" is the formal name of the European Commission. 
z 
Convention before it enters into force and alongside its Member States, so as to allow the 
fulfilment of the commitment relating to the limitation of C02 emissions in the 
Community by the Community as a whole through action by the Community and its 
Member States, within their respective competences". As a result, the European 
Community ratified the UN FCCC on 21 December 1993. On the same day, the 
threshold of 50 ratifications was met, leading to the Convention entering into force on 
21 March 1994. 
As a Party to the Convention, the European Community accepts, among others, the 
commitment to adopt policies and take corresponding measures aimed at returning 
emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels, individually or jointly, by the year 2000. 
With respect to C02, the European Community set itself the objective to stabilize 
emissions by the year 2000 at 1990 levels, in the terms agreed by the Council of 
Ministers of 29 October 1990 . 
The present Communication of the European Community under the UN FCCC explicitly 
describes policies and measures to address climate change which are or will be pursued 
at the Community level. However, the commitments of the European Community are to 
be reached with complementary Community and national programmes. Only a short 
summary of the national communications/programmes is included in order to provide a 
complete overview of activities taking place within the European Community. 
SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 
2.1. Introduction 
The Member States of the European Community vary enormously in size, population, 
geographical and economic profile. In this chapter, an overview is provided of 
background information relevant to this report. Basic data and characteristics of the 
Member States are provided, including data relating to geography, climate, society, 
economy and energy. 
2.2. Geographical setting of the European Community 
The European Community, as a geographical entity, is relatively modest in size, but 
owing to the restricted area it occupies, its situation and favourable natural conditions, it 
is a densely populated part of the world. 
In a comparatively small area, the European continent contains a rich variety of 
landscapes. Four major morphological zones can be distinguished: 
- the North European Plain, site of many major cities and fertile agricultural 
lands; 
- the central and southern European Highlands, comprising the Sierra Nevada, 
Pyrenees, and Alps; 
- the old Fennoscandian Shield and Caledonian range, consisting of the 
Scandinavian highlands and the north and western part of Ireland and the UK; 
and 
- the littoral zone of the Mediterranean. 
The coastal zones of the European Community constitute a unique environmental 
heritage, with important ecological, cultural and economic resources. As an indication of 
the scale, the European Community has about 89. 000 km of coastline excluding the 
small islands and inland seas (CEC, 1993) 
The territory of the European Community is made up of a wide variety of land of 
varying quality, almost a quarter of which is arable (27%), approximately a th*ird 
wooded (35%) and a substantial proportion grassland (18%). Table 2.1 provides an 
overview of land use in the Member States, and Figure 2.1 shows the relative 
contribution of land use in the European Community. 
Forests are unevenly distributed, and the proportion of territory they occupy varies from 
one country to another. Finland (69%) and Sweden (62%) have the highest proportion of 
forest cover, while Ireland (5%) and the Netherlands (8%) are well below the 
Community average (20%). Ireland has the highest proportion of agricultural land: 80% 
of the total area consists of agricultural land. 
Table 2.1. Agricultural land, wooded areas and other land (km2) in the Member States 
(figures provided for 1991). 
Agricultural area Wooded Other Total area 
Crop 
lands1 Meadows2 area land 
Austria 15,060 19,860 32,100 16,700 83,860 
Belgium 8,270 5,280 6,170 10,798 30,518 
Denmark 25,480 2,080 4,450 11,083 43,093 
Finland 25,130 1,200 232,220 79,600 338,150 
France 192,500 111,040 148,720 96,826 549,096 
Germany 119,100 52,430 104,120 • 81,297 356,947 
Greece 39,050 52,550 26,200 14,157 131,957 
Ireland 9,230 46,900 3,200 10,955 70,285 
Italy 119,700 48,750 67,680 65,181 301,311 
Luxembourg 560 696 890 446 2,586 
Netherlands 9,220 10,640 3,500 18,120 41,480 
Portugal 31,730 8,380 33,000 18,876 91,986 
Spain 199,460 102,600 159,150 43,585 504,759 
Sweden 27,680 5,520 280,200 136,560 449,960 
United Kingdom 65,910 111,090 24,250 42,880 244,138 
European Community 888,080 579,010 1,125,930 647,133 3,240,153 
Arable land and permanent crops. 
2 Permanent meadows and pastures. 
Source: Eurostat. 
B« Legenda 
Arable land and permanent crops 
Permanent meadows and pastures 
Wooded area 
Other land 
Figure 2.1. Land use in the European Community. 
Source: Eurostat 
2.3. Climate profile 
This section deals with the EUR-12 since no data could yet be obtained from the three 
new Member States. 
Four main types of climate can be identified in the European Community: 
the maritime climate, with mild winters, cool summers and constant humidity. 
This climate type dominates the western edge of the European continent. 
the semi-continental climate, with cold, dry winters and hot, stormy summers. 
The eastern fringes of the European Community is dominated by this type of 
climate. 
the Mediterranean climate, with mild, wet winters, hot dry summers and 
infrequent but heavy rainfall. This climate is found in the coastal areas of the 
Mediterranean. 
the climate found in mountain areas, which depends on altitude and exposure to 
sun, wind and rain. 
The average temperature and precipitation varies considerably among countries. An 
overview is provided in Table 2.2. The coldest country is Belgium, with average 
temperatures of 7.2 °C (minimum) and 9.7 °C (maximum). The warmest country is 
Greece with average temperatures of 14.1 °C (minimum) and 18.2 °C (maximum). Spain 
shows the most variation in rainfall: minimum rainfall amounts to 218 mm per year, 
maximum rainfall amounts to 1702 mm per year. 
Table 2.2. Minimum and maximum average temperature and precipitation in Eur-12 . 
Long term averages. 
Average temperature 
over the year (°C) 
Min. Max. Precipitation (mm H20) 
Min. Max. 
Belgium 7.2 
Denmark 7.5 
France 9.5 
Germany 7.8 
Greece 14.1 
Ireland 9.0 
Italy 11.5 
Luxembourg 8.4 
Netherlands 8.5 
Portugal 13.2 
Spain 11.0 
United Kingdom 8.4 9.7 
8.1 
14.9 
10.6 
18.2 
10.6 
18.4 
9.7 
17.2 
18.5 
10.9 824 
551 
493 
560 
422 
781 
424 
856 
562 
527 
218 
496 1191 
874 
1236 
979 
1044 
1502 
1142 
777 
1064 
1702 
967 
Source: Eurostat 
An indicator for the need for space heating is the number of degree-days, a measure of 
the severity of the cold dunng a specific period of time. The number of degree-days 
equals to: (18 °C - Tm) * d, if Tm is lower than or equal to 15 °C (heating threshold); and 
are nil, if Tm is greater than 15 °C; where Tm is the mean temperature and d is the number 
of days. Figure 2.2 provides an overview of the number of degree-days in the Member 
States. The figure shows that the greater part of the Member States has a relatively high 
need for space heating. No similar data are available for the need for air-conditionmg in 
the Member States. 
3SOO 
3000 
SSOO 
^OOO 
O eçg ree-cdeiy s 
1 ooo 
soo .-:•:• ,:• -- ••• t_H 
-—• 1 ' '—~— r" •' ' •; r—*~~ 
; 1 ' ——— ——; • "/:•-
B CDK. O QR E F= I f=< I 1_ ML F> Ul 
Figure 2.2. Number of degree-days1 in the EUR-15 (figures provided for 1991). 
Source: Eurostat (EU. 12) 
The number of degree-days equals to: 
(18 °C "Tm) * d, if Tm is lower than or equal to 15 °C (heating threshold); 
and are nil, if Tm is greater than 15 °C; 
where Tm is the mean temperature and d is the number of days. 
2.4. Social profile 
In 1993, the total population of the 15 Member States of the European Community, 
amounted to 370 million. This represented 6.5% of the total world population, compared 
with 9.8% in 1960 and the projected figure of 4.2% in 2020. This drop in the share of 
the world's population is due to a relative low increase in population compared to the 
increase in total world population. 
The average population density of the European Community amounts to 114 inhabitants 
per km2. In the more densely populated regions this rises to over 300 per km2. The zones 
with a high population density are concentrated along a diagonal line from north-west 
England to the north of Italy through Belgium, the Netherlands and the industrialized 
regions of the Ruhr in Germany. 
The total population, the population density and the increase in population varies 
considerably among the Member States. An overview of population statistics is provided 
in Table 2.3. The most density populated country of the European Community is the 
Netherlands (369 inhabitants per km2), which also has the highest population increase 
(33% increase between 1960 and 1990). The average population increase in the European 
Community between 1960 and 1990 amounts to 17 %. 
The total number of households in the European Community in 1990 amounts to 137 
million, while the average household size is 2.7 persons. 
Table 2.3. Population profile in the Member States. 
Member State 
Austria 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Finland 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
Portugal 
Spain 
Sweden 
United Kingdom 
EUR-15 Total area 
(km2) Population 
(1000) 
1993 Population 
density 
1993 Population 
increase in % 
1960 - 1993 
83 860 7 991 95 13 
30 518 10 084 330 11 
43 093 5 189 120 13 
338 150 5 066 15 14 
549 086 57 655 105 26 
356 947 81 179 227 12 
131 957 10 380 79 25 
70 285 3 563 51 26 
301 311 57 049 189 14 
2 586 398 154 26 
41 480 15 290 369 33 
91 986 9 876 107 11 
504 795 39 083 77 28 
449 960 8 719 19 16 
244 138 58 191 238 11 
3 240 153 369 715 114 17 
Source: Eurostat 
2.5. Economie profile 
In 1993, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Community (expressed in 
constant prices of 1985) amounted approximately to 4400 billion ECU. The EC economy 
consists of a rather heterogeneous entity composed of a limited number of big economies 
and some medium-sized and smaller economies. Table 2.4 provides an overview of the 
GDP and the annual growth rate in the Member States. Germany, France, Italy and the 
United Kingdom, the four Member States with the highest GDP, account for 75% of the 
total GDP in the EC and, are therefore the driving forces of the EC's economic activities. 
The level of development of the national economies in the European Community varies 
considerably among the Member States. Figure 2.3 shows the GDP per capita in the 
Member States in 1993. The GDP per capita of the majority of the Member States lies in 
between 11 500 ECU and 16 500 ECU (figures in 1985 prices and exchange rates). Four 
Member States have a GDP per capita which is considerably lower than the average GDP 
per capita for the European Community, ranging from 4 200 ECU to 10 500 ECU. The 
trend in GDP growth, however, shows that those countries have the highest annual 
growth rate in GDP and thus are currently catching up with the other countries in the 
European Community. 
Table 2.4. Gross Domestic Products at market prices in the European Community 
(expressed in 1985 prices and 1985 exchange rates). 
Member State GDP 1993 Annual % change 
(bill. ECU) 1970-1993 
Austria 104.6 2.7% 
Belgium 125.3 2.3% 
Denmark 85.1 2.0% 
Finland 73.3 2.3% 
France 808.0 2.4% 
Germany 1049.6 2.5% 
Greece 59.3 2.8% 
Ireland 37.2 4.4% 
Italy 658.5 2.6% 
Luxembourg 7.7 4.0% 
Netherlands 204.7 2.3% 
Portugal 41.2 3.5% 
Spain 276.9 2.9% 
Sweden 141.3 1.5% 
United Kingdom 708.7 2.0% 
EUR-15 • 4381.2 2.4% 
Source: Eurostat 
soooo 
-i sooo 
-i oooo 
sooo 
Figure 2.3. GDP per capita in the European Community in 1993 ( in ECU at 1985 prices 
and 1985 exchange rates). 
Source: Eurostat 
Service sectors (both market and non-market services) are the most important economic 
sectors in the European Community. Their relative share in economic activities is still 
growing. Manufacturing industries are the second most important sector. The importance 
of the agricultural sector is currently decreasing. Table 2.5 shows the Gross Value Added 
(GVA) per economic sector. 
Table 2.5. Relative contribution of sectoral Gross Value Added in the European 
Community (in current prices and exchange rates); EUR-12. 
10 
Sector GVA 1992 GVA 1992 Annual change of 
(mill. ECU) (% of total GVA) GVA 1980 - 1992 
(%) 
Agriculture/Forestry 131,832 2.6 % £8 % 
Energy 241,028 4.7 % 6.1 % 
Manufacturing 1,139,325 22.3 % 5.9 % 
Building & Construction 312,820 6.1 % 6.0% 
Market Services 2,520,722 49.4 % 8.8 % 
Non-Market Services 753,758 14.8 % 7.4 % 
Total of Branches 5,099,491 100 % 7.4% 
Source: Eurostat. 
Transport 
Transport has made a major contribution to economic growth in the European 
Community .It has enabled the achievement of important economies of scale in 
production and led to increased competition. In the EC, the transport sector accounts for 
approximately 7-8% of the GDP and 4-5% of the total salaried workforce (White Paper 
on the Common Transport Policy ,COM (92)494 final 2.12.1992). The transport sector in 
the EC is characterised by strong growth. Since 1970, the overall annual growth in inland 
transport has averaged 3.1% for passengers and 2.3% for goods (White Paper on the 
Common Transport Policy, COM (92)494 final, 2.12.1992). Since 1980, the increase in 
air passenger transport has averaged 6.2% per annum (CEC, 1993). 
Transport is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in the Community. Road 
transport accounts for 85% of the C02 emissions and 90% of the CH4 of inland 
transport emissions. Passenger cars are responsible for 45% and commercial vehicles for 
32% (Green Paper on Transport and Environment; COM(92),46 final, 20.02.92). The 
average number of cars in the European Community per 1000 inhabitants amounted in 
1993 to 420 (Eurostat). Air transport is the second single most important source of C02 
emissions, with a share of 11%. Rail and inland waterways account for 1% and 3% 
respectively (Eurostat). 
2.6.Energy profile 
As a result of developments in final energy demand and in inputs for electricity 
generation, EC Gross Inland Consumption (GIC) of energy in 1990, at 1239 Mtoe, was 
17.7% higher than in 1974. However, this figure hides large fluctuations in the mid-
seventies and early eighties, due to the oil shocks of that period. Table 2.6 shows the 
Gross Inland Consumption in the EC. 
11 
Table 2.6. EC Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe). 
1974 1986 1990 19937 Average 
Annual 
Increase 
Solids 
Oil 
Natural gas 
Other 235 
626 
137 
56 243 
515 
193 
219 245 
532 
216 
247 247 
561 
252 
271 0.3% 
0.6% 
3.3% 
8.6% 
Total 1053 1169 1239 1331 1.2% 
Source: IEA and Eurostat 
The increase is entirely due to non-fossil fuels, mainly nuclear power. Furthermore, in 
1990 consumption of fossil fuels was at the same level as in 1974 (source: Eurostat). 
For its energy provision, the EC depends on imports. The degree of self-sufficiency, i.e. 
total domestic production divided by GIC, rose from 37% in 1974 to 57% in 1986, 
declining again to 52% in 1992. 
The composition of indigenous energy production is provided in Table 2.7. 
Table 2.7. EC Primary Production (Mtoe). 
1974 1986 1990 1993' Average 
Annual 
Increase 
Solids 189 176 
Oil 15 150 
Natural gas 130 126 
Nuclear 22 155 
Hydro and wind 21 23 
Geothermal 2 2 
Other 10 42 155 
115 
131 
180 
23 
2 
42 156 
125 
158 
198 
25 
3 
46 -1.0% 
11.9% 
1.1% 
12.3% 
0.8% 
1.6% 
8.3% 
Total 389 675 647 709 3.2% 
Source: IEA and Eurostat 
7Data for 1993 include the NEW BUNDESLANDER and DDR. 
8Data for 1993 include the NEW BUNDESLANDER and DDR. 
12 
Table 2.8 relates the development of energy intensity, measured as the quotient of GIC_ 
and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, the development of GIC per inhabitant is 
shown. 
Table 2.8. Indicators. 
1974 1986 1990 19939 
GIC/GDP (toe/1985 MECU) 358 312 294 304 
GIC/Capita (kgoe/inhabitant) 3027 3253 3401 3600 
Source: IEA and Eurostat 
From 1974 to 1993 the total GDP of EC Member States rose by an annual average of 
2.1%. Energy intensity declined on average by an annual percentage of 0.9%. GIC per 
capita rose annually by 0.9% on average. 
Regarding Final Energy Consumption by economic sectors, developments from 1974 
until 1993 are given in Table 2.9. 
Table 2.9. Final Energy Consumption (FEC) by economic sectors (Mtoe). 
1974 1986 1990 199310 
Industry 304 233 251 253 
Transport 150 208 247 271 
Domestic and Tertiary 281 332 320 367 
TOTAL 736 773 8Ï7 89Ô 
Source: IEA and Eurostat 
In industry, there has been a 40% improvement in energy intensity (FEC/production) 
from "1974 until 1993". Industrial production rose by 28%, while FEC declined. In 
transport energy demand has grown faster than the overall economic activity. 
T>ata for 1993 include the NEW BUNDESLANDER and DDR. 
10Data for 1993 include the NEW BUNDESLANDER and DDR. 
13 
3. THE EC EMISSION INVENTORY 
3.1. Introduction 
This chapter provides a summary of the 1990 emission inventory of greenhouse gases for 
the EC. The following gases will be discussed: C02, CH4, N20, CO, NOx and NMVOCs. 
Emission estimates have been calculated on the basis of the national inventories of the 15 
Member States and by using the "IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas 
inventories" as far as possible. A more detailed description of the approach applied to 
arrive at the EC inventory is provided in Section 3.2. The emission inventories of each of 
the 15 Member States are included in Annex 1. Details on activity data and emission 
factors have not been included in this Communication since these have all been reported 
in national reports or Eurostat and/or CORINAIR databases. In Annex 1, reference is 
made to the information sources. 
3.2. Inventory methodology 
Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Community in 1990 are presented in Table 
3.1. 
The EC inventory for the year 1990 has been compiled based on the inventories of the 
15 individual Member States. The following sources have been used to compile the 
emission inventories of the individual Member States: 
National communications prepared by the Member States under the UN 
Framework Convention on Climate Change and/or national programmes under 
the EC Decision on a Monitoring Mechanism for C02 and other greenhouse 
gases. In general, the inventories reported in these national reports followed the 
IPCC guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. 
CORINAIR inventory programme. 1990 databases have been used, which were 
provided to the European Environment Agency by the Member States. 
Eurostat. C02 emission estimates have been compiled from Eurostat energy 
balances and harmonized emission factors derived by Eurostat from an analysis 
of emission factors used by the Member States in about 1990. 
To estimate total greenhouse gas emissions in the European Community, total greenhouse 
gas emissions in each of the Member States were added together11. Estimates of 
emissions in the Member States were primarily taken from the national reports. If no 
11 Estimates provided in Table 3.1 are provisional figures, updated up to June 1995. 
14 
nationally reported emission estimates were available, CORINAIR figures were used. 
Fuel combustion related C02 emissions reported in national reports and/or CORINAIR 
were compared with Eurostat C02 figures. Nationally reported (non-CORINAIR) 
emission estimates were used if these figures were available, and consistent with Eurostat 
figures. However, if the nationally reported estimate was significantly lower than the 
Eurostat estimate, the Eurostat estimate was used since it was assumed that the nationally 
reported value was likely to be incomplete. If no nationally reported estimates were 
available, CORINAIR figures were similarly compared with Eurostat. 
It should be noted that the national reports of the Member States and/or CORINAIR 
databases are not complete and thus the emission inventories for each of the Member 
States do not always cover all source categories identified in the IPCC guidelines for 
national greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the sub-totals of the various categories 
presented in Table 3.1 do not add up to the category totals in Table 3.1. This apparent 
inconsistency can only be resolved when the sub-totals for all Member States become 
available. 
Since nationally reported inventories were not available for all EC Member States, and 
CORINAIR does not include removals of C02, C02 emissions and/or removals from the 
category land use change have not been quantified in the EC inventory. 
15 
Table 3.1. EC inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. 1990. (Gg). Provisional estimates. 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in European Community (EUR-15) - 1990 (Gg). 
CO, CH4 N2Q NO, CO NMVOC 
1 AU eneigy 3142840 5599 156 13290 46229 8422 
la Fuel combustion 3134740 794 156 13202 46137 7697 
lal Energy & transformation 1 1173200 49 66 2947 1215 105 
la2 Industry 606600 60 29 1412 3191 99 
la3 Transport 704900 206 36 7883 33718 6529 
la4 Commercial/institutional 325000 84 12 231 2164 342 
la5 Residential 265900 286 12 263 4037 ' 464 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 34500 27 0 268 1048 155 
la7 Other 25400 6 0 191 227 61 
la8 Biomass 13200 87 2 29 1711 111 
lb Fugitive fuel 8100 4806 1 88 92 849 
lbl Oil & gas 7800 1485 0 88 59 792 
lb2 Coal mining 0 2817 0 0 0 0 
2 Industrial processes 130730 40 351 151 2811 1060 
2a Iron & steel 4300 9 0 12 1563 - 21 
2b Non-ferrous metals 4800 0 2 1 398 0 
2c Inorganic chemicals 8700 6 90 60 6 31 
2d Organic chemicals 2600 5 234 0 14 584 
2e Non-metallic minerals 102400 2 0 14 0 0 
2f Other 2000 3 0 14 224 260 
3 Solvent use 300 0 6 0 0 4045 
3a Paint application 100 0 0 0 0 1399 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 50 0 0 0 0 352 
3c Chemical prods manuf/proc 50 0 0 0 0 470 
3d Other 100 0 6 0 0 1327 
4 Agriculture 500 , 10361 393 50 2763 739 
4a Enteric fermentation 500 6267 0 0 0 0 
4b Animal wastes 0 2571 15 0 0 381 
4c Rice cultivation 0 98 1 0 0 0 
4d Agricultural soils 0 299 277 0 0 178 
4e Agricultural waste burning 0 141 64 43 2362 131 
4f Savannah burning 0 0 0 0 0 0 
6 Waste 11050 8669 20 48 125 109 
6a Landfills 5400 7912 0 5 58 67 
6b Wastewater 0 233 9 0 0 0 
6c Other 5650 90 11 21 51 13 
Total emissions 3285620 24671 928 13546 52006 14397 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 113600 
56500 
243600 
Notes: 
Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Community are based on estimates of emissions in the 15 
Member States, updated up to June 1995. 
Sub-totals of categories (e.g. lbl and lb2) do not always add up to total emissions per category (e.g. lb). This is due 
to the fact that the emission inventories for each of the Member States do not always cover all categories as 
identified in the draft IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. 
Emissions from Final Non Energy Consumption (including feedstocks) have not been included in total emissions. 
Therefore, total emissions are underestimated in comparison with the IPCC methodology. Emissions from Final Non 
16 
Energy Consumption (FNEC) are based on the total carbon contained in the products. The addition of total emissions 
and emissions from FNEC would therefore produce an overestimation compared to the IPCC methodology. 
C02 emissions and/or removals from Land Use Change are not known for many countries and hence have not been 
included in this table. Non-C02 greenhouse gas emissions from Land Use Change have neither been estimated. 
3.3. Feedstocks 
The emission estimates presented in Table 3.1 are structured according to the reporting 
instructions of the IPCC guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories. However, the 
category "Final Non Energy Consumption (FNEC)" was added to the table, since 
inconsistencies exist between the detailed IPCC approach to calculate energy-related C02 
emissions and the IPCC reporting instructions. In general, national reports of the Member 
States do not explicitly describe their approach to calculate emissions from feedstocks. 
For reasons of consistency, EUROSTAT estimates have been used for each of the 
Member States to calculate feedstock emissions. These have been reported separately in 
the category "Final Non Energy Consumption (FNEC)". 
It should be noted that this approach results in lower total C02 emissions than the 
approach followed by the IPCC guidelines. The latter includes carbon emitted by the use 
of feedstocks in their total estimates of C02 emissions from energy sources, where the 
approach taken here excludes emissions from feedstocks from total emissions. The 
emissions reported in the category "Final Non Energy Consumption" should be seen as 
the potential emissions from feedstocks and other nOn-energy uses. This category also 
includes the carbon actually stored in products and not emitted into the atmosphere. 
Thus, total C02 emissions as expressed in Table 3.1 are underestimated compared with 
the IPCC methodology, while the addition of total C02 emissions and "Final Non Energy 
Emissions" would produce an overestimation. 
3.4.Bunkers 
Following the decisions taken at INC-9, emissions from bunkers are not included in the 
total emissions in summary Table 3.1. Total C02 emissions from marine bunkers in the 
EC amounted to 113,600 Gg in 1990, while total C02 emissions from aviation bunkers 
amounted to 59 100 Gg. Since only a few Member States provided estimates of bunker 
emissions, emission estimates from maritime bunkers are based on Eurostat figures. 
Aviation bunker emissions have been estimated by reconciling non-road transport figures 
from Eurostat against estimates reported in CORINAIR and/or country reports. Annex 1 
provides the emission estimates for each of the Member States. 
17 
3.5. Uncertainties involved 
The uncertainty in the emission estimates has not been quantified, since quantitative 
estimates of the uncertainty would be highly unreliable. A statistical approach to quantify 
uncertainties in the emission estimates would not result in reliable figures at this stage 
for the reasons given below. 
Estimates for C02 emissions from fuel combustion activities (based on energy balance 
figures) are rather reliable and are likely to be least uncertain (within about +/- 3%). 
The uncertainty in estimates of non-C02 greenhouse gas emissions is considerably 
higher, due to the lack of knowledge or awareness of some of the sources and 
appropriate emission factors for these gases. As there may be some as yet unknown 
sources of these gases, estimates of these emissions are likely to be underestimated. The 
uncertainty in emission estimates is increasing in the following order: CO < NOx < CH4 
< NMVOC < N20, with uncertainties increasing to several orders of magnitude (several 
hundreds of percent). 
4. PROGRAMMES, POLICIES AND MEASURES 
4.1.Introduction 
This chapter surveys the policies and measures that have been adopted by the European 
Community with the objective of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. Policies that 
are explicitly and primarily directed towards a limitation of greenhouse gas emissions are 
described in sections 4.2 to 4.5. Sectoral policies that include specific environmental 
measures and/or have side-effects on greenhouse gas emissions are described in section 
4.6, nl. EC policies on agriculture, forestry, transport and waste. If available, assessments 
are presented of the impact of the policies on greenhouse gas emissions. Section 4.7 
summarizes the policies and measures described in this chapter, distinguishing policies 
and measures adopted by the Council, proposed by the Commission and in preparation 
by the Commission. 
4.2.The Community strategy to limit C02 emissions 
and improve energy efficiency 
In October 1991, the Commission presented an overall strategy to limit C02 emissions 
and improve energy efficiency, with the objective of stabilising C02 emissions in the 
Community in the year 2000 at the 1990 level (SEC(91)1744 final). This so-called "no-
regret" strategy consists in unlocking the zero- or low-cost potential for limiting C02 
emissions, which currently exists in all sectors of the economy and which also brings 
benefits in the field of air pollution and energy security as well as competitiveness and 
employment. 
In June 1992, a mutually reinforcing package of measures and programmes was proposed 
to the Council (COM(92)246 final). It rests on four pillars: 
The EC energy technology programmes and trans-European networks. 
The existing Community programmes, THERMIE and SAVE, have been 
reinforced. A new programme, ALTENER, and an action, which aims at the 
Rationalisation of Energy Use at Regional and Urban Level, have been adopted 
since 1990. The THERMIE programme is an energy technology dissemination 
programme. SAVE and ALTENER provide financial support for various actions 
in the field of energy efficiency and renewables, but also include the preparation 
of regulatory measures at EC level. Also "Energy Management at Regional and 
Urban level" and the development of trans-European networks contributes to the 
goal of C02 emission limitation (section 4.3). 
19 
Fiscal measure. 
In June 1992, the Commission issued a draft Council Directive proposing a 
harmonised tax on carbon dioxide emissions and energy use imposed at Member 
State level, which has not been adopted yet by the Council (section 4.4). 
Complementary national programmes. 
The Community strategy requires policy programmes which limit greenhouse 
gas emissions at Member State level, and which will be complementary to 
actions taken at the Community level. The national programmes of the Member 
States are described in chapter 5. 
EC Decision on a Monitoring Mechanism for C02 and other greenhouse gases. 
Part of the Community strategy is a monitoring mechanism to follow whether 
the C02 stabilisation target of the Community is attainable. In the framework of 
the Monitoring Mechanism Member States are required to submit their national 
programmes to the Commission for evaluation. In June 1993, a Decision 
establishing the monitoring mechanism was adopted (section 4.5) Member States 
.have submitted their national programmes and/or communications under the 
Convention. The first evaluation was carried out on the basis of national 
programmes received by the Commission in 1993. A second evaluation of the 
up dated national programmes/communications under the Convention is foreseen 
for the fall of 1995. 
The four pillars constitute the first step towards the goal of reducing emissions of carbon 
dioxide. With the formulation of the strategy a continuous process has begun of 
evaluating measures adopted, and formulating, new policies and measures to attain the 
carbon dioxide objectives the Community has committed itself to. 
4.3.Community programmes and initiatives 
This section describes the Community programmes for support of energy technology 
(THERMIE), energy efficiency (SAVE), the use of renewable energy sources 
(ALTENER) and the initiative "Energy Management at Regional and Urban level". 
Moreover, a brief description is included of the recent initiative on trans-European 
networks and of voluntary schemes. 
THERMIE (Energy Technology Support Programme) 
The abatement of environmental impacts through energy efficiency, as well as the 
introduction of renewables or cleaner ways of using fossil fuels ultimately depend on the 
implementation of better energy technologies. The THERMIE programme, Council 
Regulation (EEC) No. 2008/90, dealt with the demonstration and dissemination of 
cleaner and more efficient energy techniques in order to facilitate their widespread 
market penetration. THERMIE also focused on other Community objectives: security of 
energy supply, economic and social cohesion, improving competitiveness and 
20 
employment, the single market and cooperation with Central and Eastern Europe and the 
CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). 
The original THERMIE programme came to an end in 1994, although the projects 
supported from 1990 to 1994 are still being monitored and promoted. The overall budget 
amounted to 700 MECU12, or 140 MECU annually (0.2% of the EC budget). The main 
portion of the THERMIE budget (85%) was devoted to innovative technologies and 
projects, which have already passed through the R&D stage, but have not been 
implemented on a wider scale due to technical and economic risks. The remaining 
portion of the budget (ca. 15%) was spent on a wide range of promotional activities such 
as market assessments, monitoring, documentation, databases, workshops, conferences 
and training. To implement the wide range of measures, the Commission has set up a 
network of Organisations for the Promotion of Energy Technologies (OPET) in 1991, 
consisting of 49 organisations from EC Member States that are both from the public and 
the private sector. The organisations assist in the promotion and dissemination of 
innovative energy technologies. 
From 1990 to 1994, 726 THERMIE projects were supported. A cost-benefit analysis of 
the THERMIE projects supported in 1990-1993, predicted that they would lead to a 
reduction in C02 emissions of 42 million tonnes in the Community (rising to more than 
625 million tonnes with anticipated replication) as well as contributing to reductions in 
the emissions of other pollutants such as acid rain gases, volatile organic compounds and 
carbon monoxide. 
According to an assessment made by the Directorate-general for Energy of the 
Commission every ECU spent in the Programme will contribute, on average , to 1,617 kg 
of avoided cumulative C02 emissions compared to a "normal" energy technology using 
fossil fuels. This estimate is encumbered by the following uncertainties: 
the supported projects may not have been implemented as planned; 
included in the assessment is an estimate of the dissemination impact, i.e. the 
expected replication in other projects of the technologies applied in the projects 
supported by THERMIE.. 
The replication is estimated to be ca 15 times the direct effect of the supported projects. 
From 1 January 1995 the programme has continued as the new Non-Nuclear Energy 
Programme, better known as JOULE-THERMIE, within the European Community's 
Fourth Framework Programme for Research and technological development including 
demonstration. This new programme brings together for the first time the research and 
development aspects of the JOULE with the demonstration and promotion initiatives of 
THERMIE. 
The Programme is a vital part of the EC's strategy for meeting the energy challenges we 
face today. Building on past successes, the JOULE-THERMIE Programme will help to 
1 MECU = 1 million ECU. 
21 
reduce the negative environmental impacts associated with the production and use of 
energy, ensure lasting and reliable energy sources, at affordable costs and strengthen the 
technological basis of European industry. 
SAVE (Specific Actions for Vigorous Enei^gy Efficiency) 
The SAVE programme was adopted in October 1991 (Council Directive 91/565/EEC). It 
will terminate at the end of 1995 .The objective is to increase energy efficiency and 
thereby reduce C02 emissions through legislation on mandatory energy efficiency 
standards, quality labels, standardization, creation of infrastructures, pilot actions, training 
and dissemination of information. By creating a Community framework, SAVE enables 
the Member States to adopt energy efficiency measures at the national level. The budget 
of the programme is 35 MECU for the period 1.1.1991 - 31.12.1995. 
SAVE consists of three elements: 
1. A programme of energy efficiency legislation, aimed at removing institutional 
and administrative barriers to investment in energy efficiency and creating 
standards for energy equipment. 
The following directives have been adopted: 
- Efficiency of new hot water boilers (Council Directive 92/42/EEC); 
- Energy labelling of major household appliances, (Council Directive 
92/75/EEC). In the framework of this labelling directive, an implementation 
directive on energy labelling of household refrigerators and freezers 
(94/2/EEC) has been adopted. 
•• Building certification, billing according to actual consumption, third party 
finance, insulation of new buildings, boiler inspection and energy 
management (Council Directive 93/76/EEC). 
2. Financial Support for the creation of energy efficiency infrastructures in 
Member States. 
The programme includes projects in areas such as: education and training, 
integrated resource planning, third-party financing, cogeneration, monitoring and 
targeting, energy efficiency in the transport and building sectors, and 
introduction of Community legislation in Member States. The budget of the 
financial support programme is 35 MECU for the years 1991 to 1995. The level 
of support can amount to 50% of total project costs. 204 projects have received 
support at a total budgetary cost of 21 MECU. 
3. Information Exchange Network. 
The network involves a database on energy efficiency measures and specific 
promotional activities, such as conferences, symposia and workshops. 
In the framework of the programme of energy efficiency legislation a number of 
Directives are in preparation: 
Directives on appliance standards for energy efficiency. 
22 
The Council adopted a Decision (OJ No L 157) establishing PACE, a 
Community action programme for improving the efficiency of electricity use. In 
the framework of PACE, directives are being prepared on appliance efficiency 
standards for refrigerators, electric motors, office equipment and commercial 
lighting. 
A Directive on Integrated Resource Planning. 
Integrated resource planning for electricity and gas is actively promoted in the 
framework of the completion of the internal market for energy. Utilities should 
therefore investigate supply side and demand side management options (energy 
efficiency and renewables at consumer level) on an equal footing. This requires 
that utilities be able to obtain profits, not only from selling gas or electricity, but 
also from energy services they provide in the form i.a. of energy efficiency 
• investments in end-use sectors. 
Labelling directives for washing machines and dish washers, and light bulbs. 
For the SAVE programme no assessment is available on the impacts in terms of avoided 
emissions of C02 or other greenhouse gases. 
The first SAVE programme terminates at the end of 1995, but energy efficiency remains 
a key political area: for environmental reasons, for security of supply, and because its 
promotion is linked to important Single Market/competitiveness and coherent objectives. 
In its proposal for a new SAVE programme, SAVE-II, (COM (95) 225), the 
Commission proposed to incorporate both the Electricity End Use Programme (PACE) 
and the Regional and Urban Energy management Initative. All these actions have 
complementary goals and the SAVE-II Programme provides a comprehensive framework 
for undertaking all these related activities. 
The following nine categories of actions on energy efficiency policy are proposed to be 
financed under the programme: 
studies and other actions leading to the implementation and completion of 
Community energy efficiency legislation and performance standards; 
sectoral pilot actions aimed at accelerating energy efficiency investments and/or 
improving consumer energy use patterns, to be carried out essentially by 
Community wide networks; 
targeted sectoral pilot actions aimed at accelerating energy efficiency investment 
and improving consumer energy use patterns, to be carried out essentially by 
public and private enterprises; 
measures proposed by the Commission or by third parties to foster the exchange 
of experience mainly through information networks aimed at promoting better 
coordination between Community, international , national, regional and local 
activities through the establishment of appropriate means for exchanging 
information; 
23 
an action relating to the detailed sectoral; monitoring of energy efficiency 
progress in the Community, in individual member states and including the 
SAVE programme itself; 
specific actions in favour of greater cohesion in member sates and regions in the 
field of energy efficiency through support for the creation of energy efficiency 
infrastructures in those member sates and regions where energy efficiency 
policies are not yet sufficiently developed; 
specific actions in favour of energy management at the regional and urban 
level; 
studies and other actions in support of energy efficiency initiatives, within other 
programmes or aimed at establishing energy efficiency as a criterion within EC 
strategic programmes; and 
evaluation and monitoring of the actions undertaken. 
SAVE-II is scheduled to begin on 1 January 1996 and will run until 31 December 2000. 
The proposed budget is 150 MECU. 
ALTENER (Programme for the Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources) 
The ALTENER programme was adopted by the Council in September 1993 (Council 
Decision 93/500/EEC). The overall purpose is to establish a framework for specific 
actions whose objective is a greater market penetration of renewable energy sources 
(small hydroelectric plants, wind power, solar energy, biomass, biofuels and biogas, 
geothermal energy). The programme runs from 1993 until 1997 and has a budget of 
MECU 40. So far 114 pilot projects have been supported at a cost of MECU 11. 
Specific objectives for the development of renewable energy sources in the Member 
States, as set out in ALTENER are: 
increasing the market share of renewable energy sources from 4% in 1991 to 
8% in 2005; 
tripling the production of electricity from renewable energies; 
securing a 5% market share of biofuels in motor vehicle consumption. 
Similar to SAVE, ALTENER has the following elements: 
In preparation: legislative and standardization measures. 
Standardization measures are geared at ensuring the free circulation of 
renewable energy equipment. Envisaged are a harmonization of safety standards 
for wind generators and specifications for biodiesel as motor fuel. 
Financial support programme for the development of technical standards and 
specifications, training and information activities, sectoral pilot projects, 
biofuels, integrated resource planning and demand-side management, third party 
finance, the guarantee of financial risks, local development plans and feasibility 
studies. In 1993 and 1994, a total of 114 projects have been supported. 
Information Exchange Network. 
24 
Information and promotional activities include: coordination of national, 
Community and international activities, symposia, conferences and workshops 
and databases. 
For the ALTENER programme no assessment is available on the impacts of the 
programme in terms of avoided emissions of C02 or other greenhouse gases. 
Energy management at regional and Urban level 
This initiative, initiated in 1990, promotes studies on the definition and implementation 
of energy plans. It further aims to disseminate and transfer the expertise in this field 
throughout the Union. A fundamental goal of local and regional projects undertaken in 
the context of the initiative is to protect the environment by developing energy 
management, improving energy efficiency, and by providing alternative energy 
production options. The initiative, with a total budget of 20 MECU will be incorporated 
in the SAVE-II programme. 
In preparation: Trans-European networks 
Switching to cleaner fuel with lower carbon content can produce energy and 
environmental benefits, especially in those regions where due to infrastructure limitations 
fuels such as natural gas had been unavailable in the past. Trans-European networks have 
a crucial role to play in bringing cleaner fuel to peripheral regions as well as in 
improving the flexibility of the European gas supply system. The more efficient and 
flexible these networks can be operated, the less reason exists for security of supply 
concerns in the case of a rapid switch to natural gas. The same applies for trans-
European electricity networks which support the use of electricity produced from 
low/zero carbon sources throughout the Community. 
Voluntary schemes 
Limitation of C02 and other greenhouse gases requires the active involvement and 
participation of all economic and social actors. Voluntary schemes and auto regulation 
will have to play an important role in the future. The Commission has recently given a 
mandate to CEN/CENELEC (an international body for standardization in the electricity 
field) to elaborate European Standards in the field of thermal solar systems and their 
components. Likewise, standards are being elaborated concerning photovoltaics and wind 
turbines. The dissemination of cost-effective minimum standards is beneficial in both 
energy and environmental terms. Commission services have also been collaborating with 
the European Electricity Supply Industry to find cost-effective ways to limit C02 
emissions through electricity related supply and demand side options. 
Moreover, negotiations are underway for a voluntary labelling programme concerning 
energy efficiency of computer and other office equipment. This voluntary scheme, which 
could include manufacturers from the USA and Japan, would provide for a quasi 
worldwide labelling scheme. 
25 
4.4. The proposal for an energy/carbon tax 
In June 1992, the European Commission proposed a draft Directive (COM(92)226 final) 
for the introduction of a tax on all energy products, excluding renewables, based 50% on 
energy content and 50% on carbon content of fuels. The objective was to improve energy 
efficiency and favour fuel substitution towards products emitting less or no C02. 
It was proposed to introduce the tax in steps, starting at a rate of 0.21 ECU/GJ and 2.81 
ECU/t C02 in the first year (equivalent to $3 per barrel of oil). In each of the following 
seven years these rates were to be increased by one third of the tax rates of the initial 
year. In the last year these rates would therefore have reached 0.7 ECU/GJ and 9.4 
ECU/t C02, equivalent to $10 per barrel. 
Concerning electricity, the inputs in power stations would be taxed according to the 
carbon content of the fuels used. As regards the energy part, the tax would be fixed in 
terms of ECU per MWh. Raw materials, i.e. energy sources used as feedstocks, would 
not be taxed. 
Graduated reductions and conditional exemptions of the tax were to be applied for 
energy intensive firms. The reductions would depend on the share of energy costs in total 
value added of the products obtained using the energy. Full exemption of the tax would 
be reserved for those firms which use energy-intensive production processes and are very 
dependent on external trade. 
The tax proposal has been estimated to lead to a reduction of 3.8% of 1990 C02 
emissions by the year 2000. 
Present status of the proposal 
Unanimous approval from the Council is required for adopting a fiscal measure. At its 
meeting at Essen on 9 December 1994, the Council has taken note of the Commission's 
intention to present guidelines on common parameters for those Member States willing to 
apply a C02/energy tax. As a follow-up of these Conclusions the Commission decided on 
10 May 1995 to amend its initial proposal, in order to overcome the obstacles raised 
during previous discussions in Council (COM (95) 172). 
The main change proposed is that the implementation of a harmonised tax will be 
preceded by a transitional period during which the Member Sates, while respecting a 
harmonise structure, are free to set the tax rates product by product, provided that the 
Community objectives of limiting C02 emissions through improvement of energy 
efficiency and fuel switching towards low- no carbon fuels is fully reflected in the 
structure of the rates applied. 
In addition, the minimum rates set out in the original proposal (3 US$/bbl) are revised 
(10US$/bbl) and become target rates towards which the Member states endeavour to 
make their domestic rates converge in the medium term. 
26 
The Commission also considers preferable to refer as much as possible to the existing 
provisions of the excise duties Directives for reasons of simplification and reducing 
administrative costs. Of course this approach does away with the need for certain 
safeguard clauses (conditionally and temporary suspension of the tax), which are deleted. 
Moreover, the wish to safeguard the competitiveness of Community firms should 
encourage Member states to use the revenues of the tax to reduce other discriminatory 
charges, particularly those on labour. 
4.5. The monitoring mechanism 
In the Council Decision of 24 June 1993 (93/389/EEC), a monitoring mechanism was 
established for Member States' anthropogenic emissions of C02 and other greenhouse 
gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. 
According to the Council Decision, Member States shall devise, publish and implement 
national programmes for limiting their anthropogenic emissions of C02. The programmes 
shall be periodically updated. The Commission annually evaluates the national 
programmes, in order to assess whether progress in the Community as a whole is 
sufficient to attain the stabilisation objective. The second evaluation report, which covers 
1994-1995, is currently under preparation. After its finalisation it will be send to the 
Council and the European Parliament. 
The Council Decision specifies the information the national programmes must include: 
emissions in the 1990 base year, inventories of emissions by sources and removal by 
sinks, details of national policies and measures contributing to limitation and 
sequestration of C02 emissions, trajectories of national emissions between 1994 and 
2000, measures taken or envisaged for the implementation of relevant Community 
legislation and policies, and an assessment of the economic impact of the above 
measures. The methodology for determining emissions and removals by sinks must be 
compatible with the methodology developed by the IPCC. It has to take account of 
developments decided within the framework of the UN FCCC. 
With respect to other greenhouse gases the Member States should send to the 
Commission data concerning emissions of these gases, as well as a description of the 
measures being taken or envisaged which will limit emissions. 
The Decision includes a Committee composed of the representatives of the Member 
States and chaired by the representative of the Commission. Until mid 1995 the 
monitoring committee has held five meetings. It has approved two documents ("Content 
and format of annual inventories" and "Methodology for the evaluation of progress and 
for the content of national programmes"). 
27 
4.6. Sectoral policies 
This section reviews those sectoral policies, which include specific environmental 
measures and/or contribute to the limitation of greenhouse gases. Except for transport 
policy, no assessments have been made with regard to the quantitative impacts of the 
policies on the emissions of greenhouse gases. 
Agricultural policy 
A milestone in EC agricultural policies in the 90's was the Common Agricultural Policy 
(CAP) Reform in 1992. Some measures of the CAP Reform itself, that was driven 
primarily by economic and social considerations, have an impact on greenhouse gas 
emissions. Next to the reform a number of agri-environmental measures were adopted, as 
a part of the. so-called "accompanying measures". 
Before the CAP Reform, the Directive concerning the protection of waters against 
pollution caused by nitrates from agricultural sources (EEC 676/91) and the Community 
Drinking Water Directive (EEC 778/80) were adopted, with the aim of reducing Nitrate 
concentrations in drinking water. Together, these two Directives have an impact on the 
use of Nitrate fertilisers and therefore may result in reductions of N20 emissions. 
However, the implementation of the Drinking Water Directive took place before 1990, so 
its impact has mostly already been felt. Also before the CAP Reform, the European 
Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF) was established (Council 
Regulation (EEC 2328/91), that provided funds for, inter alia, measures to protect the 
environment. 
As to the impacts of the CAP Reform itself, one of the effects of the reform is a 
reduction of agricultural prices. This reduction of prices makes the use of mineral 
fertilizers less profitable, leading to a reduction of consumption by about a third. This 
decreases the total amount of N20 emissions from nitrate and ammonium fertilizers. In 
addition, the compulsory set-aside scheme (EEC 1765/92) reduces the intensity of the 
entire rotation13. Moreover, the possibility of growing non-food products on set-aside 
land constitutes a positive link to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, helping to 
substitute fossil fuel by bio-fuel. 
Regulation EEC (2066/92) aims to extensify beef production by restricting premiums to 
maximum stocking rates. The maximum rate is currently 3 Livestock Units per hectare of 
forage area, to be reduced to 2 Livestock Units in 1996. This reduces emissions of CH4 
Intensification on remaining land will only result if there is an increase in market price due to 
reduced total production. This price effect is hardly to be expected since agricultural markets are 
still regulated and, therefore, continue to have limited responsiveness. 
28 
from ruminants per ha. The Member States are authorized to restrict provision of the beef 
premium to those farmers who comply with certain environmental rules (EEC 3611/93). 
As accompanying measures to the CAP Reform, the regulations concerning the European 
Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF) were changed, concerning agri-
environmental measures (EEC 2078/92) and the promotion of afforestation (EEC 
2080/92)! 
The agri-environmental measures are established by zonal programmes which are set up 
on the Member State level. The programmes comprise the promotion of: 
extensive and environmentally sound production methods; 
conversion of arable land into grassland; 
, reduction of livestock density; 
upkeep of abandoned farmland; 
20 years set-aside for ecological purposes; 
public access to farmland; 
protection of genetic variety; 
pilot-projects and training of farmers. 
The agri-environmental measures are cofinanced by the EAGGF at a rate of 75% in the 
less developed regions, and at 50% in the other regions. The available budget for the 
1993-1997 period is 3670 MECU. The assessment of altogether 214 zonal programmes 
by the Commission is still going on. Until now, 59 programmes have been approved. 
Forestry policy 
A number of EC regulations promote afforestation in Member States, and the 
contribution of forests to environmental improvement. EC Regulation 1610/89 on the 
development of forest in rural areas allows for Community co-financing of, inter alia, the 
following measures: 
afforestation and improvement of forests; 
the creation of nurseries; 
reconstitution of forests damaged by fire; 
forestry awareness campaigns. 
These measures are limited to less developed areas and have to be implemented in the 
framework of regional development programmes submitted by the Member States and 
approved by the Commission. A measure accompanying the reform of the CAP Reform 
is the promotion of afforestation (EEC 2080/92). This measure contributes to an 
improved environmental balance by establishing forests in agricultural areas and by 
enlargement of the C02 absorption capacity. 
Financial aid is given on a contractual basis to cover the costs for: 
afforestation on agricultural land; 
income losses from agricultural land (20 years); 
upkeep of afforestated land (5 years); 
29 
investments on the improvement of forests (fire protection). 
The measures are cofinanced by the EAGGF at a rate of 75% for the less developed 
regions, and at 50% in the other regions. The available budget for the 1993-1997 period 
is 1260 MECU. 
Indirectly, measures designed to protect forests from atmospheric pollution increase the 
net primary productivity of the trees and therefore increase potential C02 uptake (EEC 
3528/86 and 2157/92). Measures include regular surveys of forest conditions and pilot 
projects for the improvement of knowledge on air pollution impacts on forests. In 
addition, Regulation EEC 2158/92 aims to protect forests from fires. The measure 
includes: 
the elaboration by Member States of plans to protect forests against fire; 
a Community information system on forest fire; 
a Community support for projects with the aim of fire prevention. 
Transport policy 
Transport is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in the Community. Behind 
power generation, it is the second most important C02 emitting sector, before the 
domestic and tertiary sector and industry. Presently, transport accounts for about one-
quarter of total Community C02 emissions. Under a business as usual scenario, C02 
emissions from transport are forecasted to grow significantly between 1990 and 2000. 
This makes it a key concern in any strategy to combat climate change. 
The transport sector in the EC is characterized by strong growth: 
expected growth from 1990 to 2000 of vehicle kilometres is 17% for passenger 
cars, 26% for light-duty vehicles and 13% for two-wheelers; 
air traffic in Europe (excluding the newly independent states) is expected to 
grow by 5.2% per year until 2003, according to the International Civil Aviation 
Organisation. 
In relation to greenhouse gas emissions from transport, the Community essentially has 
two types of instruments at its disposal: 
Regulatory instruments, i.e. the setting of emission or other technical standards 
for vehicles, aircraft, etc. 
Commission Directive 93/226/EC defines a measurement method for C02 
emissions from passenger cars, but no standards have been set in this respect. 
The Commission intends to present a Communication on this matter in the fall 
of 1995. The Community has made substantial progress in reducing other 
transport related greenhouse gases. Building on earlier legislation, between 1990 
and 1994 Community standards have been strengthened for NOx, CO and VOC's 
from road vehicles. The standards are legally binding for Member States. The 
dates below refer to the mandatory application of the standards to all new 
vehicles in the Community: 
30 
* For heavy-duty vehicles, Council Directive 91/542 EEC of 1.10.1991 reduces 
CO, hydrocarbons and NOx emission limits in two steps, from 1.10.1993 and 
1.10.1996 on. 
* For light-duty vehicles Council Directive 93/59 EEC of 28.6.1993 reduces 
CO, hydrocarbons and NOx emission values from 1994 on. 
* For passenger cars, European Parliament and Council Directive 94/12 EC of 
23.3.1994 reduces CO, hydrocarbons and NOx emission values from 1997 on. 
* Directive 92/6 EEC requires lorries (85 km/h), buses and coaches (100 km/h) 
to be fitted with speed limiters, in part retroactively. It is estimated that this 
Directive reduces energy consumption, and thus C02 emissions, by these 
vehicles by at least 5%. 
* In the framework of Community legislation on roadworthiness tests, 
Directive 92/55/EEC sets minimum standards and criteria for emission tests 
on all vehicles. Given that a large share of emissions is caused by badly 
maintained vehicles, this Directive is likely to have a significant impact. 
Fiscal measures, to influence transport demand, modal choice and environmental 
characteristics of fuels. 
The potential of fiscal incentives to promote environmental objectives has been 
demonstrated by the experience on car emissions. Various Member States have 
used fiscal incentives to promote the introduction of cars that meet new 
Community standards before their mandatory application, and Council Directive 
92/458/EEC on emissions from small cars set a framework for such fiscal 
incentives. The levying of excise duties on transport fuels raises transport prices 
and can hence be used to reduce the consumption of these products and thereby 
contribute to a limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. Council Directive 92/82 
EEC sets minimum rates for excise duties on petrol and diesel fuels as 
follows14: 
- ECU 337 per 1000 litres for leaded petrol; 
- ECU 287 per 1000 litres for unleaded petrol; 
- ECU 245 per 1000 litres of gas oil used as propellant; 
- ECU 100 per 1000 kg for liquid petroleum gas and methane used as 
propellant; 
- ECU 245 per 1000 litres of kerosene used as propellant. 
So far, this instrument has not been used with the explicit view of reducing C02 
emissions and other noxious emissions as the minimum excise duties at Community level 
exist mainly with concern to national fiscal policies of the Member states and Internal 
Market requirements. However, in its report on the bi-annual review of minimum excise 
duties on mineral oils for 1993 and 1994, the Commission identified environmental 
14 Specific (lower) rates are valid for Luxemburg. 
31 
policy and C02 emissions as topics that should be considered in the development of 
fiscal policy. 
The Commission is currently looking into the problem of the external costs of transport 
and how to internalise them. It is the intention of the Commission to present a Green 
paper on this subject in the near future. 
With a view to promoting the use of renewable energy in the transport sector, the 
Commission has made a proposal for a Directive on excise duties on motor fuels from 
agricultural sources ("biofuels"). This proposal provides for a détaxation of biofuels in 
relation to conventional (petrol and diesel) fuels. 
The proposal for a carbon/energy tax (see section 4.4), if adopted, will have an impact on 
greenhouse gas emissions from transport. 
Under "business-as-usual" total C02 emissions from road transport are expected to 
increase by 24.5 % between 1990 and 2000 (DGXVII, (Energy): "Consequences of the 
proposed carbon/energy tax", 23.10.1992). 
With regard to other greenhouse gases the projections are as follows: 
emissions in 2000 compared to 1990 
CH4 - 41.3% 
N20 + 237.6% 
CO - 53.3% 
NOx - 37.1% 
NM VOC - 52.9% 
Waste policy 
Concerning packaging and packaging waste, the Council and the European Parliament 
adopted on 20 December 1994 a Directive (94/62/EEC) with the aims of harmonizing 
national measures concerning the management of packaging and packaging waste, and of 
providing a high level of environmental protection. The measures aim, as a first priority, 
at preventing the production of packaging waste and, as additional fundamental 
principles, at reusing packaging, at recycling and other forms of recovering packaging 
waste and hence, at reducing the final disposal of such waste. Thus it will result in a 
reduction of C02 and CH4 emissions. The measures include, inter alia, an obligation for 
Member States to attain, within five years after implementation of the Directive, a 50% 
to recoverage rate of packaging waste15. The recycling percentage must be between 25 
and 45%. For a second five year period new targets will be established by the Council. 
In addition, the Directive provides for marking and identification systems, 
standardization, maximum allowable concentrations of heavy metals, information systems 
15 Exceptions are made for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. 
32 
to harmonize data on packaging waste management between Member States, information 
for users of packaging and reporting requirements for Member States. 
The Council of 8 and 9 June 1994 agreed on a common position on a Council Directive 
on the landfill of waste. The amended Directive contains an obligation for permitting, 
including requirements for monitoring and control procedures. The contents of the permit 
will have to satisfy "general requirements for all classes of landfills", among which are 
the taking of appropriate measures in order to control the accumulation and migration of 
landfill gas. Landfill gas has to be collected, treated and used, unless the competent 
authority determines otherwise after environmental evaluation. This will result in more 
efficient management of landfills and thus in a reduction in methane emissions. 
4.7. Commission Working Paper on the EU Climate Change Strategy : 
a set of options 
Analyses indicated that with prevailing expectations concerning energy prices and 
economic growth the Community could fall short of its C02 stabilisation commitment by 
5% to 8%. It was felt that a more vigorous implementation of existing Community and 
Member State was required. On the request of the Council the Commission prepared on 
1 March 1995 a preliminary analysis of the policy options which the Council should 
consider for C02 limitation in the perspective of 2005-2010 (SEC 95/288/final). 
From the preliminary analysis it is already clear that a significant technical potential 
exists to limit and reduce C02 emissions beyond the year 2000. If this potential is to be 
exploited, substantive measures will have to be taken: the improvement of energy 
efficiency and the penetration of renewable energy sources, completion of the internal 
energy market, a change of transport modes, an upward review of energy taxes, a better 
focus of its R&D policies, and an intensified cooperation with third countries. In 
addition, the Commission underlined that many of those measures can be introduced 
with a view to achieve substantial benefits in other policy areas, like energy, R&D and 
transport as well as growth, competitiveness and employment, as already indicated in the 
Commission White Paper of December 1993. 
In the light of the deliberations on the Working Paper in Council and the Decision of the 
first Conference of the Parties to the UN FCCC the Commission is currently elaborating 
on a more detailed analysis. 
4.8. Summary 
The following tables summarize the programmes, policies and measures described in this 
chapter. A clear distinction is made between programmes, policies and measures adopted 
by the Council (listed in Table 4.1), proposed by the Commission (listed in Table 4.2) 
and in preparation by the Commission (listed in Table 4.3). 
33 
Table 4.1. Programmes, policies and measures adopted by the Council. 
NamePeriodBudgetDescription 
THERMIE 11990 - 1994 700 MECUFinancial support for clean energy technologies 
SAVE-programmel991 - 1995 35 MECUFinancial support for energy efficiency projects • 
SAVE-legislationl992 - ....Energy efficiency standards for new hot water boilers 
1992 - ....Energy labelling of major household appliances, Framework Directive 
1994 - ....Energy labelling of refrigerators and freezers 
Energy Management at 
Regional and Urban level 1990-1995 20 MECUSupport for energy plans at regional and urban level 
ALTENER-programmel993 - 1997 40 MECUFinancial support for renewables 
Voluntary agreementCEN/CENELEC will elaborate standards for thermal solar with CEN/ CENELEC systems, photovoltaics and wind turbines 
Monitoring 1993 - 2000Procedures to monitor progress towards C02 stabilisation target 
mechanism 
CAP Reform,1992 - ...Lowering of agricultural prices reduces fertilizer use and 
price loweringthereby N20 emissions 
CAP Reform,1992 - ...Compulsory set-aside scheme promotes growing of biofuels 
set-aside scheme 
CAP Reform, 1992 - ....Premiums are related to maximum stocking rates, reducing 
extensification ofCH4 emissions from ruminants 
beef production 
34 
Table 4.1. Programmes, policies and measures adopted by the Council (continued). 
Name Period Budget Description 
Agri-environmental 1993 - 1997 3670 MECU 
measures Financial support for zonal programmes, incl. environmental 
measures 
Afforestation 
Protection of 
forests from 
pollution 1993 - 1997 
1992 -1996 
Protection of 1992 - 1996 
forests from fires 1260 MECU Financial support for afforestation 
29.4 MECU Measures increase net primary productivity of trees and 
thereby potential C02 uptake. 
70 MECU Measures contribute to C02 uptake 
Emission standards 1993 -
for heavy duty 
vehicles Emission standards for CO, hydrocarbons and NO„ 
Emission standards 1993 
for light duty 
vehicles Emission standards for CO, hydrocarbons and NOx 
Emission standards 1997 
for passenger cars 
Fiscal measures for 1992 
for transport fuels 
Landfill directive 1994 Emission standards for CO, hydrocarbons and NOx 
Minimum excise duties on petrol and diesel fuels 
Environmental standards for landfilling of waste contributes to limitation of CH4 emissions 
35 
Table 4.2. Programmes, policies and measures proposed by the Commission. 
Name Period Description 
THERMIE II 
Energy /carbon tax 
Packaging waste Directive 1994 - 1998 Financial support for clean energy technologies 
Tax on fossil fuels based 50/50 on energy and carbon content 
Harmonization of national measures concerning packaging waste, prescription of 50% 
recoverage rate and 25 - 45% recycling rate 
Table 4.3. Programmes, policies and measures in preparation by the Commission 
Name Description 
SAVE-legislation 
ALTENER-legislation 
Trans European networks 
Voluntary agreement 
C02 emission standards for 
passenger cars 
Fiscal measures for transport Appliance energy efficiency standards for refrigerators, electric motors, office equipment and commercial lighting 
Directive on Integrated Resource Planning 
Labelling directives for washing machines and dishwashers, and light bulbs 
Harmonization of safety standards for wind generators and specifications for biodiesel 
Creation of infrastructures for transport of gas and electricity 
Voluntary energy efficiency labelling of computer and other office equipment 
New emission standards for passenger cars will include standards for C02 emissions 
Rise in minimum rates of fuel excise duties, equalization of minimum rates of excise duties for petrol and diesel fuels, 
target rates for gradual increase in excise duties on mineral oils 
36 
5. NATIONAL REPORTS OF THE MEMBER STATES 
5.1. Introduction 
The national programmes adopted by the Member States are one of the pillars of the strategy of the 
European Community to limit greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter briefly summarizes the 
national reports of the Member States to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. All Member States, 
except Belgium have submitted their communication to the UN FCCC. Information included in their 
national communications has been summarized in this chapter. Since Belgium did not yet ratify the 
UN FCCC, a short description is provided of its national programme under the EC Monitoring 
Mechanism for C02 and other greenhouse gas emissions. 
In each of the summaries of the national reports of the Member States, an overview is given of 
greenhouse gas emission estimates as provided in the national reports. The C02 emission estimates 
correspond with total C02 emissions. C02 removals by sequestering of carbon in sinks have not been 
subtracted from these total emissions. The estimates of greenhouse gas emissions provided in this 
chapter do not necessarily correspond with the figures included in the Annex to Chapter 3 "The EC 
emission inventory". The figures of the latter have been adjusted according to the draft IPCC 
guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories for reasons of comparison. Besides estimates of 
greenhouse gas emissions in 1990, projections are provided of emissions in 2000. 
Further, for each of the Member States a short description is provided of the policies and measures 
included in its national report. 
5.2. The Member States' national reports to limit greenhouse gas emissions 
Austria 
Austria submitted its national communication to the secretariat of the UN FCCC at 21 September 
199416. Austria adopted as its national target a 20% reduction of C02 emissions by the year 2005 
compared to 1988 levels. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.1 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Austria in 1990 and 2000. 
According to a projection from as early as 1991 ("reference scenario"), C02 emissions are expected 
National Climate Report of the Austrian Federal Government, in compliance with the 
obligations under Art.4.2. and Art. 12 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change 
(Federal Law Gazette No. 414/1994). Federal Ministry of Environment, Youth and Family 
Affairs, August 1994. 
37 
to increase by 10% in the year 2000 compared with 1990. However, this scenario does not represent 
all policies and measures implemented or committed to; these are not fully quantified and may 
permit Austria to stabilize its C02 emissions by the time period around 2000 to 2005. CH4 and N20 
emissions are expected to be at roughly the same level as 1990 emissions. 
Table 5.1.Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Austria in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 59,200' 63,7002 
CH4 602.8 600 
N2Q 4T 42 
1 Including process related emissions (2,100 Gg) 
2 Not including process related emissions 
Policies and measures 
Austria established two committees to develop an effective climate protection strategy: the Austrian 
C02 commission and the Interministrial Committee to Coordinate Measures to Protect Global Climate 
(IMC Climate). With the last interim report of the IMC Climate, Austria adopted a comprehensive 
catalogue of measures. This strategy includes the following points of main emphasis: 
C02 
Power production/electricity supply industry: 
Fuel switching at thermal powerplants (e.g. fuel switch to gas); 
Room heating and water heaters: 
Mix of measures for a tightening of building regulations and norms, introduction of an energy 
coefficient, tightening of residential building subsidies, co-ordination of the extension of 
conducted energy, priority for the utilization of district heating; 
Renewable energies: 
Full utilization of the potentials of energy use through renewable fuels (wind, biogas, sewage 
gas, landfill gas, biomass, sun); 
Combined heat and power plants: 
Large-scale replacement of thermal power plants without heat utilization by those by CHP; 
Traffic: 
Comprehensive catalogue of measures (extension of infrastructure for combined carriage, traffic 
organization, R&D, fleet fuel consumption, regulations); 
Economie instruments: 
Introduction of a comprehensive energy and C02 levy with due consideration for international 
competitiveness. 
CH4 
A draft ordinance on landfills has been drawn up to promote the energy utilization of landfill gas. 
Research and development is being carried out on the economically feasible use of biogas. 
N20 
Biological farming is being promoted. Requirements promote the targeted use of fertilizers, leading 
to a further reduction in N20 emissions. 
Belgium 
Belgium did not yet ratify the UN FCCC. At its Council of Ministers (6 June 1991), Belgium 
committed itself to achieve a C02 emission reduction of 5% by 2000 compared to 1990. In June 
1994, it submitted its national programme under the EC Monitoring Mechanism17. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
C02 emissions in Belgium amounted to 114 410 Gg in 1990. The inventory was carried out using the 
CORINAIR methodology which was adjusted according to the draft IPCC guidelines for national 
greenhouse gas inventories. If the total package of (proposed) policies and measures is implemented, 
Belgium expects to be able to reduce C02 emissions by 8-9% by the year 2000 compared to 1990. 
This estimate assumes the application of a European carbon/energy tax and is based on a 
standardization of temperature in 2000 compared to 1990. 
Policies and measures 
The Belgium national programme includes various measures and policies to address climate change. 
It includes measures already adopted by Government as well as proposed measures. Regarding 
energy, these measures include the establishment of cooperation between the authorities, the business 
community and the energy distributors, a more efficient electricity production, promotion of the use 
of renewable energy, the increased use of natural gas and investments to reduce energy electricity 
demand. Structural modifications are taken in the iron and steel sector to reduce energy consumption. 
Initiatives are taken in the tax system to promote an energy friendly behaviour. The Belgium 
Government established at 1 August 1993, an energy tax based on the European proposals for an 
energy/C02 tax. Other measures are speed limits on roads and motorways, transport plans for 
personnel in companies, promotion of the public transport, information and awareness-raising 
activities and promotion of research. Belgium also participates in THERMIE, SAVE, PACE and 
ALTENER. 
17 Belgian National Reduction Programme C02 emissions. Under the "Council Decision 
concerning a mechanism of monitoring of C02 emissions and other greenhouse gases in the 
Community". June 1994. 
39 
Denmark 
Denmark's national communication18 was submitted to the secretariat of the UN FCCC in August 
1994. The national C02 target of Denmark is to achieve an emission reduction of 20% of emissions 
from energy-use by the year 2005 compared to 1988. Sectoral C02 targets have been set for the 
energy sector and the transport sector. Apart from the national targets, Denmark has committed itself 
to stabilize emissions at the 1990 level in 2000 within the framework of the Climate Convention, as 
well as to achieve a 5% reduction of C02 emissions, as a contribution to the objective of stabilising 
C02 emissions in the Community as a whole by the year 2000. 
Emissions in 1990, 2000 and 2005 
Table 5.2 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Denmark in 1990, 2000 and 2005. 
According to Denmark's projections, the national C02 target for the year 2000 is most likely to be 
achieved. A C02 emission reduction of approximately 8% is expected by the year 2000 compared to 
1990 levels. This estimate is based on a situation with net zero electricity import, in both the target 
year and the base year. The projected C02 emission reduction is thus based on corrected 1990 figures 
for fluctuating imports of electricity. If imports become zero, or change to exports (as happens in dry 
years in Scandinavia), emissions may surpass the 1990 level by 3% or more. CH4 emissions are 
expected to decrease by about 13% by the year 2000. N20 emissions are expected to increase by 
10% by 2000. 
Table 5.2. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Denmark in 1990, 2000 and 2005 (Gg). 
\mn 2nûû 2QH5 
C02 58,353* 53,753 52,051 
CH4 406.32 354.2 353.5 
N20 10.53 11.5 12.1 
1 C02 emissions are corrected for electricity import. Actual emissions amount to 52.053 Gg. 
2 CH4 emissions are corrected for electricity import. Actual emissions amount to 406.2 Gg. 
3 N20 emissions are corrected for electricity import. Actual emission amount to 10.3 Gg. 
Policies and measures 
Limitations of greenhouse gas emissions, notably C02, were introduced as explicit targets in the 
Energy Action Plan and the Transport Action plan, which were adopted in 1990. A package of 
measures to further decrease greenhouse gas emissions was launched in the action plan "Follow up 
on Energy 2000", published in November 1993. The objectives of the Danish waste policy were 
described in the Danish Government's Action Plan for Waste and Recycling 1993-1997 (1992). 
Climate Protection in Denmark. Ministry of the Environment. Danish Environmental Protection 
Agency. Denmark, 1994. 
40 
Energy 
The Energy Action Plan ("Energy 2000") emphasized efficiency improvements in both end use 
(especially electricity) and energy supply (notably increased use of combined heat and power), 
changing to cleaner fuels (a.o. biomass and wind) and increasing energy R&D. Major initiatives 
taken include inter alia; 
securing continued growth in the market shares of district heating and natural gas; 
conversion of local district heating plants to combined heat and power production based on 
natural gas or biomass; 
increased use of rënewables; 
changing the taxation of electricity and fuels to a consistent system of energy and C02 
taxes; 
implementation of efficiency standards; 
subsidy schemes for energy saving by industry and for installation of individual metering; 
Transport 
The transport action plan- promotes an efficient transport system. Experiments are supported with 
alternative public transport services. 
Waste 
The Danish waste policy aims to recycle about 50% of the total amount of waste generated in the 
year 2000. The remainder should primarily be incinerated and landfilling should be minimized. The 
energy content of the incinerated waste will be used to replace fossil fuels. The waste objectives will 
be achieved using a series of instruments, such as agreements with industry and local authorities, 
increase and differentiation of waste charges, and legislation. 
Forestry 
Regarding the forestry sector, the Danish Parliament decided that during a period of rotation, e.g. 80-
100 years, the forest area should be doubled, leading to a C02 fixation rate of approximately 5% of 
the yearly C02 emission at its highest level. 
Finland 
Finland submitted its National Communication19 to the secretariat of the UN FCCC in January 1995. 
In its energy report to Parliament, the Finnish Government adopted the national goal of halting 
growth in C02 emissions form energy production and use at the end of the '90s. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.3. provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Finland in 1990 and 2000. C02 
emissions are expected to increase by 30% in the year 2000 compared with 1990. This estimate is 
based on the assumption that all electricity consumed in 2000 is produced in Finland. However, in 
19 Finland's National Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Ministry of Environment, January 1995. 
41 
1990 Finland imported 17% of its electricity which is equivalent to 11,000 Gg of C02 emissions. A 
reduction of about 10% in CH4 emissions is expected in 2000 compared to 1990 levels, while N20 
emissions are expected to increase by about 20%. 
Table 5.3. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Finland in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
CO,1 54,200 70,2002 
CH4 252 204 
N20 23 28 
1 C02 emissions from fossil fuels and peat, and from industrial processes. 
2 In the projections of C02 emissions in 2000 it is assumed that all electricity consumed in 
Finland is also produced in Finland. To compare these figures with 1990 emissions, it should 
be noted that in 1990 Finland imported 17% of its electricity, equivalent to 11,000 Gg of C02 
emissions. 
Policies and measures 
The main focus in Finland's climate strategy is to intensify already existing programmes to reduce 
greenhouse gas emissions, such as improvements in the efficiency of the energy production and 
utilization system, and the use of energy and carbon taxes. The Finnish action programme also 
includes measures to enhance carbon reservoirs and sinks. 
Energy 
Finland introduced a C02 tax in 1990. This tax favours low-emission energy sources, promotes 
energy conservation and encourages the use of renewable fuels such as biomass to replace fossil 
fuels. In 1992, the Finnish Government approved an energy conservation programme aimed at 
rationalizing end uses of energy in individual sectors. The following targets of reducing specific 
energy conservation have been adopted (compared to 1990 levels): space heating 10%, household use 
15%, services 15% and industry 10%. 
Measures are being undertaken to promote the use of biofuels. The objective is to increase the use of 
biofuels by 25% by the year 2005. Research on energy conservation is being continued and new 
energy technology development programmes have been launched. 
Transport 
A tax relief has been granted on cars with catalytic converters. A relatively high tax on car purchases 
curbed the growth in the car stock. Other measures include subsidies for public transport, investments 
in the rail network, a cut in the right to tax-deduct business travel costs, and a reduction in the 
transport subsidies to industry in developing areas. 
Forestry 
The forest and timber resources in Finland are still growing substantially. According to the forestry' 
environmental programme, an annual increment of 5-10 million cubic metres is estimated to be 
untouched by commercial exploitation, as a result of environmental protection goals, such as the 
conservation of biodiversity. The forest C02 sink in 1990 is put at around 31000 Gg of C02. 
Other sectors 
The Rural Environment Programme approved in 1992 and the agri-environmental support programme 
both include action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farming and greenhouse cultivation. 
The waste management development programme calls for a substantial decrease in the number of 
42 
landfills, which will result in more efficient management and thus in a reduction in methane 
emissions. 
France 
France published its national communication in February 199520. In parallel to the commitments of 
the UN FCCC for developed countnes and the European strategy to stabilize C02 emissions at their 
1990 levels by 2000, France has announced its commitment to maintain annual per capita C02 
emissions below 2 tonnes of carbon (7.33 tonne C02). 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.4. provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in France in 1990 and 2000. Energy 
related C02 emissions are expected to increase by 9% in 2000 compared to 1990. Total annual per 
capita C02 emissions are expected not to exceed 2 tonnes of carbon. A relative increase is expected 
of 7.5% for net C02 emissions in 2000 compared to 1990. This relative increase amounts to 4.4% if 
these estimates are corrected for climate variations. CH4 emissions in 2000 are expected to be at 
roughly the same level as 1990 emissions. A reduction of 47% in N20 emissions is expected in 2000 
compared to 1990 levels. 
Table 5.4. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in France in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 367,000 382,000' 
CH4 2,900 2,900 
N20 177 93 
1 Energy related C02 emissions. 1990 energy related C02 emissions amounted to 350,000 Gg. 
Policies and measures 
The French national programme emphasises the transport sector, since a strong rise in emissions is 
expected in this sector. Besides, possibilities of reducing C02 emissions in other sectors are limited, 
as a substantial emission reduction, amounting to 26.5%, has already been realized in the eighties. To 
a large extent, the reduction was achieved by the nuclear programme in the electricity sector. 
Presently, the electricity sector accounts for only about 10% of total emissions, much less than in 
other EC Member States. 
C02 - Energy 
Tariff policies changing the demand pattern for electricity will enable a larger utilization of nuclear 
energy. As a general policy, the use of (nuclear produced) electricity instead of fossil fuels is 
stimulated. For isolated locations, the attention is increasing for stand-alone applications of renewable 
energies, as an alternative to expensive connections to the net. In the housing and construction sector, 
energy end-use efficiency is stimulated by a programme of standards, labelling and information 
Programme National de Prevention du changement de climat. Republique Française, Février 
1995. 
43 
dissemination. Biofuels are exempted from taxes, and the development of technology in this field is 
stimulated by credits. 
C02 - Transport 
Transport policies are directed towards an increase of energy efficiency, stimulation of transport 
modes with favourable environmental characteristics (public transport, combined transport in road 
haulage, electric cars), an improvement of the efficiency of transport infrastructure (new technologies 
for reducing congestion, better coordination of transport by road, railway and water), policies for 
road haulage (speed limiter, increased enforcement of maximum driving time regulations) and 
technical measures affecting the efficiency of vehicles. 
CO2 - Industry 
Voluntary agreements ("contrats de branch") are being discussed with companies in the most energy 
intensive branches of industry. A range of support measures are already in place: mandatory energy 
audits for industrial facilities, financial assistance including R&D support and fiscal incentives. 
Forestry 
The objective of forestry policies is an afforestation of 30.000 ha per year. 
CH4 
The French waste policy is promoting incineration, composting and recycling of waste to limit CH4 
emissions. A tax on household wastes will be increased. Technical measures are undertaken against 
gas leakages from networks. 
N20 
Regulatory action and industrial standardisation using the best available technologies will decrease 
N20 emissions from adipic, nitric and glyoxylic acid production. A strategy for limiting agricultural 
N20 emissions is under study. 
Germany 
Germany submitted its national communication to the UN FCCC in September 199421. The Federal 
Cabinet of Germany resolved to strive for a 25-30% reduction of C02 emissions in Germany by the 
year 2005, in relation to 1987 levels. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.5. provides details of C02, CH4 and N20 emissions in Germany in 1990 and 2005. 
Germany's national communication did not provide projections for the year 2000. CH4 emissions arc 
expected to decrease by 48% in 2005 compared to the 1990 emission level, N20 emissions are 
Environmental policy. Climate protection in Germany. First report of the Government of the 
Federal Republic of Germany Pursuant to the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change. An information paper from the Federal Environment Ministry. September 
1994. 
44 
expected to decrease by 25%. C02 emissions are expected to decrease by 3% in 2005 compared to 
1990. However, Germany's national communication does not specify which measures are included in 
this projection. 
Policies and measures 
Germany's national communication provides an extensive list of measures. A distinction is made 
between measures that have been approved and are being/have been implemented and measures still 
in the approval phase. Below a summary is given of some of the most important measures already 
approved. 
Table 5.5. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Germany in 1990 and 20051 (Gg). 
1990 2005 
C02 1,012,000 — 2 
CH4 6,218 3,233 3 
N,0 223 167 4 
1 Germany's national communication does not include projections of greenhouse gas emissions 
for the year 2000. 
2 Germany's national communication provides an estimate of 980 000 Gg C02 emissions in 2005 
(table 6.15, page 144) but does not specify which measures are included in this projection. 
3 Germany's national communication does not provide this figure, but states that CH4 emissions 
are expected to decrease by 48% in 2005 compared to 1990. 
4 Germany's national communication does not provide this figure, but states that N20 emissions 
are expected to decrease by 25% in 2005 compared to 1990. 
Energy supply 
energy saving programmes and incentives for saving electricity; 
incentives to increase the use of renewable energy sources; 
a support programme to increase heat/power cogeneration (including tax breaks) and to 
modernise the district heating network in former GDR; 
Traffic and transport 
increase of the mineral-oil tax; 
investments in the national transport infrastructure, including long-distance motorways, the 
railway network and the national waterways; 
information on energy-saving and environmentally oriented driving habits; 
Buildings and structures 
amendment of the Thermal Insulation Ordinance and of the Heating-systems Ordinance; 
tax breaks for the use of renewable energies; 
subsidies for modernisation of heating-systems and thermal insulation in the former GDR; 
45 
New technologies 
various research programmes on environmentally sound technologies, especially in the field 
of energy; 
Agriculture and forestry 
improving animal digestive efficiency; 
conservation of existing forests and support for afforestation; 
Waste management 
Acts and Ordinances to reduce the total amount of waste, to increase recycling of material 
and for better waste management. 
Greece 
Greece published its national communication in February 199522. The Council of Ministers of Greece 
accepted the stabilization objective of the European Community based on a fair distnbution of 
responsibilities and burdens. The Greek Government considers that a realistic objective for its 
national programme is to restrict the total increase in C02 emissions to 15% (or 12,400 Gg) in 2000 
compared to 1990 levels. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.6 provides emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 Greece in 1990 and projected emissions in 2000. 
Greek expects that a successful implementation of its action programme could reduce the increase in 
C02 emissions in 2000 to 9,800 Gg or 12%, compared to 1990 levels. Total methane emissions in 
2000 are expected to be lower than 1990 emissions, while N20 emissions are expected to increase. 
The Greek national communication does not quantify future CH4 and N20 emissions. 
Table 5.6. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N:0 in Greece in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 82,000 91,800 
CH4 343 NE 
N20 13.7 NE 
Policies and measures 
The main elements of Greece's national programme are the transformation of the energy sector and 
policies in the transport, waste and forestry sector. 
C02 
Measures being taken in the energy sector are aiming at energy conservation and the substitution of 
fossil fuels. Measures in the energy supply sector include: increased use of natural gas, increased use 
Climate Change. The Greek Action Plan for the abatement of C02 and other greenhouse gas 
emissions. February 1995. 
46 
of renewable sources of energy (such as wind, solar, biomass, hydro and geothermal energy), 
improving existing power station's efficiency, promotion of combined heat and power, and the use of 
cleaner technologies for lignite combustion. Measures taken at the demand side include an evaluation 
of building standards in force, the promotion of natural gas, renewable energy sources and co-
generation in existing buildings, and interventions in the lighting sector. 
Measures taken in the transport sector are replacement of old vehicles, development of public 
transport services and the establishment of inspections and standards. In the forestry sector, 
reafforestation programmes are on the way. 
CH4 and N20 
Greece adopted the following measures to reduce CH4 and N20 emissions: 
promotion of the use of biogas in controlled waste disposal sites; 
reduction of solid waste production by the implementation of recycling programmes; 
improvements of the natural gas distribution system to prevent leakages; 
the adoption of a "Code of Good Agricultural Practices for the Protection of Water", 
addressing among others manure disposal and the rational use of fertilizers; 
subsidizing of ecological agriculture. 
Ireland 
Ireland submitted its national communication to the UN FCCC in October 199423. As a member of 
the EU, Ireland is involved in the achievement of the stabilisation objective of the Union as a whole 
at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The national objective of Ireland is to limit C02 emissions so as not 
to exceed 36 988 Gg of C02 in the year 2000. This would represent an increase of 20% above 1990 
levels, or an increase of 11% if account is taken of increased carbon sinks capacity. According to 
Ireland's national communication, this national target is based on the EU policy which recognizes 
that a number of Member States, including Ireland, will need targets and measures which will 
accommodate necessary economic growth. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.7 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Ireland in 1990 and 2000. C02 
emissions in Ireland are expected to increase by 20% in 2000 compared to 1990 levels. CH4 
emissions are expected to increase slightly in 2000 compared to 1990 levels, while N20 emissions 
are expected to increase by 3%. 
Table 5.7. Emissions of CO,, CH4 and NX» in Ireland in 1990 and 2000 (Gg),. 
1990 2ÔÔÔ 
CO: 30,719 36,988 
CH~ 795.9 798.6 
N?0 42.3 43.7 
Ireland. Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Prepared 
for the Conference of the Parties in accordance with Article 12 of the Framework Convention 
on Climate Change. Department of the Environment, Ireland. October 1994. 
47 
Policies and measures 
Ireland's national programme includes policies and measures in the field of energy, transport, waste 
and forestry. 
Energy 
Within the energy sector a number of programmes are underway including: 
promotion of more efficient use of energy by consumers in the domestic, industrial and 
commercial sectors, including maintenance and operation standards; 
insulation standards for new buildings; 
the establishment of a new energy body, the Irish Energy Centre, to operate an enhanced 
energy conservation programme; 
initiatives under the EU programmes SAVE and ALTENER; 
promotion of the use of natural gas and renewables. 
Transport 
Within the transport sector, the National Development Plan 1994-1999 and the Operational 
Programme on Transport provides major investments to improve public transport and traffic 
management. 
Waste 
A recycling strategy for waste has recently been published. The potentials of CH4 
recovery from landfills are being examined. 
Forestry 
Ireland's annual target for planting (afforestation and reafforestation) is 30 000 hectares. 
Italy 
Italy submitted its national communication to the secretariat of the UN FCCC at 16 January 199524. 
Italy complies with the decisions taken by the EC on 29 October 1990 to stabilize CO; emissions by 
the year 2000 at 1990 levels. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.8 provides emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Italy in 1990 and projected emissions in 2000. 
Compared with actual emissions in 1990, C02 emissions are expected to increase by 11% in 2000, a 
CH4 emission reduction is expected of 15% in 2000 compared with 1990, and N:0 emissions in 
2000 are expected to be at roughly the same level as 1990 emissions. 
First Italian National Communication to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Ministry of Environment, January 1995. 
48 
Table 5.8. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Italy in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 20001 
C02 392,213 435,710 
CH4 3,901 3,300 
N20 120 119.4 
1 Based on "Business as Usual" Scenario 
Policies and measures 
Italy's strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions includes policies and measures in the energy, 
transport, waste, forestry and agricultural sector. 
Energy 
The national programme consists of packages of measures aiming at the electricity generating 
industry and at private production. Programmes have been set up for thermal power stations, aiming 
at the increased use of natural gas. Energy efficiency is promoted by increasing combined heat and 
power in private industrial production of electricity. Italy adopted various degrees to reduce energy 
demand in the residential/commercial and residential sector. A voluntary system has been set up to 
improve environmental management in industries. 
Transport 
An investment plan is being implemented to expand the railway network and the urban underground 
railway network. A pilot programme is under way aiming at the use of alternative fuels in urban 
transport systems. Tax exemptions for alternative fuels are adopted. 
Waste Management 
Financial incentives are being provided to promote differentiated waste collection and for the 
construction of waste disposal sites. The use of biogas from waste disposal sites is being promoted. 
Forestry and Agriculture 
Italy adopted a National Forestry Plan in 1987. This plan includes among other incentives to promote 
reforestation, improvement of forestry management and research and promotional activities for the 
wood industry. Several EU regulations have been implemented leading to a reduction in the use of 
nitrogen fertilizers. 
49 
Luxembourg 
Luxembourg submitted its national communication to the secretariat of the UN FCCC at March 
199525. Luxembourg adopted the national target to reduce C02 emissions by 20% by the year 2005 at 
1990 levels. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.9 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Luxembourg in 1990 and 2000. C02 
emissions are expected to decrease by 33% in 2000 compared to 1990 levels. CH4 emissions are 
expected to increase by 5% in 2000 compared to 1990 levels, and N20 emissions are expected to 
increase by 3%. 
Table 5.9. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Luxembourg in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
Ï99Ô 2ÔÏÏÔ 
C02 11,244' 7,556 
CH4 24.6 2 26.1 
N20 0.6913 0.693 
Including 105 Gg of "Nature" emissions. 
Including 0.802 Gg of "Nature" emissions 
Including 0.091 Gg of "Nature" emissions 
Policies and measures 
Energy conservation and the promotion of renewable energy sources are important elements of 
Luxembourg's national programme of Luxembourg. In 1993, a law has been adopted concerning the 
rational use of energy. This law aims to promote energy savings and the rational use of energy in all 
economic sectors, and to promote the use of alternative energy sources. As yet, regulations have been 
adopted concerning the use of renewable energy sources and cogeneration for energy production. In 
1991. the Agency for Energy has been established, promoting innovative and pilot projects in the 
field of renewable energy sources, and the rational use of energy. Structural changes in the iron and 
steel industry from conventional plants to electric arc furnaces will contribute significantly to the 
limitation of C02 emissions. Luxembourg's national programme lists inter alia the following measures 
which have been adopted and/or implemented: 
Energy 
establishment of combined heat and power stations; 
grants to promote investments in energy saving measures; 
Transport 
improvement of public transport and rail connections; 
development of combined transport services for freight transport; 
Rapport National du Luxembourg en vue de la Ie Conference des Parties a la Convention-Cadres des 
Nations-Unies sur les Changement Climatiques. Ministère de l'Environnement, Mars 1995. 
50 
development of water transport by the construction of a channel m cooperation with France 
and Germany; 
promotion of cleaner technologies for buses; 
Industrial sector 
licenses for new enterprises include obligations for the application of "best available 
technologies"; existing enterprises need to use best available technologies in future; 
Domestic sector 
introduction of subsidies for insulation of housing; 
studies are being earned out on energy savings and the use of renewable energy sources. 
The Netherlands 
The Netherlands' national communication was submitted to the secretariat of the UN FCCC at 21 
September 199426. The national C02 target adopted by the Netherlands is to stabilize emissions by 
1994-1995 and to achieve an emission reduction of 3-5% by 2000 compared to 1989-1990. The CH4 
emission reduction target is 10% by 2000 compared to the 1990 level and the target for N20 is to 
stabilize emissions at the 1990 level by 2000. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.10 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in the Netherlands in 1990 and in 
2000 according to the draft IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. The national 
C02 target is based on another inventory methodology. So, C02 emission projections for the year 
2000 calculated according to the IPCC methodology cannot be compared with the national C02 
target. According to the Netherlands' projections (based on the IPCC methodology), the national C02 
and CH4 targets are likely to be achieved. A C02 emission reduction of approximately 4% compared 
to 1990 levels is expected by the year 2000. This estimate is based on temperature corrected figures 
for C02 emissions in 1990. Compared to actual C02 emissions in 1990, a C02 emission stabilisation 
is expected by the year 2000. CH4 emissions are expected to decrease by about 25% by the year 
2000. The stabilisation target for N20 emissions is unlikely to be achieved: emissions are expected to 
increase by 5% by 2000. 
Table 5.10 Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in the Netherlands in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 174,000' 167,600 
CH4 1,067 786 
N20 59.6 62.2 
C02 emissions corrected for temperature influences. Actual emissions in 1990 amount to 167,600 Gg. 
26 Netherlands' National Communication on Climate Change Policies. Prepared for the Conference 
of the Parties under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Netherlands, August 
1994. 
51 
Policies and measures 
The Netherlands' policy package to address climate change has been formulated in a number of 
memoranda and plans (such as in the National Environmental Policy Plan 2 and the Second 
Memorandum on Energy Conservation) and has been approved by Parliament. It includes a wide 
range of policies and measures in various sectors, primarily energy, transport and waste. 
C02 
To a large extent, the policy package for reducing C02 emissions is directed at energy conservation. 
The package consists of voluntary agreements (especially with industry, including the energy and 
transformation sector and the energy distribution sector), standards (especially for residential use and 
for buildings), transport infrastructure investment, financial support for renewables and energy 
conservation, and reduction of waste landfilling in addition to energy recovery. In selecting 
appropriate instruments, preference is given to support for 'self-regulation', i.e. voluntary agreements. 
This usually takes the form of a Long Term Agreement between the Government and intermediary 
organisations, such as branch organisations. The principle reason for the emphasis on voluntary 
agreements is the acceptance of measures by all relevant participants. 
CH4 
Direct measures for reducing methane emissions include regulations for waste management and 
improvement of gas distribution networks. Agro-environmental policies and the Common 
Agricultural Policy of the European Community will lead to a decreasing number of cattle and 
manure production. 
N20 
Specific policies whose aim is the reduction of N20 emissions are being studied. Any reduction in 
N20 emissions is the result of policies in other areas than climate change, mainly the acidification 
abatement policy. 
Portugal 
Portugal submitted its national communication to the secretariat of the UN FCCC at the end of 
199427 Portugal's strategy to mitigate climate change is "in compliance with its commitments as a 
European Union country, in accordance with the principle of joint but different responsibilities." 
Portugal adopted the national target of limiting the increase of C02 emissions to 40% in 2000 
compared to 1990. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.11 provides emissions of CO:, CH4 and N20 in Portugal in 1990 and projected emissions in 
2000. C02 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to increase by 29% in the year 2000 compared 
with 1990 emissions. Portugal's national communication does not provide projections for future CH4 
and N20 emissions. 
Portuguese report in accordance with Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention 
on Climate Change. Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources, Lisbon, 1994. 
52 
Table 5.11. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Portugal in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 42,148 54,274' 
CH4 227 NE 
N20 10.6 NE 
1 Relates to C02 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. 1990 C02 emissions from fossil fuel 
combustion amount to 38,686 Gg. 
Policies and measures 
Portugal's strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions includes policies and measures in the 
energy, industrial, transport and agricultural sector. 
Energy 
The major policies adopted in the energy sector by Portugal are in compliance with environmental 
protection objectives, aiming at an increase m diversification and energy efficiency, the use of clean 
technologies and the promotion of renewable energy sources. Policies and measures include: 
the use of natural gas for electricity production and end use (starting in 1997); 
promotion of combined heat and power in various industrial sectors; 
promotion of renewable energy sources for energy production; 
improvements of efficiency of thermal power stations; 
promotion of rational use of energy in all end users sectors. 
Industry 
In the industrial sector, economic instruments, legislative measures and information campaigns are 
adopted to support environmental protection. 
Transport 
Policy measures in the transport sector are targeted at strengthening the competitiveness of rail 
transport. Important investments have been made in both road and rail infrastructure. 
Agriculture and forestry 
Policies and measures in the agncultural sector relate to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 
reform of the EC, which is targeted at reducing incentives for agncultural production. Support 
measures introduced within the context of the CAP reform lead to reduction in the use of fertilizers 
and the number of cattle, and thus to a reduction in CH4 and N20 emissions. Measures taken in the 
forestry sector encourage the maintenance, expansion and protection of forests. 
53 
Spain 
Spain submitted its national communication to the UN FCCC in September 199428. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.12 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Spain in 1990 and 2000. The 
projected C02 emissions in 2000 only relate to energy. C02 emissions from fuel combustion are 
expected to increase by 24% in 2000 compared to 1990 levels. Spain's national communication did 
not provide projections for CH4 and N20. 
Table 5.12. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Spain in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 260,655' 276,5042 
CH4 2,129.8 
N,0 86.5 
Total CO: emissions. Spain included in its national communication an estimate for total net emissions, 
including CO; removals by land use change and forestry, amounting to 256,476 Gg. 
2 Energy related C02 emissions. Energy related C02 emissions in 1990 amounted to 222,908 Gg. 
Policies and measures 
The mam element of Spain's national programme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is the 1991 
National Energy Plan. Measures are also taken in the industry, transport, agriculture and forestry 
sector. 
Energy 
The main instrument of the 1991 National Energy Plan to address the greenhouse effect is the 
Energy Saving and Efficiency Plan. This plan consists of four sets of measures: 
the Energy Saving Programme to reduce the final energy consumption without reducing 
the economic activity; 
the Energy Substitution Programme to increase the use of natural gas as an alternative to 
oil and coal products in industry and in the residential and commercial sector; 
the Cogeneration Programme to encourage combined heat and power generation. Projects 
are especially aiming at energy-intensive industnes (such as refining and chemicals), and in 
hotels and hostels; 
the Renewable Energies Programme to increase the use of renewable energy sources for 
electricity generation and for end use. 
The 1991 National Energy Plan also includes measures in the energy generation and supply sector. 
The main measures in this area are fuel switching to natural gas, and the promotion of clean coal 
technologies. 
Report by Spain on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Provisional 
Version. National Climate Committee. Spain. 
54 
Industry 
The Industrial and Technological Environmental Programme encourages industry to meet increasingly 
stringent environmental standards. 
Transport 
State subsidies are granted to promote public transport. The Plan on Transport in Large Cities 1990-
1993 aims to modernize public transport systems. Freight transport by rail is encouraged. 
Agriculture 
Relevant agricultural policy includes energy saving measures, the use of biomass as an energy 
source, information on good farmers practices regarding the storage of manure and the application of 
fertilizers. 
Forestry 
Cooperation agreements between the Spanish Government and the Autonomous Communities, which 
already lead to reafforestation of 63 700 hectares took place between 1990 and 1993. Further, efforts 
are undertaken to prevent forest fires and to protect ecosystems against pests and atmospheric 
pollution. 
Sweden 
The Swedish Government adopted its national communication on the 15th of September 199429. 
Since 1970, C02 emissions have been reduced with approximately 40%. The national target adopted 
by Sweden is, pursuant to the UN FCCC, to stabilize C02 emissions from fossil fuels in the year 
2000 at the 1990 level and to reduce these emissions after that. Furthermore, CH4 emissions from 
landfills shall be reduced by 30% between 1990 and 2000. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.13 provides details of emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in Sweden in 1990 and 2000. Sweden 
stresses that estimates of C02 emissions in 1990 are based on actual emissions, and that these 
estimates have not been adjusted for temperature influences. If figures are adjusted for average 
climatic circumstances, C02 emissions in 2000 are expected to be at the same level as C02 emissions 
in 1990. If compared to actual emissions in 1990, C02 emissions are expected to increase by 4% in 
2000. CH4 emissions are expected to decrease by 10% in 2000 compared to 1990 levels, and N20 
emissions by 15%. 
Sweden's national report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources, September 1994. 
55 
Table 5.13. Emissions of C02, CH„ and N20 in Sweden in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 61,256' 63,800 
CH4 329 300 
N20 15.2 13 
1 Actual C02 emissions. C02 emissions adjusted for temperature influences amount to 64,000 
Gg. 
Policies and measures 
A concrete strategy for Swedish climate policy has been formulated in the "Government Bill on 
Actions to Counteract Climate Change" of 1993. The main element of Sweden's strategy is to limit 
the demand for fossil fuels and to increase the contribution of renewable energy sources, along with 
improved energy management and more efficient use of energy. Taxation of fossil fuels is the central 
policy instrument to limit C02 emissions. 
Energy and transportation 
Measures to improve energy efficiency include technology procurement and demonstration of energy 
electricity efficient products, processes and systems in homes, non-housing premises and industry. In 
1991, a C02 tax was introduced as part of a major tax reform, aiming to reduce taxes on income and 
capital and to increase environmental taxes. Several programmes have been adopted to promote and 
stimulate energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources. These programmes include the 
programme for energy management and promotion of biofuels, wind power and solar energy. In the 
transport sector, several research and development programmes (concerning the use of alternative 
fuels and hybrid and electrical vehicles) have started. Since only 5% of the electricity production in 
Sweden is based on fossil fuels, the potential of greenhouse gas reduction in the electricity sector is 
very limited. 
Forestry and agriculture 
Sweden adopted various measures to reduce carbon releases from soils, e.g. through restrictions on 
forest site preparation operations and drainage. Some of the policies of the new agricultural policy 
adopted in 1990 indirectly effect greenhouse gas emissions. These include improved nitrogen 
application methods, land use change from arable land to grazing grounds or forests, and increased 
use of winter overgrown land. 
United Kingdom 
The United Kingdom's national communication was published in January 1994 and presented to the 
Ninth Session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC)30. An executive summary and 
minimum tables for greenhouse gas emissions according to the guidelines for the preparation of first 
Climate Change. The UK report. United Kingdom's Report under the Framework Convention 
on Climate Change. January 1994. 
56 
communications by Annex I countries (Decision 9/2, INC/FCCC, 1994) was submitted in August 
1994. The UK's C02 programme is currently being updated in the light of new energy projections 
published in March 1995 and other developments which have taken place since the programme was 
first published. This update will be available in the autumn of 1995. Figures for C02 emissions given 
in this document are based on the forthcoming update. 
The UK accepts the commitment of the UN FCCC to take measures aimed at returning emissions of 
greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. 
Emissions in 1990 and 2000 
Table 5.14 provides emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in the United Kingdom in 1990 and projected 
emissions in 2000 taking into account the policies and measures in the national programme. The 
programme is expected to produce a small reduction in C02 emissions, a 10% reduction of CH4 
emissions and a 75% reduction of N20 emissions. 
Table 5.14. Emissions of C02, CH4 and N20 in the United Kingdom in 1990 and 2000 (Gg). 
1990 2000 
C02 580,268 551,283 
CH4 4,844 4,400 
N20 109 30 
Policies and measures 
The UK's national communication "Climate Change; the UK Programme" sets out measures aimed at 
returning emissions of each of the main greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. 
C02 
The C02 programme is based on a national partnership approach drawn up after extensive public 
consultation, involving business, voluntary, environmental and other interest groups. Measures are 
spread across all sectors: 
domestic energy consumption, through measures which include the introduction of taxation 
on domestic fuel and power, and a new Energy Saving Trust; 
energy consumption by business, including energy efficiency advice and information; 
energy consumption by the public sector, through targets for central and local government 
and public sector bodies; and 
transport, through increases in road fuel duties, and a commitment to real increases of at 
least 5% on average in future budgets. 
CH4 
Initiatives are being taken to encourage the use of CH4 for energy generation and reducing emissions 
from coal production. New guidance on limiting emissions from several industrial sectors is also 
being prepared. 
57 
N20 
An 75% reduction is expected by 2000 compared to 1990 levels, mainly through the reduction of 
nitrous oxide emissions from nylon manufacture. 
5.3. Summary 
All Member States, except Belgium, ratified the UN FCCC and submitted their national 
communications to the secretariat of the UN FCCC. Besides the commitments of the UN FCCC, 
most of the Member States adopted also national targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, varying 
in objectives and time scales. All Member States, except Belgium, carried out inventories of C02, 
CH4 and N20 emissions in 1990. Belgium provided estimates of C02 emissions in 1990. Estimates 
for emissions in 1990 provided in the national reports are not always comparable. In general, the 
draft IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories have been used, while some countries 
base their estimates on CORINAIR. Some countries apply conection factors to adjust for temperature 
influences or for imported/exported electricity. 
Most of the Member States provided projections of C02, CH4 and N20 emissions in 2000. Important 
to note is that projections of greenhouse gas emissions included in the national reports are not 
comparable and cannot be added together. The projections included in the national reports have been 
compiled using various modelling tools, key input assumptions, sources projected, and the 
representation of measures and policies. Some Member States have only estimated fuel related C02 
emissions in 2000, and one Member State projected emissions in 2005 instead of 2000. Further, the 
projections do not always only take account of adopted measures, but include proposed measures as 
well. 
8 Member States expect an increase in C02 emissions in 2000 compared to 1990: Austria, Finland, 
France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. 1 Member State expects to reach a stabilisation of 
C02 emissions in 1990: Sweden3' and 5 Member States are expecting a decrease in C02 emissions in 
2000: Belgium, Denmark32, Luxembourg, the Netherlands33 and the United Kingdom. Germany 
provides a projection for C02 emissions in 2005 and expects a C02 emission reduction by that year. 
11 Member States provided projections of CH4 and N20 emissions in 2000. 2 of them expect an 
increase in CH4 emissions: Ireland and Luxembourg; Another 2 expect a stabilization: Austria and 
France. The remaining 7 Member States expect a reduction in CH4 emissions: Denmark, Finland, 
Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. 
31 If based on temperature corrected C02 emissions in 1990. If projected figures are compared with actual CO: 
emissions in 1990, an increase in C02 emissions of 4% is estimated. 
If based on C02 emissions in 1990 which have been corrected for electricity import fluctuations. If projected 
figures are compared with actual C02 emissions in 1990, an increase in C02 emissions of 3% is estimated. 
If based on temperature corrected CO; emissions in 1990. If projected figures are compared with actual CO: 
emissions in 1990, C02 emissions are estimated to stabilize. 
58 
6 Member States expect an increase in N20 emissions: Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, 
Luxembourg and the Netherlands while 2 Member States expect a stabilization: Austria and Italy; 
and 3 other Member States expect a reduction in N20 emissions: France, Sweden and the United 
Kingdom. Germany provided projections for 2005 and expects a reduction in both CH4 and N20 
emissions. 
59 
PROJECTIONS OF CO, EMISSIONS IN 2000 
6.1.Introduction 
This chapter provides first estimates of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions in the 
European Community. As a first attempt to arrive at greenhouse gas emission projection, several 
scenarios have been applied. These, as well as the modelling techniques used, are described in 
section 6.2. Section 6.3 provides estimates of C02 emissions in 1990, 2000 and 2020. 
The 1990 figures presented in this section differ from the figures provided in the 1990 EC emission 
inventory given in chapter 3, since they are estimated using the same methodology as has been used 
for the 2000, 2010 and 2020 figures. The 1990 figures presented here are only provided to show the 
trend in C02 emissions in the European Community. 
It should be stressed that the simulations descnbed in this chapter are not official simulations to 
assess the impact of climate change policies in the EC. The results of the simulations are provided as 
a first indication of future EC greenhouse gas emission. Further work is being undertaken to develop 
more accurate modelling tools and scenarios. 
The models and scenarios used to arrive at the projections for future EC emissions differ, in structure 
and in assumptions with regard to exogenous variables, from the models and scenarios used by 
Member States to forecast their C02 emissions (see Chapter 5). Results are therefore not comparable. 
Estimates of the effects of policies and measures on greenhouse gas emissions, if available, have 
been provided in chapter 4. 
6.2.Modelling techniques and scenarios 
The projections of future EC greenhouse gas emissions provided in this chapter are based on the EC 
model MIDAS (Model Integrating Demand and Supply) and various scenarios, which differ in 
assumptions with regard to exogenous variables. Below, a short desenption of MIDAS and the 
various scenarios is provided. Annex 2 provides a more detailed outline of the scenarios applied. 
MIDAS (Model Integrating Demand and Supply) 
Funded by the EC JOULE programme, the large scale energy system planning and forecasting model 
MIDAS (Model Integrating Demand and Supply) has been developed. MIDAS performs a dynamic 
simulation of the energy system, which is represented by combining engineering process analysis and 
econometric formulations. The model is used for scenario analysis and forecasting. An econometric 
top-down approach has been combined with a micro-economic approach. 
MIDAS covers the whole energy system, including energy demand by sector and fuel, power 
generation, oil refinenes, natural gas, solid fuels production, imports and energy market prices. The 
6c 
model ensures, on an annual basis, the consistent and simultaneous projection of energy demand, 
energy supply, energy pricing and costing, so that the system is in a quantity and price-dependent 
balance. On the basis of exogenous projections of import prices, macroeconomic indicators and 
resource availability, MIDAS forecasts energy demand and computes the necessary capacity 
expansion and operation of the supply sectors to meet demand and their mutual energy exchanges. 
The model evaluates the energy production costs by sector and fuel and determines consumer prices, 
by considering also international energy prices, the national pricing policy and the government tax 
policy. Consumer prices are feeding again the demand sub-model that re-adjusts demand projections 
and, therefore, supply activities. Thus, a closed-loop iteration is established which converges on an 
annual basis to provide a consistent simulation of energy demand, supply and prices. Emission 
factors per plant and fuel are incorporated in the model to calculate emissions. 
Conventional Wisdom scenario 
The Conventional Wisdom scenario denotes the "business as usual" world, representing a 
conventional wisdom view of the most likely evolution of events. Economic growth gradually 
weakens in the long term. The GDP growth rates in the EC are expected to decrease from 2.9% in 
the period 1995-2000 to 1.8% in the penod 2015-2020. Energy policy remains fragmented, the result 
of unresolved conflicting objectives for competitiveness, environment, security of supply and 
differing national aims. Some penetration of new, more efficient demand and supply technologies is 
expected. Regarding energy demand issues, continuation of current actions with some concern on 
increasing efficiency is expected. Energy prices are increasing smoothly. Gas prices are relatively 
low compared to oil prices, due to deregulation and growing networks. The development of energy 
prices can be found in Table 6.1. 
Table 6.1. Primary energy prices (in constant 1993 prices and exchange rates). Conventional 
Wisdom Scenario. 
Crude oil 
(ECU/toe) Natural Gas 
N. Europe 
(ECU/toe) Natural Gas 
S. Europe 
(ECU/toe) Steam Coal 
(ECU/toe) 
1990 
1995 
2000 
2005 
2010 
2015 
2020 188.1 
128.5 
153.3 
182.5 
211.7 
219.0 
226.3 101.5 
91.5 
123.6 
139.9 
158.3 
161.8 
167.2 111.6 
100.6 
133.5 
148.2 
164.6 
164.9 
167.2 65.0 
54.8 
60.0 
63.0 
64.0 
68.0 
75.0 
Battlefield scenario 
In the Battlefield scenario the world reverts to isolation, power blocs and protectionism. 
Contradictions and instabilities in the global system make economic integration very difficult. 
Globalization is seen as too ambitious. The geopolitical system fragments into blocs, with tensions 
and friction between and within blocs. The GDP growth rates in the EC are expected to decrease 
from 3.1% in the period 1995-2000 to 1.3 in the period 2015-2020. Energy policies are aimed at 
reducing import dependency. Supply side measures are likely to be more successful than demand 
61 
side measures. In spite of attempts to introduce alternative fuels, tension and conflict inhibit 
efficiency gains. The increasing dependency on fewer major suppliers leads to an oil pnce shock. 
Some penetration of new, more efficient demand and supply technologies is expected, partly driven 
by public standards and partly through industnal competitiveness. 
Forum scenario 
In Forum, the world moves more to consensus and cooperative international structures with a strong 
role for public administration and intervention. The process of global integration produces new 
imperatives for collective public action. National, European and international institutions are 
gradually restructured so as to be able to deal more effectively with broader, more complex shared 
problems and interests. The GDP growth rate in the EC increases from 2.3% in the penod 1995-2000 
to 2.6% in the period 2010-2015 and decreases somewhat after that period. Energy policies are most 
significantly affected by concern for the environment. Major policy shifts are expected through 
reinforced environmental concerns, limiting energy demand growth. Energy prices are expected to be 
stable. A strong penetration of more efficient demand and supply technologies will occur, which will 
go together with a high level of technology transfer. 
Hypermarket scenario 
In the Hypermarket scenario, the predominant themes are market forces, liberalism and free trade; 
there is a minimum of intervention from government and public administrators. Global economic 
integration is self-reinforcing and continues. The force driving this scenario is continued application 
of the market mechanism which is seen as the best way to produce wealth and handle complexity 
and uncertainty. Liberalization and privatization deliver results and produce new market entrants who 
demand more of the same. The GDP growth rates in the EC are expected to decrease from 3.2% in 
the period 1995-2000 to 1.9% in the penod 2015-2020. Energy policy is driven by the desire to 
minimise government control and maximise efficient operations of free markets, nonetheless 
achieving desired standards. A strong growth in energy demand is expected. Penetration of new, 
more efficient demand and supply technologies depends on market forces and international 
competition. Energy prices are increasing smoothly. 
6.3.Trends in C02 emissions 
Table 6.2 provides projections of energy related C02 emissions in 2000, 2010 and 2020. It should be 
noted that these results are first estimates of future EC greenhouse gas emissions. For reasons of 
companson, estimates of C02 emissions are also provided for the year 1990, using the same 
calculation methodology. Since the calculation methodology differs, the 1990 emission estimates 
provided in this section cannot be compared with the EC emission inventory as included in Chapter 
3. 
According to the Conventional Wisdom Scenano, which denotes the "business as usual" world 
representing a conventional wisdom view of the most likely evaluation of events, C02 emissions in 
the EC are expected to increase with 5% by the year 2000, with 13% by the year 2010 and with 
16% by the year 2020 (compared with 1990 levels). The results of the Hypermarket scenario, which 
62 
gives a predominant role to market forces, liberalism and free trade, show a similar increase: an 
increase is expected of 5%, 14% and 17% for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 respectively. The 
Battlefield scenario, which assumes, amongst others, that the world reverts to isolation, power blocs 
and protectionism, results in a decreasing growth of C02 emissions: an increase of 6% in 2000, of 
9% in 2010 and of 7% in 2020. According to the Forum scenario, which assumes, amongst others, 
that the world moves more to consensus and cooperative international structures with a strong role 
for public administration and intervention, a reduction in C02 emissions is expected: 2% in 2000, 5% 
in 2010 and 10% in 2020. 
Table 6.2. Trends in energy related C02 emissions in the EUR-15. (1000 Gg.); preliminary 
results. 
1990 2000 2010 2020 
Conventional Wisdom 3,155(0) 3,326(+5%) 3,557(+13%) 3,648(+16%) 
Battlefield 3,155(0) 3,357(+6%) 3,428(+9%) 3,368(+7%) 
Forum 3,155(0) 3,089(-2%) 2,986(-5%) 2,855(-10%) 
Hypermarket 3,155(0) 3,325(+5%) 3,597(+14%) 3,686(+17%) 
63 
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 
7.1. Introduction 
This chapter describes the possible impacts of climate change on the European Community and 
adaptation activities taken at the Community level. The Second, Third and Fourth Framework 
Programme of Research and Development contain specific programmes dealing with the assessment 
of possible impacts of climate change on various environmental sectors. The programmes on climate 
change impacts include research on sea level rise and subsequent impacts on European coastal 
resources, and the impacts of climate change on European land resources (agnculture and forestry). 
Also included in the research programmes is the research on "Desertification in the Mediterranean 
Area", as well as studies related to the socio-economic impacts of and policy responses to extreme 
events due to climate change. Section 7.2 provides a brief overview of the possible impacts of 
climate change on the European Community. Details on research programmes related to climate 
change are not discussed in this section, but can be found in Chapter 9 "Research and Development". 
Section 7.3 gives a brief overview of adaptation activities taken at the Community level. 
7.2.Possible impacts of climate change on the European Community 
Temperature increases 
The timing and extent of a possible rise in temperature due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is 
highly uncertain, in particular on a local or regional level. Although the results of models predicting 
the increase in temperature can only be considered as rough estimates, it has become clear that 
temperature increases will be greater in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes. Therefore, it is 
expected that the extent of temperature increases in northern Europe will be larger than the 
temperature increase in the Meditenanean regions. Assuming a doubling of atmospheric C02 
concentrations, scenario studies show that average winter temperatures in the far northern countries 
may increase by 2-5 °C, while the winters in the central and southern region can be 1-3 °C warmer. 
For the summer, average temperatures are 3-4 °C warmer throughout all of Europe (Thimbal et al., 
1995; Cabasch et al., 1995). Aerosols emitted in the atmosphere have a net negative radiative 
forcing. However, any negative forcing due to aerosols cannot be regarded as a simple offset to the 
effect of greenhouse gases, because the regional patterns of the forcing are different (IPCC, 1994). 
Precipitation 
Large uncertainties exists with regard to the impacts of climate change on precipitation. Most likely 
summers will be drier. This is partly because earlier snow melt would affect the seasonal cycle of 
soil moisture reserves, and partly because warmer temperatures may lead to increased evaporation 
and évapotranspiration (Warnck et al., 1990). 
The IPCC (Houghton et al., 1992) estimated under their business-as-usual scenario that the 
greenhouse effect can lead to 15 -25 % less soil moisture in summer for Mediterranean countnes. 
Since these countries already depend heavily on irrigation, this may have enormous impacts on their 
agricultural potentials. Increased andity may also lead to severe land degradation due to the 
breakdown of organic matter, salt accumulation and the formation of surface crusts. Therefore, 
impacts on the agricultural potential could be even more severe. 
64 
Water resources 
Climate change also has significant potential impacts on water resources, their distnbution in space 
and time, the hydrological cycle of water masses, water quality and water supply systems and 
requirements for water resources of different regions. This may lead to complex impacts on natural 
resources and human activities, in particular water storage and distribution, agriculture and electrical 
energy production. One of the most vulnerable areas in the European Community, with respect to 
impacts on water resources, is the Mediterranean area. 
Sea level rise and extreme events 
Sea level rise is one of the main impacts of global warming, due to the thermal expansion of sea 
water, the melting of mountain glaciers, the melting of inland ice caps and changes in the Antarctic 
ice sheet. Consequent effects of sea level rise vary from continuously inundation of low-lying lands, 
increased frequency of flooding, changes in erosion of beach, cliff or dunes, salinisation and changes 
in nver hydrology. A changed sea level is also likely to have impacts on the tides, by altering the 
resonance of sea basins. 
The recent best-estimate business-as-usual scenario of a greenhouse gas induced rise in the global sea 
surface of 45 cm by 2100 provides only a general guide for possible changes in the relative sea level 
along the European coasts. Climate change affects to a large extent the occurence and severity of 
extreme events. Flooding associated with major storms is most likely of greater consequence than sea 
level rise on a human time scale. However, knowlegde of the pattern and incidence of storminess 
around European coasts is limited to a few areas in North West Europe and parts of the 
Mediterranean. The impact of major storms will become more widespread as the sea surface rises. 
Especially in the North and Mediterranean Seas, the impacts of storms are a matter of particular 
concern. Currently, the EC administers several contracts to estimate the risk of coastal flooding along 
selected areas of the European Coastline and to provide bases for the monitoring and mapping of 
coastal changes on European coasts and of the impacts of change. 
Agriculture 
Although uncertainties remain in research results, it has been found that higher temperatures will 
shorten the duration of the growing period for annual crops (Harrison and Parry, 1993). This will 
lead to a decreased yield of the crop, although the direct fertilizer effects of increased C02 
concentrations may offset this for some crops. Conditions in southern Europe will generally become 
hotter and probably dner, which will have negative effects on crop yields. Parts of western Europe 
(e.g. northern France and Germany) may benefit if there is an average increase in precipitation. 
Agricultural practices, such as sowing times, irrigation and the use of cultivars may have to change 
due to higher temperatures and potential droughts. 
Grassland production is expected to increase across Europe (Jones et al. 1993). The production will 
be stimulated by the direct fertilizer effect of C02 and temperature increases. Assuming an equivalent 
doubling of preindustnal C02 levels, grassland production in temperate Europe will be about 10-15% 
higher than at present due to the direct fertilizer effect and a further 18% higher than at present due 
to the expected temperature increase. 
Forestry 
Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are likely to alter the composition, distribution and 
growth patterns of forests. To avert irreparable damage and loss of forests, research programmes are 
being carried out to quantify the impacts of climate change on the forestry sector. Based on these 
studies, it can be concluded that responses vary not only between species, but also between juvenile 
and mature tissues. Nutrition is also a very important parameter in the responses of the plant to 
elevated CO^ concentrations. 
65 
Only indicative estimates are available of regional effects of climate change on vegetation zones. 
However, models suggest a north-northeast movement of vegetation zones over Europe (Bengtsson, 
1994). 
Analysis of impacts in monetary terms 
Although large uncertainties exist with respect to the type and magnitude of climate change impacts, 
experts and policy makers recognize that global warming will take place over the next century. 
Climate change is likely to affect nearly all economic sectors. An analysis of economic impacts for 
EUR-12 (ERM, 1992a) shows that although global warming will most likely result in a net economic 
cost for the EC as a whole, there will be sectoral and regional variations. For example, it is likely 
that there will be an increase in revenue to the agricultural sector as a whole in the EC, but this is 
due to large increases in northern Europe outweighing losses m revenue in southern Europe. 
Economic costs in the EC are likely to occur in other economic sectors, although economic benefits 
may occur in some regions, e.g. tourism in Belgium, manufactunng in Luxembourg and the services 
sector in the UK. 90% of the accumulated economic costs is likely to occur in the second half of the 
next century. 
Monetary impact values have been estimated by impact indicator and by country (ERM, 1992b). 
Annual costs have been estimated, assuming a global warming of 1 °C and 4 °C. Assuming that no 
action is taken to control emissions, global warming could range from approximately 0.5 °C to 1 °C 
in the year 2020, and from 1.75 °C to 4 °C in the year 2100. Monetary impact values are related to 
levels of global warming rather than to particular years in the future. The years in which such values 
can be expected to occur depends on the emission control scenario selected. For this reason the 
estimates are presented as annual values and are not discounted.As the monetary' impact values are 
not related to time, no projected economic growth rate is incorporated in the calculations. National 
income is assumed to remain constant. 
Table 7.1 shows the monetary impact values for the EUR-12 at 1°C and 4°C. It can be seen that 
economic damage costs are likely to be significant as a proportion of GDP. Although the indicators 
agricultural yields, comfort threshold and heating and cooling degree days are positive, the total is 
negative. This is caused by the high economic costs of sea level nse. 
Table 7.1. Monetary impact values for the EUR-12 by impact indication per year (Bn 1989 
ECU1) and as % of 1989 National Income 
Bn 1989 ECU1 % of National Income 
Global Temperature increase 1.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 
Sea level rise 
Run-off 
Comfort Threshold2 
Heating and cooling degree days 
Agricultural yields -67.6 
-5.7 
4.7 
13.4 
3.2 -272.2 
-18.4 
27.1 
35.5 
12.2 -1.9 
-0.2 
0.1 
0.4 
0.1 -7.6 
-0.5 
0.8 
1.0 
0.3 
Source: ERM. 1992 b. 
Billion of ECU, 1989 level. 
Indicator based on temperature, precipitation and sunshine, indicating the attractiveness for 
tourism. 
66 
Table 7.2 shows the monetary impact values for the Member States of EUR-12. It can be seen that 
significant differences exist between countries. For southern EC countries, monetary impact values 
are mostly negative: cooling requirements increase, and the attractiveness for tourism is decreasing 
due to the negative effects of sea level rise and water shortages. An exception is the agricultural 
yield indicator, which is positive or zero for all Member States. It should be noted that a positive 
indicator for agricultural yield does not imply that the agricultural sector as a whole will face 
economic benefits. Other factors such as the total agricultural land potential play an important role as 
well. 
Table 7.2. Monetary impact values by impact indicator for Member States at 4 °C (Bn 19891). 
Sea Run-off Comfort Heating Agri-
Level Threshold2 and cooling cultural 
Rise degree days yields Total 
Belgium -2.1 -0.3 
Denmark -37.1 0.0 
France -78.2 1.7 
Germany -43.9 -3.7 
Greece -3.4 -0.6 
Ireland -13.0 0.0 
Italy -37.2 -5.4 
Luxembourg 0.0 0.0 
Netherlands -10.7 0.0 
Portugal -1.5 -1.5 
Spain -18.4 -5.4 
United Kingdom -26.6 0.0 4.0 
1.0 
6.0 
15.4 
-2.1 
0.0 
-2.9 
0.2 
1.4 
0.7 
2.8 
0.6 2.4 
1.1 
4.1 
11.0 
-0.5 
0.7 
0.6 
2.3 
2.9 
-0.1 
-0.4 
11.4 0.8 
1.1 
2.2 
3.0 
0.0 
0.5 
0.8 
0.0 
1.8 
0.1 
0.9 
1.1 4.8 
-33.9 
-67.6 
-18.2 
-6.6 
-11.8 
-44.1 
2.5 
-4.6 
-2.3 
-20.5 
-13.5 
Source: ERM, 1992 b. 
1 Billion of ECU, 1989 level. 
2 Indicator based on temperature, precipitation and sunshine, indicating the attractiveness for 
tourism. 
7.3. Adaptation activities 
Coastal Zones 
One of the key targets of the Fifth Action Programme of the ECs "Towards Sustainability" (CEC, 
1993) is the integrated management of coastal zones. By request of the Council of Ministers 
(Environment), in a Resolution adopted on 25 February 1992, the Commission is currently preparing 
a Communication on the integrated management of coastal zones, with a view to providing a 
coherent environmental framework for integrated and sustainable forms of development. The 
Communication will deal with the entire ambit of the coastal zones of the EC, including fore-shore, 
coastal waters and estuaries, and coastal land up to the limit of the marine or coastal influence. 
Research and development activities, e.g. Environment and Climate and "MAST" programmes (see 
Chapter 8) will provide a scientific basis for sound ecological management of these zones. In 
67 
appropriate cases, financial support could be provided from existing istruments where rules and 
criteria would authorise potential stakeholders to submit projects in line with the Communication. 
Foreseen for approval by the Commission in October 1995 is a Communication, which proposes a 
three years demonstration programme in order to investigate and demonstrate the conditions of 
coordination, horizontally between the multiple sectors of activity ( priciple of integration) and 
vertically between the levels of territorial competence (principle of subsidiarity). In effect it should 
show -on the coastal area example- how to better put in practice the driving pnnciples of the fifth 
Environment Action Programme. 
The stakeholders at the various levels(local, regional, national, european) would have perform the 
following tasks: 
Description 
- state of the environment 
- existing environmental measures 
- planned developments 
Analysis 
- causes of existing environment problems 
- potential impacts of planned developments 
- potential impacts of the evaluation of the global environment 
- identification of management options 
Concertation 
- setting up mechanisms of coordination or adjusting existing ones 
- evaluation of management options 
- agreeing on plans/programmes:strategies for sustainable development of coastal areas 
The Commission must ensure that the programme is set up, and that the results are discussed and 
disseminated in order to generate practical results on the way to achieve more quickly sustainable 
development in coastal areas. The programme should also identify needs for further action at 
European and other levels. 
Forests 
In June 1993, at the Helsinki Ministerial Conference on the protection of forests in Europe, the 
European Community signed the Resolution on strategies for a process of long term adaptation of 
forests in Europe to climate change. The European Community actively participates in the follow-up 
process of this conference and its resolutions. One of the objectives of the Resolution on climate 
change is to intensify European research and its international cooperation to improve the 
understanding of the linkages between climate change and forest ecosystems, including feedbacks 
from the ecosystem to the climate system. This should help to adjust European forest management 
systems in order to optimize the adaptation of forests to climate change. Another objective of the 
Resolution is the adaptation of existing forest monitoring schemes to assess alterations in forests that 
may be due to climate change. 
68 
8. FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 
8.1. Introduction 
As Party, listed in Annex II of the UN FCCC, the EC is obliged to communicate details of measures 
taken in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 3, 4 and 5. 
This chapter describes multilateral and bilateral cooperation between the European Community and 
developing countries and between the European Community and the countries with economies in 
transition. As a result of the Fifth Action Programme, progress has been made in integrating 
environmental requirements into cooperation with non Community countries, the so called "third 
countries". Environmental concerns are now reflected in most of the bilateral cooperation contracts 
established between the Community and its partner countries (CEC, 1994d). 
Most of the cooperation programmes and structures mentioned in this chapter have elements related 
to climate change, but are not specifically orientated towards it. Also, some of these programmes and 
structures are not only orientated towards developing countries or countries with economies in 
transition, but to all "third countries". 
The first Conference of the Parties to UN FCCC decided, amongst others, that the restructured 
Global Environment Facility (GEF) shall continue, on an interim basis, to be the international entity 
entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism of the Convention. It decided also to review 
the financial mechanism within four years and take approppriate measures, including a determination 
of the definitive status of the GEF in the context of the Convention (Decision 9/CP.l). 
The European Parliament has expressed itself, in the Resolution on the Global Environment Facility 
(EP Resolution, report A3-0378/93, 18.01.1994), to be in favour of the participation of the European 
Community in the GEF as this would facilitate its coordinating role in international environmental 
matters. The GEF has been requested on 15 June 1995 to invite the European Community as 
observers to attend future GEF Council meetings. Discussions are currently taking place with the 
European Parliament on how to allocate the foreseen 3 MECU for EC participation in the GEF. 
8.2.Cooperation with third countries 
Cooperation with third countries relating to climate change takes place in the framework of an 
initiative called SYNERGY since 1980 , the LIFE instrument since 1992 and the European Energy 
Charter since 1994. 
69 
SYNERGY 
The Commission has proposed on 23 May 1995 that the Council prolong and change the SYNERGY 
initiative in a programme( COM (95) 197 final). 
The objective of SYNERGY is to improve the long term world energy situation and hence, 
Community energy security, by helping other countries to make effective energy policy decisions. By 
encouraging energy planning, the rational use of energy and counselling and training, SYNERGY 
contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The funding of the initiative amounted to 8 
MECU per year. 
Energy cooperation under this programme is aimed at all third countries, and that is an advantage 
over the other EC cooperation programmes which all have a limited field of geographical application. 
Within the context of the SYNERGY initiative , the EC has contributed to regional planning studies 
by providing funds and experts. The impact of energy consumption on climate change is always 
taken into account in those studies. The EC has contributed to the following planning studies: 
energy plan for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; 
study on improving demand forecasting tools for Brazil; 
energy study for the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina; 
energy prospects for South Amenca: 
urban energy plan for Bydgoszcz and Gliwice, Poland: 
urban energy plan for Miskolc, Hungary; 
energy policy studies for China; 
energy planning in Maghreb countnes; 
urban energy plan for Ankara, Turkey; 
national energy plan for Cyprus. 
Concerning the rational use of energy, the mam means in the SYNERGY initiative are the transfer of 
technology and methods for rational use of energy, the evaluation of potential energy savings in 
several economic sectors or countries and the promotion of cogeneration in energy production. The 
EC has supported the following projects: 
optimization of energy use in buildings in Brazil; 
energy efficiency in road transport and industry in Brazil; 
methodology for cogeneration in Brazil; 
promotion of cogeneration in Chile, Peru and Mexico; 
energy efficiency in the grain processing industry in Argentina; 
seminar on energy audits in Tunisia; 
plan for rational use of energy in industry, transport and buildings in Morocco; 
promotion of rational use of energy in Israel; 
energy savings in buildings in Mediterranean countries; 
industrial energy efficiency audits in Hungary. 
Institution building is also an important element of the SYNERGY initiative. This is pursued by the 
establishment of energy centres in the countries of Eastern Europe and developing countries. The 
objectives of these centres are the stimulation of the market penetration of efficient energy 
70 
technologies, providing a permanent representation of European energy industnalists and experts, and 
assisting in setting up of effective energy infrastructure (CEC, 1994c). At present, energy centres 
have been set up in Slovenia, Hungary, Albania and Rumania. In the near future it is intended to 
establish energy centres in China, Indonesia, Senegal and Argentina. 
The Commission has proposed that the Programme is to last five years with a total budget of 50 
MECU. 
LIFE 
On 21 May 1992 the Community agreed upon the regulation on LIFE (Lending Instrument for the 
Environment)(1992/73/EEC). This provides for EC co-funding of demonstration actions, awareness 
raising campaigns and technical assistance projects in the area of environmental protection. The 
funding has been divided into several parts. The larger part is concerned with nature conservation, 
while the smaller part is concerned with environmental quality. 
European Energy Charter 
The European Energy Charter Treaty and the Energy Efficiency Protocol have been signed in Lisbon 
on 17 December 1994, after negotiations encompassing some 50 countries had been successfully 
concluded in June 1994. The European Energy Charter (COM (95) 440) is a political declaration 
committing its signatories to cooperate in trade, investment and other policies in all energy sectors. 
These efforts should lead to the creation of a true energy market throughout Europe. Environment 
protection and more efficient use of energy brought about by Treaties and Protocols in the frame of 
the charter will have a positive impact on limiting C02 and other greenhouse gas emissions in 
particular by encouraging market pnces, and hence more efficient energy usage. 
8.3.Cooperation with developing countries 
Cooperation with developing countnes takes place in the framework of general and more specific 
cooperation programmes. The specific programmes include research cooperation, energy and forestry 
related issues. 
Research cooperation 
Since 1982, the European Community has financed scientific cooperation with developing countries. 
A specific programme in this field which was targeted towards research cooperation with developing 
countnes, was Life Sciences and Technologies for Developing Countnes. This programme ran dunng 
the Third Framework Programme of Research and Development (1990-1994). 
The Fourth Framework Programme of Research and Development (1994-1998) covers activities 
specifically aiming at the promotion of international scientific cooperation. This area has a budget of 
540 MECU (i.e. approximately 5% of the total budget of the fourth framework programme) The 
largest part of the budget will be used for cooperation with the countries of Eastern and Central 
Europe, the independent states of former Soviet Union and developing countries. 
71 
The forthcoming research cooperation with developing countnes covers topics that are seen to be 
common to all developing countries and of prime importance to their economic and social 
development. The new programme opens new areas: underlines the concept of sustainable 
development and strengthens interdisciplinary approaches. The programme will target three sectors: 
sustainable management of renewable natural resources; 
improvement of agncultural production and agro-industnal production; 
health research for development. 
Areas of relevance to processes of global environmental change cover research on the use and 
management of ecosystems (e.g. forests, coastal zones, wetlands, drylands, oceans, mountain areas 
and highlands). Human driving forces behind changes in the use and management of ecosystems will 
also be covered, for instance the impact of vanous policies on land-use systems. While agnculture 
and agro-industrial production are sectors of great importance for developing countries, there is a 
need for research on sustainable production systems taking account of socio-economic as well as 
environmental considerations. An example is the improvement of systems for processing and use of 
crop and animal production. Additional scientific areas of mutual interest may also be covered. 
Cooperation with developing countries will be implemented in close liaison with other forms for 
cooperation such as the Lomé Convention, the new Mediterranean policy and the regulation on 
financial and technical assistance to. and economic cooperation with, the developing countnes in 
Asia and Latin America. 
Cooperation on energy related issues 
Energy projects in Asian and Latin American countnes are funded within the frame of economic 
cooperation from Budget Line B7-3013. Since, 1990 eight projects have been set up within this 
budget line which are of direct relevance to the climate change issue. These projects involved the 
expenditure of around 1'5 MECU. 
Since 1992, no. specific budget line covers energy projects, which are funded under Economic 
cooperation or Financial and technical cooperation. For example, mid 1995 there are 16 energy 
projects on-going in Asia, for a total commitment of 56 MECU. 
Cooperation on forestry related issues 
With respect to forestry, worth mentioning is the establishment of the Community budget line 
"Tropical forest activities" (Budget Line B7-5041). This budget line is intended to finance projects 
concerned with the conservation and sustainable management of tropical and subtropical forests. The 
budget line was established in 1990 and resulted in an allocation of 2 MECU to tropical forest 
projects in 1991. This amount was increased to 50 MECU in the following years. Approximately one 
third of the budget line is devoted to projects in the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries and 
two-thirds to projects in Asia and Latin America. A proposal for a regulation to establish the legal 
basis of the budget line has been presented to the Council. 
72 
Some of the major actions financed to date or presently under preparation under the tropical forests 
budget line include: 
The Pilot programme for the Conservation of Brazilian Tropical Forests: an initial EC contribution of 
11.9 MECU was made to the Rain Forest Trust Fund in 1992, and cofinanced actions began in 1993 
with a contribution of 4.8 MECU to the directed research component. Cofinancing of 4 MECU for 
the demonstration projects component, which will support local community and NGO activities for 
forest conservation and sustainable development, and a further 5MECU for extractive reserves aimed 
at assisting rubber tapers and other traditional forest users was committed in 1994. In 1995, a 16.7 
MECU commitment for the Natural Resources Policy project has been decided. 
In Colombia, funding has already provided for an Amazon Fund for sustainable development, geared 
to channelling resources to small-scale local initiatives aimed at sustainable use of forest resources. 
Funding is also provided for the implementation of the Alto Orinoco biosphere reserve in Venezuela, 
and is under consideration for the manus Biosphere reserve in Peru. In 1995 further new projects 
may be undertaken in Paraguay and Mexico. 
The Community provides support to the Amazon pact countries through their Pro Tempore 
Secretariat in Lima. A programme of institutional strengthening for the pact, together with regional 
projects for the planning and management of protected areas across the region, and for the 
consolidation of indigenous areas, have already been initiated. Another important regional project 
which seeks to address the fundamental causes of deforestation concerns the control of the expansion 
of the agricultural frontier in Central America. 
A number of initiatives have been undertaken in the context of the Community's forest sector support 
programme to Indonesia, and a sustainable forest management project for Berau in East Kalimantan 
was committed in 1994. A Geographical Information Systems project has been agreed with 
Malaysia, and a national parks programme with the Philippines. 
In one country, in particular, Indonesia, actions, in favour of tropical forests have indeed 
represented, for the years 1993-1995 the backbone of the EC development cooperation with a total of 
4 major projects presently in place and further 2 planned (100 MECU). Other countries targeted for 
EC assistance in the forestry sector (under budget line B7-3000) include, amongst other, Bangladesh, 
India, Bhutan, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. 
Important projects undertaken in ACP countries include a regional Central African forest monitoring 
project (3.5MECU), Korup national park in Cameroun (7.3 MECU) and substantial programmes in 
Nigena, Tanzania, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Papua New Guinea. 
Numerous smaller-scale projects implemented by European, international or local NGOs and 
community groups and indigenous peoples' organisations have received support. Close attention has 
been paid to the human aspects of forest conservation, through to participatory sustainable 
development activities at local level. Biosphere reserves have provided a useful framework for the 
73 
combination of sustainable resource use with forest conservation, and there are around 10 reserves 
which have benefited or for which assistance is under consideration. 
A number of non-country specific or horizontal actions have been financed or are under 
consideration, notably in the fields of promoting the establishment of timber certification systems, 
sustainable paper production, forest monitoring, tropical forests and biodiversity information 
resources, and partnership arrangements between the federation of European parks and protected 
areas in Latin America and Asia. 
Other bilateral cooperation 
African. Caribbean and Pacific countnes (ACP) 
The most comprehensive of all the Community's regional agreements with developing countries are 
those with the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, the so-called Lomé Conventions. The 
fourth convention was signed in Lomé on 15 December 1989 (Lomé IV) and will be into force from 
1990 to 1995. The main objective of the convention is cooperation between ACP and EC countnes 
in order to promote and expedite the economic, cultural and social development of the ACP States 
and to consolidate and diversify their relations in a spirit of solidarity and mutual interest (Article I 
of the Convention). 
Under Lomé IV, environment is one of the main areas of cooperation. Within the framework of 
efforts to protect the environment and restore natural balances, cooperation aims to promote specific 
operations concerning the conservation of natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, the 
protection of ecosystems and the control of drought, desertification and deforestation. Other 
operations on specific themes are also being undertaken, notably locust control, the protection and 
utilization of water resources, the preservation of tropical forests and biological diversity, the 
promotion of a better balance between urban and rural areas, and the urban environment (Article 14 
of the Convention). 
Another main area of cooperation is energy development. The ACP States and the Community have 
agreed to cooperate in view of the senousness of the energy situation in the majority of ACP States, 
owing partly to the crisis caused in many countries by dependence on imported petroleum products 
and the increasing scarcity of fuelwood, and in view of the effects the use of fossil fuels have on the 
climate (Article 105 of the Convention). In ACP-EC, cooperation particular emphasis shall be placed 
on energy programming, operations for saving and making efficient use of energy, reconnaissance of 
energy potential and the economically and technically appropriate promotion of new and renewable 
sources of energy. 
Asian and Latin-American developing countries (ALA) 
Since 1976, the Community has been pursuing a policy of financial, technical and, more recently, 
also economic cooperation with the Asian and Latin American developing countries (ALA). Under 
74 
the new guidelines for Community cooperation with Asian and Latin American (ALA) countries 
(Regulation 443/92), protection of the environment and natural resources, and sustainable 
development, are long-term pnonties. 10 % of the total budget of 2,750 MECU for the period 1991-
1995, has been set aside for projects specifically aimed at protecting the environment, in particular 
tropical forests (Article 5 of the Regulation). 
Environmental Impact Assessment have been fully integrated in the activities of the EC operations 
with developing countries. 
The overall volume of the financial resources committed to sustainable development cooperation is 
increasing since 1990, reaching 770 MECU in 1993, which were provided for projects in ALA, 
ACP and the Mediterranean countnes in areas relevant to the implementation of Agenda 21 and other 
Rio Conference agreements, for example energy, biodiversity, forests, rural environment and 
desertification, water and urban environment. 
While the bulk of this expenditure is channelled through bilateral (or regional) programmes, there are 
also two budget lines specifically devoted to environment in developing countries and to tropical 
forest. 
The first (B7-5040) targeted at the environment in developing countries (13.2 MECU in 1995) is 
being used for small scale concrete activities related to the management of natural and urban 
environment including airpollution. A significant proportion of the budget line is devoted to assist 
developing countries to enhance their institutional capacity to deal with environmental issues, training 
in environmental management and establishment of local sustainable development plans and 
strategies with strong local community participation are some of its items. 
The second budget line (B7-5041) concerns the protection of forests on which reference has been 
made in previous chapters. 
8.4. Cooperation with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe 
and the former Soviet Union 
The cooperation with the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) and the former Soviet 
Union is mainly based on the PHARE (Poland and Hungary Assistance to the Restructuring of the 
Economy) and the TACIS (Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States) 
programmes. The PHARE programme was established in 1989 and its main objective was to provide 
direct assistance to Poland and Hungary. Since then, the programme has been expanded to other 
countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The TACIS programme, oriented on the Commonwealth of 
Independent States (CIS), was formally established by a regulation adopted by the Council of 
Ministers in July 1991 (EEC/Euratom, no. 2157/91). A new and revised regulation was passed in 
1993 (EEC/Euratom, no. 2053/93). Close links are being maintained between the PHARE and the 
TACIS programme. 
75 
PHARE 
The PHARE programme is an EC initiative which supports the political and economic development 
of the CEECs. PHARE provides grant finance to support the process of economic transformation and 
to strengthen newly created democratic societies. PHARE also provides grant finance to help 
countries with Europe Agreements to integrate with the EC. Within PHARE, close cooperation exists 
with the partner countries on how funds are to be spent, within a framework agreed by the EC. 
Initial PHARE support in the environment area covered urgent actions such as the supply of 
equipment to monitor air and water pollution, studies on specific problems and help in establishing 
standards and legislation. Later, the focus was switched to develop a more strategic approach, 
including the development of policies and programmes for specific sectors such as waste treatment. 
The main priorities for PHARE funding are common to all countries, although every country is at a 
different stage of transformation. The key areas include restructuring of state enterprises including 
agriculture, private sector development, reform of institutions and public administration, reform of 
social services, employment, education and health, development of energy, transport and 
telecommunications infrastructure, and environment and nuclear safety. At the end of its first five 
years of operation in 1994, the European Community, through the PHARE programme, made 
available 4,284 MECU to 11 partner countnes (CEC, 1994b). 
Of relevance to the climate change issue are particularly the activities in the key areas "environment 
and nuclear safety" and "development of energy". Other Community programmes are complementing 
the assistance in the energy sector, such as THERMIE (Section 4.3) and SYNERGY (Section 8.2). 
For all the CEECs and the EC, the European Energy Charter reflects common interests in the energy 
sector. 
The support in the area of environment is being provided either in the form of yearly National or 
Regional Environmental Sector Programmes or through environmental components in the General 
Technical Assistance Facilities. 
In 1991, technical assistance programmes in the energy sector started in Poland, the Czech and 
Slovak Federative Republic, Hungary and the Baltic States. In 1992 and 1993, PHARE extended its 
activities in the energy sector to the other partner countries and to "multi-country" activities. The aim 
of the multi-country energy programme is to facilitate cooperation between all the PHARE partner 
countnes. These regional projects cover the following areas: 
interconnection of energy networks; 
twinning and training programmes; 
energy and environment. 
Regarding "energy and environment", an important programme is cunently being prepared, namely 
the development of a coordinated strategy in the field of clean and rational use of coal in central and 
eastern Europe (CEC, 1994b). 
76 
TACIS 
The overall aim of the TACIS programme is to contnbute to the transition towards a market 
economy of the independent states of the former Soviet Union. By the end of 1994, TACIS included 
13 partner countries: Armenia, Azerbijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, 
Mongolia, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine en Uzbekistan. The TACIS 
programme provides support in the form of grant finance to foster the exchange of knowledge and 
expertise through partnerships, links and networks at all levels of society'. TACIS started in 1991 
with an annual budget of 400 MECU, which rose to 510 MECU in 1994 (CEC, 1994a). 
The European Community and its partner countries work closely together to assess reform objectives 
and the needs for TACIS support based on the economic situation and progress of reform. The major 
focal areas currently supported by TACIS are: 
human resources development; 
enterprise restructuring and development; 
infrastructures; 
energy, including nuclear safety; 
food production, processing and distribution. 
Although the first TACIS Regulation did not mention the environment as a focal area, environmental 
concerns have played a major role in all TACIS activities from the programme's inception. The 
Commission has chosen to integrate the environment in all sectors, rather than focusing on projects 
which are purely "environmental". Environmental impact assessment and auditing was an integral 
part or part of the feasibility study of all larger projects. However, the new TACIS Regulation (1993-
1995) includes a specific reference to the environment. Article 4, paragraph 3 of the Regulation 
states that "due regard shall be taken of environmental considerations when designing and 
implementing programmes". 
In the beginning of 1995, the European Community has reinforced its commitment to the 
environment in the former Soviet Union, through the Environmental Support Facility project. The 
projects' main purpose is to provide a framework for environmentally sound economic growth in the 
region and to help restore areas which have suffered from senous environmental damage in the past. 
It will help industry, governments and non-governmental organisations to plan and implement 
environmental projects. 
Energy is specified as one of the prionty sectors of the TACIS programme. Important to note is that 
each project in the energy sector contains an energy saving component. Advice is also offered to 
assess the potential of renewable resources, mainly hydropower but also solar, wind and geothermal 
power. 
The TACIS programme has inter alia financed a number of energy centres which were established 
under the THERMIE programme (CEC, 1994a). These energy centres develop energy saving 
strategies, promote commercial cooperation and establish dialogues between international energy 
77 
experts. Also a number of energy audits are carried out at industrial plants as a first step in 
demonstrating energy saving technologies. This technical assistance is aimed at reducing the energy 
intensity of the industrial and commercial sectors and is provided directly to specific energy-intensive 
enterprises through demonstration projects. Recent actions include energy audits in the aluminium, 
steel, cement and paper industries (CEC, 1994d). In the following years TACIS will provide energy 
saving advice to the existing institutions involved in energy distribution. 
8.5.Summary 
Table 8.1 gives an overview of budgets which have been spent on or reserved for programmes in the 
field of international cooperation. However, it should be emphasized that international cooperation 
programmes usually encompass a wide range of activities. It is difficult to isolate the environmental 
or energy component of the various integrated development projects. The table should be read in that 
context. Climate change related projects only cover a minor part of the total budgets. 
Table 8.1 Summary of expenditures on EC cooperation programmes with third countries, 
especially developing countries and countries with economies in transition. 
Cooperation programme Time period Total budget (MECU) 
All third countries: 
SYNERGY 1990-1994 
LIFE 1991-1995 400 
Developing countries: 
Research cooperation 1990-1994 
Energy cooperation (B7-3013) 1990-1994 
Forestry cooperation (B7-5041) 1990-1994 
ACP-countries 1990-1995 
ALA-countries 1991-1995 2,750 
Countries with economies in transition: 
PHARE 1990-1994 4,284 
TACIS 1991-1994 1,870 
78 
9. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 
9.1. Introduction 
Pursuant to Articles 4.1 (g), 5 and 12.1 (b) of the Convention, this chapter gives 
information about research efforts on physical and human aspects of global climate 
change, with a view to supporting the process of policy-making. These research efforts 
are described in the light of the Second, Third and Fourth Community Framework 
Programme of Research and Development (Section 9.2 to 9.4). Within these framework 
programmes, the specific research programmes on environment, energy and marine 
science are of particular importance to climate change (another action about RDT 
cooperation with third countries, also important for the Climate Change and Developing 
Countnes issue, is presented in section 8.3). 
The framework programmes have given emphasis to the integration of environmental 
concerns into the EC's activities over time. Protection of the environment and 
improvement of the quality of life were already important objectives of the third 
framework programme. These objectives have been considerably reinforced in the fourth 
framework programme, both through its overall commitment to promote sustainable 
development, and through the substantial increase in financial resources allocated to 
environment (CEC, 1994d). 
9.2. Second Framework Programme of Research 
and Development 
During the Second Framework Programme of Research and Development (1987-1991), 
research projects regarding climate change were included in the European Programme on 
Climatology and natural Hazards (EPOCH), the Science and Technology for 
Environmental Protection (STEP) programme and the Remote Sensing programme of the 
Joint Research Centre. 
From these three programmes, EPOCH had the strongest liaison with the climate change 
issue. The programme consisted of the following research areas: 
- past climates and climate change; 
- climate processes and models; 
- climatic impacts and climate-related hazards; 
- seismic hazard. 
79 
The research activities on past climates and climate change focused on the functioning of 
the climate system (atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, cryosphere) apart from changes 
induced by human activities. The general goal of the research on climate processes and 
models was to understand the mechanisms ruling the various components of the climate 
system, and their interactions, in order to improve the physical formulation and the 
parametrization of climate models, and hence the ability to predict climate change. 
The research on climatic impacts and climate-related hazards aimed to reach insight in 
the effects of climate change upon various sectors of the European environment, such as 
agriculture. Finally, the research on seismic hazard was oriented on developing and 
improving of the means for predicting, preventing and mitigating the seismic risk in 
Europe. 
EPOCH also covered a large part of the research subjects foreseen in the International 
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World Climate Research Programme 
(WCRP) and the World Climate Impact Programme (WCIP). 
9.3. Third Framework Programme of Research 
and Development 
The Third Framework Programme of Research and Development (1990-1994) is 
organised around 15 specific programmes. Three of these programmes are relevant with 
regard to climate change, namely environment, energy technology and marine science 
and technology. 
Environment 
The emphasis on environmental research has increased in the third framework 
programme: 261 MECU have been devoted to the Environment programme. 
The Joint Research Centre (JRC) contributed through its own programme 257 MECU to 
the Environment programme. 
In this programme, attention was paid for the first time to socio-economic environmental 
research. The Environment programme included four research areas: 
- participation in global change programmes; 
- environmental technologies and engineering; 
- research on economic and social aspects of environmental issues, and 
- technological and natural risks. 
A significant proportion of the Environment programme is dedicated to research with 
direct relevance to global climate change. The part of the programme concerning 
climatology and natural hazards consists of the following research themes: 
80 
- natural climate change, 
- anthropogenic climate change; 
- climate change impacts; 
- desertification in the Mediterranean area; 
- natural risks. 
The research in the area of natural climate change focused mainly with the reconstruction 
of past climates and past environmental conditions. The two main purposes of the 
research were to gain more insight into the global climate system by analysing and 
modelling past climates and climate change, and to help validate and improve climate 
models by the provision of high quality reconstructions for reference and testing. 
The main issues within the theme of anthropogenic climate change were the 
understanding of the present climate and the prediction of climate change. The theme 
mainly focused on the development and application of complete climate models to 
predict future climate. 
The research on climate change impacts focused on prediction and quantification of the 
effects of climate change, including primary physical effects as well as secondary effects 
on important socio-economic sectors. The main research themes were centred around the 
consequences of sea level change, and climatic impacts on water resources, forests and 
agriculture in Europe. 
Part of the Environment programme was for example the ECOCRAFT project which 
originally started in 1991 under the EPOCH programme. The acronym ECOCRAFT is 
based on "European Collaboration on C02 Responses Applied to Forests and Trees". The 
project was concerned with the impacts of rising carbon dioxide and temperature on the 
growth processes of trees, the use of models to upscale the responses of the processes to 
the scale of forests over tens of years and the use of flux measurements to test the 
models, as well as to measure directly the sequestration of carbon by European forests. 
The research on desertification in the Mediterranean area was aimed at a thorough 
understanding of the desertification phenomenon, its genesis and evolution, and to 
provide guidelines for management of desertification prone-areas as well as for protecting 
and rehabilitating such areas. 
The research on natural risks was divided into at one hand meteorological and telluric 
research and at the other hand research on wildfires. Meteorological and telluric research 
was orientated towards the physical causes, frequency, severity and means of prediction 
and hazard reduction of natural disasters, such as storms, floods, landslides, earthquakes 
and volcanic eruptions. A major aim was to assess the European vulnerability to these 
natural hazards and to improve the scientific basis for disaster reduction. Research on 
wildfires was aimed at understanding the factors, natural and human, favounng or 
hindering the occurrence of wildfires, in order to develop suitable means for forecasting, 
prevention and risk management. 
In order to promote and facilitate coordinated research and to utilise this research for the 
various policies of the European Community, the Commission has established the 
European Network for Research in Global CHange (ENRICH). ENRICH's major role is 
to support policy objectives by acting as a clearinghouse for the exchange of information 
and by promoting cooperation in research and capacity building. In addition to promoting 
collaboration in Western Europe, ENRICH also helps to encourage the endogenous 
research capabilities in developing countries mainly, but not exclusively, in Africa and 
the Mediterranean Basin, and to support relevant research in the CEECs and the former 
Soviet Union. An ENRICH Council, Office, Liaison Offices and an Interservice Group 
have been set up to carry out the functions of the network. 
Energy technology 
Two successive programmes regarding new energy technologies, JOULE I (1989-1992) 
and JOULE II (1990-1994), have been established by the Community. Both programmes 
addressed the development of clean and efficient energy technologies in the three 
following areas: rational use of energy (in industry, transport and building), advanced 
technologies for fossil fuels and renewable energies. An additional activity relative to the 
elaboration of energy-environment models and analysis of RTD strategies was also part 
of these programmes; such an activity has provided background information for the 
Community C02 strategy through a major study called "C02-Crash programme", 
addressing the cost-effectiveness of the different options and the economic impacts of the 
taxation. In general terms, the environment dimension which was already an integral part 
of JOULE I has been strengthened in JOULE II. Furthermore, an accompanying action 
has' been undertaken consisting of associating Eastern countries teams within some 
research projects of JOULE II. The budget for both programmes was respectively 122 
MECU and 258 MECU. 
SESAME is a documentary or full text data base containing information on more than 
6,000 Community energy projects and 7,000 energy projects administered by the Member 
States and Norway. The SESAME data base contains administrative and technical 
information on RTD projects in the following sectors: 
- energy saving in buildings, industry, transport and the energy industry; 
- solid fuels; 
- biomass and energy from waste; 
- geothermal energy; 
- small hydroelectricity; 
- solar energy (photovoltaics and thermal); 
82 
- wind energy; 
- hydrocarbon technology (oil and gas). 
Marine sciences and technology 
The European Community's Marine Science and Technology programmes (MAST) aim 
to introduce the necessary Community dimension to various on-going research activities 
of the Member States. MAST intends to contribute to establishing a scientific and 
technological basis for the exploration, exploitation, management and protection of 
Europe's coastal waters and the seas surrounding the EC's Member States and thereby 
achieve a better balance in the marine science potential of the various areas of the EC. 
MAST II (1991-1994) has superseded the first MAST pilot programme (1989-1992). 
MAST IPs geographical scope has expanded and also included the North Atlantic Ocean 
and the subpolar Arctic seas. The budget of MAST II amounted to approximately 100 
MECU, aimed at supporting collaborative research projects and improving marine 
research in Europe. The fundamental aim of MAST II is to contribute to knowledge of 
the marine environment and its variability, in order to improve its management and 
protection and to predict its change. 
The MAST II programme was divided into 5 areas: 
- marine sciences; 
- coastal zone science and engineering; 
- marine technology; 
- supporting initiatives; 
- large scale targeted projects. 
9.4. Fourth Framework Programme of Research 
and Development 
The Fourth Framework Programme of Research and Development (1994-1998) is 
organised around nineteen specific programmes. Three of these programmes are of direct 
relevance with regard to climate change, namely environment and climate, clean and 
efficient energy technologies, marine science and technology. The specific programmes 
orr agriculture and fishenes, transport, the Joint Research Centre and cooperation with 
third countries and international organisations are more indirect related to climate change. 
Environment and climate 
.The fourth framework programme includes a specific programme of research and 
technological development, including demonstration, in the field of environment and 
climate (1994-1998). For this programme an amount of 532 MECU has been reserved. 
The programme covers four themes: 
83 
- the natural environment, environmental quality and global change; 
- environmental technologies; 
- space techniques applied to environmental monitoring and research; 
and 
- human dimensions of environmental change. 
A first objective of the programme on environment and climate is to understand the basic 
processes underlying environmental change, in particular those of the climate system, 
including the atmosphere, the oceans, the land surfaces, the continental ice masses and 
the biosphere. Detailed analysis of human and social behaviour and of the patterns of 
economic development responsible for adverse effects on the environment will be carried 
out in parallel with the study of natural processes. 
A second objective is to improve assessment of the consequences of climate and other 
environmental change. Consequences for the natural environment and for society will be 
considered, including ecosystems, societal and economic activities, energy demand and 
consumption, and the use and management of natural resources, especially water, 
agriculture, forestry and coastal resources. 
A third objective is to contribute to the technological development necessary for 
environmental observation, monitoring and research, including methodologies and 
technologies for the monitoring, warning and management of natural hazards. Particular 
attention will-be paid in this respect to applied space technologies. 
JRC will also contribute through its own programme of direct activities, to the attainment 
of the Community RTD objectives in the areas covered by the programme on 
Environment and climate. In addition, the JRC will make a significant contribution to the 
implementation of the Centre for Earth Observation (CEO). 
The EC is now initiating the implementation of ENRICH in the context of the Fourth 
Framework programme. ENRICH will provide a basic mechanism for facilitating the 
coordination of global change research in the EC's programmes, notably those on 
Environment and climate research, Marine Sciences and Technologies and the Specific 
Programme on Cooperation with Third Countries and International Organisations. On the 
international scene, ENRICH would aim to collaborate with the various international 
entities involved in global change research. The international research effort in this field 
requires, in turn, harmonised commitments of financial resources. 
Clean and efficient energy technologies 
A specific programme on non-nuclear energies will be continued under the Fourth 
Framework Programme. This programme, called "Clean and Efficient Energy 
84 
Technologies" (CEET), merges for the first time both the R&D and the Demonstration 
(for this reason it is also called JOULE-THERMIE by reference to the previous 
programmes). The motivation of the RTD strategy supporting the new programme is to 
ensure the energy security, considered in the broadest sense i.e. ensuring reliable energy 
services at affordable cost and conditions. The main driving force for technological 
change are the environmental effects due to production and use of energy (in particular 
the C02 issue). Furthermore, the RTD policy must integrate regional dimensions and 
must build on concertion with other Community policies, including international 
cooperation. 
The budget of the CEET programme is 967 MECU for the period 1994-1998. The main 
component of the programme is technological development in the same areas mentioned 
for JOULE and THERMIE; R&D will give more emphasis to the introduction of 
renewable energy (including third countries), whereas demonstration activities will 
support more substantially rational use of energy and fossil fuel technologies. A wide 
range of activities for the RTD strategy definition will be undertaken: global analysis, 
socio-economic research, energy, environment and economy modelling; these activities 
will be focused in particular on the Climate Change issue and its relationship with 
technological change and sustainable development. Exchange of information with third 
countries and dissemination of tools and results will be part of this activity. 
Marine science and technology 
The MAST III programme (1994-1998) extends, develops and refocuses the activities 
carried out under the first two MAST programmes i.e. the pilot phase of 1989-1992 and 
the MAST II programme 1990-1994. For the period considered, MAST III is a step in a 
longer term strategy which will enable Europe to make a full contribution to the 
knowledge and management of the oceans. Its general objective is to foster the scientific 
knowledge and technological development necessary to understand how marine systems 
function at basin scales, in order to prepare for sustainable use of the oceans consistent 
with the preservation of marine environmental quality, and to determine their role in 
global change. 
The programme comprises four areas of activity: 
- marine science; 
- strategic marine research; 
- marine technology; 
- supporting initiatives. 
The research activities may, where appropriate, liaise with other international 
programmes such as IGBP, WCRP and HDP, as well as with certain aspects of the 
development of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). 
85 
ETERNE 
The EC launched in 1991, together with the US Department of Energy, a joint research 
project to assess the external costs of fuel cycles. On the European side the project is co-
funded by the JOULE programme. It is known as the Externe project. In the first phase, 
the teams jointly developed the conceptional approach and the methodology and shared 
scientific information for its application to a number of fuel cycles. 
The EC further co-financed the second phase of the project under JOULE-II. It was 
started in 1993 and has been completed in 1995. The main objectives were to apply the 
methodology to a wide range of different fossil, nuclear and renewable fuel cycles for 
power generation and energy conservation options. In addition, the general methodology 
and accounting framework were extended to address the evaluation of externalities 
associated with the use of energy in the transport and domestic sectors. 
The third phase of the project has been undertaken within the ECs Fourth Framework 
Programme and will concentrate on the dissemination of the results and the application 
of the accounting framework in support of policy issues and decision making. 
9.5. Summary 
Table 9.1 gives an overview of budgets which have been spent on or are reserved for 
research programmes in the areas of climate change, non-nuclear energy and marine 
sciences. The table shows that research budgets in all three areas have been largely 
increased during the last years. The expenditures on research projects primarily oriented 
towards climate change are included in the total budgets in Table 9.1; no data are 
available to specify these expenditures separately. 
86 
Table 9.1. Summary of expenditures on EC research programmes relevant to the 
climate change issue. 
Research programme Time period Total budget 
(MECU) 
Environment and Climate : 
STEP 1989-1992 75 
EPOCH 1989-1992 40 
Environment 1991-1994 261 
Environment and climate 1994-1998 532 
Joint Research Center: 1991-1994 150 
1994-1998 320 
Non-nuclear energy: 
JOULE I 1989-1992 122 
JOULE II 1990-1994 258 
CEET 1994-1998 967 
Marine sciences: 
MAST I 1989-1992 50 
MAST II 1991-1994 118 
MAST III 1994-1998 228 
87 
10. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS 
10.1. Introduction 
The success of policies and measures addressing the problem of climate change will 
depend to a large extent on the decisions and actions of the general public. Education, 
training and increasing public awareness through information campaigns are important 
tools to enable a change of consumer attitudes and choices. The fifth Action Programme 
of the EC "Towards Sustainability" emphasizes that it is essential to provide adequate 
information to the general public on the relation between the activities of individuals and 
environmental pollution (by e.g. awareness campaigns), and to offer alternatives to the 
general public to reduce environmental pollution. Also, the active involvement of and 
participation of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), trade unions and professional 
associations is highly valued in the fifth Action Programme. 
On the basis of existing Community legislation on freedom of access to information on 
the environment (90/313/EEC), local and regional authorities can facilitate greater public 
involvement in environmental protection. The objective of this directive is to ensure 
freedom of access to, and dissemination of, information on the environment held by 
public authorities and to set out the basic terms and conditions on which such 
information should be made available (Article 1 of the directive). 
This chapter respectively deals with information, education and training programmes 
(Section 10.2), dissemination of research results (Section 10.3) and research activities 
regarding education, training and public awareness (Section 10.4). 
10.2. Information, education and training programmes 
At the EC level, information, education and training programmes concerning climate 
change and energy use mainly take place within the scope of (sectoral) policy 
programmes, such as energy supply, transport, urban development and agriculture. 
Energy supply 
Information for the wider public is a key element of the SAVE, ALTENER and 
THERMIE/JOULE programmes. These programmes have been described extensively in 
Chapter 4. This section only describes the relevant parts about the provision of 
information. SAVE has set up an information exchange network on energy efficiency 
aimed at all the levels of the EC, the goal being that all EC citizens will ultimately be 
aware that energy efficiency not only provides financial benefits but brings benefits to 
88 
the environment as well. ALTENER has also established an information exchange 
network and has launched in 1994 a major information programme stressing the benefits 
of greater levels of renewable energy in the EC's energy mix and the resulting 
environmental benefits, especially in terms of C02 emission levels. THERMIE's 
dissemination actions include a network of some forty Organisations for the Promotion of 
Energy Technology (OPET) focusing on distributing and promoting innovative energy 
technologies across Europe, including Central and Eastern European countries and the 
former Soviet Union. 
An extensive part of the SYNERGY initiative is focusing on training activities (see also 
Section 8.2) relating to the climate change problem and emissions of greenhouse gases. 
The following activities may be mentioned in this respect: 
training courses in India; 
training courses in China, for example about clean coal combustion technology; 
seminar on energy and environment in Shanghai; 
courses about energy planning and savings in Latin America; 
training courses on energy saving in Estonia. 
Transport 
The European Community's evolving strategy for transport is most recently expounded in 
the White Paper on The Future Development of the Common Transport Policy: A Global 
Framework for Sustainable Mobility. The strategy includes the promotion of more 
environmentally rational use of the pnvate car, along with changes in driving rules and 
habits. 
Urban development 
The EC supports pan-European environmental campaigns of local authorities aiming at 
local sustainability, or significant local contribution to global sustainability, such as 
Sustainable Cities and Towns, the Car Free Cities Club and Cities for Climate Protection. 
The Sustainable Cities Project was launched by the Expert Group on the Urban 
Environment, to run from 1993 to 1995. The expert group was established by the 
European Commission in 1991 following the publication of the Green Paper on the 
Urban Environment. The principle aims of the Sustainable Cities Project are to contribute 
to the development of thinking about sustainability in European urban settings, to foster a 
wide exchange of experience, to disseminate best practice about sustainability at local 
level, and, in the longer term, to formulate recommendations to influence policy making 
at Community, Member State, regional and local level, as called for in the Council 
resolution of 1991 (Fudge & Mills, 1994). 
The planned outputs of the Sustainable Cities Project are a policy report, a good practice 
guide and a database of relevant practice. The exchange of information and experience is 
being further encouraged through the European Campaign for Sustainable Cities and 
89 
Towns launched in May 1994 during the First European Conference on Sustainable 
Cities and Towns held in Aalborg, Denmark. At this conference, the Campaign was 
joined by 80 European local authorities and 253 representatives of international 
organisations, national governments, scientific institutes, consultants and individuals who 
signed the Aalborg Charter. According to the Charter, the signatories take responsibility 
for the global climate. It is stated that the significant risks posed by global warming to 
the natural and built environments and to future human generations require a response 
sufficient to stabilize and then to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the 
atmosphere as soon as possible. Renewable energy sources are mentioned as the only 
sustainable alternatives for the present ones. 
A second European Conference on Sustainable Cities and Towns is planned for 1996 in 
Lisbon, Portugal. This conference will assess progress on sustainability, receive the 
second draft policy report from the expert group and ensure continuation of the 
Sustainable Cities and Towns Campaign (Fudge & Mills, 1994). 
In June 1992, the Environment Commissioner has proposed to establish a network of car 
free cities and to organize a conference about the topic. The main purpose of this 
proposal was to start a discussion about the daily traffic problems in cities, to set up a 
platform for the exchange of experiences and to find solutions for improvement of the 
urban environment. This proposal was adopted by the European Commission. Finally, the 
conference about car free cities was held on 24 and 25 March 1994 in Amsterdam. As a 
result of the conference a charter was drafted and signed by the representatives of 40 
European cities. According to the charter, one of the explicit objectives is to stimulate 
the efficient use of energy and to diminish emissions by traffic which contribute to ozone 
and greenhouse problems (Car Free Cities Club, 1994). It is considered necessary to push 
back the use of private cars and to stimulate the use of less harmful means of transport. 
In 1993, the Convention of European Municipal Leaders on Climate Change was 
organized by the European Secretariat of the International Council for Local 
Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), under the auspices of the Commission of the EC and 
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The outcome of the Convention 
was the launching of the Campaign European Cities for Climate Protection. The aim of 
the joint campaign on saving energy and reducing C02 emissions is to help nations 
implement the goals set at the Rio summit as fast as possible and to support 
municipalities in their efforts to fight the causes of climate change. 
ICLEI, co-sponsored by the European Commission, also organised the second Local 
Government Leaders' Summit on Climate Change held in Berlin back to back to the first 
Conference of the Parties to the UN FCCC. This summit on climate change served to 
exchange information on innovative local policies and practices and explored possible 
future strategies. The summit, attended by 159 municipal leaders, issued on 29 March 
90 
1995 a Communiqué, in which, amongst others, the local authorities are called upon to 
develop local action plans to reduce C02 emissions 20% by 2005. 
In the framework of the "Energy Management in Regions and Cities" initiative, the 
Commission encouraged the setting up of the ENERGY-CITES network which aims at 
the implementation of a sustainable use of energy in urban areas. Through the creation of 
Cities Energy Agencies it is hoped that the elected people and citizen will perceive more 
properly the challenge and the potential of good energy management. This should 
contribute to reduce consumption in cities and to promote local and new energies which 
should have impact on the urban and global environment but also on the life quality in 
urban areas. This approach will be strengthened within the SAVE-II programme. 
Agriculture 
Concerning agricultural soils, since 1992, efforts are undertaken to promote "integrated 
control" by in particular training activities to reach an equilibrium between input of 
nutrients and the absorption capacity of soils and plants. This will lead in the future to a 
reduction of N20 emissions from the application of fertilizers. 
10.3. Dissemination of research results 
Training and education are also important parts of the accompanying measures of the 
European Community research programmes. Activities with regard to the EPOCH, the 
Environment and the Environment and Climate programmes (see chapter 9) are pursued 
through: 
the European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards, through annual or 
biennial courses on selected relevant topics, to be held in cooperation with 
various European research institutions; 
sectoral grants for European graduates and post-graduates in fields relevant to 
climatology and natural hazards; 
the publication of a series of books and monographs dealing with important 
topics relevant to the research areas of the programme and meeting the needs of 
different kinds of concerned audiences. 
The European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards takes the form of courses 
dealing with current research issues in the fields of climate and natural hazards. The 
courses which are organized in cooperation with leading European institutions, are open 
to graduating or post-graduate students in appropriate fields of research. 
91 
Relevant courses in relation to climate change organized by the European School 
of Climatology and Natural Hazards: 
. Climatic change and impacts: A general introduction, 11-18 September 
1988; 
. Climate and global change, 4-12 Apnl 1990; 
. Forest fire risk and management, 27 May-4 June 1992; 
. Desertification in a European context. Physical and socio-economic aspects, 
6-13 October 1993; 
. Statistical analysis of climate variability, 30 October-6 November 1993; 
. Foreseen in 1995: Climate change impacts on agriculture, forest and water 
resources. 
10.4. Research activities regarding education, 
training and public awareness 
The Directorate General for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (DGXI) of 
the Commission of the European Communities commissioned a study to examine the 
scope for improved education, training and public awareness activities regarding climate 
change (CEC, 1992). An inventory of activities which are taking place in the individual 
Member States lead to the following conclusions: 
in their C02 reduction programmes, many EC countries are not placing 
sufficient emphasis on educational and promotional activities to support 
legislative measures; 
large differences exist in the standard of energy education between EC 
countries; 
in all EC countries, a need for energy training has been recognized within 
industry, commerce and educational establishments. 
The study showed that an integrated packet of government-run promotions of energy 
conservation, backed by and linked to financial incentives and legislation is most 
effective to address climate change. 
92 
LITERATURE 
Bengtsson, L. (1994). Climate of the 21st century. 1994. Agricultural and Forest 
Meteorology 72 (1994) 3-29. 
Car Free Cities Club (1994). Car Free Cities Charter. Brussels. 
Commission of the European Communities (1992). Policy Measures in the Field of 
Education, Training, Public Information and Public Relations to contribute to the 
limitation of C02 emissions. DG XI, Contract No B91/B - 3046/9493. Brussels, 
March 1992. 
Commission of the European Communities (1993). Towards Sustainability: A European 
Community programme of policy and action in relation to the environment and 
sustainable development, Brussels, 1 February 1993. 
Commission of the European Communities (1994a). What is TACIS? Partnerships and 
cooperation with the New Independent States. DG I, TACIS Information Office, 
Brussels, May 1994. 
Commission of the European Communities (1994b). What is PHARE? A European 
Union initiative for economic integration with central and eastern European 
countries. DG I, PHARE Information Office. Brussels, September 1994. 
Commission of the European Communities (1994c). Evaluation of progress on integration 
of the environment into other areas of Commission policy and action. Detailed note. 
Brussels, 20 October 1994, XVII/A/2/MD. 
Commission of the European Communities (1994d). Interim review of implementation of 
the European Community programme of policy and action in relation to the 
environment and sustainable development "Towards Sustainability". COM (94) 453 
final. Brussels, 30 November 1994. 
Cubasch, U., J. Waszkewitz, G.C. Hegerl, J.Perlwitz (1995). Regional climate changes as 
simulated in time-slice experiments. Max-Planck-Institut fur Météorologie. Hamburg. 
ERM (1992a). Development of a Framework for the Evaluation of Policy Options to deal 
with the Greenhouse Effect. Summary report: Assessment of strategic options. A 
report for the Commission of European Communities, Directorate General for 
Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection. Climate Research Unit and 
Environmental Resources Limited. 
ERM (1992b). Development of a Framework for the Evaluation of Policy Options to 
deal with the Greenhouse Effect. Economic valuation of impacts and adaptive 
measures in the European community. A report for the Commission of European 
Communities, Directorate General for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil 
Protection. Climate Research Unit and Environmental Resources Limited. 
93 
Fudge, C. and L. Mills (1994). European Sustainable Cities. First report EU Expert 
Group on the Urban Environment. Sustainable Cities Project. XI/822/94-EN. 
Brussels, October 1994. 
Harrison, P.A., and M.L. Parry (1993). The effect of climate change on agricultural and 
horticultural potential in Europe. Environmental Change Unit. University of Oxford. 
Paper presented at EC Symposium on Climate Change and Climate Change Impacts, 
Copenhagen, 6-10 September 1993. 
Houghton, J.T., B.A. Callander, S.K. Varney (eds.) (1992). Climate Change 1992 - The 
IPCC Supplementary Report on the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge 
University Press, Cambridge. 
IPCC (1994). Radiative forcing of climate change. The 1994 Report of the Scientific 
Assessment Working Group of IPCC. Summary for Policy Makers. 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 
Jones, M.B., T. Ashenden, A.J. Parsons, H. Payer, A. Raschi, J.H.M. Thornley (1993). 
The effects of rising C02 and changing climate on grassland communities in Europe. 
Paper presented at EC Symposium on Climate Change and Climate Change Impacts, 
Copenhagen, 6-10 September 1993. 
Thimbal, B. et al (1995). Sensitivity to prescribed changes in sea-surface temperature and 
sea-ice in doubled carbon dioxide experiments. Meteo-France, no. 42. 
Warrick, R.A., E.M. Barrow, T.M.L.Wigley (1990). The greenhouse effect and its 
implications for the European Community. Report for the Commission of the 
European Communities. Contract No: EV4C-0098-UK. Climatic Research Unit, 
University of East Anglia, Norwich. 
94 
ABBREVIATIONS 
ALTENER 
CAP 
CEECs 
CEET 
CEO 
CIS 
CORINAIR 
EAGFF 
EC 
ECOCRAFT 
ECU 
ENRICH 
EUROSTAT 
EPOCH 
FEC 
FNEC 
GCOS 
GDP 
GIC 
GOOS 
GTOS 
GVA 
HDP 
IGBP 
INC 
IPCC 
JOULE 
JRC 
OECD 
OPET 
PACE 
PERU 
PHARE Programme for the Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources 
Common Agricultural Policy 
Central and Eastern European Countries 
Programme on Clean and Efficient Energy Technologies 
Centre for Earth Observation 
Commonwealth of Independent States 
CORINE AIR emissions inventory 
European Agriculture Guidance and Guarantee Fund 
European Community 
Project on European Collaboration on C02 Responses Applied to 
Forests and Trees 
European Currency Unit 
European Network for Research In global Change 
Statistical Office of the European Communities 
European Programme On Climatology and natural Hazards 
Final Energy Consumption 
Final Non Energy Consumption 
Global Climate Observing System 
Gross Domestic Product 
Gross Inland Consumption 
Global Ocean Observing System 
Global Terrestrial Observing System 
Gross Value Added 
Human Dimension of global environmental change Programme 
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme 
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
Programme on Joint Opportunities for Unconventional or Longer-
term Energies 
Joint Research Centre 
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 
Network of Organisations for the Promotion of Energy 
Technologies 
Action programme for improving the efficiency of energy use 
Planning of Energy at Regional and Urban level 
Programme on Poland and Hungary Assistance to the 
Restructuring of the Economy 
95 
R&D 
RTD 
SAVE 
STEP 
SYNERGY 
TACIS 
THERMIE 
UN FCCC 
UNO 
WCIP 
WCRP Research and Development 
Research, Technological development and Demonstration 
Programme on Specific Actions for Vigorous Energy efficiency 
Programme on Science and Technology for Environmental 
Protection 
Programme for energy cooperation with all non-Community 
countries 
Programme on Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of 
Independent States 
Energy Technology Support Programme 
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
United Nations Organisations 
World Climate Impact Programme 
World Climate Research Programme 
Chemical formulae and references 
CO 
C02 
CH4 
NMVOC 
N20 
NO. Carbon Monoxide 
Carbon Dioxide 
Methane 
Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds 
Nitrous Oxide 
Nitrogen Oxides 
Gg 
toe Gigagram (1 Gg = 1 kilotonne) 
tonne of oil equivalent 
96 
ANNEX 1 
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INVENTORIES 
^-
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Austria - 1990 (Gg). 
AUSTRIA CO, CH4 N,0 NO. CO NMVOC 
1 All enetgy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
1 a2 Industry 
1 a3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 57100 
57100 
16500 
12300 
16200 
12100 
IE 
IE 
IE 
0 
2100 116 
24 
<1 
1 
15 
8 
IE 
IE 
IE 
92 
259 
230 
28 
228 1.4 
1 
<1 
1 
<1 
<1 
IE 
IE 
IE 
1 
20 216 
216 
12 
47 
145 
12 
IE 
IE 
IE 
0 1391 
1391 
6 
27 
582 
776 
IE 
IE 
IE 
0 
241 
60 
<1 269 
253 
<1 
24 
130 
99 
IE 
IE 
IE 
16 
130 
12 
26 
Total emissions 59200 603 222 1692 445 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 0" 
1200° 
4600* 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* CORINAIR figures used 
a) Reconciliation of CORINAIR and EUROSTAT transport emission estimates 
* Eurostat figures used 
98 
Sources: 
National Climate report of the Austrian Federal Government. In Compliance with the obligations 
under Art. 4.2 and Art. 12 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (Federal Law Gazette 
No. 414/1994). Vienna, 1994. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from the National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
99 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Belgium - 1990 (Gg). 
BELGIUM C02 CH4 N20 NOx CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 106400 71 # 8 # 330 # 1085 # 216 
la Fuel combustion 106400 25 8 330 1085 203 
lal Energy & transformation 33800 <1 2 56 2 <1 
la2 Industry 25500 5 3 67 110 6 
la3 Transport 20600 14 1 195 918 291 
la4 Commercial/institutional 26500 6 2 12 55 7 
la5 Residential IE IE IE IE IE IE 
la6 Agriculture/forestry IE IE IE IE IE IE 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 0 46 0 0 0 13 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 7200 14 5 5 108 54 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 2600 
2e Non-metallic minerals 4600 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 0 0 0 0 0 90 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 0 270 9 0 0 1 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 900 5 0 3 16 0 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 900 
Total emissions 114500 359 22 338 1219 361 
Marine bunkers 13300 
Aviation bunkers 2000 a) 
FNEC 10200 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
U = CORINAIR figures used 
a) Reconciliation of CORINAIR and EUROSTAT transport emission estimates 
* = Eurostat figures used 
100 
Sources: 
Belgian National Reduction Programme C02 emissions. Under the "Council Decision concerning a 
mechanism of monitoring of C02 emissions and other greenhouse gases in the Community. June 1994. 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
CORINAIR (indicated with *) 
C02 estimates are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. Figures for non-C02 gases are 
CORN AIR estimates. 
101 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Denmark - 1990 (Gg). 
DENMARK CO. ca N20 NO. CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 50900 
la Fuel combustion 50200 
lal Energy & transformation 25700 
la2 Industry 6000 
la3 Transport 11200 
la4 Commercial/institutional 1500 
la5 Residential 5000 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 800 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 700 
lbl Oil &gas 700 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 1200 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrouw metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 1200 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 0 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 0 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 0 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 23 
12 
2 
1 
3 
0 
6 
0 
# b 11 
8 
3 
0 
262 
137 
125 
122 
120 
2 2 
2 c 
1 
<1 
1 
0 
<1 
0 269 
269 
96 
17 
138 
1 
5 
13 770 
737 
39 
6 
547 
1 
139 
5 
33 129 
119 
2 
1 
106 
0 
10 
34 
26 
2 
7 
2 
Total emissions 52100 406 11 270 770 165 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 3000 
1900 
1000 * 0 
<1 0 
<1 5 
66 1 
17 <1 
3 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
# = CORINAIR figures used 
102 
Sources: 
Climate Protection in Denmark. Ministry of the Environment. Danish Environmental Protection 
Agency. Denmark, 1994. (National Communication under the UN FCCC). 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
CORINAIR (indicated with #) 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. Denmark included C02 emissions from oil/gas extraction (including flaring) in its estimate. Based on CORINAIR 
figures, these emissions have been subtracted. Denmark corrected its fuel combustion emissions for electricity 
import/export. This correction (6300 Gg of COj) has been ignored for reasons of comparison. 
b. Denmark included C02 emissions from oil/gas extraction (including flaring) in category 1A. Therefore, CORINAIR 
estimates have been used. 
c. Correction for electricity import/export has been ignored for reasons of comparison and consistency with other 
Member States. 
103 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Finland - 1990 (Gg). 
FINLAND C02 CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 
la Fuel combustion 
al Energy & transformation 
1 a2 Industry 
la3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 52600 
52600 
19500 
13700 
11500 
IE 
5800 
2100 
100 
1200 
100 
1100 
0 19 
19 
1 
2 
8 
IE 
6 
2 
94 
83 
11 
139 
105 
34 7 
7 
1 
1 
5 
IE 
12 291 
291 
64 
41 
160 
IE 
8 
18 484 
484 
9 
32 
368 
IE 
61 
14 156 
142 
0 
0 
79 
IE 
51 
12 
14 
15 
1 
12 
2 
48 
Total emissions 53900 252 22 295 487 219 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 2800 
1400a) 
6000* 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* Eurostat figures used 
U CORINAIR figures used 
0 Reconciliation of EUROSTAT and CORINAIR transport emission estimates 
104 
Sources: 
Finland's National Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Ministry of the Environment, January 1995. 
Eurostat 
- CORINAIR 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from the National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
105 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in France - 1990 (Gg). 
FRANCE co2 CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 All eneigy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
la2 Industry 
la3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3 a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 349800 
349700 
60800 
71100 
128100 
23700 
58200 
7800 
200 
16700 
600 
500 
2500 
12700 
500 
0 
8000 
1800a 
6200 495 
184 
5 
6 
23 
3 
126 
21 
311 
106 
204 
3 
1640 
1444 
159 
10 
19 
748 
716 
15 
18 12 
12 
2 
2 
4 
1 
3 
0 
103 
47 
55 
61 
61 1675 
1671 
163 
• 154 
1194 
18 
68 
74 
4 
4 
23 
3 
20 
4 
20 
20 10047 
10047 
29 
596 
7062 
18 
1895 
447 
668 
623 
43 
2 
223 
223 
9 1667 
1530 
6 
8 
1199 
1 
250 
67 
137 
137 
86 
3 
18 
27 
39 
640 
253 
72 
74 
240 
18 
10 
13 
5 
Total emissions 366500 2896 176 1722 10947 2424 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 8100 *b 
9000 * c 
39800 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
U = CORINAIR figures used 
106 
Sources: 
Program National de Prevention du changement de climat. Republique Française, Février, 1995. 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
CORINAIR (indicated with #) 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. It has been assumed that the estimate of 1800 Gg for Landfills applies to emissions from non-organic/non-recyclable 
material. 
b. The national report of France does not provide estimates of bunker emissions. 
c. Reconciliation of Eurostat and CORINAIR transport estimates 
107 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Germany - 1990 (Gg). 
GERMANY CO, CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
1 a2 Industry 
la3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3 a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 984000 
983000 
436000 
169000 
159000 
65000 a 
129000 
5000 
21000 
1000 
1000 
29000 
1000 
3000 
25000 
0 
IE 
IE 1767 
228 
12 
16 
69 
5 
91 
1 
3 
31 
1539 
317 
1222 
11 
6 
2043 
1420 
623 
2397 
2318 
79 
IE 33 
33 
15 
4 
9 
2 
3 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
100 
14 
86 
6 
80 
11 
69 2923 
2921 
672 
217 
1732 
35 
73 
2 
183 
7 
2 
2 
0 
21 
3 
13 
4 
IE IE 
IE 10104 
10078 
921 
899 
5990 
183 
1483 
35 
224 
234 
26 
26 
0 
664 
549 
113 
2 
IE 
IE 1679 
1474 
11 
15 
1252 
10 
96 
2 
60 
28 
205 
205 
0 
129 
9 
59 
61 
1170 
480 
110 
200 
380 
0 
IE 
IE 
Total emissions 1013000 6218 223 2944 10768 2978 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 8000 
11000 
68400 * NE 
NE 155 
50 37 
58 16 
9 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
108 
Sources: "^ 
Environmental Policy. Climate Protection in Germany. First report of the Federal Republic of 
Germany Pursuant to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. September 1994. 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
Estimates are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. Indicated as "Small consumers" in Germany's report. 
b. Germany indicated in its National Report that C02 emissions from waste incineration are included in energy related 
emissions. 
c. FNEC emissions were not included in Germany's National Report., Hence, Eurostat figures have been used. 
109 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Greece - 1990 (Gg). 
GREECE CO, CH< N20 NO, CO NMVOC 
a 
a 
* b 
* b 1 All energy 77400 
la Fuel combustion 77400 
lal Energy & transformation 43800 
la2 Industry 9700 
la3 Transport 15600 
la4 Commercial/institutional 8300 
la5 Residential IE 
la6 Agriculture/forestry IE 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 0 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 8100 # 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 5900 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 0 
3 a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 0 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 600 # 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 600 369 
6 
1 
<1 
5 
<1 
IE 
IE 
364 
363 
202 8 
8 
7 
<1 
1 
<1 
IE 
IE 
13 502 
502 
111 
3 
386 
1 
IE 
IE 
34 777 
777 
6 
<1 
770 
1 
IE 
IE 
25 
341 189 
185 
1 
<1 
184 
<1 
IE 
IE 
22 
82 
32 
Total emissions 86100 936 24 543 1143 325 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 8200 * 
2000 * c 
1800 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
# = CORINAIR figures used 
110 
Sources: 
Climate Change. The Greek Action Plan for the abatement of C02 and other greenhouse gas 
emissions. February 1995. 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
CORINAIR (indicated with #) 
C02 estimates are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. Figures for non-C02 gases are 
CORN AIR estimates. 
Footnotes: 
a. Taken from the C02 emission tables as an update to the 1992 national report 
b. C02 emission estimates provided in the Greek report are higher than Euro stat/CORIN AIR figures. The report 
explains that estimates for Energy & Transformation are higher due to a higher emission factor for lignite. However, 
it provides no explanation why estimates for the other combustion categories are higher. Therefore, Eurostat figures 
have been used. 
c. Reconciliation Eurostat and National Programme bunker estimates. 
Ill 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Ireland - 1990 (Gg). 
IRELAND CO, CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 AH energy 29100 
la Fuel combustion 29100 
lal Energy & transformation 10900 
la2 Industry 5400 
la3 Transport 4900 
la4 Commercial/institutional 1400 
la5 Residential 5800 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 700 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 0 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 1600 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 0 
3 a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 0 
4 a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 50 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 50 15 
5 
0 
<1 
1 
<1 
3 
<1 
10 
10 
<1 
0 
644 
551 
52 
39 
2 
136 
136 2 
2 
1 
<1 
<1 
<1 
1 
<1 
40 
40 111 
111 
46 
11 
45 
1 
5 
3 390 
390 
3 
1 
305 
4 
76 
1 
38 
38 
1 74 
71 
<1 
<1 
63 
<1 
8 
<1 
21 
6 
5 
5 
5 
83 
78 
4 
<1 
Total emissions 30720 796 42 114 429 197 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 0 * 
1100 
1500 * 100 160 5345 2187 364 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
M = CORINAIR figures used 
112 
Sources: 
Ireland. Communication under the UN FCCC. Prepared for the Conference of the Parties in 
accordance with Article 12 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Department of the 
Environment, Ireland. October 1994. 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
CORINAIR (indicated with #) 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. Ireland's national communication does not provide emissions from marine bunkers. 
Other notes: 
Ireland provides in its national communication an estimate of NMVOC emissions from land use change and forestry. 
However, since only few Member States have provided emissions and/or removals from land use change and 
forestry, this category has not been included in the EU emission inventory at all. 
113 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Italy - 1990 (Gg). 
ITALY CO, CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 AH energy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
1 a2 Industry 
1 a3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrouw metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 401400 
401400 
138400 
91300 
95600 
26300 
41200 
8100 
500 
0 
27600 
400 
1500 
2300 
0 
23000 
400 
0 
7300 
5100 
2200 413 
66 
8 
10 
27 
2 
5 
3 
10 
347 
337 
10 
4 
2 
1860 
654 
887 
64 
158 
97 
1611 
1526 
34 
51 42 
42 
20 
10 
4 
3 
5 
<1 
15 
15 
59 
1 
57 
1 
<1 1981 
1981 
462 
377 
967 
22 
34 
109 
8 
2 
0 
<1 
32 
32 
14 7155 
7155 
41 
656 
5645 
27 
55 
535 
3 
193 
0 
371 
173 
182 
2 
14 
20 
0 
1704 
1704 
29 
29 1276 
1137 
27 
19 
996 
2 
8 
69 
1 
15 
140 
140 
73 
3 
<1 
9 
41 
538 
238 
49 
64 
187 
492 
381 
14 
97 
22 
22 
<1 
Total emissions 436300 3889 116 2034 9258 2401 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 8600 * 
4800 * * 
30200 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
U = CORINAIR figures used 
114 
Sources: 
First Italian National Communication to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of 
the Environment, January 1995. 
Eurostat 
- CORINAIR 
Italy's national programme does not provide estimates according to the IPCC format. Nationally reported 
tables are given in terms of fuel and end use. Therefore, Eurostat and CORINAIR figures have been used 
for C02 emissions, for the non-C02 gases CORINAIR estimates have been used. 
Footnotes: 
* Reconciliation of Eurostat and CORINAIR transport estimates. 
115 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Luxembourg - 1990 (Gg). 
LUXEMBOURG C02 CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 AH energy 12600 
la Fuel combustion 12600 
lal Energy & transformation 1900 
la2 Industry 6600 
la3 Transport 2900 
la4 Commercial/institutional 300 
la5 Residential 800 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 100 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 0 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 600 
2a Iron & steel 600 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 0 
3 a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 0 
4a. Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 100 
6a Landfills <1 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 100 <1 
18 
16 
2 <1 23 
23 
<1 
11 
11 
0 
1 
4 
4 
<1 
1 <1 154 
154 
<1 
98 
48 
1 
5 
1 
17 
17 14 
12 
<1 
11 
4 
1 
<1 
1 
2 
<1 
Total emissions 13300 24 <1 23 171 19 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 0 * 
300 b 
0 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
U = CORINAIR figures used 
116 
Sources: 
Rapport National du Luxembourg en vue de la Ie Conference des Parties a la Convention-Cadres des 
Nations-Unies sur les Changement Climatiques. Ministère de l'Environment, Mars, 1995. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR (CORINAIR 1990 - Luxembourg, final report) 
C02 estimates are taken from Luxembourg's National Report, unless indicated otherwise. Figures for non-
C02 gases are CORN AIR estimates. 
Footnotes: 
a. Luxembourg's national communication provides an estimate for emissions from "nature". These have not been 
included in total C02 emissions. 
b. Reconciliation of Eurostat and CORINAIR transport estimates. 
117 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in the Netherlands - 1990 (Gg). 
THE NETHERLANDS CO, CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
la2 Industry 
la3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4 a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 14900 
14900 
51400 
33400 
26900 
9500 
19200 
8600 177 
28 
1900 
700 
800 
400 
0 
900 
900 149 
149 
0 
508 
402 
106 
382 
377 
5 6 
6 
<1 
<1 
5 
<1 
IE 
IE 
16 
22 
22 
15 
4 
11 d 570 
570 
92 
86 
337 
31 
IE 
24 800 
800 
6 
10 
716 
68 
IE 
IE 
229 231 
231 
19 
1 
195 
16 
IE 
IE 
77 
145 
Total emissions 151800 1067 59 575 1029 459 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 35900 
4500 
28600b 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
U = CORINAIR figures used 
118 
Sources: 
Netherlands' national communication on Climate Change Policies. Prepared for the Conference of the 
Parties under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Netherlands, August 1994. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. Netherlands' national communication provides estimates for actual emissions from feedstocks 
(14800 Gg) and statistical differences (1000 Gg). For reasons of consistency with emission inventories from other 
countries these have not been included. Also, the Netherlands applied a correction for temperature influences. This 
correction has been ignored for reasons of comparison. 
b. The Netherlands provides in its national communication an estimate of 28600 Gg C02 emissions for potential 
emissions from feedstocks. To be consistent with emission inventories from other countries, this estimate is used for 
emissions from FNEC. 
c. The Netherlands provides in its national communication an estimate for emissions from polluted inland and coastal 
waters. These emissions have not been included here, since this source is not identified in the draft IPCC guidelines 
for national greenhouse gas inventories and other countries did not provide estimates. 
d. N20 emissions from polluted inland and coastal waters. 
119 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Portugal - 1990 (Gg). 
PORTUGAL CO, CK4 N,0 NO. CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
1 a2 Industry 
la3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 38700 
38700 
19400 
6100 
9900 
1000 
900 
1300 
NE 
3400 
<100 
<100 
300 
3100 
<100 
0 U a 
400 # 
400 13 
11 
2 
2 
1 
3 
3 
5 
2 
2 
<1 
176 
105 
58 
13 
35 
33 
2 210 
210 
60 
18 
108 
2 
1 
21 1072 
1072 
68 
264 
614 
63 
54 
9 
436 
0 
11 
11 117 
109 
11 
3 
81 
6 
5 
3 
13 
8 
15 
<1 
1 
5 
9 
67 
26 
2 
6 
32 
0 
Total emissions 42500 227 11 214 1083 199 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 2100 
1800 
6600 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
Eurostat figures used 
CORINAIR figures used 
120 
Sources: 
Portuguese report in accordance with Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change. Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources, Lisbon, 1994. 
Eurostat 
- CORINAIR 
C02 estimates are provided by Portugal in reply to the request of the Council of Ministers, unless indicated 
otherwise. Figures for non-C02 gases are CORINAIR estimates. 
Footnotes: 
a. Nationally reported estimates of C02 emissions from transport amount to 8700 Gg, while Eurostat estimates amount 
to 10200 Gg and CORINAIR estimates amount to 9800 Gg. Most likely, the nationally reported estimates do not 
include all transport sources, and therefore CORINAIR estimates have been used. 
b. Reconciliation of Eurostat estimates and nationally reported estimates. 
121 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Spain - 1990 (Gg). 
SPAIN CO, CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 222900 
la Fuel combustion 222900 
lal Energy & transformation 78400 
la2 Industry 52300 
la3 Transport 63300 
la4 Commercial/institutional 28900 
la5 Residential IE 
la6 Agriculture/forestry IE 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 0 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 35300 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 900 
2c Inorganic chemicals 600 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 15100 
2f Other 18600 
3 Solvent use 0 
3 a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 0 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 2500 
6a Landfills 1800s 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 700 758 
74 
11 
6 
14 
44 
IE 
IE 
684 
4 
3 
<1 
<1 
0 
0 
<1 
0 
875 
346 
426 
11 
70 
22 
494 
470 
23 21 
21 
11 
5 
2 
3 
IE 
IE 
10 
0 
0 
10 
0 
0 
0 
0 
55 
55 
0 1158 
1158 
270 
144 
723 
21 
IE 
IE 
15 
2 
0 
8 
0 
0 
5 
0 
29 
28 4032 
4032 
20 
401 
2721 
890 
IE 
IE 
248 
188 
60 
0 
0 
0 
<1 
0 
397 
397 
272 
261 
12 634 
568 
11 
9 
489 
59 
IE 
IE 
66 
70 
4 
<1 
3 
16 
0 
48 
302 
87 
38 
38 
138 
95 
74 
22 
10 
2 
<1 
7 
Total emissions 227300 4531 94 1189 4725 1120 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 12200 *b 
4100 *c 
18800 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
# = CORINAIR figures used 
122 
Sources: 
Report by Spain on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Provisional 
Version. National Climate Committee. Spain. 
Eurostat (indicated with *) 
CORINAIR (indicated with #) 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. Spain provided an estimate of 1800 Gg C02 emissions. It has been assumed that these emissions are from non-
organic/non-recyclable material. 
b. Emissions from bunkers have not been provided in Spain's National Report. 
c. Reconciliation of Eurostat and figures provided in Spain's National Report. 
123 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in Sweden - 1990 (Gg). 
SWEDEN co2 CH4 N,0 NO. CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
la2 Industry 
1 a3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 55200 
55100 
7000 
13400 
23100 
11500 
IE 
IE 
IE 
<100 
<100 
0 
5000 
1600 
700 
2500 
200 
300 
100 
50 
50 
100 
500 
500 
IE 
300 
300 33 
33 
1 
4 
17 
10 
IE 
IE 
IE 
196 
188 
100 
100 4 
4 
1 
2 
1 
IE 
IE 
IE 362 
362 
20 
39 
285 
19 
IE 
IE 
IE 
0 
11 
1 
1 
2 1606 
1606 
8 
6 
1503 
69 
IE 
IE 
IE 
0 375 
375 
4 
11 
201 
141 
IE 
IE 
IE 
18 
18 
67 
2 
59 
98 
40 
15 
7 
36 
0 
Total emissions 61300 329 15 373 1612 540 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 4200 
IE 
5700* 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
U = CORINAIR figures used 
124 
Sources: 
Sweden's National Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources - September 1994. 
Eurostat 
- CORINAIR 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from the National Report, unless indicated otherwise. 
125 
Estimates of greenhouse gases in United Kingdom - 1990 (Gg). 
UNITED KINGDOM CO, CH4 N,0 NO, CO NMVOC 
1 All energy 
la Fuel combustion 
lal Energy & transformation 
1 a2 Industry 
la3 Transport 
la4 Commercial/institutional 
la5 Residential 
la6 Agriculture/forestry 
la7 Other 
la8 Biomass 
lb Fugitive fuel 
lbl Oil & gas 
lb2 Coal mining 
2 Industrial processes 
2a Iron & steel 
2b Non-ferrous metals 
2c Inorganic chemicals 
2d Organic chemicals 
2e Non-metallic minerals 
2f Other 
3 Solvent use 
3a Paint application 
3b Degreasing & Dry cleaning 
3 c Chemical prods manuf/proc 
3d Other 
4 Agriculture 
4a Enteric fermentation 
4b Animal wastes 
4c Rice cultivation 
4d Agricultural soils 
4e Agricultural waste burning 
4f Savannah burning 
6 Waste 
6a Landfills 
6b Wastewater 
6c Other 566000 
560400 
231300 
96700 
120600 
30200 
78900 
2700 
5700 
5700 
7400 
7400 
0 
4800 b 
2800 
2200 c 1316 
78 
5 
7 
11 
2 
46 
<1 
3 
4 
1238 
482 
756 
5 
1141 
1004 
125 
12 
2078 
2007 
71 3 
0 
93 
13 
80 
11 
4 
7 2710 
2628 
823 
180 
1498 
56 
68 
4 
82 
82 
21 
12 
0 6317 
6284 
57 
65 
5884 
8 
269 
1 
33 
33 
220 
220 
0 1396 
1306 
13 
2 
115 
1 
37 
90 
90 
455 
417 
38 
674 
237 
61 
72 
304 
0 
19 
19 
Total emissions 577000 4531 108 2740 6682 2540 f 
Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 7200 d 
1400 e 
36700 * 
IE = Included Elsewhere 
NE = Not Estimated 
* = Eurostat figures used 
M = CORINAIR figures used 
126 
Sources: 
Climate Change. The UK report. United Kingdom's Report under the Framework Convention on 
Climate Change. January, 1994. Figures have been updated for consistency reasons with the latest UK 
emission data in the 17th Digest of Environmental Protection and Water Statistics. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 
Estimates for all greenhouse gases are taken from the UK's National Report, as revised by the UK 
Department of the Environment for consistency with the updated emission inventory in the 17th Digest of 
Environmental Protection and Water Statistics, unless indicated otherwise. 
Footnotes: 
a. Not included in emission totals. 
b. Based on UK's nationally reported estimates of 2500 Gg for landfills, and 6051 Gg for incineration. In the UK's 
report, the latter has been presented in category 2F. 
c. C02 emissions from incineration. 
d. UK estimate of international marine bunker emissions. 
e. UK estimate of international aviation^bunker emissions. 
f. NMVOC emissions from land use change (80 Gg) have not been included as part of the total. 
127 
ANNEX 2 
SCENARIOS 
128 
Conventional Wisdom Scenario: energy indicators 
SCENARIO CONVENTIONAL WISDOM 
General The "business as usual' scenario denoting a conventional wisdom view of the most 
Description: likely evolution of events. Economic growth gradually weakens in the long term. 
Although some progress is made, many of the world's structural social and 
economic problems remain. Energy policy remains fragmented, the result of 
unresolved conflicting objectives for competitivity, environment and security of 
supply as well as differing national aims. 
Macro- EU GDP annual growth rates of 2.9% from 1995 to 2000; 2.4% to 2005; 2.2% to 
economics: 2010; 1.9% to 2015; and 1.8% to 2020. Discount rate 8% real. 
Taxation: No reform: Already high tax rates leave little room for further increases to contain 
public deficits; no inclusion of external costs. 
Environment: Although high on EU agenda, environmental approach limited by conflicting 
economic objectives. Progress is made in a number of areas, particularly S02, 
NOx, etc. Measures to meet global warming continue only on a mild precautionary 
basis. 
Energy Prices: Increasing smoothly. 
Crude ($1993) Rising in real terms as world demand increasingly met by Middle East producers. 
$17.6/bbl in 1995, $21/bbl in 2000, $29/bbl in 2010 and $31/bbl in 2020. 
Gas Deregulation and growing network bring lower prices relative to oil after 2000, 
reinforced by increasing as to gas price competition. 
Coal International process increasing slightly, reflecting expected long-run marginal 
production costs. Delivered prices flat as cheap imports displace expensive 
domestic supplies. 
Technology: Some penetration of new, more efficient demand and supply technologies, partly 
driven by public standards and partly by industrialists aiming at increased 
industrial competitiveness. 
Energy Continuation of current actions with some concern on increasing efficiency. Gross 
Demand consumption expected to increase modestly and ever more slowly. 
Issues: 
Oil Very little growth expected as oil is increasingly limited to transportation. 
However, it remains the predominant fuel overall. 
Gas Fastest growing of all primary fuels with increasing share in all end-use sectors, 
particularly power generation. Gains could slow post-2000 as coal becomes more 
attractive in power sector. 
Coal Share declines to 2000 as a result of competition from gas in electricity 
generation. Increasingly competitive prices could mean later recovery of market 
share in the power sector. 
Electricity Electricity likely to gain share in residential, commercial and industrial sectors in 
the medium term although market saturation and efficiency gains could slow the 
growth towards 2020. 
129 
Energy Supply Import dependency accelerates, potentially increasing from 50% at present to two 
Issues: thirds or more by 2020. » 
Oil Domestic production not expected to decline significantly until beyond 2010. 
Import dependency remains relatively close to today's levels. 
Gas Although domestic production likely to be maintained, strong demands rise means 
rapid increase in imports. Liberalisation and infrastructure developments essential 
in expanding penetration of gas in Europe. 
Coal Deregulation and reduced subsidies will result in substantial decline in domestic 
EU hard coal production and escalating imports. 
Electricity No public policy on nuclear or security of supply of fossil fuel imports. No limits 
for use of each primary source. 
Renewables Supply could increase strongly but from very low base. Overall contribution of 
renewables likely to remain small. 
130 
Battlefield Scenario: energy indicators 
SCENARIO BATTLEFIELD 
General Contradictions and instabilities in the global 
Description: system make economic integration very difficult. 
Globalisation is seen as too ambitious. The geo­
political system fragments into blocs, with tensions 
and friction between and also within the blocs. This 
leads to a "Europe à la carte". Energy policies are 
aimed at reducing import dependency; supply side 
measures such as protectionism of domestic energy 
production industries, likely to be more successful than 
demand side measures. 
Macro- EU GDP annual growth rates of 3.1% from 1995 to 2000; 1.1% 
Economics: to 2005; -1.8% to 2010; 1.4% to 2015; and 1.3% to 
2020. Discount rate 7% real. 
Taxation: No tax reform: harmonisation of VAT and excises as it 
stands today, without equality of treatments across fuels; 
some inclusion of external costs (transport sector); taxation 
levels continue to be set aiming at Government revenue levels. 
Environment: Precautionary principles on C02 to 2005, but C02 proven as a 
contributor to global warming thereafter. Nonetheless, 
environmentalism an excuse for protectionism and effectiveness 
frequently compromised. 
Energy Prices: Increasing dependency on fewer major suppliers leads to an oil 
price shock. 
Crude ($1993) Rising from $16/bbl in 1995 to $24/bbl by 2004. Price shock to 
$40/bbl in 2005, falling to $18/bbl in 2009 then rising again to 
$28/bbl in 2020. 
Gas Remain tied to oil, so reflecting the price shock but lagging in 
response. 
Coal International prices flat until the price shock of 2005, although 
falling back thereafter to pre-shock levels. European prices track 
international prices but inflated by the cost of maintaining 
domestic production. 
Technology: As Conventional Wisdom - Some penetration of new, more 
efficient demand and supply technologies, partly driven by public 
standards and partly by industrialists aiming at increased 
industrial competitiveness. 
131 
Energy Demand In spite of attempts to introduce alternative fuels, tension and 
Issues: conflict inhibit efficiency gains. Energy demand likely to rise, 
then to fall back in response to the energy price shock and 
subsequent economic recession before rising again. 
Impact of price shock expected to be considerably, particularly in 
Oil substitutable sectors. Transport growth likely to be checked but 
could rise again later, albeit increasingly constrained by social 
and environmental concerns. 
Underlying strong demand growth but interruption by the price 
Gas shock expected. 
Coal increasingly perceived as a more stable and secure energy 
Coal source allowing it to fight back against gas post-2000, 
particularly in power generation. 
Some penetration of new, more efficient demand supply 
Electricity technologies partly driven by public standards and partly by 
industrialists aiming at increased industrial competitiveness. 
Energy Supply Policy dominated by unresolved conflicts of competitiveness, 
Issues: environment and geopolitical considerations. 
Policy aimed at maintaining European production as high as 
Oil possible in response to security of supply concerns, aided by 
increasing real prices. 
As with oil, policies such as benign upstream taxation aim to 
Gas enhance and extend domestic production to minimise imports. 
Production declines steadily but state aids moderate rate of 
Coal decline. 
Efforts to maintain current level of nuclear capacity in Europe; 
Electricity Setting of limits for the use of each primary source (oil, coal, 
gas) for security reasons. 
Public attempts to develop renewables meet with only limited 
Renewables success. 
132 
Forum Scenario: energy indicators 
SCENARIO FORUM 
General The process of global economic integration produces new 
Description: imperatives for collective public action National, European and 
international institutions are gradually restructured so as to be 
able to deal more effectively with broader, more complex shared 
problems and interests. 
Energy policies most significantly affected by concern for the 
environment. A global unity of purpose allows positive action 
across the energy spectrum. 
Macro- EU GDP annual growth rates of 2.3% from 1995 to 2000; 2.5% 
Economics: to 2005; -2.5% to 2010; 2.6% to 2015; and 2.4% to 
2020. Discount rate 5% real. 
Taxation: General taxation reform: harmonisation of VAT and excises and 
equality of treatment across fuels on an energy basis; external 
costs included - on a "precautionary" approach to 2005 and 
under a C02 driven world thereafter, leads to general fuel tax 
increases in real terms. 
Environment: T°e ecologically driven scenario. The proven case against C02 
from 2005 reinforces strong environmental concerns throughout 
society and results in major policy shifts. 
Energy Prices: Stable throughout 
Crude ($1993) Flat at $16/bbl to 2020 representing an average which captures a 
variation within the range of $10 to $20/bbl. Weak demand 
prevents producers from controlling the market. Consumers 
governments extract much of the economic rent. 
Gas Rising relative to oil as environmental pressures put premium on 
clean fuels. 
Coal International prices constant in real terms in face of 
environmental pressures and thus weak demand. Average EU 
prices fall substantially with phase-down of expensive domestic 
production. 
Technology: Strong penetration of new, more efficient demand and supply 
technologies mainly driven by public standards on a world-wide 
scale - high level of technology transfer. 
133 
Energy Demand Radical policy changes and major technology developments 
Issues: aimed at limiting energy demand growth. Aiming at rapid 
Oil decline, although difficult in transport. Goal is for transport fuel 
demand to flatten to early 2000s then fall thereafter with some 
growth in more efficient diesel, decline in gasoline and 
increasing penetration of non-oil clean technologies towards 
2020. 
Gas Environmental advantages likely to ensure significant increases 
in share although lower overall energy requirements could limit 
volume increases. 
Coal Limited by environmental disadvantages but RTD develops to 
meet environmental challenge. 
Electricity Strongly influenced by public conservation policies and utilities 
demand-side management. 
Energy Supply Fundamental policy changes and major RTD push to limit 
Issues: emissions, notably C02. 
Oil While enhanced recovery technologies ensure more than 
adequate supplies to meet lower demand, low prices hinder 
production from higher cost reserves. 
Gas Domestic production strong, aided by technology. Well-head 
conversion to hydrogen for new energy technologies appears 
towards 2020. 
Coal Domestic production rapidly phased out. 
Electricity No nuclear phase-out with re-launch in some countries (France, 
Japan, NICs); Opportunities for new technologies enhanced. 
Strong growth in share of renewables, accelerating towards the 
Renewables period end as new technologies and radical changes in 
agricultural policy are pushed forward. 
134 
Hypermarket Scenario: energy indicators 
SCENARIO HYPERMARKET 
General Global economic integration is self-reinforcing and continues. 
Description: The force driving this scenario is continued application of the 
market mechanism which is seen as the best way to produce 
wealth and handle complexity in uncertainty. Liberalisation and 
privatisation deliver results and produce new market entrants 
who demand more of the same. Strong belief in free market 
principles result in energy policy driven by desire to minimise 
government control and maximise efficient operation of free 
markets, nonetheless achieving desired standards. 
I | ' "~ 
Macro- EU GDP annual growth rates of 3.2% from 1995 to 2000; 2.8% 
Economics: to 2005; 2.3% to 2010; 2.1% to 2015; and 1.9% to 
2020. Discount rate 10% real. 
Taxation: Some tax reform: harmonisation of VAT and excises taxes 
towards current limits, without equality of treatment across fuels; 
no inclusion of external costs. 
Environment: Precautionary principles on C02 to 2005, after which the case 
against C02 is proven. Governments cannot be indifferent to 
environmental problems but look first and foremost to the market 
for solutions and only secondly to public policy. Public concern 
reinforces the need for the creation of markets for environmental 
protection. 
Energy Prices: Increasing smoothly 
Crude ($1993) Rising in real terms as world demand increasingly met by 
Middle East producers. $17.6/bbl in 1995, $21/bbl in 2000, 
$29/bbl in 2010 and $31/bbl in 2020. 
Gas Deregulation and growing network bring lower prices relative to 
oil, reinforced by increasing gas-to gas price competition. 
Coal International prices slightly increasing reflecting expected long-
run marginal production costs. Domestic prices flat as cheap 
imports displace expensive domestic supplies. 
Technology: Penetration of new, more efficient demand and supply 
technologies substantially dependent on market forces and 
international competition; little Government action. 
135 
Energy Demand High economic grow th and hands-off public policy mean 
Issues: efficiency gains made only for competitive reasons; strong 
energy demand growth likely. 
Oil Oil up against strong competition from cheap deregulated gas 
and imported coal, although transport sector likely to limited 
only by saturation effects. 
Gas The dash for gas becomes a stampede, although there is 
increasing competition from low cost coal imports post-2000 
Coal Likely to decline steeply in the near term but competitive prices 
present potential for strong recovery in the power sector 
thereafter. 
Electricity Little public influence in terms of conservation policies. 
Energy Supply No special concerns on security of supply. Domestic eneigy 
Issues: production only develops where viable on internationally 
competitive basis with no special government support 
Oil Imports rise but downstream investments by producer countries 
allay security of supply worries. Domestic production develops 
in response to rising prices. 
Gas Import dependency increases but mutual commercial interests of 
producers and consumers reduce security risks. 
Coal Withdrawal of subsidies and deregulation lead to phase-out of 
domestic supply. 
Electricity No public policy on nuclear. No limits for use of each primary 
source. 
Renewables With little public RTD investment or incentives, renewable 
growth limited to commercially viable opportunities only. 
136 
ISSN 0254-1475 
COM(96) 217 final 
DOCUMENTS 
EN 14 
Catalogue number : CB-CO-96-228-EN-C 
ISBN 92-78-04176-9 
Office for Official Publications of the European Communities 
L-2985 Luxembourg 
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