EN    EN EN 
EN    EN  COMMISSION OF THE E UROPEAN COMMUNITIES 
Brussels, 18.2.2009 
SEC(2009) 159 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
ANNEX TO THE 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE BUDGETARY AUTHORITY ON  GUARANTEES COVERED BY THE 
GENERAL BUDGET 
SITUATION AT 30 JUNE 2008 
  
{COM(2009) 68 final} 
EN 2   EN COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
ANNEX TO THE 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE BUDGETARY AUTHORITY ON  GUARANTEES COVERED BY THE 
GENERAL BUDGET 
SITUATION AT 30 JUNE 2008 
EN 3   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the Budget ............................. 4 
1.1. Tables A1 and A2......................................................................................................... 4  
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) ..................................................................................... 4 1.1.1. Capital outstanding (Table A1).................................................................................... 5 1.1.2. Annual risk (Table A2) ................................................................................................ 5 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee ...................................................... 8 1.3. Disbursement forecast................................................................................................ 12 1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees ....................................................................... 14 1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations.................................................................................... 14 1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties................................................................................ 14 1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees................................................................................ 15 2. Country-risk evaluation.............................................................................................. 16 2.1. Analyses on other countries ....................................................................................... 16 2.2. Brazil.................................................................................................................... ...... 16 
2.3. Argentina................................................................................................................. ... 16 
2.4. South Africa .............................................................................................................. . 17 
2.5. New Independent States............................................................................................. 17 2.6. Mediterranean partners............................................................................................... 18 3. Explanatory notes for co untry-risk indicators............................................................ 20 
3.1. Country-risk indicators (tables): ................................................................................ 21 
EN 4   EN 1. E XPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE BUDGET  
1.1. Tables A1 and A2 
The purpose of Tables A1 and A2 is to show  the outstanding amount and annual repayments 
of capital and interest in resp ect of borrowing and lending opera tions for which the risk is 
covered by the Budget. The figures show the maximum possible risk for the Community in 
respect of these operations and must not be read  as meaning that these amounts will actually 
be drawn from the Fund or the Budget. 
In these tables, figures related to “New Memb er States” refer to the Member States which 
acceded to the European Union on 1 May 2004 and on 1 January 2007. 
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) 
This is the aggregate of the maximum amounts of capital authorised (ceilings) for each 
operation decided by the Council. 
In order to relate it to the risk which the Budget might have to cover, account should be taken 
of the following factors which could affect it: 
Factor increasing the risk: 
• the interest on the loan s must be added to the authorised ceiling. 
Factors reducing the risk: 
• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB1: 
75% of the total amounts of loans signed in the Mediterra nean countries based on the 
Mediterranean protocols of 1977 and Counc il Regulations 1762/92/EEC and 1763/92/EEC. 
70% of the total amounts of loans signed as  part of lending ope rations with certain 
non-Member States authorised by Council De cisions 96/723/EC, 97/256/EC, 98/348/EC and 
98/729/EC and a sharing of risk between the Co mmunity and the EIB as the Budget guarantee 
covers only political risks in some cases; 
65% of the total amounts of lo ans signed as part of financ ing operations with certain 
non-Member States authorised by C ouncil Decisions 99/786/EC, 2000/24/EC and 
2006/1016/EC, and a sharing of ri sk between the Community and the EIB as the Budget 
guarantee covers only politic al risks in some cases; 
• operations already repaid, since the amount s concerned are the maximum amounts of 
capital authorised (ceilings) and not outstanding amounts; 
• the ceilings are not necessarily taken up in full. 
Another factor to be considered is that some loans are disbursed in currencies other than the 
EUR. Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the ceiling may be exceeded when the amounts 
disbursed up to the date of th e report are converted into EUR. 
                                                 
1 Within each portfolio individual EIB loans are, de facto, guaranteed at 100% until the global ceiling is 
reached. 
EN 5   EN 1.1.1. Capital outstanding (Table A1) 
This is the amount of capital still to be repaid on a given date in respect of operations 
disbursed. 
Compared with the previous aggregate, the amount outstanding does not include loans which 
have not yet been disbursed or the proportion of disbursed loans which have already been 
repaid. 
1.1.2. Annual risk (Table A2) 
Estimated amount of principal and interest due  each financial year by each country according 
to disbursements made until 31 December 2007. 
EN 6   EN Authorised Capital Capital Remainder
Operations ceiling outstanding at outstanding at to be disbursed
31.12.2007 30.06.2008 at 30.06.2008
MEMBER STATES  
EIB (new Member States )  4 060 3 976 1 086
MFA to Bul garia and Romania  253  253
Euratom to Bul garia and Romania  435  435
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL  0 4 748 4 663 1 086
THIRD COUNTRIES
A. Macro-Financial Assistance
Albania 9 9  9
Bosnia-Herze govina 40 40  40
Bulgaria 750
FYROM 90 90  90Geor
gia 142 58  58
Romania 780
Serbia and Montene gro 280 280  280
Tajikistan 75 28  28
Ukraine 453 29  29
Sub total MFA 2 619  534  534
B. EURATOM 1  39  39  23
C. Other
EIB Pre-Accession countries 28 755 4 416 4 703 3 587EIB Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 28 342 5 197 5 274 3 975
EIB Asia and Latin America 8 205 1 452 1 520  570
EIB South Africa 2 400  666  562  266
Sub total EIB267 702 15 790 16 034 9 483
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL 70 321 12 303 12 631 8 420
GRAND TOTAL 70 321 17 051 17 295 9 505
(2) The subtotal EIB includes the EIB loans to Member States.  
Credit line Loans made Amounts Amounts
Operations authorised available minus disbursed outstanding 
cancellations at 31.12.2007
Mandate 2007/2013: 25 800 3 761  364  364
Pre-Accession countries 8 700 1 738  25  25
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries: 12 400 1 305  98  98
Mediterranean 8 700 1 305  98  98
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia 3 700
Asia and Latin America: 3 800  555  240  240
Asia 1 000
Latin America 2 800  555  240  240
South Africa  900  163
Previous General Mandate 2000/20075: 20 060 19 608 12 299 10 448
Pre-Accession countries 10 235 7 395 4 530 4 219
Neighbourhood and Partnershi p countries 6 520 6 451 3 962 3 422
Asia and Latin America 2 480 2 175 1 447 950
South Africa 825 824  400 372
Member States (followin g the accession ) 2 763 1 961 1 485
sub-total 65 %345 860 23 368 12 663 10 812
Financial agreements (70% Guarantee rate) 7 477 6 513 5 859 3 020
Pre-Accession countries 3 770  477  420  317
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 2 310 1 617 1 474  775
Asia and Latin America: 1 022  809  638  181
South Africa  375  375  258  139
Member States (following the accession) 3 236 3 068 1 608
sub-total 70 %37 477 6 513 5 859 3 020
Financial agreements (75% Guarantee rate) 7 712 7 062 7 133 1 130
Pre-Accession countries 1 350  713  713  131
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 6 362 4 492 4 462  903
Member States (following the accession) 1 857 1 958  96
sub-total 75 %37 712 7 062 7 133 1 130
Financial agreements (100% Guarantee rate) 6 653 5 320 5 099 1 073
Pre-Accession countries 4 700  29  29  11
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries  750  315  79  76
Asia and Latin America  903  710  699  149
South Africa  300  285  200  51
Member States (following the accession) 3 982 4 093  786
sub-total 100 %36 653 5 320 5 099 1 073
Total  67 702 42 264 30 754 16 034
(3) Percentage figures relate to the Guarantee rate.
(5) Including Turkey Terra and Special Action Turkey.(4) Loans to New Member States were drawn from 'Pre-Accession countries' or from 'Neighbourhood and Partnership countries' ceil ings. Bulgaria and Romania are 
included in the "New Member States".TABLE A1: CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPERATIONS DISBURSED at 30.06.2008 (in EUR million)
(1) The overall ceiling is EUR 4 000 million for loans to Member States and non-member States. By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21  March 1994, the Council decided to 
extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in certain non-member States.
ANNEX TO TABLE A1: SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS at 30 .06.2008 (in EUR million)
EN 7   EN Ranking Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 until 2037 Total Outstanding
1 Turkey  158,4  248,8  287,9  291,8  302,6  292,4  288,7 2 255,2 4 125,8
2 Romania  116,0  259,4  253,7  265,2  210,8  209,8  190,0 1 195,8 2 700,63 Bulgaria  91,9  95,3  87,0  70,1  82,9  68,0  68,1  331,6  894,9
4 Egypt  91,7  181,3  171,4  157,0  150,7  143,1  125,8  846,1 1 867,0
5 Tunisia  64,6  126,1  132,8  130,2  131,2  133,8  125,3  753,2 1 597,16 Morocco  64,4  130,3  133,4  139,6  139,2  137,3  128,8  939,3 1 812,37 Lebanon  55,0  65,3  57,2  57,3  56,8  51,8  34,5  122,2  500,08 South Africa  46,8  98,7  64,5  53,7  62,0  37,9  40,2  192,1  595,99 Czech Republic  45,2  151,7  82,8  74,0  71,4  68,9  56,4  175,7  726,0
10 Poland  42,3  80,6  76,9  74,5  72,1  66,4  52,7  185,1  650,511 Slovak Republic  32,5  65,6  65,5  66,0  51,0  37,2  25,8  131,2  474,812 Serbia  22,4  44,3  49,2  56,2  51,6  50,4  50,3  516,6  841,013 Mexico  20,5  20,5  20,8  2,9  2,9  2,9  2,9  14,6  88,114 Jordan  20,4  41,0  37,0  35,5  32,3  26,2  20,9  63,6  277,015 Croatia  20,3  30,3  30,4  39,1  42,0  41,8  37,9  324,1  566,116 Slovenia  19,1  25,9  20,8  14,3  11,4  9,4  7,4  6,5  114,817 Hungary  18,1  27,4  24,8  23,9  21,8  13,2  9,0  15,1  153,418 Ukraine  18,0  21,1  5,6  5,4  5,2  5,0  4,8  15,1  80,3
19 Brazil  17,9  70,3  56,7  43,2  38,0  63,2  83,6  193,7  566,7
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina  17,4  28,9  31,5  31,7  53,9  24,6  23,2  169,8  381,121 Syria  17,2  30,2  37,9  37,9  37,9  36,2  36,2  239,9  473,422 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia  15,5  27,4  26,7  26,3  27,8  24,0  25,7  102,5  275,823 Argentina  10,4  15,4  12,8  12,7  9,9  9,9  3,2  3,2  77,524 Serbia and Montenegro  7,0  14,3  14,2  14,2  59,3  56,9  62,5  150,0  378,525 Indonesia  5,4  13,5  16,6  12,0  9,7  9,7  9,7  32,9  109,526 Albania  5,3  12,0  12,2  12,1  13,4  11,3  11,3  85,5  163,127 Cyprus  4,8  9,6  9,7  9,3  7,2  4,8  3,2  0,0  48,528 Peru  4,4  6,0  9,0  15,7  16,5  16,4  13,3  40,4  121,829 Pakistan  4,3  9,4  10,9  10,9  10,9  8,4  5,8  17,7  78,430 China  4,0  7,3  7,4  6,8  6,1  6,3  6,4  25,9  70,231 the Philippines  3,9  8,4  9,2  9,2  9,6  5,1  5,1  10,4  60,932 Latvia  3,7  6,7  6,5  6,3  5,0  4,9  4,8  18,1  56,133 Vietnam  3,5  9,0  13,3  13,7  13,6  13,5  13,3  17,6  97,534 Lithuania  3,3  6,4  5,7  5,5  5,3  5,1  5,0  22,6  58,9
35 Algeria  3,2  6,3  6,1  5,9  5,3  4,6  2,0  0,0  33,4
36 Sri Lanka  2,5  2,3  2,8  4,4  7,4  9,5  9,8  54,6  93,437 Bangladesh  2,2  4,3  4,3  4,3  4,3  4,2  0,0  0,0  23,638 Israel  2,1  4,3  4,5  4,9  4,8  4,9  4,9  32,6  63,139 Thailand  2,1  5,3  4,4  4,1  5,5  7,6  1,8  0,0  30,840 Russia  1,8  4,8  4,8  4,8  6,9  6,9  6,9  39,2  76,141 Costa Rica  1,6  3,2  3,2  3,2  3,2  3,2  0,0  0,0  17,842 India  1,6  3,2  3,2  3,2  3,2  3,2  0,0  0,0  17,543 The West Bank and the Gaza Strip  1,5  3,7  3,7  3,7  3,7  3,7  3,7  12,7  36,344 El Salvador  1,4  2,8  2,2  2,1  1,2  1,5  1,5  5,6  18,345 Malaysia  1,4  2,7  2,7  1,6  1,6  0,8  0,0  0,0  10,846 Maldives  1,3  1,5  2,6  3,3  3,3  3,3  3,3  11,6  30,147 Georgia  1,2  25,0  23,9  14,2  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  64,348 Colombia  1,2  0,0  3,7  8,7  8,7  8,7  8,7  41,6  81,449 Montenegro  0,8  1,5  1,6  2,4  3,1  3,5  3,4  37,3  53,550 Tadjikistan  0,7  1,5  1,5  1,5  13,2  12,5  4,1  0,0  34,9
51 Estonia  0,6  1,0  1,0  1,0  0,5  0,0  0,0  0,0  4,1
52 Uruguay  0,5  0,8  1,0  1,1  1,2  1,3  1,4  1,6  9,053 Ecuador  0,5  0,0  1,8  3,6  3,6  3,6  3,6  16,2  32,954 Malta  0,3  0,6  0,6  0,6  0,6  0,3  0,0  0,0  3,255 Panama  0,2  1,4  2,2  2,2  2,2  2,2  2,2  19,5  32,056 Republic of Moldova  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,1  0,1  0,9  1,357 Laos  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,2  0,4  0,4  0,4  30,2  31,6
Total Outstanding 1 104,1 2 064,6 1 963,8 1 905,2 1 906,4 1 781,7 1 639,7 9 517,1 21 882,6
Sub-total for Member States  377,7  730,2  634,9  610,8  540,2  488,0  422,3 2 081,7 5 885,8
Member StatesTable A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget in EUR million based on the amounts (capital and interest) due under all 
operations (MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30.06.2008
 
EN 8   EN 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee  
Tables A3a, A3b(1), A3b(2) and A4 
Instrument Decision Date of Loan Guarantee Maturity Loan Amount Outstanding Outstanding
decision term Rate Date situation decided amount amount
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2007 at 30.06.2008
 - partially disbursed (b) in EUR million in EUR million - disbursed in full (c) - not yet disbursed (d)
BOP 2002/332/EC 18.02.02 100% (d) 12 000,00  0,00  0,00
EURATOM (3) 100% 4 000,00  435,25  434,50
77/270-271/Euratom 29.03.77 (c)  500,00
80/29/Euratom 20.12.79 (c)  500,00
82/170/Euratom 15.03.82 (c) 1 000,0085/537/Euratom 05.12.85 (c) 1 000,0090/212/Euratom 23.04.90    (b)(4) 1 000,00
Bulgaria  212,50
     1st tranche 20 10.05.2021 (c)  40,00  40,00
     2nd tranche 15 15.01.2017 (c)  14,25  13,50     3rd tranche 17 19.08.2019 (c)  25,00  25,00     4th tranche 15 18.06.2018 (c)  25,00  25,00     5th tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c)  35,00  35,00     6th tranche 16 10.09.2020 (c)  30,00  30,00     7th tranche 16 04.04.2021 (c)  25,00  25,00     8th tranche 14 23.02.2020 (c)  17,50  17,50Romania  223,50
     1st tranche 17 21.07.2022 (c)  100,00  100,00
     2nd tranche 19 26.11.2024 (c)  90,00  90,00     3rd tranche 18 23.02.2024 (c)  33,50  33,50
NCI (3) 100% 6 830,00
78/870/EEC 16.10.78 (c) 1 000,00
81/19/EEC(1) 20.01.81 (c) 1 000,00
81/1013/EEC(2) 14.12.81 (c)  80,00
82/169/EEC 15.03.82 (c) 1 000,0083/200/EEC 19.04.83 (c) 3 000,0087/182/EEC 09.03.87 (c)  750,00
TOTAL 22 830,00  435,25  434,50
(1) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Italy in 1980.
(2) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Greece in 1981.(3) Long-term loans for which the schedule of repayments depend on the dates of disbursement.(4) By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21 March 1994 the Council decided to extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in cer tain non-member States.As Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU as of 01.01.2007, the outstanding amounts under the Euratom instrument are covered by the  Euratom Decisions dedicated to 
the Member States.TABLE A3a
Borrowing and lending operations by the Communities to Member States 
Period 31.12.2007 to 30.06.2008
 
 
EN 9   EN TABLE A3b (1)
 European Community (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 31.12.2007 to 30.06.2008, broken down by countries and tranche
* Member States as of 01.01.2007 in EUR million 
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2007 Amounts Amounts at 30.06.2008
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
    BULGARIA III* 97/472/EC 22.07.97 250,00
     1st tranche 10 10.02.2008 (c) 125,00 31,25 31,25 0,00
     2nd tranche 10 22.12.2008 (c) 125,00 31,25 31,25
    BULGARIA IV* 99/731/EC 08.11.99 100,00
     1st tranche 10 21.12.2009 (c) 40,00 20,00 20,00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 60,00 45,00 45,00
    ROMANIA III* 94/369/EC 20.06.94 125,00
     1st tranche 7 20.11.2002 (a) 55,00 0,00  0,00
     2nd tranche 7 20.11.2004 (a) 40,00 0,00 0,00
     3rd tranche 7 23.12.2004 (a) 30,00 0,00 0,00
    ROMANIA IV* 99/732/EC 08.11.99 200,00   
     1st tranche 10 29.06.2010 (c) 100,00 75,00 25,00 50,00
     2nd tranche 10 17.07.2013 (c) 50,00 50,00 50,00
     3rd tranche  -  - (a) 50,00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA I 99/325/EC 10.05.99 20,00
     1st tranche 15 22.12.2014 (c) 10,00 10,00 10,00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 10,00 10,00 10,00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA II 02/883/EC 09.11.02  20,00
     1st tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c) 10,00 10,00 10,00
     2nd tranche 15 09.02.2021 (c) 10,00 10,00 10,00
   REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA I 94/346/EC 13.06.94 45,00
     1st tranche 10 07.12.2004 (a) 25,00 0,00 0,00
     2nd tranche 10 08.08.2005 (a) 20,00 0,00 0,00
    REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA II 96/242/EC 25.03.96 10 30.10.2006 (a) 15,00 0,00 0,00
    FYROM I 97/471/EC 22.07.97 40,00
     1st tranche 15 27.09.2012 (c) 25,00 25,00 25,00
     2nd tranche 15 13.02.2013 (c) 15,00 15,00 15,00
    FYROM II 99/733/EC 08.11.99 50,00
     1st tranche 15 15.01.2016 (c) 10,00 10,00 10,00
     2nd tranche 15 30.01.2017 (c) 12,00 12,00 12,00
     3rd tranche 15 04.06.2018 (c) 10,00 10,00 10,00
     4th tranche 15 23.12.2018 (c) 18,00 18,00 18,00
 
EN 10   EN TABLE A3b (2)  
 European Community (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Chan ges in amounts outstandin g durin g six-month period 31.12.2007 to 30.06.2008, broken down b y countries and tranche
in EUR million
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2007 Amounts Amounts at 30.06.2008
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c) - not yet disbursed (d)
  UKRAINE I 94/940/EC 22.12.94 10 28.12.2005 (a) 85,00 0,00 0,00
  UKRAINE II 95/442/EC 23.10.95 200,00   
     1/2 tranche 10 29.08.2006 (a) 50,00 0,00 0,00
     1/2 tranche 10 30.10.2006 (a) 50,00 0,00 0,00
     2nd tranche 10 25.09.2007 (c) 100,00 0,00 0,00
  UKRAINE III 98/592/EC 15.10.98 150,00
     1st tranche 10 30.07.2009 (c) 58,00 29,00 29,00
-- ( a ) 92,00
  UKRAINE IV 2002/639/EC 12.07.02 (d) 110,00
  GEORGIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 24.07.2013 (c) 110,00 57,50 57,50
  ARMENIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 30.12.2013 (a) 28,00 0,00 0,00
  REPS FORMER USSR 91/658/EEC 16.12.91 3 28.09.1997 (a) 1.250,00
  TAJIKISTAN 2000/244/EC 20.03.00 (b) 75,00
     1st tranche 15 30.03.2016 (c) 60,00 28,00 28,00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2001/549/EC 16.07.01 15 17.10.2016 (c) 225,00 225,00 225,00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2002/882/EC 09.11.02 55,00
     1st tranche 15 28.02.2018 (c) 10,00 10,00 10,00
     2nd tranche 15 01.09.2018 (c) 30,00 30,00 30,00
     3rd tranche 15 04.05.2020 (c) 15,00 15,00 15,00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2003/825/EC 25.11.03  -  - (a) 25,00
ALBANIA 2004/580/EC 29.04.04 15 23.03.2021 (c) 9,00 9,00 9,00
LEBANON 2007/860/EC 21.12.07 (d) 50,00
UKRAINE (Euratom) 94/179/EC 21.03.94 11 15.03.2018 (b) EUR equivalent 39,00 39,00
of USD 83 million
TOTAL  825,00 0,00 56,25 768,75
 
EN 11   EN TABLE A4 LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB in EUR million 
Date Rate Date of Amount Loans signed Amount outstanding
Geographical Area Decision of decision of guarantee guarantee decided         (minus cancellations)
contract at 31.12.07 at 30.06.08 at 31.12.07 at 30.06.08
MED. Financial protocols(1) 8.03.77 75% (2) 30.10.78/10.11.78 6 062 5 548 5 548  745  674
MED. Horizontal cooperation R/1762/92/EEC 29.06.92 75% (2) 09.11.92/18.11.92 1 800 1 656 1 656  502  455
TOTAL MED. (3) 7 862 7 204 7 204 1 247 1 129
C and E Europe I 90/62/EEC(4) 12.02.90 100% 24.04.90/14.05.90 1 000  912  912  127  109
91/252/EEC(5) 14.05.91 100% 19.01.93/04.02.93  700  493  493  17  11
C and E Europe II 93/696/EC(6) 13.12.93 100% 22.07.94/12.08.94 3 000 2 464 2 464  730  677
Asia, Latin America I 93/115/EEC 15.02.93 100% 04.11.93/17.11.93  750  571  571  145  129
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 100% 18.03.97/26.03.97  153  139  139  22  19
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 70% 21.10.97  122  122  122  21  14
South Africa 95/207/EC 01.06.95 100% 04.10.95/16.10.95  300  285  285  62  51
New mandates 97/256/EC(7) 14.04.97 70% 25.07.97/29.07.97 7 105 6 142 6 142 3 036 2 833
FYROM 98/348/EC 19.05.98 70% 29.07.98/07.08.98  150  150  150  108  114
Bosnia and Herzegovina 98/729/CE 14.12.98 70% 16.06.99/22.06.99  100  100  100  61  59
Turkey Terra 99/786/EC 29.11.99 65% 18.04.00/23.05.00  600  600  600  526  515
Mandates 2000-2007 2000/24/EC(8) 22.12.99 65% 19.07.00/24.07.00 (11) 19 460 18 987 19 008 9 535 9 933
The Baltic Sea basin of Russia 2001/777/EC(9) 06.11.01 100% 06.05.02/07.05.02  100  85  85  76  75
Russia, Belarus, Rep. Of Moldova and 
Ukraine2005/48/EC(10) 22.12.04 100% 21.12.05/09.12.05  500  230  230  0  1
Mandate 2007-2013 2006/1016/EC(12) 19.12.06 65% 01.08.07/29.08.07 (13) 27 800 1 898 3 761  78  364
TOTAL 69 702 40 381 42 264 15 790 16 034
(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78.
       By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance with the Council De cision of 7 October 1975.  
(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 7 204 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4)  Poland, Hungary.
(5) Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.
(6) Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.
(7) Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.
(8) South-eastern Neighbours, Mediterranean countries, Latin America and Asia, Republic of South Africa, Special action Turkey,  as amended (2005/47/EC).
(9) A special lending action for selected environmental projects in the Baltic Sea basin of Russia under the Northern Dimension .
(10) A special lending action for certain types of projects in Russia, Belarus,Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
(11) Restated and amended in 2005.
(12) Pre-Accession countries, Neighbourhood and Partnership countries, Asia and Latin America, Republic of South Africa.
(13) The amount decided of EUR 27 800 million is broken down into a basic ceilin g of a fixed maximum amount of EUR 25 800 million and an o ptional mandate of EUR 2 000 million.
 
EN 12   EN 1.3. Disbursement forecast 
The risk towards Member States should decrease in future as the loans are reimbursed under 
Euratom, MFA or EIB guaranteed financing. Th is situation could change in case some 
Member States which have not adopted th e Euro call upon the Community medium-term 
financial assistance instrument (Balance-of-Payment)2 or call upon the Euratom facility. 
Graph A1: Annual Risk borne directly by th e Budget in EUR million from 2008 to 2014 
based on the amounts (capital and interest) due by Member States under all operations 
(MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30 June 20083 
 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014EUR million
                                                 
2 Council Regulation (EC) No 332/2002 of 18 February  2002 (OJ L 53, 23.2.2002, p.1). This facility is 
limited to EUR 12 billion and has not yet been used. However, on 4 November the Council decided to grant Hungary a loan under the BoP facility of EUR 6.5. In addition, a Commission proposal to the 
Council foresees an increase of the ce iling of the facility to EUR 25 billion. 
3 As of 31 December 2007, the 2008 annual risk for Member States was EUR 769 million. 
 
EN 13   EN At 30 June 2008, the EIB had still to disburse  a total of EUR 6 350 million under the EUR 
20 060 million general mandate 2000– 2007 for third countries: 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
30.06.2008*  
Mediterranean 6 520 6 451 2 206
South-Eastern Neighbours** 10 235 7 395 2 808
Asia, Latin America 2 480 2 175  254
South Africa  825  824  266
Member States* 2 763  816
20 060 19 608 6 350
* EUR 2,763 million for Member States are not included (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia).
** The ceiling includes Terra Turkey and Special Action Turkey.Table A5: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2000 - 2007
 
At the same date, an amount of EUR 3 352 mill ion were to be disbursed under the general 
mandate 2007-2013. 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
30.06.2008  
A. Pre-Accession Countries 8 700 1 738 1 693
B. Neighbourhood and partnership countries 12 400 1 305 1 202
C. Asia and Latin America 3 800  555  295
D. South Africa  900  163  163
  
25 800 3 761 3 352Table A6: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2007 - 2013
 
Graph A2: Disbursement forecast of EIB loans including the new general mandate, 
MFA and Euratom loans and total estimated outstanding covered by the Fund 
5.0007.50010.00012.50015.00017.50020.00022.50025.00027.500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014EUR million
Total estimated Outstanding
 
*It should be noted that, following an action un dertaken by the Parliament, on 6 November 
2008 the Court of Justice annul led Council Decision 2006/1016/EC since it was not adopted 
under the correct legal basis. The Court,  while annulling the Decision, ordered “ that its effects 
 
EN 14   EN be maintained for EIB financing arrangements entere d into before the entr y into force, within 
a period of 12 months from the dat e of delivery of this judgment,  of a new decisi on adopted on 
the appropriate legal basis, namely Articles 179 EC and 181a EC together ”. The Commission 
is currently preparing a proposal to the European Parliament and to the Council to this effect. 
1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees4 
1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations In this type of operation, the Community bo rrows on the financial market and on-lends the 
proceeds (back-to-back) to Member States (balance of payments), third countries (macro-financial assistance) or utility companies (Euratom). 
The loan repayments are scheduled to match th e repayments of the borrowings due from the 
Community. If the recipient of the loan is la te in making a repayment, the Commission must 
draw on its resources to repay the borrowing on the due date. 
The funds needed to pay the Budget guarantee in the event of late payment by the recipient of 
a loan granted by the Community are raised as follows: 
a) the amount required may be taken provisi onally from cash resources in accordance 
with Article 12 of Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 
implementing Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Eu ratom of 7 June 2007 on the system 
of the Communities' own resources. This me thod is used so that the Community can 
immediately repay the borrowing on the date scheduled in the event of late payment 
by the recipient of the loan; 
b) if the delay reaches three months af ter the due date, the Commission draws on the 
Fund to cover the default. The funds obtai ned are used to replenish the Commission's 
cash resources; 
c) the transfer procedure can be used to provide the Budge t heading with the 
appropriations needed to cover the defau lt. This method is used when there are 
insufficient appropriations in the Fund and must be authorised in advance by the 
budgetary authority; 
d) the re-use of amounts repaid by debtors w ho have defaulted, leading to activation of 
the Community guarantee, allows payments to be made within a short period of time always providing, of course, that th ere are recovered funds available. 
1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties 
The Community provides a guarantee in respec t of financing grante d by the EIB under the 
external mandates. When the recipient of a gua ranteed loan fails to make a payment on the 
due date, the EIB asks the Community to pa y the amounts owed by the defaulting entity in 
accordance with the relevant guara ntee agreement. The guarantee call must be paid within 
three months of receiving the EIB's request. Th e EIB administers the loan with all the care 
required by banking practice and is obliged to s eek to recover the payments due after the 
guarantee has been activated. 
Since the entry into force of the Regulation establishing the Guaran tee Fund for external 
actions
5, the provisions of the Agreement be tween the Community and the EIB on 
                                                 
4 The Communities have granted loans and guaranteed  loans to accession countries. Those loans and 
guarantees were covered by the Guarantee Fund and remain outstanding or in force after the date of 
accession. From that date, they cease to be extern al actions of the Communities and are therefore 
covered directly by the Budget. 
 
EN 15   EN management of the Fund state that, after the EIB calls in the guarantee in the event of a 
default, the Commission must  authorise the Bank to with draw the corresponding amounts 
from the Fund within three months. 
If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the guarantee 
is the same as for borrowing /lending operations, see 1.4.1 above. 
An implementation agreement was concluded between the Community and the EIB on 20 and 
22 January 1999 to determine payment and re payment procedures in connection with 
Community guarantees to the EIB. This agr eement was revised in order to reflect the 
provisions of Council Decision 2006/1016/EC of  19 December 2006 granting a Community 
guarantee to the EIB against loss es under loans and loan guarant ees for projects outside the 
Community6. The new Recovery Agreement, whic h has replaced the implementation 
agreement, was signed by the Community and the EIB on 1 and 29 August 2007. 
1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees 
If a borrower defaults on an EIB loan guarant eed by the Budget, the Community guarantee is 
called upon at the earliest  three months after th e date on which payment has fallen due. The 
Community will act within three months of recei ving such a letter from the EIB calling for the 
guarantee to be activated, aut horising the EIB to take the corresponding amounts from the 
Fund (see 1.4.2 above). 
For loans granted by the EC or Euratom, defau lt interest owed by loan beneficiaries for the 
time between the date on which cash resources are made available by the Budget and the date 
of activation of the Fund is dr awn from the Fund and repaid to  the Budget. For EIB loans, 
default interest is calculated during the peri od between the due date  of a defaulted loan 
instalment and the date of receipt of the cash resources by the EIB from the Commission. 
                                                                                                                                                         
5 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 2728/94 of 31 October 1994 establishing a Guarantee Fund for 
external actions (OJ L 293, 12.11.1994, p. 1).  
6 OJ L 414, 30.1.2.2006, p. 95. 
 
EN 16   EN 2. C OUNTRY -RISK EVALUATION  
Countries other than those presented in the main  report, but representing important risks to the 
Budget, notably through EC macr o-financial assistance, Eurato m loans or guarantees of EIB 
projects related financing, and either categorised  as “severely indebted” according to criteria 
set by the World Bank or facing significant imbalanc es in their external or debt situation, are 
also included in the risk evaluation. The c ountry risk evaluation pr esented below comprises 
short analyses or tables of risk indicators. 
2.1. Analyses on other countries 
2.2. Brazil 
Showing considerable resilience to the internat ional financial crisis and the downward trends 
in commodity markets, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow at around 5% in 2008. 
Economic growth is primarily driven by dom estic demand, with investments showing double-
digit growth (around 15% y-o-y in the last four  quarters). Private consumption also performed 
strongly (with an average growth rate of 6.5% in the first two quarters of 2008), reflecting the 
reduction in unemployment, the increase in real wage mass and the rise in public social expenditure (although the targeted primary budget of the govern ment has increased to 4.3% of 
GDP). However, FDI inflows remain strong wi th an expected total of USD 32bn in 2008; 
furthermore, rising interest  rates (from 11.25% at the e nd of 2007 to 13.75%) should favour 
portfolio inflows. Having succeeded in paying b ack in 2006 all its outstanding debt to the 
IMF and the Paris Club, Brazil's foreign debt ratios have dec lined significantly. Also, the 
country has accumulated foreign exchange reserves of USD 215 billion, equivalent to 15 months of good imports. All this had made Brazil clearly less vulnerable to  externally induced 
economic turmoil than in the past. Currently, th e most serious vulnerabi lity is the dependence 
of this favourable picture on commodity prices and capital inflows, worsened by the increased 
uncertainty in the external scenario.  
2.3. Argentina 
The global economic downturn and the unstable internal situation - with a long-lasting 
conflict between farmers unions and the Argentinean government - reduced both consumer and foreign investor confidence, and slowed  GDP growth from 8.7% in 2007 to 6.2% in 2008. 
High commodity prices still favour the external  sector. With final demand being strong, in 
2008 exports growth increased by 7 pp to 27%, comp ared to a growth rate of 33% for imports, 
implying a decline in the current account surp lus from 2.9% of GDP in 2007 to 2.3% in 2008 
(this decline is expected to further intensif y in 2009). The situation of public finances has 
deteriorated somewhat in 2007 as government consumption expanded at  double-digit figures 
in the presidential election year. Moreover, th e inflation outlook has deteriorated, partly 
reflecting the strength of domestic demand  and a policy of maintaining a relatively 
undervalued peso. Moreover, uncertainties c oncerning the legal framework and government 
policy towards public utilities pe rsist, with further detrimenta l effects on the confidence of 
foreign investors. Consequentl y, international rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's 
revised their assessment of the country downward. 
After having fully repaid its outstanding debt of $9.5 with the IMF in 2006, President Cristina 
Fernandez recently surprised the markets and announced that the government would repay its 
$6.7bn debt with the Paris Club usin g central bank reserves. In cas e of an agreement with the 
Paris Club countries, Argentina w ould not have to submit to surv eillance by the IMF, as asked 
for by its western creditors so far. 
 
EN 17   EN 2.4. South Africa 
South Africa is a middle-income, emerging ma rket economy with an abundant supply of 
natural resources. It is the dominant economic actor in southern Africa, accounting for 35% of 
Sub Saharan Africa’s GDP. Real GDP growth  in 2007 reached 5.1 percent with strong 
contributions from construction and financial se ctors. In the first qu arter of 2008 GDP growth 
fell to 2.1 percent, but rebounded to 4.9 percent in the second quarter, reflecting a strong 
expansion in particular in mi ning and manufacturing. The latter c ould partly be attributed to 
base effects as electricity supply improved c onsiderably in the second quarter, following 
severe disruptions in the preceding quarter. E xport volumes benefited considerably from the 
recovery in mining and manufacturing pr oduction in the seco nd quarter of 2008. 
Consequently, the trade deficit na rrowed significantly in the s econd quarter leading also to a 
smaller current account deficit (-7.3%). Net ca pital inflows on the financial account were 
sufficient to finance the deficit on the current account and to further increase international 
reserves. Inflation gained further momentum in the first half of 2008 (11.6% in June 2008) 
with indications of second-round inflationary fo rces. These motivated a further tightening of 
monetary policies. The inflation outlook foresees inflation to fall substa ntially in 2009 and to 
fall back into the 3 to 6 percent inflation target range within 2010. 
The rising risks in financial markets globally have had a ne gative impact on South African 
financial indicators. The South African Rand had declined in value against major currencies 
(25% against the Euro in 2008 by 4 November). The SA economy will mainly be affected by 
a slowdown of the global economy implying redu ced export growth. The financing of the 
current account deficit (8-9%) has become less assured, while rising inflation (11%) gives 
little room for a monetary policy response. Ho wever, a good growth performance in recent 
years contributed to good fundamentals. Fi scal policy was prudent , thus running a budget 
surplus since 2006 and bringing pu blic debt below 30% of GDP. Ex ternal debt is also below 
30% of GDP – close to ha lf of it is denominated  in rand. Foreign reserves are relatively high 
covering 200% of short-term external debt and 3.3 months of imports of goods and services. 
2.5. New Independent States  
In Georgia,  the economic performance was strong in the first ha lf of 2008 with real GDP 
growth of 8.5%. After the August 2008 war with Russia, the outlook is very uncertain. At 
present economic growth is projected to sl ow down to about 4%. The 12-month inflation 
decelerated somewhat to about 10% by mid- 2008 owing to the monetary tightening. The 
current account deficit of about  20% of GDP has been financed  by private capital inflows. 
Some delays are now likely in the planned fore ign direct investment (after a FDI peak of 
15.3% of GDP in 2007) to a projected 9% of GD P this year. The banking sector's borrowing 
in foreign capital markets supported strong cred it expansion and economic growth. Given that 
the banks' access to the international markets is  deterred in the present financial market 
turmoil, the banks are mitigating their refinanc ing risks by consolidating their balance sheets. 
Public spending (especially in the military, in total at equivalent to 8% of GDP) continued to increase in the course of 2008, and the fiscal  deficit is estimated at 6.3% of GDP in 2008. 
Privatisation proceeds help finance the defici t (about 3% of GDP coming from privatisation 
against about 5% of GDP in 2007). The Georgi an Government also placed its first ever 
Eurobond issue of USD 500 million in April. Theref ore, the external public debt is set to 
increase from 17.5% of GDP in 2007 to 21%. In August, Standard & Poor's lowered Georgia's 
sovereign credit rating to B (now with stab le outlook). Georgia is receiving immediate 
financial assistance from the international co mmunity, including a new agreement with the 
IMF and significant grant assistance from the US, EU and other bilateral donors. 
 
EN 18   EN In Ukraine , robust real GDP growth continued at 6.3% in the first half of the year, supported 
by a strong credit growth and an increase in real incomes. The 12-month consumer price inflation continued to accelerate, peaking at  31% in May 2008, driven by food prices that 
account for about 50% of the consumption bask et of the index. The current account balance 
deteriorates rapidly and is projected to reach  a deficit of about 7% of GDP in 2008. The 
external environment is becoming more challe nging for Ukraine. The terms of trade have 
turned negative as steel expor t prices in the world markets are coming down and Ukraine's 
energy import prices continue on an upward trend. Fiscal deficit is kept at below 2% of GDP 
as robust economic growth has supported the government's revenue collection. Ukraine's 
public external debt is set to decline to below 10% of GDP, while the banking sector's borrowing in foreign capital markets has driven th e total external debt to about 60% of GDP. 
The main risks relate to the international financ ial market turmoil and th e political deadlock in 
the country, which has delayed cr ucial structural reforms. More  flexibility in the exchange 
rate policy is welcome to a ddress the growing macroecono mic policy challenges in the 
Ukrainian economy. Some fluctuation in the hr yvnia rate was allowed after May following a 
long period of a de facto peg to the US dollar. Standard & Poor's lowered Ukraine's sovereign 
long-term credit rating to B+ in June, gi ven the growing imbalances of the economy. 
2.6. Mediterranean partners 
gypt's economic growth accelerated from 7.1% in fi scal year 2007 to 7.2% in fiscal year 2008 
underpinned by investment, especi ally foreign direct investments, and private consumption 
(also via tourism). However, the unfolding global financial crisis will sooner or later affect the 
economy of Egypt. The financial sector already shows the first signals. Coupled to the stock 
markets of developed countries, the Egyptian stock market capit alisation has lost since May 
of this year more than 50%, equalling a loss of more than 30% of GDP. This impacts the funding for enterprises negatively. The privatis ation process for state companies is also 
stagnating. The multitude of public enterprises is draining the government budget and hampers a proper functioning of the internal ma rket. Apart from the negative effects in the 
financial sector, the real economy will be hit by a fall in global demand, a slowdown in the 
tourism sector and a fall in inward foreign dire ct investment. On a positive side, inflation will 
come down from its current level of more than  20% y-o-y. In the medium term, the lower 
energy prices are expected to bring down the sti ll soaring food prices. So far, the government 
finances have been stable, with deficits in the range of 7 to 8% of GDP. For this reason gross 
government debt is high, at almost 90% of GDP. The sustainability of public finances will come further under pressure when ec onomic growth starts slowing down.  
Lebanon  appears potentially vulnerable to the unf olding financial crisis because of the 
linkages to trade flows and the sheer weight of  the financial sector in the national economy. 
Emerging markets that are highly dependant on capital inflows – such as Lebanon – are 
among the most vulnerable to risk aversion to th e extent that finance lines and capital inflows 
will be hurt, and onshore US dollar borrowing rate s will rise. On the positive side, however, 
the importance of Lebanon as a ce ntre through which petrodollars earned by Gulf States are 
recycled, the stable exchange rate to the do llar, and the high level of remittances inflows 
provide a cushion. Nevertheless, in recent mont hs the ongoing fall in Lebanese share prices 
reflects the negative sentiment from global market s. In the wake of risk aversion, weaker 
foreign investment inflows might  take their toll on investment. Rising inflation also remains a 
concern. According to the new index of CPI in flation, consumer prices  were 7.5% higher in 
August than in December of 2007, implying a y-o-y inflation rate of around 14%, led by 
soaring food and energy prices. In 2007, Leban on was the middle income country with the 
highest share of FDI inflows in domestic inve stment (64%). Lebanon is one of the countries 
in the southern Mediterranean region most vulnera ble to the impact of soaring prices in view 
 
EN 19   EN of the weight of food and energy in the consumpti on basket and of the still very high level of 
public debt (even though it is es timated to decline from 171 % of GDP in 2007 to 143 % of 
GDP in 2008. Higher refinancing cost s in the wake of global fina ncial problems would further 
weigh on the budget. However, for lack of recent fiscal data, the impact on the budget is difficult to estimate at this juncture. 
In Tunisia , GDP growth is expected to reach close to 6% in 2008, after some years of quite 
buoyant economic growth,. The gross public debt ra tio has gradually dec lined to a projected 
level of just over 50% of GDP. Tunisia s eems relatively well placed to face the economic 
headwinds from the expected downturn in the global economy, although ongoing reforms are 
needed to increase resilience and bolster potentia l growth. That said, the worsening in external 
conditions certainly poses challeng es. The rise in food prices expe rienced in the course of the 
year is burdening public finances via the extensiv e subsidies in place, and is expected to lead 
to an increase in government expenditure of around 0.8 pp of GDP in 2008. Consumer price 
inflation remained relatively stable over the su mmer, unlike the sharp rises witnessed in some 
other southern Mediterranean c ountries, and reached 4.5% in A ugust. It seems, however, that 
a combination of government controls and dela ys in the pass-through of soaring commodity 
prices through the supply chain entail inflationary pressures in the pipeline. The further 
increase in the rate of producer price infl ation to 13.8% in Augus t testifies to this. 
Official figures forecast real GDP growth in Morocco  at 6.8% in 2008. Recent estimates, 
however, point to a rather more moderate gr owth rate around 6%. The economy continues to 
be dependent on the vagaries of  agricultural output (the agriculture sect or still accounts for 
some 14% of GDP and employs 42% of the p opulation). Overall econo mic growth is still 
vulnerable to agriculture volatility.  Non-agricultural GDP growth reached 6.6% in 2007 and it 
should keep a steady growth tr end at around 6% in 2008 and 2009. Th e overall fiscal deficit is 
projected to widen to 3.8% in 2008 from a close-to-balance position in 2007, driven by the 
upward surge in the fiscal cost of Morocco’s  universal subsidy scheme following the sharp 
increase in world commodity and oil prices. The expansion in wages and the great increase in 
food and petroleum subsidies are the key factors behind the subs tantial deterioration of the 
public finances in 2008. Total government de bt was 54% of GDP at the end of 2007 down 
from 58% in 2006, although growing public defic its can put upward pressure on the forecast 
debt level for the future, particularly in a period of decreasing pr ivatization revenues. 
Subsidies have helped keep inflationary pr essures down, although the international food and 
oil price hikes have hit hard Mo rocco and consumption price infl ation is forecast to average 
5% in 2008. The moderation of in ternational commodity prices s hould help to bring inflation 
down to an average of 4.7% in 2009. The external environment remains shaped by a substantial trade deficit standing in 2007 at  19% of GDP. Morocco’s  disappointing trade 
performance is linked to scarce product and ma rket diversification, a low productivity of the 
labour force, a loss of competitiveness in intern ational markets, and the failure to enforce 
some trade agreements. Large increases in tourism revenues and remittances have been insufficient to offset the trade deficit resulti ng in a slightly negative current account balance 
standing at 0.1% of GDP in 2007. However, rising GDP is expected to consolidate the steady 
fall in the external debt -to-GDP ratio about 24% of GDP at the end of 2007.  
 
EN 20   EN 3. E XPLANATORY NOTES FOR COUNTRY -RISK INDICATORS  
Standard footnotes  
a) Includes only EC and EIB loans (outst anding disbursements) to CEEC, NIS and 
MED. 
b) The higher the ranking number, the lowe r the creditworthiness of the country. 
 Countries are rated on a scale of zero to 185; 185 represents the least chance of 
default. A given country may improve its ra ting and still fall in the ranking if the 
average global rating for all rated countries improves. 
Abbreviations and English words used in tables  
S&P Standard and Poor's 
CCFF Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility EFF Extended Fund Facility FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product SBA Stand-By Arrangement STF Systemic Transformation Facility est. estimates 
m EUR EUR million 
bn USD USD billion n.a. not available 
 
EN 21   EN 3.1. Country-risk indicators (tables): 
 
EN 22   EN  
 Country-risk indicators
 Country: Bosnia & Herzegovina 
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
   Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.7 6.8 n.a
Industrial production (% change)
   Federation 7.5 8.6 6.7
   Republika Srpska 19.1 1.4 10.6
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) (1) 44.2 42.9 39.3
Inflation rate (CPI) (12 month average) (% change) 6.1 1.5 5
1.96
Exchange rate (end of period) KM per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.24
KM per USD 1.49 1.33
General government balance (after grants) (% of BiH GDP) 2.9 1.3
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 3581 4053 1712
Current account balance (% of GDP) -8.4 -12.6 n.a
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 561 1468 300Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
m EUR 2789 3426 3339
   months' imports of goods and services 5.2 6.6 4.9
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) (2) 2082 1997 1983
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) (2) 138.1 122.3 n.a
   principal (m EUR) 87 70.8 n.a
   interest (m EUR) 51.1 51.5 n.aExternal debt/GDP (%) (2) 21.3 18.5 n.a
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) (2) 58 49.1 n.a
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) (2) 3.8 3 n.aArrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none none
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling yes yes yes
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 2.73 3.63 3.61
EU exposure/external debt (%) 11.29 18.52 19.22
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 6.40 9.12 11.13
IMF arrangements
Type
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B3 B2 B2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none noneEuromoney 03/06  09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 110   105 104   107 107    106
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
Footnotes
(1) The April 2007 Labour Force Survey points to an unemployment rate of 29% of the labour force
(2) External debt by the private sector is not included (not available).
(a) (b) See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.
 
EN 23   EN Indicateurs de risque-pays
Pays: BRAZIL
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
     Forecast
Taux de croissance du PIB réel (%) 3.8 5.4 4.6
Production industrielle (variation en %) 2.8 6 5
Taux de chômage (fin de période) (% de la main-d'oeuvre) 10.0 9.3 9.0
Taux d'inflation (IPC) (déc./déc.) (variation en %) 3.1 4.5 4.4
Taux de change (fin de période) (Reais pour EUR) 2.7
Solde des administrations publiques (en % du PIB) -2.8 -2.1 -1.6
Balance des paiements
Exportations de biens (m  EUR) 109748 116800 123431
Balance des opérations courantes (en % du PIB) 1.3 0.3 -0.7Entrées nettes d'investissements directs étrangers (m  EUR) 14973 25246 21702
Réserves officielles, or compris (fin de période)
   m EUR 68333 131127 151441
 en mois d'importations de biens 8.0 14 15
Dette extérieure
Dette extérieure en devises convertibles (m EUR) 158800 177960 168120
   (fin de période)
Service de la dette convertible (m EUR) 33340 na na
   principal (m EUR) 23175 na na   intérêts (m EUR) 10165 na na
Dette extérieure/PIB (%) 18.7 18.5 15.0
Dette extérieure/exportations de biens (%) 145 152 136
Service de la dette/exportations de biens (%) 34 na na
Arriérés (intérêts et principal) (m EUR) no no no
Accords d'allégement de la dette et de rééchelonnement (m EUR) no no no
Indicateurs du risque de l'UE
Risque UE/Risque total UE (%) (a) 5.69 4.35 4.49
Risque UE/Dette extérieure (%) 0.38 0.26 0.34
Risque UE/Exportations de biens (%) 0.45 0.36 0.46
Accords FMI
Type No No No
(Date)
En cours
Indicateurs de la solvabilité perçue par le marché
Cotation Moody's pour les emprunts en devises à long 
terme (fin de période) Ba3 Ba1 Ba1
Cotation S&P pour les emprunts en devises à long terme 
(fin de période) BB BB+ BB+
Euromoney 03/06    09/06 03/07    09/07 09/07    03/08
   Position dans le classement (b) 69       66 67     66 66    63
    (nombre de pays) (185)    (185) (185)    (185) (185)    (185)
(a) (b) See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables
 
EN 24   EN footnotes 2006 2007 2008
     Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 4.8 5.6 3.8
Industrial production (% change) 4.5 5.6 4.3
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 11.2 11.0 14
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 2.1 5.8 6.2
Exchange rate (kuna per EUR) 7.3 7.3 7.28
1.3
General government balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -1.6
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 16 998 18 372 7838
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.9 -8.6 -8
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 2 561 3 419 1738
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (m EUR) 8 725 9 307 n.a
months' imports of goods and services 5.3 5.2 n.a
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 29 274 32 929
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 5 949 6 063
   principal (m EUR) 5 864 5 975
   interest (m EUR) 833 805External debt/GDP (%) 85.5 87.9
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 172 179
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 35.0 33.0
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) 6.32 5.74 5.37
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1.88 1.77 N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (a) (%) 3.24 3.18 3.61
IMF arrangements
Precautionary stand-by 
Type programme Aug 2004 - Nov 2006
(Date) Successfully completed
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa3 Baa3 Baa3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB BBB BBBEuromoney 03/06  09/0
603/07  09/0 709/07  03/08
   Position in the ranking 56     54 54    56 56    56 
   (number of countries) (185)   (185 (185)   (185 (185)   (185)
Footnot eSee explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
(a)Country-risk indicators
Country: Croatia 
 
EN 25   EN Country-risk indicators
Country: Egypt
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
   Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.8 7.1 7.2
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) -1 11.5 9.5 8.9
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 4.2 11.0 11.7Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (LE per EUR) 7.2 7.5 8.1
General government balance (% of GDP) -9.2 -7.5 -7.8
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 35.9 42.5 56.6
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.6 1.7 0.5
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 6.0 10.5 12.1Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 22.9 28.6 34.6
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 5.9 6.1
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (bn USD) 29.6 29.9 33.9
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (bn USD) 59.6 54.7 60.0   principal (bn USD)   interest (bn USD)External debt/GDP (%) 27.6 22.8 20.1External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 1.7 1.3 1.1
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 17.92 16.49 17.70
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A 8.68EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 5.86 5.96 5.20
IMF arrangements
Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba2 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07   03/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 68     68 71      69 69    68   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(a) (b )See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
-1 Officially registered unemployed.
 
EN 26   EN footnotes 2006 2007 2008
Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) (1) 3.90 5.00 6.00
Industrial production (% change) (1) 0.80 2.70 12.00Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) (1) 36.00 35.80 33.80Inflation rate (CPI) (% change) (2) 3.20 2.00 9.30
Exchange rate (end of period) (L£ per USD) (2) 61.20 61.20 61.20
General government balance (1) -0.50 0.60 2.50
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) (1) 2445.89 3077.9 1675.8
Current account balance (% of GDP) (1) -0.9 -3.0 -134.0Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) (1) 344.6 240.1 279.4
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (m EUR)
   m EUR (m EUR) (1) 1416.7 1524.4 1628.1   months' imports of goods and services (1) 5.10 5.30 3.50
Convertible currency external debt (end of period) (m EUR) (1) 2495.2 2711.5 3008.7
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) (1) 455.6 323.5 n.a.   principal (m EUR) (1) 389.9 295.5 n.a.   interest (m EUR) (1) 65.6 28.1 n.a.
External debt/GDP (m EUR) (1) 49.1 50.4 55.9
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 102.02 88.10 97.75
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 18.63 10.51 n.a.
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (%) none none noneDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (%) none none none
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 2.47 2.62 2.61
EU exposure/external debt (%) 11.33 9.82 9.17
EU exposure/exports of goods  and services (%) 9.32 8.63 8.23
Type SBA SBA SBA
(Date) 08/05-08/08 08/05-08/08 08/05-08/08
On track (1) yes yes expired 
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none noneEuromoney 03/06  09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
   Position in the ranking 83   82 82    83 83 79
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
(1)     The arrangement expired end of August. Fo r the time being, no follow-up arrangement is envisaged.
(a) See explanatory notes at beginning of the tablesCountry: Former Yugoslav Republic of MacedoniaCountry-risk indicators
 
EN 27   EN Country-risk indicators
Country: Georgia
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 9.4 12.4 3.5
Industrial production (% change) 15.9 15.0 n.a.Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 13.6 13.3 n.a.Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 8.8 11.0 8.0Exchange rate (end of period) (Lari per USD) 1.71 1.59 n.a.
General government balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -4.7 -6.3
(commitments)
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m USD) 2567 3240 3500
Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.9 -20.0 -20.8Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 1076 1562 1200Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m USD 881 1361 1270
   months' imports of goods and services 2.2 3.2 2.5
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m USD) 1697 1790 2800
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (m USD) 270 171 n.a.   principal (m USD) 234.4 131.7 n.a.   interest (m USD) 36.0 38.9 n.a.External debt/GDP (%) 21.9 17.8 21.0External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 66 57 80Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 7.2 5.3 n.a.Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) 0 0 0Debt relief agreements and rescheduling no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 0.98 0.64 0.61
EU exposure/external debt (%) 6.62 5.19 3.62EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 4.50 2.94 2.90
IMF arrangements
Type PRGF PRGF Stand-by
(Date) (06/04-06/07) (06/04-06/07) (09/08-03/10)
On track yes yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none noneEuromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07   03/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 106    120 119     125 125   126   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
Footnotes
(a) (b) See explanatory notes.
 
EN 28   EN footnotes 2006 2007 2008
Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 0.0 4 6.0
Industrial production (period average) (% change) n.a. n.a. n.aUnemployment rate (average) (% of labour force) n.a. n.a. n.aInflation rate (CPI, av) (% change) 5.6 4.1 12.4Exchange rate (av) (L£ per USD) 1508 1508 1508
General government overall balance (% of GDP) -11.1 -12 -9.2
Primary balance (% of GDP) 1.7 0.8 2.6
Total government debt (% of GDP) 177 171 143
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m USD) 2 715       3 681 4 565       
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -10.7 -9.4Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 2 723 2 297 n.a.Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (gross useable)   m USD 16 014     17 417 22 838     
   months' imports of goods and services 17.5 15.7 16.1
External (foreign currency) government debt
Convertible currency external debt (m USD) 20 330     21 221 21 550     
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (m USD) 1 677       1 511       1 534       
   principal (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.a   interest (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.a
Foreign currency debt/GDP (%) 90.0         84 n.a
External debt/GDP (%) 93.4         86.1 76.9         
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 748          576 472          
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 61.7         41 33.6
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.aDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.a
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) 3.79 3.47 4.74
EU exposure/external debt (%) 2.14 2.45 3.66EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 16.01 14.15 17.27
IMF arrangements
Type - - EPCA II
(Date) - - adopted 3-11
On track ---
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B3 B3 B3  
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B- B- CCC+Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07   03/08
   Position in the ranking 98    106 111    116 116    127   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
Sources: IMFCountry-risk indicators
Country: Lebanon
 
EN 29   EN footnotes 2006 2007 2008
Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 8.6 8.2 8.0
Industrial production (% change) 1.0 0.1 4.1
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 14.7 11.9 11.6
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 2.8 7.7 9.0Exchange rate (end of period) (EUR per EUR) 1.0 1.0 1.0
General government balance (% of GDP) 2.7 7.4 3.0
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 920.9 1 333.8 473.6
Current account balance (% of GDP) -24.7 -34.1 -39.1
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 475.0 524.9 311.5
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m EUR 310.3 490.4 526.9
months' imports of goods and services 2.7 2.6 2.8
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 889 1 164 1 457
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) n.a. n.a. n.a.   principal (m EUR)
   interest (m EUR)
External debt/GDP (%) 44.9 52.8 59.4External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 94.2 87.2 :Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) 0 0 0
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling yes yes yes
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) 0.86              0.62             0.51                 
EU exposure/external debt (%) 8.40              5.41             3.67                 
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 8.10              4.84             5.65                 
IMF arrangements
Type none none none
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none Baa1 Baa1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB/Positive/B BB+/Stable/B BB+/Negative/BEuromoney 03/06  09/06 03/07   09/07 09/0703/08
   Position in the ranking none none none
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)Country-risk indicators
Country: Montenegro
 
EN 30   EN Country-risk indicators
Country: Morocco 
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
   Forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.8 2.7 6.5
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 9.7 9.8 …
Wholesale price Inflation (average) (% change) 3.3 2 5Exchange rate (end of period) (MDH per USD) 8.8 8.2 …
General government balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -0.5 -3.8
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 35.1 41.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.2 -0.1 -0.7Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 2.0 1.9 …Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 20.2 24.0 28.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 7.0 6.5 6.8
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)   principal (bn USD)   interest (bn USD)External debt/GDP (%) 23.9 23.8 21.1External debt/exports of goods and services (%)Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 13.62          12.52         17.18         
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/AEU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 4.45            4.52           N/A
IMF arrangements
Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba2 Ba1 BA1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BBB-Euromoney 03/06  09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 66     65 65    65 65    66
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
(a) Officially registered unemployed.
 
EN 31   EN footnotes 2006 2007 2008
    forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.7 7.5 7.3
Industrial production (% change) 4.7 3.7 4.2
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 21.6 18.8 15.1
Inflation rate (RPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 12.7 6.8 11.6
Exchange rate (end of period) (CSD per EUR) 83.91 79.90 81.66
General government balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -1.9 -0.4
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 6 649 8 087 NA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -9.4 -12.4 -18.9
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 3 235 1 505 NA
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR 9 025 9 641 NA
months' imports of goods and services 9.5 8.2 NA
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 14 876 17 983
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 1 974 2 140
   principal (m EUR) NA NA
   interest (m EUR) NA NA
External debt/GDP (%) 58.4 62.0
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 224 222
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 29.7 26.5
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) 301 1 763
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (1) yes no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 7.70 7.97 7.97
EU exposure/external debt (%) 4.51 4.52 N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 10.10 10.04 N/A
IMF arrangements
Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) (2) BB- BB- BB-
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07    03/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 104    93 87     87 87    88
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
Footnotes
(1) In November 2001, the Paris Club creditors agreed on a highly concessional two-phased debt restructuring of 66% in NPV terms .
The first phase (51%) became effective in May 2002 when the IMF adopted the new three-year Extended Arrangement (EA); 
the second phase (15%) will become effective upon successful completion on the EA.
(2) Serbia B+, Montenegro BB. (2006)
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.Country: Serbia Country-risk indicators
 
EN 32   EN Country: South Africa
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.4 5.1 3.5
Industrial production (% change) 6.2 5.8 4.5
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 25.5 23.0 22.9
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 4.7 7.1 11.3Exchange rate (end of period) (SAR per EUR) 9.31 10.04 12.00
General government balance (% of GDP) 0.4 0.9 0.5
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services in bn US $ 76.2 89.5 108.6
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 60658 65293 74282.4
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.5 -7.3 -9.0
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR)
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) $25,6bn $33,0bn $36.6bn
   m EUR 32159 45234 53509
   months' imports of goods and services 3.3 3.4 3.4
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m EUR)
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (m EUR)
   principal (m EUR)
   interest (m EUR)External debt to official creditors/GDP (%) 2.0 1.8 1.6
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 7.0Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none none
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling none none none
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 8.27                 9.01           5.65           
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 1.54                 1.72           0.80           
IMF arrangements
Type none none none
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa1 Baa1 Baa1
S&P long-term foreign currency ra ting (end of period) BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
   Position in the ranking (b)           55      55 55      55 55    55
   (number of countries) (185)  (185) (185)  (185) (185)  (185)
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes  at beginning of the tables.
 
EN 33   EN Country-risk indicators
Country: Turkey
footnotes 2006 2007 2008
forecast
Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.9 4.6 4.2
Industrial production (% change) 5.8 5.4 2.5Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 9.9 9.9 10.2Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 9.6 8.8 9.9Exchange rate (end of period) (TL per EUR) 1.80 1.78 1.88
General government balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -1.2 -1.1
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 67724 72815 78290
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -5.7 -6.3
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 15004 13427 8862Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m EUR 48139 48438 46016
   months' imports of goods and services 5.9 5.3 4.8
External debt
Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 142857 133808 165000
   (end of period)Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 98901 92637 100000   principal (m EUR) 76815 69296 74804
   interest (m EUR) 22086 23341 25196
External debt/GDP (%) 35.1 32.1 36.9External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 210.9 183.8 210.8Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 146.0 127.2 127.7Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none noneDebt relief agreements and rescheduling none none none
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 22.63 24.51 39.10
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1.47 1.99 2.50EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 2.91 3.14 5.27
IMF arrangements
Type SBA SBA SBA
(Date) (05/08) (05/08) (until 05/08)
On track yes yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Ba3 Ba3S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- BB-Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07    03/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 71    69 69     68 68    69
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (185)
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.
 
EN 34   EN footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(forecast)
Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.3 7.6 6.4
Industrial production (% change) 6.2 10.2 n.a.Unemployment (ILO definition) (% of labour force) 7.4 6.7 n.a.
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 11.6 16.6 18.5
Exchange rate (end of period) (Hryvnia per USD) 5.05 5.05 n.a.
General government balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -2.0 -1.2
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m USD) 50239 64001 75000
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -3.7 -7.2Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 5737 9218 12700
Official reserves, (end of period)
   m USD 21900 32460 36500
   months' imports of goods and services 4.2 5.3 5.0
External debt
Public external debt (m USD) 14800 15600 15500
   (end of period)
Public external debt service (m USD) 2590 2500 2200   principal (m USD) 1675
   interest (m USD) 915
External debt/GDP (%) 12.2 10.7 8.5External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 25.7 23.6 20.5
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 5.1 3.9 3.0
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no noDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 0.73 0.86 0.76
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0.61 0.78 0.82
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0.17 0.19 0.17
IMF arrangements
Type None None None
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B2 Ba3 B1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- BB-Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07 03/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 78     78 76     80 80     76
   (number of countries) (185)  (185) (185)  (185) (185)  (185)
Footnotes
(a) (b) See explanatory notes.Country-risk indicators
Country: Ukraine