EN    EN EN 
004 
EN    EN  EUROPEAN COMMISSION 
Brussels, 29.3.2011 
SEC(2011) 371 final 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
accompanying the 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIA MENT AND THE COUNCIL 
 
on guarantees covered by the general budget  
situation at 30 June 2010  
   
COM(2011) 150 final  
EN 2   EN COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
accompanying the 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIA MENT AND THE COUNCIL 
 
on guarantees covered by the general budget  
situation at 30 June 2010 
EN 3   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the Budget..............................4 
1.1. Tables A1 and A2.........................................................................................................4  
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1)......................................................................................4 1.1.2. Capital outstanding (Table A1) ....................................................................................5 1.1.3. Annual risk (Table A2).................................................................................................5  
1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee.......................................................8 1.3. Evolution of risk ......................................................................................................... 12 
1.3.1. Situation of loans to Member States...........................................................................12 1.3.2. Situations of loans to third countries ..........................................................................13 1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees........................................................................15 1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations ....................................................................................15 1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties................................................................................16 1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees ................................................................................17 2. Country-risk evaluation ..............................................................................................18 2.1. Candidate countries ....................................................................................................19 2.1.1. Turkey.................................................................................................................. .......19 
2.2. Potential candidate countries......................................................................................20 2.2.1. Serbia.................................................................................................................. ........20 
2.3. Mediterranean partners...............................................................................................22 2.3.1. Egypt................................................................................................................... ........22 
2.3.2. Lebanon ................................................................................................................. .....23 
2.3.3. Tunisia ................................................................................................................. .......25 
2.3.4. Morocco................................................................................................................. .....26 
2.3.5. Syria................................................................................................................... .........27 
2.4. Other countries ........................................................................................................... 28 
2.4.1. South Africa............................................................................................................ ....28 
2.4.2. Brazil .................................................................................................................. ........29 
2.4.3. Mexico.................................................................................................................. ......31 
EN 4   EN 1. EXPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE BUDGET  
1.1. Tables A1 and A2 
The purpose of Tables A1 and A2 is to show the outstanding amount and annual repayments of 
capital and interest in respect of borrowing and lending operations fo r which the risk is covered by 
the Budget. The figures show the maximum possible risk for the EU in resp ect of these operations 
and must not be read as meaning that these am ounts will actually be drawn from the Fund or the 
Budget. 
1.1.1.  Authorised ceiling (Table A1) 
This is the aggregate of the maximum amounts of  capital authorised (cei lings) for each operation 
decided by the Council or by the Eur opean Parliament and the Council. 
In order to relate it to the risk which the Budget might have to cover, account should be taken of the 
following factors which could affect it: 
Factor increasing the risk: 
• the interest on the loan s must be added to the authorised ceiling. 
Factors reducing the risk: 
• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB1: 
75% of the total amounts of loans signed in  the Mediterranean countries based on the 
Mediterranean protocols of 1977 and Counc il Regulations 1762/92/EEC and 1763/92/EEC. 
70% of the total amounts of loan s signed as part of lending ope rations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 96/ 723/EC, 97/256/EC, 98/348/EC and 98/729/EC and a 
sharing of risk between the EU and the EIB as the Budget guarantee covers only political risks in 
some cases; 
65% of the total amounts of loans signed as part of financing operations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 99/786/ EC, 2000/24/EC and Decision 2009/633/EC of the 
European Parliament and of the Council, and a shar ing of risk between the EU and the EIB as the 
Budget guarantee covers only political risks in some cases, as regards the two first-mentioned 
decisions, and only risks of a polit ical or sovereign nature in the case of the last decision; 
• operations already repaid, sinc e the amounts concerned are the maximum amounts of capital 
authorised (ceilings) and not outstanding amounts; 
• the ceilings are not necessarily taken up in full. 
Another factor to be considered is that some loan s are disbursed in currencies other than the EUR. 
Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the ceiling may be exceeded when the amounts disbursed up to 
the date of the report are converted into EUR. 
                                                 
1 Within each portfolio individual EIB loans are, de fact o, guaranteed at 100% until the global ceiling is reached. 
EN 5   EN 1.1.2.  Capital outstanding (Table A1) 
This is the amount of cap ital still to be repaid on  a given date in respect of operations disbursed. 
Compared with the previous aggregate, the am ount outstanding does not include loans which have 
not yet been disbursed or the proportion of disbursed loans wh ich have already been repaid. 
1.1.3.  Annual risk (Table A2) 
Estimated amount of principal and interest due each financial year by each country according to 
disbursements made until 30 June 20102. 
                                                 
2 For the purpose of this calculation, it is assumed th at defaulting loans are not accelerated, i.e. only due 
payments are taken into account. 
EN 6   EN Authorised Capital Capital Remainder
Operations ceiling outstanding at outstanding at to be disbursed
31.12.2009 30.06.2010 at 30.06.2010
MEMBER STATES  
EIB (Member States )  3 533 3 363  652
MFA to Bul garia and Romania  90 65
Euratom to Bul garia and Romania  427 422
BoP1 
Hungary 6 500 5 500 5 500 1 000
Latvia 3 100 2 200 2 700  400Romania 5 000 1 500 2 500 2 500
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL 14 600 13 250 14 550 4 552
THIRD COUNTRIESA. Macro-Financial Assistance
Albania 9 9 9
Bosnia-Herze go v i n a 4 04 04 0
F Y R O M 9 07 77 4
Geor gia 142 36 36
Lebanon 50 25 25  25Serbia and Montene
gro 280 280 280
Taji k i s t a n 7 52 82 8
 
Sub total MFA  686  495  492  25
B. EURATOM2  54  55  9
C. Other
EIB Pre-Accession countries 28 755 6 333 7 092 5 722EIB Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 28 342 6 641 6 985 4 554
EIB Asia and Latin America 8 205 2 049 2 647 1 185
EIB South Africa 2 400  667  743  536
Sub total EIB382 302 19 224 20 830 12 650
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL 82 988 16 239 18 014 12 031GRAND TOTAL 97 588 29 489 32 563 16 583
(1) By Decision 431/2008/EC of 18 May 20 09 the Council decided to increase the ceili ng from EUR 25 000 mi llion to EUR 50 000 mi llion.
(3) The subtotal EIB includes the EIB loans to Member States.  
Credit line Loans made Amounts Amounts
Operations authorised available minus disbursed outstanding 
cancellations at 30.06.2010
Mandate 2007/2013: 25 800 13 125 4 487 4 365
Pre-Accession countries 8 700 5 793 1 673 1 672
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries: 12 400 4 608 1 459 1 343
Mediterranean 8 700 3 860 1 334 1 333
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia 3 700  748  125  10
Asia and Latin America: 3 800 2 241 1 289 1 286
Asia 1 000  616  226  226
Latin America 2 800 1 625 1 063 1 060
South Africa  900  483  65  64
Previous General Mandate 2000/20076: 20 060 19 310 15 538 12 356
Pre-Accession countries 10 235 7 338 5 748 5 038
Neighbourhood and Partnershi p countries 6 520 6 261 5 123 4 224
Asia and Latin America 2 480 2 125 1 816 1 075
South Africa 825 824 683  566
Member States (followin g the accession )52 762 2 168 1 454
sub-total 65 %445 860 32 434 20 025 16 721
Financial agreements (70% Guarantee rate) 7 477 6 513 6 075 2 505Pre-Accession countries
3 770  477  452  285
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 2 310 1 617 1 515  606
Asia and Latin America: 1 022  809  683  162
South Africa  375  375  278  109
Member States (followin g the accession )53 236 3 147 1 344
sub-total 70 %47 477 6 513 6 075 2 505
Financial agreements (75% Guarantee rate) 7 712 7 062 7 226  806
Pre-Accession countries 1 350  713  728  92
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 6 362 4 492 4 539  654
Member States (followin g the accession )51 857 1 959  60
sub-total 75 %47 712 7 062 7 226  806
Financial agreements (100% Guarantee rate) 6 653 5 320 5 261  797Pre-Accession countries
4 700  29  29  6
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries  750  315  169  158
Asia and Latin America  903  710  730  125
South Africa  300  285  204  4
Member States (followin g the accession )53 982 4 129  504
sub-total 100 %46 653 5 320 5 261  797
Total  67 702 51 330 38 586 20 830
(4) Percentage figures relate to the Guarantee rate.
(6) Including Turkey Terra and Special Action Turkey.TABLE A1: CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPE RATIONS DISBURSED at 30.06.2010 (in EUR million)
(2) The overall ceiling is EUR 4 000 million for loans to Member States and to certain non-member States. 
ANNEX TO TABLE A1: SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS at 30.06.2010 (in EUR million)
(5) Loans to Member States were drawn from 'Pre-Accession countries' or from 'Neighbourhood and Partnership countries' ceilings .
 
EN 7   EN Sum of K + I in EUR million Année de valeur2 Année de valeur
Ranking Country 2nd / 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 until 2040 Total Outstanding
1 Turkey  199,0  360,8  395,5  403,0  445,8  448,0  382,9 3 710,2 6 345,3
2 Hungary  146,7 2 210,3  142,7  133,6 2 128,4  63,0 1 558,8  2,1 6 385,5
3 Romania  121,1  382,6  329,7  328,7  309,2 1 808,1  238,3 3 211,3 6 728,9
4 Egypt  98,3  216,0  207,9  205,1  186,3  185,6  185,8 1 048,7 2 333,75 Tunisia  81,1  153,8  159,1  165,6  161,6  157,1  147,8  926,1 1 952,26 Morocco  81,1  169,0  172,5  175,6  175,9  216,9  149,3 1 225,6 2 365,97 South Africa  70,6  73,0  94,1  65,1  67,5  68,5  70,4  318,2  827,48 Lebanon  55,5  76,3  79,2  78,6  85,4  58,0  50,0  120,7  603,69 Bulgaria  51,6  75,5  87,5  72,8  73,4  69,8  67,4  251,7  749,8
10 Poland  42,1  81,8  79,2  73,3  53,5  43,4  29,4  112,9  515,411 Czech Republic  40,8  73,3  70,7  68,2  56,4  45,7  43,7  86,3  485,112 Serbia  35,4  82,9  131,3  137,0  148,5  199,6  146,7  625,7 1 507,113 Syria  30,1  76,8  78,6  76,1  75,3  80,3  79,1  327,4  823,914 Slovak Republic  27,3  58,0  51,0  37,2  25,8  15,1  14,7  101,4  330,515 Brazil  26,6  57,0  50,4  82,7  115,3  245,2  218,5  88,6  884,316 Mexico  25,3  3,8  3,8  3,8  3,8  3,8  3,8  11,3  59,117 Jordan  25,0  49,2  48,7  41,6  36,9  28,7  26,4  171,3  427,818 Georgia  22,2  13,6  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  35,819 Bosnia and Herzegovina  19,0  37,4  61,7  35,0  34,2  76,0  32,4  196,1  491,820 Croatia  17,4  41,7  44,7  44,7  41,4  39,4  38,3  265,7  533,321 Argentina  15,1  26,7  23,1  51,5  41,4  40,0  34,2  94,0  326,0
22 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia  13,5  31,7  35,5  32,2  34,2  28,3  24,3  59,9  259,6
23 Indonesia  10,8  17,1  14,8  14,8  14,8  14,8  10,1  25,8  123,124 Vietnam  8,9  16,5  16,5  17,4  17,2  13,3  13,5  67,8  171,125 Slovenia  8,5  14,3  11,4  9,4  7,4  4,4  2,1  0,0  57,626 Albania  7,6  15,1  16,6  14,7  17,9  18,8  18,2  129,2  238,227 the Philippines  7,0  13,7  14,3  14,9  16,3  15,0  13,6  25,3  120,128 Pakistan  6,8  13,4  13,4  10,1  6,8  6,8  4,9  10,2  72,529 Peru  6,4  20,2  21,2  21,0  17,1  17,1  14,1  20,7  137,830 Israel  6,4  14,0  14,1  14,3  14,6  12,7  11,2  146,3  233,531 Colombia  5,4  14,6  20,8  20,8  20,8  20,8  20,8  42,1  166,132 Cyprus  5,1  9,8  7,6  5,0  3,3  0,0  0,0  0,0  30,733 China  4,9  8,7  7,9  8,0  8,7  9,3  4,2  39,8  91,434 Ukraine  4,6  7,1  7,1  7,0  6,9  11,4  11,3  68,4  123,835 Latvia  3,7  98,5  96,8  96,7 1 096,6 1 265,2  26,9  812,7 3 497,136 Panama  3,6  7,0  7,0  7,0  7,0  7,2  7,3  135,5  181,737 India  2,9  3,2  8,2  22,5  24,3  24,3  24,3  32,9  142,638 Lithuania  2,8  5,5  5,3  5,1  5,0  4,8  4,6  13,3  46,339 Bangladesh  2,8  5,5  5,5  5,4  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  19,2
40 Russia  2,7  4,9  7,8  7,7  8,1  8,5  8,5  40,1  88,4
41 Sri Lanka  2,5  5,3  8,2  10,9  14,0  15,7  13,1  54,5  124,342 Ecuador  2,4  4,6  4,6  4,6  4,6  4,6  4,6  11,6  41,843 Thailand  2,2  5,2  7,1  9,7  2,4  0,0  0,0  0,0  26,744 The West Bank and the Gaza Strip  2,2  4,5  4,5  4,5  4,5  4,5  4,3  6,5  35,345 Montenegro  2,2  4,5  12,8  13,4  15,4  16,8  16,9  80,8  162,846 Maldives  2,2  5,0  5,8  5,8  5,8  5,8  5,8  13,0  49,247 Costa Rica  2,1  4,2  4,2  4,2  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  14,648 Malaysia  1,7  2,1  2,1  1,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  6,949 Uruguay  1,5  3,5  4,0  4,8  5,3  4,4  4,4  2,2  30,050 El Salvador  1,2  2,3  1,1  1,6  1,4  1,9  1,4  10,9  21,751 Laos  1,2  2,6  2,8  2,9  2,9  2,9  3,0  67,6  85,852 Estonia  0,5  1,0  0,5  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  2,053 Malta  0,3  0,7  0,7  0,3  0,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  2,154 Paraguay  0,2  4,1  8,1  16,3  16,3  16,3  12,2  8,1  81,755 Republic of Moldova  0,2  0,3  0,3  0,4  0,5  1,3  1,5  11,0  15,5
56 Tadjikistan  0,1  0,3  12,3  12,1  4,0  0,0  0,0  0,0  28,9
Total outstanding 1 368,7 4 690,4 2 722,5 2 705,9 5 669,9 5 449,3 3 804,9 14 831,4 41 242,8
Member States 450,5 3.011,2 883,2 830,3 3.758,9 3.319,5 1.985,7 4.591,7 18.831,1
Non Member States 918,1 1.679,1 1.839,3 1.875,6 1.911,0 2.129,7 1.819,1 10.239,7 22.411,7Table A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget in EUR milli on based on the amounts (capital and interest) due under all operat ions (MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) 
disbursed at 30.06.2010
EN 8   EN 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee  
Tables A3a, A3b(1), A3b(2) and A4 
Instrument Decision Date of Loan Guarantee Maturity Loan Amount Outstanding Outstanding
decision term Rate Date situation decided amount amount
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2009 at 30.06.2010
 - partially disbursed (b) in EUR million in EUR million - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
BOP
2009/431/EC 8/05/2009 100% (b) 50.000,00 9.200,00 10.700,00
Hungary 2009/102/EC 4/11/2008 (b) 6.500,00 5.500,00 5.500,00
1st tranche 9/12/2008 3 9/12/2011 (c) 2.000,00 2.000,00
2nd tranche 26/03/2009 5,6 7/11/2014 (c) 2.000,00 2.000,00
3 rd tranche 6/07/2009 6,8 6/04/2016 (c) 1.500,00 1.500,00
Latvia 2009/290/EC 20/01/2009 (b) 3.100,00 2.200,00 2.700,00
1st tranche 25/02/2009 5,1 3/04/2014 (c) 1.000,00 1.000,00
2nd tranche 27/07/2009 5,5 27/01/2015 (c) 1.200,00 1.200,00
3rd tranche 17/02/2010 9,2 10/05/2019 (c) 500,00
Romania 2009/459/EC 6/05/2009 (b) 5.000,00 1.500,00 2.500,00
1st tranche 27/07/2009 5,5 27/01/2015 (c) 1.500,00 1.500,00
2nd tranche 17/02/2010 9,2 10/05/2019 (c) 1.000,00
EURATOM  100% 4.000,00 426,75 421,75
77/270-271/Euratom 29/03/1977 (c) 500,00
80/29/Euratom 20/12/1979 (c) 500,00
82/170/Euratom 15/03/1982 (c) 1.000,00
85/537/Euratom 5/12/1985 (c) 1.000,00
90/212/Euratom 23/04/1990 (b) 1.000,00
Bulgaria 212,50
     1st tranche 20 10/05/2021 (c) 40,00 40,00
     2nd tranche 15 15/01/2017 (c) 11,25 9,25     3rd tranche 17 19/08/2019 (c) 25,00 25,00
     4th tranche 15 18/06/2018 (c) 21,25 20,00
     5th tranche 15 16/01/2019 (c) 33,25 31,50
     6th tranche 16 10/09/2020 (c) 30,00 30,00
     7th tranche 16 4/04/2021 (c) 25,00 25,00
     8th tranche 14 23/02/2020 (c) 17,50 17,50
Romania 223,50
     1st tranche 17 21.07.2022 (c) 100,00 100,00
     2nd tranche 19 26.11.2024 (c) 90,00 90,00     3rd tranche 18 23.02.2024 (c) 33,50 33,50
TOTAL 54.000,00 9.626,75 11.121,75 TABLE A3a
BoP and Euratom lending operations to Member States 
Period 31.12.2009 to 30.06.2010
 
EN 9   EN TABLE A3b (1)
 European Union (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States*
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 31.12.2009 to 30.06.2010, broken down by countries and tranche
* Member States as of 01.01.2007 in EUR million 
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2009 Amounts Amounts at 30.06.2010
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
    BULGARIA IV* 99/731/EC 08.11.99 100.00
     1st tranche 10 21.12.2009 (c) 40.00 0.00 0.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 60.00 15.00 15.00
    ROMANIA IV* 99/732/EC 08.11.99 200.00   
     1st tranche 10 29.06.2010 (c) 100.00 25.00 25.00 0.00
     2nd tranche 10 17.07.2013 (c) 50.00 50.00 50.00
     3rd tranche  - - ( a ) 50.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA I 99/325/EC 10.05.99 20.00
     1st tranche 15 22.12.2014 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA II 02/883/EC 09.11.02  20.00
     1st tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 09.02.2021 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    FYROM I 97/471/EC 22.07.97 40.00
     1st tranche 15 27.09.2012 (c) 25.00 15.00 15.00
     2nd tranche 15 13.02.2013 (c) 15.00 12.00 3.00 9.00
    FYROM II 99/733/EC 08.11.99 50.00
     1st tranche 15 15.01.2016 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 30.01.2017 (c) 12.00 12.00 12.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.06.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     4th tranche 15 23.12.2018 (c) 18.00 18.00 18.00
 
EN 10   EN TABLE A3b (2)  
 European Union (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Chan ges in amounts outstandin g durin g six-month period 31.12.2009 to 30.06.2010, broken down b y countries and tranche
in EUR million
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2009 Amounts Amounts at 30.06.2010*
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c) - not yet disbursed (d)
  UKRAINE IV 2002/639/EC 12.07.02 (d) 110.00
  GEORGIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 24.07.2013 (c) 110.00 35.50 35.50
  ARMENIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 30.12.2013 (a) 28.00
  TAJIKISTAN 2000/244/EC 20.03.00 (b) 75.00
     1st tranche 15 30.03.2016 (c) 60.00 28.00 28.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2001/549/EC 16.07.01 15 17.10.2016 (c) 225.00 225.00 225.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2002/882/EC 09.11.02 55.00
     1st tranche 15 28.02.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 01.09.2018 (c) 30.00 30.00 30.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.05.2020 (c) 15.00 15.00 15.00
ALBANIA 2004/580/EC 29.04.04 15 23.03.2021 (c) 9.00 9.00 9.00
LEBANON 2007/860/EC 21.12.07 04.06.2014 (b) 50.00 25.00 25.00
UKRAINE (Euratom) 94/179/EC 21.03.94 11 15.03.2018 (b) EUR equivalent 53.91 54.72
15.03.2007 (c) 39.00 EUR 33.15 1.95 31.20
06.10.2008 (c) 22.00 USD 13.66 0.86 15.10
15.10.2009 (c) 10.34 USD 7.10 8.42
of USD 83 million
TOTAL  638.41 0.00 30.81 611.22
* including exchange rate valuation of EUR +3.62 million for the 2 Euratom tranches with Ukraine
 
EN 11   EN TABLE A4 LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB in EUR million 
Date Rate Date of Amount Loans signed Amount outstanding
Geographical Area Decision of decision of guarantee guarantee decided         (minus cancellations)
contract at 31.12.09 at 30.06.10 at 31.12.09 at 30.06.10
MED. Financial protocols(1) 8.03.77 75% (2) 30.10.78/10.11.78 6 062 5 548 5 548  494  469
MED. Horizontal cooperation 1762/92/EEC 29.06.92 75% (2) 09.11.92/18.11.92 1 800 1 656 1 656  357  338
TOTAL MED. (3) 7 862 7 204 7 204  851  806
C and E Europe I 90/62/EEC(4) 12.02.90 100% 24.04.90/14.05.90 1 000  912  912  90  92
91/252/EEC(5) 14.05.91 100% 19.01.93/04.02.93  700  493  493  2  0
C and E Europe II 93/696/EC(6) 13.12.93 100% 22.07.94/12.08.94 3 000 2 464 2 464  455  418
Asia, Latin America I 93/115/EEC 15.02.93 100% 04.11.93/17.11.93  750  571  571  114  121
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 100% 18.03.97/26.03.97  153  139  139  5  5
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 70% 21.10.97  122  122  122  7  7
South Africa 95/207/EC 01.06.95 100% 04.10.95/16.10.95  300  285  285  5  4
New mandates 97/256/EC(7) 14.04.97 70% 25.07.97/29.07.97 7 105 6 142 6 142 2 421 2 328
FYROM 98/348/EC 19.05.98 70% 29.07.98/07.08.98  150  150  150  107  101
Bosnia and Herzegovina 98/729/CE 14.12.98 70% 16.06.99/22.06.99  100  100  100  71  69
Turkey Terra 99/786/EC 29.11.99 65% 18.04.00/23.05.00  600  600  600  515  504
Mandates 2000-2007 2000/24/EC(8) 22.12.99 65% 19.07.00/24.07.00 (11) 19 460 18 784 18 709 11 390 11 853
The Baltic Sea basin of Russia 2001/777/EC(9) 06.11.01 100% 06.05.02/07.05.02  100  85  85  74  78
Russia, Belarus, Rep. Of Moldova and 
Ukraine2005/48/EC(10) 22.12.04 100% 21.12.05/09.12.05  500  230  230  76  80
Mandate 2007-2013 2006/1016/EC(12) 19.12.06 65% 01.08.07/29.08.07 (13) 25 800 11 928 13 124 3 041 4 366
TOTAL 67 702 50 209 51 330 19 223 20 832
(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78.
       By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance with the Council De cision of 7 October 1975.  
(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 5 497 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4)  Poland, Hungary.
(5) Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.
(6) Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.(7) Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.
(8) South-eastern Neighbours, Mediterranean countries, Latin America and Asia, Republic of South Africa, Special action Turkey,  as amended (2005/47/EC).
(9) A special lending action for selected environmental projects in the Baltic Sea basin of Russia under the Northern Dimension .
(10) A special lending action for certain types of projects in Russia, Belarus,Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
(11) Restated and amended in 2005.
(12) Pre-Accession countries, Neighbourhood and Partnership countries, Asia and Latin America, Republic of South Africa.
(13) The amount decided of EUR 27 800 million is broken down into a basic ceilin g of a fixed maximum amount of EUR 25 800 million and an o ptional mandate of EUR 2 000 million
(use to be decided in the context of ongoing mid-term review).
 
EN 12   EN 1.3. Evolution of risk 
1.3.1.  Situation of loans to Member States 
The total risk towards Member States has increased during the first semester 2010. Two 
additional tranches were disbursed for a to tal amount of EUR 1.500 billion (EUR 500 million 
for Latvia and EUR 1 billion for Romania). Both tranches will be reimbursed in 2019.  
BoP loan disbursements are planned up to 201 2. Hungary will reimburse in 2011 its first 
tranche of EUR 2 billion disbursed in December 2008 (included in Graph A1). 
Two other tranches of EUR 1 billion for Latvia  and EUR 2 billion for Hungary, disbursed in 
2009 will be reimbursed in 2014. Three additio nal tranches totalling EUR 4.2 billion 
disbursed during the second semester 2009 will be reimbursed in 2015 and 2016. 
Graph A1: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget based on the amounts (capital and 
interest) due under operations (MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30.06.20103 
to Member States  (EUR million). 
- 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Euratom
MFA
EIB
BOP
                                                 
3 As of 31 December 2009, the 2010 annual risk for Member States was EUR 890 million. 
 
EN 13   EN 1.3.2.  Situations of loans to third countries 
At 30 June 2010, a total of EUR 3 517 million re mained to be disbursed by the EIB under the 
EUR 20 060 million EIB external lending mandate for 2000– 2007: 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
30.06.2010***  
Mediterranean 6 520 6 260 1 126
South-Eastern Neighbours** 10 235 7 338 1 605
Asia, Latin America 2 480 2 124  71
South Africa  825  824  108
Member States* 2 763  608
20 060 19 309 3 517
* EUR 2,763 million for Member States are not included (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia).
** The ceiling includes Terra Turkey and Special Action Turkey.
*** Signatures up to 31.07.2008Table A5: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2000 - 2007 
 
At the same date, an amount of EUR 8 930 million remained to be disbursed out of signatures 
made under the EIB external mandate for 2007-2013. 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
30.06.2010  
A. Pre-Accession Countries 8 700 5 793 4 154
B. Neighbourhood and partnership countries 12 400 4 608 3 234
C. Asia and Latin America 3 800 2 241 1 114
D. South Africa  900  483  428
  
25 800 13 124 8 930
*the current mandate only covers the period until 31 October 2011.Table A6: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2007 - 2013*
 
Graph A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the B udget based on the amounts (capital and 
interest) due under all opera tions (MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30.06.2010 to 
third countries  (EUR million). 
 
EN 14   EN 05001000150020002500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Euratom
MFA
EIB
 
Graph A3 presents the result of simulations  of disbursement scen arios under the mandates 
preceding  the current EIB external mandate, as we ll as under the current mandate, established 
for the period 1 February 2007—31 October 2011 by Decision No 633/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. The rhythm of disbursements has a strong impact on 
the amount of the provisi oning of the Fund in futu re years. The simulatio n is therefore subject 
to a non-negligible degree of uncertainty.  
Graph A3: Estimated outstanding amount co vered by the Fund fr om 2010 to 2016 (EUR 
million).  
 
EN 15   EN 12 00014 50017 00019 50022 00024 50027 00029 50032 00034 50037 00039 50042 00044 500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Euratom
MFA
EIB
 
1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees 
1.4.1.  Borrowing/lending operations 
The EU borrows on the financial market an d on-lends the proceeds (back-to-back) to 
Member States (balance of payments), third co untries (macro-financial assistance) or utility 
companies (Euratom). 
The loan repayments are scheduled to match th e repayments of the borrowings due from the 
EU. If the recipient of the loan is in default,  the Commission will first draw on its own cash 
resources to ensure a timely repayment of the EU borrowing on the contractual due date. 
Should the amounts needed for the necessary ca sh coverage exceed, in a certain period or 
date, the available Commission's treasury balances, the Commission would, in accordance with Article 12 of Council Regulation 1150/2000
4, draw on additional cash resources from the 
Member States in order to fulfil its legal obligations towards its lenders.  
In the case of BoP loans, where reimburse d amounts can be very high, the beneficiary 
Member States are requested to deposit the am ounts due at the European Central Bank seven 
business days in advance of  the contractual due date. This gives enough time for the 
Commission and Member States to  provide for the cash advance to ensure timely repayment 
in case of default. 
                                                 
4 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 (OJ L 130, 31.5.2000, p.1-12) 
implementing Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom of 7 June 2007 on the system of European 
Communities' own resources (OJ L 163, 23.6.2007, p. 17-21). 
 
EN 16   EN In a second step, the trea sury situation would be regularised as follows: 
Euratom and MFA loans: a) if the payment delay reaches three mont hs after the due date, the Commission draws 
on the Fund to cover for the default and obt ain the necessary funds to replenish its 
treasury.  
b) the Commission might also need to draw  on the Budget, most likely by means of a 
transfer to provide the co rresponding Budget line under ar ticle "01 04 01 European 
Union guarantees for Union and Euratom borrowing operations and for EIB lending 
operations "with the necessary appropriations needed to cover the default. This method is used when there are insufficien t appropriations in the Fund or if the 
borrower is a Member State
5 and the transfers are likely to require advance 
authorisation by the bud getary authority  
c) by the re-use of recovered funds, if any. Balance of Payments (BoP) loans
: 
a) by the re-use of funds from late payments b) the Commission may also need to propos e a transfer or an  Amending Budget to 
budget the cash advance under the corres ponding budget line "01 04 01 01 European 
Union guarantee for Union borrowings for balance-of-payments support". 
1.4.2.  Guarantees given to third parties 
The EU provides a guarantee in respect of financing granted by the EIB under the external 
mandates. When the recipient of a guaranteed lo an fails to make a payment on the due date, 
the EIB asks the Commission to pay the amounts owed by the defaulting entity in accordance 
with the relevant guarantee agreement. The guar antee call must be paid within three months 
of receiving the EIB's request, either from th e Fund or directly from the Budget (should the 
resources of the Fund be insufficient). The EIB ad ministers the loan with  all the care required 
by good banking practice and is obliged to seek  to recover the payments due after the 
guarantee has been activated. 
Since the entry into force of the Regulation establishing th e Guarantee Fund for external 
actions
6, the provisions of the Agreement between th e EU and the EIB on management of the 
Fund state that, after the EIB calls in the guarant ee in the event of a default, the Commission 
must authorise the Bank to withdraw the corresponding amounts from the Fund within three 
months. 
If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the guarantee 
is the same as for borrowing /lending operations, see 1.4.1 above. 
                                                 
5 Regarding the loans and loans guaranteed to accession  countries, they were covered by the Guarantee 
Fund and remained outstanding after the date of acce ssion. From that date, they ceased to be external 
actions of the Union and are therefor e covered directly by the Budget. 
6 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 480/2009 of 25 May 2009 establishing a Guarantee Fund for 
external actions (codified version), the "Guarantee Fund Regulation" (OJ L 145, 10.6.2009, p.10). 
 
EN 17   EN 1.4.3.  Activation of Budget guarantees 
If a borrower defaults on an EIB financing op eration guaranteed by  the Budget, the EU 
guarantee is called upon at the earliest three months after the date on which payment has 
fallen due. The EU will act within three months of receiving such a letter from the EIB calling 
for the guarantee to be activated, authorising th e EIB to take the corre sponding amounts from 
the Fund if the beneficiary is a non-Member State or to receive payment from the Budget if 
the beneficiary is a Memb er State (see 1.4.2 above). 
For loans granted by the EU or Euratom, default interest is owed by loan beneficiaries for the 
time between the date on which cash resources are made available by the Budget and the date 
of repayment to the Budget. For EIB loans, de fault interest is calculated during the period 
between the due date of a defaulted loan inst alment and the date of receipt of the cash 
resources by the EIB from the Commission. From the date of payment to the EIB, default 
interest is due to the Commission. 
 
EN 18   EN 2. COUNTRY -RISK EVALUATION  
Third countries representing important risk s to the Budget in 2010, notably through EU 
macro-financial assistance, Euratom loans or gu aranteed EIB projects related financing, and 
either categorised as “severely indebted” accordi ng to criteria set by the World Bank or facing 
significant imbalances in their external or debt  situation, are included in the country risk 
evaluation . The evaluation presented below comp rises short analyses and tables of risk 
indicators. 
Explanatory notes for country-risk indicators 
Standard footnotes  
1) Includes only EU and EIB loans (outst anding disbursements) to CEEC, NIS and 
MED. 
2) The higher the ranking number, the lowe r the creditworthiness of the country. 
 Countries are rated on a scale of zero to  185; 185 represents the highest risk of 
default. A given country may improve its ra ting and still fall in the ranking if the 
average global rating for all rated countries improves. 
Abbreviations and English words used in tables  
S&P Standard and Poor's 
CCFF Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility 
EFF Extended Fund Facility FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product SBA Stand-By Arrangement STF Systemic Transformation Facility est. Estimates m EUR EUR million bn USD USD billion n.a. not available 
 
 
EN 19   EN 2.1. Candidate countries 
2.1.1.  Turkey 
The Turkish economy has recovered strongly, and is forecasted to grow by 7.5% in 2010 after 
a dramatic contraction by 4.7% in 2009. A double- digit growth of imports combined with a 
domestic credit boom fuelled private consump tion and, in particular, investment. Headline 
inflation eased after spiking 10%  in early 2010 and is expected  to reach 8.5% by the end of 
the year. Given these favourable inflation dynamics  and an expected moderation in growth in 
the second half of 2010, the central bank is expect ed not to alter its re latively loose monetary 
policy stance. On the back of th e strong GDP growth, the fiscal deficit has narrowed to about 
4% of GDP in 2010, and the public debt stock ha s come down by almost 3 % in the previous 
year and amounts to 42.5% of GDP at the end of 2010. The trad e and current deficits have 
increased substantially in 2010 as imports in creased by more than 15% in volume and the 
terms of trade worsened on higher oil and commod ity prices. In the first nine months of 2010, 
gross FDI inflows fell by one third to 0.8% of GDP. Turkey's external debt declined by 0.8% 
in 2010 and currently amounts to about 31% of GD P. Private external debt represents two 
thirds of the total debt and is also broadly st able. International reserv es fell to EUR 80 billion, 
and still cover about 5 months of imports. In large part as a result of the improved risk-
appetite for emerging countries, the domestic currency appreciated sign ificantly against the 
USD and the EUR since mid-2010.  
Country-risk indicators: Turkey 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 0,7 -4,7 7,5
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 11,0 14,0 12,0
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 10,1 6,5 8,5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP ) -2,2 -6,7 -4,0
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 119.607 102.519 110.000
Current account balance (% of GDP) -5,6 -2,3 5,7
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 10723 4374 3700
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) m EUR 79235 78167 80000Months' imports of goods and services 5,0 5,0 5,0
Exchange rate (end of period) (TL per EUR) 1,90 2,20 2,00
       External debt
External debt (end of period) (m EUR) 208.203 203.000 198.700
External debt/GDP  (end of period) (%) 28,1 32,9 31,0Debt service/exports of goods (%) 29,0 35,6 32,6Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 4848 5705 6345
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 34,5 35,1 34,9EU exposure/external debt (%) 3,2 4,0 3,2
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 5,6 8,0 5,8
IMF arrangements
Type SBA none none 
(Date) (until 05/08)
On track yes
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Ba3 Ba2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- BB
Euromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09 09/09 03/10
Position in the ranking (2) 69    76 68     67 67     59
(number of countries) (185)   (186) (186)   (186) (186)   (186)
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes .  
 
EN 20   EN 2.2. Potential candidate countries  
2.2.1.  Serbia 
Serbia's GDP increased by 1.2% in the first half  of year and its growth should reach 1.5% for 
the whole year 2010 (according to the IMF-supported programme ). The main impetus to 
growth came from vigorous export activity fuelle d by the gradual economic revival in Serbia's 
main trading partners and by the depreciating dinar. Domestic demand remained largely 
subdued, which kept inflation on a downward trend in the first half of the year. However, 
inflationary tensions were si nce rekindled by rising food prices  and the dinar depreciation. 
Thus, the end-year inflation is expected to  exceed the upper bound of th e 4-8% target range 
set by the National Bank of Serb ia (NBS). Foreign exchange reserves with the NBS remained 
largely stable at over EUR 10 billion, which is sufficient to cover 10 months of imports. 
However, surplus on the current transfers account was considerably lower and deficit on the income account substantially higher than a year ago. Also, financial and capital flows 
remained modest, with FDI and other investment  markedly lower in comparison with a year 
earlier. While foreign currency inflows have b een largely insufficient to cover the current 
account deficit, Serbia’s foreign debt continue d to increase. At the end of July 2010, gross 
external debt had risen by around EUR 0.5 billion since the beginning of the year close to 
80% of projected GDP.  
Despite significant cuts in capital expendi ture and the constrai nts imposed on current 
expenditure throughout 2010 (including the nomina l freeze in civil servants' salaries and 
pensions), the budgetary gap is to widen to 4.8% of GDP by the end of the year. Public debt 
soared in 2010 to some 38% of GDP at end-Oc tober, mostly on the back of foreign debt 
reaching almost 70% of the total. 
 
EN 21   EN Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5,5 -3,0 2.1 (Q3)
Unemployment (average) (%  labour force) 14,7 17,4 19.5 (Q1)
Consumer price inflation (average) (% change) 8,6 6,6 4.1 (Q2)
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2,5 -4,2 -2.7 (Oct)
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (m EUR) 10157 8478 5300 (Q3)
Current account balance (% of GDP) -17,1 -5,7 -6.2 (Q3)
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 1824 1372 595 (Q3)
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) m EUR 9110 12027 9217 (Q2)
 Months' imports of goods and services 7,7 9,6 7,9
Exchange rate (end of period) (TD per USD) 88,60 95,90 106.34 (Q3)
External debt
External debt ( end of period) (m EUR) 21725 22713 23200 (Q3)
External debt/GDP (end of period) (%) 63,6 72,3 78,8
Debt service/exports of goods (%) 42,8 57,7 67,1
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) 2.161           NA NA
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m EUR) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1193,8 1317,9 1507
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 8,5 8,1 8,3EU exposure/external debt (%) 5,6 5,8 6,5 (Q3)
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 16,1 15,5 28,4 (Q3)
IMF arrangements
Type - ,,
EUR 2,97 bn ,,
EUR 2,97 bn 
(Date) -()
2009()
2009
On track - yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- (negative) BB- (stable) BB- (stable)
Euromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09 09/09   03/10
Position in the ranking (2) 88    126 122   109     109    76
(number of countries) (185)   (186) (186)   (186) (186)   (186)
(1) (2)   See explanatory notesCountr y-risk indicators: Serbia 2008 2009 2010
 
 
EN 22   EN 2.3. Mediterranean partners 
2.3.1.  Egypt 
The Egyptian economy performed well during the global crisis. GDP growth slowed down, to 
4.7% in 2009 but accelerated again to 5.2% in 2010. Inflation fell to 12.0% in 2010 (18.3% in 
2008). However, this still high leve l of inflation and upward infla tionary pressures in view of 
the rising global commodity prices and E gypt's high dependence on basic food imports 
(wheat, corn) entail a risk. As  a reaction to the increasing inflation, monetary policy is 
expected to be tightened in the coming months. Despite the cr isis the deterioration in the 
fiscal deficit was limited. The deficit was 8.2% of GDP in fiscal year 2009-2010, and the 
government plans to reduce it to 7% of GD P in 2010-2011. The general government debt was 
on a steeply declining path when the crisis started but this tre nd was interrupted by the crisis. 
Gross government debt currently stands at 73% of GDP. The curre nt account balance 
deteriorated to -2.0% of GDP in 2010 (-1.4 % in 2008). Revenues from tourism, private 
transfers, remittances and the Suez Canal no longer compensated the trade deficit. On the 
positive side, the external debt position improved; external debt as a percentage of GDP decreased from almost 20% in 2008 to 14% in  2010. During the global crisis the exchange 
rate vis-à-vis the US dollar was managed and kept roughly stable. Lower capital inflows and 
foreign exchange interventions arrested the ra pid increase in foreig n exchange reserves. 
Upcoming elections in 2010 (Parliamentary) and 2011 (Presidential) are likely to affect the 
pace of implementation of reforms, in pa rticular for fiscal tightening measures. 
Country-risk indicators: Egypt2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 7,2 4,7 5,2
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 8,4 9,4 8,9Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 18,3 12,5 12,0
G eneral government balance (% of GDP)
-7,5 -6,9 -8,2
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m USD) 56.567 48.970 47.436
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1,4 0,5 -2,0
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 12.124 6.772 5.781Official reserves, including gold (end of period) m EUR 23,0 24,8 26,0
 Months' imports of goods and services 6,7 5,8 5,8
Exchange rate (end of period) ( per USD) 5,3 5,6 5,7
External debt
External debt  (end of period) (m USD) 32.616 29.656 30.812
External debt/GDP (end of period) (%) 19,8 15,8 14,2Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 5,5 10,6 5,2
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (%) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 2141 2241 2333,7
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 15,2 13,8 12,8EU exposure/external debt (%) 8,8 5,2 6,2
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 5,3 6,6 6,0
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date) ---
On track -- -
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+Euromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09 09/09    03 /10
   Position in the ranking (2) 68   68 70   70 70     69
   (number of countries) (185)   (186) (186)   (186) (186)   (186) 
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
 
EN 23   EN 2.3.2.  Lebanon 
The Lebanese economy had a good performance in 2009. Real GDP growth reached 6.9% and 
is expected to remain at th e same level in 2010. The financ ial sector proved remarkably 
resilient to the uncertain environment, with  a government of national unity only formed 
towards the end of 2009. Consumer price in flation came down significantly from 2008 to 
2009, from 10.8% to 1.2%, but is expected to rise to 3.7% in 2010. The government deficit 
remained high, at around 8% in 200 9 and is expected to remain near this leve l in 2010. Total 
public expenditure increased by  around 15%, of which a large pa rt is going to service the 
public debt. International support helped alle viate the pressure on public finances. This 
included the first tranche of grants and loans (EUR 15 and EUR 25 million respectively) under the EU macro financial assistance (MFA) facility (payments were made in December 
2008 and May 2009 and will be primarily used for debt reduction).  
Net public debt to GDP remained at around 1 50% of GDP, while the external debt-to-GDP 
ratio (including non-resident deposits) stayed at around 160% of GDP. Trade volumes 
decelerated from the beginning of 2009 onwards, mirroring the slowdown in major trading 
partners, notably Arab countri es and the EU, which account for around 50 and 17 percent of 
Lebanese exports, respectively. Persistent hi gh interest rate spr eads to international 
benchmarks kept financing costs up. The curre nt account deficit rema ins high but broadly 
stabilised in 2009, at around 11% of GDP and is expected to  improve slightly in 2010. 
Lowering the government debt-to-GDP ratio rema ins the top medium-term priority to reduce 
Lebanon's macro-financial vulnerabilities. The high debt levels could produce unsustainable 
debt dynamics should the economy suffer a negative shock, while the high interest burden (45 percent of revenues) crowds out productive pu blic spending, limiting the economy's growth 
potential. About half of the debt is denominated in foreign currency. 
 
EN 24   EN Country-risk indicators: Lebanon 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 9,3 6,9 7,2
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) n.a. n.a. n.a.Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 10,8 1,2 3,7
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -9,6 -8,1 -8,7
Balance of payments
Exports of goods (m USD) 5.251 4.716 5.069
Current account balance (% of GDP) -11,4 -11,3 -10,5Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 2,6 3,7 3,9Official reserves, including gold (end of period) m EUR 19,3 28,6 32,2Months' imports of goods and services 7,9 10,3 10,3Exchange rate (end of period) ( per USD) 1.507,5 1.507,5 1.507,5
External debt
External debt  (end of period) (m USD) 30.611 31.892 34.440
External debt/GDP (end of period, includes non-resident deposits) (%) 172,0 171,0 160,00Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 106,3 121,4 160,0Arrears (on both interest and principal) (%) no no noDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 508 539 603
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 3,6 3,3 3,3
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0,7 0,6 1,4EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 13,4 16,0 14,6
IMF arrangements
Type EPCA II
(Date) adopted 3-11
On track yes (concluded June 2009)
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B3 B3 B2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B- B- B-Euromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09 09/09   03/10
Position in the ranking (2) 127   134 102   80 80   82
(number of countries) (185)   (186) (186)   (186) (186)   (186)
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
 
EN 25   EN 2.3.3.  Tunisia 
Despite the global financial and economic cris is, the performance of the Tunisian economy 
remained overall robust in 2009. Real GDP growth slowed dow n to 3% in 2009 (4.6% in 
2008), but is expected to accelerate again in th e near future. On the back of the weaker 
economic activity, consumer price inflation fell from 5 % in 2008 to 3.5% in 2009. The country risks moving back to a situation of re latively high inflation, like it did in the years 
before the global crisis. Due to the lack of ba sic agriculture and the significant weight of food 
items in the average consumption basket, Tuni sia is very exposed to  the global commodity 
market developments. The fiscal deficit increas ed significantly during th e crisis, from 0.8% in 
2008 to 5% of GDP in 2010, underlining a need for serious fiscal consolid ation. However, in 
comparison with many of its neighbours, the public  debt stock is not excessively high (below 
50% of GDP). Tunisia's trade deficit is hi gh, at 3-4% of GDP, as it has no strong export 
position in the world economy. This deficit is  only just compensated by the inflow of 
remittances and FDI. Remaining committed in the overall monetary policy framework to 
inflation targeting over the medium term, the T unisian dinar has been pegged to a basket of 
currencies in which the euro holds the largest sh are. This helped stabilise the exchange rate 
during the global financial crisis. Gross reserves are expected to  cover hardly six months of 
imports by the end of 2010.  
Country-risk : Tunisia 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 4,6 3,0 3,4
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 14,2 13,3 14,0
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 5,0 3,5 4,5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP)
Balance of payments
Exports of goods (m USD) 19.184 14.419 16.106
Current account balance ( % of GDP) -4,2 -3,1 -3,5
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 2.300 1.300 1.296
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) m EUR 6,1 8,1 8,1Months' imports of goods and services 4,1 5,6 5,9
Exchange rate (end of period) ( per USD) 1,31 1,35 1,42
External debt
External debt  (end of period) (m USD) 20.776 19.596 18.764
External debt/GDP (end of period) (%) 50,7 49,5 47,8Debt service/exports of goods (%) 11,0 22,4 17,2
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (%) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1683 1900 1952
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 12,0 11,7 10,8
EU exposure/external debt (%) 11,3 13,8 8,5EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 12,2 18,1 14,9
External debt
Type no no no
(Date) -- -
On track -- -
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa2 Baa2 Baa2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB BBB BBB Euromoney 03/08  09/08 03/09   09/09 09/09  03/10   Position in the ranking (2) 62    64   53       52 52      71
   (number of countries) (185)) (186)   (186)  (186)   (186)  (186)
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
 
EN 26   EN 2.3.4.  Morocco 
The direct impact of the global crisis on Morocco has been limited. With little financial 
exposure to international markets, strong public  finances, resilient domestic demand and an 
exceptional crop year, GDP growth moderated only to 4.9% in 2009, compared to 5.6% in 
2008. The economic growth is expected to fall further to 4.2% in 2010. In line with the slight slow down of GDP growth, consumer price in flation slowed down from 3.7 % in 2008 to 1.% 
in 2009. However, the rebound of global dema nd in 2010 put upward pressure on global 
commodity prices, which were transmitted into higher imported inflation in Morocco in 2010 (at 2.5%). This inflation increase originates mainly from higher energy prices. The public 
balance recorded a deficit of 2.1% of GDP in 2009 up to 3.9% in 2010, after two surplus years 
(0.2% in 2007) and (0.4% in 2008). Public fi nance reforms in the ye ars before the global 
crisis helped to create fiscal room and kept  the public debt to GDP ratio below 60% during 
2008-10. The continuation of reforms will help to keep the public debt also in the medium term at a sustainable level. The external posit ion of Morocco improved during the crisis years. 
The current account deficit narrowed from 6.4% of GDP in 2008 to 3.8% of GDP in 2010. 
The foreign exchange reserves increased from EUR 16 billion to EUR 18 billion in this same period. Foreign debt is mainly l ong-term so that no direct risk is  associated with the external 
debt position. Main vulnerabili ty in the Moroccan economy is its weak pension system, and 
an increasingly aging population (ratio of re tirees to the active popu lation is expected to 
double or treble by 2060).  
 
EN 27   EN Country-risk : Morocco 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5,6 4,9 4,2
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 9,6 9,1 9,8
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 3,7 1,0 2,5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 0,4 -2,1 -3,9
Balance of payments
Exports of goods (m USD) 10.690 11.926 15.146
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6,4 -3,3 -3,8Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 2,0 0,7 2,4
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)  m EUR 19,2 21,8 21,4
Months' imports of goods and services 7,5 6,9 6,7Exchange rate (end of period) ( per USD)
External debt
External debt (end of period) (m USD) 16.174 17.815 20.544
External debt/GDP (end of period) (%) 27,2 27,1 27,3Debt service/exports of goods (%) 25,5 28,5 26,5
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (%) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1929 2224 2366
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 13,7 13,7 13,0
EU exposure/external debt (%) 8,6 8,7 9,4EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 25,1 26,9 19,2
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date) ---
On track -- -
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BBB-Euromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09 09/09   03/10Position in the ranking (2) 66      63 63    54 54    57
(number of countries) (185)   (186) (186)    (186) (186)    (186) 
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
2.3.5.  Syria 
During the global crisis, GDP grow th in Syria remained at 5%. The external shocks in the 
economy hardly affected the economy due to low degree of financial and trade integration of 
the country. The lower global commodity prices  improved the terms of trade conditions of 
Syria and consumer price inflation decreased by 8 percentage points in the period 2008 to 
2010 (from 15.7% to 7.9%). Economic activity was supported by fiscal stimulus packages. As 
a consequence, the fiscal deficit increased from 2.5% of GDP in 2008 to 9.0% in 2009. High 
oil export revenues in the past helped keep th e external debt position at around 13% of GDP. 
However, the public domestic debt position increas ed during the crisis years to above 30% of 
GDP. 
In view of the low diversification of economic activity and the almost exhausted oil reserves, 
the country risks a gloomier public finance an d balance of payment position in the medium-to 
long-term. The further phasing out  of government subsidies on en ergy and privatisations of 
state companies can help the fiscal consolidatio n. The exchange rate regime is still loosely 
pegged to the IMF's special drawing right s. A further opening of the economy is 
commendable. The inflow of FDI is still low at not even USD 2 billion (equalling 2-3% of 
GDP). The only positive factor in the developmen t of the current account was an increase in 
the balance of services due to contin ued growth of the tourism sector.  
 
EN 28   EN Country-risk indicators: Syria 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 4,3 5,0 4,0
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 10,9 8,5 8,3Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 15,7 3,8 7,9
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2,5 -9,0 -6,2
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m USD) 19.278 16.678 18.451
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1,4 -2,8 -2,4Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 1.627 1.514 1.850
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) m EUR 11,6 12,7 12,9
Months' imports of goods and services 9,4 10,7 9,4
Exchange rate (end of period) ( per USD) 46,0 45,5 46,3
External debt
External debt  (end of period) (m USD) 7.112 7.467 7.916
External debt/GDP (end of period) (%) 14,5 13,9 13,6Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 1,0 1,2 1,1Arrears (on both interest and principal) (%) no no noDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 536,1 762,8 823,9
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 3,8 4,7 4,5
EU exposure/external debt (%) 13,1 7,1 8,5EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 4,4 6,6 5,5
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date) ---
On track -- -
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none noneEuromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09 09/09   03/10
   Position in the ranking (2) 116   115 163    149 149    140
   (number of countries) (185)  (186) (186)  (186) (186)  (186)
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
2.4. Other countries 
2.4.1.  South Africa 
Following a contraction in GDP by 1.8% in 2009, South Af rica's economy has been 
recovering strongly since the f ourth quarter of 2009, with GDP growth in the current year 
likely to exceed 3%. The recovery has been led by export-oriented, primarily commodities, and has been supported by strongly countercyclical fiscal policie s in 2009/10. The fiscal year 
2010/11 budget, however, projects a clear improvement  in structural balances in the near and 
medium-term.  
The South African financial sect or weathered the global financia l crisis quite well. The Rand, 
which had depreciated strongly, has continued al ong the appreciating trend that started in 
early 2009. This has brought it back to the le vel observed at the beginning of 2008. The 
current account deficit, which had reached more than 7% of GDP in 2007 and 2008, has 
declined strongly to 4% in 2009 and is likely to remain below 5% also in 2010; foreign 
exchange reserves are up from USD 34.1 billi on in 2008 to USD 44 billion as of October 
2010. External debt is rising from a low level a nd is expected to be financed by continuing 
capital inflows. 
 
EN 29   EN Country-risk indicators: South Africa 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 3,1 -1,7 -209,0
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 13,5 14,3 16,2Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 11,5 7,1 5,5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -0,33 -5,1 -5,7
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 99,4 79,2 92,4
Current account balance (en % du PIB) -7,1 -3,9 -4,2
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m  €) 8084,7 9667,5 11977,9Official reserves, including gold (end of period)       bn USD 34,2 36,2 41,8
 Months of imports of goods and services 3,8 5,3 5,1
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (rands per €) 12,1 11,7 9,8
External debt
External debt  ( end of period) (m €) 52824,9 51515,9 57810,0
External debt/GDP (%) 27,9 25,0 23,9Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 9,4 10,9 10,8Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m €)
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 636              743                828
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 4,5               4,6                 4,6
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1,3               1,3                 1,2
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0,9               1,4                 1,1
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date) -- -
On track -- -
IMF arrangements
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa1 A3 A3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB+ BBB+ BBB+Euromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09 09/09   03/10Position in the ranking (2) 55      54 50     47 47     47
(number of countries) (185)  (186) (186)  (186) (186)  (186)
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
2.4.2.  Brazil 
The Brazilian economy weathered the interna tional financial crisis well; against the 
background of a very competitive exchange rate, economic growth contracted much less than 
in other countries (by 0.2% in 2009). On the back of sound fundamentals and strong commodity demand by emerging economies, growth  in 2010 is likely to reach 7.4%, due to 
strong domestic demand and recovery in exports. However, with domestic demand driving up imports even more, the current account deficit is  likely to rise to 2.5% of GDP in 2010 (1.5% 
in 2009). 
Given the loose monetary policy environment, with low interest rates in the advanced 
economies, Brazil now faces the challenge of  managing huge capital inflows, which are 
attracted by higher yields in Brazil and better grow th prospects. This is putting pressure on the 
Brazilian currency to appreciate even more agai nst the US dollar. As a consequence, Brazil 
has increased the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) which applies to foreign investments in 
Brazilian financial and capital markets: on 20 October 2009 the rate was raised to 2% and 
then, to 6% on 18 October 2010. However, inflati on is now running above the official target 
of 4.5% for 2010. Like other emerging economies, Brazil now faces the considerable challenge of fighting inflation, wh ile not inducing additional capita l inflows. In the absence of 
 
EN 30   EN another abrupt change in risk aversion in glob al capital markets, Brazil is unlikely to face 
problems with rolling over its – relatively lo w - external debt (a round 13 ½% of GDP).  
Country-risk indicators: Brazil 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.1 -0.2 7.5
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 7.9 8.1 7.2
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 5.6 4.9 5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -3.5 1.7
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 49.5 38.8 44.6
Current account balance (en % du PIB) -1.7 -1.5 -1.5
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m  €) 30064 19906 33136
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)        bn USD 194 229 276Months of imports of goods and services 22 34 29
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (reais per €) 2.7 2.8 2.8
External debt
External debt  (end of period) (m €) 557384 571447 521597
External debt/GDP (%) 13.8 13.2 12.1
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 19 28 28Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m  €) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 621 691 884
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 4.4 4.3 4.9
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0.3 0.3 0.1EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0.4 0.9 2.4
IMF arrangements
Type No
(Date) 22/01/2010
On track 2 years
Indicators of markets' perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Baa3 Baa3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB- BBB- BBB-
Euromoney 03/08   09/08   03/09   09/09 09/09   03/10   Position in the ranking (2) 63    60 51   48   48    51
   (number of countries) (185)    (186) (186)   (186) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 31   EN 2.4.3.  Mexico 
Given its high dependence on developments in the US, Mexico was particularly strongly 
impacted by the recession in the US since 2007 a nd the collapse in global trade observed in at 
the end of 2008. Furthermore, as Mexico re lies on remittances from abroad, which dropped 
drastically, private consumption also declined fu rther. Growth started to recover in the second 
quarter of 2009, but GDP growth for 2009 was sharply negative (-6.5%).  
Developments in 2010 have been positive, with  a weak first quarter followed by a strong 
expansion in the second and third quarter, grow th starting to be driven by domestic demand, 
both private consumption and investment. GDP growth  for the year, as a whole, is expected to 
reach between 4.5% and 5%. Despite the strong depreciation of the Mexican peso, from an 
average exchange rate of 11.1 pesos to the US D to 13.5 pesos, consumer price inflation has 
moderately increased from a ra te of 5.1% in 2008 to  5.3% in 2009. In 2010, inflation is likely 
to have declined below 5% on the whole year . Foreign exchange reserves increased from 
USD 36 billion in 2009 to USD 42 billion in 2010. The current account deficit should remain below 1% of GDP and external debt, which amo unts to 20.7% of GDP, is expected to decline 
in the current year, confirming the relatively sound external position. In April, the IMF and 
Mexico renewed the USD 48 billion Flexible Credit Line Agreement (FCLA), although the 
first FCLA agreed upon in April 2009 had never to be activated. 
Country-risk indicators: Mexico 2008 2009 2010
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 1,3 -6,5 4,9
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 3,9 5,4 5,0Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 55 , 2 4 , 2
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -0,1 -4,8 -3,6
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 309,6 244,6 297,6
Current account balance (en % du PIB) -1,5 -0,6 -1,1
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m  €) 17021 10399 17500
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)       bn USD 82,14 78,76 98,75Months of imports of goods and services 2,9 3,6 3,6Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (pesos per €) 16,3 18,7 18,7
External debt
External debt  ( end of period) (m €) 39319 63389 74430
External debt/GDP (%) 5,6 10,8 9,6
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 2,2 4,3 3,9
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m €)
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 77,4 74,6 59,1
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 0,55 0,52 0,33
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0,05 0,05 0,06
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0,04 0,05 0,02
IMF arrangements
Type FCLC FCLC
(Date) 17 April 2009 17 April 2010
On track expired (not used expired (not used)
Indicators of markets' perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa1 Baa1 Baa1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB+ BBB BBBEuromoney 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09 09/09   03/10Position in the ranking (2) 51     51 48    50 50      50
(number of countries) (185)   (186) (186)   (186) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes