ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(77)218
Vol.1977/0082

Disclaimer
Conformément aurèglement(CEE,Euratom)n°354/83duConseildu1erfévrier1983
concernantl'ouvertureaupublicdesarchiveshistoriquesdelaCommunauté économique
européenneetdelaCommunautéeuropéennedel'énergieatomique(JOL43du15.2.1983,
p.1),telquemodifiéparlerèglement(CE,Euratom)n°1700/2003du22septembre2003
(JOL243du27.9.2003,p.1),cedossierestouvertaupublic.Lecaséchéant,lesdocuments
classifiésprésentsdanscedossierontétédéclassifiésconformément àl'article5dudit
règlement.
InaccordancewithCouncilRegulation(EEC,Euratom)No354/83of1February1983
concerningtheopeningtothepublicofthehistoricalarchivesoftheEuropeanEconomic
CommunityandtheEuropeanAtomicEnergyCommunity(OJL43,15.2.1983,p.1),as
amendedbyRegulation(EC,Euratom)No1700/2003of22September2003(OJL243,
27.9.2003,p.1),thisfileisopentothepublic.Wherenecessary,classifieddocumentsinthis
filehavebeendeclassified inconformitywithArticle5oftheaforementioned regulation.
InÜbereinstimmung mitderVerordnung(EWG,Euratom)Nr.354/83desRatesvom1.
Februar1983überdieFreigabederhistorischen ArchivederEuropäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft undderEuropäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI.L43vom15.2.1983,
S.1),geändertdurchdieVerordnung(EG,Euratom)Nr.1700/2003vom22.September2003
(ABI.L243vom27.9.2003,S.1),istdieseDateiderÖffentlichkeitzugänglich.Soweit
erforderlich,wurdendieVerschlusssachen indieserDateiinÜbereinstimmung mitArtikel5
dergenanntenVerordnungfreigegeben.

COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(77)218final.
3russels,22June1S77-
CG-XJlflCATION FROMTHECOMMISSION TOTHECOUNCIL
concerningthefollow-uptothe"Feasibility Study"Europe+30
!,
cor.(77)218final.

FolLow-uptotheFeasibility Study
Europe+30
Introduction
Theworldingeneral,andtheCommunityinparticular,haveinthepast
fewyearsbeengoingthroughaperiodofrapidchangeandofcrises,the
energycrisisbeingatypicalexample.
TheCommunityhasaneedtoconsiderandtoanticipatetheconsequences oftfiese
diverseandimportantchanges,todevisealternativeoptionsforcoping
withthem,possiblyeventocontrolsomeoftheireffects.
Theproblemswhichconfrontus,thecausesoftheseproblems,theopportun­
ities,theimpacts,thesideeffects,areoftencomplex,interacting and
remote.TheCommunitymustnotignorethem,norcanitacttotryandsolve
themonlywhenconfronted byanactualcrisis.
ItisfortheCommissiontolookahead,assessnewideasanddevelop-
-τΜ>*
mentsandtoactinadvanceratherthantoreactafterwards.Itmust
proposepoliciesandactivitieswhichtakeaccountofshort,mediumand
longtermdevelopments whichmayaffectthelongterminterestsofthe
Community.
Itwastomeetthisresponsibility morefullyasinitiatorandmotorfor
theelaboration ofCommunitypoliciesthattheCommissiontooktheini­
tiativeinthefieldoflongtermforecastingin1974.
Asafirststep,thefeasibilitystudy"Europe+30"wascommissioned,the
background andreviewofwhichfollows.
Understanding theimportanceofthisactivity,theCommissionisfollowing
uptheReportwithafirstactivepilotstage.ThiswillenabletheCommis­
siontogainfurtherexperienceontheeffectiveness andontheorganisation
ofsuchanactivitybeforedecidingonanypossiblemorepermanentactivity
inthisfield.ThisCommunication describesthereasonsforandorganisation
ofthisfirstpilotstagefollowuptotheEurope+30Report.

1.Back /rround
1.1 Conscious ofthe importance ofalon^-torm vision for the
future prosperity oftheCommunity ,theCouncil ,inits
Resolution of14January 1974*,approved aone-year programme of
research asaninstrument offorecastirg ,assessment andmethodology
intheEuropean Communities .
1.2 Inthis context ,thefeasibility study "Europe +30"wasinitiated
with the object ofproviding answers totwospecific questions :
–"Inthecontext ofthecommon scientific and technological
policy ,should theEuropean Communities undertake amajor
study entitled Europe +30»concerning theforeseeable or
possible developments over thenext thirty years which are
likely toaffect theprogress ofEurope ;and ,ifso,will this
study make itpossible inparticular tocreate aforecasting
instrument which canbeconstantly updated ?"
–"Should theEuropean Communities create their owntechnology
assessment office inanattempt toevaluate inadvance the
effects ofscientific andtechnological development onthe
society andeconomy oftheCommunity ?"
1.3 Thestudy inquestion wasentrusted toaProject Team ,headed by
Lord Kennet ,made upofexperts from alltheMember States
oftheCommunity anddrawn from awide variety ofdisciplines .
TheProject Team wasassisted andsupervised byaProject Board
chaired byLord Kennet .
*)O.J. of29.1.197 ^NoC7/7

3.
1.4 TheFinal Report wascompleted inSeptember 1975 *On
22December 1975 » Commission took note ofthis Report
andtransmitted ittotheCouncil ,theEuropean Parliament ,the
Economic and Social Committee and other interested bodies inthe
Community .
1.5 InNovember 1976 ,Lord Kennet published ,inagreement with theCom­
mission ,apopular edition ofthe report entitled "The Futures of
Europe ".
1.6 TheReport formed theobject ofextensive discussions inthiEuropean
Committee forResearch &Development (CERD )andintheScientific
andTechnical Research Committee (CREST )during 1976 .
1.7InMay 1976 ,further discussions took place onexisting andpotential
forecasting andassessment activities within theCommunity inthe
context oftheMilan Symposium on"Science andTechnology Policy for
theEuropean Communities ".
2. AReview ofthe Report
2.1 Inanswer tothetwoquestions laid down byCouncil ,theReport
concludes that there isaneed for along-range view asanaidto
policy making within theCommunity andthat comprehensive andinte­
grated long-term forecasting isfeasible .Further ,itargues that
technology assessment should beanintegral part ofanyforecasting
activity (Part IIIoftheReport ).
2.2 InPart 1,theReport emphasises theneed andusefulness ofa
long-term forecasting capacity within theEuropean Community .It
elaborates onanumber offactors which have made long-term thinking
anecessary element inthedecision-making process .

4.
Inparticular ,itstresses theneed for anintegrated approach
inthefield offorecasting duetothecomplexity ofmodern society ,
the increasing interrelationship between different policy sectors
andtherapid changes andinstability oftheworld today .Further­
more ,itdemonstrates theneed toelaborate alternative long-term
objectives andpossible lines ofactions inorder toensure a
balanced decision-making process .Italso argues for along-term
forecasting capacity atCommunity level duetothe increasing
interdependence between Member States andbetween theCommunity
and the rest ofthe world .
2.3 TheReport then proceeds toreview andanalyse the large array of
methodological techniques which exist orwhich arebeing continually
developed inthefast-growing field offorecasting .Itmakes a
case forthefeasibility offorecasting ,using anappropriate mix
ofmethods according totheparticular area being investigated .
This section oftheReport provides auseful reference forany
future forecasting activities which maybeundertaken bythe
Community .
2.4 InPart IIoftheReport ,thefollowing sixteen fields were
analysed :climate ,population ,agriculture ,fisheries andforestry ,
health ,social structures andvalues ,education ,science andtech­
nology ,industry ,energy ,material resources ,theenvironment ,
transport ,communications ,economy andfinance ,defence anddisarma­
ment ,politics andinstitutions .
Ineach ofthese fields ,anattempt ismade toshow theusefulness
andtypes ofresults that could beexpected within each policy seotor
andtheresources necessary fortheir effective realization .
Although each sector istreated separately ,three examples aregiven
atthe "beginning ofthis section showing howanumber ofrelated
fields could beintegrated into forecast ,thus providing more global
and comprehensive results .
2.5 Part III oftheReport tackles thesecond question asked ofthe study ,
that oftherole oftechnology assessment .Atatime ofrapid scienti­
ficprogress ,anappreciation ofthelong-term social andenvironmental

5.
consequences oftheapplication ofnewtechnologies isparticularly
important ,especially intheface ofagrowing public awareness of
thepossible negative asoects oftechnological progress .Anincreas­
ingnumber ofcountries arepaying specific attention tothis activity ,
asisdescribed inAnnex IIIoftheReport ,with several specialized
agencies being set uptoadvise national governments inthis field
(e.g. the U.K. 'sProgramme Analysis Unit ).
TheReport argues that given the similar methodological techniques
used inboth technology assessment andlong-term forecasting ,they
should not beseparated ,hut rather treated ,astworelated aspects
ofthewhole question oflong-range thinking .
2.6 Finally ,Part IVoftheReport (seeAnnex fordetails )proposes an
instrument tocarry out long-term forecasting andtechnology assess­
ment atCommunity level .Itrecommends that theinstrmert should have
"build-up period offive years ,producing itsfirst teleonomy *after
five tosixyears .Itsuggests anoptimum size ofpermanentM
qualified staff of75.with 30asanacceptable butminimum number ,W
atanannual cost of5*6MUAafter thefive-year build-up period
(1975 estimates ).
Only 10%oftheresources will ,according totheReport ,bedevoted
tomonitoring andcollecting information (passive -network )and yyjo
contracted out (active network ),while SOfoofthework istobe
carried outin-house bythepermanent staff .
3. Conclusion
3.1 TheCommission welcomes theReport ofLord Kennet and considers it
essential that theCommunity should seriously reflect onitsfuture or
possible futures and actasamotor forfuture developments inthe
world asawhole .Itisavaluable document andprovides asolid basis
'foranyfurther action bytheCommunity inthis field .Itgives a
stimulus tothis relatively young butdeveloping activity and anew
impetus todiscussions onthefuture development oftheCommunity .
*Teleonomy isaconcept which graphically describes arange ofalternativegoals 3ndthepossible policies andmeans necessary toachieve these^nn a
given period .Tnenearer theperiod fixed for agiven goal ,thenarrower
becomes therange of/fc>ossible means .Teleonomy ,intheform ofcones running
inopposite directions ,issimilar inconcept toagronomy inthat itconcern :,
thearranging ofmeans andgoals asopposed toland .
(1)Seepages 224,225ofthe'futures ofEurope' byWayland Kennet
(Cambridge Universitj Press )andpages 10,11ofPart IVoftheEurope +
30Report .
(2)See Annex kofthe Europe +?0Report .

6.
3.2Asafollow-uptotheReport,theCommissionhasconsideredtheprac­
ticalrecommendations oftheEurope+30Report.Therearehoweveranumber
ί
ofconsiderations whichmilitateagainsttheimmediateapplicationof
theReport'srecommendations concerningthecreationofanewinstru­
ment.
3.3Theconsiderations include:
-Theeffectiveness oflong-termforecastsdependsontheirpractical
introduction .inthedecision-making process.Theorganization of
suchactivitiesshouldbeflexibleenoughtoadapttochanging
structureswithinandbetweenCommunityinstitutions andtothe
demandsoftheincreasingly complexdecision-making processes.
Moreexperienceisrequiredtodeterminethemosteffectiveway
ofusingandcarryingoutsuchforecastsbeforebeingcommitted
toamorepermanentandlong-termbody.
-AsisfullydescribedintheReport,thereareavastnumberofbodies
andorganisations withintheCommunityandelsewherewhicharecarrying
outworkinthefieldofforecasting andTechnologyAssessment.There
isnoshortageofresearchinthisfieldwhichisinfactincreasing
inthefaceofagrowing (Jemandforsuchinformation.Whatismissing
atthepresenttimehoweverisacapabilitywhichcananalysethis
massofinformationtodeterminethosefactorswhichmaybeofimpor­
tanceforthefuturedevelopment oftheCommunity.Onthebasisof
theselectionofthisinformation,appropriate Communityscenarios
canbeelaborated,crisesanticipated andalternativelinesofaction
prepared.Makinguseofexistinginformationwillnotonlystimulate
thedevelopment offorecastingactivitieswithintheCommunityandne­
cessitatea.minimalin-housecapacitybutalso'actasavaluablebasis
fordetermining,through.experience,theusesarideffectiveness ofthe
forecastsproduced.
-Further,theCommissionfeelsthat,inthelightofthepresentbud­
getaryconstraints andtheperiodofstaffausteritythattheCommission
isnowfacing,theproposedbudgetwouldbehardtobear.Thebudgetary
considerations mustalsobeseeninthelightoftheReport'sproposed
commitmenttoestablishsuchaninstrumentforaminimumperiodoften
years.

7.
3.4Takingintoaccounttheseconsiderations ,theCommissiondoesnotfeel
thatithasenoughexperienceintheorganisation,application and
implication offorecastingactivitiestoimmediatelysetupthe
instrumentasrecommendedintheReport.Furtherthoughtshouldbegiven
_toquestionsofsize,flexibility andadaptabilitytochangingCommunity
structuresandrelationships beforeembarkingonf">nyambitiouslong-term
commitment ofthisnature.
4.Follow-uptotheEurope+30Report
4.1TheCommissionagreeswiththeimportanceofalong-termviewforthe
futuredevelopment oftheCommunity.Howevergiventheaboveconsidera­
tions,theCommissionproposes,asafirstfollow-uptotheEurope+30
Report,toundertakeaninitialfiveyearpilotphase.
4.2.Activitiesduringthispilotphasewillattempttoensurethemaximum
involvement andcoordination ofthevariouscentresandorganisations
activeinthisfieldofresearchwithintheCommunityandelsewhere.
TheseincludetheCommunity'sownInstitutes,theactivitieswithin
MemberStatesaswellasthoseofinternational organisations and
thirdcountries.
4.3.Furthermore,theCommissionhasproposedinits'Guidelinesfora
CommonPolicyinthefieldofScienceandTechnology-1977-1981 1
afiveyearindirectactionprogrammeonforecastingandAssessment
inthefieldof_ScienceandTechnology(FAST).Thebasicobjective
ofsuchaprogrammewillbetocontributetothedefinitionoflong
termR&Dpriorities.Foracommonscienceandtechnologypolicytobe
coherentandeffective,alongtermlook-outfunctionisessential.
R&Dbydefinitiondealswithmatterswhichwillnotcometofruition
foranumberofyearsandoftenataconsiderablecost.Itisnecessary
,thereforetoanticipatefutureneedsandpossiblecrisessothatthe
appropriateresearchcanbestartednow.R&Dtobeeffectivemustanti­
cipateratherthanreacttoevents.Suchaforecastingandassessment
capabilityshouldthereforehelpanswerthisneed.

8.
4.4 .Theactivities ofthe proposed FAST programme will have acentral role
toplay during this pilot phase ,acting asacatalyst forthedevelopment
offorecasting activities within theCommunity ,coordinating them and
making maximum useoftheinformation monitored andanalysed ,
4.5.Attheendofthis five year pilot phase ,theexperience gained inthe
coordination ofthevarious forecasting activities and intheapplication
oftheresults produced will bereviewed bytheCommission .
This review will then act fisabasis fordetermining
the usefulness ornature ofasecond phase ofthe follow-up tothe
Europe +30Report .
The Commi ssion isinvited toagree tothetransmission ofthe above Communication
totheEuropean Parliament andtoCouncil .

ANNEX
RECOMMENDATIONS OF
THEEUROPEPLUSTHIRTYREPORT
1.Along-termforecasting instrument,EuropePlusThirty,shouldbesetup
toservetheInstitutions oftheEuropeanCommunityand,sofarasthe
lattermaydesire,itsmembergovernment?.Itshouldworktoatimehorizon
offiveyearsandlonger.
2.TechnologyAssessmentshouldbecarriedoutbythecontinuingEuropePlus
Thirtyinstrumentasanintegralpartofitswork.
3.Theforcastingshouldbeintegrated,namely:
(a)notlimitedtoasinglesector,butencompassing andintegratingall
sectorsrelevanttothelong-termfutureoftheEuropeanCommunity,
ortotheparticular problemareaunderexamination ;
Cb)integratedwiththeCommunitypolicy-making process.
4.Theforecasting shouldbedevisedsothatarangeofpossiblegoalsand
possiblewaystoreachthemcanbeexamined.Noonegoalorpolicywould
berecommended aboveothers.
5.EuropePlusThirtyshouldadoptaflexibleandadaptivemethodofwork,
employingawholerangeofquantitative andnon-quantitative methods.
6.Itshouldworkinthreeways:byassembling workdoneelsewhere,by
lettingcontracts,andbyin-houseresearch.
7.EuropePlusThirtyshouldhave,aswellas"generalists",anirv-house
staffwithknowledgeofthefollowingsubjects:
Agriculture,fisheriesandforestry
Socialstructures andvalues
Education
Scienceandtechnology
Industry
Energy
Materials
Theenvironment
.Transport '
Economics andfinance
Defenceanddisarmament
Politicsandinstitutions
Technology assessment
8.ForthefollowingsubjectsEuropePlusThirtyshouldprimarilyrelyon
outsideadvice:
Climate
Population
Health
Communications

-2- ANNEX
9.(a)Thegoverning bodyofEuropePlusThirtyshouldbeaBoardoftwelve
members,appointed bytheEuropeanCommission .
(b)ThestaffofEuropePlusThirtyshouldbeheadedbyaDirector
assistedbytwoDeputyDirectors.
(c)Thestaffshouldbegraduallybuiltuptobetweenthirtyandseventy-
fivegraduateprofessionals .
(d)Publication ofworkshouldbetherule,butunpublished studiesshould
notbeexcludedifthereisgoodreason.
(e)EuropePlusThirtyshouldbeattheserviceprimarilyoftheEuropean
Commission andParliament andalso,iftheywishit,ofthemember
governments .Therelationship ofEuropePlusThirtytotheInstitutions
oftheCommunityshouldbekeptpermanently underreviewbytheBoard
ofEuropePlusThirty.
(f)Atleast75percentofEuropePlusThirty'sfinanceshouldalways
comefromtheEuropeanCommission .