ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(80)142
Vol.1980/0046

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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(80)142 final
Brussels,17April1980,
MV
A *v■\/
THEENERGYSITUATIONINTHECOMMUNITY
SITUATION 1979
OUTLOOK1980
(ReportfromtheCommissiontotheCouncil)
COM(80)142final

SUMMARY*
Theestimated Inlanddemandforenergyin1979reached about985
milliontonsofoilequivalent (mtoe),representing agrowthof5%
ascompared withtheprevious year.Thedemandforenergywas
undoubtedly inflated bytheseverewinterandbyhighereconomic
growth,GDPintheCommunity beingestimated tohaveincreased by
3.3%over1978.Inlandconsumption ofoilrosebyabout2.7%,the
demandforotherfuelsshowing morebuoyancy :coal+9.4%,natural -
gas+7.6%.Electricity consumption increased byabout5.1%.
Theeconomic prospects fortheCommunity in1980arerelatively
poor,withGDPestimated toincrease byabout1.2%.Energydemand
isexpected toincrease byonly0.2%.However,inlandconsumption
ofoilisforecast todecline byabout2%.Theseestimates could
beonthelowsideifeconomic conditions areimproved .A1%rise
inGDPcouldresultin10milliontonsmoreoiltobeimported .
0IL
(i)Ij]e_world situation
Worldoilproduction isestimated tohaverisen -in1979by2.5
millionbarrelsperday(b/d)to65million b/d,4%above1978.
Ofthisincrease,OPECcountries ,inspiteofthecutbackinIran,
contributed 1million b/d,ariseof3%,theNorthSea500,000 b/d,
andMexico,EgyptandCanadatogether asimilar amount.
*Allestimates quotedinthisreportfortheyear1979are
provisional .
1

.Consumption,ontheotherhand,appearstohaverisenbyonly?
millionb/d(1.5%),andfellbysome1.4%intheUSA.slacksrosp
bytheorderof1millionb/dincontrasttothefallof500,000
b/din1978.Oilpricesdoubledduringtheyear.Expressedin
termsofArabianLightequivalent,officialpricesmovedfrom
$12.70perbarrel(bbl)inDecember1978to$18-20/bblafterthe
GenevameetinginJune1979,andto$26-31/bblbymid-February 1980.
Pricesabovetheofficialrangeare,however,beingchargedbya
numberofOPECproducers.
In1980thesupply/demandbalanceseemslikelytobeatbestfinely
drawn.ThereistheprospectofafallinOPECproductionifall
thecutssofarannouncedbyMemberStatesareimplemented,and
evenifSaudiArabiacontinuestoproduce1millionb/daboveits
preferredceilingof8.5millionb/d.
(ii)Ih§_Community_situatjon
Inlandoilconsumption intheEECrosebyabout2.7%in1979toreach
about525milliontons(10.5millionb/d),25milliontonsabove
theagreedtargetof500milliontons.Bunkerdeliveries,however,
weredownby13%andthetotalinlandandbunkerdeliveries showed
anincreaseofabout2%,or10milliontonsover1978(Appendix 1).
Theriseindomesticconsumption wasduelargelytotheeffecton
gasoilandfueloildeliveriesofseverewinterweatherinthe
earlymonthsoftheyear.In1980inlandconsumptionisforecast
tobe8milliontonsbelow1979at517milliontons(10.3million
b/d).
2

Indigenous production roseby40%to89milliontons<1.8
million b/d)from64milliontons<1.3million b/d)iri1978',the
increase reflecting mainlythefirstfullyear'sproduction from
thefourNorthSeafields <Dunlin,Heather,Ninian,Thistle )
commissioned in1978.Community production covered .16%oftotal
requirements andnetimports roseslightly from472milliontonsto
about475milliontons<9.5million b/d).Onlyaslightfurther
increase inproduction of3.3milliontonsisforeseen for1980,
forwhichyearnetimportsareestimated atabout460milliontons
<9.2million b/d),ascompared withtheagreedimportlimitof472
milliontons.Thecostofnetimportsin1980appearslikelyto
beoftheorderof$100billion compared with$75billionin1979.
ThegrowthintotalCommunity consumption in1979wascommontoall
products,butespecially markedingasoilandnaphtha .Trendsin
theconsumption ofindividual products variedgreatly between
MemberStates.Thus,whiledeliveries ofmotorgasoline roseby
2%fortheCommunity asawhole,theywerevirtually unchanged in
FranceandGermanybut6%higherinItaly.Fueloilconsumption
doubledintheNetherlands ,whereitreplaced natural gasinpower
stations,andincreased substantially inFranceandBelgium .In
Germany andtheUnitedKingdom,ontheotherhand,consumption
remained ataboutthe1978level.
Exportsofpetroleum products werehigher,particularly fromthe
Netherlands ,FranceandGermany.Imports,ontheotherhand,were
generally slightly lower,andbymorethan10%inthecaseof
Germany.Thisimprovement intheexternal balance,together with
higherdomestic consumption ,ledtoanincrease inrefinery runs ■
byabout30milliontons<0.6million b/d)to560milliontons-
3

(11.2million b/d)„Theaverageutilization oftotalinstalled
distillation eapaeity (including plantoutofservice )consequently
rosefrom66%to73%.
During1979average consumer productsellingpricesbeforetaxin
theCommunity rosebyabout$100from$154to$247perton
(Appendix 3).Thisincrease wasroughlyinlinewiththatin
crudeoilpricesandwellbelowthe$150pertonriseinthespot
market.Community consumer pricesroseafurther $36toabout
S2S3pertoninFebruary 1980,inresponse totherisesinofficial
crudeoilpricesattheturnoftheyear.
NATURAL GAS
Totalconsumption ornatural gasin1979withintheCommunity was
about173mtoewhichrepresents anincrease ofabout 5%over1973.
Significant increases occurred inGermany (12%),Belgium (9%),the
UnitedKingdom^8%),France(5%)andtheNetherlands (5%).This
growthindemandwaspartlyduetotheharshwinterexperienced in
thenorthern MemberStatesaswellastothepriceadvantage of ,
gas.
Overall,therewasanincrease intheshareofprimary energy
consumption metbygasfrom17.1%in1978to17.5%in1979.This
trendisforecast tocontinue,theshareofgasreaching afigure
of18.2%in1980.
Natural gasproduction in1979withintheCommunity at137mtoewas
3%higherthanintheprevious year.Production intheNetherlands ,
whichaccounts foralmosthalfoftheCommunity 'sproduction ,
•increased by6%whilstGermany reported anincrease of3%.France,
4

ItalyandtheUnitedKingdomreportedfallsinproductionofabout
2%,5%and1%respectively .Withthegrowthinproduction,the
Netherlands increaseddeliveriesofgastootherMemberStates;
however,adeclineindeliveriesisforecastfortheyearahead.
MemberStatesareincreasingly turningtoimportsofgasfrom
outsidetheCommunity,whichreached37mtoe,or22%oftotal
consumption,in1979.Thisrepresents agrowthinimportsof
about23%over1978,whichhadalreadyincreasedby75%overthe
previousyear. - .
Theleadingimporter,Germany,increaseditsimportsbyabout22%
in1979andaccountedforaboutathirdofCommunityimports,
whilsttheUnitedKingdomrecordedalargeincrease,assupplies
fromNorwaybuiltup.Indeed,,Norwayaccountedforalmosthalfof
theCommunity'simportsin1979,whilsttheUSSRsuppliedabout38%,
Algeria9%andLibya5%.
Thesesuppliedwereusedtohelpmeetthegrowthintotalgas
demand.Consumptionforelectricity generationfellslightly,
mainlyduetothelargesubstitution offueloilforgasinthis
•usebytheNetherlands .Theconsumption ofgasbythechemical
industryasafeedstockremainedatthesamelevelintheCommunity
in1979atalmost12mtoe;however,thisisforecasttorise
slightlyin1980.
Finalgasconsumptionforenergypurposesincreasedbyalmost13%
in1979,madeupofanincreaseof15%intheindustrialsectorand
12%inthedomesticandcommercialsector.Infact,industry
accountedfor43%offinalconsumption intheCommunityduring1979,
5

withsignificant increases intheUnitedKingdomandGermany.
Domestic andcommercial usesalsoIncreased significantly 1nthese
countries aswellasintheNetherlands .
Forecasts for1980showacontinuation inthemajortrendswitha
levellingoffinCommunity gasproduction andagrowthingas
importsbyabout20%.Theforecast increaseinthedemandforgas
ofabout3%in1980ismainlyduetoexpected growthinthe
industrial sector.
C0AL
Hardcoalconsumption intheCommunity in1979reached about308
million tons(191mtoe).Almostthewholeoftheincrease of
21milliontonswasduetorisingdemandforelectricity generation ,
particularly intheUnitedKingdom,buttherehasalsobeena
modestriseindemandbythesteelindustry,compensating market
contraction elsewhere .
Provisional figures showelectricity coal-burn tohavebeenofthe
orderof177million tonsin1979compared to160million tonsthe
previous year.However,thisfurtherrisehasdonelittleto
narrowtheenormous differences incoalconsumption forelectricity
generation betweendifferent MemberStates;about77%ofallhard
coalforelectricity generation wasusedintheUnitedKingdom and
Germany,nomorethanamarginal reduction intheiroverwhelming
preponderance lastyear.Ifbrowncoalistakenintoaccount,
thispreponderance isevenhigher.

The market for coal and coke for steel production atabout 77
million tons (coke being reckoned ascoal byafactor of1.3)
haswitnessed anupturn ofabout 10% .Ontheother hand ,total
demand byfoundries andgeneral industry showed aslight drop in
1979 ,due toproblems intheBelgian cement industry ,including
astrike . The market for domestic solid fuels has continued its
slow contraction atafurther reduced rate .
Forthethird year insuccession ,coal production inthe
Community hasbeen stable ,reaching about 240million tons (148
mtoe )in1979 .Planned pit closures ofuneconomic mines in
Belgium and France ,leading toadrop inoutput inthese two
countries ,were compensated byrises inGermany and theUnited
Kingdom ,particularly inthe former .
Inthe face of .stable production ,themarket rise inconsumption
•hasboosted coal imports from outside theCommunity in1979 by
some 20%toabout 58million tons (37mtoe). Ofthese ,about 29
million tons went topower stations and close on23million tons
were coking coal .
There hasbeen anupward movement inworld market coal prices in
1979 dueprimarily torising freight rates .However ,onaccount
oftheweakness ofthedollar ,these rises have not fully
translated themselves into theCommunity 'scurrencies .Asa
result ,theneed for subsidies forthe Community 'scoal industry
has not decreased .
7

Germancoalproducers' excessstocksofcoalandcokehave
contracted substantially .Elsewhere intheCommunity /producers'
stocksdonotgreatly exceedworking requirements .
Coalconsumption isexpected toremainataboutthesamelevelin
1980.Increasing demandbycoal-fired powerstations insomeMember
Statesislikelytocompensate slightcontractions elsewhere /while
consumption bythesteelindustry islikelytobesomewhat lower
thanlastyear.Ontheotherhand,themarketforcoalingeneral
industry,themostpromising areaforsubstitution ofcoalforoil
afterelectricity generation ,maygrowbysome15%butwillstill
beverymodestinabsolute terms.
Therearenogroundstoexpectanysubstantial changesin1980in
theCommunity 'scoalproduction .Imports,ontheotherhand/are
likelytorisebyafurther 15%toabout65million tons.
ELECTRICITY
In1979netelectricity consumption increased intheCommunity by
5.1%to1186Twh.Atnational level/significant increases in
consumption tookplaceinIreland (10.6%),France (6.6%)and
Belgium (6.1%).Consumption wasmarkedly affected bythesevere
winterweather atthestartoftheyear.
Increases inelectricity consumption in1979werebelowthe
Community averageintheUnitedKingdom (4.2%)andinLuxembourg
(2.4%).Growthratesinthesetwocountries reflected
difficulties intheireconomies ,disappointing industrial production
8

Levelsinelectricallyintensiveindustriesand,inthecaseofthe
UnitesKifigdelm#eshtlfiWineisigfiiTieartifeempetitien fremthegas-
sector.
Electricity consumption in1980isforecasttoincreasefurtherby
about3,5%.Comparatively highgrowthisanticipated inFrance
andinIrelandbutprospectsgenerallyindicatesmallerincreases
thanin1979-owingto.thereducedforecastsforeconomicgrowth.
(ii)Conventional POwer_stat2ons >.
Conventional thermalpowerstations(i.e.thosefuelled ;
principally bycoal,oilornaturalgas)supplied77%ofnet
electricity productioninCommunitypowerstationsin1979.
Production fromthesestationswassome5%higherthanin1978.
Anincreaseinproductionatoil-firedpowerstationswas
distrubingbutwascausedprincipally throughtheoperationof
newlycompletedplantorderedbeforethe1975CounciI,Directive
restrictingthedevelopment ofpowerstationsusingpetroleum
products.Therewasalso,however,anencouraging increasein
productionatcoal-firedplant.Useofnaturalgasinpower
stationsisestimatedtohavefallenforthethirdconsecutive
year.
Hydro-electric plantaccountedin1979forsome12%ofelectricity
production,butwasslightlylessthanin1978asweather
conditions werenotsofavourable .
9

Ciii)'^ciear .energy
Inthecourse of1979 ,installed nuclear capacity intheCommunity
rose by2,800 MWeto28,800 MWe,andnetelectricity production from
nuclear plants reached 127 Twh .
Intheyear ahead ,nuclear plants areexpected tocome into
operation more regularly ,particularly inFrance where the
production ofelectricity ofnuclear origin isestimated torise by
50%ascompared with 1979 .FortheCommunity asawhole ,
installed nuclear capacity should reach 30,000 MWe,andthe
corresponding netelectricity production ofabo^t 160Twhwill be
equivalent tosome 13% oftotal electricity production .
InGermany ,alegal decision has raised the ban onthe construct .
oftwo units ,with the reserve ofthe approval ofthe local
authorities .This decision could result inaneasing ofthe
situation with regard tothe national nuclear programme .
NUCLEAR FUELS
The international market continued toawait developments ,although
several users intheCommunity concluded "spot "contracts or
entered into long-term agreements under which prices ,negotiated on
anannual basis ,remain fairly firm .Negotiations betwc =-T..,.
Australian Government andtheCommunity were begun attheendof
theyear with theobject ofanagreement providing guarantees :
these should lead totheconclusion ofsupply contracts fornatural
uranium .

Withregardtotheenrichment ofuranium,certain'Long-term fixed
commitment "contracts warsconverted te"§a3u§tabl& fixed
commitment "typecontracts totakeaccountofthedevelopment of
nuclear programmes .
Astofutureprospects ,conditions ofregularsupply seemlikelyto
prevailinamarketwhichcouldbe,abuyers' marketintheshort
andmediumterm,subjecttothereserveofinterventions bythe
publicauthorities inproducing countries ;thelongtermwillbe
influenced bytheextenttowhichthereturnofAustralia tothe
marketinfluences quantities andprices.
11

flPPENDIX 1
Table1*Inlandconsumption ofprimaryenergyintheCommunity
Hardcoal
Lignite
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear energy
Hydro,geothermal &others
TOTAL**
*Provisional data
**Including otherfuels1977
toe
172.7
26.8
493.5
154.2
26.2
39.2
912.6%
18.9
2.9
54.1
16.9
2.9
4.3
100.01978
Mtoe
\\\\
\\
V-%
175.1
26.8
511.6
160.7
28.5
35.3
938.0l^.7
54.Va
17.1
3.0
3.8
100.01979*
Estimates
Mtoe
191.6
27.9
525.4
172.8
31.3
34.1
v985.0
1V\
\'Λ
A\"à\%
19.4
2.8
53.3
17.5
3.2
3.5
100.01980
Forecasts
Mtoe
191.0
27.9
517.0
178.0
39.0
34.2
987.1%
19.3
2.8
52.4
18.0
4.0
3.5
100.0

ν
L.
APPENDIX 1(cont.)
Table2:Percentage variation inGDPandeneroyconsumotion
I ,I1978-1977 If1979-1978* I1980-1979 I
.
. Estimates ! Forecasts
IGrossDomesticProduct+3.1 +3.3 +1.2
EnergyInlandconsumption +2.8 +5.0 +0.2
o'fwhich:
"Oil . +3.7 +2.7 -1.6
-Solidfuels +1.4 +9.4 -0.3
I-Naturalgas +4.2 +7.6 ■ +3.0
I-NueLearenergy +8.8 +9.8. +24.6
-Hydro,geothermal &others -9.9 +1.2 +0.3
Table3:■EnergysupplyintheCbmmumty
Solidfuels
Oil
Natural gas
Primaryelectricity ,etc.
I1977 1978 1979*198(3
Produc­
tionNet
imports**Produc­
tionNet
imports**Produc­
tionNet
imports**Produc­
tionNet
importai*
174.3
48.6
139.4
61.627.5
480.0
16.6
3.9172.3
63.6
133.0
60.724.8
472.1
29.6
3.1173.8
89.0
137.1
62.829.5
474.7
37.2
2.8175.6
93.6
128.0
69.938.3
460-0
51-8
3-3
ITOTAL T"!423.9 528.0 429.6 529.6 462.7 544.2 467.1553.4I
*Provisional data
**Imports minusexports
*ir»-r.
i •

APPENDIX 1(cont.)
Table4:EEC-oilconsumption ,production andimports
(millions oftonnes)
.197878/79
%+1979*
estimates79/80
%+ 1980
}
Consumptioni
Ii
i
i !I
Inland** 511.6 +2.7% 525.4 -1.6% 517.0
Bunkers 30.3 -12.8% 26.6 +12.8% 30.0
Total 541.9 +1.9% 552.0 -0.9% 547.0
Production 63.6 +40.0%i
89.0 !I
+3.4% 92.0
I
Stockchange'-6.1 +11.7 +5.0
Netimoorts 472.2 +0.5% 474.7
'-3.0% 460.0
*Provisional data.
**Including refiners 1ownconsumption andlosses.
14

APPENDIX2
EEC,USAAND-JAPAN:Estimatedoilconsumption,production
andimports1978-1980
(inmilliontons)
1978■ii■i
1978/19791979*l1979/198011980H
l*-+l(est.)I2il I
m
fconsumption**
i
EEC 542 !+1-9■552-0.9 547
USA- 888-1-* •876 -0.6 871
JAPAN.267♦2.0j272| 272'j
1698 1700 -0.6'1690
jProductionI-
EEC 64 |+40.0 89 +3.4 92
USA L482 - 482-1.2 476
JAPAN
!i_.•
i i .■L_j
.546I
I+4.6••
I571-0.5 568
JStockchangesf 'V
EEC '"6 +12.■ +5
USA 8 • ■+« -
JAPAN . |"•+5 ! L-
-i5n
-+21 +5\
Imports
EEC 472 +0.5 475 ♦3.0 460
USA 398 398 - 395
jJAPAN !!!|+3.4'[277 -1.8I272l
I1137 +1.1 1150 -2.0 1127
*Provisional data*
**-Includingbunkers,refineryownuseandLosses,directcrudeburning.
Sources:EEC
USA
JAPANEurostatandCommissionestimates
ChaseManhattan andIPAA.
OECOandPetroleumEconomicsLtd.

APPENDIX 3
Table 1:Average EECconsumer pricesexcluding taxes
($/tonne)
12/78 6/79 12/79Index12/79
(12/78=100 )I
[11/2/80
[
Premium motorgasoline 265 320 390 147 440
Domestic heatingoil
(gasoiL)170 235 300 177 348
Residual fuel3%S 97 124 i
j168 173 187
Averageallproducts* 154 194 247 .160 283
♦Estimated foryieldofArabianLight34°APIonatmospheric distillation
Table2:Averaae EECconsumer pricesincluding taxes
($/tonne)
12/78 6/79 12/79Index12/79
(12/78=100 )
Premium motorgasoline
Domestic heatingoil(gasoiI)
Residual fuel3%S676
221
100752
299
127884
382
175131
171
175
Averageallproducts* 278 330i
406 j146
*Estimated foryieldofArabianLight34°APIonatmospheric distillation
16

APPENDIX 3(cont.)
Table3:•Averaae CIFpricesofcrudeoilimportedintoMemberStates ,■
1
- |DK D F]IRL I .NL UK EEC
1977 Q3100.70 101.10 103.60 102.65 101.50 98.10 102.10 102.15j101.80
Q4102.00 101.80 104.60 104.10 .103.10 "98.40 102.50 101.80 102.40
1978 Q1102.00 99.40 104.00 103.85 102.90 97.85 102.55 101.40 101.85
Q2101.70 101.50 102.30 104.20 .102.90 97.65 101.95 101.20 101.55
Q3100.55 100.95 102.55 •104.70 102.15 97.60 101.45 101.20 .101.55
Q4104.65 104.40 105.30 106.45 104.10 ,99.70 103.80 103.75j104.05
1979 Q1110.25 113.40 113.40 111.30 '111.00 107.20 112.60 111.40 111.10
Q2124.90 136.50 138.30 '128.35 124.90 125.35 130.20 .133.65 131.10
03 .150.75*,168.15 167.65 159.90 151.20 156.10 161.85 163.35
|161.50|
Table4:IndexofCIFcrudeoilcostsinnational currencies (1977Q1=100)
1977Q3I! 1
103.65 103.80I
I99.05 101.95 100.90 102.65 101.40 101.65 101.45I
Q4II102.35 104.60 96.60 102.20 97.65 102.50 99.50 96.90 100.00
«|
1978 Q194.95 95.85 89.60V100.25 94.90 100.00 92.80 90.80 95.20
Q295.50 97.20 88.10 97.25 91.80 .99.85 91.90 95.15 94.80
Q392.85 94.40 85.35 93.25 '91.30 97.00 89.40 90.45 91.35
Q4.87.60 90.00 80.45 90.95 88.40 97.45 83.80 89.05 88.60
1979 .Q1104.20 107.50 106.60 103.90 104.70 108.50 106.90 105.70 106.00
Q2122.00 134.60 132.70 122.60 ,.118.50 126.70 127.30 122.80 126.40
Q3'I
!141.60 '161.80 154.80147.90 j
i140.50 153.60 153.10 139.40 142.10

APPENDIX 4
Summaryofcoalsupplysituation intheCommunity
(in106t=13
Production Imports Exports Stock .
variationInland
consumpt ion
1978Coal 238.1 45.3 2.9 +5.9L
I286.AV
Coke 65.1 0.8 •-7.5I
+3.** ;ΟΙ.Γ' I
Lignite +peat .131.8 1.5 - +0.7 134.0
TOTALintoe 172.6 31.1
•I7.2 +5.9 202.4
1979*Coal 238.7 "58.2 2.3 +12.4 •307.-5 I
ICoke!67-9 0.7 .i8.0 +7.3 67.9
Lignite +peat •™-3 1.9 -0.3 134.9
TOTALintoe^j!173.8 ;37.7 7.6 *5.7
|210.1
!
1980Coal 1239.8 64.7 1.7 +4.4 307.2
jCoke 65.9 0.8 3.6 +1.9 65.0
Lignite +peat 139.0 1.9 -0.3 140.6
TOTALintoe 175.6 43.1 3.6 -0.1 215.0
*Provisional data
Includingstatistical variation,productsfromrecuperation andproduction ofsmallmines.
^Primaryenergyproduction .
18

labUM;Netconsumption ofelectricenergy(including losses)
(Twh)
Year ____ EUR-9 I
19771081.5
1978 1128.6
19791186.1
1980 1227.6
Variations :
1978/77 +4.3% -
1979/78 +5.1%
1980/79 +3.5%
Table2:Totalnetproduction
(Twh)
EUR-9 TotalSharebyenergysource
HydraulicjGeothermal NuclearConventional
thermal
1978
1979
19801123.6
1178.7
1223.0 1140.9
139.9
134.92.4
2.4
2.5115.1
127.0
159.9865.2
909.4
925.7
Variations :
1979/78
1980/79+4.9%
+3.7%-0.7%
-3.6%+0.6%
+0.6%+10.3%
+25.9%+5.1%
+1.8%
Shareintotal:
1978
1979
1980100%
100%
100%12.5%
11.9%
11.0%0.2%
0.2%
0.2%.
10.3%
10.8%
13.1%
.i77.0%
77.1%
75.7%