ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(77)380
Vol.1977/0125

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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(77)380 final.
23July1977
«■'EM
Communication fromtheCommission to
theCouncilonthe
UpdatingoftheOutlookforAgricultural Markets
CCDî(77)380final.

-1-
CONTENTS
PAGE
2I,Introduction
2II.Summary
III.Somefactorsinthegeneraleconomicforecasts A
5IV.Outlookbysector

Since1974/initsannualreportonThestateofagricultureinthe
Community",theCommissionhaspublishedtheoutlookforthevarious
*agricultural marketsforthecoming12-24months.Theseforecasts
wereupdatedtowardsmid-yearinafurtherpublicationthefirstofwhich
wasforwardedtotheCouncilaboutmid-July1975.During1976,nosuch
updatingwaspublishedastheCommissionhadforwardedseveralcommuni­
cationstotheCouncilonthestateofagriculture intheCommunityas
affectedbythedroughtinthesummerofthatyear.
Beforepresentingthiscommunication totheCouncil,theCommissionheld
preparatorymeetingswiththeDirectors-General oftheNational
MinistriesofAgriculture andanumberofoutsideexperts,inagricul­
turalforecasting.Theconsiderations whichfollowwereworkedouton
thebasisofthedirections ancimanagementofagricultural policyasit
standsatpresent.Itdoesnottakeaccountofpossiblechangesthatthe
CommissionandCouncilmaymakeinthelightofthetrendsdescribedbelow.
SUMMARY <
TheoutlookforCommunityagricultureinthesecondhalfofthecurrent
yearandfor1978pointstosomeimprovementinprofitability incertain
sectors/stabilisation insomeothersandthepersistence ofcertain
structuralsurpluses/especially inthemilkproducts/sugarandwine
sectors/andalsosomedifficulties inthecerealsector.
DespitethemeasurestakenatCommunitylevelinthemilkproductssector/
butterstockswillincreasetoatleast300,000tonnesin1977andare
likelytobestillhigherattheendof1978.Ontheotherhand,skimmed
milkpowderstocksmaydeclineslightlyin1977andin1978.Cheese
productionisgrowingfasterthanconsumption.Itwillbedifficultto
disposeofmilksurplusesontheworldmarketasseveralnon-member
countriesareinthesamesituationastheCommunityasregardsover­
productionofmilk.
Inthenextfewyears/thestructuralsugarsurplusislikelytoreach
alevel(about3milliontonnes)suchthatitwillbedifficultto
η
disposeofonworldmarkets/whichwillsimilarly

beaffectedbyseriousoverproduction .
Inviewofthehighlevelofstocks,thesituationinthewinesector
•willrequiresuitablemeasurestostabilisethemarket,evenifpro­
ductionisnohigherthanaverage.
Productionontheworldcerealmarketswillbeslightlylowerthanlast
year,butstocklevels-alreadyhigh-willincreaseandconsequently
priceswillberelativelylow.IntheCommunity,thesharpincreasein
productionwillcreateproblemsparticularlyforthedisposalofbarley
andcommonwheat.
Productioninthebeefandvealsectorisexpectedtodeclinetosome
extent;beefproductionin1977willbeabout4%lower,fallingtoabout
6.1milliontonnesin1978.Evenifthesituationinthecomingmonths
isnotalwaysverysatisfactory,theproductionlevelnextyear,combined
withtheslightincreaseinconsumptionforecast,arelikelytoraise
pricesinthissectorfrom1978onwards.Withrespecttopig-meat,the
seasonalcyclewillhavetheeffectofraisingpricesintheautumnof
1977,whilstthedownturnintheproductioncyclebeginningin1978will
pushpricesuptoanewhighinthewinterof1978/79.Itisestimated .
thatpoultrymeatproductionwilldeclineslightly(byabout1%)in1978,
whichwilltendtosupportprices,whileeggproductionisexpectedto
increasesomewhat.
Inviewofthelowersoyapricesprobablenextyear,comparedto1976,
andtheprobablelevelofcerealspricesandtheabovementionedforecasts
forthedifferehtanimalproducts,returnsinthesesectorsareexpected
toimprove,exceptperhapsinthecaseofeggs.
Withrespecttotheotherproducts,thereisarealpossibilitythat
priceswillbelowforpotatoes,hopsandtobaccoandfirmerforsome
fruits,vegetablesandseeds.,Toconclude,inthenext12-24monthsthe
situationislikelytoberatherdifficultinthearableproduction.

wineandmilksectors,whileprofitability willimproveinmostanimal
production sectors.
Somefactorsinthegeneraleconomicforecasts
Persistence-andsometimesaccentuation -ofsharpdisparities bysector
andregioninthetrendsofdemand,supplyandincomeshassofar
preventedthecumulativecyclicalexpansionprocessnotedinprevious
recoveryphasesfromtakingoff.Theeconomicrecoveryunderwayinthe
Communityforthelasttwoyearshasbeenmarkedbyalternateperiods
ofacceleration andslowdown.Thelattertendencyhasbeenmostapparent
sincethebeginningoftheyear.Itisexpectedthattheeconomic
situationwillfirmupslightlyinthesecondhalfof1977,duemainly
tosomeexpansioninexportsand-incertaincountries-ofprivate
consumption .However,thegrowthratefortheentireyearwillbeno
morethan3%inrealtermsfortheCommunity asawhole,comparedwith
14/2%•in1976andthe4%objectivefixedlastautumn.Aslightly
faster ,rateofprogressisexpectedin1978duetotherecoverymade
possibleincertaintfountries -byanimprovement inthefundamental
equilibria . '
Inthecircumstances ,theprogressachievedinthemediumtermtowards
restoringfullemployment hasbeendisappointing .Theunemployment
ratefortheCommunity asawholewas5.1%inthespringanditmay
1
goupalittleinthesecondhalf-year.
Althoughdemandisexertingnomorethanmoderatepressureonoverall
resources,theriseinpriceshasaccelerated sincetheautumn.This
ispartlyduetotheshortsupplyofcertainagricultural products
followingthedroughtintheCommunityin1976,andtheunfavourable
weatherwhichhashadaconsiderable impactonthepricesofcertain
tropicalfoodstuffs.B.utotherfactors,suchashigherpublicservice-
tariffsandhigherpricesforoilproductshavealsoplayedan
importantpart.Ontheotherhand,theimpactofwagecostsonthe
pricesofmanufactured productshasingeneralbeenmodest.Allin
alltherise1n

-5-
consumerpricesin1977,despitetheexpectedslowdowninthesecond
half-yearmainlyasaresultofthereturntonormalinfoodstuffs
supplies,islikelytobebarelylessthaninthepreviousyear.An
« 1,increaseof9/27.comparedwith10%in1976,isexpected.
#♦'
Lastly,theincreaseinthevolumeofprivateconsumptionisestimated
at2.7%for1977and3.3%for1978,asagainst3.4%in1976.
\IV.Outlookbysector'
li^lk Attheendof1876,dairyherdsintheEECwereabout0.8%
largerthaninthepreviousyear.Thisexpansionsuggested
areversalofthetrendoverthelastthreeyears;an
r
increaseofabout1%bytheendof197*'andperhaps27.
Ρ
bytheendof1978mighthavebeenexnected.Hswever,
measurestakenatCommunitylevtioinnibitMIIksurpluses
inparticularthenorrdeliveryere..twoon.1-crvecsion
scheme,,willcertainlyaffectthesizeofdairyherdsin
thecomingyears.Thusitcanatpresentbeestimated
albeittentatively,thatherdswillnotexpandin1977,
whilstin1978theincreasewillbeconsiderably less
thanoriginallyexpected(+1%comparedwith1977).
Althrwjhweathc-rconditionswillprobablybebetterin1977
thaninthepreviousyear,concentrated feedpriceswill
behigherthanin1976,whichwilllimitincreasesin
production anddeliveriestodairiestoabout2%on
1976levels.Asubstantialincreaseintheproductionof
*
wholemilkpowderandinquantitiesofliquidskimmedmilk
returnedtoproducerscanbeexpected;consequently ,only
aslightincrease <0.5-1%)inbutterproductionisprobable
whileskimmedmilkpowderproduction maywellfailtorise.
However,theincreaseinbutterproduction combinedwith
aslightdeclineinconsumption,willswellbutterstocks
toatleast300,000tbytheendof1977(1976:255,000t);
stocksofskimmedmilkpowderwillbeslightlylowerthan
inthepreviousyear,however,(estimatedatabout1million
tonnes).

-6-
Cheeseproductionwillprobablygrowfasterthancon­
sumption;thismayincreasestocksandinfluencemarket
powerevolution.Preliminaryestimatesfor197bpoint
.. toaslightexpansionindairyherds(byabout1%)asmall
■ increaseindeliveriestodairies,providingaslightin­
creaseinbutterproduction,amoreorlessstabletotal
butterconsumption,suggesting anincreaseofabout60,000
,,tinbutterstocks.Production ofskimmedmilkpowder
isexpectedtoincreaseslightlyin1978,whichwillnot
havetohave,asaresult,anincreaseinstocks.With
respecttothesituationinthemainnon-membermilkpro­
ducingcountries,productionisexpectedtodeclineorto
stabilizeinAustraliaandCanada,butwillincreaseinmost
othernon-membercountries.Thustheworldmarketislikely
toremainunderpressure,particularly forbulkproducts.
BeefandVeal InDecember1976,afurtherdecline(-0.5%)inCommunity
herdswasrecordedandbreedingherds-inparticular cows
suitablyformeat-werealsosmaller(-2.1%).TheCommunity
beefandvealmarkethasthereforeenteredthedownward
productionphase^1^.Itisestimatedthatin1977indi­
genousbeefandvealproductionwilldropby4%;in197b
productionisexpectedtoreachtherelatively lowlevel
of6.1milliontonnes(i.e.minus1%comparedwith1977)
followedbyacyclicalrecoveryattheendofthedecade.
Duetothelessfavourableeconomicsituation(highunem­
ployment),especiallyinItalyandtheUnitedKingdom(both
beefandvealimporters)andduetoincreasedsuppliesof
cereal-based meats-inparticularpigmeat-inthefirst
halfof1977,beefandvealconsumptionisexpectedto
stagnatein1977asitdidin1976.Theself-supplyrate
closeto100in1974,1975andeven1976,islikelytobe
lowerinthenextthreeyears,'whi1st
(I)ProductioncycleshavenotyetcomefullterminallMemberStates.In
Germany,forexample,thedescendantphase.ofthecyclehasnotyet
started.

marketpricesforadultbovinesandcaiveswillrisemore
sharply.
Inthemainnon-memberproducerorimportercountriesthere
wasanalmostgeneraldeclineincsttlenumbersattheend
of1976andtheopeningof1977.Thiswasduetothehigh
levelofslaughterings inrecentyears.In1977,especially
inthesecondhalfoftheyear.,bc<?f <vojLsuppliesin
thosecountriesareexpectedtoera,rjnsidsrably and
inthelastyearsofthisdecadeproductionwillbelower
thaninthepasttwoyears.Attheendofthedecade,,
importrequirements willbehigherthaninthetraditional
importingnon-membercountries,suchtheI'nitedStates,
andfollowingtheopeningofnewmarket".(Midc'leEast,
»includingEgypt)itislikelythattestandvidlprices
onworldmarketswillbec,mvor<;ctharplyVrcrn1he
beginningof1978andthiittrii.tre'iomilcontinuein1979.
WhilethepigcensusinAarilof1**7-■•:vv
differences fromoneMemberStateto.inof-h-;r■-'Itgavethe
impressionthatbreedingherdshadceasedtoexpandin
theCommunity.Highpricesforfeedandlowsellingprices
forpigmeatdiscouraged production.Asthissituationis
expectedtocontinueinthecomingmonths,thenext
census,inAugust1977,willprobablyshowadecline.
EstimatesbasedontheAprilcensussuggestthatupto
Septemberproductionwillbehigherthanlastyearbutwill
falloffafterthatmonth.Cyclicalchangesinpigmeat
productionhavebeenrelativelyslightinrecentyears:
+2.7%,-1.5%,+1.6%.Itisexpectedthatproductionwill
increaseby2-3%in1977andfallin1978.
Inviewoftherelativelyhighelasticityofpigmeat
production,priceshavefluctuated moresharplythan
productionitself.Itisexpectedthatthepresent

Lowpriceswillbemaintainedduringthesummer,butthat
therewillbeanincreaseintheautumnandmaintained
duringthewinter(seasonaldemandcycle,lowersupply).
Excludingcyclicalmovements,pigmeatpriceswillincrease
in1978toreachtheirpeakinthewinterof1978/79.
Intheothercountriesofthewesternhemisphere acyclical
movementsimilartothatdescribedfortheCommunityis
expectedbutwithsharperfluctuations intheEEC.For
example,intheUSAoneestimates aconsiderable increasei
slaughterings in1977ofabout7%,whereasitisestimated
thatthesituationwillholdsteadyorincreaseslightly
in1978.InEasternEuropepigmeatproductiondepends
onharvests,inparticularintheUSSR.Thepoor1975
harvestledtoamarkedreductioninpignumbers,andeven
thoughherdswerebuiltupmoreorlessafteragood
harvestin1976,itisstilllikelythattherewillbe
aslightshortageofpigmeatinthesecountries.
Theproductionofeggsinshellseemstohavealong-term
cyclewhichreacheditslowestpointattheendof1876and
earlyin1977.Anupwardmovementwasalreadyapparent
in1977andshouldcontinuein1978.Thisleadsto
theconclusionthatproductionin1978willbeslightly
abovethe1977level(byabout1%).
Productionofeggsinshellinthemajornon-member
producingcountriesmayincreaseby2%in1977compared
with1976iA2.4%increaseisexpectedintheEastern
Europeancountriesanda1.5%increaseinNorthAmerica
(totalproductionofnon-membercountriesin1977:
246734millionunits).

I*-9-
Itisdifficulttodrawupestimatesfor1978.Atpresent
thereisnosignofadeclineinproduction.
Long-termfluctuations alsooccurintheproductionof
tablefowl;accordingtoestimatesbasedontherearing
ofbreedingchicks,productionisexpectedtodecline
slightlyin1978comparedwith1977(-1.5%).Withrespect
tootherspecies,itisexpectedthatturkeyproduction
willriseslightlyinviewofthesubstantial expansion
in"thissectoroverthelasttwoyears,whilstthe
productionofculledhenswillgoupcorrelatively
withtheeggestimates.Thesecons.iderationssuggest
thatproductionofalltypesofpoultrymeatuilldecline
byV/.in1978comparedwith1977.Estimatesforeggs
andpoultrymeat depend6neconomicinfluences (product
prices,priceoffeedetc)whichcouldaffectthese
trends,particularly withregardtotablefowl,asthere
isahighdegreeofflexibility intheproductionof
utilit>{.chicks.Poultrymeatproductioninthemain
non-meijiberproducingcountries mayriseby57.in1977
comparedwith1976(totalnon-membercountryproduction
in1977:13.1milliontonnes).Thisrisewillbealmost
exclusively duetoanincreaseintheproductionoftable
fowl,whileturkeyproductionwillremainatthesame
levelasinthepreviousyear.IntheUnitedStates,
thelargestproduceroftablefowlmayincreaseby5%inthe
secondhalfof1977ascomparedwith1976whilst
turkeyproduction maydropby2%.
In1978,anincreaseinpoultrymeatproduction canbe
expected.
•••/••■
ι

TheEECself-supplyratewillbeconsiderably higherin
1977/78thanin1976/77,bothincommonwheatandin
feedgrain.Onlytheproductionofdurumwheatis
declining.OverallcerealsproductionintheEECcan
nowbeestimatedatabout105million(comparedwith
90millionin1976/77),aproductionincreaseofabout
15millionwhichwillmainlyaffectcommonwheatand
barley.Asformaize,theincreaseinproductionis
absorbedbyinternalconsumption .
Stocksofallcerealsattheendofthe1976/77marketing
yearwillbeatanormallevel,namely12.7million,
ofwhich10.7millionwillbeonthemarket.Further,
thislevelofstocksandthegoodprospectsforthecoming
harvestmakeforpricesnotmuchabovetheintervention
pricesforfeedgrainandthereferencepricesforcommon
wheat. ;
Apreliminary reviewoftheworldcerealssupply
f
situation (bothwheatandfeedgrain)showsthatadifficult
marketingyearliesaheadfortheEECasregardsits
surplusesofbarleyandofcommonwheat,eveninthe
formofflour.
Forecastsinthecerealandmealsectorsindicateacertain
increaseintheutilization ofmaniocforanimalfeed.
In1977/73,theproductionatworldlevelofcommonwheat
willincreaseinonlythreeregions:theUSSR,the
CommunityandAustralia.Inothercountriesproduction
willbelessthaninpreviousyears.Worldwide,production
willbe10milliontonnesless.However,thisdropwill
bemor'ethanoffsetbyanincreaseofabout18million
tonnesincarryoverstocksintheUnitedStatesandCanada.

Thesupplysituationistherefore goodandworldmarket
pricelevelswillbelow.Asanincreaseinexisting
stocksisenvisaged,worldmarketpricesmayremainlow
foragreaterlengthoftime.
Withrespecttosecondarycereals,littlechangeisex­
pectedcomparedwiththepreviousyear,exceptintheUSSR
-possibledropof20milliontonnes-andintheCommunity
-anincreaseofabout12milliontonnes.Worldwide,pro­
ductionisexpectedtodropbysome6milliontonnes.In
viewoftheincreaseofabout15milliontonnesinstocks,
thesupplysituationforsecondarycerealsin1977/78will
beverysatisfactory andworldmarketpriceswillberelatively
lowoverthenextfewyears.
MarketpricesinCommunityproducerzonesrosesharplyin
1976/77,.toreachlevelsfrom25%(round-grained rice)to
50%(long-grained rice)morethantheintervention price.
Accordingtopreliminary information theareaunderrice
whichha'sbeendecreasingforsomeyears,hasbeenextended <■.
inFrandeandItaly,sothatthe1977harvestislikelyto
belargerthanin1976.Atthesametimeitshouldbenoted
thattheincreaseinconsumption ofriceduring1975/77resulted
fromtheincreaseofpotatoepricesduetosmallproductions .
Itisnotcertainthatthisconsumptionwillbemaintained in
future.
TheFAOestimates theworldriceharvestin1976/77at
345.5milliont.Availabilities resultingfromthisharvest
willbe1%down.However,withlargercarryoverstocks,the
supplysituationwillbarelybealteredintheimporting and
exportingcountries.Quantitiesavailableforexportin1977
seemmorethanenoughtocoverworldneedswithoutdrawing
onstocksbuiltupearlier.Itisestimatedthatavaila­
bilitiesofricewillslightlyexceedimportneedsin1977,
whichwilldeclinesomewhat.Worldtradewilltherefore be
lessbriskin1977thanin1976.

PricesontheworldmarketfellsteadilyuntilApril
1977mSincethenpriceshavefirmedupandmayremain
highuntilthearrivalofthe1977harvest(Augustto
December).
IntheCommunitytheareaundersugarbeetforthe
currentyearisaboyt4%downonlastyearandisestimated
atabout1.8millionha.Expectinganaveragecropin
1977/78,sugarproductionshouldbeaboutI0.5-II.0million
t.ImportsfromtheACPcountriesmaybeestimatedatabout
1.5milliontandhumanconsumption atabout9.3milliont
(estimatedconsumption in1976/77is9.15milliont,while i
ci
in1973/74itwasashighas10.4milliont).Thus,about;
3milliontincluding'C*quotasugarshouldbeexported
ifstocksremainthesame.Theratherlowpricesoffered
forsugarbeetproducedoverandabovethebasicquotain
1977arelikelytoleadtoareductionintheareaunder
beetintheCommunityin1978/79without,however,causing
supplydifficulties insugar.
IItisexpectedthatin1976/77worldsugarproductionwill
amounttoabout86.3milliont-a5%increaseoverthe
previousmarketingyear.Worldsugarconsumption remained
staticoverthepasttwoyears,undertheinfluenceof
highworldprices.Itpickedupagainin1976/77andis
likelytocontinuetogrowinthecomingyears,particularly
ifworldpricesremainatorneartheirpresentrelatively
lowlevels.
However,therecoveryhasnotyetoccurredinthemostin­
dustrialized regions.Giventherelativelyhighlevelof
sugarstocks,worldsugaravailabilities arelikelytoful-
filneedsinthecomingyearsandworldpriceswillremain
relatively low.

Thealternating goodandbadharvestsleadonetoex­
pectan\aboveaverageoliveoilproductioninthe
1977/78marketingyear.Ifconsumption doesnotpick
up,thereisadangerthatabundantsupplyandpoorde­
mandwilldepressthemarketandthatitwillbediffi­
culttodisposeofthe1977/78production.Themarket
evolutionofotheroilsisdependentofthesituationon
theworldmarket. /
Followingasignificantincreaseinthepurchaseofvege­
tableoilsfromcertainnon-membercountries-particularly
India-andonalowerscaleofChina-inthe1976/77
marketingyear,previouslyabundantstocksfelltothelowest
levelsforsomeyears.Asaresult,worldandCommunity
needsin1977/78willhavetobeentirelycoveredfromthe
production ,achievedinthecomingyear.
Oilproductionwouldseemadequatetomeetforeseeable
demandinthecomingyear.However,thequestionmaybe
raisedastowhetherproductionwillbesufficienttore­
f %*,buildstocksatworldlevel.Itislikelythereforethat
thepriceofoilswillremainfirmthroughouttheyearin
question.
Demandwasstrongforthesmallquantitiesofprotein
availableearlyinthemarketingyear,particularly be­
tweenOctober1976andApril1977.Asaresult,world
stocksofoilcakesarelikelytobeverylowatthebegin­
ningofthe1977/78marketingyearwithconsequentreper­
cussionsonforwardprices,particularly atthebeginning
ofthenextmarketingyear.
Theoutlookforthenextcampaigndependsmainlyontwo
factors-theharvestintheUSAinSeptemberandin
BrazilinMay1978ontheonehandandtheworlddemand
ontheotherhand.ActualforecastforAmericanharvest
showsanincreaseof12%oftheplantedareacomparedto\
lastyear,byanaverageyield,theproductioncouldrise
to.41.5miot,whichwouldgiveadisposal,bytakingthe
stocksintoaccount,of43miotof76/77.

Concerningthedemand/thelowpricesresultingfrom
th«availableincreasedcerealquantities,canenlarge
theuseofcerealsintheanimalfeedingintheUS,which
canhaveasaconsequence anadditionofhighersoya
quantitiesavailableforimportingcountries,notablythe
CommunitiesatpricesnotedattheendofJune,thismeans
lowerthanthequotationsofthefirstsemester1977.
InthehypothesisthattheBrazilianharvestof1978should
beequaltotheproductionof1978,itcanonlybean
importantmarketelementiftheevolutionofdemandis-'
differentfrom^thatdescribedearlier.
Yieldperhectarevariesmorewiththeweatherinthe
caseofwinethaninthecaseofothercrops.
Theinfluenceoffrostincertainregions,particularly
intheSouthWestofFrance,andintheSouthofItaly,
hasnotbeensuchastoexcludethepossibility ofpro­
ductionatbetween145and150mhiinCommunity.A
higherproductioncannothoweverbeexcluded.
Inthelongerterm,theexpansionofproductionshouldslow
downasaresultofthecontinuedimprovement inyieldper
hectareandslightreductionsintheareaundervinesas
theregulationgrantingaconversionpremiuminthewine
sectorisapplied.However,*inthecomingyears,the
effectwillbefeltofadditionalproductionfromnew
plantationsestablished inthelastfewyears.Percapita
consumption ofwineintheCommunityhasbeenmoreorless
staticforseveralyears:adeclineofabout5%inFrance
hasbeenoffsetbyaslightriseinsomeothercountries.
Overthenextfewmarketingyearsnomarkedincreasein
consumptionislikely:saturationlevelseemstohavebeen
reachedinsomecountries.InFranceandItalytheanti-
alcohol

-15-
propagandaandtheavailability ofcompetingbeverages
continuetorestrainwineconsumption,whileinothers
thegeneraleconomicclimateandthelevelofexcise
dutiesmakesaconsiderable increaseunlikely.
«
,» Inconclusiontherewillprobablybelargesurpluses
overthe^nextfewyears.Sincethestablelevelof
importsintotheCommunityisdetermined byquality-
relatedfactors,surplusCommunityproduction mustbe
■ exportedordistilled.Giventheinformationat
presentavailable,itisunlikelythattheworldmarket
balancewillimprovetoanysubstantial degree.Con­
sequently,onlysmallquantitiesofwinecanbeabsorbed
bytheworldmarket,bothnowandinthefuture.
Fruit :Summerfruitharvestswillbelowerthanlastyear.
ThisistrueofallproductsandnearlyallMemberStates
tovaryingdegrees.Takinglastyear'sharvestas100%,
thisyear'sharvestofsummerpearsinFranceandItaly
willamountto80%and85%respectively,thepeachharvest
73%and78%andtheapricotharvest56%and80%.In
France,theplumharvestwillbeonlyhalfwhatitwas
in1976,whileinItalyitwillbeabout16%less.It
willalsobelowerinGermany,belgium,theNetherlands
andtheUnitedKingdom.Thesereducedharvestsaredue
tocropvariations andexceptional weatherconditions,
causingannualfluctuations aroundanaveragethatwill
befairlystableintheyearstocome.Priceswill
remainfavourableforproduction,withproductionreduced
morethandemand.
jetables Theonlydataavailablefor1977relatetotomatoeswhere
incompletedatasuggestthatproductionwillbe5%greater
thanin1976.Forvegetablesasawhole,.littledeviation
fromtheaverageisexpectedintheshortormedium-term.
••/ta»

Worldtobaccoproduction In1977shouldbeaboutthesame
asitwasin1976,whichwasarecordyear(5,400milliont).
In1978,accountbeingtakenofpricetrends,aslight
dropinworldproductioncannotbediscounted.Thereare
somesignsthatconsumptionisfalling,intheindustrialized
countries;asaresult,disposalontheworldmarketmay
poseproblems,particularly fororientaltobaccosofwhich
stocksstandatabout40%ofannualconsumption .The
marketingofCommunityproductionisalreadyaffectedby
thesedifficulties .
Itisestimatedthatin1977theCommunitydemandforhops
willbe10%lowerthanestimatedproduction;thiswill
makeitdifficulttomarketthosequantitiesofhops
whicharenotcoveredbyacontract,evenontheexport
market;then,giventhehighlevelofstocks,therewill
alsobeheavypressureonprices.TheCommunitymarket
willthereforeremaincloselydependentondevelopments
onthe^worldmarketwhereitisalsoexpectedthatsupply
willExceeddemand,thatstockswillbehighandthat
priceswillbeinadequate.
In1977,theareaunderseedsworldwideisexpectedto
increaseslightlyandsupplieswillthereforebesufficient
tomeetdemand.Inviewofthereductioninstocksin
1976/77,producerpricesshouldremainatafairlevel
duringthe1977/78marketingyear.TheCommunity
markethasexhibitedthesametrendsastheworldmarket.
On1July1977,however,stocksofcertainspeciesof
graminaceae-particularly LoliumperenneL-were
veryhigh.Ontheotherhand,the1977harvestwill
satisfyonlyabout90%ofoverallCommunityneeds.
Sowingsin1977forthe1978and1979harvestareup
comparedwith1976.
Theconclusionisthat,withrecoursetocertainimports,
Communitysupplywillbesatisfactory overthenexttwo
marketingyears,withprrlcesremaining ,moreorlessstable
inrelationtopresentworldmarketprices.

GivenaCommunityagriculture areaunderpotatoesof1.35
to1.4millionhain1977,normalharvestmaybe
estimatedat36.6-38milliontapproximately .In1977/78
demandcanriseto19milliontforhumanconsumption,
4.5milliontforseedsandlosses,and4.5milliont
(maximum)forindustrialpurposes,sothatatotal
quantityofabout9milliontwillbeavailablefor
animalfeedandexport.Since1972,quantitiesintended
foruseasfeedhaveneverbeenmorethan8.7milliont
(since1972/73:8.2-7.9-8.7-5.7milliont).
Iftheharvestisaspoorasitwasin1975/76;244ql/ha
6milliontwillbeavailableforfeedandexport.Such
asurpluscanbeeasilyabsorbedbythesesectors.If
theharvestisasgoodasin1974/75(286ql/ha)the
surplusforfeedandexportwillamountto11.5milliont.
Inconclusion,consideringtheimportantavailabilities it
canreasonablybeexpectedthatpricesofpotatoeswillbe
relatively lowin1977/78andthattheanimalfeed
consumptionshallhavealightincreasingeffecttothe
detrimentoffeedingcereals.