EN    EN EN 
EN    EN  COMMISSION OF THE E UROPEAN COMMUNITIES 
Brussels, 30.7.2009 
SEC(2009) 1063 final 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
accompanying the 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
 
to the budgetary authority on guarant ees covered by the general budget  
situation at 31 December 2008 
   
{COM(2009) 398 final} 
EN 2   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the Budget ............................. 3 
1.1. Tables A1 and A2......................................................................................................... 3  
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) ..................................................................................... 3 1.1.2. Capital outstanding (Table A1).................................................................................... 4 1.1.3. Annual risk (Table A2) ................................................................................................ 4 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee ...................................................... 7 1.3. Evolution of risk......................................................................................................... 11 
1.3.1. Situation of loans to Member States .......................................................................... 11 1.3.2. Situations of loans to third countries.......................................................................... 12 1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees ....................................................................... 13 1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations.................................................................................... 13 1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties................................................................................ 14 1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees................................................................................ 14 2. Country-risk evaluation.............................................................................................. 16 2.1. Candidate countries.................................................................................................... 17 
2.1.1. Turkey .................................................................................................................. ...... 17 
2.2. Potential candidate countries...................................................................................... 18 2.2.1. Serbia.................................................................................................................. ........ 18 
2.2.2. Montenegro .............................................................................................................. .. 19 
2.3. New Independent States............................................................................................. 20 2.3.1. Georgia................................................................................................................. ...... 20 
2.3.2. Ukraine................................................................................................................. ...... 21 
2.4. Mediterranean partners............................................................................................... 22 2.4.1. Jordan .................................................................................................................. ....... 22 
2.4.2. Syria ................................................................................................................... ........ 23 
2.4.3. Egypt ................................................................................................................... ....... 24 
2.4.4. Lebanon................................................................................................................. ..... 25 
2.4.5. Tunisia................................................................................................................. ....... 26 
2.4.6. Morocco ................................................................................................................. .... 27 
2.5. Other countries........................................................................................................... 28 
2.5.1. South Africa ............................................................................................................ ... 28 
2.5.2. Brazil.................................................................................................................. ........ 29 
EN 3   EN 1. EXPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE BUDGET  
1.1. Tables A1 and A2 
The purpose of Tables A1 and A2 is to show the outstanding amount and annual repayments of 
capital and interest in respect of borrowing and lending operations fo r which the risk is covered by 
the Budget. The figures show the maximum possibl e risk for the Community in respect of these 
operations and must not be read as meaning that  these amounts will actual ly be drawn from the 
Fund or the Budget. 
In these tables, figures related to “New Member States” refer to the Member States which acceded 
to the European Union on 1 May 2004 and on 1 January 2007. 
1.1.1.  Authorised ceiling (Table A1) 
This is the aggregate of the maximum amounts of  capital authorised (cei lings) for each operation 
decided by the Council. 
In order to relate it to the risk which the Budget might have to cove r, account should be taken of the 
following factors which could affect it: 
Factor increasing the risk: 
• the interest on the loan s must be added to the authorised ceiling. 
Factors reducing the risk: 
• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB1: 
75% of the total amounts of lo ans signed in the Mediterran ean countries based on the 
Mediterranean protocols of 1977 and Counc il Regulations 1762/92/EEC and 1763/92/EEC. 
70% of the total amounts of loan s signed as part of lending ope rations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 96/ 723/EC, 97/256/EC, 98/348/EC and 98/729/EC and a 
sharing of risk between the Community and the EIB as the Budget guarant ee covers only political 
risks in some cases; 
65% of the total amounts of loans signed as part of financing operations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council  Decisions 99/786/EC, 2000/24/EC and 2006/1016/EC, and a sharing 
of risk between the Community and the EIB as th e Budget guarantee covers only political risks in 
some cases; 
• operations already repaid, since the amounts c oncerned are the maximum amounts of capital 
authorised (ceilings) and not outstanding amounts; 
• the ceilings are not necessarily taken up in full. 
Another factor to be considered is that some loan s are disbursed in currenci es other than the EUR. 
Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the ceiling may be exceeded when the amounts disbursed up to 
the date of the report are converted into EUR. 
                                                 
1 Within each portfolio individual EIB loans are, de fact o, guaranteed at 100% until the global ceiling is reached. 
EN 4   EN 1.1.2.  Capital outstanding (Table A1) 
This is the amount of cap ital still to be repaid on  a given date in respect of operations disbursed. 
Compared with the previous aggregate, the am ount outstanding does not include loans which have 
not yet been disbursed or the proportion of disbursed loans wh ich have already been repaid. 
1.1.3.  Annual risk (Table A2) 
Estimated amount of principal and interest due each financial year by each country according to 
disbursements made until 31 December 2008. 
EN 5   EN Authorised Capital Capital Remainder
Operations ceiling outstanding at outstanding at to be disbursed
30.06.2008 31.12.2 008 at 31.12.2008
MEMBER STATES  
EIB (new Member States )  3 976 3 921  782
MFA to Bul garia and Romania  253 140
Euratom to Bul garia and Romania  435 433
BoP1 
Hungary 6 500 2 000 4 500
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL  4 663 6 494 5 282
THIRD COUNTRIESA. Macro-Financial Assistance
Albania 9 9 9
Bosnia-Herze govina 40 40 40
Bulgaria 750
FYROM 90 90 85Geor
gia 142 58 58
Lebanon 50  50Romania 780Serbia and Montene
gro 280 280 280
Tajikistan 75 28 28
Ukraine 453 29 15
Sub total MFA 2 669  534  514  50
B. EURATOM2  39  53  9
C. Other
EIB Pre-Accession countries 28 755 4 703 5 372 4 487
EIB Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 28 342 5 274 5 777 4 426
EIB Asia and Latin America 8 205 1 520 1 731  662
EIB South Africa 2 400  562  599  401
Sub total EIB367 702 16 034 17 401 10 758
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL 70 371 12 631 14 047 10 035
GRAND TOTAL 70 371 17 295 20 541 15 316
(1) By Decision 1360/2008/EC of 2 December 2008 the Council deci ded to increase the ceiling from  EUR 12 000 milli on to EUR 25 0 00 million.
(3) The subtotal EIB includes the EIB loans to Member States.  
Credit line Loans made Amounts Amounts
Operations authorised available minus disbursed outstanding 
cancellations at 31.12.2008
Mandate 2007/2013: 25 800 5 943  929  928Pre-Accession countries
8 700 2 397  324  324
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries: 12 400 2 570  279  279
Mediterranean 8 700 2 400  279  279
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia 3 700  170
Asia and Latin America: 3 800  774  321  321
Asia 1 000  150
Latin America 2 800  624  321  321
South Africa  900  203  5 5
Previous General Mandate 2000/20075: 20 060 19 602 13 617 11 500
Pre-Accession countries 10 235 7 394 5 005 4 604
Neighbourhood and Partnershi p countries 6 520 6 446 4 444 3 837
Asia and Latin America 2 480 2 175 1 626 1 083
South Africa 825 824 463  426
Member States (followin g the accession ) 2 763 2 079 1 550
sub-total 65 %345 860 25 545 14 546 12 429
Financial agreements (70% Guarantee rate) 7 477 6 513 5 942 2 915Pre-Accession countries
3 770  477  431  312
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 2 310 1 617 1 497  737
Asia and Latin America: 1 022  809  663  187
South Africa  375  375  255  128
Member States (following the accession) 3 236 3 096 1 550
sub-total 70 %37 477 6 513 5 942 2 915
Financial agreements (75% Guarantee rate) 7 712 7 062 7 174 1 049
Pre-Accession countries 1 350  713  720  122
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 6 362 4 492 4 495  844
Member States (following the accession) 1 857 1 958  83
sub-total 75 %37 712 7 062 7 174 1 049
Financial agreements (100% Guarantee rate) 6 653 5 320 5 145 1 008Pre-Accession countries
4 700  29  29  9
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries  750  315  84  80
Asia and Latin America  903  710  717  141
South Africa  300  285  202  41
Member States (following the accession) 3 982 4 113  737
sub-total 100 %36 653 5 320 5 145 1 008
Total  67 702 44 440 32 807 17 401
(3) Percentage figures relate to the Guarantee rate.
(5) Including Turkey Terra and Special Action Turkey.(4) Loans to New Member States were drawn from 'Pre-Accession countries' or from 'Neighbourhood and Partnership countries' ceil ings. Bulgaria and Romania are 
included in the "New Member States".TABLE A1: CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPERATIONS DISBURSED at 31.12.2008 (in EUR million)
(2) The overall ceiling is EUR 4 000 million for loans to Member  States and non-member States. By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21  March 1994, the Council decided to 
extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in certain non-member States.
ANNEX TO TABLE A1: SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS at 31.12.2008 (in EUR million)
EN 6   EN Ranking Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 until 2038 Total Outstanding
1 Turkey  293.4  308.2  314.5  344.6  341.0  351.2  337.0 2 558.2 4 848.1
2 Romania  264.5  256.1  269.3  214.9  214.1  194.6  193.7 1 056.7 2 663.7
3 Hungary  93.7  90.8 2 089.9  22.5  13.6  9.0  8.6  6.5 2 334.7
4 Egypt  208.7  194.6  184.6  177.4  170.6  150.9  150.5  904.1 2 141.4
5 Morocco  137.1  140.1  146.7  148.7  149.0  141.4  126.7  939.5 1 929.36 Tunisia  131.2  138.3  136.6  137.5  140.6  134.7  127.9  736.6 1 683.3
7 Serbia  56.9  57.4  64.4  105.6  102.7  110.6  160.1  536.1 1 193.8
8 Bulgaria  96.1  85.8  69.8  82.4  67.8  68.3  64.8  278.8  813.8
9 Czech Republic  144.3  81.7  72.9  70.3  67.8  56.4  45.7  130.0  669.1
10 South Africa  115.2  67.2  56.9  70.6  43.0  45.4  39.6  197.8  635.611 Poland  85.8  81.3  78.8  76.3  70.5  53.1  43.1  142.2  631.1
12 Brazil  80.8  63.7  48.4  42.5  71.0  94.7  204.8  14.6  620.6
13 Croatia  31.7  31.1  39.7  42.7  42.8  39.4  38.5  301.8  567.7
14 Syria  35.6  43.3  43.3  43.3  41.6  41.6  39.4  248.0  536.1
15 Lebanon  70.6  63.5  64.1  64.0  58.6  40.9  39.9  106.7  508.316 Slovak Republic  66.2  65.5  66.0  51.0  37.2  25.8  15.1  116.1  442.9
17 Bosnia and Herzegovina  33.1  31.4  31.7  55.0  27.0  26.4  67.1  130.4  402.2
18 Jordan  45.8  41.1  39.5  36.8  30.4  24.5  16.9  63.9  299.0
19 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia  27.5  25.4  25.1  26.9  23.4  25.4  23.8  82.7  260.3
20 Albania  13.4  13.4  13.3  14.5  12.5  14.2  14.0  100.4  195.721 Israel  8.0  8.9  10.2  10.1  10.2  10.4  8.7  108.4  175.0
22 Peru  8.3  10.2  17.8  18.7  18.5  15.1  15.1  30.7  134.4
23 Indonesia  15.6  18.9  15.1  12.4  12.4  12.4  12.4  29.8  129.2
24 Sri Lanka  4.9  3.2  4.8  7.8  10.5  13.2  13.2  53.5  111.1
25 Vietnam  10.7  14.4  14.9  14.9  14.8  14.6  6.9  12.6  103.726 Slovenia  26.2  20.8  14.3  11.4  9.4  7.4  4.4  2.1  96.1
27 Colombia  1.4  4.2  9.9  9.9  9.9  9.9  9.9  37.2  92.2
28 Pakistan  10.5  12.0  12.0  12.0  9.1  6.2  6.2  13.4  81.5
29 Russia  5.4  4.8  4.8  7.3  7.3  7.3  7.3  36.2  80.2
30 Argentina  17.7  14.7  14.6  11.5  11.4  3.8  3.8  0.0  77.531 Mexico  23.9  23.6  3.3  3.3  3.3  3.3  3.3  13.3  77.4
32 the Philippines  7.0  9.1  9.0  9.2  9.6  9.5  7.3  15.4  76.1
33 Ukraine  22.7  6.7  6.6  6.5  6.3  6.2  6.1  14.6  75.6
34 China  8.6  8.4  7.7  7.0  7.1  7.2  7.3  22.1  75.3
35 Georgia  24.2  22.7  13.8  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  60.736 Lithuania  6.4  5.7  5.5  5.3  5.1  5.0  4.8  17.9  55.6
37 Latvia  7.3  6.9  6.7  5.2  5.1  5.0  4.8  13.9  55.1
38 Montenegro  1.5  1.6  2.4  3.1  3.5  3.4  3.3  34.9  53.8
39 Maldives  2.5  3.0  4.5  5.3  5.3  5.3  5.3  17.4  48.6
40 Cyprus  9.5  9.6  9.2  7.1  4.6  3.0  0.0  0.0  43.141 The West Bank and the Gaza Strip  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  4.2  10.2  39.4
42 Ecuador  0.6  2.0  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  14.3  37.3
43 Laos  0.0  0.0  0.2  0.4  0.5  0.5  0.6  34.5  36.7
44 Panama  1.8  2.5  2.5  2.5  2.5  2.5  2.5  19.6  36.1
45 Paraguay  0.2  0.0  3.6  7.2  7.2  7.2  7.2  3.6  36.146 Algeria  7.1  6.9  6.7  6.0  5.3  2.2  0.0  0.0  34.2
47 Thailand  6.0  5.0  4.6  6.3  8.6  2.1  0.0  0.0  32.5
48 Tadjikistan  1.0  0.6  0.6  12.5  12.2  4.0  0.0  0.0  30.9
49 Bangladesh  4.9  4.9  4.9  4.8  4.8  0.0  0.0  0.0  24.3
50 Uruguay  1.6  1.9  2.4  2.8  3.3  3.6  2.8  4.2  22.6
51 Costa Rica  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  0.0  0.0  0.0  18.3
52 El Salvador  2.7  2.1  2.0  0.9  1.3  1.3  1.2  5.2  16.753 India  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  16.0
54 Malaysia  3.1  3.0  1.8  1.8  0.9  0.0  0.0  0.0  10.7
55 Estonia  1.0  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  3.5
56 Malta  0.7  0.7  0.7  0.7  0.3  0.0  0.0  0.0  3.0
57 Republic of Moldova  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.1  0.1  0.1  0.6  1.1
Total outstanding 2 295.8 2 130.9 4 088.4 2 057.3 1 950.7 1 828.8 1 910.1 9 216.4 25 478.3
Member States 801.8 705.8 2684.0 547.7 495.5 427.6 385.0 1764.2 7811.6Table A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget in EUR million based on the amounts (capital and interest) due under all operat ions 
(MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 31.12.2008
 
EN 7   EN 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee  
Tables A3a, A3b(1), A3b(2) and A4 
Instrument Decision Date of Loan Guarantee Maturity Loan Amount Outstanding Outstanding
decision term Rate Date situation decided amount amount
(years)  - closed (a) at 30.06.2008 at 31.12.2008
 - partially disbursed (b) in EUR million in EUR million - disbursed in full (c) - not yet disbursed (d)
BOP 2002/332/EC (5) 18.02.02 100% (d) 25 000.00  0.00 2 000.00
Hungary 2009/102/EC 04.11.08 100% (b) 6 500.00 2 000.00
1st tranche 09.12.08 3 09.12.2011 (c) 2 000.00
EURATOM (3) 100% 4 000.00  434.50  432.50
77/270-271/Euratom 29.03.77 (c)  500.00
80/29/Euratom 20.12.79 (c)  500.00
82/170/Euratom 15.03.82 (c) 1 000.0085/537/Euratom 05.12.85 (c) 1 000.0090/212/Euratom 23.04.90    (b)(4) 1 000.00
Bulgaria  212.50
     1st tranche 20 10.05.2021 (c)  40.00  40.00
     2nd tranche 15 15.01.2017 (c)  13.50  12.75     3rd tranche 17 19.08.2019 (c)  25.00  25.00     4th tranche 15 18.06.2018 (c)  25.00  23.75     5th tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c)  35.00  35.00     6th tranche 16 10.09.2020 (c)  30.00  30.00     7th tranche 16 04.04.2021 (c)  25.00  25.00
     8th tranche 14 23.02.2020 (c)  17.50  17.50
Romania  223.50
     1st tranche 17 21.07.2022 (c)  100.00  100.00
     2nd tranche 19 26.11.2024 (c)  90.00  90.00     3rd tranche 18 23.02.2024 (c)  33.50  33.50
NCI (6) 100% 6 830.00
TOTAL 35 830.00  434.50 2 432.50
(1) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Italy in 1980.
(2) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Greece in 1981.(3) Long-term loans for which the schedule of repayments depend on the dates of disbursement.(4) By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21 March 1994 the Council decided to extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in cer tain non-member States.
(5) By Decision 1360/2008/EC of 2 December 2008 the Council decided to increase the ceilin g from EUR 12 000 million to EUR 25 000 million.
(6) Decisions abrogatedAs Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU as of 01.01.2007, the outstanding amounts under the Euratom instrument are covered by the  Euratom Decisions dedicated to 
the Member States.TABLE A3a
Borrowing and lending operations by the Communities to Member States 
Period 30.06.2008 to 31.12.2008
 
EN 8   EN TABLE A3b (1)
 European Community (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States*
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 30.06.2008 to 31.12.2008, broken down by countries and tranche
* Member States as of 01.01.2007 in EUR million 
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 30.06.2008 Amounts Amounts at 31.12.2008
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
    BULGARIA III* 97/472/EC 22.07.97 250.00
     1st tranche 10 10.02.2008 (c) 125.00 0.00 0.00
     2nd tranche 10 22.12.2008 (c) 125.00 31.25 31.25 0.00
    BULGARIA IV* 99/731/EC 08.11.99 100.00
     1st tranche 10 21.12.2009 (c) 40.00 20.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 60.00 45.00 15.00 30.00
    ROMANIA III* 94/369/EC 20.06.94 125.00
     1st tranche 7 20.11.2002 (a) 55.00 0.00  0.00
     2nd tranche 7 20.11.2004 (a) 40.00 0.00 0.00
     3rd tranche 7 23.12.2004 (a) 30.00 0.00 0.00
    ROMANIA IV* 99/732/EC 08.11.99 200.00   
     1st tranche 10 29.06.2010 (c) 100.00 50.00 50.00
     2nd tranche 10 17.07.2013 (c) 50.00 50.00 50.00
     3rd tranche  - - ( a ) 50.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA I 99/325/EC 10.05.99 20.00
     1st tranche 15 22.12.2014 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA II 02/883/EC 09.11.02  20.00
     1st tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 09.02.2021 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
   REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA I 94/346/EC 13.06.94 45.00
     1st tranche 10 07.12.2004 (a) 25.00 0.00 0.00
     2nd tranche 10 08.08.2005 (a) 20.00 0.00 0.00
    REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA II 96/242/EC 25.03.96 10 30.10.2006 (a) 15.00 0.00 0.00
    FYROM I 97/471/EC 22.07.97 40.00
     1st tranche 15 27.09.2012 (c) 25.00 25.00 5.00 20.00
     2nd tranche 15 13.02.2008 (c) 15.00 15.00 15.00
    FYROM II 99/733/EC 08.11.99 50.00
     1st tranche 15 15.01.2016 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 30.01.2017 (c) 12.00 12.00 12.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.06.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     4th tranche 15 23.12.2018 (c) 18.00 18.00 18.00
 
EN 9   EN TABLE A3b (2)  
 European Community (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Chan ges in amounts outstandin g durin g six-month period 30.06.2008 to 31.12.2008, broken down b y countries and tranche
in EUR million
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 30.06.2008 Amounts Amounts at 31.12.2008
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
  UKRAINE I 94/940/EC 22.12.94 10 28.12.2005 (a) 85.00 0.00 0.00
  UKRAINE II 95/442/EC 23.10.95 200.00   
     1/2 tranche 10 29.08.2006 (a) 50.00 0.00 0.00
     1/2 tranche 10 30.10.2006 (a) 50.00 0.00 0.00
     2nd tranche 10 25.09.2007 (c) 100.00 0.00 0.00
  UKRAINE III 98/592/EC 15.10.98 150.00
     1st tranche 10 30.07.2009 (c) 58.00 29.00 14.50 14.50
-- ( a ) 92.00
  UKRAINE IV 2002/639/EC 12.07.02 (d) 110.00
  GEORGIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 24.07.2013 (c) 110.00 57.50 57.50
  ARMENIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 30.12.2013 (a) 28.00 0.00 0.00
  REPS FORMER USSR 91/658/EEC 16.12.91 3 28.09.1997 (a) 1 250.00
  TAJIKISTAN 2000/244/EC 20.03.00 (b) 75.00
     1st tranche 15 30.03.2016 (c) 60.00 28.00 28.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2001/549/EC 16.07.01 15 17.10.2016 (c) 225.00 225.00 225.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2002/882/EC 09.11.02 55.00
     1st tranche 15 28.02.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 01.09.2018 (c) 30.00 30.00 30.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.05.2020 (c) 15.00 15.00 15.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2003/825/EC 25.11.03  -  - (a) 25.00
ALBANIA 2004/580/EC 29.04.04 15 23.03.2021 (c) 9.00 9.00 9.00
LEBANON 2007/860/EC 21.12.07 (d) 50.00
UKRAINE (Euratom) 94/179/EC 21.03.94 11 15.03.2018 (b) EUR equivalent 39.00 16.90 3.00 52.90
of USD 83 million
TOTAL  768.75 16.90 78.75 706.90
 
EN 10   EN TABLE A4 LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB in EUR million 
Date Rate Date of Amount Loans signed Amount outstanding
Geographical Area Decision of decision of guarantee guarantee decided         (minus cancellations)
contract at 30.06.08 at 31.12.08 at 30.06.08 at 31.12.08
MED. Financial protocols(1) 8.03.77 75% (2) 30.10.78/10.11.78 6 062 5 548 5 548  674  608
MED. Horizontal cooperation R/1762/92/EEC 29.06.92 75% (2) 09.11.92/18.11.92 1 800 1 656 1 656  455  441
TOTAL MED. (3) 7 862 7 204 7 204 1 129 1 049
C and E Europe I 90/62/EEC(4) 12.02.90 100% 24.04.90/14.05.90 1 000  912  912  109  120
91/252/EEC(5) 14.05.91 100% 19.01.93/04.02.93  700  493  493  11  9
C and E Europe II 93/696/EC(6) 13.12.93 100% 22.07.94/12.08.94 3 000 2 464 2 464  677  618
Asia, Latin America I 93/115/EEC 15.02.93 100% 04.11.93/17.11.93  750  571  571  129  136
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 100% 18.03.97/26.03.97  153  139  139  19  5
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 70% 21.10.97  122  122  122  14  11
South Africa 95/207/EC 01.06.95 100% 04.10.95/16.10.95  300  285  285  51  41
New mandates 97/256/EC(7) 14.04.97 70% 25.07.97/29.07.97 7 105 6 142 6 142 2 833 2 730
FYROM 98/348/EC 19.05.98 70% 29.07.98/07.08.98  150  150  150  114  117
Bosnia and Herzegovina 98/729/CE 14.12.98 70% 16.06.99/22.06.99  100  100  100  59  57
Turkey Terra 99/786/EC 29.11.99 65% 18.04.00/23.05.00  600  600  600  515  524
Mandates 2000-2007 2000/24/EC(8) 22.12.99 65% 19.07.00/24.07.00 (11) 19 460 19 008 19 002 9 933 10 976
The Baltic Sea basin of Russia 2001/777/EC(9) 06.11.01 100% 06.05.02/07.05.02  100  85  85  75  80
Russia, Belarus, Rep. Of Moldova and 
Ukraine2005/48/EC(10) 22.12.04 100% 21.12.05/09.12.05  500  230  230  1  1
Mandate 2007-2013 2006/1016/EC(12) 19.12.06 65% 01.08.07/29.08.07 (13) 27 800 3 761 5 943  364  928
TOTAL 69 702 42 264 44 441 16 034 17 400
(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under  lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78.
       By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance with the Council De cision of 7 October 1975.  
(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 5 497 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4)  Poland, Hungary.(5) Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.
(6) Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.
(7) Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.(8) South-eastern Neighbours, Mediterranean countries, Latin America and Asia, Republic of South Africa, Special action Turkey,  as amended (2005/47/EC).
(9) A special lending action for selected envir onmental projects in the Baltic Sea basin of Russia under the Northern Dimension .
(10) A special lending action for certain types of projec ts in Russia, Belarus,Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
(11) Restated and amended in 2005.
(12) Pre-Accession countries, Neighbourhood and Partnership countrie s, Asia and Latin America, Republic of South Africa.
(13) The amount decided of EUR 27 800 million is broken down into a basic ceilin g of a fixed maximum amount of EUR 25 800 million and an o ptional mandate of EUR 2 000 million.
 
EN 11   EN 1.3. Evolution of risk 
1.3.1.  Situation of loans to Member States 
The risk towards Member States should decrea se in future for the loans disbursed under 
Euratom, MFA, or EIB guaranteed financing. 
However, the total risk toward Member States is increasing. This situa tion is explained by the 
activation of the Balance-of-Payment2 facitity in 2008. 
Hungary will reimburse in 2011 its first tranche of EUR 2 000 million disbursed in December 
2008 (included in Graph A1). 
In addition, one tranche of EUR 2 000 millio n disbursed in 2009 for Hungary will be 
reimbursed in 2014. Another tranche of EUR 1 00 0 million for Latvia disbursed in 2009, will 
be reimbursed in 2014. These tranches are not in cluded in Graph A1 as they were not yet 
disbursed at 31 December 2008. 
Graph A1: Total Annual Risk borne by th e Budget in EUR million based on the 
amounts (capital and interest) due under op erations (MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) 
disbursed at 31.12.20083 with the Member States. (EUR million) 
05001 0001 5002 0002 5003 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015MFA
ATOM
BOP
EIB
                                                 
2 Council Regulation (EC) No 332/2002 of 18 February 2002 (OJ L 53, 23.2.2002, p.1). 
3 As of 31 December 2008, the 2009 annual risk for Member States was EUR 802 million. 
 
EN 12   EN 1.3.2.  Situations of loans to third countries 
At 31 December 2008, a total of EUR 5 307 million remained to be disbursed by the EIB 
under the EUR 20 060 million general mandate 2000– 2007 for third countries: 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
31.12.2008*  
Mediterranean 6 520 6 446 1 849
South-Eastern Neighbours** 10 235 7 394 2 365
Asia, Latin America 2 480 2 175  192
South Africa  825  824  204
Member States* 2 763  697
20 060 19 602 5 307
* EUR 2,763 million for Member States are not included (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia).
** The ceiling includes Terra Turkey and Special Action Turkey.Table A5: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2000 - 2007 
At the same date, an amount of EUR 5 053 mill ion were to be disbursed under the general 
mandate 2007-2013. 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
31.12.2008  
A. Pre-Accession Countries 8 700 2 397 2 091
B. Neighbourhood and partnership countries 12 400 2 570 2 295
C. Asia and Latin America 3 800  774  470
D. South Africa  900  203  197
  
25 800 5 944 5 053Table A6: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2007 - 2013
 
Graph A2: total Annual Risk borne by the B udget in EUR million based on the amounts 
(capital and interest) due under all operation s (MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 
31.12.2008 with the third countries. (EUR million) 
1 200 1 250 1 300 1 350 1 400 1 450 1 500 1 550 
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ATOM
MFA
EIB
*It should be noted that, following an action un dertaken by the Parliament, on 6 November 
 
EN 13   EN 2008 the Court of Justice annulled Council D ecision 2006/1016/EC on the grounds that it 
should have been adopted under a dual legal basi s. The Court, while annulling the Decision, 
ordered “ that its effects be maintained for EIB financing arrangements entered into before the 
entry into force, within a period of 12 months from the date of delivery of this judgment, of a 
new decision adopted on the appropriate legal  basis, namely Articles 179 EC and 181a EC 
together ”. The Commission adopted a proposal to th e European Parliament and the Council to 
replace the annulled decision on 14 January 2009 COM (910) 2008. 
The Graph A3 presents simulations of some scenarios of disbursements under the mandates 
preceding the general mandate 2007-2013, as well as under the general mandate 2007-2013. The rhythm of disbursements has a strong imp act on the amount of the provisioning of the 
Fund in future years. 
Graph A3: Estimated outstanding amount covered by the Fund from 2009 to 2015. 
5 0007 50010 00012 50015 00017 50020 00022 50025 00027 50030 00032 500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EUR million
 
1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees4 
1.4.1.  Borrowing/lending operations 
In this type of operation, the Community bo rrows on the financial market and on-lends the 
proceeds (back-to-back) to Member States (balance of payments), third countries (macro-financial assistance) or utility companies (Euratom). 
The loan repayments are scheduled to match th e repayments of the borrowings due from the 
Community. If the recipient of the loan is in default, the Commi ssion must draw on its 
resources to repay the borrowing on the due date. 
                                                
 
4 The Communities have granted loans and guaranteed  loans to accession countries. Those loans and 
guarantees were covered by the Gu arantee Fund and remain outstanding after the date of accession. 
From that date, they cease to be external actions of the Communities and are th erefore covered directly 
by the Budget. 
 
EN 14   EN The funds needed to pay the Budget guarantee in the event of late payment by the recipient of 
a loan granted by the Community are raised as follows: 
a) the amount required may be taken provisi onally from cash resources in accordance 
with Article 12 of Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 
implementing Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Eu ratom of 7 June 2007 on the system 
of the Communities' own resources. This me thod is used so that the Community can 
immediately repay the borrowing on the date scheduled in the event of late payment 
by the recipient of the loan; 
b) if the delay reaches three months af ter the due date, the Commission draws on the 
Fund to cover the default. The funds obtai ned are used to replenish the Commission's 
cash resources; 
c) the transfer procedure can be used to provide the Budge t heading with the 
appropriations needed to cover the defau lt. This method is used when there are 
insufficient appropriations in the Fund and must be authorised in advance by the 
budgetary authority; 
d) the re-use of recovered funds, if any. 
1.4.2.  Guarantees given to third parties 
The Community provides a guarantee in respec t of financing grante d by the EIB under the 
external mandates. When the recipient of a gua ranteed loan fails to make a payment on the 
due date, the EIB asks the Community to pa y the amounts owed by the defaulting entity in 
accordance with the relevant guara ntee agreement. The guarantee call must be paid within 
three months of receiving the EIB's request. Th e EIB administers the loan with all the care 
required by good banking practice and is obliged to seek to recover the pa yments due after the 
guarantee has been activated. 
Since the entry into force of the Regulation establishing the Guaran tee Fund for external 
actions5, the provisions of the Agreement be tween the Community and the EIB on 
management of the Fund state that, after the EIB calls in the guarantee in the event of a 
default, the Commission must  authorise the Bank to with draw the corresponding amounts 
from the Fund within three months. 
If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the guarantee 
is the same as for borrowing /lending operations, see 1.4.1 above. 
An Implementation Agreement was concluded between the Community and the EIB on 20 
and 22 January 1999 to determine recovery pr ocedures in connection with Community 
guarantees to the EIB. This agreement was revi sed in order to reflect the provisions of 
Council Decision 2006/1016/EC of 19 Decembe r 2006 granting a Community guarantee to 
the EIB against losses under loans and loan guarantees for projects outside the Community6. 
The new Recovery Agreement, which has replaced the Implementation Agreement for new operations, was signed by the Community  and the EIB on 1 and 29 August 2007. 
1.4.3.  Activation of Budget guarantees 
If a borrower defaults on an EIB loan guarant eed by the Budget, the Community guarantee is 
called upon at the earliest  three months after th e date on which payment has fallen due. The 
                                                
 
5 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 2728/94 of 31 October 1994 establishing a Guarantee Fund for 
external actions (OJ L 293, 12.11.1994, p. 1).  
6 OJ L 414, 30.1.2.2006, p. 95. 
 
EN 15   EN Community will act within three months of recei ving such a letter from the EIB calling for the 
guarantee to be activated, aut horising the EIB to take the corresponding amounts from the 
Fund (see 1.4.2 above). 
For loans granted by the EC or Euratom, defau lt interest owed by loan beneficiaries for the 
time between the date on which cash resources are made available by the Budget and the date 
of activation of the Fund is dr awn from the Fund and repaid to  the Budget. For EIB loans, 
default interest is calculated during the peri od between the due date  of a defaulted loan 
instalment and the date of receipt of the cash resources by the EIB from the Commission. 
From the date of payment to the EIB, de fault interest is due to the Commission. 
 
EN 16   EN 2. COUNTRY -RISK EVALUATION  
Third countries other than those presented in th e main report, but repr esenting important risks 
to the Budget in 2009, notably through EC macro-financial a ssistance, Euratom loans or 
guarantees of EIB projects relate d financing, and either categor ised as “severely indebted” 
according to criteria set by the World Bank or f acing significant imbalances in their external 
or debt situation, are also included in the risk evaluation. The country risk evaluation 
presented below comprises short analys es and tables of risk indicators. 
Explanatory notes for country-risk indicators 
Standard footnotes  
a) Includes only EC and EIB loans (outst anding disbursements) to CEEC, NIS and 
MED. 
b) The higher the ranking number, the lowe r the creditworthiness of the country. 
 Countries are rated on a scale of zero to 185; 185 represents the least chance of 
default. A given country may improve its ra ting and still fall in the ranking if the 
average global rating for all rated countries improves. 
Abbreviations and English words used in tables  
S&P Standard and Poor's 
CCFF Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility 
EFF Extended Fund Facility FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product SBA Stand-By Arrangement STF Systemic Transformation Facility est. estimates m EUR EUR million bn USD USD billion n.a. not available 
 
 
EN 17   EN 2.1. Candidate countries  
2.1.1.  Turkey 
In Turkey , annual GDP growth was 1.2% in real te rms in 2008. The growth slump is broad-
based and is expected to con tinue in 2009, due to the sharp c ontraction in external demand, 
weak consumer and business confidence and tight er lending. Nevertheless, Turkey has proven 
relatively resilient to the global financial crisis so far, particularly in the banking sector. The current account deficit declined from 5.7% in  2007 to 5.6% of GDP in 2008, but is expected 
to decline below 2% of GDP in 2009, given th e collapse of imports. The recent sharp decline 
of external deficits together with a reasonable roll-ov er of debt by the Turkish private sector 
ease concerns over external financing constrai nts although uncertainty remains going forward.  
Gross FDI inflows fell from 3.3% of GDP in 2007 to 2.4% of GDP in 2008. The external debt of the country rose slightly to 38% of GDP in 2008. Central bank reserves dropped somewhat 
in nominal terms and in terms of months of imports in 2008. Turkey's large external re-
financing needs are expected to feel gradually the adverse effect  of the global credit squeeze. 
The currency has already been under heavy pre ssure and lost about a quarter of its value 
against the euro in 2008. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Turkey footnotes 2006 2007 2008
*estimate
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.9 4.6 *1.2
Industrial production (% change) 5.8 5.4 -0.9
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 10.5 10.6 12.3
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 9.7 8.4 10.1
Exchange rate (end of period) (TL per EUR) 1.86 1.72 2.15
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -1.2 -1.3
Balance of payment s Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 95 780 105 110 119 180
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -5.7 -5.6
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 15370 14530 10340
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m EUR 48490 53500 48440
   months' imports of goods and services 5.0 5.0 4.1
External debt Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 164 013 180 292 189 116
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 31 927 35 547 34 694
   principal (m EUR) 24 797 26 591 25 952
   interest (m EUR) 7 130 8 957 8 742
External debt/GDP (%) 39.2 37.9 38.3
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 171.2 171.5 158.7
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 33.3 33.8 29.1
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none noneDebt relief agreements and rescheduling none none none
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 972 2 285 4 848
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 22.6 22.4 34.5
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1.2 1.3 2.6
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 2.1 2.2 4.1
IMF arrangement
s Type SBA SBA SBA
(Date) (05/08) (05/08) (until 05/08)
On track yes yes yes
Indicators of market's 
perception of creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Ba3 Ba3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- BB-
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 71    69 72     68 69    76   (number of countries) (185)   (185)
(185)  (185) (185)  (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking 72    74 71    71 70     70
   (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.  
 
EN 18   EN 2.2. Potential candidate countries  
2.2.1.  Serbia 
In Serbia  real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% in 2008. The current account deficit widened to 
18.2% of GDP compared to 16.5% in 2007. Howe ver, during the second half of 2008 the 
current account deficit started to narrow. Serbia became increasingly affected by the global economic crisis and imports fell substantially fa ster than exports, a trend which continued in 
early 2009. Net FDI slowed to 6.0% of GDP in 2008, compared to 6.3% of GDP in 2007. 
Foreign borrowing slowed to 9.5% of GDP in 2 008, from 10.8% a year earlier. As a result of 
the slowdown in capital inflows in 2008, foreig n exchange reserves of  the National Bank of 
Serbia declined to 3.4% of GDP but still rema ined at 6.3 months of imports. External debt 
reached at 67% of GDP. 
Country-risk indicators: Serbia footnotes 2006 2007 2008
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.6 7.1 6.0
Industrial production (% change) 4.7 3.7 0.9
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 21.6 18.8 NA
Inflation rate (RPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 6.6 10.1 3.0
Exchange rate (end of period) (CSD per EUR) 83.91 79.90 81.90
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -2.0 -2.2
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 5 102 6 432 7 428
Current account balance (% of GDP) -13.1 -16.5 -18.2
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 3 235 1 505 1 890
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR 9 025 9 641 8 160.0
months' imports of goods and services 9.5 8.2 6.3
External debt Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 14 876 17 983 21 460
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 1 974 2 140 3 400
   principal (m EUR) NA NA NA
   interest (m EUR) NA NA NA
External debt/GDP (%) 63.0 61.1 66.6External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 292 280 289
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 38.7 33.3 45.8
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) 301 1 763 2 161
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (1) yes no no
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 671 812 1 194
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 7.7 8.0 8.5
EU exposure/external debt (%) 4.5 4.5 5.6
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 13.2 12.6 16.1
IMF arrangement
s Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception 
of creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) (2) BB- BB- BB-
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 104    93 87     87 88   126   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (186)
The Institutional Investor (2) 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking 87    89 94      89 85       86
   (number of countries) (173)   (173) (173)   (173) (174)   (177)
Footnotes
(1) In November 2001, the Paris Club creditors agreed on a highly concessional two-phased debt restructuring of 66% in NPV terms .
The first phase (51%) became effective in May 2002 when the IMF adopted the new three-year Extended Arrangement (EA); 
the second phase (15%) will become effective upon successful completion on the EA.
(2) Serbia B+, Montenegro BB.
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.  
 
EN 19   EN 2.2.2.  Montenegro 
In Montenegro  the economy expanded in 2008 by 8.1% in real terms. Yet, the contraction of 
exports, but also of imports of goods, contributed to curb the current accoun t deficit in the last 
quarter of 2008. However, the cool-down of the r eal estate market reflected a decline of FDI 
by 17% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the stronger mode ration of outflows kept net FDI at similar 
levels as in the previous year (17% of GDP). The impact of the global economic crisis hit the 
domestic manufacturing sector, wh ich contracted by more than 16% in the last quarter of 
2008. Yet, given the considerably bigger share of  employment in services, this continued 
growing by 6% annually, while the unemployment rate further contracted. The public debt 
increased by nominal 21.4% in 2008. However, th e external public debt  grew much more 
moderately by 4.2% and repres ents some 14% of GDP. Overall, the consolidated budget 
recorded a surplus of 1.5% of GDP. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Montenegro footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(Estimate)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 8.6 10.7 8.1
Industrial production (% change) 1.0 0.1 -1.1
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 14.7 11.9 10.8
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 2.8 7.7 6.9
Exchange rate (end of period) (EUR per EUR) 1.0 1.0 1.0
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 2.7 6.4 1.5
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 920.9 1 333.8 1 282.0
Current account balance (% of GDP) -24.7 -29.4 -29.2Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 475.0 524.9 567.6Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m EUR 310.3 490.4 336.1
months' imports of goods and services 2.7 2.6 1.7
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 845 1 656 2 287
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) n.a. n.a. n.a.
   principal (m EUR)   interest (m EUR)External debt/GDP (%) 43.7 65.5 77.2External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 91.8 124.2 178.4Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) n.a. n.a. n.a.Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) 0 0 0Debt relief agreements and rescheduling yes yes yes
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 75 63 54
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 0.9 0.6 0.4EU exposure/external debt (%) 8.8 3.8 2.4EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 8.1 4.7 4.2
IMF arrangements Type none none none
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's 
perception of creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none Baa1 Baa1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB/Positive/B BB+/Stable/B BB+/Negative/BEuromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (b) none none none   (number of countries)
(185)  (185) (185)  (185) (185)  (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08   Position in the ranking 87   89 89    96 87  88
   (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
Footnotes
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.  
 
EN 20   EN 2.3. New Independent States  
2.3.1.  Georgia 
The geo-political situation in Georgia remains fr agile, due to the consequences of the military 
conflict with Russia. The newly-implemented mone tary policy in order to curb inflation was 
put to the test in the immediate aftermath of mi litary conflict. This forced the authorities to 
allow a 16% depreciation of the lari against th e dollar in November 2008. After several years 
of very high real GDP growth, the economy is  expected to slow down in 2009. Supportive 
fiscal and monetary policy measures aim to also  cushion the consequences  of the global crisis. 
The fiscal policy will remain accommodative, with the government budget deficit increasing 
to 7% of GDP in 2009. In view of the expected  deceleration of inflation consumer price is 
expected to decrease by 9%. Against the b ackground of a heavy dependence on external 
funding, evidenced by a current account deficit that reached more th an 20% of GDP in 2008, 
the Georgian financial sector seems to have difficulties to accede the capital 
markets.Vulnerabilities are mitigated, howev er, by the ample assistance (around 4.5 billion 
US$ over a three year period) pledged by the in ternational community at an international 
donor's conference in October 2008. In addition, in late 2008 Georgia obtained access to an 18-month IMF Stand-By Arrangement of SDR 477.1 million to help ensure market access, 
and is seeking additional MFA funding from the EU. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Georgia footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(projected)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 9.4 12.4 2.0
Industrial production (% change) 15.9 15.0 n.a.Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 13.8 13.9 n.a.
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 9 . 21 0 . 05 . 0
Exchange rate (end of period) (Lari per USD) 1.71 1.59 1.66
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -3.0 -4.7
(commitments)
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m USD) 2567 3240 3500
Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.1 -19.6 -21.1
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 1076 1562 1200
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m USD 881 1361 1378
   months' imports of goods and services 1.8 2.1 2.4
External debt Convertible currency external debt (m USD) 1 697 1 790 2 800
  (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m USD) 270 171 n.a.
   principal (m USD) 234.4 131.7 n.a.   interest (m USD) 36.0 38.9 n.a.External debt/GDP (%) 30.0 30.7 34.6External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 66 57 80Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 10.5 8.2 14.0
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) 0 0 0
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling no no no
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 86 65 61
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 1.0 0.6 0.4EU exposure/external debt (%) 6.6 5.3 3.0EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 4.4 2.9 2.4
IMF arrangement
s Type PRGF PRGF Stand-by
(Date) (06/04-06/07) (06/04-06/07) (09/08-03/10)
On track yes yes yes
Indicators of market's perception 
of creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B+ B+ BEuromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08    09/08
   Position in the ranking (b) 106    120 114    114 126    88
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (186)The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08    09/08   Position in the ranking (b) 119    113 110   117 103     92
  (number of countries) (173)  (173) (173)  (173) (174)   (177)
Footnotes
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes.  
 
EN 21   EN 2.3.2.  Ukraine 
In Ukraine,  real GDP growth decele rated strongly alre ady in 2008 (2.1% against 7.8% in 
2007), and is foreseen to collapse in 2009 (some fo recasts are as low as -12.5%). This change 
was driven by the reduction in domestic dema nd, and especially invest ment, on the back of 
the reduction of domestic credit growth and a severely curtailed access to external financing 
of the domestic financial system. In early November 2008, Ukraine concluded a stand-by 
arrangement with the IMF worth USD 16.4 billion (eight times its quota); the first USD 4.5 billion was drawn upon its approval. The programme  includes a sharp tight ening of fiscal and 
monetary policy and the implemen tation of a flexible exchange rate regime; it also envisages 
support for the domestic banking sector. The recap italisation needs of th e 17 largest Ukrainian 
banks were estimated at a US D 3 billion, including USD 1.8 bi llion needed by the foreign 
banks (also from the EU). The first programme review initially scheduled for March was delayed as the IMF staff mission that ended in ea rly February did not r each an agreement with 
the authorities due to slippages in the budgeta ry policy and several other outstanding matters, 
including a re-pegging of the currency and protectionist measur es. In mid-April, however, the 
government and the IMF staff reached an agre ement on the resumption of the lending under 
the programme, and the IMF Board will review the programme in the first half of May. In the 
meantime, the government has approached se veral bilateral donors (i ncluding the EU) for 
financial support. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Ukraine footnotes 2006 2007 2008
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.3 7.8 2.1
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 6.8 6.4 6.5Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 9.1 12.8 25.2
Exchange rate (end of period) (UAH per USD) 5.1 5.1 5.3
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -1.1 -1.5
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 39.0 49.8 67.7
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -4.1 -6.6Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 5.3 9.2 9.9Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 22.3 32.5 31.5
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 6.1 6.5 4.5
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)   interest (bn USD)
External debt/GDP (%) 50.6 57.9 60.2
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 64 81 76
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 0.7 0.8 0.5
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 1.6 1.3 1.1
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's 
perception of creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B2 Ba3 B1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- CCC+
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 78     78 76     80 76   81   (number of countries)
(185)  (185) (185)  (185) (185)  (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08   Position in the ranking (2) 75      80 78      78 79    80
   (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 22   EN 2.4. Mediterranean partners 
2.4.1.  Jordan 
The Jordanian economy maintained a strong gr owth performance in 2008, despite the sharp 
increase of the food and oil pr ices and the slowdown of the economy in the second semester. 
Real GDP growth averaged around 5.5%  but could drop to 3.5% in 2009. 
Fiscal policy has been prudent in 2008 and a llowed the fiscal deficit to narrow to 5% 
(including grants). Jord an also managed to repay a USD 2.1 billion of its external debt 
(reducing it to 62% of GDP) se nding a strong signal to its cred itors and donors. The current 
account deficit is expected to narrow to 16%  of GDP in 2009. However it still remains large 
calling for acceleration in the e xport diversification efforts. Th e agreement of the Jordanian 
government with Iraq (as of August 2008) to rece ive low priced crude oil will help reducing 
further the energy bill. 
The impact of the financial turbulences was ma nageable for the Jordanian banking sector. The 
absence of sophisticated financial instrume nts and the limited scale of most banking 
operations allowed banks to build a buffer against future short-term instability and authorities 
boosted confidence announcing a guarantee scheme of bank deposits. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Jordan footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(prelim.)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.4 6 5.5
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 13.9 13.5 12.6
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 6.3 5.4 14.9
Exchange rate (end of period) (JOD per USD) 0.7 0.7 0.71
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -4.4 -6.2 -5.5
Balance of payment s Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 5.2 5.7 6.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) -11.3 -16.7 -23.9
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 3.1 1.9 2.3
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 6.2 7.9 8.6
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 5.6 5 3.6
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)   interest (bn USD)
External debt/GDP (%) 51.9 47.0 24.0
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 359 302 299
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 4.1 3.0 2.1EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 9.1 7.8 6.4
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Baa3 Baa3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB BB BBEuromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 74    76 74     74 74    75
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 73    76 81    82 81    83
   (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
 
 
EN 23   EN 2.4.2.  Syria 
Syrian economy performed well during 2008. N on-oil GDP increased by an estimated 6 % 
however, the overall growth is estimated around 5% due to the decline of the oil production. 
Given its low integration with the global financial system Syria is likely to be only indirectly 
affected by a regional slowdown resulting from th e economic linkages with other countries in 
the region and the Gulf countries. FDI, worker  remittances and demand for Syrian exports 
may decline; therefore growth is expected to drop to 3.0% in 2009. Infl ation averaged to 
around 14.5%. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease to 8% in 2009 as a result of the fall 
in the global prices. Additionally, any significant return of the Iraqi refugees to Iraq would help demand pressures to ease. 
The fiscal deficit improved marginally to 3.5% in 2008 because public -sector salaries and 
crop purchases both increased largely offse tting the fiscal savings. For 2009, the Syrian 
government has embarked on an expansive fiscal policy which will be driven by large increases in capital expenditures but also in r ecurrent expenses. As a result, according to the 
budget the fiscal deficit will reach 9% of GD P. In early 2009, the government had secured 
around USD 600 million (including € 275 million from the EIB) for funding electricity and other development projects. The current account  deficit widened slightly to around 4% in 
2008 as a result of the d eclining oil production and is expected to widen marginally in 2009 as 
a result of the lower exporting oil prices and an expected slowdown in remittances, FDI and tourist inflows. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Syria footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(prelim.)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.1 4.2 5.2
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 8.3 8.4 9
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 10.4 4.7 14.5
Exchange rate (end of period) (SYR£ per USD) 51.0 49.9 46.5
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -3.4 -3.5
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 10.2 11.7 12.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.3 -4.1Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 0.8 1.1 2.1Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 6.7 6.4 6.7
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 13.7 11.6 9.4
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)
   interest (bn USD)External debt/GDP (%) 19.2 14.5 10.4External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 260 378 536
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 3.0 3.7             3.8            
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/AEU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 3.4 4.8             6.0            
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's 
perception of Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
Euromoney 03/06  09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 124    130 124   122 116   115   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)  (186)The Institutional Investor 03/06  09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 56    56 61    60 110  110
   (number of countries) (173)   (173) (173)   (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 24   EN 2.4.3.  Egypt 
Economic growth accelerated from 7.1% in 2007 to 7.2% in 2008 underpinned by investment, 
especially FDI and private c onsumption (also via tourism). However, the global financial 
crisis is affecting the economy of Egypt. Th e Egyptian stock market has been rallying down 
since May by more than 50%, equalling a loss of  more than 30% of GDP. This impacts the 
funding for enterprises negatively. As to the real side of the economy, economic growth 
decelerated steeply to 5.8% in Q1 and furthe r down to 4.1% in Q2 of 2009. The multitude of 
public enterprises remains a drain on the government budget and hampers a proper functioning of the internal market. The tourism s ector will slow down, as will inward foreign 
direct investment. On a positive side, inflati on has come down from the huge level of more 
than 20% in 2008 to 14 % in January 2009. The lower global energy prices are expected to 
bring down the high food prices in Egypt. So fa r, the government finances are stable, with 
deficits in the range of 7 to  8% of GDP. For this reason gr oss government debt is high, at 
almost 90% of GDP. In order to  stimulate the Egyptian economy, a fiscal package of USD 15 
billion, of which 50% will be spent be fore July 2009, is already launched. 
C ountry-risk indicators: Egypt footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(projections)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.8 7.1 7.2
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 11.5 9.5 8.5
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 4.2 11.0 11.7
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (LE p er  EUR) 7.2 7.5 8.1
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -9.2 -7.5 -7.8
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 35.9 42.5 56.6
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.6 1.7 0.5
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 6.0 10.5 12.1
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 22.9 28.4 35
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 5.9 6.1 7.5
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD) 29.6 29.9 33.9
  (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD) 59.6 54.7 60.0
   principal (bn USD)
   interest (bn USD)
External debt/GDP (%) 27.6 22.8 20.1
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 1.7 1.3 1.1
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 562 1 680 2 141
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 17.9 16.5 15.2
EU exposure/external debt (%) 7.0 8.3 8.8
EU exposure/exports of goods  and services (%) 5.7 5.8 5.3
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba2 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 68     68 71      69 68   68
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 70   70 70     72 73   71
  (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 25   EN 2.4.4.  Lebanon 
Lebanon will be affected by the crisis primarily via trade linkages, remigration of emigrant 
workers, and a decline in remittances. Given the high public and external debt and the 
reduction in oil revenue recycling from the Gu lf region, Lebanon's access to capital inflows 
will be reduced in the wake of financial risk  aversion. Reductions in capital flows may have 
important repercussions, as in  2007 Lebanon was the middle inco me country with the highest 
share of FDI inflows in domes tic investment (64%). Against this background, investment is 
set to decelerate. On the positive side, however, the well-capitalised and highly liquid banking sector has withstood the financia l headwinds quite well so far.  Stringent prude ntial regulation 
has meant that Lebanese banks were hardly involv ed in the trade in structured products. With 
foreign reserves still increasing, the stable exchange rate  to the dollar has also provided a 
cushion. Also, inflation has been falling from  its peak in mid-2008, reflecting strong global 
disinflationary forces. 
The availability of IMF fina ncing under EPCA II and the dis bursement of the first grant 
tranche of EU MFA in late December 2008 (€ 15 million) should help stabilise public 
finances. Nevertheless, Lebanese public finances  remains precarious in view of high debt and 
deficit ratios. For lack of r ecent fiscal data, the exact imp act of the crisis on the public 
accounts is difficult to estimate. Refinancing cost s being pushed up as a result of risk aversion 
would weigh on the budget. As a result of rising in terest rate spreads, the planned issue of a 
government euro bond already has to be postponed. 
Country-risk indicators: Lebanon footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(estimates)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 0.6 7.5 4.2
Industrial production (period average) (% change) n.a. n.a. n.aUnemployment rate (average) (% of labour force)      (a) n.a. n.a. n.a
Inflation rate (CPI, av) (% change) 5.6 4.1 12.1
Exchange rate (av) (L£ per USD) 1508 1508 1508
 T otal government debt (% of GDP) 177 171 162
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m USD) 3 207        4 077 5 259        
Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -7.2 -10.9Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 2 669 3 077 3 529        
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (gross useable)   m USD 11 353      11 494 17 115      
   months' imports of goods and services 7.2 6.6 7.2
External (foreign currency) government debt Convertible currency external debt (m USD)  20 330      21 221 21 550      
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m USD) 1 677        1 511        1 534        
   principal (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.a   interest (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.aForeign currency debt/GDP (%) 90.0          84 n.a
External debt/GDP (%) 196.0        197.3 190.4        
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 748           576 472           
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 61.7          41 33.6
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.aDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) n.a. n.a. n.a
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 330 354 508
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) 3.8 3.5 3.6EU exposure/external debt (%) 2.1 2.5 3.3EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 13.6 12.8 13.5
IMF arrangements Type (1) - - EPCA II
(Date) - - adopted 3-11
On track ---
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B3 B3 B 3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B- B- B-Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 98    106 111    116 127   134
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (185)   (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 101     99 109   121 115   113
   (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 26   EN 2.4.5.  Tunisia 
Economic growth in Tunisia remained buoyant in 2008 and is estimated to have reached 
around 8%. Tunisia is well-integra ted with the EU economy. While  the direct impact of the 
crisis on Tunisia's financial sector has been relatively muted, reflecting its closed character and the lack of currency convertib ility, indirect effects are being increasingly felt, in particular 
via the trade channel. Inflation peaked at around 6% in the spring of 2006 and has been 
moderating since, facilitating th e adjustment Government finances continued to improve in 
2008, even though extensive subsidies (notably on food) put a burden on public finances, Last 
year, higher food subsidies led to a marked increase in government expenditure of around 0.8 
percentage points of GDP in 2008. 
The public deficit and debt are expected to slightly increase  in 2009 in view of economic 
headwinds. The persistently high nonperformi ng loans ratio (estimated at around 17%) 
underlines the vulnerability of the Tunisian  banking sector to adverse shocks, whereas 
persistently high unemployment will remain an important challenge. 
Country-risk indicators: Tunisia footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(projections)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.7 6.3 5.1
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 14.3 14.1 14.0Consumer price inflation (average) (% change) 4.6 3.1 5.1
Exchange rate (end of period) (TD per USD) 1.32 1.27 1.23
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.9 -2.7
Balance of payment
s Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 11.5 15.0 19.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -2.6 -3.9
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 3.3 1.6 1.9
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 6.8 7.9 8.9
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 5.0 4.6 4.1
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
  (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)   interest (bn USD)External debt/GDP (%) 58.3 54.9 51.8
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 160.9 123.3 94.9
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 18.8 13 9.9Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 411 1 562 1 683
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 16.2 15.3 12.0EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/AEU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 16.2           15.3           12.0          
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa2 Baa2 Baa2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB (stable) BBB (stable) BBB (stable)Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 59    62 62    64 62    64   (number of countries) (185)    (185) (185)    (185) (185)) (186)The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08   Position in the ranking (2) 56     56 61     60 56    60
  (number of countries) (173)   (173) (173)   (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 27   EN 2.4.6.  Morocco 
Official figures forecast real GDP growth at  6.5% in 2008, and anticipate a slowdown to 5.5% 
in 2009. The economy continues to be depende nt on the agricultura l output, although non-
agricultural GDP growth continues to perform rather well, at an expected growth rate of 6% 
in 2008 and 2009. The overall fiscal deficit is projected at 3.8% in 2008 from a close-to-
balance position in 2007. The expansion in wages (an increase in the minimum wage of civil 
servants) and extraordinary sp ending on food and oil subsidies (5% of GDP compared with 
2.6% in 2007) are the key factors behind the substa ntial deterioration of the public finances in 
2008. Public deficit in 2009 is expected to rema in in the same order (3.7%) in spite of 
government’s announcements about a potential overh aul of the current subsidy system and oil 
price moderation since August 2008. Total government debt  was close to 54% of GDP end-
2007 but is expected to contract to around 52%  in 2008 and 2009 in spite of mounting levels 
of public deficit. 
Inflation has been low in recent years (1.8%  in average). Inflation peaked to 5.1% as  a result 
of high international oil and commodity prices , although it moderated to 3.5% in October. The 
current exchange rate regime is tightly ma naged against a euro-dominated basked of 
currencies. The authorities have taking gradual steps to lessen currency controls, with the aim 
of introducing a fully floating currency at an unspecified date. The external environment 
remains shaped by a substantial trade deficit standing in 2008 at 22% of GDP (2007: 19.2%). 
Large increases in tourism revenues (+13.2%) and remittances (+15.1%) have been insufficient to offset the trade deficit resulti ng in a negative current account balance standing 
at 0.7% of GDP in 2007. However, rising GDP is e xpected to consolidate the steady fall in the 
external debt-to-GDP ratio about  21% of GDP at the end of 2008. 
Country-risk indicators: Morocco footnotes 2006 2007 2008
(prelim.)
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.8 2.7 6.5
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 11.1 9.7 9.8Wholesale price Inflation (average) (% change) 3.3 2 3.5
Exchange rate (end of period) (MDH per USD) 8.8 8.2 7.8
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -0.5 -3.8
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 35.1 41.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.2 -0.1 -0.7Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 3.4 5.2 …Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 20.2 24.0 28.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 7.0 6.5 6.8
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
  (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)   interest (bn USD)External debt/GDP (%) 23.9 23.8 21.1External debt/exports of goods and services (%)Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 187 1 275 1 929
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 13.6 12.5 13.7EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/AEU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 4.5 4.5 N/A
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba2 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+Euromoney 03/06    09/06 03/07    09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 66     65 65     65 66      63   (number of countries) (185)    (185) (185)    (185) (185)   (186)The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08   Position in the ranking (2) 65    66 67      67 66    67
  (number of countries) (173)   (173) (173)   (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 28   EN 2.5. Other countries 
2.5.1.  South Africa 
South Africa could not escape the consequences of the global financial turmoil. The last 
quarters in 2008 have been the weakest in terms of growth for a decade. On top of a weak internal demand, tied by the high interest rates to limit inflati on (peaking at 14% in August), 
weakness in manufacturing and mining highlights the impact of the dramatic reduction in 
external demand. Inflation is se t to fall quickly in the coming months and the current account 
deficit should shrink significantly in 2009 on lower import demand and lower dividend 
outflow. Due to capital inflows, the overall bala nce of payments registered surpluses in all 
quarters in 2008. External debt is  below 30% of GDP. Foreign re serves are relatively high 
covering 200% of foreign currency denominated s hort-term debt and 3.5 months of imports of 
goods and services. The main risk to the outlook relates to the current account deficit that is 
primarily financed by capital inflows. In the gl obal environment of elev ated levels of risk 
aversion a slowdown in portfolio inflows or even  a sustained outflow of funds would cause a 
large depreciation of the Rand. A large depr eciation would place upward pressure on the 
inflation outlook and thus jeopardise the antici pated downward trajectory of interest rates. 
Country-risk indicators: South Africa footnotes 2006 2007 2008
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.4 5.1 4.5
Industrial production (% change) 6.2 5.8 22.5
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) (a) 25.5 23.0 11.6
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 4.7 7.1 12.08
Exchange rate (end of period) (SAR per EUR) 9.31 10.04
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 0.4 0.9
Balance of payment s Exports of goods and services in bn US $ 76.2 89.5 108.6
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 60658 65293 74282.4
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.5 -7.3 -7.6
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 14Official reserves, including gold (end of period) $25,6bn $33,0bn $34,1bn
   m EUR 32159 45234 48062
   months' imports of goods and services 3.3 3.4 3.4
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (m EUR)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR)
   principal (m EUR)
   interest (m EUR)External debt to official creditors/GDP (%) 2.0 1.8 1.6
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 7.0
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none none
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling none none none
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 721              666            636             
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 8.3               6.5             4.5              
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 1.2               1.0             0.9              
IMF arrangement
s Type none none none
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa1 Baa1 Baa1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB+ BBB+ BBB+Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (2)    55      55 55      55 55    54 
   (number of countries)
(185)  (185) (185)  (185) ( 185)   (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08
   Position in the ranking (2)    53     51   51     49    52     53
   (number of countries) (173)    (173) (173)    (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
(a) Officially registered unemployed.  
 
EN 29   EN 2.5.2.  Brazil 
Until September 2008, Brazil had showed significant resilience to the global crisis due to its 
solid macroeconomic fundamentals. However, th e deepening crisis has subsequently impacted 
the economy through the different channels of tr ansmission. GDP growth is projected to come 
down from 5.5% in 2008 to near 0% in 2009. . Although exports represent less than 15% of 
GDP, weaker global demand, jointly with low commodity prices, wh ich represent around 
50% of Brazil's exports, have turned the current a ccount surpluses of the last five years into a 
deficit, which is projected to amount to ove r 2% of GDP in 2009. Under these circumstances, 
the government has announced a fiscal pack age to prevent a more severe economic 
slowdown. However, fiscal revenues have begun to  decline, wide ning the fiscal deficit from -
1.6% of GDP in 2008 to around -2 % in 2009. At the same time, it kept its commitment to its 
inflation target (4.5% ±2 pe rcentage points). On the fina ncial markets scene, reduced 
availability of external funding following a deleverage path, rising risk aversion and 
uncertainty about Brazilian economic prosp ects have significantly tightened financial 
conditions. The local money market has experienced  particular pressure. Finally, the Brazilian 
currency has sharply depreciated (more than 45%  since September). Nevertheless, current low 
external debt, large international reserves (amounting to above $200 bn), well capitalised 
financial institutions and the fact that Brazil is one of the few emerging markets to benefit 
from the special swap facility in US dollars established in October by the US Federal Reserve 
should help the government to roll ov er the external debt due in 2009. 
Country-risk indicators: Egypt footnotes 2006 2007 2008
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 3.8 5.4 5.1
Industrial production (%) 2.8 6 3
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) 10.0 9.3 6.8
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 3.1 4.5 5.9
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (LE per EUR) 2.7 2.6 3.3
 General government balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -2.1 -1.5
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 109748 116800 140539
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.3 0.3 -1.7
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 14973 25246 17468
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 68333 131127 137585
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 8.0 14 13
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD) 158800 177960 170094
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD) 33340 37372 27602
   principal (bn USD) 23175 26160 16617
   interest (bn USD) 10165 11212 10985
External debt/GDP (%) 18.7 18.5 13.7
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 145 152 121Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 34 32 16
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 541 443 621
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) 5.7 4.4 4.4
EU exposure/external debt (%) (1) 0.4 0.3 0.3
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0.5 0.4 0.4
IMF arrangements Type
(Date) No No No
On track
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB BB+ BBB-
Euromone
y 03/06    09/06 03/07    09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 69       66 67     66 66     60  (number  of countries) (185)     (185) (185)     (185) (185)   (186)
The Institutional Investor 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08
   Position in the ranking (2) 64      61 60     57 60      52
  (number of countries) (173)   (173) (173)   (173) (174)   (177)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.