ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (77)310
V ol.1977/0104

Disclaimer
Conformément aurèglement (CEE, Euratom) n°354/83 duConseil du1erfévrier 1983
concernant l'ouverture aupublic desarchives historiques delaCommunauté économique
européenne etdelaCommunauté européenne del'énergie atomique (JOL43du15.2.1983,
p.1),telquemodifié par lerèglement (CE, Euratom) n°1700/2003 du22septembre 2003
(JOL243du27.9.2003, p.1),cedossier estouvert aupublic. Lecaséchéant, lesdocuments
classifiés présents dans cedossier ontétédéclassifiés conformément àl'article 5dudit
règlement.
Inaccordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No354/83 of1February 1983
concerning theopening tothepublic ofthehistorical archives oftheEuropean Economic
Community andtheEuropean Atomic Energy Community (OJL43,15.2.1983, p.1),as
amended byRegulation (EC, Euratom) No1700/2003 of22September 2003 (OJL243,
27.9.2003, p.1),this fileisopen tothepublic. Where necessary, classified documents inthis
filehave been declassified inconformity with Article 5oftheaforementioned regulation.
InÜbereinstimmung mitderVerordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr.354/83 desRates vom 1.
Februar 1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft undderEuropäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L43vom 15.2.1983,
S.1),geändert durch dieVerordnung (EG, Euratom) Nr.1700/2003 vom 22.September 2003
(ABI. L243vom 27.9.2003, S.1),istdiese Datei derÖffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit
erforderlich, wurden dieVerschlusssachen indieser Datei inÜbereinstimmung mitArtikel 5
dergenannten Verordnung freigegeben.

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(77)310 final.
& Brussels ,24June 1977 »
ECGNOMIC SITUATION INIKE COMMUNITY
(Communication fortheEuropean Council ,\
London .29and 30June 1977 )
CQM(77)310final .

•j^ Therecent economic trend intheCommunity countries
shows thefollowing characteristics s
- Thesharp tendency toacceleration which characterized
thelast three months of1976 hasmoderated somewhat since the
beginning oftheyear .Inthefirst three months of1977 thegross
domestic product inreal terms calculated onanannual basis
increased byonly 3to3^inrelation tothepreceding period as
against around 5*5% inthelast quarter of1976 .
– Economic progress isinsufficient toenable theever
increasing numbers ofyoung people presenting themselves onthe
employment market forthefirst time tobeabsorbed .Since last
autumn with allowance made forseasonal trends thefigure forfull-
time unemployment intheCommunity hasbarely changed :approximately
5.4million people ,around 5.1$ oftheworking population ,areout
ofwork .
- Attheendof1976 andinthefirst months of1977
exceptional circumstances –earlier large devaluations ,increases
inrawmaterial prices andincreased indirect taxes andpublic service
charges –countered thetendency forinflation rates tofall .For
thefirst four months of1977 theincrease calculated onanannual
basis wassome 14$ forthewhole oftheCommunity .
– After having worsened throughout 1976 theCommunity *s
trade balance hasbeen improving since thebeginning oftheyear
owing toaslower increase inimports .
2. Theoutlook fortheseoond half oftheyear isonthe
whole mediocre asregards growth andemployment butsome progress
canbeexpected inthefi^it against inflation andinimprovement
ofthe external balance .

– Some strengthening ofeconomic activity during the
period islikely duetoslightly tetter progress onthe export
front and incertain countries inprivate consumption .The Community *
real gross domestic product should increase byabout 3%in1977 as
opposed to4.5$in1976 .This likely increase islower than the
growth rate of3»5$ forecast inMarch andwell below both thegoal
of4/£for 1977 adopted bythe Council intheAnnual Report onthe
Economic Situation inthe Community and the objective ofthe Fourth
Medium-Term Economic Policy Programme .
– There isarisk ofanincrease inthe Community *s
overall unemployment rate .There arelikely tobemore young people
looking fortheir first jobthan in1976 and anincreasing number
ofwomen will beentering the job market .The Community unemployment
rate could rise from 5foin1976 "to5.2$ in1977.
– Afalling offinconsumer price increases isanticipated
asfood prices are expected torevert tomore normal levels and
external price –raising factors toweaken .But therise inconsumer
prices ,nearly 10$in1976,will only fall to9§$in1977 while the
differences from country tocountry will remain large .
– The increasing contribution ofNorth Seaoil and a
slight increase inworld demand ,inparticular ,should secure con­
tinued improvement ofthe Community *strade balance .The balance of
payments oncurrent account forthe Member States taken together
will beolose toequilibrium in1977 ascompared toan/8,000
million deficit in1976 .

2. Theslowness ofeconomic reoovery inthe Member States
isworrying .Afigure of3.5-4%emerges astheannual average rate
ofgrowth forthe Community for 1976-1 S?8.TheFourth Medium-Term
Economic Policy Programme setanannual average rate ofgrowth of
4.5$ "between nowand 1980.
The weakness inthe growth rate ,which ispartly bound
upwith areluctance toinvest ,means that there isconsiderable
danger ofnotreaching full employment by1980.
4. Theregulation ofoverall demand andits coordination
atCommunity level remains thevital instrument for modulating
internal demand inaccordance with balance ofpayments requirements .
Those Member States who are insurplus have undertaken totry .toreach
the economic growth objectives they have already previously set them­
selves andtotake appropriate measures ifnecessary *Those countries
with deficits must maintain full efforts toreduce price and cost
increases *

STATISTICAL APPENDIX
1-INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
2-UNEMPLOYMENT
3-CONSUMER PRICES
4-BALANCE OPTRAD3

TABLE 1
Community1973 1974
Dsnmark
F.R.Cermany
France
Insland
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Investment goods
Consumer goods
Intermediate goodsI *
7,9 -I»1
?93I3,3
10,3|3,0
10,0 4,3
6,1 I3,4
6,3 14s0
12,0 j3,8
OOi 1v•-V-*s-""is--
7»7 .0,6
6,6 !2,5ι
1,1
3,3
3,0
4.3
3.4
y-
T °7i»S
6,6
7,31975
-0,6
0,5-5,8
-7,2
-S,J
-6,7
-9,®
-5,0
.10,4
-22,9
aaa.*.u
-7,3
-3,9
-4,0
-10,81976
10,9
7,9
8,6
10,1
"ΪΛ Λ
C.
7,9
8,7
6,6
11
ï
7,7
1,9
7,8
10,3INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
($change onpreceding period )Seasonally-adjusted figures
1975
III
2,2
0,3
-1,0
«►0,6
-0,3
-2,0
-1,0
-10,0
»Ac-VJW
-0,5
-1,0
2,1
-1,7IV
4,9
4.3
3,7
1,5
3,7
8.4
1.5
9,9
Αβ
3,9
1,4
2,13.7
2.8
4.8
4.3
4,9 -
M,9
4.9
3,7
9
3.4
0,9
2.5
5,3 5,21976
ri
2.3
2.4
1.5
3,0
4,8
1,0
5,3
8,2
0*2
2,2
1,6
3,0
2,2III
0,4
0,4
0,6
3,4
0,3
1.3
0,1
-3,5
0,0
0,5
-0,5
0,7
1,3Γ/
0,2
1.6
0,5
1,5
6.7
1.1
1.7
0,4
1.8
2,0
1,7
3.2
2,0197?
IJan,
1.2
1.5
3.5
••
M'
o,i
0,4
2.3
2.7
2.4
2.8
1,4
2.6-1,7
5,9
3,6
••
-0,9
-0,5
4.8
7,2
M
3,1
4.9
3,1
2,1Feb.
1,9
1.7
0,9
:
0,0
2.1
1.2
5,4
Ojù
-r
1,0
0,0
15
141>ΙδΓ ^
6,3
0,8
1,2
·*»
M
0,8
0,1
6,0Apr.
3.5
-2,0
«r»
-3*3
1.6
1,5
-2,8
-I.i i
0,4 0,4
0,l[0,4
"
Oj1!1,6
i
1,01-1,1 i.
Source t50EC "

TABLE 2
UÎIEKPLOYKGNT
Unempl o.ymentrates^since 1973
jDenmark
F.R *Qemanv
!
:Prance
1
1
!Ireland .
j
\Italy
Netherlands
!
I
jBelgium
|Luxembourg
iUnited Kingdom
Community1973 1974 1975 1976
Annual average
1,0
1,0
1.8
5.9
5.3
2.4
2,9
2.5
2,52,1
2,2
2,2
6,2
5,1
2,7
3,1
0,0
2,3
2,95,2
4,2
3,8
ε,7
5,7
4,1 .
5,2
0,2
3,0
4,44,9
4,0
4.2
9,8
6.0
4.1
6,7
0,3
5.3
5,01975
III
5.4
4.5
3,9
9,1
5,9
4»3
5,8
0,1
4,1
4,7IV
5.3
4.4
4,4
9,4
6,JO
4,4
6,3
0.4
4,8
4,91976
5,1
4.5
4.3
9.6
5,9
4.4
6,3
0,3
4,9
5,0II
4,8
4,0
4.2
9.8
6,0
4.3
6,6
0,3
5,2
4.9III
4,9
4.0
4.1
10,0
6,1
4,5
7.0
0,4
5,7
5.1IV
4,8
3,8
4,3
9.8
6,1
4,3
7,1
0,4
5,5
4.91977
5,6
3,8
4,3
9,6
6.3
4.0
7.1
0,5
5.4
5,0Apr.
5,9
3,8
4.5
9.6
6,5
* Λ
<ί,ν
7,2
0,5
5,4
5,1May
5,8
3t8
4,6
9,5
6,5
4,1
7,4
0,5
5,3
(1)Number ofregistered unemployed as£ofcivilian labour force.Asdefinitions arenotuniform ,unemployment rates arenot -
comDarable from country tocountry . – #
Source :S02C andCoraniscion staif .

}
TABLE l
CONSUMER PRICES . –--- \
1
I %change onpreceding period , May ;'7t
"May *11
1973 1974
i1975 197o1975 19761977
III IV I II III 17 I Apr# May
Denmark 9,3 15»3 9,5 9,0 1,8 -0,7 3,1 4,0 1,5 3,9 2,3 t1,0
LI
F#R.Germany 7,0 7,0 3,9 4,6 0,8 0,9 1,7 1,5 0,1 0,5 1.9 0,5 0,4 3,8
Prance 7,3 13,5 11,7 9,6 2,2 2,29.Λ
r 2,3 2,3 2,6 1,6 1,3: ι
Ireland 11,3 17,0 20,9 17,9 -0,8 2,7 7,3 6,3 1,5 4,2 3,8 •- t *
Italy 10,8 19,2 17,0 36,7 1,9 * 2,9 4,2 6,3 2,8 |
i6,4 4,7 1,1 1,2 18,3
Netherlands 8,1 9,3 9,9 «,9 1,9 2,3 1,7 3,4 0,7 2,5 0,7 1,7 0,5 7,o
Belgiura 6,1 12,7 12,8 9,2 2,3 2,9 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,7 2,0 0,5 1,0 7,3
Luxembourg 6,1ι
9,5 iS I
f10,o ji. !
I*'° I?.τ[2,1 I3,0 2,5 2,3ιi *^ 'x,or . i
[1,0 I[2,30,6 !
i[0,4 , i»*
United Kingdom |-»2 1-5,0r>16,5 4,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 2,3 4,6 5,0 2,6 0.8 17,0
Community |
■ - ■ -18,2 13,0 13,4 11,0 2,2 !2,2 j2,7 3,1 1,6 3,0 2,9 i1,3iiL
Source :SC.JC

Tft'ole 4
BALANCE OP TP.ADS
Seasonally adjusted ,Emillion
I
Ir
19761975 1976 197?
1973 1974
j1975I ΓΙ
iU­I II III IV IMarch Apri
atcruarteriy
Denmark -1584 2306
i-1348 -3188 -230i
I-192 «371 -555 -663 -726 -819Γ 1-835î
-1C02bVV
-567
F.R. GernanyI1707A
i?Q26Q!15448
i12994
I
1fr«rv
i-rt r
I«no I1
7414-rr«rr
!?r\~*cjur J7474JIJî 374/J«H 3473 !3451/ΛΡΛ1CJUI 1C/\A
jjuVT
1
Germany -1423 ,I
!-7141i
I il
-1894 :l
-8291 |t
|-609
i91 -174 -1202 -1460
i-1480
I
I-2400
i-2951
i
i
i-2518 -2635
i-2215
Ireland - 684I
!-1211 j
I IL609
I-857 |-234
I-154 -88 -132 -274 -163 -207 -214 -332
!-336 -243
Italy___r:CJL+j*yvv I1
1-riu-rt .j
l-3161
: i!-6216 ]
i I-787
i-598 -,/«/· ϊ
f !I
1 ILW
II-1370
L"
f
I-1747 -1179 -1920 -1510 I-1462 [-1352
[
Netherlands - 431- 145l
- 745I
-1170 -404 -89!-190
I
[- 61 122 -598 j-241
l-453[(-675)
i
iI •
!
Belgc-^uxsrnpouj -g1Ecor-oac Union
United KingdomI
iCC i
I
-8555 ^■i 1n •» <'
1'j
-15985'
I-394
-9642-717
-9370231
-2824I
■-321
-2301<IA I–
-2623 -1895te
-1617-243
-2395- "5ΠΟ
4.W /
-2635!-52
-2723-345
-2331- 12?
-2211.
r »
-1697
I
Community (l) -4592 jI
-20549 -4504-19476 ]
i-827 451 -1344 ;-2784 -3321 -4784 -5071 -6299 (-5300 :(-2800 )
^l)ConEunity •Extra –Corrxiunity trade#
eourc «Ja.TCar..iCo-Mission staff *