EN    EN EN 
 
EN    EN  COMMISSION OF THE E UROPEAN COMMUNITIES 
Brussels, 16.12.2008 
SEC(2008) 3058 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
 
accompanying the 
 
COMMUNICATION FROM THE CO MMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMI TTEE OF THE REGIONS 
New Skills for New Jobs  
Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs 
  
{COM(2008) 868 final} 
 
EN 2   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 4 
1.1. Purpose of the Staff Working Document ..................................................................... 4 1.2. Rationale................................................................................................................. ...... 4 
1.3. Early identification of skills needs: main concepts, strengths and weaknesses ........... 5 2. A FIRST ASSESSMENT OF JOBS AND SKILLS NEEDS IN EUROPE UP 
TO 2020........................................................................................................................ 9 
2.1. Overall trends in job cr eation and labour supply ....................................................... 10 
2.1.1. Sector trends: service ac tivities still expanding ......................................................... 10 
2.1.2. The size of the workforce: current tr ends and anticipated developments .................. 13 
2.1.3. Quantitative imbalances in labour demand and supply.............................................. 16 2.2. Evolving skills demand and supply: risks and opportunities ..................................... 19 2.2.1. Higher skills requirements: the result of various factors............................................ 19 
2.2.2. Rising inequalities as a consequen ce of shifts in skills demand? .............................. 28 
2.2.3. Skills matches and mismatches.................................................................................. 31 3. ANTICIPATION AND MATCHING: AN EVALUATION OF EXISTING 
PRACTICES AT NATIONAL AN D INTERNATIONAL LEVEL.......................... 37 
3.1. Mapping and evaluation of anticipatory tools at international level and in 
European countries..................................................................................................... 37 
3.1.1. Measuring skill shortages........................................................................................... 37 3.1.2. Quantitative model-based projections........................................................................ 38 3.1.3. Surveys................................................................................................................. ...... 41 
3.1.4. Foresight: examples at sect oral or regional level....................................................... 44 
3.1.5. Towards holistic approaches? .................................................................................... 50 3.1.6. Issues arising from the review of antici patory tools: is Eur ope lagging behind? ...... 52 
3.2. Mapping and evaluation of ma tching policies in Europe........................................... 52 
3.2.1. Changes in policies and practice resulti ng from anticipation and assessment of 
skill needs................................................................................................................... 5 3 
3.2.2. Matching processes involving em ployers and social partners ................................... 62 
3.2.3. Issues arising from the re view of matching policies .................................................. 66 
 
EN 3   EN 4. References .................................................................................................................. 66 
5. Annexes..................................................................................................................... . 72 
 
EN 4   EN 1. INTRODUCTION 
1.1. Purpose of the Staff Working Document 
This staff working paper accompanies the Comm unication on ‘New Skills for New Jobs’. It 
presents the empirical and theoretical ev idence upon which the policy messages of the 
Communication are based. Section 2 provides a first assessment of  the skills and labour market 
needs of the EU up to 2020 and identifies the possible risks of mismatches between supply and 
demand. This first analysis needs to be followe d by continuous efforts to anticipate and match 
future skills and labour market needs.  
A decision to introduce comprehensive and regular  assessments at EU level up to 2020 should 
take account of existing initiatives and instrument s to anticipate labour market trends and skills 
needs not only at EU level, but also at regional and sectoral level. Secti on 3 presents an analysis 
of the state of pl ay across Europe. 
The document is based upon and has been informed by: - The Cedefop reports, Future skill needs in Europe: Synthesis report  and Future skill needs in 
Europe: Focus on 2020 . 
- The report of the European Experts Network on  the Economics of Education on this topic, 
entitled Origins and consequences of changes in Labour Market Skills Needs . 
- Responses from the Eurydice network on the topic and analysed by GHK during the summer 
of 2008. 
- Responses of the European Employment Obse rvatory’s SYSDEM correspondents on the topic 
and analysed by GHK during the summer of 2008. 
- The CEDEFOP discussion paper, Systems for anticipation of sk ills needs in EU Member 
States , based on the analysis of answers from vari ous networks of national experts and policy 
makers (ReferNet; DGVET; Skillsnet). 
- General literature and published reports on the demand for and supply of skills in the EU until 
2020 and beyond and commentaries on labour market fo recasting and other anticipatory tools. 
- A specific report produced on behalf of the Commission
1. 
1.2. Rationale 
Nobody is able to predict precisely what the fu ture will hold, but everyone has to prepare and 
plan in order to avoid undesirable outcomes a nd to make the most of  the opportun ities they 
encounter. The sum of these indi vidual plans and choices will infl uence the future path taken 
by Europe as a whole. These plans and choices need to be guided by robust labour market 
                                                 
1 Report commissioned from GHK with contributions from Professor Rob Wilson, Professor Klaus 
Schömann, Dr Frank Cörvers and Dr Sylvie-Anne Meriot. 
 
EN 5   EN information, including a prospective element. The key question therefor e is not whether an 
attempt should be made to anticipate the future, but rather how to go about it2. Rather than 
relying on luck, or upon individuals’ own (possi bly ill-informed) judgments, those involved in 
producing projections argue that there is a case  for the State providing such information as a 
public good, based on the applicat ion of transparent, systema tic and scientific methods.  
The essential rationale for for ecasting and the basis for the pub lic sector fundi ng of forecasting 
and the associated data collectio n is that labour markets are impe rfect and that there are long 
and variable lags between decisions on invest ment in skills and when these are finally 
available. Without such information there are likel y to be more or greater mismatches in labour 
supply and demand. This is likely to be reflect ed in a combination of wage inflation, 
unemployment, unfilled vacancies and associat ed inefficiencies. Hence, by funding data 
collection and forecasting work the public sector  is providing a public good available to public 
and private sector actors to he lp inform decisions to inve st in improving human capital. 
The assessment and anticipation of skills and labour  market needs is seen as a key instrument: 
for the efficient functioning of labour markets and the mobility of labour within the EU; for a better match between labour supply and dema nd to reduce bottlenecks; and for a better 
definition of the content and structure of educati on and training systems as they seek to develop 
human resources, skills levels, creativity and entrepreneurship. Many Member States currently 
carry out such activities, but until recently little  has been done at pan-Eu ropean level. Given the 
increasing interdependency of European labo ur markets and the growth in cross-border 
mobility, the case for a pan-European assessment has strengthened. 
While this approach is important for policy (esp ecially in education a nd training provision), it 
has an equally important role in providing robust informati on for individual citizens and 
organisations. In a rapidly changing economi c and social environment, policy-makers, 
practitioners and citizens have to  be able to identify and respond promptly to new skill needs. 
Such decisions should depend on reliable information provided by research.  
1.3. Early identification of skills needs: main concepts, strengths and weaknesses 
There is a long tradition of fo recasting skills needs in Europe
3. Recently, the terms ‘labour 
market assessment’, ‘anticipation’ and ‘early identification of skills needs’ have become popular. These terms are used as umbrella concepts for the vari ous tools and studies to better 
anticipate skills needs.  
The earliest work in the skills area used terms like ‘m anpower planning’,  which involved 
estimating the numbers of scientists, engineers and the like needed to produce a unit of output 
in the various sectors of the economy. Many labour  and education ministries across the western 
world were engaged in such ‘manpower for ecasting’. At that time,  forecasters adopted 
scientific methods based on the assumption of fixed and invarian t links between the demand for 
goods and services and the demand for various types of labour. It was argued that this approach 
could be used to predict the major skills needed to ensure economic growth. 
                                                
 
2 Wilson, 2007a and b. 
3 There have been many reviews of the history of skills forecasting (for example see Neugart and 
Schömann (2002), Wilson et al.  (2004), Wilson (2008a) and Cedefop (2008)). 
 
EN 6   EN However, the first evaluations of the results of ‘manpower forecasting’ in the UK during the 
1970s and the emerging human capital  theory and its app lication led to critic ism of this method. 
The main criticisms were that: the models we re static; they did not take account of the 
interactions between supply and demand nor of wider changes and influences on skills needs; 
and they ignored the possibility of substitutio n both between different types of skills (and 
sectors) and between capital and labour. The models also suffered from the lack of good data. 
Since these early beginnings, there have been huge improvements in the data available to 
undertake such work and in the methods and tools used to analyse and ex ploit this information. 
These changes have addressed many of the critic isms made of the early pioneers, for example 
by now permitting (where the data allow) the modelling of interactions between supply and 
demand and allowing for substitution possibilities and other economic links. 
There is now a vast range of different tools and t echniques for anticipating changing skill 
needs4. The main general approaches include: 
i. Formal, national-level, quanti tative, model-ba sed projections; 
ii. Surveys of employers or other groups (these approaches may include some quantitative 
aspects but are genera lly more qualitative); 
iii. Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies  (involving both quantitative and qualitative 
methods), focusing on the situation in particular  areas (which may involve elements of both i 
and ii. 
iv. Foresight analysis using scenario deve lopment exercises base d on expert opinion 
(including setting up ‘observatories’, focus groups, round tables and other Delphi-style 
methods, to reach a consensus view) 
Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses (see Table 3.1). Ideally, a variety of different 
methods should be used, allowing them to inform  and support each other,  rather than seeing 
them as mutually exclusive or competing altern atives. No single approach has the monopoly on 
‘truth’ nor can a single method provide a full and complete picture: both qualitative and 
quantitative assessments are need ed. All such projections should be seen as part of an ongoing 
process rather than the final word. Together they can provide the various participants in the labour market, as well as policy makers, with useful insights into how labour markets are 
developing in response to vari ous external influences.  
Some critics focus on the accuracy of such projec tions, but this is to misunderstand the aim of 
much social science forecasting, which is to anticipate and avoid undesirable outcomes. Of 
course such work needs to be carried out in a robust fashion, but it is important to recognise 
that accurate and precise forecasts are not achieva ble. The key question to ask is not whether or 
not such projections are accurate, but whether or not they are useful.  
The revealed preferences of national government s and other organisations from all over the 
world, who support such activities with substantial funding, suggest that they are considered to 
                                                
 
4 Wilson, 2008a. 
 
EN 7   EN have considerable value. It is also important to recognise that such work has a wide variety of 
different audiences and users, including care er guidance, general labour market policy 
formation, and the planning of education and tr aining programmes. Few, if any, countries now 
regard such work as a source of information that  can be used to plan the scale and pattern of 
education and training provision with  any precision. Rather it is carried out in order to inform 
all those involved about how economic and other forces are shaping the labour markets, and the 
likely general implications for the future. 
It is also important to emphasise that the di fferent approaches may be suited to different 
audiences and purposes. Scenario development, for example, is ideal when the aim is to involve 
participants and to explore alternative possible futures. The actual proc ess of carrying out the 
scenario development is often a critical output, and participation is necessary to gain the full 
benefits. This is ideal for situations involving small numbers of policy makers trying to explore 
the threats and opportuniti es they are facing. In contrast, de tailed quantitative projections may 
be ideal where the prime aim is to provide useful labour market information and intelligence to support large numbers of individuals making choices
5.  
                                                 
5 For further details see Wilson (2008a). 
 
EN 8   EN Table 3.1: Comparison of the advantages a nd disadvantages of alternative approach es to anticipating skill requirements 
Alternative approaches A dvantages Disadvantages 
Formal, national-level, quantitative, 
model-based projections Comprehensive 
Consistent Transparent Quantitative Data hungry 
Costly Not everything can be quantified May give a misleading impression of 
precision 
In-depth sectoral or  occupational studies 
(using a variety of quantitative (model-
based) and qualitative methods) Strong on sectoral specifics Partial 
Can be inconsistent across sectors 
Surveys of employers or other groups, 
asking questions of fact and opinion about skills, skill deficiencies and skill gaps 
 Direct ‘user/customer’ involve ment Can be very subjective 
Inconsistent Can too easily focus on the margins (i.e. 
current vacancies) rather than skill needs within the whole workforce 
Focus groups, round tables 
Observatories Delphi-style methods Scenario development, Foresight  Holistic 
Less demanding data requirements Direct ‘user/customer’ involvement Non-systematic 
Can be inconsistent Can be subjective  
 
Source Wilson (2008a). 
 
EN 9   EN 2. A FIRST  ASSESSMENT  OF JOBS  AND  SKILLS  NEEDS  IN EUROPE  UP TO 
2020 
This section begins with an e xplanation of overall trends in job creation and labour supply, in 
order to estimate the risk of labour shortages. It then turns to the trends in skills needs, occupation structures and skills supply using both quantitative a nd qualitative studies. This part 
not only looks at the education attainment level,  but also at the concre te skills, knowledge and 
competences required, above the formal attainment (see box 2.1 for a clear definition of each concept). The second part examines the issue of skills gaps and the related risk of rising inequalities. Skills gaps refer to qualitativ e mismatches between the skills supplied by the 
workforce and the demand for skills on the part of employers. Such mismatches can affect 
market prices on the labour market (i.e. the wages of workers with different skills), 
productivity, economic growth and job creation. This section aims to disentangle these 
differing but interrelated issues.  
Box 2.1 Skills, qualification, compet ences and knowledge: definitions 
The education attainment levels are formalised  in the well-known ISCE D levels. These levels 
are mostly related to the length of schooling and the institutions that deliver the diploma. On 
the contrary, the European Qualification Framew ork will try to base the qualification process 
on the "learning outcomes", defined in terms of  knowledge, skills and competences. It provides 
a clear definition of all these related concepts:  
- “qualification” means a formal outcome of an assessment and validat ion process which is 
obtained when a competent body determines that an individual has achieved learning outcomes 
to given standards; 
- “learning outcomes” means statements of what a learner knows, understands and is able to do 
on completion of a learning process, which ar e defined in terms of knowledge, skills and 
competence; 
- “knowledge” means the outcome of the assi milation of information through learning. 
Knowledge is the body of f acts, principles, theories and practi ces that is relate d to a field of 
work or study. In the context of the Europ ean Qualifications Framework, knowledge is 
described as theoretic al and/or factual; 
- “skills” means the ability to  apply knowledge and use know-how to complete tasks and solve 
problems. In the context of the European Qua lifications Framework, skills are described as 
cognitive (involving the use of lo gical, intuitive and creative th inking) or practical (involving 
manual dexterity and the use of methods , materials, tools and instruments); 
- “competence” means the proven ability to use knowledge, skills and personal, social and/or 
methodological abilities, in work or study si tuations and in professional and personal 
development. In the context of the Europe an Qualifications Framework, competence is 
described in terms of re sponsibility and autonomy 
Source: Recommendation of the European Parliament and of the Council (April 2008) on the establishment of the 
European Qualifications Framework for lifelong learning 
 
EN 10   EN 2.1. Overall trends in job creation and labour supply 
2.1.1.  Sector trends: service activities still expanding 
While there are many studies and research projects that identif y trends in labour demand, these 
most often focus on specific sectors and/or a se lection of European countries. The CEDEFOP 
publication ‘Future Skill Needs in Europe - Focus on 2020’ ex amines Europe’s labour market 
as a whole (see box 2.2 for a detailed presentation of the data and methodology used). It argues 
that the general shift in Europe away from th e primary sector (especially agriculture) and 
traditional manufacturing industries towards se rvices and the knowledge-intensive economy is 
likely to continue. Although employment in many ne w EU Member States still relies to a great 
extent on agriculture  and manufacturing, there ar e clear signs that this is changing rapidly. By 
the year 2020, almost three quarters of jobs in the EU will be in services. 
Distribution, transport, hotels and catering together are projected  to see employment grow by 
more than 4.5 million over the next decade, while non-market services are expected to increase by slightly more (4.7 million). Business and misce llaneous services have the best prospects, 
with more than 13.6 million additional j obs being created between 2006 and 2020 in 
CEDEFOP’s baseline scenario. A more detail ed picture of job creation among the service 
sector is available, up to 2015 (see figure 2.1). St rong positive trends are expected in business 
services (such as IT, insurance or consultancy) ; health care and social work, distribution, 
personal services, hotels and catering, and to a lesser extent education.  
Figure 2.1 Past and future trends  in employment levels in th e service sector, in millions 
05101520253035
1996
1997
1998
19992000200120022003
2004
20052006200720082009
2010
20112012201320142015Million jobsDistribution
Other business serv ices
Health and social work
Public admin and defence
Education
Transport &
telecommunications
Miscellaneous services
Hotels and catering
Banking & insurance
Forecast
  
Source: Cedefop, 2008 
 
EN 11   EN All things considered, over 19.6 million additiona l jobs are expected to be created between 
2006 and 2020 in the EU-25 in the baseline scen ario considered by CEDEFOP. However, the 
actual number of jobs created will depend on the global economic environment. The current 
financial crisis and its impact on the real econo my make the pessimistic scenario produced by 
Cedefop more probable. The more pessimistic scenario projects th e generation of fewer jobs in 
the service sector, but still grow th. (see figure 2.2). In this scenario, the employment decline of 
manufacturing will be stronger. The present cris is may accelerate the foreseen restructuring in 
these sectors. However, even in the pessimistic  scenario, the manufact uring sector should still 
account for more than 33 million jobs in 2015: this sector would still correspond to an 
important part of jobs in some European regi ons. In addition, some regions would experience 
positive trends in manufacturing as a result of the transfer of jobs from older to newer Member States. Lastly, in some industries (for exam ple engineering), demand will outstrip productivity 
gains and create new jobs. The primary sector and utilities are expected to  decline significantly 
in all cases.  
Figure 2.2 Trends by broad sect ors according to different scen arios, change in 000s (2005-
2015) 
-2,3
-0,5
0,4
3,5
8,9
3,2
13,3-2,3
0,4
1,1
4,4
10,5
3,8
18,0-2,3
-1,2
-0,1
2,7
7,4
1,5
8,1-5 0 5 10 15 20
Primary sector & utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Distribution & transport
Business & other services
Non-marketed services
All industriesMillion jobs
Baseline scenario
Optimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
 
Source: Cedefop (2008).  
Box 2.2: Cedefop forecasts: methodology and data 
 
EN 12   EN The Cedefop forecast has adopted a modular approach to explori ng skill needs focusing on four 
key components (modules): 
The first key component is a multisectoral macroeconomic model, called E3ME (Energy- 
environment-economy model of Europe). Using th e classical Leontief input-output tables, it 
considers the links between economic sectors. In addition, it takes into ac count the interactions 
between the economy, energy supply and demand, and environment (E3), as well as the 
contribution of research and development, a nd associated technologi cal innovation, and the 
dynamics of growth. E3ME’s parameters are estimat ed empirically, using historical time series 
data covering the period 1970-2004. This means th at behavioural relations hips in the forecast 
are determined by past trends. There may be cases wh ere this is not appropriate, in particular in 
new Member States where data series are s horter (1993-2004) and cover a period of transition. 
To compensate partially for this E3ME assume s that in the long term  there is convergence 
between the EU’s new members and the prev ious EU-15 in terms of the key economic 
relationships and parameters embedded in the model. It al so uses Eurostat population 
projections as an input. Ba sed on Eurostat National Account s (NA) estimates, this model 
provides consistent projections of employment le vels by sector/industry. Of course, in addition 
to providing projections of sector al employment, such models can be used for a wide variety of 
other purposes, including more general macroeconomic policy analysis. E3ME has been set up 
to explore alternative sc enarios. This includes broad assessment of the sensitivity of outcomes 
to some key external drivers (such as the global economic demand). A baseline forecast, 
constructed from a set of accepted European Commission economic projections was developed 
as a benchmark for two alternative scenarios, on e with a positive and one with a more negative 
outlook. 
The second key component is a module which tran slates the employment projections from the 
multisectoral model into implications for the expansion demand for occupations. The third 
module, very similar to the second one, focu ses on the implications for formal education 
attainments.  
A key issue is the best data to be used to measure employment st ructure in Europe. Historically, 
most countries have invested considerable resources in deve loping data for their National 
Accounts (NA). In many respects estimates of empl oyment on this basis ar e to be preferred as 
they are consistent with other key economic i ndicators such as output and productivity. More 
recently, greater emphasis has been placed on estim ates of employment based on the European 
Labour Force Survey (LFS). These have the adva ntage of being broadly consistent across 
countries and providing a meas ure of employment structure by occupation and qualification 
that is not available from the NA based esti mates. Therefore the data from the Labour Force 
Survey (LFS) are used to generate the o ccupational and qualifica tion estimates, but are 
constrained to match National Accounts base d employment totals. The occupational and 
qualifications shares within sectors theref ore reflect the patterns in the LFS data. 
Ideally, the second and third module should relate occupational and qualific ations structure to 
technology and work organisation, pr ice (wage) and other economic factors. In practice, time is 
the main independent variable acting as a proxy for technological change  and other factors. 
The fourth module estimates the ‘replacement demand’. On the demand side of the labour 
market it is important to make the distinction be tween demand that results from future changes 
in employment levels – expansion demand – an d the so-called replacement demand, influenced 
 
EN 13   EN by retirement, mortality, inter-occupational, ge ographical mobility and migration. Obtaining 
robust estimates of migration flows is not stra ightforward, since available data are rarely 
adequate, but this module tries to estimate th e impact of all types of mobility, including 
migration. 
In combination, the four modules deliver a compre hensive, consistent, detailed picture of future 
skill needs and job openings across Europe. The latter are defined as the sum of expansion and 
replacement demand. 
 
Source: Cedefop (2008).  
2.1.2.  The size of the workforce: current trends and anticipated developments 
Different factors can influence the size of the workforce: demographic factors, participation 
rates, health issues, migration flows. In 2007 the activ e population in the EU , i.e. the total of 
those in employment and unemployment, was around 235 million on average6 According to the 
latest population projections by Eurostat7, by 2060 the working age population of the EU is 
projected to fall by almost 50 million even with c ontinued net immigration similar to historical 
levels and by around 110 million without such immigration. Immigr ation in itself will not solve 
the demographic deficit, but it can cushion th e impact of the demograp hic trends. Relying on 
immigration to replenish the popul ation in Europe is a high-risk  strategy as immigration is 
projected to decline by 20208. On its own, immigration is insufficient to compensate for the 
decline in birth rates throughout Europe. On the other hand, the potential contribution of 
immigration to EU economic performance is – and will most likely continue to be – significant. As recognised by the spring 2008 European Council and by the European Pact on Immigration 
                                                
 
6 Eurostat, population and social conditions statistics. 
7 Eurostat population projections EUROPOP2008, 2008-based convergence scenario, convergence year 
2150. 
8 GHK (2008), ‘Long-term social trends in Europe’. 
 
EN 14   EN and Asylum of October 2008, well managed econom ic immigration is one of the policies 
needed to help meeting the needs of the labour market and reducing present and future skills 
shortages.  
These demographic trends are expected to ha ve a major impact on the supply of labour in 
Europe. Overall participation rates (for the 15 -64 age group) in the EU-25 are expected to 
increase over the coming decades and the overall employment rate is projected to rise from 65,5% in 2007 to 69% in 2020 (see Figure 2.3). The pr ojected increase is mainly due to higher 
female employment rates, which will rise from 58,4% in 2007 to almost 63,4% by 2020. Even 
steeper is the projected increase in the employme nt rate of older workers, from 45% in 2007 to 
54,5% in 2020. In many countries, the youth empl oyment rate has been falling until 2004/2005. 
This trend is explained by th e higher proportion of persons comp leting secondary education and 
higher enrolment in tertiary education. Howe ver, in 2006 and 2007, the youth employment rate 
has increased in a majority of countries and is expected to reach 40% in 2020.  
Figure 2.3 Projected employment rates in the EU-27 
01020304050607080
2003 2007 2010
(p)2015
(p)2020
(p)2003 2007 2010
(p)2015
(p)2020
(p)2003 2007 2010
(p)2015
(p)2020
(p)
Total Female Older workers 
Source: European Commission and Economic Policy Committee (2008) 
The total number of persons employed (15-64 year s old) is projected to increase significantly 
up to 2019, but after 2019 the demographic effect s of an ageing population will outweigh this 
effect. Three distinct periods can be identified9. Between 2004 and 2012, both demographic and 
employment developments will support a growing labour suppl y. Between 2013 and 2019, 
rising employment rates will offset the stagna tion and decline in the working-age population: 
during this period, the working-age populati on will start to decline as the baby-boom 
generation enters retirement. The ageing effect will dominate as from 2020, and the number of 
persons employed will fall (see Figure 2.4). 
                                                 
9 European Commission and the Economic Policy Committee (2008), 'The 2009 Ageing Report: 
Underlying assumptions  and projection methodologies for the EU-27 Member States (2007-2060)', 
European Economy, No. 9/2008. 
 
EN 15   EN Figure 2.4 Projected working-age popul ation and total employment, EU27 
180200220240260280300320340
20032004200520062007 20082009 201020112012201320142015
20162017
2018 20192020 202120222023 20242025(millions)
58,060,062,064,066,068,070,0
Working-age population
Total employment
Employment rate (right scale)Rising employment and 
slow growth in working-
age population
rising employment 
despite the 
decline in working-
agestagnation and 
decline of 
employment
 
Source: European Commission and Economic Policy Committee (2008) 
The challenges of anticipatin g labour supply in Europe 
Overall population projections and estimates of future labour s upply provide robust trend data 
that can be compared with es timates of labour demand and the need for new skills. However, 
there are nevertheless some  important challenges: 
- Uncertainties over life expectancy 
Life expectancy projections are subject to uncer tainty. Past projections from official sources 
have often underestimated th e gains in life expectancy. 
- Labour supply is sensi tive to labour demand .  
Employment rates, particularly female em ployment rates and rates among older and younger 
workers, markedly affect labour  supply and associated activity  rates. Employment rates are 
themselves sensitive to labour demand, the wage  rates for different skill groups, and conditions 
affecting decisions to retire or otherwise become inactive. 
- Estimating third-country immigration to the EU.   
Compared to fertility and mortality, immigrati on flows are harder to predict and are more 
volatile and subject to changes in political and inst itutional factors. The data on immigration 
flows are sketchy and it is extrem ely difficult to project migration flows. The static snapshot of 
net immigration inflows on which the projections are based fails to capture the complexity of 
the situation, not least because gross flows (both inwards and outw ards) are neglected. 
Moreover, immigration has a dynamic impact on the population of the host country, and 
account needs to be taken of fact ors such as the extent to whic h migrants return to their home 
 
EN 16   EN country, family reunification, a nd whether the fertility and mortality patterns of migrants’ 
offspring and subsequent generations converge to those of the host country. Migration flows 
are also uncertain due to the influence of a va riety of push and pull factors in both host and 
home countries. Natural disasters, war and politi cal instability play a role, but these are too 
uncertain to project. Relative income dispar ities and public policy to wards migrants are the 
major determining factors of migration over th e long run. Finally, approaches to modelling 
migration flows vary widely across official agencies throughout the EU, notwithstanding the 
progresses in the common EU immigration policy. 
- Estimating intra-EU migration .  
There has been a long tradition of intra-EU eco nomic migration although the absolute numbers 
of workers involved have been lo w relative to the size of nati onal labour markets. Enlargement 
has significantly affected these trends. The singl e market and efforts to encourage mobility may 
increase mobility and hence affect labour suppl y. However, anticipating the potential scale of 
such changes is problematic. 
- Estimating intra-Member State migration flows.  
Labour markets are to a large exte nt local and regional rather than  national, and there have been 
and continue to be marked inter-regional and rural/urban (and urban/rural) migration 
movements within European countries. Data on such trends are poor. However, such trends 
have important consequences for effective le vels of labour supply. Employers, dependent upon 
the local and regional labour supply, have a st rong interest in anticipating such trends. 
- Estimating the characteri stics of labour supply.  
While the characteristics of age, educational level, gender, and to a lesser extent origin of 
labour supply are relatively easy to forecast, some of the characteristics associated with likely 
success in the labour market are more difficult to  identify, as formal occupational qualifications 
and experience become less relevant than generi c competences that are more important for an 
individual’s competitiveness in the labour market , and as career paths become more complex.  
2.1.3.  Quantitative imbalances in  labour demand and supply 
Imbalances in labour supply and demand are expect ed if the employment ra te does not increase 
in the future. The CEDEFOP report Focus on 2020  anticipates that 19.6 million new jobs will 
be created by 2020 and 80 million jobs will become  available as workers retire or leave the 
labour market for other reasons. The Eurostat ba seline scenario estimates that the working-age 
population (15-64 years) for the EU-25 will de cline from 308.6 million in 2006 to 302.5 million 
in 2020. These figures imply that Europe will need an employme nt rate of almost 74% to 
satisfy labour market demand10. It has to be said that this is  still a very preliminary estimation, 
as CEDEFOP will carry out its own forecasting of labour supply to allow better comparability 
between demand and supply forecasts. Furthe rmore, upgrading skills can increase the 
productivity of workers, and thus lim it labour demand (in quantitative terms).  
                                                 
10 The forecasts of supply and demand used here are based on the same data, namely LFS. However, 
Cedefop will produce its own forecast of  the supply side, to ensure a be tter comparability and to focus on 
the skills and education matters, so that imbalances  can be analysis for each education attainment.  
 
EN 17   EN Imbalances already exist in European labour markets, which face high unemployment levels 
but at the same time a non-negligible number of unfilled jobs. The so-called ‘Beveridge curve’ can indicate the state of curren t balances and thus the quality of matching. It represents the 
relation between the unemployment rate (on the X axis) and the job vacancy rate (on the Y 
axis), which is defined as the proportion of unfilled jobs in the labour  force (see Figure 2.4). 
The curve usually slopes downwards, as higher unemployment rates normally go in hand with 
lower job vacancies. It normally shows different values across time, but data on job vacancies 
at European level have been gathered only very recently. Figure 2.9 presents data across countries in 2007. In countries where unemployment and job vacancies are low (LU, SI, SE, LT), the matching process seems very good. In contrast, the matching process is not satisfactory when both rates are high (e.g. DE).  
Figure 2.4: Job vacancy and unemployment rates in European countries 
Job vacancy rate and unemployment rate in different countries
00,511,522,533,544,55
02468 1 0 1 2
Unemployment rateJob vacancy rate
LUSILT
SE
BG
ESGR
SKPL
HUBEFIDE
LV
MTROUKCZEECY
Bad matching
Good matching
 
Source: Eurostat, 2007 data 
A high job vacancy rate could reflect a shortage of some kinds of skills, in particular higher 
skills. Shortages of technical skills have also been reporte d by micro and small enterprises11. 
These shortages hamper the competiveness of these enterprises. It could al so be the result of 
bad working conditions in some sectors. For ex ample, the job vacancy rate is higher in the 
hotels and restaurants se ctor, which does not offer enough g ood jobs (6.6% in BE, 6.4% in CY, 
4.9% in DE, 3.9% in ES, 3.1% in FI, 2.9% in UK and CZ, 2.8% in PL). More qualitative 
studies of the commerce and tourism sectors also show that employers in these sectors will face shortages unless they improve the working and wage conditions of workers who have acquired 
                                                
 
11  Communication from the Commission on the European Competitiveness Report 2008 
COM(2008) 774 final - 28.11.2008 
 
EN 18   EN general skills (communication, foreign la nguage) also valuable in other sectors12. Thirdly, 
tensions on the local labour markets and lack of  mobility can cause higher job vacancy rates in 
some regions13. Lastly, it has to be said that the current data on job vacancies and 
unemployment are contingent on the economic cy cle. The 2007 data ma y be driven by short-
term imbalances, resulting from market rigid ities or slow adjustment processes, but not 
affecting the labour market in the long term. Theref ore, the current da ta may over-estimate 
imbalances, and long-term structural im balances are probably less pronounced. 
The same caveat also applies to the unemploym ent and employment rates. According to an 
updated forecast, the current financial cris is will weaken employment development, 
notwithstanding the structural re forms. Unemployment rate is expected to increase in 2009: 
8.4% compared to 7.5% in 200714. However, looking beyond short-term imbalances, a 
permanent feature of the labour market seems to  be the lower unemploym ent rate and higher 
employment rate among the high-skilled (see  Figure 2.6). As a consequence, educational 
upgrading seems to be the most relevant solution  to current and anticipated imbalances on the 
labour market.  
Figure 2.6: employment rate and educational attainment for 15-64 year-olds (2007) 
0102030405060708090100
EU27BE BG CZ DK DE EE IEEL ESFRITCY LV LTLU HU MT NL AT PLPT RO SISKFISE UK HR TR NOPercentage
Below upper secondary education Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education
 
Source: European Commission, 2008a 
                                                 
12 CEDEFOP (2005), ‘Trends and skills needs in Touris m’; Eurofound, European Monitoring Centre on 
Change (2007), ‘Trends and drivers of change in  the European commerce sector: Four scenarios’. 
13 DARES (2002) and Conseil d’analyse stratégique (2007). 
14 European Commission (2008), "Eco nomic Forecast. Autumn  2008", European Ec onomy, No. 7/2008.  
 
EN 19   EN 2.2. Evolving skills demand and suppl y: risks and opportunities 
2.2.1.  Higher skills requirements: th e result of various factors 
Several factors have influenced the trends and shifts in skills demand. Th e main factors driving 
these trends are: technological change; or ganisational change; and globalisation and 
international trade. Climate change and environm ental challenges will also have a major impact 
across the economy. The changing characteristics and upgrading of the workforce may also 
reinforce the trends. The pace of  change may also be influenced  by institutional factors in the 
labour market. The relative importance of these f actors is the subject of research and debate. 
Each factor is considered in turn below. 
Technological change 
Technological change influences the demand for sk ills and workers with different levels of 
education. The so-called Skill-B iased Technological Change (SBTC) thesis is a common 
approach to explaining the shift in labour dema nd towards high-skilled workers in Europe. The 
basic idea is that new technologies that improve  the effectiveness of the production process, for 
example information and communication technology (ICT), are ‘skill-biased’15 and that 
technological change increases the demand for higher-educated workers. At the same time, 
less-educated workers become relatively less pro ductive, and are less in demand, which reduces 
their wages or increases thei r likelihood of unemployment. 
There is considerable evidence16 that adopting ICT reduces th e labour input for routine 
cognitive and manual tasks and increases the input for non-rou tine tasks that require higher 
skills. Studies (mostly for the US and the UK) have  tried to relate shifts in skill structure in 
several industries to indicators such as computer use, R&D in tensity or innovation counts. The 
findings tend to support the SBTC thesis by showing that demand sh ifts are stronger in 
industries making intensive use of ICT. Apar t from ICT, biotechnology  and nanotechnology are 
identified as likely to have a major impact on the economy and the labour market over the next 
decade17.  
Organisational change 
Technological change also influences the orga nisation of work, which affects the demand for 
different levels of skills. IC T has contributed to the shift from the so-called ‘Taylorist 
organisation of labour’, charact erised by mass production and burea ucratic controls, to more 
flexible forms of work18. Work organisation is now characterised by decentralised decision-
taking, just-in-time operation, job rotation, teamwork and multitasking. The OECD has 
paraphrased this as ‘high- performance work practices’, emphasising that these new 
requirements lead to  higher skill needs19. This process is termed Skills Biased Organisational 
Change (SBOC). 
                                                 
15 Machin and van Reenen, 2007. 
16 Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003. 
17 IPTS (2008). 
18 Caroli and van Reenen, 2001. 
19 OECD Employment Outlook 1999. 
 
EN 20   EN US data on the internal struct ure of firms that have adopted ICT show that the increase in 
demand for high-skilled workers can be attributed more to the requirements of new work 
organisation than to the introduc tion of the new technology itself20. The organisational changes 
possible through ICT may change labour demand in  several ways. Firms that adopt ICT need 
workers that can get along in self-managed teams and can complete a whole process that earlier 
was fragmented because of the lack of centra lised databases. Moreover, non-cognitive skills 
such as dealing with suppliers  and customers or influencing team-mates and colleagues have 
become more important. 
The finding that skill changes are strongly driv en by new ways of organising work is 
corroborated by European data21. Data for France and Britain22 show that organisational 
changes such as de-layering, job rotation and shorter command chains pr ompt an increase in 
relative labour demand in favour of the skilled. Higher-skilled wo rkers more easily cope with 
these challenges as they are able to communicate or can be trained for multitasking at a lower cost than unskilled or low-skilled workers. The studies indicate that  organisational changes 
have come at the expense of the employment of clerks and have mainly favoured executives.  
Endogenous skill-biased technological change 
Technological development has not always led to  an increase in the demand for high-skilled 
labour. To some extent, labour demand is a reflection of labour supply. Work needs to be 
organised in manner that best takes advantage of and complements the skills and education of the available workforce. A well-educated and hi ghly skilled workforce will have the effect of 
encouraging and enabling the adoption of technol ogies and modification of work organisation 
that can increase productivity, which will in tu rn reinforce the demand for high skills in 
successful companies and industrie s. Upgrading the edu cation of the workforce may thus itself 
be a factor leading to increased  demand for high skills. A large supply of skilled workers with 
relatively low wages could lead firms to introduce a technology their workforce can cope with. 
So, technology needs to be  seen as a flexible parameter that  firms can use to maximise their 
profits
23. 
Research into technological change driven by sk ills supply is not widely available. A recent 
study in the United States compared PC adoption in  different cities, finding that cities initially 
endowed with abundant and cheap skilled la bour more aggressively adopted the new 
technology24. Also, US evidence suggests that it is r easonable to assume that innovations are at 
least partly the result of the available workforce25. 
Across the developed world, empirical evidence shows a correlation between the available 
skills and the type of technological change. A la rge supply of general and transferable skills 
provides companies with a better capacity for ra dical innovation, while e ducation and training 
systems offering sector-specific courses a nd curricula favour in cremental innovation26. It is 
                                                 
20 Breshanan et al., 2002. 
21 Hujer, 2003; Greenan, 2003. 
22 Caroli and van Reenen, 2001. 
23 Acemoglu, 2002. 
24 Beaudry et al., 2006. 
25 Acemoglu, Daron, 2002. 
26 Hall and Soskice, 2001. 
 
EN 21   EN argued that the US systems focusing on a more ‘general’ education do better in meeting the 
requirements of technological and organisational change. Eu rope, which has traditionally 
concentrated on ‘vocational’ sy stems, has seen less economic gr owth from rapid technological 
and organisational change27. 
Globalisation and international trade 
The evolution of international trade and globalisation are other factors leading to increased 
demand for high-skilled workers in Europe and reduced demand for unskilled labour in 
developed countries. In recent years, trade betw een the industrialised countries and developing 
countries has risen. Emerging countries like Brazil,  Russia, India and China (BRIC) now play a 
major role in the world economy. Within the next  40-50 years, the GDPs of the BRIC countries 
are expected to exceed those of the largest EU  countries, the United States and Japan (OECD 
2007). 
Developing and emerging countries have a la rger unskilled labour s upply than developed 
countries. Trade liberalisation enables this supp ly to be utilised. The developed world is 
experiencing a relative decline in the dema nd for unskilled labour as it imports cheaper low-
skill-intensive goods from th e developing countries28 and concentrates on the production of 
high-skill-intensive goods. 
However, trade and globalisation only partially explain the relative demand shift towards high-
skilled labour in Europe for several reasons.  Firstly, trade flows w ith low-wage developing 
countries are not large enough to  explain the shift in labour  demand within the developed 
countries29. Secondly, the industries that have experi enced the biggest incr ease in trade with 
developing and emerging countries  are not those that have seen  the largest shifts in labour 
market demand towards high-skilled workers30. Skill upgrading is also found in non-trading 
sectors31 like the retail trade, suggesting that glob alisation and trade cannot by any means fully 
explain these trends. Finally, work specialisa tion among developed and de veloping countries is 
evolving very quickly. Skill upgrading is also taking place in developing and emerging countries
32, and these countries are now competen t and competitive in knowledge-intensive 
sectors. The import of low-skill intensive goods ha s remained rather stable whereas the import 
of medium/high–skill intensive goods from lo w/medium income countr ies has substantially 
increased over the last 10 years33. In addition, international trade in services should be also 
taken into account: acco rding to statistics34 on off-shoring, most of  the jobs effectively 
transferred abroad from EU Member States are in manufacturing or prod uction - 51.5% -, but a 
significant proportion is in other ar eas of activity such as services. The incr easing international 
trade in services is likely to develop over th e next 10 years and to influence the EU labour 
market and skills requirements 
                                                 
27 Krueger and Kumar, 2004. 
28 Cahuc and Zylberberg, 2004. 
29 Machin, 2004. 
30 Machin and van Reenen, 2004. 
31 Desjonqueres et al., 1999. 
32 Berman and Machin, 2000. 
33 Landesmann et al. (2007) 
34 European Restructuring Monitor Database (ERM); see in particular the ERM report 2007 "Restructuring 
and employment in the EU: the impact of globalisation". 
 
EN 22   EN Labour market institutions 
Labour market institutions are of ten cited as an explanatory fact or for the relative shifts in 
labour demand. Indeed, there is an interesting a ssociation between labour market institutions 
and new forms of work organisation: countries  with relatively restrictive labour market 
institutions and collective regulation (for example Germa ny but also the Scandinavian 
countries) are predominantly characterised by wo rk forms that require high skills such as 
problem solving and, especially, worker autonomy35. In countries with more flexible labour 
markets (for example the UK and Ireland), howev er, work organisation ta kes greater advantage 
of the relative cheapness of less skilled labour. Other things being equal,  the reduced wages for 
the low-skilled should ra ise the demand for them36. This explanation is mostly cited with 
respect to the US and UK labour markets, as they have seen a reduction in the role of labour 
market institutions. In particular, minimu m wages fell in the US during the 1980s and 
unionisation declined sharply in both countri es. However, there is still debate among 
researchers as to how the evolut ion of labour market institutions has accounted for the shifts in 
labour and skills demand and wages37. 
Climate change and environmental challenges 
Lastly, efforts to mitigate and tackle climate change and environmental degradation (pollution 
of water, land and air) can create a new ‘green  economy’, with millions of new jobs across the 
world38. The market for environmental products and services  is projected to double. The shift to 
a low-carbon economy could benefit Europe, whic h already has a leading position in some of 
the technology required for re newable energy, for example39. Environmental concerns not only 
prompt the growth of new green  sectors, however. They also require the development of new 
competences in more traditional sectors (agriculture, transport, buildings). Consequently, increasing environmental concer ns can have an impact on a ll sectors of the economy and 
require not only the development of educa tion and training programmes for emerging new 
professions, but also new skills to be taught as part of changing job profiles within existing 
professions
40. 
Summary: factors affecting shifts in demand fo r skills and challenges for anticipating future 
requirements 
The increased demand for high skills and educated  workers is a consequence of the following 
factors: the application of tec hnology, especially ICT; changes in work organisation that are 
themselves in part made possible by tec hnological change; globalisation and increased 
international trade; and the upgr ading of the workforce in Eur ope, which itself influences how 
technology is used and work or ganised. The parallel in crease in wage differe ntials between the 
highly skilled and low-skilled may have been affected by labour market  institutions. Lastly, 
                                                 
35 Lorenz and Valeyre, 2004. 
36 Machin, 2004. 
37 EENEE, 2008. 
38 UNEP, 2008. 
39 Eurofound, 2008c, ‘Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios’, 
European Foundation for the Improvement of Livi ng and Working Conditions, European Monitoring 
Centre on Change. 
40 Nicaise, 2008. 
 
EN 23   EN climate change and environmental concerns are a new factor that may have a significant impact 
on our economies and labour markets.  
Because the factors affecting skills demand are closely interrelated, and because the evidence 
available to measure their influences on each other and labour market demand as a whole is 
poor, it is difficult to assign we ights to their relative impor tance. Improvements in data 
allowing for a better longitudinal and cross-secti onal analysis of trends would yield insights 
that could in turn improve the reliability  of forecasts and anticipatory measures. 
Furthermore, there is a need to  carefully assess the extent to which the relative influence of 
these factors in the past is a good guide to th eir future influence on the demand for skills. For 
example, the next generation of technological ch ange could have different impacts compared 
with the advent of computerisat ion; the effects of globalisation and international trade could 
change as the BRIC countries themselves beco me developed; the continuing upgrading of the 
educational levels of the workfo rce could be associated with pr essures for further but different 
changes in work organisation; and labour market institutions could have  different influences, 
with for example more emphasis on creati ng good working conditions and opportunities for 
work–life balance, encouraging lifelong learning and prolonging working lif e than on monetary 
rewards. 
Finally, aggregate labour demand could be affect ed by different developments, so there is a 
need to consider alternative scenarios in orde r to distinguish between the changes that are 
robust and those that may be affected by wider socio-economic developments. Furthermore, 
quantitative projections should be  complemented by a more qualitative analysis of skills needs 
by sector, under different scenarios.  
A need for higher education attainment levels 
As a result of technological ch ange, globalisation and new fo rms of work organisation, 
education requirements are increasing in all oc cupational categories — including those at the 
lowest rung of the occupati on ladder. Following this trend, the quantitative projections 
published by Cedefop point to an  increase of almost 18.7 million jobs at the highest education 
level (ISCED levels 5 and 6) and almost 13.3 mill ion jobs at medium level (ISCED levels 3 and 
4) (see box 2.2 above for details on methodology a nd data used). This would be offset by a 
sharp decline of almost 12.5 million jobs for t hose with no or low formal diploma(ISCED 
levels 0 to 2)41. As a consequence, higher education le vel will be required overall from the 
working population (see Figure 2.7). 
                                                 
41 CEDEFOP (2008), EU-25 data. 
 
EN 24   EN Figure 2.7: Past and anticipated employmen t shares by education attainment level 
0%20%40%60%80%100%
1996 2001 2006 2015 2020High
Medium
Low
 
Source: CEDEFOP (2008), EU25 
While there is no simple one -to-one relationship between  occupations and formal 
qualifications, it is possible to explore how this is changing over time (see figure 2.8). The general increase in qualification levels across most jobs — includi ng those at the lowest rung of 
the occupation ladder — can be the result of two phenomena. Firstly, underutilisation of skills may partly explain the shift to higher skills in jobs at the lo wer rungs. Secondly, the nature and 
skill requirements of jobs at these lower rungs are changing. They are more and more 
demanding
42 and require competences to deal with non-routine tasks.  
                                                 
42 Green, 2006. 
 
EN 25   EN Figure 2.8: Education require ments across occupations 
0102030405060708090100
2006 2020 2006 2020 2006 2020 2006 2020High-skilled non-
manual occupationsSkilled non-manual
occupationsSkilled manual
occupationsElementary
occupationsMillion jobsLow level of educational attainment Medium level of educational attainment
High level of educational attainment
 
Source: Cedefop (2008) 
Above the formal education attainment, it is possible to explore the evolution of skills, 
competences, knowledge and qualification (see box 2.1 for a clear definition of these differing 
but related concepts).  
The crucial skills needed in sectors: qualitative analyses 
As stated above, technological change and in partic ular ICT explain the shift towards higher 
skills43. Typical analytical and inte ractive tasks associated with  ICT are hypothesis testing and 
formal and legal writing, but also tasks requir ing ‘soft skills’ like persuading, selling or 
managing others. Demand for problem-solving a nd communication skills has increased, and 
these capacities are mainly f ound in the high-skilled workfor ce. Across Europe, the proportion 
of workers undertaking non-routine tasks is already very high (s ee Figure 2.9 below). 
                                                 
43 Autor et al., 2003. 
 
EN 26   EN Figure 2.9: Proportion of workers undertaking non-routine tasks 
Proportion of workers (%). ..
80,8
69,166,9
59,4
42,9
0102030405060708090
Solving unforeseen
problemsLearning new things at
workAble to choose or change
methods of workUndertaking complex tasks Doing monotonous tasks at
work 
Source: European Survey on Working Conditions, 2005, EU-27 
Note: workers can have several char acteristics (figures not cumulative) 
Further exploration of skills shifts in specific sectors and occupations using qualitative methods 
can provide a deeper understand ing of the crucial skills requi red for labour market success. 
Several sectoral studies have been undertaken at Eu ropean level. Stud ies by the CEDEFOP 
Skillsnet are already available fo r two specific sectors in Eur ope: tourism and nanotechnology. 
The project ‘Work Organisation and Restructur ing in the Knowledge Society’ (WORKS), 
funded by the Socio-economic Sciences a nd Humanities programme under the Sixth 
Framework Programme of the European Union, has also studied how restru cturing is changing 
occupations in the public sector and in the clothing, food, and IT sectors44. The European 
Foundation for the Improvement of  Living and Working Conditions and its European Centre 
for Monitoring of Change (EMCC) have also st udied trends in demand in specific sectors: 
biomedical healthcare, commerce, energy, textile s and clothing, transpor t and logistics, and 
childcare services. The European Community  Programme for Employment and Social 
Solidarity (PROGRESS) also suppo rts a comprehensive analysis of  the evolution of jobs and 
skills in 16 sectors (including the automotive in dustry, textiles and clothing, and chemicals45).  
A general trend towards demand for a broader portfolio of skills is perceptible across sectors. 
For example, the WORKS project confirms that designers or ICT researchers have to develop 
skills in marketing or management, software pr ofessionals have to de velop skills in public 
relations, and logistics manage rs are developing a new profe ssional work profile. This 
extension of skills beyond traditional occupa tional boundaries is very often left to the 
individual responsibility of the worker, th rough self-training or on-the-job training.  
In knowledge-intensive and growing sector s such as nanotechnology and biomedical 
healthcare, there will be even greater demand for scie ntists skilled in more than just one area of 
research. The shortage of European  scientists may hamper growth in these sectors and result in 
                                                 
44 All the outputs and conclusions of the proj ect are available at: www.worksproject.be 
45 See a detailed presentation of the methodology in section 2.2. 
 
EN 27   EN the relocation of knowledge -intensive activities46. The studies in this area47 point to the urgent 
need to further develop scientific educa tion and training with a particular stress on 
interdisciplinarity. As the number of companie s that develop and manu facture nanotechnology 
and biotechnology products in cooperation with research institutes is growing, the demand for 
personnel qualified in both R&D and business is in creasing. Managerial sk ills are also needed 
in addition to scientific knowledge. 
In more traditional sectors such as the automo tive sector, the commerce sector or the tourism 
sector, existing jobs will tend to change in term s of the skills and competences required. In the 
automotive sector48, for example, emerging technologies  and changing demand (greater 
diversity, urbanisation, pressure fr om energy prices, etc.) will in crease the demand for skills in 
design, marketing, and research. The tourism49 study has found that in order to face increasing 
competition in world tourism and keep its position as a favoured destination, it is crucial for 
Europe to respond to general trends, such as customised holidays or language and educational holidays. These require customer handling/servi ce, a knowledge of foreign languages, skills to 
identify opportunities for cross-promotion and cross-selling, and communication and marketing 
skills. In sectors said to be declining, such as textiles, there will still be  a great need for ‘hard’ 
scientists in order to develop and use new tec hnologies that are more environmentally friendly 
and that will enable the industry to offer pr oducts tailored to the i ndividual wishes of 
customers
50.  
Across sectors, transversal and generic skills such as problem-solving and analytical skills, self-
management and communication sk ills, linguistic skills, digital competences are more and 
more valued on the labour market51. Furthermore, the key competen ce of learning -to-learn, the 
skill for recognizing one's learning needs and findi ng opportunities for learning, is essential for 
everyone, in a changing economy where some jobs  will disappear while others will appear.  . 
From the REFLEX survey, there is evidence that graduates are expected to be more or less 
competent in at least the following five areas: professional expertise,  functional flexibility, 
innovation and knowledge management, mobilisati on of human resources, and international 
orientation. International mobility during studies  is an added value for graduates and has a 
significant impact on labour market success52. There is still a need to acquire professional 
expertise, but training in a spec ific field of knowledge also provi des a basis for building other, 
more general skills, such as communication or problem solving. It is a context in which more 
generic skills can be developed53. Surveys for the Tuning Educatio nal Structures in Europe 
project also offer insight into perceptions of  the competences needed by tertiary education 
                                                 
46 Eurofound, European Monitoring Centre on Change (2008), ‘The future of the European biomedical 
healthcare sector: Four scenarios’. 
47 See in particular CEDEFOP studies on the nanotechnology sector. 
48 ‘Comprehensive Analysis of the Evolution of the European Automotive industry’, Alphametrics, report 
produced for the European Commission, Lot 1 of Co mprehensive Analysis of Emerging Competences 
and Economic Activities in the European Union. 
49 CEDEFOP (2005), ‘Trends and skills needs in Tourism’. 
50 ‘Skills scenarios for the textiles, wearing and leathe r products sector in the European Union’, report 
produced for the European Commission, Lot 2 of Co mprehensive Analysis of Emerging Competences 
and Economic Activities in the European Union. 
51 Dickerson and Green, 2004; Kriechel and Pfann, 2005. 
52 ‘Learning Mobility, an Opportunity for all’; report of the High-level Expert Forum on Mobility; 
Evaluations of Erasmus studies. 
53 Cf. conclusions of the REFLEX project, Allen and van der Velden (2007). 
 
EN 28   EN graduates, including to what exte nt and in which areas the percep tions of students, graduates, 
academics and employers coincide or diverge. They all agree that the ability to apply knowledge in practical situations is very important, as are the abilities to identify, pose and 
resolve problems and to communicate both oral ly and in the written word. In contrast, 
employers rate the ability to work in a team as very important, whereas academics and students do not pay too much attention to teamwork ability.  
2.2.2.  Rising inequalities as a consequence of shifts in skills demand?  
Occupation trends: a polarisation of jobs?  
Sectoral changes will have significant implicati ons for the occupational skills needed in the 
future. These will be reinforced by changes in how work is organised and how jobs are 
performed within sectors. Currently, almost 40 % of people are employed in higher-level jobs 
such as management, professional work, or technical jobs. An in crease is projected in these 
higher-level jobs, but also for some jobs in ‘e lementary’ occupations. In contrast, there would 
be fewer jobs for skilled agricultural workers, clerks and craft workers. Changing sector and 
occupational structures may lead  to some job polarisation (i.e . job growth at the higher and 
lower levels with demand for jobs in the me dium-level occupations falling somewhat).  
New technologies often cannot replace ‘non-routine’ work t ypically done by low-skilled 
workers. ‘Non-routine’ tasks al so cover things like truck driving or bib liography searches, 
services typically delivered by the low-skil led. ‘Routine tasks’ involving repetitive and 
predictable work, however, have usually been replaced by au tomation and computerisation. 
These tasks include calculation work or repetitive costumer services  that have in the past been 
undertaken by middle-skilled workers. New technol ogies (especially ICT) not only increase the 
productivity of high-skilled workers but also e liminate work traditionally done by intermediate-
level occupations. Therefore, technological chan ge (especially ICT) a nd organisational change 
can partly explain the job polarisation phenomenon. 
European evidence tends to confirm the increas ing demand for non-routine tasks at the lower 
and higher rungs of the jobs ladder. In the UK for example
54, there has been a growth in high- 
and low-wage jobs where it ha s been difficult to replace human capital by machines or 
computers over the last few decades. Non-routin e manual tasks done by hairdressers or kitchen 
porters are as much in demand as non-routine cognitive and interactive tasks performed by care assistants or software engineers. Routine-task  jobs, normally found in the middle of the wage 
distribution, have however decreased. Data from Germany also show that since the end of the 
1970s occupations requiring routine manual or cl erical skills have de clined considerably 
whereas jobs needing interactive and non-routine skills have experienced the highest growth 
rates
55. The French report on occupations in 2015 by the "Centre d’analyse stratégique" 
emphasises that job polarisation is strongly associat ed with the expansion of  the service sectors. 
This means that job increases, for both the low-  and high-skilled, are mainly to be found in 
these sectors. The routine-task jobs of the mi ddle-skilled that have been eliminated by the 
adoption of new technologies have predominantl y been in the manufactur ing sector. A number 
of national studies thus corroborat e the job polarisation hypothesis.  
                                                 
54 Goos and Manning, 2007. 
55 Dustman et al., 20 07; Spitz-Oener, 2006. 
 
EN 29   EN While polarisation exists in some countries it  is not a uniform pheno menon across Europe, as 
employment change has also involved upgrading and growth in the middle occupations in some 
countries. The recent report of the European  Foundation for Living and Working Conditions 
entitled ‘More and better jobs: Patterns of employment expansion in Europe’56 highlights five 
categories of change: polarisa tion (evident in CY, FR, HU, NL, SK); hybrid polarisation / 
upgrading (AT, BE, DE, SI, UK,);  upgrading (DK, FI, IE, LU, PT); hybrid upgrading /growth 
in the middle (CZ, ES, IT, SE); and growth in the middle (EE, EL, LT, LV). Few countries are 
thus experiencing a clear job polarisation.  
Furthermore, in intermediate occupational ca tegories where job losses are projected, these 
losses are more than offset by the estimated need  to replace workers leaving the labour market. 
Figure 2.10 illustrates that, despite a net loss of skilled manual jobs, close to 20 million jobs will still need to be filled in this category. Many of those intermediate occupations will remain crucial components of the economy and viable sources of jobs, but the nature of these jobs and their skill requirements will change. 
Figure 2.10 Decreasing demand for skilled manual occupations 
-5051015202530
High skilled
non manual
occupations
Skilled non-
manual
occupations
Skilled
manual
occupations
Elementary
occupationsMillion jobsNet job creation
Other job openings due to replacement demand
 
Source: CEDEFOP (2008). Data cover EU 25. 
Wage inequality as a consequen ce of skills demand shifts?  
                                                 
56 Eurofound, 2008d. 
 
EN 30   EN There has been an increase in wage inequality in Europe during the last few decades. Certainly, 
measurements of wage inequality should always be  considered in the light of the transfer and 
tax systems of the respective economies. But the pa tterns of wage inequality also reflect job 
polarisation and shifts in ski lls demand. Bottlenecks in segmen ts of the labou r market may 
exert upward pressure on wages for workers where demand exceeds supply.  
Various studies provide evidence of an increase in the wage premium fo r high-skilled workers 
during the last four decades,  though not for all countries nor across the whole time period57. 
The rising ratio of high-skilled people coincides with an even higher dema nd for their skills on 
the labour markets, so earnings differentials between low- and high-educated workers have 
been increasing. The labour income share of uns killed workers has decreased both in Europe 
and in the USA, while the share of high-skil led workers has increased  (see Figure 2.11). In 
Europe, the results for the medium -skilled are more mixed. In the USA, the income share of the 
medium-skilled has clearly decreased. In this case, the potential impact of job polarisation is illustrated by the convergence of the wages of the middle-skilled and the low-skilled 
workforce. Middle-skilled workers have thus lost ground in relation to the high-skilled and 
their convergence towards the low-skilled is reflected in the wage distribution
58. 
It is crucial for the assessment of future skill needs whether or not relative demand shifts 
towards the high-skilled really are persistent a nd can explain increasing wa ge inequality and/or 
unemployment. Technological change explains a substan tial part of these trends59. Recent 
studies, however, mostly agree that there are also  other factors inducing wage inequality. They 
argue that the observed wage patt erns are not necessarily the resu lt of a relative shift in skill 
prices but can also be explained by the changing composition of the workforce60. The argument 
is that there are considerable wa ge differentials within  skill groups. Hourly wage dispersion is 
typically higher among the group of high-skilled  workers than in the low-skilled group. The 
wide variations in the earnings of workers wi th a higher education level may be due to many 
factors. Intrinsic abil ity or even effort could matter mo re within this group than among the 
lower-skilled. Moreover, within given ski ll groups work experien ce reduces earnings 
dispersion, meaning that an older workfor ce could also lower wage inequality.  
Lastly, lower wages at the bottom of the job ladder  in the service sector raise the issue of the 
recognition of competences and sk ills necessary for these jobs. As stated above, these jobs 
require dealing with non-routine tasks and are more and more demanding61, which would need 
to be rewarded. The recognition (including financia l recognition) of the skills required in the 
service sectors is closel y related to the issue of gender equa lity on the labour market, as the 
majority of jobs in the serv ice sector are held by women62.  
                                                 
57 EENEE, 2008. 
58 EENEE, 2008. 
59 European Commission, 2007. 
60 See Autor et al 2005, Dustman et al. 2007; Lemieux 2006. 
61 Green, 2006. 
62 Conseil d’analyse stratégique, 2007. 
 
EN 31   EN Figure 2.11: Income share by level of skill  
Chart 31: Share in total labour compensation in Europe 
(10 Member States)
010203040506070
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000low-skilled medium-skilled high-skilledChart 32: Share in total labour compensation in the United 
States
010203040506070
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000low-skilled medium-skilled high-skilled 
Source: EU KLEMS63 database and European Commission, 2007.  
Note: the 10 countries for which the data are available are BE, DK, DE, ES, FR, IT, NL, AT, FI 
and UK.  
To sum up, while job polarisatio n is perceptible in some Memb er States, the current trends 
point towards increasing labour market requirements, including higher formal qualifications, 
but also a need for job-relevant skills (non-r outine skills, analytical  skills, communication 
skills, etc.). To assess the risk of skills mismatches, these trends in skills demand have to be compared with the current trends in skills supply.  
2.2.3.  Skills matches and mismatches 
Educational upgrading 
In addition to the quantitative evolution of the labour supply, qualitative trends are also 
perceptible. Currently, the EU em ployed population aged 15 to 74 years with tertiary education 
level is 56.7 million, while there are 107.4 million people in employment with ISCED level 3 
and 4, and another 53.5 million with ISCED levels 0 to 2
64. Overall educational attainment rates 
have increased in recent year s, as compulsory schooling has expanded in many countries and 
older age cohorts (with lower education levels) are retiring from the labour market. Increasing 
graduation rates from tertiary education across Eur opean countries indicate that this process is 
ongoing and widespread. In almost all countries, the proportion of the popul ation with tertiary 
education level is much higher among the younger than  the older cohorts (see Figure 2.12). As 
a consequence, the proportion of the working-ag e population with low educational attainment is 
                                                 
63 The EU KLEMS project "Productivity in the Europe an Union: A Comparative Industry Approach" was 
funded by the Socio-economic Sciences and Hu manities programme under Si xth Framework Programme 
of the European Union. All the outputs and conclusions of the project are available at: www.euklems.net 
64 Source: Eurostat, LFS. 
 
EN 32   EN decreasing (see Figure 2.13). This educational upgrading of the European population implies 
that there will in future be a higher suppl y of workers with higher education levels. 
Figure 2.12 Percentage of persons with te rtiary qualifications by age (2007) 
05101520253035
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
AgePercentage
 
Source: Eurostat (LFS), from European Co mmission (2008a), Progress Towards the Lisbon 
Objectives in Education and Traini ng. Indicators a nd benchmark — 2008 
Figure 2.13 Percentage of persons having attained a tertiary e ducation level, 15-64 year-olds 
0510152025303540
RO MT CZ SK IT PT AT HU PL BG SI LV EL DE LU LT FR NL ES SE DK EE BE IE UK FI CY2000
2007
 
Source: Eurostat (LFS), from European Co mmission (2008a), Progress Towards the Lisbon 
Objectives in Education and Traini ng. Indicators a nd benchmark — 2008. 
 
EN 33   EN Trends in skills acquired over and above formal educational attainment can be measured by 
surveys. For competences in reading, mathema tics and science, data are provided by the OECD 
PISA survey. According to this survey; the nu mber of low achievers in reading in the EU 
increased from 21.3% in 2000 to 24.1% in 200665. However, a majority of countries (13) 
reduced their share of low-performing st udents in mathematics between 2003 and 2006. 
Furthermore, the teaching of foreign language s in lower and upper s econdary education is 
strongly increasing. Therefore, trends are not obvious, with improvements in acquiring skills, but also deterioration in su ch a basic skill as reading. 
Changes by fields of study are also observed. For example, the number of graduates in maths, 
science and technology has increased ( 686 000 in 2000 and 872 000 in 2006). But gender 
segregation by field of study and occupational trai ning is changing very sl owly. At EU level, 
the female share of math, sciences, and techno logy graduates increased slightly from 30.8% in 
2000 to 31.2% in 2005
66. This may result in shortages in scientific and technical skills required 
by the labour market.  
The digital competence, the skil l for confident and critical use of ICT, is now taught, but 
progresses are insufficient. ICT is both a topi c and a new means for learning new skills for new 
jobs, providing multiple routes and tools for le arning within organized education and through 
informal peer support with inte rnet-based networking approaches67. The opportunities of new 
technologies have been recognized within educational institutions, but the extent of how business, services and jobs have transformed through ICT is not yet reflected in educational 
systems. Recent Commission Staff Working Paper encourages member states to deploy ICT for 
pedagogical, technical and organizational innovation in developing lifelong learning
68.Lastly, 
participation in lifelong learning has increased sl owly, but relatively fe w countries are moving 
towards making lifelong learning a reality (Den mark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, along 
with Norway and Iceland)69. In these countries, th e transition from educat ion to work and back 
again may occur more often in an individual’s life cycle.  
The upgrading trend observed among the younger c ohorts may only partly respond to the skills 
needs in the labour markets. 70% of the labour force in 2020 have already left the education system and are already working. Therefore, to  avoid qualitative imba lances in the labour 
market, lifelong learning is required. ICT have an important role to play in developing learning 
opportunities for older people in an ageing society. In this respect; a recen t report from IPTS 
points to both obstacles (e.g. not  user-friendly ICT) and opportuni ties: new social networks and 
communities emerging with technologies prov ide opportunities for learning and upgrading 
these skills with the su pport of peers, even fo r groups under risk of excl usion, such as senior 
workers
70. 
                                                 
65 See Progress toward the Lisbon objectives in education and training. Indicators and benchmark 2008, and 
OECD (2007), PISA 2006: Science Co mpetencies for Tomorrow’s World. 
66 Progress toward the Lisbon objectives in education and training. Indicators and benchmarks 2008. 
67 IPTS EUR report 22218 
68 SEC(2008) 2629 final 
69 Progress toward the Lisbon objectives in education and training. Indicators and benchmarks 2008. 
70 IPTS report 23414 
 
EN 34   EN A risk of skills mismatches?  
On top of quantitative imbalances, education a nd skills mismatches occur when there is a 
difference between the skills a worker provides and the skills necessary for the job. In particular, working in a job belo w an individual’s level of sk ills limits individual productivity 
and leads to ‘underutili sation of education’.  
Mismatches are usually explained by info rmation asymmetry between employers and 
employees, incomplete information on the labour market, heterogeneity among agents, and transaction costs
71. Job matching is particularly affected by problems of incomplete information 
and transaction costs. An indivi dual looking for a job will not have full information about the 
job, and a firm wanting to fill a vacancy will not have full information about the individual, and 
both parties will have to devote resources in order to search for a job and select among 
candidates, respectively. These imperfections result in the simultaneous existence of 
unemployment and vacant jobs in equilibrium, but  also the existence of skills mismatches. 
Measuring ‘underutilisation of educ ation’ is a rather difficult task  and most of the approaches 
do not deliver satisfactory results. For empiri cal research, skill mismatches are normally 
measured using either ‘objectiv e’ or ‘subjective’ definitions72. Subjective measures rely on 
what individuals report themselves on the utilis ation of skills. Normally, workers are directly 
asked whether they feel under- or over-edu cated or what the minimum educational 
requirements are for the job. Sometimes they have to answer whether ‘their current job offers 
sufficient scope to use their knowledge and ski lls’. The 2005 European Survey on Working 
Conditions provides a broad picture, by asking a question about current skills and job matching: 
only 52.3% of workers declare that ‘their duties correspond well to their present skills’; 13% 
‘need further training to cope well with their du ties’; 34.6% estimate that they ‘have the skills 
to cope with more demanding duties’ (with di fferences between count ries, see Figure 2.14). 
From graduate surveys, there is  evidence that at individual le vel supply does not always match 
demand. According to the REFLEX project for exam ple, some 10% of graduates indicated that 
their own competence level was lower than that  required of them in  the job and around 15% 
reported that their competence level exceeded th e requirements of their current position.  
More objective measures usually compare the year s of schooling attained by a worker with the 
average level of schooling within the worker’s occupation. Ot hers look at the educational level 
of the worker and compare this to the require ments of a specific job. However, apparent 
mismatches between occupations and formal education attainment may reflect ability 
differences between workers with the same level of formal education73.  
                                                 
71 Borjas, 2008; Cahuc and Zylberberg, 2004. 
72 Groot and Maassen van den Brink, 2000. 
73 Sloane, 2003; EENEE, 2008. 
 
EN 35   EN Figure 2.14 Skills mismatches: a subjective measure 
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%CZ  FI LT AT  PT DE  IT BE PLBG  LV EE MTDK  NL SI EU27 ES SKLU EL HU SVCY UK IERO FR 
Job-skills match: need more training 
Job-skills match: correspond well 
Job-skills match: could cope with more
demanding duties
 
Source: European Survey on Working Conditions (2005). 
Empirical evidence usually considers the wage differentials and differences in job satisfaction 
that are due to mismatches. ‘U nderutilisation of education’ ha s an overall effect on productivity 
levels as the allocation between jobs and worker s is not efficient. On the other hand, individual 
 
EN 36   EN outcomes such as wages and job satisfaction can be affected as  over-educated workers are not 
paid according to their marginal  productivity, and do not feel sa tisfied in jobs that do not 
correspond well to their competences.  
Besides theories that consider skill mismatch es as a persistent phenomenon, other arguments 
indicate that it is more a transitional problem. Analysis suggests that there are different ways for workers to accumulate skills over the life cy cle (e.g. formal education, vocational training, 
and work-related experience), which combine with different ways of gaining access to 
employment. Young workers may be assigned to j obs that do not coincide  with their formal 
education because they lack experience. As th ey get older they become more productive and 
the temporary ‘underutilisation of education’ disappears
74. This so-called ‘waiting-room effect’ 
implies that differences in demanded and availabl e skills diminish over the life cycle. That is 
why perceived skill mismatches are often observe d for young graduates. Pe ople accept jobs that 
do not match their educational level but can make  up for their initial lack of work experience75. 
This suggests that while ‘underutilisation of e ducation’ is a reality, it is only a temporary 
phenomenon that can be overcome by upward mobility on the labour market or inside the firm. Such transitional discrepancies primarily relate  to a lack of ICT skills among young graduates 
at the beginning of their working career. Ho wever, underutilisation of education remains a 
persistent phenomenon for mi grants in some countries
76. As a result, labour markets tend to 
make inefficient use of the potential of  immigration to help fill skills gaps. 
Lastly, one could consider whether observed skill mismatches, if reliably identified, are rather 
the result of ‘wrong education’ than of ‘unde rutilisation of educatio n’. Evidence shows that 
working in another field increas es skill mismatches even t hough the level of education is 
perfectly matched77. One important conclusion of the repor t on the REFLEX project by Van der 
Velden and Allen is the signifi cant role of professional expert ise as a determinant of labour 
market success. They also present consequences of these skill mismatches for wages and show different effects for different fi elds of study. However, they ar e far away from presenting any 
reliable patterns that could be used to derive  implications for specific fields of education or 
study. Furthermore, employers differ in the importan ce they attach to fields of study. Empirical 
evidence highlights the existence of different ‘m odes’ or ‘pathways’ for access to employment 
across sectors or occupations
78. In some sectors and in some occupations, the field of study is 
less important for employment success.  
This section provides a first estimation of existing mismatches between labour demand and 
supply. These mismatches are likely to both conti nue and change in character as a consequence 
of the key trends described above. Labour  demand and skills needs are changing both 
quantitatively and qualitatively; labour and skills supply are changing too. This situation 
increases the need for anticipatory mechanisms so that policies for education and training and 
active labour market measures can be well info rmed, but also increases the challenges for 
making valid forecasts. 
                                                 
74 Alba-Ramirez, 1993. 
75 Allen and de Vries, 2004. 
76 Fernandez C. and Ortega C, 2008. 
77 Allen and deWeert, 2007. 
78 See Employment in Europe 2008, chapter 5. 
 
EN 37   EN 3. ANTICIPATION  AND  MATCHING:  AN EVALUATION  OF EXISTING  
PRACTICES  AT NATIONAL  AND  INTERNATIONAL  LEVEL 
This section examines existing practices in anticipating future skill needs and matching 
policies. Firstly, it presen ts international experi ence and the experiences in European countries. 
The section then moves on to consider matching  policies and successful measures adopted in 
response to identified problems and issues. 
3.1. Mapping and evaluation of anticipatory  tools at internat ional level and in 
European countries 
This section examines the methods, approaches and tools used for anticipatin g skill needs. It is 
based on two main sources: CEDEFOP’s Systems for anticipation of skill needs in the EU 
Member States, 2008, and the questionnaires completed by the SYSDEM correspondents. 
Where appropriate, responses to Eurydice ques tionnaires are used to illustrate country 
situations. 
The practices identified in this section cover both international experi ence and the experience 
across European countries. The se ction then concludes with an  overview of emerging holistic 
practices and the issues arising from the review of anticipatory tools.  
3.1.1.  Measuring skill shortages 
Defining and measuring skill shortages has proved a difficult issue and there is no generally 
accepted measure (for a recent review see the la test report by the UK Migration Advisory 
Committee)79. The most commonly used indicators are: 
- unfilled vacancies (and various related indicator s), which are seen as reflecting problems in 
obtaining skills from the external labour market; and 
- skills gaps, which reflect a lack of skills among those currently employed (reflecting skill 
deficiencies in the internal market). 
Information on unfilled vacancies can be obtaine d from administrative  sources. In many 
countries, public employment services mainta in databases of this kind. However, while 
comprehensive for some kinds of jobs, they tend  not to be representati ve of all employment, 
especially not for higher-level vacancies, which are often advertised thro ugh private rather than 
public agencies. 
The lack of reliable vacancy statistics in most Member States means that  alternative qualitative 
and quantitative methods, typically  employer surveys, are used to measure skill and labour 
shortages. In a number of countries, surveys of employers have been used for a number of years 
to measure current imbalances in skills demand and supply. The National Employer Skills Surveys conducted for England over the past decade provide a good example of this approach 
                                                
 
79 Migration Advisory Committee (2008), Skilled, Shortage, Sensible: The recommended shortage 
occupation lists for the UK and Scotland. Migration Advisory Committee. ISBN: 978-1-84726-823-5 (www.ukba.home o ffice.gov.uk/mac). 
 
EN 38   EN (Box 3.1). Similar surveys have also been conducte d in other parts of the UK and elsewhere in 
Europe.  
CEDEFOP’s analysis of the surv eys conducted indicates that while the types of questions asked 
in these surveys are similar, th e structure, sampling techniques and methods of data collection 
vary, so the results are not comparable. Employe r surveys are discussed in more detail in 
section 3.2.3. 
Box 3.1: National Employer Sk ills Surveys (England)  
These surveys have been conducted since the late 1990s following the recommendation of 
the UK National Skills Task Force that better measures of current skills imbalances were 
needed on a regular basis. Their main objectiv es are to quantify the scale and patterns of 
both internal and external skill deficiencies. They have been undertaken biennially since 
2001, using broadly similar methods. 
National-level surveys (over 70 000 employers) provide representative  data by sector, 
occupational and geographical areas , at a quite detailed level of  aggregation. Data are based 
on large-scale telephone surveys of employ ers (HR departments), using a structured 
questionnaire. 
The National Learning and Skills Council is the responsible organisation. The surveys 
provide regular updates on the scale and patterns of skill deficiencies. In many cases, the shortages appear to be ephemeral (as might be  expected if markets adjust to deal with 
imbalances). In some cases there are persiste nt problems (often in parts of the economy 
where market mechanisms are not working freely). 
This tool provides useful guidance to policy makers and individual labour market actors 
about problems.  
3.1.2.  Quantitative model-based projections 
International experience 
Forecasting the changing demand for skills has now  been a regular feature in some countries 
for well over half a century, and for many decades in a number of others. The Bureau of Labor 
Statistics (BLS) in the USA wa s one of the pioneers of labour market projections. Originally 
introduced to help guide the transition of serv icemen back into civili an employment following 
wartime service, the BLS projections are now undertaken with the aim of producing useful 
labour market information that can help to gui de the decision-making of all those involved in 
the labour market (Box 3.2). 
Box 3.2 Projections by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics 
The BLS projections produce detail ed projections of employment  by sector and occupation in 
order to guide decision-making by policy makers  and others. The first projections were 
published in the 1950s. They ar e now conducted biennially. 
The use of a detailed multisectoral macroeconomic  model produces very detailed quantitative 
projections of employment by industry and occupation, for the whole of the USA and other 
 
EN 39   EN geographical sub-areas, over the medium and long term. 
These projections are freely dist ributed and used by others to develop other products and 
services. The USA is a market-driven economy a nd the work of the BLS is designed to help 
the labour market to work by providing particip ants with regular information about trends 
and possible future developments. The results  are not intended for mechanistic planning 
purposes. They are complemented by other activities, including the Occupational 
Employment Statistics survey and the O*NET system for monitoring changing skill needs 
within occupations. 
CEDEFOP’s work on skills forecasting provid es a European / international example of 
medium- to long-term skills forecasting. The CEDEFOP intends to produce regular forecasts of skills needs in Europe over a 5-10 year horizo n. Work has already started with preliminary 
projections being published. This  work should produce evidence  on future labour-market 
demand for skills as measured by  occupations and qualifications. In addition, it  will involve 
comparisons between skill supply and demand to indicate possible imba lances on the labour 
market and an evaluation of projections agai nst outcomes. It will provide an enriched 
knowledge-base on future skill need s in the European labour mark et for evidence-based policy 
making, improved labour market intelligence a nd informed counselling and guidance services. 
The European Commission has sponsored other qua ntitative projections and modelling. As an 
example, the Institute for Prospective Technol ogical Studies (IPTS) has also analysed the 
impact of technological change on employme nt and skills structure using quantitative 
projection
80. IPTS has also developed alternative s cenarios about the increases in R&D and 
innovation expenditures (more di versified or more concentr ated on some sectors).  
European experience: medium- and- long term forecasting activities 
A range of medium- and long-term forecasting activ ities of different types are being carried out 
across Europe81. For the forecasts shown in Table 3.3 in Annex 182, which are illustrative of the 
types of activities undertaken, the forecast pe riod varies, with the medium-term forecasts 
looking around five years83 ahead while the long-term for ecasts look further forward (a 
minimum of 10 years). In most cases, however, countries also produce a short-term profile 
showing how things are expect ed to evolve year on year. 
In countries where medium- and long-term for ecasting methods are not apparent, short-term 
‘forecasting’, other surveys, stud ies and qualitative methods are typically adopted. Short-term 
forecasting complements medium- and long-term  forecasts in some countries whereas it 
appears to be the only method used in others84. 
European experience: the orientation and scope of quantitative projections 
                                                 
80 See IPTS (2002) for example. 
81 CEDEFOP’s Towards Euro pean skill need forecasti ng (2007), Systems, ins titutional frameworks and 
processes for early identification of skills (2007), Systems for anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States (2008, draft version); SYSDEM responses. 
82 Based on the SYSDEM responses. 
83 Forecasts referenced here are regional forecasts. 
84 Based on analysis of the SYSDEM responses. 
 
EN 40   EN Table 3.3 in Annex 1 highlights the varied natu re of forecasting activities, their purpose and 
scope. What is done is heavily dependent on the statistical infrastructure available in each 
country. More sophisticated and more quantitative approaches are only feasible where the state 
has made a substantial prior investment in  data (i.e. National Accounts, input–output 
information, and consistent time series on employ ment and other key indi cators are available). 
Although just one example is given in most cases, a range of activities are frequently performed 
(see section 3.2.5). 
Forecasting activities can be demand-oriented85, but in some cases have both a supply and 
demand dimension86. In two countries, Denmark and Germ any, forecasting activities examine 
flows through and out of educati on (schools and higher education). 
In terms of the scope of forecas ting activities, most of those s hown in Table 3.3 (in the Annex) 
are driven by national forecasts of employment by sector87, which in some cases also include a 
regional dimension88. Most activities include occupational forecasts89, others focus on 
educational levels or groups90, while some do both91.  
European experience: developing and in troducing frameworks for forecasting 
Where there is little or no prev ious experience of forecasting, m echanisms are now being put in 
place to anticipate future skil l needs (HR, LU). ESF funding ha s historically been used to 
support the development of forecasting methods (ES,  FI and IT). Indeed in Finland, where there 
is a long tradition of quantit ative forecasting, activities expa nded and diversified following 
accession in 1994 with ESF support. 
The UK helped to organise a series of inte rnational symposia and workshops in the 1980s, 
which resulted in an exchange of ideas between  countries with well-established systems (e.g. 
FR and DE) and others just beginning to devel op their systems (e.g. IE and NL). Subsequently, 
there has been a further diffusion of ideas and be st practice from these countries to others. For 
example, the Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA) at Maastricht 
University works with CERGE-EI to develop forecasting in the Czech Republic, and Ireland is 
working with other countries in Eastern Europe to help them to  establish practical and useful 
systems for skills needs an ticipation. Many of thes e initiatives have been  under the auspices of 
Cedefop. 
More recently, as part of the Mutual Lear ning Programme of the European Employment 
Strategy (formerly known as the Peer Review progr amme), a general review of approaches to 
skills needs assessment was undertaken at a Peer Review meeting in Finl and (Helsinki). This 
looked at the Finnish approach to forecasting ski lls and labour market needs and considered the 
lessons to be learned from a number of other countries92. The Lisbon agenda and EU-level 
                                                 
85 AT, CY, FR, IE, IT, LT, PL, UK. 
86 AT, CZ, DK, EE, FI, FR, LT, LV, NL, NO, PL, RO, SE , UK, DE. Countries can appear in more than one 
category where multiple foreca sting activities are identified. 
87 E.g. AT, CY, EE, FI, FR, IE, IT, LT, LV, NL, NO, SE, UK. 
88 AT, FI, FR, IE, IT, LT, NL, PL, SE, UK. 
89 AT, CY, EE, FR, IT, LT. 
90 DE, DK, FI, NO, PL, SE. 
91 CZ, IE, NL, RO, UK. 
92 For further information see the website: http://www.mutual-learning-employment.net . 
The final report is at: http://pdf.mutual-learning-e mployment.net/pdf/finland06/Summary%20report.pdf. 
 
EN 41   EN initiatives have contributed to the develo pment of systems for the identification and 
anticipation of skill needs.  
3.1.3.  Surveys 
Employer surveys 
There are no international surveys directly co ncerned with the assessment and anticipation of 
skill needs. Cedefop has reviewed what is available recently and concluded that there is little prospect of any immediate harmonisa tion of individual  country surveys
93. The SYSDEM 
responses point to a number of employer surveys of various types, which are presented in Table 
3.4 in Annex 2. These surveys provide an illust ration of the types of  survey activities 
undertaken, though cannot be considered a complete  overview of such ac tivities. In line with 
CEDEFOP’s findings, the scale and scope of the surveys conducted vary as do the methodologies adopted. There are potentially many di fferent interests and possible foci for such 
a survey at pan-European level. These include surveys to monitor and measure: 
• changes in historical employment structure (the demand for skills); 
• possible future skill needs; 
• current skill shortages and skill gaps (including various job vacancy surveys); 
• recruitment practices; 
• adaptation to change; 
• links between skills and performance; 
• continuing vocational training; 
• different aspects of skills (such as key, core and generic skills). 
One employer survey cannot meet all these needs. There is a need  to focus on what are the key 
questions to which answers are ne eded. What is most useful in terms of anticipating changing 
skill needs will depend on the different approaches adopted to anticipate skill needs as well as 
the state of the existing statistical infrastructure. 
The main method used across the world for projec ting future skill needs relies on quantitative 
analysis, based on formal econometric models. However, good basic data on occupational 
employment structure are an essential prerequisite for building such models. The use of employer surveys as an altern ative to such quan titative methods is now being debated
94. If the 
prime objective is anticipating future skills needs, then it might appear that focusing on this is the obvious choice. However, pa st experience suggests that em ployers are not very good at 
                                                
 
93 see Wilson, 2008b. 
94 For example at the joint Cedefop OECD workshop  on the use of employer surveys, May 2008. 
 
EN 42   EN anticipating their future skill needs95. Such results have usually turned out to be biased and 
inconsistent. 
Indeed, employers can be either too conc erned by their own company and their local 
constraints, or find it difficult to analyse the ke y factors, both backwards and forwards, and to 
describe possible options, their more likely strategies and o ccupational consequences. This 
points to the need to organise sector councils where a genuine and collectiv e discussion can be 
held, and where consensual positions can be e xpected, based on clear ar guments that all other 
prospective models, especially the statistical ones, usually conceal. 
However, surveys of employers in many countrie s are a key element in helping to anticipate 
changing skill needs. Such surveys can provide crucial insights into current trends, as well as 
providing the basic data for build ing quantitative models to help  anticipate future change.  
There are a number of examples  of good and useful practice. In  particular, th e Occupational 
Employment Statistics survey (OES) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the USA 
stands out as delivering robust and very detailed data on bot h employment and pay, which are 
highly valued by users. The OES started in 196 8 and has gradually established a very sound 
statistical base to build a w hole range of modelling and mon itoring activities, including the 
anticipation of changing occupati onal structures as carried out  by the BLS. One of its prime 
supporters from a financial perspective is the agency responsible for monitoring immigration 
flows. The survey provides crucial informati on on changing patterns of demand, as well as 
wages, which can be used to help identify occupations where there is a case for allowing 
inward migration. The availability of data on pay (as well as numbers) provides the basis for 
analysing substitution effects and de veloping growth accounting models. 
Surveys among workers, learners and graduates 
To assess trends in skills supply and occupati ons, some cross-country surveys among learners 
and workers are also relevant, including the Labour Force Survey and the European Survey on 
Working Conditions conducted every five years by the European Foundation for the 
Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. Bo th surveys provide a rich supply of pan-
European labour market information.  
A new OECD initiative, the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult 
Competencies (PIAAC), will assess the level and distribution of knowledge, skills and attitudes 
in a coherent and consistent way across countries . PIACC, which will be administered for the 
first time in 2011, will focus on the key cognitive and workplace skills that are required for successful participation in the economy and so ciety. To achieve this goal, four areas of 
competency will be assessed — problem-solvi ng in a technology-rich environment, reading 
literacy, numeracy, and mastery of the basic build ing blocks of literacy. Data from PIAAC will 
allow investigation of the links between key cognitive skills and a range of demographic variables, economic and other outcomes as well as  the use of skills in the workplace and other 
settings. It is expected to provide a rich eviden ce base for policy-relevant analysis. In particular, 
data from PIAAC should facilita te a better understanding of labou r-market returns to education, 
identify the role cognitive skills play in improving the labour market prospects of at-risk 
                                                
 
95 See the review in Wilson, et al. (2004). 
 
EN 43   EN populations, and examine the efficiency of ma tching the skills possessed by individuals with 
the skills demanded in the workplace. 
Less related to labour market needs, PISA (Pro gramme for International Student Assessment) 
and AHELO (Assessment of Higher  Education Learning Outcomes ) can nevertheless provide 
insights into trends in skills supply. Every thre e years, PISA assesses the knowledge and skills 
of 15 year-old students. It can track chan ges in reading, mathematics and scientific 
competences that are useful in daily life.  AHELO can help in monitoring reforms and 
evaluating higher education institutions, by meas uring learning outcomes and the ‘added-value’ 
provided by these institutions. Howe ver, AHELO is still at a very  preliminary stage, since the 
feasibility study is not expect ed until the end of 2010. Accord ing to Eurydice responses, 
surveys among graduates and learners are also wi despread at national level. Mostly, however, 
they do not assess learning outcome s, but labour market outcomes96.  
At European level, the surveys undertaken for the Tuning project aim to  obtain the opinions of 
graduates, academics and employers on skills requirements, curricula and learning outcomes. Such consultation has been undertaken twic e on quite a large scale. Every university 
participating in the surveys had to select gr aduates, academics and employers known to hire 
graduates of the university, and ask them to fill in a questionnaire on the importance of a list of competences and the level of achievement in these competences:  
– instrumental competences: capacity for analysis and synthesis, capacity for 
organisation and planning, basic ge neral knowledge, grounding in basic 
knowledge of a profession, oral and wr itten communication in one’s native 
language, knowledge of a second langua ge, elementary computing skills, 
information management skills, problem solving, decision making;  
– interpersonal competences: critical a nd self-critical abilities, teamwork, 
interpersonal skills, ability to work in  an interdisciplinary team, ability to 
communicate with experts in other fiel ds, appreciation of diversity and 
multiculturality, ability to work in an in ternational context, ethical commitment; 
– systemic competences: capacity to apply knowledge in practice, research skills, 
capacity to learn, capacity to adapt to new situations, capacity for generating 
new ideas, leadership, adaptability to work autonomously, project design and 
management, initiative and entrepreneur ial spirit, concern for quality, will to 
succeed.  
Each university was then expected to do the anal ysis, compare its outcome to other institutions 
and draw its own conclusions and develop its own strategy. The Tuning project is thus 
developed by universities for universities in orde r to allow them to better adapt their curricula 
and define degree programmes in terms of learni ng outcomes, which leads to qualifications that 
are more transparent and ultimately better tuned to the needs of the labour market. 
Lastly, the LLL2010 project, whic h is the acronym for " Life long Learning 2010 - Towards a 
Lifelong Learning Society in Europe: The Contribution of the Education System" will also 
                                                
 
96 See, for example, the French surveys ‘Généra tion 92’, ‘Génération 98’ and ‘Génération 2001’, 
undertaken by Céreq in order to analyse the labour market career of each generation three years after 
leaving the education and training system. 
 
EN 44   EN analyse and compare the point of views of indivi duals, education institutions and enterprises, 
with a focus on adult learners. Its aims and objec tives are to study the effect of country-specific 
institutions on access of adults to the education system and to assess the effectiveness of access 
policies and practices in different EU member, as  well as in associated countries and their 
implications for the creation of European kn owledge society. Thirteen different European 
countries / regions are involved in the survey : Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, England, 
Estonia, Belgium (Flanders), Hungary, Ireland,  Lithuania, Norway, Scotland, Slovenia and 
Russian Federation. The study will be carried ou t on three levels: macro, meso and micro in 
order to look at the interaction and relations hip between macro-struct ural factors, national 
policies, institutional factors and adults as potential learners. It is planned to collect data from 
three different types of sources: (a) individual s (a survey of adult learners in schools and 
universities, data from Eurostat  driven Lifelong Learning Surv ey which will take place in 
2005); (b) education institutions (interviews with schools' management, officials of education ministries); (c) enterprises (i nterviews with SME management).  The methodological aims of 
the project are an asse ssment of indicators used in Eurost at driven EU Lifelong Learning 
Survey (2005) and an elaboration of indicator s to be used for monitoring lifelong learning in 
formal education settings
97. 
3.1.4.  Foresight: examples at sect oral or regional level  
In the field of anticipatory analyses, the specif icities and benefits of foresight exercises are 
increasingly recognised. The FOR-LERAN onl ine Foresight Guide developed by JRC-IPTS98 
underlines four characteristics that distinguish foresight from the studies mentioned above, 
namely quantitative projections a nd different kind of surveys.  
- foresight activities are frequently more mult idisciplinary and opened to various type of 
information (quantitative and qualitative).  
- Assuming that alternative futures are possible,  these activities include the identification and 
description of scenarios.  
- foresight is participatory : it is built on the knowledge and intelligence of various stakeholders 
- it is action-oriented : it cons iders the actions that should be  taken to build the future.  
To sum up, foresight should not only think the future, but it should also debate the 
future and shape it. Various foresights activities, directly or indirectly related to jobs and skills are described and map on the IPTS website
99. The IPTS is currently looking 
at how innovation in services wi ll affect skills and knowledge100, using foresight 
methodology. One of the most relevant foresight projects dealing explicitly with the future of jobs and skills is undertaken at the sector level. 
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging  competences and economic activities in the 
European Union 
                                                
 
97 For further information, see the the project website: http://lll2010.tlu.ee 
98 http://forlearn.jr c.ec.europa.eu/guide/0_home/index.htm 
99 http://forera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ 
100 IPTS study for 2009 entitled "Innovation in the Euro pean Service Economy- scenarios and implications 
for skills and knowledge" 
 
EN 45   EN At European level, the European Commission ha s commissioned a number of sectoral studies 
using a common foresight methodology to identify emerging competences and changes. Studies 
have started beginning of 2008 a nd the final results for all st udies are expected by May 2009. 
The following sixteen sectors have been identified and selected as sensitive to restructuring and 
skills needs:  
Sectors Covered 
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products 
Printing and publishing 
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products 
Non-metallic materials (glass, cement, ceramic, etc.) 
Electromechanical engineering 
Computer, electronic and optical products 
Building of ships and boats 
Furniture and other 
Electricity, gas, water & waste 
Distribution, trade 
Hotels, restaurants, catering and related services 
Transport 
Post and telecommunications 
Financial services (bank,  insurance and others) 
Health and social work 
Other services, maintenance and cleaning 
 
The European cross-sector foresight methodol ogy that underpins thes e studies includes the 
following steps:  
– mapping of a sector, including analysis of the main economic and employment 
trends, importance of the value chai n and outsourced services, and SWOT 
analysis; 
– identification of the main drivers of ch ange and the main emerging or changing 
skills and competences in the sector; 
 
EN 46   EN – sketching the main scenarios for plausible evolution and their implications for 
employment trends over a period up to 2020; 
– identification of implications for comp etences and occupation profiles in terms 
of jobs expanding, transforming or declining; 
– outlining strategic choices to meet the sector’s skills needs; 
– identification of specific implications of  the sector’s skills needs for education 
and training; 
– recommendations addressing the different stakeholders (socia l partners, public 
authorities at all levels, institutions of training and education).  
Scenarios should reflect the fore sight nature of this exercise . The studies accordingly differ 
from the quantitative analysis performed by th e Skillsnet team together with Cedefop. The 
scenarios here are not based on an extrapolation of past trends into the future with a pessimistic, 
neutral and optimistic scenario. In  this foresight exercise, they build upon drivers of the future 
evolution of employment. It is al so important to note th at scenarios should mainly be affected 
by structural factor s rather than cycl ical ones given the medium-ter m horizon. In that sense, the 
current financial crisis and the looming rece ssion may have only limited consequences on the 
direction of the scenario s. This depends also on the sector studied.  
The results of these studies are submitted to a panel of experts in the sectors. These panels are 
constituted of experts in the sect ors, from the industry, social pa rtners, academics and experts in 
education and training systems in order to bui ld consensus on the findings and ensure support 
for the recommendations. 
First results from various sectors can illust rate the methodology. The study on the shipbuilding 
industry identifies five key drivers. It then es timates the consequence of each key factor on the 
development of new skills and new jobs. One exam ple illustrating the sketch of scenarios is is 
the automotive study, where two scenarios were de veloped according to the relative impact of 
the different drivers of change in the sector: a pessimistic scenario, ‘Reduced attractiveness of 
advanced passenger cars’ on the one hand, and an optimistic scenario, ‘New cars for safe and 
sustainable transport’, on the other. In both  scenarios, strong dema nd is expected for high-
skilled occupations such as managers, engineer s, for more technical occupations such as 
electricians and for low-skilled workers, while a decline is expected for skilled manual workers 
such as metal moulders, tool makers or mechanic s. The implications of the different scenarios 
in terms of jobs and sk ills are then discussed and estima ted. As an example, the study on the 
textiles, clothing, footwear and leather products identifies the evolutions of skills, knowledge 
and competences required in different jobs.  
 
EN 47   EN The identification of key drivers: the example of the shipbuilding industry 
1
EMERGING COMPETENCES 
IN THE EU SHIPBUILDING 
SECTORGlobalisationInternational customer relationships 
International manufacturing & design 
Multicultural working environmentsInternational customer relationships 
International manufacturing & design 
Multicultural working environments
InnovationNew design methods 
New materials
New products
New production processesNew design methods 
New materials
New products
New production processes
Flexible organisations
Qualified & specialised personnel
Team work
Autonomy & proactivityFlexible organisations
Qualified & specialised personnel
Team work
Autonomy & proactivityMultiskilling
Coordination & organisation 
Logistics 
Communication and project management 
Marketing/sales 
FinanceCoordination & organisation 
Logistics 
Communication and project management 
Marketing/sales 
FinanceOutsourcing
Manpower management & planning 
Managers and cadres 
Environmental friendly processes & 
products 
Health & safety 
QualityManpower management & planning 
Managers and cadres 
Environmental friendly processes & 
products 
Health & safety 
QualityOther knowledge areas
 
The example of the automotive sector: summary of the two European scenarios and level of impact101 
Level of  
impact Scenario 1 ‘ Reduced attractiveness of advanced
cars’  Scenario 2 ‘ New car for safe and sustainable 
transport’  
OEMs Generalist: 
– Massive restructuring 
– Consolidation, hostile takeover risk 
Specialist: 
– Continuing in niche segment and exportGeneralist: 
– Restructuring through mergers / 
acquisition and purchase of new 
activities 
– Opportunity for joint ventures with Asian 
partners 
– Innovation and cost strategies 
– New forms of cooperation 
Specialist:  
– Continuing in niche segment and export 
Equipment 
Suppliers – Major restructuring: closure and 
voluntary liquidation 
– Consolidation with newcomers from 
emerging countries 
– Hostile takeover risk – Regrouping of major system 
manufacturers through external growth 
– Creation of value chain hierarchy — 
systems, modules, components 
– Relocation of component manufacturers 
– Creation of large component suppliers 
                                                 
101 Idem. 
 
EN 48   EN Regional – Major problems for EU15, incl. 
Germany (leading producer in EU) 
– Temporary resistance of NMS – Improved transport conditions 
– Specialisation in Europe around high-
innovation car design centres 
– NMS: leading equipment manufacture 
area 
Jobs and 
Skills – Restructuring 
– Major decline of car industry activities 
in Europe 
– Still a need for high-skilled workers – Restructuring, but also creation of jobs 
– Major training needs 
– Major need for qualified labour 
(managers, engineers, computer 
specialists, electricians) in central and 
eastern Europe 
 
Knowledge and competences required according to different scenarios; the example of 
the textile industry: 
Market oriented
Efficiency oriented
CreativeInterdisciplinary
Multi-skilled
CreativeSustainable
products and 
technologies
TraditionalResearch & developmentInternational 
businessInternational
businessEnvironmental
legislation
(REACH)AdministrationCompetition
oriented
Market knowledge
InterculturalClient oriented
Technical
knowledge
Trend setting
InterculturalConsumer
oriented
Socially
responsibleMarketing and salesQuality
management
Market orientedStrategic, visionary
interculturalChange 
management
Network
managementGeneral managementScenario 3
Advanced
New Member
StatesScenario 2
Asian dominance –
European 
excellenceScenario 1
Globalisation
limitedFunction
Market oriented
Efficiency oriented
CreativeInterdisciplinary
Multi-skilled
CreativeSustainable
products and 
technologies
TraditionalResearch & developmentInternational 
businessInternational
businessEnvironmental
legislation
(REACH)AdministrationCompetition
oriented
Market knowledge
InterculturalClient oriented
Technical
knowledge
Trend setting
InterculturalConsumer
oriented
Socially
responsibleMarketing and salesQuality
management
Market orientedStrategic, visionary
interculturalChange 
management
Network
managementGeneral managementScenario 3
Advanced
New Member
StatesScenario 2
Asian dominance –
European 
excellenceScenario 1
Globalisation
limitedFunction
 
 
EN 49   EN Delivery-time
orientedDelivery-time
orientedEnergy efficiency
orientedLogisticsLarge-scale
control systemsDiversified
standardsEnvironmental
standardsQuality controlQuality oriented
Mass-productionClient oriented
Technical
knowledgeSmall scale
Specialised
Crafts-orientedProductionCost control
Quality controlSupervision of 
global value chainEnergy and 
emission control
Cost controlProcess engineering
Delivery-time
orientedDelivery-time
orientedEnergy efficiency
orientedLogisticsLarge-scale
control systemsDiversified
standardsEnvironmental
standardsQuality controlQuality oriented
Mass-productionClient oriented
Technical
knowledgeSmall scale
Specialised
Crafts-orientedProductionCost control
Quality controlSupervision of 
global value chainEnergy and 
emission control
Cost controlProcess engineering
 
The studies will not be limited to th e sectors in the narrow sense, but  will also take into account 
the value chain and outsour ced services. Furthermore, a cross- cutting analysis of the sectoral 
studies to identify connections between sector  activities and identify the main horizontal 
activities is also planned as a complement to the sectoral studies. The analysis should reveal possible transfers of occupations between sectors. This study will be launched in 2009, once the sector studies have been completed.  
A study on regional challenges looking ahead to 2020
102 will also use a scenario-based 
approach. A further study103 will assess the imp act of globalisation on re gional economies with 
high shares of employment in sect ors exposed to global competition.  
At national level, table 3.5 (in Annex 3) summa rises the qualitative approaches, including 
foresight processes, used for anticipating skil l needs as identified in  the SYSDEM responses. 
These examples illustrate the types of qualitativ e activities undertaken. Th e examples provided 
in the SYSDEM responses show that a variety of  ad hoc studies have been conducted at sector 
level. A number of regional studies have be en reported, while oc cupational profiles and 
qualifications also feature in th e responses provided. Other sources104 reveal many more 
examples in many countries.  
In addition to quantitative proj ections of occupational demand and skill requirements, more 
qualitative exercises are needed, such as foresi ght analyses, employer surveys, case studies or 
job competence modelling exercises. These are essential to identifying new trends in competence requirements and changes in the cont ent of occupations. Qualitative surveys offer 
insights into industry dynamics, technological  developments, market and professional 
constraints, forms of organisation, employers’ stra tegies and the threats they face. While this 
contextual information can be difficult to collect , it helps identify the ev olution of occupations 
                                                
 
102 To be launched by the European Commission at the end of 2008. 
103 Commissioned by the European Commission. 
104 See Cedefop (2007), Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for the early identification of skill 
needs, Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of  skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion 
paper. 
 
EN 50   EN and forecasting scenarios. While it can be challe nging to place occupations within a systemic 
group of related occupations, this  would help to identify tran sferable competences and any 
activities in which workers could progress105. The development of qualification frameworks 
(such as those mentioned in the Spanish and Portuguese SYSDEM responses) could facilitate this process. 
3.1.5.  Towards holistic approaches? 
There is evidence of a holistic approach to anti cipating skills needs emerging in Member States, 
using quantitative and qualitative methods to ach ieve robust and reliable results. In some 
countries, forecasts have become one of many pieces  of information that contribute to a more 
detailed, consistent and plausible picture of future skill needs (see Table 3.2)
106. 
Table 3.2 Towards holistic systems?  
Towards holistic 
systems?  Characterisation Countries  
Decentralised system The system is developed mostly at trade, 
sector or local level. Systematic anticipation of skill needs at national level is not very pronounced.  DK, ES, EL, HU, 
LT, LV, PT, SK, SI  
Coordinated non-holistic system The system is quite well-developed with 
quantitative forecasting being a major building block, although some qualitative elements are incorporated in the forecasts and qualitative surveys are conducted in parallel.  CY, FI, IE  
 
On the way to a 
coordinated holistic system The system is mostly based on medium-term 
macro-level quantitative forecasting that incorporates some qualitative elements of sectoral and/or othe r trend projections. A 
number of efforts at national, regional and sector level aim for a more systematic, complementary and holistic approach. These countries are attempting to establish permanent skill needs monitoring.  CZ, EE, IT, PL  
 
Coordinated holistic 
system Very well-developed and long-established 
system based on medium- and/or short-term macro-level forecasts, a system of sectoral studies, regular questionnaire-based skills surveys among employers, regular regional surveys on employment AT, DE, FR, NL, 
SE, UK  
                                                 
105 Mériot, 2004. 
106 CEDEFOP (2008), Systems for anticipation of skills needs in the EU, discussion paper. 
 
EN 51   EN Source: CEDEFOP (2008) 
In both the French and UK cases, forecasting has sectoral and geographical  dimensions and is 
supported by surveys and qualitative studies a nd scenarios. In the UK case, the Working 
Futures projections are part of a much broader holis tic approach to assessing future skills needs, 
as set out in the Leitch report. Further informa tion on the UK context and approach is given in 
Box 3.3. The recent work on ‘Jobs in 2015’ (Les métiers en 2015), conducted by DARES and the "Centre d’Analyse Stratégique" in France, is also a good example of a comprehensive 
assessment of future skills needs.  
Box 3.3: UK’s approach to anticipating skill needs 
The establishment of the Learning and Skills  Council (with its 47 local arms) and the 
development of the Sector Skills Councils ( SSCs) signalled the UK government’s intention 
that the anticipation of training and qualifica tion needs should be driven largely by labour 
market needs at national, regional and local level. 
Traditional labour market forecasting technique s have been refined and holistic approaches 
are also being used. Quantitative met hods include extrapol ative techniques, 
behavioural/econometric models (using the multi-sectoral dynamic model maintained by 
Cambridge Econometrics), employer surveys a nd skills audits. Qualitative approaches 
include Delphi techniques, case studies, focu s groups and holistic modelling approaches, 
such as scenarios. SSCs also consult with employers and gath er qualitative information from 
them and sector experts. They can also co mmission bespoke, sector-specific forecasts and, 
with awarding bodies, review th e uptake of qualifications. 
Activities anticipating skill n eeds are oriented sectorally and have a regional and local 
dimension. 
Each of the 25 SSCs is required by Government to  develop a sector skills agreement between 
employers and education and training providers in thei r sector. As employer-led 
organisations, SSCs are charged with the task of representing employers’ skills needs to 
Government and raising employers’ demand for sk ills. SSCs also represent the interests of 
other stakeholders, e.g. unions. The process of developing skills agreements starts with a 
skills needs assessment. In this assessment, SSCs are required to forecast employment and 
skills needs within their sector . This is achieved by using: 
• the existing quantitative forecasts for the UK  (i.e. ‘Working Futures’), which provide 
cross-sector, consistent and comparable proj ections using national sources of information 
system and bespoke, sector-specific forecasts; 
• qualitative scenarios devel oped with sector employers. 
The sector skills agreement is now recognise d as one of the mechanisms through which 
employer skills needs in the UK are identified and met. 
The strengths of this approach to an ticipating skills needs are as follows: 
• it is grounded in employer consultation; 
 
EN 52   EN • it combines cross-sector, comparable sources  of information based on robust national 
sources of information structured by SIC (standard industrial cl assification) with 
qualitative information gathered fr om sector experts and employers; 
• each SSC is required to follow the same pro cess, thus facilitating interaction with the 
supply side. 
However, forecasts are also used for many other purposes in the UK, including careers 
guidance and advice, with detailed informati on available on-line (s ee: http://www.guidance-
research.org/). 
This detailed and sophisticated forecasting is feas ible because of the subs tantial investment in 
statistical infrastructure, incl uding: national accounts; input/output tables; the annual business 
inquiry; the labour force surv ey; and the population census. 
One outcome of the skills forecasting and su rvey work is the development of national 
occupational standards. These are specified in the form of units aggregated to meet the 
qualification needs of specific occupations, whic h are identified by a parallel process of 
occupational mapping. 
3.1.6.  Issues arising from the r eview of anticipatory tools:  is Europe lagging behind? 
Statistical infrastructure is the key to what is possible. There is a need to invest in more and 
better data across Europe, as well as in individu al Member States. The experience of countries 
with long-standing forecasting experience is being transferred to countries where forecasting is 
being introduced or at an early stage of development. A key issu e at the country level is that, 
while there are common principl es, their application varies. Fo r example, national experiences 
differ in terms of the periodicity and level of detail (spatial, sectors and occupations) of the 
forecasting methods. A wide range  of approaches and techniques have been adopted and are 
being used. Successful forecasting often forms part  of a holistic approach where the forecasts 
sit alongside other complementary surv eys and / or qual itative research. 
Outside Europe, countries have already decided that there is a clearly established case for 
regular anticipation of economic and labour market change in or der to deal with problems of 
restructuring, and to make the most of the opportunities offered by new technologies. The USA 
and China are investing huge sums in such work . Much is already going on in Europe, but with 
the exception of the countries identified as adopting or in troducing holistic approaches, 
activities tend to be piecemeal a nd can be ad hoc. There is an  order of magnitude difference 
compared with countries such as the USA. In 20 05, the latest year for which data are available, 
the US Bureau of Labor Statistics invested almost 6 million dollars in quantitative employment projections. This compares to around 0.25 million euros spent by Cedefop on the only 
equivalent project in Europe. Individual Member States are doi ng such work, but in the US, 
forecasts are also conducted at country-wide level.  This suggests that there is scope for Europe 
to do more in anticipating future skills needs. In  the last three years, Eu rope has already started 
to invest more in skills needs analysis.  
3.2. Mapping and evaluation of matching policies in Europe 
This section considers the use and application of anticipatory methods and associated changes 
in policies and practice. It examines: 
 
EN 53   EN • Changes in policy and practice resulting from th e anticipation and assessment of skill needs. 
• Demand-led systems and matching processes i nvolving employers and social partners.  
The section draws on the availa ble literature and is inform ed by the SYSDEM and Eurydice 
responses. As with section 3.2 above, the SYSDEM  and Eurydice responses are illustrative of 
practices and do not provide a comprehe nsive overview of all activities.  
3.2.1.  Changes in policies and practice resulting fr om anticipation and assessment of skill 
needs 
National and regional policy make rs and education and labour ma rket stakeholders are key 
audiences for anticipatory methods that can be used to inform policy development and 
associated practice (e.g. VET and higher education) . The focus of this section is on anticipation 
/matching processes that have influenced: 
• education and training policies and practice; 
• active labour market policies;  
• migration policy; 
• processes and infrastructure facilitating matching activities.  
Education and training policies and practice  
The SYSDEM and Eurydice responses yielded examples of matching policies influencing 
planning and budgetary decisions, curriculum de velopment, more responsive VET and higher 
education, careers guidance and the developmen t of occupational standards. However, the 
analysis also identified cases where there is a disconnect between anticipatory methods and the 
policy-making process. This latter issue is e xplored before the examples of practice are 
introduced.  
Even where some of the systems for forecasting skill supply and demand are well-developed 
and incorporate quantitative and qualitative me thods, weak cross-linkag es between activities 
(fragmentation) and the absence of any syst ematic use of their outcomes hamper the 
effectiveness of efforts to match labour supply and demand. This is particularly evident where 
the results of various forecasting activities are not fed into the educational policy process in a 
systematic manner107.  
Informing planning and budgetary d ecisions of Education Ministries 
Anticipation results and assessment of skills needs are used by some Ministries of Education to 
inform planning and budgetary d ecisions associated with the po licy-making process. Examples 
from Denmark, Finland and Ireland are given in the Box below.  
Box 3.4: Practices in DK, FI, IE 
                                                 
107 SYSDEM responses. 
 
EN 54   EN In Denmark, labour market forecasts influenc e budgeting for education and training. Short- 
and medium-term projections (2-3 years) gui de the planning and design of education and 
training budgets. Forecasts are also used  (though not systematically) by educational 
establishments to anticipate student intake.  
In Finland, quantitative skill forecasts have been  utilised in drafting the latest Education 
Development Plan, which is updated every four  years. The latest plan (2003-2008) includes 
development measures for each field and level of  education, the main education and research 
policy guidelines and a fram ework for resource allocation. 
In September 2005 the Irish Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment (DETE) 
requested the Expert Group on Future Skills  Needs (EGFSN) to unde rtake research to 
underpin the development of a National Skills St rategy, including identific ation of the skills 
required for Ireland to develop over the peri od to 2020 as a competitive, innovation-driven, 
knowledge-based, participative and inclusiv e economy. In 2006 the Expert Group published 
employment forecasts for the period to 2020 (Current Trends in Occupational Employment 
and Forecasts for 2010 and 2020). The results were  used to inform the preparation of the 
2007 report ‘Tomorrow’s Skills — Towards a National Skills Strategy’. 
Sources: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses 
More responsive VET and higher education provision 
Enhancing the human capital of Europe require s Member States to develop responsive VET 
and higher education approaches to labour market needs. Evidence suggests that the 
engagement of social partners and the use of  quantitative and qualitative anticipation methods 
are helping to make VET and hi gher education more responsive to employer needs. Responses 
from SYSDEM and Eurydice provide evidence of  vocational education and training policies 
and practices intended to address mismatches  in labour supply and demand. Examples from 
Denmark, Italy and Lithuania are given in the Box below.  
Box 3.5: More responsive VET: examples from DK, IT and LT 
The Danish Ministry of Educa tion has established a procedure to systematically measure the 
relevance of VET courses using student employment rates upon VET completion. An 
employment rate of 75% is set as a target and programmes that do not meet this figure are 
required to explain shortfalls. 
In Lithuania the Barometer of Employment Oppor tunities is a short-term  (12-month) forecast 
of skill shortages in occupati ons and is used by th e authorities to help plan vocational 
education and training.  
In Italy, various regions have been carrying out projects for the early identification of 
employment and training needs and have used these to guide the direction and emphasis of 
training courses. These initiatives have been  informed by surveys of employers and other 
stakeholders. Projects have been successfully implemented in the regions of Valle d’Aosta, 
Friuli Venezia Giulia, Sardegna, Liguria and Vene to, as well as in the provinces of Trento, 
                                                 
108 SYSDEM responses. 
 
EN 55   EN Bolzano and Firenze108. 
The ‘Mitenna’ model is used in Finland to ge nerate quantitative proj ections of vocational 
education and training needs (see Box 3.6 below). Th e results of these quantitative forecasts are 
used by various agencies for a range of different  purposes at national an d regional levels, but 
primarily to steer the development of VET and other education and training policies. 
Text Box 3.6: The Mitenna project in Finland 
The Mitenna project (‘Project to Anticipate Quantitative Educational Needs in Vocational 
Education and Training’) was implemented by th e National Board of Education with support 
from the Ministry of Education and the Europ ean Social Fund at the end of the 1990s. The 
forecasting model was established to produce sta tistical and other information necessary for 
anticipating skill needs. Its ou tputs included national forecasts of educational needs, which 
were then analysed for different fields of study and levels of edu cation (initial vocational 
education and in higher education). 
The model is used for anticipating vocationa l training and skills needs nationally and 
regionally. It has been updated and, for exam ple, provides projections on the need for 
vocational training places. Regions produce their own tailored forecasts of educational needs 
based on the nationwide forecast and on region al growth. The model provides an ‘early 
warning system’, as it recognises expanding as well as contracting sect ors, occupations, skill 
demand, technologies, and changes in produc tion methods. The outputs are used by the 
regions in their strategic plan ning processes and by the Ministry  of Education to decide on 
the distribution of licences for the delivery of upper secondary VET. They also inform the 
negotiations between the Ministry  of Education, universities a nd polytechnics when agreeing 
on their educational provision (within the performance-based management system).  
Sources: The Finnish National Board of E ducation (www.oph.fi); SYSDEM and Eurydice 
responses  
Turning to higher education, examples from Ge rmany and Estonia highlight how forecasting 
activities have been used to inform higher education provision. 
 
EN 56   EN Box 3.7: Forecasting to inform higher education  
In Germany, the Perman ent Conference of the Länder  Ministers for Education and Cultural 
Affairs (KMK, Kultusministerkonferenz) has produ ced statistical forecasts  of student numbers 
and university graduates since 1992. These projec tions are updated ever y two years and cover 
the time period to 2020. The approach is base d on a status-quo foreca st for labour supply 
(demographic changes excepted, all parameters relating to propensity to enter university 
education, duration of studies and drop-out rates are kept constant). The projections provide 
important statistics on the number of student s (entrants, students and graduates) from 
universities by Länder , nationality and type of univers ity. They are mainly used for 
administrative purposes by regional authorities ( Länder ). 
In Estonia, annual labour market forecasts examine the number of new jobs created, 
movements between economic sectors and retireme nt ratios. These data are used to produce 
predictions of future labour ma rket needs. The work is led by the Ministry of Economic 
Affairs and Communications, while  the forecasts are primarily used by the Ministry of 
Education and Research to inform fundi ng decisions on higher education and VET. 
Source: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses 
Development or redefinition of nati onal occupation and VET standards 
Forecasting and associated quantitative and qualitative surveys of employers and other 
stakeholders play an important role in defining and redefining occupation al and VET standards. 
Such activities are being carried out in Ital y, where the national system for the permanent 
observation of employment needs (Sistema n azionale per l’osservazione permanente dei 
fabbisogni professionali) has co ntributed to improving occupati onal classifications and their 
descriptive structures. In the UK, one outcome of skills forecasting and survey work is the 
development of national occupational standards related to qualification needs. This link to qualifications is also apparent in Lithuania, wh ere skill needs are evaluated in the course of 
developing VET standards and programmes as well as through sectoral studies and labour 
market forecasts
109. In particular, the development of occupational standards in tripartite 
collaboration and their subsequent linkage to competence-based qualification profiles are 
recognised as a way of making VET responsive to labour market needs (e.g. Hungary, Poland, 
Slovenia)110.  
Most Member States point to the efficiency of  accreditation, assessment and quality assurance 
systems in ongoing cooperation to incorporate th e competence and skill needs of the labour 
market within VET provision111. Here, Member States rely on th e European tools developed as 
part of the Copenhagen process: the Europ ean Credit System for VET (ECVET) and the 
Common Quality Assurance Reference Framework for VET (CQARF). Qualification frameworks and their compatibil ity with the European Qualifi cation Framework (EQF) are also 
often mentioned as important for linking training to labour ma rket requirements
112. 
                                                 
109 The first VET standards were prepared in 1999, and 86 standards had been adopted by 2006. Another 100 
standards are being developed. 
110 Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion paper. 
111 Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion paper. 
112 Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion paper. 
 
EN 57   EN Development or redefinition of higher educat ion standards: Bologna process and European 
tools 
In higher education, efforts to  improve the transparency of qualifications and to support 
mobility have been undertaken as part of the Bo logna Process. This Process aims to create a 
European Higher Education Area (EHEA) that will facilitate the mobility of students, graduates 
and higher education staff, prepare students for th eir future careers and fo r life as act ive citizens 
in democratic societies, and support their pe rsonal development, by offering broad access to 
high-quality higher education, based on democrat ic principles and academic freedom. The 
Process encompasses 46 EU and other European countries113 and seeks to advance reforms 
leading to comparable degrees organised in a three-cycle structure (i.e. bachelor-master-
doctorate). A further aim is to develop quality assurance in accordance with the Standards and 
Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the Europ ean Higher Education Area (ESG). The Process 
also seeks to ensure fair recognition of degrees  and other higher educati on qualifications in the 
EHEA, in accordance with the Council of  Europe/UNESCO Recognition Convention114. The 
recognition of qualifications falls  within the competence of each country. In most cases, this 
means that higher education inst itutions are responsible for the recognition of qualifications for 
the purpose of further study wher eas professional bodies or em ployers are responsible for 
recognition for the purposes of the labour market . Tools that facilitate the recognition of 
qualifications are the European Credit Tr ansfer and Accumulation System (ECTS)115 and the 
Diploma Supplement (DS)116. To help develop good practice and a common understanding of 
recognition, the Council of Europe, UNESC O/CEPES and the European Commission 
coordinate the ENIC and NARIC Networks117. The Networks develop good practice and policy 
Tuning Educational Structures in Europe is a university-driven proj ect with a concrete 
approach to implementing the Bologna process. Five lines of approach  are distinguished:  
1. Generic competences and transversal skills; 2. Subject-specific competences;  3. Role of ECTS as an accumulation system; 4. Approaches to learning, teaching and assessment;  5. Role of quality enhancemen t in the educational process 
The surveys of skills needs and skills achievement have been used to help determine the weak 
and strong points that could help to refine po licy. The Tuning project u nderlines the need for 
consultation and constant revision of information on the adequacy of curric ula and skills needs. 
                                                
 
113 Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan , Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, 
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,  former Yugoslav Repub lic of Macedonia, France, 
Georgia, Germany, Greece, Holy See,  Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy,  Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, 
Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian 
Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Sp ain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United 
Kingdom. 
114 http://www.ond.vlaanderen.be/hogeronderwijs/bologna/documents/LRC/Lisbon_for_pedestrians.pdf 
115 http://ec.europa.eu./education/programmes/socrates/ects/index_en.html 
116 http://ec.europa.eu/education/policies/rec_qual/recognition/diploma_en.html 
117 http://www.enic-naric.net/ 
 
EN 58   EN It is a useful tool to help universities defi ne and redefine qualifica tions, thus facilitating 
mobility and transparency on the labour market. 
Careers guidance  
Labour market information (surveys and forecasts) provide an important resource for education 
policy developers. It is also im portant for careers guidance pract itioners and individuals using 
such services. The examples in the preceding sections have focused on how labour market 
information has helped in planning edu cation and training provision and identifying 
opportunities for students on completion of their st udies. Occupational proj ections also have a 
key role to play in helping individuals ma ke informed career decisions. In Denmark, for 
example, regional and national short-term forecasts of labour demand by sectors and 
occupations are essential tools for job centre sta ff in guiding jobseekers’ career choices. Similar 
examples can also be found in Luxe mbourg and Ireland (see Box 3.8 below).  
Box 3.8: The use of anticipatory meth ods in informing careers guidance  
In Denmark, the National Labour Market Aut hority and the four Da nish labour market 
regions produce detailed, short-term asse ssments of labour demand by sectors and 
occupations, and associated mismatches, on a six-monthly basis. Th e resulting analyses 
provide day-to-day careers counselling and gu idance tools for PES staff working with the 
unemployed.  In Luxembourg, a regular employer survey (approx. 200 businesses) carried out by three business organisations (the Business Federati on of Luxembourg — FEDIL, the Luxembourg 
Bankers’ Association and the Chamber of Commer ce) is used to inform policy development 
and career planning. Young people use the results fr om this survey to help inform career 
choices.  In Ireland, the medium-term projections for em ployment classified by sector and occupation 
were initially designed for the development of medium-term trai ning policies. The results are 
now being used as a careers guidance tool because they can be easily accessed via the 
internet. 
Source: SYSDEM responses  
Looking outside Europe, the American tools ‘O *Net’ and ‘CareerOneSt op’ are interesting 
examples of the use of labour market in formation to inform career choices.  
Text Box 3.9: The American practice: O*Net and CareerOneStop 
The O*NET database (http://on line.onetcenter.org), developed by the US Department of 
Labor, is an online database pr oviding occupational in formation accessible in different ways. 
Users can access very detailed occupational in formation: a definition, tasks, knowledge, 
skills, abilities, work activities, work context,  job zone, work styles, and finally wages and 
employment trends, both at national USA level,  and on a state-by-state basis. For example, 
looking up Business teachers or postsecondary teachers  (SOC code 25-1011.00) yields the 
following results: 
 
EN 59   EN Median wages (2007) $64 900 annual 
Employment (2006) 1 672 000 employees Projected growth (2006-2016) Much grea ter than average (21% or higher) 
Projected need (2006-2016) 662 000 additional employees The website CareerOneStop (http://www.careeronest op.org/) is related to O*NET. It allows 
people to evaluate their skill profiles. While CareerOne Stop is a useful tool with a solid 
scientific basis, it has its critics. The appr oach is based on individu als’ own perception of 
skill levels and is not moderated by professional guidance.  
 
Though the methodology is different, the EurOccupations  project can be cons idered a fi rst step 
towards a European description of occupational skill needs (see Box 3.10 below). The outputs from the EurOccupations project could be disseminated and used through existing portals, e.g. 
EURES, the European Employment Service and PLOTEUS (Portal on Learning Opportunities 
Throughout the European Space).  
Box 3.10: Towards a European database on occupations?  
The EurOccupations project (www.euroccupa tions.org), funded by the Socio-economic 
Sciences and Humanities programme under Sixth Framework Programme of the European Union up to May 2009, is managed by the Erasmu s University of Rotterdam. EurOccupations 
aims to build a publicly available occupati onal database, including information on 
approximately 1 500 occupations in eight Euro pean countries (Belgium, France, Germany, 
Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the UK). For a selection of 150 occupations, the 
database also includes task descriptions, competences, educa tion requirements, qualifications 
and ‘on-the-job-training’ for each of the eight par ticipating countries. It th us offers an insight 
into the comparability of occupational struct ures and occupational content across Europe. 
Active labour market policies  
Forecasting activities allow Public Employment Serv ices (PES) to develop anticipatory training 
provision. The results of an annual employer survey carried out by the PES are an important 
tool for the labour market author ities in Latvia. They  inform the planning and organisation of 
PES activities and professiona l training for the unemployed118. In Sweden, the labour market 
surveys performed by the Swedish Labour Market Authority (AMS, Var finns jobben), and Statistics Sweden (SCB arbetkraftbarometer) c onstitute an efficient tool for planning and 
providing training as part of Sw eden’s active labour ma rket policy. The Job Vacancy Survey by 
the German Federal Labour Agency is widely used to identify sectoral and occupational 
changes in labour demand. The results provide in formation for the Federal Labour Agency, for 
example on the impact of labour market policies.  
                                                
 
118 SYSDEM responses. 
 
EN 60   EN A number of Member States have also re-org anised or re-oriented their public employment 
services in an effort to matc h labour supply and demand. Thes e efforts have resulted in the 
creation of a National Continuous Labour Exchange  (Borsa Continua Nazi onale del Lavoro) in 
Italy and the establishment of a network of Centres for Employment Promotion in Greece. 
Text Box 3.11: Sharing information be tween public employment services 
National Continuous Labour Exchange (Borsa  Continua Nazionale del Lavoro), Italy 
The National Continuous Labour Exchange was launched in 2003 and has been operational 
since 2005. The Exchange is a network connecti ng public and private employment services, 
registered employers and job-seekers. Employe rs can post vacancies and job-seekers can post 
their applications and CVs on the network. Th e network has regional nodes. Currently, 18 
regions (out of 21) are linked to  the network. It has been found to  increase the efficiency and 
transparency of the matching process, and to favour geographical mobility. 
Centres for Employment Promotion (KPE), Greece In Greece, the implementation of a policy emphasising the matching of skills demand and 
supply has led to the establishment of a mo dern network of Centres for Employment 
Promotion (KPE) and the re-organisation of  the public employment service (OAED). 
Currently, the Centres for Employment Prom otion aim to incorporate three basic PES 
functions (a) placement and c ounselling services; (b ) payment of unemployment benefits; and 
(c) management of labour market programmes.  
Source: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses  
Immigration policies 
Some countries and regions have used the re sults of quantitative a nd/or qualitative skill 
assessments to re-adjust their immigration polic ies. For example, the Flemish government has 
introduced a transitional arrangement to match its immigration policy with local labour and 
skill shortages119. This arrangement is based on a quantita tive analysis of hard-to-fill vacancies 
and additional information from an employer surv ey. In practice, this means that between 2006 
and 2009 migration from the new Me mber States will be managed so that migrants can apply 
for ‘hard to fill’ vacancies.  
In September 2008, the British government announced a new ‘point s-based’ immigration 
system whereby workers from outside the EU are only allowed to take up j obs in skill-shortage 
occupations. The list includes sk illed nurses and consultants, e ngineering jobs, and maths and 
English teachers. Currently the UK Migration A dvisory Committee does not use projections as 
a direct input into its thinking, mainly because they are not detailed enough, but it is planning to 
explore this further in future work. 
Processes and infrastructure to facilitate matching 
In order to unify forecasting methods and prac tices and make use of the results in a more 
systematic manner, several Member States have implemented structures such as multi-
                                                 
119 SYSDEM response. 
 
EN 61   EN stakeholder steering committees or  appointed specific institutes  to oversee development work 
in a more coherent manner. Recent examples of  such practice can be found, for example, in 
Germany, Greece, Italy, Finland, Ireland and Latvia. In the UK, foresight activities have been 
linked to science and technological developments . These use scenario development methods to 
harness insights from a multidisciplinary range of experts.  
Text Box 3.12: Developing infrastructure 
Activities for the early identification of skill needs are being re-organised in Germany by 
the Federal Ministry for Education and Re search (BMBF), the Federal Institute for 
Vocational Training (BiBB) and the Institu te for Employment Research (IAB). The 
approach is based on the experience of FreQue Nz, the network for the early identification 
of skill needs managed by the Fraunhofe r-Institut für Arbeitswissenschaft und 
Organisation (Fraunhofer Inst itute for labour science and organisation) since 1999. The 
new approach is intended to integrate exis ting data sources and de velop methods for long-
term forecasts of skill needs that go be yond the models hitherto recommended by the 
Permanent Conference of the Länder  Ministers for Education and Cultural Affairs 
(Kultusministerkonferenz). 
In Finland, a range of structures have been  put in place to utilise the results of both 
quantitative and qualitative forecasting activitie s in a more coherent manner, including: 
The establishment of a Foresi ght Network, which functions as  a coordination network and 
discussion forum for the various ministries engaged in forecasting. The Network’s tasks 
are to coordinate forecasting activities, im prove forecasting skills and enhance interaction 
between central, regional and local administrations. It also monitors the use of anticipation results in decision-making. The network is currently led by the Mi nistry of Education. 
The operation of 34 tripartite National Education and Training  Committees. The task of the 
Committees is to follow, evaluate, anticipate and analyse the development of skills needed in the labour market, to make suggestions fo r the qualitative and qua ntitative development 
of training, to define the core  curriculum and qualification requirements and to highlight 
challenges in their sector. Recently, the Minist ry of Education togeth er with the National 
Board of Education has set up a specialist co ordination group for the anticipation of skills 
and training needs. Its task is to reconc ile and develop anticipation work done by the 
sector-specific National Edu cation and Training Committees. 
The National Board of Education coordinates the regional forecasting activities regarding 
labour and educational needs carried out by the Regional Co uncils and their partners. 
In Greece, the establishment of a national system for li nking vocational education and 
training with employment (ESSEEKA) ensures a holistic approach to  the assessment of 
labour supply and demand — through better definition of roles and responsibilities, enhanced provision for collaboration and coope ration between institutional agents, and the 
inclusion of stakeholders in this process. The system provides a forum for concerted action 
that is expected to contribute to defining future skill requirements more rapidly and 
 
EN 62   EN effectively and to making the Greek education and training sy stem more responsive to the 
challenges faced120. ESSEEKA was established by law in 2003 and aims to match VET 
provision with labour market needs by better defining and a ssessing the links between the 
two and developing them within an integrated framework121. 
Sources: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses  
3.2.2.  Matching processes involving employers and social partners 
Employers have a vested interest in the quality a nd standard of education and the availability of 
labour. Training costs for new staff depend on the extent to which educational systems provide 
qualifications that prepare workers to perform more or less immediately without any further 
training. Evidence from the literature122 and SYSDEM/Eurydice res ponses suggests that 
employers (and social partners) are increasingly  involved in the planning and implementation 
of education and labour market policy, mainly through the involvement of their representative 
organisations (employers’ organisations and conf ederations at national, sectoral and local 
levels) in: 
• tripartite councils  on labour, education and training matte rs at national, regional and local 
levels; 
• consultation procedures for educatio n-related legislation and policies; 
• tripartite sector committees; 
• collective bargaining at cross-sectoral , sectoral, regional and local levels. 
As a result of increased employer involveme nt in tripartite councils concerning labour, 
education and training matters, they are also bette r placed to contribute to and make use of the 
various different forecasting methodologies employed by nationa l education, training and 
labour market authorities. Examples of the i nvolvement of employers in such tripartite 
structures can be found in Denmark and Irela nd, among others. There are also examples 
illustrating the involvement of employers in the implementation of matching policies, including 
the German National Training Pact and the Fren ch agreement with social partners on " Gestion 
Prévisionnelle des Emplois et des Competences  (GPEC)". These are illustrated below in Box 
3.15. 
Box 3.15: The increasing involvement of employers 
In Denmark, six Regional Growth Fora were  created as part of the regional and local 
government reform at the beginning of 2007. The fora bring together re presentatives of the 
business community, knowledge and educational establishments, labour market stakeholders 
as well as local and re gional authorities — acto rs with first-hand knowledge of the challenges 
                                                 
120 Survey of national Eurydice units for New Skills for New Jobs, 2008. 
121 Note: Some of the activities under the system are not yet operational. 
122 For example, Winterton, J. (2006), Social dialogue and vocational training in Europe. Journal of 
European Industrial Training; Heideman, W. (2002), ‘Current developments within social dialogue in 
selected European countr ies’ in Lifelong Learning, Hans Böck ler Stiftung; CEDEFOP survey on the 
nature and extent of social dialogue around VET. 
 
EN 63   EN of the business community and the regional cond itions for growth. One task of the regional 
fora is to strengthen the ties between regional educational institutions and regional employers 
so as to boost the development of human re sources and the competitiveness of regional 
companies. 
During their first year of operation, the regiona l growth fora produced regional development 
plans analysing the challenges of each region and outlining a number of activities to be 
encouraged in order to stimulate growth and employment. Part of this work analysed the 
future skills needs and edu cation systems of each region. 
The Expert Group on Future Sk ills Needs (EGFSN) was estab lished in Ireland in 1997 in 
response to increasing concerns about labour  and skills shortages in Ireland. The Group 
comprises representatives of employers, em ployees, the education sector, government 
departments and state agencies. The Group acts as the central national resource on skills and 
labour supply for the enterprise sector. The Gr oup conducts systematic and detailed analyses 
to: 
• Advise Government on skills and labour s upply issues for the enterprise sector; 
• Advise Government on projected requirement s and make recommendations on the actions 
required to address identified needs; 
• Regularly follow up these recommendations w ith the bodies responsible for implementing 
them, to facilitate and assess progress in implementation; 
• Consider strategic issues in developing part nerships between business and the education 
and continuous training sectors for m eeting the skills needs of business. 
National Training Pact (Nationaler Pakt fü r Ausbildung und Fachkräftenachwuchs), Germany 
In 2004 the main labour market actors in Ge rmany signed a national training pact. In the 
agreement, the employers agreed to offer 30 000 additional dual training places every year 
until 2006 and an additional 25 000 initial qualification places. Th e Pact has been extended to 
2010 and the employers’ associations agreed to create 60 000 additiona l training places each 
year and 40 000 initial qua lification places per year. 
Aided by growing labour demand, the Pact has in creased the number of dual training places 
(by nine percent in 2007) and helped integrat e disadvantaged young people within the labour 
market. Two thirds of the young people who obta ined initial qualificat ions found permanent 
training places. 
The Pact has also had wider implications, as the employer’s associations have encouraged 
more companies to provide dual training and mo tivated companies to extend their training. 
Strong efforts have also been made to mo tivate non-German employers in Germany to 
provide dual training. 
In France, GPEC (Prospective Management of Jobs and Skills — Gestio n Prévisionnelle des 
                                                                                                                                                           
123 OREFs were established by the State and Regional Authorities in 1993 while OPMQs were set up in 
20004 and are closely linked to the training insurance funds (OPCA). 
 
EN 64   EN Emplois et des Competences) is both a lega l obligation (through the 2005 Social Cohesion 
Act) and a tool for enterprise development. A GPEC is an agreement be tween social partners 
at enterprise level to anticipate the impact of external and internal changes and take 
appropriate action to minimise their effect  on the company. Around 205 agreements have 
been signed since the initiative was launched and forecasting is at the heart of these activities. 
Regional Observatories of Employment and Tr aining (OREFs) and Sectoral Observatories 
(OPMQs) are other data sour ces utilised by French empl oyers (and social partners)123. The 
studies carried out by the Observatories help  sectoral social part ners to decide on 
employment and training policies. Small and medium-sized companies, which have no GPEC 
obligations, also make use of these studies in order to anticipate short- and medium-term skill 
needs and labour supply. 
Source: Eurydice responses  
European employers, together with the unions, ha ve developed a wide ra nge of strategies to 
deal with sector-specific skill gaps and shortages. In the UK, the Skills for Business network aims to boost national productivity  and profitability by  identifying and tackling skills gaps and 
shortages on a sector-by-sector basis. The Sk ills for Business network comprises 25 Sector 
Skills Councils (SSCs)
124, which are employer-led, independen t organisations established to 
improve learning supply, including via appr enticeships, higher ed ucation and National 
Occupational Standards (NOS), for each of the sectors covered. The Canadian sector councils 
also have a prospective dimension, since they try to find solutions to future challenges by 
building consensus among employers, employees, education and training providers and other 
key stakeholders (see Box 3.15). Lately, similar sectoral councils have been piloted in the 
Czech Republic with support from the European Social Fund125. They are country-level 
partnerships, with sector-orien ted structures consisting of ex perts appointed by employers and 
their associations in cl ose cooperation with the ce ntral administrative authorities. The councils 
are expected to have a considerable impact on the overall development and definition of jobs 
and skills in the Czech Republic in the future and in helping to  anticipate the need for new 
competences and skills. 
Particularly in the UK, educational reforms are being implemented to move away from a 
government-led, centrally planned a pproach to a flexible system intrinsically responsive to the 
needs of employers and individuals. However, th is does not mean that there is no need to 
anticipate the future, but simply that this sh ould be done by many actors, not just central 
government.  
Box 3.15: The UK Leitch review: promoting a demand-led system 
In June 2007 the UK Government published ‘W orld Class Skills’, setting out how the 
Government will create a world-class skill s base by 2020. The document was endorsed by the 
Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Secretar ies of State for Innovation, Universities and 
Skills; Children, Schools and Families; Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform; and Work and Pensions. A central element in the new approach is to move to a demand-driven 
                                                 
124 Further information on Sector Skills Councils and S ector Skills Agreements is given in Box 3.4 on the 
UK’s approach to anticipating skill needs. 
125 Eurydice response. 
 
EN 65   EN skills system, in which the provision available responds to the needs of individuals and is 
delivered through a market system. To achieve  this, the Government is, for example, 
directing funding increasingly through ‘demand- led’ routes, for example, by expanding the 
Train to Gain initiative and developing Skills Accounts. 
The Train to Gain brokerage system is the fulcrum of the UK’s move to a demand-driven 
skills system. It was set up to ensure that tr aining responds to the needs of employers by 
allocating funding according to their market choices. 
Employers can contact a Train to Gain broke r, who puts together a tailored package of 
support to meet their needs, identifying the most suitable provision, and matching it with 
available Government funding. Providers then respond by developing training to meet market 
demand. The brokerage service was launched nationally in August 2006. Since then, 97 000 
employers have benefited, leading to 490 000 le arner ‘starts’ with almost 213 000 employees 
gaining a Level 2 qualification to date. Funding  for Train to Gain will increase from £520 
million in 2007-2008 to over £1 billion by  2010-2011. The Government’s plans for 
expanding and developing the Train to Gain servi ce were set out in Train to Gain: a Plan for 
Growth, published in January 2008. 
Authorities are also working to make it easi er for employers to have their own training 
programmes nationally recognised and accredite d. More than 30 employers have had their 
training accredited and a furt her four employers, including Network Rail and FlyBe, have 
been accredited as awarding bodies in their ow n right. Further information about Sector 
Skills Councils and Sector Skills Agreements is found in Box 3.4 on the UK’s approach to 
anticipating skill needs.  
Source: Eurydice response 
Box 3.15: The Canadian Sector Councils 
Conscious of the need for cooperation on the part of all players in the labour market to improve 
its competitiveness and efficiency, the Canadian  authorities have put in place Sector Councils 
covering almost thirty sectors or cross-sect oral groups of the Canadian economy. Sector 
Councils are permanent, consensus-building organisations comprising business, labour, 
education and other key stakeholder groups. Their objectives are to improve the quality of the 
Canadian labour force and to help firms to be more flexible in meeting changing competitive 
demands by:  
- examining current and projected human re source challenges (incl uding how training is 
viewed, developed and delivered  to a diverse workforce);  
- identifying solutions, and 
- coordinating and implementing strategies, from  the development of occupational standards 
and certification programmes to new career information products. 
Core activities to meet these objectives includ e developing national occ upational standards and 
certification programmes, identifying and prepar ing new entrants in the labour market, and 
improving career and occupational information. Sector  Councils address a wi de range of issues 
related to technological change, quality standa rds, planning, and human resource development. 
 
EN 66   EN They do not expect to find a single  approach to address all the potential issues for all sectors of 
the economy — the demands are far too varied. Instead, Canada’s Sector Councils focus on 
what works for their sector. They have implemented programmes as diverse as the sectors 
themselves.  
3.2.3.  Issues arising from the r eview of matching policies  
Identification of mismatches be tween labour supply and demand is  important to policy makers 
as they can, potentially, be very costly to the economy by restricting productivity growth 
(especially when they occur in  key sectors of the economy). 
While in some countries the results of forecasts  appear to be more widely disseminated and 
used (e.g. Finland, France, Ireland, Netherlands, UK) , they appear to be under-utilised in some 
Member States126. In brief, this overview provides examples that illustrate the direct 
contribution of anticipation results to policy. But there is scope for better utilising forecasting 
results.  
For forecasts to be of value, policy makers and other key stakeholders need accessible data that 
can be interpreted and applied to  their current circumstances.  
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EN 72   EN 5. ANNEXES 
ANNEX 1 — Table 3.3: Forecasting activities in European countries — nature, purpose 
and scope 
COUNTRY  NATURE OF 
ACTIVITIES  PURPOSE  SCOPE (SPATIAL, 
SECTORAL, OCCUPATIONAL, EDUCATIONAL LEVEL)  
Austria Quantitative 
model-based medium-term projections of labour demand To provide a basis for 
measures to improve the matching of labour market needs and future skill supply National and regional 
forecasts of labour demand by sector, occupation and skill levels 
Austria Micro-prognosis: 
employment and unemployment outlook for Austria until 2011 To describe the 
development of employment and unemployment in Austria National and regional 
level, sectoral 
Austria AMS skills 
barometer To observe skill demands 
for individual occupations at micro level  Regional level, all sectors  
Cyprus Employment 
forecasts for the economy of Cyprus To forecast employment 
levels and percentage changes for the economy as a whole, sectors and occupations.  National sectoral and 
occupational forecasts. Sectoral forecasts are made for three broad areas (primary, secondary and tertiary), then for 17 main sectors and 43 selected, finer, sectors. Occupational categories cover three broad areas (lower, middle and higher occupations), with further detailed information on 10 main categories and on 27 selected occupations 
Czech Republic Quantitative 
manpower requirement (supply and demand) model of To forecast future skill 
needs and early identification of skill shortages National forecast 
disaggregated by 27 educational and 32 occupational clusters  
 
EN 73   EN the Czech labour 
market  
Denmark  Quantitative 
forecasts of flows through the educational system, supply of labour by education, and future imbalances on the labour market.  The Statistics and 
Analysis Unit at the Ministry of Education produces basic statistical data for the educational system as a whole and a number of quantitative forecasts on education and the labour market.  National, some regional 
forecasts. Divided by forms of education.  
Denmark  Employment 
forecasts by educational levels  Medium and long-term 
quantitative assessments of labour supply and demand, by educational attainment National and regional 
forecasts for main educational groups 
Denmark  Educational 
forecasts  The forecasts are intended 
to feed into the policy debate about future imbalances on the labour market and the relevant policies to be applied. National and regional 
quantitative forecasts disaggregated by educational attainment  
Estonia Regular forecast of 
labour market needs To predict employment 
levels as well as the need for additional labour National, sectoral and 
occupational (34 sectors and 5 occupational groups) 
Finland  Quantitative long- 
and medium-term forecasts To predict employment 
structure, vocational structure and education demands up to 2030. The Ministry of Labour is to draft a long-term forecast for output and employment (PTS) up to 2030 National and regional 
(provincial) forecast. Sectoral dimension too (12 main sectors, 51 subsectors). Also forecast with an education / vocational structure  
France  GPEC (Gestion 
Prévisionnelle des Emplois et des Competences — Prospective Management of Jobs and Skills)  GPEC is both a legal 
obligation (through the 2005 Social Cohesion Act) and a tool for enterprise development. It involves an agreement between the social partners at enterprise level Sectoral, spatial 
 
EN 74   EN to anticipate change 
(internal / external). The main purpose is to determine action to be taken for the next 3 or 5 years 
France  ‘Jobs in 2015’  Occupational forecasts, 
taking into account supply and demand (creation and replacement) National forecast with an 
occupational focus (80 occupational groups)  
France  Forecasting job 
and training needs for 2015 Analysis to evaluate 
recruitment needs linked to each degree level and whether it corresponds to the forecasts provided by 
the Ministry of Education 
on student numbers. The result is a description of the academic profile needed (in terms of sector and level) in each economic field National sectoral forecast  
Germany  Forecast of the 
number of pupils and school leavers 2005 – 2020  Statistical forecast of the 
number of pupils and school leavers Number of pupils and 
school leavers by type of school and regions (Länder ) 
Germany 
127  Forecast of 
university entrants, students and graduates up to 2020 Statistical forecast of the 
number of students and university graduates up to 2020 Entrants, students and 
graduates of universities by Länder , nationality and 
type of university 
Germany Long-term 
projection of labour supply  Projection to 2050 with a 
complementary behavioural study comparing East and West Germany  Supply 
                                                 
127 The information provided focuses on supply forecasts. Cedefop’s Towards European skill need forecasting (2007) 
finds that demand-side forecasts are linked to th e supply-side forecasts presented in the table.  
 
EN 75   EN Ireland FAS/ESRI 
(Economic and Social Research Council) Manpower Forecasting Studies (12 published between 1991 and 2007) To forecast employment 
by sector and occupation  National, regional, sectoral 
and occupational. Level of detail varies, though typically 20 sectoral categories, over 40 occupational groups and 5 broad educational levels.  
Ireland Current Trends in 
Occupational Employment and Forecasts for 2010 and 2020 (published by ESRI in 2006) To provide employment 
forecasts for the period up to 2020 National, all sectors  
Italy National System 
for the permanent observation of employment needs (Sistema nazionale per l’osservazione permanente dei fabbisogni professionali). Analysis and forecasting 
of employment needs National and regional 
forecast, sectoral and occupational dimensions  
Latvia  Information note 
on estimates of labour force demand and supply match in the medium term To estimate labour 
demand and supply in the medium term, to explore possible problems in the labour market and to develop possible solutions National  
Lithuania Labour market 
forecasts by occupational group To forecast labour market 
needs National, regional and 
occupational 
Lithuania Sectoral 
employment 
forecasts  Assessment of 
employment dynamics in 
individual economic sectors over a 5-year horizon National, sectoral  
Lithuania Development and 
application of medium-term (5-year) forecasting Development of medium-
term forecasting methodology for skills/qualifications National  
 
EN 76   EN methodology for 
skills/qualifications demand on the labour market. demand on the labour 
market. 
Netherlands  The labour market 
by education and occupation to 2012 (periodic report) Current and future labour 
market situation by occupation, sector and education level 104 types of education and 
127 occupational groups at regional level across all economic sectors  
Netherlands Employment, 
vacancy and 
unemployment forecasts Current and future labour 
market mismatches Various sectors and 
occupations 
Norway  Labour market 
projections to 2025 Macroeconomic 
projections for the supply and demand of different types of labour National forecast covering 
20 sectors. Focus on the gaps between supply and demand for 27 educational groups, including 19 groups at university level  
Poland Labour Demand 
Forecasting System (SPPP) To create system / 
supporting database to generate labour demand forecasts (national and regional) by qualification levels National and regional 
forecast, different qualification levels  
Poland Forecast of the 
number of employed persons and job offers in the province of Masovia To analyse and provide 
forecasts for the labour market in the province of Masovia  Regional 
Poland Forecast of the 
number of employed persons and job offers in the province of Łódź To analyse and provide 
forecasts for the labour market in the province of Łódź  Regional 
Romania Anticipating/ 
forecasting vocational education and training needs  To help implement the 
Local and Regional Vocational Education and Training Plans through forecasting of skills demand and through Regional 
 
EN 77   EN multi-stakeholder 
cooperation at local and regional level. 
Romania Forecasting the 
demand for skills at national level and elaboration of occupational profiles for 150 occupations To map the current 
demand for skills at national level and to highlight changes in occupation profiles. Also to produce a method to serve as a methodological reference for the future, thus enabling the entire exercise to be undertaken on a more regular basis  National and occupational 
Slovenia  Forecast of 
economic trends To provide a basis for 
economic policy planning and preparation of national budgets  National  
Sweden  Trends and 
forecasts  To provide an overview of 
demographic developments and education and labour market trends through detailed projections of labour supply and demand and the mismatch between them 50 educational categories, 
40 industry sectors; gender and age dimensions 
Sweden  Education and 
work Assessment of the 
potential mismatches between the supply and demand for education by educational groups Not specified  
UK  Working Futures 
2004-2014 To provide sectoral and 
spatial projections of labour market needs over a ten-year horizon for broad occupational categories. 
This is the main officially 
funded set of projections, but many others are produced at both national 67 sectors, 47 local 
Learning and Skills Council areas, plus all counties, regions and home countries. The occupational analysis covers nine broad 
categories such as 
professional occupations, sales and customer service occupations, etc. 
 
EN 78   EN and sub-national level. 
Source: SYSDEM responses 
 
EN 79   EN ANNEX 2 — Table 3.4: National surveys id entified in the SYSDEM responses  
COUNTRY  ACTIVITY  RESPONSIBLE 
INSTITUTION PURPOSE  SUPPLY / 
DEMAND ORIENTATIONSCOPE (SPATIAL, 
SECTORAL OR OCCUPATIONAL)  
Hungary Quarterly survey of 
human resource management PES To support 
operations of the PES and its local offices Supply-demand 
orientation National 
Italy  Excelsior Survey Ministry of Labour 
and Social Affairs, ISFOL, and the Chambers of Commerce 
Association 
(Unioncamere)  Short-term 
employment forecasting Demand 
orientation  National, regional and 
local (103 provinces). Also disaggregated by profession and sector, contractual arrangement, 
education level, etc. 
Latvia Annual employer 
survey on LM trends PES To identify skill 
shortages, employer needs and readiness to be involved in PES activities Demand National 
 
EN 80   EN Luxembourg Qualifications of 
tomorrow  Business Federation 
of Luxembourg (FEDIL), the Luxembourg Bankers’ Association and the Chamber of Commerce Not specified  Supply and 
demand  Information and 
communication needs; skills needed in the industrial sector 
Malta Business Perceptions 
Survey Central Bank of 
Malta Employers’ 
business expectations, including their need for human resources, for the next quarter Demand 
orientation  National, no information 
provided on sectors or occupations  
Netherlands  Labour supply and 
demand panel  Institute of labour 
Studies (OSA) To collect and 
maintain data on the (potential) labour force in the Netherlands Supply and 
demand  Survey of labour supply 
and demand. Includes questions on workforce education and training as well as the demand for skills  
Netherlands  Nationale Enquête 
Arbeidsomstandigheden (National Survey of Working Conditions) TNO (research 
institute), Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (SZW) This survey 
provides structured, periodic, and consistent data on the composition of employment, ‘Snapshot’ of 
current situation — early identification / monitoring of the composition of All sectors, all types of 
work 
 
EN 81   EN working conditions 
and occupational risks  employment, 
occupational problems (mismatches between supply and demand)  
Norway  Enterprise Survey  Norwegian Labour 
and Welfare Organisation (NAV) Survey of 
recruitment problems and labour needs over the next year Labour demand  National survey of 
labour market needs and recruitment issues, data presented at county level with estimates for 86 occupations 
Sweden  Labour market 
tendency survey  Statistics Sweden, 
Statistika Centralbyrå (SCB) To identify the 
recruitment situation, the share 
of employers with 
vacancies, and the demand for labour with a particular educational background Demand 
orientation  70 educational and 
training categories of which 56 are HE 
programmes  
Turkey Monthly labour force 
survey Statistical office 
(Turkstat) To produce timely 
labour market data Supply and 
demand orientation  National/regional (NUTS 
2) levels; all sectors 
 
EN 82   EN UK  National Employer 
Skills Survey (NESS)  Commissioned by 
the Learning & Skills Council (LSC), the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (DIUS) and the Sector Skills 
Development 
Agency — the actual survey was carried out by a private-sector company  Main aim is to 
provide the key government agencies involved with robust and reliable information from employers on skills shortages and gaps and workforce 
development that 
can be used as a common basis for policy development and assessing the impact of skills initiatives  Labour demand 
orientation  79 000 employers 
interviewed across all sectors across public and private ownership. NESS only concerns England, though similar surveys are being conducted in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland  
 
 
EN 83   EN ANNEX 3 — Table 3.5: Other approaches — s ectoral, regional and qualitative approac hes identified in SYSDEM responses 
COUNTRY  ACTIVITY  RESPONSIBLE 
INSTITUTION PURPOSE  
Austria Support ProWienII — 
Surveys and Delphi-style methods Regional AMS (PES); 
consulting company To provide useful sectoral and regional 
information on labour and skill demand  
Belgium Occupational profiles Social partners To develop occupational profiles for the whole 
economy  
Belgium Analysis of hard-to-fill 
vacancies (‘knelpuntberoepen’) Public Employment Service (i.e. 
VDAB in Flanders, FOREM for the Walloon region) Analysis and overview of the occupations with 
hard-to-fill vacancies 
Czech Republic Sectoral qualitative 
studies National Training Fund — 
National Observatory of Employment and Training and relevant consultancy companies To provide in-depth insight into ongoing 
trends in individual se ctors and explore the 
impact of skills-based technologies on labour demand 
Denmark  Study of future 
imbalances on the public labour market by the Ministry of Finance  Ministry of Finance  Due to th e rapid expansion of the Danish 
welfare state in the 1960s and 1970s, there is a remarkably skewed age distribution among public employees. This poses a major challenge for recruitmen t in the coming years, 
when a large number of public employees will retire. The report identi fied the most severe 
problems among nurses and teachers  
 
EN 84   EN Denmark  Project Kvalinord Kompetencecentre.dk A sp ecial project focusing on methods to 
assess future regional imbalances for unskilled and skilled labour. Th e project included 
detailed qualitative and quantitative studies of 
present and future demand for competences within a number of s ectors (textile industry, 
retail trade, etc.) in Northern Jutland 
Estonia Sector studies on 
future needs of the 
labour market (e.g.: 
wood and furniture; metal, engineering and appliances; IT and telecommunications) Most of the sector studies have 
been commissioned by Innove 
— The Foundation for Lifelong 
Learning Development To provide some additional information on 
labour market demand in specific sectors — 
the studies supplement information gathered 
through regular forecasts of labour market needs (see above) 
Estonia Ad-hoc regional 
studies on labour market needs Not specified To provide regional assessments of labour 
market needs 
Estonia Graduates registered as 
unemployed  Labour Market Board To provide sy stematic information about the 
number of graduates registered as unemployed by school and field of study 
Finland  Qualitative long- and 
medium-term forecasts Ministry of Education, National 
Board of Education, labour market organisations and research institutes To predict developments in the demand for 
skills in working life 
 
EN 85   EN Finland  Forecasting provincial 
labour force demand Ministry of Employment and the 
Economy, Employment and Economic Development Centres, companies and research institutes The objective of the forecast in each labour 
force area and business centre area is to recognise as early as possible both expanding 
and contracting sector s, occupations, skill 
demand, technologies and also changes in production methods 
France  Regional Observatories 
of Employment and Training (OREFs) and 
Sectoral Observatories 
(OPMQs) OREFs were established by the 
state and regional authorities in 
1993, while OPMQs have been 
closely linked with the Branch 
Training Insurance Funds (OPCAs) since 2004 Regional and Sectoral Observatories have been 
set up to develop forecasting studies through a comprehensive analysis of the field concerned 
(in a region or sector) in terms of skills and 
jobs 
Hungary Collection of jobs 
requested by the unemployed PES Provision of data to  employers about jobs 
demanded 
Hungary Quarterly survey of 
human resource management PES To support operations of the PES and its local 
offices 
Ireland Future Requirement 
for High-Level Skills in the ICT Sector Expert Group on Future Skill 
Needs (EGFSN) The aim of the report is to determine the future 
requirement for high-level ICT skills in the ICT sector in Ireland and identify actions needed to ensure that the supply of these skills 
is sufficient — in term s of quantity, quality 
and diversity  
 
EN 86   EN Ireland The Future Skills and 
Research Needs of the International Financial Services Industry  Expert Group on Future Skill 
Needs (EGFSN) To outline Ireland’s curre nt and future skills 
requirements in relation to the international financial services indu stry. The report also 
identifies the need to  enhance provision of 
these skills and the im portance of improving 
Ireland’s research capacity in the area of financial services 
Ireland Other sector-specific 
studies Expert Group on Future Skill 
Needs (EGFSN) To provide an assessment of skill needs in 
specific sectors, e.g. medical devices, digital 
media, SME management 
Latvia Research on career 
plans of final-year school pupils Hansabanka, PES To gather info rmation about career plans of 
pupils in the final year of schooling, identify the most popular professions, determine the factors affecting car eer choice, identify 
difficulties in choosing career, collect plans on working abroad  
Lithuania Barometer of 
employment opportunities Lithuanian Labour Exchange 
(PES) Information on labour demand (for the 
unemployed and new entrants) 
Lithuania Systematic assessment 
of supply-demand matching for persons with high-level skills (master’s degree) VšĮ Vilniaus verslo 
konsultacinis centras (research and consultancy institution) To analyse the capacity of highly skilled 
persons to adapt to the needs of high-tech and innovative industries, ta king into consideration 
Lithuanian and EU labour market trends 
 
EN 87   EN Lithuania Developing a 
methodology for studies of the demand for experts and implementing a pilot study in high-tech areas National Development Institute 
(non-governmental non-profit public organisation) Developing a methodology for identifying the 
demand for experts in Lithuania 
Luxembourg Qualifications of 
tomorrow  Business Federation of 
Luxembourg (FEDIL), the 
Luxembourg Bankers’ 
Association and the Chamber of Commerce  
Luxembourg Continuing 
professional development in the social sector  ESF-funded project, ‘Institut 
universitaire international Luxembourg’ (IUIL), the ‘Unité de Formation et d’Education Permanente’ (UFEP) and the Department of Labour and Employment  Qualitative survey to identify the CPD needs 
of social sector employees (disability and carers)  
Malta Scoping Study on the 
Demand and Supply of ICT Skills in Malta Ministry for Investment, 
Industry and IT and KPMG The objective of this study is to increase ICT 
awareness within the local scene and to explore the measures to be implemented in order to achieve the growth that this sector is capable of today and in the future 
Poland Forecasting the 
number of persons Institute of Labour and Social 
Studies, University of Łódź To identify changes in demand for IT 
specialists 
 
EN 88   EN employed in the IT 
industry 
Portugal National Qualifications 
System (Sistema Nacional de Qualificações - SNQ) - the new regulatory framework, approved by the Government in October 2007  Government  This system brings  together vocational training 
taking place in the educational system and vocational training taking place in the labour market, providing them with shared objectives and instruments. It aims to ensure the recognition of the standards for vocational training in view of the needs of enterprises and 
economy, as well as to ensure the fast and permanent up grading of the National 
Qualifications Catal ogue (Catálogo Nacional 
das Qualificações– CNQ) and its diffusion through training promoters. 
Slovakia Ad hoc surveys for 
anticipation/forecasting of skill needs  Regions and large cities To forecast skill needs 
Slovakia Ad hoc surveys for 
anticipation/forecasting of skill needs  Sectoral employers 
organisations To forecast skill needs 
 
EN 89   EN Spain INCUAL’s 
Professional Observatory Spanish Qualifications Institute 
(INCUAL), Ministry of Education, Social Policy and Sports To design, elaborate and update the National 
Catalogue of Professional Qualifications and the National Catalogue of Vocational Training Modules. The Observatory monitors and analyses labour market  trends regarding 
qualifications and carr ies out research on 
specific sectors of the economy, focusing on 
the current situation of the sector, forecasts of future trends in employment and qualifications and the education, training and experience required for those qualifications 
Spain Education and training 
needs and patterns among private-sector companies in the Autonomous Community of Murcia Regional Employment Service 
of the Autonomous Community of Murcia  To analyses and identify current needs and 
future patterns in the domain of education and training 
Sweden  Business Tendency 
Survey The National Institute of 
Economic Research (Konjukturinstitutet, NIER) The objective is to provide a quick qualitative 
indication of actual outcomes and expectations regarding, among other things, the employment and recruitment situation, labour market shortages, etc. 
 
EN 90   EN Turkey Turkish Employment 
Inventory The Gazi University of Ankara, 
jointly with the Public Employment Service (ISKUR), proposed this project to the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) To produce an ‘inventory’ of ‘all’ existing jobs 
and employer demand across Turkey so that the ‘local’ VET system could produce the ‘required’ graduates based on the current demand of ‘local’ employers  
 
 
EN 91   EN ANNEX 4 — Table 3.6: Approaches to anticipati ng skill needs in European countries  
AT The system is well-developed and incorporates several elements: qualification 
barometer for the comprehensive and con tinuing monitoring of skill demand with an 
on-line information system, macro-level me dium-term forecasts, accreditation system 
for universities of applied sciences, networ king of researchers in public employment 
services, and employer skills surveys. 
BE The Public Employment Service (VDAB — Be NL) and FOREM (Be FR) conducts an 
annual analysis of hard-to-fill vacancies. Research conducted by social partners to 
identify occupational profiles started in 1997, though it is unclear whether this process 
continues or has been completed.  
BG Evidence of some forecasting activities  conducted by the National Centre for 
Professional Development on behalf of the Ministry of Labour a nd Social Policies. 
CY Long-established system of macro-economic medium- to long-term forecasts by sector 
and occupation, complemented by short-term  forecasts and annual surveys of skill 
needs among employers in colla boration with social partners 
CZ The country has started activel y developing a system for the anticipation of skill needs 
during the last decade. It is based on medium-term, macro-level quantitative 
forecasting which incorporates some qualitati ve elements of sectoral projections. In 
parallel, qualitative sectoral surveys covering  several selected sectors are now planned 
to be linked to a more permanent system of sector councils. Although there is no 
developed system as yet, a number of effort s at national, regional and sector levels aim 
for a more systematic approach.  
DE Well-developed system based on mutual sharin g of research activities and experiences 
by networking (FreQueNz). The system includ es qualitative research into sectors, 
branches, occupations, econometric forecasting and qualification standards research.  
DK The system is based on the involvement of social partners in funding and in direct 
research collaboration, mostly at trade and lo cal levels. Systematic anticipation of skill 
needs at national level is not very pronounced. Employment  and education forecasts 
conducted by the Economic Council of the Labo ur Movement and the Danish Institute 
of Governmental Research ar e feeding into the policy debate on future imbalances 
between the supply and demand for labour.  
EE The country has started activel y developing a system for the anticipation of skill needs 
during the last decade. It is based on medium-term, macro-level quantitative 
forecasting which incorporates some qualitati ve elements of sectoral projections. In 
parallel, qualitative sectoral surveys cover several selected  sectors. A lthough there is 
no developed system yet, a number of efforts are aiming for a more systematic approach.  
ES Anticipation of skill needs through work on the development and updating of 
vocational qualifications, sector studies, pe rmanent observatory of occupations, and the 
network of observatories  of the labour market 
 
EN 92   EN FI The system is quite well-developed. Quantitative forecasting is a major building block 
of the system, although some qualitative el ements are built into the forecasts, and 
qualitative surveys and focus groups are conducted in parallel . Partnership and 
cooperation are important elements of th e system. One product is an electronic 
information bank. 
FR A long-established system for the anticipat ion of skill needs based on macro-level 
medium-term forecasts, sectoral studies, regional surveys and employer skills surveys. Active involvement of social partners and regional actors. .  
GR The system has started developing only recently. It is based on local partnerships, 
alumni surveys and other transition-to-w ork type of research. Some econometric 
forecasting and other quantitative and qua litative surveys are under development. 
HR New forecasting models are being introduced through the guidelines for human 
resource development and the Educat ion Sector Development Plan 2005-2010. 
HU Regular short-term labour market proj ections by PES, based on enterprise 
questionnaire surveys, recent developmen t of medium- to long-term macro-level 
forecasting funded through the Human Resources Development Operational 
Programme, although the future of  this initiative is uncerta in as it has not led to a 
preferred forecasting method. No systematic  anticipation of skill needs yet, but a 
number of efforts to incorporate conti nuous monitoring of skill needs into the VET 
system. 
IE Fairly well-established system based on a comb ination of sector stud ies, general labour 
market and employment trends analysis , and medium- to long-term employment 
demand forecasting by occupational categories 
IS  Occupational Councils are responsible for providing forecasts of skill needs, and work 
with the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture to identify and develop the 
proposed education and training response.  
IT The system is based on sector and regiona l studies, hiring surveys and short- and 
medium-term econometric forecasting by sector and occupation. The country is now attempting to put in place a more systematic approach to permanent skill needs monitoring with a linked internet platform for data dissemination. 
LT Anticipation of skill needs through sector studies and development of qualification 
standards and forecasts based on available statistical indicators and employer surveys. No developed system of skill needs antici pation yet, though work has recently been 
carried out on the development and applicat ion of medium-term (5-year) forecasting 
methodology for skills/qualifications demand on the labour market, with reporting 
scheduled during 2008.  
LV No developed system of skill needs anticipation yet. Many developments are planned, 
including a more systematic approach and research. Upcoming projects are in the ESF 
pipeline. Estimates of labour supply and demand, based on three development scenarios. 
 
EN 93   EN LU A Permanent Committee of Labour and Em ployment has been established by the 
Ministry of Labour and met for the first time in June 2008. The Committee is to 
examine employment, unemployment, working conditions and the security / health of 
workers. Regular employer surveys conducted in  the banking sector to anticipate short-
term skills requirements. . 
MT Short-term labour demand forecasting based on an employer survey was conducted by 
the Public Employment Service, but this  survey has been discontinued. A scoping 
study on the demand and supply of IT skills  was conducted in 2007, while the Central 
Bank of Malta conducts a regular  business perception survey.  
NL Very well-developed and long-establishe d system with multi-source funding and 
strong involvement of social partners, qua ntitative and qualitative information, very 
detailed results to support decision-mak ing as well as to provide guidance for 
individuals.  
NO  Statistics Norway produces macroeconom ic labour supply and demand projections 
(current projections to 2025), while the Norwegian Labour and We lfare Organisation 
conducts a short-term (annual) anal ysis of labour market needs. 
PL The country has scaled down th e interdepartmental efforts of the last decade to develop 
a system of labour-market skills dema nd forecasting. Planning to develop a new 
system is in place as well as efforts to establish a more holistic approach to achieve 
more robust and reliable results. Poland ha s applied an interesting method for the 
observation of trends and changes in skills demand in old Member States. 
PT Sectoral analyses linked to the developmen t of professional prof iles and qualification 
standards 
RO Two forecasts identified, though it is unclear whether these are ad hoc studies or work 
that will continue. The first looks at supply and demand in seven of the eight 
Development Regions (excluding Buch arest and Ilfov). The second forecast 
commissioned in 2005 is a nati onal occupational forecast.  
SK No developed system of skill needs anticipati on yet. There is awareness of the need for 
such system as well as planning to develop it, but there are indica tions of a lack of 
available expertise. Promising developm ent at sectoral and regional levels. 
SI No developed system of sk ill needs anticipation yet, t hough SYSDEM data mention an 
annual medium-term forecast prepared by the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and 
Development. Skill needs analysis is perf ormed for the development of occupational 
standards, including a few sectoral analys es. The systematic development of the 
anticipation of skill needs in  the Podravje region is pr omising, with suggestions and 
attempts to disseminate the good pr actice to other territories.  
SE Very well-developed and long-established sy stem with several complementary long-, 
medium- and short-term forecasts, a system of sectoral studies, regular questionnaire-
based skills surveys among employers, and regular regional surveys on employment 
(past and planned) 
 
EN 94   EN TR The Turkish Statistical Office conducts a m onthly labour force survey to ascertain 
short-term skill needs. The public employment service (PES) collects and collates redundancy data. The PES has plans to analyse these data in the near future. A joint project between the University of Ankara a nd the PES is developing a jobs inventory to 
examine employers’ skill needs: results are anticipated in the near future. 
UK Very well-developed and long-establis hed system (although still under further 
development and change) based on several pillars: 
- well-coordinated sectoral and regional res earch into skill needs identification through 
the national Sector Skills Development Agen cy and a network of 25 Sector Skills 
Councils; 
- medium- to long-term sophisticated for ecasting to provide the necessary level of 
detail at sectoral and regional level as  well as implications for qualifications; 
- regular employer skills surveys at national and regional level. 
Source: CEDEFOP128, supplemented by SYSDEM (BE, BG , HR, LU, MT, NO, RO, TR) and 
Eurydice (IS) responses 
                                                 
128 CEDEFOP, Systems for anticipation of skill needs in  the EU Member States (draft version), 2008.