EN    EN EN 
043 
EN    EN  EUROPEAN COMMISSION 
Brussels, 30.4.2010 
SEC(2010) 479 final 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
accompanying the 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
 
to the budgetary authority on guarantees covered by the general budget  
situation at 30 June 2009 
  
COM(2010)188  
EN 2   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the Budget ............................. 3 
1.1. Tables A1 and A2......................................................................................................... 3  
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) ..................................................................................... 3 1.1.2. Capital outstanding (Table A1).................................................................................... 4 1.1.3. Annual risk (Table A2) ................................................................................................ 4 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee ...................................................... 7 1.3. Evolution of risk......................................................................................................... 11 
1.3.1. Situation of loans to Member States .......................................................................... 11 1.3.2. Situations of loans to third countries.......................................................................... 12 1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees ....................................................................... 14 1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations.................................................................................... 14 1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties................................................................................ 15 1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees................................................................................ 15 2. Country-risk evaluation.............................................................................................. 16 2.1. Candidate countries.................................................................................................... 17 
2.1.1. Turkey .................................................................................................................. ...... 17 
2.2. Potential candidate countries...................................................................................... 18 2.2.1. Serbia.................................................................................................................. ........ 18 
2.3. New Independent States............................................................................................. 19 2.3.1. Georgia................................................................................................................. ...... 19 
2.4. Mediterranean partners............................................................................................... 21 2.4.1. Jordan .................................................................................................................. ....... 21 
2.4.2. Egypt ................................................................................................................... ....... 22 
2.4.3. Lebanon................................................................................................................. ..... 23 
2.4.4. Tunisia................................................................................................................. ....... 25 
2.4.5. Morocco ................................................................................................................. .... 27 
2.5. Other countries........................................................................................................... 28 
2.5.1. South Africa ............................................................................................................ ... 28 
2.5.2. Mexico.................................................................................................................. ...... 30 
EN 3   EN 1. E XPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE BUDGET  
1.1. Tables A1 and A2 
The purpose of Tables A1 and A2 is to show the outstanding amount and annual repayments of 
capital and interest in respect of borrowing and lending operations fo r which the risk is covered by 
the Budget. The figures show the maximum possible risk for the EU in respect of these operations 
and must not be read as meani ng that these amounts will actually be drawn from the Fund or the 
Budget. 
In these tables, figures related to “New Member States” refer to the Member States which acceded 
to the European Union on 1 May 2004 and on 1 January 2007. 
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) 
This is the aggregate of the maximum amounts of  capital authorised (cei lings) for each operation 
decided by the Council or by the Coun cil and the European Parliament. 
In order to relate it to the risk which the Budget might have to cove r, account should be taken of the 
following factors which could affect it: 
Factor increasing the risk: 
• the interest on the loan s must be added to the authorised ceiling. 
Factors reducing the risk: 
• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB1: 
75% of the total amounts of lo ans signed in the Mediterran ean countries based on the 
Mediterranean protocols of 1977 and Counc il Regulations 1762/92/EEC and 1763/92/EEC. 
70% of the total amounts of loan s signed as part of lending ope rations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 96/ 723/EC, 97/256/EC, 98/348/EC and 98/729/EC and a 
sharing of risk between the EU and the EIB as the Budget guarantee covers only political risks in 
some cases; 
65% of the total amounts of loans signed as part of financing operations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 99/786/ EC, 2000/24/EC and Decision 2009/633/EC of the 
Council and the European Parliament, and a shari ng of risk between the EU and the EIB as the 
Budget guarantee covers only political risks in some cases, as regards the two first-mentioned 
decisions, and only risks of a polit ical or sovereign na ture in the case of the latter decision; 
• operations already repaid, since the amounts c oncerned are the maximum amounts of capital 
authorised (ceilings) and not outstanding amounts; 
• the ceilings are not necessarily taken up in full. 
                                                 
1 Within each portfolio individual EIB loans are, de fact o, guaranteed at 100% until the global ceiling is reached. 
EN 4   EN Another factor to be considered is that some loan s are disbursed in currenci es other than the EUR. 
Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the ceiling may be exceeded when the amounts disbursed up to 
the date of the report are converted into EUR. 
1.1.2. Capital outstanding (Table A1) 
This is the amount of cap ital still to be repaid on  a given date in respect of operations disbursed. 
Compared with the previous aggregate, the am ount outstanding does not include loans which have 
not yet been disbursed or the proportion of disbursed loans wh ich have already been repaid. 
1.1.3. Annual risk (Table A2) 
Estimated amount of principal and interest due each financial year by each country according to 
disbursements made until 30 June 20092. 
                                                 
2 For the purpose of this calculation, it is assumed th at defaulting loans are not accelerated, i.e. only due 
payments are taken into account. 
EN 5   EN Authorised Capital Capital Remainder
Operations ceiling outstanding at outstanding at to be disbursed
31.12.2008 30.06.2009 at 30.06.2009
MEMBER STATES  
EIB (new Member States )  3 921 3 659  766
MFA to Bul garia and Romania  140 115
Euratom to Bul garia and Romania  433 431
BoP1 
Hungary 6 500 2 000 4 000 2 500
Latvia 3 100 1 000 2 100
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL  6 494 9 205 5 366
THIRD COUNTRIESA. Macro-Financial Assistance
Albania 9 9 9
Bosnia-Herze govina 40 40 40
FYROM 90 85 82Geor
gia 142 58 58
Lebanon 50 25  25
Serbia and Montene gro 280 280 280
Tajikistan 75 28 28
Ukraine 453 15 15
Sub total MFA 1 139  514  536  50
B. EURATOM2  53  50  9
C. Other
EIB Pre-Accession countries 28 755 5 372 5 487 5 440EIB Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 28 342 5 777 5 930 4 604
EIB Asia and Latin America 8 205 1 731 1 659 1 311
EIB South Africa 2 400  599  583  497
Sub total EIB367 702 17 401 17 318 12 618
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL 68 841 14 047 14 245 11 911GRAND TOTAL 68 841 20 541 23 450 17 276
(1) By Decision 431/2008/EC of 18 May 2009 the Council decided to increase the ceiling from EUR 25 000 million to EUR 50 000 mi llion.
(3) The subtotal EIB includes the EIB loans to Member States.  
Credit line Loans made Amounts Amounts
Operations authorised available minus disbursed outstanding 
cancellations at 30.06.2009
Mandate 2007/2013: 25 800 8 611 1 189 1 187
Pre-Accession countries 8 700 3 621  381  381
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries: 12 400 3 163  468  468
Mediterranean 8 700 2 861  468  468
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia 3 700  303  0  0
Asia and Latin America: 3 800 1 504  318  316
Asia 1 000  369
Latin America 2 800 1 135  318  316
South Africa  900  323  22  22
Previous General Mandate 2000/20075: 20 060 19 510 14 049 11 585
Pre-Accession countries 10 235 7 372 5 187 4 693
Neighbourhood and Partnershi p countries 6 520 6 416 4 607 3 915
Asia and Latin America 2 480 2 135 1 653 1 043
South Africa 825 824 523  435
Member States (following the accession ) 2 763 2 080 1 499
sub-total 65 %345 860 28 121 15 238 12 772
Financial agreements (70% Guarantee rate) 7 477 6 513 5 962 2 754
Pre-Accession countries 3 770  477  431  296
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 2 310 1 617 1 495  695
Asia and Latin America: 1 022  809  661  170
South Africa  375  375  266  114
Member States (following the accession) 3 236 3 110 1 479
sub-total 70 %37 477 6 513 5 962 2 754
Financial agreements (75% Guarantee rate) 7 712 7 062 7 178  955
Pre-Accession countries 1 350  713  720  109
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 6 362 4 492 4 499  772
Member States (following the accession) 1 857 1 959  75
sub-total 75 %37 712 7 062 7 178  955
Financial agreements (100% Guarantee rate) 6 653 5 320 5 138  837
Pre-Accession countries 4 700  29  29  8
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries  750  315  86  80
Asia and Latin America  903  710  716  130
South Africa  300  285  204  12
Member States (following the accession) 3 982 4 104  607
sub-total 100 %36 653 5 320 5 138  837
Total  67 702 47 016 33 516 17 318
(3) Percentage figures relate to the Guarantee rate.
(5) Including Turkey Terra and Special Action Turkey.(4) Loans to New Member States were drawn from 'Pre-Accession countries' or from 'Neighbourhood and Partnership countries' ceil ings. Bulgaria and Romania are 
included in the "New Member States".TABLE A1: CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPERATIONS DISBURSED at 30.06.2009 (in EUR million)
(2) The overall ceiling is EUR 4 000 million for loans to Member States and to certain non-member States. 
ANNEX TO TABLE A1: SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS at 30.06.2009 (in EUR million)
EN 6   EN Ranking Country 2nd 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 until 2038 Total Outstanding
1 Turkey  156.5  312.6  319.7  352.9  349.4  362.2  349.1 2 669.0 4 871.3
2 Romania  152.4  253.3  290.3  259.3  258.6  239.4  238.6 2 596.4 4 288.4
3 Hungary  122.5  196.4 2 209.1  141.8  133.0 2 128.4  63.0 1 560.9 6 555.1
4 Egypt  92.7  196.4  191.2  184.1  176.9  157.5  157.2  973.5 2 129.3
5 Morocco  70.5  145.2  152.1  155.4  157.6  151.5  135.8 1 047.0 2 014.96 Tunisia  69.0  141.2  139.9  141.3  144.6  140.4  135.4  858.0 1 769.9
7 Bulgaria  68.3  85.2  69.8  82.6  68.1  68.7  65.4  287.6  795.7
8 Lebanon  58.1  69.2  70.9  71.0  65.8  48.1  41.9  119.6  544.6
9 South Africa  43.9  74.5  61.2  75.3  48.3  50.4  44.5  225.5  623.6
10 Czech Republic  42.3  82.0  73.2  70.7  68.1  56.4  45.7  130.0  568.511 Poland  41.7  80.0  77.5  75.0  69.3  52.9  42.9  142.1  581.5
12 Serbia  34.2  58.3  65.3  108.2  107.6  114.5  164.5  570.0 1 222.3
13 Slovak Republic  30.5  65.5  66.0  51.0  37.2  25.8  15.1  116.1  407.2
14 Georgia  24.2  22.4  13.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  60.2
15 Jordan  22.9  41.2  39.5  37.6  31.2  25.3  17.7  70.5  286.016 Mexico  22.0  23.2  3.3  3.3  3.3  3.3  3.3  13.1  74.6
17 Brazil  21.9  62.8  47.7  42.0  70.0  93.3  201.7  14.4  553.6
18 Syria  19.2  44.9  45.5  46.1  44.3  44.3  42.1  263.2  549.5
19 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia  19.1  24.7  24.5  26.3  23.0  25.0  23.5  82.4  248.6
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina  17.7  32.0  34.0  57.4  30.2  28.9  69.9  152.5  422.721 Croatia  15.4  31.1  39.7  42.7  42.8  39.4  38.5  301.8  551.4
22 Slovenia  12.4  20.8  14.3  11.4  9.4  7.4  4.4  2.1  82.3
23 Indonesia  9.4  18.6  14.8  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  31.2  125.5
24 Argentina  8.8  14.4  14.4  11.3  11.2  3.8  3.8  0.0  67.7
25 Albania  7.4  14.3  14.3  15.8  13.7  16.2  16.6  124.2  222.526 Ukraine  7.4  6.1  6.1  6.0  5.9  5.9  5.8  14.1  57.3
27 the Philippines  6.5  12.7  12.5  12.7  13.0  13.1  10.8  21.9  103.0
28 Pakistan  6.1  11.9  11.9  11.9  9.0  6.1  6.1  13.2  76.1
29 Vietnam  5.6  14.3  14.7  14.8  14.6  14.4  6.8  12.5  97.7
30 Cyprus  4.8  9.7  9.3  7.2  4.7  3.1  0.0  0.0  38.931 China  4.3  8.3  7.6  6.9  7.0  7.1  7.2  21.7  70.0
32 Israel  4.1  9.1  10.6  10.4  10.6  10.8  9.1  115.4  180.1
33 Peru  4.1  10.1  17.5  18.4  18.3  14.8  14.8  30.2  128.2
34 Latvia  3.6  60.2  75.4  73.9  73.8 1 073.7 1 242.3  13.9 2 616.8
35 Thailand  3.5  4.9  4.5  6.2  8.4  2.0  0.0  0.0  29.636 Algeria  3.5  6.8  6.6  5.9  5.2  2.2  0.0  0.0  30.1
37 Lithuania  3.2  5.7  5.5  5.3  5.1  5.0  4.8  17.9  52.4
38 Russia  2.6  4.8  4.8  7.3  7.3  7.3  7.3  35.7  76.9
39 Sri Lanka  2.5  3.2  4.8  7.7  10.4  13.5  13.9  57.2  113.3
40 Bangladesh  2.4  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.7  0.0  0.0  0.0  21.541 The West Bank and the Gaza Strip  2.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  10.1  36.8
42 Costa Rica  1.8  3.6  3.6  3.6  3.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  16.2
43 India  1.6  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  14.4
44 Malaysia  1.5  3.0  1.8  1.8  0.9  0.0  0.0  0.0  9.0
45 El Salvador  1.3  2.1  2.0  0.9  1.4  1.2  1.2  5.1  15.246 Maldives  1.3  2.9  4.4  5.2  5.2  5.2  5.2  17.3  46.8
47 Uruguay  1.1  2.0  2.5  2.8  3.3  3.7  2.9  4.3  22.7
48 Tadjikistan  1.0  0.3  0.3  12.2  12.1  4.0  0.0  0.0  30.0
49 Panama  0.9  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  19.3  34.8
50 Colombia  0.8  4.1  9.7  9.7  9.7  9.7  9.7  36.7  90.2
51 Montenegro  0.8  1.6  2.4  3.1  3.5  3.4  3.3  34.9  53.0
52 Estonia  0.5  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  3.053 Ecuador  0.4  2.0  4.0  4.0  4.0  4.0  4.0  14.1  36.6
54 Malta  0.3  0.7  0.7  0.7  0.3  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.6
55 Paraguay  0.1  0.0  3.5  7.1  7.1  7.1  7.1  3.5  35.5
56 Republic of Moldova  0.1  0.1  0.1  0.1  0.2  0.4  0.5  3.3  4.8
57 Laos  0.0  0.0  0.2  0.4  0.5  0.5  0.6  34.9  37.0
Total outstanding 1 262.8 2 316.0 4 334.4 2 336.8 2 235.9 5 120.9 3 303.3 12 887.7 33 797.7
Member States 482.7 860.5 2892.3 779.5 727.7 3660.9 1722.1 4866.9 15992.5Table A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget in EUR million based on the amounts (capital and interest) due under all operat ions 
(MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30.06.2009
 
EN 7   EN 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee  
Tables A3a, A3b(1), A3b(2) and A4 
Instrument Decision Date of Loan Guarantee Maturity Loan Amount Outstanding Outstanding
decision term Rate Date situation decided amount amount
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2008 at 30.06.2009
 - partially disbursed (b) in EUR million in EUR million
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
BOP 2002/332/EC 18.02.02 100% (b) 50 000.00 2 000.00 5 000.00
Hungary 2009/102/EC 04.11.08 (b) 6 500.00 2 000.00 4 000.00
1st tranche 9/12/2008 3 09.12.2011 (c) 2 000.00 2 000.00
2nd tranche 26/03/2009 5.6 07.11.2014 (c) 2 000.00
Latvia 2009/290/EC 20.01.09 5.1 03.04.2014 (b) 3 100.00 1 000.00
1st tranche (c) 1 000.00
EURATOM  100% 4 000.00  432.50  430.50
77/270-271/Euratom 29.03.77 (c)  500.00
80/29/Euratom 20.12.79 (c)  500.00
82/170/Euratom 15.03.82 (c) 1 000.0085/537/Euratom 05.12.85 (c) 1 000.0090/212/Euratom 23.04.90 (b) 1 000.00
Bulgaria  212.50
     1st tranche 20 10.05.2021 (c)  40.00  40.00
     2nd tranche 15 15.01.2017 (c)  12.75  12.00     3rd tranche 17 19.08.2019 (c)  25.00  25.00     4th tranche 15 18.06.2018 (c)  23.75  22.50     5th tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c)  35.00  35.00     6th tranche 16 10.09.2020 (c)  30.00  30.00     7th tranche 16 04.04.2021 (c)  25.00  25.00     8th tranche 14 23.02.2020 (c)  17.50  17.50Romania  223.50
     1st tranche 17 21.07.2022 (c)  100.00  100.00
     2nd tranche 19 26.11.2024 (c)  90.00  90.00     3rd tranche 18 23.02.2024 (c)  33.50  33.50
TOTAL 54 000.00 2 432.50 5 430.50 TABLE A3a
Borrowing and lending operations by the Communities to Member States 
Period 31.12.2008 to 30.06.2009
 
EN 8   EN TABLE A3b (1)
 European Union (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States*
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 31.12.2008 to 30.06.2009, broken down by countries and tranche
* Member States as of 01.01.2007 in EUR million 
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2008 Amounts Amounts at 30.06.2009
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
    BULGARIA IV* 99/731/EC 08.11.99 100.00
     1st tranche 10 21.12.2009 (c) 40.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 60.00 30.00 30.00
    ROMANIA IV* 99/732/EC 08.11.99 200.00   
     1st tranche 10 29.06.2010 (c) 100.00 50.00 25.00 25.00
     2nd tranche 10 17.07.2013 (c) 50.00 50.00 50.00
     3rd tranche  - - ( a ) 50.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA I 99/325/EC 10.05.99 20.00
     1st tranche 15 22.12.2014 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA II 02/883/EC 09.11.02  20.00
     1st tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 09.02.2021 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    FYROM I 97/471/EC 22.07.97 40.00
     1st tranche 15 27.09.2012 (c) 25.00 20.00 20.00
     2nd tranche 15 13.02.2013 (c) 15.00 15.00 3.00 12.00
    FYROM II 99/733/EC 08.11.99 50.00
     1st tranche 15 15.01.2016 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 30.01.2017 (c) 12.00 12.00 12.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.06.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     4th tranche 15 23.12.2018 (c) 18.00 18.00 18.00
 
EN 9   EN TABLE A3b (2)  
 European Union (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Chan ges in amounts outstandin g durin g six-month period 31.12.2008 to 30.06.2009, broken down b y countries and tranche
in EUR million
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 31.12.2008 Amounts Amounts at 30.06.2009
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
  UKRAINE III 98/592/EC 15.10.98 150.00
     1st tranche 10 30.07.2009 (c) 58.00 14.50 14.50
-- ( a ) 92.00
  UKRAINE IV 2002/639/EC 12.07.02 (d) 110.00
  GEORGIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 24.07.2013 (c) 110.00 57.50 57.50
  ARMENIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 30.12.2013 (a) 28.00 0.00 0.00
  TAJIKISTAN 2000/244/EC 20.03.00 (b) 75.00
     1st tranche 15 30.03.2016 (c) 60.00 28.00 28.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2001/549/EC 16.07.01 15 17.10.2016 (c) 225.00 225.00 225.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2002/882/EC 09.11.02 55.00
     1st tranche 15 28.02.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 01.09.2018 (c) 30.00 30.00 30.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.05.2020 (c) 15.00 15.00 15.00
ALBANIA 2004/580/EC 29.04.04 15 23.03.2021 (c) 9.00 9.00 9.00
LEBANON 2007/860/EC 21.12.07 04.06.2014 (b) 50.00 25.00 25.00
UKRAINE (Euratom) 94/179/EC 21.03.94 11 15.03.2018 (b) EUR equivalent 52.90 2.77 50.13
of USD 83 million
TOTAL  706.90 25.00 30.77 701.13
 
EN 10   EN TABLE A4 LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB in EUR million 
Date Rate Date of Amount Loans signed Amount outstanding
Geographical Area Decision of decision of guarantee guarantee decided         (minus cancellations)
contract at 31.12.08 at 30.06.09 at 31.12.08 at 30.06.09
MED. Financial protocols(1) 8.03.77 75% (2) 30.10.78/10.11.78 6 062 5 548 5 548  608  615
MED. Horizontal cooperation 1762/92/EEC 29.06.92 75% (2) 09.11.92/18.11.92 1 800 1 656 1 656  441  340
TOTAL MED. (3) 7 862 7 204 7 204 1 049  955
C and E Europe I 90/62/EEC(4) 12.02.90 100% 24.04.90/14.05.90 1 000  912  912  120  102
91/252/EEC(5) 14.05.91 100% 19.01.93/04.02.93  700  493  493  9  5
C and E Europe II 93/696/EC(6) 13.12.93 100% 22.07.94/12.08.94 3 000 2 464 2 464  618  507
Asia, Latin America I 93/115/EEC 15.02.93 100% 04.11.93/17.11.93  750  571  571  136  125
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 100% 18.03.97/26.03.97  153  139  139  5  5
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 70% 21.10.97  122  122  122  11  9
South Africa 95/207/EC 01.06.95 100% 04.10.95/16.10.95  300  285  285  41  12
New mandates 97/256/EC(7) 14.04.97 70% 25.07.97/29.07.97 7 105 6 142 6 142 2 730 2 578
FYROM 98/348/EC 19.05.98 70% 29.07.98/07.08.98  150  150  150  117  112
Bosnia and Herzegovina 98/729/CE 14.12.98 70% 16.06.99/22.06.99  100  100  100  57  55
Turkey Terra 99/786/EC 29.11.99 65% 18.04.00/23.05.00  600  600  600  524  526
Mandates 2000-2007 2000/24/EC(8) 22.12.99 65% 19.07.00/24.07.00 (11) 19 460 19 002 18 910 10 976 11 058
The Baltic Sea basin of Russia 2001/777/EC(9) 06.11.01 100% 06.05.02/07.05.02  100  85  85  80  77
Russia, Belarus, Rep. Of Moldova and 
Ukraine2005/48/EC(10) 22.12.04 100% 21.12.05/09.12.05  500  230  230  1  3
Mandate 2007-2013 2006/1016/EC(12) 19.12.06 65% 01.08.07/29.08.07 (13) 27 800 5 943 8 611  928 1 188
TOTAL 69 702 44 441 47 018 17 400 17 317
(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.  
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under  lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78.
       By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance with the Council De cision of 7 October 1975.  
(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 5 497 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4)  Poland, Hungary.(5) Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.
(6) Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.
(7) Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.(8) South-eastern Neighbours, Mediterranean countries, Latin America and Asia, Republic of South Africa, Special action Turkey,  as amended (2005/47/EC).
(9) A special lending action for selected envir onmental projects in the Baltic Sea basin of Russia under the Northern Dimension .
(10) A special lending action for certain types of projec ts in Russia, Belarus,Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
(11) Restated and amended in 2005.
(12) Pre-Accession countries, Neighbourhood and Partnership countrie s, Asia and Latin America, Republic of South Africa.
(13) The amount decided of EUR 27 800 million is broken down into a basic ceilin g of a fixed maximum amount of EUR 25 800 million and an o ptional mandate of EUR 2 000 million.
 
EN 11   EN 1.3. Evolution of risk 
1.3.1. Situation of loans to Member States The risk towards Member States should decrea se in future for the loans disbursed under 
Euratom, MFA and EIB guaranteed financing. 
However, the total risk toward Member States is increasing. This situa tion is explained by the 
activation of the Balance-of-Payment
3 facility in 2008 with new BoP loan disbursements 
planned in 2009 and 2010. 
Hungary will reimburse in 2011 its first tranch e of EUR 2 billion di sbursed in December 2008 
(included in Graph A1). 
In addition, one tranche of EU R 2 billion disbursed in 2009 for Hungary will be reimbursed in 
2014. Two other tranches of EUR 1 billion fo r Latvia and EUR 2 billion for Hungary, 
disbursed in 2009 will be reimbursed in 2014. Three additional tranches totalling 
EUR 4.2 billion disbursed during the second se mester 2009 will be reimbursed in 2015 and 
2016. 
Graph A1: Total Annual Risk borne by th e Budget in EUR million based on the 
amounts (capital and interest) due under op erations (MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) 
disbursed at 30.06.20094 with the Member States . (EUR million) 
- 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ATOM
MFA
EIB
BOP
                                                 
3 Council Regulation (EC) No 332/2002 of 18 February 2002 (OJ L 53, 23.2.2002, p.1). 
4 As of 31 December 2007, the 2008 annual risk for Member States was EUR 769 million. 
 
EN 12   EN 1.3.2. Situations of loans to third countries 
At 30 June 200, a total of EUR 4 794 million remained to be disbursed by the EIB under the 
EUR 20 060 million EIB external lending mandate for 2000– 2007: 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
30.06.2009***  
Mediterranean 6 520 6 416 1 636
South-Eastern Neighbours** 10 235 7 372 2 156
Asia, Latin America 2 480 2 135  112
South Africa  825  824  194
Member States* 2 763  696
20 060 19 510 4 794
* EUR 2,763 million for Member States are not included (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia).
** The ceiling includes Terra Turkey and Special Action Turkey.
*** Signatures up to 31.07.2008Table A5: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2000 - 2007 
 
At the same date, an amount of EUR 7 449 million remained to be disbursed out of signatures 
made under the EIB external mandate for 2007-2013. 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
30.06.2009  
A. Pre-Accession Countries 8 700 3 621 3 252
B. Neighbourhood and partnership countries 12 400 3 163 2 695
C. Asia and Latin America 3 800 1 504 1 199
D. South Africa  900  323  303
  
25 800 8 611 7 449
*the current mandate only covers the period until 31 October 2011.Table A6: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2007 - 2013*
 
Graph A2: total Annual Risk borne by the B udget in EUR million based on the amounts 
(capital and interest) due under all operation s (MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 
30.06.2009 with third countries . (EUR million) 
 
EN 13   EN 02004006008001000120014001600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ATOM
MFA
EIB
 
Graph A3 presents the result of simulations  of disbursement scen arios under the mandates 
preceding  the current EIB external mandate, as we ll as under the current mandate, established 
for the period 1 February 2007—31 Octobe r 2011 by Decision No 633/2009/EC of the 
European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009. The rhythm of disbursements has a 
strong impact on the amount of the provisi oning of the Fund in future years. 
Graph A3: Estimated outstanding amount covered by the Fund from 2009 to 2013. 
5 0007 50010 00012 50015 00017 50020 00022 50025 00027 50030 00032 50035 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013EUR million
 
 
EN 14   EN 1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees 
1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations In this type of operation, the EU borrows on the financial market and on-lends the proceeds 
(back-to-back) to Member States (balance of  payments), third countries (macro-financial 
assistance) or utility companies (Euratom). 
The loan repayments are scheduled to match th e repayments of the borrowings due from the 
EU. If the recipient of the loan is in defau lt, the Commission will first draw on its own cash 
resources to ensure a timely repayment of the EU borrowing on the contractual due date. 
Should the amounts needed for the necessary cas h coverage exceed, in a certain period or 
date, the available Commission's treasury balances, the Commission would, in accordance with article 12 of Council Regulation 1150/2000
5., draw on additional cash resources from the 
Member States in order to fulfil its legal obligations towards its lenders.  
In the case of BoP loans, where reimburse d amounts can be very high, the beneficiary 
Member States are requested to deposit the amounts due at the European Central Bank seven 
business days in advance of  the contractual due date. This gives enough time for the 
Commission and Member States to  provide for the cash advance to ensure timely repayment 
in case of default. 
In a second step, the treasury situat ion will be regularised as follows: 
Euratom and MFA loans: a) if the payment delay reaches three mont hs after the due date, the Commission draws 
on the Fund to cover for the default and obt ain the necessary funds to replenish its 
treasury.  
b) the Commission might also need to draw  on the Budget, most likely by means of a 
transfer to provide the co rresponding Budget line under ar ticle "01 04 01 European 
Community guarantees for lending operati ons" with the necessary appropriations 
needed to cover the default. This method is used when there are insufficient appropriations in the Fund or if the borrower is a Member State
6 and the transfers are 
likely to require advance authorisation by the budgetary authority  
c) by the re-use of recovered funds, if any. Balance of Payments (BoP) loans
: 
a) by the re-use of funds from late payments 
                                                 
5 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 implementing Council Decision 
2007/436/EC, Euratom of 7 June 2007 on the system of Communitie's own resources. 
6 Regarding the loans and loans guaranteed to accession  countries, they were covered by the Guarantee 
Fund and remained outstanding after the date of acce ssion. From that date, they cease to be external 
actions of the Communities and are therefore covered directly by the Budget. 
 
EN 15   EN b) the Commission may also need to propos e a transfer or an Amending Budget to 
budget the cash advance under the corresponding budget line "01 04 01 01 European Community guarantee for Community loans ra ised for balance-of-payment-support".  
1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties 
The EU provides a guarantee in respect of fi nancing granted by the EIB under the external 
mandates. When the recipient of a guaranteed lo an fails to make a payment on the due date, 
the EIB asks the Commission to pay the amounts owed by the defaulting entity in accordance 
with the relevant guara ntee agreement. The guarantee call mu st be paid within three months 
of receiving the EIB's request, either from th e Fund or directly from the Budget (should the 
resources of the Fund be insufficient). The EIB ad ministers the loan with  all the care required 
by good banking practice and is obliged to seek  to recover the payments due after the 
guarantee has been activated. 
Since the entry into force of the Regulation establishing the Guaran tee Fund for external 
actions
7, the provisions of the Agreement between the EU and the EIB on management of the 
Fund state that, after the EIB calls in the guara ntee in the event of a default, the Commission 
must authorise the Bank to withdraw the corresponding amounts from the Fund within three 
months. 
If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the guarantee 
is the same as for borrowing /lending operations, see 1.4.1 above. 
1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees 
If a borrower defaults on an EIB financing op eration guaranteed by  the Budget, the EU 
guarantee is called upon at the earliest three months after th e date on which payment has 
fallen due. The EU will act within three months of receiving such a letter from the EIB calling 
for the guarantee to be activated, authorising th e EIB to take the corre sponding amounts from 
the Fund if the beneficiary is a non-Member State or to receive payment from the Budget if 
the beneficiary is a Memb er State (see 1.4.2 above). 
For loans granted by the EU or Euratom, default interest is owed by loan beneficiaries for the 
time between the date on which cash resources are made available by the Budget and the date 
of repayment to the Bu dget. For EIB loans, default interest is calculated during the period 
between the due date of a defaulted loan inst alment and the date of receipt of the cash 
resources by the EIB from the Commission. From the date of payment to the EIB, default 
interest is due to the Commission. 
                                                 
7 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 480/2009 of 25 May 2009 establishing a Guarantee Fund for 
external actions (codified version), the "Guarantee Fund Regulation" (OJ L 145, 10.6.2009, p.10). 
 
EN 16   EN 2. C OUNTRY -RISK EVALUATION  
Third countries other than those presented in th e main report, but repr esenting important risks 
to the Budget in 2009, notably through EU macr o-financial assistance, Euratom loans or 
guaranteed EIB projects relate d financing, and either categor ised as “severely indebted” 
according to criteria set by the World Bank or f acing significant imbalances in their external 
or debt situation are also incl uded in the risk evaluation. The c ountry risk evaluation presented 
below comprises short analyses a nd tables of risk indicators. 
Explanatory notes for country-risk indicators 
Standard footnotes  
a) Includes only EU and EIB loans (outst anding disbursements) to CEEC, NIS and 
MED. 
b) The higher the ranking number, the lowe r the creditworthiness of the country. 
 Countries are rated on a scale of zero to 185; 185 represents  the least risk of default. 
A given country may improve its rating and still fall in the ranking if the average global rating for all ra ted countries improves. 
Abbreviations and English words used in tables
 
S&P Standard and Poor's 
CCFF Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility 
EFF Extended Fund Facility FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product SBA Stand-By Arrangement STF Systemic Transformation Facility est. Estimates m EUR EUR million bn USD USD billion n.a. not available 
 
 
EN 17   EN 2.1. Candidate countries  
2.1.1. Turkey The economic crisis hit Turkey mainly via the trade and financial channels. After having 
decelerated to 0.9% in 2008, real GDP growth fe ll by 10.6% year-on-year in the first half of 
2009. Collapsing external demand led to a doubl e-digit decline of exports while a lower 
availability of external fina ncing and domestic credit depr essed private consumption and 
investment. The recession seems to have bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009, but the recovery will be slow as the external demand remains sluggish and the fiscal stimulus is 
gradually being phased out . Overall, economic output is expect ed to decline by  around 6% in 
real terms in 2009, followed by positive - but belo w potential - growth in the following years. 
The trade and current deficits have declined su bstantially in the first half of 2009 as imports 
shrunk by more than 25% in volume terms and the terms of trade improved on lower oil and 
commodity prices. Both the public  and private sector continued to roll-over external debt at 
reasonable rates given the decline in econo mic activity and tighter domestic lending 
conditions. Gross FDI inflows fell from 2.4% of GDP  in 2008 to about 1% of GDP in the first 
half of 2009. Turkey's external debt declined by about 5% in nominal  terms from 2008 until 
the first quarter of 2009 and cu rrently amounts to about 40% of  GDP. Private external debt 
represents two thirds of the total debt and is  also on a declining tre nd. International reserves  
fell by about 5% to EUR 50 billion, and still cover about 5 months of imports. As a result of 
the improved risk-appetite for emerging markets as of the second quarter of 2009, the domestic currency recovered some of the losses incurred previously against the USD and the 
EUR and the central bank resumed its FX purchases since the beginning of August. 
Country-risk indicators Turkey footnotes 2007 2008 2009
G eneral indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 4.7 0.9 -5.8
Industrial production (% change) 6.9 -0.9 -6.5Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 9.9 11.0 13.5Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (%  change) 8.8 10.4 6.5
Exchange rate (end of period) (T L  per EU R ) 1.72 2.09 2.20
G eneral government ba la nce (%  o f G DP) -1 .0 -2. 2 -8 .0
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 146 947 122 413 100 100
Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.9 -5.5 -1.7Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 14 693 10 495 5 500Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m EUR 51 998 50 360 45 421
   months' imports of goods and services 5.4 4.4 5.3
E xternal debt Convertible currenc
y external debt (m EUR ) 183 749 208 822 204 000
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 34 816 37 716 38 748   principal ( m EUR) 26 900 29 358 30 890   interest (m EUR) 7 916 8 358 7 858External debt/GDP (%) 38.4 37.5 36.5External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 232.5 210.7 241.9Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 45.4 40.3 50.6Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none noneDebt relief agreements and rescheduling none none none
Indicators of EU exposure EU ex
posure (capital and interest due ) (m EUR ) 2 285 4 848 4 871
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 22.4 34.5 34.2
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1.2 2.3 2.4EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 1.6 4.0 4.9
IMF arrangements Ty pe SBA SBA none
(Date) (05/08) (until 05/08)
On track yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditwort hiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Ba3 Ba3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- BB-
Euromoney 03/07    09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (b) 72   68 69   76 68   67   (number of countries) 185   185 185   186 186   186
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.
 
 
EN 18   EN 2.2. Potential candidate countries  
2.2.1. Serbia As of the fourth quarter 2008 Serbia became increasingly a ffected by the global economic 
crisis and real GDP growth over the first seme ster 2009 fell to -3.5% year-on-year, down from 
6.0% in 2008. Industrial output was about 17.5% lo wer in the first half  of 2009 compared to 
the same period in 2008. Exports in the second quarter of 2009 were lower by 32% while imports were down by 41% compared to the sa me quarter of 2008. Afte r having increased to 
17% of GDP in 2008, the current account deficit narrowed, mainly due to the drop in imports, 
and was expected to fall down to around 9% of GDP in 2009. Net FDI slowed down in the 
first half of the year and is expected at around 3.3% of GDP in 2009 against 6.0% in 2008. In 
May, the IMF board approved a substantial revi sion of the stand-by arrangement (SBA) that 
was agreed in January 2009. The new SBA allo ws the access to EUR 3 billion funds over 27 
months, of which EUR 770 milli on of EUR 2.1 billion that was planned for 2009, has already 
been drawn in May. Following the commitment in March 2009 of private EU-based parent 
banks to maintain their exposure on Serbia, the roll-over of privat e external debt was expected 
to cover a substantial sh are of external financing needs. After having decreased over the first 
quarter, foreign reserves increased on the back of resuming capital inflows, reaching 
EUR 8.8 billion on 30 June 2009, against EUR 8.1 billion on 31 December 2008. External 
debt increased to 73% of GDP while privat e external debt accounts for 67% of this. 
Country-risk indicators Serbia footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.9 5.5 4.1
Industrial production (% change) 3.7 1.1 -17.5
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 18.8 13.6 15.5
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 6.8 10.9 10.0
Exchange rate (end of period) (CSD per EUR) 79.90 81.44 94.20
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -2.5 -1.0
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 6 432 7 428 5 338
Current account balance (% of GDP) -14.9 -17.6 -7.5Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 2 004 2 363 1 168Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
  m USD 9 641 8 160.4 8 848.8
   months' imports of goods and services 8.6 6.3 8.1
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (m EUR) 17 789 21 801 21 687
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR) 2 140 3 400 941
   principal (m EUR) NA NA NA   interest (m EUR) NA NA NAExternal debt/GDP (%) 61.1 66.6 67.4
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 277 293 23.6
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 33.3 45.8 44.1Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) 1 763 2 161 2 392Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (1) no no
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 812 1 194 1 222
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 8.0 8.5 8.6EU exposure/external debt (%) 4.6 5.5 5.6EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 12.6 16.1 22.9
IMF arrangements Type
-
(Date) -
On track -
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) (2) BB- BB- BB-
Euromoney   03/07  09/07   03/08  09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (b) 87    87 88   126 122   109
   (number of countries) 185   185 185   186 186  186
Footnotes
(1) In November 2001, the Paris Club creditors agreed on a highly concessional two-phased debt restructuring of 66% in NPV terms .
The first phase (51%) became effective in May 2002 when the IMF adopted the new three-year Extended Arrangement (EA); the second phase (15%) will become effective upon successful completion on the EA.
(2) Serbia B+, Montenegro BB.
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.
 
EN 19   EN  
2.3. New Independent States  
2.3.1. Georgia The global financial and economic crisis st rongly affected Georgia and thus further 
exacerbated the economic downturn caused by the m ilitary conflict with Ru ssia that occurred 
in summer 2008. The real GDP declined by 4% in 2009. The economic contraction was 
driven by the decline in domestic demand ca used by tightening in bank credit; fall in 
remittances and in foreign dire ct investment inflows. For 2010, real GDP growth of 2% is 
expected. 
Budget deficit reached to 9.4% of GDP in 2009. An  important share of this deficit was due to 
the contraction of fiscal revenue caused by reces sion. As far as public debt is concerned, with 
the on-set of military and economic  crisis in 2008, the public de bt stopped its declining trend. 
The major part of public debt that was es timated at 25% in 2008  and 36.9% in 2009 is 
external public debt. 
In early November 2008, the authorities allowed th e exchange rate to de preciate against the 
US dollar by around 17%. More recently, seeing consumer inflation decreasing the National 
Bank of Georgia focused on providing sufficient li quidity to the banking system, while at the 
same time intervening to limit the depreciatio n of the lari so as  to support consumer 
confidence.  
The IMF Board approved in mid-Septembe r 2008 an 18-month stand-by arrangement for 
USD 750 million which constitutes exceptional acces s at 300% of Georgia's quota. The third 
programme review under the SBA was approved by the IMF Board on the 6
th of August 2009. 
The main result of this review is the extensi on of the duration of the SBA until June 2011 and 
the increase in the financing package by about USD 424 million. 
The Commission is planning to provide macro- financial assistance to Georgia amounting to 
EUR 46 million in grants. This assistance is pa rt of a comprehensive EU package of up to 
EUR 500 million to support Ge orgia's economic recovery through the global crisis. The EU 
macro-financial assistance will c ontribute to covering Georgia's external financing needs in 
2010 
 
EN 20   EN C ountry-risk indicators G eorgia footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 12.4 2.1 -4.0
Industrial production (% change) 15.0 6.7 n/a
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 13.3 16.5 n/a
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 9.2 10.0 1.8
Exchange rate (end of period) (Lari per USD) 1.59 1.66 n/a
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -4.7 -9.6
(commitments)
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m USD) 3182 3688 2998
Current account balance (% of GDP) -19.6 -22.7 -15.1
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 1562 1523 700
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m USD 1361 1480 2005
   months' imports of goods and services 2.2 3.3 4.1
External debt Convertible currency external public debt (m USD) 1790 2691 3394
  (end of period)  
Convertible currency debt service (m USD) 171 n.a. n/a
   principal (m USD) 131.7 n.a. n/a
   interest (m USD) 38.9 n.a. n/a
External debt/GDP (%) 35.7 42.0 55.1
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 115 146 198
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 11.9 16.0 23.8
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) 0 0 n/a
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling no no n/a
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 65 61 60
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 0.6 0.4 0.4
EU exposure/external debt (%) 5.3 3.1 2.5
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 3.0 2.3 2.8
IMF arrangements Type PRGF Stand-by Stand-b y
(Date) (06/04-06/07) (09/08-03/10) 09/08-06/11
On track yes yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B+ B B
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08    09/08 03/09    09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 114    114 126    88 102   111
  (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) (186)  (186)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 21   EN 2.4. Mediterranean partners 
2.4.1. Jordan Following a strong performance in 2008, GDP growth is predic ted to dip to 3% in 2009. 
Investment is set to fall shar ply driven by a decline in FDI from surrounding Arab States as 
oil earnings have shrunk. The slowdown has affected growth  in a number of sectors, 
particularly construction, real  estate, and export industries. Private consumption growth is 
predicted to slow from 3.8% in 2008 to 2.5%  in 2009 on account of a slackening labour 
market and falling remittances. The government deficit is set to expand to around 12.5% of GDP both on account of a fall in tax reve nue and an increase in capital spending. 
The government aims to cover the expansion of the deficit by increased foreign aid. Despite the slowdown, unemployment is not expected to rise markedly given the large number of migrant workers in the sectors most affected. 
Inflation has been declining si nce the third quarter of 2008 w ith the CPI going into negative 
territory in the second quarter of 2009. Annual average CPI for 2009 is forecast to be 1.7% 
compared to 14.9% in 2008. Both the trade and cu rrent account balance ar e set to narrow. The 
current account deficit is expected to fall fr om 11.9% of GDP in 2008 to around 6.5% of GDP 
in 2009, strongly influenced by the decline in f ood and fuel prices. Jordan's banking sector 
has not been seriously affected by the global economic crisis on account of limited exposure 
to international property and eq uity markets. As a precauti onary measure, government has 
guaranteed all bank depos its until the end of 2009. 
C ountry-risk indicators J ordan footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.6 5.6 3.1
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 13.1 12.7 13.5
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 5.7 9.4 6.7
Exchange rate (end of period) (JOD per  US D) 0.7 0. 7 0.7
 G enera l government balance (% of GDP ) -8.2 -9.9 -12.9
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 6.4 7.2 7
Current account balance (% of GDP) -17.0 -11.9 -6.8
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) ? ? ?
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 7.9 8.9 10.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 8.5 9 10
Ex t er n al d eb t Convertible currenc y external debt (bn USD )
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)
   interest (bn USD)
External debt/GDP (%) 41.5 34.0 32.3
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)
Debt relief agreem ents and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU ex posure (capital and interest due ) (m EUR ) 302 299 286
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 3.0 2.1 2.0
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 6.9 5.8 5.8
IMF arrangem ents Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditwort hiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Baa3 Ba2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB BB BB
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 75   74 74    75 73   69
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) (186)   (186)
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 22   EN 2.4.2. Egypt 
The weathering global crisis is  affecting the economic developm ents in Egypt, mainly via the 
trade channel but also via the channels of the financial markets. As to trade, exports have 
fallen sharply due to falling global demand. As to  the financial markets, in particular the 
Egyptian stock exchange suffered tremendous lo sses since April 2009 when it coupled with 
the stock exchange developments of developi ng countries. Nonetheless, thanks to fiscal 
stimulus packages and the loosening of moneta ry policy the authorities succeeded in keeping 
economic growth positive. 
In fiscal year 2009 economic growth reached 4.7%. Whereas, growth reached 7% on average 
in the three preceding years, business investme nts (including inventories) and exports drove 
down growth in this year. Expectations are th at growth will remain at around 4% in FY10. 
The fiscal stimulus package of more than 1.5% of GDP that was implemented in a reaction to 
the global slowdown is not helping to improve th e fiscal budgetary situ ation. The government 
debt stock is still high and the budget deficit, th at was 7.5% in FY09, will tu rn out to be closer 
to 8% in FY10 although it is stil l pencilled in at 6.9 % by the authorities.  In addition to the 
worsening fiscal stance the privatisation pr ocesses are stalled. The multitude of public 
enterprises remains a drain on the government budget and hampers a proper functioning of the 
internal market. 
Monetary policy is supportive of the economic situation. The exchange rate has been kept in a 
suitable range, with a quasi-fixed peg to fo reign currencies with weights that mimic the 
weights of the composition of the foreign reserves. A positive exte rnality of the global crisis 
is that the trend of soaring consumer prices recently stopped. Consumer  price inflation on an 
annual basis fell to below 10% in the last mont hs. A vulnerability to the Egyptian economy is 
that the expected global upturn in the year 2010 may put again pressu re on prices, crowding 
out purchasing power of consumers and investors.  
C ountry-ris k indicators E gypt footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.1 7.2 4.7
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 9.5 8.5 8.9Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 11.0 11.7 16.2
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (LE p er  EUR) 7.5 8.1 7.6
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -7.5 -7.5 -7.9
Balance of payment
s Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 42.5 56.6 49.0
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.7 0.5 -0.4Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 10.6 7.0 2.8Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 28.6 34.6 31.3
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 6.1 7.5
External debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD) 29.9 33.9 31.5
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD) 9.6 10.9 12.9
   principal (bn USD) 1.2 1.7 3.3   interest (bn USD) 8.4 9.2 9.6External debt/GDP (%) 22.8 20.1 17.0External debt/exports of goods and services (%)Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 0.2 0.2 0.3Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 680 2 141 2 129
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 16.5 15.2 14.9EU exposure/external debt (%) 8.3 8.8 9.5EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 5.8 5.3 6.1
IMF arrangement
s Type -
(Date) -
On track -
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 71      69 68   68 70   70
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) 186   186 
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 23   EN 2.4.3. Lebanon 
The latest economic indicators show a quite r obust performance of the Lebanese economy in 
spite of the global financial crisis. Real GDP growth is expected to top 4% on average in 
2009, still a slowdown from the 8.5%  growth reached in 2008. Lead ing indicators suggest that 
economic activity was picking up in the course of the first half of 2009. This to no small 
degree reflects the fact that th e financial sector proved remarkably resilient to the politically 
uncertain environment. Inflation has fallen, re flecting strong global disinflationary forces.  
The Lebanese economy has so far been quite re silient to the impact of the crisis on the 
banking system.  Lebanese banks have long-standing expe rience in operati ng in a strained 
economic and political environment, have had limited exposure to structured products under 
long-standing prudential directives by the centr al bank supervisors, and have not borrowed 
heavily on international market s – if only because of Lebanon' s impaired investor status. 
Together with a healthy development of the deposit base, a relatively strong reserve position 
(which helped sustain the currency peg to the US dollar as a strong nominal anchor) (8), and 
high liquidity ratios buffering against liquidity s hocks, this has helped shield the financial 
sector. In fact, ongoing deposits  and reserve inflows during 2009 have strengthened buffers. 
The disbursements of IMF financing under EPCA II and the of the first tranche of the grant 
and loan instalments of EU MFA in late  December 2008 (EUR 15 million) and May 2009 
(EUR 25 million) respectively should help stabilis e public finances. Nevertheless, the state of 
Lebanese public finances remains precarious in  view of high debt and deficit ratios. The 
issuance of government bonds is cos tly in view of high interest rate spreads, whereas the large 
dependence on the domestics banking sector to pl ace debt is a burden on the diversification of 
the financial sector. 
                                                 
8 The dollar rate of deposits is very high in Lebanon, hovering around 70% in 2008. 
 
EN 24   EN Country-risk indicators Lebanon footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 2.6 8.5 4.5
Industrial production (period average) (% change) n.a. n.a n.a
Unemployment rate (average) (% of labour force)      (a) n.a. n.a n.a
Inflation rate (CPI, av) (% change) 4.1 10.8 0.3
Exchange rate (av) (L£ per USD) 1508 1508 1508
G eneral government overall balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -10.0 -10.5
Primary balance (% of GDP) 1.8 1.4 1.3
T otal government debt (% of GDP) 168 162 151
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services (m USD) 4 077 5 259              n.a.
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -11.4 -9.5
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 1.875 2.608              n.a.
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (gross useable)
   m USD 17 417 25 094            n.a.
   months' imports of goods and services 4.9 8.1 n.a.
External debt Convertible currency external debt (m USD)  21 221 21 550            
  (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m USD) 1 511         1 534              
   principal (m USD) n.a. n.a
   interest (m USD) n.a. n.a
Foreign currency debt/GDP (%) 84 n.a
External debt/GDP (%) 194 187.0              187.0       
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 576 472                 
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 41 33.6
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) n.a. n.a
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) n.a. n.a
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 354 508 545
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) 3.5 3.6 3.8
EU exposure/external debt (%) 2.5 3.3 N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 12.8 13.5 N/A
IMF arrangements Type (1) - EPCA II
(Date) - adopted 3-11
On track - (concluded June 2009)
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B3 B 3 B2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B- B- B-
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 111    116 127   134 111    116
  (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) 186   186
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 25   EN 2.4.4. Tunisia 
The impact of the global crisis is increasingly being felt in Tunisia, especially in exporting 
industries. Real GDP growth in  the first quarter of 2009 was - 2.0% quarter-on-quarter, driven 
by a decline across a broad range of industrie s. The fall in economic activity was most 
pronounced in engineering and in the textile in dustry, as the effects of the slump in major 
Tunisian export markets were being felt. Exports  to the EU, which accoun ts for nearly 80% of 
Tunisian exports, were particularly affecte d. But production volumes also decreased against 
the previous quarter in transport and communicati ons and in business services. For the year as 
a whole modest growth of 2% is projected, pr emised on the upturn in the world economy that 
is taking shape. This would lead to a recovery  in Tunisian and expor ts. The slowdown in the 
first part of 2009 followed a relatively robust performance of the Tunisian economy for 2008 
when real GDP growth reached 5%, against 6.3% in 2007. Consumer price inflation peaked at 
6.0% year-on-year in April 2008 and moderated subsequently, to around 4% in the thrid 
quarter of 2009. As elsewhere in the region, a sh arp pick-up and subse quent deceleration in 
food and energy prices was the ma in determinant of overall in flation trends in 2008 and 2009. 
The cushioning of the initial several commodity  price shocks in the first half of 2008 via 
transfers and subsidies helped stabilize inflation but did imply an additional fiscal burden. 
In response to the crisis, the government annou nced measures to support exporting companies 
(in particular export guarantees and less stringent excha nge restrictions),  to increase 
investment incentives, to reduce social security contributions for affected companies, and to 
facilitate access to finance for SMEs. Easier  monetary policy suppo rted the economy via 
lower policy interest rates and a reduction in reserve requirements. 
As regards fiscal policy, the government deficit reached a better-than-expected 
deficit of 1.2% of GDP, with figures s uggesting a slowdown of tax revenues and 
expenditure compared to the previous year. For 2009 a higher defici t of nearly 4% of 
GDP is foreseen. The 2009 budget foresees a 20% increase in public infrastructure 
expenditure to partly offset the expected  decrease in private investment. The public 
debt ratio is forecast to increase sligh tly, to 48.5% of GDP, from 47.5% of GDP in 
2008. Over the medium term, the authoritie s have expressed continued commitment 
to fiscal consolidation and debt reduction.  
 
EN 26   EN C ountry-risk indicators Tunisia footnotes 2007 2008 2009
forecast
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.3 5.0 2.5             
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 14.1 14.0 14.3Consumer price inflation (average) (% change) 3.1 5.1 3.8
Exchange rate (end of period) (TD per USD) 1.27 1.31 na
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -1.2 -3.8
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 15.0 19.2 na
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -4.2 -3Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD)
? 1.6 1.9 Na
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 7.9 8.9 10.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 4.6 4.1 4.2
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)
   interest (bn USD)
External debt/GDP (%) 54.9 51.8 51.2External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 123.3 96.4 naDebt service/exports of goods and services (%) 13 9.9 na
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 10 185 14 047 14 245
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 15.3 12.0 12.4
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 15.3 12.2 N/A
IMF arrangements Type
- -
(Date) - -
On track - -
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B a Baa2 Baa2 Baa2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B BBBB (stable) BBB (stable) BBB (stable)
Euromoney 03/07  03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09   09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 62    64 62    64   53       52
   (number of countries) (185)  (185)    (185) (185)) (186)   186    186
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.(a) Officially registered unemployed. 
 
EN 27   EN 2.4.5. Morocco 
Following strong growth in 2008, GDP Growth is set to slow to around 2.5% in 2009 as the 
Moroccan economy feels the impact of the global  economic crisis. In the first half of 2009, 
exports fell by 32.2% and tourism revenue by 11.1%. Remittances (amounting to nearly 10% 
of GDP) declined by 12.1%, this tendency re flects the worsening employment situation in 
Europe. Offsetting some of the negative impact  of the global economic crisis, the agricultural 
sector continued to grow strongly, by 17% in the first quarter of 2009. The government has 
also proceeded with an extensive social hous ing programme providing a boost to investment. 
After registering a mild surplus in 2008, the ge neral government balance is likely to turn 
negative in 2009 mainly on account of lower tax revenues from slowing economic activity. The government has targeted a deficit of 2.9% of GDP for 2009 which appears achievable 
given the budgetary outturn to date. The budget ran a modest surplus in Q1 2009 pointing to 
the possibility of a better-than-targeted out turn for the whole year. Unemployment has 
continued to fall to 8% mainly on account  of hiring in the agricultural sector. 
Since the end of 2008, the CPI has been gra dually declining driven  by a reversal in 
commodity prices and slowing economy activity. The CPI turned negative in June 2009 and is 
likely to be around 2% on average for 2009 from  3.9% in 2008. The current exchange rate 
regime is tightly managed against a euro-dominated basked of currencies. The authorities 
have taken gradual steps to lessen currency c ontrols with the aim of introducing a fully 
floating currency in the future. The current acco unt deficit is expected to narrow in 2009 to 
around -4% of GDP due to  a marked improvement in the trade balance influenced by lower 
oil and wheat prices.  
C ountry-risk indicators Morocco footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 3.2 6.2 2.6
Unemployment (average) (% of labour force) (a) 9.8 9.5 9.1
Wholesale price Inflation (average) (% change) 2.0 3.8 2
Exchange rate (end of period) (MDH per USD) 7.7 8.1 7.85
 G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 0.2 0.4 -1.1
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 24.4 23.2 21.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -6.6 -4.2Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) ? ?                         
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 24.7 22.7 21.5
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 10.0 9 8.8
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (bn USD)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bn USD)
   principal (bn USD)
   interest (bn USD)External debt/GDP (%) 26.8 22.5 22.2
External debt/exports of goods and services (%)
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD)
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 275 1 929 2 014
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (1) 12.5 13.7 14.1
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 7.7 11.6 13.2
IMF arrangements Type --
(Date) --
On track --
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+Euromoney 03/07    09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 65     65 66      63 63    54
   (number of countries) (185)    (185) (185)   (186) 186    186 
Sources: International Monetary Fund.
Footnotes
(1) (2)  See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
(a) Officially registered unemployed.  
 
EN 28   EN 2.5. Other countries 
2.5.1. South Africa A sharp decline in external demand and a slump in commodity prices have pushed the 
economy into its first recession since 1992. Sout h Africa's economy will likely contract by 
about 2% in 2009, but recover next year, suppor ted mainly by a strong counter-cyclical policy 
response and a global recovery. The central ba nk has cut its policy rate by 450 bps since the 
start of the year, to the current  level of 7.0%, but the scope for further easing may have been 
exhausted if inflation is to be brought within the target range (3%-6%) by end-2010. The 
expansionary fiscal stance is appropriate gi ven the weak economic outlook, and strikes the 
right balance between supporti ng demand and preserving medi um-term sustainability. If 
output turns out weaker than e xpected, the automatic stabiliser s should be allowed to operate, 
but spending growth would need to be mode rated further when the economy recovers, in 
order to stabilize medium-term public debt at a prudent level. There are risks to the medium-
term fiscal position, particularly if complementary reforms to improve public service delivery and enhance efficiency in infrastructure provisi on are delayed. One can expect though that the 
government will respect their intention of ke eping debt levels below 50% of GDP. The 
current account deficit was relatively high, fina nced by quite volatile capital inflows (mainly 
portfolio investments). The defi cit has come down in the first three quarters in 2009 as the 
weak internal demand caused the drop in imports  to exceed export decline. Concerns about 
financing have receded in line with a resumption of net capital inflows, but South Africa remains vulnerable to a sudden reversals. The curre nt account deficit is expected to rise again 
with an economic recovery. In the near term, the key challeng e for macroeconomic policies is 
to strike the right balance between supporting domestic demand and maintaining domestic 
and external stability. A strong push for stru ctural reforms to address the long standing 
barriers to growth and employ ment is urgently needed also to improve macroeconomic 
stability.
 
South Africa's financial system is resilient. Wh en the global financial crisis intensified last 
year, South African money markets remained or derly and the country's financial institutions 
were stable. Interbank interest  rate volatility remained with in normal bounds in late 2008 and 
early 2009, reflecting generally ad equate market liquidity. Sout h African banks' low leverage, 
high profitability, and limited exposure to foreig n assets and funding allowed them to remain 
liquid and well capitalised, obviati ng any need for extraordinary liquidity or state support. 
 
EN 29   EN C ountry-risk indicator s So u t h  Af r ica footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.1 3.1 -1.9
Industrial production (% change) 5.8 4.5 -13.0
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 22.7 21.9 24.9Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 7.1 11.5 7.2
Exchange rate (end of period) (SAR per EUR) 10.04 12.08 8.60
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 0.8 -0.7 -4.4
Balance of payments Exports of goods and services in bn US $ 89.2 97.9 81.3
Exports of goods and services (m EUR) 65074 66562 58986
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.3 -7.4 -5.1
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m EUR) 14
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) $33,0bn $34,1bn $35,8bn
   m EUR 45234 50154 49343
   months' imports of goods and services 3.7 4.6 4.5
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (m EUR)
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (m EUR)
   principal (m EUR)   interest (m EUR)External debt to official creditors/GDP (%) 1.8 1.6 1.7External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 78.4 80
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%)
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m EUR) none none none
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling none none none
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 666 636 624
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 6.5 4.5 4.4EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/AEU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 1.0 1.0 1.1
IMF arrangements Type none none none
(Date)On track
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditworthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)Baa1 Baa1 Baa1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Euromoney 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (b) 55    55 55    54   50     47
   (number of countries) 185   185 185   186 186     186
 
 
EN 30   EN 2.5.2. Mexico 
For 2009, Mexico forecasts to experience its deepest contraction in  decades with GDP 
contracting by around 7.3%. Thereby, it is one of the countries to be hit hardest by the global 
economic and financial crisis. Mexico's budgetary  leeway depends for a significant part on oil 
revenues, with 30% – 40% of fiscal revenues coming from oil proceeds. Not only the falling 
oil price was detrimental to the government's possibilities but oil pr oduction has declined 
since its peak in 2006 and is expected to declin e further. In the worst scenario, oil production 
may end within a decade but this depends on the reform of the state oil company and further 
investments. 
Because of the limited possibilities for economic stimulus through fiscal policy, monetary 
policy actions were a crucial pa rt of the response to the crisis. The Mexican central bank 
lowered its reference rate from 8.25% to 4.5% between the January 2009 and July 2009. The IMF expects inflation in Mexi co to fall in 2009 (4.3%) and fa ll further in 2010 (4.1%) but to 
remain above the medium term target. 
Mexico has been runn ing current account deficits for severa l years and is expe cted to continue 
into 2010. The current account deficits have b een of limited size, howev er, averaging 0.8% of 
GDP. In April of this year, Mexico was one of  the countries to recei ve access to a Flexible 
Credit Line (FCL) of the IMF amounting to US D 47 billion. This has helped the country in 
stabilizing the exchange rate after a real effective deprecia tion of 20.6% (37.6% against the 
USD) between September 2008 an d March 2009. The currency rate  is expected to remain 
stable. The banking sector has weathered the fi nancial crisis relatively well compared with 
more advanced economies. 
Co u n t r y - r isk  in d ica t o r s Mexico footnotes 2007 2008 2009
General indicators Real GDP growth rate (%) 3.3 1.3 -7.3
Industrial production (% change) 2.4 -0.9 -7.9
Unemployment (end of period) (% of labour force) 3.7 4.0 5.0Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 3.8 6.5 4.3
Exchange rate (end of period) (MXN per USD) 10.9 13.5 13.5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -1.4 -1.8 -4.9
(commitments)
Balance of payment
s Exports of goods and services (bln USD) 271.9 291.3 232.4
Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.8 -1.4 -1.2
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bln USD) 18.9 18.2 15.7
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bln USD 87.2 95.3 95.3
   months' imports of goods and services 3.1 4.2 4.1
Ext ernal debt Convertible currency external debt (bln USD) 193.1 200.4 202.5
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service (bln USD) 43.5 57.2
   principal (bln USD)
   interest (bln USD)External debt/GDP (%) 18.8 18.2 24.5
External debt/exports of goods and services (%) 64.1 99.7
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 14.3 21.7Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling
Indicators of EU exposure EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 96.5 77.4 74.6
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%) (a) 0.95 0.55 0.52
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0.07 0.05 0.05EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0.05 0.04 0.05
IMF arrangement
s Type PRGF PRGF Stand-by
(Date) (06/04-06/07) (06/04-06/07) (09/08-03/10)
On track yes yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of 
creditw orthiness Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B+ B+ B
Euromoney 03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 03/09    09/09
   Position in the ranking (b) 52   50 51    48 48   50
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (185) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes.