EN    EN  EUROPEAN COMMISSION 
Brussels, 20.10.2010 
SEC(2010) 1218 final 
  
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
accompanying the 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIA MENT AND THE COUNCIL 
 
on guarantees covered by the general budget  
situation at 31 December 2009  
COM(2010)580 
EN 2   EN COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
accompanying the 
  
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIA MENT AND THE COUNCIL 
 
on guarantees covered by the general budget  
situation at 31 December 2009  
EN 3   EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1. Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the Budget ............................. 4 
1.1. Tables A1 and A2......................................................................................................... 4  
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) ..................................................................................... 4 1.1.2. Capital outstanding (Table A1).................................................................................... 5 1.1.3. Annual risk (Table A2) ................................................................................................ 5 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee ...................................................... 8 1.3. Evolution of risk......................................................................................................... 12 
1.3.1. Situation of loans to non euro area Member States.................................................... 12 1.3.2. Situations of loans to third countries.......................................................................... 13 1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees ....................................................................... 14 1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations.................................................................................... 14 1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties................................................................................ 15 1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees................................................................................ 16 2. Country-risk evaluation.............................................................................................. 17 2.1. Candidate countries.................................................................................................... 18 
2.1.1. Turkey .................................................................................................................. ...... 18 
2.2. Potential candidate countries...................................................................................... 20 2.2.1. Serbia.................................................................................................................. ........ 20 
2.3. Mediterranean partners............................................................................................... 22 2.3.1. Jordan .................................................................................................................. ....... 22 
2.3.2. Egypt ................................................................................................................... ....... 24 
2.3.3. Lebanon................................................................................................................. ..... 26 
2.3.4. Tunisia................................................................................................................. ....... 28 
2.3.5. Morocco ................................................................................................................. .... 30 
2.3.6. Syria ................................................................................................................... ........ 31 
2.4. Other countries........................................................................................................... 32 
2.4.1. South Africa ............................................................................................................ ... 32 
2.4.2. Brazil.................................................................................................................. ........ 35 
EN 4   EN 1. E XPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE BUDGET  
1.1. Tables A1 and A2 
The purpose of Tables A1 and A2 is to show the outstanding amount and annual repayments of 
capital and interest in respect of borrowing and lending operations fo r which the risk is covered by 
the Budget. The figures show the maximum possible risk for the EU in respect of these operations 
and must not be read as meani ng that these amounts will actually be drawn from the Fund or the 
Budget. 
1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table A1) 
This is the aggregate of the maximum amounts of  capital authorised (cei lings) for each operation 
decided by the Council or by the Eur opean Parliament and the Council. 
In order to relate it to the risk which the Budget might have to cove r, account should be taken of the 
following factors which could affect it: 
Factor increasing the risk: 
• the interest on the loan s must be added to the authorised ceiling. 
Factors reducing the risk: 
• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB1: 
75% of the total amounts of lo ans signed in the Mediterran ean countries based on the 
Mediterranean protocols of 1977 and Counc il Regulations 1762/92/EEC and 1763/92/EEC. 
70% of the total amounts of loan s signed as part of lending ope rations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 96/ 723/EC, 97/256/EC, 98/348/EC and 98/729/EC and a 
sharing of risk between the EU and the EIB as the Budget guarantee covers only political risks in 
some cases; 
65% of the total amounts of loans signed as part of financing operations with certain non-Member 
States authorised by Council Decisions 99/786/ EC, 2000/24/EC and Decision 2009/633/EC of the 
European Parliament and of the Council, and a shar ing of risk between the EU and the EIB as the 
Budget guarantee covers only political risks in some cases, as regards the two first-mentioned 
decisions, and only risks of a polit ical or sovereign nature in the case of the last decision; 
• operations already repaid, since the amounts c oncerned are the maximum amounts of capital 
authorised (ceilings) and not outstanding amounts; 
• the ceilings are not necessarily taken up in full. 
Another factor to be considered is that some loan s are disbursed in currenci es other than the EUR. 
Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the ceiling may be exceeded when the amounts disbursed up to 
the date of the report are converted into EUR. 
                                                 
1 Within each portfolio individual EIB loans are, de fact o, guaranteed at 100% until the global ceiling is reached. 
EN 5   EN 1.1.2. Capital outstanding (Table A1) 
This is the amount of cap ital still to be repaid on  a given date in respect of operations disbursed. 
Compared with the previous aggregate, the am ount outstanding does not include loans which have 
not yet been disbursed or the proportion of disbursed loans wh ich have already been repaid. 
1.1.3. Annual risk (Table A2) 
Estimated amount of principal and interest due each financial year by each country according to 
disbursements made until 31 December 20092. 
                                                 
2 For the purpose of this calculation, it is assumed th at defaulting loans are not accelerated, i.e. only due 
payments are taken into account. 
EN 6   EN Authorised Capital Capital Remainder
Operations ceiling outstanding at outstanding at to be disbursed
30.06.2009 31.12.2009 at 31.12.2009
MEMBER STATES  
EIB (Member States )  3 659 3 533 766
MFA to Bul garia and Romania  115 90
Euratom to Bul garia and Romania  431 427
BoP1 
Hungary 6 500 4 000 5 500 1 000
Latvia 3 100 1 000 2 200 900Romania 5 000 1 500 3 500
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL  9 205 13 250 6 166
THIRD COUNTRIESA. Macro-Financial Assistance
Albania 9 9 9
Bosnia-Herze go v i n a 4 04 04 0
F Y R O M 9 08 27 7Geor
gia 142 58 36
Lebanon 50 25 25 25Serbia and Montene
gro 280 280 280
Taji k i s t a n 7 52 82 8
Ukraine 260 15 0
Sub total MFA  946  536  495  50
B. EURATOM2  50  54  9
C. Other
EIB Pre-Accession countries 28 755 5 487 6 333 5 440EIB Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 28 342 5 930 6 641 4 604
EIB Asia and Latin America 8 205 1 659 2 049 1 311
EIB South Africa 2 400  583  667  497
Sub total EIB367 702 17 318 19 224 12 618
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL 68 648 14 245 16 239 11 911GRAND TOTAL 68 648 23 450 29 489 18 076
(1) By Decision 431/2008/EC of 18 May 2009 the Council decided to increase the ceiling from EUR 25 000 million to EUR 50 000 mi llion.
(3) The subtotal EIB includes the EIB loans to Member States.  
Credit line Loans made Amounts Amounts
Operations authorised available minus disbursed outstanding 
cancellations at 31.12.2009
Mandate 2007/2013: 25 800 11 928 3 044 3 041Pre-Accession countries
8 700 5 262 1 077 1 077
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries: 12 400 4 262 1 137 1 137
Mediterranean 8 700 3 860 1 022 1 022
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia 3 700  403  115  115
Asia and Latin America: 3 800 1 921  787  785
Asia 1 000  616  93  93
Latin America 2 800 1 305  694  692
South Africa  900  483  42  42
Previous General Mandate 2000/20076: 20 060 19 384 14 702 11 905
Pre-Accession countries 10 235 7 338 5 447 4 856
Neighbourhood and Partnershi p countries 6 520 6 325 4 829 4 034
Asia and Latin America 2 480 2 135 1 659 992
South Africa 825 824 616 514
Member States (followin g the accession )52 762 2 151 1 508
sub-total 65 %445 860 31 312 17 746 14 946
Financial agreements (70% Guarantee rate) 7 477 6 513 5 997 2 606
Pre-Accession countries 3 770  477  449  298
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 2 310 1 617 1 492  632
Asia and Latin America: 1 022  809  657  154
South Africa  375  375  265  105
Member States (followin g the accession )53 236 3 134 1 417
sub-total 70 %47 477 6 513 5 997 2 606
Financial agreements (75% Guarantee rate) 7 712 7 062 7 176  851
Pre-Accession countries 1 350  713  719  95
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries 6 362 4 492 4 499  688
Member States (followin g the accession )51 857 1 958  67
sub-total 75 %47 712 7 062 7 176  851
Financial agreements (100% Guarantee rate) 6 653 5 320 5 209  821Pre-Accession countries
4 700  29  29  7
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries  750  315  159  150
Asia and Latin America  903  710  714  119
South Africa  300  285  203  5
Member States (followin g the accession )53 982 4 104  540
sub-total 100 %46 653 5 320 5 209  821
Total  67 702 50 207 36 127 19 224
(4) Percentage figures relate to the Guarantee rate.
(6) Including Turkey Terra and Special Action Turkey.(5) Loans to Member States were drawn from 'Pre-Accession c ountries' or from 'Neighbourhood an d Partnership countries' ceilings .TABLE A1: CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPERATIONS DISBURSED at 31.12.2009 (in EUR million)
(2) The overall ceiling is EUR 4 000 million for loans to Member States and to certain non-member States. 
ANNEX TO TABLE A1: SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS at 31.12.2009 (in EUR million)
EN 7   EN Ranking Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 until 2039 Total Outstanding
1 Turkey  343.9  343.6  376.9  381.8  405.5  395.5  331.0 3 126.6 5 704.7
2 Romania  279.6  318.4  264.9  264.1  244.7 1 743.8  174.1  916.1 4 205.7
3 Egypt  202.8  198.3  191.4  187.3  171.0  170.3  170.3  949.3 2 240.74 Hungary  196.3 2 209.0  141.7  132.9 2 128.4  63.0 1 558.8  2.1 6 432.2
5 Morocco  152.2  160.3  164.1  167.0  163.7  152.6  139.8 1 124.2 2 224.0
6 Tunisia  149.1  148.9  153.5  158.8  155.1  149.2  138.4  846.6 1 899.6
7 South Africa  89.3  65.9  81.9  57.3  59.4  53.5  61.1  274.2  742.5
8 Bulgaria  88.0  73.7  86.5  71.9  72.4  69.0  66.6  250.3  778.59 Czech Republic  82.0  73.0  70.5  67.9  56.4  45.7  43.7  86.3  525.5
10 Poland  80.5  77.8  75.3  69.6  53.0  43.0  29.4  112.9  541.5
11 Lebanon  70.6  73.6  74.3  73.1  55.2  48.7  41.8  101.4  538.8
12 Slovak Republic  65.6  66.0  51.0  37.2  25.8  15.1  14.7  101.4  376.8
13 Brazil  63.1  46.9  41.2  68.8  91.5  197.9  175.1  6.8  691.214 Serbia  61.5  68.2  112.7  114.6  122.0  174.2  122.9  541.9 1 317.9
15 Latvia  60.2  75.4  73.9  73.8 1 073.7 1 242.3  4.0  9.8 2 613.0
16 Syria  56.9  72.6  73.6  71.2  70.5  72.9  70.2  275.0  762.8
17 Jordan  44.2  42.4  40.9  34.5  30.0  23.0  20.9  133.0  368.8
18 Bosnia and Herzegovina  34.0  36.3  60.6  33.8  33.1  74.6  30.0  170.2  472.519 Croatia  32.1  40.7  43.6  43.7  40.4  38.6  37.9  264.5  541.4
20 Russia  26.4  22.4  24.9  24.9  24.9  24.9  16.1  28.0  192.5
21 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia  24.8  28.2  31.0  27.7  29.7  26.1  24.3  59.9  251.6
22 Mexico  22.9  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  9.6  51.7
23 Argentina  22.8  22.7  19.7  43.9  35.3  34.1  29.1  80.1  287.624 Georgia  22.4  13.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  36.0
25 Slovenia  20.8  14.3  11.4  9.4  7.4  4.4  2.1  0.0  69.9
26 Indonesia  18.3  14.6  12.6  12.6  12.6  12.6  8.6  21.9  113.9
27 Albania  14.5  14.6  16.0  14.0  16.8  17.3  16.7  113.4  223.2
28 Vietnam  14.4  14.6  14.6  14.4  14.3  9.3  8.0  19.4  108.829 the Philippines  12.9  12.7  12.9  13.2  14.3  12.1  10.9  20.2  109.2
30 Pakistan  11.8  11.7  11.7  8.9  6.1  6.1  4.2  8.7  69.3
31 Israel  10.6  12.6  12.6  12.8  13.0  11.3  9.9  131.5  214.3
32 Peru  10.2  17.2  18.1  17.9  14.5  14.5  12.1  17.6  122.1
33 Cyprus  9.7  9.3  7.2  4.7  3.1  0.0  0.0  0.0  34.034 China  8.2  7.4  6.7  6.8  7.0  7.1  2.7  18.6  64.5
35 Ukraine  7.3  7.0  6.9  6.9  6.8  11.2  11.2  68.3  125.6
36 Lithuania  5.7  5.5  5.3  5.1  5.0  4.8  4.6  13.3  49.2
37 Thailand  4.8  4.4  6.1  8.3  2.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  25.6
38 Bangladesh  4.7  4.7  4.7  4.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  18.739 Colombia  4.7  12.4  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  32.2  125.9
40 India  4.1  3.2  8.2  16.8  13.6  13.6  13.6  15.9  89.2
41 The West Bank and the Gaza Strip  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.8  3.7  5.5  32.0
42 Sri Lanka  3.8  4.7  7.7  10.4  13.5  15.2  12.6  53.1  120.9
43 Costa Rica  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.5  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  14.244 Maldives  3.1  4.4  5.2  5.2  5.2  5.2  5.2  11.9  45.2
45 Malaysia  3.0  1.8  1.8  0.9  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  7.4
46 Montenegro  2.9  3.5  10.0  10.2  12.1  13.0  13.1  61.7  126.5
47 Panama  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  2.4  16.6  33.2
48 Uruguay  2.4  3.0  3.4  4.1  4.5  3.7  3.7  1.9  26.749 Ecuador  2.1  3.9  3.9  3.9  3.9  3.9  3.9  9.9  35.7
50 El Salvador  2.0  1.9  0.9  1.3  1.2  1.2  0.8  4.2  13.6
51 Estonia  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.5
52 Malta  0.7  0.7  0.7  0.3  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.3
53 Tadjikistan  0.3  0.3  12.2  12.1  4.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  28.954 Republic of Moldova  0.2  0.1  0.1  0.2  0.4  1.0  0.9  6.8  9.8
55 Paraguay  0.0  3.5  6.9  6.9  6.9  6.9  3.5  0.0  34.8
56 Laos  0.0  0.2  0.4  0.5  0.5  0.6  0.6  34.4  37.2
Total outstanding 2 465.0 4 486.0 2 490.9 2 446.2 5 355.2 5 057.6 3 473.8 10 157.2 35 931.7
Member States 890.1 2 924.1 788.9 736.9 3 669.9 3 231.0 1 897.9 1 492.2 15 631.0Table A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget in EUR million based on the amounts (capital and interest) due under all operat ions (MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) 
disbursed at 31.12.2009
 
EN 8   EN 1.2. Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee  
Tables A3a, A3b(1), A3b(2) and A4 
Instrument Decision Date of Loan Guarantee Maturity Loan Amount Outstanding Outstanding
decision term Rate Date situation decided amount amount
(years)  - closed (a) at 30.06.2009 at 31.12.2009
 - partially disbursed (b) in EUR million in EUR million - disbursed in full (c) - not yet disbursed (d)
BOP
2009/431/EC 8/05/2009 100% (b) 50 000.00 5 000.00 9 200.00
Hungary 2009/102/EC 4/11/2008 (b) 6 500.00 4 000.00 5 500.00
1st tranche 9/12/2008 3 9/12/2011 (c) 2 000.00 2 000.00
2nd tranche 26/03/2009 5.6 7/11/2014 (c) 2 000.00 2 000.00
3 rd tranche 6/07/2009 6.8 6/04/2016 (c) 1 500.00
Latvia 2009/290/EC 20/01/2009 (b) 3 100.00 1 000.00 2 200.00
1st tranche 25/02/2009 5.1 3/04/2014 (c) 1 000.00 1 000.00
2nd tranche 27/07/2009 5.5 27/01/2015 (c) 1 200.00
Romania 2009/459/EC 6/05/2009 (b) 5 000.00 1 500.00
1st tranche 27/07/2009 5.5 27/01/2015 (c) 1 500.00
EURATOM  100% 4 000.00  430.50  426.75
77/270-271/Euratom 29/03/1977 (c)  500.00
80/29/Euratom 20/12/1979 (c)  500.00
82/170/Euratom 15/03/1982 (c) 1 000.0085/537/Euratom 5/12/1985 (c) 1 000.0090/212/Euratom 23/04/1990 (b) 1 000.00
Bulgaria  212.50
     1st tranche 20 10/05/2021 (c)  40.00  40.00
     2nd tranche 15 15/01/2017 (c)  12.00  11.25     3rd tranche 17 19/08/2019 (c)  25.00  25.00     4th tranche 15 18/06/2018 (c)  22.50  21.25     5th tranche 15 16/01/2019 (c)  35.00  33.25     6th tranche 16 10/09/2020 (c)  30.00  30.00     7th tranche 16 4/04/2021 (c)  25.00  25.00     8th tranche 14 23/02/2020 (c)  17.50  17.50Romania  223.50
     1st tranche 17 21.07.2022 (c)  100.00  100.00
     2nd tranche 19 26.11.2024 (c)  90.00  90.00     3rd tranche 18 23.02.2024 (c)  33.50  33.50
TOTAL 54 000.00 5 430.50 9 626.75 TABLE A3a
BoP and Euratom lending operations to Member States 
Period 30.06.2009 to 31.12.2009
 
EN 9   EN TABLE A3b (1)
 European Union (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States*
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 30.06.2009 to 31.12.2009, broken down by countries and tranche
* Member States as of 01.01.2007 in EUR million 
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 30.06.2009 Amounts Amounts at 31.12.2009
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)
    BULGARIA IV* 99/731/EC 08.11.99 100.00
     1st tranche 10 21.12.2009 (c) 40.00 10.00 10.00 0.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 60.00 30.00 15.00 15.00
    ROMANIA IV* 99/732/EC 08.11.99 200.00   
     1st tranche 10 29.06.2010 (c) 100.00 25.00 25.00
     2nd tranche 10 17.07.2013 (c) 50.00 50.00 50.00
     3rd tranche  - - ( a ) 50.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA I 99/325/EC 10.05.99 20.00
     1st tranche 15 22.12.2014 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche -- ( c ) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA II 02/883/EC 09.11.02  20.00
     1st tranche 15 16.01.2019 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 09.02.2021 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
    FYROM I 97/471/EC 22.07.97 40.00
     1st tranche 15 27.09.2012 (c) 25.00 20.00 5.00 15.00
     2nd tranche 15 13.02.2013 (c) 15.00 12.00 12.00
    FYROM II 99/733/EC 08.11.99 50.00
     1st tranche 15 15.01.2016 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 30.01.2017 (c) 12.00 12.00 12.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.06.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     4th tranche 15 23.12.2018 (c) 18.00 18.00 18.00
 
EN 10   EN TABLE A3b (2)  
 European Union (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Chan ges in amounts outstandin g durin g six-month period 30.06.2009 to 31.12.2009, broken down b y countries and tranche
in EUR million
   COUNTRY Decision Date Loan Expiry Loan Amount Amount Operations in Amount
of decision term date situation decided outstanding six-month period outstanding
(years)  - closed (a) at 30.06.2009 Amounts Amounts at 31.12.2009
 - partially disbursed (b) disbursed repaid
 - disbursed in full (c) - not yet disbursed (d)
  UKRAINE III 98/592/EC 15.10.98 150.00
     1st tranche 10 30.07.2009 (c) 58.00 14.50 14.50 0.00
-- ( a ) 92.00
  UKRAINE IV 2002/639/EC 12.07.02 (d) 110.00
  GEORGIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 24.07.2013 (c) 110.00 57.50 22.00 35.50
  ARMENIA 97/787/EC 17.11.97 15 30.12.2013 (a) 28.00
  TAJIKISTAN 2000/244/EC 20.03.00 (b) 75.00
     1st tranche 15 30.03.2016 (c) 60.00 28.00 28.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2001/549/EC 16.07.01 15 17.10.2016 (c) 225.00 225.00 225.00
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2002/882/EC 09.11.02 55.00
     1st tranche 15 28.02.2018 (c) 10.00 10.00 10.00
     2nd tranche 15 01.09.2018 (c) 30.00 30.00 30.00
     3rd tranche 15 04.05.2020 (c) 15.00 15.00 15.00
ALBANIA 2004/580/EC 29.04.04 15 23.03.2021 (c) 9.00 9.00 9.00
LEBANON 2007/860/EC 21.12.07 04.06.2014 (b) 50.00 25.00 25.00
UKRAINE (Euratom) 94/179/EC 21.03.94 11 15.03.2018 (b) EUR equivalent 49.55 53.91
15.03.2007 (c) 39.00 EUR 35.10 1.95 33.1506.10.2008 (c) 22.00 USD 14.45 0.80 13.66
15.10.2009 (c) 10.34 USD 7.10 7.10
of USD 83 million
TOTAL  750.11 7.10 69.25 638.41
 
EN 11   EN TABLE A4 LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB in EUR million 
Date Rate Date of Amount Loans signed Amount outstanding
Geographical Area Decision of decision of guarantee guarantee decided         (minus cancellations)
contract at 30.06.09 at 31.12.09 at 30.06.09 at 31.12.09
MED. Financial protocols(1) 8.03.77 75% (2) 30.10.78/10.11.78 6 062 5 548 5 548  615  494
MED. Horizontal cooperation 1762/92/EEC 29.06.92 75% (2) 09.11.92/18.11.92 1 800 1 656 1 656  340  357
TOTAL MED. (3) 7 862 7 204 7 204  955  851
C and E Europe I 90/62/EEC(4) 12.02.90 100% 24.04.90/14.05.90 1 000  912  912  102  90
91/252/EEC(5) 14.05.91 100% 19.01.93/04.02.93  700  493  493  5  2
C and E Europe II 93/696/EC(6) 13.12.93 100% 22.07.94/12.08.94 3 000 2 464 2 464  507  455
Asia, Latin America I 93/115/EEC 15.02.93 100% 04.11.93/17.11.93  750  571  571  125  114
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 100% 18.03.97/26.03.97  153  139  139  5  5
Asia, Latin America Interim 96/723/EC 12.12.96 70% 21.10.97  122  122  122  9  7
South Africa 95/207/EC 01.06.95 100% 04.10.95/16.10.95  300  285  285  12  5
New mandates 97/256/EC(7) 14.04.97 70% 25.07.97/29.07.97 7 105 6 142 6 142 2 578 2 421
FYROM 98/348/EC 19.05.98 70% 29.07.98/07.08.98  150  150  150  112  107
Bosnia and Herzegovina 98/729/CE 14.12.98 70% 16.06.99/22.06.99  100  100  100  55  71
Turkey Terra 99/786/EC 29.11.99 65% 18.04.00/23.05.00  600  600  600  526  515
Mandates 2000-2007 2000/24/EC(8) 22.12.99 65% 19.07.00/24.07.00 (11) 19 460 18 910 18 784 11 058 11 390
The Baltic Sea basin of Russia 2001/777/EC(9) 06.11.01 100% 06.05.02/07.05.02  100  85  85  77  74
Russia, Belarus, Rep. Of Moldova and 
Ukraine2005/48/EC(10) 22.12.04 100% 21.12.05/09.12.05  500  230  230  3  76
Mandate 2007-2013 2006/1016/EC(12) 19.12.06 65% 01.08.07/29.08.07 (13) 25 800 8 611 11 928 1 188 3 041
TOTAL 67 702 47 018 50 209 17 317 19 223
(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.  
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under  lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78.
       By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance with the Council De cision of 7 October 1975.  
(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 5 497 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4)  Poland, Hungary.
(5) Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.(6) Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.(7) Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.
(8) South-eastern Neighbours, Mediterranean countries, Latin America and Asia, Republic of South Africa, Special action Turkey,  as amended (2005/47/EC).
(9) A special lending action for selected environmental projects in the Baltic Sea basin of Russia under the Northern Dimension .
(10) A special lending action for certain types of projects in Russia, Belarus,Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
(11) Restated and amended in 2005.
(12) Pre-Accession countries, Neighbourhood and Partnership coun tries, Asia and Latin America, Republic of South Africa.
(13) The amount decided of EUR 27 800 million is broken down into a basic ceilin g of a fixed maximum amount of EUR 25 800 million and an o ptional mandate of EUR 2 000 million
(use to be decided in the context of ongoing mid-term review).
 
EN 12   EN 1.3. Evolution of risk 
1.3.1. Situation of loans to non euro area Member States 
The risk towards Member States for the loans disbursed under Euratom, MFA and EIB 
guaranteed financing should decrease in futu re due their amortization. These loans were 
signed before the accession of these countries to the EU. 
However, the total risk towards Member States is increasing since 2008 following the 
activation of the Balance-of-Payment3 facility (BoP). BoP loan disbursements are planned up 
to 2012. Hungary will reimburse in 2011 its firs t tranche of EUR 2 b illion disbursed in 
December 2008 (included in Graph A1). 
Two other tranches of EUR 1 billion for Latvia  and EUR 2 billion for Hungary, disbursed in 
2009 will be reimbursed in 2014. Three additio nal tranches totalling EUR 4.2 billion 
disbursed during the second semester 2009 will be reimbursed in 2015 and 2016. 
Graph A1: Total Annual Risk borne by th e Budget in EUR million based on the 
amounts (capital and interest) due under op erations (MFA, BoP, Euratom and EIB) 
disbursed at 31.12.20094 with the Member States  (EUR million). 
- 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Euratom
MFA
EIB
BOP
 
                                                 
3 Council Regulation (EC) No 431/2009 of 18 May 2009 (OJ L 128, 27.5.2009, p.1-2). 
4 As of 31 December 2009, the 2010 annual risk for Member States was EUR 890 million. 
 
EN 13   EN 1.3.2. Situations of loans to third countries 
At 31 December 2009, a total of EUR 3 988 million remained to be disbursed by the EIB 
under the EUR 20 060 million EIB external lending mandate for 2000– 2007: 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
31.12.2009***  
Mediterranean 6 520 6 325 1 306
South-Eastern Neighbours** 10 235 7 338 1 860
Asia, Latin America 2 480 2 135  91
South Africa  825  824  108
Member States* 2 763  624
20 060 19 384 3 988
* EUR 2,763 million for Member States are not included (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia).
** The ceiling includes Terra Turkey and Special Action Turkey.
*** Signatures up to 31.07.2008Table A5: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2000 - 2007 
 
At the same date, an amount of EUR 8 884 million remained to be disbursed out of signatures 
made under the EIB external mandate for 2007-2013. 
EUR million
Loans made available
Ceiling (minus cancellations) at to be disbursed
31.12.2009  
A. Pre-Accession Countries 8 700 5 262 4 184
B. Neighbourhood and partnership countries 12 400 4 262 3 117
C. Asia and Latin America 3 800 1 921 1 141
D. South Africa  900  483  443
  
25 800 11 928 8 884
*the current mandate only covers the period until 31 October 2011.Table A6: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2007 - 2013*
 
Graph A2: Total Annual Risk borne by th e Budget in EUR million based on the 
amounts (capital and interest) due under all operations (MFA, Euratom and EIB) 
disbursed at 31.12.2009 with third countries  (EUR million). 
0200400600800100012001400160018002000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Euratom
MFA
EIB
 
 
EN 14   EN Graph A3 presents the result of simulations  of disbursement scen arios under the mandates 
preceding  the current EIB external mandate, as we ll as under the current mandate, established 
for the period 1 February 2007—31 Octobe r 2011 by Decision No 633/2009/EC of the 
European Parliament and of the Council. The rhythm of disbursements has a strong impact on 
the amount of the provisioning of the Fund in future years. 
Graph A3: Estimated outstanding amount c overed by the Fund from  2010 to 2016 (EUR 
million). 
12 00014 50017 00019 50022 00024 50027 00029 50032 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Euratom
MFA
EIB
 
1.4. Payment under the Budget guarantees 
1.4.1. Borrowing/lending operations The EU borrows on the financial market an d on-lends the proceeds (back-to-back) to 
Member States (balance of payments), third co untries (macro-financial assistance) or utility 
companies (Euratom). 
The loan repayments are scheduled to match th e repayments of the borrowings due from the 
EU. If the recipient of the loan is in defau lt, the Commission will first draw on its own cash 
resources to ensure a timely repayment of the EU borrowing on the contractual due date. 
Should the amounts needed for the necessary cas h coverage exceed, in a certain period or 
date, the available Commission's treasury balances, the Commission would, in accordance 
 
EN 15   EN with Article 12 of C ouncil Regulation 1150/20005, draw on additional cash resources from the 
Member States in order to fulfil its legal obligations towards its lenders.  
In the case of BoP loans, where reimburse d amounts can be very high, the beneficiary 
Member States are requested to deposit the amounts due at the European Central Bank seven 
business days in advance of  the contractual due date. This gives enough time for the 
Commission and Member States to  provide for the cash advance to ensure timely repayment 
in case of default. 
In a second step, the treasury situat ion will be regularised as follows: 
Euratom and MFA loans: a) if the payment delay reaches three mont hs after the due date, the Commission draws 
on the Fund to cover for the default and obt ain the necessary funds to replenish its 
treasury.  
b) the Commission might also need to draw  on the Budget, most likely by means of a 
transfer to provide the co rresponding Budget line under ar ticle "01 04 01 European 
Community guarantees for lending operati ons" with the necessary appropriations 
needed to cover the default. This method is used when there are insufficient appropriations in the Fund or if the borrower is a Member State
6 and the transfers are 
likely to require advance authorisation by the budgetary authority  
c) by the re-use of recovered funds, if any. Balance of Payments (BoP) loans
: 
a) by the re-use of funds from late payments b) the Commission may also need to propos e a transfer or an Amending Budget to 
budget the cash advance under the corresponding budget line "01 04 01 01 European Community guarantee for Community loans ra ised for balance-of-payment-support".  
1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties 
The EU provides a guarantee in respect of fi nancing granted by the EIB under the external 
mandates. When the recipient of a guaranteed lo an fails to make a payment on the due date, 
the EIB asks the Commission to pay the amounts owed by the defaulting entity in accordance 
with the relevant guara ntee agreement. The guarantee call mu st be paid within three months 
of receiving the EIB's request, either from th e Fund or directly from the Budget (should the 
resources of the Fund be insufficient). The EIB ad ministers the loan with  all the care required 
by good banking practice and is obliged to seek  to recover the payments due after the 
guarantee has been activated. 
                                                
 
5 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 (OJ L 130, 31.5.2000, p.1-12) 
implementing Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom of 7 June 2007 on the system of European 
Communities' own resources (OJ L 163, 23.6.2007, p. 17-21). 
6 Regarding the loans and loans guaranteed to accession  countries, they were covered by the Guarantee 
Fund and remained outstanding after the date of accessi on. From that date, they ceased to be external 
actions of the Union and are therefor e covered directly by the Budget. 
 
EN 16   EN Since the entry into force of the Regulation establishing the Guaran tee Fund for external 
actions7, the provisions of the Agreement between the EU and the EIB on management of the 
Fund state that, after the EIB calls in the guara ntee in the event of a default, the Commission 
must authorise the Bank to withdraw the corresponding amounts from the Fund within three 
months. 
If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the guarantee 
is the same as for borrowing /lending operations, see 1.4.1 above. 
1.4.3. Activation of Budget guarantees 
If a borrower defaults on an EIB financing op eration guaranteed by  the Budget, the EU 
guarantee is called upon at the earliest three months after th e date on which payment has 
fallen due. The EU will act within three months of receiving such a letter from the EIB calling 
for the guarantee to be activated, authorising th e EIB to take the corre sponding amounts from 
the Fund if the beneficiary is a non-Member State or to receive payment from the Budget if 
the beneficiary is a Memb er State (see 1.4.2 above). 
For loans granted by the EU or Euratom, default interest is owed by loan beneficiaries for the 
time between the date on which cash resources are made available by the Budget and the date 
of repayment to the Bu dget. For EIB loans, default interest is calculated during the period 
between the due date of a defaulted loan inst alment and the date of receipt of the cash 
resources by the EIB from the Commission. From the date of payment to the EIB, default 
interest is due to the Commission. 
                                                 
7 Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 480/2009 of 25 May 2009 establishing a Guarantee Fund for 
external actions (codified version), the "Guarantee Fund Regulation" (OJ L 145, 10.6.2009, p.10). 
 
EN 17   EN 2. C OUNTRY -RISK EVALUATION  
Third countries representing important risk s to the Budget in 2010, notably through EU 
macro-financial assistance, Euratom loans or gu aranteed EIB projects related financing, and 
either categorised as “severely indebted” accord ing to criteria set by the World Bank or facing 
significant imbalances in their external or debt  situation, are included in the country risk 
evaluation . The evaluation presented below comp rises short analyses and tables of risk 
indicators. 
Explanatory notes for country-risk indicators 
Standard footnotes  
1) Includes only EU and EIB loans (outst anding disbursements) to CEEC, NIS and 
MED. 
2) The higher the ranking number, the lowe r the creditworthiness of the country. 
 Countries are rated on a scale of zero to 185; 185 represents  the least risk of default. 
A given country may improve its rating and still fall in the ranking if the average global rating for all ra ted countries improves. 
Abbreviations and English words used in tables
 
S&P Standard and Poor's 
CCFF Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility 
EFF Extended Fund Facility FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product SBA Stand-By Arrangement STF Systemic Transformation Facility est. Estimates m EUR EUR million bn USD USD billion n.a. not available 
 
 
EN 18   EN 2.1. Candidate countries  
2.1.1. Turkey The economic crisis hit Turkey markedly in 2008 and 2009. After having  decelerated to 0.7% 
in 2008, real GDP growth fell by 4.7% y-o-y in  the first half of 2009. Collapsing external 
demand led to a double-digit decline of exports  while a lower availability of external 
financing and domestic credit depressed private consumption and investment. The recession 
bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009, and th e economy is recovering more strongly than 
anticipated, in large part due to  the fiscal stimulus. Overall, economic output is expected to 
decline by about 5% in real terms in 2010.  
The trade and current deficits declined substa ntially in 2009 as imports shrunk by more than 
25% in volume terms and the terms of trad e improved on lower oil and commodity prices. 
Both the public and private sector continued to roll-over external debt at reasonable rates 
despite the decline in economic activity and tighter domestic lending conditions.  
Gross FDI inflows fell from 2.4% of GDP in 2008 to about 1% of GDP 2009. Turkey's 
external debt declined by about 2% in nomin al terms in 2009 and currently amounts to about 
33% of GDP. Private external debt represents two thirds of the total debt and is also on a 
declining trend. International reserves  fell by about 2% to EUR 78 billion but still cover about 
5 months of imports. As a result of the impr oved risk-appetite for emerging markets in 2009, 
the domestic currency recovered some of the losses incurred previously against the USD and the EUR. 
 
EN 19   EN Country-risk indicators:  Turkey 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 4.7 0.7 -4.7
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 10.6 11.0 14.0
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 8.4 10.1 6.5
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -2.2 -6.7
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m €) 105 598 119 607 102 519
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m €) 14595 10723 4374
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   m EUR 72208 79235 78167
   months' imports of goods and services 5.0 5.0 5.0
Exchange rate (end of period) (TL per €) 1.72 1.90 2.20
Ext ernal debt
External debt  (end of period) (m €) 183 692 208 203 203 000
External debt/GDP (%) 28.3 28.1 32.9
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 33.7 29.0 35.6
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €) no no noDebt relief agreements and rescheduling no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 2285 4848 5705
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)    (1) 22.4 34.5 35.1
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1.8 3.2 4.0
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 3.2 5.6 8.0
IMF arrangements
Type SBA SBA none
(Date) (05/08) (until 05/08)
On track yes yes
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Ba3 Ba3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB- BB- BB-
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09     09 /09
   Position in the ranking (2) 72    68 69      76 68    67
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) (186)   (186)
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes
 
 
EN 20   EN 2.2. Potential candidate countries  
2.2.1. Serbia Severely strained by the impact of the global recession, Serbia’s GDP shrank by 3% in real 
terms in 2009, down from 5.5% in 2008.  Economic growth turned negative as domestic 
demand – which was the driving force of the economy over the pa st year – contracted very 
substantially. The trade deficit remained relativel y high at slightly over 15% of GDP, against 
20% in GDP in 2008. The balance of payments pos ition improved thanks to a record inflow of 
remittances of EUR 2.6 billion as well as the agr eement with foreign parent banks to maintain 
their exposure at the 2008 level and IMF funding.
 Given the repercussions of the global crisis 
on the economic situation and outlook, Serbia's ec onomic stabilisation and recovery has been 
supported by an IMF Stand-By Arrangement since January 2009. The conclusions of the third review in February 2010 were positive and th e third tranche of the loan of EUR 360 million 
was made available for release in May. The au thorities decided to draw only half of the 
planned instalment, which brings total disbur sements under the current  programme at about 
EUR 1.3 billion. In line with the IMF conditions, the government has put in place a number of 
fiscal expenditure measures.  
In 2009, Serbia's fiscal position deteriorated, w ith the general government deficit estimated to 
have increased to 4.2% of GDP from 2.5% in 2008 and public debt up at 31.3% of GDP from 
25.6% in 2008. On the other hand, inflationary  pressures eased somewhat during 2009. By 
December, CPI inflation declined to 6.6% year -on-year (8.6% in 2008), mainly due to weak 
aggregate demand following the freeze of public sector wages while the pass-through of the 
exchange rate depreciation (the dinar lost 25% of its nominal value against the euro between 
2008–2009) has been limited. 
 
EN 21   EN Country-risk indicators : Serbia 2007 2008 2009
Input and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.9 5.5 -3.0
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 18.8 14.7 17.4
Inflation rate (RPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 11.0 8.6 6.6
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -2.5 -4.2
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m €) 8 686 10 157 8 478
Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.5 -17.1 -5.7Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m €) 1 821 1 824 1 372
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR 10 882 9 110 12 027.0
months' imports of goods and services 6.3 7.7 9.6
Exchange rate (end of period) (CSD per €) 79.24 88.60 95.90
Ext ernal debt
 External debt (end of period) (m €) 17 718 21 725 22 713
External debt/GDP (%) 60.2 63.6 72.3
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) no 42.8 57.7Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €) 1 763 2 161 no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (a) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU ex
posure (capital and interest due ) (m EUR ) 812 1194 1318
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)  (1) 8.0 8.5 8.1
EU exposure/external debt (%) 4.5 5.6 5.8
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 12.6 16.1 15.5
IMF arrangements
Type no no
(Date) 01 (05 rev.) 2009
On track yes
Indicators of market's perception of creditw orthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) (b) BB- BB- (negative) BB- (stable)
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09     09 /09
   Position in the ranking (2) 87     87 88   126 122    149   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(a) In November 2001, the Paris Club creditors agreed on a highly concessional two-phased debt restructuring of 66% in NPV term s.
The first phase (51%) became effective in May 2002 when t he IMF adopted the new three-year  Extended Arrangement (EA); 
the second phase (15%) will become effective upon successful completion on the EA.
(b) Serbia B+, Montenegro BB.
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 22   EN 2.3. Mediterranean partners 
2.3.1. Jordan Following a strong performance in 2008, GDP growth dipped to  2.4% in 2009. Exports fell 
2% compared to 2008 while investment declined  slightly driven by a decline in FDI from 
surrounding Arab states as oil earnings shrunk. Th e slowdown affected growth in a number of 
sectors, particularly construc tion, real estate, and export i ndustries. Private consumption 
growth slowed to 2.5% in 2009, due in part to a slackening labour market and falling remittances. The government deficit expanded to 12% of GDP, both on account of a fall in tax revenue and an increase in capital spending. Despite the slowdown, official unemployment only rose slightly given the larg e number of migrant workers in the sectors most affected who 
are ineligible for benefits. 
Inflation, which had been declining since th e third quarter of 2008, went into negative 
territory in the second quarter of 2009 before gradually increasing. Annual average CPI for 
2009 was 2.7% compared to 14.9% in 2008. Bo th trade and current account balances 
narrowed, mainly on account of lower commodity prices. The current account deficit fell from 
11.9% of GDP in 2008 to 6% of GDP in 2009. Jord an's banking sector has not been seriously 
affected by the global crisis  on account of limited exposure to internationa l property and 
equity markets. As a precautionary measure,  the government guaranteed all bank deposits 
until the end of 2009. There are early signs that  growth in the economy will recover in 2010, 
as exports and investment have started to in crease, while public finances are set to be 
tightened. GDP growth is predicted to accel erate slightly to 2.7% in 2010. The current 
account deficit is expected to remain at around 6% of GDP in 2010, supported by strong 
growth in the tourism sector. The fiscal stance is expected to be tightened as the government 
intends to reign in current expenditure with th e deficit predicted to be 11% in 2010. Inflation 
is projected to rise to ar ound 5%, on average, for 2010 main ly due to the reversal in 
international commodity prices. 
 
EN 23   EN Country-risk indicators : Jordan 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.6 5.6 3.1
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 13.1 12.7 13.5Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 5.7 9.4 6.7
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -8.2 -9.9 -12.9
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 6.4 7.2 7
Current account balance (% of GDP) -17.0 -11.9 -6.8
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 2.1 1.8 n.a.Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 7.9 8.9 10.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 8.5 9 10Exchange rate (end of period) (JOD per USD) 0.7 0.7 0.7
Ext ernal debt
External debt  ( end of period) (bn USD) 7.4 5.2 5
External debt/GDP (%) 49.2 30.0 30.8
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) no no noArrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no noDebt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
External debt (end of period) (bn USD) 302 299 369
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)     (1) 3.0 2.1 2.3
EU exposure/external debt (%) 2.8 4.1 5.1EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 6.9 5.8 7.6
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba3 Baa3 Ba2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB BB BBEuromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09  09/09   Position in the ranking (2) 75   74 74    75 73   69   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 24   EN 2.3.2. Egypt 
Egypt was affected in 2009 by the global crisis via the external trade and se rvices channels. In 
line with the sharp drop in world trade, expor ts of Egyptian goods slowed down; in addition, 
the decline in income from tourism and th e Suez Canal negatively impacted the Egyptian 
economy. While economic growth was mainly fue lled by investment and exports in the years 
before 2009, private and government consum ption were the main drivers in 2009.  
Although gross government debt is still high at 73% of GDP, general government public 
finances have deteriorated only slightly desp ite the lower economic growth. Reforms in tax 
collection have improved tax revenues. Moreover,  the general government debt was on a clear 
declining path when the crisis  started. The government defic it in fiscal year 2009 was 6.9% 
and will be around 8% of GDP in 2010. High unemployment remains a serious concern. 
About 9% of the labour force is unemployed. The relatively fast population growth is one 
reason for persistent unemploy ment. Also, a surge in wages has hampered the creation of 
jobs. Job creation is essential for absorbing the continuing high annual inflow into the labour 
force and the pool of existing unempl oyed. Youth employment remains high. 
After several years of surplus, the curre nt account balance became negative in 2009. 
Revenues from tourism, private transfers, remittances and the Suez Canal no longer 
compensated for the trade deficit. Net FDI mo re than halved from 7.5% of GDP in 2008 to 
3.5% in 2009. The negative current account and lower foreign direct investments pushed the 
balance of payments into deficit in 2009.  
The currency regime is a managed float. The central bank pursues an inflation targeting 
regime. In support of the Egyptian pound, the central bank intervened occasionally in the foreign exchange market. Nonetheless, official  foreign exchange reserves remained stable 
during the crisis, and are al so expected to reach more than 15% of GDP in 2010.  
 
EN 25   EN Country-risk indicators: Egypt 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.1 7.2 4.7
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 10.3 8.9 9.1
Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 11.0 11.7 16.2
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -7.7 -7.8 -6.9
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 42 57 49
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.7 0.5 -0.4
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 10.6 7.0 2.8
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 31.4 33.8 34.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 5.3 6.7 5.8
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (LE p er  EUR) 7.5 8.1 7.6
Ext ernal debt
External debt (end of period) (bn USD) 32.8 32.6 29.7
External debt/GDP (%) 22.8 20.1 17.0
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 6.4 5.6 6.8
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1680 2141 2241
EU exposure/total EU exposure   (a) (%)   (1) 16.5 15.2 13.8
EU exposure/external debt (%) 8.3 8.8 5.2
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 5.8 5.3 6.6
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09
   Position in the ranking  (2) 71      69 68   68 70   70
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) 186   186 
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 26   EN 2.3.3. Lebanon 
The Lebanese economy had a quite robust pe rformance in 2009, in spite of the global 
financial crisis. Real GDP growth is estim ated at 5.5% on average in 2009, from 8.5% in 
2008. The financial sector proved remarkably  resilient to the po litically uncertain 
environment, with a government of nationa l unity only formed towards the end of 2009. 
Trade volumes decelerated from the beginni ng of 2009 onwards, mirroring the slowdown in 
major trading partners, notably Arab countries and the countries in the EU, which account for 
around 50 and 17 percent of Lebanese exports resp ectively. Persistently  high interest rate 
spreads to international benchm arks kept financing costs up.  
But several other factors acted in support of the economy. Inflationary pressures abated 
sharply from the latter part of 2008. Consumer price inflation fell from more than 10% in 
2008 to around 1% in 2009. In addition, despite a clear negative impact of the crisis on 
tradable industries (exports contracted by 18 %) the Lebanese banking system has been quite 
resilient. Share prices also recovered from  the trough in spring 2009, in line with global 
trends. The current account de ficit broadly stabilised in 2009, at around 11% of GDP. The 
total external debt ratio  declined only moderately in the la st few years, to 187% of GDP in 
2009.  
The government budget balance (including grants) is  expected to have broadly stabilised at 
around 10% of GDP in 2009. Total public expenditu re increased by around 15%, of which is 
a large part is going to servi ce the public debt. International support did help alleviate the 
pressure on public finances. This  included the first tranche of grants and loans (EUR 15 and 
EUR25 million respectively) under the EU macro financial assistance (MFA) facility 
(payments were made in December 2008 and May 2009 and will be primarily used for debt reduction). 
In 2010, real GDP growth is expected to slow down to slightly above 2%. The high cost of 
credit will weigh on private consumption and investment spending. Inflation would pick up 
moderately to 2.4 on average in 2010. Key fiscal ratios are not expected to improve markedly, 
whereas the deficit on the curr ent account is projected to remain at around 10% of GDP. 
 
EN 27   EN Country-risk indicators: Lebanon 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.5 8.5 5.5
Unemployment rate (average) (% labour force) n.a. n.a n.a
Inflation rate (CPI, av) (% change) 4.1 10.8 1.1
G eneral government overall balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -10.0 -10.5
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services (m USD) 4077 5259 4838
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -11.4 -11.3
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m USD) 1.875 2.608              2.8
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (gross useable)
   m USD 19.80 25.94 34.67
   months' imports of goods and services 4.9 7.7 9.7
Exchange rate (av) (L£ per USD) 1508 1508 1508
External   debt
 External debt  (end of period) (m USD) 48 500 54 791            61 149    
External debt/GDP (%) 194 187.0              187.0      
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 41 33.6 no
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
External debt (end of period) (bn USD) 354 508 539
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)  (1) 3.5 3.6 3.3
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0.5 0.7 0.6EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 12.8 13.4 16.0
IMF arrangements
Type no EPCA II
(Date) adopted 3-11
On track yes (concluded June 2009)
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B3 B 3 B2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) B- B- B-Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 111    116 127   134 102   80
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)   (186) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 28   EN 2.3.4. Tunisia 
Despite the global financial and economic cris is, the performance of the Tunisian economy 
remained overall robust in 2009. Economic grow th slowed down to 3.0% in 2009, from 4.6% 
in 2008 and is expected to accelerate to 3.7% in 2010. During the global recession the 
Tunisian economy suffered via the trade channe l from the lower global demand, in particular 
from the drop in EU activity.  
During the global crisis macroeconomic meas ures, both fiscal and monetary policies 
supported the economy. To offset the fall in priv ate investment linked to the global crisis, 
national authorities put in place  a stimulus package of 1.3% of GDP destined mainly for 
public investment in infrastructu re, education, energy and health. 
The expansionary fiscal policy and a fall in tax revenues meant that the fiscal deficit increased 
from -0.8% of GDP in 2008 to 6.3% in 2009. Pub lic debt slightly increased, from 47% of 
GDP in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Expectations are th at the deficit will narrow to 5.2% in 2010, 
while the debt stock will further increase to 56%. Tunisia's public finance position has 
become more vulnerable in view of the rising debt stock, and the relatively high foreign debt 
(more than 50% in 2010).  
Consumer price inflation remained remarkab ly stable at 4%. The authorities remain 
committed to adopting a formal inflation target ing regime. The Tunisian dinar remains pegged 
to a basket of currencies with the euro having the largest share. The dinar depreciated 4% vis-
à-vis the euro and 10% vis-à- vis the US dollar in 2009, which helped limit th e decline in 
Tunisian exports. Nonetheless, due to lower exports the current account balance widened in 
2009 and is expected to widen further in 2010 up to almost 7% of GDP. Gross reserves are 
expected to reach 30% of GDP in 2010. 
 
EN 29   EN Country-risk indicators : Tunisia2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.3 5.0 2.5                  
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 14.1 14.0 14.3
Consumer price inflation (average) (% change) 3.1 5.1 3.8
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -1.2 -3.8
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 15.0 19.2 15.1
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -4.2 -3
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 1.5 2.3 1.3
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 7.9 8.9 10.2
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 4.6 4.1 4.2
Exchange rate (end of period) (TD per USD) 1.27 1.31 1.35
External debt
External debt  (end of period) (bn USD) 20.4 20.7 19.9
External debt/GDP (%) 54.9 51.8 51.2
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 16.5 11.0 22.4
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 1 562 1 683 1900
EU exposure/total EU exposure     (%) (1) 15.3          12.0           11.7                
EU exposure/external debt (%) 11.3          11.3           13.8                
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 15.3          12.2           18.1                
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa2 Baa2 Baa2
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB BBB BBB Euromoney 03/07  09/07 03/08  09/08 03/09   09/09   Position in the ranking (2) 62    64 62    64   53       52   (number of countries) (185)    (185) (185)) (186)   (186)  (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 30   EN 2.3.5. Morocco 
Morocco showed strong resilience to the global cris is and attained investment grade status in 
2009. GDP growth only moderated to 5.2% in 2009 from 6.2% in 2008, while it is expected to 
dip slightly in 2010, to 4.1% of GDP, partly restrained by  higher import prices. The crisis 
mainly affected the external side of the economy in 2009, with a negative impact on exports, 
particularly phosphate-based products, tourism, remittances and inward investment. Exports 
fell by 10% compared to a year earlier. On th e other hand, a wider slow down was averted due 
in part to strong growth in the agricultural sector on account of a bumper harvest. Private 
consumption continued to grow at 8% in 2009 partially supported by an expansion in public 
finances as well as a decline in unemployment.  Unemployment continued to fall to a record 
low level of 9%, but could rise  again quickly as many new jobs  were the result of seasonal 
hiring in the large ag ricultural sector, which accounts fo r about 15% of GDP and employs 
around 40% of the workforce. 
After registering a mild surplus in 2008, the ge neral government balan ce turned negative in 
2009 mainly on account of lower tax revenues fro m slowing economic activity and reductions 
to personal and corporate income tax, as we ll as an increase in capital expenditure. The 
government proceeded with an extensive so cial housing programme providing a boost to 
investment. On the other hand, th ese factors were partly compen sated for a significant decline 
in spending on subsidies, due to the fall in international commodity prices and better targeting of food subsidies. The budget de ficit was 2.1% of GDP for 2009, wh ile this is expected to 
widen to 4.3% in 2010 on account of further reduc tions in taxation and increased spending on 
subsidies. Despite the fiscal expansion, the leve l of government debt fe ll slightly, to 55% of 
GDP, due to firm growth in the economy.  
Since the end of 2008, the CPI has been gra dually declining driven  by a reversal in 
commodity prices. The CPI was around 1% on average for 2009 compared to 3.9% in 2008. 
The current exchange rate regime is tightly managed against a euro-dominated basked of 
currencies. The authorities have taken gradua l steps to lessen currency controls with the 
prospect of introducing a fully floating currenc y in the future. The current account deficit 
narrowed in 2009 to -3.7% of GDP due to  a marked improvement in the trade balance, 
influenced by lower oil and wheat prices. This fo llows a consistent deterioration of the current 
account since 2007 due to a widening trade defic it, linked to a narrow export base and weak 
competitiveness. The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2010 to -6.5% of GDP, 
as the acceleration in imports outpaces that in exports.  
 
EN 31   EN Country-risk indicators: Morocco 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 3.2 6.2 2.6
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 9.8 9.5 9.1
Wholesale price Inflation (average) (% change) 2.0 3.8 2
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 0.2 0.4 -1.1
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 24.4 23.2 21.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -6.6 -4.2Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 2.2 2 0.7
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 24.7 22.7 21.5
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 10.0 9 8.8Exchange rate (MDH per USD) 7.7 8.1 7.85
External debt
 External debt (end of period) (bn USD) 20.5 20.8 21.1
External debt/GDP (%) 26.8 22.5 22.2Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 8.0 6.5 6.6Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU ex
posure (capital and interest due ) (m EUR ) 1275 1929 2224
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 12.5 13.7 13.7
EU exposure/external debt (%) N/A N/A N/A
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 30.3 N/A N/A
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditw orthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Ba1
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BB+ BB+Euromoney 03/07    09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 65     65 66      63 63    54   (number of countries) (185)    (185) (185)   (186) (186)    (186) 
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
2.3.6. Syria 
After achieving average real GDP growth above 5% over the last three years, despite a 
drought in the north-east of the country, growth  dipped to 3.6% of GDP in 2009. This was 
mainly due to the impact of the global econom ic crisis which hit e xport demand and inward 
investment. Export earnings declined by ar ound 25% in 2009 and are expected to only 
gradually recover in 2010 due to  lower agricultural prices. Inward investment fell driven by a 
decline in FDI from the Gulf region. Remittan ces also fell as the employment market for 
Syrians working overseas deteriorated. The agri cultural sector grew st rongly in 2009 albeit 
from a low base produced by two years of contraction due to drought. This partially 
compensated for a decline in industrial out put. Private consumpti on growth accelerated, 
however, in part due to an e xpansionary fiscal stance. The government deficit expanded to 
5.7% of GDP mainly due to a sharp fall in ta x revenue due to fall ing oil production. Fuel 
subsidies have been substantially reduced but remain a fiscal burden. The public debt stock 
remained low at 33.7% of GDP in 2009 and is e xpected to remain near that level in 2010. 
 
EN 32   EN Consumer price inflation declined in 2009 ma inly on account of the drop in global demand 
and associated lower global commodity prices. In some months there was even deflation. On 
average, the CPI reached almost 3  % in 2009. Inflation is however rising again strongly and is 
expected to average 6.5% in 2010. The exchange rate depreciated  8% vis-à-vis the US dollar 
and 13% vis-à-vis the euro in 2009. Trade and cu rrent account balances deteriorated, largely 
driven by the fall in the volume of crude oil exports and lower remittances. The only positive 
factor in the development of the current accoun t was an increase in the balance of services 
due to continued growth of the tourism sector . The current account deficit is expected to 
narrow in 2010. 
Country-risk indicators : Syria 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.7 4.3 2.9
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 8.4 8.6 9.2
Consumer price Inflation (retail, average) (% change) 4.5 15.2 2.8
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -1.9 -7.0
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 13.6 17.0 11.8
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.1 -1.4 -2.8
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (bn USD) 1.1 2.1 1.9
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD 6.4 6.7 6.0
   in months of next years imports of goods and services 11.6 9.4 10.4
Exchange rate (end of period) (SYR£ per USD) 51.1 46.0 45.5
Ext ernal debt
 External debt  (end of period) (bn USD) 5.9 5.7 5.5
External debt/GDP (%) 14.5 10.5 10.4
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 1.2 0.8 0.9
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m USD) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m USD) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 378 536.1 762.8
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 3.7 3.8 4.7
EU exposure/external debt (%) 9.4 13.1 20.0EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 4.1 4.4 9.3
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) none none none
Euromoney 03/07  09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09   09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 124   122 116   115 163    149
   (number of countries) (185)   (185) (185)  (186) (186)  (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
2.4. Other countries 
2.4.1. South Africa South African real GDP contracted by 1.8% in 2009. This was accompanied by a sharp 
decline in employment in the private sect or and a rising unemplo yment rate. Economic 
growth recovered from negative ra tes in the first half of 2009 to  a small positive rate in the 
 
EN 33   EN third quarter that strengthened considerably in  the last quarter. For 2010 a growth rate of 2¾ 
percent can be expected. Infla tion came down to 7.1% in 2009 after and should remain within 
the 3-6% target ban in the medium term, despite some base effects that are likely to affect 
adversely the inflation outcomes in the shor t term. Domestic consumption expenditure 
remains weak and there are no perceived risks to the inflatio n outlook from this source. The 
public-sector borrowing re quirement was budgeted to amount to  R288 billion in  fiscal year 
2009/10 and projected to rise slightly further in 2010/11 The countercyclical widening of the 
general government deficit in re sponse to deterioration in th e economic outlook contributed to 
the increased borrowing requirement.  
Both import and export volumes rose at the end of 2009. At the same time, South Africa’s 
terms of trade improved, which contributed to a modest increase in the trade surplus and a 
narrowing of the current account deficit to slight ly below 3% of GDP. As before, the current 
account deficit was financed with  ease, most prominently through inward portfolio  investment 
flows, allowing for a further moderate accumulati on of gross official foreign reserves ($42 
billion in March). The value of the rand ro se strongly from March till October 2009.  
 
EN 34   EN Country-risk indicators: South Africa 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.1 3.1 -1.8
Unemployment (end of period) (% labour force) 22.7 21.9 24.5
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec) (% change) 7.111.57.1
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) 0.8 -0.7 -4.4
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services in bn US $ 89.2 97.9 78
Exports of goods and services (m €) 65074 66562 56094
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.3 -7.1 -4.0
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m €) 1922 8578 2972
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) $33,0bn $34,1bn $39,7bn
   m EUR 45234 50154 55203
   months' imports of goods and services 3.7 4.6 4.6
Exchange rate (end of period) (SAR per EUR) 10.04 12.08 11.71
External debt
 External debt (end of period) (m €) 55532 48689 57722
External debt/GDP (%) 26.6 25.9 27.3
Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 9.7 9.6 9.6
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU ex posure (capital and interest due ) (m EUR ) 666          636             743            
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)     (1) 6.5             4.5              4.6              
EU exposure/external debt (%) 1.2             1.3              1.3              
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 1.1           0.9              1.4             
IMF arrangements
Type no no no
(Date)
On track
Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Baa1 Baa1 A3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Euromoney 03/07   09/07 03/08   09/08 03/09  09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 55    55     55      54    50       47   (number of countries) (185))  (185) (185)   (186) (186)    (186) 
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes  
 
EN 35   EN 2.4.2. Brazil 
Despite Brazil's initial resilience to the global  crisis, its economy wa s significantly impacted 
in 2009 through weaker external demand, lower commodity prices and stressed financial 
markets. However, economic activity bottomed out  quite rapidly and star ted recovering in at 
the end of 2009. In 2010, growth is expected to tu rn to pre-crisis leve ls. By contrast, the 
economic recovery will improve the public sector balance, as fiscal revenue will rise. Overall, 
the fiscal deficit is forecast to improve fr om -3.3% of GDP in 2009 to around -2.4% in 2010. 
Monetary policy will face the ch allenge to curb mounting infl ationary pressures. On the 
financial markets scene, equity markets have substantially recovered, international markets 
have reopened for the Brazilian sovereign an d corporates and financial conditions have 
significantly improved.  
The recovery of global risk appetite has led to a surge in capital inflows, particularly portfolio 
inflows, while foreign direct investment, whic h had fallen more moderately during the crisis, 
also started recovering already in 2009. The Brazilian currency has also strongly recovered 
from sharp depreciations in 2008/2009. Finally, cu rrent low external debt , large international 
reserves (amounting to above USD 240bn) and we ll capitalised financial institutions should 
help the government to roll over the external debt due in 2010. 
 
EN 36   EN Country-risk: Brazil 2007 2008 2009
Output and prices
Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.4 5.1 -0.2
Unemployment (average) (% labour force) 9.3 6.8 7.4Consumer price Inflation (average) (% change) 4.5 5.9 4.3
G eneral government balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -1.9 -3.5
Balance of payments
Exports of goods and services f.o.b. (bn USD) 116800 140539 110072
Current account balance (en % du PIB) 0.3 -1.7 -1.5
Net inflow of foreign direct investment (m  €) 25246 17468 18668
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)   bn USD 131127 137585 166787
   in months of imports of goods and services 14 13 22
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE) (reais per €) 2.6 3.3 2.5
External debt
 External debt  ( end of period) (m €) 177960 170094 142533
External debt/GDP (%) 14.1 12.1 12.6Debt service/exports of goods and services (%) 32 19 28
Arrears (on both interest and principal) (m €) no no no
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling (m €) no no no
Indicators of EU exposure
EU exposure (capital and interest due) (m EUR) 443 621 691
EU exposure/total EU exposure (%)   (1) 4.4 4.4 4.3
EU exposure/external debt (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3EU exposure/exports of goods and services (%) 0.4 0.4 0.9
IMF arrangements
Type No No
(Date) 22/01/2010
On track 2 years
Indicators of markets' perception of creditworthiness
Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) Ba1 Ba1 Baa3
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period) BB+ BBB- BBB-Euromoney 03/07    09/07 03/08   09/08   03/09   09/09
   Position in the ranking (2) 67     66 63    60 51   48
   (number of countries) (185)    (185) (185)    (186) (186)   (186)
Footnotes
(1) (2)   See explanatory notes