ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(78)408
Vol.1978/0157

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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(78)408 final
Brussels,11September1978
Proposalfora
multiannualresearchprogrammeinthe
fieldofclimatology (Indirectaction-
1979-83)
(submittedbytheCommissiontotheCouncil)
C0M(78)408final' '"jA
V:'-,■<$Y:--/V ■•\
-cl,-:■>

-ι- X1I/Z&7/7&-EN
CONTENTS
Pa9-.s
0.SUMMARY I"1'1
1.INTRODUCTION .1
2.PRESENTSTATEOFTHEART - ?
2.1.RESEARCHACTIVITIES WORLDWIDE 2
ANDINEUROPE
2.2.PRESENTSTATEOFKNOWLEDGE ABOUT' 5
CLIMATE ANDPROBLEMS RAISEDTHEREBY
3.MOTIVATION FORACLIMATOLOGY PROGRAMME OF: 8
THEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
4.DETAILEDDESCRIPTION OFTHEPROGRAMME 10
4.1.GENERALREMARKS 10
4.2.RESEARCHAREAS 10
4.2.1.ResearchAreaI:"Understanding Climate 10-
4.2.1.1.Objectives 10
4.2.1.2.ResearchThemesunderResearchAreaI 11
1.1.Reconstruction ofPastClimates 11
1.2.ClimateModellingandPrediction 12
4.2.2.ResearchAreaII:"Man-ClimateInteractions "13
4.2.2.1.Objectives 13
4.2.2.2.ResearchThemesunderResearchAreaII 13
11.1.ClimaticVariabilityandEuropeanResources 13
11.2.Man'sImpactsonClimate 15
4.3.SPECIALACTIVITIES 1?
4.3.1.Objectives 17
.4.3.2.SpecificInstruments andServices 18
(a)AEuropeanInterdisciplinary Group 18
fortheStudyofClimaticImpacts
(b)Inventory,Coordination andEnrichment 18
ofEuropeanClimaticDataSets

II- XI1/387 /78
5.IMPLEMENTATION .FUNDING AND MANAGEMENT 19
0FTHE PROGRAMME
APPENDIX 20
Some noteworthy weather extremes since 1960
PROPOSAL FOR ACOUNCIL DECISION 22

-1- XII/387/«3-EN
0.SUMMARY
0.1.Motivation
Thepresentproposal concerns aEECResearch Programme in
Climatology .
Thisprogramme proposal -ismotivated bytwobasicneeds:
(i)Tocontribute totheunderstanding ofthemechanism
ofclimate andofthecausesofclimaticvariability ;
(ii)Toassesstheimpactsthatclimaticvariability could ,
haveonbasicEuropean resources,aswellastherole
thatmancouldbeplayinginthatvariability itself.
0.2.ClimaticVariability andMan
Theassumption ofaconstantly friendly climateisan
unwarranted one,sincetheclimaticvariability observed inthe
pastfewcenturies appearstorepresent thewayinwhichclimate
normally behaves.'
Whatisnewwithrespecttopastcenturies isthegreat
vulnerability characterizing thepresentsociety,duetoour
limitedfoodandwaterreserves,whichallowlittleorfio
safetymarginstoasteadily increasing worldpopulation andto
ourexpanding industrial system.
Thepresentsociety'sstrongdependence ontechnological
meansisalsoafactortobetakenintoaccount.~Technological
*progress couldmeetgrowing needs,butatthesametimeitwould
involve anincreasingly largeuseofenergy(i.e.anincreasing
depletion ofresources )whitstcausingamoreintensepollution./
Thelatter'caninitsturnaffectthenatural ecosystems
andhaveadverseeffects bothonthoseresources themselves
andonclimate (e.g.-throughdirectenergyinputintothe
atmosphere andthroughaccumulation ofsuchpollutants asaerosols
andcarbondioxide).
Allthismeansthatwemighthavetofaceakindofclimatic
barriertolong-term energygrowth.
0.3.Presentstateofknowledge '
•'Whatwedoanddonotknowaboutclimaticvariability can
besummarized asfollows :
(a)Weknowthatclimate .isessentially changeable ;we
donotknowtheprecisecausesofitschanges.
(b)Weknowthatclimatic changesmayoccuratanytime;
wealsoknowthatmanmighthavearoleindetermining
them;wedonotknowwhen.orwheretheycould^pccMr .
•Weknowthatevenrelatively smallchangesmightproduce
importanteffects;wedonotknowthequantitative re­
lationships linkingclimatic changestothep.----sivie'..•'
changesinthevariables important toman'sS.'■>-fiar»d
well-being .

XII/387 /78-EN
0.4 .Programme Outline
Inorder totake into account asmany aspossible ofthe
main facets ofatruly complex problem ,andatthesame time
toconcentrate onobjectives which areofhighest priority inEurope ,the
following items have been considered forinclusion inthepro­
gramme .Tworesearch areas have been defined ,dealing with
(i)Climate 'smechanism and behaviour ;
and
(ii)The interactions between climate and man ..
Inaddition ,two"special activities "have
been proposed ,toprovide support andguidance tothewhole
research work tobeperformed within thepresent programme .
A.RESEARCH AREAS
I."UQd£ÇS|lQdiQ9 =£ii0|t |"
The aim should behere togain adeeper insight
irtto themechanism andbehaviour ofclimate .Although
totruly understand such amechanism may beasyet a
far-distant target ,itisfelt that efforts should
bespent inthis direction ,inorder that ultimately
any climatologically-based planning may beput ona
firmer basis than empirical guesswork .
1.1 .Reconstruction ofPast Climates
This should beachieved through theexploration
andanalysis of
a.Natural Records .
b.Observational and other Historical Records .
1.2 .Climate Modelling and Prediction
Work inthis area should help towards theultimate
goal ofanyclimate modelling ,viz .climate prediction .
Itissuggested that efforts should bespent to
a.Develop prediction methods based onasystem -
analysis approach .
b.Improve atmospheric circulation models .
c.Improve thesimulation oftheslowly varying
components oftheclimatic system .
Theemphasis should behere onshort-term variability
andimpacts ,with theend inview ofarriving atreliable
diagnoses andprojections .
II»1 «Climatic Variability andEuropean Resources
Three major focal points arehere suggested :
a*Impacts onLand andWater Resources
b.Climatic Hazards Evaluation

'.11.1 XII/38rf«
♦
c.ImpactsonEnergyRequirements/Useand
Production
II.2.Han'sImpactsonClimate
Chemicalandthermalpollutionoftheatmosphere Chemie®
havebeen^
a.Atmc
empf
b.ReUhavebeenhereselected:I:
a.Atmosphericchemicalpollution,withaspecial
emphasisoncarbondioxideaccumulation η
b.ReleaseofEnergy.
3,SPECIALACTIVITIES
Thesearemeanttoprovidespecificinstruments insupport
ofthepreviouslymentionedresearchaims.
I.Establishment ofanInterdisciplinary Groupforthe
StudyofClimaticImpacts
II.Inventory,Coordination andenrichmentofEuropean
ClimaticDataSets
•0.5.Τ.πιρΙβπιβηΐΒΐτοη · ί
Theprogrammewillbeimplemented asanindirectactionbymeansof
cost-sharing contractswithprivateandpublicresearchorganizations
intheMemberStates.Thisactionshallbebasedonapreliminaryeffort
tocoordinatetheongoingresearchactivitiesintheMemberStates,which
wiltallow: -
(a)todefinepreciselytheprojects,complementary tothoseresearch
activities,whichshouldbefinancedatCommunitylevel;
(b)toavoiduselessduplications ;
(c)topromotethecooperationofscientistsactiveinthefieldof
climatologyinthememberstated.
0o6.Funding V •y
Themaximumcontribution fromtheEuropean -Communitiesbudgetfor-the5-
orogrammeisestimatedat8.000.000 EUAtobe.usedtofundresetseh
contractsandcoordination activities ."'. »
0«7iManagement
ThisprogrammewillbemanagedbytheCommission^counselledUr
AdvisoryCommitteeonProgrammeManagement.

«1- XII/387/78
INTRODUCTION
Naturalclimatevariationsareknowntohavehadamajor
impactonhumancivilizations inthepast,andtheireffects
havebeenkeenlyfeltindroughts,badharvests,floodsand
otherextremesandcatastrophes inrecentyears.There
existstodaynogenerallyacceptedexplanation ofthese
fluctuations,andthereexistsnoreliableempiricalortheore­ticalmethodfortheirprediction.Theimpair*of^an'sexpan­
dingactivitiesonclimatealsoconstitutes apotentially grave-
dangerwhichcannotyetbeproperlyassessed.Theurgentneed
toimproveourunderstanding ofclimateiswidelyrecognized
todayandtheproblemisbeingaddressedbyanumberofagencies,
workinggroupsandresearchprogrammes onthtenationalandinter­
nationallevel.However,acoordinated Europeanresearchpro­
grammehassofarbeenlacking.ItistheviewoftheCommission
thatsuchaprogrammewouldencourageneweffortsinEuropeand
provideavaluablecontribution toclimaticresearchingeneral;
Themotivationforsuchaprogramme1soutlinedinSection3of
thepresentproposal.
Inthecontext'ofthisproposalclimateisdefinedasvarious
statisticsoftheweatheraveragedoverperiodsofamonthor
more.-.Itisthusseenthatonemustdistinguish between •climate
(anaveragedstate)andweather(aninstantaneous state).
Thescienceof"weather,predictionattemptstopredictthe
detailedstateoftheatmosphereforthefuture.Duetoour
limitedknowledgeofthestateoftheatmosphereatanygiven
time(basedonmanykindsofatmosphericobservationsofwind^
temperature,pressure,humidity,clouds,sea-surfacetemperatures,
etc.)andduetoourlimitedknowledgeofthephysicsofallthe
atmosphericprocessesonmanyscalesreachingfromthemicro-
physicsofcloudstothemacro-physics ofglobalweatherphenomenaftisnotpossibletopredicttheweatherindetailforlong
periodsoftime.Atthemoment,itisgenerallyagreedthatthe
weather,i.e.thedetailedstateoftheatmosphere,cannotbe
predictedformorethanabouttwoweeks.Itmustalsobestressed
thatonestillneedstodemonstratethatthisgoalcanbereached.
'Thisstateofaffairsdoesnotprecludethepossibilitythatthe
averagedstateoftheatmosphere (thatisclimate)bepredictedfo
periodslongerthantwoweeks,althoughfhisrepresentsatprs^ent
anunsolvedandvery,difficultproblem.Forperiodsbeyondt•
weeks,theatmospherecannolongerbetreatedseparatelyfrc-ntthe
oceans,landandsea-ice,biosphere,chemicalcyclesand6thercom
ponentsoftheclimaticsystem.Becauseoftheirlargeinvfrtfia,thesecomponentsaregenerallyregardedasgivenconstantsi**rou­tineweatherprediction.However,forthelongertime;scai'sucha­racteristicofclimat1c.fluctuationsthedynamicsI'pfopertis■oftheclimaticsystemarelargelygovernedbythecomponentsu<ith
largethermalanddynamicalinertia.Theproperunderstanding ofthenorv-atmospheric components ,of,theclimaticsystemthersbecomesessential. ■»"' -

XII/387 /78-EN
t : s
Itshould beemphasised that thegaps that exist inourpresent
knowledge donotconcern facts ,butrather their causes andtimes
ofoccurrence .Thus noscientist could possibly prove today that
such and such disaster isawaiting usatagiven date inthe future .
But science hasgathered proofs enough that climate cancause disasters .
Itistherefore imperative that onone side werefine ourmeans of
investigation into thecauses ofclimatic changes soastoreach a
point where wecan get early warnings ofthem ;onthe other side we
should improve our concept of"likelihood ofoccurrence "bygiving
itaprecise and anashigh aspossible probability value for spe­
cified times and places .
Inother words ,wehave todecide whether wecanafford toremain
unprepared for likely ,serious climatic changes inapossibly near
future ,orwhether wecan goonpolluting chemically and thermally
our atmosphere without minding ofthepossible consequences onclimate .
Growing needs may bemet bytechnological progress ,but the latter
involves agreater use ofenergy ,meaning agreater chemical and
thermal pollution ofour environment .Should climate beadversely
affected bythose by-products oftechnological expansion ,wemight
have toface akind ofclimatic barrier tolong-term energy growth .
2.PRESENT STATE OFTHE ART
Thepresent "state .oftheart"concerning climate and itsrelevance
tohuman life maybeconveniently treated under twoheadings :
1.Research activities underway ,both world-wide and inEurope .
2.Present state ofknowledge iabout climate andproblems raised
thereby .
2.1 .RESEARCH ACTIVITIES WORLDWIDE AND INEUROPE
2.1.1 .International Proiects
During thelast decade there hasbeen asignificant increase
inresearch onclimate onaworldwide basis .Theproblems con­
nected with theunderstanding ofthepresent andpast climates• ' k2>
:I · !
!
; i

/'•
•iXI1/387.78-EN
Andthepossibilities forpredictingfutureclimaticstateshavenot
only'resultedinsignificantindividualeffortsbuthavealsoinspired
nationalandinternational programmesdealingwithvariousaspectsof
theclimateproblem.
Atrulyinternational programme,theGlobalAtmospheric Research
Programme(GARP),sponsoredjointlyb'ytheInternational Councilof•;
ScientificUnions(ICSU)andtheWorldMeteorological Organisation (WM.O),-
hasamongitsobjectivesthestudyofthosephysicalprocesses 'inthe
troposphereandstratospherethatareessentialforanunderstanding '
ofthefactorsthat-determinethestatisticalpropertiesofthegeneral
circulationoftheatmospherewhichwouldleadtobetterunderstanding ~
ofthephysicalbasisofclimate. ^
Anumberofotherclimateprogrammesexist..These,havetoalarge ;\'
extentbeencreatedbecauseoftherenewedinterestinclimatemodelling
duringthelastdecadeinducedpartlybythepossibilityofman'simpact/
■,onclimateandpartlybytheimplicationsofsomeoftheearlyprimitive-
climatemodels.Aprogrammeespeciallydevotedtotheassessmentof
man-climateinteractiveimpactsisbeingorganizedbytheWMO.
2.1.2.U.S.A.Projects
ThescientificcommunityintheUSAhasexpresseditsrecognition
oftheneed-forclimaticresearchbyawettformulatedplanforclimaticstudiesduringthenextdecades.'Theplanissummarised
book"UnderstandingClimaticChange,AProgramforAction",
publishedbytheU.S.'NationalAcademyofSciences(1975).
Thisplancontainsawidespectrumofprojects -deaH-ng'witha-
ClimaticDataAnalysisProgramme <CDAP),aClimaticIndexMonito­
ringProgramme(CIMP),andaClimaticModellingandApplications
rogramme(CMAP).Itisfurtherrecognisedthattheseessentiallynationalprogrammes .mustbeseeninan.international "setting.TofurthertheaimsoftheclimaticpartoftheGARPprogramme,itwasalsorecommendedtocreateanInternationalClimaticResearchPro­
gramme(ICRP).- ' . v■■
Another,"U.S.'ClimateProgramPlan"hasbeenpreparedbyaDraf­tingGroupoftheInterdepartmental .CommitteeforAtmosphericvsciences.11largelyoverlapstheformeronebycoveringsuchto­pc.^.sCU-at^VaHability andNationalActivities,fiagnose"'nd
»entTr?r",Cl,nateVariability,ClimateDataI4an:,9e-nt,ObservationsforClimateResearch,etc.
*J*n;1fflport?ntplanforaCarbonDioxjdeEffectsResearch -and'/
hasbeendrawnbyth?Depart^T^f~E^7 ."it
?oncenLnrV1n^UnCertaint1eSfromP^ctictedfuturecarbon'H,.,icie
climaticfant^assessingitspossibleconsequences,notedlyclimatic,butalsobiological,socialandeconomical.
whicTlrr^inrfddir°nfnUmb6r°fTOorespecializedprogr,wn«s•/:VBecausfth!h6iyCelatedto-some,aspectsofclimatic,-^rch.
scaleiturth®cl1maticbehaviouronalonaInthoseasae^t^*thf!oceano3raphiccommunityis*ngaqednthoseaspectsofoceanographywhicharerelevanttoclimate

-4- XII/387/78-EN
problems.ExamplesofsuchfieldstudiesaretheMid-ocean
DynamicsExperiment (MODE),theNorthPacificExperiment
(NORPAX),andaPOLYMODEexperiment,jointlysponsored by
theU.S.A.andtheU.S.S.R. OtherexamplesaretheClimatic
ImpactAssessment Programme (CIAP)whichwasconcernedwith
theimpactontheclimatebyvariousairpollutants,andthe
ClimateDynamics Programme oftheAdvanced Research Programme
(Department ofDefence,U.S.A.).
2.1.3.tl*SxSéB£=EÇQl|£t|
Lessdetailedinformation isavailable fromtheU.S.S.R. abouttheir
programmeforclimaticresearchbutitisknownthroughthe6ARPplanning
meetings,thattheU.S.S.R.scientists arekeenlyinterested in
climatic problems.Indeed,oneofthefirstclimatic modelswas,
presented byaRussianscientist (Budyko).
y
2.1.4.Projectsinthe_EC_Countries
(a)Climatemodelling
Itisconvenient toseparately consider theeffortsin
themodelling ofclimatewhicharemadebyuseofgeneralcircu­
lationmodels(GCMs)andthosecarried onwithmodelswherethe
weather systemsaretreated onastatistical basis.
Atpresent,theonlyGCMsinEuropewhichcanbeusedfor
climaticstudiesare£hoseoftheBritishMeteorological Office
(BMO)andtheECMWF?TheBMOmodelshavebeenappliedtolong-
rangeprediction ,andhavebeenusedforanalyses ofspecific
circulation anomalies andalsoforstudiesofman-made climatic
changes.TheGCMsattheECMWFarecloselyrelatedtoandbased
onmodelsdeveloped intheU.S.A.andareusedformedium-range
predictions .
ThereareGCMsunderdevelopment attheDeutscher Wetter-
dienst (Offenbach )andinFrance (Etablissement d'Etudes etde
Recherches Meteorologiques ,Boulogne ;Laboratoire deM£teorologie
Dynamique,Palaiseau).TheJointUniversities GroupinReading
hasmadeparticular effortsinanalysing thebehaviour ofGCMs
whichmayprovefruitfulforanassessment ofthereliability of
resultsobtained withGCMs.Oceancirculation modelsareunder
development inFrance(Laboratoire d'Oceanographie Physique,
Paris)England(DAMPT,Cambridge ;JointUniversities Modelling
Group,Reading)andinGermany(Max-Planck Institute,Hamburg).
Someoftheparametrized modelspresented sofarinEurope
exhibit acertainskillinthesimulation andanalysis ofthe
present meanstateoftheatmosphere (Wiin-Nielsen ,ECMWF).Some
areconcerned withthetestingofaspecific schemeforthepara-
metrlzation ofweathersystems (e.g.Imperial College,London).
TheworkattheMax-Planck Institute inHamburgconcentrates on
studyingtheslowlyvarying .partsoftheclimatesystem.Simplified
modelsareinthestageofdevelopment inFranceandBelgium(e.g.
Laboratoire deMet^orologie Dynamique,Paris)
Someofthesemodelsconcentrate onthestudyofselected
mechanisms inthegeneralcirculation andtheproblemofseasonalprediction hasbeenattacked.
*European CentreforMedium-range WeatherForecast,Bracknell,UK

-■.'*5- ....XII/38""'78-EN
•.(b)Reconstruction ofPastClimates
Sporadicstudiesofclimate1nthehistoricpast,havebeen
madeinanumberofEuropeanacademicinstitutions andnational
meteorological services,andtheresultshavebeenpublishedin
variousscientificperiodicalsandweatherservicepublications .
Becausethedataandtechniquesforreconstruction ofthepast
climaticrecordinvolvemanybranchesoflearning,-thiskind
ofresearchappearsbestdoneinthefullinterdiscip.'inary-
settingofacademic-.institutions *".Theadvancedcomputational -.VfacilitiesandexpertstaffintheLaboratoriesofleadingmeteoro­
logicalservices,ontheotherhand,areideallysuitotopursue
.researchofatheoreticalnature,suchasclimatemode1ing,nume­ricalpredictionsandtheexplorationofthepotencia:effectsof
man'sactivitiesontheclimateregime.
Thereisanobviousneedforalargeamountofco-operation
betweenthesetwoanglesofclimaticresearchwhichisatpresent
(except.In.theUnitedStates)notfullymet.Also,disproportionatelyless-workandsupport,hassofargoneintothereconstruction ofthe
climaticrecord:arecordthatshallbelongenoughtocovermany
timestheevolutionoflong-termprocessesthatmaybeimportantto•predictionoverthecomingdecades.
AtpresentonlyafewgroupsandinstitutesexistinEurope •
wheretheobservedrecordofclimatebeyond100yearsbackisworked
onbymeteorologists .Smallgroupsorindividualscientistsinthe
nationalMeteorological ServicesandUniversitiesinEuropehaverecentlypublishedpapersthatindicateactivityinthisfield.One'
Europeanresearchunit,theClimaticResearchUnitattheUniversityofEastAnglia,isalmosttotallycommittedtothereconstruction of
pastclimates.The.foremostobjectiveoftheworkinthisUnitisthe:
reconstruction ofpastclimatesonaglobalscalewithspecificatten­tiontotheAtlantic/Europeansectors.Theworkislargelycarripd
outby^ateamofatmosphericscientistsincollabofationwithotherscientistsatafullmulti-interdisciplinary level.
2.2.PRESENTSTATE,OFKNOWLEDGEABOUTCLIMATEANDPROBLEMS
RAISEDTHEREBY /
allclimatoio9ical
2.2.1,||nerai_Research'onClimatr--."••'
|s.Prsssntunderstoodinitsbroadcharacter1s->1cs.butst)velylittleknowledgeaboutthemajorprocessesclimatic.change.Inother-words,themechanismofclin^K .--5
*>;

-6- XI1/387/78-EN
understood Inanydetail sufficient forinstance toallow climato­
logists toforecast climatic conditions .
Itistherefore essential that thescientific community beallo­
wedtoincrease substantially theamount ,ofdata available about the
various components oftheclimatic system .-Without
these data ,theories would remain largely unchecked andeven thebest
model would beoflitfcle use .
Overall available data aresofaronly fragmentary anddonotallow
ustodecide forexample which arethemost important causes ofcli­
matic variations ,orwhich arethemost sensitive ofthemany proces­
sesinvolved intheinteractions ofvarious components oftheclimatic
system .
Wealso ignore howmuch ofthelong-term variations ,sofarknown
tohave occurred ,depends oncyclic regularities (ofwhich thecauses
should beascertained ),andhowmuch onpurely random processes .
All these questions must clearly beanswered before weeven attempt
toconsider theultimate question ofclimate predictability .This
last andall-important problem will besolved only after :
(a)both theory anddynamical models have been further developed
andapplied ;
(b)thedata bases not/available have been greatly extended ,both
inspace and intime . *
2.2.2 .Research onWan-Climate Interactions ~
When wecome toconsider thevast andhitherto largely inexplored
field ofman-climate interactions ,thesame situation ofapoor or
insufficient knowledge isencountered .Inthis case however itis
notonly aquestion ofalack ofscientific evidence :climatic varia­
bility ,either natural orman-indiced ,maycreate serious problems
forourpresent economic andsocial structure .
Oureconomic andsocial stability isstrongly climate-dependent .
Theclimates ,ofourplanet have always been changing ,andwithout
anydoubt they witl continue todosointhefuture .What wed0not
know ishowlarge these future changes will be,andhowrapidly they
wi.ll occur .
Amajor climatic change would bring about worldwide economic and
social readjustments ,since theevolution oftheglobal patterns of
food production andpopulation hasbeen sofarlargely controlled
byclimatic conditions .
Atpresent ,world grain reserves areonly afewpercent of
annual consumption ;theoccurrence ofanunfavourable climatic
period ,coupled with theincreasing fooddemands ofanexploding
population ,could play havoc .Wedonothave therefore towait for
anewiceageinorder toseeouragricultural system devastated .
Amajor social oreconomical disaster could babrought about bya
relatively minor climatic change ,such asweofthose that have so
often occurred ,even intherecent past .

*7– XII/387/78-EN
Similarconsiderations applytowaterresources,whetherwe
considerthemfromthestandpointofdomesticuse,orirriga-,
tion,orelectricpowergeneration,orindustrialuse.Here
toopopulationgrowth,theexpansionoftownsandin-•
dustrialdevelopmentareputtinganincreasingstrainonare­
sourcewhichisalreadybecomingscarce.Thuswhileunfavou­
rableclimaticconditionscouldmakethatscarcitygreater,one
mightonthecontrarywishthattheywerefavourableInorder .
tocopewithdemandsandbuildupreserves.
Althoughweknowthatwaterandfoodresourcesdependon.
climate>weignorethepreciserelationships definingthat
dependenceinaquantitative way.Henceanurgentneedfor
well-planned scientificresearch.
Theproblemismademoreseriousbythepossibilitythat
climatechangesmaybetheconsequenceofhumanactivities .,
Manissteadilymodifyingmanyofthefactorswhichareknown
todetermineclimate.Suchmodifications maybesmall,butfor,
climate,ingeneral,thereisnoaprioriwayofdecidingthe
magnitudeoftheeffectfromthatofthecause,sincepositive
feedbackmechanisms'couldactasarnplifiers"ofseeminglysmallinitialperturbations .
Manisforinstancechangingthechemicalcompositionofthe...,•
atmospherebyallkindsofpollutants,andinparticularbybur­
ningfossilfuels'thatsteadilyincreasethaconcentration of
cnrbondioxide.Manisdestroyingforests,whichalsoincreases -
theatmosphericcarbondioxidecontentwhilealteringthesurface
albedoandthus,affectingtheearth'sradiationbalance..Manis
alsopouringlargequantitiesofheatintotheatmosphere,thus
perturbingtheplanet'senergybudget.
.2.2.3.Surrminqup- -•
Alttfvtspointsto.asituationwhichingeneraltermscanbe
brieflydescribedasfollows;
(a)Weknowthatclimateisessentiallychangeable;wedo:-
'notknowtheprecisecausesofitschanges. "
<b)Weknowthatcl-imaticchangesmayoccuratany-time/I'
wealsoknowthatmanmighthavearoleindetermining "
•themwedonot"knowwhenorwheretheycouldoccur.
(c)Weknowthateven.relativelysmallchanges.mightproduce
•importanteffects';we.donotknowthequantitative
relationships Linkingclimaticchangesto;thepossible
changesinthe.variablesimportanttoman'slifeand>.-»•*£~'
being.
Weneedthereforeto.concentrateoureffortstoward;;5-,-sim
ofeliminatingasmanyaspossibleofpurpresentuncHn~ties,soastoavoidasmanyaspossibleofthethr-•?.3"thatclimaticvariability .mayhaveinstoreforus.

-8- XI1/387/78-EN
3.MOTIVATION fORACLIMATOLOGY PROGRAMME OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Climate hasmoved totheforeground ofpublic interest during therecent
years ,when climatic events ofanunusual character have convinced most
people that there isnowarranty for^nyassumpt ionof.cIimatic constancy
over thespan oftime forwhich economic planning isundertaken ,
Theimplications ofclimatic variability areserious ;compared with
recent decades ,there continues tobearisk foradverse weather conditions ,
,which aretobefeared especially fortheir occurrence during sowing ,growingandharvesting seasons .
Many climatic extremes have occurred during the1960s and1970s (see
an<?theeconomic andsocial impacts ofsome ofthese have been
ratner drastic :global grain reserves have dwindled -tonegligible amounts •
food markets andprices have been upset ;there isnowarealthreat ofstar­
vation tomillions ofpeople indeveloping countries .
Climatic change istherefore notonly asubject oftheoretical interest •
themostcompelling reasons foritsstudy areinfactthegrowing awareness
thatoureconomic andsocial structures aredeeply influenced byclimate ,
while mansactivities themselves maybeable tocontribute toclimate 's
mstabi Iity^possibly inanundesirable direction .
.Th:VStrue inParticuUr fortheECCountries which areclosely interre­
lated bot.ieconomically andsocially ,andwhich share regional climates ex­
tending across political boundaries .Thus anymajor impact ,whether of
climatic .variability onnatural resources orofhuman activities onclimate ,
could never belimited toanyoneEuropean country .Inthisrespect itmay
alsobeobserved that theECCountries cover anareawhich hastheideal
dimensions forthe .study ofregional impacts ,asdistinguished from localormicroclimatic ,anaglobal effects . -
-Water isoneofthe®ostimportant resources tobeconsidered atCommunity
•! reolenisnment depend onthehydrological cycle ,andthelatter
.soneofthemaincomponents oftheclimatic system .TheCommunity 'sa«en-
tion .isalready .ocussed onwater resources ^theneedhaving beenrealised
ofamuchstricter planning andcontrol inviewoftheeconomic growth urban "concentration andevendeficiency ,ofwater incertain areas ,thr^tenino to
necess^^rhas'thr'J^^f' especially ofagriculture andindustry .The "necess.ty hastherefore been recognized oftaking account ofth°intprden^n -
°ftneVsHous environmental factors ,which cannot bemanaged separ^ely CD.
Zs.also concerned with theprotection ofparticular areas .
régions ,whose fragility <soil and
toérosion and «ari™ic r* -1_i-_ P-rncjiariy subject toerosion andvarious natural disasters lite -.uai u
landsl idesandflooding ofstreams <2).Here .-gaint(i„„comes tothefoJeg^ound .
•1)' ontheEnv^ronmpn +f1077.,Oai,
Council Resolution of17May197/,ojwo.c139^ 29-30 98
OJN°.C139,p.25

Tf-""", ,' .'bJ9L>. ;XI1/387/78-EN.
!Asregardsgeneralcriteria,thepresentprogramme proposal meetsthe'>
fourgeneralobjectives oftheCommunity Scienceandtechnology policy(I)?
whîchare: i .•\ ' ...'
Ci)thelong-term supplyofresources ;
tii>thepromotion ofinternationally competitive economic development ;
(iii)theimprovement ofthelivingandworkingconditions -;
(iv)theprotection oftheenvironment andnature. ^
Generalcriteria (1)arealsometieffectiveness (greaterefficiency
atCommunity level;thisasregardsinparticular interdisciplinary studies
anddatamanagement ),transnational natureandcommonrequirements (the •
satisfaction ofneedscommontoallECCountries ,e.g.asregardsenvironment ,
resource planning,pollution control,dataacquisition ,,etc.).
Climateresearchj[sgoingonalreadyatthenational levelinmostEC
Countries .But,forthereasonsexplained above,climatology isafield
ofendeavour wherecoordinated efforts aremostneeded.European competences
areunevenly distributed ,andanECprogramme wouldbringtogether thebest
specialists available ineachdiscipline ,thusmakingthebestuseoftheir
knowledge andexperience ,besidesencouraging presentefforts andstimulating
newresearch inafieldofgrowinginterest .
Itishoweverunderstood that,duetotheglobalnatureofclimatevaria-..
tions,anECclimate programme shouldberegarded asacontribution toI
worldwide efforts suchastheGlobalAtmospheric Research Programme (GARP)
sponsored bytheWorldMeteorological Organization andtheInternational
CouncilofScientific Unions,ortheWorldClimate Programme ,whichisnow'
beingplannedbytheWorldMeteorological Organisation incollaboration
withotherinternational organisations .Thefirstofthesetwoprogrammes
correspond toResearch AreaIofthepresentproposal ;thesecondto
Research AreaII. i/»■
m
(1)CommonPolicyinthefieldofScienceandTechnology,'W^t-nes ",
C0M(77)283 ;R/1659/77(RECH 16).'
f>
4
;v
?
i
4M)!*HA *>iIi

."-ïïoX""" XI1/387/78-EN
4.DETAILED DESCRIPTION OFTHEPROGRAMME
4.1.GENERAL REMARKS
Climate maybeconsidered both<i)byitselfasoneofthemany
facetsofthenaturalworldand(ii)asapartofman'senvironment
andassuchininteractive relationships withman'sactivities .
Onthesegroundstworesearch areashavebeennaturally considered
forthepresentprogramme,thefirsthavingitsmainemphasis on
climate'smechanism,thesecondontheinteractions between manand
climate. • .
Indealing withctimatemechanism ,underResearch Area1,explicit
mention hasbeenmadeofmathematical modelsasanobvious meansof
dealingwiththeproblem.Elsewhere moreexperimental methods may
havebeenstressed .
Itshould beunderstood however thatnoconstraint is
putingeneral onthemeanswhereby agivenproblemcouldbesolved.
Variousmethodological approaches areinprinciple applicable tothe
severalresearch itemsdescribed lateron.-Theyincludeforinstance
(a>Experimental research ;measurements andmonitoring activities ;
(b)Statistical evaluations ofclimatological records;
(c>Simulation ,diagnosis andprojection studies,asregardsboth
long-andshort-term climaticvariability andimpacts.
Toproperly imptement theprogramme ,ithasbefoundadvisable to
alsosuggesttheestablishment of:
(1)agroupofclimatic expertsespecially appointed tostudy
thepossible impactsduetotheinteractive relationships
between manandclimate.;
(1i>asystemofdatastorage,enrichment andmanagement,whereby
up-to-dateclimatic datamaybefreelyandrapidlyaccessible
toallresearchworkers concerned
4.2.RESEARCH AREAS
4.2.1.?®search_Area_I :"UnderstandinqClimate"
4.2.1.1.Objectives
Thegeneralobjectiveofthisresearchareaisthatofgaininga
deeperinsiahtintothemechanism andtherefore thebehaviour of
clif^ce,theultimategoalbeingclimateprediction,especially on
ausefuUyshort-term (weekstodecades)scale*Toachievethatgoal1tisnecessary :

(1)~Toreconstruct thepastrecordofclimateinasmuch -
detail,overasmuchoftheEarthandas'farbackin
'timeasdataandinterpretative techniques permit;
(ii)Toanalysethatrecordsoastobeabletodetermine
thecausesofthechangesobserved; *•
(i1i)Toimprovetheoretical understanding andknowledge
ofthedevelopment ofclimate,the'circulation proces­
sesintheatmosphere andoceansandtheinteractions
involved -andthenatureoftheimpactofexternal
influences .. ,•-
Clearlytheseobservational andtheoretical attacksareclo-^
selyinterlinked andneedtobepursued handinhand,byalso
takingadvantage ofdataobtainable throughresearch work,in
Research AreaII..
A.2.1.2.Research ThemesunderResearch AreaI 'x
1.1.Reconstruction ofPastClimates *
Thepastvariability ofclimateonlongtimescalescanprovide ,'
valuable information onthedynamics oftheclimate system.
Furthermore ,inordertoobtainreliable -statistics ,thesampling
periodofacontinuous statistical processshouldbeconsiderably
longerthanthefluctuation periodsofinterest .Thereisa '•**"
convincing evidence thatclimatic changes andvariability havebeen
significantly betterinthepastthanintheshortperiodof
instrumental observation onaglobalscale(ca.100years).There
isalsoagrowingevidenceofquiteabruptclimatic changeswhich
wouldbereallycatastrophic tomankindiftheywouldrepeat.For
thesereasonstheanalysis ofpastclimates shouldbe.animportant
contribution tothepresent Programme .
Thereexistsawealthofunexplored historical information -on
climateinEuropewhichshouldbecollected andorganized .These
includeboth(a)Natural Records and(b)Observational andother'
Historical Records. V;V
(a)includesforexamplefossiltypesofdatasuchastree-rings ;
year-layers 1r>lakesediments,riverestuaries andice-sheets ;
.concentrations ofstableisotopesofoxygen,carbon,nitrocen ,
etc.intheWoodsubstance oftree-rings andintheIceof.
ice-sheets ;pollenanalyses;analysisofinsectsandmarine
microfaunes 1nthesedimentary records,etc.
(b>includesforexamplerecordsofmeasurements madeinthepast
aboutmeteorological parameters ,asweltasreported dataabout
floods,frosts,harvests,disastres causedbyweather,t'c.;
Suchrecordsshouldbeexplored andanalysedinsuchawayisto
bringtotightthecirculation processes intheatmosphere =>:trie
oceans,and-anyexternalInfluences (solar/,tidal,,volcani ?orother)
whichundertied thechangesmadeevident bytherecordsthemselves .

-12- XII/3S7/78-EN
1.2.Climatemodellingandprediction
Theultimategoalofclimatemodellingisclimateprediction,
anditisobviousthatsocietyisinterestedinclimaticpre­
dictionsoftimescalesfromthelimitofdetailedweatherpre­
dictions(say,twoweeks)tomanyyears.Apartfromtheimmediate
relevancetosociety,thistimescaleintervalisalsomorepro-,
m'isingfortheoreticalstudiesthanthelongertimescalesbecause
ofthebetteravailability ofdata.
Studiesaimedmorespecifically attheproblemofforecasting
climateshouldthereforebeencouraged,andinthiscontextthree
mainpossiblegrowthpointscanbeidentified:
(a)ASystem-Analysis Approach -
Thetechniquesofsystemanalysisshouldbeusedinorder
toprovideextrapolation techniquesusefulforperiods
oftheorderofmagnitudeofonemohth.
Atechniquecurrentlyusedatpresentconsists^"inselecting
aso-called"historicalantecedent"toapresentsituation
fromclimaticarchives. .--
Assumingthetwosituationstobeidentical,theyshould
haveanidenticalevolution.Theproblemisheretoidentify
andcorrectlyselectthoseparametersthatcanactasuseful
predictorsof-climatic change.Thetechniqueofsystemana­
lysisshouldbeusedforthe.selectionofsuchpredictors,
withtheadvantage^stthechoicewouldbeguidedbysynoptic
"aswellasbydynamical -criteria. '
(fa)Atmospheric Circulation Models
Anattemptshouldbemadeatdevelopingnumericalmodelsof.
theatmosphericcirculationdirectedspecificallyatthe
problemofclimateprediction.Appropriatesimplifications '
ofthe.detailedgeneralcirculationmodelscouldbeguided ,
bytheuseofspecialanalysesofglobalatmosphericdataand
•bytheexistingGeneralCirculation Models,Onewouldin
thiswaydevelopandtestnumericalmodelsw,ithrelatively ;
fewdegreesoffreedomcomparedtothedetailedGCMs,and
performanalysesofatmosphericdatarelevanttothedesign
ofsuchmodels.Testcasesshouldincludenotonly"normal"
climaticconditions,butalsospectacularexcursionslikethe
,droughtinnorth-western Europeduring1976.Careshouldbe
takentoincludeinsuchmodelsapropertreatmentcfthe
physicalprocessesattheair-landandair-oceaninterfaces,
ahydrologicalcycleendatreatmentoftheuppermixedlayeroftheocean.
COSlowlyvaryingelements
Astheperiodsofthepredictionoftheatmospherebecome
longer,itisalmostcertainthatthedetailedatmospheric
.descriptionwillplayalesserrole,whiletheoceansandthe
otherslow-responsepartsoftheclimaticsystemwillplaya,
greaterrole.Ithas.thusbeenrealisedrecentlythatpredic­tionm.delsforthelongesttimescalemustconcentrateonthe
evolutionoftheslowest-response parts.Modelsofthisnature
areintheirinfancy,butgivegreatpromiseforfurtherdevelopment.

-13 -'■XII/3:'78-£1
Oneshouldthereforetry-•*developmodelsforclimatepre­
dictions'concentrating onthe:■;*tsoftheclimatic systemwithti.3
slowestresponse (continental sheet,deepcirculations ofthe
oceans,changesinvegetation andsnowcoveroverlandendofdrif-_
tingseaice>.Itwillberequiredtoincludethephysicsofthe
slowly-varying components,theirinteractions andthespecification
ofti'nstatistical representations ofthefaster-response components
ofthesystem.Themodelsshouldbetestedandattemptsshouldmade
tomakeexperimental forecasts for100years.
4.2.2.ResearchAreaII:"Resear£h_on_Man-C IimateInteractions ^
4.2.2.1.Objectives
Ifoneconsiders short-term needsandimpacts,thepresent oneis
probablythemostimportantfieldofresearch.Recentproblems
-concerning theavailability anddistribution offoodfwaterand
energyhaveraisedthegenerallevelofconcernabouttheimpactscf
climateonman'sresources,aswellasaboutthepossible impacts
ofhumanactivities onclimate. ..., •
Theobjective oftheresearch .worktobeperformed inthisarea
shouldtherefore bethatofassessing inanasprecise andquantita­
tivewayaspossible (1)therelationships betweenclimatevariability
andtheavailabi-lity,spacewise andtimewise,ofimportant resourced ,.
and(2)theimpactsthat.certain humanactivities coulclhaveonclimate
Theassessment ofsuchrelationships andimpactswillbe.typically -
theresultofaninterdisciplinary study.Forthisreason,besides
theimplementation ofspecific researchprojects withinthepresent
Research Area,theestablishment ofanInterdisciplinary Group
isproposed (seebelowunder ."SpecialActivities ").
4.2.2.2.Research ThemesunderResearch AreaII
Sinceman-climate interactions canbeconsidered bothways,Research
AreaIIincludesnaturally thefollowing tworesearch themes.
II.1.ClimaticVariability andEuropean Resources
' ■•- ■• C
(a?Impacts onLandandWaterResources
Climaticvariability affectslandandwaterresources inmany-
foldways.Thisclearlyappliestosuchnaturalhazards a
droughts andfloods,aswellastosurfaceandgroundwater-
demandsforenergy,domestic andagricultural purposes .
Properlandandwaterresources management ,especiallyi.:view
ofhazardreduction,requirestherefore thatoneisabUto
obtainaknowledge ofthefrequency andmagnitudes ofp<.;>;.
andpresentclimatic changes.
\ " •'- '' ' '•.
Waterresourceplanningisbasedatpresent onstatistical
andprobability predictions .Therefore theextension t!ie
/historical recordsconcerning runoffshouldallow1®*'raye.l
estlmates oftheprobability offuturestreamflow
ThiskindofInformation 1sImportantinforecasting .fchoevai-
labilityofdomesticwater,Irrigation waterandhydr^l^stric
power. - ••

-14-
>XI1/387/78-EN
Researchshouldthereforebefocussedonthequantitative
relationships betweenspecificchangesinclimaticva­
riablesandtheoccurrenceandavailability ofsurface
andgroundwater.Rechargeprocesses/whichareknown
tobesensitivetoclimaticconditions,shouldbeinves­
tigatedinthisrespect.
Soilmoistureandvegetationaremutuallylinked:the
effectsofchangesineitheroftheseshouldbestudied
inrelationshiptospecifiedclimaticconditions.
\'
Rainfalloutlooks,limitedatpresenttoonemonthahead,
shouldalsobeimproveduponandcastintermsofprobabi­
lityorrangesof*expectedvalyesinordertobeproperly
used.Spatialandtemporalcorrelations,knownastele-
connections,shouldbesystematically exploredtothese
/purposes.
Theagricultural communityneedsmonthlyorseasonalrain­
fallandtemperaturepredictionsforthegrowingseason
severalmonthsinadvance,inordertoplancroptypes,
seedvarietiesandfertilizerneeds.Suppliersmayneed
longertimes,and.governmentplannersandpolicymakersmay
wantevenlongerperiods,possiblyoneyearinadvance.
Extensivenewobservations oftherelevantparametersshould
begatheredanddiagnosticalty analysedinordertohelpthe
construction ofnewstatisticalpredictionformulasandthe.
generationoffurtherhypothesesfortestingwithpropermo­
dels.Thehighestpriorityshouldbegiventoresearchaimed
atdevelopingyearlyprojectiontechniques.
(b)ClimaticHazardsEvaluation
Aspecialfieldofendeavouristheevaluationofthepro­
babilityofoccurrenceofsuchextraordinary yeteconomically
andsociallyimportanteventsasdisasters,likefloodsand
droughts,causedbyclimaticconditions.
Floodhazardplanningcouldbeimprovedbytheextensionof
ourknowledgeaboutpastfloodrecurrence,usingevidence
fromthegeologicalrecords,coupledwiththeevaluationof
changesinthesurfacerunoffcharacteristics .
' ' (-'
Similarconsiderations applytosnowhazards,suchassnow
avalanchesinmountainregionsandsnowhazardstobuildings
andcommunications inregionswheresnowfallsarenormallylightorinfrequent.

-15- •XI1/387/78-EN
Droughtsarealsoakindofhazardthatproperlyorientedclimaticresearchcouldhe.lppredictingandbeingprepared
against,especiallyinviewofapropermanagementofwater
resources . • ,
(c)ImpactsonEnergyRequirements,UseandProduction
Climatehasaprofoundinfluenceontheamountof..;vwer
required,andevenon,themeanswherebypowerisgenerated
(forinstanceelectricalenergyfromwaterreservoirs,solar
energyinsunnyregions).Conversely,powergenerationand'
usemayaffectclimdte,throughthermalorchemicalpollution
oftheatmosphere.
Apartfromgeneralclimaticeffects,aknowledgeoftheclima­ticconditionsUkel'ytobeexperienced byanygivenregionis
necessaryforplanningbothsiteselectionandplantdesign
andoperation.Especiallyneededisabettercapabilityof
relatingthedispersionofairbornepollutants,especially
thoseofatoxickind,withambientclimateconditions.Such
informationisparticularly lackingforirregularzonessuch'
^asmountain-valley complexes,coastalregionsandforestareas.
Besidestheirrelevancetohydroelectric powerproduction,
waterflowforecastsandprecipitation outlooksareimportant
forcoolingplantsnecessarytonuclearandfossil'powerplants,
sinceabout60%oftheenergyproducedisdissipatedasheat.
Forthisreasontherainfallandrunoffprospectsofanygiven
regionhaveamarkedinfluenceonenergyproduction.
Finally,climaticforecastsoroutlookshaveanobviousrele­
vancetotheplanningofenergyproductioninviewofheating
.andcoolingneeds.
II.2.Man'sImpactsonClimate
Ithasbeenrecognizedthatman'sactivities canaffecttiieclimate
oftheearth,possiblyinanunfavourable way/Inadvertentclimate
modifications areheremeant,andamongthevariouspossibleresearch
fieldsthefollowinghavebeenselected.
.(a)Atmospheric ChemicalPollution,withaspecialemphasison,
.CarbonDioxiderelease
Directcontamination oftheatmosphereisoneofthemostobvious
ofman'sinfluencesonhisenvironment,onemoreoverthatcan.
havedirecteffectsonclimate.
Particlesandcertaintracegasesinfluencetheheatbalance
oftheatmospherebychangingthefluxofsolarandinfrared
radiation.Particlesarealsoinvolvedintheinitiationof
condensation andfreezinginclouds.

-16- XI1/387/78
\f*•v - - '
Among gaseous products ,byfarthemost important
foritspossible impacts onclimate iscarbon dioxide ,
which manhasbeen pouring into theatmosphere since
thebeginning oftheindustrial era.Thus CO,concen­
tration hasincreased from about 290ppm bytneyear 1860
toabout 320ppmby1970 ,that isabout a10%increase
in110years .Butsince C02concentration isgrowing
exponentially ,thenext 10%increase would only take 20
years ,and a100% increase would occur after 50years ,
that isby2020 . ^
Such adoubling oftheCO^global concentration couldeffect anincrease ,ofthetemperature near theearth 's
surface byabout 2°C.Such awarming would constitute
aserious climatic modification which could lead to
irreversible effects ,such asthedestruction ofthe ?
Arctic Sea icewith adrastic shift ,ofall climatic
belts northwards .While adisappearance ofthefloating
Arctic sea icewould have noimmediate effect onsea
level ,thepossibility ofalarge-scale surge ofAntarctic
shelf-ice hasbeen suggested ,which would cause adanger
ofinundations over lowcoastal regions .
Various hypotheses have tobetested inthis connection ;
forinstance ,theearlier assumption ofapermanent 50%
storage intheocean andthebiosphere ofthe released
fossil CO-,maybeuntenable .Increased deforestation may
prevent tnebiological storage ofimportant quantities
ofCO^,while thestorage intheoceanic upper mixing
layer could only last afewdecades ,because ofthe low
mixing rate with the cold layers below the -thermocline .
Large amounts ofCQ?could therefore bereleased bythe
oceans sooner orlater andthis process would beintensi­
fied byaslow acidification Cdue topollution )and
warming (duetothe"greenhouse effect "ofCO^itself )
oftheupper mixing layer .Onthis basis afivefold
increase intheCO^concentration after 100years cannot
beexcluded ifthe use offossil fuels were tocontinue
unchecked atthepresent growth rate .
Ontheother hand ,scientists arenotunanimous asregards
thetemperature impact ofsuch anincrease .Estimates of
themean temperature rise duetoCO.,vary ,andthenet
temperature change which could resutt against theobserved
cooling trend since 1940 isnot certain .
Itappears therefore that oneofthehighest priorities
inthepresent Programme should beassigned totheC02accumulation problem inorder toassess precisely :
^i)past sndprésent C02concentrations ;
<ii)sources andsinks ofC02,andtheir evolution intime
(iii)exchange rates between thevarious compartments of
theclimatic system ;
Civ)climatic andother environmental impacts .

-M- XII/38Î778 EN
Theassessment ofsuchfactosshouldbearrivedatthroughboto
appliedresearch andpropermodelling .Monitoring shouldbeprovided
byanumberof'stationssuitably chosenorpossiblyestablished tothe.
present purpose. ^
(b)ReleaseofEnergy
Thermalpollution isalsoacauseforconcern,sincemanisthereby
significantly contributing totheenergy ^budgetofthe'earthbyburning 1
'fossilfuels:coal,gasandpetroleum products .Therapidlyincreasing /
contribution fromnuclearpowerplantsmustalsotoboincluded inany
futureprojections .For1970theglobalenergyproduction hasbeen
estimated atabout6xlO^9cal/year,Distributed' evenlyoverall
continents thisenergyamountcorresponds toasmallfraction ofthenet
solarradiation attheearth'ssurface ;buttheannualgrowthrateof
energyproduction hasbeengradually rising,withanaverageglobal
increaseofabout4-5%annually,according toUNdata.Thisisequivalent
toarisebyafactorof3to4in30years.Therewillbetherefore ■'
manyareasir»theworldinwhichtheadditional energyinputwillapproach ;s
theorderofmagnitude ofthenatural netradiation .TheECenergy
outputfor1976canbecalculated fromECdata(1)tohavebeen7.5x10^
Kcal,whichcorresponds toabout0.6Wm~2.Anassumedgrowth o_f3%per
yearwouldbringtheaverageenergyoutputtoabout1.2Wm~2bytheyear
2000andtoabout5.2Wm~^bytheyear2050,thesolarradiation atthe *
earth'ssurfacebeingabout100Wm~2.Thosebeingaveragevalues,clearly
urbanandindustrial areaswouldaddmuchmoretothenatural radiation
input.Forinstance,thevalueforWestBerlinhasbeenabout21Wm~2
duringtheyears1965to1968,anditwasalready 19Wm~2forSheffield
•in1952(2)
Theeffectsofurbanandregional heatsources onContinental andglobal
climatearehoweveruncertain ;wecanspeculate thatthereisapossi­
bilitythatsuchareasmaysoonerorlatertrigger somechangesinthe,
,localorlarge-scale weatherpatterns .Acertain amountofresearch
workshouldbedirected towardstheassessment ofthepossibility and
themagnitude ofsuchchanges. :
i ' " ' »
4.3.SPECIAL ACTIVITIES
4.3.1.Objectives 1
Theobjectives oftheworktobeperformed under"SpecialActivities "
correspond tofourbasicneeds,namely: N
<i)tocorrelate inapanoramic andsynthetic viewthedatacoli^-ed*
underResearch AreasIandII;
<1)OverallEnergyBalanceSheets(1963-1976),Statistical Offica the
European Communities ,Luxembourg ,December 1977.
Inadvertent ClimateModifications ,SMICReport,MIT<1971>

-18 XII/387/78-EN
(ii)toprovidesuitable diagnoses andprojections concerning
climaticvariability andimpacts;
(iii)toprovidesuitable instruments andservicesforclimato­
logicalresearch.y ^
4.3.2.Specific_Instrumente,and_Ser vices
ι
(a)AEuropeanInterdisciplinary GroupfortheStudyof
Climatic Impacts
Scientific disciplines appliedtoclimatological research
maybeorbecomesohighlyspecialized thatthenecessary
comprehensive viewofthewholemaybelostinindividual
efforts.Yet,duetothehighlyinteractive natureofall
climatic orclimate-related factors,climatologi caIresearch
istypically onewhereapanoramic viewhastobemaintained
atallcosts.Hencethenecessity ofestablishing anInter­
disciplinary Groupwhosetaskshouldbetotakecareof
needs(i)and(ii)statedabove.TheGroupshouldinclude
anumberofEuropean Expertsinvariousdisciplines selected
onthebasisoftheirrelevance toandcomplementarity in
climatological research .
(b)Inventory ,coordination andenrichment ofEuropean Climatic
DataSets
Climatological research ingeneral andprojection studies
inparticular willrequireextensive datacollections .Various
centresinEuropepossessorarebuilding upsuchdatacollec­
tionseitherfrommodernobservations orfromnatural orhis­
toricalrecords *Tomakethebestpossible useofsuchawork
intheframeofthepresent Programme,itappearsessential
Ci)that,aninventory oftheexisting European datasets,
sourcesandformatsbeestablished andregularly updated;
>(ii)thatpractical meansbedevisedtofavourtheexchange
ofdatabetweenthevariouscentres,andtheirgeneral
availability tothescientific community ;
(iii)that new,usefuldatasetsfromoutsidetheEECMember
Statesbeacquired .

-19- XII/387/78-EN
5.IMPLEMENTATION ,FUNDINGANDMANAGEMENT OFTHEPROGRAMME
Thisprogrammewillbeimplementedasanindirectactionbymeans
ofcost-sharingcontractswithprivateandpublicresearchinstitutions
intheMemberStates.ItwillbemanagedbytheCommissionServices,
assistedbyanAdvisoryCommitteeonProgrammeManagement
Theindirectactionshouldbecoupledtoanefforttocoordinatethe
ongoingresearchactivitiesintheMemberStates,wHchwillallow:'
(a)todefinepreciselytheprojects,,complementary to:hoseresearch
activities,whichshouldbefinancedatCommunitylevel;
(b)toavoiduselessduplication ;
(c)topromotethecooperation ofscientistsactive 1inthefieldof
climatology intheMemberStates,
Themaximumcontribution bytheCommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities
fortheentire5-yearperiod(1979-1983)isestimatedat8.000.000 EUA.
Therelativedistribution offundsbetweenthevariouspartsofthepro­
grammewillbedecidedbytheCommissionandtheAdvisoryCommitteeafte
definitionoftheinternalprioritiesoftheprogrammeandexamination
ofallresearchproposalssubmitted. * ~ 'J
tentatively ,therelative ■distribution offundscouldbeapproximately
thefollowing :• ,. v
ResearchAreaI:40% -,
■' ' « . "v •• .1,
ResearchAreaII:40% '
SpecialActivities :20%
Theprogrammewillbesubmittedaftertwoyearsto.reviewandpossible
revisiononthebasisofresultsachievedandnewresearchneeds.
Consequently,initialcontractswillbelimitedtoaperiodof2or3
years,subjecttoextensionifwarranted.Moreover,consideringthetransfrontier characterofclimaticproblems,provisionswillbe
madetooffertoCOSTcountriestoparticipateintheresearchprdtaramme.

20- XII/387/78-EN
APPENDIX
SOMENOTEWORTHY WEATHER EXTREMES SINCE1960
(courtesy byOr.T.H.Morth)~~
1961 Extraordinary yieldoftheequatorial rainsineastAfrica;
thegreatlakesthereroseinafewmonthstoaboveall
twentieth centuryrecords.
1962-63 ColdestwinterinEnglandsince1740.
1962-65 Driest4-yearperiodintheeasternUnitedStatessince
records beganin1738.
1963-64 DriestwinterinEngland andWalessince1743.
ColdestwinteroveranareafromthelowerVolgabasin
tothePersian Gulfsince1745. '
. >
1964-65 Supposedly ice-free portofMurmansk,onthesouthcoast
oftheBarents Sea,blocked bytheArcticpack-ice for
thefirsttimeknown.
1964 SnowcoveredalltheuplandsofSouthAfricaandSouth-
WestAfricainJune,theheaviest andmostwidespread
snowfall theresince ,1895<,causing manydeaths.
.1965-66 BalticSeacompletely ice-covered .
1968 Icehalf-surrounded Iceland andstoppedshipping forthe
firsttimefor80years,since1888.
>
1968-73 ,Severest phaseoftheprolonged droughtintheCapeVerde
Islands,theAfricanSahelandEthiopia,surpassing all
twentieth centuryrecordsforlengthandseverity combined .
1968 Slow-moving cyclones produced on4occasions 2-dayrainfalls
and exceeding theonce-in-50-yearsexpectation inseveral low-
1969 land.districts of.England andIreland.
1960-69 DriestdecadeincentralChilesincethe1790s.
1969 Lowestfrequency ofWesterly winddaysinBritainforover"
109years,possibly since1785.
1971 Barometric pressure mapforthemonthofSeptember showed
anomalies inthreeareas(NorthAmerica,NorthAtlantic
andSiberia)amounting to5standarddeviations fromthe
averagevaluesfortheearlierpartofthecentury.

-?1~ *11/387/78"EN
Coldestwinterofrecordinpa.tsof-easternRussia
andTurkey:RiverTigrisfrozenoverineasternTurkey.
Highestsummertemperatures sverobservedinnorthern
RussiaandFinland :33°CinLapland.
Greatestdroughtformanyyearscausedgeneralshortfa'll
oftheharvests inRussiaandSovietAsia.
Numberoficebergs (1,587)onthewesternAtlantic south
of48°Nexceeded (by250)'anyprevious yearsincerecords
beganin1880.
GreatLakesofNorthAmericaandMississippi Riverat
highestlevelsince1844,following severalnotablywet
years.
Mexicosharingthedroughtaffecting AfricaattheSame
latitude :theseverest droughtincentralAmerica ,for
manyyears.
SnowagaininSouthAfrica.FirsteverreportofSnow
onhighgroundinQueensland ,northeast Australia .
Floodsbeyondallprevious reported experience inJanuary,
stretching acrossthecentralAustralian deserttothe
northwest andeastofthecontinent ,endedsuccession of
greatdrought summers.' :.;.
MildestwinterinEnglandsince1834.' -
Virtually noiceontheBalticSea,leasticesince
perhaps 1652. ,
Greatheat-wave inwestern Europeabout4-11thAugust,
meantemperatures "fortheweekintheNetherlands and
Denmark (about24°C)exceeding previous highest by
over2°C.
TheArctic seaicereturned toIcelandforthefirst '
timeinJulyinthetwentieth century.'
Greatdroughtinwestern andcentral-northern Europe,
especially England,' whererainfall fromMay1975onwards
for16monthswerethelowestsincethebeginning ofthe"
recordin1727.
GreatheatinJune-early Julyinwestern Europe :tempe­
raturesovera24-dayperiodinEnglandexceeding by
about4°Cthehighestmonthly meaninthe300-year record.-
•Verycold,wetsummerinRussiaandpartsofCanada..
Droughts between *ApriIandAugustinalargenumberof
tropical andsubtropical areasincluding SriLanka,West
Africaandnorthern Chile,followed bylargerainfall ex-.>
cessesin-October.
SimilarlargerainfallexcessesduringSeptember andOctoberfollowing thedroughtinnorthwestern Europe.
Tropical cyclones (hurricanes )ofextremeseverityaffecting
Madagascar (January-March )andMexico(October).

PROPOSAL
FORA
COUNCIL DECISION
adopting amultiannual research programme
fortheEuropean Economic Community inthefield
ofClimatology (indirect action,(1979-1983 )
THECOUNCIL OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ,-
HavingregardtotheTreatyestablishing theEuropean Economic
Community,andin.particularArticle 235thereof,
Havingregardtotheproposal fromtheCommission ,
1
HavingregardtotheopinionoftheEuropean Parliament (1),
HavingregardtotheopinionoftheEconomic andSocial
Committee (2), ('
Whereas,pursuant toArticle 2oftheTreaty,theCommunity
hasthetaskofpromoting throughout theCommunity aharmonious
development ofeconomicactivities ,acontinuous andbalanced
expansion andanaccelerated raisingofthestandard ofliving;
Whereas,initsresolution of14January 1974onafirstaction
programme oftheEuropean Communities inth-efieldofscience
andtechnology (3),theCouncitstatedthatthewholerangeof
available waysandmeansshouldbeusedasappropriate ,including
indirect action; '
Whereas man'seconomic andsocialstructures arelargelydependent
onclimate;whereasespecially suchvitalresources aswaterand
foodcanbeseriously impairedbypossible adverseclimatic condi­
tions;whereas manhimselfcouldcontribute byhisownactivities ,
andespecially bypolluting theatmosphere ,toclimaticinstability
andever,todrasticclimatic changes;whereasitistherefore inthe
Community'sinteresttopromote abetterknowledgie ofthemechanism
andbehaviour ofclimate,aswell'asofthepossible impactsof
climaticvariability inviewofasoundplanning asfarasEuropean
resources areconcerned ;
Whereas aCommunity research programme inthefieldofClimatology
islikelytocontribute effectively totheachievement ofthe
abovementioned objectives ;
WhereastheTreatydoesnotprovidethespecific powersnecessary
forthispurpose;
(1)O.J.N°
(2)O.J.N°
(3)O.J.N°C7of29.1.1974

WhereastheScientific andTechnical Research Committee (CREST)
hasgivenitsopinionconcerning the,'o-nsalfromtheCommission,
HASDECIDED ASFOLLOWS :
Article 1
Forafive-year periodfrom1January 1979*,theCommunity shall.
carryoutaresearch programme inthefieldofCiimatology as
described intheAnnexhereto.
Article 2 >
Theupper limitofexpenditure commitments necessary forthe,
implementation ofthisprogramme isestimated at8.000.000 European
unitsofaccount,,theEuropeanunitofaccountbeingdefined by
theFinancial Regulations applicable ,andthet numberof
staff set atthree.
Article 3
TheCommission shallberesponsible forimplementing theprogramme .It
shallbeassisted inthistaskbyanAdvisory Committee onProgramme
Management ,thetermsofreference andcomposition ofwhichshallbe
definedinaccordance withtheCouncilresolution of18July1977on
advisory committees onresearch programme management (1).
• Article 4
Duringthethirdyeartheprogramme shallbereviewed ;this
reviewmayresultinarevisionoftheprogramme inaccordance
withtheappropriate procedures aftertheAdvisory 'Committee
onProgramme Management hasbeenconsulted .Th&European
Parliament shallbeinformed oftheresults .ofthatreview.
... Article 5
TheEuropean Parliament shallbeinformedoftheresults
achieved andthefundsused. ^
Article 6 r
(1)Inaccordance withArticle228oftheTreaty,theCommunity may
concludeagreements withotherStatesinvolvedinEuropean
(1)0U\N°C192,11.8.1977,p.1.'
° yM! '1Io AMIT

-24-
Cooperation inthefieldofScientific andTechnical Research •(COST)
withaviewtoextending thecoordination whichisthesubjectof
thisDecision toresearch undertaken inthoseStates.
f
(2)TheCommission isherebyauthorised tonegotiate theagreements
referred toinparagraph 1.
Article 7
Theinformation resulting fromtheexecution oftheprogramme shallbe
disseminated inaccordance withCouncilRegulation (EEC)N°2380/74
of17September 1974adopting provisions forthedissemination ofinforma­
tionrelating toresearch programmes fortheEuropean Economic Community (1
DoneatBrussels .
FortheCouncil
- •> •. :•^ • ,
•x•
. ThePresident
(1)O.J.N°L255/20.9.1974,p.1

-ANNEX
' V- :
A.RESEARCH AREAS
I."Understanding Climate"
1.1.Reconstruction ofPastClimates
Exploration andanalysisof:
a.Natural Records .
b.Observational andotherHistorical Records .
,\ '" .
1.2.ClimateModelling andPrediction
a.Development ofprediction methods basedona
system-analysis approach
b.Improvement ofatmospheric circulation models
c.Improvement ofthesimulation oftheslowly-
varying components oftheclimatic system.
II.uMan-Climate Interactions "
i
11.1.ClimaticVariability andEuropean Resources
a.Impacts onLandandWaterResources
b.Climatic HazardsEvaluation
c.Impacts onEnergyRequirements /Useand
Production *
11.2.Man'sImpacts onClimate
a.Atmospheric chemicalpollution/withaspecial
emphasis oncarbondioxideaccumulation
b.ReleaseofEnergy. 7
B.SPECIAL ACTIVITIES ANDSERVICES
I.Establishment ofanInterdisciplinary Groupforthe
.•StudyofClimatic Impacts -
II.Inventory/Coordination andenrichment ofEuropean
Climatic DataSets
• « ι
! Vi'
• " •- ;
Research workwillbecarriedoutbywayofcontracts .

XII /387 /78-EN
FINANCIAL DATA
BUDGET CHAPTER :3366
HEADING OFTHEBUDGET TITLE :Mult i-annua IR&D programme of
theEuropean Communities inthefield ofclimatology
(indirect action 1979-83 )
/
JURIDICAL BASIS :Article 235 ofthe EECTreaty
Council Decision
DESCRIPTION ,,OBJECTIVES ANDJUSTIFICATION OFACTION
Description Research programme onclimatic processes and
variation ,tobecarried outbymeans ofshared-cost
contracts tobeconducted with research institutes inthe Member
States inthe following fields :
Topic 1:Studies ofclimatic processes andreconstruction
ofprevious climatic conditions . -
Topic 2;Studies oftheeffects ofclimatic variation on
certain resources ,especially water resources ,andon
energy requirements .
•* '
Topic 3:Studies oftheeffects ofcertain human activities ,
especially thepollution resulting therefrom ,onthe climate
Topic 4:Creation ofaninterdisciplinary group ofexperts ofthe
European Community tostudy climatic impact . '
Objectives :
Toestablish agreater understanding ofclimatic processes and :
solve theproblems caused ,formajor resources ,by
climatic variations .Tohelp eliminate therisks created
bythehuman exploitation oftheenvironment andbyenvironmental
pollution . *
Justification :. .,
There isanurgent need forimproved techniques offorecasting
thepotential effects ofclimatic variations ,especially on
water resources endonagricultural productivity .Itisalso
important toevaluate theextent towhich climatic change canbe
induced byhuman activities .

XI1/387/7Ë-Fil
5. TOTALFINANCIAL INCIDENCE OfACTION(inh'J-
5.0.<■ %Incidence onexpenditure " .
5.0.0..totalcostduringthetermenvisaged
'-onCommunity budget
••bynationaladministrations v
.-byothersectorsathational level
Total
5.0.1# Multiannualschedule
Commitment «•8.000.000
(.7.030.900
( '-
15.030.900
»1979 1980 1981 ^982 1983
>-Χ
staff 87.100 I160.700 I169*700 180.200I -
I201.300I
I-
Manag. 30.000 ;32.100 33.900' .,36.000 '|■38.100
Techn.t^ "■ i
Contracts 2.000.000 2.932.500 2.098.400 |
"'"■v!■-i
i
■■-1
Total 2.117.100 3.125.300 2.302.000 216.200 239.400 /
i––,–î
Payment
t ..(•
/1979 '1980 1981 ,1982 .1983: 1934 ,
Staff 87.100[160.700 |•169.700!:180.200 201.300 "–|
!'.WJ
M-inaq.'/ 30.000 32.100 .33.900 .36.000 '38.100I '
X-" ■'-»
JTpchn. ;;"I
Contracts 600.000 2.000.000 j2.078.700 1.524.300 609.400 286.00u'..
!
Total 717.100 2.iga.soo 2.282*300 1.740.500 848.800 286.u.i0

XI1/387/78-EN
5.0.2.' Methodofcalculation x
a)Personnel expenditure
Needswereassessed onthebasisoftheofficials
required fortheprogramme
(2Category AofficialCs )
1980{
1979(1Category Aofficial .tCategory Bofficial(s )
(1Category Cofficial19g3category cofficial(s )
Apartfromthesepoststhecalculations takeaccountof
theparameters setforthepurposeofdrawing upthe
preliminary draftbudgetforthefinancial year1979.
Noincrease inpurchasing powerhasbeenprovided fcr.
Achangeintheweighting applicable toremuneration was
theonlyalteration introduced totakeaccountofthe
generaltrendinpriceswithintheCommunity .
b)Expenditure foradministrative andtechnical operations
Theycovertravel,mission andmeeting expenses aswell
asthecostofscientific andtechnical assistance
wheneveritprovesnecessary fortheimplementation
oftheprogramme .
c)Expenditure inrespectofcontracts
Sincethenatureoftheworkandthequalifications of
thecontracting partiesvary,itisimpossible to
introduce astandard methodofcalculation *
However,theAdvisory Committee onProgramme Management
(ACPM)willalwaysbeconsulted ontheallocation
offunds.
d)Multiannual forecasts ,
Theratesfixedforcalculating estimates are:
1980-1,07 1981-1,13 1982-1,20 1983-1,26
5.1. Implications inrespectofrevenue
6. Typeofcontroltobeapplied
....Scient-ificcontrols :Management Committees
. ACPM
Officials appointed byDGXII
Administrative controls ï
Budgetimplementation :Financial Control
Regularity ofexpenditure :Financial Control
Contracts Division 06X11

XI1/387/78-EN
»
%
7. FUNDING ACTION
7.0 .
7.1 .
7.2 .
7.3 . 'Funds tobeincluded infuture (s)budget (s)