REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION

Estonia



Report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union

1. Introduction

On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a Communication on the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact. The clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Regulation (EC) 1467/97, facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. In its Communication, the Commission shared with the Council its view that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, the current conditions permit activation of the clause. On 23 March 2020, the Ministers of Finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. The activation of the general escape clause allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective, provided that this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. For the corrective arm, the Council may also decide, on a recommendation from the Commission, to adopt a revised fiscal trajectory. The general escape clause does not suspend the procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact. It allows Member States to depart from the budgetary requirements that would normally apply while enabling the Commission and the Council to undertake the necessary policy coordination measures within the framework of the Pact.

Data notified by the Estonian authorities on 31 March 2020 and subsequently validated by Eurostat show that the general government deficit in Estonia reached 0.3% of GDP in 2019, while general government gross debt stood at 8.4% of GDP. According to the 2020 Stability Programme, Estonia plans a deficit of 10.1% of GDP in 2020, while debt is planned at 21.9% of GDP.

The planned deficit for 2020 provides prima facie evidence of the existence of an excessive deficit as defined by the Stability and Growth Pact.

Against this background, the Commission has therefore prepared this report, which analyses Estonia’s compliance with the deficit criterion of the Treaty. The debt criterion can be considered to be met as the debt ratio is below the Treaty reference value of 60% of GDP. It takes into account all relevant factors and gives due consideration to the major economic shock linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Table 1. General government deficit and debt (% of GDP)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 COM 2021 COM Deficit criterion General government balance -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 8.3 3.4 Debt criterion General government gross debt 10.2 9.3 8.4 8.4 20.7 22.6

Source: Eurostat, Commission 2020 spring forecast

2.Deficit criterion

Based on the plans in the 2020 Stability Programme, Estonia’s general government deficit in 2020 is expected to reach 10.1% of GDP, above and not close to the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. The sharply rising deficit reflects the planned stimulus of 4.3% of GDP and the effects of the economic crisis.

The planned excess over the Treaty reference value in 2020 is exceptional, as it results from a severe economic downturn. Taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commission spring 2020 forecast projects a contraction of real GDP in 2020 by 6.9%.

The planned excess over the 3% of GDP reference value is not temporary based on the Commission 2020 spring forecast, which projects the deficit to remain above the reference value in 2021.

In sum, the planned deficit for 2020 is above and not close to the 3%-of-GDP Treaty reference value. The planned excess is considered to be exceptional but not temporary as defined by the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact. Hence, the analysis suggests that prima facie the deficit criterion as defined by the Treaty and Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 is not fulfilled based on the Commission 2019 spring forecast and the Stability Programme.

3. Relevant factors

Article 126(3) of the Treaty provides that, if a Member State does not fulfil the requirements under one or both of those criteria, the Commission has to prepare a report. That report must also “take into account whether the government deficit exceeds government investment expenditure and take into account all other relevant factors, including the medium-term economic and budgetary position of the Member State”.