ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES 
DE LA COMMISSION 
 
 
 
COLLECTION RELIEE DES 
DOCUMENTS "COM" 
 
 
 
 
COM (83) 128 
 
 
 
Vol. 1983/ 0038 
  
 
Disclaimer  
Conformément au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983 
concernant l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique 
européenne et de la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, 
p. 1), tel que modifié par le règlement (CE, Euratom) n° 1700/2003 du 22 septembre 2003 
(JO L 243 du 27.9.2003, p. 1), ce dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas échéant, les documents 
classifiés présents dans ce dossier ont été déclassifiés conformément à l'article 5 dudit 
règlement. 
In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 
concerning the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic 
Community and the European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as 
amended by Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1700/2003 of 22 September 2003 (OJ L 243, 
27.9.2003, p. 1), t his file is open to the public. Where necessary, classified documents in this 
file have been declassified in conformity with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation.  
In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. 
Februa r 1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen  
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983,  
S. 1), geändert durch die Verordnung (EG, Euratom) Nr. 1700/2003 vom 22. September 2003  
(ABI. L 243 v om 27.9.2003, S. 1), ist diese Datei der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit  
erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in dieser Datei in Übereinstimmung mit Artikel 5  
der genannten Verordnung freigegeben.  
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COMC83) 128 final  
Brussels 16 March 1 9 8 3
THE ENERGY SITUATION IN THE COMMUNITY
Situation 1982 - Outlook 1983  
(Report from the Commission to the Council)
COM( 83) 128 final

CONTENTS
Introduction. .................................     5
Energy 
prices............................................  9
Nat
ural gas ..............................................  1 2
Oi
l......................................................  1 6
Co
al.....................................................  2 3
El
ectricity . 2 3
Nuclear fuels..........................    2 8
Annexes..................................................  3 0

INTRODUCTION
Provisional data shows that the Community's gross inland con­
sumption of energy (excluding bunkers) declined by 2% in 1982  
to reach about 891 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)·
This is the third consecutive year in which the Community's  
energy consumption has fallen and represents the lowest level  
of demand since 1975·
This trend of falling consumption must be placed in the economic  
context of virtually zero growth in the Community's real gross  
domestic product in 1982, a fall in the index of industrial  
production and the spectre of an unemployment rate equivalent
_  C1Lto about 1 0% of the total labour force· Furthermore, graph 1  
shows the persistence in 1982 of a trend noted since 1979 -  
namely a dissociation between energy consumption and real  
economic growth· For example, setting the energy consumption/
GDP ratio to the value of 1 0 0 for the year 1979»  it consequently  
falls to 9* »  in 1980,  91 in 1981 and 89 in 1982. The parallel  
index for oil consumption per unit of GDP (1979 = 100) moves 
to 91 in 1980, 83 in 1981 and 80 in 1982 - a much more rapid  
decrease than that for total energy - and evidence of important  
structural change in the market place. The share of oil, there­
fore, in the gross inland consumption of energy (Table 1,
Annex 1) was 5^,3% in 1979 but fell to < * 8,7% in 1982.
Consumption of other fuels in the period 1979-1982  (see Graph 1) 
shows a stagnation in coal demand, a slight fall in natural gas  
consumption and a 70% increase in nuclear energy production.  
Nuclear energy, however, still only represents 7% of total  
Community consumption in 1982*
(1) The macroeconomic forecasts referred to in this document
were those established by Commission services in October 1982.
5

Graph.!
EUR-10:  Energy Consumption and Gross Domestic Product *  
Consommation d'énergie et produit intérieur brut*
q at 1975 prices and exchange rates 
* aux prix et taux de change de 1975
120
Comparison between :
Gross Domestic Productooooooo 110-  
Energy Consum ption ....
100 -I iXpoonOf*oooooooO°o0°>
—
n r  ^  n  I I  tComparaison entre .
- ooooooo Produit intérieur brut  
_Consommation d'énero
In
dex 1975=100 1960
6

The supply of energy in the Community in 198 2 continued the  
trends of the previous two years i.e. increasing domestic  
production and reduced net imports (see Graph 2)o In 1982 - the  
Community produced 493 million toe of energy (worth 54$ of total  
inland consumption) with resultant net imports at 419 million  
toe - a 46$ dependence on external sources of supply· Net oil  
imports fell again to 331 million toe (some 265 mtoe less than  
in the peak year of 1973) and a level equivalent to approxima­
tely 3796 of total energy consumption. A 5 million toe decrease  
in stocks made up the balance of supply in 19$2 (a slightly  
lower fall than in the previous year)·-
In 1983«  forecasts from Commission services suggest a modest  
1*1$ increase in the Community's real gross domestic product  
which will give rise to a 1.3# increase in gross inland con­
sumption of energy (Table 2,  Annex 1)· The energy/GDP ratio  
will remain unchanged at 89 (1973 = 100) with consumption of  
solid fuels and natural gas forecast to increase by 0.9$ and 
2.4$ respectively·
Oil consumption is expected to decline marginally whilst nuclear  
energy will increase to take 8.1$ of the forecast 903 mtoe gross  
inland consumption of energy in 1983· The supply profile for  
1983 is projected to show a widening absolute gap between  
increasing Community production (508 mtoe) and the net import  
requirement of 422 mtoe, leaving the overall percentage  
dependence on external sources of supply in 1983 close to the  
1982 level of 46$.
The 1983 forecasts, however, are subject to an unusual degree  
of uncertainty because of the current weakness in the oil market.  
Falling crude oil prices would have important implications for  
oil and other energy markets in the Community. The overall
7

impact would depend on many factors, such as the duration and  
extent of any price decrease, dollar exchange rates, changes  
in economic growth rates, the effect on consumer prices and  
expectations about future trends·
7a

Graph. 2
-10 :  Gross Consumption of Energy  
Sources of Supply
Consommation brute d 'énergie  
Approvisionnements
1000-Mio toe/tep
800-
600-
400-
200 -Gross consumption  
Consommation brute
v je t imports - Importations nettes
Primary production  
Production primaire .
Variations of/des stocks
'Increase/Mise Decrease/Reprise
1973 4 5 6 7 8 9  1980 1  2 3
Note:(A)=(BMCMD)
8

ENERGY PRICES
There have been major changes in the price structure in the  
Community's energy markets in the period 1979-82· The 'second  
oil price shock' following the revolution in Iran in 1979» 
falling demand for energy products and substitution for oil  
within the context of an economic recession have resulted in  
the continual adjustment of relative prices to rapidly changing  
events. As an example of this, Graph 3 illustrates in summary 
form the changing price structure in the Community for the  
industrial fuel market. (Data for the graphs is highly  
aggregated and therefore the results should be interpreted 
with some caution).
As can be seen from the graph, the year 1979 can be interpreted  
a critical year for the determination of current pricing struc­
ture. In the six previous years, despite the 'first oil price  
shock' of 1973 prices of oil, coal and gas followed a similar  
upward moving trend. However in the period 1980-1981, the  
increase in oil prices was twice as sharp as for coal. Indeed  
coal prices seem increasingly likely to retain their price  
advantage over oil. For natural gas, the graph shows that the  
prices of this fuel lagged the 1973 and 1979 surge in oil prices  
and hence has for long periods enjoyed a significant premium  
over oil. Recent trends, however, suggest that as the Community  
increases its net imports of natural gas, net imports whose  
prices are more and more frequently linked to crude oil prices,  
that this long-term price advantage may be coming to an end.
In many Member States it now appears that residual fuel oil  
prices are less in real terms than those for natural gas  
(particularly uninterruptible supply) even taking into account  
the different useful energy yields of the fuels for industrial
9

use. Real electricity prices (not shown in the graph) rose at  
rates comparable to those for coal in the period 1978-1982, 
but at lower rates than for all other forms of energy for the  
period 1973-1978«
10

Graph:3
Ruling Prices Industrial Market excluding VAT
1 9 7 3  'Ik '75 '76 77 78 79 1980 * 8 1  '82 '83
(1 ) Assuming 7.39 Barrels/tonn* at 42.229 G J
(2) 1973-1976, Commissions bast estimates·, 1977- t979,based on quarterly returns, January 1980'onwards based  
on monthly registration of crude oil imports
1 1

NATURAL· GAS
(i) Consumption
Preliminary estimates for 1982 show that natural gas consumption  
declined for the third year in succession to reach 163 million  
tonnes of oil equivalent· For the Community as a whole the fall  
in consumption was about 2$, although the picture varies between  
Member States· Since the peak reached in 1979i natural gas con­
sumption in the Community has fallen by about 5#·
Belgium showed the sharpest fall in consumption for 1982 with  
a reduction on the previous year of about 19#· This fall was  
mainly in the industrial market and reflects, in part, changes,  
in the current relative price for natural gas.
In the Netherlands, where natural gas meets half of the coun­
try’s energy needs, there was a fall in consumption of almost  
3# whilst Luxembourg, a relatively small user of natural gas,  
showed a fall in consumption of about 15# on top of the 20# 
fall in the previous year. The Federal Republic of Germany and  
the United Kingdom also recorded falls in consumption in 1982, 
of about 5# and 3# respectively·
These falls in consumption were partially offset by increased  
demand in other Member States based on increased supplies,  
either from import projects or indigenous production· In France  
consumption grew slightly, partly as a result of new supplies  
under recently settled contracts for imports of natural gas  
from Algeria. In the case of Italy, increased consumption,  
mostly accounted for by an increase in the use of natural gas  
for electricity generation, was based on both increased  
imports and an 11# increase in production· Ireland showed an  
increase of about k0% in natural gas consumption - from a
12

relatively low level - as it continuée to develop its offshore  
Kinaale field« Denmark became a natural consumer in October 1982*  
with initial supplies via a new pipeline connection to the  
Federal Republic of Germany· Natural gas will be imported from  
Germany under a three year agreement ;  thereafter supplies will  
be taken from the fields in the Danish sector of the North Sea,  
which are currently under development· Greece has also begun  
to produce relatively very small quantities of natural gas which  
are used for the production of fertiliser· The overall picture  
of the fall in natural gas consumption is due to the continuing  
economic recession together with a degree of substitution by  
alternative energies and the impact of energy saving measures·  
These last two trends have been accelerated by substantial  
increases in the level of natural gas prices and general energy  
prices respectively, over the last couple of years·
The shares of the main consumption sectors in total natural gas  
consumption, however, continues to change slowly· The share of  
natural gas consumed by the domestic sector, for example, shows  
another slight increase in 1982 for the Community as a whole,  
mainly reflecting the sharp fall of natural gas consumption in  
the industrial sector· There has also been a welcome decline in  
natural gas usage for electricity generation in some Member 
States, although in others more gas is being used for this  
purpose as a short-term expedient. Overall there is a slight  
decrease in the use of gas for electricity generation in 1982®
Forecasts for 1983 suggest that there may be a slight upturn  
in natural gas consumption, mainly due to increases in France  
and Italy as new supplies build up towards their full contract  
volumes, together with forecast increases in consumption in  
the Netherlands and the Federal Republic of Germany, based on  
corresponding Increases in domestic production·. Consumption in
13

Denmark and Ireland is also forecast to Increase as these coun­
tries further develop their use of natural gas. In the United  
Kingdom consumption is forecast to remain at about the same  
level whilst in Belgium the situation is less clear» much  
depending on the evolution of relative prices in the energy  
market·
(ii) Supply
Production of natural gas in the Community fell in 1982 with  
respect to the previous year. The fall was about 6# for the  
Community as a whole and was mainly accounted for by a 13#  
fall in the Netherlands, which nevertheless still accounts  
for about half of total Community production. The other major  
Community producer, the United Kingdom, which accounts for  
just over a quarter of Community production, reported virtually  
no change from the output levels of the previous years.
The fall in Netherlands production was mainly reflected by a  
decline in supplies to other Community Member States of about  
18#, with reductions above this average figure in supplies  
to France, Italy and Belgium being compensated by a fall of 7 % 
in supplies to the Federal Republic of Germany.
In 1982 imports of natural gas from third countries were very  
slightly above imports for the previous year. The increase in  
imports by Italy and France was largely offset by a fall in  
imports to the Federal Republic of Germany, the United Kingdom,  
the Netherlands and Belgium. The share of total supplies accoun­
ted for by imports outside the Community remains at about 27#·
Norway continues to be the major source of imports to the Commu­
nity, supplying natural gas to all major gas consuming Member  
States except Italy. Currently the second largest third country  
supplier of natural gas to the Community is the USSR, with

exports to the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy and France.  
The other major Community supplier is Algeria, which has con­
tracts for supplies of natural gas to France, Italy and Belgium  
(the latter via the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at  
Montoir in France, pending completion of the Belgian Zeebrugge  
LNG terminal)» The contract for Algerian gas supplies to the  
United Kingdom, however, was not renewed. There is also a con­
tract for supplies from Libya, to Italy although the quantities  
are relatively small.
In 1985 production is forecast to be marginally lower than in  
1982, whilst imports for third countries are expected to in­
crease from ^6 mtoe in 1982 to 53 mtoe in 1983 (see Table 1, 
Annex 2)·
15

OIL
(i) Consumption
From the data available, the consumption of oil in 1982 confirms  
the trend, evident for the last three years, towards a major  
drop in oil consumption (see Graph 1). Gross inland consumption  
of crude oil and equivalents (excluding bunkers) was 537 mtoe  
in 1979· Provisional data for 1982 suggests that consumption  
will level at about bjb mtoe - a fall of approximately 100 mtoe  
(or 19#) in three years and about less than in 1981 (see  
Table 2, Annex 2). The rate of decrease in oil consumption in  
1982 however, is less than in the previous two years
where rates of decrease of about (=8#) were recorded for 1980/
79 and 1981/80)·
The main reduction in demand concerns fuels for domestic and  
industrial use. For example residual fuel oil deliveries were  
10# lower in the January-September period of 1982 than in 1981  
with consumption in power stations in 1982 lower than in 1981·  
Motor spirit consumption remains almost unchanged whilst there  
is a slight increase in demand for diesel fuels· The overall  
fall in oil demand is due to many factors among which are the  
recession in economic activity, the substitution of other forms  
of energy for oil, end consumers achieving substantial energy  
savings, and the possibility that consumers have maintained  
stocks at fairly low levels in the hope that prices of oil  
products would drop.
If the economic activity remains as weak in 1985 as at present  
and if the energy savings effort continues, the trend towards  
falling oil demand could harden. However, the shrinking savings  
and substitution potential might make it difficult to maintain
16

the rate of reduction in consumption. Motor spirit consumption  
will remain more or less the same as in 1982. Energy savings in  
the household sector are mainly the result of changes in con­
sumer behaviour. There are clearly limits beyond which there is  
an unacceptable drop in the level of confort. Measures already  
taken in industry have already led to appreciable savings but  
the propensity for further energy savings in the sector is dif­
ficult to forecast. Taking these points into account it is  
therefore estimated that in 198j5 the Community's gross inland  
consumption of oil could be about 1$ lower than in 1982.
(ii) Foreign trade in oil products
The Community's foreign trade balance in oil products deterio­
rated in 1982. In the first seven months of the year imports  
of oil products increased by almost 20$ whilst exports remained  
more or less unchanged. Net imports of petroleum products for  
the full year 1982 will probably be around 30 million tonnes  
compared with 17.7 million in 1981·
This deterioration is due to a major increase in the amount of  
low-cost products imported from state-trading countries and  
from North Africa. These imports caused a major disturbance  
in market conditions and were a factor in the difficulties  
encountered by the refining industry in covering development  
costs (see refinery production). It is not likely that this  
foreign trade balance will improve in 1983·
(iii) Refinery production
In the first three quarters of 1982 refinery production fell by  
5$ from the already depressed levels of 1981.. The increase in  
net imports of products and withdrawals from product stocks  
resulted in a fall in the proportion of the market supplied
17

by Community refineries to 88# compared with 95# in 1981. The  
fall in domestic output was most marked in Ifrance (12#) and  
Belgium ( 10#), whose net imports rose steeply ;  the Netherlands  
was the only Member State to maintain production at about the
1981 level.
Production in Community refineries in 1983 is expected to show  
little change from 1982 but may rise slightly as the run-down  
of product stocks comes to an end.
(iv) Refining capacity
Primary distillation capacity was sharply reduced in most  
Member States during 1982. The imperative need to reduce costs  
in a falling market, in which most companies foresee little  
prospect of growth or profit, has caused companies to decide 
upon the permanent closure of 16 refineries during 1982 and  
1983, totalling nearly 100 million tons/year, or 12#. Averaging  
the capacity estimated to be in service at 1.1.1982 and 31«12.
1982 suggests that utilisation was of the order of 60# over the  
year compared with 55# in 1981 . The ratio was particularly low,  
at barely 50#, in Italy and the Netherlands, which, as the Com­
munity's main exporters have been hard hit by the fall in the  
demand from their traditional customers. Most of the other  
Member States were in the range of 65-75#·
In 1983 further closures are scheduled and average plant util­
isation should rise significantly.
The expansion of Community conversion capacity, required to  
adapt refinery yield to the rising relative demand for distil­
late products, continued in 1982 with the commissioning of  
several major projects, notably in the United Kingdom. Some  
upgrading capacity was lost, however, as a result of refining  
closures in Germany and the United Kingdom.
18

(v) Crude oil production
Community production of crude oil and condensate is expected to  
be about 11^ mtoe in 1982 - some 1256 higher than in 1981· The 
United Kingdom, the dominant producer with approximately 90# 
of total Community production is expected to have increased its  
production in 1982 by a similar amount. Production has gradually  
built up during the year in Denmark and Greece, but declined by  
3# and 2# in the Federal Republic of Germany and France respec­
tively. In 1983 Community production is forecast to reach 125 
Mtoe, about 10# higher than in 1982.
In global terms, world oil production in 1982 will be about 7# 
lower than last year in the production i-’ .nge of 1 to h2,3 mil­
lion barrels/day compared to ^ ^ .5 million barrels per day in  
1981. This drop is partly due to a decrease in world oil require­
ments and partly to the fact that oil companies drew down their  
stocks to limit the effect of surplus supplies on company ear­
nings. The OPEC production rate has dropped sharply and con­
sequently the OPEC share of the world market has declined from  
65# in 197^ to less than of requirements in 1982. Production  
in the United States has increased little, but a major increase  
in Mexican production is noted.
Production in non-OPEC countries, particularly in the Community  
will continue to increase in 1983 whilst the oil extraction  
rate in OPEC areas will be similar to that in 1982.
(vi) Crude oil imports
Because of the drop in consumption, the increase in Community 
production and the rundown in stocks, it is estimated that in  
1982 the Community’s net imports of petroleum (crude and pro­
ducts) were 7# less than in 1981. The larger decline in the
19

net imports of crude oil and feedstocks being partially offset  
by increased net imports of petroleum products·
As is well known, there have been major changes in the impor­
tance to the Community of various sources of supplies of crude  
oil :
- intra-Community trade, particularly supplies from the United  
Kingdom, for example increased by 15% in the first three  
quarters of the year 5
- imports from non-Community countries decreased by more than  
12%· In particular, there was a drop of 20% in imports from  
OPEC countries as compared with 1981· Leaving aside supplies  
from Iran, there has been a major decrease in deliveries of  
oil extracted in the Middle East. Imports from Africa seem 
to be similar to 1981 levels·
(vii) Oil prices
As in 1981» the balance between world production and consump­
tion of oil and the resulting price trends continues to cause  
a number of problems in 1982· Although OPEC was able to main­
tain its official market prices for crude oil, it nevertheless  
had difficulties in asserting its ability to direct the markets  
and impose strict price and production quota discipline on the  
members of the organization· Oil producers found it difficult  
to regularize the differences between production and consumption.
In 1981 there were several successive increases and decreases  
in official prices of crude oil in different producer countries·  
At the beginning of 1982 there were decreases, particularly in  
crude oils, and this trend spread to light qualities, at least  
in some areas such as Iran and the North Sea« In June some  
producers, particularly those in the North Sfea in the USSR,  
increased their prices· The surplus of crude oil forced some
20

producer countries to sell their cargoes on the spot market at  
prices lower than the official levels in order to balance their  
budgets·
These movements affected the Community. The average cost of  
imported crude oil which was $ 35*62 per barrel in the fourth  
quarter of 1981, decreased to % 32.97 in the second quarter of  
1982 and then rose again slightly in the third quarter. For the  
full year 1982 the average cost of imported crude oil, expressed  
in dollars, will be about $ 3 per barrel less than in 1981  
(see Table 3t Annex 2). During the same period the Community's  
currencies depreciated vis-a-vis du dollar (*) by more than the  
drop in the cost of imported crudes. The general public and the  
dealers suffered the consequences in the prices they paid and  
the earnings they made.
The drop in the price of some crudes resulted in more competition  
in the marketing of oil products on the Community's markets  
where imports of low-cost refined products, particularly from  
state-trading countries, had already forced refiners to give  
major discounts in order to make sure that as much of their  
capacity as possible was used. The concern to limit losses at the  
refining stage explains why stocks were drawn down to such an  
extent as to reach their lowest level since 1969.
In the first quarter of 1982 prices for oil products, expressed 
in national currencies, decreased in all Member States, partic­
ularly those where there are no price formation rules.
In the second and third quarters, prices for oil products gener­
ally increased but prices fell in the fourth quarter of 1982  
to follow the downward trend of the world markets for crude oil  
and oil products.
(*) Fluctuations in Community currencies vis-à-vis du dollar t  
15 December 1981/end November 1982.
Bfrs - 26% ;  DM - 11# j  FF - 2356 ;  Lit - 20# ;  HFL - 10$6 ;  
£ - 1756. 21

It is difficult to forecast oil price trends for 1985· Against  
a background of hesitant changes in economic activity the effect  
on prices of the disparity between oil supply and demand is  
compounded by the uncertainty over exchange rates between the  
Community currencies and the dollar·. Even if OPEC manages to  
maintain its official reference prices for crude oils, prices  
charged on the free markets may fluctuate although there will  
be a tendency for them to decrease if certain producer countries  
find themselves short of foreign currency·
There is the possibility that oil prices will stagnate or  
decrease in dollar terms (and maybe also in national currencies)  
on Community markets in 1983· Oil companies, therefore, may  
again suffer the consequences of earnings too low to cover the  
rising costs of their transport capacities and surplus refining  
capacity·
22

COAL
(i) Consumption
In 1982 coal consumption in the Community is estimated to have  
been 303 million tonnes (183 Mtoe) and is expected to increase  
in 1983 to about 303 million tonnes (see Table 1,  Annex 3)·
In addition, lignite and peat consumption reached 169 million  
tonnes ( 33»5 Mtoe) in 1982 - similar to that of 1981·
The consumption of coal in power stations increased again in  
1982 to 182 million tonnes - or S O % of total demand* The main  
reason for this increase was the dry summer of 1982.
In 1983» coal consumption in this market should be maintained  
at about the same level as 1982·
Coke consumption in the iron and steel industry recorded a  
large fall in 1982 due to the effects of the recession in the  
steel industry* In 1981 consumption of coke in this sector was  
53 million tonnes but is expected to have dipped to ^5 million  
tonnes in 1982 and is forecast to be k j> million tonnes in 1983®
In other consumption sectors, there has been a slight upturn  
in demand - the result of efforts to convert to coal in varying 
industries and demand for district heating purposes·
(ii) Supply
In 1982 Community production of coal (including recovered pro­
ducts) was 2k8 million tonnes, about 2# less than in 1981·
The percentage fall in production should be higher in 1983·  
Imports of coal from third countries were 70 million tonnes in  
1982, compared to 71 million tonnes in 1981. These imports are  
forecast to remain stable in 1983*
23

Production of coke, heavily affected by the recession in the  
steel industry, reached 60 million tonnes in 1982. This repre­
sents a fall of 7% (**,6 mt) compared to 1981® In 1983 produc­
tion of coke will be about 57 million tonnes. Again it is note­
worthy that even with the fall in the production in 1982, stocks  
have again risen during the year (by 3 mt in 1982) and the fore­
cast is for a stock movement of about the same amount in 1983·
Community stocks of coal and coke will be the equivalent of  
132 mt of coal at year end 1982 - compared to 118 mt .t the  
beginning of the year· Stocks should increase again in 1983$  
this time by about 6 million tonnes - except if there is an  
upturn in the steel industry^
(iii) Import prices
Table 2 in Annex 3 shows the trend in prices of imported coal  
from third countries arriving in Community ports in 1981 and  
1982. The annual average prices in 1982 for coking coal and  
steam coal (76 and 70 $ US/tce respectively, reflects stable  
although relatively high quarterly prices. These prices were  
nevertheless slightly lesa than the record quarterly prices  
noted in 1981 (82 and 73 $ US respectively). Supplementary  
charges arising from the delays of ships in ports have now al­
most disappeared* At the price levels currently pertaining,  
imported coal, in spite of the appreciation of the dollar in  
the foreign exchange market, nevertheless maintains a substan­
tial cost advantage over domestically produced Community coal.
For 1983, the coupling of the projection of more or less stable  
demand with oversupply, suggests a slight decrease in import  
prices in the year ahead.
2k

ELECTRICITY
(i) Electricity consumption
In 1982 the electricity demand in the Community is expected to  
have marginally decreased compared with 1981, reflecting the  
sluggish state of the economy» The net electricity consumption 
is estimated to be some 1210 TWh, a fall of 0,6# on last year  
(see Table 1, Annex * 0»
In general, there was a decrease in electricity consumption in  
the industrial sector whilst consumption in the tertiary and  
domestic sector held up·. This pattern is similar to that of  
the previous year·
In the event that economic conditions show some improvement in  
1983, as predicted, the expectations are that this will be  
reflected in improved growth rates in all countries, resulting  
in an increase of some 1.5# in net Community electricity con­
sumption·
(ii) Electricity production
Net electricity production in the Community is expected to have  
decreased by some 0·^# in 1982 as compared with 198 1· .  There were,  
as in 1981, significant changes in the contribution of the various  
energy sources to electricity production. These include an expec­
ted increase in the contribution of nuclear of some 12$, a de­
crease in that of petroleum products of about 9#» and a slight  
increase in that of coal»
The effect of the above changes is expected to be that, for 1982,  
1 9 5 1 5 of electricity production was from nuclear, ky% from solid  
fuels, 7% from natural gas, and 1255 from hydro (see Table 2,
A n n e x  * 0 ·
2 5

In 1983 a further significant increase in the contribution of  
nuclear to electricity production is expected* If the elec­
tricity production requirements increase as expected, the con­
tribution from coal in 1983 might increase slightly whilst that  
from petroleum products should decline·
(iii) Nuclear energy
During 1982, four pressurized water reactors (PWR) were linked
to the grid in the Community* There were two in Belgium :
DOEL 3 (900 MWe) and TIHANGE 2 (900 MWe) and two in France :
LE BLAYAIS 2 (920 MWe) and CHINON B 1 (880 MWe)* This brought
total net operating capacity of nuclear power plants in the( * >
Community from *t 1*3 GWe at the end of 1981 to GWe
at the end of 1982·
According to current plans a total of 13 nuclear units will be  
connected to the grid during 1983· They are t
- five PWR reactors in France î  CHINON B 2 (880 MWe), LE BLAYAIS  
3 (920 MWe), LE BLAYAIS k (920 MWe), PALDEL 1 (1285 MWe) and  
PALÏÏEL 2 (1285 MWe).
- two boiling water reactors (BWR) in Germany r  GUNDREMMINGEN B  
(12* f * f  MWe) and KRUMMEL ( 12Ô0 MWe)
- six advanced gas cooled reactors (AGR) in the United Kingdom :  
DUNGENESS B 1 and B 2 (1173 MWe), HARTLEPOOL 1 and 2 (1250 MWe) 
and HEYSHAM A 1 and A 2 (12Mt MWe).
Thus, during 1983, total net operating capacity of nuclear power  
will increase by 11.5 GWe to attain 56· * » ·  GWe by the end of the  
year .
The production of electricity from nuclear power plants totalled  
225 TWh in 1982 up 11.5# from last year. This brings nuclear’s  
share in overall electricity generation to 19.0#. As growth in
total electricity production has been less than growth in  
(*) 1 GWe ■ 1000 MWe
26

nuclear electricity production, nuclear power has been able to  
displace economically some oil based electricity production·
For 1983 this trend is expected to continue» Nuclear electri­
city production could increase by 15# to reach 259 TWh brin­
ging nuclear's share in total electricity production to 21,3#· 
If growth in demand for electricity remains low, nuclear  
capacity will continue to displace some oil (and gas) based  
electricity generation·
27

NUCLEAR FUELS
a) The trends already observed during previous years have again  
been confirmed :  as far as the availability of nuclear fuels  
is concerned,  the conditions of the market in natural uranium 
and slightly enriched uranium (including enrichment services)  
enable - for the time being at least - adequate supplies to  
be secured and sources to be diversified,
b) When account is taken of contractual commitments for enrich­
ment services entered into by Community users, the demand  
for natural uranium in the Community will be amply covered  
by contracts until tho middle of the decade, so that on the  
whole users have considerable reserves of natural and  
enriched uranium at their disposal.
Deliveries of natural uranium made in pursuance of pur­
chasing contracts known to the Agency and on behalf of  
companies established within the Community amounted to appro­
ximately 13000 tonnes in 1981, while those made under spot  
contracts represented less than 10# of the total.
Since supply continues to exceed demand, the average price  
paid for natural uranium under forward contracts - US $ 33»23 
per pound of U^Qg in 1981 - should, in view of routine annual  
negotiations, work out slightly lower in 1982«- As was to be  
expected, spot-market prices showed a much more marked down­
ward trend, falling from US $ 23<>5 to US $ 17 per pound of  
U^Og between December 1981 and October 1982.
28

c) Surplus capacity is also the main feature of the enrichment  
market· There is therefore no problem regarding the security  
of supplies, especially since Community industrialists,  
who possess the technology are in a position to bring the  
capacities required in future on stream in good time·
The capacity installed in the Community has already enabled  
the latter to become a net exporter of enrichment services*
Low-enrichment uranium requirements are being met increasing­
ly from the Community’s isotope separation plants (EURODIF  
and URENCO) a .  On the other hand, the Community’s need for  
the highly enriched uranium used in research reactors con­
tinues to be met exclusively by deliveries from the United  
States, which consequently enjoys a de facto monopoly·.
The plutonium intended for fast breeder reactors is produced  
during the reprocessing of fuel elements within the Community.
29

Table 1
Gross inland consumption of energy in the Community
Hhrd coal and equivalents  
Lignite and equivalents  
Crude oil and equivalents  
Natural gas  
Nuclear energy  
Hydro and others
TOTAL1980
(Eurostat)
M toe
189,8 
32,9 
^93,8  
169,3 
te, 7 
15,  ^
9^3 ,920,1
3 .5  
52 ,3  
18,0
^ 5
1.6
100,01981
(Eurostat)
M toe
186,i f
33.5 
^51,7
165.8
56.6 
15,8
909.820,5
3 .7  
^9 ,7  
18,2
6,2
1.7
1 0 0 ,01982^ ' 
Estimates1983
Forecasts
M toe
183
33
163
63
15
891H toe
20,5
3 .7  
^8,7 
18,3
7,1
1.7
100,0I8if
3^
^30
167
73
15
903
(*) provisional data  
(**) including other fuels

Table 2
Percentage change in GDP and in energy consumption
1981-19801982-1981 1983-1982 ;
(estimates) (forecasts)
Gross domestic product -0,6 +0 ,3 +1,1
Energy inland consumption, of which : -3 ,6 -2,1 +1,3
- Oil -8 ,5 -3,9 -0,9
- Solid fuels -1 ,3 -1,8 +0 ,9
- Natural gas -2,1 -1,7 +2 ,4
- Nuclear energy +32,5 + 11,3 + 13,9
- Hydro, geothermal and others +2,6 -5,1 -
Table 3
Energy supply in the Community
(M toe)
1980 (1) 1981 (1) 1982 (2) _________ 1983 ( 3)_____
Pro­
ductionNet(*)
importsPro­
ductionNet
importsPro­
ductionNet(* ) 
importsPro­
ductionNet(*) 
imports
Solid fuels 185,1 47,3 186,5 42,2 184 41 181 42
Oil 91,1 437,9 101,6 357,8 114 331 125 325
Natural gas 129,2 40,6 125,2 42,6 118 45 116 53
Primary electricity, etc. 56 ,7 70,5 1,9 77 2 86 2
TOTAL 462, 1 527,2 483,8 444,5 493 419 508 422
(1) Eurostat. ( 2) Provisional data. ( 3) Forecasts.
(*) Imports minus exports.

Table 1Annex 2
ETJR-1 0 - Natural gas consumption, production and imports
(Mtoe)
1981^1982/81
%1982
estimates1983/82
%1983
forecasts
Production 125 -5 ,6 118 - 1,7 116
Imports from third countries  
(*)Consumption45
166+2,2
-1.846
163+ 15,2 
+ 2, h53
16?
(1) Eurostat
(*) Not always equal to the sum of production and imports
because of stock changes and exports of gas to third countries.
Table 2
Eur-1 0 - Oil consumption, production and imports
(Mt)
1981(1)1982/81
%1982
estimates1983/82
%1983
forecasts
Consumption
- Inland h 49,9 - 4 ,0 432 -0,9 428
- Bunkers 26,7 - 2,6 26 - 26
Total 476,6 - 3 ,9 458 -0 ,9 454
Production (*) 100,8 +12, 1 113 +9 ,7 124
Stock change (**) +18,0 + 14 +5
Net imports 357,8 - 7 ,5 331 -1,8 325
(1) Eurostat
(*) Including recovered and regenerated products  
(**) (+) decrease of stocks ;  (-) increase of stocks
32

Table 3
Average EEC consumer prices (before tax) and crude oil costs
$/tonne 12/80 6 /8 1 12/81 6/8 2 12/82
Premium gasoline 1+50 1+27 b75 1+10 1+18
Regular gasoline bb2 b 2b bS5 383 1+03
Heating gasoil 355 327 373 31+2 352
Residual fuel 1 %  a 212 209 20b 183 182
Average %/ t 330 313 3^1 303 309
Proceeds Index 100 95 103 92 9b
Crude oil Index 100 103 102 95 9b
CIF cost %/ t 260 268 265 2bS 2b5
(1) Prices are derived from data provided by Member States under the  
Community information and Consultation Procedure
(Council Directive 76/1+91/EEC) .
(2) "Average proceeds" :  Individual product prices are weighted 
according to the 1981 consumption of each main product.

Table 1Annex 3
Solid fuel supply situation (EUR-10)
(Mt)
Production
(1)Imports ExportsStock 
change(2)Gross
inland
consumption
.Mi
Coal 252 71 -4 - « 303
Coke 65- -4 +2 63
Lignite+turf 167 3 - -1 169
1982^
Coal 248 70 -3 -12 303
Coke 60 1 -3 -4 54
Lignite+turf 167 2 - - 169
J M 2 (4)
Coal 241 70 -3 -3 305
Coke 57 1 -3 -3 52
Lignite+turf 171 2M B 173
(1) Including recovered products·
(2) (+) decreased stocks ;  (-) increase of stocks.
(3) Provisional data. (4) Estimates·
Table 2
CIF Price of Community coal imports
Coking coal Steam coalRelation  
(a) / (b)  
%Year Quarter Standard
quality
__ 9 /t (1)I  Tce(2) Tce(2)
*I  $/Tce  
I  (a)%$/Tce
(b)
1981 I 76 100 72 100 69 104
II 80 104 75 106 73 103
III 84 110 79 101 70 113
IV 87 114 82104 72 114
1982 I 82'
107 I77103 71 108
II 82 107 77103 71 108
III 81 106 76 100 69 110
IV 80 103 75
(1) Standard quality * A * 6% j  M = 3% ;  VM * 2k% .
calorific value a 31»1 kj/kg
(2) Tonnes of coal equivalent (calorific value * 29*3 kj/kg)
34

ELECTRICITY
Table 1
Net consumption - EÜR-1Q
Year TWH % change
1981
1982
19831217.1
1210
12281982/81 : - 0.6# 
1983/82 · .  + 1 .5 %
Table 2
Net production - EUR-10
(TWh)
TOTALof which :  by energy source
HydroGeothermal NuclearConventional
thermalCoalLignitePetroleum
productsNatural
«asOthers
Net production :
1981 120*f.81^9.** 2 .6 201 .8 831.1 1*08.8 102.6 222.5 90.3 2 6 .8
TWh 1982 1200 1^2.3 2.7 2 2 3 .0 830 .0 ifl9.0 100.0 202.0 8 8 .0 2 1 .0
1983 1218.0 135.9 2.7 259.1 820.3 k2k.O 100.5 190.8 8 6 .0 19.0
% change
1982/81 -O.'f -^•7 +3.8 + 11.3 -2.5 +2.5 -2.5 -9.2 -2 .5-2 1 .6
1983/82 + 1.5 -^.5 0 + 15.2 -1.2 + 1 .2+0.5 -5.5 -2 .3 -9.5
Share in total :
1981 100 12.i f 0 .2 16.8 7 0 .6 33.9 8.5 18.5 7.5 2 .2
% 1982 100 11.9 0 .2 18.7 6 9 .2 3^.9 8.3 16.8 7.^ 1.8
1983 100 1 1.2 0 .2 2 1 .3 67.3 3^.8 8 .2 15.7 7.1 1.6