ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES 
DE LA COMMISSION 
 
 
 
COLLECTION RELIEE DES 
DOCUMENTS "COM" 
 
 
 
 
COM (84) 541 
 
 
 
Vol. 1984/0 213 
  
 
Disclaimer  
Conformém ent au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983 
concernant l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique 
européenne et de la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, 
p. 1), tel que modifié par le règlement (CE, Euratom) n° 1700/2003 du 22 septembre 2003 
(JO L 243 du 27.9.2003, p. 1), ce dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas échéant, les documents 
classifiés présents dans ce dossier ont été déclassifiés conformément à l'article 5 dudit 
règlem ent. 
In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 
concerning the openi ng to the public of the historical archives of the European Econom ic 
Community and the European Atomic Energy Communit y (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as 
amended by Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1700/2003 of 22 September 2003 (OJ L 243, 
27.9.2003, p. 1), this f ile is open to the public. Where necessary, classified documents in this 
file have been declassified in conformity with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation.  
In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom  1. 
Februar 198 3 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen  
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und der Europäischen Atomgem einschaft (ABI. L 43 vom  15.2.1983,  
S. 1), geändert durch die Verordnung (EG, Euratom) Nr. 1700/2003 vom 22. Septem ber 2003  
(ABI. L 243 vom 27 .9.2003, S. 1), ist diese Datei der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit  
erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in dieser Datei in Übereinstimmung mit Artikel 5  
der genannten Verordnung freigegeben.  
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
C0MC84) 541 final  
Brussels, 8 October 1984
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL  
on the establishment of a system for observing the  
transport markets
C0MC84) 541 final

-  1 -ù > n  SH'i
1.BACKGROUND
1.1.1975 Communication to the Council
In its Communication of 1 October 1975 (1), the Commis­sion set out the general principles of its policy for  the organization of the market in inland goods trans­
port in the Community.
One part of this policy wap the establishment of a mar­ket observation and forecasting system capable of sup­plying information on, and economic analysis of, market  
trends.
A proposed Council Regulation (2) establishing the  market observation system was annexed to the  Communication. This draft was sent to the Parliament  (3) and the Economic and Social Committee (4) for their  opinions. Parliament approved the proposal and  requested that its implementation be given priority.
In June 1978, the Council of Ministers, after examining  the proposal and the Commission's report (5) on the ob­servation system, decided to await the results of the  Commission's practical experience before coming to a  decision.
The Council's statement (6) also contained a detailed  programme for the introduction of this systdm during  the trial period.
In December 1980, the Commission submitted a report (7)  on the experience gained in 1979 and 1980 and explained  that it was submitting its report before the end of the  trial period to avoid a rupture to the supply of data  on a continuous basis at the end of 1981. The Commis­sion also proposed some amendments to its earlier pro­posal on the market observation system (8) and further  proposed, because of the voluntary approach being used,  that the Council adopt a Decision rather than a  
Regulation.
This proposed Council Decision was sent to the  Parliament (9) and the Economic and Social Committee  (10) for their opinions. The Parliament approved the  proposal subject to one further criterion being taken  into account.
TU COM (75) 490 final of 1.10.1975(2) OJ No. C 1, 5.1.1976, p. 44(3) OJ No. C 293, 13.12.1976, p. 56(4) OJ No. C 281, 27.11.1976, p. 2(5) Doc. SEC(77) 3074 of 8.9.1977
(6) Doc. R/1166/78 (TRANS 81)
(7) COM (80) 785 final of 5.12.1980
(8) OJ No. C 351, 31.12.1980, p. 32
(9) OJ No. C 172, 13.7.1981, p. 128
(10) OJ No. C 189, 30.7.1981, p. 171.2.1978 Council statement
1.3.1980 Report to the Council

-  2 -
1.4. 1981 Council Resolution
In July 1981, the Council of Ministers, after examining  the proposal and the Commission's report (1) on the ob­servation system, decided to await the results of the  Commission's further experience before coming to a fin- ^
al decision.
The Council therefore, in a resolution (2) s
"Considered it desirable, before taking a Decision on  the Commission proposal to introduce this system on a  permanent basis, to have available all the results from  the market monitoring system which was implemented ex­
perimentally during the years 1979 to 1981;
Noted the Commission's intention to continue for a per­iod of three years from 1 January 1982 this experiment­al monitoring of the markets for the carriage of goods  by rail, road and inland waterway between the Member  States so as to have available the fullest possible  information on the trends and situation on these  
markets;
Noted that the experimental monitoring of the markets  is being introduced gradually and is based on the cha­racteristics described in the Commission reports of 8  September 1977 and 5 December 1980, using whenever pos­sible the elements and data already available at natio­nal level;
Noted the intention of all the Member States to cont­inue to take the necessary steps to ensure close co­operation between their relevant national departments  and those of the Commission;
Invited the Commission to submit to it in good time, a  report containing the Commission's final conclusions on  the experiment and the results obtained."
1.5. Purpose of this report
The purpose of this report is to provide the Council  with the information derived from the experience gained  since 1979, and more especially since 1982, and to seek  the general approval of the Council to the continuing  expenditure on the market observation system as it is  proposed to develop it in the future.
In the Commission's view, it is necessary to consider  this issue without waiting for the outcome of all of  the 1984 work so as to comply with the Council's re­quest to submit the report "in good time".
T T J COM(80) 785 final of 5.12.1980  (2) Doc. 7973/81 (TRANS 94)

3
2. NEED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKET OBSERVATION
SYSTEM AND TARGETS. 1979-1984
2.1. Scope
The market observation system is concerned with the  developments in international goods transport by road,  rail and inland waterway between the Member States.
2.2. Need for a Market Observation System
The desirability of having a market observation system  was explicitly stated in paragraphs 49 and 87 of the  Commission's Communication to the Council of 25 October  1973 relating to the development of a Common Transport  
Policy (1) i.e. t
"49.Forecasts of transport supply and demand will have  to be drawn up regularly to help the Community in­stitutions to define the framework referred to in  paragraph 43. These forecasts will help to prevent  investment errors and the exhaustion of natural re­
sources and will also enable the public authorities  in the Member States, transport firms and transport  
users to improve their decision making."
"87.The Commission will investigate suitable means of  developing the system of transport statistics so as  to provide the necessary information for the stu­dies to be carried out and so as to obtain statist­ical data on transport supply and demand, with  special reference to forecasting."
I
(Paragraph 43 refers to the question of decision  making at the appropriate level).
In setting up the market observation system three prob­lems concerning the availability of data on internat­ional transport movements of goods would have to be  
overcome :
- some information was not being collected at all (for  example; the business opinion surveys and price sur­
veys in some Member States);
- some information was being collected nationally but  not brought together in a Community framework (for  example, cost and price surveys in some Member  
States);
- some information was being brought together in a  Community framework but the dissemination was very  
slow.
In addition, no systematic analysis was being carried  
out on a Community level.
(1) Bulletin of the European Communities, Supplement No. 16/73.

- 4 -
2.3. Targets 1979-1984
2.3.1. Presentation and publication of results
While the determination of the elements of the market  observation system is extremely important, the rapid  dissemination of the results of the system is even more  important. This follows since, in the long run, the  usefulness of the market observation system will be  judged by whether it helps the authorities and indivi­dual transport operators to make decisions at the time  
they need to take those decisions.
2.3.2. Forecasts
To be fully effective, a market observation system  needs forecasts of the future situation as well as an  analysis of past trends. The detail required in these  forecasts depends on the timescale concerned. Fore­casts at three different time horizons are needed :
- frequent global forecasts to foresee turning points  
in the market- annual forecasts to show the prospects for each mode  in the year ahead; these are needed, for example, by  the authorities to determine annual road quotas- detailed medium term forecasts to help, for example,  transport operators with their investment decisions.
2.3.3. Data improvements
The establishment of a market observation system re­quires not only information on the tonnage transported  and tonne—kilometres by each mode but also the price  charged for such services and the costs incurred by the  transport operators. It is also useful to have the  opinions of the transport operators on the state of the  
market.
In order to follow adequately the turning points of the  market sub-annual data is needed which is available  rapidly after the end of the period concerned. More  detailed data will be needed on an annual basis while  for the medium term it will be necessary to take  
account of structural changes.
2.3.4. Computing
In view of the large quantities of data involved, at  least in some surveys, it is necessary for computers to  be used, either inside or outside the Commission serv­ices. In addition to the computing needs of the sepa­rate surveys, it is also necessary to bring the results  together into a common data bank so that the results of  
the different surveys may be easily cross-analysed.

- 5 -
2.3.5. Budgetary implications
A marginal cost approach was proposed for the work re­
quested by the Commission. Thus where the Member State  
is not carrying out a survey of a specific type, the  
Commission would pay 100 % of the cost. Where a Member  
State is already carrying out a survey for its own  
purposes, for example the Dutch and German price  
surveys, the Commission would just pay the marginal  
cost of producing the special output it required.

-  6 -
3. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MARKET OBSERVATION SYSTEM DURING
THE PERIOD 1979-155? ------------------------ ---
3.
1. Scope
Implementation of the market observation system started  
with road haulage as this was considered the most comp­
lex area for development? development of a parallel  
inland waterways system followed with about one year's  
delay. Development in the rail sector has been slower.
Important forms of combined transport, such as piggy­
back transport and containers by rail, have been inclu­
ded in the system since the end of 1982.
In the case of inland waterways, it has also been nec­
essary to look at both national and international mar­
kets in order to assess the supply side.
3.2. Presentation and publication of results
3.2.1. Form of presentation of results
The market observation system produces results relating  
to various periods - sub-annual, annual and medium  
term. in order to disseminate the results quickly,  
separate publications are needed to take account of  
differences in the frequency of results.
3.2.2. Choice of sub-annual period
Although transport tonnages on rail and inland water­
ways are available on a monthly basis through the nor­
mal management information available for these modes,  
much other data would have to be specially collected,  
often on a sample basis. The cost of running the whole  
system on a monthly basis would thus be prohibitive if  
adequate samples were to be obtained for each month.
A quarterly basis was generally adopted for the market  
observation system, this being an appropriate compro­
mise between the need to keep costs down and the need  
to detect turning points in the market.

- 7 -
3.2.3. Publication of results
To give adequate publicity to the results, the Commis­
sion decided to publish a number of reports in the  
EUROPA TRANSPORT series; these are issued under the  
authority of the Director-General for Transport. The  
following series of publications have been produced or  
are planned before the end of 1984, dates in brackets  
refer to the completion of the manuscript.
1981
Transport Surveys,  Nos 1-4, covering the results of  
the quarterly business opinion survey among road haul­
iers.
Market Developments,  Nos 1-2, covering other quarter-  
ly indicators.
From 1982
Market Developments,  Nos 3 - 6  (1982), 7-10 (1983),  
11 - 14 (1^84), covering all quarterly indicators.  
Annual Report,  1981 (June 1982), 1982 (November 1983),  
1983(July 1984); reviewing the previous year.
Analysis and Forecast Report,  First Annual Report (for  
1981)(January 1981), 1982 (January 1982), 1983 (Feb­
ruary 1983), 1984 (May 1984); 1985 (November 1984) giv­
ing forecasts for the indicated year and, in the case  
of 1984, forecasts for the medium term, 1987, as well.
3.2.4. Delays in the publication of results
While there was a delay in the preparation of results  
during 1983 due to staff shortages, there have also be­
en considerable delays from the time the manuscript was  
finished (the dates quoted in the previous section) to  
the time where the report was actually published. This  
was due, of necessity, partially to problems of trans­
lation (the Market Developments report is published in  
EN, FR and DE, while the other reports are published in  
all Community languages, including GR), and partially  
due to time required for printing.
Since this delay has at times exceeded six months, a  
system of circulation of pre-printed copies to about a  
100 key users has be^n initiated using the original  
language only.
3.3. Forecasts
3.3.1. Quarterly forecasts
The principal objective in preparing quarterly fore­
casts has been to help those modes in which there are  
many operators to pool their collective opinions (the  
railway companies having sufficient resources to make  
such forecasts themselves). This has been done in the

-  8 -
road and inland waterway sectors through orie question  
relating to forecast activity in the Business Opinion  
Survey (for further details see 3.4.3. below).
The results which have been published in the Market  
Developments series show, for example in Report No. 11,  
that road hauliers have been quite good at forecasting  
the market (figure 2.1.) although their forecasts tend  
to exaggerate seasonal variation. Forecasts for the  
Rhine, however, (figure 3.1.) are not so accurate, i.e.  
they did not foresee the upswing that occured at the 
beginning of 1983? this however may be due to the fact  
that the operators are asked to forecast three months  
further ahead.
3.3.2. Annual forecasts
It is the annual forecasts that have been given the  
most attention in the market observation system so far.  
Forecasts have been prepared for each relation (Member  
State to Member State), for each mode, and for each of  
10 commodity groups (the 10 chapters of the N.S.T. -  
standard goods classification for transport statis­
tics) .  No separate forecasts have been made for com­
bined transport.
Since transport activity is a derived demand, it is ne­
cessary to make use of exogenous forecasts of the total  
and sectoral economy in order to obtain transport  
forecasts. The relevant equation, for each commodity  
group for each relation, has been established using  
past data and the exogenous forecasts fed in to obtain  
the transport tonnage forecast for all three modes.  
The modal split of this tonnage between the three modes  
has been carried out by extrapolating from the observ­
ed modal split for the commodity group and relation  
concerned.
Because of the scale of the work involved and the need  
for a consistent approach, the work of preparing the  
basic forecasts has been entrusted to an outside insti­
tute. it has however always been the Commission's in­
tention to bring the work in—house eventually.
The most recent results show a further increase for  
road and inland waterway transport in 1984 (6 % and 3 %  
respectively) while rail is expected to be stable. To-  
transport by all three modes is thus set to rise by  
4 % so that total international transport between the  
Member States will almost return to the peak level est­
ablished in 1979.

- 9 -
3.3.3. Medium term forecasts
Medium term forecasts examine structural changes in  
the market and thus require different techniques to an­
nual forecasts where the state of the business cycle  
has a predominant importance.  The approach adopted has  
thus been similar to that for infrastructure planning  
but with a different final output - for example, de­
tails of fleet composition as opposed to lock sizes.
Extensive plans for medium term forecasts had to be  
abandoned after completion of the initial phase due to 
lack of funds in 1980; thus it was only possible to  
complete an analysis of foreign trade movements (1963,  
1968, 1973, 1977), an analysis of transit movements
through the Benelux ports and an analysis between hire  
and reward and own account operators in international  
road transport to and from the Netherlands.
A more limited research exercise has recently been  
undertaken which is restricted to Germany, France, the  
Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg (and Switzerland)  
and which concentrates on inland waterways. This more  
limited exercise was carried out with the specific aim  
of providing a methodology to forecast fleet  
requirements for inland waterways in connection with  
proposals for a scrapping policy.
The results show that the long-term upward trend of  
total transport between the Member States is forecast  
to grow at an average rate of 3% per annum through to  
1987. While the results from the fleet size model are  
*  encouraging, the preliminary results from the modal
split model indicate however that this model needs  
further development.
3.4. Data improvements
3.4.1. Situation in 1978
It is interesting to recall the market trends outlined  
in the Commission's original Working Document SEC (77)  
3074 of 8 September 1977 which was requested by the  
Council prior to the setting up of the market  
observation system on an experimental basis. This  
showed, in Chapter 1 of Part 2, that the most recent  
data available on a Community basis related to the  
flows between EUR—6 for 1974, i.e. nearly 3 years out  
of date; limited other data were also available for  
traffic to and from the United Kingdom and to and from  
Denmark.

-  10 -
It is important to note not only that these traffic  
data were very out of date, but also that there was no  
information on a Community basis concerning prices,  
costs or the opinions of operators ;  nor were than any  
short or medium term forecasts produced for market, as  
opposed to infrastructure, purposes.
3.4.2. Quarterly Tonnages
When work on the market observation system started in  
1979 no harmonised quarterly data on Member State to  
,  Member State tonnages was available to the Commission.  
Initially various national sources were used which in­
cluded commodity details, these were frequently based  
on foreign trade statistics.
With the introduction of three statistical directives,
Road (1), Inland Waterways (2) and Rail (3), the situ­
ation has improved but there are still difficulties as  
follows ·
i) for rail and inland waterways monthly data is  
available (with a delay of 3-4 months) but there is  
no commodity breakdown.
ii) for road there is no sub-annual data. ^
Because of the advantages of using harmonised  
statistics and pressure of space due to the growing  
number of surveys covered in the Market Development  
Report, it became necessary to reduce the volume of  
work on this item so it was decided, somewhat  
reluctantly, to leave out details of commodity  
breakdown.
In practice, the main quarterly analysis of tonnages  
has been carried out at an "EUR-7" level (EUR-6 +
Denmark) since suitable data relating to the United  
Kingdom and Ireland has not been available while the 
time series of available data relating to Greece is  
only from 1982. However with the standardisation of the 
sources used for rail and inland waterways it has  
recently become possible to start giving the full  
matrices, at least for these two modes. It is planned  
to do the same for road in the near future despite the  
diversity of sources.
As the data discussed above are normally available  
within 4 months of the end of the quarter concerned,  
and the target dates for completion of the manuscript  
of the Market Developments Report is the 25th February,
25th May, etc., the quarterly tonnage data published in  
any report relate to the previous quarter but one.
TlT Directive 78/546/EEC of 12.6.78; 0J L 168 of 26.6.78, p.29
(2) Directive 80/1119/EEC of 17.10.80; OJ L 339 of 15.12.80,  
p. 30
(3) Directive 80/1177/EEC of 4.12.80; OJ L 350 of 23.12.80,  
p. 23

3.4.3.-  11  -
Annual tonnages and tonne-kilometresf
The quantity of annual data is much more extensive and  
permits a more detailed structural analysis to be  
carried out in the Annual Report or an ad hoc basis.
The target date for the completion of the manuscript of  
the Annual Report (six months after the end of the year  
concerned) does however pose a number of restraints as  
only certain tables of the rail and inland waterway  
directives are due to be presented to the Commission  
within this deadline, while in the case of road, a  
12-month delay in submission to the Commission is  
foreseen. This has meant that analyses of the results  
from the road directive have to relate to the penulti­
mate year, and analysis of the most recent year has to  
be done from miscellaneous sources (as in the quarterly  
report).  Further analysis of rail and inland waterway  
annual data can begin in 1985 when the programme to  
computerize the results from the directives is further  
advanced (see 3.5.1. (iv) below).
3.4.4. Business Opinion Surveys
One of the objectives in introducing Business Opinion  
Surveys with road and inland waterway operators (it is  
not appropriate in the case of rail)  was to obtain the  
opinions of the operators on the activity levels in the  
market before the "official" statistics became avail­
able .
It is for this reason that the questions asked on acti­
vity in the Business Opinion Survey (road) are rather  
complex since it was considered that the results were  
of little use, especially at national level, unless  
they could be subdivided by relation and by direction.  
Other questions in the Business Opinion Survey are of a  
type more often found in such surveys, these relate to 
utilisation, recruitment of drivers, liquidity problems  
and investment.
Introduction of the Business Opinion Survey (road)  
started in the third quarter of 1979 (Belgium, France,  
Italy, the Netherlands), during 1980 for the rest of  
EUR-9, and in the fourth quarter of 1981 for Greece.
In the case of the inland waterways, a slightly simpler  
questionnaire is used and separate surveys are carried  
out on the Rhine and the North/South (canal system be­
tween the Netherlands, Belgium, and France to the west  
of the Rhine). A Business Opinion Survey on the Rhine  
has been carried, out by the Central Rhine Commission

-  12 -
(CCR) since the beginning of 1978 in conjunction with  
the Rhine Navigation Consortium (CNR).  The CCR has  
made available special analyses to the Commission,  
these relate to the movements by NST Chapter (the  
important ones NST 2 (coal etc.)* NST 3 (oil etc.), NST  
4 (ore etc.) and NST 6 (sand/gravel etc.) are analysed  
in the Market Development Report).  Other data  
collected by the CCR relate to utilisation and freight  
rates.
On the North/South, Business Opinion Surveys have been  
.  carried out in the Netherlands and in Belgium since  
1981 but not in France. The French authorities did not 
introduce such a survey because they had other inform­
ation on the market situation available quickly. Add­
itionally, the Belgium and Dutch shippers report on  
their experience to and from France, so that a partial  
knowledge of the French market is directly available.
3.4.5. Price Surveys
Price surveys have always been seen as the key indica­
tors in the assessment of the health of the market.  
This is because price levels have a twofold use;  
firstly, they monitor the balance between Remand and  
supply and, secondly, by comparing price and cost evo­
lution one has an indicator of the financial situation  
of the undertakings.
In venturing into the field of price surveys, not only  
have technical difficulties been encountered (which are  
outlined below),  but also difficulties have arisen due  
to the sensitivity of publishing detailed results which  
could have a commercial value to competing transport­
ers .
The Commission's services have attempted to overcome  
these difficulties by restricting publication to price  
indices rather than absolute prices.  However the  
maximum benefit of the price data can only be gained by  
using it more extensively; such extensions being ex­
amined with the appropriate professional organisations  
concerned with specific modes of transport. Evidently  
there is a question of mutual trust here, since one  
mode will be unwilling to consider extensions if a  
competing mode only agrees to limited publication of  
its figures.
The technical difficulties that have arisen relate lar­
gely to the wide variety of possible journeys that can  
be undertaken, especially for road transport, and the  
ensuing difficulty in calculating useful indices. More  
details of the difficulties are given in the paragraphs  
on each mode which follow below.
In the case of road, an extensive feasibility study,  
carried out in 1979, suggested that the principal var­
iables used in the obligatory tariff system, that is

tonnage, distance and type of goods should be collected  
for a sample of journeys and the average price  
calculated for a typical journey.
In spite of encountering a number of difficulties, it  
has been possible to carry out price surveys and calcu­
late indices since 1980 {Germany, France, the Nether­
lands), since mid-1981 (Italy, Belgium/Luxembourg),  and  
since mid-1983 (Greece). Pilot surveys have been car­
ried out in the United Kingdom and Ireland, but for  
various reasons the survey in the United Kingdom has  
been discontinued. Plans to carry out the survey in  
Denmark had to be abandoned due to internal Danish dif­
ficulties .
In the case of inland waterways, .  a feasibility study  
carried out in 1980 suggested that somewhat simpler me­
thods could be used than for road. This was due to the  
limited number of key routes and the limited number of  
important types of goods.
As far as Rhine traffic is concerned, detailed inform­
ation is Collected by the CNR and indices are transmit­
ted via the CCR. With regard to North/South traffic,  
price information is available at the bourses, but this  
has not been previously analysed in any systematic way.  
Work on the extraction of price data is about to start.
The feasibility study carried out on rail prices sug­
gested a number of options based on real prices, but  
none of these were acceptable to the railway companies  
who put forward a counter proposal, using a basket of  
published tariffs. The railway companies claimed that  
the widely practiced system of discounts was suffi­
ciently stable as far as international traffic was con­
cerned that the indices calculated on either tariff or  
real price basis would be virtually identical. The  
Commission's services accepted this proposal with some  
reluctance on the understanding that the system would  
be reviewed after several years experience.
One of the advantages of the proposal adopted is that  
the indices can be calculated very quickly after the  
end of the quarter, once, of course, the basic "bas­
kets" have been established. Further the cost of main­
taining the system is very small except for the peri­
odic updating of the baskets.
The initial system was started by the establishment of  
a basket of tariffs for traffic between Germany, France  
and Italy; this involved cooperation between the rail­
ways concerned, DB, SNCF and FS. The first indices  
produced in 1983 were for the relations France/Germany  
and France/ltaly. The Netherlands and Belgian railway  
companies, NS and SNCB, have recently been integrated  
into the system.

- 14 -
3.4.6» Cost Surveys
Cost surveys are traditionally carried out by establi­
shing a breakdown of costs in a base period and then  
monitoring the movement of the cost elements, fuel,  
wages, etc. using an unchanged cost structure. Thi.8 
approach has the advantage of being fairly easy and in­
expensive to carry out and imposes a minimum burden on  
the transporters themselves who are only involved when  
the cost structures are periodically revised, say every  
4 or 5 years. One disadvantage of this approach is  
that it ignores productivity improvements so that care  
must be taken in comparing cost and price indices.  
Productivity improvements probably reduce costs by  
about 1 % per annum, but it is difficult to obtain a  
precise figure.
in the case of road costs, a unified approach had al­
ready been developed by consultants for I.R.U. (inter­
national Road Union) and this approach was adopted by  
the Commission after carrying out a feasibility study  
to see whether the necessary data and cost structures  
were available in the Member States; 14 different cost  
elements were identified.
Work on road cost indices was first published in April  
1983, but it was possible in most Member States to work  
the series back to 1.1.1978. Initially the full analy­
sis was limited to six Member States (Germany, France,  
Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg and Denmark), but later  
when the United Kingdom cost structures became avai­
lable it was possible to carry out the full analysis  
for U.K. as well (previously it was only possible to  
follow the cost elements).
The road cost indices are produced on a 6-monthly basis  
and, for most Member States, the results are available  
only 6 weeks after the reference date.
In the case of inland waterways, a feasibility study  
showed greater discrepancies between the methods used  
in the Member States concerned. However, following  
constructive discussions between the institutes  
involved, a common approach was adopted, and the first  
published results produced towards the end of 1983. It  
is also intended to work the series back to 1.1.1979.
In the case of rail, there has been certain reluctance  
to discuss costs, the path being strewn with pitfalls  
such as the allocation of overhead and track costs  
between passengers and freight movements. There has  
however been a positive reaction from several railway  
companies to carry out a feasibility study on this ^
difficult subject.

- 15 -
3.4.7. Combined Transport
Statistics on combined transport have been established  
with the assistance of INTERCONTAINER (Société interna­
tionale pour le Transport par Transcontainers) for rail  
container traffic and of INTERUNIT (Société internatio­
nale pour le Transport par Ferroutage) for piggyback  
traffic.
For container traffic, Intercontainer distinguishes  
data for border-crossing European rail container traf­
fic and container traffic via European ports. This is  
measured in TEU's and TEU-km (twenty-foot equivalent  
units-(km).  Data are provided on a quarterly basis.
For piggy-back transport, each "organising company" in  
Interunit provides data on the number of units des­
patched, i.e. the total number of semi-trailers, swap  
bodies and road trains carried by rail wagons. Further  
statistical details are not available.
Some annual data on combined transport is also avai­
lable through the Rail Directive (Table 7).
3.5. Computing
3.5.1. Computing of separate surveys
The main use of computers in processing the separate  
surveys is given below s
(i) Business Opinion Survey (Road and Inland Waterway)
- development of in-house programs (for ICL 2982)  
to process tabular results received from  
contractors into summary tables;
(ii) Price Indices (Road)
- development of programs with external contractor  
to process records and produce summary indices.  
Work on transferring these programs in-house has  
been initiated.
. !
(iii) Forecasting (Short Term)
- the current contract with an outside contractor  
includes provision for preparing a program which  
can be transferred in-house.
(iv) Statistical Directives (Road, Rail and Inland  
Waterway)
- the need was to have the data from the  
statistical directives more quickly and in a  
more flexible form than has been available  
previously; work on writing basic programs  
in-house has been initiated.

- 16 -
3.5.2. Creation of a Transport Data Bank
The availability of several large transport data bases  
to the Commission's services, namely the Market Observ­
ation System, the Statistical Directives and the de­
tailed cross-sectional data base used for Transport In­
frastructure purposes, has lead to the agreement to 
create a major transport data bank at the Commission.
3.6. Budgetary implications
3.6.1. 1979-1981
The budgetary requirement for the first experimental
period, 1979-1981 was originally estimated at
1,290,000 ECU.
The outturn for these three years was :
1979 :  290,985 ECU
1980 j  468,943 ECU
1981 :  424,995 ECU
1979-1981 :  1,184,923 ECU
f
3.6.2. 1982-1984
The budgetary requirement for the second experimental  
period, 1982-1984 was originally estimated at 800,000  
ECU per year.
The present situation relating to these three years
1982 s  599,996 ECU outturn
1983 :  699,395 ECU committed
1984 î 800,000 ECU authorised

4. ROLE AND FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS OF THE MARKET OBSERVATION
SYSTEM
4.1. Aids to Community Policy Development
While the Commission considers it essential that the  
editorial style of the EUROPA TRANSPORT publications  
should continue to be neutral but not neutered, espe­
cially as between modes, the body of information held  
in the market observation system can and should also be  
used as an aid to Community Policy Development. Some  
examples of the. use of the data held or being developed  
in the market observation system are given below.
4.1.1. Adjustment of road tariffs
In addition to providing overall trends on prices (as  
published in EUROPA TRANSPORT), the work on road prices  
in the market observation system will also be used to  
help the Tariff Committee in its work on monitoring the  
trends of actual prices in relation to the tariff  
price. The data can also be used to help those res­
ponsible for checking the factors used in establishing  
the structure of the road tariffs.
4.1.2. Community road quotas, New methods
In agreeing to a new method of automatic adjustment of  
the total number of Community quota authorisations, the  
Council wished to replace the annual debate over the  
adjustment with a system that would provide an agreed  
basis over a five-year period (+30%, +15%, +15%, +15%,  
+15%). The Council did however also agree that, in the  
event of an exceptional increase in demand for road  
transport, it would, on the basis of a proposal from  
the Commission, consider an increase in excess of the  
basic agreed increase; this procedure would ensure that  
the Community quota continued to gain a rising share of  
the market subject to authorisation.
The market observation system can be used to, identify  
and quantify such exceptional situations.
4.1.3. Inland waterways scrapping policy
The quantification of a scrapping policy for inland wa­
terways carried out in collaboration with the Central  
Rhine Commission (CCR) requires several economic  
assessments, i.e. current oversupply, the development  
of demand in the medium term, orders placed for new  
vessels, expected scrapping in the absence of any spec­
ific scrapping scheme and additional scrapping due to  
the introduction of a specific scheme. Much of this  
information can be derived directly or indirectly from  
the market observation system.

- 18 -
4.1.4. Development of a combined transport network
The first stage of the Commission's policy on combined  
transport has. been to encourage this mode of transport  
by legislative actions. In the second stage, questions  
of marketing are being considered such as
- What is the potential demand for combined transport?
- What network of routes would be viable?
- Are there bottlenecks in the establishment of such a  
network?
The Commission is working closely with the commercial  
organisations on the potential of combined transport.
4.1.5. Railways
In the case of the railways, the relevance of the mar­
ket observation system is different from other modes as  
the Commission is less concerned with detailed problems  
of capacity. The work on forecasting, short and medium  
term, does however provide an assessment of demand for  
rail services in the context of likely future growth  
rates of total transport for the three modes (road,  
rail and inland waterways) taken together.
4.2. Flexibility or Rigidity
The Commission considers that the market observation  
system should be seen more as a flexible market intel­
ligence system than as a rigid series of enquiries.  
This is not to say that the market observation system  
should not have regular underlying series of data, but  
if the limits of the work are too closely defined at  
any one point in time than there is a risk that the  
relevant problems of the day will be outside its scope  
of reference.
As an example, consider the question of combined trans­
port. Article 7 of the Directive on Combined Transport  
(1) calls for improvements to be proposed :j.n connection  
with combined transport statistics. While the link be­
tween the market observation system and combined trans­
port was indicated in paragraph 5.3.4. of the Commis­
sion's 1980 Report to the Council (2), no specific pro­
posals were made for the market observation system in  
this area at that time. Contacts with Intercontainer  
and Interunit have however subsequently permitted
TT) Directive 82/603/EEC of 28.7.1982  
(2) COM (80)785 final of 5.12.1980

- 19 -
- a section on combined transport to be added to the  
EUROPA TRANSPORT publications
- the difficulties of obtaining comparable data for  
piggyback companies to be appreciated
- useful working relationships to be set up with In  
tercontainer and Interunit for the improvement of  
data as a prelude to planning an optimum network.
A further example arose in the case of the medium term  
forecasts. At the time of trying to implement this  
work, budgetary resources did not allow a full study of  
all three modes over the whole of the Community. A  
flexible approach was adopted by which resources were  
concentrated on the principal problem of the day where  
the Commission needed to establish its position, namely  
the problem of overcapacity in the inland waterway sec­
tor. Because of the interdependence between capacity  
for national and international movements in north­
western continental Europe, it is not practical to con­
sider international movements alone.  The scope of the  
study was thus extended to cover national movements.
Another form of flexibility relates to the carrying out  
of surveys for a particular mode by all the relevant  
Member States. While the Commission hopes to persuade  
all Member States to carry out the relevant surveys, it  
is accepted that, for the peripheral Member States,  
certain surveys will seem of limited value especially  
where results are presented in a detailed way as is  
customary in the central Member States. Of course, a ^
fairly cohesive approach is required for the principal  
country to country flows since otherwise a Community  
system does not exist.
These examples show why the market observation system  
has needed flexibility. The Commission considers that  
this kind of flexibility needs to be retained in the  
future since not only it is necessary for the system  
to evolve but also it is necessary to foresee develop-  
ping needs for information two or three years ahead.
4.3. Improved dissemination of information
4.3.1. Delays in obtaining information
' 1 .
While the results of the business opinion surveys and  
the costs surveys can be obtained and processed within  
four to six weeks of the end of the quarter concerned,  
other surveys relating to prices and statistics  
frequently require three to four months. It is not  
considered that any substantial improvements in these  
delays can be made, especially in the short term.

-  20 -
4.3.2. Delays in analysis
The quarterly publications programme adopted for the  
MARKET DEVELOPMENT series of EUROPA TRANSPORT means  
that results which come two months after the end of the  
quarter concerned are processed with the next quarter.  
This timetable is enforced not only by the need to pub­
lish on a regular basis but also by the need'to concen­
trate resources on the analysis during certain limited  
periods to enhance both human and computing efficiency.
4.3.3. Delays in publication
The EUROPA TRANSPORT publications have suffered both  
from normal and, occasionally abnormal, delays in pub­
lication. This severely reduces the value of the mate­
rial when it is finally published. The Commission will  
continue to strive to reduce publication delays to a  
minimum, with a target of publishing the original  
language version within 2.5 months of the end of the  
quarter under review.
4.3.4. Dissemination of more detailed information
The information published in the EUROPA TRANSPORT se­
ries, especially the quarterly publications, has to be  
restricted to what the average reader will find inte­
resting. The sophisticated reader may find his area of  
particular interest covered somewhat superficially,  
this is almost inevitable in a wide-ranging publica­
tion. It has been necessary to become even more strict  
with the number of pages on each subject as the number  
of subjects covered by the report has expanded.
The Commission plans to expand its service of dissemi­
nation of the more detailed information where this can  
be justified. To keep such work within reasonable  
bounds, it will probably be necessary to limit this  
work to ad-hoc publications or circulation of tables  
with minimum descriptive text. The development of this  
latter will be particularly aided by the bringing to­
gether of the various elements of the market observa­
tion system into a computerised transport data bank.
In the longer run it may also be possible '(or users to 
have direct access to the information in the transport  
data bank so that they may consult the most recent in­
formation or carry out their own analysis.

-  21  -
4.4. Forecasting
The Commission intends to continue to develop forecas-  
1  ting methods and to bring the forecasting methodology  
back in-house as soon as posible; this will facilitate  
the testing of alternative scenarios and strategies.
4.5. Further improvements in data collection
While section 4.2. stresses the need for flexibility,  
no specific new surveys are anticipated for the market  
observation system except for some possible work on  
productivity. In the case of official statistical  
sources a number of improvements are foreseen or are  
under consideration. Briefly, these are :
Three Directives (road, rail, inland waterways)
- International inter-regional (all three modes)
- Subdivision of Eastern bloc countries (road)
- Cross trades (road)
- Quarterly tables (road)
- Type of vehicle (road)
- Vehicle movements (road)
- Empty movements (road)
- Type of licence (road) (possibly).
- Quarterly commodity breakdown (rail and inland water­
ways )
- Full train loads (rail)
- Sea-going vessels on inland waterway (inland  
waterway)
\
Combined Transport
- Statistical improvements (Article 7 of Directive  
82/603 and Directive 80/1117).
Foreign Trade Statistics
- mode of transport,
- container,
- nationality.
4.6. Computing
Further developments in computing relate to s
- completion of the transfer of data processing to in-  
house machines
- implementing the transport data bank (mentioned in
3.5.2.)
- development of a tool for testing policy options
- direct transmission of results from contractors to  
Commission.

-  22  -
4.7. Budgetary implications
4.7.1. Marginal cost approach
The approach adopted so far has been to pay for the  
marginal cost of the work requested by the Commission.  
The Commission proposes to continue to finance work on  
the same basis.
4.7.2. Future cost of the market observation system
Now that most of the planned elements of the system are  
operational it is not expected that there will be any  
substantial rise in the annual cost above the level of
800,000 ECU for two to three years beyond a further mo­
dest allowance to incorporate Spain and Portugal in due  
course. After that the real cost can be expected to  
remain constant.
4.7.3. Funding arrangements
-------------- ------ f
Th
e appropriations required for the market observation  
system will be entered annually in the Budget of the  
European Communities.

- 23 -
5. CONCLUSIONS
1. After more than 5 years experience at the experimental  
stage, the Commission considers that the market obser­
vation system has clearly demonstrated its utility and  
should be continued on a permanent basis. The informa­
tion used in the system so far has been obtained either  
on a voluntary basis under contract or through existing  
legal instruments.
2. The Commission considers that the system should conti­
nue in cooperation with the Member States.
The Commission will report to the Council every 3  
years, on the developments of the system and the major  
results achieved.
The Commission considers that such a system should have  
a legal basis and accordingly it invites the Council to  
reconsider its proposal as last amended in 1980 (1).
3. The Commission's services have found it most useful to  
consult the Member States experts on the various tech­
nical problems that have arisen on the introduction of  
new surveys and to review from time to time the metho­
dology and results of such surveys.
The Commission considers that it is essential that such  
consultations should continue in the future.
4. The Council is therefore invited
(a) to approve the continuation and development of the  
market observation system, at a cost which is  
intended to remain at about its present level of
800,000 ECU per year;
(b) to note that the Council will be kept fully  
informed on the market observation system by means  
of a report to the Council every three years;
(c) to reconsider the proposal of the Commission as  
last amended in 1980, with a view to providing a  
legal basis for a permanent system of market  
observation;
(1) OJ No. C 351, 31.12.1980, p. 32.