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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(88 )656 final
Brussels ,16November 1988
COMMUNICATION TOTHE COUNCIL
"TheGreenhouse Effect and the Community "
Commission work programme concerning theevaluation of
policy options todeal with the "greenhouse effect "
and
draft
COUNCIL RESOLUTION
onthegreenhouse effect andtheCommunity
(presented bytheCommission )
1pi §9ff–^7 ?rsiIS3 43

Draft Communication from the Commission tothe Council
"THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
AND THE COHNUNITY "

-2-
CONTENTS
Paragraph
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS A~C
I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
What thegreenhouse effect isinshort 1-2
Greenhouse gases :emission sources andatmospheric 3-10
concentration trends
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse 11-13
gases concentrations
Potential impacts ofclimate changes 14-21
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction 22
Theworld conference on"TheChanging Atmosphere " 23
(Toronto ,27-30 June 1988 )
Future possible developments 24-28
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTION
Introduction 29-31
Research activities 32-36
37-42Page
4-11
12-13
13-20
20-27
27-32
32-33
33-38
38-40
40-41
42-44
Préventive action 44-48

Paragraph Page-3-
Planned adaptation 43-45
Cooperation with developing countries 46
IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION 47-58
ANNEX
The "Villach "Conférence A
(Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 )
TheEECSymposium on"CC^andother greenhouse gases " B
(Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
<
Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding C
toclimatic change "(Villach -Austria ,28September -
2October 1987 andBellagio -Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
TheBrundtland Commission's report D
TheEuropean Parliament resolution E48-49
49-50
51-54
56
57
58-60 •
61
61

-4-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
A. SUMMARY
A.1 . Introduction
On19July 1988 theCommission hasdecided tocreate aninterservice
group toelaborate bymid-November 1988 preliminary ideas on
possible Community action inrespect ofthe "Greenhouse issue ".
The aim ofthis document ,based onthe work ofthe above mentioned
group ,istogive anoverview ofsuch issue and topresent
conclusions and recommendations about further work tobeimmediately
started ,action tobeurgently undertaken and onthepossible role
oftheEuropean Community intheinternational debate onthis
complex subject .
A.2. Thegreenhouse issue
A.2.1 .Thepresent climatic conditions onthe earth aregoverned toalarge
extent bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Water vapour ,carbon dioxide (CC^),methane (CH^),nitrous oxide
(N^O),ozone (O^)and,since recently ,CFC's,byabsorbing part of
theinfrared radiation which isemitted bytheearth tobalance the
incoming solar radiation ,store part ofthe latter inthe
atmosphere .
A.2.2.Man ismodifying atanunprecedented rate thecomposition ofthe
atmosphere .Concentrations ofall the socalled "greenhouse gases "
areincreasing due tointerference ofhuman activities with the
biogeochemical cycles ofsuch substances .Thesize ofthese
modifications issignificant interms ofpotential climatic changes .
Weknow today that thethermal balance oftheearth isbeing
modified and that some warming andpossible associated climate
changes wilt follow depending onthesize ofsuch modification .

-5-
A.2.3.Themost relevant greenhouse gasisCOgwhose emissions aremostly
duetofossil fuels burning (5Gtons ofcarbon /year *),woodburning
anddecomposition offorest biomass linked todeforestation
(0,5-2 Gtons ofcarbon /year ).
C02ispresently responsible forslightly more than 50%ofthe
greenhouse effect .Another 25%ofthis effect isdue toCFCs used
inavariety ofapplications such asaerosols ,spray cans ,air
conditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,packaging ,etc .Therest is
attribuable tomethane (CH^)from livestock ,ricepaddy fields ,
natural gasexploitation ,inefficient burning ofbiomass andcoal ,
tonitrous oxide (NgO)coming from fossil fuels combustion andfrom
nitrogen fertilizers useandtotropospheric ozone dueto
photochemical processes inthepolluted atmosphere .Emissions of
greenhouse gases have been significantly increasing inthe last
decades .
A.2.4.Based onthe results ofglobal climate models itmaybeconcluded
that theearth will becommitted toanincrease oftheaverage
surface temperature intherange of1,5-4,5°C byadoubling ofthe
pre-industrial equivalent greenhouse gases concentration .Atthe
present trends ,this isexpected tohappen before theyear 2050 .
A.2.5.Present climatic models arenotcapable tooffer reliable regional
assessment ofpotential climatic modifications corresponding tothe
above mentioned average increase ofsurface temperature .
Rough evaluations show that over Europe temperature increase could
belarger than theworld average .
A.2.6.Theindirect impacts ofsuch climatic modifications might be
summarized asfollows :
-asealevel rise (from 30cmto1,5mfor awarming intherange
1,5-4,5°C );
-aréduction ofsea ice;
-aréduction ofwater resources insome régions ;
-modifications inagricultural productivity ;
-human health andecology impacts .
* O
1Gton=10tons=1.000million tons

-6-
A.3. Theinternational framework andperspectives
A.3.1 .Ascientific consensus onthebasic facts ofthegreenhouse issue
referred toinprevious paragraphs was reached atthe "International
Conference ontheassessment andtherole ofCO^andofother
greenhouse gases inclimate variations andassociated impacts
(Villach ,9-15 October 1985 ).
A.3.2.Conclusions oftheVillach Conference were further developed atan
EECsymposium inBrussels (3-5November 1986 )on"CO2andother
greenhouse gases :climate andassociated impacts "and atworkshops
inVillach (28September-2 October 1987 )and inBellagio (9-13
November 1987 )on"Developing policies for responding toclimatic
change ".
(
A.3.3.Thegreenhouse issue wasalso considered intheframe ofwork bythe
Brundtland Commission .Following recommendations ofthat Commission
aWorld Conference on"the changing atmosphere ,implications for
global security "hasbeen held inToronto (27-30 June 1988 ).The
following actions i.a .were recommended bythat conference :
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .
-Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofCO2andother trace
gases inorder toreduce the risks offuture global warming .
-Reduce CO2emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal intheindustrialized
nations .
-Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inCO2andother greenhouse gases .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention .
-Establish aWorld Atmosphère Fund .
A.3.4.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activities isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess for
preparing anagreement onthegreenhouse issue ,including eventually
protocols onlimitations ofgreenhouse gases emissions .

-7-
A.3.5.Next essential events onthewaytothat agreement will probably
be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1990
bytheNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;
-theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
-theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
A.4 . Possible actions
A.4.1 .Policies todeal with thegreenhouse issue might include preventive
and/oradaptive actions .
A.4.2.Preventive action isthat aiming atcurbing greenhouse gases
emissions inorder toreduce expected effects .
Incase ofC0£,theenergy sector ingeneral andforestry inthe
tropical regions arethemost relevant areas forintervention .
Examples ofenergy measures which could contribute tocurb CC^
emissions are :
-increase energy efficiency (both onthesupply andonthedemand
side );
-switch toless carbon intensive fuels ;
-promote renewable energy sources andsustainable useofbiomass ;
-promote safe nuclear energy .
Thepromotion ofinnovative energy technologies tosupport such
measures seems tobeofparticular importance .
Inthelong term newnon-carbon based energy systems could give a
significant contribution tocurbing CO^emissions .

-8-
Ofcourse not alltheabove mentioned measures areequally
effective .Moreover ,acareful assessment oftheir economic
viability isrequired .
Forestry policies should tend toreverse present deforestation
trends especially intheequatorial regions .This would in
particular require promoting substitutes forwood used massively as
fuel inthose regions andpromoting sustainable agricultural
practices sothat agricultural expansion didnotinvolve large scale
forest burning toclear land .
A.4.3.Possible action todecrease emissions ofgreenhouse gases such as
CH^and^0isless easy toidentify given theuncertainties
surrounding emissions ofthese substances .
Thefollowing subjects could beexplored :
-Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural
# gas .
-Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
-Minimize^0emissionfromfossilfuelsburning.
-Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^
release .
-Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
^0release from nitrogen fertilizers use.
A.4.4.Incase ofCFC's,thenearly total elimination ofCFC'semissions
should befeasible bytheyear 2000 byconstraining production and
recapturing ,recycling ordestroying CFC'sinexisting products .
A.4.5.Adaptation measures (i.e. thoses required inorder toprevent or
decrease damages duetoclimatic changes andassociated impacts )
might berequired todeal with effects which ,despite preventive
actions ,come outtobeunavoidable .
Atthis stage itisnotpossible todetail adaptation measures which
could berequired intheCommunity because ofthelack ofareliable
regional assessment ofpotential impacts .

-9-
Ingeneral ,adaptation todeal with the sea level rise could include
seawall /flood barriers ,national flood insurance programmes ,
construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ),
abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas ,other
relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites ,protection of
coastal ecosystems .
More study isneeded toidentify possible adaptation measures in
other sectors such asagriculture andforestry .
B. CONCLUSIONS ONTHE STATE OFKNOWLEDGE ONTHE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
8.1 . Thecomposition oftheearth 'satmosphere isbeing significantly
modified byhuman activités .
Based onresults ofglobal climatic models ,scientists agree that a
doubling oftheequivalent COgatmospheric concentration will bring
anincrease oftheaverage surface temperature intherange
1,5-4,5°C .Such doubling islikely tohappen within thefirst half
ofnext century .
According toclimatic data theresulting change inaverage global
climatic conditions will bebeyond therange ofclimates that have
existed during thehistorical past andduring recent geological
times .
B.2 . Thevarious impacts ofsuch climatic change andtheir socio-economic
consequences cannot bereliably assessed indetail atpresent .
However thepreliminary works made onthis subject show that the
risks arealarmingly high andthelikely direct andindirect
consequences potentially disruptive .
B.3 . Recent international events have introduced asense ofurgency in
theworld-wide debate ontheissue .Ithascome outclearly that
this isthetime towork outviable strategies while accelerating
research efforts .

10-
C. CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
C.O. Themain conclusions ofthis report are summarized here .Acomplete
presentation isgiven inChapter IVofthis document .
C.1 . TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer and theMontreal Protocol on
substances that deplete theozone layer and itshould participate
actively intherenegotiation ofsuch Protocol .
C.2 . TheCommunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthe future
protection oftheatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive an
important contribution tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch an
agreement which might include theestablishment ofspecific targets
forlimiting emissions ofgreenhose gases aswell asdefinition of
emission reduction measures andprogrammes .
C.3 . Therefore ,theCommission will take the initiative tolaunch a
substantial policy-options study programme toevaluate the
feasibility ,costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit
greenhouse gases emissions .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification and technical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
capable toreduce greenhouse gases emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications and impacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred irvparticular
topossible strategic targets forCO^emission ceilings .

11
establishing adecision analysis framework ,
identifying andevaluating adaptive policies .
TheCommunity anditsMember States should bynowtake into account
intheir policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors
relevant totheissue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes
linked tothegreenhouse effect .Early consideration ofsuch issue
could avoid higher costs infuture .
Moreover ,theCommission will take action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthe field ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency
improvement ,development ofnewenergy sources ,use ofsafe nuclear
technology .Theaccelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative
commercial-scale technologies inthese fields should begiven high
priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth
energy andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties
onsome scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCO.,reductions .
TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevent aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould provide new
energy technologies having thepotential tolimitCO^emissions .

-12-
I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
Uhat the "greenhouse effect "isinshort
1.Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue,among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere ,theaverage surface temperature of
theearth ,which ispresently ofaround 15°C ,would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact ,theheat balance oftheearth ,which receives radiation from
the sunandreflects orre-emits itinto the space ,islargely governed
bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour ,mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere ,isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature oftheearth .
Moreover ,other substances such ascarbon dioxide (COg),methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (N2O)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from thesunbutto
retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth aslong wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
bytheearth .^
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part ofthe radiant energy
coming from thesun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange oftheglobal thermal
balance ofthe earth .
Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer ")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from theearth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthe lower atmosphere .Anychange
inthe vertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

-13-
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofC02,
CFCs,CH^,N20,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthelower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthesize ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from the sun ispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairand isthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases ;emission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times andarestill increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO^):
a.Emission sources :
Most ofanthropogenic C0_emissions areduetofossil fuels burning ■
(around 5Gtons ofcarbon peryear ).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
C02world yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution to-emission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon per year .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthelast 25years .
* O
1Gton =10tons =1000 million tons

-14-
Theshare ofCC^emissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts oftheworld and itsrecent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
COjemissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and as%ofworld total
1950 I 1965 I1980
I Region |Mt/y* IX IMt/y*X IMt/y*IX I
INorth America I723 I44,7 I1003 32,1 11380 126,7 I
|URSS andEastern Europe I291 I18,0 I750 24,0 11251 124,2 I
IChina I23 I 1/4 I178 5/7|439 18,5 I
IWestern Europe I379 I23,4 I643 20/61853 116,5 I
|Japan ,Australia I45 I2,8 I137 4/41300 15,8 I
(Developing Countries I92 I 5/7 I250 8/0|631 112,2 I
IOthers (worldwide gas I63 I 3/9I163 5/2|31016,0 I
Iflaring ,bunkers ) ! ! I I I
I
|World total
II I
I1618 I
I I100 I3126I
100 I
!I
5170 1100
II
I
I
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide andtheglobal carbon cycle "
USD0E/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton .
Thefigures above show thedramatic increase of emissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
The share ofthe total world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period duei.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
Thetrends ofCO^world emission from different fossil fuels forthe
period 1950-1982 areshown innext figure ,(source :USOOE/ER-0239
report referred toabove ):
5000Γ 1 1 ..1. I
4000 _
3000 _ f»
|2000_ -> vr' - Coi »XO ^ 1.72%' v*,r..A.–
σ» ..»*■–
o1000 _‘‘
s800:J? :
•2600-/ v^-~r'r*'~M y<
U^ •jr
*400f- .XO *<••/O -
200I-X
100i___ I_ I_ I_ I
1950 1960 1970 1980
Year
Thesteep increase ofyearly CO2emissions from oilandnatural gas
hasbeen slowed down oreven reversed after thefirst oilcrisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
useofoil,,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently ZO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel
I11985CO2emissions in|
Imillion tons carbon /yl
Igas ! 807 1
Ioil 1 2189 I
1coal I 2181 I
1gasflaring I 52 I
1Total I 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988

16-
Ь.
1ppmPercapita C0£emissions from fossil fuels fordifferent countries
areshown inthe following table ,referred to1982 :
I
ICountry |Per
|ofcapita CO^emissions (tons
carbon per inhabitant )I
I
I United States | 4,9 I
I German Dem .Rep . | 4,9 I
I Canada | 4,4 I
I Czechoslovakia | 4,1 I
I Australia | 3,9 I
I Soviet Union | 3,3 I
I Poland | 3,0 I
I Belgium | 3,0 I
I Germany ,Fed.Rep .| 2,9 I
I United Kingdom | 2,5 I
I Netherlands | 2,5 I
I France | 2,0 I
I Japan | 1,9 I
I Italy I 1,5 I
I Spain I 1,4 I
I China | 0,5 I
I Brazil | 0,3 I
I India | 0,1 I
I World average | 1,0 I
Calculated from :Smith ,I.M. (1988 ):CC^andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIA Coal Research ,London ,andUN
statistical data
Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
CO^hasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forCO^
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwas anaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
=part permillion =0,0001%

-17-
C(>2concentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ,mostly duetofossil fuel burning anddeforestation ,on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans .
andvegetation )arenolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore C02stored intheatmosphere . .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's):
a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 and CFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0,21 to0,23 ppb*and0,37
to0,39 ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is .
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofC02,onehasto
note that the rate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofC02,around 5-7%peryear,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10,000 higher than C02'ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomore than 100
years ).
*
1ppb=part perbillion =0,0000001%

-18-
Incase ofmethane (CH,) :
a.Emission sources :
■–■Present man-made emissions ofCH^-come mainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH.4
cycle isnotwell known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(+/- 3)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Oceans
Termites and other insects
OtherLakes
Tundra4(+/- 2)
3(+/- 2)
10(+/- 3)
25(+/- 20)
40(+/- 40)
Man-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle ,etc.)75(+/- 35)
Rice paddies
Biomass burning
Natural gas andmining losses
Solid Waste70(+/- 30)
70(+/- 40)
50(+/- 25)
30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-19-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasincreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1,54 and1,68 ppm inthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively ,in1983 ).Average yearly increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1,1% .
7.Incase ofnitrous oxide (N.,0 ):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions of^0aremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial and ocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
1.5 (+/- 0.5 )Fossilfuelcombustion
Biomassburning
Fertilized soils
Cultivated naturalsoilsOceans andestuaries
Naturalsoils
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
^0atmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppb toabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25% peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that the present increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isdue totheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere aresignificant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios maybedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease intheheat quantity which is
trapped inthe lower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes and inparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming and itstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks duetoclouds ,vegetation etc.areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forCC^,25%forCFC's,20%forCH^,^0and0^
together .

-21
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2075 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
theWorld Resources Institute interms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to...
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences oftherecent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy inall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5%by2025 .Inother studies this
share ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23%,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7%,Edmons =19% .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees the share ofnuclear inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3% ,1990 =5.4% ,2000 =7.1% .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andinput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas for further research and study .

22
Theresults are summarized innextfigure.
Commitment toFuture Warming intheWRI Scenario *
WRi Scénario »
1IпРI' 1
I 3025 I I 2030 I 2073
□Ам А АÀ2030 I 2073 1 AStow BuÜd-Up doc*notresch
CO|within ihtforvcut periodWRi Scénario »
[*)High Emissions
HBaseCase
|^|Modest Policies
Slow Build-Up
„,!!.ilii .ilSSlSllIllillfi : liiiSiBliiiliil
^!1‘П-)”■<5*^^
~|2023I2030|
□ÀÉÎIU ]À ÀSlow Build-Up docs notreach double
CO,within theforvcatf periodrr^r
I 3025 I 2030 I
iÀilR]À À
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to1.5to4.5degrees centigrade above pre¬
industrial temperature .
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to1.5to4.5degrees centigrade above 1960
temperatures .
Source :MintzerI.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees,
WRI,Washington DC,USA

23-
Energy Policies intheWRl Scenarios
Bue Case Scenario
•"Business -As-Usual," theinertial model ofgrowth and
change intheworld energy industry
•Nopolicies toslow carbon dioxide omissions
•Minima !stimulus loimprove end-use efficicncy
•Modcjt stimulus forsynfuels devciopment
•Minimal stimulus /ordevelopment ofsolar energy
systems
•Nopolicy tolimit tropical deforestation ortoencourage
reforestation
*Minimal environmenta !costs includcd inpriée ofenergy
High Emissions Scénario
*Accelerated growth inenergy useisencouraged
•Nopolicies toslow carbón dioxide emissions
•Nostimulus toimprovc end-use efficicncy
•Modest stimulus forincreased useofcoat
•Strong stimulus forsyn/uclsdevelopment•Nostimulus fordeveiopment ofsolarenergy systems
•Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmarginal lands to
agriculture
•Token environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
Modest Policies Scenario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forsolar energy
•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecosystem
protection ;more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantial environmental costs imposed onenergy
prices todiscourage solid fueluseandencourage
fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scenario
•Strong emphasis placed onimproving energy efficiency
•Rapid introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
•Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
•High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage solid fueluseandencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rate ofchange -0.8% peryear )
(Final Price-S3.15-S4.25 perCJin2005 )
(Final Price •$16.50 perCJin2025 )
($0.30 perCjforcoal ;$1.00 perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -0.2% peryear )
(Rale ofimprovement -0.75% peryear )
(Final Price-S2.75-S3.50 perCJin1995 )
(Final Price -$20perCJin2040 )
($0.15 perCJforcoal;$0.50 perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -1.0% peryear )
(Final price-$15.00 perCJin2025 )
(S0.60 perGJforcoal;$1.50perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofimprovement -1.5% peryear )
(Final Price-$12.00 perCJin2000 )
($1.20 perCJforcoal ;$3.00 perCJforsynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2inthtWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
”1 /..| WRI ScuuHot /
■High Emissions /a-^ ABMCJK /
2$JifModestPolicies S'
•Slow Build-up /
s y*
i“■
I X
<3 /
2
0
1».
12-
0Н- 1- 1- 1- 1- 1WRl SeuuHot
■High Emissions
▲Base Case
ifModest Policies
•Slow Build-up
1*73 2000 2023 2030 2073

24-
Byadifferent approach .Or.R.A. Warrich ofthe Climatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,hasrecently tried to
link emission forecasts andlikely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUAL TEMPERATUHE CHANGE [FROM1985IN°C)
(B)CLIMATE SENSITIVITY EQU,UBRXIM <™ANS.ENT )(C)CL1MAT|C CHANGE - --d--3->_
I 8.0-•
I ._(2.5jj._1)__■_
6.0+‘ ПГ"?
4.0T S
nle_U_r.00a.30T r i <
BESTGUESS :.45,
iIII v■r+z-rh-rrtn- .1:J.:•"~l~»J>.J–800700 800!500χ/\1θθ520052015202520352045
!EQUIVALENT COJCONC (ppmv)J ■ 1YEAR
I 11+//fl■‘l99'N. 1
2006 i
A YEAR >
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE [FROM1985IN°C)
(C)CLIMATIC CHANGE (B)CLIMATE SENSITIVITY-
_r_-
sT*<1-0-1.1)t_1°ITTRT--
1095 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
\ YEAR800 700 CÔO | 500
IEQUIVALENT CO.CONC (ppmv)j
I *I I 1
+2015
2026
2035
АА
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGYEAR
Legend :
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
T2X istheclimate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent CC^concentration
-"transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
due tothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothe greenhouse effect .

-25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
Given therange ofscientific uncertainties ,thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The "best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45% .
-The90%confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
uncertainties )thefollowing climate andassociated impacts ^* :
-Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable ).For adoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases ),thelong-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse ,theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice.
-Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).Astheseaiceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner seaicewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasmuch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987);Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA .

-26-
-Summer Continental Dryness /Warming (likely inthe long term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthesoil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods ,and anearlier onset ofthespring -tp-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse ,these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ). Astheclimate
warms ,the increased poleward penetration ofwarm ,moist air should
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations inthe upper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthe stratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from the stratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling will lead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they arenotaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )" (WMO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andonthe rate ofsuch changes should nothide
thefact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

-27-
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"Ct^andother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
I
-Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the21st century .
-...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
-Over Europe the range ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthesize andrate ofthelatter .Atthesymposium on"C0£and
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986);"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthelarge icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28-
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sea level rise are
avai labié .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1,5meter (Toronto Conference ,June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Astheclimate warms ,total sea ice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Water Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming mayresult insignificant changes inprecipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell asthe impacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCOgatmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have perseabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29-
into account should trytostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing C02concentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
(2)summarised below :
"-changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds)(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands .

30-
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthe level ofcrop certainty and inthecrop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers ,
pesticides andherbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics ,water resources ,hydrology ,pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent ,there isuncertainty about thenature ,themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude ,semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope andNorth-America .
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
USSRusing climate datafromthemodel byHansen^etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
due totheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthe local community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal (1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models Iand II",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclimate changes onagriculture given thelarge uncertainties
about theregional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthelack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts arerequired toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects andatCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems andTimber Production
Itisworth noticing that thesame general comment onthedirect
potential effect ofCO^onvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity and forest management ;
.disturbance oftimber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species and local
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32-
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion ofthe range of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct ,
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (the impact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend ontherate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled ,both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However ,itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks aredue toclimate andother natural causes orto
overf ishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22.Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall ,1863 ;Arrhenius ,1896 ;
Chamberlin ,1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duCO^parun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

-33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques àentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous lesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment quecesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables_politiques .____
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques surlesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985);
.theEuropean Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract CO^
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"COgandother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies for responding' toclimatic
change "(Villach-Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy ,9-13 November 1987 );
.TheBrundtland Commission 'sreport
.TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
The last event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging atmosphere ,implications forglobal
security "-Toronto ,27-30 june 1988
)

-34-
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized atthe initiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollow-up some oftheconclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries ,United
Nations organizations ,other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations ,thefollowing seem
most important and are therefore reproduced infull :
"-Humanity isconducting anenormous ,unintended ,globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel use and theeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security and arealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts will becaused byglobal warming andsea level
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase therisk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toact now."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments andIndustry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

-35-
Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofC02andother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofC02isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce C02emissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
Reduce C02emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly ,the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway,both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inC02andother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the 10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will notallbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally ,
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inC02andother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency ,a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade .
Apart from efficiency measures ,thedesired reduction will require
(i)switching tolower C02emittaing fuels ,(ii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;(iii)revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

-36-
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved ,through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements ,nuclear power
could have arole toplay inlowering COgemissions .
-Negotiate now onways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage ,review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies ,inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion ,toreduce (i)emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach the critical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;(iii)other non-Ct^greenhouse gases .
-Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
use oftheproduct .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations ,
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthefree
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring ,andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law .This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 ,thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands intheFall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 andtheSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference onSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .

-37-
-Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund ,financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialized countries ,tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
-Support thework oftheInter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
-Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme ,the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale arerelated toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining the role of
oceans andglobal heat transport andtheflux ofgreenhouse gases .
-Increase significantly thefunding forresearch ,development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy ,ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis ontheneeds ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
-Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
-Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making useof
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Development"s (WCED )report ,"OurCommon Future ",including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
-Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts ,monitoring ,research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

-38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement ,theWorking Groupe reports
andthefull Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere :Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )aremade available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception oftheissues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
environment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing thecrucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developaents
24.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39-
“theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
“theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.The substance ofthe convention mentioned under 24above (and of
associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse issue isconcerned could
probably consist in :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies and toreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onalltheaspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions onthewayhowtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects ofthe issue .
Inthis respect ,itisworth stressing theglobal ,complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (seeAnnex ):
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change ,including policy responses toit,andanumber of
other issues ,above allinthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion ,andhence bycountry ,ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect theeffort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

-40-
The report oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not,however ,beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomunity asawhole infacing it.
Still less should itencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into "winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ."
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures (i.e. measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures may beclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational level and require
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofCO^emissions );
(b)those which may betaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural and forest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

-41
(c)those ofanintermediate character (e.g. decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted ,taking account of(a)andofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Measures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.The above mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential for two reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change and itsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen ,when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain asthe range ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial to'know
-which danger ,when andwhere ,onehastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment ,theeconomy ,thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore ,thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel ,andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo.
Only inthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process ,bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
and needs .

-42-
Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with the study oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with theimpacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised intheframe ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially ontheclimatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,thecloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources andsinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshelves .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress ontheimpacts which climate change could have
onimportant sectors ofthe European environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and itsimpacts onthe European coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems and coastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops andforests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased CO^and
climate change ,theimpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects oftheclimate change asregards theprogressive
aridif ication oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,theimpact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-43-
(4)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources /theimpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail andfrost onEuropean
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themelting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthesocial ,economic andpolitical factors conditioning
probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,andlikely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
duetoclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcost line regions of
the sea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded and tohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system and itssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
34.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCO^isconcerned ,theobjective canalso beachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy and theefficient and
economic useofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification for aspecific energy
R&Dprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar.

35.Elimination ofCC^atthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
avai lable .
Newdirections for research inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCO^problem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .The first aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced and thepace ofthat
reduction .The implementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Environment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
Climate models are there toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment and tohelp construct scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute theimpact ontheeconomic
systems ofthecosts incurred bythereduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed intheSystem Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthedirection defined above foranalysing
energy related CC^emissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
Theaimofsuch research would betoevaluate thefeasibility andthe
costs ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ontheenergy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first atreducing the rate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations and inthe longer term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

-45-
38.Theonly way athand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incaseofCO^
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothe most
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39.Carbon dioxide (Ct^)emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,CO^emissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )andin
theforestry andagricultural sectors asfarasaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests .
Atentative list ofactions aiming atCOgemissions reduction which
could bestudied might include :
A.Energy related measures forCO^
i
There areseveral types oftechnical energy related measures that
could curb CC^emissions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse not all those measures areequally efficient or
cost-effective andoneshould make aclear distinction between the
physical potential ofCOgemission reduction ofagiven measure and
itseconomic viability .
Thefollowing technical measures ,which arelisted without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce CO^emissions from
carbon-based fuels :
a.Energy Efficiency
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars ,electronic
regulations ,etc.);

-46-
-improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHD,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuel switching toless CO^emitting fuels (therelation ofCC^
emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oil andnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased use ofnon carbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCC^atmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO^technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing CO^emissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used inthepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuseofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve CC^reduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
B.Measures related toforestry and natural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest ^ires;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
.-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry ,especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs emissions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
*
41.CH^,N^Oemissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
c.Minimize ^0emission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
^0release fromnitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible useofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-impacts arelikely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointhe short term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49-
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover ,even inqualitative and
simple way,alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However ,itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea-level rise andforimpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation measures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Sea walls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
-Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
~Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
45.Examples ofmeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland use tooptimise andtostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management ,such assoil erosion
control ,water management ,etc .
Cooperation with developing countries
46.Alltheabove measures ,both asregards preventive action andasregards
planned adaptation ,should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries ,andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation ,conserving wetlands ,coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

50-
b)bytaking into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which may beaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base line data being gathered forthepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthegreenhouse effect .

51
IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer andtheMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision ,
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bythe Toronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthe future protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets forlimiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
50.Therefore ,theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy~options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications andimpacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forCO^emission ceilings .

-52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
The focus ofthe exercise should beonEurope inafirst instance .
-establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabi listical lypolicy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models and theexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely linked tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views andrapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem ,theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy ,
involving inparticular developing countries ,towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP and ofOECD and IEA .
52.TheCommunity and itsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergyorother sectors relevant to
the issue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

k
-53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency improvement ,
development ofnewenergy sources ,useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority ..
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCO^reductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue and should promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit COgemissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded intheframe ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries andof
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
environment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaidto
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc.Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
–Thegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment andinbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

54-
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess the long-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
increased ,inrespect ofthe type ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect maymake more likely .(Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .) Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothework needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions oftheCommunity
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onalltheaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States andthe
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

Recent aajor events onthegreenhouse issue

-56-
A.The "VILLACH "Conference (International conference onthe assessment and
the rate ofC0-,andofother greenhouse gases inclimate variations and
associated impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference was jointly convened byUNEP ,WMOandICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthestatement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic and social decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past climatic data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothefuture .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthenext century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable duetopast
actions ,therate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models for adoubling ofthe
atmospheric CO^concentration could haveprofound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea ice."

-57-
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account the results ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development ,environmental
programmes ,andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
"Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change and sea level ,including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless ,theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases :climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofDr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bytheCEC,DGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric COgandother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthe scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent andcasual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

58-
-Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts ,decision
makers and the scientific community involved inthe issue ."
C.Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
(Villach -Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 andBellagio -Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses for limiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned inparagraph 28ofthis document ,the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
"Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
(1)Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer (thereby reducing
CFCemissions ).Recommend that itberatified urgently and that
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
ofthe schedule for reductions inCFCs and eventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gas limitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency ,reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing CO^
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan ,1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture ,

-59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc .Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason formeasures toreduce deforestation .
(4)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial andsocietal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills thatemitmethane ;NgO
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc .
Immediate steps tolimit the impact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic andsoil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning forlarge newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms ofC02equivalence )andthus to
theemissions andforeach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbesetin
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

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(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities ,
both with regard toglobal climate and itsvariability andsea-level
changes ,atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry ,aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what newclimate observing system activites arerequired for
monitoring thechanging climate ;
-what activities are required formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
The IOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea-level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU ,UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP),
which isthe focus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP,astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly ,thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ),initiated byICSU ,addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofimportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP and IGBP
should begiven high priority ."

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D.TheBrundtland Commission's report
TheWorld Commission onenvironment andDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins ,
mechanisms ,andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes andrising sealevel ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aimatan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E.TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofC02in
the atmosphere :
"TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc.
B2-1430 /84).

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-having regard tothe report oftheCommittee onEnergy ,Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc .A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth 'saverage
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning ,intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up ,which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator ,will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing outthat theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethescale thereof andthus the
number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
D.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment of 'theworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthe changes taking place ,andthe
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
andtoexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures are directed atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,the latter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy andinnegotiations with
both national andinternational authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

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3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational useofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls foraworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anend tothe deforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
6.Calls ontheCouncil when drawing upthenewframework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothearea ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon the industrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which are largely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with therelevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthe report of
itscommittee tothe Council and theCommission ."

Commission 'swork programme on
theanalysis ofpolicy options todeal with
risks associated with the "greenhouse :issue "
I. CONTENT OFTHE PROGRAMME
This programme should provide theelements useful toestablish the
possible role oftheCommunity andofitsMember States indefining and
promoting within theappropriate international fora themeasures needed
todeal with risks associated with thegreenhouse effect .
Tothis endthis work programme will deal with thefollowing subjects :
A.Identification ofPolicy options toprevent /reduce Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases .
Themeasures needed toachieve strategic target 'reductions in
emissions ofdifferent greenhouse gases will beidentified .
Foreach greenhouse gas,this will involve adetailed assessment of
theoptions available foremissions reductions ,the level of
emission reduction associated with each option ,andthepackage of
measures needed toachieve strategic target reductions .The
potential foremissions prevention /reduction will beconsidered for
thefollowing sectors :
-energy production ;
-energy consumption (including transportation );
-industrial productions ;
-use ofproducts ;
-agricultural activities .
Anappropriate approach will beneeded totake into account the
different specific situation ofcountries orgroups ofcountries .
Inparticular itwill need toconsider thefollowing :

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-State oféconomie development ;
-current energy policies ;
-geography .
G. Implications ofOptions forEmission Reductions .
Theemission reduction options will beexamined toassess the
following :
-technical and industrial implications ;
-financial and économie implications ;
-political ,institutional andsocial implications .
C.Development ofaDecision Analysis Framework .
Aframework will bedeveloped inorder tostructure theavailable
information onallaspects ofthegreenhouse issue ,insuch away
astoallow identification oflikely benefits (interms of
reduction ofrisks ofclimate modifications ,etc.)corresponding to
different policy options .Theframework will take account of ;
-emissions andemission reductions ;
-theimplications ofthese réductions ;
-available scientific data onthepotential benefits of
alternative emission controls .
Theframework will bedesigned totake account ofuncertainty about
emissions ,effectiveness ofcontrols ,climate change andeffects
andwill allow fortheidentification ofthemost likely outcomes
resulting from different actions .
Theframework will also allow the implications ofdelaying action
tobeexamined .Bystructuring theproblem andidentifying key
areas ofuncertainty towhich outcomes aremost sensitive ,the
framework will provide animportant tool forevaluating actions and
forfocussing future research onkeydecision questions .

-3-
0.Evaluation oflikely benefits ofdifferent policy options byuseof
adecision analysis framework andestablishment ofthe climatic and
impact scenarios resulting from implementation ofemission control
options .
Theframework will beused todetermine thepossible outcomes of
thealternative emission reduction options andtheir timing
(scenarios ). Itwill also indicate the relative likelihood ofthe
benefits that would beachieved .
E. Identification and evaluation ofadaptive measures needed under the
different scenarios worked out under D.above
Even with the implementation ofemission control policies there
will still beresidual risks associated with past emissions andthe
remaining future emissions totheatmosphere .Adaptive measures
(i.e. actions toprotect people ,property ,agriculture andeconomic
andnatural resources )will therefore need tobeidentified tocope
with these risks .Themagnitude andlocation ofkeyresidual risks
wilt beidentified and the cost and time implications oftaking
different adaptive measures will beevaluated .Adaptive measures .
will need tobeprioritised toinsure maximum residual risk
reduction with resources available ,andthat focus isplaced onkey
areas ofconcern .
II.DETAILED LIST OFACTIVITIES
Theexecution ofthis programme will require i.a .thefollowing
activities :
A.Emissions analysis andémission réduction options .
i Prepare emission trend analysis foreach Greenhouse gas .
These emissions should beanalysed by (a)region (b)by
political ,strategic andeconomic groupings .

-4-
ii Determine factors (other than implementation ofcontrol )
likely toinfluence future emissions .Assess their likelihood
and develop alternative emissions scenarios .
iii Identify theavailable emission control options foreach
Greenhouse gas .Assess under thedifferent emission scenarios
theextent ofthepotential reductions .
B. Assessment ofEmission Control Options Implications
i Determine thepracticality ,cost andimplementation timing of
each ofthe emission reduction measures .
ii Assess the social and economic effects .
iii Assess the distributional effects (a)within individual
countries ,(b)between countries ,(c)between political and
strategic groupings .
C.Establish aframework tointegrate information developed during the
work programme
Theframework should bedesigned to :
-show theimplications ofalternative actions ,including thecosts
andpotential benefits ;
-indicate theimplications oftaking action atdifferent times ;
-indicate the robustness ofpossible decisions (oncontrol
strategies oradaptive strategies )taking account ofthe
uncertainties inthepredictions and intheavailable scientific
data );
-provide afocus onthefurther research required tosupport the
decisions that need tobetaken .

AnAssessment ofEmission Control Strategies
i Determine thelikely benefits that would beachieved through
theEmission Control Strategies .This work will require a
critical review ofmechanisms linking Greenhouse gas
concentrations toglobal warming with particular reference to
feed back systems ,timing andimplications forregional
climates .
ii Based onthecritical review ,prepare anassessment ofthe
likelihood ofthealternative predictions andtheir
implications .This work should integrate theviews ofthe
principal experts and ifpractical probabilities will be
assigned toreflect theuncertainty ofdifferent outcomes .
iii Drawing onthis information ,andoninformation developed on
emission reductions (A)andtheir implications (B),the
decision framework developed under Cwill beused toassess
the costs ,benefits andother implications ofalternative
emission control options .
Assessment ofAdaptive Measures
i Review the implications ofdifferent levels ofwarming
particularly onEuropean infrastructure andfood supply ;
identify other keyimplications .Assess theeffects onother
political andeconomic groupings ofcountries .
ii Undertake areview ofoptions that might beimplemented to
respond tothepotential changes Ci)(egnewcrop varieties ,
changing planning practices ,etc.).
iii Based ontheassessment undertaken in(D)andusing the
framework developed in(C),assess thecosts andbenefits of
alternative adaptive measures ;assess thelikelihood that such
adaptive measures would prove effective taking account ofthe
predicted effects .

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III .GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PROGRAMME
A. Inexecuting this programme the Commission will take full account
oftheother relevant activities both inside theCommunity and
worldwide ,such as :
-the ECresearch programme onclimatology andnatural hazards ;
-the ECjoint research center programmes onenergy conservation ,
solar energy and thermal conversion ,nuclear safety ,etc.;
-the outcome ofrecent international conferences (such asthe
conference ontheChanging Atmosphere ,Toronto ,June 88);
-TheUNEP /WMOworking party onclimatic change ;
etc .
Tothis end theCommission will establish appropriate cooperation
with therelevant organizations involved insuch activities .
8.Assisted bytheCommittee referred toinArticle 1oftheDecision ,
the Commission will define theprocedures and theconcrete steps
forthis working programme ,aswell astheinformation tobe
provided byMember States .
Competent organizations andgovernment departments inMember States
will beassociated with the work through the above mentioned
Committee .
IV.FINANCING OFTHE PROGRAMME
Thefunds estimated asnecessary fortheimplementation ofthe
programme amount to6million ECU .

Draft
Council resolution onthegreenhouse issue andtheCommunity
TheCouncil oftheEuropean Communities ,
Having regard totheTreaty establishing theEuropean Economic Community ,
Having regard tothedraft resolution from theCommission ,
whereas theTreaty establishing theEuropean Economic Community ,asamended
bytheSingle European Actprovides forthedevelopment andimplementation
ofaCommunity policy ontheenvironment andthesame Treaty also provides
that inpreparing itsaction inthis field ,theCommunity will take account
oftheavailable scientific andtechnical data andofthepotential
benefits andcosts ofaction oroflack ofaction ;
whereas this resolution isguided bytheconsiderations setout inthe
resolution of19October 1987 concerning anaction programme ofthe
(1)European Communities ontheenvironment i.e. thedesirability ofaction
attheappropriate level andtheneed tocoordinate work atinternational
level ,toassess thebenefits and costs oftheactions envisaged and to
make adequate technical andpolitical preparation forsuch action ;
whereas theavailable scientific data ,inparticular results from Community
Environmental Research Programmes ,show that thecomposition ofthe
atmosphere isbeing significantly modified byhuman activities and
according totheavailable climatic models this could finally bring ,bya
socalled "greenhouse effect ",climatic modifications involving important
impacts ontheenvironment ,onhuman beings andtheir activities ;
whereas ,given thenature andthesize ofrisks involved inthegreenhouse
issue ,itisurgent toexamine possibilities foraction aiming at
preventing orreducing those risks ;
(1)OJn°C328of7.12.1987 ,p.1 .

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whereas intheframe ofrecent international conferences ,avery broad
consensus hasbeen reached ontheneed ofurgently considering measures to
reduce greenhouse gases emissions :
whereas ,given thecomplexity ofthegreenhouse effect issue andthemany
andfarreaching implications both ofthis effect andofmeasures which
could beconsidered toprevent ortomitigate itsconsequences ,acareful
prior examination ofpossible policy options isrequired which should be
made byappropriate methodologies taking inparticular into account
adequately theuncertainties still outstanding onseveral aspects ofthe
issue ;
whereas itisoftheutmost importance that theCommunity and itsMember
States are inaposition togive afundamental contribution tothe
reflexion onandelaboration ofpolicy decisions tobeeventually taken
within theappropriate international fora inorder toact inthemost
effective manner against therisks ofclimatic modifications .
Welcomes thecommunication from theCommission on"thegreenhouse issue and
theCommunity "andapproves itsmain conclusions andrecommendations ;
Declares that theCommunity should devote increasing attention totherisks
ofpotential climatic changes involved inthegreenhouse issue andshould
contribute substantially topromote reflexion anddiscussion onpossible
measures tocounter those risks ;
Welcomes the initiative ofthe Commission tolaunch awork programme
concerning theevaluation ofpolicy options todeal with risks associated
with thegreenhouse issue andapproves theobjectives ofsuch programme ;
Invites Member States tocooperate actively with theCommission inthe
execution oftheabove mentioned work programme and tocoordinate their
relevant activities onthegreenhouse issue within that framework ;
Invites theCommission topresent totheCouncil and totheEuropean
Parliament aprogress report bymid of1990 and afinal report onthe
results obtained bythat work programme andontheconclusions drawn by
end 1991 .