ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(75)125
Vol.1975/0043

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COMMISSION GFTESEUROPEAN COMMUMTH3S
COM(75)125 final
Brussels ,16April1975
WORKINTHEFIELDOPEMPLOYMENT
(Communication fromtheCommission totheCouncil)
COM(75)125final

WORK INTHE FIELD OFEMPLOYMENT
Thepresent employment situation anditsfuture development are
causing major concern inallthemember countries .They call for
theCommunity 'sspecial attention forseveral reasons .Firstly the
persistence ofunemployment isnotonly costly anddangerous from a
social point ofview hut italso seriously affects thecohesion ofthe
Community andcould provoke unilateral defensive measures .Secondly
the Community has atitsdisposal various instruments which -either
directly (theSocial Fund andfreedom ofmovement )orindirectly
(commercial policy )exert aconsiderable influence onemployment trends .
Lastly ,tiaresumption ofthework ,oftheStanding Committee on
Employment will require theCommunity toadopt aposition onanumber
ofquestions ortotake significant actions inthis field .
TheCommission hasalready submitted totheSocial Conference in
December (l)adocument presenting anoverall strategy forthecontrol
ofemployment trends inthepresent crisis .Ithasalso submitted
proposals relating tocertain aspects ofemployment problems tothe
Council (inparticular female employment andmigrant workers ).
Furthermore itispreparing anewproposal dealing with theintervention
oftheSocial Fund inthepresent crisis (intheframework ofArticle
4ofCouncil Decision 71/66ofthe1stFebruary 1971 )•
However thevarious actions which theCommunity isadvancing must
bebased onacoherent approach designed toimprove andspeed-up the
analysis ofproblems ,toidentify theareas where action bythe
Community should have priority andwould beeffective ,andlastly to
(l)Document SEC(74 )4943 -Prospects forEuropean Social Policy .

provide guidelines forthecontent ofitsproposals .Such work assumes .
that theCommunity intensifies theefforts ithas "been making to
comprehend theemployment market and itsforseeable tendencies andthat
itundertakes actions tocoordinate national employment policies .
Oneach ofthese questions ,theCommission hasstarted acertain
number ofworks andenvisages their further development asapriority
inthe near future .
This isthe context ofthe three attached communi cations which
theCommission istransmitting totheCouncil .
Thecommunication dealing with thecoordination ofnational
employment policies isparticularly important inthis respect .
This item ,which ispart oftheSocial Action Programme calls forclose
cooperation between thenational administrations and the Commission .
Theannexed document isbased ontheexchanges ofviews held over the
last year with theDirectors-General forEmployment .Itproposes a
short-term work programme andasks theCouncil togive itspolitical
support inorder toassure thedevelopment oftheplanned work .
Thecommunication dealing with employment forecasts presents a
I
brief balance-sheet ofthework done over thepast year ,andwhich
should shortly result inafirst report ontheoutlook inthemember
countries .Italso indicates the orientations and thework methods
which should allow afruitful development ofthework undertaken .
Finally theresearch programme oftheemployment market sets out
theorientations togovern theuseofthebudgetary credits foreseen
forthis purpose inthe1975 budget (article 3050 ,assigned provisionally
under article $8).
•This programme isintheframework oftheimplementation of
Article 118and can 'oeestablished bycommon agreement between the
Council and the Commission .

-3-
Thesedifferent tasks essential inordertoallowthe
Community to"betterfillitsroleinthecurrentemployment crisis–
andtoensurethebestusepossible oftheSocialFundandthe
establishment oftheworkingoftheStanding Employment Committee on
asoundfooting-.
Thefirsttwocommunications donotcallforformal >desisions
fromtheCouncil..Howeverthepolitical impulsewhichtheCouncil .
couldlendwouldhelpthereinforcement ofthecooperation betweenthe
national services andtheCommission whichisinaispensible forthe
efficient carrying cv.tofthework. , ,

/jwejct
THECOORDINATION 0?EMPLCmiENT POLICES
"Aixrve-aril?vigor-ors .toidicoordinated :ncllonmustW'VsJwn '"at
Ccnteac&iRp -levelto.deadvith-+b©Ipro-hileaiofc^ploysent ""declared --KUe
P-jpsi#Smanitt'eetxcp -ofDeoeuifcer -.1974>M?hiswiii_requiretfa^.-JIemfrer
Stntms,inconjuuctlxm .idiifctiworpEaiasrtiona ooacernecl^-to--cooK-ins.te■■
thiLir .aajilaynsirt policiesin«uaappropriate i'r?&nerandtosotpriority
tnar^ts*" _ _. .
Thisdeclaration showsthespecialimportance ,underpresent
circumstances ,oftheitemintheSocialActionProgramme dealingwith
thecoordination ofemployment polciies (l).Thepresentserious
employment situation inIheCommunity isnotsimplytheresultof"•
cyclicalfactors.,Itisalsothe'■oneeg.aer.^e ofthaiprolonged I•
inflation suffered "bytheMemberStatesforseveralyears»Furthermore
theredeployment ofresources necessitated bytheincreaseinenergy
price :-:and-currentindustrial andsocialchangewillcall'forlaiconsiderable
efforttoadaptthelabourmarketscftheCommunity o(l)
IntheSocialFundtheCommunity hasanoperational instrument
whoseinfluence isbeginning tobe*rfruitjaspecificproposalis
beingprepared aimedatdeveloping theactionoftheFundinthe
restructuring beingcarriedoutasaresultofthecurrentcrisis.
TheRegional Fund,onitsside,willallowforastrenghtening of
Community actioninthestimulation ofinvestment andeconomicactivity
./.
(l)-Se9document S3C(74)1358"Employment problems andtheenergy
situation "
-seecTocuJnVsiir'SE0(74-)4*43'"Theiiprtrspecrtr&i for-EuSrope?® ;Social
Policy"drawnupfortheSocialConference ofDecember 1974«
UT0A®V7TAytOT.OITO31TCOOS-ÇjJ-ÍIVTfS{DV.ffOO' p9fíí^GV

_0_
intheleastfavoured areasoftheCommunity .
Howevertheinfluence whichtheCommunity canexercise on
employment throughitsoperational instruments Islimited#
Inrealitythedevelopment ofemployment intheMemberStates
depends ontheinterplay ofanextremely varriedrangeoffactorn
amongwhichaparticular importance should "begivantot
-ontheonehandnational ,policies aimedat.bringing abouta,better
balanceonthelabourmarketthroughactionsinfluencing bothlabour.supply
anddemand } /
-ontheothercertain -Communitypolicies (suchastheintegration v•
ofmarkets,commercial policy,aidpolicy)primarily developed to
iheetotherobjectives butexercising amajorinfluence onthe
development andpattern ofemployment *Throughtheseactionsthe...
Corannmity hascreatedasubstantial interdependence between
national employment policies whosesignificance isnotalways ,
sufficiently appreciated .
The.diversity ofthesefactors andthe.multiplicity ofthe
responsible institutions whomanagethemarejaotu«connectelwiththe
difficulties encountered forseveralyearsinthedevelopment ofa,,
clearconception ofCommunity actionasregardsemployment .
I ....
Thereestabiislraent oftheworkcftheStanding Employment Committee
createsthepossibility of&oki.eving inpractical termstheobjective
ofcoordinating employment underlined intheSocialActionProgramme *.
Thisopportunity callsforanactivecontribution totheproblems
V

-3-\
I
connected with employment from theCommission ,theCouncil andthe
national authorities *Theefforts needed will imply aserious and
concerted preparation bytheCommission andtheMember States ofthe
substance ofissues tobediscussed .
Itistheview oftheCommission that avigorous andcoordinated
action inthe fj.elc ofemployment depends ontheonehand oa.aneffort
atdialogue andtheclarification ofconcepts andontheother ona
series ofpreaise tasks tobeundertaken incooperation between the
; - '
Community andthenational leveis .
I.Thecoordin ation atCommun ityleve lofemployment polici es:object andcontent
Theaimofemployment polioy istocontribute along with general
' economic polioy to'-the establishment ofashigh alevel ofemployment
aspossible while assuming thequalitative andquantitative matching
ofsupply anddemand onthelabour market .Inorder toattain this
objective itprovides serviced andfinancial aids design©' -tJ t
ensure .workers' access toemployment ,theprotection ofemployment ,
thefulfillment atwork oftheir professional andpersonal capacities
a»dtheimprovement oftheir working conditions ,These goals are
developed with theparticipation andthecollaboration of'the Social
Partners ,fallowing methods inline with thetraditions am'
'legislations -ofeach country .Although viewed foralong time inan
essentially defensive andremedial role employment policy ismore and
more assuring thefunction ofanticipating risks toemployment .
Thus employment policy tends ,inmost Member States tobe
concerned with thesupply ofmanpower andwith thelabour market *
Questions dealing with thedemand forlabour andthecreation ofnew
employment ,aremainly dealt with bydecisions relating toeconomic
policy ,industrial policy andregional policy .

Atanationallevelthisdivisionoftasksiscompleted "bya
permanent ,dialogueallowingthoseresponsible forsuchjobcreating
policies tohearthepointofviewofthoseresponsible for
employment policy.
AttheCommunity levelontheotherhand,thoseresponsible for
national employment policycanonlyexpresstheirviewsthroughindirect
channels whetherthroughtheirnational colleagues whoare
responsible foreconoraio ,industrial orregionalpolicies orthrough
theintermediary oftheiropposite numbersinsidetheCommission ,.
Thisanalysis leadstoithefollowing consequences for•
:■coordination » ■»,
1°anintensive coordination mustbeestablished between -those
responsible atanational levelforemployment asregardactionsfor
whichtheyareresponsible especially theprotection ofemployment ,the
conditions ,ofbalance onthelabourmarketandtheinstruments to
directthesupplyofmanpower.Itshouldalsoattempttodevelop an
aotivepolicyofemployment onacoordinated basis;
2°thecoordination ofinstruments dealingwiththedemandfor
manpowerdependsessentially onotherCommunity andnational .bodies•••
Inorto-4akemoresystematic *accountoftheemployment
dimension oftheotherCommunity policiestheCommission hasalready
takenthefirst.steps,bothontheinternallevel(technical work)
andonthe"levelofrelations withtheSocialPartners.Furthermore
it.might.be useful,,whennecessary ,toinformthoseresponsible ,ata
nationallevelToremployment aboutcertainimportant nspectsof
Community pplicies,andin'certain -casestoconsiderjointsmeetings
withthoseresponsible forothersectors.

-5-
!
. *
Priority tasks forthecoord ination ofemploy mentpolicies
Forthereasons which have just been mentioned ,thework programme
proposed "below forcoordination isdevoted essentially toquestions of
balance ontheemployment market andthesupply oflabour# Itconcerns
thetasks which theCommission could tackle in1975 and1976 without
prejudice totheproposals which itispreparing orwill develop for
the Council .
Thesetasks concern four areas Î
-mutual information ontheproblems ,theprospects andthe
priorities foreach country asregards employment ;
-anexamination incommon oftheemployment problems ofcertain
categories ofworkers (women ,young ,migrant workers )andthe
identification ofpriorities andofmeans forCommunity activities .
intheir favour ;
-examination and stimulation ofthe action ofnational and
Community instruments ofemployment policy }
-reflection enthemajor problems ofthemore long term
development ofemployment intheCommunity andofresponses thus
called for ,
!Hhework proposed below have been identified with thehelp of
theexperience acquired through themeetings with theCommission held
i in1974 with theGeneral Directors forEmployment .During a
preliminary discussion ofthis work ,they have expressed positive
reactions toitand -made ,certain suggestions which the "Commission hastaken
into account inthepresent communication .TheCommission also
expects tospecify further thecontents ofthese orientations during
thenext meetings with thenational administrations aswell aswith
the Social Partners .
/

-6-
•P**0^6111^and.priorities .intheMemberStajbes ..
Periodical exchanges ofviewontheemployment situation andon
theshorttermoutlookhavebeen.takingplacefora-year.'
TheCommission has"beenabletoimprovethecollection ofstatistics
onthenational employment situation andexpectstopresentbrief
reportstoeachcoordinating meeting;- >
•,.'Aspecialeffortwillbedevotedtotheidentification and
discussion ofthoseareasandformsofactionwhicheachMember
Countryjudgesas.priority forthecomingyear.Suchan.exercise ,
helpingthebetterunderstanding ofthediversity ofnationalsituations ,
wouldcontribute usefully tothedetermination offuture'-priorities
foroverallsocialactionintheCommunity ,andmorespecifically forthe
..action -.ofthe-'SocialFund.., ■- . ,'
Problemsassociated withcertaincategoriesofworkers^
Thedevelopment of'actionsbytheCommission forwomen,the
youngandmigrantworkersshouldbethesubjectofbothbroaderandmore
concrete exchanges ofviewswiththeresponsible nationalauthorities
foremployment .Theseexchanges shouldinparticular haveamajor
contribution tomaketothecoordination ofimmigration policies
'proposed bytheCommission .•'' '' ^
"Similarexchanges arerequiredtobringaboutaCommunity
action'topromoteyouthemployment' -animportant preoccupation and
onewhiekisnowcommon -4;oallthemember'countries .
3.Nationalaid'Community■instrumentsofemployment policy ,-
'Alongside actionsbycategorytherolebfthecentralinstruments
of'employment policyshouldbeexamined .,Asafirststagethefollowing
questions "shouldbelookedats"

a)nationalplacementservices.Thepassagsrtoarioperational stageofthe
Europeansystemfor-the.compensation -of"supplyanddemandoflabour(SEDOC),
in--tire,.framework :oof1-there^nrtB-tion~Dnr;freecircularti on tantia-
suppQrtintT.-acti.orLs at-.-iho£'itevei -.o£nutionul-_pI&oageflt.-s&rvigenEr .v orvicom
whichinmanycountries areundertaking amodernisation programme and
whicharebeingseverelytestedbythepresentcrisis-haveonmany
occasions shown-theirinterest inatechnical cooperation tobe
profioted bytheCommission (problemsxifmethodsofregistration ,
compensation andinformation)# Suchacooperation -interrupted isince
I972<-shouldbetakenupagain,inthisdifficult andunspectacular
field,whosecentralroleinthebalancing x>femployment isoften'
'underestimated . '>
b)therelationbetweenvocational training andemployment*In.this
fieldalso,thecrisishashittheMemberStatesatamomentwhen
thenational systemswereinfulltransformation .Thecreation of.
theEuropean CentreforVocational Training ontheonehandandthe
needsoftheSocialFundontheothergivethisfieldaconcrete
Community dimension ..Thequestion of,whethertheactionofthe
Consultative Committee rforVocational Trainingcouldnotbes-jr^osrted
bycomplementary workontherelation between employment andtraining
shouldbeexamined.Severalspecific questions ,arisingoutofthe
> >•*■ f.•
experience oftheSocialFund,deservetobeexaminedtogether (in
particular therole.ofincomeSupportsystems whileworkersarebeing
readapted ,theuseofvocational trainingcapacities intimesof
economicslack,etc...).
c)employmentlegislationandtheredeployment oftheworkforce ,
InthecurrentcrisesmanyMemberStatesareinvestigating thecontri­
butionwhichdifferent legislative orcontractual instruments con',
maketothenecessary redeployment ofmanpower resources ....Could
arearrangement ofpresentmeasures ontheleiigthofworkand
theag^of retirement ,contribute totheabsorption /
(1)Régulation n°1612/68(Art15)-O.J.n°L257/2of19.10.68.

,8-
offullorpartialunemployment througha"bettersharing-outof
thedemandformanpower-andatwhatroxtra •costt,otheeconomy ?
Isitdesirable tointensify ..thestimuliandthefinancial supports
%
forsectorial ,professional andgeographical mobility ?Suchquestions
shouldformthesubjectofacommonexamination bytheresponsible .
bodiesintheMemberStates.
4»Médiumterniprospects -
Theprésentemployment difficulties raisecertainmajorpToblems
fortheCommunity ,quiteapartfromtheimmediatB implications -forthepresent
•J,..
situation .Theseproblemsespecially concerntherealisation offull
employment inthenewconditions ofgrowth^theconsequences of
•<*..•'A#"'
theslow-down :in'immigration forfullemployment and"thep^srcribilitine .
10-job.enrichment , '■ :"■- :
Afirstreportonthemediumtermprospects willbeiavailable
shortly.Thiscouldconstitute apointofdeparture foranassessment
onthemediumtermproblemsraisedbytheneedtobalance employments ,
Atalaterstagethesereflections shouldberelatedtothe
preparation ofrthenextprogramme formedium-terra economic policy
whereEmployment shouldinprinciple playanimportant part.
1 *'' •,. '.\ ;•
III.Worlcing metliods ''''":
'In'order ,to,accomplish thisworktheCommission feelsthatitcan
precedepragmatically onthebasisoftheprocedures established "*last
year-.' ".1'"r1'.,:o­

-topursuetheregularmeetings oftheDirectors GeneralofEmployment
threeorfourtimesayear,following thepractice oflastyear.These
highlevelmeetingsshouldprovidethegeneralframework withinwhich
sometechnical meetings cantakeplace#Inparticular theywilldiscuss
andspecifytheworkprogramme }* ■ t
-toconsultand"bringtogether ,astheneedarises,expertsorthose
responsible inthedifferent operational areasmentioned intheprogramme
ofwork.
TheCommission however mustdrawtheattention oftheCouncilto
awishexpressed bytheDirectors GeneralofEmployment .Whilestating
theirpreference tomaintain aninformal character totheirwork,they
thoughtitdesirable toconsider thepossibility ofjointmeetings with
othercoordinating groups(especially thegroupconcerned withmedium
termeconomicpolicy).TheCommission hasnotedthiswish,whichitwill
takeintoaccountinduetimeinthecourseofdevelopment ofthework.
Theworkoutlined hereshouldbeclearlyseparated fromthe
decision-making processes fallingwithinthesphereoftheCouncil.
Whatisinvolved infactareexchanges andconfrontations ofexperiences
andofviewpoints neededtotr^srlenbothnational pesessments andtot;r:vide
the-t-'crrjieeipn withinformation .Thiscanlee*froratimetotime15".jr^unity
.lY-.-iaclcordecisions }buttheiressential contribution willoft«*l.-ethe
lovc.1 informal crossfertilisation .Eveninthiscarethetwill>*.ve
ccatriluted tothebreaking 5ownofbarriers surrounding -onesect'-r
aationollifewhereaccesstotheexperiences ofothersisparticy.lpjrl;;''
f.i'ficulttoobtainbutctranrlydesired.Theywillalsohavehel'.0-"'t-">
unre:?r.ininamoreconcrete waytheactionswhichtheCommission rust
un.-'.eT'icil© intheareaofemployment .

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Conclusions
'The'Commission askstheCouncil; ,
~totakenoteoftheprogramme ofcoordination setoutinthe
presentdocument %
-togiveitsagreement totheworkingmethodssuggested J
-toconfirmtheimportance whichitattaches tothecoordination
ofnational employment policies ,asdefinedinthepresent
communication ,andinparticular totheactionsitidentified asa
firststageforthiscoordination . ;-

mm. H
DRAFT COMMUNICATION TOTHECOUNCIL CNEMPLOY MENTFORECASTS _
Introductio n
1. The development ofemployment forecasts was adopted bythe
Council ,initsResolution of21January 197^»asapriority objective
oftheCommunity 'sSocial Action Programme .
2. TheCouncil hadpreviously discussed thequestion offorecasts
I
atthe end of1970 and stressed theneed for adetailed plan based
onaCommission draft .Inthis communication ,theCommission aims
tosetbefore theCouncil theplans andguidelines which itintends
toimplement .
The need for ,^.ndlimitations of,forecast s
3. TheCommission iswell aware ofboth theneed foremployment "
forecasts ,and their limitations .The need forthem isshown in
numerous areas ofCommunity activity ,such asemployment policy and
the free movement ofworkers ,vocational training ,theSocial Fund ,
andregional andcommercial policy ;italso appears tobeof
considerable importance toeconomic and financial policy where
information PJtidforecasts concerning' development Binthelabour market
are needed asabasis for decisions .
The limitations offorecasts are aresult ofboth uncertainty
andlack ofdetail .Employment forecasts suffer from the same
shortcomings asother economic forecasts ,inthat they cannot take
account ofall the factors which will determine actual outcome .
Moreover ,certain important factors may change after forecasts have
been drawn up,andthereby change the trends forecast .

5- However ,anydecision about thefuture isbased onhypotheses
about future developments ,whether there areformally expressed in
quantitative terms orare atanintuitive ,ornon formal level . . '
Explicit forecasts have two -major advantages '
over purely intuitive forecasts or . -
assumptions .Firstly ,they imply thestrict andrational identification
ofasmany relevant factors and information aspossible .Moreover ,,
they make itpossible ,when -the initial '"'data - have tobe
modified ,todetermine the eiffect ofthese modifications on
forecasts .Thenormal forecasting procedure istoupdate results
atregular intervals inthelight ofinformation available ,in
order toprovide acontinuous monitoring offuture prospects .
6. Oneofthemain difficulties inthedevelopment offorecasts *
lies inthe numbfer ofpotential users and thediversity oftheir *'
needs .The latter differ considerably depending onwhether the
information must beprovided forgeneral economic policy guidance ,
decisions about education ortraining ,orindustrial andregional
policy .Ofcourse ,,theresearch projects necessary tomeet these
different needs complement oneanother tutthey follow different orientations ,
particularly with regard tomethods anddisaggregation .The
allocation ofthe limited resources available must take into
account these differences,' inorder toachieve thebest possible
compromise between the various' needs . ■
Scope ofemployment forecasting work atCommunity level
(1)7. Initsconclusions ofDecember' 1970 , the-Council invited
theCommission todraw upa"complete anddetailed -plan inorder to-
stimulate anddevelop research work onforecasts oftheworking
population "oftheQommunity ,i.e«,forecasts ofemployment and
theavailable supplies oflabour intheCommunitv endto
./.
(1)Conclusions ontheoutcome oftheConference onemployment
problems (Doc .238V70 (C0NF30C MOof18December "1970 ).

-3-
intensify theexchange ofinformation andexperience inorder '!
toprovide mutual assistance between Member States .This will 'call
tforthecareful identification oftheCommunity interest inthis -work
and "thedefinition oftheways andmeans ofachieving these objectives ,
8. Since 1970 ,theCommission hasheld various consultations
inLuxemburg ,Erlangen andBrussels with experts andusers of ,
forecasts .These contacts have made itpossible todevelop certain
guidelines andundertake certain actions .
9. Knowledge oftheunderlying trends oflabour supply and
demand isstill asnecessary asfever ,and theimpetus todraw up
forecasts isbroadly based ;nevertheless ,recent developments have :•
brought changes in 1emphasis intheMember States and altered
Community priorities . •.
10. Inview of -thegrowing seriousness oftheunemploymeht situation
thework should perhaps empha&ise forecasts ofthedemand for*
manpower onasectoral basis .
11. Furthermore ,therenewal oftheSocial Fund ,decided in
$$71 1and itsdeployment inthecontext ofcurrent economic
developments ,hasgiven priority toV ,: '■ '
forecasts concerning certain industries and •<groups .Infact ,
theeconomic disturbances following theenergy price increases
t
have greatly increased thedifficulties ofemployment policies
atnational andCommunity levels .This will increase inthe ,
future the structural problems which are added tothecurrent
short-term difficulties .These changes .must' beanalysed carefully . <

forecasts availabl e
12.Atthemoment ,theMember States (andalso .theCommission )
publish official short-term estimates (12-18 months )ofemployment
aspart oftheir short-term macro-economic forecasts .Insome
cases ,these forecasts arebroken down byindustry orsector .
Inthemajority oftheMember States ,other short-term forecasts
areavailable from academic ,quasi-public orprivate institutions .
13.Medium-term (5year )employment forecasts disaggregated
byanumber ofindustries ,areavailable inmost countries ,although
they vary considerably intheir scope ansmethodology .These
estimates usually ignore short-term fluctuations and concentrate
onunderlying structural trends .
"\k.Medium andlong-term estimates oflabour supply disaggregated
byage and sexare available inall countries ,based onpopulation .
trends andtaking account ,tovarying degrees ,ofchanges in
thedemand forlabour ,and intheages ofentry andretirement
from the labour market .
Inline with oneoftheprinciple coiicrete recommendations
made , .the Commission has established adossier onthe various
employment forecasts available intheCommunity .
16.Inaddition ,various forecasting work isbeing carried out
inMember States toassess future developments inthe -supply of,
anddemand for ,specific skills andqualifications .TheCommission
hasinitiated research toestablish the extent and scope of
such activities ;the results will beavailable shortly .

-5-
17*Despite the extensive methodological and statistical work
which has already been undertaken intheMember States ,certain
problems exist which inhibit thewider use offorecasts .
18.Firstly ,existing national forecasts ,however similar
they may beinbroad concept ,vary considerably interns of
definitions ,assumptions ,scope andmethodology .Theusefulness
ofsome forecasts iis,therefore ,limited and comparisons between
countries often hazardous .
19-Secondly ,national forecasts should beclosely iinked to
assumptions about general economic trends .Che international
environment plays animportant part here ;but itistaken into
account very differently from onecountry toanother .Itwill ,
therefore ,beimportant toestablish appropriate links with
themedium-term macro-economic forecasts drawn upatCommunity
level (i)$.,ndto^drnw'on the ocaparison ofnational forecasts -
which aremadh by-tlie Group on •Mediao^tern -EsoxLOnic '•Forecasts ..
Current work and future orientations desired bytheCommission
20.TheCommission began certain work concerned with these
forecasts ayear agousing thelimited means atits disposal .
Thefollowmg paragraphs set out :
-themain areas ofcurrent v/ork
-themain lines oftheir future development .
__ •/.
(1)Council Décision of

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(a)work being carried_out
21.For short-term forecasts ,the emphasis isatpresent on :
-therapid collection ofavailable national forecasts concerning
general trends inthedemand andsupply oflabour ;
-thequalitative identification oftrends inparticular industries
orsectors .
Itisintended toorganize periodic contacts with the
national services andboth sides ofindustry inorder toexamine
andaugment this information .- •••._H ••
' * * * .> .
22.Formedium-term forecasts ,current activity centres around
thepreparation ofprojections ofboth supply anddemand for
labour over afive-year period ,disaggregated respectively by
âgeand sex ,andbymdustry . .
Aninitial "trial "projection ,covering about tenbranches ,
will beavailable inthespring of1975 *Itcovers theperiod
upto'1980 and isbased oninformation derived from' national
forecasts "supplied byagroup offorecasting ^experts .
Theresults will beassessed during theyear ,andupdated
periodically .
2?. Alongside this ,theresults oftheresearch commissioned
toestablish aninventory of.forecasts ofdemands .fordifferent .
skills will beanalyzed inorder toascertain whether itis;> •
possible :
-»toforecast trends inthedemand forcertain professions
y ' •ortrades
(i)directly ,or*
(ii)byusing forecasts ofemployment inthevarious industries
inconjunction with data onthe demand fordifferent skills
from the various industries .
./•

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(b)expected developments
2b.Itisplanned toimprove thework inallthese areas
bytaking the following actions :
-'comparing the employment forecasts with themacro-economic
projections oftheCommunity ;
-extending thenumber ofsectors covered bythe forecasts
and investigating some indepth ;
-comparisons and confrontations ofnational results
inorder better toassess individual projections .
*indepth analysis ofthe internal supply ofmanpower
and ofîts component parts .
25.Inthe longer term ,this aim canbepursued inamore
fundamental manner :
-byimproving theforecasts andthemethodologies .;;
-byassessing themeans ofincorporating theeffects oftra&e
andlabour ,movements into thenational forecasting models ,
26.Atthesame time ,theCommission intends toplay anactive
part inthedevelopment ofthe forecasting "infrastructure "., -
Inparticular ,this canbeachieved through the following
activities :
"1■
-the setting upofamutual information system covering ,
for example ,i •.•.
V
th6 "registration ,translation andcirculation ofstudies
and the results6fforecasts ; s
»encouraging thetraining andexchange ofspecialists between
countries ;

-S,
-collaboration with theStatistical Office oftheEECinview ofthe
development ofstatistics ,especially bythe "establishment of
aCommunity nomenclature ofprofessions and trades .

Conclusions
\ *'r •' - ■-;The tasks indicated can be"undertaken without formal
decision oftheCouncil .They rely ,above ail ,onaclose
co-operation between the national services and the services
ofthe Commission .Their cost istherefore limited .
The programme ofwork outlined above canbestarted
immediately .Itsprogress will need tobeexamined periodically
inthe context oftheharmonization ofemployment policies on
Which the Council has decided .
Inorder todevelop this work tothe full ,theCommission
has established agroup ofexperts onemployment forecasts .
This group ,formed mainly from representatives ofthenational
services responsible foremployment forecasts ,will function in
close contact with other groups ,especially theStudy Group on
medium-term economic prospects ,and thegroups responsible for
short-term economic forecasts .TheCommission hopes forthe
collaboration ofMember States inorder toensure that thegroup
canfunction inasefficient awayaspossible .

AHNEX III
PROPOSES FORARESEARCH MD "ACTION PRQGRAI HEPOFTLABOUR "MARKETS r.f.;
Inthepast ,theCouncil and .theStanding Committee on
Eoployoent hove *onseveral occasions ,stressed .„theimportance
they attach toabetter knowledge oftheCommunity 'semployment ,.
market ..The -197^Social Action Programme included this problem
initspriority task-s and thepresent state ofemployment gives ,
increasing importance . _
Far thelast fifteen years considerable progress hasbeen
made s>.saresult ofthepatient work oftheSOEC and the .interest .
andco-operation ofnational statistical institutes (especially ..
through thebi-annual survey ofthework-force ).
Despite this progress ,Community discussions onemployment
have only occasionally been able tomake use offigures concerning
theproblems inquestion .The information available isfragmentary
outofdate orunsuited totheproblems rp.ised -whether itmaybe
the employment ofwomen ,unemployment amongst young people ,levels
ofqualification orsectoral analyses ofemployment .
TheCommittee oftheSocial Fund hashad tostop using
unemployment figures asguidelines because oftheheterogeneous
nature ofthe figures .Short-term economic analyses often come up
against difficulties inseparating structural andshort-term
economic causes ofunemployment ,asubtle distinction ,but one '
which isessential forguiding economic policy .
'Similarly ,Member Strites concerned with comparing .results ■•
orstructures with their partners arehindered bydoubts regarding
thecomparability offigures orthe "content ofthe concepts used .

~}t•-,«■ 'yePfcj' *
TheCommission isanxious tosecthis gapbetween the
statistics J^vaiiabie andthe^aee&s •i<>•£'•tJomnretrfi -tyfpolicy bridged .
Theremedy forthis ,ofcourse ,includes improvement ofbasic """
statistics ,forwhich aplan ofcollaboration between thenational
institutes isbeing drawn up *.But ;it'also --assumes an-effort'.to
break down thebarriers between the main national and community .../it
users :only acomparison oftheir points ofview will .make it
possible toassess more accurately theunderlying institutional
differences ,and toexplain totheCommunity authorities theway -,
inwhich thevarious data collected aretobe'interpreted . .,
The chief weakness inusing these data arises from the
infrequency ofcontacts between thevarious countries concerning
theresults ofnational studies ,and thelack ofcomparative ■
studies based onthis research .The Commission therefore advocates
aseries ofmeasures intended toincrease understanding ofthe
Community 'semployment ,market .These measures would rely on
existing services orinstitutes intheMember States ;they would
aim to .encourage their co-operation ,-promote specialization and
circulate their results selectively andovercome linguistic
barriers .
V • •, . •, »» - J
For this .purpose ,theCommission proposes aprogramme of
priority research projects onthe'labour market intheCommunity .
Itwould consist mainly ofcomparative studies based onexisting
empirical analyses intheMember States .The aim oftheresearch
would betodraw upcomparative surveys ortoanalyse andcompare
national findings ,andalso topromote studies onless explored
aspects ofthe ,-labour .market which might beofgeneral interest .
Both types ofresearch should beofan-empirical nature ,and
exclude purely theoretical studies .Emphasis should .beput ,in
the first fewyears ,oncomparative studies ,which arerare at
present ,despite their great political interest atnational and
Community levels .

| . •it-.f •;•=•• •: VA*-.
Tohelp theCommission inthemanagement of'this programme ,
aresearch -Thanagemeiit Committed shtmld besetup..Itwould be •
made upofpersons intheMember States experienced inthe
management ofsuch studies ,andchosen particularly from leaders
ofnational services 'and research institutes . f
The tasks ofthe Committee would be :
•todevelop precise guidelines fortheresearch programme ;
-toidentify specific areas ofCommunity interest > •
-toappraise individual research projects ,proposals andresults .
Theprogramme would ,be .financed from thenormal Commission
budget under aseparate heading toidentify theparticular method
ofmanagement and control suggested .
Afirst outline ofareas'suggested fortheprogramme is"
set out inthe 'Annex tothis document . '' '
'The .Commission asks theCouncil :: -,-y- •:
-totake note ofthis programme ;
-toagiree -to .thetransfer ofcredits forthi§purpose from
article .?98toarticle 3050.' .

PROPOSED RESEARCH PROGRAMME ONEMPLOYMENT
– "■ .■III'Ίΐ' ■ ■■■ –...
To"beestablished bycommonAgreement "betweentheCouncilandthe
Commission .
1..Thecurrentemployment situation anditsfuturedevelopment callfor
anintensification oftheeffortsbeingmadetoincreasetheunderstanding
ofthelabourmarketanditstendencies . •
2.Inthespirit'ofarticle118theseeffortsmustbemade
withclosecooperation betweentheservices oftheCommission andthe...
services ofthememberStatesinboththeselection ofthepriority
themesandthecarrying outitselfofthestudies.
3.Theresearch programme tobecarriedoutinthiscontextwillbe
oriented aroundthethemesdefinedbelow.. I.twill,largelyconcern
comparative studiesbasedonexisting ,empirical analyses inthe>.Member
States.■Theaimoftheresearch willbetodrawupcomparative surveys
ortoanalyseandcomparenational findings,andalsdtopromotestudies
onlessexplored aspectsofthelabourmarketwhichmightbeofgeneral
interest .Bothtypesofresearch shouldbeofanempirical nature,and
excludepurelytheoritical studies'.Emphasiswillbeput,inthefirst
fewyears,oncomparative studies,whicharerareatpresent,despitetheir
greatpolitical interestatnational andCommunity levels.
4.TohelptheCommission inthemanagement ofthisprogramme ,a
research management Committee willbesetup.Itwillbemadeupof
personsintheMemberStatesexperienced inthemanegement ofsuchstudies,
andchosenparticularly fromleadersofnationalservices andresearch
institutes .
ThetasksûftheCommittee willbe:
-todeveloppreciseguidelines fortheresearch programme ;
-toidentifyspecificareasofCommunity interest }
-toappraiseindividual researchprojects ,proposals andresults.

-5-
5. These measures will rely onexisting services orinstitutes mthe
Member States ;they will ?imtoencourage their co-oper?>tion .promote
specializ?tion andcirculate their results selectively >-ndovercome
linguistic barriers .
6. Theprogramme will befinpnced from thenormal .Commission budget
under asepprpte heading toidentify theparticular method ofmanagement
andcontrol suggested . •
T305ES OPTHE HESSAP.CH PROGRAMME
Itvdll betheresponsibility oftheservices oftheCommission in
consultation with themanagement group ,«?ndonthebssis oftherelevant
work which isevfilpble onanational level toformulate the lines to
befollowed .
1.Economic pndlabour mprket analysis ofunemployment
Cyclxcpl ,structural ,frictionnl ,se»son?l unemployment
-studies pnd pssessments of :
"-practic»l définitions
-me^surements used forepch concept
-uses foreconomic pndsocisl polioy purpos^s .
Problems cfunemployment
Identification ofdifferent groups interms of :
-afoe
-sex
-level ofqu^-lificption
andother relevant characteristics ,forthedevelopment of
appropriée policies .
-..A "

-€-
Thisvjouldcover,forexample,theirrespective
-frequency
-duration
-susceptibility tounemployment ,
3.Anelysis ofemployment structures
Theassessment ofemployment structures ,inparticular ther=tesof
employment activity inrelation tothesectoralstructure and
geographical dispersion ofemployment .
4.Mobility inthelabourmsrket •
Theextentofmobility whichis1
-occupational ' '
-industrial/sectoral ■
-geographical
-betweenfirms,mobility .
5.Treimng andemployment
Theextentand'typeoftraining andre-training inthelabour .market,
enditsimpactinrelation tothedemandfordifferent levelsandtypes
ofskills. ■■ ' ■
6.Studiesinrelationtoemployment forecasting
Studies onforec^sis cfemployaient vzitïiindifférent
branches ofactivity ,orwithindifferent skillgroups,inorderto
assistdirectly intheworkonEmployment Forecasts ,