Opinion of the European Committee of the Regions – Demographic change: proposals on measuring and tackling its negative effects in the EU regions

(2020/C 440/07)

Rapporteur: János Ádám KARÁCSONY (HU/EPP) Member of Tahitótfalu local government

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

THE EUROPEAN COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS

General comments

1. considers that demographic change is one of the biggest challenges facing European regions, cities and rural population centres, and points out that some of the driving factors behind it are: an ageing population, low fertility and birth rates and the worsening unequal distribution of the population;

2. recalls the guidance of the Strategic Agenda 2019-2024 endorsed by the European Council regarding the European model for the future which also requires addressing the demographic challenges;

3. welcomes the initiative of the European Commission to ask the Vice President of the Commission, Dubravka Šuica, to analyse the impact of demographic change on different groups in society and on areas and regions disproportionately affected in Europe and to put forward measures to address these challenges, including brain drain, better reconciling work and family life, the future child guarantee, the Green Paper on ageing and a long-term vision for rural areas, bearing in mind the need for gender mainstreaming in all these measures;

4. intends to develop the role of adult or elderly people as resources for the community, not just recipients of care, by encouraging them to become active in social, civil, economic and cultural life and fostering the establishment of paths to independence and wellbeing in their day-to-day lives;

5. strongly endorses the European Commission report on the impact of demographic change, which takes an approach combining the digital transition, the green economy and the demographic challenge — a comprehensive approach which is crucial for delivering fair, sustainable solutions for all generations, taking care to ensure that no one is left behind, as called for by the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals;

6. welcomes the initiative of the Croatian Council Presidency to put demographic change as a key priority and welcomes the referral that the CoR has received on this matter;

7. welcomes the initiative of the European Parliament to come forward with a report of the demographic challenges in the response to the Communication of the Commission;

8. recalls the Committee of the Regions’ contribution to the Covenant on Demographic Change, based on the findings of the thematic network on innovation for age-friendly environments which brings together local, regional and national authorities working to support active, healthy ageing in response to the demographic challenge, with the support of the WHO;

9. points out that at international level synergies with the United Nations are needed in order to revise the 2002 Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing and hold discussions with the Working Group on Ageing, with a view to safeguarding the human rights of elderly people more effectively. At global level, it is important to work with the World Health Organization on the Decade of Healthy Ageing;

Main demographic trends and challenges

10. draws attention to the significantly different growth trends of the population across EU Member States and regions that urgently need to be tackled with different measures among the EU27;

11. underlines that, at regional level, highly negative demographic trends have been observed in recent years across large parts of Europe. In most of these areas, ‘islands’ of demographic growth can be observed around capital and metropolitan cities ( 1 )

12. refers to the finding that regions that lose population tend to be rural, already sparsely populated and remote. Declining industrial areas and various peripheral towns are also affected by depopulation trends ( 2 )

13. highlights that the decreasing number of working-age people and the increasing number of older people compound the impact on old-age dependency ratios. This ratio is projected to rise from 29,3 % in 2016 to 52,3 % by 2080 within the EU (an increase of 23,0 percentage points) ( 3 )

14. recognises that, contrary to the growing global population, the pace of population growth within the EU has slowed down significantly. The year 2015 has witnessed the first natural population decline in the EU-28, with more deaths than births;

15. highlights a steady increase of the dependency ratio, whereby according to Eurostat population figures, in 1960 there were on average three young people (aged 0-14) for every elderly person (aged 65 or over), 100 years later, in 2060, there are projected to be two elderly for every young person;

16. underlines that due to the delay in the childbearing age of women, the desired childbirth postponed to a later age, resulting in the planned ( 4 ) number of children — typically 2-3 children ( 5 ) — not being met, resulting in a difference between the actual and the desired number of children (fertility gap). As long as there is a fertility gap in the EU Member States, there is a primary role to reduce the fertility gap, migration can only occur thereafter. Every effort must be made to encourage and incentivise childbearing;

17. stresses that the loss of young people in regions characterised by outward migration and against a backdrop of declining birth rates presents an extraordinary disadvantage for smaller municipalities in terms of maintaining essential public services and boosting economic and productive activity in these areas, which are essential factors in retaining and attracting the population in the territory and curbing the phenomenon of rural depopulation that affects the EU Member States;

18. refers to recent studies ( 6 ) by the CoR that particularly highlight the territorial dimension of the demographic challenge;

19. in line with its own opinion on brain drain, emphasises that the free movement of individuals and workers forms the basis of the internal market and is one of the main freedoms recognised in the EU Treaties;

The need for coherent policy response at all levels of governance

20. draws attention to its own opinion on ‘The EU response to the demographic challenge’ (2016), which stipulates that many European policies can contribute to addressing the demographic challenge without providing specific measures to support the areas affected by these challenges. This affects transport, the information society, employment and social policy, culture, the environment and climate, as well as businesses; reiterates its call for an overarching European strategy on demographic change and underlines that addressing these challenges will require a comprehensive approach from a wide range of policy fields to help to reverse (pro-active) or mitigate (reactive) the effects of demographic change, such as:

Pro-active policy options:

— since one of the determinants of population is birth rate, creating the right conditions that would make it easier for people who want to have children to have more and earlier, while considering that, according to the ‘Demographic outlook for the European Union’ (2017) (7), policies to alter future demographics are limited and take time to have an impact, the focus should be about adapting and smoothing the transition to an older EU, while supporting young people in the transition to adult life and families to increase the fertility rates in the affected regions;

— increasing the attractiveness of regions so that they provide young people with opportunities for study, innovation and stable and high-quality employment, through dedicated investment in, inter alia, infrastructures, culture and connectivity;

— developing dedicated incentives schemes to attract young people to settle in these regions;

— making it economically viable for young people to establish large families;

— developing the concept of the ‘economy of wellbeing’ in the EU, whereby increasing people’s, and therefore families’, wellbeing (in terms of education, health, childcare, work-life balance, housing, mobility of transport, connectivity and culture) contributes to a virtuous economic cycle, helping sustain long-term investments into wellbeing. This can improve the attractiveness of regions and towns as places to live and to start a family, based on the above factors and not only on the basis of economic growth;

— promoting and implementing a comprehensive, integrated policy designed to study and support families as they freely perform their social roles;

— flagging up the specific need, in an inclusive society, to prepare effective responses to the needs of people with disabilities as they get older;

Reactive options:

— improving labour market participation, especially for women, through increased investment in better work-life balance, social and family-friendly infrastructure and more gender equality;

— reducing the health and caring costs of an ageing society by encouraging active and healthy ageing, investing in new forms of independent living (new concepts of housing) and promoting the social economy;

— increasing planning of public investment through a demography check of public investment, developing methodologies and technical tools that make it easier to analyse the demographic impact of the various policies;

— lowering the drop-out rate of young people, increasing the skills base by investing in education and promoting training tailored to demand and potentialities in each region, re-skilling and flexibility of the workforce;

— giving special attention to the public service provision such as health care, education and culture onto small- and mid-size cities in the regions and use digital solutions for reaching out to all places;

— creating a functioning and consensual legal framework at European level, which will facilitate integration of non-EU citizens into the European labour market and society as a part of a comprehensive strategy to address demographic change;

— providing types of dwellings suitable for mixed social housing conducive to inter-generational cohabitation, synergies and reciprocity with various forms of inclusive sharing;

— promoting measures intended to raise quality of life and combat loneliness and isolation among elderly people, particularly but not only during pandemics;

— promoting situations in which various generations can form social ties, thus fostering the wellbeing of society as a whole;

Demography and the ongoing discussion on the Multiannual Financial Framework

21. there is a need for allocating more European funds in the future entitled to combat the phenomenon brain drain;

22. particularly highlights, in the context of the ongoing negotiation about the Structural Funds regulations, that the reference to demographic change should be strengthened as suggested by the European Parliament, and the application of these funds should be more flexible in the areas and regions that have been disproportionately affected by this phenomenon so that they can be used jointly in the same project, so that advance payments can be made available and so that they can complement the financial instruments;

23. recalls that its own opinion on the European Regional Development Fund and Cohesion Fund (2018) states that the objectives of the European Regional Development Fund and Cohesion Fund (ERDF) include that of supporting urban and rural areas with geographical or demographic handicaps. It also includes the provision of additional EU financial support for projects that promote environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economic development in the regions concerned;

24. recalls, in this regard, the proposal by the Committee of the Regions and the European Parliament that particular support be given to NUTS level 3 areas or clusters of local administrative units with a population density of below 12,5 inhabitants per km 2 for sparsely populated areas or below 8 inhabitants per km 2 for very sparsely populated areas, or with an average population decrease of more than 1 % between 2007 and 2017, which should be subject to specific regional and national plans to enhance attractiveness, increase business investment and boost the accessibility of digital and public services, including a fund in the Structural Fund cooperation agreement;

25. reiterates the CoR’s and EP’s position on support for national plans to support regional and local areas facing continuous demographic decline and needing support, including financial support from the ESIF, to increase attractiveness, increase business investment and improve accessibility of digital and public services. These national and regional plans must be reflected in the new EU strategy for demographic change;

Demography aspects in key EU policies

26. stresses the demographic dimension of urbanisation, as the European Union is also confronted with growing urbanisation, and emphasises the relevance of strongly addressing the demographic challenges in implementing the Urban Agenda for the European Union and in the context of the renewal of the Leipzig Charter;

27. supports the position of the European Parliament which reflected the Committee of the Regions’ proposals on helping sparsely populated regions, allocating at least 5 % of the ERDF resources available at national level under the Investment for jobs and growth goal to integrated territorial development in non-urban areas with natural, geographic or demographic handicaps or disadvantages or which have difficulty accessing basic services. Out of this amount, at least 17,5 % shall be allocated to rural areas ‘and communities taking into account provisions of a Smart Villages Pact to develop projects such as smart villages’ ( 8 ) , by making these areas more attractive and encouraging repopulation;

28. emphasises the role of the Youth Guarantee and Your First EURES Job, which helps young people find a job. The direct importance of the Youth Guarantee in democracy and indirectly in demography is also evident from the previous results of the 2014-2020 period: it helped to improve the lives of millions of young Europeans;

29. looks forward to the European Commission’s proposals for a future Child Guarantee to help children at risk of poverty and social exclusion, by promoting investments that ensure that children enjoy the fundamental right to grow and flourish in a child-friendly and family-friendly environment, prioritising measures to improve overall family incomes and support parents, and that they have access to free and high-quality healthcare, education, childcare, decent housing and adequate nutrition; believes that family policies should not be regarded as a cost for the public budget, but rather as an investment in a strategic asset for society;

30. considers that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP 2014-2020), which deals with rural development, helps to tackle demographic challenges. During the 2021-2027 period, the CAP should therefore remain a strong EU policy. Vibrant rural areas, young farmers and family-based farms demonstrating good practices should play a key role in tackling climate change, protecting the environment and preserving landscapes and biodiversity and preventing depopulation in rural areas;

31. although it has a very limited scope of action, the European Commission should intervene in the land market legislation in order to: stimulate the use of the possibilities under RD to support the new actions to foster land mobility (land banks, farmland matching initiatives and other initiatives promoted at local level to encourage the access to land by new entrants); broaden the scope of the support actions to new farm business models (in particular innovative types of partnerships among farmers) and local organisations, which are able to support young farmers and new entrants in land obtaining; encourage more active national policies through EU recommendations on access to land with best practices (taking into account established best practices);

32. considers that the Member States must give firm support to policies fostering women’s involvement and encourage participation in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT), in Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics (STEAM) and the rural economy as a precondition for balancing the population pyramid in areas suffering, or at risk of, depopulation;

33. asks the European Commission and Member States to ensure the necessary coordination between the EU Cohesion policy and the Common Agricultural Policy in order to ensure that the rural areas can also implement Smart Villages projects through an integrated approach (ITI, CLLD or LEADER);

34. reiterates the concept expressed in its Opinion on Active and healthy ageing (2019) that ‘the challenges of demographic change will require research and an active European industry in order to modernise, design and produce new innovative solutions for an ageing population, be they everyday products, infrastructure, technology or software’, particularly the development of telemedicine to ensure high standards of specialised treatment, especially in rural or sparsely populated areas; and ‘sees this as an opportunity for the EU to position itself as a market leader in the Silver Economy, creating local jobs, generating wealth and exporting ground-breaking innovations abroad’. A family-friendly environment and intergenerational solidarity strengthens the above statement, and local and regional authorities play a key role to this end in creating conditions that promote and ensure healthy ageing. To achieve this, both specific calls on this subject and better coordination of the various financial resources available are required;

35. stresses the key role that information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the intelligent environment can play in improving the living conditions in those areas most affected by demographic challenges. As a result, the Committee calls on the EU to address the digital divide that affects many areas by using SMART solutions and to that end making use of EU tools and programmes, such as structural and investment funds and the Next Generation EU programme, with a view to ensuring high-quality digital connectivity for everyone;

36. referring to the digital divide, highlights smart solutions in the field of elderly care and demand-responsive transport (DRT), as well as the need to plan for the provision of mobile phone coverage on minor local roads. Similarly, considers it crucially important for the provision of mobile telephony to be included under the universal telecommunications service, especially in sparsely populated rural population centres and their local roads, which make life easier especially for the elderly and parents with young children. All of these have a distinct impact on population retention;

37. organise training programmes on and support for the use of digital technologies to close the digital gap for elderly people, and set up change management programmes for social service managers in municipal administrations to assist with the digital transformation of services to individuals;

38. agrees that the Commission’s various actions proposed in its communication for 2014-2020 adopted in September 2017 (‘Boosting Growth and Cohesion in EU Border Regions’) can help reduce the complexity, length and costs of cross-border interaction and promotes the pooling of services along internal borders. The Commission emphasises that ‘investments to improve living conditions will be significant: joint environmental actions and joint measures to mitigate climate change effects will lead to greater protection of border populations’ ( 9 )

39. reaffirms the observation expressed in its own opinion on the Work-life balance for parents and carers (2017), that ‘current demographic trends make it imperative to rethink gender roles and promote more flexible and equal working arrangements’. With this in mind, the EU legal framework in the area of policies with the aim to support the reconciliation of work and family life and gender equality is inextricably linked to economy, demography, employment and regional aspects. With this in mind, the Committee welcomes the European Commission’s Gender Equality Strategy;

40. draws attention to its own opinions on Mobility in geographically and demographically challenged regions (2014) and on The EU response to the demographic challenge (2016). They cover areas such as ensuring mobility of transport policies and set out further specific measures; these include innovative approaches such as ‘transport on demand’ to improve connectivity in and between all regions the CoR also underlines that new approaches to funding transport in challenged regions are needed;

41. points out that the high unemployment rate does not meet the requirements of the labour market. Therefore, it is necessary to organise vocational trainings or extension courses for unemployed persons who are unable to fit in or reintegrate into the labour market. Public authorities, regional and local institutions and a joint cooperation employment services institutes should be involved;

42. considers it necessary to introduce a positive message about rural areas into a range of policies in order to tackle the depopulation affecting the countryside, in such a way as to project a positive image of rural areas, highlighting their wealth of positive aspects and values;

43. it is important to highlight that fathers participate more in childcare and family-life, children enjoy higher cognitive and emotional outcomes and physical health. Those who engage more with their children tend to report greater life satisfaction and better physical and mental health. In 2015 three-quarters of OECD countries provided at least a few days of paid leave that can be used only by the father, either through paid father-specific parental leave. Parental leave may also help reduce discrimination against women in the workplace;

44. recalls the Sustainable Development Goals and, in particular, a dedicated goal for urban development, SDG 11, which calls for ‘making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable’. Supports those projects directed to local authorities, cities and regions that are actively contributing to achieve the SDG 11;

45. takes into account the European Green Deal, which is an important response to the environmental, demographic, economic and social challenges. A sustainable growth strategy is essential for transforming the EU into a fair, prosperous and inclusive society and there needs to be a rethink of policies for clean energy in the economy, industry and the consumption, transport, food and agriculture and construction as well as taxation and some aspects of social and overall family support issues;

46. stresses that having children should not be an obstacle to professional ambition and should not lead to impoverishment or loss of purchasing power, especially in the case of large families and single-parent families. Family planning is for the long-term, therefore it is important to have a stable and proactive policy, which includes reconciling work-life balance and the involvement of fathers in family life. Swift and flexible return to labour market for mothers after maternity leave should be facilitated;

47. points out that part of the jobs that will be needed in the future do not currently exist: consequently, training must be provided for our citizens (of all ages and sectors) in skills that help them access employment. Training policy planning should pay special attention to people living in areas with a lower population density or widely dispersed populations to facilitate their access to training;

48. points out the importance of the unpaid work mainly done by women by supporting families and compensating the lack of public social infrastructure. Unpaid work is mostly unpaid care and domestic work, which are respectively estimated at 10 and 39 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in the world;

Demography and Democracy

49. considers that emerging issues such as the transformation of society and population distribution give rise to political responses, which may lead to a polarisation in the democratic system;

50. should draw special attention to young people who are or may become parents. The average youth unemployment rate in EU Member States remains higher than that of the working population in general. Young people are rather affected by precarious working conditions. Based on researches access to predictable income and housing for young people should be placed in the foreground in which one of the consequences is to give them the security they need to start a family;

51. considers that the Trans-European Transport Networks which, according to Regulation (EU) No 1316/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council ( 10 ) , will continue to be financed by the Cohesion Fund during the 2021-2027 programming period, should — as well as loosening existing bottlenecks in the network — prioritise investment in sustainable transport networks and boost public services in rural areas, especially those that are sparsely populated or have widely dispersed populations and with ageing populations, in order to facilitate rural-urban interconnectivity, promote rural development and narrow the digital divide;

52. alerts therefore on the development of a ‘geography of discontent’ that is taking place in many EU regions and countries where people feel left behind, which is often closely related to demographic decline. Consequently, the access to basic public services should be guaranteed to the rural and the sparsely populated areas;

53. sees the need to address this development to strengthen our democratic system by facilitating the intergenerational dialogue and actively engaging the elected politicians at the local and regional levels, which are closest to the citizens;

54. therefore, sees the need to discuss, at the future Conference on the Future of Europe, the link between Democracy and Demography and suggests putting forward clearly its positions on this topic for the conference, paying particular attention to young people’s representation. The Conference should address the so-called ‘geography of discontent’, linked to the level of success of EU policies and their direct and indirect impact on different EU regions and their demography; further suggests that, in this context, the conference could also address the question, how the term ‘regions with severe and permanent demographic handicaps’, that is mentioned in Article 174 of the TFEU, should be defined. Such broader reflection is also relevant within the context of the attainment of the SDGs;

A plea for active subsidiarity and better regulation

55. underlines that many of the necessary policy responses fall within the responsibility of local and regional authorities in the EU and therefore underlines the need for a strong focus on partnership and multi-level governance in finding adequate solutions;

56. at the same time underlines the importance for the CoR to have a significant participation throughout the Conference on the Future of Europe, reflecting the fact that there are more than one million elected local and regional representatives in the EU;

57. pleads to use the concept of ‘active subsidiarity’ developed by the Task Force on Subsidiarity to find workable solutions for addressing demographic change by respecting the division of powers in a direct dialogue with cities and regions;

58. is well placed to support this process by providing the platform for consultation and dialogue with the European Commission to find adequate solutions;

59. highlights the importance of using the instrument of territorial impact assessment (TIA) to further design EU policies that are affecting the demographic change and refers to its own recent TIA exercise, carried out in cooperation with the ESPON programme ( 11 )

60. suggests working closely together with the European Commission in view of the future policy documents such as the Green Paper on Ageing or the long term strategy for rural areas in carrying out a joint consultation to feed into these reports;

Monitoring progress to address the demographic challenge

61. sees the need for a regular monitoring of the demographic challenge by making a link between the European Semester and demographic change and by closely associating this question with the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals;

62. underlines the need for regular EU statistics, reflecting not only national but also regional developments, in order to provide policy makers with a clear picture of regional disparities. Further suggests the need for an annual report on the state of play of the demographic challenge in the EU cities and regions, to which the Committee could contribute;

63. proposes to carry out a regular political dialogue between the European Commission and the EU cities and regions prior to the Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy on the state of play of the demographic challenge; suggests a close collaboration between the Commission and the CoR in organising this process;

The next steps

64. suggests to the Croatian Council Presidency to put forward Council conclusions on the findings of the stock-taking exercise of the Commission and suggests a broad debate on the demographic challenge in different council formations;

65. invites the incoming German, Portuguese and Slovenian Presidencies to continue these efforts by focussing in particular on the link between demographic change and the improvement of living conditions everywhere;

66. underlines the importance of citizens’ participation and encourages leading local stakeholders to strengthen regional horizontal policies, thereby increasing awareness of demographic change within the local community to reinforce the acknowledgement of more citizen-centred measures; suggests to also widely discuss the demographic challenges in dialogues with the citizens;

67. considers that promotion of private-public cooperation must be structured in such a way that all actors in areas at risk of depopulation or already depopulated can work together in a coordinated way, pooling and strengthening projects that are based on their experience, triggering innovation and promoting a more dynamic economy;

68. considers that it is crucial to highlight our regions’ rich natural, historical, artistic and cultural heritage in order to increase people’s attachment to their villages and towns, thus supporting, preserving, maintaining and protecting local, native and small communities, linguistic-cultural subregions with a view to strengthen the ability of rural areas to retain local population and revitalise rural areas;

69. offers the European Commission, the other EU institutions and other regional and international institutions, such as the Union for the Mediterranean and the United Nations, a close cooperation in developing a comprehensive strategy to address the demographic challenge;

70. recalls that, since 1994, the International Day of Families has been held in the United Nations each year on 15 May. Therefore, proposes that the second Sunday of May could be the European Day of Families.

Brussels, 14 October 2020. The President of the European Committee of the Regions Apostolos TZITZIKOSTAS

(1) CoR study on ‘The impact of demographic change on European regions’, Brussels 2016.

(2) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2019/637955/EPRS_IDA(2019)637955_EN.pdf

(3) Source: People in the EU — population projections (Eurostat, 2017)

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_projections_in_the_EU#Age_dependency_ratios

(4) OECD, Family Database, Fertility Indicators: SF2.2 Ideal and actual number of children. http://www.oecd.org/els/family/SF_2_2-Ideal-actual-number-children.pdf

(5) A total fertility rate of around 2,1 live births per woman is considered to be the replacement level in developed countries: in other words, the average number of live births per woman required to keep the population size (Source: Eurostat, Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Fertility_statistics#Total_fertility_rate_and_age_of_women_at_birth_of_first_child).

(6) CoR study on ‘The impact of demographic change on European regions’ and the European Regional Social Scoreboard.

(7) Demographic outlook for the European Union (2017) (EPRS — European Parliamentary Research Service & EUI — European University). http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/614646/EPRS_IDA(2017)614646_EN.pdf

(8) A8-0094/2019, Cozzolino.

(9) https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/information/publications/communications/2017/boosting-growth-and-cohesion-in-eu-border-regions

(10) Regulation (EU) No 1316/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 establishing the Connecting Europe Facility, amending Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 and repealing Regulations (EC) No 680/2007 and (EC) No 67/2010 (OJ L 348, 20.12.2013, p. 129).

(11) https://cor.europa.eu/en/our-work/Pages/Territorial-Impact-Assessment.aspx