ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(79)142
Vol.1979/0067

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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(79)142 final .
Brussels .20March 1979 .
ENERGY SITUATION INTHE COMMUNITY AND INTHE WORDL
(Communication from theCommission totheCouncil )
.r i
c.
COM (79)1^2 final

Er.'ESGY SITUATION INTHE:COMMUNITY ANDINTHEWORLD
V.'orribrcjr.d
1.Theapparentglutinworldoilsupplies andtheslackness oftheoilmarket
reportedlastyearhavecorr.etoanabruptandgenerally unforeseen end.
EventsinIranandtheiractual,andpossible future,effects onMiddle
Easternoilproduction andexportshavedominated theenergysceneinthelast
sixmor.ths.Futuredevelopments inIranremainunclear,andalthough thenew
Government wantsoilexportstoberesumed,therecannotyetbeanycertainty
abouteitherthetimingortheQuantities involved (*).
2.TheIraniansituation hasthrownintorelieftheroleofSaudiArabiaasthe
suir.oproducer .TheabilityofSaudiArabiaandsomeotherGulfstatesto
increase production hasdiminished ,bysome3mb/d,theimpactoftheIranian
exportshortfall ofupto6mb/d.However,theremustbedoubtsabouttheir
willingness andabilitytoproduceattheseincreased levelsforaprolonged
period.
3.Inthemeantime,theverysmallquantities ofcrudeoilandproducts tradedon
thespotmarkethavereceived sharplyincreased prices,which,although
unrepresentative ,havebeenwellpublicised .Although mostoilcontinues to
besoldatstandard pricesthereismounting pressure within OPECtoadjustto
thenewsituation byanupwardsrevision ofthephasedpriceincreases
onno-nced lastDecember.Inrespectof"incremental "production ,SaudiArabia
hasalreadyadvanced theapplication oftheforthquarter'spriceriseandsome
Gulfproducers haveincreased pricesby7%beyondtheplannedlevelforall
theirlightcrudeproduction .Othersmayfollow.OPECcanbeexpectedto
trytocoordinate withinacoherentstrategy theseadhocmovesbyindividual
r.er.bers,atitsmeetingplannedfor26March..Afurthergeneralpricerise
nowwoulddiminish theprospects forworldeconomic recovery.
(*)In1978Iransupplied about ofworldoilconsumption (outsidethe
Communist countries )andabout16%ofCommunity supplies.

.2.
4.The-•!~-;d-'ctedcr.geristhathighoilstockdrawdowninconsuming countries
mighthavesc-riousimplications fornextwinter'ssupplysituation unlessthe
worldproduction patternisrestoredtoenablerestocking totakeplacethis
suT.rr.er.
5.Butbeyondthat,thepolitically unsettling effectofIranianeventsonother
partsoftheMiddleEastcallsfortheutmostprudence intheexamination and
formulation offutureoilandenergysupplystrategies .Inanyevent,on
thebasisof"normal"Iranianproduction ,itremainsprobablethatin1990
0?=Cproduction couldbewellshortofexpectedworldrequirements ^Newoil;in
non-CPEC countries uillnotchangethisgeneral'picture.
6.Forexample,itisunlikelythatChinacanmakeamajorcontribution tonewwor.ld
oilsupplies intheshorterterm,andtheUSSRnayhavedifficulty inopening
upitsundoubted resources quickly enoughtomaintain theCo^econoilsupply
balance.Eventhesubstantial newsupplies fromMexicoandotherpartsofthe'"
American continent areunlikely tobelargeenoughtohaveamajorimpact.
I
7.Inspiteofadeclineineconomic growthintheOECDareafromits1977levels,
oilconsumption intheCommunity ,theUSAandjapan(85%oftheOECDtotal)
increased by1.7%in1978,mainlyingasoline andheatingoil.Oil
ccn->w-,otioninthethreeareasisexpectedtogrowbyabout2%in1979,butthe
requirement forOPECimportswillnotincreaseoverall,owingmainlytoNorth
Seaoilproduction .Oilproduction intheUSA>havingincreased slightly in
'.978,willprcbobly almoststabilize in1979.Between nowand1990,theUSA's
oilimportscouldalmostdouble,whileJapan'scouldincrease by40%.
8.Althoughitistooearlytojudgetheeffectoftherecentenergylegislation
intheUSA,themeasures aredesignedtosave3mb/dinoilimportsby1985.
However,increased consumption in1979isexpectedtooutweighslightly
increased domestic production ,leadingtorenewedgrowthinoilimports.This
couldhaveaseriouseffectontheUSeconomyandontheworldoilmarket
unlessthereisachangethroughfurtherandmorerigorouslegislation on
conservation andoilprices.Fluctuations oftheUSdollarin1978caused
uncertainty inworldtradeandrenewedconcernamongstoilproducers aboutthe
international purchasing poweroftheiroilrevenues.
/

9.CUjrc:r?ctsregainofprimeconcernbecauseoilisstilltheworld's
fcaljr.cir.2 "fuel,andbecausetheprospects forarapidandmassiveswitchto
othersourcesarenotgood.IntheUSA,therearedifficulties overthe
veryambitious coalprogramme,andworldtradeincoalwillremainrelatively
small.InWesternEurope,nuclearprogrammes haveencountered furtherdelays
against abackground ofcontinuing publicdisquiet.
Worldbac'-"3r&'jnd:Conclusions
10.Political instability andtensionhaveincreased inkeyareasofthe
wcrld.Energysupplies haveasaresultbecomelesssecure,andinfuture
couldbeincreasingly affected bypolitical factors.Thedifficulties weare
experiencing new,eveniftheyareonlytemporary,aretypicalofmanywhich
wemaybefacinginthecomingyears,andforeshadow thefeatures oftheenergy
situation whichhaspreviously beenforecastforthemidorlate1980s.
Ccf"jntv situation *
11.Ererevconsumption regained the1973levelforthefirsttimelastyear,growing
by2.2%,havingslightly declined in1977.Thiswasassociated witheconomic
growthof2.£%,givinganenergy/growthratioof+0.82,compared withthe
negativeratioof1977.Economic growththisyearisforecast tobe3.4%,
withenergyconsumption growingat2.9%.Onthisbasis,theenergy/GOPratio
wouldbe0.85.Althoughitmayseemthatweareclosetoachieving thetarget
ratioof0.8for1985,itispremature todrawfirmconclusions fromafigure
foronyparticular year.Acleartrendhasyettobeestablished buttheneed
forstrongenergysavingpolicies remainsvital.
12.Oilconsumption increased ataboutthesamerateastotalenergyconsumption in
1972andshouldincrease byafurther 2%during1979.Thiswasandwillbe
morethancoveredbyincreased domestic production ;netimportswillcontinue
theirdownward pathin.1979,butwillstillaccountfor82%ofsupplies,
compared with96%in1976.Naturalgasproduction declined in1978butis
expectedtoincreaseslightly in1979.Totalgasconsumption willincrease by
7%in1979.Importswillaccountformostofthisincrease,andwilltakea
growingshareintheyearstocome.
*Annexedisamoredetailed document describing theenergysituation inthe
Community in1978andtheprospects for1979.*

«3.Coolccnsumptionshowedamodestincrease in1973,mainlyintheelectricity
sector,but33%ofpowerstationcoalisconsumed inonlytwoMemberStates.
Ther.arketsintheironandsteelandgeneralindustrial sectorscontinue to
beslack.Community coalproduction stagnated in1978at174mtoe.The
declineintheUSdollarfurtheraddedtothecompetitive advantage ofthird
countryimports,although thequantity imported didnotchangegreatly.
Excessive coalstocksintheUKandGermanycontinuetobeafinancial burden.
Thedangerremainsthat,throughunderinvestment ,theCommunity'sabilitynot
onlytoproducebutmoreimportant toconsumecoalwillcontinuetobe
inadequate .Littlechangeisexpected onthe1978picturein1979.
14.Electricity consumption increased by4.2%in1973compared with3.2%in1977;
anevenhigherincreaseisexpected in1979.Itisvitalthatfuture
increases inelectricity demandbemetbyprimaryinputotherthanoil.
Nevertheless ,22GWeofoil-fired capacity arestillunderconstruction ,
ccrpared with7GWeofcoal.Delayscontinuetooccurinthenuclear programme
andcapacity in19S5isnowexpectedtobeonly75-80GWe.In1979,about10%
ofelectricity production willbenuclear.
15.Importedoilin1973accounted for50%oftotalCommunity energyconsumption ,
aboutthesameshareasin1977,andisforecast at47%for1979,40%for1985
arid3S%for1990.Totalenergyimportdependence oftheCommunity fellfrom
56%in1977to55%in1978andisforecast atabout53%for1979,andat48-53%
for'935andfor1990.Thesefigures showthat"thereremainsanunacceptably
highdegreeofexposuretoexternal events,inspiteoftheprogress madesince
1973,atatimeofincreasing uncertainty aboutworldenergysupplies.
Policyirolications fortheCommunity
16.Theabovedescription cftheworldandCommunity situation showsthatwhereas
thereisnoimmediate crisis,theneedtoimplement emergency oilmeasures
cannotbeexcluded,and'thatwemustasacommunity bereadyforthisinan
efficient andresponsible way.Thiswillcallformaximumcooperation between
theCommission ,national governments ,the'oilcompanies andinternational
.organizations . '' .

17.Shortofanoilemergency,wearestillinasituation wherethe
Community couldlose6%ofitstotalsupplyoverthefirsthalfof
1979,andfinditselfinabadposition onoilstocks.Hencetheneedto
limitoilconsumption immediately ,asagreedattherecentmeetingof
theEuropean Council,asameansofreducing ourdependance onimports.
18.TheEuropean Councilconclusions reaffirmiearlier Commission assessments
oftheCommunity's' longertermenergyprospects andpolicypriorities .
Depending oneventsintheMiddleEastinthecomingmonths,itmaybe
thatthetime-scale formanaging theenergytransition hasbeenconsi­
derablyshortened .Ourexistingpriorities ofenergysaving,reduction
ofoilconsumption ,throughgreateruseofcoalandnuclear,reduction
ofimportdependence ,improvedsecurity ofsupplybyestablishment ofim­
provedrelations withproducing countries andincreased domestic energy
production ,aretherefore evenmorerelevant andurgent.
Conclusions
>
19.TheCommission invitestheCouncil,inthelightoftheconclusions of
therecentmeetingoftheEuropean Council' andagainstthebackground of
theanalysis oftheworldandCommunity energysituation giveninthis
paper :
(i)toarrangefortheimplementation ofspecific actionstoachieve
thetargetsof'limitingoilconsumption in1979to500m.tonnes
andof'limiting 1985oiIimports ,totheir1978level;
<n)toconsider .urgently othermeasures necessary forthe
achievement ofmediumandlongertermCommunity energypolicy
objectives' suchasalreadyproposed bytheCommission .
*
(lii)toreviewthedevelopment andimplementation ofeffective
andconvergent energypolicies withintheCommunity ;
(iv)onthebasisofproposals tobemadebytheCommission ,toconsider
newCommunity objectives for1990withaview "totheirearly
adoption;
(v)todiscussthemeansbywhichtheCommunity canbestimproveits
energyrelations withproducer andotherthirdcountries .
+)seedocument C0M(79)118final.

THEENERGYSITUATION INTHECOMMUNITY (*>
SITUATION 1978-OUTLOOK 1979
ENERGY DEMAND
In1978theestimated inlanddemandforenergyreached 937milliontonsofoil
equivalent (mtoe),slightly exceeding the1973levelofconsumption and
representing agrowthof2.3%on1977.Thisincreaseindemand,whichcontrasted
withthevirtualstagnation oftheprevious year,wasareflection ofthesomewhat
higherrateofeconomic growth,theincrease inGDPin1978beingestimated at
2.8%.TheGDP/energygrowthrelationship wassignificantly different fromthat
of1977(GDP+2.3%/energy-0.08%),butbroadlyinlinewiththeobjective
established fortheyear1985fortheCommunity (1.0:0.8).
Theeconomic outlookfor1979indicates ahigherrateofgrowthestimated at3.4%.
Theforecast rateofgrowthininlandenergyconsumption isoftheorderof2.9%.
Thisimplies aGDP/energygrowthrelationship fairlysimilartothatoflastyear.
Thedemandforoilisexpectedtogrowbyabout2.0%,orthesamerateasin1978,
andthatofnatural gastorisebyabout7%,However,somediminution inthe
rateofgrowthofcoal(+1.7%)isenvisaged .Netelectricity consumption is
expected torisebyabout4-5%(Appendix 1).
0IL
Consumption intheEEC,USAandJapan(whichaccountfor85%ofOECDdemand)asa
wholeisestimated tohaverisenin1978byabout1.7%.Inallthreeregionsthe
increase occurred mainlyinmotorgasoline andheatinggasoil,whiledemandfor
residual fuelchangedlittle.Official andcompanyforecasts for1979suggest a
furthergrowthintotalconsumption oftheorderof2%.However,theOECD's
requirement forOPECoilisexpected tochangelittleovertheyears1977-79
becauseofincreased production outside OPEC,mostlyintheNorthSea(Appendix 2).
Crudeoilsupplies remained generally adequate throughout theyear1978,butin
AprilSaudiArabiaplacednewrestrictions upontheexportofArabianLightcrude,
limitingitto65%oftotal1978exports.Theconsequent reduction inlightcrude
availability ledtoariseinthepricesofgasoline andtheotherlighter
products inthesecondhalf-year .
(*)Reportasat15February 1979

Thesupplyprospects for1979becameveryuncertain whenIranianexportsceased
attheendof1978.Although thereplacement of5millionbarrelsperdayof
Iranianexportsiswithinthe"technical "capacity ofotherOPECstates,itsloss
wasnotfullymadegoodintheearlypartof1979,andtherewillremaina
shortfall ofabout2mb/d<100mt/y>,or5%ofOECDconsumption ,assuming Saudi
Arabialimitsproduction to9.5mb/dandotherscontinuetoproduceatend1978
levels.Arundownofstocksofabout10milliontonspermonth,therefore ,seems
likelysolongasIranianexportsarewithheld,butthisfigureistobecompared
withOECDstocksofcrudeoilandfinished products oftheorderof400million
tonsattheendof1978.
Although noearlydeficiency inoverallsupplyisexpected,theconsequences for
certaincompanies ,andfortheircustomers,werealreadyserious byearly1979,
andtheireffortstoobtainadditional supplies onthespotandauctionmarkets
pushedpricestolevelswellaboveofficialstatesellingprices *
Theofficialsellingpriceofthereference crude(ArabianLight34°API)remained
unchanged throughout 1978.InDecember OPECannounced quarterly increases for
1979,starting with5%inJanuary,reaching acumulative 14.5%byOctober and
averaging 10%fortheyear.Higherfirstquarterincreases wereappliedtolight
lowsulphurcrudswhosecontractpricesinmanycasesrosebyover10%.In
February SaudiArabiadecidedtoapplythepricesagreedbyOPECforOctober 1979
tothoseadditional quantities producedtoreplacelostIranianproduction ,
bringingtheaveragepriceincrease ^to6.5%sofarthisyear.
Theaveragecostofcrudeoilimported bytheCommunity during1978changedvery
little(Appendix 3).F.o.b.dollarpricesforcrudeoilwereinfactvirtually
unchanged overtheperiodJanuary/September,whileoilpricesexpressed in
national currencies fellonaveragebyabout10%asaresultofthedeclineinthe
valueofthedollar.Official andcompanies' scheduled sellingpricesfor
petroleum products intheMemberStateslikewise movedlittlein1978,although
thereweresomeincreases forgasoline andreductions forhighsulphurfueloilin
thesecondhalf.In1979theCommunity'ssupplycostsmustbeexpectedtorise
rathermorethanthe10%averageincrease announced byOPECbecauseofthelarger
increase inpricesofthelightlowsulphurcrudeandtheelimination ofdiscounts .

Asimilartrendisforeseenfordomestic productsellingpricesintheEEC,
whileimporters andconsumers whosepurchase pricesarelinkedtotheRotterdam
spotmarketwillfacemuchhigherincreases .
Grossconsumption ofoilintheCommunity isestimated tohavereachedabout535
milliontonsin1978,representing anincrease ofabout2%on1977.This
increase resulted fromhigherdemandfordistillates (motorgasoline +5.5%,
gasoils +6%),whileconsumption ofresidual fueloilwaslittlechanged.Demand
trendswerenotuniforminthevarious membercountries,increases of4-5%in
France,Germany andtheUnitedKingdomcontrasting withreducedorunchanged
consumption inDenmark,theNetherlands andItaly.Asimilarincrease indemand
isgenerally expected in1979.
Theincrease inconsumption in1978wasmorethancovered byhigherindigenous
production ofcrudeoilwhichrosefromnearly49milliontonsin1977toan
estimated 63milliontonsin1978,representing 12%oftotalEECsupply.Import
requirements ofcrudeandproducts wereconsequently slightly loweratabout472
milliontons.Grossconsumption in1979isestimated toreachabout545million
tonsand,withdomestic production expectedtoriseto95milliontons,theimport
requirement shouldbefurtherreducedto450milliontons(22%below1973).The
totalcostofCommunity netimportrequirements in1979istentatively estimated
atoverUS$52bn.compared with$48bn.in1978.
NATURAL GAS
Theyear1978hasseenacontinuation inthegrowthoftheimportance ofgasin
meetingtheCommunity'senergyneeds.Theshareheldbynaturalgasoftotal
primaryenergyconsumption withintheCommunity isestimated tohaveincreased from
16.7%in1976to17.1%in1977and17.5%in1973.AsCommunity production ofgas
hassloweddown,thisrapidincreaseisbeingmetfromimports.
Infactafallofalmost 5%wasrecorded fortotalgasproduction withinthe
Community in1978at135mtoe.Thiswaspartlyduetoafallinproduction of
almost 9%bytheNetherlands ,themainproducer intheCommunity,reflecting a
policyofmoreselective utilization ofthecountry'snaturalgasresources .
Therewasalsoa4%fallingasproduction bytheUK,whilstGermanproduction

.4.
•increased byalmost10%.Forthefirsttime,Irelandreported production of
smallquantities ofnaturalgas,whichalthough forecasttogrowrapidly,will
stillremainrelatively smallcomparedtootherMemberStates'production .
AgainstthisfallinCommunity production therewasapproximately a5%increase
intotalconsumption ofgastoabout164mtoe.Thiswasdespite afallin
consumption bytheNetherlands ,althoughallotherMemberStatesincreased their
consumption .Theincrease recordedfortheFederalRepublic ofGermany wasabout
10%,forFrance77.andfortheUKabout3%.
Thedisparity betweengrowingconsumption andafallinproduction wasmadeupby
ajumpof74%inthequantity ofgasimported fromthirdcountries .Inparticular
therewasamassiveincrease inthegasimported fromNorwayandthis-trendwill
continue sothatthequantities supplied in1980willbedoublethe1978level.
TheUSSRalsoincreased thequantities supplied during1978,andtherewasa
relatively smallincrease inthesupplies ofgasfromAlgeria.Theotherthird
countrysupplier,Libya,hasmaintained supplies (toItaly)ataboutthesame
levelas1977.
Theuseofgasinpowerstationsfellby5%;however,theforecast for1979isfor
anincrease ofalmost 4%over1978.OnlytheUKisforecast todecreaseitsuse
ofgasforelectricity generation thiscomingyear,whilstincreases areforecast
fortheFederalRepublic ofGermany,theNetherlands ,Belgium andIreland.
.Lookingtothefuture,production isforecasttoincrease in1979byabout2%and
importsbyabout30%.Thesesourceswillbeusedtomeetaforecast increase in
demandofabout7%.Thisincreaseisforecasttoresultfromafairlylarge
.increase intheindustrial sectorandamoremoderate increase of5%inthedomestic
andcommercial sectors .
C0AL
Totalcoalconsumption intheCommunity in1978atabout290mtonnes <177.1mtoe)
showedamodestincrease overthatoftheprevious year.Electricity producers
who,forthefirsttime,emergedasthebiggestconsumers ofcoalintheCommunity
in1976,havecontinued toincreasetheirleadoverthenextlargestmarket,the
steelindustry .
•/•••
ν
»

Provisional figures showelectricity coal-burn tohavebeenoftheorderof159m
tonnesin1978comparedtoslightly under151mtonnestheprevious year.This
growthshouldbeseeninthecontextoftheabove-averageaveilabilityofhydro­
electricity ,atleastduringthefirstpartoftheyear,andanumberofnuclear
powerstations comingintooperation .However,thisfurtherrisehasdonelittle
tonarrowtheenormous differences incoalconsumption forelectricity generation
betweendifferent MemberStates:about80%ofallhardcoalforelectricity
generation wasusedintheUKandGermany,oranevenhigherpercentage ifbrown
coalistakenintoaccount .
Themarketsforcoalandcokeforsteelproduction atabout72mtonnes (cokebeing
reckoned ascoalbyafactorof1.3)andinfoundries andgeneralindustry,have
beenstagnant in1978withnomorethanfaintindications ofanupturn.Onthe
otherhand,themarketfordomestic solidfuelshascontinued itscontraction ,
thoughataslightly slowerratethaninrecentyears,probably duetoprolonged
coldweather .
Coalproduction intheCommunity in1978ofabout238mtonnes(147mtoe)
represents amarginalfallfromtheprevious year.However,production couldhave
beensubstantially higherifmarketconditions hadnotobligedtheGermancoal
industry toholdbackoutputatwellbelowcapacity .
Likethepictureforproduction andconsumption ,thatforcoalimportsfromoutside
theCommunity in1978atabout45mtonnes (31.8mtoe)issimilartothatin1977,
Ofthese,about24mtonneswenttopowerstationsand 18mtonneswerecokingcoal.
'Therewaslittlechangeinworldmarketcoalpricesin1978intermsofUSdollars,
implying afallinpricesinmostCommunity currencies .Thissituation,combined
withrisingcosts,hasputtheCommunity'scoalindustry underincreasingly severe
financial pressure,resulting inmounting lossesandneedsforsubsidies .
Germancoalproducers continuetoholdlargestocksofcoalofvaryingqualities
andofcoke,thoughtheseareslightly smallerthanin1977.IntheUK,stocks
ofcoalsuitable forelectricity generation andgeneralindustry haverisento
substantial levels.Elsewhere intheCommunity,producers' stocksdonotexceed
workingrequirements .

Noimportant changestocoalconsumption canbeexpectedfor1979.Existing coal-
firedpowerstations arealreadybeingusedatclosetotheirfulleconomic
potential butsomenewcoal-fired plantduetocomeintooperation isexpected to
leadtoaslightincreaseintheCommunity'stotalcoal-burn .Demandforthe
steelindustryisunlikely toriseabovethatoflastyear,whilefurther
significant expansion ofthemarketforcoalingeneralindustry mustawait
furthertechnical developments . '
Likewise,therearenogroundstoexpectanysubstantial changesin1979eitherin
theCommunity'sowncoalproduction orinimports fromthirdcountries .
ELECTRICITY
(i)Electricity consumption
In1978netconsumption ofelectricity (at1127.7Twh)intheCommunity increased
byA.2%.Atnational level,themoresignificant increases inconsumption were
inDenmark (6.8%),France(6.6%)andIreland (6.9%),whoseeconomy wasthefastest
growingintheCommunity .Thelowestratesofincrease wereinLuxembourg andthe
UK(Appendix 5).
In1979electricity consumption isforecasttoincreasefurtherbybetween 4-5%;
thepositionwillbeinpartaffected bytheparticularly severewinterweatherat
thestartoftheyear.
(ii)Conventional powerstations
Conventional thermalpowerstations (i.e.thosefuelledprincipally bycoal,oilor
naturalgas)continued in1978tosupplyaboutthree-quarters oftotalnet
production byCommunity powerstations andthisshouldremaintheposition in1979.
Production fromthesestations wasover6%higherthanin1977andentailedfurther
increases tocoalandoilburning,butuseofnaturalgasinpowerstationsis
estimated tohavedecreased forthesecondconsecutive year.
Hydrological conditions werenotsfavourable in1978forproduction ofhydro­
electricity asintheearlierrecordyearof1977andhydro-generation accordingly
fellbyabout8%to141Twh(Appendix 5).

(ili)Nuclear energy
Thenuclearunitswhichhadbeenexpected tocomeintooperation in1978didso
inkeepingwiththeplanneddatelines ,withtheexception ofPhilippsburg 1
(FederalRepvblic ofGermany).Thefuelloadingforthisunitof864MWe,which
hadbeenblockedfortwoyears,wasfinally approved andthisunitshouldenter
intooperation earlyin1979.
Theaddition ofnearly4000MWetotheinstalled nuclear capacity oftheCommunity
hasraisedtotalnuclearcapacity to26,300 MWeatend1978andthecorresponding
production isestimated atsome115TWhor10%oftotalnetelectricityproducti on.
ApartfromPhilippsburg 1,onlytwoorthreeadditional Frenchunitsareexpected
tobelinkedtothegridin1979,andinstalled nuclearcapacity withinthe
Community shouldreachbetween 29,000and30,000 MWe.
NUCLEAR FUELS
Inthenaturaluraniumfield,themarketwassomewhat morelivelyin1978thanin
1977despiteconstruction delaysofpowerplantsinthemajority ofMemberStates.
Theneedsofreactors inoperation orwhicharelikelytoenterintooperation in
thenearfuturearecoveredbyexisting contracts .
Inbrief,theyear1978maybedescribed asoneinwhichsupplies continued tobe
received fromthetraditional suppliers ,andinwhichthemarketawaitedthe
prospects ofproduction inAustralia toberealized .
Withregardtotheoutlook,conditions ofstablesupplyseemlikelyandmajor
difficulties inrespectofnaturaluraniumorenriched uranium cannotbeforeseen,
although priceuncertainty isprobable,particularly becauseoftheincreasing
intervention ofpublicauthorities inthecommercial field.

Table 1
InlandConsumption ofPrimary EnergyintheCommunity
1976 1977 1978
Estimâtes1979
Forecasts
Mtoe y. Mtoe % Mtoe % Mtoe X
IHardcoal 178-6 19.5 172.9 18.9 177.1 18.9 180.3 18.7
Lignite 29.2 3.2 26.8 2.9 26.8 2.9 27.0 2.8
OU 507.4 55.3 493.9 53.9 505.5 53.9 515.0 53.4
Natural gas 153.3 16.7 157.3 17.1 164.3 17.5 175.4 •18.2
INuclearenergy 21.8 2.4 26.3 2.9 28.7 3.1 35.1 3.6
Hydro,geothermal
andothers26.7 2.9 39.1 4.3 34.9 3.7 32.0 3.3
TOTAL 917.0 100.0 916.3 100.0 937.3 100.0 964.8 100.0

Table2
Percentaoe Variation inGDPandEnergyConsumption
1977-19761978-1977 I1979-1978 !
Estimates Forecasts
GrossDomestic Product +2.3 +2.8 +3.4
■Energyinlandconsumption-0.08 +2.3 +2.9
ofwhich:| i
-Oil -2.7 +2.3 +1.9
-Solidfuels -3.9 +2.1 +1.7
-Naturalgas+2.6 +4.5 +6.8
-Nuclear energy+20.6 +9.1 +22.3
|~Hydro,geothermalandothers+46.4 -10.7 -8.3
Table3
EnergySupplyintheCommunity
(Mtoe)
1976 19771978 !
_ I1979
Produc-Net Produc-Net Produc- INet Produc-Net
tion imports*tion imports*tion|imports*tion imports*
-Solidfuels 186.8 28.4 174.3 27.7 173.5 26.3 174.7 31.6
*
-Oil 21.8 520.1 48.6 480.3 63.0 472.0 95.0 450.0
-Natural gas 142.2 11.6 142.2 16.9 135.2 30.6 137.9 38.6
-Primary 47.4 1.1 61.5 3.8 60.3 3.3 64.4 2.7
electricity ,etc.
TOTAL 398.2 561.2 426.6 528.7 432.0 532.2 472.0 522.9
*Importsminusexports.
Source:1976.1977andpartly1978:S0EC;other1978and1979:DGXVII(EEC).

Table4
EEC:Oitconsumption ,production andimportrequirements
(millions oftonnes)
1977 77/781978
estimâtes78/79 1979
Consumpt ion
Inland*. 493.9 +2.3% 505.5 +1.9% 515.0
Bunkers 30.6 29.5 30.0
Total 524.5 +2.0% 535.0 +1.9% • 545.0
Production 48.6 63.0 95.0
Netimports - 475.9** -0.8% 472.0 -4.7% 450.0
*
**Including
Includingrefiners' ownconsumption andlosses
stockvariation

Appendix 2
EEC,USAANDJAPAN:OILIMPORTREQUIREMENTS 1977-79
(Millions oftonnes)
1977 1977/78 1978 1978/79 1979
%+ (est.)*"
.1Consunpt ion
EEC 525 +2.0 535 ♦2.0 545
USA 890 +1.5 905 +2.0 922
Japan 278 ♦1.0 281 +3.2 290
1,693 ♦1.7 1,721 +2.1 1.757
Production
EEC 49 +29.0 63 +51.0 95
USA 490 +2.5 .503 505
Japan 1 1 1
540 +5.0 567 +6.0 601
Importrequirements
EEC 476 -0.8 *472 -4.7 450
USA 400 402 +3.7 417
Japan 277
I+1.1 280 +3.2 289
1.153 1.154 1.156
Including bunkers andrefinery ownuseandlosses
2Excluding Importsforstrategic reserve andotherstockchanges
Sources :EEC:Eurostat andCommission estimâtes
USA:ChaseManhattan,Independent Petroleum Association
Japan:0ECDandGovernment 5-yearplan •

ROTTERDAM :Table 1
Monthlyaverage fobbargeorices Dec.Appendix 3
1977toFeb.1979($/tonne)
Dec.1978Jan.1979mid-Feb.
Dec.1977June19781979
MotorGasoline
Premium 138 154 214 219 320 .
IRegular 130 141 201 209 310
Naphtha122 131 180 199 289
JetKero 130 132 187 207 323
IGasoil 120 121 152 194 326
fuelOH
Max.1%S 87 84 97 112 137
Max.3Y.S 80 73. 80 84 107
[Average(ArabLightΠ101 102 130 147 220
Yield)
Movements inspotpricesofsomecrudeoils1978/79(S/tonne)
1978 1979
iStatejEstimated spotvalues JStateSpot
sell-
ing
price1st
Quart2nd
Quart3rd
QuartNov.Sell-
ing
price
1^1art^Value
mid-
Feb.
Arabian Heavy27°API 84.984.483.883.285.288.3 140
ArabianLight34°API 93.693.393.694.397.398.3 160
LibyanZuetina41°API 106.5105.7105.5106.1113.4113.0 180
Sources:PlattsOilgram,Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

Appendix 3(cont.)
Table2
Averagefobandcifpricesofcrudeoil
imported intoMemberStates ($/tonne)
θ .£> •'0K.I
F IRL I ML UK EEC
F.o.b.cost
1977 Q392.37 91.84 97.20 92.79 [91.59 92.21 95.AO92.30 94.01
Q493.92 94.11 98.98 I94.26 93.06 93.10 95.48 92.82 94.90
1978 Q194.06 94.69 98.16 93-53 92.76 92.35 96.58 91.78j94.45
Q293.26 93.38 97.13 93.31 93.20 i92.88 94.30 92.67 94,23
Q3
Q492.74 94.55 97.05 93.16 92.40 ;
I92.88 ]
I94.74 92.97 94.16
C.i.f.cost
1977 Q3100.67 101.06 103,571102.64 I101.4998.08 102.09 102.15 101.77
Q4101.99101.79 104.60 104.11 103.10 98.37102.46;101.78102.36
1978 Q1101.99 ]99.38 104.01 103.81 102.88 97.85 102.53:101.41 101.84
Q2101.70101.50102.31 104.18 102.88 97.63 101.94101.19101.54
Q3100.55 !100.92 !102.53;104.69 102.15 97.56 101.43 101.19101.54
Q4
Indexofcifcrudeoilcostsinnational currencies
<1977Q1=100)
1977 Q3 I103.65 103.78 99.04 101.92100.87 102.64 101.41 101.62 101.45
Q4102.33 104.56 96.56102.20I97.63102.48 99.47 96.86 99.98
1978 Q194.92 95.85 89.57 i100.23 94.88 100.01 92.76 90.81 95.18
Q295.47 97.21 88..1197.25 91.81 99.84 91.87 95.14 94.81
Q3!92.82 94.36 85.33 93.22 91.28 96.97 89.36 90.42 91.33
Q4
Source :Information received underCouncilDirective 76/491/EEC'
ofA/5/1976. . .

SummaryofCoalSuDplySituation intheCommunity
Ct=t)
MiotProduction Imports ExportsStock
variationInLand
consumption
1977
Coal
Coke
Lignite andpeat240.A j
69.2 !
132.0 I46.0
0.6
1.61.8
4.5
0.2
•ι+2.5*
-2.7
+0.6287.1
62.6
134.0
TOTAL
Solidfuels
Mtoe 174.3 32.3 4.6 -2.3 199.7
1978
!Coal 238.1 45.3 3.5 +10.1*290.0 I
ICoke 64.4 0.5 6.0 +2.8 61.7
ILigniteandpeat 132.7 ' 1.5 0.2 134.0
TOTAL
ISolidfuels
Mtoe 173.5 ,•33.1 6.8 +4.1 203.9
1979
ICoal 's- 237.4 . 50.8 2.3 +9.1* 295.0
ICoke 67.2 0.5 4.7 +1.5 64.5
ILigniteandpeat 134.0 1.0 0.2 134.8
TOTAL
ISolidfuels
IMtoe 174.7 36.6 5.0 +1.0 207.3
*Includingstatistical variation,products fromrecuperation andproduction ofsmallmines.
Source:1977,S0EC;1978and1979:D6XVII/B/3.

NetConsumption ofElectricity (including losses )
(thousand millions ofkWh)
YEAR EUR-9 D F I NL B L UK IRL DK
1976 1,047.8 312.4 196.4 154.7 .55.4 41.3 3.4 256.0 7.7 20.U
1977 1,081.7 319.6 206.8 160.1 56.5 43.1 3.4 262.2 8.3 21.7
1978 1,127.7 333.0 220.5 166.7 59.2 45.2 3.5 267.5 8.9 23.2
Increase :
1977 /76
1978 /77+3.2%
+4.2%+2.3%
+4.2%+5.3%
+6.6%+3.5%
+4.1%+2.0%
+4.7%+4.3%
+4.9%+0.1%
+2.5%+2.4%
+2.0%+8.1%
+6.9%+6.4%
+6.8%
Total NetProduction ofElectricity
Breakdown byenergy sources
EUR-9 Total Hydro Geothermal NuclearConvent ion-
althermal
Year 1977
Year 19781,073.0
1,122.7152.9
140.82.4
2.4103.8
115.1813.9
864.4
Increase :
1978 /77 +4.6 /i -7.9% +0.2% +10.9% +6.2%
Breakdown
oftotal :
1977
1978100%
100%14.2%
12.5%mmmmmmmm– mm_mm_ammm m.
0.2%
0.2%9.7%
10.3%75.8%
77.0%
Source :Eurostat