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COMMISSION  OF THE  EUROPEAN  COMMUNITIES 
COM(83)  304  final 
Brussels,  3rd  June  1983 
THE OIL REFINING INDUSTRY OF THE COMMUNITY 
(Communication  from  the Commission to the Council) 
COM(83)  304  final 

Communication  from  the  Commission  to the 
Council  on the Oil  Refining  Industry  of the  Community. 
I. Introduction  : 
1. In a  Communication  to the  Council  of  October  1981 (COM (81) 534  final)  the 
Commission  drew  attention  to the  problems  of the oil  refining industry  and 
in particular  to its  poor profitability over  the  greater  part  of the  period 
1974-80. 
2. The  Commission identified,  as a  major  and  remediable cause  of the  industry's 
inadequate margins,  the  large excess  of  basic refining capacity which  had 
arisen mainly  as a  result  of the  fall  in oil  consumption following  the oil 
price increases  of  ,1973/4  and  1979/80  (the  trends  in  capacity  and  demand  are 
shown  in  Annex  1).. It  sgggested  that  the  capacity required  to  supply  the 
foreseen level  of  demand  of  about  500  million tons  (m.t.) was of the  order  of 
600 million tons  per  year  (m.t/y),  25%  less than  that  available  in  January  1981. 
v > 
3. The  difficulties  of the  Community's industry  were  compounded  by  similar develop­
ments elsewhere  in the  world, which  led to  over-capacity  in  every phase.  In 
particular  the  fall  in the  import requirements  of the USA and  other traditional 
EEC export markets restricted  the  outlet  for  Community refiners  at a  time  when 
North African exports  were  increasing their share  of the  home  market.  Annex  2 
illustrates  the  change  in the  capacity-demand balance  in the  main regions  of 
the world since  1973. 
4. A  further cause  for  concern  was the  need  for the  industry,  in  these depressed 
conditions,  to  undertake major investments  to  adapt  its  output  to a  rapidly 
changing  pattern  of  product demand, characterised  by a  steep decline  in the use 
of heavy fuel oils  for  electricity generation  and by  certain other major  Industrie; 
5. The  Commission recommended  to the  Council  that  the  solution  of  these problems 
could  and  should  be  left  to the  companies themselves, each adapting  its EEC 
operations  to the  foreseen demand  for its  products, provided  that  neither security 
of supply  nor  freedom  of  competition  was  endangered  in the  process.  The 
Commission  for its  part  undertook  to  monitor progress  and to  report  to the 
Council  as  necessary. This  was  last done  in a  Communication  to the  July  1982 

2. 
Council  (COM  (82) 360  of 15.6.1982). 
6. The Commission has sought to assist indirectly in the rest-ucturing process by 
providing  to the 
by suggesting wh industry a degree of transparency not previously available and 
at future capacity requirements  were  likely to be. In bilateral 
consultations  wtjich  havi taken place for some years at six monthly intervals, 
the companies  héive  supplied data regarding existing capacity, planned investments 
and withdrawals,, and refinery  processing,  which have enabled the Commission to 
draw up a reasonably accurate picture of the state of the industry and its future 
shape.  The capacity forecasts made in this way have then been compared  with 
the expected tr^nd and composition of demand, and ti.? results made available to 
the industry in aggregated form as a reference for action by individual companies. 
7. The Commission lias just completed a new round of consultation!  with  tht Industry, 
and with  member states. The purpose of this document 1i to  Inform  the Council of 
the present situation and prospects of the industry and to aeek the  Council's 
agreement to a number of orientations for the future^ 

3. 
II. Distillation Capacity and Needs 
8. The volume of crude processed in Community refineries declined by a further 
7.5%  in  1982  to  422  m.t., one third below  1973,  as a result of lower consumption, 
higher net imports of finished products, and withdrawals from  stocks.  This 
trend, and the expectations of Member States and industry for the  future  are 
Summarised  in the  table  below. 
EEC - 10 :  Demand on Community Refineries  1973-90  (m.t.) 
1973 1981 1982 1990 
Ind.d) MS(2) 
Consumption 603 475 452 425 - 455 465 
Net Imports  (-) +25 -15 -24* -70 - -30 -30 
Stock  Change + 8 - 5 - 6 - -
Refinery  Intake 636 455 422 355 - 425 435 
Mid-year Capacity 
- actual/firm plans 755 770 720 630 
- required at  80% C3> 
utilisatiion 800 570 525 440 " 530 540 
- % Utilisation 84 59 58 
* By difference. Recorded figure of 35 contains some feedstocks. 
(DThe range of the estimates provided by ten companies in February/March 1983. 
(2) Consumption  is aggregate of Member State estimates of 9/82; Net imports are 
Commission  estimate. 
(3) 80% utlisation is generally regarded as satisfactory for economic operation 
and as giving adequate cover for demand fluctuations. 
Consumption 
9. Current estimates of the demand upon Community refineries in 1990 thus range from 
a low of 355 m.t. to a high of 435 m.t. If 80% is  taken  as an acceptable level 
of average plant utilisation, the corresponding rounded figures for  total 
capacity  required would be  450-550  m.t/y.  The Commission recommends  that 
the Community's available capacity should be sufficient to cover the highest 
likely level of demand and  that  planning should therefore be based on a figure 
of 550 m.t/y for the year 1990. Moreover the Commission believes  that  on this 
occasion  the companies' estimates err on the low side because : 

4. 
- they were elaborated against the assumption  that  the 3i I price would 
remain in real terms at the level of end 1982, i.e. above 830/bbl. 
Lower  figures are serious possibilities in the  light  of events in 
regent months. Although the companies maintain  that  energy demand 
is price-inelastic over a considerable range, the Commission believes 
that  on the contrary it will prove responsive to falling prices as it 
did to the preceding rise. 
- should estimates of Community energy derrand prove too low, there would 
be a disproportionate rise in the consumption o. oil as the swing fuel. 
Thus  a 5% increase in energy consumption in 1^90 would raise oil demand by 
11% in 1990 if the contribution f-om other fuels were unchanged. 
- Community estimates of energy from nuclear and perhaps coal are more likely 
to be over- than under-stated, and any shortfall will be made good at least 
partly by oiI. 
Imports  of Petroleum Products 
10. Predictions regarding the  future  level of net imports of finished products, the 
other determinant of the demand on Community refineries, also vary widely from 
30 m.t. to 70 m.t. in 1990.  Since  1973 the external balance has moved from a 
surplus of 25 m.t. to an estimated deficit of 24 m.t. in 1982, thereby reducing 
demand on Community refineries by 50 m.t/y or 8%. This deterioration has 
resulted partly from reduced exports, in line  with  the general contraction in 
international product trade (by 10% 1981 /1973), but mostly from increased 
imports from sources as diverse as the USA, Spain and Algeria and particularly 
the USSR  whose shipments to the Community are three times those of the next 
supplier. 
11. The increase in net imports*of products from 15 m.t. in 1981 to an estimated 
24 m.t. in 1982 was largely due to the anomalous relationship in 1982 between 
prices  for crude oil and products. Many producers, OPEC and  non-OPEC,  anxious 
to increase  sales  in a weak market, offered products, manufactured in their 
own or  third  party refineries, at prices equivalent to a value for crude much 
below its official price. EEC refiners therefore found it profitable to run lesi 
crude and to increase purchases of products manufactured overseas. 
A 

5. 
12. It seems unlikely  that  the unusual price relationships of 1982 and early 
1983  can become a lasting feature of the market (although they'may well 
recur from time to time) because discounted product prices eventually under­
mine Official crude oil prices - as they did in the  first  quarter of 1983. 
In trying  to  assess  the  future  trend in product imports the Commission has 
therefore regarded the 1982 figure as abnormally high and based its estimates 
on the 1980-82 average of around 20 m.t. It must be recognised, however, 
that  any forecast is subject to even greater uncertainty than usual and  that 
developmentswi11 therefore have to be closely monitored. 
13. Although increased shipments from other sources, and particularly the  USSR, 
cannot be ruled out, the main factor determining the  future  trend in EEC 
imports is expected to be the increase in the mid 1980's in the export capacity 
of OPEC  countries, especially Saudi  Arabia.  The Commission's estimate of 
OPEC  export availability is shown at Annexe 3 but it must be stressed  that 
individual estimates vary over a considerable range. The capacity forecast 
includes  only those  OPEC  refineries known to be under construction or committed. 
It is consequently conservative, especially as regards the late 1980's because 
no provision can yet be made for new construction in  Iran  or Iraq  which will 
undoubtedly take place eventually. The forecast of  OPEC  countries' domestic 
consumption is  that  made  by the  OPEC  Secretariat to 1985 and extrapolated to 
1988 giving a rate of annual average increase of 8.5%. 
14. Taking capacity utilisation at 85% - a very high average figure - export 
availability is estimated on the above assumptions to rise by 30 m.t/y to 
120 m.t/y between 1980 and 1985/6. Of this increase it seems reasonable, 
although arbitrary, to assume  that  one  third  will come to the EEC, roughly 
in line  with  the Community's share of  OPEC  crude exports. EEC net imports 
would consequently rise from below 20 m.t/y in 1980/81 to about 30 m.t/y in 
1985/6. 
Ill. The Reduction of Crude Distillation Capacity 
15. Since  EEC capacity peaked at around 830 m.t/y in 1977 some 155 m.t/y has been 
retired, bringing the  total  installed at the end of 1982 to about 675  m.t/y. 
(720 mt/y at midyear). Over the period 1977-82 18 refineries were  closed, 
14 of them in 1981 and 82 alone, and a considerable number of units dismantled 
at refineries remaining in operation. Firm plansfor 1983-90, including 

6. 
five more complete site closures, will bring capacity down to about i 
630:m.t/y, 200 m.t/y below the 1977  total  and 80 m.t/y above the ' 
estimate of capacity required mentioned in para 9. A considerable 
further  effort  by the industry to cut capacity by another 80 m.t/y , 
would therefore be needed to reach the Commission's suggested figure 
of 550  m.t/y.  i 
16. Capacity reductions have always been discussed in Community terms because 
it would have been impracticable/ inefficient and inappropriate to seek 
similar  and simultaneous cuts in all member states. In fact, however, over 
the period 1977-86, there are not expected to be large disparities in the 
proportion of capacity withdrawn in those countries where there is a substantial 
refining activity. As annexe 4 shows, the estimated percentage reductions 
apart from  Greece  and Ireland, lie mostly in the 20's except for Belgium and 
the Netherlands whose industries, heavily export-orientated, have suffered 
most from the fall in Community and  third  country demand, and where over 30X 
of capacity will  close. 
17. Companies commented, often in some detail, on the results of efforts to 
resettle those employed at refineries which had been or were to be  closed. 
It was clear  that,  in most of the fifteen  cases  covered, the number of 
employees  who would be  left  without  a job or an early pension would be  small. 
In the worst  cases,  namely the one or two old refineries  with  relatively large 
work forces and located in areas of high unemployment, the number might reach 
a few hundred. The number originally employed at the fifteen plants was about 
7r00,  some 10%'of the industry work force; about 1000 are likely to be 
left  without  a job or an early pension. Companies stressed the importance of 
planning and early action in limiting the consequences of closures for the 
staff.  In several instances recruitment had been stopped long before closure 
actually took place, both at the plant concerned and at others belonging to the 
same  group,  with  the result  that  natural wastage had greatly reduced the  size 
of the problem of redundancy. Estimates of secondary unemployment in firms 
supplying goods and services to refineries are not available. The effects are 
obviously  least where sites remain in use as terminals and where investments 
by other employers in the area are in progress. 

18. It was stressed  that  even when job  Losses  were small the closure of plants 
was difficult,  protracted and costly. These high "exit" costs could, according 
to several companies, deter owners from closing plants, especially when the 
obligation to maintain compulsory stocks made it impossible to realise the 
potential working capital savings available from closure. 
19. The continued supply of the areas served by refineries now closed appears to have 
presented few probelms. In Ireland, however, the government has judged it 
necessary  to purchase and reopen the only refinery, closed by its previous owners, 
because  of its concern about security of supply. Certain features of the measure; 
taken to ensure continued operation of this refinery are currently being 
questioned both by the Commission and in the Courts. 
Most  of the other sites have remained in operation as terminals, supplied  with 
products by the former crude oil lines, or by water, from another of the companies 
refineries. In one or two  cases  arrangements have been made between companies to 
supply each other's product requirements in specific areas following refinery 
closures.  In themselves, such arrangements are not contrary to the Treaty, 
provided  that  free competition in the mrket is not affected. 
20. Several companies expressed the view  that  the surplus of distillation capacity 
was no longer a major cause of low profitability. They argued  that,  given the 
relationship between crude oil and product prices, there was no commercial 
incentive for the EEC refiner, processing  OPEC  crude, to use spare primary 
capacity unless he could upgrade the primary distillation yield. Hence the 
existence  of spare distillation units had no effect on prices in the market. 
The Commission does not share this view. Although the EEC refiners may see no -
margin on primary distillation,  OPEC  producers, anxious to increase their sales 
of low cost crude, are plainly in a different position and in fact processed in 
1982 quite large quantities in European refineries for the distillation yield. 
Spare  topping capacity, especially in the Mediterranean, cannot therefore be 
disregarded and the Community should continue its efforts to bring  total  capacity 
into  line  with  domestic demand. 
21. The offer for sale of several of the refineries closed by international majors 
has raised the question whether in fact apparent reductions in the capacity in 
service  will prove to be illusory because plants are resold to companies whose 
supply costs are lower. The Commission has in the past argued  that  this would 
probably not occur on a significant  scale,  because producers' integrated margins 
on production and refining were unlikely to exceed, and could well be less than 
that  on crude oil  sales.  In 1982 however, the  case  for acquiring downstream 

8. 
assets  was transformed by the inability of certain producers to sell at 
official prices as much crude oil as they wished or was permitted under 
OPEC  quota agreements. In these circumstances the only way in which 
producers  can increase crude oil production, while keeping  faith  with 
their.  OPEC  obligations, is to increase product  sales  either  from  their 
own refineries or  from  third  party refineries under processing arrangements. 
Acquisition  of existing assets  will  inevitably appear the soundest and least 
disruptive way to secure a long-term  outlet  for products at consumer rather 
than spot prices. To the extent,'however,  that  the new comers acquire 
refining capacity in  excess  of the marketing  outlet  purchased they  will 
be under the same economic pressure as the former owners to close some of it. 
22. As the demand for  OPEC  crude revives the incentive for producers,to invest 
downstream is likely to diminish.lt is, however, too early to judge the 
extent to which capacity  will  simply change hands rather than be permanently 
withdrawn , and developments  will  have to be monitored. 
IV. Structural and operating changes in the market 
23. There have occurred in the last year or so therefore several developments of 
considerable  importance, namely : 
- an increase in purchases/imports of products and feedstocks by Community 
refiners and a corresponding reduction in the  quantity  of crude oil 
acqui  red. 
- an increase in processing of crude by producing countries in Community 
and third  country refineries. 
- the acquisition by producers of downstream assets in the Community. 
24. The  first  two developments resulted  from  the discounting of product prices 
relative to the official crude price; they are reversible and may prove to 
be shdVt-lived. They were beneficial in forcing crude oil prices down 
towards the market clearing  level;  detrimental in so far as they caused 
new disparities in the acquisition costs of  different  importers to the 
disadvantage  of companies locked in to crude oil contracts at official prices. 
Processing  arrangements were profitable to EEC refiners and d>d not destabilise 
the market when the products were purchased by established refiner/marketers 
and distributed through their networks ; they had adverse effects on market 
prices,  however, when the products were unloaded on to an already  glutted 
spot market. 

9. 
25. The acquisition by the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation of the refining and 
marketing assets of some of the US Gulf Corporation's European affiliates, 
and by  Saudi 1 Arabian interests of those of Standard of Indiana in  Italy, 
are developments of more profound and lasting importance. The same is  true 
of the formation by Petroven and  Veba  of a  joint  venture to process heavy 
Venezuelan  crude oils. 
26. All these investments by producing countries offer potential advantages 
to the Community. They give to the producers concerned a long-term interest 
in maintaining regular supplies to the Community and a first-hand knowledge of 
the realities of the market place. They should improve understanding and 
cooperation between producing and importing countries. To the extent  that 
refinery acquisitions remove the producers' need to build refining capacity at 
source,  they reduce the general burden of  excess  capacity. In  cases  where, as 
in the Petroven/Veba venture, investments in advanced and novel processes provide 
in the Community the capability to  treat  very heavy crudes, there is again to 
diversity of supply, and a transfer of technology to the producer 
27. It is  important,of  course,that the producers should supply crude oil to their refining 
affiliates at the same price as to  third  parties, so  that  they compete on even 
terms in the market place. ' The Commission believes  that  the newcomers are likely 
to take this consideration  into  account. 
28. The transfer of refining assets to producing countries could, however, in some 
circumstances,  have adverse effects upon the diversity and consequently the 
security of supply. For example, if a signficant  part  of the Community industry 
were to come  into  the ownership of one or two producing countries,' 
the effects upon the Community of any  interruption  of exports  from  those 
countries could be serious. 

10. 
V. Conversion Capacity 
29. While coping  with  the problem of  excess  primary capacity the companies 
have been obliged to undertake large programmes of investment to adapt the 
product  output  of refineries to the changing  pattern  of demand, and, in partic­
ular, to the much reduced  outlet  for residual fuel oil,which is expected to 
remain uncompetitive  with  other energy forms, particularly  coal.  Estimates 
of the changes to be expected in the relative demand for the various products 
differ  considerably  from  one company to another but a middle of the range 
forecast is as follows :-
EEC - 10 Consumption of'-Main Product Group 73-90 
1973 1981 1990 
Gasoline 
Gasoil/Kero 
Fuel  Oil 
Other/own use m.t. 
72 
201 
205 
125 X 
12.0 
33.3 
34.0 
20.7 m.t • 
79 
170 
126 
100 % 
16.6 
35.8 
26..5 
21.1 m.t. 
83 
180 
103 
104 % 
18.0 
38.0 
22.0 
22.0 
Total 603 100.0 475 100.0 470 100.0 
30. While consumption of motor gasoline and gasoil/kerosine is forecast to rise 
slightly, fuel oil use is expected to fall by a  further  20% by 1990 to a level 
only 50% of 1973. It would then represent 22% of the barrel as compared with; 
34% in 1973. "Other products", which include the petrochemical feedstock 
naphtha, and other non-energy products, roughly maintain their volume and 
increase  their share. 
31. Progress by the industry in expanding conversion capacity, and its current fin 
projects, are summarised in the table below : 

11. 
EEC-10  Intake  Capacity  of  Conversion Plant 1973-86 
(Millidn  of  tonnes/year) 
Catalytic Crackers 
Thermal crackers 
Visbreakers 
Cokers 
Hydrocrackers 
Total 
Equivalent catcracker 
capacity * 
% of distillation capacity 
% of crude run 73 
43.0 
21.0 
4.0 
68.0 
60.0 
8 
9 11 
59.0 
11.2 
36.7 
8.5 
6.7 
122.1 
100.0 
13 
22 82 
66.5 
11.2 
45.0 
8.5 
7.0 
138.0 
110.0 
15 
26 86 
68.7 
11.8 
48.0 
11.0 
12.5 
152.0 
125.0 
23 
28 
In order roughly  to  measure  the  growth  in  overall capacity  to  convert residue  to 
distillates,  the  capacities  of othertypes  of  plant  of  widely  differing  capability have 
been  calculated  in  terms  of the  degree  of  conversion relative  to the  catalytic 
cracker,  the  most commonly used  unit.  So  measured, conversion capacity  has  almost 
doubled since  1973 and is  estimated  to  rise  a further  14% by 1986. By 1986 it  should 
be possible  to  upgrade  28% of the  crude distilled  in  Community refineries compared 
with  9% in 1973. 
32. The  Commission estimates  that,if  current programmes  are  carried through,  the  capacity 
available  will  be at  least adequate  to  meet  any  likely  pattern  of  product demand  in 
1990,especially  having regard  to the  expansion  of  conversion capacity  in  Spanish 
refineries. 
* Relative distillate yields taken as  : Catcracker 1.00, Visbreaker 0.33, 
thermal cracker 0.65, Hydrocracker 1.50,  Coker  1.50. 

12. 
VI. Conclusions 
33. Voluntary action by the companies reduced industry's primary capacity during 
1981/82 by 100 m.t/y (13%) bringing the  total  at the end of 1982 to about 
675 a.t/y.  Additional closures  firmly  planned should  further  reduce capacity 
to 630  m.t/y.  The burden of capacity reduction is being shared by all the 
larger member states and by all the maj.or refining groups. 
The approach to the problem of over-capacity adopted by the Council of October 
1981 appears therefore to have been effective and should, in the Commission's view, 
be continued. 
34. The capacity requirement suggested to the Council in 1981 was 600  m.t/y.  The 
subsequent fall in consumption and the lower estimates for 1990 now generally 
accepted,  suggest  that  the capacity requirement in  that  year is unlikely to exceed 
550 m.t/y.  A  further  major  effort  by the companies will therefore be needed to 
bring capacity from the present 675 m.t/y to 550 m.t/y as rapidly as possible. 
35. The unemployment effects of refinery closures in 1981/2 are in most  cases  slight 
and the number  without  work or pension as a result of them of the order of 1000 
in total. No special measures for Community assistance are therefore necessary at 
the present time. 
36. Subject to the point mentioned in 19 above, there is no evidence  that  closures have 
posed  any problems of continuity or security of supply. In one or two  cases 
arrangements have been made between companies to supply each others requirements. 
As already noted, such arrangements &re not in themselves contrary to the Treaty 
provided  that  free competition in themarket is not affected. 
37. The rising trend in net imports of finished products  into  the Community is  within 
acceptable  limits but developments remain uncertain. 
38. The acquisition of downstream assets in the Community by the state entities of 
producing countries, which began in 1982 and seems likely to continue in 1983, 
is a development of considerable importance and could have implications for 
established  supply patterns. 

13. 
39. The Commission intends to monitor the trend in net imports of petroleum 
products, and investments by oil exporting countries in refining and marketing 
assets  in the Community. It will continue consultations  with  governments, 
companies.,  and Trades Unions and will report further to the Council as 
necessary. 
Action  requested of the Council 
40. The Council is requested to agree :-
(a) that  present Community policies towards the oil refining industry, 
which seeks solutions to its problems through the voluntary action of 
the companies, monitored by the Commission, should be continued. 
(b) that  further efforts to reduce Community distillation capacity to 
550 m.t/y,  and to concentrate operations at fewer more complex refineries, 
are necessary and should be encouraged. 

CD 
Eur 10-. PRIMARY DISTILLATION CAPACITY CONSUMPTION 
AND REFINERY THROUGHPUT 
850 mt/y 
Nominal Capacity 
Usable Capacity 
at 85°/.  Norn 
Capacity According 
to Present Plans 
Consumption Commission  Estimate 
of Capacity Required 
Refinery Throughput 
Net Imports 
Highest likely Level 
of Refinery  Intake 

UTILISATION OF DISTILLATION  CAPACITY 
IN WESTERN  WORLD 
Million tonnes 
Consumption Net Exports  
of Refined  
products Total Demand  
Refineries Capacity  
m.idryear-, X 
Utilisation 
EEC 1973 603 
1981 475 • ' 25 
- 15 628 
460 755 
770 83 
60 
USA 1973 
1981 818 
743 - 140 
- 56 678 
687 695 
910 97 
75 
JAPAN 1973 
1981 269 
224 - 35 
- 23 234 
201 230 
282 100 
71 
REST 1973 
1981 653 
828 • 118 
• 54 771 
882 905 
1318 85 
67 
TOTAL 1973 
1981 2343 
2270 - 32 
- 40 2311 
2230 2585 
3280 89 
68 
* Ignoring stock movements 
Source  : (except EEC ) BP Statistical Review of World  Industry. 

OPEC'.Estimated  potential  product  export  capacity  1980-1988 
(Hilli«rttof  tonnM  par y*r-  MUUna  tt ktrrtls pf  4p) 

OPEC  : Estimated  Distillation  Capacity  1980-88  (Thousands  of b/d) 
OPEP  : Estimation  de la  capadte  de  distillation  1980-1988  (Millions  de b/j) 
OPEC  : beschatzte  PestiIlationskapazit3t 1980-88  (in  Tausend  Fass/Tag) 
i, P '.' »; f C 1980 1981 1982 1983 " 1984'1- 1985 1986-90 
S. Arabia 750 850 1050'. 1050 1300 1800 2000 
Kuwait 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 
U.A.E. 15 135 135 195 220 220 220 
Qatar 11 61 61 111 111 111 111 
Iraq 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 
Iran 530 530 530 530 530 530 53(J 
M.E. 2205 2475 2675 2785 3060 3560 37<0 
Alg. 436 611 611 611 611 611 761 
Libye 130 130 " 350 350 350 350 350 
Gabon 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 
Nigeria 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 
Africa 870 1045 1265  • 1265 1265 1265 1415 
M.E / Afrlca 3075 3520 3940 4050 4325 4825 5175 
Latin  America 1540 1540 1540 1540 1622 1623 16?"* 
Far East 470 470 470 470 870 870 j 8Tu 
5085 5530 5950 6060 6818 7318 { 7668 

4. 
EEC-10  : Closures  carried  out or  planned  1977 - 90 
(millions  of tonnes/year) 
1/77 Capaci  ty 
1/83 Closed 
77-82 Firm 
Projects 
.1983-  90 Total actual/ 
Firm 
1977-?0 X T3 • 
Tl V 
Probable 
1983-90 Total actual; 
firm, probaale 
1977-'90 X 
* 
B 55.3 36.3 19.0 - 19.0 34 
DK 10.9 8.1 2.8 - 2.8 26 
D 152.6 120.2 32.4 1.7 34.1 22 
E* 17.9 18.7 (0.8) - (0.8) -
F .171.5 142.5 29.0 8.0 37.0 22 
Ire 2.9 2.9** - - - -
I 182.0 155.0 27.0 13.4 40.4 22 — 
N 102.4 78.4 24.0 8.8 32.8 32 
UK 136.6 111.1 25.5 12.5 38.0 28 
EEC-10 832.1 673.2 158.9 44.4 203.3 24 50.6" 253.9 30 
* Future capacity under review  by  government. 
** of  which  the Irish  government only intends  to use  half. 
Source  : company estimates  of  Feb/Mar  1983 and  comments  by  some member governments.