COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - Activities and Human Resources of the Commission in the Enlarged European Union

Table of Contents

1. An unprecedented challenge

1.1. Introduction

1.2. A substantial increase of tasks for all Institutions

1.3. Major economic and social responsibilities for the Commission

1.4. Guaranteeing harmonious implementation of the Community acquis

1.5. Purpose of the Communication

2. Scenario

2.1. Working hypothesis

2.2. The general financial framework: Agenda 2000

3. Methodology

3.1. Finding human resources 'drivers'

3.2. The process

3.3. Screening demands

3.3.1. The linguistic services

3.4. Definitions used for the estimates

3.4.1. Full Time Equivalent (FTE)

3.4.2. Groupings of activities and 'métiers'

4. Commission's human resources needs for enlargement

4.1. Estimated needs

4.2. Needs by type of additional human resources and source of financing required

4.3. Phasing-in of new posts in Part A of the budget

5. Budgetary implications for Heading 5 (Administration)

6. human resources needs of the commission in context

6.1. Estimated needs of the Commission and of other Institutions

6.2. Current estimates compared with previous enlargements

7. community policies and related activities affected by enlargement

7.1. Developments by main policy groupings

7.1.1. Internal Policies

7.1.2. Structural and Cohesion Actions

7.1.3. Agriculture and fisheries

7.1.4. Research

7.1.5. External Policies

7.1.6. Pre-accession (including delegations in accession countries, ISPA and SAPARD)

7.1.7. Linguistic services

7.1.8. Support and co-ordination services

7.2. Developments by main job profiles (métiers)

7.2.1. Law making, maintenance and enforcement

7.2.2. Programme management

7.2.3. Policy making

7.2.4. Administrative and budgetary support

7.2.5. Linguistic

8. Conclusions

1. An unprecedented challenge

1.1. Introduction

The challenge facing the European Union is unprecedented in terms of the scale of the enlargement. Moreover, over the last ten years the future Member States have experienced intense political, economic and social transformations.

As soon as it took up office this Commission made making a success of enlargement its priority task. After accession the Commission will have to ensure that the European project of political, economic and social integration can continue harmoniously and that all Union citizens derive all potential benefit from enlargement. This twin challenge requires a fundamental review of policies, their objectives and Community methods of working in an enlarged Europe resolved to continue the integration process.

1.2. A substantial increase of tasks for all Institutions

The unprecedented scope and diversity of the next enlargement can be illustrated with a few figures:

* Up to ten new Member States from 15 to 25 by the year 2004 (66% increase).

* Up to ten new official languages from 11 up to 21 (82% increase for 9 new official languages, 90% in case of 10 new official languages).

* 75 million additional citizens of the Union bring the total population from 376 to 451 million by the year 2004 (20% increase).

The tasks of policy development, preparation of legislative proposals and control of their execution will be both more complex and heavier in an enlarged Union, also in comparison with previous enlargements.

All Community Institutions are concerned, and all have identified unprecedented needs in terms of addition staff to face the increasing tasks.

1.3. Major economic and social responsibilities for the Commission

The success of enlargement means that the Commission, the executive body and driving force in the European Union, must be in a position to play its full role in order to ensure that enlargement will provide sustainable benefits for all citizens of the enlarged EU.

Although the radical political, economic and social changes made by the candidate countries are already bearing some fruit, their prosperity still trails far behind that of the fifteen Member States, whether it be measured in terms of per capita gross national product (35% of the EU average in 2000), current account balance (deficit of 5% of GNP in 2000), annual price inflation (15% in 2000) or unemployment (12.5% in 2000). The restructuring of entire sectors of their economy (heavy industry, agriculture, etc.) will have to continue after accession, as the reduction of the considerable disparities between regions and between urban and rural areas will inevitably be a gradual process.

Following enlargement it will be principally under the common agricultural policy, structural operations and internal policies that the Commission will have to manage programmes designed to support the new Member States. This will mean enhancing its capacity to manage these programmes and, in the first years after accession at least, providing specific support for the administrative structures for the new Member States responsible for programming, implementing and scrutinising these Community programmes.

The strategic goal that the Union set itself in Lisbon in 2000 to become the most competitive and most dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010 can only be attained by even closer coordination and careful monitoring of national and Community efforts in order to ensure that they converge on this target. For the new Member States, given their situation at the time of accession, the success of the Lisbon strategy will require additional supervisory and support efforts on the part of the Commission.

The continuation of the sustainable development strategy defined in Gothenberg in June 2001 will also require additional efforts to address the particularly serious environmental situation in most of the candidate countries. The transitional periods set in the accession negotiations will have to be used to resolve the essential problems and to enable the new Member States to meet Community environmental standards as quickly as possible.

Finally, the resolve to develop European governance involving the public more closely in the operation of the institutions will mean, for the Commission in an enlarged EU, further efforts of transparency, information, communication, consultation and dialogue both with the other EU institutions and with national governments and parliaments and, of course, the general public. Here too the special features of the situation in the new Member States will demand additional efforts from the Commission.

1.4. Guaranteeing harmonious implementation of the Community acquis

As the guardian of the Treaties the Commission will have to ensure that the Community acquis is properly applied, as it does with the current Member States.

While the candidate countries have resolutely and with Community support been making considerable efforts to prepare to assume their future responsibilities as Member States, it is still possible that in certain cases their administrative and judicial systems will benefit from some years' "real life" practice. It will be in the light of experience in the initial years after accession that these countries will be able to consolidate their administrative and judicial capacity.

For the proper operation of the single market, the safety and health of the public, the protection of the environment, the supervision of the EU's external borders and the careful management of Community funds, the Commission, during the initial years following accession, will have to:

- maintain a permanent dialogue with the new Member States to identify and analyse problems encountered and provide the most appropriate solutions,

- wherever necessary initiate and pursue infringement proceedings,

- where necessary propose and then implement new Community co-operation measures to provide the new Member States with the support necessary so that they will have the means to comply with their obligations under the Treaties.

1.5. Purpose of the Communication

In July 2001, a Working Document [1] was submitted to the European Parliament to provide an overview of the Commission's plans and progress made, for the smooth integration of the new Member States in the administrative structures of the Union. It announced that the Commission was in the process of assessing how current activities would be affected in the post-accession phase, and the implications on staffing levels.

[1] "Administrative Preparations for Enlargement: Objectives and Practical Arrangements", European Commission Working Document submitted to the European Parliament in response to the Resolution of the European Parliament on the draft general budget of the European Union for the financial year 2001, July 2001.

This communication identifies the changes enlargement will have upon the Commission's activities and the additional human resources required to ensure the best possible matching between the activities and human resources after accession. It outlines the general orientations and the effects of enlargement for human resources by groups of policy areas and by job profile ('métier'). The underlying analysis and related estimates constitute a building block for the Commissions future recruitment strategy, for negotiations of the adaptation of Financial Perspectives for the enlarged Union, and the general framework for future Annual Policy Strategy cycles and Preliminary Draft Budgets.

Begin preparations in 2003

Making a success of enlargement means that on day one after accession the Commission must be in a position to assume its new responsibilities. Some of these responsibilities will involve tasks that will increase gradually until the full impact is felt after a few years.

But for others, the workload resulting from accession will be at its maximum right from the start. This will apply, for instance, to the language services. It will also apply to the management of essential Community policies and programmes, in particular the Structural Funds and the Common Agricultural Policy. Being ready by 2004 means making preparations in 2003, i.e. making use of 2003 to recruit and train the necessary staff, identify potential start-up problems in the new Member States for the policies and programmes concerned and define the appropriate way of minimising risks for each case.

In its Annual Policy Strategy decision for 2003 the Commission estimated at 500 posts its priority human resources requirements to undertake its essential activities in preparation for enlargement in 2003. In this connection it should be borne in mind that the ceiling of heading 5 of the financial perspective for 2003 may prove inadequate to cover the additional resources required to prepare for enlargement.

The 500 'posts' necessary in 2003 are not additional to the estimated staff needs after enlargement, as staff recruited in 2003 will continue in their jobs in 2004 and beyond. It is therefore a down payment, which is needed to adjust the Commission's staff to cover its new activities in 2003.

The assessment has been both thoughtful of the challenges ahead and rigorous in its approach by applying best practices across the board. To be able to provide sound estimates up to 2008, a number of working hypotheses have been retained. On the one hand, that provides a rational and controlled framework for the assessment; on the other hand, that tends to simplify the expected evolution of Community policies. Changes in the baseline scenario will entail an adaptation of estimates.

That is why the precise time profile of future Commission's demands for additional human resources over the period will be further fine-tuned in each preliminary draft budget, following the annual policy strategy of the Commission.

2. Scenario

2.1. Working hypothesis

During the European Council of Laeken in December 2001, the EU Heads of State and Government identified the candidate countries whichcould be ready to complete accession negotiations in 2002 in order to join the EU in 2004 in time to take part in the next European elections [2], if the present rate of progress of the negotiations and reforms in the candidate states is maintained.

[2] "If the current rate of negotiations and reforms in candidate countries is maintained, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic and Slovenia could be ready".

The working scenario for assessing the impact of enlargement is thus built upon the following assumptions:

* Up to 10 countries, with up to 10 new official languages, will join the European Union as from January 1, 2004. The working hypothesis is that at least 9 new languages will become official languages of the EU.

* Policies, programmes and delivery systems will not change. Only changes already approved at the appropriate decision-making level have been taken into account.

* The starting point for the level of human resources reflects the 2002 situation.

The estimation of human resource needs is based upon the complete phasing in/out of the relevant activity or tasks after enlargement (cruising speed). It does not take into account savings from gradual phasing in, or one-off set up costs. Cruising speed will be reached at different points in time depending upon activity. However, it has been assessed that phasing in will be completed around 2008, taking also into account the institution's capability to absorb new staff.

The extrapolation of the ten New Member States scenario to 2008, does not pre-judge in any way the date of accession of remaining candidate countries.

2.2. The general financial framework: Agenda 2000

The current financial framework (Agenda 2000), agreed by Heads of State and Government in 1999 in Berlin, was based on an accession scenario of six new Member States in 2002. The updated scenario with ten new Members States in 2004 is based on the Commission's information note on the global approach for the financial perspectives till 2006 [3].

[3] Information Note Common Financial Framework 2004-2006 for the Accession Negotiations, Communication from the Commission, SEC(2002) 102, 30.1.2002.

3. Methodology

3.1. Finding human resources 'drivers'

All tasks of the Commission have been classified around 200 meaningful and coherent activities, based on the Activity Based Budgeting (ABB) classification.

For those activities with either growing or decreasing intensity, the analysis has entailed:

* Identifying a meaningful resource 'driver', i.e. a measure of workload that is significant and representative for the entire activity (usually a trigger for the whole range of tasks in the activity). Examples of "resource drivers" are, according to the activities considered, the number of new Member States, the additional population, the additional budget to manage, etc.

* Looking at the level of human resources currently in place.

* Estimating the expected increases or decreases in the workload as a result of enlargement.

Changes in human resource requirements have been estimated in relation to the increase or decrease in the resource driver unless a better indicator was provided. In all cases economies of scale have been fully taken into account in estimating human resources needs.

Support activities - like internal human resources management, IT or general operational support - have been treated in two different ways:

* For activities where the level of human resources can be closely linked with operational activities (directly or indirectly), the level of resource required has been estimated based upon changes in those operational activities [4].

[4] For example the activity human resources management of each Service is directly related to the number of human resources available.

* For support activities where such a link does not exist, they have been treated as operational activities in their own right.

Account has been taken of the fact that possible economies of scale are likely to be larger than for those identified as operational activities.

3.2. The process

Based on an initial questionnaire the Commission services undertook a systematic review of the expected evolution of their activities after enlargement. After an in-depth analysis of the replies to the questionnaire, bilateral discussions were held with each individual Commission department to validate the information received. The information and related discussions formed the basis of a rigorous assessment of the estimated needs presented in this report. The assessment entailed:

(1) assessing the estimated change for each activity stemming from enlargement;

(2) estimating the impact on the related level of human resources;

(3) assessing possibilities for redeployments;

(4) quantifying the possible gap between estimated needs and existing human resources;

3.3. Screening demands

Initial replies of Commission departments already conformed to very strict guidelines. Nonetheless estimated needs for additional human resources exposed by services have subsequently been thoroughly screened on different levels.

Firstly, the factual criteria have been checked to ensure:

- that estimated needs from the different services have not been duplicated;

- that possible misunderstandings about concepts and terms are identified and clarified;

- consistency between the figures provided and the underlying justification.

Secondly, technical criteria have been checked to:

- ensure that possible economies of scale were fully exploited and accounted for;

- ensure that estimated needs from different departments for similar activities would be treated consistently and assessed by applying across-the-board best practices;

- ensure that estimated needs for activities where candidate countries already participate in programmes/actions, only take into account the additional workload;

- ensure that human resources already involved in enlargement-related activities (and that can be re-deployed after accession) are properly accounted for.

3.3.1. The linguistic services

From the beginning of the exercise it was clear that the largest impact of enlargement would be on the linguistic domain. Indeed, the linguistic services have identified the largest estimated needs for additional resources due to enlargement.

The Commission has decided to take into account the anticipated results of several initiatives that have, or are taking place to better manage costs in linguistic services (particularly translation). This has enabled the Commission to: align estimated needs on best practices; discount a more effective mix of internal and outside resources; and make use of the effects of a more widespread use of information technology.

This approach still ensures that the quality of interpretation and of translations and publication in the most important categories of documents is not compromised with the extension of the number of official languages.

As explained in section 2.1, the working scenario is built on the assumption that 9 new official languages would be used from 2004. Any additional official language would entail an increase of estimated human resources by around 200 FTE.

3.4. Definitions used for the estimates

3.4.1. Full Time Equivalent (FTE)

For the sake of simplicity, human resources have been defined as the existing mix of posts and outside personnel (2002 budget). The unit of measure is one full-time equivalent (FTE) person. The breakdown of human resources by type and source of financing has been made at an aggregate level.

3.4.2. Groupings of activities and 'métiers'

To provide a view of the Commission in an enlarged Union at cruising speed (say in 2008), the estimates expressed in this report have been sorted out by broad policy groupings, and by work profiles (métiers). In a few cases, activities do not contain a perfectly homogeneous set of tasks/jobs. Where this occurred, activities have been classified according to their dominant characteristics. Though not perfect, the classification proposed appears to be nonetheless sufficient to produce reliable and meaningful results.

Policy groupings reflect the headings of the current Financial Perspectives with some adjustments. Eight main groups of policies have thus been identified:

- Agriculture and fisheries (excluding SAPARD and structural interventions).

- Structural and cohesion actions (excluding ISPA, but including structural actions in the field of agriculture, fisheries and employment).

- Internal policies (including information activities, but excluding research and structural actions).

- External policies (excluding delegations in candidate countries).

- Pre-accession (including delegations in candidate countries, ISPA, SAPARD).

- Research.

- Support and co-ordination services.

- Linguistic services (including the Publication Office).

Job profiles (métiers) are meant to describe the main "type of work" that will be affected by enlargement. Five main groupings of work profiles have been identified:

- Human resources and budgetary management.

- Law making, monitoring and ensuring compliance of the acquis (hereafter defined as "law enforcement").

- Linguistic (translation/interpretation/publication).

- Programme management.

- Policy making and co-ordination.

4. Commission's human resources needs for enlargement

Estimates for net additional human resources are lower than simple extrapolations from the current situation in Commission departments, or the cumulated original demands advanced by departments themselves. The process leading to the final estimated needs is described in the next two sections.

4.1. Estimated needs

In their initial assessments, Commission departments expressed gross needs for reinforcements of around 5470 FTE and expected reductions of some 250 FTE. Net estimated needs thus stood at some 5220 additional human resources (FTE) to meet the estimated increases in workload, based on the accession of 10 new Member States and 9 additional official languages.

Some 41% (2157 FTE) of initial estimated needs concerned linguistic services. In decreasing order, the larger demands came from internal policies (33%, 1718 FTE) and support and co-ordination services (14%, 724 FTE) (see chart I).

A thorough screening of initial estimates allowed to better take into account the implementation of best practices across the board, discount demands not directly related to enlargement, identify of further possibilities for re-deployments, adjust expected evolution of appropriations for financial interventions to retained scenario.

Such a screening led to revised estimates, whose final result is that estimated gross reinforcements of expanding activities stand at more than 4800 FTE. Around 700 re-deployments and 4100 additional resources will satisfy these needs. It is also assumed that the equivalent of around 200 outside personnel currently working on pre-accession instruments (and financed on the so-called BA budget items) cannot be re-deployed and will have to be abandoned. Net additional resources thus stand at 3900 FTE (see chart II).

Compared to the present situation, the additional 3900 FTE represent an increase of around 13% of overall human resources (see chart VI below). The posts required in the Commission's establishment plans are 3550, of which 3400 for Part A of the budget and 150 in Part B (research), that is a combined 16% increase compared to the total number of posts authorised in the 2002 budget.

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4.2. Needs by type of additional human resources and source of financing required

The breakdown of the 3900 additional human resources by type and source of financing is the following:

* 3400 posts in the operational establishment plans (Part A of the budget), of which around 645 LA posts.

* 150 posts in the research establishment plans (Part B of the budget).

* Additional appropriations for around 560 outside personnel in Part A of the budget. This result discounts that appropriations for outside personnel in part A of the budget would grow in a linear way with establishment plan posts in part A. The exceptions are those appropriations related to outsourcing of part of linguistic services. These will have to grow markedly to achieve the envisaged cost-reduction management measures.

* Reduction in appropriations for the equivalent of 210 outside personnel currently financed in Part B of the budget (BA items of pre-accession instruments).

Table 2. Results by source of financing and type of human resources (number of posts or full-time equivalent - FTE )

>TABLE POSITION>

4.3. Phasing-in of new posts in Part A of the budget

The estimated needs made by Commission departments in terms of posts are highly front-loaded. Taking account of departments' needs, the phasing-in profile of new posts in previous enlargements, and the Institution's absorption capacity in terms of new recruits, it is proposed that new staff should be phased-in over a period of five years according to the indicative profile shown in the table below.

The underlying assumption is that phasing in of all the net 3900 additional human resources, including appropriations for outside personnel, will follow the same pattern of establishment plan posts in part A of the budget.

>TABLE POSITION>

* Including the 500 posts (or equivalent appropriations) requested for the year 2003 as announced in the annual policy strategy and preliminary draft budget for 2003.

However, a certain flexibility as for the time profile of future demands of establishment plan posts may prove necessary to take into account the Commission's actual capability to absorb new staff, in particular in 2004. Each Preliminary Draft Budget, following the Annual Policy Strategy decision, will specify type (i.e. outside personnel and permanent posts) and number of requested of additional human resources and indicative break down by policy area. In order to be able to fill all the necessary posts the Commission may use appropriate measures (like the use of temporary agents on permanent posts) during a transitional phase.

5. Budgetary implications for Heading 5 (Administration)

The inter-institutional agreement [5] (I.I.A.) envisaged a gradual increase (topping up) in the ceiling of Heading 5 (administrative expenditure) up to 450 MEUR (at 1999 prices) two years after accession for 6 countries. With accession now expected in 2004 (whereas the I.I.A. originally foresaw accession to take place in 2002), the corresponding level for Heading 5 would be reached in 2006.

[5] Accord interinstitutionell entre le Parlement européen, le Conseil et la Commission du 6 mai 1999 sur la discipline budgétaire et l'amélioration de la procédure budgétaire.

In Agenda 2000, the amount foreseen in the financial framework under Heading 8 'Enlargement' for administrative expenditure related to the accession of six new Member States was determined in accordance with the corresponding amounts that were withheld at the occasion of the previous enlargement in 1995. The calculation was then based on the normal participation of the new Member States in the Institutions and their staff. Furthermore, the additional need for interpreting and translating services was quantified.

The additional administrative expenditure related to the possible accession of four additional Member States was calculated using the same approach. In practice, the coefficients used were based on the number of votes the new Member States would obtain in the EU decisional process.

This leads to the an indicative 'topping-up' of 612 MEUR in 2006 set out in the Common Financial Framework 2004-2006. The topping-up has been taken as the basis used for determining the maximum number of posts for the Commission (Part A of the budget) compatible with the Financial Perspectives 2000-2006.

The Common Financial Framework 2004-2006 for a Union of 25 Member States implies additional appropriations in Heading 5 that allow the financing of some 2300 additional establishment plan posts (part A of the Budget) [6]. These additional appropriations are thus compatible with a reasonable phasing-in period of additional posts up to 2006. Phasing in of outside personnel will follow the same pattern and appropriations in Part A of the budget corresponding to around 400 FTE would be available. The remaining posts and outside personnel would be phased-in in 2007 and 2008.

[6] The same figure is arrived at following two different approaches. The first one by applying the expected increase in the ceiling of Heading 5 in 2006 (+12% at 1999 prices) to the number of current posts in the Commission establishment plan (including OLAF and OPOCE, but excluding Research). The second one based on the share (31%) of appropriations for Commission staff remuneration (Chapter A-11, including other budget items more closely connected with posts but excluding pensions) as a percentage of total appropriations in Part A of the budget and dividing it by the average cost for an official.

However, the overall needs concerning Heading 5 will have to take into account not only those of the Commission but also the needs of the other Institutions, whose global estimates are not yet fully available. In this regard, the ceiling of Heading 5 in 2006 will have to be re-assessed in light of actual needs to be phased in and of the room of manoeuvre within the overall ceiling of the current financial perspectives

6. human resources needs of the commission in context

6.1. Estimated needs of the Commission and of other Institutions

The Commission estimates compare favourably with the available assessments of other Institutions.

The report prepared by the administrative services of the European Parliament, under the authority of Vice President Mr. Guido Podestà, and approved by the Bureau in early 2001, foresees additional staffing needs of 1240 new posts (+29%). The additional posts ought to be reduced subsequently to 842 (+20%), with posts being released through natural wastage and through early or special retirement measures.

In March 2002, the Council's General Secretariat [7] estimated its additional staffing needs at 674 establishment plan posts (876 including a "reserve for the future"), corresponding to 25% (32% including the reserve) of current staff. These estimates are based on ten new official languages.

[7] Report on the Administrative consequences for the General Secretariat of the Council of the Enlargement of the European Union, prepared by the Task Force on Enlargement, under the Authority of the Deputy Secretary General, 12 March 2002.

In November 2001, the report [8] of the Secretaries General on the evolution of Heading 5 mentioned the following preliminary figures: 608 (+56%) additional posts for the Court of Justice and Tribunal of First Instance; 221 (+56%) additional posts for the Court of Auditors.

[8] Rapport des Secrétaires Généraux concernant l'évolution pluriannuelle de la rubrique 5 et les économies additionnelles potentielles liées à la coopération Inter-Institutionnelle, November 2001.

6.2. Current estimates compared with previous enlargements

The estimated needs are based on a thorough assessment at the level of each individual activity, taking into account in particular the increased complexity of tasks in a Union of up to 25 members. It is nevertheless worth comparing the result with that of the last two enlargements. Although the method used to estimate needs related to the forthcoming enlargement is different from previous ones, the order of magnitude of estimated needs is comparable.

For the accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden the Commission requested 864 new posts in the establishment plans in Part A of the budget (excluding OPOCE) of which 314 (36%) for linguistic services and 550 (64%) for all other activities. On average, that corresponds to more or less 290 posts per new Member State, of which 110 posts for linguistic services and 180 for the remaining activities. Some 30% of all new posts were authorised in the first year of accession (1995), the other four annual tranches being phased in over the period 1996-1999 as follows: 22% in 1996; 22% in 1997; 13% in 1998 and 13% in 1999.

In the previous enlargement (Spain and Portugal), 695 additional posts were foreseen (excluding OPOCE), i.e. almost 350 posts per country. Some 300 posts (43%) were for linguistic services and 395 (57%) for the remaining activities. On average, that corresponds to 350 new posts for each new Member State with some 150 and 200 posts for linguistic services and for other tasks, respectively. About 45% of all new posts were authorised in the first year of accession, some 33% in the second year, and the remaining 22% in the third year of accession.

The estimated increase of some 3400 additional posts in the Commission's establishment plans corresponds to an average of 340 posts per new Member State.

7. community policies and related activities affected by enlargement

7.1. Developments by main policy groupings

The analysis by policy groupings shows needs are concentrated on operational policies that are in line with political priorities and will benefit directly the citizens of the enlarged Union.

Special efforts have been made to keep estimated needs for linguistic services to the necessary minimum level that allows compliance with the principle of multi-linguism. With the number of official languages expected to increase at least from 11 to 20, it is no surprise that the estimated increase of human resources for linguistic services is the largest (around 41% compared to the present situation).

Apart from the linguistic services, in relative terms the highest percentage increases compared to the present situation relate to structural actions (+36%), followed by internal policies (+20%) and agriculture and fisheries (+19%). Support and co-ordination services are expected to grow by around 14%, including Cabinets and support for the additional Commissioners. Current activities related to pre-accession will decrease by around (70%) (see chart III and IV).

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7.1.1. Internal Policies

Conception of policy and legislation will be affected by enlargement. A much wider public of stakeholders will have to be consulted on policy initiatives and legislative proposals will have to cater for additional sensitivities.

From the day of accession, the Community acquis will be applicable in new Member States and the whole legislative process will have to evolve and adapt to the new conditions.

The largest impact will be for ensuring compliance with the acquis (law enforcement in short). The systems and procedures will automatically extend to all Member States [9] in domains as diverse and complex as environment and competition. Direct activities of inspections can also be considered as a specific way to operate law enforcement [10].

[9] The number of Member States largely determines the caseload.

[10] E.g. Food and Veterinary Office, Euratom Safeguard Office, Fishery Inspectors

All programmes and actions will be open to new Member States. However, the expected increase of appropriations is relatively contained. Furthermore, some programmes are already open to accession countries, though not always all of them participate and their intensity of participation is lower compared to current Member States.

Estimated needs for Internal Policies stand at 1718 FTE. Considering the array of policies that need to be implemented across 25 Member States and the current level of resources, it represents a relatively modest increase (+20%) of human resources.

7.1.2. Structural and Cohesion Actions

Structural and Cohesion actions are the policies that will have the most immediate impact on the standards of living of citizens in the new Member States. They are expected to contribute to a rapid convergence of their economies towards the Union average. Funds provided under the Structural and cohesion policy have to meet clear community criteria and are also a powerful instrument to implement a whole range of policy priorities of the Union.

According to current legislation, most of the accession countries' regions will be eligible for the support given to less developed regions (objective 1). Appropriations are expected to increase more than in any other area both in relative and absolute terms.

The management system for the programmes is decentralised. This implies that relatively few additional staff will be able to deal with important increases in appropriations and estimated additional needs stand at 325 FTE (+36%).

The assumption is that after accession the remaining candidate countries in the negotiation process will continue to benefit from the ISPA funds. As for current Member States, the estimate is based on a situation of status quo (current level of financial interventions) also after accession. Finally, the relative weight of Cohesion policy compared to Structural policy is expected to grow.

7.1.3. Agriculture and fisheries

The Common Agriculture Policy will have an important role in the enlarged Union. With accession, the growth in EU population employed in agriculture is estimated to be around 55%. Current activities concerning the pre-accession instrument in the field of rural development (SAPARD) will be moved under the umbrella of mainstream agricultural policy.

As in the case of Structural and Cohesion actions, relatively few additional staff will be able to deal with important increases in appropriations thanks to the decentralised system for the management of programmes [11] and estimated additional needs stand at 189 additional FTE (+19%).

[11] Even though the increase in the number of systems to monitor (i.e. the number of Member States) has a clear impact on some specific tasks like clearing of accounts.

7.1.4. Research

Most research programmes are already open to accession countries. In addition, the 6th Framework Program foresees an even larger involvement of candidate countries before enlargement and greater concentration of projects. The evolution of activities and estimated human resources needs for enlargement result in a modest increase of 150 FTE or (+4%). Estimated needs are concentrated in direct Research actions to accompany Community policies [12].

[12] For example with assistance to the Euratom Safeguard Office to develop tracking and accounting systems for fissile material in nuclear deposits.

7.1.5. External Policies

For external relations the impact will be more limited. The main changes concern trade policy and defence measures. Estimated needs stand at around 76 FTE or (+1%).

7.1.6. Pre-accession (including delegations in accession countries, ISPA and SAPARD)

Pre-accession activities relating to the 10 new Member States will progressively decrease until the phasing-out of Phare has been completed. Accordingly, staff in Delegations of the 10 candidate countries and most of the staff at headquarters will be re-deployed or cease activity, with a decrease of 759 FTE from the original level (-70%). Pre-accession instruments will still apply to the remaining candidate countries in the negotiation process.

7.1.7. Linguistic services

The relatively large increase (1582 FTE or +41%) of the linguistic services should not be misinterpreted. The natural tendency would be for a linear growth in line with the number of official languages (+82%). It is only thanks to the deliberate decision of applying best practices and anticipated savings of reforms that needs have been kept at much more modest level.

7.1.8. Support and co-ordination services

As many resources as possible should go on the front line of service delivery to the outside world. However, also support and co-ordination services have an important role to play, as part of a fully-fledged strategy to make enlargement a success [13]. Their adequate staffing is important for the smooth running of operations and estimated needs stand at 619 FTE (+14%).

[13] Activities include stepping up recruitment process, overhauled building policy, reinforced anti-fraud and audit capabilities as well as policy co-ordination in a Union of 25 Member States.

It is also worth stressing that estimates include direct support to private offices of additional Commissioners.

7.2. Developments by main job profiles (métiers)

The future outlook of the Commission puts the stress on the legislative aspects of the work of the Institution, followed by the policy aspects with administrative support that follows the global increase in resources. The linguistic job profile (translation and interpretation) will increase more than any other area to comply with multi-linguism. Finally, the level of human resources devoted to programme management will remain substantially stable.

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7.2.1. Law making, maintenance and enforcement

Law making, maintenance and enforcement represent the work profile whose activity will undergo the most important evolution, after the linguistic one. It is not a complete surprise since one of the key variables to consider in assessing workload in most phases of legislation is the number of Member States. This is particularly relevant for the law enforcement phase. However, according to the tenets of good governance, the number of stakeholders and sensitivities that have to be taken into consideration will also influence the formulation/maintenance phase. Estimated needs stand at 1098 additional FTE (+25%).

7.2.2. Programme management

It is estimated that human resources devoted to programme management will remain by and large stable with enlargement (64 FTE or +1%). This is a somewhat surprising result that requires qualification.

Programme management estimated needs are in fact for some 650 additional FTE. These additional needs for expanding activities are for a large share satisfied through the re-deployment of resources currently working on pre-accession instruments (see Chart VII). Estimated needs may look modest, but it should be recalled that the increase of appropriations for Internal Policies is also modest and that many programmes are already open to accession countries (notably in Research). Reinforcements are thus concentrated for a large part in agriculture/fisheries and in structural actions where programme management is largely decentralised to Member States.

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7.2.3. Policy making

Policy-making will also have an important evolution that reflects the need to include new realities. Policy formulation will gain from taking into account the wealth of positive histories and cultures that the new Member States will bring along. Estimated needs stand at 641 FTE (+8%). Also in this case actual gross reinforcement for expanding activities is more important (around 800 FTE), but will be partly compensated by reductions in pre-accession related activities.

7.2.4. Administrative and budgetary support

Adequate staffing of administrative and budgetary support work profiles, both in operational and support services, is necessary to maintain a coherent and performing whole. Estimated needs stand at 672 FTE (+11%).

7.2.5. Linguistic

As already recalled above (see section 7.1.7.) special efforts have allowed to limit the increase of linguistic work profiles (translation/interpretation/publication) within manageable dimensions. Estimated needs stand at 1425 FTE (+44%).

8. Conclusions

Enlargement constitutes a major challenge for all the Union Institutions. The Commission has carried out a thorough assessment of it activities and the human resources it will need in an enlarged Union. The assessment has been both thoughtful of the challenges ahead and rigorous in its approach by applying best practices across the board, and taking into account possible economies of scale and re-deployments. After the in-depth screening, overall needs amount to 3900 net additional full time equivalent persons. Such a global increase is thus limited to 13% of all existing available human resources and 16% in terms of establishment plan posts. These estimates are based on at least 9 additional official languages. Any additional official language would require 200 additional human resources.

This is a remarkable achievement and compares favourably with all of the relevant indicators for growth of the Union, previous enlargements and available estimates of other Institutions. It is also the strict necessary minimum for the Commission to be able to properly carry out its tasks. The result implies a net increase of around 3400 additional posts in the establishment plans of the Commission (Part A of the budget), of which 2300 new posts to be phased in by 2006. The time profile of the phasing in is compatible with the evolution of the ceiling of Heading 5 of the Financial Perspectives as set out in the common financial framework 2004-2006, and with the Commission's absorption capacity.