ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (79)622
Vol.1979/0210

Disclaimer
Conformément aurèglement (CEE, Euratom) n°354/83 duConseil du1erfévrier 1983
concernant l'ouverture aupublic desarchives historiques delaCommunauté économique
européenne etdelaCommunauté européenne del'énergie atomique (JOL43du15.2.1983,
p.1),telquemodifié par lerèglement (CE, Euratom) n°1700/2003 du22septembre 2003
(JOL243du27.9.2003, p.1),cedossier estouvert aupublic. Lecaséchéant, lesdocuments
classifiés présents dans cedossier ontétédéclassifiés conformément àl'article 5dudit
règlement.
Inaccordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No354/83 of1February 1983
concerning theopening tothepublic ofthehistorical archives oftheEuropean Economic
Community andtheEuropean Atomic Energy Community (OJL43,15.2.1983, p.1),as
amended byRegulation (EC, Euratom) No1700/2003 of22September 2003 (OJL243,
27.9.2003, p.1),this fileisopen tothepublic. Where necessary, classified documents inthis
filehave been declassified inconformity with Article 5oftheaforementioned regulation.
InÜbereinstimmung mitderVerordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr.354/83 desRates vom 1.
Februar 1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft undderEuropäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L43vom 15.2.1983,
S.1),geändert durch dieVerordnung (EG, Euratom) Nr.1700/2003 vom 22.September 2003
(ABI. L243vom 27.9.2003, S.1),istdiese Datei derÖffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit
erforderlich, wurden dieVerschlusssachen indieser Datei inÜbereinstimmung mitArtikel 5
dergenannten Verordnung freigegeben.

COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(79)622 final
Brussels /12November 1979
Report onexperience gained from cattle production
surveys andforward estimates bytheMember States
intheperiod 1976-1978
(second report submitted bytheCommission tothe
Council andtheEuropean Parliament inimplementation
ofArticle 10ofCouncil Directive 73/132/EEC of
15May 1973 )
/ *i- -<A
< ■ •••
: Λ- <
i'*" '-4
1 S':* jv' . •v> s.i
V S* y
C0M(79 )622 final

Abstract
Thisreportfollowsupadiscussionbetween "thedelegatesfromtheMember
StatesandtheCommissiondepartmentsconcernedundertheaegisofthe
WorkingGroupon"AnimalProductsStatistics".InthisreporttheCommission
mainlystressesitsinterestin:
1)maintainingthequalityofthesamplesselectedforthelivestocksurvey;
2)adheringtothetimelimitslaiddowninDirective73/132/EECparticularly
forthemonthlyproductionstatistics }
3)improvingthebreakdownintocalvesandadultcattleintheproduction
estimatesandextendingtheforecastperiod?
4)harmonizingregionalstatistics.
* * *
Article10oftheCouncilDirectiveof15May1973(73/132/EEC),supplemented
byDirective78/53/EECof19December1$77^\statesthat:
"theCommissionshallsubmittotheEuropeanParliamentandtotheCouncilevery
threeyearsandforthefirsttimein1976areportontheexperiencegained
fromthesurveysandtheforwardestimatesprovidedforinthisDirective".
Thisreportonexperiencegainedintheperiod1976-1978isthesecondreport
onthissubjectsincethefirstCommunitysurveyoncattleproduction was
carriedoutbytheMemberStatesinDecember1973"^.InittheCommission^
stressesthemainpointsintheworkingdocument,drawnupbyitsowndepartment
asabasisforanexchangeofviewsamongtheMemberStateswhichwasheldin
June1979aspartoftheworkoftheAgricultural StatisticsCommittee.
I.Experiencegained.
II.Commission'sproposals.
1)0.J-L153of9.6.1973,page25
2)O.JL16of20.1.1978rpage20
3)InitialreportCOM(76)-502finalof29.9.1976
•••/•••

-3-
I.EXPERIENCE GAINED
1.Referencedateforlivestocksurveys
Asfrom1973"theMemberStatesshallcarryoutastatisticalsurveyoftotal
cattlenumbers,usingasthereferencedateanydayinDecember"(73/132/EEC,
Art.1).
Asfrom1978*theyalsocarryouteachyear"anintermediate surveyofthe
bovinelivestock,usinganydayinMayorJuneasthereferencedate"(78/53/EEC,
Art.2(1)).
Thereferencedatesforthesesurveysdifferfromcountryto'country,dueto
•nationaldifferencesinsurveyprogrammes.Verylittleexperiencehasbeen
gainedasyetwiththeMay/Junesurveys,butinfuturethereferenceperiod
fortheintermediate surveyshouldbereduced.
2.Qualityofthesurveys
ExhaustivesurveysarecarriedoutinBelgiumandtheFederalRepublicof
GermanyinDecember;in"th»Netherlands ,in-Belgium,Luxembourg,-theUnited
Kingdom,inIreland(once -every5years)andinDenmarkinMay/June.Ofthose
MemberStateswhichuserandomsamplingonlytheFederalRepublioofGermany
regularlyinformsEURDSTATofitscalculations ofsamplingerrors.Thusthe
CommissionisunabletocheckwhetherArticle4(3)ofDirective73/132/EEC
isbeingimplemented althoughthereliability
oftheresults,whichareessentialasabasisforforwardestimatesandfor
managingthemarkets,dependsonhowrepresentative thesamplesare.
UnderArticle1(2)ofDirective73/53/EEC,theMemberStatesmust,ifnecessary,
takeappropriate measurestoassesserrorsofobservation.Inpracticeonly
twocountries,viz.BelgiumandtheFederalRepublicofGermany,carryouta
regularcheckonerrorsofobservation.
•••/•••

-4-
3.DerogationsprovidedforinDirective78/53/EEC
Italyhasnotrequestedfurtherextension "beyond.I98Oofthederogation
providedforinArticle1(1)ofDirective78/53/EEC,whichstatesthat
samplingerrorsofupto1.5$ofthetotalnumberoflivestockandupto
2.51°ofthetotalnumberofcowsareacceptableforthisMemberState.
Sincetheexperiencegainedfromtheintermediate May/Junesurveysisstill
verylimited,sincethefirstwasconductedin1978,theCommissioncannot
yetmakeajudgementonwhetherthederogationprovidedforinArticle2(3)
ofDirective78/53/EECisjustified.Thisallowsthenumbeisforcertain
categoriesofcattletobeestimatedonthebasisofthedatafromnational
surveys•
4»Timelimitsfornotification offorwardestimatesandsurveydata
Forwardestimatesforproductionandprovisionallivestocksurveydataare
availableforthemeetingsoftheWorkingGroup,whicharealwaysheldin
FebruaryandOctober.ThusthetimelimitslaiddownintheDirectiveare
generallymetasregardstheDecembersurvey.Theywerealsometforthe
1978intermediate survey.Ontheotherhand,thefinaldata,brokendownby
regionandsizeclassesofthelivestock,aregenerallynotifiedverylate.
TheMemberStatesmustforwardtotheCommissionthemonthlystatisticaldata
"notlaterthan6weeksafterthemonthtowhichtheyrefer".Duringtheperiod
1976-1978thetimetakentonotifymonthlystatisticswasregularlylonger--than
2monthsforFranceandItaly.TheNetherlandstookconsiderablylesstime,
andsodidDenmark,whichforwardedprovisionaldatawhichwereveryclose•
tothefinaldata.ItisexceptionalfortheotherMemberStatestotake
longerthan2months.
5.Harmonizeddefinitionofproduction
Duringtheperiod1976–78considerable progresswasmadeonharmonizingthe
monthlystatisticsforcattleproduction,largelybecauseofaprecise
"definitionofproduction",adaptedtotheNIMEXEnomenclature andpublished
inDirective78/53/EEC.
•••/•••

I
-5-
External trade inlive animals at -present covers allanimals ,including
"breeding animals andpure-bred animals ,although theMember States continue
toprovide additional data onexternal trade inanimals forslaughter#
Asregards slaughterings ,thepossibility should "bestudied ofbreaking down
adult male cattle into "young cattle "and "adult cattle ",rather than into
"bulls "and "bullocks "inaccordance with thecategories laid down in
Article 6(2)ofDirective 73/132/EEC..
6.Forecast deviations
Since theMember States didnotgive asystematic breakdown ofproduction
forecasts into categories andhalf-year periods before 1978f EUROSTAT can
calculate forecast deviations only forthewhole year 'sproduction ofcalves
andalladult cattle .Theforecasts made intheFebruary ofthose years on
thebasis oftheDecember surveys deviated "byless than 1$from theactual
figures fortotal cattle production intheCommunity asawhole .Thebreakdown
into calves andadult cattle ismuch less reliable .In1976 and1977 "the
October forecasts didnotimprove theFebruary forecasts ,butin1978 (perhaps
reflecting thefirst beneficial effects oftheCommunity survey inMay/June!?)
theOctober forecasts forthe current year turned outtobevery good .
Inconclusion ,
a)itwould appear that thedeviations between theforecast andactual figures
fortotal cattle production arebecoming smaller both fortheCoiprunity asa
whole and inmost cases foreach oftheMember States ;
b)itisstill toosoon toassess thequality oftheforecasts based onthe^
May/June surveys ,buttheinitial results arevery encouraging ;
\
c)aspecial effort should bemade toimprove thebreakdown ofproduction
into thevarious categories ,which inparticular will give better forecasts
for calves.'
7»Financing animal population surveys
Theexpenses incurred bytheMember States when conducting theDecember cattle
survey were covered during theperiod 1973-1978 bythepayment ofastandard
amount from thebudget oftheEuropean Communities .
Financial assistance with thecosts oftheintermediate surveys should be
provided bytheEuropean Communities fortheperiod 1978–1980 only .
•••/•••

II.COMMISSION'SPROPOSALS
1.Subdivisionofanimalsoflessthan12monthsintoagegroups
Toobtainabetterideaofthesignificanceofcalvesinproductionforecasts
theCommissionsuggeststhatthecategory"cattleoflessthan12months"in
Article3(1)ofDirective73/132/EECshouldbereplacedby"cattleofless
thansixmonths"and"cattleunderoneyearbutnottindersixmonths".
2.Extensionoftheforecastperiod
TheCommissiondepartmentsresponsibleformanagingthemarketmusthavethe
productionforecastsforthefollowingcalendaryearbyautumnsothatthey
canpreparepriceproposalsandtheannualreportontheagriculturalsituation
intheCommunity,anddrawupannualestimatedbalancesheetsofyoungmale
cattleforfatteningandoffrozenbeefandvealforprocessing.
3«Breakdownoflivestockbybreedorintendeduse
Abreakdownofbovinelivestockaccordingtothemainusesforwhichtheyhave
beenbredcouldbeusefulforfollowingtheincidenceofmilk/meatsubstitution
andforimprovingmedium-term forecasts#
Thisbreakdowncouldbecalculatedeverytwoyearseitherfromthedatafrom
oneoftheCommunitycattlesurveysoronthebasisofnon–harmonizednational
data. -
4#Inordertocontinuewiththeworkofharmonizing regionalstatistics ,which
hasbeguninthemilksectorunderDirective78/320/EEC,theCommissionwould
likethecattleintheUnitedKingdomtobesubdividedby"standardregions".
5.ThederogationprovidedforinArticle2(3)ofDirective78/53/EECcould
beextendeduntil1983,i«e#afterthenextreportonexperiencegainedfrom
statisticalsurveysoncattlehadbeensubmittedtotheEuropeanParliament
andtheCouncil.

-7-
With"benefitoftheexperiencegainedduringtheperiod1976–1978the
Commissionwillembodythemainpointsoftheaboveproposals 1,3,4and
5inanewdefinitionofthecategoriesgiveninArticle3(1)ofDirective
73/132/EEC,whichitwillsubmitasaproposaltotheStandingCommitteefor
Agricultural Statistics,andwillalsoforwardtotheEuropeanParliament
andtheCouncilaproposalforanadditionalDirectivespecifyingabreak­
downofcattlebybreedorintendeduse,amendmentoftheregionalsubdivisions
providedforinArticle5(2)ofDirective73/132/EEC,andanextensionofthe
derogationprovidedforinArticle2(3)ofDirective78/53/EEC,Lastly,
throughtheWorkingGroup"AnimalProductsStatistics",theCommissionwill
trytobringtheMemberStatesroundgraduallytoprovidingproduction
forecastsforthecalendaryearfollowingthelatestsurvey#
* * * *