ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(75)368
Vol.1975/0148

Disclaimer
Conformément aurèglement(CEE,Euratom)n°354/83duConseildu1erfévrier1983
concernantl'ouvertureaupublicdesarchiveshistoriquesdelaCommunauté économique
européenneetdelaCommunautéeuropéennedel'énergieatomique(JOL43du15.2.1983,
p.1),telquemodifiéparlerèglement(CE,Euratom)n°1700/2003du22septembre2003
(JOL243du27.9.2003,p.1),cedossierestouvertaupublic.Lecaséchéant,lesdocuments
classifiésprésentsdanscedossierontétédéclassifiésconformément àl'article5dudit
règlement.
InaccordancewithCouncilRegulation(EEC,Euratom)No354/83of1February1983
concerningtheopeningtothepublicofthehistoricalarchivesoftheEuropeanEconomic
CommunityandtheEuropeanAtomicEnergyCommunity(OJL43,15.2.1983,p.1),as
amendedbyRegulation(EC,Euratom)No1700/2003of22September2003(OJL243,
27.9.2003,p.1),thisfileisopentothepublic.Wherenecessary,classifieddocumentsinthis
filehavebeendeclassified inconformitywithArticle5oftheaforementioned regulation.
InÜbereinstimmung mitderVerordnung(EWG,Euratom)Nr.354/83desRatesvom1.
Februar1983überdieFreigabederhistorischen ArchivederEuropäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft undderEuropäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI.L43vom15.2.1983,
S.1),geändertdurchdieVerordnung(EG,Euratom)Nr.1700/2003vom22.September2003
(ABI.L243vom27.9.2003,S.1),istdieseDateiderÖffentlichkeitzugänglich.Soweit
erforderlich,wurdendieVerschlusssachen indieserDateiinÜbereinstimmung mitArtikel5
dergenanntenVerordnungfreigegeben.

COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEEN COMHUNITIES
COM(75)368 final
Brussels,11July1975
COMMUNICATION FROMTHECOMMISSION TOTHECOUNCIL
pupdatingoftheshortandshorttomediumtermcirri,
foragricultural marketspublishedin"TheStateof
AgricultureintheCommunity,1974Report".
(COM(74)2000Finalof27.11.74
PartIparagraph13)
C0M(75)368final

-1-
Index Page
IIntroduction 2
IISummaryofgeneraleconomicforecasts 3
IIIShortandmediumtoshorttermoutlook,
sectorbysector 5
-Meat 5
-Beefandveal 5
«-Pigaeat 6
-EggsandPoultry 7
-Iuilk 7
-cercals 10
-proteinfoodstuffs 13
-sugar 15
-oilseedsandoliveoil 15
-wine 17
-tobacco 17
-hops 18
-seed 18
-potatoes 19
-fruitandvegotables 19
IV.Projectionofproductionandconsumptionofagricultural
productsfor"1977"• 21

DTTFOJXJCTIC gT
.' 1ForthefirsttheCommissionpublishedforecastsforthevarious
agricultural parketsforthecoming12-24monthsinits1974Reportonthe
stateofagricultureintheCommunity.Atthattime,theCommissionstated
itsintentiontobringtheseforecastsuptodateinaboutsixmonthsandto
publishthenewestimatesasasupplementtothe1974report.This
communication containstheup-datedshortandshorttomedium-termforecasts.
Beforepresentingthiscommunication totheCouncil,theCommissioncarried
outpreparatorymeetings,bothwiththeDirectorGeneralsofthenational
MinistriesofAgriculture,andwithanumberofoutsideexperts,specialists
inagricultural forecastsandprojections .Inthesemeetings,attentionwas
focussedparticularly onthefollowingfoursectors:meat,dairyproducts,
cerealsandproteins.
Finally,theCommissioncomparedtheresultsofthestudyithadhadm^de
on"projectionsoftheproductionandconsumptionofagriculturalproducts
in1977interpolatedforthefinalyears,withtheactualresultspf
themarketingyearsinquestion.Takingaccountofdisparitiesnoted,the
Commissioncalculatednewestimatesfor1976and1977,whichappearin
thiscommunication .

-3-
TT.SUMMARY OFGHSTERALjEC OITGTIO FORECASTS '1,-Y
Asindicated initslatest quarterly report ontheeconomic situation inthe
Community ,theCommission considers itto "bedifficult atthemoment to
evaluate with anygreat precision theeconomic outlook fortherest ofthis
year .Theending oftherundown ofstocks ,andespecially themeasures
which have "been introduced torevive theeconomic situation ,are "basic
conditions allowing thehope that agradual recovery ofeconomic activity
intheCommunity .However ,itisnotyetknown when andtowhat extent
consumers andinvestors will abandon their present cautious approach .Whilst
thecontribution expected from therecovery ofexports will befairly limited
atleast until towards .theendoftheyear .Inthese circumstances ,real
gross domesiic product oftheoftheCommunity in1975 asawhole isno
longer forecast tobeashigh astheprevious year 'slevel . .Itshould in
addition beemphasized that lasting steady growth andagradula reduction of
unemployment canonly beobtained 'ifthere isanappreciable slowing inthe
rise inprices inthose countries where itremains excessive .
Although inflationary trends areeasing insome Member States ,therise in
prices andcosts will scarcely slow down inannual average terms inthe
Community asawhole ;notuntil towards theendoftheyear istherise in
consumer prices likely tobebrought down toarate ofaround 10fo.

Therearesomeindicationsthatthesharpestphaseofthedownswinginworld
economicactivityisnowover*Arecoveryinactivityisexpectedinthe
latterpartofthisyearinthemajorcountries,whichshouldgatherstrength
during1976and"beexperienced moregenerallybythesmallercountries.
However,for1975asawholetherecould"beasubstantialdropofabout2$
intherealgrossnationalproductofthedevelopedeconomiesoutsidethe
Community,comparedwithafallof1foin1974•Unemploymentislikelyto
continuetorisethroughouttherestofthisyearandinto1976giventhe
considerable marginsofsparecapacitynowexisting

-5-
III .SHORT-AND MEDIUM TOSHORT-TERM OUTLOOK ,SECTOR BYSECTOR -
Meat Sector
A.Beef and Veal
According tothestatistical survey carried outinDecember
197^i theCommunity cattle population hadrisen by0.5%over
theDecember 1973 level .Thenumber ofcalves ,onthe other
hand ,waslower by1.3%andthenumber ofcows by0.8%,In1975 i
asaresult ofaslight increase intheslaughtering ratio and a
cecline inaverage weight atslaughter ,especially ofadult
bovines ,anincrease ofabout 2inbeef andveal production is
expected ;thetotal could amount toabout 6.650million metric
tons .Asregards beef andveal consumption ,itwill beaffected
in1975 byseveral factors .Retail prices ofbeef andveal will
behigher than in197^asaresult ofincreased production costs ;
however ,this latter increase will notbefully passed onto
consumers since trade margins inthis sector will berelatively
lower than in197^*Concurrently ,reduced supplies ®fpigmeat
during thesecond half of1975 should lead toanappreciable rise
inprices forthis product .Consequently ,beef andveal consumption
should rise byabout 3-§%in1975 »i*e.,atalower rate than
ia197^*This increase inbeef andveal consumption will be
covered byamoderate increase inproduction ,drawings from stocks
and aslight import surplus .
Although beef andveal production potential isstill very substantial
aslight tendency forbreeding herds todecline hasalready been
noted ;in197& ,therefore ,itmaybeexpected that production will
'rise toalesser extent ,perhaps byabout 1-2%•Ifinthefuture
this tendency towards pessimism onthepart ofproducers were to
continue ,oreven strengthen ,itmight beexpected that the
Community would once more move into deficit towards the end ofthe
seventies -though nodoubt toalesser extent than in1972/73-
Forecasts for the world' market situation donot seem favourable to
producers atpresent .InNorth America ,herds expanded appreciably ,
•••/•••

byabout 6%;although thenumber ofcattle selected forfattening
was substantially lower inJanuary 1975 than inthe same month of
197^1 itisexpected that slaughterings will increase byabout 3*5%
in1975 *^nArgentina ,and^oastill greater extent inAustralia ,
aneven more substantial increase intheslaughtering rate ,inbeef
andveal production andinthealready large quantities available
forexport aneexpected .Itisprobable ,therefore ,that in1975 -
andperhaps also in1976 -world beef andveal production will continue
torise inview ofthevery substantial herds maintained inall the
major production andconsumption area ^.
- '' s
Pigmeat
Production ofpigmeat in1975 isforecast at8.2million tons ,a
decrease ofabout 3%bycomparison with 197^.However ,invalue
terms ,demand may beexpected toincrease .The logical consequence
#fsuch asituation isasignificant increase inprices for thewhole
year .From astrictly quantitative point vfview ,pigmeat consumption
will remain static ,whilst thedegree of6elf sufficiency inthe
Community asawhole could decrease .
IntheUSA ,forecasts indicate adecrease inpigmeat production in
1975 ,oftheorder of15-17 %bycomparison with 197^.Such a
reduction insupply will lead toasignificant price increase for
pigmeat inthis country .AsfarasEastern Europe isconcerned ,
pigmeat production in1975 will increase slightly over the197^level ,
itself anincrease ofabout 10%bycomparison with 1973 «
The short term situation ofanincrease inpigmeat prices and ofa
reduction intheprice offeed cereals ontheworld market ,makes for
favourable conditions forpigmeat production .Asaresult ,anincrease
inthebreeding herd maybeexpected ;thefigures forApril 1975
indicated aconsiderable decrease intheCommunity asawhole compared
with theprevious ,period .Thefollowing summary nlaytherefore beput
•forward :production ofpigmeat will continue todecline until the
endofspring 197& ,butwith asignificant improvement intheautumn
ofthat year .Taken asawhole ,production ofpigmeat intheCommunity
in1976 will bevery close tothelevel of1975 *

C.EP -S-Sand poultry
Eggs :Thereduction inoutput which hadbeen forecast for 1975 1
only came about inthesecond quarter ofthe year# Asaresult ,
-prices will tend toimprove ,although itisunlikely that this
will represent asatisfactory return .The delay inre-establishing
amore satisfactory price level ispartly theresult ofthelimited
possibility ofexports tothird countries .
Atthebeginning of1976 ,abetter market balance maybeexpected .
Taking account ofseasonal production anddemand effects ,this
development could lead toarelatively high level ofprices in
thesecond ouarter of1976 .
Poultr^f -.
Thelowprices of197^andearly 1975 discouraged production ,and
ledtoafairly marked reduction inplacings tohatcheries inmost
Member states .Atpresent ,prices areimproving ,andthis improvement
should continue until the end of1975 *Such atrend ismade more
likely bythe reduction ofstock levels ofother meats .
Thestructure ofpoultry meat production makes itpossible to
react rapidly tochanged market conditions .Intheabsence ofany
overall planning amongst professional organizations ,itisnot to
beexcluded that theimproved market situation could lead toincreased
production ,which could lead toanunsatisfactory situation asfar
asprice levels in1976 areconcerned .
Milk Sector
Theunfavourable weather conditions prevailing incertain regions
oftheCommunity together with rises inproduction costs ,especially
ofconcentrated feeding -j-stuffs, have had theeffect ofstabilizing
overall milk production intheCommunity in197^«These factors ,
linked toatemporary rise infarm butter production ,have resulted
inarelatively slight increase inmilk deliveries -amounting to
1%overall inthenine Member states .Since the size "ofherds is
unlikely tochange significantly whilst weather conditions may
improve ,6ome increase inmilk production anddeliveries (1~2and

2-3%respectively )maybe expected fcrthe1975/76marketing year .
Thegrowing difficulties encountered oninternational cheese markets
may result inagradual slowdown intherise incheese production ,
which will tend toalignscitself onthe rate ofincrease incheese
consumption intheEEC (*f5-50,000 metric tons perannum );this
will have theeffect ofleaving anincreased quantity ofmilk
available for themanufacture ofproducts subject totheintervention
system .
Butter consumption will probably decline by3-5%intheCommunity
asawhole ,thesharpest declines probably occuring intheUK,Germany
and -France .Cheese consumption will continue toexpand ,but ataslower
pace (1.5-2%)•Consumption ofmilk andmilk products which ,inthe
past ,hasrisen slightly faster than therate ofpopulatisn growth ,
will decline in1975 asaresult oflower consumption inGermany and
France .Ontheassumption that for theother products trends will be
little changed ,anincrease inproduction ofbutter andskimmed milk
powder maybeexpected andislikely topersist (about 2-3%and
5-6%respectively .Asaresult ,intervention stocks arelikely
torise byabout 100 .0C0 tons forbutter and200.000 tons forskimmed
milk powder .
Asregards world market trends ,itshould benoted that thecontinuance
ofnormal weather conditions inNew Zealand will result inanappreciabl
increase inmilk production .Atthesame time ,deliveries arelikely
tobestable intheother major producer countries (United States ,
Canada andAustralia ). ,
Thepersistent decline intheconsumption ofmilk andskimmed milk
powder intheUS,together with existing overall surpluses onworld
markets ,will probably result insome uncertainty asregards prices
andreluctance onthepart ofpurchasers ,which will accentuate the
;difficulties faced byexporters ofmilk products .Broadly speaking ,
supplies ofbutter andcheese 6nworld markets will exceed demand by
about 20.000 and50.000 metric tons respectively .Asregards skimmed
milk powder ,surpluses areestimated atabout 300 -350.000 tons .

Asregards the1976/77marketing year ,itshould benoted that even
ifthei&te ofexpansion ofproduction and deliveries ofmilk were
lower ,itisprobable that adegree ofstagnation inCommunity
consumption (inmilk equivalents )together with thelong-term
difficulties being experienced onworld markets -especially as
regards skimmed milk powder -will result inapersistent increase
inEEC intervention stocks -

10 -
Cereais
The vjorld outlook forcereals production andmarkets haschanged spectacu­
larly since the last forecasts were made .Demand forimported cereals has
fallen offsharply ,resulting inlower prices ;this will probably "bring
carry –over stocks intheprincipal exporting countries toahigher level
than expected .IntheEEC ,4million tons ofsoft wheat will tostored in
theform ofintervention stocks orother stocks qualifying forCommunity
aid (intervention B),notcounting thequantities inprivate hands .Barley
continues tobeinabundent supply intheCommunity and ,inview ofthe
relatively weak export demand ,stocks will probably reach ahigh level .
However ,the1975 harvest results will beaffected bytherainy weather in
spring anautumn ,andadecline inproduction ofsoft wheat of1-2million
tons isexpected ;this decline maybeaccompanied byasupply ofgood-quality
spring wheat more abundant than normal ,butitisalso likely that asubs­
tantial part ofthewinter wheat harvest will bemade upofvarieties normal –
'lyused foranimal fedd (Maris Huntsman ,etc).Barley production islikely
tobeabout thesame asinthepreceding year ,butthemaize crop mayprove
tobesubstantially bigger inview ofthefavourable growth conditions .
Demand forfeed grains maydecline slightly ,asaresult ofthemore competi­
tive prices forsoya intheCommunity ;cereal exports ,furthermore ,will have
tomeet strong competition from North .American production .Assuming ,therefore ,
that demand forcereals fordirect human consumption will bestable -or
atthemost increase slightly -prfessttre on!intornal narket prices will pro­
bably continue inthecoming marketing year ,especially intheoase offeel
grains .
IntheUnited States ,arecord wheat crop isexpected for1975 ;inaddition ,
substantial harvests arealso expected inCanada andtheUSSR ,butinview
ofthefact that inthese cases harvest-time isfurther off ,theoutcome
isless certain .Asregards theimporting countries ,India mayachieve better
harvest results ,which would reduce itsimport needs ,whilst African import
requirements mayincrease .Import needs ofthecountries ofEastern Europe
could bemetbytheUSSR ,which –ifitachieves itsobjective ofproducing
atotal of215million metric tons ofcereals –nayeven have surpluses avai­
lable export toother countries .Wheat stocks intheUnited States areexpec­
tedtorise from 7.8million toabout 13million metric tons between nowand

-11
theendofJune1976*Inthesouthernhemispherehowever,areducedexport
availability isexpectedfromcountriessuchasAustraliaandtheArgentina.
Worldproductionofcoarsegrainin1975/76willdependtoagreatextent
onthemaizeharvestinUnitedStates,wheretheareaoflandunderthis
cropisnotyetknownwithceraintyjtheresultswillinanycasebedetermi­
nedbyweatherconditionsinthesimmerandautumn.However,thelatestes­
timatesbytheUSDApointtoatotalcropofbetween146and163million
tons,against118milliontonsin1974«Consequently ,totalworldproduction
ofcoarsegrainscouldexceed600milliontons(against560millionin
1974/75)t"thegreaterpartofthisincreasebeingduesolelytotheincrease
intheAmericanmaizecrop.Demandforfeedgrainswillalsodependtoa
greatextentonthesituationintheUnitedStates,whereanimprovementin
beefpricesand/oradeclineincerealpricescouldquicklytriggeroffan1
intensivefatteningprogrammeinvolvingsubstantial numbersofcattla.
Certainsignsalreadysuggestthattheuseofcerealsforanimalfeedis
expandingmorerapidlythanexpected,althoughitappearsthatwheatrather
thancoarsegrainsarebeingusedforthispurpose.InJapan,which–apart
fromEurope,constitutestheothermajormarket,therecessioninthestock-
breedingsectorseemstohavebeenmoreserious,sincestocksheldbythe
animalfeedindustryarestillveryhigh,althoughsomerecoveryinthe
demandforimportsoffeedgrainscannotbeexcludedfor1975/76.
ThedurumwheatcropinItalyin1975islikelytoveaverage,whilstin
Francetheareaunderthiscrophasrisen.Intheprincipalexportingcoun­
tries,ie,theUnitedStates,andCanadacropforecastsaregood,but,given
thatproductionisconcentrated inaverysmallnumberofregions,thedan­
gerthatsuppliesforworldexportswillbecompromised bybadweathercon­
ditionsisgreaterthaninthecaseofsoftwheat.Importdemandfordurum
wheatshouldbewellmaintained,especiallyinWorthAfrica,wherecrops
havebeendamagedbydraught;however,seriousshcrttagesinthissector
seemunlikely,unlessadisasteroccursinoneoftheprincipalproduction
areasorunforeseen demandarisesfromthestate-trading countries.
Asregardsthemarketingyearssubsequentto1975/76,fewindicationscan
begivensinceproductionwilldependjustlyonthereactionsoftherespon­
sibleauthorities andtheproducerstothepricedeclinesexpectedduringthe
comingyear,andsecondlyonweatherconditionsin1976.Demandforwheat

12-
willcontinuetoriseasaresultofpopulationincreasesandalso,perhaps,
asarestiltoftheincomeredistribution troughtabout "bytheriseinpetro­
leumprices.Demandforfeadgrainsmayalsoriseasaresultofthecurrent
lowlevelsofcerealpricesandwillcertainlystrengthenifworldeconomic
activity "becomes "brisker.Persistentstrongdemandwillthereforeprobably
continuetoexposeworldmarketstothedangerofsharppricefluctuations ,
unless1975cropsarelargeenoughtoenableessentialstockstobereplenished.
Followingtheshortagesof1973/74*"thericeproducingcountrieshavetended
toincreasetheiracreagesundercultivation.Inaddition,yieldshavein­
creasedfromyeartoyear,andasaresult,givennormalweatherconditions,
theworldharvestfor1975/76wellattheleastbeequaltotheverygood
harvestof1974/75•Worldricestocks,whichwerepracticallynon-existant
in1973»havebeenreconstituted ,andsignificantquantitiesoflowquality
riceareavailableforexportinthemainexportingcountries(USA,Thailand,
China,SouthAmerica),Demandforriceremainsstrong,althoughthecountries
withthegreatestneedshavegenerallytheweakesteconomics,andoftenre­
placericebyotherlowerpricedcereals(wheat,sorghum).Thepriceofrice
ontheworldmarket,whichwasveryhighin1973/74?hassincethencontinues-
tydeclined,andislikelytocontinuethisdownwardstrendthrough1975/76.
In1975/76,Communityproduction,onanreducedacreage,butwithincreased
yields,willbeverynearlythesameasin1974/75(1-5©intonsofpaddy),
givenreasonableweatherconditions.Thelevelofproductioncarriesthe
riskofasurplusof200.000-300.000tonsofrice(husked)whichwould
provedifficulttodisposeofonthirdcountrymarkets.

Proteinfeedstuffs
Asinpastyearsthesituationontheworldproteinmarketin1975will
bedominatedbysoyaproductionintheUnitedStates.Infact,inrecent
yearsAmericansoyaproductionhasbeenadeterminingfactorinworld
proteinmarkets.However,inrecentmonthsthepricetrendsofprotein
substanceshavebeendeterminedratherbyfactorsrelatingtodemand.
DespitetheappreciabledeclineintheUnitedStatessoyacropin1974,
thelevelofworlddemandforoilcakewasnothighenoughtoreverse
thedownwardtrendinpriceswhichhasbeeninevidencesinceNovember1974-
Thedecliningprofitability ofmeatproductionnotedduring1974brought
aboutareductioninthesizeofherdsmaintainedforfatteningthrough­
outtheworldandparticularly intheUnitedStates.Theslowerrise
indemandforproteinswhichresultedhasledtotheconstitution of
stocks-especiallyofsoya-whichnayreasonablybeexpectedtoover­
hangthemarketatleastuntiltheendof1975»whenthenewsoyacrop
fromtheUnitedStateswillbecomeavailable.
Finally,thesubstantialsoyaharvest(between3.5and9millionmetric
tons)forecastforBrazilin1975,togetherwithsubstantialfish
catchesinPeruinMarch1975,arebothfactorsalsotendingtomake
forlowerprices.
Itshouldbenoted,however,thatintheCommunity,proteinconsumption
andimportrequirements in1975havescarcelychangedinrelationto
1974,&uetothefactthatprices-especiallyofsoyaoilcake-are
atfavourablelevelscomparedwithcereals.
Asregardsworlddemandforproteins,itmaybeexpectedthatafter
stagnatingin1974/75,a-recoverywilloccurin1975/76.IntheUnited
Statesespecially,anincreaseinthedemandforproteinsistobeexpected1975/76
Asregardsthestipplyside,itislikelythatthe1975/76seasonwill
beginwithsubstantially highercarry-overstocksofso-,raoilcake
thaninthetwoprecedingyears.Inaddition,thelatestforecastsby
theUSDA,issuedon11June1975,pointtoasubstantialriseinsoya
beanproductionintheUnitedStatesin1975/76,thecropbeing
estimatedatbetween39•6and42.2millionmetrictons,against33^6million
tonsinthepreviousyear. .../...

14-
Asaresult,theUSDAexpectsthatsoj^a"beanstocksintheUnited
Stateswillhavemorethandoubledbytheendof1975/76inrelation
tothepreviousyear'slevel(12.3milliontonsagainst5million
previously).
Forecastsforsomerecoveryin-generaleconomicactivityfromtheend
of1975onwards,togetherwithanimprovementintheprofitability of
livestockfarminginthesecondhalfof1975-especiallyinthepig-
breedingsector-imply,fortheCommunity,thatthedemandfor
proteinsshouldbeexpectedtoriseduringthe1975/76season.This
increaseindemandwillprobablybeamplifiedb3rthefactthatinthe
Community,proteinprices-•especiallysoyaoilcakeprices-willbe
atfavourablelevelsincomparisonwithcerealprices.
Pricesonthedehydratedfoddermarketfollowed,tosomeBxtent,the
fallinthepriceofsoyaduringthe1974/75marketingyear.Inview
oftheCouncildecisionsonpricingpolicy,noextensionofthearea
underfodderfordehydrationcanbeexpectedin1975/76.
Theinclusionofpotatoesusedasanimalfeedintheregulations con­
cerningdehydratedfodderwillhavelittleeffectontheabove-»entioned
trends,sincethesecropsarerestrictedtoparticularregions.;'<■'■'

-15-
ousrar
Onthsbasisofforecastsrelatingtothe1975sugarbeetacreageinEurope
andthefavourabletrendsinsugarproductioninmanyproducercountries,
itmaybeassumedthatworldsu.garproductionrailbeconsiderably higher
in1975/76thanintheprecedingyear.
Worldsugarconsumption,whichforsometimehasbeenrestrainedbyhigh
pricelevelsorevenshortages,willprobablyincreaseoncemorein1975/76,
inrelationtotheconsiderablyreducedconsumptionlevelof1974/75*
t
However,productionwillprobablyincreasefasterthanconsumption.Thus,
worldstocks,whicharenowextremelylow,couldrisetoanormallevel.
Thisprobabledevelopment wouldindicatethatworldpricesforsugarrail
continuetofollowadownwardtrendincomingmonths.
ThetotalsugarproductionforecastfortheCommunityin1975/76andpre­
ferentialimportsofsugarfromtheACPcountrieswillinallprobability
exceedCommunityconsumption.
Intheyearsaheadtheacreageundersugarbeet(in1975»about15%gre?^»
terthanlastyear)willdependontherelativelevelofsugarbeetprices,
whichwillinturnbeinfluencedbytheeconomicsituationinthissector.
Inviewofapossiblyslowerrateofincreaseinoutputperha(fertilizer),
theprobablechangesinacreageandanewupswinginhumainconsumption ,
theCommunitysugarsurpluswilltendtostabilizeoverthenextfewyears.
Oilseedsandoliveoil
ThedataavailablesofarwouldsuggestthatcolzaproductionTallnotex­
ceed1070000metrictonsin1975/76despiteafurtherincreaseinthe
productionintheUnitedKingdomandDenmark,wherecolzagroranghasnot
yetreachedabalancedlevel.Thefallinoutput,bothinrelativeandab­
soluteterms,expectedin1975/76hasbeencausedbyaconsiderablefallin
productioninthetwocountrieswheremostcolzaisgrown,France(-14f°)
andGermciiy(-20fo).ThisdeclineinPrenchandGermanproductionis''part­
lyduetoihe'Whetherconditionsobtainingwhenthecropsweresowninautumn
1974andearls'1975*
\

-16-
,Asregardsthe1975/77cropyear,outputtrendswillbeinfluenced "bythe
yieldsfromthenewvarietiesofcolzarrithalowerucicacidcontent,••'
whichwillhavelargelyreplacedthetraditionalvarieties,and"bythe
areaundercolza,whichwillinturndependonthepricerelationship esta­
blishedbetweencolzaandtheproductsalternatingwithcolzaincroprota­
tion.
Consumptionisexpectedtopickupasincreasingsuppliesofcolzr-oilwith
alowerucicacidcontentbecomeavailable.
s
EnquiriesmadeamongCommunitysoyaproducersindicatethattheyintendto
sowsoyaonthesameacreageasin1974/75»s°thatanoutputofapproxi­
mately8000metriotonsmaybehopedforin1975/76#
Althoughtheareaundercottonseedrosefrom3200hain1973toabout
5000hain1974»asubstantialexpansionincottonseedgrowingcannotbe
expectedoverthenextfewyears.
Aslightfallinfibreflaxproduction,asharpincreaseinseedflax
productionandasteadyadvanceinthegrowingofhempforpaper-making
maybeexpectedin1975A^»

-17-
winesector
r
Thesituationonthe>70ridwinemarketwillbemarkedbyacontinuedincrease
inworldtrineproduction,asoutputcontinuestorise,particularly inre­
gionswhereoutputiscurrentlyverysmall.
Therehasrecentlybeenadistinctriseinyieldsandsomeimprovementof
vineyardsintheCommunity,resultinginaremarkableincreaseinproduction
duringpastfiveyears.Forthisreason,theCommunitynowhasawinesur­
plus,whichmaybeexpectedtogrowoverthenextfewyears.
Thecurrentsurplushasledtosubstantialdistillation operations.Inview
ofthissituation,someadjustmenttothepolicyonwinewasnecessaryin
ordertostabiliseproductionandconsumptionintheCommunity.Formore
detailedinformation ,referenceshouldbemadetotheCommissiondocument
'♦ReportfromtheCommissiontotheCouncilontheestimateddevelopment
oftheareasplantedsndreplantedwithvinesintheCommunity,andonthe
existingratiobetweenproductionandutilizationinthevinegrowingsec­
tor".
Tobacco
Thefuturesituationonthe'jorldrawtobaccomarketwillbeinfluencedby:
(a)thetrendtowardsincreasedproduction }
(b)therelocationofproductioninthedevelopingcountriesandcountries
withaplannedeconomy|
' %
(c)themarketingofcellulose-based "synthetictobacco".
Theabove-mentioned increaseinproductionshouldnothaveanegativeeffect
onmarketinginviewofthefactthatthemajorexportingcountrieswill
havetoreplenishtheirstocks,whichhavebeengreatlydepletedoverthe
pasttwoyears.
Ontheotherhand,theappearanceofsynthetictobaccoinaperiodofanti-
smokingcampaignscould,inthelongtermandgivencompetitiveproduction
costs,havearestrainingeffectonproductionand,consequently ,consump­
tionofnaturaltobacco.
./•

-18-
In1974worldproductionamountedtoabout5millionmetrictons,coiapared
with140,000metrictonsintheE3C.Onpresenttrends,anannualincrease
ofabout4$atwotIdlevelandabout2%atCommunitylevelmaybeexpec­
tedoverthenexttnoyears,
Hops
In1976,givenareductionof2-3$inworldandCommunityacreageand
anaverageyield,supplyanddemandat-worldandCommunitylevelsmaybe
y
expectedtoachieveanapproximatebalancebycomparisonwiththepresent
surplussituation.Pricesarenotexpectedtoincrease,however,because
ofthehighlevelofbrewers1andtraders'stocks,whichmayrisestill
furtherinviewofthesurplusforecastfor1975*
Althoughworldbearconsumptionisincreasingslightly(about3$peryear),
theproportionofhopsusedinbreedingcontinuestodecreaseatabout2%
peryear.Asaresult,demandforhopsianearlystable.
I
Seed
Somereductioninoutputmaybeexpectedforthe1975harvest$the1975/197«
marketingyearmay,therefore^becharacterizedbyareductioninavailable
stocksandaprobableincreaseinmarketprices.
Thesametendencymaybeexpectedfor1976/1977>thatis,somereluctance
toexpandseedproductionandastabilization ofoutputandprices.
Anincreaseinthedemandforseed,particularlytheseedofcertainvarie­
tiesofleguminousplants,andastabilization ofthedemandforgrassseeds
maybeforecast.

-19-
Potatoes ,•' . .,.
Thegoodharvestin1974(+41milliont)casuedpricesofpotatoesforstorage
in1974/1975torankamongthelowestrecordedinrecentyearsintheEEC*
Evenharvestsofnewpotatoeshavebeenabundanteverywhereinearly1975?as
aresult,normalpricesmay"beexpectedforsuohpotatoesoverthenextfew
weeks.
Forthesereasons,itisprobablethattheareaunderpotatoesforstorage
willbesmallerin1975thanlastyear(l448000ha).Ifyieldsarenormal,
reducedstockssireforecastfor1975/76intheESCandpriceswillread
higherlevelsthanin1974/1975*
Ifthisforecastfor1975A976provesaccurate,theoppositetrendshould
beexpectedfor1976/l977«
Giventhegeneraleconomicsituation,theconsumptionoffreshpotatoes
couldbostabilizedatitspresentlevelbythefollowingmarketingyear.
Increasedconsumptioniffhowever,forecastforfrozenanddehydratedpotatoes.
FruitandVegetables
The1974/1975harvestsofapplesandpearsweredpxmonproceedingyears:
5722000tofapplesand2389000tofpears.
Asregardsthe1975harvestofstonefruit,thespringweatherinFrance
causedveryextensivedamagetopeachtreesandconsiderable damageto
plumtreesjhoweverthedamagetoapricotandcherrytreeswaslimited.
TheresultwillbeafallinFrenchproductionofabout65$inthecase
ofpeachesand50$inthecaseofplums.
Asregardscitrusfruits,Italianproductionforecastsfor1950areof
2,050,000tonsoforangesandmandarinesandof820,000oflemons.This
isequivalenttoanannualgrowthrateof2,9$and1,0$respectively
from1970/71..
r..
' •••/•••

-20
<"1977".- .■'.
WithintheframeworkofthestudyprogrammeoftheDirectorate-General for
Agriculture,projections haveteenmadeoftheproductionandconsumption
ofagricultural productsin"1977"♦Acomprehensive reporton'thiswork
wasoompiled "bytheCommissionandpublishedasno129oftheseries
,"InternalInformationonAgriculture". ,x
TheCommissiondeemdditappropriate !ontheoccasionofthiscommunication
tothoCouncil,theexaminetheresultsofthisstudyinthelightof
developments onthevariousmarketsinrecentyears#TheCommissionwas
forcedtoconcludethatforcertainproductsthoprojections hadbeen
madeonthebasisofassumptions whichhavesinceprovedfalse,sisa
resultofmajorchanges,notleastintheCommonAgricultural Policy*
•Thisis,forexample,thecaseinthesugarsector,wheretheproduction
policyofthecommonmarketorganization wasrecentlymodified.Inthe
caseofotherproducts,theCommissionattemptedtocompareactual
productionandconsumptioninrecentyearswiththeresultsofthe
•projections,interpolated enblocfortheyearsinquestion.This
exercisebroughttotheCommission^noticeafewdifferencesbetween
realityandthesaidprojections }thesedifferencesHerobothpositive
andnegativeandcouldalmostbedescribedasstructuralinnature.For
thesereasons,itwouldseemappropriatetomakecertainadjustmentsto
theprojectionsfor"1977".Thepossibleadjustmentsforcertainagricultural
sectorsaresetforthinthotextbelow,. -
Inthocaseofwheat,actualproductionwas,onaverage,higherthanhad
beenprojected.Althoughdevelopmentsinthissectoroverthenextfew
yearswillmainlydependonfodderwheatproduction,thevolumeofwhich
oannoteasilybeforecast,theestimatefor"1977"#about43.7million
metrictons(totalwheat),nowseemsonthelowside.However,domestic
usewould,glsoseemtohavebeenunderestimated ,sothat,givenanoutput
ofabout45millionmetrictons,thetotalwhoatsurplusin"1977"
canbekeptat1.5millionmetrictonsapproximately ,thofiguregiven
bythoprojection.Subjecttotheremarksmadeaboveconcerningpossible
trendsinfodderwheat,theprojections madeforbarleyproductionand
consumption mayberetainedunalteredat35millionmetrictons
approximately . ,

-21
Homajorchafigosarenecessaryatpresenttothemaiaeproductionand
consumptionforecasts.Inthelightoftheforegoing,theselfsufficiency -
rateforallcerealsmaybeestimatedat93%for1977»ratherthanthe
91,4$quotedintheabovementionedstudies# ,
Asalreadypointedout,modifications tothecommonsugarpolicyhaveupset
thesugarestimatescalculatedfor"1977"•Suchestimatesmustnowbebased
onthefollowingfigures:
(a)asugarbeotacreageof1.7to1.8millionhaapproximately ataverageyields
(b)importsfromtheACPcountriesj
/\, ..„-,,,_–(c)ahumanconsumptionofabout10.5millionmetrictons.Giventhese
circumstances ,atotalquantityofabout1.5millionmetrictonsshould
bo(TO-)exportedtonon-membercountries#
Intheprojectionsfor&1977"»bothproductionandconsumptionofmilkwere
overestimated .Theover-estimate ofconsumption was,however,muchmore
seriousthanthatofproduction,sothatthestructuralimbalanceinthis
sectorcontinuestoworsen#Thisbeingthecase,itwouldbeinappropriate
togivethepreciseestimates,since,unlessunforeseendevelopmentstake
place,importantpolicymeasureswillbenecessaryinthissectorbefore
"1977".
Atthemoment,thereisnoneedtoalterthe"1977"projectionforthe
consumptionofbeefandveal(about7*1millionmetrictons).Production
has,however,beenunderestimated ,particularlyforrecentyears.New
estimatesfor"1977"wouldte»dtoindicateaself-sufficiency rateof
94-95/°*Pigmeatproduction,ontheotherhand,wouldseemtohavebeen
overestimated ,whiletheestimateofconsumption (about7,6millionmetric
tons,excludingfats)doe3notseemtoowideoftheipark,sothataself-
sufficiencyrateofabout100%maybeexpectedinthissector.
Thesomeholdsforthepoultrymeatsector,whereproductionisvery
slightlygreaterthantheconsumptionof3»6milliontons.