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COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
C0H<85) 208 final
Brussels, 4 june 1985
G E N E R A L  O B JE C T IV E S S T E E L  1990
(Commission working document)

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
C 0M C 85) 208 final
Brussels, 4 june 1985
GENERAL OBJECTIVES STEEL 1990
(Commission working document)
C 0M C 85) 208 final

GENERAL OBJECTIVES STEEL 1990
INTRODUCTION"TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter I The medium-term development of the steel market in the 
Community
1. Survey of past trends
2. Prospects for growth are s t i l l  modest
3. Foreseeable growth pattern for steel using sectors
4. Reductions in specific consumption too big to allow 
increases in demand
5. Projection of apparent consumption in 1990
6. Particular trends as regards preliminary processing 
products and tubes
7. Particular trends as regards special steels
8. Foreseeable trends beyond 1990
9. Consumption of steel in the accession countries and 
the enlarged Community ~
Chapter II External trade
1. Introduction
2. The world environment
3. Structural aspects of Community foreign trade
4. Forecast
- Impact of enlargement
5. Brief analysis of the external trade of the Community 
of Ten
Chapter III Balance between supply and demand
1.
2.
3.Production
Balance between supply and demand
- E E C  of Ten
- Impact of enlargement
Balance of the special steel sector

2.
Chapter IV Research and Development
1. Production and processing of steel
2. Stimulation of steel consumption
Chapter V Prices and conditions of sale
1. General
2. 1973 - 1974 :  the last two exceptional years
3. 1977 - 1985 :  the crisis years
4. Export sales
5. Import prices
6. Currencies
7. The medium-term prospects
Chapter V I Employment in the Community steel industry
1. Background
2. Characteristics of employment
3. Employment prospects in the iron and steel industry 
in 1990
4. Qualitative aspects of the development of the 
workforce
5. The social consequences
Chapter VII Supply of the steel industry
2.
3.Scrap
- Analysis of the scrap market 
R a w  materials supply 
Energy supply- prospects for 1990

1.
INTRODUCTION
The General Objectives Steel 1990 for the Community of Ten have had 
to be drawn up in circumstances which were quite different from 
those under which preceding programs and forecasts were established. 
The restructuring of the steel industry in the European Community is 
in full swing following the political decisions taken at Elsingor in 
1982. In addition, the 1990 horizon must be viewed in the light of 
the enlargement of the Community with Spain and Portugal, which 
might accentuate som e of the disequilibria appearing in the 
following chapters; the restructuring of the steel industry in these 
countries therefore becomes an important issue.
The c risis measures which made it possible to embark on the 
restructuring process without upsetting the market have done the job 
they were supposed to do and should give the Community steel 
industry a better starting position for its  future development.
However, as the restructuring process s t i l l  goes on, it is difficult 
to paint an exact picture of our steel industry in 1990, and to 
assess correctly the underlying trends of supply and demand, let 
alone the strategic choices which firms m ay make, when market 
controls are lifted .
Under these circumstances, the Community should carefully analyse 
the financial viability prospects of steel production companies in 
the light of the current restructuring plans.
It should be pointed out straight away that the Commission can only 
look at the steel sector in a global way, and that it can not 
consider separate policies for individual firms. The Commission is 
perfectly aware that the Community averages m ay be masking 
considerable discrepancies between different companies :  
productivity, and hence competitiveness will have developed in 
different ways. There is equally a diverging trend between 
production capacities and demand, and therefore the Commission will 
have to recognize that the global picture that appears at present 
for the period after 1990 continues to be characterized by an

2.
important capacity surplus, and this not-withstanding the 
restructuring effort which will have been made until the end of this
year.
Even on the fairly  optimistic assumption that internal consumption 
of steel, and exports, will remain relatively stable in the medium 
term compared with 1984, this surplus is likely to remain a 
structural factor in the steel industry in the European Community. 
If w e were to accept this structural surplus and the resulting 
pressure on prices, it would weigh heavily on the strategies of the 
steel companies, which, moreover, will have to make significant 
efforts to increase their level of competitiveness. Although it is 
impossible at present to pinpoint the surplus capacity, the steel 
industry should prepare its e lf to see market forces forcing it into 
further capacity reductions in the years ahead.
In this connection, each firm has to ascertain that its production 
structures can s t i l l  be regarded as being in line with the 
foreseeable developments of steel production technology and trends 
in the structure of supply and demand. The same remark applies to 
the structures and conditions of supply, in particular in the light 
of certain warning signals from the scrap market, which could call 
into question investment options which were valid in the past, as 
well as to the competition of substitution materials on the demand
side.
For the assessment of both supply and demand, it should be stressed 
that there is considerable uncertainty, due the unforeseeable 
behavior of exchange rates, concerning the foreign trade in steel 
and also for the raw material supply. Continuing changes, in both a 
favorable and unfavorable way,of the dollar rate can not be excluded 
in the future.
Even if exports could be maintained in the immediate future at 
present levels, this is likely to prove increasingly d iffic u lt to 
achieve, firs tly  for ordinary steels, given that production 
capacities in newly industrialised third-world countries are 
penetrating world markets. This only increases the necessity for 
permanent research into competitiveness in the markets. Besides,

3.
changes are possible in the respective parts of flat and long 
products according to the geographical distribution of exports. In 
particular long products are situated in a very competitive segment 
of the market and are very susceptible to the slightest 
macroeconomic variations.
There remains, in market terms, the permanent threat of a strong 
advance in the use of substitute products. The steel industry can 
also counteract th is, but on condition that it mobilises sufficient 
means to invest in R  S  D  and that prices are maintained at a  
reasonable level.
Nevertheless, this effo rt, which can only be undertaken by those 
firms with sufficient p ro fitab ility , can -partly- be strenghtened by 
official support measures in the field of research aid and by direct 
aid for steel consumption (loans under art. 54 for steel users). 
Anyway, the preservation of traditional markets will require that 
producers change their strategy from essentially being quantity- 
oriented towards a strategy of products having a higher added-value.
III. Even if the macroeconomic indicators are indicating moderate growth 
and increasing investment in industry, these prospects do not apply 
to all sectors, and in particular not to the steel industry.
There is the fact that the reduction in specific consumption is 
tending to cancel out the growth which is perceptible in products 
with a high steel content. This phenomenon was not always fully 
apparent until recently because of the gross reduction in steel 
consumption due to the economic c risis. The crisis and the excess 
capacity to which it gave rise merely served to conceal a m uch more 
basic problem, in the long run, i.e . the permanent change in the 
pattern of consumption and of steel processing technology.
While it is true that demand is increasingly moving towards quality 
steel products with a higher added value, the greater financial 
return this gives the steel industry is not always enough to offset 
the financial losses resulting from structural overcapacity.

However, the constant improvement in the quality of our steel 
products is a decisive factor in the ability of the European 
Community steel industry to withstand international competition. 
TürTherrrKïre/suctr -a - -"qualify labet" - can also. _b_e_ _  atttached to 
manufactured products and further improve the image of Community 
products on non-Community markets. Lastly, it is also a factor 
which may work to the benefit of our processing industries on 
condition, however, that as a result of productivity our steel 
products remain at a price level which renders them commercially 
preferable to imported products.
If the European steel industry is to survive in these difficult 
circumstances, and in the face of international competition, the 
companies should return definitively to viability - from both a 
financial and a technical point of view.
The Community market cannot continue to be relatively sheltered from 
competition from non-Community producers, as was the case during the 
period of acute crisis, and it is urgently necessary that our 
industry recognizes that its market, share, depends essentially on the 
quality and the price attractiveness of its supply.
This aspect is equally valid in internal and export markets, which 
have in some ways speculative characteristics. The EEC-steel 
industry must therefore permanently adapt the level and the flows of 
its exports to ever changing conditions; it should therefore also 
consider carefully whether its offer remains competitive from a 
qualitative point of view.
The link between the Community's ability to preserve its internal 
market and its ability to maintain a worthwhile level of exports is 
not only determined by its direct exports :  steel is a starting 
material for many european manufactured products the steel content 
of which remains high (machinery, vehicles, ...). The Commission 
has already emphasized this point in earlier General Objectives, and 
it will also be considered in later sections.
Moreover, the pressure of imports (and particularly semi-finished 
products) is certainly going to grow because the steel problem

continues to exist in all industrialised countries and is forcing 
their steel industry to increase its export efforts. Only certain 
third countries (like Japan) have begun their structural policy well 
before the others and far from resting on their laurels, they are 
pursuing this policy in a very motivated fashion. The effects of__ 
these policies have to be faced in all markets.
Leaving aside the figures and projections, not withstanding their 
information value for all those concerned with the development of 
the sector (producers,workers,steel users, bankers, government...), 
it must be stressed that the future of the steel industry, even if 
it depends on a political will to set and, above all, pursue common 
European objectives in this sector in a logical manner, is largely 
dependent on the economic conditions under which the companies must 
operate in the different Member States and on the quality of the 
companies' management.
Against this background, each common action should focus on the 
following goals :
(a) the steel industry in the European Community must be 
technologically up to date, capable of ensuring prices as low as 
possible and meeting the requirements of steel-using industries 
in the Community in the best possible way;
(b) it must not be too big; otherwise it would not be sufficiently 
flexible to cope with cyclical fluctuations without losing 
financial viability or to provide an effective response to at 
times sudden changes in the qualitative pattern of demand;
(c) the position which the Community steel industry strives for in
world trade, will have to be compatible with the need for 
financial viability: each company will have to plan,
consequently, its level of productive capacity for the purpose 
of serving permanently world markets and at acceptable risk. 
This has to proceed in the light of the experience that high 
world demand was generally concentrated in short periods, 
separated by long intermediate periods.

These objectives are realistic from a technical and economic point 
of view. The conservation of a competitive steel industry also 
makes a direct constribution to furthering a strong and competitive 
European transformation industry.
However, it is not enough to set policy objectives; it must be borne 
in mind that if these objectives are to be attained there are a 
number of preconditions.
The first, and not the least important, is that the concept of the 
single market should not only be safeguarded but also re­
established. It would be a contradiction in terms (and a decline )  
if the majority of firms relied on the domestic market, and 
considered trade with the other Community Member States as being of 
secondary importance - like world exports.
Such a renationalisation attitude would result in behaviour and 
structures incapable of displaying a joint front to international 
competition, even on our internal market.
The problem posed by the remaining structural over-capacity must be 
carefully analysed. It would be a shame and politically inconsistent 
not to see through to the end of the structure policy begun so 
courageously three years ago. The effort made till now, (the first 
effects of which are starting to be felt already), has greatly 
clarified the situation and opened up valuable opportunities. We 
must continue to finalize conditions which will enable the firms to 
pursue the restructuring movement and subsequently, search for 
optimum productivity.
At the same time, it is of fundamental importance that the Community 
should continue its specific action to counteract the serious social 
consequences of restructuring. It is unthinkable that the efforts 
to solve the crisis in the steel industry should be a success as far 
as industrial policy is concerned, but a failure socially. Because 
the Community must follow up the restructuring in the steel 
industry, it is essential that it has the means to face up to the 
serious social problems which arise from it, and that it puts in 
place effective machinery to achieve its objectives in this field.

7.
Therefore,. more so than in the past, there will be a need to 
coordinate the instruments of social and regional reconversion. 
Restructuring measures will cause their social effects to be felt 
for many years to come. A productive steel industry can remain in 
many cases the centre of a regional economy with all the problems 
of direct and indirect employment common to regional monostructures. 
Given that the steel industries' problems are likely to continue to 
hit the steel "bassins", the more they have a monosectorial
industrial structure, the Commission will reinforce its efforts to 
improve the functioning and effectiveness of the existing 
instruments.
Our policy must therefore continue to be based on a Community-wide 
strategy transcending the geographical boundaries of the individual 
Member States. There is no alternative if duplication of effort is 
to be avoided in the various stages of the production process and 
the management of our structures is to be improved.
This is the way in which we should emerge from the present period 
which is dominated by the crisis measures and hence by the urgent 
need for equitable burden-sharing with a view to making coordinated 
progress towards an all-round improvement.
It is obvious that the five-year forecast for a "heavy" sector, 
cannot appear satisfactory. On the other hand, five years are a lot 
in a period which is dominated essentially by intensely speculative 
movements (e.g. the rate of the U.S.$), by numerous uncertainties 
and finally by the weakness of the macroeconomic growth, the 
essential of which is concentrated in precision techniques and the 
resulting services.
VII. Forecasts for the period up to 1990 are based on the assumption that 
although gradual progress will be made in the use of advanced 
technology in our industry (as regards both the means of production 
and finished products) this will not disrupt the production process 
to any significant extent.
However, this will not necessarily be the case after 1990. Both

8.
the macroeconomic factors and the technological evolution are hard 
to predict.
But it is also difficult at present to assess exactly how these 
parameters will affect matters: for example, it is possible that
regional differentiations will occur.
The biggest uncertainties lie however within the field of 
substitution materials for steels, from which it is not unreasonable 
to expect surprises in view of the worldwide research and 
development efforts on new materials.
Based on certain elements known at present, one can imagine that:
- the production of steel in developing countries will grow to meet 
the needs of the local market, at least for ordinary steel of a 
low added value;
- other large countries, for example China, will join the group of 
industrialised countries, at least as far as primary products,
i.e. steel, are concerned;
- substitute products will be used especially where they allow 
direct or indirect savings (examples: cars, electrical 
appli ances).
One of the scenarios with which one is therefore very likely 
confronted - but according to the economic, monetary, technological 
and even socio-political evolution deviating scenarios can be 
conceived - would be looking as follows:
- the European steel industry would depend for the most part on the 
market of the Community;
- it would have to share this internal market, in many user sectors, 
with other products; it is up to the steel industry to be price- 
competitive and to offer attractive european products;
- export would be the exclusive domaine of sophisticated products

9.
and only then when prices can sustain the international 
competition.
The Commission consequently stresses the link there is between the 
competitive position of the steel industry and the development of 
steel production within the Community after 1990.
It can see growth prospects only for those steelmaking companies, 
which will have made a permanent restructuring effort, and which 
will have adjusted to the market trends, probably towards a more 
intensive production of higher value products.
The Commission has therefore the intention to report periodically on 
the Community market evolution and on exports, with an aim at 
comparing its forecast with the effective situation and at detecting 
rapidly any new trend. Within this context, particular attention 
will be paid to the technical evolution in the main steel using 
sectors, and to the competitiveness of the steel industry on world 
markets.
VIII. In presenting the "General Objectives 1990", the Commission wishes 
to distinguish from this document, the concrete decisions it will 
have to take in the near future, in view of the expiry, at the end 
of 1985, of a significant part of the anti-crisis measures.
The General Objectives reflect essentially the macroeconomic 
framework within which the European steel industry will have to 
— determine -its medium-term indusrtrtat strategy. In its final 
version, after the opinion of the ECSC Consultative Committee will 
have been received, this text will form the background for the 
positions the Commission will adopt on accompanying measures at a 
Community level beyond 1985, in particular in the following areas: 
market, prices, structures, social and regional reconversion, 
external trade.

1/1
CHAPTER I
THE MEDIUM-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE STEEL MARKET IN THE COMMUNITY
1. Survey of past trends
The profound crisis which the Community steel industry has been going 
through since the recession in autumn 1980 following the general 
recession unleashed by the second oil shock of 1979-80, eased slightly 
towards the end of 1983. After three consecutive years of contracting 
markets, demand recovered strongly in 1983/84. Together with the 
favourable conditions for steel exports and the replenishment of 
stocks, this produced an unexpected 10% rise in Community steel 
production in 1984. However, this recovery mainly benefited products 
with a higher added value, such as coated sheet, and more in 
particular products not covered by the production quota system.
Seen in^a longer perspective, however, the recovery in 1984 is really 
more of a short-term peak in a fundamentally downward curve, and the 
situation is hence very similar to that in 1979.
Comparison of macroeconomic trends over the last twenty years - during 
which period there have been four separate cycles - with some specific 
steel market indicators shows the main features of the structural 
decline characterizing the steel industry. There are, however, a 
number of factors which have combined to bring about the progressive 
divorce between economic growth (measured in GDP) and apparent steel 
consumption during this period. Analysis of this difference allows 
each factor to be seen in perspective, and in this way projections 
based on crude extrapolation from too general trends can be avoided.

1/2
Macroeconomic context of the Community 
steel market (EUR-9)
(mean annual growth in %)
I
|  PERIODI
|  GROSS GROSS FIXED OVERALL PRODUCTIONI  I
|  APPARENT I
I|DOMESTIC CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL IN STEEL |  STEEL |
I|PRODUCT FORMATION PRODUCTION PROCESSING |CONSUMPTION|
II SECTORS I  d) I
I
II
I(NACE 31-36) I  I  
I  I
I
11965-70I
|  + 4.4 + 4.8 + 4.9 + 4.6I  I
I  + 4.2 |
11971-74|  + 3.8 + 1.9 + 3.6 + 2.5I  + 0.7 |
11975-79|  + 2.6 + 1.0 + 2.0 + 1.5I  - 0.8 |
11980-84
I|  + 0.9
I- 0.3 - 0.1 + 0.1I  - 2 I  
I  I
(1) including first-stage steel processing products (non-ECSC).
It is immediately apparent from the above table that, for at least ten 
years, apparent steel consumption has been falling by about 3% a year 
compared with GDP.
From one cycle to the next, growth in the Community economy has been 
slowing down, whereas investment's share of GDP (gross fixed capital 
formation-GFCF) has remained pretty well constant (the respective 
averages for the four cycles being 22%, 22.3%, 20.6% and 19.4%). In 
particular, public investment declined significantly during recent 
years.
Since the mid-1970s, GDP and industrial production have clearly grown 
at different rates; this is explained by the fact that economic growth 
has been centred in tertiary activities and the public sector.

1/3
Steel's customer industries grew more slowly, initially, than overall 
industrial production, and fell back into stagnation in the 1980s; 
this is largely explained by the fact that their activities are 
concentrated in heavy equipment and construction sectors, which were 
particularly affected by the lack of investment.
The main factor behind the structural decline of the steel market 
emerges clearly, however, when one compares the production (in volume 
terms) of the steel-processing sectors with the curve for steel demand 
created by those sectors. The phenomenon of declining specific 
consumption of steel has cut steel's traditional steel markets in 
advanced industrial economies such as the Community by nearly 2% a 
year - and in the United States this trend has been even more marked 
than in Europe. A special section is devoted to this crucial
phenomenon (cfr. infra).
If it is to give sufficient expression to the economic and 
technological factors resulting from the production activities of the 
processing industries, any forecast of Community demand for steel, 
must examine the following aspects of the future industrial 
environment :
- the extent and nature of macroeconomic growth;
- the development curve of the main steel-processing industries, with 
allowance being made for the macroeconomic environment;
- the demand for steel products emanating from those sectors, taking 
account of possible changes in the structure of demand and 
production technology.
2. The prospects for growth are still modest, in spite of an upswing in 
industrial investment
The forecasts for 1985 show that GDP growth will 2 1/2 % in volume 
terms - confirmation that the Community's economy began to recover in 
1984 after three years of recession.
As regards internal demand, consumption, both private and public, will 
go up only slowly, whereas capital formation should be more vigorous, 
although the latter's rise depends essentially on private industrial

investment rather than public investment or housing construction. As 
in 1984, the increase in GDP will result largely from an improvement 
in the Community's trade balance, made possible by growth in world 
trade and in US imports in particular (the contribution of Japanese 
imports to the development of world imports remaining significantly 
less).
For subsequent years, it is essential that the growth of the 
Community's economy should be increasingly supported by internal 
demand factors - without prejudice to the adjustment and stabilization 
policies that are now well under way - especially as the growth in 
world trade may peter out as a result of a possible change of course 
by the US economy.
Against this background, one encouraging feature of the Community 
economy has been the recovery in industrial investment, which should 
continue beyond 1985, if manufacturers' intentions actually come to 
pass. The revival in industrial investment can be explained, it seems, 
by a combination of four factors: the ageing of the Community's fixed 
capital stock in recent years; the consequent technological need for 
plant and equipment to be replaced; improved profitability; and a 
greater use of capacity in many industries. As regards other types of 
investment, however, housing construction can pick up only slowly as 
interest rates come down, and investment opportunities in the public 
sector will be very limited.
It follows that overall growth in the second half of the 1980s will be 
modest, with a more dynamic investment component gradually resuming 
its traditional level of 20% of GDP - a significant contrast with 
recent years during which the investment climate has deteriorated.
However, uncertainties of an international nature (e.g. a sudden 
devaluation of the US dollar or a drastic reduction in US imports) may 
jeopardize the level of predicted medium-term growth and the growth 
rates set out below are therefore only tentative. The scenario 
assumes that the economic policies currently applied in the various 
Member States will be continued, especially with respect to the 
encouragement of investment.

1/5
Medium-term projection for the Community economy(1)
(annual average growthin %)
I
II  VARIABLE
II  r|1981-'83|
I  I  
I  I1984I|  1985
I
Ii r|1986 and|
|beyond |
|  (1) j
I(international assumptionsi------------------I  I  
(  II
I|I  I  
I  I1|Real price of crude oil in US$ 1-1/1 I - 0,1I  - 0 ,1I  I  I  0,0 ||Imports (in volumeterms) I  I II  I|  - non-member countries I  2,6 | 10,8I  5,6I  5,0 ||  - of which USA I  6,3 | 26,4I  9,4I  4,6 |j  ECU/$ exchange rate I  13,8 | 12,7I  3,51-1,5 I(Long- term interest rates in the USA (a) 1I  12,0 |
I I12,5I  13,5I  13,0 (
I I1(international economic policy assumptionI  I  (EUR-10) |I
II  I
I  I1|Public consumption~1 II  1/4 | 1,1I
I  1,1I  II  0,7 ||Pub lie investment 1-2,5 I 2,0I  0,6I  0,9 |(Housing construction (private + public) 
I1-2,4 |
I I1,4I  0,5I  1,9 I
1|Growth (EUR-10) |1  1  
1  1I
II  I
I  I
I|  GDP 1  0,4 | 2,411  2,41  1  1  2,5 ||Private consumption 1  0,7 1 1,11  1,51  2,1 I|  GFCF 1-2,1 I 2,1I  3,0I  3,4 ||  (Share of GFCF in GDP) (a) |  (19,1) I (18,7)|  (19,0j  (20) j|Exports I  2,3 | 6,9I  5,7I  4,9 ||  Imports I  0,8 | 6,2I  4,5I  3,9 |(Long-term interest rates (a)
II  13,7 [
I  I11,2|  10,8 
II  10,8 |
I  I
(1) 1986-89, Commission forecasts (COMET-model), January 1985. 
(a) Absolute percentage
3. The foreseeable growth pattern would allow most sectors to reach 
better production levels than at the start of the decade
The cessation of growth that occurred during the period 1981 to 1983 
had a considerable impact on almost all steel-processing sectors, 
beginning with plant and machinery manufacturers and the construction 
industry. By contrast, the manufacture of transport equipment and 
electrical engineering provided notable exceptions to the downward or 
stagnating trends, since private consumption performed relatively 
well.

1/6
During 1984, these sectors managed to raise production overall, with 
the exception of means of transport, which experienced the effects of 
social conflicts in the Federal Republic of Germany.
In a climate of investment-led growth, most of the steel-processing 
sectors should be able to sustain growth during the second half of the 
1980s, but at rates which will not suffice in all cases to offset the 
effects of a still-declining specific consumption of steel.  It can be 
expected, therefore, that between now and 1990 steel consumption will 
not exceed the level it reached in 1984.
The sectors which should benefit directly from this favourable climate 
for industrial investment are mechanical engineering and, potentially, 
structural steel work.  As regards the former, it is almost certain 
that unit weight reductions will prevent the increase in activity from 
causing a corresponding increase in the steel tonnage produced: with 
many types of machine, a significant increase can be observed in 
performance per unit of weight, partly as a result of new technology, 
e.g. digital controls in place of heavier, mechanical systems.
The size of the increase in structural steelwork - the sector depends 
primarily on the construction of industrial and commercial buildings - 
will depend on the sector's ability to increase its penetration of the 
building market (to the detriment of concrete, with the emphasis on 
shorter building times) and on the impact which the expansion of 
investment will have on demand for this type of construction.
Generally speaking, investment will be aimed at the rationalization 
rather than the expansion of production equipment, which would seem to 
exclude a heavy-industry sector such as a boilermaking from receiving 
its full share of such investment.
Finally, the metal articles industry, which in the past has been 
particularly responsive to the expansion of investment, could be 
stimulated, provided that new materials do not result in the excessive 
erosion of markets in this sector (e.g. springs made of composite 
materials).

1/7
In building and civil engineering there will be no further contraction 
below the level reached in 1983 (1984 already saw this level 
stabilize). Housing construction, however, should not exceed the 
levels dictated by demographic and purchase power limitations. 
However, the expected recovery will not be greater than that in 
housing construction, given the continuing depressed condition of the 
civil engineering sector. Obviously, projects such as the possible 
construction of a. Channel tunnel or any other project which might be 
undertaken within the framework of a coordinated European 
infrastucture policy, would have a considerable impact on activity and 
thus on steel consumption.
The same is probably true of shipbuiIding, where international 
forecasts indicate a recovery worldwide to 1981 and 1982 levels 
towards the end of the decade, but with major changes in the 
production pattern (more complex, special-purpose vessels).
The sectors which produce mainly consumer durables, i.e. car 
manufacturing and electrical engineering, will continue to provide a 
fairly firm base for private-consumption demand. As regards the 
last-mentioned of these, it should be stressed that only products with 
a low steel content (audiovisual and information processing equipment) 
are the cause of this increase, whereas products of interest to the 
steel industry generally remain at the same level (household 
electricals, with the exception of certain items such as dishwashers 
and microwave ovens).
The cans and metal boxes sector, which is competing hard with rival 
forms of packaging, could maintain its level, or even register a 
slight increase (compared with 1981) as a result of expansion in 
certain sections of the market (e.g. pet foods).
The "other users" sectors, where demand primarily reflects investment 
for replacement by, say, the extractive industries, the railways and 
the steel industry itself - as well as those sectors which are 
difficult to pin down such as agriculture or precision engineering - 
do not seem to contain any major sections where demand can be expected 
to increase (with the possible exception of high-speed railway 
engineering).

1/8
The growth curve for the manufacture of steel tubes and the other 
preliminary processing sectors - which lie between the abovementioned 
"end - user" sectors and the steel industry proper - should not differ 
from that for end-user sectors, especially as certain products (e.g. 
castings) are also liable to be affected by the reduction in specific 
consumption. Certain subsectors such as wire-drawing, cold-forming 
and deepdrawing will very probably maintain their level of production, 
however, or even increase it, since their products can be substituted 
for less elaborate (ECSC) steel products in a great many uses. This 
is not a general trend, however, and must be seen in the context of 
downward trends for specific consumption, including sometimes the 
replacement of one steel product with another (see below).
Finally, the production of steel tubes should remain stable at 1982-83 
production levels, after the export boom in 1981.

1/9
Development of the main steel processing sectors 
(1981 production = 100)
|  TYPEI I
|  OFI YEAR
|  INDEX|  197519801981119821983e1984e|1990 |
|(1)I
|Mechanical engineeringI
I  AI
I  97102100 |969395 |99-103 |
|  (P)|(101)(103)(100)|(96)(92)(93) |92- 96 |
|Electrical engineering I  AI  85103100 |102104112 |122-125 |
|ShipbuiIding |  GRT|  35572100 |12399·■ I87-109 |
|Means of transport I  NI  96110100 |103106ioo |110 |
[Structural steelwork I  P (104)(ioo)|(96)(92)(93) |109-115 |
|BuiIding-civil engineering I  A 105ioo |969595 |106 |
|Metal articles I  AI  96105100 |979495 |100-112 |
ICans-metal boxes I  p|  8996 ioo |•  --  ·-  ■  I103-110 |
|Boilermaking I  p|  107106100 |100--■  ·  I90-100 |
[Miscellaneous |  - -  -  I
|Total final processing I  A|  89102100 |9999102 |103-108 |
|(NACE 31-36) II
|tubes I  p|  9089100 |8984•  ·  I92- 95 |
|0ther preliminary processing I  p 
I|  101
I109 ioo |94··-  ■  I104-109 |
e estimate
(1)P = Production weight
A = Activity index (production value or value added at constant 
prices)
GRT = Gross registered tonnage of merchant vessels launched
N = Number of cars
Note :  activity forecasts for 1990 have been obtained either from sector-
specific studies (shipbuilding, means of transport, building), or 
by taking account of the elasticity of a given sector's activity 
with respect to changes in the relevant macro-economic indicators 
(GDP, GFCF...). The range for activity in 1990 presented in the 
above table reflects in part the problems associated with the 
quantification of such elastcities.

1/10
4. Reductions in specific consumption too big to allow increases 
in demand
At sector Level, the continuing decline in the amount of steel needed 
to make a given product - generally referred to as the reduction in 
specific consumption - principally involves the following :
(i) making the final product lighter by improved design
(increasingly CAD) or by using digital instead of mechanical 
controls;
(ii) making the product lighter by replacing certain steels with
others with for instance a better quality: weight ratio (e.g.
high-strength sheet, coated sheet);
(iii) substitution by other materials (aluminium, synthetic or 
composite materials, glass etc);
(iv) reducing the amount of processing scrap by improving the
productivity of machinery (robots, lasers, etc) thus reducing
(a) the purchasing requirement for a given type of production
and (b) the amount of bad work.
It should be clear, that to a considerable extent these tendencies 
result from continuous product or process 'improvements sought by the 
steel processing industries, in order to maintain or increase its 
competitiveness in world markets.
To this list of factors should be added the .reduction in apparent 
specific consumption resulting from the fact that certain sectors are 
changing their output structure, in response to the market, and moving 
towards products with a lower steel content (in electrical 
engineering, for instance, there is a division between household 
electrical appliances and the rest of the sector), which is also 
reflected in the volume of steel products that needs to be purchased 
by the sector as a whole.

1/11
If one Looks at the trend for specific consumption by sector, it will 
be seen that although nearly all sectors are affected by this 
phenomenon, it is greatest in ECSC products, whereas non-ECSC products 
(tubes and other preliminary processing) are much less affected.
In certain cases, the latter constitute alternatives for ECSC 
products, or make it possible to economize on base materials: thus, 
drawn wire is in competition with wire rod or merchant bars, tubes and 
cold formed shapes can be substituted for merchant bars and rolled 
shapes, and deep-drawn articles can be substituted for castings in 
certain applications.
As regards ECSC products, the reductions in specific consumption have 
affected merchant steels (even in the building sector) and semi­
finished products in particular, whereas flat products have on the 
whole better resisted on account of the expansion in the specific use 
of coated sheet. This shows that the steel industry, by adapting 
supply to requirements and the problems which the user has to face, 
can control this phenomenon to a certain extent by concentrating on 
quality.

1/12
Annual reductions in specific consumption 
observed during the period 1975-1982 (%)
I
|  SECTORI
|  ECSCI  I
|PRELIMINARY PROCESSING |
I
I|PRODUCTS
I|PRODUCTS (INCL.TUBES) |
I  I
|  Mechanical engineeringI
I- 2,1I  I  
I  o |
|  Electrical engineering I- 5,5 I  - 1/5 |
|  Shipbuilding I  o |  + 17 (a) |
|  Means of transport I- 3,0 I  +1/5 I
|  Structural steelwork I- 3,5 I  - 1/5 I
|  Building-civil engineering I- 1/5 I  - 0,7 |
|  Metal goods I- 0,7 I  +0/2 I
|  Cans-metal boxes I  o I  0  |
|  Boilermaking I- 2,3 I  o  |
|  Miscellaneous | I  - I
I
|  Total
II
I- 2 , 0
II  I 
I  +0,4 |
I  i
(a) Small quantities only involved
Future trends of specific consumption
In the years ahead, there is generally no reason to suppose that these 
phenomena will diminish, although the causes underlying the trends may 
change. For instance, greater weight may be given to the influence of 
new production technologies which will reduce processing scrap, 
whereas in certain cases (e.g. motor vehicles and household 
electricals) product substitution will subside for a while for lack of 
substantial investment in this area in recent years. Whether this 
will prove true, depends however on a lot of factors which are 
generally extremely difficult to quantify, such as the price of steel 
compared to alternative materials, or the quality of the latter - many 
of them are in an experimental or trial phase.

1/13
The main points about specific consumption in the various sectors
between now and 1990 can be summarized as follows:
~ mechanical engineering:  products become lighter as a result of
improved design (CAD), the use of high-quality or special steels, or 
the replacement of steel with other products; improved steel yields 
in the manufacture of machinery;
- electrical engineering:  the replacement of steel in household
electrical goods seems to have peaked. It should be reckoned 
therefore that ECSC steels will continue to decline by about 3% a 
year, a trend which reflects the fact that as regards the whole 
sector's output the production of household electricals will 
stagnate (compare this with a decline of 5.5% a year in the period 
from 1975 to 1982);
- shipbuiIding:  given that - under the pressure of world
competition - production is shifting towards more specialized 
vessels with in general a high steel/grt ratio, specific consumption 
is not likely to fall. Substitution will not be significant either;
- means of transport (including motor vehicles):  the tendency towards
larger-volume cars could partly offset the effect of substituting 
other materials for steel, the scale of which will remain limited 
provisionally. It is reckoned that the decline in the specific
—  — consumption of fCSC steels will temporarily slow to 1% a year (with 
an increase in the use of coated sheet);
“ structural steelwork:  certain merchant steels will be replaced by
cold-formed sections (non-ECSC), and coated sheets will increase 
their share of the market; steel will undergo replacement by 
composite materials and wood to improve fire-protection and 
insulation;
~ building and civil engineering:  renovation will increase, but civil
engineering will decline, resulting in an overall reduction in the 
use of steel in this activity;

1/14
- metal processing:  lighter products (use of quality or special
steels) and less process waste (from using lasers and robots, for 
instance);
- cans and metal boxes:  possible reductions in thickness; better
quality steels may replace aluminium slightly in two-piece cans;
- boilermaking:  similar trend to that for structural steelwork;
- other uses:  same characteristics as structural steelwork or 
mechanical engineering.
5. Projection of apparent consumption in 1990
In view of the above trends and the uncertainties associated with 
sectoral activities and specific consumption - especially in 
electrical engineering and motor vehicles, where the expected slowdown 
runs counter to the historical trends - it is essential to provide a 
sufficiently wide range for internal demand in the year 1990. The 
limits of the range will be more or less contained between the 1983 
and 1984 levels. Possible increases in demand are most likely in the 
flat products sector, notably coated sheets. As for heavy sections, 
the anticipated increase is the induced effect of the increase in 
structural steelwork activity.
(Note: the range for real steel consumption in 1990 contained in the 
table below has been obtained on the basis of the following 
factors:
- the sectoral breakdown of steel consumption during the 
reference year 1981, which is the most recent year for which 
steel consumption by sector within the Community can be 
determined with sufficient precision;
- the range forecast for the development of sectoral activities 
(see the table in section 3 of this chapter), which in turn 
takes account of a degree of uncertainty at macroeconomic 
level;

the expected reductions in specific steel consumption :  these 
match broadly with the effective reductions observed during 
the reference period 1975-1982; the historical trends have 
been adjusted - because their relevance for the future is 
questionable - in the case of vehicle construction 
(substitution), electric equipment (production structure), 
and building (part of renovation and public works in sectoral 
activity).
There results, globally, a reduction of specific consumption 
(ECSC-steeIs) of 1.4% per annum in the high case, against -2% 
per year in the low case.)

1/16
REAL CONSUMPTION OF ECSC PRODUCTS IN THE COMMUNITY BY SECTOR (EUR-10)
( m il lio n  to n n e s)
I I
I I
I I1981 |  1990 HIGH ASSUMPTIONI  I
|  1990 LOW ASSUFPTION |
I  I
||Semis |Semis | |Semis I
|  SECTOR I  landLongFlatTOTALland |LongFlatTOTALlandLongFlatTOTAL|
11 liquid |  prod. prod.|  liquid|prod.prod.|  liquidprod.prod.I
11 steel |steel | |  steel I
|Steel foundries, deepII
II 1/4 1/42,8I  I  
I  0,8 |  - 1,52,4|  0,8"1/5I
2,3 |
|drawing, cutting II1 I  I I
|Forging & dropforging II 3,41  1/00/14,5I  2,8 I  1,1 0,24,0I  2,71,00/23,9 |
|Extrusion & wiredrawing 11 -I  6,9-7,0I  0,1 |  7,7 -7,8I  0,17,3-7,5 |
|Cold rolling and || -I  -4,54,5I  - I  - 4,84,8|  --4,64,6 |
|forming III I  I I
|  Tubes II 5,6
III  -
I10,015,6I  4,9 |  -
I  I9,814,7I  4,8I  - 
I9,514,3 |
I
|Mechanical engineeringII
II 0,1I
I  2,24,26,5I  I  
I  - I  1/5 3,75,2I  _I
I  1/43,5I
5,0 |
|  (excl.electrical) III I  I I I
|Electrical II -I  0,22,12,3I  - I  0,3 1,92,1|  -I  0,21/41,7 I
lengineering III I  I I I
|Shipbuilding II -I  0,31,21,6I  - I  0,3 1,21,4|  -I  0,20,91/1 I
|  Means of transport II 0,1I  1/47,69,1I  - I  1/6 7,49,1|  -I  1/46,27,6 |
(Structural steelwork 11 "I  3,41,34,7I  - I  3,7 0,74,4|  -I  3,30,74,0 |
|Building-civil engineer II “I  9,50,910,4I  - I  8,9 1,210,1|  -I  8,61/19,6 |
|Metal articles 11 ~I  3,65,38,9I  - I  3,3 6,19,4|  -I  2,95,48,4 |
|Cans-metal boxes II -I  -3,03,0I  - I  - 3,33,3|  -I  -2,82,9 |
|Boilermaking 11 -I  0,42,63,0I  - I  0,2 2,22,4|  -I  0,22,02,2 |
|  Other users II 1/5 
III  3,7
I4,69,8I  1/3 I  2,9 
I  I4,08,2I  1/3|  2,9
I4,08,2 |  
I
|TOTALII
II 12,0 
III
I  32,7
I48,893,5I  I
|  10,0 I  31,4
I  I47,989,3I  9,7I  29,5
I43,9I
83,1 |
I

1 /1 7
APPARENT CONSUMPTION O F FINISHED PRODUCTS IN T H E  CO M M UN ITY (EUR-10)  
BY PRODUCT CA TEG O RY ( m illio n  t )
I
I
I  1 
11
| 1981
I
I
I| 1982I
| 1983
I
II  I
| VII-1983 !  
| VI -1984
I
II
!
| H IG H  
| A S S U M P T IO N
II
1990  
| L O W
|A S S U M P T IO N
I
1
| Liqjid s te e l, ingots and semis  
1I
I  12,3
I11,210,1I
I10,0I  9,7
| Heavy sectionsI
I  6,5 5,9 5,5I
5,3 | 5,9I  5,5
| Merchant stee ls (a) I  16,1 14,9 14,4 15,2 | 14,6I  13,8
| Wire rod  
1I  10,1
I9,610,010,6 |
I10,9I  10,2
1
| L O N G  P R O D U C T S ,S U B T O T A L  
1I
I  32,7  
130,4 29,9I
31,1 I 31,4 i  29,5
1
| Plate y yZ irm (b)I
I  17,3 16,8 15,7I
I 16,2I  15,3
| Sheet < 3  m m  (in c l. hot-rolled narrow strip) (b) I  21,7 20,7 19,9 I21,0I  17,9
| Coated sheet  
11  8,1 
I8,4 8,5 I
I10,7I  10,7
1
| F L A T  P R O D U C T S , S U B T O T A LI
I  47,1
I45,9 44,1I
45,2 |  
|47,9I  43,9
| R O L L E D  P R O D U C T S ,S U B T O T A L  
1
1= ■ — — -- - --- ---l
I  7
9,8
I
-I76,3 74,0I
76,3 |
I79,3I  73,4
1
|  E C S C  P R O D U C T S , T O T A L
1-|
I
I  92,2
I87,3 84,0-----1
I
I89,3I  83,1
(a) in cl. reinforcing bars
(b) in cl. c o ils accordingly to thickness

1/18
6. Particular trends as regards preliminary processing products and tubes
Certain particular trends should be pointed out in the preliminary 
processing and tube manufacturing sectors. The development of tube 
production is largely dependent on export opportunities. Following 
the conclusion of the arrangements with the United States on tubes and 
pipes, fierce competition can be expected in non-Community markets, 
which may result in restricted export opportunities and a reduction in 
the volume of production. As regards quality and hence value added, 
Community tube manufacturers must try to adapt its supply to future 
market needs (in areas such as resistance to corrosion, high-strength 
tubes, offshore platforms, pipes using multiple layers of coil,very 
clean steel).
The activities of this sector will decline in tonnage terms compared 
with 1981 but may increase in value if tube manufacturers adopt a high 
profile in the sophisticated end of the market, where, in turn, more 
advanced primary products are often required.
This trend is valid, in particular, for the primary steel processing 
subsectors, an illustration being the grades used in wire-drawing 
which allow the fairly costly annealing stage of the process to be 
omitted. Preliminary processing companies are benefiting increasingly 
from this product-orientated policy. It is evident, moreover, that 
greater emphasis is being placed on high value added than on large- 
volume production. As regards metallic fibres (which can be as little 
as two thousandths of a millimetre in diameter),a porous product 
composed of eight-micron high-temperature - resistent alloy fibres - a 
humain hair is between 50 and 70 microns thick -. will be used in the 
Space Shuttle building programme.

REAL AND EXPECTED CONSUMPTION OF NON-ECSC PRODUCTS  
(TUBES AND OTHER PRELIMINARY PROCESSING)IN THE COMMUNITY, BY SECTOR (EUR-10) 1i  Mio t.
11
11981]
|  1990
IHIGH ASSUMPTION |  1990LOW ASSUMPTION
j  Sector1|Extrusion/ 
j  Wire- 
|  drawing1-----|  
Cold 
j  produc­
iti on (1)TubesOther(2)I|Extrusion/ j  Wire- 
|  drawingI|  Cold |produc­
tion (1)TubesOther(2)|Extrusion/ j  Wire- 
|  drawingCold produc­tion ( ' 1  )TubesOther j  (2) |
|Mechanical engineering11  0,9II  0,31,51,3I  1,0I11  0,3 j1,51,0I  1,0 0,31,51,0 I
|Electrical engineering 1  0,3 |I  0,5|0,10,2I  0,3 |1  0,6 |0,10,2I  0,3 0,60,10,2 |
|ShipbuiIding 1  0,1 I  0,00,10,1I  0,2 1  0,00,30,2I  0,1 0,00,20,1 I
|Means of transport I  0,7 I  0,90,91,8I  0,9 1  1,11,41,9I  0,9 1,11,41,9 |
|Structural steelwork I  0,1 I  0,30,80,1I  0,1 I  0,30,80,1I  0,1 0,30,70,1 I
|BuiIding-civil I  0,8 I  0,41,40,1I  1,0 I  0,41,10,1I  1,0 0,41,10,1 I
|  engineering I I I I
|Metal articles I  1,7 I  0,80,60,2|  1,9 I  1,20,30,4I  1,7 1,10,30,3 |
|Cans and metal boxes I  0,0 I  0,10,00,0I  0,0 I  0,10,00,0I  0 ,00,10,0 0,0 |
|Boilermaking I  0,0 I  0,00,70,1I  0,0 I  0,10,70,1I  0 ,00,00,60,1 I
|Other users I  0,8 
II  .  0,4
I1,80,5l  0,8 
II  0,4
I1,80,5I  0,8 0,41,80,5 |
|TotalI
I  5,3
II  3,8
I8,04,4I
I  6,2 
II
I  4,5
I8,14,5I  5,9 4,37,84,4 |
(1) Cold-rolled narrow strip and cold sections.(2) Steel castings; deep-drawn steel; forgings and drop forgings.

This trend in the activities of the preliminary processing sectors is 
taking place against a backdrop of increasing diversification, which 
is why traditional activities will not increase as they have done in 
the past. Foundry and forging activities may perhaps decline in 
tonnage terms, but are tending to increase in quality and value.
The low growth in rolling and forming is explained primarily by the 
upturn in the use of these products by certain user sectors (in 
particular means of transport and metal products).
Particular trends as regards special steels
Over the years, the Member States' 
increase special-steels production, 
output in 1970 to 12.5% in 1975 andsteel industries have continued to 
which has risen from 10.3% of ECSC 
15.6% in 1983.
This development is particularly evident in the preliminary processing 
sectors, where purchases of special steels have gone up from 21% of 
the total in 1975 to nearly 30% at present - a trend which should 
continue up to 1990.
There are technological and market-related reasons for this increase 
in demand.
Technological development in mechanical and electrical engineering 
requires increasingly sophisticated, high-performance products; the 
need for high-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steels to compete with 
alternative products (aluminium and plastic) is a major consideration 
in sectors where lightness is important; the developing growth 
industries (such as energy production) and the transport and 
distribution of oil and gas requires the development of steel grades 
with ever increasing physical properties.
The market-related aspect concerns more particularly the growth in 
exports of special-steel preliminary processing products, notably 
tubes and drawn wire.

1/21
The trend in special-steel consumption will probably be higher than 
that for ordinary steels and will be linked in particular to the 
reduction in specific steel consumption in certain sectors, i.e. the 
replacement of ordinary steel components with lighter, special-steel 
ones. In short, this trend will make it possible to raise value but 
wilt not affect quality.
For future reference, it must be stressed that the refinement of 
manufacturing technology in melting shops and rolling mills that has 
taken place over the last few years has made it possible to obtain 
"ordinary" steels very similar to, but not as expensive as, "special" 
steels. The fact that this division between ordinary and special 
steels is becoming hazier may provoke a crisis in a fairly wide 
section of the industry (through the overcapacity that may result).
8. Foreseeable trends beyond 1990
When it comes to long-term projections, it is to be feared that 
traditional forecasting methods (even sophisticated ones), which rely 
inevitably on extrapolation, may no longer be appropriate, since it is 
very difficult to give adequate expression to the technological 
changes which characterize our society. Nevertheless, it is possible 
at this stage to outline some features of these changes. Thus:
- economic growth is to be found increasingly in the tertiary sector 
and less and less in industry. Steel's traditional customers,
moreover, are gradually "maturing" and forming a replacement 
market. Motor vehicles and the construction industry are cases in 
point. In addition, the question of international competitiveness 
is vital for sections of threatened industries such as
shipbuiIding.
Qualitative changes in final products will probably affect life 
cycle and there will be less need for such products to be replaced 
(e.g. in motor vehicles and machinery).

1/22
- Changes in production technology will no longer be gradual, as has 
been assumed in this forecast, but more radical: thus, entire
sectors may abandon steel for other materials- In the motor 
industry, composite car bodies have already appeared on the market 
and there could be a large-scale move in this direction after 1990.
All these factors, which so far have not had a drastic effect, 
together with the constant improvement in steel processing technology, 
may force the steel market to contract further in the 1990s; it cannot 
even be excluded a priori that the market for flat products, which in 
the medium term offers the best prospects for stable demand, plunges 
into a recession after 1990 (effects of substitution).
9. Consumption of steel in the accession countries and the enlarged 
Community
Demand for steel in Spain and Portugal is estimated at about 9% of the 
1983 internal EUR-10 market; however, long products account for about 
half of the accession countries' market for rolled products (as 
against only 40% in EUR-10), a reflection inter alia of the relative 
importance of the construction industry in the Spanish and Portuguese 
economies. It is very likely therefore that the structure of demand 
in these two countries will gradually come to resemble that in the 
Community as the manufacture of consumer durables (e.g. motor 
vehicles) and plant and machinery develops. This raises the question 
at the outset of just how competitive these countries will be as they 
become intgrated in the economic area of the enlarged Community.
Steel consumption in Spain (1979) can be broken down roughly as 
follows :
Pipes and tubes 13 % 
Other preliminary processing 15 % 
Building and civil engineering 33 % 
Mechanical engineering 11 % 
Motor Vehicles 16 % 
ShipbuiIding 5 % 
Other 7 %

1/23
After the major (10%) rise in demand in 1980, the Spanish market 
remained static and even went into recession - which continued into 
1984 - in a macroeconomic climate which was similar in many ways to 
the Ten's (low growth in GDP and downturn in investment), but which 
was aggravated by the fact that distressed industries such as 
shipbuilding and electrical engineering represent such a large share 
of Spanish's industrial structure. The forecasts (for 1986) contained 
in the following table were forwarded to the Commission by the Spanish 
authorities in 1984. They assume a macroeconomic recovery from 1983 
onwards of 3% a year in GDP and 5% a year in investment. Since the 
Spanish economy did not fulfil these expectations in 1983, and only 
did so in part in 1984, it is reasonable to assume that these 
forecasts can only be achieved after a considerable delay. As 
apparent consumption in 1984 remained more than 20% below the target 
level, the 1986 forecasts for Spain can be added to the 1990 forecasts 
for the Ten.
As for Portugal, where consumption is only about 1 million tonnes, the 
preponderance of long products in the Country's demand structure 
reflects the crucial role played by the construction industry. As 
the Portuguese market is small, the (estimated) data for 1983 have 
been included in the following table - but only with a view to 
providing a complete picture - as being applicable in the context of 
the Twelve in 1990.

1/24
APPARENT CONSUMPTION OF ECSC PRODUCTS 
IN EUR-10, THE ACCESSION COUNTRIES AND THE ENLARGED COMMUNITY
_____ ________________  (million tonness)
Pr
oduct________________EUR-1Q* _____SPAIN PORTUGAL EUR-12
198119831990198119831986198119831990|1981 1983 1990
1990 I
Liquid steel, ingots & 12,310,110,00,60,60,7 •  · •  (..|12,9 10,7 10,7
semis I
Heavy sections 6,55,55,90,90,81,00,10,0..|  7,5 6,3 6,9
Merchant steel 16,114,414,61/71,92,20,50,4-.|18,3 16,7 17,2
Wire rod 10,110,010,90,40,40,70,10,1..|10,6 10,5 11,7
Long products I
subtotal 32,729,931,43,03,13,90,70,6--|36,4 33,6 
|35,9
Sheet ^ 3 mm 17,315,716,20,80,40,60,10,1I
..118,2 16,216,9
Plate O  m
Hot rolled narrow strip 21,719,921,01,82,02,60,40,3.32,6 31,435,4
Coated sheet 8,18,510,70,60,70,8!J
Flat products I
subtotal 47,144,147,93,23,14,00>50,4..I  50,8 47,6 52,3
Rolled products I
subtotal 79.8 74,0 79.3l 6,26,27,91,20,9..I87.2 81.1 88,1
ECSC products,total 92,284,089,36,86,88,61,20,9..|100,2 91,7 98,8
* High assumption

II/1
CHAPTER II 
EXTERNAL TRADE
1. Introduction
The introductory section outlined the external policy objectives to be 
pursued between now and 1990 on the basis of the likely performance of 
the Community's steel industry, and the main emphasis was on the 
following points :
- the viability and productivity of firms will be key factors in 
determining their propensity to export on very competitive markets;
- quality will be the strong point, on which all export perspectives 
will have to concentrate;
- the penetration of third countries on the Community market can not 
indefinitely be restricted by arrangements.
Whether these objectives will be achieved or not, depends primarily on 
the performance of the Community steel industry, but here we must go 
into a brief examination of some factors, that could render the 
achievement of the agreed objective more difficult.
2. The world environment
The table below indicates prospective consumption and production 
capacity in 1990. Taking a medium case hypothesis (the most 
realistic) and in view of the stagnation in world consumption (719 in 
1985, 722 in 1990),  capacities could increase by some 100 million 
tonnes, i.e. 10%, which would lead to a further inbalance between 
supply and demand.

II/2
W O R L D  STEEL PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION A N D  STEELMAKING CAPACITY TRENDS
Unit : mio t  crude stee l (1)
1
| C O U N T R Y /R E G IO N C R U D E  S T E E L | A P P A R E N T  C O N S U M P T IO N  | C R U D EI
S T E E L M A K . C A P A C . |
1
1P R O D U C T IO N  (a) 1
1(a) 1 (b) |
I
1
1 19831  1  
| 1983 | 1985 1" 0 (2 )r
1982 |1? ° ( 2 )  !
1I  I  
I  IM -H B-H |
I
| EUR-10 109,5 I  89,9 | 93,7 91-100 200,3 172,8 |
| Other Westem-Europe 34,2 i 29,6 | 31,8 33- 35 43,6 (40,0) |
| U S A 76,8 I  96,0 | 111,9 100-110 140
j  Canada 12,8 I  11,3 I 12,9 14- 16 20,3j 145 -  150
| Japan 97,2 I  66,3 | 73,5 7 3 - 8 0 159 147 -  152 |
| Oceania 5,8 I  5,5 | 7,1 8 - 9 9,1 (9,5) |
j  South-Africa 7,0 I  5,3 | 5,6 6 - 7 10,5 10,7 |
| Developing courtries 63,6 I 96,8 |T04/i 122-133 § 0 ~ 118,9 -  132,8 |
| Africa(excl.South A ) 2,7 I 12,0 | 12,4 13- 14 6,5 7,1 -  9,4 |
| Algeria 0,8 : 2,1 2,1 I
I Egypt 0,9 I 2,0 | 2,2 1,8 2 , 4 -  3,1 |
| Nigeria 0,2 I 4,0 | 4,0 1,1 1,1 -  2,4 |
| Zimbabwe 0 , 6 I 0,2 | 0,4 1 , 0 1 , 0  I
| Others 0,2 I : I : 0,5 0,5 -  0,8 |
| Latin America 28,9 I 3 , 1  I 29,0 34- 37 40,8 55,3 -  58,1 |
| Argentina 2,9 I 2,9 | 3,3 5,3 5 , 4 -  7,0 |
j Brazi l 14,7 I 9,0 I 12,0 17,3 27,2 -  27,9 |
| Chile 0,6 I 0,5 | 0,6 1,1 1,1 I
| Colonbia 0,5 I : I1 0,7 0,7 |
| Mexico 6,9 I 6,2 | 7,6 10,7 13,3 -  13,5 |
j  Peru 0,3 : 0,6 0,8 |
| Venezuela 2,3 I  1,6 I 2,5 3,7 5,1 I
j Others I : I: 1,4 1 , 7 -  2,1 |
j Middle East 2,4 I  18,7 | 17,2 19- 23 2,5 7 , 5 -  10,7 |
| Iran 1,2 I 5,4 | 4,0 1,0 3 , 9 -  7,1 |
1  Iraq I : I 0,4 0,4 |
| Lybia I : I“ 1,3 I
| Saudi Arabia I : I 0,8 |
| Others I : I 1 ,1 1,1 I
j South-East Asia “ 1  r
| (excl.Japan) 29,6 1  4 3 ,- | 45,5 56- 60 38,0 49,0 -  54,6 |
| Indonesia 0,8 : 1,3 2,5 -  2,6 |
j Korea 11,9 1  8,9 | 11,0 13,3 16,4 -  17,3 |
| Malaysia 0,4 1  : 1: 0,6 1,1 I
j Philippines 0,2 1  1,6 I 1,6 0,6 0,6 |
| Taiwan 5,0 I 5,4 I 6,4 6,2 6,4 -  8,8 |
| India 10,2 I  n , 6  1 11,5 14,3 18,9 -  21,1 |
| Pakistan :1  : 1: 0,1 1,2 I
1  Others :1  : 1: 1,7 1,9 I
| Com econ 2TÔ7) 1  211,0 I 215,0 200-210 2l0,3 210 -(220) |
| China + North Corea 45,8 I 57,0 | 63,0 75- 82 41,0 (50)- (55) |
j World 661/6 I 668,7 | 718,6 722-780 921,9 ( 0 2 0 )  |

II/3
(1) For apparent consumption, broad definition (including foreign trade in 
non-ECSC steel products)
(2) M =_ average case H = hi gh ca se B = base case (incl. only firm 
capacity extensions)
(a) Source :  IISI
(b) Source :  OECD (1984)

II/4
The expansion of new steel industries in South America has already 
made this region into a net exporter. Between now and 1990 its 
present production capacities will grow by a further 10 million 
--tonnes,.-at-least,- to—a 4otat-o£ 55-60 million, It is hardly possible—  
that Community exports to these countries will recover, at least in 
quantitative terms. The main thrust will have to be based on quality 
and on certain products (e.g. sheet less than 0.5 mm, coated products, 
etc) if present export levels are to be maintained.
But what must be emphasized even more is the competitive pressure 
these countries will exert in other world markets :  in 1984, they
already accounted for 12% of the United States' imports.
It is also difficult to foresee an increase in exports in Eastern 
Europe.  The aim of the development plans is self-sufficiency in the 
steel sector with a substantial reduction in imports. According to 
our information, export prospects to these countries will tend to 
decrease.
The Community has sent 14% of its exports in 1983 to the Far East 
(excluding Japan). This region has the highest growth rate in the 
world and more in particular its steel consumption doubled between 
1975-1983. The theoretical import requirement was 25 million tonnes 
in 1983. Between now and 1990 the region should be regarded as the 
most dynamic due to the expansion of demand in China.  Nevertheless, 
in this market it will always be difficult to deal with competition 
from Japan and the most recently established steel industries (Taiwan, 
Korea, Singapore), which at least can benefit from a more favourable 
geographical position. In view of new investments in the steel
industry within this region, and the general development in world 
competition, this market tends not to have the promising character, 
that was expected.
The Middle-East market, which had achieved exceptional levels of steel 
consumption during the last ten years, will show a declining demand 
due to the finishing of important infrastructure works, even if 
imports in Iran were to recover.

II/5
The import restriction policy decided by the United States and the 
number of export limitation arrangements concluded or under 
négociation with the supplying countries, will result in a substantial 
reduction of imports from these countries.
The remaining countries of Western Europe are entirely comparable with 
the EEC in terms of both cost structures and markets and supplies. It 
is unlikely that the balance with them will change by 1990.
Finally, the development of import and exchange restrictions in many 
developing countries, as well as the increasing trade between them, 
makes an increase of our exports into these countries more difficult.
3. Structural aspects of Community foreign trade
From this results a hypothesis of stagnation of trade on the nearest 
or traditional markets and a growing level of problems on most of the 
other markets, where steel is sold at marginal prices for a large 
number of Community steel undertakings. In this respect the Community
steel industry will have to evaluate which part of the production it
foresees to export to markets where world competition is particularly 
strong and where prices are very low.
In a general way, the steel industry will have to evaluate the
interest of maintaining a capacity, which could be useful in periods 
of high market trends, but a handicap to its viability in intermediate 
periods. In fact, export prices in general only cover marginal costs, 
and too high a différenciation between internal and external prices 
would come to subsidizing sales to third countries by Community 
consumers.
This has to be taken into account in the total context of structural 
data that characterize the Community steel industry, more in
particular :
- production structures which in general are not optimally located and 
are sometimes less harmoniously organized than the more recent steel 
industries;
- high dependence on imported raw materials;

II/6
- a relatively high level of the other production factors (costs of 
labour and energy).
In fact, the restructuring of the steel industry has also taken place 
“in many other countries outside the Community?· the gain in efficiency 
of our industry (as a result of this restructuring) will result 
therefore in a less important gain of competitiveness vis-à-vis the 
world competition.
The Community steel industry should not exclude a rise of imports. The 
restriction or reductions of imports in other world regions are likely 
to make competition more intense. Moreover, the positive effects of 
the rate of the dollar can not indefinitely play the role of 
discouraging the imports.
Forecast
The table on the following page shows a perspective for 1990. On the 
basis of the reflections made in this section the data for 1990 have 
to be considered as an optimistic objective.
One must, in fact, remain aware of the effect on the balance of 
external trade of changes in competitiveness, for any deterioration 
obviously works in 2 ways :  reduction of exports and increase of 
imports. With equal volume and access to the world market, a 
deterioration in our competitiveness would therefore risk resulting in 
a considerable reduction in the balance^ the example of the United 
States, which saw imports in home consumption increase over the years 
from 15% in 1979 to 26% in 1984, stands as a warning.
On the other hand, the part of our exports, which can be qualified as 
having a low added value, remains relatively important (cf. infra 5). 
To the extent that the companies involved would not make an effort to 
become competitive vis-à-vis their third countries' competitors, we 
risk for a large portion of our exports, undergoing a significant 
deterioration.
In the extreme case of an accumulation of adverse factors, a balance 
of 5 million tonnes only would no longer be unimaginable.  The data 
contained in the table hereafter under the heading "low assumption", 
as well as those in the derived tables under Chapter III, should be 
regarded as purely indicative.

NET TRADE (EXPORTS - IMPORTS) OF THE COMMUNITY (EC-10) 
WITH THIRD COUNTRIES (millions of tonnes ECSC products
Mio t.
i------- r
I  
1981 |
I  I1982 | 1983 |IVII-1983 j  
VI -1984 |
IL1990(1)
I  H
I
Ingots and semisI  I  I  0,5 | j0,7 |I
1,3 I
I" 0,5_ 1-------
1  
0,5 
1
Heavy sectionsI  I  
I  2,0 | 1,3 I 1,4 II1,4 | 0,51
1  1,5Merchant bars I  2,1 I 1,0 I 0,9 | 1,1 I 0,5I  1,25Wire rod I  0,7 |
I  I0,3 | 0,1 I
I- 0,5I  0,25
I
SUBTOTAL LONG PRODUCTS I  4,8 |I2,6 | 2,5 |I2,5 | 0,5I
I  3,0
Hot coils and strip I  3,8 I 1,8 I 1,6 II2,3 | 1,0I
I  2,5Heavy plate and medium I  1,9 | 0,8 | 0,7 | 1,1 I 0,25I  1,0Sheet i I  5,9 | 4,4 | 4,9 | 5,4 | 4,0I  6,0(of which coated) I (1,9) |
I I(1,6) | (1,9) | (2,0) |  
I(2,0)I  (2,6) 
I
SUBTOTAL FLAT PRODUCTSI I 
I 11,6 I
I7,0 | 7,2 |I8,8 | 5,25I
I 9,5
SUBTOTAL ROLLED PRODUCTS I 16,5 I
I I9,6 | 9,6 | 11,3 I
I5,75 I 12,5
I
TOTAL ECSC PRODUTSI  I  
I 16,9 I
I I9,6 |10,3 |--------- r12
,7 |
I5,25I  13,0
I
(1) L = Low assumption 
H = High assumption

II/8
For the various categories of products the main factors to be taken 
into consideration in determining the balance are :
a) semis, ingots :  1984 exports (to the United States) were a
temporary feature; there is some possibility that the ore-producing 
countries will work out a diversification strategy; the Community's 
technical performance in the liquid phase is likely to be poor.
b) long products :  heavy sections tend to fall into the specialist
category. By contrast, merchant bars and, in particular, wire rod 
in which the trade balance was already in deficit in 1984, belong 
to the "bottom of the range".
c) flat products :  wide strip and some medium plate are bottom-of- the 
range products which explains the stagnating balance. On the other 
hand, the specialist nature of sheet (including cold-rolled and 
coated products) means that there is st iIII some chance of 
expanding experts.
THE IMPACT OF THE ENLARGEMENT ON THE NET BALANCE OF TRADE WITH THIRD 
COUNTRIES
The integration of Spain will for the Community as a whole result in a 
rise of its dependence on world steel trade. In the first place this 
concerns only an arithmetical result of the addition of the relatively 
important net balance of Spanish trade to-that of the Community of 
Ten.
The Spanish steel industry - already a large exporter of long products 
for a long time - has increased its exports to third countries during 
the period of functioning (since 1978) of the self-restraint 
arrangement of exports to the Community.
The forecast data with regard to Spain, which are presented in the 
table below, have been provided by the Spanish administration, in the 
same context as those concerning the apparent consumption within the 
framework of a "forecast 1986".

II/9
In view of the fact that the treaty of accession foresees a temporary 
Limitation of Spanish steel exports to the present Community, one can 
suppose that the situation originally foreseen for 1986 remains valid 
in the context of a synthesis for the enlarged Community and between 
now and 1990. This synthesis has, besides, only a purely arithmetical 
character, as far as the Spanish objective of maintaining an important 
trade surplus with third countries - and in a sector as sensitive as 
long products - risks affecting the viability of the firms concerned.
As far as Portugal is concerned, a country with a very small net 
balance, the maintaining of the balance of 1983 in a synthesis for 
Europe 12 between now and 1990 constitutes only a first approximation.

11/10
NET TRADE (EX-IM) OF THE COMMUNITY (EEC-10), THE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES
AND THE ENLARGED COMMUNITY
million tonnes ESCS-steel products
I EEC-10 SPAIN(1) I I  EEC-12 1
I (with thirdTOTAL|of which |  PORTUGAL|(with third |
I countries) |  with EEC-10 | |countries) |
I (2) I  I I 1
I 1981 1983 1990 1981 1985 1990|1981 1983 1990|1981 1983 199011981 1983 19901
|Ingots and1
|semis 0,50,70,50,30,60,4I-0,1 0,0 0,0I-0,0 -0,0 .. I  0,91,3 0,9I
|Heavy sect. 2,01,41,51,11,00,9I  0,3 0,2 0,3I-0,0 -0,0 .. I  2,82,2 2,2I
|Merchant bars 2,10,91,251,72,12,3I  0,1 0,1 0,2I-0,0 -0,0 .. I  3,72,9 3,4I
|Wire rod 0,70,10,250,10,30,3I-0,1 -0,0 0,0|-0,0 -0,0 .. I  0,90,4 0,6I
|Sub-total I  I I I
|long products 4,82,53,002,93,33,51  0,2 0,3 0,51-0,0 0,0 .. I  7,45,5 6,0I
|Hot-rolled I  I I I
|wide & I  I I I
Inarrow strip3,81,62,5-0,2 -0,2 -0,31-0,4 -0,2 -0,21  0,1 -0,0 .. I  4,11,6 2,4I
|  Plate ^ 3 mm 1,90,71,00,20,20,21-0,0 0,0-0,11-0,0-0,1 .. I  2,10,8 1,2|
|Sheet^ 3 mm I  I I I
|  (incl.coated I  I I I
|sheet) 5,94,96,00,40,30,41-0,1 -0,2 -0,21-0,1 0,1 .. I  6,35,3 6,51
|Sub-total I  I I I
|flat products
I11,67,29,50,30,30,31-0,5 -0,4 -0,51-0,1 -0,2 ..
I  I112,37,710,1|
1I
|Sub-totalI  I  
I  I1
11
1
I  rolled Drod. 16,59.6 12.53,23,73,81-0.3 -0.1 0.01-0.1 -0.2 .. 119.9 13.216.11
|Total ECSC- I  ,  I 1 1
|products 16,9 10,3 13,0 3,54,34,21-0,3 -0,1 0,0|-0,1 -0,2 .. 120,6 14,517,0|
(1)source :  Spanish administration. Net trade figures are based on
criteria which are not integrally identical with community 
practices (e.g. improvement trade).
^  high hypothesis

11/11
W h e re  the enlarged C o m m u n ity  w o u ld  b e  n et exporter in  1 9 9 0  o f 
1 7  m illion tonnes E C S C -p ro d u c ts  (h ig h  case), the c h a n g e  in  sc o p e  fro m  
ten to tw elv e countries p ro d u c e s different results acco rd in g  to  
product ‘ tines-(see for instance the r«a l-situation jn _ 1 _ 9 8 3 )  :  the net 
trade re m a in s practically identical for flat products b u t the 
situation is different for lo n g  products (d o u b lin g ) a n d  in  particular 
for the sub-class o f m e rc h a n t steels, w h e re  net trade tripled.
ic *  *
T h e  C o m m u n ity  steel industry co u ld  p ro v id e a  "p ro d u ct label" w h ic h  
w o u ld  indicate the quality a s w ell a s the ra n g e  o f d im en sio n s, 
services a n d  technical assistance available a n d  all other factors 
w h ic h  pertain to a  "quality" product. T h is label h e lp s ach iev e tw o  
objectives :  a n  increase in  the v alu e o f exports a n d  the creation o f 
stable flo w s w ith  various w o rld  regions.
T h is id ea w o u ld  fit in  w ith  the w id e r fra m e -w o rk  o f indirect steel 
exports (at the prelim inary processing a n d  final-product stages) w h o s e  
longer-term  objectives sh o u ld  b e  to m a x im is e  the utilization o f the 
internal resources o f the C o m m u n ity  industry, typically a  processing 
o n e. It m u s t b e  re m e m b e re d  that less th an  7 0 %  o f the C o m m u n ity 's  
steel exports are c o v e re d  b y  the E C S C  T reaty.
T h e  analysis w h ic h  fo llo w s gives details for the last f e w  years o f the 
part p lay ed  b y  E C S C  a n d  n o n - E C S C  products in  the C o m m u n ity 's  external 
trade.
5 . B rief analysis o f the external trade o f the C o m m u n ity  o f T e n  
Introducti o n
A s  the title o f this subsection indicates, this analysis co v ers o n ly  
the T e n . C o n seq u en tly , S p a in  a n d  P ortugal are reg ard ed  a s n o n - 
C o m m u n ity  countries a n d  in clu d ed  in  the "R e st o f E u ro p e "  g eographical 
area, whilst, for the p u rp o ses o f external-trade statistics, G re e c e  is 
reg ard ed  a s a  M e m b e r  o f the C o m m u n ity  since 1 9 7 8  ( C o m m u n ity  statistics 
w ith  reg ard  to  G re e k  trade u p d ated  for the priod 1 9 7 8  to 1 9 8 0  o n  the 
basis o f S I T C  data (S tan d ard  International T ra d e  Classification, 
G e n e v a ).

11/12
T h e  geographical areas d o  n o t c o v er the w h o le  o f the n o n - E E C  area. 
T h is is d u e  to the h e a d in g  "C ountries n o t listed elsew h ere" w h ic h  is 
n o t g iv en  in  the T ab les.W ith  reg ard  to the products in  question, th ey  
c o n c e rn  e x c h a n g e s o f all E C S C  steel products a n d  n o n - E C S C  steel 
products, a n d  th ey  h a v e  b e e n  classified in  increasing order o f a d d e d “  
value, i.e. the first five are co n sid ered  a s h a v in g  a  relatively lo w e r 
a d d e d  value, a n d  the others, a n  a d d e d  v alu e w h ic h  is generally higher.
B alan c e  o f trade
T h e  balance o f trade is still w ell in  surplus ( +  2 2 .2  m illion to n n es 
in  1 9 7 8  a n d  +  1 5 .6  m illion to n n es in  1 9 8 3 ) in  spite o f a  b ig  decrease. 
H o w e v e r, it sh o u ld  b e  e m p h a s iz e d  that this decrease is entirely d u e  to  
a  decrease in  exports c o m p a re d  to a  single y ear (1 9 7 8 ) w h ic h  w a s  
reg ard ed  as exceptional for trade.
Im p o rts
S o m e  8 0 %  o f o u r im p o rs  c o m e  fro m  tw o  areas - the R e st o f E u ro p e  
(including S p a in  a n d  P ortugal) a n d  the State-trading countries a n d  6 6 %  
o f these are co n cern in g  the first five g ro u p s o f products - w h ic h  m a y  
b e  reg ard ed  a s h a v in g  a  l o w  a d d e d  value. A s  this situation h a s  
re m a in e d  u n c h a n g e d  since 1 9 7 8  a n d , in  particular, a  large position o f 
o u r im p o rts h a s b e e n  c o v e re d  b y  arran g em en ts since then, it is 
difficult to foresee w h e th e r a n d  h o w  the C o m m u n ity  im ports' structure 
w ill b e  m o d ified  d u rin g  the c o m in g  years.
E x p o rts
A s  far as o u r exports are co n cern ed , the decrease fro m  1 9 7 8  to 1 9 8 3  
h a s b e e n  larger for the pro d u cts o f l o w  a d d e d  v alu e th an  for the 
products o f a  h ig h er a d d e d  value. ,
O u r  exports are better diversified th ro u g h o u t im p o rtin g  z o n e s a n d  are 
fairly stable in  the industrialised countries, A sia  a n d  the countries 
w ith  state trade. T h e  decrease n o ted  is m o r e  o r less general, a s  a  
c o n se q u e n c e  either o f the fact that certain countries h a v e  their o w n  
production centres, o r o f the fact that the flux o f exports o f certain 
industrialised countries outside E u ro p e  is v ery  irregular. If w e  take 
into acco u n t that the a b o v e m e n tio n e d  evolution lead s to a n  increase in  
the part o f the higher a d d e d  v alu e products, it is the evolution in  
v alu e w h ic h  gives u s  the m o s t valuable indications co n cern in g  the 
future o f exports o f the C o m m u n ity .

T o tal o f productsF O R E I G N  T R A D E  S T R U C T U R E  O F  T H E  E C - 1 0  
%  o f total n o n - E E C  U n its :  T o n n e s
IF lo w s  | N o n - E E Ci-------------- r|  
R e s t o f | N o rthI  I|  C entral a n d  | A s ia A fri c a O c e a n ia State-
I j  E u ro p e  | A m e ric a |  S o u th  A m e ric a | trading
I
II  I  I  II  !  I  Inationsd)
IIm p o rts|II  I  
I  III  I  I  II  I
1 9 7 8  | 1 2 .1 4 5 .9 2 5 I  5 1 ,2  | 4 ,1I  I  I  4,4 | 8,4 4 ,1 3,7 2 4 ,3
1 9 7 9  | 1 3 .2 6 2 .6 1 9 I  5 2 ,1  | 3,9 !  4,5 | 6,9 5 ,5 2 ,4 2 4 ,6
1 9 8 0  | 1 3 .5 5 5 .3 6 9 I  47,- | 6,6 I  6,2 | 9,7 6,6 2 ,3 2 1 ,6
1 9 8 1  | 9 .6 2 8 .8 7 4 I  5 8 ,8  | 4,3 I  3 ,1  | 2 ,8 4,3 1 ,2 2 5 ,5
1 9 8 2  | 1 2 .3 1 5 .9 9 4 I  5 1 ,7  | 5 ,1 I  7,5 | 3,8 7 ,5 1 ,3 2 3 ,1
1 9 8 3  |
I1 1 .9 0 4 .8 9 3 I  5 7 ,8  |
I  I3,3 I  4,9 |
I  I3,9 6,8 1 ,5 2 1 ,8
IE x ports|II  I  
I  I 1I  I  
I  II  II1 9 7 8  | 3 4 .2 6 5 .5 2 4 I  1 7 ,6  | 2 0 ,8I  I  I  7,4 | 18,- 9,9 0,3 2 5 ,9
1 9 7 9  | 3 2 .8 4 4 .1 0 7 I  2 1 ,1  | 1 8 ,3 I  5,5 | 1 7 ,1 1 0 ,7 0,3 27,-
1 9 8 0  | 2 9 .8 1 3 .1 6 6 I  2 6 ,6  | 1 3 ,3 I  7,2 | 1 6 ,5 1 4 ,7 0,2 2 1 ,5
1 9 8 1  I 3 3 .8 7 3 .2 1 2 I  2 2 ,6  | 2 3 ,2 I  8,9 | 1 8 ,5 1 2 ,2 0,3 1 4 ,2
1 9 8 2  | 2 7 .4 8 8 .1 4 8 I  27,- | 1 8 ,7 I  6,2 | 1 7 ,1 1 1 ,3 0 ,5 1 9 ,2
1 9 8 3  |
I2 7 .5 2 5 .7 2 1 I  2 6 ,2  |  
I  I1 7 ,2 I  4 ,1  |
I  I1 7 ,9 9,8 0 ,5 2 4 ,2
(1 ) including C h in a

1 1 /1 4
F L O W S  :  I M P O R T S  I N D E X  1 9 7 8  =  1 0 0  U N I T S  T O N N E
1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3  I
|  N O N  - E E C T O N N E S
|  Ferro-a H oys
|semi-products I  3.8 2 3 .3 5 6 1 1 2 1 1 0 7 1 9 0 7 4  I
|H o t rolled w id e strip I  1.4 2 9 .7 9 2 1 1 3 1 1 6 5 7 9 9 9 2  I
|N arro w  strip 2 7 3 .2 7 0 9 7 9 2 7 6 8 2 9 3  I
|W ire rod 6 1 1 .9 9 5 9 5 9 7 8 1 1 0 7 1 4 0  I
|Sections I  1.8 8 1 .7 0 3 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 0 7 1 2 7 1 3 1  I
|Rails and other railway 
Imaterial 6 2 .9 2 0 1 1 3 1 5 8 5 9 6 7 9 1  I
|  W i  re 1 2 2 .3 6 1 1 1 4 1 2 7 1 0 2 1 1 4 1 3 6  I
|H eav y  an d  m e d iu m  plate I  1.1 7 5 .7 9 0 1 1 9 1 2 7 9 8 1 1 5 1 1 1  I
|Sheet I  2.0 1 2 .1 9 0 1 0 0 9 9 6 4 9 1 9 3  I
|Tubes, pipes, etc __ 7 1 3 .7 2 8 1 1 1 1 2 4 1 0 3 1 0 9 1 0 7  I
|0ther articles 3 9 .8 2 0 1 1 1 1 3 7 1 1 8 1 0 9 1 0 5  I
|T O T A L I  1 2.1 4 5 .9 2 5 1 0 9 1 1 2 7 9 1 0 1 9 8  I

1 1 /1 5
F L O W S  :  E X P O R T I N D E X  1 9 7 8  = 100 U N I T S T O N N E S
I
l ·
II
|  1 9 7 8
II
1 9 7 9_[
11 9
8 0|  1 9 8 1I
|  1 9 8 2
II
1 9 8 3  |
I
|  N O N  - E E C
II
|  T O N N E S
I1
1
1I
I
II
I
I
I
|Ferro-a L L o y s  
|I
I
I1
1
II
I
II
I
II
|  sem i-p ro d u ctsI
|  1 .5 9 7 .6 3 3
I1
112 |  
I1 1 7|  1 3 8I
|  121 
II
1 3 5  |
II
|H o t rolled w id e  stripI
|  3 .9 2 8 .4 8 8  
1I
9 9  |
I8 8|  1 0 4I
I  7 5
II
6 7  |
II
|N a rro w  stripI
|  1 .3 1 6 .2 0 3
II
9 5  |  
|1 0 4|  1 0 4I
|  8 0  
II
7 9  |
II
|W ire  ro dI
|  1 .5 6 6 .0 2 5I
102 |  
I8 5I  7 6I
I  6 2
II
6 2  |  
II
|  S ectionsI
|  7 .4 6 1 .1 8 0  
1I
9 8  |  
18 1I  7 9I
I  5 7
II
6 0  |  
II
|R ails a n d  other railw ay  
Im aterial
II
I
|  3 0 0 .5 4 0I
I
1 2 8  |  
I1 3 2|  1 6 0I
I
|  1 3 5  
|I
1 3 2  |  
|
|  W i  re1
|  5 8 9 .0 1 2
II
1 0 5  |
I9 2|  100I
I  8 2
II
9 0  |
II
|H e a v y  a n d  m e d iu m  plateI
|  2  7 7 .6 6 5
II
9 4  | 8 7|  1 1 3I
|  8 1  
II
7 4  |
II
|S h eetI
|  8 .2 8 0 .8 4 2
II
9 1  |
I8 4I  8 7I
I  7 5
II
8 1  |
II
|T u b es, pipes, etc ... 
|I
|  6 .2 6 4 .3 3 6
II
9 0  |
I8 4 |  120I
|  1 0 9  
|I
102 |  
II
|0ther articles
II
| 1 8 3 .6 0 0
II
1 0 7  |  
|101I  9 5I
|  8 1  
II
8 5  |
II
|T O T A L
II
|  3 4 .2 6 5 .5 2 4
II
9 6  |
I8 7 |  9 9I
|  8 0  
II
8 0  |  
I

III/1
C H A P T E R  III
BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
S E C T I O N  1 . P R O D U C T I O N
1 . F in ish ed  products
F orecasts o f (apparent) internal c o n su m p tio n  a n d  external trade 
indicate that the ou tp u t o f finished p ro d u cts in  term s o f w eig h t, 
c o m p a re d  w ith  1 9 8 1  p roduction levels, w ill p ro b ab ly  d ro p  b y  5 .4 %  (h ig h  
assum ption). T h e  p ro d u ctio n  level ach iev e d  in  1 9 8 4  - a n  estim ated 
1 0 3  m illion to n n es ap p ro x im ately  - w o u ld  therefore constitute a  valid 
ceiling u n d e r g o o d  e c o n o m ic  conditions. D iffering trends fo r 
individual products c a n  b e  observed, h o w e v e r:
(i) the trend in  u n p ro c e sse d  p ro d u cts (liquid steel for casting,
ingots a n d  se m is for direct sale) is clearly d o w n w a rd s ;
(ii) for lo n g  products the trend is m o r e  o r less stagnant c o m p a re d
w ith  1 9 8 4 ; c o m p a re d  w ith  1 9 8 1 , w ire ro d  fares best;
(iii) potential stabilization (a n d  g ro w th , ev en , in  the c a se  o f c o a te d
sheet) is best in  flat products, the 1 9 8 3  level b e in g  a
springboard for their d e v e lo p m e n t.
2 . C ru d e  steel b alan ce
T h e  co n tin u ed  in ro ad s m a d e  b y  co n tin u o u s casting ten d  to increase
sav in g s o n  c ru d e  steel a n d  h o ld  b a c k  the p roduction o f c ru d e  steel 
c o m p a re d  w ith  finished products. A c c o rd in g  to the latest forecasts, 
production capacities in  c ru d e  steel for co n tin u o u s casting sh o u ld  
co n tin u e to increase b y  m o r e  th an  2 0  m illion to n n es b e tw e e n  1 9 8 3  a n d  
1 9 8 7 , ex ceed in g  1 2 5  m illion to n n es a s  fro m  1 9 8 7 , i.e. 7 2 %  o f the total 
production capacity in  c ru d e  steel o f 1 7 3  m illion tonnes.

Ill
T h e  proportionate share assu m ed  for continuous casting in crude steel 
production ( 7 5 % ) is probably a  conservative estimate, the pressure of 
productivity forcing the steel industry to use these installations to 
the m a x im u m . H o w e v er, w hether or not the effective rate of continuous 
casting is 7 5 %  or higher has little effect o n  the crude steel balance. 
R o u g h ly  speaking, a n  increase of 5 %  in the proportionate share of 
continuous casting corresponds to a  drop of 1  million tonnes of crude 
steel for w h ich  production betw een n o w  an d  1 9 9 0  is unlikely to exceed 
1 2 0  million tonnes (high hypothesis).
( N B . In  order to deduce correct production figures -i.e. w ithout 
double counting fro m  forecast apparent consum ption a n d  external 
trade balances, acount m u st b e taken of products for re-rolling 
im ported into the C o m m u n ity  fro m  n o n -m e m b e r countries. T h e  
forecast production levels for 1 9 9 0  - as regards both finished 
products an d  crude steel - take account of 6 0 0  0 0 0  tonnes of 
ingots an d  sem is an d  2 0 0  0 0 0  tonnes of w id e strip im ported for 
re-rolling.
Increase in production as a  result of enlargem ent
O n  the s a m e  basis a s that a d o p te d  in  respect o f the T e n , the forecast 
internal c o n su m p tio n  a n d  external trade o f S p a in  a n d  P ortugal increase 
C o m m u n ity  production levels in  1 9 9 0  b y  the follow ing a m o u n ts  (the
figures in  brackets are the output for 1 9 8 3 ):
, m illion t
L iq u id  steel, ingots a n d
s e m is  for sale 1 .4 (1 .4 )
E C S C  finished lo n g  p ro d u cts 8.0 (6.9)
o f w h ic h : h e a v y  sections 1 .9 (1 .7 )
m e rc h a n t steel 4.9 (4 .3 )
w ire ro d 1 .1 (0 .8 )
E C S C  flat products 4 .5 (3 .9 )
E C S C  products, total 1 3 .8 (1 2 .1 )
C ru d e  steel (for the reco rd ) 1 6 .3 (1 3 .4 )
T h e s e  increases derive entirely fro m  the 1 9 9 0  target for S p ain , since 
in  the case o f P ortugal the figures u se d  are for 1 9 8 3 . A  1 9 % , o r 
higher, m a rg in  o v er the 1 9 8 3  outturn c a n  b e  reg ard ed  a s  rather 
unrealistic.

E C - 1 0  :  P R O D U C T I O N  O F  E C S C  S T E E L  P R O D U C T S  ( m io  t)
M i o  t.
1|  1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3|  V II-1 9 8 3  | 1 9 9 0 (1 )|  V I  -1 9 8 4  |
L:  l  h
L iq u id  steel for casting, ingots a n d  s e m is  for saleI
I  1 3 ,5
I1 2 ,3 1 1 ,8 I : I 9,8t ~ \-------------
I  
|
;  i  ii,i!  j
H e a v y  sections M e rc h a n t b ars W ire  ro dII  8 ,5  I  1 7 ,7  
I  1 0 ,7
I7,0
1 5 ,4
9,97 ,11 5 ,2
10,1I  6 ,6  |I  1 5 ,9  |  I  1 0 ,7  |6 ,01 4 ,3
9,7I  I  7,4 ;  I  1 5 ,8
I 1 1 ,2!  |
S U B T O T A L  L O N G  P R O D U C T SII  3 6 ,9I3 2 ,3 3 2 ,4 I  3 3 ,2  | 3 0 ,0|  I 
;  |
H ot-rolled coils finished pro d u cts (a n d  strip)
H e a v y  a n d  m e d iu m  plate S h e e t
(o f w h ic h  co ated )III  1 9 ,4
I 1 2 ,8I  2 6 ,4  I  (9 ,7 )1 6 ,41 0 ,9
2 5 ,1(9 ,8 )1 6 ,39,62 5 ,5(1 0 ,5 )I  1 7 ,8  |  
I  9,9 |  I  2 6 ,7  |I  (1 1 ,2 ) |1 4 .5  
8,3
2 6 .6  (1 2 ,7 )II  1 6 ,9  
I  9,9 I  3 0 ,7  |  (1 3 ,3 ) 
I
S U B T O T A L  F L A T  P R O D U C T SII  5 8 ,6 5 2 ,4 5 1 ,4 I  5 4 ,4  | 4 9 ,4  ;II  5 7 ,6  |
S U B T O T A L  R O L L E D  P R O D U C T S I  9 5 ,5
I8 4 ,6 8 3 ,8 I 8 7 ,8  | 7 9 ,4  ;II 9 2 ,0
I
T O T A L  E C S C  P R O D U C T S I  1 0 9 ,0
I9 7 ,0 9 5 ,6 I :  II8 9 ,2H-----------------------|  
1 0 3 ,1
I
(1 ) L  =  L o w  assu m p tio n  
H  =  H ig h  assu m p tio n

E C - 1 0  :  C R U D E  S T E E L  B A L A N C E  ( m io  t)
M i o  t.
I
I
I  1 9 8 1
I
I1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 41 9 9 0 (1 )
I
L  I  H
I
% co n tin u o u s castingI
I  4 6 5 3 6 1 7 5 7 5
A v e ra g e  c ru d e steel yield I  1 ,2 0 7 8 1 ,1 9 4 3 1 ,1 7 9 2 1 ,1 6 1 ,1 6
C o n s u m p tio n I  110,2 1 0 1 ,9 9 8 ,5 9 6 ,4 1 0 3 ,6
V ariation in stocks I  - 3,3 - 1,6 - 0,6 - -
E x p o rts I  2 7 ,3 2 1 ,5 2 1 ,76 ,5 1 6
Im p o rts j I  7,8 1 0 ,3 10,0
S c ra p  c o n su m p tio n  in  rolling m ills I  0,2 
I0,2 0,2
C R U D E  S T E E L  P R O D U C T I O NI
I  1 2 6 ,1  
I1 1 1 ,4 1 0 9 ,5 1 2 0 ,3 1 0 3 ,0 1 1 9 ,6
(1 ) L  =  L o w  assu m p tio n  
H  =  H ig h  assu m p tio n I

Ill
S E C T I O N  2 . B A L A N C E  B E T W E E N  S U P P L Y  A N D  D E M A N D  
1 . E E C  o f T e n
T h e  divergence in  the early years o f the crisis, b e tw e e n  su p p ly  a n d  
d e m a n d  -i.e. the m a rk e d  increase in  m a x i m u m  possible prod u ctio n  in  
contrast to the stagnation in  req u irem en ts - h a s  m e a n t that the entire 
C o m m u n ity  steel industry h a s  h a d  to m a k e  a  m a jo r ad ju stm en t since 
1 9 8 0 , a n  effort w h ic h  m u s t co n tin u e in  the years ah ead .
F r o m  1 9 8 0  to m id -1 9 8 5 , hot-rolled p roduction capacity declined b y
2 8 .4  m illion to n n es (fro m  1 7 1 .7  to  1 4 3 .3  m illion tonnes), m a in ly  a s a
(1)result o f the C o m m u n ity  rules for aids to the steel industry 
T h e s e  reductions are in  line w ith  o n e  o f the objectives set b y  the
C o m m u n ity  in  N o v e m b e r  1 9 8 2  at the in fo rm al C o u n c il in  E lsenore, i.e.
to adjust hot-rolled prod u ctio n  capacity to the target o f 3 0 - 
3 5  m illion to n n es b y  the tim e  the aids c o d e  expires.
In  addition to the reductions identified in  m id -1 9 8 5 , there are
opportunities for further reductions either th ro u g h  ap p ly in g  the 
principles in  the aids c o d e  (reductions w h ic h  the C o m m is s io n  m a y  y et
b e  forced to require o n  viability g ro u n d s o r a s  a  q u id  p ro  q u o  for
granting additional aid to  that authorized in  Ju n e  1 9 8 3 ), o r
spontaneously th ro u g h  cooperation a g re e m e n ts b e tw e e n  firm s. 
A cco rd in g ly , the capacity data set o u t in  the a c c o m p a n y in g  table 
sh o u ld  b e  reg ard ed  as m a x im a , e v e n  th o u g h  " th e y  are provisional.
It sh o u ld  also b e  pointed o u t that the objective o f 3 0 -3 5  m illion 
to n n es w a s  set w ith o u t taking,acc o u n t o f the situation in  the G r e e k  
steel industry, since G re e c e  joined the C o m m u n ity  after 1 9 8 0 .
U n d e r  the assu m p tio n  o f a n  u p s w in g  in  external trade, the rate o f
utilization w o u ld  b e  a b o u t 6 6 - 6 8 %  for hot-rolled products a n d  cold- 
rolled sheet a n d  7 2 %  for co ated  sheet. C o m p a r e d  w ith  prev io u s years - 
5 8 %  in  1 9 8 1 , 5 4 %  in  1 9 8 3  - this w o u ld  certainly b e  a  considerable
im p ro v e m e n t, b u t the overall av erag e rate o f utilization w ill still b e  
substantially lo w e r th an  the o p tim u m  o f 8 0 % .
D ecisio n  N o . 2 3 2 0 /8 1 /E C S C  (o f N o . L  2 2 8  o f 1 3  A u g u s t 1 9 8 1 ).

III/6
T h e  attem p t to adjust su p p ly  to d e m a n d  w ill therefore h a v e  to b e  
co n tin u ed  a n d  will in v o lv e substantial rationalization in  the short 
term : m a n y  firm s w ill n o t b e  able to ensure their lo n g -term  viability
in  s u c h  a  clim ate, especially a s the "natural" m o v e  to im p ro v e  the 
productivity o f already profitable installations w ill continue.
A lth o u g h , overall, ex cess hot-rolled capacity c a n  still b e  p u t at 
2 4 ,5  m illion tonnes, the situation varies greatly w ith  the categ o ry  o f 
p ro d u ct:
- a s  reg ard s w id e  a n d  n a rro w  strip, the rate o f utilization sh o u ld
e x c e e d  7 0 % , w h ic h  w a s  reg ard ed  a s the m i n i m u m  that w o u ld  en ab le th e 
m ajority o f restructured steel firm s, for a  short w h ile at least, to  
re m a in  viable a n d  c o p e  w ith  the progressive liberalization o f the 
m ark et. G iv e n  the size o f this sector in  quantitative term s,
h o w e v e r, a  rate o f utilization o f 8 0 %  w ill still in v o lv e a n
additional reduction o f s o m e  6.8 m illion tonnes.
B y  contrast, there w ill continue to b e  a  substantial ex cess a s  
reg ard s reversing-m ill plate, w ith  considerable tension o n  th e 
m ark et as lo n g  a s too f e w  plants h a v e  b e e n  closed.
- a s  reg ard s lo n g  products, o n ly  the w ire-rod sector s e e m s  to  b e
im p ro v in g . T h e  fact that w ire c a n  b e  p ro d u c e d  in  plant w h ic h
n o rm ally  m an u factu res concrete reinforced bars, h o w e v e r, p lu s the 
continuing overcapacity in  the latter categ o ry  o f p ro d u ct threaten 
to  upset the balance in  this sector.
It is o b v io u s in  this context that firm s' in v estm en t policies w ill 
h a v e  to b e  directed principally at consolidating the factors w h ic h  are 
likely to im p ro v e  profitability a n d  p ro d u ct quality, av o id in g  a n y  
increase in  the overall level o f production capacity. T h is is also 
the line w h ic h  the C o m m is s io n  w ill tak e in  its reports pursu an t to  
A rticle 5 4  E C S C .

B A L A N C E  B E T W E E N  S U P P L Y  A N D  D E M A N D  - 1 9 9 0
'  M i o t.
I|  P ro d u ctio n  
I  h ig hM P P1 9 8 6R a te  o f 
u t i L  i  -M P P  I  
requiredd) |I  I
Surplusesd) j M P P
1 9 8 0|  assu m p tio n
Isation T o n n a g e V I  
:  |
I.C R U D E  S T E E LI|  1 1 9 ,6
I1 6 7 ,7 7 1 ,3  % 1 4 0 ,7  | 2 7 ,0 16,1 ; %  |I  I2 0 4 ,8
II.H O T  R O L L E D  P R O D U C T S ;  iW id e  a n d  n a rro w  strip R eversing-m ill plateI  5 3 ,0  
I  7,6
I7 3 .11 4 .27 2 .5  %5 3 .5  %6 6 ,3  |  9,5 |6,8
4,79 ,3 ;%  |  33,3i %  |
;  i8 2 ,21 9 ,5
H o t flat products, totalII  6 0 ,6  
I8 7 ,3 6 9 ,4  % 7 5 ,8  | 1 1 ,5 13,2! %  |
!  I1 0 1 ,5
H e a v y  sections 
L ight sections W ire  ro dII  7,4 I  1 5 ,8I  1 1 ,21 3 .2
2 8 .2  
1 4 ,45 6 ,1  %  
5 6 ,0  %  
7 7 ,8  %9,3 |  
1 9 ,8  |  1 4 ,0  j4,0
8 ,5
0,43 0 .1  %  |
3 0 .1  %  |  
3 ,1 ;%  |1 6 ,1
3 5 ,11 8 ,7
L o n g  products, totalII  3 4 ,4
I5 5 ,9 6 1 ,5  % 4 3 ,0  | 1 2 ,9 2 3 ,1 ;%  | 6 9 ,9
H ot-rolled products, totalII  9 5 ,0
I1 4 3 ,3 6 6 ,3  % 1 1 8 ,8  | 2 4 ,5r1 7 ,1  %  |
!  I1 7 1 ,7
III. O T H E R  F I N I S H E D  P R O D U C T S"T"I;  I
C o ld  sheet C o a te d  sheetI  3 0 ,5  I  1 3 ,3
I4 4 ,81 8 ,46 8 ,1  %  7 2 ,2  %3 8 ,1  |1 6 ,6  j6.7
1 .815,0%  |  9,8 %  j
I4 4 ,91 5 ,5
(1 ) B o th  M P P  required a n d  surpluses h a v e  b e e n  calculated o n  the basis o f a  utilization rate o f 8 5  %  in  respect o f c ru d e  steel a n d  8 0  %  in  respect o f rolled products.

III/8
2 . Im p a c t o f en la rg e m en t o n  the b alan ce b e tw e e n  su p p ly  a n d  d e m a n d
W h e r e a s  the restructuring o f the C o m m u n ity  steel industry w ill ach iev e 
the objectives set in  N o v e m b e r  1 9 8 2 , the S p a n ish  steel industry w ill 
-- require-m ore-tim e,-and-specfal-conditions .after.1 9 8 5 , to im p le m e n t the 
restructuring m e a su re s p ro v id ed  for in  the A c c e ssio n  T reaty.
T h e  capacity forecasts for 1 9 8 6 /8 8  g iv en  b e lo w  are therefore o n ly  v e ry  
in co m p lete a n d  provisional, especially since:
- the M P P  figures ( m a x im u m  possible production) are only a n  initial 
evaluation of capacity, based o n  C o m m u n ity  criteria, an d  are likely 
to b e revised ;
- u n d e r the A c ce ssio n  T reaty, the capacity o f the S p a n ish  steel 
industry w ill h a v e  to  b e  re d u c e d  to 1 8  m illion tonnes, i.e. less 
th an  the figures g iv en  b e lo w , alth o u g h  it is n o t possible at present 
to s a y  h o w  these cuts w ill b e  distributed a m o n g  the different 
categories o f product.
T h e s e  c o m m e n ts  sh o u ld  b e  reg ard ed  a s  additional to a n y  reservations 
that c a n  b e  m a d e  a b o u t the forecast production level for 1 9 9 0 .
It is clear th en  that, initially, the overall utilization rate w ill b e  
affected b y  enlargem ent; o n ly  w h e n  S p a n ish  M P P  h a s  effectively b e e n  
re d u c e d  to 1 8  m illion to n n es w ill the overall im p a c t o f e n la rg e m e n t 
h a v e  b e e n  pretty w ell neutralized.

III/9
1 9 9 0  P R O D U C T I O N  A N D  C A P A C I T Y  B A L A N C E  F O R  T H E  C O M M U N I T Y  O F  T E N  A N D  T H E
E N L A R G E D  C O M M U N I T Y
I P ro d u c tio n M P P M P P R a teo f S u rp lu s  I
I ( m i ot) e x p e c te d re q u i re d  | utili sat io n in  % II ____________ ( m
i o  t) ( m i o  t) ( % ) II  I  E E C - 1 0 ' ” E E C - 1 2 E E C - 1 0 E E C - 1 2 E E C - 1 0 E E C - 1 2 1 E E C - 1 0 E E C - 1 2 E E C - 1 0 E E C - 1 2  I
1 ( a ) ( b ) ( c ) (a )  :( b ) (b )-(c):( b )  II  H o t-ro lle d Ip ro d u c ts I.  W i d e  a n d In a r r o w Istrip 5 3 ,0 :7 3 ,1 7 9 ,1 6 6 ,3 :  17 3 : 9 ,3 :  I.  R e v e rs in g Im i  ll-plate 7 ,6 11 4 ,2 1 5 ,0 9 ,5 :  15 4 13 3 ,3 :  II
H o t  flatI
Ip ro d u c ts Itotal 6 0 ,6 65,1C Z ) 8 7 ,3 9 4 ,0 7 5 ,8 8 1 ,4  I 6 9 6 9 1 3 ,2 1 3 ,4  II
.  H e a v yI
Isectio n s 7 ,4 9 ,3 1 3 ,2 1 5 ,6 9 ,3 1 1 ,6  I 5 6 6 0 3 0 ,1 2 5 ,6  I.  L ig h t Isectio n s 1 5 ,8 2 0 ,7 2 8 ,2 3 9 ,1 1 9 ,8 2 5 ,9  I 5 6 5 3 3 0 ,1 3 3 ,8  I.  W i r e Ir o d 1 1 ,2 1 2 ,3 1 4 ,4 1 6 , 7 - 1 4 ,0 1 5 ,4  I 7 8 7 4 3 ,1 7 ,8  II
L o n gI
Ip ro d u c ts Itotal 3 4 ,4 4 2 ,4 5 5 ,9 7 1 ,6 4 3 ,1 5 3 ,0  I 6 2 5 9 2 3 ,1 2 6 ,0  II
H o t-ro lle d 1I
Ip ro d u c ts Itotal 9 5 ,01 0 7 ,5 1 4 3 ,3 1 6 5 - Z 1 1 8 ,8 1 3 4 ,4  I 6 6 6 5 1 7 ,1 1 8 ,9  I1 6 2 ,7  ) 6 6 (3 ) 17,4(3)I
I
II C o l dI
Ish e e t - 3 0 ,5 3 2 ,8 4 4 ,8 5 0 ,1 3 8 ,1 4 1 ,O H 6 8 6 5 1 5 ,0 1 8 ,2  I
H i g h  a s s u m p tio n
F o r  S p a in , im p o rts  o f coils fo r re-rolling are in c lu d e d  (o v erratin g  o f 
p ro d u ctio n ).
A s s u m p tio n  o f a  re d u c tio n  o f th e S p a n is h  M P P  to  1 8  m illio n  to n n e s.

S ectio n  3 . T H E  B A L A N C E  O F  T H E  S P E C I A L  S T E E L  S E C T O RIII/10
1 . W h ile  the analysis in  the p reced in g  p a g e s c o m p rise d  the total steel 
industry, it sh o u ld  n o t b e  forgotten that the special steels represent 
-  1 5 %  in  v o lu m e , that th ey  are characterized b y  rather different
p ro b le m s a n d  that th ey  are c o n c e rn e d  b y  the anti-crisis m e a s u re s  in  a  
v e ry  lim ited w a y .
T h e  shares o f special steels in  national steel production are a s  
fo llo w s :
1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 3
E C S C  *
o f w h ic h  G e r m a n y  
B e n e lu x  
F ra n c e
U n ite d  K in g d o m  
Italy( 5 .2 % ) 1 0 .3 %
1 3 .6 %1 1 .5 %
1 6 .8 %
1 2 .7 %  1 4 .3 %1 5 .6 %
1 8 .6 %
5 .2 %
1 6 .7 %
1 4 .3 %
20.0%1 5 .6 %
J A P A N
U S A1 9 6 5
7 .3 %
8.2%1 9 7 0
9 .9 %
9 .2 %1 9 7 5
9 .7 %
1 2 .5 %1 9 8 0
1 3 .6 %
1 3 .4 %1 9 8 3
1 6 .1 %
1 2  — % ( 8 2 )
*  S pecial structural steels ("S onderbaustahle") w e re  progressively 
b ro u g h t into the special-steel statistics b y  1 9 7 6  ( E C S C  S p ecial 
Statistical Bulletin).
A  substantial increase in  the share o f special steels c a n  b e  o b serv ed  
in  the E C S C  a n d  Jap an .
In  the U S A  a n d  the U n ite d  K in g d o m , w h e re  the share o f special steels 
is relatively m o d erate, the m a rk e t for special (nickel-based) alloys 
a n d  the corresp o n d in g  specific c o n su m p tio n  o f these are higher.
O n  the basis o f these national definitions, the w o rld  m a rk e t 
(including the E astern  b loc) is p ro b ab ly  s o m e  6 0 -6 5  m illion to n n es in  
1 9 8 4 , a b o u t 1 0 %  o f w o rld  steel production. If non-alloy special 
steels are included, it is ap p ro x im ately  8 0 -8 5  m illion tonnes.

PRODUCTION OF SPECIAL STEELS
(ingots)
Thousands of tonnes 1965 1970 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
ECSC (EUR 10) - (Special  
Steels - Bulletin Spécial de  
Statistiques from 1976)
non-alloy ingots 4,546 4,469 4,786 5,066 4,724 4,949 4,277 4,608
engineering steels 11,266 11,470 12,944 13,911 13,126 13,712 11,933 10,420
stainless and refractory steels 1,211 1,67 1,220 1,874 1,927 2,063 2,333 2,156 2,000 1,977 2,091( 2.6)
high-speed steels 61 64 59 62 61 51 44 43
CP/MS steels 12 11 14 18 18 17 18 19
( 6,000) 12,037 14,659 12,830 17,760 17,941 19,866 21,389 20,086 20,728 18,250 17,118 (19.0)
JAPAN (MITI :  Specialty  
Steels HR statistics x yield)
HEL steels 8841,235 1,111 2,329 2,060 2,616 2,678 2,794 3,481 4,360 3,752
alloy engineering steels 1,855 2,305 2,301 2,194 2,469 3,103 3,216 3,475 3,878 3,186 2,346
stainless steels 1,538 1,909 1,543 2,065 2,158 1,830 2,136 2,158 1,811 2,064 2,161
(of which, austenitic) 66% 66% 69%
refractory steels (50) (45) (48) (58)
alloy tool steels 106 113 63 84 79 80 99107 98105 114
high-speed steels 21 22 21 25 23 24 25 25 18 118 18
bearing steels (761) (671) (609) (620)
steels (of which, non-alloy) 4,822 6,028 4,905 5,660 6,091 6,075 6,578 6,584 6,339 6,338 7,240
( 3,015) 9,226 11,612 9,94412,357 12,880 13,728 14,732 15,143 15,625 16,071 15,631

I
Thousands of tonnes
USA (AISI :  Special  
Steel Production)
HEL (HSLA) steels  
alloy steels  
Cr
Ni, Cr, Ho, V  
Cr, Mo 
Cr, Mo, V  
Ni, Cr, Mo  
stainless steels
(of which austenitic)  
other alloys  
TotalPRODUCTION OF SPECIAL STEELS (continued)
(ingots) Mio t.
1965 1970 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 198Ê 1983 1984
1,158 1,9504,347 4,457 4,210 4,654 5,849 6,014 5,182 5,363 3,075
1,292 1,129 1,327 1,323 1,336 1,151 656 720 430
131 140 174 185 232 236 285 489 227
2,245 2,173 1,838 2,097 2,438 2,309 1,847 2,489 1,156
172 138 114 128 135 89130 155 125
2,022 1,537 1,593 1,591 1,853 1,828 1,356 1,652 810
1,008 1,5281,696 1,763 1,913 1,514 1,582 1,120
69% 66% 70% 69% 68% 70% 71% 71% 71%
3,062 3,162 2,187 2,146 2,787 2,715 2,933 3,429 1,245
(10,000) (11,200) 15,221 13,744 12,971 13,820 16,393 16,255 13,903 15,879 8,188

III/12
T h e  sector is heterogenious a n d  its definition is still unclear. 
T h e  C o m m is s io n  intends to fo llo w  it m o r e  closely. In  fact, the 
C o m m is s io n  w a n ts to p revent this sector ru n n in g  the risk - d u e  to 
its o w n  w e a k n e s s  o r d u e  to the effects o f the restructuring o f the 
h e a v y  steel industry - o f finding itself confronted in  the m o r e  o r 
less short te rm  w ith  the s a m e  p ro b le m s a s the h e a v y  industry. T h e  
analysis o f the capacities in  the principal subsectors o f the 
special steel industry s h o w s  in d eed  a  certain risk o f o v e r capacity 
in  the c o m in g  years.
B e lo w  is a n  illustration, particularly relating to products at the 
lo w e r e n d  o f the quality range, w h e re  p roduction facilities are m o r e  
a n d  m o r e  c o m m o n  to special a n d  ordinary steels b o th  in  m an u fac tu re  
a n d  in h o t rolling.
A )  Special-purpose structural steels, hot-rolled sheet a n d  plate :  
the facilities u se d  are substantially ( 9 3 % )  co-extensive w ith  
ordinary steel m a k in g  (integrated w o rk s).
(m illion to n n es)
P ro d u ctio n
potential 2 2 .9
A c tu a l
p ro d u ctio n  1 8 .'1
U t  ilization- 2 6  .4
1 9 7 4  1 9 8 1  1 9 8 3  1 9 8 5
Structural steel sheet acco u n ts for ap p ro x im ately  1 5 %  o f actual 
production. i
E stim ating is c o m p le x  in  the case o f the engineering steels, lo n g  
products, w h ic h  are m o r e  affected b y  their speciality areas.

III/13
B )  W ir e  ro d  :  a  L a rg e  proportion ( 6 0 % )  is p ro d u c e d  usin g  the s a m e
facilities as for ordinary steel w ire ro d  (integrated units).
. volume products :  ,
(m illion to n n es)
Production
pptential 15:3
Actual
production 12.8
Utilization
1984 1981 1983 1985
C )  Stainless an d  heat-steels :  production lines are generally
integrated, except for hot rolling mills.
('000 tonnes)
Production
capacity
A ctu al
production
U ti lization
80 81 82 83 .  84- . 85
- S
pecialities (specialist rolling mill capacity): not identified.

III/14
T h e  id ea o f turning increasingly the steel industry o f the highly 
industrialized countries to w a rd s a  stronger production o f steel w ith  
a  h igher value - co n seq u en tly  special steel - h a s e n c o u ra g e d  a  
process ^ rf x le v e to p in g  capacities-and production of-special steel in  
the countries o f the C o m m u n ity  w h ic h  is characterized b y  a  la c k  o f 
coordination a n d  co h esio n  vis-à-vis the d e m a n d  fro m  the m ark et.
A s  far a s production is c o n c e rn e d  a  rather im p o rtan t p h e n o m e n o n  o f 
substitution b egins to s h o w  itself in  this sector :  the progress in  
the production techniques o f ordinary steel (b o th  c ru d e  steel a n d  
finished products) h a s  perm itted the elaboration o f pro d u cts w ith  
s u c h  c h e m ic a l a n d  physical qualities that th ey  p ro v id e a n  
ad v an tag eo u s alternative to certain non-allied special steels. It 
is reasonable to su g g est that this ten d e n cy  is g o in g  to continue in  
the years to c o m e .
A  v ery  close cooperation b e tw e e n  the C o m m is s io n  a n d  the industry is 
n e e d e d  to prevent these risks. In  this v ie w  the C o m m is s io n  services 
a n d  the industry experts are p rep ared  to stu d y  solutions to the 
p ro b le m s o f definition a n d  classification o f special steels, w h ic h  
is the first necessary step in  order to b e  able to d ev elo p  realistic
analyses o f the special steel m ark et. _ _ „
T h
e  sector disposes h o w e v e r o f certain strong points, that h a v e  
en ab led  it to o v e rc o m e  the crisis o f the years 1 9 8 2 -8 3  a n d  that in  
particular are the technological level o f the installations, th e 
g o o d  quality o f the products a n d  the introduction into the w o rld  
m ark et.

I V /1
C H A P T E R  I V
Research and Development
D esp ite the p ro fo u n d  c h a n g e s  that h a v e  tak en  place a n d  the difficult 
financial situation that h a s  existed in  the industry, the last five years 
h a v e  see n  im pressive technological progress. In  particular, restructuring 
h a s  b ro u g h t a b o u t m o d ern isatio n  a n d  the w id e r adoption o f co n tin u o u s 
casting in  the C o m m u n ity . T his, a lo n g  w ith  other technological a d v a n c e s 
h a s  b ro u g h t a b o u t en erg y  sav in g s a s w ell a s significant im p ro v e m e n ts  in  
yield a n d  quality.
N evertheless, o v er the m e d iu m -te rm , the industry w ill still b e  faced  w ith  
fo rm id ab le com petition, w ith  nearly stagnant c o n su m p tio n  in  d o m e stic  
m ark ets a n d  little c h a n g e  in  ex p o rt opportunities. A lso , s o m e  further 
reduction in  production capacity m a y  o ccu r to bring capacity m o r e  in-line 
w ith  ex p ected  c ru d e  steel requirem ents.
T h e  structure o f o u r steelm ak in g  capacity in  the C o m m u n ity  to d ay  is s u c h  
that e n o rm o u s  in vestm ents h a v e  b e e n  m a d e  in  large integrated w o rk s  b a se d  
u p o n  the blast fu rn ace a n d  the o x y g e n  steelm ak in g  process w ith  co n tin u o u s 
casting b e in g  increasingly a d o p te d  to replace the conventional ingot- 
route.
S o m e  three quarters o f the C o m m u n ity 's  steel is p ro d u c e d  in  this w a y  w h ile 
the re m a in in g  quarter c o m e s  fro m  the steel scrap-electric arc fu rn ace 
route. O v e r  the m e d iu m  term , there w ill b e  n o  radical c h a n g e  to this 
situation s o  it is understandable that m u c h  o f the process-oriented 
research w ill b e  directed at achieving relevant increm ental im p ro v e m e n ts  
to these technologies. In  parallel w ith  this effort, h o w e v e r, there w ill 
re m a in  the n e e d  for s o m e  effort to b e  directed at d ev elo p in g  radically n e w  
process routes.
W h ile  recognising the significance o f process-oriented research a n d  the 
need, w h e re v e r possible, to im p ro v e  m an u factu rin g  facilities th ro u g h  
innovation, the present situation in  the industry is calling for a  m a jo r 
shift in  e m p h a sis to ensure that R  &  D  b e c o m e s  m o r e  m arket-driven w ith  
particular stress b ein g  p laced  o n  the m a jo r c o n s u m in g  sectors s u c h  a s 
m o to r vehicles, construction a n d  m a c h in e ry  (including electrical). It is

IV /2
vital that product-oriented research is effective in  d efen d in g  traditional 
m ark ets a s w ell a s in  ex ten d in g  the areas o f application a n d  u ses for 
steel. Issues o f m a jo r c o n c e rn  w ill include substitution b y  other 
m alerials, achieving im provedproperties (corrosion resistance, h ig h er 
strength, im p ro v e d  toughness), m o r e  consistent quality, increasingly 
stringent c o n s u m e r specification a n d  the role o f research a s a  stim ulus in  
establishing n e w  a n d  up-dating existing c o d e s  a n d  standards b y  the 
appropriate bodies.
In  this respect w e  sh o u ld  also d e v elo p  o n  a  v ery  practical basis detailed 
scientific a n d  technical inform ation for the c o n s u m e rs  in  order to get a  
p ro m o tio n al effect inside a n d  outside the C o m m u n ity . T h is effort is 
indispensable b o th  for m e e tin g  the n e e d s o f c o n s u m e rs  a n d  for stim ulating 
concrete innovations.
T herefore, the tw o  m a jo r objectives for research a n d  d e v e lo p m e n t o n  steel 
m u s t b e  :
- the a ch ie v e m e n t o f im p ro v e d  cost-com petitiveness in  the p roduction a n d  
processing o f steel alo n g  w ith  the e n h a n c e m e n t a n d  greater uniform ity o f 
quality in  its various aspects.
- the stim ulation o f steel c o n su m p tio n , in  d o m estic  a n d  exp o rt m a rk e ts b y  
the d e v e lo p m e n t o f im p ro v e d  steel g rad es a n d  n e w  u ses for p ro d u cts 
technologically a n d  eco n o m ically  m o r e  a d v a n c e d  th an  those o f o u r 
com petitors.
S o m e  o f the m a in  factors that w ill influence the direction o f 
technological a n d  inn o v ate effort in  b o th  process-oriented a n d  product- 
oriented research o v er the m e d iu m -te rm  are outlined b e lo w  :

IV /3
1 . P ro d u ctio n  a n d  P ro cessin g  o f Steel
A t  the present tim e the E u ro p e a n  steel industry h a s  a  secure su p p ly  o f 
r a w  m aterials. F r o m  the e n e rg y ^ ~ s fa n d p o iT T t 7~  co al w ill re m a in  the — 
p rim a ry  e n erg y  so u rce a n d  further effort w ill b e  directed at e n e rg y  
e c o n o m y  a n d  e n erg y  substitution in  order to ach iev e cost-savings. T h e  
direct u se  o f co al (1), in v o lv in g  alternative production technology, 
is another area o f interest offering the ad v an tag es o f red u cin g  the 
n e e d  for costly m etallurgical quality coals a n d  o f elim inating the 
n e e d  for c o k e  o v e n s  w h ic h  are a  m a jo r in v estm en t item .
A s  far a s  iron ore is co n cern ed , the present trend is to use, 
prim arily, ores that m e e t ex trem ely  h ig h  quality req u irem en ts w ith  
respect to their alkali a n d  p h o sp h o ro u s contents. F o r  the lo n g er 
term , h o w e v e r, it w o u ld  b e  valuable to d e v elo p  pro ced u res that w ill 
p e rm it the blast furnace to operate w ith  lo w e r quantities o f these 
h ig h  g rad e ores.
T h e  increasing quantities o f en erg y  b e in g  generated fro m  nuclear p o w e r  
in  the C o m m u n ity  fo cu ses attention o n  production technologies that 
c o m b in e  c o al a n d  electricity. T h is c o u ld  b e  a n  area o f g ro w in g
interest for E u ro p e a n  steelm akers o v e r the longer-term  a n d  is o n e  in  
w h ic h  p la s m a  m etallurgy a s s u m e s  a  particular im p o rtan ce.
In  iron a n d  steel production, increasing steel yield p rovides a
valuable m e a n s  o f red u cin g  m aterials costs th ro u g h  the lo w e rin g  o f 
iron ore a n d  en erg y  requirem ents. W h ile  considerable im p ro v e m e n ts  in  
yield h a v e  b e e n  m a d e  in  recent years largely b y  the ad o p tio n  o f 
co n tin u o u s casting, the sc o p e  for further progress m erits careful
ex am in atio n . In  addition co n tin u o u s casting w ill re m a in  a  k e y  area 
for research to include im p ro v in g  casting m a c h in e  p e rfo rm an c e  (b o th  
productivity a n d  p ro d u ct quality), increasing casting speeds, 
b ro a d e n in g  the ra n g e o f steel grades that c a n  b e  cast continuously a s  
w ell a s the further d e v e lo p m e n t o f sim pler a n d  less costly casting
m a c h in e s e.g. horizontal co n tin u o u s casting. T h e  latter m e th o d  w ill 
also p ro v id e the o n ly  e c o n o m ic a l w a y  to cast, in  sm all quantities, 
m a n y  h ig h  alloy steels.
(1 ) see also C h a p te r V II, section 3, se c o n d  point

IV /4
In creased yields o f course, h a s  im plications for scrap  availability 
w h ic h , o v e r the longer-term , c o u ld  b e  im p o rtan t for the steel 
industry.
F u rth erm o re, scrap  d e m a n d  w ill increase w ith  a n y  g ro w th  in  its 
c o n su m p tio n  in  o x y g e n  steelm ak in g  o r w ith  a n y  ex p an sio n  in  electric 
furnace steel production. T h e s e  d e v e lo p m e n ts raise questions 
co n cern in g  the scrap m ark et, scrap  quality, u p -g ran d in g  techniques, 
residual elem en ts a n d  the utilisation o f alternative m aterials (e.g. 
p re-reduced iron) for w h ic h  technological solutions m a y , for s o m e  
aspects, b e  sought.
In  rolling, the integration o f the co n tin u o u s casting m a c h in e  w ith  the 
rolling m ill ("h o t co n n ectio n ") re m a in s a  priority objective for 
research a n d  w ill in v o lv e c h a n g e s in  casting a n d  rolling tech n o lo g y  a s  
w ell a s in  plant organisation. In  addition, further im p ro v e m e n ts  w ill 
b e  so u g h t in  the control o f d im en sio n al tolerances a n d  in  th e 
uniform ity o f quality o f rolling m ill products.
Finally, it is evident that c o m p u te r process control, w h ic h  is n o w  
in v o lv ed  in  virtually all facets o f steelm aking, w ill con tin u e to m a k e  
a  m a jo r contribution to technological innovation in  the industry. 
W ith  n e w  tech n o lo g y  continuously c o m in g  into this field, research m u s t 
ensure it is ad ap ted  a n d  fully exploited to im p ro v e  existing sy ste m s 
a s w ell a s to d ev elo p  n e w  areas o f application for the steel industry.
Stim ulation o f Steel C o n s u m p tio n
Steel co n su m p tio n , in  industrialized countries a s expressed in  tonnes, 
is quite clearly at a  standstill. T h e  m a rk e t is practically saturated 
a n d  at the present tim e  users a n d  c o n s u m e rs  are o n ly  interested in  
products b a se d  o n  existing technologies o r u sin g  n e w  g rad es for h igher 
p e rfo rm an c e  products.
T h is n e w  m a rk e t configuration is d u e  to the fact that :
- c o m p o n e n ts  are better d esig n ed  a n d  s h o w  greater reliability;
- steel grades h a v e  better properties;
- in  s o m e  cases steel u ses h a v e  d ecreased  in  the face o f co m p etitio n  
fro m  other m aterials.

IV /5
T h e  situation s h o u L d  therefore n o  L o n g e r b e  see n  in  te rm s o f quantity 
o r to n n es p ro d u ced , b u t in  te rm s o f quality a n d  v alu e a d d e d . 
P ro d u ctio n  units m u s t b e  flexible e n o u g h  the ad ap t sw iftly to the 
d e m a n d  o n  internal a n d  external m arkets. T h is d e m a n d  sh o u ld  also b e  
stim ulated b e  en co u rag in g  the u se  o f steel a m o n g  users. Steel g rad es 
m u s t b e  p ro m o te d  w ith  properties that m a k e  th e m  indispensable to th e 
d e v e lo p m e n t o f m o d e r n  technologies.
T o  offset substitution b y  other m aterials (a lu m in iu m , plastics, etc), 
the lo n g -term  profitability o f w h ic h  often n e e d s to b e  d em o n strated  b y  
w a y  o f a  global e c o n o m ic  evaluation (cost o f r a w  m aterials, 
processing, shaping, recycling, etc), research efforts m u s t con tin u e 
to b e  g eared  to the specific p aram eters o f steel, especially :
- basic m etallurgical studies
- d e v e lo p m e n t o f g rad es resistant to agressive e n v iro n m en ts
- d e v e lo p m e n t o f co ated  steel
- desig n  o f alloys w ith  properties
- consistency o f p ro d u ct properties a n d  tolerances
- im p ro v e m e n t in  the quality a n d  reliability o f m e a su re m e n ts
- preparation a n d  circulation o f practical gu id es for users.
T h e  m a in  fields o f application to b e  tak en  into acco u n t are :
- transport
- m etal structures an d , m o r e  generally, infrastructures
- e n e rg y
- p a ck a g in g
- m a c h in e ry  a n d  engineering.
A s  reg ard  the u se  o f steel, existing contacts w ith  m an u factu rers a n d  
c o n su m e rs  m u s t b e  ex ten d ed  s o  a s to m a k e  for better transm ission o f 
inform ation a n d  availability o f research results.
T o  s u m  up , efforts m u s t b e  channelled to w a rd s :
- further k n o w le d g e  o f the properties o f steel
- im p ro v e d  com petitiveness o f steel a n d  steel c o m p o n e n ts
- greater p roduct quality a n d  reliability
- better standardization a n d  h arm o n izatio n  o f re c o m m e n d a tio n s a n d  
codes.t

IV /6
T h e s e  points m u s t b e  se e n  in  the current general context an d , in  
particular, in  the current e c o n o m ic  context. A c c o u n t m u s t therefore 
b e  tak en  o f :
- the cost of energy
- environm ental problem s
- savings o n  alloys.
Finally, as regards the financial resources required m ention should b e  
m a d e  of the fact that aid to research an d  developm ent is vital to the 
C o m m u n ity  steel industry. B y  com parison, the Japanese steel industry 
sets aside s o m e  1.2 to 1 .5 %  of its annual sales for research a n d  
developm ent. T his is approxim ately double the a m o u n t set aside in  
E urope.
B earin g  in  m in d  the u p s  a n d  d o w n s  o f the current e c o n o m ic  clim ate, a  
d y n a m ic  R  &  D  policy in  steel thus requires aid fro m  the C o m m is s io n  
that will gradually increase in  real term s.
In  conclusion, E C S C  R  &  D  projects m u s t m a k e  a  real contribution to  
the establishm ent o f joint research objectives in  the industry, w ith  
the e m p h a sis placed  o n  b o th  short-term  a n d  m e d iu m -te rm  req u irem en ts 
a n d  the selection o f suitable basic projects.

V / 1
C H A P T E R  V
PRICES AND CONDITIONS OF SALE
G en eral ---
C o
nstantly-recurring business cycles lasting for five years o r s o  w e r e  
a  feature o f the first f e w  d e c a d e s o f this century. In  general, th ey  
c o m p rise d  three years o f stability, a n d  th en  o n e  y ear o f c o m p a ra tiv e  
depression im m e d ia te ly  fo llo w e d  b y  a  y ear in  w h ic h  there w a s  a  fairly 
m a r k e d  reco v ery . In  s u c h  circum stances, prices w e re  a lw a y s  fairly 
stable in  general a n d  prices rarely slu m p e d . T h e  s o u n d  financial 
position o f steel firm s befo re the w a r  b ears w itn ess to this.
T h e  situation is n o w  co m p le te ly  different. T h e re  c a n  o n ly  b e  a  
significant price increase o f steel p ro d u cts in  a  situation in  w h ic h  
there is likely to b e  a  certain su p p ly  shortfall, a n d  prices are 
stable o n ly  if d e m a n d  just slightly e x c e e d s su p p ly .
In  all other cases, the ex cess su p p ly  c u a se d  b y  the existence o f 
overcapacity, results in  a  reduction o f prices, w h ic h  is n o rm a l u n d e r 
free com petition. S in c e  the periods w ith  ex cess su p p ly  h a v e  in  tim e  
b e c o m e  lo n g er a n d  longer, p ro b le m s  h a v e  arisen w h ic h  h a v e  fo rced  th e 
C o m m is s io n  to take stabilizing m ea su re s. T o  this effect it h a s  h a d  
recourse to the principles laid d o w n  in  A rticle 3  o f the E C S C  T reaty  
w h ic h  states that "the Institutions o f the C o m m u n ity  shall ... en su re 
the establishm ent o f the lo w e st prices, w h ile  allo w in g  n ecessary  
am ortization a n d  n o rm a l return o n  invested capital".
T h is fu n d a m e n ta l provision a p p ears in  the T reaty  b e c a u se  it w a s  
drafted at a  tim e  w h e n  the depleted state o f the steel industry in  
E u ro p e  follo w in g  W o r ld  W a r  II su g g ested  that there w o u ld  co n tin u e to 
b e  a  steel shortage, o r at least su p p ly  difficulties, for a  g o o d  m a n y  
years. T h is explains the provisions o f Article 6 0  a n d  the various 
basic decisions a d o p te d  b y  the H ig h  A uthority. T h erefo re the basis for 
healthy co m p etitio n  w ithin the C o m m o n  M a rk e t is the fact that unfair 
com petitive practices a n d  discrim inatory practices a m o n g  b u y ers are 
prohibited.

V /2
In  a cco rd an ce w ith  A rticle 6 0 , a  p ro d u cer c a n n o t c h arg e  m o r e  th an  th e 
prices in  his price list. H o w e v e r, h e  c a n  re d u c e  his prices to align 
th e m  o n  the lo w e st delivered prices resulting fro m  the price list o f a  
rival p ro d u cer established at an o th er point o f sale; this represents 
at least a  price cu t in  te rm s o f the transport costs. In  addition, 
the various ele m en ts o f flexibility in tro d u ced  b y  im p le m e n tin g  
decisions h a v e  m a d e  it possible u n d e r certain conditions for rebates 
o r special prices to b e  offered for various reasons: conditions 
specific to certain categories o f users, rebates for indirect export, 
for su b stan d ard  p ro d u cts a n d  seco n d s, prices for n o n -c o m p a ra b le  
transactions. F u rth erm o re, A rticle 6 0  d o e s  n o t p rev en t firm s fro m  
aligning their offers o n  the conditions offered b y  firm s outside th e 
C o m m u n ity . In  general, therefore, A rticle 6 0  h a s  resulted d u rin g  
periods o f latent over-supply, in  a  levelling d o w n  o f selling prices.
T h e  reduction in  prices re m a in s w ithin lim its a s lo n g  a s the relation 
b e tw e e n  su p p ly  a n d  d e m a n d  is n o t fu n d am en tally  disturbed, a n d  o n  th e 
condition that the c o m p a n ie s  o b serv e the price rules laid d o w n  in  the 
E C S C -T re a ty . D u rin g  the past y ears these conditions w e re  n o t a lw a y s  
satisfied to a  sufficient extent. T herefore, the C o m m is s io n  h a s  h a d  
to take m e a su re s to lim it supply, b y  im p o s in g  prod u ctio n  q u o tas 
pursuant to Article 5 8 . N evertheless, it h a d  to reco g n ize that, in  a  
n u m b e r  o f cases, c o m p a n ie s  h a d  violated the price rules. In  v ie w  o f 
these infractions, it h a s  im p o s e d  sanctions o n  the c o m p a n ie s  in v o lv ed .
1 9 7 3 -1 9 7 4 : T h e  last tw o  exceptional years
A  c o m b in a tio n  o f several cyclical factors (e c o n o m ic  upturn, depletion 
o f stocks o r e v e n  a  shortage p sychosis) sp ark ed  off a  s u d d e n  b o o m  in  
d e m a n d  a s  fro m  m id -1 9 7 2 . O rd e rs for finished ordinary (i.e. n o n ­
alloy) steel products increased (c o m p a re d  to 1 9 7 1 )  b y  a n  av erag e o f 
5 5 %  o n  the C o m m u n ity  m a rk e t a n d  4 5 %  o n  the ex p o rt m a rk e t (giv in g  a n  
overall av erag e o f 5 3 .5 % )  in  1 9 7 3  a n d  1 9 7 4 . A t  the e n d  o f 1 9 7 3  orders 
c o u ld  n o t e v e n  b e  placed, o r else takers c o u ld  b e  fo u n d  o n ly  if a  
surcharge w a s  paid. T h is set off a  process o f rapid increases o n e  
after the other. B e tw e e n  early 1 9 7 3  a n d  late 1 9 7 4  the prices ro se b y  
b e tw e e n  6 0  a n d  9 0 %  (the actual figures v ary in g  acco rd in g  to c o u n try  
a n d  pro d u ct) ex cep t in  the c a se  o f cold-rolled sheet w h ic h  increased 
in  price b y  o n ly  3 5  to 4 0 % . T h e  prices o f products m o s t in  d e m a n d ,

V /3
su ch  as concrete reinforcing bars a n d  h eav y  plate, m o re  than doubled. 
Consequently, the accession to the C o m m u n ity  of the U nited K in g d o m , 
Ireland a n d  D e n m a rk , a n d  the extension of the Article 6 0  price rules/  A \to five E F T A  m e m b e r  countries took place w ithout hiccups a n d
w ithout the low er_level_ of prices in these countries affecting the 
prices charged within the C o m m u n ity  o f Six.
T h e re  c a m e  a  tim e  w h e n  th e. C o m m is s io n , c o n c e rn e d  a b o u t the rapidity 
a n d  size o f th e producers' price increases,had to interviene in  th e 
m ark et. In  M a y  1 9 7 4  it e v e n  d e cid ed  to s lo w  d o w n  the rate o f increase 
o v e r a  perio d  o f eight m o n th s  b y  n o t allo w in g  n e w  prices to b e  c h a rg e d  
until a  fortnight h a d  elap sed  fro m  the date o f their notification. 
Im p o rt duties for certain p ro d u cers w e re  e v e n  lo w e re d  for a  short tim e  
period, in  order to e n c o u ra g e  im p o rts a n d  to alleviate the pressure in  
the internal m ark et. In  the light o f later d ev elo p m en ts, it d id  n o t 
h a v e  to  im p le m e n t its intention o f setting m a x i m u m  prices p u rsu an t to  
A rticle 6 1  o f the T reaty.
3 . 1 9 7 7 -1 9 8 5 : T h e  crisis y ears
T h e  s lo w d o w n  fo llo w ed  b y  the c o m p le te  halt o b se rv e d  in  the se c o n d  half 
o f 1 9 7 4  b u t w h ic h  w a s  really felt a s  fro m  th e first quarter o f 1 9 7 5  
o n c e  the order b o o k  h a d  d w in d led , im m e d ia te ly  set off a  price s lu m p . 
In  the early m o n th s  o f 1 9 7 5  prices fell b y  b e tw e e n  4 0  a n d  4 5 % .
In  A p ril 1 9 7 7 , after establishing that th e indirect m e a n s  available 
u n d e r A rticle 4 6  w e re  insufficient a n d  that a  m an ifest crisis w a s  in  
the offing, the C o m m is s io n  set m i n i m u m  prices for concrete reinforcing 
b ars w h ic h  h a d  re a c h e d  a b n o rm a lly  l o w  price levels o u t o f all 
proportion to prod u ctio n  costs. It also pub lish ed  g u id an c e  prices fo r 
the m a in  steel products in  order to incite firm s to ad ap t their prices 
to b e  c o m p atib le w ith  g en eral interest. In  Jan u ary  1 9 7 8 , th e 
C o m m is s io n  set m in i m u m  prices for tw o  other particularly sensitive 
products: m e rc h a n t b ars a n d  hot-rolled w id e  strip.
(1 ) A ustria, F inland, N o r w a y , P o rtu g al a n d  S w e d e n .

V /4
H av in g  acknow ledged that the C o m m u n ity  steel industry w a s  in  a  state 
o f m anifest crisis, the C o m m issio n  set u p  in O ctober 1 9 8 0  a  system  o f 
production quotas pursuant to Article 5 8  of the Treaty.
In · January 1 9 8 2  the C o m m issio n  published price guidelines indicating 
that firms' conditions o f sale should secure for th e m  a n  increase in 
revenue of aproxim ately 1 5 %  to enable th e m  to restructure a n d  bear the 
regional a n d  social consequences.
In  January 1 983, after ascertaining that the m arket situation h a d  
prevented the guidelines fro m  being fully successful, the C o m m issio n  
published n e w  guidance prices for the m a in  products w ith a  v ie w  to 
attaining the ab o v e objective. In  January 1 9 8 4  it h a d  to set m in im u m  
prices b elo w  the guidance prices, although they h a v e  b e e n  
progressively brought closer to the guidance prices as a  result of the 
increases in  A pril a n d  O ctober 1 9 8 4  a n d  A pril 1 9 8 5 .
In  this w a y  the C orm ission h as tried to pursue a  realistic policy 
w h ich  w a s  adapted to the m ark et situation.
V arious other exceptional m easures h av e b een  introduced to b a c k  u p  
these m easures concerning quantities a n d  prices.
M ention should b e m a d e  of the price rules for dealers, the guarantee 
arrangem ents, the certificate of conform ity a n d  production 
certificate, a n d  the acco m p an y in g  docum ents.
A s  a  result o f these m easures, w h ic h  h av e m a d e  Ht possible -t ü ~  avert ~  
excessive im balance b etw een  M e m b e r  States, the prices noted for m o s t 
of the products in  the first h a U f of 1 9 8 5  h a v e  reached levels su ch  as 
to give fresh h o p e  a n d  confidence to firm s w h ic h  h av e already m a d e  the 
requisite effort to im p ro v e their perform ance. T h e  prices obtained in  
1 9 8 4  w ere 40-50 %  higher than those of 1974/75, but over this ten-year 
period, for exam ple, industrial w holesale prices varied b y  alm ost 80- 
9 0  % .
4. E xport sales
In general, export sales h a v e  alm ost alw ays produced less in c o m e  than 
that fro m  internal sales.

V /5
T h e  C o m m issio n  h a s never g o n e  in for price-support m easures for sales 
to n o ri-C o m m u n ity  countries. Furtherm ore, su ch  m easures w o u ld  h a v e  h a d  
little effect o n  a  w o rld  m ark et w h e re  com petition is k e e n  a n d  ev en  o n  
occasions cut-throat, particularly w h e re  the n e w  steel-producing 
countries are concerned. C onsequently, prices for large-scale exports 
h a v e  rarely b een  genuinely attractive, especially as the very 
considerable transport costs m ostly constitute a  com petitive handicap.
F o r lo n g  periods export prices h a v e  b een  as m u c h  as 2 0 %  lo w er than 
internal prices, w h ic h  w e re  not alw ay s profitable. G enerally speak­
ing, for a n  equivalent value, F O B  prices represent a n  average 
reduction o f 4 -5 %  in  a  firm's in c o m e  to cover the export agent's 
co m m issio n  a n d  the costs of transport to the port of consignm ent.
Consequently, export prices h a v e  o f course often h a d  a  fairly 
considerable although indirect im p act o n  the prices charged within the 
C o m m u n ity . In  particular those co n su m ers within the C o m m u n ity  w h o  are 
export-oriented h a v e  b een  urged therefore to d e m a n d  price reductions 
of indirect exports, in order to face com petition in the w orld m arkets 
for their transform ed products.
T h e  fact rem ains that for a  n u m b e r of firms, sales to certain n o n - 
C o m m u n ity  countries represent their naturaL  outlets w h ic h  they are 
anxious to keep.
5 . Im port prices
Since 1 9 7 8  the C o m m issio n  h as negotiated a n d  renew ed, year b y  year,
arrangem ents w ith the 1 5  m a in  countries w h ic h  export steel products to 
( 1  )the Community .  Under these arrangements the importing countries 
have undertaken not to aggravate the imbalance within the Community by 
bringing their deliveries into line with the volumes which Community 
producers are permitted under the production quota system and to 
charge prices based on Community provisions, less a "penetration
(1)Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, 
Romania, Czechoslovakia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, South Africa 
and Brazil.

V /6
m argin" not exceeding 6 % . In  return, the C o m m u n ity  h as declined to 
take retaliatory action, a n d  in  particular anti-dum ping m easures, 
vis-à-vis these countries as far as they respected the term s of the 
arrangem ents.
F o r the other n o n -C o m m u n ity  countries w h ic h  h a v e  not concluded 
arrangem ents w ith the C o m m u n ity , the C o m m issio n  h as d ra w n  u p  a n d  
published lists o f guide prices s o  as to w a rn  th e m  that im ports at 
prices b e lo w  the levels contained in these lists m ight, in  case of 
prejudice being established, b e  liable to give rise to anti-dum ping 
suits. S y stem s for m onitoring all these im ports h a v e  b een  introduced 
in conjunction w ith the authorities in  the M e m b e r  States o n  the basis 
o f a  system  o f autom atic licences w h ic h  m a k e s  it possible to ch eck  in  
advance the quantities a n d  prices o f g o o d s to b e  im ported into the 
C o m m u n ity . In cooperation w ith the n o n -C o m m u n ity  countries w h ic h  h a v e  
concluded a n  arrangem ent or a s a  result o f anti-dum ping actions, the 
C o m m u n ity  h as succeeded in  m aintaining im ports at a  traditional level 
a n d  avoided price drops w h ic h  w o u ld  h a v e  called into question the 
pursuit o f C o m m u n ity  objectives.
C u r renci e s
T h e  strength of the various currencies is a n  im portant factor w h e re  
prices are concerned. A  w e a k  currency affects not only the particular 
country in question but also neighbouring countries a n d  possibly e v e n  
the C o m m u n ity  as a  w hole. L ik e the devaluations of the F ren ch  franc 
in 1957, 1 9 5 8  a n d  1 969, w h ic h  virtually obliged all the producers in  
the C o m m u n ity  o f S ix  to b o w  to the F ren ch  price level for m a n y  years, 
the fluctuations b etw een  M a rc h  1 9 7 8  a n d  M a y  1 9 8 3  in the E u ro p e an  
M o n etary  S y ste m  currencies h a v e  b ee n  a  m ajo r cause of disturbance in 
the price equilibrium sought b y  the C o m m issio n . F o r exam ple, the 
tension created betw een the Italian lira, the F ren ch  franc a n d  B elgian 
an d  L u x e m b o u rg  francs o n  the o n e  h a n d  a n d  the revaluation expectation 
for the G e rm a n  m a rk  o n  the other h as b een  a  constant source of concern 
in the efforts to achieve a  uniform  level o f prices throughout the 
C o m m u n ity . T h e  fluctuations of n o n -C o m m u n ity  currencies su ch  as the 
y e n  a n d  especially the U S  dollar also affect C o m m u n ity  prices, 
so m etim es to a  considerable extent. ^  In  June 1 9 7 3  the fact that the 
dollar h a d  fallen to a  record level obliged C o m m u n ity  producers to

V /7
ab an d o n  this currency for their export quotations, a n d  this h a d  a n  
adverse effect o n  prices despite the exceptionally buoyant m ark et at 
the tim e.
E v e n  m o re  recently, the heights reached b y  the A m e ric a n  currency h a v e  
penalized C o m m u n ity  producers b y  significantly^ increasing production 
costs (purchases o f ra w  materials a n d  energy products), although at 
the s a m e  tim e C o m m u n ity  exports h av e b een  stimulated.
T h e  m e d iu m -term  prospects
T his chapter h as so  far focused m ainly o n  the past a n d  the various 
price support a n d  control m easures, including those still in  force. 
T h e  purpose o f this w a s  to m a k e  it possible to get a n  idea of the 
possible consequences of a  return to a  situation of n o rm al com petition 
in accordance w ith the provisions o f the E C S C  Treaty. T h e  various 
exceptional crisis m easures (concerning production quotas, m in im u m  
prices a n d  all the other flanking m easures) c a n  b e  expected to 
progressively dismantled. A id s to the steel industry will ru n  out in 
D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 5 .
T h e  steel industry in the C o m m u n ity , w h ic h  w a s  o n  the brink of 
disaster, has m a d e  im portant restructuring efforts a n d  is m a k in g  plans 
for a  future in  w h ich  it c a n  o n ce again play a  n o rm al role. Since, 
under the best assum ptions, steel consum ption is expected to stagnate, 
steel prices c a n  not b e  foreseen to b e  strongly supported b y  the 
m arket. It is therefore likely that future price increases c a n  b e n o  
m o re  than a  strict adjustm ent of prices to variations in  production 
costs (ra w  materials, energy, w a g e s a n d  financial charges). F o r a  
product su ch  a s steel w h ic h  is not very specialized, it will thus 
b e c o m e  increasingly im portant to achieve a  cost per tonne w h ic h  is as 
lo w  as possible.
T his will only b e  achieved w ith m o d e rn  production equipm ent a n d  
constant efforts to im p ro v e productivity a n d  to avoid overcapacity. 
O n ly  the m o st efficient enterprises will b e  capable of adapting to 
this n e w  situation. U n d e r pressure fro m  users, w h o  are them selves 
eager to m aintain their ability to co m p ete o n  external m arkets, the 
best-placed steel co m p an ies will not b e able, nor will it b e  in their 
interests, to a im  at price levels w h ic h  other, less-efficient firm s

V /8
m ight L ik e  to see artificially higher. It is therefore o n  the cards 
that in  the years ah ead  the increase in  the productivity of steel 
firm s will b e  passed o n  to steel-using firm s in the shape of a  
com parative reduction in  prices.
T h e  enlargem ent o f the C o m m u n ity  m ark et w ith the accession o f S p ain  
a n d  Portugal a n d  the m aintenance of relations w ith the E F T A  m e m b e r 
countries should not cause a n y  further disturbances within the E C S C  
m arket.
O n  the other hand, com petition fro m  State-trading countries w h ic h  h a v e  
m a d e  their presence felt in recent years a n d  are im proving their pro­
ducts, m ig h t tend to u n d erm in e prices within the C o m m u n ity . Exter­
nally, the rapid progress being m a d e  in steel production in  m a n y  
industrializing countries h a s directly affected the C o m m u n ity  
countries w h ic h  traditionally export steel. N o t only h a v e  these n e w  
producers arrived as com petitors within the C o m m o n  M arket, but also 
the outlets for C o m m u n ity  producers in the countries w h e re  these n e w  
producers are based h a v e  b een  considerably reduced. T h e  C o m m u n ity  
steel industry will therefore b e  ev en  less able than before to rely o n  
exports to k eep  going. It will h a v e  to endeavour to k eep  its leading 
position b y  offering better-quality products a n d  n e w  products w h ic h  
are not yet m anufactured in  these industrializing countries.
T h e  C o m m u n ity  steel industry will, in  particular, h av e to strive for a  
bigger share o f the n e w  w o rld  export m arkets.
T h e  role of the E C U , w h ic h  is gradually b ec o m in g  a  fully-fledged 
currency, should d ra w  the attention of E u ro p ean  steelmakers. It 
should b e  studied, in  particular, to w h a t extent the use of the E C U  
w o u ld  m a k e  it possible to eliminate currency distortions. It should 
not b e  ruled out that tariffs a n d  conditions of sale but also contract 
prices an d  p ay m en ts will b e  m a d e  in  E C U . T h e  C o m m u n ity  steel industry 
should also m o re  often consider to use the E C U  in contracts for the 
purchase o f ra w  materials a n d  energy products w h ic h  h av e hitherto m o re  
often than not b een  in U S  dollars. T his w ould, for exam ple, h a v e  b een  
a  w a y  of averting w h a t h ap p en ed  in  the first quarter of 1 9 8 5  w h e n  the 
rise of the A m erican  dollar h a d  su ch  a  big im p act o n  steel production 
costs in E urope.

V /9
T h e  crisis over the last ten years h a s brought h o m e  the im portance o f 
m odernization a n d  rationalization a n d  the urgent n eed  to reduce 
capacity a n d  strive for product innovation.
In  the future, lo w  prices are unlikely jto  b e  offset b y  higher 
quantities. Sales prospects will b e c o m e  less a n d  less bright for 
sim ple products, o n  the contrary they will b e  potentially better for 
quality a n d  special steels.

C H A P T E R  V I
E m p lo y m e n t ir i the Iron a n d  Steel Industry-of the C o m m u n ityV I/1
I N T R O D U C T I O N
T h e  M e m o r a n d u m  "G eneral objectives 1 9 8 5 " dissem inated in F ebruary 1 9 8 4  (1 ) 
w a s  follow ed u p  b y  C o m m issio n  proposals concerning a  social support s c h e m e  
for restructuring in the steel areas of the co m m u n ity , dated A pril 1 9 8 3  (2).
B a se d  o n  the prospects described in "G eneral objectives 1985", the C o m m is ­
sion proposal contained a n  estimate of the foreseeable e m p lo y m e n t trend in 
the E C S C  steel sector for the period 1 9 8 3  to 1 9 8 6  a n d  a  p ro g ra m m e  of m easures 
designed, w ith the help of C o m m u n ity  aid, to facilitate the réadaptation a n d  
reem p lo y m en t of persons threatened w ith the loss of their jobs. T h is pro­
g ra m m e  follow ed a  first "social volet" adopted in 1 9 8 1  w h ic h  covered 
various m easures im plem ented in the period 1 9 7 8  to 1 9 8 2 .
1  . B a c k g ro u n d
C h a n g e s in total em p lo y m en t, b y  steel areas a n d  regions
T h e  data described b elo w  relate to the period starting in the year w h e n  
the first signs of the trend tow ards a  reduction of w orkers in the E C S C  
steel sector appeared. T h ree reference years h a v e  b een  chosen :
1 9 7 4  :  year in w h ic h  tw o  C o m m u n ity  records (w ithout G reece) w e re  
achieved :
- 155.6 million tonnes of crude steel w e re  produced
- 7 9 5  7 0 0  w orkers w e re  in e m p lo y m e n t in D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 4 .
1 9 8 0  :  year w h ic h  s a w  the im plem entation in O ctober of Article 5 8
of the E C S C  Treaty, the effects of w h ic h  w e re  felt fro m  1 9 8 1 .
1 9 8 4  :  last year for w h ic h  incom plete but useable statistics are 
available for this M e m d ra n d u m .
(1 ) d o cu m en t C 0 M (8 3 )2 3 9  final/2 of 20.2.1984
(2 ) d o c u m e n t C 0 M (8 3 )1 5 8  final of 13.4.1983.

V I/2
A n  exam ination of the developm ent of persons em p lo y ed  in the E C S C  steel 
industry b etw en  1 9 7 4 , 1 9 8 0  a n d  1 9 8 4  sh o w s  a  considerable drop in n u m b e rs 
w h ic h  led, in certain regions w h e re  this industry h a d  traditionally b een  
concentrated a n d  represented, in 1 9 7 4 , a  large a n d  so m etim es do m in an t 
share of the labour m arket, to serious a n d  in certain cases dram atic social 
upheavals.
T h e  E C S C  steel industry, w ithout G reece, suffered job cuts betw een 1 9 7 4  
a n d  1 9 8 4  (see T able A )  totalling 3 4 9  8 0 0  jobs or 44,0 %  of persons e m p lo y ed  
in D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 4 . O v e r ten years, 3 5  0 0 0  jobs w e re  cut o n  average every 
year. T his ca n  b e  co m p are d  w ith the rates observed for the periods 1 9 7 4 - 
1 9 8 0  a n d  1 9 8 0 -1 9 8 4  w h ic h  a m o u n t to 3 3  0 0 0  an d  3 8  0 0 0  posts respectively, 
but w h ic h  apply to a  progressively shrinking w orkforce an d  therefore re­
present a  larger share of the w orkforce.
T h e  sacrifices operated betw een 1 9 7 4  an d  1 9 8 4  b y  the steel industries of 
m e m b e r countries w ere not all equal in extent, s o m e  differing sharply fro m  
the C o m m u n ity  average (see T able A ). O f  all the C o m m u n ity  countries, the 
U nited K in g d o m  suffered, in term s of the n u m b e r a n d  percentage of original 
staff, the m o st drastic cutbacks, totalling 1 3 2  5 0 0  jobs or 68,2 %  in c o m ­
parison w ith the C o m m u n ity  average of 4 4  % .
Furtherm ore, during the first period (1974-80), job reductions w e re  far 
higher than the average in France, Ireland an d  the B en elu x  countries, 
whilst in the following period (1980-84), these reductions w e re  higher in 
G e rm a n y , Italy an d  D e n m a rk .
T ab le B  co m p ares the trends in each  m e m b e r  country an d  the C o m m u n ity  total 
for job losses a n d  the production of crude steel.

V I/3
It should also b e  noted that in each  of the periods 1974-1980, 1 9 8 0 -1 9 8 4  
a n d  1974-1984, the n u m b e r of job losses w a s  constantly a n d  considerably 
higher than the reduction in the v o lu m e  of production.
Jo b  losses in %
1974/80 1980/84 1 9 74/84
(1 9 7 4 = 1 0 0 ) (1 9 8 0 = 1 0 0 ) (1 9 7 4 = 1 0 0 )
- 24.8 - 25.4 - 44.0D ro p  in production in %
1 9 7 4 /8 0  
(1 9 7 4 = 1 0 0 ) 
- 17.91 980/84 
(1 9 8 0 = 1 0 0 ) 
- 6.51 9 7 4 /8 4  
(1 9 7 4 = 1 0 0 ) 
- 23.3
T h ese disparities are explained b y  tw o  m a in  factors :  rationalization a n d  
m odernization allied w ith the autom ation of production, together w ith the 
increasing share of production held b y  the m o re  efficient continuous casting 
process w h ic h  requires less personnel than other processes, a n d  w h ic h  rose 
fro m  1 2  %  of total crude steel production in 1 9 7 4  to approxim ately 6 1  %  in  
1 9 8 4 .
T h e  steel regions a n d  areas in the m e m b e r  countries w e re  all severly affected 
b y  the job losses.
F o r the m e m b e r countries as a  w hole, w ith the exception of G reece, e m p lo y m e n t 
fell in 1 9 8 4  in relation to 1 9 7 4  b y  4 4  %  a n d  in relation to 1 9 8 0  b y  25.4 % .  
T h e se C o m m u n ity  averages w e re  exceeded in the following regions (see T ab le D 1  
an d  D 2).
M e m b e r  countries - R eg io n s Period 1 9 7 4 -1 9 8 4 Period 1 9 8 0 -1 9 8 4
In G e rm a n y
Sarre
A rnsberg-M ünster-D etm old44.3 %
2 7 .1  %
In  F rance
C h a m p a g n e  - A rd en n es 
N o rd  - Pas-de-Calais 
Lorraine75.8 %  
44.4 %  
5 7 .1  %55.6 %
In  B elg iu m
H ainaut-Centre-Borinage - 53.8 %
In  L u x e m b o u rg
46.0 % 14.8 %

V I/4
In the United Kingdom
S co t lan d - 64.0 %
W a le s - 68.5 % - 3 4 . 9  %
N orther R eg io n - 72.8 % - 55.3 %
N orth-W est R eg io n - 72.8 % - 40.0 %
Y o rk sh i re - 58.2 % - 46.3 %
O ther R eg io n s (S outh East, 
W e s t a n d  E ast M idlands)- 86.8 % - 54.8 %
T h e se figures that s h o w  throughout the U nited K in g d o m  the regions w h ere the 
steel industry w a s  located w e re  affected, in the tw o  reference periods, 
to a n  extent w ell ab o v e the C o m m u n ity  average. O n ly  the Italian iron a n d  
steel industry, although it too underw ent severe cutbacks, is o n  the w h o le  
healthier than the C o m m u n ity  average and, in the case of the m ergers o f 
the A bruzzi, L atium , the M arches, M olise, T u scan y  a n d  U m b ria, ev en  recorded 
a n  increase betw een 1 9 7 4  a n d  1 9 8 4  in the n u m b e r of em ployees of the order 
of 4.4 % .
2. Characteristics of em p lo y m e n t 
V o lu m e  an d  duration of w o rk
T h e  analysis of the statistics o n  the v o lu m e an d  duration of w o rk
in the iron a n d  steel industry m u st entail a  very cautious interpretation
of the figures obtained an d  take account, in particular, of the
area they cover, w h ich  can  differ sharply fro m  o n e  m e m b e r country
to another according to the system  of shiftwork an d  the rules or
social arrangem ents applied to tim e spent an d  paid time. In certain
countries, paid tim e is treated either fully or in part like tim e
actually w orked. In  other m e m b e r countries, how ever, a  distinct
line is d ra w n  betw een tim e spent o n  effective production an d  tim e w hich,
although rem unerated, is not spent o n  production.

VI/5
Subject to these reservations, the comparative development of the  
four parameters selected gives the following results for the member  
countries which provided data for the period 1980-84; these figures  
represent 99.5% of crude steel production and total persons working  
in the steel industry in the Community without Greece.
Production crude steel
Total workersNumbers of hours  
worked by totalAnnual duration  
of work based on
annual average workforce annual average  
of total workers
Million t. Ratio 1000 Ratio 1000 Ratio'
1984/1980 workers 1984/1980 hours 1984/1980
(Weighted
averages)Ratio
1984/1980
1980 127.0 100.0 633.0 100.0(1)
963.5 100.0(1) 
1.625 100.0
1981 124.5 2.0 566.2 10.6 899.7 - 0.6 1.589 - 2.2
1982 109.8 - 13.5 532.9 - 15.8 820.0 - 14.0 1.545 - 4.9
1983 108.0 - 15.0 491.6 - 22.2 743.2 - 22.9 1.512 - 7.0
1984 118.7 6.5 457.7 - 27.7 714.7 - 25.8 1.562 - 3.9
1) partial estimate
With the exception of 1981, it will be seen that there is a parallel  
in the period 1980-84, in relation to 1980, between the reduction in  
the number of hours worked and the reduction in total workers.
The production reductions imposed under Article 58 of the Treaty started  
to be felt in 1981, but it was in 1982 and 1983 that they had the  
greatest effect. The Community iron and steel industry has, principally 
since 1982, made considerable progress as regards the volume of work/  
volume of production ratio. The results obtained are particularly  
significant if one compares 1983 and 1984 when cuts in the number  
of workers totalling 6.9% corresponded to an increase in steel production  
of 9.9%. It should, however, be noted that 1983 was, in the period  
1974-84, the most unfavourable year for the steel industry.

VI /6
In addition, the statistics received by the Commission sh o w  that the  
annual duration of work for a ll workers and staff , expressed as  
a weighted average, changed only slightly between 1980 and 1984,  
dropping b > r 3.9% (see Table 6).
There w as also a  very distinct improvement of the situation regarding  
the num ber of hours not worked, in particular between 1983 and 1984.
The monthly average show s the following trend between 1981 and  
1984:
Num ber of hours not  
worked in thousands
(monthly average) %  change /1981
1981 2.166 100.0
1982 3.659 + 69.0
1983 4.462 + 116.6
1984 1.836 -  15.2
The Federal Republic of Germ any achieved the most progress in this  
fie ld . F ro m  1983 to 1984, the hours not worked dropped by 84.8%, whilst  
the production of crude steel rose only by 10.2%.
It therefore seem s that a  balance is gradually being achieved between  
employment and the volume of production. It is regrettable that this  
improvement could be obtained only at the cost of redundancies.
W Production time per tonne of crude steel  
Production
In Tables C 1  to C3, F, G  and K, the hours of work, the time spent per  
tonne, and the hours not worked were calculated on the basis of total  
s ta ff, workers and employees, on the premise that workers directly  
involved in the production of steel or in work directly connected  
with it  worked the sam e num ber of hours as the employees. Owing to the  
arbitrary separation that had to be m ade in the statistical  
questionnaires drawn up by the Commission, it  is possible that a  share,  
although small, of the hours of work relates to operations not directly  
connected with crude steel production pure and simple.

VI n
A s show n in Table F, for the Comm unity as a  whole, not including  
Ireland, Denm ark and Greece, production time per tonne of crude  
- ste-el-was as^follows:
(in hours and hundredths)
1981 1982 1983 1984
7-23 7.46 6.88 6.02
The development of productivity ratios w as as follows:
1981-1982 1982-1983 1983-1984
-  3.08 %  + 8.43 %  + 14.29 %
A s  in the case of production trends in relation to the total
number of workers / production times for crude steel rose between  
1981 and 1982, and then dropped between 1982 and 1983. This is to a  
large extent due to the fact that there were m ore cuts in steel  
production in 1982 and 1983 than there were redundancies.
Although the improvement in the productivity index in 1983 and 1984,  
of the order of 14.29 % , reflects a certain improvement of the  
situation, it must be ;seen in its true context, namely, the very  
clear upswing in the steel sector between 1983 and 1984.
The improvement noted for the period 1980-84 is also in no small  
part due to the progressive expansion of continuous casting in a ll  
integrated and automated productipn processes. Such processes largely  
eliminate preparatory work, breaks in rhythms and loading, and  
halts for maintenance and repair work. A s  a  result, fewer but m ore  
specialized shifts are required for an equal production volume.

VI/8
3„ Employment prospects in the iron and steel industry in 1990
Forecasting employment in the iron and steel industry in 1990  
is hazardous owing to the m any factors to be taken into consideration,  
so m e of which are not covered by the laws of economics nor by  
Com m unity action.
It is an inescapable fact that employment in steel w ill in the next  
six years be subjected to severe cutbacks.
Even if one accepts the m ost favourable hypothesis for 1990, i.e .  
a  production of 120 million tonnes of steel, the ongoing modernization  
of the production processes, recourse to automation, the growing  
extent of continous casting and integrated on-line production, the  
search for a  higher hourly yield and lower costs w ill necessitate  
further sacrifices. In addition to the job losses arising from these  
changes, there w ill be the departures which should have taken place  
before 1984 and which were postponed for humanitarian and social  
reasons and in order to avoid traumatising certain regions and  
areas which are particularly vulnerable owing to the economic weight  
represented of the steel industry in their total activities.
It should be added that the reductions could have different effects  
on employees and on workers. It seem s that restructuring and  
job losses have created a  m ore than normal increase (notably in  
France and the United Kingdom) in the ratio of staff to workers directly  
involved in production.

VI/9
This phenom enon can in part be explained by the fact that permanent  
shutdowns of installations generally have a  m ore immediate effect  
on production workers, whereas redundancies in the peripheral services  
(technical and commercial departments, administration, maintenance,  
repair workshops, stores, etc), in m ost cases c o m m o n  to several  
production units, usually follow so m e time after. The staff status  
of such personnel has also contributed to this disparity.
At the end of 1984, the breakdown of workers and staff w as as  
follows in the Community, with the exception of the Netherlands,  
Ireland, Denm ark and Greece. Persons in employment in steel represent  
91,3% of the Comm unity total in the ten m em ber countries (percentages  
are also given for the major producer countries):
Comm unity Germ any France Ita ly  United Kingdom
Workers 71.6 %  75 %  57 %  79.2 %  67.8 %
Staff 28.4 %  25 %  43 %  20.8 %  32.2 %
In the light of these considerations, and taking account of the decisions  
already adopted or established in principle by governments and groups  
of enterprises on the basis of decisions adopted by the Commission  
as regards restructuring in the steel industry, the following  
estimates are principally based on the parameters given below, for  
the Comm unity of Ten:
-  Crude steel production 1984  
" " " 1990119.4 million tonnes
120.0
103
- Share of continuous casting
in total production of crude steel 1974
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984  
199012.0  %
36.4 %
46.0 %
53.0 %
61.0 %  
61.0 %  
75.0 %(most favourable  
hypothesis)
(most unfavourable  
hypothesis)

VI/10
Average production time per  
tonne of crude steel1984 6 hours 15/100ths
1990 5  hours 70/100ths
workAverage annual duration of 1984 (weighted values) 1  562 hours  
1990 (weighted values) 1  406 hours
Taking account of the margin of error which is inevitable in such estimates,  
and on the basis of 120 million tonnes of crude steel produced in 1990  
the employment trend in the Com m unity iron and steel industry between  
1984 and 1990 should Lead to reductions in the workforce comparable  
to those recorded in the last three years.
It should be noted that changes in production processes and unexpected  
advances in technology can influence the forecasts.
Obviously, should the least favourable hypothesis of 103 million  
tonnes prove correct, job reductions w ill probably increase out of  
proportion to the reduction in production, taking account of the num ber  
of persons in the least productive enterprises.

VI/11
4*. Qualitative aspects of the development of the workforce
In the analysis of the structure of the workforce and the  
foreseeable trend up to 1990, three aspects are worth examining  
in detail: development of age structure, s k ill requirements and  
the reduction in working time (Table E).
a) A ge structure of workforce
The development of the age pyramid of the Com m unity steel  
industry workforce between 1981 and end 1984 is show n in the  
following graph:
Distribution by age group of  
E C S C  steel industry workforce  
at end 1981 and end 1984
WC -t t >
I-O
3ifO rJ U fiu  
1 8 0 0 0 0  ■ ■  
1 6 0 0 0 0  ■ ·  
1 4 0 0 0 0  
120000 
100000 
8 0 0 0 0  +  
600Q C 
40Û Û Ü  
20000 
0f i n n f
I I I !l !  t !  1  ! { .  ?  l  - 1  *  '
* w <
2 0 - 2 4  2 3 - 3 9Jillii,V,<;!!·;>' 
0 0 .0 ]
'1 0 -4  9U S
i· ■  ·.t  · .  ·  ·  ·1  ♦  4  ·  i  .  .
i ' ï f i ÿ
p‘s ” ' 4  C i  P j
50 -5 *1 - 35-39, 19 f j  1  
984
60*6*1
A ge groups

V1/12
The figures show  a  drop in the 25-50 age groups, combined with  
a  gradual reduction in the young age groups and the over-50  
—  — age group. This trend reflects the slowing-down of recruitment  
at the base of the pyramid and policy of accelerated retirement  
operated by enterprises with the aim of adjusting the workforce  
to declining production levels.
This trend is liable in the longer term to create a  basic  
imbalance in the distribution of age groups, characterised by  
the ag ein g  of the workforce and failure to adjust to increasing  
requirements as regards skills.
With the prospect of a large num ber of departures being necessary
between 1985 and 1990, it is probable that the trend w ill continue
over that period and that early retirement in particular w ill
continue as the annual groups reach the requisite age. A  m ore
detailed estimate of the num ber of persons involved is complicated
by a  certain num ber of factors: uncertainty as to the m inim um
num ber of skilled young workers w h o  w ill have to be recruited,
the num ber of workers leaving for personal reasons (or voluntary
departures - turnover) and the num ber of workers eligible for
early retirement w h o  w i 11, nevertheless, be retained for production
and internal m anagem ent training because of their specific qualifications.
O n  the basis of the trends recorded from 1981 to 1984, it can none­
theless be estimated generally that at least 5 0 %  of the job losses  
forecast in the preceding chapter w ill entail early retirements or  
similar measures over the period 1985-90.
This overall estimate can vary considerably according to the M em ber  
State or undertaking concerned, if  one takes account of the num ber  
of early retirements that have taken place over the last few years  
in each country, the accumulated financial cost of this type of  
measure and the various social considerations which influence early  
retirement policy. It is already clear that the margins for manoeuvre  
in certain M em ber States have becom e limited.

VI/13
b) Qualifications required
i) The vocational training situation in the Iron- and Steel Industry  
has been influenced by two factors in particular in recent years :
-  early“retirement, and _ __
-  
a  shrinking num ber of apprenticeships.
In recent years, because of the increase in early retirement, a  great  
num ber of experienced workers have been lost, and have not been  
replaced by freshly-recruited workers. O n  the other hand, the training  
of apprentices in certain M em ber States has been reduced, or, where it has  
continued at the sam e level, trained apprentices have not subsequently  
been able to obtain long-term contracts, with the results that the  
training carried on in the Iron- and Steel industry has been wasted.
ii)  The coming five years will underline the need for a  higher level of  
qualified s ta ff, particularly with regard to the following factors :
- new  production methods
-  automation and informatics
-  intensified use of technology with possible significant changes  
in production
-  staff m ovem ents caused by restructuring.
A s  a  result of these developments, 75%  of the workers will have to  
receive vocational training in the future, in order to be able to m eet  
the increasing dem ands both in the production sector and in the technical  
and other indirect service sectors. At present, up to 70%  of workers  
have received no specific training. Further developments in technology  
w ill concern not only metalworking but also in particular the electro­
workers, the control services and the administration.

VI/14
O n  the other hand, during a restructuring period, w hen  unavoidable  
staff m ovem ents take place, it is an advantage to have as wide a  
vocational training basis as possible so as to have a  m ore easily  
transferable workforce.
Moreover, one m ay expect there to be further significant technological  
changes in production methods by the end of the period under discussion.  
These m ay well have consequences for vocational training needs, which  
however cannot presently be predicted.
In general, one m ay conclude that the need for vocational training  
in the Steel industry in the coming years w ill be concentrated on :
-  an increase in the level of vocational training (assuming a  
working life  of 40 years and an apprenticeship of 3 years, a  
unified age structure would arithmetically dem and that 7.5% of  
the workforce be apprentices or getting further training),
-  the training of highly specialised workers drawn from the  
workforce its e lf, in order to cope with latest developments in  
production methods
-  a  broad level of general training, in order to allow for optimal  
transferability of personnel.

VI
c) Reduction in working time
Although working time is far from being uniform in the iron and  
steel industries of the different M em ber States, there has been a  
general trend towards a  reduction in recent years. The result  
of agreements recently concluded between the two sides of industry  
or on a  trip a rtite  basis in this sector seem s to indicate that  
it is s t ill possible to use the reduction of working time as  
a  m eans of slowing dow n or even compensating partially for the  
effect of the expected drop in the num ber of workers over the  
next five years.
The possibility cannot be ruled out of a  reduction in working time,  
if only a  slight one, over the next five years. If such a  result  
could be achieved without jeopardizing the essential dem ands of  
competitiveness and in accord with the two sides of industry, it can  
be assum ed that the logical outcome would be a positive effect on  
the volume of employment.

VI/16
5« The social consequences
a) The findings and forecasts referred to above point to the conclusion
that the w ave of changes and redundancies which has sw am p ed  the Community's  
iron and steel industry since 1974 w ill probably not die d o w n  until the  
end of 1987.
This addition of a  year to the forecasts indicated in the "social volet  
1983-86" which set 1986 as the end of restructuring and its immediate  
social consequences reflects the slippage that has occurred between  
the decisions to restructure (1) and the actual entry on stream of new,  
m ore productive installations. The Commission believes that its  
responsibility for the restructuring of the steel industry m ust as before  
be accompanied by a  social support schem e to alleviate the negative effects  
of restructuring o n  workers and regions. It w ill therefore continue  
the exceptional and substantial effort it  has m ad e to date as regards  
réadaptation and reconversion in this sector.
b) The forecasts contained in the "social volet" for 1983-86 estimated  
the total num ber of departures in that period at s o m e  150 000 persons.  
Expected job losses between 1985 and 1990 w ill for
the m ost part take place in the firs t three years of the period in  
question. Taking account of the cutbacks in jobs effected up to  
the end of 1984, it is hoped that total job losses in the period  
1983-1990 w ill not be m u c h  m ore than the figure given in 1983 for  
the period 1983-1986.
The hypothesis used in this estimate include the hypothesis of a  
production totalling 120 million tonnes in 1990.
(1) Including the elimination of excess production capacity and  
the closure of obsolete and unprofitable installations.

VI/1 7
c) The foregoing analyses sh o w  that the various changes accompanying these  
departures w ill present certain n ew  and notable characteristics: ------
i)
 a  diminution in the possibility of using earljy retirement (due to  
the disappearance of the higher age groups, and to doubts concerning  
the financing of this type of measure);
ii)  greater pressure on the lower age groups compelling them  to seek n e w  
employment in other sectors or occupations and often to re-qualify  
or re-train at considerable personal effort;
i i i )  the lack of vocational guidance for increasingly large groups of  
persons transferred without adequate preparation to other duties  
within the enterprise;
iv) a  general and urgent need for vocational training which, if not  
satisfied, would expose a  num ber of workers to strong competition  
from younger, better qualified workers or specialists from outside;
v) the use, albeit to a  limited degree, of forms of re-organisation  
of working time likely to contribute to the stabilisation of employ­
m ent .
Lastly, outside the context of the enterprise, attention has been drawn  
to the fact that employment problems in the sector are extending to  
the regions, their development being handicapped by the cumulative  
effect of job losses, the monoindustrial nature of the economy, the  
crisis in the coal industry and the level of unemployment which is  
often one of the highest in the Community.

VI/18
d _ )  It w _ i  l_ l_  be the task of a ll_  those concerned, the national and regional  
authorities, the two sides of industry and the Com m unity to decide  
what the future developments should be.
The Comm ission for its part w ill request that Com m unity financial  
participation be maintained at a  high level for at least three m ore  
years in the form of réadaptation aid for E C S C  workers, the amounts  
granted to the various types of aid being adjusted according to require­
ments. It w ill also propose that the Council extend the 1983-86 social  
volet up to the end of 1987. A s  the num ber of beneficiaries w ill be  
approximately the sam e as in itia lly  provided for, the total am ount  
of the cost to the Com m unity of following up the Commission proposal ,  
i.e . 330 million EC U , should be maintained (1).
■'ey. The whole problem of occupational qualifications should be examined  
in greater depth by a ll the parties concerned; the Commission should  
call o n  the appropriate bodies, such as the Joint Committee for the  
Harmonization of Working Conditions in the Iron and Steel Industry,  
to study the problem and formulate suggestions for future action in  
the light of the possibilities offered by Article 56 (2) (b) of the  
E C S C  Treaty.
f) The problem of the re-integration outside the industry of workers,  
to which the solution m ust be based primarily on economic recovery  
in the regions, w ill require a  continuous effort by the Com m unity and  
in particular by its financial instruments, which should be aimed m ore  
directly at investments resulting in the immediate creation of jobs.
In order to fa c ilita te  the re-integration of these persons in a  satis­
factory manner, the Commission considers that special attention should  
be given to vocational training initiatives set up by firms which reduce  
their staff.
1) See Doc. SEC(83) 127 final of 31.1.1983.

VI/ 19
It w i L J .  also be necessary to ensure that the Com m unity assistance granted  
in this context is able in future to cover periods of training longer  
than 12 months.
A s  regards the creation of compensatory jobs in the E C S C  regions, the  
Commission w ill continue its efforts as regards the financing of re­
conversion, efforts which it has intensified in recent years. It should  
be noted in this context that the Commission intends to present proposals  
in 1985 aimed at extending and especially improving the coordination  
of Com m unity activities in order to provide the best possible support  
for the various diversification program m es implemented in the catchment  
areas of the iron and steel industry.

CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EUROPEAN'"C qJiMUNITY STEEL INDUSTRY BETWEEN 1973 AND 1984· .  TABLE A
(not including Greece)
(including trainees) '  - end of period -
(x 1000>
31 December ■  
f ig u r eTOTAL EC  
(w ith o u t  
G reece)GERMAN
FEDERAL
REPUBLICFRANCE·*
ITALYNETHER­
LANDS.BELGIUMLUXEM­
BOURG1
UNITED
KINGDOMIRELAND DENMARK
YEAR 1973 7 7 8 ,3 2 2 8 ,4 1 5 1 ,7 8 9 ,7 2 3 ,3 6 2 ,4 2 3 ,2 1 9 6 ,2 . (0 ,7 ) (2 ,7 )
1974 7 9 5 ,7 2 3 2 ,0 1 5 7 ,8 9 5 ,7 25,1 6 3 ,7 2 3 ,5 1 9 4 ,4 0 ,8 2 ,7 '
1977 7 1 9 ,7 20 9,5 1 4 3 ,0 9 6 ,6 2 3 ,3 4 9 ,7 1 7 ,4 1 7 7 ,0 0 ,7 2 ,5
1978 6 8 5 ,5 2 0 2 ,8 1 3 1 ,6 9 5 ,6 2 1 ,3 4 8 ,5 1 6 ,8 1 6 5 ,4 0 ,8 2 ,7
1979 6 7 0 ,2 2 0 4 ,8 1 2 0 ,6 9 8 ,7 2 0 ,9 4 8 ,7 1 6 ,4 1 5 6 ,6 0 ,7 2 ,8
1980 5 9 8 ,0 1 9 7 ,4 1 0 4 ,9 9 9 ,6 2 1 ,0 4 5 ,2 1 4 ,9 112,1 0 ,7 2 ,2
1981 5 4 8 ,6 1 8 6 ,7 9 7 ,3 9 5 ,7 2 0 ,9 44 ,1 1 3 ,4 8 8 ,2 0 ,6 1 ,7
1982 i 5 1 3 ,6 1 7 5 ,9 9 5 ,2 9 1 ,5 2 0 ,2 4 1 ,7 1 2 ,4 7 4 ,5 0 ,6 1 ,6
1983 4 7 9 ,2 1 6 3 ,7 9 0 ,7 87 ,1 1 9 ,2 3 9 ,6 1 2 ,9 6 3 ,7 0 ,7 1 ,6
1984 4 4 5 ,9 152,5 85,1 7 5 ,6 1 8 ,7 3 7 ,2 1 2 ,7 6 1 ,9 0 ,7 1 ,5
19 73 /1 9 7 4  ' + 1 7 ,4 + 3 ,6 + 6 ,1 + 6 ,0 + 1 ,8 + 1 ,3 + 0 ,3 -  1 ,8 + 0 ,1 -
19 74 -197 7 CAveragfe -  2 5 ,3 -  7 ,5 -  4 ,9 + 0 ,3 -  0 ,6 -  4 ,7 -  2 ,0 -  5 ,8 - " 0 ,1
VARIATION:1979-1980 -  7 2 ,2 -  7 ,4 - 1 5 ,7 + 0 ,9 + 0 ,1 " 3 ,5 -  1 ,5 -4 4 ,5 - -  0 ,6
1 9 79 -198 4' 1980-1981 -  4 9 ,4 - 1 0 ,7 -  7 ,6 -  3 ,9 -  0 ,1 -  1,1 -  1 ,5 - 2 3 ,9 -  0,1 -  0 ,5
1981-1982 -  3 5 ,0 - 1 0 ,8 “ 2/1 -  4 ,2 -  0 ,7 -  2 ,4 -  1 ,0 - 1 3 ,7--  0 ,1
Cÿëar~5ÿ y e a r)1982-1983 -  3 4 ,4 - 1 2 ,2 -  4 ,5 -  4 ,3 -  1 ,0 -  2,1 - 0 , 5 - 1 0 ,8 0 ,1
1983-1984 -  3 3 ,5 - 1 1 ,2 -  5 ,6 -1 1 ,5 -  0 ,5 -  2 ,4 -  0 ,2 -  1 ,8 - -  0 ,1
SITUATION COMPARED WITH 1974 AND 1980 (NUMBERS)
1 9 74 -198 0 ! -1 9 7 ,7 - 3 4 .6 - 5 2 ,9 + 3 ,9 -  4,1 - 1 8 ,5 -  8 ,6 - 8 2 ,3 -  0 ,1 -  0 ,5
19 74 -198 4 -3 4 9 ,8 - 7 9 ,5 - 7 2 ,7 -2 0 ,1 -  6 ,4 - 2 6 ,5 - 1 0 ,8 -1 3 2 ,5 -  .0,1 -  1 ,2
1 9 80 -198 4 j -1 5 2 ,1 - 4 4 ,9 - 1 9 ,8 - 2 4 ,0 -  2 /3 -  8 ,0 -  2 ,2 -  5 0 ,2 -  0 ,7
| SITUATION COMPARED WITH 1974 AND 1980 (PERCENTAGES)
19 74 -198 0 ; -  2 4 ,8 - 1 4 ,9 - 3 3 ,5 + 4 ,1 - 1 6 ,3 - 2 9 ,0 - 3 6 ,6 -  4 2 ,3 -  1 2 ,5 -1 8 ,5
19 74 -198 4 , -  4 4 ,0 - 3 4 ,3 -4 6 ,1 - 2 1 ,0 - 2 5 ,5 - 4 1 ,6 - 4 6 ,0 -  6 8 ,2 -  1 2 ,5 -4 4 ,5
1980-1984
iI-  2 5 ,4 - 2 2 ,7 - 1 8 ,9 -2 4 ,1
-9-- 1 1 ,0 - 1 7 ,7 - 1 4 ,8 -  4 4 ,8 0 - 3 1 ,8

1  CHANGES IN. EMPLOYMENT LEVELS TABLE-BI  -------------- ■
;  
IN  COMPARISON WITH ECSC CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ■  ,, _  . .1  U n it : M it lio n  tonnes
' ƒ '  CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION
jo b  lossesOutput in  m illio n s o f tonnes VARIATIONS
1974/
19741980 
= 1001980/1984  
1980 = 1001974/1984  
1974 = IOC1974
(1)1980 1984 %
Q1974/1980  
1974 = 1001980/1984  
1980 = 1001974/1984  
1974 ? 100
F ed era l R epublic o f Germany -  U . 9 -  2 2 .7 -  3 4 .3
5 3 .2 4 3 .8 3 9 .4%
Q-  1 7 .7
-  9 .4-  1 0 .0  
-  4 .4-  2 5 .9
-  1 3 .8
France -  3 3 .5
Ì-  1 8 .9 -  46.1
2 7 .0 2 3 .2 1 9 .0%
Q-  14.1
-  3 .8-  18.1  
-  4 .2-  2 9 .6
-  8 .0
I t a l y +4.1 -  24.1 -  2 1 .0
2 3 .8 2 6 .5 2 4 .0%
Q+ 1 1 .3  
+ 2 .7-  9 .4
-  2 .5+ 1 .0 ,  
+ 0 .2
N e th e rlan d s -  16 .3 -  1 1 .0 -  25 .5
5 .9 5 .3 5 .8%
Q-  1 0 .2  
-  0 .6+ 9 .4  
+ 0 .5-  1 .7
-  0 .1
/
Belgium -  2 ^ .0
_____ I_____-  
1 7 .7 -  4 1 .6
1 6 .2 1 2 .3 1 1 .3%
Q-  24.1
-  3 .9-  8 .1  
-  1 .0-  3 0 .2
-  4 .9
Luxembourg. -  36 .6I-  1 4 .8 -  4 6 .0
6 .5 4 .6 4 .0%
Q-  2 9 .2 '
-  1 .9-  1 3 .0
-  0 .6-  3 8 .5
-  2 .5
U n ite d  Kingdom -  4έ .3 -  4 4 .8 !  -  6 8 .2
2 2 .4 1 1 .3 1 5 .2%
Q-  4 9 .6
-  11.1+ 3 4 .5  
+ 3 .9-  32.1.
-  7 .2
Ir e la n d -  12 .5 0 -  12 .5
0 .1 0 .2%
Q -  0.1 + 0 .2+ 5 0 .0  
+ 0.1
Denmark -  18 .5 -  3 1 .8 -  4 4 .5
0 .5 0 .7 0 .5%
Q+ 4 0 .0  
+ 0 .2-  2 8 .6  
-  0 .20
0
TOTAL FOR EUROPEAN COMMUNITY  
(9  c o u n trie s )-  2 4 .8  
(6  y e a rs )-  2 5 .4  
(4  y e a rs )-  4 4 .0  
(1 0  y e a râ 1 5 5 .6 1 2 7 .7 1 1 9 .4%
QC6~y^Zr?)  
-  2 7 .9(4  ye’V r l )  
-  8 .3( ffrfåa ?s 
-  3 6 .2

Crude s te e l production * ‘ 1 .0 0 0  t  
Total end of_ y?a_r
,, . , o f  which:' manual workei'SW orkforce 'e m p lo ye es_
1 a p p re n tic e ’s
T o ta l: annual averag e  
"o urs w orked: t o t a l w o rk fo rc e  (2 )
Hours worked per annum ana p er w orker  
P ro d u c tio n  tim e per t . .  crude s te e l (3 )  
W orking hours lo s t (1 ) , ,
T o ta l personnel E n tra n ts  o f employees  
- . fe a v e rs  f rom em ployers
(1 ) D iffe re n c e
. .To taj^
1) D ism is sa ls and redundancies ( 1 ) '  
o f which manual w orkers (1 )
2) Reti rcnients (1) .  
3X_hjpluntar.y_-resignations (1)
Total 1) +  2) + 3)
Crude s t e e l pro du ctio n  * ‘ 1 000 t  
T otal end _of y e a r
,, , ,  o f V ln c h : manual w orkersW orkfo rce ,. . .  em ployees
" a p p re n tic e s  
T o ta l: annOal averag e  
lio u rs w orked: t o t a l  w o rk fo rc e  (2 )
Hours w orked per annum ana p e r w orker  
P ro d u c tio n  tim e per t . .  crud e s t e e l (3 )  
W orking hou rs lo s t (1 )
T o ta l p e rs o n n e l E n tra n ts  o f em ployees  
~  . Leavers from  em ployers
( 1 )  D iffe re n c e
..T o ta l '
1) D is m is s a ls  and redu n dancies ( 1 ) ·  ;*  
o f w hich manual w orkers ( 1 ) .
2 ) R e ti reilfents C1) .  _
Wnhjntarv rr»«-·?i n o «  ( 1)TRENDS"IN C R U D E  STEEL PR O D UC TIO N  A N D  W O R K F O R C E S
IN (HE cc:: diry COUNiiUES (YìAR 197/.)
,:.'CE '1 TAL1 a| ; ^ J R-  0EI.GIOUEI ) .  R.
’T O »
.58 232  
232 037  
173.020  
39 013  
8  9 3 327 020  
157 833  
110 390  
' 37 139  
' 20323 793  
95 656  
'  /8  l5 2  
17 333  
615 S30  
25.10016 225  
63 700  
53 563  
10 136I.UXI
SOi.'RG973),V | U R I IE
K I N G D O M
2 2  3 7 ?  
193 y  ,7 
135 717
52. 537  
6 033I REI. AND
1 1 0
800DENARKr E C S C  
9
/
I  bTr.
DEUISCH- J_LAND_
33.83
8 
197.306  
133 176  
33 333  
9 796  
200 955  
303.057  
1 513  
6.93  
228 
23.098  
31 505  
-  7 307
3.123  
3.975  
4 697
7 056‘year  1980
TRANCE
23.172  
100 930  
65 729  
39 107  
103 
113 633  
188 379  
1  658  
8 13  
108 
11 359  
27 172  
15 713
1  031  
807 
5 972
1 571-ITALIA
26.501
99 528  
79 373'  
20:113
32
100 583  
163 157
1  632  
6.19  
208
7 306
8 167  
-  861
273
22
1-131 .
3 995NEDER­
LAND
5 272  
21 617
21 039  
2  367
1  532  
6 16
2 S77  
2 759  
+ 118
|^310
611
1  3 7 ?8CLGI0UE
12 2 1
35 220
36 887  
8 202
131
37 351  
75 501  
'  1  593
6 13  
297'
3 968
7 S97  
-  3 729
588 
563 
2 030
76 VLUXEK-
B0URG
3 619  
13 903  
11 202 
3 315  
287 
16 031  
27 387  
1  708  
5.93
1  670  
3 113  
- 1.333
35
35
669UNITED
KINGDOM
11 278  
112 120 
73 511  
2  770  
3.839  
1 :53 359
7 563  
51 830  
33 276
39.577
30.662
3-277
i <IRELAND
2 
700 
300 
100 
200 
700
238
216535 
2 T O OT A T *
155.537
795.-676C 1 · .
HELLAS
DENKAR I :
734 
2 181
1 639  
507
35
2 396
1 1
282
863
581
212
203
63F.CSC  
9HELLAS
127 737  
598 036  
C313 917)  
(137 638)  
C  15 333)  
636.168
1.583  
P ) C bi
59 223)  
(133 117)  
(-73 893)
36 397  
36.715*  
( 18 351)ECSC.-  •  1 0
870ECSC  
1 U
128 607

Crude s t e e l p ro d u c tio n  < 1  000 t
■  T o ta l end of y e a r
. , o f w hich: manual w orkersW orkfo rce ,'-· em ployees
app'ront ic e s
T o ta l: annual averaije
Hours w orked: t o t a l w o rkfo rce 12)
Hours Harked  p e r snnum  ano p e r w orker
fro d 'ic t ion tim e per t .  crude  s te e l (3 )
'..'orking hou rs lo s t (1 ) , ,
T o ta l p e rs o n n e l e n tra n ts  o f employees
Leavers “from em ployers
(1 ) D iffe re n c e
T o ta l * ’ ■
1) D is m is s a ls  and rcdundanc i es (1)' 
o f w hich manual ’ workers C l)
2) Set i rcn'tonl s Cl)
3 ) JV n lu n lo r.y re s io n a t ions ( 1 )  _  '
T o ta l 1) + 2 ) V  3) ........ ‘
Cr
ude s t e e l p ro d u c tio n  * ’ 1 .0 0 0  t  
T o ta l end o f y e a r
. ,  o f’ w hich: manual w orkers
Work[ ° ; ce employees
a p p re n tic e s  
T o ta l' annual a v e ra g e  
Hours w orked: t o t a l w o rkfo rce <2)
Hours worked p er annum ana p er w orker  
P ro d u c tio n  tim e  per t .  crude s t e e l (3 )  
W orking hours lo s t (1 )
T o ta l p e rs o n n e l E n tra n ts  o f em ployees  
. Leavers from  em ployers
( 1 )  D iffe re n c e
. T o ta l
1 ) D is m is s a ls  and redundancies (1)’ 
o f w hich manual w orkers C l)
2 ) R e tire m e n ts  (1 )
3 )  .lV p lu n tar.y .ré s ig n â tions (1 )
T « - .» - .!  1Y  i i~” 7 1TR E N D S  IN C R U D E  STEEL PRO D UC TIO N  A N D  U O R /C F O R C E S  IN  
TH E C O M M U N ITY  CO U NTRIES C Y E A R  1981)m  u „  c 2
I 8 . R .~CSA/VCE It a liaWCDCR-
l./.NDOLEG'COEluxe /·;
tOWGONI 1  CD
<  LV fj D O MIRELAND 0 II it .'inn 1 €CSC·
*9HELLAS-ECSC
10
41.610 21.245 24.778 5.472' 12.733 3.750 15.321 33 612 125.144 909 126.053
136.485 97..'05 95.651 20.911 44.106 13.419 78.847 700 1.743 5/8.767
135.051 59.937 76.052 - . 35.856 9.707 57.949 578 1.313 C376.553) _ _  ^ _ _
41.397 37.704 19. « 2 . . 3.023 3.331 76.807 100 393 Cl 37.372) .. ..
9.727 VA <7 227 731 3.491 72 32 C  13.93.1)1
192.079 10). 7:0 38.22 5 20.972 44.735 18.913 98.C'0 770 1.941 57/8.833
235.792 167.194 153.0/9 32.472 69.753 74.039 1777.2-44 ..
1./..'; 8 1 .6 '3 ,1.557 1.552 1.5'8 1.778 1.7/8 1.589 I C 'a ) C b)
6.37 7.87 6.13 5.93 5.64 6.24 10.96 ..
397 7:0 500 103 75Ô 770 406 0 5 2.176 1 .. · ..
19.205 8.124 5.755 1.536 3.4 ‘ 78 1.196 8.314 . _ 154 C  47.772)
79.976 15.7:3 9.772 1.671 4.550 7.681 32.168 592 C  97.0.2) ..
- 10.721 -  7.654 - 3.377 - 135 - 1./12' - 1  .'85 - 73.844 ... -  4 :8 C49.246) -- --
3.9,34 439 476 i  ' 6 2/4 > 0 13.739 10 353 19.591
3.647 339 441 i -359 35 10.247 11 275 15.354* ....
•5.370 4.0?4 2.524 47-9. 1.154 ’ 605 9.037 . _ 40 23.181)....
5.835 1.156 4.147 576 452 315 1.773 128 14.372)
15.109 5.619 7.147 1.751 1.9. 0  ) -713] 24.549 ____ CIO) ___52.1_’ .
57.J44). — - - - - -..
. / Y E A R  1982' /
I I3.R.·................ - ------------
l.
'CDCR-13E I.C T CUELUXf.ii - U .V J 7ED.... —.. ..
iEUISCH-  
. LANDTRANCE ITALIAL AND I-O '.JIG K  l N O  DOili RE I. A N
j '35.£20 13.403 24.D O ? * '4* 354 ’ ” 9-592 "”3.5'i6 13.740.. - - - - -
j 175.946 95.7,;0 91.495 70.153 41.659 12.425 74.475 618
1  126.571 87.453 73.434 .. . 33.652 S.9I2 '8.736 454
i  39.764 37.641 18.042 . . 7.7% 3.231 23.253 148
!  9.811 . 61 .. 19_ _ 211 .7,52 2./86 16
!  181.251 96.754 93.235 20.480 43.104 13.356 81.893 650
' 259.135 154.939 148.922 29.501 62.294 22.997 142.150 . .
!  1.430 1.602 1.586 1.440 1.445 1.721 1.736
1  7.22 8.42 6.20 6.78 6.23 6.55 10.34
j  1.377 173 785 219 405 ' 430 249 7
17.074 8.501 5.177 699 2.052 2.627 5.144 2
27.813 10.450 9.333 1.452 4.508 3.621 18.916 81
- 10.739i-  1.949 -  4.156 -  753 -  2.446 -  994 -13.772 -  79
j
;  2.479 205 197 J  229 240 20 7.816 1
:  2.193 144 182 1 - 223 19 5.926 4
6.721 2.689- . 1.401 479 1.869 1.150 5.166-fr 7
3.033 1.038 3:256 331 295 312 1.133 .• -A
!?:?73 ? Q?2l o c 6 2 7 05 1 in? 14 115•-f*diii.t.ak^ E C S C_?_
11
0.509 760
7.629
1.199
392
38
1.701
1.545
1 4 
’ 155  
269 
-  114
28
23
51
74i* r z513. 705  
C  350.256)  
C130.267)  
( 12.924)  
533.094  
C819.9S8)  
(a) C°)
3.659*  
41.441  
76.443  
-  35.002
11.215
8.714*
:19.533HELLAS
933ECSC. ._] 0 _  ,
111.442

^  Crude s te e l product ion *."1 DOG t
ij Total end of y?or
, of which: .V:C.iual w orkers|. ..or.·;.  o rceI  ·' , - ,  employeesI  CD . ,ap pre ntices
I Col.!I : .:i;riu.'il nv.:·r.’ ..j3
t  '.ours work·:·/: to t.il w orkforce 12) _ — i -
j_ dp urs work ::,j por a'.ini.eii r.no pe r c orkc-r  · ,
j P ro d u c tio n  t i.i.c per. t. crude s to o l (3) .
I  '.'orking ho urs lo s t (1)
| rcrlo.l porscoifiol E ntrants of employees i 
j . Leavers ~fro:.i em ployers j
| (1) Oi ffa once i
I  ·  · . ·  Jo«··l ' ' ;
j i)  Q  I ·■ m is s .;l s and redun.’onc ies (1 )·
I  o f •..•hi eh manual workers (1)
!  2) it:?  I i rci.i.aii s (1) . . ·
3) ,..'?·' lu r 11  c > r.y re s ig n a tio n s  (1) i
. ,  T o tu l 1) i 2 ) Y '3 )  '·' ............. ............... '■ ' j
7o
 r k f o r c e 
(1).Crude s te e l"  prcrtiuct ion *" 1 .0 0 0  t
T o ta l end o f year  
o f wh,ich: nionual w orkers  
employees  
app’re n t ices  
!  T o ta l: annual average
Hours w orked: t o t a l w orkfo rce (2 )
Hours w orked p er annum ano p er u o rk e r  
P ro d u c tio n  tim e  per t .  crude s te e l ( 3 )  
W orking hours lo s t (1 )
T o ta l p e rs o n n e l E n tra n ts  o f em ployees  
Leavers from e.r.ploycrs  
( 1 )  D iffe re n c e
1) Q is m is s a ls  and redundancies ( 1 ) ’ “  
o f w hich manual w orkers (1 )
2 ) R e tire m e n ts  (1 ) _  ____
3 J
.^ V o lu n ta ry  -rc s io n a tio n s  C1)
T rU  r *  I  1T-+ +  >v-"r' ~TR E N D S  IN C R U D E  STEEL PRO D UC TIO N  A N D  W O R K F O R C E .  
TH E  CCw-lAUTY COLNiRIES (YEAR 1983TA B LE C3
B.R.
D E jj; ;h
35.729  
163.?/,8  
116.3'·/)  
3?. 658  
9.750  
1 6 3 .8 5 1  
V39.835  
1.320  
6.?1 
1.355  
12.932  
25.1/0  
- 12.228
2.029  
1.734  
. 8.923  
1.781  
12.733
B.R. 
DF.IJ1SCH-  
... LAND....  
39.331
152.5  
107.0
35.5
10.0
156.5  
:235.883
1.393
5.93
2 2 1
932
820TRANCE I TALI ANEDER­
LAND3ELGI0UELUXCM
bousgUNI TED  
KINGDOMIRELAND DENMARK E C S C 
9 ·HELLAS
17.532 21.811 3.333 10.153 3.293 13.980 131 393 108.668 873
'70.713 87.050 19.210 39.569 12.933 63.694 659 1.632 379.220
53.335 69.336 _ 31.971 9.393 32.019 399 1.221 (323.133) „  _
37.3-36 17.700 ' 7.381 3.233 19.938 137 531 (123.833)
33 3 . _ 217 258 1.737 13 —  30 ( 12.052)
92.7.06 631.256 19.678 30.397 12.370 67.303 630 1.517 393.703
133.059 123.830 29.627 61.377 20.673 119.709 . . 2.708
1.535 1.327 1.506 1.522 1.658 1.779 1.785 1.513 -0 .) (b)
8.13 "5.91 6.61 6.05 6.28 7.99 5.39 6.86 . „
263 1.811 109 303 "  333 85 0 0 3.362
8.6.36 5.621 537 1.795 3.025 5.132 66 355 53.259
13.367 10.066 1.355 3.835 2.516 15.923 15 337 72.733
-  3.701 -  3.335 -  203 -  2.053) * 50? - 10.731 t- 51 13 - 33.375
138 283 100 919 37 6.336 1 239 10.6Q7
103 268 765 50 3.733 1 223 7.873*
2.793 1.963 651 1.057 1.075 3.795 2 8 20.279
3 77 3.530 225 223 332 717 7 69 7.771 . „
__3.318 5.7
78 976 2.209 1.338 . IJ -35? ..... 10 _326__ _38.65.7_J
•Y E A R  .  1983/ /
TRANCE lt a l iaNEDER­
LANDBELGIQUEL  UXVA-  
B0URGUNI7CD  
KINGDOMIR a. AND DENMARK E C S C
9HELLAS
19.031 23:035 5.732 11.307 3.983 15.335 167 539 119.305 •  (392)
85.1 75.6 18.7 37.2 12.7 61.9 0.7 1.5 335.9 3.2
38.5 59.9 . _ 29.9 9.3
36.5 15.7 7.3 3.0
0.1 - -  - - 0.3
87.1 81.7 18.7 38.7 12.7 62.3 0.7 1.6 360.0 3.2
133.855 128.353 30.038 60.382 16.373 111.517 _ . 2.816....
1.537 1.572 1.607 1.563 1.297 1.790 1.760 _ .
7.03 5.35 5.23 5.35 3.13 7.32. „ 5.13
25 1.286 3 153 . 1.33 0 1 1.836
260 353 685 993 13 1.687 32 69 5.036•
199 301
»"836 13 1.325 32 68 3.604*E C S C 
__1 0_ _
109.53
2
E C S C ·
_ 1 Q _ 
('120.298)
3.501
363.2
-.1)
2)

Explanatory notes for C  Tables
* Production expressed in ingots produced, after deduction of continuous
casting
(1) Unit: 1  worker
(2) " :  1  000 hours
(3) " :  hours and hundredths
(4) " :  1  000 hours - monthly average
(a) Com m unity total not including United Kingdom, Ireland, Denm ark and Greece.
(b) The arithmetical m ean  for the Com m unity not including the United Kingdom,  
Ireland, Denm ark and Greece is 1  608 hours/year
(c) Com m unity total not including Ireland, D enm ark and Greece
(d) The arithmetical m ean  for the Com m unity not including Ireland, Denm ark  
and Greece is 1  603 hours/year in 1981 and 1  566 hours/year in 1982
(e) Com m unity total not including Ireland and Greece
(f) The arithmetical m ean  for the Com m unity not including Ireland and Greece  
is 1  580 hours/year.

!  · ^
C H A N S E S  W O R K FO R C E  IN  ECSC IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY . TABLE D1
B Y  REGIO N ' '' |
U n it : 1  OO O ■ .  w o rk e rs '- i
II
R E G I O N S  jj
IIIIIIII1974 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 DEVELOPM ENT i
.L
Numbers ^erc entage
»n
!!! 74-84 80-84 74~i84
I80-84
îiII
Bremen, B e r l in ,  (  J |..B U N  [ E  S  R  E P U B L I  K  D E  U T S C  H  L / N DI
S c h le s w ig -H o ls te in , N ied ersach sen, Hamburgjj
' n32.2 28.0 27.6 26.3 24.8 22.3 -  9.9 -  5.7 -  30 .7' -  20.4
II
D u s s e ld o rf n 82.6 71 .b 68.0 65.4 60.3 55.4 -27.2 -15.6 -  32j.9 -  22.0
Köln ü 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 -  1.2 -  0.4 -  37^.5 -  16.7
A rn s b e rg , M ü n ster, Detmold || 66.6 58.2 51.7 47.9 44.5 42.4 -24.2 -15.8 -  3^.3 -  27.1
Hessen, R h e in la n d , P fa lz  !j 7.6 7.3 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.8 -  0.8 -  0.5 -  10.5 -  6.8
B aden-W ürttem berg, Bayern S 8.0 6.9 7.0 . .6.4 6.1 5.9 -  ‘2.1 -  1 -  26.3 -  14.5
S a a rla n d  n
II31.8 23.6 23.0 20.4 18.8 17.7 -14.1 -  5.9 -  44.3 -  25.0
T o ta l ii
II232.0 197.4 186.7 175.9 163.7 152.5 -79.5 -44.9 -  34.3 -  22.7
IIH•  —9 , -----= s  - - .  ---- .1 1RRi
F R A N C  E. i
H
I l e  de F ran ce , P ic a rd ie  S 4.6 4.5 4 .4 4.3 4.3 4.2 . -  0.4 -  0.3 -  8.7 -  6.7
Champagne, Ardennes U 3.3 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.8 -  2.5 -  1 .0 -75.8 -5 5 .6
N o rm andie, B re ta g n e , Pays de la  L o ire  n7.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 5 .5 5 .2 -  2.3 -  1 .2 -30.7 -1 8 .8
B ourgogne, Franche-Com té jj 7.2 6.3 5.8 5 .3 5.2 5.1 -  2 .1 -  1.2 -2 9 .2 -1 9 .0
Nord -  P a s -d e -C a la is  S36.3 24.0 22.3 21.6 21.1 20.2 -16.1 -  3 .8 - 4 4 .4 . -1 5 .8
L o r ra in e  -  A lsace S 7 7 .6 43.6 40.7 39.1 36.5 33.3 -4 4 .3 -  10.3 -57.1 -2 3 .6
A q u ita in e  -  Languedoc, M id i-P y ré n é e s  8 2.1 1 .9 :  1 JB 2 .5 2.2 2.1 0 + 0 .2 0 +10.5
R h ô n e -A lp e s , Auvergne, P ro ven ce-C ôte d'Azum
R19.2 16.4 15.4 14.8 14.5 14.2 -  5 .0 -  2 .2 -2 6 .0 -1 3 .4
R
T o ta l * rH157.8 104.9 9 7 .3 . 95.2 9 0.7 85.1 -72.7 - 1 9 .8 -4 6 .1 - 1 8 . 9
"" ........... H
H
R
R
___ _ R.

CHANGES IN  WORKFORCE IN  ECSC IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY  
BY REGIONTABLE . D2
U n it : 1  OOP w orkers
REGIONSMHH1974 .1980 1981 1982 1983 1984DEVELOPMENT ;
IIUNumbers -  P ercentage
nn 7 4 -8 4 8 0 -8 4 7 4 -8 4 80-84
u«n R O Y , ,  U M E - U N I
S c o tla n dItMn 1 6 .4 1 0 .4 9 .0 7 .4 6 .0 5 .9 -  1 0 .5 -  4 .5 -  6 4 .0 -  4 3 .3
WalesIIn 6 6 .9 3 2 .4 2 5 .6 2 3 .0 2 1 .2 21.1 -  4 5 .8 - 1 1 .3 -  6 8 .5  , -  3 4 .9
N o rth e rnna 34 .1 2 0 .8 17 .2 1 2 .3 9 .5 9 .3 -  2 4 .8 - 1 1 .5 -  7 2 .8  i -  5 5 .3
N o rth -W estun 3 .3 * 1 .5 1 .6 1 .4 0 .9 0 .9 -  2 .4 -  0 .6 -  7 2 .8 -  4 0 .0
Y o rk s h ire  and HumbersideIIIt 5 2 .4 4 0 .8 3 0 .3 2 5 .9 2 2 .9 2 1 .9 -  3 0 .5 - 1 8 .9 -  5 8 .2 -  4 6 .3
O ther EnglandIIII 2 1 .2 6 .2 4 .5 4 .5 3 .2 2 .8 -  1 8 .4 -  3 .4 -  8 6 .8 -  5 4 .8
T o ta l
( 1 ) . '  P a r t ia l es tim ate s;.' f o r  ^  1974, L1 9 4 .3  
0 e t 198112.1
.8 8 .2 7 4 .5 6 3 .7 6 1 .9 -1 3 2 .4 - 5 0 .2 -  68.1 -  4 4 .8
an I  ' AL I  A
L ig u r ia , P iem onte, V a lle  d 'A o s tannIt 3 0 .3 2 8 .2 2 6 .7 2 1 .2 2 2 .7 1 8 .7 -  1 1 .6 -  9 .5 -  3 8 .3 « -  3 3 .7
Lom bardiaItII 1 9 .7 1 8 .6 1 7 .4 1 8 .3 1 6 .2 1 3 .3 -  6 .4 -  5 .3 "  3 2 .5  . -  2 8 .5
E m ilia  Romagna, F r i u l i ,  V en ezia G iu lia ,«  
T r e n tin o , A lto  A d ig e, Veneto £ 
A b ru z z i, L a z io , M arche, M o lis e , £ 
T oscana, Umbria £ 
B a s ilic a , Campania, C a la b r ia , P u g lia , £  
S ardeg na, S i c i l i a  £7 .3
8 .6
2 9 .87 .0
1 5 .0
3 0 .77 .2
1 4 .4
3 0 .07 .2
1 5 .0
2 9 .8_ 6 .9  
1 4 .3  
2 6 .96 .4
1 3 .0
2 4 .2-  0 .9  
+ 4 .4
-  5 .6-  0 .6  
-  2 .0  
-  6 .5-  1 2 .3
+ 5 1 .2  !
-  1 8 .8-  8 .6
-  1 3 .3
-  2 1 .2
T o ta l" B■n 9 5 .7 9 9 .5 9 5 .7 9 1 .5 8 7 .0 7 5 .6 -  2 0 .1 -  2 3 .9 -  2 1 .0 -  2 4 .0
unn B I LG  I  Q U E
H a in a u t-C e n tre , B o rin a g e ,Hainaut-Charleroin1 1uIt2 9 .0 1 7 .7 17.1 1 5 .9 1 4 .6 (1 3 .4 ) ( -  1 5 .6 ) ( -  4 .3 ) ( -  5 3 .8 ) ( -  2 4 .3 )
Liège . .IIHH 2 2 .0 1 6 .0 15.5· 1 4 .5 1 3 .7 1 2 .7 -  9 .3 -  3 .3 -  42.3 -  20.6
BrabantnM 5 .5 A .3 4 .2 4 .1 4 .0 ( 3 .8 ) ( -  1 .7 ) ( -  0 .5 ) ( -  3 0 .9 ) ( -  11.6)
F lan d re, Anvers, Limbotirg..· -Ha 7 .2 7 .2 7 .3 7 .2 7 .3 7 .3 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 1 .4  |+ 1 .4
T o ta lBaM6 3 .7 4 5 .2 44.1 4 1 .7 3 9 .6 3 7 .2 -  26.5 -  8 .0 -  41.6 -  17.7
• -#~TT~ItNnI—
i

WORKFORCE IN ECSC IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY TABLE E
BREAKDOWN BY AGE .
U n it! : 1000
YEAR  
End o f.B.R.
D E U T S C H L A N DF R A N C E ITALIA N E D E R L A N D BELG IQ U E LU 'F T B O U R G ' UNITED  
K IN G D O MIRELAND D A N EA R K TO TA
9 C OL i  
UNTRIES
p e rio d
N X N 7 .N y.N XN XN X N X N XN X N X
T C)TAL WORKFORCE
(Employees and manual workers)*
1980 19 7.4 1 0 0 .0 1 0 4 .9 1 0 0 .c 99 .5 1 0 0 .0 21.1 1 0 0 ,0 4 5 .2 100-0 1 4 .9 1 0 0 ,0 - 112.1 1 0 0 ,0 0 .7 1 0 0 ,0 2 ,2 1 0 0 ,0 :  5 9 8 ,0 1 0 0 .0
1981 18 6.7 1 0 0 .0 9 7 .3 10 0-0 9 5 .7 10 0.0 2 0 ,9 1 0 0 ,0 44,1 10 0.0 1 3 .4 1 0 0 ,0 8 8 ,3 1 0 0 ,0 0 ,7 1 0 0 .0 1 ,7 10 0,0 i 5 4 8 ,8 10 0.0
1982 1 7 5 .9 1 0 0 .0 9 5 .2 1 0 0 .0 91 ,5 10 0.0 2 0 .2 1 0 0 ,0 4 1 ,7 100,0 1 2 ,4 1 0 0 .0 74 .5 1 0 0 ,0 0 ,6 1 0 0 ,0 1 ,6 1 0 0 .0 5 1 3 .6 1 0 0 ,0
1983 1 6 3 .7 1 0 0 .0 9 0 .7 1 0 0 .0 87.1 10 0.0 1 9 .2 1 0 0 ,0 3 9 ,6 100.0 1 2 .9 1 0 0 ,0  - 6 3 .7 1 0 0 .0 0 .7 1 0 0 ,0 1 ,6 10 0,0 47 9,2 10 0,0
1984 152.5 1 0 0 ,0 85 .1 100.0 7 5 .6 100,0 1 8 .7 10 0.0 3 7 .2 100.0 1 7 ,7 1 0 0 .0 6 1 ,9 ioo;,o 0 ,7 1 0 0 .0 1 ,5 100.0 4 4 5 ,9 10 0,0
AGED T9 AND'UN DER
1980.
1 8 .7i
1981 1 1 .6 6 .2 0 .7 0 .7 0 .5 0 .5 0 .7 3 ,5 0 .2 0 .5 0 ,4 2 .8 4 .6 5 ,2 - 2 .7 — 1 .2 3#4
1982 1 0 .9 6 .2 0 .7 0 ,7 0 .3 0 .3 0 ,6 2 ,9 0.1 0 ,3 0 .4 2 ,8 2 .9 3 ,9 0 .1 2 .3 2.1 1 6 .0 3,1
1983 9 .8 6 .0 0 .6 0 .6 0 .2 0 .2 0 ,3 1 .6 0 .2 0 .4 0 .3 2 .5 1 .9 2 ,9 - 1 .4 0 .1 3 .5 /1 3 .4 2 ,8 -
1984 9 -6 6 -3 0 ,3 0 .4 0 .2 0 .3 0 ,2 1,1 0.1 0 -3 0 .4 3 .1 (1 .8 ) (2 .5 ) - (1 .4 : ( 0 ,1 ) ( 3 .5 ) (1 2 ,7 ) ( 2 .8 )
AGED 20 TO 24!
19804 0 ,6i
1981 1 4 .6 7 .8 4 ,7 4 .8 4.4 4 .6 2 .2 1 0 .3 3,, 2 7 .3 0 .3 2 ,5 11.1 1 2 .6 - 6 ,6 0.1 5 .0'•"i i
1982 1 3 .9 7 .9 4 .9 5 .1 3 .9 I 4.2 1 .9 9 .6 2 ,8 6 .6 0 .3 2 .7 9 .2 1 2 .4 - 5 ,2 0 .1 4 .8 3 7 ,0 7 .2
1983 1 3 ,3 8 .1 4 .6 5.1 2 .9 3.3 1 .7 8 .9 2 .2 5 .5 0 .4 2 .8 7 .8 12.2 - 5 .8 0 .1 7 .7 3 3 .0 6 .9
1984 1 4 .2 9 .3 4 .0 4 ,7 2 ,4 3.2 1 .8 9 .6 1 ,8 4 .8 0 ,4 3 .2 (7 ,6 K 1 2 .2 ) - ( 5 .8 (0 .1 ) ( 7 .7 ) (3 2 .3 ) 7 .2
1980
1981\GED 25 TO 2 4·'
49,1 2 6 .3 4 5 .0 4 6 .3 4 3 ,3  i '4 5 .3 8 .2 3 9 ,3 1 8 ,2 4 1 .3 4 .6 34 .1 3 0 .2 3 4 .2 0 .3 3 5 .5 0 .7 4 2 .4 1 9 9 ,6 3 6 ,4
1982 4 5 .8 2 6 .0 4 3 ,7 4 5 .9 4 0 .7 44 .5 8 ,0 3 9 .4 1 7 ,6 42.1 4 .0 3 2 .4 2 6 .2 35 .2 0 .2 3 5 .8 0 .7 4 2 .2 1 8 6 .9
1983 4 3 .4 2 6 .5 4 1 .8 4 6 ,1 3 7 ,9 43,5 7 .7 3 9 ,8 1 6 .6 4 2 .0 4 -0 3 1 .4 2 3 .2 3 6 ,4 0 ,3 3 7 .2 0 ,7 4 0 .4 1 7 5 .6 3 6 .6
1984
•4 1 ,8 2 7 .4 4 0 .2 4 7 .2 3 5 .3 46.7 7 .6 4 0 .6 16.1 4 3 .3
*3 .8 2 9 .9 (2 2 .5 ) ( 3 6 .: ) 0 .3 ) (3 7 .2 (0 .7 : (4 0 .4 ) (1 6 8 ,3 )

WORKFORCE IN ECSC IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY  
BREAKDOWN BY AGE2.
U n it 1000
Year  
End o fB .R .
D E U T S C H L A N DFRANCE ITALIA NEDERLAND BELGIGUE
p e rio d
NX NX NX NX NX
:£AGED. 40 T .(
1980
1981 6 1 .4 3 2 .9 3 4 .3 3 5 .2 3 2 .2 3 3 .6 5 .2 2 4 .9 1 3 .6 3 0 .7
1982 5 8 .2 33.1 3 2 .7 3 4 .4 3 1 .9 3 4 .9 5.1 2 5 .5 1 2 .8 3 0 .7
1983 5 4 .8 3 3 .5 3 1 .5 3 4 .7 3 2 .0 3 6 .8 5.1 2 6 .7 1 2 .2 3 0 .8
1984 5 0 .0 3 2 .8 2 9 .8 3 5 .0 3 1 .Z 4 1 .9 5 .2 2 7 .8 1 1 .7 3 1 .5
AGED. 50 T <
1980
1981 3 1 .7 1 7 .0 9 .8 '1 0 .1 1 1 .6 12.1 2 .4 1 1 .3 7 .5 1 7 .0
1982 3 0 .6 1 7 .4 1 0 .5 1 1 .0 1 1 .4 (1 2 .4 ) 2 .3 (1 1 .4 ) 7 .1 17.1
1983 2 8 .2
2 6 .717:2
1 7 .51 0 .0
9 .01 1 .0
1 0 .61 1 .9
4 .61 3 .7
I  6.12 .3
2 .21 2 .0
1 1 .87 .1
6 .01 8 .0
16.1
AGED' 55 T
1980
1981 1 7 .0 9 .1 2 .7 2 .8 3 .6 3 .8 1 .8 8J7 1 .2 2 .7
1982 15.1 8 .6 2 .7 2 .8 3 .2 ( 3 .5 1 .9 (9 .2 ) 1.1 2 .7
1983
198413.1
9 .48 .0
6 .22.1
1 .72 .4
2 .02 .0
1 .32 .3
1 .71 .9
1 .510.1
8 .01.1
. 1 . 32 .7
3 .5
- AGED 60 T
1980
1981 1 .3 0 .7 0 .1 0 .1 0 .1 0 .1 0 .4 2 .0 0 .2 0 .5
1982 1 .4 0 .8 - 0 .1 0 .1 0 .2 0 .4 2 .0 0 .2 0 .5
1983
19841.1
0 .80 .7
0 .50 .1
0 .10_3
0 .1... 0 .2  
0 .10 .2
0 .10 .2
0 .20 .9
1.10 .2
0 .20 .6
0 .5
•LUXEMBOURG
4 .5
4 .4
4 .7
4 .7
2.8
2 .4
2 .5 2  6
0.8
0 .7
1.00.8
0.23 3 .9
35.1
3 6 .3
3 7 .0
20.6
1 9 .6
1 9 .3
20 .5
6.0
5 .5
7 .6 
6 .3
0.1
1 .9
0.1UNITED
KINGDOM
20.8
18 .5
1 6 .3
(1 5 .8 )
11.
10.
8 .7
8 .5 )
7 .6
6.0
4 .8
(4 .7 )
2.1 
1 .4 
1.0 (  1.0)1 3 .7
((13.2 3 .6  
2 4 .8
2 5 .6  
25.0.2 
0.2 
0.2 
5 ) (0 .2 )K 2 6
1 3 .3
1 3 .7
8.6
8.0
7 .5
(7 .6 :
2.4
1 .9
1.6
( 1 .7IRELAND
0.1
0.1
0.1
7X0.1)  (1226 .5
2 9 .0
2 6 .7
.7 )
1 0 .7
12 .4
1 2 .7  
7)
0.1
0.1(0.1)8.8
8 .5
8 .5 
(8 .5 )
9.2
6.8
7 .7
7 .7DANMARK
0.6
0.6
0 .7
0 .7 )
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1(3 5 .1 )
(3 8 .3 )
(4 1 .5 )
(4 1 .5 )
(2.6)
(2 .2 )
(2.8)
( 9 .0 )
7 .9
1.1
4 .6 
2 .4
2 .7TOTAL
9 COUNTRIES
17 2.8
164.4
157.5  
(1 4 9 .8 )
7 7 .7  
7 4 .6
7 0 .8  
( 5 9 /.7 )
3 5 .0  
3 0 .8
26.1  (20.8)
4 .3
3 .8
2.8
( 2 .4 )31 .5
3 2 .0
3 2 .9
(3 3 .6 )
14.1
1 4 .6
1 4 .8
(1 3 .4 )
6 .4
6.0
5 .4 
( 4 .7 )
0.8
0 .7
((? .'£ )

1 . TABLE.' FNUMBER OF MEN / HOURS REQUIRED  
PER TONNE OF'CRUDE STEEL PRODUCED
IN THE COMMUNITY COUNTRIES ·  ,/- PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES -  U n it : hours anc! hundredths
MEMBER COUNTRIES1974 1980 1974/80 1981 1980/81 1982 1981/82 1983 1982/83 1984 1983/84 1980/83 1980/84
TIME T IMEX
■ C H A N G E S '  
OVER  
6 .YEAR!TIMEX
fiOVEMEN TIM EX
PrbvEMEiN
»'T IM E .X
MOVEMENT TIMEX
'•IOVEME hl *  ,  &nnual
•ate .-of;  
nouem ept  
iv^rX
jVmual "  
rate Of 
m ovement  
over. '
B u n d e sre p u b lik Deutschland
France
I t a l i a
N e d e rla n d
/
B e lg iq u e  
Luxembourg  
U n ite d  Kingdom  
Ir e la n d  
Danmark. . . . .6 .9 4
8 .1 3  
6 .1 9  
6 .1 6
6 .1 3  
5 .9 36 .8 7
7 .8 7  
6 .1 8  
5 .9 3  
5 .6 4  
6 .3 4
10.96
I+ 1 .0  
+ 3 .3  
+ 0 .2  
+ 3 .9  
+ 8 .7  
-  6 .57 .2 2  
8 .4 2  
6 .2 0  
6 .7 8
6 .2 3  
6 .5 5
1 0 .3 4-  4 .8
-  6 .5
-  0 .3  
-1 2 .5
-  9 .5
-  3 .2  
+ 6 .06.7 1
8 .1 4
5.91
6.61
6 .0 5
6 .2 8
7 .9 9
5 .4 9+ 7 .6  
+ 3 .4  
+· 4 .9  
+ 2 .6  
+ 3 .0  
+ 4 .3  
+ 2 9 .45 .9 4
7 .0 3
5 .3 5  
5 .2 3
5 .3 5
4 .1 3  
7 .3 2
5 .1 3+ 1 3 .0  
+ 1 5 .8  
+ 1 0 .0  
+ 2 6 .4  
+ 13 .1  
+ 5 2 .1  
+ 9 .2
+ 7 .0i years*  
+ 1 .1 2
-  Ò.03  
+ 1.5 4
-  2 .3 2  
+ 0 .0 4
-  1 .9 0
GO4 years”  
+ 3 .9 5
+ 3 .6 9
+ 3 .7 1
+ 4 .1 8
+ 3 .4 7
+ 9 .4 6
+ 10.61
(3>
TOTAL W ithout U n ite d  Kingdom,  
COMMUNITY Ir e la n d , Denmark, Greece
TOTAL U ith o u t Ir e la n d , Denmark  
COMMUNITY Greece6 .8 4 6 .7 0
7 .2 3+ 2 .0 8 7 .0 5
7 .4 6-  4 .9 6
-  3 .0 86 .7 0
6 .8 8+ 5 .2 2  
+ 8 .4 35 .8 3
6 .0 2+ 1 4 .9  
^ 1 4 .3t  0 .6 6
t+ 4 .0 7
C1) 1 9 8 1 -1 9 8 3  ' ,  * :  FORMULA
( 2 )  1 9 8 1 -1 9 8 4  * (1 + A nnual change.·;  )=  number o f ye a rs
( 3 )  .U ith U n ited  Kingdom f o r  198.1-83 and 1981 -84
. .  .D a t a  not a v a ila b le ·'.': ·· (1 + Annual change . ·

TABLE· G
CHANGES IN HOURS WORKED PER ANNUM AND PER WORKER  
IN THE IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY OF THE  
EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
U n it : hours worked per annum
Member co u n try 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984P ercentage change
1980/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1980/1982 1980/1984
B. R. Deutschland 1513 1  488Fîours  
1  430 1420 1,494' -  1 .7 -  3 .9 -  0 .7 +5 .2 -  6.1 -  1 .3
France 1658' 1  668 1602 1545 1537 + 0 .6 -  4 .0 -  3 .6-0 .5 -  6 .8-  7 .3
I t a l i a 1632 1.557 ' 1 586 1427 1572 -  4 .6 + 1 .9 - 1 0 .0+1 0 .2-1 2 .6 -  3 .7
N ederlan d 1542 1 552 1440 1506 1.607 + 0 .6 -  7 .2 + 4 .6+6 .7-  2 .3 + 4 .0
B e lg iq u e 1594 1 548 1445. 1.522 ‘1.563 -  2 .9 -  6 .7 + 5 .3+2 .7-  4 .5 -  1 .9
Luxembourg 1708 1 .729 1721 1.658 1297 + 1 .2 -  0 .5 -  3 .7-2 1 .8-  2 .9 ·"-  24.1
Mrean 7 c o u n trie s  
. 1.JL W eighted  
2) A r ith m e tic a l1
1585
6081. 557  
1  5901
1510
5371
1470
5131
1526
512-  1 .8 
-  1.1 .- 3 .0
- 3 .3- 2 .7
- 1 .6+3 .8
0 .1- 7 .3
- 5 .9- 3 .7
- 6 .0
U n ite d  Kingdom- · 1.748 1736 li779 1790 • . -  0 .7 + 2 .5+0 .6J.
M'san  7 c o u n trie s
1) W eighted
2) A rith m e ti c a l· · 1 589  
1 6131
1545
5661
1512
5511
1.562
551- ·-  2 .8 
-  2 .9-  2 .1 
-  1 .0+3 .3
0- - ·■
Danmark· · · · · · 1785 1760- - . . -1 .4m m
M'ean 8 c o u n trie s
1) W eighted
2 ) A rith m e ti c a l ■· - - · ·1
1513
5801
1562
577- ·· ·
· ·*+ 3 .2
0 .2- ·
· ·
Data not a v a i l a b l e . '

t  ô  b  L  6 . H
STEEL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITIES ‘
IN THE ECSC IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY
\
Ì
Unit :  m i 1 . 1  ran tonnes
Y E A R» .  I
i
TOTAL !•
O F WHICH' TOTAL ' ■PRODUCTION
CRUDE I CAPACITIES . '
STEEL1
·. . 'CONTINUOUS O TH E R QUANTITIES 'ratio  . . V. Iratio  c r u d e
iSTEEL(1) CASTING ■P R O C ES SES CAPACITY/•  Ij * C R U D E  STEEL (PRODUCTION/
I!I^  iIy >
s•PRODUCTION
i
:  %•c a p a c ity
1  i
!  ' !
1974 Q 156.3 12.0 88.0’
178.9I
!  115.0I!  86.91  i
1975 Q 126.0 ƒ 16.0 84.0 190.1 151.411  j
j  66.1 ΊI
1976 Q 134.8 20,0 80.0 197.61
147.5I
i 67.8
1977 Q 126.7 24.4 75.6 20C.9 159.3I
62.8
1978 Q 133.3 27.5 72.5ί
!  202.1 j 152.4!  i 
!  65.6 !I  i
1979 Q 141.0 29.4 70.6 203.5 145.1i  I
j 68.9 ]
1980 Q 128.6 36.4S
63.6I
; 202.5tI
ί 157.5 63.5
1981 Q 126.1 42.2 57.0 197.9 156.9 : 63.7
1982 Q 111.4 48.6-
51.4 198.3 '178.0 56.2
1983I
Q 109.5 !  54.9 45.1 190.2II
i  173.7
I57.6
1984 Q 120.3I
; ■  (61.0)1(39.0)I iij
Ì
1990 Q  i 119.6 *! (75.0)11
i(25.0)
iIiί
I
I11I
iI
II
(1) For 1974 to 1979 inclusively, Com m unity without Greece
(2) U tilisâtion rate  
( ) Estimate.
* M axim u m  expected production

Table* I
ECSC STEEL INDUSTRY HOURS NOT WORKED ' U nite r T Ö O Ü h “ '
PERIOD SBUNDES­
REPUBLIK
DEUTSCHLANDFRANCE ITA LIA NEDERLAND BELGIQUE LUXEMBOURGUNITED
KINGDOMIRELAND DANMARKCOMMUNITY
TOTAL
(e x c lu d in g
G ree ce )
MONTHLY AVERAGES
Years.. •
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984228 
397 
1 377  
1  455  
221108
200
173
264
25208 
580 
785 
1  811  
1  286108
219
109
3297
250
405
404
1540
220
430
334
133406
249
85
130
0
7
0
011
5
14
0
12 166
3 659
4 462  
1 836
Q u a rte rs
19 80 I  
I I 
I I I 
IV120
8
74
70927
48
17
342134
233
206
2582
30045
32
338
7740
0
0
0- -0
0
0
00
0
9
36- -
1981 I  
I I 
I I I 
IV559
255
363
410332
246
108
112403
763
652
502217
20
13
182394
250
156
2010
0
437
4441  136  
380 
90 
180
0
0
08
, 0  
11 
03 049  
1 914  
1 830  
1 869
19 82
I I
I I I
IV366 
351 
1 586  
3 20628
22
3 9
604402 
380 
821 
1 535202
107
168
400193
324
342
760439
399
394
48648
79
179
6920
0
28
04
2
26
241 682  
1 664  
3 583  
7  707
1 9 8 3  I  
I I 
i i i 
IV2 246  
1 230  
1 318  
1  027561
305
108
802 227  
1 856  
1 400  
1  763303
87
13
32610
386
286
332450
358
275
253256
37
10
370
0
0
00
0
0
06 653  
4 259  
3 410  
3 524
1 9 84 I
I I  ____
I I
I 
IV  ·602
____  220
43
1
967
11
9
141  844  
1  578  
883 
83811
0
0
0256 -  
133 
95 
131190
146
96
9718
12
6
150
0
0
00
0
0
22 988  
2 100  
1 132  
1 116

VII/1
C H A P T E R  VII  
S U P P L Y
Section 1. S C R A P
S o  far it has generally been accepted that for a  whole range of products,  
and in particular long products, the scrap-fed electric arc process is the  
m ost profitable. Com pared with integrated plants, mini-mills, as w e  have  
already said in previous Objectives, have the advantage of :
- needing lower investment costs;
- requiring easier management;
- having better fle x ib ility  to cope with market changes.
However, this situation depends entirely on the availability and the price  
of scrap. The Commission has m a d e  an in-depth study of these two points,  
and findings were sent o n  4 M a y  1984 to the M em ber States and to the trade  
organizations affected. This docum ent has n o w  been revised and updated  
and is reproduced hereafter.
There are, however, certain conclusions that m ust be drawn, especially  
after the period of extreme tension that has prevailed on the scrap market  
for two years. These conclusions are as follows :
------  (a) tbe export of scrap to non-Community~countries has n o w  becom e
st
ructural in character due largely to a  reduction in American  
exports which have traditionally been directed towards  
countries that are n o w  seeking supply within the Community;
(b) the collection of scrap is becoming m ore and m ore of a  
"production" operation, largely because of the technical  
requirements described in the Annex.
Consequently, the price of scrap will not drop back d o w n  to the level that  
m a d e  the electric furnace process s o  attractive to steelmakers. In  
addition, account has to be taken of the evential repercussions of the  
dollar rate, since scrap prices follow the "composite price", which is  
fixed in U S  currency.

VI1/2
C o m p an y strategies, especially where new  investments are concerned, m ust  
therefore take account of this structural change in the supply of scrap.  
In particular, the electric furnace option m ust be based, in terms of  
p ro fita b ility, on other economic criteria than the (speculative) price of
-scrap. -----Irr the uredfum  and- long-term, the Community can "expect structural
pr
oblems related to the supply of scrap. The potential availability, the  
technical m eans (and attendant investments) required for the "production"  
of scrap that can be used in the steel industry and, m ore generally, the  
various economic factors involved w ill thus have to be examined on a  
priority basis and dealt with in highly detailed technical and economic  
studies. Only on this condition can production structures based on the  
electric furnace be properly evaluated.
A N ALYSIS O F  T H E  S T E E L  S C R A P  M A R K E T  - P R O S P E C T S  F O R  1990  
IN TR O D U C TIO N
A s  a result of the tensions which dominated the scrap market at the end of  
J983, the Commission (in Docum ent C0M(84) 33 final of 26 January 1984)  
indicated that the big increase in exports to non-Community countries w as  
the main reason for the steep increase in scrap prices and proposed that  
the Council should set a ceiling on these exports in order to prevent such  
a  situation occurring again.
Before proposing measures to restrict exports, the Council asked the  
Commission to :
1) trace the short -  and medium-term aspects of the phenom enon by making a  
very careful statistical check of prices and export levels;
2) identify the structural components of the phenom enon in order to  
determine whether the Com m unity market w as tending towards a  state of  
instability which - because of price m ovem ents - could interfere with  
the Community's steel policy measures.
This document aims to deal with the second point in a  rapid survey of  
supply and demand.

V II/3
1. S U P P L Y
Scrap, insofar as it is a raw material for the steel industry, is m ad e  
up of :
-  scrap arisings in the different production stages;
-  scrap arisings in the conversion industries;
- the recovery of steel from obsolete equipment.
Production scrap in the steel industry
Steel making produces scrap a ll along the production line. The type  
and age of the installation and the structures and quality of the  
product result in m ore or less scrap being produced and determine the  
different amounts of circulating scrap produced by the steel industry  
in the various countries. In the seventies a  num ber of technological  
innovations led to a  reduction in the am ount of scrap produced but the  
main stage in which this trend played a  really important part w as that  
in which liquid steel is processed into semifinished products by  
continuous casting which eliminates the ingot casting stage.  
Continuous casting gives 1 0 %  less scrap than the ingot route, i.e . a  
reduction of 100 kg/t.
The table below gives the increase in continuous casting for the main  
producer countries (continuously cast steel as a  percentage of the  
total am ount of steel produced) :
1981 1983 1984 1990
E E C 45,1 61,4 64,8 (75)
SPAIN 40 46 49(EST) (58)
This trend, which w as particularly marked in Japan and the EEC, led to  
the following decreases in scrap production in the steel industry  
(scrap as a  percentage of the total am ount of steel produced) :
1972 1981 1983 1990
E E C 2 1 16 15 13
SPAIN 2 1 17 16 14

V II/4
The difference between the starting figures reflects the up-to-date  
nature of the installations; changes over a  period of time express  
technological changes, particularly the effect of the continuous  
casting method.
Scrap arisings in the conversion industry
There has been lit t le  change in the pattern of scrap production in the  
conversion industries in the last few years in spite of the  
introduction of major n ew  technologies in certain sectors (e.g.  
numerically controlled machines tools in engineering). The
differences in the am ount of scrap obtained in the main producer  
countries are the result of differences in the structure of their  
conversion industries.
Scrap production remained m ore or less constant in the last few years  
and breaks dow n  as follow (as a  percentage of steel consumption) :
1984
E E C  14-15%
U S A  16 -  1 7 %
JA P A N  1 1  -  1 2 %
Recovery of obsolete products m ad e from steel
There is a very low correlation between the recovery of these  
materials and the steel-making variables, production and consumption.  
It depends on the structure of 'the scrap-collecting industry which  
varies enormously from country to country and ranges from the small  
one-man outfit to large scrapyards equipped to handle and select  
scrap.
The most important products from the point of view of scrap collection  
are old cars and other m eans of transport, household appliances,  
obsolete industrial equipment, rails and machine tools.
G ood quality scrap  is also obtained from shipbreaking. The shipping  
crisis of the last few years has brought about an increase of so m e  
100%  in shipbreaking worldwide. The steel contained in buildings,

V II/5
pyIons, bridges and other structures which become obsolete represents  
a further reserve of scrap. The fact that this type of scrap is  
coming on to the market is the consequence of high prices in the scrap  
market; these must be such as to cover the_cost of demolition and  
s t i l l  allow an acceptable p ro fit.
Although the various collection systems examined have generally shown  
themselves to be e la s tic  in relation to demand, there is very l i t t l e  
mechanization in the collecting structures, at least in som e  
countries, and this might lead to problems in future. Each country,  
then, has a reserve of scrap which is linked to the average life  of  
the steel consumed (up to 15 years).
The biggest reserves are held by the most highly industrialized  
countries -  which therefore also have a high per capita steel  
consumption -  but during the 1970s changes in in direct exports (e.g .  
car exports from Japan) have resulted in transferring a large quantity  
of potential scrap to other countries which, in general, are less  
developed.
Reserves are growing in steel-im porting countries, i.e . in those that  
consume more than they produce. These include several developing  
countries as well as the USA. The la tte r , which also has a very high  
per capital consumption, has the world's largest reserves.
Global supplies on the Community's markets are given in the following  
table :

C H A N G E S  IN T H E  S O U R C E S  O F  T H E  S C R A P  AVAILABLE O N  T H E  C O M M U N IT Y  M A R K E T
(t/OOO)
Sources
In the steel  
industry
1  1 Apparent |  Scrap a ri- | I of w hich
1  1 consumption | sings as a | I Total
1  1 of crude |  percentage | I Scrap a ri- I ressources
1  1 steel (excl. I C  rude I of | I sings in the I of the
1  1 liquid steel I  steel Scrap |crude steel | Internal I conversion I Other national
1  1for casting) I  production arising |  production |
I IRecovery I Total
Iindustries I  sources
Imarket
1  1  
1  1974 I  I  I129.159 I 155.-587 30.981I I 
I 21 I
I I1.463I
I  36.786 18.653I
I  18.133 69.230
I  1976 I 122.366 I  134.136 25.936I I  
I 19 | 968I
I  34.790 17.6811
1  16.828 61.413
I  1977 I 116.751 I  126.121 24.899 I 20 | 969 I  33.529 16.851 I  16.678 59.397
I  1978 I 116.545 I  132.580 24.341 I 18 | 990 I  37.238 16.826 I  20.898 63.055
I  1979 I 124.352 I  140.195 25.211 I 18 | 1.087 I  37.595 17.932 I  20.076 63.893
I  1980 I 119.139 I  127.734 22.846 I  18 | 1.146 I  35.023 17.085 I 18.010 59.015
I  1981 I 115.240 I  125.144 21.871 I  18 | 1.254 I 36.618 16.591 I  20.468 59.743
I  1982 I 108.258 I 110.509 18.146 I  16 | 1.166 I  35.753 15.550 I  20.203 55.065
I  1983 I
I I105.586 I 108.668 16.791 I  15 |
I  I1.119 I  37.910
I15.207 I  22.703
I55.820Deliveries from the  
national market

V II/7
2. D E M A N D
Almost a ll scrap used in the iron and steel industry is used in steel  
making but marginal quantities are also used in blast furnaces and in  
re -ro llin g .
Steelworks' consumption depends on changes in the various steel­
making processes. Technological change has brought about structural  
changes in conversion processes. Throughout the world the Thomas and  
Bessemer processes -  as well as the Martin-Siemens have now  
disappeared and been replaced by various generations of oxygen  
converter and by e le c tric  furnaces.
In p a rtic u la r, there have been the following changes in the E E C  :
STEEL PRODUCTION B YP R O C ESS - 1974 and 1984
(as a percentage ofto ta l steel production)
1  Oxygen  
1I  E lectric |  
I IS.M. I Other  
I
1  74 84 1 74I
84 I 74 I 84I
I 75 I 84
Germany 1  69 81 |11 18 I 17 I  1 I  3 I  =
France 1  58 81 112 19 I 11 I  =I  19 I  =
Ita ly 1  44 47 1 41 53 I 15 I  = I  = I =
Netherlands 1  92 95 I  7 5 I -  I = I  = I =
Belgium 1  80 93 I  4 7 I 1  I  =I  15 I  =
Luxembourg 1  65 1100 !  2I  = 1= I  = I  33 I =
United Kingdom 1  48 I 66 123I  34 I 28 I  =I  1  I  =
Ireland 1  = I  =1 51 1100 I 49 I  = I  = I =
Denmark 1  = I  = I  4|100 I 96 I = I  = I =
Total E E C 1  62I  74 116 !  26 I 15 I = I  7 I  =
Spain 1I  4 3 II  57 I I I  I
(EST) (EST)
Thus, whereas at Community level steel production in e le c tric  furnaces  
represents 26%  of to ta l production, in the U.K. and Ita ly  i t  accounts  
for a m uch higher percentage and, consequently, a very high  
consumption of scrap. The abovementioned two processes use very  
d iffe re n t quantities of scrap per tonne of steel produced.

V II/8
From  the s tr ic tly  technical point of view the proportion of scrap  
charged in oxygen steelmaking is th e o re tic a lly  highly e la s tic . A  big  
charge gives better conversion because i t  uses from the melting the  
heat from the exothermic reaction and maintains the temperature of the  
flu id  mass at near-optimum level.
In practice, the scrap charge m ay very between 10 and 30%  but i t  is  
mainly the a v a ila b ility  and the price of scrap which determine the  
actual amounts used. For instance, Japan, which is a steel-im porting  
country, uses 11%  on average. By contrast, the U S A  uses over 30%. In  
the E E C  the amount is som e 22%.
E lectric furnaces on the other hand use at least 95%  scrap as a raw  
m aterial because i t  is available and costs less than cast iron and  
pre-reduced products.
Scrap consumption in the steel industry is therefore related to the  
spread of use of e le c tric  furnaces and the percentage of scrap used in  
oxygen converters.
1984
Germany 374
France 317
Ita ly 674
Netherlands 251
Belgium and
Luxembourg 370
U.K. 501
Ireland over 1000
Denmark over 1000
E U R  9 449
Spain 746
SC R A P CONSUM PTION IN FOUNDRIES
Foundry production in the E E C  in 1984 amounted to 9.2 m illion tonnes  
of finished products (8.2 m illion tonnes in cast iron and 1.0 m illion  
tonnes in s te e l), amounting to som e 15%  of world production (65  
m illion tonnes). The amount of material used to produce these 9.2

V II/9
m illion tonnes of castings was 14.400.000 (i.e.160%  of the weight of  
the finished products) and breaks down as follows :
Scrap consumption in E E C  steel works and foundries therefore amounted  
to som e 11.1 m illion tonnes of which 4.2 m illion were ow n scrap  
arisings and 6.9 m illion were recovered scrap. Of the la tte r 6.9  
m illion tonnes of scrap som e 4.2 m illion were steel scrap, a quantity  
which helps cover to ta l demand for scrap in the Community market.
THE B A LA N C E B ETW EEN  SUPPLY A N D  D E M A N D  A N D  EXTERNAL TR A D E
For the Community as a whole consumption is easily covered by internal  
sources as imports represented only 2.3% of the to ta l in 1974 and 3.2%  
in 1984. In addition, i f  w e look at the external trade balance, w e  
can see that the Community has become a net exporter since 1980.
O n  the other hand, exports and imports broken down by country show a  
d iffe re n t picture resulting from the level of intra-Community trade.  
France, Germany and the United Kingdom are the biggest exporters  
whilst Ita ly  and Spain are the biggest importers.
The major trade flows are between countries in close geographical  
proximity (from France and Germany to Ita ly ; from the United Kingdom  
to Spain) because freight costs for this very low-cost product are  
high.
External trade
Scrap is traded in a free market and price is determined by demand and  
supply. However i t  is a world market. The principal index of world  
prices is the "Composite Price" calculated by "Iron Age" -  this is  
expressed in dollars (U .S .). During 1984 demand has s ig n ific a n tly  
increased in several th ird  markets with developing steel industries,  
such as Spain, Korea, In d ia, Turkey -  also in som e state trading-  Total pig iron (including hot metal)
-  Ferro-aUoys
-  Steel and cast iron scrap
-  Returned scrap3 000 000
_ 2 6 4 000
6 900 000
4 250 000

V II/1 0
countries. As a result Community exports (4.063 M/t in 1982) have  
reached 5.631 M/t in 1983 and are expected to be about 6.5 M/t in  
1984.
Higher demand has caused high prices -----between January'83 and
Ja
nuary '8 4 , the 'Composite Price' has risen by 55%, but the effect on  
the Community has been more severe, as a result of exchange movements  
in favour of the d o lla r. Thus during the same period prices in EC U s  
have doubled, even although i t  should be noted that January'83 prices  
were at a h isto ric low.
This situation caused problems for those Community countries which had  
to pay this price to obtain the supplies they needed -  p rin cipally  
It a ly , Denmark and Irelan d , which on several occasions requested the  
Commission to fix  a th ird  country export ceiling in order to reduce  
the level of prices.
Although since February 1984 d o llar prices have tended to be stable,  
the e rra tic  do llar exchange rate has continued to disturb the  
Community scrap market during 1984 and in the fir s t  part of 1985.  
Meanwhile certain countries, notably Ita ly  have complained of supply  
problems p a rtic u la rly  for good quality scrap.
In fact the steel industry requires increasing quantities of good  
quality scrap, for which supply continues to diminish. Such material  
arises p rin cip ally from within the steel industry and the steel  
conversion industries.
Factors causing this reduction in supply are varied -  increasing use  
of the continuous casting process, improved steel fabricating  
technology, lower a c tiv ity  in the steel using sectors and more  
rational use of raw materials (in  this case s te e l).
5. PRO SPECTS F O R  1990
Forecasts for 1990 can be prepared on the basis of o ffic ia l  
s ta tis tic s , the latest evaluation for 1984 and the facts and figures  
contained in th is study.

V II/11
The following assumptions are made :
-  In 1990 scrap produced by the steel industry w ill represent 13%  of  
crude steel production as a result of technological innovations in  
processes and, in p a rtic u la r, the wider use of continuous casting;
-  In 1990 the ra tio  of oxygen-refined steel to electric-furnace steel  
production w ill be 70/30%;
-  These assumptions are based on present restructuring plans som e of  
which have not yet clearly defined the new structures in steel  
works. A  cautious assumption has therefore been made.
-  Dem and for steel scrap in foundries w ill be around 4 m illion tonnes.
F in a lly , the optim istic scenario on steel production has been chosen.
The forecast is therefore as follows :
Steel production  
Scrap consumptiond)
O w n  production in the steel industry  
Quantities to be bought  
Purchases by independent iron  
foundries
TOTAL requirements1982 1984 (e s t.) 1990
110,4 120,3 119,7
48,5 53,2 54,5
19,3 18,0 15,5
29,2 35,2 39,0
3,5 4,0 4,5
32,7 39,2 43,5
O n  the basis of these figures the steel industry should purchase about  
43.5 M/t on the market in 1990. The internal market is th e o ritic a lly  
capable of satisfying this demand given the level of reserves and the  
structure of the scrap recovery system. In contrast i t  is not clear  
whether the quality of the supply w ill be able to satisfy the  
standards of requirements which grow d aily more demanding.
In this context the Commission's s ta ff have demonstrated, already in  
1984, the risk of a-quality inbalance in the Community market.
Including integrated and separate steel works, integrated iron  
foundries, blast furnaces and ro llin g  m ills .

V II/1 2
Section 2. R A W  MATERIALS SUPPLY F O R  TH E CO M M U N ITY STEEL INDUSTRY
Apart from scrap, iron and manganese ore as well as alloy ores and the  
ferro -allo ys made out of them are raw materials used by the steel  
industry. Of these, only iron and manganese ore plus high-carbon fe rro ­
manganese are covered by the E C S C  Treaty, whereas alloy ores and the other  
ferro-alloys are covered by the E E C  Treaty.
1. Iron ore
In terms of quantity there is unlikely to be any worldwide shortage of  
iron ore in the future. However, the immediate future w ill see
p r o fita b ility  and competition in the steel sector force demand  
towards the best (and at the sam e time cheapest) sources of raw  
m aterials. Thus, instead of a problem of quantity there w ill be a  
problem of q u a lity . Short-term supply bottlenecks should not however  
be excluded.
Iron-ore mining in the Community w ill continue to decline  
Since, with the exception of Greece, where iron ore concentrates are  
obtained as a by-product of nickel-ore mining, existing mines supply  
only the local steel industry with iron-ore, th e ir fate w ill depend  
very largely on how  that industry fares.
Iron-ore mining in Germany, France, Greece and the United Kingdom,  
which amounted to around 18 m illion tonnes in 1984, w ill have sunk to  
about 12 m illion tonnes per year in 1990, which should correspond to  
an iron content of about 4 m illion tonnes. Indigenous iron-ore mining  
would therefore cover less than 5 %  of the to ta l ore consumption in the  
Community and hence fade into insignificance. Furhter technical aids  
to make the remaining ore reserves competitive would seem to serve  
l i t t l e  purpose and would not prevent p it closures, but merely provide  
an a r t if ic ia l means of delaying such closures in the short term.
The accession of Spain and Portugal to the Community w ill, at a fir s t  
stage, increase the Community production by som e 7-8 m illion tonnes.  
Although both countries dispose of iron ore resources v irtu a lly  a ll of  
this production comes from Spanish mines. Since most of the iron ore

VII/13
resources of the iberian peninsula are only worthwile to exploit in  
the context of a local steel industry - given their relatively reduced  
Fe-content and impurities - the future of various iron ore mines will  
be determined by the restructuring plans for the steel industry.
Nevertheless Spain exports iron ore, nearly exclusively to Community  
countries. Export quantities, which were in 1983 of the order of 1.6  
million tonnes, are expected to fall in the future because of the  
increasing quality requirements for ores.
Consequently, the Community is forced to concentrate its raw material  
supplies on sources in other countries, particularly overseas.
At the moment some 25% of supplies are covered by the direct  
involvement of the Community steel industry in iron-ore mining  
overseas. However, if the financial situation, for example, of the  
Community undertaking in Liberia does not pick up of its own accord or  
with aid from third parties, in the near future some 7-8 million  
tonnes a year would be lost and the Community's direct involvement in  
mining in other countries would decrease accordingly.
About 65% of current iron-ore supplies to the Community are covered by  
long-term agreements, meaning that some 10% of supplies are negotiated  
on the spot market. It must be said, however, that approximately 80%  
of all supplies come from only five countries. In addition, many  
supplier countries could find themselves confronted in the near future  
with economic or political problems and suddenly cease to be  
suppliers, meaning that the supply of raw materials is secure only to  
a degree.
At the moment, the expected shutdown on the world market of about 50  
million tonnes a year for reasons of exhausted deposits or  
profitability is offset only by the tapping of new reserves in the  
Carajas project in Brazil. However,some mining companies are  
currently only working to 70% of their capacity while other projects,  
particularly in Australia, are waiting for the right moment for  
implementation. A development of this kind, however, would bring  
about the adverse effects of a further reduction in the number of  
iron-ore supplier countries.

VII/14
In view of this change in iron-ore supplies, the Community sould  
direct its attention to ore projects in West Africa. Should these  
prove to be economically viable every effort must be made to include  
these deposits in a Community raw materials supply policy.
Manganese and ferro-manganese
In the steel industry manganese is used :
in blast furnaces in the form of manganese ore, and  
-in melting shops as :
.  high-carbon ferro-manganese,
.  refined ferro-manganese,
.  super-refined ferro-manganese, and  
.  ferro-silico-manganese.
Blast furnace consumption of manganese ore has already fallen  
significantly and will soon cease altogether.
Melting-shop consumption is about 6 kg manganese per tonne of steel,  
but the trend is downwards and high-carbon ferro-manganese is giving  
warn to the other manganese alloys. By 1990, an average specific  
consumption of only 4.5 kg per tonne (equivalent to 3.4 kg manganese)  
can be expected. Since high-carbon ferro-manganese is the variety  
which the Community produces most of - still meeting about 75% of  
requirements - such a decline will have a negative effect on the  
development of this sector in the Community. Social and regional
repercussions will also have to be borne in mind.
As far as the security of manganese supplies is concerned, there is no  
problem as regards quantity, buth the geographical distribution of ore  
deposits is very concentrated, and this requires special attention.
Other alloys
The Community is deficient in raw-material deposits in the alloys  
sector. Workable chromium and nickel ores are found only in Greece  
and tungsten in Southern France and the United Kingdom. In terms of  
quality and quantity, however, they are not comparable with the  
abundant ore deposits found overseas.

VII/15
The Community's strength has so far been in the processing of alloy  
ores. Since, however, the Community has few advantages in this sector  
other than know-how and installations that in some cases are no longer  
highly modern, and ore-producing countries in the Third World are  
insisting on taking over the processing into ferro-alloys for  
themselves, our industry, e.g. mass-produced alloys, is running into  
difficulties.
In some raw materials there is also the danger of "outside" oligopoly  
or monopoly with the amalgamation of associations with common  
interests in which the Community industries have tittle or no  
influence. With the current good economic situation in both the  
production and consumption of ferro-alloys there are only slight signs  
of a development of this kind. Nonetheless, the indigenous production  
capacity in ferro-chromium has already had to be reduced once by two  
thi rds.
On raw-material supply policy grounds, the Community adopted a scheme  
whereby the steel industry purchases the remaining production.  
Whether the steel industry will stay faithful to the indigenous  
ferro-chromium industry in the event of a further crisis or whether it  
will rely entirely on non-Community producers on account of short-term  
profits remains to be seen. A similar trend is also emerging for  
other mass-produced alloys (cf. ferro-manganese).
The example of ferro-chromium is symptomatic of the situation in the  
entire Community ferro-alloy industry and is likely to give the steel  
industry food for thought. Whether and to what extent the Community  
ferro-alloy industry, like the steel industry, should or must commit  
itself, either alone or with financial aid from the Community, to  
projects in non-Community countries for raw-material supplies will, in  
the end depend also on the attitude of the steel industry towards the  
ferro-alloy industry.

VII/16
Section 3. ENERGY SUPPLY FOR THE COMMUNITY STEEL INDUSTRY  
1 -  Introduction
In quantitative terms, no difficulties are anticipated in supplying  
the iron and steel industry up to 1990 and beyond.
It is expected that the injection of solid fuels will be extended in  
blast furnace operations, and that further progress will be made in  
the rational use of energy upstream and downstream of the blast  
furnace.
2. Solid fuel requirements for blast furnace operations
As indicated in Chapter III, the working hypothesis used is that of a  
yearly Community production of crude steel of, at most, 120 million  
tonnes in 1990, i.e. the same as in 1984. If, for quality reasons,  
electric-furnace steel will, to a large extent, be specified for the 
manufacture of long products, a stable production level of electric-  
furnace steel of around 31 million tonnes is to be expected. Oxygen-  
blown steel will make up the remaining (120 - 31) = 89 million tonnes,  
and for the production of this pig iron and blast-furnace fuels are  
required.
With oxygen-blown steel production at 89 million tonnes it may be  
assumed that pig-iron requirements, including foundry pig iron, will  
lie between 82 and 85 million tonnes (1984 :  83.5 million tonnes),
according to the quantity of scrap used in the converterd).
The use of coke and coke breeze grew to 600 kg/tonne in 1981, owing to  
cuts in oil consumption. Since then there has been a continuing  
reduction in the use of solid fuels :  a level of 550 kg/tonne is  
expected in 1990, 510 kg of which being coke, including breeze, and 40  
kg raw coal for injection. In 1984 seven facilities for injecting  
coal into blast furnaces were in operation in the Community, using
)  The use of scrap is extremely variable between companies and can even  
fluctuate from one period to another.

VII/I7
about 0.5 million tonnes of injection coal, replacing about the same  
quantity of coke; it is expected that the use of this process will  
increase rapidly.
Other coke-replacement processes are unlikèTÿ To cause a sfgniTrcant--  
reduction in requirements by 1990.
On the basis of the above assumptions, the average yearly coke  
requirements of the steel industry are calculated at between 42 and  
43.5 million tonnes. Requirements outside the steel industry are  
estimated at between 5 and 6 million tonnes a year. If we add to this  
net annual exports of from 2 to 3.5 million tonnes, the total coke  
requirement for 1990 comes to between 49 and 53 million tonnes, for  
which from 66 to 72 million tonnes of coking coal will be required.
Supplies of solid fuel
With a level of utilization of 90%, a coking plant capacity of 54-59  
million tonnes/year would be required for the production of the 49-53  
million tonnes of coke mentioned above. According to the latest  
submissions from Community coking plant operators, coking capacity  
will fall from 66 million tonnes in 1984 to 64 million tonnes in 1987.  
It must be expected that capacity will continue to fall after 1987;  
however it should still be sufficient in 1990 to cover the coke  
requirements estimated above.
No difficulties are expected in the preparation of the coking coal;  
the same is also true of other solid fuels.
Supplies of other forms of energy for the iron and steel industry
For the supply of liquid fuels, gas and electricity for the  
manufacture and further processing of steel, no difficulties are  
forecast up to 1990 and beyond.
Energy savings
The steel industry accounts for about 8% of primary and 20% of  
industrial energy consumption in the Community.

VII/18
Energy conservation is an essential means to improving in the 
Community steel industry's competitiveness and viability. Energy  
accounts for about 25-30% of production costs in an integrated steel  
works and 15-20%(1) in an electric furnace steel plant.
Potential energy savings in 1990 can be reckoned at 5% of 1983 energy  
consumption (i.e. 4-5 million tpy). These savings can be achieved
notably by :
- using optimal-energy raw materials :  for instance, making maximum
use of indegenous scrap;
- more efficient energy management coupled with the reduction of  
losses in existing plant and machinery and processes(2);
- greater use of energy recovery and waste-gas recirculation  
techniques, e.g. the re-use of back-pressure at the furnace throat,  
or the recovery of converter gas.
(1) Not counting the energy content of scrap.
(2) For instance, heat recovery.