ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEEDES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM(76)480
Vol.1976/0145

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COMMISSION OFTHEEUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
COM(76)480final.
!
I Brussels,8September1976.
y
COMMUNICATION FROMTHECOMMISSION TOTHECOUNCIL
concerningtheeffectofthedroughtonagriculture
i\
CCM(76)480final

INTRODUCTION
Thisdocument,whichhasbeenpreparedfortheextraordinary meeting
oftheCounciloftheEuropeanCommunities ontheeffectsofthe
droughtonagricultureto"beheldon9September1976,oontainB
-ageneralsurveyoftheregionsaffectedbythedroughtsincethewinterof1975/76,and
-estimatesofproductionandsupplyforseveralagricultural
productsinthe1976/77marketingyear.
Itshouldbestressedthatdataonthedroughtandtheregionsaffeoted
byitandestimatesofsuppliesarenecessarilyofageneralkindand
(very)provisional.Indeed,withthedataavailabletotheCommission
theextentofthedroughtoanbeindioatedonlyforrelativelylarge
regionsasawhole;finerdetails,insomecasesfairlysignificant ,
cannotbeshown.Further,theforwardestimatesofsuppliesforthe
1976/77marketingyearareequallyprovisional,bothforoertain
products(maize,sugar,wine,beefandveal)andforalmostall
consumptionfigures.
TheCommission,however,believesthatonthebasisofthefollowing
indicationstheCouncilwillobtainafairlyrealistiopictureof
theeffectsofthedroughtonCommunityagriculture.
xheregionsmostaffectedbythedrought
ApartfromcertainregionsinsouthernPrance,GermanyandItaly,
IrelandandScotland,thedroughthassinoethewinterof1975/76
affeotedagriculture almostthroughouttheCommunity.Someofthe
affectedregionshadlittleraininthewinter,otherslittlein
thespringorsummer,whilesomehavebeenshortofrainthroughoutthisperiod(December1975-August1976).
ForthesakeofsimplicitytheCommissionhasusedthesingle
criterionofrainfalltodefinetheregionsaffectedbythedrought.
ItisofcoursewellknownthatseveralotherphenomenaalBOhave
aninfluenoeonthegrowthofagricultural oropsitemperature,
relativehumidity,frost,eto.

Further,thelackofrainwouldcertainlynotalwayshavethesame
effeotonfarmproduction:thecompositionofthesoil,thewater
table,andthetypeofagricultural productallhaveaninfluence
thatsometimesismoreimportantthanaslightdifferenceinrainfall*
Nevertheless,whilefarfromoomplete,thesurveyofrainfallgives
afairlygoodpiotureofthedifficulties ofregionsaffected "bythe
drought.Withthisasabasisitis,however,importanttolookseparatelyatrainfallinthewinter(heavysoil,wintergrain),inthespring(lightsoil,allproducts),inthesummer(latecrops).
DuringtheperiodDecember1975toMarch1976lessthantwo-thirds
ofthenormalamountofrainfallinthefollowingregions:
England:CentreandSouth-east
Belgium-Luxembourg
Germany:Centre,Centre-west andSouth-west
Prance:tothenorthofalinethroughBordeaux,ClermontFerrand
andMalhouse
Italy:northernregion
DuringtheperiodApril-June1976,whichisthegrowingperiodfor
crops,lessthanhalfthenormalrainfellintheaboveregionsand
incertainregionsinthesouthandeastoftheNetherlands and
northernGermany.
TheregionsthemostaffeotedduringthisperiodweretheWestand
North-westofFrance,Belgium/Luxembourg,England(EastandSouth-east),
Germany(Centre)andtheregionfromI^rontoMilan.
InJulyandAugustafairamountofrainfellinthesouthernpart
oftheEEC(southofalinethroughNantes-Dijon-Strasbourg-Regenburg),
butlittleorverylittleraininthenorthernregionsoftheEEC.
Overabeltabout100-150kilometreswidealongtheAtlanticcoast
northwardsfromNantes,andinthegreaterpartoftheUnitedKingdom
andIrelandrainfallwas$0%lessthannormal.
TotalrainfallduringtheperiodDecember1975"toAugust197°was
40$lessthannormalinanareainthewestofFrance(Brittanyand
Normandyinparticular)and60%lessinalargerareaconsistingof
thenorthofFrance,BelgiumandLuxembourg,thesouthofthe
Netherlands,theoentreofGermanyandthesouth-eastofEngland.
SESMAPBELOW

-3-
DROUGHTAFFECTEDREGIONS
•ψ{
PERIODt1.12.1975-31.8.1976
mthroughouttheperiodDec.I975–-Aug.1976
duringtwoperiods
duringoneperiod
EEC-OGVI-G/2-7609.87
Periods:1.Deo.'75-March'76(rainfalllessthan2/3rdsnormal)
2.April-June'76(rainfallhalfofnormal)
3.July-August'76(rainfallhalfofnozmal)

n
j -4-'
i
DROUGHTAFFECTED REOIOBS
I• '
i "
!Il
Τ
' PERIOD:1.12.1975-31.8.1976
i'f" '•
|^jf^.•
lillllrainfalllessthan40$normal
rainfallless"than60$normal f'\v^
|KEC-OGV|-G/2-7609.86j
I
\

-5-
Supplypositionforcertainagricultural produots
Asmentionedabove,theCommissiondrawsattentiontotheprovisional
natureofthesupplypositionfigureswhichfollowinrespectof
1976/77»&.Bregardsbothproductionestimatesandconsumptionand
tradeestimates.
Fromthesupplyfiguresforcereals,cattlefeed,beefandveal,
milk,sugar,wine,potatoes,fruitandvegetablesitemergesthat
someproduotssonotseemtobeaffectedbythedrought(fruit,wine,
wintercereals,colea)whileothercropswillbeconsiderably reduced
(cattlefeed,hay,springcereals,maize,sugar,milkfrom1July,
potatoes,certainvegetables)}furthermore,thedeclineinthe
productionofbeefandvealin1976willbeconsiderablylessmarked
thanpreviouslyestimatedduetoearlyorevenadditionalslaughterings
promptedbythedrought*
ChangesinproductionlevelswillnecessarilyaffeotCommunitytrade
withnon-membercountries(inoreasedimportsofcereals,soya,fodder
andpotatoesandreducedwheatandsugarexports).
FrominformationatpresentavailabletotheCommissionthereisno
reasontoexpectasupplycrisisontheworldmarketforanyofthe
abovementioned produots.Inthecircumstances theCommissionbelieves
thattherewillbenodifficulty,duetothedrought,inproviding
suppliesatreasonablepricesofthemainbasiofoodstuffs(exoepting
potatoes)fortheCommunityoonsumer.

Cereals
innwuii'iiii'iii inn
1*Production
Theproductionofcommon "wheathasbeenlessaffectedhythedroughtthan
mightreasonablyhave"beenfeared#Sowingwentverywellintheautumn,
of1975andtheareastindercommonwheatweremainlywinterwheats.These
sufferedlessfromtheunfavourable springweatherthanthespringwheats*
Nonetheless,theaverageyieldwaslowerthaninanormalyear(Belgium,
Germany,Prance),butthiswascounterbalanced byanincreaseofabout
800000haintheareasundercommonwheat,whichresultedinaproduction
of35.5milliontons,whichwasmorethanthe1975harvest
(33*8milliontons).
Moreover,theaveragequalityofcommonwheatseemstohavebeenabove
average,withahighproteincontentandalowmoisturecontent,butwith
aloweryield(3to4/0thannormal*Theproductionofdurumwheatfell
bysome200000tonstoabout4milliontons,chieflybecauseFrenchproducers
grewlessofthevarietieswithahighyieldandvariablequalities#
Inaddition,barleyproductionshowsadropofabout2milliontonscompared
withthe1975harvestandofmorethan4milliontonscomparedwiththe1974
harvest® Thefallinproduction comparedwith1975waspartiallydueto
areductionintheareassown(-200000ha,i#e®,adropofabout800000tens
andabovealltothedrought,(springbarley)#Barleyproductionwillbe
about30milliontons#
Althoughthebarleyharvestedhad.ahighproteincontent,thequalityin
1976was,nonetheless ,belowtheaveragequalitybecauseofaconsiderable
percentageofsmallgrains,particularly inbrewer'Bbarley.
Itistoosoontoestimatethegrain-maizeproduction,butitwillcertainly
bemuchlowerthantheusualharvestsfollowingthereductionintheare&B
sown(especiallyinPrance),ageneraldropinyieldasaresultofthe
droughtand.ofprematureharvesting (ensilage)ofsomeoftheareasoriginally
intendedforgrain-maize# Communitymaizeproductionisprovisionally
estimatedat11«5to12milliontons#
Theproductionofallcerealsin197^/77maybeestimatedatabout93million
tons,thatistosay,adropofabout4%oomparedwiththepreviousyearand
14$comparedwith1974/75®

-7-
2.Utilization
Generallyspeakingtherehasteenanincreasedtrendtowardsfarmconsumption,especiallyforcommonwheat(7milliontons).Relativelytotheharvest,this
trendhasalsoemergedfor"barley(14*7milliontons),butlesssothanexpected,
as,aresultofhighprices(brewer's"barley,particularlyinDenmark)andthe
effectsofthedroughtinregionstraditionally practisingfarmconsumption
(jPrance).
Nonetheless,itappearsthatharvestingwilloccurnormallyinregionswith
surplusproduction,withnoretention "bytheproduoer:expectedharvests:
commonwheat28.6milliontons'(75/76:27*7milliontons)-barley:
15*8milliontons(75/76:17»3milliontons).
Commercialfeed-grainconsumptionwillincreaseconsiderably forallcereals
tomakeupfortheshortageofotherfodder.
-Commonwheat:5*8milliontons(75/76:4*3milliontons)
-Barley:10»5/11*5milliontons(75/76:9*8milliontons)
-Maize:19»8/l8.8milliontons(75/76:17*7milliontons).
3*Imports
Theydependpartlyonthelevelofintra-Community trade,particularlyfor
commonwheat,inviewofthepricefactor.Importrequirements ofbothfodder
andbrewer*sbarleyareconsiderable (+3milliontons),butitwillprobably
notbepossibletocoverthem(limitedworldmarket),whencetheneedtoreplace
themwithothersubstitutecerealsorfodderproducts.Importsofmaizemay
alreadybeestimatedatabout16to18milliontons(75/76:approximately
13milliontons).
4*Internalprices
Thepresentgeneralpricetrendistowardsthethresholdprice,andtheinternal
marketwillbeaffectedtoagreaterextentduringthismarketingyearby
variationsontheworldmarketwhich,fortunately,exceptinthecaseofbarley,
currentlyhasconsiderable suppliesavailable.

-8-
SUGAR
Community sugar production iscurrently expected toamount to9*°million tons
forthe1976/77marketing year (with apossible upward ordownward margin of
about 0.4million tons),i.e. ,14$less than anormal yield harvest over the
same area .Atregional level ,agood oraverage harvest canbeexpected in
Italy andIreland andabelow average harvest intheother Member States :
Netherlands andDenmark :-5to10 Federal Republic ofGermany andtheUnited
Kingdom :-10to20$,P^rance : However ,there isgreat uncertainty
concerning this estimate since ,according totheresults ofsampling currently
being carried outonbeet ,theweight ofbeet perhectare isvery low,whereas
itssugar content isextremely high .
Thus ,itisquite possible that ,inthelast analysis ,production will exceed
by3toT%thelevel stated above ,although thepossibility ofaproduction
ofbelow 9.7million tons cannot beentirely excluded ,ifclimatic conditions
arevery unfavourable .
Sugar consumption for197^/77iscurrently estimated at$,6million tons .This
ismore orless equivalent tothemaximum permissible Community production within
thequota .Inaddition tothis production there will beimports of1.3million
tons ofsugar from theACPcountries and0.12 million tons ofsugar from non-
member countries intheform ofprocessed products .
Thus ,Community supplies exceed consumption by1.42 million tons .Ofthis
surplus 0,4 "to0.5million tons will beused toincrease stocks inaccordance
with theCommunity regulations concerning minimum stocks ,andthebalance of
about 1.0million tons will beexported either asunprocessed sugar oras
processed products .Asfarastheprices ontheCommunity market areconcerned ,
levels vary according totheregions concerned ,butremain within therange
between theintervention price andthethreshold price .This price situation
isnotlikely tochange inview ofthestate ofsupply intheCommunity andthe
abundant supplies available ontheworld market ,where prices areconsequently
25to30folower than theprices applicable intheCommunity .

-9-
FEEDINGSTUFFS
A.Oil-cakes
FormalCommunityoil-cakeconsumption maybeestimatedat14milliontons
peryear,ofwhichabout600000tonsareofCommunityoriginandarefor
themostpartproducedfromcolzaseed,forwhichthe1976harvest
wasbarelyaffectedbythedrought.Thisharvestwasindeed
estimatedat950000to970000tons,asagainst900000tonsin1975-
Forsunflowerseeds,however,whichofcoursehavenotyetbeenharvested,
thereislikelytobeadropinproduction owingtoapooryield.
Productionshouldtotal115000to135000tons,asagainstI65000tonsin
1975.
SincetheCommunity'soil-cakeproductioncoversonly4"to%ofits
requirements ,Communitysuppliesarelargelygovernedbythepossibility
ofimportingoil-cakes,eitherassuchorintheformofBeed.During
thefirstsixmonthsof1976,Communityimportsofoilseedsandoil-cakes
increasedby25to30%.
InviewofthefactthatthedroughtinEuropehasgreatlyreducedthe
plantingofcatch-crops whichprovidecertaincoarsefeedingstuffs for
winteruse,itispossiblethattherewillbeacomparableincreasein
thedemandforoil-cakesinthenextfewmonths.Ontheassumptionthat
therewillbeanincreaseintheuseofoil-cakesduringthe1976/77
marketingyear,andthattherewillalsobeaslightdecreaseincattle
herdsfollowingslaughterings ^theimportrequirementsfor1976/77could
beasfollows:9milliontonsofsoyabeans,2milliontonsofother
oilseeds,4milliontonsofsoyacakeand4milliontonsofotheroil-cakes *
Onthebasisofcertaininformation nowavailable,thereislikelytobe
ariseinprices.ThelastestimatebytheU5DA,madeon13August1976,
setthesoyabeanproductionfor1976at36.6milliontons,i.e.,12$>
lessthanlastyear.UnitedStatesstocksatthebeginningofthenext
marketingyearare,however,expectedtobequitelarge(about5*5million
tons).
InviewoftheweatherintheUnitedStates,thisfiguremaybereduced.
BrazilhasonlyBmallquantitiesofsoyacakeavailableforsaleand
export.

-10-
B.Otherfeed.ingstu.ffs
TheCommunityproductionofdehydratedfodderwasseverelyaffected "by
thedrought.InPrance,themainproducercountry,thedropin
productionoouldhe40$.Itistohefearedthattheshortfallcannot
"bemadeup"byimporting.Importsofsubstituteproductscould,however,
heincreased.Inthe1976/77marketingyear,importsofhranandother
cerealmiddlingscouldhe2milliontons,importsofmaize-gluten feed
couldhe0.6milliontonsandimportsofmaniocproduotsandotherroots
couldhe2.5milliontons.
*
Importsofcertainotherproducts,suchascitrusfruitpulp,although
oflesserimportance,couldincreaseslightly.
TheCommunitysupplyprospeotsBeemthereforetodependmainlyonth«
possibilityofimportingoil-cakes,particularly soyacake.

BEEPAHDVEAL
Forcattlefarmersthedroughthashadacriticaleffectonthe
profitability ofbeefandvealproduction ;itwillalsoaccelerate
therunningdownofproductionpotential.
Cattlenumbers,whichhadalreadyfalleninDecember1975(-2.3overall,-1.8forcowsand-forcalves),willbedownfurtherin
December1976becauseoftheabovenormalnumberofslaughterings expected
especiallyofcows,incertainregionsoftheCommunity.Thedropin
beefandvealproductionin1976willbeonlyabouthalfofthe€$>
originallyforecast.However,althoughmoreanimalswillbeslaughtered ,
theaveragecarcaseweightwillprobablyfallinthesecondhalfof1976.
Productionwillfallevenmorein1977(byatleast6%comparedwith
1976).Theriseinbeefandvealconsumptioninboththeseyearswill
beextremelymoderatebecauseofthecontinuingeconomicdifficulties in
theCommunity,especiallyinItalyandtheUnitedKingdom.
Asregardsfarmers'incomes,becauseoftheshortageofroughage,
especiallyinmeat-producinggrasslandregions,thepriceoffeedhas,
increasedconsiderably (effectupstreamofproduction)whileontheother
hand(downstreamofproduction)thesellingpriceofbeefcattleis
alreadyrelatively low.
Theamountofmeateligibleforprivatestorageaidwhichhasbeenbought
inorwithdrawnfromthemarketisclosetothetechnicallypossible
maximum.Theamountofbeefandveal,stillinstoreattheendof1976
willprobablybeslightlyhi^ierthantheimpressivefinalfigurereached
in1975»Suppliesofbeefandvealarethereforeassuredfor1976with
somethingtospare,butinthemedium-termtheywillbemoredifficult
toobtainbecauseofthelikelydropinCommunityproductionandin
spiteofthereabsorption ofcurrentstocksin1977-Asregardstrade,
theincreasedimportsofmeatfromnon-membercountriesin1977and1978
willprobablybemoreexpensivebecauseofthelikelyimbalancebetween
supplyanddemandontheworldmarketfrom1977onwards.

-12-
MIIjKANDMILKPRODUCTS
Inthefirstsixmonthsof1976»deliveriesofmilktodairieswere
higherthaninthecorresponding periodof1975*Deliveries "between
1Julyand30Septemberwill"be3&to4$lowerthaninthecorresponding
periodof1975»whilethedropforthelastquarterwillprobahlylie
between2andyfo.
Deliveriesofmilkinthecalendaryear1976willprobablybe1-gfrupon
1975*Tk®14$increaseinbutterproductioninthefirsthalfof1976
willbedownbyabout8$comparedwith1975inthesecondhalfof1976,
givingatotalincreaseinbutterproductionofabout3.5$for1976.
Thecorresponding figuresforskimmedmilkpowderare+17%r-12$tand
+4.59S.Theconsiderablefallinthesecondhalfof1976iscausedmainly
bythesituationinFrance,BelgiumandLuxembourg.FallsofBhorter
durationtookplaceinJulyendAugustinDenmark,Germanyandthe
KetherlandB.Bearingtheaboveinmind,stocksofskimmedmilkpowder
willprobablytotal1.25milliontonsattheendof1976withafigure
ofbetween275000and300000tonsforbutter.
Duringthe1976/77milkyear(lAprilto31March)andinaccordancewith
theforeoastmadeduringthedrought,theimpactwillcontinueafter
1Aprilofnextyear;deliveriesarelikelytofallby0.5to1%by
comparisonwiththe1975/76milkyearinspiteoftheconsiderableinoreast
inthefirstquarterofthepresentmilkyear.Productionofbutterwill
probablyfallTfy1*5to2$andproductionofskimmedmilkpowderby
2.5to3
Thehigitemperatures inthesummermonthsappeartohavehadapositive
effectontheconsumptionofliquidmilkandotherfreshmilkproduot9,
probablyintheregionof0*5to1%.Asaresultof.theheatwavethe
dropinbutterconsumption fparticularly intheUnitedKingdom,appears
tohavebeengreaterthanwasforeoast.

-13-
FRUITANDVEGETABLES
ThedroughtshouldnotaffecttheCommunity'sfruitsupply.Ifappleharvestforecastsshowanappreciabledropcomparedto1975/76
production(6milliontonscomparedwith7»3million),thisisa
normalfactorofthealternatebearingoffruitcrops,the1975/76
harvesthavingbeenaparticularlyplentifulone.Thedropinthepearharvestisminimalsince1976/77productionisestimatedat
2.34milliontonsasagainst2.40millionin1975/76.
Thesituationforvegetablesislessclearsincerapidcrop
rotationandthepossibilityofglasshouseproduction,aswellas
thefactthatcertainwintercropscannotyetbeharvested,meanthat
thissectorisconstantlychangingandthatitispractically
impossibletomakeanassessmentforthewholeoftheCommunity.
However,itcanalreadybesaidthatthedroughthascaused
irreparable damagetopeaandbeancrops,wheretheharvestin
theaffectedareasisonly20$to85$ofnormal.
Inrespectofproductsstillawaitingharvesting(cauliflowers and
otherlatecabbages,onionsandcanningcarrots,rootvegetables)
plantingandgrowthtookplaceinmanyareasunderunfavourable
conditionsandadropinproductionintheorderof20to30$,or
sometimesmore,isforecast.Howtheyfarefromnowonwill
certainlydependontheweather.Certainotherquick-turnover crops
suchaslettucesandwitloofchicory,whichsufferedfromthedrought
duringthesummer,havebeenre-sownandnormalharvestsareexpected
soon.
WithregardtothemeasurestakenbytheCommunitytosuspendcustoms
dutiesonacertainnumberoffreshorrefrigerated vegetables,it
isatpresentdifficulttoassesstheextenttowhichthesewill
benefitCommunitysupplies.

-14-
Thepotatosector
AccordingtocurrentlyavailableestimatestheCommunity *s1976
potatoharvestwillbeabout30milliontons.Thisfigurerepresents
adropof10$comparedtothe1975harvest,whichwas33milliontons.
Anormalharvestisabout40milliontons,thelevelreachedin1973
and1974*
TheMemberStatesworstaffectedbythedroughtinthissectorare
theFederalRepublicofGermany(normalharvest:14milliontons,
1975harvest*11milliontons,1976harvestestimatedat5milliontons)
andtheUnitedKingdom(normalharvest:7milliontons,1975harvest:
4.5milliontons,1976harvestestimatedat5*5millibntons).
The1976harvest,althoughdownontheprecedingone,will,however,
probablynotresultinpricelevelBashighasthoseexperiencedat
thebeginningof1976.Amorerationalutilizationoftheharvest
maybeexpected,reservinglesstonnageforfodderandthestarch
industry;theabovenormalpriceswillcontinuetoencourageadrop
inhumanconsumption andlastyear*sexperienceofimportingpotatoes
fromcountriesingreaterorlesserproximitywillfacilitateimports
duringthecomingautumnandwinter.
Onthislastpoint,itshouldbenotedthatPolandhashadanormal
harvestthisyear(46milliontons)andthatthereisatrendin
theanimalfeedsector,inviewofcomparativepricelevels,to
changefrompotatoestootherfeedingstuffs5Sweden*sharvestisdouble
thatoflastyear(SwedenrecentlyexportedtotheCommunity 1000tons
ofpotatoesfromtheirnewcrop);theharvestintheUnitedStates
andinCanadaisgoodandtheareaunderpotatoesis4$morethan
lastyear.
Tosumupitcanbesaidthatevenifthe1976potatoharvestis
probably10$belowthe1975level,itisestimatedthatreduoed
consumption,morerationalutilizationofstocksandeasierimports
willresultinmoremoderatepricelevels*