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Finland is currently in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact. In the 2015 Stability Programme submitted by the outgoing government, which is based on a no-policy-change assumption and covers the period 2014-2019, the headline deficit, which was increased to 3,2 % of GDP in 2014 and thereby exceeded the reference value of 3 % of GDP, is projected to further deteriorate to 3,4 % of GDP in 2015, before gradually declining to 3,1 % in 2017 and further to 2,5 % of GDP in 2019. According to the 2015 Stability Programme, the Government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase over the programme's forecast horizon and to reach 67,8 % by 2019. The medium-term objective — a structural deficit of 0,5 % of GDP — is not reached by the end of the programme period. The macroeconomic scenario underpinning these budgetary projections is plausible. Based on the Commission's 2015 spring forecast, Finland's general government deficit is forecast at 3,3 % of GDP in 2015 and 3,2 % of GDP in 2016, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to increase to 64,4 % of GDP by 2016. The Commission published on 13 May 2015 a report in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty concluding that deficit and debt criteria were not considered to be complied with. However, on 27 May the incoming government published its Strategic Programme, including planned consolidation measures. According to an assessment by the Commission, if fully implemented, these measures are expected to reduce the headline deficit to well below 3 % of GDP in 2016. After a deterioration in 2014, there is another deviation from the required structural effort under the preventive arm in 2015. The expenditure benchmark is expected to be met by a wide margin in 2015. There may thus be a risk of a significant deviation from the required adjustment towards the MTO over 2014-2015, which will need to be reassessed ex post. In 2016, taking into account the measures announced by the incoming government there is a risk of some deviation. Therefore, further measures will be needed to reach the required structural adjustments. Based on its assessment of the Stability Programme and taking into account the Commission's 2015 spring forecast, as well as an assessment of the incoming government's consolidation measures as presented on 27 May, the Council is of the opinion that there is a risk that Finland will not comply with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact. Although Finland has made some progress in implementing administrative reforms, the efficiency of the Finnish public sector could be improved further, particularly in areas that face cost pressures in the future from ageing. Social partners reached agreement on the content of the pension reform in autumn 2014, but this has yet to be adopted. Increasing the participation of older workers in the labour force is crucial in view of the fiscal sustainability gap and the planned increase of the statutory retirement age. Early exits from the labour market are mainly due to disability or on the basis of extended unemployment benefits for older workers. The Government's bill on the reform of social and healthcare services was presented to Parliament in December 2014, but no solution was found to balance the administrative model of large municipal coalitions with the autonomy of single municipalities guaranteed by the Constitution before the parliamentary elections in April 2015, and the bill lapsed. Finnish municipalities are relatively small but carry out quite extensive tasks as compared with those in other European countries. The reform of municipal structures is proceeding with some delay and the municipalities are conducting studies on the benefits of mergers. According to the 2015 National Reform Programme, a new legislative proposal may be submitted to Parliament by the end of 2016.