No C 5/2 Official Journal of the European Communities 7.1. 78 
REVISION OF THE COMMUNITY COAL MARKET FORECASTS FOR 1977 
This is a revision of those parts of 'The Community coal market in 1976 and forecasts 
for 1977' (*), compiled at the beginning of the current year, in regard to which sub­
sequent developments have diverged from the original forecasts. 
The numbering of the text and tables repeats that of the original document. The text 
is devoted primarily to drawing conclusions for the whole of the current year on the 
basis of performance during the first six months and attempts to provide explanations 
where performance is likely to diverge substantially from the original forecasts. The 
tables give figures for the first six months of the current year and, for the purposes of 
comparison, for the same periods in 1975 and 1976. 
II. GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION AND 
OUTLOOK 
The pace of the Community's economic revival 
during the past nearly two years has been alternately 
quickening and slackening — predominantly the 
latter so far in 1977. 
Sharp sectoral and geographical differences in the 
development of demand, supply and earnings persist, 
and the constraints imposed by inflationary trends 
•and external disequilibrium have not permitted free 
rein to be given to the cumulative acceleration of 
earlier recoveries. However, the economic climate is 
likely to improve further during the second half of 
1977 as a result of a faster rise in exports and, in some 
countries, in private consumption. The grbss 
domestic product for the Community as a whole will 
not obtain more than about 2-5 % in real terms in 
1977. 
Progress towards a return to full employment has 
been disappointing. The flow of funds into 
employment-creating investment has remained weak, 
any rise in demand for labour having in the main 
been met by longer hours rather than by adding to 
the labour force. Furthermore, the number of young 
people seeking work for the first time has been larger 
than in 1976. The seasonally adjusted rate of 
unemployment reached 5-6 % in the third quarter of 
1977 for the Community as a whole, compared with 
5-1 % the previous year. 
Although pressure of demand on world resources has 
been only moderate, price rises sharpened until the 
spring. This was due partly to tight supplies of 
agricultural produce resulting from drought in the 
H OJ No C 156, 4. 7. 1977, p. 1. Community in 1976, combined with climatic events 
elsewhere which affected the prices of some tropical 
products, while rises in the tariffs of public services 
and in the cost of oil all played their part. 
Considering the level for the consumer prices in the 
Community more favourable tendencies that were 
beginning to show towards the summer should rise 
by about 9-5 % between 1976 and 1977. 
There have been improvements in the external 
position of the Community. Rates of exchange have 
become stabilized during the first half year and curbs 
on imports by the deficit countries have largely 
redressed the trade balance of the Community. This 
evolution, to which North Sea oil is making a growing 
contribution should lead to a reduction in the deficit 
of some $ 8 000 million in the Community's balance 
of payments on current account in 1976. 
III. COAL DEMAND BY SECTORS 
1. Steel industry 
(Tables 4 and 22) 
The warning in the original forecasts for 1977 that 
the steel production figures, on which estimates of 
coke consumption were based, may have to be 
revised downwards has meanwhile proved justified. 
Instead of the slight increase over 1976 initially 
hoped for, it has now become apparent that steel 
production in 1977 will be some six million tonnes 
below last year's level, with the result that pig iron 
production at about 89 million tonnes in 1977 will be 
close on 5-5 million tonnes lower that last year. 
7.1. 78 Official Journal of the European Communities No C 5/3 
In line with the foregoing, it now appears likely that 
coke consumption by the Community's iron and steel 
industry in 1977 will be about 52 million tonnes, 
representing some 67 mtce of coal, about 8 mtce 
below the original forecast. 
2. Power stations 
(Table 8 A) 
Electricity production varied during the first half of 
the current year over the same period in 1976 in all 
Community countries but at very different rates, 
ranging from — 11-1 % in Luxembourg to + 19-8 % 
in Denmark, an average of about + 3-5 % for the 
Community. 
Predictions for the whole year are that the rise in 
electricity consumption over 1976 will generally be 
lower than the year before but it must be borne in 
mind that 1975 had been a year of exceptionally 
depressed demand. The increase for the Community 
as a whole for 1977 over 1976 is expected to be of 
the order of 6 %. 
In 1976, the combination of vigorous expansion in 
electricity consumption with drought conditions 
reducing hydro-electric generation, high fuel oil 
prices and various official measures to reduce 
demand for oil brought an increase in power station 
coal-burn over 1975 of some 20 % to over 120 mtce. 
Coal consumption for electricity generation is likely 
to register further substantial increases in France and 
Belgium and smaller rises elsewhere. As a result, total 
consumption of power stations coal for the 
Community as a whole in 1977 is expected to show 
the predicted slight increase. 
IV. COMMUNITY COAL PRODUCTION 
(Tables 11, 13 and 14) 
Total Community coal production of 123 million 
tonnes (t — t) during the first six months of 1977 
was slightly under half the total of 248 million tonnes 
(t = t) forecast for the whole year. 
However, due to the summer holidays in July and 
August, output during the second half of the year is 
traditionally lower than during the first six months. In 
the case of Germany, this will have been partly offset 
by deliberate short-time working early in the year, 
but in line with recent experience, output during the 
second half of 1977 can be expected to be lower by 
around 15 % in Belgium, 20 % in France and 8 % in the UK than during the first half of the year. On 
these assumptions, total production in 1977 is likely 
to be around 237 million tonnes (t = t), a drop of 
4-5 % from the 1976 level. 
By far the most disappointing performance is that of 
the UK where it now appears improbable that output 
will exceed 119 million tonnes (t = t) compared with 
122 million tonnes in 1976 and to 125 million tonnes 
originally forecast for 1977. The principal reason is 
that contrary to earlier hopes, it has not so far been 
possible to introduce an effective productivity 
scheme, nor does in seem likely that something of 
this nature can be put into effect before the end of 
the year. Furthermore, the retirement of some 6 500 
underground workers aged 62 and over in 
accordance with new pension rules which came into 
effect on 1 August 1977 is adversely affecting 
production during the second half of the year. 
V. COAL PRICES 
In Germany, list prices have remained at their level of 
the beginning of January 1977, and elsewhere their 
increases were less than last year. Both steam and 
coking coal prices rose by 6 to 7 % in France and by 
15 % in the UK, while domestic coal prices were 
increased by 6 % in the former and 29 % in the 
latter. 
The average cif ARA price for coking coal calculated 
by the Commission (indicative price), which had 
stood at $ 63-45 since July 1976, had eased to 
$ 61-75 in April 1977 but had risen again to $ 62-35 
by July 1977. 
Leaving aside UK domestic coal, which is in short 
supply, a picture of a fair degree of stability emerges. 
However, this is misleading in that the pressure of 
rising costs on the one hand and, on the other, the 
continuing easy supply position in the world market 
are creating disposal problems for the Community 
coal industries for which solutions must be found if 
they are not to be forced into resuming their 
pre-1973 process of deliberate contraction. 
VII (2) Imports from third countries 
(Table 26 A) 
As coal imports are much more immediately 
influenced by market fluctuations than is coal output, 
no historically-based conclusions for performance 
during the whole year can be drawn from import 
figures for the first six months as is possible for 
production. 
No C 5/4 Official Journal of the European Communities 7.1. 78 
The Member States' current forecasts of 
third-country imports for the year are in most 
instances slightly below original estimates, with the 
notable exception of Italy. Considering that Italy 
imported 10 million tonnes in 1976, compared to an 
original forecast of 9-5 million tonnes, and is 
pursuing a policy of increased coal-burn in power 
stations, a further 10 % increase in third-country 
imports is possible provided coal consumption for 
electricity generation is about double that of last 
year. 
On this assumption, total third-country imports into, 
the Community would be between 45 and 46 million 
tonnes as originally forecast, though somewhat 
differently distributed between the member countries, 
but the possibility of a slightly lower figure cannot be 
excluded. 
VIII. COAL AND COKE STOCKS 
Forecasts of producers' stocks are hazardous as they 
depend only to a certain extent on expectations of 
production, imports, consumption and exports. They 
are likewise influenced by the build-up or run-down 
of stocks by consumers guided by their judgment of 
political and market factors. Furthermore, the 
cumulative results of minor statistical adjustments 
can significantly affect residual stock calculations. 
Accordingly, predictions of producers' stocks can be 
no more than indicative. Subject to this proviso, it 
now appears that a combination of diverse factors 
will cause the coal stock position at the end of 1977 
to show considerable differences from that initially 
projected. 
The most significant of these factors are substantially 
lower production than forecast in the UK and 
Germany: six million tonnes (t = t) in the former 
and five million tonnes in the latter, totalling 11 
million tonnes. With third-country imports at about 
the expected level or slightly lower, available supplies 
will thus be about 11 to 12 million tonnes below the 
original figure. 
Coal consumption and exports are likely to be 
approximately as predicted, except that coke ovens 
will be producing five million tonnes less coke than 
forecast. As a result, their coal consumption will be 
about 6-5 million tonnes lower than projected. With coal supplies 11 to 12 million tonnes below the 
original forecast and consumption some 6-5 million 
tonnes less, it can be inferred that producers' stocks 
at the end of the year will be 4-5 to 5-5 million 
tonnes lower than expected. Instead of the originally 
forecast rise of some 2-5 million tonnes, a net 
run-down of producers' stocks of two to three 
million tonnes in the course of 1977 results from this 
calculation. 
The provisional figures in the original document 
showed coal stocks at the end of last year at 27-9 
million tonnes, but this figure has since been revised 
downwards to about 27 million tonnes. According to 
the above calculations, producers' stocks at the end 
of 1977 should, therefore, stand at 24 to 25 million 
tonnes. 
However, they may, in fact, be slightly lower. 
Inherent uncertainties apart, the explanation for the 
difference is likely to lie in increased purchases of 
coal for stock by Belgian and German electricity 
producers. 
The need to carry slightly smaller coal stocks than 
originally predicted provides some modest relief for 
the Community's coal industries. However, the fact 
that this is due to a considerable extent to short-time 
working in Germany and falling productivity in the 
UK must be a cause for profound concern. 
Furthermore, there is the problem of coke stocks 
which weighs heavily on the German coal industry. 
Indeed, their end of year stocks are likely to have 
risen by slightly more than the two million tonnes 
originally predicted although, after allowing for a 
run-down in UK stocks, the total increase in the 
Community as a whole is likely to be of the order of 
1-5 million tonnes to about 20 million tonnes of 
which 15 million tonnes in Germany. As a 
consequence, Ruhrkohle has decided on the closure 
of two additional cokeries with an annual capacity of 
1-6 million tonnes before the end of this year. 
CONCLUSION 
Except as regards coke and coking coal for the steel 
industry, the developments in the Community's coal^ 
market during the year 1977 have been broadly along 
the lines predicted. 
7.1. 78 Official Journal of the European Communities No C 5/5 
TABLE 2 
Gross domestic product in terms of volume (*) 
(% variation compared with the previous year) 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Community 1975 
— 2-0 
— 1-1 
— 2-6 
+ 0-1 
+ 0-4 
— 3-5 
— 8-4 
— 1-1 
— 1-7 
— 1-8 1976 
+ 3-0 
+ 4-8 
+ 5-7 
+ 5-2 
+ 3-2 
+ 5-6 
+ 2-7 
+ 4-4 
+ 1-6 
+ 4-6 1977 
(original 
forecast) 
+ 3-0 
+ 2-0 
+ 5-0 
+ 3-0 
+ 3-5 
+ 2-0 
+ 3-0 
+ 4-0 
+ 1-5 
+ 3-5 1977 
(revised 
forecast) 
+ 2-7 
+ 1-0 
+ 3-0 
+ 2-7 
+ 4-5 
+ 2-0 
+ 1-3 
+ 2-5 
+ 0-4 
+ 2-3 
Source: COM (77) 494/2, 7. 10. 1977. 
TABLE 4 
Crude steel production 
(in 1 000 tonnes) 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Community l 
First half 
1976 
6185 
358 
21373 
11639 
16 
11 371 
2 393 
2 475 
11 508 
67 318 2 
First half 
• 1977 
5 901 
373 
19 813 
11 716 
21 
11868 
2 214 
2409 
10 546 
64 861 Difference (2 — 1) 
tonnes 
— 284 
+ 15 
— 1 560 
+ 77 
+ 5 
+ 497 
— 179 
— 66 
— 962 
— 2 457 % 
— 4-6 
+ 4-2 
— 7-3 
+ 0-7 
+ 31-3 
+ 4-4 
— 7-5 
— 2-7 
— 8-4 
— 3-6 
No C 5/6 Official Journal of the European Communities 7.1. 78 
TABLE 8 A 
Net electricity production 
(in GWh) 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Community l 
First half 
1976 
22 738 
9181 
157 136 
97 650 
4 056 
77 428 
679 
27 738 
134 459 
530 666 2 
First half 
1977 
22 685 
10 996 
158 602 
104 300 
4 448 
80 268 
604 
27 886 
139524 
549 313 3 
Previous 
forecast 
1977 
46 800 
20 600 
331300 
208 600 
8 300 
165 700 
1900 
58 200 
266 000 
1107 400 % 
(2-1) 
— 0-2 
+ 19-8 
+ 0-9 
+ 6-8 
+ 9-7 
+ 3-7 
— 11-1 
+ 2-0 
+ 3-8 
+ 3-5 
TABLE 11 
Hard coal production 
(in 1 000 tonnes) 
Belgium 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Ireland 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Community l 
First half 
1975 
3 978 
50 856 
47 435 (^ 
12 370 
25 
66 679 
133 908 
130 487 (^ 2 
First half 
1976 
3 959 
47 390 
44 049 (!) 
11520 
27 
63 346 
126 242 
122 901 (^ 3 
First half 
1977 
3 881 
45 398 
41 952 (^ 
11840 
27 
61863 
123 009 
119 563 O 4 
Original 
forecast 
1977 
7 250 
94 980 
87 800 (^ 
20 800 
50 
125 000 
248 080 
240 900 (!) Difference 
2—1 
tonnes 
— 19 
— 3 466 
— 3 386 0) 
— 850 
+ 2 
— 3 333 
— 7 666 
— 7586 0) % 
— 0-5 
— 6-8 
-7-K1) 
— 6-9 
+ 8-0 
— 5-0 
— 5-7 
-5-8 0) Difference 
3 — 2 
tonnes 
— 78 
— 1992 
— 2 097C) 
+ 320 
— 1483 
— 3 233 
— 3 338 0) % 
— 2j0 
— 4-2 
— 4-8 0) 
+ 2-8 
— 2-3 
— 2-6 
— 2-7(i) 
(') National series. 
7.1. 78 Official Journal of the European Communities No C 5/7 
TABLES 13 and 14 
Number of miners working below ground and output per underground manshift 
Number of miners (in 1 000's) 
Belgium 
Germany (FR) 
France 
United Kingdom 
Output (in kg) 
Belgium 
Germany (FR) 
France 
United Kingdom 1 
End June 
1975 
18-6 
110-3 
39-8 
173-2 
2 493 
4084 
2 635 
3 310 2 
End June 
1976 
17-7 
105-8 
38-0 
169-8 
2536 
4 219 
2 687 
3 358 3 
End June 
1977 
16-5 
102-8 
35-0 
171-5 
2 650 
4 202 
2 970 
3 288 4 
Forecasted 
average 
1977 
16-6 
102-5 
35-5 
166-5 
2 665 
4 230 
3 100 
3 565 Difference in % 
2—1 
— 4-8 
— 4-1 
— 4-5 
— 2-0 
+ 1-7 
+ 3-3 
+ 2-0 
+ 1-5 3 — 2 
— 6-7 
— 2-8 
— 69 
+ 1-0 
+ 4-5 
— 0-4 
+ 10-5 
— 2-1 
TABLE 22 
Coke-oven coke 
(in 1 000 tonnes) 
Belgium 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Italy 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Gommunity 1 
First half 
1976 
3 127 
16 287 
5 831 
3 865 
1324 
7 889 
38 323 2 
First half 
1977 
2 908 
14120 
5 312 
3 984 
1299 
7 407 
35 030 3 
Original 
forecast 
1977 
6 350 
30 600 
11 000 
8 500 
2 750 
16 000 
75 200 Difference (2 — 1) 
tonnes 
— 219 
— 2 167 
— 519 
+ 119 
— 25 
— 482 
— 3 293 % 
— 7-0 
— 13-3 
— 8-9 
+ 3-1 
— 1-9 
— 6-1 
— 8-6 
No C 5/8 Official Journal of the European Communities 7.1. 78 
TABLE 26 
Imports of coal from third countries by country of destination 
(in 1 000 tonnes) 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Community First half 
1975 
1554 
1868 
2 854 
5 866 
199 
5 031 
23 
1579 
2 599 
21573 First half 
1976 
1879 
1824 
2 389 
5 799 
209 
4 826 
52 
1825 
1498 
20301 First half 
1977 
1634 
2 313 
2 685 
7 985 (*) 
345 (*) 
5 750 C1) 
76 
1938 
530 (*) 
23 256 Original 
forecast 
1977 
3 120 
4 350 
5 200 
16 590 
395 
10100 
17 
3 595 
2300 
45 667 
(') Estimates. 
TABLE 28 
Changes in producers' stocks of coal and blast-furnace coke (*) during the first six months 
of 1977 
(in 1 000 tonnes) 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Germany (FR) 
France 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
United Kingdom 
Community Coal 
+ 218 
_ 
+ 4127 
+ 742 
— 
— 
— 
— 
— 1411 
+ 3 676 Coke 
+ 6 
— 
+ 1 774 
+ 10 
+ 279 
— 
— 
— 4 
+ 368 
+ 2 433 Total 
+ 226 
— 
+ 6 433 
+ 755 
+ 363 
— 
— 
— 5 
— 933 
+ 6 839 
(l) In the total column, coke stocks have been converted to coal equivalent at 1-3.