++++

REVISED FORECASTS FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR THE COMMUNITY COAL MARKET IN 1982

CONTENTS

I . SUMMARY

III . DEMAND FOR COAL BY SECTOR

1 . STEEL INDUSTRY

2 . POWER STATIONS

3 . OTHER INDUSTRIES

4 . DOMESTIC SECTOR

IV . COMMUNITY COAL PRODUCTION

1 . PRODUCTION STATISTICS

3 . DEVELOPMENTS IN PRODUCTION CAPACITY

V . COAL PRICES

1 . DEVELOPMENT OF LISTED PRICES OF COMMUNITY COALS

2 . TRENDS IN THE PRICE OF IMPORTED COAL

( A ) COKING COAL

( B ) STEAM COAL

( C ) COMPARISON OF THE TREND IN THE PRICES OF IMPORTED COKING AND STEAM COAL

VI . COKE

2 . COKE PRODUCTION AND COAL SUPPLIES

VII . TRADE IN COAL AND COKE

1 . INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE

2 . TRADE WITH THIRD COUNTRIES

( A ) IMPORTS

VIII . STOCKS OF COAL AND COKE

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 19 A : LISTED PRE-TAX PITHEAD PRICES FOR COMMUNITY COAL AS AT 1 JULY 1981 , 15 JANUARY 1982 AND 1 JULY 1982 ( IN NATIONAL CURRENCY )

TABLE 19 B : LISTED PRE-TAX PITHEAD PRICES FOR COMMUNITY COAL AS AT 1 JULY 1981 , 15 JANUARY 1982 AND 1 JULY 1982 ( IN US DOLLARS )

TABLE 31 : HARD COAL BALANCE 1982 ( REVISED ) ( AVAILABILITIES AND DELIVERIES )

TABLE 32 : INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE IN COAL IN 1982

TABLE 33 : COKE BALANCE SHEET FOR 1982 ( REVISED ) ( AVAILABILITIES AND DELIVERIES )

TABLE 34 : INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE IN COKE IN 1982

TABLE 36 : COAL BALANCE SHEET FOR 1981 ( AVAILABILITIES AND CONSUMPTION - PROVISIONAL FIGURES FROM EUROSTAT )

TABLE 37 : COKE BALANCE SHEET FOR 1981 ( AVAILABILITIES AND CONSUMPTION - PROVISIONAL FIGURES FROM EUROSTAT )

THIS DOCUMENT FOLLOWS ON THE REPORT ON THE COMMUNITY MARKET IN 1981 AND THE OUTLOOK FOR 1982 , PUBLISHED EARLY THIS YEAR ( 1 ) .

THE PRESENT DOCUMENT REVISES NOT ONLY THE FORECASTS MADE IN THE PUBLISHED REPORT , IN RESPECT OF THE ACTUAL SITUATION OBSERVED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 1982 ; IT MAINTAINS THE NUMBERING USED IN THE EARLIER DOCUMENT FOR THE CHAPTERS , SECTIONS AND TABLES ( 2 ) . THE NUMBER OF TABLES HAS BEEN REDUCED TO SHORTEN THE REVISED DOCUMENT . THE BALANCE SHEETS FORECAST FOR 1982 IN RESPECT OF AVAILABILITIES AND DELIVERIES OF COAL AND COKE AND EXPECTATIONS IN RESPECT OF INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE FOR 1982 ARE PUBLISHED IN THE USUAL FORM WITH THE REVISED FIGURES , SO GIVING A SUMMARY VIEW OF THE SITUATION EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF 1982 . FOR THE FIRST TIME , THERE HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR PURPOSES OF COMPARISON BALANCE SHEETS ON THE AVAILABILITIES AND CONSUMPTION FOR 1981 , USING THE PROVISIONAL FIGURES PROVIDED BY THE STATISTICAL OFFICE AND PRESENTED ON THE SAME PATTERN AS THE BALANCE SHEETS FORECAST FOR 1982 .

( 1 ) OJ NO C 131 , 24 . 5 . 1982 .

( 2 ) THE LATEST ESTIMATES CONCERNING THE TRENDS OF THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN 1982 CAN BE FOUND IN THE YEARLY ECONOMIC REPORT 1982 TO 1983 - ( DOC . COM(82 ) 677 FINAL ) .

I . SUMMARY

THE ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COMMUNITY FOR THE WHOLE OF THE YEAR 1982 COULD LIE ROUND 930 MILLION TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT , I.E . 0,5 % BELOW THE 1981 LEVEL . COAL CONSUMPTION ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY THE RECESSION WHICH IS PARTICULARLY MARKED IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY .

IN 1982 , DELIVERIES OF COAL COULD BE 2,7 % ABOVE THE 1981 FIGURES WHILST AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE A FURTHER RISE IN STOCKS - WHICH ARE ALREADY CONSIDERED TO BE TOO HIGH IN A NUMBER OF CASES .

AT THE FIGURE OF 244 MILLION TONNES , COMMUNITY COAL PRODUCTION WOULD BE VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT OF 1981 ( 0,7 % ) ; DELIVERIES IN INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE WILL FALL OFF MORE MARKEDLY THAN THE IMPORTS FROM THIRD COUNTRIES . IN THIS LATTER SECTOR , 1982 WAS MARKED BY THE RETURN OF POLAND IN THE WORLD MARKET MORE QUICKLY AND TO A MORE MARKED EXTENT THEN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR ; IN ADDITION , SEVERAL MISSIONS INFORMED INTERESTED CIRCLES IN THE COMMUNITY OF THE POSSIBILITY OF OBTAINING SUPPLIES OF COAL FROM THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA .

WORLD COAL PRICES SHOWED A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO FALL , THIS BEING PARTLY CONCEALED FOR THE COMMUNITY COUNTRIES BY THE APPRECIATION OF THE DOLLAR ON THE CURRENCY MARKET .

III . DEMAND FOR COAL BY SECTOR

( DELIVERIES TO THE DIFFERENT SECTORS )

1 . STEEL INDUSTRY

SINCE THE SYSTEM OF PRODUCTION QUOTAS WAS INTRODUCED IN AUTUMN 1980 THERE HAS BEEN NO RECOVERY IN THE DEMAND FOR STEEL . A NEW WEAKENING OF DEMAND HAS , IN FACT , BEEN NOTICED SINCE THE SECOND QUARTER OF 1982 BOTH FOR THE COMMUNITY MARKET AND FOR THE DIFFERENT EXPORT MARKETS . STEEL PRODUCTION FOR THE WHOLE OF 1982 WILL PROBABLY BE NEARER 114 MILLION TONNES THAN THE 123 MILLION TONNES FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR . THIS WOULD IN TURN LEAD TO A COKE CONSUMPTION FIGURE IN THIS SECTOR NEARER 47 MILLION TONNES THAN THE 51 MILLION TONNES ORIGINALLY EXPECTED .

2 . POWER STATIONS

THE NEW ESTIMATES FOR DELIVERIES TO THE PUBLIC POWER STATIONS LIE AT AROUND 169 MILLION TONNES , I.E . TWO MILLION TONNES ABOVE WHAT WAS FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR . COAL CONSUMPTION FOR THE TOTALITY OF COMMUNITY POWER STATIONS ( INCLUDING INDUSTRIAL POWER STATIONS ) WOULD REACH A LEVEL OF ABOUT 184 MILLION TONNES , I.E . 1,5 MILLION TONNES ABOVE THE BEGINNING-OF-YEAR FORECASTS .

SEVERAL DIFFERENT TRENDS ARE EMERGING :

POWER STATIONS IN DENMARK ARE REDUCING THEIR CONSUMPTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE IMPORTS OF ELECTRIC CURRENT FROM OTHER SCANDINATIAN COUNTRIES ; THE INTER-NETWORK LINKS ARE TO BE DEVELOPED EVENFURTHER . MOREOVER , THE VOLUME OF STOCKS HELD BY THE POWER STATIONS WILL BE LIMITED .

IN FRANCE THE LOW RAINFALL DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS OF 1982 AND THE SLOWING DOWN IN THE PRODUCTION OF NUCLEAR-BASED ELECTRICITY MEAN THAT MORE COAL IS BEING USED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR .

IN THE UNITED KINGDOM , THE MARKET SITUATION MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THAT CONSUMPTION WILL LIE AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE RANGE ( 85 TO 90 MILLION TONNES ) WHEREAS EARLY IN THE YEAR IT WAS STILL HOPED TO ACHIEVE A FIGURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT RANGE . ANY SURPLUS DELIVERIES WILL BE STOCKED BY THE POWER STATIONS .

3 . OTHER INDUSTRIES

DELIVERIES TO THE INDUSTRY SECTOR DURING 1982 SHOULD RUN AT ABOUT 29 MILLION TONNES OF COAL AND COKE , OF WHICH NEARLY SEVEN MILLION TONNES OF COAL WILL BE FOR ELECTRICITY SELF-PRODUCTION .

WITH COKE CONSUMPTION ROUGHLY CONSTANT AT AROUND 3,5 MILLION TONNES , A FIGURE FOR COAL CONSUMPTION OF 19 MILLION TONNES WOULD CONSTITUTE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS OVER 1981 .

IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES , A LARGE PART OF THE CEMENTMAKING INDUSTRY HAS ALREADY RECONVERTED ITS EQUIPMENT TO BURN COAL ; THIS TREND IS CONTINUING , PARTICULARLY IN GREECE WHERE AN IMPORT FIGURE OF 1,5 MILLION TONNES IS EXPECTED FOR THIS PURPOSE . IN THE OTHER INDUSTRIAL SECTORS , A NUMBER OF RECONVERSION PLANS ARE BEING PREPARED AND SHOULD ULTIMATELY RESULT , IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE , IN A CERTAIN NUMBER OF ORDERS FOR COAL-FIRED , INSTALLATIONS . IN MANY CASES , THE ATTRACTION OF THE PRICE DIFFERENTIAL AS COMPARED WITH FUEL OIL , AND THE EFFECT OF ANY INCENTIVE MEASURES , STILL SEEM INADEQUATE TO OVERCOME THE RELUCTANCE TO INVEST .

IN FRANCE , THE RECONVERSION AID CONTRACTS SIGNED IN 1981 HAVE BORNE FRUIT BY THE REPLACEMENT BY COAL OF A QUANTITY OF FUEL OIL REPRESENTING 300 000 TOE ( TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT ) PER YEAR IN THE NON-CEMENT INDUSTRY AND ANOTHER 300 000 TOE PER YEAR IN JOINT HEATING ; THE OVERALL AIM HAD BEEN A REPLACEMENT FIGURE OF 900 000 TOE PER YEAR OVER 10 YEARS . ANALYSIS OF THE FIGURES JUST QUOTED SHOWS THAT THE RATE OF REPLACEMENT IS RELATIVELY GREATER IN THE JOINT HEATING OF NEW BUILDINGS .

4 . DOMESTIC SECTOR

FOR 1982 THE DELIVERIES OF COAL , BRIQUETTES AND COKE FOR DOMESTIC HEATING WILL REACH A FIGURE OF MORE THAN 20 MILLION TONNES ( INCLUDING ISSUES TO WORKERS ) .

THIS FIGURE IS ONCE AGAIN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE EARLIER FORECASTS .

TO THIS SHOULD BE ADDED SOME 4,4 MILLION TONNES OF BROWN-COAL AND PEAT BRIQUETTES .

THE PRICE OF CERTAIN TYPES OF COAL ( IN PARTICULAR ANTHRACITE ) IS NO LONGER COMPETITIVE WITH THOSE FOR OTHER FORMS OF ENERGY ; HOWEVER , SOME PART OF THE CONSUMPTION OF THESE TYPES IS REPLACED BY SYNTHETIC FUELS ( PARTICULARLY SMOKELESS FUELS ) .

IV . COMMUNITY COAL PRODUCTION

1 . PRODUCTION STATISTICS

COAL PRODUCTION WILL FALL OFF BY CLOSE ON TWO MILLION TONNES IN 1982 , FINISHING AT A FIGURE OF 244 MILLION TONNES AGAINST 245,7 MILLION TONNES IN 1981 .

IN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY , A REDUCTION IN THE TOTAL WORKFORCE HAS GONE IN HAND WITH LESS ABSENTEEISM AND AN INCREASE IN THE LEVEL OF PRODUCTIVITY . IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER OUTPUT .

3 . DEVELOPMENTS IN PRODUCTION CAPACITY

IN THE UNITED KINGDOM , THE WORK PREPARATORY TO STARTING PRODUCTION IN THE BELVOIR COALFIELD IS TO BEGIN , NOW THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN SOLVED . RESERVES IN THIS COALFIELD ARE ESTIMATED AT 1 300 MILLION TONNES , OF WHICH 510 MILLION TONNES ARE RECOVERABLE . THE WORKING LIFE OF THE COALFIELD SHOULD BE AROUND 75 YEARS ; IT COULD ATTAIN A LEVEL OF PRODUCTION OF SEVEN MILLION TONNES A YEAR BY 1995 .

V . COAL PRICES

SINCE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXCHANGE RATES HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE , THE FOLLOWING LIST SHOWING THE MOVEMENTS OF THE US DOLLAR AGAINST COMMUNITY CURRENCIES MAY PROVE USEFUL :

1 US DOLLAR = *BFRS*DKR*DM*FF*LIT*FL*POUND*DR*ECU*

5 JANUARY 1981*31,44*6,01*1,95*4,52*929*2,12*0,416*49,50* 1,3096*

1 OCTOBER 1981*38,09*7,32*2,32*5,57*1 184*2,59*0,545* 57,50*1,0688*

4 JANUARY 1982*38,03*7,28*2,23*5,65*1 192*2,45*0,517* 57,215*1,0851*

1 APRIL 1982*45,42*8,22*2,41*6,27*1 322*2,67*0,560*63,03* 0,9951*

1 JULY 1982*47,06*8,52*2,46*6,83*1 385*2,72*0,576*69,26* 0,9598*

1 . DEVELOPMENT OF LISTED PRICES OF COMMUNITY COALS

( TABLES 19 A AND 19 B )

THE ORIGINAL REPORT ANALYZED THE PRICE INCREASES APPLIED IN 1981 BY THE COMMUNITY PRODUCERS OF COAL AND COKE .

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 1982 , THIS RISING TREND CONTINUED EXCEPT IN GREAT BRITAIN . THE SITUATION CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS AS OF 1 JULY 1982 :

BELGIUM

INCREASES OF 10 % IN THE PRICE OF HAINAUT ANTHRACITE ON 1 MAY ; OF 3 TO 43 % FOR COKE AT VARIOUS DATES ; OF 6 TO 8 % FOR THE OTHER COALS ON 1 JULY .

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

INCREASES WERE INTRODUCED ON 1 APRIL , 1 MAY AND 1 JUNE , VARYING WITH THE PRODUCTS IN QUESTION AND THE COMPANIES CONCERNED .

THE FIGURES RANGE FROM 1 TO 10 % FOR INDUSTRIAL COALS , AND FROM 1 TO 13 % FOR INDUSTRIAL OR DOMESTIC COKE .

FRANCE

PRICES WERE RAISED ON 1 FEBRUARY , 1 APRIL AND 1 JULY ; THE PERCENTAGE INCREASES RANGE FROM 7 TO 15 % ACCORDING TO THE PRODUCT IN QUESTION .

UNITED KINGDOM

ON 1 MARCH , PRICES FOR ANTHRACITE AND LEAN COAL FROM THE SOUTH WALES COALFIELD AND FOR DOMESTIC COKE AND SMOKELESS BRIQUETTES WERE REDUCED BY 1 % ; THE SUMMER REBATES WERE APPLIED IN THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY . THE BRITISH STEEL CORPORATION LOWERED THE PRICE OF COKE BY 12 % .

2 . TRENDS IN THE PRICE OF IMPORTED COAL

( A ) COKING COAL

THE " GUIDE PRICE " ( 1 ) BEGAN TO FALL OFF FROM THE MAXIMUM LEVEL WHICH IT HAD REACHED IN THE LAST QUARTER OF 1981 ( US DOLLARS 86,55 PER TONNE OF STANDARD QUALITY COAL ) .

THE PRICE SETTLED DOWN TO DOLLARS 82,45 FOR THE FIRST QUARTER AND TO DOLLARS 82,20 FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 1982 .

THIS FALLING-OFF WAS CAUSED BY THREE FACTORS : A CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN THE PROPORTION OF DEMURRAGE INCLUDED IN THE GUIDE PRICE ( RESPECTIVELY DOLLARS 8,90 , DOLLARS 4,45 AND DOLLARS 1,95 PER TONNE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CIF PRICE EXCLUDING DEMURRAGE ( ABOUT DOLLARS 2,20 OVER A SIX-MONTH PERIOD ) WHICH WAS IN TURN A RESULT OF A RISE OF SOME DOLLARS 3 IN THE FOB PRICE OF THE COAL AND A REDUCTION IN FREIGHT RATES AMOUNTING ON AVERAGE TO DOLLARS 0,90 ( APPROXIMATELY 10 % ) PER TONNE .

CONVERSION OF THE GUIDE PRICE INTO THE NATIONAL CURRENCIES OF THE PRODUCER COUNTRIES OF THE COMMUNITY REVEALS AN INCREASE STARTING ON 1 APRIL 1982 , IN CONSEQUENCE OF THE PRECEDING TRENDS IN THE EXCHANGE RATE . IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY AND GREAT BRITAIN THE FIGURES DID NOT RETURN TO THE VALUE OF OCTOBER 1981 .

GUIDE PRICE EXPRESSED IN NATIONAL CURRENCIES

REFERENCE DATE*US DOLLARS*DM*BFRS*FF*POUND*

1 OCTOBER 1981*86,55*201*3 297*482*47*

1 JANUARY 1982*82,45*184*3 135*466*43*

1 APRIL 1982*82,20*198*3 734*515*46*

1 JULY 1982*81,20*200*3 821*555*49*

( B ) STEAM COAL

THE AVERAGE PRICE ( CIF ARA ) OF THE COAL IMPORTED FOR THE COMMUNITY'S POWER STATIONS ALSO FELL DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1982 AS COMPARED WITH THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1981 , DROPPING TO A LEVEL OF DOLLARS 72 TO DOLLARS 70,60 PER TONNE OF 29,3 GJ .

( C ) COMPARISON OF THE TREND IN THE PRICES OF IMPORTED COKING AND STEAM COAL

ON THE BASIS OF THE INFORMATION RECEIVED BY THE COMMISSION FOR THE CALCULATION OF THE AVERAGE VALUES INDICATED AT ( A ) AND ( B ) ABOVE , WE OBTAIN THE FOLLOWING COMPARISON WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD :

COKING COAL*FOURTH QUARTER 1981*FIRST QUARTER 1982*

1 . US-DOLLARS/T = T*83,29*79,53*

2 . GUIDE PRICE ( US DOLLARS/T ) *86,55*82,45*

3 . LCV ( KJ/KG ) OF 2*31 124*31 124*

4 . ECU/T ( 29,3 GJ ) *74,45*74,82*

STEAM COAL***

5 . US DOLLARS/T = T*62,81*62,02*

6 . LCV ( KJ/KG ) OF 5*25 556*25 729*

7 . ECU/T ( 29,3 GJ ) *65,86*67,13*

RATIO 4 : 7 IN % *113 % *111 % *

THE RESULTS CONFIRM THAT THE GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE PREMIUM USUALLY PAID FOR COKING COALS HAS CONTINUED .

( 1 ) MEAN VALUE CIF ARA FOR COKING COAL IMPORTED FROM THE UNITED STATES AND FROM AUSTRALIA UNDER MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM CONTRACTS .

VI . COKE

2 . COKE PRODUCTION AND COAL SUPPLIES

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR THE SITUATION ON THE COKE MARKET LED TO EXPECTATIONS THAT THE COKE PRODUCTION FOR 1982 WOULD BE EQUAL TO THAT FOR 1981 , I.E . MORE THAN 64 MILLION TONNES .

IN THE MEANWHILE , IT HAS BECOME LIKELY THAT THE STEEL INDUSTRY'S DEMANDS WILL DROP BY SOME FOUR MILLION TONNES .

BOTH A CUT IN PRODUCTION AND STOCKPILING BY PRODUCERS , PARTICULARLY OF COKE , ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED .

VII . TRADE IN COAL AND COKE

1 . INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE

THE PRINCIPAL FEATURE OF THE YEAR 1981 IS THE PLACE OCCUPIED BY GREAT BRITAIN AS A SUPPLIER OF COAL TO THE COMMUNITY , DELIVERING 7,4 MILLION TONNES TO THE OTHER ECSC COUNTRIES ; IN 1982 , GREAT BRITAIN WILL STILL BE PROVIDING 6,6 MILLION TONNES . ADDING THE GERMAN DELIVERIES OF 7,8 MILLION TONNES , THIS AMOUNTS TO MORE THAN 90 % OF THE TOTAL INTRA-COMMUNITY TRADE IN COAL .

THIS COAL IS LIKELY TO DROP TO 15,7 MILLION TONNES INSTEAD OF THE 18,3 MILLION TONNES FORECAST INITIALLY AND OF THE 19,5 MILLION ACTUALLY SUPPLIED IN 1981 .

INTRA-COMMUNITY DELIVERIES OF COKE WILL BE 5,7 MILLION AS AGAINST 6,9 MILLION TONNES IN 1981 .

2 . TRADE WITH THIRD COUNTRIES

( A ) IMPORTS

IMPORTS OF COAL FROM THIRD COUNTRIES WILL AMOUNT TO SOME 68 MILLION TONNES IN 1982 . THIS TOTAL , WHICH IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR AND THE ACTUAL FIGURE ACHIEVED IN 1981 ( 70 MILLION TONNES ) BREAKS DOWN DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE MEMBER COUNTRIES .

FRANCE , WITH IMPORTS OF 17,8 MILLION TONNES ( 2,3 MILLION LESS THAN IN 1981 ) , REMAINS THE COMMUNITY'S LARGEST IMPORTER . IT WOULD SEEM THAT ITALY WILL BE IMPORTING ROUGHLY THE SAME THE AMOUNT , I.E . 16,5 MILLION TONNES . THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY , BELGIUM AND THE NETHERLANDS MAINTAIN STABLE FIGURES FOR IMPORTS ; DENMARK IS REDUCING ITS IMPORTS BY 25 % OR TWO MILLION TONNES AND GREAT BRITAIN IS ALSO REDUCING , BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT . GREECE TAKES SUPPLIES OF 1,5 MILLION ON THE WORLD MARKET .

LOOKING AT THE SOURCES FROM WHICH THESE IMPORTS ARE DRAWN , THE USA WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN ITS 1981 LEVEL - 34 MILLION . IMPORTS FROM POLAND , ESTIMATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR AT ROUGHLY EQUAL TO THOSE FOR 1981 ( 4,5 MILLION TONNES ) , COULD RISE TO SOMETHING AROUND 7,5 MILLION . THIS DIFFERENCE WILL BE LARGELY OFFSET BY A REDUCTION IN IMPORTS FROM SOUTH AFRICA .

VIII . STOCKS OF COAL AND COKE

ON 31 DECEMBER 1981 , THE STOCKS OF COAL HELD BY THE PRODUCERS TOTALLED 46 MILLION TONNES . TAKING INTO ACCOUNT TONNES THE CURRENT ESTIMA * OF CONSUMPTION , STOCKS COULD REACH ALMOST 51 MILLION TONNES BY THE END OF 1982 .

COKE STOCKS - WHICH WERE SLIGHLY REDUCED IN 1981 , PARTICULARLY IN GREAT BRITAIN - WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 1982 BUT WILL BE LIMITED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO GERMANY ( + 4,0 MILLION TONNES OR THEREABOUTS ) .

THE TOTAL STOCKS HELD BY PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS COULD THUS , BY THE END OF 1982 , REACH A TOTAL OF SOME 120 MILLION ( COAL AND COKE EXPRESSED IN COAL EQUIVALENT ) . THIS FIGURE WOULD BE THREE MILLION HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE END OF 1981 AND WOULD BE EQUIVALENT TO SOME SIX MONTHS OF COMMUNITY PRODUCTION AND 140 DAYS' WORTH OF CONSUMPTION .

TABLES : SEE O.J .