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ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗ ΤΩΝΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΩΝ ΚΟΙΝΟΤΗΤΩΝ
CΟΜ(88 )656 τελικό
Βρυξέλλες ,14Δεκεμβρίου 1988
ΑΝΑΚΟΙΝΩΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗΣ ΠΡΟΣ ΤΟΣΥΜΒΟΥΛΙΟ
μεθέμα
"ΤΟΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ ΚΑΙ ΗΚΟΙΝΟΤΗΤΑ "
και
Σχέδιο
ΨΗΦΙΣΜΑ ΤΟΥ ΣΥΜΒΟΥΛΙΟΥ
γιατοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου καιτηνΚοινότητα
(υποβληθείσα από τηνΕπιτροπή )

Ανακοίνωση τηςΕπιτροπής προς τοΣυμβούλιο
μεθέμα
"ΤΟΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ
ΚΑΙ ΗΚΟΙΝΟΤΗΤΑ "

ΠΕΡΙΕΧΟΜΕΝΑ
ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ ΚΑΙ ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑΠαράγραφο ι
Α-ΓΣελ (ία
4-11
I. ΕΙΣΑΓβΓΗ ΣΤΟ ΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ
Τιe(ναιενολίγοις τοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου 1-2 12-13
Αέρια θερμοκηπίου :πηγές εκπομπών καιτάσεις της
ατμοσφαιρικής συγκέντρωσης3-10 13-20
Ενδεχόμενες κλιματικές συνέπειες τωναυξανόμενων
συγκεντρώσεων αερίων θερμοκηπίου 11-13 20-27
Ενδεχόμενες επιπτώσεις τωνκλιματικών μεταβολών 14-21 27-32
II.ΤΟΔΙΕΘΝΕΣ ΠΛΑΙΣΙΟ ΚΑΙ 01ΠΡΟΟΠΤΙΚΕΣ
Ειοαγωγή 22 32-33
Τοπαγκόσμιο συνέδριο γιατην"Μεταβαλλόμενη Ατμόσφαιρα "
(Τορόντο ,27-30 Ιουνίου 1988 )23 33-38
Μελλοντικές πιθανές εξελίξεις 24-28 38-40
III .ΕΠΙΣΚΟΠΗΣΗ ΤΗΣΠΙΘΑΝΗΣ ΔΡΑΣΗΣ .
Ειοαγωγή 29-31 40-41
Ερευνητικές δραστηριότητες 32-36 42-44
Προληπτική δράση 37-42 44-4 «

Παράγραφοι Σελίδα-3-
Προγραμματισμένη προσαρμογή 43*45 48*49
Συνεργασία μετιςαναπτυσσόμενες χώρες 46 49*50
IV.ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ ΤΗΣΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗΣ 47*58 51-54
ΠΑΡΑΡΤΗΜΑ
Τοσυνέδριο "νΐ^ΑΟΗ*· Α 56
(νΐϋ -ΑΟΗ-Αυστρία, 9-15 Οκτωβρίου 1985 )
Τοσυμπόσιο ΕΟΚ "ΟΟ^καιάλλααέρια θερμοκηπίου " Β 57
(Βρυξέλλες /3*5Νοεμβρίου 1986 )
Τασυνέδρια πρακτικής εργασίας (ΜΟΚΚ$ΗΟΡ$ )μεθέμα Γ 58*60
"Διαμόρφωση πολιτικής γιατηναντιμετώπιση των
κλιματικών μεταβολών "(νΐΙΛΑΟΗ *Αυστρία ,28Σεπτεμβρίου *
2Οκτωβρίου 1987 καιΒΕυ,ΑΟΙΟ -Ιταλία ,9*13 Νοεμβρίου 1987 )
Ηέκθεση τηςεπιτροπής ΒΚϋΝ0ΤΙ_ΑΝ0 Δ 61
Τοψήφισμα τουΕυρωπαϊκού Κοινοβουλίου Ε 61

-4-
ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ ΚΑΙ ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ
Α. ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ
Α.1 . Εισαγωγή
Στις 19Ιουλίου 1988 ηΕπιτροπή αποφάσισε νασυστήσει διυπηρεσιακή
ομάδα μεστόχο ναεπεξεργασθεί μέχρι ταμέσα τουΝοεμβρίου 1988
ορισμένες προκαταρκτικές ιδέες γιαενδεχόμενη κοινοτική δράση
όσον αφορά το"Φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου ".
Στόχος τουπαρόντος εγγράφου ,τοοποίο βασίζεται στοέργο τηςανωτέρω
ομάδας ,είναι ηανασκόπηση τουζητήματος αυτού και ηυποβολή συμπερασμά ¬
των καισυστάσεων γιατιςπεραιτέρω ενεόγειες πουπρέπει αμέσως νααρχίσουν ,
γιατηδράση πουπρέπει νασναληφθεί επειγόντως καιγιατονπιθανό
ρόλο τηςΕυρωπαϊκής Κοινότητας στηδιεθνή συζήτηση σχετικά μετο
σύνθετο αυτό πρόβλημα .
Α.2 . Τοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου
Α.2.1 .Οιτρέχουσες κλιματικές συνθήκες στηγηδιέπονται σεμεγάλο βαθμό από
τησύνθεση τηςατμόσφαιρας .
Οιυδρατμοί ,τοδιοξείδιο τουάνθρακος (Οί^),τομεθάνιο (ΟΗ^)τουπο-
ξείδιο τουαζώτου^0),τοόζον (03)και,πιοπρόσφατα ,οιχλωριο -
φθοριωμένοι υδρογονάνθρακες (ΟΡΟ ,απορροφώντας μέρος τηςυπέρυθρης
ακτινοβολίας πουεκπέμπεται απότηγηπρος αντιστάθμιση τηςεισρέουσας
ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας ,αποθηκεύουν μέρος τηςτελευταίας στην ατμόσφαιρα .
Α.2.2 .0άνθρωπος μεταβάλλει μεπρωτόγνωρους ρυθμούς τησύνθεση τηςατμόσφαιρας .
Οισυγκεντρώσεις όλων τωνλεγόμενων "αερίων θερμοκηπίου "αυξάνονται ,
λόγω τηςπαρέμβασης τωνανθρώπίνων δραστηριοτήτων στους βιοχημικούς
κύκλους τωνουσιών αυτών .Τομέγεθος τωνμεταβολών αυτών είναι
σημαντικό απόπλευράς ενδεχόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών .
Γνωρίζουμε σήμερα ότιτοθερμικό ισοζύγιο τηςγηςαποσταθεροποιεί τα ι,
καιότιθαεπακολουθήσουν ορισμένες θερμαντικές καιπιθανές συναρτώμενες
κλιματικές μεταβολές ,ανάλογα μετομέγεθος τηςενλόγω αποσταθεροποίησης .

-5-
Α«*.3 .Τοαέριο πουέχει τημεγαλύτερη ευθύνη γιατοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου
είναι το0θ£ ,οιεκπομπές τουοποίου οφείλονται κατάκύριο λόγο
οτην κΐύοτ]ορυκτών καυσίμων (5(3Τ0Ν8 άνθρακα /έτος*),οτηνκαύση
(υλών καιστην αποσύνθεση τηςδασικής βιομάζας πουσυνδέεται μετην
αποδάσωση (0,5-Ζ0Τ0Ν5 άνθρακα /έτος).
Γήμερα το€02είναι υπεύθυνο σεποσοστό κατά τιμεγαλύτερο του50X
γιατοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου .Ένα 25Xτουφαινομένου βαρύνει τους
χλωριοφθορι ωμένους υδρογονάνθρακες (€ΡΟ πουχρησιμοποιούνται σε
σειρά εφαρμογών όπως τααεροζόλ ,ταδοχεία σπρέΰ ,ταμηχανήματα
κλιματισμού ,ταψυγεία ,οιδιαλύτες ,ησυσκευασία ,κλπ .Τουπόλοιπο
ποσοστό αποδίδεται στομεθάνιο (€Η^)απόταζώαεκτροφής ,τους
ορυζώνες ,τηνεκμετάλλευση φυσικού αερίου ,τηνατελή καύση βιομάζας
καιάνθρακα ,τουποξείδιο τουαζώτου (^0)πουπροέρχεται απότην
καύση ορυκτών καυσίμων καιαπότηχρήση αζωτούχων λιπασμάτων ,καθώς
καιτοτροποσφα ιρικό όζον πουοφείλεται σεφωτοχημικές διεργασίες
στηρυπαρή ατμόσφαιρα . Οιεκπομπές αερίων θερμοκηπίου
έχουν αυξηθεί σημαντικά τιςτελευταίες δεκαετίες .
Α.2.4 .Μεβάση τααποτέλέσματα τωνκλιματικών μοντέλων σεπαγκόσμια κλίμακα ,
συνάγεται τοσυμπέρασμα ότιηγηάγει προς αύξηση τηςμέσης θερμο ¬
κρασίας τηςεπιφάνειας ,τηςτάξεως των 1,5-4,5Έ,λόγω τουδιπλασιαφού τηςαιγκέν -
τρωαπς τννπροβιομηχανικών ισοδύναμων αερίων θερμοκηπίου .Μετους σημε ¬
ρινούς ρυθμούς ,αυτό αναμένεται νασυμβεί πριν τοέτος 2050 .
Α.2.5 .Τασημερινά κλιματικά μοντέλα δενείναι οεθέση ναπαράσχουν αξιόπιστες
περιφερειακές εκτιμήσεις τωνενδεχόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών πουνα
ανταποκρίνονται στην προαναφερθείσα μέση αύξηση τηςεπιφανειακής
θερμοκρασίας .
0ιπρώτες εκτιμήσεις υποδηλώνουν ότιστην Ευρώπη ηαύξηση τηςθερμο -
κραφίας ενδέχεται ναείναι μεγαλύτερη απύότι οπαγκόσμιος μέσος όρος .
Α.2.6 .0ιέμμεσες επιπτώσεις τωνκλιματικών αυτών μεταβολών θαμπορούσαν να
συνοφιοθούν ωςεξής :
-αύξηση τηςθαλάσσιας στάθμης (από30αηοε1,5 σιπροκειμένου περί
αυξήσεως τηςθερμοκρασίας τηςτάξεως των1,5-4 ,5*Ο,
-μέίωση τωνπάγων τηςθάλασσας ,
“μείωση τωνυδάτινων πόρων οεορισμένες περιοχές ,
-μεταβολές τηςγεωργικής παραγωγικότητας ,
-επιπτώσεις οτην ανθρώπινη υγεία καιτηνοικολογία .
*1βίοη-ΙΟ^τόνοι ι·1.000 εκατομμύρια τόνοι·

А.З ,-6-
Λ.3, Τοδιεθνές πλαίσιο καιοιπροοπτικές
Α.3.1 .Γτο"Διεθνές Συνέδριο γιατηνεκτίμηση καιτορόλο τουύΟ^καιάλλων
αερίων θερμοκηπίου οτις μεταβολές τουκλίματος και αυναρτώμενες
επιπτώσεις "(νΐΙΙ-ΑΟΗ ,9-15 Οκτωβρίου 1985),επετέύχθη επιστημονική
συναίνεση γιατιςβασικές συνιστώσες τουφαινομένου θερμοκηπ (οι^που
αναφέρονται στις προηγούμενες παραγράφους ,
Α.3 .2.Τασυμπεράσματα τουσυνεδρίου του νΐ!_Ι_Α0Η αναπτύχθηκαν περαιτέρω σε
συμπόσιο τηςΕΟΚστιςΒρυξέλλες (3-5Νοεμβρίου 1986 )μεθέμα "το00^
καιάλλα αέρια θερμοκηπίου :κλίμα καιαυναρτώμενα φαινόμενα "καιαεσυνέδρια προκτικής
εργασίας (ΗΟΚΚ5ΗΟΡ8 στονΐΙΙΑΟί (28Σεπτεμβρίου -20Οκτωβρίου 1987 )καιτοΒΒ1Λ2Ι0 (9-13
Νοεμβρίου 1937)μεθέμα "διαμόρφωση πολιτικής γιατηναντιμετώπιση τωνκλιματικών
μεταβολών ".
Α.3 .3.Τοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου απετέλεσε επίσης τοαντικείμενο τ>νεργασιών
τηςεπιτροπής ΒΚυΝΟΤΙΑΝΟ .Κατόπιν συστάσεων τηςενλόγω επιτροπής ,
πραγματοποιήθηκε στοΤορόντο παγκόσμιο συνέδριο μεθέμα "ημεταβαλλόμενη
ατμόσφαιρα ,επιπτώσεις για τηνπαγκόσμια ασφάλεια "(27-30 Ιουνίου 1988 ).
Τοσυνέδριο αυτό συνέστηοε μεταξύ άλλων καιτιςακόλουθες ενέργειες ;
-Κύρωση του πρωτοκόλλου τουΜοντρεάλ γιατιςουσίες πουπροκαλούν
μείωση τουστρώματος όζοντος .Τοπρωτόκολλο πρέπει νααναθεωρηθεί
το1990 ώστε ναεξασφαλισθεί ησχεδόν ολοσχερής εξάλειψη τωνεκπομπών
πλήρως αλογονωμένων χλοριοφθοριωμένων υδρογονανθράκων (ΟΡΟ τοέτος
2000 .
-θέσπιση ενεργειακής πολιτ ικήςγιατημείωση τωνεκπομιπών 00^καιάλλων ιχνών
αερίων προκειμένου ναμειωθούν οικίνδυνοι μελλοντικής παγκόσμιας
θέρμανσης .
-Μείωση τωνεκπομπών ^ κατά 20Xπεήιπου τωνεπιπέδων του1988 κατά
τοέτος 2005 ,ωςαρχικός συνολικός στόχος τωνεκβιομηχαν ισμένων χωρών .
-Καθορισμός στόχων γιαβελτιώσεις τηςενεργειακής αποτελεσματ ικότητας
πουσυνδέονται άμεσα μεπεριορισμούς του00^καιάλλων αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
-Έναρξη τηςκατάρτισης μίας ευρείας παγκόσμιας σύμβασης .
-Δημιουργία ενός Παγκόσμιου Ταμείου Ατμοσφά ίρας .
Α.3.4 ,Μιαπιθανή βραχυπρόθεσμη απόρροια τωνανωτέρω διεθνών δραστηριοτήτων
είναι ηήδηαπότο1989 έναρξη τηςδιαδικασίας γιατην κατάρτιση
συμφωνίας σχετικά μετοθέμα τουθερμοκηπίου ,πουθαπεριελάμβανε
ενδεχομένως πρωτόκολλα γιατονπεριορισμό τωνεκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου .

-7-
Α.3.5 .Επόμενοι βασικοί οταθμοί στηνπορεία γιατησύναψη τηςσυμφωνίας αυτής
θαείναι πιθανότατα :
-τοδιεθνές συνέδριο πρακτικής εργασίας (ΜΟΚΚδΗΟΡ )γιατπνομοθεσία και
τηνπολιτική ,πουθαπραγματοποιηθεί στην Οττάβα στις αρχές του1989 ,
“μιαυψηλού επιπέδου πολιτική συνδιάσκεψη πουθασυγκληθεί τοφθινόπωρο
του1989 απότοΥπουργείο Περιβάλλοντος τωνΚάτω Χωρών ,
-ηΔεύτερη Παγκόσμια Συνδιάσκεψη γιατοΚλίμα ,Γενεύη ,Ιούνιος 1990 ,
-ηΔιακυβερνητική Συνδιάσκεψη γιατηντόνωση τηςΑνάπτυξης το1992 ,που
θαμπορούσε νααποτελεόει τοκορυφαίο γεγονός·
Α.4 . Δυνατές ενέργειες
Α.4.1 .Ηπολιτική αντιμετώπ ιοη$τουφαινομένου θερμοκηπίου θαμπορούσε να
περιλαμβάνει προληπτικά μέτρα και/ήμέτρα προσαρμογής ,
Α.4.2 .Οιπροληπτικές ενέργειες αποβλέπουν στημείωση τωνεκπομπών αερίων
θερμοκηπίου προκειμένου νααμβλυνθούν οιαναμενόμενες επιπτώσεις .
Όσον αφορά το οενεργειακός τομέας ενγένει καιηδασοκομία
στις τροπικές περιοχές αποτελούν τους σημαντικότερους τομείς προς
παρέμβαση .
Μεταξύ τωνενεργειακών μέτρων πουθασυνέβαλλαν στημείωση τωνεκπομπών
θαμπορούσαν ναπεριλαμβάνονται :
-ηαύξηση τηςενεργειακής αποτελεσματ ικότητας (τόσο απόπλευράς προμήθειας
όσοκαιαπόπλευράς ζήτησης ),
-ηστροφή προς καύσιμα πουπεριέχουν λιγότερο άνθρακα ,
-ηπροαγωγή ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας καιηαύξηση τηςχρήσης της
βιομάζας ,
-ππροαγωγή τηςασφαλούς πυρηνικής ενέργειας .
Ιδιαίτερη σημασία φαίνεται ναέχει ηπροαγωγή καινοτόμων ενεργειακών
τεχνολογιών γιατηστήριξη τωνμέτρων αυτών .
Σεμακροπρόθεσμη βάση ,ηδημιουργία νέων ενεργειακών συστημάτων πουδεν
βασίζονται στον άνθρακα ,θαμπορούσε ναουιΐάλει σημαντικά στον
περιορισμό τωνεκπομπών

-8-
Βεβαίως ,ταπαραπάνω μέτρα δενέχουν όλατην !(διααποτελεσματικότητα .
Επιπλεόν ,απαιτείται προσεκτική εκτίμηση τηςοικονομικής βιωσιμότητάς
τους .
Στόχος τηςδασικής πολιτικής πρέπει ναείναι ηαναστροφή τωνσημερινών
τάσεων αποδάσωοης ,ιδίως στις περιοχές τουισημερινού .Προς τοσκοπό
αυτό ειδικότερα ,θαήταν αναγκαία ηπροαγωγή υποκατάστατων του
ξύλου πουχρησιμοποιείται σεμαζική κλίμακα ωςκαύσιμο στις περιοχές
αυτές ,καιηπροαγωγή βάσιμων γεωλογικών πρακτικών ,κατά τρόπον ώστε
ηγεωργική ανάπτυξη ναμησυνεπάγεται ευρείας κλίμακας καύση δασών
γιατονκαθαρισμό εδαφών γιαγεωργικές χρήσεις .
Α.4.3 .Οιδυνατές ενέργειες γιατονπεριορισμό τωνεκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου
όπωςτοΟΗ^και^0είναι λιγότερο σαφής ,δεδομένης τηςαβεβαιότητας
πουχαρακτηρίζει τιςεκπομπές τωνενλόγω ουσιών .
Ταεξήςοημεία θαμπορούσαν ναδιερευνηθούν :
-ηελαχιστοποίηση τηςδιαφυγής κατά τηνεξόρυξη μεταφορά και
χρησιμοποίηση φυσικού αερίου .
-Ηελαχιστοποίηση τηςδιαφυγής ΟΗ^απότουςχώρους ελεγχόμενης
εναπόθεσης .
-IIελαχιστοποίηση τηςεκπομπής Ν^Οκατά τηνκαύση ορυκτών καυσίμων .
-Ημελέτη δυνατών βελτιώσεων στηδιαχείριση τουζωϊκού κεφαλαίου ,
στην ορυζοκαλλ ιέργε ιακαιστηδιαχείριση τωνλιμνοθαλασσών ,με
στόχο τημείωση τηςαποδέσμευσης ΟΗ^.
-Ημελέτη τωνδυνατοτήτων βελτίωσης τωνδιαχειριστικών πρακτικών
λίπανσης ,μεσκοπό .τηνμείωση τηςαπελευθέρωσης Ν^Οκατα τη
χρήση αζωτούχων λιπασμάτων .
Α.4.4 .Στην περίπτωση τωνχλωριοφθοριωμένων υδρογονανθράκων (ΟΡΟ ,η
σχεδόν ολοσχερής εξάλειψη τωνεκπομπών ΟΡΟθαήταν δυνατή κατά
τοέτος 2000 ,μετονπεριορισμό τηςπαραγωγής καιτηνανάκτηση ,
τηνανακύκλωση ήτηνκαταστροφή τωνΟΡΟσταυφιστάμενα προϊόντα .
Λ.4,5 .Ενδέχεται νααπαιτηθεί ηλήψη μέτρων προσαρμογής (δηλαδή μέτρων
πουαπαιτούνται γιατηνπρόληψη ήτονπεριορισμό τωνκαταστροφών
πουοφείλονται σεκλιματικές μεταβολές καισυναρτώμενα φαινόμενα )
προκειμένου νααντιμετωπισθούν οιεπιπτώσεις που,παρά ταπροληπτικά
μέτρα ,καθίστανται ενδεχομένως αναπόφευκτες .
Στην παρούσα φάση δενείναι δυνατόν νακαθοριστούν λεπτομερώς τα
μέτρα προσαρμογής πουθαχρειαζόταν ναληφθούν στην Κοινότητα ,
λόγω τηςέλλειψης μιας αξιόπιστης περιφερειακής εκτίμησης των
ενδεχόμενων επιπτώσεων .

-9-
Σεγενικές γραμμές ,ταμέτρα προσαρμογής γιατηναντιμετώπιση της
ανόδου τηςστάθμης τηςθάλασσας θαμπορούσαν ναπεριλαμβάνουν θαλάσσια
αντιπλημμυρ ικάφράγματα ,εθνικά ασφαλιστικά προγράμματα κατά των
πλημμυρών ,κατασκευή τεχνητών λιμνών (γιατηναντιμετώπιση τηςηυξημένης
περιεκτικότητας σεαλάτι ),τηνεγκατάλειψη ανεπτυγμένων περιοχών οε
ζώνες χαμηλού υψομέτρου ,επανεγκατάσταοη πληθυσμών μακρυά απότις
ευπρόσβλητες περιοχές ,προστασία τωνπαράκτιων οικοσυστημάτων .
Χρειάζεται περισσότερη μελέτη γιατονκαθορισμό πιθανών μέτρων προ¬
σαρμογής σεάλλους τομείς όπως ηγεωργία καιηδασοκομία .
8. ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΤΙΓΝΩΡΙΖΟΥΜΕ ΣΗΜΕΡΑ ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΜΕΤΟΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΒ’ΤΐΧΗΊΙΟΥ
8.1. Ησύνθεση τηςγήινης ατμόσφαιρας μεταβάλλεται σημαντικά απότις
ανθήωπινες δραστηριότητες .
Μεβάοη τααποτελέσματα παγκόσμιων κλιματικών μοντέλων ,οιεπιστήμονες
συμφωνούν ότι οδιπλασιασμός τηςισοδύναμης ατμοσφαιρικής συγκέντρωσης
ΟΟ^θαέχει ωςαποτέλεσμα μιααύξηση τηςμέσης επιφανειακής θερμοκρασίας
τηςτάξεως των1,5-4 ,5*ε .Ένας τέτοιος διπλασιασμός είναι πιθανό
νασυμβεί τοπρώτο ήμισυ τουεπόμενου αιώνα .
Σύμφωνα μετακλιματικά δεδομένα ,ηεπακόλουθη μεταβολή τωνμέσων
παγκόσμιων κλιματικών συνθηκών θα"ξεπερνά τοφάσμα *τωνκλιμάτων
πουυπήρξαν στοιστορικό παρελθόν καικατά τιςπρόσφατες γεωλογικές
περιόδους.”
Β.2. Ταδιάφορα φαινόμενα πουθασυνοδεύουν τιςενλόγωκλιματικές μεταβολές καιοι
λεπτομερείς κοινωνικοοικονομικές συνέπειες τους δενμπορούν επίτου
παρόντος ναεκτιμηθούν κατά τρόπο αξιόπιστο ,δστόσο ,απότιςπροκα ¬
ταρκτικές εργασίες πουέχουν γίνει σχετικά μετοθέμα αυτό ,προκύπτει
ότι οικίνδυνοι είναι εξαιρετικά υψηλοί καιοιενδεχόμενες άμεσες
καιέμμεσες επιπτώσεις ενδεχομένως διαλυτικές .
8.3 .Πρόσφατα διεθνή γεγονότα έχουν προσδώσε ιέναν επείγοντα χαρακτήρα
στην παγκόσμιας κλίμακας συζήτηση πουδιεξάγεται .επίτουθέματος .
Είναι σαφές πλέον άτιτώρα είναι ηστιγμή γιατηχάραξη βιώσιμων
στρατηγικών ,επιταχύνοντας παράλληλα τηνερευνητική προσπάθεια .

-10-
Γ. ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ ΤΗΙ ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗΣ
Γ.Ο . Ακολουθεί περίληψη τωνκυριότερων συμπερασμάτων τηςπαρούοας έκθεσης .
Τοκεφάλαιο IVτουπαρόντος εγγράφου περιλαμβάνει πλήρη παρουσίαση
των ενλόγω συστάσεων .
Γ.1 . ΗΚοινότητα πρέπει ναεφαρμόσει πλήρως τηούιιβαοη τηςΒιέννης για
τηνπροστασία τουστρώματος όζοντος καιτοπρωτόκολλο τουΜοντοεάχ
γιατιςουσίες πουεξασθενίζουν τοστρώμα όζοντος# καινασυμμετάσχει
ενεργά στην επαναδιαπραγμάτευση τουενλόγω πρωτοκόλλου .
Γ.2 . ΗΚοινότητα πρέπει ναενθαρρύνει τηνέναρξη συζητήσεων γιατιςδυνα ¬
τότητες ιιιας διεθνούς συμφωνίας νιατημελλοντική προστασία της
ατμόσφαιρας ,θαπρέπει ναείναι έτοιμη νασυμβάλει σημαντικά στην
προετοιμασία καιδιαπραγμάτευση μιας τέτοιας συμφωνίας ,ηοποία θα
μπορούσε ναπεριλαμβάνει τονκαθορισμό συγκεκριμένων στόχων για
τονπεριορισμό τωνεκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου ,καθώς καικαθορισμό
τωνμέτρων καιπρογραμμάτων γιατημείωση τωνεκπομπών .
Γ.3 . Κατά συνέπεια , η Επιτροπή θα αναλάβει τηνπρωτο ¬
βουλία τηςέναρξης ενός ουσιαστικού προγράμματος μελέτης τωνεπιλονών
πολιτικής γιατηναξιολόγηση τουεφικτού ,τουκόστους καιτων
αναμενόμενων αποτελεσμάτων ενδεχόμενων μέτρων περιορισμού τωνεκπομπών
αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
Οικύριοι τομείς ενός τέτοιου προγράμματος πρέπει ναείναι :
-προσδιορισμός καιτεχνική αξιολόγηση μέτρων καιτεχνολογιών πουμπορούν
ναμειώσουν τιςεκπομπές αερίων θερμοκηπίου ,
-ανάλυση τωνοικονομικών ,βιομηχανικών ,ενεργειακών ,κοινωνικών και
θεσμικών επιπτώσεων τωνανωτέρω ενδεχόμενων μέτρων καιτεχνολογιών ,
-διαμόρφωση καιαξιολόγηση σεναρίων πολιτικής πουνααναφέρονται ειδι¬
κότερα σεπιθανούς στρατηγικούς στόχους ανωτάτων ορίων εκπομπής €0^,

-11
“δημιουργία ενόςπλαισίου ανάλυσης τωναποφάσεων ,
-6ιαμόριρωοη καιαξιολόγηση πολιτικών προσαρμογής .
Γ..4. ΗΚοινότητα καιτακράτη μέληπρέπει απότώραναλαμβάνουν υπόψη
στιςαποφάσεις τους γιατηχάραξη πολιτικήο (όσοναφορά τηνενέργεια
ήάλλους τομείς πουαφορούν τοενλόγωζήτημα )τοπρόβλημα τωνενδε¬
χόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών πουσυνδέονται μετοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου .
Ηενσωμάτωση τηςπαραμέτρου αυτή θααπέτρεπε υψηλότερες δαπάνες στοτ>
μέλλον .
Γ.5 .Επιπλέον ,.ηΕπιτροπή θααναλάβει άμεση δράση γιατηνενίσχυση
καιεπέκταση τωνπροσπαθειών οτοντομέα τηςεξοικονόμησης ενεργείας ,
τηςβελτίωσης τηςενεργειακής αποτελεσματ ικδτητας ,τηςανάπτυξης νέων
ενεργειακών πηγών ,τηςχρήσης ασφαλούς πυρηνικής τεχνολογίας .
θαπρέπει ναδοθεί υψηλή προτεραιότητα στην επιτάχυνση τηςανάπτυξης
καιπροαγωγής καινοτόμων τεχνολογιών εμπορικής κλίμακας στους ενλόγω ·
τομείς .
Δενυπάρχει αμφιβολία ότι οιενέργειες αυτές δικαιολογούνται τόοο
λόγω ενεργειακών όσοκαιλόγω περιβαλλοντικών αναγκών ,ανεξάρτητα
απότηναβεβαιότητα πουχαρακτηρίζει ορισμένες επιστημονικές πλευρές
τουφαινομένου θερμοκηπίου .
Εξαιρετικά σημαντική θαήταν ηδυνατότητα τηςποσοτικοποίησης ,σε
όρους μείωσης του(^, τωνβελτιώσεων τηςενεργειακής αποτελεομα -
τικδτητας .
Γ.6 . ΗΚοινότητα πρέπει ναυποστηρίξει δραστήρια ερευνητικά προγράμματα
πουαφορούν όλες τιςπλευρές τουφαινομένου θερμοκηπίου καινα
δημιουργήσει νέες ενεργειακές τεχνολογίες πουναέχουν τηδυνατότητα
περιορισμού τωνεκπομπών 002»

-12-
I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE 6REENH0USE ISSUE
What the"greenhouse effect "isinshort
1-Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue/among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere /theaverage surface temperature of
theearth ,which ispresently ofaround 15°C /would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact /the heat balance oftheearth /which receives radiation from
the sunand reflects orre-emits itinto the space ,islargely governed
bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour ,mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere ,isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature ofthe earth .
Moreover ,other substances such ascarbon dioxide (COg),methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (N^O)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from thesunbut to
retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth aslong wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
bytheearth .^
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part ofthe radiant energy
coming from the sun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange oftheglobal thermal
balance ofthe earth .
Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer ")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from theearth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthe lower atmosphere .Anychange
inthe vertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

-13-
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofC02,
CFCs ,CH^,N20,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthelower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthesize ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from thesun ispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairand isthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases temission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times andare still increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO^):
a.Emission sources :
Mostofanthropogenic C02emissions areduetofossil fuels burning
(around 5Gtons *ofcarbon peryear).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
C02world yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution toemission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon peryear .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthelast 25years .
*1Gton =109tons =1000million tons

14-
Theshare ofCt^emissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts oftheworld and its recent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
CO2emissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and asXofworld total
I 1950 I 1965 I 1980I
I Region IMt/y* I X |Mt/y* IX |Mt/y*|X!
INorth America I723 I44,7 I1003 I32,1 |13801 26,7 I
|URSS andEastern Europe I291 I18,0 I750 124,0 |12511 24,2 I
|China I23 I I178 15,7 |439 18,5 I
IWestern Europe I379 I23,4 I643 120,6 !853(16,5 I
|Japan ,Australia I45 I2,8 I137 14,4 (300 15,8 I
(Developing Countries I92 I5,7 I250 18,0 |631(12,2 I
IOthers (worldwide gas I63 I3,9 I163 15,2 131016,0 I
Iflaring ,bunkers ) I II1 1 I I
I
|World total
II I
I1618 I
I I100I
I3126
I1 1
Moo I
I II
5170|100
II
I
I
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide and theglobal carbon cycle "
USD0E/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton .
Thefigures above show thedramatic increase ofCOgemissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
Theshare ofthe total world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period due i.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
Thetrends ofCO2world emission from different fossil fuels forthe
period 1950-1982 areshown innext figure ,(source :USDOE/ER-0239
report referred toabove ):
5000I 1 1 :n
*• -
4000 _ u
3000 _
i2000 -
0r
11000
s800: ï
|600-
U / •/«400r- XO .e*'X“ -
200-f
s•
100L-_ I- 1- 1_
1950 1960 1970 1980
Year2000 L
1000 *-
Thesteep increase ofyearly CO2emissions from oilandnatural gas
has been slowed down oreven reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
useofoil,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently C02
emissions from coal have increased after the first oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel
I11985C02emissions in|
1miIlion tons carbon /y|
Igas 1 807 1
Ioil 1 2189 I
1coal I 2181 I
1gasflaringI 52 I
1TotalI 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988

16-
Percapita COgemissions from fossil fuels fordifferent countries
areshown inthefollowing table ,referred to1982 :
I Country |Percapita CO2emissions (tons |
I Iofcarbon perinhabitant ) |
United States | 4,9
German Dem.Rep. | 4,9
Canada | 4,4
Czechoslovakia | 4,1
Australia | 3,9
Soviet Union | 3,3
Poland | 3,0
Belgium | 3,0
Germany ,Fed.Rep .| 2,9
United Kingdom | 2,5
Netherlands | 2,5
France | 2,0
Japan | 1/9
Italy I 1/5
Spain I 1/4
China I 0/5
Brazil | 0/3
India | 0/1
World average | 1/0
Calculated from :Smith ,I.M. (1988 ):C02andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIACoal Research ,London ,andUN
statistical data
b.Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
COghasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forCOg
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwas anaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
*
1ppm =part permillion =0,0001%

-17-
COjconcentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ,mostly duetofossil fuel burning anddeforestation ,on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans
andvegetation )arenolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore C02stored intheatmosphere .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's):
a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 andCFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0,21 to0,23ppb*and0,37
to0,39 ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofC02,onehasto
note that therate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofC02,around 5-7% peryear,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10,000 higher than C02'ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomore than 100
years ).
1ppb=part perbillion =0,0000001%

-18π
6.Incaseofmethane(CH.):
■■ ■ H
a.Emission sources :
Present man-made emissions ofCH^come mainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH .
cycle isnot well known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(+/- 3)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Lakes 4(+/- 2)
Tundra 3(+/- 2)
Oceans 10(+/- 3)
Termites and other insects 25(+/- 20)
Other 40(+/- 40)
Man-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle ,etc.)75(+/- 35)
Rice paddies 70(+/- 30)
Biomass burning 70(+/- 40)
Natural gasandmining losses 50(+/- 25)
Solid Waste 30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-19-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasincreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1,54 and1,68 ppminthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively ,in1983 ).Average yearly increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1,1% .
Incase ofnitrous oxide (N^O):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions ofNgOaremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial and ocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;therange indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Oceans andestuaries 2.0 (+/- 1.0)
Natural soils 6.5 (+/- 3.5)
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Fossil fuel combustion 4.0 (+/- 1.0)
Biomass burning 0.7(+/- 0.2)
Fertilized soils
Cultivated naturai soils0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
N^Oatmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppbtoabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25% peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that thepresent increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isdue totheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere aresignificant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios maybedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease intheheat quantity which is
trapped inthe lower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes and inparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming and itstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks due toclouds ,vegetation etc .areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forCOg,25%forCFC's,20%forCH^,^0and0j
together .

-21-
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2075 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
theWorld Resources Institute interms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences ofthe recent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy inall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by2025 .Inother studies this
share ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23%,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7%,Edmons =19% .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees theshare ofnuclear inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3% ,1990 =5.4% ,2000 =7.1% .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andinput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas forfurther research andstudy .

22-
TheresultsaresummariEed innext figure .
Commitment toFuture Warming intheWRJ Scenarios
WRJScenarios
U.0L._ _
IIHigh Emissions
«•«[- ЩВмеСж / |'М.
ModestPoUdes i B
rE3SowBuild-Up / ffcj'
°1 I | !ιIρ Iι 11960 2000 ! 2025 I I I2050 I 2075
□AAEJ A AWRJScenarios
flHlghEmissions
HBaseCase
ModestPoUdes
SlowBuild-Up
A A□ÀBEJ11 SlowBufld-Updoesnotreachdouble
COjwithintheforecastperiod
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to1.5to4-Sdegrees centigrade above pre-
industrial temperature .
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to1Jto45degrees centigrade above 1960
temperatures .
Source :KintzerI.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees/
WRI,Washington DC/USA

23-
Energy Policies inIhcWRI Scenarios
But Cue Scenario
•'Business -As-Usual," theinertia ]model ofgrowth and
change intheworld energy industry
•Nopolicies toslow carbon dioxide omissions
•Minimal stimulus toimprove end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forsynfuels devclopment
•Minimal stimulus fordevelopment ofsolar energy
systems
•Nopolicy tolimit tropical deforestation orloencourage
reforestation
•Minimal environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
High Emissions Scénario
•Accelerated growth inenergy useisencouraged
•Nopolicies toslow carbon dtoxide emtssions
•Noshmulus toimprove end-use efficiency•Modest stimulus forincreased useofcoal
•Strong stimulus forsynfuels development
*Nostimulus fordevelopment ofsoiar energy systems
•Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmarginal lands to
agriculture
*Token environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
Modest Polidcs Scénario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forsolar energy
•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecosystem
protection ;more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantial environmental costs imposed onenergy
prices todiscourage solid fueluseandencourage
fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scénario
*Strong emphasis placed onImproving energy efficiency
*Rapid introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
*Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
*High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage solid fueluseandencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rate ofchange •0.8% peryear)
(Fimi Price-S3.15-J4.25 petCJin2005 )
(Finii Pri«-$16.50 perGJin2025 )
($0.30 perGJforcoal ;$1.00 perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -0.2% peryear )
(Rate ofimprovement -0.75% peryear )
(Final Price-S2.75-S3.50 perCJin1995 )
(Final Price-520perGJin2040 )
($0.15 perGJforcoal;$0.50 perC)forsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange •1.0%peryear )
(Final price ■»$15.00 perCJin2025 )
($0.60 perGJforcoal ;$1.50 perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofimprovement ■1.5% peryear )
(Final Price-$12-00 perCJinz00U )
($1.20 perG]forcoal ;$3.00 perGJforsynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
“1 yJ WR1Scénario » /
BHigh Emissions y
▲BaseCase /
JfModestPolicies /
9Slow Buüd-up /s s*
* /
1 /
4 X
(3 11. /
§14‘/
014-/
2. -*
D- ,-–,- 1- 1-Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
WRl Scénario »
BHigh Emissions
▲Base Case
ifModest Policies
9Slow Build-up
1975 2000 2025 2050 2073

24-
Byadifferent approach .Or.R.A.Warrich oftheClimatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,hasrecently tried to
link emission forecasts andlikely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985IN°C )
(B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY ÊQUILIBRIUMUTRANSIENT)~C)CL|MAT,CCHANGE - _7-rd5°_-3_7)_
I e.o--
i (2.5-3.1)___L. «-1■"n
4.0+ IВ- ,
JBESTGUESS :-45,
I l T– -a-(o-6!_
r±:-r+r-'rrtr\-ir-Sv.1,.J...J..'.J..
800 700 '600 J 500 yjfl\l995 200520152025 20:2045
‘EQUIVALENTC02C0NC(ppmv)| jYEAR
! I 2006Х''Ч'ч^ч\ Irx--2026N.I-■2035
--2045\Wmfrrj ? u \
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM1985IN°C)
(C)CLIMATICCHANGE (B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY
r42>>_-__
6.0+
_(2.5^3_1)_
4.0+
.90 B“f
BESTGUESS
vTb0.0-1.12_i_1°/TT(TT-
'a
800700600j500
EQUIVALENTCO,CONC(ppmv)j• I I A1995 2005 2015 2025 20:20-45
\ YEAR
+2005
+2016
+2026
+2035
+2045
У*
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGYEAR
Legend :
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
-T2X istheclimate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent Ct^concentration
-"transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
due tothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothegreenhouse effect .

-25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
Given therange ofscientific uncertainties ,thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The"best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45%.
-The90%confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
uncertainties )thefollowing climate andassociated impacts^ :
-Globa l-Wean Surface Harming (very probable ).Foradoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases ),the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse ,theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice.
-Globa l-Wean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Harming (very probable ).Astheseaiceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner sea icewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasmuch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987);Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA.

-26-
-Suaaer Continental Dryness /Waraing (likely inthe long term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthesoil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods ,and anearlier onset ofthespring -to-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse ,these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ).Astheclimate
warms ,theincreased poleward penetration ofwarm ,moist airshould
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations intheupper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthestratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from the stratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling will lead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they arenotaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )" (WMO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andontherate ofsuch changes should nothide
the fact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

-27-
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"C02andother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the21st century .
-...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
-Over Europe therange ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthesize andrate ofthelatter .Atthesymposium on"C02and
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986);"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthelarge icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28-
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sea level rise are
avai labié .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1/5meter (Toronto Conference /June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding andstorm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Astheclimate warms ,total sea ice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Water Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming mayresult insignificant changes inprecipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell asthe impacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCO^atmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have perseabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29-
into account should trytostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing C02concentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
. .. - (2).summarised below :
"-changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds)(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands .

-30-
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthe level ofcrop certainty and inthecrop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers ,
pesticides andherbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics ,water resources ,hydrology ,pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent ,there isuncertainty about thenature ,themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude ,semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope andNorth-America .
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
(1)USSR using climate data from themodel byHansen etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
due totheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthe local community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal (1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models Iand II",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclimate changes onagriculture given thelarge uncertainties
about theregional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthelack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts arerequired toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects andatCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems andTimber Production
Itisworth noticing that thesame general comment onthedirect
potential effect ofCt^onvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity andforest management ;
.disturbance oftimber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species and local
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32-
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion ofthe range of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct ,
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (the impact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend onthe rate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation andecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled ,both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However ,itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks areduetoclimate andother natural causes orto
overfishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22=Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall ,1863 ;Arrhenius ,1896 ;
Chamberlin ,1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duCO2parun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

-33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques àentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous lesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment quecesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables politiques .
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques surlesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 );
.theEuropean Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract C02
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic
change "(Villach-Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy ,9-13 November 1987 );
.TheBrundtland Commission' sreport
.TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
Thelast event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging atmosphere ,implications forglobal
security "-Toronto ,27-30 june 1988

34-
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized attheinitiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollowup some ofthe conclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries ,United
Nations organizations ,other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations ,thefollowing seem
most important and aretherefore reproduced infull :
Humanity isconducting anenormous ,unintended ,globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel use and theeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security andarealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts will becaused byglobal warming andsealevel
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase the risk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toactnow."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments and Industry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

-35-
l
Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofCO2andother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofC0£isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce COgemissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
Reduce CO2emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly ,the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway,both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inCO2andother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the 10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will not allbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally ,
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inCOgandother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency ,a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade .
Apart from efficiency measures ,thedesired reduction will require
(i)switching tolower C02emittaing fuels ,(ii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;(iii)revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

-36-
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved ,through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements ,nuclear power
could have arole toplay inlowering Ct^emissions .
-Negotiate now onways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage ,review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies ,inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion ,toreduce (i)emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach thecritical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;Ciii )other non-COg greenhouse gases .
-Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
use ofthe product .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations ,
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthe free
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring ,andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law.This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 ,thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands intheFall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 andtheSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference pnSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .

(
-37-
Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund,financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialized countries ,tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
Support thework oftheInter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme ,theInternational Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale arerelated toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining therole of
oceans andglobal heat transport andthe flux ofgreenhouse gases .
Increase significantly thefunding forresearch ,development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy ,ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis ontheneeds ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making useof
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Developments (WCED )report ,"OurCommon Future ",including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts ,monitoring ,research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

-38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement ,theWorking Croupe reports
andthe full Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere :Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )aremade available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception oftheissues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
environment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing thecrucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developments
24.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39-
-theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
-theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.Thesubstance oftheconvention mentioned under 24above (and of
associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse issue isconcerned could
probably consist in :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies andtoreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onallthe aspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions onthewayhowtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects oftheissue .
■ц
Inthis respect ,itisworth stressing theglobal ,complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (seeAnnex ):
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change ,including policy responses toit,andanumber of
other issues ,above allinthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion ,andhence bycountry ,ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect theeffort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

AO-
Thereport oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not,however ,beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomunity asawhole infacing it
Still less should itencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into "winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ."
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures (i.e. measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures maybeclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational level andrequire
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofCt^emissions );
(b)those which may betaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural andforest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

-41
(c)those ofanintermediate character (e.g. decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted /taking account of(a)andofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Measures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.Theabove mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential fortwo reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change and itsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen /when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain asthe range ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial toknow
-which danger /when andwhere /one hastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment /theeconomy /thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore /thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel /andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo.
Only inthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process /bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
and needs .

-42-
Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with thestudy oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with the impacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised intheframe ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially ontheclimatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatological lysignificant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,the cloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources and sinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshel.es .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress onthe impacts which climate change could have
onimportant sectors ofthe European environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and itsimpacts ontheEuropean coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems andcoastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops andforests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased CO^and
climate change ,theimpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects ofthe climate change asregards theprogressive
aridif ication oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,the impact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-43-
(4)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources ,theimpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail andfrost onEuropean
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themelting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthesocial ,economic andpolitical factors conditioning
probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,andlikely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
duetoclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcostline regions of
the sea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded and tohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system anditssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
34.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCO2isconcerned ,theobjective canalso beachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy andtheefficient and
economic useofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification for aspecific energy
R&Dprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar.

-44-
35.Elimination ofCOgatthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
avai lable .
Newdirections forresearch inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCOgproblem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .Thefirst aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced andthepace ofthat
reduction ,theimplementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Environment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
'Climate models arethere toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment and tohelp construct Scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute theimpact ontheeconomic
systems ofthecosts incurred bythe reduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed inthe System Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthe direction defined above foranalysing
energy related CC^emissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
Theaimofsuch research would betoevaluate the'feasibility andthe
costs Ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ohthe energy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.‘Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
'This could mean aiming first atreducing therate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations and inthe longer term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

-45-
38.Theonly wayathand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incaseofCOg,
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothemost
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39.Carbon dioxide (CO^,)emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,C02emissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )end in
theforestry andagricultural sectors asfarasaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests . 'fe'l
Atentative list ofactions aiming at
could bestudied might include :émissions réduction whiç,h
A.Energy related measures forCO.,
There areseveral types oftechnical energy related measures tjiat
could curbiCO^e'missions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse ^o&?atft' 'those measures areequally efficient or iiv :
cost-effective andoneshould make aclear distinction between !the
physical poterttial ofC02émission réduction ofagiven measurè and
itséconomie viability . |
Thefollowing technical measures ,which arelisted without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce C02emissions ^from
carbon-basetf ’fuels : 'V ‘
.o r*■
Energy Etfî'ciency
"■;r'Çfcl
‘!'À *?'•
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficientV'
>: -
h■r
,i ■
light tsulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars,electronic
régula^ons,etc.); : ÿ
f '■* •
‘'*'> i ,
,.<S . *ft-'
V
*;■

-46-
-improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHD,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuel switching toless CO^emitting fuels (therelation ofC02
emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oilandnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased use ofnon carbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCO2atmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO^technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing COgemissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used inthepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuseofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve CO2reduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
B.Measures related toforestry andnatural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest fires ;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry /especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs eaissions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
41.CH^,NgOeaissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
c.Minimize ^0emission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
N^Orelease fromnitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible use ofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-impacts are likely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointhe short term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49-
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover ,even inqualitative and
simple way,alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However ,itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea-level rise andforimpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation measures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Seawalls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
-Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
-Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
45.Examples ofmeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland usetooptimise andtostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management ,such assoil erosion
control ,water management ,etc .
0
Cooperation with developing countries
46.Alltheabove measures ,both asregards preventive action andasregards
planned adaptation ,should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries ,andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation ,conserving wetlands ,coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

-50-
b)bytaking into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which may beaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base line data being gathered for thepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthe greenhouse effect .

-51
IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer andtheMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision ,
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bythe Toronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthefuture protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets for limiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
50.Therefore ,theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy~options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications andimpacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forC02emission ceilings .

-52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
The focus oftheexercise should beonEurope inafirst instance .
-establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabilistically policy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models andtheexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely link.d tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views andrapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem ,theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy ,
involving inparticular developing countries ,towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP and ofOECD and IEA.
52.TheCommunity and itsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors relevant to
theissue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

-53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency improvement ,
development ofnewenergy sources ,useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCO^reductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit COgemissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded intheframe ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries andof
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
envi ronment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaidto
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc.Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
-Thegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment andinbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

-54-
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess the long-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
increased ,inrespect ofthetype ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect maymake more likely .(Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .)Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies oneshould ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothework needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions oftheCommunity
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onalltheaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States andthe
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

-55-
ANNEX
Recent aajor events onthegreenhouse issue

-56-
A.The "VILLACH "Conference (International conference onthe assessment and
the rate ofCO.,andofother greenhouse gases Inclimate variations and
associated impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference was jointly convened byUNEP ,WMOandICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthestatement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic andsocial decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past climat’c data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothefuture .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthenext century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable duetopast
actions ,the rate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models for adoubling ofthe
atmospheric concentration could have profound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea ice."

-57-
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account theresults ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development /environmental
programmes /andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
"Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change andsea level /including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless /theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases :climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels /3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofDr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bytheCEC,DGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric C02andother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthescientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent andcasual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

58
-Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts ,decision
makers andthe scientific community involved intheissue ."
C.Theworkshops bn"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
(Villach ~Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 andBellagio ~Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses forlimiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned irtparagraph 28ofthis document ,the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
"Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
(1)Ozone Protocol Immediate approval andimplementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer (thereby reducing
CFCemissions )*Recommend that itberatified urgently andthat
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
oftheschedule for reductions inCFCs andeventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gaslimitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency ,reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing COg
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along thelines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan ,1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture ,

-59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc.Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason formeasures toreduce deforestation .
4
(A)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial andsocietal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills thatemitmethane ;N20
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc.
Immediate steps tolimit the impact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic andsoil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning for large newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms ofC02equivalence )andthus to
theemissions andforeach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbesetin
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

-60-
(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming maycall for a
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities /
both with regard toglobal climate and itsvariability andsea-level
changes /atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry /aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what new climate observing system activites arerequired for
monitoring thechanging climate ;
-what activities arerequired formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
The IOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea-level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU /UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP)/
which isthefocus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP/astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly /thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme )/initiated byICSU /addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofimportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP andIGBP
should begiven high priority ."

-61
D.TheBrundtland Commission 1sreport
TheWorld Commission onenvironment andDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
"-improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins ,
mechanisms ,andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes andrising sea level ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aim atan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E.TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofCO^in
the atmosphere :
"TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc .
82-1430 /84).

-62-
-having regard tothereport oftheCommittee onEnergy ,Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc .A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth 'saverage
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning ,intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up ,which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator ,will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing outthat theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethescale thereof andthus the
number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
Λ
D.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment oftheworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthechanges taking place ,andthe
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
andtoexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures are directed atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,thelatter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy andinnegotiations with
both national andinternational authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

-63-
3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational useofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls foraworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anend tothedeforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
6.Calls ontheCouncil when drawing upthenewframework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothearea ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon the industrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which are largely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with therelevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthereport of
itscommittee totheCouncil andtheCommission ."

1
Πρόγραμμα εργασίας τηςΕπιτροπής
σχετικά μετηνανάλυση τωνεπιλογών πολιτικής
γιατηναντιμετώπιση τωνκινδύνων πουσυνδέονται
μετο"φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου "
I.ΠΕΡΙΕΧΟΜΕΝΟ ΤΟΥ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΟΣ
Στόχος τουπρογράμματος αυτού είναι ηανάδειξη τωνδεδομένων πουχρειάζονται
για νακαθοριστεί οπιθανός ρόλος της Κοινότητας και τωνκρατών μελών της
όσον αφορά τονπροσδιορισμό καιτηνπροώθηση ,στοκατάλληλο διεθνές πλαίσιο ,
των μέτρων που είναι αναγκαία για την αντιμετώπιση των κινδύνων που
συνδέονται μετοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου .
Προς τοσκοπό αυτό τοπαρόν πρόγραμμα εργασίας διαλαμβάνει ταακόλουθα
θέματα ;
Α.Διαμόρφωση τωνεπιλογών πολιτικής για τηνπρόληψη /περιοριομό τωνεκπομπών
αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
θακαθοριστούν ταμέτρα πουχρειάζονται για ναεπιτευχθούν στρατηγικοί
περιορισμοί τωνεκπομπών τωνδιαφόρων αερίων θερμοκηπίου .Γιακάθε αέριο
θερμοκηπίου ,αυτό συνεπάγεται λεπτομερή εκτίμηση τωνδιαθέσιμων επιλογών
γιατημείωση τωνεκπομπών ,τοεπίπεδο της μείωσης των εκπομπών που
συνεπιφέρει κάθε επιλογή ,καιτηδέσμη τωνμέτρων πουχρειάζονται γιανα
επιτευχθούν στρατηγικές μειώσεις .Οιδυνατότητες πρόληψης /περιορισμού των
εκπομπών θαεξετασθούν γιατους ακόλουθους τομείς :

-2-
-παραγωγή ενεργείας ,
-κατανάλωση ενεργείας (συμπεριλαμβανομένης τηςμεταφοράς ),
“βιομηχανική παραγωγή ,
“χρήση προϊόντων ,
-γεωργικές δραστηριότητες .
Θαχρειαοτεί μια κατάλληλη προσέγγιοη ώοτε ναληφθούν υπόψη οι
ιδιαιτερότητες χωρών ήομάδων χωρών .Ειδικότερα θαχρειαοτεί ναληφθούν
υπόψη ταακόλουθα οημείσ :
-τοεπίπεδο οικονομικής ανάπτυξης ,
~ητρέχουοα ενεργειακή πολιτική ,
-ηγεωγραφία .
Β·Επιπτώοει ςτωνεπιλογών γιατημείωοη τωνεκπομπών .
Οιεπιλογές μείωσης τωνεκπομπών θαεξεταστούν προκειμένου ναεκτιμηθούν
ταακόλουθα σημεία :
-τεχνικές καιβιομηχανικές επιπτώσεις ,
-δημοσιονομικές καιοικονομικές επιπτώσεις /
“πολιτικές ,θεσμικές καικοινωνικές επιπτώσεις .
Γ.Δημιουργία πλαισίου ανάλυσης τωναποφάσεων .
Θαδημιουργηθεί ένα πλαίσιο ταξινόμησης τωνδιαθέσιμων πληροφοριών για
όλες τιςπλευρές τουφαινομένου θερμοκηπίου ,κατά τρόπον ώστε νακαταστεί
δυνατός οπροσδιορισμός τωνενδεχόμενων οφελών (απόπλευράς μείωσης των
κινδύνων κλιματικών μεταβολών ,κλπ.)πουαντιστοιχούν σεδιαφορετικές
επιλογές πολιτικής .Τοπλαίσιο θαλαμβάνει υπόψη :
-τιςεκπομπές καιτημείωση τωνεκπομπών ,
-τιςεπιπτώσεις τηςενλόγω μείωσης ,
-ταδιαθέσιμα επιστημονικά δεδομένα γιαταενδεχόμενα οφέλη εναλλακτικών
ελέγχων τωνεκπομπών .

3
Τοπλαίοιο θαδιαμορφωθεί κατά τρόπον ώστε ναλαμβάνεται υπόψη η
αβεβαιότητα πουαφορά τιςεκμπομπές ,τηναποτελεσματ ικότητα τωνελέγχων ,
τις κλιματικές μεταβολές και τις συνέπειες , και θαεπιτρέπει τον
προσδιορισμό τωνπιθανότερων αποτελεσμάτων τωνδιαφόρων ενεργειών .
Τοπλαίσιο θαεπιτρέπει επίσης την εξέταση των αποτελεσμάτων των
επιβραδυντικών μέτρων ., Διαγράφοντας ,τις βασικές συνιστώσες του
προβλήματος και εντοπίζοντας βασικές παραμέτρους αβεβαιότητας που
επηρεάζουν στομεγαλύτερο βαθμό τααποτελέσματα ,τοπλαίοιο θααποτελέσει
ί,σημαντικό εργαλείο για τηναξιολόγηση τωνμέτρων καιγια τηνεπικέντρωση
των μελλοντικών ερευνών σεθεμελιώδους σημασίας ζητήματα προς λήψη
αποφάσεων .
Δ...Αξιολόγηση των ενδεχόμενων θετικών αποτελεσμάτων διαφόρων επιλογών
πολιτικής μετηβοήθεια ενός πλαισίου ανάλυσης αποφάσεων και κατάρτιση
σεναρίων για την εξέλιξη του κλίματος και τις σχετικές επιπτώσεις ως
αποτέλεσμα τηςυλοποίησης επιλογών γιατονέλεγχο τωνεκμπομπών .
Το πλαίσιο θα χρησιμοποιηθεί για τον προσδιορισμό των πιθανών
αποτελεσμάτων των εναλλακτικών επιλογών μείωσης των εκμπομπών ,και το
χρονοδιάγραμμα εφαρμογής τους (σενάρια ). θαπροσδιορίζει επίσης τις
σχετικές πιθανότητες επίτευξης θετικών αποτελεσμάτων .
Ε.Προσδιορισμός και αξιολόγηση των μέτρων εφαρμογής που χρειάζονται στο
πλαίσιο των διαφόρων σεναρίων που έχουν καταρτιστεί _ βάσει της
προηγούμενης παραγράφου Δ.
Ακόμη και μετην εφαρμογή πολιτικής ελέγχου των εκπομπών ,παραμένουν
κίνδυνοι πουσυνδέονται μετιςπαρελθούσες καιτιςμελλοντικές εκμπομπές
στην ατμόσφαιρα .Ωςεκτούτου ,θαχρειαστεί ναπροσδιοριστούν μέτρα
προσαρμογής (δηλ .μέτρα γιατηνπροστασία τωνανθρώπων ,τηςιδιοκτησίας
και της γεωργίας ), για την αντιμετώπιση των κινδύνων αυτών .θα
προσδιοριστεί ηέκταση και θαεντοπιστούν γεωγραφικά οιβασικοί
παραμένοντες κίνδυνοι και 6ααξιολογηθούν οιεπιπτώσεις από πλευράς
κόστους καιχρόνου από τηλήψη διαφόρων μέτρων προσαρμογής .Ταμέτρα
προσαρμογής θαχρειαστούν ιεράρχηση ,ώστε ναεξασφαλιστεί ημέγιστη
δυνατή μείωση τωνπαραμενόντων κινδύνων μετους διαθέσιμους πόρους ,και
ώστε ηπροσοχή ναεπικεντρωθεί σεβασικούς τομείς σπουδα ιότητας .

4
II-ΛΕΠΤΟΜΕΡΗΣ ΚΑΤΑΛΟΓΟΣ ΔΡΑΣΤΗΡΙΟΤΗΤΩΝ
Ηυλοποίηση τουπρογράμματος αυτού θααπαιτήσει μεταξύ άλλων και τις
ακόλουθες δραστηριότητες :
Λ■Πρόβλεψη εκπομπών καιεπιλογές γιατημείωση τωνεκπομπών .
ιΚατάρτιση προβλέψεων γιατιςεκπομπές κάθε αερίου θερμοκηπίου .
Οιεκπομπές αυτές πρέπει νααναλύονται (α)κατά περιοχή (β)ανά
πολιτικές ,στρατηγικές καιοικονομικές ομάδες .
ίϊ0καθορισμός παραγόντων (εκτός τηςάσκησης ελέγχου )πουείναι δυνατό
ναεπηρεάσουν τιςμελλοντικές εκπομπές .Εκτίμηση τουκατά πόσο είναι
πιθανοί καιανάπτυξη εναλλακτικών σεναρίων εκπομπών .
ίίίΚαθορισμός τωνδιαθέσιμων επιλογών ελέγχου τωνεκπομπών γιακάδε
αέριο θερμοκηπίου .Εκτίμηση τηςέκτασης τωνενδεχόμενων μειώσει:· ,στο
πλαίσιο τωνδιαφόρων σεναρίων εκπομπής .
Β.Εκτίμηση τωνεπιπτώσεων τωνεπιλογών ελέγχου τωνεκπομπών
ίΑξιολόγηση τηςπρακτ ικότητας ,τουκόστους καιτουχρονοδιαγράμματος
εψαρμογής γιακαθένα τωνμέτρων περιορισμού τωνεκπομπών .
ΙίΕκτίμηση τωνκοινωνικών καιοικονομικών επιπτώσεων .
ίίϊΕκτίμηση των επιπτώσεων από πλευράς κατανομής (α)σεμεμονωμένες
χώρες , (β)μεταξύ χωρών , (γ)μεταξύ πολιτικών και στρατηγικών
ομάδων ,
Γ.Δημιουργία πλαισίου για τη ουστηματοποίηοη των πληροφοριών που
προκύπτουν κατά τηδιάρκεια τουπρογράμματος εργασίας

5
Τοπλαίσιο πρέπει :
-να προβάλλει τις συνέπειες των εναλλακτικών μέτρων ,
συμπεριλαμβανομένων τουκόστους και τωνενδεχόμενων οφελών ,
-ναηροβάλλε ;τις επιπτώσεις από τηλήψη μέτρων σεδιαφορετικές
χρονικές επιλογές ,
-ναπροβάλλει την εγκυρότητα πιθανών αποφάσεων (για τις στρατηγικές
ελέγχου ήτις στρατηγικές προσαρμογής ), λαμβάνοντας υπόψη τις
αβεβαιότητες όσον αφορά τις προβλέψεις και ταδιαθέσιμα επιστημονικά
δεδομένα ,
■-ναπροβάλλει την περαιτέρω έρευνα πουαπαιτείται για τηστήρ ·ξητων
ληπτέων αποφάσεων .
Δ.Αξιολόγηση τωνστρατηγικών ελέγχου τωνεκπομπών
ίΚαθορισμός των πιθανών θετικών αποτελεσμάτων πουθαπροέκυπταν από
τιςστρατηγικές ελέγχου τωνεκπομπών .Τοέργο αυτό θααπαιτήσει μία
κριτική ανασκόπηση των μηχανισμών που συνδέουν τις συγκεντρώσεις
αερίων θερμοκηπίων μετηνπλανητική θέρμανση ,μειδιαίτερη αναφορά
σεσυστήματα ανάδρασης ,ταχρονοδιαγράμματα και τιςεπιπτώσεις για
ταπεριφερειακά κλίματα .
ΐΐΜεβάση την κριτική ανασκόπηση ,προετοιμασία μιας εκτίμησης των
πιθανοτήτων των εναλλακτικών προβλέψεων και τωνεπιπτώοεών τους .Η
εργασία αυτή πρέπει νασυστηματοποιεί τις απόψεις των κυριότερων
εμπειρογνωμόνων και νακρίνει τησκοπιμότητα του συγκεκριμένου
καθορισμού πιθανοτήτων που νααντανακλούν την αβεβαιότητα των
διαφόρων σεναρίων .
ίιϊΜεβάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές ,και τις πληροφορίες για τους
περιορισμούς των εκπομπών (Α)και τις επιπτώσεις τους (Β), το
πλαίσιο αποφάσεων πουαναφέρεται στοσημείο Γθαχρησιμοποιηθεί για
νααξιολογηθούν τοκόστος ,ταοφέλη και οιάλλες επιπτώσεις των
εναλλακτικών επιλογών ελέγχου τωνεκπομπών .

6
Η.Αξιολόγηση τωνμέτρων προσαρμο γής
ίΑνασκόπηση των επ ιπτώσεων των διαφόρων επιπέδων θέρμανσης στην
υποδομή καιτονανεφοδιασμό τηςΕυρώπης σετρόφιμα *εντοπισμός άλλων
βασικών επιπτώσεων .Αξιολόγηση τωνεπιπτώσεων σεάλλες πολιτικέ ;και
οικονομικές ομάδες κρατών .
ιιΑνασκόπηση των επιλογών για την αντιμετώπιση των ενδεχόμενων
μεταβολών (ι)στην Ευρώπη (π.χ ,νέες καλλιέργειες ,μεταβολή
πρακτικών προγραμματισμού κλπ.).
ϊίΐΜεβάση τηναξιολόγηση υπό (Δ)και τοπλαίσιο πουαναφέρεται υπό
(Γ), εκτίμηση τουκόστους και των οφελών από εναλλακτικά μέτρα
προσαρμογής "εκτίμηση των πιθανοτήτων νααποδειχθσύν αποτελεσματικά
ταενλόγω μέτρα προσαρμογής ,λαμβανομένων υπόψη τωνπροβλεπόμενων
επ ιπτώσεων .
III .ΚΑΤΕΥΘΥΝΤΗΡΙΕΣ ΓΡΑΜΜΕΣ ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΥΛΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΤΟΥ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΟΣ
Α.Κατά την εκτέλεση του προγράμματος αυτού ηΕπιτροπή θαλάβει πλήρως
υπόψη τιςάλλες σχετικές δραστηριότητες ,τόσο σεκοινοτική όσοκαισε
παγκόσμια κλίμακα ,όπως :
-τοερευνητικό πρόγραμμα ΕΚγια την κλιματολογία και τους φυσικούς
κινδύνους ,
-τααποτελέσματα πρόσφατων διεθνών συνεδρίων (όπως τοσυνέδριο γιατη
Μεταβαλλόμενη Ατμόσφαιρα ,Τορόντο ,Ιούνιος '88),
-τηνομάδα εργασίας υΝΕΡ /ΜΜΟγιατημεταβολή τουκλίματος ,
κλπ .
Προς τοσκοπό αυτό ηΕπιτροπή θαδημιουργήσει τοκατάλληλο πλαίσιο
συνεργασίας μετους αρμόδιους οργανισμούς πουενέχονται σετέτοιες
δραστηριότητες .

•*7
Β.Επ ικουρούμενη απότηνεπιτροπή πουαναφέρεται στοάρθρο 1τηςαπόφοιτης ,
ηΕπιτροπή Οακαθορίσει τιςδιαδικασίες καιτιςσυγκεκριμένες ράοε<ς
τουενλόγω προγράμματος εργασίας ,καθώς καιτιςπληροφορίες που θα
πρέπει ναπαράσχουν τακράτη μέλη .
Οιαρμόδιοι οργανισμοί και οικυβερνητικές υπηρεσίες των κρατών μ:.\ών
θασυνδεθούν μετοπρόγραμμα εργασίας μέσω τηςανωτέρω επιτροπής .
IV.Χρηματοδότηση τουπρογράμματος
Οιπόροι πουυπολογίζονται ωςαναγκαίοι για τηνεφαρμογή του
προγράμματος ανέρχονται σε6εκατ .ΕΘΙΙ .

Σχέδιο
ίΡηφισμα τουΣυμβουλίου γιατοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και
την Κοινότητα
ΤοΣυμβούλιοτωνΕυρωπαϊκώνΚοινοτήτων,
Έχοντας υπόψη :
τησυνθήκη γιατηνίδρυση τηςΕυρωπαϊκής Οικονομικής Κοινότητας ,
τοσχέδιο ψηφίσματος πουυπέβαλε ηΕπιτροπή ,
Εκτιμώντας :
ότιησυνθήκη γιατηνίδρυση τηςΕυρωπαϊκής Οικονομικής Κοινότητας ,όπως
τροποποιήθηκε απότηνΕνιαία Ευρωπαϊκή Πράξη προβλέπει τηδιαμόρφωση και
εφαρμογή μιας κοινοτικής πολιτικής γιατοπεριβάλλον καιότιηίδια η
συνθήκη προβλέπει επίσης ότικατά τηνεπεξεργασία τηςδράσης τηςστον
τομέα αυτόν ,ηΚοινότητα λαμβάνει υπόψη ταδιαθέσιμα επιστημονικά και
τεχνικά δεδομένα και ταπλεονεκτήματα καιτιςεπιβαρύνσεις πουμπορούν
ναπροκόψουν από τηδράση ήτηναπουσία δράσης ,
ότιτοπαρόν ψήφισμα αντανακλά τιςσκέψεις πουδιατυπώθηκαν στο ψήφι ¬
σματης19ης Οκτωβρίου 1987 σχετικά μετοπρόγραμμα δράσης τωνΕυρω ¬
παϊκών Κοινοτήτων σεθέματα περιβάλλοντος (1)δηλαδή απότησκοπιμό ¬
τητα τηςανάληψης δράσης σεκατάλληλο επίπεδο και τηνανάγκη συντονι ¬
σμού τωνδραστηριοτήτων σεδιεθνές επίπεδο ,τηςστάθμισης τωνπλεονε ¬
κτημάτων καιεπιβαρύνσεων τωνμελετώμενων ενεργειών καιτηςκατάλληλης
τεχνικής καιπολιτικής προετοιμασίας τηςενλόγω δράσης ,
ότιταδιαθέσιμα επιστημονικά δεδομένα ,καιειδικότερα τααποτελέσματα
απόταΚοινοτικά Προγράμματα Περιβαλλοντικής Έρευνας ,δείχνουν ότι
ησύνθεση τηςατμόσφαιρας μεταβάλλεται σημαντικά απόανθρώπινες δρα¬
στηριότητες και,σύμφωνα μεταδιαθέσιμα κλιματικά μοντέλα ,τογεγονός
αυτό μπορεί τελικά νασυνεπιφέρει ,μέσω τουλεγάμενου "φαινομένου
θερμοκηπίου ",κλιματικές μεταβολές πουσυνεπάγονται σημαντικές επι¬
πτώσεις στοπεριβάλλον ,στους ανθρώπους καιτιςδραστηριότητές τους ,
ότι,δεδομένης τηςφύσης καιτουμεγέθους τωνκινδύνων πουσυνεπάγε ¬
ταιτοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου είναι επείγον ναεξεταστούν οιδυνατό ¬
τητες δράσης μεστόχο τηνπρόληψη ήτωνπεριορισμό τωνκινδύνων αυτών ,
(1)ΕΕαριθ .Ο328της7.12.1987 ,σ.1.

-2-
ότισταπρόσφατα διεθνή συνέδρια έχει επιτευχθεί ευρύτατη συναίνεση για
τηνανάγκη τηςεπείγουσας εξέτασης μέτρων γιατονπεριορισμό τωνεκπο ^
μπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου ,
ότι,δεδομένης τηςσυνθετότητας τουφαινομένου θερμοκηπίου καιτωνπο¬
λυάριθμων καιεκτεταμένων συνεπειών τόσο τουενλόγω φαινομένου όσο
καιτωνμέτρων πρόληψης καιπεριορισμού τωνεπιπτώσεών του,απαιτείται
προσεκτική εκτωνπροτέρων εξέταση τωνπιθανών επιλογών πολιτικής ,η
οποία θαέπρεπε ναγίνει μεκατάλληλες μεθοδολογίες ,στιςοποίες λαμβά -
νονται κυρίως υπόψη κατά τρόπο επαρκή οιαβεβαιότητες πουπαραμένουν
όσον αφορά πολλές πλευρές τουενλόγω θέματος ,
ότιέχει εξαιρετική σημασία τοναμπορεί ηΚοινότητα καιτακράτη μέ¬
λητηςνασυμβάλουν καθοριστικά στηδιαμόρφωση καιεπεξεργασία ;των
αποφάσεων πολιτικής πουενδεχομένως ναληφθούν στακατάλληλα διεθνή
πλαίσια προκειμένου νααναληφθούν οιαποτελεσματικότερες ενέργειες
κατά τωνκινδύνων κλιματικών μεταβολών ,
εγκρίνει τηνανακοίνωση τηςΕπιτροπής "τοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και
ηΚοινότητα "καιυιοθετεί τακυριότερα συμπεράσματα καισυστάσεις της,
δηλώνει ότιηΚοινότητα οφείλει ναδώσει μεγαλύτερη προσοχή στους
κινδύνους ενδεχόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών πουσυνεπάγεται τοφαινό ¬
μενο θερμοκηπίου καιοφείλει νασυμβάλει ουσιαστικά στην προαγωγή
τουπροβληματισμού καιτηςσυζήτησης γύρω απότπθανά μέτρα αντιμετώ ¬
πισης των λόγω κινδύνων ,
προσυπογράφει γηνπρωτοβουλία τηςΕπιτροπής γιατηνέναρξη προγράμμα ¬
τοςεργασίας σχετικά μετηναξιολόγηση τωνεπιλογών πολιτικής γιατηναντιμε ¬
τώπιση τωνκινδύνων πουσυνδέονται μετοφαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και
εγκρίνει τους στόκους τουπρογράμματος αυτού ,
καλεί τακράτη μέλη νασυνεργαστούν ενεργά μετην Επιτροπή γιατην
εκτέλεση τουανωτέρω προγράμματος εργασίας καινασυντονίσουν στο
πλαίσιο αυτό τιςσχετικές δραστηριότητές τους όσον αφορά τοφαινό ¬
μενο θερμοκηπ ίομ,
καλεί τηνΕπιτροπή ναυποβάλει στοΣυμβούλιο καιτοΕυρωπαϊκό Κοι
νοβούλια έκθεση σταμέσα τομ 1990και,στατέλη του1991 ,τελική
έκθεση γιατααποτελέσματα τουενλόγω προγράμματος εργασίας καιτα
προκύψαντα συμπεράσματα .

COMISIÓN DELASCOMUNIDADES EUROPEAS
COM (88)656 FiLan
Comunicación deLaComisión alConsejo
"ELPROBLEMA DEL EFECTO INVERNADERO YLACOMUNIDAD "
ÆyA \
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“-i SL. ' I
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Comunicación delaComisión alConsejo
"ELPROBLEMA DELEFECTO INVERNADERO YLACOMUNIDAD "

ÍNDICE
Apartado Página
RESUMEN EJECUTIVO YCONCLUSIONES/·
A-C 4-11
I.INTRODUCCIÓN ALEFECTO INVERNADERO
Elefecto Invernadero enpocas palabras 1-2 12-13
Losgases deinvernadero :fuentes deemisión y
evolución desuconcentración enlaatmósfera 3-10 13-20
Posibles consecuencias sobre elclima delaumento
delaconcentración degases deinvernadero 11-13 20-27
Posibles repercusiones deloscambios climáticos 14-21 27-32
II.ELCONTEXTO INTERNACIONAL .PERSPECTIVAS
Introducción 22 32-33
Laconferencia mundial de"Cambios enlaAtmósfera "
(Toronto ,27a30dejunio de1988 )23 33-38
Posibles avances enelfuturo 24-28 38-40
III .ANÁLISIS DELASMEDIDAS POSIBLES
Introducción 29-31 40-41
Actividades deInvestigación 32-36 42-44
Medidas preventivas 37-42 44-48

Apartado Página-3-
Adaptación planificada
Cooperación con lospaíses endesarrollo
IV.CONCLUSIONES DELACOMISIÓN43-45 48-49
46* 49-50
47-58 51-54
ANEXO
LaConferencia "Villach "
(Villach ,Austria ,9al15deoctubre de1985 )
ElSimposio delaCEEsobre el"COgyotros gases
deinvernadero "
(Bruselas ,3a5denoviembre de1986 )
Losseminarios sobre "Estrategias deadaptación a
loscambios climáticos "(Villach ,Austria ,28de
septiembre a2deoctubre yBellagio ,Italia ,9
a13denoviembre de1987 ).
Elinforme delaComisiôn BrundtlandA 56
B 57
C 58-60
D 61
Laresolución delParlamento Europeo E 62

RESUMEN EJECUTIVO YCONCLUSIONES
'A.RESUMEN
A.1 .Introducc16n- ^
EL19dejulio de1988 ,laComisión decidió crear ungrupo formado por
personas dedistintos servicios para que presentase ,amediados de
noviembre del mismo ano,unconjunto deideas preliminares acerca de
posibles medidas comunitarias contra elefecto invernadero .
Elobjetivo delpresente documento ,basado eneltrabajo dedicho grupo ,
esofrecer unavisión general del tema ypresentar susconclusiones y
recomendaciones referentes al trabajo que se ha de emprender
inmediatamente ,alasmedidas que hay que adoptar urgentemente yal
papel quepuede desempeñar laComunidad eneldebate internacional deun
tema tancomplejo .
A.2.Elefecto invernadero
A.2.1 .Las condiciones climáticas actuales de laTierra vienen determinadas
engran proporción por lacomposición delaatmósfera .Elvapor de
agua ,eldióxido decarbono (CO^), elmetano (CH^),elóxido nitroso
(NjO), elozono (0j>, y,desde hace poco , los CFC
(clorof luorocarbonos ),absorben parte delos rayos infrarrojos que
emite laTierra para compensar losquerecibe delsol ylosalmacenan
enlaatmósfera .
A.2.2.Elhombre está alterando lacomposición delaatmósfera aunritmo sin
precedentes .Laconcentración delosllamados "gases deinvernadero "
esté aumentando debido alainterferencia delaactividad humana en
losciclos biogeoquimi eos dedichas sustancias .Laenvergadura de
estas alteraciones estal que puede suponer importantes cambios
climáticos .
Actualmente sabemos queelequilibrio térmico delaTierra está siendo
modificado ,loque vaaproducir unfenómeno decalentamiento y
posiblemente cambios climáticos relacionados con elmismo ,según la
importancia deesta alteración .

-5-
A.2.3.Elgasdeinvernadero másabundante eselC0?,emitido sobre todopor
Lacombustión decombustibles fósiles (5gigatoneladas decarbono al
año),demadera ypor ladescomposición delabiomasa forestal
producida porladespoblación forestal (entre 0,5y2gijptoneladas de
carbono alaño).
ElC(>2es,enefecto ,lacausa demásdel50Xdelefecto Invernadero .
Otro 25% del fenómeno sepuede atribuir aloa CFC empleados en
múltiples usos como aerosoles ,aire acondicionado ,disolventes ,
material deembalaje yempaquetado ,etc .Elresto selepuede achacar
al.metano (CH^>procedente delganado ,campos dearroz ,explotaciones
degasnatural ,combustión inadecuada debiomasa ycarbón ;alóxido
nitroso (^0)producido por lacombustión decombustibles fósiles y
por losabonos nitrogenados yalozono troposférico procedente delos
procesos fotoquimicos delaatmósfera contaminada .Lasemisiones de
"gases deinvernadero "hanregistrado unaumento considerable durante
lasúltimas décadas .
A.2.4.Sinos fijamos enlaevolución delostipos climáticos mundiales ,
podemos deducir que laTierra vaasersometida aunascenso delas
temperaturas medias desuperficie queoscilará entre 1,5 y4,5° C,
debido aladuplicación delequivalente delaconcentración degases
deinvernadero enlaerapre-industr1al .Alritmo actual ,seespera
queeste fenómeno sedesencadene antes delaño2050 .
A,2.5.Lospatrones climáticos actuales nopueden ofrecer unaevidencia clara
yfidedigna delasposibles alteraciones climáticas derivadas delya
mencionado aumento deLastemperaturas delasuperficie delaTierra .
Según estimaciones aproximadas ,elaumento detemperatura enEuropa
podría sersuperior alamedia mundial .
A.2.6.Lasrepercusiones indirectas detales cambios climáticos sepodrían
resumir delmodo siguiente :
-subida delnivel delmar (entre 30cmy4,5m.correspondientes aun
calentamiento entre 1,5y4,5° C);
-disminución delacantidad dehielo marino ;
-disminución delosrecursos acuáticos enalgunas zonas ;
-alteraciones delaproductividad agraria ;
-repercusiones enlasalud humana yenlossistemas ecológicos .
*Gigatonelada «1D9t*1.000 millones detoneladas .

-6“
A.3.ELcontexto Internacional .Perspectivas
»
A.3.1.EnLa"Conferencia Internacional sobre laevaluación delpapel delCOg
yotros gases deinvernadero enlasalteraciones climáticas ysus
repercusiones "(ViLlach ,9a15deoctubre de1985 )sCalcanzó un
consenso científico acerca de los hechos básicos del efecto
invernadero .
A.3.2.Las conclusiones delaConferencia deVillach seampliaron enun
simposio delaCEEque secelebró en8ruselas (del3al5danoviembre
de1,986); "ElCOg yotros gases deinvernadero :repercusiones
climáticas yderivadas ",yenunseminario enBellagio (9al13de
noviembre de1987 ): "Estrategias deadaptación alos cambios
climáticos ".
A.3.3.También laComisión Brundtland incluyó eltema ensuprograma de
trabajo .Deacuerdo consusrecomendaciones secelebró enToronto ,del
27al30dejunio ,una "Conferencia mundial sobre loscambios enla
atmósfera ysusconsecuencias para laseguridad mundial ". Enella se
aconsejaron ,entre otras ,lassiguientes medidas :
-Ratificar elProtocolo deMontreal sobre sustancias quedestruyen la
capa deozono .ElProtocolo debería ser revisado en1990 para
garantizar laeliminación casi total de las emisiones deCFC
totalmente halogenados para elaño2000 ;
-Adoptar políticas energéticas quetiendan areducir lasemisiones de
COgydeotros gases traza para disminuir eLriesgo decalentamiento
delatierra ;
*Deaquí alaño2005 ,unobjetivo dealcance mundial delospaíses
industrializados debería serreducir aproximadamente un20X delas
emisiones deCOgydeotros gases deInvernadero .
-Empezar lospreparativos para unaconvención mundial .
-Crear unFondo Mundial delaAtmósfera .
A.3.4.Uno de los resultados acorto plazo de estas actividades
internacionales eselposible Inicio delproceso depreparación ,yaer»
1989 ,deunacuerdo sobre elefecto Invernadero que puede Incluir
protocolos para limitar lasemisiones degases deinvernadero .

-7-
A.3.5.Entre los próximos acontecimientos que van adesembocar endicho
acuerdo ,hayquemencionar sobre todo :
-elseminario internacional sobre derecho ypolítica que sehade
celebrar enOttawa aprincipios de1989 ;
-unaconferencia política dealto nivel ,queserá organizada enel
otoño de1989 por elMinisterio deMedio Ambiente delosPaíses
Bajos ;
-laSegunda Conferencia Mundial delclima (Ginebra ,junio de1990);
-laConferencia Intergubernamental deDesarrollo en1992 ,quepuede
ser elacontecimiento culminante .
A.A. PosibLes medidas
A.4.1 .Las medidas para luchar contra elefecto invernadero deben revestir
carácter preventivo y/odeadaptación .
A.4.2.Medidas preventivas sonaquéllas quetratan defrenar lasemisiones de
gases deinvernadero para asíreducir losefectos previstos .
Enelcaso delCO^, lossectores enlosquehayqueactuar con
prioridad sonelenergético yLasilvicultura enlaszonas tropicales .
Algunos ejemplos demedidas enelsector energético que pueden
contribuir alimitar lasemisiones deCO^:
-aumentar elrendimiento energético (tanto enLavertiente de la
oferta como enladelademanda );
-pasar autilizar combustibles que contengan menos carbono (por
ejemplo ,gasnatural enlug8r decarbón );
-fomentar eluso defuentes deenergía renovables yelusorentable
debiomasa ;
-fomentar elusodeenergía nuclear segura .
Elimpulso alasnuevas tecnologías delaenergía como apoyo deestas
medidas reviste unaespecial importancia .
Alargo plazo ,lossitemaB energéticos nobasados enelcarbono pueden
contribuir significativamente afrenar lasemisiones deCOg.

-8-
Está claro quenotodas Lasmedidas mencionadas tienen elmismo grado
deeficacia ;además ,espreciso calcular suviabilidad económica .
Lasmedidas enelámbito delasilvicultura deberían ^orientarse a
contrarrestar las actuales tendencias dedespoblación forestal ,
concretamente enlaszonas tropicales .Esto supondría fomentar eluso
desustitutos delamadera ,combustible deprimer orden endichas
zonas ,eimpulsar prácticas agrícolas racionales ,para que la
expansión agrícola noimplique laquema degrandes extensiones para
obtener terrenos decultivo .
A.4.3 .Esmásdifícil dictar medidas para reducir Lasemisiones degaBes de
invernadero como elCH^yelN^O,debido alafalta deconocimientos
enloreferente alaemisión deestas sustancias .
Sería necesario introducir medidas como lassiguientes :
■reducir almínimo las pérdidas deCH .durante laextracción ,el4
transporte yelusodegasnatural ;
-reducir almínimo lasemisiones deCH^delosvertederos ;
-reducir almínimo laspérdidas deN^Odurante Lacombustión de
combustibles sóLidos ;
-estudiar laposibilidad demejorar las técnicas degestión del
ganado ,delos campos dearroz ydeLaszonas pantanosas ,para
reducir lasemisiones deCH^;
-estudiar laposibilidad deracionalizar eluso deabonos para
reducir lasemisiones deN^Oprocedentes delosabonos nitrogenados .
A.4.4.Enloquerespecta alosCFC,debería serviable latotal eliminación
delasemisiones deCFCpara elaño2DQ0 ,limitando suproducción ,
recuperando ,reciclando odestruyendo losCFCcontenidos enproductos
yaexistentes .
A.4.5.Pueden ser necesarias ciertas medidas deadaptación (lasdestinadas a
prevenir oapaliar losperjuicios causados por loscambios climáticos
ylosefectos derivados delosmismos )para hacer frente asituaciones
queresulten inevitables apesar delasmedidas preventivas .
Aestas alturas noesposible precisar quémedidas deadaptación serán
necesarias en laComunidad debido alafalta deuna evaluación local
fidedigna delasposibles repercusiones .

-9-
Engeneral ,lasmedidas deadaptación relativas alasubida delnivel
delmarconstarán de:construcción debarreras contra lasmareas ylas
inundaciones ,programas nacionales deseguros contra inundaciones ,
construcción depantanos (paracombatir elaumento del£salinidad ),
abandono dezonas desarrolladas situadas enterrenos bajos ,nueva
ubicación delaspoblaciones enlugares noexpuestos ariesgos y
protección delosecosistemas costeros .
Esnecesario profundizar más enlasinvestigaciones para establecer
posibles medidas enotros sectores como laagricultura yla
silvicultura .
B. CONCLUSIONES SOBRE EL ESTA60 DE LOS CONOCIMIENTOS ACERCA &E LA
PROBLEMÁTICA DELEFECTO INVERNADERO
B.1 .Lasactividades del ser humano están alterando demodo significativo la
composición delaatmósfera terrestre .
Basándose en laevolución de los tipos climáticos mundiales ,los
cientiflcos han llegado alaconclusión deque sisedobla el
equivalente delaconcentración atmosférica deCC^, seproducirá un
aumento delatemperatura media deLasuperficie queoscilará entre 1,5
y4,5°C .Este fenómeno puede suceder amediados delpróximo siglo .
Sinos fiamos delosdatos climáticos ,elresultado delcambio enlas
condiciones climáticas medias mundiales quedará "fuera delagama de
climas quehaexistido durante elpasado histórico ydurante laseras
geológicas recientes ".
B.2 .Eneste momento ,nosepueden calcular exactamente lasdistintas
repercusiones deestas alteraciones climáticas ysus consecuencias
socio-económicas .Sinembargo ,todas lasinvestigaciones incipientes
realizadas alrespecto revelan laexistencia deriesgos alarmantes yde
unas posibles consecuencias directas eIndirectas muyperjudiciales .
B.3 .Enlos recientes encuentros internacionales se lehaotorgado un
carácter urgente aldebate mundial delproblema .Haquedado muyclaro
quehallegado elmomento deponer enpráctica soluciones viables al
tiempo queseacelera elritmo delasinvestigaciones .

-10-
c.CONCLUSIONES DELACOMISIÔN
C.O. Acontinuación seresumen Lasprincipales conclusiones deeste informe .
Enelcapitulo IVdeeste documento seofrece una descripción más
detallada delasmismas .
C.1 .LaComunidad deberia aplicar elConvenio deViena paré laprotección de
lacapa deozono yetProtocolo deMontreal sobre sustancias que
destruyen lacapa deozono ,adem|s departicipar deforma activa enla
negociación dedicho Protocolo .
C.2 .LaComunidad deberla impulsar elInicio dedebates sobre laposibilidad
deunacuerdo internacional para lafutura protección delaatmósfera .
Debería hallarse encondiciones decontribuir demodo significativo ala
preparación yalanegociación deunacuerdo detales características
quepodría fijar objetivos precisos para limitar lasemisiones degases
deInvernadero yestablecer medidas yprogramas dereducción delas
mismas .
C.3 .Por lotanto ,laComunidad vaatomar lainiciativa delanzar un
programa intensivo deestudio delasposibilidades existentes donde se
evalúe laviabilidad ,los costes ylosposibles resultados delas
distintas medidas para limitar lasemisiones degases deinvernadero .
Elprograma debería constar devarias partes esenciales :
-creación yevaluación técnica demedidas ytecnologías destinadas a
disminuir lasemisiones degases deinvernadero ;
-análisis delasrepercusiones económicas ,industriales ,sociales e
institucionales dedichas medidas ytecnologías ;
-esquemas deactuación ,estructuración yevaluación especialmente
referidos alosposibles objetivos estratégicos para fijar untope a
laemisión deCC^.

11
-marco deanálisis dedecisiones ;
-crear yponderar medidas deadaptación .
C.4.LaComunidad ysusEstados miembros deberían ,apartir deahora ,
Incorporar asus políticas (energéticas odecualquier otro sector
relacionado con este tema )elproblema de los posibles cambios
climáticos producidos por elefecto invernadero .Unenfoque preventivo
i*
delasunto puede evitar costes máselevados enelfuturo .
C.5 .Sedeberían tomar másdecisiones urgentes para reforzar yaumentar los
esfuerzos yaexistentes para ahorrar energía ,mejorar elrendimiento
energético ,desarrollar nuevas fuentes deenergía einvestigar enel
campo delatecnología nuclear segura .
Debería dársele uncarácter prioritario alrápido desarrollo yal
fomento detécnicas comerciales innovadoras enestos sectores .
Nocabe duda dequetales medidas están más quejustificadas debido a
lasnecesidades energéticas ymedioambientales ,apesar delafalta de
conocimientos queaúnrodea aalgunos aspectos científicos delfenómeno .
Laposibilidad devalorar lasmejoras delrendimiento energético enlo
que serefiere aladisminución del C02resulta especialmente
importante .
C.6 .LaComunidad deberla apoyar programas intensivos deinvestigación de
todos losaspectos relacionados con elefecto deinvernadero ylanzar
nuevas tecnologías energéticas capaces dereducir lasemisiones deCOg.
S

-12-
I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
What the "greenhouse effect "Isinshort
1.Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue,among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere ,theaverage surface temperature of
theearth ,which ispresently ofaround 15°C ,would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact ,theheat balance oftheearth ,which receives radiation from
the sunandreflects orre-emits itinto thespace ,islargely governed
bythe composition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour ,mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere ,isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature ofthe earth .
Moreover ,other substances such ascarbon dioxide (CC^),methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (N^O)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from thesunbutto
retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth aslong wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
(1)bytheearth .
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part ofthe radiant energy
coming from the sun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange oftheglobal thermal
balance ofthe earth .
Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer ")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from theearth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthe lower atmosphere .Anychange
inthe vertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

-13-
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofCC^
CFCs,CH^,^0,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthelower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthesize ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from the sun ispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairand isthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases :emission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times andarestill increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO^):
a.Emission sources :
Most ofanthropogenic CO^emissions areduetofossil fuels burning
(around 5Gtons *ofcarbon peryear).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
CO2world yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution toemission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon per year .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthelast 25years .
*1Gton =109tons =1000million tons

-14-
Theshare ofCOgemissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts oftheworld and itsrecent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
CO2emissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and asXofworld total
I 1950 I 1965 I 1980 I
I Region IMt/y* IX |Mt/y*I% IMt/y*IX I
INorth America I723 I44,7 I1003 I32,1 |13801 26,7 I
|URSS andEastern EuropeI291 I18,0 I750 124,0 |12511 24,2 I
IChina I23 I1,4 I178 15,7 1439 18,5 I
|Western Europe I379 I23,4 I643 120,6 |853 116,5 I
IJapan ,Australia I45 I2,8 I137 14,4 |300 15,8 I
IDeveloping Countries I92 I5,7 I250 18,0 |631 112,2 I
IOthers (worldwide gas I63 I3,9 I163 15,2 |310 |6,0 I
Iflaring ,bunkers ) I I I 1 1 1 I
|World total
II I
I1618 I
I I100I
I3126
I1 1
|100 I
I I1
51701100
II
I
I
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide andtheglobal carbon cycle "
USD0E/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton .
Thefigures above show thedramatic increase ofCOgemissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
Theshare ofthetotal world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period duei.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
Thetrends ofCC^world emission from different fossil fuels forthe
period 1950-1982 areshown innext figure ,(source :USDOE/ER-0239
report referred toabove ):
5000 I 1 1
*• -
4000 _
3000 _
– .••*•
|2000 _ /'Uvt.iv'Lj .-> l>^r Co«'X *
9 ,iI *I1000
~800I :
|600-X -
“400Çy
p ..x.x° - ьругрХ
200 -X
X•/»X»
1001-- 1- 1- I-
1950 1960 1970 1980 _ Year_ _1000
1950
Thesteep increase ofyearly CO^emissions from oilandnatural gas
hasbeen slowed down oreven reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
useofoil,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently CO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel
I11985CO2emissions in|
1miIlion tons carbon /y|
Igas 1 807 1
Ioil 1 2189 I
1coal I 2181 I
1gasflaring I 52 I
1Total I 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988

16-
Per
arecapita CO2emissions from fossil fuels fordifferent
shown inthefollowing table ,referred to1982 :countries
!
ICountry|Percapita CO2emissions (tons
|ofcarbon perinhabitant )I
I
I United States ! 4,9 I
I German Dem .Rep . 1 4,9 I
I Canada 1 4,4 I
I Czechoslovakia 1 4,1 I
I Australia I 3,9 I
I Soviet Union I 3,3 I
I Poland I 3,0 I
I Belgium I 3,0 I
I Germany ,Fed .Rep .I 2,9 I
I United Kingdom I 2,5 I
I Netherlands I 2,5 I
I France I 2,0 I
I Japan I 1,9 I
I Italy I 1,5 I
I Spain I 1,4 I
I China I 0,5 I
I Brazi l I 0,3 I
I India I 0,1 I
I World average I 1,0 I
Calculated from :Smith ,I.M. (1988 ):CC^andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIA Coal Research ,London ,and UN
statistical data
b.Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
CO2hasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forCO^
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwas anaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
 
1ppm =part permillion =0,0001%

17-
COgconcentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ,mostly duetofossil fuel burning anddeforestation ,on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans
andvegetation )arenolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore C02stored intheatmosphere .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's):
.a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 andCFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0,21 to0,23 ppb and0,37
to0,39 ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofC02,onehasto
note that the rate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofC02,around 5-7% peryear,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10,000 higher than C02'ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomore than 100
years ).
*
1ppb=part perbillion =0,0000001%

-18-
6.Incase ofmethane (CH,) :
a.Emission sources :
Present man-made emissions ofCH^comemainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH.4
cycle isnotwelt known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;therange indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors *:
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(+/- 3.)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Lakes 4(+/- 2)
Tundra 3(+/- 2)
Oceans 10(+/T 3)
Termites and other insects 25(+/- 20)
Other 40(+/- 40)
Man-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle .
Rice paddies
Biomass burning
Natural gas andmining losses
Solid Wasteetc. )75(+/- 35)
70(+/- 30)
70(+/- 40)
50(+/- 25)
30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-19-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasincreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1,54 and1,68 ppm inthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively ,in1983 ).Average yearly increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1,1% .
7.Incase ofnitrous oxide (N^O):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions of^0aremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial andocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Oceans and estuaries 2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
Natural soils 6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Fossil fuel combustion
Biomass burning
Fertilized soils
Cultivated natural soils4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
NgOatmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppb toabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25% peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that the present increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isdue totheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere are significant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios maybedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential cliaate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease intheheat quantity which is
trapped inthe lower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes and inparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming and itstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks duetoclouds ,vegetation etc .areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forCC^,25%forCFC's,20%forCH^,^0and0^
together .

-21-
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2075 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
theWorld Resources Institute interms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences oftherecent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy inall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by2025 .Inother studies this
share ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23%,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7%,Edmons =19% .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees theshare ofnuclear inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3% ,1990 =5.4% ,2000 =7.1% .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andinput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas for further research and study .

22-
The resultsare summarized innextfigure.
Commitment toFuture Warming IntheWRj Scenario *
WRI Scénario *
140*QHl*hEmissions '
13.0-iBueCac / f-H.
jTT]Modes !Polides g »:■.
140- _ _. / IM-
SlowBui!d*Up B Il^T
r"' / Il
i-/ 1}
19.o. ■Islflj||
0––1ir~nni11980 3000 I2025II2050I2075
flÀrbf771>VAR3A®owdo«nolnwehdoubleLJLJLaJ£i\ia CO,withinthefortcutprriodnApAltTJ]JLJL£3AStowBufld-Updo«notreachdoubleLJUILaJ£AMJCk COjwithinthefortca»tperiod
Approximate year ofcommitment towarming
equal to13to43degree !centigrade above pre-
industrial temperature .
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to13to43degree *centigrade above 19B0
temperatures .Commitment toFuture Warming IntheWRj Scenario *
StowBufld*Updonnotreachdouble
COjwithinthelorectstperiod
Approximate year ofcommitment towarming
equal to13to43degree !centigrade above pre-
industrial temperature .
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to13to43degrees centigrade above 19B0
temperatures .
Source :Mintzer I.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees,
WRI,Washington DC,USA

-23-
Energy Policies intheWRI Scenarios
Base Case Scenario
•"Business -As-UsuaJ ,"theinertia ]model ofgrowth and
change intheworld energy industry
•Nopólices toslow carbón dioxide emissions
•Minima ]stxmuJus toimprove end-use efficicncy
•Modest stimulus forsynfuels devclopment
•Minimal stimulus fordevelopment ofsolar energy
systems
*Nopolicy tolimit tropical deforestation ortoencourage
reforestation
•Minimal environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
High Emissions Scénario
•Accelerated growth inenergy useisencouraged
•Nopolicies toslow carbón dioxide emissions
•NostimuJus toimprove end-use efficicncy
•Modest stimulus forincreased useofcoal
•Strong stimulus forsynfuels development
•Nostimulus fordevelopment ofsolar energy systems
«Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmarginal lands to
agriculture
•Token environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
Modest Policies Scenario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forsolar energy
•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecosystem
protection ;more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantial environmental costs imposed onenergy
prices todiscourage solid fueluseandencourage
fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scénario
•Strong emphasis placed onimproving energy efficiency
•Rapid introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
•Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
•High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage solid fueluseandencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rale ofchange •0.8% peryear )
(Final Price-S3.15-S4.25 perC)in2005 )
(Final Price-$16.50 perGJin2025 )
($0.30 perCJforcoal ;SI.00perCjforsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -0.2% peryear )
(Rate ofimprovement -0.75% peryear )
(Final Price-S2.75-S3.50 perGjin1995 )
(Final Price-$20perGJin2040 )
($0.15 perC)forcoal;$0.50 perG]forsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -1.0% peryear )
(Final price-$15.00 perGjin2025 )
(S0.60 perGJforcoal;$1.50 perGJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofimprovement ■1.5% peryear )
(Final Price •$12.00 perGJin2000 )
($1.20 perCJforcoal ;$3.00 perGJforsynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
“1 S
jQJWRJScuuriof /
BHigh Emissions /
ABase Case /
I ifModest Policies /
|•Slow Build-up y'
\
JM-
U 16. /
114- /
2.' ' *-•
0- I- 1- 1- 1-Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
WRJ Scuurioi
BHigh Emissions
ABase Case
ifModest Policies
#Slow Build-up
19» 2000 2025 2050 20»

24-
Byadifferent approach .Dr. R.A.Warrich ofthe Climatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,has recently tried to
link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985 IN°C)
(B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY EQUILIBRIUM|<TRANSiENT)“C)CL,MAT,CCHANGE - Jl'd__
j 6.0••î (2.5-3.1)
6.0--'”_- 'H
4.0-- B__ci?-0~2-1)L_.-8°B
3-or- r~~ i <„IBESTGUESS:.45'r–LU.T
I III V
rrh- ztz-r~±n- . <. 'nJ.v800700βόοI500Λ*|\.169520052015202520352045
'EQUIVALENTC02C0NC(ppmv)!\ ‘VEAR
I [ /2006Х'ЧЧ\. I
Vx•'2026\i/"2035
"2M5 \
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM1985IN°C)
(TRANSIENT )
\(3.0-3.7)EQUILIBRIUM
7.0(C)CLIMATICCHANGE (B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY
r42>*.-.-
4.0+
JpIM-LU __._
BEST GUESS
sTL(1.0-1.1 ) t_■>U–i-rrrrr.90B
‘a
1695 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
\ ‘ YEAR800 700 6Ô0\
EQUIVALENTC02C0NC(ppmv)
+2006
+2016
+2026
+2045
YEAR
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend:
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
~T2X istheclimate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent CO^concentration
-“transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
due tothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothegreenhouse effect .

-25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
Given therange ofscientific uncertainties ,thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The"best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45% .
-The90%confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
(1)uncertainties )thefollowing climate andassociated impacts :
-Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable ). For adoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases ),the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse ,theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice .
-Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).Astheseaiceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner seaicewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasmuch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987 );Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA .

-26-
-Sumer Continental Dryness /Warming (likely inthe long term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthesoil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods ,and anearlier onset ofthespring -to-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse ,these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ). Astheclimate
warms ,theincreased poleward penetration ofwarm ,moist airshould
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations inthe upper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthe stratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from thestratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling willlead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they are notaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )" (WMO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andontherate ofsuch changes should nothide
the fact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

-27-
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"C02andother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the21st century .
-...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
-Over Europe therange ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthesize andrate ofthelatter .Atthesymposium on"C02and
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986);"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthelarge icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28-
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sea level rise are
avai table .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1,5meter (Toronto Conference ,June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding andstorm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Astheclimate warms ,total sea ice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Hater Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming may result insignificant changes inprecipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell asthe impacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCOgatmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have perseabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29-
into account should trytostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing C02concentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
. .., (2)summarised below :
changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds)(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands

-30-
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthe level ofcrop certainty andinthecrop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers /
pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics /water resources /hydrology /pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent /there isuncertainty about thenature /themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude /semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope andNorth-Ameri ca.
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
(1)USSR using climate data from themodel byHansen etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
duetotheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthelocal community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal(1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models Iand II",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclimate changes onagriculture given thelarge uncertainties
about theregional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthelack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts arerequired toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects andatCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
Itisworth noticing that thesame general comment onthedirect
potential effect of onvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity andforest management ;
.disturbance oftimber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species and local
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32-
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion ofthe range of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct ,
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (the impact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend onthe rate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation andecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled ,both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However ,itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks aredue toclimate andother natural causes orto
overfishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22.Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall ,1863 ;Arrhenius ,1896 ;
Chamberlin ,1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duCOgparun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

-33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques àentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous lesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment que cesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables politiques .
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques sur lesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 );
.theEuropean Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract COg
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"CC^andother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic
change "(Villach-Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy ,9-13 November 1987);
.TheBrundtland Commission' sreport
.TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
The last event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging atmosphere ,implications forglobal
security "–Toronto ,27–30 3une1988

-34-
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized attheinitiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollow-up some oftheconclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries ,United
Nations organizations ,other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations ,thefollowing seem
most important and aretherefore reproduced infull :
Humanity isconducting anenormous ,unintended ,globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel use and theeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security andarealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts will becaused byglobal warming andsea level
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase the risk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toact now."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments and Industry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

-35-
Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofCO2andother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofCO2isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce C02emissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
Reduce CO2emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly /the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway/both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inCOgandother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the 10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will notallbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally /
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inCOjandother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency /a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade .
Apart from efficiency measures /thedesired reduction will require
(i)switching tolower C02emittaing fuels /(ii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;(iii)revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

-36-
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved /through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements /nuclear power
could have arole toplay inlowering Ct^emissions .
-Negotiate now onways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage /review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies /inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion /toreduce (1)emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach thecritical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;(iii)other non-CO ^greenhouse gases .
Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
use oftheproduct .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations /
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthefree
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring ,andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law .This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 ,thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands inthe Fall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 and theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference onSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .

-37-
Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund /financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialized countries /tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
Support thework oftheInter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme /the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale arerelated toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining the role of
oceans andglobal heat transport andtheflux ofgreenhouse gases .
Increase significantly thefunding forresearch /development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy /ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis ontheneeds ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making useof
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Development 's(WCED )report /"OurCommon Future "/including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts ,monitoring /research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

-38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement ,theWorking Groupe reports
andthe full Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere *Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )aremade available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception ofthe issues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
environment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing the crucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developments
24.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39-
-theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
-theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.Thesubstance ofthe convention mentioned under 24above (andof
associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse issue isconcerned could
probably consist in :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies andtoreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onalltheaspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions ontheway howtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects ofthe issue .
Inthis respect ,itisworth stressing theglobal ,complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (seeAnnex ):
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change ,including policy responses toit,andanumber of
other issues ,above all inthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion ,andhence bycountry ,ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect theeffort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

40-
Thereport oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not,however ,beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomunity asawhole infacing it.
Still less should itencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into "winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ,"
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures (i.e. measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures maybeclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational rlevel and require
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofC0^emissions );
(b)those which maybetaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural andforest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

-41
(c)those ofanintermediate character Ce.g .decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted ,taking account of(a)andofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Measures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.The above mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential for two reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change anditsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen ,when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain asthe range ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial toknow
-which danger ,when andwhere ,onehastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment ,theeconomy ,thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore ,thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel ,andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo.
Only inthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process ,bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
and needs .

Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with thestudy oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with theimpacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised intheframe ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially ontheclimatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,thecloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources andsinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshelves .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress ontheimpacts which climate change could have
onimportant sectors ofthe European environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and itsimpacts onthe European coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems andcoastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops andforests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased COgand
climate change ,theimpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects oftheclimate change asregards theprogressive
aridification oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,theimpact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-A3-
(A)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources ,theimpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail andfrost onEuropean
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themelting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthesocial ,economic andpolitical factors conditioning
probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,andlikely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
duetoclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcost line regions of
the sea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded andtohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system anditssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
3A.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCO^isconcerned ,theobjective canalsobeachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy andtheefficient and
economic useofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification for aspecific energy
R&Dprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar.

-44-
35.Elimination ofCOgatthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
avai lable .
Newdirections for research inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCO^problem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .Thefirst aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced and thepace ofthat
reduction .The implementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Environment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
Climate models arethere toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment andtohelp construct scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute the impact ontheeconomic
systems ofthecosts incurred bythereduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed intheSystem Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthedirection defined above foranalysing
energy related CO^emissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
Theaimofsuch research would betoevaluate thefeasibility andthe
costs ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ontheenergy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first atreducing the rate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations and inthe longer term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

-45-
38.Theonly wayathand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incase of
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothemost
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39.Carbon dioxide (CC^)emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,COgemissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning andforest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )andin
theforestry andagricultural sectors asfar asaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests .
Atentative list ofactions aiming atCO^emissions reduction which
could bestudied might include :
A.Energy related measures forCO^
There are several types oftechnical energy related measures that
could curb CO^emissions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse not allthose measures areequally efficient or
cost-effective and one should make aclear distinction between the
physical potential ofCOgemission reduction ofagiven measure and
itseconomic viability .
Thefollowing technical measures ,which arelisted without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce COgemissions from
carbon-based fuels :
a.Energy Efficiency
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars ,electronic
regulations ,etc.);

-46-
“improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHD,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuel switching toless COgemitting fuels (therelation ofCO^
emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oilandnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased useofnoncarbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCO^atmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO2technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing CC^emissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used tothepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuseofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve CO2reduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
B.Measures related toforestry andnatural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest fires ;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry /especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs Missions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
41.CH^,N20émissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH,losses from landfills .4
c.Minimize N^Oemission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
N20release from nitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible use ofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-impacts arelikely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointhe short term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49-
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover /even inqualitative and
simple way/alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However ,itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea-level rise andforimpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation measures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Sea walls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
-Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
-Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
45.Examples ofaeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland usetooptimise andtostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management ,such assoil erosion
control ,water management ,etc .
Cooperation with developing countries
46.Alltheabove measures ,both asregards preventive action andasregards
planned adaptation ,should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries ,andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation ,conserving wetlands ,coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

50-
b)bytaking into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which maybeaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base line data being gathered forthepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthegreenhouse effect .

IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer andtheMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision ,
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bytheToronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthefuture protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets for limiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
50.Therefore ,theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy-options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications andimpacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forCOgemission ceilings .

-52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
Thefocus oftheexercise should beonEurope inafirst instance .
“establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabilistically policy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models and theexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely linked tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views and rapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem ,theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy ,
involving inparticular developing countries ,towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP andofOECD andIEA .
52.TheCommunity anditsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors relevant to
theissue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency improvement ,
development ofnewenergy sources ,useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCOgreductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit CO^emissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded inthe frame ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries andof
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
environment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaidto
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc.Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
-Thegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment and inbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

-54-
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess the long-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
increased ,inrespect ofthetype ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect maymake more likely .(Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .)Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothework needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions oftheCommunity
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onall theaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States and the
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

-55-
ANNEX
Recent Major events onthegreenhouse issue
(

-56-
A.The "VILLACH "Conference (International conference onthe assessment and
the rate ofCO.,andofother greenhouse gases 1nclimate variations and
associated impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference wasjointly convened byUNEP ,WMOandICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthestatement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic and social decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past ;climatic data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothefuture .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthenext century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable duetopast
actions ,the rate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models foradoubling ofthe
atmospheric CO^concentration could haveprofound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andseaice,"

-57-
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account theresults ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development ,environmental
programmes ,andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
"Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change andsealevel ,including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless ,theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases ;climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofDr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bythe CEC,DGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric CC^andother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthescientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent andcasual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

58-
Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts ,decision
makers andthescientific community involved intheissue ."
C.Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
(Villach ~Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 andBellagio -Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses forlimiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned inparagraph 28ofthis document ,the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
"Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
(1)Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (thereby reducing
CFCemissions ).Recommend that itberatified urgently and that
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
ofthe schedule for reductions inCFCs and eventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gaslimitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency ,reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing CC^
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along thelines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan ,1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture ,

59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc.Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason formeasures toreduce deforestation .
(A)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial andsocietal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills that emitmethane ;NgO
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc .
Immediate steps tolimit the impact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic andsoil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning for large newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms ofCt^equivalence )andthus to
theemissions and foreach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbeset in
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

-60-
(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming maycall fora
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities ,
both with regard toglobal climate and itsvariability and sea-level
changes ,atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry ,aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what newclimate observing system activites arerequired for
monitoring thechanging climate ;
-what activities are required formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
The IOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea -level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU ,UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP),
which isthefocus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP,astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly ,thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ),initiated byICSU ,addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofimportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP andIGBP
should begiven high priority ."

D.TheBrundttand Co»»1ssion's report
TheWorld Commission onenvironment andDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins /
mechanisms /andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes and rising sea level ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aim atan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E.TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofCOgin
the atmosphere :
"TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc .
B2-1430 /84).

-62-
-having regard tothereport oftheCommittee onEnergy ,Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc .A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth 'saverage
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning ,intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up ,which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator ,will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing outthat theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethescale thereof andthus the
number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
p.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment oftheworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthechanges taking place ,andthe
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
andtoexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures aredirected atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,thelatter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy andinnegotiations with
both national andinternational authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

-63-
3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational useofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls foraworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anend tothedeforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
6.Calls ontheCouncil when drawing upthenewframework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothearea ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon the industrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which are largely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with the relevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthereport of
itscommittee totheCouncil andtheCommission ."

1
Programa detrabajo deLaComisión
sobre elestudio deLasdistintas políticas quepueden aplicarse
para hacer frente ala"problemática del efecto deinvernadero "
I.CONTENIDO DEL PROGRAMA
Este programa hadeproprocionar loselementos necesarios para de¬
finir elpapel potencial delaComunidad ysusEstados miembros a
lahora deestablcer yfomentar enlosforos internacionales perti ¬
nentes tamedidas necesarias para hacer frente alosriesgos
originadas porelefecto invernadero .
Coneste objetivo /este programa detrabajo tratará lossiguientes
temas :
A.Determinación delasdistintas políticas para evitar /reducir las
emisiones degases del efecto deinvernadero
Sedeterminarán lasmedidas necesarias para poder reducir las
emisiones dedistintos gases delefecto deinver ¬
nadero hasta alcanzar unos objetivos estratégicos .Esto supo ¬
nequepara cada gas delefecto deinvernadero se
llevará acabo unavaloración detallada delasdistintas opcio ¬
nesdelasquesedispone para reducir laemisión para cal¬
cular elnivel deredución deemisiones que sepuede obtener
concada opción ,asicomo elpaquete demedidas necesarias para alcanzar
lasredudones establecidas como objetivo estratégico .Elpoten ¬
cial disponible para evitar /reducir lasemisiones seestudiará
enlossiguientes sectores :

2
-producción deenergía ;
-consumo deenergía (incluido eltransporte );
-producción industrial ;
-utilización delosproductos ;
-actividades agrarias .
Será necesario abordar elproblema demanera adecuada para tener en.cuenta las
distintas situaciones especificas decada país ugrupos depaíses .
Concretamente ,habrá queconsiderar lossiguientes factores :
-nivel dedesarrollo económico ;
“políticas energéticas envigor ;
-geografia .
B.Implicaciones derivadas delasdistintas opciones para reducir lasenisiones
Cada opción para reducir lasemisiones seexaminará conobjeto de
valorar lossiguientes puntos :
-Implicaciones técnicas eindustriales ;
-implicaciones económicas yfinancieras ;
-implicaciones políticas ,Institucionales ysociales .
C.Creaciónfeunmarco deanálisis dedecisiones
Secreará unmarco quepermita estructurar lainformación
disponible sobre todos losaspectos delefecto Invernadero
deforma quesepuedan determinar lasventajas proba "
bles (redución del riesgo demodificar elclima ,etc )decada una
delasdistintas políticas .Este marco tendrá encuenta :
|y ^ f*
-lasemisiones ylareducción delasemisiones ;
-lasimplicaciones queconllevan estas reducciones ;
-losdatos científicos disponibles sobre lasventajas potencia ¬
lesdeloscontroles deemisiones alternativas .

-3-
.Este marco secreará para recoger laincertidumbre sobre laseli¬
siones ,laeficacia deloscontroles ,loscambios climáticos y
losefectos quetienen lasemisiones sobre elclima ,yademás per¬
mitirá determinar losresultados másprobables derivados delas
diferentes actuaciones
Elmarco también permitirá examinar lasimplicaciones que sede¬
rivarían deque laactuación eneste área seretrase .Elmarco
supondrá unImportante instrumento para estudiar lasactuaciones
yconcentrar laInvestigación futura enpuntos clave dedecisión
alquedar estructurado elproblema yhaberBe terminado lasáreas
principales deIncertidumbre enlascuales losresultados pueden
variar demanera más sensible .
D. Estudio delasposibles ventajas delasdistintas políticas me¬
diante lautilización delmarco deanálisis dedecisiones yde¬
terminación delesquema evolutivo climático yel 'elimpacto p^-o-
vocado por laaplicación delasdistintas opciones decontrol de
emisiones .
Elmarco seempleará para establecer losposibles resultados de
lasdistintas opciones alternativas dereducción deemisiones ,
asícomo suspasos deaplicación (esquema evolutivo ).También
podrá indicar elgrado deprobabilidad deque lasventajas que
sepueden obtener conestas opciones selleguen amaterializar .
E. Determinación yestudio delasmedidas deadaptación necesarias
para losdistintos esquemas evolutivos propuestos enelpunto D.
Aunque seapliquen políticas decontrol delasemisiones seman¬
tendrán aúnunaserie deriesgos procedentes dela9emisiones del
pasado ydelasemisiones alaatmósfera futuras .Portanto ,ha¬
bráqueestablecer medidas deadaptación para hacer frente aes¬
tosriesgos (porejemplo ,medidas para proteger alhombre ,lapro¬
piedad ylaagricultura ).Sedeterminarán lamagnitud yelempla ¬
zamiento delosriesgos residuales claves ,yseestudiarán las
implicaciones decostes ytiempo delasdistintas medidas deadap ¬
tación .Lasmedidas deadaptación gozarán deprioridad para garan ¬
tizar que losriesgos residuales sereducen almázimo mediante el
empleo delosrecursos disponibles ,yqueasimismo sepreste es¬
pecial atención alasáreas quesuscitan mayor preocupación .

4
II.LISTA DETALLADA DEACTIVIDADES
Laejecución deeste programa requerirá ,entre otras ,Lassiguien ¬
tes actividades :
A.Previsión deemisiones yopciones dereducción delasmismas .
1Preparar unaprevisión deemisiones para cada ,gasdel "inver ¬
nadero ".Estas emisiones handeanalizarse por (a)regiones ,y
(b)porgrupos políticos ,estratégicos yeconómicos .
1iDeterminar factores (dejando aparte laaplicación delcontrol )
queprobablemente influyan . sobre .lasemisiones fu¬
turas .Valorar losgrados deprobabilidad eidear esquemas
evolutivos delasemisiones alternativas .
B.Evaluación delasimplicaciones delasdistintas opciones de
control de 'emisiones
IDeterminar laviabilidad ,coste ypasos deaplicación de
cada unadelasmedidas dereducción deemisiones .
IIEvaluar losefectos .sociales yeconómicos .
IIIEvaluar losefectos queestas opciones tendrán (a)enlos
distintos países ,(b)entre losdistintos paí¬
ses, (c)entre lasdistintas agrupaciones políticas y
estratégicas .
C.Creación deunmarco para integrar laInformación recabada du
rante elprograma detrabajo

-5-
Este marco hadeestar concebido para : ,
“presentar Implicaciones delasdistintas opciones ,Incluidos
costes yposibles ventajas ;
-señalar Implicaciones quesederivarían delaactuación en
distintos momentos ;
-evaluar lasolidez delasposibles decisiones (sobre estrate ¬
gias decontrol odeadaptación )teniendo en
cuenta lapoca seguridad delaspredicciones ydelosdatos
científicos disponibles ;
-centrarse enlaInvestigación queseanecesaria para respaldar Las
decisiones quehaya quetomarse .
0.Evaluación delasestrategias decontrol deemisiones
IDeterminar lasposibles ventajas quesepuedan derivar de
laaplicación deestrategias decontrol deemisiones .Esta la¬
borexigirá queselleve acabo unarevisión crítica delosme¬
canismos querelacionan lasconcentraciones degasdel "Inver ¬
nadero "conelcalentamiento delglobo .,ytratando enparticular
lostemas delossistemas dealimentación .dedatos ,lospa¬
sosdeaplicación ylasconsecuencias queafectan alos
climas regionales .
IIApartir delarevisión critica ,preparar un.estudio para
determinar elgrado deprobabilidad deque lasdistintas predicciones al¬
ternativas ydesusconsecuencias .Este trabajo haderecoger las
opiniones delosprincipales expertos yhadereflejar elgrado de
áocertldumbre detoA ...distintos resultados ..
i (»
üiApartirdelainformaciónobtenidasobrereduccióndeemisiones(A)ysus
Implicaciones ^IB),elmarcoparatomardecisionescreadoenel
apartado Cseemplearáparaevaluarloscostes,ventajasy
otrasImplicaciones delasdistintasopcionesdecontrolde
emisiones .

-6-
E.Evaluación delasmedidas deadaptación
iRevisar las :implicaciones quetendrán losdistintos niveles deca¬
lentamiento sobre lainfraestructura europea ysuabaste ¬
cimiento alimentario ;Identificar otras implicaciones cla¬
ves .Evaluar losefectos quetendrán estas medidas sobre otras
agrupaciones políticas yeconómicas depaíses .
iiRevisar lasopciones quepodrían
aplicarse para responder aloscambios potenciales (1)
enEuropa (porejemplo ,nuevas variedades decultivos ,
sistemas deplanificación variables ,etc).
iiiApartir delaevaluación llevada acabo enelepígrafe
Dyempleando elmarco creado enelepígrafe C,evaluar
loscostes yventajas delasdistintas
medidas deadaptación ;teniendo encuenta losefectos quese
prevé quetendrá cada unadeellas ;valorar elgrado de
probabilidad dequetales medidas deadaptación resulten
eficaces .
XXI .DIRECTRICES PARA LAAPLICACIÓN DELPROGRAMA
A.Alahora deejecutar este programa laComisión tendrá muy
encuenta otras actividades relevantes eneste terreno lle¬
vada acabo tanto enlaComunidad como enelresto del mun¬
do,tales como :
-elprograma deinvestigación delaCEsobre climatología
yriesgos naturales ;
-elresultado delasconferencias internacionales celebra ¬
das recientemente (tales como Laconferencia sobre la
Atmósfera enProceso deCambio ,Toronto ,junio 88);
-elgrupo detrabajo delPNUMA /OMMsobre cambios climáti ¬
cos ;
etc.

-7-
Aestos efectos /LaComisión establecerá Loslazos decooperación
adecuados con Lasorganizaciones pertinentes encargadas deta-
Les actividades .
B.Asistida porelComité mencionado enelarticulo
1deLaftecisión /LaComisión definirá Losprocedimientos ycon¬
cretará lospasos que handedarse eneste programa detrabajo /
asicomo Lainformación que handeproporcionar LosEstdos Miem ¬
bros .
Lasorganizaciones competentes yLosMinisterios gubernamentales
deLosEstados Miembros participarán también enestos trabajos a
través del Comité arriba mencionado .*
IV.FINANCIAMIENTO DEL PROGRAMA
Secalcula que losfondos necesarios para laaplicación delprograma
ascienden a6millones deECU .

Proyecto
de
Resolución delConsejo relativa al"efecto
invernadero ylaComunidad "
ElConsejo delasComunidades Europeas ,
Visto elTratado constitutivo delaComunidad Económica Europea ,
Visto elproyecto deResolución delaComisión ,
Considerando que eltratado constitutivo delaComunidad Económica Europea ,
modificado porelActa Única Europea ,dispone eldesarrollo ylaaplicación
deunapolítica comunitaria demedio ambiente ,yque elmismo tratado esti ¬
pula quepara tomar medidas eneste campo laComunidad deberá tener encuen ¬
talosdatos científicos ytécnicos asudisposición ylasventajas yperjui ¬
cios quepudieran resultar desuactuación odelaausencia delamisma ;
Considerando que lapresente Resolución seinspira enlasconsideraciones ex¬
presadas enlaResolución de19deoctubre de1987 relativa aunprograma co¬
munitario demedio ambiente (1),concretamente laconveniencia deactuar en
elnivel apropiado ,asícomo lanecesidad deunacoordinación internacional
deltrabajo ,deevaluar lasventajas yloscostes delasmedidas consideradas
ydepreparar adecuadamente dichas medidas desde elpunto devista técnico y
político ;
Considerando que losdatos cientificos disponibles indican ,enparticular los
resultados delosprogramas deinvestigación enmateria demedio ambiente
comunitarios ,que lasactividades delserhumano están alterando demodo
significativo lacomposición delaatmósfera yque,sinosbasamos enlos
modelos climatológicos existentes ,esto
(1)D.O. n°C328de7.12.1987 ,pâg .1

podría acarrear alcabo decierto tiempo ,debido alLlamado efecto invernade ¬
ro,modificaciones climáticas conimportantes repercusiones sobre elmedio am¬
biente ,elhombre ysusactividades ;
Considerando que,teniendo encuenta lanaturaleza ylasproporciones delos
riesgos quesupone elefecto invernadero ,esurgente examinar lasposibles
medidas para prevenir oreducir dichos riesgos ;
Considerando que enlasrecientes conferencias internacionales sehaalcanza ¬
dounconsenso muyamplio enloque respecta alanecesidad deconsiderar ur¬
gentemente medidas para reducir lasemisiones delosgases queprovocan el
efecto invernadero ;
Considerando que,dada lacomplejidad delproblema delefecto invernadero
ydelasmúltiples yprofundas implicaciones tanto deeste efecto como delas
posibles medidas para prevenir opaliar susconsecuencias ,seimpone analizar
unminucioso examen previo delasdiversas opciones políticas mediante méto ¬
dosadecuados quetengan especialmente encuenta lasincertidumbres queaún
subsisten entorno avarios aspectos delproblema ;
Considerando que essumamente importante que laComunidad ysusEstados miem ¬
bros sehallen ensituación decontribuir significativamente alareflexión
yalaelaboración delasdecisiones políticas que sepuedan tomar enlosfo¬
rosinternacionales apropiados para actuar delmodo máseficaz contra losries ¬
gosdemodificaciones climáticas ,

-3-
Aprueba laComunicación delaComisión acerca del "problema delefecto inver ¬
nadero ylaComunidad "asicomo susprincipales conclusiones yrecomendaciones ;
Declara que laComunidad debería prestar uninterés creciente alospeligros
encerrados enlosposibles cambios climáticos relacionados con elefecto in¬
vernadero ycontribuir demodo significativo afomentar lareflexión ylos
debates entorno alasposibles medidas para contrarrestar dichos riesgos ;
Aprueba lainiciativa delaComisión delanzar unprograma detrabajo relati ¬
voalaevaluación delasopciones políticas para enfrentarse con losriesgos
relacionados con elefecto invernadero así como losobjetivos dedicho progra ¬
ma .
Invita alaComisión apresentar alConsejo yalParlamento Europeo ,amedia ¬
dosde1990 ,uninforme delosprogresos realizados yuninforme final delos
resultados obtenidos por elprograma detrabajo ydelasconclusiones extraí ¬
das,afinales de1991 .