ARCHIVESHISTORIQUES
DELACOMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88)656
V ol.1988/0219

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iKOMMISSIONENFORDEEUROPÆISKEFÆLLESSKABERKOM(88 )656endelig udg .
Bruxelles ,den 14.december 1988
KOMMISSIONENS MEDDELELSE TILRÅDET
om
"Drivhusproblematikken ogFællesskabet
og
Udkast tilII
RÅDETS RESOLUTION
omdrivhusproblematikken ogFællesskabet
(forelagt afKommissionen )
#

Kommissionens meddelelse til Ridet
om
"DRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN OG
FÆLLESSKABET "

-2-
INDHOLDSFORTEGNELSE
RESUMÉ OGKONKLUSIONER Punkt
I. ENINDLEDNING TIL DRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN A-C
Enkort redegørelse fordrivhuseffekten 1-2
Drivhusgasser :emissionskilder ogudviklingen i 3-10
atmosfærens koncentration
Demulige konsekvenser forklimaet afdevoksende 11-13
koncentrationer afdrivhusgasser
Demulige virkninger afklimaændringerne 14-21
II.BAGGRUND OGFREMTIDSUDSIGTER IINTERNATIONAL SAMMENHÆNG
Indledning ogresumé 22
Verdenskonferencen om"atmosfæren iforandring " 23
(Toronto ,27.-30 .juni 1988 )
Fremtidsudsigterne 24-28
III .OVERSIGT OVER AKTIONSMULIGHEDERNE
Indledning 29-31
Forskningsaktivi teter29-31
32-36
37-42Side
4-11
12-13
13-20
20-27
27-32
32-33
33-38
38-40
40-41
42-44
44-48 Forebyggende foranstaltninger

Punkt Side
Planlagt tilpasning 43-45 48-49
Samarbejde medudviklingslandene 46 49-50
IV.KOMMISSIONENS KONKLUSIONER 47-58 51-54
BILAG
"Villach"-konferencen A 56
(Villach ,Østrig ,den9.-15 .oktober 1985 )
EF-symposiet om"CO2ogandre drivhusgasser " B 57
(Bruxelles ,den3.-5 .november 1986 )
Workshops om"Foranstaltninger tilimødegåelse af C 58-60
klimaændringer "(Villach ,Østrig ,28.sept.-2 .okt .1987
ogBellagio ,-Italien ,9.-13 .nov .1987 )
Brundt land-kommi ssionens rapport D 61
Europa-Par lamentets beslutning E 61

-6-
A.3 . Baggrund ogfremtidsudsigter iinternational sammenhæng
A.3.1 .Padeninternationale konference ombedømmelse afCO^'s ogandre driv¬
husgassers rolle forklimaændringer ogvirkningerne itilknytning hertil
(Villach ,den9.-15 .oktober 1985 )nåede devidenskabelige kredse til
enighed omdeovenfor omhandlede grundlæggende kendsgerninger medhensyn
tildrivhusproblematikken .
A.3.2 .Konklusionerne fraVillach-konferencen blev yderligere udbygget påEF-
symposiet iBruxelles den3.-5 .november 1986 om"CO^ogandre drivhus ¬
gasser :klima ogvirkninger itilknytning hertil "samt påworkshops i
Villach (28.sept.-2 .okt .1987)og iBel'lagio .(9.-13 .nov .1987 )om"for¬
anstaltninger tilimødegåelse afklimaændringer ".
A.3.3 .Drivhusproblematikken blev også taget opafBrundt land-kommi ssionen .Ef¬
terhenstilling fradenne kommission blev der iToronto den27.-30 .juni
1988 holdt enverdenskonference omatmosfæren iforandring ,konsekvenser ¬
nefordenglobale sikkerhed .Følgende foranstaltninger blev anbefalet
pådenne konference :
-Ratificering afMontreal-protokol lenomstoffer ,dernedbryder ozonlaget .
Protokollen børrevideres i1990 medhenblik påatsikre næsten fuld¬
stændig eliminering afemissionerne affuldt halogenerede CFC'er inden
år2000 .
-Opstilling afenergipolitiske foranstaltninger medhenblik påatredu¬
cereemissionerne afCO^ogandre sporgasser ogdermed mindske risikoen
forfremtidig global opvarmning .
-Nedbringelse af(^-emissionerne medomkring 20%af1988-niveauet inden
år2005 sometforeløbigt globalt mål ideindustrialiserede lande .
-Opstilling afmålforenergieffektivitetsforbedringer ,meddirekte sig¬
tepåbegrænsning afCO^ogandre drivhusgasser .
-Forberedelse afenomfattende global konvention .
-Oprettelse afenfond fordenglobale atmosfære (World Atmosphere Fund ).
A.3.A. Etsandsynligt resultat påkort sigt afdeovennævnte internationale ak¬
tiviteter er,atderallerede i1989 kanindledes forberedende foranstalt ¬
ninger tilenaftale omdrivhusproblematikken ,somsenere skal omfatte
protokoller ombegrænsning afemissionen afdrivhusgasser .

-7-
A.3.5.Denæste vigtige skridt herimod denne aftale vilsandsynligvis være :
Μ-eninternational workshop omlovgivning ogforanstaltninger ,der skal
afholdes iOttawa ibegyndelsen af1989 ;
-enpolitisk konference pihøjt plan ,somdetnederlandske miljømini ¬
sterium vilindkalde til iefteråret 1989 ;
-den 2.konference omdetglobale klima ,Genève ,juni 1990 ;
-enregeringskonference omdenacceptable udvikling i1992 ,somvil
kunne blive denkulminerende begivenhed .
A.4. Mulige foranstaltninger
A.4.1 .Taktik tilbekæmpelse afdrivhuseffekten kanomfatte forebyggelses -og/
eller tilpasningsforanstaltninger .
A.4.2.Forebyggende foranstaltninger gårudpiatbegrænse emissionerne afdriv ¬
husgasser for atmindske deforventede virkninger .
Medhensyn tilCO^børderførst ogfremmest gribes ind ienergisektoren
og iskovbruget idetropiske egne .
JAfeksempler påenergiforanstaltninger ,somvilkunne bidrage tilatbe¬
grænse CC^-emi ssionerne ,kannævnes :
-øget energieffektivitet (både påforsynings -ogefterspørgselssiden )
-overgang tilmindre kulintensive brændstoffer
-fremme afnyeenergikilder ogacceptabel anvendelse afbiomasse
-fremme afrisikofri kerneenergi .
U
Fremme afnyeenergiteknologier tilstøtte fordisse foranstaltninger
synes atvære afsærlig stor betydning .
Pålang sigt vilnyeikke-kulbaserede energisystemer kunne bidrage be¬
tydeligt tilennedbringelse afCC^-emissionerne .

-8-
Deovennævnte foranstaltninger ernaturligvis ikke alle lige effektive ,
ogderkræves desuden enomhyggelig vurdering afderes økonomiske leve¬
dygtighed .
Iskovbrugspolitikken børman søge atvende dennuværende tendens mod
skovrydning ,især iffkvatorområdet .Dette vilnavnlig indebære ,atder
findes erstatningsbrændsel fortræ,som iudstrakt grad anvendes som
brændsel idisse egne ,atdergives incitament tilacceptable dyrknings -
i■
metoder ,siledes atlandbrugsudvikling ikke medfører ,atstore skovom ¬
råder afbrændes medhenblik piatrydde landområder .
A.4.3 .Detervanskeligere atangive mulige foranstaltninger til atnedbringe
emissionen afdrivhusgasserne CH^ogN^O,ibetragtning afusikkerheds ¬
momenterne omkring emissionerne afdisse stoffer .
Følgende muligheder børudforskes :
-Mindskelse afCH^-tab iforbindelse medudvinding ,transport ogan¬
vendelse afnaturgas .
-Mindskelse afCH-tab fra lossepladser .
H
-Mindskelse af^O-emissionen fraafbrænding affossilt brændsel .
-Undersøgelse afmulige forbedringer ihusdyrbrug ,risdyrkning ogfor¬
valtning aflaguneområder ,medhenblik påatbegrænse CH^-frigørelsen .
-Undersøgelse afmuligheden forbedre gødningspraksis medhenblik påat
nedbringe ^O-frigørelsen frakvælstofgødning .
A.4.4 .Hvad angår CFC,skulle detvære muligt fuldstændig ateliminere CFC–
emissionen vedår2000 vedatbegrænse produktionen afCFCogvedatgenvinde ,
genanvende eller destruere CFC ieksisterende produkter .
A.4.5 .Dervileventuelt blive behov fortilpasningsforanstaltninger (forebyg ¬
gelse eller mindskelse afskader somfølge afklimaændringer ogvirknin ¬
gerne heraf )tilafbødning afkonsekvenser ,som,påtrods afdeforebyg ¬
gende foranstaltninger ,viser sigatvære uundgåelige .
Deterikke pådette stadium muligt detaljeret atangive ,hvilke til¬
pasningsforanstaltninger ,der igivet fald vilvære behov for iFælles ¬
skabet ,daderikke foreligger nogen pålidelig regional bedømmelse afde
mulige virkninger .

-9-
Tilpasningsforanstaltninger tilafbødning afhavstandens stigning kan
f.eks .omfatte diger /barrierer ,nationale oversvømmelsesforsikringsprogram ¬
mer,anlæg afreservoirer (tilbekæmpelse aføget saltindhold ),fraflytning
fraudviklede egne ilavtliggende områder ,anden indkvartering afbefolk ¬
ningen frasårbare områder ,beskyttelse afkystøkosystemer .
Derbørforetages yderligere undersøgelser foratfastlægge mulige tilpas ¬
ningsforanstaltninger påandre områder ,såsom landbrug ogskovbrug .
B. KONKLUSIONER VEDRØRENDE DEN NUVÆRENDE VIDEN OMDRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN
B.1 . Atmosfærens sammensætning er ifærd med atændre sigbetydeligt somfølge
afmenneskelige aktiviteter .
Devidenskabelige kredse er,pågrundlag afglobale klimamodeller ,nået
tilenighed om,atenfordobling af(^“koncentrationen iatmosfæren vil
medføre enstigning idengennemsnitlige overfladetemperatur på1,5-4,5°C .
Ensådan fordobling vilsandsynligvis indtræde inden midten afdetnæste
århundrede .
Deklimatologiske data viser ,atdenheraf følgende ændring idegennem ¬
snitlige globale klimaforhold vilvære større enddeklimaændringer ,der
erindtruffet ihistorisk tidog ideseneste geologiske tidsaldre .
B.2 .Deterikke pånuværende tidspunkt muligt atforetage enpålidelig vurde ¬
ring afdeforskellige virkninger afsådanne klimaændringer ogdisses
socio-økonomi skekonsekvenser .Deforeløbige undersøgelser pådette
område viser imidlertid ,atrisiciene erforuroligende store ,ogatde
sandsynlige direkte ogindirekte konsekvenser erpotentielt ødelæggende .
B.3 .Internationale tildragelser idensenere tidhargivet denverdensom ¬
spændende debat omdette spørgsmål enpåmindelse om,atsagen haster .
Detfremgår klart ,atdetnuertidtilatudarbejde brugbare strategier
ogsamtidig fremskynde forskningsindsatsen .

-10-
C. KOMMISSIONENS KONKLUSIONER
C.O. Devigtigste afrapportens konklusioner erkort gengivet her .Ikapitel
IVerdeanført uforkortet .
C.1 . Fællesskabet bør fuldt udgennemføre Wienerkonventionen ombeskyttelse
afozonlaget ogMontreal -protokollen omstoffer ,dernedbryder ozon ¬
laget ,ogdetbørdeltage aktivt igenforhandlingen afdenne protokol .
C.2. Fællesskabet børbifalde ,atder indledes forhandlinger omeninterna ¬
tional aftale ombeskyttelse afatmosfæren .Fællesskabet bør være rede
til atyde etbetydeligt bidrag tiludarbejdelsen ogforhandlingerne af
ensådan aftale ,somvilkunne indebære ,atderopstilles specifikke mil
forbegrænsning afemissionen afdrivhusgasser ogfastlægges foranstalt ¬
ninger ogprogrammer medsigte pinedbringelse afemissionen .
C.3. Kommissionen vilderfor tage initiativ til ativærksætte
etomfattende program tilundersøgelse afdeforeliggende aktionsmulig -
heder ,således atdemulige foranstaltninger tilbegrænsning afemissio ¬
nen afdrivhusgasser kanvurderes medhensyn tilgennemførlighed ,omkost
ninger ogsandsynlige resultater .
Programmet skulle omfatte følgende hovedemner :
-indkredsning ogteknisk vurdering afforanstaltninger ogteknologier ,
somvil kunne nedbringe emissionen afdrivhusgasser
-analyse afdeovennævnte foranstaltningers ogteknologiers økonomiske ,
industrielle ,energimæssige ,samfundsmæssige oginstitutionelle kon¬
sekvenser ogvirkninger
-opstilling ogevaluering afscenarier fordeforskellige aktionsmulig ¬
heder ,navnlig påbasis afmulige strategiske CC^-mål

-11
-skabelse afenrammestruktur forbeslutningsanalyse
-fastlæggelse ogevaluering aftilpasningsforanstaltninger .
C.4. Fællesskabet ogdets medlemsstater børallerede nu ideres politik (vedrørende
energi ogrelevante andre områder )tage hensyn tilproblemet medpo¬
tentielle klimaændringer itilknytning tildrivhusgaseffekten .Hvis dette
spørgsmål behandles påettidligt stadium ,vilderkunne undgås højere
omkostninger ifremtiden .
C.5. Allerede nuvilKommissionen enavidere tage initiativ tilhasteforanstaltninger
foratøgeindsatsen medhenblik påenergibesparelser ,bedre energiud ¬
nyttelse ,udvikling afnyeenergikilder ogforskning irisikofri kemeteknologi .
Hurtig udvikling ogfremme afimovative teknologier ikommerciel målestok børprioriteres højt .
Dereringen tvivl om,atdererbehov forsådanne foranstaltninger ,både
udfraenergimæssige ogmiljømæssige hensyn ,uanset denusikkerhed ,der
hersker omkring visse videnskabelige aspekter afdrivhusproblematikken .
Detville være afsærlig stor betydning atkunne "kvantificere "forbed ¬
ringer ienergieffektiviteten iform af(^“reduktioner .
C.6. Fællesskabet børfremme målrettede forskningsprogrammer vedrørende alle
derelevante aspekter afdrivhusproblematikken ,ogdetbørudvikle
nyeenergiteknologier ,somkanbegrænse CC^-emmi ssionerne .

-12-
I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE 6REENH0USE ISSUE
What the "greenhouse effect "isinshort
1.Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue,among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere ,theaverage surface temperature of
theearth ,which ispresently ofaround 15°C ,would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact ,theheat balance oftheearth ,which receives radiation from
thesunandreflects orre-emits itinto thespace ,islargely governed
bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour ,mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere ,isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature ofthe earth .
Moreover ,other substances such ascarbon dioxide (Cl^),methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (N^O)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from thesunbutto
-retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth aslong wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
bytheearth .^
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part ofthe radiant energy
coming from the sun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange ofthe global thermal
balance ofthe earth .
(1)Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer ")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from the earth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthe lower atmosphere .Anychange
inthe vertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

-13-
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofCC^,
CFCs,CH^,NgO,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthe lower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthe size ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from thesun ispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairand isthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
6reenhouse gases :emission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO.,):
a.Emission sources :
* '1
Most ofanthropogenic C0_emissions areduetofossil fuels burning
*
(around 5Gtons ofcarbon peryear ).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
CO2world yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution toemission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon peryear .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthe last 25years .
£ O
1Gton =10tons =1000 million tons

-14-
Theshare ofCO2emissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts oftheworld anditsrecent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
CO2emissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and asXofworld total
1950 I 1965 I1980
I Region |Mt/y* I X Mt/y* IX IMt/y*IX 1
INorth America I723 I44,7 1003 I32,1 |1380 126,7 1
|URSS andEastern Europe I291 I18,0 750 124,0 |1251 124,2 1
IChina I23 I 1/4 178 15,7 |439 18,5 1
IWestern Europe I379 I23,4 643 120,6 |853 116,5 1
IJapan ,Australia I45 I2/8 137 14,4 |300 15,8 1
(Developing Countries I92 I 5/7 250 18,0 1631 112,2 1
lOthers (worldwide gas I63 I3/9 163 15,2 |310 |6,0 1
Iflaring ,bunkers ) I I 1 1 1 1
I
|World total
II I
I1618 I
I I100 31261 1
1100 i
! I1
5170 1100
11
1
1
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide andtheglobal carbon cycle "
USD0E/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton .
Thefigures above show thedramatic increase ofCO2emissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
Theshare ofthetotal world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period duei.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
Thetrends ofCOgworld emission from different fossil fuels forthe
period 1950-1982 areshown innext figure ,(source :USD0E/ER-0239
report referred toabove ):
5000I ' 1 ~7T,*• “
4000 - /
3000 "
i -
O^ 1.72% /
** •.-î^–Z
o1000
s800: ï
|6oo-ys y*^**~^-
UJf •/
«s.^00r -X
° -
200-S
S»s»
100t-- 1- 1_ –I_
1950 1960 1970 1980
YearCo»' X
Thesteep increase ofyearly C0gemissions from oilandnatural gas
hasbeen slowed down oreven reversed after the first oilcrisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
useofoil,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently COg
emissions from coal have increased after thefirst oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel11985CO2emissions in|
I 1miIlion tons carbon /y|
Igas 1 807 1
Ioil 1 2189 I
Icoal I 2181 I
Igasflaring I 52 I
ITotal I 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988
*•W.

-16-
Percapita COgemissions from fossil fuels fordifferent countries
areshown inthefollowing table ,referred to1982 :
I Country |Percapita COgemissions (tons |
I Iofcarbon perinhabitant ) |
United States | 4,9
German Dem.Rep. | 4,9
Canada | 4,4
Czechoslovakia | 4,1
Australia | 3,9
Soviet Union | 3,3
Poland | 3,0
Belgium | 3,0
Germany ,Fed.Rep.| 2,9
United Kingdom | 2,5
Netherlands | 2,5
France | 2,0
Japan | 1,9
Italy I 1,5
Spain I 1,4
China | 0,5
Brazil | 0,3
India | 0,1
World average | 1,0
Calculated from :Smith ,I.M. (1988 ):CO.,andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIACoal Research ,London ,andUN
statistical data
b.Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
CO2hasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forCO2
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwas anaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
*
1ppm =part permillion =0,0001%

-17-
C0£concentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ,mostly duetofossil fuel burning anddeforestation ,on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans
andvegetation )arenolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore CC^stored intheatmosphere .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's):
a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 andCFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0,21 to0,23 ppb*and0,37
to0,39 ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofCOg,onehasto
note that the rate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofC0£,around 5-7% peryear,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10,000 higher than COg' ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomore than 100
years ).
 
1ppb=part perbillion =0,0000001%

-18-
6.Incaseofmethane(CH,):–'i–
a.Emission sources :
Present man-made emissions ofCH^come mainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and theoverall CH,4
cycle isnotwell known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;therange indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(+/- 3)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Lakes 4(+/- 2)
Tundra 3(+/- 2)
Oceans 10(+/- 3)
Termites and other insects 25(+/- 20)
Other 40(+/- 40)
Man-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle ,
Rice paddies
Biomass burning
Natural gasandmining losses
Solid Wasteetc. )75(+/- 35)
70(+/- 30)
70(+/- 40)
50(+/- 25)
30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

19-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasincreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1,54 and1,68 ppm inthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively ,in1983 ).Average yearly increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1,1% .
7.Incase ofnitrous oxide (N.,0):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions of^0aremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial and ocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;therange indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Oceans and estuaries 2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
Natural soils 6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Fossil fuel combustion
Biomass burning
Fertilized soils
Cultivated natural soils4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
N20atmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppb toabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25% peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that thepresent increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isdue totheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere aresignificant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios may bedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease intheheat quantity which is
trapped inthelower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes and inparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming and itstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks duetoclouds ,vegetation etc.areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forC02,25%forCFC's,20%forCH4,N20and0j
together .

-21
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2075 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
theWorld Resources Institute interms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences ofthe recent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy inall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by2025 .Inother studies this
share ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23%,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7%,Edmons =19% .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees theshare ofnuclear inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3% ,1990 =5.4% ,2000 =7.1% .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andinput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas for further research and study .

-22-
Theresultsare summarized innextfigure.
Commitment toFuture Wanning intheWR1 Scenario *
! WRI Scénarios
| ("1High Emissions r
(mi–- m
(g]Modest Polides / få
HSlowBuild-Up g
«1- ,-.-1–|-|-Γ-Γ--,-Γ- 1
I960 3000 I 202»II I2050 I 2073
□Am 1 A
Approximate year ofcommitment towarmingQequal to1.5to4.5degrees centigrade above pre¬
industrial temperature .
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to1.5to4.5degrees centigrade above 1980
temperatures .Commitment toFuture Wanning intheWR1 Scenario *
WRI Scenario *
nHigh Emissions
H}ButCoe
gJJModot Pollda
QSlowBuild-Up
Slow Build-Up does notreach double
COj within theforecast period
Approximate year ofcommitment towarmingQequal to1.5to4.5degrees centigrade above pre¬
industrial temperature .
Approximate year ofcommitment towanning
equal to1.5to4.5degrees centigrade above 1980
Source :MintzerI.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees,
WRI,Washington DC,USA

23-
Energy Policies intheWRI Scenarios
».Base Cue Scenario
*"Business -Aa-Usual," theinertial model ofgrowth and
change intheworld energy industry
•Nopolicies tosk>w carbon dioxide emissions
•Minimal stimulus toimprove end-use efficicncy
•Modest stimulus forsynfuels devclopment
•Minimal stimulus fordevelopment ofsolar energy
systems
•Nopolicy tolimit tropical deforestation ortoencourage
reforestation
•Minimal environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
High Emissions Scenario
•Accelerated growth inenergy useisencouraged
•Nopolicies toslow carbon dioxide emissions
•Noshmulus toimprove end-use cfficicncy
•Modest stimulus forincreased useofcoal
•Strong stimulus forsynfuels devclopment•Nostimulus fordevelopment ofsolarenergy systems
•Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmarginal lands to
agriculture
•Token environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
Modest Policies Scenario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forsolar energy
•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecosystem
protection ;more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantial environmental costs imposed onenergy
prices todiscourage solid fueluseandencourage
fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scenario
•Strong emphasis placed onimproving energy efficiency
•Rapid Introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
•Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
•High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage solid fueluseandencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rate ofchange •0.6% peryear )
(Final Pnce-$3.15-$4.25j>crCJ in2005 )
(Final Pricc •>$16.50 perCJin2025)
($0.30 perGJforcoal ;$1.00 perC)forsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -0.2% peryear )
(Rate ofImprovement •0.75% peryear )
(Final Price-S2.7S-$3.50 perCJin1995 )
(Final Price -$20perGjin2040 )
($0.15 perGJforcoal ;$0.50 perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -1.0% peryear )
(Final price-S15.00 perCJm2025 )
(SQ.60 perG]forcoal ;$1.50 perGJforsynfuels )
(Rateofimprovement -1.5% peryear )
(Final Price -$12.00 perG]in200<J )
($1.20 perCJforcoal ;S3.00 perG)forsynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
“1 /
20J WRIScénarios /
HHigh Emissions /
▲Base Case /
J ifModest Policies /
| •Slow Build-Up y'
: M-I“* //
I! 'λoi»j /
0- |- |- 1- 1-WRI Scenarios
HHigh Emissions
▲Base Case
ifModest Policies
•Slow Build-up
197$ 2000 2025 2050 2073

24-
Byadifferent approach .Or.R.A.Warrich ofthe Climatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,has recently tried to
link emission forecasts andlikely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM1985IN°C)
(B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY EQUILIBRIUMUTRANSIENT)~C)CÜMAT1CCHANGE - _7'l"d_
0.0”
(2.5-3.1)
6.0-- ---T£
4.0+ В-,4 U ...y
JBESTGUESS :.45M:
T
i i *Y
1–I- 1-!-1!-H––-1-1-1-1–i–l-1-
800700!Θ00|500Λ^\1ΘΘ5200520152025203520-45
IEQUIVALENTCO,CONC(ppmv)j\ IYEAR
! !! !
''2006 {
x--2026 \ I
--2036
--2045
YEAR \
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM1985IN°C)
(C)CLIMATICCHANGE (B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY-
_f__
BESTGUESS
u(1.0-1.1)_t_U–rrrcrr–––––
800700eôo|500
EQUIVALENTCO,CONC(ppmv)j*I Ik1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 20-45\ * YEAR
+2006
+2015
+2026
+2045
YEAR
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend:
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
T2X isthe climate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent CC^concentration
-"transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
due tothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothegreenhouse effect .

-25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
Given therange ofscientific uncertainties ,thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The "best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45% .
-The90%confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
(1)uncertainties )the following climate andassociated impacts :
-Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable ). For adoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases ),the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse ,theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice .
-Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).Astheseaiceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner seaicewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasmuch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987 );Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA.

-26-
-Suaaer Continental Dryness /Uarming (likely inthe long term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthe soil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods ,and anearlier onset ofthespring -to-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse ,these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ). Astheclimate
warms ,the increased poleward penetration ofwarm ,moist airshould
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations intheupper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthe stratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from the stratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling will lead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they arenotaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )" (WMO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andontherate ofsuch changes should nothide
thefact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

-27-
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"CO^andother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
"-Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the21st century .
-...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
-Over Europe the range ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthesize andrate ofthelatter .Atthesymposium on"COgand
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986);"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthelarge icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28-
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sea level rise are
avai labié .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1,5meter (Toronto Conference ,June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding andstorm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Astheclimate warms ,total sea ice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Water Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming may result insignificant changes inprecipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell astheimpacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCOgatmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have perseabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29-
into account should try tostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing C02concentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
summarised below :
"-changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds)(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands .

-30-
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthe level ofcrop certainty and inthecrop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers ,
pesticides andherbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics ,water resources ,hydrology ,pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent ,there isuncertainty about thenature ,themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude ,semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope andNorth-America .
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
(1)USSR using climate data from themodel byHansen etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
duetotheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthe local community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal (1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models Iand II",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclimate changes onagriculture given thelarge uncertainties
about theregional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthelack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts arerequired toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects andatCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems andTimber Production
Itisworth noticing that thesame general comment onthedirect
potential effect ofCO^onvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity andforest management ;
.disturbance oftimber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species and local
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32-
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion oftherange of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct /
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (the impact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend onthe rate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation andecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled /both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However ,itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks areduetoclimate andother natural causes orto
overfishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22.Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall ,1863 ;Arrhenius ,1896 ;
Chamberlin ,1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duCOgparun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

-33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques àentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous tesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment quecesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables politiques .
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques surlesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 );
.theEuropean Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract CO^
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"CC^andother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies for responding toclimatic
change "(Villach-Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy ,9-13 November 1987 );
.TheBrundtland Commission' sreport
.TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
The last event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging ataosphere ,implications forglobal
security "-Toronto ,27-30 june 1988

-34-
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized atthe initiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollow-up some oftheconclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries /United
Nations organizations /other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations /thefollowing seem
most important and aretherefore reproduced infull :
"-Humanity isconducting anenormous /unintended /globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities /
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel use and theeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security andarealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts will becaused byglobal warming andsea level
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase the risk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toactnow."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments andIndustry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

-35-
Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofCO2andother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofCC^isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce C0£emissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
Reduce COgemissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly ,the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway,both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inCO^andother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will notallbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally ,
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inCC^andother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency ,a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade . ,
Apart from efficiency measures ,thedesired reduction will require
(i)switching tolower Ct^emittaing fuels ,Cii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;(iii)revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

36
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved ,through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements ,nuclear power
could have arole toplay inlowering CC^emissions .
-Negotiate now onways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage ,review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies ,inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion ,toreduce (i)emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach thecritical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;(iii)other non-CC^greenhouse gases .
-Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
use oftheproduct .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations ,
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthefree
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring ,andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law .This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 ,thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands inthe Fall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 and theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference onSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .

-37-
Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund /financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialized countries /tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
Support thework oftheInter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme ,the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale are related toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining the role of
oceans andglobal heat transport andtheflux ofgreenhouse gases .
Increase significantly thefunding forresearch ,development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy ,ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis ontheneeds ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making useof
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Developments (WCED )report ,"OurCommon Future ",including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts ,monitoring ,research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

-38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement /theWorking Groupe reports
andthefull Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere :Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )are made available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception ofthe issues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
envi ronment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing the crucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developments
24.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39-
-theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
-theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.The substance ofthe convention mentioned under 24above (and of
associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse issue isconcerned could
probably consist in :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies and toreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onalltheaspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions onthewayhowtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects oftheissue .
Inthis respect ,itisworth stressing theglobal ,complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (seeAnnex ):
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change ,including policy responses toit,andanumber of
other issues ,above allinthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion ,andhence bycountry ,ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect theeffort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

-40-
Thereport oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not,however ,beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomunity asawhole infacing it.
Still less should itencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into "winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ."
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures (i.e. measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures maybeclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational level and require
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofCC^emissions );
(b)those which maybetaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural andforest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

-41
<c)those ofanintermediate character (e.g. decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted ,taking account of (a)andofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Measures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.The above mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential for two reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change and itsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen ,when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain astherange ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial toknow
-which danger ,when andwhere ,onehastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment ,theeconomy ,thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore ,thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel ,andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo.
Only inthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process ,bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
and needs .

-42-
Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with the study oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with theimpacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised intheframe ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially ontheclimatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,the cloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources andsinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshelves .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress ontheimpacts which climate change could have
onimportant sectors ofthe European environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and itsimpacts onthe European coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems andcoastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops and forests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased COgand
climate change ,theimpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects oftheclimate change asregards theprogressive
aridif ication oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,theimpact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-43-
(4)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources /theimpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail andfrost onEuropean
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themelting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthesocial /economic andpolitical factors conditioning
'probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,andlikely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
duetoclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcostline regions of
the sea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded andtohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system anditssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
34.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCOgisconcerned ,theobjective canalsobeachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy andtheefficient and
economic useofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification foraspecific energy
R&Dprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar.

-44
35.Elimination ofCC^atthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
available .
Newdirections forresearch inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCC^problem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .Thefirst aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced andthepace ofthat
reduction .The implementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Envi ronment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
Climate models arethere toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment and tohelp construct scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute the impact ontheeconomic
systems ofthe costs incurred bythe reduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed intheSystem Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthedirection defined above foranalysing
energy related CO^emissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
The aim ofsuch research would betoevaluate thefeasibility andthe
costs ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ontheenergy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first atreducing the rate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations and inthe longer term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

-45-
38.Theonly wayathand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incaseofCOg,
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothemost
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39.Carbon dioxide (CO^)emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,CO^emissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning andforest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )and in
the forestry andagricultural sectors asfar asaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests .
Atentative list ofactions aiming atCC^emissions reduction which
could bestudied might include :
A.Energy related measures forCO.,
There areseveral types oftechnical energy related measures that
could curb CO^emissions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse not allthose measures areequally efficient or
cost-effective and one should make aclear distinction between the
physical potential ofCO^emission reduction ofagiven measure and
itseconomic viability .
Thefollowing technical measures ,which arelisted without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce CC^emissions from
carbon-based fuels :
a.Energy Efficiency
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars ,electronic
regulations ,etc.);

46
-improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHD,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuel switching toless CO^emitting fuels (therelation ofCO^
emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oilandnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased use ofnon carbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCO2atmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO^technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing COgemissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used inthepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuseofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve CC^reduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
B.Measures related toforestry andnatural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest fires ;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry ,especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs Missions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
41.CH^,N^OMissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
c.Minimize NgOemission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
^0release from nitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible use ofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-impacts arelikely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointhe short term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49-
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover ,even inqualitative and
simple way,alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However ,itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea~level rise andforimpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation measures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Seawalls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
“Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
-Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
45.Examples ofmeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland usetooptimise andtostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management ,such assoil erosion
control ,water management ,etc .
Cooperation with developing countries
46.Alltheabove measures ,both asregards preventive action and asregards
planned adaptation ,should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries ,andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation ,conserving wetlands ,coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

50-
b)bytaking into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which may beaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base line data being gathered forthepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthegreenhouse effect .

-51
IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer andtheMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision ,
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bytheToronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthefuture protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets forlimiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
50.Therefore ,theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy-options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications andimpacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forCO-emission ceilings .

52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
The focus oftheexercise should beonEurope inafirst instance .
-establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabilistically policy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models andtheexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely linked tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
*
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views andrapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem ,theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy ,
involving inparticular developing countries ,towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP andofOECD andIEA.
52.TheCommunity anditsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors relevant to
theissue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

-53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency improvement ,
development ofnewenergy sources ,useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCO^reductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit CO^emissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded intheframe ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries andof
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
envi ronment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaidto
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc.Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
-Thegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment andinbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

-54-
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess the long-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
increased ,inrespect ofthetype ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect may make more likely . (Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .)Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies oneshould ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothe work needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions ofthe Community
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onalltheaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States and the
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

-55-
ANHEX
Recent major events onthegreenhouse issue

-56-
A.The "VILLACH "Conference (International conference onthe assessment and
therate ofCO.,andofother greenhouse gases incliaate variations and
associated impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference was jointly convened byUNEP ,WMO andICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthe statement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic andsocial decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past climatic data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothe future .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthe next century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable due topast
actions ,the rate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models for adoubling ofthe
atmospheric CO^concentration could haveprofound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea ice."

-57-
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account theresults ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development ,environmental
programmes ,andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
"Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change andsea level ,including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless ,theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases :climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofDr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bytheCEC,DGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric CC^andother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthescientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent andcasual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

-58-
-Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts ,decision
makers andthescientific community involved intheissue ."
C.Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
CVillach ~Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 andBellagio -Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses forlimiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned inparagraph 28ofthis document ,the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
"Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
(1)Ozone Protocol Immediate approval andimplementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (thereby reducing
CFCemissions ).Recommend that itberatified urgently andthat
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
ofthe schedule for reductions inCFCs and eventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gas limitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency ,reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing CO2
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan ,1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture ,

-59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc.Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason formeasures toreduce deforestation .
(A)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial andsocietal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills thatemitmethane ;NgO
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc.
Immediate steps tolimit the impact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic andsoil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning for large newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms ofCO^equivalence )andthus to
theemissions andforeach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbeset in
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

-60-
(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming maycall for a
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities ,
both with regard toglobal climate and itsvariability andsea-level
changes ,atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry ,aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what newclimate observing system activites are required for
monitoring thechanging climate ;
-what activities arerequired formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
The IOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea-level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU ,UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP),
which isthe focus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP,astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly ,thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ),initiated byICSU ,addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofimportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP andIGBP
should begiven high priority .*

-61
0.TheBrundtland Commission's report
TheWorld Commission onenvironment andDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
"-improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins ,
mechanisms ,andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes andrising sealevel ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aimatan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E„TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofC02in
the atmosphere :
"TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc.
B2-1430 /84).
/

62-
-having regard tothe report oftheCommittee onEnergy ,Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc .A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth 'saverage
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning ,intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up ,which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator ,will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing outthat theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethescale thereof andthus the
number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
D.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment oftheworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthe changes taking place ,andthe
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
andtoexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures are directed atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,the latter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy and innegotiations with
both national and international authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

63-
3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational useofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls foraworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anend tothe deforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
6.Calls ontheCouncil when drawing upthenewframework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothearea ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon theindustrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which are largely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with therelevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthereport of
itscommittee totheCouncil andtheCommission ."

1
Kommissionens arbejdsprogram om
enanalyse afmulighederne for at
imødegå risiciene forbundet med "drivhuseffekten "
I.PROGRAMMETS INDHOLD
Meddette program somudgangspunkt skulle det være muligt atbestemme ,hvil ¬
ken rolle Fællesskabet ogdets medlemsstater vil kunne spille iderelevante
internationale kredse medhensyn til atfastsætte ogfremme defornødne for¬
anstaltninger tilatimødegå risiciene itilknytning tildrivhuseffekten .
Arbejdsprogrammet omfatter følgende emner :
A.Indkredsning afdemulige foranstaltninger til atforebygge /begrænse
emissionen afdrivhusgasser
Foranstaltningerne tilatrealisere strategiske målforbegrænsning af
emissionen afforskellige drivhusgasser vilblive fastlagt .Dette vil
forhver enkelt drivhusgas betyde endetaljeret vurdering afdefore ¬
liggende muligheder foremissionsbegrænsning ,afdetniveau foremissions
begrænsning ,somhver enkelt aktionsmulighed vilkunne medføre ,samt af
deforanstaltninger ,derbehøves tilatrealisere destrategiske mål .
Mulighederne forforebyggelse /begrænsning afemissionerne vilblive gen¬
nemgået forfølgende sektorer :

-2-
-gnergifremsti lling
-energi forbrug (herunder transport )
-industriproduktion
-anvende Iseafprodukter
-Undbrugsakt iviteter .
Derskal vælges enfremgangsmåde ,somtager højde fordeforskellige landes el¬
lerlandegruppers særlige situation .Navnlig følgende skal tages ibetragtning :
-detøkonomiske udviklingsstade
-denaktuelle energipolitik
-degeografiske forhold .
B.Konsekvenserne afdeforskel lige muligheder foremissionsbegrænsning
Hver enkelt aktionsmulighed medhensyn til atnedbringe emissionen vilblive
gennemgået medhenblik påatvurdere følgende aspekter :
-deteknsike ogindustrielle konsekvenser
-definansielle ogøkonomiske konsekvenser
-depolitiske ,institutionelle ogsamfundsmæssige konsekvenser .
C.Udvikling afenrammestruktur forbeslutningsanalyse
Dervilblive udviklet enraimestruktur ,hvori aldenforeliggende viden omalle aspekterne af
drivhusproblematikken kansamles ,således atdesandsynlige fordele (iform
afmindskelse afrisikoen forklimaændringer osv.)veddeforskellige aktions ¬
muligheder kanindkredses .Denne struktur vilomfatte :
-emissioner ogemissionsbegrænsning
-konsekvenserne afbegrænsningen
-deforeliggende videnskabelige data omdemulige fordele vedalternative
former foremissionsbekæmpelse .

-3-
Rammestrukturen vilblive udformet således ,atdertages hensyn tilusikker ¬
hedsmomenterne omkring emissionerne ,bekæmpelsesforanstaltningernes effekti ¬
vitet ,klimaændringerne ogvirkningerne heraf ,ogsåledes atdemest sand¬
synlige resultater afdeforskellige foranstaltninger vilkunne beregnes .
Inden fordenne ramme vildettillige være muligt atundersøge konsekvenserne
afeneventuel udsættelse afforanstaltningerne .Ved atstrukturere problemet
ogindkredse deusikkerhedsmomenter ,somharstørst indflydelse påresultater ¬
ne,vildenne rammestruktur kunne tjene sometvigtigt værktøj til atevaluere
deforskellige aktioner ogfokusere denfremtidige forskning pådevigtigste
spørgsmål .
0.Vurdering vedhjælp afenrammestruktur for beslutningsanalyse afdesand ¬
synlige fordele veddeforskellige aktionsmuligheder ogopstilling afklima -
ogkonsekvensscenarier fordeforskellige emissionsbekæmpelsesmuligheder
Rammstrukturen vilblive anvendt til atindkredse demulige resultater afde
alternative aktionsmuligheder foremissionsbegrænsning ogtidspunkterne her¬
for (scenarier ).Denvilsamtidig vise denrelative sandsynlighed for,at
deforskellige fordele vilkunne opnås .
E.Fastsættelse ogvurdering aftilpasningsforanstaltninger ,derbehøves under
deforskellige scenarier ,someromhandlet iafsnit Dovenfor
Påtrods afemissionsbekæmpelsesaktionerne vilderstadig være risiko forbun ¬
detmedtidligere emissioner ogfortsatte emissioner ifremtiden .Detvilder¬
forvære nødvendigt atfastlægge tilpasningsforanstaltninger (dvs .aktioner
tilbeskyttelse afmennesker ,ejendom oglandbrug ),somkanafbøde disse risi¬
ci.Dealvorligste afdisse "resterende "risici vilblive vurderet oglokali ¬
seret ,ogdeomkostnings -ogtidsmæssige konsekvenser afforskellige tilpas ¬
ningsforanstaltninger vilblive evalueret .Detvilvære nødvendigt atopstil ¬
letilpasningsforanstaltningerne ienprioriteringsrækkefølge foratsikre ,
atderesterende risici imødegås bedst muligt meddisponible ressourcer ,og
for atsikre ,atindsatsen koncentreres omdevigtigste problemer .

-4-
II.DETALJERET LISTE OVER AKTIVITETERNE
Gennemførelsen afdette program vilbl.a .indebære følgende aktiviteter :
A.Forudberegning afemissioner ogaktionsmuligheder medhenblik piemissions -
begrænsning
i)Forberedelse afemissionsprognoser forhver enkelt drivhusgas .Disse
emissioner børanalyseres for (a)geografiske omrider og (b)politiske ,
strategiske ogøkonomiske landegrupper .
ii)Bestemmelse afdefaktorer (bortset frabekæmpelsesforanstaltninger ),
dervilkunne indvirke pådenfremtidige emission .Bedømmelse afsand¬
synligheden forsidanne faktorers indvirkning ogudvikling afalterna ¬
tive emissionsscenarier .
iii)Indkredsning afdebestående emissionsbekæmpelsesmuligheder forhver
enkelt drivhusgas .Vurdering afomfanget afdemulige emissionsbe ¬
grænsninger under deforskellige emissionsscenarier .
B.Vurdering afkonsekvenserne afdeforskellige emissionsbekæmpelsesmuligheder
i)Bestemmelse afpraktisk gennemførlighed ,omkostninger ogtidsplan for
hver enkelt emissionsbegrænsningsforanstaltning .
ii)Vurdering afdesamfundsmæssige ogøkonomiske virkninger .
iii)Vurdering afdistributionsvirkninger (a)ideenkelte lande ,(b)mellem
landede ,(c)mellem politiske ogstrategiske landegrupper .
C.Skabelse afenrammestruktur forintegrering afoplysninger ,derindhentes
iforbindelse medarbejdsprogrammet

-5-
Denne rammestruktur skal udformes således ,atdenkan :
-vise konsekvenserne afalternative aktionsmuligheder ,herunder omkostnin ¬
ger ogpotentielle fordele
-vise konsekvenser afindgreb påforskellige tidspunkter
-vise gennemførligheden afmulige beslutninger (vedrørende bekæmpelsesstra ¬
tegier eller tilpasningsstrategier )under hensyntagen tilusikkerhedsmomen ¬
terne iprognoserne ogdevidenskabelige data
-vise hvilken yderligere forskning ,derbehøves for attilvejebringe det
nødvendige beslutningsgrundlag .
D.Envurdering afemissionsbekæmpelsesstrategierne
i)Indkredsning afdesandsynligste fordele vedemissionsbekæmpelsesstra ¬
tegierne .Hertil kræves enkritisk gennemgang afdemekanismer ,hvor ¬
veddrivhusgaskoncentrationerne erknyttet tildenglobale opvarmning .
Opmærksomheden skal særlig rettes modtilbagekoblingssystemerne ,tids ¬
aspekterne ogkonsekvenserne forregionale klimaforhold .
ii)Sandsynlighedsvurdering ,påbasis afdenkritiske gennemgang ,afde
alternative prognoser ogdisses konsekvenser .Dette arbejde børbygge
påudtalelser fradevigtigste eksperter påområdet ,ogdeforskellige
alternative prognoser vil,hvis deterpraktisk gennemførligt ,blive
tildelt ensandsynlighedsskala ,somkanafspejle usikkerhedsmomenterne
ved deforskellige resultater .
iii)Pågrundlag afdisse oplysninger ogdata omemissionsbegrænsning (A)
ogkonsekvenserne heraf (B)vildenunder Comhandlede beslutningsram ¬
meblive anvendt til atvurdere alternative emissionsbekæmpelsesmulig ¬
heder ogdisses omkostninger ,fordele ogandre konsekvenser .

-6-
E.Vurdering aftilpasningsforanstaltninger
i)Gennemgang afforskellige opvarmningsniveauers konsekvenser for
infrastrukturerne oglevnedsmiddelforsyningerne iEuropa ;ind¬
kredsning afandre vigtige konsekvenser .Vurdering afvirkninger ¬
nepaandre politiske eller økonomiske landegrupper .
ii)Gennemgang afdeaktioner ,dervilkunne iværksættes medhenblik
påatimødegå demulige ændringer (i)iEuropa (f.eks .nyeaf¬
grødesorter ,ændret såningspraksis osv.).
iii)Vurdering afomkostningerne ogudbyttet vedalternative tilpas ¬
ningsforanstaltninger påbasis afdenunder (D)omhandlede vurde ¬
ring ogmedanvendelse afdenunder (C)omhandlede rammestruktur ;
vurdering afsandsynligheden for,atsådanne tilpasningsforan ¬
staltninger vilvære effektive under hensyntagen tildeforudsete
virkninger .
III .RETNINGSLINJER FOR PROGRAMMETS GENNEMFØRELSE
A.Vedgennemførelsen afdette program vilKommissionen fuldt udtage hen¬
syntilandre relevante aktiviteter ,både iFællesskabet ogiverden
somhelhed ,somf.eks .:
-EF-forskningsprogrammet forklimatologi ognaturkatastrofer
-resultaterne afnylige internationale konferencer (f.eks .konferen ¬
cenomatmosfæren iforandring ,Toronto ,juni 1988 )
-UNEP /WMO-arbejdsgruppen vedrørende klimaændringer
osv .
Idette øjemed vilKommissionen skabe passende samarbejde medrelevan ¬
teorganisationer ,derbeskæftiger sigmeddisse aktiviteter .

B.Medbistand fradet iafgørelsens artikel 1omhandlede udvalg vilKom¬
missionen fastlægge ,hvilke procedurer ogkonkrete skridt der skal tages
medhensyn tildette arbejdsprogram ,sivel somhvilke oplysninger ,med¬
lemsstaterne skal tilvejebringe .
Relevante organisationer ogmyndigheder imedlemsstaterne vilblive knyt ¬
tet tilarbejdet via detovennævnte udvalg .
FINANSIERING AFPROGRAMMET
Detbeløb ,derskønnes nødvendigt tilgennemførelsen afprogrammet ,
andrager 6mio ECU .

Udkast
RÅdsts resolution omdrIvhuaproblsm^t lkkan oaFællesskabet
Rådet forDeEuropnlske Fællesskaber ,
som henviser til Traktaten omOprettelse afDet Europæiske økonomiske
Fællesskab ,»omhenviser tiludkast tilresolution ,forelagt afKommis ¬
sionen ,og
som tager følgende Ibetragtning :
Traktaten omOprettelse afDetEuropa Iskeøkonomiske Fallesskab ,andret ved
DenEuropa IskeFalles Akt ,Indeholder bestemmelser omudvikling oggennem ¬
førelse afenfellesskabspol ItIkpåmiljøområdet samt bestemmelser om,at
Fellesskabet vedudarbejdelsen afforanstaltninger pådette område skal
tage hensyn til deeksisterende videnskabelige ogtekniske data og
fordelene ogulemperne ved foranstaltningernes gennemførelse eller mang¬
lende gennemførelse ;
denne resolution bygger påbetragtningerne Iresolutionen af19.oktober
1987 omethandlingsprogram for Det Europalske Fallesskab påmiljø ¬
området ^, hvorefter der erbehov for foranstaltninger påetpassende
niveau ogbehov foratsamordne arbejdet påInternationalt plan ,atvurdere
fordele ogomkostninger veddepåtankte foranstaltninger oggøre passende
tekniske ogpolitiske forberedelser tilsådanne foranstaltninger ;
deforeliggende videnskabelige data ,navnlig resultaterne afFellesskabets
mlIJøfor8knlngaprogrammer ,viser ,atatmosferens sammensætning er lferd
medatendre sigbetydelig somfølge atmenneskelige aktiviteter ;Ihenhold
tildeforeliggende klimamodeller kandette ,somfølge afdensåkaldte
drivhuseffekt ,medføre klimaændringer ,derindebærer betydelige virkninger
påmiljøet ,påmenneskene ogpådisses aktiviteter ;
Ibetragtning afdrivhusprob lernet ikkens artogomfanget afrisiciene for¬
bundet hermed erdetvigtigt hurtigst muligt atundersøge mulighederne for
foranstaltninger tilforebyggelse eller mindskelse afdisse risici ;

2
pånyliga Internationale konferencer omemnet erder nået tilmeget bred
enighed ombshovat for hurtigst muligt ,atoverveje foranstaltninger til
mindskelse afemissionen afdrivhusgasser ;
Ibetragtning afdr Ivhusprob lemat Ikkena kompleksitet ogdsmange ogvldt -
rakkenda konsekvenser afsåvel drivhuseffekten eom af demulige for¬
anstaltninger til atforebygge eller afbød® konsekvenserne heraf erdet
væsentligt ,atder foretages forudgående undorsøgelsa afdeforeliggende
aktionsmuligheder ;danne bør bygge påegned® metodo log ier ,hvori der
navnlig tagsa passende hensyn til ti®fortsat bestående usikkerhedsmomenter
omkring flere afaspskterna afdette emne ;
det erafstørst® vigtighed ,stFællesskabet ogdets medlemsstater kan yde
etafgørende bidrag tilovervejelserne over ogudarbejdelsen afdebeslut ¬
ninger ,som senere skal trsffaa Iderelevante Internationale Instanser ,
således strisikoen for kIImaændr Inger kan Imødegås pådenmost effektive
måde ;
blfa Ider Kommissionens meddelelse om "dr Ivhuaprob lemat Ikken ogFælles ¬
skabet "ogtilslutter sigdevigtigste konklusioner oghenstillinger heri ;
orklerer .atFællesskabet børhellige risikoen forklimaændringer Bom følge
afdrivhuseffekten voksende opmærksomhed ,ogatdøt bør bidraga væsentligt
tilovervejelserne ogdrøftelserne vedrørende mulighederne for atimødegå
denne risiko ;
bifalder Kommissionens Initiativ til atIværksatte etarbejdsprogram for
bedømmelse afmulighederne for atImødegå risikoen forbundet med drivhus ¬
effekten ogtilslutter sigmålsætningerne meddette program ;
opfordrer medlenwtaterne til atsamarbejd© aktivt med Kommissionen om
gennemføre Ieen afdetovennævnte arbejdsprogram ogatsamordne deres rele¬
vante aktiviteter vedrørende drivhusproblematikken Inden for disse rammer ;
opfordrer Kommleslonen til Inden midten af1090 atforelægge Rådet og
Europa-Far lamentet en fremakr Idtarappor tog Inden udgangen af1991 en
slutrapport omresultaterne afarbejdsprogrammet ogomkonklusionerne
heraf .