Milford chronicle., 1963-12-27

bubson's 1864 Forecast

of civil-rights bill will be
passed by Congress during 1864
The Administration wants tc
please the South and hold its
Democratic votes there, but the
civil-rights bill now before Con-
gress is not satisfactory to the
white people of the North. There
fore, I forecast that whatever
civil-rights bill is passed before
the election of 1864 will be con-
siderably watered down.
5. NEGRO PEOPLE. The
Negroes will continue to make
progress and get more, but
predict that the gains will have
to come largely through chang
ing attitudes of the people
Otherwise, the situation will be
much like the prohibition prob
lem which the good people of the
nation thought could be solved by
legislation. Such reforms take
place only as the minds and
hearts Of the people are changed
for the better.
s. GOVERNMENT SPEND
ING. Of course, in the long run,
the survival of a nation should
depend upon its spending less
than it takes in. Nowadays, how
ever, ii is questionable for
consumers or government to
have balanced budgets. There
fore, predict that 1864 will see
a bigger deficit than this year. S.
z. DEPRESSION. Whether fol
better or for worse, the voters
have been taught to believe they
can and should get something
for nothing, and only a severe
depression could ultimately
change this belief. I, however,
look for no depression in 1864.
8. AGRICULTURAL OUT
LOOK. Although crops, prices,
and farm income may be basical-
ly dependent on the weather,
much Of the world is short of
food. Russia's and China's heavy
purchases of grains will do more
to bolster U. S. farm income than
will governments upporte d
prices in 1864.
9. DOW JONES INDUS
TRIALS. forecast that the stock
market as measured by the Dow
Jones Average will make a new
high in 1864, but may sell lower
after the elections. However,
readers must remember that the
Dow-Jones Industrial list, which
everyone seems to think repre-
sents the market, may be very
deceptive.
10. SPECULATIVE STOCKS.
OF the approximately 1850 stocks
listed on the New York Stock
Exchange, a majority has been
going down while the DoW-Jones
list of 80 which everyone watch
es has been going up. This is
due to the purchase ofDow-Jones
issues today largely by trustees,
pension funds, mutual companies,
and others that prefer fairly con-
servative and dividend-paying
companies. forecast that stocks
not in the Dow Jones list will do
better proportionately in 1864
than they did this year.
II. SWITCHING. Based on my
above forecast, and having
learned that only buying can send
stocks up, I predict that 1864
may prove to be a good year to
switch from some of the over
crowded Dow-JoneS stocks into
other issues that are now over
looked.
IL. GOVERNMENT BONDS.
The only government bonds that
interest me are the long-term
ones which may now be pur-
chased at discount to use in
payment at par for death taxes.
! forecast that more govern
ments will be issued during 1864
and that their prices may grad
ually sag as money becomes
tighter.
Is. CORPORATION BONDS.
Those buying corporate bonds
should either stick to issues of
under five years maturity o
keep their money in the savings
bank. l predict that long-term
corporation bonds will drop in
price in 1864 as interest rates
rise.
IA. TAX-EXEMPT BONDS.
Likewise, l predict that long
term tax-exempt bonds will de-
cline next year. They are even
more overpriced than corpora
tion bonds, because of heavy
bank buying during the past two
years. I do not look for this
to be repeated in 1864. There
fore, | would certainly confine
buying Of tax-exempts to short
maturities; and / would avoid
revenue bonds.
Is. INTEREST RATES. Ifore-
cast that interest rates will con-
tinue at least as high as today,
and will possibly rise through
1864 in order to keep gold here
in this country and uphold the
value Of the dollar.
16. DEVALUATION OF GOLD.
! forecast that there will be no
devaluation of gold during 1864.
| am personally acquainted with
conditions in Africa, and will
say that those who wish to spec
ulate in gold mines should con-
slider American-South African
Investment Co. Ltd. Readers
should remember, however, that