Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1963-02-27
FRONTIERS OF FREEDOM w 2M
Myths About Red China

of China's needs and resources
notably its tremendous popula-
ton, but foundered on two
technical difficulties.
One was that the commune
idea spread too fast for eff
Gent organization. When 1t be-
gan In Honan province. 1t
caught public Imagination as a
quick jump to pure commu-
nism - from each according
to his ability and to each &C
cording to his needs. 1t sounded
like the ultimate welfare state.
The communes spread like q
flood through the country.
The other difficulty was sta
tistical. Local bureaucrats ex-
aggerated their production fig
ures to make a good showing
against their high quotas. The
cumulated errors resulted in the
impossible 1858 harvest total
announced as 375 million tons.
Believing its own figures, the
Communist regime speeded UP
its industrialization program,
building new plants to be fin
anced, it thought, out of sur
plus agricultural production.
Farm acreage was cut back, in
fact, to prevent anticipated
over-production.
Setback In 1860
The crash came late in 1860.
The Chinese government admit
ted the 1858 harvest had been
overestimated and cut back the
official total by one third, to
$50 million tons. Outside OBJ
servers think the 1858 harvest
was actually about 100 million
to 200 million tons. That total
still would have been the big
gest harvest in Chinese history,
but 1t was not enough to sup
ply China's own needs, much
less finance a construction
boom.
Floods and droughts, COM
bined with bad management !,
based on bad statistics, caused
poor harvests in 1859, 1860 and
1861.
The government, in a drastic
remedy, halted industrializa-
ton so suddenly that a foreign
observer said the country looked
like Pompeii after the eruption
Of Mount Vesuvius. Erection Of |,
buildings was halted at every
stage Of construction, as If by
a blanket order from Picking.
Industrial capacity was cut
more than 80 per cent, and 20
million to 30 million persons
were taken off industrial jobs
and sent back to the farms.
The rural communes we're split
into smaller units, and farm
ers were permitted to operate
private plots once more.
Another step was to presume
a national birth control pro-
gram, interrupted when the
great leap forward" began and
the theory was that the huge
and growing population was
China's single greatest resource.
New Estimates
Outside observers now esti-
mate the 1862 harvest at
around 200 million tons, about
the 1857 level with allowance
for the population increase
since then. Grain purchases
from the West are continuing.
Steel production was still
dropping in 1862. rom a peak
of Is million tons in 1860, 1t
sank below 10 million tons. But
these figures must be compared
to the totals Of 2.8 million in
1855 and SO million in 1857.
Looking back at the economic
difficulties, the trouble can be
likened to the flight of an air.
plane. Managers Of the econ
omy overestimated its forward
thrust. tried to climb too fast,
and went into q stall. I
AS In aeronautics, an econ
omy can come out Of a stall
without crashing If it has
reached a sufficient altitude.
In China's case, the upturn
seems to have occurred in time.
The economy is making a grad
ual recovery. The big question