Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1963-12-15
7% Drop Seen
In "a BuiIdinu
Of Apartments
By DANIEL POOLE
Star STAFF Writer

By DANIEL POOLE
Star StaH Writer
CHICAGO, Dec. 14.-Apart-
ment construction In 1854 may
fall as much as 7 per cent be-
hind this years record break-
ing volume, an economist
warned the Nations home bull
ders today.
Despite predictions by many
surveys and top Government
officials that q continued
apartment boom Is expected to
spur another gain In houses
built next year. Norman Rob-
ertSon, an economist with the
Mellon National Bank & Trust
Co. Of New York, said:
Although the momentum
behind the apartment boom
should carry the rate of multi
family starts upward through
the early months Of 1854, over
building and less easy financ-
ing may force q moderate slow
down late In the year. As q re-
suit, the number Of apartment
units started In 1884 Is expect
ed to drop by about 7 per cent
from the 1868 figure Of SIS, 900
units"
Sees Housing Stability
Addressing O session OF the
goth anniversary convention of
the National Association Of
Home Builders, Mr.. Robertson
also said that, barring any new
shocks to consumer and bust
ness confidence, there are rea-
sons to expect that 1854 will be
another good year for housing.
He added:
"Single-family house con-
struction should continue to
show the same general pattern
Of stability as In the past sever
al years, with volume In 1854
expected to range within one
or two percentage points of the
estimated 1868 figure Of l,025,-
900 units. For the year in to-
tai, housing starts should ap-
proximate 100000. with one
family units accounting for
about / million units and
apartments the other $4,000
units"
Dc. Apartment Boom
Mr.. Robertson said the
apartment boom during the
last three years has been CEN
tered in seven metropolitan
areaS-Washington, New York,
Los Angeles, San Francisco,
Chicago, Denver and Philadel-
phia-which accounted for
about 65 per cent Of all apart
ment construction in the Ma
ton.
OF the seven metropolitan
areas, only the two In Canfor-
MIA have continued to exper-
fence large increases In apart
ment construction.
The Washington area re-
manned steady and the others
showed appreciable declines be-
cause Of saturation and over
building.
This analysis leads to the
conclusion that q portion of
the exceptionally high volume
of residential building in 1868
may well have been at the ex-
pense Of 1884," said Mr.. Rob-
ertson.
Higher Interest Rates
Another convention speaker,
Harry 8. Schwartz, director of
research for the Federal Home
Loan Bank Borad, said he ex-
poets to see an increase next
year in most long-term interest
rates because Of q tax cut and
possible private spending In
creaSes. But he added:
Mortgage rates are not like
ly to move up as promptly or
as much as other long-term
rates in the next year. Until re-
Gently, mortgage rates have
been continuing to decline.
Even If the savings flow slows
somewhat, or II mortgage de-
mand begins to outrun supply,
we are more likely to see tigh-
tening In credit standards be-
fore there Is any appreciahfe
increase In rates"
At o final session today, the
home builders adopted . policy
statement which said ways will
be sought to SOlve the problem
Of housing moderate and low
income families through cost
cutting and research.
The statement added: 1.-THE
homo building industry will
continue to cooperate IN COM
munity-wide educational pro-
grams to eliminate prejudices
affecting the housing markets
and will continue to do it, part
in practical efforts to provide
good housing for all Amert-
cans"