Evening star., 1962-01-15

have been made. however. So
studies are offered as the best
available substitute for sheer
conjecture.
First of all, how many Amer
leans would die?
Some Pentagon estimates say
that depending on the circum-
stances Of the war, the toll
could range anywhere from 5
or 10 million up to $50 million.
(This leaves out what many
strategists believe Is the most
unlikely nuclear war" in which
each side would lob one or two
missiles at the other as q threat
and warning and then negoti-
ate a settlement0
The low estimate stems from
assumptions that the war would
come in the near future, that
both sides deliberately would
avoid killing civilians, that
there would be a good civil de-
fense program and that the
enemy attack would not be a
surprise.
The high estimates assume
that the war starts after the
enemy has enlarged its nuclear
force considerably. that Amer
1can cities are deliberately de-
stroyed that the new civil de-
tense program has been a fail
ure and that the enemy
achieves complete surprise.
"DoOmsday" Weapons
Some military men say that
1t Is technically feasible in the
next 10 years for the enemy to
develop "doomSday" weapons
that could kill virtually every
American no matter what this
country did. This story looks
only as for as the end Of this
decade, however.
The two wartime variables
that would affect the death rate
the most are the enemy's STRAIT
egy and United States civil de-
fenSe.
If the enemy tries to destroy
American cities along with
bomber and missile bases, about
100 million more Americans
could be killed than in an at
tack confined to this country's
long-range striking forces, ac-
cording to Pentagon calcula-
tions.
No one knows which strategy
the enemy would use. Many
top Pentagon planners say the
city-destroying strategy seems
to be the current Soviet choice,
but q city-avoiding strategy ID
more in the Kremlin's own self
1sh interest. By saving Amer
lean cities Russian leaders
could increase the chances that
their own would be spared
American retaliatory strikes.
A civil defense program would
make q substantial, but less
dramatic difference in lives
saved.
Save 1918 Million Lives
Last summer when Secretary
Of Defense McNamara ex-
planned the first phase Of his
shelter program to Congress
marking and stocking Of exist
ing shelter space-he said it
could save 10 million to IS mil
lion lives. The program was to
provide so million shelter
spaces, largely in cities. Mr..
McNamara seemed to be as
Suming q city-destroying war.
The proposed program for
the fiscal year starting July /
would add 20 million spaces. It
is expected that private efforts
would provide even more shell
ter. A greater proportion Of
these spaces would be away
from the hearts Of cities.
The administration would
rather not estimate the number
Of lives that could be saved by
the construction program, how
ever. The variables are too
many.
Non-governmental civil de-
tense specialists say the pro-
gram--if it is carried out sue
cessfully-might save 80 to 50
per cent Of the people sheltered
even In o war against cities.
In a city-sparing war q major
percentage of the sheltered
people could be saved.
What would kill the nuclear-
war victims?
Very roughly half would die
from radioactive fallout, the
rest from the blast effect oi
the nuclear explosion, from fire
(the ball Of fire created by the
weapon Itself and the fires
started farther away from the
intense heat) and from direct
radiation.
Effectiveness Of Shelters
Tho shelters planned by thu
administration would be oi
little use in the area Of great
blast, fire and direct radiation
damage. They are designed tc
be useful largely against fall.
out.
Many persons close to the