Evening star., 1961-05-07
BY DAVID S. BRODER
Star Staff Writer


Like the Civil War, the election
campaign of 1860 refuses to be
forgotten. For two full months last
fan, it entertained, aggravated
and excited the American people
to a degree no other recent elec-
ton has matched.
= Even the poSt-mortemS on this
eventful campaign are provoca-
tive. as was proved again recently
by the reaction that greeted
the first report on the 1860 elec-
ton from the highly respected
University of Michigan Survey
Research Center.
The findings OF researchers
Angus Campbell, Phillip E. Con-
verse, Warren E. Miller and DON
aid E. Stokes came as a Jolt to
politicians and political writer's
who have been putting President
Kennedy's victory down to Skillful
manipulation of the religious is
sue" and the failure of former
Vice President Nixon to begin his
finishing kick" soon enough.
In fact, the only point on which
this research team agreed with
other experts" was the impact
: of the TV debates between the
candidates.
Influence Of Debotes
Their interviews with a cross
section of some $500 voters found
nearly 80 per cent of them had
seen at least one of the debates
and, among those whose opinions
were changed, twice as many
were impressed by Mr.. Kennedy
as by Mr.. Nixon.
The Michigan researchers re-
port dealt a hard blow to those
who have argued that Mr.. Nixon
was closing the gap on Mr.. Ken
nedy in the last two weeks of the
campaign and might have won
the election if he and President
Eisenhower had begun their
windup effort little sooner.
The survey reported that Mr..
Nixon was the choice of 81 per
cent of the voters who had made
up their minds by the time the
conventions were over.
But more than one-third of the
electorate-the highest proportion
of any of the four presidential
elections they have studied-held
off their decision until the cam
paign was under way.
Mr.. Kennedy won SIS per cent
of the votes of those who say they
decided some time during the
campaign. During the final two
weeks and even on the final day
before the election, the Michigan
study indicates, Mr.. Kennedy
picked up two votes for every one
that went to Mr.. Nixon.
By far the most controversial
conclusion of the University of
Michigan survey was its state
ment that controversy over his
Catholic religion caused the PreSi-
dent a net loss of at least is
million votes.
Religion on Advantage?
Most political observers, noting
the parallel between Mr.. Ken
nedy's margin and the size of the
Catholic population, had concluded
that his religion was probably an
advantage to him in the voting.
Earlier this month, the research
staff Of the Republican National
Committee said that comparison
of the 1860 presidential voting
with that of the two previous
elections made it apparent that
the most pronounced switch found
among any identifiable group Of
voters occurred among Catholics"
adding that "a fair estimate would
be that Mr.. Kennedy received 6
million more votes from Catholics
than did (Adlai Stevenson in
1856, out of a total increase Of 8
million in the Democratic preSi-
Dental vote"
The University of Michigan po-
litical scientists rejected this and
similar arguments chiefly on the
grounds that the 1856 election is
a bizarre choice" for a basis of
comparison. The Eisenhower vote
that year, they assert, was the
most disproportionately Republi-
can vote" in any presidential or
congressional election since 1923.
They offer as the proper base