Evening star., 1961-08-06
Experts Vary
On Estimates
OF Red Power
BY RICHARD FRYKLUND
Star staff Writer

BY RICHARD FRYkLUND
Star staff Writer
Military men agreed that
Russian soldiers are not "l212
feet tall" as Secretary of De-
fense Mcnamara put it last
week, but the experts do rate
them in non-nuclear war as
being anywhere from Six-feet-
two up to above eight feet tall.
And they agree that the Rus
sian army is trained for Is fast
rounds, while NATO would be
counting on a fast knockout.
These are the sort of COM
parsons being made today as
American and allied military
men prepare for a possible
clash with the Communists over
Berlin.
Just what the Communists
non-nuclear strength could be
in a Berlin showdown is dis
puted, and the size of the
American and allied buildup is
now uncertain. Therefore, es-
Inmates of comparative NATO !
and Soviet strength differ.
Opinions Clash
The comparison is made even
more difficult by administra-
ton statements that nuclear
weapons are not ruled out in
the event Berlin must be de-
Tended.
Today tn two sides probably
stack up like this:
In non-nuclear ground
strength, the two are roughly
even. The experts agree that
the Russians have about 20
divisions in East Germany,
while the West has about 20
larger divisions. ct is assumed
that satellite divisions would be
a handicap, rather than a help,
to the RuSsianS.)
In the air, the West probably
has an edge in quality and num-
berS.
The total number of Soviet |
divisions, according to an un-
classified Army intelligence es-
innate, is $50, of which 100 are
combat, the rest training or
skeleton divisions. None of the
100 is at full strength.
Another Estimate
Another recent estimate,
made at Gen. Lauris Norstad's
NATO headquarters, is that the
SovietS have total of 1876
divisions, 40 of which are Skele-
ton. or "cadre," divisions.
More important than the
number both sides can claim
is the number that could be
used in an actual war in Ger
many.
Again the authorities differ.
One top Pentagon planner said
last week that the Soviets
could bring about so full divi-
sionS to the front; another,
equally well informed, said 110. .
Russia would have to keep a
considerable number of divi-
sionS in the satellites and
homeland, in order to maintain
stability, and they would have
difficulty supplying a large
number of divisions on a Ger
man front. So only a fraction
OF their total number of divi-
sions-whatever that may be
could be useful in a fight.
AS for the allies, figures from
Is up to 40 divisions were
mentioned.
Future Viewed
If just manpower is COM
pared, the Allies have more
forces in Germany today than
the Communists. But after a
serious buildup during the rest
OF this year, one expert opinion
is that the West could have a
little more than one million
while the SovietS could have
a million and a half.
Most of the experts would
concede the Russians some
edge in -nuclear power in
Central Europe by January,
and some would give them a
definite margin even with
Western airpower tossed in.
If war did come. and if it
were a long one. the Soviet
margin probably would increase
steadily, the experts agree. The
Russians are thought to have
more staying power, more
cadre and reserve divisions to
be filled out, more draftable,
experienced soldiers. and more .
willingness to lose them in a
fight.
But if the war becomes a
large one, and NATO territory
is seriously threatened, then
unEer this administration as
the last, nuclear weapons will
be used. And the West has a
nuclear edge for every type of
atomic war.
The American Army has
been ordered to add $4,000 men
- enough to convert three
training divisions to Strategic
Army Corps divisions and beef
up other units here and in
Europe. Congress has author
lied another 10000 men for the
Army, but the Defense Depart
ment has not permitted their
use. If they are added to the
present 875, 5,000-man-Army. the
Army will create two more
STRAC divisions. !