Evening star., 1960-11-06

with its Is electoral votes.
Democratic claims. appears to
which has 80 electoral votes.
New Jersey, with 16 electoral
votes. appears to be leaning to
Senator Kennedy-but could
be q surprise package for Mr..
Nixon.
Neither candidate could sur
vive, in all probability, If he
lost all three Of these big.
populous States, It is almost
certain that Mr.. Nixon must
carry at least Pennsylvania, If
he is to be victorious. A Ken
nedy sweep of these three
States may mean a landslide
victory for him.
Two Democratic Presidents
have won reelection without
the electoral of votes Of New
York, New Jersey and Pennsyl-
vania. They were Woodrow
Wilson In his surprise-and ex-
tremely observatory in 1916
and Harry s. Truman In an
equally surprising victory in
1913.
No Republican since the turn
Of the century has been elected
President without carrying New
York. Franklin b. Roosevelt
won four presidential elections
1892 through l944-and he
carried all three of these States
every time. except in 1882,
when he lost Pennsylvania to
Herbert Hoover, the Republican
incumbent.
New York, unless there
should be q tremendous re-
versal, is expected to 60 for
Senator Kennedy by margin
of not less than 300, 900 and not
more than l million. The un-
certainty over the margin
arises over what upstate New
York-all of the State outside
Of New York City-will actually
do election day and over what
the religious issue will do for
Senator Kennedy in New York
City and other large cities
where Catholic voters are con-
centrated.'
Religion q Factor
Not all Republican Catholics
will shift their votes to Ken
nedy-but it Is expected that
many. viii Futher, the religious
issue may cut into Democratic
Protestan voter strength. In
addition, there is no certain
way Of measuring the effect
upon voters of President Eisen-
hoyer's final campaigning for
Nixon-and his diSparagement
Of Kennedy as a potential Chief
Executive.
Some New York Republicans
are sticking to their arguments
that the Democrats cannot
overcome the fact that New
York went for Eisenhower by
more than is million votes in
1856. They insist, too, q great
deal Of the new registration
the State now has around 8.4
million registered voters, a
recdrd-is in upstate areas and
coupties outside Of the city.
The new registrants number
100000.
Republican State Chairman
Judsoa Morhouse emphasizes
the fact sthat Ill guaillion more
voters are registered in counties
outside of New York City than
in the city. He points out that
Republican strength has always
been upstate. It is a fact, how
, ever, that the Republicans have
shown weakness during this
campaign In many upstate
areas, and the Democrats in
creased strength. All of this de-
spite the fact that Gov. Rookie
feller, q Republican, has waged
an unceaSing campaign to carry
the State for Nixon. The New
York Daily News poll-which
has been generally accurate in
the past-now shows Kennedy
leading Nixon In the State SIS
per cent to 44.5 for Nixon
Pennsylvania Is Test
Pennsylvania is q different
kettle of fish, although Demo-
cratic claims Of victory there,
too, range up to a $50. 900 mar
gin Of votes for Kennedy over
his Republican opponent. Last
minute polls do not favor Ken
nedy but show instead that the
anti-Kennedy vote is material.
This is another State which
Eisenhower carried by q very
wide margin four years ago
some 100000 votes. It Is q
State where the religious issue
cuts both ways, and perhaps
much to the detriment of Ken
nedy. President Eisenhower's
blasts against Kennedy in both
Philadelphia and in Pittsburgh
are expected to get the Repub-
licans out to vote. Pennsyl-
vania Is the adopted home OF
the President.
An objective study, includ-
ing polls, by the Philadelphia
Bulletin, indicates that the
Democrats cannot carry Phila-
delphia by more than 214,000
votes and that the Democratic
lead may be held to 175,000
votes, and perhaps by no more
than 201, 900. The Philadelphia
Democratic chairman insists he
will carry the city for Kennedy
by 250.000. This is a greater
figure, by $4,000 votes, how
ever, than Mayor Richardson
Dilworth expects. Gov. David
j. Lawrence, who halls from
Pittsburgh, is claiming Allie
gheny County. which includes
the city, by 10000. The Re-
publicans dispute this.
Admitting that distressed
areas, such as the hard and
soft coal regions, will GO
ctronolu nopoonrotc fhara ra