Evening star., 1960-09-18
PresidentioIVictor Will Face Prospect
OfHeovySpending in Space Drive
BY WILLIAM HINES
Star Science Writer

The victor in November's
election faces the unrewarding
prospect of heavy outlays for
non-military space projects with
'scant hope of overtaking the
Russians during his tenure.
A spending level about twice
that of the current fiscal year
seems to be rock bottom if
America is to stay in space,
and far more generous outlays
will be needed if supremacy in
space is to be attained. The bill
in the four fiscal years of the
next Presidents first term will
be somewhere between So bill
lion and $40 billion.
These are conclusions
reached as result of a lengthy
conversation with DR.. Homer
j. Stewart. program planning
chief for the National Aero
nautics and Space Administra-
ton.
Though DR.. Stewart would
not talk dollars-and-cents con-
corning actual budgets now in
the works, 1t appears likely that
NASA's request for funds in
fiscal 1862 will be around Sl.4
billion, or about so per cent
higher than this years $e15
million.
A so per cent annual increase
in spending rate is likely for
at least two more fiscal years.
DR.. Stwart indicated. He said
such a rate is about the maxi
mum at which space programs
'can be expanded without vast
ing money. The build-up since
NASA'S first budget in fiscal /.
1859 has ben at about this rate
$19.5 Billion Possible i
A maximum expansion of
NASA space programs would +,
cost about $19.5 billion in the
next f1ve fiscal years, figuring
IN a per cent annual imitation
factor. The significance of the
f1Ve fiscal years is that the new
President will be more or less !,
stuck" with President Eisen-
MOVERS budget for fiscal 1862.
and will be in charge of prepar-
ing those for fiscal 1868 through
1866.
In order to obtain a picture
OF the problem confronting the
incoming President. D. Stewart
was asked to discuss three
cases of alternative space
policy: !
Case No. Cut off spending
at the present level-approxi-
matly 81 billion annually-and
continue at this rate indefi-
nitely.
Case No. Go to the other
extreme and expand operations
each year right up to the point |
d diminishing returns. I
Case No. 3-Find a reason
able" long-term level for the
civilian space program and ,
reach that level as quickly as !
feasible.
Case 1: mo Sense"
According to DR.. Stewart, the !
three cases actually boil down
to two practical alternatives, =
because Case No. is no an
sWer to the problem at all.
1T makes no sense" the NASA
program planner said fatty.
To level off at the present 81
billion rate, DR.. Stewart said.
would mean abandoning plans
Tor manned space flight. Prof.
ect Mercury, the first feeble eff
tort to put man into space, will
cost about $340 million to COM
plete, and for this sum I'VE
are just getting our feet wet"
A 81 billion spending level
for NASA would mean aban-
doning Mercury and probably
Saturn, the super-booster pro-
gram. THE relationship be-
tween the two projects is OBJ
Vious," DR.. Stewart commented.
II we should decide to give up
manned space light, should we
push Saturn? We'd have to
ask ourselves that question"
The NASA planner was quick
to point out that the Govern
ment has no intention of let
ting up on either Mercury (and
It's successor, Apollo or Saturn.
Both are regarded as of the
highest national Importance.
At a 81 billion level I'VE can
do unnamed space work pretty
well" DR.. Stewart said. But
he added that a billion-dollar
ceiling would foreclose further
work on atomic rocket propul-
sion. A nuclear rocket is COW
sidered a virtual must" for
moon landings and deep-spaco
explorations by humans.
Dismissing the billion-dollar
limit as impractical, DR.. Stew
art said that expansion to
higher level is completely con-
sistent with any conceivable
outcome of the election" With
that he turned to Case No. 2,
the "all-out" approach to space.
Case 2: Maximum Growth
An increase in spending of
so per cent each year over the
previous years budget is fea-
sible; in fact, just about at
the upper limit Of feasibility,
DR.. Stewart said. This was
the rate at which the Atlas
intercontinental ballistic mis-
sile program expanded once it
was put on crash" basis in
fiscal 1854.
At an annual increase of so /
per cent, compounded, builds
up quite rapidly. When an in