Evening star., 1960-12-24
BY RICHARD FRYKLUND
Star stan Writer

star otAu WIlteI
A nuclear war between the
United States and the Soviet
Union would cost from one to
80 million American lives even
II both sides rejected the policy
Of destroying cities. So say the
computers on which the Air
Force played war games"
Would such a war be so hor-
rible that the living would con-
slider the dead lucky? Many
Pentagon officers take that po-
Sition. Those who survive, they
say, would waste away from
radio activity while scramblins
for scraps Of contaminated
food and fighting for shattered
bits Of shelter.
In this view. it would matter
little what kind Of nuclear war
strategy we devise In advance
or whether some effort ct civil
defense were made. Any kind
Of nuclear' war, It Is argued,
would finish on Whatever there
is about our life that makes 1t
worth defending.
Studies Less PesSimistic
Several recent studies Of DOS
sible post-nuclear war condi-
tions in this country, however,
suggest conclusions not quite
so pessimistic. There are some
who argue that q war fought to
defend America need not de-
stroy the things defended-if
we 90 about it in the right way.
Here Is one such picture,
drawn from q new analysis of
postwar possibilities in "Ther-
monuclear War" by Herman
Kahn Of the Rand Corp.
: The bombs and warheadS fall
-on military targets only-and
perhaps S million Of us die from
fire, blast and fallout. Many
survivors must double UP on
housing. Basic food is avail
able. but 1t has no variety.
There are, Of course, almost
no TV sets, refrigerat0rs or
new automobiles on the market.
The efficiency Of local govern
ment ofncials becomes import
ant In our lives. We are all
urged to work harder. to speed
recovery.
Shortages begin to disappear
In a year, and in 10 years the
economy is back to prewar
levels. AS in Germany today,
you would have to hunt for the
bomb damage.
LOng-Lasting Effects
There are long-lasting ef-
fectS, however. People die q
little younger, and more de-
fective children are born. Sta
tistics show the difference, but
the average person does not
notice.
The difference in length Of
life is a few years. The rate
Of defective births. about 4 per
cent before the war. now ap-
proaches S per cent.
The average American COM
pares his freedom with slavery
under Red commiSSars and IL
glad We fought, although he
still grieves at the death oi
relatives and friends.
Mr.. Kahn bases his predic-
tion on the best available cal
culations Of blast, FIRE and fall.
out damage to people and tt
our productive capacity. Even
If his figures are grossly wrong.
the outcome Of his study woulc
not be greatly changed.
Keyed to Two Factors
It would be so. however, II
two assumptions prove un.
founded. II neither side spares
cities, and If we do not have
o good civil defense, then, a!
Mr.. Kahn puts it, 1.-THE sur
vivors might indeed envy th'
dead"
II cities are included on the
target lists, even the best civi
defense will not prevent devas.
tatiQn; perhaps 90 millior
Americans will die instead oi
$50 .(the estimate is for 1868
the time Of the worst missile
gap). But IL cities are not tar.
gets. then even improvised civi
defense will save many lives.
Pentagon calculations show
that in 1868, a war that avoids
cities could kill as many a
80 million persons, assuming
that nothing Is done In civi