Evening star., 1960-09-04

while the House struggle is a
question Of margins.
Even in the not-at-all-certain
event Of q G. o. p. presidential
landslide, 1t would be almost
impossible for Republicans to
win the Senate. The present
lineup is 66 Democrats and "a
Republicans. At stake in the
November elections are %
Democratic and II Republican
seats.
Sweep Would Help
A Republican sweep nation
ally or substantial Nixon-Lodge
majorities in several key States
and sections might enable that
party to take many House dis
tricts currently held by Demo-
crats.
But the task still would be
formidable. When Congress
adjourned last Thursday, the
House division was 280 Demo-
Gratis and 152 Republicans.
There were five vacancies. two
in safely Republican districts
and two in districts the Demo-
Gratis seem likely to keep. The
fifth could be a battle-ground.
It was the House seat recently
vacated by Democratic Senator
Burdick. Although he won the
Senate race by little more than
1000 for the remaining five
years Of the term of the late
Senator LANCER. Republican, he
was elected by 1900 votes to-
the House in 1858.
That at-large House district
in North Dakota is among ap-
proximately 100 marginal"
districts where Republican and
Democratic congressional cam
paign committees believe the
control of the House will be
determined in November for
the 37th Congress convening
in January. Some analysts
consider almost 200 districts to
be doubtful" on the basis of
congressional election trends
since 1948.
Representatives Kirwan Of
Ohio and Miller Of New York,
chairmen respectively of the
House Democratic and Repub-
lican congressional campaign
committees, have different to-
tails as we'll as outlooks for
marginal districts.
Balance Studied
Mr.. Kirwan lists 104 on the
basis of 1858 election victory
margins of less than IS per
cent for either party. He finds |
that Republicans now hold so
and Democrats A. including
the North Dakota at-large dis
trict. He and his associates
expect that any Democratic |
losses this year in those A
marginal areas would be more
than Offset by Republican de-
feats in the other go.
Republicans regard some rs
congressional seats as prime
goals to defeat Democratic in
cumbents. Those districts were
represented by Republicans as
recently as 1856. 1854 or 1852.
Mr.. Miller declared last week
that the Republicans. needing
at least 65 additional seats to
wrest House control from the
Democrats. have an excellent
chance" to recapture all of the
A the REPUBLICANS lost to DEM
ocrats in the 1858 election. He
sees a real fighting chance"
to pick up another 20 or more,
especially if his party wins the
White House.
Some Of Mr.. Miller's party
colleagues in the House are not
as optimistic as he is about
gaining ground in the South
or in such border States as
Missouri and Kentucky. They
doubt that many congressional
Democrats in ordinarily South
ern Democratic strongholds
would lose even if Vice Presi-
dent Nixon managed to OBJ
tain. any Southern electoral
votes. Mr.. Miller mentions
Texas. North Carolina, Flor
Ida and Virginia as possibilities
for House G. o. P. gains.
Retirement of almost go
House members thus far con-
ceivably could work to the ad-
vantage of the Republicans.
The G. o. P. hopes to elect |
House candidates to replace
retiring Democratic Represent
atives Bowles of Connecticut,
Metcalf and Anderson of Mon
tana and Coffin of Maine, who
is running for Governor.
G. o. P. Sees Chance
Other Democratic-held dis
tricts where Republicans be-
lieve they have a better than
average chance are the Mary
land 1st. End and 9Th, where
Democrats defeated Repub-
licans two years ago, and the
usually Democratic Virginia
9th held by Representative
Jennings.
Democrats say they are
equally confident of taking the
nearby Virginia district held
by Representative BroyhillI
who won by a 4,200 vote ma
jority in 1858. With any sort of
Democratic trend nationally,
they hope to unseat five Re-
publicans who won by less than
1000 votes two years ago in
Colorado, Illinois, Indiana,
Kansas, and Minnesota.
They also are making a |