Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1958-08-03
Spocemen See Odds Against
initial Moonshot Success

pentaeon scientists. now put
ting finishing touches on Amer
ica's first effort 10 shoot the
moon. seem almost as much
concerned over possible public
reaction 10 failure rs they are
over failure itself.
In fact, Roy w. johnson. DE-
rector Of the Defense Depart
ment's Advanced Research
Projects Agency. says he wishes
the public knew how slim are
the odds for success.
"Our people here have cal
culated the CHANGES for success
the first time out as only about
one In TO-" Mr.. johnson said In
an exclusive interview,
I'VE have 1--WE shots sched-
.uled. and we are reasonably
confident wen make It with one
or more. But as 10 any par
ticular shot-we Just can't be
sure"
August Moon Shot Likely
Mr.. johnson. whose ARPA Is
currently in charge Of all space
manship for the United States,
has not yet made public a def
mite date for the first attempt
to probe" the vicinity Of the
moon. But 1t Is a matter Of
wide speculation that the first
'Moonshot" will come about
the middle Of this month.
Definite dates aside, Mr..
johnson is perfectly willing to
talk about the problems Of
shooting the moon. And these
problems are numerous.
In the first place, there are
only a few days every month
when a rocket within the pres
ent state Of the art" can be
launched 10 hit or approach
the moon.
These are days when the
planes Of the earth's and
moons orbits around the sun
are in line.
They set into favorable posi- .
tons about once every % days.
which is the period Of the
moons rotation around the
earth.
Favorable Periods
The first of these periods will
be August l7-l8-l9. as far as
Cape Canaveral, Fla, is con-
cerned.
If we fail to launch during
that period, we will have to
wait until September 14-l5-l6.
After that the next chance will
be october 12-l3-14.
Every place on earth has its
three-day span," Mr.. johnson
explained. THE days vary from !
place to place. Russia's aren't
the same as ours" !
The hardware for Moonshot 4
No. / is pretty well set now, al
though finishing touches are Y
still being put on the final stage Z
the part that Mr.. johnson I
and his ARPA aides hope will c
go into orbit around the moon.
The missile will be an i'm I
posing makeshift dine i
about 100 feet high on its
launching stand. I
ThOr-Able First Stage Z
Known as ''Thor-Able," the {
the vehicle will have an Air '
Force intermediate Range Thor
(62 feet long, 8 feet in dia- r
meter as the big first stage :
which win boost it moonward. =
The second stage will be that q
OF a Vanguard rocket, whose L
second stages have performed G
relatively better than the UNI
successful Vanguards the m
selves.
The third stage will be some- r
thing new entirely-a little big r
ger, a little heavier than the 7
Army's Explorer satellites, but I
quite similar in appearance.
The final stage of the first e
moon rocket will weigh about '
80 pounds-about one-third
more than Explorer w. which v
went into orbit a week ago. It's l
chief features will be a scan t
ming ENTHUSIASTICALLY a crude
televiSion camera-and instru- t
ments to measure magnetism. s
Crude TelevisiOn Pictures
DR.. johnson said he recently S
saw the scanning device in ac-
ton at the Naval Test Center, r
Inyokern, Calf. where it was S
developed. f
"It'S not what you'd call a p
good TV picture, Mr.. johnson v
said. "It's very crude, but you n
can make things out. I was
able to make out a man in one 1.
picture and a house in another 2
without being told what l was a
looking at" I"
The moon camera is hardly d
likely to find either when it
scuds across the lunar sky to a
snap pictures of the black" i,
side of the moon. This is the r
part Of the moon which hui h
mans have never seen because c,
the moon always keeps the same
hemisphere toward earth. q,
Does anybody think the
camera will find anything diff 81
ferent from what we see on q
our side Of the moon?" DR., n
johnson was asked. When his n
negative reply elected another
question, the ARPA director
said: =
why bother to take pictures Z
4 a