Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1957-03-24
The SAMPLES THE THING
PoIIsters Capitalize on the Laws of Chance

magazine had for years successfully
predicted the outcome OF presi-
Dental elections. 1t used a sample
straw vote of post card ballots from
people listed in telephone direc-
tories.
In the Landon- Roosevelt contest
the magazine secured at a cost of
half million dollars some 2.3 mil
lion replies out of 10 million mail
outs, Landon appeared the winner.
Came November and Landon was
beaten by more than 10 million
popular votes The got only eight
electoral votes. The magazines
prediction was wrong by 20 per
cent. 1t folded shortly thereafter.
Second gueSsers said the poll was
heavily biased toward the more
literate voters in higher income
brackets. One pollster said after
ward you could have achieved bet
ter results with truly representa-
tive sample of 100 voters.
Norerul Freporotton
Governmental and industrial
pollsters spend months working
out their samples before they begin
interviews. Once the sample groups
are selected, interviewerS are told
to get answers from them and
from no one else. Otherwise the
poll might be thrown off. No one
could guess how much.
An interesting application of this
is furnished by the largest. highest
priced and most respected OF the
television pollsters-the A. c. Mel
sen Co. Of Chicago.
Nielsen TV surveys are based on
a sample of some 900 households.
Each home is permanent member
OF the Nielsen panel. carefully Sc
lected to obtain the all-important
proportional representation.
Television sets within each home
have attached to them device
called an audimeter. 1t automatic
cally and continually records
whether the set is turned on and
the channel to which 1t is tuned.
Every two weeks film cartridge is
removed from the audimeter. re-
turned to the company and re-
placed with a fresh one 1.-TWO quar-
tets pop out during the EXCHANGE.
The result is an accurate record
tsubject to no human error of
viewing during the period. Nelson's
critics point out that the record
does not tell If the set was playing
to an empty room or Just who was
watching. Nielsen says the for
mer is an insignificant error and
that they can estimated the latter.
The American Research Bureau
uses supervised diary" method.
in which up to 1900 families keep
a week-long record of the shows
they watch and who watches them.
Names are obtained from telephone
books and a different group is used
every month.
Trendex Is Fostest
Trendex, the fastest of the serv-
ices, makes telephone calls while
the shows are on 1000 DEALINGS
for half-hour show in IS major
cities. It covers only the areas
where the three big networks cNBC,
CHS and ABC) can be received. It's
chief advantage: Speed Ratings are
often worked up overnight.
The Pulse employs an "aided re-.
CALI method of personal interviews
where respondents look at program
rosters and tell what they watched.
Videodex uses the diary panel
method.
The Nelson company is the only
one that claims to have a prob
ability sample" free from bases
introduced by selectivity inherent in
telephone lstings or somewhat
cratic sampling
The others point out with some
justification. that their services
must be considered In relation TO
the needs Of the industry.
All TV pollsters say that the Top
TO- ratings which receive so much
publicity and arouse so much con-
troversy are just window dressing
for them; that their real success is
determined by the acceptance they
have won with broadcasters and
sponsors who tpay the bills.