Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1957-05-05
THE DEBATE OF THE SCIENTISTS
Actual Risk Is SmuII' The Ca
BY JOHN M FowLER and NoRMAN GOLDBERG

BY JOHN M FOWLER and NORMAN GOLDBERG
Assistant Professors University st Louis
and the University of Pennsylvania
The striking fact which emergeS from an exami-
nation OF scientific attitudes toward the hazards of
fallout radiation is the widely divergent nterpreta-
lions of the present meager experimental data
This divergence of viewpoint is perhaps best
illustrated by the recent conflicting statements of
DR.. Albert Schweitzer and DR.. Libby
The fact is, the divergence reflects an uncer-
tainty on the part of the scientists. 1t is our
opinion that evaluation of the hazard and deci-
sions based on this evauation must recognize that
it is not possible to measure precisely the dangers
on the basis of present knowledge.
There are two general questions which must be
asked, and the exactness with which these can be
answered should govern the certainty with which
statements about the hazard are made % How
much is safe?" and 90 How much will we get?"
The first question is one to which radiologists
have directed great deal of attention They have
attempted to set "beSt guess" as to a maximum
permissible whole body" dose.
If one looks at the history of this maximum
permissible whole body" dose, finds that it has
been reduced, in successive re-evauations, to one
twelfth of the value first set in 1881 New informa-
ton has almost always shown important low
intensity effects which had been overlooked before.
Fallout radiation gives rise to both genetic
effects, which harm our offspring and PATHOLOGICAL
effects, which harm the person receiving the radia-
ton. The most hazardous fallout component, in
regard to pathological effects is strontum-9O a
bone-seeking substance of long-lasting activity
Uncertoiny Is the Problem
The maximum permissible concentration" for
strontium-90 has the same sources of uncertainty
that are found in other safe" standards. It is
based upon very meager experimental information,
derived as it was largely from experience in less
than hundred cases Of "radium poisoning" all of
whom were adults The extrapolation from radium
10 strontium-eO is also a source of uncertainty.
Moreover children are likely to be sensitive to
radiation than adults.
There is strong possibility, based again on a
few difficult experiments, that any amount of
strontum-9O can cause serious damage-eukemia
or bone tumors. Many scientists strongly suspect
that any radiation which takes us appreciaby above
the existing natural level of radiation which is
due to coSic rays natural radioactivty in the soil
etc. Is dangerous. We do not know what amount
OF damage is being done by these natural radia-
lions" and SO cannot safely evaluate the effect Of
adding to them.
Attempts to answer the second question. How
much radiation will We get?" are also fraught with
uncertainties.
Estimates Are Possible
From balloon samplng of the shakespeare, from
soil samples, from sampling food and actual human
DoneS lOr STOnCluH-5U content, we can make rather
good estimates Of the amount of strontium- 80 the
average child, growing up in this strontium-9O
containing environment. will build into his bones
This figure is expected to be about or per cent
Of the MPC established for the general population
This amounts to about per cent increase over
the world natural average level.
An increase of this amount may not cause
detachable effects, but here again we are faced with
uncertainties when we consider fluctuations from
the average We must ask how many people will be,
for some biological dietary envronmental reason,
"unaverage" and perhaps store 10 or 80 times the
average amount in their system
This then Is the problem which faces U.S. We
are applying safe" level. which varies from indi-
vidual to individual. and which in itself contains
sources Of uncertainty, to a situation in which the
accretion of radioactive material widely variable
II the fallout were only possible menace to
the testing nations. 1t would be proper for them to
make judgment about the relative risks of falout
versus cessation Of bomb testing and act accordingly
Since in fact the testing powers are subjectng the
entire world to fallout radiation, the testing powers
face heavy responsibility to only on the cautious
side