Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1957-04-07
EGYPT
Continued From First Pag,

EGYPT
Continued From First Pag,
tian-held American . Treasury
notes are blocked.)
What II these things were
done?
Presumably, the Communist
bloc would continue to provide
the most important imports: Oil,
wheat, arms. Egyptians would
be denied many luxuries which
now are imported.
/ The big question. however. is
whether Egyptian leaders would
react basically like other per-
sons suddenly kicked in the
pants and do their best to kick
! back.
Two Schools of Thought
Estimates OF Egyptian reac-
ton TO a sudden economic blow
(if this could be delivered) di-
vide Mideast observers. One
school says any Arab is best
handled roughly-kindness is
misinterpreted and leads to more
demands. This schools says any
one who doesn't understand this
doesn't understand the Arab.
The other schools says thai
the independent Arab will simply
do the opposite of what the
kicker wants. Americans in the
IMideast don't believe that kick
ling would be either the nice
thing to do or particularly effec-
tive. The Egyption set great
store by their new independence
and dignity than they do By
their economic well being.
1t is interesting to note the
Egyption reaction to some re-
cent kicks. In July, 1865, Amer
lea had to get rid of domestic
cotton SURPRISES. so the cotton
was. from the Egyptian point Of
view, dumped" on the worlc
market-roughly what is sug-
gested that Americans deliber-
ately do now.
/ Internal development schemes
outlines of which made Nassei
look like good influence fol
Egypt. were based ON cottor
earnings and these schemes were
scrapped. At roughly the same
time. Israel made large-scale
military raids on Egypt-well-
delivered kicks. Also at roughly
the same time. Russia activatec
its new Mideast policy and tolc
Egypt just to ask for anything
she might need.
Policy Unchanged
Egypt trumpeted defiance al
America and Israel; started CON-
mercial dealings with Russia
Despite subsequent economic anc
military kicks by Israel and tho
West and cajolery by the United
States. matters have only be-
come worse. Egyptian policy has
not changed.
/ What is the economic future
for Egypt under existing condi-
tions? Most see slow stagnatior
and the end Of any hope that
she can keep pace economically
with the growing population.
Then imitation. The Egyptian
government has been printing
more money to pay the cost Of
war-caused dislocations. while
goods have become more scarce
Whenever Egyptians stoI
boarding and start spending
prices will skyrocket. But in the
simple Egyptian economy, this
need not happen for many
months or even years.
Going DOwnhilI
Egypt's position as proprietor
of the short trade route from
East to West is being lost
Egyptian economists say pri-
vately. 1t is sound economics
for the West to find alternative
routes. Euratom will lessen the
European need for oil. Fuel ano
economic indignation programs
will free Europe partially OF re.
stricting trade ties with the
East.
The Egyptian government
says 1t will cope with these flu
ture problems by carefully plan
ming and tightly controllinl
Egyptian economy. This trenc
is already in full, but rather
inefficient, swing.
But Egyptian leaders know
Egypt's economic future is al
downhill, unless outside aid 1,
received. Even Col. Nasser say'
privately Russia will never sup
ply enough. But he also say
II the American price for hell
Is change In Egypt's foreign
policy. then he won't pay. i
Egypt goes down the drair
economically. 1t will. says Col
INasser, be In as sovereign. diRni.