The Sidney herald., 1957-07-11

array OF circuSdoms foremost
Shrine Circus. the greatest yet.
daily at the Fair Ground. Sidn
spite for the targets in the next
war.
AS far as nuclear tests are con-
cerned, however, the development
is of significant interest, for il
means that the United States can
eventually test its hydrogen
bombs without creating much of
a danger from fall-out. We hope
that, eventually also, all atomic
and hydrogen bombs will be out.
lawed, as was poison gas in
World War II, and that neither
type of these bombs is used in
any future military emergency.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS
"Oh, for ar electronic analyzer
of cross currents, a precipitation
of knowledge out of complexityll"
This ~plaintive wish is voiced by
j. A. Livington, the widely syn
Dictated writer on business and
financial affairs. 1t comes from
the fact that there are opposed
and contrary trends in the
American economy today that
make forecasting even in the near
future a delicate and risky under
taking.
For instance, the u. S. Treasury
has found it necessary to pay an
interest rate approaching 4 per
cent - and some treasury bonds
are now quoted at IS cents on
the dollar. There has been a drop
factory workers pay, because
Of a decline in hours worked
weekly, and the Federal Reserve
Index of production slipped 4
between December and
May. Do such developments, Mr..
asks, indicate that
this is the beginning of the end
# the long, long boom?"
Then he cites other facts,
pointing in a very different di-
ection. Some companies report
major sales gains this year, and
,ersonal incomes have been ris-
.g. So another question arises:
Is this a portent of a consumer
pending splurge later in the
'ear?"
His WI view is optimistic -
hat "the country is on the
hreshold of another upsurge in
onsumer spending; that the two
ear drop in housing and automo-
lie sales will come to an end
lis year and forerun a rise in
958; that stocks are buoyed by
usiness prospects"
Other authorities also find ]
lenty of 'cross currents" and {
ifferences to debate about. For
stance, in a recent talk before
meeting of the National Citi-
ms Committee to Curb Infla- q
On, Senator Byrd of Virginia
id that "inflation is threatening v
IT national life" The Senator, {
no is one of the strongest ad-
coates of economy in Congress C
ames inflationary forces prin- +
oally on government fiscal poll f
rs. Yet on the same program,
:. Edwin G.. Nourse. who was a
e top government economist in E
e Truman Administration, took n
other view. He said that infla-
n is primarily to be blamed on ].
DOR, business and the farmers, "
her than government. q
These ~confusions to one side,
lat can we expect in the COM a,
!. business picutre. Fortune, O,
Iich has had a good record of r
ecasting in the past, has pre- M
tied its idea of the outlook for q,
next 18 months. According to
we will have another best ar
IT ever" in 1857 and there will p,
a further upturn in 1858. Spe-
.cally, Fortune thinks personal II
ONES will increase by SIS bill ei,
/ a year, consumer spending da
/ be up, home building will r.
w gradual recovery, and that Ia,
entories, now shrinking, will
,and again next year. 1t also 60
icipates that prices will con- NJ
ne to rise, but at a slower -.
e than in 1856, and that the he
iget will show a surplus. e..
( should be added that some e.
er respected forecasters are ~
SO certain. AS the old carni- az
shell-and-pea game spielers ~.
d to say, "You pays your al
ney and you takes your
That is true in principle NJ
economic forecasts. M
industrial News Review VI