Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1956-10-21
By EARL H. yOss-

Election-year politics aside. what
would happen if Britain. the Soviet
Union and the United States actu-
ally did agree to stop testing large
H-bombs. as suggested by Adlai
Stevenson?
Assuming 'large" means more
than a megaton (the equivalent
force of one million tons of TNT)
or a half megaton yield, Washing
ton officials generally expect the
effects would be much less spec
tacular than the politicos predict.
These likely outcomes in military.
health and political fields emerged
last week from a quizzing of Amer
lean officials:
The Soviet American arms
Ii race probably would go on
about as before, virtually unim-
peded. All sides in the political
dispute about continuing large
bomb tests agree that research and
development should go on. On this
basis, scientists believe they could
scale down their H-bomb test mod
els to a megaton or below, then
project the results to predict how
larger models would perform. Then
larger models could be built and
Stockpiled as needed, without one
being fired.
This procedure would leave Amer
lean military commanders jittery.
to say the least. But one gets the
impression they could be persuaded
to live with the nightmare that one
of these "incompletely tested" mon
ster bombs might misf1re.
The Soviet Union presumably
would use the same method.
Thus scientists in the rival coun-
tries might be able to use their
already accumulated knowledge Of
large H-bomb explosions, new re-
search and small" test firings to
continue the arms race.
They Have the Experience
Both American and Soviet scien-
lists already have considerable ex-
perience on how large H-bombs
perform. The United States stock
pile is said to be complete enough
to provide for all ofenSiUe purposes
conceivable.
But American nuclear weapons
development is now concentrating
on air defense and the So-called
"clean" bombs producing less fall
out. In this area there may still be
some use for large-bomb testing,
1t is believed. But in this area, too.
many scientists believe they could
extrapolate results of smaller test
explosions effectively.
Depending on the political point
of view, the existence of this posi-
bility of extrapolating from small
H-bomb tests-which no one in this
country proposes banning-can be
taken to support either Adlai Ste
venson or President Eisenhower.
A small step is better than none,
the Democrats generally contend.
The Republicans say this small step
OOoAeA w WOAoC OAAOAA AAOAACs C1llCC q
public whoop-tee-do about suspend
ing tests of large H-bombs would
tend to lull the world to sleep even
though the hazards of the continu-
ing arms race had not diminished.
= Fallout hazards might change
[s very little, although this can
not be certain. Testing of smaller
nuclear weapons, which probably
will be continued by all atomic
powers, may throw up just as much
debris as if there we're no ban on
large tests.
Three Foctors on Hozords
For three reasons, the hazards
to be caused by United States test
ing-already said to be slight by
Atomic Energy Commissioner Will
lard F. Libby-may now be over
rated. These reasons leave aside
the conflicting views of scientists
on the present rates Of testing.
First, the United States appar-