The Sidney herald., 1956-10-11

NObCos ollFCA oOW was SGCOttL
with 23,283 and Cascade third
with 23,141. Silver Bow is al
most entirely an industrial coun-
ty, whereas Cascade and Vel
lowstone r important agricul-
turally as well as industrially
Each of these counties is expert
encing substantial industrial
growth. This means a larger
labor union vote whose formal
leadership, in general, plays the
Democratic party game.
What may be a factor in this
election is the vigorous effort
labor leaders have made to get
all union members and their
families registered to vote. If
on November 6 the Montana Ia
Dor vote comes close to its po-
tential it could be decisive.
In number of votes cast the
next group to be reckoned with
comprises Deer Lodge, Flat
head, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark
and Missoula counties, which in
1852 marked 58,932 ballots for
governor, giving Aronson a
plus of 1872.
Just below this group are
Custer, Fergus, Hill and Park.
Their combined vote for COVER
nor four years ago was 24,511,
with a 2,739 Republican advan-
tage.
The Triangle group, not in
Guiding Cascade and Hill coun-
ties, cast 1904 votes. The
Democratic margin was 1926.
These counties are Glacier, Lib
erty, Pondera, Chouteau, Teton
and Toole.
Because of their in-between
location, l have classified Blaine
and Phillips counties separately.
Their combined 1852 vote for
governor was 1896, with a DEM
ocratic edge of 166.
Fifteen counties which I con-
slider strictly eastern Montana,
and outside the Billings Yellow
stone orbit, cover at least one
fourth of the states area, but
their consolidated vote for gov
ernor in 1852 was only II more
than half the number cast in the
"big three. Counties in this
group are Carter, Custer, Dam
iels, Dawson, Fallon, Garfield,
McCone, Powder River, Prairie,
Richland, Roosevelt, Rosebud,
Sheridan, Valley and Wibaux.
They averaged out TAO in Aron-
sons favor.
l am not here considering
Montana's 1852 presidential cleo
ton, for it was not typical of
the usual voting pattern in this
state. The governorship contest
appeared to be more consistent
with the pattern. Or we may
take u. S. senator, where in
1852 Democrat Mike Mansfield
won by about the same majority
as Republican Aronson. These
very close races were further
evidence that not infrequently
voter shifts decide our
elections. Certainly the Murray
D'Ewart contest in 1854 was a
case in point.
Outside of Yellowstone, Silver
Bow and Cascade counties,
Aronson got 99,359 votes and
Bonner received 91,795, or a
1854 Aronson margin. Deducting
Bonner's 2,510 surplus in the
"big three" counties gave
Aronson a 5,054 victory. If Bon
ner had come out of these three
counties with even half of the
lead he got there when
ne was elected governor in
l948, he would have won in
1852.
Statistical analysis of Mon
last two statewide cleo
ions suggests delicate balances
where in some instances party
strength at the polls is nearly
divided. In such situa-
ions it takes but little shifting
# weight to tip the scales. AT
his stage of the present cam
,aign the balance seems to be
.ritically delicate, but within
he next two weeks there should
a fairly accurate indi-
alton whether the scale is tip
ng in favor of Governor Aron-
on or his Democratic opponent,
Atty. Gen. Arnold Olsen.
AS to Dwight Eisenhower, /
eel the President still has the
dpe.