Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1956-10-07

eT-bGnEer and student OF World
affairs, asserts that the Free
World is "SleepDalking into pre-
Dentdbte disaster" In a new
pamphlet, Danger and Oppor-
tunity," just published By Cur
rent Affairs Press. Here are er-
cerpts from his provocative
analysts of the perils facing the
United States and the other
Western poUerS in today'S
"lUorId in revolution"
BY JAMES p. WARBURG
American supremacy in economic
development and. chronological adj
vance is taken as much for granted
in Washington as eventual Commu-
mist world domination is taken for
granted in Moscow.
This complacent assumption of
interchangeable American economic
supremacy constitutes one of our
great dangers.
believe that the American eco
nomic supremacy is by no means as
strong or as healthy as our leaders
appear to think. Our prosperity is
not peace prosperity" 1t is a
precarious preparedness prosperity
which will end abruptly if and when
the world comes to its senses and
military expenditures are sharply
curtailed. unless government en-
pendttureS for other than military
purposes promptly take up the
slack. Because we are not prepar-
ing now for any such program of
peacetime expenditure, we are
building up dangerous vested in
terest in not making peace.
Further, our present high level of
production and consumption is
based upon an unhealthy mortgag-
ing of the future. In the absence
of preventive action taken very
soon. this condition may before long
result in downturn which is likely
to go much further than our polit-
ical and economic leaders seem to
anticipate. Such a setback may
well be sharp enough to cause seri-
Gus unemployment. to re-stimulate
racial discrimination, to unbalance
the precariously balanced econ
omles of some of our allies and,
worst of all, to create additional
pressures against ending the arms
race.
The danger we face from these
domestic sources is magnified by
an external menace: Russia is be-
ginning to beat us at our own
best game.
At the present rate of respective
growth. it is estimated by careful
analysts that Soviet production
will. in about five years, reach the
American level of 1856 and that,
in 10 or is years more, Russia
will have surpassed the United
States as the worlds top industrial
producer.
The political consequences Of
Soviet economic supremacy are
Self-evident. Given a continuation
of openly hostile, cut-throat compe-
tition. they amount to Communist
victory without war. If we simply
project existing trends into the
future. Russia will, at some time
during the next generation, control
enough of the raw material sources
and markets to make a shambleS
of Western prosperity.
This truly terrifying develop
ment is by no means inevitable. If
We wake up in time, we have the
power to prevent it. Unfortunately,
prevention requires a degree Of
foresight and courage on the part
of American leadership which S
not as yet in evidence. 1t also re-
quires a considerable willingness to
sacrifice on the part of the Amer
lean people-a willingness which
would, am convinced, exist if the
people were told the truth about
the existing dangers and if they
were given bold, constructive lead
erShip.
Irrespective of whether the arms
race continues, we must reduce the
dependency of our economy on
military expenditures. We must
also stimulate its growth in order
to prevent Russian hegemony. Both
can be accomplished by a carefully
planned program of public and pri-
vate expenditure in developing our
own "underdeveloped areas" = by
building much needed schools, by
clearing overpopulated slums and
building new housing, by improving