Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1956-08-03

Inc preu1cJlOnS oil CROWN
increase in industrialization, a
growing tourist business and
other factors. But an increase
in Government employment of
only 10 per cent in the next Is
years was foreseen.
The forecasts were made by
the Council for Economic and
Industry Research, Inc. a pri-
vate Washington research or
ganization. It's study of the
areas economic base was made
for the National Capital Plan
ming Commission and the Ma
tional Capital Regional Plan
ming Council. The data was re-
quired for the areas Mass
Transportation Survey, now in
progress.
Transport Held Vital
The research body'S report
pointed out that the growth OF
any area can be achieved most
favorably only when facilities
are available to transport people
and goods to meet adequately
all the needs of the community.
The report said about As per
cent of the job opportunities of
the region are now connected
with what it calls the "indepen-
dent sectors" of the economy
which are the basis of its growth.
Three-quarters of these jobs
are in Government, the largest of
the sectors. The other sectors
are listed as tourism, the special
professional services and organi-
cations which are here because
this is the seat Of Government.
university activities, interna-
tional activities, research, and
the influx to Washington because
Of its unique advantages by
those who retire.
The report puts employment
in these sectors at 413,300 in
1855. The figure for 1865 is esti-
mated at 100000, and for 1880 at
$4,000.
Endless Chain
Added to these must be the
large numbers Of persons who
supply the goods and services for
those employed in the indepen-
dent sectors. Each echelon of
suppliers in turn would create a
need for additional suppliers, and
the thing would go on in an
endless chain.
The research workers used an
electronic computer to calculate
the total potential employment
in local industry and services
generated by each member Of the
labor force. So far as is known.
this was the first use of the COM
puter in making a systematic
projection of the probable growth
Of a large metropolitan area.
About 100000 individual CAL
culations were made by the COM
puter in carrying through only
one phase Of the analysis.
The study also made use Of
second approach. This was an
analysis of population to arrive
at estimates of natural growth
coupled with estimates of the net
gain in population from persons
moving into the area in larger
numbers than those moving out.
Population Findings
A synthesis was then made of
the two analyses. The report
listed these findings in the popu-
lation analysis:
The population of the area in
creased rs per cent from $780,
600 in mid-1950 to 100000 in
mid-1955. This was due to high
birth rates and to a net inflow
Of 227,500 during this period.
If the 1950-53 birth rates con-
tinue. the population could reach
% million by 1865 and 2.S mil
lion by 1880 entirely through
natural increase.
The non white population,
which tends to be concentrated
in the District, is growing some
what faster than the white popu-
lation. This is because of the
higher birth rate and because
Of the influx Of colored resi-
dents. BY 1880. by natural in
crease alone. the percentage of
non-white in the District will
rise from the present AZ to 40.
If the trend Of the white popu-
lation from the District to Mary
land and Virginia continues, the
non-white percentage will be
even higher.
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
Most Of the expansion of
Job opportunities in the region
in the past rs years has been
due to the powerful impetus
given to Government employ
ment by an economic depression
and two wars. In the absence
OF new powerful impacts, the
prospects are that expansion Of
Government employment Civil
ian and military frnrn tic rnres-