Evening star., 1955-02-08
Red Chinu's Weaknesses

Chinese communists could nOlQ OUT ou
days" in full-scale hoStilities with the United
States, Representative Joe Martin, House
Republican leader, has given voice to what
has all the earmarkS Of much-too- -wishful
exaggeration. Nevertheless, considering Red
China'S numerous weaknesses, the Peiping
regime would seem to have every reason to
avoid getting involved, through it's bellig-
erent Formosa policy, in a major war with
our incomparably more powerful country.
OF course, since their thinking is not
like ours, and since they may be motivated
more by revolutionary ardor and trigger
happy cockiness than by what we would re-
gard as realism or simple common sense,
the Chinese Communists may. in fact be
determined to try seizing FormoSa even at
the risk of precipitating great armed con-
f1ict with us. However, assuming that they
measure their own capabilities as we do,
and assuming that the Kremlin has no
desire to have them start big war at this
time, they should feel decidedly strong
compulSion to restrain themselves before
they go too far and set off an explosion that
could be their undoing.
In any event, even though both of the
above assumptions may prove to be false,
it is fact that Red China is far from being
major power equipped within itself to wage
major modern war. True, it is country
with tremendous population. True, too,
it has huge land armies. But such assets
are not necessarily so significant as they
may seem at first glance. After all, wholly
apart from its inconsequential navy, what
would Peiping's land strength amount to
without Soviet supplies? And how could
the Chinese Communist air force, large as
it may be, be a thing of much Importance
If it did not receive its planes from Russia?
Actually, in terms of what it can pro-
duce for itself, China is relatively weak
and very backward land-cursed with terri
bic poverty, equipped with only primitive
road and railway system, deficient in raw
materials, and overwhelmingly agricultural
in character. In short, with its scratch-as-
scratch-can peasant economy, this vast and
Sprawling country has precious little in
duStrial capacity, and not more than an
extremely minute fraction of it's population
has had experience in factory work. In
deed in the best of circumstances, Peiping
itself does not expect to- attain even the low
1882 level of Soviet industry until around
1860 at the earliest.
Meanwhile, the Peiping Communists
whose strength apart from Russia's is the
strength of paper tiger"-must also
reckon with facts like these: That immense
numbers of the Chinese people have no real
sense of nationhood that they have never
been effectively unified; that they are not
accustomed to owing allegiance to central
authority; that they speak differing and
sometimes mutually incomprehensible dia-
lects; and that they are historically nom
totalitarian in their way of living.
Quite obviously-politically, economi-
cally and otherwise-China is thus country
that will require long years of effort and
peace if it is ever to achieve genuinely for
midable power And for that reason, if
they are sane, and especially if the Kremlin
is leery of their bellicosity, Mao Tse-tung
and company must feel more than little
bit hesitant about unleashing war by strik-
ing out against Formosa in the teeth of de-
fenSive American armed might.