Evening star., 1955-09-04
BY ALTON L. BLAKESLEE
Associated Press Science Reporter

HIkIlH SGC1u W A1ldlCdtE tAAC AodAA
polio vaccine is doing a lot OF
good, even with only one shot.
Some signs might optimis-
tically, if incautiously, be read
to indicate q so to rs per cent
cut in polio risk.
Numerous signs are found in a
survey by the Associated Press
of 10 States and two foreign
countries where the Salk vaccine
is used.
Alone. each is a mere straw in
the wind. Even taken all to-
gether. they don't prove what the
vaccine may be doing.
The interesting and perhaps
really significant thing is that
every single straw points toward
some protective effect. Not one
is blowing in the direction of
mo effect"
: ii Main Straws
These are among IL main
Straws:
Twenty-three States list q to-
tai of 261 cases of polio among
about 3 million children given
one or more shots. BY contrast,
they list more than four times
rs many cases-1 ,095-among an
almost equal number of nom
vaccinated children aged 5 to o.
But don't use that to high
vault to the conclusion the vac
cine cut polio by rs per cent.
There are reasons, explained
later, why you can't. Here let 1t
be pointed out these crude f1g-
ures cover reported" cases in
numerous States of nonpara-
lytic as well as paralytic polio.
(The other rs States were
omitted in this addition simply
because their reports did not
supply anywhere-near compar-
able age groups.l
Taking six States giving break
downs specifically of PARA
LYTIC polio (perhapS not all
confirmed, an addition shows
an attack rate rs per cent less
among vaccinated than among
nonvaccinated--mostly children
In the same school age group
who were eligible but refused
shots.
"a Paralytic Cases
This shows "a paralytic cases
among 1,122,857 inoculated, an
attack rate of 2.14 per 100000
1t shows So cases among 21.317
not given shots, an attack rate
of 8 per 100000. If anything,
this straw might be more sig
Ilificant, but is still not authori-
tative statistics.
In Canada, only two children
among 100000 vaccinated have
come down with polio. Health
Minister Paul Martin reports.
But there have been ATS cases
thalf paralytic, among all the
14.2 million other Canadians Of
ALL ages. The near-million
Canadian children who had re-
ceived two shots were aged 5 to
Q. Canada's polio total ts run
ming about . quarter OF the five
year average. No conclusions
about the Salk vaccine are being
drawn yet, MFR. Martin said.
NEW YORK sTATE-Prelim-
mary figures indicate . better
than 30 per cent lower rate OF
PARALYTTC polio among vacci-
mated youngsters. Although the
totals Of paralytic cases are quite
small, this is called statistically
significant at the moment.
MASSACHUSETTS. -- In this
hot epidemic State, 46 reported
eases Of polio among 10000
children given one or more shots,
compared with 474 among 260.-
900 festimated} children aged 5
to . not vaccinated. A straw
here would indicate an attack
rate six times lower t63 per
cent? among the vaccinated
youngsters.
Massachusetts health officials
rightly warn against making
conclusions on these un-analyzed
figures. Of interest is the fact
that much polio there is ap-
parently due to Type polio
virus, against which the vac
cine used in the 1854 field trials
showed the least effect. Type
I virus is usually the most preVa-
lent type nationally. Since last
year, the vaccine has been i'm
proved, by removing a preserva-
tive that apparently cut its po-
tency against Type I. Massa-
chusetts may help show how
good it is now against this type.
COLORADO.-Based on very
small numbers, not statistically
significant, the polio rate seems
80 per cent lower among vac
cinated children. DR.. Roy l..
Cleere, health department di-
rector, thinks it may be bringing
excellent" results. He said
that based on a five-year aver
age, Colorado might have ex-
pected 70 cases by now among
children to 8, instead Of the
II that have occurred.
In all 48 States polled, health
officials in II volunteered COM
ment that was favorable, from
lukeWarm to enthusiastic, about
the vaccine. Most urged wait
and-see attitude. But not one
suggested 1t was not having ef-
feet.
Attack Rate Lower
In each Of the % States which
supplied comparisons Of children
in roughly the same age groups,
the attack rate each time was
lower among the vaccinated than
those not. The ratios varied
widely, of course, from / to ia,
to / to 4, or / to II, or fantasti-
cally higher where small figures
were concerned.
Denmark, where 430,0 900 chill
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