Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1955-01-07
What Do We Do Now? Have 2 Car FomiIies?

:, cramped the auto industry. In
the prosperity period Of 1925-1929
motor makers produced 21.7 mil
lion cars. In the depression Pc
Rod Of l930-1934 they turned out
only Ill nillion--hardly more
than half as many.
And then there was World
War II. Including trucks IN the
| total, the industry produced only
81 million units between Pearl
Harbor and Hiroshima.
Still Depressions, Wars.
The past, of course, can be
prologue to the future. While
the auto industry is now estah-
lished--and the public reaction
Ito cars is not what 1t was in
1900-there are still depressions
and wars to think about. Either
inevitably would cut production
Korea trimmed Is million
units Of the industry's total out.
put between 1850 and 1851. And
even the slight business slump
felt earlier this year had It's part
in the cutback Of 1854 ptoduc-
ton by about 300. 900 units from
the 1858 level.
So whether or not any GIN
worker lives long enough to witt
ness the production Of that COM
pany's car No. 100 million win
depend on a great many things
few. if any, of which GIN Presi-
dent Curtice controls.
But assuming that there is no
depression, and that there Is no
war, between now and 1873,
what about the future Of the In
dustry?
Met Initial Demand.
For the first SO years of auto
motive history, cars were being
produced at a rate largely re-
sponsive to initial demand: that
is, most were being put into the
hands of drivers for the first
time. Also. the population Of the
country was growing rapidly. so
that initial demand plus expan-
sion Of the economy made it
easy for the industry to keep
growing.
Now. however, there are some
thing like 20 million passenger
cars in the hands Of the public,
and only about SO million
family units In the country. So,
on the average, just about every
family has car---and some
thing like IS per cent of these
cars are less than six years old.
Secondly. the population,
while still increasing, is not
growing as rapidly as it did In
the past. Demographers now
look for the United States popu-
lation to hit a peak Of about 200
million somewhere about 1875
and stay there.
So the outlook for the future.
as far as the auto industry Is
concerned, is different from the
outlook 50---or even 20-years
ago. Detroit must now gear its
operations to q stable. rather
than an expanding, economy.
Two-Car Families.
One Of Detroit's ideas along
this line Is to turn the United
States into a Nation Of two-car
families. The United Auto
Workers and the Ford Motor
Co., which do not ordinarily see
eye-to-eye on economic matters,
both think the two-car formula
is the one that will save the
industry.
The trend is growing, certain
~. Nine per cent Of all the
families In the United States
now own more than one car. To
put it another way. IL per cent
OF all car-owning families own
two automobiles or more.
But it is highly questionable
that the day will come when all
Or even a rnajority--of Ameri-
can households have two cars
parked out front. The cost Of
mere ownership ~ let alone
operation--of an automobile Is
SO great that as far in the future
as any prophet can see, most
families simply will not be able
to afford two.
No statistics are available on
the percentage Of one-car fami.
lies that cannot afford the cars
they now operate.
Strapped After I3 Years.
Automobiles traditionally are
scrapped after about Is years
of use. More accurately, scrap-
ping Of old cars In significant
numbers normally begins about
- model years after original