Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1955-04-10
POPULATION
Continued From First Page

100000 by 1870. was a possibility
foreseen by DR.. Pickard.
william n. Press, executive vice
president of the Board of Trade,
points to the possibility of the
return to the city of Older per-
sons whose children have grown
up, whose suburban homes are
larger than needed, and who
want to be closer to the center
of the city.
School Figures Used
DR.. Pickard based his estimates
for the population trends on
school enrolment figures. the
numbers of births and deaths,
and employment. Most important
in his tabulation of the shift in
population are the school enroll
ment figures and those for the
natural increase in population.
He cited these enrolment
figures for grades / through 6
In the Districts public schools:
White children-October. 1858.
q total of 23,203; November, 1854,
an enrolment of 2l.l93; eX-
pected increase due to aging. $50;
decrease due to migration from
the city. 2.760; net change, a
drop of 2,0l0.
Colored children-O C t o b er.
1858, enrolment. 32.446; No
vember. 1854, a total of 5000:
increase due to aging, 3,l30; in
crease due to migration into the
city, 454: total increase, 1884.
According to Dr.. Pickard's
figures, the city's population at
the beginning of 1854 was about
$4,000, falling to the 100000
figure by the end of the year.
This is at variance with the
Census Bureaus estimate. which
put the poulation at $4,000 on
July /. 1854.
Other Estimates Noted
Other estimates of 1860 and
1870 population in the District
were listed last week in report
by Harold M. Lewis. planning
consultant for the Washington
Zoning Revision Office.
This report cites the projec-
tions by Raymond F. Clapp. of
the District Department of Pub
lie Welfare, putting the District
population in 1860 at 908. 1000.
Mr.. Clapp's 1870 figure is
100000.
The report said the consensus
of a number of population
specialists appears to be that the
number of people willing" to
live in the District will ultimate
ly be between 100000 and / mil
lion. 1t adopts $4,000 for 1870
as a weighted selection from the
various estimates.
DR.. Pickard'S decrease of TO-
900 was arrived at this way:
Population loss of white peo-
pie due to removal to the sub
urbs was put at approximately
$4,000. Against this was natural
increase-excess of births over
deaths-of 5000. The net loss,
therefore, was about 10000.
The colored population. mean
while. increased by 10000 This
number resulted from a natural
increase of 1000 plus 5000 new
corners to the city.
Employment Plays Part
The projection to 1860, when
DR.. Pickard expects the popula-
ton to reach $4,000, is based
on the assumption that Govern
ment employment will rise to
100000 plus an increase in pri-
vate employment. Government
employment is now about $500
The trend to the suburbs. in
DR.. Pickard's opinion. is due to
higher incomes making it pos
sible for people to satisfy the
urge for more space. and by
larger families, making it de-
sirable to have more space.
He comedies there is some
movement from the city due to
desires to move from neighbour
hoods which have become BIZ
racial. But he believes that by
the end of 1856 most Of those
who are going to move for that
reason will have moved.
One striking phenomenon has
been the relative stability of
the proportion Of the colored
population in the Metropolitan
Area as a whole. While the
colored population in the Dis
trict has increased from 28.5