Evening star., 1954-12-19
Trade Experts See
Gains in IS With
Jobs Still Problem
By Erancis P. DouuIas


dict "a good year ahead for the
Nations business, with 1855
activity generally running ahead
of this year.
/ A number, however, did not
go SO far as to predict that the
1858 peaks would be exceeded.
Exceptions to this were the ex-
pectations of the department
store, food chain, construction
and real estate businesses. They
believe the 1853 records will be
exceeded.
These looks into the future
were taken at a symposium held
by the United States Chamber
of Commerce. Taking part were
leaders in transportation, con-
struction, manufacturing and
distribution groups
Emerson P. Schmidt, the
chambers director of economic
research. wound up the sympo-
stun with a summary Of eco
nomic trends.
He estimated that production
! in 1855 would show gains OF
from 2 to S per cent above 1854.
If 1t reaches 5 per cent, the 1855
billion record figure of 1853
would be topped. The figure this
year is about 1856 billion.
Here, in brief, are the high
lights of the statements of the
symposium participants:
Distribution Group
National Retail Dry Goods AS
sociatiOn, Wade G. McCargo.
/ president - Department store
sales are now just 2 per. cent
under the record business of 1858
and with ecord-breaking Christ
mas sales the 1858 figures may
be equalled or missed by only
l per cent. Mr.. McCargo ex-
pressed confidence there would
be a 3 per cent gain In 1855
over 1854.
National Association of Food
Chains, John A. Logan, presi-
dent-Sales are running 6 per
cent ahead of 1853 and prob
ably will total $14.5 billion this
year. Next year is expected to
show a slight gain over this.
National Association of Whole
salers, Paul H. Bolton, executive
vice president-Sales in 1855
are expected to be somewhat
better" than in 1854, with some
spending by the consuming
public.
Manufacturing Group.
Radio ElectrOnics Television
Manufacturers Associate o n,
James D. Secrest, executive vice
president-Sales in the military
and entertainment fields de-
clined slightly in dollar value in
1854. Retail sales of TV receiv-
ers, however, will set a new
record, with probably Z million
units sold against 6.3 million in
1858. Next year. dollar returns
from TV sales will equal or ex-
ceed the 1854 figure. Military
electronic equipment was down
10 per cent from 1858 to 1854.
1t is unlikely that the demand
will go lower and it may rise.
Manufacturing Chemists AS
sOciation, William C. Foster,
president-The 1854 sales will
closely approximate the $19.8
billion record of 1853. A still
higher figure is indicated for
next year if the economy "goes
along on a generally good basis"
National Tool and Die Manu-
facturers Association, George S.
Eaton, executive secretary-The
value of shipments is off 10 to
II per cent compared to 1858,
the biggest year. The outlook for
next year is about the same as
for this year.
Institute of Scrap Iron and
Steel, Edwin c. Barringer, execu-
tive vice Observation-Disclosures
are for a 10 per cent improve
ment in 1855.
| The last two industries are
regarded as barometer industries
in the economy.
Construction Group.
National Association of Home
builders, John w. Dickerman,
executive director-1954 home
building was estimated at $13.6
billion, with IL million starts,
exceeded only in 1850 when the
volume included large number
of rental units and public hous-
ing. The prediction was for 1.3
million starts in 1855 if condi-
tions are favorable.
National Association Of Real
Estate Boards, Charles T. Stew
art. public relations director
Record year expected in 1855
and a firming of prices for ex-
listing homes. The volume of
home improvements was esti-
mated at $12 billion for 1854.
Association of American Rail-
roads. Robert S. Henry. vice
president-In 1854, compared
with 1853, freight traffic has been
down 10 per cent. passenger traf-
f1c down 7 per cent and net in
come down 80 per cent. There
is some hope that 1855 revenues
will be ahead of those of this
year. So far. car loadings do not
bear out expectations of better
business in 1855.
American Trucking Ass0cia-
tions, Neil j. Curry. president
Revenue and tonnage for 1854
are estimated to run 4 or 5 pei
cent under 1858. I'm 1855, We
will see these figures bouncing
back along with general bushes:
conditions. The industry viii
have to buy million new trucks
in 1888