Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1954-01-27
Woshingtons Big Future VsuuIized by Land Economist

What would q panorama Of
Washington and its surrounding
area look like in the future?
DR.. Homer Hoyt. nationally
known land economist. drew this
futurama OF the Nations Capital
and its environs in q talk yes
terday before the Business Out
look Conference Of the Washin-
tong Board of Trade:
A Metropolitan Area with a
of 1880, 900 by 1860,
2.3 million by 1870. and rs mil
lion by 1880. "
Additional new Office buildings.
hotels, apartment houses. and a
convention hall in the downtown
area. There would also be a huge
stadium for athletic and other
events.
Laboratories attracted by Gov
eminent activities in research.
industries and additional Gov
eminent buildings in an outlying
belt around the city. There would
be huge regional shopping CEN
tiers.
Those who live in outlying
country areas would reach the
center of the city speedily by ex-
press highways.
Referring to the decline in
Federal employment. he said that
movement is leveling off, and
there will be a gradual rise over
a long period.
On Growth of Capital.
The question DR.. Hoyt set for
himself was: "Will our National
Capital continue to grow in
numbers?"S This is the text Of
that part Of his speech wherein
he answered the question:
First, Washington is the cap
ital of a dynamic nation of 161
million people that is expected
to grow to 200 million by 1870
and to 220 million by 1880, and
not a static nation, which ac-
cording to population forecasts
made 20 years ago would never
exceed l55 million in numbers.
Second. the National Capital
is now the defense headquarters
of the free world-it is a pool
of technical knowledge and sci
entific research for making new
discoveries in military and naval
weapons which are also closely
linked to new methods and new
devices for civilian consumption.
Our Federal Government must
exercise its powers to protect the
health and welfare of all of its
citizens. Decentralization of
Government agencies outside of
Washington Metropolitan Area
has been carried as far as it is
feasible.
There is a certain relationship
between the population of a ma
tional capital and the population
of nation. In the first three
decades Of this century the pop
ulation of. the Washington Met
ropolltan Area was only about
half OF l per cent of the national
population. AS the functions
and responsibilities of the Fed
eral Government increased, this
increased 70 nearly / per cent
in 1850 and 1t Is now about IL
per cent.
Low Compared With Others.
The percentage is extremely
low compared with other nations.
About IL per cent of the in
habitants of France live in
metropolitan Paris, II per cent
OF the people of Great Britain
and Northern Ireland live in
London and 10 per cent of the
population of Argentina live in
BuenoS Aires. In the Soviet
Union. which was predominantly
a rural agricultural nation until
recently, 2.14 per cent of the
entire population both in Europe
and Asia live in Moscow. If the
same proportion of the popula-
ton of the United States lived
in the Washington metropolitan
area. 1t would now have a popula-
ton of 3.5 million or double its
present population.
We have estimated that even
as the National Capital alone,
without the industrial potential,
the Washington metropolitan
area. with only 1.16 or LIS per
cent of the Nations population,
would have 10000 residents
in 1860: 2.3 million in 1870 and
2.5 million in 1850. This would
be an increase of only $4,000
for the next 6 years, or 10000
a year, compared with 86,40O a
year for the last 4 years; 22,500
a year for the decade from 1860
to 1870 and 10000 a year for
the decade 1870 to 1880.
TN his discussion of popula-
ton growth, he said that,
while the Metropolitan areas
population in 1850 was 81 of
l per cent of the total popula-
ton of the country, it is now
1.09 per cent. He estimated the
areas 100000 people in
1860 would be is per cent of
the Nations ITS million people.
The estimated area popula-
ton of 2.3 million 1870, he said.
would be LIS per cent of a 200
million total, and in 1880. the
2.5 million area population