Evening star., 1954-01-08
Lutin America Leads
In Population Growth
Figures Show Area Could
Have 5 Billion by 1000
BY Thomos R. Henry

Latin America is the worlds most
explosive area of population growth.
theoretically. if present birth and
death rates remain constant. the con-
tinent could reach population of bill
lion in another century. Other factors.
however. doubtless will prevent such an
astronomical increase.
This conclusion comes from studies
by the staff of the Population Reference
Bureau, just reported by DR.. Robert c.
Cook, its director.
The present estimated growth rate,
DR.. Cook says, is 25 per cent annually.
The population of the world as a whole
Is growing at the rate of per cent an
nually. That of the United States at
present is increasing IL per cent a
year.
Estimates put the present total
population Of Latin America. including
the West Indies. at about 173 million.
approximately equal to the combined
totals of the United States and Cam
ada" DR.. Cook explains. But should the
hemispheres present growth rates con-
tinue to the year 1000 the population
score would stand at $50 million for
North America and $50 million in Latin
America. The Latin American popula-
ton would triple in At years.
Death Rates Down.
But even faster growth is possible.
Death rates have shown a substantial
decline. There is considerable latitude
for further decline in most countries,
because modern medicine and tech
nology could reduce these drastically.
The traditionally high birth rates are
expected to remain high for some time
to come. If high fertility persists and
mortality sharply declines, present rates
OF growth will skyrocket in many coun-
tries. Age distribution in the Latin
American countries indicates that, with
few exceptions. notably Argentina, the
populations are relatively young. This
is one Of the reasons why birth rates
are expected to remain high for many
years. Argentina's age structure is
similar to that of the United States.
Should death rates fall to the level Of
the United States rate and birth rates
remain at present levels, the areas rate
Of growth would increase to 3.3 per cent
annually. The population would pass
the billion mark soon after the year
1000.
Were the population of all Latin
America to increase 33 per cent. to-
days 173 million would grow to billion
in a century. Nobody expects such
astronomical increases to occur, because
the social and economic changes which
would make possible a lasting decline
in the death rate would be expected
also to produce eventually decline in
the birth rate
Alarming Possibility.
While a 5-billion population seems
unlikely. DR.. Cook declares, the more
practical possibilities are somewhat
alarming, for even now large numbers
Of Latin Americans are undernourished
The average daily per capita caloric
supply is 2,429. varying from 1920 in
Peru to 3.190 in Argentina. This COM
pares with 313O in the United States
and 3,060 in Canada
There are no indications" Dr. Cook
says. that the land can support two or
three times the present population.
Most of the terrain is unstable, highly
subject to erosion. and now is extern
sively exposed to destructive agricul-
tural and forestry practices. The dis
tribution of the present population is
such that heavy concentration of people
in the mountainous regions is seriously
depicting the soil resources. This is
resulting in a widespread and often
alarming degradation of the carrying
capacity of the land"
The present growth patterns for diff
ferent countries vary great deal, DR..
Cook concludes. Costa Rica already has
almost reached the predicted maximum
rate. 80 per cent annually. Guatemala
has the highest birth rate, balanced by
the highest death rate.