Evening star., 1954-01-06
Shopeof Things to Come Disturbs France
By Crosby S. Noyes
Foreign Correspondent Of The ssOr

SoVGsRoIt0Ots
PARIS (By MaiD. - In this city.
where SO many of the troubles OF the
western world are concentrated. Happy
New Year" is more prayer than a
hope.
The people Of Paris are greeting the
new year cheerfully enough. Theaters.
restaurants and railroad stations are
doing rushing business. The warmest
winter In decades has prolonged the
tourist season. Hotels and shops are
crowded. Every one is very gay.
But the specter Of the morning after
is always there. And there are few
Frenchmen today who seem to take
much comfort in the shape Of things
to come.
There is q kind of ominous atmos-
phere here which impresses even the
newcomer. Old hands who have been
studying the French picture for long
time admit they have never been more
confused and disturbed by the mood OF
the French. Even sensible people are
talking seriously about revolution.
Top diplomats here discount this talk
They admit that the people are fed up.
dlsgusted and Inundated by the past
performance and future prospects OF
their government. Most Of them would
welcome any change which offered real
hope of improvement. But the feeling
is that although the people are un-
happy. they are not desperate. And bad
as conditions are, they are not yet IN
tolerable.
r,loo !, F,,r+horvo0ro one vital in
gredient lacking. In France today there
are no leaders popular enough, and no
organizations disciplined enough 10
rally the people behind a dramatic
coup d'etat. So far as can be seen,
&here is no catalyst to solidify the COM
pletely atomized French society.
The Communists, who at one time
might have pulled it off, are too weak.
Thanks largely to their own blunders'
the party has been isolated and lden-
titled in the popular mind as foreign
inspired conspiracy. Reds who once IN
flltrated the army and every key gov
ernment bureau have been quietly nut
effectively rooted out. Today the party
shoulders much of the popular blame
for its part in framing the unworkaole
constitution of the Fourth Republic.
The number of hard-core members
has decreased steadily. In recent years,
the party leaders have been unable
even to call an effective strike.
An even greater weakness nam
strings the extreme right side OF the
political lineup. Gen. De Gaulle exer-
cises no effective leadership even over
his own party in the National Assem-
bly,. His popular following in France
is rated at just about zero. Among the
other military leaders, none has shown
any special political talent or ambition.
And the whole idea of military rule is
at this point intensely distasteful to the
French.
The prospects, as they look from
here, include no radical changes either
for better or worse. No one is willing
to make any fiat predictions for the
next few months. but the betting. at
the moment. goes something like this:
POlitics-The best guess is that
the present team will stay in at least
until after the Berlin four-power meet
ing on January 25. President Coty
wouldn't like to risk the possibility Of
not having a foreign minister to rep
resent him in talks with the Russians.
He can avoid this simply by refusing
to accept the designations Of Messrs.
Laniel. Bidault, ct al. when he takes
over on January II. After Berlin, the
real trouble starts. Pessimists are pre-
dieting that it will be impossible to
form a new government in the wake of
the bitterness stirred up by the recent
presidential election. OptimiSts hope
that the political leaders may have
learned lesson from their election ex-
perience and frightened themselves
into mending their ways.
Military-The war in Indo-China
is the big issue. and the trickiest thing
in the French political picture. The
war is growing more and more unpopu-
lar in spite of increased American
help. The present government would
like to stick it out until enough force
can be brought to bear on the Com
munists to make them negotiate seri-
ously. At this point. an armiStice would
add up to a complete defeat for the
free World Other factors against pull
ing out: The blow to French prestige
which has been bolstered by the Indo-
Chinese performance. the loss of Amer
lean aid and the situation in North
Africa, where French colonial policy is
under attack by nationalist groups.
On the home front. the outlook is
for more and heavier cuts in military
expenditures. following the American
lead. A slight relaxation of effort IN
the United States inevitably means a
bigger one here. where military burdens
are heavier.
Foreign POlicy-The French have
already started their own agoniz-
ing reappraisal of foreign policy. The
pessimiSts say that the European De-
fense Community is dead; others look
to the results of the Berlin conference
before making predictions. If the Rus
slams make 1t clear that they won't play
ball, the present trend toward neutral
ism and wishful thinking may be re-