Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1954-01-24
By Crosby S. Noye.

PARIS, January 23.--Perhaps as
q part of the general belief IN
portentious things to come, many
Europeans are expecting q dramatic
move by the Kremlin to Iberalize
East-West trade.
There is even some discussion OF
the possibility that this may be one
of the Russian secret weapons being
numbered for the Big -Four con-
ference in Berlin. The idea Is that
at the strategic moment the Reds
would spring a proposal for full
dress trade conference with gilt
edged invitations for critical western
European nations.
Judging from reports. rumors OF
this impending move are looked on
with alarm in the United States.
The impression seems to be that it
would amount to an economic lever
designed to pry apart the western
coalition. Americans anyway are
inclined to finch when the subject
of East-West trade is brought up.
Western Europe, be it said. is
looking forward to this possible de-
velopment with all the miSgivings Of
an old maid looking under her bed.
One of the more sensible Paris news
papers, France-Soir, summed up an
article the other day on the posi-
bilitieS of East-West trade with the
hope that ION both planes. political
and economic, the spring of 1854
might mark q relaxation Of inter-
national tension. and sensible step
toward the end Of the cold war;"
Cold Voter
Unfortunately perhaps. economic
experts here who have been studying
the new Russian trends are inclined
to throw cold water on tho whole
idea of q dramatic change In the
East-West trade picture.
Admitting that the Kremlin shows
Mgns Of . mild sort Of economic
peace offensive, these authorities
suspect that it is Of Q temporary
nature. And even. II something
startling should develop. they deny
that serious rift between the
United States and Western Europe
would necessarily follow.
The basis for the experts argu-
ments involve three points. These
are:
. A scepticism, based on avail
able statistics. that any large-scale
increase in East-West trade Is, in
fact. In progress.
. The conviction that however
Russia may juggle its trade policy
to meet current political require
ments, it has neither the will nor
the capacity to provide real mar
ket for Western Europe in the long
run.
. The argument that q relaxa-
ton of trade restrictions between
Western Europe and the Iron Cur
tain countries would be welcome
from the point Of view Of United
States interests.
To deal with the last Of these
points first. it must be pointed out
that these officials are not looking
for an about assault by the Krem-
lin upon the voluntary prohibitions
now in effect on strategic trade to
the eastern bloc. There is, admit
tedly, ground for disagreement and
friction between the Western al
lies on the question of what is
strategic commodity. But the predic-
ton is that Russia will steer clear
of this contentious field in an open
ing bid to improve commercial rela-
tons with Western Europe.
When it comes to the more harm
less forms Of commerce. there is
little inclination among American
officials here to discourage it, even
supposing that they could. There
is growing realization that West
ern Europe must trade with some
one to survive, and if that trade
is with the Russians on reasonably
equal terms no one is in a sound
position to object.
At the same time there is little
doubt that once Russia gets a foot
in the door good deal of pulling
and hauling will ensue. Assuming
that Russia really is out to drum