Evening star., 1954-10-14
The Political Mill
The Political Mil
Neck and Neck Finish
Certoin in Senate Race
Ia Scots in Is Stotes Con
Go Either Woy on Nov. z
By Gould Lincoln

CHEYENNE, Wyo.--As the campaign
of 1854 rounds into the homestretch,
the race for control of the Senate In
the 84th Congress promises neck ana
neck finish. Control may go to either
the Republicans or the Democrats by
a margin Of one or two seats.
Disregarding the fact that several
Senate seats are now filled by tenn
porary appointments, which make the
count 40 Republican Senator's. 46 DEM
ocratic and one Independent. the
actual, basic political complexion OF the
Senate remains as it was at the open
ing of the present Congress, 48 Repub-
licans, AZ Democrats and one Inde-
pendent.
Take look at the Senate contests in
that great area Of the United States
west of the Mississippi River. Eighteen
Senate seats are at stake. -Four Of them
are in States safely Democratic-Loul-
siana, Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma
despite the fact Gen. Eisenhower car
ried two of them in 1852.
The other IA in 13 States, provide
backgrounds, although some seem at
this stage safely Democrat and some
SaIely HepupucaH.
States Listed.
These States are Minnesota, Iowa.
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Mon
tana, Wyoming. Colorado, New Mexico,
Idaho, Oregon, California and Nevada.
Seven of these Senate seats are held by
Republicans in the basic count going
back to January, 1858, and seven by
IT. 49, eykxyy Gn.
up of the Senate, therefore, Democrats
or Republicans must make net gains
in those States now held by the oppo-
sition. What are the, probabilities?
Take the Democratic seven seats first
Senator Humphrey is likely to retain
his seat in Minnesota's election. In
deed, his victory appears almost Ger
tain. Senator Gillette is having tough
battle in Iowa and could lose. Senator
Murray seems reasonably sure to win
in Montana. Former Senator O'Ma-
honey is likely winner in Wyoming
and SO is Senator Anderson in New
Mexico. John Carroll, Democrat, has
the edge in Colorado, and Alan Bible.
Democrat, in Nevada. There could be
upsets in Iowa, in New Mexico, in
Wyoming and Colorado. Iowa, how
ever, remains the most likely gain for
for the Republicans.
: Now take look at the Republican
Senators and seats which they are
striving to hold. Senator Mundt seems
sure of reelection in South Dakota.
The two Nebraska seats also seem safe
for the Republicans-both are filled
today by temporary appointments. Sem
ator Schoeppel will be reelected in
Kansas unless there is a political up
heaval. Senator Dworshak is expected
to win in Idaho. Senator Gordon is en-
gagged in knockdown, drag-out fight
in oregon and could lose to his Demo-
cratic opponent, Richard Neuberger.
Kuchel Has Edge.
Senator Kuchel, serving under ap-
pointment, has the edge in California,
but he, too, could lose. The prospect
here for Democratic gains from the
Republicans are perhaps limited to
Oregon and California. although they
have outside chances in Idaho.
Unless these estimates are wrong,
neither the Democrats nor the Repub-
licans will make material gains in the
Senate in these 13 States. A conServa-
, tive estimate is that the Democrats
may gain two, and the Republicans one
Senate seat when all votes are counted.
Or it might go the other way.
Republicans and Democrats alike are
fighting apathy in these Senate races.
In some contests there is mud sling
ing. and others are on higher plane.
But in none of the States has the public
Iry M avid <nf
a great undercurrent, either for Demo-
Gratis or Republicans, has made itself
discernible. The Democrats are count
ing mainly on irritation of farmers and
cattlemen over low prices, on disgrun-
tied unemployed and workers who no
longer receive overtime pay and still
others who are fearful of losing their
jobs. If these irritants increase, or II
they are more deep-seated and preva-
lent than now appears. there could be
a real swing to the Democrats that
would defeat a sizable number of Re-
publican candidates for the Senate in
this area. Also, the Democrats are
ringing the changes on public water
power development and operation.
The three talking points of major
Importance to the Republicans are, first,
a plea to elect Republican Congress
to back the President; second, the peace
issue-it's better to have peace with
Republicans than war with the Demo-
Gratis and, third, the so-called Red is
sue, which charges the Democrats in
the last two administrations with ap-
peasement. No one is sure yet how
potent these issues are.