Evening star., 1954-04-19

black market trade supplies the
Wet Mini with food and sup
plies. for example. But thus far.
the remedies are only in the
talking stage.
The French insist the Wet
Mimi already have reached the
peak of their effort. that the
rebel forces can improve in quail
ity with Chinese advice and sup
plies but not in quantity. Yet
the same French admit that Hos
forces even now remain at full
strength, despite his steady and
heavy losses.
With his system of recruit
ment. starting at the village
level, his pool of reserves seems
almost bottomless.
The French say they hope by
1855 to develop a Wet Namese
army which can take over ma
tional defense. There is even
some French hope that by next
fall the Wet Namese can take
over large areas in the Red River
delta Of Tonkin and elsewhere,
permitting the French to launch
an all-out offensive against Ho.
The prospects, however, seem
dim.
In the opinion Of experienced
American military observers. the
Wet Namese army will not be
ready. They say it will be three
years-maybe f1ve-before the
Wet Nam army as an effective
fighting force can shoulder re-
sponsibility for the defense Of
its own nation.
Importance Outstrips Size.
Wet Nam. one of the three
associated states of Indo- China.
has an Importance today vastly
out of proportion to its size. In
area-127, 900 square miles-it is
the size of Kansas and Pennsyl-
vania combined. It has % mil
lion people, or as many as New
York and Illinois together. This
is not very big in sprawling Asia,
but the whole continent is
watching anxiously.
On the credit side of the
ledger. the French still control
the key delta areas-the pie
shaped wedge on the north with
Hanoi as its focal point and
most of Cochin China in the
south. In the northern delta
area some seven million people
are nominally under French
control, as compared with only
two to three million under Wet
Mimi control in Tonkin. In all
Wet Nam, the French continue
to control areas sheltering more
than half the population. And
the areas which the French con-
troll are rich producing ones
which feed the land and used
to feed much of Asia.
On the debit side, the Wet
Mimi are strong inside the
French-held Tonkin delta. ready
to strike when and if the signal
is given. The Wet Mimi also
retain the initiative, choosing
the time and place of battle.
The rebels have forces scattered
all through the French-con-
trolled areas. posing a constant
danger to French control.
For the time being the battle
is only for Wet Nam. The
fighting in Laos and Cambodia
is relatively unimportant. The
Laotians appear to hate Com
muniStS and Chinese with equal
fervor.
Blow to Vests Prestige.
If Wet Nam should fall-even
if part of Wet Nam should be
turned over to Ho and his Com
munists-other Asians will be
sure they see the handwriting
on the wall. They could be ex-
pected to try salvaging what
they could from what they would
regard as an unStemmable tide
of communism. Western inf1u-
ence and prestige would suffer
and communism drive through
Asia would be considerably eased.
1--WE are over a barrel at Ge-
neva." a high-ranking American
told me in Indo-China. IF there
is an armistice, the political side
goes into action. Ho Chi Mimi
has the only organized, disci-
plined force in Wet Nam. If this
means a coalition government
is in the offing, the Communists
surely will win out in the long
run. The only thing we can do
at Geneva is not bulge an inch" !"
But this war is being fought
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