Evening star., 1954-01-03


An economists debate over a con-
tinuing prosperity VS.. an imminent
recession or depression for the new
year reached a climax last week.
Meeting here. 800 experts voiced
predictions that ranged from f.
nancial disaster to boom. A ma
jority agreed. however. that 1854
would bring an orthodox recession"
- slight leveling off from business
peaks-which would result in some
unemployment and cuts in produc-
ton.
While the economists express their
theories. what are the men who
actually run the Nations business
thinking? What do they see for the
future?
Earl Bunting, managing director
of the National Association of Man
ufacturers and a leading Industrial
ist, SCOTS at the Spectre Of Slump"
He fatty refuses to accept the
theory of a possible depression and
he opposes the kind of thinking
that stimulates abnormal business
peaks.
I'VE can talk ourselves into any,
thing" he says, but If we look for
ward to a positive prosperity. un-
hampered by politically tinged pre-
dictions, no crystal ball could be
big enough to hold the picture of
our economic future"
$500 Billion Product
BY 1875, Mr.. Bunting says, Amer
icas gross national product will rise
to $700 billion. twice that of 1852.
He adds that the labor force will in
crease at a steady rate of one million
new jobs in each of the next 20 years
until we have approximately 88
million employed. A total of 850, 900
new business firms will be added
during that period. he estimates.
BY 1875 Mr.. Bunting sees stand
ard Of living which will dwarf that
achieved in the last decade. He
thinks labor will prosper as never
before and industry and business
will hum in an atomic and elec-
tronic age.
Mr.. Bunting's forecast of $700
billion productivity by 1875 exceeds
former President Truman's 1850
prediction of a trillion- dollar ma
tional output by the year 1000. In
1850 the gross production was ap-
proximately $311 billion. II Mr..
Bunting's goal is achieved by 1875,
a proporitonate increase in the fol-
lowing Is years would bring the Ma
tion's output to more than STA
trillion by the end of this century.
The key to this rosy economic fu-
ture is stability and productivity,
Mr.. Bunting says. If America sud-
denly is plunged into a full-scale
war, nothing will be secure.
To reach the 1875 goal, I'VE must
keep our defenses against Commu-
nism and other potential aggressors
so strong that we cannot be at
tackled successfully. After securing
our borders. we must begin chip
ping away at excessive Federal con-
troll over business, State government
functions and freedom OF the lndl-
vidual working man. The Federal
Government must be put on puSl-
ness-like basis where saving Of
even a dollar a day in each small
Office can be viewed as step to-
ward economy"
The NAM executive believes the
Nations defense cost burden is more
or less fixed. He feels that through
more efficient operation in the Pen
tagon, less duplication of effort and
greater unification of the armed
services, some saving can be effected
without crippling our strength. He
views Defense Secretary Wilson's
economies in his first year as step
in that direction.
But, Mr. Bunting warns, indus
try-and labor-must have stability
above all. Despite the inflated dol
lar, we will have prosperity if we
not only can hold, but steadily
increase the value of our money.
We must be certain that some Gov
ernment bureaucrat will be pre-
vented from springing a new eco
nomic scheme on us each year.
People are markets and markets