Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1954-03-23
Disaster Plan
For Bethesda
Area Is Model
$1,000 Casualties
Seen if H-Bomb
Drops on EIIipse

A hydrogen bomb explosion.
looSed in a surprise night attack
and set of just over the Ellipse,
would cause $4,000 casualties in
the Bethesda Chevy Chase area
unless advance precautions
were in effect.
This SOLDERING warning comes
from the Operations Research
Office of Johns Hopkins Univer-
Sity, which last night released
details of q study of Civil De-
tense measures and methods Of
minimizing hydrogen bomb cas-
ualties in a school district.
~ And. the report adds, that Of
the $4,000 casualties, 14,500
would be deaths.
The Operations Research Of
flee, a civilian scientific agency
under contract to the Army,
made its report as part of a FIVE
year study of civil defense meas
ureS relating to the Army'S re-
Sponsibilities in a disaster. The
research Office based its study
on the Bethesda Chevy Chase
area and its population of about
$4,000 persons.
''ModeI'' Plan.
The operations research ONCE
collaborated with the Bethesda
Chevy Chase High School and
its Parent Teacher Association
to make a full-scale study and
disaster plan intended as a pro
totype and model" for commu-
mites anywhere.
The result, published today.
Is a 136-page book that goes into
such minute details as the
monthly maintenance costs of
various warning systems that
might be installed in the school
building and advice to mothers
on improvising diapers during
a period when clothes washing
might be impossible.
And the book. frankly de-
signed to shock citizens into &C
ton, begins with the words, In
Bethesda, we live for the first
time in 140 years in mortal dan
ger from a foreign enemy. {.
A Soviet attack on Washington
teeters on the brink of Happen
ing, becauSe-aS with an oily rag
left with combustible material in
q baSement-the conditions are
ripe for disaster"
The report by the research Of
fee did not go into the probable
casualties in the densely popu-
lated capital itself that would re-
suit from the hypothetical H
bomb blast above the Ellipse.
Just south of the White House.
But for Bethesda Chevy Chase
1t considered the effect of attacks
at different times and with Diff
ferent degrees Of surprise.
Based on Night Attack.
The maximum casualty figure
was estimated for a surprise
night attack. A bombing with
out warning in the daytime
might cause fewer total casual
ties, but the probable death toll
was raised to 16,700 on the
theory that more people might
be out of doors, exposed to heat,
blast ana Tying debris.
Fifteen minutes warning. the
researchers calculated. would
bring night time casualties down
to 10000, including up to 1900
deaths, and daylight casualties
to $500, with up to $500 deaths.
And it said an adequate warn
ing system and shelters could
bring the number down near
zero.
Throughout, the book empha-
sizes the family as the basic
unit in defense.
Planning at the school is
based on getting as many stu
dents home as possible if there
is any warning time, and if the
homes are not more exposed
than the school. A comprehen-
sive civil defense organization
at the school itself is also out
lined.
Students Classified.
Students were classified,
through a lengthy QUESTIONABLE,
so that authorities know how
many can be expected to walk
home, how many to drive, how
many to remain. how many have
parents who would not be at
home during working hours and
how many are responsible for
younger brothers or sisters at
other schools.
Most of the book is devoted
to concrete suggestions for fam
lily preparations and means of
continuing essential household
activities after an attack.
There are step by step plans
for building various kinds of
basement shelters, privies and
other emergency sanitation
facilities; a list of streams and
other emergency sources of water
and instructions Of methods of
purifying water, lists Of tools,
equipment, clothing, deodorants
and medical supplies with guam
titles needed per person; instruc-
lions on outdoor cooking with
minimum equipment.
Estimates Of physical destrYlc-
ton in the far-hung school dis
trict ranged from virtually total
demolition Of frame buildings at
the end nearest the hypothetical
blast to broken windows at the
far end.
The report will be presented by
its author, DR.. John Balloch OF
the Office professional staff, at a
meeting Of the Bethesda Chevy
Chase High School Parent
Teacher Association tonight at 8
o'clock in the girls gymnasium
Of the school building. Mai. Gen.
Lewis B. Hershey, selective serv-
ice dironf0ps o1cn mill cvAool~