Evening star., 1953-01-25
Prices in 1883
They Will Remain High; Economists Say,
But Prosperity Is Expected to Continue
By james Y. Newton

Economists, scholarly crystal
gazers who undertake to say how
well you, and they, will be eating
at a given point in the future, gem
orally are agreed that 1853 will be
a bountiful year for Americans.
They just exude optimism when
they look at estimates of the billions
Uncle Sam will keep on spending
for defense: the near-record num-
ber of billions business will venture
on expansion; the billions that will
go because of pent-up demands for
public works and new race tracks;
and the billions you and (mostiy
you) will be tossing out for all sorts
of things, as consumers.
In other words, the velocity of the
turnover of money. which approxi-
mates term the more erudite
economists use, will be very great
in 1853. That, it seems. is very good.
When you get past this year, say
into 1854, the crystals Of most Of
the economic experts turn some
what cloudy. They say you will have
to wait for such a long range fore
cast until seeing what President
Eisenhower does about Korea, West
ern Europe and other international
hot spots.
Assuming the international stu
alton settles down to Stalemate,
nearly all economists foresee a re-
cession in the United States some-
time. It could come in 1854. It might
approximate the 1949 recession in
effect. But most of the experts shy
away from forecasting either the
time or intensity.
StobIe Prices Expected
And the economists believe that
1853 will be a year Of fairly stable
prices. That means you will be
paying in the IL months ahead
about what you are now paying
for Things.
Food prices, generally. are ex-
pected to be down and up, and
mostly down, somewhat. The prices
of houSefurnishingS and clothing, if
they behave as expected, will con-
tinue to settle downward.
But these down. trends will be Off
set by an upward movement of rents
(Which have been going up slowly,
but surely, the past seven years. +,
of fuel, electricity and refrigeration
and what the Government Statisti-
clans call the miscellaneous" cate
CORY of consumer prices. In this
last, catch-all class they include
such things as streercar and bus
fares, haircuts and hair-dos, shoe
shines, medical and hospital care,
movies and other forms of rIcrea-
The conclusion is that what you
will be able to save from lower
prices of food. clothing and house.
furnishings, will be eaten up by the
higher prices you will pay in rent
and for fuel, electricity, refrigera-
ton and miscellaneous.
At this moment, it should be said
that these representations Of good
times and level prices are promised
on the good behavior of Joe Stain
If Stain should make grab for
Trans oil, or send his satellites into
Yugoslavia, for example, all bets,
and forecasts, would be off. Such
moves would send this country into
a state of all-out war.
Apparent Inconsistency
A large number of people have
been puzzled by price trends these
past % months. In fact, in some
quarters, the United States Bureau
of Labor Statistics, the official tabu-
lator, has been accused of stacking
the cards so that workers, whose
pay is largely tied to the rise or
fall of living costs, would get wage
increases. The mystery concerns
the fact that while wholesale prices,
as measured by BIS, have been
steadily declining since March, 1851.
Until recently, the trend of retail