Evening star., 1953-08-12
Our Census Clock and the Future

According to the Census Clock" Of the
Department Of Commerce, we are now Nation
Of more than 100 million people-the fourth
most populous in the world, ranking after
China with an estimated $50 million, India with
365 million and the Soviet Union with 200 mil
lion.
Like the rest Of mankind-which today
numbers considerably in excess of 2 billion and
which is increasing by at least 200 million every
decade-we Americans are multiplying our
selves very fast. Since April, 1850, when the
last decennial count was completed, our total
has grown by well over million. Accordingly,
II the present trend continueS-as seems likely
our population win be in the neighborhood
Of 180 million by 1860, mere seven years from
now.
Relatively speaking, to the extent that 1t
can be measured in terms of mounting num-
bers. our national vitality thus can be matched
by few other of the worlds peoples. For our
increase apparently represents appreciably
more than 10 per cent of the entire global
increase within recent years, and it seems
especially striking because there has occurred
at the same time steady improvement in our
living standards and our agricultural and in
dustrial productivity There is no evidence that
any country abroad, including Russia, has come
even close to equalling us in that sense.
Assuming again that our present rate Of
increase continues-that is to say, an increase
approximating IS million every decade-our
American population will range between ESQ
and 280 million by the end Of this century,
which is only Al years away. This prospect is
full of the greatest significance. Internation-
ally, it has highly important bearing on the
future balance Of power in world that prob
ably will have about / billion more human
beings than exist now. Domestically, the pres
ence Of 100 million or so additional citizens by
the year 1000 can hardly fail to have profound
effects on the nature of life and society in the
United States.
Looking not merely at our own country but
at the entire world, there are more than q few
Cassandras who warn that these current popu-
lation trends, unless checked and reversed, will
lead to a catastrophe OF global want and starva-
ton. But there are otherS-experts in their
f1elds-who argue quite to the contrary. Leav-
ing aside the food-creating potentialities Of
atomic energy, they hold that the earth Is
bountiful enough, If properly utilized to support
the prospective increase in human beings. In
deed, as far as the United States is concerned,
studies by organizations like the Brookings In
Stitution have arrived at the optimistic con-
clusion that our national economy can provide
good life for 800 million Americans on a plane
of living several times higher than our present
one.
A persuasive case has been made for such
optimism. Having In mind our constantly in
creasing population and productivity, econo-
mists have contended that between now and
the year 1000 our national income will treble
itself to a total of trillion or more dollars.
Further, they have predicted that the work.
week and the work-year will be sharply reduced
CIV f4Inu
in an age when only 80 million men may be
needed to turn out a volume Of goods equivalent
to what today requires the labor Of so million.
Needless to say, changes Of this sort, when
and If they come, will be far-reaching socially
as well as economically, but they could well re-
suit in greatly increasing the American stand
ard Of living they take place within the
framework Of certain basic conditions namely,
an enduring peace, proper use OF our natural
resources, continuing chronological advances to
insure steady increase in output per man
hour Of work, and the application Of wise
policies to promote such things rs hscal
stability.
Given these conditions, then our Census
Clock"-despite what the Cassandras say-can
keep on ticking toward future in which our
swiftly growing population conceivably may be
able to prosper in way never before seen in the
world. At any rate, that is the considered
opinion of the optimistic experts, and their
arguments seem more than little impressive.