Evening star., 1953-01-14
Economic Advisers Disosree ShorpIy on
Deflotion Forecast. Poee Az


report, Mr.. Truman pictured
today's unparalleled prosper
ity," high employment, and sta
BILE prices as being good through
out 1858. But he said that there
after:
"We may face in the future,
particularly when defense
spending can safely be reduced
more serious tests of our ability
to avoid depression than those
which have occurred since
World War H."
The President ignored a to /
split within his Council of Eco
nomic Advisers which, it de-
veloped, has disagreed on the
outlook for deflation in the next
three years when defense SPEND
ing is due to black off. The
councils economic review was
sent to Congress along with the
White House message.
Big Gain in Output.
Ten years from now, a labor
force of rs tC 80 million, work.
ing more effectively with better
tools but somewhat fewer hours
per week, could produce annu-
ally about $475 to $500 billion
worth of goods and services
measured in today's prices" Mr..
Truman said.
This is about 40 per cent
above the present level, and rep
resents an average increase of
slightly over 3 per cent a year"
Mr.. Truman gave these COM
parative figures:
National output now is $345
billion annually, as against $l72
billions in 1929, measured in dol
lars of 1852 buying power. In
dustrial output has doubled and
farm production risen about so
per cent. In the same period
the work week has dropped
from 48 to 40 hours, but the out
put of each worker has risen 80
per cent. Average annual in
come after taxes was $1,000 a
person in 1929 and last year
averaged $500, again measured
in 1852 prices.
Mr.. Truman emphasized the
projections against economic
collapse which have been de-
veloped in the period-a "fairer"
distribution of income, social
security. farm price supports. a
far from shockproof system of
banks and securities exchanges"
flrmer wage rates due mainly to
stronger unions, and more en-
lightened business practices" in
pricing, marketing and collec-
tive bargaining.
Increasing Confidence.
"And not the least of the sta
bilizing effects of these pro-
grams is the increasing conf
dence in the maintenance of
prosperity which they inspire"
he said.
However, such factors are not
in themselves sufficient to safe
guard the country from depres-
sion, Mr.. Truman cautioned. The
best protection is to keep the
economy expanding, he said, not
waiting until small recessions
start and then trying to reverse
them.
He continued:
"All experience has taught us
that, when the economy starts
to roll down hill, it becomes pro-
gressively more difficult to check
the decline.
1T is far easier, and a far
more rewarding task. to maintain
the momentum of a growing
economy than to reverse a down
ward spiral"
Better Distributed Income.
Not only more income but bet
ter-distributed income should be
the national goal, Mr.. Truman
said. One-quarter of all United
States families had less than
$4,000 of spendable income in
1851, he said. A third of them
had debts, and the median, or
middle, family in this group had
less than $40 in liquid assets, not
counting currency.
1T is feasible within a decade
to raise all the families whose
incomes are now below $4,000
annually to that level" he said.
"We should set this as a target
for a basic American standard
of living for all within decade"
His recommendation was con-
fcoo rCoNYonETrS no aA>