Evening star., 1953-03-22


Swell idea, but like the flashes Of
inspiration in Washington, it is a
long way from execution. Pitfalls
lie in all directions. All must 90
searched ont before cold-war move
can be decided upon.
Ivanov starts with one great adj
vantage over the State Department
planner. He does not have to con-
slider the man-in-the-Street. The
Communist Party does not worry
about the next election. No public
pressure groups, such as the NAM or
AFL or VFW, exist to demand a
share in each decision. There is
only the relatively small problem Of
laying down the propaganda line
after the decision is made.
On the other hand, Ivanov labors
under one tremendous handicap
that American strategists do not
have: If he makes a mistake, the
payof could be sudden death or a
long visit in Siberia.
So Ivanov's mind starts to churn.
How will the United States react
to another Berlin blockade, he asks
himself and his staff of advisers?
The last time it was tried, the
United States went to extravagant
lengths to keep the city alive, no
matter what the cost. Communism
lost prestige. Poor old Nikolai, the
author of the idea, is still shoveling
salt after that one.
What would the Republicans do?
President Eisenhower or Secretary
of State Dulles have been talking
peace, peace, peace, Ivanov broods.
but they continue to resist the
glorious Soviet fatherland. Don't
they know that peace" means "co-
operation with Russia's plans for
expansion?" All, the inscrutable
western mind!
What if the United States decides
to blast through the blockade?
Would that mean war? Does Amer
lea really want a war to keep its
economy from collapsIng-aS Com
rade Stain always told us?
Russio Ready for War?
And If a blockade means war, is
Russia ready? Here, for the first
time, Ivanov would think bit about
public opinion. Would the Russian
people follow the new regime into a
world war? Hundreds of thousands
of Russians detected to the enemy
during World War II. Could they be
counted on today? What do the
secret police say about that? And
is the Red Army ready for an atomic
war?
Would Russia gain or lose from q
war at this time? Ivanov must tread
carefully here, because he would be
entering the debate between the "ad.
venturiSts" and the "conSolidation-
lists" That is an argument which
parallels the disputes in the United
States between supporters of con-
tainment and advocates of liberia.
tion.
AS Ivanov wrestles mentally with
these questions, others arise. Would
Berlin blockade divide the West?
Would France and Britain want to
move cautiously and the United
States recklessly? The latest Com
munist strategy is to promote dis
sension in the free world.
But would blockade tend to uni
fy the West? In the past, Soviet
threats frequently have driven the
Western nations into each others
cfi LOT
That would mean Siberia for sure.
How would West Germany react?
A get-tough blockade would make it
well-nigh impossible to WOO the free
Germans with promises of Germanic
unity, not good thing for Ivanov.
He would give scant attention to
the reaction Of East German off,
cials. Like all good Russian puppets.
the East Germans can be expected
to do as they are told. This goes
for American Communist Party
members, too. Opinions of East
European satellite leaders would
mean as little.
How About Chino?
But China would be more of q
problem. Do the Chinese Commu-
nistS feel they have the right to be
treated as equal partners when a
decision that might mean world war
is taken? How far can Malenkov's
regime go with the expectation that
China will follow? It's up to Ivanov
to figure that one out. And the
thought Of Tito's detection haunts
him numerically.
Ivanov also may worry about the
quality of his information. He is
expected to arrive at the right con-
cluSionS, yet the facts upon which
he must base the decisions may not
be facts at all. They may be fic-
tion carefully made to follow the
Communist line by foreign service
agents who know on which side of
the bread the butter lies.
Some viewerS-with- alarm of the
American scene feel Washington's
policy makers may also be troubled
some day by inaccurate reports.
written to coincide with policy in
Foggy Bottom or on Capitol Hill.
But Ivanov. whether he knows it
or not, certainly does suffer from
warped reporting.
Theory Aside
One thing is sure. Ivanov won't
consult the writings of Marx, Lenin
and Stain before making up his
mind about the blockade. These
writings may form the bible Of god
less communism. But the men who
make the decisions are pragmatists.
They will do anything they think
will work. The sacred writings can
be stretched-or rewritten II neces-
sary-to sound like an Endorsement
OF any opportunistic move.