Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1953-03-19
Second q Three Articles

did. 4,
The Iranian situation is stili
full Of danger. Much Of it lies
in the possibility that Trans oil
crisis might be nearing a settle
ment. Any such development
which might have the effect Of
relieving tensions between Iran
and the West would hardly be.
taken lying down by the Soviet
Union and its, satellite Tudeh
Communist Party In iran.
ION Crisis Provides strength.
Part of the Incredible strength
Of Premier Mohsmmed MosSa-
degh. the sobbing, emotional but
strangely forceful leader Of the
National Front government, lies
in the oil crisis. It has given
Iran an outside enemy-the' Brit
ish-as a unifying force which
keeps the government together
and retains its broad mass sup
port.
Paradoxically enough, the Com
munist Party itself is a source
of strength for Premier Mossa-
degh. The Red menace is a
bIudgeon with which to threaten
the West, always fearful this
immensely sstrategically impor-
tant country might fall within
Communist domination.
But Iran is full of paradoxes,
not the least of which is this:
Aweak. doddering old man is the
ceuntry's pillar of strength. On
the stopped shoulders of the
weeping Premier MoSsadegh rest
the power and responsibility to
keep communism from engineer
ing situation where the country
will be ripe for the plucking.
Also paradoxically. settlement
Of the oil crisis might bring the
country more evil than good.
Could Hold OF Indefinitely.
If the Iranian government
should. win it's case before the1
Rome court on the case of the
5000 tons of oil on the tanker
Miriella. it could stand OF the
British indefinitely In the Anglo
Iranian dispute. If Iran broke
the ice and was able to sell a
relatively small portion of her
crude oiE the amount realized
in foreign exchange would cover
her National Iranian Oil Co.
deficit and a bit more.
But If she, sold a great deal
of oil, that might tend once again
only to strengthen the old feudal
SYSTEM BY selling just a little,
Iran can keep on her feet and
still have the oil situation as the
handy whipping boy to keep the
government in control.
Despite propaganda to the
contrary, Iran is not ION the
verge of bankruptcy" The loss
of the oil revenues did have the
effect Of cutting Iranian imports
and hating needed economic
development, but in general only
a small sections very small
section-of the nations 20 mil
lion people was directly affected.
Economy Not So Shaky.
The economy of the country
is not nearly so shaky as it has
been pictured. Iran cannot be
compared to any Western coun-
try. About 80 per cent of the
population is agricultural. The
people have a tradition of fatal
ism. They follow the leader,
whoever happens to be in power.
A great majority never had any,
thing but their teakettles and
the clothes on their backs. Their
mainstays of diet are tea, sugar
and bread. The villages are poor
and primitive and accustomed
to years to having landlords do
their thinking and acting In
feudal society. They live off the
land.
For this vast section Of the
population, bankruptcy is
meaningless term and the oil
situation means next to nothing.
To them the only important
thing is the crop, and there has
been succession Of good crop
years.
Imports Drop so Per Cent.
Trans imports have fallen off
SO per cent since the oil crises.
The oil revenues had paid for
such imports. But Iran in the
past year exported 10000 tons
Of rice, 10000 tons Of cotton and
quantities of such goods as dried
fruits, nuts, dates, sheepskins
and animal fats. Thus, oil has
simply been the icing on the
economic cake. It kept the big
shots in the cities rich and
helped city economies, but it
had virtually no effect in the
villages. Only on paper does
Trans economy depend on oil.
When imports dropped of,
the law Of supply and demand
set in. There was a natural re-
sistance to high prices for i'm
ported goods, much Of it luxury
goods which stu stands on the
shelves Of the bazaars. Most
vital imports are paid for by
Trans. exports and, meanwhile,
the 10000 workers remaining at
the Abadan refinery are paid by
borrowing from reserves.
| The oil crisis has affected the
IADvERTISENIENT.