Milford chronicle., 1953-08-14
Federal Reserve Bank Of Philadel-
Phia Reports On Current Trends

Until recently much of the busi-
ness thinking was in terms of a
moderate downturn after mid-year
Sentiment now appears to be taking
a more optimistic turn. And there
are signs of stability in various
sectors of the economy justifying
this change. in perspective. Most
observers are inclined to feel that
the Korean armistice is not to touch
off cut in Federal spending in the
immediate future. Business outlays
for productive facilities promise to
be greater than expected-anOther
important factor supporting high
level production, employment, and
income. No one can predict with
certainty what consumers will do
But there might be good reason to
expect that this new feeling Of
optimism, if not caught directly
by consumers, may be passed on
through high incomes to maintain
liberal spending. If this proves to
be the case, the potential problem
which some observers see in the
recent build-up of inventories in
their finished stage may dissolve.
Retail Volume is High by Almost
ANY Standard
Certainly, the record indicates
that up to now consumers have
been spending, and spending freely
Total dollar sales by retail stores
in the United States have run close
to record levels since last fall.
Volume on an adjusted basis has
been we'll above $14 billion monthly
since the beginning of this year,
or about z per cent more than in
the 1852 period. People have bought
houses almost as fast as they could
be built Purchases of new auto
mobiles and major household appi-
ances were exceptionally heavy
earlier this year. Then, during May
and June, the general merchandise
stores experienced a squirt in bust
ness, with dollar volume rising
well above it's first-quarter level
This reflected, in large part, in
creased activity in soft goods lines
at the cOuntry's department stores.
Department Store Business Above
A Year Ago
Nationally and locally, the value
of department store sales has
maintained a fair margin of increase
over the first half of 1852 Through
out the Third Federal Reserve Dis
trict, monthly fluctuations in dollar
sales have been more pronounced
than a year ago. But in every city
for which figures are available
except Wilkes-Barre-the overall
trend has been upward since jan
uary, with some months showing
exceptionally large year-tO-year
increases. Most retail outlets in
Pennsylvania hard-coal region
have experienced a sales lag attri-
butable to depressed conditions in
the anthracite industry, and the
department stores have been no
exception. Merchants in Trenton,
Reading, Lancaster and York,
where industry is much more highly
diversified, report the largest gains
over the first half of 1852.
At Philadelphia department
stores, business. generally was dis
appointing in January. but that was
the only month in which sales fell
below their year-agO level. May
sales were eXceDtiOnallV large al
most everywhere. In the District
as a whole, the adjusted index for
that month was the highest since
the post-KOrean buying waves of
July 1850 and January 1851. In
York and Lancaster, dollar volume
on an adjusted basis broke all
records. Sales declines were the
rule in most metropolitan areas
in early June. But this reaction
was not entirely unexpected and