Evening star., 1952-12-09

duce plutonium for bombs. In
that process a great deal of heat
is generated and rejected to the
Columbia River.
Obviously If it were technically
possible so to modify the plu-
tonium reactor operation that the
heat now wasted were put to use
to generate energy, the by-product
power might be produced at an
attractive cost. tThe present cost
of plutoniun to the Government
might be used as a base, crediting
the whole operation with the full
amount of that value and thus
obtaining electric power at a cost
in line with power produced by
conventional fuels; or, one might
credit the whole plutonium pro-
cess with the ordinary commercial
value of the heat energy used to
produce electric power and thus
reduce the cost of producing plu-
tonium.)
In this way, power as a BY
product of plutonium could af-
ford an exciting prospect for early
development of nuclear energy on
a substantial scale. But it is also
clear that such an operation is
likely to remain exceptional-for
the reason that it would have to
be underwritten by a long term
Government guaranty of dubious
SoundneSS.
The reason for this is that so
far as we can now tell a market
for plutonium means a Govern
ment market for the metal to
make stockpile bombs. When we
plan power plants for commercial
use we must think of them in
terms of a useful life of Is, 80
or even 40 or more years. It is
difficult, therefore, to think of
byproduct nuclear power plants
being developed other than on the
very exceptional basis of long
term Government commitment to
buy the plutonium at a fixed price
or otherwise to underwrite the
project.
Solution Still Far Away.
In the long run, hope for nu-
clear energy as a more or less
permanent economical source of
power must rest on the straight
power reactor and the breeder
ractor. And the optimism of re-
cent months. however justified,
has not grown particularly out of
any spectacular developments in
relation to such reactors.
So that all of this gratifying ex-
perience. actual and in prospect,
still leaves us quite far removed
from a real solution to the prob
lem of producing nuclear energy
economically and of making it
contribute significantly to satisfy
our overall requirements for elec-
trio energy.
The solid achievements of the
last year or so have been modest
as compared with the ultimate
dimensions Of the problem. We
are entitled to be optimistic but
only IN the sense of feeling en-
couraged because a long and diff.
ncult job is at last getting under
way.
The recently completed study
OF energy requirements by the
Presidents Material Policy Com
mission indicated that the electric
requirements of the country will
be nearly quadrupled between 1850
and 1875. The report further pre-
diets that the proportion of these
needs to be supplied from fuel will
substantially increase over 1850.
Whether or not. and to what ex-
tent nuclear energy assumes a
large role in the long-term picture
depends upon the Developments
that occur in the field in the years
immediately ahead. And these
developments, even if highly ia
vorable, are not likely to tell us
that nuclear energy will solve our
power problems of the next Is
years.
The demand for electric power.
and the capacity to meet that
demand, has doubled on the aver
age every decade for the past 40
years. This has been done while
the price of electric service has
been kept level or actually has
been reduced while the cost of
everything else was going uu
sharply.
Thus, when we look at the i'm
menSe energy requirements of the
United States over the next 25
years against a background of
having satisfied increasing re-
quirements also of a large order
OF magnitude in the past decades
while keeping costs firmly in check
notably by increasing efficiency
IN transmission in use of materials
and in utilization of fuel, it be-
comes clear that our Job for the
future is to repeat these achieve
ments at the same time as we try
to press ahead in the whole field
OF energy. including atomic energy
Ihls is not to propose that we
should pay less attention to atomic
energy but only that we shall
|. make a great mistake if we become
so absorbed in it that we overlook
things that can be done to improve
our shorter term needs for low
cost energy.
How to best assure that we sha,
make the most Of our opportunit,
to find out whether nuclear powe,
rs commercially feasible and--i,
we determine that it is-how bes1
to facilitate its rapid development
Ills a different task. The present
program that is being carried on
,iny the Atomic Energy Commis.
sion and the agencies collaborating
with Acc. utilizing such new tool,
as the materials testing reactol
land the experimental breeder re.
lantnr hofh - ,pt;nt. -. 4.