Evening star., 1952-09-15
zoo, 900 Are Smoking
As Science Looks On
Study Will Try to Determine
Its Relation to Lung concer
By 7. R. Henry

The smoking histories" of 200 900 men
are being collected this year.
The object is to determine statisticany
the degree to which smoking is associ-
ated with lung cancer, the most rapidly
increasing type of malignant growth in
the United States. It has been attributed
to the prevalence of cigarette smoking.
This, however. is little more than a
glorifled guess at present. Heavy smokers
often are victims of the malady. Many,
however, are not. It is found in non
smokers. in very moderate smokers. and
in heavy smokers.
Statistics, to have any validity, must
be based on large numbers. This is the
reason for the present drive under aus
pices of the American Cancer Society to
obtain this vast number of smoking his
tories. It is being carried out by volun-
teer workers, each Of whom will compile
the smoking records Of 10 white men.
Then the worker will report each year
, whether these men are alive or dead.
If any of them are dead the cause of
death will be ascertained from the off,
cial records.
Money Saved by Volunteers.
In this way, it is hoped. it viii be pos
sible to determine whether q significantly
larger number of smokers than nom
smokers, or mild smokers than heavy
smokers, have died of cancer OF the
lungs. If such study were carried out
by others except volunteers, according
to the Cancer Society, 1t would cost sew
eral millions.
Numerous studies which have been
carried out up to now. according to the
report Of Drs. E. Cuyler Hammond and
Daniel Horn of the statistical research
section Of the American Cancer Society.
seem to show some relationship between
smoking and lung cancer. But they dis
agree markedly in their measurement Of
the size Of that relationship. The ap-
parent Importance of tobacco varies from
relative insigniflcance to major clinical
interest.
It has been recognized for some time,
they say, that only studies Of very large
numbers can overcome this difficulty.
, 1t Is estimated, they say, that at least
100000 person years Of exposure to risk
would be required to arrive at an answer
on the relationship between smoking and
cancer, even If the study were restricted
to white males between the ages Of SO
and SO years. That is, $4,000 would have
to be followed for eight years, $4,000 for
four years or 100000 for two years II
the study were undertaken by profess
sional interviewers, each interview would
cost about $15.'
Very much the same results can be
reached in one year through the volun-
teer system. they believe.
Checking Started in 1927.
The first studies Of a possible rela-
tionShip between tobacco and cancer
they point out. were undertaken in
Massachusetts, rs years ago. At that time
the interest was In cancer of the mouth.
Lung cancer was such a rarity that it
would not be considered in statistics.
About 10 years later the study was
repeated. Then, for the first time, cancer
OF the lungs and respiratory system be-
gan to appear in sufficient numbers to
be statistically significant. But the rate
has gone up ever since. and very mark
edly in the past few years.
The problem is made more difficult
by the fact that many other factors
than tobacco can be found in the lives of
most lung cancer victims-especially the
breathing of dust. 1t is probable that
the disease was quite common, although
unrecognized, in mines before ventilation
systems were installed.