Evening star., 1952-11-02
PoIIsters Are Predicting
Eisenhower Will Win
Writer Says They Are Done
If They Guess Wrong
By Fronk R. Kent

If They Guess Wrong
By Fronk R. Kent
AS the campaign ends, the profess
sional pollsters and political prophets
present their forecasts and figures with
extreme caution. Obviously, and nat
urally, they are restrained by memory
of their unhappy experience in 1948,
clearly realize that another such will
put them permanently out of business.
AS of last week, polls in all parts Of
the country showed Gen. Eisenhower
ahead in every important State, even
when majority Of the voters classified
as undecided" is given his opponent.
It is true the professional pulse-takers
this time leave out more loopholes.
rope ladders and fire escapes than ever
before. But after allowing for gain
in Stevenson strength in the past month
and after giving him the breaks on the
non-committed voters, if these polls are
worth anything at all, they indicate
an Eisenhower victory. This is remark
able because the combination of big
voting groups which the late Mr.. Roose-
velt put together in 1886 seems more
formidable than ever.
For example. the Negro vote which.
despite presence on the Democratic
ticket Of vice presidential candidate
from Jim Crow State. is more solidly
Democratic than before With Senator
Sparkman as Gov. Stevensons run
ming mate, this does not make sense;
but it is true. 1t is also true that the
Negro vote in 10 pivotal States of the
&c VII hafn
this vote Mr.. Truman could not have
been elected in 1948 and without it
now Gov. Stevenson would not have a
chance.
Second, there is the organized labor
vote. This is not nearly as solidly pro-
Stevenson as the Negro vote, but the
bulk Of it is his. The recent switch Of
John l.. Lewis from the Republicans
to the Democrats makes the labor
leader front complete. The bosses are
all for Stevenson, because he yielded
to pressure and came out for complete
repeal Of the Taft-Hartley law, whereas
Gen. Eisenhower stood his ground. The
ability of these labor bosses to deliver
their rank and file is disputed, but de-
spite their ignominious defeat in 1850.
when they joined in a desperate effort
to put Senator Taft out of public life,
few politicians in either party have the
CUTS to oppose them.
Finally. there are 25 million Federal
jobholders, to whom must be added
several million others who, in one form
or another, regularly receive Federal
money. The Rogers Dunn survey esti-
mates that allowing four votes to every
jobholder, the payroll will account for
at least 10 million votes-almost all
Stevenson. This seems inevitable when
you consider that the Democrats have
been in power for 20 years and the
feeling is strong that Republican ad-
miniStration would make every Federal
employees position insecure. The sum
of all this would apear to give the
Democratic candidates unbeatable ad-
vantages.
Undoubtedly these three groups are
the main dependence Of their party. Its
candidates have no chance Of election
without them and it would seem i'm
possible to defeat them If all three are
held together. Yet this is by no means
the case. For one thing, the 10 million
Federal-jobholde vote. the union-labor
vote and the Negro vote combined con-
stitute nothing like a majority. A very
large majority of voters are not Ne
groes, not Federal jobholders, not union
members and not radicals. liberals.
left-wingers or whatever you choose to
call them. The bulk Of the voters do
not belong to any Of these classes. The
unattached citizens constitute the coun-
try and the Eisenhower strength lies
with them. To win he will have to get
a great many more of them than Gov.
Stevenson, but that is exactly what
these cautious polls show he is going to
get. The reasons for this conviction are
clear
First, there is the fact that Gen.
Ike is the strongest nominee the Repub-
licanS have had in a generation. His
record. his ability, his charm and his
sincerity make him outstanding as a
man and as q candidate. Second, he is
vastly more popular than Gov. Dewey.
whose defeat four years ago could have
been victory by a shift Of amazingly
few votes. Third. he has the open sup
port of many prominent Democrats and
newspapers who supported Mr.. Truman
in 1948. Fourth, there is the admin
istration's gross waste, ineficiency and
corruption which have become glaringly
apparent and have aroused Nationwide
disgust. Certainly the last four years
have weakened both his administration
and Mr.. Truman. In addition. there Is
the war in Korea, the Soviet menace. the
distaste for Mr.. Acheson and an in
creased desire for change. AS candi-
date, Gov. Stevenson has the potent
asset of the old Roosevelt combination.
but he is compelled to run on the Tru-
man record and has had to play second
fiddle to Mr.. Truman in the campaign.
1t is also true that he has no personal
following outside of his own State. Un-
der these conditions the polls should be
more than usually reliable. At any rate,
if they go wrong again. there will be no
more pollsters - and the pollsters