Evening star., 1952-03-23
Coot-toiI cIutchers Will
Name Strong Men
Writer Sees Minor Candidates
Choosing Ticket Heuds
By Fronk R. Kent

tt0btN NJ NGUt
So far as the presidential primaries
scheduled in the next two months are
concerned. interest among the more
astute politicians win be concentrated
upon the popular vote rather than upon
the number Of delegates bagged. This
may seem strange as it is the delegates
that count IN the conventions and in
many States. such as Maryland, 1t is
possible to get majority Of the popu-
lar vote and no delegates at all.
There is. however. very clear and
practical reason for this emphasis on
the popular vote. Both the Democratic
and Republican Parties are anxious to
nominate winner. Neither has SUM-
cient advantage over the other to justify
taking chance. Hence. 1t seems very
unlikely that dark horse" by which
is meant man who has not run in the
primaries, or one who ran In the pri-
maries but failed to obtain q plurality
Of the popular vote. win be nominated
by either. In other words, each party
probably will name the candidate who
seems to have the greatest strength in
the country. There Is no better way Of
determining this than by watching the
popular vote In those primaries where
an opportunity Of measuring the Lead
ing candidates against each other IL
given. One Of these was in New Hamp-
shire: the most recent in Minnesota,
where the Eisenhower unprecedented
'write-in vote" exceeded the most opti-
mistic expectations of his friends. The
real test would have come In New Jer-
sey on April Is. Senator Taft's with
drawal in that State has upset this pros
pect. There are other primaries how
ever. including Wisconsin on April /.
In this and succeeding primaries the
politicians most keenly concerned with
the popular vote are those exceedingly
the ticket with presidential nomi-
nee either for Congress or some State
or local Office. Mostly. these are known
as "coat-tail clutchers" and In the mar
ginal States 1t is vital to them to have
strong man" at the head, one upon
whose coat tails they can ride to vic
tory. On this subject Prof. Malcolm
Moos Of the Johns Hopkins University.
in a recently completed section Of his
forthcoming book, 1.-THE Republican
Party" recalls a number Of interesting
facts.
For example, only once since 1883
has national party won presidential
election without holding majority in
the lower house Of the preceding BIZ
ennium. The single exception was in
1948 when Mr.. Truman nudged back
into the presidency by the slender mar
gin Of 58,584 votes spread among the
key electoral States Of California, Illi-
noiS and Ohio. Thus only once in 81
years has the party in control Of the
House lost the following presidential
election. Therefore, the presumption.
Mr.. Moos thinks. is a sturdy one that
success in q presidential election will
60 to the party that already has won
majority in the midterm congressional
election. Certainly Mr.. Moos is correct
in this, but the question he really asks
is: How many Congressman can
ride into office on the Presidents coat
tails?"
In 1948-though Mr.. Truman won
almost no one rode in on his coat tails
as practically everywhere he ran be-
hind his congressional and State run
ming mates. Mr.. Dewey ran well ahead
in most close States and, though he
himself lost and the House remained
Democratic. undoubtedly he carried
many congressional candidates in.
Aside from 1948-the exceptional year
Mr.. Moos' statistics in the marginal
districts in States outside the South
show that an extraordinary number Of
congressional candidates were helped,
II not elected, by the presidential can
didate's vote-even when the presiden-
tial candidate himself was unsuccessful.
Hence strong man" at the head is a
conceded asset to all others on the
ticket.
It can be accepted that this trenchant
fact has escaped few aspirants for con-
gressional or State Office this year. It
can be further accepted that with
reasonable solidity the influence of this
class will be used in their respective
conventions to further the nomination
of the candidates who most clearly seem
the peoples choice" Most clearly, that
Is, to their self-intereSt.