Evening star., 1952-08-24
The Vests Productive Miqht

AS demonstrated by Hitler's Germany a
nation can be inferior in productive capacity
and yet not hesitate to embark on a career of
aggression against countries whose industrial
might, when combined with that of the United
States, Is Overwhelmingly superior More than
that again as demonstrated by Hitlers Germany
such nation, if it catches the others unprepared
or disunited, can come perilouSly close to
attaining its ends.
With that said, however, the fact remains
that country takes an extremely dangerous
gamble that can end in its destruction-as in the
case of Nazi Germany and it's Axis allies-when
it unleashes a war against powers whose aggre-
gate productivity it cannot even come close to
matching. This is a factor in the world balance
of power that must loom large in the thinking
OF the men of the Kremln Although their ambi-
tion to dominate the globe may be fierce enough
to drive them into risking everything, they must
nevertheless feel certain degree of restraint
or hesitancy when they look at Western economic
strength and measure it against their own.
The present disparity between the two is
very great. Thus, to cite but few key reflectors
of the kind of industrial power that is indspen-
sable to any country intent upon war in this
chronological age, the Soviet Union-under it's
current fve-year plan-is striving to attain the
following goals by 1855: Cd An annual steel
output of about rs million tons; and 60 an
annual electric output of some 1862 billion kilowatt
hours. BY way of contrast, the United States
now is producing steel at an annual rate Of over
lO8 million tons, oil at annual rate of 305
million tons, and electricity at an annual rate
of 432 billion kilowatt hours.
Further, these American productivity figures
will continue to increase substantially in the
years ahead. And the same holds true for most
of free Europe whose steel output, for example,
now totals 72 million tons year, as against
Soviet total of only 46.5 million, a figure which
includes III million tons produced in the satellite
countries. In short, the United States and the
rest of the free Western world are today turning
out this most important of all the basic ingre-
dents OF power at an annual rate of over 18O
million tons, or approximately four times the
current rate behind the Iron Curtain-a disparity
so great that it must surely tend to exercise a
sobering influence in the Kremlin.
Clearly, at least as far as steel is concerned,
the Russians cannot hope to catch up with the
West in the foreseeable future. Only by con-
querng free. Europe can they wipe out their
present disadvantage in this. particular, and
they cannot move to make such a conquest with
out activating the Atlantic alliance and precipi-
tating a third world war. Perhaps they are
willing to take such gamble. Perhaps they will
take it some time within the next five years.
But they cannot take it without inviting upon
themselves the same kind of catastrophe that
Ultimately struck Hitler and the Nazis. They
might win the first great battles, but they could
not count on winning the final victory.
In such circumstances, particularly because
the West is rearming and has far greater produc-
tive potential for protracted struggle, the men
of the Kremlin obviously have reason not to
start war. They may not be deferred, of course
Ambition or desperation may persuade them to
take the plunge, but if they do, the free world
assuming that it holds fast together-will still
have by far the superior power base 1t is not
for nothing after ALL that General Eisenhower
has derided the idea that the Russians are
supermen IA feet tall.