Evening star., 1952-11-02
Sound Advice for V Fons Don't Let Trends STAMPEDE You

might just be that those first re-
turns came from Pasadena. the most
heavily Republican big city in the
United States. Pasadena always
gives the G. O. p. a 2-to-1 lead or
thereabouts: even Dewey carried "a
per cent Of the vote there in 1948.
Or, being an Ike man, don't gloat
over major break in the solid South
If first returns from Georgia show
SIS votes out Of 100 for the Republic
cans. Those votes might possibly be
from Fannin County, which always
goes Republican-just as Grand Isle
County in Republican Vermont al
ways goes Democratic.
Some Porodoxes
Nothing can be harder on the ar
teries than too generalized q notion
about other peoples voting habits.
Keeping some Of these paradoxes in
mind will help when things start
looking good Cor bad) for your can
didate:
Kansas is normally a Republican
State, but its two largest counties
regularly poll heavy Democratic
votes. Wyandotte County, where
Kansas City is located, is usually
Democratic.
Georgia is the most faithful adher.
ent to the Democratic Party. But
its biggest city. Atlanta. is getting
more G. o. P.-ish all the time and
can be depended on to cast about a
quarter OF its vote Republican with.
out establishing an unusual trend.
or Democratic Florida's big cities.
st. Petersburg is likely to 60 Repub-
llcan, and Miami, Jacksonville and
Iampa can be one-third Republican,
without endangering the traditional
Democratic majority.
New York City returns about half
the vote of Tew York State and is
usually about as heavily Democratic
as the upstate is Republican. This
makes New York an exciting political
arena. Much the same thing is true
OF Chicago vis-a-vis Illinois. Detroit
represents about two-fifthS of the
Michigan vote, Los Angeles slightly
less than half of CALIFORNIA; and
metropolitan Boston about half of
Massachusetts,. Metropolitan Balti-
more returns nearly three-fift of
the Maryland vote as rule, although
this may be cut down this time be-
cause OF the relative growth of the
Washington suburbs.
If the announcers can figure out
way this time to tell us whether
the returns are primarily urban or
mainly rural. as well as how they
voted in past elections. it will help
us judge what is going on. Histori-
cally the big cities are more heavily
Democratic than the rural areas.
Only Is OF the LOG biggest cities in
the United States returned Repub-
lican majorities in 1948. The big-city
vote represented about ne-third of
the total in that election. Over the
last 20 years the Republicans have
received only 80 to 40 per cent Of
that vote. So If the announcer tells
us that the vote is both urban and
heavily Republican we can spot a
trend. whereas if 1t is urban and
Democratic the trend may or may
not be significant.
Guideposts
In short. here, are spottable sig
nificant trends:
/. If the big city vote in the North
falls much below SIS per cent Demo-
cratic things are looking bad for
Adlai
2. If the rural vote in the North
falls below SIS per cent Republican,
Ike had better watch out.
3. There is Republican trend
afoot after midevening if the Demo-
Gratis fall much below IS per cent
in the deep South.
On the other hand:
!. An early vote, heavily weighted
to the Republicans in New York
State means little or nothing; 1t can
be offset by city Democratic vote.
2. Some States regularly split their
votes regionally. So. for instance, a
Democratic trend in Tennessee il
significant only If it is based on re-
turns from the eastern part of the
State, which usually favors the
@. o. p. Conversely, Republican
trend means something there only
when it develops in the western part.
8. If the final trend is not pretty
well established by about midnight,
it is likely that the race will be a
close one depending on returns from
the Far West, which may not be
complete until 3 or 4 o'clock Wed.
neSday morning, Eastern time.
OF course. the best advice of all is
this: Don't pay off your election bets
until the loser comedies.