Evening star., 1952-10-30
The Political Mill
Poll Takers Are Puzzled
By New and Silent Vote
Experts Won't Guess at Result,
Know Thot They Don't Know
By Gould Lincoln

HARTFORD. Conn, Oct. 3O-A trip
across the country in search of political
sentiment which forecasts the victor in
the coming presidential race reveals an
astonishingly large number of puzzled
experts" politicians and poll takers.
They qualify their predictions-if they
make any. They comment that the So
called "imponderables" make it difficult.
They do not know what the huge regis
tration and expected vote of perhsnz
100000 more than in 1948 ma por-
tend. They talk of the silent vote
the large number of men and women
who are not saying how they intend to
vote.
The situation is the antithesis of ,1948
when the experts, the pollsters and
most of the politicians of both parties
were agreed that Gov. Dewey. the Re-
publican presidential candidate, would
defeat President Truman overwhelm-
ingly. Roscoe Drummond, chief of the1
Washington bureau of the Christian
Science Monitor, and an expert on polit-
1cal matters in his own right, writing
in his newspaper puckishly comments:
-Four years ago the pollsters and po-
lltical writer's didn't know how it was
NOAAAA1S OuCS DuC WCLc LOG aware IUW
little they knew. This time the experts
don't know how it's coming out and
know they don't know. That's progress"
So-Called Imponderables.
Among the so-called imponderables
is the impact which Gen. Eisenhower's
personality. his great record as a war
hero, is having on the voters. All the
experts know is that the general has
drawn huge crowds nearly everywhere
he has gone. Nor can they assess with
certainty the Democratic revolt in the
South, where the general has been widely
acclaimed. The Korean war, the Red
issue, high prices which have, it is said.
aroused the housewives of the country.
and "the mess in Washington" the de-
sire for change, all have the experts
guessing. Just as they are guessing about
the effect which Gov. Stevenson's-and
President Truman's-constant chant,
You never had it so good" is having on
the electorate. Certainly, the pocketbook
nerve of the voters has been important
in many elections.
A large vote has been claimed in the
past as an advantage to the Democrats.
This has proved true in presidential elec-
ton yearS-aS compared to the "off year"
elections when the vote has been COM
paratively Smaller-in the last five con-
secutive elections. But this year, appar-
emily, many persons are coming out to
vote who never voted before There is,
too, big crop of new voters, first voters,
young people. It is generally agreed that
the huge Federal payroll is an advantage
to the Democratic candidate, and that
the organized labor vote and the Negro
vote have been strongly Democratic in
the presidential elections. They have
their effect on elections and help to swell
the total vote. But there is point in the
total vote which may bring an offset to
these special groups of voters-provided
the vote runs to the huge proportions
now expected
Drive to Get Out the Vote
Not only do the issues of the campaign
cause an intense interest among poten-
tial voters, but there has been an inten-
sive campaign waged to 'get out the
vote" by many organizations, including
Doth labor and business and such organi-
cations as the League of Women Voters.
Registration figures, not yet complete,
give present total of 74,810 900. Four
years ago, only 48,833, 900 voted. This
was fewer than in 1914 This year the
lowest estimate of the coming vote is 55
million to So million. 1t could 60 as high.
it is argued, as SO million. Such a sit.
uation makes prediction all the more
difficult.
Republicans have contended for the
last four years that they lost the election
because potential Republican voters, be-
lieving the election was in the bag. went
hshlng, played golf or just took a holiday.
This Is something the Republicans and
no one else can prove One thing has
been noticeable this year, however. The
Republicans are making no extravagant
claims of coming victory-indeed, they
are making in many States no claims at
all, believing that is one way to keep
their organizations on their toes. The
Democrats have been more free with
estimates Of victory, some of them claim
ing landslide to Stevenson, particularly
in the electoral vote.