Evening star., 1952-03-20
Deadlock in Iron

There Is little solace to be gained from the
noncommittal statement issued jointly by the
Iranian government and a special World Bank
mission which has been attempting to negotiate
q settlement Of the Iranian oil deadlock.
While asserting that "a measure Of agree
ment" had been reached on some points and
expressing the intent Of the Bank to send its
mission back IF 1t appears further progress can
be made" the communique acknowledged that
1t had been impossible to reach common UNDER
standing on several important issues. These
unresolved issues are ones involving acceptance
by the Iranian government of foreign manage
ment personnel and foreign technicians and
the price to be paid for Iranian oil. Without
agreement on them there is little, If any, agree
ment at all. Meanwhile, there is no production
in any important measure Of Iranian oil and no
revenue accruing to the Iranian government.
It has been well demonstrated since the
Iranian fields and the big Abadan refinery were
shut down last year that the Iranian government
is not qualified to operate its valuable properties
Nor is there a ready supply OF foreign personnel,
either in the managerial or technical capacity
who can be recruited for the job unless the
British, already experienced in the area and
familiar with the facilities and working condi-
tions, can be considered part of such personnel
pool. The Bank negotiators are aware Of this
fact Trans Prime Minister MoSsadegh may be
equally aware of it-but he has not agreed to
such employment. ~
Where this stalemated situation will lead is
difficult to foreSee The Iranian new year holi-
day period is about to start and no major politi-
cal-economic decisions are likely in the next few
weeks. A new Nails will take over at the end
Of this span but its initial loyalty at least, is
expected to be more firmly toward the unyielding
position Of MIR. Mossadegh than toward working
compromise.
At this point, the impact Of the shutdown
has not been as severe upon either Iran or the
West as was predicted While revenue from the
oil development was major item in the Iranian
economy the relatively primitive nature and low
level Of that economy have seemingly made 1t
easier rather than mere difficult for the loss
to be dissipated. In q country where government
services have been at minimum at best, their
impairment or complete disappearance make less
impression than in country Of greater modern
development This, Of course, is a Short-time
effect and could have reverse result over q
longer period
As far as the West is concerned, the loss of
Iranian oil has been largely Offset by increased
production elsewhere. Most of the Offset in crude
oil production has been in other areas of the
Middle East itself Most of the increase in refined
products has been in the United States although
considerable percentage Of this has been mar
g1nal and high-cost production that is not desir-
able from a strictly economic point Of view
Reserve stocks also have been drawn down. II
there Is no sharp increase in Western require
ments-peaning no worsening Of the interna-
tional situation-this condition might continue
indefinitely without risk to securitya
A more desirable alternative however, for
all concerned would bes.a resolution. Of the
Iranian problem. The prerequisite Is d more
rational appreciation by the Iranian government
Of the technical aspect of developing their great
natural resource, with proper safeguards to them
of their sovereign rights and their just returns.