Evening star., 1951-01-19
Mr.. Adams, China and Predictions

friend has called The Stars attention to
a prediction made almost so years ago by Henry
Adams the distinguished diplomat and man of
letters. The prediction-as set forth on March
e. 1908, in letter written from his home here
In Washington to Elizabeth Cameron-nay be
of more than passing interest to people who are
disposed to attach Importance to soothsaying
and who take kind Of shuddery delight in
having their worst fears confirmed by something
somebody said in the rather distant past. AS
for Mr.. Adams, here is what he said:
My craftsmanship is still all in China where
the last struggle for power Is to come. China is
bound to go to pieces. and every year is long
step to the bad The only country now on the
spot is Russia, and If Russia organizes China as
an economical power, the little drama Of history
will end in the overthrow Of our clumsy western
civilization We never can compete with Asia.
and Chinese coal and labor, organized by ST.
berian system. In that event allow till 1850 to
run our race out. 1t does not interest me enough
to hang on for 1t another half century
Here certainly is an old forecast that seems
to fit in quite neatly with rather widespread
mood Of the hour. Lest anybody be too depressed
by it, however, The Star hastens to add that
Mr. Adams-a very proper and super civilized
Bostonian-had low opinion both of his own
time and of the future. He was much in love-
instead, with the medieval past and in his latter
days his personality, his general outlook and the
judgments he passed on things to come were
compounded of a mixture of dyspepsia, pessi-
mism, languor of the spirit, mental ennui, and
what the Germans have called "Wetschmerz"-a
sentimental world-weary sense of sorrow and
pain over the ills the woes and the ultimate
fate of men and nations. 1t need hardly be
added that the representations of such an indi-
vidual no matter how distinguished, must be
taken with more than grain of salt
Moreover, as a reassuring commentary on
the reliability of Mr.. Adams prescience in this
Instance, 1t seems pertinent to observe that here
we are in 1851 and our clumsy western civiliza
ton" is still far from running its race out
vis-a-vis China. The latter, despite It's great
potentials and despite being ruled at the moment
by an aggressive Communist regime beholden
to Moscow, has not yet been organized by the
Russians into anything like real economical
power" On the contrary, it is still overWhelm-
ingly agricultural, has only primitive road
and railway system, and is handicapped by the
fact that just about one in every $500 of its
citizens has factory experience, as against about
one in every eight Americans. Quite obviously
decades of effort-and peace-will be required
II this vast and dissension- ridden land is ever
to attain industrial strength of the sort en-
visoned by Henry Adams in his letter to Miss
Cameron in 1908
AS a further commentary MIR. Adams
prescience, it may not be amiss to add that in
that very same letter he described Germany,
which was to become one of the worlds
mightiest nations, as "a wretched little power
.. out of the race 4. busted concern"
Accordingly, there would seem to be every rea-
son not to take too seriously what he said about
China or what other prognosticators have said
along similarly gloomy lines. AS for itself, The
Star is almost tempted to wager collecting time
in the year 2o00) that if and when China be-
comes an important industrial country, its
progress will benefit all of Asia and the world
at large, and its government will not be puppet
Of the Kremln, which may ITSELF between now
and then, undergo a revolution for the better.
In any event, the moral involved here, as