Evening star., 1951-05-01
The Bottle in Korea

AlChough the Ch1neSe communists are at the
gates of Seoul, there is reason to believe that
they have fallen considerably short OF what they
had hoped to achieve when they began their
massive offensive just little more than a week
ago. At that time, according to Lieutenant Gen.
eral James A. Van Fleet, commander of the 9th
Army, they apparently aimed at capturing not
only the vital and strategic" area around the
ancient capital of Korea but also "the line of the
Han to its confluence with the Pukhan River and
thence to the east coast, with the possible objec-
tive date of May /, the politically important
worldwide May Day holiday"
But here it is May Day, and the Chinese
Communists really have no great victory to boast
about. Indeed on military balance, it would
seem that their latest offensive has been some
thing of failure thus far At any rate, as
General Van Fleet has indicated, they have now
completed the first phase Of their drive and
unless they do better in the second-which is
just beginning-they are likely to peter out,
lose all momentum and be forced into another
costly retreat northward, with little or nothing to
show for their efforts. That is to say little or
nothing except very large numbers of dead and
wounded.
AS matter of fact, up to the present
moment, the Chinese Communists have failed
even to approximate what they accomplished in
their winter offensive They have gained rela-
lively little territory. They have been able to
pull no real surprises They have achieved no
break-throughS. Together with the North
Koreans, they have had an estimated total of
100000 men Immediately available for battle.
OF these, according to General Van Fleet, some
100000 have been engaged in the now-ended
first phase of the offensive, and in that phase
our American and Allied United Nations forces,
though heavily outnumbered, have killed or
Aad az CT Nlxy
of all the enemy troops taking part in the action
When measured in relation to the not-too-
important ground they have taken during the
past several days, this casualty rate-compara-
lively much higher than that of our Allied
forceS-suggeSts that the Reds may even now
be wondering why they ever launched their new
offensive. Certainly, it must sober them to see
how well prepared the u. NJ command has been
to cope with their "human-se sea" tactics, how
skillfully that command has held its lines intact
in Shrewd Withdrawals, and how fearsome its
hrepower continues to be. It must sober them,
too, to hear General Van Fleet declare that
the United Nations welcomes the opportunity to
destroy them north Of the Han.
In sum, considering everything, 1t seems rea-
sonable to say that the enemy offensive has gone
rather poorly thus far and that our Allied forces
have scored what looks like a good defensive
victory True enough, if the Communists throw
in a lot of planes and challenge our great air
and sea superiority, the situation can change
drastically overnight. But assuming that there
will be no such developments development
that could extend the war far beyond Korea
there is ample ground for confidence about how
our side is likely to fare as the battle goes on.
In fact, if the present casualty rate continues,
it may even be possible to hope that the aggres-
sor will-be hurt grievously enough to listen
attentively to proposals for an honorable peace.