Evening star., 1951-04-05
NoReal Evidence Seen
That Soviet Will Move
In Europe This Year
By William H. Stonemon
Foreign Correspondent Of The Star and
the Chieoao Daily News

Fosei9n ~oHeSponoent OF me Sfof ana
the chieoso Dolly News
oRAFENWOEHR, Germany
April 5.-As the 1851 fighting sea-
son opens in Western Europe there
is no real evidence that the Red
army expects to move this year.
The only trace of such evidence
is the fact that Red army maneu-
vers in Eastern Germany are get
ting under way this month slightly
ahead of schedule. 4g
Otherwise everything is normal
or even suhnormal with no signs
whatsoever of the build-up that
would probably have to precede
an attack. Is
This lack of evidence, coupled
with the A-bomb and other de-
torrents to Russian aggression,
supports the presumption that the
Russians are not planning an at
tack for this year.
Breathing Spell Probable.
In other words, it now seems
probable that they will grant the
Atlantic treaty powers the breath
ing space they need to build the
defenses Of Western Europe up to
a moderate level.
So far excellent
The fact remains, staring the
Western powers in the face and
keeping their generals awake
nights, that Russian assault on
Western Europe this year is pos
sible.
OF outstanding Importance is
the additional fact that such an
assault could be made under cover
OF the summer and autumn ma
neuvers with big chance of sur
prise.
Maneuver as Armies.
This would be true, at least, if
the Russians struck in September
when the Red army units will be
maneuvering as armies or army
corps in close proximity to the
border between Eastern and West
ern Germany.
It is for this reason that Allied
troops are already in a state of
readiness" in Western Germany
and will continue to be on the alert
for an attack at any time between
now and late October.
Every additional man who can
be sent to Western Germany, be-
tween now and September, and be
made ready to fight at that time,
will be worth his weight in porter
house steak. j..
Soviet Strength Not Alarming.
The facts about the Soviet
forces in Eastern Germany, as of
this moment, are certainly not
alarming in themselves.
/. Red army contingents in
clude about Is infantry and ar
mored divisions and five special
devisions Of artillery and anti
aircraft.
The combat divisions ordinarily
have 10000 men but they are now
only 70 per cent up to strength.
Thus the 80 divisions have a
total strength Of. about 10000
men.
2. Red fighter squadrons IN
Eastern Germany are now almost
entirely equipped with jet planes
but some squadrons of conven-
tional fighters have not been re-
placed. The total fighter strength
Is now about 500 planes.
Stories about the creation of an
Eastern German air force are not
true. s
8. The Red Army in Eastern
Germany was increased by be-
tween 10000 and $4,000 men last
fall when men from the class. of
1926 went home and were replaced
by the 1880 class. The latter men
will be getting their 6rst training
IN maneuverS this summer and
until then will be below the 1925
men in quality.
4. Maneuvers will be held as
usual in three special zones of
Mecklenburg, Saxony and Thurin-
gia, all of which border the West
ern zone of Germany.
Training for Small Units.
They will consist of training for
small units until mid-May, bat
talon and divisional exercises dur
ing the summer, with strong en-
phasis on engineering and artil-
lery problems, and finally grand
maneuverS in late September.
That. according to present cal
culations. will be the dangerous
time, If any.
Movements Of Russian troops in
Eastern Germany will be watched
with extreme care between now
and midsummer for any sign that
strength is increasing or that
maneuvers are getting far ahead
of schedule.
It Is question of so far. so good