Evening star., 1951-09-24
By Sebostion Hoffner

By Sebostion Hoffner
T ONDON.-For all practical purposes,
- Japan today is sovereign power
again, able to play an independent part
in Pacific and Far Eastern affairs, sub
ject only to the limitations imposed by
her alliance with the United States. The
time has come to appreciate the change
in the Far Eastern balance of power
which this return of Japan implies.
The change is tremendous. From
whatever angle it is viewed, the Far
Eastern scene is changed almost beyond
recognition by the return of Japan. The
reactivation of Japan as a factor in
international affairs is second only to
American rearmament in its effects on
the balance of power of Asia and even
of the world.
Japan is one of the few surviving great
powers of the world. With homoge-
neous, literate and highly skilled pop
ulation OF IS million, and with fully de-
veloped modern industries, she is, roughly
speaking, in the same power class with
Great Britain, Russia, Germany and
France, though not with the United
States She is, at least for the next so
years, far superior power to China and
India Qet alone Pakistan and Indo-
nesia), which have a larger area and q
more numerous population, but are, in
comparison with Japan, underdeveloped
countries. The Big Five" fiction which
puts China, but not Japan, among the
great powers who should have a special
say in world affairs, is now past revival.
Ten years ago it was indeed possible
to believe that JapanS power in COM
bination with her geographical position
made her interchangeable and supreme
IN East Asia and the West Pacific This
World War II has shown to be fallacy.
Japans power-this is the clear result
of the 1941-1945 Far Eastern war-is,
even locally inferior to that of America
and no japanese statesman can in future
contemplate policy which would bring
Japan into open conflict with America.
The war has also shown second limita-
tion Of Japanese power, it is not sufi-
cient, even in the most favorable circum-
stances, to subjugate and dominate
China completely. In spite of her tower
ing military superiority over China and
in spite of being for several years left
alone in corner with China, Japan was
never, in the eight years from 1887 to
1945. able to end the China incident"
decisively and finally.
But while nobody inside or outside
Japan should forget these two limita-
tions of Japan's power it would be
equally myopic to forget the positive
proofs of that power which recent his
tory has provided. Within the limits
set by Americas interchangeable mate
rial superiority and the inert resisting
power of the big continental Asian
populations in the depth of their own
territories. Japan's power is indeed
supreme in the Far East. There is espe-
cially no question of China's being able.
with even a remote hope Of success, to
challenge Japan on her home ground or
In those marginal areas where Chinese
and japanese power spheres meet and
overlap, as in Korea, Formosa or South
each Asia. :
There is also no question of RuSSia'S
being a match for Japan in the Far
East. Far Eastern Russia. 1t must not
be forgotten. is a country of little more
than million people, separated from
European Russia and its resources by
thousands of miles. In straight duel
in 1904-5, Russia was decisively defeated
by Japan. In the 30s, when Russian
and japanese interests clashed in Man
churia, Russia realistically chose retreat.
These are more valid indications Of
form" than Russia's Manchurian six
day campaign in August, 1945, against
an already defeated Japan on the point
of unconditional surrender.
It follows from this that Japan's
restoration as a sovereign factor in
international affairs, together with the
American japanese alliance, which linn
it's Japan's power in some aspects but
enormously reinforces it in others, deci-
sively tits the scales of the power bal
ance in the Far East If so-even as
late as last year, in the opening stages
of the Korean war-the Russian Chinese
combination appeared to represent the
preponderant power in Asia, which could
only precariously be held in check by
long distance effort of America, from
now on it is the American-Japanese
combination which will increasinly be
able to call the tune in the Far East
and with which Russia and China will
have to seek an accommodation on the
best terms they can make.
This has an almost immediate bear
ing on the Korean war. Even two
montnS ago, Wnen the aOortlVe haeSonB
negotiations opened, 1t could be said
the balance of power pointed toward
a stalemate somewhere around the 38th
Parallel. With the weight of Japan in
the scales, this is no longer So Japans
interest in Korea not dominated by
either China or Russia is obvious, and
Japan's power to enforce Russian
and Chinese retreat from Korea is
equally obvious. The prediction can be
ventured that if Russia and China con-
tinue the Korean war indefinitely 1t
will eventually be Japan that speaks
the last and decisive word on that
tragic episode.
Whether 1t will then be possible to
keep Korea a genuinely independent