Evening star., 1951-01-11

peans the same Nightmares they
give Americans today.
No one knows positive answers
to these questions, including the
so called Russian experts" but
if you live next door to the Rus
slams in Europe-as have since
the end of the last war-the an
swers 60 like this:
Cd The Soviets are apt to blum
der through an aggressive act into
world war rather than start one
deliberately.
co The greatest war danger
period since 1899 is from April
through September this year.
| CD You must fight in Europe as
long as you can, no matter how
little you have.
Hope for Brief Warning.
It is useless to speculate on
whether the Kremlin is planning a
deliberate all-out attack. This
would be the most closely kept
secret in the most closely guarded
country in the world. The best
intelligence agencies in the world
frankly admit they would not
likely obtain such top secret in
formation. The best they hope
for would be a few days warning
of a possible attack by external
evidence such as troop DISPOSE
tions, buildups and similar move
ments.
On this count they all say there
has been no significant change in
troop dispositions along the Iron
Curtain in the last year or two.
But the Soviets always have had
enough there to overrun Europe.
1t would only need an order and
minor shifts to send them into
action.
The argument that the Soviets
would not attack because they are
getting what they want without
it" does not hold water.
Hitler was getting all he needed
in Europe in 1899 without war. He
had the continent economically in
the palm of his hand. He needed
only to be patient. But he wasn't.
He miscalculated that the West
would not fight.
No More Plums Left.
The danger seems to be that
the Russians will not be patient,
that they will make the same mis-
calculation of the West and that
they will make one more aggres-
sive grab in Europe that will touch
off a war just as Hitler's invasion
of Poland did.
Western Europe is just as 1t
was in 1889. There is no more
give" for aggressors. There are
no more plums left for the taking.
All the countries are sewed up by
pacts, the presence of American
or British troops, or deep moral
commitments.
Above all things. the Soviet
Union would like to have control
of Germany and more specifically
the Ruhr.
Despite is tremendous advan-
tageS in manpower. trained troops
and vast ground strength, the So
Wet Union would have definite
military weaknesses in fighting in
Europe, particularly in an ex-
tended campaign.
Industrial Capacity Low.
There are:
/. Low industrial capacity for
their vast manpower. Soviet steel
production is about one-fifth that
of the United States.
2. Long and vulnerable lines of
communication to Western Eu-
rope.
3. Uncertain satellite loyalty,
particularly if the Soviet should
start losing or show signs of mil
itary weakness.
Unquestionably the Soviet Union
could gain great initial victories
just as Hitler did. Holding their
initial gains would be another
matter. Western military defense
plans are designed to take advan-
tage of Soviet weaknesses.
First there is the atom bomb. A
Soviet attack would be met with
an all out air assault by the United
States and Britain with the atom
bomb.
Would Be Aimed at Industry.
It's aim would be to rip the in
dustrial heart out of the Soviet
Union if possible and further re-
duce it's comparatively small pro-
ducing capacity 1t would have the
further aim of smashing long So
Wet rail lines of communication