Evening star., 1951-03-18
Yugoslovia Smells Trouble and Prepares for 1t
Sure She Can Meet
Showdown if Only
Given Enough Time
By Alex H. SINGLETON

soon. 10 Cne East lies Cne ugl.
possibility of a Russian-backee
invasion. To the West lie hopes
for aid to shore her up.
If and when the Kremlin's glob-
al strategists decide to move West
it's almost certain this strategic
Balkan land would become a prime
target. It lies in the way of Med
Iiterranean domination.
lust when such an aggressive
move might come or the form of it
might take could not be predicted
but there is a growing conviction
in Belgrade. among the people
themselves, that this could be the
crucial year.
The Yugoslavs. historically more
often at war that not, boast they
have moses which can smell
trouble"
They are shifting it now-pre-
pairing for trouble-and not just
the ordinary run of espionage
sabotage. boycotts and border in
Ic.dents that have become almost
Ihumdrum.
The people. generally speaking,
may be divided into two groups:
Those who VOW any invader will
suffer what Hitler suffered, and
those who fear that the Russians
may be far better equipped to
combat the guerrilla warfare in
which the Yugoslav fighter spe-
cializes.
The womenfolk are worried.
They remember Soviet "libera-
ton" AS one woman put it:
When they came as liberators
they were tough against the popu-
lation, especially against women
who suffered from their bad man
ners. What will happen if they
come again, this time as occu-
piers?"
Strategy Back6red
But in general the people are
calm. Possibly this is because
they have become so used to war
that they regard it as the normal
state of affairs. They are apt to
shrug their shoulders at the talk
of war, and mutter merely that
iii it comes, they are ready to
fight.
The explosive factor underlying
Yugoslavia's immediate peril, of
course, is the break between Mar
ishal Tito, the country's tough and
brawny premier, and the Soviet
led cominform states.
Proud of Yugoslavia's resistance
record in World War II. Tito held
out for equal rights" within the
framework of the Communist
partnership and so incurred Rus
sian wrath. The Soviets demand
ed blind obedience-or else. In
ousting Tito from the cominform,
Moscow banked heavily upon an
internal revolt, upon dissention in
Yugoslavia's army.
For once, at least, the Soviet
strategy backfired.
Tito had taken over a divided
country torn by civil strife. It
was split by religious, racial and
economic differences. Tito's Com
munistic philosophy drew only
scattered support.
But. when the break with the
Cominform came, the Yugoslav
family turned against the outsider.
Russia's Intervention in domestic
affairs did what Tito was trying
to do: Unite the country.
1t was not that the people as a
whole-Serbs, Croats, Slovenes,
Macedonians and Montenegreans:
Catholics, Serbian orthodox and
Moslems; conservatives, liberals
and Christians-liked Tito much
better. 1t was a clear-cut case of
liking much less the prospects of
living under high handed Russian
domination.
Halted
It's true that some dissension
developed within the army. That
was nipped quickly by Alexander
Rankovic. Tito's Minister of In
terror and boss of UDBA, the
Icountry's security police.
Despite special inducements, the
peasants-an independent folk in
any land-proved far from en-
thusiastic as Tito pressed his
plans for land reform, co-opera-
tive farms and collectivization to
put agriculture on a mass produc-
ton basis.
Tens Of thousands of workers
were pulled off the farm to fill the
ranks OF the army Tito needs to
guard the country's borders. Thou
sands more were sent into the city
to help build an Industrial ma
chine to balance the country's
top-heavy agricultural economy
There has been little in the way
OF new farm machinery, either
domestic or imported, to offset
the drain on manpower.
On top of this cut in farm pro-
duction potential was piled last
year one of the worst droughts in
Yugoslavia's history, a crop-sear-
ing calamity which cost the coun-
try as much as 40 per cent of its
vital products.
Tito has eased his, collectiviza-
ton program, increased the en-
phasis on imports and production
OF farm machinery, swapped raw
material for food from the West
ern countries and borrowed from
the United States to buy more
If Yugoslavia can get over the
hump-the lean, belt-tightening
months between now and the next
harvest-she probably will be vel
on the way toward feeding her.
self and balancing her economy
There are two "ifs" to this
one big, one small.
The small "if" depends upon
whether Yugoslavia gets good
weather this spring and summer
fna. 70 fYaa 10 taic and l;..o.l--l-