Evening star., 1951-07-16
Outlook in Iran

Early in June, when it began taking over
the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, Premier Mossa-
degh'S government called upon the company's
former" customers to renegotiate their old
contracts to insure that their purchase orders,
as in the past would continue to receive priority
treatment over all others. But the final deadline
for such renegotiation (July 49, has come and
gone without any response from these custom
ers chiefly the countries of Western Europe.
AS result Teheran has announced that the
priority arrangement has ended and that hence
forth Trans petroleum will be sold on a first
come -first-served basis to whoever has the cash
to pay for it and the tankers to take it away.
In connection with the announcement,
Teheran officials have declared that they have
already received bids from number of pros
pective clients, including New York organiza
tion called "Coumexport" AS practical
matter, however, it seems doubtful in the extreme
C'Columexport," incidentally is not listed in
the telephone or business drectories) that there
are enough such clients in the world with
enough shipping at their disposal to absorb
anything more than negligible fraction of the
oil heretofore marketed from Abadan. For the
fact is, wholly apart from Trans inability to
produce at capacity on its own, that there are
precious few tankers available anywhere to take
the place of the British tankers that have been
engaged in this great operation. Accordingly,
If the British tankers are definitely withdrawn
as has been threatened-the Mossadegh govern
ment will find the facilities lacking to transport
the petroleum even If production can be kept
up and there are cash customers ready to buy
This is one of Trans basic weaknesses in its
dangerous controversy with Britain. What it
means is that If the controversy cannot be
settled amicably, if the tanker fleet is diverted
to service elsewhere, Teheran will have no way
of delivering significant quantities of oil to any
body. Conceivably, pipelines could be built to
Russia, but such project would require years OF
effort and meanwhile the country'S chief source
of revenue would dry up in rapid order-a
condition that could lead readily to economic
and political chaos of a sort that would bring
about the downfall Of the Mossadegh govern
ment and pave the way for Communist coup
d'etat by the Kremlin serving Tudeh Party.
Here is a prospect so menacing to the vital
interests of all parties concerned-to the
Iranians, to the British, to the entire free world
that simple sanity demands that the dispute
be brought to speedy end with fair, mutually
satisfactory settlement
Unfortunately, however. as shown by the
weekend rioting nationalstic tempers have
been inflamed to such point in Iran that a
settlement is going to be anything but easy.
As President Truman's personal representative,
W. Averell Hartman has arrived in Teheran in
an eleventh hour attempt to bring the opposing
parties together and he has voiced cautious
optimism. But the success of his mission will
depend on whether or not the Mossadegh govern
ment is prepared to work out a reasonable
compromise in the teeth of violent unreasoning
Iranian opposition to any kind of compromise.
1t will depend, too, on whether or not the British
are ready to make concessions All we can be
sure of at the moment is that unless both sides
yield ground only the men of the Kremlin will
be the gamers