Evening star., 1951-04-25
Government by Machine
Now Declared Possible
Psyche Mathematical Gudeet
Could Deduce Conclusions
By Thomos R. Henry


may loom in the future.
This could be deduced from a report to
the National Academy of Sciences by
DR.. L. L. Thurstone, University of Chi
cago psychologist, on a mathematical
Court justices which apparently underlie
their opinions in close decisions.
It might be possible, Dr. Thurstone
said, to develop the mathematical system
to the point where it would be feasible
to predict accurately the courts action
in specific case-ih which event, by
implication, one might conceive of not
bothering the learned justices at all. A
psyche ho-mathematical machine could ar
rive at the same conclusion in fraction
of the time.
In the same way it would be possible
to predict House or Senate vote, only
somewhat more complicated machine
would be required.
Factors Guide Thinking.
DR.. Thurstone's thesis is that thinking
generally is guided by certain factors
probable attitudes-which differ for in
dividuals but any one of which is shared
by several in any group. He makes no
effort at present to define these factors.
They are only mathematical symbols.
This constitutes the great hurdle to be
crossed before there can be general un-
derstanding of the system. The Chicago
psychologist not yet has gotten around
to verbal definitions.
One factor, for example, might consist
OF an Unborn conservatism combined with
intense party loyalty and dislike of Great
pfifo in fpi,a eiy 6r
labeled Factor A, so far as the mathe-
maticS is concerned.
DR.. ThurStone based his report on an
analysis of lis cases decided by the
Supreme Court between 1943 and 1945
in which there was divided opinion.
He was able to isolate three factors
just mathematical symbols-which ap-
peared to be at work.
Factor A. he found, seemed to be very
strong in deciding the opinions of JUS
tices Black and Douglas and very weak
in the cases of Justices Frankfurter and
Roberts. Factor B was strong in JUS
tices Reed and Stone, weak in Justices
Murphy and Rutledge. Factor C was
strong in Justices Jackson and Frank
furter, weak in Justices Rutledge and
Murphy.
What Lineup Shows.
This lineup shows Immediately that
each factor is something more funda-
mental and probably complicated than
basic liberalism or convervatism, racial
background, or state of the weather.
DR.. ThurStoneS major work for the
past 20 years has been "factorial anal
ysis of human intelligence" based on
the thesis that intelligence is not a
unitary character as assumed in usual
intelligence tests, but a complex of many
things, or factors, which can be sep
arated mathematically and interpreted
with much greater fairness to the
individual. These factors also are not
closely defined. They remain r1athe-
matical symbols. But one might be an
element of success common to violin
players and prize fighters, another es-
Sential to groups as far apart as gold
prospectors and brokers. 1t probably is
impossible to define them with much
precision.
The Supreme Court was simple case
for the mathematician, with its nine
members engaged in somewhat re-
Stricted field. The more numbers in
yolved and the wider the field covered
the greater the complexity until it soon
would overwhelm the resources Of the
human brain.
The machine Congresses and the
machine courts, of course, would not do
away with politics. Voters would elect
Congressman. Presidents would appoint
judges.
But with elections over and appoint
ments made the machines could carry
on and the individuals need have no
further concern.
DR.. Thurstone himself didn't talk
about machine government. He has gone
no further than some extremely COM
plicated calculations on paper, but the
possible implications occurred to other
members of the National Academy, which
includes the most distinguished Of
American scientists.