Evening star., 1950-05-07


by diplomatic double talk. to thC
and rattle its saber. but that it is
now
Their reasons are manifold,
Some say the internal structure of
the U. S. S. r. and its satellites
is so weak that any overt act in
the direction of war might precip-
itate the fall of the Kremlin re-
gime.
| We have heard these stories
ever since Lenin established
bolsheviSm in what was the vast
CZarist empire. Russia had FAM
ines, with millions dying of STAR
vation 1t had civil wars in the
early stages of Communist DOM
ination and suffered military de-
feats at the hands of Poland in
1920, of Finland in 1904 and OF
the NaziS in l94l and 1912 until
we came to her rescue.
| None of these reverses shook the
Kremlin's hold on the country
Not that the Russian people like
their regime. But the Strangle-
hold which more than million
armed men in the secret police
have on the totally disarmed pop
ulation makes any kind of rebel
lion a physical impossibility.
Diplomatic Theories
Other diplomats produce sta
tistics to show that Russia does
not have enough oil, either in pro-
duction or in reserve. to permit
her to start a war. This may vel
be true. But the military points
out that across the Caspian lies
oil-rich Iran and to the southwest
lie Saudi Arabia and Iraq. with
almost inexaustible petroleum re-
serves. Neither Of these countries
is capable of defending itself
against a Soviet onslaught and
could be taken over by a blitz be-
fore the Western nations-even
the United States-could mobilize
any kind of forces to support
| them.
The military listens silently to
the theoretical arguments of the
diplomats. 1t can contradict them
privately, but is expected to re-
main silent in public. 1t was only
recently, after the Russians shot
down a United States Navy Priva-
teer patrol plane that the admin
istration and Congress acceded to
the respectful suggestions Of the
chiefs of staff that more funds
be appropriated for the national
defense.
The top strategists of the West
ern bloc have no illusions about
Europe defending itself, even fol-
a short time, If Russia decides tc
strike within the next two years
In spite of the fact that war ma
terial has begun to reach Europe
under the military aid program
there will be no actual defense
force in that part of the worlc
for a long time.
Two things are handicappine
the European governments. One
is the lack of manpower in coun-
tries receiving MAP equipment
The other is the almost total lack
of unity among the Western Eu-
ropean nations themselves.
The peoples of Continental Eu-
rope hope and pray that the cold
war will not grow into anything
worse. The very idea of shoot
ing war puts them in a panic
Such a thought is unbearable
Nobody believes that the present
total Of Is divisions could possibly
stop even an advance guard of the
Russian ground forces.
Even if these Is divisions were
fully armed with the most up-to-
date war material they are strung
along the extended ribbon of shore
extending from Italy to Norway.
This means that each national
army would stand on its own
strip, incapable of receiving or
giving help to its neighbor. An
effective defense would require
depth, which in turn would require
the mobilization and preparation
of all potential forces including