Evening star., 1950-07-27
Belief Growing Here
Soviet Lacks Ability
To Make Atom Bomb
KremIin's Fear Declared
The One Thing Preventing
New Muior-ScuIe War
By David Laurence

New Mujor-Scole War
By David Laurence
Every day that passes since the
outbreak of the Korean aggres-
sion adds strength to the growing
belief here that the SovietS do not
actually know how to make the
atom bomb or to produce it in
quantity.
This is but another way OF
saying that the one thing that
prevents large-scale war is the
Kremlin's fear of Americas big
number of atom bombs.
If this theory is correct, then
the American people need have
no qualms about the $4,000, ,000.-
600 or more spent for national
defense in the last five years. For
while the appropriations went
more heavily to the Air Force than
to the Navy or the Army, the
B-36's and the bombs they can
carry direct to an enemy country
are an investment in armament
the value of which cannot be
measured just in dollars spent
It may have saved countless lives
What has been disconcerting. OF
course, is that the Pentagon stra-
tegists divided up the money in
such a way as to leave the United
States unprepared to fight in the
Pacific, either with naval aircraft
carriers or with Marines and in
fantry divisions equipped with
tanks. This is known in military
parlance as Calculated risk" but
in this instance it was motivated
to no small extent by what might
be called diplomatic risk"
January Report Recalled.
Thus, on January 6 last, this
correspondent reported:
'eNow the United States declares
that no risks of a military or naval
demonstration are to be taken in
connection with the emergence OF
communism in China. even though
evidence is available that the Com
munists of China and Moscow
are in alliance on world policies.
From a purely strategic point
of view, the new policy means
scuttling the Pacific. 1t means an
invitation to further friction in
the Far East, because the United
States, after extending recogni-
ton to RuSsia's satellite states,
has nevertheless encountered vex-
ing incidents in nearly every one
Of them. -.
when a great power manifests
military weakness, it finds itSel1
subject to insults. The fact that
the United States has revealed it.
self afraid to make any show OF
force in the Far East could be
construed by Russia as meaning
that a similar withdrawal from
the arena in Europe could come
some day"
To what extent, it may be
asked, has the Soviet Union been
influenced by Americas scuttling
of the Pacific and the announce
ment in the summer of 1949 of
the diminished naval forces per-
mitted to remain in commission?
To what extent also did the
Kremlin decide that real damage
could be done in harassing the
United States by fomenting little
wars and causing a strain on the
economy of this country such as
is being threatened today?
Soviet Balks at Major War.
Every day that passes indicates
that, if the Kremlin had intended
to take advantage of the. military
weakness of the United States and
her allies in Europe itself, the Red
armies could readily have over
run all of Germany and France
and Italy by this time. For the
counter-balancing strength has
not been built up and will not be
for years. But the Far East pre-
sented an open invitation because
there was virtually no naval
strength there and no line of sup
ply In operation capable of sus-
tanning an expeditionary force.
The Kremlin knows that
America will not provoke a war.
Up to a few weeks ago, when the
Korean aggression occurred, the
Russian high command didn't
know whether American policy
would be to abandon or defend
South Korea.
Today the major fact available
to Russian strategists Is that the
United States and the U. N. will
stand together and resist any ag-
gression in Europe or Asia which
threatens the territorial integ-
rity Of member nations. This
means that the Soviets now may
assist in reinforcing the satellite
armies stirring up local wars but
will not allow a large-scale war to
happen.
But, meanwhile. America, ap-
prenensive of a large-sca1e war,
is mobilizing slowly but surely for
that contingency. Military force
is at best holding" or delay
ing operation. Concurrently, the
opportunity for a psychological
approach to the Russian people
increases and it would not be
surprising to see in the immedi-
ate future more moves along this
line emanating from Washington,
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