Evening star., 1950-08-08
Is Russio Ready?
By Richard Wilson
Second of a Series.)

A special study Of the Russian
economy by Soviet expert ELS
worth Raymond pictures 1t as
strong competitor of the United
States today in ability to make the
instruments of war. /
Mr.. Raymond's conclusions are
these:
To-day Stain could almost
match our World War II arma-
ment production should the colo
war turn hot.
"At the same fast rate OF Soviet
industrial expansion, by lsoo'
after the next five-year plan. Rus
sia could outproduce Americas
wartime arms output, unless the
United States frightened its own
belt much more than in the second
World War.
"The longer Stain avoids war
the closer his industry will matcn
limited States assembly lines.
(These strengths, however, are
offset by certain basic weaknesses
which will be outlined in later
article)
Mr.. Raymond made his survey
for Look magazine. He is former
chief of the U. S. S. R. economic
section of United States Military
Intelligence (1944-46), research
ANALYST in the American embassy
in Moscow (l938-43, and he has
inst completed nine-month study
of the Soviet economy at the
Hoover Library at Stanford Uni
versity. He is an assistant pro-
fessor of economics at New YORK
University.
Mr.. Raymond's findings are con-
troversial. They will undoubtedly
be questioned by experts who con-
slider themselves as well informed
as he.
The significant factor is that
the United States Government has
deliberately rejected the conclu-
sions which Mr.. Raymond reaches
in favor of the more palatable idea
that we can outproduce Russia
with one hand tied behind the
back.
Mr.. RAYMOND concludes that the
q. S. S. r. is producing twice as
much steel and other basic prod
ucts of heavy industry late in
World War II.
Other comparisons made by
Mr.. Raymond are startling and
foreboding. If he is correct, it
can be wondered now why the
Joint Chiefs of Staff and Defense
Secretary johnson thought they
had so much time to prepare the
United States.
$4,000 Red Tanks Yearly.
According to Mr.. Raymond's
figures. the potential production
of tanks in the u. S. S. r. today
is 10000 annually. This figure
will grow to 10000 by 1855, he
estimated. That compares to the
production miracle" of the United
States in producing $4,000 tanks
In the peak year of World War IL.
Annual tank production rates are
Important because an aggressor
can expect to lose 100 per cent OF
his tanks each year by enemy
action and mechanical failure.
Russia's power to produce air
planes is today at level Of 80,000
which wilisriSe to no 900 by 1855,
according to Mr.. Raymond'S esti-
mates. United States miracle"
production at the peak Of World |
War II was $4,000.
The Soviet ability to produce
artillery justifies the use of the
word colossal. It can produce
now 240,o00 artillery pieces an
nually. compared to the 10000 it
produced at the peak of the war,
and by 1855, according to Mr.. Ray
mond, the Soviet Union will be
able to turn out 100000 artillery
pieces. This compares to United
States World War II peak produc-
tion of 125,000.
Weapons Termed Outdated.
Mr.. Raymond estimates that by
1855 Russia could produce So per
cent of Americas World War II
steel production: los per cent Of
our tank production; 126 per cent
of our airplane production; 288
per cent of our artillery produc-
ton; 1862 per cent of our machine
gun production; 234 per cent Of
our small arms production; Ill
per cent of our production of
bullets.
But these are outdated weapons,
said the experts-a few weeks ago.
The United States will produce
guided missiles, atomic artillery,
recoilless rifles, proximity fuses.
We will annihilate the Russian
mass with our new weapons. This