Madison County Democrat. (London, Ohio) 19??-1958, 1950-12-22
is There
ENOUGH
MANPOWER?
BY Fred o. kiel, Industrial
Economist, Federal Reserve
Bank of Cleveland


Recent military developments
assure a rising tempo in the pro-
duction of military equipment
and the building of stockpiles of
strategic raw materials. In ad-
dition, recruitment for the armed
forces will begin to accelerate.
Both of these developments again
bring to the foreground the pro-
blem of manpower. Is the labor
force large enough to meet the
raised requirements ? If not, can
the number of workers be in
creased, by one means or another,
to augment the supply of needed
personnel?
The totaT civilian labor force
in November amounted to 63.5
million persons, the highest on
record for the month. There were
also about II million men and
women in the armed forces which
brought the total labor supply up
to 65.2 million. Not all of these
people were employed, however,
since about % million individuals
were looking for jobs last month.
This year has already seen a
marked growth in the labor force
and employment, as well as a
sharp decrease in unemployment.
Since January, the labor force
has expanded by more than 2 mil
lion as the result of population
growth in the working-ag brack-
cts and as more people have CIV
en- up their leisure for high pay
ing jobs. At the same time, un-
employment has been cut in half
as more than % million people
returned to work. The number of
employed civilians reached the
unprecedented November total of
61.3 million, or 4.3 million above
last January.
How do these figures compare
with 1914, which was the peak
year for manpower requirements
during the last war? At that time
on an annual average basis, the
total labor force amounted TO
$50 millian persons or only some
100000 higher than last month.
There were 11.3 million indivi-
duals in the armed forces, or SO
million more than at present. En-
ployed civilians, however, num-
bered 54 million, or some Z mil
lion fewer. Unemployment in 1914
averaged $4,000 or about Is mil
lion less than in this November.
The exact dimensions of 1851
manpower requirements are as
yet unknown. We do know, how
ever, that the armed services ex-
pect to have 28 million men and
women in uniform before June
l, or an increase of more than a
million from existing levels. In
all probability this goal represents
minimum expectations: it might
not be unreasonable to assume
that at least 3.5 million people
will be in service by the end oi
the year.
Analysis of the present defense
budget indicates that defense pro-
duction may require about 3 mil
lion additional workers. Of course
if there is a substantial speed-uI
and enlargement of military pro.
curement more civilian employees
will be needed to manufacture
service, and deliver the goods. Or
the basis of the foregoing, th'
armed services plus defense pro
duction may require nearly 5 mil
lion workers by the end of 1851
Where are they to come from?
First, it should be possible II
reduce present levels of unem
ployment by at least a million
persons. Second, popul atiol
growth alone will produce a ne
increase in the labor force o
something over half million
This would still leave deficit o
some 35 million persons. Next
it should be remembered from
World War II experience tina
the labor force is flexible. Ther'
are about As million people aget
IA years and over who are no
presently at work. These ar
mostly housewives, students, ant
retired individuals. If offered tn
proper incentives (patriotism
good pay, and convenient hours)
large numbers of these peopl
could be inducted to go to work
At the height of World War II
the regular labor force was aug
mented by nearly 8 million peopl
who ordinarily would not hav'
worked.
Expansion of the labor force b.
these dimensions, however, i
neither possible nor necessary q
this time. A major limiting factor
for example, is the fact that III
marriage rate since 1945 Ia
been abnormally high and SO ha