Evening star., 1949-04-17
U. 5. Optimism Gains
As Danger Of Conflict
Seems 10 Be Easinq
By John M. Hiehtower
Assoeiotsd Press sfoH Writer

Assoeiofeo Pfsss sfoff Writer
More than at any time during
the past three explosive years. top
American officials are optimistic
this Easter that the West will be
able to avoid a shooting war with
Russia indefinitely.
But their hopes encounter the
equally strong belief that the East
West conflict may continue full
tilt on the propaganda, political
and economic fronts for five years
or even longer.
These estimates stand out as
the ones most generally held here
by State Department and defense
leaders on the future course of
the cold war. They reflect a radi-
cal change in the world situation
during the past year and a parallel
change in the thinking Of many
leaders.
Two great trends in the affairs
of the two worlds-Western and
Communicative produced this
radical change.
Tito Split Recalled.
One is the trend to independent
thought and action behind the
Iron Curtain. This big break for
which Western leaders had long
been hoping suddenly was realized
last summer when Marshal Tito
split with the Kremlin's COMM
form. Although he remains a
staunch Communist and is held in
high suspicion by Western leaders,
he is nevertheless considered by
these leaders to be a valuable
thorn in the side of the Russian
bear.
The other great trend is that of
unif1cation in the West. This
began when American leaders de-
termined they would not permit
Russia's veto in world affairs to-
block needed action and create
conditions of disorder suitable for
the growth of communism.
A swift train of events followed, ;,
marking a new and unprecedented
era in American foreign policy
the Truman Doctrine for Greecs.
and Turkey in 1947, the Marshall
Plan for European Recovery In
1948. and the Atlantic Treaty and
revived lend-lease tstill to be acted
on by Congress) In 1949.
These developments have per-
suaded American leaders Cd that
the Russian bloc Is less solid than
they once thought and CD that
the free nations of the West can
organize their strength for total
security.
Atom Bomb ID Factor.
In this framework, the West
is trying to push rearmament and
economic recovery at the same
time. Rearmament will therefore
be slow. Secretary of State Ache
son and other officials frankly ad-+
NIT 1t will be a few years before
the defense of Western Europe
against possible invasion will be
secure. sae
Meanwhile Europe must draw
It's security from Americas possess
sion Of and readiness to use the
atomic bomb In case Of attack.
Many believe the bomb has proved
Q powerful deterrentsto aggression.
Those are among the principal
elements in the hopeful estimates
q the prospects for peace oficially
held here. But there are others.
In former years. in fact since early
1916, Russia has undertaken or
threatened a series Of adventures
which stirred up trouble. From
the first they caused grave fears
among fully informed officials oyer
the prospects of an eventual armed
showdown with the Soviet Union.
In early 1916 the major issue
was the presence of Soviet troops
In Iran, with Britain and Amer
lea pressuring Russia to get them
cut. Russian pressure was build
ing up on the whole Eastern Med
iterranean area, creating the dam
ger which led In early 1947 to Mr..
Truman's proposal to aid Greece
and Turkey.
Iran Is Watched.
This area remains this spring
one of the worlds potential pow
der kegs. A Soviet move against
Iran sometime in the next few
weeks might hurt Western peace
hopes.
The Communist coup in Hun
gary in 1947 was interpreted to
mean that the Kremlin would not
be satisfied with friendly rulers
in any country but must domi-
nate completely all those it could
reach. Those who felt this was
true saw further evidence when
Communists in Czechoslovakia
took over. the Czech government
early in f948.
The two worst war ScareS, in
official views, came about two
years apart.
The first was in the summer OF