Evening star., 1949-07-30
When We Are 100000, 900

The population of the United States
which has increased by about 100000
since 1940-now totals approximately 15o,-
100000. A century hence, If present trends
continue, the country will be peopled by
at least 3OO,O00,000 in world whose in
habitants will have multiplied, by that
time, to a minimum of 100000 000-or
roughly twice the present figure.
This outlook is at once startling and
revolutionary in its implications. Soclo-
logically, politically, economically, mill
tarily and otherwise, it is certain-if it
materializes, as it is likely to do-to bring
about profoundly far-reaching changes in
the international balance of power and in
the everyday life of the human race. The
gloomy view of it is that it will lead to
mass starvation on global scale, and to
nightmarish strife between the "haves" and
"have-nots," unless the world takes action
without delay to promote an increase in
AGRICULTURAL output and in overall produc-
tivity that will be big enough to meet the
needs of the vastly increased population.
On the other hand, the optimistic view
is that the earth-with the help of science,
including the science of the atom--will be
quite capable of supporting the increase
and even of offering better living standards
everywhere.
As far as the United States is concerned,
such optimism seems to be well-founded.
Indeed, according to study just published
by the Brookings Institution, our national
economy can readily accommodate a
population of 300,0c0,000 ION a plane of
living some eight times as high as that
now prevailing" The Twentieth Century
Fund, another privately-operated nom
profit organization engaged in economic
research, has arrived at much the same
conclusion, holding that Americans, as
their numbers increase and as time goes
on, will have ample opportunity to work
less and earn more in a constantly ex-
panding system under which want can be
abolished altogether and the standards of
our national life raised to dazzling new
heights of material abundance. Decade by
decade, as we multiply by the millions, we
can prosper in way never before seen
in the world, even if we leave aside the
potentialities of the atom.
But the Brookings report, as drawn up
by Harold G. Moulton, president of the
institution is at pains to emphasize that
its optimism is based on several important
assumptions. One of these is that an
enduring peace will be achieved. Another
is that chronological advances will make
possible continuing increase in produc-
tivity per man-hour of work. A third is
that our natural resources will be carefully
conserved and exploited. And fourth is
that wise policies will be pursued by every
segment of our population, to broaden the
distribution of income, promote steady
growth in purchasing power, maintain
monetary and fiscal stability, and keep
alive and vigorous our system of private
enterprise. Given all this, then Americans,
when they are 00,000,0OO strong hundred
years from now, may find themselves living
In a kind of economic millennium.
AS has been pointed out by others, how
ever-notably by DR.. Seymour Harris Of
Harvard-this prospective great increase
in population, plus continuing gains in
productivity, is likely to bring on some
spectacular changes, especially in terms Of
labor and leisure. Thus, 100000 of us in
>1941 turned out volume Of goods that
would have required force of 150,000,000
In 1900, and In another fifty years, only
10000 900 may be needed to produce the
same volume. What this suggests Is the
possibility that we are approaching the