Evening star., 1949-04-03
Tide Hasn't Turned
to Conservative
Camp Yet
BY Hugh Mossinehom

PUBIC support 1OT LQc SONeIA-
ment had at last begun to weaken
and that the Conservatives could
reasonably expect this tendency
to increase during Labor's last two
years of office. A by-election
In November at Edmonton North
London) appeared to confirm
those hopes. The conservatives
vote jumped up by well over 30
per cent in constituency that
was considered a labor stronghold
By-Election a Sign
What, then has happened since
to make people SO certain that
Labor will be returned at the
general election? Nothing posi-
tive or dramatic has occurred to
account for the change OF the
political temperature. No new
piece of legislature Of importance
has been introduced by the gov
eminent. There Is no sign that
there is any public interest in
either House Of Lords reform OF
In the naturalization OF the steel
industry.
The recent by-election at Ham,
mersmith "a West London bor-
ough) Is taken as O proof Of that
Here was q seat. most people
would say, that the Conservatives
must win II they were to have any
chance Of victory at the general
election. Labor was returned by
only a little over $500 in 1e45
and Conservatives have been hop
ing to win every seat with a Labor
majority Of up to 5000. But,
despite Mr.. Churchill's interven-
ton and the help of Lord Wool
tons new party machine, Labor
managed to hold Hammersmith
by nearly 1900 votes.
Churchill's Move Cited
Hammersmith, however, is not a
very good basis on which to build
an analysis of the political situa-
ton. To begin with, Labor's Ham,
mersmith majority in 1945 was
far more formidable than ii
looked. The election three years
ago was fought on q very small
electorate of some $1,000 so that
its majority OF $500 would be
worth about 1000 In any of the
larger constituencies with cleo
torates Of between $4,000 and
10000. Then there are other fac
tors that make 1t difficult to COM
pare the by-election with the gen.
eral election. There were 5000
new voters. and the population of
Hammersmith has been on the
move. Perhaps more important
than anything was that the fight
came at the worst possible time
for the Conservatives. Just as
the by-election was beginning MIR.
Churchill rose In the House of
Commons to make an assault on
the government for the "extrava-
CANT" amount Of money 1t had
spent on its new National Health
Service. Thunderously, he threat
ened to move q vote of censure.
And yet Mr.. Churchill was absent
during the subsequent debate. His
substitute made a mild attack. and
when the time for a division came
the opposition refused. despite the
jeers Of the Labor benches. to
vote. Never, so far as this Par
lament is concerned, have the
Conservatives been so outmaneu-
vered.
Defeat Discussed
It is not surprising that the
Hammersmith result, coming so
soon after this display in the
house, should have caused so much
disquiet among Conservatives. Was
the party on the right lines?
Ought they to get out q brand
new policy and present the cleo
torate with q progressive program
that would be an alternative to
socialism?
When the Conservatives were
defeated in 1945 an Illuminating
cabinet meeting was held at 10
Downing street, presided over by
Mr.. Churchill. Speaker after
speaker gave it as his opinion
that the defeat the party had just
suffered was the best thing that
could have happened. Formidable
problems-insoluble ones, perhaps
lay ahead; Labor would soon
collapse and the Conservatives
would triumphantly return to
power for an indefinite period.
For Q time the party rested
comfortably In this happy de-
lusion. But nothing disastrous
happened. And as time went on
Aothing disastrous seemed likely
to happen. Faced with this d.
lemma, three of the leaders-R. A.
Butler, Harold Macmillan and
Oliver Stanley-decided that the
party must be coaxed into adopt
ing a positive policy.
This search for a new, liberal
policy was halted last year when
the party's annual conference
showed the Conservative rank and
file were In no mood to accept
any more such charters. At that
time Mr.. Butler and his friends
were thinking of getting out a new
statement this summer which
would take the party q step for
ward. That idea has never been
abandoned, but no one would pre-
tend that things have gone ahead
very rapidly.
The next step viii be 10 issue
o statement 10 the Labor Party's
conference In June. This Is like
1y to be drawn UP In fairly gen.
eral terms. precise enough to show
the path along which the party
Is likely to travel. but flexible
enough to give the executive room
to maneuver.
Labor. in fact. is in q strong
position. Although there Is an
overwhelming majority among
the leaders against q snap elec-
x&~~ a. a. ~k{yl i. na~A &t.~ -a,,