Evening star., 1949-07-31
Viroiniu's Primary


For most Virginians, the Democratic
primary which will be held Tuesday is I'M
portant because it is virtually certain to
determine the identity of the States next
Governor. Outside of Virginia, the prl-
mary will be watched more closely as test
of the power of the so-called Byrd ma
chine"
There seems to be rather widely held
misconception as to this latter aspect OF
the election. For while it is true that
Francis Pickens Miller has keyed his cam
paign to "beat-the -Bird-machine" theme,
it is not true that his candidacy will bring
a clear-cut test of the political potency OF
the organization headed by Senator Harry
F. Byrd.
This is due to the fact that the forces
which ordinarily would be lined up behind
the Byrd candidate, State Senator John s.
Battle, are badly split this year.
One splinter group is supporting Remmie
L. Arnold, Petersburg fountain pen manu-
facturer Mr.. Arnold will be an also-ran in
this race. But if he polls somewhere from
ten to twenty thousand votes, as expected,
most of them will be votes that otherwise
contest between the State Senator and
Colonel Miller
A more significant factor, however, and
one much harder to evaluate, Is the cand1-
dacy of Horace H. Edwards. Here is man
who has come up through the ranks OF the
organization, and who has served both as
Mayor of Richmond and as chairman of
the Democratic State Central Committee
BY every political standard, and especially
if the Byrd machine" were as efficient and
ruthless as it is said by some to be, one
would expect to find Mr.. Edwards toiling In
the ranks for the election of the organiZa-
ton candidate. But instead he is doing his
effective best to elect himself, and he is
doing it at the price Of cutting heavily into
the Battle vote. OF course, he will take
some votes away from Colonel Miller, too,
but the bulk of his support is coming from
organization men at the county level, who
are personal friends, from normally pro-
Battle farmers, and from the school teach
ers. Furthermore Mr.. Edwards Is making
impressive headway on the strength of an
appeal that is new under the political sun.
The main plank in his platform is his ad-
vocacy of State sales tax. Most politi-
clans would regard campaign based on
an appeal for sales tax as form of po-
litical suicide. But in this case 1t is an
appeal that is popular with the farmers
because they are being led to think that
the tax will not fall heavily on them and
that it will relieve them of higher real
estate levies for school purposes. 1t is
popular with school teachers and school
officials because the proceeds would be
used for school salaries and construction.
And it is also popular with group in the
State who think sales tax will reach what
they call the "free riders"-those who do
not pay either income or real estate taxes.
Presumably, however, the reaction of town
and city voters will be unfavorable to Mr.
Edwards, and it is this which injects so
much uncertainty into his candidacy But
one thing is clear-if he gets big vote,
as he Is very apt to do, it will be primarily
at the expense of Senator Battle, and thus
indirectly to the benefit Of Colonel Miller
What the outcome of the primary will
be is any ones guess. Most of the States
political leaders think that Senator Battle
has slight lead, with Colonel Miller a
close second. But since they can only
guess at the size of the Edwards vote, the
more candid dopesters say that very
slight error in their calculations, or last
minute voting shift Of as little as per
cent, would spell defeat for the Senator
In any event, it is highly improbable
that the winner, whoever he may be, will
get majority of the total vote. And in
Virginia, since there is no run-off election,
a majority is not necessary, the winner
being thesman receiving the greatest num-
Der Of votes. But If the successful candi-
date should emerge with only from IS to
40 per cent of the votes cast, as seems
quite probable, it is going to be hard to
deduce from that result any truly signifi-
cant evidence as to the potency or other
wise of the Byrd machine