Evening star., 1949-04-21
Ending Blockade Held
Russian Bait for New
Talks on Germany
Subsidizins Trode Into
Red Zone Is Probable q.
Aim Of Soviet Scheme
By David Laurence

fht" W SSNsse ~~"~
" By David Laurence
Any thought that the Russians.
having been impressed by the air.
lift over Berlin. will now obligingly
end their blockade and thereafter
allow things to go back to normal
without q major negotiation will
soon be dispelled.
The Soviets are limiting that
they will lift the blockade but they
have q price. They know the air.
lift is expensive. They know that
America and Britain would like
TO be rid of that expense, but this
Of itself isn't a good reason for the
Russians. from their viewpoint. to
give UP the leverage they may hold
In the situation.
,Wishful thinking in the United
States regards the airlift as hav-
: ing impressed, the Soviets to the
point of abandoning their. block
ade. Already the argument is be-
ing made that it was worth all the
expense just to impress the Rus
slams. This is based on the as
sumption that the Soviets don't
know what large airplane trans
ports can do If a nation Is willing
to use that expensive method OF
carrying coal and other supplies
which normally move by rail at a
fraction of the air cost.
The Soviets have maintained the
blockade for reaSon-to get the
Allies to negotiate different set
tlement of the German issues than
the British and American Govern
ments have been willing to make.
The Russians are evidently willing
now to try another approach to
the negotiations-they will aban-
don the blockade in return for
certain agreements.
@ Currency Not an Issue.
The matter of what currency
shall circulate In the eastern zone
governed by Russia is not and
never was the real issue. The Rus
SLAMS showed their hand last sum-
ner when they tried to get a con-
ference to negotiate an over all
settlement Of German problems.
. AS the Western Allies move to-
ward solidification of their posi-
ton in the three zones which they
command 1t has become ihcreas-
fngly difficult for the Russians to
force a reversal. Also there are
signs that the counter-blockade
is pinching the Russians ir their
zone.
The Soviets are ready to try
negotiating again. The bait Of
fered this time is a lifting of the
blockade which. it will doubtless
be argued by the Russians. can
save America a huge sum of
money. The Russians have always
wanted to take a proportion of
their reparations from Germany
out of current production but they
undoubtedly would accept any
other equivalent that now might
be devised.
The request for certain products
to be. exchanged. possibly with
Russian currency to be used, will
come up in the negotiations. The
Russian viewpoint has been and
doubtless always will be based on
materialistic considerations. 1t
would not be surprising to hear
the Soviets argue that; If the lift-
ing Of the blockade removes an
item of $1,000. 600. 900 year, may
be a portion of that saving could
be devoted to subsidizing trade
into the Russian zone.
War Depends on Atom Bomb.
Some such scheme may be ex-
pected to emerge as the price OF
the lifting of the rail blockade.
The theory that the Russians have
suddenly decided to abandon one
Of their principal instruments OF
harassment without anything to
show for 1t to their own people
is so out of keeping with their
customary diplomacy that 1t
scarcely seems tenable. Besides,
another opportunity for harass-
ment and the imposition Of more
costs appears in the Iran sector.
where trouble seems to be brew
ing already.
As long as the Russians do not
have the atom bomb. they will not
start a war. Hence the Soviet
tactics are to frighten the democ-
racies and keep them spending
huge sums for armament in the
hope that such policy will strain
the economy of the United States
and hasten the oncoming Of eco
nomic depression.
Then the Soviets figure they can
inf1ltrste inside European govern
ments without going to all the
expense of marching their armies
into Western Germany and France.
It lis the maintenance Of Ameri-
can production strength and the
stabilization Of the American eco
nornic system which offer the
principal barrier to the spread
Of communism in the world.
The maneuvering over the Ber-
lin blockade is an isolated part of
an overall strategy, and the Rus
slams will be in no hurry to lift
the blockade If they cannot get
concessions on the trade front.
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