Milford chronicle., 1949-12-30
Business And Financial Outlook For 1850
By w. BABsoN
By ROGER w. BABsoN

1. The total volume of business for 1880 will he
less than that of 1949, due primarily to the unfortu
nate labor conflicts Considering that the innocent
consumer will be the chief sufferer and will be
Obliged to pay the bills it seems too bad that labor
troubles should upset the applicant
Labor Outlook
2 Even with all the threats. there will no fow
wages increases during 1850. On the other hand an
labor negotiations take the minds of both the en-
ployees and the management off their reeplar busi
ness However these negotiations come ont tbev
result in loss from the standpoint Of the country
as whole
s. There will be fewer strikes in 1850 than in
lS4S but there will not be fewer extended negotia
tions which are very expensive in themselves.
4. The Taft-Hartley Law will continue to stand
throughout 1885, although many schemes for de-
touring this law will be devised.
s. The great drive against the big companies will
be for pensions andIOr sick and other benefits These
will probably be helpful to the wageworkers and
may ana IN ironing out the business cycle, but they
will be paid for by consumers
6. 1t is hoped that all parties will begin to real
ize during 1850 that the real road to national prog
ress is through increasing production and greater
efficiency. This is the bright light we see in the
labor situation.
Commodity Prices
z. Movements in commodity prices during 1850
will vary with different groups of industries and of
products but altogether there will be a general
lowering during 1850
8. We, therefore advise going easy on inven-
tories 1850 is time to get out of debt and stav out
of debt. Speculation in commodities should be dis
cOuraged in 1850.
9. We believe that the cost of living index has
turned down for the present. The average for 1850
will be less than for 1949.
10. Practically all retail prices will average less
in 1850 than in 1949, Notwithstanding the excess of
money mentioned under 27-2S and 20 below.
Farm Outlook
II. The total farm income for 1850 sbould no
less than that of 1949, which means lower prices on
the average for wheat, corn, pork poultry eggs and
certain dairy products. Farmers should diversity
more in $780, get out of debt and put their surplus
money into savings, in preparation for the next
crop failure. t@
IL. The supply of certain canned vegetables and
fruits Except ctrus) should be greater during 1850
than at the same time during 1949. The prices of
these products should fall off, barring some weather.
insect or blight catastrophe.
1S. Poultry and dairy products will especially
increase in volume during 1850 with prices averag-
ing less than in 1949.
IA. Farmers will continue to work to hold pres-
ent subsidies. 1t is popular to crticise the vast
Isl
making loans on, but this surplus in storage may be
a great blessing when the next crop failure or war
comes.
Is. The Federal Budget will be increased dur
ing 1850 over that for 1949.
l6. Overall Federal Taxes will not be increased
during 1850 and there may even be some readjust-
ments to encourage venture capital. Moreover some
of the nuisance taxes may be eliminated or reduced
II. The lOng-term capital gains tax of $50 will
remain unchanged.
Is. There will be many increases in local and
state taxes, and reaching for relief by sales
taxes or other forms of raising needed funds
Retail Trade
49, Goods counters will be of better grade
in 1850 than they were in 1949.
90 MarkdOwn sales will continue during 1850 as
consumer spending slackens due to a decline in en-
ployment and other factors
21 The dollar value of all retail sales in 1850
will be moderately downward, and the unit volume
of retail sales will also be less in 1850 than in 1949
%. Less will be spent on new building and equip
ment by stores and factories during 1885,
Foreign Trade
2S Our exports will be down during 1860 and our
imports will be up during 195O-comparing both with
l949. This will partly be accounted for by the de-
valuation of the English Pound and other foreign
currencies.
II "a Foreign credits will continue to be granted
during 1850, but some of these will be direct by
American business firms and investors If our Gov
ernment will get foreign governments to agree that
such investments will be exempt from any new tax
or other legislation by the foreign country in which
the investments made. considerable progress
would be noticeable along foreign trade channels
i 25. American interests will have more competi-
on from foreign producers of raw materials and of
manufactured goods during 1850 than they had dur
ing 1949. This will benefit some American concerns.
but be harmful to Others