Evening star., 1949-03-18
Success of ERP in Scandinavia
Leaves Some Uncertainties
Nations Hope for Revival of Germany and
. Restoration Of Trade With Eost Europe

With East Europe
in that direction, but the prospect
is still too "iffy" to permit Scandi-
navia to take anything for granted
AS for the restoration of trade
with Eastern Europe. that is OF
crucial Importance not only to the
Scandinavians. but to the success
of the Marshall Plan in every par
ticipating. country. Without it
the European Recovery Program
as a whole can at best be only half
effective in a long-term sense
Much hope. therefore, is being
built on indications that economic
pressures are tending to hammer
holes in the Iron Curtain sur
rounding Russia's satellite empire
Thus, although a member of the
Cominform and openly pledged, as
such, to do its best to wreck the
Marshall Plan, Communist-do -domi-
mated Poland is not doing the one
thing that could set back thai
plan in Scandinavia. 1t is moi
Withholding coal from the Danes
Norwegians or SWedes. On the
contrary. it is sending them rela-
lively big shipments, and it is
doing so because it sorely needs
the things they can ship back in
exchange. What is hoped for is
that a similar need will eventually
impel all the satellite countries te
return to the natural and historic
pattern of vigorous two-way trade
between the eastern and western
halves of Europe.
But even if trade with Germany
and Eastern Europe is revived
even if all the other assumptions
of the long-term Scandinavian
programs prove Soundy even il
the day comes when it will nc
longer be necessary to invest large
sums in essentially sterile ano
nonproductive rearmament prof.
ects-in short. even if the Mar
shall Plan turns out to be a very
great success by 1952-3-there
still will be reason to believe thai
considerably more will have to be
done to insure the enduring eco.
nomic vigor, not merely of Scan
dinavia but of the entire CONT
nent.
Quick Solution Unlikely.
According to many thoughtful
Scandinavians. like Einar CarStens
of the Federation Of Danish In
dustries, it is unlikely that Eu.
ropes basic problems can be solved
in a few years. In other words
despite its supremely significant
and indispensable role at this
point in history, the Marshall Plan
cannot be expected to work magic
that will last forever. AS seen
by Mr.. Carstens, for example. the
overcrowded continent, if it is to
be economically and politically
stable a generation from now
must not merely make the most
OF our ECA aid and move closer to
union, but must also be steadied
by one or all of such developments
as the following:
"a A large scale emigration OF
Europeans to places like Canada
Australia, South America and
Africa: t2) a realization Of the
United Nations dream Of genuine
global cooperation. and with 1t
a breaking down of trade bar
riers: or 80 an amalgamation
of Africas backward colonial
areas for a great and unprece-
dented effort to develop their i'm
mense resources in line with
point four of President Truman's
bold new program. In the eyes
of many Scandinavians that pro-
gram-carried out with our tech
nical advice and with the help
of private American capital in
vestments - could conceivably.
over a period of years. be Eu-
ropes economic salvation in a
truly long-term sense.
OF course-and here is the
biggest "if" of all-if no progress
is made in the next few years
toward a real peace settlement, II
there is an increasing drift toward
a shooting war instead, the
major objectives Of the Marshall
Plan and of such other longer
range projects as the develop
ment of backward areas will be-
come largely academic.
At the moment, however. the
Scandinavian nations are hoping
for the best. With continued ef-
fectfve use of our ECA aid, and
given some improvement in the
international situation, they are
that they and the rest
of Western Europe will be able
to remain free and become eco
strong again. Every
thing considered, the confidence
does not seem unreasonable.