Evening star., 1949-11-27
By Mortin S. Hayden
N.x,b Amerieon Newspopsr Alliones

L,
Here in the Capital it is being
called "the great coffee myth
and, to date. it has taken about
500 100000 from the pockets OF
the Nations gullible housewives.
Domestic food experts OF the
Commerce Department add that
1t will take lot more, unless Mrs.
America quits worrying about,
and boarding coffee. Il
Stripped Of panic and hokum'
the prime coffee facts are as 1ols
lows: h
In the first nine months OF
1e4s. a record flow of 2,100, ,000. 900
pounds of coffee came into the
Nations ports.
2. This total is 100000 pounds
greater than the 1948 import for
the same period, and 194s was
a record coffee year.
3, There is nothing to indicate
any pending drop In the coffee
supply for Americas breakfast
table.
Yet, despite all this. grocery
store coffee prices, jet propelled
by 1.-THE great myth" have jumped
from q 51-cent average at the
years beginning to rs cents last
week.
TT may 60 still higher, If buy
ers continue to store it in their
basement" predicts George Du-
dick Of the Commerce Depart
ment's Food Division. If, on the
other hand. housewives would lay
off buying for a month, or even
a week, the price would 60 down
again."
Back Of the myth" is the story
of q Brazilian drought that was
non-existent, scare" article IN
a New York financial paper. fren-
zied activity by commodity mar
ket dealers in coffee futures"
and the instructive housewife ten
dency to buy and buy If anyone
whispers shortage.
How It All Began.
It all began when summer suns
were unbroken by rain in San
Paulo, biggest coffee-producing
province in coffee e-important Bra
zil. Publicity men of the Rio de
Janeiro Coffee Growers Associa-
ton began to turn out horrendous
news bulletins predicting that--if
the drought continued-half Of
Brazil's coffee crop would burn in
the fields.
Professional buyers for Ameri-
can roasters reacted only mildly.
wholesale bids for Brazilian coffee
went up from April's 26.1 cents
to 50 cents in Early October.
Then q New York financial
paper bit hard on the Brazilian
propaganda bait. Without wait
ing for the all-important autumn
rainy season. 1t reported the
drought as an accomplished fact.
During the very October days
when the Sac Paulo rains began
to fall, market Spectators In cof-
fee futures began to buy on the
theory that o smart man would
want lots Of coffee when coffee
came into short supply.
Another newspaper saw coffee
futures jumping toward q Novem-
Der high Of 50 cents. A reporter
interviewed brokers, heard Of the
Brazilian devastation, translated
commodity prices into grocery
store results, and came up with al
prediction: Coffee at 81 aI
pound"
Rain-and 1t WAS really pouring
by then In Sac Pauio-could not
drown the panic. Even the Com
merce Departments press section
bit. On November 81, q conscien-
tious public relations official read
all the adverse portions (while
overlooking the optimistic parts)
IN an Office of international Trade,
coffee survey and solemnly re-.
ported: "A downward trend in
Brazilian coffee production"
Grocers Know What Happened.
Grocery owners know what hap
pened. Mrs. America began to
hedge against dollar-a-pound cof-
fee. The rule Of supply VS.. de-
mand went into operation. Penny
by penny, the retail price climbed
from the 52-cent average of Janu-
ary-t through September to the 75-
cent level Of Thanksgiving eve.
"The sharp rise" says Mr.. Du-
dick, had nothing to do with
coffee stocks on hand. They were
more than ample. It reflected
worried sentiment over the fu-
ture."
And what vii the future bring?
The Commerce Department has
predicted there will be 28,s19, 900
bags Of coffee available for world
export within the next year. The