Evening star., 1949-12-31
We Can Win 1t Without Shot!

Arnold IOynDee, Cae CelepIdteu oAAIloiA
| historian, whose profound knowledge OF
the past lends special force to his opinions
| on the future, believes that "a shooting
war is not inevitable within the next
| fifty years." Instead, he feels reasonably
sure that the world, though 1t Will not
enjoy a peace really worthy OF the name,
will continue to carry on pretty much as
1t is doing right now, from decade to
decade on<up until at least 1000 AID.
In other words, with a kind of bleak
optimism, Professor Toynbee predicts that
the cold war is likely to go on raging
for a half century more, with Russia and
the United States-the prime antagonists
constantly maneuvering against each other
in q titanic power contest in which both
will be at pains to avoid an actual test
of arms. In this contest. of course, the
Kremlin, besides going all-out to develop
the Soviet Unions great economic poten-
tial will make an unceasing effort to keep
its present satellites enchained and to
extend its dominance beyond them. BY
the same token, our own country, together
with the free worlds like-minded nations
will strive not merely to- check 1t, but to
roll 1t back from where 1t now stands.
As Professor Toynbee sees the situation,
the West has already done so well in con
tanning" European communism that the
main theater of the cold war will hence
forth be in Asia. Others active in this nom
shooting struggle are inclined to share
his view though some estimate-perhaps
with too much wishfulness-that decent
settlement can be reached in considerably
less than fifty years, with the free world
triumphant In predicting such an out
come, however, the optimists presuppose
that the United States and its friends
abroad will carry through with several all
important essentials, without which 1t
would be foolish to bank on the hope that
the Soviet Empire eventually will die OF
its own inherent weakness, which Is the
fact that it is built upon volcanic founda-
tions made up of vast segments OF re-
pressed and terrorized humanity yearning
to be liberated.
Briefly summarized, the chief essentials
for an ultimate Western victory IN the
cold war are ID That free Europe remain
free, prosper economically and gain steadily
in defensive strength; (2) that the economy
our armed power be maintained; CD that
the West as a whole stay firmly united IN
such enterprises as the Atlantic Pact, our
Military Assistance Program and whatever
form of joint economic effort supplants
the Marshall Plan; "a that the demo-
cratic world conduct the strongest possible
psychological and moral offensive to reach
the minds of the peoples caught behind
the Iron Curtain; and (5) that we and all
our friends, despite the costs and tensions
and wearying strains involved in this pro-
tracted struggle, refuse to be worn down
and divided by the unflagging Soviet drive
to wear down and divide us.
Stated another way, If the United States
and its overseas allies display the staying
power that the age calls for, If they do
not falter, vacillate or do too little too late,
then the Kremlin will find itself up against
a coalition of free men and free nations
too powerful either to crack or dominate.
In such circumstances, unable to get its
iron fists on the steel, oil, skilled man
power and other tremendous physical and
human resources now located in the nom
Soviet world, it will be likely to see new
to pull its satellites away from it. Indeed,
given events of this sort, it will be under
intense and perhaps irresistible pressure
to reverse itself completely and start CO.
operating for genuinely good peace.
All this can happen within the next
fifty years, or even within the next twenty
five or fifteen. But its happening will
depend on whether or not the free nations
do the things that need to be done now
and in the coming decade. II we do do
them-and the If" is crucial one-then
we will have good reason to look forward
to winning the cold war without firing
shot. Contrariwise If we leave the initia-
tive to the Kremlin, we will be risking
the loss of everything in world explosion
that can occur much sooner than men
like Professor Toynbee think.
Making Both Ends Meet