Evening star., 1949-07-10
Ruling Due
Limiting
Wheat Crop
Decision May Affect
Nations Economy
and Politics
By Ovid A. Mortin

have far-reachlng economic ana
political effects for the Nation as
we'll as farmers.
The decision involves this ques-
ton: Should the Government
invoke rigid marketing quotas on
the 1850 wheat crop?"
Mr.. Brannan may give his
answer next Tuesday or Wednes-
day. The time is short because
farmers in the Southwest will start
planting wheat for 1850 harvest
late in August.
Two years ago this country was
cutting down on its own use OF
wheat to keep down starvation
abroad. This war-born shortage
has been replaced by postwar
surplus
The decision Mr.. Brannan> must
make is whether the surplus is
large enough to warrant use OF
Government measures to cut next
years production 20 to Is per cent.
Will Influence Prices
His answer will have great in
f1uence over next years wheat
prices, and hence influence over
income of wheat farmers and those
in business who depend upon them.
It could bring a drop in wheat
prices and hence recession in the
broad wheat-producing area OF the
Southern, Central and Northern
Great Plains.
Furthermore, his decision could
become a big issue in next years
congressional elections-elections
which already promise bitter
battle for control of the next
Congress.
Under farm laws, the Secretary
is directed to proclaim a national
marketing quota for wheat when
estimated supplies exceed domestic
consumption. plus exports, plus a
reasonable reserve. The last Off
cial estimate on this years crop
indicated supplies will exceed such
level.
A new official estimate will be
issued tomorrow. Unless it shows
sharp drop from the previous
forecast, a decision for quotas
would appear likely.
Calls for Referendum
But uuotas-devices used to cur
tain production-would have to be
approved by at least two-thirds OF
the farmers voting in referen-
dunn. If Mr.. Brannan decides for
quotas, the matter probably would
be submitted to a Nationwide
grower referendum August 13.
Hundreds of millions of dollars
in wheat income would hinge on
the outcome of such a vote.
That's because the Government
program> for supporting farm
prices Is tied to controls. Under
the law, If growers reject quotas.
the level at which the Government
would support wheat prices would
be reduced sharply. Dollar wheat
instead of the present farm aver
age of about $1.90 bushel could
easily result.
On the basis Of a billion -bushel
crop, that would mean a difference
of around 5000 900 900 to growers.
! The price support level would
be at least 80 per cent of parity If
farmers approved quotas. But it
would be so per cent of parity if
they disapproved. parity is a
standard for measuring farm
prices, designed to be equally
fair to farmers and consumers)
! Without the support program
wheat prices would be very much
lower than they are right now.
The same is likely to be the case
next year.
Faced as it is with rumblings
of economic difficulties ahead, the
Truman administration is about
as anxious as farmers are to see
farm prices maintained. Secre-
tary Brannan's major theme in
recent months has been this: "We
must prevent a break in farm
prices lest a farm-fed depression
lead the Nation into new depres-
SION"
Political Angles
Mr.. Brannan's decision on
wheat controls is not so easy
as it may seem. Involved are many
political angles. There also is the
question of whether the necessary
two-thirds votes could be secured
for quotas.
In proposing quotas, the Secre-
tary would run the risk of a
referendum in an election year
in which the administration hopes
to wean Midwestern farmers per-
manently from the Republican
Party.
On paper it might seem strange
to assume that farmers would
vote down quotas. particularly
when so much was at stake in the
way of prices.
But many farmers are consti-
tutionally opposed to Government
controls. Such major farm or
ganizations as the American Farm
Bureau Federation and the Ma
| ton Grange have been warning
farmers. of the possibility Of ex-
cessive controls. Both, however.
do favor use of quotas to keep
surpluses from becoming burden
some.
Depends on Conditions
Experience has shown that
many farmers willingness to &C
cept controls is closely related to
their economic condition at the
time such controls are proposed.
The worse off they are financially
the more inclined they are to take
Government measures. But a
referendum held at this time
would poll farmers with l-filled
Jeans.
There's another important