Evening star., 1949-09-30
UnIooked-for Climax
Seen Likely in Series
OF New wSovietMoves
Reds Have World Guessing,
Not Merely ON A-Bomb
But on Policy With Tito
By David Laurence


But on Policy With Tito
By David Laurence
Russia has the world guessing
now not merely on the A-bomb
but on what she intends to do
about Tito in Yugoslavia.
Plainly a series of significant
moves are in process. First. Tito
defies the Kremlin. Next, the
Western allies give Tito loan.
Then Russia explodes an A-bomb,
which news the United States
promptly announces.
Now the Russians formally
scrap their treaty of alliance with
Yugoslavia.
The next step, which in older
times would be inevitable, is a
military attack on Yugoslavia.
Must Regain Prestige.
Russia must in some way re-
gain the prestige she has lost by
allowing Tito to go unpunished
for his defiance. Can she do this
by propaganda and by speech
making and denunciation of
treaties? Or will she feel it neces-
sary to use military coercion, too?
A couple weeks ago Tito might
not have been easily intimidated.
For the Western nations might
have come to his rescue or at
least threatened to intervene if
the territorial integrity of a mem
ber of the United Nations were in
vaded. Now, however, with the
knowledge that Russia has ex-
ploded an A-bomb, will the same
policy be pursued? It is doubtful.
Whether or not Russia has A
bombs in sufficient number to do
her any good in local war with
Yugoslavia, the big fact remains
that what happens inside Tito's
country might give concern to the
other nations of Europe and thus
bring an unlooked-for climax.
1t may be that the threat of
the use of the A-bomb is part of
the Russian propaganda strategy
and that no military action is
really intended at this time. If.
on the other hand, Russia were
to select this autumn as the time
to slap Tito down and occupy his
country, would the Western ma
tions intervene with military force
and become involved in a war or
would they regard it as just an
Isolated affair behind the Iron
Curtain between Russia and her
satellite states?
The answers to these questions
are related to the unfortunate
fact that the Western allies do
not have any appreciable number
of divisions in being as yet. Russia
could sweep Yugoslavia and en-
counter hardly any resistance.
The Western nations could not
bring to Europe quickly a suf-
ficient number of divisions to
deter Russia. The whole European
aid program contemplates the de-
ploying of a substantial number
OF divisions in the next few years
not Immediately.
Face to Face With Crisis.
The Soviet regime is face to
face, however, with a crisis that
cannot very we'll be avoided with
out revealing serious weakness.
In Bulgaria. Hungary. Poland,
Czechoslovakia and Romania, the
Communist domination would be
gradually reduced to the vanish
ing point if Tito gained the upper
hand or could count on the moral
and military support Of the West.
ern democracies.
Big events may be in the offing.
The chances of a full-scale war
are negligible but the measures
that Russia uses to regain control
of Yugoslavia could be the turn
ing point in the cold war.
The general feeling here is that
Russia will try infiltration tactics
and will stir up a revolution inside
Yugoslavia and thus operate
through the guerrilla system
rather than through a direct at
tack. With Yugoslavian rebels
being supported by the supply
lines of the Russian army, quite a
debate might ensue inside the
United Nations, like that which
developed in connection with the
Greek situation. Russia would
disclaim any part in the internal
revolution and the Western allies
would have the same problem on
their hands they have had in
other Balkan countries.
VIII the Western allies now
give the Tito government military
help and supplies? Will Yugo-
slavia become another Spain and
furnish a testing ground for an
other world war? To ask the
questions is to indicate the nature
OF the trouble clouds that hang
oVer EIIrore fndov