Evening star., 1949-05-11
Berlin Blockade End
Called Luckiest Thing
Happening 10 U. 5.
Shift in Russion Policy
Eases Feurs of War
At Any Moment
By David Laurence

IOSSS CQtS W Vo
At Any Moment
By David Laurence
Lifting Of the blockade In Ber-
lin is about the luckiest thing that
could have happened to America.
For months now the argument
has been hammered home that
Russia Is intent on war and might
attack at any moment. National
policy has been predicated on that
premise. Distrust reached the
point where nothing said by one
or the other Of the major powers
Russia or the United States
was believed in the other country
Whatever may have motivated
Russia to change her policy over
the blockade, the fact remains
that such a change has been made
What is even more important for
historians to note is that Russia
never seriously intended her block
ade as a precursor Of war but only
as a tactic of harassment. This
was indicated nearly a year ago
in the formal exchanges between
Moscow and the Allied Powers.
Careful examination of the
white paper" issued last autumn
reveals that the blockade could
have been lifted then and an i'm
mense amount Of time and money
saved If diplomacy had been more
skillful and resourceful.
Negotiations Stymied.
Some day the true story will be
known. perhaps. as to why the
negotiations last year. that were
stymied by technical discussions
about currency in Berlin. did not
result in a lifting Of the blockade.
But it Is known that on the Allied
side there was a belief that the
subject of RusSian-American rela-
tions might better be exposed to
debate in the United Nations As
sembly. Likewise. there was pres
sure to get the Atlantic Pact into
form.
It is being assumed in many
quarters that the Russians have
been persuaded to lift the block
ade merely because the airlift was
successful operation for the AL
lies and that something of a VIC
tory has been achieved by the lat
ter. This is a narrow view of world
politics. The reason Russia gave
up the blockade was that she saw
the advantage of an entirely diff
ferent kind Of maneuver. She
decided the time was ripe to at
tempt to win Germany by infiltra-
ton. Having failed to drive the
Allies out of Germany by nuisance
tactics, the Soviets switched to
another maneuver altogether.
They now will try to get Allied
armed forces out Of Germany by
appearing to be the friends of
the German people-by offering to
withdraw all Red troops If the
other nations do likewise.
The broad view of Russian post
war policy is sometimes ignored
because attention is sharply To-
cused on specific issues or local
tiles. The Soviet policy seeks in
the main to conquer by theology
and by helping to produce inter-
nal economic chaos in those coun-
tries which still have a system of
risk capitalism. The MARKHAM
philosophy is so deeply believed in
by the Russians that they would
be foolish to carry on q war If
there were a chance Of achieving
their objectives without q war.
Tension Will Be Relaxed.
Until and unless the Russians
begin making the atom bomb
estimated to be in 1952-it may
be assumed that the tension pre-
ceding a possible war will be re-
laxed. When the American peo-
pie finally are convinced that
Russia is making atom bombs.
there will be a tremendous change
in public sentiment. There will
be those who will want to fight
a preventive war. There will be
those who say that. unless Russia
agrees to atomic control imme-
diately, other nations will be JUS
titled in starting a war.
But also there will be others
who will express the view that
the mere fact that both sides can
destroy each others cities should
lead to q different concept Of
what diplomacy must do to avert
q war.
The change in Russian policy
now indicated by the lifting Of the
blockade does not mean that other
sources of harassment will be
neglected. There are Iran and
China and Korea and Japan, in
all of which places friction can
develop with the United States
and Britain on the one side and
the Communists on the other.
But the next three or four years
will afford the governments Of the
world a real chance to construct
a basis for peace. 1t is an op-
portunity that ought not to be
neglected by an Indifferent world
satisfied that, for the time being
at least, there is no danger Of an
immediate war.
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