Evening star., 1949-01-02
Cotton Farmers Face
Choice Of Selling or
Holding Big Crop
By the Assoeioted Press

| by me ASSociofeo Fress
NEW ORLEANS, Jan. 1.-Cotton
farmers planted a billion dollar crop
during 1948, but at years end they
pondered whether to hold it for
higher prices or sell at current lev
els.
1t will be up to the farmer to de-
termine how much of the estimated
1887, 900 bales will 60 into trade
channels.
He has two choices. He can sell it
at present market prices or enter it
in the Government loan program
and hope for better prices later.
If the cotton Is sold now 1t would
bring an average of slightly more
than 80 cents a pound. The Gov
ernment is lending an average Of
30.74 cents pound for middling
grade, 15I16-inch staple length, the
acreage grade.
Nearly 100000 bales already are
in Government hands and trade
guesses are that as much as 5000, 900
bales may be entered in the loan
eventually.
Spot Cotton Affected.
The increase in loan cotton was
reflected in the sale of spot cotton.
The New Orleans exchange reported
that spot sales since August /
totaled 3,971,6 ,675 bales. This COM
pared with 1923, ,544 bales for the
August st-December period last year.
Had the cotton been available last
spring it would have brought one of
the highest prices in Is years. But
as the months passed values dropped
and near the end of the year future
contracts on the New Orleans Ex-
change varied between 1902 cents a
pound to 32.l3 cents.
Trading was extremely active on
the two principals exchanges at New
York and New Orleans during the
greater part of the year but tapered
off near the end.
The principal buying influences
in the futures markets last spring
were:
A strong demand for actual or spot
cotton.
Expectations of large exports to
countries covered by the Marshall
Plan.
Heavy sales of all types of cotton
goods.
The decline started early in Au-
gust when the United States De-
partment Of Agriculture predicted
q bumper crop.
The onicial prediction was borne
out by the final report Of the year
issued December 9: This placed the
estimated crop at 1887, 900 bales
Of 500 pounds each.
Sixth Largest on Record.
The estimated crop, if realized,
would be the sixth largest in his
tory. But the indicated yield per
acre of 3l11a pounds was new
record and the first time it had ever
gone above 300 pounds. The pre-
vious record of 1883 pounds was set
in 1914.
The peak price on the New Or
leans Exchange was 1897 cents a
pound, reached by the May, 194s,
contract On April 70. This led to
predictions that Accent cotton was
in the ofdng, but the reaction set
in and prices slid down to a low Of
284S cents a pound on the October.
194s. contract, or q drop Of s724
bale.
Late in the year the futures mar
ket recovered on expectations of a
tight spot cotton situation due to
increased loan holdings and a bet
ter foreign outlook.
Increased exports also had a
favorable affect. Figures of the New
Orleans Cotton Exchange showed
THAT total of 851 $50 bales had been
shipped abroad since the cotton sea-
son started August !.
The average price of middling
15/16-inch at 10 Southern spot mar
kets declined $1905 to 3216 cents a
pound compared with 35.s7 last De.
cember.
Here are some comparative prices
In futures for last year and this: