Evening star., 1949-09-01
Nobody Here Expects
War Despite Quarrel
Between Stain, Tito
Feeling Of Uneoncern Due
To Conviction Thot Soviet
Would Not Dure to Act
By David LaaCrence

Ten years ago this week the
world experienced a sudden out
break of war. Today the same
type of quarrel between a darge
and small country could be mag
nifled and become a war between
Russia and Yugoslavia. and con-
ceivably other nations of Europe
could be drawn in.
Yet nobody here expects a war.
The surface indications may point
to threats of military force by
Russia but government officials in
the Western democracies do not
reveal the slightest anxiety as to
the consequences of the Tito
Stain rift.
Perhaps the main reason for
this feeling of unconcern is the
deep conviction that the Soviet
Union does not really dare to start
a war against Yugoslavia and
that whatever military concentra-
ton is going on along the Yugo-
slav borders, where the Red army
is concentrating, results from
calculated publicity move rather
than an intent to invade.
Kremlin Never Explains.
The Russian policies, on the
other hand, are never explained
in advance and the inscrutable
Kremlin may be preparing a sud-
den move to rid itself of thorn
in Belgrade. 1t certainly would
appear that the prestige of the
Soviet Union is at stake in the
Balkans if it permits Tito's de-
fiance to go unpunished. In a
totalitarian area there are no in
surrections or insubordinations
without reprisalS.
If Russia does not do something
to undermine or overthrow Tito,
the prestige of the Communists
throughout Europe also will suffer.
The fear of the Red army will
diminish. 1t will be assumed that
Russia is too weak to control
her satellite states from either
military or an theological stand
point.
There could be involved in the
Russian maneuverS an attempt to
put Tito in a weak position inside
his own country. Thus. if the
western democracies which have
been warming up to the Yugoslav
dictator should take up his cause
before the United Nations and if
the proposed loan to Tito's gov
ernment by the world bank should
60 through, it will be hailed inside
the Communistic areas as a sign
that Tito has joined forces with
the democracies and abandoned
his Communist philosophy.
The truth, of course, is that
Tito is still totalitatian and still
a Communist but merely does not
wish to submit to Stalin's rule.
The Western Allies are not any
more particular about this than
Winston Churchill was the day he
urged Britain to help Stain when
Hitler attacked Russia in 1941.
It is sheer expediency now as then.
If the Soviets are trying to divide
Yugoslavia by forcing a crisis
and yet not taking any overt steps
to produce a conflict of arms, their
tactics could weaken Tito. There
are doubtless inside Yugoslavia
many Communists who prefer the
Stain viewpoint and there are
democratic opponents of Tito
who would welcome, again on
the basis of expediency, any op-
portunity to get behind rev.
olution, believing that conditions
of chaos are better than what pre-
walls today.
Meanwhile, the United States
and Britain are consulting con-
stantly and it would not be sur
prising if naval units Of both
countries we're ordered to go up
the Adriatic to be close at hand
in case the interests of American
and British citizens become en-
dangered-the customary excuse
for getting naval or military forces
into a position of watchfulneSs at
the scene of major trouble.
The next move. of course. is
for Yugoslavia to appeal to the
United Nations. Certainly the mo-
bilization of Soviet troops along
the Yugoslav border is a man
Hesitation of coercion and pressure.
Yugoslav is entitled to have the
United Nations consider whether
her territorial integrity and in
dependence are being threatened.
This is a form of counter -propa-
ganda which the Soviets will not
enjoy, as it undoubtedly would be-
come q widely discussed issue
inside the Balkan countries as
we'll as throughout the rest OF the
world.
While there may be many who
have accepted the Communist
line solely as a matter OF indi-
vidual philosophy, there are many
more who feel that they must not
lose their identity as nationals OF
their own country. The Tito
Stain friction could prove to be
the beginning of the crumbling OF
Soviet influence in the Balkans,
not Immediately but over the next
few years. 1t is, therefore, Of the
utmost Importance that the United
Nations, rather than any single
nation, take the initiative in ex-
amining the merits of the dispute
insofar as the facts of military
pressure or potential aggression
are concerned.
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