Evening star., 1949-02-06
Maryland Farmers
Plan Reduction in
Hogs This Year
By R. P. CoIlwoy

Maryland University Agricultural Economist
As was expected following the
record 1948 corn crop, farmers plan
a substantial increase in this springs
pig crop. According to the Bureau
of Agricultural Economics, crop of
56,500, 600 head appears likely this
spring, or an increase of 10 per cent
over the 1948 spring crop. This
figure would fall short of the de-
partment's goal of 100000 head,
but would represent the largest
spring crop since 1914. The goal
number would be approached close
iy, however, il weather conditions
at farrowing time are especially fav-
orable and farmers are able to save
"a larger-than-average number of
pigs per litter.
In contrast to the national trend,
Maryland farmers plan to curtail the
spring pig crop. They report inten-
tions to reduce the number of sows
to farrow by per cent as compared
with 1948. Since the number of pigs
saver per litter last spring was above
average, a drop in the number of
pigs this spring may exceed the per-
centage reduction in sows to farrow.
An 8 per cent increase in the ma
tional 1948 fall pig crop will also
mean more hogs for marketing in
1948 as compared with 1948. Most of
these fall pigs will be marketed in
the period from April through Sep
tember. The 1949 spring crop will
not show up in increased market re-
ceipts until the last quarter of l949.
Pork Prices to Be Lower.
With increased pork supplies, the
general level Of hog prices in 1e49
Is expected to be lower than during
the last year. Current prices are far
below a year ago, but some tempo
rary improvement is likely as re-
ceipts taper of during February and
March. This would be the opposite
OF what happened last winter and
spring when first the break in COM
modify prices and later the packing
house strike caused a sharp decline
in hog prices in these months. A
seasonal decline can be anticipated
in April and May when the run of
fall pigs hits the market and mar
ketings Of fed cattle are likely to be
at peak.
Ordinarily, following a large corn
crop. farmers tend to feed out hogs
to heavier weights. Some increase
in average slaughter weights can be
expected in 1949. This probably
will have the effect of increasing the
price discounts for heavier weights,
particularly since wholesale lard
prices are considerably below live
prices for hogs.
No Serious Break Expected.
The break in. hog prices last fall
and winter has been due to variety
Of causes. The seasonal factor of
increased marketings has been the
most important. Sharply lower
prices for fats and oils also has con-
tributed. In addition, there is some
evidence Of q decline in the con-
sumer demand for meat from the
extremely high level OF last sum-
mer.
Although hog prices this year are
expected to be on a lower basis
than last, a serious break is not an
ticipated. There are strong support
ing factors. Even with larger pork
supplies. total meat production in
194S is not likely to be much above
194s, at least not until the last quar-
ter. Prospects also are for con-
tinuing high level Of consumer in
come. And finally. the support level
to which the Department Of Agrl-
culture is committed In 1949 is not
far below current hog price levels.