Evening star., 1949-12-04
Rise in Unemployment
Predicted; No Cause
|For Alarm Is Seen


February may rise above the peak
level of 1948. Evan Clague. Com
missioner of Labor Statistics. de-
clared yesterday.
He added, however, the level
need not be cause for alarm, "
because the usual spring upturn
should absorb some of the unem-
ployment.
Mr.. Clague. speaking at the final
session of the American Public
Welfare Association convention at
the Hotel Statler, warned. how
ever, that employment will have
to rise substantially in 1850 to
keep unemployment at present
levels. The reasons, he said, in
clude:
l. The possible increase of L.
000, 900 persons to the labor market
with about 250.000 veterans
finishing training courses being
added to the normal annual in
crease of 100000.
New Production Methods.
2. With exception of price de-
clines, employers will be cutting
corners on costs, which leads them
to exercise care in expanding en-
ployment."
3. Changes in production meth
ods in such a period frequently
brings about a persistent labor
turnover"
Mr.. Clague said the employ
ment picture at the end OF No
vember sis more encouraging than
at any time during the past II
months" The earlier decline in
employment. he said, was due
largely to recessions in manufac-
turing industries, which now
seems to show gradual
strengthening"
The commissioner stressed the
need for fast action on the prob
lem of unemployment among old
and middle-aged groups. Present
social security benefits for per-
sons over 65-averaging $25 per
month for the aged person and
$3.50 for the aged couple
obviously are totally inadequate"
he said.
While in 1900 only 4 per cent
of the people were over IS years.
the number is now up to 7la per
cent and will be- about 13 per cent
in the year 1000. he said. citing
proportionate increases in the age
groups between As and IS.
Two Growing Problems.
THE consequence of this will
be that we shall have two grow
ing social and economic prob
lems," he declared-increased re-
tirement expenses and the growing
unemployment problem among
persons in the last two decades
of their working lives.
Fortunately for u.s." he said.
"these twin problems will de-
velop gradually. so some little
time will be available to U.s." BY
1860. however. he added. "the
problem certainly will
be acute If nothing has been done
about it in the meantime"
The associations three day
wound up yesterday with
several panel discussions cover
ing all phases of welfare prob
lens.
At . session IN medical services
for low-income groups, conference
stressed the need for
using all medical and hospital fn-
cilities iri the com, nunity for the
benefit Of needy persons.
Other Speakers Heard.
DR.. Frank F. Furstenberg. di-
rector of the medical care clinic
Of Baltimore's Sinai Hospital. de-
scribed operation Of his city's
plan. under which needy persons
are cared for in community hos
pitals, with the care financed by
appropriated funds.
DR.. Neva Dearborn, Of the
Health Insurance Plan Of Greater
New York. described activities Of
that plan, in which subscribers
under prepayment insurance get
complete medical care from teams
of doctors. The doctors, she said.
are paid on a per capita basis for
persons allotted to them for treat
ment. The doctors. she said, re-
ceive an average of $4,000 a year.
The group also reviewed legis-
lation proposing aid to States