Evening star., 1949-11-02
Results on 3-Yeor Study
Of Stud Poker Announced
Game Considered as Mirror Image
of Ways of Life of Men and Nations
By Thomas X. Henry

By Thomas r. Henry
The ultradignifed National Academy OF
Sciences, Senate of American science, has
just published an ultralearned article on
stud poker.
1t is the result Of three years Of intensive
research by Dr. David Blackwell, professor
of mathematics at Howard University, and
DR.. Richard Bellman of Leland Stanford
University.
He never played game Of stud In his
life, Prof. Blackwell says. and he doesn't
believe his colleague, DIR. Bellman has either
1t was only necessary to know the general
rules to come up with some far-reaching
conclusions. The significance Of the study is
attested by the fact that the sponsor in
the National Academy's journal. was none
other than Prof. John Won Neumann Of the
Institute OF Advanced Studies at Princeton
University, one Of the two or three fore.
most mathematicians now living.
Restricted to Two Players.
1t is safe to say that no two stud poker
players in million will have the remotest
idea Of what DR.. Blackwell's paper is all
about. 1t would require at least Ph.D. in
mathematics to interpret the two pages Of
mathematical symbols in which the con-
clusions are stated
Actually. in order to be treated mathe-
considerably simplified and must be restric-
ted to two players. There Is little doubt,
however. that If the equations were extended
over few more pages, they could be made
to apply to game in which three or more
persons took part.
It all lies in new branch Of mathematics,
DR.. Blackwell says. This is the theory of
games, as important departure, in it's
way. as ditferential calculus. discovered by
DvF,S TfNva A}AS>
are interested in stud poker and blackjack
only because these games are themselves
simplif1cation of the basic human struggles
going on in society and business.
The two mathematicians come up with
one conclusion, however, which may make
old stud players raise eyebrows. They reduce
blufing, the chief element Of uncertainty
which takes gambling out Of the realm Of
simple laws Of chance, to equations.
They conclude, DR.. Blackwell says, that
1t Is good poker to bet high on a certain
proportion Of mediocre hands. The assump-
ton can be made that most poker players
will do SO. and thus the bluff can be
integrated into the general mathematics.
It's the same as business" says DR.. Black
well. Both business and poker are arts
OF making money on the basis Of inadequate
information"
The paper is the result of research con-
~.
Calf
At the same time however, Drs Kai Lai
Chung and w. Feller Of Cornell University,
also working with general principles laid
down by Prof. Won Neumann, have delved
into the mathematics Of tossing coins Their
report also Is published by the National
Academy.
Mathematics the Same.
Tossing coins is simpler than stud poker
but the mathematics seem just about as
complicated. The main finding Is that it
doesn't follow simple laws Of chance, as
coin tossers have suspected from the be-
ginning.
That is says DR.. Kai Lai Chung, ut Is
more likely that one party leads an over
whelming proportion Of the time than that
each party leads about half the time"
This means, presumably that in any par
tlcular coin tossing heads are apt to come
up hundred times in succession without
tails showing once.
Another conclusion: "H coin Is tossed
once second for 1856 days the probability
that one Of the plays win lead for more than
1854 days and 10 hours Is .o5 of / per cent"
That Is, II you keep tossing coins that
long the luck is likely to run about even.
This work was done under the Once Of
Naval Research
The whole will not be Of much use tn
practical stud players but as DR.. Blackwell
explained. the significance Of the whole new
held OF mathematics may be very great when
poker Is considered as q mirror image of
the ways OF life Of men and nations eropine
for guiding principles In strife-torn world
where everybody must bet his life on a card
in the hole