Evening star., 1948-04-06
Russians Had Chance
To Provoke War Last
Week but Didn't
Means Soviet Is Unreody
Or Is Unwilling to Toke
Initiotive With Allies
By David Laurence

Russia could have provoked war
with the western Allies last week
but didn't.
This is the most significant piece
Of information that has developed
In many months Of conjecture and
discussion. 1t could mean that Rus
sia is not ready for war. 1t could
mean that Russia will never take the
initiative in q war with the Allies.
This might be another way Of say
ing that relations between the two
countries, having passed through
severe strains, could get better in
stead of worse in the future.
Another significant happening
which must be taken into consider
alton in appraising the behavior of
the Russian government occurred
last week when q report that Rus
sian submarines had been sighted
of the Pacific Coast Of this country
was promptly and vigorously denied.
Had the Soviets cared to carry on a
war Of nerves they might have
ignored the report. Actually, our
American officials belatedly an
nounced the evidence was "incon-
elusive"
Knows u. 8. Aroused.
There is every reason to believe
that the Moscow government knows
the United States is thoroughly
aroused to the possibility Of war and
that there is a line beyond which
war could occur. Until certain steps
were taken recently 1t could be as
sumed that Russia construed Amer
1can policy as weak and solely con-
cerned with the export Of dollars
under the Marshall Plan. Develop
ments in Congress In the last few
weeks have indicated to Moscow
that their sources of information
may have been wrong and that
there is real danger of war with
America.
The agents Of the Russian gov
eminent have been known to tell
the Moscow authorities what they
want to hear, namely, that Henry
Wallace is about to win the election,
that partisan strife has reached the
point in an election year that makes
cooperation impossible between the
two major parties and, finally, that
the isolationist sentiment has grown
to the point of the 192os when
Americans didn't much care what
happened in Europe.
The Russian people are not eager
for war. ANY nation which has suf-
fered the losses Of millions In killed
and wounded Is not anxious for
more bloodshed. The Russian rulers
know this and they may well sus-
pect that their own tenure would be
undermined IL an unpopular war
were to break out.
The Soviet government has its
hands full with reconstruction. 1t
has tried to extract money and ma
terials from the western Allies and
q great deal more than the Mashall
Plan allows for Europe as q whole
would be necessary to help them to
their feet. The Marshall Plan could
have included Russia but the
Moscow rulers played their hand
poorly and alienated' the sympathy
Of the western peoples. a'@.1' 7~e~i
As 1t Is, the Marshall Plan will
build up western Europe. It may in
time wean away some Of the Balkan
countries now behind the Iron
Curtain" The Russian strategy Is
still to intiltrate governmental cab
inets wherever possible and thwart
the effectiveness Of the Marshall
Plan. ~@ t. + So
Must Make Choice.
But such tactics will result In
complete Illustration for Russia. The
only way out for her rulers will be
to begin to deal fairly and squarely
with America or start q war. Russia
is in q stronger position, however,
nilitarily today than she will be a
year from now. This is because the
western Allies are mobilizing their
resources and getting into a defen-
sive position. 1t is costly, of course
The Russians hope to- bankrupt the
American economy but they under
estimate its vitality and potentiaEty.
In the end the Soviets must make
a choice between war and peace.
For reasons Of their own they are
postponing q showdown.
Time, however, works for the
western Allies. The fact that
Russia did not force the issue and
bring ON hostilities in the delicate
situation that arose In and around
Berlin is the tip-off that the Rus
sian rulers do not dare to risk war
now or perhaps for another few
years.
This does not mean that Amer
lea or the western Allies can relax
On the contrary, If it be true that
a firm policy toward preparedness
has brought the change, then q
continuance of such a policy is the
cheapest form Of insurance. If, on
the other hand, Russia is merely
biding her time till she is ready to
cast the die, then every day of de-
lay gives the western Allies their
opportunity to strengthen their own
defenses.
The probability is that there will
be an era Of relative quiet for sew
eral months at least. There may
be strains and near crises but If
Russia were going to fight she could
have forced the issue last week. She
didn't.
(Reproductien rights ressrved)