Evening star., 1948-09-10

Have Led to Redoubled
Effort in Many Stotes
And Closer Contests
By David Laurence
When Elmo Roper, the distin.
suished analyst of public opinion
announced this week that he isn't
going to take any more polls because
Gov. Dewey Is almost az good as
elected" he pointed out also that
liberals" may believe that by sc
stating he is contributing his mite te
President Truman's defeat and he
doesn't intend anything Of the sort
But, 1t will also be argued by Re-
pubhcans. such q statement by Mr.
Roper may cause large number OF
Republicans to stay away from the
polls on the ground that 1t isn't
necessary TO vote.
The truth 1s that public-opinion
polls have variety Of influences on
the electorate. Lots of people like tc
vote for winner. But there are
signs that many q public-opinion
poll in given State has led to re-
doubled effort and sometimes tc
closer contests than otherwise might
have been the case.
Mr.. Roper qualities his prediction
somewhat by saying that he is as
sum1ng that no serious change In
the international situation-such as
war, perhaps-may develop between
now and the election or that Gov
Dewey will not make any serious
mistake.
Polls Puzzle to Many.
Public opinion polls are for the
most part still puzzle to many
people. There are many who say
they never heard Of any Of their
friends or neighbors who had been
interviewed. They misunderstood
the nature of modern polling or
sampling methods. The present.
day poll doesn't 60 In for quantity
or for canvass Of the same group
but applies to different groups. BY
knowing the percentage Of people in
income groups - the Government
publishes this-and by knowing the
population data and eligible voters
and other factors, a small sample is
taken that has again and again
proved correct.
The same technique has been used
successfully in market analyses to
determine the acceptability of prod
ucts or resistances to price or other
characteristics before Nationwide
selling campaigns are undertaken.
The small sample invariably tells
what the larger sample would tell If
carried on to higher and higher
numbers. .
So when Mr.. Roper says that,
conditions being the same two
months hence, the electorate will
not change its mind, he really
means that the margin Of lead of
Gov. Dewey is so substantial al
ready that nothing short of an in
ternational crisis or gross error on
the Republican side would change
the outcome. This is in line with
previous experience. In fact, many
public-opinion tests have indicated
that the voters make up their
minds long before election and that
campaigns on the whole change
relatively few votes.
But, with the Roper announce
ment. what will the campaign
managers do? Certainly there are
no signs that the President or his
associates are going to relax their
EFFORTS. The Republican manage
ment has announced that the party
workers must guard against over
confidence.
Analogous to 1912.
Basically the reason why the
public-opinion polls at the moment
indicate an easy Dewey victory is
that Henry Wallace is subtracting
in pivotal States enough votes to
make it easy for the Republicans
to win. 1t is somewhat analogous
to 1912 when a third party under
Theodore Roosevelt split the Re-
publican vote, and the Democratic
candidate, woodrow Wilson, had
large electoral vote because he got
a plurality in nearly every i'm
portant State.
The effect Of the polls and the
Roper announcement may be to
bring about a last-minute effort
to draw the followers of Henry
Wallace back into the party. 1t
is apparent that Mr.. Wallace him.
self is not yet willing to talk about
withdrawal, though the left wing"
and liberal elements in the Demo-
cratic Party are working day and
night to persuade the Wallace fol-
lowers, especially in labor unions,
not to throw away their votes and
help the Republicans by supporting
Mr.. Wallace. They are saying, in
effect. that "a vote for Wallace is
. vote for Dewey"
1t is difficult to see what the
Wallace followers can gain. If Gov.
Dewey is elected and becomes a
one-term President due to economic
conditions, would any political
leader inside the Democratic
Party, smarting under the defeat
handed the party in 1948 by Mr..
Wallace, be likely to aid Mr.. WAL
lace in getting the Democratic
nomination in 1852? To ask the
question is to answer it. Hence
pressure to bring the Wallace fol-
lowers in line may be one of the
unintended but realistic sequels to
Mr.. Roper's announcement.
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