Evening star., 1948-01-13
The Budget Estimates

The Federal budget which the President
has submitted to Congress calls for the
expenditure in the 1949 fiscal year of
$39, 1863, 100000. This is nearly 1000, 900 900
more than the estimate for the current
fiscal year, and has evoked from the
Republican Congress charges of politics"
and "extravagance."
If there is anything uncertain in these
troubled times, however, it is an estimate,
made year and half in advance, as to
what great nations receipts and ex-
penditures will be. The President is guess
ing and SO are those who are quick to say
that his estimates are too high. Last
January the Presidents budget estimates
contemplated expenditures of $37.5 billions
and receipts of $37.7 billions-or a pros
pective surplus of mere 5000, 100000. This
estimate of expenditures brought protests
from the Republicans very similar to those
now being heard, and promises of reduc-
tions ranging from the So billion figure
mentioned by Representative Taber to
Senator Taft's more cautious estimate of
three to four billion dollar pairing opera
ton. The latest figures indicate that 1913
expenditures will be $37.7 billions and that
receipts will be $452 billions, resulting in
surplus of nearly $7.5 billions In other
words, both the President and his critics
were far of the mark in their estimates.
Much the same thing can be expected
to happen this year. Against his estimate
of just under $39.7 billions in expenditures,
the President forecasts receipts of $44.5
hi11ioyoc xr,hi io1,
debt retirement of $4.8 billions
What will have happened to these
figures by the time another year has
passed is any ones guess. But that they
will have to be drastically revised may be
taken for granted. For this is an election
year, and to the statistical imponderables
which affect estimates Of receipts and ex-
penditures there must be added the un-
certain element Of politics.
It is a foregone conclusion, for example,
that the Presidents budget figures on in
come taxes are meaningless. He wants to
trim about $3.2 billions from personal in
come taxes and make it up through a.
higher levy on corporations. There is no
chance that the Republicans will go along
with him on this. They have their own
notions about tax reduction and will make
their own cut, possibly as much as $5.6
billions. The question is whether this will
be charged off against the estimated sur
plus, which would mean no debt reduction,
or whether the objective will be to Offset
the loss of revenue by trimming recon-
mended appropriations.
. If the main Republican effort is in this
latter direction. and It Is the more attrac-
tive from their point OF view, there will be
real danger of Gripping reductions either
in national defense or in outlays for
foreign aid under the Marshall Plan. a.
The comments of COP spokesmen in this
respect have been guarded, and until their
plan of action unfolds there is little to be
gained from speculation concerning it. All
Americans who, are conscious of the
gravity of the time should be watching
closely, however, to see that nothing is
done in a spirit of false economy or in the
hope of some partisan advantage which
would weaken this country's international
position or impair our means of self
defense.