Evening star., 1948-10-21
U. 5. Economists See
High Employment and
Lower Prices Till 1854

Agriculture Department economist
today predicted continued higt
Nationwide employment and lowe
prices during the next six years, bu
looked for sharp drop in farmers
earnings during that period.
A department official said there
was no conflict between two sets ot
current reports on living costs ant
expected employment, production
and income trends between now anc
1855.
One report, prepared for fielc
workers and State agricultural ex-
tension workers, regarded full en-
ployment as "a distinct possibility
during the next six years, despite
likelihood of some downward price
trends.
Another report, summarizing COM
ments by department farm analysts
last week at the annual outlook con-
ference of State agricultural repre-
sentatives, declared average net in
comes of farm operators might fall
as much as AZ per cent, or % per
cent even under the most favor
able" conditions, during the coming
six years.
Debt Delinquency Is Danger.
Such a decline, the analysts said
would force a substantial number
of operators to seek Government
assistance in avoiding debt delin-
quency.
Both sets of reports are con-
ssistent," a department spokesman
Explained. The nationwide outlook
is for living standards to stay far
sabove the 1858 prewar level. An
alysts who discuss the possibility OF
q drop in farmers incomes note
that even drop of AZ per cent would
still keep the level considerably
above prewar.'
Lower prices during the next few
years would not necessarily have an
adverse effect on production and
employment, the report said. Such
prices, it explained. might enable
consumers to buy 10 per cent more
goods and services than this year
and so per cent more than before
the war.
The report added that recess
sion with perhaps 10 per cent fewer
Jobs and IS per cent decline i'll
incomes would decrease purchasing
power by only about S per cent be-
cause of an accompanying substan-
tial drop in prices.
Farmers Warned.
Forecasts relating particularly to
farmers painted considerably less
favorable picture. Analysts told the
conference that farmers savings
now total about $4,000, ,000, 900.
Lean times for farm operations dur
ing the next six years, even If con-
fined to some sections of the coun-
try and comparatively few crop
operations, would cause farmers to
use up between 20 and IS per cent
of their present savings, the an
alysts said.
The farmer with relatively small
savings or with large debt-service
obligations would be particularly
hard hit and have to ask Govern
ment assistance, the economists
said.
A bright spot in the farm situa-
ton is that the value of farm land
is holding up and during the next
six years should not fall more than
10 per cent, the conference was in
formed. Norman j. Wall, chief
financial analyst of the Bureau OF
Agricultural Economics, said most
of the land value decreases will be
In the South.
Another department official said
today that some types of farm
operators might have serious ups
and downs" during the next few
years but should continue to be
better off than in prewar years.
This is especially true of citrus
growers who may suffer temporary
losses or who have only recently
laid out large properties and must
wait several years for full produc-
$ir.r