Evening star., 1948-04-04
Italian Vote
Stirs World
Red Victory at Polls
Could Start a
Landslide
By Fronk o'Brien

by fronk Obrien
ROME.-The Italian republic will
elect it's first Parliament April Is.
The issues are worldwide and the
stakes are global The whole world
is watching how Italians vote in
vital test of strength between Com
munist and Communist forces.
The reason: As Italy goes, so may
nearly all the rest of Europe. Here
is how many diplomats and high
ranking Italians In Rome see the
situation:
Italy is the vests front-line bas-
ton in Europe. 1t can be reached
by sea from the west. It connects
by land with Russia's eastern
sphere of influence and with France.
What Could Happen
If the Communists fail to win q
controlling position in Italy through
the election. the spread of Soviet
influence may be halted.
But should italy fall into Com
munist hands, Soviet influence
would receive a powerful forward
| thrust.
Communism is armed and poised
in Greece. II the west had It's
Italian footing cut away, Athens
might be placed under stronger
pressure from Communicated guer-
rillas now active in the mountains
close to Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and
Albania.
If Italy falls to communism 1t is
possible that, much as Turkey hates
communism and fears Russia's 100
year-old desire for the Turkish
Straits, Ankara may feel 1t wiser to
get back on the diplomatic tight
wire.
A Communist victory In Italy
would weaken seriously the position
Of the French government. In the
last two years the rise and fall Of
Communist strength often has fol-
lowed virtually the same pattern in
France and Italy. Many observers
in Rome think three months would
be q long time for an anti-Com-
munist government in France to
hold out after q Communist victory
in Italy.
Should France go Communist,
United States forces in Germany
and Austria would be f1anked by
Communist territory on the west al
we'll as the east.
Scandinavia and the Low Coun-
tries, the observers here predict,
would feel immediate and strong
Soviet pressure If communism
should win in Italy.
Strong Measures Feared
Italy's voters number some 26,0o0,-
900. On election day they will
choose Parliament of two houses
Chamber of Deputies and Senate.
The campaign is shadowed by
widespread fear that, before or
after the election, the powerful
extreme left may resort to strong
measures to gain control of the
country.
These measures could be: ID A
strike wave; (2) an uprising by
underground Communist forces
known to exist, about $4,000 strong.
in the strategic North: 90 or both.
Vice Premier Randolfo Pacciardi
of the moderate Leftist Republican
Party. head of the Cabinet Com
! mittee on Public Order, does not
foresee an attempted revolt soon.
THE Extremists realize they have
lost in the field of violence" he
said in an interview. ''The police
have been enormously reinforced in
numbers. arms and organization.
They are nationally placed about
the country with due regard to
danger areas. We can break any
attempt to seize power"
Chance of Trouble
Nevertheless, other politicians OF
the right. center and left-plus
many diplomatic observers-believs
there is a strong chance Of trouble.
The Communists have q power
full coalition In their Popular Front.
This takes in their own party. the
pro- Communist italian Socialist
ajority and half dozen small left
wing parties.
Most observers agree this coali-
ton will get more seats in the
Chamber of Deputies than any sim
gle opposing party-at least 35 per
cent. Many think 40 per cent, some
say up to As.
They believe the main anti-Com
munist party, Premier Alcide de
Gasperi's Christian Democrats, will
get 80 to IS per cent and the anti
Communist coalition IS to so per
cent.
But the Popular Front, for the
election at least, is submerging
| pdlty AuCliti1iCcs ouPPOcC ~ CACSec
the biggest delegation to the cham
Der and then presents its deputies
not as parcels Of Communists, So
cialists and others, but as solid
group of Popular Front deputies"
This would enable it to make the
technical claim that 1t was the
biggest party in the chamber and
therefore had the right to form
the government.
Longo Serves Notice
Actually Luigi Longo, Italy's No.
10 Communist, already has served
notice the Communists intend to
seize the government by force II
denied "the power the majority
will give us" In the election.
And what If the mandate is given
TO the nti-Communists? Here Is
the answer of a spokesman for a
major front party: