Evening star., 1948-08-22
Trumun Has ADVANTAGES
As Well as Liabilities
Campaign Expenses Will Be Light, but
So May Federal Vote
By Frank r. Kent

So May Federal Vote
By Frank r. Ksnf
At this stage Of the campaign 1t seems worth
pointing out several erroneous calculations
which appear generally accepted Correction Of
one Of these Is to the advantage OF Gov. Dewey.
Correction Of two others rather strengthens
the case for Mr.. Truman-though not to the
point where his chances of success are not still
remote. For example, 1t has been mistakenly,
though frequently. asserted (by this writer
among others that the approximately 2.50o000
civilian jobholders on the Federal pay roll (esti-
mating each to be worth Q minimum Of four
votes) mean . basic asset for the President Of
100000 votes.
Careful research shows this statement to be
incorrect. Far from being able to count upon
100000 votes from the jobholders, 1t Is doubt
full whether Mr.. Truman can count upon two
thirds Of that number. Various correspondents
in different parts Of the country point out that
there are at least S25,o00 postofncs employees
included in this 2500O 900, that all Of these s25,
900 are under civil service protection. that .
majority Of them are Republicans and that Gov.
Dewey probably will get rs per cent Of the total,
In addition, the civil service protects . great
many other jobholders in other departments
Also, In Washington, where the greatest job
holder concentration exists, most Of them have
no votes. In brief, the contention that the full
weight of the Federal machine is behind the
President and that that means 10 600, 900 votes
just does not hold water. Undoubtedly, 1t is an
asset but nothing like as great an asset as has
been stated.
Thus, a widely heralded source Of strength
for Mr.. Truman is minmized by the fac On
the other hand, two el.,'cnts Of wec' ccss
stressed by his critics. when examined, are not
nearly as unfavorable as they seem. One Is the
admitted fact that the Democrats will have Diff
f1culty in raising adequate campaign funds. The
other is that Democratic candidates for Senate,
House and other elective Offices are far more
interested In their own election than In Mr.
Trumans. Hence, the argument is. Mr.. Tru-
man will be neglected by these candidates, in
terested only in themselves; by the big city
bosses, interested only in their local tickets; by
the CIO, which as proclaimed by the blatant
Mr.. Reuther, in private one of the coarsest of
the Truman detractors, is chiefly interested In
electing good" members of Congress.
None of these alleged facts stands up we'll
under analysis. True, the Democrats will find
it harder to raise money than before. The ex-
pectation that Dewey will be elected makes 1t
easy for number Of rich and self-seeking So
called Democrats who gave lavishly to the
Roosevelt campaigns while personally hating
Roosevelt, to close their purses tight now. But
by no means all Of them will do that and there
are in Mr. Trumans cabinet-particularly on
the level just below the cabinet-a number Of
formerly obscure wealthy men, now deeply
enjoying their Washington jobs and lives who
feel under obligation to the Truman adminis-
tration. One Of these, Cornelius Vanderbilt
Whitney, has been made chairman Of the
Democratic Finance Committee. Nearly all OF
them will come through" So will a great
many smaller jobholders. 1t Is q matter OF
self-interest.
Besides, the Democrats do not need nearly
as much money as the Republicans. Their
candidate is in the White House, which in
many ways gives obvious campaign advantages
and facilities for which his opponent must pay.
Not only will the Democrats require less than
half as. much money as the Republicans, but
their treasury is not now-and will not bs later
nearly as bare as has been depicted. So
much for the question of money. Now consider
the theory that all the other Democratic can
didates, the city bosses and the CIo are going
to ditch" Mr.. Truman and look out only for
themselves.
% 1AT AS many OF tNeSe gentlemen are con-
cerned. few would put that sort of treachery
beyond them. The practical political fact,
however, is that 1t Is not possible to be treach-
erous In this way except on q small scale. For
one thing. all the candidates run on the same
ticket with Mr.. Truman at the head. Treach-
cry to him not only would not pay other candi-
dates in votes, but open treachery would react.
The sef-interest Of the lesser candidates is
for the head of the ticket to run as well as
possible. not as badly as possible. 1t makes
no sense for either the House and Senate can
didates or the city bosses not to do as well for
Mr.. Truman as they can. They would have
preferred Gen. Eisenhower, but they got Mr..
| Truman and their fortunes in this election are
| linked with him-and they know 1t. -
| As for the CIO, 1t already has been demon
| strated that its leaders cannot deliver their
rank and file. Already 80 per cent Of the Con-
| gressmen who voted for the Taft-Hartley bill
| and whom they threatened to drive out Of
| public life have been renomnated and most
| Of them will be elected. Mr.. Truman opposed,
vetoed and denounced that bill On the sur
| face, these labor leaders are supporting him.
| UndercOver treachery could not remain under
| cover long and 1t would be stupid as well as
| discreditable.
To sum up, while Mr. Truman's jobholder
| support Is not nearly as solid as has been
claimed, in the matter Of finances and party
loyalty he Is not nearly as feeble as contended.
His trouble Is not so much with labor leaders,
city bosses, money givers and party figures.
His real trouble is with the millions of voters
VINO are independent Of bosses, campaign con-
tributions and politicians The assets and la
bilities above mentioned are not unimportant,
but they are not going to be decisive in this
contest-not by Q long shot,
and the great nations Of Asia in ancient times
and of Spain, Austria and italy In modern
times. And now the United States is in more
danger from similar causes than all others
combined" ef1
Ff-