Evening star., 1948-11-01
Dewey Seen Certain
To Win With Popular
Vote Fairly Close
House TO Stoy Republican
But Outcome in Senote
Still Is Uncertain

But Outcome in Senote
Still Is Uneertoin
By David Laurence
Gov. Dewey will be elected by 9
substantial majority in the electoral
college. He Is assured Of q mini.
mum OF 266-necessary for election
and his majority viii range from
IS to 100 electoral votes.
The House Of Representatives will
remain Republican by a comfortable
majority but the Senate viii be or
sanized by the Republicans by the
narrowest margin In recent history.
The reason for Gov. Dewey's VIC
tory Is that which has emerged In
many presidential elections--the peo-
pie vote against the man in the
White House when, things do not
go we'll with the household budget
or when there is feeling that a
President Is really not equal to the
job.
The campaign Just closed was
wholly a pro-Truman or anti-Tru-
man affair. The question of what
Gov. Dewey said or did was not the
issue. The Republican nominee
satisfied the regular Republican
voters and Mr.. Truman supplied him,
in addition. with q substantial num-
Der of Democrats and independent
voters who simply could not bring
themselves to vote for the Demo-
cratic nominee. This trend against
Mr.. Truman was manifest last sum-
mer when so many leaders in his
own party tried to persuade him to
withdraw. Some other Democratic
nominee would have made the race
closer and might have won.
The very trend that revolves
around the economic well-being OF
the individual gives Mr.. Truman q
substantial vote in the farm COM
munities, especially In the West be-
cause Of the high prices for crops.
The protest. however. against the
cost OF living which usually Is
blamed on the President in oface
means O high vote for Gov. Dewey
IN the urban communities. Because
conditions are not uniform In all
sections, Mr.. Truman will make a
better showing on popular vote than
on electoral votes. Less than 4,000,-
900 votes out Of 1000. 900 will sep
arate the two contenders.
ru-a l. vxyvaxy fha GAvS-
ate race is 30 close. The Senate at
present has 81 Republicans and As
Democrats. Because only one third
OF the Senate plus any vacant seats
are up for election every two years
and because so many Of the seats
happen this year to be in the South
and West, O few contests can swing
the Senate either way. Inasmuch
as only six seats separate the par
ties, II the Democrats gain four
they would have 40 and the Repub-
licans Al of the 90 seats.
Reports from the States where %
seats are up for election, and the $50
seat where there has been q va
cancy that has to be filled, show
that the pivotal contests are to be
found in Montana. Idaho, New
Mexico. wyoming. Colorado. Iowa.
Oklahoma, Minnesota, Kentucky
and West Virginia.
The Democratic Party strength is
expected to be maintained in Idaho,
Colorado and New Mexico. Inas-
much as Oklahoma is normally
Democratic, a change from the Re-
publican to the Democratic column
is anticipated or q net gain Of one
for the Democrats.
This narrows the contest to six
seats-Kentucky and West Virginia
in the area east of the Mississippi
River, and Montana, wyoming,
Iowa and Minnesota in the West.
Neither Candidate Sure.
II is an old rule in politics that
II the top Of the ticket Is running
strong he carries so many straight
ticket" voters with him that the
split ticket" vote Is overcome
Neither candidate for the presidency
Ia running strong enough In three
of the Western states-Montana,
Wyoming and Minnesota-to drag
in o senatorial candidate "by the
coattails" as the saying goes in
politics. In Kentucky, however, Mr..
Truman could sweep In the Dem
ocratic nominee while Gov. Dewey
could carry In the Republican in
West Virginia. It Is significant, on
the other hand. that in neither
Kentucky nor West Virginia is there
any conceding being done as the
predictions vary with the experts
interviewed.
1t looks, however, as II Senator
Cooper, Republican, is strong enough
on his own to win in Kentucky and
as II Senator Revercomb, Repub-
lican, will squeeze through in West
Virginia on the "coattail" vote
which means the Republicans will
retain these two seats.
1t looks also as If Senator Muir
ray, Democrat, will lose in Montana
which offsets the Democratic gain
In Oklahoma.
This leaves Iowa, where Senator
wilson, Republican, will be carried
In by the Dewey vote, and Wyoming, -,
where q similar close squeeze for
the Republican incumbent may be
expected. In Minnesota the odds
favor the Democrat in place of
Senator Ball, Republican.
This would make the final tally
80 Republicans and 4e Democrats.
Thus the Republicans could still lose
IN wyoming or West Virginia and
nave a 49-to-47 lead but IL both
States are lost to the Republicans
ana the "coattail" vote does not ma
terialize for the Republicans as ex-
pected by many veteran observers,
IL would mean tie at 48 to a. and
tne vote OF the Vice President, Gov
warren. would swing the Senate in
70 Republican ranks. 1t seems clear.
therefore. that the Senate will be
organized as to committee chair.
manships and the like by the Re.
publican Party.
A table is given below which Ia in
large part the basis for the above
predictions. 1t Is compiled from the
restlltg Of n ntlscfSoxun,rN ~~-A -