Arizona sun., 1948-03-05

ury snyder. lie
R.ukbaoa knew that too
many people re-
membered what he and others had
said two years ago last fall. Snyder,
at that time reconversion director,
had predicted that by the spring of
the next year Q946) eight million
people would be unemployed. In
fact, so many others believed that
that Henry Wallace, already dream
ing of home with white pillars on
Pennsylvania avenue, decided to
make ''Sixty Million Jobs" a come
hither plank in his platform. He
wrote book with that title and it
became best seller. His book set
goal of 56,5O0,O 900 to 57,5OO,0OO civil
ians employed by 1850.
But somebody must have
stolen the idea or else they
Wallace-and on Snyder-any-
how there were 57,149,OOO per-
sons employed in this country as
of January, 1948 two years
early, and 10 months before
presidential campaign time.
Likewise, in October of 1916, sew
eral astute Washington inside-stuf
letter writer's were saying privately
to their thousands of clients, and the
AF'L monthly survey was saying in
public print, that by early 1947
prices would come down. One could
say on January of 1947, with con-
siderable accuracy, that there was
a general agreement on recession
beginning soon and followed by
more little later.
Other writer's predicted it little
later, and some, by summer, were
insisting that defation already was
here.
But what happened? In the
very year of that dOleful prOph-
ecy, prices started on the up
shoot that took them into their
all-time high.
Many other similar bad guesses
might be mentioned, all of which
contributed toward making the
prophets reticent, and so when the
slide came in February of this year,
nobody would even whisper 'fox"
for fear that not even a kit would
appear. They knew that nobody
would believe them after all the
without-the-wolf-wol6ng that had
been going on.
In any case, this dip, drop, de-
preston or delusion, whichever it
turns out to be by the time these
lines reach print, or later, will have
its garland of myths and legends
entwined about it.
The best myth, of course, is
that Mr.. Truman planned it
that way"
The blueprint is simple enough if
you are good at reading blueprint
between the lines. Prices were get
ting too high. At worst, they might
bring on a real depression before
election; at best, they would bring
series of strikes and work stoppages
which might seriously hamper the
Marshall plan on the one hand, and
add to the discomfort of the voters
on the other. 1t would be like any
operation, not dangerous from the
surgeons point of view. Just little
amputation of credit, at least so
said doctors who work on the body
economic, which would let enough
blood out of some businesses to
cause little unemployment. Enough
to scare off strikes and make busi-
nessmen a little more cautious about
expansion.
There was some evidence that
this may really have been intended
because the President did ask in his
November II message to congress
for credit controls and increased
bank reserves. However, when con-
gress said "humph" to that along
with the Presidents other recon-
mendations, he turned around and
denoted the man who is said to
have written the defation prescrip-
ton from the craftsmanship of the
federal reserve board CMarriner
Eccles), and put in man supposed
to have more sympathy with an op-
poSite course.
However we mustn't spoil a
good story by facts. There are
other points which can be intro