Evening star., 1948-11-24
Popular Vote Totals
Spike Rumors Of Polls
Attempt 10 'MisIead'
Lotest Figures Show If
$500 Changed Minds
Dewey Could Have Won
Bv David Lawrence

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ticularly to the interesting fact just
brought out by the latest Associated
Press figures showing that If 1900
persons out of approximately A.
O00, 900 had changed their votes Gov.
Dewey would have been elected
President.
Such a calculation has been made
after nearly every presidential elec-
ton, but this year 1t has special
meaning. 1t renders absurd much
of the thoughtless comment that
has been heard since the election
about how Intentionally "mislead-
ing" were the polls or forecasters.
Too many people have never taken
the time or trouble to examine the
electoral system by which Presi-
dents are chosen. They would have
been willing to forget the errors in
all the polls and forecasts this year
If the electoral vote had resulted in
O victory for Gov. Dewey. Yet the
same margin OF error in many
States was made in previous elec-
tions by the Gallup poll, for instance,
but this was overlooked because the
overall poll happened to pick the
winner.
Truth as They Saw 1t.
If, as has been proposed again
and again, the election Of Presi-
dent were to be by popular vote,
there never would have been such
despair among the Democratic
Party managers as they exhibited
privately during the campaign this
year, and there never would have
been the overconfldence which the
Republicans manifested.
All through the campaign, the
newspapers generally reported the
truth as they saw 1.-THE closeness
of the popular vote. Again and
again it was pointed out by fore
casters and even pollsters-by none
other than DR.. Gallup himself-that
the popular vote would be close.
The public impression today Is that
Roosevelt won all his elections
easily. Yet, in 1910 and 1914 the
popular vote was so close 1t could
easily have resulted in victory for
the Republican nominee II just a
small number of votes had changed
in a few States.
The importance Of the popular
vote has somehow been minimized
and the electoral-vote result over
emphasized.
The newspapers are not political
organizations, nor are they betting
guides on everything from horse
races to football games. They ex-
press their own views In editorial
pages, to be sure. but in the news
pages they report the speeches and
the happenings of the campaign.
The newspapers cannot make
checkup Of voters by precincts
during campaigns. This is the
business OF the political parties.
To say that their political reporters
should have done a different re-
porting job in each State is to imply
that they did not exercise their
honest judgment. What the re-
porters couldn't change was the evil
dence available to them. Even
many Of the Democrats now elected
to Congress could not see the vic
tory for themselves in their own
districts, even as late as the day
before election.
Need Make No Apology.
If the reporters who honestly re-
ported what was told them privately
by the campaign managers Of both
sides had guessed Truman victory
they would have been right in their
guesses, but they would have been
doing a dishonest job Of reporting.
An honest reporter who conscien-
tiously described the evidence of
trends available to him in the cam
paign need make no apology after
q close election.
II the 1948 election brings about
o wider education OF the public on
the difference between popular vote
and electoral vote, it will be Of tre-
mendous value for the future. AS
long as the electoral system permits
q majority of a single vote of a
citizen in the State Of New York.
for example, to cast Al electoral
votes out of 266 necessary to elect,
the forecasting of any election in
which the popular division is close
can be a surprise. This has been
said thousands of times and written
many times, including this summer
and autumn, but somehow 1t seems
to be still unknown to millions Of
otherwise well-informed persons.
How many people today know the
answer to this question:
Has q majority Of the popular
vote failed to elect President and
how many times did the candidate
who polled a minority Of the total
Of all parties receive a majority of
the electoral votes just the same
and become President?
Answer: Yes, three times-1876,
1883 and 1915.
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