Evening star., 1948-10-26
The Political Min
Massachusetts Voters
Seen Swinging to Dewey
Huge New Registration, However,
May Upset Republican Claims
Rv GonM TineaIn


May Upset Republican Claims
By Gould LincoIn
BOSTON, Oct. 26.-Massachusetts, which the
Republicans have not carried In presidential
election since Calvin Coolidge ran in 1924 will,
unless signs fail, swing to Governor Dewey of
New York in his race against President Truman.
The margin Of the probable Dewey victory is
variously estimated. Conservative figures are
that he will have from $4,000 to 100000 votes
plurality over MIR. Truman. More optimistic
Republican claims place his lead well up to-
ward the 100000 mark No such large margin,
however, seems likely, unless the Dewey sweep
Is tremendous. The New York Governor lost
Massachusetts, to Franklin d. Roosevelt four
years ago by $4,000 votes.
Democratic leaders here make no concession
OF Truman defeat. Indeed, they insist that
their candidate will win by from 5000 to
100000. They are relying particularly on the
fact that there is large new registration, due
to two factors. First, the labor organizations
worked like beavers during the registration
period ana added many names to the rolls
second, the Catholic church, headed BY Arch.
bishop Gushing, has taken the lead in a drive
to defeat the so-called birth control referendum.
which Is on the ballot, and has urged potential
voters to register and cast their ballots. The
result OF these two efforts has been to bring
the registration up to about $500, ,00o-or some
10000 higher than it has ever been before.
The Democrats insist that the greater part of
this new registration favors their candidates,
Huge Independent Vote.
These claims of the Democrats. however
must be taken with a grain of salt. The fact
that large number OF voters will oppose the
birth control proposal does not necessarily mean
they Will all oppose the Republican presidential
candidate. Nor Is it by any means certain that
all labor voters will go for Mr. Truman. The
Massachusetts electorate has been notorious
for splitting its vote.
Further, there are two particular reasons
why the Dewey-Warren ticket may romp In n
winner. In Massachusetts, there is a huge "in.
dependent vote-men and women who wear
q party collar lightly If at ALL This inde-
pendent vote, estimated at one-third of the
total, Is not partial to Mr.. Truman. Many Of
this group made UP their minds months ago
that President Truman is not the man to have
In the White House during the crucial period
ahead. Nor have Mr.. Truman's more recent
acts-his proposal, for example, to send Chief
Justice Vinson of the United States Supreme
Court to confer with Marshal stalin-siven
them any more confidence A large number
OF these Independents were faithful to the lats
President Roosevelt, but just cannot take Mr.
Truman.
The second reason is found in the candidacy
OF Henry Wallace for President While Mr..
WaLace's political fortune seems on the decline
IN the Bay State, as elsewhere, the likelihood
Is ne will poll In the neighborhoed of $4,000
votes. Almost all of this vote will be taken
from groups that otherwise might have been
expected to vote for the Democratic candidate.
Radio Talks Unheeded.
The total vote cast in Massachusetts, In the
1914 presidential election was approximately
100000. The probabilities are, notwithstand.
Ing the two and half million total registra-
ton. not more than 2250,000 will actually 20
to the polls. In some quarters 1t is commented
that apathy seems to have gripped MANY of
the voters. They are not listening to political
speeches on the radio, either by President
Truman or Gov. Dewey. This might mean
one of two things, either the voters have made
up theE minds what they are going to do on
election day and do not wish to listen to
further argument, or they may Just be In
different, caring little for any Of the presi-
Dental candidates.
Before the campaign ends, both Mr. Truman
and Gov. Dewey will have made their final
appeals in personal appearances in Boston and
In the central and western parts Of the State.
Here IN Boston, traditionally heavily Demo-
cratic, polls taken by the Boston Globe and by
the Boston Herald indicate that Mr.. Truman
does not have the support which was given the
late President Roosevelt. In other words, the
prospect is for reduced Democratic lead right
where big Democratic margin is essential for
Truman victory. In addition, reports from
other parts Of the State where Democrats have
been strong assert there has been falling on
In strength Of the party's national ticket.
Massachusetts, 16 electoral votes are the big
prize in the presidential race in this New Eng
land area. The other five States have q total
OF "a votes and all Of them, except those Of
Rhode Island a., seemed ticketed for Mr.,
Dewey by wide margins in Maine and ver.
mont, and by comfortable leads In Connecticut
and New Hampshire. Gov. Deweys election
is expected, whatever Massachusetts, NAV do
but the Republicans are out this year to re-
capture the State for their national ticket after
five consecutive defeats