Evening star., 1948-06-20

Rarely has a COP national con
of outstanding ability knocking at
been no major crystallization on an.
as might be expected to bring
ballot.
Take a look at the cold figures a
tomorrow. Only 298 out of total !
been instructed or pledged-by prin
to four announced candidates:
StaSsen of Minnesota and Gen. Dol
gates have been in some manner C
son candidates, at least on the first
delegates none of whom have been
are claimed" by one candidate Or
another, or by several. 1t is quite
possible, of course, that some OF
them have given personal pledges
to one of the candidates.
Dewey Has the Most
On the surface it looks like a
wonderful setup for a deadlocked
convention, with none of the pri1-
cipal candidates able to get the
necessary majority-548-to nomi-
nate on an early ballot.
| OF the 298 instructed or pledged
delegates, Dewey has the most
1877, distributed as follows: Ken
lucky, 2; Nebraska, /; New Hamp-
shire, 6; New York, 81; Oklahoma,
/ 10; oregon, IL, and Texas, 2. Taft
is second with 85-Montana, II,
Ohio, "A, and Texas 30. Third is
Stassen with 68-Minnesota, 25;
Nebraska, l3; New Hampshire, 2;
Ohio. 9, and Wisconsin, 10. Gen.
Douglas Macarthur has Wisconsin
delegates.
| Included in the favorite-son list
are Gov. Warren of California and
Senator Vandenberg of Michigan,
both of whom are expected to have
votes cast for them outside of their
own State delegations. But Gov.
Warren, who has announced him.
self a candidate, has made no cam
paign for delegates outside Of Cali
fornia, and Senator Vandenberg
has declared himself not can
didate. Here's how the favorite-
son candidates line up: Warren,
California, So; Baldwin, Connect
cut, 10; Green, Illinois, Sc; Halleck,
Indiana, 90; Saltonstall, Massa-
chusetts. IS: Vandenberg, Michi-
gan, Al; Driscoll, New Jersey, 35;
Martin, Pennsylvania. 10, and
Reece, Tennessee, "a.
These figures do not by any means
represent the claims Of the various
candidates and their campaign man
ayers, either for first or second
choice. They are difficult to get
away from, however. And If dead
lock should develop, 1t may be ex-
pected that a group of leaders will
undertake to see what can be done
and probably in a smoke-fllled
room, since all rooms where men
gather today are invariably filled
with smoke-and that goes for
gatherings of women, too.
Deals Come First
Before any such gathering is held,
the individual candidates and their
managers will try to do their own
bargaining-and If one of them is
successful and can get a bandWagon
moving, the smoke-f1lled room tech
nique will not be necessary.
That is what Dewey, Taft and
Stassen each individually hopes to
do before a deadlock arrives. On
the other hand, the real hope OF
/ he dark horse and favorite-son cam
didates for a presidential nomina-
ton naturally lies in a tie-up, with
no one of the first-string candi-
dates able to shake off the field.
Taft and Dewey-if they see p
deadlock coming on and seriously
wish to avoid it-would be in posi-
ton whereby Taft would swing
number of delegates to the New
Yorker and give him run. If
Dewey did not catch on sufficiently.
under such a maneuver. then Dewey,
under agreement, could give Taft
chance by handing over a bunch
of delegates to the Ohioan. Or
Dewey might agree to give support
to Senator Vandenberg, preferring
him to any of the other possibilities.
There is always the danger that
out of long deadlock may come a
candidate who does not measure up
to the presidential job. 1t will be
up to the leaders, therefore, includ-
ing Taft and Dewey, to give their
earnest attention to getting a sat-
isfactory candidate who can run
well and who can administer the
affairs of the United States if he
be elected.
II First. Ballot Names
Since and including the first Re-
publican presidential nomination In
1856, there have been % National
Conventions. In IA of these, presi-
Dental candidates have been NOM
mated on the first ballot The Re-
publicans have always made their
presidential nominations under
majority rule-unlike their Demo-
cratic opponents who for many
years insisted upon two-thirds
convention vote to nominate their
candidates. The Democrats aban-
doned the two-thirds rule In 1896.
In only five of their national con-
ventions have the Republicans taken
as many as six ballots to nominate.
The record high number Of ballots
to nominate a Republican presiden-
tial candidate was in 1880, when
James Garfield, then Senator from
Ohio, was chosen on the seth ballot.
Garfield, at the opening of the con-
vention, was not a candidate at all.
Here was a case of a real compro-
mise IN a dark horse. Gen u, S.