Montgomery County sentinel. [volume] (Rockville, Md.) 1855-1974, 1948-01-01
Business And Financial
Outlook For Year 1913


Lower income taxes should in
crease buying power, but this will
be about Offset by further rises in
the cost of living.
26. There need be no more UNI
employment in 1913 than in 1947:
but Unemployment Insurance
will be taken advantage of by toe
many unprincipled people.
81. Wageworkers will gradual
ly see that the aft-Hartley Bill
puts a checkrein only on their labor
leaders, but not on Union member
ship. Hence, the bitter hatred
against this Bill will gradually
subside. The Bill is merely an
"SEC" for labor leaders who need
it today as much as investment
bankers needed the SEC which was
started ten years ago.
20. Any labor legislation DUR
ing 1913 will be to amend the Taft
Hartley Bill and to raise minimum
wages.
INITIATION
20. The Initiation Era which we
have forecast for several years viii
remain at this stage until Novem,
Der 2, 1913. There will be no reck
less printing of currency or gov
eminent borrowing in 1948.
80. 1948 will see a public reac
tion against feather bedding
"workless" jobs, and union rules
which result in slow-ups. More
labor-saving machinery will be in
stalled. The public is gradually
realizing that imitation can be beat
en- only by increased production.
81. Some time during 1913 pro
duction in many lines will have
caught up with consumption which
will prevent further price increases
in such lines.
30. There will be many infla
ton and price Investigations dur.
ing 1913. Both the Democrats and
Republicans will try to lay the
blame for high prices on the Other
party.
STOCK MARKET
SO. We believe that 1948 will
be year of switching, for various
reasons. One of these will be an at
tempt to get out of stocks of COM
panies which have most of their
assets in big "vulnerable-in-case-
of-war" cities into companies
whose assets are well distributed
and safe from attack.
"a. The Administration will try
to keep the Dow-Jones Industrial
Averages between an upper ceiling
of around 1856 and floor of around
165. Commodity spectators will
be curbed.
So. The wisest will not try to
pick any special winners" in 1913,
Lut will diversity broadly and
those who have too many stocks
will gradually build up good re-
serves, in cash or Governments,
for the big break which will come
some day.
Sc. Careful buyers of stocks
will insist on making full payment
and avoid borrowing during 1913.
BONDS
81. We are definitely bearish on
low-coupon rate, long-term bonds.
Many of these will sell at even
lower prices in 1913 than in 1947.
Money rates will gradually in
crease.
38. If Congress gives a good
reduction in Federal taxes to in
vestors in high brackets, 1948 will
see a further falling off in the
prices of most municipals and
other tax-exempt bonds. AS indi-
Gated above, however, we do not ex-
pect such a desired tax reduction.
80. In view of the large decline
in many preferred stocks during
1947, this rate of decline should
begin to level off during 1948.,
90. Investors will give much
more attention to diversification in
194S and not become too heavily
interested in railroad securities,
telephone issues and other public
utilities, many of which are now
selling too high.
REAL ESTATE
Al. City real estate will con-
tinue to hold firm through 194S,
due to less available space caused
by pulling down structures to save
taxes, to provide parking spaces,
etc. There also is disinclination
to build city property in view of
the present high infiationary build
ing costs.
AZ. Suburban real estate will
continue in greater demand with
still higher prices during 1913.
43. Big commercial farm acre
age may sell for less during 1913;
but subsistence farms located close