Evening star., 1948-07-21
CoIumnist Predicts
Extended Crisis in
Berlin but No War
Incident Could Provoke
HostiIities but Neither
Side Hos Modified
By David Laprence


The war crisis is going to be a
continuous affair for several weeks
or perhaps months-but there ism t
going to be any war.
It takes two nations to make a
war, and there is no basis for the
assumption that either Russia or
the United States wants war.
The real fear is that an Incl
dent" may provoke a war. But If
both sides choose not to let an in
cident" provoke a war. then war
doesn't materialize. Again and
again in European history-and in
Far Eastern history, for that matter
there have been overt acts that
both sides chose not to construe as
an act of war.
Thus when the Japanese bombed
the American naval vessel Panay
In the sos. the Japanese expressed
their regrets and agreed to pay an
indemnity. That ended the matter
The present danger is that there
may be a collision of Allied and
Russian airplanes in the air cor
ridors. 1t could be construed later
as an ACCIDENT and the usual
regrets and decision to investigate
would follow
Russian Strategy.
The Russian strategy at the mo-
ment is to harass the United States
and Britain and the other democ-
racies and to carry on a crisis Of
nerves. 1t is conceivable that the
Russians, in their misguided view
of what is happening in the presi-
dental campaign, think this is one
way to help Henry Wallace and
defeat the oJner two parties. There
are Russian officials who really be-
lieve Mr.. Wallace is going to win.
n that belief is widespread. then
ali the Russians have to do Is to
wait till next January when the
supposed Inauguration Of Henry
Wallace as President would occur,
and presuma bly, at that time all dis
putes will be resolved peaceably.
Another theory prevalent here is
that the Russians believe their form
of pressure will succeed for the
very reason that the United States
and Britain will not go to war over
an incident" or over harassments
no matter how annoying. In a
sense, this is correct Unless and
until there are signs that Russia
intends a major attack, there will
be no war. There are as yet no
signs of any such intention on the
part of Russia. No mobilization of
armed forces such as would precede
a major attack is reported from any
quarter.
So 1t all adds up to a form OF
"cold war" the news Of which up
to DOW has been to no small extent
from America s side. The announce
ment Of the Truman doctrine, the
aid given Greece and Turkey, the
formation and execution of the
Marshall Plan are all looked on in
Moscow as anti-RusSian. The de-
cisions on the part Of the Allies to
form three zone Germany and to
issue currency of their own are also
regarded by the Kremlin as anti
Russian moves.
The Berlin blockade is the crude
answer or reprisal now coming from
Russia. There Is evidence that the
issuance of new currency vas the
spark that touched off the new fires
of resentment.
Seek Way To Save Face
Under such circumstances. it IS
incredible that the diplomats with
their ingenious and resourceful
minds cannot find some new way
or revive some old way to negotiate
a settlement The Russians are in
no hurry to solve the overall prob
lem Of Europe and are not likely to
make any major concessions under
pressure, but 1T would appear worth
while to agree to new conferences
If only to afford the Russians way
slowly to save face"
The Russians know now that
"appeasement," in the sense Of sur
render to impossible conditions that
hurt the prestige of America in
Europe, isn't in the cards. But ne
ROCldIlOll OH Ian UftSlS 10 az way D
an American policy and the British
are similarly inclined. If an i'm
passe occurs, there is the oppor-
tunity to put the United Nations to
It's severest test in settling dispute
that threatens the peace OF the
world.
Americans may be unused to a
war Of nerves or a series of crises
designed to be of propaganda value
to their sponsors but that's what
the Berlin episode really is and
will remain no matter il there are
skirmishes or collisions hetween the
air forces of the rival powers.
If war does come, it will not be
because of an incident" Uut be-
cause the United Nations has failed
to adjust the major dispute itself,
II Russia blocks settlement in
the United Nations-something that
may be weeks or months awav-
it will be time then to examine the
preparations for war and see if eth
er side really contemplates re-
sort to force.
Reproduction Rights Reserved.