Evening star., 1948-09-15
Significance Of Vote
In Maine DebatabIe
Despite Victory
Post Elections Are Cited
To Show Percentages Moy
Not Hold in November
Br David Laurence

Mdlllt, DllC OlllJ oGdGC 1ll CIlC
Union that has a congressional elec-
ton in September, presents an op-
portunity in presidential years to
do bit of measuring of the politi-
cal tide.
This years results, however, will,
like others, give ground for dispute
over what the election percentage
means. In 1910 the September elec-
tions showed a comfortable ma
jority for the Republicans with IS
per cent of the total vote, but by
November the tide had receded so
that Wendell Willkie barely car
ried the State by about $500, with
SIS per cent of the total vote. The
1914 presidential election showed a
reversal as between September and
November but the result was not so
close as in 1910.
The explanation most heard in
1910 was that there was a heavy
vote of former Canadians and that
the whispering campaign concern
Ing Mr.. WILKES German ancestry
had cut into the Republican vote.
But, whether this was or was not
the case, 1914 showed a II per cent
Republican vote in September in
the congressional election and 52.5
per cent vote for Gov. Dewey In
November.
Majority Is Extraordinary.
This time in Statewide contest,
Margaret Chase Smith, Republican
nominee for the Senate, has won
better than 10 per cent of the total
vote. This is extraordinarily good
even In Maine. 1t will be recalled
that in 1916 the senatorial vote for
the Republicans was 635 Of the
total while the total vote for seats
in the House of Representatives
showed about 63.4 per cent Republi-
can.
The fact that the gubernatorial
vote in 1e4S shows a higher per-
centage than 1t did in 1946, when
it was 81 per cent as against about
66 per cent this year, is an indica-
ton that the Republican tide In
party sense is running high and
certainly is not experiencing a
downward trend.
There have been some analysts on
the Democratic side who have been
assuming that the Republican trend
reached its peak in l946 and that
thereafter, as SO often has hap
pened with political trends, the turn
downward would become pro-
nounced. Sometimes a trend keeps
up for q period Of II to l6 years.
The Democratic trend under Frank
lin D. Roosevelt was so high in 1886
that, while 1t did start down, there
was such a big margin over the
Republicans to begin with that the
Democrats were able for 10 more
years to control both the House and
the Senate by comfortable ma
jority.
The relatively close margin OF
~9pular votes between Gov. Dewey
Nd President Roosevelt in 1914
2used many an observer to predict
2at the 1916 congressional elections
2uld show a substantial rise In
ne Republican tide.
NO SIkHS Vi nCCCootohs
This did materialize. There were
~publicans, however, who would
We preferred that the Democrats
ct in 1946 enough members OF
Congress to organize both houses
so that the responsibility for the
s~cond half Of the Democratic term
vould still be on the shoulders OF
the Democrats. Now, with the Re-
publicans compelled to accept re-
possibility at the polls for the rec
ord from 1916 to 1948, 1t has been
expected that the Republican tide
would dip downward.
II Maine Is used as basis for
measurement, the Republican tide
shows no signs of receding and, In
fact, may be rising slightly in the
eastern areas Of the country. Mrs.
Smith had been a member of the
Eightieth Congress, which President
Truman denounced so vehenently
She voted to override the PreSl-
dents veto of the Taft Hartley Act
and his veto of the taX-reduction
bill. Maine has several industrial
areas, and Mrs. Smiths opponent
made an issue of the Taft Hartley
Act, urging its repeal.
The only inference that can be
drawn is that President Truman is
not strong enough in Maine to per-
suade the voters to turn down Re-
publican candidates for Congress
and may not himself run much
better there than the Democratic |
candidates for Congress who have
just been defeated.
If one could be sure now that
Gov. Dewey would get at least a
so per cent vote in Maine next
November, one could be sure that
a popular vote of 81 per cent or
better is likely in the Nation. But
no Republican candidate in recent
years-Mr. Willkie in 1910 or Gov.
Dewey in 1944-has gotten as high
as So per cent in the Pine Tree
State, so that Democrats may still