Evening star., 1948-03-23
The Political Mill
Russians Might Decide
To Strike Without DeIoy
Administration Trying to Show Way b.
Which War May Be Avoided
By Gould Lincoln


War with Russia seems inevitable unless:
First, Russia can gain her objectives de. the
communication Of the world without fighting,
or;
Second. Russia concludes that the United
States is too determined to be frightened and
too strong to be defeated.
This, in brief. is the line OF thinking in ad-
ministration circles which preceded President
Truman's recent address to Congress, In which
he strongly urged that body to legislate into
being the Marshall European Recovery Pro-
gram, universal training and the selective draft.
1t IS still the belief of men who have given the
problem Of Russian determination to expand the
closest study. This is not war mongering. 1t
is, however, an effort on the part of the ad-
mlnistration to show the way by which war
may be avoided, or. if it should come, how this
country may be in position to defend itself.
Increase in Red Tempo.
The increase in the tempo of RuSsias diplo-
matte and strong-arm program Is considered
here evidence that the Soviet government really
fears the Marshall Plan: fears that If the
plan is put into effect with success and the
nations OF Western Europe gain economically
and milltarily in the next year or two the
Russian program, looking to Communist gov.
ernments throughout Europe with Russia DOM
mating the whole, will not only get setback
but may be impossible Of ful1llment at ALL II,
therefore, the Soviet government should reach
the conclusion that its position was deteriorat-
ing and would continue to deteriorate, it might
decide to strike without further delay. That
would mean an early war-With the probabil-
ties that Russian arms could march to the
Atlantic Coast of Europe within 80 days after
the advance started.
The Russian time table was hurried I'D in
Czechoslovakia. 1t is being speeded in Finland
And there is evidence that it is being pressed
in Norway 1t is being hurried forward In
Italy where elections are to take place April
18. The decision OF the United States Britain
and France to urge the revision of the peace
treaty with Italy, giving back to Italy Trieste,
was one Of the most effective diplomatic moves
on the international scheckerboard in recent
weeks. AS such, it has brought denunciation
from Russian and Yugoslav sources. Obviously,
should Italian Communists win the coming
elections, or break almost even, the situation,
so far as checking the spread of communism
in Western Europe, would worsen tremendously.
Problem After April Is.
II Italian Communists, convinced they can
not win the election or obtain recognition in
the government after the election, begin a
civil WAL, OF SHOULD a civil war 0e started alter
the Communists have lost the election, a new
problem would be presented to the United
States. The probabilities are that this country
would proceed along the lines it has in Greece,
where Communists are waging a civil war
against an Communist government 1t
would send military supplies to the italian gov
ernment and provide military advisers Whether
it would go to the extent of sending American
soldiers to take part is another matter.
Congress, if it delays or refuses to carry out
the recommendations Of President Truman for
improving the armed services and national de-
fense, will be guilty of shortsightedness or
worse. It is waiting now for bill to put In
operation again the selective draft-so that
the armed forces may be brought up to re-
quired strength. The administration Is PLAN
ming to have such legislation prepared this
week. 1t should be passed. This, however, is
only one Of the three basic steps proposed. The
Marshall Plan, second step, is going through
without a doubt. But the third, universal
training, is meeting continuing resistance Yet
it is, of them all, the most valuable as long
range plan for national defense