Evening star., 1948-07-20
Odds Still on Peace
Despite Uncertainty
In Business, Finance
Uneosiness Also Caused
By Third Wage Round
Droft and European Aid
Rv David Laurence

StStt Sho H6tSHSAu INV
BY Dapid Laurence
Uncertainty-the enemy of sta.
bility-seems to have brought un.
easiness in the business and hnan-
cial world. Calling Of the extra ses-
sion of Congress by President Tru-
man and apprehension over the sit.
uation abroad are generally believed
to have unsettled the financial mar.
kets.
Another factor has created uncer-
tainty 1t is the third round" oi
wage increases which in turn will
bring higher prices. While there
was much talk earlier this year oi
a third round" of wage increases
it was believed the wage line coulc
be held and that prices would be
stabilized, too.
The necessary launching of Q
large spending program m Europe
was infiationary. The labor unions
have been quick to capitalize or
the new wave of scarcity of man.
power as well as materials.
Passage of the draft law has
tended to make manpower less
plentiful. This inevitably had its
effect on wage negotiations Where
labor is scarce. there is q tendency
to avoid strikes at any cost.
Doubt Over Legislation.
IN calling Congress back into ses-
sion-especially in the unexpected
way it materialized this time-the
repercussions are bound to be felt
throughout the business world
Business and industry had planned
on a certain stability for the last
six months of the year but the
Presidents action brings doubt over
new legislation that may be enacted
by special session.
There is at the moment another
disorganizing factor which, while
not immediate in its effect, will
have long-range impact 1t IL
the change in the method of pric-
ing cement. steel and other prod
ucts which hitherto have beer
sold on basis where the producer
absorbs the freight charge. Much
uncertainty, moreover, surrounds
the future Of plants located fal
away from basing points. All this
added together makes for more
worry and concern in business op.
erations.
Underlying all other factors. ant
perhaps the most important OF al
in its effect on financial markets, i,
the crisis with Russia. The prospec
Of war no longer sends stocks up.
ward as 1t used to many decade.
ago. Today the idea of another wal
brings fright and apprehension ano
causes people to wonder what new
regulation of profits is coming tt
impair earning power and dividends
Nobody, Of course, can tell wha
the Russians may decide to do bu
1t is apparent that the coSntry /.
taking a far more serious view O
the Russian crisis than Washington
does. Maybe this is because th'
Government here, outwardly a
least, would like to impress the Rus
slams with the gravity of the Berlin
blockade.
Many Moves Possible.
But the truth is that unless the
Russians are really bent on precipi.
tating an overt act, war is far
away. There are many moves that
can and would be made before any
outbreak of hostilities could occur
For one thing, mindful Of the i'm
portance Of the United Nations as
an organization to prevent war, the
American, British and French gov
ernments are likely to put the case
before the U. N. If Russia uses her
procedural veto there to stop action
and block a settlement. it will not
be merely possible war for which
Russia would be exhibited as respon-
sible but also break up of the
whole international structure as eX-
emplified in the U. N.
The belief prevails here that Rus
sia will not provoke war or allow the
situation to get to the point where
war could conceivably happen. This
belief is based on the knowledge
that. In the last year or more
Russia has had even more favorable
opportunities, from a military stand
point. to bring on a conflict than she
has today.
The underlying desire Of the Rus
sian government is to force the
Western Powers in some way to
add to Russia's economic strength
either by more reparations or by a
more favorable reshufiing of the
continents resources than Russia
has been permitted heretofore. Sc
long as the game is to negotiate for
more material advantages, it is con-
sidered unlikely that Russia would
risk not only internal disunity but
disintegration of the whole Bal
kan situation which would follow
naturally II a war came
The odds are still on the side OF
peace.
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