The Chronicle-star combined with the Moss Point advertiser., 1948-07-23
Whdt II Means -.
Predict 81 Million National Payroll
BY ROBERT E. c

NllNdAAo Will NC hlllB.
Already more have jobs than
ever before in history. The CEN
sus reported 81 ,296, 900 were. at
work in June, or 1,241, 900 more
than a year earlier.
Robert c. Goodwin, director
of the Bureau of Employment Sc
curity, says up to 1000, O00-and
possibly even more-may be
needed.
Several years ago the labor ex-
perts would have been amazed
by any prediction that 1000, 900
Americans would have jobs in
1948. Many economists were pre-
dieting a recession" would fol-
low the war and that there would
be unemployment.
Instead, non-agricultural en-
ployment, the core of the labor
market, has gradually expanded.
Actually employment has in
creased with hardly a break since
1888, Notable exceptions were
the setback in 1878 and the
drop in employment that occurred
right after the wars end as in
dustry swung into peacetime pro-
duction.
What's happened to send en-
ployment to new high levels? How
long will it stay there?
Government experts are max
ing studies to try to find accu-
rate answers. Meanwhile they
aren't making positive statements
about the future. But here are
some ~"guesses" by both econom.
lists and labor experts:
l. Right after the war the
pent-up buying power of the
people created a huge demand
for goods. This has turned Out
to be the greatest sustained
spending power ever experienced
1t still appears unsatisfied. De-
mands still u strong for auto
mobiles and most of the Other
durable goods" people buy.
2. On top of this demand fol-
civilian goods came the European
aid plan, increasing competition
for buyers.
3. The big birth rate increas.
ed the American population by
13,000,000 between 1940-48. Fam.
lilies had to increase their spend.
ing.
Goodwin says at the moment
there are no signs of a falling.
off of jobs. In the past his esti
mates of the future employment
situation have been right on tht
button. Well in advance he pre-.
dicted the record-breaking EN-.
ployment of last year and thi.
year.
He says non-agricultural EN-
ployment already is at a peak
In addition farmers set out Il
produce a crop about the sam,
size as in 1947. This means jus
about as many people will bt
needed to harvest the 1948 cror
as were employed in 1947.
He estimates that of the same
number of agricultural workers
are needed this year as last
it will create a demand for abou'
1000 900 more workers than now
are employed.
Grain and cool weather delay.
er the planting and harvesting o.
crops this year, and the peak Of
farm employment lies some week:
ahead.)
The labor force contains about
1000 900 more people than many
experts expected on the basis Of
the population increase and the
pre-war trends in labor demand
The extra" people now work.
ing are women over 35, students
and older men who normally
would be out of work. The draft
is expected to increase the scar
city of workers.
While employment has increas-
ed, so has unemployment. This
is normal Goodwin explains
it this way:
There always are a certain
number of people who are chang
ing jobs, laid off because of sea-
sonal, regional or oecupational
conditions or out of work for
other reasons.
So when the size of the labor
force increases, under normal
conditions, unemployment in
creases too. That's because the
three per cent minimum remains
an unchanged factor, but is ap-
piled to an increasing number of
people in the total labor force.
An exception was the pre-war
situation. The prewar peak of
employment was reached in 1941.
The civilian labor force people
working or looking for work to-
tailed 58,260,000 but $500, 900, or
around 10 per cent were unem-
ployed.
Now, with a total labor force
of SO, 480, 600, there are only g.
1874 900 unemployed - less than
half the number in 1910 despite
the fact the labor force has add