Milford chronicle., 1948-01-16
CARRYOVER
IN WHEAT
BY OVID A. MARTIN

WASHINGTON - News stories
about food shortages abroad and the
amount of aid being supplied by
this country often quote some au-
thOrity about the danger of reduc-
ing the wheat carryOver" to too
low level.
The phrase wheat carryover"
has a definite meaning to the farm
er, the grain merchant, the miller,
the food manufacturer and the ex-
porter.
But the city housewife and family
breadwinner may feel that it is
something that doesn't affect them.
If they do, they're wrong.
The wheat carryover might be
likened to the amount of money the
family lays away out of each years
income for rainy day. No prudent
government will permit its supply
of bread-grain to dwindle if it can
help it.
Experience has shown that pro-
ductiOn of wheat and other crops is
at best a hazardous thing, beset by
tickle weather and attacks of insect
pests and plant diseases.
So the government, in sharing
this country's wheat supplies with
hungry areas abroad, must be care
full lest it empty wheat bins and
leave it's consumers at the mercy
of a wheat crop failure next year.
The result might we'll be rigid
bread ratiOning-and there's where
the city housewife and breadwinner
is affected by the carryover or re-
serve of wheat.
How much wheat should the ma
tiOn carry over from one crop year
TO another as insurance against a
bread and -four shortage? There is
no officially or unofficially set fig
ure.
In the five years before the war
the wheat crop averaged about 1885,
100000 bushels. At the beginning of
each harvest in these years the
country had an average carryover
of about 23O,00O,0OO bushels.
This average carryover was equi-
valent to about "a per cent of the
amount of grain used annually for
food, livestock feed, seed and in
dustrial uses. In normal times a
! carryOver of this size is generally
considered to be adequate.
The carryOVer reached a record
of 630,G0O,000 bushels in 1912. Nor
mally, a reserve Of this size would
have been considered a burden upon
the economy because of it's price
depressing effects, the cost of stor-
age, etc.
But, coming when it did, when
the nation was striving to expand
food production for the war, this
large carryover was put to good
use. 1t long since has been used up.
Since the war ended, carryOvers
have been reduced to levels con-
sidered by officials to be dangerous
~ low. The carryOver at the end of
the 1916 crop year was down to 83,-
100000 bushels-or only about 1O
per cent of the nations annual
needs.
Secretary OF Agriculture Ander.
son has said he does not want il to
drop below 15O,OOO,OOO bushels this
crop year. He would like it to he al
least 200,000,0O0 bushels.
The Government can govern the
size of the carryoVer by reducing OF
increasing exports. The final figure
for this crop year will be determin-
ed largely by outlook for next
years wheat crop. In the spring 4
the crop outlook is dark, exports
will be reduced so that a large,
carryover could be kept than if the
crop outlook is favorable.
In normal times farmers do moi
like to have too large a carrvover
because of its price-depressing ef.
fects. They can keep it from goInq
TOO high by resorting to crop con.
troll programs.
/ Kings Rirfh1ov C4o