Montgomery County sentinel. [volume] (Rockville, Md.) 1855-1974, 1948-12-30
COMMODITY PRICES

may be attempted in 1919. The
public will make demands for price
controls in the case of certain
products. Beware of installment
purchases in 1949.
6. We expect the peak in whole.
sale commodity prices has been
reached for this cycle. We, there
fore, advise going easy on inven-
tories. 1949 is time to get out OF
debt and stay out of debt.
z. The retail price of some
goods, other than food products,
may be higher during 1949, but we
believe that the Cost-of-Living In
dex has turned downward.
8. Retail price changes lag af-
ter wholesale price changes. This
explains why we expect many re-
tail prices on good quality mer-
chandise to hold up for awhile
after wholesale prices decline.
FARM OUTLOOK
9. The total farm income for
1949 should be less than that of
1913, due to lower prices for
wheat, corn, pork, poultry, eggs
and certain dairy products. Farm
ers should diversity more in 1919,
get out of debt, putting surplus
money into savings and prepare
for real trouble some day.
10. The supply Of certain vege-
tables and fruits should increase
during 1919. The price of these
should fall off, barring some
weather, insect or blight catastro-
phe.
IL. Poultry and dairy products
will also increase in volume during
1949, prices averaging less than
1913 prices.
IL. Farmers will continue to
work for extensions of subsidies.
The above four Farm Forecasts
assume normal weather. A drought
could upset these.
TAXES
IS. The Federal Budget will not
be decreased during 1949.
ID. Federal taxes will not be de-
creased during 1919, but there may
be some readjustments to encour-
age venture capital and to ease the
tax burden on wages.
Is. We forecast that an attempt
will be made by some cities to put
ceilings upon real estate taxes or
enact local sales taxes.
16. The long-term capital gains
tax of rs per cent will remain UNI
changed.
RETAIL TRADE
II. Goods on counters will be of
better grade in 1919.
10. There will be many "mark-
down sales" of inferior quality
goods. Curbs on installment buy
ing will continue.
10. The dollar value of all re-
tail sales in 1949 should about
equal that Of 1913, perhaps off five
per cent.
20. The unit volume of retail
sales will be less in 1919 than in
1913.
FOREIGN TRADE
81. Our foreign trade will re-
main about the same. We shall
continue to help Europe; but IL
will be on a more efficient basis.
%. More foreign credits will be
granted during 1919; but these
mostly will be direct to business
concerns.
20. There will be greater COM
petition from other countries in
legitimate foreign trade where the
credit is good.
"a. Throughout 1949 war talk
will continue; but no real World
War ii will start in 1919. WAR
PREPAKAIIONS WILL CON-
TINUE.
LABOR OUTLOOK
Is. Good business depends upon
two things: (1) reasonable wages
and (2) reasonable prices. When
both of these factors are in bal
ance there is good business; but
when they get out Of balance, look
for trouble. Low prices are OF little
help when people have insufficient
wages with which to buy; but ii Is
also true that good wages are Of
little use II prices are too high for
people to buy. The Taft-Hartley
Law will be repealed or amended