Evening star., 1948-09-27
Truman.Dewey Race
Expected 10 Be Close
Il Wallace Withdraws
Third-Porty Candidate
Seen Holding BoIunce Of
Vote in Some Stotes

Seen Holding Balance or
Vote in Some States
.>s By David Laurence
President Truman is strong in the
West and may carry a substantial
numker of the States west of the
Mississippi River. Gov. Dewey is
strong in the East and, because of
Wallace defections from the Demo-
cratic Party, will gather enough
electoral votes to get majority.
This is the size-up as the fateful
month Of October approaches. 1t
means that President Truman
would have been an easy victor this
year had he played his political
cards right last spring.
There is every evidence that the
Democratic Party is still the ma
jority party in the Nation. Only
the split in its ranks-largely due to
Mr.. Truman's inadequacy as po-
litical Leaders, about to bring de-
feat after nearly 16 years OF power.
As it is, the popular vote-when
combining the Wallace and Truman
strength-appears so close that the
Democrats have better than even
chance to win control Of the Senate.
Only If there is landslide of Re-
publican votes can the Republicans
win the Senate. They must be
stronger in the West than shown
by the polls thus far made.
Wilson Contest Recalled.
The campaign resembles more
and more the 1916 presidential con-
test when Woodrow Wilson carried
the West and only Ohio and New
Hampshire east of the Mississippi.
He had, Of course, the border States
and the solid South. Today Mr..
Truman will lose some of the elec-
toral votes of the South to the
States Rights ticket and there is
an even chance that Gov. Dewey
may pick up some electoral votes
south of the Mason and Dixon Line.
To most people the why's and
wherefores of popular voting may
not be important or significant
they are interested solely in who is
going to be President. That's an
easy question to answer, provided
two things are taken for granted.
One is that Mr. Wallace will not
withdraw and the other is that
there will be no outbreak OF real
war crisis between now and elec-
ton day to complicate the picture
and cause voters to keep the present
administration in power as they did
In 1910 and 1914.
viii Mr.. Wallace withdraw?
President Truman has all but en-
braced every plank in the Wallace
platform. There is no demagoguery
emanating from the Wallace camp
any stronger than that which Mr..
Truman has been pouring out in the
West. AS for the Communist charge,
Mr.. Truman has called it a. RED
herring" and certainly the Wallace
followers should take notice of the
fact that Mr.. Truman's administra-
ton has not really been harsh on
the Communists at au-at least, so
the congressional committees say
by their reports This means that,
as between Mr.. Truman and Gov.
Dewey. the Communists in the Wal
lace camp certainly will not gain
by causing Mr.. Truman's defeat.
. -. Withdrawal Possible. i.
.aMaybe at q the, last minute Mr..
Wallace might begopersuaded to
Withdraw. It looked earlier this
year as II he and his associates
would be content with the kind of
campaign that compels the Demo-
Gratis to swallow their third-party
ideas. It Is difficult to see how
Mr.. Wallace can gain anything
politically now by staying in the
race. A withdrawal may not seem
probable at the moment but it is
logical, nevertheless. If it occurs,
the main contest will be real horse
race.
Thus the Gallup polls show Mr..
Truman leading by wide margin
in Minnesota and Missouri. If the
Wallace vote were added to the
Truman vote, California would be
In the bag for Mr.. Truman. Other
western States lean toward Mr.. Tru-
man. Even in New York State the
combined Wallace and Truman vote
is far in excess of the Dewey per-
centages as shown in the Gallup
polls.
The Republican tide may be
higher in November than it is today,
but it certainly is not running in
any landslide manner so far as
popular votes are concerned. On
that basis the contest may turn
out to be almost as close as the
1914 election, when President Roose-
velt had a heavy electoral vote but
squeezed out slim maJorities in
many States. Gov. Dewey seems
certain to win but October happen
ings are yet to be taken into ac-
count. and much can happen over
night both nationally and inter-
nationally.
The Wallace strength Is rapidly
dwindling, and will dwindle almost
entirely in a war crisis leaving only
q handful of real Communists-not
over 100000 in the whole country
to carry on the campaign.
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