Evening star., 1948-11-15
Writer Cites Column
In 1947 Predicting
Victory for Truman
Saw Republicans Doomed.
But Later Changed Stand
On Bosis Of Poll Results
Bv David Laurence

On Bosis Of Poll Results
By Dauid Laurence
Right last year, wrong this year
why? A. L. Sayre Of Newark, N. j.,
sends In . clipping Of a dispatch
written by this correspondent on
November z, 1947, predicting that
President Truman would be elected
in 194S no matter whom the Repub-
licans nominated and that the
Democratic Party would win con-
troll Of both houses of Congress in
the same election. On November l
last this. writer made an opposite
prediction.
Curiously enough some Of the
same economic factors outlined In
the 1947 dispatch have been cited
during the last two weeks by many
persons in both parties to explain
the outcome of the recent election.
Inasmuch as these very economic
trends have vital bearing on what
lies ahead in national politics. 1t
Is interesting to examine the text
of that dispatch written immedi-
ately after the November, l947,
election in several States where
governorship and mayorilty contests
showed q trend to the Democratic
Party. It reads as follows:
Irrespective of the outcome Of
last Tuesdays elections, there Is no
secret about the way many neutral
observers feel about the chances of
. Republican victory In the 194s
presidential election.
This writer happens to be reg
istered Democrat, voting in the
State Of Virginia, but believes him.
self nevertheless to be one of these
neutral observers when it comes to
making appraisals of the national
scene.
COP Outmaneuvered.
''The chances are less than even
that the Republicans will win In
1948 no matter who the Republi-
cans select as their candidate. This
is because they have allowed them
selves to be completely outmaneu-
vered by the Democrats since Janu-
ary, 1947, when the Republicans
assumed control of Congress.
Although the Republicans do not
have control Of the executive branch
of the Government or any Of the
executive boards or agencies, the
impression has been skillfully
spread by the Democrats that when
the Republicans got control Of Con-
gress they became responsible tor
national policies.
"Also the Republicans have made
q flop of the investigating process
which the Democrats used so
shrewdly and effectively wnen they
were . minority party and later
when, in 1888, they became the ma
3ority party.
The main reason. however, why
the Republicans have lost ground
Is related to the rise in the cost
Of living. Although the Republicans
fought for the removal Of OPA
controls, Mr.. Truman by his first
veto and the hullabaloo created
thereafter managed to win the de-
bate. Later when he took action re-
moving all controls-much OF 1t
coming Immediately after the elec-
tions-he put the Republicans on
the defensive.
Cost Of Living Factor.
"The Republicans will be beaten
by the cost-of-living issue prima-
r1,y. They may, Of course, In the
CO.., ing session succeed IN impress
ing the country that the admins
tration is largely to blame, but they
haven't done 50 yet.
"If Mr.. Truman wins the elec-
ton, it seems certain that both
houses Of Congress will go Demo-
cratic, too, and the period of
Republican control Of the legisla-
tive branch will thus be brought to
an early end.
THE Republicans lack leadership
of the aggressive kind that wins
elections. Too many Of the Repub-
licans are engaged, directly or in
directly, in presidential politics.
When men are seeking to further
their own ambitions, they are not
too much concerned with the vel
fare Of their party. They come to
believe that after the nomination
Is disposed Of, there Is plenty Of
time to campaign.
Experience in recent years, how
ever, indicates that campaigns are
won or lost many months before .
national convention. Impressions be-
come deep-seated long before elec-
ton day. In many instances, the
impressions thus created are not
erased by the argument of campaign
debate.
There is another factor Of prime
importance-the economic condition
of the voters at election time. With
the imitation boom now in progress
likely to continue with the aid of
the Marshall Plan billions, the
voters will be receiving high pay all
through 1948 and employment will
be at high levels. This may be
phony prosperity in a sober, eco
nornic sense, but it will be accepted
by many others as satisfactory. They
Will look upon change IN admin
tstration with misgivings. Usually
the desire for change comes when
there Is discomfort and unemploy-
ment.
Middle Glass Hit.
''The question of what constitutes
discomfort may well bring differ
ences Of opinion. The middle class
particularly is feeling the pinch of
imitation and naturally q protest
will be expressed at the polls. But,
IS matters stand today, the pro-
test will be leveled at the Republi-
cans rather than the Democrats.
1T will be asked whether the con-
test might turn out differently if
the Republicans nominate Gen.
Eisenhower or Gen. Macarthur. The
debate on whether a man trained
In military life can make a success
IN political life would begin the day
after the nominating convention,
Many Republican voters will prefer
another term for Mr.. Truman rather
than any military man. So would
most people who understand the
American political system.
THE theory that a military ynan,s