Evening star., 1948-04-10
The Outlook in Chino

In his ADDRESS 70 the NauOnal Assembly
at Nanking, Generalissimo Chang Kali
shek has made the depressing, but not
surprising, confession that seven of his
best divisions have been destroyed by the
Communists in Manchuria. The deStruc-
ton has taken place in piecemeal fashion
over period of time. 1t does not mean
that Chiang's forces have suffered a sud-
den major defeat or that they are much
worse off than they have been for months
past. What it does mean, however, is
that unless their fortunes change for the
better China will have nothing to look
forward to but indefinitely prolonged In
stability and warfare.
As matters stand. Manchuria-which Is
essential to long-range plans for Chinas
economic recovery-is pretty much in the
hands of the Communists, whose forces
are also active in other areas as far south
as the Yangtze River. According to Gen.
eralissimo Chang, the situation now calls
for new strategy under which the Man
churian theater apparently is to be
abandoned for q while in order to con-
centrate the Nationalist armies on a
decisive" effort to sweep the Reds out
of Central China. In any event, the
generalissimo has reafIirmed his faith that
the Communists will never conquer the
country, not even if they keep striving to
that end for the next thirty or sixty years.
This is courageous statement, but it
is not very reassuring. Chang Kai-shek
cannot live forever. The forces he has
rallied around him might soon fall apart
without the binding element of his re-
markable leadership. In that case there
would be chaos, and the Communists con-
ceivably could take over in fairly rapid
order. And even If they should never
take over, where can China hope to get
II its internal warfare-which has kept 1t
in turmoil for decades-continues year
after year without any end in sight? As
long as they are strife-ridden, how can
tentials or make any real progress toward
building a proSperouse and democratic
nation?
The answer is that there can be no
such progress until China first achieves
internal peace. And 1t cannot achieve that
peace until the Communist armies are
smashed. Numerically, at least, General
issimo Chang has had enough force for
victory, but he~has frankly admitted at
Nanking that his Nationalist government
has made serious military mistakes"
One of these mistakes, as Secretary Mar
shall has testified, has been that Chiangs
commanders have continually and en-
phatically ignored" counsel offered by our
American mission. But the generalissimo
indicates that such past errors will be
avoided from now on. If they are, and II
the best possible use Is made of our aid
for economic rehabilitation and military
purposes, the Chinese picture may
brighten.
In the last analysis, of course, every
thing depends on Russia. II the Chinese
Communists could not count on aid or
comfort from the Kremlin and If the
Nationalist government would make every
effort to improve It's political and military
operations, China could win the peace 1t
needs to develop into great nation. But
the "ifs" involved here-especially the
Soviet "if"-are much too big at the
moment to allow room for optimism 1t
does no good to paint the outlook in
bright colors.