Evening star., 1948-03-15

assuming net immigration rate o.
100000 persons year. ASSUMING
no net immigration, this figur'
would be $4,000, 900, it is predicted
and another 100000 would be ad
ded by 1000.
The same set of assumptions, In
cluding medium fertility and medi
um mortality, would show an in
crease in the proportion of non
white population with the whit
population reaching a peak of nearl,
IA 900, 900 in 1885 and declining II
about 100000 by 1000, the re
port adds.
It was prepared by P. K. Whelp
ton, associate director of the Scrip
Foundation for Research in Popu
lation Problems at Miami University
oxford, Ohio, assisted by Mrs. Hop
r. Eldridge and Jacob S. Siegel o
the Census Bureau.
Birth Subsidy May Be Desirable.
The opinions expressed IN th'
report do not represent, necessarily
the official thought of the bureau
it is stated.
A declining birth rate probably
will increase popular interest II
plans developed by Canada, Sweder
and other nations to counteract
this, it is suggested. On this de.
velopment, the report comments
"If fertility rates become so low
and families so small that popula.
ton growth will dwindle rapidly
and a decrease begin in a relatively
few years, the consequences will be
serious to the Nation and its people
Under such conditions, support
should be rallied to a program de.
signed to raise the fertility rates
and enlarge families.
Young People to Decrease.
ION the other hand, if fertility
rates and children per family con,
tinue to be adequate to prevent
population growth from slowing uI
too rapidly, the strongest pronata
program needed from an economic
standpoint would be one designed
to check further declines in fertility
and family size in the immediate
future and, later, to bring them ur
to the replacement level If they
are below it." :
BY 1856, women in the 1923 age
group and men in the 20-25 group
will total about IL per cent less thar
in 1947. the report predicts.
"The number of first marriages
will tend to be depressed in SINH.
lar degree" it continues chang,
which will, in turn, reduce the po.
tential demand for engagement
rings, wedding presents, household
furniture and other things related
to marriages"
From 1947 to 1852, single mer
1925 will have a relatively largt
number of single women 1928 from
which to choose BRIDE" the fore.
casters say. This may tend to raise
the proportion of the former tt
marry or lower the proportion of the
latter who do so. From 1857 to 1868
these tendencies will be reversed
Such changes in the propensity tt
marry may be offset by changes ir
the proportion of bachelors selec-
ting a bride to years younger
as compared with one of some other
age. but probably will not be ccm-
pletely offset, because such a social
custom tends to be stable"
Trend Favers Bachelors.
Elsewhere, the report states:
"At ages beyond 40, the oppor-
tunities for spinsters and widows tc
marry probably will become less
favorable in the future and those
for bachelors and widowers, more
favorable"
These are among the changes in
the population considered probable
if present trends of the controlling
factors are not disturbed markedly
/. The proportion of persons over
IS will increase greatly.
2. The nroportion of those under
1S will shink. ard the total in 1875
NAV re smaller than at nresent.
8. Tha pro1ortion of adults in the
"hest working sges'-18-44-will de-
cine.
q. The proportion in the Older
working age group-45-64-v'ill in
crease.
More Families Are Seen.
5. The number of families will in
crease in the next Is years at g
hirher rate than total population.
6. The sex ratio probably will
show little change, but the present
small excess of females over male:
may increase slightly If immigration
is not substantial
7. The proportion of foreign-borr
will decline greatly. unless immigra.
tion is increased considerably.
What will these developments
mean?
In the opinion of the authors oi
the report, these probably will be
among the results:
/. The fall of 1852 will place the
greatest strain on school systems
with respect to new pupils.
2. The aging of the population
will increase the loads on the so.
cial security system, homes for the
aged and hospitals treating the in.
f1rmities of age
3. The same factor will cause ar
increased resistance to drastic
change in the designs of consumer
goods items and may slow techno.
logical progress if not accompanied
by increased adult education.
4. Young workers will find in.
creasing numbers of oldsters astride
their promotion channels.
S. More small housing units will
be needed as the proportion Of
couples with grown children In.
creases.