Evening star., 1948-07-18

Cooperation Administration is bs
greatest single effort by one nation
to help many others back on their
economic feet.
Too Many People to Feed
The answer to the paradox is
chiefly too many people in the world
to feed. Between the last full pre-
war year, 1898, and 1916 world popu-
lation went up approximately 8 per
cent, or 10000, 900 people-the
equivalent Of adding to the world
the population Of . nation our size.
Thus, even II We continue heavy
food exports and crops abroad con-
tinus to improve during all the
Marshall Plan years to 1851, the best
estimates available today are that
there will be . Substantially lower
per capita supply available in 1851
The total number Of bushels will be
much greater, of course. but there
will be too many mouths to feed
even as in 1898.
Here are the dominant facts on
food today:
We set out last fall to export in
this crop year (July /, 1s47. through
June 80. 1s4O a total Of 100000, 600
bushels Of wheat. Final figures are
not yet tabulated for June but
assuming the ALLEGATION for that
month turns out to be the shipment
figure, the years total for wheat
land -four figured at wheat equiva-
lent will be 47s.7oo, ,00o-highest
wheat export by any nation in any
year in history.
This colossal shipment, one OF
Americas chief contributions in the
cold war with the Soviet Union,
came out Of production OF about
l 400, ,000, 900 bushels.
Foreign Prospects Better
Now the Agriculture Department
has estimated the 1852 wheat pro-
duction at 1,24l,75l,ooo bushels,
down from last year but still huge
crop. Along with this there Is .
record breaking corn forecast Of
1928, ,S62, 900 bushels.
The prospects abroad are improv-
ing. For the European Recovery
Program nations, the current tenta-
tive estimate is for q bread grain
drop only s per cent under the aver
age prewar production. East OF the
iron curtain estimates for the So
Wet Union are for q good crop, but
Poland, normally a majers food, ex-
porter and Eastern Germany both
are tagging. Bag sf{ =. s.%
Canada, which will supply most of
the United Kingdoms import needs
for wheat, is in need Of rain at the
moment, although indications are
for q larger crop than last year.
Both Australia and Argentina
have fewer acres planted in wheat
this year than last. Argentina still
refuses to sell her surplus at the
going world price and ECA has In
dicated it will supply no money for
purchases there until the price
comes down. That determination is
one result Of the generally improved
wheat picture.
Rice, another important world
food crop, also is showing an in
crease, though production still is
under prewar averages. The sur
plus producing countries, chiefly
Burma and Siam. are expected to
export so per cent more this calen-
dar year than last, but the third big
prewar exporter, French Indo-
China, is still too torn by domestic
war to contribute much.
Two Things Can Happen
Importance Of the rice export rise
is that less bread grains will have
to 60 to the Far East to make ur
the rice deficiency and thus more
will be available elsewhere.
With the additional bushels OF
grain available, one Of two things
can happen.
This Nation can cut down on Its
shipments abroad, put the extra
grain into feed to encourage more
and cheaper-cattle and other live
stock at home. Under this type of
program the Europeans would con-
tinue to eat somewhere between
1850 and 1900 calories day, their
present food intake.
Or We could continue our ship
ments abroad and let the extra Eu-
ropean grain be added to the Eu-
ropean diet. ECA estimates it
would be enough to bring the daily
caloric intake up to about 2,700.
ECA Administrator Paul g. Hoff-
man already is on record for the
latter approach as "the better course
from the standpoint Of European
recovery" The argument, of course,
is that better nourished Europeans
can produce more food and goods
and in turn build themselves and
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