Evening star., 1948-11-05
Truman Won Election
By Using Rooseve|t's
Original Strategy
Farm and Labor Voters
Alliance Cove Democrats
Victory in Cumpoiens
Bv David Laurence

Sional elecClOnS. he perceived also
that Republican city machines hac
usually been able to win the labor
vote by arousing fears that If the
protective tariff were broken down
and the products of cheap labor
from other countries were brought
In. there would be depression.
How to make an alliance, so tc
speak, of the farm vote on the one
hand and the labor vote on the
other was one of the first problems
to which Mr.. Roosevelt addressed
himself in his early days in the
presidency. Through the Agricul.
tural Adjustment Act and subsidies
to the farm area by the Government
the Democratic Party began to cut
into the farm vote which had always
been Republican.
Similarly, by giving to the labor
unions what they had striven fol-
generations to accomplish-a statu-
tory recognition of the right to COL
lective bargaining-Mr. Roosevelt
made himself solid with the labor
vote.
Trends in Three Campaigns.
An examination of the election
trends in the 1896, 1910 and 1914
campaigns showed that these in
fiuences were operative for the bene-
f1t Of the Democrats. When Mr.
Roosevelt was asked by those who
didn't always agree with his STRAIT
egy. why the Republicans made such
gains in congressional elections, his
answer usually was that these were
local" affairs and the candidates
did not have the benefit of a presi-
Dental nominee on the ticket to get
out the vote.
It will be recalled that Mr.. Tru-
man, in his campaign speeches
again and again insisted that If the
Democrats went to the polls they
could win the election. The returns
this year nevertheless show the total
vote to be below 1914.
There was apathy on both sides.
but if one side gets out a larger
portion of this Indifferent vote,
while the other side through over
confidence or for other reasons
doesn't 60 to the polls, the election
result can be changed. In Maine
in the September election for Con-
gress this year the Republicans won
by o big margin. This was cut by
two-thirds this week as the Demo-
Gratis brought out 100 per cent more
voters than they did in September
while the Republicans hardly
squaled their September vote. This
Is the result of a belief that the
outcome was foregone conclusion.
The same thing happens in the
South after a primary contest. So
the Republicans accepted the polls
and many thought the election was
in the bag anyway and didn't vote.
Many people will ask why, then,
some Of the observers in various
parts of the country did not note
these trends, and why 1t was that
President Truman was virtually the
only man who believed in the prob
ability of an overturn in his favor
The truth is that many observers
did sense that the same influences
were operative this year as had been
apparent in other elections, but the
advance polls virtually defied any
one to exercise Independent judg-
ment. AS long as scientific method
or what seemed to be a fairly accu-
rate method of determining public
sentiment had been devised, indi-
viduals felt frustrated in any at
tempt to question what the polls
were showing. throughout the coun-
try.
Margin Of Error.
In defense of those who make the
polls, however, 1t must be said that
in poll-making margin of error
has always been mentioned. Those
who have been using the scientific
sampling process have heretofore
predicted that sooner or later in a
close election the margin of error
would be such that an entire elec-
ton would be missed, especially
where the votes were close in pivotal
States with large electoral repre-
sentation.
Any one who followed the results
AZ they came in early Wednesday
knew that o shift of q few thousand
votes in several big States would
have made Gov. Dewey President.
Under such circumstances, polls
will continue TO- be taken. but there
doubtless will be corrections made
in the technique and the public gen.
orally will not accept them as gospel
in close-election years but will dis
count probable margin of error.
Mr.. Truman Is to be congratulated
for having disregarded the polls and
for having followed the political ad-
vice he was given from time to time
during his adrninistration-namely,
that high wages for the city voter
and high farm income for the rural
areas was the formula MIR. Roosevelt
used 80 successfully to win three
elections.
Mr.. Truman first disclosed his
adoption Of that strategy on the
night he accepted the nomination in
Philadelphia, when he said that the
farmers would be ungrateful If they
didn't vote for him and the wage
earners would, in effect, "be biting
the hand that fed them" If they took
the risk of a change in administra-
ton His concept as to voting in
fiuences has been vindicated by the
returns. The gratitude" vote ap-
parently outnumbered the protest
vote, or at least not enough Of the
protest or anti Truman vote went te
the polls to swing the election the
ether way.
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