Evening star., 1948-01-18


! hope. Despite progressive harden
rier is being penetrated at all points
reached the surprising volume OF
s-third of prewar normal.
lateral agreements signed since V-El
France. The deal must therefore
be on a basis of 100000 units, or
.one-fourth of the desired transac-
ton. With convertible currencies
In effect, Yugoslavia could pay the
deficit in money.
Clearing House Considered
To offset this disadvantage. eight
of the Paris Conference governments
are considering the establishment of
barter clearing house which would
distribute commodity credits as
banking clearing houses distribute
credits of money. The essential ad-
vantage of the barter system at
present is that it requires no dollars.
Out of the II bilateral pacts negc-
tiated with the west by Russia anc
it's sphere of influence, % are ac-
counted for by Poland and Czecho-
sloyakia, with II each. Finland has
10, Hungary and Bulgaria 0 each,
Yugoslavia 8, the Soviet Union 6,
the Russian zone in Germany s.
and Romania 2. Transversely,
France, Switzerland and the Anglo
British zone in Germany have signed
8 pacts each with eastern countries.
Norway and Sweden have 7 each,
Denmark and the Netherlands 6
each. Great Britain, Iceland, Bel
gium, Austria and Italy 4 each and
the French zone In Germany l.
From Finland to the west come
timber, wood pulp and paper prod
ucts. Russia, Hungary and Ro-
mania contribute food and animal
feed. Bulgaria sends tobacco and
rose oil. Yugoslavia provides cop
per, lead, hardwood, antimony and
pyrites. The outstanding trader In
the east is Czechoslovakia, which
imports raw materials from Russia,
Holland, Greece, France and the
British Empire and exports them in
both directions as manufactured
products. ..
Soviet Trade Pushed
Polish coal from the former Ger
man mines in Silesia Is sent through
out the west. It has been released
by an extensive rehabilitation OF
Russia's coal mines. Formerly Rus
sia accepted coal from Silesia IN
return for its agreement not to loot
reparations from the Polish admin
istration zone In Germany.
Norway is trading fish, oils. and
pyrites for Soviet grain, coal and
metals. Denmark is shipping butter
and bacon in exchange for Russian
fodder and Chechosloyakian ma
chinery and bicycles. Sweden's fish,
iron ore, ballbearings and chem
icals are traded for Czechoslovakia's
drugs, shoes, textiles, chinaware and
steel. The latter country is getting
tobacco and goat skins from Greece;
flower bulbs, river craft, dried milk
and machinery from Holland; rub
ber and wool from the British En-
pire, and wool combings from
France.
Promotion of trade with the Soviet
sphere is being vigorously pushed In
Bizonia, the combined British
American area in Germany. It has
trade agreements with all eastern
countries except Romania and Al
bania. During the first 10 months
of 1947, Czechoslovakia supplied
So 400 900 worth of raw materials
to Bizonia, including seeds, potatoes,
ceramic clay and freight car repairs
and received in return, machines,
spare parts, chemicals and railway
equipment. Western Germany sent
textile machinery, blast furnaces
and other capital goods to Yugo-
slavia in exchange for metals and
timber, and traded chemicals, dye
stuffs and machine products to
Hungary for legumes, leather,
veneers and seeds.
Normalcy Expected by 1852
In return for machinery and
steel, the Soviet zone is supplying
Western Germany with wheat, diesel
oil, pit props and raw materials.
That this trade remains small Is
indicated by an estimate that ex-
ports from Bizonia to Russia IN
1947 totaled about $4,000.
The 16 nations participating in
the Paris Conference, the revised
Marshal Plan and President Tru-
mans message to Congress on the
four year aid program all presume
that by 1872, the east-west flow
of trade in Europe will be restored
to prewar normal or at least to rs
per cent of that figure.
Calculations are that in four
years Poland will be providing
Western Europe annually with 30,-
000, 900 tons of coal, 100000 tons
of grain and 444,000,0 900 worth Of
| timber. But grain is to come chiefly
from Russia, Hungary and Romania,
and timber from Russia, Finland,
Romania, Yugoslayia and Czecho-
slovakia.
Despite the above showing,
Government representatives warn
against undue optimism. An out
break Of war could send all esti-
mates by the board. Determine
ton at the Kremlin on all-out op-,
position to the European recovery
program might stem the natural
courage of trade for a period.