Evening star., 1948-11-18
The Political Mill .A,
Failure of 100000 -.
To Vote Still PuzzIinq
Character of Returns Needs Study
To Determine Reasons Why
By Gould Lincoln

10 Detefmlne NeaSOns why
By Gould Lincoln
One question regarding the recent national
elections which remains to be answered Is:
Why did about 100000 registered and quail
ihed voters not go to the polls at all?
Early predictions of total vote of 58,000,0Oo
by one public opinion poll agency dn June,
194S) and by another Of 100000 Tin Sep
tember) were modified as the campaign pro-
ceeded to approximately 51000,000. On the
basis of returns at hand, the total vote for
all parties, major and minor, will probably
be less than 48,000, ,OO0 This is about half Of
the 93,7040O0 potential voters estimated by
the Census Bureau and about 20 per cent Of
the 66,000,000 people whom the Associated
Press estimated as having registered for the
election
It is expected that when all the votes Of
major and minor parties have been tabulated
the total vote will be slightly less than that
OF 1944-when a war was on and millions Of
men in the armed services were away from
home-and about 100000 less than the pre-
vious high vote of 1910. It should be remem.
bered, too, that those eligible to vote (by age,
etc. had increased nearly l4,0O0, 900 over the
eligibles in 1910.
Mere Shooting in Dark.
Who these people-1S,0 100000, registered
voters-would have voted for had they gone
to the polls remains in the realm of theory.
Until there has been q more thorough inves.
tigation OF the character Of the returns, any
conjecture is mere shooting in the dark Some
Republicans have insisted that many Repub-
lican voters, lulled by the erroneous judgments
Of polls and political commentators, did not
vote simply because they thought that the
election was already won. Democrats, on the
other hand, have maintained that when a
large vote turns out they invariably are the
benefactors.
It may be remembered, in this connection.
that in the congressional elections Of 1916.
when the Republicans gained control of both
houses of Congress by q wide number of in
dividual victories the vote was small. The
Democratic contention has been that the
Eightieth Congress-the present Congress and
Republican controlled-was elected by Q very
small vote.
The defeats of the Republicans in the recent
congressional races were particularly devastat-
ing to the COP. Indeed, In many States
carried by the Dewey-Warren ticket-as well
as in States carried by President Truman
the Democrats made gains In the House and
in the Senate. According to the latest COM
pations, the Republicans gained two seats In
the House drom Democrats)-the LIST and
10th California districts-but lost 78.
G. o. p. Losses in 22 States.
This tremendous loss of seats in the House
the largest for the Republican Party since the
original New Deal sweep in 1932-reduces Re-
publican membership to just about what it
was subsequent to the 1888 election in which
the Republicans won 80 seats. It Is further.
A>k-f
Mr.. Roosevelt's third-term election in 1910.
Nevertheless the Democrats now have control
by probable margin Of "a.
These Republican losses were distributed
among 20 States Pennsylvania, even though
it went Republican in the presidential race by
the largest plurality of any State though not
the largest percentage, had the distinction Of
furnishing the largest number of losses-11
House Seats New York, which also went Re-
publican in the presidential race, showed q
loss of nine Republican seats to the Democrats.
Missouri and Ohio-the latter lost by Gov.
Dewey by a mere 5000 votes-showed losses
of eight Republican seats each to the Demo-
crats Other States carried by Gov. Dewey
which showed Democratic gains in the mum.
ber Of House seats were Connecticut, Indiana,
Michigan, Nebraska and New Jersey. An in-
ference may be drawn-though not conclusively
until all the figures are in-that the Dewey.
Warren ticket ran we'll ahead Of the Repub.
lican congressional ticket in most States out.
side of the South and the border States.
The Republican mortality in the congres.
sional races was particularly heavy in city
districts, many Of which were carried by the
Republicans in the 1916 landslide This leads
to the thought that organized labor and its
efforts on behalf of the Democrats, and high
prices and difficult housing conditions were
in large part responsible for the turnover.