Evening star., 1948-03-28

great Qedl 10 1Tedt bTltalu anu tO
economic restoration.
After travelling over 10000 miles
and asking questions in more thar
a score of key cities, I still don'i
know the answer. But I am begin.
ming to sort out the issues. And the
best way of putting them into 9
single phrase was shown me by q
newspaperman in Little Rock, Ark
I was trying to put into words fol
him some of my tentative views
America is wonderfully prosper.
ous," I said, but everywhere people
are looking over their shoulders and
asking themselves how long 1t will
last"
= What you mean." he said, ''is
that American business is at a
trembling top"
Mood Apprehensive
He told me that he got his Won
derfully expressive phrase from his
wartime experience in radar work.
But 1t exactly expresses my mean
ing. Indeed, it is doubly descriptive.
In the first place it describes how
the tndices-whether of prices or OF
sales or of the national income
have risen to the top, to a top
higher than anybody believed pos
sible, and for months have stayed
there, not very steadily, but just
quivering up and down.
And secondly it describes this
strangely apprehensive mood that
found wherever I went. My first
visit to America was in the summer
of 1929, and I can remember very
clearly the tremendous momentum
of confidence that existed then, Vir-
tually everybody you met then was
sure that American business had
discovered the secret of eternal
prosperity.
Now the mood Is very different.
Business is very good, certainly
but in every smoking room you are
told the reasons why 1t can't stay
that way. Why, hear that over
in Zenith there was big bank
ruptcy the other day." The point
is not that there are many big bank
ruptcies-in fact, there are very few.
But in 1929 items of good news were
almost exclusively discussed, while
in 1s4S bad items are seized upon.
OF this contrast in moods I am
quite certain. What I cannot be
sure of is what it means. In fact,
I am nearly as puzzled at the end of
my tour as I was at the beginning
Almost every piece of evidence can
be interpreted either way. The only
way to set out the issues fairly and
accurately is in an argument as 1t
might have been staged If two
men had made the trip with me, one
determined to look on the black side
of every prospect, the other no less
determined to seek the more cheer
full Interpretation. Suppose We let
them argue it out.
The Pessimist VS.. the Optimist
Pessimist-A corrective movement
is long overdue. There has been
only one year in the last nine when
the national income has not shown
an increase, and the one excep-
ton hardly counts, since 1t was
1916 when the removal of wartime
pressures led to a fall of less than
3 per cent-while all the experts
were waiting for q much larger
drop. A nine-year upward move
ment is. quite without parallel in
American economic history. It must
be near its end.
optimist-Mere lapse Of time
proves nothing. Maybe this is the
longest upward movement ever
known. Why shouldn't it be? 1t has
also covered by far the largest war
in history.
Is 1t really conceivable that all
the damage and dislocation caused
by the war could be put right in less
than three years from We day?
And how can demand for the prod
ucts of American industry dry up
SO long as there are so many un-
satisfied needs-for houses, for au-
tomobiles, for many kinds of dur
able goods? Present business ac-
tivity must continue at least until
it has caught up with these de-
mands-and that means for quite
time yet.
Pessimist-There are signs Of a
decline in consumer demand al
ready. Rising prices before and
after Christmas led to consumer
strikes. The motion picture indus
try is very worried about the down.
ward trend in box-office receipts.
I am told that the Easter retail
trade is proving to be very slow.
Several industries are being
pushed into the red by higher costs,
even though their volume of business
is holding up pretty well-the rail-
roads are an example-and natural
ly they are tending to restrict their
capital expenditures. This sort of
thing might easily start a general
downward move.
Optimist-1t might, but in fact
1t isn't doing so. The total stream
on income payments to individuals
John @. Citizens share of the ma
tional income-is holding up very
well. It was rising right up to the
end Of the year and, though the
Department of Commerce has
warned that the total will be lower
In the first quarter of 1s4s, it has