Evening star., 1948-12-19
Lower Prices, Bigger Supplies
Predicted by Food Experts
Surpluses Of Food
In Sight for World,
Dr.. Hirsch, Wife Soy
Dy the Assoeioied Prsss

Dy the Asseeioted Press
NEW YORK, Dec. d8-The world
is headed toward food surpluses and
from a food standpoint is coming
back to normal, and fast" accord
ing to two internationally known
economists.
DIR. Julius Hirsch and his wife
Edith, have prepared a report on
the world food situation that takes
issue with recent reports OF the
United Nations Food and Agricul-
tural Organization. FAC has main
tanned consistently that the world
as whole has not enough food
This premise, the Hirsches say, Is
based on outdated figures.
Wheat Is sprearheading the level
ing-off process and already the
wheat supply outstnps demand. says
the report, based on a compilation
of records Of the Department of
Agriculture.
American food prices have passed
their peak, the report says, and
despite a probable interim rise. will
fall next autumn below the price
level of this fall.
Former Professor.
A former German university pro-
fessor, DR.. Hirsch was secretary for
commerce and industry in the Wei
mar republic after World War I.
He and his wife later came to the
United States and during World
War II DR.. Hirsch was chief con-
sultant to the OPA. The Hirsches
now are consulting economists,
serving Government and private in
dustry.
The Hirsch report says world pro-
duction of six of the seven main
foods already equals or exceeds pre-
war production. Wheat production
is los per cent over the 1885 1889
average, corn is l25 per cent, pota-
toes los per cent, oats 100 per cent,
fats and oils 100 per cent and sugar
los per cent.
(After the Hirsch report was
drafted, the Department Of
Agriculture reported Friday that
the total volume of ali American
crops is 81 per cent higher than
the 1923-l932 base and II points
higher than the previous record.
set in 1916.
(The department said the fea-
ture of the record harvest was a
corn crop Of 1851 .000, 900 bushels
which exceeds last years harvest
by about one-third. This corn
yield opens the way to sharp in
crease in production of meats
and dairy and poultry products.)
Rice Surplus Piles Up.
Rice production is 98 per cent
of the prewar output but the export
ing countries-the United States,
Burma and Siam-are asking for
dollars and. are experiencing Gin
creasing difficulty in moving the ex-
portable surplus"
Food shortages that do exist in
the various countries are caused
chiefly by their lack Of dollars to
pay for imports, the Hirsches say.
Therefore. to acquire its food
supply with minimum Of imports.
each country is experimenting with
agricultural policies and food dis
tribution.
Noting that the world population
has increased by 10 per cent since
1899, the report says European
countries have raised the extraction
rate for wheat flour to IS per cent
as compared with the American rate
of 70 per cent. This would give a
10 per cent greater supply of bread
from the same amount of wheat and
thus would make up for the rise
in the European population.
FAC Estimates Criticized.
In commenting on recent FAC
reports on the world food situation,
the Hirsches say, for instance, that
the FAO's estimates of the world S
exportable bread grains are too
low and. its estimates of world bread
grain requirements. are too high.
1T is easy enough to construe
theoretical shortages If artificially
high standards of nutrition never
before attained are made the yard
stick" they say. "Our theoretical
present-day requirements of cal
cries, and especially protective
foods, are much higher than were
the actual nutritional standards of
any nation outside the United
States, even in boom periods and
even for their high-income groups" !"
FAC was founded to bring the
worlds nations together in their
food production policies. Instead,
the Hirsches say, each nation still
is pursuing its own food policy and
is not cooperating with any other
nation except through biateral
agreement.
All FAC can do now, the report
says, is bring the nations together
and give them a chance to talk over
their problems much in the nature
of a trade association"
Adjustment Urged.
"For all this" it comments, "the
setup of the FAC, with staff of
many hundreds, seems pretty large
and an adjustment to its debated
task seems appropriate"
In discussing the wheat outlook