Evening star., 1948-03-14
Rudicol Alliance Called
Undoine Of Democrats
Third Party Detection Seen Fatal
To Tr,,nos,, =. Ns... vi
To Truman in New York
By Gerard D. Reilly

ihat PRESIDENT Truman has decided to be-
come candidate for reelection Is scarcely
surprising The timing OF his announcement
however, is not devoid OF significance.
For the past month various ofiicials of ths
CLIO and Garment Workers Union have been
planting stories to the effect that the Truman
cause was hopeless and that he would steu
ASIDE and let the Democratic Party select
Gen. Eisenhower or Mr. Justice Douglas
apparently the Presidents political advisers
finally wearied Of this intrigue.
How permanent Is this break with this
Socialist, group which has been attempting to
take over the basic policies of the Democratic
Party since the panic caused by the Wallacs
candidacy is matter of speculation 1t is
apparent, however, that further appeasement
of the radicals will be fatal to the President,
chances Of reelection.
There are two lessons to be cleaned from
an examination Of the returns In national
elections in the past 80 years which few politi-
cal commentators and even fewer campaign
managers seem to have grasped:
Cd With the exception of the Southern
States, where the two-party system has never
developed the electorate no longer votes along
sectional or State lines.
Cd In any State where there is an alliance
parties in which MARKHAM elements predomi.
nate the number of Democratic defections
makes the Republicans the majority party.
The first point Is illustrated by the fact
that the electoral college system still looms
Importantly In the minds of professional poll.
ticians. In planning his campaign tour, the
nominee is advised by the party managers that
certain States are safe, that certain ones are
ha
the doubtful ones.
Since 1928 virtually almost all States out.
side the South have been doubtful Virtually
none is hopeless so far as the major party,
nominees are concerned. Even such q SUP.
posedly Republican stronghold as Maine gave
only 50 per cent Of its vote to Wendell willkis
in 1s4o and So per cent to Thomas T. Dewey
In 1914.
Although it has been the fashion to describe
all presidential elections since 1916 as land
slides. none Of them since 1924, with the ex-
ception OF the Roosevelt-Landon contest In
1885, has been one-sided, in terms OF popular
votes. Only hairs breadth decided Woodrow
Wilson's triumph in the electoral college In
1916. Yet his per cent margin over Charles
Evans Hughes In terms Of popular votes was
not much different from that of Franklin
D. Roosevelt over Willkie In 1910 or over Dewey
IN 1914, although the offcial scores in the
last two elections were 1882 and 1929
This seems to indicate that the irreducible
minimum for either major party in most States
Is about As per cent. Consequently an "inde-
pendent vote Of 10 per cent decides national
elections And as the independents" In rural
and Western Montana react surprisingly like
the independents" in Eastern industrialized
Connecticut to such interstate stimuli as the
syndicated column, the radio and the national
this causes landslides in the electo-
raj college and tremendous turnovers in the
House of Representatives.
From q practical standpoint, this means that
the matter of planning a campaign tour and
cultivating the local politicians in what are
believed to be close States is a waste of time
and money. A speech in Philadelphia which
appeals to the floating vote in Pennsylvania
will also result in such neglected" States as
Oregon or Michigan bobbing up in the winning
candidates plurality column.
The folly of open alliances with left wing
elements Is Illustrated by what has happened
to the Democratic Party in New York. This
State because of its large electoral vote is
recognized as essential to the success Of any
Democratic candidate for the presidency, de-
spite the fact that Wilson won without 1t In
1916
Today 1t is automatic among seasoned"
politicians that no Democrat can carry the
State unless he also has the nomination of the
American Labor Party. In 1914, Roosevelt
would have lost his State to Dewey by more
than 100000 votes If the votes cast for him on
the ALP ticket had not been counted. In 1946,
there were actually more Republican than
Democratic votes tailed In New York City in
the contest for Governor. 1t took the ALP
votes to put the Mead total ahead Of Deweys
In this traditional Democratic metropolis.
For this decline in party strength, the local
Democratic politicians have only themselves to
blame. From 1912 until Deweys first election
in 1912 there had been an almost unbroken
succession of Democratic Governors. Over
this 30-year span and before the American
Labor Party was a factor, the only two Re-
publicans to win gubernatorial campaigns were
Charles S. Whitman usl4 1919 and Nathan
l.. Miller 1920. BY all the usual yardsticks,
therefore, the modern political history of New
York impels the conclusion that until very re.
Gently it was normally Democratic.
For q large part of this period there had
been fiourishing Socialist Party in the State,
largely made up Of the needle trades in the
district of New York City. These
workers by background and environment were
,aptivated by the teachings of Karl Marx and
his disciples, and held aloof from the two
major parties. The rivalries abroad Of the
Second and Third 1nternationals were reflected
n sectarian politics in their unions with Com
nunist and Socialist factions struggling for
control in the International Ladies Garment
Workers the Amalgamated Clothing Workers
md the Fur Workers.
In the Harding campaign in 1920, the
Socialists polled 100000 votes in New York.
They accounted for about the same number
# votes for Ia Toilette in 1924 NEARLY as
many as he received on the New York Pro-
,ressive ticket.
The number of voters in New York State has
Utmost tripled since that time so that the
lgures compare favorably with the 100000
otes cast by the American Labor Party for
Roosevelt in 1914. Meanwhile the total Social
st vote has shrunk to a tiny handful.