Evening star., 1948-12-30
Economists Session
Hears Mixed Reports
On Business Outlook
By the Assoeioted Press


CLEVELAND, Dec. 30.-Business
forecasts for l949 took mixed tone
among speakers before economists
meeting here.
The American Statistical Associa-
tion heard a variety of ideas or
1949 prospects, and the American
Economic Association heard one
speaker warn against the continued
danger of imitation.
The statisticians were told by
Donald B. Woodward of New York
vice president of the Mutual Life
Insurance Co., that the odds in 194s
are for the start of business
decline.
Rail Layoffs Predicted.
These expressions came after a
Chesapeake g. Ohio Railroad official
said here yesterday that layoffs fol-
the entire rail industry are in pros
pect next year because OF decline
in freight and passenger traffic. Al
least two other roads were indicated
to be experiencing a slump. But in
Philadelphia, a Pennsylvania Rail.
road spokesman said the line-one
of Nations largest-"is not planning
any reduction in personnel" in the
immediate future.
Regarding the 1949 business out
look, Mr.. Woodward said:
This decline will be sufficiently
limited so that most Americans will
know of 1t only from their news
papers and not from personal ex-
perience."
But in the following year, hi
added, the downward move woulc
assume serious proportions.
War Economy Seen.
Frank D. Newberry. consulJant fol
Westinghouse Electric Corp, Pitts.
burgh, said there will be change
in the present high level of business
activity. The Nations economy will
move toward a war economy, he said
Russell Weisman, associate editor
of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. tolo
the statisticians most of the forces
of the boom of the last three years
have spent themselves. Easy money
has run out"
Speaking before the American
Economic Association also meeting
here today, Seymour E. Harris, eco
nomics professor of Harvard Univer-
sity. said that even if l949 is year
of balance or, as many predict, a
year of declining prices. guards
against imitation must be strength
ened."
Ross Marshall, senor vice presi-
dent of the c. & O., made the pre-
diction here yesterday regarding
widespread rail layof1s next year in
announcing that total layoffs by his
line would reach $500 by January /
Virginia Railway Has Cut.
The New York, New Haven &
Hartford Railroad also announced
an extensive" reduction in per-
sonnel, but cid not divulge the num-
Der involved
At Norfolk, Va, "the usual sea-
sonal curtailment" was announced
by the Virginia Railway. No figures
were released.
Mr.. Marshall said, The main
cause is a decline in business vol
ume which began in November.
Pointing out that the c. g. o. was
a coal-carrying road, he declared
it loaded only $3.50 coal cars Tues.
day, compared, with 5000 to 5,50t
daily before the showdown" a..
Coal production in the Unitet
States is satisfying the country:
present requirements, he said. ant
Great Britain, France, Germany
and Poland are mining more coal
They aren't going to buy it here
if they can satisfy their own needs,
Mr.. Marshall added. II don't think
we'll export any coal to Europe in
three years"
Regarding passenger curtail-
ments, he said the line would con-
solidate two of its George Wash
ing trains and resort trains from
Chicago to Detroit would be cut
from six to three weekly next sum-
mer.