Evening star., 1948-11-10
Criticisms OF poIIsDue
Partly 10 Ignorance
OF Methods Used
Scientific SompIing Hos
Shown VoIue in Research
Outside Political Field
Rv Da,id Laurence

DV HOGt0 ANRF SH(C
Two kinds of criticism are being
leveled against the poll makers and
others who went wrong in the elec-
ton forecasts.
One set of critics attack integrity
and claim deliberate bias. This Is
sheer ignorance of methods used.
Also it fails to take into account
the important fact that Democratic
campaign managers in many Of the
States that were won by President
Truman actually believed those
States would be in the Dewey COL
umn. So it certainly could not
have been wishful thinking or bias
which caused those usually we'll
informed campaign officials to tell
reporters and others their private
forecast Of what they believed was
going to happen.
Another set of critics rightly as
sail the methods used by poll max
erS, but here again many show a.
lack of knowledge of what the polls
were trying to do. Many observers
do not know that poll-msking and
research work through surveys has
been going on for many years and
only lately has been applied to po-
litical trends.
Still Are Straw Votes.
There are some people who are
ready to ditch the whole process OF
poll-making, and some are talking
quite irresponsibly about prohibiting
the publication of polls-which
would be, of course, limitation on
freedom of the press. These folks
forget that before the poll.makers
, came into being there were and in
deed still are straw votes.
The American people would be
seriously handicapped If methods
used In research were in any way
disparaged. This scientific sampling
Is used by the U. g. Government in
order to gather valuable statistics.
1t Is often too expensive numerical
check, as, for instance. on the per-
sons afdicted with particular dis
eases at any one time. Yet the
sampling method which may soon
be used by public health officials
may throw light on the spread Of
epidemncs and prove Of constructive
value to the country.
Certain types of economic in
formation have been gathered the
same way. What is wrong is not the
work Of the survey-makers but the
interpretations placed on the data
they gather.
DR.. George Gallup, who is the
most prominent of the poll-makers,
has devoted most of his life to poll
making and very little of his ac-
tivity has been in the field of po-
litical trends. He believes that per-
haps in the future the publishing
Of the bare data without inferences
being drawn might be helpful.
DR.. Gallup is a man of the high
est integrity and any criticism Wis
tied upon him on the ground that he
attempted to influence a result is
patiently absurd. For during the
campaign President Truman was
complaining that the polls were in
tended to keep the Democratic vot-
ers from voting on election day.
After the election, however, the Re-
publicans are complaining that the
published surveys of expected sue
cess for Gov. Dewey kept Re-
publicans from voting. So it can
hardly be true that the Gallup Poll
was based on any political motiva-
ton.
Science in Infancy.
The science of poll-making is in
its infancy. In other countries it
has made substantial progress and
Is looked on as valuable means of
gathering information in inexpen-
Sive ways. But the attempt to fore
cast an election through polls when
the voting is close will no doubt be
considered a dubious task for long
time until ways are found to correct
errors in appraising the data gath
cred.
Thus, what is the meaning of some
Of the facts coming out of Ohio-a
pivotal State in last Tuesdays elec-
ton? For instance, why did more
than 100000 persons who actually
went to the voting booths vote on
the Governor of Ohio but fail to
mark their ballots for any presi-
Dental candidate? Does the an
swer lie in the fact that the gov
ernorship ballot and the presiden-
tial ballot in Ohio are two separate
pieces of paper? Does it lie in the
fact that many voters thought that
by putting mark under the Repub-
lican or Democratic insignia for
governor, they were also voting for
the presidential nominees? Did
they see only the long list of elec-
tors on a separate ballot and be-
lieve that these were local candi-
dates for whom they did not wish
to vote?
The answers are anybody's in
ference, but certainly the Gallup
Poll cannot be criticized for fail
ing to estimate In advance the be-
havior of these more than 100000
voters who didn't vote at all for the
presidency and yet voted for gov
eraor.
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IL