Roanoke Rapids daily herald., 1948-12-29
Bubson
Continued from Page One)


with which to buy; but it is al
50 true that good wages are ct
little use if prices are too high
for people to buy. The Taft Hart
ley Law will be repealed or a.
mended.
26. The income Of wage work.
ers must increase before an ad-
vance in prices. Contrariwise,
too high prices always precede
a decline in employment a nd
wages. This downward cycle
leading to unemployment m ay
begin in 1s49. Much depends up
on crops and weather.
27. Labor leaders who get in
creased wage rates usually get
reelected, while those who d o
not get wage increases are
liable to be defeated. Hence, Ia
bor leaders have naturally kept
urging higher wages, although
they may feel in their hearts
that wages are high enough for
the time being.
20. If wages are too high, or
ganized labor is the first to be
laid off when business declines.
Unorganized workers have t h e
steadiest jobs and will 60
through 1e49 without losing their
positions.
20. Some labor leaders will,
during 1s49, work for pension
systems and sick benefits, but
many employers cannot afford
even these benefits at this time.
INITIATION
30. Initiation (high prioes)
comes when consumption ex :
ceeds production. Initiation can
be checked only by increasing
production or by reducing the
money supply. The job OF gett-
ing prices down today depends,
therefore, upon what manage
ment and labor produce per
hour. We believe that wage in
creases during 1949 will be &C.
companied by n corresponding
increase in the per. hour produc-
ton of the wageworkers.
81. Some object to the large
profits that their employers are
getting today compared with the
1905. 1t, however, should be
remembered that during these
depression years most employ
ers had no profits whatsoever.
We forecast that profits will con-
tinue to be regulated automati-
cally by the law of supply and
demand, rather than by the gov
eminent.
81. At some time during 1949
we forecast that the point will
be reached where the nations
inflated money supply will have
become fully employed. Hence,
emphasis may shift from efforts
to stop initiation to efforts to halt
deflation.
STOCK MARKET
SO. 1949 may not be a better
year stock market wise than
948.
"a. The Administration will
not want the Dow Jones In
dustrial Average to 60 too high
on account of the consequent ef-
feet upon labor's demands .
! Commodity speculation will con-
tinue to be curbed.
IS. The wisest will not try to
pick any special winners" n
1s49; but will diversity broad
ly. Those who have too many
stocks will gradually build ur
good reserves, in cash or Gov
ernments, for the big break
which will come some day
Careful buyers of stocks will in
sist on making full payment ano
avoid borrowing during 1949.
36. Safe dividend paying
stocks will be in greatest de.
mand, especially if double taxa.
ton on dividends should be eli
minated.
BONDS
81. We are definitely bearist
on low coupon rate, long
term taxable bonds as money
rates will gradually increase.
SO. If Congress should exemp
dividends from double fedora
taxation, 1949 will see fedora
falling off in the prices OF Ger
tain tax-exempt bonds.
80. We forecast no change ir
the nations monetary policy re
lating to credit control and in
terest rates during 1919.
40. Investors will give much
more attention to diversificatior
in 1949 and will try to have theil
bond maturities either fairly
short or staggered.
REAL ESTATE
Al. City real estate will con