Evening star., 1948-12-12
Seven-Yeor Program
Would Require q
Huge Outlay
By A. G. MiIlspouqh
Administrator Generol OF the Finances
OF iran, ls22-l927; l943-ls45

Iran may not be a focal point"
in the cold war, but 1t is still crit
ical strategic area. From meager
reports from that country, we have
enough news to know that the So
Wet threat is still alive and prob
ably growing. At the moment, we
can count the Iranian government
on our side. Our policy evidently
is to keep it there.
What are we doing to implement
and execute that policy? Military
assistance to Iran is one answer,
but it is hardly a convincing one
Another answer appears in the re-
cent employment by the Iranian
government of Overseas Consult
ants, Inc, to make survey and
advise on a program of economic
development. According to press
reports, the State Department gave
its blessing to this undertaking
According to the same reports, over
seas Consultants are expected to
check over a seven-year plan al
ready prepared.
The plan, in it's entirety, calls for
an outlay of $3.50, 100000 A part OF
this amount, 40 or IS per cent, the
Iranians hope to borrow from the
International Bank for Reconstruc-
ton and Development, or possibly,
from the Export-Import Bank.
Where the balance will come from
is not quite clear, though it is GER
tain that Iran does not have any
considerable free funds that can be
made available for capital expen-
diture.
Would Aggravate Discomfort
The theory back Of the scheme
is that planned capital investment
will increase production, raise the
standard of living and stimulate the
formation and flow of private cap
ital. A beneicient spiral OF inf1u-
ences is expected to come into op-
Grafton, yieleding more revenue for
public social services, reducing pop
ular discomfort. counteracting Com
munist agitation. building up
stable democracy, promoting peace
and, incidentally, keeping Iran
friendly to the United States.
Unfortunately, no item OF this
theory can be taken for granted,
Increased production demands new
or expanded markets. Even II
these were found, increased pro-
duction would not automatically
raise the general standard Of living.
Practically one Of two things would
be likely to happen. Either the
small class of rich and politically
privileged would profit, leaving the
rich richer and the masses no better
off than they are now; or, If the
benefits were justly distributed, the
chances are that the population
would increase and the general
standard of living would stay at its
present low level. In country al
ready suffering from imitation and
unbalanced trade, any method OF
financing Trans grandiose plan is
likely, before the seven years are up,
the aggravate discomfort. supplying
Soviet agents with fresh ,opportu-
nifty for the exploitation Of griev-
ances.
Tried Out Dictatorship
Efforts toward economic develop
ment and social progress are MOTH
ing new in that country. They have
been under way, intermittently and
sporadically, for hundred years.
First there was the period OF
British Russian penetration, con-
cession- grabbing and political loans.
The Revolution of 1867 marked a
phase of British Russian rivalry,
but it was also a Persian movement
inspired by nationalism and desire
for modernization. From 1900 on
the country had succession OF
foreign missions, advisers and
technicians-Belgian, French, Brit
ish, American and German-em-
ployed to help reform the finances
and carry out specific projects.
Between 1926 and 194l Iran tried
a totalitarian dictatorship, which
spent probably between 300 and 500
million dollars on the Trans-Iranian
Railway, highways, factories, public
buildings, hotels, hospitals and mis-
cellaneous projects. In 1916 after
the dismissal of the third American
financial mission, the Iranian Gov
ernment hired the Morrison -Knud-
sen Co. to make study and pre-
pare a plan. Their hasty COM
pilation of projects went to the
International Bank with a tenta-
tive application for a loan. The
Dd1k UllC 1lAOl AL
adequate. Thus, overseas consul
tants came into the somewhat con-
fused picture, and doubtless this
group, like the Morrison -Knudsen
staff, has been urged to do the job
in q hurry.
Iran is q society without much
motion in it's depths, but with a
bubbling froth of impatience at tn"
top. A sort Of Aladdin's lamp
psychology marks the governing
class. Their volatility is one Of the
causes and one Of the results Of in
stability in the country and of so
many abortive and frustrating ex-
periments. At each essay miracle
is expected to be performed Without
pain to the privileged or sacrifice on
their part; and, when the miracle
fails to come off az expected, they
find appropriate scape-goats and
turn to a new panacea OF new