Evening star., 1948-10-19
Popular Vote Is Likely
To Be Closer Than
Polls Indicate
Apathy Of Many Citizens
Shows They Do Not Wish
To Record Preference
Rr David Laurence

Apathy of the voters does not
mean indifference to the obligations
of citizenship. There are many
voters in every election who just do
not feel like recording preference
as between the nominees. Like
wise, there are many voters who do
not feel like deserting their own
party ticket and voting for the op-
posite party and who rationalize
their feelings about both nominees
by staying away from the polls
altogether.
Experienced observers and some
surveys indicate that persons with
strong feeling of protest do go to
the polls, whereas those who are
satisfied with conditions as they
are do not always take the trouble
to vote.
The latest survey issued by Arch
ibald M. Crossley states that Sc per
cent of all eligibles will vote, which
means about 52000,000. Out of this
number, Gov. Dewey is slated to
get 26,500,000 and President Truman
22,500,000, but this figure for the
Republican nominee would still be
less than FDR obtained in his big
victories.
Reflection of Protest
:, The Crossley poll speaks of great
apathy on both sides" but points
out it is larger on the Democratic
side. This could be, of course, a
reflection of the same protest
against Mr.. Truman's continued
leadership of the Democratic Party
as was evidenced last June when so
many Democratic chieftains tried
to get Gen. Eisenhower to run in
place of Mr.. Truman.
The Crossley poll in 1914 showed
that q low turnout rate for Gov.
Dewey in that year contributed to
his defeat. This doubtless was due
to a widespread feeling that Mr..
Roosevelt would be elected anyway,
because of the don't change horses
in midstream" idea which prevailed
four years ago even among Repub-
lican families interested far more in
an early ending to the war through
uninterrupted management than in
party politics.
It is significant that the poll just
issued by DR.. Henry Link through
the Psychological Corporation, shows
high prices and communism to be
the dominant questions in the public
mind. After 5000 face-to-face in
terviews made by 424 interviewers in
116 cities and towns from coast to
coast, using the qualitative rather
than the quantitative technique Of
vote sampling, approximately 49.5
per cent of the American people
can be considered as believing high
prices to be the most dangerous
threat to prosperous country.
Communism Is next, with AL per
cent of the people believing 1t to
be the most dangerous threat.
1t is interesting to note that
strikes are given by only Ill per
cent, and war talk and threats of
war by only 106 per cent Of the
people as constituting dangerous
threats at the moment. t-
Dividing by income groups, DR.:
Links poll showed 81 per cent OF
the owners and managers and 46
per cent of the white-co1lar workers
and As per cent of the skilled work.
ers as believing communism to be
basic threat to American prosperity.
Missed Fire on Red Issue.
If high prices and communism
are the major questions Of the hour,
It might be supposed that President
Truman would benefit by one issue
and lose on the other. He has arg
ued that the Congress, controlled by
the Republicans, contributed to the
high price situation. He has argued
that the talk about communism Is
a "red herring" introduced by the
Republicans.
But voters characteristically blame
the man in the White House for
everything that happens during his
administration, and they are not
likely to draw a distinction between
the blame to be placed on Congress
and on the Executive, especially
when so many members Of the Presi-
dents own Democratic Party fought
restoration of wartime price control
as vigorously as did the Republicans.
Mr. Truman has missed fire COM
pletely on the Communist issue,
allowing himself to be placed in the
position Of belittling what the House
Committee on Un-American actiVi-
ties and the Ferguson Committee
revealed. Actually Mr.. Truman is
as -communistic as anybody in
the Republican Party, but his stra-
tegy and tactics have given the
impression that he is not as con-
oerned about ridding the Govern
ment and the country of subver-
siye groups as the Republicans de-
clare themselves to be.
AS the election approaches it is
evident that, despite what the polls
show, the popular vote will be closer
than is generally expected, while
the split in the Democratic Party
in several States indicates that the
electoral votes of many States will
go to Mr.. Dewey on relatively mar
row pluralities.
.Esproduction Rights Reseryed.l