The Western news. [volume] (Libby, Mont.) 1933-current, 1947-07-31
Does Not Believe
End Of Good Times
Is Imminent
BY Charles D. Rowe

10y OAAaAAL1 ~ ANWWE
Are you one of those who are pes
simistically convinced that the pres
ent boom is riding to a not far
distant bust?. IF you are, you had
better revise your ideas-perhaps.
Many economists are predicting
dire things for our future prosper
ity unless certain brakes are APP
piled to today's inflationary tenden-
.cies. There are others who take
a more hopeful view They insist
there is no need of a bust. One of
those so holding is Malchoir Palyi,
Phi. D., of Chicago. He writes in
the July II issue of The Northern
Miner, a Canadian publication. What
follows is derived from that article.
Dr. Palyi holds that:
% 1T would take a psychoanalyst
rather than an economist to I'M
earth the intellectual and emotional
motivations underlying the pathe-
tically stubborn depression expec-
tation-in the midst of full employ
ment, rising prices, record national
income, and other symptoms of an
unparalleled BOOM based on an I'M
precedented and expanding none
tary volume. and on a world wide
shortage of such basic commodities
as food and fuel, fertilizers, cotton
goods, steel and other metals, dwell
ings machines, and transport equip
ment"
~ At one time there was much
talk that decline in inventory pur-
chases was imminent What has
actually followed is an increase in
inventory buying, except in a few
over extended lines Stocks on hand,
both by merchants and manufacture
ers, are low in relation to pre-war
stocks.
90 Palyi says no dollar shortage
is imminent among our foreign Gus
toners, which has been another fear
as a factor leading to reduced ac-
tivity here. To- bolster the supply
of dollars in the hands Of foreign
buyers, the writer cites the (a) lend
ing capacity of the International
Fund, a total of almost 10 billions. |
(b) The international Bank can
raise a possible three billion dol !
lars in this country, if needed, for
foreign loans (c) Private charities
and investments flowing out of this /
country add another billion dollars I
annually. I'D Also we absorb the |
fresh gold output of the world a
mounting to 700 millions annually. /
(e) Foreign countries possess well II
over 20 billions in gold and dollar
holdings, some of which they I'M
doubleday would spend for badly
needed supplies. Palyi concludes our
export boom is likely to last for
at least another two and half
years.
The writer asks if we are going /
to stop Immediately our contribu-
tons abroad for rehabilitation, re-
lief and reconstruction. He answers
that query with:
Like it or not, we are committed
to giving substantial aid abroad
over and above our official commit
ments. The question is not whether
we Will give away more billions.
The question is, what will we ac-
complish by doing so. and how much
longer can we 60 on with that kind
of financing without accomplishing
much except to aggravate
our shortages at home"
Dr. Palyi sees promising condi-
tions for the next few years. With
an unprecedented demand here for
all that our industrial
machine can produce, with every
one at work and with money plenti-
full, and with good reason to be-
lieve that our foreign customers
will continue to buy from us on
large scale, the writer can see no
reason to expect bust to our pres
ent boom. We hope he is right