Evening star., 1947-11-07
Republicans Chances
To Win '4S Election
Seen Less Than Even
Have Allowed Themselves
To Be Outmuneuvered in
Congress Since January
By David Laurence

By David Laurence
Irrespective of the outcome of last
Tuesdays elections, there Is no
secret about the way many neutral
observers feel about the chances of
a Republican victory in the 1s48
presidential election.
This writer happens to be regis
tered Democrat, voting In the State
Of Virginia, but believes himself
nevertheless to be one OF these
neutral observers when 1t comes
to making appraisals OF the ma
tional scene.
The chances are less than even
that the Republicans will win In
1948 no matter who the Republicans
select as their candidate. This is
because they have allowed them
selves to be completely outmaneu-
vered by the Democrats since Janu-
ary, 1947, when the Republicans
assumed control of Congress.
Although the Republicans do not
have control of the executive branch
of the Government or any Of the
executive boards or agencies, the
impression has been skillfuny
spread by the Democrats that when
the Republicans got control OF Con-
gress they became responsible for
national policies.
Flop on investigations.
Also the Republicans have made
a flop of the investigating process
which the Democrats used so
shrewdly and effectively when they
were a minority party and later
when. In 1888, they became the ma
jority party.
The main reason, however, why
the Republicans have lost ground Is
related to the rise in the cost OF
living. Although the Republicans
fought for the removal Of OPA con-
trolls, Mr.. Truman by his first veto
and the hullabaloo created there
after managed to win the debate.
Later when he took action removing
all controls-much of it coming i'm
mediately after the elections-he put
the Republicans on the defensive.
The Republicans will be beaten by
the cost-of living issue primarily.
They may, of course, in the coming
session succeed in impressing the
country that the administration is
largely to blame, but they haven't
done so yet.
II Mr.. Truman wins the election,
It seems certain that both houses OF
Congress will go Democratic, too,
and the period of Republican con-
troll Of the legislative branch will
thus be brought to an early end.
The Republicans lack leadership
OF the aggressive kind that wins
elections. Too many of the Repub-
licans are engaged, directly or in
directly, In presidential politics.
When men are seeking to further
their own ambitions, they are not
too much concerned with the well
fare of their party. They come to
believe that after the nomination
is disposed of there is plenty OF time
to campaign.
Experience in recent years, how
ever, indicates that campaigns are
won or lost many months before a
national convention. Impressions
become deep-seated long before elec-
ton day. In many instances, the
tmpressions thus created are not
erased by the argument OF cam
paign debate.
Factor of Economics.
There is another factor OF prime
importance-the economic condi-
ton of the voters at election time.
With the imitation boom now In
progress likely to continue with the
aid of the Marshall plan billions,
the voters will be receiving high pay
all through 1913 and employment
will be at high levels. This may be
phony prosperity in sober, eco
nomic sense, but 1t will be accepted
by many voters as satisfactory.
They will look upon a change IN
administration with misgivings.
Usually the desire for change comes
when there is discomfort and un-
employment.
The question of what constitutes
discomfort may we'll bring differ
ences of opinion. The middle class
particularly is feeling the pinch OF
imitation and naturally protest
will be expressed at the polls. But,
as matters stand today, the protest
will be leveled at the Republicans
rather than the Democrats.
It will be asked whether the con-
test might turn out differently II
the Republicans nominate Gen
Eisenhower or Gen. Macarthur. The
debate on whether a man trained
In military life can make sue
cess in political life would begin
the day after the nominating con-
vention. Many Republican voters
will prefer another term for Mr.
Truman rather than any military
man. So would most people who
understand the American political
system.
The theory that a military mans
popularity and reputation is enough
to defeat an incumbent President
at the height Of wave of pros
perity is not politically sound. All
the indicators of the past are that,
no matter who the candidate is, it
Is difficult to dislodge a candidate
for the presidency if his party has
been in power when economic con-
ditions are favorable.
(DaproSUrfiops RiobtE Reserved