The Wilmington morning star., 1947-07-27
The Gallup. Poll
Truman Holds Slight Lead Over Dewey
In Today's Presidential Trial Heat
Survey Shows 81 P. c. for
President, 40 P. c. For
Republican
By GEORGE GALLUP
Director, American Institute
of Public Opinion

PRINCETON, N. j., July
26 - If Thomas E. Dewey
and President Truman were
the opposing candidates in a
presidential election today,
the race would be close. with
Truman leading by a nose.
Pitting the two men against
each other in a presidential trial
heat" the Institute finds the fol-
lowing results as a mid-July,
roughly a year before the nomi-
mating conventions:
IF the presidential election
were being held today and Dewey
were running for president On the
Republican ticket, against Tru-
man on the Democratic ticket,
how do you think you would vote?"
Those expressing a choice vote
as follows:
TRUMAN 51%
DEWEY 40
A total of 10 per cent in the
poll prefer to sit d. the fence m
dicating no choice between Ike
two men. With these no opinion
voters included, the poll results
are: 46 per cent for Truman, "A
per cent for Dewey and 10 per
cent undecided.
These results represent a gam
fol President Truman in recent
months. Last November when
President Humans prestige a S
at low point and when the re-
publicans had just won control of
the House, a similar trial heat"
found Dewey leading by a sub
stantial margin.
Two observations concerning the
latest poll results seem in order:
I. Any general appraisal of the
political situation today must take
into account at least three fctors
the basic strength of the DEM
ocratic and Republican parties;
what the country thinks of the
job Truman is dong in the White
House: and how the voters react
to specific candidate possibilities.
All three factors have been
covered repeatedly in Institute
surveys and they all add up to one
thing: Truman and the Democrats
are in the lead at the moment.
For example, SIS per cent of the
voters say they prefer the Demo-
cratic party, nationally, today,
while As per cent favor the Re
publicans. Fifty four per cent sa"
they approve of the way Truman
is handling his job as president.
In terms of two specific candi-
Gates, Dewey and Truman, 81 per
cent say they prefer Truman.
Of these tire indexes, all of
which contribute to a rounded
picture of politics today, the Sec
ond and the third are highly SEN
sitive to daily events and to the
activities and speeches of politl-
cal personalities. Humans popu-
larity curve, for example, has
shown wide fluctuations in the
past year, and so have the figures
in trial heat races between
Dewey and Truman.
The first index mentioned above,
party strength, has shown much
more stability, and has in the IL
years experience of the Institute
proved a highly accurate gauge Of
subsequent voting behavior in
elections. Whether the Democratic
Party will continue to hold rs lead
during the next year remains to
be seen. While today's findings are
a general reflection of waat is
happening today, they are in no
sense a forecast Of what will hap
pen in 1913.
2. At a comparable period in
advance of the 1914 presidential
election a trial heat" between
Roosevelt and Dewey found
Dewey trailing. The survey W as
conducted in August, 1913 and
showed Roosevelt polling fifty-five
per cent, Dewey as per rea-. II
the election Roosevelt won wi h
approximately 81 per cent.
There are many Ifs" of course
in any trial heat'' such as to-
days. For one thing, no one
|hpows whether Dewey will aetu-
be the COL. nominee In