Evening star., 1947-01-03

OF the American merchant marine.
| This does not mean they think
we are going to have strong, active
merchant feet during the years
Iahead. They are resigned to the
knowledge we shall have weak
one. Their apparent optimism
grows out of the thought it will not
necessarily be as numerically weak
as an outsider, looking over the
prospects, might suppose.
In October, 1945, according to the
National Federation OF American
Shipping, the United States was
actively employing 100000 dead
weight tons worth of shipping, which
means a feet of about 4,300 ve- sells
capable of carrying 100000 long
tons. Now, says the federation, we
are using about 30,000,000 dead
weight tons.
Tankers Included.
It expects the dehation of our
feet to speed up as foreign competi-
ton returns to world trade routes.
Assuming nothing further is done to
help the merchant marine, the fed
Grafton thinks we shall end up,
after this year, with about II, 1,000, 900
deadweight tons, or 1,100 ships.
This is exactly what we had before
the war.
A number of points in the predic-
ton provide food fer further
thought.
In the first place, the 100000
ton figure is based on the theory
that nearly half the fleet-about
$40 ships-will be oil tankers. IN
1889, less than 400 of our merchant
ships were tankers. Assuming the
federation is right, we shall come
even less close to having a we'll
balanced merchant marine than be-
fore the war.
Secondly, the federation includes
in its total figure 100000 tons Of
abnormal" military shipping. Much
of this will doubtless be withdrawn
within the next few years.
Finally, the federation thinks we
can keep 100000 deadweight tons
about 300 ships-in foreign trade.
In the opinion of many close OBJ
servers, this is an extremely opti-
mistic estimate.
Action Could Change Picture.
Trade with such non-contiguous
American territories as Hawaii.
Puerto Rico and Alaska may alb
sorb go ships, the federation believes.
Along and between our coasts, only
SO ships are expected to remain in
operation. This domestic fleet, with
$50 ships before the war, was the
backbone of our merchant marine.
These predicted strengths are
based on the assumption no action
is taken to improve our maritime
outlook. The federation Is hopeful
some action will be taken. 1t thinks
If the shippers were to receive some
relief by way of rate adjustments,
and if labor were to approach the
maritime wage problem in what the
federation calls a more realistic"
spirit, we might be able to keep an
active peacetime feet of around
400 ships, about 100000 dead
weight tons.
It would be realistic for labor to
ease its pressure on the present ex-
traordinarily high maritime wages,
the shippers say, because of the fact
that small merchant marine in
evitably means few sea-going jobs,
About 250,00o men were employed
in mercahnt marine service during
the war peak, The predicted post
war fleet of II 100000 tons would pro-
vide little more than $4,000 Jobs.
Government Seeks Buyers.
Meanwhile, as the American ship
ping industry plots its difficult
course into the future, the Govern
ment is working against time on the
problem of disposing advantageous
ly Of our great wartime shipping
fleet, the largest in world history.
All but a handful of the $780,
odd ships in the war fleet were un-
der state control, having been built,
requisitioned or chartered by the
Government. The Government
now is selling what ships it can
to United States companies. Ships
that cannot be sold here are being
sold abroad, or chartered here or
abroad.
Those which cannot be sold or
chartered are candidates for the
reserve fleet, in which we shall try
to preserve much of our war ship
ping against the time when we may
need it in some possible future ma
tional emergency. Those which
cannot be used even in the reserve
fleet eventually will be scrapped.
The time element is important
in this program. Temporarily, the
Maritime Commission has about
1,400 ships, operated by shipping
companies under general agency
agreements. The commission au-a
thority to keep these ships sail
ing, and it's access to funds en-
abling it to do so, come to an end
next February %.
Because our shipping companies
have been so slow in getting back
into operation, particularly in the
domestic field, the commission now
hopes to persuade the new Congress
to enable it to hang onto these ships
for specific number of months be-
yond February %.
Hope to Cushion Blow.
There is no serious talk in Off
cial maritime circles about the Gov
ernment's staying on indefinitely in
the shipping business. But there
is awareness of the fact that for
1t to step out at this particular
Juncture would amount to throw
ing a large monkey wrench into a
machine which is already threaten
ing to fall apart.
1t seems doubtful, however, that
Congress, swamped as it will be
with important legislation, anaact
In time to provide the needed ex-
i ~ +