Evening star., 1947-04-10
" HE A.soeicted Press

BY HE Assoeicfed Press
Most economists who talk on the
subject expect that the current busi-
ness boom In the United States will
have a setback by midyear.
The period to follow can be q
healthful readjustment. a recession
or depression. A recession could be
mild or severe. brief or prolonged.
With prospects good for at least
three more months of the present
boom, as indicated In the first article
of this series, few economists are
discussing a depression as such.
Some say no recession is necessary
liz a direct attack on high prices Is
made now. The present high price
/ level is one of the chief concerns OF
all economists.
Truman Asks Cooperation.
President Truman has called on
industry to cooperate In reducing
prices, saying he hoped 1t would not
20 whole hog for profits" Secretary
of the Treasury Snyder told a news
conference recently that prices are
out of line" and that he was mot too
optimistic" about them. He said that
labor must not make over-demands
or they will force prices up"
The Presidents Economic Advisory
Council, headed by DR.. Edwin G..
Nourse, is working especially hard
on the price situation, which 1t re-
CARDS as serious, and the problem
has been passed on to the Cabinet,
which is giving it special attention.
Many retailers are calling for
lower prices. Jack I. Straus, presi-
dent OF Macy's in New York, the
worlds largest department store, said
last week that prosperity and full
employment could not be maintained
at present price levels, and that "un-
less prices are lowered, we believe
that a business recession Is probable. !"
"Short- Term Confidence" Spurred.
The National Industrial Confer
ence Boards publication Business
Record for March says that Short
term confidence seems to be increas-
ing as the recession. which has been
momentarily expected, fails to ma
terialize, but warnings Of approach
ing disaster still persist" It says
that these warnings are generally
directed against continuation OF the
present high prices"
George Renard, Of the National
Association OF Purchasing Agents;
John D. Clark, of the Presidents
Council of Economic Advisors, and
Louis J. Paradise, of the Commerce
Department, all are quoted to sup
port the view that prices are too
high.
Business leaders In general are
more optimistic than the economists.
F. D. Newbury, vice president OF
Westinghouse Electric, says 1947 will
continue to be big year IN busi-
ness and that We may expect only
q mild recession In 1913 extending
possibly into 1949, but no serious or
prolonged depression before the late
1e50s."
Economists Views Summarized.
Following is q summary OF the
views of some Of the economists
who have been studying the prob
lem, as expressed to the Associated
Press:
Lewis Schellbach, chief econo-
mist of Standard and Poor's Corp,
leading statistical, research and
advisory firm-the second quarter
Of 1947 is likely to be . boom pc
riod like the first quarter, but also
is likely to be remembered "as the
beginning Of the most widely adver-
tised recession on record" Retail
sales and building contracts awarded
"are among the principal barometers
to watch for signs that the trend
is turning downward" and there
are already tentative indications In
both that excessively high prices are
to exert their normal depressing
influence on effective demand
Leo Cherne, executive secretary
Of the Research Institute Of Amer
lea, serving business, Government
and educational nstitutions- There
will be few apparent changes In
the business picture during this Sec
ond quarter But the portents OF
the coming difficulties will come
into full and public view" The price
trend in primary markets, which
threatens to aggravate the prob
lens of these next three months"
Is possibly the most serious de-
velopment."
Forced Liquidations" Seen.
Price adjustments will have to
work their way up from the re-
tail counter, where consumer resist
anee will assert itself forcefully.'
Not long after midyear there viii