Evening star., 1947-02-24

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atom bomb devices will destroy 80 per
cent of the bombs before they can do
any damage. Then we may hope to
escape defeat even if 10000 bombs are
launched against us. But even vic
torious war of this kind will kill many
millions of our citizens.
1t would be more complete defense
to disperse our cities. With an enormous
effort which would profoundly change
our economic and social lives we could
achieve this measure of safety. Then
few thousand Hiroshima bombs could
kill only per cent of our population.
Bigger Bombs.
Actually 1t is quite unSound to limit
our attention to atomic bombs of the
present type. These bombs are the re-
suits of first attempts and they were
developed under wartime pressure The
paramount consideration had to be:
which of the developments promised
earliest results. In a subject as new as
atomic power We must be prepared for
startling developments. It has been
repeatedly stated that future bombs
may easily surpass those used in the
last war by a factor of thousand. I
share this belief.
One consequence of such bigger bombs
would be that instead of 3 or 4 square
miles 300 or 400 square miles might
be devastated at single blow. But such
bigger bombs may prove to be even more
dangerous in an indirect way.
The radioactivity produced by the
Bikini bombs was detected within about
one week in the United States. In the
meantime the westerly winds had swept
the air mass from Bikini to this country
The activity when it reached our shores
was weak, completely harmless, but still
detachable. The same activity, if present
even in many thousand times as great
amounts would not impair living organ
isms. But there is threshold beyond
which radioactivity has lethal effects.
This threshold is somewhat different for
humans, and for various kinds of animal
and plant life. Sufficiently strong radio
activity will kill all living tissue.
If the activity liberated at Bikini were
multiplied by a factor OF a hundred
thousand or million, and if it were to
be released off our Pacific Coast, the
whole of the United States would be
endangered. That the enormous amounts
of activity just mentioned can in actual
ity be released at some future date is
by no means an established fact; but
it is much more than a fantastic pos
,sibility. If such great quantities of
activity should become available, an
enemy could make life hard or even
impossible for us without delivering a
single bomb into our territory.
One limitation to such kind Of an
attack Is the effect of these gases on
the attacker himself The radioactive
products will eventually drift over his
country, too. Radioactive gases, how
ever, decay within finite time, and If
sufficient time were to pass before the
gases reached the country of the at
tacker the radioactive products may
have lost their dangerous potency. 1t
is to be noted that different radioactive
products have different rates of decay.
The attacker is, therefore, in a position
to choose the radioactive products best
suited to his attack; with the proper
choice he could ensure that his victim
would be seriously damaged by them,
and that they would have decayed by
the time they reached his own country
Naturally this is not easy, but under the
circumstances, within the realm of
possibility.
The advance OF the radioactive air
mass can easily be followed and some
countermeasures may be taken Gas
masks may be useful but will probably
not be sufficient. Shelters provided
with careful system of air filters will
probably answer the purpose better.
But what fraction of our population
can we provide with such elaborate
protection? And in what shape will we
find our flora and fauna-on which we
depend for our livelihood-When we
emerge from the shelters?
Mans Survival in Danger.
It is not even impossible to imagine
that the effects of an atomic war fought
with greatly perfected weapons and
pushed by utmost determination will
endanger the survival of man.
To avoid misunderstanding I should
repeat statement which has been made
several times during the past year.
There Is no danger that any atomic
bomb of present or future design will
ever blow up the earth, the sea or the
atmosphere. This can be stated with
all the assurance of which science and
common sense are capable. If atomic
bombs will lead to disaster, it will not
be by an accidental catastrophe but by
means of careful planning and design
1t is too early to say that the chief
danger of atomic bombs will be due to
the radioactive by-products. The dan
ger arising from the radioactivity has
however, become evident by observations
which have been made at widely sep
arated places and which have been
published by independent observers
The tolerance limits of living tissue for
radioactivity are well known. We have
here method of destruction which We
cannot help noticing. This specific
possibility may help us to realize more
clearly the probable consequence Of an
atomic war for our civilization and the
possible consequence for the whole
human race