Evening star., 1947-04-03
|Biu 4 Minister'S Turn
To Minor Points in
German treaty Talks 5
By kewbold Noyes j.
ssor Staff Correspondent.

met this afternoon In an atm0S-
phere of deepening gloom to see
what they could do with some OF
the minor aspects of the prob
lem Of Germany.
Developing minor points Of agree
ment Is no longer a. side issue here,
For despite lot of rather silly
comment In the last few days to
the effect that this conference is
just now really beginning. the truth
seems to be that, from here on in,
| it is finishing.
This, of course, is only-and can
only be-tlle writer's opinion. No
one engaged in important bargain
| ing can afford to admit openly that
he doesn't expect to get what he is
arguing for. 1t is not being ad-
mitted openly here.
But everything points to the con-
clusion that the minister's failed to
get anywhere in their closed door
session on key German economic
problems two days ago. And that
| failure can logically be expected to
mark a turning point in the con-
| ference,s objectiyes and expecta-
tions.
| No Accord on Overall Issue.
In about go hours of plain talk, in
other words, the ministers seem to
have established beyond reasonable
doubt that they cannot agree-at
present-on an OVERALL solution, to
the problem of how to deal with
occupied Germany, let alone how to
draft German peace treaty.
| If this is the case, and am sure
| it is, their job in the time remaining
here is to try to pry away from
the main body of that overall prob
lem the points on which they can
agree, and to put these agreements
| into directives to the Allied Control
Council.
If the ministers adjourn on this
note somewhere around the end Of
next week, it will not, OF course
mean that these negotiations are
discontinued. Their deputies ano
the control council will be instructed
| to carry on in an attempt to imple-
ment agreements in principle
reached here. Certainly, too, before
closing shop in Moscow, the minis
ters will make date for another
try a few months hence.
In politics and diplomacy, almost
ANYTHING is always possible. It's not
therefore, inconceivable that at the
last moment here the Russians could
suddenly capitulate to our view
miles apart as we are today. Con-
ceivably we could capitulate to
theirs. The personal, human factor
is always at work under the reason
able surface. 1t has happened be-
fore that O headcold, or a good
nights sleep, has changed the
course of history.
But lacking a crystal ball one can
only judge the likely course of
events on the basis of what is reas-
onably probable. In this case the
reasonable probability is that the
ministers are going to need a few
more months to ponder this busl-
ness before they can agree to move
to compromise solution.
Secretary of State Marshall clear
ly showed yesterday that he is re-
signed to the idea that the problem
of Germany's provisional govern
ment, at least, cannot be settled at
this session. He urged his COL
leagues to pass this question back to
the Allied Control Council.
If plan could be agreed on In
the control council, he indicated,
it could be adopted by the four gov
ernments separately or at next For
eign Ministers session.
Economic Accord Is Key.
It was the farthest he has yet gone
in expressing his view as to the
probable limitations of what can be
accomplished here. Why is Gen.
Marshall so sure agreement on the
provisional government for Germany
,annot be reached here that he is
clready prepared to pass over the
natter at this session? The min
5ters have not shown themselves
lopelessly deadlocked on this gov
arnment issue. No-the answer is
that there is no possibility of reach
ing political agreement about Ger
many until an economic agreement
has been reached. This means an
agreement cutting the Gordian knot
in which such issues as reparations,
level of industry, economic unity and
an import-export program are now
inextricably intertwined.
The extent to which everything
else is dependent on an economic
solution was clearly brought out yes
terday. The ministers agreed at the
outset that they could not even talk
about provisional government prob
lens without making the whole dis
cussion conditional on Germany's
being treated as an economic unit.
They might just as we'll have made
it conditional on agreement on repa-
rations or the level of industry or an
import-export program. For each of
these issues is another twist in the
same knot.
Obviously it is not going to be easy
for the ministers to pry anything
very substantial loose from this all
embracing German economic prob
lem-to isolate and agree on any but
the most unimportant issues.
1t looks now as if agreement on
the Austrian treaty, for which there
were high hopes when the confer
ence opened, may also depend on
German economic solution In
view of Soviet Foreign Minister
Molotov's unwillingness to go deep
| ly into matter of German assets in
Austria-key to the treaty-it seems
likely that he wants to bargain on
Austria only in the light of what
kind of bargain he had made re-
/ garding Germany.
/ There is some feeling here that