Evening star., 1947-02-24
Atomic Weapons in War
Imagination Falters in Trying to Measure Danger
That Might Affect the Survival of Man

lndC NIlSnL AHeCC
SRoSe 1 h sust p 3, M Hdvasa Bge Ts.9 Of
an Outstanding nuclear physcist)
In the Second World War a great
variety of startling scientific achieve
ments were put to use by the Americans,
the British. the Germans and the Rus
slams. We may mention the fast, pene-
trating metal jets (bazooka), the radar,
the rockets, including the jet planes and
robot planes, and finally the atomic
bomb. In many cases these weapons
proved to be decisive. The best known
examples are the role of radar in the
battle of England, the surprise effect
of Russian rockets at the counteroffen-
sive at Stalingrad, the near disaster
caused by the German W. bombs and
the speedy termination of the war after
the bombing of Hiroshima and Ma
gasaki. The corresponding scientific
developments were encouraged by the
military authorities and the results were
utilized at the earliest possible oppor-
tunity.
New Weapons?
Interest in military applications Of
science has, if anything, increased since
VI day among politicians, the leaders
of the armed forces and the general
population. In the long run this Sus-
tanned interest will result in this country
and abroad in more powerful and prob
ably quite unexpected types of weapons.
There is no doubt that in any future
war science will play paramount role.
Application of science to problems of
war has given rise to trend which, to
me, seems unmistakable. It Is much
easier to invent instruments of destruc
ton than methods of defense. In no
other case has this become more clear
than in the field of atomic developments.
Defenses Absent.
We have succeeded in constructing
the most spectacular machine Of de-
struction in human history. We have
tried during years of uncertainty and
desperate suspense to find ways OF de-
Tending ourselves should our enemies
develop atomic bombs before we can do
so. We did not succeed. Atomic attack
would have found our cities practically
without defense.
There arises the possibility of future
war in which each combatant can wipe
out his opponent; in which the cities,
the industries and the population of
country may be wrecked and only its
army will continue to function for a
short time, time long enough to do
similar irreparable damage to the other
party.
Atomic bombs are not the only danger;
perhaps they are not even the greatest
danger. But having thought more about
atomic warfare than about other de-
velopments I shall attempt to give an
estimate of the possibilities of attack
and defense in this particular case.
What One Bomb Did.
The fact that almost hundred thou
sand men, women and children were
killed at Hiroshima gives proper idea
of the horrible power of atomic bombs
that can be produced today. OF course,
the element of surprise and the lack
of .countermeasures contributed to this
high figure of casualties. If one reads
about the events following the bombing
one is struck by the picture of fires
raging unopposed, wounds remaining
unattended, sick men killing themselves
with the exertions of helping their fell
lows. If Hiroshima had had more fire.
breaks, more fire-fghting equipment,
more medical men and supplies outside
the city in sheltered places. the damage.
the, suffering and the toll in human
lives would have been less.
This, in a way, may seem encourag-
ing because we have at least some way
in which to prepare for an atomic
attack. But what little comfort this
thought gives US will vanish if we
remember that new kinds of bombs or
other methods of destruction will come
as no less surprise than did the blind
ing flash over Hiroshima. We have,
indeed, established a precedent justify
ing the use of untried methods of
destruction without specific warning
What Thousands viii Do.
For the moment let us confine our
attention to bombs of the present type
Let us assume that large number, say
1000 or 10000, will be available. Let
us also assume that some elementary
countermeasures will have been carried
out. Some of the population will be
removed from the most congested areas.
Essential industries will be dispersed
The vital organs of government, of
rescue work, of antiaircraft or antirocket
measures and the main forces of coun-
terattack will be placed in the sites
which are best secured. In such an
event our country could survive heavy
atomic bombardment and win the war
1t is hardly possible to compare the
effect of an atomic bomb with the effect
of certain tonnage of TINT. Both the
old high explosives and atomic bombs
cause damage by blast. But atomic
bombs also destroy by flash burns and
by causing radiation disease. AS very
crude guess (and I think moderate
one) I shall set the damage OF an
atomic bomb equal to the effect OF a
thousand tons of TINT.
If this assumption is made, then the
amount Of high explosives dropped on
Germany during the last war is equiva-
lent to little more than 1000 atomic
bombs The bombardment left German
cities in ruins but was not sufficient to
win the war. We may make the opti-