Evening star., 1947-09-12
Polls Won't. Dictate,
But May Influence,
6. 0. P. Nomination
Delegates BosieoIIy
DESTROYS Of Winner,
CoIumnist Notes
By David Laurence

There's one event the public.
opinion polls are not likely to fore
cast by asking the voters and that's
the probable selection of a Republi-
can candidate for the Presidency.
This Is because the rank and file
OF the voters do not do the choosing
The process Of picking a nominee
is primarily the task of delegates
usually those picked by existing
political organizations.
Senator Taft and Gov. Dewey
know this all too we'll. That's Nhv
they have been swinging around the
country talking to the local politi-
cal leaders. For the pre-convention
contest Is on in earnest and there
are only remote contingencies which
could bring about the nomination
OF a newcomer to politics, such as
Gen. Eisenhower or Gen. Mac
Arthur.
The Republican nomination lies
today between Gov. Dewey and Sem
ators Taft or Vandenberg. One of
tnese will be the COP nominee un-
less Republican prospects have sunk
10 such low point by June, 1s4S,
tnat, In sheer desperation, the party
graSpS for well-knoWn name and
popular personality like Gen. Eisen-
mower as last resort.
Polls Can Be Important.
Public-opinion polls can, however,
play an important part in influence
Ing a substantial minority of the
prospective delegates to the con-
ventlon. Thus Senator Tafts
chances today are reflected by the
roper poll to be less than those of
either Gov. Dewey or Senator VAN
oenoerg when the poll takers ask
now the voter would cast his pallot
Tor any one Of these three as against
President Truman.
The basic desire Of the delegates
10 Tor q candidate who can win.
Ii they make up their minds that
certain man cannot win they may
go TO the convention pledged to
MIN but they are then ready to
switch almost Immediately to some
one else who they think can win.
Ihus the special election in Penn
aylvanla this week which showed
such an unprecedented margin for
the Republican Party gives great
nope to the Taft supporters. If a
party is stronger than any pros
pectlVe nominee, it means that al
most anyone satisfactory to the
local political leaders can be chosen
Senator Taft has more real
strength among the party leaders
and organizations than Gov. Dewey
This Is because Mr.. Taft is looked
upon as closer to the conservative
side while Gov. Dewey is regarded
as opportunistically liberal. The
latter characteristic is perhaps more
OF a vote-getting factor after
convention than it is a delegate
gatherer before the convention is
held.
Vandenberg Favored.
The Republican party leaders by
and large, have, moreover, a strong
er attachment for Senator Vanden-
berg than for Gov. Dewey. If the
election looks like walkaway, SEN
ator Taft will be nominated. If he
can't be, the Taft strength will 20
to Senator Vandenberg and if the
need is for standard bearers of the
so-called liberal" variety, then a
DeWey-Stassen ticket would seem to
be indicated.
Where does this leave a dark horse
like Gen. Eisenhower or Gen. Mac
Arthur? Only If President Truman,s
popularity curve in the polls shows
that he Is way out in front as against
Sen. Taft, Gov. Dewey or Sen. Van
denberg will Draft Eisenhower"
movement get real momentum.
General Eisenhower has friends in
every State and undoubtedly would
be given as powerful support as Mr..
Willkie got in 1910 If the feeling
became widespread that neither Mr.
Taft nor Mr.. Vandenberg nor Mr..
Dewey could possibly win.
The Pennsylvania special election
doesn't give much encouragement
to the idea that draft of an out
slider will be needed. Most Republi-
can leaders will take that election
to mean they can proceed as usual
to name the man the local party
chiefs really want-someone who has
been in politics and knows the
ropes.
Much can happen between now
AND June. 1948, to alter the situa-
tion. II in the next nine months
the Republicans do not succeed in
disintegrating the political strength
and potentiality of President Tru-
man, they may be in the market for
q well-known name after all, even
though the name carries no political
background.
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