The Daily Alaska empire., 1947-11-11
Our Export Outlook
Washington Post)

Sir Stafford Cripps has banned further imports of American tobacco and intends to cut down food i'm ports so as to save about 264 million dollars yearly Coincdent with this announcement word that Sweden is preparing to cut off imports of United States films automobiles nylons and pastcs owing to near exhaustion of her foreign exchange and gold reserves Thus the pressure to reduce buying of goods is spreading from country to country and be- coming intensified while we are preparing to grappe with the problem of how to satisfy imperative foreign demands for basic foodstuffs and raw materials
 Appraisal of the outlook for export trade and the effect of exporting upon ,domestic economy and price level must allow for these contrary developments. On the hand faced by shrnkage of foreign buying of various good of less essential nature; the other hand by abnormally high demand Cor rather need) for foods and other senal articles. Already complaints are arising about the pricedepressng effect of the British tobacco ban on markets in which British buying has been heavy. At the same time the public is aroused by exorbitant wheat prices largely attributable to Government buy ing for export Fortunately, the exportabe items of which there is world shortage. such as wheat coal steel and industrial machinery are, the Krug report notes, limited in number, though because of their importance in economy efforts to satisfy export demands create serious specific supply and price prob lens that call for careful planning
 Dollar savings effected by foreign countries
 through reduced buying of nonessenials-obacco, for instance-wl net relieve the pressure our scarce
 
 tinguished from the financial problems connected with foreign aid although it is obviously desirable from
 the viewpoint of buying countries to effect such economies. There is good to conclude, how ever that the enforced economies made necessary by world wide dollar shortages will result in general contraction of export trade during the coming year if advance large credits finance essen tia purchases.
 Thomas c. Blaisden, Assistant to the Secretary of Commerce. is of the opinion that without further appropriations from Congress the drop in exports from the level attained during the first half of 1947 might be almost sharp the decline which cured in 1921 in relation to 1920" In article pub lshed by the New York Journal of Commerce MT Blaisdel says: While it is impossible to make any precise estimates in this difficult field available n formation suggests that additional foreign assist ance of much five billion dollars to be made available for the placement of export orders in 1948 exports during that year will not reach the level exports during the first half of 1947 Present ndi cations that the level might be as much as 10 to 20 per cent below that rate If this forecast based on certain informed assumptions is correct gen. eral pressure the price structure and general material shortages because of our export program lie ahead On the contrary, even with fairly generous foreign aid plan a falling off in foreign buying of many categories of goodshence relaxation of price pressure-is in prospect.