Evening star., 1947-09-28
Foreign Aid Estimate
Includes Trade Ties
With Red Satellites
By the Associoted Press

WcSCeII cuIOpc UdSCu 1tS 9A1,f1O,-
100000, four-year postwar recovery
plan on renewal of close trade ties
with Soviet satellites rs well as on
large scale aid from the United
States.
The 50,000-word Volume I of the
full report on the plan was released
last night by the State Department,
a digest having been made public
last week. 1t noted that the Eastern
European nations which boycotted
the Paris conference where the pro-
gram was drafted have cut off most
of their food and other shipments
to the 16 participants in the meeting.
But it added:
1T is reasonable to expect that
the westward flow of food and agri-
cultural and forestry products will
gradually be resumed.
"A substantial and steady resump-
ton of Eastern European food,
feeding -Stuffs, and timber supplies
is assumed in this report; the pre-
war flow of cereals from Eastern
Europe is assumed to be restored
by 1851 and the supplies of timber
are assumed to reach rs per cent of
prewar by 1851"
Other Assumptions Given.
Other assumptions, which the
blueprint acknowledged to be un-
certainties, included:
l. The return of reasonably fav-
orable" World conditions.
2. Stability of American prices at
around the level of July, 1947.
g. A steady rise of exports from
Western Europe to the United States
from $850,00O, 900 next year to ST.
480 100000 in 1851. A rise in sales
to the rest of the American CONT
nent from $1,310,000,00O to $780,
000, 600.
The Paris conference set no spe-
ciflc figure on the amount of aid
required from this country, but noted
that sin the last analysis the ex-
ternal means of recovery can in
largest measure only come from the
United States, which has by its as
sistance in the last two years already
rescued Europe from collapse and
chaos"
To help meet the $22, ,440, 900 900
the program contemplates in total
outside aid, the 16-nation Western
Europe bloc assumed" that from
the World Bank and other sources
| might come as much as $3,11O,O0O 900.
U. S. To Supply Remainder.
BY implication, the $19,330, 600, 900
remainder was left To the United
States to supply, minus such help
as Latin America and Canada might
extend.
The 1948 need was put at $8,04O,-
100000. Americas share would be
$7,120, ,O0o, 900.
Without mentioning stop-gap aid
in so many words, the report said
many of the 16 countries already
have had to cut essential fuel and
raw material imports and reduce
food buying ito a point at which
industrial efforts can no longer be
sustained at the level required to
enable recovery to take place"
For its part, Western Europe pro-
posed to continue per capita food
consumption below the 1934-38 level
undertake to step up production of
all kinds, and to press negotiations
for lowering of tariff barriers and
setting up customs union.
These production goals were set
for attainment by the target date
of December i, 1851, when it was
calculated Europe should be back
on its economic feet:
l. Restoration of prewar bread
grain and other cereal production;
large increases in sugar and pota-
toes; some increases in oils and fats
with expansion of livestock de-
pending upon feed available.
+ 2. A coal output of 584 900 00C
tons-a gain of one-third over the
present level and 3o,OOO,OO0 tons
above 1888.
3. Expansion of electricity OUTPUT
by nearly 70,0o0.oOO,0O0 kilowatt
hours and generating capacity by
25,000,000 kilowatts = two-thirds
above prewar.
4. An increase in oil refining ca
pacity of 17,oOo,0O tons, to 21a times
the prewar level.
! 5. An increase of crude steel
production to 55,0OOo0O tons, 20
per cent above 1898.
6 Is per cent expansion of in
land transportation facilities over
1898.
l. Restoration of prewar merchant
fleets.
8. Supplying from European pro-
duction of most of the capital
equipment needed for these expan-