Evening star., 1947-11-30
Our Atomic VuInerubiIity

1t is self lf-delusion of the worst kind for
any American to imagine that our current
leadership in A-weapons guarantees to the
United States lasting military superiority
over all other nations. Undoubtedly we
have an important advantage now, but it
is fieeting. To suppose otherwise is to be
dangerously blind to the realities
The latest authoritative warning on that
score comes in the form of special study
prepared for the research and development
division of the Army Departments gen.
eral staff. Conducted by DR.. Ralph e.
Lapp, 4 nuclear physicist and former
member of the division, the study makes
special point Of knocking down the wholly
mistaken but hard-to-kill idea that we can
somehow hold on forever to our atomic
fact is, as DR.. Lapp declares, that any major
power, If it makes the effort, can produce
effective A-weapons within fifteen years,
perhaps in less than ten." That is con-
servative estimate; other experts believe
the time margin to be much narrower.
This means, of course, that in the rela-
lively near future the world will be caught
up in history's deadliest armaments race
unless the United Nations establishes a
genuinely effective system of international
control. AS the Lapp study shows, "a typi-
cal American city"-like typical city any
where abroad-will then be as vulnerable
to total destruction as Hiroshima or Naga-
Saki. Thus, an A-bomb exploding over it
at height of $500 feet (Nagasakis went
of at 1900 feet, according to the study
would cause at least 100000 casualties,
including $4,000 dead. Unless shielded by
thick brick or concrete, all persons within
a mile-plus radius of the explosions center
would be exposed to radioactivated death.
Within the same area every building would
be obliterated or nearly 50, and heavy dam
away, tapering off to moderate at three
miles. But in addition to this whole areas
untouched by the blast probably would be
burned out by "an enormously destructive
fire storm"
What safeguards can be taken against
this danger? In DR.. Lapp's opinion, 'it is
useless as well as economically unsound to
try to convert our cities into decentralized
underground strongholds," and there is
practically no chance of developing de-
fense capable of intercepting all atomic
bombs, or super deadly radioactive gases,
before delivery. His views in this respect,
and his findings in. general are not new.
Essentially they are the same as those
contained in the Hiroshima -Nagasaki re-
port made last year by the United States
Strategic Bombing Survey. Partial de-
Capitalization where feasible, long-range
disaster-relief planning, blueprinting sys-
tenn of civilian shelters and fireproofing
the interiors of our industrial buildings are
among some of the Surveys recommends
tions, but the Survey itself has described
them as "palliating" measures at best.
They would not mean great deal in the
event of total, sustained attack.
In sum, like the Bombing Survey and
similar expert analyses, DR.. Lapps study
concludes that the only real defense
against A-weapons is rigid international
policing and the prevention of major wars
forever. But up to now, alone among the
great powers, Russia has blocked control.
Unless and until it changes its mind, there
fore, there is only one thing that we Can
do: Remembering that we have no lasting
monopoly we must strive constantly to
keep ahead in the atomic arms race. It is
not happy course to follow, but present
circumstances demand it, and it may have
the virtue at least of staying the hand of
potential aggressors.