Evening star., 1947-01-12
Demand for New Cars
| Hard 10 Estimate Due
To Duplicate Orders
BY the A..oeiotsd Pres.

DETROIT, Jan. 11--With indica-
tions that the "car-at-any-price
market is drying up rapidly, the au-
tomobile industry's general sales
chiefs are checking and re-checking
their accumulation of untitled or
ders.
Authoritative estimates place the
total OF unified orders for new pas
senger cars at more than $500, 600.
That figure is more than the indus
try assembly lines can turn out at
capacity operations this year. and
much has been made of this fact in
all attempts to forecast the new car
market for l947.
What the sales chiefs do not know
and cannot find out IS exactly how
many of the orders are Implications.
The number is large and presents a
problem to the merchandising heads
of the industry in any attempt to
appraise accurately the actual mar
.ket.
Thus far, according to many in
dustry experts, cancellation OF dup
licate orders has not been on a large
scale. The duplicate orders, as a
matter of fact, have been major
source Of supply to used car dealers
offering new or almost new 1916
models at premium prices.
New Models Re-Sold Quickly.
Some of the many new models in
used car lots came from individuals
who bought with no intention of
keeping them but solely to turn
them over to the used car dealers.
Other cars with comparatively little
mileage on the speedometers were
purchased by the car lot operators
from persons who could not resist
the tempting prices offered.
The manufacturing division OF the
industry, of course, has no direct
dealings with the used car mer-
chants as such. At the same time
the new car merchandiser also has
an interest in the demand for used
automobiles. To avoid freezing q
lot of capital he has to cash In with
a minimum Of delay on cars ac-
cepted as trade-ins.
Surveys of 1916 car merchandising
show that trade-ins were involved
in large part Of the new-car sales.
In many instances the new-car
buyer with q trade-in was able to
get delivery much more quickly than
the individual without one.
Yet the used-car market still Is
far from adequately stocked. The
number of cars reaching the lots
as a result Of trade-ins on new
vehicles-like new-car production
and sales-has been only small
part of the normal volume. What
ever lag may have developed In
used-car demand has been due to
the higher prices at which the
vehicles are held.
Buyers Market Predicted.
Whether a buyers market for
new cars will develop this summer
still is problematical, although all
the sales chiefs in their meetings
with dealers keep pounding away
at the assertion, "It will come sooner
than you think" The truth un-
doubtedly is that the sales chiefs are
trying to forestall the lethargy they
fear may grow out of delivering
cars with no selling effort.
II the buyers market does come
this year it will be the result of
higher price levels and not because
everybody who wants car has been
supplied
Certainly the fewer than 4,000, 900
passenger cars that will have been
delivered from early 1912 up until
next July will not have made much
of an impression on the accumu-
lated backlog. Before the war re-
placement demand alone absorbed
approximately 100000 new cars
In five wears