Evening star., 1947-07-14

elecClOn cast MS vote IOr Cne Iepup-
lican nominee. Likewise, a dissent
ing Democrat might disapprove Of
Mr. Truman's course at the moment
but would not desert his party in an
election.
The Gallup polls have always
drawn a distinction between the
answers to the two questions and
usually the party strength is sew
eral points below a popularity curve
poll.
But today President Truman Is
weaker than his party. His popu-
larity poll has dropped from &C last
March to 54 in July, while the Demo-
cratic party-strength poll is now at
S. per cent Of the estimated total
vote Of the country-a drop of 2
points from the 1947 high reached
in May.
Gain From Labor Offset.
Why is Mr.. Truman's popularity
dropping? Undoubtedly the two
vetoes recently have hurt him con-
siderably in the political sense. Thus,
while making slight gains among
labor voters, the drop in other cate
gories has been substantial. Mr..
Truman has thought he would gain
politically by his vetoes but he Is
losing more votes in certain groups
than he is gaining in others.
Another chance is to be given the
Democratic Party in the next 10
days to pull Mr.. Truman out OF
hole on the tax bill. If he vetoes
it and the Senate fails to override
the veto, the Democratic Party gen.
orally will feel the i'll effects next
year.
Mr., Truman has no logical argu-
ment now with which to veto the
second tax bill. Chairman Millik1n
of the Senate Finance Committee
has Just made public the official
data gathered by the Joint Congress
sional Committee on internal rev.
enue by nonpolitical statisticians.
These figures show that, even after
allowing $500, 100000 as the cost
of the tax reduction provided in the
new bill, approximately $500, ,00o,-
600 of surplus will be available on
July 1, 1s48, for reduction OF the
national debt.
When government has surplus
of nearly $1,000, 600 900, as indicated
by the latest figures, and is able
to put aside for debt reduction vir-
tually $4 for every 81 that is used
in tax reduction, it is apparent
that such a governments finances
are. in q healthy state.
Truman Embarrasses Party.
The Democratic Party in Congress
has been embarrassed by MIR. Tru-
mans mistakes as revealed in his
first veto message. He said it was
the wrong kind Of tax reduction,
at the wrong time" Congress, with
a heavy majority in both houses,
now has yielded oh the matter of
timing and has asked that the tax
reduction take effect next January
for the calendar year 1948.
Will Mr.. Truman now say 1948 Is
the wrong time2 And, if so, will he
insist on draining out of the pockets
of the taxpayers $1,000, ,000, 900 more
than is expended? This is one way
to produce a real depression. Due
to various factors of stimulating
nature, particularly the heavy ex-
port demand, it looks now as if the
economic readjustment which has
been predicted will be deferred until
1913. It will be too late then to
pass a tax bill to overcome the
def1ation.
Actually the absence of tax reduc-
tion will produce a serious defiation.
Mr.. Truman is gambling on the
possibility of riding through 1948
without a recession and without tax
reduction This ignores entirely the
psychological effect on the voters of
the dog In the manger" policy
which says that because some tax
payers may get little more saving
than others, nobody shall have any
tax reductions. That is the wrong
kind Of political judgment at the
wrong time.
Polls little later this year may
be expected to reflect a further drop
in the Truman popularity and in
Democratic Party strength if the
Democrats in the Senate fail to
override the coming veto on the tax
reduction bill.
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