Evening star., 1946-09-27
Catt|emen' S Response
May Upset Truman's S
Meat Supply Forecast
By Ovid Mortin
Associated Press Form Writer

Cattlemen of the Midwestern
grasslands and the Western ranges
actually will determine the accuracy
of President Truman's forecast of
early relief from the acute meat
shortage.
These farmers and they alone
hold the power to boost supplies of
meat in the near future. They are
the only livestock producers who
have any appreciable number of
animals ready for slaughter.
Hogs won't be available in any
volume before early December, and
grain-fattened cattle won't be ready
for market in any sizable numbers
before late winter.
On the other hand, farmers who
grow and fatten cattle on grass
have, near-record herds. Some of
their stock, however is lean and
underweight and unfit for slaughter.
But some is fat and suitable for
slaughter.
This is the time of the year when
grass-fed cattle normally start roll7
a4AS w mai hCb.
Forecast Based on Custom.
Mr.. Truman's prediction of an
early improvement in meat supplies
made in statement issued at his
news conference neutrality-suspicious.
ly was based on an expectation that
cattlemen will follow the normal
marketing pattern.
But whether they do is a matter
for speculation at the moment.
Assuming they do, the question
undoubtedly in the minds of both
Democrats and Republican leaders
is whether the marketing run will
come soon enough to relieve the
shortage before the November con-
gressional elections-and which
party that relief would tend to help.
There can be no denying that the
meat shortage is, for the moment,
a flaming issue in many congress
sional races. But each party has
sought to fix the blame on the other
1t is generally agreed that live
stock farmers have been tending to-
hold their animals for possible re-
moval of price controls or higher
ceilings. The Agriculture Depart
ment reports this holding to be one
OF the factors in the shortage.
Says Ceilings Are Permanent.
The administration has sought
by means of Secretary Andersons
Albuquerque speech this week and
by MIR. Truman's statement yester-
day-to convince farmers that con-
trolls will not be removed or CELL
ings increased.
Unquestionably some farmers will
be convinced and consequently will
not hold out much longer.
But there is a question whether
many may not decide to wait out
the situation.
There are number of factors
which place farmers in position to
hold their cattle. After five years
of good war markets, few need to
sell for financial reasons.
Further, it is possible for farmers
with slaughter quality cattle to carry
them through the winter for further I
fattening on new grass next spring
and summer.
Another factor which might en-
courage some cattlemen to postpone |
marketings until next year is the
income tax situation. Some cattle
men already have earned large sums
this year and additional marketings
would throw them into higher tax
brackets.
Some Expect Higher Prices.
On yet another basis, the feeling
is widespread in farming areas that
livestock prices will be more favor
able next year than at present. Evil
dence of this is seen in the strong
demand of corn-belt cattle feeders
for lean cattle.
When they consider prospects
favorable. these feeders buy large
number of lightweight cattle from
the ranges, feed them heavy rations
of corn and fatten them to top
weights and qualities. 1t takes
three to six months to complete this
process. This fattening process will
start in large volume as soon as the
corn crop becomes available this fall.
Reports have been received at the
Agriculture Department here that
many of these feeders plan to fatten
and hold their cattle until price con-
trolls expire next June 80. These
feeders obviously are influenced by
the belief that they would get better
prices then.
If producers of grass-fattened cat
tie share this belief, they too may
decide to hold until after price con-
trols expire. If any considerable
number do, Mr.. Truman's forecast
will turn nllt Ia hn .-ra..n