Evening star., 1946-05-19
BY Miriom Ottenbero


something less than we'll Uniformed
when they started tossing around
calculations to prove "by the Armys
own figures" that the draft is not
needed, check-up revealed today.
With the draft extension scheduled
for more debate on Capitol Hill
soon, The Star asked the War De-
partment to explain. if it could,
where Representative Short, Repub-
lican, of Missouri went off the track
when he produced set of figures to
prove beyond peradventure of
doubt" that the Army not only didn't
need the draft but was going to
wind up with surplus Of 175,75S
men on July l, 1947.
After puzzling over the figures for
hours. the Army statisticians re-
ported that Mr.. Short counted some
personnel twice, underestimated by
$4,000 the number of men who
would be lost by, expiration of en-
listments and was $4,000 men wrong
on his estimate of the number of
draftees remaining in service next
July.
Calculations Explained.
In his calculations, Mr.. Short de-
ducts each of the groups which he
says will be available on July l.,
l947, to reach Army strength of
100000. BY his calculations, If the
Army will have exactly enough men
to reach strength, his final figure
should be zero. At the point where
the 100000 volunteers come into the
picture, Mr.. Short passes zero and
goes into surplus. Then he deducts
his estimate of those lost through
short-term enlistments from his
surplus but still winds up with more
men than the Army needs-he
figures
Here's how Mr. Short arrived at
his surplus, together with the
Army's comment:
Mr.. Short-The Army asks on
July l. 1947, 100000 troops.
Army-Correct.
Mr.. Short-The Army will have
on July l, 1947, $4,000 Air Corps
officers, $4,000 ground force officers
deduct 10000; 100000 balance.
Figures Differ.
Army-The exact figures are g. |
900 Air Forces officers and $1,000
ground force officers, but the total
is the same.
Mr.. Short-Fifty thousand Philip
pine Scouts-deduct $4,000; 800, 900
balance.
Army-Correct, but we haven't
got them yet.
Mr. Short - There are $4,000
WACS now in service. Since many
are in for duration and six months,
10000 is a conservative estimate of
those remaining until July l, 1947-i
deduct 10000: $4,000 balance.
Army-We will have $4,000 WACS
left this July We don't know how
many we will have by July, 1947
Mr.. Short-One hundred and six
ty thousand men drafted between !
January l and May Is, 1916, of
whom Army samplings reveal about |
so per cent later volunteer-deduct
10000; 10000 balance.
Army We don't have the May
draft figures, which will be small,
but 135;o00 men were drafted be-
tween sJanuary and April. which
brings the total we'll below 100000
Further. we can't tell whether Mr..
Short is assuming an 18-month dis
charge policy or a two-year one to
arrive at 10000 men. If the Army
releases draftees with 18 months
service and the draft is not eX-
tended, 10000 draftees will be left.
If the Army continues its two-year
policy. 100000 draftees will be left
a. y Volunteers Listed = la
Mr. Short-Vpunteers at 81, 600 a
month, July / to December Nal946
deduct 10000; $4,000 balance.
Army-Mr. Short has already
counted some of these before-the
$4,000 Philippine Scouts. Otherwise, !
the estimate is the Army's own, but
considered optimistic l.
Mr.. Short-Vounteers at 10000 a
month, January l to July /, 1947-I
deduct 120 900; $4,000 balance.
Army-This is the Arrny's esti-
mate, too, still optimistic.
Mr.. Short-Volunteers, October,
1945, to July l, 1916, at least 800, 900
deduct 100000; 10000 surplus.
Army-Correct.
Mr.. Short-One year and t8I
month enlistments which expire
before July /, 1947-deduct 257, ,842;
44,158 surplus.
Army-We expect to lose 100000