Evening star., 1946-11-03
1916 Election
ToBeStudied
For1948Clue
Vote on House Members
Has Provided Kew
in Off Years
Rv Francis p. Douelas

II IfllS Is true, tnen more may oepenQ
on the outcome OF Tuesdays elections
than merely the political complexion Of
the House in the next two years. 1t may
mean, If the Republicans win majority,
that we can expect Republican Presi-
dent two years from now. Or Demo-
cratic majority may indicate that for
six more years the occupant of the
White House will be Democrat.
Is this axiom based on fact?
Only One Exception.
An examination of the records run
ming back to pre-Civil War days shows
the statement has been true save in
one instance In that one case, however,
the deviation was due to the temporary
alteration OF the electoral machinery.
The records also reveal instances
which suggest the axiom may not be
taken as a cast iron rule which will
ones in which the party wrestling con-
troll of the House in midterm from the
party in power, elected the President
two years later, but by a minority of
the vote.
BY party in power" is meant the
party which controls both the executive
and legislative branches of the Govern
ment-the party which has the presi-
dency and majorities in both houses of
Congress.
The apparent exception to the axiom
occurred in the Hayes -Tlden election of
1876. Two years before, in the middle
of Grants second administration, the
Democrats captured control of the
House with majority of 81. That they
did not win the presidency in 1876 was
due to the disputed electoral votes in
three Southern States and Oregon and
the operation of the Electoral Commits
sion which was appointed to solve the
problem.
Tilden, the Democratic candidate, had
polled 4,234,000 votes while Hayes, Re-
publican, had received 4033, 900. Most
historians agree 1t was only the work of
the Republican dominated Electoral
Commission which gave Hayes the cleo
ton by 1875 to 1874 votes in the electoral
college.
The Republicans benefited in the one
and the Democrats in the other of the
two instances in which the "outs" took
control of the House from the party in
power in midterm and then elected
the President with minority of the
vote.
The first case was in the election of
Lincoln by the Republicans in 1860.
-Four years earlier the Democrats had
elected Buchanan, defeating Fremont,
the candidate of the newly formed Re
publican party. The Democrats also
elected majorities in the Senate and
the House.
Then in 1858 the Republicans elected
. majority of the House. Two years
later Lincoln was elected but by vote
that was almost 100000 less than the
total vote which the divided Democrats
gave Douglas and Breckenridge.
The Democrats profited in 1912 in the
same way the Republicans had profited
In 1860
A Republican majority in the House
elected with Taft in 1908 had changed
to Democratic majority in 1910. In
the election of 1912 Theodore Roosevelt,
Progressive, and Taft, Republican, to-
gether polled majority of the vote, but
Wilson was elected. His popular vote
was 1,309,0 900 less than the combined
vote of his opponents.
In these two instances the forces which
led to the party in power losing the
House in midterm also split the party
and made it ineffective two years later.
In these and all other instances since
BuGhanan's day-with the exception of
the 1876 election already mentioned
where the party in power has lost the
House in the of-year elections, it has
lost the presidency two years later.
Began With Lincoln.
The list begins with Lincoln's election.
The conditions described in the axiom
next were fulfilled in 1892 when Cleve-
land, Democrat, was elected for his
second nonconsecutive term. Four
years earlier Harrison, Republican, had
been elected President with small ma
jorities in the Senate and the House.
Then, in midterm, the Democrats won
the House by large majority, and
Cleveland was elected subsequently,
with Democratic ma jorities in both the
Senate and the House.
Two years later the Democrats lost
the House to the Republicans and after
two more years-in 1896-the Republi-
cans elected Mckinley.
, There followed the long period of un-
broken Republican rule which caused
some people to apply william Jennings
Bryan's slogan of 16-to-1 to the political
ratio instead Of to the free coinage OF
silver, as Bryan had used it.
The Republican rule began to break
up in 1910 when the Democrats won
large House majority. Two years later
came Wilson's election, although with
fewer votes than Bryan had polled four
years earlier in his unsuccessful race
as the Democratic nominee against
Taft. E.
In 1920 Harding was elected by the
Republicans who won control of the
House in the memorable election of
1918. It was in that election that Will
son had called for Democratic ma
jority in Congress to help him wage war
and make peace.
In 1882 came the election of Franklin
D. Roosevelt. Four years earlier Mr..
Hoover had gone into office with Re-
publican rnajorities in the Senate and
the House In the off-year elections
the Republican majority of more than
100 in the House had been changed
to a slim Democratic lead.