The Wilmington morning star. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1909-1990, 1946-01-14
ARM ECONOMIST
Sees GOOD YEAR

ran look forward in 1916
fsf Irens demand, at good prices,
pa s' a;ou1tural products because OF
br agl l',srtime savings, removal OF
large w wartime restrictions, and a
most , Ma Of exports and foreign
sign is .tbipments, says H. Brooks
'elel ' professor Of Agricultural
James ss,,,j es'- with the Agricultural
comment Station at State Col
lsss. -, prices in 1916 will likely
fa aIe,tiy below the record 1915
I.yels' but they are expected a to as,
sure ,o 10. 90 average and higher than
the ls ~ snv wear before 1943. Even
rna' W " farm income for the coul,.
80 n.' whole may be from 10
try a. .or cent below the high level
70 , 10 r. This is true because prices
d ., , ,srm products in 1s45 averaged
{. 'ho ut double the 1904 ,a base eo ana
a aDer, twice the prewar 1859 av'
a neal. and are likely to be slightly
lower in 1916
w." v;a savings the largest in his
~. WV and the farm mortgage debt
tofy ON. al,est in 30 years, farmers
a me si speaking will enter 1916
gsn'l letter financial condition than
.vsr before. After several years Of
hard hart work and wartime restric-
ns,s thew can look forward to buy
, ,,v,'s noany Of the things they want
AZ, ,pd need TOR their farms and
homes.
while it appears now that most
times NJ farm machinery and sup
niles ri will be adequate to meet pro-
auction needs in 1916, a great
many manufactured goods will not
hegin TO meet all demands until
late ls4s or well in le47. Prices
paid by farmers for machinery and
supplies will be about the same or
slightly higher than in 1915.
The demand for United States to-
bacco Is expected to continue rela-
lively high throughout 1s46 and into
1o47 in view of the high level Of
domestic consumption and the fav-
orable outlook for exports. Al
though production Of all tobacco
was at record high in 1945 of over
two billion pounds, the government
has suggested slight increase for
1915. However, a decrease Of about
10 per cent is suggested for hurley.
Prices for tobacco may be slightly
lower in 1916. Also, a greater price
differential is expected between
grades.
Government loan rates for cotton
fixed at 90 IL per cent Of parity
will prevail for at least l946 and
l947. This gives a loan rate of some
i've cents above the world market
price and will determine the
amount farmers will receive for
heir cotton, James says. The pres
mt supply Of cotton includes an abb
large amount of the short.
II staples and lower grades.
The demand for shelled peanut
roducts will be moderately lower
4 194647 than in the past two
ears. Prices Of peanuts, at 80 per
ent of the present parity for pea
uts for nuts, would be slightly
yer $3.50 per ton.
Milk production during 1916 for
ne country as whole Is expect
d to be l to 3 percent below the
l-tlme peak reached in 1915.
'rices received by farmers for
airy products will be influenced
realty by government programs
lcluding ceilings an d subsidies.
ut returns to farmers will likely
e moderately lower than those in
945.
Pork production will be larger
nan in 1915. Hog prices in 1916
robably will average moderately
over than those in 1915 when
rlces were at ceilings for most
f the year.
Prices received by farmers for
ggs in 1946 are expected to be
t or near support levels in con-
rast to most of 1945 WIN egg
rices remained near ceilings. The
xtene of this decline will depend
'hlefly on xport d1nand, Jams
avs. Farm egg production in 1916
will be slightly below the
Indicated as million dozen pro-
uced in 1915. Turkey and chicken
rlces probably will decline from