Evening star., 1946-02-10

incapable OF Waglng war.
The Allied reparations agreement
is now close enough to final form for
experts to forecast what lies ahead for
Germany. 1t is unpleasant, and these
men hope the American people fully
realize what is going to happen so that
their program may still hold firm 10
years and more hence.
The economists, believing this would
be Germany's lot even without disarma-
ment, see unemployment so bad they
don't like to talk figures and hunger
alone dominant in the struggle between
an excessive population and inadequate
food resources. Only by their ingenuity
in developing light industries will the
Germans avert or lessen this peril.
The latest ration card tally shows the
population of Germany in all four zones
at 66,500,000. The Americans expect re-
turning prisoners of war and the flow
of racial Germans from Poland, Hun
gary and Czechoslovakia to up this to
100000 by l949.
Large Food Imports Needed.
Large food imports will be needed.
The Russians estimate an annual out
lay Of 900000,000 reichsmarks on food.
The American estimate of Germany's
imported food bill runs to $500 900 900
reichsmarks. These estimates are based
on daily ration of $500 calories per
person and anticipate a shift in Ger
man agriculture from meat-raising to
direct-consumption crops such as ce-
reals.
The German diet will be heavy with
bread and potatoes, light on meat; with
milk for babies and mothers only and
tropical fruits, tea and coffee virtually
cut of.
The four powers are agreed on push
ing German coal exports to a point
where these will pay for the bulk of
food imports. To make up the revenue
brought before the war by exports of
steel. heavy machinery and chemicals,
Germany will have to develop industries
such as ceramics, toys, textiles and
woodworking.
To advance the day when Germany
can start Tending for herself, the Amer
leans have taken the lead in urging that
she be given the green light in all
peaceful industries, without restriction
They see no threat to Allied foreign
commerce, since Germany will face
problems enough as things stand in
overcoming ill-will and normal COM
petition. But the Americans want a
safety-valye for German energy.
In employment, the safety valve will
be construction. Agriculture will alb
sorb about 100000, or 81 per cent
more than were active on the land in
1888. But four. five or six million work.
ers will be left.
Grim Future Ahead.
Gen. Clay has ordered local German
administrations to plan large-scale con-
struction. Though there Is 10 or 20
years work in repairing the terrific de-
struction in all Germany. limitations on
steel and financing are such that 1t is
doubtful If jobs can be found even here
for all.
The Ruhr, where heavy industry is
concentrated, will be hardest hit by
unemployment. Cities the size of Gin
cinnati will be without major indus
try The American zone will not be as
seriously affected.
Based on an official view of the next
five Or ten years, this is the advice a
well-wisher might give the Germans:
Get out of Germany if you can. If
you can become farmer or farm
laborer, do so. If you're skilled work.
er, get into line which needs plenty
of skill and little raw material. Stay
out of the professions or business of
your own. Get close to the source of
food" Women might be further coun-
seled to marry farmers and not have
children
The Germans have two alternatives.
They can live hard, work hard and put
Germany back on the map as decent
country; or they can nurse their re-
venge, bide their time until the Allies
fall apart. The answer would seem to
depend on whether the Allies can stick
together.
(Copyright, 1946. by North American Newspaper
Alliance, Inc, and The Providence JournaI)