Evening star., 1946-11-10

more than 70 cents, United states cottoL
statistically Is in better position today
than at any time in history. This is the
opinion of representatives of the textile
industry, cotton producers and Govern.
ment economists, and is based on status
tics gathered over 27-year period.
The factors involved in cotton's favor
able position today and which point to
a brighter future for Dixie's cotton
producers, briefly, are these:
During the last two years large surplus
stocks of cotton, obtained by the Gov
ernment in the 1930s as a means OF
bolstering the market after the fiber had
tumbled to an all-time low, have been
successfully liquidated. This has been
done at no loss to the Government and
at times when the sale OF Government
owned cotton stocks did not affect the
market.
1916 Production Inadequate.
Mill consumption in the United States
during 194l and 1912 reached an all-time
high of more than 100000 bales, and
has continued at about 100000 bales.
This year, for the first time on record,
consumption passed production. A con-
tinued demand for cotton products. plus
scientific developments, bringing new
uses for cotton, should keep production
to it's present high rate.
Since the end of hostilities foreign
markets are again opening up with good
prospects for the resumption of normal
exports of fiber from this country.
Representatives of the National Cotton
Council of America believe the United
States can expect to export 100000
bales a year. A. present cents-a-pound
export subsidy is designed to place
American cotton on favorable price
level with that of other cotton-pro-
ducing countries.
Farm labor shortages, still severe in
some parts of the Southern cotton-pro-
ducing States. in addition to programs
of diversified agriculture, make it un-
likely that present high cotton prices
will start a production race that will
result in the end in Debated prices and
economic chaos. Last years crop of
SITS, 900 bales and this years estimated
crop of 100000 bales are two of the
lowest crops on record, and next years
estimated production of 100000 bales
is not considered excessive.
On the debit side of the Ledger, how
ever, there are several factors that could
have an adverse effect on the future of
cotton in this country.
Reports from the cotton States indi-
cate that planters who have not yet sold
their fiber are holding back in the ex-
pectations that prices will again ap-
proach the Accent peak. And respon-
sible representatives of the cotton trade
fear that Accent cotton, with rayon
selling at rs cents, would take cotton out
of competition with synthetics in many
fields. This could have lasting effect
on cotton.
While there is a. tremendous shortage
of cotton all over the world, pointing to
a good export market for long time
to come, representatives of the National
Cotton Council point out that the
United States faces serious competition
with Brazil Our domestic price struc-
ture, coupled with the future position
of the Government in regards to export
subsidies, will play an important role
in Americas future export trade.
At the same time it should be point
ed out that continued mechanization
is expected to reduce the production
costs of cotton, thus enabling American
planters to receive favorable income
at q lower price level. This would place
the United States in better COMPETE
tive position in world trade.
Foreign Markets Opened.
The ability of the United States to
reduce its surplus stocks, which amount
ed to more than 100000 bales in 1945,
to a 100000 satisfactory" carryover
this year, was the result of a number
of factors, chiefly the opening up Of
foreign markets at the close Of the war.
During the war cotton exports from
the United States, which had averaged
about 100000 bales during prewar
years, dropped to little more than
1000, 900 bales a year. In 1945 exports
from this country jumped to 1881 ,009
bales, and are expected to reach about
100000 bales this year.
In addition to exports of raw cotton,
many European countries came out OF
the war with their manufacturing IA
cilities in ruins and the demand for
cotton products rose measurably.
At the same time the demand for
cotton goods in this country rose to an
all-time high. Despite the fact that
the armed services cut their purchases
of cotton, mills could not supply the
demand for cotton products brought
about by demobilization and the need
for civilian requirements. The demand
for household goods that had been un-
available during the war also was great.
This demand, coupled with the two
short crops which had been caused by
war shortages of labor and adverse
weather conditions enabled surplus
holdings to be reduced to a satisfactory
level.
Indications now point to an increase
in cotton production next year. The
cotton States report heavy purchases
this fall of seed and fertilizers, suggest
ing that farmers are planning an in
crease in cotton acreage. This is borne
out by Agriculture Department officials,
who predict a $4,000, ,0Oo-bale crop in
1947.
Speculative Holdings.
While an increase in production Is
certain, the amount of increase will
depend to a degree on the market dur
ing the February-to-May planting sea-
son. Observers believe that the recent
a..a lao of al