Evening star., 1946-07-27
Bottle of Statistics
To Feature Elections
Facts and Figures to Be Banded
on Prices and Wages
Bv RAYMOND M0Lev

y
The election this fall will be battle
of statistics. Never since the redoubt-
able Bryan covered the land in 1898
with fantastic figures on gold and silver
have we had such prospect. Voters
in 500 battles will be wallowing in a
swarm of real, false, fantastic and fool
ish figures. 1t will be like plague
of locusts shutting out the sun and
binding human eyes. The poor voter
will finally reach for a pencil and vote
for the guy with the best voice and the
fewest figures. Certainly he will forever
rest in doubt about what has happened
in this hectic summer, price wise or
any other wise.
The sober fact is that if candidate
or the President or any one else really
presented in speech the full story of
prices and wages, he would be UNDER
stood by only cne in a hundred. Most
listeners could not hear him through.
Because the situation is so complex, SO
qualified by this or that and SO heavy
with economic principles that to explain
it all would take hours of speech and
volumes of paper.
The story will not be mere recital
of things as they will be in future. 1t
will be history, prophecy and history
of prophecies mostly bad prophecies.
COP on OPA.
Republicans will tell how badly the
administration guessed over the past
year as to employment, prices and Fed
eral finance. They will recount Chester
Bowles' dire phophecy of what would
happen on July 20 if the OPA expired.
They will tell of the wallace blunders
on employment, wages and prices. They
will also point out that the Department
of Commerce mixes propaganda proph-
ecies with it's recital of sober statistics.
For example, this has just appeared:
Perhaps the most striking aspect OF
the recent behavior of prices is that
the large increases occurred despite the
prospect of the reimposition OF OPA
controls and of a rollback to June 80
levels. Without this prospect overhang-
ing the market, price increases would
most certainly have been greater and
more general"
This is not factual information. 1t
is an apology for bad prophecy and
a hypothetical guess about something
which is not determinable in any known
crystal ball.
In the melee, government figures will
sink still lower in public esteem. There
have been some bad examples of statls-
tical reporting by the Government al
ready. That reporting is getting no
better
Public Dissatisfied.
The new OPA measure will be shown
to have been antiquated before it was
finished. Whatever happens, nobody will
be satisfied. The terrific heavings of
nature, which are producing unbelievable
crops, throw askew all calculations.
Corn, oats and wheat are exceeding
records 1t won't help much to talk
about what they were on June 80, as
the bill provides. Supply and demand
will be the great leveler.
One most interesting fact however,
should not be overlooked as the admin
istration is judged this fall. What would
have happened if there had been passed
! the full employment Dill, SO earnestly
advocated by President Truman? Under
it he would have been required to send
to Congress last January complete
national budget, with estimates of
wages, income agricultural and business
prospects. We now know that any such
mass of figures would be completely
cockeyed today. 1t would have been
the funniest book of the century. For
if this strange year of 1916 has taught
us anything, it is that such prediction
is impossible to make with fair chance
of accuracy. Republicans would have
had nothing to do but draw their
speeches from that document. From
that folly, at least, Mr.. Truman was
saved by his enemies.
released by the Associated Newspapers, Ine)