Evening star., 1946-11-05
Independent Voters
Deciding the Election
Shift of Three Per Cent in Totals
Will Swing Certain Districts

>SSsSsssS VIZ @sSs
Shift Of Three Per Cent in Totals
Will Swing Certain Districts
By D0vid Laurence.
The election unquestionably was de-
cided by independent" voters. This
means the group who do not vote the
same way in every election. The
"straight-ticket' voters In both parties
are no longer the controlling factor.
The balance of power Is held by those
who shift according to the issues offered
or the candidates presented.
There are congressional districts In
which q change Of only ; per cent
from one election to the other Is enough
to swing victory from one side TO the
other. The sum total Of all these shift
ing groups throughout the Nation pro-
duces the election victory.
Back in 1882 substantial number Of
Republican voters left their party to
vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt. BY 1886
some Of them had gone back to their
party but not enough to affect the out
come In 1910, with war ISSUES In the
ofing, the return to the Republican
Party was again checked and likewise
In 1914.
Political History.
1t was in the congressional elections
each time between presidential elections
that the Republicans showed signs Of
min ho cE fhofr iotp al sfi
But the Republican gains in these Of
year elections were not retained when
the presidential election swept Demo-
cratic members Of Congress into once
on the coattails of r. D. r.
With the 1s4s congressional election
over, the question will arise whether
political history, as it happened in 1886,
1910 and 1914, will be repeated or
whether in 1948 the Republican tide
will keep on mounting.
Obviously, when a national election
can be personalized, the tendency Of
the voters is to choose between the two
major party candidates and vote the
straight party ticket for the remainder
of the candidates. This is the reason
why some excellent Republican mem
bers lost out in presidential years.
The growth in independent voting has
made elections more and more difhcult
to control by machines or party organ
izations. 1t is relatively simple matter,
however, to concentrate political cam
paigning IN key cities and get enough
electoral votes that way to swing ma
jority in a presidential election. In
hand, where each district and each State
are units, the concentration Of voting
cannot be as effective.
1t doesn't matter, for instance, how
high the majority runs in New York
City district usually carried by the
Democrats because the Democratic can
didate there cannot transfer his surplus
votes to some other congressional dis
trict. That is one reason why the Re-
publicans felt sure of gains this time
in seats In the House of Representatives.
Conversely, with populous cities where
. heavy Democratic vote offsets Republic
can ma iorities in country districts, the
candidates for United States Senator
had the benefit Of Statewide voting and
that Is why the Democrats felt surer
about cutting down Republican chances
to win the Senate.
Several Days fer Tally.
When all the election returns are IN
and 1t usually takes several days for
the final tally to be recorded In all dis
tricts-it will be found that the 1s46
election followed the pattern Of other
congressional elections especially with
respect to the so-called protest vote.
Where there is discomfort or dissatisfac-
ton, the party In power usually suffers.
whereas the party out OF power, even
though offering no particular alterna-
tive in public policy, benefits by the
protests. ...
The congressional elections, moreover,
start the ball rolling for the presidential
race two years away. When the Con-
gress just elected takes ONCE In January
next, the lines for the subsequent presi-
dental political campaign will be laid.
American politics occupies the attention
VI IIlS NOIcIS JuSt d 1c" WcChS III ello
autumn months every two years but
actually the politicians play the game
all the time. The late President Roose-
velt was one of those who believed that
campaigning between elections was most
influential and he usually got most Of
his publicity in the press between cam
paigns so that the campaign itself was
too short for his opponent to overcome
those advantages.
In the congressional campaign just
closed it may be said that impressions
formed long before today actually in.
fuenced the voters and prejudiced them
one way or the other on the issues and