Evening star., 1946-02-10
Grim Future greed On For Germany
Nation Be Reduced dRate Power Industray With
Overpopulation Underproducon of Vital

Samuel LubeH has spent the great
en- part OF recent years in the White
House, as assistant to James M.
Byrnes ,phen the latter ,oas director
OF economic stabilisation, as assist
/ ant to Bernard M. Baruch In pre-
pairing the policy report for the
Office OF War Mobilization and as
general secretary OF Mr.. Baruch's
Rubber Commission, in Which capdc-
ity Mr.. Bdruch described hin, to the
late President Roosevelt as the
little man tpho does all the tDork."
BERLIN-The Allies would seem to
have surmounted their first critical test
in the four-power administration of
Germany. 1t seems certain that the
final issues will be smoothed out be-
tween Russia and the western Allies and
that agreement will be reached in the
near future on the economy to be left
to Germany.
What now is troubling our industrial
disarmament experts is whether long
term controls will be maintained over
Germany economy SO that all the work
done here during the last six months
does not wash out. That seems to be
the chief question mark underlying the
progress report concerning reparations
issued here recently by Brig. Gen. Will
liam Draper, head of the American
Economics Division.
Dry, technical, formal the report may
not have created much stir In America
Yet it rated banner headlines on front
pages all over the world.
Four Principal Points.
American officials stress the following
points regarding this down-to-earth i'm
fermentation of the Potsdam agreement
for industrial disarmament of Ger
many:
One, the differences still being bar
gained over are so small by comparison
to the progress made that there remains
little doubt that Germany will be re-
duced industrially to third-rate power,
impotent to wage war alone
Two, Germany will remain knocked
out as factor in world economic COM
petition for some years to come, OPEN
ing up for some nations opportunities
to capture former German trade; con-
fronting others with the problem of
replacing Germany as a customer.
Three, at least the present generation
of Germans faces harsh struggle be-
tween overpopulation and limited food
resources; the pressure on Germans to
emigrate will be terrific.
Four, nothing like this deliberate re-
versing Of highly industrialized econ
omy has ever been tried before, and no
one can foresee how far-reaching the
consequences may be or what the final
outcome; the crucial test may not come
for five years.
Bundled together. these four points
are package of tremendous signifi-
canoe. Elder Statesman Bernard M
Baruch has warned that what is done
with Germany is the foundation on
which any peace structure must stand
Details Difficult to Handle.
AT Yalta and Potsdam, the Big
Three laid down the fundamental policy
that Germany was to be disarmed in
dustrially as well as militarily.. However,
this was still a pious hope, to be
translated into specific tonnages and
prohibitions, industry by industry,
through the whole complex range of
German economy. Should Germany be
left with 100000, 10000 900 or 49,
100000 tons of steel annually? Should
her machine-tool capacity be limited
to 100000, 100000 or $4,000 tonsp Hun
dreds of such detailed decisions have
had to be linked into a single gigantic
blueprint which would satisfy conflict
ing political, economic and CONNER
cial interests of four powers speaking
three different anguages-indeed, three
and half, with American.
This was the job tossed to the Allied
Control Council after the Potsdam Con-
ference almost broke up over Russia IS
seeming eagerness to beggar Germany
as against American and British in
sistence that Germany be left capable
of paying for all necessary imports
so that we do not wind up paying
Germany's reparations as after World
War I.
The hit-and-run Potsdam meeting
was unable to work out this conflict
and the Americans abruptly broke the
deadlock by slashing Germany into two
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