Evening star., 1946-10-27

"Is the Republican tide now running
against the Democrats the historical
antiadministration ebb of midterm elec-
tions or will 1t reach groundswell size
by November So
Republican leaders, privately as we'll
as publicly, are confident that they will
have workable majority in the House
of the Eightieth Congress and that they
have at least $3.50 chance of con-
trolling the Senate.
To win the House the Republicans
must win 26 additional seats; to control
the Senate they must add members to
their present 80 plus / Progressive. Sem
ator Robert M. La Toilette, jr, who was
defeated in the Republican primary
Democratic leaders publicly will not
concede the net loss of any seats in the
House or Senate. Privately they ac-
knowledge the probable loss of Is to 20
in the House and to in the Senate.
Reason for COP Optimism.
Republicans have been cockily conf
dent before only to be disappointed on
election day. This year they have rea-
sons for their SNUG satisfaction. I'M
partial polls, battle-ground surveys by
political correspondents and local spot
checks by party workers forecast Re-
publican gains far beyond the usual
midterm losses by the party in power.
Indeed, there are evidences of an anti
administration groundswell comparable
to the wave in Great Britain which un-
expectedly washed Winston Churchils
government out of Office last year.
An objective analysis indicates that
the Democrats will have minimum net
loss of Is seats in the House-which
would keep the organization Demo-
cratic-and a minimum net loss of 6
Senate seats, which would assure Demo-
cratic control for the next two years
and probably after 1948, when 10 of
the Is Democrats up for reelection
come from Southern States where the
Republicans don't have chance. Only
solid South seats are up this year.
If an antiadministration landslide
develops, the Republicans could gain
as high as IS House seats and IL Sem
ate seats. This would foreshadow an
overwhelming Truman administration
defeat in 1948.
80 House Contests Close.
The accompanying table lists the GER
tain, probable and uncertain disposi-
tions of the IS Senate elections this
year. In the event of Republican land
slide, several of the probable Demo-
cratic" seats would go Republican, even
by substantial margins If there is no
landslide, the Democrats could pick up
two seats, now held by Republicans, to
offset partly their expected losses in
other States. Will Rogers, jr. Demo
craft is seemingly in close contest
with Senator William F. Knowland
Republican) who was appointed by
Gov. Earl Warren of California. and
John Young Brown DemocraD is in
a similar fight against John Sherman
Cooper (Republican) in Kentucky for
the seat held by Senator William A.
Stanfill, also appointed by Republican
Governor.
Space limitation and other reasons
make similar table for the House elec-
tions impracticable. In 1914 there were
about 90 House seats, Democratic and
Republican, which were decided by ma
jorities of per cent or less. A switch
of S voters out of every 100 in these
districts would replace the incumbent.
Six of these are in Missouri, in Iili-
nois, 8 in Pennsylvania, in New York,
5 in Connecticut, in Ohio, in Cali
fornia and so on. Since the midterm
elections favor the party out of office,
the Republicans have good chance of
holding most of their present close seats
and of knocking off sizable batch OF
Democratic incumbents.
Personalities and local issues enter
into House campaigns and it would take
a district-by district canvass to pre-
dict how each is likely to go. The two
national party headquarters are CEN
tering their hottest campaign oratory