Evening star., 1946-11-10
GIG Called
Failure as
Spy Bureau
Top Men Disappointed ;
Permanence Depends
On Congress
By Constantine Bro,On

There Is a good deal of disappoint-
ment in official quarters over the fact
that the GIG Central Intelligence
Group has failed to live up to expec-
tations.
The consensus of top military men
and diplomats is that the danger of an
armed conflict in Europe this year has
been averted. But what we may have to
face in the future is question which
no one would venture to answer The
gulf between the western countries
anG the eastern totalitarians is as wide
as ever. Whether it can be narrowed
soon is a question which will be par
TALLY answered by the results of the
meetings of the U. N. Assembly and
the Foreign Ministers Council.
The Central Intelligence Group has
been organized to gain clear picture
OF what is going on abroad. Its princi-
pal weakness consists of the fact that
it has been created not by an act of
Congress, which would give it perma-
nency, but by an executive order,
which gives it temporary status
Should President Truman change his
mind about the Importance of the organ
ization, or should the funds which
are still at his disposal to be spent
without congressional authorization dry
UP, this vital body for national de-
tense would disappear overnight.
To the average citizen intelligence"
Is word which camoufages spying.
AS a matter of fact, the military spying
angle of intelligence, particularly the
central group, should be OF relative
unimportance. The trained manpoWer
and the new weapons a country may
devise are, of course, important and
should be known to those who are pre-
pairing the Nations defenses. But there
are other matters, which have even
greater bearing on the waging of a war.
Dissatisfaction in U. S. S. r.
We. have heard recently from some
of the best informed quarters that
Russia is undergoing severe domestic
crisis. 1t is said that production diff
ficulties are worrying the Kremlin. To
this is added the fact that the Russian
soldiers who have returned home have
learned that conditions in the other
sections of Europe are more pleasant
and better than in their own country.
This is said to have led to general dis
satisfaction in the u. S. S. r. which is
gravely concerning its leaders.
How much of this propaganda is in
spired by the Politbureau in Moscow
and how much is true is impossible to
say. Some observers believe that the
Hardship stories" are being put out by
the Kremlin to lull the world into
feeling that the q. S. S. r. is incapable
of waging another war. There is no
question that conditions in Russia are
bad. Production has Jagged and the
consumers, with the exception of the
party men and a few scientists, have
lacked even the bare necessities of life
for the last % years. But hardshlps
have become endemic in Russia. where
it is impossible, under the present set
up, for any one to raise his voice IN
protest.
Our policy trainers have to guess,
however, which reports to believe:
Those coming from Russia itself which
are "colored" by the government, or the
assumptions of trained observers who
Judge the situation by precedents such
as the poor showing of the Russian ar
mics in the 1899 war against Finland.
A modern and up-to-date intelligence
must be composed less of military and
navy men than of engineers, business
men and scientists. 1t must have
trained analysts who are capable OF in
terpreting production figures and can
draw conclusions from the economic
and social trends in every country.
Significance of Changes.
It may be of special significance, for
instance, if the production of a farm
implements factory in Czechoslovakia or
an electrical equipment factory in
Sweden drops Unexpectedly while the
workers are not being laid of. And
while it may not be easy to judge
Immediately the causes of the drop, 1t
permits trained observers to get busy
investigating what is happening in these
establishments.
An unexpected shift of some important
men in government or in an industrial
organization when a specialist without
political ideologies is being replaced by
a man known for his political connec-
tions, also can have an important bear
ing on the trends in that particular
country.
The organization OF scientific ex-
pedition to go to remote areas where
important raw materials may exist, is
of vital importance. Unless the intel
ligence agency has specialists who are
aware of the potentials OF those areas
such an expedition may pass unnoticed
and it may be too late before its real
significance comes to the surface. In
the years which followed World War
I, the Japanese built sugar fac
tories" and warehouses in the strategic
inundated islands in the Pacific without
anybody taking serious notice OF them.
These warehouses and factories" con-
tanned, as we found out later, gun
emplacements and Notifications which
had to be conquered by our Marines and
soldiers at heavy price. An effective
and wideawake intelligence would have
drawn the Governments attention to
the fact that there was no reason for
such constructions.
Today, more than ever before, every
industrial establishment may have a
war potential. Only well-trained spe-
ciaIists can draw the important con-
clusion from facts which appear in
nocuous and unimportant to the average
individual