Evening star., 1946-12-29
Peacetime Economy Menaces
Merchant Marine World Role
Outlook Bleak for Retention of Wartime Place
as Dominant Maritime Power Because OF
Finance and Competition
Ry NeupboId Moves Jr.
Bv Nerb0Id NoyeS, J.

(This is the first OF a series OF
articles by Mr.. Noyes on the
future OF the United States
merchant marine. The second
wiH appear in The Epening Star
tomorroU.)
The outlook for the American
merchant marine is black. In
formed pessimists think our mer-
chant fleet is headed for extinc-
ton. Informed optimists think
that by dint of great effort we
may be able to keep in operation
about the same number of ships
as that with which, woefully un-
prepared. we approached the Sec
ond World War. Extreme opti-
mists think we may even do little
better than that.
It is not easy to say which OF
these views is the most discourag-
ing.
Whatever happens, its bound tc
be quite a letdoWn. The United
States came out of the recent wal
with almost twice as many sea-
going merchant ships as the rest
of the world put together. The
average" citizen, since then, has
had in the back of his conscious
ness the sesmingly reasonable
dream that we might be able to
maintain our position as the dom
inant maritime power.
He reads in the paper, for ex-
ample, that at the beginning OF this
month there were 5,731 merchant
ships, publicly or privately owned
in the United States, capable Of
carrying some 100000 long tons
of whatever we wanted them te
carry wherever we wanted it car
ried. This sounds good to him
and he sees no reason why we
should not keep it up.
The first clear fact which he must
grasp if he wants to understand ou1
maritime situation is that we cannot
keep up such a feet in peacetlme
The men directly concerned with
the problem-who, because OF flnan-
cial interest or other persuasion
are determined we must keep q
strong, well l-balanced merchant ma
rine-are divided between those who
think in terms of an operating mer-
chant fleet Of, say, 1000 ships ano
those who believe we may be able
to handle as many, say, as l,5N
ships.
Maintenance Is Problem.
And there are others who see In
our present situation the distinct
possibility that, except in a few
special categories, we may be head
ing for a period when We will have
no real merchant fleet at all.
For a time, of course, we will not
lose all the advantages of the great
amanda OF shipping we built during
the war. We will keep good ships
which we cannot absorb in oul
peacetime economy and do not sci
abroad in cold storage" in a reserve
fleet, ready for use if we need them
How long these ships will be SER
yiceable is a moot question, however
In the first place, their maintenance
will depend on the willingness o1
Congress to vote funds for the pur-
pose. In the second place, these
ships will undoubtedly become obso-
lete in decade or so.
The real test of our maritime
strength, in other words, will be the
fleet we are able to keep up-to-date
and in service.
There is no question then, OF oul
being abe to keep and use what We
now have by way of ships. Nor il
there question but that we are
destined to drop back at least tt
our prewar position as a bad secone
among merchant maritime powers
Great Britain, exclusive of thu
dominions, probably will level of
with a fleet of about 1000 ships
perhaps within four years. Othe'