Toledo union journal. [volume] (Toledo, Ohio) 1942-current, 1946-10-25
Washington
|LaborReport
BY CARTER BRADFORD
LPA Columnist

Two sets of predictions are
making the rounds here in
Washington.
One set deals with expectation
that the Republicans will take
over the control of the House of
Representatives and possibly the
Senate. The other involves pre-
dictionS that by the spring of
1947, we shall have an economic
recession of some sort on our
hands.
AS matters size up now, the
politicos of whatever complex
ion feel fairly certain that the
Republicans will capture the
House. They are not quite so
certain that the Senate will fall
to the COP. These conjectures,
the recent Gallup poll has con-
firmed.
Nobody is under any illusions
that the accession of the Repub-
licans will make any difference,
one way or the other, in the to-
tai voting record of Congress.
1t may make some people feel
better to know that the Republi-
cans will be able to assume COM
plete responsibility for reaction
instead of sharing it with their
blood brothers on the other side
of the legislative chambers.
ANTI.DEMOCRAT
The forces that will bring the
Republicans to power will not
be pro-Republican but anti
Democrat. No political admin
istration can be associated with
the debacle of 1945-46 and
emerge unscathed. Nor does it
deserve to remain unscathed.
Never has responsibility been
more glaring. On paper, Mr..
Truman'S broad policies did not
shape up too badly. But the
Presidents marching orders in
one direction were the signal for
his presumed followers to march
off in precisely the opposite di-
rection.
If it is true that the Demo-
craatS deserve to be busted it
doesn't follow that the Republi-
cans deserve to be the benefici-
aries. 1t is only possible because
there is no other choice.
The state of the economic arts
is not so far advanced that the
recession of 1947 can be forecast
with the same dgree of certainty
that the crystal gazers see a
Republican Congressional vic
tory. Ever since our side pre-
dicted 8 million unemployed by
this time (there are supposed to
be about 2 million unemployed
now we're a little more humble
about calling our shots.
IN DEFENSE
At that, it should be said in
defense, that we may, as a mat
ter of fact, be closer to the 8
million unemployed than many
believe. There is much unem-
ployment that doesn't show up
in the certified estimates. The
Steelman report which we talk
ed about two weeks ago suggests
that a million or so ex-GPs are
not looking for work and there
fore are not counted as unem-
ployed. Another few million
women have withdrawn from
the labor force. They don't count
In the unemployed. In the case
of both the GI's and the women,
a sizeable proportion are not
looking for work because there
is no work to be had at any
thing like decent wages.
The main reason for predict
ing a spring 1947 recession is
that high prices have drained
off reserve purchasing power
that would have gone into buy
ing more goods. The way in
which the stock market has been
breaking consistently shows up
the jittery feeling that Wall St.
has about what is going to hap
pen in the next six monhs.
II the spring 1947 recession
does come, many economists
believe that it will simply be a
rehearsal for the really big bust
which won't come until after the
recession will be succeeded by a
measure of recovery. The early
1950's is the date when the
economics boys are figuring our
depression will really hit us, un-
less we are of a mind to do a
little advance planning.