Evening star., 1945-08-20
japanese 'StoIIine' !
Doubted by Observer

DouDted by observer
Banking on American Lassituds
For Brief Occupation, He Adds
By David Laurence
4 What Japan has done since announc-
ing her acceptance of surrender terms
may appear to some observers as STALL
ing" or as the adoption Of q sullen.
vengeful mood with a reluctance to
acknowledge defeat. But logic doesn't
support such an Interpretation.
What would the Japanese have to
gain by such tactics? They know they
have had to accept the severely worded
surrender document proclaimed from
Potsdam and that it shortly will be
put into actual effect What good then
would come from baking now?
A much more logical Interpretation
Is that the Japanese internal situation
and the mechanics of arranging the
surrender have been real obstacles.
What is more plausible at the moment
Is to assume that the Japanese will
comply to the letter of our demands
and to examine such course and see
what 1t really means to the Allies who
have made such big sacrifices to win
the war. The chances of the Japanese
deceiving and outwitting us lie not in
raising obstacles now, but in giving
full acceptance to our demands.
Theory Half Worked Out.
This correspondent several months
ago had conversation with one of the
highest officers in our armed services
and expressed the opinion that if there
were logic from the Japanese viewpoint
in certain theory or plan, the sur
render would come without an invasion
and within q short time after our
naval and air bombardment had started.
The theory is interesting to relate now
because half of it has worked out, but
the other half remains yet to be full
filled.
The theory was that the Japanese
business and industrial leaders would
not wish to see their plants and fac
tories completely destroyed and would
approach their own military leaders
with program for surrender strategy.
Obviously the militarists who had been
trained in the psychology of bitter-end
resistance would not agree unless they
could be convinced that there was a
chance for eventual victory, perhaps a
decade or more hence.
IF we fight on" the Japanese indus
trialists might be imagined as saying,
I'VE lose everything. No nation will lend
us money for reconstruction. We will
become weak and powerless and the
pawn OF other nations in the Far East.
We must preserve our manufacturing
plants If we possibly can. 1t will be
hard for us to do it but we must surren-
der. Then we will receive an occupying
army. We must do everything in our
power to make the stay Of those foreign
troops as short as possible. Supposing
they stay as long as five years, what
difference does that make in the life of
the nation?
"Know American People"
I'VE know the American people They
don't like to keep large standing armies
anywhere. The moment we surrender,
there will be clamor for their bows to
come home. When we surrender, we
must be as nice as possible to those
Americans-they will go home faster.
Then, when they go back home, we1l
have our country back in our own con-
troll and we can build up a big enough
force to protect ourselves-if not against
America again, certainly against any
Far Eastern power that may not be
treating us as equals or giving us the
opportunities we want for commercial
expansion. If we are wise next time, we
will try to win American public opinion
to our side because China will be big
disappointment to them as an ally
they will have continuation of civil
war there and sooner or later the
Americans will get tired of supplying
money and munitions for a civil war;"
The high officer in question conceded
that the above-outlined argument might
sound persuasive to the japanese, and
about two months later he mentioned
tnat tne tneory was getting wider
support in the circles in which he moved.
What does it all mean? Namely that
the Japanese may have few indiscreet
commentators or hot-heads who talk In
sullen or vengeful terms now but that
the governing forces behind the Japa-
nese government, who started last
January to engineer the making of
peace, are banking on American lassi-
tude or at least withdrawal of our
occupying armies within a short space
Of time.
It wouldn't be surprising if some of
the Japanese even tossed flowers at the
Invading" troops if the Tokyo govern
ment's propaganda tells them to do so.
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