Evening star., 1945-04-15
European Wars End
Nav PiecemeoI
Commentator Thinks Japs May
Quit Before Germans Do
Bu OUen L. Scott.

BIZ OUen L. Scott.
A strange type of war ending appears
to be ahead in Europe. This war ending
apparently will be for official purposes
| only and will be followed by continued
| fighting that may involve large numbers
| of men.
The problem of ending Europe's war
is complicated by the fact of war in
| the Pacific. At present, most United
States emphasis is on producing and
shipping war supplies, as we'll as re-
| placements of men, to the European
theater There will come time when
the bulk of Germany's armies will be
destroyed and when the direction of this
| flow can be reversed. That will be the
time of an official decision that there
| is an end to the war against Germany.
This decision of Gen. Eisenhower will
permit the Government to get under
way many of its plans for shifting forces
to the Pacific and for starting reconver-
sion Of industry from a war to a peace
basis in the United States. 1t is a
decision that has to be made at some
point, or else this countrys effort would
continue to be centered on grinding out
war materials and on drafting men for
a war that no longer required the majo
effort directed into it.
Even so, after it is decided that Eu-
ropes war is ended for planning pur-
poses, there is likely, in reality, to be a
continuing two front war. The differ
ence will be that Europes war probably
will be of a guerrilla type. carried out in
the mountain area of Southeastern Eu-
. rope, in the mountains of Northern Italy
and maybe in the mountains of Norway.
That type of war will not require the
! masses of men, the vast air forces and
the immense quantities of equipment
that are going into the conquest of most
Of Germany.
It is because of the prospect Of guer-
rilla war in Europe going on While the
| major war is being fought in the Pacific
that plans for recovering United States
industry to a peace basis are not geared
to sharper shift Actually, on the
basis of existing plans, the shift will be
gradual.
Industry will face cutback Of IS to
! 20 per cent in war business during the
weeks following the official decision that
war in Europe is over. That reduction.
I on an annual basis, will represent about
S12 600 000 900, which is a very stable
amount but not anything compared with
the cutback that will come after war
ends in the Pacific.
All kinds of results will flow from Of
fetal plans for this period.
The cutback in war business will re-
lease men, materials and machines for
production of civilian durable goods.
The automobile industry will begin to
reconvert TO automobile making. In
dustries that normally made household
equipment of many kinds will start to
reconvert to making of refrigerators,
washing machines vacuum cleaners,
maybe radios, and many other things.
Gasoline rations can be increased in
this period. 1t is doubtful, however, if
there will be any material increase in
shoe rations or sugar rations or food
rationS generally until number Of
months later The food situation and
the clothing situation should ease up
by autumn.
Draft calls will be reduced as re-
placement needs decline, but the Army
may continue to want more men than
can be supplied from draft of l7-year-
oldS becoming IS. Demobilization of
men from Army service, too, will be
slower than would be the case if there
were a clean-cut ending to the war in
Europe.
If the final stage of the war against
Germany involves the type of develop
ment that apparently it is to involve,
there is likely to be good deal of dis
appointment on the part of the Amer
ican people. There certainly will be
little ground for any big celebration
when Gen. Eisenhower decides that the
phase of large-scale fighting is ended
Unless all fighting is ended, there will
continue to be casualties in Europe that
could be on an appreciabe scale as Ger
man troops were being dug out of their
mountain strongholds.
In fact the idea is being advanced by
some officials that the war against
Japan could be ended before the last
German division had been forced to
surrender. The Japanese are finding
themselves in very bad way. They are
to be in even worse shape at the end of
three to six months and could decide
that there was more to be gained by
surrender than by going through to a
fight of the bitter-end variety Under
circumstances Of that kind, there could
be Germans fighting after japanese had
given up. Or there could be guerrilla re-
sistance by both Germans and japanese
in out-of -the-way places.
These wars. or the German war at
least are taking on more and more
characteristics, of a revolution. 1t
obviously is Hltler's intent to cause as
much confusion as possible in the hope
that the Allies will not be able to do
much with their victory once they get
it. The longer fighting is prolonged and
the greater the destruction, the more
difficult will be the adjustments that
must follow the war.
An interesting point is that Hitler's
last ditch fight is likely to be made in
the part of Germany that the United
States is to occupy. 1t is doubtful, how
ever, whether this country will be ex-
pected to handle the guerrilla forces all
by itself. Signs do point to a strange
ending of ElropeS most devastating war