Evening star., 1945-07-17
Jopon Muy Surrender
Within Six Months
Strength of Defenses Now Found
Overestimated, Says Observer
BY David Laurence

- ~~~S y -
By Dauid Laurence
The epoch-making assault on the
mainland Of Japan by the United States
Navy makes 1t possible to revise all
estimates as to the duration of the war.
This correspondent was told by COM
petent military men shortly after We
day that 1t was reasonable to expect
victory over Japan not later than the
ending of the year 1947.
Now, however, information is avail
able as to the resistance that can be
offered by the Japanese to our fleet
bombardment and it may be assumed
that the outer limit of the time for
victory over Japan may be reduced to
the end of I946.
To put 1t another way, the Japanese
surrender may come suddenly in the
next six months but, II 1t does not, then
defeat is certain to be inflicted 50 that
organized resistance on the mainland OF
Japan will be crushed before the end
Of 1946.
Optimism Prevails.
Considerable optimism prevails here
as consequence Of the bold raid of the
American naval feet on the largest
island in the northern segment Of the
japanese Archipelago. The fact that no
shore batteries resisted may mean either
that there were none constructed there
or that ammunition is at a premium.
Also Japanese defenses may be weak be-
cause Of the already depleted supply Of
airplanes.
1t may well be that the strength of the
Japanese has been overestimated and
that observers have underestimated the
powerful blows inflicted by the B-29s
and the naval air bombing from our
carrier task forces.
Naturally, military men cannot build
plans on mere guesses as to what Japan's
strength really is. The American con-
cept has been to bring to bear a maxi
mum effort on concentrated areas so az
to make sure the objectives are attained.
Thus no chances were taken in the
Philippines, where more than enough
troops were landed so as to make assur-
ance doubly sure.
Since the American task forces can
roam up and down the Japanese coast
at will and supplement what the B-2ss
are doing, the combined effort of our
Army and Navy in the next six months
should be such as to pulverize much of
japanese industry and her communica-
tions.
Russia might play part in the cli-
max of the whole situation, for OBJ
servers familiar with the terrain say
the Siberian armies could be most eff
fective when the ground is frozen.
Whether or not Russia means to enter
the war Is a well-guarded secret Pre-
sumably Marshal Stain and Prime Min
lister Churchill and President Truman
can have some off-the-record talks
about 1t in Berlin and the rest of the
world would not be any wiser. II is
significant, however, that the Japanese
propagandists over the radio are more
and more anti-Russian in their COM
ments, which Is somewhat of change
from the recent occasions when they
displayed the utmost friendliness toward
Russia.
Russian Policy Is Aid.
Whatever Russia's intentions are, her
policy is playing part already because
she is keeping many divisions on the
borders of Manchuria and thus tieing
UP a large number Of Japanese troops.
If the American naval bombardments
continue and the bombing by the Army
air crews-which is expected to be
launched in progressively more power
full units right along from now on
should demoralize communications in
Japan, the time for the invasion might
conceivably be moved up.
An invasion, of course, Is being
planned. That much has been forecast
by our own military leaders. 1t may
be taken for granted that several months
after We day must elapse before our
huge armies can be brought to the
Pacific. But with bombers operating
from the numerous airfields available
from Okinawa and from the Marianas
plus the strength of our feet, Japan
in the next 90 days will have a real
taste of the destructive power which
can be loosed against her before the
invasion is ready.
Men nigh up In our armed services
who know the Far Eastern situation
and the habits of thinking of the
Japanese are predicting that the jap
anese leaders viii not take the beating.
but will surrender before Christmas.
If, on the other hand, invasion is neces-
sary to assure surrender. it certainly is
not going to be delayed very long into
1916 now that our feet has felt out the
Japanese defenses.