Evening star., 1945-12-02
Doubts That Russia
Will Get Out Of Iran
Quest for Warm-Water Outlet
Seen Behind Present Tactics
By Joseph II. Baird.

By Joseph II. Baird.
The diplomatic history of Russia is
largely the story of a struggle for warm
water ports. A country of tremendous
| land area and vast internal resources,
it has been eternally plagued by its lack
| OF satisfactory year-round access to-
| channels for maritime commerce with
other nations.
In the north only Murmansk, due to
the kindly influence Of the Gulf Stream,
is open to commerce through the WIN
ter. 1t is connected only by a single,
ill-equipped rail line to the big cities
OF Russia to the south. On the Pa
cific SIDE, the big port Of Vladivostok
is frozen over for several months in
winter. In the south Russia has never
had full control of a rail-water route
to either the Mediterranean Sea or the
Indian Ocean, for the Dardenelles-
the connecting link between the Black
Sea and the Mediterranean-are under
basic Turkish sovereignty, although
various international arrangements have
been made to insure their use by all
nations.
This historic situation, diplomats
here believe, holds the key to current
Soviet policy in Iran, although, to COM
plete the picture, there must be added
the factor of Moscow's interest in that
lifeblood of modern industry and war
Oil. But, basically, the Soviet Unions
obvious efforts to dominate the Northern
1ranlan province of Azerbaijan through
puppet government such as those
which Russia has established in the
Balkans is viewed here as the first
step IN a campaign to obtain Russian
controlled rail line through Iran con-
Meeting the Caspian Sea with the
Persian Gulf.
Granted such line, Russia would be
insured year-'round access to the DO
tentially vast markets of the Far East.
Volumes could be-and have been
written on Russias age-long efforts to
secure a route of communications
through the Middle East. In the 18th
century, during the reign of Catherine
the Great, her general and lover,
Potemkin, tried vainly to conquer Turkey
in order to guarantee a route to the
Mediterranean.
Nor is the story of Russian imperial
ism in Iran new one. The first Rus
sian mission was sent to what was
then Persia as early as 1864. In the
early 18th century, after the collapse
occupied the northwest provinces. Per-
sian trade and foreign policy became
subject to Russia, and it is notable that
the first capitulations in the land of
the Shahs was obtained by st. Peters,
burg.
After Russia's defeat by Japan in 1905.
her international position became weak
er and the British, through diplomatic
pressure, forced the Car in 1907 to sign
treaty under which Persia was divided
into northern and southern zone
OF infiuence-the former dominated by
st. Petersburg and the latter by London.
During the latter World War period
Russian influence was eclipsed, and, in
fact, British troops temporarily occupied
the Province Of Azerbaijan in order to
checkmate a possible German advance
through the Near East to India.
x*x
After the Bolshevik revolution, during
the days when the Communists were
railing against all forms Of imperial
ism" and preaching the brotherhood of
the common man, Moscow signed a
treaty with Iran abrogating its extra
territorial rights there. In recent weeks
the Soviet press has constantly harped
on this fact as refutation of foreign
charges that Russia is following an
"imperialistic' policy in the country to
the south.
Iran became one of the original men,
bers OF the League OF Nations and for
two decades-until the Anglo Russian
occupation in the fall of 1941-made
rapid strides in attaining real inde-
pendence, except for the influence en-
joyed by foreign oil concessionaires.
During this period railroad was built
connecting the Caspian Sea with the
Persian Gulf-entirely with Iranian
capital-and considerable economic and
political progress was made.
Events of the last month, however,
have made it evident to diplomats here
that Trans era of independence is prob
ably approaching an end. And this
despite definite international commit
ments.
When the British and Russians sent
troops into Iran in September, 1941, it
was on the understanding that they
would be evacuated within six months
after the end of the war. This COM
mitment was further bulwarked by
the Teheran declaration in 1943 by the
United States, Great Britain and Rus
s1a that they would respect the "inde-
pendence, sovereignty and territorial in
tegrity" of Iran. (The United States
sent service troops there after its en-
trance into the war to operate the Sup
ply line" to Russia from the Persian
Gulf to the Caspian Sea-
Most of the American troops have
been withdrawn, and the British have
stated their willingness to abide by the
terms of the agreement provided the
Russians do. However, diplomatic
sources here find increasing reason to
doubt that the Red Army will leave Iran
when the departure deadline arrives
| next March.
X \
Long before the recent Russian
inspired separatist uprising in Azer-