Evening star., 1945-08-12
British Doubt Success
Of Redesigned Europe
Observer Sees Russia Unable
To Supply Consumer Needs
By OUen L. Scott

To Supply Consumer Needs
By O,Den L. Scott
There is doubt in Washington that the
redesigned Europe agreed upon by the
Big Three will work other than on
socialistic or communistic basis, If it
will work on that basis. The doubt is
! appearing now that the real meaning of
| decisions reached at Potsdam has had
time to sink in. There also is begin
ming to be some question concerning the
wisdom of having potential troublespots
| in the world now that one atomic bomb,
in wrong hands, can do so much
damage.
The Big Three decided to tear down
the industrial structure of the No. 2
industrial power of the world. At the
same time, no assurance was given that
other areas of equal productivity and
efficiency will be built UP quickly to
take the place Of the destroyed power.
The result is a near guarantee of lower
living standards in Europe-with re-
sulting political trouble-unless the
United States is to underwrite Europe's
prosperity.
What was agreed upon simply is this:
Germany Is to be reduced to the
status of an agricultural nation with
domestic industry capable only of as
suring production of enough consumer
| type goods to assure living standard
equal to the low average of Europe. The
Germans are to lose some of their best
agricultural lands in the east and are
to lose the Silesian industrial area
with its large deposits Of coal and
minerals and its extensive industries.
Into this smaller Germany-which later
may be whitfield down further in the
weSt-gradually will be dumped about
100000 Germans from the areas going
to Russia and Poland and from Czecho-
slovakia and Hungary.
1t is agreed further that within six
months there will be an inventory Of
all industry in the Ruhr and other in
dustrial areas of Western Germany.
Only enough of this industry will be
left to permit the Germans the agreed
upon low living standard The remain
der will be removed, with Russia to get
Is per cent of the total to be removed.
Russia is to get all of the surplus"
industrial equipment OF Eastern Ger
many
This is the type of settlement advo-
Gated by Bernard Baruch and Henry
Morgenthau. 1t is highly satisfactory
to the Russians, who now have nailed
down the kind of deal that they wanted
in the British and American zones of
occupied Germany. They also have
nailed down United States and British
agreement to an eastern boundary of
Germany that fulfills all Russian ex-
pectatlons, In return, the United States
and Britain apparently get the right to
send some newspaper correspondents
into Eastern Europe. Russia also is to
ship some food and other materials
from her part of Germany.
1t now is agreed that German industry
is to be dismantled and this market de-
stroyed. There is no assurance that any
early substitute to Germany can be sup
| piled. Russia gets much of Germanys
industrial equipment but it is highly
doubtful that Russia will be able to
supply to Eastern Europe the manufac-
tured goods that are SO badly needed. 1t
also is doubtful If Russia will use her
industry to promote revival of cap
italist type of economy in Europe. Po-
land gets many of Germany's raw mate
tion of her industry. but it still has to
be demonstrated that the Poles are suf-
flcient industrialists.
Czechoslovakia might fill part of the
role that Germany is forced'to give up
but the Czech industries are likely to be
required to orient themselves toward
Russia and not to Europe generally. Bel
GUM and France can make gains indus
trially but markets for their products
will have to be found outside of Ger
many which normally was the big i'm
porter on the continent.
y Il -
Actually. however, it is expected that
the United States will fill much of the
vacuum to be left as Germany is trans
formed into an agricultural state. This
country will be expected to supply dollars
to nations of Eastern Europe so that
they can supply their desperate needs
for manufactured goods-needs that
Russia cannot supply. The United States,
too, is to provide dollars to put the coun-
tries of Western Europe back on their
feet again.
The result probably is to be period
of better times as dollar loans are being
spent and as goods flow to European ma
tions other than Germany. This means
that test of the Potsdam policies prob
ably will be delayed for few years while
the United States is helping to rebuild
Europe on credit basis. The payoff
will come when it is time to make good
on borrowing and when the new Europe
must try to stand on its own feet.
The British, who are close to the Euro
pean problem, apparently think so little
Of the chance of success of the setup
now being devised that they are turning
to socialism at home ip the hope that
they can be prepared to meet the shocks
that they must think lie ahead. The
chances that the newly designed Europe
can be made to work on basis of pre-
war type capitalism is far from great.
| (Eeleased by Consolidated News Features, Inc
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