Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1945-08-19
Millions JobIess Seen
In Generalization
Commentator Expects Unem-
ployment to Be Political Issue
Ri Omen L. Scott

BIZ O1Den L. Scott.
Almost all of the problems that were
so bothersome before the war WILL be
back on this country's doorstep in lew
months now that fighting has stopped.
The present administration is without
settled plans for dealing with those
problems.
Generalization of both war industry
and the armed services is to be carried
out at rate much more rapid than the
rate at which peacetime industry can
expand to take up the slack. The result
is that as many as 100000 men may
be out of work by the end of 1945. That
number may reach 100000 before ex-
panding industry catches up with the
| full effect of demobilizat ton. Some con-
sentative officials are estimating that
| there will be 100000 unemployed even
| in the boom period of postwar recovery.
A few big but important figures reveal
| what the trouble is to be. Total war
| expenditures have been around $50 ,000,-
100000 year. But this is being reduced
| quickly and drastically. There is to be
great shrinkage, too, in the number
| OF men in service. At present the
armed forces contain 100000 men.
Under the law, once hostilities off,
cially are terminated, the services must
discharge men within six months.
| That may be a physical impossibilitv
unless the White House and Congress
delay formal declaration that the war
is ended. Under any circumstances, at
least, 100000 men should be out CT
service within six months and most of
the remainder within another six
months. 1t is going to be difficult to
hold in service the nearly 100000 men
country.
Private industry hardly can be ex-
pected at once to absorb into its opera
tons the 100000 or 100000 men who
are to be let out of war plant opera
tons, plus the millions to be let out of
service. Industry will be having its own
troubles during the first postwar months.
All of the heavier industries have been
fully occupied with war work, with little
chance to make progress in reconversion,
right up to the end.
There is the basis, however, for rapid
recovery in industry and record high
level of peacetime activity. In fact, it IS
entirely possible that this country will
enjoy several years Of apparent pros
perity for persons with jobs while there
will be large number of persons out
of work and dependent upon. Govern
ment for livelihood.
Demand for civilian goods of all kinds
and for new homes will be at very
high level. That demand, in turn, is to
be backed by an immense supply of dol
lars in the hands of individuals.
At this time individuals have about
s66, 100000 in cash and in deposits
in banks. They hold another s44,0O0.-
100000 in Government bonds, most of
them savings bonds which can be cashed
readily. That makes a total of S1l0-
000,000,0 900 which could be spent from
savings in addition to spending from
current income. On top of that is to be
large volume of credit Installment
credit has contracted near to the van
lshing point during the war It now
is open to wide expansion as people
finance purchase of new cars, new re-
frlgerators and other household equip
ment. Mortgage credit, too, has been
paid down during the war. Construc-
ton of new homes has been stopped for
more than three years and there now
is to be a big volume of construction
financed on easy terms. Veterans, too.
can borrow up to $4,000 each for
variety of enterprises
All of the elements Of consumer
buying boom now are present. To get
ready to supply the demands that will
grow out of postwar spending industry
has about s20,o0O0 100000 of cash and
Government bonds of its own. part Of
which can be turned into new plant and
equipment.
1t is probable that next year will be
very active year in industries that
supply civilians. People during 1916
and l947 will be stocking up on articles
that they were unable to obtain during
the war years. After that things may
level off. 1t is expected that before the
peak is reached in buying by consumers
in the United States export trade will
be expanding rapidly, financed by large
scale loans that now can be offered.
Despite all of this activity there still
will be some idle plants and idle men.
Unemployment almost surely is to be a
postwar political issue. Out of unem-
ployment will grow demands for Gov
eminent operation of some war plants
and for guarantees that will assure all
individuals who want to work a chance
to work
The prospect is strong that the Tru-
man administration, which now ap-
pears to be conservative in its basic
attitude, will swing somewhat to the
left as election time comes both In 194s
and again in 1913. 1t will seek to hold
the labor support that assured the reg
ular reelection of former President
Roosevelt
An end to war is not to bring with 1t
an end to problems or an era of good
feeling either at home or abroad. The
war settled the fact that Germany and
Japan are not to be the No. nations of
the world, but it has not settled a good
many other issues of very great i'm
portance
Close Shove
From the New York Herald Tribune.
A Royal Air Force bombing of Ger
man experimental plant on the Baltic