Evening star., 1945-01-07
Hope for Early Victory
Wanes as New Year Opens
Need to Transport Huge Quantity of Supplies and
Equipment and Troops for Replacement to
Delay Final Crushing of Nazis
BY Constantine Br0wn

BY Consfan
The Allies started the new year in a
less happy frame Of mind than IL
months ago.
In January of last year most people
in the United Nations believed we we're
approaching the end of long and costly
road and that our trials were about
over. The results of the Moscow and
Teheran conferences had laid to rest our
fears.
The military picture at the beginning
Of 1945 is far less optimistic.
We are stymied in Italy, where the
forces of 1t. Gen. Mark Clark are max
ing only insignificant progress. They ad-
vance a couple of hundred yards one
day and lose part Of their gains the next.
Weather conditions are such that no
large-scale operations are possible be-
fore late next spring. In the meantime,
the casualties, particularly sicknesses Of
men due to the raw climate in the
mountains, are mounting and are not
proportionate to the scope of our mill
tary operations in that area.
On the western front the situation is
equally unsatisfactory. The surprise Of
fensive launched by Field Marshal Won
Rundstedt on December 16 has thrown
out of gear the strategic plans Of Gen.
Eisenhower, which called for limited
success before the end Of 1944-the
cleaning up of the western bank Of the
Rhine.
Action to Be Limited.
Regardless of whether the Germans
are pushed back to the positions from
which they started their counterof-
fensive, the American and British op-
erations will have to be limited, in the
event Won Rundstedt withdraws his
forces, to minor operations. 1t is ad-
mitted in the highest military circles
that it will take us at least three months,
and probably longer, to replace our
heavy losses of the last three weeks.
New units have to be sent from the
United States and Great Britain to I'LL
the gaps in the divisions of the 1st and
Sd Armies. A large quantity of war
material will have to be rushed across
the Atlantic to France to replace the
hundreds of guns and tanks lost in
battle
Most of these requirements of men
and material must come from the United
States, 5000 miles from the front. And
that will require time At this writing,
it is difficult to say whether the Ger
mans have SUFFICIENT reserves to make
a strong offensive either in the south
against the American 7th Army and the
French 1st Army in Alsace, or possibly
north of Aachen in the area of the Brit
ish forces and the American 9Th Army.
But If we accept the optimistic view
that Won Rundstedt's divisions have SUI
fered very heavily and he has no fur
ther reserves to attack us elsewhere, we
must be prepared for lull on the west
ern front. until late In April or May,
Failure or inability Of our Russian
allies to attack from the east as agreed
to at Teheran has had more than q
military effect on the war. Studies of
the German propaganda in the last 10
months showed q distinct concern of
the Nazi leaders lest the German morale
on the home front crumble under the
impact of an early simultaneous Allied
offensive. The power of the Gestapo
to uphold" the morale is not unlimited
and the consensus among many re-
sponsible Allied leaders is that, had the
Russians kept their pledge, there might
have been breakdown even among the
Gestapo rank and file.
Morale at Lowest.
After the July plot against Hitler
German morale was at its lowest ebb.
The Germans, from the top Nazis to
the most humble citizen of the Reich.
were concerned with the preservation
of their country and their skin. The
detection of the Romanian and Bull
garian satellites and the defeat of Fin
land had no effect on the German
people or on their leaders so long as
these were not linked with an invasion
of German territory from the east and
the west.
When this did not come the Germans
took heart. They knew the limitations
of the Allied forces in the west, which
were separated from their main supply
bases by so many miles of land and
water. They raised the morale of their
people, first by the production Of the
v weapons and later by preparing them
selves to strike back at the Allies. They
could do this so long as their military
supplies did not have to be divided
equally between the western and the
eastern fronts The December counter
offensive was the greatest shot In the
arm the German people had had in
three years. Once more they think that
the war may turn in their favor.
The open quarrels which have broken
into the open between the various men,
bers of the United Nations tend to en-
courage the German people. From the
practical point of view, the United Ma
tions are today only name. There is
no political unity anywhere. The Rus
slams are following a political plan of
their own which consists of taking hold
of all the little countries which had
been promised full independence and
sovereignty by the promoters of the
ideals Of the Atlantic Charter.
The Red armies have sacrificed sound
military strategy in order to achieve
the political aims of the Kremlin.
Large Russian forces are engaged in
military actions In the Balkans and in
Central Europe, where the Germans
have only small number of divisions
probably not more than 80. The small
nations, such as Yugoslavia and the
newly created Macedonian republic,