Evening star., 1945-04-06
jap Moves Waited
As Mystery Of Hour
Observer Doubts Nipponese Will
Answer Russia by Attack
Bv David Laurence

By David Laurence
Japan's intentions rather than Rus
sia's plans or purposes become the mys-
terry of the hour now that notification
of the canceling of the Moscow Tokyo
neutrality pact-as of one year hence
has been formally announced.
Will Japan attack Russia? The answer
Is, probably in the negative. The Jap
anese have their hands full fighting the
United States and it's Allies in the Pa
cific. To attack Russia means the di-
viding of Japanese land forces and the
draining of air power and material re-
sources. An attack on Russia by ia
pan would help the United States and
hurt the Tokyo regime.
The Japanese will take note Of the
fact that the Russo-Japanese neutrality
pact has by no means expired but has
year to run. Only notification of an
intention to terminate on April 13,
1916, has been given. The wording of
the Russian statement indicates that
the Soviet Union intends to abide by
the neutrality pact for one year unless
Japan does something to provoke re-
taliation.
The Japanese will probably make
every effort to avoid giving Russia any
justification for entering the war. The
Russians, on the other hand, are pretty
well absorbed in the European theater
of operations and may not be ready to
take on a war on the Siberian front.
Reds Have Kept Pledge.
So 1t may be that no hostilities will
result from the announcement for
while though the japanese may find
it necessary to retain big armies on
the Manchurian border of Siberia which
might otherwise be deployed in China
or against an American invasion of
Japan.
The japanese have absolutely no evil
dence that the Russians will not scrupu-
lousy maintain neutrality for the full
year ending April 13, 1916. They may
suspect the Russians of becoming hos
tile when the war in Europe is over
but they cannot charge the Russians
with any violation of neutrality. The
mere fact that the treaty has been in
existence for more than four years with
out any overt act on the part OF the
Soviety that could give the Japanese
grounds for protest is proof that the
Russians intend to abide by their writ
ten pledge.
From an American viewpoint, the
war would, Of course, be affected mate
rally by any Russian aid in the Far
East. 1t would, for instance, open up
new supply problems for us and require
increased shipping. Certainly full
fledged war in the Siberian theater
could hardly be supplied over the meager
transportation facilities available along
the Trans Siberian Railroad. Also navi-
CATION in the Northern Pacific, by both
ship and plane. is narrowed to certain
months of the year due to ice and fog
A glance at the map will show how
narrow are the straits which approach
Siberian ports and how dangerous and
difficult it would be to try to operate
supply routes in the North Pacific.
The present campaign on Okinawa
comes at most opportune time. For
if the United States Fleet is successful
in warding off japanese attacks from
the air and from surface ships, the
possession of such an important gateway
to China, Korea and Manchuria cannot
but cause much gloom in Japan.
Will Japan decide to fight 1t out with
the American Fleet soon? The cabinet
shake-up in Tokyo may mean that the
army there is critical of the navy. The
japanese Navy. with its air arm, has
been repeatedly defeated as the Amer
leans have progressed nearer and nearer
to Japan, whereas the japanese Army
has been successful in China not only
against the Chinese, but in driving
| Americans from important bases.
Decisive Stroke Possible.
1t may be that the japanese Army
| leaders will insist that the navy apply
a decisive stroke against the American
Navy. AS our naval forces approach CLOSE
to Japan, land-based planes plus Jap.
anese surface ships and aircraft car
riers could make sudden dash against
segments of our fleet roaming the
waters near Japan. If unsuccessful
the war may conceivably be shortened
| If successful we would suffer a serious
setback
Certainly the news from Moscow
cannot but strike terror in Tokyo. 1
means that a substantial portion o.
Japanese military strength must bt
immobilized to watch Russia. 1t seem!
foolish for the japanese to attack tn
Russians as has hitherto been predicted
But such beliefs were expressed befor'
the American land, sea andA air force
had gotten so close to japan and hae
taken such strategic bases as Two Jims
and Okinawa.
Japan undoubtedly hopes Russia viii
fulfill the year of neutrality left undel
the pact, but Japan also must know
that Russia's newly announced position
has caused widespread qualification II
| America and has encouraged the belief
that positive aid or benevolent neu.
trality will some day be Forthcoming
from Russia in the Far East. Maybe
the japanese Navy will make suicide
run, sacrifice it's fleet, and the Japanes.
cabinet will then accept unconditional
surrender with the excuse that Ger.
many and Italy have failed.
The global war is certainly moving
! toward climax.
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