Evening star., 1945-08-01
japan Believed Here
On Verge Of Collapse
Question Is When Surrender Step
Will Be Taken, Says Writer
By David Laurence

Will Be Taken, Says Writer
By David Laurence
The publicly announced decision OF
the Japanese cabinet to ignore the sur
render ultimatum served by the United
States, Great Britain and China has
not altered the view held here that
Japan is on the verge of collapse.
The big question is not whether Japan
will surrender but when that step will
be taken. Will the Japanese force the
Allies to invade? The assumption that
air war alone can bring about the sur
render is not as widely accepted inside
as outside Washington. The same boasts
about what air bombing can do are
being made again as they were in 1943,
but not until the infantry was landed
on the coast of Normandy In 1914 and
the land operations became extensive in
1s45 did the German Army begin to
disintegrate Despite the widespread
publicity given air bombing, there are
reports indicating that German industry
was only partially destroyed and that
substantial amount of it remains today
for reconstruction purposes.
The air forces have declared that
they didn't bomb every target but only
selected targets. They did tremendous
| Job as 1t was, but there is no need 10
exaggerate what air bombing itself can
| do AS matter Of fact, statements from
captured German officers who have
discussed military operations reveal that
while strategic bombing by the Allies
played its part, it was the work of the
| tactical air forces Synchronized with
artillery and tank and infantry opera
tions which destroyed German Army
communications and hastened the sur
| render.
| Records at Two Jima.
| Another example comes from the rec
ords at Two Jima. Though the Army Air
| Forces pounded the island for many
weeks before the landings and the Navy
Air Forces did also to small extent,
| the number of casualties in the Two
hospital were relatively few and when
| our Marines landed they found a sizable
| force entrenched and established in
caves.
| 1t has been revealed that substantial
| part of Germanys operations were
underground There is every reason to
believe that the Japanese have taken
somewhat similar precautions
While, therefore, the policy of notify
ing the Japanese in advance the names
| of the cities which are to be bombed is
a good publicity stunt and has GER
tain value in psychological warfare, it
may be questioned as a regular policy.
If the Japanese are formally notified
of the locations of the bombing raids,
the people can adapt themselves to such
conditions.
1t is apparent that this month the
Army Air Forces and the United States
Navy, assisted by units of the British
Navy, are clearing the way for inva-
sion. The Japanese are doubtless being
told that the invasion will never occur
because the Americans will prefer a
negotiated peace AS long as there is
hope of any wavering on this score by
the Allies, the Japanese will be en-
couraged to hold out.
Value of Ultimatum.
In sense the Potsdam ultimatum
is most helpful because it ends once
and for all the demand that "uncondi-
tional surrender be weakened by ampli-
hcation. The terms set before Japan can
be explained in greater detail but they
cannot be modified or negotiated. Hav-
ing met the demand for explanation.
inciSf that
all energies be concentrated on prose-
cutting the war.
1t may well be that the Japanese will
not be convinced until the invasion
landings begin. If that be the case then
they will in due time learn that Ameri-
can military might is adequate to de-
stroy Japanese industry and ruin her
cities. Will Japan wait till the landr
ings have occurred apd then surrender
or will she spare herself the invasion?
If the Japanese think the Allies are
bluffing about invasion and will not pay
the price, they may have to take more
punishment before some upset inside
Japan overthrows the existing regime
and forces surrender. But the end Is
not far off.
Some time between now and next
spring the japanese will wish they had
accepted the Potsdam ultimatum, and
most people here still expect Japan to
surrender in the next few months. What
is said publicly about the ultimatum is
deemed to have far less significance
than what may be going on privately in
diplomatic circles as Japan seeks to
learn when Russia will enter the war.
That may have an important bearing
on when the surrender will come.
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