Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1945-02-27
Will japan Attack
Russia in April?
Tokyo Believed to Have No
Reason to Do So, Writer Says

Tokyo Believed to Have No
Reason to Do So, Writer Says
By David Laurence
Whether Russia intends to enter the
war against Japan Is matter which
depends wholly on Moscow and Tokyo
and not on the Allies.
When the military stats met recently
at Yalta, in Russia, every precaution was
taken by the Russians to avoid becom-
ing involved in the military discussions
that relate to "global warfare" which,
of course, includes the Far Eastern
| theater.
Thus the combined chiefs of stan,
which is an Anglo-American organiza-
| ton of military chiefs. met at Malta in
the Mediterranean and not at Yalta.
| Such military conferences as were held
| at Yalta constituted an entirely differ
| ent setup which might, for lack of a
better name, be called the tripartite
military conference.
The British conferred separately with
the Russians and the Americans con-
| ferred separately with the Russians.
Each group had separate problems to
take up with the Russians in relation
to the war in Europe, where co-ordina-
ton Of military strength has now
reached some Of the final stages needed
to knock out the Nazi armies.
So far as Russian entry into the
Pacific war is concerned, there have
been discussions in the press which
point to April Is, 1915, as significant
date. By that date-Which is the same
day the San Francisco conference of
the United Nations opens-Japan or
Russia must decide whether the present
neutrality pact will be extended.
The japanese are pressing for an
other five-year extension. The Russians,
under the terms of the treaty, must give
notice by April Is, 1915, whether the
treaty is to be Cancelled. 1t has been
assumed, heretofore, that Russia either
would notify Japan of an intention to
abrogate the treaty in 1916 or would
do nothing about it.
| Third Course Open.
| There is a third course which has
been overlooked. 1t involves Russian
notification to Japan of a desire to
cancel the existing treaty and to ne
gotiate a new agreement within the
II months between April Is, 1945, and
April 25, 1916.
Such move would mean that Russia
has not yet decided on the course she
wishes to follow and needs time within
which to make up her mind. That kind
of an announcement might be mis-
interpreted by American public opinion,
but it should not be because, after all,
the Russians are not through with the
war in Europe and they may not wish
to examine Far Eastern issues until
there is clearer picture of what s
involved in military way in the
European theater.
So far as the United States is con-
cerned, while Russian help would be
appreciated, there is in no sense any
pressure to force Russia to act immedi-
ately. The problems are so compile
Gated that it may well be that Ameri-
can and British naval and land and air
forces can team up together and bring
Japan to the point of unconditional sur
render without the necessity of involv-
ing Russia in the conflict.
In any event, Tokyo has no reason
to believe at this moment that any
final decisions have been reached, and
whatever is said by Russia in April
about the expiration of the existing
treaty and desire to substitute another
treaty will not, of itself, be indicative
of what the future may bring.
There are many questions, such as
the part land armies in China are to
play in the defeat of Japan and some
troublesome matters relating to the
Communist Chinese forces, that will
have to be resolved before any unified
program of land operations could be
undertaken, even if Russia did enter
the war
Will Japan Attack Russia:
The really big uncertainty, on the
other hand, is whether Japan will de-
eide to attack Russia on April Is, 1915.
or soon thereafter. There would seem
to be no logical reason for this unless
the japanese get it into their heads
that Russia is coming into the war
anyway-something that has not the
slightest foundation insofar as any i'm
proper action on the part of Moscow
toward Tokyo is concerned.
In every respect Russia has main
tanned an aloofness from the Far
Eastern war and the British and Ameri-
can governments have respected that
position.
If there is crackup in Germany this
spring or summer the American and
British forces in the air and on the
seas can subsequently be modified for
a big attack on all sides of Japan. Per-
haps there can be a decision even
without fighting on the Asiatic main
land.
There are all kinds of possibilities In
the situation, so it would be wrong te
assume that Russia has committed her.
self to entering the war against Japan
or that the Allies have insisted or
such a commitment.
The situation in Russia is one Of
concentration on Europe, and wher
that job is done Qualification of Rus.
sian policy may be in order.
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