Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1945-02-11
Observers Think
World Is Too WuN'
President May Be Disappointed
In Hopes of World Economics
By OUen L. Scott.

In Hopes of World Economies
By OUen L. Scott.
President Roosevelt is finding that
the ace card he holds in the game Of
world rebuilding actually does not count
for as much as he had expected. He has
been confident that he could win his
points with a promise Of dollar credits
and of American goods held out to war
impoverished Allies.
When the President set out for his
meeting with Stain and Churchill, he
counted heavily upon the American dol
lar to win acceptance Of his viewpoint.
He figured that Stain would change his
ideas about the shape of boundaries and
the character of governments In Eastern
Europe in return for promise Of Amer
lean dollars and American machinery.
His idea was that Churchill might re-
wise his ideas about how Western
Europe should be ordered If he could be
assured Of dollar loans in postwar.
Actually, 1t is not working out that
simply. Mr.. Roosevelt is discovering
what some other officials discovered
earlier, namely that other nations are
not so dependent upon the dollar and
upon loans of dollars as sometimes
imagined. The President also is handi-
capped by the fact that before his prom
Uses Of loans to Britain, Russia, France
and Belgium can be fulfilled, he must
induce Congress to amend or repeal the
johnson Act that bars new loans to
nations that have defaulted upon old
loans.
Most notably, however, 1t is found
that the world is not so hard up for
dollars as often pictured
4
At present, other nations hold about
$4,000 000,00 in dollar exchange and In
gold which can be turned into dollars
at the rate Of IS to the ounce. BY the
time the war is ended, dollars and gold
holdings abroad will amount to at least
$40 ,000, 900 900, which will be q record
total. Lease-lend during the war has
enabled many countries to obtain goods
without spending dollars so that they
have built large boards that can be USE
full after the war.
Great Britain for instance, Is reported
to have accumulated about 81, soc, 600 900
in dollar exchange by drawing the dol
lars to be spent throughout much Of the
empire to London.
France has at least $4,000, 000, 900 in
gold and dollar exchange and is accurnu-
lating dollars as rapidly as American
troops spend their money in France and
the American government buys goods
there.
Switzerland has huge hoard Of dol
lars built up during the war, and so does
Sweden. Holland and Belgium are well
of in gold and exchange. South Amer
lea has accumulated dollars and gold in
the amount of nearly $4,000, 900 900.
China has very big supply of dollars
due to advances that have not been spent
and to recent payment of $4,000, 900
for helping build airports. some of which
since have been lost. Russia is not 50
well of, but Russia is busy mining gold
which she expects to exchange for dollars
after the war
This all adds up to the fact that the
world has quite a nest egg of dollars to
use in acquiring the goods and equip
ment needed to get itself started again.
Mr.. Roosevelt, therefore, lacks some Of
the leverage he might have had in try
ing to force world acceptance Of the
American viewpoint on political ques-
lions, if only the world had been some.
what more broke than it actually is
Lease-lend has served to destroy much
OF the values that the President thought
he had in his main trading card
Then there is something else that 10
occurring to lower the trading value of
dollar loans. This other factor is the
apparent determination of important
trading nations not to 60 heavily in debt
to the United States after the war, for
fear that payment eventually will be de-
manded in cash on the barrelhead
rather than in goods The world Is
tending toward organization into series
| of trading areas in which the co-operat-
| ing nations tend to complement one
another in the goods they have to ex-
| change.
Thus, Russia is building her area In
| Eastern Europe. Russia has q tightly
| controlled economy and intends to buy
| in this country only of heavy industrial
equipment and of other types Of goods
that will increase her -suf1ciency. It
| Is estimated that Russia will want to
spend in this country between $500, 000,-
900 and $1,000 100000 year for several
postwar years, which is considerably less
than some Of the reports.
| \ \ ~
Great Britain, too, is busy planning
trading area within the empire and
in Europe that will lower dependence
upon the United States. The British
are determined not to borrow dollars In
any large numbers after the war, even
II that means lowering of British stand
ards
Plans call for United States-directed
program Of development in China but
not on lavish scale. 1t is figured that
about s250,000,o0o year for three years
safely can be put into that program
There will be record foreign trade In
the early postwar years compared with
the prewar years when there was nc
lease-lend. The prospect, however, Is
that most of this trade will be on othe,
than long-term loan basis. Some of II
will be financed by loan through the pro-
posed new international bank for re-
construction and development that seems
very likely to be approved.
The idea in brief, however, that the
United States can bring the world to
heel through the promise of dollar loans