Evening star., 1945-06-03
Peace FeeIers Hint
japanese CopituIotion
But Commentator Believes War
May Continue a Year
BIZ ODen L. Scott

Internationally short of last ditch
stand is growing among those who are
well informed on conditions within that
nation. This view is supported by the
increased urgency of peace feelers that
come through China.
The Japanese obviously are trying to
get out Of the war on a basis that will
enable them to start building again for
later try at conquet. At this stage,
they are far from making offers that
could be described as involving uncon-
ditional surrender. After tasting what
Is in store for them In the months
ahead, the Japanese offers could come
nearer to meeting what this country
considers an acceptable basis.
Reasons why Japan will strive in
every way to get war settlement short
of an invasion of the home islands and
a bitter-end fight are these:
l. The Japanese Navy and Air Forces
are defeated today. They have = re-
naming nuisance value, but cannot
hope to stand off the American Navy
and Air Forces. The japanese Army is
widely dispersed throughout China and
in the islands of the Pacific. It cannot
be brought home to make a stand in
full strength against the invasion forces
that the United States can throw in.
2. Japan is highly vulnerable to sea
blockade. The japanese islands are not
self-suficient in food or in other ma
terials. The United States Navy is
capable, in months ahead, of imposing
what will amount to an air-tight
blockade that readily could force star
vation on millions of japanese. The
japanese merchant feet already is down
to less than 100000 tons and its fish,
ing feet, upon which the people de-
pend for much of their food, can be
bottled up.
3. No other major nation is 50 sus-
ceptible to air attack as Japan. In
dustry Is centered in five big cities
Those cities are inflammable and can
be destroyed one by one, as they are
being destroyed. Within six months to
year there may be no big cities left
in Japan. At the same time, Japans
railroad transportation system is very
inadequate and can be disrupted by
air attack. Its coastal shipping. upon
which the economic life of the islands
depends, can be destroyed by air ana
naval attack
4. In Japan there is no such highly
centralized political control as existed
in Germany. The japanese dynasty
and the japanese business and finan-
cial interests are not yet completely
dominated by the military. 1t Is only
natural that these more conservative
forces may want to save something
from the wreckage that Is being
wrought in Japan. The navy has
shown its inability to cope with the
American Navy, with the result that
its political power must be weakened.
The army has failed to show its abil-
ity to win on any front. Under the
circumstances the nonmilitary forces
may be able to regain the upper hand
1t is for those reasons that officials
who are close to this situation will not
be surprised if Japan is making rather
frantic efforts by the end Of this year
or early in 1916 to find a way out of
the war. The alternative will be
scale of starvation and Of destruction
such as no other nation ever has suf-
fered in modern times. American plans
for leveling Japan are on grand and
terrible scale.
This country is preparing for actual
invasion of the japanese islands. 1t
is preparing to put more troops into
Japan than it put into Europe. Yet
there always is the possibility that the
measures to be applied short OF in
vasion will be devastating enough to
bring the japanese to their knees. The
American air forces are getting or
ganized on a scale that will enable them
to drop as many tons of bombs on the
concentrated targets of Japan in one
month as they dropped on Germany in
six months. They contemplate raids in
which 10000 tons of bombs will be
dropped.
At one time there was current the
idea that the japanese government
along with Japanese industry and many
Of its people could pull back into Man
churia for prolonged resistance. The
time when that could have been done
now is gone. The reason is that there
simply is not the shipping to permit
any large-scale evacuation of the Japa-
nese islands even if that evacuation
ever was feasible.
AS result, Japan faces this simple
alternative: Either to commit suicide
by holding out to the bitter end, or to
surrender before the full weight of
American power is brought to bear,
with the assurance of President Tru-
man that there will be a chance to live
after surrender.
Odds are considered to be on the side
of surrender rather than last-ditch
resistance. Those odds have been grow
ing greater as the size Of air raids has
stepped up and as the naval blockade
has begun to pinch.
However, the dominant view Is that
Japan will strive in every way to get
terms that will permit her to save
enough to start building again for a
second try at conquest. There is no
sign that those who represent this coun-
try would be willing to do business or
that basis, or on any basis short C
absolute surrender with no formc
strings tied. Japan has not yet bee:
shown how hard the American militar
forces can hit. She may need to fe
the full weight of the impending bic