Evening star., 1945-05-25
Jap Surrender Offer
Held Probable Soon
Russian Entry in War Would Seal
Fate of Nippon, Says Observer
By David Laurence

BY David Laurence
Will Russia enter the war against
Japan? This question is often discussed
In various quarters at San Francisco
and 1t is a subject of considerable spec
ulation here, too. Ofieials Of our Gov
ernment refuse to indicate, either pub
licly or privately, any predictions, and
| the same thing Is true of officials Of the
| British government.
The speculation, therefore, outside the
! Government often takes the form OF
| analyzing what might be Russia's ad-
| vantages in going in or staying out e.
the war and what reaction possibly Is
| developing in Japan on the same SUBJ
| ject. For certainly the possibility Of
Russia's entrance into the war is as
! much considered in Tokyo as it is else
where and it cannot be overlooked that
Russia, in denouncing her neutrality
pact with Japan, specifically referred
to the latter as an aggressor state.
There have been some significant dis
patches from the Far East, too, in the
last few weeks. One of them quoted
Chinese newspaper as urging the Rus
slams to open a front in Siberia. An
other dispatch was from Toxic and
told of improvement in relations be-
tween Russia and Japan.
Diplomacy Well Known.
There can be no doubt that Japan
does not want Russia in the war. At
| tempts by diplomatic action to persuade
/ ,ot 10
treaty when the time for such notice
came last month are we'll known to have
| been made.
Why, then, does Japan want Russia
to stay out of the war in the Far East?
One reason is the virtual certainty that
Russia will ask for territorial conces-
sions at the expense of Japan. The
acquisitions commonly suggested are
those referring to Manchuria and the
restoration of Dairen, or Port Arthur,
which was wrested from Russia by ia
pan in the war of 1904. Also there has
been talk that Russia would want to
include Korea in her sphere of influence
The famous Cairo Declaration prom
ised the return of Manchuria to China
and pledged the independence of Korea
lin due course" Generalissimo Chang
| Kai-shek, the late President Roosevelt
and Prime Minister Churchill signed
that pronouncement. 1t was made be-
fore they went to Teheran, and natural
ly, since Russia was still on terms Of
neutrality with Japan at the time, the
Russians are not considered parties to
the Cairo agreement
But, it may be asked, if Manchuria
and Korea are to be taken from Japan
anyway what difference does it make
to Japan whether Russia or China be-
comes the new owner-both presumably
bode i'll for the future of Japan. Ac-
tually, however, there are reasons for
believing that the japanese, if they
had to choose between China or Russia
in Manchuria, would prefer China. This
Is because the recent ahistory of China
has shown her to be lacking in ma
tional unity and japanese business in
terests might feel that. while their
country would be giving up sovereignty
over Manchuria, a postwar partnership
between Japanese and Chinese business
interests with other foreign financing
could not impede the economic recovery
OF Japan as much as could a Russian
occupation and control
If Japan then sees advantages in
keeping Russia out of the war and
Tokyo knows that there can be no nego-
tiated peace and no terms except un-
conditional surrender, would Tokyo be
inclined to consider a termination of
the war before Russia could possibly
enter the conflict?
Offer Seen Likely Soon.
There are some who know japanese
psychology and who believe this is a
probability. Along with this is the be-
lief that an offer of unconditional sur
render by Japan in the next 80 days
or six months is well within the realm
of probability.
If Japan fails to surrender within
that time it will be only because her
businessmen who are influential have
failed to persuade the military group
that the entrance into the war by
Russia would be ruinous for Japan.
Then, if Russia did enter the war,
clearly such step would seal the fate
OF the japanese for generations to
come. Her plants and factories would
be completely destroyed beyond the
point of any possible restoration.
The main hope of an early ending
OF the war against Japan may be based
at the moment on the belief that as
danger to Japan of Russian entrance
into the war increases, the reasons for
japanese surrender grow more per-
suaSive. AS for Russia's interrions, the
Japanese know it would take many
months for military supply system to
be established to transfer the might OF
Russia from Europe to Asia and hence
any action toward surrender would
better be taken in the near future.
The present period or breathing spell
is not difficult for the Japanese to
estimate and only if they feel sure
Russia will stay out of the war will
they take the risk of prolongation.
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A Greet Historian