The Waterbury Democrat., 1945-06-04

LII OP lO dll dFC4Ct5C VI ~OO b4AA4OAA for the coming year Compared to $863 billion for the calendar year of 1944); and that total national production will fall to $180 billion (compared to $198 billion for 1944)
 "In the months ahead, hard goods (such as refrigerators and auto mobiles) will be more plentiful but the total sale of soft consumer goods flood and clothing) and services may decline, both because war workers will have less to spend and because of specific shortages" Fortune predicts.
 New Problem Ahead While the American consumer may get some of the goods he has learned to do without, the American worker will be under less pressure to stick to a particular job, and the American businessman may have lot more freedom of choice than he had when Germany was in the field-all this spells out "a new problem in morale and in dis cipline for the American people, , Fortune warns.
 War total war, is the great mobilizer of human energies. But today the demand of the military, though big, is not unsuitable. A partial unWinding of the war economy has begun.
 The clear duty of the military is to plan for the worst in the Pacific, to stuff every estimate with every kind of safety factor. The clear duty of those charged with responsibility for the civilian ec- onomy is to see to it that as cut backs occur industry is ready and able to reconvert and thus avoid unnecessary unemployment. The times, in other words, call for both enthusiasm and sobriety.''
 Another Year of War
 The Fortune editors basic as- sumption is that the Japanese war will last at least one more year. military and lend-lease expendi- lures during the assumed year in- cludes S6 billion of lend-lease but does not include further rehabilita- tion commitments since these still remain indeterminate. The esti- mated drop in national production from $198 billion to $180 billion is accounted for by several factors, Fortune says.
 Many men, and more particular ly women, now in jobs or in part time jobs will probably leave their occupations. Involuntary unemploy- ment will increase because of delays in reconversion. Finally, there is likely to be a substantial reduction in overtime, in the use of marginal and high-cost facilities, and some plants will go out to use altogether.
 The coming year will be one when American capitalism, besides sup porting a war, will be concerned more with refurbishing it's plant than With satisfying direct consum- CT needs. The quicker the plant is re-equipped. the better for labor which is bound to suffer dislocation as the change-over occurs"
 Rise of Unemployment
 Fortune forecasts a rise of unem- i ployment from 100000 Cat the end of 1944) to perhaps 2,400,000 at the end of the assumed year. This is well below what experts believe will be normal unemployment in good year, usually put at between four and five million. The outlook for employment is therefore essential ly favorable"
 But some kind of wage control n7IICf hn ratnineI ,tc out, to deter manufacturers of civilian goods from bidding labor away from needed war production"
 Some contre, must be accepted by management, too, for while longer, Fortune continues. One reason is that as long as the Japanese war lasts there will be a continuing scarcity o. raw materials. The WIPE has promised that the Control Ma terialS Plan will be relaxed in fa- for of system of prioritieS. Price control will be continued; and while there may be some revision in the tax structure both corporate and personal taxes will almost certain ly remain stiff.
 FOf liOSL U. D. businessmen the troubling thing about the immedi- ate future is that they will be op- erating in a twilight ozne of regula- tion where tho economy is half free and half slave.
 Damper on Wages Sought
 But if management must accept some measure of control it can like wise make some legitimate demands. One is that if prices are held more or less in line, labor should accept a damper on wages. Another is that the U. 5. military reckon their claims on the basis of real need, not on the basis of all they can get. The third and most important requisite is that the gentlemen of Washington do not use the prolong- in9 of wartime restrictions to main tain control for controls sake.
 Not planned economy but a system where prices, wages, profits, and incentives are free should be the ultimate goal. The very accumu- lation of demand for both consumer and capital goods, which snake some regulation necessary now, is the best augury We have that such system will work after the war if We choose to let it."