Evening star., 1945-07-08
u. S. industrial Fate
Hinges on Wars S End
Observer Sees Lesser Shock IL
Peace Comes Tardily
By otoen L. Scott.

By Open L. Scott.
| The one great uncertainty in the out
look for industry, trade and employment
In this country now concerns the time
when the Japanese war win end, and
that one uncertainty colors all appraisals
Of what lies ahead.
II the war should end suddenly within
the next three to six months, there would
be severe jolt that would precipitate
some difficult problems of adjustment.
In that event. war industry would shut
down abruptly before civilian industry
had taken over and before 1t had COM
| pleted preparations to take over. There
would be good deal of unemployment.
II, however, the war runs into. 1916,
| then It's ending would be taken pretty
| much in stride. BY that time civilian
industry would be rather fully prepared
to step up its output to fill part of the
gap left by the sudden end of most mill
tary production Unemployment would
rise but not to level that would create
serious problems Immediately. War in
dustry by that time would have been cut
back about so per cent from the peak
levels and civilian industry would be
moving ahead rapidly. utilizing men,
materials and machines released from
war work
Nobody Of course, can know, whether
or not the war is to end suddenly at
some time in the next few months.
1t is clear, though, that II Japan is
TO surrender before the end Of 1945,
1t will be due to sea blockade and air
attack rather than to any showdown
battles on land. The final big battles
of the Pacific war, If there are to be
any, probably cannot come until some
time in 1946. The reasons for that
conclusion are fairly clear
At present, the bulk Of the armed
forces of this country are either in
Europe or in the United States. Time
will be required to transport them
across the Pacific Time also will be
required to build up the immense stores
OF equipment that will be needed for
invasion of Japan herself. 1t may be
necessary to take more bases for use
by aircraft. If Russia Is to enter the
war to deal with Japanese armies on
the mainland of Asia, she will need
time to turn around from the Euro
pean war. Time is required, too, to ex-
pand and TO train Chinese forces that
can be helpful In the final stages Of
the war.
AL of this means that the air forces
probably will have another chance to
demonstrate whether or not bombing
can knock nation out Of war. Japan
is peculiarly vulnerable to air attack
owing to the high degree of concen-
tration in her cities and her industries.
Within the next six months 1t is en-
tirely conceivable that the air forces
will run out of major targets as they
wipe out one city after another, de-
stroying industries in the process.
Likewise, japan is highly susceptible
to sea blockade. Her islands are not
self-sufficient in either food or indus
trial raw materials. Destruction of her
fishing fleets will leave the people with
out one of the foods upon which their
lives depend. 1t is entirely possible that
there win be mass starvation in Japan
within six months.
Despite this gloomy outlook. the
Japanese are not yet showing signs of
surrender. They apparently feel that
there are undefeated Japanese armies
Of large size on the Asiatic mainland
that may be able to save something for
the future Japan. They also seem un-
willing to give up while there are
undefeated armies at home and at
time when there remains a faint hope
that they may be able to defeat an
invasion attempt by American forces.
Unless the people crack down under
the strain to be imposed by air attack
and blockade, the war very probably
will run into next year. If 1t does, then
it should be ended sometime in 1946.
There seems little reason to believe that
Japan can last more than year or Is
months longer. even If the breaks 60
her way and even if Russia should not
enter the war.
On the basis of the present outlook,
the next six months are likely to be
months Of redeployment of American
forces. In this time there probably will
be much air and naval action, but
probably not the big moves aimed Mt a
quick decision.
Industry at home will be reconverting
30 civilian production during this time
and there viii be the start of demobiliza-
ton of the Army. Military demands for
products of industry will be reduced
one-third by the end of the year.
Civilians will begin to get increased
amounts of the products that often were
denied them during the war. IF the
war runs into 1916, there is likely to be
the rather strange spectacle Of con-
tinuing war and developing boom In
civilian industry at the same time. The
end of the war then will provide q Jolt,
but not as severe jolt as 1t would cause
If that end comes In 1945.