Evening star., 1945-10-07
Survey Reveals
Optimistic Tone
On Transition
Nationwide Study
Shows Few Signs of
Economic UpheovoI

American industry will reconvert
to a peacetime basis with a mini
mum of economic disruption, a
Nationwide survey conducted by
the Committee for Economic De-
velopment indicates.
The CED released nearly 900 in
dividual reports from it's representa-
tives throughout the country. An
overwhelming tone of optimism per-
vaded these statements, and chair
men of the local CED committees
generally believed the Nation is
well on its way toward the CED
objective of from 100000 to TO-
100000 more jobs and 80 to As per
cent greater production than in
l940
Principal deterrents to reasonably
full employment within the next
year, the survey showed, would be
wave of strikes, unfavorable leg
islation and failure to remove Gov
ernment controls.
Spot Check, Not Forecast.
In press conference held in con-
nection with the survey last week,
Paul G.. Hoffman, chairman of the
CED and president of the Stude-
baker Corp, and Walter D. Fuller,
chairman of the CED's field develop
ment division, pointed out the in
olVldual reports represented a spot
check OF the Nation and were not
to be interpreted as a forecast.
They reflect the plans of busi-
neSsmen rather than estimates of
employment levels" Mr.. Hoffman
said.
Mr.. Hoffman said national en-
ployment will be very satisfactory
II industry can provide between
53,O00,000 and 100000 jobs in the
peacetime era.
That is what economists would
call full employment" he said.
Need More Retail Stores.
Mr.. Hoffman said there was need
for 100000 more retail establish
ments in the country.
Whether they will be set up" he
said, depends on whether we have
the proper environment for start
ing new businesses"
Mr.. Fuller said the impetus pro-
vided by the CED and other private
organizations as well as Govern
ment agencies was largely RESPONSE
BILE for the advance planning done
by businessmen during the war
| years.
| He cautioned. however, that the
I reports collected by the CED are
mot necessarily cause for optim-
ISM" but constitute rather "an Of
fering of timely and useful infor-
nation"
The reports showed that among
: IA large cities, reconversion was we'll
underway in 25, with no major un-
employment problems indicated.
Three cities estimated reconversion
would take about three months; 20
cities, including Washington, said
1t would take six months, and II
thought it would take a year. Thir-
teen did not estimate the time re-
quired for full reconversion, one
said the peak of unemployment
would be reached in 1947, and 10
said they could not foresee the time
when all unemployed could be
absorbed into local industries.
Little Unemployment Here.
The report for Washington was
submitted by Eugene Meyer, chair
man of the CED Committee here.
Mr.. Meyer said local studies indi-
Gated there would be "a minimum
Iof unemployment in the Washing
lton area and that there may be a
considerable shortage in skilled
workers, particularly in the con-
Istruction field"
Mr. Meyer said there were about
100000 persons employed in the
iarea on September 81. The United
States Employment Service at that
jtin1e reported 1000 unemployed,
with $4,000 jobs available and many
iothers not reported. The unem-
ploymept peak, Mr.. Meyer said, can
Ebe expected here@next February or
March.
The Maryland CED chairman, B.
Howell Griswold, jr., said there were
more jobs open in Baltimore than
there were registered unemployed.
Peak unemployment, he said,
twill depend not on local conditions,
put onsnational conditions and leg
islation."
No Problem in Richmond.
Richmond, Va, reported no un-
Employment problem and said it
pid not expect one during the re-
conversion period. Norfolk pointed
put its problems were largely de-
pendent on Government establish
ments in the area, but said that
unless these operations are curtailed
more rapidly than expected there
you'd be no major unemployment
trisis.
Among the 81 major cities sur
feyed, only 10 reflected gloomy
outlook. The cities which reported
they could not foresee the day when
there would be no unemployment
problem are Sprinfield and
worcester, Mass; Wilkes Barre, Pa. J:
Chattanooga, Tenn; Evansville,
Ind, louisville, KY; Minneapolis,
Denver, Portland, Greg. and Berke-