Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1945-02-06
Clue to Jop Thinking
Seen in MoniIo's Fall
Foes Strategy Still Based on Idea
Of U. S. firing, Says Writer
By David Laurence


Of y. S. firing, Says Writer
By Dauid Laurence
Considerable discussion has arisen
over the reasons why the Japanese Jet
us believe the conquest Of Manila would
be difncult and why relatively little re-
sistance actually was offered. This
opens up the whole subject Of what y
going on In the japanese mind with
reference to the strategy OF the war
In the Far East.
Looking at the war only from Japa-
nese standpoint and trying to reason
from the viewpoint of the war and navy
officers In Tokyo Is something that
American strategists are constantly
doing in order to fathom the next
moves Of the enemy. The following may
be a reasonable explanation or n.y.
pothesis Of Japanese thinking:
First, the japanese have recognized
from the start that the United States
possesses far superior resources and
that the only hope Of the Japanese was
to Tight long war with the expecta-
ton or belief that the American people
would grow war weary.
Second, using the long-war idea rs
q basic assumption, the naval STRAIT
esists In Tokyo have figured on q
course Of delay The attack on Pearl
Harbor was move in that direction.
II successful, the Japanese reasoned 1t
would set the American Navy back q
couple OF years at least. Meanwhile.
spirited offensive could be operated
to take in the Philippines, the Neither
lands East Indies and perhaps Aus
tralia.
Can Defend Strategy.
Third, the Japanese in February, 1913,
looking back on their strategy, can
defend it as eminently successful for, as
perhaps is being suggested In Tokyo,
didn't it take the Americans three
whole years to work their way back
from New Guinea to the Philippines
and recapture Manila? The losses to
the American Army and Navy in that
interim were not inconsequential by any
means and such severe damage has been
inflicted on our ships as to retard for
while our march northward In the
Pacific. Manila Is still / 800 miles from
Tokyo, and air bombing alone doesn't
win wars.
Fourth. what steps can be taken now
to prolong the war another three years?
The defense of the Philippines in lo45
was doubtless long ago written Oh In
Tokyo as not worth the sacrifice en-
tailed, especially after the Japanese
fleet suffered q devastating defeat In
two battles OF the Philippines last year.
Part Of the strategy, a. Is now apparent,
was to send out propaganda foretelling
an intention to tight q decisive battle
on Luzon when all the time no such
plan was really contemplated. But 1t
did tie up q considerable portion OF the
American Navy and Army for . long
while and may continue to do 90 for
months to come while the japanese
feverishly repair their damaged neet.
Fifth, the same delaying tactics can
be pursued with respect to China. The
United States, the japanese may be
saying, viii not risk direct invasion
OF the main Japanese islands. but will
attempt to make landings in China.
This means prolonged struggle on the
continent Of Asia. The cutting Of the
Burma road was q step In the delay
plan. The capture Of the railroad which
btsects China Is similar step.
Sixth, industrial resources have been
modified by the japanese on the con-
tinent Of Asia which, together with
ample Japanese manpower, can keep
the struggle going for another three
years ut least.
over, the Americans will have to mo-
Billie millions Of men for the battles on
the mainland Of Asia and this, In turn,
means ut least year to 10 months
delay In getting the Allied troops and
bases into operation. Meanwhile. II
the Russians do enter the war, the
japanese feel they can infiict seriou,
delaying blows on the Russians and In
terfere by submarines with supply lines
across the Pacific from the United
States to Siberia.
See Real Break" Ahead.
Eighth, the ending of the war In
Europe may prove q real break" for
the japanese In the sense Of delaying
still further American operations in the
Far East. The demands from Britain
ana France for shipping to supply food
and raw materials will grow to such an
extent as to exceed the tonnage pre-
viously used for the Allied armies. The
| problems Of Germanv and thu liberated
countries will add to the demands for
ships and keep America busy. Perhaps
America also will have to keep an
occupying army In Europe for at least
five years. This imposes an additional
strain on the supply side.
Ninth, the Japanese figure on con-
slant friction and dissension inside
China between the Communists and the
other factions to keep Chinese man
power from being modified. Likewise,
more and more land-based fighter craft
are being built in Japan to prey upon
American submarines that enter the
Sea Of Japan or Yellow Sea and to
light OF American aircraft carriers.
The Japanese strategy II plainly one
OF delay. hoping by attrition to ret the
American people to agree to soma
compromise. This will be denounced
promptly as absurd by all Americans,
regardless Of party. But considering the
confusion on our home front and the
prospect Of more confusion when the
European war ends and buSiness-as.
ususl. labor-as-usual and politics-as.