Evening star., 1945-05-06
Peucetime NormoIcy
After Both Wars End
But Observers Believe Scarcities
Will Continue LonS
Bu O1De7, L, Scott.

By Open L. Scott.
As the situation now stands, life Is
not to be greatly different with just one
war going on than it has been with two
wars. Those who expect a speedy re-
turn to normal peacetime conditions
will be disappointed.
OF course, the casualties that have re-
suited from the war in Europe are to end
with that war. That is the most i'm
portant consideration for the large
number Of American families with boys
in Europe. Yet demobilization of men
overseas is to be slow. It is doubtful
If as many as 800 900 will be let out by
the end Of this year, if Japanese war
goes on. AS many as two out Of three
men in Europe will face transfer to
the Pacific.
The draft of men will slow down. The
Army plans, however, to take in more
than enough men to replace casualties
IN order that it can let out larger pro-
portion Of those who have had long
service in the war to date. The Navy is
not planning to have any large-scale
demobilization until the defeat Of Japan.
One development of importance to many
families is the new requirement that
boys Of 18 who are drafted into service
may not be used in combat until they
have had six months of training This
means that boys now to be drafted can
not be placed in units that will see ac-
tion much before the end of the present
year. In the past the Army has been
using these youths after three or four
months Of training.
The food shortage can be expected to
continue and to grow more severe. Mil
1tary requirements for food are to remain
large and If the people of Europe are
to be saved from acute suffering in the
months just ahead, it will have to be at
the expense Of the American consumer.
There Is no other country from which
stocks OF food can be drawn in large
enough quantities. This means little if
any easing Of rations Of meat, sugar and
fats, including butter.
X 4 -
There can be some easing in gasoline
ratlons but not much. The civilian plan,
to which the Army objects as being too
liberal, Is to let civilians have about
three gallons Of gasoline a weeA for
pleasure driving. 1t also is the intent to
equalize maximum "B" rations at ATS a
month against previous maximum of
375 miles in the East and 400 1ziles In
the Far West.
Cotton goods and rayon goods will re-
main in very tight supply owing to the
unusual demand from the Pacific war
theaters for this type of product.
New automobiles can be expected to
appear in the last three months Of the
present year. These cars are to be ra-
toned and 1t is probable that rationinp
Will be used for number of months In
order to assure that those who need new
cars most will get them. Housrhold
equipment of many types, including
vacuum cleaners, washing machines and
mechanical refrigerators, is likely to be
appearing again late in the year.
1t probably will be early l946 before
home construction can start on anv i'm.
portant scale. That is due to the pros
pect OF continuing shortage of lumber
ManpoWer and other materials should
be abundant before long. In fact, very
definite easing in the employment situa-
ton is to be expected during the months
just ahead
Thus, 1t is apparent that the shift
from two-war to q one-war basis will
be gradual. This same gradual shift will
snow in military expenditure. War is
costing, Tor production alone, about s64.-
ooo,ooo,ooo year at the present level of
expenditure. Within three months that
rate OF spending is likely to be down to
about s58, 900 100000 and by the end of
this year it probably will be under s5o.-
Ooo,OO0,O00. When the shift to a one
war OASIS is completed, the cost of NIL
nltlons is to be at an annual rate of
about $4,000 100000 or maybe some
what less.
Inc big question, however, is whether
Japan will be in mood to 60 on taking
the punishment that will come her wav
now that real start can be made in
concentrating the full power of this
| countrys military machine on her. The
Japanese islands are a setup for air
attack and for naval blockade. If the
government Of that nation insists upon
going ahead with a fight to the end
the people OF Japan will be in for ter
riole punishment both through starva-
ton and through destruction from the
air. BY the time invasion would come the
islands could be pretty much Of
shambles and their inhabitants could be
IN a very weakened condition.
There is growing belief that Japanese
leaders will see the light before the end
OF the present year and will offer sur
render in the hope of saving something
from what otherwise would be a COM
plete wreck.
1t is after war with Japan ends that
the big demobilization both of industry
and of military forces will occur. After
that, the shift back to normal will come
swiftly for most civilians, The postwar
"Normalcy," however, will bring with It
many problems of its own that assure
plenty to keep up interest in Govern
ment actions and plans
Latin American Trade
From the Montreal La Presse.
| C. M. Croft, director of the research
| hfQnch If tho fAla~ol -