Evening star., 1945-10-28


aircraft and ordnance cutbacks, in turn
ing quickly from production of military
| trucks to civilian trucks, have two seri-
Gus problems to overcome before they
| can get into full-scale production
aforementioned tools and materials
must be cleared out of plants. and parts
manufacturers must produce the neces-
sary stockpile of components.
There are demands for labor in such
fields as steel, coal, construction, house
hold equipment, textiles, apparel and
other industries but lack of materials
curtailS these requirements. Steel mills
are employing $4,000 fewer workers than
two years ago, when production was
about at the current level They are
expected to reabsorb workers as fast as
they become available until the mills
can get back to a 40-hour week.
Construction Work Delayed.
Coal mines also need workers, but
their needs are not likely to be met
until large number of skilled workers
have been discharged by the armed
forces. Construction industries, short
of workers, have been held back more
by lack of lumber and steel than by
manpoWer.
The upward trend in unemployment
Is expected to continue for several
months after December. John w, Sny-
der, director Of war mobilization and
reconversion, looks for peak of
100000 unemployed by spring. After
the peak is reached, Government econ
omists expect no substantial change for
several months, then by next summer
the start of a permanent" recovery
Some think this recovery will attain the
proportions of boom" lasting for sew
eral years.
The possibility remains that the coun-
try may be faced, when reconversion
has been completed, with the paradoxical
situation of apparent prosperity for
those with jobs, while there is still a
large pool of unemployed, dependent on
Government assistance.
Eager Market Waiting.
The pentup demand for civilian
goods, production of which was cur
tailed or eliminated during the war, is
backed by a high level of savings and
spendable cash in the pockets of those
who enjoyed steady and relatively high
ly compensated work during the years
of war production. Installment credit
dwindled during the war to insignifi-
canoe. but will be a large factor in the
postwar buying spree-for those who
have jobs.
Those who do not have jobs can,
within very few months, use up what
ever savings they accumulated during
the war Unemployment compensation
will, of course, tide over many, but as
the law now stands these payments
vary widely in the different States.
The substantially full employment"
which the CED expects within a year
contemplates a civilian labor force of
54,Ooo,OOO, with 3,5oO,ooo in the armed
| forces and 2,500,000 in a labor float u
consisting of workers who want to lay
of, who have left old jobs to look for
new ones, or who for one reason or an
| other are unable or unwilling to work
| These add up to total of 60,000,000
which labor leaders have set as the
| postwar goal for jobs.
The CED estimate is that 53,448 900
will have jobs in civilian industry and
$4,000 able and willing to work will be
without jobs.
Estimates of the CED were derived
from data obtained from laos leading
manufacturers and 158 trade associa
tions with more than 10000 members
A formula based on experience, show
ing the relationship between manufac-
turing employment and total employ
ment, was then applied to these data
The manufacturers. each attempting
to gauge his own postwar production
and employment prospects, figured on
the average that they would need 1877
per cent more workers than in 1885,
printed by special arrangement with tn.
st. Louis Post-Dispatch)