Montana labor news., 1945-07-12
PREDICT P0Sslp. J
TO 10 MILLION
UNEMPLOYED in 1916

NEW YORK-(F Expect from eight
to 10 million workers to be out of jobs
by late 1916 or early l947 unless Congress
takes immediate action to provide fuI
employment.
This prediction, based on the probable
ity that war with Japan will be over by
then, is made by Economic Notes. month
ly publication of Labor Research associa-
ton in its July issue.
Appraising the current reconversion
scene, Economic Notes foresees an in
crease in the rate of armament cutbacks
to the extent of SOC slash in produc-
ton, assuming continuation of hard
and bitter war against the japanese. ."
This means, the publication says that
war production, which was well over $50
billion at its peak last year. will be down
to around $50 billion by the early part
OF next year and the Federal Reserve
Board index of industrial production will
fall from its present level of around 225
somewhere in the vicinity of 100.
Although this looks like a pretty sharp
fall for the FRB index, Economic Notes
says, 1T is relatively mild compared with
what may happen when the japanese
war is finally ended, unless effective
measures are taken by Congress to plan
public works and provide full employ
ment Even if we assume very active pro-
duction of consumer goods after the un-
conditional surrender of Japan, the FRB
index may continue to decline until it
reaches the neighborhood Of 14o to ll0
some time in late 1915 or early 1947
If this 3O-or-more point drop should
occur we might see unemployment rang
ing anywhere from eight to 10 million
depending on the rate Of demobilization
from the armed services and the number
of workers who may evaporate" ais en-
ployers put it, that is, withdraw from the
labor force"
Estimates 0i Unemployment in the year
ahead vary greatly, The publication points
out Assuming that war contracts are
cut as much as 50ls by next spring and
some four or five million workers are
dropped from industry, While two mil-
lion leave the armed services the total
number then counted as unemployed
might not be more than three million
This figure is based on the estimate that
will employ possibly two
million. workers that another million will
be absorbed by the shortening Of the
workweek. and that possibly another mil
lion will withdraw from the labor force.
Prediction on job losses by WPB
Chairman j. A. Krug are much lower
than the above figures. But he seems
to reckon only on the number u gorkers
dropped from the munitions industries
proper The millions of workers whose
jobs depend on orders from the war in
dustries will also be affected by contract
Steel workers and wage earn
ers in similar industries providing mate
rials for munition plants will certainly
be hit indirectly by the coming cutbacks.
Sharply increased downgrading and
wage cutting will also mark the months
ahead, Economic Notes says, supporting
labors demand for an immediate 2Oee
in basic wage rates to head off
disaster There is need for
an increase of at least 1919 to bring wage
rates into line with the higher cost Of
loving" it says And an additional 1919
is required to balance labors increased
during the war
"a 2Og6 increase in wage rates would
do more than restore the relationships
between wage rates, prices and produc-
tivity that prevailed before the war To
raise labors standard Of living a little
higher than prewar and to provide en-
ployment for the millions that were then
unemployed a still further rise is neces-
sary."