Evening star., 1945-02-04
Half Of Double War
Moy End Shortly
But Struggle With Japan Ex-
pected to Continue
By O,Den Z. Scott.


pared. The resulting upsets win be more
severe than they would have been had,
the war ended on schedule late in 1914.
At present, all planning for 4 shift
from . two-war to q one-war basis, is
abandoned. Instead, the trend Of 1914
Is reversed sr1d there Is greater degree
OF war mobilization than at any time
In more than three years Of war.
War industries that had been prepar-
Ing to reconvert now are busy preparing
to expand war production. The drift or
men from war factories Is reversed.
There is a. step up in the draft with the /,
whole group Of men aged 2e through %.
who had expected to be immune from q,
general call to military service. now in,
process OF being inducted.
Army ofnctals, who last year were pre-
dieting the end of the European war
before the years end, now frown upon
any suggestion that the end that did not
come late in 1914 may actually come
rather early in 1945. Concern is ex-.
pressed that Russian success on the
eastern front may generate a revival of
optimism in this country and a let
down in support for a draft of labor
and for other steps designed to intensity
the degree Of mobilization.
X 4 4
Actually, it is difficult even for those
who are striving to generate pessimism.
to restrain their own optimism over the
way the war is going both In Europe and
In the Pacific.
The offensive sweep Of the Russian
armies has been far greater than the
Germans thought it could be. Their
principal defense lines were overrun.
The important industrial areas of Poland
are lost. Silesia, with its vital coal and
iron and its basic industries, Is as good.
as lost. The industries of Czechoslovakia
are threatened.
In the east, the Germans are no more
than one jump away from decisive de.
feat. That defeat could call for one
more carefully prepared Russian often.
sive after this one has run its course.
II required, that offensive probably could
be mounted by spring.
In the west, Germany's basic war
industries in the Rhine area and in the
Ruhr east of the Rhine, are all within
SO miles Of American British forces. An
offensive that can cover that so miles,
which will include major problem Of
crossing the Rhine, would bring Ger.
many near to defeat. It Is obvious that
an offensive, aimed at that result Is to
get well under way before long.
Even on the most conservative basis
Of calculation, the military experts fail
to see how the Germans can survive
one more full scale offensive from the
west plus one more full scale offensive
from the east, after the present Russian
offensive has worn out. This would sug-
gest that war In Europe can be ended
by midyear or before. The month of Nav
is beginning to take the place that the
month of December occupied last year
In the inside forecasting.
There is somewhat less optimism over
the outlook In the war against Japan.
The Pacific war Is set back somewhat
by the failure Of the war in Europe to
end on schedule, As q result Of that
failure, the shift of men and material
from Europe has been delayed At the
same time the campaign In the Philip
pines, which was necessary from a
political point Of view, has tended to
delay moves aimed at points closer to
Japan herself.
The result Is that 1t is only now that
Japan really is beginning to be boxed
In. She is pretty well cut OF from the
raw materials Of her conquered empire
In the Southwest Pacific. Her merchant
marine Is trimmed down to a fraction
of its prewar size. Her Navy is badly
hurt Even SO, Japans home islands
remain relatively untouched by war and
her people are not yet suffering severely
from the blockade that gradually will
become strangling. Japan continues to
have almost unrestricted access to the
mainland Of China and to Manchuria.
It Is likely to be late in ls45 before
the japanese begin to be hammered
severely at home and to feel the pinch
Of blockade. If Russia is to enter this
war. that entry probably cannot come
before April, 1916, when her treaty Of
non-aggression with Japan expires.
Notice Of an intent to terminate that
treaty must be given by April I, 1s45.
Russia could offer the means by which
this war could be brought to an end
sometime in 1916.
On the basis Of present plans In this
country, the end Of war In Europe win
have its effects cushioned by continue
Ing war In the Pacific The announced
intent is to demobilize the Army very
slowly and to cut back In war produc-
ton by stages. One official estimate Is
tthat double war that now costs about
0,oo0, 900 900 year viii be followed by
a single war that costs $4,000, ,000, 900
year. It. however, is probable, that the
actual adjustment downward win be
far greater than these figures indicate
because there will be vast inventories
of war materials In Europe and this
country that can be used In the Pacific
war
There is every prospect that some time
in the first half 1945. despite efforts to
generate pessimism, will find itself with
one less war to fight and with the prob
lens that 60 along with adjustment
from basis OF about war effort to
part-time war effort.
Bee Line
From the 81. Louis Star Times.
"A bee files 5000 miles to produce