Evening star., 1945-09-30
Doubled Cost FOreSeen
In Postwar Government
Federal Expenditures Likely to Be Trebled Over
1910 Figures, With Smaller Increases for
State and Local Activities
BY Joseph Hanl0n

nent armed force, although the annual
cost would not be less until about 1851.
If there are about 100000 receiving
compulsory training in 1918, he fig
ures, the number in the regular armed
services would be about 1,6000 900, about
10000 fewer than would be required in
the absence of compulsory training.
In dealing with the Federal debt.
Kimmel estimates that it will have
reached about $500 1000, ,o0o, 900 by ls47-s,
with continuing annual deficit at
least until that year. No account is
taken of debt retirement because, in the
face of annual deficits, any provision
for retirement would have value only
as a declaration of policy. He antici-
pates only very slight rise in interest
| rates.
| Under the classification of promotion
of economic development, Kimmel con-
| siders the construction and mainte-
nance of transportation facilities; en-
couragement of commerce, industry and
labor; aids to agriculture and develop
ment of natural resources. He sug-
gests here that the proposed Missouri
| Valley Authority and similar enterprises
for the Columbia and Arkansas River
areas may soon rival the Tennessee
| Valley Authority"
Sees Heavy River Development
Recent developments, he writes,
suggest that expenditures will be in
| cI,rraH fpr of off
area or river basin development
projects. Although the proposed Mis-
souri, Valley Authority has not been
established, the 1914 Flood Control Act
| authorizes the Improvements in the
Missouri River basin which, few weeks
before, the President had recommended
be developed and administered by a
Missouri River authority"
His estimate for 1943 Federal food
control expenditures is s225 900 900, for
water-power development $500, 900 900;
for rivers and harbors, $165 900 900, a
total of $500 100000 against 1910 ex-
penditures of s3o2, 100000
Other large items in the economic de-
velopment category include highway
SoAlcti uSOlOA dliu dIlQ dlQS
to aviation and navigation. Federal
grants in aid of civil aviation were in
creasing rapidly before the war, and
aviation expenditures, chiefly for ma
tional defense projects, increased
enormously during the war, it is
pointed out.
Aids to agriculture, however, are the
LARGEST i,,t -
Federal expenditures and are estimated
at s2.600, 900 900 for 1947-S, compared
with s1,266, 10000 in 1910. Most of the
money will be used for price support
programs.
Lower Farm Market Predicted.
| During the war period income Of
| farmers was raised by a double process
higher production and higher prices.
| With the end of the war the situation
will change rapidly. Government pur-
chases will drop as Rehabilitation pro-
ceeds, lease-lend requirements will fall.
and by 1948 demands for foreign relief
and rehabilitation will be at low level
On the other hand, civilian demand is
expected to exceed the prewar level.
| although it will fall below the wartime
peak.
Allowing for 10 per cent population
increase since the late l93os, and for an
increase of per cent in per capita con-
sumption, Kimmel concludes that the
demand for farm products in 1918 will
be up about 18 per cent over the level
of the late 1906 On the supply side, a
IS per cent increase in production is
| foreseen. He expects that funds will be
available to maintain prices at 80 per
cent of parity, and figures this will cost
| $4,000, ,000, 900.
Pensions and disability compensation
account for 1884 000,0 of the $780,
| 100000 estimated for veterans benefits
IN l947-8. Education and training will
take an estimated $3.50 600, ,000 and other
benefits, including disqualification, S475,-
| 00O0 900.
Promotion of social welfare is the
only remaining major classification i'll
kimmers system of categories 1t ranks
| fifth in Federal expenditure, second in
the total of Federal, State and local
costs. OF the classification so far con-
sidered in detail it is the only one in
which State and local government ex-
penditures exceed those of the Federal
Government.
Included under social welfare expend-
itures are the cost of education, public
health, recreation, public assistance,
social security administration and hous-
ing.
Big Educational Increase.
Public expenditures for education
at $500, 100000 for 1947-8, compared
with $4,000 100000 for 1910.
Unusually large enrollments may be
expected for some years after the war"
Kimmel holds. Total enrolment will
reach higher level than any previous
| ly recorded. In this period there will
be considerable overlapping between
students returning from the armed
services whose education was postponed
or interrupted by the war, and students
| just reaching college age
Public assistance as used in the KIM
mel study, excludes old-age benefits, un-
employment compensation and other
disbursements from trust funds under
the social security system.
Before the war public assistance ranked
first among the objects of public ex-
penditure. The total of Federal, State
and local expenditures for this purpose
approached $4,000, 100000. The 1918
estimate NJ 60 am mn mn ,.,4. -