Evening star., 1945-08-03
Era of Peace Doubted
Under Potsdum PIun
Writer Sees Economic Distress
Likely with Reparations
By David Laurence

By Dapid Laurence
Great Britain, the United States and
Russia have gone forward In some re-
spects toward stabilizing postwar Eu-
rope and have gone backward in others.
Definite progress has been made to-
ward lifting some of the smaller coun-
tries out of their hazy status and par
ticularly toward restoring France and
Italy to their rightful places in the FAM
lily of nations. Likewise a distinct ad-
vance has been made in setting up a
council of foreign ministers to deal with
the preliminaries of the eventually-to-
be-made peace settlements involving
territories.
On the whole, the work done at Pots
dam is to be commended but it would
be mistake to assume that the meas
ures outlined with respect to the future
of Germany will necessarily bring an
era of peace in Europe.
The treatment of Germany is in the
main what had been promised at Yalta
and Is in line with the spirit of revenge
that today dominates the thinking Of
the Allied governments. Whether
peaceful or an embittered Germany will
ensue cannot be proved at this time.
But human nature being what it is, it
may be expected that unless the Allied
governments intend to maintain oc-
cupying armies and coercive measures
for long, long time, the German popu-
lation will not accept the program over
the years without repeated protests and
efforts to have the severity of it modi-
fed.
Task on Reparations.
The handling of reparations eSpe-
cially presents an almost impossible task
for the Allies or the experts they put
in charge. Here, for instance, is para
graph from the communique which it
would take the wisdom of thousand
Solomons to fulfill:
Payment of reparations should leave
enough resources to enable the German
people to subsist without external as
sistance. In working out the economic
balance of Germany the necessary
means must be provided to pay for i'm
ports approved by the Control Council
in Germany. The proceeds of exports
from current production and stocks
shall be available in the first place for
payment for such imports
This is a very large order and will
require more alphabetical agencies to
manage Germany's economic system and
more personnel than the United States
has found necessary to run our war
time economy from Washington. For
Germany has to be completely rebuilt
while her industrial system is torn apart.
This means a breakup, the far-reachlng
effects of which cannot be foreseen.
No surer way to promote anarchy and
to produce a spirit of underground
resistance can be found than to put
nations economy completely in foreign
control with the right of the victors in
the war to take what resources or equip
ment they please subject only to the
vague limitation that there must re-
main enough resources to enable the
German people to subsist without ex-
ternal assistance"
The 100000 Germans who have
fought war against almost the whole
world have exhibited an ingenuity and
"a capacity for production which will
not be erased by commanding them now
to become an agricultural people.
Armies can be conquered but peoples
are not as readily subjugated. For the
next few years the program of course,
will ho sancantaH Tn time the armies
of occupation will be withdrawn. No
German government which can call
itself liberal or anti-Nazi will stay in
power very long against a political
minority that constantly calls for the
removal of the foreign yoke of eco
nomic control. If added to this is
economic distress, unemployment and
other ills that flow from a managed
economy or an economy mismanaged
by three different sets of managers.
there will be serious trouble inside
! Germany within five years.
| History Repeating Itself.
The communique pledges that there
is no intention Ito enslave the German
| people" but the reparation clauses Of
the same communique contradict that
purpose In a sense history is repeat
ing itself. The Allies had a severe
reparation program after the World
War, and though they encouraged the
formation of the Weimar republic they
did not support it as against the mall
contents within Germany. In 1928
came the first economic earthquake
when imitation destroyed the savings
of the middle class.
After that the German militarists
began planning for a second World
War as the only way out In the end
Hitler arose to take advantage of the
economic distress to foist his propa-
ganda, and the German people, in des-
peration, rallied behind the first leader
who dared to point out the iniquities
of the Versailles Treaty.
Germany can be made a peaceful
member of the society of nations but
essential to such an evolution is the
maintenance of sound economy and
chance for the German people to get
full employment and an adequate
standard of living. 1t is economic dis
tress that is the basic cause of the
unrest that finally leads to war.
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