Evening star., 1945-10-28
Emergency Workers Hold
Key to Problem of Jobs
Severity of Unemployment Situation Depends on
How Many Housewives, Overage Men and
Teen.agers Cling to Present Work
By Joseph Hanfon

BY Jose
The severity of unemployment in ths
coming months will be influenced greatly
by the rapidity with which the so-callec
emergency war workers" Withdraw
from the labor market. These are the
teen-agers, who except for the war
would have been in school instead of in
industry; the women who would ordi-
narily have remained in their homes tc
care for their families; the overage men
who might have drawn retirement pen
sions, but stayed on the job because OF
the war.
Estimates of their number vary from
5,5O0,0O0 to 100000.
The importance of this group in the
reconversion period will readily be seen
when it is recalled that the War Man.
power Commissions estimate of unem-
ployment for mid-December is 100000
Presumably, if the emergency wal
workers were all to withdraw from the
labor market, there would be little or
no unemployment next December.
Many to Seek Jobs.
Unfortunately, no one expects that to
happen. The VINO estimate is that
100000 will have withdrawn by the
end of the year, leaving something over
100000 still in the labor force-at
work or seeking work.
Early in the war, polls indicated that
most women, who comprise more than
half of the emergency war workers, ex-
pected to give up their jobs and return
to home making after the war. Later
polls reversed that trend. Nearly all of
10000 women in Chicago radio plants
said they wanted to retain their jobs
In Detroit automobile plants, 85 per cent
of the women workers expressed the
same desire.
The VINO estimate of 100000 unem-
ployed by mid-December was predicated
on the assumptions that Withdrawals
of emergency war workers would not
exceed 100000 by the end of the year
forces would proceed at the rate of
100000 a month.
Both labor and industry challenge the
VINO conclusion on the total Of un-
employment to be expected. The CIO
puts the year-end unemployment figure
at 100000, the AFL speaks OF
100000; the National Association OF
Manufacturers and the United States
Chamber of Commerce minimize the
problem. The NAM holds that the
number who will be unemployed for
more than 80 days will be less than
100000. The Chamber of Com
merce looks for most of the emergency
war workers to withdraw, and says
many of the other unemployed" will be
discharged servicemen not anxious for
immediate employment or war workers
who will welcome respite before going
back to. work. -5s--s--'
CED Sees Full Employment.
The optimistic view was reinforced
when the Committee for Economic De-
velopment came up with a prediction
that the switch-over from war to civil
ian production would be rapid ano
would within year, produce sub
stantially full employment"
Those who fear widespread unem-
ployment and distress in the months
ahead kook with suspicion on this up.
surge OF optimism on the part of spokes.
men for business. They point out sus.
piciously: that these reassurances were
offered just before Senate committee
met to consider the Murray full EN-.
ployment bill.
The VINO estimate of 100000 un.
employed next December would put tht
country right back in that respect tt
where it was in December 1910, wher
the number of unemployed was $500,
600. In another respect, however, tn,
situation will have changed substan
tially-there will be 8,500,000 more il
the labor force than there were f1v
years before. This results from tn
normal annual increment of some
thing over 100000 occasioned by pop
ulation growth, and from the retention
of part of the force of war emergenc,
workers
46,800,000 Expected at Work.
Offsetting this increase in the labo
force is the circumstance that severa
million will still be in the armed forces
next December, against only 10000
five years ago, so that those employed
in civilian pursuits will be 46,80O, ,Oo
in December, only 100000 fewer tha,
five years ago, but 100000 fewer thai
in July.
Here is what VINO expects for mex
December, broken down into industria
categories:
Ordnance manufacture-10O EN-
ployed, a decline of 100000 from JULY
Aircraft-200,000, a decline of l 100 ,OO(
Shipbuilding and repair-5Oo 900,
decline of 100000.
All other metal, chemical and rubbe
industries-3,300,00 900, decline of LOO,
600.
Mining-800, 900, no change.
Construction-1,0 100000, an increase G
100000.
Transportation and public utilities
3,500,000, decline of 100000.
Federal war agencies 100000, a de
cline of 100000.
Other Government agencies, ,100,OO
an increase of 100000.
Trade-7,5oo,o 900, an increase of 500
600.
Service, ,500,0 900, decline of 200, ,00
All other nonagricultural-5,00 900 900,
decline of 100000.
Agriculture-7,5 100000, a decline {
100000.
Increase i'm Agriculture.
The decrease in agricultural employ
ment between July and December
somewhat less than seasonal. Compare