Evening star., 1944-10-22
Big Registration Seen
Fovorinq Fourth Term
Writer Says Wars Continuance
Also Helps Roosevelt
By ODen L. Scott.

By ODen L. Scott.
Some light now can be thrown unon
three of the principal uncertainties that
have confused the poll takers and the
guessers who have been trying to fore
cast the outcome of the presidential
election
Uncertainties have concerned the size
Of the civilian vote, the probable size of
the vote by men in service and the
question of whether war would or would
not be ended in Europe by election day.
Each is very important uncertainty
with direct bearing on the prospect.
or lack of prospect, for fourth term.
Those uncertainties now can be cleared
up to this extent
First, 1t now seems clear that the size
OF the civilian vote on November will
be larger than the poll takers have in
dicated. Registration in big cities, in
particular, Is falling not far short of
| that in 1910, despite the absence of men
| In service. In some centers registration
Is exceeding 1910. The lethargy that
the White House group had worried
about appears not to be such a factor
| as expected. War workers definitely ap-
pear to be registering in large numbers
In their new places of residence.
Second, men In service are voting
more heavily than almost anybody an
ticipated. About 100000 soldiers and
| sailors are entitled to vote. More than
100000 have been supplied with ballots.
Nearly 100000 votes have been received
| by State election officials with every in
dication that at least 100000 votes will
be cast This would be about a 40 per
cent vote of the eligibles which is a verv
creditable performance in the light of
difficulties involved.
| Third, the prospect that war in Eu-
rope will be ended by election day Is
far from bright. If all had gone well
with original plans, war could have
ended in October. The breaks were not
all our way, however, and there now is
chance that the greatest battles of
the war may actually be under way at
the time of voting.
All OF these are factors that add to
the problem confronting Gov. Thoms,
Dewey in his effort to defeat President
Roosevelt's try for a fourth term.
| There was much evidence that II the
war in Europe had ended, or appeared
70 be as good as ended, many voters
| would favor a change who otherwise
would not favor a change. German
success in reorganizing to make a stand
In Germany itself after the rout in
France ended the prospect that the
war suddenly might fold up by mid
October 1t Is entirely possible that if
the war should end in the closing DAYS
OF this month or first days of the next
that the public reaction could be one
OF gratitude in the days Immediately
following, rather than one of suddenly
expressed demand for change.
| For time. too, it, appeared that rel
atively few soldiers might vote in this
election Energetic action by the Army
| and the Navy to carry out instructions
given them by Congress apparently
ended that prospect. In key States of
| the East and Middle West the vote of
servicemen may approach so per cent
OF possible vote. if every eligible elector
! casts his ballot This is an important
TACT, If the vote of men in service
as all of the polls seem to suggests
likely to run about go per cent for a
fourth term and 40 per cent against.
| II that Is the case. Gov. Dewey must
| establish stable lead in States like
New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts.
| Illinois, Ohio and Michigan from the
votes OF those at home if he is to carry
those States.
| Even more significance probably at
taches to the larger than expected reg
lstratlon in big cities and Industrial
centers. This registration seems to in
dicate that the Political Action Com
nittee of the CIO is gettings results
In its drive to bring about large regis
tratlon OF wage earners. Some suggest
that the registration reflects a turnout
OF those who oppose the PAC. However.
1t does seem to be the case that registra-
ton is larger than anticipated In in
| dustrial districts.
One opinion poll has estimated that
the civilian vote on November will
be no more than 80 500 900. compared
with more than 5o,000oOo in 194O II
| 100000 service votes were added, the
total then would be 425oo,ooo, or about
| 100000 below normal. A vote re-
duction of that size now seems quite
improbable. total vote of $4,000, 900,
including soldier vote, seems like q
reasonable prospect. A vote of that
size would mean that very many war
workers who had changed residence
| were able to establish new residences
| emitting them to vote. Mr.. Roosevelt
is depending very heavily upon the vote
Of wage earners to return him to Office.
He seems reconciled to loss of the corn
| and wheat belts.
1t still remains true that Gov. Dewey
must make very great strides to win
under the circumstances that now are
developing. That is so because Presi-
dent Roosevelt starts out in his quest
for 266 electoral votes with an assured
backlog of lib votes in the solid" South.
He also is conceded at least 80 votes
on the Pacific Coast and more in some
OF the border States. The President
can lose the Middle West and New
York or Pennsylvania and still win,
but Gov. Dewey must carry most of the
East as well as the Middle West. in
Guiding almost every big State, or he
will be nosed out.
The chance that President Roosevelt
| would be counted out in an election in