The Wilmington morning star. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1909-1990, 1944-09-28
TODAY and TOMORROW
By WALTER LIPPMAN]

Today and
By WALTEF
Ruin And Recos:str
In discussing what should be the
Allied policy toward German in
dustry after disarmament, many Of
us assume that there will be left
a powerful and workable German
economic system. Reasoning from
this premise, some saw we must
weaken the German war potential
by dismantling many of the heavy
industries, and others say that they
should be conserved in order that
the German people may earn a
living and also in order that they
may pay PREPARATIONS.
Before we argue about theories
let us realize the conditions that
will exist. Almost certainly, it
seems to me, we shall find that
the German economy is a ruin.
We shall, therefore, find that the
main question of Allied policy is
going to be not whether we should
ruin it still more. or should not
ruin it, but how we should permit,
and even assist. radical reor-
ganiZation and reconstruction OF
the elements and character of the
German economy. The basic fact
is that after this war there will
not be any such thing as healthy,
normal, German civilian economy.
For there was none before ehe
war. There has been none since
the last war. If ever there is to be
one, it will have to be planned
anew and then created and devel-
oped.
Imagine the mildest conceivable
terms of peace, and Germany will
still be an e, -nomic ruin, inca
pab1e in, her existing industrial
structure of employing all her
people, incapable of supporting a
tolerable standard Of life. Imagine
no loss of territory, no reparatlons
no military occupation, no inter
ference with the internal admin
istration, and the full benefits OF
the Atlantic Charter; suppose that
the only demand of the Allies is
that Germany disarm and that she
should not take any steps to re-
arm for the next fifteen years.
Postwar Germany would neverthe-
less be an economic ruin.
How do we know this? We know
it from what happened between
1919 and -nomely, that after
the first world war Germany never
achieved a workable civilian econ
omy. During the twenty years Of
peace Germany was kept from ar
economic collapse first by foreign
loans. which turned out to bt
grants-in-aid. and when these drlee
up. by Hitler's armament program
The German economy is such tina
If has been able to provide ade
ouate employment only when it re
ceived enormous subsidies r Q n
the Allied peoples, or when it. wa
used by Hitler as a war-maklnl
machine. Forbidden to rearm. ant
without subsidies from US, the pres
ent German r economic structur
will be incapable of employing tn
civilian population. r. .s1.t
The German recovery after: tn
last war began in the autumn g
1924. Before that the German
were in: chaos and misery. Fo
about seven years after 1924 Ger
many borrowed twice as mt e.
abroad as she paid out in repars
tons, and this inflow of foreigl
capital.enabled Germany to restor
and modernize her industrial plan
to- build great electrical power sys
TENS, to rebuild her whole '1ne1
chant marine, and to surpass9 b.
a>wide margin, in spite Of the los
4 of, Alsace-Lorraine. the Saar. an
her colonies. her 1913 exports: "a.
But-and sthis is the irnportan
point--as soon as. the foreign loan
l stopped, as they did after 1881
| the artificial German economy
once collapsed. In the+.winter Q
| 1es2-1s33, when Hitler came to pow
er, there were six million regis
tered unemployed-nearly o n e
third Of. the whole working popu
| lation. Hitler cured this unemploy
| ment. Whereas the Weinlar. Repuh
lie had solved unemployment: o
receiving foreign loans, which wer
not repayable and were therefor
gifts, Hitler cured unemploymen
| by his armament program. =
1898, a. the. .arrning OF German.
was approaching it's peak; and Hi
let was ready for war, there wer
only 164, 900 registered unemploye'
in Germany. ...... ~
AS a matter of fact the German