Evening star., 1944-08-13
Prosperity Is Seen
Alternative to Chance
Writer Hints Boom Benefits
May Last Until 1880
BIZ ODen L. Scott.


A sharp, and probably short, setback
will strike this country when Germany
surrenders and again when Japan SUR
renders. Orders amounting to many
billions OF dollars quickly will be can
celled. Millions Of jobs will be lost with
out an immediate opening Of new jobs
to take their place. The wheels of in
dustry will slow. Retail trade will de-
cline.
All Of the ofhcial forecasters appear
to be agreed upon those forecasts. 1t is
because Of them that Congress now is at
work on plans to try to cushion the
shock that will come first when one war
ends and then will be accentuated when
the other war ends. There now is de-
veloping an argument, however. over
what Is to come after the setback that
will follow Immediately after the war
endings. One small group Of forecasters
is beginning to predict that there never
will be q postwar boom. They insist
that American industry now can pro-
duce SO fast and in such volume that
pentup demand for goods will be filled
very rapidly, to be followed by what
might be called chronic depression.
This line of thought, however, is not
attracting many adherents. Instead,
those forecasters who have been most
nearly right in the past foresee a post
war boom of at least three years dura-
tion, once readjustment from war has
been effected. They expect rather large
unemployment in this boom period, but
with unprecedented business activity
for peacetime. They foresee q pressure
for price rises in many fields unless
controls are retained. They argue that
it is impossible to ignore what will be
about $4,000 900 900 of liquid savings
in the hands of individuals and other
billions Of credits that are going to be
provided for war veterans.
The basis of q postwar boom is seen
In demands such as those that follow:
Demand for new automobiles will be
unprecedented. The automobile indus
try expects TO be able to produce and
sell 5000 900 cars year for several post
war years before the demand Of people
who want and can afford new cars has
been met.
Building Of new homes will have been
restricted for nearly four years when the
construction lid is removed. Millions Of
people with savings now profess q desire
to build homes. Veterans are entitled
now to borrow at low rates of interest
TO buy or build homes. II construction
costs are held at anything like reason
able levels an unprecedented wave of
home construction is in sight.
Then industry must build up some Of
Its inventories. Retail trade will need
to replace stocks of all kinds Of goods
on the shelves Of its stores. The Gov
eminent is going to stake any veteran
who wants to 60 into business with .
low-cost loan 20 that he can stock up
and become q businessman.
There will be a wave of demand for
clothing and for personal furnishings
from millions OF war veterans who will
come back to civilian life with a check
for either $500 or $500 which can be
used for re-equipment. Farmers who
have had record breaking income for
four years running will be in the market
for all kinds of personal and household
equipment, as we'll as farm equipment.
People everywhere are going to be In
the market for railroad and other travel.
Public works, city, State and National,
have been delayed during the war years
70 that there will be immense spending
ON highways and school buildings and
other public improvements.
Demand for American goods from
abroad almost certainly will be un-
precedented for peacetime. Latin Amer
lea will have about $4,000, 900 900 accu-
mulated in war years. much OF which
will be spent in this country. Europe
will be poor, but If the United States is
willing as expected, to extend credits
so that nations abroad can get back on
their feet again. there will be a very
great demand for American products.
All in all, the prospect is favorable
for period OF very great activity in the
years just after the war, allowing for a
period Of adjustment between wars and
Immediately after the japanese wars
ending. How long this period of pros
perity will last Is uncertain. Most OF the
forecasters expect the postwar prosper
ity to last at least until 1850. They look
for the farm boom to end considerably
before that. Farmers, however, are pro-
tected by q Government guarantee of
high prices for two years after the wars
both end 80 that farm income will be
held up artificially at least until crop
year 1948.
1t is probable. in the light OF this
general situation. that the next Presi-
dent will have fairly easy sailing for
the term that starts next January. He
will have some big problems TO deal
with in reconversion. but those prob
lens will tend to solve themselves ~
the savings OF individuals and the loans
to veterans, plus any foreign loans, are
translated into demand for goods. There
are likely to be many unemployed, even
in the period Of great postwar activity
but most OF the people probably will feel
prosperous.
The President whose term begins in
lS4S, however, may not have such
smooth sailing. The productive capacity
OF American industry now is SO grea,
that many pentup war demands prob
ably can be filled before 1882 There
then will be some dif1icult economic
problems to solve unless by that time
the United States has learned how to
organize the world for an era of sY.