Evening star., 1944-12-17

German defense experts Dut also by
some of the highest Allied military lead
ers, wave of optimism swept over the
United States and Great Britain. Not
only PROFESSIONAL and political proph-
cts but men in the top military posi-
tions, such as Gen. Marshall and Gen.
Eisenhower, were confident that the
Germans would repeat their 1913 act"
and give up the struggle by the end
Of October or November of this year.
The forecasts were based on three
factors.
/. The German military leaders, rec
ognizing that there was no hope for
victory, would wish to spare the Reich's
manpower and sue for peace before
Germany suffered heavier casualties
and greater destruction.
2. The German home front would COL
lapse because of the bad news from the
fighting front and the continuous air
bombardment OF the German cities
g. The German armies, regardless of
how determined they were to fight to
the last ditch, could not last more than
a few months (about the end of this
year, when confronted with a COM
bined attack from the west and the east.
Expected Russian Drive.
At the time of the forecasts both Gen.
Marshall and Gen. Eisenhower were
convinced that the Russian steam roller
would be applied against the Nazis in
full strength from the east. They were
made after the Russians had started
what appeared to be their final Of
fensive from the Vistula to the Posen-
Breslau line and after severe fighting
had reached the east bank Of the
ViStula.
The Soviets had captured Praga, the
suburb of Warsaw, and were supposed
to enter the Polish capital within a
few days. The Polish underground,
commanded by Gen. Bor and taking
orders from the Allies, started their
own suicidal offensive against the we'll
armed German divisions within the city
itself in order to help the task of the
Russians.
The professional prognosticators-
newspaper and radio commentators
proved wrong. So did the men at the
head of our armed forces. We are now
faced with many more months of heavy
battle unless our Russian allies start
their winter offensive before the end
of the year.
Nothing went wrong with the Ameri-
can military operations on the western
front. They were all well conceived
and admirably executed. With the ex-
ception Of the Caen area, where there
was q costly delay, the Allied armies
went through the Germans with less
cost and greater speed than had been
anticipated originally. The divisions OF
Field Marshal Won Rundstedt and later
Won Kluge reeled under the Allied ham
mering and withdrew as quickly as
possible to their main line OF defense
on the Rhine, after losing no fewer
than o,0o0 men.
Seemed Like 1918.
The morale of the Germans began to
deteriorate, particularly within the
Reich, after the much advertised i'm
pregnable" Atlantic Wall collapsed
The plot of the reactionary old-line
German officers failed, but at the same
time it shook the morale of the home
front. Everything looked as if 1918
would be repeated, and revolutions
were expected and sometimes reported
from the usual neutral sources"
But there was an unexpected re-
vival of German morale. The Gestapo
itself could not have gotten the mil
lions of Germans back into line had
it not been for the announcement OF
the 'Morgenthau plan," which left
no hope whatever to the German pop
ulation-the very same people on whom
we had counted to bring about the
overthrow of Hitler and with it a COM
plete chaos in Germany.
The failure of the plot against Hit
Ter lined up the remaining generals
and field marshals behind Heinrich
Himmler. who today for all intents and
purpose is replacing the worn-out and
tired Fuehrer. Himmler seems to have
no illusions that he is military leader.
While Hitler Is still f1gurehead for
the masses, the actual conduct of the
internal affairs of the Reich has passed
into the hands of the Gestapo chief
while the military operations are be-
ing left exclusively to the professional
military men.
Won Rundstedt, who had been re-
tired after the Allied forces had broken
through the Atlantic Wall, is back in
command on the western front and
according to the American generals
who are facing him, is handling the
situation with more than ordinary skill.
Confidence Re-established.
Confidence has been re-established
to some degree to the German people
who believe that their West Wall will
hold against the terrific onslaught of
the Americans and their British, Cana
dilan, Polish, French and Czechoslovak
Allies.
German military leaders tell thei,
people that if they hold tight, the dis
sentions over the spolis Of war between
the Allies themselves would soon cause
a break which would profit the German
people The Germans are being told
that if they hold on. the defeat which
appeared a certainty only four months
ago may be avoided and Germany might
still come out Of this war as united
nation.
But the military factor which led Gen
Marshall and Gen. Eisenhower to predict
the end Of the war before Christmas
was the Russian offensive on the Eastern
Front. There seems to be no question
among all the military experts in Wash.