Evening star., 1944-11-05
Sees South Giving
President Victory
Writer Says Breaks" Favor
Democratic Nominee
By ODen L. Scott.

Democratic Nominee
By OiDen L. Scott.
Some points that will determine tho
outcome Of the November 7 election
appear to be clear before the votes
are cast.
It is apparent, for instance, that the
popular majority in the Nor1h and in
the border States will be much more
harrow than in any other presidential
election of recent times. The margin
in the North might be no larger than
100000 or 100000 votes. This mar
rowing Of the vote reflects trend that
has been running gradually away from
President Roosevelt since 1896.
At the same time, however, this eIec-
ton, like other elections in which Mr..
Roosevelt has been a candidate, may
be landslide In electoral college votes.
1t is likely to be something of an elec-
toral landslide if Mr. Roosevelt Is the
victor. 1t probably will be very close
If Gov. Dewey manages to come
through.
This turn Of affairs explains why all
OF the betting odds and most Of the
forecasts suggest a fourth term. 1t
rests upon the fact that the President
Starts out with bloc of lis votes in
the solid South, plus another bloc in
the border States and still another from
the Pacific Coast. The President is
within hailing distance of the 266 votes
he needs to win even before he moves
to the North and the East.
Gov. Dewey, on the other hand, can
be sure of the votes of only a few
Middle Western States that contain no
really big cities and offer small elec-
toral college vote. Mr.. Dewey must
make nearly clean sweep of the North
if he is to win. If, by accident, he stubs
his toe in State like Illinois or Mich
igan or Ohio, he is in trouble. n he
should lose New York or Pennsylvania,
his chance would be gone.
Then there is the further fact that
the turn of events has favored the
President. The war in Europe is not
over. There is an undoubted feeling on
the part of many voters with sons in
service that change of leadership at
time like this might in some way lead
to a prolongation of the war as Ger
many sought to find if new admins
tration in January might possibly offer
a change in terms.
Also, workers are prosperous. Often
when they are prosperous, city workers
do not trouble to vote, but this year they
are registered in record numbers and
apparently they do intend to vote. At
the same time, the irritations over
rationing and over other war controls
that played such big part in voter
reaction during the. 1912 election now
appear to be much less prevalent.
All of those are things that favor the
Presidents bid for fourth term.
Gov. Dewey, on the other hand, has
based his campaign almost entirely
upon an effort to round up the votes of
discontented groups and individuals.
This effort suffered something of a
handicap in period Of sensational war
events and war successes. If the Ger
man war had ended in September or
early October, the ground for an appeal
of this kind could have been much more
fertile.
AS 1t turned out, the President was
able to point during the campaign to
the obvious success of a war effort he
had directed and to stress the point
that there still was war to win and a
peace to settle. The breaks have gone
in the Presidents direction.
A fourth term, however, obviously
could not be followed by a fifth. Back
in 1886 the President won reelection
with 62.5 per cent of the popular vote
favoring him. By 1910, in winning q
third term, he had 55 per cent of the
popular vote. This time he probably
will be lucky to get SO per cent of that
vote, including the soldier vote, even
with all of the abnormal support that
war tends to give the party In power.
With wars over. the trend against the
Democrats could be expected to be
strong in 1916 and probably overwhelm-
ing in 1948
In the event of fourth term the
President will be lacking in a free hand
in policy making. This Is due to the
fact that he will not have firm con-
troll over Congress.
A Senate that is nominally Demo-
cratic Is almost sure to be returned on
I'D
Jority will be divided along New Deal
and anti-New Deal lines with a coali-
tion OF conservative Democrats and
conservative Republicans in command.
This means that a period of Sadical
legislation in postwar is unlikely.
It is possible and even probable that
there will be a nominal Democratic
majority in the House as well as in the
Senate in the event of a fourth term.
The margin, however, would be no
larger than needed merely to organize
the House. AS in the Senate, the House
would be dominated by coalition of
conservative Democrats and Repub-
licans on all issues of taxation and
business regulation and economic policy
IN general
The next President will face problems
Of peace settlement in Europe first of
all. He also will be up against the
problem of trying to get this country
into world organization. That is to
be a problem that probably will involve
much maneuvering in 1945 and 1916.
There are to be difficulties in adjusting
from war to peace basis in industry,