Evening star., 1944-12-31
Rapid War Changes
May Require More
Production Miracles
BY STERLING F. GREEN,
Associated Press Financial Writer.

Inc American arsenal must prove
anew in 1945 its power to cope
quickly with crises.
Into the great military adven-
lures of 1914 the production lines
poured $64 billion worth of NUM-
tions, probable peak volume of the
entire war.
The job for the new year is S58
billion, as seen by the War Produc-
ton Board on December /.
But that tapered goal already has
been revised upward and may climb
again as the full impact of the Ger
man counteroffensive jars into the
home front.
And its accomplishment is Ger
tain to be beset, officials agree, with
sudden demands from the heavy,
costly slugging against the Nazi,
coupled with problems resulting
from the unexpectedly rapid prog
ress against the Jap.
We have done wonders of pro-
duction-we may have to do mir
acles,' one authority puts it.
Manpower Is Bugbear.
ManpoWer. considered "over the
hump year ago, is the great bug
bear. Materials, parts and plant ca
pacity appear adequate to meet al
most any strain except the most
hasty and drastic revision of mill
tary calculations.
Only a comparative handful of
workers are needed at present
l4l 900 now and 100000 within six
months. But there are few strong,
skilled males left in the manpower
pool
Draft calls will Jump 33 per cent
in January.
Plans for more civilian goods and
the gradual reconversion of indus
try are frozen, and WPB admits it
sees no thaw ahead until the still
powerful German armies are
crushed.
The fourth full year of war thus
opens under completely new
philosophy of national mobilization.
Until December 7 the production
high command tried to keep a con-
stantly adjusting balance between
war and civilian production: it filled
in with consumer goods wherever
war work tapered off
When, on the third anniversary
of Pearl Harbor, the WPB froze
civilian output at the going rate. il
said in effect: This is the ceiline
for civilians. It will meet essentia
needs. Everything else is to be
thrown into the war"
Surplus Risks Accepted.
The Government thus accepts the
risk OF piling up war surpluses. In
war;" said WPB Vice Chairman H.
G. Batcheller, you never have a
sufficiency Of weapons until your
enemy is defeated Then you have
a surplus: you don't need them"
Government leaders now confess
they expected the war to end in
October or November; they were
misled by the dash across France
and repeatedly by overoptimistic
reports from inside Germany.
In WPB a group called CODCAVE
committee on the demobiliZa-
ton of controls after victory in
Europe-buiit plans to restore a vir-
tually free economy when Germany
quit. Similar plans were announced
by the War Manpower Commission
and other agencies.
The plans are shelved. Perhaps
they can be busted off and used
later. But the Army, which in
tended to cut its procurement 46 per
cent on We Day, now says can
cellations will be only about half
that great.
If the new estimate holds up, We
Day will be a tanner affair. Instead
OF unlimited automobile and re-
frigerator production, ceilings will
be placed on the manufacturers.
More controls will be retained gen.
orally, and the construction indus
try will continue under some wraps
though some production officials
think otherwise.