Evening star., 1944-07-30
Staggered Peace Will
Ease Reconversion
Writer Sees Economic Problems
Ahead, However
By OUen L. Scott.

Anead, However
By O1Gen L. Scott.
End OF the German war, now not far
away, will be followed by many changes
affecting the daily lives of the people.
The extent Of those changes, however,
will be tempered by the fact that one
war will still be going on in the Pacific.
The Governments planners had been
most concerned by the drastic nature
Of the adjustment that would occur il
both wars should end at once. They
feel now that they can put aside that
concern ana assess the outlook on the
basis of an end to the German war six
to twelve months before the end of the
Japanese war This means that demo-
bilization almost surely will be in two
stages.
When the German war ends, at some
time in the months just ahead, the
Governments planning suggests series
of developments of the type now de-
scribed.
Draft Of men for military service will
soon come to halt for all except IT.
year-olds reaching 18. So long as either
war goes on, these youths probably will
be drafted. Demobilization of men from
the Army will start soon after the Ger
man war ends First out probably will
be older fathers in camps in the United
States. Fathers in the European the
ater Who have had front-line service
are promised that they will be the first
TO be sent home. Plans call for about
100000 Americans out of between 3,O00,-
600 and 1000, 900 in the European the
ater to be used in occupying Germany.
or those not so used, about 250O00 q
month will be demobilized in the early
months after the German war ends.
Men in the Pacific theater will 20 on
fighting.
There will be faster, more drastic de-
mobilization in factories at home. An
immense total of orders will be Cancelled
as soon as the first war ends. War
lndustry's production will be expected to
fall rapidly to a level about so per cent
or less OF the present. Army orders
OF all kinds will be slashed right and
left Even aircraft can expect to be of
about 80 per cent. This means that
many men will be discharged. Civilian
industry will not be able to absorb all
OF these men in the reconversion period.
so that the planners expect the army
OF unemployed to grow to about 5000
600 within twelve months after the end
of the German war.
Incomes will begin to fall immediately
after partial peace comes back. Much
overtime will end. Returning veterans
Will exercise their right to take back
old jobs at the expense of men who
substituted for them. War industrya
profits will decline. There will begin to
be some worry about the outlook for the
postwar era.
For civilians as . whole, however.
things will improve.
Gasoline rations probably can be in
creased soon after the German war end,
although those rations cannot be re-
moved owing to demands Of the Pacific
war. 1t may be possible 10 end fuel
oil rationing at some point in the
winter to come First new cars will he
available early in 1945 but they won
be available to the average motorist.
1t probably will be late 1945 or some
time in 1s46 before cars, refrigerators
and other consumer durable goods begin
TO make an impression.
New home construction probably will
be getting under way during the first
part Of next year. Lumber will con-
tinue to be scarce, however.
Rationing of some foods may go on
until the end Of the Japanese war but
sugar rations and some other food ra-
tlons should end not long after the Ger
man defeat. Shoe rationing proba bly
can be removed soon after the German
war. At that time, too, there probably
will be the first release of nylon for hos
iery. Silk will not be available again
until several months after defeat of
Japan Cotton textiles. now scarce. will
become abundant rather quickly once
the military demand SlackenS with the
end of the German war and more labor
abundant.
Synthetic rubber now is being pro-
duced in quantities greater than needed
and when the rubber of the East In
dies becomes available. as 1t will in a
few months after the Pacific war ends,
rubber will be drug on the market.
Paper for the publishing industry will be
much more plentiful few months after
the end of the German war when mill
tary demands will be lower and more
labor will be available. Norway and
Sweden can help to replenish supplies
then, too.
Individuals should not expect much. IL
any, reduction in their income taxes
until after the Japanese war ends.
There is a good deal of doubt whether
substantial reductions can occur then.
II there is ever to be a balance in the
Federal Governments budget. Corpora
tions may be relieved of part of the
excess-proflts tax on income earned in
1945. First plans call for cutting the
present excess profits tax rate of 95 Der
cent to so per cent. This tax probably
will be removed in the year following
the end of both wars.
Prices are going to be controlled at
least until July /. 1945, and maybe
longer. Even so. the price of civilian
goods often will be much higher when
production is resumed after the war
than before the war. Quality will be