Evening star., 1944-04-23
Draft Demands
Declining
By O,pe,, L. Scott. +.

| By OtDen L. Scott.
An end to the heavy draft Of men for
military service now is coming clearly
into sight. Unless losses, as q result OF
the coming invasion, are greater than
Anticipated there viii be definite
eAsing Of demand by September.
A distinct possibility exists that rela-
lively few men aged over 80 and In es-
sential civilian or war jobs will be
drafted for military service. At the same
time, 1t is probable that most physically
fit men, aged under 80, will be in service
by September /, regardless Of whether
they are or are not fathers
Statistically, the situation Is about
like this:
The Army now is at its full strength
Of 100000 men. That includes botn al,
and ground forces To maintain that
level viii require about 100000 replace
ments month. It may rise above that
figure II . decision is reached to retire
many men who reach 80. The Navy,
Marine Corps and Coast Guard are
within about 100000 Of their goal of
100000 men. About 100000 men a
month from April through August
should bring these services near to full
strength, taking into account the re-
| placement needs. After August about
$4,000 men month will be required by
these services for replacement.
All Of this suggests that about 100000
men must be found between now and
September /. That leads to the ques-
| ton of where the needed men are to
be found. The answer is the one that
| follows:
Industry Is expected to give up about
100000 men, physically fit and under
age 26. now deferred by reason of occu-
patton. That draft will just about drain
industry Of physically At young men in
the age group of 1s through as.
Agriculture is expected to provide
about 10000 physically At young men
from among the 100000 or more now
deferred in the age group 1s through as:
Farms provide the remaining great res
ervoir Of physically At young men and
very easily could provide 100000. Con-
gress, however. has made special rules
to govern deferment Of farm youths so
that agriculture will not be drained Of
| young men to the same extent as in.
dustry.
Youths aged II, reaching IS will pro-
vide about 75000 men month for the
four-month period to add 100000 to the
required total.
Altogether that gives about $500
men to meet the 100000 goal. The added
10000 win have to come from the age
group rs through 90, from volunteers,
and from men over age 80 who are not
In essential occupations and who will
be drafted up to age 80. It Is probable
that much the same rules that now
apply to deferment for men aged ls
through Is viii be applied after July /
to men aged 26 through 20.
Once Army and Navy needs for men
for expansion purposes are met, then It
is estimated that about 125,0o0 men q
month will be needed for replacement.
Draft calls probably will be geared to q
demand OF about that size after Septen-
Der /. This demand largely will be met
by youths reaching the ages of IS and
/ from volunteers from the 17-year- -olds.
There will be increasing pressure, too,
for draft Of young physically fit men on
farms. ssa8t1o s<-s aaxsg5
The result of all Of this is that men
OF age 80 and over, where doing work
that is regarded as essential, probably
will not be called in large number in the
future. This outlook could change If
losses due to invasion of Europe are
larger than now anticipated, or If losses
growing from the war with Japan are
larger than expected. There Is no way
to determine in advance exactly what
the replacement demands will be.
Sudden shift of draft emphasis away
from dependency and occupation in de.
termining who shall be deferred Is due
to the Army need for more young men,
This need has forced deferment to be
based almost entirely upon basis of
age. s...
Army age. just before the latest shift
IN draft policy, had passed AZ as an
average. 1t once before had approached
age 28 as an average and at that time
the minimum draft age was lowered to
IL In order to bring down the average,
In the Navy the average age Of men Is
around 22 and in the Marine CORPS It is
under Il. Those services have had their
pick OF the men in the past. It Is the
Army that now faces the most grueling
task and the task that places the heav-
lest physical strain. That explains pres
ent Army insistence upon draft policies
that will give men of the age required.
+
OF the young men now being drafted,
a large proportion will find service in
the infantry. The Army Air Forces are
crammed with young men and are giving
up some to the Army ground forces.
| The various special branches of the
Army, including artillery and armored
forces and antiaircraft and service forces
are amply supplied with men. 1t is the
| infantry that has had to do the bulk
| of the work to date and 1t is the infan-
| try in which the manpower SHORTAGES
| are most real.
This country soon will have per.
formed the remarkable feat of organiz-
ing military forces of about IL 400 900
men while at the same time maintaining
an industry that not only is supplying
these forces with the arms that they
need, but is providing the British Rus
sian, French and other armies and ma
vies with equipment.
taught radio over the radio" and