Evening star., 1944-11-13
European War Crisis
Seen Within II Days
Believes Final "Breakthroush'
Hinges on Weather
By David Lawysnes

Hinges on Weather
By David Lawysnes
The next three weeks may be the mos
critical of the war in Europe.
There's = bare chance that, II thu
Allies get the breaks" the Nazi lirs
may be broken and the road to Berlia
thrown open to our overwhelming NUM-
Der OF tanks and ground forces protected
as they will be by the biggest tactical
air force the world has ever seen.
The main factor is the weather. II
the Allied armies can break through
before mud bogs down our tanks and
rain and fog impair our flying, the war
In Europe could be decided before the
middle of December.
But II the weather is unfavorable and
the "breakthrough" Is held back the
European war may be prolonged well
into 1945.
1t is taken for granted by military
men that beaten nation does not 70
through winter season unless there is
some hope Of doing something effective
in the way of resistance in the spring.
And, II war is prolonged into the
spring months, the feeling of the de-
Tending side is that having gone through
the worst Of the months it is worth while
trying to fight through the summer and
autumn.
Morale Seen Cracking.
The World War came to an end in
November largely because the German
people dreaded another winter. There
Is evidence Of the most reliable charac-
ter available today that German morale
Is cracking notwithstanding the camou-
f1aged reports to the contrary which
have been supplied by German propa-
ganda
If, therefore, German morale is shak-
ing and the Allied armed forces can get
through on the western front the Ger
man people will 60 along with the large
units OF military forces that are ex-
pected to give themselves up. surren-
der by any organized government in a
formal way never really has been eY-
pected. The expectation Is that uncon-
ditional surrender will be ACCOMPLISHED
piecemeal.
The big drive on the western front has
been delayed until now by reason of
the German tenacity in holding the
channel ports. All our armies in North
ern France and Belgium have for q long
time had to be supplied from artifcally
constructed harbors and landing places
The acquisition OF every port has been
delayed by German garrisons instructed
wisely to hold out to the bitter end 80
as to delay the Allied supply line from
functioning in time for the autumn
drive.
But heroic measures have been taken
to capture Antwerp and. OF course. the
armies in mid-France have been sup
Piled from Mediterranean ports which
fell more easily than those in the north.
But the total tonnage passing through
all available ports in recent weeks in
France has been small compared to
what 1t now is or will be in the I'M
mediate future
Just which place In the Allied line
Will receive the maximum support for
the "breakthrough" is q military nays-
terry for the moment which the Ger
mans doubtless would like to solve But
unspectacular as may be the gains Of
a few miles here or there each day, the
whole world will soon see revealed the
pattern OF Herculean attempt to
smash through and end the war in
Europe before Christmas.
$3.50 Chance.
Estimates as to the probabls out
come vary here among the vell.in-
formed. The belief prevails that there is
a $3.50 chance Of getting the breaks
and ending the war soon. Inasmuch
as so much depends on the weather
encountered, the situation does not lend
itself to forecasting by military men.
One thing. however, is certain.
Whether the "breakthrough" is or LIS not
successful, there is on our side no in
tention of settling down to trench war
fare for the winter. There is every
reason to believe that the air war will
be Kept up to an intense degree from
behind our lines from the many hun
into operating condition in France, par
ticularly in the southern area. Here
the midwinter nildness will enable us
to carry on strategic air bombing of
German factories and supply depots on
an even bigger scale than was possible
last winter when most OF the flying
had to be done across the fog bound
Channel from English ports.
Will the German people see the fu-
tility of it all and give up? This may
happen any day or week or month now.
For when the Allies have demonstrated
their might on German soil and the
big Russian armies which are used to
winter fighting get under way again,
the German generals may ask for an
arinistice one by one until Organized
resistance is reduced to relatively small
areas for mopping up in 1945.
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