The Wilmington morning star., 1944-05-29

o1looO1N A1I1A, I1ooS., NloJ ~.
From a civilian point of view the
tire situation is currently more
critical than the gasoline supply.
The prouction Of synthetic rubber
will about equal, by the end OF
this year, our inventory of natural
crude rubber, namely about 600 00C
tens, which was on hand at the
end of 1941.
Meanwhile all natural rubber
and most of the synthetic must
go for military purposes. The ever
all rubber supply is now particular
ly acute. I do, however, believe
that the end of our rubber short
age is in sight. But do not think
that tires for civilians are Just
around the corner.
With all pre- Pearl Harbor
sources of natural rubber shut off,
c-r major supply now comes from
the Island of Ceylon. In addition.
some is coming out of the revived
Amaze River valley district. We
also are picking up little Mexican
Guayule and perhaps small
amount of natural rubber from
Brazil and from Africa. However,
with the exception of Ceylon, the
great Middle East sources are nat
urally out until we lick Japan.
Our consumption of natural rub
Der, and remember that it is all
for the military, is estimated at
100000 tons for 1914. This COM
pareswith an all purpose use of
natural in 1943 amounting to 34O,-
900 tons and in 1912 to 370, 900
tons. Our stock pile at the begin
ming of the year was about 100000
tons with receipts estimated at 3d.
900 tons. We will cut our inventory
in half by the end of 1914.
Synthetic Production II
The production of synthetic rub
Der was slow in getting under way
but increased in 1943 from a Janu-
airy production of 900 tons to a De-
cember production of $4,000 tons.
The entire years work produced
under $4,000 tons or about one-haE
our total 1912 consumption. Syn
thetic production capacity has ex-
banded rapidly during 1914 and for
1914, reached an annual
pares with an all purpose use of
output rate of $4,000 tons. AS
plants are exceeding their rated
capacity output should progressive
" rise. I estimate for the full year
that about $4,000 tons will be
made.
Our 1914 American rubber con-
should look something
ike this:
Natural Crude, 100000.
Reclaimed, 100000. S 2
Synthetic. 100000.
Tons. 100000
The difference between OUR syn
hetic production of say $4,000 tons
md of the 100000 tons which we
Use, or about 10000 tons, will be
end leased or stocked for our
uture use. All natural reclaimed
will be used or set aside for war
Out of the above syn
hetic supply about 100000 tires
will be made this year for civil
ans against an estimated need of
yer 100000.
Postwar Outlook III
Natural rubber, and perhaps to-
al rubber supplies, will be short
n from two to five years afterlhors
lie war. 1t will take some time
} clear up the Far East planta-
ons after the Japs are driven out.
OF much more than 100000 tons
year for the first two or three
ears can be e2Sected from pre-
ar souces. The United States
one will equire 100000 tons of
lbber annually which may bel
ose to SO per cent of the needs
the entire world. Estimating our
'oductlon of synthetic at 1,OOO,OOO|
nslt looks as though our syn.
etc plants might have 100 peril
mt capacity operation ahead of
EN- for few years after the war|I
over; but after 1850 look out
lire company stocks, while SELL
g at about their best prices since|I
e war, may not be too high: but Ill
40 not know. Earnings for 1e44H
oaio run close to 1943 and divi-
nos may run a little higher as