The midland journal. (Rising Sun, Md.) 1885-1947, 1944-08-04
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CAN FDR BE BEATEN?
HAS DEWEY A CHANCE?

be beaten? Has Dewey chance?
Stories have been creeping into the
newspapers that the Republican con-
vention had a defeatist spirit. The
administration partisan writer's
chose that not unusual political line.
The London Times, which always
assumes itself to be the British en-
pire, has editorially derided Repub-
lican chances, but this also may re-
fleet a personal interest. The Times
may wish to continue the Church.
in-Roosevelt dealings into postwar.
Yet aside from these interest-in-
spired stories, there is rather
wide prevailing awe of the Roose-
welt tendency to control everything,
a respect for his great powers, and
naturally he is doing nothing to dis
courage that Interpretation.
But this is usual technique in
his campaigning, the imposition Of
an atmosphere of encouragement
upon his opposition.
SUMMARIZE CHANCES
A factual reporting job on this
convention, however, will give you a
different picture. If you will probe
the state and sectional leaders for
their honest opinions, you will find
the situation somewhat like this:
The Pacific coast regions are
doubtful or prof. Roosevelt as a whole
today. Oregon gives Dewey his best
Coast chance. Important California
will be especially difficult without
Warren on the ticket. I would
count it Democratic. In the Rocky
Mountain regions, the Republicans
think they can carry Wyoming and
Idaho surely, probably also Arizona
and New Mexico but expect to lose
Montana, Utah and possibly Nevada.
livestock trouble is main factor
in the Mountain states, influx of a
million war workers in California;
But the farm states, all Of
them, are considered the best
Republican ground in the cOun-
try, the CLIO has been too much
out here, and the conduct of the
war, economically has been un-
popular. Kansas is in better
Republican shape today than
ever in its history.
Iowa is considered almost GER
tain, the Illinois Republican or
ganiZatiOn definitely promises
this state. Indiana is more doubt
full due to a facti0nal Republi-
can split, but few count it for
Roosevelt. Bricker has a good
chance to carry Ohio.
The Republicans think Dewey can
beat Roosevelt in New York. Penn
sylvania is truly doubtful as is Mas
sachusetts. But Republicans have
the edge elsewhere in the East out
side Of Rhode Island. New Jersey
is debatable but on the anti-Roose-
welt side.
SOUTH TO DEMOCRATS
No one expects anything Republi-
can from the South in the end.
Where, then, do these people de-
rive the conclusion Roosevelt is a
cinch, that Republicans are defeat
ed? Obviously only out of their own
heads.
+, Give Dewey and Roosevelt an
even break west of the wheat
corn belts, count the farm states
Republican, the South Demo-
cratic and you must reach the
conclusion that the election will
turn ON the big industrial COM
munities in central and eastern
states. That is where the fight
will be. Whoever carries them
will win this election.
It is all up to Dewey. He is en-
tering the campaign with the edge
against him psychologically. To
many he is David out after Goliath,
but with the same ending not guar
anteed. Yet the ground is well pre-
pared for him. Republican organi-
cations are functioning in 26 states,
the populous heavy voting ones.
If he conducts an manufacturing,
unintelligent campaign, he can lose
by landslide. If he can keep all
the Republican voters together and
the anti-Roosevelt forces solidifed,
he can win.
My first state-canvass shows
Roosevelt 1874, Dewey 239, doubtful
100, needed to win 266.
If Mr.. Roosevelt makes more than
one or two campaign speeches I
viii be surprised. look for him to
become deeply absorbed in peace
negotiations or final preparations
in August or September, until No
vember, either going abroad or
bringing the other nations here, at
that time, in case their leaders can
come. The news he produces from
such a meeting, with radio adj
dresses from a travelling Preside,
could well furnish his campaign ma
terial.
|
As result of dickering here, the
Pacific coast war businesses will be
protected if Mr.. Dewey is elected
and Warren will have charge of that
matter in the Dewey administration.
This is the only campaign promise
by Dewey that ! heard here.