Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1944-11-12
Allies Find Chino
A Weak Portner
Writer Sees Difficulties LOOMING
in Vacuum
By OtDen L. Scott.

in Vacuum
By Otcen L. Scott.
The prospect that this country will be
able overnight to transform China from
q nation Of uncertain stability into one
Of the worlds four major powers Is
growing increasingly dim. That pros
pect, at best, never was bright
The United States long has been in
terested in China's future. Ever since
December 7, 1871, President Roosevelt
has felt it necessary to try to bring
China to status in the world COM
parable to the United States, the Brit
ish Empire and Russia. The reason is
that defeat Of Japan viii leave a great
vacuum in the Far East that will have
to be filled by a nation Of power and
political stability.
modern great power, to maintain
that status, must have large economic
resources. 1t must have a highly de-
veloped industry with steel as base.
1t must have some economic and polit-
ical stability, with a functioning eco
nomic system. 1t should have a record
lishment that is guarantee against
successful attack.
China today has very few, If any, of
those prerequisites to power. She is
accorded place Of equality with this
country, Britain and Russia because Of
her record in refusing to surrender to
the Japanese during seven years of war.
The question, however, is whether she
will be able to maintain that status
when the time comes after the war to
stand alone in the world and to justify
her position.
A glance at the underlying factors in
the Chinese situation show what 70 ex-
pect
China possesses few developed re-
sources, other than agriculture, and un-
certain undeveloped resources. Her
steel industry amounts to about 100000
tons a year, compared with 100000
tons for the United States. She lacks
source of oil and of many metals.
There is an abundance of coal, and
Manchuria is an area that opens wide
possibilities of development, yet the
SAAAASoS AAA WIG Poct nave iiOt oIlO"i OLA
inclination to develop that area. Popu-
lation in China is so large in relation
to resources that standards of living.
and with them political stability, can be
raised only with the greatest difficulty.
- -
The absence of any modern industry
accounts for China's military weakness.
There is no real Chinese army, judged
by modern standards. United States
officers have trained a few divisions of
Chinese who make good defensive
fighters. Almost all arms and equip
ment, however, must be supplied. be-
cause China is without any except the
most primitive armament industry. 1t
is true, too, that military leadership in
the Chinese Army, above the rank of
captain, is nothing to brag about.
China's political weakness is even
more startling. The bulk Of the Chi
nese Army, other than that part trained
by this country, is inmobilized in block
aiding the so-called Chinese Commu-
nists At the same time, independent
war lords have their own personal armies
| that are not subject to orders from
Chungking and that at times, have re-
fused to fight the japanese. The Chi
neSe government, too, has been slow to
approve any large-scale United States
training of Chinese divisions, fearing
that well-trained army might develop
leadership that would challenge the
central government. Because of these
| facts. no adequate protection was given
| to American airfields in Central China.
and in consequence several of those fields
have been lost to the Japanese. The
| Chinese, with hundreds of millions of
people to draw on, and with armies i'm
modified by civil strife, wanted this
country to send in American troops to
guard the airfields.
In the field of economic and political
organization the prospect is equally
uncertain. Government is of the most
| primitive sort There is no stable sys-
tenn of banking or currency. Foreign
investors after the war are likely to
| find no court system to afford them
protection if they should want to in
vest. Chang Kai-shek, in his book,
"China's Destiny" publication of which
has been suppressed in this country
except in an expurgated version, blames
the troubles of China on foreigners.
| He takes a strictly nationalistic and
antiforeign line.
r 4 X
All of this explains why it is that
people of this country should not ex-
pect too much too soon in the way Of
development in China after the war.
So long as there is lease-lend and so
long as the United States is in a mood
of generosity the Chinese government
will play along, although it has been
with the greatest dificulty that Mr..
Roosevelt has been able to induce
Chang Kai-shek to take even minor
measures of reform in exchange for aid
from this country. Most officials who
are close students of the Chinese situa-
ton expect civil war to break out be-
tween the central government and the
Chinese Communists very soon after
the Japanese threat Is removed. That
fact embarrasses this Government in
supplying lease-lend arms to the Chi
nese because those arms may be di-
verified to furthering civil strife.
Britain and Russia always have been
skeptical of this country's effort to
transform China into a great, indie
pendent power. Ofhcials of those coun-
tries now are taking an II told you so"
49, VA -.