Detroit evening times. (Detroit, Mich) 1921-1958, 1944-10-18
BEHIND
THE News
BY Paul
Mallon

WAShlNh lOIN, Z OVt' 10
w Daring without judgment
is required TO predict the out
come of this election.
Even the polls seem TO be
giving il up. The eminent DR..
Gallup who has never been at
a loss for an answer, has lost
this one.
His October Is forecast, with
the day of reckoning three
weeks off. warned that he al
ways expected A per cent OF
error and then allocated 19
states with almost half the
electoral votes (252) into the
probable error" classification.
In short, nearly half his states
are doubtful.
Beyond this abnormal civilian
doubt there are two other fac
tors which make the election
practically impossible 10 fore
cast. There are 100000 men
and women Of voting eligibility
away from home in the services
and at least 100000 of these
are expected to vote. II would
be against the law for any one
10 poll these votes.
From what ! hear inside,
they are being split fairly
evenly between Roosevelt and
Dewey, and not being cast IN
bulk for either side.
IN BOTH army and navy
l. particularly navy where
career men rely on political APP
pointments for advancement,
the votes are going 10 Mr..
Roosevelt. A regular might
ruin his chance for promotion
if it became known among his
superiors that he voted against
their wishes.
Reserves from civilian life and
a good number of the enlisted
and drafted men, however, are
voting for Dewey as fast as they
can-and rather openly.
But this service vote is not
only an unpollable influence for
advance guessing. il may not
permit the outcome Of the cleo
ton 10 be known for some weeks
after election day. Eleven states
have deferred the count OF these
ballots,
Most important is doubtful,
vital Pennsylvania, where the
military count VIII not be begun
until Nov. %. two weeks after
civilian voting. AS more than
$4,000 military ballots are TO
be counted in Pennsylvania, 1t
is conceivable that the state
could remain doubtful until they
are totaled. Roosevelt carried
it by only $4,000 four years
ago.
California is to start counting
the military vote Nov, "a, Colo
radio. Nov. %: Delaware and
Missouri, Nov. 9: Florida. Nov.
III; Nebraska. Nov. S-l3 (but
not make public the result until
Dec. 81; North Dakota, Nov. 25-
Dec. 3: Rhode Island Dec. s.;
Washington, Nov. 1917; Utah,
Nov. y.
NDER this arrangement,
~ fixed by state law, ii is pos
sble no one will know who is
elected president Nov. 7 until
nearly a month later. Dec. ).
The theory Of these states, in
delaying the soldier count, was
that men at remote fronts should
have plenty of time to get their
votes in. Actually, these and
other states GOT their ballots out
so early, the delay seems to have
been unnecessary Pennsylvania,
for instance. sent her ballots out
Aug. IS, allowing 100 days be-
fore return.
The second factor VIII II c h
makes the election extremely
difficult to gauge is the continu-
Gus fluctuation of war popula-
tons. California and other
West Coast war centers have
been losing many thousands a
week for the last few months.
These people are seeking perma-
nent peacetime jobs, and may
be going back home largely
midwestern and southO
VIII they register? Will they
vote? VIII those remaining in
war centers overthrow the nor
nal partisanship of those states
(southerners, for instance. in
Michigan?) How can any one
weigh these influences accu-
rately?
If you average out all these
enigmas and calculate reason
able expectations. you will give
a slight edge TO Mr., Roosevelt,
but a better-chance-than-Will-
kie-had 10 Dewey.
My election advice Is this:
Wait this year until the votes
are counted.
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