Evening star., 1944-06-04

on the problem of employment after
the war:
Jobs will be needed in private enter
prise and government for about IS ,000,-
600 civilian workers, or 100000 more
than were employed in 1910. The gross
output of goods and services in that last
prewar year amounted to $97 600, 900 900.
If we do no better than reach that level
though it was the highest ever
achieved up to that time-and if the
hours of work remain the same, we shall
have, according to estimates of the De-
partment of Commerce, 100000 un-
employed
This is true for two reasons: The
growth of the population and the
heightened productivity per man-hour
of work. The long time steady rate of
increase in the capacity of the indi-
vidual to produce has been accelerated
by new industrial processes and ma
chinery born of the war.
To provide jobs for 55,00o,0 900 persons
we require an expansive economy,
operating on gross production level of
about $4,000 100000 in terms of 1910
prices, or about s165 900, ,oOo, 900 in terms
of current prices. The required increase
in physical volume of production over
1910 is about SO per cent.
Private Buying Power Needed.
Can the job be done? Figures on cur
rent production-close to 5000, ,000, ,000, 900
q year-suggest that it can be. But the
Government today is absorbing about
half the output. After the war we can
not maintain the needed high level of
production unless there is mass buying
power sufficient to replace large part
OF the Governments outlays for war.
The enterprise system as we know it
today will be put to critical test. For
1t is clear that if private industry, after
the period of transition from war to
peace, fails to provide the jobs neces-
sary to bring employment to reason
able" total, there will be a demand for
Government Intervention that no DO
htlcal party can resist. Nearly every
body agrees that some Government
spending on public works will be re-
quired while industry is getting itself
readjusted; what we are considering
here is the prospect that industry will
face If, for whatever reason, it fails to
deliver the jobs after it has got back
to normal peacetime production. As
Henry j. Kaiser has said, we have en-
tered century of social consciousness.
Mass unemployment in private enter
prise will bring on mass Government
employment, with all that this involves
In the way of Government controls
over the economic system
Numerous spokesmen of private in
dustry have expressed their awareness of
the dangers that will confront it in the
postwar period. Notable among the
organizations actively at work on the
postwar employment problem is the
Committee for Economic Development,
headed by the president of the Stude-
baker Corp, Paul G. Hoffman. The
CED has the blessing and support of
the Department of Commerce. With
Eric Johnston and others, the CED is
saying that private industry can lead
the way to the highest prosperity the
country has known. But, it adds. this
can only be done within "a favorable
economic climate"
Full Employment Impossible.
typical OF the views of many in
dustrial leaders is the statement of the
CED that ''the existence of the free
enterprise system, and of democracy
itself" depends largely upon the ability
OF industry to avert mass unemploy-
ment. The national welfare, says the
CED, will be advanced "in direct pro-
portion to the number of workers en-
ployed by private business enterprise.
The term reasonable" in reference
TO the employment goal is used adj
visedly. Absolutely full employment is
impossible in dynamic society. Besides
the unemployables, there are ALWAYS
workers idle because of technological
cnange or some other reason arising
from the very nature of progressive
economy. Even in 1s43, with the coun-
try being combed for every available
worker, there were 100000 UNEMPLOYED.
The 55,000,oO0 figure we have used as
the number of needed jobs after the war
represents what most authorities agree
would be a satisfactory total. Even with
that many employed there would prob
ably be 100000 others out of work at
any given time
AS it confuses the issue to talk loosely
OF full employment, so it does also to
speak Of manufacturing as if it alone. or
cnleIly, carried the burden of providing
new jobs. In particular, there is too
great tendency to rely on the great
manufacturing orporations-Ford Cen
eral Electric, General Motors, United
States Steel and the like-to provide
the answer to the employment problem,
Manufacturing Takes One-Fourth.
lhey, and manufacturing in general.
can provide large part of the answer.
but not all of it by long shot Fewer
than one-fourth of all the jobs in the
country are normally in manufacturing.
Indirectly, of course, 1t makes Jobs in
other fields, but for the direct creation
OF the great bulk of the required Jobs,
even under the largest imaginable ex-
pansion of manufacturing, we must
look elsewhere.
To very large extent we must look
to the small business enterprises of the
country. OF the 5000, 900 separate busi-
ness establishments in the United States,
only about $500 employ more than 900
workers each. About $4,000 employ from
100 to 1000 workers. Roughly As per
cent OF the total business employment
OF the country is furnished by little
concerns with fewer than 100 employees
each.
Small business is still as these fouras