Evening star., 1944-11-09
Lawrence AnoIyzes
Roosevelt Victory
Close Popular Vote Predictions
Were Borne Out, He Maintains
BY David Laurence

BY David Laurence
The American people decided that
this was not the time for a change.
That fact emerges above all others as
the basic reason for the reelection Of
President Roosevelt.
There viii be many other explanations
offered. however, and many local fac
tors will be suggested as having had a
bearing; but, examining the results
across the country, 1t is plain to see that
the trend Of Democratic vote-getting.
which was at the high point of 90 per
cent Of the total vote in 1895 and came
down to SAT per cent in 1910, did not in
its downward curve 60 below the 50 per
cent mark this time ip many States
but stopped at a figure which is proba-
bly, near So per cent.
The predictions that the election
would be 'closep were borne out on the
popular vote side. but not in respect to
electoral votes. The fact that fewer
than 100000 votes probably will be
found, in the final tabulation, to have
separated Mr.. Dewey and Mr.. Roosevelt
in the total votes cast in all the north
ern States outside of the solid South
is an indication of how close the con-
test really was
If out of.the many millions of votes
that were cast-some say it will be as
high as $4,000 ,000-there had been a
change of 10000 or even less in the
North, the electoral landslide would
have been the other way This is men,
toned merely to emphasize the differ
ence between the two methods of call
culating majorities.
Division In North.
The voters in the northern States
really divided rather evenly on the
question of whether Mr.. Roosevelt
should or should not be retained in
power. From the fact that number
of Republican senators and governors
were elected in States that gave their
electoral ballot to Mr.. Roosevelt, 1t is
evident that the tide of Republicanism
was running strong but not strong
enough to overcome the vote-getting
talents of Mr.. Roosevelt. This was
proved in New Jersey and Massachu-
sets, both of which the President car
ried but both of which elected Repub-
licans to the Senate.
The Roosevelt victory was not a sur
prise because, ever since the campaign
began, it has been apparent that the
fear of changing horses in midstream"
would supersede party lines and give
the President the benefit of the doubt
no matter how vigorously Mr.. Dewey
might campaign on domestic issues.
1t is too early to determine Just what
the mandate of the election was. Ger
tainly it was mandate that the war
be carried on without change under the
present Commander in Chief 1t was,
in effect, a vote of confidence in the
administrations conduct of the war.
Whether, on the other hand, it is
specific instruction as to the manner
in which the new League of Nations
shall be set up, or just what Americas S
role of participation therein should be,
may well be open to argument. This
is because the broad principles of the
issue itself we're lifted out of partisan
politics by the two nominees after the
Dumbarton Oaks conference.
About all that could be inferred from
the result is that the Middle West is
still anti-administration and perhaps
would resent being called "isolationist."
Here and there some members of Con-
gress with 'isolationist" records were de-
feated, but here and there some were
reelected, and there are a number on
both the Democratic and Republican
sides of the aisle in the Senate who
were not up for reelection.
Future Questions.
1t may be predicted at this time that
the election of President Roosevelt by
narrow popular majority has by no
means settled future questions of inter-
national policy. 1t will require painstak-
ing effort, much patience, and all the
conciliatory spirit that Mr.. Roosevelt can
muster to get treaty ratified whereby
the United States obligates itself to use
its armed forces at the will of a Presi-
dent in the event of a threat to world
peace.
As to Gov. Dewey's prospects for
another try in l948, this will depend
on what he does when he comes up for
reelection as governor in 1946. II
he demonstrates that he has carried
New York State that year by a bigger
majority than ever before, he may win
the presidential nomination in ls4s. He
Is young enough and if the managers
of his campaign, who are in control
of the Republican National Committee.
devote themselves to building up the
Republican party organizations In the
next four years. Gov. Dewey may have
another try at the presidency.
While the election campaign stirred
up much emotion and feeling, 1t should
leave no trace of bitterness. The sea-
soned men in politics know how to take
defeats in their stride and they know
even better that a poor sport can't hope
to win the esteem of the average Ameri-
can voter in future contests. So the
custom Is for the defeated to congratu-
late the winner and quietly prepare
for the next campaign.
And the next one will be, different, for
the soldiers viii be back then and may
demand that some of their leaders be
given some Of the high places Of power.
Reprcducton rishts reseryed)
Frederick the Great
From the Milwaukee Journal
Hitler didn't invent the German at
tack, neither did the Kaiser. Listen to
Frederick the Great