Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1944-11-16
Surrender BY Jopon
Seen as Possibility
Tokyo Business Unlikely to Wait
For Bombinas, Says Observer
By David laurence


For Bombinss, Says Observer
By Dapid Laurence
While the military view here is that
1t may take two years to accomplish the
defeat Of Japan, there II Z possibility
Of an unconditional surrender at an
early date without the necessity Of
achieving military detectives.
The theory on which this reasoning
is built y related to the fact that jap
anese business and economic interests
are not likely to wait for the devastation
OF factories and war plants and the
exhaustion Of industrial resources before
advising the military party in Japan
that itSRould be better to accept the
terms 81 the United States for uncon-
ditionaI surrender.
Japanese businessmen know the
American temperament. They know
that unconditional surrender would
mean American occupation Of Tokyo
and Japan proper. but that 1t would not
be permanent occupation. Sooner or
later, after a liberal government had
been established composed of elements
that would seek to earn the trust of the
United States, the military occupation
would come to an end. Even II such
occupation lasted five years, Japanese
business and economic facilities would
not suner as much as they would by
air bombardment in war to the finish.
The possibility that Japan might ask
for compromise" peace has often
been discussed, and while any COM
promise whatsoever would be rejected,
very little consideration has been given
to the possibility that the japanese
might suddenly accept unconditional
surrender and terminate all hostilities,
Excuse Would Have Logic.
Japan's excuse could be that her Axis
partners, Italy and Germany, will have
forsaken her. With Russia likely TO
come into the war, 1t could be argued
In Tokyo that Japan could not be ex-
pecteo TO hight the whole world alone.
This excuse would have more logical
appeal inside Japan after Germany has
surrendered than before.
japanese business interests know
what American air power can do to
japanese cities and factories. Up to
now Japan has been relatively un-
harmed, and the decision of the United
States to 60 into the Philippines rather
than to try to capture Formosa or to
strike directly at the homeland Of
Japan will help to persuade Japanese
businessmen that once the battle inside
the Philippines is over the war has been
lost and unconditional surrender can
be accepted.
There seems no doubt that the jap
anese gambled on the possibility of
wiping out Gen. MacArthurs forces at
Leyte, but the fleets of Admiral Halsey
and Admiral Kinkaid frustrated that
plan. In this column yesterday it
was indicated that Admiral Halsey
tested the Philippine defenses and,
nnding them weak, urged that the
attack against the Philippines be &C.
CELEBRATED. Assuming that Admiral
Aalsey knew that a commitment had
been made to strike at the Philippines
frst rather than farther north, what he
recommended merely fastened the
schedule of that program. The alter
nate plan often advocated by experts
was that American naval and air
power should strike at Formosa or the
heart Of Japan directly, thus by-passing
the Philippines and leaving the latter
archipelago to be mopped up.
The Japanese, of course, may feel that
there Is no urgency about unconditional
surrender now as the Philippines cam
paign will take several months But If
they wait too long it may be that some
OF the Japanese cities and war plants
Will suffer considerable destruction, be-
cause 1t is obvious that America
powerful fleet is not going to be indefi.
nitely occupied with the Philippines even
though our ground forces will be heavily
involved there and we may be unable for
some time to land any substantial forces
anywhere except in the Philippines area,
Support for Theory.
Some support for the theory that JAP
| anese business interests may be already
thinking of unconditional surrender has
come during the last "a hours in the
following dispatch by the United Press
from Chungking:
Private reports from sources inside
Japan said that Premier Kuniah Koiso
has warned industrialists that the
Battle Of the Philippines probably rep
resents Japan's last opportunity to OBJ
tain terms more favorable than uncon-
ditional surrender.
These reports claimed the japanese
government is preparing influential seq
ments Of the public for eventual defeat,
stressing that resistance in the Philip
pines must be as prolonged and as bitter
as possible to win the best possible
peace terms"
Likewise, in news dispatches from
Pearl Harbor in the last few days, there
has been mention of the theory that
Japan might suddenly give up. Admiral
Nimitz, 1t will be recalled, said last
summer that while Japan would most
certainly be occupied by our military
FORCES. there was no certainty that an
invasion would be necessary to accom-
plish that objective. The remark, which
was rather cryptic at the time, seems
now to fit in with the theory that pos
sibly the japanese may come to regard
unconditional surrender as much the
best solution Of their dilemma.
Meanwhile, our military and naval
men are ruling out the theory as inter-
esting but improbable. They are con-
centrating on. the Job Of defeating