Evening star., 1944-07-23
Authorities Debate
When War Will End
Admirals and Generals Join
Statesmen in Hopeful Views
Bv James waldo Fapcett.

By James Waldo Faucet.
Opinions about when the war will end
are almost as numerous and as various
as people. Everybody seems to have an
idea of the date of the termination Of
the great struggle, yet nobody really
knows. A casual survey of expressions,
however, suggests that the finish may
be near. Certainly, many individuals In
positions qualifying them to speak have
dared to hope "out loud" for victory
this year-in Europe, If not in the
Orient.
Field Marshal Jan Christian Smuts,
Premier of the Union OF South Africa,
told press conference in London as
long ago as November Is, 1912, that III
the Allied offensives could be pressed"
the conflict might be brought to close
In 1914. The view thus phrased con-
ceivably may have been influenced by
Winston Churchill who, as early as
November S. 1910, had declared: 1--WE
have to look long way ahead on this
sphere of the war; We have to think OF
the years 1943 and 1914" The Prime
Minister mentioned 1914 also on several
later occasions, especially on November
8, 1943 when he said: ut Is q reason
able assumption that, unless we make
some grave mistake in strategy, the year
1914 will see the climax Of the European
war"
The Teheran conference gave trained
observers cause to expect a fulf1llmnet
of Mr. Churchills expectation-so
much so, indeed, that Hanson w. Bald
win, writing in the New York Times
for December 8, ls43, employed prac-
tically his own language in the proph-
ecy: If this (TeheraD strategy is sue
cessful 1914 will be a year of climax
in Europe and year of great progress
toward victory in the Pacific"
Not all commentators, however.
agreed about the hope for prompt gains
against Japan. 1t. COL Orin H. Rigley,
Air Corps officer in the South Pacific,
forecast "a long, hard fight ahead" and
called for facing of grim facts" and
an end to "wishful thinking" The
same conviction prompted Raymond p.
Cronin and Russell Brines of the AS
sociated Press, Gripsholm repatriates,
to warn the American public on No.
vember 4, l943, that: The japanese
people are we'll geared for war and de-
spite hardships at home are firm in
morale, ready to follow their leaders
for at least another five years"
At the close of l943, Gen. Peyton C.
March, chief of staff in the First World
War, likewise was quoted as believing
that the conflict in the Orient would
be long and costly He was at equal
variance with Gen. Dwight D. Eisen-
hover and Admiral Ernest j. King in
their insistence that Germany could
be defeated this year. But the COM
mander of the American forces in the
invasion Of Europe in the present con-
test on January l last did not hesitate
to assure correspondents in North
Africa: The only thing needed for us
to win the European war in 1914 is
for every man and woman all the way
from the front line to the remotest
hamlet in our two countries tthe United
States and England to do his or her
full duty" Speaking almost at the
same moment, the Nations No. ! naval
officer predicted German defeat dur
ing 1874" and ''unremitting pressure on
Japan simultaneously.
Optimism, meanwhile, marked the
opinion of Senator Joseph c. OMahoney
OF Wyoming, who. also on January /.
1914. anticipated "the early collapse of
Germany and the end of the Pacific war
by the close of this year" His judg-
ment was based on his faith that the
Germans cannot continue to take the
beating that Is being inflicted upon
them and when Germany falls, the
one fundamental factor that prompted
the japanese to attack us will
have ceased to exist
But the Navy, as disclosed by a re-
lease of the ONCE of War Information,
January 9, indicated the continuance of
the war for at least three years when it
projected plans for plane production
into l945 and for its shipbuilding pro-
gram through 1947"-a schedule of more
than 500 combatant ships, about 400 pa
troll and mine craft. more than 600 aux
iliary vessels and allegedly 10000 land
ing craft as we'll as an unspecified air
craft list.
One reaction to seemingly slow devel-
opments in the Pacific was that of Capt.
Edward v. Rickenbacker who, on Janu-
airy IS. issued a warning" that I'VE
won't live long enough to see the war
won by taking it island by island"
The next day brought statement from
Admiral Chester w. Nimitz, Pacific Fleet
commander, that "a long. hard job
still lies ahead before Japan surrenders."
decision in Europe in 1914 seemed
reasonably feasible to Gen. Sir Henry
Maitland Wilson, commander of the
Allied forces in North Africa, on Janu-
ary l8. But Walter Nash. New Zea-
lands Minister to the United States,
cautioned on January %: Many peo-
pie are beginning to feel that we are
approaching the close of the war. They
are making very great mistake. 1t is
true that there is no longer any danger
OF our losing the war. But before we
have finally won it we must still do
lot OF hard fighting. In the Pacific at
least that is going to take several years
more" Prime Minister Mackenzie King
OF Canada likewise was pessimistic
when, on February II, he said that "un-
foreseen circumstances" might prolong