Evening star., 1944-04-02
Allies Anticipate
End of War
BIZ OUen L. Scott.

lHeTe Is growing OIncidl concern over
the prospect that the present war in
Europe viii end, as did the last one,
without specific commitments on poll
cies designed to shape the kind of post
war world that has been promised. This
concern grows in part from the inability
of the United States to give guarantee
Of its postwar attitude on definite issues.
The difficulty now confronting Presi-
dent Roosevelt and Secretary Of State
Cordell Hull Is inherent in this coun-
try's political structure. 1t is the same
difficulty that cropped up rs years ago.
This time, however, other nations are
aware Of the difficulty and are making
their plans accordingly. Russia and Brit
ain and even China are wary about
placing too much reliance upon general
expressions of American postwar policy
as given by the White House They can
not be sure that MIR. Roosevelt will be
in the White House nine months from
now. Much less can they be sure that
Congress will approve any policies that
are enunciated.
AS result of this situation. Great
Britain is exploring the possibility of a
new alignment Of nations in Western
Europe to be grouped with the British
Empire. Russia is following very strong
Russia-first policy, emphasizing a de-
termination to seek security on her own
terms rather than on basis of COL
lective action. At the same time, officials
who keep in touch with those things
report definite nationalistic trend in
China. Instead Of trend toward post
war cooperation as the basis of dealing
with political and economic problems
growing from this war, the trend appears
now to be toward a basis of "every man
for himself"
So far as the United States is con-
cerned, there Is not much that can be
done in this election year to reverse the
trend. Yet 1t is during this year that
the decisions affecting the shape Of the
postwar Europe are most likely to be
made. 1t is rather doubtful that this
country will influence those decisions
profoundly, in fields other than military.
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The inherent difficulties, from tho
point of view OF the United States, are
these:
On the issues that go along with plans
to reshape Europes postwar political
organization the White House must take
cognizance of the minority groups in this
country whose vote is important in key
States. When the postwar fate of Poland,
for instance, is concerned, Mr.. Roose-
velt cannot forget that the Polish
American vote is very important in
States like New York, Pennsylvania, Il
linois and Connecticut Even more i'm
portant Is the vote of Italian Americans
in New York and New Jersey, and this
fact must get attention when the Amer
ican attitude toward Italy is shaped.
If the idea Is to break Germany I'D
into little pieces, then thought must be
given to the fact that there is very
large German American vote In the
Middle West, that, while loyal, is in
f1uenced by a sentimental interest in
the future of Germany as q nation.
Those are just samples. Altogether, in
the United States there are 34,5O0, 900
persons who either were born abroad or
were born in this country of foreign
born parents. Not many of these minor
tiles are English or Russian, so that
settlements made to give security to
England or Russia often will affect SEN
timents Of minority voting groups that
can have decided influence upon the
outcome Of national elections.
All Of this means that in an election
year Mr. Roosevelt must tread warily in
using the influence of the United States
to help determine the political shape
OF postwar Europe Yet that is only
part of the problem. Another, and even
more important part relates to issues of
economic policy.
To illustrate: Great Britain cannot
wait until the war is over to shape her
economic policy. War has forced her to
hquidate many of her overseas invest
ments. She is uncertain about the United
States attitude toward lease-lend debt.
She has suffered very heavy losses in her
merchant marine Europe, which she has
served as middleman, f1nancier and
supplier, is impoverished.
Britain, in shaping her policy, needs
to know now whether or not lease-lend
obligations will be Cancelled. Mr.. Roose-
velt cannot give definite answer be-
cause he cannot be sure of the attitude
of Congress. The British need to know
whether the United States, after this
war, will permit nations who buy here
or who owe debts here to pay for the
things they buy or service their debts
with the goods that they produce, or
whether this country still will want to
sell abroad but to limit imports. The
President cannot answer that question.
Likewise, Great Britain needs to know
whether this country in postwar will be
prepared to finance world reconstruc-
ton on a vast scale or whether Amer
leans will be wary with foreign loans.
She needs to know whether her ship
ping losses are to be made good by this
country, or whether an effort will be
made to use the vast new American
merchant marine for competition.
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In the absence of answers to these
and other economic questions, the Brit
ish are forced to look for ways and
means to protect themselves in the
event the United States tends toward
economic isolation.
Russia already is organized on a
nationalistic basis of self suff1ciency. She
is an all-powerful Socialist state, with
the government rigidly limiting imports