The Wilmington morning star., 1944-09-09
Postwar Slump and Boom

are busily working on the greatest jigsaw puz-
At the best, opinions, individually and col
lectively, are strictly speculation They do not
know what lies ahead and draw their conclu-
sions not only from previous similar, but much
smaller, experiences and from certain trends
they believe they see at present.
Richard L. Stout, writing in the Christian
Science Monitor, first saying that in the pres
ent mood Of Congress the government will
probably not do a great deal about curling
the boom mo matter whether it's President
Dewey or President Roosevelt recklessly
OTIS his own world sets down a calendar of
coming events, based on DR.. E. J. Howen.
stine's study for the American Council on
Public Affairs, called The Economics of De-
mobilization.
Briefly the calendar is this: 1914 German
war ends. Reconversion recession starts:
1875, Japanese war ends. Reconversion reces.
sion mixed with reviving business; 1916, the
boom starts - if it hasn't sooner; 1946-1o5I
the boom lasts. 1t may last ten years, econom-
lists say, if it is nursed along bit And then?
The big enigma.
Mr.. Stout adds: I ought to say Immediately
that I don't know this is going to happen and
and neither does Dr. Howenstine
Another calendar is offered by the United
Business Service of Boston It does not include
such long-range view as DR.. Howenstine'
but is more specific on separate phases of
business and investment prospects following
V-day. In reproducing it here, we again caution
readers to remember that the future is
beyond mortal representation. says the fore
cast:
Production - 35-40 per cent decline
IN war production under the impact of ex-
tensive contract cancellations This will mean
about rs per cent drop in total industrial
activity as measured by the Federal Reserve
Index
Reconversion The green light for
extensive swltchback will be flashed prompt
~ following Germany's collapse. Reconversion.
Tor the most part. win be accomplished within
three to six months after V-day, but it will take
some time thereafter tc reach real volume out.
put and restock dealers. First noticeable in.
creases in civilian supplies will be in foods
snoes' apparel. and other nondurable goods
where producers have no real reconversion
problems Average person will probably not be
able to buy new car until late 1915 or earlv
1916.
Labor shorta ges - Will quickly give
way to SURPRISES after Germany quits. Close
to five million jobless are forecast within sly
months of the end of the war in Europe Labor
troubles will increase as unions press for an.
nual wages and higher hourly rates to offset
loss Of overtime pay.
| Consfos - Will be retained, but will be
eased progressively as conditions permit. Food
rationing will probably be largely ended with.
IN Six months Of V.day in Europe. Gas rations
Will be increased in the East and Midwest
1airly soon after Germany falls, but West Coast
races continued tight restrictions due to In.
creasing Pacific war needs.
Prices - End Of German phase will hr;ns
considerable unsettlement for a while until
inventory positions, surplus question, and post.
war needs can be gagged. However. no mark
ca general decline is likely due to continued big
industrial costs and government support pro.
grams. Long.pull price trend will continue tc
b upward under influence of inflationary
forces.
Retail Sales - Will slacken moderately
Tor while due to war worker layoffs, loss
OF overtime pay and general job uncertainty
However, huge pent up demand for autos. re