The Waterbury Democrat., 1944-12-30

Military leaders, who not long ago were predicting the collapse of Adolf E1itler's Wehrmacft be- fore the end of this year, have revised their estimates on when VIE day will occur, with some placing the end in the summer of l945.
 The revision of opinion on the duration of the European conflict threw a wet blanket on plans for return to peacetine output -- in some areas limited reconversion already had started-and placed new emphasis on the urgent need for critical weapons of war.
 Best evidence of the sudden change in production policy was seen in December when the Na- tional Association of Manufacturers changed the name of it's 18th annual meeting from the Reconversion Con- gress of American Industry to the War and Reconversion Congress of American Industry in recognition of the need for concentrating on munitions production.
 100000 Workers Needed
 Military and government spokes- men at the meeting called for at least 3OO,0OO additional workers for war output, told industry to for get about reconversion until war requirements are met, and in turn were pledged support by tine NAM members.
 As the year came to a close, the War Production Board announced that November arms output was wonderful" but at the same time warned that schedules still call for "tremendous" increases in tho months ahead.
 November output of the B-20 Superfortresses, which have car- ried the war deep into the heart Of the Japanese Empire, increased SO per cent, while 15 other critical programs were beginning to catch up with military needs the WIPE disclosed. It was revealed that the United States currently is develop ing the B-26, a giant bomber that overshadows the B-29.
 War Cost Reaches Quarter TrilIton
 Informed observers estimated that war production, expected to hit $64,- 900 ,000,000 in 1944, will run around $6o, 900, ,0o0, 900 next year. The United States from Jan. 1. 1941 through Dec. 31, 1914, spent nearly $25O,- 900 .OOO, 900 on war or national de- fense measures, it was estimated
 The national income continued to soar to record levels. attaining an estimated $158, 900 100000 in 1914 against $i47 900, ,000,00 in l943, but some quarters look for a drop next year if VIE day comes before the close of fiscal year l945- Employment continued to taper of from the an-time peak of 64, 500, 900 persons set in Septem- Der, 1o43, and it was estimated It may continue to slide in 1945.
 The Federal Reserve Boards in dex of industrial production declined from month to month during 1924, although war output was stepped up late in the year. Many important items, however. set new record highs.
 Steel output was estimated at record 89,4O0,OO0 net tons com pared with 8s.S36, ,366 for l94s. Carloadings made a new all-time top on a tonnage basis. Bitumin- ous coal output hit a record peak at 620,O00O00 net tons against 5Se, ,0O0, 900 in 1943. Electricity pro- duction rose to a new al-time high at 23o,000, 900. 900 kilowatt hours compared with 221, 900 100000 in 1943, and competent observers esti- mate 1945 output will total some 225, ,000, 900 000 kwh.
 Construction volume continued to decline, approximating $1,e00,- 100000 in 1944 against $3,06l ,844,- 900 in 1943. It was estimated that in the first 12 months following VIE day the volume again will cross the $S,000,O00O00 level. Machine tool production slunped to $507, 100000 from $1.200. 900, 900. Deadweight tonnage of ships IS expected to decline from l94S be- cause of a changeover to different types of cargo vessels.
 It was generally agreed 1945 in dustrial activity would depend on the course of the war in Europe and unexpected developments could upset any forecasts made at this time.