Evening star., 1944-06-18
The End Begins
For Germany
Bu Ouen L. Scott.

sbA lltAlbttcy ~ tt1t 1SIAa~&s
At the same time. there is . growing
belief that Japan can be forced into
defeat within a year OF the time that
Germany goes down. This belief Is
based upon expectation that public
pressure will force speedup In the
tempo Of this war. This pressure win
grow from the fact that demobiliza-
ton win start with the end Of the
German war and the millions Of men
who must stay In the Army and Navy,
70 fgfit the japanese war, viii become
yety. impatient 70 Join the other mil
3ens Of men mi the Army who will 60
'bstk 10 efviiisn life with defeat OF
Germany.
The intent on the Army IA to release
from services first Of sfi those men
who have been rAobSlfzed for the long
est tine sfsd WHO hAys seen the hardest
hshtirsx. Even 80, it ID going to be
difncstE 70 sell me country on any
thing less than an aII~out use OF avail
able materials 70 get the Japanese war
won 30 that men can get back to their
peacetine pursuits.
=
At the moment, the German situ-
alton appears increasingly hopeless.
with basic German weakness more and
more apparent.
The German Air Force is so weak
ened that it was unable to take ad-
vantage Of its great opportunity to
strike at invasion ports when the move
on Europe began or to strike at land
Ing beaches when actual invasion oc-
Cured. The Germans never again will
enjoy a comparable opportunity to
make decisive use Of their air force.
The German Army is so strained for
manpower that 1t is using young boys
ana impressed troops including Czechs.
Poles, Russians and French who obyi-
ously cannot make the most effective
soldiers. German transport was so
upset that a major counterattack In
france was delayed long enough to
permit American, British and Canadian
troops to become firmly established.
German industry no longer Is aba
to keep the German Army supplied AZ
IL must be supplied II it Il to stand
up TO the lavish use of weapons that
can be made by our side. German oil
supplies definitely are being strained.
German air losses cannot be replaced
The German Navy has failed to show
anything impressive.
Despite the fact that German Armies
stu hight desperately and with skin
the fact OF basic weakness in the whole
German war machine cannot be con-
cealed longer. When the collapse does
come, 1t probably viii be discovered
that Germany had become pretty much
OF an empty shell with its INDUSTRY. its
transport and its manpower badly
blasted.
These other points are becoming clear.
Ine great German manpower and
material losses in this war have oc.
CURED and probably will occur on the
Russian front.
+. American and British airpower in tn.
west has done and is doing Just about
al that was claimed for It by respon-
sible air officials. The. airplane ha.
just about knocked out The, heart Of
German industry and German trans
port. In the period ahead the airplane
probably will play a major part in
knocking the heart from German armies
IN the west.
Casualties on our side, although thev
Will be heavy, will not be as heavy as
some officials have warned that thew
would be. 1t is notable that casualties
IN almost every theater of war have
been under official estimates. This is
due to the fact that the United States
Is able to throw in machines and metal
IN such lavish quantities. American In.
dustry Is enabling the Nation to win
this war with minimum expenditure
OF LIE. 1t is improbable that the mass
casualties, the casualties in the millions
tnat nave occurred on the eastern front
will occur in the west.
At some point these and other facts
Will impress themselves upon the Ger
mans. When that point is reached. with
RUSSIAN armies pressing from the east
and American-British forces driving
from the south and west, the Germans
probably will be ready to give I'D. The
next few months are expected to be the
decisive months when Germany will be
hit with all Of the Allied power that
has been built up during two and one.
half years Of effort.
once German defeat occurs there will
be release OF naval and air forces for
operations against Japan.
In fact, vast quantity of war ma.
teriai and navy of size four to
fve times greater than the Japanese
Navy even now is in the Pacific. When
the British Navy can shift units to the
Indian Ocean and Pacific areas the way
should be opened for decisive action.
1t Is true that this war could be turned
into very slow type of naval war In
which years could be taken up with
slow-motion jumps and maneuyers.
That type Of war, however, Is unlikely.
1t now has been proved possible to strike
directly at Japan itself by air and to
force the japanese Navy to fight or to
be rendered impotent.
Japan is just group of small islands,
dependent for life upon imports of all
basic materials. including food. Naval
and air action can be used to DESTROY
the war-making ability of that island
in much less time than the last two
and one-half years of slow-motion war
fare suggests.
AS the situation now appears, 1915
may turn out to be the first full wear
of naoco foIloujyoo will r.~.,~