Evening star., 1944-03-19
Rationing's End
In Sight
BIZ ODen L. Scott.

An argument is Startlng among ON.
cials over the time when the average
citizen again will be able to build new
house, or buy a new car, or go into .
store and buy all the beefsteak desired,
or into filling station and load up with
gasoline at no cost in coupons
One school of thought holds that
formal rationing must continue for one
or two years after all war ends In order
to assure an orderly distribution Of
things that will be in immense demand.
A second school Of thought holds that
rations should end just as soon as pos
sible after the German war ends. The
Army and Navy prefer that the whole
subject be dropped for the time being.
Actually, it appears that the ofncia
group favoring the earliest possible end
to rationing is the school that Is domi-
nant. This school relates Its planning
to the end Of the German war on the
ground that the war with Japan will
require only fraction Of the Nations
productive energy when only that war
remains to be won.
On that basis, the best appraisal as
interested officials make it, Is the one
that follows:
A new automobile probably will be
among the last Of the things that the
average citizen will be able to enjoy after
a start is made in converting industry
back to a peace basis. The automobile
industry is deeply involved in aircraft
building and will be among the last Of
the industries to get the go-ahead signal
| for production of civilian goods. Then 1t
| will require from four to six months to
produce the first cars. These cars will
| be in immense demand and will be ra-
toned by the industry itself, not by the
| Government, if officials have their way.
| Late 1945 or some time in 1948 Is the
earliest to expect new car.
Gasoline rations probably will have to
continue until the japanese war ends.
| The East Coast certainly and the Mid
die West probably will get larger rations
| very soon after the end of the German
war; Driving as usual will have to await
peace. Tires will begin to be more plenti-
full in 1945 when the synthetic rubber
program Is in full operation. Tires Of
crude rubber will not be available for
many months after the East Indies are
recaptured.
Rationing of fuel oil probably can end
| just as soon as the German war ends.
The problem in fuel oil is one of trans
portation, rather than of shortage, be-
cause much Oil is available in the Car.
ibbean area once it can be imported.
Production of electric refrigerators,
vacuum cleaners and other household
appliances probably can start again
soon after the end of the German war.
These things may become available
some time in 1945. There Is no
intention to ration them on a formal
basis. New houses to put them in, how
ever, are likely to be delayed for q time.
That is due to the fact that lumber and
some other materials are likely to be
scarce for period following the end Of
the war with Germany.
The outlook in food and clothing Is
somewhat mixed.
Shoe rationing should end very soon
after the German war ends. There Is
plenty of leather in Australia and Ar
gentina when 1t can be imported. Tie
1 easing Of military demand for shoes
/ will release manpower and machinery
for shoe making for civilians. The re-
turn Of silk for clothing will have to
wait on the end of the war with ia
pan. Woolens and cotton goods can be
abundant and there has been and will
be no rationing.
Food rationing is dependent on several
factors. One of those factors Is the
weather in the United States. A drought
could cause shortages that might force
shorter food rations for longer time.
Another factor is the time of the wars
end in Europe. One good European crop
should end the problem of large-scale
relief after the war ends. If Europe
can plant normally in the spring OF
1945, much rationing probably can end
in this country late in the fall of 1945.
An end of the war with Germany
would permit reduced use of sugar for
alcohol making and would permit an end
to sugar rations. Meat supplies are likely
to fiuctuate sharply in the period ahead,
but with the trend toward tighter sit
uation. Unlimited beefsteaks appear to
be rather long way in the future. But.
ter probably will have to be rationed
for period after the German war ends
and the same is true of cheese Ice
cream is likely to be scarce just as long
as other dairy products are scarce.
One near certainty is that today's ra-
tions of most things probably are as
small as they will be. The next major
move will be in the direction Of larger
rations and then will come a gradual
end to rationing, with the end of the
war with Germany as the principal
time factor
Until the German war does end, the
Army and Navy are to insist that all
emphasis be placed upon meeting their
needs and that civilian needs be given
secondary consideration. This viewpoint
is accepted by the civilian agencies Of
| Government which do not want to be
in position of countering military de-
mands until the war outcome Is more
| certain
The average American is going
through this war on rations much larger
and with rations far more narrow in
their application than any one believed
possible when war started. Civilians
have had plenty to eat and to wear.
| They have not been able to do all Of
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