Evening star., 1944-02-20
Theories
Abandoned
BIZ O1Den L. Scott.

now are being abandoned. One is the
German collapse" theory, the theory
that Germany suddenly will give up
without fight in the west. The second
is the theory that bombing will win this
war.
Both of these theories had been held
by the highest officials. These officials
first expected a German collapse IN
Italy last September. They have looked,
of and on, for German collapse at
home as consequence OF bombing at
tacks delivered during this winter. Both
British and American officials held to
these theories. On them rested the
theory that a German surrender might
come by spring 1914.
1t was acceptance of the German col.
lapse theory that caused the White
House early in the winter to shift en-
phasis to postwar problems OF recon-
version of industry back to a peacetims
basis
Now, however, all is changed. The
Germans have not collapsed in Russia.
Their retreat to date is skillfully exc
cuted The Germans did not collapse
in Italy. There is no apparent sign at
this critical period in the winter that
the Germans are collapsing at home.
AS result, the accepted view is that
German armies must be defeated in the
field before the war is won. The ac-
cepted view likewise is that the earliest
to expect an end to the German war
probably is late fall 1914 or winter 1914
1945.
This changed view of the war outlook
is due in important part to an altered
conception of what the airplane can
accomplish.
officials in this country and in Great
Britain accepted with little question the
claim that airpower could be decisive
in modern war. Air forces were given
everything that they asked for. Inva-
sion of Europe was delayed to give full
demonstration of the effectiveness Of
bombing. The theory of airpoWer as
decisive factor was very convincing, but
the practice seems not quite to have
matched the theory.
The theory was that bombing could
| destroy the military production Of q
nation such as Germany. However, the
fact seems to be that, despite large scale
| bombing, German war production Is not
more than 10 or 20 per cent below Its
peak. The British report that the Ger
mans actually are adding to the size Of
| their defensive air force.
Another theory was that bombing
| could obliterate German communica-
| ton lines, especially IN an area of the
type Of Italy where few railroad lines,
| operating over exposed bridges and
through many tunnels must be de-
pended upon. Bombing was counted
| upon to isolate German forces below
the Brenner Pass. The fact is that
the Germans have added to, and have
supplied, their forces in Italy despite
the bombs.
A third theory was that a modern
army cannot fight effectively without
air cover. Yet the Germans in Italy,
/ with next to no air support, have held
out at least five months longer than
they were expected to hold out
The most widely accepted theory is
that bombing can destroy the will Of
civilian populations to resist and can
/ produce surrender of major nation
without the necessity for defeating its
/ armies. This theory was tried out by
the Germans with their bombing OF
London. 1t did not work The same
theory now has been tried over Ger
many on vast scale. Yet it appears
not to be working. There is some evi-
dence that air attack, in fact, tends to
harden the attitude of the civilian
population and to increase the will to
resist rather than otherwise
All Of this is not to say that the air.
plane is war weapon of only ordinary
Importance The airplane probably is
the dominant weapon in this war. It's
role IN the Pacific war perhaps is of
greater Importance than its role in the
European war. An invasion of Europe
would be next to impossible without
dominance in the air. The point, how
ever, is that the extravagant claims
made so often and accepted so widely
concerning what aircraft can do appear
not to be proving out in actual practice.
Theory and practice are not quite the
same.
The result is that surface navies and
ground armies are going to be required
to win this war just as they have been
required to win other wars.
1t now seems very improbable that
Germany will surrender Internationally
prior to a military defeat which the
armies OF this country, Great Britain
and Russia inf1ict. The scene of that
decisive defeat is more likely to be in
the west than in the east The reason
Is that the Russian ability to wage an
offensive OF decisive Importance dimin-
lshes as her armies move west. There
Is no evidence that the German retreat
| to date has involved sacrifice of large
numbers of troops or great amounts Of
materiel
This means that the largest and most
mighty trained army in American his
| tory, supported by the greatest air force
In the world, probably will be called
upon to deliver the knockout blow of
the German war. This army will be
heavily augmented by the British Army
and air force. 1t will depend for success
on the ability of the Russians to keen
a major portion of the German Army
pinned down in the east.
Things would have been much simnIer
II Germany had collapsed and if air.
power alone would win the war. OIL