The Wilmington morning star., 1944-10-16
Realistic About Japan
By NEAL STANFORD

Lie dIlcVlIdUluty VI Japan QSledL IS one
| thing. The inminence of Japanese surrender
| is quite another. The armed services are
| UNDERSTANDABLE pleased with the progress Of
the war in the Central Pacific. It is known
| to be months ahead of schedule. But the
United States government is obviously wor-
ried over the publics assumption that sucn
progress points to the end in matter Of
months Such an attitude Is years ahead Of
schedule.
| While it cannot be said that Japan has
not yet begun to fight, it can be said that
| japan has not yet put its all into the fight
1t still increase its capacity to produce
| weapons Of war, but not 100 per cent in the
war.
The United States, for example, has pro-
duced miracles of war production 1t has
outproduced the rest of the world. But il
| is still devoting only about one half of it's
productive effort to war activity. With The
f.other half it continues civilian production.
| Spare parts continue to be made for cars
so that transportation won't break down
Bobby pins continue to be made for women
war workers so that morale won't fall down.
The United States could obviously in a
crisis devote more of its effort to turning
out war goods than it does. So can Japan
Japan has resources within easy reach
that have not yet been exploited. 1t can use
substitute materials and dip into stockpiles
not yet utilized. It has plant equipment that
could considerably increase the production
Of planes, tanks, trucks, guns.
How is this so?
| Japan ~ver the past five years has ex-
pended both manpower and materials in eX
| panding its industrial plant
| 1t has built up stockpiles which can now
be drawn on: enough aluminium to last six
to IS months, enough copper for year and
five months, enough chromite for a year,
| enough manganese for two years, enough
mercury for two years, enough molybdenum
for one year. Its supply of aviation gasoline
is estimated as large enough to last a year
or more. And, it is said to have enough rub
Der for five years and tin for eight.
Japan's weakness in ability to expand war
production does not lie so much in the avail
ability OF raw materials, officials here be-
lieve. as its restricted ability to expand steel
production. Its conquests since Pearl Harbor
have opened raw material sources but have
not increased steel-makng capacity.
Japan's steel capacity is estimated to be
| in the neighborhood of 1900 900 tons of
steel ingots and castings a year. In contrast,
United States capacity is 100000 tons.
Japan's steel industry, however, cannot be
starved out by Allied conquests in the Cen
trail and South Pacific Over 100000 tons
Of the ore Japan uses comes from Korea,
Manchuria and China. Only by cutting off
such supplles-or damaging the plants by
| bombing-can Japan's steel industry be
harmed AS for her scrap pile it is believed
| to be quite adequate-thanks to prewar
American generosity.
| In manpower, Japan's available work
force for war production is somewhat re-
| stricted in comparison to the teeming mil
lions in the huge areas conquered. 1t has
not proved possible to draft such labor in
any large quantity.
| War industry, it must be remembered, Is
concentrated In Japan proper, in Korea, or
| in Manchuria. Labor for the war effort comes
almost completely from these areas.
| There u.s. then, the nlanpoWer. But it lacks
| the mobility, as well as aplllty, OF American
| labor to become proficient in war work
| Evidence OF pinch In the manpoWer stu
alton appears in the recent edict that re-
ouires ali males between IL and 60 to regis
| ter with the labor exchange for mobili-
| 7stion Unmarried women between the ages
of 70 and 40 must also register. The closing
| of most of the schools and universities is
| another indication.
Isnan official sources here agree, can still
,,11 in its belt notch or two, can still step
~, ~ war production 10 or 20 per cent, can
st;u find the manpower to produce this in.
crease. can still live off its fat, so to speak
| tic stockpiles-for some time.
| This is not mear> to be pessimstic in
+ernretation of tn japanese situation, but
ra+ber q realistic one. We are known to be
| months ahead of schedule IN the war in the
pacif;c Only by realizing Japans staying
,o,,er car we get some idea Of how near
- how far-the, end to that war is. From all
s-a;1ab1e official sources, that end should
| a cured in wears rather than months -
/ $500