The Wilmington morning star., 1944-10-30
Election Betting Odds
BY ARTHUR BROCK

BY ARTHUR BROCK
WASHINGTON.-One of the anomalies O.
this anomalous Presidential campaign is thu
disparity between test-polls, headquarters re
ports and press surveys on the one hand ane
the betting odds on the other. To national
state and local arrangements of both party
candidates, to directors Of the polls and to the
newspapers there is steady flow of report.
which add up to the forecast Of very close
contest. But the story of the betting odds is
that the Presidents election tor a fourth term
is complete certainty.
Rowing representatives of the press have
never been so cautious in their attempts tc
assay in advance how the key states will 60
Also, many Of them have said that almost in
variably the expressed confidence of local
campaign managers in the victory of their side
fades on cross-examination. Except for the
latest estimate Of Elmo Roper-that the Presi
dent has a per cent advantage among civil
ian voters-most polls are nip and tuck.
Nevertheless the betting odds against Mr..
Dewey have reached to l and those who
book them seem to have considerable sums
to back up their judgment or information
This information, by the way if it be SUCH
is based on a private gamblers poll, and
it has often been proved by the result.
Those who run campaigns for candidates
pay very serious attention to the betting odds
and for two reasons. One is, as noted before
that they have frequently anticipated the out
come. The other is that this fact is well
known, and politicians believe, attracts to the
forecast winner many votes which would 9th
erwise be against him. These votes, they
think are cast by citizens who like to be on
the victorious side for numerous reasons, some
of them material.
aof% Oft if1Y1n NJ
ticians toward the betting odds large sums are
sometimes raised to bring them down. This
is considered one Of the most effective uses OF
money in q campaign, well worth the risk OF
loss because of the effect it may have on the
psychology of the voters. Only today in Wash
ington the opinion was heard that it, by this
means, or because of change in information
coming to the odds-makers, the betting be-
fore election day goes down to to l on the
President his prospects will be adversely at
fected; ard if they 60 to to 5, he will lose
This is the more sordid side of politics, but
it is well-established And this correspondent
is iii position to give assurance that the sub
ject of the odds has engaged the attention Of
some of the most important figures in the
campaign and has been discussed in the in
teresteL hearing of even more important ones
Gambling is illegal in,many places in this
country, but election betting occurs every
where just the same. Though more strait
laced authorities refuse to make the dis
tinction, a good case can be made for the
contention that this kind of betting is wager
ing, not gambling, since elections not 8
game OF chance and the money is posted by
the principals in each case on information OF
belief, or BOTH At any rate, it is familiar
AND persistent feature in all electoral contests
in this country, and the odds are published ir
maiy newspapers.
MI. Roosevelt, as has been said is the bene
ficiary of these odds to the degree that they
ere influential on votes, and this has beer
true ever since the nominations were made
Thus far the odds have not been affected by
all the surface evidences that they do no
represent the true prospect.
For example, by all private and public re
ports-except those that may be in the gam
blers poli''-the key states of New York
Pennsylvania, Missouri, Massachusetts ane
Michigan are listed as very close. 1t the Presi
dent should lose New York and Pennsylvania
or New York Missouri and either Michigan OF
NASSAU husetts, few of the so-called experts
would be able to make a winning tabulatior
for him. This is not because no other conbi
nation is possible that would give him the
266 electoral votes necessary to a choice. L
is because experience and American politica
history teach that the loss Of such states by
the White House incumbent would be part o.
trend that would engull otneTS ne could no
afford to lose. Thus far, however, the odds
ignore these listings by the several varietie.
Of pulse-takers In some books New York has
been rated as 2 to l for Mr.. Roosevelt ILL.
nois has recently been ruled even Though the
Republicans have been claiming it with wha
apea~s to be real confidence), and some are
willing to wager on Pennsylvania at better
ing odds from Mr. Roosevelts standoint
If the professional makers Of odds are right
then almost every other analyst is wrong
not in dsputng the outcome so much as ir
the nearly solid front they have made for 6
close election which still might 60 either way
Not since 1885, when the great majority Of
| prophets were convinced that the President