Evening star., 1944-11-19
Germon State Future
Problem Tor Bio Three
Writer See, Great Dih,ul,ie, IN
10th Hard and SOFT Peace
Nv omen Scott

N''''NI 'hlIihlll hnd StallF are
confronted with dilemma as they ,et
out now 10 decide eNar' " what 20 90
with a defeated Germany.
II Germany H. reduced 90 the status
OF a nation Of small farmers. with mucE
of her industry moved 10 France BEL
GUM and Holland. with her territory
divided. there may be created an over
sized Austria in the center of Europe.
Austria was the fostering sore that did
so much TO give Europe its economic
and political troubles after the last war
Yet, If Germany is permitted to re-
build her industry. if she is left with
80.0O0,000 people within her borders
when France has only 44,OOO 900, if she
is helped to get back on her feet, then
the base is laid for a new venture aimed
at giving the Germans control of Europe.
United States and Britain did much
after the last war to strengthen Ger
man industry and to help the Ger
mans prepare for World War H.
The decision concerning Germanys
future, now taking shape, is more in the
direction of the first than the second
alternative.
Mr.. Roosevelt, speaking for this coun-
try, favors harsh peace for the Ger
mans. He is prepared to go almost as
far as the plan of Henry Morgenthau
suggested This plan calls for rather ex-
tensiVe whiting away of German ter
ritory and for rebuilding of much Ger
man heavy industry near coal on the
French side of the border rather than
near the coal of the Ruhr. Germany, un-
der this plan, would end up with about
100000 or so 100000 people and an in
dustry centered more in making con-
sumner goods than in making machinery
and other heavy products usable in
war.
Mr.. Churchill, speaking for Britain
lncllneS toward a harsh peace too. The
British. however, are somewhat more
divided. One important element is not
convinced that the British will maintain
grudge long enough to do the policing
Of Germany over long period that will
| be required if drastic measures are
taken. There is concern, too, over the
economic health Of a Europe in which
an Impoverished Germany lies at the
center Britain is heavily dependent
upon prosperous Europe to provide her
with market and with banking oppor-
tunitieS
Mr.. Stain, for Russia. is definitely on
the side OF very harsh peace, despite
reports 10 the contrary. The Russian
Premier is concerned above all else with
the prospect that Germany might be
permitted to become strong again and
TO try for revenge. MI Stain Is ready
TO go along with any plan that would
weaken Germany and give more time TO
Russia to regain strength before there
Is chance for another German try for
power. The Russians want large repa-
rations from Germany. but if furnishing
/ those reparatlonS in the form of goods
would tend TO strengthen German heavy
| industry, the Russians would prefer to
forego reparations in part TO keep Ger
man industry weak
There already is essential agreement
between Roosevelt, Churchill and Stain
I on whittled-down Germany.
Poland and Russia are TO get slices
OF German East Prussia II is proposed
that Poland take a rather broad slice
! OF GermanyS eastern territory back 10
| the Oder River, but the Poles appear not
| 10 be oyeranXlous TO take this territory
II the German population goes along
with 1t. Yet, to move the millions of
! German residents back into what would
be left OF Germany would only add to
the problems of any government set up
there. This is a point that the big
three must settle.
France would like TO have. either As
protectorate or for direct annexation.
a broad belt of territory back 10 the
Rhine River. This would take from
/ Germany most of its iron ore and much
/ OF It's coal. The industrial Ruhr area is
east OF the Rhine, but the proposal is
that industries of this area should be
| reoulIt IN an area under French or
Belgian control. Belgium wants a slice
OF German territory and Holland may
want some territory to take the place of
any farm land that German flooding de-
stroyed. Denmark is supposed to get
back portion of Schlesweig- -Holstein.
III Stlll is an open question whether
| the state in Southern Germany should
De swung away from Prussia and united
with Austria to form a new state.
Even If no further territorial division
Is attempted than that involved in whit
ting Germany down around the edges.
the state that would remain would be
very weak and Impoverished affair.
1here Is grave doubt whether a Ger
many of, that kind could operate very
much above the subsistence level. As
result, there would be needed a very
broad economic reorganization in Eu-
rope of kind that may be difficult to
| carry out.
Some aStute British authorities point
out that Germany of the kind now on
vlsloned would be forced to offer itself
to the highest bidder in a search for AL
lies and probably would be serious
trouble spot in the center of Europe
The one hope for a Germany Of that
KIND would be to stir up trouble and to
nope to capitalize on that trouble by
Offering fine material for an army.
All this suggests that the: problems
that Roosevelt, Churchill and Stain
now face are not as simple as they NAV
appear to be. They must try to work
out basis for settlement in Europe
hat ,1-t11