Evening star., 1944-03-26
Japan Fights
for Time
BIZ John II. Cline.

6y JOHH II. CHUe.
Premier Gen. Hideki TOTO warned his
people last week that Japan has reached
the most critical stage in the history
OF the empire" Appealing for redoubled
effort in land where labor and sacrifice
have long been the rule, this once ar
rogantly confident leader laid great en-
phasis on the imperative need for in
creasing the nations military power
without "even one seconds delay"
The precise reasons underlying this
urgent message and similar exhortations
| preceding 1t are, of course, unknown to
| us. Needless to say, there is no mys-
| terry concerning some of the more self
| evident causes of Tojo's concern. The
| Japanese have long since discovered that
war with "decadent" democracies is not
the profitable and exciting adventure
that their leaders promised them in
the early days of easy victories. The
| military commanders must have seen
the handwriting on the wall at Midway,
although it is not likely that the Japa-
nese people understood either the mag
nltude or the significance of that defeat.
1t has not been possible, however, to
keep them in ignorance of more recent
reverses The decisive defeats in the
Southwest Pacific, the loss of the Gill
berts and the Marshalls the assaults
on Truk and the Marianas, the relent-
less advance of American power in the
north-al of these have been portents
OF coming disaster which could not be
entirely concealed and which, in wisdom,
ought not to be concealed. For in even
SO we'll disciplined country as Japan
diet composed of promises of rich and
painless conqueSts is not conducive to
the maximum civilian contribution to
long, hard war.
Hence, it is a fair inference that
Tojos plain talk was inspired in part
by the military damage which has al
ready been done to Japan and which
she will have to endure in the future.
But it is also probable that Japan's
Premier. faced with the certainty of a
long war, is beginning to break the
news to the japanese people that they
Will soon be confronted with a critical
denclency In the raw materials of mod
ern conflict. In time Japan may be able
TO make good her material shortages
by exploiting the conquered areas that
are still under her control But in
order to do this she must somehow
bridge over the uncertain immediate
future, and some aspects of the problem
which this involves are discussed in
an article by H. Foster Balm in the
current issue of Foreign Affairs.
Mr.. Balm served as adviser on mines
TO the Philippine government, and was
1nterned in Manila when the Japanese
invaded the islands He returned to this
country in December on the Gripsholm,
and his comments on Japan's material
resources are those of an outstanding
mining engineer with a rich BACKGROUND
OF experience in the Far East
1t is Mr.. Bain's belief that Japans
early military moves were brilliantly
executed, but he feels that in important
respects the Japanese fell short Of salts
Tying their ambition to make good some
OF their material deficiencies.
Although her native resources are
Sharply limited, Japan began this war
with substantial petroleum reserves
which had been stored up during the
peacetlme years. They have obtained
some important petroleum products from
Borneo and Sumatra, but Mr.. Balm be-
heves that it is extremely unlikely that
they have profted much as yet from
their capture of the main East Indian
Oil fields, which were pretty well de-
stroyed when the invasion began. He
believes that the time of exhaustion of
Japan's stored supply may be near, but
this cannot be said with any certainty.
Conquest has provided surplus of tin
and rubber and there is no shortage of
chromlte or manganese Nickel and
other rare alloy metals are scarce and
must be used sparingly but Mr.. Balm
does not believe that Japan is faced with
serious difficulty in the supply of these
items or of aluminium.
Japan also has abundant supplies of
coal and probably has been able to in
crease her steel supply materially since
the war began. From the Japanese
viewpoint, however, the steel outlook
can hardly be encouraging. Japan be-
gan the war with steel-producing Co.
pacity believed to be about 1900
tons year, and her wartime program
called for total annual output of TO-
00O,OOO tons. 1t is not considered likely
that she has reached this goal, even
though it is negligible compared to pro-
duction in the United States The Japa-
nese steel industry has been almost
wholly dependent on imports of scrap.
pig and iron ore. She began the war
with large stockpiles, but military de-
mands must have cut heavily into these,
and Japans shipping shortage undoubt-
edly has made replacement difficult. In
another important war material cate
gory-that of copper-Japan is believed
to be having trouble Prior to the war
her annual domestic production was
about 10000 tons. Since then she has
been able to push this up to about 1OO,-
600 tons, and energetic salvage and new
production campaigns are under way.
Nevertheless, the probability remains
that Japan must deal with a critical
copper shortage.
Mr.. Balm warns however that the
troubles Japan may be having in these
respects are temporary in character.
Given opportunity to exploit the re-
sources of the areas which will remain
under her control for some time to come,
and, through diligent propaganda Of