Evening star., 1944-11-23
Vast Supply Problem
Seen in Far East War
Shifting of Allied Power to Take
Six Months, Says Observer
By David Laurence


Tremendous quantities of shipping
and supplies will be needed in the Far
Eastern war. 1t will take at least six
months for Allied military power to
be shifted from Europe to Asia.
So the time of the ending OF the
European war has distinct bearing
on the handling of Pacific problems.
Military opinion here inclines to the
flrm belief that the war with Japan
Will not be over before the end of 1916.
This is six months longer than the
estimates that were being made this
autumn, when 1t was confidently be-
heved the European war would end in
december, 1914, and that 18 months
thereafter at the outside Japan would
be conquered.
But 1t is apparent now that our
strategy In tackling the Philippines
first instead of Formosa has lengthened
the war. look at the map will con-
vince anybody who studies the oues-
ton that we are still 1900 miles from
Japan even when we capture Luzon.
Fighter planes from British bases have
had round-trip range of a little more
than 1000 miles. Allied air power must
nave bases much closer to Japan than
the Philippines to be able to protect
troops invading Japan.
Prestige Standpoint
One school of thought here has al
ways believed that by tackling For
mosa and certain japanese islands
first, the Philippines could be by
passed altogether and then a mopping-
up operation could later be undertaken.
But because the recapture of the
Philippines was deemed important from
a prestige standpoint, especially in i'm
pressing the Asiatics with the fact that
japanese possession was only temporary,
the United States decided to 20 to the
Philippines first.
One OF the disadvantages of going TO
the Philippines first is that our feet
must now be occupied for long time
With protecting lines of communication
to Gen. MacArthurs ever-increasing
forces
This means that until we have ac-
qulred firm hold on Luzon and jap
anese sea power has been seriously cur
tailed the chances of offensive operations
by our Navy closer to Japan itself are
reduced.
To put it another way, the capture of
Formosa and island bases to the north
might have struck death blow at JAP
anese air power, which now Is pouring
down steadily by the island hopping
method from Formosa bases to the
Philippines.
Time Element Affected.
The end result, of course, will be the
same because the Japanese will face the
Army Air Forces soon to be operating
out of newly won fields on Leyte. But
the time element has been affected and
that Is why it now is conceded that the
Philippine operation lengthens the
schedule Of the war against the Jap
anese
There is a possibility that Japan-if
decisively beaten in the Philippines and
especially on the island of Luzon where
major battles involving hundreds of
thousands of troops may be fought-will
consider the end to have come. 1t is
being suggested by those who know the
japanese psychology that when beaten
in the Philipplnes-an event which will
probably not be consummated until
after the end of the war in Europe
Tokyo may decide to surrender uncon-
ditionally.
This theory is based on the belief
that the japanese will try to protect
their homeland from air bombardment.
Discussion of the theory has not af-
fected the military viewpoint here,
which is that the war against Japan
will be hard and long and that the end
of 1916 is the earliest time we may hope
| for the ena to come through strictly
military operations
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