Evening star., 1944-04-09
That Pessimisnl
Explained
By ODen L. Scott.


A chance still exists that invasion Of
Europe from the west, when it comes.
will result in defeat for Germany by
fall OF this year. That chance, however.
Is referred to less and less often by
those who are running the war.
The present official tendency toward
pessimism probably is being overdone.
In part, that tendency is related to q
desire to keep the public's mind from
wandering away from the fact of war.
In part, too, 1t Is based upon a desire
to avoid overconfidence in commanders
and troops who will have to do the dr.
feating of Germany. If. by chance,
there should be setback, the shocS
will be less If the preinvasion attitude
Is pessimistic. Z
In looking ahead, however, some wett.
informed military officials are willISs
to stress the factors that follow:
First of all, barely one-third of Ger.
manys military strength, If that muck,
can be concentrated in the west of KF-
rope. If invasion should come fro4,
several directions, as 1t could, the Gar,
man forces would have to be dispersed
from one end Of Western Europe to tie
other. The way then could be opensd
to decisive actions. (
Next, Russian armies are unlikely Id
give the German armies In the east ss1y
opportunity to relax. The German tes
treat from Russia may be according tss
plan. Even SO, the margin betweef.
successful retreat and disaster Is thi2,
1t is entirely possible that Germad,
may be cut of from the one-third IL
her oil supply that she obtains fretn
the Ploesti fields in Rumania. An i,s.-
portant source of food is threatened,
The result is that the German bRh
command cannot afford to weaken Its
eastern armies to build up thosef In
the west. 4
Finally, the United States is atoylt
ready to throw in an overwhelming
power.
This country has been at work siracs
June, 1910, preparing to fight q war.
1t has produced prodigious quantity
OF munitions Of every variety. 1t has
built an Army of about 7,500,OOO ren
and OF that number nearly 5,00D,sO0
will be overseas by midyear. The power
OF this Army has not yet been brought
to bear at any point. In North Africa
the forces involved were relatively small.
In Italy, very few American divisions
and only modest amount of munitions
have been used.
Invasion will reveal for the first time
the full power that Is packed by the
new American Army.
Far more men and vastly more veap-
ons will be poured into Europe than
the Germans can marshal in opposi ton.
German dependency Is placed upon
fixed defenses, upon prepared lines that
can be manned by relatively few men
and then can be backed up by mobile
reserves. Their difhculty is thas the
coasts to be guarded are too long to
permit of fixed defenses at all possible
points Of invasion. If air power can
play any decisive role in war It should
be able, when used tactically, 20 slow
or prevent German concentration Of
strength at any one place.
Once the blow falls the result can be
that rapid and decisive events will
ensue. Much will depend upon the Ger
man strategy. If the German Army
elected to defend most everything in
the west, it might find itself In trouble
quickly with probability Of q decision
by fall. If, on the other hand, ti,s Ger
man Army follows the strategy sised in
Russia and sacrifices territory 10 save
Its army and to gain time, fate war
might drag out, but it would have the
same ending, later.
The dominant military view n that 1t
is doubtful if the German penple will
go through another winter of var. even
II their armies do save themseJ YES from
disaster by retreat and wholesale de-
structlon OF territory abandoned. This
view, however, is not being stressed pub
licly at the moment.
Pessimism with regard to he war in
Europe is likened to that Enich pre-
vailed with regard to the s.ar in the
Pacific until a short time ago.
Things looked bad in the Pacific for
long time. The japanese Empire an
peared to be vast and strong. Japan
mad time to build fixed defetlses. Gains
by our side often were limited to a few
yards IN dense jungles There vas eyery
sign that the road to Toxic would have
10 be island by island, in war lasting
years.
All the while, however, the NAVY was
building its strength. When finally the
Navy struck, the whole character of the
Pacific war changed. Japan's empire
now had a papier-mache appearance.
Whole groups of islands WNre grabbed
at time. Our Navy roan5ed much of
the Pacific almost at will: The public
now began to talk about az, end to the
Japanese war before the! end of the
German war.
There is good chance that the ex-
perlence in the Pacific will be repeated.
IN new version, when ir.vasion comes
In Europe.
The new American Army has been
building its strength. Aboat 500 o00.-
100000 has been spent to make this a
good Army. 1t is more lavslly equipped
with weapons than any other army In
the world. 1t has everything.
When this Army now strikes in Eu-
rope, just as when the Nsvy struck in
the Pacific, the results can quickly
transform today's official ressimism into
optimism. There can be AN indication
OF whether war in Eurots will end in