Evening star., 1944-08-03
War Situation "
To 10-Yord G1
Relaxation Of Outpu
BY O6cials, Says O.

Relaxation of Outpd
BY OAicials, Says o.
By David LaursscI
Army and Navy o6hcials here ii
veloped desp-ssAted fear that th1
mistic nsws from abroad win cat
reclamation on the production 'front.'
Unqusstionably many peopls are 81
ginning 10 think IN terms Of reconyer-S
don Of war plants or transfers 10 other
Jobs. This n most unfortunate ct time
when the momentum Of production
should be increased rather than de
minhhed IT Is comparable to football
team which gets to the 1o-yard line and
then assumes 1t can put over touch
down with the same case that It has
marched down the field, when - q
matter Of fact, the defending team
usually puts up its greatest battle for
those last 10 yards.
There Is, Of course, no denying the
optimistic nature Of the news dispatches.
and when 20 important an oficial ~
Prime Minister Churchill tells the Ho,ss
Of Commons that the war may soon
come to IN end, It nquestionably has
Its repercussions on this side Of the
Atlantic because, after all, the Prime
Minister is In position to know what
u happening in Europe better than any.
body there.
But it will be noted that Mr.. Churchill
does not make an exact prediction. He
doesn't say that the war will end In 4
matter OF weeks or matter Of months.
Military men here think 1t Is q matter
Of months and that it can be six months
or nine months. depending upon the
kind Of last-ditch resistance the Nazis
put up.
Pressure for Production.
Meanwhile every bit Of pressure Is
being used to keep up the rate OF pro-
duction because increasing amounts Of
materials win now be needed a. the
invasion forces spread out In France.
Perhaps +he most diticult prediction OF
all to make Is as to the interval between
the collapse Of Germany and the sur.
render Of Japan. On this, too, Mr..
Churchill Is optimistic but he merely
says the interval viii probably be shorter
than he had previously believed. Inas-
much ~ no estimate Of the length Of
that particular interval has ever been
made by high oflcials, 1t could, of course,
mean that instead Of . three year inter-
val there would be only . one-year In.
terval.
So far rs our own officials familiar
with the Pacific are concerned, they do
not believe the Japanese war win bs
ended II months after the German war.
There are some naval ofIicers, for ex.
ample, who confidently believe that vs
will be lighting Japan in 1915 and 1o47.
This Is on the assumption that the jap
anese will not crack rs the Germans may
and that . fanatical defense may be
expected.
The one hope Of shortening the war
against Japan Is that the Russians may
throw their strength ON our side after
the German war Is ended. But the
Russians, on the other hand, have m
immense transport problem In order
to supply . fighting army in Manchuria
and China. Likewise, it win be necessary
for considerable air strength to be built
up in Siberia.
1t would appear that if the German
war comes to an end some time In the
latter part Of 1914, the fun strength Of
the Russian and American air forces
might be available some time In the
middle Of 1945 and 1t Is conceivable
that . climax In the Japanese-Ameri-
can war could come before the end OF
1913 or at the latest In the early part
of 1916.
Nibbling ut the Edges.
Optimism with respect to the Japa.
nese-American war is not shared BY
naval men, because they point out that
at the present moment the United
States is just nibblins on the edges Of
the japanese Empire. The Marianas
Islands. for instance, are $500 miles
from Japan, and while some important
airbases have been acquired, the naval
anchorages are not adequate to support
our fleet. It will be necessary for some
supplies Of fuel can be stored.
It is simple enough to state that
Super Fortress can fly from Guam or
Saipan, but in order to sustain any con-
siderable number Of bombing planes .
large ground force with repair shops
and other installations Is necessary and
there just isn't the space In the Mari
anas Islands for all the things that are
needed to make such an air operation
successful Likewise, = 3,o00-mile- long
trip Is still too long from the military
viewpoint as compared to . raid from
bases 500 or 600 miles away, q has
been the case between Britain and
Germany.
1t may be expected the japanese will
intensity their operations In China 20
as to prevent the acquisition OF bases
there and that In the not-far-distant
future they will use their land-based
planes In considerable numbers to ward
on invasions on the Philippines or For
mosa. There is hard fighting ahead in
the Pacific and the assumption that .
short interval win elapse after the Ger
man war Is over before the japanese
surrender is predicated on the theory
that japanese morale viii crack some
thing that military men here do not
think Is likely.
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