Evening star., 1944-10-01
Protest Vote Might
Give Dewey Victory
But Roosevelt, Writer Finds,
Is Now Ahead.
By Owen L. Scott.

front as his campaign for fourth term
enters the home stretch. To win, Gov.
Tom Dewey will need to make solid
sweep Of the big Eastern States.
With five weeks to 60, the lineup
appears to be about like this:
The Middle West may go solidly for
Dewey. If the breaks go his way from
now on, he can find 129 of the 266 elec-
toral votes needed to win in the big and
| small States OF the farm belt.
The solid South remains solidly for
| Roosevelt, assuring him 103 votes as a
nest egg with which to start. All of the
! preconvention talk of revolt in the
South from a fourth term now has
evaporated.
Border States are divided, with Mary
land, Tennessee, Kentucky and West
virginia. tending definitely toward
Roosevelt to add 80 votes to those he
needs, while Missouri and Oklahoma
with Is votes are fighting ground on
which Dewey has chance.
On the Pacific Coast, Roosevelt stands
a good chance of getting all of the 80
votes, although Dewey might possibly
pick up 6 votes in Oregon.
| The real battle is to be for the 122
votes of the big States in the East. There
are At votes in New York, IS in Penn
sylvania, l6 each in Massachusetts and
New Jersey and in Connecticut that
both sides will strive for The decision
is likely to rest upon the way these
States go.
Roosevelt will come 10 the East with
clear margin unless all signs are
wrong. He can lose New York State
and even New York and Pennsylvania
If he gets the breaks in border States
or II one big State in the Middle West
should slip away from Dewey.
Dewey, however, almost certainly must
carry New York and Pennsylvania plus
either New Jersey or Massachusetts to
win. He starts with the handicap of
having no solid bloc of votes to CORE
spond with those in the South on Mr.,
Roosevelts side. The result is that IL he
loses either New York or PENNSYLVANIA
the Jig probably is up. His problem
would be very complicated if, by chance,
ne should lose Michigan or Ohio or Illi-
nois
1t Is that statistical situation that
gives the White House group a feeling
OF confidence in the outcome. The one
fear they appear to have is that the
november vote may be very small, with
men in service not voting and MANY
workers not registered in their new
places of residence. The President is
told. however, that he probably can hold
a margin If more than al 900 900 votes
are cast. with 100000 the normal
number to expect. The whole Demo-
cratic campaign revolves around an
EFFORT to get out the vote, because a big
vote means that workers are going to
+ the polls, and it is among wage earners
tnat the Presidents strength is greatest.
Inc Dewey campaign is geared TO the
task OF corraling all elements of the
Nations protest vote. 1t rests upon the
conclusion that after IL years any ad-
ministration ofends or at least loses the
support OF great number of voters.
The problem is to find formula that
Will permit all of the disgruntled groups
totcoalesce and provide majority, Gov.
Dewey is performing that task skillfully.
but 1t remains to be seen whether the
Tact OF continuing war will upset a
strategy of that kind
To date, this much appears to be
clear: ,A,
| Small-town voters continue to be yerv
strongly opposed to the present admin
lstration. Farmers in the past four wears
nave shifted strongly away from Rooss-
velt
The President has lost important
strength among wage earners in the
past four years, particularly among the
unorganized workers who are In the
majority. Yet he retains his hold on tine
Wage-earner group by substantial
margin and this support is the back
bone of his present strength.
Men in service are not likely tn be
a decisive voting factor, either for or
against the President. The reason is
that under the best of circumstances not
more than 100000 will vote and this
vote will be sprinkled evenly over the
whole Nation so that it probably will
not be major factor in any State.
Business and professional groups con-
tinue to be Overwhelmingly opposed to
the Roosevelt candidacy.
1t always has been true in recent years
that If American wage earners and
Whlte-collar workers vote and If their
vote is, preponderantly for one candi-
date. that candidate is likely to win.
Farmers now make up little more than
one-quarter of the population so that
their voting strength, proportionatly, is
not so great as 1t once was. The real
voting strength is In labor, organized
and unorganized.
The President based two campaigns
for reelection upon knowledge of that
fact and is doing the same in a third,
The fact that he does hold an edge in
polls of public opinion shows that the
Roosevelt strategy still readily may be
q winning one.
Mr.. Dewey has five weeks IN which to
overcome any lead that the President
may have at this stage Nis lob Is cut
out for him in the East, wnere the
decisive bloc of votes is to be found.
furnish ice cream and oyster pie dinner
on Sundays for 15c ard Charles Schnei-
| der the hakor A12 81 ,v,,,,1s