Evening star., 1944-08-27
Pacific War Is Seen
As industrial Cushion
Writer Says "Consternation"
Might Follow End.
BIZ Otuen L. Scott.

By Otoen L. Scott.
War with Japan Is scheduled TO
serve as the shock absorber. for the
kickback that win come with the end
Of war with Germany. AL Official plan
ming for demobilization, the start Of
which may be nearer than many people
realize, is related to that fact.
II both wars should end at the
same time, the United States would
find itself faced with q problem Of
demobilizing about $4,000 900 persons
from industry and from military serv-
ice. There would be a public clamor
to get men out Of the Army and Navy
IN hurry. No reason would exist
to continue to turn out immense quan.
titles Of war materials. Unemploy.
ment quickly could become a problem
Of staggering proportions.
A search fails to disclose that any
high oficials are excited about de-
mobilization. There is lack Of urgency
OF the kind that would be expected in
light of the prospect that the German
war might blow up before many weeks
or months have passed. little In
quiry discloses that the Japanese war
accounts for the rather detached ON
cial attitude toward the problem Of
demobilization.
The intent, obviously, is to demobilize
In slow motion. The one remaining
war will offer the basis for that type
OF mobilization This means that
about 250,000 men will be released from
military service each month after the
German war, with the public assured
that faster demobilization Is not DOS
sible In the light of needs in the
Pacific. War industry will cut back
Its output gradually with production
likely to be down about one-third a few
months after the German war ends.
New war orders will continue to flow
Into industry, assuring against any sud.
den collapse.
In this period, too, price controls
can be taken of gradually. Rationins
Will end step by STEP There will con-
tlnue to be q draft of 17-year.olds
becoming 18. The War Production
Board will be able gradually to ease
up on Its controls over materials. per.
mitting civilian industry to expand in
an orderly way. Taxes can continue
at their wartime level. With one war
under way, the public will not become
excited about the steady rise In the
public debt. Nobody will be able to
say whether the continued pilins up Of
war materials Is or Is not necessary to
bring about defeat Of Japan.
1t Is that situation that accounts
for official complacency on the sub
ject Of demobilization.
The result is that If, by chance .Janan
should surrender not long after Ger
many surrenders, the attendant OH.
cial confusion and CONSERVATION would
ne great. Some people are suggesting
that II the japanese really wanted to
create trouble for this country thew
could get maximum results by calling
Tor peace at the same time AZ thu
Germans.
AS matter Of fact, there Is be-
ginning to be some questioning among
omclal planners concerning the need
Tor the United States to devote two.
thirds as much effort to the war against
Japan alone as 1t now devotes to fipht.
Ing two wars and to providing lease.
lend on q large scale to Britain and
Russia. There is hint that the Japa-
nese war Is 10 be used as a much
greater shock absorber than purely
military requirements would necessi.
tate.
At present the United States has ,
Navy that is about i've times the size
OF the Japanese Navy and stronger than
that comparatively because of its more
modern complexion. When the German
war ends. that whole Navy can be con.
centrated in the Pacific. To 1t will be
added British Navy that probably l.
one and one-haf times the size of ths
japanese Navy.
This country has an air force many
times the size and effectiveness of the
Japanese air force. The British haye
an air force to add to the American
Then there are the merchant marines
OF the two nations which can be di.
verted to the Japanese war along with
the immense number Of landing craft
now In the Atlantic and Mediterranean,
Vast quantities Of artillery and small
arms and ammunition, feodstuf1s and
other material is going to be on hand
for diversion to the Pacific.
On top OF that, the war industry Of
both the United States and Great
Britain Is supposed to go on grindina
out weapons and equipment at a rate
two-thirds Of that at the peak of the
two wars in order to bring about Ja-
pans defeat. Some question is begin
ming to be raised by war planners con-
cerning where all Of this equipment and
material Is to be placed for effective use
The point Is that military considera-
tions will be only one Of the considera-
tions that govern when the German war
ends. A second consideration will be
that of demobilization, with Govern
ment officials viewing the war with Ja-
pan as convenient means for assuring
q slow demobilization. That second
consideration accounts in part for the
fact that official estimates now place
the amount of surplus war materials to
be on hand after this war, in the United
States alone, as $l03, 1000, 900. 900.
Even with demobilization in two
steps, this country Is to face an acute
problem after the Japanese war. Mil
lions of workers and veterans still will
need to be placed in jobs. Industry
then will face the need to convert fully