Evening star., 1944-02-06
Postwar + Planners
Face Big Job
By OWen L. Scott.

.
By OtDen L. Scott.
Industry In this country is showing
such amazing ability to produce goods
that 1t is beginning to cause official
worry The White House group charged
with the task OF planning industry's
rehabilitation from war work and its
shift back to peacetime production
already is awed by some Of the problems
involved.
Nobody had realized the productive
possibilities in American industry until
those possibilities were tested by mobili-
zation for war. That mobilization now
Is near completion. It has taken little
more than three years, two of them war
years when all Of the brakes on produc-
ton were taken off. In those years the
results have been phenomenal.
The record shows this:
An Army Of 100000 men has been
built from scratch and lavishly equipped.
No other Army in the world can match
the firepower Of this new Army. It's
weapons are in such abundance that
many types Of production are having
to be cut back. A military air force of
1890 900 men likewise has been created
and provided with planes of a quality
and in quantity that no other nation
or nations can match.
A Navy of 3,000,0 900 men, with warships
in profusion and with large and pow
erful air force has been created in those
same years. More than 100000 tons
of merchant ships have been built. In
addition, American industry and agri-
culture have provided $4,000, ,000,0 900
| worth of goods for lease-lend.
At the same time, civilian industry
has been turning out record volume
of many types of goods and services.
The American people, as whole, are
better fed than ever before. Upper in
come classes are eating less but lower
income classes are eating more. People
are better clothed than ever in history.
Industry, while pouring out an ava
lanche Of goods for war also has man
aged to keep civilians supplied with
almost everything except new cars, new
electrical equipment and new homes OF
an expensive type.
1t is in this situation that the problem
of the future lies. 1t Is the situation
that is starting to cause the official
worry.
The reason for this worry is that
American industry, during war, has
shown that it can produce goods at
rate two and one-half times as high as
IA vne prewar period 1t has made this
production record at time when TO-
900 900 of its best workers have been
taken away and placed in military
service. It's efficiency has grown by
leaps and bounds in the war period.
So great is war production that, even
with continuing wars in two oceans, 1t
will be necessary within six months TO
begin to cut back some types Of war
production rather sharply.
The problem then will begin to be to
find jobs for men who leave war plants.
This problem will grow to large propor-
tions soon after the German war ends
1t will reach very large proportions
service. Then 1t will be necessary not
only to find jobs for men who are leav-
ing war industry but for millions Of men
who have been in military service.
To date, official consideration Of this
problem largely has been confined to
worry over it. The problem is to so ex-
pand outlets for civilian goods Of all
kinds that work can be found for at
least 10000 900 persons who will be de-
{,,H, pA
military service.
Part OF this problem will be solved by
Withdrawals from the labor market by
women, by young people who normally
would go to school and by older persons.
It is expected that between 1000 900 and
5000, 900 present workers will prefer not
to seek work after the war. Then the
construction industry will absorb large
number and the automobile and other
consumer durable goods industries will
take others. These industries, however,
may not employ as many persons in
peacetime as they employ filling war
orders in wartime.
The most optimistic OF official esti-
mates suggests that there will be about
5000, 900 persons in the United States
during the postwar prosperity period who
will be seeking work but unable to find
work. In this period the people generally
will be enjoying an unprecedented VOL
ume Of consumer goods and services.
They will be buying cars, refrigerators
and other things and building homes at
a rate above any time in the past. Ex-
port trade will break peacetime records.
However, the amazing ability to pro-
duce that American industry is showing
in wartime is expected to complicate the
situation in peacetime. The demands
that are pent up as result OF wartime
shortages in some types Of goods can be
met in relatively few years. Once
those accumulated demands are filled,
the Nation will face the problem OF find
ing a formula that will assure level
Of industrial activity that can provide
work for all, or nearly all persons who
want to work.
The official White House planners,
who now include businessmen and finan-
ciers for the most part, are not at all
sure that they can find formula. They
appear to hope that a combination OF
the right tax policies, foreign loan poli-'
cies, price policies and investment poll
cies will assure industry OF markets that
can occupy its productive ability to the
full and thereby provide jobs for all.