The Ypsilanti daily press. (Ypsilanti, Mich.) 1928-1962, 1944-07-14
BY Roger w. Babson

Babson Park, Mass, July IA =
Business volume has been main
tanned at such a high level since
Pearl Harbor that II is hard for
some to realize that there can be
any slowing up. However, the past
six months witnessed the begin
ming OF the end of our current war
boom. AS we enter the third quar-
ter the trend will continue down
ward. From this point on bust
ness will have TO adjust itself to
quite different conditions: with a
general resumption of more norm
al activities.
The Stock Market
During the past six months
stock market averages Of 30 indus
trials and 20 rails have risen from
S6.04 in January to 92.69 in June.
This is a rise OF IL per cent All
things considered. the market has
acted we'll during the first half OF
the year. Our taxes on capital
gains and the double taxation on
corporate dividends continue to
be distinct drawbacks. London
investors have no capital gains tax
to contend with. Hence, the
prices of English stocks are out
pacing U. S. securities.
/ have been bullish on stocks
during the past six months and
now continue so. The coming
third quarter is especially apt to
show a rise in view OF the presi-
Dental campaign. II may seem
odd for me TO forecast a decline in
the volume Of business and at the
same time to expect rise in Sc.
curity prices; but the relief which
investors are experiencing over
the wars progress together with
the constructive oratory OF Dewey,
Bricker and other Republicans Is
being reflected in the stock mar
ket.
Wages
In spite OF controls. wages have
risen a little more during the past
six months. Union leaders have
worked hard for pay increases and
will continue to do so in order TO
hold their own jobs. However, the
heyday OF the industrial worker is
rapidly passing. Production cut
backs are resulting in the laying
of OF thousands of workers. This
has gone relatively unnoticed as
such layoffs have occurred in wide
ly separated geographical areas.
Too many wage workers have not
saved a fair proportion of them
wartime earnings. They are bound
later to feel the economic effects
thereof. Many OF the latter will
lose their jobs between now and
the end of the war. They will
find 1t hard to get new ones. l
anticipate that the average demo-
hillzed service man will not only
find his old job waiting but IL he
wishes he will be financially able
to enter business on his own ac-
count. When rehabilitation comes,
soldiers and sailors may be in bet
ter financial shape than are the
wage workers who remained home.
Retail Trade
Retail trade has steadily gone
ahead during the first six months
Of the year. Wartime wages have
been the. deciding factor in spite Of
the scarcity OF goods, price con-
trolls and luxury taxes. Merchants
have done a wonderful job in keep
ing their shelves stocked to the
extent that they have. More goods
will become available as we enter
the third quarter, but both the
volume OF retail business and the
value OF goods sold may decline to
somewhat lower levels. am not
sure about this.
With retail trade at an all-time
peak. but with a general drop ex-
pected in employment; with higher
costs and lower profit margins and
with a generally more cautio"s
spending tendency. a reaction In