The Hardin tribune-herald. [volume] (Hardin, Mont.) 1925-1973, 1944-12-28
ROGER BABS0N'S AUTHENTIC FORECAST
PREDICTS NAzI COLLAPSE THIS SPRING

THIS SPRING
Also States Japs viii
Fall Sooner Thon Most
People Now Predict
THUMBNAIL OUTLOOK
FOR 1945
Look for these develop
ments: Farmers cash in
come will approximate that
of 1914, which was $50 bill
ions. Both bituminous and
anthracite mining vii run
so below a year ago. Pet
r0leum output will be upped
so. Iron and steel will de-
cline 1919. A similar drop is
in prospect for chemical
manufactures. Lumber out
put will increase so. The
paper and shoe industries
will run along ON the same
levels as during 1914. In
dustrial employment will be
10 less and factory payrolls
will decline 1919. Greatest
single expansion will come
in at the construction and
building group, which will
show an increase of $50
from the low levels of 1944's
first six months. Look for
a sharp drop in retail trade,
especially in luxury items.
Electric power output will be
reduced so as war contracts
are cut back. For basically
the same reason railroad
freight ton mileage fill fall
1870.
GENERAL BUSINESS
/. A year ago the United
States BabSonchart Index of
the Physical Volume of Business
registered 1885; today it reg
listers 1873, justifying my fore
cast of a year ago. The Cam
adam Babsonchart Index of the
Physical Volume of Business
registered 206.9 a year ago; to-
day it registers 1877. 1915 will
show a reduction of more than
1919 both in United States and
Canadian business. Furthermore,
most of the following comments
apply to both countries.
2. War production is already
being cut back and this reduc-
ton will rapidly continue
Through 1945. Even those. rail
roads and industries which ex-
pect to benefit from a long war
with Japan will be disappointed.
3. The re-conversion of in
dustry from war to peace bust
ness will increase during every
month of 1945. Furthermore,
time required for re-conversion
will not be as great as most
people believe.
4. Inventories quoted at their
price values, rather than VOL
umeS, will continue as a whole,
during 1915 about as during
1914. Raw material piles will be
larger, but manufactured goods
will be smaller.
5. Population increases in the
United States during 1945 will
he about 100000, but the birth
of new babies will fall off some
what.
RETAIL COMMODITY PRICES
G.. Rationfng will continue
through the most of 1945. Dur
ing the early part of the year
I expect to see further reStric-
tions especially in connection
with meats, canned goods, etc.
Z. The retail prices of most
necessities and some luxuries
will be higher during 1945 than
at present. The prices of. some
of the luxuries, such as furs,
have already collapsed.
8. Steel prices of goods needed
Tor peacetim e manufacture
should be a little higher, but
prices of heavy war goods will
decline. This applies also to the
heavy chemicals.
9. The wholesale prices of raw
materials in general may decline
during 1945, but most consumer
goods will hold firm or sell at
higher prices. For both gasoline
and bituminouS coal, there may
be price concessions.
10. The great question mark
of 1945 will be how, to whom
and at what price the govern
ment will dispose of it's billions
of dollars worth of uneeded
supplies.
FARM OUTLOOK
mi