Detroit evening times. (Detroit, Mich) 1921-1958, 1944-09-24

contradict each other, maybe Ia
help the cause Of realism.
The great majority Of the politi-
cal representations that are fly
ing through the air are worth ex-
actly what they have always
proved to be worth in past cleo
tons: Nothing. Most of them are
born of campaign strategy or
wishful thinking, OF both. They
are designed to influence public
thinking by suggesting TO the
voter that a bandwagon is roll
ing and he ought TO get on 1t.
Even the impartial polls fall to
keep pace with changing trends oil
political sympathies, and by the
time they're published, the true
situation may be completely
changed, from what IL was when
they were taken.
CLAIMS UNSUPPORTED
There is nothing anywhere in
the established facts of the cur
rent election picture, TO support
claims from either side, that the
election is in the bag. In fact, SIM
pie arithmetic shows just the OPP
posite; that based on past cleo
ton performances, and apparent
developments OF the moment, the
/ 1914 election is lettering in very
precariouS balance. and Is the
closest election this nation has
known for many a decade.
The figures presented herewith
are not conclusive, nor do they
tell who is going 10 win. But
they do have substance and sig
nifcance and they're not pre-
sented with any ulterior purpose.
]. PICK WINNERS
To begin with, there are an
even dozen states, that have had
systematically reliable -recnrd
Of always voting on the winning
side in every presidential election.
Maryland has never been wrong
since 1898: Ohio since 1892; Wash
ttngton since 1896; Missouri, Mon
tana and Idaho since 1900. There
are others that have missed only
tonce. in the extremely close war
election year OF 1916, when Wilson
won reelection, even though
Hughes got larger popular vote.
Except for that occasion, New
York has had perfect voting
record since 1876, Minnesota and
Illinois since 1884, West Virginia
since 1888.
New Hampshire only miss
since 1892 was when 1t went for
Hoover against Roosevelt by a
marrow margin in 1882, and North
Dakota has been right since 1888
Except when IL went for Willkie
! by a slim margin in 1910.
BARoMETRIC STATES
Therefore, what happens in
those states this time would seem
10 be an important barometric
indication.
Remember. 100. that Wendell
Willkie polled q million votes in
1910. against u million for Roose-
welt. That's a plurality Of only
million votes, and if you SUBJ
tract from that the heavy plurali-
ties the Democratic south gave
10 the President, il leaves an
extremely narrow margin 10 be
spread over these barometer and
other states, where change may
have occurred in the meantime.
Getting down to the arithmetic.
/ take New York.
That state gave its AZ electoral
votes 10 Roosevelt in 1910, by a
margin of only $4,000 out of six
and a quarter million. That means
that change Of heart by only Is
out OF every thousand voters in
this election will swing II 10
Dewey.
BOTH CITE ILLINOIS
Or take Illinois, which both the
Republicans and the Democrats
are claiming. The balance is even
more delicate there. Roosevelt
carried the state in 1910 by only
100000 votes in more than 4,000,-
900. A shift Of only II votes out
Of every thousand, this time. will
carry il for Dewey.
Or Minnesota. Roosevelt barely
carried IL in 1910, and a change