Evening star., 1944-11-26
Looms Abroad Planned
In Aid Of Employment
Writer Sees Another New Deal
Coming in Two Years
By Owe7, L. Scott.


By Owen L. Scott.
Mr.. Roosevelt Is planning nothing
very radical for the first year Of his.
fourth term. This first year is to be one
N which the Presidents primary OBJ
tective will be to end the wars and to
induce Congress to accept membership
Tor the United States In new world or
ganizations.
An effort will be made at frst to
avoid controversy on domestic issues
During all or most Of 1945 attention will
center instead upon issues Of foreign
policy. The question of whether or not
the United States will accept member
ship In the proposed United Nations,
and upon what basis, will be fought out
IN the Senate. Both houses Of Congress
viii face the question of United States
membership in an international cur
rency stabilization fund and in a world
investment bank There will be agree
ments to arrive at upon aviation policy.
OIL policy, commodity prices.
The President will not want to COM
plicate these issues with a demand on
Congress to rush through plans for an
other domestic New Deal. To do so
would be to give opponents of world CO.
peration an opportunity to divert at
tention from the main issue that will
determine whether this country is to
base that future on a series of agree
ments with other nations.
*&
1t is not going to be possible, however
to avoid issues of economic policy at
nome FOR many months after the wars
end. The reason is that large-scale un-
employment will appear within a few
months after the German war ends
even with the Japanese war going on.
After the Japanese war ends. unemploy--
ment soon will be back as a major M
litical problem.
Mr.. Roosevelt has promised the Ma
ton -.At he will provide 10000 900.
jobs. Some of the Presidents advisers
think that he will be lucky if he finds
INDUSTRY, trade, agriculture and Gov
ernment providing many more than
50OO0,0 900 jobs after the war. These ad-
visers see the prospect of UNEMPLOYMENT
OF between 100000 and 10000. 900 even
while those who are working in postwar
Positions are enjoying prosperity.
This means that President Roosevelt
probably will find it necessary at some
time in l946 to start trying to deliver on
MS Job promise. 1t Is then that the
New Deal phase Of the fourth term will
make its appearance. This next New.
Deal, In the opinion of those who will
have much to say about it, will look verv
much like its predecessors except for one
phase.
The difference between the coming
fourth-term New Deal and the others
WILL lie IN its emphasis upon foreign
loans as a means of creating Jobs at
home. This country would provide dol
lars for world reconstruction and de-
velopment with those dollars expected to
be spent largely in the United States
The goal will be to provide an outlet
for between 5000 900 900 and $4,000
100000 year in loans to other nations
There is some question, however. wheth-
er foreign borrowers can be found for
oouars IN this volume even if Congress
provides the dollars and the machinery
Tor making loans on that scale. The
British are wary. of borrowing unless
assured OF market in this country for
British goods large enough to permit
repayment. The Russians take the same
attitude and so do the French. GERMANY
and Japan will not be good credit risks
Inc result Is that sound foreign lending
may be somewhat restricted.
II foreign lending does not click on
the scale now envisioned. then there
Will be recourse to all of the familiar
devices of the past.
Old-age insurance will be expanded
and hberalized There will be pressure
Tor naturalization of unemployment in
surance with more liberal benefits.
Pump priming will come back in all of
It's old forms and some new ones There
Will be much emphasis on very large
programs OF low-cost housing. The pre-
war, spend-lend bill will come back to
Life, with its emphasis upon Govern
ment financing Of so-called lf-lioui-
dating projects like hospitals, toll roads,
Toll bridges, railroad improvement, rural
electri1cation and other ventures.
Congress will be under great pressure
to force at least so per cent increase
In the level of minimum wages. II is
entirely probable that in this period, II
unemployment is large, public demand
WILL grow for Government operation of
war plants on a production-f -for-use
basis. Harry Hopkins at one time was
a strong advocate of Government op-
GRAFTON of idle factories and his inf1,,-
ence remains great. Tax policies again
VIII tend to emphasize redistribution Of
income.
1t is true that Congress at present is
quite cool to all ideas of this kind. This
coolness, however, is shown at a time of
very great prosperity and of full en-
ployment. 1t remains to be seen how
conservative Congress will be when war
plants are shut down all over the cor,n-
try and when large unemployment re-
appears. The public in many areas will
be aware Of the fact that war factories
are standing idle at time when men
are IDLE, too, and when there is a great
surplus of machinery and Of materials,
Members of Congress who now take a
conservative line suddenly may find
themselves under great pressure to alter
that line.
The New Deal phase Of the fourth
term, however. probably will not reap
pear until about the middle of 1e46.