The Wilmington morning star., 1944-12-12
Business Outlook In 1915

Virtually all minds are giving much thought
to the business situation in 1945 The nation,
all states and most counties and cities are
mapping programs for the resumption of peace
time trade and development Farmers in all
categories are anxiously watching the signs
of the times with the hope OF scheduling &C.
tivities and investments to their personal ad-
vantage.
The first over all picture of anticipated
conditions to reach this desk comes from Unit
ed Business Service of Boston. This firms pre-
dictions, conservative though they be- are usu-
ally close to the facts. What it says about the
outlook for 1915 should prove interesting to
everybody. We offer a summary Of its fore
casts
BUSINESS VOLUME-Will probably be 12-15
per cent smaller than in 1914. Activity will
remain at high level until We Day. then de-
cline sharply as war contracts are cut back
Expanding civilian output should check the
downtzend by fall and may bring moderate
unt,rn late in 1945. Controls will be eased,
hut not ended. after Germany folds. Food ra-
tioning should largely end in the second half.
Gas rations will be iberalized, but a return
to unlimited motoring is unlikely next year.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - Full year
1945 OUTPUT will probably fall 1920 per cent
below 1914 War production, now roughly two
thirds of the total, will be cut to less than
so per cent by the end Of 1945 Civilian output
may increase Is per cent next year. Produc-
ton con rolls will be relaxed promptly after
We Day
LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT - Wage n
salary controls will be eased, but not ended,
in 1945 Hiring curbs, however, will be re-
moved quickly after We Day. Hourly rates
will be boosted to offset loss of overtime pay
Labor troubles will probably increase next
year over issues of higher wage rates, senior
ity questions, annual pay, and downgrading
and transfer of workers. Unemployment may
reach three to four million by the end of
l945
PRICES-Will show great divergency next
year. Controls will be continued. Finished
goods will tend higher in reflection of higher
unit labor costs, but many industrial raw ma
terials and farm commodities will weaken aft
prices are expected to decline around 3-5 per
cent during 1945 Living cos:s will hold 1ela-
lively stable.
RETAIL TRADE-Total 1945 dollar volume
Sales of consumer durables will gain-will be
limited solely by available supplies However,
this will not be enough to offset the effects
If reduced incomes (due to transition layoffs)
on soft GOODS demand Qualify will improve
as the year progresses. Sales will be spotty-
very good in some localities, but off sharply
n those hit by contract cutbacks.
AUTOMOBILES war ends by spring, first
lew cars should be turned out next summer.
However, parts shortages will impede produc-
lion, and no more than million are
likely to be produced next year Prices
Will average 10 Is per cent above prewar.
Rationing will be continued throughout 1945.
NEUTRALITY-SUSPICIOUS. will be eased after
We Day-but there will be no boom in 1945.
Activity will be retarded for some time by
lumber shortages, high costs, and general
uncertainties. Full year construc-
ton may exceed 1914 volume by IS per cent
but this would still be the lowest Except in
ls44) since 1885. Best gains will be in the resi-
Dental field.
CORPORATE EARNINGS-Willp probably run
l0-l5 per cent under 1914 despite cushionng
effects of excess profits tax positions Divi-
dends will also be smaller
STOCK AND BONDS - Stocks will show
widely diverse movements. Huge funds will be
a sustaining influence. Some market decline
is likely in early stages of reconverson fol-
lowed by recovery later in the year. High
grade bonds will hold firm next year-money
rates will remain low.
What A Guy!