Browning chief. [volume] (Browning, Mont.) 1941-1953, 1944-12-01

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value was less important. The show
ing of copper exports was approx
! mately reversed, with the absolute
decline far more weighty than the
relative decline vis-a-vis total eX-
ports. Both copper and oil products
show a moderate trend reversal
since 1878.
World Trade Necessary.
AS the situation is now shaping
up, expansion of world trade is es-
sential for prosperous postwar
agriculture. We shall need expanded
foreign outlets as well as retention
of war-expanded home consumption
If our farmers are to have markets
for their productive capacity. The
difficulty will be to find these mar
kets abroad. If we fall short of
putting to use all that the farmer
can produce the prospects for agri-
culture, and indeed our whole econ
omy, are greatly circumscribed.
There has been much reliance in
the recent past on postwar relief
needs abroad to enable us to dispose
of our SURPRISES and maintain, at
least for some years, high level
of agricultural production and ex-
ports. Estimates of such needs, how
ever, are now being considerably
scaled down and in some quarters
it is questioned whether relief needs
will be great enough to absorb even
the food inventories the government
expects to have at the end of the
war. Indications are that agricul-
ture in most parts of Europe has
survived the war in good shape
What with the strong impetus that
war has given to the trend towards
self sufficiency, many European
countries, except those always
heavily dependent on imports. will
soon be able to fill their own food
requirements. Thus it is feared
that SURPRISES will again plague
most food exporting countries soon
after the war ends. Two years after
cessation of hostilities, it is esti-
mated that we in the U. S. will
almost certainly again be faced with
the chrenic agricultural SURPRISES of
the preWar era. Realizing this, fed
eral agencies are getting ready for
a pitched battle against postwar
gluts; paradoxically, federal poll
cy has fathered these prospective
SURPRISES and our declining chapces.
Take cotton which is bound to face
intensified competition in postwar
world markets and additionally
must cope, increasingly, with syn
thetic fbcrs. PreWar exports aver
aged about five million bales an
nually, principally to Britain, the
European continent and Japan.
Wartime exports were reduced to
about is million bales a year,
mainly lend-lease to Britain and ex-
port sales to Canada. Today our
cotton carry-over amounts to some
10.5 million bales with a new large
crop coming up. While the wartime
loss in exports has been offset by
sharply increased home consump-
ton (around II million bales a
year,, mostly for war purposes,
there is little prospect of maintain
ing such high level after the war.
The most that is expected of domes-
tic requirements is about seven mil
lion bales while exports may ac-
count for less than two million bales,
starting us right off again with siz-
able annual surpluses topping the
heavy carry-over.
Our Prices Too High.
1t is obvious that we shall be un-
able to compete in world markets at
anything like present prices: to
compete at all will require the aid
of heavy subsidies which in turn
would draw reprisals from other
cotton producing countries and in
evitably lead to more restrictive
trade barriers. Besides, this meth
cd, freely used in prcwar years,
runs counter to our avowed desire
for greater freedom of trade On
the other hand, we are not inclined
to give up our parity program and
and other price bolstering meas
ures at home. In fact, judging
from latest indications, the South
appears bent on setting the stage
| for a repetition of the economic
tragedy of the 1905 by demanding
that the government again intervene
to help the cotton planter hold a
world market commodity at price
that the world is not willing and
not compelled to pay
The mid-western wheat farmer
finds himself in a similar predica-
ment; he faces dwindling export
markets and eventual necessity for
drastic acreage reduction. Wheat
production this year is expected to
exceed one billion bushels compared
with average 1859 output of 759
million bushels. The worlds four
major wheat producing countries.
U.S.A., Argentina, Australia and
Canada at the end of July had a
total wheat supply of three billion
bushels, consisting of a one billion
bushels carry-over and production
of around two billion bushels. Esti-
mated domestic needs of these four
countries are about IA billion BUSH