Evening star., 1944-09-03
Defeat Of japan Seen
Soon After Germany

0'SSs VI S0POu SSSU
| Soon After Germany
Writer Believes Nipponese viii
| Surrender By End of 1915
By Open L. Scott.
End Of war in Europe il to bring great
pressure for speedup and early end to
the war against Japan. The aim will be
to force japanese surrender not longer
than II months after the German de-
feat.
Until Japan surrenders, the United
States will be unable to demobilize more
than partially. There still will be more
than 3,000,000 men In the Navy and
Marine Corps. About 5000, 900 men will
remain in the Army and Air Forces one
year after the German war ends unless
by that time there Is an end to the
japanese war as we'll
Many Of these men will have been In
service for three years or more. They
and the country will want to get war
over with, 80 that they can come home.
At the same time, industry will be in
creasingly impatient of wartime restric-
tions. many Of which must continue
until the end Of the Japanese war.
Labor will be restive under control of
wages. Salaried workers will want an
end to controls that deny them in.
creases except in special cases. Indus
try will tire Of rationing of some ma
terials, but rationing will have to con-
tinue. Price controls will become in
creasingly irritating.
| Part Of industry will continue to be
tied up with war orders after the Ger
man @efeat, while another part will be
freed to turn back to civilian goods
production. This fact will lead to many
problems and to further pressures to
finish the war.
There Is every reason to expect that
defeat Of Japan can be brought about
within IL months after defeat Of Ger
many. II that turns out to be the case,
the irritations and difficulties of that
war probably will be less dificult to bear
than would the shock of sudden de-
mobilization from both wars, should the
end Of both come at the same time.
| -
Japan will find herself alone, in q
highly exposed position, with this coun-
try and Great Britain able to devote
the full attention of their naval and air
forces to the problem of breaking Japa-
nese power. The British probably will
get the task of eliminating the Japa-
nese from the Malay and French Indo-
China area and maybe from the Dutch
East Indies, while the United States
Will concentrate upon Japan herself and
upon the Philippines. II the Russians
should decide to settle old scores, they
could hit Japan from behind and speed
the ending.
| American forces in the Marianas
Islands are In very strategic position
now, able to strike either at Japan her
self or at the Philippines.
Those islands offer adequate bases for
long-range aircraft that one day soon
can start regular bombing attack upon
Japanese cities and industries. They
also afford supply bases for American
naval task forces. There is nothing
to prevent those forces from striking
so close to Japan itself that the Japa- =
nese Navy will be forced to come out
and hight If It does come out, as It
must If 1t is not to be immobilized
then this country's naval and air
strength Is such as to assure defeat, and
probably destruction, for Japans Navy,
Once the Japanese Navy has been re-
moved As an irritation, the cities of
Japan will lie exposed. Those cities
and the industries around which they
are built lie almost altogether on the
coast. They are excellent targets both
Tor carrier based aircraft and for bonn
oardment by l6-inch guns If Japan is
TO maintain her war-making ability.
she must keep open supply lines to the
South Pacific from which she draws
30 Per cent of her oil and to the Philip
pines and other areas from which she
draws iron ore and other minerals
That Is = hopeless task in the light Of
this country's naval strength.
The result of all of this is that
Japan Is moving toward the final stage
OF her resistance. That stage is the
one In which she is driven back into
her Islands, with tenuous contact with
her industry and her military forces in
Manchur1a and China. In that set.
ting, she Is unable to support the forces
required for modern war against a
power as great as the United States.
| -
1t is on that basis that the inside
view OF moderately short japanese
war now rests. Japan is too small And
weak to make prolonged stand aeainst
the forces that will be lined up to
force her early defeat. Part of those
forces, however, will have to be shifted
from Europe following German sur
render and that will take some time.
Naval forces, however, will be shifted
quickly. 1t will require more time tn
shit the Army Air Forces which re-
quire extensive preliminary prepara-
ton before they can operate at max
lmum efficiency. Many Army veterans
Will be shifted to help with the am.
phibious operations.
ohoer ordinary circumstances, the
prospect that Japan now faces prob.
ably would lead to surrender after +,
token resistance. The japanese. IT. is
admitted. have difficulty getting out Of
the war on any other than a basis If
complete defeat because they stand
70 lose the empire they have spent
~ years or more in building, along with
their navy and other military forces
The expectation however is that ~,