Evening star., 1944-11-06
Lawrence Forecasts !
Victory by Roosevelt
His Ratio of Doubt Formula
Is Based on Poll of Editors
By David Laurence

IL DaSe0 on roll OIL EQltOfS
By Dapid Laurence
This Is the eighth time In 80 years
that have endeayored to forecast a
presidential election Six times the
formula / have used proved right, but
in 1940 1t turned out to be wrong.
have always used what call the ratio
Of doubt" formula. 1t is an attempt to
establish convincingly which candidate
will cross the line of 266 and thus get
a majority of the Electoral College In
other words, it is basic minimum
rather than a maximum and in almost
every instance heretofore have stated
that was sure that the winning cam
didate would have substantially In ex-
cess of the minimum gave him.
My sources OF information have in
every case been many. In six campaigns
made a personal investigation and
Travelled through the pivotal States
talking with reliable sources-men Of
good political Judgment on both sides.
Four years ago / did not make such a
trip but relied upon a poll of more than
1000 editors. have done the same
thing this year.
1 have re-examined the editors poll
of four years ago and cannot determine
the basis for error, because the table
showed clearly that large number of
States leaned heavily to Willkie.
Same Type Of Poll.
I am, however, using the same type
off poll this year. 1t could be wrong
again. But it shows this difference
the editors this time seem far more
sure of their respective States going
particular way than they were four
years ago.
Checking through what I call the
sure States" for Roosevelt, find that,
with the Solid South of 127 votes con-
ceded, there are liz votes in States that
appear to the editors to be sure for
Roosevelt.
This gives total of 239 sure votes
for Roosevelt. 1t is necessary, therefore,
to find only q votes to assure a majority
in the Electoral College for Roosevelt.
I have scrutinized the table of States
which are doubtful and find group
OF 1913 electoral votes in States which
are shaky or doubtful for either side.
Based on information from various re-
liable sources in Pennsylvania includ-
ing editors in key cities. / have
picked Pennsylvania out of this group
as being the surest for Roosevelt. BY
adding Pennsylvania IS to the 239,
| give Mr.. Roosevelt 274.
To look at the table from the Dewey
| standpoint, on the other hand, 1 can
| find 257 votes sure for or leaning toward
the Republican nominee and he would.
OF course, win easily if he carried Penn
sylvania's IS in addition. But in that
group of 257 votes-outside of Pennsyl.
vania-I find Dewey's prospects not at
all sure but doubtful in Illinois, Min
nesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New
Jersey, New York, Ohio. Oregon, West
Virginia and Wyoming, or a total of l63
electoral votes. His sure votes are only
"a. 1t could conceivably happen that
Mr.. Dewey would not carry any of
these doubtful States, in which case
Mr.. Roosevelt would have a maximum
Of 437, while Mr.. Dewey,s minimum
would be "a.
Now looking at the weak spots In ths
274 minimum for Mr.. Roosevelt, there
are only 81 votes in which he is at all
shaky, namely, Massachusetts,, is; Okla
homa, 10, and Pennsylvania, IS.
Thus you have a shaky group of 81
on Mr.. Roosevelt's side and a shaky
group of 1853 on Mr.. Deweys side exclud-
ing Pennsylvania. The ratio of doubt"
favors Mr.. Roosevelt, and 1 am conf
dent he will be reelected for q fourth
term by not less than 274 and not more
than 437 electoral votes.
Table Of 81 States.
Here is a table of 81 States In which
I have given Dewey the benefit of