Evening star., 1944-04-02
japanese Setback

There is no reason to suppose that
the Moscow dispatches are guilty
of exaggeration when they describe
Japan's surrender of coal and oil
concessions in North Sakhalin Island
as a major diplomatic triumph for
the Soviets.
The japanese occupied Sakhalin
Island during the Russian civil war
and did not evacuate the northern
part, over which Russia retained
sovereignty, until 1925, when the
concessions were obtained. These
grants were to run until 1870, but
the Russians were never reconciled
to the arrangement and in the
spring of 1941, when the Russo-Jap
anese neutrality pact was being
negotiated, the Soviet government
asked that the concessions be liuui-
dated. When the neutrality pact
was signed in April, 1941, the JAP
anese agreed in writing to give up
the concessions within few months.
This promise was renewed in MAY
of that year, but when Germany at
tackled Russia a month later the
japanese conveniently forgot their
promise.
There was not much that the
Soviets could do about it at the time.
but with the changing fortunes of
war Japan's position has deteriorated
while that Of Russia has improved.
Hence, it is a fair assumption that
Premier Stain felt the time had
come to make the japanese live up
to their 1941 agreement, and that
presumably is what he has done.
While it seems evident enough
that this is major diplomatic vic
tory for the Russians, it is not clear
whether it will have any immediate
and tangible effects on our own war
against Japan. According to JAP
anese statements they have been
getting but little oil and coal from
Sakhalin in recent years, and if that
be the case the liquidation of the
concessions should not appreciably
affect their military position. In
the field of intangibles, however,
there may be greater significance.
For one thing, the tone of editorial
comment on the new agreement in
1zvestia, Russian government news
paper, is definitely not friendly to
Japan, and certainly is not optimistic
concerning the Japanese military
outlook. It also would seem that
the surrender of these concessions by
Japan, even though they may not be
OF hrst-rate military Importance, re-
fleets a mounting alarm-an aware
ness in high Japanese circles that
the war is going against them and
that they cannot afford to do any,
thing that might complicate the
well-nigh insuperable problems with
which they are faced.
1t is possibly worth noting that
in return for the liquidation of the
concessions at this time the Soviets
have agreed to deliver each year to
the japanese government $4,000 tons
OF oil for period of five consecutive
years after cessation of "the present
war" In another part of the Of
ficial announcement the Japanese
agree not to exploit certain fishing
rights along the eastern coast of
kamchatka until the end of "the
war in the Pacific" Thus. there
appears to be a distinction between
the present" war, in which Russia
Is involved, and the war in the Pa
cific, in which Russia is not involved.
II the war in Europe ends first Russia
presumably would be obliged to de-
liver oil to the japanese while we
are still at war with them. Even if
this proves to be the case, however,
1t should be remembered that the
$4,000 tons Of oil which Japan is
scheduled to get each year is but a
drop in the bucket-actually only
about enough to supply our own
military needs for a fraction of
one day