Evening star., 1944-01-23
Easing Controls
Expected in 1915
BIZ ODen L. Scott.

tioning and price controls is beginning
Government planners. This timetable
is closely related to the ending of the
war in Europe.
So long as both wars continue there
is almost no chance for an appreciable
easing in controls. This IS true even
may begin to appear, because the Army
and Navy want to take no chance with
possible premature shifts out of war
production. When the German war
ends, however, the start of a shift
back to peacetime basis of production
and trade will come rather quickly. The
war with Japan, although 1t may go on
for a long time after Germany sur
renders, will not require all of the Ma
tion's energy.
The present official assumption is
that the war in Europe will end by the
end of this year or, at the latest, before
spring, 1945. 1t is on that basis that the
present timetable for easing of con-
trolls is being drawn. But this timetable
holds out little prospect of material re-
lief for consumers this year.
End of food rationing y expected to
come gradually, starting before fall 1945.
Sugar probably will be first to be re-
leased from rationing. Canned goods
probably will be next, followed by meat
and then butter. Rationing of food,
however, is closely related to 1914 and
l945 crops in this country and in Europe.
Crop failures would delay the end of
rationing.
All kinds of clothing and textiles will
be abundant as soon as military de-
mands relax which they will do some
time this year. Shoe rationing should
end once ships become available to bring
in supplies of hides. That is likely to
be early in 1945, if not before.
Should the German war end by De-
cember, 1914 fuel Oil rations for the
1944-45 winter probably can be some
what larger than this winter. Much
the same will be true with gasoline ra-
tions The east probably will get larger
rations, while the West Coast will face
a probable tightening, because of de-
mands on it for oil to fight the war with
Japan.
Tires will continue to be scarce
through 1914 and, while they will be
more abundant in 1945, rationing is
likely to continue owing to the need for
balancing demand and supply. The first
Ha
mid-1945. Other consumer durables, such
as refrigerators. washing machines and
vacuum cleaners will begin to appear
late this year or early next year, if the
German war ends as scheduled.
There is much pressure now to ease
the restrictions that block any large
scale construction of new homes for
private use. Men and most materials
are becoming available for use in this
field, but it is unlikely that the bars will
be lifted to any important degree before
l945.
If the planners have their way, price
controls will be kept on many COM
modities and on many types Of con-
sumer goods until it is clear that a
squirt of demand, at the time that ra-
tioning is removed, will not send retail
prices spiraling upward The automo-
bile industry already expects that it
will have to charge from Is to 40 per
cent more for the first postwar cars
than it charged for prewar. That is
because wage and material costs are
higher. Postwar construction will start
out about Is per cent more costly than
prewar. If the lid is taken from prices,
the cost structure after the war might
get more out of line.
1t is probable, however, that to
II months of production after the Ger
man war ends may fill the more urgent
demand and permit an easing of price
controls even before the japanese war
ends Congress could end those con-
trolls earlier than that
Wage ceilings probably will begin to
be less important before the end of
1914. That is because unemployment
will begin to appear some time this
year. Salary controls will be continued
until the end of the war, if Congress
gives continued authority. 1t Is prob
able that good deal of labor trouble
lies ahead for the period when over
time pay ends and when weekly income
of workers falls precipitately as hours
of work are shortened. Unions can be
expected to try to push hourly wages
higher in order to compensate for what
is to be a loss of much time land -one-
half pay. The appearance of a labor
surplus will complicate their problems.
The draft for all but 17-year-olds be-
coming l8 probably will end shortly
after the German war ends. The Jap
anese war largely will be a naval and
air war It will not require an Army
of 100000 men. This means that the
Army can start to demobilize between
the end of the German and the end
of the japanese war.
Probable ending of one war many
months before the end of the other
war will give this country an opportun-
ity to work out adjustments in an
orderly fashion, utilizing wartime re-
strictions. This means that by the time
the Japanese war ends much of the
reconversion back to a peacetime basis
can have occurred. That conversion
must be undertaken because a vast
quantity of war material is being built
up in this period for use against Japan
when the time comes to enter the war
effort if that direction. Inventories of
planes, ships, food and everything else
will be of staggering proportions by