Evening star., 1944-11-03
Trend in Elections
Explained by Writer
Four.Point Percentage Change
Enough to Defeat Democrats
By David Laurence

Enough 10 Detedt democrats
By David Laurence
In order to understand the various
polls now being made to determine in
advance the outcome of the presidential
election. 1t is important to explain Just
what Is meant by the oft-repeated
reference to the trend"
Those who have studied and ana
lyzed election returns through many
decades have observed that, while Sec
tionalism occasionally plays . part in
determining the outcome Of an cleo
ton, there is definite trend nation
ally for or against the political party
in power, and this trend starts usually
from two to four years after one party's
success and sometimes reaches its
climax quickly, and on other occasions
takes good many years before it
reaches its peak.
The usual tip-of to a possible change
in the presidency has been the ap-
pearance OF definite trend against the
party in power as reflected in congress
sional elections. The trend, for instance,
against Wilson set in before the World
War ended, as he lost both houses of
Congress to the Republicans in 1918.
There was definite trend toward
the Republican party in the 20s which
reached its peak with the election of
Herbert Hoover in 1928, and then the
curve went downward with the heavy
loss OF Republican seats in the con-
gressional elections in 1880 and finally
with the election of Franklin o. Roose-
velt in 1882 Thus, the Republican trend
was reversed within period of four
years.
But in 1886 the trend toward the
Democratic party had not stopped grow
Ing, and Mr.. Roosevelt was able in his
hrst reelection campaign to win even
greater majorities than In his 1882
election.
First Sign in 1888.
Ihe flrst sign Of a trend away from
the Democratic administration came in
1883, when the Republicans made sub
stantial increases in their membership
IN Congress, While 1910 was regarded,
after the electoral votes were tabulated.
as a landslide for Mr.. Roosevelt, it
actually was close election in many
pivotal States and showed a downward
trend away from the Democratic party.
mat same trend was manifested in
the 1912 congressional elections when
tne Republicans again increased their
strength, and there are evidences that
the trend continued in 1943 and 1914
IN various State elections and in elec-
ions to fill vacancies in Congress.
significant way to evaluate the
trend" Is to list each of those States
which gave Mr.. Roosevelt 81 per cent
or less in 1910. Take, for instance.
Colorado which gave Mr Roosevelt 81 9
per cent OF its total vote in 1886, but in
1910 gave him only 48.7 per cent-a
drop OF more than Is points. A glance
at the percentage table shows that Mr..
Roosevelt, surprisingly enough, lost
points in every one of the Northern
| States with the exception of Maine.
Vermont and New Hampshire, and the
absence of loss in those three States is
oeneved to have been due to a counter
trend stimulated by whispering cam
| paign in the last few weeks, concerning
Mr.. Wilkes German extraction.
These losses of points on the Roose-
velt vote in all Northern States were
so considerable that If Mr.. Roosevelt
now loses only four points from his 1910
strength in States where he had 54
per cent of the total vote, he would lose
the election this year, whereas If he
retains his 1910 strength in the States
Where he had 81 per cent OF the total
vote or below, he would be elected.
81 Per Cent States.
Here is the list of the States which
In 1910 revealed 54 per cent or less of
their total vote for Mr.. Roosevelt: Wy
oming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas,
Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South
Dakota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri,
Indiana, Michigan, Ohio Pennsylvania
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts
Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont
and Maine.
This bloc of States would bring 3OS
electoral votes to Gov. Dewey. In other
words, trend away from the Demo-
Gratis OF only four points as against the
1910 percentages would assure the elec-
ton of Gov. Dewey.
II, however, So per cent Is taken as
the dividing line and all States below
that figure are carried by Gov. Dewey,
the Republicans would have only 245
electoral votes. In other words. prac-
tically all the States which showed 54
per cent or less for Mr.. Roosevelt in
1910 must be found in the Republican
electoral column this time for Mr..
Dewey to win.
The Gallup poll published last Mon
day morning indicated that such a trend
away from the 1910 vote had developed
in the surveys thus far made, but that
in number of States the trend has
not been sufficiently big as yet to be
decisive, because several States were
shown to be lowering on the $3.50
mark.
A detailed prediction on the outcome
based upon poll made by this writer
among more than 800 editors Is In
process and will be completed in time
for publication the day before the elec-
ton.
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Portrait Of q Young Man
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