Evening star., 1944-11-10
Editors Election Poll
Declared Borne Out
Writer Answers Many Que stions
On Pennsylvania Forecast
By D0pid Laurence

On Pennsylvania Forecast
By D0pid Laurence
Although many Of the editors of daily
newspapers supported Gov. Dewey, their
combined judgment In forecasting the
outcome of the election in their respec-
tive States was on the whole borne out
by the results.
Thus, this correspondent, in writing
last Saturday a prediction for Monday
publication after making a Nation
wide canvass OF editors In more than
1000 cities and towns, stated that the
Roosevelt minimum would be 274 and
his maximum would not 60 beyond 437.
1t Is significant that the editors who
furnished the information for this
canvass were absolutely sure that rs
States would go for Mr.. Roosevelt, max
ing q total of 239 electoral votes. It
then became necessary to select one
State with u or more electoral votes in
order to go across the majority line Of
266. Many readers have written to in
quire why Pennsylvania, with its 3s
votes. was selected by this writer out OF
all the doubtful States as the "surest
for Roosevelt"
Simplest One to Check.
The answer is that Pennsylvania was
the simplest one to check Although 81
editors In Pennsylvania picked that
State as sure or leaning for Mr.. Roose-
n,LN a.
sure or leaning toward Gov. Dewey, the
result was not to be found by a quan-
titative method. Experience has taught
that editors in key cities in large and
populous State are much more likely to
be able to estimate accurately the total
majorities than are the editors in the
smaller cities or towns. This is natural
because of proximity to the big city
organizations
1t was necessary, however, to check
on the situation in Philadelphia and
Pittsburgh, particularly because four
years ago Philadelphia had given Mr..
Roosevelt majority of 177,000 and Al
legheny County, which includes Pitts
burgh, had given him a majority of
about 100000, thus making a total of
$4,000 for Mr.. Observation-Disclosures to
bis majority in the whole State because
the districts outside of PHILADELPHIA and
Pittsburgh were about a standof.
Recalling how the pluralities had
SNAPPED up geographically in Pennsylva-
MIA counties in 1910, this writer checked
carefully by personal talks with reliable
persons in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
and found that the confidential esti-
mates OF the Democrats called for
10000 majority for Mr. Roosevelt in
Philadelphia and 115,00o in Allegheny
County, or total of 295 900. Several
scientifically conducted polls in the citv
OF Philadelphia also had revealed that
Mr.. Roosevelt's strength percentage
wise was not far different in 1914 than
1t was in 1910.
This writer, however, felt, after OBJ
tanning the Republican inside estimates
that 1t would be best to discount the
Democratic estimate by so per cent or
10000 votes. The votes in Pittsburgh
and Philadelphia turned out to be about
so per cent less than the Democrats
expected, and the Roosevelt majority in
Pennsylvania might well have been
around the 100000 mark II it were not
for the dropping of of the Democratic
strength in the smaller cities and towns.
which made the present majority about
1o'ooo. The soldier vote count may yet
increase the Democratic majority to
100000.
There was every evidence, therefore,
after careful checking Of. the Phila
delphia and Pittsburgh situations last
week, that Pennsylvania was sure for
Mr.. Roosevelt and, with its IS electoral
votes. minimum Of 274 for the Nation
was obtained.
Throughout Country.
1t was obvious, also from examination
OF the editors poll throughout the coun-
try that, while they were sure of Is
States for Mr.. Roosevelt, many of those
who appraised the situations in the
northern States outside Of PENNSYLVANIA
had their doubts about IL States with q
total of 1853 electoral votes and gave
Gov. Dewey minimum sure strength
OF only "a. There were indications that
nearly all of the 1853 votes could 90 to
Mr.. Roosevelt without causing any sur
prise to some Of the editors. Actually
that furnished the basis for the maxi
mum figure.
Latest reports at this writing give
Mr.. Roosevelt Alb votes but, even if the
fnal recheck in Michigan Should tip
that State in the Roosevelt column, it
would make 432 votes, so that the esti-
mate Of basic minimum of 274 for
Mr.. Roosevelt and maximum that
could not 60 beyond 437 was clearly
indicated by the way the editors an
swered the QUESTIONABLE in the last two
weeks of the campaign.
The editors, of course, are naturally
familiar with what is going on in their
localities and their reporters are in
touch with how the political leaders are
confidentially calculating the probable
results. 1t would seem, therefore, that
the combined judgment of the editors
OF the country, when evaluated in terms
OF their specific regions and areas, could
give more accurate appraisal of the
outcome of the national election than
almost any other method except public
opinion polls taken by large numbers OF
canvassers
Reproduction rishts reservsd)
Cereal News
From the st. Louis Post Dispatch.