Browning chief. [volume] (Browning, Mont.) 1941-1953, 1944-12-01
Foreign Markets for U. S. Agricultural Goods
Will Be Small After War, Economist Predicts

Altogether, an exportable surplus
of 800 million bushels will remain on
hand to supplement 1945 production.
Here again, our price support policy
will make it difficult to dispose of the
large SURPRISES which inevitably will
build up once urgent relief needs
are met. The latter, in view of the
trend towards self-suf1iciency in
foodstuff production of many ma
tons, may be far smaller then
generally assumed and compcti-
ton of low-cost producers may fur
Their limit our regular export out
lets.
A Farm Surplus Again.
In short, we shall have, not long
after the war, farm problem
rather than a food problem. Instead
of hungry mouths begging for food,
agricultural SURPRISES will go beg
ging for a market. In view of
this, agricultural economists are
greatly concerned about the govern
ment's pledge to maintain minimum
farm prices at 80 per cent of pari-
ty for at least two years after the
war, with its corollary of un-
diminished high production. Rather,
some experts estimate that we could
dispense with 100000 acres of
farm land after the war and still
meet all food demands even with
full production. 1t means that we
could easily shift million or two of
workers from agriculture to man.
ufacturing but actually, the postwar
trend is likely to be just the other
way, thereby further aggravating
the overall problem.
In wheat, too, hopes of regaining
or maintaining our export markets
rest on future cooperation of wheat
exporting nations within the frame
work of an international agreement;
such an agreement, in fact, already
exists but in the light of present
indications, its continued function
ing is not likely to reverse the
long-term down-trend of our wheat
exports. A more likely longer
range solution of the wheat farm
ers' dilemma is further crop
diversification, already under way,
and modification of our price sup
port policy together with continued
cost reduction through mechanical
ton. That such a course would en-
tail far-reachinG economic repercus-
sions, goes without saying, quite
apart from the polical considera-
tons that stand in the path of early
modification of the government S
price support policy.
Fortunately, at least for some
time to come, we can count on sub
stantial offsets. World demand for
our manufactured products, both
consumers durable goods and pro-
ducers goods but especially the lat
ter, promise to exceed anything so
far experienced if present tentative
indications hold good. While it
lasts, this should go far towards
balancing if not offsetting the eco
nomic consequences of our declin-
ing position in the export commodity
field; in point of dollar value, it
should more than compensate for
prospective losses in the latter
category. At the same time. it
should give us time for the economic
adjustments at home clearly called
for to bring about a better eco
nomic balance in the light of the
foreign trade pattern as it may
evolve in the future. In this task of
course we do not stand alone. 1t is
a universal must" without which
the world can have neither stability
nor prosperity for any length of
time