Detroit evening times. (Detroit, Mich) 1921-1958, 1944-12-30
BEHIND
The NEWS
BY Paul
MaIIon

WASHINGTON, Dee. %
w part IT'D the impending
eve of a New Year calls for
estimates of what it will bring.
1t is the custom, in the glow
of the holiday, TO cast the best
possible light on the future.
The superstition is that, true or
not, such light makes every
one feel better. But optimism
these days comes very near TO
being nonsense.
Only a fool would assume Tor
himself the pose of prophesy.
Yet there are certain matters
which are expected by authori-
ties who know most about the
subjects involved and a clear
understanding of these eXpecta-
tons is necessary TO intelligent
planning, and reading of the
news.
The coming year certainly
witt bring peace in Europe, or
at least an end of the war,
which will be called peace. No
one can foretell what the nature
Of the peace will be. 1t is
likely TO become a makeShift
arrangement evolving from
events continuance of the
temporizinG, compromising tao
tics evident in Italy, France,
Greece. the Balkans.
Political turbulence therefore
is to be expected in those coun-
tries. A settled situation will
be long coming.
MO ONE expects full victory
~ in the Pacific this year, al
though it could possibly come
from invasion and conquest of
Japan. This, however, would
not assure peace in Asia and the
restoration of settled condi-
ton there is certainly matter
OF years.
The general assumption here
is that the Pacific war VIII last
one TO three years longer.
Initiation or deflation? Prices
certainly will continue 10 edge
themselves upward, possibly
throughout the year. The pres
sure for increased prices is based
on the shortage of goods, and
there seems no possibility Of
relaxation of that pressure
within the next II months.
The government VIII do all IT
can. and TO a considerable eX-
tent should be able 10 avoid
the effects OF price rises, but II
can not dispel the pressure eff
fectively with any step short Of
release of abundance, and
that is a matter for 1916 or
later. Therefore, we must have
more initiation.
TIE business seerS have
Il changed their tune lately.
They are now again expecting
deflation as soon as the war in
Europe is over. ! can not see IT.
They are reasoning that con-
sumption will fall off on We
day, that widespread unemploy-
ment will develop, cash will be-
come tighter, prices will fall
I think they are premature
by al least a year and probably
two or three. Only the reStora-
ton of normal peacetime sup.
plies can bring deflation
a difficult labor situation I'M
queStionably is 10 be expected
upon the end in Europe. A
heavy wave of strikes is not al
all improbable. Union leaders
will fine il difficult to handle
their men in the face of rising
prices.
The government may Offset
this with leadership for a new
general wage increase. If il
does the effect will be further
inflationary and thus also work
toward the opposite of what the
prevailing deflationiSt econo-
mistS are expecting.
TIIERE will be some unem-
Il ployment, but the deferred
demand for employment is now
so greatly beyond any posi-
bility of satisfaction within the
year that I do not expect eco
nomic effects from II. Gener-
ally, any man who wants Job
should be able 10 find ii this
year
Furthermore. specific unem-
ployment should be temporary
a month or two at most and
the economic effects of il should
be fully Offset by the great
amount of savings accumulated
by the people their bond hold
iUCS which can be CaShcd, The
relief for dcmobilized soldiers,
etc
Delays will be encountered
in reconvcrSion. but the BUSH
ness will so 10 the swift. so
the natural controlling pressure
Will work for swift jobs. high