Evening star., 1944-10-12
BY ELMO ROPER.

unuAual contingencies WHICH lace
surveyors Of public opinion during
this unusual campaign. There is
still one more contingency which
must be faced by those of US who are
attempting to predict this election.
Suppose the soldier vote runs
true to form--whstever that is; sup
pose that part of the population
which has been shifted to new
electoral districts does register. and
suppose the conditions surrounding
the progress of the war remain sub
stantially unchanged. There Is still
q possibility that the vote on No
vember may not parallel the final
published predictions.
Public opinion surveys can meas
ure the state of public opinion as
of the time they are taken. 1t is
fair to say that public opinion re-
search has made such progress dur
ing the last 10 years that 1t can
DO fairly accurate job Of rejecting
what people want. We have not,
however, made sufficient progress
In finding ways to measure how
deeply people want what they want.
There is little doubt that II war
time conditions remain substantially
unchanged, more Of the people would
rather see President Roosevelt re-
elected than to see the election OF
Gov. Dewey. Majorities make 1t
quite plain that they feel Mr.. Roose-
velt's experience in the fields of war
and foreign diplomacy provide him
with q distinct edge over his op-
ponent. But it Is one thing to hold
that opinion passively and still
another thing to hold that opinion
with sufficient enthusiasm to make
sure 1t Is translated into . vote on
election day.
Apathy Is Big Factor.
1t is important, therefore. for us
to know just how enthusiastic these
Roosevelt supporters are In their
belief in his superiority. An cleo
ton dominated by apathy is the
nightmare of the public opinion re-
searcher. One shrewd politician has
said that If 100000 people vote,
Mr.. Roosevelt will be elected; If
A. 900 900 people vote, Gov. Dewey
will be elected. Our surveys show
us that this prediction is based on
fairly firm ground. There does, in
deed, seem to be more apathy in the
Democratic ranks than in the Re
publican.
In answer to the question as to
whether the potential voter had ever
registered to vote in his present COM
munity. we find 68 per cent Of those
saying that it is very important that
Mr.. Roosevelt be reelected answer
ing that they had. but IS per cent Of
those who believe Mr. Roosevelt's re-
election to be very bad thing indi-
Gated that they had registered to
vote
These figures would indicate that
what apathy there is, is prevalent in
Democratic ranks to a greater de-
gree than In Republican ranks. Any
one who believes in rather luke
warm way that Mr.. Roosevelt should
be reelected President. but who
doesn't translate this wish into q
vote on election day is of no help
to the Roosevelt cause and is a dis
tinct menace to the reputation Of
public opinion researchers!
just as apathy might keep more
Democrats from the polls than Re-
publicans. so might overconfidence
keep more Democrats from the polls.
For Roosevelt supporters are ex-
tremely sure this year that their
candidate will win In answer to the
question. Regardless Of how you
feel, who do you think will win the
election?" u per cent of the people
indicated they thought Roosevelt
would be reelected, but % per cent
Of the Roosevelt supporters felt sure
their candidate would win.
II the state of war remains un-
changed and these Roosevelt sup
porters translate their belief in his
victory into an actual vote on elec-
ton day, he will win. If, however,
this belief turns into overconfidence,
there may seem to many to be no
good reason to 60 to the polls on
November Z.
Overconfldence Also Important.
Overconfidence and the lack Of q
deep conviction that the election of
any candidate is extremely impor-
tant are bad ingredients for any pat
tern Of victory.
An old political maxim says that
people never vote for anything; they
always vote against something. Sur
veys indicate that there Is more than
the average amount Of truth in that
statement this year. There Is little
enthusiasm for Gov. Dewey q 1
candidate. A great many Of those
who firmly intend to vote for him
indicate that they do not ascribe to
him many Of the virtues Of great
ness. They do, however, ascribs to