Evening star., 1944-10-29
Rotioning to OutIost
The War in Europe
Writer Sees 1947 AS First
Really Normal" Year
By OUen L. Scott.

TO mean return to normal in the daiIv
lives OF people at home. The shift back
to peace will be much more gradual
than the country appears to expect.
! There Is not to be rapid demobiliza-
ton OF men in service. This is due to
| the fact that the men who will be
entitled to get out under the system of
priority will be in Europe and in the
Pacific and will be caught there until
| ships are available to bring them home.
Most shipping will be needed to shift
men and material from Europe to the
Far East.
| 1t appears now that no more than
100000 men month, II that many, can
be brought home In the early months
after the German war ends. Most men
in camps in this country will stay in
training and will be destined for service
in the Pacific to relieve other men who
will be entitled to come home. At the
same time there will be continued draft
of lds-becoming- and pos
sibly OF men under age g. If any remain
who are physically fit.
| All OF this means that many millions
OF men will still be away from home for
months after the German war ends At
home there will be many reminders of
continuing war as well.
| Rations of gasoline will remain small
over most of the country Holders of
"a" cards probably will be given another
gallon OF gasoline per week and there
will be even more for "B" card holders
but there definitely will not be driving
as usual on a rationed basis It Is
probable that fuel oil will be rationed
throughout the 1944-45 winter even IL
war in Europe is ended. Ration boards,
however, can be more liberal in granting
supplemental rations in that event.
Butter is going to remain scarce
throughout the winter and into next
spring regardless of war developments.
Sugar will be scarce, too. The fact that
there is another big corn crop means
that farmers will have plenty of grain
to feed livestock SO that marketing Of
animals will be orderly. This means a
continued tight supply of beef and pork
through the winter and into next year.
1t is true that most restrictions will
come off Of civilian production in in
dustry just as soon as the German war
ends. Yet it will be April of next year,
in all probability, before the first l945
model cars appear. Maybe 1000 900 new
automobile will be made next year. All
are expected to be rationed. so that
the average motorist must wait until
1946 or longer before he can count on a
new car. Household equipment such as
refrigerators and vacuum cleaners will
come back rather quickly.
Those who want to build new homes
will be told that they can do so just as
soon as the war ends in Europe AS a
practical matter, however, 1945 Is un-
likely to be good building year. That
will be due to the fact of continuing
labor shortages and to shortages of
lumber. as well as of some such things
as heating equipment and fixtures of
one kind or another.
Also, taxes are going to remain high
next year and people probably will feel
rather poor as a result There may be
some reduction in the excess profits tax
on corporation income, but none on in
dividual incomes until 1916 if the war
with Japan runs through next year. 1t
is expected, too, that controls will be
maintained on wages and salaries at
least until nlid-1945. Wage controls,
however, will be eased soon after the
German war ends in order to give work.
ers chance to try to make up in in
creased hourly wage rates some of the
loss of income that will come when
overtime stops. Salary controls. par
ticularly as they affect larger incomes.
Will be retained on the theory that no.
body should get rich while war is on.
Businessmen will find that le45 profits
probably are not as good as 1914 have
been. Farmers will find that their le45
income is lower than the record of 1914.
Income generally will tend downward
after the war in Europe. That will be
due to the drastic cut that will occur in
war production and in new war orders.
| & xx
Industry probably can expect that
war business will decline by more than
so per cent within three to six months
after the end of the German war. There
will be a sharper cut than that in war
goods other than airplanes and some
kinds of ships. good many weapons
and many types of equipment that have
been needed in Europe will not be
needed in the Pacific. At the same time
there will be vast stores of war goods in
Europe that can be repacked and
shipped around to the Far East for use
in the war on Japan.
This means that as war orders are
cut, many workers in war industry will
be released The official estimate is
that about 100000 persons will lose
their jobs when only one war is left to
be fought Problems of reconversion
suggest that only portion of these can
be absorbed in civilian production in
the first months after the European
war.
AS things are shaping up, 1945 Is to be
a year of change. but not a year that
will find things back to a postwar nor
NAL. 1t is probable, too, that 1s46 will
be an unsettled year, too, if the war with
Japan ends late in 1945 or early in 1916.
The first really normal postwar year
probably will be 1947. That, at least, is
the conclusion of those who make it a
business to deal with the problems that
lie ahead.
"A Peoples Peace
From the Christian Science Monitor
There would be no question about a
fourth term today did not a certain