Evening star., 1944-08-20

When the four-power conversations
on postwar security begin tomorrow at
Dumbarton Oaks. the vital and some
what enigmatic factor in their success
or failure will be the position taken by
Soviet Russia Indeed, it is not an over
statement to say that the pivotal point
of these talks is not Washington but
Moscow.
If this seems an overstatement, few
simple facts will indicate why it is not.
It is already apparent that the United
States and Great Britain are in agree
ment even before the conference begins
on the general shape and design of the
edifice Of postwar security The revela-
ton of the outlines of the American plan
by President Roosevelt and the subse-
quent favorable comment on it by Sir
Alexander Cardigan, chief of the British
delegation, give evidence that the two
powers see eye to eye, even though they
may differ on minor details. This was
true even as early as last spring when
Undersecretary of State Stettinius visit
ed London.
TdFOT League TIdH
Without reiterating already published
detail, it can be said that what WASH
ington and London want is a world Or
ganization built along the lines of the
old League of Nations-with fast-mov-
ing council Of the great powers and an
assembly of all peace-minded nations
but one having what the Geneva body
lacked. i. E., military power to back up
its decisions. They plan emphasis, how
ever, on the rights of small nations to
play meaningful role
AS for China although Chungking has
said little, it can be assigned that it
will back any Anglo-American plan that
offers security against renaissance of
Japanese power pending the day when
China can trust to its own strong right
arm to safeguard its place in Asia How
ever much one may admire the valient
fight China has made long unaided,
against the japanese, the realist must
see that China is not now military
force of the first magnitude. Indeed, its
national existence depends on continued
and increasing Anglo American sup
port.
The position of Russia is far different.
1t entered the war with an army known
TO be tremendous in size, but entirely
untested in battle with any ma jor power
Many people, including a section of the
American general staff, doubted that it
could long survive against the Germans
1t will emerge from the war as the
greatest military land power on earth
and with an army not only tremendous
in size but thoroughly modern in mech
anization and tactics and proven IN
combat
Because of RusSias great military
strength and position of primacy in
Eastern Europe and parts OF Asia, it is
recognized here that any security organ
ization set up without it would be futile
Unless Russia joins, the postwar world
would inevitably drift into a balance of
power system Of rival coalition which
would preserve, at best, precarious and
uncertain peace.
Reds in Position to Insist.
Russia, then, whether we like it or
AiSt' 40 AL q POoilASii w ICiiollQ lllC SOi
of postwar security organization which
Premier Stain and the men in the
kremlin believe will best safeguard it's
own national interests in both Europe
and Asia Russians, above all, are real
lists. The only key to their policies is
to be found in what they construed to
be their own self-interest
Fortunately for the cause of world CO.
operation and security, there is evi-
dence that Russia. like the United
States has learned that II cannot exist
safely or profitably in state of splendid
isolation. Secretary Hull, who held
series of intimate talks in Moscow last
fall with Premier Stain and Foreign
Minister " " Molotov appears con-
vinced that Moscow will cooperate in
postwar security measures. But this
willingness, as will be pointed out, will
Be conditioned by Russias prewar ex-
periences, very disillusoning, in seeking
security through diplomatic cooper
alton.