Evening star., 1944-11-07

did not fail in LEVEL Mellett.
1896 and 1910. It's a very simple
system, one anybody can use.
Most Of the work already has been
done for you by DR.. Gallup, director
Of the American Institute OF Public
Opinion, and DR.. Roper, director of
the Fortune Poll. What you do Is
to take those two famous polls and
blend them, adding a slight per-
centage Of neutral spirits to perfect
the blend. The neutral spirits will
represent the soldiers vote, which
the poll-takers have not been al
lowed to monkey with. This is the
recipe, slightly modified, that my
friend used in '36, again in 40, and
each time he turned out to be wrong
as to only one State.
1t is all based on the assumption,
historically true thus far, that the
Fortune Poll is more accurate, on
a national basis, than the Gallup
Poll. Fortune, unlike Gallup, does
not give you State-by-State esti-
mates.
Past Performances.
In 1896 the Gallup Poll under
estimated Mr.. Roosevelt's popular
vote by 6 per cent, while Fortune
underestimated it by only per
cent. In 1910 Gallup underesti-
mated the Roosevelt vote by per
cent, whereas Fortune underesti-
mated it by only 2-10 Of / per cent.
Roughly, in each Of those years
there was per cent difference
between the two polls. So what he
did, says my friend, was to add that
per cent to the Gallup estimate in
each of the States. The result, as
told above, turned out each time to
be wrong as to only one State.
At the time this beautiful system
was explained to me, one day last
week, the semifinal Gallup Poll had
been published showing Dewey
leading in % States with 255 cleo
toral, votes, Roosevelt leading in II
States with 206 electoral votes and
the candidates tied In States hav-
ing 70 electoral votes.
Gallup gave Roosevelt only 81 per
cent of the popular vote, but the
Fortune Poll gave him 531a per
cent.
Following my friends system, you
would take that difference of IA
per cent and add 1t to the Gallup
figures in each of the States. It
will give you quite a surprise, since
it will make Mr.. Roosevelt the win
ner in all but IA States.
But that isn't all. There's the
soldiers vote DR.. Gallup has esti-
mated that this may add as much
as per cent to Reosevelt's vote in
some States; other professional
guessers think 1t will add As much
as 2 per cent. .-e t y >rqi
My cautious calculator, the statis-
tician. says he is willing for you to
take DR.. Gallup's ! per cent esti-
mate, and If you do that, he says, 5
more States are added to the Roose-
welt column. That would leave
Dewey only . States: Nebraska,
Kansas, South Dakota, North,
Dakota, Iowa, Colorado, Vermont,
Indiana and Wisconsin.
The Payoff.
Well. there you have 1t. An elec-
toral landslide: 465 electoral votes
for Roosevelt, 66 for Dewey.
Mote: Final forecasts change this
dope slightly: Gallup gives Roose-
velt SIS per cent; Fortune, 536; Diff
ference FL. Mr.. Dewey would
thereby have Michigan and total
Of IS electoral votes)
My friend takes great pains to
assure me that the Gallup Poll in
his opinion is not only completely
honest but very scientific. He has
convinced himself, however, that it's
misleading when used by itself. 1t
Is simply not possible, he says, to
get as accurate a national forecast
by adding the polls of individual
States as it is by taking the poll
itself on a national basis. This is
little deep for me, but there are
others who agree with him and
there Is also the record of the 1886
and 1910 polls to support it.
IF DIR Ca1llln'S 01IeSr 10 G uyida ~