Evening star., 1943-02-21

STlaIl we pc rlcner or poorer after the
war? You remember how the aftermath
of the war was coped with last time The
people of Britain and their rulers were
so heartily sick of war conditions that
they wanted nothing but to be rid Of
everything to do with the war
The war had been a time of rather
slowly developing rationing and controls.
Very we'll" we said, let us get rid of
rationing and controls. Let us have
supply and demand. Let the people
spend the accumulated savings Of the
war as they will. Let industry looen to
meet their impatient demands as bet
it can"
Well. it locked very nice for a time.
Savings were spent; prices rose; goods
were turned out; people got JOBS, and
there was fine old boom-for about 10
months. At the end of that time, the
country had a bad slump, lasting an
other 18 months in its extreme form, and
lasting to some degree for many years.
This time, we want to switch over
from a war economy to peace economy
as quickly as we can, but sensbly, know
ing what we are doing and without
hangover without a morning after the
night before.
In short, We must have rationing in
appropriate forms for the sake of fair
ness at home and for the sake of keeping
the ship of state on an even keel. We
must have raw material controls, too,
because it will be as necessary then as it
Is now to make certain that first things
come first. that our export trade gets
what it needs and that at home the vari-
Gus commodities go where they will 90
the most good in getting back to a sound
peace basis.
We shall also want price control, with
out which there would certainly be as
Economical rises in prices, with all the
dangers of imitation, at a time when
everyone will be rushing to buy and we
shall be suffering severely from wartime
shortages.
Good Prospects Ahead.
Quite recently, the chancellor of the
eXchequer, Sir Kingsley Wood, in his
notable speech in the House of Commons,
told the country clearly that this is a
policy we must adopt after the war. I
am certain it will be accepted. We have
managed our wartime rationing and con-
trolls infinitely better than last time-it is
quite reasonable to expect we shall show
a very much improved record after the
war as we'll.
Moreover, we shall have good pros
poets to look forward to. The progress
of scientific knowledge is always going
on. Very likely, as a result of the tre-
mendous boost war gives to scientific
work, it will go on afterward more read
lily than ever. We shall find nature more
submissive to mans will than ever be-
fore in human history.
We have certainly learned some les
sons of past mistakes; we have learned
much better how to make our money
system our servant instead of the cruel
taskmaster which has exacted SO many
unnecessary sacrifices from us i'll the
past. We are not likely to let defa-
tionary financial policy throttle our con-
structive energies in the interest of
some mystical mumbo-j jumbo about pre-
war exchange PARTIES or gold values
Certainly, there is now great meas
urea surprising measure-of agreement
among economists and experts of many
different schools about the steps the
State can take to avoid the extremes of
boom and slump and to keep within
manageable bounds the volume of un-
employment.
Can Effect Higher Standards.
In short. we have at our hand all the
technical means to insure prosperity
We shall know enough to be able to
work and plan for more production and,
when we get it, to make it yield a
higher standard of living instead of
yielding, for millions of people, only un-
employment and want.
But, of course, when We look beyond
our own borders, the issue is not solely
economic issue is one on which our own
fate and future entirely depend When
we look to the future, we must get
accustomed to certain simple and fun
damental facts. I will set them out like
a kindergarten lesson. Indeed, that is
what they are-our kindergarten lesson
in postwar foreign trade.
First, if we want to keep up our stand
ard of life, let alone increase it, We
shall have to go on importing on much
the same scale as before, although we
must make up our minds to keep our
home agricultural production at as high
level as is consistent with sound
economic practice.
Second We shall have much less in
terest from our foreign investments be-
cause most of those investments will
have been realized to beat Hitler, and
we shall have to reconstruct them.
Third, it is doubtful whether our
shipping and financial services will
bring us in the income they did-we
certainly cannot count on it.
Fourth, and last, it therefore follows
that we shall have to increase our ex-
port of goods probably by several hun
dred millions of pounds-and it is not
too soon to be aware of the problem
and apply our minds to its solution.
The Old Way.
The old way Of tackling it would be
to say:
There is only so much world trade tc
be done and if the other fellow gets ou
share, we shall have to go without 81
let US fight. Let us make arrangements
TO keep the other fellow cut of as many
markets as We can Let us cut our price!
and cut his throat in the markets where
we 90 have to face him. And if a country
is not buying from us as much as w