The Waterbury Democrat., 1943-03-25
Asserts Germany Might
Be Beaten in 1914, But
Possibly Not Before AS
DEFEAT OF NAZIS BY
HARVEST TIME DOUBTED
Britain's Top War Boss Is
Less Optimistic Than
40 Days Ago
BY HARRISON SALISBURY
UNITED Press Staff Correspondent

b1 HAhH1SON SALISBURY
UNITED Press Staff Correspondent
London, March Is. (UP)
Prime Minister Churchill's
assertion that Germany
might" be beaten in 1914,
but possibly not before 1916,
has thrown cold water on the
optimistS who have been pre-
dieting an Easter invasion
of Europe and defeat Of the
NaZiS by harvest time.
No one knows when the European
war may end, but 1t was pointed out
today that Churchill's latest predic-
ton Is more pessimistic than his
previous one, and there Is no one
in better position to make predic-
tons than Great Britain's top war
boss.
Speaking In the house Of COM
mons on February II, he referred
to a strong Allied shipping position
which he hoped would be attained
by the end Of 1874 "if the war Is still
going on at that time"
eff" Removed
In the 40 days between that
speech and the one last Sunday,
Churchill had removed the ''if" from
his 1914 calculations. 'a4''E.T.'
There were three major devclop-
ments during that period:
/. The Russian winter offensive
abated and the Germans staged
strong comeback to take Kharkov.
2. The Germans launched their
major spring submarine campaign
and claimed the sinking Of about
three-quarters of a million tons Of
Allied ships in the first three weeks
of March.
8. Marshal Erwin Rommel sue
ceeded in sloTing down the Allies in
Tunisia, although the big Allied
push started just before Churchill's
latest speech.
There is no way Of telling wheth-
er these events caused any change
in the Allied timetable since its
details are a military secret. How
ever some obvious facts can be
stated.
In describing the results Of the
CaSablanca conference, Churchill
said that plans for movements and
strategy were laid down there fore
"the Next nine months"
Assuming that the nine-month
period started at the time of the
Roosevelt Churchill meeting, almost
one-third of the schedule already
has passed without major Allied
strategic gains.
One factor on the Allied credit
side has been the accelerated bomb
ing offensive against the European
continent. February was the heay-
lest Allied bombing month OF the
war but the weather has held down
March raids somewhat. Air generals
believe that they now are hitting
Germany with something like the
weight Of night bombs needed TO
cave in the Reich's industrial
Strongholds.
However, they are looking forward
to the day when bombing viii be
IIOL OI1Iy COIlIlLluOuo wv V4udAAy
heavy by day and by night.
Maj. Gen. Ira G. Eaker, American
Air Force commander In the Euro
pean theater. frankly refers 70 pres
ent daylight aids by flying fortress.
es as IAN experiment" but he adds
that the force of plares will be built
to parity with the Royal Air Force
night bomber Amanda. That win be
more difficult than 1t sounds.
Ag0nizing Period
It has taken the Raj three and q
half long. difficult. agonizing years
to build their force to its present
strength.
When the Americans landed in
Africa last November, it was widely
speculated IN the United States that
the winter would be devoted to
chasing Rommel out Of Tunisia 20
clear the decks for spring attacks "a
the soft und,;rside" Of the Axis.
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