Evening star., 1943-07-24
BuIgorions May Quit
Axis Alliance Shortly
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot

40 4CA1Ad4 hCu III ycottIudy dItlC1c-tlIdI
we should consider the possible results
to follow in the Balkan peninsula.
The Germans cannot abandon the
Balkans as they have, in effect, aban-
doned Sicily or as they seem likely to
abandon Italy. The economic stake is
one-half of their available oil supply,
drawn from Rumanian fields; the
strategic stake is the reopening of the
Dardanelles and the consequent estab-
lishmen of short and capacious supply
route from the Allied arsenals to Rus
sia. For these stakes the Germans must
fight, or they are defeated indeed
There are various elements in the
Balkan situation which both sides must
weigh carefully.
The patriot armies in Yugoslavia and,
to some extent, in Greece could become
formidable with supply of arms and
munitions. Sicily and, still more, South
ern Italy would afford stepping stones
toward the seizure of Adriatic ports on
the Yugoslav, Albanian and Greek
coasts for the purpose of establishing
supply bases for these forces. Once
oAASJ Se'AA ~ ohPPACo, UllC pau lOG dIllleS
would form threat to the Belgrade
Salonika Railway, the main German
supply line to the German garrisons
In Greece and the Aegean islands.
The Italian garrison troops are of great
Importance to Germany. They amount
to Is to 80 divisions, holding strategic
centers in Yugoslavia and Greece. If
thew fn ba y, Il
fense of Italy, or If they were to be-
come useless through the disintegration
OF their morale, they would have to be
replaced by German troops. Already the
Germans have had to increase their
forces in this area from divisions
to approximately Is. They could i'll
afford to send another Is to 20 divisions
to the Balkans. To do so they would
have to weaken the Russian front at
a .moments when the Russians are
battering at the gates of Orel and
threatening new offensive along the
Donets; or they would have to cut down
their strategic reserve by something like
one third, which would be so dangerous
In view of the existing situation as to
be almost unthinkable; or they would
have to abandon some other outpost.
such as Southern France or Norway.
altogether
There have been some hints that the
Italian garrisons might be replaced bv
Bulgarlans This might be possible. if
the Bulgarian people are prepared to
assume more active role in the war
than they have done hitherto and are
likewise prepared to run fresh risks in
the losing cause of Germany. But there
have been some pretty strong hints, too.
That the Bulgars are beginning to realize
that they have backed the wrong horse
for the second time, and are increasingly
anxious to find a way to hedge their
bets.
Bulgaria occupies position of consid-
cradle Importance. The Bulgarian Army
OF about 18 divisions is composed of good
fighting material as far as the Bulgarian
soldier himself is concerned some mod
ern equipment has been furnished bv
the Germans, but not much and not
Of the very best. The Bulgarian Army
is probably not the equal either in num-
oers or in equipment of the Turkish
Army Nevertheless. the Bulgars would
undoubtedly fight If they were to be
Invaded by the Turks.
We need not, however, go this far in
speculation. Let us rather ask ourselves
what the Bulgars would do if the Turks
did no more than aid the Allies In two
ways Cd BY affording us air bases for
attacks on the Aegean Islands. CO By
opening the Dardanelles to our shipping,
once the islands were taken. Would the
Bulgars IN such case take the offensive
against the Turks, or would they be will
ing to let the Germans use Bulgarian
territory as base for an overland attack
against European Turkey to prevent our
use of the Dardanelles?
These are questions which it is i'm
possible to answer, of course. But the
bulgars may have to answer them for
themselves. They may be compelled to
choose between active participation in
the war as an ally of Germany in the
very forefront of the battle, or an at
tempt to get rid of their German mas
ters and join their Slav brethren, the
Russians or the Yugoslavs on the VIM
ming side OF the war 1t will not be easv
Tor the Bulgars to throw off the German
yoke. 1t will not be easy, either, for
them to endure the terrific pounding
from the air that will be their lot If
they help the Germans resist an Allied
invasion OF the Balkans, when the time
comes for such move. Weighing the
chances OF that combat, it would seem
to the objective observer that the air.
sea-land power of Britain and America,
plus the oncoming might of Russia,
would appear far more formidable to the
Bulgarians than the amount of strength
the Germans can afford to put into the
Balkans.
The results in Sicily will be noted in
Sofia. Coming events will be noted like
wise If the Italian garrisons in the
Balkans collapse; if Allied arms begin
to arrive in quantity for the use of the
4ugoslavs and Greeks; if an attack on
the Aegean Islands commences; if Tur-
Key moves closer to the Allied orbit-if
all these things happen, or even two or
three of them, the Bulgars must take
them gravely into account. They have
made their mistakes in the mast hit
they are not stupid people It is diff
cult to believe that they deliberately will
commit suicide just to serve the ends of
Adolf Hitler, whom they have so little
cause to love.
Copyright, 1943, by New York Tribune, 1nc)