Evening star., 1943-11-02
Weakening Of Nozis
Prelude to Defeat
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

toric Moscow conference there will, of
course, be much speculation as to
whether the time and place for the
much discussed Anglo American attack
in Western Europe was decided on.
That such an attack must come, and
that 1t will be the decisive blow in the
war against Germany, seems certain.
But when?
The answer to that question is simple:
When the German reserves have been
sufficiently absorbed on other fronts,
so that effective German counteropera-
tions in the west are no longer possible.
This question of the absorption of
German reserves is one which has been
frequently discussed, in one or another
OF its various aspects, in these articles.
1t Is really the key to the whole strategy
Of the European war
Perhaps it can be made clearer by an
examination of somewhat similar
problem in miniature: The Tunisian
campaign, in its final phase. Here the
Germans were backed up against the
sea, holding a short defensive line with
both f1anks resting on a coastal point.
They put enough troops in their for
ward positions to make an elastic de-
tense. held back the bulk of their mo-
bile forces for counterattack.
The Allied reply was to make use of
superior numbers to launch a series of
successive attacks at different points on
the front, while maintaining steady
pressure everywhere and all the time
The Germans stopped the first Allied
preaKthroughs by vigorous counterat-
tacks, but these operations gradually
absorbed the German mobile reserves.
Finally, they were using scratch bat
tallons made up of clerks, truck drivers
and cooks. Their reserves had been
fully absorbed.
The reserves Of the Allies had not
been absorbed Gen. Alexander still had
on hand two British armored divisions.
one OF which, with other troops, he had
switched round from the 9th Army on
MS right to the lst Army in the center.
When he drove through the center of
the German line with these two divi-
slons, there were no German reserves
TO stop them. and the rest was just
matter OF mopping up the fragments.
1t may be laid down as maxim OF
war that any lineal defense can be
broken through, if the attacker is willing
TO pay the price. Attacks are only
delayed and canalized by linear defenses.
What stops an attack is counterattack.
II there is no force available for coun-
terattack, or II 1t is not strong enough.
the lineal defense will certainly be
smashed
we are seeing another example of this
along the Dnieper. The Russians have
been able to break through the German
hneal defense southeast of Kremen-
chug, but what is keeping them from
cashlng in on this success is the series
OF German counterattacks still holding
them outside of Krivoi Rog.
80 1t Will be with the fortress of
Europe. AS long as the Germans have
strong strategic reserves in Western and
Central Europe they will be able to put
up strong fight against any Anglo
American landing. We can break
through their so-calied Atlantic Wall"
whenever We are able to concentrate
enough air preparation and enough we'll
armed and equipped troops to smash
and blast our way through-at a price,
OF course. 1t is what happens after that
that counts
II there is no counterattack, or If it
is too weak to stop us, obviously We will
roll up the f1anks of the gap We have
made, and will be able to establish our
Army firmly on European soil, expand
ing until We can have air bases, supply
dumps and plenty of room for maneuver.
The reconquest of Western Europe will
have begun. and Germany will have
war not on two, but on three fronts.
Therefore the moment for our attack
in the west is the moment when the
demands of other fronts have cut down
the German reserves to the point
| where such effective counterattack can
no longer be delivered. This fact must
be considered alongside the fact that
the Germans have now scraped the
bottom of their manpower barrel. There
are no more requirements to be had
from normal sources When a German
division is smashed in Russia it cannot
be replaced. When a German division
is sent to the Balkans to hold Yugo-
slav guerrillas in check. there is no fresh
division of new recruits to begin train
ing to fill the vacancy German losses
today are net losses; German battles
today are paid for in the blood of men
Germany cannot replace.
The German answer, of course. must
be to give up territory. to shorten fronts
and lines of communication, to reduce
| distant commitments in order to protect
the vital central area which is the
source of German power. Of course in
so doing, the deadly air bases come
| nearer, the effect of air bombardment
becomes more concentrated and the
morale OF the German people weakens
| under these blows and under the ac-
acknowledgement of defeat implicit in
military withdrawal
But despite these disadvantages the
| Germans must seek to maintain their
mobile reserves, they must find a means
Of regaining, even within a restricted
area, their strategic freedom of action.
If they fail, their forces become fixed,
their power of counterattack dWindles
| toward the vanishing point as did Won