Evening star., 1943-10-01
DR.. Davenport Fears
100000 Cut
In Federal Employees
Bureau Chief Estimates
Number on Rolls, However,
To Be Larger Than in 40

The number of Federal Govern
ment employees will be reduced ap-
proximately 100000 within two
years after the war. according to
tentative estimates prepared by off,
cials of the Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics.
DR.. Donald Davenport, chief OF
the employment and eccupational
branch of the bureau, nlade public
the guess" in a speech last night
at the first fall meeting Of the So
ciety of Personnel Administration,
in Baker Hall, Seventeenth and K
streets NV.
Federal employment, now totaling
close to 100000 workers, probably
will rise to a wartime peak of about
3,5OO,O0O, DR.. Davenport said. Within
two years after peace is restored,
the elimination of some war agen-
cles and contraction of others will
eliminate the jobs of all but 500 900
OF these workers, he estimated. This
would leave 100000 more persons on
Federal payrolls than in 1910.
Controls to Continue.
DR.. Davenport saw the possibility
that the Government may have to
continue price control and ration
ing for a year or more after the
war. He pointed out that the cost
of living continued to trend sharply
upward for l8 months after the
armlstlce that ended the World
War.
Unemployment, now at a low of
about 100000 persons, probably
Will rise to seven or eight millions
in this country six months after
the armistice, according to the ten
tatlve estimates presented by DR..
Davenport. This prediction takes
into account the idleness caused by
conversion of war plants to peace
time production and also considers
partial demobilization of servicemen.
Munitions plants will shrink their
payrolls almost Immediately at the
wars end, while construction prof.
ects, which are expected to absorb
many of the men now in war work.
will be slow to get under way, Dr.
Davenport speculated.
Assuming that the Government
has a positive, confidence winning"
readjustment program to put into
operation Immediately at the wars
end, unemployment can be reduced
to an estimated 100000 persons
after two years of peace, DR.. Daven-
port said.
Tentative Estimates.
These tentative unemployment
estimates by BIS officials are based
on present prospects for postwar
jobs in manufacturing and other
fields.
1t is estimated a million persons,
but no more, will return to farms
within two years after the war.
Employment in service trades and
other non-manufacturing enter
prlses is expected to increase over
present levels by about two million
workers. A postwar increase also
is expected in the number, of pro-
prletors, domestics and professional
persons.
Manufacturing will have a post
war boom, and at the end of the
second postwar year will be en-
ploying 100000 persons, $500 900
more than in any peacetime year to
date, the BIS officials believe. Air
craft plants, which now hire 1.7OO.-
200 employees, are expected to carry
only about 100000 workers on their
payrollS, however, and employment
In manufacturing is not expccted to
approach the present war-.niated
total of approximately 100000.
Warns of Need to Prepare.
The tentative estimates presented
by DR.. Davenport also are predi-
Gated on the expectation that all
but 2,5O0,00o servicemen will have
been demobilized by the end of the
second postwar year. and that
nearly six million present workers,
mostly women, will withdraw volun-
tarily from the labor force by that
time.
DR.. Davenport emphasized that