Evening star., 1943-10-09
The New Russian Drive

~ sNSSSuNu
The resumption of the Red Army's
general offensive comes as a distinct
surprise. Military commentators
have tended to assume that the
autumn rains. coming as they did
when the Russians had come up
against the Dnieper River, would
mean a halt to major operations
while the Russian supply lines were
fully established over the broad band
OF territory reconquered during the
past four months. Press dispatches
and even official communiques from
Moscow during the past fortnight ap-
parently supported this point of view.
Now, however, Moscow suddenly
announces that the offensive has
been resumed on an even greater
scale, because new drives are starting
IN the hitherto quiet sectors from the
SmolenSk region to the Gulf of Fin
land. Here, a quick smash from the
Russian salient at Velikye Luki has
captured the German stronghold of
Nevel, thereby cutting the north
south railway which serves as the
main lateral supply artery behind
the German front. simultaneously,
successful advance in the Lenin-
grad area Is weakening the German
hold near the Baltic metropolis.
Meanwhile. Moscow reports three
victorious crossings of the Dnieper,
above and below Kiev, and near the
big bend Of the river to the east
ward. To complete this sensational
roster Of good news, Moscow an
nounces the mopping up of the last
German remnants on the Taman
Peninsula opposite the Crimea. Thus,
the new Red offensive is total, en-
bracing the entire 2,O0O-mile front
from Leningrad to the Caucasus.
These unexpected developments
may be variously interpreted. 1t may
mean either overwhelming Russian
strength, hitherto concealed Ger
man weakness, or the speeding up of
planned German retirement from
the whole OF Russia. 1t is difficult to
conceive of an explanation not COW
cred by at least one of those three
hypothesis.
The sustained offensive maintained
uninterruptedly by the Red Army
since mid-June has revealed not only
its great striking power but also its
mastery handling Of difficult supply
problems. 1t is therefore possible
that the Red quartermaster corps
has performed a logistic miracle bv
assuring an undiminished flow of
supplies during the begging down OF
autumn, which has so handicapped
both sides in the past two years. II,
in consequence, the Red Army is able
to resume its offensive in full force
during this climatically unfavorable
season, it will be the biggest marvel
which the eastern war has yet
evolved
Our second hypothesis presupposes
that the Germans have become so
weak or so disorganized by the maui
ing they have received during the
summer that they cannot stand up
against the Red Army, even though
the latter may be handicapped by
supply problems. Yet such informa-
ton as has been received from both
Russian and German sources does
not indicate losses in manpower and
equipment sufficient to undermine
German ability to resist vigorously
at key points. AS for German morale,
it can hardly have collapsed on the
eastern front while remaining high
in Italy and the Balkans. The psy-
Geological repercusSions of such a
collapse would surely be evident on
all fronts.
This brings us to the third hypo-
thesis, which is that the German
high command has determined on a
general evacuation of Russia and
does not intend to make any deter
mined stand even temporarily during
the process. But just how the high
command can hope successfully to
eXtricate its huge armies from South
ern Russia and the Crimea without
fighting strong delaying actions on
the line of the middle Dnieper is not
logically apparent.
From every angle, therefore, the
new situation which now seems to
be developing is obscure. The true
explanation must doubtless wait
upon the actual course of events as