Evening star., 1943-04-20
Where May japan Strike?

VHeIe wuy JuPon StTtke.
For some time past there has been
little land or sea activity throughout
the incredibly vast Pacific war thea
ter stretching from the Arctic waters
off Alaska to the humid, island
studded tropics OF the South Pacific
we'll below the Equator. However,
this absence of large-scale military
or naval operations does not imply
an enduring stalemate. Rather does
it appear to be the proverbial lull
before fresh storm, perhaps of un-
precedented fury.
The precipitant of this new strug-
gle would logically seem to be Japan.
Overall grand strategy OF the United
Nations is frankly concentrated
against the European end of the Axis.
This major decision does not exclude
the possibility of limited, tactical
offensive operations by American
and Australian forces, but it does
imply that no great strategic offens-
i've can be launched by them now or
IN the near future. Conversely, that
gives the Toxic high command the
general strategic initiative, since it
is not compelled to apportion its re-
sources on global scale. The pug
nacious nature of the japanese
character and the aggressive tradi-
tions OF the Japanese Army and Navy
lead to the conclusion that the Toxic
war lords will not sit still but will
strive to make the most of the Allied
decision to fight holding war In the
Pacific while the war in Europe is
being pressed to a conclusion. The
unknown quantity is how fast and
how far japanese strategy plans to
press Its temporary advantage. It
Is this uncertain factor which Allied
STATS and commentators are evalu-
ating and seek to fathom.
One Of the most inclusive analyses
has just been penned by Robert
Trumbull, correspondent of the New
York Times in Hawaii. Writing from
that favorable vantage point in mid
Pacific, he surveys the current situa-
ton as a whole and lists at least
three possible areas of Japanese
offensive operations. The first of
these is, of course, the one today
most discussed; namely, the region
north OF Australia, from New Guinea
to the Solomons. There, a tactical
balance seems currently to exist
neither side seemingly able to
launch military or naval blows across
what General Macarthur aptly
names the No-Man's Sea. The most
feasible way Of breaking this tenn
porary equilibrium of forces is by
air power, and recent japanese
aerial attacks indicate attempts to
gain control Of the local skies. The
completion OF a string Of japanese
air bases along the northern shore of
New Guinea makes possible the rapid
concentration of fighter planes flown
by easy stages from Japan itself.
That is Japan's main advantage and
the immediate source OF worry to
MacArthur's headquarters, as ex-
pressed in recent statements.
The construction by the Japanese
garrisons on Kiska and Attu of air
fields which are rapidly nearing COM
pletion have transformed those en-
emmy footholds in the outer Aleu-
tlans from a minor annoyance into
possible threat to Alaska by air raids
from those bases. Whether our re-
peated air attacks on those fields por-
tend an operation similar to Guadal-
canal Is not disclosed. At any rate,
the situation needs close watching.
The third potential source of
trouble is our line of communications
with Australia which runs from Ha-
wall southwestward via New Gale
donia. That line could be attacked
from the Japanese-mandated Mar
shall Islands. A recent Japanese
air raid on Canton Island, though not
heavy, may be the precursor to op-
erations on a larger scale, directed
at one or more OF the links in the
island chain which dots that route.
This survey shows that the Japa-
nese high command has q wide
choice If it meditates offensive plans
against us. 1t is, Of course, conceiv-
able that attacks might be launched
simultaneously in two, or even all
three, theaters Of action. Until
Toxic shows its hand, we can only
speculate on what actually will
happen.