Evening star., 1943-05-19
Will ItuIv Quit?

1taly'S relation to the war Is a
tantalizing question mark. The loss
of Tunisia, which served as a shield,
exposes Italy to the full force of
Allied air attack, while the threat to
its outlying island bases brings
nearer the likelihood of invasion of
the peninsula itself, perhaps at sew
eral points. Such operations are
presumbably not imminent, unless
there is collapse or an explosion on
the home front. And it is precisely
Italy's internal situation which con-
stitutes the chief uncertainty in a
problem that is as much political and
psychological as it is military in
character.
Unquestionably, Italy's condition is
desperate from every aspect. It's
economic life is disorganized and it's
people are war-weary and utterly
disillusioned. Unrest is rampant and
sabotage by disaffected elements is
increasing. The Fascist regime is
popularity discredited. BY itself Italy
could not fight much longer.
Yet, to argue from these known
facts that Italy is on the verge of
being knocked out of the war will be
to ignore certain other facts of
cardinal Importance. Italy does not
stand alone. 1t is the Axis partner
OF Germany. And, on balance, it
would seem to be Germany's inte- st
to keep Italy fighting even at great
sacrifices of German troops, air
power and supplies. Although North
Africa Is gone, Italy still plays an
important role in German calcula-
tions. The Italian fleet, however
unreliable for offensive action, auto
matically immobilizes a considerable
fraction of Allied naval strength.
Italian troops garrison much Of
Southern France, the Balkans and
the Aegean Islands. Italian labor by
the hundred thousand works in the
Reichs factories and on its farms.
Lastly, Italy itself serves as bulwark
against Allied invasions of France
and the Balkans, and denies Allied
air power bases from which to bomb
the innermost parts of Germany and
German-dominated Central Europe.
To think that the German high COM
mand now plans to abandon Italy to
its fate and retire to the line of
the Alps is scarcely credible. Even
though that mountain line could be
held against Allied attacks from
Italy, the other consequences already
mentioned would more than out
weigh German commitments in de-
tending Italy. 1t can therefore be
assumed that an Allied invasion of
Italy will be resisted with German
help.
OF course, determined and gen
eral uprising of the Italian people
could make the position of the Ger
mans there untenable. But such a
revolt does not appear likely. To
begin with, there seems to be little
organized opposition to the Fascist
party which has dominated Italy for
more than twenty years. That party,
though less efficient than the Nazis,
is equally ruthless, and controls the
entire governmental machine. It
likewise has its own armed power in
the shape OF Blackshirt militia
running into the hundred thousands.
Popular uprisings cannot be success
fully made in settled countries
against modern mechanized regular
forces. The most that can be ex-
pected is growing passive resistance,
coupled with sporadic sabotage by
the small militantly disafrected
minority.
The real crisis in Italy would pre-
sumably arise after actual Allied
invasions in great force, preceded by
intensified bombings which had COM
pleted the disruption of communica-
tions and the public services in the
cities. Then an anarchic breakdown
might occur in which almost any,
thing could happen. Meanwhile, it
will be well to discount sensational
rumors from Europe's neutral listen
ing posts. Italy is shaky, but an i'm
mediate collapse does not appear to
be on the cards.