Evening star., 1943-07-16
Sicily: Fact and Portent

10 pe avoided In war, conservative
eyaluation of the military situation
in Sicily indicates that the conquest
OF that island may be considered as
not only eventually certain but also
surprisingly swift and easy.
This is due both to thorough Allied
preparation and to unexpected en-
emy weakness. On the eve of the
invasion, press reports from North
Africa and London passed by Allied
censorship estimated the number of
Axis troops in Sicily at 100000 and
possibly as high as 100000. We are
now informed that they probably do
not exceed 10000. If this be accu-
rate, it is fairly conclusive evidence
that the Axis high command never
intended last ditch defense of the
island but merely delaying action
with minimum losses. Another strong
piece OF evidence to the same effect
is the lack of Axis air resistance. A
prolonged defense of Sicily would
have required a big Axis air fleet
to counter our tremendous aerial
strength. This could have come only
from the LuftWaffe, since the Italian
air arm has shown itself almost as
ineffective as the Italian fleet, which,
incidentally, is even more conspicu-
Gus by its total absence from sicilian
waters.
The upshot of all this is that the Al
lied invaders are having things pretty
much their own way. Most of the
Italian troops thus far encountered
have been either mediocre regular
units or territorial and militia for
nations, these latter being indiffer-
emily trained and ill-equipped. The
few Germans who have been met
make better showing, but it is un-
likely that any large number of them
would be deliberately sacrificed in
an operation whose unfavorable out
come was predetermined.
This does not necessarily mean
that Axis resistance on Sicily is about
to collapse suddenly, as it did in
Tunisia. There may be stiff local
resistance to the Allied offensive as
our troops work into the mountain
Gus interior, away from the protec-
tive barrage of our long-range naval
guns. But, with the invasion a week
old and the entire southeastern cor
ner of the island firmly in our hands.
the moment seems to have passed
when an Axis counterattack could
drive the invaders into the sea.
The test of Axis ability to fight
even a reasonably prolonged delay
Ing resistance is presumably Catania.
South of that city lies the largest
plain in Sicily-ideal terrain for the
maneuvering of tanks and mobile
artillery. If the Axis cannot put up
real fight there, it is hard to see
where 1t can stage a major field
action. The fall of Catania would
not only threaten Messina and the
straits, which are the natural con-
nection with the Italian mainland.
but would also cut the railway line
that branches off from the coastal
railroad just below Catania and runs
across the island to it's western tin.
This would be body blow to the
Axis defense system. Their high
command would logically do every
thing possible to prevent this. II
they cannot do that, the game should
be up in the not distant future.
One of the chief handicaps of the
Axis high command is its inability to
concentrate the bulk of its forces at
any one point. A large fraction must
be held in the west to forestall Allied
landings there. 1t looks as though
the Axis thought we would invade in
the west rather than in the south
east. We outguessed them. Yet, even
so, our numerical preponderance is
so great that we could easily land in
the west now as soon as it was de-
nuded of defensive strength. The
Axis simply seems not to have the
men and equipment to be superior to
us anywhere in Sicily. That is a
lack which no strategic or tactical
skill can correct.