Evening star., 1943-08-15
World Changes
Now Discounted
By O,ren L. Scott.

The Idea that this war necessarily
must result in very great political and
economic changes is being abandoned.
Instead the idea is growing that the
world that follows the war will resemble
in very many ways the world that pre-
ceded it.
In one very important respect there
will be change. The military power of
Germany and Japan will be broken.
The military power of this country,
Great Britain and Russia will be un-
challenged for many years to come.
Otherwise. however, if now dominant
British and American ideas prevail. there
will be an effort to reconstitute the world
pretty much along the prewar lines.
Winston Churchill has let it be known
that the British intend to do little
tinkering with the organization or con-
troll of their colonial empire. Mr..
Roosevelt now has revealed that the
effort to restore democracy in Italy and
other areas is a long-range effort not
one that will take immediate effect.
The British have far greater stake in
the economic, financial and political Or
ganization of Europe than has this coun-
try, and it is to the British interest that
prewar trade ties be re-established with
as little disturbance as possible. The
Dutch, of course, expect their East In
dian empire to be returned intact. There
likewise will be strong pressure for al
lowing Japan some measure of economic
revival along the old lines, once the mill
tary group has been liquidated.
All signs here suggest that President
Roosevelt tends to 60 along with Mr..
Churchill and with Cordell Hull, Secre-
tary of State, in shaping basis for post
war settlements. The President appears
to be less inclined to accept the ideas
that have been expressed by Vice Presi-
dent Henry Wallace and by Sumner
Welles Undersecretary of State.
Practical Values Considered.
In word. the emphasis is not to be on
any sort Of revolutionary adjustment,
deliberately promoted. 1t is not to GEN.
ter on any shift in the center of power
from the propertied classes to European
or Asiatic labor or to other revolution
ary groups. That fact is apparent from
events in North Africa, in Sicily and
from dealings with the French and other
exile governments.
1t likewise is significant that Presi-
dent Roosevelt, in his first expression on
domestic postwar policy, confined him
self to a promise of relief, at about $50
a month, for unemployed American SOL
diers plus a promise Of college education
for those soldiers who want college edu-
cation and are qualified. The President
very definitely is taking conservative
tack in his postwar thinking so far as
that thinking publicly is revealed.
All of this reflects very realistic ap-
proach to the postwar problem of Britain
and the United States, in the view of
officials responsible.
Great Britain's economic life depends
upon her ability to serve Europe as a
shipper. as broker, as a middleman in
trade and as professor of raw materials
from her colonies and dominions She
has big investments in Europe and in
Asia and her ties are very close with the
prewar owners of industry. The same,
but to much smaller degree, is true of
the American position. There are large
American investments in Europe and in
parts Of Asia and there are long estab-
lished trade ties.
1t is not to our interest nor to the
British interest to promote movements in
Europe that might result in postwar
severing of these ties or loss of proper
ties. That, at least, is the dominant view
now being expressed.
Sees World Trade Restored.
Mr.. Hull is convinced that if the re-
strictive trade policies of Germany, Italy
and Japan are broken by the war and if
those policies can be followed by policies
that permit a restoration of freer world
trade, In which this country and the
British Empire would cooperate, then
there can be revival of world prosper
ity. The British appear to incline to pol
icies that involve more trade and fnan-
cial controls than Mr Hull would favor,
yet the emphasis in British thinking is
on as near as possible a return to pre-
war methods
Of course, all of this is figuring without
Russia
The Russians, obviously, have their own
ideas about what is likely to happen in
Europe, and in China as we'll Those
ideas probably do not coincide with the
ideas now being accepted by the British
and Americans. The Russians may be
convinced that it will not be possible to
control revolutionary forces that are at
work in Europe for a period longer than
that in which the Allies will maintain
armies Of occupation on the continent
Some high officials even are expressing
concern privately over the possibility
that the Russians may reach Berlin be-
fore the British and Americans and may
turn loose forces Of kind that might not
be welcomed by this country and Britain.
There is much quiet concern. too, over
what may happen in the Balkan coun-
tries If Russian influences dominate
How the Russian influence in China will
be expressed is one more matter of con-
Germ
Those are some Of the uncertainties in
the picture They do not, however affect
the now expressed desire of this country
and Britain to avoid any fundamental
disturbance in Europe that may make
of world that had existed before the Ger
mans, Italians and japanese set out to
disturb the peace.