Evening star., 1943-10-26
Nozis Not Yet Caught
In Russian Traps
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

|
row salient into the German defenses
inside the Dnieper Bend. The point of
this salient is directed on the railway
and mining center of Krivoi Rog. (There
are some indications that Krivoi Rog
already may have fallen, and inciden-
tally I should like to call attention to
the fact that this column has to be
written before the arrival of the daily
Soviet communique, which is the one
really reliable source of information on
Russian accomplishments
In any case, the Russian advance is on
Ingulets Ton the wesD and Saksagan
| (on the easU. Such an advance is par
ticularly exposed to attacks on it's fanks
which become more of danger the
farther it goes and the narrower the
| front of the advance becomes The
Ingulets is a considerable stream, but
alone it is not enough to secure the
Russian right flank against a German
counterattack from the west, the direc-
ton in which the bulk Of the German
| strength is to be found.
1t is natural, therefore, that the Rus
slams should seek to widen the base
| and eventually the whole Of their mar
row salient, and this is just what appears
| to be happening. The eastern base of
the salient has been broadened by push
| down the right bank of the Dnieper,
| which, probably, in conjunction with di-
rect attack across the river, has re-
suited in the fall of the great city of
DneprOpetrovsk.
The Germans retiring from Dnepro-
petroVsk cannot use the main double
track railway to the west, for it is
already in Russian hands. They must
retire along the single-track line toward
the southwest which runs by way of
Apostolovo to Nikolaev, with branch
| to Kherson at the mouth of the Dnieper
From ApostoloVo, a branch line runs west
through Krlvoi Rog to connect with the
klev Znamenka Nikolaev railway. II
KriVoi Rog has fallen, the Russians may
already be on their way to Apostolovo,
thus sealing the last route of escape for
whatever number of Germans NAV now
be trying to get out Of the big bend"
area.
We have no way of knowing how many
there are. Many may have been evacu-
ated already. Others may fight their way
through to safer locations. We shall not
know the exact measure of the Russian
success until the Russians tell us off,
! clally, and the Tardstick of that success
VIII be the number of German prisoners
taken or Germans surrounded and killed
inside the Russian trap.
This is trap No /, and it is almost
closed. Trap No. 2 is the Crimean Pen
tnsula, the main exit of which was
closed with the fall of Melitopol, and the
secondary exit, by way Of the Perekop
Isthmus and Kherson, seems likely to be
closed at any time as Soviet troops race
across the plains south of the Dneper to
reach the vicinity of Armyansk. where
the new German railway from Kherson
joins the old Crimean branch line.
Trap No. is the whole southern half
Of the big bend region, which is served
by the railway running south from
Znamenka to Nikoiaev, with its branch
to Krivoi Rog. There is no transverse
line connecting this railway with the
parallel Kiev Odessa railway to the
west, for the whole length of the line
south of Znamenka. This is due to the
excellent reason that there exists no
railway bridge across the River Ingul.
Ernf7t
that the Russians are extending the base
OF their original salient to the west, as
well as to the east, and are thus threat
ening Znamenka. If they take it, they
have, in effect, taken Nikolaev and
Kherson as well, always providing that
they can hold fast against German
counterattack
This would not. however, mean that
all the German troops now within traps
Nos. and 3 would inevitably be cap
tured. 1t would be possible to withdraw
some OF them by sea- under cover of
darkness, and it would be possible to
withdraw some Of them by road from
Nlkolaev across to Vosnesensk. on the
River Bug. northeast of Odessa. But
the number that could be evacuated bv
these means is probably much less than
the total number now within the trans.
The Germans hardly can hope to make
last "Stalingrad' defense any
where inside trap No. 3. The conditions
are not favorable for it. They can
counterattack, if they have the reserves,
Their situation is desperate, but is not
yet hopeless. All depends on the forces
they have available for counterattack.
within the time limit which the Russian
advances permit them
AS to trap No. 2, the Crimea, 1t is
quite conceivable that the Germans
may make suicide stand there on the
Stallngrad model, supplying the garri-
son by sea as long as they are able to
do so. In that case, we shall undoubtedly
have test of the remaining power and
abilities of the Russian Black Sea feet
operating from its recently recovered
base at Novorossisk
To sum up the situation as it now
appears: The shadow of disaster
possibly worse than that of Stalingrad
hangs over the German Army and par
ticularly over the southern group of
armies on the Russian front, under the
command of Field Marshal Won Mann
stein.
1t is within the possibilities that the
bulk of this force may be taken or
destroyed within a comparatively short
time. But this is not yet a certainty: