The Wilmington morning star. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1909-1990, 1943-11-10
Churchill's Forecast

Prime Minister Winston Churchill of Great
Britain forecasting the overthrow OF the Hit
lerites in 1914, adds that the 400 divisions in
the German armed forces are capable of I'M
posing tremendous losses upon the United
States and Britain before the victory is won.
Considering the cost to Russia OF her success
es on the Eastern front and Allied sacrifices
in Italy, with Rome still 70 miles away, his
statement, broad though it be, probably is
correct. We have no reason to doubt that the
stiffest fighting of the war in Europe is still
ahead
This is inevitable on the grourd that attack
is always more costly than defense. and in this
case, with Europe's shores defended more Sc
curely than any coast lines have ever been
before, bridgeheads can be esta blished only
after hard and gruelling battle. From the
northern tip of Norway to southern France,
the Germans are strongly entrenched and as
long as the spirit of the srmv remains
broken invasion will be possible only at heavy
cost in lives, ships, planes and material
But Mr. Churchill does not pant the pic
has 400 divisions and fails to snow how they
are disposed. The inference is that all of this
force approximating some 6,000,000 men,
would be available to face Americans and
Britons in western Europe. This is not &C
curate. The last available estimate placed the
Nazi strength on the Eastern front at 200 d.
visions or 100000 men -one-halt Of Germanys
total armed forces. They could not with
draw and the Eastern front be abandoned with
out precipitating surrender by the German high
command or the overruning OF Germany by
Stains forces.
Cornered and suffering fresh disasters daily,
these Nazi forces in Russia can. quit, nor can
any sizeable fraction of them be redistributed
among other danger points without imperiling
the balance. They can't win in Russia, nor
sure. They must go on fighting AS long as they
have gun to shoot.
To all intents and purposes therefore, halt
of Hitler's forces are not available for oper-
alton on the Western front in southern France
or the Low Countries and Norway The other
the Battle of Italy and the increasing opera
tons in the Balkans, must be distributed over
the greatest area ever to be practically in one
war zone and must remain uncertain where
and when attack will come and i'll what num-
bers. The Germans know IN advance only
that they will be faced by superior numbers
and with superior weapons and equipment and
must be prepared to shift their forces hither
and yon wherever reinforcements are needed
on transportation systems which have been
seriously damaged and with inferior rolling
stock as 2 result of the Allied ar blitz which
has known no interruption, save by bad wealth
er, for many months.
Mr.. Churchill is not to be cortradicted nor
his forecast set aside. That almost mythical
second front. which conceivably could turn out
TO be many fronts, (and mus be for COM
plete and quick success). will certainly involve
the hardest fighting and the heaviest losses
Oh the European campaigns But it is not
necessary to cite Germanys total armed
strength, which cannot be employed for its de-
tense, When estimating the risks Furthermore
germany is still using great numbers of troops
from satellite countries who have no heart in
ther JOB, are convinced they cannot win, and
even may be out of the war b; spring. Ru
mania, Bulgaria and Hungary, each of which
mas contributed largely to the total armed
forces fighting under the Swastika, are ready
to quit at the drop of hat.