The Waterbury Democrat., 1943-01-16

VT N~@~NN
 The European Axis can appar- ently try in any one of four direc- tions:
 (a) Against Russia. The fanat- ical resistance of the Russians and their superb tactics in turning the cities into fortresses indicate that another great attack will so fur ther increase the huge Axis losses as finally to weaken their whole military structure. The present ad- vances of the Russians give every confidence that with support on their home front they cannot be overcome.
 Britain Too Strong
 (b) Against Britain. Here they have to cross the water against the enormously increasing British American air and naval strength, and American-supported land de- lenses. This seems futile to att tempt.
 Co Against Northwest Africa. volunteer office, she will discuss the water. It seems unlikely that they can hold the bridgehead in Tunis and Tripoli that they already pos- sess. Even if they succeeded in holding 1t and extending their op- erations to include Spain, Gibral- tar and Morocco, there are no sup- plies in North Africa in amounts that would relieve their home front.
 (d) Against the southeast, either through Greece, Crete and Syria, where again they have to cross water, or through Turkey, or through the Caucasus and Persia. Tn this the South-East movement alone, in conjunction with success full Japanese invasion of India, can the European Axis secure sufficient relief for the home front to assure long continuation of the war. With the full British American occupa- ticn of North Africa and the Medi- terrarean route under possible protection. 1t would seem that such a movement could be storred.
 Axis Armies Powerful
 The degeneration upon the Eu- ropean Axis home fronts has an- other bearing upon military strat- egy. Their armies of six to seven million men behind their control of the whole European seaboard and with their interior lines are exceedingly powerful. They greatly exceed any land force that the United Nations could bring to bear in 1943. The European sea coasts have been enormously fortified. For the British and Americans to attack their central position on land, during 1943, will be a bloody business. On the other hand, if the Axis for some time yet be held within Europe and constantly com pelled to guard this enormous coast line, the decay on their home fronts from internal degeneration, from shortages of supplies by blockade, and from aggressive at- tack from the air will weaken them enormously and their defeat less costly in life.
 One conclusion seems certain. The European Axis military strength will be less in 1944 than in 194S. Ours will be greater in 1944 than in 1943. The European Axis home fronts will degenerate in 1943 and 1914 while the United Nations home fronts grow in strength.
 The whole Axis fabric will be much easier to crumple with blows on land later on. And there is the possibility that Italy, especially, may crImple up without the blows.
 Four Moves Open to Japan
 The Japanese home front is not under interior pressures as yet. They have aggression still within them. They might go in three di- rections:
 (a) Against the United States. Their experience at the Coral Sea Midway and Guadalcanal would seem to dampen any such notions.
 (h) Further a c t o n against China to prevent the establishment of large air bases there by the AL lies. Owing to enormous spaces they did not succeed in overwhelm- ing China when they had only China for an enemy.
 Co Against Russia through Si- beria. This would no doubt aid Germany. Eut in that case the Jap anese will have the danger of ter. rible destruction on their home front from American air fleets via Alaska and Siberia. And an inva- sion of Siberia could bring no con- elusive ending of her war with the United States and Great Britain.
 fd) Against India in the hope of joining the Germans. moving to the Southeast. It would be some job to overrun India, but it is not to be Discounted.
 Japan's Weakness Ships
 Japan's great weakness is mer- chant ships with which to keep her castle of conquests supplied and to bring products to her home front. Tn conclusion. the bearing upon military strategy of the progressive situation on the home fronts both of the United Nations and the Eu- ropean Axis at this moment. and probably for all i943, seems to point to (al aggressive sea and air attrltlon Of the Axis; fbl tighten- ing of the ring around them: (cl extension of adequate bases for of. fensiye action; ldl further build- ing of American afr naval. land n eRe h an { marine and foed strength: fel supplies to our Allies. The result should be undoubted weakening Of the Axis. euarantee- ing decisive blows against their central cltadels later on without