Evening star., 1943-03-21
President to Avoid
Fourth Term Decision
By ODen l.. Scott.

to close the door on a fourth nomina-
ton than he did to close the door on
third On that point there is apparent
agreement among the Presidents aides.
They insist that this political issue will
remain wide open until convention
time in 1914.
Mr.. Roosevelt finds himself caught in
a dilemma. If he says nothing about
his political plans, an unfriendly Con-
gress will interpret silence as a willing
ness to continue in Office and will keep
on trying to trip up the President on
domestic issues. Yet, if Mr.. Roosevelt
should say definitely that he is to leave
office, his friends say that two results
would follow First, he would lose still
more influence with Congress. Second,
he would lose influence as war leader.
The President now speaks for the
United States in shaping war and post
war strategy and policy. He can deal
with England's Winston Churchill and
Russia's Joseph Stain as one whose
leadership appears secure. If, however,
Mr.. Roosevelt should let it be known
definitely that he is to leave office in
January, 1945, many questions would
arise in the minds of this country's
Allies and even of its enemies They
would be pre-occupied with the question
of who would follow President Roose-
welt in Office and with the question of
what the attitude of the new President
would be toward the issues of growing
Importance in war and postwar policy.
Out Of that situation, in the view of
those who are friendly to the President,
would flow confusion and uncertainty
Mr.. Roosevelt would speak as one who
could commit the United States for no
more than 20 months. His prestige
and his power would be in question with
all that could mean in laying the
groundwork for the peace that may come
in the next year or two. Some officials
even contend that Germans and Japa-
nese might take hope from knowledge
that the President was on the way out
Of Office and might try TO hold out
until a successor takes Office
1t Is against this background that the
fourth-term issue is laid. Many officials
of Importance here doubt that President
Roosevelt will act before convention time
in 1914 to stop a draft" They believe
that the pattern during the months
ahead will follow rather closely that OF
1889 and 1910. What does happen de-
pends very much upon two factors.
The first of those factors, of course
is the war. The second is the question
of possible successor to the President
in the Democratic party-a successor
who would be acceptable both to Mr..
Roosevelt and to other party leaders.
If the war against Germany is won
by June or July, 1914, as it very def
nitely might be, the President could
appear as the victor who should have
chance to shape the peace. If the
war Is not won by that time, there will
be the argument that 1t is dangerous
to change horses in the middle of the
stream. Furthermore, it is highly i'm
probable that the war against japan
will be won by that time, so that there
will be the further argument that Mr..
Roosevelt should be allowed to finish
the job. Out of the war is likely to flow
very wide variety of reasons which the
=
own mind a willingness to continue in
power
Next, there is the question of who
might be the Presidents successor in
the event that he did decide not to
accept a fourth nomination. 1t is
notable that Mr.. Roosevelt has not per-
mitted any individual official within the
1pn1nnrQtlr To
pendent status or an independent fol-
lowing.
There have been times when Henry
Wallace, as Vice President, appeared
TO be given much leeway by the White
House. OF late, however Mr.. Wallace
mas seemed not to be enjoying such
presidential support as in the past.
men, 700, democrats in Congress think
OF the Vice President as a former Re-
publican just as Republicans in Congress
think of Wendell Willkie as a former
Democrat.
Paul McNutt at one time had am
bitlons for the nomination, but Mr..
McNutt was assigned by the President
10 the very unpopular task of ordering
around the manpower of the Nation.
Mr.. McNutt's political fortunes seem not
to have been improved by his effort to
do this job and still retain some po-
litical following.
Then there is James F.. Byrnes, the
country's economic stabilizer. But Mr.,
Byrnes, like Mr.. McNutt, is busy Offend
Ing people in order to do his Job. A
publicity build-up is being given Justice
w. 0. Douglas of the Supreme Court.
Justice Douglas, however, does not have
any great appeal to the party rank and
hle The fact is that during Presi-
dent Roosevelt's years in Office he has
followed the politicians natural in
cllnatlon to keep down any possible
rival for political power.
AT the same time, Mr.. Roosevelt is
believed to be quite confident that he
could win over any Republican,. There
IS much doubt on this score among
democrats In Congress, who are not at
all favorable to fourth-term try. The
PRESIDENTS friends, however, believe that
the soldier vote. which will be large in
1914, and the labor vote can assure the
support President Roosevelt would need
Ihls whole issue very readily could
remain in the status described above
until convention time of 1914. Ger
tainly, none of the officials around the
President expect Mr.. Roosevelt to clear
up the issue at any time soon.
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