Evening star., 1943-03-03
Nozis May Be Forced
Withdraw in North
Major Eliot Believes Germans
May Lose Finland if Russions
Press On From loke linen
By Moj. George Fielding Eliot.

| BY MG1. george F1etdlnQ EltOt.
The Germans are reporting gains in
| the heavy fighting between the rivers
| Dnieper and Donets. while the Russians
are making no definite counterclaims
! 1t seems probable that, at least for the
time being. the early thaws plus the we'll
| timed and powerful German counter
/ attacks have checked the Russian drive
| for the crossings of the Dnieper on the
very Threshold of success
| The German high command had to
choose between losing the whole OF it's
armies in the Rostov- -Donets area and
putting in substantial part of it's main
general reserve 1t chose the latter course
and so far as the situation in South
Russia is concerned, the choice seems so
| far to have been justified by the result
Whether Or not it will prove justified
from the long-term view OF Germany's
basic interests remains to be seen. The
situation OF the German high command
at present is very much like that OF
man behind a leaking dam. The pres
sure of the water along the whole face Of
the dam is causing leaks at various
places. The man has just one bucket Of
cement and he keeps rushing back and
forth putting little cement here and a
little cement there to stop the worst
leaks as they appear. When he runs out
Of cement. there is nothing more that
he can do. If the dam gives way after
that, he has no means OF stopping it.
The bucket of cement represents the
to the bucket
The immediate example we have be-
fore us is the new Russian offensive in
the Lake linen area. On February l. I
pointed out the likelihood that the Rus
slams would take advantage of the fact
that the ground in North Russia remains
frozen much longer than in the south
to shift some of their attention to the
northern sector as soon as the thaws in
the Ukraine began to impede their opera
tions there. This has now happened,
and Marshal Timoshenko appears to be
making progress in the direction Of the
great German strong point at Staraya
Russia, the southern of the twin for
tresses Of Lake linen.
expected German withdrawal along the
shore of the Gulf Of Finland will in all
probability have to begin. The German
high command now will have to decide
whether they are prepared to withdraw
In the north. perhaps as far as the
Dvina or whether they can venture to
throw in few more divisions from their
dwindling reserve to try to hold Timo-
shenko in check. 1t Is quite possible
that the Germans have already made up
their minds that northern withdrawal
Is inevitable
The risk is. Of course. considerable
Loss Of German control OF Estonia and
the southern shore of the Gulf of Fin
land may very we'll result in the with
drawal of Finland from the war, or the
overrunning Of that country by the Rus
slams. This would open up the way for
Russian cooperation with the western
Allies to clear the Germans out OF North
ern Norway, thus removing the chief
peril to Russia's Arctic supply lines just
at a time when the southern movement
OF the ice foes and the approach OF the
long Arctic summer day create the most
favorable conditions for German attack
on our conveys.
But the Germans may feel that this
risk is less than the risk OF using the
last of the cement in their bucket to
stop leak which they may not be able
to stop anyway. They have got to keep
something in hand against emergencies
in the west or south. 1t is evident that
they used the reserves sent to the
Ukraine with the greatest reluctance and
only when they were face to face with
the choice of putting in more reinforce
ments or losing something like half a
million men,
AS for the southern battle itself, we
should not assume that it Is as yet
decided. Strategically, the chief difficulty
Of the Russians is undoubtedly their
! lengthening communica tons and the
| need for consolidating their hold on the
vast areas which they have reoccupied.
For example, capable as the Russian
engineers have proved themselves it is
surely proving long and weary task to
restore the full efficiency of Kharkov as
a railway center and regulating point.
Try to imagine what job it would be
to restore the full flow OF railway traffic
through Pittsburgh if that city had been
in enemy hands for over year and if
before leaving the enemy had blown up
every bridge, carried out thorough demo-
litions in every railway yard, destroyed
signal systems, roundhouses. shops, coal
derricks and water supply, as we'll as
everything else that his engineers could
think Of
to effect restoration of service at Khar-
kov and elsewhere and in the meanwhile
there is no hint that they have as yet
abandoned their offensive purposes in
this area
Copyright, 1a43, New York Tribune, Inc)
Fable From Otega's Book
Offered for Current Consideration.
To the Editor OF The Star.
The great Spanish philosopher. Jose
Otega Gasset, in Toward a Phloso-
ply of History" written some years prior
to the present war, says: Tn my exile in
France, wandering alone through the
streets of Paris, l came to realize that
| ! really knew no one in that great city
but the statues. Among these at least
| found old friends who had Stimula ted
Nor 1oet oS