Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1943-04-27
Nozis Face Dangerous
Threut in kubun Area
Moi. Eliot Sees PoroIIeI
With Situation in
North 1unisiu

The German attempts to improve
their difficult situation in the Kuban
area appear to have failed, at least for
the time being.
Here is another situation. not unlike
that In Tunisia, in which the Germans
are fighting In q narrow corner, with
their backs to the sea and with that
sea controlled by a hostile navy. The
principal tactical difference is that the
Russians lack the overwhelming air
superiority which is serving the Allies in
Tunisia so we'll, though the Red air force
does seem to have held It's own, at least,
with the Luftwaffe.
The German purpose. in seeking to
widen and strengthen their Kuban
bridgehead may have been offensive,
but was more likely defensive at least
in the immediate view. It hardly seems
possible that the Germans are thinking
of making another try for the Maikop
oil fields just at present, though they
may wish to preserve their Kuban
foothold SO as to be in position to try
this later on.
Rather more likely seems the posi-
bility that the Germans are playing
their usual game of trying to antici-
pate coming attack by launching an
attack of their own The Russians
would have much to gain by reducing
the Kuban bridgehead. First of all,
they would reclaim the valuable port
of Novorossisk as base for their Black
Sea fleet, which must have suffered
grave inconvenience from being COM
PEELED to use the poorly equipped and
badly sheltered roadsteads of Batum
and Poti. Next, supposing that the
Russians desired to go no farther, they
would be relieved of the need Of main
tanning powerful forces in this region.
and could use their Caucasian army
elsewhere. It is a good army, and in
cludes some of the best fighting troops
that Russia has.
Still more important, however. must
be considered the offensive possibilities
which the recovery OF the Kuban
bridgehead Chat is to say, the whole
of the Tamansk Peninsula) would open
to the Red Army. Given the Black Sea
fleet at Novorossisk, given the veteran
and excellently commanded army Of
the Caucasus standing on the east side
of the Kerchenski Straits, given a
strong supporting air force, the Rus
slams would be in position to undertake
combined operations for the recovery
of the Crimea. This would be an OPP
Grafton which, in its strategical nature,
would be much like the Allied invasion
of North Africa.
1t would follow the rule which has
worked so we'll there. which worked so
we'll in the Solomon Islands, which will
work we'll wherever it can be put into
effect-it would compel the enemy to
come and fight on battlefield and
under circumstances not OF his own
choosing. Whether the Germans like
it or not, they must fight for the
Crimea. 1t may dislocate their plans
on other fronts, but they cannot afford
to have the Russians retake this vitality
important peninsula. They cannot af-
ford to have the Russian fleet back in
Sevastopol. They cannot afford to have
Russian armies outfanking the area be-
tween the Donets and the Dnieper on
the south just at the moment when a
great spring campaign in that area may
be starting farther north.
But even more disastrous from the
German viewpoint are the political
effects which the retaking of the
Crimea might produce 1t would COM
plete the growing feeling of security in
Turkey as against the possibility of
attack from the north; for it would
restore complete Russian dominance of
the Black Sea, and end the chance of
any German offensive return in the
sian bombers within distant, but still
possible range of the Ploesti oil fields,
and it would certainly mean the re-
newal of the Russian naval blockade Of
Rumanian and perhaps Bulgarian ports.
1t should not be forgotten that Presi-
dent Benes of Czechoslovakia has re-
Gently given it as his view that Rumania
will be the first satellite to desert the
Axis, the moment that an opportunity
offers itself The closer the Russians
come to the Rumanian borders the more
likely that anti-Axis elements In Ru-
mania will find chance to take drastic
action.
One thing against which the German
high command must constantly be on
its guard is an effective junction in
the Balkans between the Russians and
other Allied forces It may seem long
way now from Egypt, Palestine and
Syria to the Kuban front; but Turkey
lies between, and Turkey is showing
signs, like Sweden, of moving closer
toward cooperation with the United
Nations in cause in which, after all,
the independence of every free people
is at stake. The Balkans are in ferment.
The Allies are about to regain the use
of the Mediterranean. A Russian re-
turn to Sevastopol might be the last
straw which would break the back Of
German dominance in the Balkan
peninsula.
Copyright. 1s43. N. Y. Tribune Incl