Evening star., 1943-01-07
Retreat in Caucasus
Seen Timed Too Late
Nuzi Troops Beyond Don
Unlikely to Escape Trop
Without Powerful Help
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot

~ N~J' NSof SO 4 SCtu6tH GUUE,
A general German withdrawal from
the eastern Caucasus appears to have
begun. Readers OF these articles will
recall that pointed out the danger to
the German Army in the Caucasian area
as long ago rs November n, and on
December 81 I wrote: There are prob
ably far-seeing generals In Berlin who
are IN favor Of giving up Stalingrad,
abandoning the north Caucasian area
and even Rostov and withdrawing to the
old winter line OF Kursk- -Kharkov-
Taganrog while yet there is time to
do So"
Such sober but prudent counsels ap-
pear at last to have prevailed even
with the megalomaniac mind of Adolf
Hitler. 1t remains to be seen whether
q decision which, II taken on November
II or even on December 21, might have
saved the Caucasus army, will be in time
to do 50 now.
The immediate object Of the German
retirement Is probably to save the
easternmost echelon Of their forces which
has been fghting for some weeks along
the river Terek on the outskirts of the
Grozny OIL fields. This army has given
up all OF It's advanced positions and
Is retiring along the Rostov-Baku rail-
way toward Georgievsk. 1t is being
pressed from the rear by Russian forces
which are probably using equipment
brought in through the Persian Gulf
and from the Russian depots In the
trans-CaucaS1an area. Some of these
supplies have probably also been used
to bolster the Russian forces defending
Tuapse and the approaches to Batum
at the western end Of the Caucasus
range.
The northern flank of this retreating
German Army is doubly threatened
nrst by the mobile Russian column
strlklng down across the Kalmyck steppe
through Elista, and, second and more
dangerously by the Russian Army NOV
Ing southwestward along the railroad
from Kotelnikovski. The communica-
lions, and therefore the striking power,
OF this latter force have been much
improved by the Russian capture of
Morozovska and Tsimlyansk. which were
mentioned in my article of Yesterday
as likely objects for immediate Russian
attack. 1t is also possible that a direct
threat to Rostov along the north hank
OF the Don may develop from Tsimlv-
ansk.
A point which is not vet clear is
whether the Germans have decided IN
get out of the Caucasus altogether and
are going to try to pull back behind the
Lower Don at Rostov, or whether they
Will make a stand in the western part
OF the North Caucasian area in an en-
deavor to hold on to the Maikop oil fields
ana the Port OF NovorosSisk. From the
map 1t would appear possible that thev
might try to supply and reinforce their
troops in this region through the Crimea
and across the Kerchenski Strait, There
should be certain amount of ice in the
stralt oy this time, but whether this will
De suf11clent to permit the passage of
troops with heavy equipment is oues-
tlonable. The Germans should have to
give this area considerable amount of
air cover to protect the crossing of the
strait against attacks by what remains
OF the Russian Black Sea fleet But
perhaps the greatest danger would come
from the Russian army al Tuapse, which
would be free to strike northWard against
the German communications.
Indeed, the more one examines this
great Russian counteroffensive as it de-
Veiops, the more one is compelled to
admire the almost mathematical preci-
sion with which every contingency has
been foreseen and with which everv mart
OF the Russian arrangements fits smooth
~ into the general scheme For eyerv
possible German move the Russians
seem to have provided an adeouate
countermove.
On the whole, it seems very unlikely
that any OF the German troops now be-
yond the Don can extricate themselves
from tnelr present predicaments unless
tney receive powerful help. This helm
would seem to be most likely to be an
pied IN the form of powerful German
offensive coming from the general d.
rectlon OF Kharkoy and striking against
tne western flank Of the Russian forces
OF the Middle Don. This would be the
classic German rejoinder, but it Is one
70 wnlch the Russians may we'll be ready
TO provide an answer The Russians still
holo the crossings Of the Upper Don in
the Voronezh area and here thev are
believed to have assembled additional
reserves which might be launched south
westward against the flank of anv sucb
German movement should 1t be at.
tempted.
1t is, OF course. still possible that the
Germans may find a way out of the tran
which the Russians have sprung upon
them. And we still do we'll to restrain
the free exercise Of exultant Imagination
out with every day that passes the Rus
Aan prospects seem to grow a little
brighter and the Germans prospects O
little darker. 1t seems altogether prob
able that Adolf Hitler is going to have
reason to wish that he had listened to
the more sober-minded of his generals
more attentively and about 30 dav.
sooner.
tcopyr1sht, 1p43, New York Tribune, 1n.,
Patriotic Civilians Praised
For Their SeryiceS In Na{~hho,.