Evening star., 1943-12-12


tant insurance brokers' organization in
the world. It's members not only insure
ships and their cargoes at sea and
other prize possessions but also accept
election bets all over the world insure
stockholders against the death of some
important captain of industry and re-
Gently have accepted odds regarding the
end Of the war.
The odds on the wars conclusion have
been f1uctuating, like the bonds and
shares Of any stock market. They have
varied from 10 to to to /. When the
drop in the quotation is low the world
is full of peace rumors and reports
which have definite repercussion on
the bond and stock markets throughout
the world.
At present the odds on peace in the
next few months" are low. If the
brokers were to take the advice of the
military and naval men who are run
ming the war they would be somewhat
less optimistic
The Teheran conference has shed
little light on what we are going to do.
The warning to the German people that
they would be attacked from the east.
west and south, that their submarines
will be fought off reientlessly and that
their cities and industrial centers will
be mercilessly bombed from the air
brings little news into the picture.
Still Powerful Defense,
We have been bombing Germany and
the other Nazi-held countries for over
year. The Russians have been pound
Ing at the gates of Poland for several
weeks and the American and British
forces have been attempting since early
IN september to break through the Ger
man defenses in Central Italy in order
to reach Rome. 1t would be idle to saw
that on either of these land and air
fronts we have not been doing our best
to crack the NaZis. If we have vet not
succeeded, the reason is that the Ger
mans still have a powerful defensive
strength which will take time and lives
to break.
A new front in Western Europe, which
IN the opinion of the American general
stan, will hurt the Nazis more than
anything else we have done so far. has
been discussed since July, 1912. Nothing
mas happened in that area yet because
we were compelled to undertake mill
tary operation in North Africa, then
Sicily and Italy. That operation has
drawn from the offensive strength of
the Western Allies close to 1000 600
men and many ships which otherwise
would have been employed in taking
troops and war material to the British
1sles-the jumping board for an inva-
sion of the continent.
the campaign in Italy has pro-
gressed at slower pace than was orig
lnally expected. The Germans, deprived
OF the support of their allies, the Ital-
ians, have been able to fight the Anglo.
American invasion forces.
The general staff has made a fai,
estimate of how many more troops will
be required for the Italian campaign
and on the basis of that estimate it has
been able to earmark large number
OF transports to carry an American
striking force to Britain. It is now
assumed that we will be ready to strike
at the Nazis in Western Europe in the
next few months but no earlier than
the end of spring.
Nazis Know Harbors.
How long it will take for us to gain
the necessary beachheads across the
Channel is not possible to forecast. The
Allies have a fair idea of the Nazi de-
fense in the Lowlands and in France.
There are certain definite ports which
must be occupied to permit the entrance
OF large ships to unload the vast wal
material and the many thousands of
men necessary for such a campaign
The Germans know, as they did when
we decided to invade Central Italy from
the sea, which of the available harbors
will be the main target of the Allied in
vasion.
Our military men do not underesti-
mate the Nazi's defensive strength
neither do they overestimate the value
of aviation in military operations Of
that type. Unquestionably we will have
overwhelming air superiority, but that
does not fully guarantee the success OF
the operation. 1t did not at Salernc
and likely will not in France or the
Lowlands.
Artillery, tanks and infantry will hav,
to bear the brunt of the battles to come