Evening star., 1943-09-06
Allies Keep Nozis
In ItuIy GUESSING
BU Mai Geo. Fieldino Eliot.


all attention, but there is nothing more
to be said about that operation until its
next phase can be known. The British
have their beachheads they have en-
countered--so far-only token resistance
from the Italians and no Germans. The
world awaits the news of the where
abouts of the 7th American Army, per-
haps also of the 5th and the French.
But the word has not come, and until it
does, guesswork is futile. Perhaps we
may draw a hint from the renewed air
attacks on the railway communications
in the vicinity of Naples, but even that
is capable of two interpretations: A
landing in the Gulf of Naples, or mere
cutting of the rail lines which serve
such Axis forces as may be preparing to
resist the British down in Calabria.
We must very properly remain in the
dark until the new blows fall We may
be sure they are coming, and we may be
sure that the absolute dearth of official
news is one of the cloaks used to prevent
the enemy from obtaining knowledge of
where they are coming. Even the air
attacks may be intended deliberately to
deceive the foe
He is just as anxious to know what Is
about to happen as we are; more so, for
until he does know he cannot make the
best disposition of his limited forces to
meet the Allied thrusts Let us try for
moment to look at the problem from
the point of view of purely mythical
Field Marshal Won x, who is, we will
assume. the commander of the German
troops in Italy.
We will say that Won x has at his
disposal IL German divisions in North
ern Italy and 3 divisions in South
Italy. The last three are the divisions
which escaped from Sicily, and which
have since been built up to something
like their former strength by replace
ments OF personnel and equipment. Won
x has, let us say, 500 fighters and few
squadrons of bombers: he can call on
some additional bombers from the gen.
eral reserve, but not many, unless and
until it is clear that the Allies are landing
in great force. He is quite uncertain as to
how far the Italians can be counted on;
in any case there are not more than 20
or 80 Italian divisions available in the
peninsula, and some of these are not up
to strength.
Now comes the news of the British
9th Army's landings at the tip of the
Calabrian toe" What is Won x to do?
If he rushes his three German di-
visions to the spot and starts heavy
fight in the Calabrian hills, no doubt
he can hold Montgomery back for
time. But can he depend on the Ital-
ians to defend his rear against an Amer
ican landing? The American 7th Army
can come ashore almost anywhere along
some 200 miles of coast-the stretch
within fighter operating radius from
Siclian bases The Italians cannot pos
sibly defend so long a front against
penetration whose point of incidence
cannot be foreseen. Once the Ameri-
cans are ashore north of Won KS three
divisions, those divisions are trapped.
So he cannot send them south until he
is sure where the Americans are. and
perhaps not then.
Shall he call for reinforcements from
the north? If they start at once and
come southwark with all the capacity
of the italian railway lines devoted to
their movement, Won x could hardly
count on the delivery in South Italy of
more than division a day-and it would
do little good to build up force of six
or seven divisions, to be trapped just as
surely as his original three divisions,
though its development and destruction
might take a little longer
In fact, Won x may well entertain a
shrewd suspicion that his willy opponent,
Gen. Eisenhower, whose mind he has
learned to respect from bitter expert
ence, would like nothing better than to
destroy the German Army in Italy in
such piecemeal fashion. This sus-
picion may be confirmed in his mind by
the smashing blows of the American
long-range bombers at the railway
bridges at Bolzano and Trento. on the
main railway line which, via the Bren-
ner Pass. connects Italy with Germany.
That looks as if Gen. Eisenhower were
trying to cut off the German troops in
Italy from any hope Of supply or REIN
There seems only one possible de-
cision for Won X-to withdraw his three
German divisions northward, leaving
local defense to the italians and per-
haps a very few small German detach-
ments, and. take up a position per-
haps near Taranto or perhaps as far
north as Foggia or Naples, where those
divisions can act as a covering force for
the main body of the German Army in
Italy, and can take advantage of any
favorable development in the situation
for example, perhaps, chance to
strike telling blow at the Americans
while the British are still too far away
to help them. But it is really impossible
for Won x to make a worthwhile plan
until he knows what his enemy is up to.
So if you feel the suspense of these
crucial hours hard to endure, you may
soothe your nerves with the comforting
realization that the German high COM
mand finds it even harder.
Copyright, 1a43, New York Tribune Inc)