Evening star., 1943-10-31
Industrial Exponsion
Postwar Problem
By ODen L. Scott.

| created industries once the war ends Is
beginning now to get official attention
This Is a problem of very great con-
cern to private industry and to many
localities throughout the Nation.
In the war period, Government Is
spending 00,000000 on plant and
equipment. This represents an invest
ment more than half as great as that
represented by all of the plant and
equipment of private industry before
the war. Then, on top of that amount,
Government is pouring other billions
into capital investment In the form of
merchant ships and airfields scattered
around the world.
Out OF this situation grows the ques-
tion of the postwar use, II any, that
the Government intends to make of its
wartime investment in capital goods.
A partial answer to that question now
can be given.
President Roosevelt is letting it be
known that the $3.50, O,0OO, 900 investment
now being made in a new synthetic
rubber industry probably will be written
of in large part. He has said that he
will veto any bill that establishes a
tariff on rubber imports. Inasmuch as
natural rubber, at least at this stage,
can be produced and sold more cheapy
than synthetic rubber, this means that
much of the new synthetic industry
Will not be able to meet its COM
petition once the British and Dutch
possessions in the Far East are restored.
1t is doubtful if the veto of q tariff on
rubber could be overridden.
In merchant shipping the situation
Is somewhat different High officials
have let it be known that the United
States intends to maintain a large mer-
chant marine in the postwar period.
Before the war this country controlled
about IS per cent of the worlds mer-
chant shipping. After the war it will
control about As per cent of a larger
tonnage IN the worlds merchant marine.
Part OF this tonnage is likely to be put
INTO an inactive reserve, but it is ex-
pected that ships sufficient to carry
ABOUT 30 per cent of the Nations for
eign trade will be operated.
Then there is an immense Govern
ment investment in aircraft factories.
lhoSe factories are capable of turning
out about 100000 military aircraft a
year. A conservative estimate is that
employment and payrollS and produc-
tive effort will be cut back 80 to e5
per cent after the war. Even then the
industry would be operating at a rate
more IMAM 10 times It's prewar level.
lhls means that the Government will
nave on Its hands a great quantity of
machinery and a large number of un-
used aircraft factories.
Government officials expect that the
ne" tln-smelting industry will be kept
IN operation. They also expect that many
private industries will exercise options
10 BUY the most modern war-created
pants that fit in with their plans for
postwar production. What is to hapnen
TO the vastly expanded aluminium in
oustry. much Of its plant Government
owned, is uncertain, but the present off,
clal intent is to see that competition
is maintained in this industry through
control OF producing facilities bv more
tnan one company.
lhefe Is big new steel industry now
estaoAShed in the West. Again the
intent is to keep this industry in onera.
tloh' even II 1t requires some subsidy
On lhe ground that national defense
demands more decentralization of the
steel producing industry. The new mag
heslum industry poses another problem.
one OF the biggest magnesium plants.
bullt by the Government is a hiph-cost
producer and could only be maintained
IN operation through subsidy. That
plant probably will close along with
many other plants Of various kinds. 1t
IS expected that the Army and the NAVY
Will maintain in standby condition most
OF the big new units in their munitions
mouStry. The chemical industry NAV
md that it can use many of the nlants
LOT making chemicals that have spr1lno
up as result OF Government financing.
After the war there will be great
numbers Of machine tools that will not
pe heeded by peacetime industry. There
also will be very much machinery in the
same position
1t is being suggested by some spokes-
men OF private industry and by Gov
ernment officials as we'll that part of this
surplus should be lease lend or sold
cheaply for export. Europe, with part
OF It's industry bomb-blasted, as we'll as
Russia. China and South America. will
be in need of machine tools and ma
chinery as replacement and for expan-
sion of industry.
however, the wartime expansion of
industry In the United States is so great
That 1t is almost certain to leave behind
many postwar problems Officials al
ready are beginning to worry about the
clamor that will arise in some regions
when big war plants are closed and the
machinery is left idle or scrapped FIX
panslon has been centered on the Pacific
Coast, on the Eastern seaboard and
around Detroit Contraction can be ex-
pected to occur in the same areas. Work.
Ing population has skyrocketed in these
areas while it actually has contracted
during the war in parts of the Middle
West. This suggests troublesome prob
ANiii Va uiioCi diHpllllS dIler Cne war.
An encouraging factor in this whole
situation Is that high officials already
are aware of the problems that will arise
and are starting now to think about how
those problems are to be handled. A
near certainty is that this country, after
the war, will have many ghost factory
and many reminder of the vast effort
that was made in wartime Mr.. Roose-
Velt already is suggesting that it will