Evening star., 1943-07-28
Population Growth
Outstrips Resources
To the Editor OF The Star:

In the New York Sunday Times July
| II. there appeared an article by John H.
| Crider which every one interested in the
future welfare of the American people
should read Mr.. Crider clearly shows by
quoting the highest authorities and most
scientific evidence that the United States
has been living on its capital of natural
resources and that the day Is approach
ing when the American people may be
faced with shortages which would en-
| danger their standard Of living and their
democratic institutions. This is especial
ly true as regards oil. the life blood" of
industry, and land, the heart Of the
country.
| At the present rate Of oil consumption
the known reserves will last only IA years,
but long before there is a complete ex-
haustion of reserves shortages are likely
| to be felt. New reserves are being dis
covered from year to year, but their
quantity is nothing like that discovered
| formerly, and since 1881 the backlog of
| proven reserves has not kept pace with
the increase of production and con-
sumption.
Meanwhile there is a lot of optimistic
| talk about the great possibilities for
industrial expansion after the war and
the powerful gasoline that every one can
have in his superautomobile. Yet, as
A. /. Levonsen, chairman of the Research
Committee of the American Association
Of Petroleum Biologists, points out
During the next 20 years, II we are able
to maintain the same rate of increase in
supply and demand. and the same ratio
of reserves to annual consumption as has
prevailed during the past 20 years, it will
be necessary to add-by discovery or
some new unknown method-oil on the
order of $4,000 100000 barrels This
amount of oil is more than twice the
amount of our known total reserves.
On June 25 Secretary OF the Navy
Frank Knox told Congress that this
country faced a serious shortage OF oil
within year and possible exhaustion of
known oil reserves within 20 years. Even
| if we are 100 per cent more fortunate
than Secretary Knox suggests, 1t is quite
| possible that our oil reserves, known and
newly discovered, will not last more than
| 40 years, and during this period the
American people are likely to be faced
with an increasing rate of diminishing
return& In the meantime, our popula-
| tion will increase some 80 900 900, or
| about one-fourth according to the ac-
| cepted forecasts, even if our birth rate
decreases 25 per cent by 1888.
| This is not very pretty picture for the
| future of the American people, and 1t is
picture that is not frightened by the rate
at which erosion is destroying a natural
| resource even more valuab BILE than oil
| namely our land. On April %. 1899 Dr.
Hugh H. Bennett. chief of the United
| States Soil Conservation Service, told
Congress: we are losing every day. as a
| result of erosion. the equivalent of 200
| 40-acre farms. We have lost that much
| since We were here yesterday. 1t Is gone,
| gone forever"
In considering the destruction of our
| most valuable natural resources-land-
there are certain factors that should be
emphasized
l. This country, unlike most countries
| OF Europe, where rains are not so tor
rental, is especially susceptible to both
| wind and rain erosion.
2. While it may take years for erosion
| to destroy the first few inches of the
toughest top soil when these few inches
are destroyed, as they have been in many
| parts of this country, erosion may then
progress more rapidly than before.
3. This war, like the last one, will no
doubt increase the rate of erosion.
| We have quoted the chief of the United
| States Soil Conservation Service as say
ing that I'VE are losing every day, as
result of erosion, the equivalent of 200
4O-acre farms" Let us see what this
would mean IN terms of supporting peo-
| pie at the end of As years. assuming that
it takes 2la acres on the average to
support one person. In As years erosion
would destroy the equivalent of l31 400
600 acres of land which might have been
used to support $1,000 900 more people
than the entire population of the British
| Isles. However, while we may have
| l31 100000 acres less Cor as much as one
| third of land now in cultivation), our
| population could increase 80 900 900 be-
| tween 1910 and 1885, even if the birth
| rate decreased Is per cent, or one fourth
In the above we have the making of
the decline and fall Of the worlds great
| est democracy and richest nation. This
| tragic situation may not materialize, but
to prevent it the American people will
| have to show a great deal more fore
| thought than they have shown In the
| past.
| What is the solution for these gigantic
problems seriously affecting the lives OF
every man. woman and child in this
country? Technology will have to find
substitutes in amazingly large quantities
for the vital mineral resources which are
being depleted. America will have to
save its top soil at almost any price,
Thirdly, we will have to stop all this
loose and reckless talk about increasing
the birth rate and stabilize our popula-
ton as soon as possible with fairly
well-balanced age distribution. This last
might be done in 80 to 40 years, il our
birth rate were allowed gradually to
decrease some 25 per cent during this
period
We don't need 10000 900 more people
in this country (Which would be the
increase even if our birth rate decreases
IS per cent?, assuming we could stop