Evening star., 1943-07-18
Axis to Be Defeated
in Two Years
By ODen L. Scott.

defeat of Italy sometime in 1943, defeat
of Germany sometime in 1914, defeat of
Japan sometime in 1945.
There now is every sign that this time
table can be approximated. Up to the
present, the tendency has been for some
lag to appear in meeting schedules. That
lag was due in large part to the difficult
ties involved in preparing for attack.
Many of those difficulties now are being
overcome both in the war against Ger
many Italy and in the war against Japan.
In both of these wars, one of the doml-
mating facts is that the Initiative has
passed from the hands of the enemy to
our hands. This means that the Ger
mans and japanese are inheriting all Of
the difficulties of defending a far-f1ung
empire that we and the British faced
year ago. A second dominating fact is
that while we can reach and interfere
with the industry and supply lines on
which enemy strength rests, the Germans
and Japanese are unable effectively to
attack the powerful machine of war pro-
duction now operating inside the United
States.
A glance at the present situation shows
why it is that officials here feel confident
that this country and Britain will be
able to meet the war timetable against
which they are working
That timetable relates first of all to the
German Italian part of the war. Italy is
almost wholly dependent upon Germany
for the means with which to fight an ef-
fective war. Her war industry is not ef-
fective. Her Navy is badly battered. Her
air force is pretty much knocked out of
the air. Her army depends upon tenuous
and difficult supply lines.
1t Is Germany which really must be
defeated in this war Germany's posi-
ton is becoming very strained. Why that
is so can be. seen from what follows.
Germany Failing.
German war production no longer is a
match for the United States and Great
Britain. Her Western European trans
port is hurt by air attack. Her raw ma
terial position is increasingly strained by
blockade. Her manpoWer is stretched to
the breaking point. Her basic war indus
try is handicapped by air attack. All
the while production is booming in this
country and Britain, relatively free from
attack.
At sea the Germans had to succeed
with submarine blockade to neutralize
the power of the United States That
blockade is failing. 1t is highly doubtful
if the submarine ever again in this war
can become a dangerous threat SUBJ
marine bases are under air attack. Anti
submarine measures at sea are increas-
ingly effective.
In the air the Germans first were
driven out of Africa, then out of Sicily.
They are being pushed back farther and
farther in the air over France. Their
ability to find an answer to rising British
and American strength is seriously ques-
toned. That ability will be put to fur
ther test, once bases are established for
bombing of Germany from the south and
east as we'll as from the west and north.
On land, German armies still are larger
and more powerful than British or Amer
lean armies. Yet the German Army is
heavily committed in Russia. 1t is faced
with the task of defending a land en-
pire that stretches for thousands of
miles 1t cannot be strong at all points
at the same time.
AS result, there is little ground in
Germany for any hope of winning.
Every setback in the air, on land or at
sea reduces the chance for negotiated
peace. Yet, defeat of Germany will be
difficult and costly. 1t probably cannot
be achieved prior to large-scale Ameri-
can-British invasion of France. That
defeat is expected in 1914
japanese Face Disaster.
Once Germany is defeated Japan's
days will be strictly limited in number
The Japanese, even before the Pacific
war really starts, are finding that their
new empire can be burden as we'll as
an asset. That empire must be defended.
To defend it places very severe strain
upon Japan's small and weak war in
dustry. That defense, in its preliminary
stages is eating into Japans shipping
reserve, into her supply of trained pilots
and airplanes, into her supply of war
ships. Japanese industry is unable to
replace these losses, let alone match
American production.
American submarines are sinking jap
anese merchant ships as rapidly or more
rapidly than they are being constructed.
American industry is turning out
brandnew American Navy Of the size of
the Japanese navy every six months.
American industry soon will be producing
in one month as many aircraft as ia
pans industry can produce in year. The
American planes are far superior to those
of Japan.
OF late, Japanese warships have been
avoiding a fight with American ships
wherever possible. Japan has been try
ing to conserve her aircraft. The Jap
anese are having difficulty supplying the
far-flung bases that must be maintained
to defend her Pacific empire. All of this
is before the British and American
navies and air forces have started to
concentrate in the Pacific
At this time, American forces are busy
building springboards for the eventual
attack on the perimeter of Japans en-
pire. When that attack finally comes, it
probably will be something to behold. 1t
should come in time to assure Japan's
defeat before the end of 1945.
All of this is not to suggest that the
present wars can be won without fighting.
There is to be much fighting and heavy