Askov American. [volume] (Askov, Pine County, Minn.) 1914-current, 1943-03-04
Fact And Opinion
Ascertaining Public Opinion. .
BY e. c. Stengelsen.


The poll or straw vote is recent
development in means of deter1nin-
| ing the wishes of the public, or of
ascertaining the extent to which a
particular course meets with the
approval or disapproval of the peo-
pie.
The outstanding example is the
Institute of Public Opinion, con-
Quoted by DR.. Gallup.
Mr.. Roosevelt and other govern
ment leaders are said to pay close
attention to the trend evidence by
these polls. If this is true, l Won
der whether they realize the limita-
lions on the accuracy of these polls
whether they understand that while
such sampling may reliably reflect
majority opinion in one instance, it
may be wholly unreliable in Others
To my mind, its accuracy is de-
termined by two factors The first
of these is the manner in which the
question is put.
1t is not wholly its wording. Much
depends upon the attitude of the
! interviewer. I can best illustrate
this by relating the experience of a
social service group in New York
some years ago when they tried to
determine which causes had con-
tributed most to the condition of the
human derelicts who were the OBJ
jects of their charity. -
One of the intervieWers was a
Prohibitionist, the other was a So
cialist The Prohibitionist brought
back report which indicated that
three-fourths laid their downfall to
drink. The Socialist, however, found
that it was the ruthlessness of the
capitalistic economic system which
lay at the bottom of their troubles
Each had probably made sincere
effort to ascertain the truth; but,
unconsciously, they had permitted
their own prejudices and convictions
to color their questioning in such a
way as to affect the answers.
+.
the nature of the matter inquired
about. Is it, or is it not, something
on which the person interviewed
may feel reluctant to express him.
self freely?
IsolationiSm might be such a
question. Because the intervention
lists have largely controlled govern
ment, they have likewise largely
controlled the expression of opinion.
Through propaganda spread by the
interventionist press, they have man.
aged to make isolationism synony-
nous with disloyalty and .un-Amer-
icanism. .Ga. 81.
It is, of course, nothing of the sort.
Ultimately, interventionism m a y
prove to have been wholly alien to
Americas best interests. The best
that can be said for it is that it is
as open to challenge as isolationism,
and that its wisdom has yet to be
proved. -. ..- 90.
But an interviewer, questioned on
his attitude with respect to isola-
tionism, will be reluctant to express
disapproval of Intervention, even if
he looks at it with disfavor For
he would be compelled to confess
belief in a view which has been
made to bear the stigma of disloy-
atty and un-Americanism. He is
likely to take the path of least re-
sistance and express a preference
for Intervention.
The Administrators Lend-Lease
program comes in much the same
category. To oppose it is to take a
view made synonymous with short
sightedness and stupidity. 1t is quite
possible that lend-lease is favored
by large majority. But that this
is proved by the figures reflected by
the Gallup poll / greatly doubt.
The polls have forecast election
results with remarkable accuracy
But perhaps it is not, after all, SO
remarkable. We have here situa-
ton which is wholly different from
the two mentioned above. @,f.
The interviewer is under no re-
straint. He can express himself
freely. No stigma attaches to his
choice. Under such circumstances,
the figures are likely to be depend
able. All that is required is that the
proper method of sampling be used.
The law of averages will do the rest
The foregoing explains, think,
the queer inconsistencies between
the showing made by the polls con-
corning these controversial questions
and the outcome of last falls con-
gressional elections.
They did not answer the poll
takers honestly, because, to have
done so, would have been to admit
| a view attacked bv the intervertion-