Evening star., 1943-09-08
Beck to the Dnieper

Back to the Dnieper
The autumn rains, coming on
schedule and beginning, as usual, in
Southern Russia, logically interrupt
or possibly terminate the great Red
summer offensive which has pro-
duced such momentous results, Be-
ginning on July II as local counter
attack to the German drive on
Kursk, it rapidly broadened to
genuine big push" on a 600-mile
front stretching all the way from
the Smolensk region opposite Mos
COW to the Sea of Azov. And every
where on that vast battle-ground the
Red armies have won a series of
successes which have permanently
altered the character of the war in
Russia. The Germans have lost
their cherished tactical springboards
from which new offensives might be
launched. Indeed, their strategic
situation is such that much terri
tory still held by them becomes un-
profitable or perilous. Condemned
henceforth to the strategic de-
fensive, they appear compelled to
withdraw further westward to a line
at or near the Dnieper.
This rehabilitation OF the Ger
mans eastern front may not come
Immediately. 1t is quite possible
that their high command may take
advantage of the rainy weeks ahead
to launch counterattacks on the
advancing Russians who must have
outrun their broad-gauge railroads
and are operating over strained
communications. Yet such attacks
should be considered tactical rather
than strategic in character, designed
to inf1ict losses and gain time for
German reconsideration. With their
European Fortress" threatened at
many points, it is almost inconceiv-
able that the German high COM
mand has the reserves of men and
equipment to mount new east
ward offensive like those of previous
years. The Russian autumn Is short,
and when winter comes the climatic
balance will again swing to the Red
side. Then, fresh Red surge west
ward should be in order, against
which the Germans must carefully
prepare.
The chief uncertainty in German
plans is where they propose to draw
their new line in the extreme south.
The Dnieper is mighty river, Sec
ond only to the Volga. 1t flows al
most due south through Central
Russia as far as Kiev. There, it
trends sharply eastward as though
to empty into the Sea of Azov, then
turns sharply westward again, fall
ing into the Black Sea not far from
Odessa. The easternmost tip of this
big bend" is approximately 100
miles from the Azov coast, thus un-
covering the Crimean peninsula to
a landward approach. Across that
vital strip OF territory the Germans
must establish very strong defense
line unless they surrender the
Crimea, with all that would imply.
This, they show no signs of doing.
They cling stubbornly to their
toehold in the Caucasus which
protects the Crimea from an east
ward attack. Until that Caucasian
toehold is evacuated, we may pre-
sumo that the Crimea will be held
with the greatest tenacity.
The contrast between the present
situation and that of a year ago is
astounding. Last year at this time
the Germans were still pounding
heavily at Stalingrad and the Eastern
Caucasus. Now they are hundreds
of miles to the westward, under
heavy Red pressure and with no hope
of reversing the new stategic trend.
The German armies have avoided
disaster and still possess defensive
strength. But their offensive power
Is gone.