Imperial Valley press., 1943-03-25
War
Is Not
Over

1ONDON, march %. = NOf3-
Prime Minister Churchill's aSser-
ton that Germany might" be
beaten in 1914. but possibly not be-
fore l945, has thrown cold water
on the optimists who have been
predicting an Easter invasion OF
Europe and defeat of the Nazis by
harvest time.
No one knows when the Euro
pean war may end. but it was
pointed out today that Churchill's
latest prediction is more pessimis-
tic than his previous one, and there
is no one in better position TO make
predictions than Great Britain's S
top war boss.
Speaking in the House of Com
mons on February Il, he referred
to a strong Allied shipping position
which he hoped would be attained
by the end of le44 If the war is
still going on at that time
REMOVES IF"
In the 40 days between that
speech and the one last Sunday,
Churchill had removed the IF
from his 1914 calculations.
There were three major develop
ments during that period:
!. The Russian winter offensive
abated and the Germans staged a
strong comeback to take Kharkov
.. The Germans launched their
major spring submarine campaign
and claimed the sinking OF about
three-quarters of million tons of
Allied ships in the first three weeks
of March.
3. Marshal Erwin Rommel Sue
ceeded in slowing down the Allies
in Tunisia. although the big Allied
push started just before Church
ills latest speech.
CAN'T TELL
There is no way OF telling wheth-
er these events caused any change
in the Allied timetable since its
details are a deep military secret.
However. some obvious facts can
be stated.
In describing the results of the
Casablanca conference, Churchill
said that plans for movements and
strategy were laid down there for
1.-The next nine months" Almost
one-third of that schedule already
has passed without major Allied
strategic gains.
One factor on the Allied credit
side has been the accelerated bomb
ing offensive against the European
continent. February was the heav-
lest Allied bombing month of the
war, but the weather has held down
March raids somewhat. Air gen.
erals believe that they now are hit
ting Germany with something like
the weight of night bombs needed
to cave in the Reich's Industrial
strongholds.
However, they are looking for
ward to the day when bombing will
be not only continuous, but equally
heavy day and night.
When the Americans landed IN
Africa last November. it was widely
speculated in the United States that
the winter would be devoted to
chasing Rommel out of Tunisia TO
clear the desks for spring attacks
on the soft underside" OF the
Axis.
Five months have passed, spring
has arrived in the Mediterranean
but it has become apparent that the
whacks at the soft underside" VIII
not come as early as many had
thought.
These considerations aren't pes
simistic but they appear worth
mentioning in order to get the war
picture back into clearer focus. 1t
is likewise worth emphasizing that
both Roosevelt and Churchill have
given initial priority to the war
against submarines AS long as the
Nazis can sink a considerable per-
centage of war materials they are
constantly extending the time re-
quired 10 open a great offensive
against Europe.
1t is probably not fair TO draw too
close comparisons between the Af-
rican timetable and the secret
time table for the assault on Eu-
rope. This is because the winning
side in war picks up momentum
and the losing side deteriorates
1t is generally agreed that
the Germans have started down.
hill.