Evening star., 1943-09-23
Balkan Prospects

Official confirmation of reports
that British troops have occupied
three islands off the Turkish coast
naturally intensifies speculation on
a possible Allied invasion of the
Balkans to coincide with that of
Italy. The British Ninth Army,
centered in Palestine and Syria, with
a strong outpost on the island of
Cyprus, has been built up into a
powerful striking force, while COM
plete Allied mastery of the Mediter-
ranean attained by the surrender of
the Italian Navy simplifies trans
portation problems for sea-borne ex-
peditionary forces.
1t is instructive to note that the
islands Just occupied all lie close to
the southwestern corner of Asia
Minor. Two of them, Kos and Leros,
belong to- the Italian owned group
known as The Dodecanese. The third
island, Samos, is Greek territory,
seized along with many others by
the Axis when it conquered Greece
in the spring of 1941. Most of these
islands were garrisoned by Italian
troops; so the detection of Italy from
the Axis shattered the Axis defense
system in this region. Only on the
big island of Crete, which is the key
bastion to Greece and the Aegean Sea,
is there large German garrison,
which loss of sea-power has now
Isolated except by air from the
southern tip of the Greek mainland,
only about 100 miles away.
The British have thus been able
safely to seize trio of islands at
the entrance to the Aegean, by pass
ing both Crete and Rhodes, the chief
Italian stronghold in the Dodeca-
nese. At Rhodes there is a sizable
German contingent which is re-
ported to have disarmed the Italian
troops there after stiff fighting. But
this German contingent, even more
isolated than their comrades on
Crete, is presumably not strong
enough long to withstand British
attack. Meanwhile, possession of the
excellent airfield on Kos and good
naval base at Leros put the British
In position to deal telling blows in
the Aegean area.
The question naturally arises
whether these moves betoken limited
operations against Rhodes, Crete, the
Aegean islands, and even the Greek
mainland, or whether they form part
OF major invasion of the Balkans,
perhaps launched simultaneously on
both the Aegean and Adriatic coasts.
1t should of course be remembered
that the elimination of the Italian
Navy has opened the Adriatic Sea to
Allied penetration as effectively as
it has the Aegean. The Balkans now
stand open to Allied sea-borne at
tacks on either side.
Notwithstanding this fact, it may
be doubted whether such full-scale
invasion Is imminent. For one thing,
the season Is late. Most of the
Balkans is high land, shut s0F from
the seacoasts by steep mountains
whose passes are choked with snow
from autumn until spring. This is
notably true of the Adriatic coast.
Another factor Is the German deci-
sion to defend Italy in great
strength, which spells major
struggle with the Allied invaders. 1t
is doubtful whether the Allies have
troops enough in the Mediterranean
to mount two full-scale invasions at
the same time.
A third factor working against an
Allied Balkan offensive probably
exists. This one is political rather
than strategic in character. There
Is good reason to believe that Soviet
Russia does not look favorably upon
the conquest and occupation of the
Balkans by British and American
armies. Moscow has given what ap-
pear to be clear indications that it
considers most of the Balkans within
its sphere of interest. However, that
may not apply to Greece, which is es-
sentially a peninsula jutting far
southwark into the Mediterranean
and belonging geographically to that
region rather than to the mainland
mass of Eastern Europe. Peninsular
Greece, with its mild winter climate,
could thus form part of limited
Allied operations to clear up the
eastern end of the Mediterranean
much as the conquests of Sicily
Sardinia, Corsica, and peninsula
Italy are doing at it's western and
central portions.