Evening star., 1943-11-17
BoIkun Beginning

The significance OF the big raid
staged last Sunday by medium
bombers Of the American Twelfth
Air Force on Sofia. the capital Of
Bulgaria. is enhanced by our official
announcement which calls 1t "the
beginning of the Balkan offensive"
Since then there have been other
air raids on Balkan points In Yugo-
slavia and Greece, including Athens,
to say nothing of constant hammer
ing by the RAF on Crete and other
German-held Aegean islands. which
can be considered as separate
though strategically related show.
The American raids on the Balkans
undoubtedly came from airfields in
Southern Italy, perhaps from the
great base at Foggia, which was
badly damaged by the retreating
Germans but on which repairs have
been intensively in progress. South
ern Italy is ideally situated for
sustained air campaign against the
Balkans. For instance, Sofia Is only
300 air miles from Brindisi and 400
miles from Foggia. Even Bucharest,
the Rumanian capital, and the
Ploesti oil fields are within the 600
mile radius, while Yugoslavia and
Albania, just across the Adriatic, lie
within easy fighter as we'll as bomber
range. The indications are that the
Balkans will henceforth be sub
jected to systematic Allied air at
tack from Southern Italy, while
Southern Greece and the Aegean
area will be simultaneously asSailed
by RAF squadrons from Cyprus,
Egypt and other Near Eastern bases.
Such sustained air campaign
during the winter months may we'll
have been meant by the communi-
que which called the Sofia raid "the
beginning of the Balkan offensive"
Whether it foreshadowes an Often
Sive in the sense Of major land in
vasion of the Balkans at one or
several points in the immediate
future raises a nice balancing of
probabilities which includes virtually
the entire European war theater.
To begin with, there is the oues-
ton Of a decisive invasion of West
ern Europe this autumn. So colossal
an undertaking, presumably mount
ed chiefly from the British Isles, but
possibly also from North Africa In 4
thrust at Southern France, would
automatically rule out any large
scale Allied Balkan operations be-
cause Of shipping limita tions, to say
nothing Of troop and air reserves.
Assuming that the long awaited
second front" in Western Europe
will not be opened in the climatically
unfavorable autumn-w winter season,
major Balkan operations become
much more likely. Here again, how
ever. climate imposes grave handi-
caps. The Balkan peninsula is, for
the most part, rugged plateau or
mountainous country with severe
winter climate. Only along the mar
row coastal strips Of the Adriatic
and Aegean Seas does a mild winter
climate make campaigning easy.
The Allies could presumably land
large forces at various points on the
Adriatic coast, make effective con-
tact with the guerrilla forces there,
and consolidate their positions for
drives over the mountain passes into
the interior when the deep SHOWS
melt in the spring.
Balkan invasion from the Aegean
side could not get really under way
until the Allies had taken Salonika,
the strategic gateway to the Central
Balkans up the Vardar Valley. That
was where the Allies struck success
fully in the last war. This time.
however. access to Salonika is
blocked by German control of nu-
merous island strongholds all the
way up the Aegean, and their vigor-
Gus reaction to British penetration at
Leros and other points on the outer
fringe OF the German defense sys-
tenn indicates the difficulties which
must be overcome.
OF course, there are two other pos
sibilities-the entrance of Turkey
into the war against the Axis, max
ing possible an invasion Of the Bal
kans from the Turkish European
bridgehead beyond the straits, and a
Russian invasion of Rumania and
Bulgaria. Such an invasion by sea-
borne expeditionary forces would
become more feasible after the re-
capture OF the Crimea, which NAV
soon occur. The Balkans are, in any
event. destined to be war theater
OF increasing significance.
nduefrv ~ (h;nr