Evening star., 1943-02-21
Voice From Tomb
Still Says 10 Buy
Wheat Tomorrow
But Grain Trade Myth
Not Needed as in Doys
Just After Trader Died
By the Associated Press.

By the Associated Press.
CHICAGO. Feb. 20. - Old-t time
grain spectators whose policy was
never to overlook a profit or take
loss" might hearken to a voice
from the tomb" and buy wheat
Monday.
The voice" is a legend of 36
years standing. It's generally rec
ognized as myth today, but many
veteran traders used to heed the
dates it dictated.
Acting on the myth, spectators
would buy wheat on or about Feb
ruary %. There were logical reasons
for this procedure before the grain
markets were turned topsy- -turvy by
wars, price pegging, subsidies and
Government regulations.
When Liverpool was the world
center of the grain trade, pressure
on that market usually tended to
tighten around February %, because
the peak of Southern Hemisphere
wheat shipments generally had been
reached by that date and most
traders turned their attention to
the condition of the United States
winter wheat. If crop reports were
inclined to be unfavorable, specu-
lators generally were found on the
buying side.
Voice Explained.
Thomas Temple Hoyne, a veteran
grain trader and market writer, ex-
planned the origin of the voice from
the tomb dates in 1884. He wrote:
"On February 5, 1904. Edward
A. Driver, a member of the Chicago
Board Of Trade, died. Among his
effects was found a list of dates.
setting the times to buy or sell
wheat and corn. He was not a big
speculator'; on the contrary, his
transactions were unimportant in
the volume of buying and selling
In the grain pits, but he was sue
cessful.
How Mr.. Drivers dates came to
be known as voice from the tomb"
days Is obscure, but the best ex-
PLANTATION probably was advanced
by Royal S. Bell, well known market
expert. He said they got the name
because the dates did not become
generally known until after Mr..
Driver had been buried.
Market factors have changed
considerably from Mr.. Drivers
times. The invention of the wheat
combine machine, the big increase
In Canadian grain and other foreign
acreage and governmental restric-
tions on paintings and marketings
IN all parts of the world have in
troduced new angles. Yet interest
persists.
Logic Behind Dates.
There are certain basic and valid
reasons for the buying and selling
dates selected by Mr.. Driver. He
sold wheat around January 10 be-
cause Southern Hemisphere crops
were made" and exports were size
able, tending to weaken Liverpool
prices. He sold about May 10 as
the outlook for the domestic crop
was largely determined and, If salts
factory, it would bring pressure into
the market.
He sold around September 10 be-
cause the spring wheat crop was
secured and the movement of new
wheat to market tended to develop
hedging pressure and influence
prices bearishly.
His reasons for buying were: On
July / the period for crop damage
was just ahead, there was q pickup
IN domestic -four business and the
movement of winter wheat was we'll
under way, tending to bring about
weakness which might be attractive
for friendly operations; on Novem-
Der %, domestic primary receipts
were smaller and the visible supply
was beginning to decrease, while
traders were watching developments
from southern hemisphere wheat
areas.
Bought Corn March /.
Mr.. Driver bought corn around
March ! because the country move
ment began to fall off, while the
general industrial demand for corn
tended to advance cash prices which
in turn influenced the futures
market. Around June 25, the crop
scare period developed for corn
with the possibility of dry, hot
weather during the growing period
causing damage, SO again he was on
the buying side.
He selected May 20 as a date to
sell corn because planting was COM
pleted and old corn was moving
to market; while on August 10, he
sold because the critical growing
period was usually past and if the
prospective crop was of average size,
increased offerings of old corn began
to appear which, in turn, caused
weakening of prices.