Evening star., 1943-09-26

Will the eventual defeat of Hitler's
Germany follow the pattern of the
Kaiser Wilhelms downfall in Novem-
her, 1918?
There are several basic and many su-
perf1cial similarities between the Euro
pean situation today and that of 25 years
ago. There are also many fundamental
differences, notably that the United Ma
tons, with the exception of Soviet Rus
sla, are fighting Japan, and that today
the Russians are killing more Germans
than all the other United Nations COM
bined
Although the War-Weary Germans are
approaching the fifth winter of the war,
as in 1918, it would be a mistake to try
to work out parallel time table for the
next three, six or IL months But if his
tory is repeating itself, some tentative
prospects can be outlined, such as Elmer
Davis recent warning that before the
war is over the Nazi or military leaders
Will very likely stage a 'phony revolu-
ton in an effort to arrange negotiated
peace which would save their own necks
as well as the substance of German mill
tary or industrial power.
On this point it is significant that
President Roosevelt, in his message to
Congress last week, declared that when
Hitler and the Nazls go out, the Prussian
military clique must go with them
Problem in Negotiations.
The Nazis and the Junkers have ruth
lessly crippled or suppressed all national
organizations in Germany, and there is
considerable doubt as to what group the
United Nations can deal with after the
occupation of Germany. The Commu-
nists undoubtedly have maintained an
undercover organization in Germany
and many people here and in Great
Britain fear that the Kremlin, through
its Free German Committee, will seek
to use this organization after the war
From this distance, the churches in Ger
many, Catholic and Lutheran, appear to
offer the only national organizations
with which this country and Britain can
cooperate unless some of the exile Ger
man groups receive the backing of the
German people.
The Davis prediction was based on the
sequence of events leading up to the
forced abdication of the Kaiser and the
1918 arrnistice, some of which have al
ready been duplicated, such as the un-
recent calling up of the SO to 60 year old
male Germans for military duty
A closer comparison of the 1918 and
1943 patterns will not be possible until
the German leadership, whether it be
Nazi, military, industrialist or plain
civilian, realizes the implications of
Winston Churchill's statement at a
White House press conference this sum-
mer that the United Nations would
eventually win over the Axis powers be
cause We are the stronger animal
In 1918 that realization came to the
German military command in August,
after the failure of the last desperate
drive against Paris, which began in the
spring and ended in July at the Battle
of the Marine. If at any one time, the
realization came at the breaking of the
German lines on August 8, when Luden-
dorff recognized that the tide had turned
on the western front and that if Ger
many was to be saved from Allied in
vasion, the moment had arrived to seek
negotiated peace.
Knew They Couldn't Win.
According to the German editors of
the American edition of the unexpur-
gated 'Mein Kampf," the Kaiser, few
days after, in discussing the military
situation with his generals, said:
Il see. we must add up accounts. We
have arrived at the limit of cur energies
The war must be stopped"
Less than a week later, on August IA,
the political and military leaders of the
Central Powers gathered at German
military headquarters at Spa Present
were the Kaiser, Won Hindenburg, Lud-
endorff, Chancellor Won Hertling For
eign Secretary Won Hintze, Emperor Karl
of Austria and his Foreign Minister
Burian. Ludendorff, according to his
memoirs, gave this picture to the high
ranking group:
'I reviewed the military situation, the
condition of the army and the position
of our allies, and explained that it was
no longer possible by an offensive to
force the enemy to sue for peace. De-
tense alone could hardly achieve this
object, and so the termination of the
war would have to be brought about by
diplomacy. = The Emperor was very
calm . and instructed him (Foreign
Secretary Won Hintze) to open up peace
negotiations, if possible, through the me-
dium of the Queen of the Netherlands. "
There was no mention of surrender at
this meeting of the Crown Council and
Marshal Hindenburg hoped that "it
would be possible to remain fixed on
French territory and thereby, in the end,
enforce our will upon the enemy"
Prom that date to November II, the
German military situation worsened and
civilian morale deteriorated, but there
was period of almost three months
during which the military caste was able
to put the onus for surrender on tile