Evening star., 1943-09-26
Quick Victory in War Doubted
Unless Civilian Germany Cracks
By Constantine Bro,gn.


also was most instructive for our mill.
tary strategists. The Germans brought
in three and a half divisions (some 40, 900
mem and fought bitterly for more than
week and retreated in good order only
after we managed to land more troops
in the rear and the British 9th Army
was threatening them by its quick adj
vance.
Salerno Indicated Problems.
1t Is highly doubtful that the Nazis
intended to put up more than delaying
action in that battle. They knew that
even If they compelled the 5th Army to
withdraw to the close proximity Of the
sea Allied warships and bombers were
there in such strength that they could
not score, an actual victory. The battle
ships and cruisers firing from a 10000
yard range damaged the enemy heavily
without ever being in the range of Nazi
artillery.
The severe battle for Salerno, where on
the last day we had 2iz to ground SUI
periority, complete naval superiority
and to / air superiority, showed us
what we could expect to meet on the way
north.
The Germans, under the command of
Marshal Rommel, are believed to have
between II and 10 division in Northern
Italy. This force is much superior to
the one the Allies now have in Italy.
When we capture Naples we will have
at our disposal a harbor large enough to
accommodate an entire army from North
Africa and Sicily. Through Naples we
can supply without trouble the entire
Allied force under the command of Gen.
Eisenhower.
That Army, If it were brought in.
would, of course outnumber the Nazis.
But from all indications the Germans
also are rushing reinforcements. So far
we have been able to identify two divi-5
sions which until July had been in Rus
sia. This means the Nazis, by shortening
their lines on the Eastern front, make
available number of divisions for other
fronts.
And Gen. Eisenhower cannot feel very
comfortable over the prospects that be-.
tween now and the end of November the
Nazis may add another 25 divisions to
their present force in Italy In such event
we would not have numerical superior.
ity.
Most of us have derived good deal of
comfort and a squirt of optimism over
the continued withdrawal of the Ger
mans in Russia.
Although the retreat has been pictured
in glowing terms, the best military au-
thorities in Washington do not fully
share this comfort and optimism. They
are pleased over the retreat, it's true, but
the Germans are not going back fast
enough to describe it as rout-and,
too, they are losing too little war ma
terial to please our authorities.
May Retreat to 1914 Line.
The Nazis are evacuating key positions
days before the Russians arrive to take
them. In the case of Bryansk, for in
| stance, Berlin announced the evacuation
of the city three days before the Rus
| slams entered it.
| Where the Nazis are going to stop is
anybody's guess. Some believe they will
end their orderly retreat somewhere be-
hind the Dnieper River Others believe
they may retreat much farther west to
the old Russian German boundaries of
1914
Wherever they stop is immaterial at
present. But what is obvious is that
any new front will be much shorter than
the German front of three months ago.
This means that the Nazi high command
|
will be in position to withdraw at least
80 and probably 100 divisions between
100000 and 1,5000 mem with a cor
responding number of planes and mech.
anized forces to whichever front in
Southern or Western Europe it desires
The Germans are reported to have in
the vulnerable spot of the European
fortress some 100000 to 100000 men.
Should they transfer about the same to-
tai from Russia, they would outnumber
the Allied forces. Experience has shown
us that in all military operations, par
ticularly those of an amjhibious char
acter, the attacker must have at least
2-to-1 superiority if the enemy defenses
are well organized and if the troops
which man them are willing to fight :
1t is evident that the Allied military
leaders face grave problem when the
main attack against Europe opens with
in the next year. OF course, the general
public pins its hopes on the enormous
air power that can be mustered against
the Germans and it is hoped that our
air fighters not only will soften up the
European fortress, but will be more
effective than they have been at Salerno.
Conference Will Help. So,
The Russian armies-and we all hope
they will continue to be in the war when
the general offensive is launched next
| spring-can create serious difficulties to
the Nazis. The political conference which
is scheduled for Moscow in the next few
weeks probably will straighten out many
a question which the military men are
worried about
Those drafting our future operations
in Europe are confident that we will win
(See VICTORY, Page C-3) :