Evening star., 1943-10-22
Germans in Peril
At Dnieper Bend
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot,

eeIlouS opefdtlOnAl preacn In the Ger
man defense lines along the Dnieper.
This has occurred, not at Kiev-where
fighting Is still going on-but farther
down the river, below Kremenchug.
Here the Russians seem to be firmly
established on the farther side OF the
Dnieper, and have penetrated as far
as the Kiev-Dnepropetrovsk Railway,
which they have cut.
This in itself would be serious, but the
Russians are still gaining ground to the
southwark and at last reports were only
IS miles from the iron mining center
OF Krivoi Rog. Should they reach
Krivoi Rog, the other two railways con-
Meeting Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhe
with the west would be cut This would
almost inevitably mean the capture or
destruction OF such German troops as
now occupy the Dnieper bend.
The situation is reminiscent OF Stall
ingrad, with the German forces in the
DnepropetroVsk area, and those in the
Crimea and at Melitopol, occupying the
armies at Stalingrad and in the Cau-
casus. 1t Is quite possible that the Ger
mans have again held on too long to
distant positions, and may now have to
pay the price of failure to protect their
communications.
OF course the Russian break through
at kremenchug will not have the same
completely disastrous effect as break
through at Kiev would have. 1t will
even II fully successful-be biting off
the end Of the cake, so to speak, instead
OF gobbling up the whole thing. But the
Russians may have made the best choice
OF the various courses open to them To
have thrown everything into a great
attempt to break through at Kiev might
in the end have resulted in failure,
without compensating gains elsewhere.
The Russian communications at Kre-
menchug are much better, and shorter.
than in the Kiev area. They could hit
harder at Kremenchug, and thus at least
make sure OF accomplishing something
worthwhile. 1t is quite possible that
the Germans have been unable to be
quite sure what the Russians were
doing, and that just because the Ger
man attention has of necessity been di-
vided between Kiev, Kremenchug and
Melitopol, the Russians have been able
10 achieve success at their chosen point
by suddenly increasing the pressure.
What the effect will be. il the Rus
SLAMS are able to continue their advance,
will be weighed in the number of pris-
oners that are taken. 1t would seem
probable that there are at least IS
German divisions on the lower Dnieper.
perhaps more. In addition to these
there are the troops in the Crimea to
be considered, and those defending the
Crlmean communications in the Meli-
topol area. The Crimea forces are re-
ported to be conducting hasty with
drawal by way of the Perekop Isthmus
and the railway to Nikolaev; but even
this railway has no connection with the
German forces farther west, except bv
way Of the junction at Znamenka, to
which the Russians are now ABOUT as
near on the east as they are to Krivoi
Rog from the north. On the whole it
would seem that the completion OF the
Russian effort would bag possibly as
many as 100000 German troops.
Ihls would be a blow which would
stagger the fighting power of the Wehr
macht. perhaps beyond recovery. 1t
would not be a decisive victory, but it
would be crippling wound This is
the important consideration, not the
territorial gains.
The Germans could perhaps maintain
defensive position along the River
Bug for time, and this would be in
some respects shorter and better line
than the defense of the Dnieper. The
gain OF the Crimea would be of great
strategical consequence. as previously
indicated in these articles. Neither of
these territorial changes would, however
be worthy to weigh in the balance of war
against the destruction or capture of
half million German soldiers.
The Germans seem to have lust one
chance Of saving their armies in the
Dnleper bend and in the Crimea. That
Is great counterattack in Sufficient
force to drive back the Russians south
and southeast of Kremenchug and re-
open the railway, counterattack which
can maintain its position until the whole
OF the German troops from the threat
ened areas are evacuated. This remains
at this moment, possibility, but if it
Is coming it will have to come very soon.
II Will have to come before Dneprope-
trovsk itself is captured and before the
railway functions at Krivoi Rog and
Znamenka are in Russian hands, with
plenty OF Russian troops pouring across
the Dnieper to support the Russian grip
on those positions. In other words it
will have to come before the Russians
have, in the military term, consolidated