Evening star., 1943-06-11
Jops Possibly Plan
Attack on Siberia
Major Eliot Sees Chance
Of Attempt to Help
Germany to Hold Out
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

~ NNy. NCOI yC + tC(uGLy ELLOGs
One of the gravest strains of war
time, both for the soldier and for the
civilian, is the strain of waiting We
OF the United Nations are waiting now
for good news and that eases the strain
on us little. We know that, in general,
the news we get'will be good. There
will be some bitter with the sweet-we
shall have setbacks and we shall have
heavy losses, but we are on the road
to victory. We shall do we'll not to
expect too much too quickly. That road
may yet be long and bloody one. But
we have turned the corner away from
uncertainty and terror, the initiative is
In our hands, we are the captains of
our own destinies.
With the enemy states, just the re-
verse is true. They wait for bad news;
they wait for blows to fall, blows which
they cannot be sure they have the
means to counter. They know that
they have failed in their bid for the
dominion of the world, because they
did not achieve it while their opposition
was still divided and unready They
may have local successes, they may pro-
long the agony, but for them defeat is
certain. Their one hope is to minimize
the consequences of defeat as much as
possible, by dragging out the war until
we sicken of the slaughter and grant
them some sort of negotiated peace out
of sheer war WEAKNESS.
hn
these considerations are particularly
impressive. The Japanese are we'll
aware that they are number 2 on
the list. They are we'll aware that their
geographical position makes the heart
of their empire more difficult to reach
than in the case with Germany They
know that the longer Germany can
continue to engage the major efforts
OF Great Britain, United States and
Russia, the longer Japan will have to
prepare against her own day of
reckoning
All this increases Japans interest In
the fate of Germany The worst thing
that could now happen, from the JAP
anese viewpoint, would be the swift
and decisive defeat of Germany by the
Allies. Japans hopes lie in the pro-
longation OF the war in Europe and it
is not impossible that her war lords
may be considering what they can do
TO contribute to that end.
1t may be, therefore, that the ad-
vantages and the risks of a japanese
attack on the Russian Far Eastern
provinces are again being weighed one
against another, at Toxic.
The advantages, from the Japanese
viewpoint. would be these:
Cd Russian land and air forces and
supplies, would be drawn off to some
extent from he European theater.
thus taking part of the burden of
fighting Russia off German shoulders
and enabling the Germans to make a
better and longer fight.
% If the attack succeeded the
United Nations would be deprived of
bases from which, eventually, decisive
blows might be launched against .Janan
itself.
g, 1t Is more likely that the attack
would succeed now, while Russia is
engaged with Germany, than later on
when Germany has been defeated and
Russia could turn her whole power east
ward
But the risks are very great The
greatest and most immediate risk is
OF course, that of air attack from Vladi-
Vostok and other Russian bases against
Japans center of industry and popu-
latlon. 1t may be accepted as certain
that American bombers would join in
such operations as quickly as they and
their ground equipment could reach
the Russian airfields This risk of air
attack will weigh more heavily in the
minds OF the japanese high command
IMAM any other. 1t is probably the
chief reason why Russia has not been
attacked by Japan long before this
There are, however, other risks to be
considered.
There Is strong Russian submarine
force IN the Sea of Japan, which could
inf1ict heavy losses on japanese shippinp
at a time when Japan cannot afford
losses of shipping. To send ADEQUATE
escorts into the Sea of Japan might
fatally weaken Japans naval power in
the Southwest Pacific, where storm
clouds are gathering.
war with Russia would, moreover
make heavy drains upon Japans air
power, with unforseeable consequences
in the Southwest Pacific, Burma and
China.
And, after all, the attempt might turn
out to be complete failure and result
in Russian invasion of Manchukuo and
Korea
So much for the risks From the jana
nese point of view, however, there is
also risk, and big one, in letting
the Russians sit tight in Vladivostok
until Germany is beaten. The Japa-
nese are the last people in the world
to imagine that when that is done. the
Russians will not gladly seize on the
opportunity to join their Allies in rid
ding the world of the Japanese menace.
So at Toxic now they must be weigh
ing their chances, asking themselves
whether they can take the Maritime
province In quick dash and thus put
an end to the bombing before it has
done irreparable harm perhaps arguing
themselves into the view that to trv
1t is their only chance, and, as ALWAYS.
oVerestimating their own fighting power
and Understanding that of their op
ponents.
1t has never been the Japanese way