Evening star., 1943-01-26
The U-Bout Threat

Never have the shifting fortunes
or global war been better exemplified
than in the contrast between the
current situations on land and at
sea. In Russia, North Africa and the
South Pacific the trend strongly
tavorS the United Nations. But on
the vital sea lanes between the New
Woyld and the Old, different situa-
ton exists. There, the German
U-boats take so frightful a toll of
merchant shipping that the entire
strategic picture is potentially COM
promised.
The U-boat menace has existed
from the very start of the war, but
there has been a tendency to conceal
its gravity. This has lulled public
opinion on both sides of the Atlantic.
Now, London and Washington seem
to have adopted a franker policy
During the past fortnight several
official statements have brought
home the seriousness of the shipping
situation and all that it implies.
The growing menace of the sub
marine is stressed in no uncertain
terms by authoritative British and
American official spokesmen. Last
week, A. V. Alexander, First Lord of
the Admiralty, told the men of the
Royal Navy that 1s43 will be a crucial
year in the war at sea, with Great
Britain facing "the greatest attacks
on our sea communications in his
tory. The enemy" he added, SIS now
using new U-boats in larger packs
and with new tactics" Here in
Washington, Admiral Sir Percy
Noble, former commander of anti
submarine warfare in Britain, and
Elmer Davis. director of the Office
OF War Information, made Joint
statements on the gravity of the
situation, acknowledging that sink
ings were rising despite protective
measures. Calling for escort YES
sells, more escorts, and yet more
escorts" Admiral Noble stated: "It
will take all our strength, all our de-
termination, and all our initiative to
overcome the danger of the U-boats.
Unless we beat the U-boats, we are
in danger Of losing our sea power
and the war"
What are the known facts of the
problem? According to the best in
formation available to the layman,
Germany has given submarine con-
struction an absolute priority and is
turning them out at the amazing
rate of one per day, or approximately
thirty per month. That is at least
twice as fast as we and our Allies are
sinking them. Most sinkings occur
at sea. Damage to U-boats under
construction o. in harbor is thought
to be negligible, because the Germans
have erected concrete domes over
their yards and bases of such
enormous thickness that they are
virtually immune to aerial bombing.
BY spring, 1t is estimated that the
U-boat fleet will number between
500 and 700. That is the moment
when naval strategists believe Adolph
Hitler will launch his submarine
armada in an all-out effort to cut
the Allied sea lanes, comparable in
fury to his attempt to knock out
Britain by air two years ago.
Although London and Washington
have alike ceased to give detailed re-
ports Of ship sinkings, some general
facts have been revealed. The esti-
mated Allied ship losses for 1912 are
not greatly below the claims of the
German high command, which an
nounced at New Year that nearly
100000 tons had been sunk by
U-boats last year. During the late
summer and early autumn, sinkings
apparently decreased. but they have
mounted recently and are now run
ming at about 100000 tons monthly,
with the curve still rising. That is
rate in excess of the combined
construction by American and Brit
ish shipyards. In other words, we
are at present losing the war at sea,
though our rate of construction is
mounting and we have succeeded in
effectively protecting major conveys
by an elaborate system of escort
vessels and airplane coverage. The
trouble is that, in a war extending
over the seven seas, such protection
cannot be universal. So, for the
moment, we must make the best of
a bad business until perfected meth
DDS turn the tide, as happened in the
last war.