Evening star., 1943-09-18
The Red Drive Rolls On

he ked Drive kollS On
The mighty Russian offensive has
entered its third consecutive month
with a sustained momentum which
not even the scattered beginnings of
the autumn rains have noticeably
checked. Over fully two thirds of
the vast eastern front, from Smo-
lensk southwark clear to the Axis
bridgehead in the Caucasus, the Red
armies move forward at varying
rates of speed, and the indications
are that the hitherto quiet segment
of the front from Smolensk to Len
ingrad on the Baltic will likewise
soon be involved
The German side of the picture is
one of continuous though orderly
retirement. Nowhere, except at
Taganrog on the Sea of Azov, does
any considerable body of Axis troops
seem to have been cut off and de-
stroyed. However, the German re-
treat is nearing certain key points
which they must hsld. at least for
time, to insure the evacuation of
some regions, especially in the far
south. The most interesting aspect
of German strategy is just where,
when, and for how long, their high
command intends to make definite
stand against the advancing enemy.
The fall of Novorossisk is of
especial interest for future develop
ments in the military situation. This
excellent port on the Black Sea has
been the chief bastion of the Cau-
casus bridgehead to which the Ger
mans have clung tenaciously. Besides
giving them a springboard for a
possible counteroffensive in the Cau-
casus, this bridgehead also protects
the Crimean peninsula which lies
just over the narrow Kerchenski
Strait. A still more serious threat
to German retention of the Crimea
is the Russian advance through the
Southern Ukraine, which is now less
than fifty miles from the vital rail-
way running southwark from the
great bend of the river Dnieper. That
is the only rail line into the Crimea.
Once that is cut, the Germans will
have only a road over the narrow
1sthmus of Perekop to get supplies
to the Crimean garrison or insure its
retreat in case evacuation is decided
on. Indeed, unless the Germans
make stand east of the railway,
. their loss Of the Crimea becomes
almost a foregone conclusion. In
that case, they will undoubtedly re-
tire everywhere behind the river
Dnieper. That will be a formidable
water barrier, but it bends so sharply
to the westward in its lower reaches
that It's Black Sea mouth Is not far
from Odessa, which is almost on the
Rumanian border.
Farther to the northward, the
most significant Russian gains are
the storming of the Desna River line
beyond captured Bryansk and the
portentous spearhead driven to with
in sixty miles of Kiev, the key to the
German communications system in
the Ukraine. Kiev lies on the west
bank of the middle Dnieper. The
Germans must hold it at all costs.
From Kiev the Dnieper runs due
north almost to Smolensk. While
not so broad as in its lower reaches,
it forms the only strong defense line
for the Germans in Central Russia.
Once it is preached at any point,
there is no geographical obstacle
save the extensive Pinsk marshes,
which straddle the Russo-Polish
frontier.
The German high command is un-
doubtedly counting on the autumn
rains to slow down the Red advance.
This wet season normally lasts about
six weeks, from late September until
early November. During that period
the ordinary Russian roads become
ribbons of deep mud, so heavy equip
ment must move chiefly by rail.
Furthermore, the Russians must re-
build the rail lines captured by them,
which involves not merely change
of gauge but also wholesale replace
mentS of ties sawed off close by the
Germans. The way in which the
Russians have thus far kept their
supply system up with their advanc-
ing armies is an amazing perform
ance. On the continuance of this
logistic miracle the Red offensive
largely depends.
Canadian Arn,v Chnnnee