Evening star., 1943-01-27
Russians Soon May
Shut Caucasus Trop
Militory Writer Speeulotes
On Danger of Germons
In Black Seq Area
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.


The Germans appear, as was to be
expected, to be making extraordinary
efforts to hold fast along the Donetz
River. There are no signs that the
Russians have been successful in ex-
panding their one bridgehead on the
south side of the Donetz at Kamensk,
or effecting a break through at any
other point. The Russian armies astrde
the lower Don directly east of Rostov,
do not seem to be advancing.
Up to the present, therefore, the i'm
mediate defenses of Rostov to the north
and east seem to be holding This is
undoubtedly the result of the arrival Of
reinforcements from Germany and Gen.
trail Europe and Is an indication OF Ger
man appreciation of the seriousness of
the strategical position in South Russia
South of Rostov, however, in the North
Caucasian area, the situation OF the
German armies grows worse almost
hourly. The fall of the railway functions
at Salsk and Armavir on successive days
has greatly restricted German freedom
Of action. The German armies are grad
ually being crowded into the western
part OF the North Caucasian area and
are in very grave danger OF being cut
off from their best line Of supply and
Of retreat by way OF Rostov.
After taking Salsk the Russian troops
under Col. Gen. Yeremenko appear to
have to split into two columns, one
advancing westward along the branch
line toward Rostov, the other southwest
ward toward the junction Of Tikhoretz.
where the Stalingrad-Novoro rail-
way crosses the Baku-Rostov railway.
Meanwhile the army of 1t. Gen. Mas
lennikov is pushing from Armavir toward
Kropotkin, a junction Of two important
branch lines with the main line Of the
Baku- -Rostov railway The early fall OF
Kropotkin appears certain and when this
has been accomplished, Tikhorotsk will
be threatened from this direction also
But it is to be noted that at last reports
Gen. Yeremenko was only 40 miles from
Tikhoroetsk and If he gets there while
the Germans are still fighting Gen. Mas
lennikov in the vicinity Of Kropotkin,
the whole German force in that area will
be cut off and surrounded, except for
the possibility OF retiring straight west
ward toward Krasnodar and the Strait
of Kerch.
Moreover, should Tikhoretz fall to the
Russians, all the German troops around
Krasnodar and those fighting the Rus
slams on the Black Sea coast and the
garrison OF the Maikop oil fields will be
cut off from Rostov except by the use
OF one branch line railway which reaches
the main line at Kruschevskaya, about
so miles south of Rostov.
So far there is nothing to indicate
whether the Germans are intending to
make a. determined stand anywhere in
this general region. Gen. Yeremenko's
advance has to all intents and purposes
turned the line of the kuban, which
Gen Maslennikov seems likely to breach
at Kropotkin within the immediate fu-
ture. There are no other good defensive
terrain features between the Kuban and
Rostov, but 1t might be possible for the
Germans to think of holding q small
area covering Krasnodar, Novorossisk
and the Tamensk Peninsula. This, in
deed, may be their plan and, If so, the
general Axis retreat of their Caucasian
forces will be westward rather than
northwestward. II this is the case, 1t
should be apparent within the next few
days. Some color is lent to this view
by reports that coastal points on the
Black Sea now in German hands are
crowded with troops and supplies and
are becoming targets for Russian air
bombardment.
Renewed activity by the Russian Black
Sea feet can also, In this case, be antici-
pated. A number of ships of this feet
are still in being at the Russian ports Of
Tuapse, Poti and Batum. The Black
Sea feet has repeatedly shown It's pro-
fciency in amphibious operations and
might now be used by the Russians to
cover landing Of Russian troops in
tended to cut off the German retreat or
to attack their forces from the rear
The success of such move would, as in
all amphibious operations, depend on
Russian ability to establish air superior
ity at the point OF landing.
1t would require considerable volume
OF merchant shipping, and the amount
OF serviceable shipping which still re-
mains in Russian hands in the Black
Sea is unknown. All in all, however,
increased activity by Russian land, sea
and air forces along the Black Sea
coast is now increasingly likely and may
become a decisive factor as the Ger
mans are crowded ever more tightly be-
tween the advancing Russian armies
and the sea-
(Copyrisht. 194S. New York Tribune. Inc)