Evening star., 1943-09-14
Balance Tips Against
Germans on Land
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.


Nations. Today we may examine the
shift in the balance of land power on
the continent of Europe, likewise in
favor of the United Nations.
A year ago, as the Germans fought
before Stalingrad and at the gates of
Alexandria, Secretary of War Stimson
pointed out to the American people that
theater of war numbered almost 500
divisions An unoficial estimate at that
time divided these as follows: 800 Ger
mans, IS Italian, 18 Bulgarian, II Finnish,
Croat 2 Slovak Is Rumanian, IA Hun
garian, and the Spanish Blue division;
total of 483 divisions.
Today, how greatly has this total been
diminished! The Italian Army is lost to
Germany; its remnants are, indeed, fight
ing against Germany. The Rumanian
and Hungarian Armies have been all
but destroyed in Russia; Germany can
count on no more military aid from
those sources. The value of the Bulgarian
Army to Germany remains decidedly I'M
certain to say the least. The Firms
can perhaps be counted on to continue
to oppose any Russian invasion of their
territory, but for nothing more, and
Finland is certainly trying to get out
of the war If anything like acceptable
terms can be arranged. Panic is re-
ported sweeping Slovakia, and the Blue
division almost certainly will go home
to Spain. Finally, of the German Army
itself, at least 20 divisions have been
lost IN Tunisia and at Stalingrad. The
German Army today can count on per-
haps 800 divisions OF its own, plus a few
Croat divisions useful mainly for police
and garrison duty in the Balkans. Even
If events prove that it also can count on
the Bulgars, the German power in Eu-
rope has been cut by one-third in the
course Of single year.
Meanwhile, the fighting strength OF
Germany's enemies has increased very
greatly. The Russians have, of course,
sustained severe casualties but probably
not as heavy casualties as the Germans
during this past year. On the other
hand, the Russian armies have gained
In experience, have passed from the
ability to defend stoutly to the ability
to stage major offensives on the greatest
possible scale. The Russian Army of
today Is much more formidable even
than the Russian Army of last autumn.
Some new divisions have been added
to 1t; how many is uncertain. But 1t
seems likely that the Russians are able
to keep in the field 250-275 divisions,
with large number of replacement
and training divisions behind the lines
as well.
In the British Isles a large Anglo
American army is growing. The train
Ing OF the British troops has progressed,
and fresh increments of American and
Canadian troops are arriving.
In the Mediterranean-where a year
ago the sum total of Allied land power
was represented by the British 9Th Army
OF perhaps eight divisions-there are now
five Allied armies: The 1st and 9Th Brit
ish. the 5th and 7th American and the
French Army Of Africa. Besides these,
there are IN the Middle East Gnstead of
the scattered detachments of year ago)
the British 9th and 10th Armies, and the
new Polish Army. Just how many divi-
sions these armies may include, we are
not informed; but certainly the number
is much greater than the eight divisions
OF last September.
The German resources have been
strained to the utmost to meet this situa-
ton. During the winter, the Germans
scraped the very bottom of their man
power barrel to get recruits for their
fighting forces to make up for the fright
full losses of the Russian campaign. They
combed out industry and agriculture for
German men, replacing them with
women, boys and slave or imported labor.
They cannot do that again. There are
no more German requirements to be had,
and from now on losses to the German
armies are net losses, entailing the reduc-
ton of the number Of divisions, or of
the strength Of existing divisions
It was like that in 1918 Battalions
fell away to the strength of companies,
and regiments to the strength Of small
battalions. One German division was
found to have an infantry component Of
only four rifle companies of 80 men each,
Its normal complement being 27 rife
companies Of $50. Under these circum-
stances, wastage tends to be cumulative.
Thus on August 8, 1918, when the Allies
definitely and finally passed to the offen-
sive on the western front, the Germans
had 68 divisions in reserve OF which %
were fresh. (Their reserve today, in
cluding all the troops in Western Europe,
Is probably no greater). On September
IL, the Germans still had 6s divisions in
reserve, but only IA were fresh. On Octo-
Der /, they had 81 divisions in reserve, OF
which IA were fresh. On November l,
they had still 81 in reserve, but only S
were fresh. On November II, 1918, they
had only II divisions In reserve, OF which
but were fresh.
The conditions are not quite the same
this time. and we need not expect
SO swift decline in German fighting
powers. For one thing, the weather is
about to bring them respite in Russia:
for another, they have more depth on
their main front, more chance OF giving
up territory in order to gain time than
they had in 1918 But the trends are
similar, and the results will be the same
in the end, though they probably will be
longer in coming to the final point where
the German Army no longer can find any
reserves at all.
Copyright, 1e43, New York Tribune, Inc)