Evening star., 1943-08-17
Is Italy Next?

the Allied conquest of Sicily Is
almost complete. Will the victors
promptly pursue the beaten foe
across the Strait of Messina, a stretch
of water only trifle wider than the
Hudson River at Manhattan, and
begin a large-scale invasion of Italy
itself?
A glance at a Typographical map
raises doubt that this will be done.
The "toe" of the Italian boot which
nudges Sicily is mass of mountains
more rugged and jumbled than those
of the adjacent island. Almost
everywhere they rise directly from
the sea, with at most narrow rib
bon OF shore-line. This "toe" is mar
row, averaging only about 20 miles in
width, and extends fully 100 miles
before 1t merges into the bulk of the
peninsula. That means a gruelling
advance against a series OF fixed
positions, where few determined
troops could make the invaders pay
dearly. And after the toe was taken,
nearly $50 miles more of mountain
Gus terrain would have to be nego-
tiated before the Allied advance
would debouch into the coastal plain
around Naples, Southern Italy's
metropolis. Even then, Rome would
lie 100 miles more to the northWard.
Topography thus discourages an
overland invasion from the Straits
OF Messina against any organized
resistance. A much more favorable
invasion point is the "heel" of Italy,
the elongated peninsula known as
Apulia. Here the land is mostly fat,
open country, becoming hilly as one
goes northward along the Adriatic
coast until, about opposite Naples,
the mountains which form the back
bone of the Italian peninsula again
near the seaboard. Thenceforward,
the going would be tough again.
The lay of the land thus renders
Apulia less an invasion gateway to
Italy itself than base for operations
against the Balkan peninsula, which
lies just across the narrow bottle
neck of the Adriatic Sea. The Balkan
side of the Adriatic is, however, ex-
tremely mountainous, with only a
few practicable gateways to the in
terror. 1t is true that the Allied in
vaders would have the support of
Yugoslav, Albanian and Greek guer-
rillas, yet the military problem would
not be easy and the mountains will
soon be drenched with autumn rains
and blanketed by winter SHOWS.
Since the Allies command the
Mediterranean and could presumably
control the Adriatic after taking
Apulia, landings on both sides of the
Italian peninsula north of Rome are
strategically possible. There. how
ever, they would probably run into
strong German resistance Since the
fall of Mussolini. large German
forces have been repeatedly pouring
across the Alps to buttress Northern
Italy against an Allied invasion.
This implies the necessity for large
Allied invasion force to expel the
Germans And even then the Allies
would find themselves blocked by
formidable natural barriers to an
invasion of either the Northern
Balkans or Austria across the Bren-
ner Pass. Meanwhile. Italy and it's
forty million people would become a
charge upon Allied supply lines for
much of its food, fuel and other vital
necessities. That would be a serious
offset to the use of italian air bases
for bombing parts of Central Europe
now out of effective range for Allied
raiders.
This rather discouraging strategi-
cal survey, of course, implies that the
Allies would encounter effective re-
sistance. The prospect would nat
urally be altered II a popular revolt
should render the German tenure OF
Northern Italy so precarious that
their expulsion would be an easy
matter. Such a development may be