Evening star., 1943-11-20
What Will Turkey Do?

Aegean islands she seized two
months ago stimulates discussion of
Turkeys attitude The islands are
close to Turkish Asia Minor. They are
being lost mainly because they are
too far from Allied air fields to have
been accorded adequate fighter plane
protection. Literally within gunshot
are air bases which cannot be used
because Turkey is neutral. So long
as that neutrality persists, the ejec-
tion Of Germany from its strongholds
in the Aegean Sea will be difficult
and costly Allied mastery of the
Aegean is the logical prerequisite to
both an invasion Of the Balkans via
Salonika and the opening of the
seaWay to the Dardanelles. Tur-
keys entrance into the war on the
Allied side would greatly facilitate
those objectiveS and would likewise
open direct overland invasion route
into the Balkans through Bulgaria.
1t is an open secret that Turkey
is being put under increasing pres
sure to abandon its neutrality, at
least to the extent which Portugal
recently did when she put her Azores
bases at Allied disposal. That of
course, would be legally a breach of
neutrality which would expose Tur-
key to German reprisals, and it is
most unlikely that Berlin would
condone it as it did Portugal's action
because Lisbon was beyond it's effec-
tive reach. The Turks are justified
in believing, therefore, that there is
no middle way; that the granting of
air or sea bases to the Allies would
involve them fully in the war.
Notwithstanding this practical
certainty, the air is full of rumors
that Turkey will soon take the
plunge. The most noteworthy of
these is a current dispatch from the
Associated Press representative at
Ankara, the Turkish capital. This
dispatch, delayed a day in trans
mission but finally passed by the
Turkish censor, asserts categori-
cally: Turkey is giving subrose as
sistance to the Allied armed forces
that closely approximates that
which the United States gave to
Britain in the months before Pearl
Harbor, and is moving toward war
with the Axis. The secret aid, de-
tails of which cannot be disclosed
is rapidly carrying the nation to-
ward a war footing. There is little
doubt that her course has been set
and that Turkey will become a full
1edged fighting member of the
United Nations, probably by spring"
On the other hand, the same edi-
ton of our newspapers carries an
article by Pertinax. the pen name
OF a Well-knoWn French authority on
world affairs, who asserts with equal
deflniteneSs: Turkey does not in
tend to enter the war" and goes on
to analyze the dangers to Turkey
which an abandonment of neutral
ity would entail. Pertinax claims in
side information that British For
elgn Secretary Anthony Eden's con-
versations with the Turkish Foreign
Minister at Cairo recently did not
suffice to change Turkish foreign
policy, largely because Britain could
or would give no guarantee against
Russian claims for use of the Straits
in derogation of Turkish Sovereign
ty, but also because Britain might
not be able to protect Turkey against
German attacks.
Whatever Ankara may do ulti-
mately. its failure to give assistance
to the hard-pressed British garri-
sons on the Aegean islands, or to
permit any use of its air fields for
such purposes, does not indicate that
Turkey will jeopardze it's neutral
status in the immediate future.
Germany's recovery of complete
Aegean dominance puts Turkey at
an added disadvantage against Ger
man air attacks. Furthermore, the
Turkish people seem to be still de-
sirous of remaining neutral, and no
official efforts are being made to
change the popular point of view.
Despite current rumors, therefore,
it would be wise to 60 on the assump-
ton that Turkish neutrality will
persist under the conditions which
now prevail.