Evening star., 1943-04-25
Prosperity or Depression
After the War
By ODen L. Scott.

4icIe 10 widespread view CIldC a
business boom, assuring prosperity for
all, is to follow this war. Predictions
are heard of new industries, of light
metals age, of spending on a scale that
will assure all the jobs that war is as
suring.
But the first official studies of postwar
problems do not bear out the optimism
Of popular predictions Two of those
studies, made independently OF each
other, one by New Deal source and one
by non-New Deal source, arrive at the
conclusion that the war is to be followed
by an unemployment problem as acute
or more acute than the one that pre-
ceded the war.
Even assuming a boom demand for
civilian goods, on the basis of these
studies, unemployment will be on large
scale, forcing the Government to try
again to create jobs by one means or
another, as when President Roosevelt
started his make work" program in
1888.
One Of the economic surveys begins
With the assumption that the level of
business activity will fall back after the
war to the 1910 level when the national
income was about $4,000, 100000. On
the basis of that assumption it arrives
at the conclusion that there will be net
loss OF jobs in industry of more than
100000 compared with wartime levels.
Then it finds that the Nations labor
force will have increased permanently
during the war by at least $500, 900,
owing to the net gain of young people
entering the labor market offset against
older people leaving the labor market
and owing, too, to an increase in the
number of women who will want to con-
tlnue working. Then another 5000 900
men will be expected to re-enter the Job
market as the Army and Navy demobilize
from the 100000 level they are ex-
pected to reach this year.
Here, then, is a potential unemploy-
ment of 100000 for postwar years un-
less means can be found to assure a
level of business activity far higher than
the level of prewar.
The second of the economic SURVEYS
public demand for new cars, new re-
frigerators, new clothes, new furniture.
new homes and other new things will be
all that the optimists expect This ad-
mittedly will be boom level But owing
to Increased efficiency of industry and
to many other causes, this survey comes
up with the conclusion that on a most
NNtiniStjn hQ QciS fhoro will ho Il
charge of at least 100000 workers from
manufacturing industry alone Then it
expects that a minimum of 100000 will
be demobilized from the services and
Government will give up 100000 work.
ers SO that at least 15500000 persons will
have to be placed in new work if unem-
ployment is to be avoided on big scale.
Both studies recognize that there will
be vast pentup demand for goods once
the war ends and that the public will
have very many billions of dollars to
spend. But very serious unemployment
problenl-With all that means in the way
OF demands for great new Government
Investments foreseen by both.
There are two views of how this prob
lem may be met in the postwar period.
One view, popular with some officials
right now, is that the United States can
find prosperity in vastly increased for
eign lending and in rehabilitation of
parts of the world and new development
in other parts. They place emphasis
upon the possibility of greatly expanded
foreign trade, financed by world bank
and encouraged by removal of tariff
barriers. Demand for American products
coming from abroad is counted upon to
create so much activity that industry will
be able to find places for the millions
now engaged in war work and in mill
tary service.
The second view, held by many who
helped to guide the New Deal, is that
this country can be saved from a post
war unemployment problem only by a
planned program of Government-guided
investment at home. Those who hold
this view are unimpressed by the pros
pect Of developing a volume of foreign
trade large enough to assure domestic
prosperity unless that trade is on an
outright gift basis. They insist that the
range Of goods that the United States
needs to import from abroad is too mar
row to support any vast volume Of two
way trade
This country during war is discovering
that 1t can produce colossal volume of
goods. It's rate of production is twice
that of peacetime even when a great
army of workers is modified for military
service. The postwar problem will be
one of finding markets for peacetime
goods produced on scale comparable
to wartime production of both armament
and civilian goods. The size of that
problem already is somewhat staggering
the planners.