Evening star., 1943-02-01
Sees Russion Drives
Shifting North
Military Writer Points Out
Thut BoIonce Sheet Is
Heavy Against Germons
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

It is beginning to look as though the
Germans in Russia are about to lose
all the gains of their summer offensive.
They are still holding the line of the
Donet7 but to the north the Russians
are going ahead in the Voronezil sector.
clearing up the region between the
Oskol and the Upper Don, while to the
south the relentless advance of Yere-
nlenko and Maslennikov continues In the
Caucasus.
Tikhoretz has gone the way Of Kro-
potkin and Armavir; only the branch
line through Krusheyskaya now con-
meets the army OF the Caucasus with
Rostov and in Kruschevskaya at this
moment the German sentries must be
straining their ears for the first rumble
Of Yeremenko's guns.
Meanwhile, the thrust from the west
ern Caucasus is getting under way and
has retaken Maikop, the one tangible
asset the Germans acquired in all their
Caucasian operations 1t looks very much
as though the Germans would be unable
to retain even meager foothold In
the Caucasian area, and it looks very
much as though the steel ring Of Russian
armies was closing In on Rostov
So far so good. Let us suppose that
the remaining German positions in the
Caucasus are liquidated. and that Rostov
Is regained by the Russians. Then
what will be the overall picture on the
Russian front?
It Is roughly this: The Germans will
be back where they started last summer.
Not quite, Of course. They will have a
net gain in Sevastopol, net losses in
Velikie Luki and Schluesselburg. For
their labors and casualties Of the CAM
they have wrought to the industries OF
the Donetz Basin. of Rostov itself and
Of Stalingrad. But the balance sheet
Is otherwise heavily against them. for
there can be no question that In dead
and wounded In prisoners, and in
losses Of military material, the cost Of
the campaign to them has far exceeded
the cost to the Russians.
It will, however, be in the field OF
morale and prestige that the Germans
will have lost most heavily For the
first time since the war began a great
German land operation has not only met
decisive and unmistakable defeat, but
has been rolled back to its starting
point. with heavy losses of prisoners and
weapons.
This is not said in deprecation Of
what the British have done In Africa.
but there the Germans had the excuse
Of poor communications and scanty
In full-scale war, with all the resources
Of Germany available to sustain the
armies that suffered the defeat. It
would be easy to explain what happened
In Africa, from the viewpoint Of German
internal morale; 1t will be impossible to
find any satisfactory explanation for
what has happened in Russia.
But 1t would likewise be a mistake
for any one to assume that this is final
and complete defeat for Germany. or
that the Russian Armies are now going
to begin triumphant march which will
carry them clear to the Unter Den
Linden. They are a long way from
Berlin as yet.
Let us try to examine the position
from the Russian point of view, assum-
ing the Germans to be back at their
winter line Of last year There is
some reason TO think that having cleared
Rostov and the Donetz Basin, the Rus
SLAMS might continue the pressure in
the direction OF Kursk and Kharkov,
but what they actually do in those
areas seems likely to depend on the
determination with which they are
resisted
II the Germans show signs of crack
Ing. the Russians may 90 ahead But
I should think it very possible that the
main weight of the Russian offensive
might be shifted to the north. In the
north the Russians have two very con-
siderable advantages-the raising of the
siege Of Leningrad and the capture Of
Velikie Luki. In the north, also, they
are much closer to actual German ter
ritory than in the SOUTH and the Firms
are clearly wavering in their allegiance
to their Nazi alliance.
The Russians might very well, there
fore. concentrate their next effort on
smashing once and for all the stubborn
German resistance In Rzhev, and in the
twin fortresses of Lake Ilmen-Novgo-
rod and Staraya Russo. Having done
this, they could look forward to clearing
most Of the shore of the Gulf of Fin
land. and perhaps regaining Smolensk
and the line of the Dvina
It is doubtful whether the Germans
have sufficient reserves to make good
their Northern positions and there
might be general withdrawal before
heavy Russian pressure. Meanwhile, in
the south, the major Russian operation
might be repetition of last winters
campaign for the recovery of the Crimea.
which, II successful, would enable the
Russians to resume their old mastery
OF the Black Sea, and might by land
compel a German withdrawal behind
the Dnieper
The great point to be kept in mind
Is the position next year Will the
Germans be able, as their leaders prom
Use, to resume the offensive against
Russia? 1t would hardly seem so. from
the material and manpoWer point of
view alone. But the Russians may we'll
mean to make sure. by depriving their
enemies OF the strategica positions
which would make such an offensive
possible, and for their own part re-
gaining as much lost territory as they
can, not only for its own sake, but In
order that they may set about improv-