Evening star., 1943-11-09
German Retreat
May Be d Rout
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

The Russians seem to be striking for
decisive results in their new break
through OF the Dnieper line at Kiev.
This Is the new element" which, in my
article of November 8, I suggested
seemed to be imminent In 4 situation
which was then temporarily deadlocked.
II the Russians, as reported, really have
moved Is divisions and three armored
corps into the battle front southwest
OF Kiev, the Germans are once more
confronted by the imminence of q great
disaster.
The fall Of Fastov is the fact of i'm
mediate importance This railway juno
tion controls the important east west
line, Lwow- -Berdichev-Kiev, and the
branch OF that line which swings south
east at Fastov to Dnepropetrovsk. These
are both heavy duty, double-track lines,
and the Fastov- -Dnepropetrovsk railway
has been the principal supply artery for
the German troops in the bend of the
Dnieper, and in the general area of
Krivoi Rog and Nikolaev, connecting di-
rectly with the German supply depots
1T Berdichev and Jitomir II the Rus
slams can hang on to Fastov, 1t would
seem almost certain that the Germans
can no longer maintain the scale of
counterof1ensive effort which has en-
abled them to hold Krivoi Ros and the
znamenka- -Nikolaev railway, which
means in effect that they will have to
get out Of all these positions while the
getting is good
There are two other railways from
Germany and Poland which enter the
Dnleper bend area. These are both
single-track lines, of considerably less
capacity than the one through Fastov
An advance from Fastov Of about so
miles southwest to Kazatin would cut
one OF them: 4 further advance OF 50
more miles In the same direction. to
Jmerinka, would cut the other Should
this happen, the Germans still east Of
Odessa would be hopelessly cut of.
There. Is another consideration Of
growing Importance. The Russians al
ready have cut the main railway linking
German and Polish points with the
Dnieper bend area. This tends to bend
back the left nank Of the German South
ern Army group toward the Dniester and
the Rumanian frontier. 1t tends to push
the Germans away from their normal
line OF retreat and OF supply toward
Rumania. II the Kazatin line Is cut.
the lines through Rumania will be even
more important to the Germans II the
Jmerinka line is cut, they will have no
place to 60 except Rumania The effect
OF all this In Rumania is profound.
Remember that Rumania is not occupied
by great German armies; very far from
1t. There are not enough German troops
70 occupy all the satellite countries
some OF them are very much "on their
own'-and Rumania, among others. has
been characterized by Marshal Stain As
looking around In the bushes for
chance to slip away from the bandit
gang and hide Under these conditions
and facing the certainty Of ultimate
German defeat, can we imagine that 4
beaten and retreating German Army
would be 4 welcome guest In Rumania7
Or that all the facilities-railways, food.
hospitals, airnelds-of that country
would be instantly and fully placed at
German disposal7
Hardly. OF course, the Rumanians NAV
not be able to prevent the Germans
from retiring into their country. The
Germans are still strong enough TO take
over Rumanian facilities by force. But
the force they will have to use for such
purposes is = subtraction from the force
With which they can face the Russians,
1t Is certainly to be expected that the
Germans will try to stabilize their south.
ern front on the Bug River, In order
not to have to withdraw behind the
Dniester, that is, across the Rumanian
frontier. They may be able to do 50.
1t is too early to be sure and the Ger
mans have so far escaped from several
situations which contained in their in
itial stages all the elements OF German
disaster. Probably their ability to make
= stand on the Bug will depend on their
possession of sufficient reserves for coun-
terattacks at the moment when the Rus
slams become overextended, as they must
become In due course. But there is. in
the Russian front reports, 4 hint Of 4
condition not previously encountered in
German retreats. There is a suggestion
OF German rout. We have not seen 4
German rout in Russia II one is cc-
curing now, the break in morale may
spread. In that case. anything can
happen.
tcopyrisht. 1a4a, BY New York Tribune Incl