Evening star., 1943-07-06
Eastern Front FIure-up

Germans have opened big offensive
south of the Soviet capital comes as
an unexpected break in the pro-
longed lull that had settled over
the eastern front. It caught nearly
every one by surprise. since July had
been widely assumed to be the cli-
matte deadline for an Axis offensive,
the experience of the two previous
years having shown that the brief
Russian summer was needed in its
entirety for mechanized warfare to
attain maximum results before it
was begged down in the autumn
rains.
We still do not know whether this
is a true offensive in the strategic
sense or whether 1t Is large-scale
tactical action designed to better the
German position for defensive STRAIT
egy during the coming winter. The
spot chosen for the German blow
may we'll indicate the latter alterna-
tive. The sectors involved stretch
from Orel to Belgorod. Between
those two Axis-held key points the
Russians last winter punched huge
blunt salient approximately 100 miles
wide and 100 miles deep. This salient
cuts the main railway line between
Orel and Belgorod, and is a standing
threat to the stability of the whole
Axis position in Central Russia. For
months. both sides have been con-
centrating enormous forces in this
supremely strategic area, and it was
unlikely that the summer would pass
without at least a local test Of
strength. There have been no signs
that the Germans were withdrawing
any part OF their ground forces from
the eastern front, and these were
known to total at least 100 German
and % satellite divisions-over 4,00O,-
900 men. Russian conference.-the
tions are believed to be fully as nu-
merous. The stage was therefore set
militarily for another titanic death
grapple between the worlds two most
formidable war machines.
If the present fighting remains To-
Called, there should be no necessity
for the German high command to
draw on the forces assigned to de-
fend Western Europe, Italy and the
Balkans from potential Anglo-Amer-
lean invasions. 1t should not be for
gotten that the tremendous national
mobilization begun in Garmany late
last year at the time of the Stain
grad disaster combed out at least
100000 men from business and in
dustry. This created a new reservoir
OF manpower which has been fed
steadily into the armed forces, filling
the ranks of depleted units and Gre
ating fresh units as well. Germany
probably has more men in uniform
today than ever before, though the
average quality is lower. BY autumn,
the Reich may dispose of 400 divi-
sions, not counting italian and satel-
lite troops. There are thus ample
German ground forces to cover po-
tential fronts from Norway to the
Balkans and conduct a limited Of
fensive in Russia. But Axis man
power would probably not suffice for
all needs if the present localized
fighting should develop into an all
out struggle with the Red armies.
Undoubtedly Moscow will now re-
double its demands for a fullscale
Anglo American invasion of western
Europe, and our recent successes over
the U-boats with consequent safe
guarding of the Atlantic sea lanes
should make possible a more rapid
and assured transfer of American
manpower and equipment than
seemed possible even two months
ago. The war may thus be about to
build up to supreme climax this
summer, just when most military
observers had considered it adjourn
ed until next year. 1t is the German
high command which has precipi-
tated this crucial situation. Whether
that denotes sense of strength or a
desperate gamble like that launched
by Ludendorff in the spring Of 1918,
only the course of events can tell.