Evening star., 1943-03-17
Japanese Soid to Seek
To Protect RubuuI
Major Eliot Discusses
New Drive on AustruIiu
AS desperate Enterprise
BU Mai. george Fielding Eliot

BU Moj. George Fielding Eliot,
There are renewed signs Of japanese
activities in the island area west Of New
Guinea and northwest Of Port Darwin.
but the enemys IN, entions remain un-
certain.
The japanese positions in this area
have their military focus at Ambona,
which lies about $50 miles west and
north from Darwin. The approaches
from Darwin to Anboina are covered by
a Semi-circle OF japanese outpoSts, be-
ginning at the eastward end of the semi
circle, al BabO on the mainland Of
Dutch New Guinea. and then swinging
around through Dobo CWhere japanese
troop concentrations have been re-
ported, SaumlaSki in the Tenimber Is
lands and Timor to Soemba. OF these
points, Saumlaski is the nearest 10 Oar
win. being some 300 miles distant from
that base
The purpose of these Japanese diSpo-
StiOns can be either offensive or de-
fensiye The seml-crcle described with
Ambona a. its backstop covers the sea
passages between New Guinea and
Cclebcs, which is to say the direct ap
proach to the Philippines from Australia.
1t is hardly likely Of course. that the
Japanese anticipate an early offensive
by United Nations forces in this direc-
ton, but the more defensive strength
they can set up in this area. the greater
will be the proportion of mobile force
which they could detach TO meet a United
Nations attack on Rabaul which still
remains the most probable objective for
any offensive We might set on foot in
the Southwestern Pacific.
1t is quite possible, however. that the
japanese have in mind a diverSionarv
offensive Of their own against Port Dar-
win. They are close enough to be able
to give pretty thorough air cover to such
a move provided they have sufficient
numerical strength in planes and pilots
There have been indications lately that
japanese air strength is growing IN the
general area north of Australia This
seems to have been achieved only at the
cost OF robbing China and Burma Of air
formatlons-a further indication OF the
Inability Of japanese aircraft production
to keep up with the losses Of long war
When all is said and done. however. a
japanese attack on Darwin in the face
Of the United Nations air power would
be a desperate business and while the
japanese have shown that thev do not
hesitate to undertake even the most
desperate enterprises when the situation
seems TO call for them the japanese
high command must find the Darwin ed
venture heavily weighted with risk as
against comparatively small chances OF
useful achievement
Another possibility is that the Japa-
nese are getting ready 10 try to seize
Merauke, port in Dutch New Guinea
about 425 miles west OF Port Moresoy.
1t does not seem likely that the japanese
would attempt an overland attack on
Port Moresby from this direction for the
distance is great and the tremendous
barrier Of the Fly River stands in the
way. But Merauke is only about 1870
miles from the Torres Straits. the mar
row waterway between New Guinea and
the northern tip OF Australia at Cape
York, and Japanese aircraft based at
Merauke might be able to prevent the
use OF Torres Straits by Allied shipping.
This would cut off the sea route to Dar-
win, leaving that base entirely dependent
upon its somewhat tenuous road and rail
communications with the interior.
Moreover, it might be possible. using
Merauke as base, to launch raiding
groups down into the Gulf OF Carpen-
TARA. Here again the japanese would
face great risks but they would certainly
make a great nuisance of themselves and
would tie up United Nations forces
which could better be employed else
where. Probably one of the most attrac-
tive considerations, from the japanese
point of view. Of move toward Merauke
would be the fact that Gen. Macarthur
would be compelled to take steps TO
drive them out and that in itself would
detract from his ability to launch an
offensive toward Rabaul.
On the whole I think il NAV be fairly
conceded that whether their local p,Ir-
poses be offensive or defensive the Japa-
neSe now are concerned chiefly with pre-
venting Gen. Macarthur and Admiral
HaISey from getting set for an attack on
Rabaul the loss Of which would be the
most serious reverse that they have vet
experienced in this section
'Copyrsht 1913. New York Tribune IncD