The Waterbury Democrat., 1943-06-14
Next Year Probably Would Be Too Late; Peace
 Odds 1000 to 1
GLOBAL STRATEGISTS
 RELY ON SPECULATION
Several in Washington Be. lieve Nazis Can Be Licked
 By Christmas
BY LYLE C. WILSON United Press Staff CorrespOndentj

United Press Staff Correspondentj
 Washington, June IA. = (UP)-Germany was judged today to have one last chance to avoid unconditional sur render defeat - to get Rus sia out of the war this year by force or persuasion. Next year probably would be too late. There does not appear to be a single responsible civilian or military figure here who believes Germany can eliminate Russia by persuasion or by any method other than the annihila- tion of the Red Army.
 The odds against a negotiated Russo-German peace would be 1,O0O-to-1
 Neither do military experts be- lieve the Axis can lick the Red Army this year. It was two years ago this month that Germany began unde- clared war on the Soviet Union.
 Ill-Informed Data
 The War Department then was so ill-informed on Red Army equip ment and fighting power that an officer, presented to a selected group of newspaper reporters as the de- partments Russian expert soon af- ter the opening shot was fired. risked his reputation on the state ment that only an act of God could prevent defeat of Russia in a mat ter of weeks. That officer no longer is the War Departments Russian expert, but the facts are that our military authorities do not have much more direct information about the Red Army now than they had then. All they know is that the Red Army can and will fight. There is no exchange of military information between Moscow and Washington as, for instance, there is between Washington and London.
 The few American observers who have seen the Russian German front have not seen all of it. But Americans do now that the Ger mans have deployed approximately 220 divisions on the eastern front against the Red Army The vital significance of Russia remaining in the war is evident enough when it is realized that but for the fight the Russians are making. most of those 220 divisions would be deployed in the west ard sout hagainst Ameri can and British troops
 Since the U s. military command is not fully informed by Russian leaders, American 9lobal strategiStS must combine considerable specula- tion with their judgments of how things are likely to go in the east. They must depend on events as they happen to indicate whether they are speculating along sound or unsound lines. They are speculating now on the extent to which Germany is capable this year of making an- other all-out effort to defeat the Red Army and on the firmness with which the Russians can parry the thrust and undertake counter attack.
 They know that if Adolf Hitler hopes to knock Russia out this year. he must start knocking in big way this month, If he does, and the Russians can stop him and move their counter attack schedule up to the Axis position will deteriorate rapidly and Germany most likely vii lbe licked in 1914. There are. indeed, a few highly placed and uncommonly we'll in formed officers nere who privately suggest the possibility that Germany might be licked in 1943 - perhaps in time for Christmas.
 In 1941 and again last year. the German Army drove deep into Rus Sia in summer and early autumn campaigns, As the freeze came along the front, the Russians twice
 (Continued on Page A