Evening star., 1943-05-17
japanese Offensive
May Be Coming
Major Eliot Says Enemy
May Try to Beot Allies
To Rocking Punch
By Maj George Fielding Eliot.

From the Japanese point of view, the
charged with ominous possibilities. The
long-planned American offensive for the
| election of the Japanese outposts from
the Aleutian Islands has been launched.
In the South and Southwestern Pacific,
Gen. Macarthur and Admiral Halsey
confer, and conferences between two
such fighting leaders are not held for
the purpose of exchanging small talk
In Washington, Wavell. Somerville.
Peirse, StlWell and Chennault have
their heads together, which means that
something is going to happen presently
on the ASiatic mainland So that it
behooves Japan to have her Pacific house
in order by the time this does happen
If past experience is any criterion, the
Japanese will react violently to all these
pressures. They always have done so in
the past. We put the squeeze on them
in 194l, and the result was Pearl Harbor.
We put the squeeze on them again when
we invaded the Solomons, and they spent
thousands of lives and lost vast guam
titles of shipping and material trying to
put us out before they became convinced
! that they could not do so by the methods
they were using.
Now we are squeezing them again, we
and our Allies. On every hand they see
the shadow of coming events of highly
unpleasant nature. Their whole strategy
has been based on the use Of greater
readiness and shorter lines of operation
to prevent their enemies from getting
set to attack them in strength. They will
almost certainly try that again.
So when Premier TOTO makes a speech
in Manila and says that Japan is plan
ming a great new operation which viii.
bring Britain and America to their
knees; when Gen. Araki brushes off the
Attu offensive with the remark that 1t
is minor matter that Japan is con-
centrating all her power on a new move
which will require her whole strength,
they are not just uttering idle threats
We may be very sure that notice was
taken in Toxic of President Roosevelt's S
warning that the vital centers OF Japan
would be attacked from the soil of China,
and we may be very sure that of all the
possibilities of this war, that one is most
disturbing to the war lords of Japan.
So they are, if they have the power.
going to do something about it. They
will try to anticipate our attack by an
attack OF their own.
Where and when? To take the last
question first. probably before October,
for in october we may move on Burma
in strength. Probably, indeed, mucn
sooner than that.
Where? On the basis of logic, in
China. Foch's great principle of war was
always to attack from strength against
weakness. Japan's greatest strength is
in equipped and disciplined land forces.
She cannot use these against Americans
in the Pacific islands, or against Aus
tralia, or even in Burma, save in such
proportion as her navy and shipping
can take them there and supply them
after their arrival. She can use them
extensively only against Russia or China,
on the Asiatic continent.
To attack Russia now would be to
place an additional strain on her air
and naval power. which might well
prove disastrous. To attack China, on
the other hand, to put an end to the
Chinese resistance, would deprive
Chinas allies of the use of Chinese ter
ritory as a base for attack on Japan,
would dislocate all our plans for the
recovery of Burma-because they would
thereafter have no ulterior object-and
would leave Japan free to concentrate
on the Pacific front.
But it is from the Pacific that Japan
is menaced now. and not from Asia.
That is, barring a sudden Russian
change Of front, which is always pos
sible but hardly probable at this par
ticular moment. If cold logic calls for
an attack against China, the pressure
of other considerations may lead the
japanese into more distant and danger
Gus adventures. A diversionary attack
against Western or Northern Australia
may be in the cards. A great naval
raid against our trans-Paciic communi-
cations may be possibility. Direct
assault on Hawaii does not seem likely,
but cannot be ruled out.
The japanese might even try sud-
den onslaught on some point on the
West Coast of the United States or
Canada, with the idea of establishing
an air base and doing what damage
they could before they were destroyed
Their one idea in any such move would
be to divert us from our purposes, to
rock us off base, to keep us from at
tacking them.
They may even be prepared to bring
out their main fleet and. risk all on a
stand up and knock down fight and If
they are thinking in such terms, the
time is now before Italy's navy is dis
posed of and the British Mediterranean
feet comes steaming eastward across
the Indian Ocean to join hands with
II
As for Burma, we must not rule out
an attack on India. an attempt to cap
italize on the repulse of the British
reconnaissance in force toward Akyab.
That, too, would be desperate busi-
ness, but the japanese have never hes
itated to choose between a seemingly
desperate offensive and passive accept
ence of defeat. For the latter, they are
not psychologically adapted. They will
keen on fighting, and attacking, while
they have the power.
lcopyrieht 1853. by New York Tribune 1nc)