Evening star., 1943-09-16
Germans Face Disaster
In Ukraine Fighting
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

With the capture Of Nezhin, the Rus
slams have cut the last rail communica-
ton between the German armies of the
center and those of the south, save for
the long detour by way of Kiev. Thus
| the serious operational breach" in the
German defensive system, which the
German military commentator, Capt.
Ludwig Sertorius, said the other day was
the only thing the Germans had to fear
In Russia, seems to have been effected.
1t remains now to be seen whether the
Russians can exploit this achievement by
destroying that part of the German army
| the southern part) which they have cut
OH from the remainder. On the face of
the situation as we know it, it does not
seem likely that they can wholly succeed
IN doing so. The reasons for this opinion
are Cd the fact that the Germans are
carrying out extensive demolitions as
they tau back and that the Russians will
nave to reconstruct a whole new rail and
road system. This becomes more difficult
ana slows progress more in proportion as
the Russian armies advance into terri
tory once held by the Germans. ca The
approaching rains of autumn, which will
turn the roads of the Ukraine into ouag-
mlres OF thick mud. 90 The tremendous
military barrier of the Dnieper, with its
comparatively few crossings, will serve
the Germans as formidable delaying
OBSTACLE at least until 1t freezes
The major threat to the Germans at
this moment Is that the Russians from
the Nezhin-Priluki area will strike down
70 the Dnieper somewhere between Kiev
ana kremenchug. This will cut the vital
leV-Poltava-Lozovaya railway, which
SO lar the Germans have managed tn
keep IN operation and which is the back
Done OF their defensive system In the
south. IT the Russians reach the Dniener
~ tne area indicated and can stay there.
the retreat OF the Germans becomes de-
pendent on three crossings of that river
-tne bridges at Kremenchug, Dnepro-
petrovsk and Zaporozhe.
The loss Of one of these crossings would
mean serious German reverse the loss
OF two might mean a great disaster
comparable to that of Stalinerad All arc
threatened, but none is threatened very
Closely The Germans will get MANY
men and much material across in all
probability.
Iney may even be able to stabilize
tner position so as to hold at least part
OF the Kiev-Poltava railway. But that
they Will lose prisoners and material In
considerable numbers also seems ,,kelv
Iof tne russians are pressing hard on
tner heels and all will not get awav
Inc situation is shaping up toward .
new stabilization on q new front for RI.
rainy season, with the Russians us,no
tne interval to prepare their winter
onensiVe. What is interesting right now
Is just how much the Germans can
save out OF the wreck, how much of their
soutnern group Of armies f1nally can
get behind a newly stabilized front and
now much will be lost in the process.
Another threat to the Germans is tb.
prospective loss of the Crinea. Az the
Russians press forward toward Zapo-
rozhe and Melitopol the cutting of the
one railway line into the Crimean
fenlnsula becomes more and more
nKely. Should it be cut, the German
troops In the Crimea, and those in the
Iamensk bridgehead across the Strait
OF kerch. would be dependent m what
supplies they have in their depots. nlu.
two precarious lines of communica ations
nelther OF great capacity.
one OF these is the road from Kher.
son, on the lower Dnieper, to the end
OF branch line railway which connects
tne main towns of the Crimea with the
Istnmus OF Perekop. It is hard ia see
now this line could be defended If Nell,
eopol were In Russian hands The other
Is by sea-and again it is hard to sec
how the Germans could do n,uch T.,
the way of sending supplies to sevas-
topol by sea If the Russian Black Sea
Meet were back at Novorossisk: an event
which seems likely to occur within tho
immediate future
Inc military and political effects of
RUSSIAN recovery of the Crimea would
oe so great, not only as affecting tn.
RUSSIAN campaign, but throughout the
naikans' where German prestige already
mas oeen rocked by the surrender Of
Ioaiy' that 1t seems hard to believe the
Germans will not make a really desper.
ate enort to defend the Crimea-which
means, In effect, holding a line some-
wnere IN front of zaporozhe down to
the shore OF the Sea Of Azov
Should they fail to hold such a line
ana should they lose their Tamensk
orldgehead as well, the Crimea almost
certainly will be recovered by the Rus
SLAMS during the winter, perhaps before
the year ends.
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