Evening star., 1943-09-25
Eastern Front Crisis

front indicates the imminence of a
tremendous climax to the summer
campaign. More than three months
have passed since the Red Army
sprung it's gigantic offensive. With
in the first few weeks of that titanic
operation it became clear that the
German high command did not in
tend to stand on it's then existing
defense line and fight to a finish
there. The alternative was a general
retirement, and this has been going
on all the way from the Smolensk
region opposite Moscow to the Sea
of Azov and the Caucasus bridge
head which covers the Crimea. No
where have the Germans attempted
| to stage counteroffensive like that
of last winter which regained Khar-
kov and restabilized their defense
line in the south. Only stubborn
LEGAL delaying actions have been
fought to protect the evacuation of
German troops and supplies from
areas threatened with encirclement
by the advancing Red columns.
Generally speaking, the German
retreat has been skillfully conducted.
No large bodies of troops have been
cut off and destroyed, and equip
ment losses have been moderate.
But this retirement process has
reached a stage where the Germans
appear logically compelled to make
at least a temporary stand on the
one practicable defense line they
possess in Russia. This, the line of
the Dnieper, the great river which
forms an effective water barrier
from Smolensk southwark to the
Black Sea.
Until recently, determined Ger
man stand on the Dnieper line was
taken almost for grantd by most
military observers. However, the
tremendous offensive power dis
played by the Red Army is throwing
some doubt on the ability of the
Germans to hold the Dnieper. This
water line has two weak spots. One
is the Smolensk region, where it is
relatively small river not difficult
to cross by perfected engineering
methods. The other is the "big
bend" below Kiev, where the Dnieper
departs from its southwark course
and swings southeastward for nearly
800 miles to a sharp elbow, then
bends abruptly westward for some
$50 miles until it falls into the Black
Sea. Already the Russians are
reaching the river at several points
between Kiev and the elbow, and
the fall of Poltava, the last German
bastion east of the river, means that
the Russians will soon exert continu-
Gus pressure along that entire 300
mile stretch. Furthermore, they are
battering hard against the 50-mile
land bridge between the Dnieper
elbow and the Sea of AZov, which
screens the German garriSons Of the
Crimea and the shrunken Caucasus
bridgehead beyond. The big bend
of the Dnieper is thus becoming an
exposed salient which the Germans
must hold in great strength if it is
to be held at all. But a Russian
crossing of the river south of Kiev
would threaten all German forces in
the bend and on the Crimea with
entrapment Furthermore, the Ger
mans say they have evacuated Smo-
lensk, far to the north, and this
indicates that the Russians may out
flank the Dnieper line near its head
waters, enabling the Red Army to
envelop the Germans by south
ward push along the railway trunk
line that parallels the river on its
western bank almost to Kiev.
This double threat renders the
German position basically insecure.
The potential peril will be intensi-
fed when winter freezes the river
and facilitates crossings on the ice.
Hence, there is a distinct possibility
that the German high command may
intend merely fresh delaying actions
to screen a further retirement vir-
tually out of Russia to a new line
along the old Polish and Rumanian
frontiers, where topography favors
the defense. The Germans are un-
questionably counting on lull dur
ing the season of the autumn rains.
But these appear to be unusually late
and light this year. Climate may
thus favor the Russians again.
Meanwhile the Reds continue to
achieve seeming miracles in MAIN
tanning their transportation system,
and the momentum of their offensive
continues unabated. The possibility
of major German disaster grows
apace.
CI. ID I