Evening star., 1943-07-04

BERNE.-1n his May 10th speech be-
fore the American Congress, British
Prime Minister Churchill stated in 80
many words that aerial warfare as
means Of knocking out the enemy could
at most be regarded as an experiment to
be tried alongside other means Of prose-
cutting the war.
This experiment Is being tried today
with ever-increasing violence. 1t has
recently resulted in . minor success at
Pantelleria where, for the first time In
history, an enemy stronghold virtually
succumbed to aerial bombardment alone.
This success has led people here, and
doubtless throughout the world, to ask
what the chances are for its repetition
on a far larger scale.
Can aerial warfare alone knock out
the Axis? In the view Of almost all mu-
tual observers here, the answer to this
question is in the negative.
Aerial warfare may cripple the enemy
by undermining morale, dislocating
communications, materially lessening
production and confronting him with
innumerable complex problems. With
out it, a direct blow to the jaw, with all
the force behind it which the Allies can
muster, would be necessary. With 1t,
perhaps, in the fullness Of time, COM
paratively gentle tap will sufnce.
German Morale Suffers.
This opinion is given after carefully
weighing all the evidence available in
this little neutral observatory sand
wiched between the two main Axis
powers. For weeks now, observers here
have been following with the closest at
tention the first results of Churchills
experiment. They have waded through
a mass OF wishful thinking, prejudice,
propaganda and counterpropaganda to
extricate the facts upon which their
opinion Is based.
That the German morale is suffering
badly under the continuous Allied air
offensive and is giving the Na1 leaders
cause for considerable anxiety is clear.
This alone can explain the campaign
going on inside Germany today to bolster
up morale-a campaign which includes
Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels'
present tour OF the Ruhr, the recent
Berlin Sportpalast demonstration and
the pep articles flooding the Nazi press
these days.
Recently the Nazi party organ. Voel-
kischer Beobachter. gave the keynote to
this campaign when 1t admitted the
extreme difIiculty" of bearing air raids
passively" and suggested that the front
line soldier was better of than the
civilian sheltering in his cellar because
his ability to fight to defend himself
gave him relief from the tremendous
physical and nervous strain put upon
him.
The whole purpose Of the Nazi internal
propaganda today Is to supply Its bombed
civilians with such means OF relief. For
Goebbels knows we'll enough that one
innate German weakness is inability to
bear suspense.
The relief provided by the Nazi propa-
gandists takes the form Of working the
German people into a frenzy OF hatred
against Allied bombers and simultane-
ously dangling in front Of them promises
of the most horrifying reprisas.
In many of those districts not yet
visited by Allied bombers, people live in
unholy fear that their turn Is coming
next. And their fears are not exactly
allayed by stories told them by evacuees
and travellers from the bombed regions
No Indications Of Cracking.
It would, however. be a mistake to
overestimate the effect of Allied bomb
ings on German morale. There is no
indication that this morale is cracking
at least not today. The most one can
safely say is that If Germanys defeat
should one day be brought about by
internal collapse. the bombings will have
played their part.
Giving their reasons for such q cau-
tious verdict, military experts here point
out that only comparatively small part
of the German population is directly
affected by the bombings. According 10
wel-informed sources here, German
bomb evacuees to date number about
100000, Of whom close to half have been
evacuated since last February-little
more than per cent OF the German
population.
Another reason is the success Of the
Nazi propagandists' counter-measures.
There is little doubt that the present
hate reprisals campaign is checking the
downward curve of morale.
1t must also be remembered that in q
totalitarian country, state OF mind is not
synonymous with the general attitude.
However badly the Germans say they
take the bombings. they know too well
that If they want to live they must obey
their leaders.
Advocates OF aerial warfare may argue
that the Allies have not yet done enough
to bring about the moral collapse Of Ger
many. They may point out that if all the
towns In Germany were systematically
bombed, II all vital industrial centers
were hit, and II, as in France in l94O,
5000 900 German refugees were throng-
ing the roads in desperate search for