Evening star., 1943-04-21
Food Prospects

The announcement that the De-
partment of Agriculture has scaled
down it's estimates of some 1943 food
supplies comes at a time when there
is an increasing element of uncer-
tainty in the outlook for food.
1t is not that the departments
announcement was especially pessi-
mistic in tone. According to the re-
vised estimates, there will be some
what less meat, fish, poultry, milk
and milk products, fats and fruits for
civilian use than had been expected.
Balanced against this was an esti-
mated slight increase in a few COM
modities, such as canned fruits and
vegetables and sugar. Reduced to
percentages, this means that the de-
partment now is estimating total
food production increase over 1912 of
4 per cent instead of the per cent
which previously had been figured on.
Standing by itself, this reduction
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three percentage points does not
sound particularly serious. But the
disturbing fact Is that the depart
ment's estimates, even with this
weeks reduction, are much more
optimistic than those coming out OF
the farming districts.
In Ohio and Indiana, high on the
list Of States producing food for
canning, serious drop in the 1943
pack Of tomatoes, sweet corn and
peas is anticipated, according to a
survey by a correspondent of the
New York Herald Tribune. 1t is re-
ported that farmers in the rich Ohio
and Indiana River bottom areas are
refusing to plant as many acres of
canning vegetables as they did last
year because they see no prospect of
getting the labor for cultivating.
harvesting and packing. Officials of
farm agencies in those States believe
the drop in the total of acres planted
will run from 20 to As per cent this
year.
Spokesman at meeting in New
York of the Cooperative Fruit and
Vegetable Association were no more
optimistic. estimating deficits in the
l943 goals of 26 per cent for sweet
potatoes, per cent for white pota-
toes, II per cent for cabbage and 26
per cent for onions. H. w. Voorhees,,
president of the New Jersey Farm
Bureau Federation, predicts that the
consuming public will be on a 10 per
cent food ration within nine months.
In New Jersey the story is the same as
In Ohio and Indiana. Farmers, unsure
OF labor and machinery supplies, are
planting less than their normal
acreage, and the Gamers are finding
1t impossible to contract for packing
crops on their customary scale. An
other gloomy prediction comes from
the sugar industry, which estimates
that the beet sugar crop this year
will be some 100000 tons short of last
years yield-a serious prospect for
those who are banking on a large
scale home canning program.
Obviously, no layman can hazard
even a good guess as to where the
line should be drawn between fact
and fancy in these pessimistic fore
casts, but 1t would seem foolish to
ignore storm signals from such
widely scattered sections OF the
country. Nor has the Department
OF Agriculture indicated that this
weeks downward revision OF it's esti-
mates will necessarily be the last.
On the contrary, referring to it's re-
vised estimates, the department said
that the biggest problem in exceed
Ing, "or even attaining" this volume
of production, assuming favorable
weather, is scarcity of farm labor
and farm machinery. We can only
hope for the best so far as the
weather is concerned, but it clearly
behooves those responsible for farm
production to see to it that every
effort Is made to provide the maxi
mum OF labor and machinery.