Evening star., 1943-10-07
Double Drive Probable
On Nozis in Crimea
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

roi tIle moment, at any rate, the RuS-
sian offensive has been virtually halted
and the Germans are holding fast to
their new line along the Dnieper River
from Orsha to Dnepropetrovska and
thence south to the shore of the Sea of
Azov east of Melitopol
Having failed to prevent the Germans
from stopping and turning at bay On
this line the Russians now must bring
up much heavier forces and great deal
OF equipment before they can hope to
attack in force again. The reason for
this is the difference between what may
be done by mobile forces in hot pursuit,
who can keep going as long as they
have the enemy on the run and as long
as some sort Of mobile supply service
can take care of them-which frequently
can be done to an extent almost unbe-
lieVable, as the Germans showed in the
battle of France and as the Russians
themselves have just demonstrated.
But such mobile elements cannot as
sault an organized and consolidated
defensive position, strongly held by good
troops Once pursuit definitely has
been stopped before such a position, a
position which can be neither stormed
in one grand rush nor by-passcd, then
it Is a matter OF concentrated air at
tacks, the bringing up of heavy guns and
their even heavier ammunition, and all
the rest of the tedious and costly prep
aration which goes into the making of
an assault on modern Notifications
Can the line of the Dnieper be out
flankcd? There are two possibilities,
north and south. On the south, where
the river, below Zaporozhe, bends back
to the west, there is open country south
Of the bend. Here the Germans are
holding a line across the plain to the
Sea Of Azov, just in front of the Crimea
railway. If the Russians can break
through this line they may be able to
push on the Dnieper somewhere along
its lower course. But there are no east
and west railways here and almost no
roads, 50 that the problem of supplying
q large army in a thrust against the
lower Dnleper Is almost insoluble unless
the bases OF attack are in the Crimea
itself and the new German railway from
the Crimea to Kherson, at the mouth
OF the Dnlcpcr, becomes the main line
of supply,
For this reason, and also because Of
the major strategic Importance of the
Crimca, 1t seems probable that the next
Russian efforts in the south may be
directed inltially toward a double attack
on the Crmea, one drive coming by way
n MGfjtn>NOl
way. the other by way of the Kerch
Peninsula - both directly across the
strait, and by means Of amphibious op-
erations on the south shore. The
chances would seem TO favor the recovery
Of the Crimea by the Russians during
the winter and it then could become a
base area from which a drive could be
directed against the lower Dnieper.
In the north. the line of the Dnieper
can, Of course, be turned BY Russian
thrust westward toward the watershed
between the Dniepcr and the Dvina-
the FItebSk Orsha POSITIONS But the
country to the southwark is marshy and
difficult, so that the present is hardly
the time when a great success could be
expected from thrust at this point
Intended to roll up the German line south
of OrSha
If the axis Of the Russian drive were
directed northwest from Vitebsk, how
ever, so as to threaten Polotsk. the prin-
clpal line Of communications of the Ger
man northern front would be imperied.
Such Russian attack might be accom-
oF
pressure in the Lake linen region. where
the two ends Of the lake are guarded
by the twin fOrtresseS OF Novgorod TO
the north and Staraya Russa to the
south. NOvgOrod was almost in Russian
hands this spring, before the thaws in
this terrain of lakes and marshes
brought the Russian attack to a halt.
Probably no more promising results for
an early winters campaign are avail
able to the Russians than in this area.
kleV. Of course. remains the key posi-
ton and will continue to be so as long as
the bend Of the Dnieper is held by the
Germans. But the ground will grow
hard In the north long before it freezes
in the south so that for the next so DAYS
an attack toward Kiev will be attended
with great difficulties, while by October
IS it should be possible to begin large
scale operations on the front between
Leningrad and Vitebsk The shifting
Of reserves and material will, of course
take time but the Russians are now
in possession of the great central rail-
way system of their country. a fact which
will confer on them for the future a
strategic freedom of action which they
so far have been denied.
(Copyright, 1943 by New York Tribune, Inc)