Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1943-02-18
Greater Defeat Seen
For Nuzis in Russia
Major Eliot Says Foe
Must Hold Trunk RoiIwoy
Or Suffer Decisive Disaster
By Maj. George Fielding Eliot.

By Maj George Fielding Eliot.
1t is perhaps worth repeating for the
sake Of emphasis, that what is happening
now in South Russia is a German with
drawal from positions which have become
strategically untenable. This fighting
that is going on is between German
covering forces trying to protect the
evacuation of troops and material and
the Russians who are naturally trying
to capture as many of the retiring Ger
mans and as much of their equipment
as they can.
The withdrawal of a large force in the
face of the enemy is usually a costly
operation and when we hear of deter
mined German resistance, as at Stalino
and SalyanSk, it simply means that the
Germans are trying to get off as cheaply
as possible.
There are two questions of major i'm
portance which may we'll be asked: Cd
How far do the Germans mean to
withdraw; GU how much will the with
draWal cost them in prisoners and in
lost equipment and material? 1t has
seemed likely for some time, as already
suggested in these articles that the
German withdrawal in South Russia
will at least be to the line of the Dnieper.
Some British reports are now suggesting
that the River Bug rather than the
Dnieper may be the front on which the
Germans will make stand.
However, it is probably nearer the
truth to point out that the main line
which the Germans must defend. If they
are to remain in Russia at all, is not a
river line but a railway line-the Great
Northern South Trunk Railway from
Leningrad through Vitebsk to Odessa.
This line has been converted to the
German standard gauge and by means
Of 1t the Germans are able to shift re-
serves and material from north to south
or vice versa SO as to support operations
whether offensive or defensive on any
part of their Russian front For the
Germans to lose possession of the rail-
road would virtually mean their expul-
sion from Russia altogether.
this main line in South Russia One
reason why the Germans may try to
hold the great bend of the Dnieper River
is because this eastward bulge forms
sort of bastion protecting the ap-
proaches to this vital railway farther
Tense Of the main railway line and may
soon fall into Russian hands, but Bry-
anSk and Smolensk are much closer
to the line, and if they were to fall into
Russian hands, would seriously imperil
the whole central portion of it.
Still farther north the desperate Ger
man defense of Veiliki Luki was precisely
because this stronghold, now captured
by the Russians, is very close to the
northern section Of this main railway.
The Russian tenure Of Veliki Luki means
the Germans have to abandon the Len
ingrad Vitebsk line and fall back to a
line running northweStWard from Vitebsk
perhaps to Lake Peipus More likely to
the Gulf of Riga (the line of the River
Dvina).
Certainly the tremendous readiust-
ments of the German positions in South
Russia must be accompanied by CORE
spending readjuStment5 of their posi-
tons in Central and North Russia; fur
thermore, they are under the imperative
necessity of shortening their lines of
communication as their manpower and
their resources continue to decrease.
They can no longer afford to expend
so much of their total strength on
transportation.
AS to how much their withdrawal will
cost them, this depends very largely on
the skill with which their covering forces
are handled, the morale and determina-
ton of the troops assigned to these
difficult and thanklesS tasks and the
ability of the Russians to maintain their
constant pressure at the key points
The violent but futile German counter
attacks with picked troops at Kharkov
suggests that this center may have fallen
before the Germans were ready to let go
on it, and We shall probably now see a
race for the crossing of the Dnieper at
the eastern point of the great bend. The
German purpose will be to get as many
Of their troops across the river as pos
sible; the Russian purpose will be to
cut them off If the Russians get there
first. A German disaster may be In the
making greater than any that has vet
taken place.
Copyright, 1913, New York Tribune. Incl