Evening star., 1943-03-06
The Meaning of Rzhev

The Meaning Of Rzhev
The fall of Rzhev to the Russians is
an event of capital Importance in the
whole strategic picture on the east
ern front. Indeed. it Is possible to
read into it an even wider strategic
and political significance. It is ar
guable that this abandonment may
portend major shift in Germany's
overall war plan, together with its
foreign policy
Rzhev was the spearhead Of a gi-
gantic salient, based on Smolensk,
which presented a chronic threat to
Moscow, only 1870 miles to the east
ward. So long as the Germans held
this broad salient, $50 miles deep
and averaging 100 miles wide, there
was always the possibility that they
could mount new offensive on the
Soviet capital. That danger became
evident last summer, when the great
German offensive in the south might
have taken Stalingrad and rolled up
the Volga behind Moscow. In that
case, Rzhev could have been the
western point of gigantic pincer
movement that might conceivably
have nipped off Moscow and forced
a general Russian retirement to the
Urals. The Axis failure to take
Stalingrad and the southern dis
asters which ensued have relegated
this grandiose conception to the
limbo Of lost hopes. It is today bare
ly conceivable that the German high
command possesses the manpower or
equipment to venture fresh large
scale offensive in Russia this coming
summer, especially in view of threat
ened Anglo American attacks
against Western or Southern Europe.
With the entire war picture thus
altered, the Rzhev salient loses its
significance for the German high
command. The cold realism for
which it is noted would seem to die
tate evacuation to a greatly short
ened defense line before the spring
thaws render such a movement i'm
practicable. New Russian gains here
indicate that the evacuation is pro-
ceeding. The only question is, what
other retirements by the Germans
may be involved. The entire rail-
way line running from Moscow
through Rzhev to Velikie Luki is now
in Russian hands. That will greatly
facilitate a massing Of men and
equipment for Russian drives either
southwark toward emolensk, west
ward at Latvia, or both. Russian
pressure on all northern sectors OF
the front clear to Leningrad - be-
coming 10 insistent that Z general
retirement of the Germans sto the
Baltic States is possible in the near
future. That, in turn, raises the
question of Finland and its relations
with the Axis. The speculative vistas
are certainly far reaching.
Meanwhile, in the south-central
sectors of the battle front, Russian
advances have created another Ger
man salient At Orel, the northern
anchor of the now broken Axis de-
Tense line southwark to the Black
Sea. With rearward rail communi-
cations already severed, and the
spring thaw imminent, logic would
indicate an Axis retirement from this
pocket and an attendant shortening
Of the line.
The one situation which does not
seem to conform to the general
strategic pattern on the eastern front
Is that in the extreme south, where
heavy German reserves have halted
the Russian offensive and even
thrown 1t back at certain points. It
Is most unlikely that the German
high command meditates real often
sive operations there, with the Axis
northern flank becoming increas-
ingly exposed. Indeed, the strategic
picture from Orel southwark to the
Black Sea is so confused and fluid
that clear Interpretation will not be
possible until current operations as
sumo a more definite trend.
OF course, the entire eastern front
Is approaching its periodic spring
stalemate, when the breakup of
winter transforms all OF Russia into
q morass of mud and slush. The
winter has been so relatively mild
that this interim phase is likely to
come earlier than usual.