Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1943-07-25
Experts Hold German Crackup
Nearer Than Had Been Expected
Bv Constantine Brown,

command of Field Marshal Erwin Rom
mel, reached the gates of Cairo and
Alexandria,
At that time Hitler was hell bent to
take Stalingrad and the Caucasus. Had
he detached only two divisions, 300 tanks
and 1000 planes to reinforce the ex-
hausted forces Of the African fox" there
is no question that the Nazi forces would
have been quartered in Palestine, Syria
and 1raq today.
There was 70 real British force BE-
tween the Nazis at FL Alamein and the
Suez Canal. The whole Mediterranean
would have been In the hands of the Axis
and the oil Of Iraq might have been sup
plying Hitlers panzer divisions and Luft-
waite.
May Have Lacked Strength.
He never reinforced Rommel. Why7
No military strategist can give an ade-
quate explanation except to guess that
either Hitler considered the Middle East
a secondary affair while the defeat of
Russia would have won the war, or that
the Nazi military machine did not have
enough forces TO spare for Rommel and
figured that once involved in a campaign
in the Middle East more planes and
troops would have to be withdrawn from
the main theatcr of operations in Russia.
That the Nazi military machine began
to lose breath when it met for the first
time a well-organized and determined
force was illustrated at Stalingrad. The
Germans could not fight an offensive war
on two fronts. Even the picayunish sec.
ond front in Africa told on their or
ganization.
All available reports from the Reich
indicate that the Nazis are not nearly at
the end of their resources. They have
gasoline and oil for at least another 10
months; their industrial plants have
suffered heavy damage, but globally the
Nazi production has not suffered more
than or per cent since the beginning
of the Allied sir attacks. 1t is the
morale, however, which has gone down
at least so oer cent in the last two
months, If the reports we are now re-
ceiving are only half correct.
available throughout Europe It is
formidable force-on paper. 1t is much
more than we and the British have to-
gether 1t is probably more than any
force the United States and Britain will
be able to muster In Europe. The 300
divisions the Russians are supposed to
have modified are not included in this
estimate.
Efficiency Is Dropping.
But the divisions do not seem to have
the same efficiency they had during the
early stages aof the war when everything
went their way 1t is difficult to estimate
the losses the Nazi armies have suffered.
But placing the number of total cas-
ualties-killed and permanently disabled
at 100000 may not be far from the
mark. This means in practice, however,
that the original highly trained and in
doctrinated Nazi army has been de-
stroyed in the same manner the Imperial
army of 1914 and 1915 had been de-
stroyed.
The divisions are there and their num-
Der is impressive. But the quality no
longer is what it was two years ago The
Nazis can draw from their manpoWer
pool some 500 900 men year Admitting
that 30 per cent-and this is a minimum
are not fit for front line military serv-
ice, it leaves $4,000 men for the combat
divisions
In order to maintain a first line air
force of say 5000 planes they must draw
at least 100000 of these young recruits
for aviation. This leaves some ,0G0 for
active service.
With the death or disability Of many
young trained soldiers who had been
sent to war in 1899 and with only 100000
new blood in the fighting forces, it is
obvious that the German divisions must
now have very large number of men
over 30 years in their forces.
This war requires acrobatics. A man
who is not perfectly fit hasn't much
chance of lasting out two months And
while it is true that the arrogance of
the Nazis has not been reduced in the
slightest, the quality of their troops is nc
longer what it used to be and cannot be
compared with that of the fresh Amer
lean divisions which have not tasted the
meaning of defeat
Despite strict censorship and the
tSee CRACKUP, Page C-3)