Evening star., 1943-02-21
Germany Nearing
Defect
BY Otcen L. Scott.

that the war against Germany will be
won either in the present year or early
in 1914. This expectation grows stronger
with each new success of the Russian
armies and with each new bombing ex-
pedition over Europe.
The fact seems to be that the Germans
are in very serious trouble. That trouble
is Of several kinds, part OF it military,
part OF 1t industrial part Of it political
and part of it in the field of manpower
Added up, these troubles soon should be-
gin TO convince even the most confirmed
followers of Hitler that eventual defeat
is certain, Just when the conviction
will lead to An end of the war depends
upon many factors. The strongly held
view of many officials who are qualified
to judge, however, is that the Germans
who run things will admit that the Jig
is up in matter of months rather than
of years.
Present German problems mainly are
these:
First, there is the problem Of avoiding
major disaster in Russia. Two Of Ger
many's most powerful armies, the one
before Stalingrad and the one in the
Caucasus, are destroyed or nearly so.
Other German armies have been forced
into precipitate retreat, sacrificing vast
amounts Of Germany'S war materials.
These losses probably destroy any pros
pect Of 1943 German offensive on a
large scale in Russia.
Next, there is the problem of man
power. A conservative estimate, accepted
by military officials, is that the Germans
IN their war with Russia have lost at
least 100000 men dead, crippled or
captured. Casualties are on a scale
greater than in the last war. The need
for replacements is stretching German
manpoWer to the limit, even with 6O0O,-
600 foreigners lloW working in Germany
to release Germans for army service.
This foreign labor is anything but eff
cient.
In the third place, there is industrial
trouble. German war production is de-
clining. Officials report a precipitate de-
cline in aircraft output German trans
port IS beginning to be strained to the
consistent air attack upon it. Raw ma
terials are increasingly scarce. Machinery
is beginning to wear out. Bombings are
beginning to have an effect The area of
Russia that was expected to provide oil
and many other materials now is being
lost
After that there is political trouble.
A Nf &c ci1
tic fifth column that must be policed.
Rumanians, FinS Hungarians would
like to get out of the war Only the pres
ence Of German troops keeps the Italians
from seeking q separate peace. The Ger
mans are beginning to feel very much
alone in the world That feeling will
grow as 1943 wears on,
All of this does not mean that Ger
many will give up without a hard fight.
The Germans retain a highly potent
military strength. However, it does mean
that Germany's last chance for as much
as stalemate in the war is fast fading
AS that chance fades, it is only natural
for a feeling of hopelessness to develop
Out Of that feeling is expected TO grow
the base for surrender before colquering
armies march through the Siegfried
Line and into Germany itself
The pattern Of military events to come
should add to German problems.
In Russia there still is a month or
more of weather favorable for offensive
operations. The Russians, with luck.
can do immense further damage to the
German armies in that time Their
operations will slow, however, once the
spring thaw comes.
In Tunisia the Germans must main
tain highly vulnerable supply line that
may be severed once the Americans and
British gain air control over the straits
between Sicily and Tunisia German
ship losses in that area already are large.
When this fight breaks the Germans will
face a defeat that will further add to
their troubles.
In Italy the Italians have ground for
their present panicky attitude. That
nations cities are highly vulnerable. It's
supply line to Germany is over rail
lines that are wide open to air attack
and sabotage. All of North Africa soon
be directed at Italian industry and naval
bases and military centers. Italys out
look is very dark.
In Britain there is the worlds greatest
concentration of unused war materials
and trained men. The British Isles are
a highly potent base of operations for
attack in any one of several directions.
At some time in l943 there should be
enough bOmbers in Britain to permit a
start OF air war on the scale that air
force officers have sought Air attacks
in this war to date have been rather
scattered and have not been sustained.
In the United States war industry is
beginning to pour out an avalanche of
weapons Big bomber production, owing
to trouble at Willow Run, remains far
under expectations, but it is growing.
Submarines still are slowing the delivery
of these weapons to battle fronts and are
sinking sizable portion of them.
Yet, all in all, what the German lead
erS now see is a gathering of strength
on the part of the Allies that is great
enough to generate that feeling of hope
leSsnesS that is a prelude to surrender.
The feeling here very definitely is one
Of optimism concerning the outcome OF
the war with Germany.
Preserve Our IA Ds