Evening star., 1943-11-21
Japan's Gains
= In Peril
BIZ OUen L. Scott.

All signs now suggest that Japan's big
new empire is in very shaky condition.
In fact, some informed officials advise
that they will not be surprised II big
chunks Of that empire begin to fall away
before many more months have passed.
1t is regarded as entirely possible that
the rubber, tin and oil of Java, Sumatra
and Malaga again may be available to
this country and Britain before the end
OF 1914. The Philippines are coming
back into calculations of those who must
plan ahead. There are good reasons
right now for the Japanese to be worried
about the future of their whole island
empire in the Southwest Pacific.
Japan's difficulty is proving to be
fundamental. Just as in the case of
Germany, her greed plus military neces-
sity, caused her to grab bigger slice Of
the world than she can digest or defend.
She is foundering from an effort at over
expansion.
The Japanese, on paper, have every
thing with which to build an impregnable
empire. They hold storehouse OF raw
materials that can compare in richness
with that of any other world power.
The only trouble is that the Japanese
are finding themselves unable to exploit
these riches in hurry for warmaking
purposes. There are not the ships needed
to carry raw materials from conquered
territories to the industries of Japan.
There are not the machine tools with
which to process in needed quantities
those raw materials which can be trans
ported. From that situation there is no
escape.
Japan is estimated on very best au-
thority to be producing fewer than 1000
airplanes each month. Those planes are
inferior in quality and performance to
the planes of this country. The Japa-
nese are forced to turn to building
wooden ships for their merchant marine.
They lack ability to do much more than
replace losses in their navy, If they are
able to do that. Yet 1t is necessary to
defend sea front and an air front at
least 5000 miles long and threatened at
many points by the immense power of
the United States.
The result OF this situation is becoming
apparent.
Gen. Douglas Macarthur, operating on
a shoestring, with modest number of
men and fewer materials, lacking a
merchant marine and with not many
warships to call on, Is about to turn the
whole southeastern flank of the Japanese
empire. He is showing himself to be a
master of island warfare. At the same
time the powerful new United States
Navy has been able to strike within 1000
miles of Toxic without drawing a fight
in return. 1t has hit at Wake Island
without precipitating counterattack and
has struck into the Marshall and Gilbert
Islands on the same basis. The Japa-
neSe obviously fear for the fate of their
feet and are to use 1t only when vitality
necessary.
The turn from defense to offense in
the Pacific war has been accomplished
by this country with an expenditure
of effort that probably represents less
than 20 per cent of American military
strength. The division of men and
materials, in the light of strategy agreed
upon, calls for relatively small alloca-
ton to the war against Japan. Ac-
complishment with this force shows
what Japan will have to look forward
to when the time comes to shift all
American effort to the Pacific war.
This does not mean that the fight
against Japan is all over but the shout
ing. Far from it. The japanese con-
tinue to enjoy an advantage that goes
to the side with shorter lines of COM
munication. Her forces are intrenched
in defensive positions from which they
can be rooted out only with great effort
Yet, enough has happened to show that
Japan is unable to provide effective
naval or air protection for the empire
that she grabbed
The time is not SO far away when the
United States will be able to concentrate
against Japan Navy that is at least
three times the size and power of the
japanese Navy. Once this Navy can be
used to retake bases within 1000 miles
Of Japan there will be United States
Air Force, equipped with the new "Tokio
bomberS," that can undertake the job of
doing to Japanese industry what present
bombers are doing to German industry.
Also, as the American Navy moves to
the offensive on a big scale, the time
can come when the japanese Navy will
either be forced to fight or will see all
effective communication with its South
west Pacific empire severed.
AS an added worry, the japanese now
must give thought to prospective Brit
ish operations in the Bay of Bengal.
Britain has been slow to get going with
her actions based upon India but there
now are signs that an effort is being
started to build an effective force in this
area that will compel Japan to stretch
still further her already overextended
naval and air forces. Either Japan must
divert strength to the Indian Ocean
area or she will face prospect of hav-
ing done to her what she did to the
British in the Malayan Peninsula.
The result of all of this is that
Japan's position, in the longer view,
appears quite hopeless, SO far as ability
TO hold her new empire is concerned.
The task of defeating Japan at home
is another problem and one that may
be much more difficult and long drawn
out. The job largely will be one of naval
and air effort. This type of war often
is slow moving, because of the difficulty
OF building effective bases before the
decisive blows can be struck.
Japan,S daYS even 50 annear ,ao.,r