Evening star., 1943-12-12
Germans Are Unlikelyto Quit
Till Outer Defense Cracks
By Constantine BrOvn.

in Western Europe as they have had to
bear in Central Italy.
The Germans are now reported tn
have about 80 divisions in Western
Europe. That is to say about 100000
NaA soldiers, having far better means
OF communications than the troops in
Italy, will be ready to meet the Allied
attack. How many more men can be
rushed in is, of course, unknown. Ac.
cordlng to the best available informa.
ton the Germans still have some 450O,-
600 men to oppose the forces of the
United Nations forces.
At present there are fewer than 200
divisions on the Russian front. The rest
are divided approximately as follows:
Italy, Is divisions; France, 80 divisions,
and the Balkans, 20 divisions The re-
mainder are in Germany itself ready to
be rushed to one front or another New
units are said to be forming in the Reich
with men between the ages of So and
40. Their quality is somewhat doubt
ful and it is probable that they will not
be able to obtain the same modern
equipment as the others. They are not
being taken into consideration as serious
opponents and it is assumed that they
will be placed on police duty to make
available for combat some of the SIS
troops which are doing executioners'
work for Hitler and Hinmler.
Could Seize Seashores.
There is a good deal of talk about the
Allies opening a campaign IN the Bal
kans. Such an offensive is not impos-
sible, although in the past it has found
little favor with the American STRAIT
egists. 1t would not be difficult to
wrench the seashores of Greece and
Yugoslavia from the Nazis. But it is
pointed out that it would be difficult
for the Allied armies to move far in
land until next summer.
There are mountains which stand in
the way of an Allied offensive whose
aim should be to reach the Danubian
Valley which leads to the heart of Ger
many. The railway and highway sys-
tenn is very deficient
The winter months are most inap-
propriate for military campaign. The
mud is even worse than in Southern
Russia where both Soviet and Nazi
armies are begged down. The number
of men required for a successful Balkan
campaign, even if the Turks were to
join the attack, will have to exceed 80
divisions. The Balkan area favors the
defenders about as much as the Italian
in, ie k,z1;
the entry of the Turks on the side of the
United Nations would make the Bulgars
stick to their Nal associates.
A major campaign in the Balkans
might have the effect of compelling
further diffusion of the American and
British forces and might force delay
in the offensive across the Channel,
which, while costly in men and war ma
terial, is considered by the American
general staff as the only one capable Of
yielding positive results. Although lit
tie emphasis has been placed publicly
of late on the second front by Mos
COW, it is well known that the Russians
still regard 1t as the foremost require
ment to winning the war.
Must Cross Channel.
A cross-Channel offensive IS even
more important now than it was a few
months ago when the Moscow papers
demanded it every day. 1t has become
a must for the American general
staff, which looks with a good deal Of
apprehension to the Pacific where no
real offensive operations can be under
taken until the American armies are
freed from the European theater
The next two or three months will not
witness any spectacular military offen-
sives. There may be some "coups"
against the ports leading to the Balkan
mountains and unquestionably there
will be an intensified air bombardment
of Germany and her satellites. But the
Allied forces will not actually begin to
hammer the walls of Hitler's European
fortress" until next spring.
Despite a determined effort by the
Allies to break down Nazi resistance this
year and bring Berlin to its knees before
Christmas, the military men in WASH
ington and London have no illusion that
the struggle will not be terrific and
that the Germans will not defend the
outer fringes of the Reich with the ut
most determination.
They care little how much the coun-
tries of Western Europe are ravaged by
(See GERMANS, Page C-3l