Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1943-07-25
Industrial Reconversion
Coming
By OWen L. Scott.

gin to shift from production of military
use. This shift, at first, will center in
textiles, shoes and other products that
are not made of metal.
There is little or no prospect, however,
that civilians can start to buy new model
automobiles this year or next year.
Some new cars may be made during
1914, but they will be for official use. 1t
also is doubtful if new model house
hold equipment-electrical refrigerators,
washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
fans, etc.-will be available to civilians
for many months.
Yet, an increased production of cleo
trio irons is being authorized. There is
to be much larger production of farm
machinery. Spare parts are to be pro-
duced in far greater quantity so that
present automobiles and present house
hold equipment can be kept in good
order. Woolens and textiles of all kinds
will be available in larger quantities for
civilians as military demand tapers off.
The same is true of some kinds Of
processed foods.
The fact is that the United States is
doing what nobody thought that it
could do. 1t is fighting two wars, is sup
plying Allies with equipment, and at the
same time is maintaining a high stand
ard of living for civilians. No other
nation has been able even to approx
mate that feat, which is testimonial
to the amazing productive resources of
American industry and agriculture.
Production Capacity Great.
So immense is this Nations capacity
for production that it now is making
war on a scale measured in dollar terms
at 10000, 100000 year and at the same
time is turning out civilian goods on a
scale that in this year will permit a retail
trade of above $50 900, 900. The world
has never before seen anything to ap-
proach that record. Yet in the very
fact of its size is a measure of the post
war problem that is beginning to loom.
That problem is going to be to find a
formula that will permit utilization
OF Americas vast productive resources
and at the same time provide means
for the effective distribution of the re-
sulting peacetime products
Right now, war provides a ready out
let for all of the war goods that can be
produced. However. within the next
six months there will begin to appear
an excessive capacity of war production
IN some lines. This already has been
the case in some types of ammunition
and in tanks. The time is in sight when
the military pipeline will be filled in
many lines and when production needs
Will center largely in replacement of
goods used up in actual combat.
Many things have happened to bring
about this changing outlook.
The most important factor. of course
is the Russian defeat of Germany's main
armies. There has been an immense
Wastage OF German manpower and Ger
man production in Russia. The Germans
must tie up millions of their men and
the bulk OF their arms production on the
Russian front, thereby reducing greatly
the problem that confronts the Ameri-
can Army and American industry. In
stead of having to equip and supply in
action a military force of 100000 men,
including Army and Navy, as originally
estimated, industry is called upon to
equip no more than 100000 men.
Good News From Abroad.
Then there are other factors at work
For one thing, losses of both men and
equipment in North Africa and in Sicily
have been far below estimates. Loss of
military equipment through ship sinking
is far under the expected level. Aircraft
losses are not what military officials
thought that they would be over Europe.
The loss of naval vessels in the war with
Japan is far below expectations. The
same is true of aircraft.
AS result of this situation, supplies
are accommodating rapidly. The British
Army is fully equipped at this time and
needs only to have its replacement de-
mands filled. The Russians are calling
on this country for a smaller proportion
OF combat equipment than expected The
American Army will have its basic re-
qu1rements met in the months just
ahead. After that, the emphasis will be
upon replacement of weapons used up
in action or in training
So long as this war lasts there ap-
parently will be an unlimited demand
for merchant ships. for naval vessels
and for aircraft. But, in other types of
equipment there does seem to be a satu-
ration point. AS that point is met in one
type of ordnance or in one type of air.
craft or one type of naval vessel, ma
terials and nanpoWer are released that
can be diverted to other types of military
equipment or to production for civilian
use.
1t is becoming apparent that by early
1914 there probably will be the start of
important reconversion in some indus
tries back to production for civilian use.
For the most part, these industries will
be those that do not use much metal
Before reconversion gets under way on
an important scale, there will begin to be
shortages of goods on store shelves.
These shortages will be due less to the
actual needs of citizenry being de-
prived of necessities than to the fact
that civilians will have so much money
to spend that they will be buying what
ever they can find to buy, regardless of
real need
The now very obvious fact is that the
American people are going through the
greatest war in their history with little
or no sacrifice in living standards. The
upper income classes and the middle