Evening star., 1943-09-09
Italy CupituIotes

ltdIy ullSOliulbIoiidl ulICIluCI III
wolves incalculable possibilities, in
cluding the distinct likelihood that
what is left of the Italian Army and
Navy may soon be fighting against
their recent allies. There seems to
be little doubt that the capitulation,
agreed upon secretly five days before
its public announcement, was con-
cluded without Berlins knowledge
and was sprung upon the world
when the victors were ready to use
it to their best advantage. The
Badoglio government not only ceases
all opposition to the Allies but also
agrees to resist attacks from any
other source There are large Ger
man land and air forces in Italy,
especially in the north. Since it is
unthinkable that they will either
surrender or tamely quit their highly
strategic positions, fighting between
them and the Italians is q logical
certainty. Indeed, the Italians will
then be literally driven into the
Allies arms to escape the vengeance
of the Teutons.
In Italy itself, everything for the
moment depends on three factors:
The strength of the German forces
there, the speed of the Allied ad-
vance and the reaction of the Italian
people. Berlin reports vast Allied
troop conveys actually at sea, which
suggests Allied landings well up the
peninsula, perhaps on both sides.
Should these occur, it is unlikely that
such German forces as may be in
Southern and Central Italy can
escape. Even in the Pc Valley,
where the bulk of the Germans are
concentrated, a mass rising of the
population might render their posi-
ton untenable. On the other hand,
the Germans can probably hold the
Italian approach to the Brenner
Pass and the Istrian land gateway
to the Balkans, which they have
effectively occupied for some time.
That is about all that they should
temporarily salvage from the wreck.
The greatest single prize which
the Allies should Immediately grasp
: from their triumph Is the Italian
fleet, including not only warships
but large merchant marine. Al
though the Germans may seize or
destroy much, the bulk of it will
presumably pass into Allied hands.
This means that the Mediterranean
will at once become an Allied lake
and that powerful naval forces will
be available for other service, in
cluding the Indian Ocean, where the
approaching end of the monsoon
season makes possible great Allied
expeditionary force against the Jap
anese In Burma and Malaga. Thus,
Italy's surrender alters the balance
of power in the most distant war
theaters.
The effect upon the Balkans, lying
just across the narrow Adriatic Sea,
should be highly explosive, while
Germanys satellites in Central
Europe, already shaken in their al
legiance, must become still more un-
reliable. The conquered peoples of
Western and Northern Europe will
inevitably ferment more violently
against their oppressors Last but
OF hn 1a 80
people itself cannot fail to sink lower
under the impact of this fresh
disaster.
OF course, we should not Jump to
the conclusion that the collapse of
the arch-enemy is just around the
corner. Not only the German
leaders but also the German people
have probably realized that Italy
was finished as an effective ally,
while the peninsula is strategically
an appendage rather than an in
tegral part of Hitler's Fortress
Europe" The immense barrier of
the Alps may preclude an Allied land
invasion from Italy. The chief
damage will come from Allied air
fleets operating from Italian bases
Still the surrender of Italy Is body
blow, especially coming in the way
it did and with the consequences
that this portends. Surveying the
shattered Berlin-Rome Axis" be-
leaguered Germany starts its fifth