Evening star., 1943-06-03
Chinese Puzzle

Heartening though the news is
| from China it leaves much to be
explained. The more one analyzes
military operations in Central China
during the past month, the less do
press dispatches and official COM
muniques accord either with the prin-
! ciples of strategy or with the pre-
liminary announcements from both
sides.
1t was in early May that the Japa-
nese launched what Chungking des-
crlbed as a general offensive in the
vital sectors between the Yangtse
River and Tungting Lake. This 100
mile front is probably the most SEN
sltlve stretch in the whole Chinese
defense system. The Yangtse is the
waterway to Chungking. Free China's
capital, some 300 miles upstream
from the port city of Ichang, the
japanese advance base. South of the
| river is an overland short cut
through mountain valleys, while still
farther to the southwark the Tung-
ting Lake region, significantly termed
China's Rice Bowl, is the chief source
of foodstuffs for Chungking and the
relatively barren mountain country
side wherein it is situated. A sue
ceSsful japanese offensive would, at
the minimum, cut regular communi-
cations between the Tungting rice
bowl and the capital, while it's maxi
mum would be the fall of Chungking
and the possible collapse of organized
Chinese resistance
Japanese spokesmen expressed
loud confidence that decisive events
were at hand, while Chungking
voiced corresponding pessimism at
the severity of the ordeal with which
their poorly equipped armies were
faced. For more than a fort
night the japanese columns made
steady though unspectacular progress
through the increasingly mountain
Gus terrain in which they were oper-
atlng. Then, about week ago, the
Chinese counter-attacked all along
the front, and report a series of vic
torres, which have regained most of
the lost ground and inflicted very
heavy losses on the enemy. Toxic
makes counter claims of big Chinese
losses, but makes no mention of fur
ther advances. So the stopping of
the japanese offensive may be pre-
Sumed.
The puzzling character of this
campaign arises from the surpris
lngly small japanese forces engaged.
Even Chungking does not estimate
the number at more than five divi-
sions-about 10000 men. Why was
major offensive launched through
such difficult country against
numerically superior Chinese forces
we'll entrenched at every point? The
bitter experiences of the japanese in
the Tungting region during the past
| tour years in repeatedly vain at
tempts to take and hold the key city
OF Changsha should have taught
them the formidable opposition to
be expected from Chinas best troops
IN even more difficult mountain
country barring the road to the
capital. 1t is to be presumed that
the Japanese high command knows
its business and would not have
undertaken a major operation with
out a reasonable hope of success.
Why then, was it ever started?
We do not yet know enough of the
undisputed facts to formulate a
satisfactory answer The Japanese
may have believed that China's war
effort had been weakened by pro-
longed strain coupled with a dis
astrous economic imitation. 1t may
even be that the operations them
selves have been exaggerated in
strategic Importance, and that the
japanese never really aimed at more
than enlarging their Ichang spear
head and disrupting food transports
to Chungking. In that case, the
recent fighting will have more tacti-
cal than strategic significance.
Another factor still to be estimated is
the degree to which the Allied
Chinese and American air arm con-
trlbuted to the Japanese setback. If
1t played a major role, it will be a
welcome harbinger of better things
to come. But it would be wise to
wait until current operations have
gone further before drawing definite
conclusions.