The Nome nugget., 1942-10-05
SIGNS POINT TO ATTACK
 BY JAPANESE ON RUSSIA
LOGIC OF THE WAR SITUATION MAY LEAD THE TOKYO WAR LORDS TO STRIKE NOW
By Nathaniel Peffer

and Mongolian plateaus Is elec- tr.c, as it has been more than once in the last 10 years. Does it mean that Russia and Japan are finally 10 lock ID the death strug gle for mastery of Northeastern Asia-the struggle so long threat ened and so often postponed?
 No one, least of all the Japa- nese and Russians, has ever be- leved that the So-called non-ag- gresslon past between them was more than a device in postpone ment It was an anomaly from the beginning and the anomaly has bordered on the grotesque since Japan's ally has been over running and devastating Russia while Japan's enemies have been giving material aid and comfort 10 Russia But t was a matter of expediency to each of the parties to the pact to put off the trial al arms, the ordeal by battle that both have accepted as inevitable. until events elsewhere could clarify it's own position. each hoping that the course of events would be such as to give 1t an advantage over the other.
 Hopes of Rivals
 Japan hoped that while it wait ed Russia would be broken by Germany while simultaneously Japan could dispose of it's own enemies. Russia hoped that Ger many would bleed itself white in the west while Japan was drain ing it's vItals Tn China.
 Meanwhile, though bound not to commit aggression against each other, both Japan and Rus sia have kept forces massed on the borders that divide them, thelr eyes alert their powder dry.
 Has the time come for de- cislon? The logic of he situation would SO indicate. and there is some internal evidence, not con elusive but indicative. that the Japanese have come to the con- clusion that il has. The evidence consists of reported Japanese troop movements in the direction of Siberia The Chinese, whose intelligence service in the kind of no-man'S land that obtains in the area bounded by Siberia, Korea, Mongolia, and Manchukuo is good, say that there have been such movements for weeks. Their own recent successes in Chekiang and Kiangsi testify that the Jap anese have been withdrawing troops from China for one pur- pose or another.
 The logic of the situation de- rlVes mainly from what is taking place in the Caucasus. It is what Japan has been waiting for - something on which to base a premise that Russia is breaking Having had two unfortunate ex- perlences in tackling the Rus san bear-once in 1888 and again in l939-the Japanese have con- cluded that 1t is the part of dis cretion to wait until he is nor tally wounded before trying him again. If the Japanese strike now it will be because they have con- cluded that Russia is about to disintegrate under the hammer blows of the German Army.
 Only Road Open
 There is one other circum- stance that constitutes almost an imperative 10 action against Rus sia now. For the moment no other theater of war is so inviting. There is almost nowhere else to go Australia has become too risky an adventure, as witness the Japanese reyerses in the Sol omon Islands and New Gu nea India is a dangerous commit ment with America's gathering power and the naval superiority with which Japan began being ro dressed by the results of the Coral Sea and Midway battles A faiEscale offensive against India must depend a95n water borne supplies, and # tac whole of the