Evening star., 1942-05-01
Australia Prepares

'oSa'0'i0 'SkOISS
The japanese triumph in Burma,
now virtually complete, raises the
question of where the next big blow
will be struck. So far as her south
ern theater of action is concerned,
Japan has a clear choice between
India and Australia. 1t is unlikely
that Japan has the strength to
launch simultaneously two such
major drives, bearing in mind her
permanent commitments in China
and the large forces immobilized on
the Siberian border. While many
factors would seem to favor a full
scale invasion of India, there are
likewise obvious deterrents to such
an undertaking, the most immedi-
ate Of them being the approach OF
the monsoon season. This would not
prevent the japanese from an at
tack on the island of Ceylon and
naval incursions across the Indian
Ocean to cut United Nations COM
munications with the Near and
Middle East. Such limited opera
tionS would leave the bulk of Japa-
nese military and air power for a
campaign against Australia, where
the Antipodean autumn offers cli-
matte advantages.
1t was against this possibility that
Prime Minister John Curtin warned
the Australian Parliament in a re-
cent address. While gladly hailing
the arrival of strong additional
American reinforcements and sup
plies, Mr.. Curtin decried undue op-
timiSm raised by American aid and
air successes against the japanese
advanced bases in New Britain, New
Guinea and Timor. He pointed out
that japanese losses, though heavy,
had not seriously depleted their
strength and that a large scale at
tack on Australia continued to be
dangerously possible Following this
pronouncement by his chief, Air
Minister Drakeford issued a warn
ing that air raids heavier than any
yet experienced might come in the
near future. 1t may be assumed
that these official cautions were
made with good reason and on the
basis of adequate knowledge.
Even though the japanese high
command may originally have in
tended to bypass Australia in favor
of more tempting detectives, the
very success with which General
Macarthur is organizing the COM
bined forces in the commonwealth
may be compelling Japan to strike
at this growing danger before it has
assumed more threatening phase
OF course, Japanese operations
against the commonwealth may
take one of three forms. The first
of these would be determined ef-
fort to knock out Port Moresby on
New Guinea and then proceed to the
capture of the northern fringe of
Australia, ranging from the Cape
York Peninsula to Port Darwin.
Once established on that isolated
fringe of the continent, Japan would
be in favorable position to block
any offensive which might later be
launched from the settled regions of
the continent, 1000 miles and more
to the southwark. This Japanese
attack on Northern Australia would
be a limited operation, essentially
defensive in character though Of
fensive in form.
The attempt to conquer Australia's
northern fringe might we'll be COM
bined with attacks on New Gale
donia, Fiji, and other South Pacific
islands which form the chief links
in the chain of American communi-
cations with Australia. II both those
operations were successful, the Anti
pOdean continent would be effec-
lively isolated and it's offensive power
against Japan could be discounted.
Far more ambitious would be an
"all-out" japanese attempt to con-
quer Australia. Considering that the
continent is as large as the United
States and that the settled south
eastern region is so remote, this
would be an immense undertaking,
requiring a great japanese army,
fleet and transport ships. Yet the
possibility should not be excluded
from strategic considerations.