Evening star., 1942-07-23
Is Siberia Next?

IBERIA? And If so, when? Those have
long been favorite themes for specu-
lation, endlessly debated pro and con.
For months spokesmen of Free China
have been predicting that the blow
was coming soon; but critics have
pointed out that such predictions
might be tinged with wishful think
ing, since war between Japan and
Russia would inevitably take much
pressure off China and thus serve as
Chungking'S ardently desired second
'front.' against it's remorseless Nip
ponese foe.
However, recent advices from Lon
don along the same line arouse less
skepticism among qualified observers
of Far Eastern affairs. According to
these British reports, Japan is all set
for the enterprise, with armies
massed in Manchuria and Northern
Korea aggregating more than 100000,
and can start its perfected war ma
chine by pressing a button in the
Toxic war Office. 1t may be useful,
therefore, to survey the basic ele-
ments of the strategic situation.
Persons versed in that part of the
world say that the best time of the
year to start campaigning be-
gins around August /. The climate
of the Russian maritime province
and the Amur Valley has a rainy
spring and early summer, but the
late summer and autumn are gen.
orally fine and dry. The deadline is
thus approaching when large-scale
mechanical warfare could most
proftably be conducted. If Japan
does mean to strike this year, the
aggressive character of japanese
grand strategy makes it probable
that the most favorable season will
be fully employed.
In such campaign the japanese
will enjoy the advantage OF interior
lines. Manchukuo thrusts north
ward like a vast blunt wedge, the
northeastern tip flanking nearly one
half of the maritime province at
whose southern tip lies Vladivostok,
Russia's chief port on the Pacific and
the terminus of the Trans Siberian
Railway Vladivostok is known to be
heavily fortified, but it lies so near
the Manchukuo and Korean from
tiers that it could be shelled by long
range japanese artillery placed at
or near the border. Again, the
Trans-Siberian Railway runs danger
ously close to Japanese-held territory
for nearly 1900 miles, and it is hard
to believe that 1t could function long
against Japanese attacks launched
at many points. During recent years,
the Russians have built a second
railway well to the northward and
hence reasonably secure against any,
thing but Japanese air attacks. This
purely strategical line has been care
fully veiled from foreign eyes and is
thus an unknown quantity.
Up to year ago, Russia main
tanned very large army in the Far
East, well equipped and supplied
mostly from local munitions facto-
ries. The long-range bombers of its
formidable air arm were. special de-
torrents to Japanese aggression, since
Vladivostok is only 700 miles by air
from the heart of Japan. But Rus
sia's desperate extremity last summer
and autumn compelled the Soviet
high command to shift part of this
Far Eastern force to meet the Ger
man menace in the west, and it is
doubtful that the gaps have been
refilled, at least in heavy materiel
and air strength. II this be so, a
japanese invasion would encounter
less opposition than at any previous
time.
Whatever the fortunes of the main
campaign in the maritime province
and the Amur Valley, the Russians
could do little to protect the vast out
lying stretches of Kamchatka which
stretch northeastward to Behring
Strait, opposite Alaska. In those
desolate regions there are neither
railways nor roads, and the japanese
Navy would command the approaches
by sea, Unsupported, the few Rus
sian settlements along the coast
presumably could be captured by
overwhelming japanese expedition
ary forces. Japan's seizure of our
outermost Aleutian Islands thus may
be preliminary to the seizure of
kamchatka rather than an invasion
of Alaska
Admiral onhNTe Ioh