Evening star., 1942-06-07
Why Leaders Hope
For Victory
By OUen L. Scott.


now is agreement among those officials
who are in close touch with the war S
trends.
This does not mean that setbacks and
disappointments are ended. Many more
are expected. Some are ahead in the
Atlantic where the Navy has not yet
solved the submarine problem. More
will come in Russia where Hitler is ex-
pected to make many gains. Others
still lie ahead in the Far East, as Japan
throws her strength around.
However, these setbacks are not to be
decisive. They will not destroy the
power of this country to turn out over
whelming quantities of war materials.
They will not result in conquest of Eng
land. They are unlikely to destroy Rus
sia's power to resist. They very prob
ably will not lead to juncture between
Germany and Japan.
The following points are being en-
phasized:
Hitler Is committed in Russia and
must make his main effort there. He
has six months in which to get decision
before another winter starts. His first
aim probably will be to reach the Volga
and cut of Russia's oil supply. He might
make it, although the odds are against
him. If he does, his losses will be i'm
mense and his armies will be further
softened by those losses. If he does not
make his goal in 1912, he will be injured
irreparably.
Great Britain and the United States
are going to be able to pound German
industry numerically in the weeks and
months ahead. This bombing will be
directed at key industries and at key
transport facilities. 1t cannot win the
war by itself but it Is going to interfere
with German production and Is going
to add to Hitler's supply problem. 1t
may be the forerunner Of air superiority
that will become the basis for growing
raids along the European coast that
sooner or later will open the way to
invasion.
Japan soon is going to begin to feel
the effect of ship and of airplane losses.
Her ability to translate her conquests
into fighting equipment is very limited.
She Is capitalizing upon her initial
strength in relation to British and Amer
ican weakness in the Far East. The Pc
riod when she can win without fighting
Is drawing to close. From now on,
submarine and air attack are going to
start to whittle down her strength.
The United States Is becoming i'm
mensely strong. This strength is going
to become overwhelming. It's full use is
interfered with at the moment by the
success Of Hitler's submarines. The ex-
pectation, however, is that the Navy will
be forced soon to give power to younger
and more vigorous officers who will deal
successfully with this problem. Once the
sea communications are cleared or i'm
proved, the full weight of American
power gradually will be brought to bear
in the war. After that the outcome will
be assured.
But the turn in the tide that now is
occurring is not sign of short war
Neither is 1t sign of an easy war ahead.
No false optimism underlies the conf
dence that officials now reflect. They
see the probability of two or two and
one-half more years of fighting before
the final decisions are reached.
widely accepted as a general guide is
the one that follows:
In 1912 Hitler will throw everything he
has into desperate try for knockout.
He will center his effort in Russia, al
though he may be forced to turn some
of this attention to England. He will
fail to destroy Russia's armies and may
lose another 100000 men as he did in
the first year of the war against Russia.
In Europe he will face the prospect of
second harvest and will be up against
bombing on vast scale.
In 1s43, Europe will be in extremely
dire straits. Another winter of suffering
will lead to widespread unrest. Produc-
ton will be on the downgrade. Air DOM
nance will be in British and American
hands. Much German strength still will
be committed in Russia. An invasion
will be under way from England. There
will be every prospect that a decision
can be had before winter. If not, how
ever, that decision should definitely be
in sight.
In 1914, main emphasis probably will
be directed against Japan The jap
anese will get attention in 1912 and 1e43
but are not likely in that period to be
the main pre-occupation of this country.
Once large scale air attack can be CEN
tered on the Japanese islands, the end
should be in sight. The reason is that
no nation offers such concentrated
target for aircraft. In another year or
two, the weight of metal that can be
deposited on targets by the use Of
American aircraft will be colossal. 1t
is that fact, plus the prospect of gradual
blockade of Japan, that leads to official
confidence that the war can be wound
up before the end of 1914.
OF course, the end may come much
sooner or it may be delayed. Every
thing suggests. however that in this
war events move quickly, once COM
plete control can be had in the air.
That control almost inevitably will pass
to this country and its Allies during
the months just ahead.
The present confidence In victory for
our side rests firmly upon one domi-
mating consideration-of all of the ma jor
industrial nations in the world, the
United States alone is assured Of free
dom from sustained attack The in
dustry of this Nation is vastly greater