Evening star., 1942-05-22

BY FREDERICK PHILLIP HELM.
If Hitler does not gain control
over the Caucasus by August or, at
the latest, by October, 1912, he may
be unable to wage offensive war
and will surely lose the initiative.
If, on the other hand, he succeeds
in conquering the Caucasus, he will
starve Russia's motorized armies
and her economy. The "scorched
earth" policy will compel him to
restart drilling, rebuild refineries
and storage facilities. refine the
crude oil, and transport the finished
products to the industrial centers
and the battle fields.
To replace the destroyed material,
1t will be necessary for him to move
the refineries and equipment from
France, Holland, Belgium and
Czechoslovakia. The alternative
would be to ship crude oil to the
idle European reflneries, but this
would involve greater transport diff
flculties and greater bombardment
risks. At best. oil resources will not
be available to Hitler before 1913.
at which time the military power Of
the Allies will have reached its full
development.
After 10 months of the Russian
campaign, there can be no doubt
Of Hitler's imperative need of the
Caucasian oil fields; he finds him
sself in the predicament Of the al
chemist who spent all his gold try
ing to make gold. To achieve his
purpose, Hitler must have new oil
supplies: and he must deprive the
Soviet Union Of hers.
Controls 10 Million Tons . Year.
Hitler controls at present . supply
Of from 10 to II million tons Of oil
per year. This figure includes the
European natural oil production of
8 million tons, the synthetic produc-
ton Of 4 million tons. and all sub
sututes- 2 million tons. Hit
ler- dominated Europe has . yearly
minimum consumption for nom
military purposes Of at least 3 mil
lion tons as compared with 20 mil
lion tons before the war.
This consumption cannot Be ~.
duced further without lowering the
productive, industrial and agricul-
tsral potential Of the Nan war ma
chine.
There remains. therefore, q yearly
supply Of from Z to 1 million ton,
with which the Axis can wage war
on all fronts.
In 1910, Russia produced about ~
million tons Of crude oil (some II pa
cent Of world production).
approximately IS per cent Of Rus.
sian oil Is produced in the Caucasus
particularly In the region Of Baku
where production reaches - million
tons. Other fields are located BE-
tween Rostov and BAku such u
Grozny and Mailop, which produce
about 5 million tons yielding good
lubricants.
Exports Dropped In 1898.
The industrialzation OF Soviet
Russia. which proceeded with the
formation Of q powerful motorized
army, and the collectiviZation OF
Russian agriculture have contributed
to make Russia the second largest
consumer Of petroleum products h
the world.
In the early thirties the Rusxanl
still exported, for reasons Of eur.
rency requirements. petroleum prod
ucts to the amount of 1 to 8 million
tons annually. In 1898, however. the
export flow had become . trickle OF
less than q million tons, with Ill
signs pointing to q complete cessa-
ton. The Soviets needed the oil fol
themselves.
Such q dependence on oil explains
the paramount importance Of safe
transport lanes from the Caucasus
to the fighting fronts Of Russia and
to the civilian hinterland.
The Germans were In Rostov on
November 70, 1941, but II they had
pressed on to Astrakhan, or even to
the bend Of the Volga near Stalin-
grad, Russia, would have been In q
desperate position which could have
been alleviated only for . few
months by the use Of the stocks
Of several millions tons Of oil in the
Urals and on the Volga.
Another Rumania.
The whole military and economic
system would have dried up, and
the Russian war would have de-
generated from modern warfare to
a sort Of Chinese guerrilla tight.
II the Germans had succeeded in
occupying the oil fields Of Gro1ny
they would have gained another
Rumania, with the advantage Of q
considerable addition OF lubricants,
since Grozny produces several hun.
dred thousand tons Of excellent lub-
ricating oils.
The military setback Of the Ger
mans in the last days Of November,
1941, averted this serious threat to
Russia and the Allies for many
months and has enabled Russia to
replenish her military and civilian
stocks in the winter months by rail
and now by the vast river and canal
system.
1t is fair to assume that when
Germany started the war In Sep
tember, 1899, she had an inventory
of from 5 to 7 million metric tons
mainly of foreign oils. They were
accumulated from oversee imports
which rose steadily until the out
break Of the war. Since consump-
ton was satisfied from the increased
output of domestic crude and syn
thetic oils, Germany reserved her
imported oils for war purposes.
Remarkable Feat.
A conservative estimate Of Eu-
ropes production of crude oil Is Z
million tons annually. Contributor
are Rumania 1000, 900 tons, Ger
many 100000 tons, Poland 500 ,000
tons, Albania 800, 900 tons. Hungary
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