Evening star., 1942-08-04

~. y. UuO OHlUlIl
In 40 Days UnI'
BY LELAND STOWE,
FOREIGN Correspondent Of The Star and
Chicago Daily News
MOSCOW. Aug At Is time to
face the facts. The hour glass OF
the Anglo-American democracies is
lower than it has ever been since
the Declaration OF Independence.
Both the United States and Britain
can lose this war in the next 40
days. r In any case. both the United
States and Britain are in immedi-
ate danger of losing this war.
This is not hysteria. We need
only consider what is now in jeop-
ardy and what may happen-what
threatens to happen-by September
Is. Unless American and British
armed forces do something about 1t.
Germany's Russian offensive needs
only to smash onward at the pace
it maintained throughout July for
another 20 days. If the southern
armies of Field Marshals Fedor Won
Book and Paul Ludwig Won Kleist
do that. 1t must be taken for granted
that by mid September the Nazis
will have conquered all Of northern
Caucasus and seized priceless Rus
sian oil fields and refineries at
Grozny and Baku. That would give
the Nazis' war machine control OF
more than three times as much OH
production as they now have IN Ru-
mania, more than twice what Iran
produces annually and five times as
much as the Mosul fields IN Iraq
produce annually.
Oil Is Not Only Stake.
The oil of Baku and Grozny alone
might enable Hitler to win the war.
It is therefore the plainest state
ment of fact to say that the future
existence of the American and Brit
ish democracies depends on Ger
manv's defeat in the Caucasus. But
Russia's vast petroleum prize Is only
one of many tremendous war 1ac-
tors at stake in the Caucasus. Inc
whole Allied world system Is linked
unalterably to the Caucasus. II the
Caucasus falls, every American or
British front or stronghold IN tne
Near East, in Africa, In India ana
In the Far East falls or totters WIN
it.
suppose there is no Anglo Ameri-
can second front in Western Europe
this month, and supposing the Nazis
have conquered the Caucasus oy
mid September. What will be the
inevitable results?
Here are a few Of them:
Turkey, seeing that the British
and Americans haze made no move
to Aid Russia and save the Caucasus.
will almost certainly throw IN lts
lot with the Nazis. The Turks Will
be surrounded on three sides by
German occupied territories and
Hitler will be able to o1er them
rich rewards in Soviet Armenia
and Syria. The Turks would be
fools not to Jump at the chance.
Trans Loss Feared.
If the Nazis win the Caucasus,
strong pro-German elements in Iran
will be completely unleashed. 1t
will be extremely unlikely that the
much Russian and British
forces can continue to hold Iran for
long. If Hitler is permitted to seize
the Caucasus the whole Allied posi-
ton in Syria, Palestine and 1raq Will
be seriously undermined and Ger
many's hands freed-probably IN
collusion with Turkish divisions-to
annex these lands and all Mosuls
oil in an autumn or early winter
campaign.
n the Caucasus falls for lack Of
AngIo American intervention IN
Western Europe, the British and
American positions in Egypt, along
the Suez and even Eritrea will be
most gravely exposed. II the NaMs
elect simply to hold their lines In
Russia, they can let loose over
whelming forces on Egypt at any
time from October on, and there Is
no reason to believe that, II the
British could barely stop Nazi Field
Marshal Erwin Rommel at Alexan-
dria's gates in early July. they can
stand of an infinitely greater on
slaught in another few months.
II the Caucasus Is permitted to
fall. the final isolation of India will
be virtually assured to the Axis
partners. That, almost surely, will
be the signal for Japan to invade
India as soon as the rainy season
ends, in the autumn or before.
How to reinforce India when
Iran, Syria and Egypt are all under
a new, tremendous menace?
Second Front Only Answer.
These are not pipe dreams. They
are inescapable strategic and pollt-
ical consequences OF any Allied
failure to save the Caucasus-and
save 1t at the only time 1t can be
saved. This month-now.
Through the Caucasus, Nazi Ger
many and Japan have the highest
hopes and brightest prospects OF
linking together their land, sea and
air forces around more than half OF
the world. Once the Germans hold
the Caucasus, nothing after that,
neither Iran nor India, would be
half as dimcult. Both the Nazis
and the Japanese know this per
fectly well. And the chances for
their success depend chiefly, almost
entirely, on the British and Ameri-
cans failing to act and failing to
open a second front in time.
If the Germans are permitted to
conquer the Caucasus, they have
the soundest reasons to expect tt
have the British and Americans vir-
tuauy without a battlefield on which
to fight by next spring. They have