Evening star., 1942-04-12
Lons-Ronee Optimism
Supported by Facts
By OUen L. Scott.

A note OF optimism over the long g-range
war outlook is beginning to be sounded
by Informed officials here. This opti-
mism on the part Of oficials who have
been pessimistic is heavily tempered by
short-range gloom.
Right now the American war effort is
seriously interfered with by merchant
ship losses. The Navy, after being
foughly handled by the Japanese in the
Pacific, is unable as yet to provide an
answer to German submarines operating
along the American coast in the Atlantic.
One result is that unless this situation
is altered quickly, the United States will
work all year and will end 1912 with no
more available tonnage of merchant
ships than at the start of the year. That
certainly is no ground for optimism.
Neither Is the continued ease with which
Japan makes gains nor the fact that
Germany Is about set for her supreme ef-
fort In Russia
But optimism traces to other, more
fundamental factors. One set Of these
factors affects Germany and the other
set affects Japan.
In the case Of Germany. the Hitler
military machine has passed its peak
strength. Omcials believe that, conserv-
atively, the German Army has lost L.
O00, 900 dead In Russia and probably twice
that number wounded. That Army now
faces another immense effort in which
losses again will be very heavy. A bat
tering of that kind cannot but have a
softening effect even If the other side Is
defeated.
Then, too, German industry has
reached and passed its maximum level Of
war production. That industry has worn
out much of its machinery. 1t has drawn
upon European industry for all of the
machines, materials and men that it will
be able to draw upon. Army demands for
man power have drained OF many of
German industry's skilled workers and
many Of Its managers. The result Is that
Germanys war production is likely to
point downward rather than upward.
In the case of Japan, the Nipponese by
their conquests have access to the oil
that is vitally important to their war
effort. Yet, in gaining that access Japan
has suffered losses of aircraft and Of war
vessels and of merchant ships that will
be difficult for her to replace with her
small industry.
Likewise, the Japanese have extended
their communication lines over 5000
miles Of sea. They must police those
lines and must expect to suffer increas-
ingly heavy losses in that job as Amer.
lean forces are mobilized and seriously
begin to move into action. Japan cannot
build the factories and make the ma
chinery that would enable her to utilize
in a hurry the raw material riches that
now are In her grasp. She faces an
enemy who is Just beginning to get set
to deliver her blows.
In fact, the growing long-range opti-
mism reflected here traces to what is
happening In the United States.
There is optimism concerning the
Navy. This optimism at the moment Is
based on the fact that bureaucratic dead
wood is being showed out of the way.
There is more streamlined command.
There also is final recognition of the fact
that the airplane is an offensive as well
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The aircraft carrier is going to get the
attention that the japanese already
have given it.
Further, the Nays warship building
program is beginning to produce results.
The months ahead are to see large ad-
dition to the forces that will be able to
carry on both offensive and defensive op-
erations. Once this building program
really Is in full swing there will be moth
ing that Japan can do to catch up. 1t Is
the same with aircraft. Once adequate
patrol ships are available the submarine
problem may respond to treatment. AS
1t Is now, the Germans are having reg
ular Roman holiday on this side Of the
Atlantic.
There is even more optimism concern
ing the new American Army than there
is concerning the Navy.
This Army started from scratch and
with no idea that it was the best in the
world. It's young officers are being drawn
directly from the ranks rather than be-
ing selected on an "old school tie" basis
and imposed from above. It's organiza-
ton and methods must be new because
the problem is new and there was no old
fashioned organization of any size upon
which to build.
Likewise, the Army is beginning now to
get weapons in large quantities. These
weapons are the most modern and have
been found In actual combat to be highly
effective. The new Army is to be highly
mechanized, highly motorized and with
a proportionately larger air force than
any other army. It still is small in num-
bers and even this rather small force still
Is without actual war experience. But
this Army is coming up at time when
the armies of the enemy are being worn
down.
Optimism about the long-range
strength of both the American Army and
American Navy is based In important
part upon its weapons.
Actual battle experience shows:
In aircraft the American ships are far
superior to the Japanese and are at least
equal to the German. type for type. 1t
is reported oficially that the Army Air
Force has shot down five Japanese planes
for every American plane lost. The
Nays record is at least as good. Amer
ican aircraft engaged in these encom-
ters, except for flying fortresses, are
not of really late model. Once the new
model planes come into action in large
numbers the Japanese will be left far be-
hind and the Germans will be hard
pressed.