Evening star., 1942-06-26
Outlook in Egypt

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Since Prime Minister Churchill! is
not in the habit of minimizing Brit
ish reverses or of indulging in overly
optimistic predictions, his repeatedly
confident attitude toward the situa-
ton in Egypt, despite steady ad-
vances eastward by Rommel's forces,
provides some measure of reassur-
anc to those who are alarmed by
the Middle East developments. Con-
gressional leaders came away from
their conference at the White House
displaying evident satisfaction at
what they had learned. Mr.. Churchill
was represented as asserting that
Egypt and the Suez Canal would be
held against the worst that Rommel
could offer.
Whether the Prime Minister was
expressing determination rather than
venturing a prophecy is not known.
1t is of interest to note that his
cheerful view of the crisis in Egypt is
III SlldI - tOllIl aoO W tiiN ICllol VA lilOob
of the news dispatches emanating
from Cairo and London since the fall
of Tobruk. Experienced correspond
ents in Cairo apparently regard the
Axis capture of Tobruk as military
disaster of the first magnitude, paw
ing the way for grave threats to
Alexandria, Cairo and the canal. OF
course, these writer's are not in pos
session of all the military infOrma-
ton to which Mr.. Churchill has &C
cess Lacking a broad picture Of the
situation, they may be inclined to
assign too much Importance to i'm
mediate gains by the Axis.
AS a matter of fact, the British
forces in Egypt today are in approx
mately the same position that they
were late in 1910, when Marshal
Graziani's Italian columns drove to
Sidi Barrani and prepared for an all
out thrust toward Alexandria. At
that time the British were ready TO
take a stand at Mersa Matruh, key
Strongpoint of Egypt's western de-
fense system. MerSa Matruh. small
port city about 200 miles west OF
Alexandria. was heavily fortified
even then. and undoubtedly has been
considerably strengthened since that
time This outpost is especially valu
able because it is connected by rail
and highway with Alexandria and
Cairo. Over the railroad may be
moved heavy artillery Of calibers
which could not readily be trans
ported over sands of the desert in
any other way.
With the loss of Tobruk, and with
Rommels forces still pressing for
ward relentlessly, it would be natural
for the British to fall back to their
main defenSes at MerSa Matruh,
rather than attempt to hold an un-
prepared line farther west. They
know that at Mersa Matruh they will
have excellent supply lines. while the
communication lines of the enemy
will be seriously extended over most
unfavOrable territory.
1t was such a tenuouS stretching Of
supply lines that brought disaster to
Marshal Grazjani in December OF
1910. If the harbor installations OF
Tobruk were destroyed as effectively
as the British claim they were, Field
Marshal Rommel will have to depend
largely on long supply routes extend
ing far behind him, or on airborne
reinforcementS Because Of the sup
ply problem, he undoubtedly will seek
to achieve a quick conquest of Egypt
by blitzkrieg methods. There is some
possibility that he may try to circum-
vent British defense strategy by de-
touring to the south of MerSa Matruh
and riSlling a thrust through the life
less Libyan desert. The obstacles of
terrain and supply that would con-
front him there would be enormous.
Experience has shown, however, that
it is dangerous to underestimate the
resourcefulness of the enemy.
Prime Minister Churchill probably
was taking into account all the diff
cultieS which from now on will work
to the disadvantage of the German
Italian Army when he spoke encour-
agingiy of British prospects in Egypt.
The next few weeks should show to
what extent his OptimiSm was