Evening star., 1942-11-10

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In Laboratory, Field
And Study
By Thomas r. Henry.
Astrologers will be predicting dire days
for mankind in 1948
They may be right-but astronomers
are keeping their fingers crossed.
In one of the few scientific reports
that have come out Of wartime Europe,
DR.. w. Gleissberg, 4 German refugee
who now is professor of astronomy at
the University of Istanbul. Turkey, pre-
diets that in six years will come the
stormiest days on the surface Of the sun
for nearly two centuries-with all the at
tendant minor troubles to be seriously
expected and possibly = lot of others
foreseen by harbingers OF evil.
In 1948, according to his statistical
calculations, which admittedly may be 4
few months out Of the way in either di-
rection, will come the next sunspot
maxima, the elimination OF a long cycle
Of sunspot periods. Also, he says, there
will be no gradual approach to this
maximum, as Is normally expected. 1t
will come quite suddenly.
DR.. Gleissberg's report on his work has
just been issued in the Astrophysical
Journal of the University of Chicago, and
it is described by Prof. Otto Struve, di-
rector of the Yerkes and Mcdonald OBJ
servatories, as a work of outstanding
merit. In Istanbul, Of course, the exiled
German astronomer had little oppor-
tunity for observations of the sun since
there Is no worthwhile observatory there.
He relied on mathematical analysis of
past observations, coupled with the we'll
known cycle theory of sun-spottedness.
DR.. Gleissberg calculates that the
probability Is better than nine to one
that the period during which the sunspot
cycle will rise from low value, as at
present, to its maximum will be shorter
than 50 months.
spots, radio transmission over long dis
tances will be poor, and static will be
conspicuous. Magnetic disturbances also
will be frequent. causing increased diff
Guilty for navigators. The northern lights
would be frequent and bright. Electrical
disturbances in power transmission lines
and telephone wires will be of serious
proportions.
There probably will be effects on the
weather, although the likelihood of these
has not been definitely established.
Droughts, for some reason never salts
factorily determined, appear to accom-
pany sunspot maximums. That there
are certain drought cycles can be estab-
Nshed by records reaching far into the
past-the width of the annual rings of
trees, the depth of the debris left by
retreating glaciers. Certain animals, such
as the Jennings Of the Far North, seem
to fluctuate in numbers with the sunspot
cycle.
Sunspots have been Of interest to
astronomers since Calico first observed
the sun through the newly invented
telescope and found that the surface was
mottled, with many black spots Of irregu-
lar shape.
In 1874 the German astronomer
Schwabe discovered that these spots on
the sun vary in numbers and intensity
with q rough periodicity Of II years.
This, however, is only an average. The
period may be As short as seven or as
long as IA years, and the length Of any
one cycle cannot be very reliably pre-
dicted.
merous in 1916, 1927 and 1887. They
were low In 1922 and 1925. After the
1887 maximum, activity remained strong
for the next two years. 1t now Is rela-
lively low.
There are all sorts of fantastic sunspot
theories, without much factual basis,
which can neither be positively disproved
nor proved. The maxima, for example,
tend roughly to coincide with major
wars-but only roughly. The last World
War was two years old at the time Of
the 1916 maxima. The present one sue
ceeded by few months the decline Of
the last one. And. Of course. there is
war of some sort in the world most Of
the time.
1t is rather far-fetched to speculate
on even the most indirect and tenubus
effect of something which happens 93.-
100000 miles away on human nervous
systems and the genesis Of human
emotions.
Still it can be done. These sunspots
generally are considered As titanic
cyclones in the flaming solar atmosphere
and they constantly are rent by great
explosions from the inferno below. From
these explosions vast streams Of particles
are shot out into space. The particles
presumably are electrons and protons.
They strike the earth's outer atmosphere
and may penetrate far toward the sur
face-ionizing air molecules and tearing
holes In the electrical roof Of the world
through which radio waves escape.
1t may be that the constitution Of the
whole sea of air in which man lives Is
subtly altered in ways not yet detected,
and this may effect nervous reactions, as
well as animal abundance and weather
But 1t is certain that such speculations
are on the far edge of probability.
Comments on Senator Norris Defeat
And Argues That Nebraska May Regret.
To the Editor Of The star:
Senator Norris, that statesman of "the
]iohtAA mind fnr An vnar. . o{on A>rino q