Evening star., 1942-06-03
Japs Believed Ready
To Resume Activity
In Coral Sea Area
Step-by-Step Conquest Of
IsIonds to Fiji Group
Seen Likely Purpose
BY BILL BONI,
Wide World Military Editor.

q combination OF circumstances the
war in the Pacific has been rele-
gated to a comparatively Subordi-
nate position in recent weeks. But
there are very definite indications
that the Japanese, now engaged
chiefly In Eastern China, are by no
means planning to settle down and
consolidate their present conquests.
There is every likelihood that, de-
spite their setback in the Coral Sea,
they already are prepared to re-
sumo operations in that theater on
major scale-eiming not at any
ATTEMPTED invasion of Australia but
rather at a step-by-step conquest
of the island chain leading from
New Britain southeastward to the
key Fiji Island group.
Such q move, its objective self
evidently the severance of our sup
ply lines to Australia, would seek
to attain that goal by outflanking
the United States-manned base on
New Caledonia.
Risk Of Flank Attack.
1t would, of course, entail some
risk from a flank attack from that
base. But 1t also would have the
advantage which lies with the jap
anese almost everywhere in the
Southwest Pacific, the enormous
edge Of having interior lines OF COM
munication behind their protective
screen of island bases which extend
south and east from Japan itself
for thousands of miles and.
through their conquests in less than
six months, now also run from
Sumatra and Singapore in the west
to New Britain in the east.
Behind that huge screen there is
o vast area in which the japanese
can set their offensives in motion,
and can do so virtually without
danger Of Allied observation. Thus
attempting to discover the direction
of the enemy's next move must be
as difficult a problem for Gen.
Macarthur and his staff as prepar-
ing to meet that move when 1t
comes-one reason, possibly, why the
Japanese were able to send their
midget submarines into Sydney
Harbor.
The other Japanese threat ema-
mates from the opposite, or northern,
end of the enemy sphere Of inf1u-
ence"-the very real danger Of re-
taliatory, face-saving air attacks
against our Pacific Coast.
A strong warning of that danger
was sounded recently by Secretary
of War Stimson. West Coast Army
commanders, it is known, are fol-
lowing up that warning to the fullest
extent, with the problem Of guard
ing against civilian panic their most
difficult task.
The Japanese still are trying to
find out where Brig. Gen. Jimmy
Doolittle and the other Toxic raiders
came from, and where they landed
after their attack. Any enemy at
tack against the West Coast would,
presumably, have to be carried out by
carrier-based planes.
Is Divisions in Home Islands.
The bulk of Japan's' military
strength, according to the best avail
able information, now is centered
In Korea, Manchukuo and Northern
China-some IS divisions of combat
troops out Of the total of between
100 and 110 which the enemy now
Is believed to have under arms. A
japanese division is said to number
1000 or 10000 men.
Probably Is divisions, of which five
or six either are not fully trained or
fully equipped, are stationed in the
home islands. In Central and South
China, where the Japanese now are
most active, and on the island of
Formosa they have an estimated 10
to IL divisions, with four in the
Philippines compared to just less
than 100000 troops at the height of
that campaign; a dozen in the
Dutch East Indies and the adjacent
islands. and 10 to II spread over
M alaya, Indo-China, Thailand,
Burma and Yunnan Province in
China.
From their present strength in
Burma and the adjoining territory,
1t appears unlikely that the invaders
plan either any intensification Of
their campaign there nor any imme-
diate attack on India. Such an. at
tack, military experts believe, would
be preceded by an assault on Cey-
Ion, necessary to free the Japanese
for operations in the Bay of Bengal
and as yet there have been no re-
ports Of the naval concentrations
that would be required for a move
against Ceylon.
Informed observers also minimize
the possibility of any imminent out
break OF war between Japan and
Russia. Russia doesn't want it and
Japan doesn't want it, they argue,
although Japan might be tempted
to strike if Germany's full-scale
offensive in the Ukraine, expected
to be launched at any moment,
should meet with such success as to
send the Russian bear reeling
against the ropes.
Japan Better Prepared.
80 Tar as Is known, Japan is bet
ter prepaded for such a war than
Russia. Her troops in Manchukuo
and North China which could be
moved into action rapidly are said
to outnumber the Russian Siberian
force. While the Japanese have no
considerable air strength on the
ground. they long since have moved
in the necessary supplies of fuel and
spare parts and established the
bases, SO that it would mean only
bringing in the bombers and fight