Evening star., 1942-06-19
Nv MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.


The naval action in the Mediter-
ranean appears to have been almost
a deliberate sacrifice of Italian naval
units in a desperate and, on the
whole, successful attempt to pre-
vent British reinforcements reach
ing Tobruk. The Italian losses
seern to have been heavy, but the
important thing for the moment
is that a great part of the REIN
forcements and supplies were de-
stroved or turned back.
The Germans made heavy naval
sacrifices in tie Norwegian cam
paign, but the Norwegian campaign
was a German victory. The CAM
paign in Libya may turn out ike
wise.
Certainly at the moment the
forces of Marshal Rommel are gain
ing ground. The fall of Bir Hach-
elm opened the way for the out
f1anking and overrunning OF the
main British defense positions be-
tween Bir Hacheim and Ain ell Ga5-
ala, and this being done, Rommei
pressed his advantage rapidly, ad-
vancing from the west and SOUTH
west of Tobruk.
This British stronghold now ap-
pears to be virtually surrounded,
maintaining only one tenuouS line
of communications with the Egyp-
tian frontier along the coastal road.
It may be that a new siege OF To-
hruk is in immediate prospect, but
If Rommel is in sufficient force he
certainly will try to bypass Tobruk
and continue the pursuit of the re-
tiring British toward Egypt.
Thus we may find the Axis forces
once more hammering at Sollum
and Halfaya Pass or even once more
penetrating Egyptian territory.
Supply Is Big Factor.
We should keep in mind, however,
that as in all the fighting that has
taken place in this part of the world
the real problems are those of sup
ply and maintenance, and these
problems tend to increase very rap
idly as distance from established
bases increases.
, has been the western high-Water
mark for British advances and Sidi
Barrani the eastern high-water
mark for Axis advances. At these
points the increasing strength of the
defense, as its lines of communica-
tions shortened, and the decreasing
strength of the offenSe, as its lines
heightened, have tended to bring
about an equilibrium and brought
operations to Standstlll. 1t may
very we'll be so again.
Indeed, were no few factors to be
introduced, were the old familiar
patterns and the old familiar meth
ods to be repeated without change,
one could have little hesitation in
predicting that this would be the
outcome and that the Axis would
gain nothing more than the rather
empty success of a return to the
Egyptian frontier and the renewed
& isolation of Tobruk.
But there can be no certainty that
new factors will not make their
appearance. Indeed, the Germans
already have introduced one, in
their long-sustained air offensive
against Malta. which appears to
have allowed Marshal Rommel to
collect a stronger striking force
than he has ever had before.
A new factor on the Allied side is
the appearance of the American
long-range bombers which have
struck so heavily and successfully
at the Italian feet and which may
now be employed to hammer the
German communications at Tripoh
or Bengasi. A third new factor ap-
pears to be a technical superiority
of certain of the heavier German
tanks. though the Germans have
in general enjoyed superiority in this
respect.
Other Surprises Possible.
It is altogether possible that the
Axis may find still further elements
of novelty to introduce. For exam
pie. we should not wholly discount
the chance of an air-borne landing
on the Egyptian coast behind the
British lines. an operation which
could be based on Crete and might
prove highly disruptive.
On the whole, the outcome OF the
Libyan fighting probably will depend
on air superiority, and the side
which can send into the crucial area
the largest forces of aircraft will
prevail.
If the British can hold Tobruk
and stop any outfanking advance
at the frontier they have no great
canse for anxiety But there is no