Evening star., 1942-09-03
Is Siberia Next?

- ~tbSt0 t$SAt.
The resignation of Shigenori Togo
as Minister of Foreign Affairs and
the assumption of that office by
Premier TOTO is widely interpreted as
the prelude to Japanese attack on
Siberia. That is the Interpretation
by spokesmen of Free China, whose
intelligence service has long con-
sldered such an attack a virtual
certainty. Along the same line, our
own General Stilwell, commander of
American forces in the Far East
states publicly from his headquarters
at New Delhi, India, that there is "a
good chance" of Siberia being in
vaded. All the evidence points to the
fact that Japan's famous Kwantung
Army on the Siberian border is being
heavily reinforced, presumably in
part by the veteran troops and planes
which have been so mysteriously
moved out of Central China during
the past month
The personalities involved in this
cabinet shift further tend to
strengthen this theory. Ex-Minister
Togo is moderate minded career
/ diplomat whose latest foreign post
was his ambassadorship to Moscow
from 1888 to 1910, during which time
he negotiated an understanding of
the chronic Russo-Japanese dispute
over Mongolia and later paved the
way for the present on-aggression"
treaty which still technically holds.
Mr.. Togo is credited with being in
favor Of continuing the present
status.
On the other hand, Premier Toto
has always been bellicose toward
Russia and insistent upon Japan's
obtaining possession of the Pacific
coast of Siberia, the standing threat
to Japanese home security, especially
by air. In this he voices the basic
aim of the Kwantung Army generals
whom he emphatically represents
There can be scant question that, so
far as his ideas and feelings are
concerned, the saber-rattling Premier
favors the conquest of Eastern ST.
IBERIA as an ultimate goal
However, it would be unWise to put
Siberia down as an immediate GER
taintyl on. Japanss conquest list. In
the first place, lit is not akJapanese
custom to advertise an impending
stroke. On the contrary, japanese
diplomacy usually Taaskst its real
intentions by attracting attention
somewhere else-as Toxic did with
Indo-China and Thailand while plan
ming the stab at Pearl Harbor. Japan
could risk "war of nerves" on Rus
sia, because the Soviet Union is in no
position to retaliate. There have
been rumors that Toxic has been
pressing Moscow to implement" the
Russo-Japanese aggression pact
by giving guarantees" in the shape
of permitting a japanese occupation
of Northern Sakhalin, Kamchatka
and the Maritime Province with
Vladivostok. Taking advantage of
Russias dire necessity, japanese di-
| plomacy may actually hope to gain
those longed-for objectives without
| fighting for them.
Another line of speculation is that
| Togo's removal from the Foreign
Ministry and Premier Tojo's direct
assumption of heAconduct of foreign
policy may be a step toward virtual
dictatorship, either personal or as
head of an ultra -militarist clique,
which would relegate the Emperor to
decorative impotence and thus re-
vive the historic Shogunate under
slightly different forms. TOTO is re-
ported to be highly ambitious, and
his arrogance is we'll known. The
examples of his Axis partners, Hitler
and Mussolini, cannot have been lost
upon him.
All these are, of course, mere sur
misses. The important point to note
is the complexity and obscurity of
the situation at Toxic, which renders
possible such diverse interpretations
of the meager facts which are known.
Until something definite happens
either in the diplomatic or military
sphere, the proper attitude would
seem to be watchful alertness which
| F@,