Evening star., 1942-07-13
Population Planning
Held Needed for Peace
Writer Argues That 'Soton'
Of Axis Nations Is Result
Of Needless Breeding
To the Editor OF The Star:


To the Editor OF The Star:
We have read with interest Vice Presi-
dent Henry A. Wallaces little book, THE
Price of Free World Victory" in which
he says Through the leaders of the
Nazi revolution, Satan now is trying to
lead the common man of the whole world
back into slavery and darkness"
Let us see if we can account for this
Satan through purely natural forces.
It is true that Mr.. Wallace says that
illiteracy and lack of experience in self
government play important parts in the
promotion of war and the rise to power
of dictators, but the Germans are not
an illiterate people and they have lived
right next to Switzerland, which is one
of the oldest democracies in the world.
1t is interesting to note that the Ger
mans, the Japanese and the Italians all
attribute this war to overpopulation and
the lack of adequate living space" But
have they any idea of how this "devip'
of overpopulation works? Through re-
Gently discovered tools of science such
as knowledge of age composition, life
tables and refined natural increase rates,
we now have learned some of the decep-
tive tricks of the devil" of overcrowding.
The evolution of the problem of war
and dictators caused by overcrowding of
population may be explained something
like this: A nation begins to increase
rapidly in population when everything
looks bright. Perhaps industrialization
has enabled a nation to support more
people at a somewhat higher level OF
living. First there is an increase in the
child population due to high birth rate
or to low infant death rate or both. AS
time goes by the children grow into
young men and young women. When
this begins to happen there is an in
creasingly larger proportion of the popu-
lation in the productive, military and
child-bearing ages. Productive capacity
per capita Gas far as age is concerneD
increases, there are larger numbers ready
for the army each year and larger
proportion of the population in the child
bearing ages has tendency to increase
the birth rate still higher. So far, so
good
Unfortunately, this is only part of the
story. In due time the young people
created by the first upward surge of
population begin to grow old and de-
pendent, and, If the birth rate is not
kept high to produce a bumper crop of
oncoming youths, soon there will be an
abnormally large proportion of oldsters.
On the other hand. If the birth rate is
kept high the total population soon
reaches the must expand or explode"
stage. incidentally, a high birth rate
now produces many more births than in
former years because the population is
much larger) The nation then Is
trapped. 1t Is caught between the
devil "a war for conquest and the
deep blue sea (becoming an old and
senile people,.
When a nation reaches the explosive
population stage it is ripe for the die
tator or would-be conqueror. The ma
ton is so crowded that there is good
excuse for regimentation to keep "law
and order" AS population pressure be-
comes more intense, the clever dema-
gogue who promises to cure the miseries
of the people can gain attention and
power. One of the first things the die
tator calls for Is a higher birth rate.
This practically assures an attempt at
war for conquest.
The would-be conqueror may try to
justify his population expansionist pro-
gram by playing up the fear of race
suicide" and the fear that the nation
will grow old and senile. He refers to
his own people as vigorous, prolific
and young nation" destined for grandeur.
On the other hand, he constantly refers
to neighboring lower birth rate coun-
tries as has been" powers. In due time,
the dictator adds the claim that his
people are race of "supermen" blessed
by the Almighty with exceptional hered-
ity. Having established" this point, the
| dictator reasons that such a superior
| people should inherit the earth. This is
| f1attering to the ears of the regimented
| followers, and finally the stage is set for
the saber-rattling demagogue to lead his
''long suffering" people into war for
the "just" distribution of the worlds re-
| sources
When the United Nations finally win
this war they will be confused with a
troublesome and complex problem of ex-
cess population in many countries of the
world, particularly the Axis group. The
| problem of working out both satisfac-
tory age composition and a satisfactory
size total population for many countries
will require the most efficient program of
population planning for at least so years
AS overcroWded as many countries are
today they are almost certain to become
more crowded during the next half Gen.
tury even with the most thoughtful and
efficient program of population planning
Studies have shown that 1t takes about
two generations, period Of nearly 60
| years, to stabilize the age composition OF
a people, assuming the continuation OF
the same true rate of natural increase
And even If the true rate of natural in
crease were just high enough for the
proportion of the population in the
child-bearing age to reproduce itself. the
| populations of many countries, including
| the United States, would continue to ex-
pand for a period of two generations or
nearly so years. The United States
might be able to solve the problems
which would arise from a % per cent
increase in population, but such a per-
centage increase in the populations OF
such countries as Japan and Italy, not te
| roeptiop China apd India would ren,Iire