Evening star., 1942-08-23

It is curious that the patient hand
maiden of mathematics, so essential to
he waging of modern warfare, remains
wholly uninvoked by those who seek to
a regime OF durable peace.
In anticipation of later military serv-
Is out on limb amid the lower branches
Of the subject. But in all the numer-
ous blueprints of postwar worlds so
far made public, the assistance of the
most impartial and exact of science Is
ignored. Since the broad utility of
is scarcely to be denied, it
may be that the omission reflects on the
planners rather than on Euclid.
distractions like democracy and lib
erty, freedom, justice and civilization,
will play large part in the winning Of
the war. They have done so in all pre-
vious conflicts and it Is sign of advanc-
ing ethics that moral values are now
more fervently invoked than ever before.
But moralizing at the expense of the
enemy will do little to establish a firm
peace to follow the war.
That goal will be achieved only If the
issue Is clearly visualized not in terms
of nationalistic propaganda, but as a
laboratory problem. If solution is sought.
the problem must first be stated in I'M
emotional and scientific terms So far,
most men will agree, even precise def
milton of the problem is lacking. Yet we
speak of political science. And If there
Is any justification in the use of that
noun, there is no need to apologize for
use Of scientific method.
Finding Number Of Possible Wars.
While laying no claim to skill in math-
ematics, it seems to the writer that
through the agency of simple algebraic
formula some progress can be made.
What we seek at the outset Is informa-
ton on the scope of our problem, which
is the number OF wars at any moment
possible under the present system Of
unrestricted national sovereignty. And
this useful information is available trom
the equation tx" is equal to IN" multi
piled by N minus 1" divided by 20" in
which IN" stands for the number OF
states possessing unquestionable authori-
ty to make war upon any other state.
The Political Handbook OF the World,
issued annually by the Council on For.
eign Relations in New York, lists in it.
current issue II countries with "inde.
pendent political regimes"
It is true that this extensive list in.
cludes Monaco, with an area Of 370 acres
and Nepal, succinctly described a. ,
military oligarchy." But the list doe,
not include Albania, Estonia, Ethiopia
Latvia and Lithuania, whose govern.
ments are said to be temporarily de.
stroyed." In any event, II seems, on the
basis Of this authority, q reasonable mum.
Der to substitute for N" in the abege
formula.
When that IS done, x=71x35 or 2,4S5
In other words, 2,485 is the seemingly in.
credible number Of wholly separate anc
distinct wars which may theoretically be
waged simultaneously in the world o1
AID. 1912. And If we do justice to the
feelings of Albania, Estonia, Ethiopia
Latvia and Lithuania, by restoring tt
them also the sovereign right of wagine
war, the number Of possible conflicts
leaps up to 1850.
Possibilities, Not Probabilities.
OF course, such q complete riot of hos
tilities will not actually occur. Our for.
mula. with the Olympian aloofness O
mathematics, regards war between Halt
and China as being no less possible thai
war between England and Germany
Since the British dominions are self
governing it also envisages the possibilit!
OF war between Canada and Australia
just as much as one between Yugoslavi,
and Italy. The formula Is not concerned
with probabilities, but with possibilitie
IN a world Of sovereign states.
Even SO, and even making allowance
for coalitions and alliances which in
creasingly tend to merge all separat,
conflicts into single blaze, the pictur
Is discouraging enough from the view
point OF those who seek the way to ,
more stable world order. The principl,
OF self-determination takes on a les
roseate aspect when 1t is realized hov
greatly, In each separate application, i
increases the mathematical chances o
war.
Confronted with the implications o.