Evening star., 1942-12-27
Shortages Compel
Rigid Rotioning
By Ouen L. Scott.

Belt-tlgnCenlng Time IOr clVllaNs
really is beginning to come into sight.
This is not another false alarm, not an
other warning far ahead of the event.
Officials for more than a year have
been predicting that the public would
be forced to revise its living standard
downward Instead, the Nation has en-
joyed more Of almost everything during
one full year of war. The result is that
predictions are going at heavy dis
count and people are refusing to take
seriously the developing shortages that
this time are real.
During a large part Of 1912, civilian
industry went ahead with production of
most peacetime products. Inventories of
raw materials in the hands Of these
industries were large. The tendency of
War Production Board officials was to
talk about curtailment but actually to do
relatively little about it. AS a result,
store inventories of goods continued to
rise until September when they were the
largest on record.
At the same time farmers were pro-
ducing bumper crops of food. Military
demand for that food was rising but not
as rapidly as 1t now Is rising. Civilian
demand. too, was rising, but not as rap
idly as 1t is to rise.
Two forces now are at work which
soon will jolt people generally into an
understanding of what real shortages
can mean.
One of those forces is rapid increase
in demand both from military services
and from former low-income civilian
groups. The other Of the forces Is
rapid decline in civilian supply due in
part to the rising military demand and
in part to the actual reduction in the
volume of goods being produced. The
War Production Board Is engaged in
drastic curtailment Of the volume of raw
materials available for civilian industry.
At the same time, demands OF the Army
and Of war industry for men is cutting
deeply into the working forces of civilian
industry.
AS a consequence two developments
are inevitable. One is definite decline
in living standards as 1943 moves along
This decline will hit the middle class in
particular and 1t will be hitting very
hard by the end of l943. The second de-
velopment is to be wide expansion OF
rationing programs. Only by rationing
can the Government assure that declin-
ing supplies Of vital goods are divided
evenly among the people. Rationing,
however, tends to cut down on the sup
ply OF goods for the middle and upper
income classes and to increase the sup
ply for those who had been in the lower
income group.
The volume of money in the hands Of
factory workers is becoming stupendous.
During 1912. an important part Of the
increase In individual income has gone
to pay OF installment debt and to buy
essentials that still we're In stock on
store shelves During 1943. workers are
to have vast amount Of income that
will be seeking out goods in competition
with the middle class group whose In
come actually is being cut by rising taxes
and rising living costs.
Competition for goods in 1943 is likely
to be rather concentrated in the field
of foodstuf1s
People in some sections of the country
already have discovered that bacon and
beef are short. That shortage in the
past has been due, in important part. to
the effect of price ceilings. During 1943
the shortage will grow and will be due
to rising military demands and to rising
demands from former low-income groups
whose consumption OF meat in past
years has not been so large. Food Ad-
ministrator Claude Wickard already is
warning that rations are going to be
under pounds of meat a week per
mated earlier.
In dairy products the shortages will
be even more severe. Butter almost
certainly will become scarce item that
will have to be rationed very strictly.
Fluid milk is due for rationing The
same may be true for cheese. OF dairy
products. butter is to be most severely
restricted.
Shortages OF canned goods are in
evitable. Orders now issued will result
in a cut of approximately so per cent
in the pack of many products sold in
cans. This includes fruits, vegetables,
soups and meats. An exception is made
in the case of most baby foods. The
supply of fresh fruits and vegetables is
likely to be restricted during 1943 as a
result of labor and transportation short
ages.
And so it goes Clothing should be
rather abundant during the new year
because so many men will be in service.
Shoes are heavily stocked Even so. there
will be a downward trend in the supply
of cotton and woolen goods
In the light of this situation there is
little choice except that of rationing.
The alternative to rationing is scramble
on the part of people with almost un-
limited supplies of money, all ready to
bid against one another for declining
supply of goods. 1t is on that sort of
base that wild imitation always rests.
The revolutionary forces that are touched
of by a wild imitation are so dangerous
that Government will be forced to avoid
them by control over distribution of
goods.
The American public obviously does
not like rationing Politicians blame the
near overturn of Congress in the last
election to voter resentment over what
the individual voter appears to have
felt was an unnecessary or bungled
Use of restrictions. That resentment
actually may trace to the failure of
responsible oficials to give simple and