Evening star., 1942-04-08
Discusses Ebb and Flow
Of Russian Campaign
Correspondent Soys Retreats
May Serve to Wear Down
Strength Of Advancing Enemy
By Stanley WdShburn.

~ Se~'"sS6 W %ofecN "s
The next six weeks on the Russian
front promise to be ones Of vital i'm
portance to the 1912 campaign and the
Allies should be prepared to discount in
advance disappointments in the initial
stages of these operations.
1t always must be remembered that war
L. the constant ebb and flow between
vicissitude and victory, and observers
must learn not to be unduly exalted by
success or downcast by reverses.
In considering this whole subject, sew
eral factors must be borne in mind.
First, the German morale is not broken,
nor in all probability will 1t be for two
years. Second, in all the history OF
Germany in modern wars, they are never
without plan and almost always it is
an intelligent and carefully thought out
one. Third. their efficiency in prepared
ness has not faltered up to this time, nor
is there any reason to believe that it will
for many months, If not years, ahead.
Students of the First World War will
realize that German drive which has
taken months to organize and prepare
almost always has scored initial advan-
tages. 1t is only necessary to recall the
advance through Belgium and against
Paris in 1914 and the tremendous effort
made against Verdun in 1916. Even more
;,,iJ Jl,,x DC IND ~,
when the Germans struck at the British
Fifth Army In an attempt to capture
Amiens and Arras. The British had
thought their position impregnable, but
the German effort after a winter of pre-
paredness struck at the fifth army with
30 divisions and attacked in columns Of
divisions heavily supported by artillery
from field guns up to heavies. The writer
was in England at that time and there
it generally was thought for two weeks
that the Germans would reach their
objective but though they did come TO
within a few miles of both the French
towns, through which ran the lines of
communications between Calais and
Paris the effort ultimately failed and
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dangerous offensive that the Germans
made.
1t must be realized that after a few
weeks of a well-prepared drive the re-
suits almost always are diminishing re-
turns, and this is what we in America
must discount concerning Russia between
now and the middle of May. The best
which we can anticipate is that the
Russians may take Kharkov, wanna
and straighten out their line In anticipa-
ton of a really heavy blow. 1t is clear
that Hitler must make this effort in
April or else wait until June.
Napoleon started his invasion of Russia
in June. Hitler started his drive on
Russia in June. and in 1916 the Russians
did not launch an offensive against the
Germans which they had been pre-
pairing for three months until June S,
All these operations were started in June
on account of the condition of the ground
in the spring.
In the last war, 1914, 1915, 1916 and
part Of 1917. covered 10000 miles by
motor between Petrograd and the Dan
ube and can speak advisedly Of the ter
rible conditions of the road when the
frost comes out OF the ground. The past
winter Q94l-l942) has been unusually
severe on the Eastern front. The ground
has been frozen more deeply than usual.
From Beserabia and the Ukraine north
ward the plains are black loan, almost
identical with the soil in the Red River
Nan ~ yI,a Nr+l
North Dakota. the Valley of Sungari in
Manchuria and the Valley of the Danube
in Rumania. Melting snow and the re-
lease of frost from the ground turns the
fields and roads into sea of mud. My
own car, which weighed five tons when
loaded, frequently sank to the axles and
it often took from so to 100 soldiers to
pull it out of the sticky mire This is
what the Germans must face with their
heavy mechanical equipment and what
they cannot attain by early May will
have to be postponed until June when
the ground is hard enough to make heavy
equipment available. The Russians will
| face the same in the early stages of the
| campaign, but this should be Offset by
| their hordes of cavalry. The years was
with the Russians they had nearly 400 900
mounted troops. I think it is conserva-
| tive to estimate that they now have at
least 100000 Cossacks and other types
| Of cavalry. These little horses can wade
| In mud and like it. and once a German
| attack is slowed down masses of horse
men should play havoc with their lines
| of communications.
Wars and battles are not won by pins
moved back and forth on the map, but
ultimately by man power and materiel,
and both are of little value without
morale. BY this time the world must be
fully conscious of the character, tenacity
and courage of the Russian troops and
of the peasant population, and so we
surely must assume that the morale Is as
good and probably better than their
morale during the campaign of 1s4l.
1t is probably equally true that their
own industries and munitions plants are
turning out from so to 100 per cent
more materiel than they were year ago
and to this must be added the tanks,
| planes and munitions pouring into Rus
sia from England, America and Canada.