The Hardin tribune-herald. [volume] (Hardin, Mont.) 1925-1973, 1942-12-31
ROGER BABS0N
1913 FORECAST
Noted Business AnYulist
Predicts Matters
For Coming Year

Predicts Matters
For Coming Yeur
" = =
THUMBNAIL OUTLOOK
FOR 1913
l. Total Business: Defense
production will be up
sharp (plus 59%); nom
defense down sharply (mi-
mus 33%), accompanied
by a drastic STANDARDIZED
ton of products.
2. Employment: The above
also applies to employ
ment, if we do not include
the armed forces.
3. Farm Income: Will be up
SCI in 1943 over 1912.
4. Dividends and Business
Earnings: Have passed the
peaks and will be lower
in 1943 than in 1912.
S. Labor: There will be
no strikes until the end of
the war and wages will
gradually become stabil-
ICED.
Commodity Prices: Will
strengthen somewhat, es-
pecially the prices of
manufactured goods. The
commodity price indexes
will indicate far less than
the actual advance.
7. Taxes: Will be felt Sc
verely, especially by the
white collar group who
can expect no pay in
creaSeS.
8. Retail Trade: Will be
12tc off in physical volume
in 1943 compared with
9. High-grade Bonds: Will.
decline, but good Stocks
should sell higher.
10. Creeping Initiation: Will
continue throughout 1943.
= y = = y
Babson Park, Mass, Dec. 81
are moving at breath
taking speed. Never before haI
he world been in the midst O
;uch far-reaching turmoil. With
n the next hour news nigh
Freak that will change tn
course of history. Never
;heless, it is vitaly important t.
Keep your perspective. TIC chang
,our business or investment pro
gram with every piece of wa
news is utmost folly. A good ex
of this was portrayed
the United States opene'
lp a second front in North AT
lea. That morning many thou
of self-appointed com
nentators were convinced tina
he war was going to last a
east five years. Yet by mid
of that same day thes'
anne commentators could SCI
but a short war and
victory. Let us now, there
:ore, confine this outlook tt
probabilities.
Trade
The first quarter of 1943 shoult
equal the first quarter of 1912
considering the entire year, (
decline of 1870 IS probable. Jus
what will happen depends OF
things: first, upon the guam
lily of goods; and second, tt
what extent consumers are will
ng to take substitutes. Wash
ngton talks about 100000 re-
being put out of bust
1ess; but I believe this is en-
unnecessary. If landlord
be easy on rents, as sen
;ible ones should be, practical
y all retailers can run on {
force and keep aliv'
Until the war is over whel
business again should be good.
The hope of America lies no
With big concerns, but witt
businessmen. These small
businessmen must be protected
order to preserve democracy
go further and say that tn
preservation of democracy de-
on small and ~so-called in
efficient manufacturers and re-
to clutter up the eco
ionic situation. Large units Leaf
to tyranny. AS Thu
S becoming recognized, I thinl
L943 will see some real hell
the small retailers. o
course, no general forecast will
to all parts of the coun'
;ry. The industrial and agri'
cultural sections should hold VI
% 1912 figures; in 1943, tn
American people will have lief
,ut of their income $36 billion
more than they had after pay
ng their taxes in 1910. Cit.
'estaurants and amusement
will prosper most; while filling
garages, lumber yards
household appliances and hard
ware stores will suffer most.
Commodity Prices and
Costs
Prices of practically all com
are at their low will
he exception of certain one
hat are now imported from In