Evening star., 1942-09-08
Near East Balance

1Ilousll nearly A,uUU miles apart,
the crucial battles now being waged
in Southern Russia and on the west
ern border of Egypt are integral
parts of a single strategic pattern
In grandiose plan of campaign, the
German high command has thrust
out two enormous claws in a gigantic
pincer movement one through
South Russia and the Caucasus, the
other across North Africa to Suez
and beyond. The ultimate objective
is to seize the Near and Middle East
between those constructing pincers
and crush United Nations opposition
like a ripe nut.
However, success in both ventures
is necessary for the larger goal to be
attained. Even victory In one field
would yield only local gains if offset
by stalemate or defeat in the other.
And as yet, the Axis has gained
clear decision in neither field, though
Axis prospects look better in South
Russia than they do on the ap-
proacheS to the Nile.
The tremendous dingdong battle
before Stalingrad should not obscure
the dangerous situation in the eau
caSus. There, despite stubborn Rus
sian opposition, the Axis goes steadily
forward. During the past week, the
western tip of the Caucasus has fall
len into German hands. This has
enabled the waiting Axis army of
the Crimea to cross the narrow Strait
OF Kerch and add its weight to the
forces already battering their way
along 400-mile front within hailing
distance of the Grozhny oil fields and
the Caspian Sea. Those Crimean
relnforcements perhaps account for
rapid Axis progress around the Black
Sea port of Novorossiisk, whose cap
ture Berlin has announced. Moscow
has not yet conceded its fall, but
admits retirements in the vicinity.
The loss of Novorossiisk would de-
prive the Russian Black Sea fleet of
its last regular naval base. Batum, 300
miles to the southeast, at the very
limit OF Russian territory near the
Turkish border, is a commercial port
with an Indifferent harbor. The
Black Sea fleet thus is threatened
with being orphaned" with no base
where it can dock, reft and receive
naval stores. 1t ultimately might be
compelled to seek refuge in Turkish
ports and be interned, unless the
Turks would allow passage of the
Straits, which would compromise
their precarious neutrality. Once
masters of the Black Sea, the Ger
mans could assail the isolated eau
casus by water as we'll as by land.
Fortunately, the darkening picture
Of the Volga and Caucasian fronts is
balanced by brighter prospects in
Egypt. Eight days ago, Marshal
! Rommel launched his long awaited
attack on the thirty-mile British de-
fense line which plugs the gap of
Mediterranean Sea and the salt bogs
Of the Qattara Depression. Unable
to execute his swinging ma
neuverS in that bottle -necked battle
ground, Rommel had to make frontal
attacks on well-equipped, heavily
entrenched foe. After a week of
sharp fighting, Rommel has lost all
his initial gains and is back on his
original line, having suffered con-
siderable losses in men and mechan-
lied equipment. Also, his air arm
has been completely outclassed by
big British and American bomber
and fighter squadrons which now
control the air above the battle
ground and ceaselessly blast Rom
mel's rearward concentrations and
supply lines.
The Desert Fox" has thus clearly
| lost his first round But the de-
| cisive combat for supremacy in North
Africa is yet to be fought. The main
armies have not come to grips, and
it is too soon to say that Rommel has
lost the strategic initiative. How
ever, the result of the first round
sets him back hard on his heels and
proves the toughness of the British
defense. For the moment, at least,
Egypt is safe.