Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1942-12-19
Grid Shows Winninu
Average Of Better
Than 80 Per Cent
Runs Little Over Third
On Track and Is Just
About $3.50 in Ring
BY JOHN LARDNER,


opcCAai corresponding OF Inc Star.
NEW YORK. Dec. le.-Eight or
10 years ago Jack Doyle, dean of
the Broadway mathematics depart
ment. who died in Florida recently,
told me he estimated that the IA
vorites win IS per cent Of the time
In horse racing. so per cent OF the
time In prize fights and anywhere
from 30 to 80 per cent of the time in
football.
This was an appraisal based on
something like 80 years of scrutiny
OF the three sports in question. The
old master struck an average from
the shifting conditions of those 80
years and undoubtedly form was
truer at certain times than at
others.
Today his figures still are approx
mately correct for racing and fights.
II there has been slight shift, and
I think there has been, it is down.
ward In racing and upward in the
ring.
Track form may be checked. 1
don't know offhand what the per-
centage of winning favorites was in
1912, but my guess would be that
less than IS per cent of the favorites
won their races at all tracks during
the year. Less, but not much less.
The average still hovers around one
third. In some recent years, it may
have gone to 80 per cent or lower.
Racing Estimate Still Good.
Remember, though, that Doyle's
calculation was based on bookmak-
ing favorites, while today pari-
mutuels make the odds-in other
words. the 81 bettor, at the track, is
wholly responsible for the designa-
ton Of the favorite In 8 races out
Of 10 he will agree with form as con-
ceived by professional handicappers.
In the other two, he may waver
sufnciently to set the stage for what
the handicappers call a false IA
vortte"-false in their professional
Judgment, that Is; there have been
times when the public was right and
the consensus wrong.
No one who studies race charts
can fail to notice that second
choices" win a great deal these days
md favorites run second. Dis
counting the element Of dishonesty
among trainers and jockeys. which
affects the general percentage
scarcely at all. the chances are that
many Of those second choices would
have been favorites in Doyle's hey
Gay. The book1naker was Influenced
by the public, but seldom to the ex-
tent of reversing his judgment.
So, on Doyle's own terms, would
say his estimate for racing holds
Good today.
Change in Fight Game.
His figure of so per cent for win
ring favorites in prize fights was
tased on main bouts, important
main bouts, involving champions or
we'll known contenders. I think 1t
Is safe today to say that main-bout
favorites win more often than they
lose, but here again there has been
a change of circumstances since the
golden age of Doyle's soothsaying.
Champions fought less often 20
and 30 years ago than now. This
was true in all brackets, from heavy
weight down. Age and inaction told
against them when they finally went
to work. Titleholders or uncrowned
champions nowadays are in action
continuously-speaking in peace
time terms-and their quality is
bound to tell on the percentage fig-
ures when applied in steady doses.
Ray Robinson and Willie Pep,
never beaten as professionals, tilt
the scales strongly. Joe Louis has
been beaten only once, in some So
fights. since turning professional.
These three men, and few others
like them. always are betting IA
vorites.
On the other hand, there are
enough Fritzie Zivics, Lou Novas,
Lee Savolds and Lew Jenkinses, los
Ing a. often as they win after first
gaining fame, to keep the fight
game well within the business range
Of the short-end bettor.
College Football Form Gone.
A for college football, now COM
paratively the biggest betting sport
In the country, it is shot from the
point OF view of the form student. |
Doyle's estimate of 80 to 80 per cent |
was rational 10 years ago. In 1912,
not more than 81 per cent of the |
favorites won In major college |
games.
The whole structure Of betting |
form In sports should be overhauled |
and brought up to date, and what
this country needs today, along with
victory and a good nickel cigar, is
a new Jack Doyle to approach the
Job with wisdom and devotion.