Evening star., 1942-11-21
Russian Offensive?

NuSSIOu 0IISnSlvG!
The sharp resurgence of fighting
on the entire eastern front, with the
Russians everywhere taking the in
ltlatlve all the way from the Arctic to
the Caucasus, raises the highly in
teresting question whether this NAV
be general Russian counteroffensive
similar to that launched at the be-
ginning of the winter season last
year. The term offensive" is here
used in its technical military sense.
meaning a major operation co-ordi-
mated over an entire front, as dis
tinguished from tactical offensive
moves OF limited scope and signifi-
cance.
The Russians have long been fore
casting such an offensive when the
Axis advance had expended it's mo-
mentum and when the coming of win
ter gave the Russians certain natural
advantages. For months Moscow
dispatches have limited at large-scale
reserves being trained and equipped
for winter campaign. The huge
losses suffered by the Axis before
Stalingrad and their failure to take
that pivotal city on the Volga leaves
them in an unsatisfactory strategic
situation there, while their similar
failure to take Voronezh, the kew
point on the upper Don, exposes their
flank to attacks which might en-
danger their communications with
the entire Volga-Caucasus front.
The Axis picture becomes still more
dubious with the serious defeat they
have just suffered in the Central
Caucasus. Moscow announces an
important victory at Ordjonikidze,
strategic town which commands both
the principal pass over the noun
tains and the approach to the
Grozhny oil fields. Curiously enough,
this is the first notice the outer world
has had that Axis forces had pene-
trated thus deeply in this sector.
According to Moscow, the Axis has
suffered such heavy losses in men
and equipment that no further
threat to the Central Caucasus may
be anticipated for some time.
Appraisal of the military prospects
on the eastern front are extremely
difficult, because so little is known
as to the relative strength of both
sides. For months, rival armies to-
falling several millions of men have
been battling almost continuously in
what is perhaps the most sustainedly
ferOciOuS conflict of all times. The
upShot must be mutual weakening
of profound significance for future
operations. Despite extensive losses
of territory, resources and popula-
ton. Russia presumably still holds
the edge in manpower. But it is un-
likely that the badly crippled indus
trial system Of the Soviet Union is
able to match the output of Axis
dominated Europe, while the amount
Of munitions and supplies received
from its allies has almost certainly
failed to meet the deficit. II the
Axis could concentrate on the eastern
front as it did last year, the success
of Russian winter offensive would
be. dubious.
However, the amazing transforma-
ton in the overall picture wrought
by recent Anglo-American triumphs
in North Africa introduces a new
element in the situation on the east
ern front. The most immediate con-
sequence has been the undoubted
weakening of German air strength
there, due to the imperative necessity
of diverting much of the LuftWaffe
to the Mediterranean area. Despite
unverified reports, it is unlikely
that Axis ground troops have been
withdrawn directly from the eastern
front. But the German high COM
mand must be using troops from the
general strategic pool for service in
the Mediterranean and North Africa
that might otherwise have been
available for service in Russia. That
indirect drain undoubtedly will in
f1uence Axis strategy in Russia, COM
pelling more cautious policy and
the avoidance Of what, under differ
ent circumstances, would be justif1-
able risks. Conversely, this will permit
the Russians to be bolder and to take
bigger chances than they formerly
would have done. Such are the basic
trends. To forecast more would be
Improbable.