Evening star., 1942-11-08
Eleven Months of War
Foreshudow Dominance
By OUen L. Scott.

Ideas about the length OF this war, as
they had shaped in the minds Of ofh-
ciaI estimatofs, are being revised. The
revision is in the direction Of longer
rather than shorter struggle.
Until recently, the inside view was
that Germany would be defeated by the
enc of 1943 and that Japan would 60
down sometime in 1914 This view now
is being changed with 1914 set down as
the probable year for Germany's down.
fall. Japan is scheduled for defeat not
many months after Germany.
The change OF schedule is due to sew
eral factors. One is the relatively slow
marshaling of air strength IN England
for consistent attack upon Germany. An
other year is passing with Germany rel
atively unscathed by attack from the
West, either by air or by land. That
means delay of the date on which the
Germans are likely to call 1t quits. It is
much the same in the case OF Japan.
The Japanese are not being hit by air
at home, as 1t would be possible to hit
them from Chinese bases, and at sea
the Japanese Navy has scored against
American aircraft carriers in a way
that will delay offensive action from the
Pacific side.
Yet this war is not going badly for
our side. Both Germany and Japan
have been checked in their drives of
conquest. That always is the prelimi-
nary requirement to any period of rolling
back the conquerors. Furthermore, both
of those nations are being severely hurt
by means that suggest the way in
which they are to be defeated.
In the case of Japan, several points
now are clear. One is that Japan's air
force is no match, in planes or in pilots,
for the American Air Forces, either
those of the Army or those of the Navy.
The failure of this country to go in
heavily for aircraft carriers will delay
the time when this advantage will be
most clearly revealed, but it is vital
advantage. Another very important
point is that Japan is found to be very
badly pinched for merchant shipping.
American submarines, with no fanfare,
have been knocking off Japans mer-
chant ships at far higher rate than the
japanese anticipated. That fact will in
terfere with exploitation of Japan's new
empire. A third point is that the Japa-
nese Army is no match for Americans. In
combat, the losses inflicted upon Japa-
nese forces have been disproportionately
large.
In the case of Germany, several points
likewise are clear. One of these points is
that, in Russia, the Germans have lost
between 100000 and 4000, 900 men killec
and severely wounded, and that is very
heavy loss for any nation A secono
point is that Germany is to be tied up lr
Russia for third year. She got nothing
approaching a decision this year. An.
other point is that Germanys industry
| is highly vulnerable to air attack, once
| the base is laid for consistent operations
| against her industrial centers. Then
too, the German lines extending from
Finland to Egypt are fantastically lon,
and leave open the way for of1ensives b,
| the British and Americans from severa
| points.
Both the Germans and the Japanese
are open to attack at home. They can b.
hit in vital spots by air. On the othel
hand, there is next to no chance that tn.
vast and growing American war industry
can be damaged to any great extent b.
enemy action. In the end this is likely
| to be the decisive war factor.
Eleven months of war have revealed
many other things that are encouragln,
for our side. It has been discovered, fo
instance, that the American conception
Of an air offensive built around gian
bombers, capable OF defending themselve
in daytime against enemy fighters, is I
correct conception. American four
motored bombers have stood up agains
the best that Germany can bring to bea
against them. They have upset Japan,
whole plan for new sea offensive b.
blasting her bases. Neither Germany no
Japan is capable of catching up with thi
country in the bomber race.
Experience is showing, tco that Amer
lean pilots, even without the years o
experience of German, British and Japa
nese pilots, are match for the veteran
of other armies. The reservoir of highes
class pilot material in the United State
is nearly inexhaustible. It is limited il
most other nations.
Then, likewise, the record Of expert
ence shows that American equipment
from tanks to rifles. is at least equal t.
the best of any other nation.
All of this gives clear clue to the wa
the war will go. The only question is on
of the length of time required to brin
American power to bear and thereby t
end the war. This time factor is con
siderably longer than many officials ha
expected. 1t has taken somewhat longe
than expected to bring about conversion
of American industry to war production
The longer time was required because Q
the hesitation about upsetting man
peacetime pursuits. That hesitation
ending and the production record is be
coming impressive,
One other cause Of delay is the oh
vious decision to build an immens
American air force and large America
Army, rather than to send America
weapons abroad for use by other armie
and other air forces. 1t takes time
build an air force of 2,500,000 men an
an army of 100000 men and to trans
port those forces to scenes OF actor
Tho roc,,1t Y,rohohlv is Sonoe Drolon patiO