Evening star., 1942-10-04
OfficiuI Pessimists
Becoming Optimistic
BIZ ODen L. Scott.

be occurring. It Is occurring more as
result of the strength of the Russians
and the failures of the Germans than as
a result of anything that the British or
Americans are doing.
The fact is that Hitler had to have
some kind of decision in Russia this
year, either knockout or set of con-
quests that would enable him to 60 on
the defensive in the east so that he
could turn west in l943. 1t appears now
that he will not get that sort of de-
cision. The further fact is that Japan
had to break out in 1912, either to gain
access to German equipment or to build
an impregnable set of barriers against
the United States, if she expected to
stand chance in the end. It appears
that she will fail in both regards.
In the case of Germany, 1t almost
certainly is to be necessary to plan for
another Russian campaign in 1943. That
means a division Of strength at time
when Great Britain and the United
States can bring their weight to bear in
the west.
In the case of Japan, 1t is going to be
necessary to keep limited air and naval
strength divided over vast area in the
Pacific, while the United States, with
incomparably greater productive capac-
ity, is getting set to take the offensive
in any one of number of directions.
All of this suggests that the initiative
in the war finally is to begin to turn.
However, it does not mean that the
war Is approaching an end. The fighting
for Great Britain and the United States,
as a matter of fact, has barely begun.
1t almost all lies in the future and still
can be long and very costly. Nonethe-
less, there is an optimism among in
formed officials here that is not re-
flected in official statements. Those
statements right now are almost all pes
simistic, on the ground that it is neces-
sary to frighten the American people
into making a real war effort.
Actually, the underlying situation is
encouraging enough to cause former
official pessimists to become moderate
optimists. The following are the rea-
sons:
The Germans are slipping behind in
the race for air dominance. Experience
is demonstrating that German planes,
German pilots and German air indus
tries are not what they we're cracked up
to be. The German air strength is at,
or has passed, its peak. On the other
hand, the strength of the American air.
plane industry and of the American Air
Force is just beginning to become i'm
pressive and is in a period of rapid
growth.
That removes one claim to German
invulnerability. At the same time it is
becoming apparent that the German
effort to win the war with submarine
attacks is doomed to failure Defensive
weapons gradually are forging ahead in
this race and the shipbuilding yards OF
the United States are beginning now to
turn out much larger tonnage of ships
than that being sunk by the Germans
When to these facts is added the further
fact that Hitler is not succeeding to the
extent expected in exploiting the con-
quered areas of Europe it can be seen
that he is heading for trouble
Japan soon is going to be in even
deeper water. The. one hope Of Japan
for success in this war had been for
quick conquest and then for time to
build up defensive outposts strong enough
to repel an offensive by the United
States. She had to bank on German
success and upon a development of war
WEAKNESS in this country that would
discourage any full-scale effort to
smash the japanese.
Regardless of official efforts to create
a contrary opinion, the Japanese funda-
mentally are not strong.
Japan lacks three things that would
enable her to become impregnable with
in her new empire. First of all she lacks
a merchant marine large enough to
carry out the problem of supplying her
forces and of transporting conquered
material to the factories in Japan on a
vast scale. Next she lacks a steel indus
try large enough to provide her with the
quantity of steel that is needed to f1pht
a war against the United States with
any hope of success. Finally, she lacks
a machine-tool industry large enough
and capable enough to keep up in the
race for better and better weapons of
war.
American submarines alone, in nine
months OF war, accounted for about
100000 tons OF Japanese shipping That
Is a years production of Japans ship
yards Yet the submarine attack bv
this country is barely begun. When it
does begin in earnest, Japan will lack
the aid OF any partner comparable to
the aid the United States has given
Britain in her effort to overcome German
submarines.
Similarly, Japan is unable quickly to
add any great capacity to her steel and
hnachlne TOOL industries. In the first
place, II she is to expand her steel Ca
paclty from its present 100000 tons she
Will have to divert steel from weapons
to plant itself. Then, if she is to exnand
her machine tool industry greatly she
WILL have to make another diversion. On
top OF that the Japanese lack the en-
glneerlng skills and the trained men to
carry out expansion on a vast scale.
americans supplied much of that skill
IN the past. When to these things is
ADDED the further prospect that Japan's
industry is vulnerable to air attack the
nature OF her problem becomes clear.
1t probably is true, as American off,
Gals explain. that the Japanese are
reany to fight desperately to hold what
they have conquered. Even so, once
Germany is taken care of, the naval
and air forces that can be diverted to
the Pacific will be so overwhelming in