Evening star., 1942-04-26
Glue 10 Power
Needs Expected
In Few Days
Seasonal Trend Moy
Help Settle Debate
Over Capacity
By FRANK MacMILLEN,
Wide World Business Writer.


tant clue to the ability OF the elec-
tric power industry TO supply the
growing war needs Of the country
should come to light shortly. pos
sibly by mid-week, experts said to-
day.
For in the week Just ended. or
sometime in the succeeding fort
night or so. the countrys output Of
energy should begin the long climb
which with minor Interruptions
carries it to the usual seasonal peak
in the week before Christmas.
But power figures so far this year
have been behaving far from nor
mally, and this has served to high
light a dispute between production
experts in the industry and the Fed
ersl Power Commission.
Leland Olds. chairman of the Fed
eral Power Commission, charged re-
Gently that estimates Of the in
dustry's ability to meet the war load
made by Charles w. Kellogg. presi-
dent of the Edison Electric Insti-
tute, if accepted as basis for PLAN
ming power supply would spell dis-
aster,"
Many Customers Lost.
Kellogg and other power men.
however, have leaned heavily, 1t 10
learned, on power production figures
for the last several months.
These have shown a distinct dovn@
trend since the first of this year,
where normally the movement Ia
nearly sidewise until II takes dip
Just before the turn comes In lets
April =
A usually well-informed trade
source revealed today that there
had been a net loss of some $4,000
commercial and industrial customers
by the country's power companies In
the first quarter Of this year and
said the trend had been accelerat-
ing more recently.
This economist believed the fact
that power use had been slipping
since the first Of the year, despite
growing war manufacture, indicated
these lost customers to a large exc
tent were casualties among small
plants and businesses without the
machinery, the labor or the manage
went skills to get into war work.
He also said many small retail
and service buSinesses-corner candy
stores, service stations, auto dealers
little tailor and dry-cleaning estab-
lishments, etc.-had closed because
Of loss of personnel or shortages.
Use Two Sets Of Figures.
The power men use these two
sets Of figures to make their point; /
1. This year, with production of
war materials growing by leaps and
bounds, the power output OF the
country In the second week In April
was 4.76 per cent less than IN the
first full week of January. Last year.
after a considerable sidewise move
ment, the drop on balance In the
comparable period was 35 per cent.
| but at that time war production was
much less than at present. a
Q. Now the potential output OF
power lend of March Is AS million
kilowatts. or So per cent more than
at the same date last year.
The power men believe these fig-
ures indicate the industry Is keeping
more than abreast Of demand.
But they, no less than Govern
ment power officials, will be watch
ing closely for the turn In produc-
ton into the fall climb. II IL is too
late In appearing and less rapid
than Is to be expected, they will con-
slider their calculations justified on
the extent TO which shutdowns are
offsetting additional war nnanufac-
ture.
Actually. the dispute between the
industry and the power commission
has arisen over attempts by both
sides to envisage how much energy
will be required for the victory pro-
duction program.
Since much of the program still
can be defined only in the inexact
terms Of unexpended dollar bal
ances, the room for disagreement
is wide.
Olds Scored Estimate.
Olds recently attacked an over
all estimate by Kellogg that power
needs can be met on the basis of o.e
OF a Elowatt hour Of energy for
each dollar Of war expenditure.
He pointed to such big power-con-
suming uses as aluminium, which he
estimated at 66 XVIII. per dollar:
magnesium, So XVIII per dollar, and
II XVIII. per dollar for certain elec-
trio furnace steel castings.
The merits of this controversy.
most business observers here agreed.
was something that must be left to
the technical experts, in hope they
could reach the necessary conciu-
sions.
But, one prominent business
statistician pointed out. calculating
power needs, raw material needs. Ia
Dor requirements, or any other of
the complicated components of pro-
duction, on the basis of the total war
expenditure, was an enormously
complicated business.
"The sooner they get down TO en-
gineer1ng facts and away from dol
lars, the sooner they'll get together
on what needs to be done" he said.