Evening star., 1942-07-10
Economists Survey
Postwar Outlook
For u. ). Factories
Chase ond Cumberland
Aqree at Institute on
Expansion Of Output
BY THOMAS r. HENRY,
Star STAFF Correspondent.

BY THOMAS r. HENRY,
Star STAFF Correspondent.
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. July
0.-Economists taking part in the
program of the University of Vir-
ginias Institute of Public Affairs
here were looking over cloud-capped
hills into after-war America when
about 100000 workers are due to
return to peace production in new
factories with vastly more efficient
machines and far more satisfactory
materials
What they saw through the clouds
may be Utopia or Hades, depending
on economic policies over which
there is bound to be bitter disagree
ment.
One solution, it seems, is some
thing like super-super New Deal
with the traditional trends of Amer
ican industrial organization turned
upside-down and major emphasis
placed on consumption. This was
the standpoint of Stuart Chase.
noted economist and Government
consultant. 1t would require good
deal of Government manipulation.
Cumberland Sees Free Enterprise.
On the other hand, an era of rela-
lively free enterprise was forecast by
William w. Cumberland, New York
banker and economic expert of the
American Association of Manufac-
turers and of several Government
missions. Consumption, he believes,
will take care OF itself. Mr.. Chase
and Mr.. Cumberland addressed the
institute yesterday.
Both admitted there will be great
expansion of the potentialities for
production.
For example, Mr.. Chase pointed
out, there may be as much as so
per cent increase in available elec-
trical energy. There will be a new
crop pattern for agriculture, brought
into being by the present lease-lend
setup, which will produce food OF
high nutritive value in unbelievable
quantities.
But, he stressed, suppose one as
sumes that the labor market and
consumption demands are about
what they were in 1910 when be-
tween 100000 and 100000 we're
unable to get work although they
wanted it. Presumably about the
same number must be provided work
after the war, as they drift back
from war industries.
Mr.. Chase has been making some
studies in cooperation with the
Twentieth Century Fund in New
York as to a possible labor budget.
Food Basic Requirement.
The basic requirement will still
be found. For the production no
additional man power will be
needed.
In the matter Of housing. taking
1910 as basis. there will be a big
opportunity of absorption. The ex-
pert consensus Is, he said, that
America needs at least Is ,000, 600 new
dwelling units over the next decade.
This means roughly force of O.
100000 engaged in building 1,500. 900
houses or apartments year" The
job, he believes, can absorb at least
million of the returning workers.
Also in 1910, he stresses, the coun-
try was inadequately clothed. 1t
would require, at the outside. mil
lion men and women extra to pro-
vide clothing for everybody on
comfort basis"-such as pair of
shoes year for everybody.
Adequately to guard the health OF
the Nation, the Twentieth Century
Fund survey shows, will require
about 100000 more doctors, dentists,
nurses, hospital attendants and
other health workers. 1t also esti-
mated that there is room for about
a half million more school teachers.
Labor Surplus Problem.
But assuming all these needs are
met, whether by private industry or
by Government enterprises, less
than half of the labor surplus will
be taken care Of. Conditions in 1910
may not have been a fair base line
because production after the war
will be SO much more efficient, he
stressed.
The way out, he said, is to raise
the national standards of living,
step up the mass production of lux
uries and build permanent public
works on grand scale. In addi-
ton, there will be possibly titanic
job of helping rebuild a wrecked
world.
But 1t requires, he said, shift from
production to consumption as a ma
tional goal. Another way out, he
intimated, would be to make war
preparation constant with the Ger
tainty that 1t would lead to new
wars
1t is curious, he stressed. that ex-
cept in wartime the first aim of in
dustry never has been to produce
what a community needs but to
make money for producers-and the
two purposes need not be Identical.
They drift far apart in times of de-
preston and governments must step
in to save their citizens.
1t is plain now, Mr.. Chase be-