Evening star., 1941-12-21
Tmor and Martinique Moves May Spur Nozi
Interest in Mediterranean and West Africa
BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.

BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING .
ELIOT.
The strong German reactions to
the Dutch-Australian occupation of
Portuguese Timor and to the re-
ported naval agreement between
the United States and the French
high commissioner in the Caribbean
on the status of Martinique suggest
an increasing German interest in
the Mediterranean and West Afri-
can areas, and a desire to make
use of any diplomatic excuse for
the purpose of bringing additional
pressure to bear on Vichy and Lis
bon, and of course, on Madrid.
A great German offensive in the
Mediterranean might also afford
cover for the increasingly evident
German defeat in Russia; ss well
as providing naval diversion
which would enable the Germans
to demonstrate that they were help
ing the japanese. who are going to
be badly in need of help before
very long unless they succeed in
capturing Singapore and Manila
the prospects of which must be in
creasingly doubtful at Toxic AS the
situation unfolds.
There are certain difficulties to
be overcome A major air attack
on the British fleet and bases,
coupled with air reinforcement of
Gen. Rommel in Libya might be
one phase of these operations; but
Gen. Rommel has only limited
capacity for servicing and supply
ing additional aircraft, he has lost
much of his stores and many OF his
best air bases, and the arrival OF
reinforcements is under constant
British air and sea attack.
Crete Bases Capacity Limited.
Probably more could be done by
long range bombers operating from
Crete and Sicily; but as to Crete,
the capacity of the bases there is
limited, and the British can use
carried borne aircraft in a counter
attack. while the Axis has no car
riers. Nevertheless. if enough bomb
ers can be made available the Ger
mans might be able to do great
deal of damage: and they might be
able in particular to make Malta
temporarily untenable by attacking
it from Sicilian bases.
One object Of such German air
action might be to cover the move
ment of reinforcements and sup
plies across the Mediterranean to
Gen. Rommel's army; the Axis Is
making desperate efforts to do this
now and suffering heavy losses, and
the high command must have come
by this time to the conclusion that
| it is little better than mass murder
to send laden troop transports to
sea under Italian naval escort.
German air escort seems the only
remaining available means. Much,
however, will depend on the speed
with which Gen Ritch&e's forces in
Libya can mop up the remnants OF
| German resistance there. II Gen.
Rommel is now so badly beaten that
| he cannot make a stand and is
cut of from further retreat by the
outflanking British columns to the
southwark, there may be no place
left in Cyrenaica for Axis reinforce
ments to land.
In that case a race for Tripon
might ensue, with Axis forces COM
ing possibly through Tunisia. with
the British moving from the east
under great supply dif1iculties. and
with perhaps Free French desert col
umns racing up from the south.
In the Western Mediterranean,
strategy hinges to a great extent on
the fact that the only naval base
now available to the British is
Gibraltar. which is of limited ca
pacity and which. though capable
Of protracted defense against land
attack. can be neutralized as naval
base by artillery and air lombard
men of the dock yard
Spanish Attitude Important.
There is no depth to the British
position here, and almost nothing
| in the way OF an air base. The
air defense of Gibraltar can be
assured only by positions on the
African shore, and these are all held
by Spain. A great deal probably
depends on the attitude assumed not
only by the Spanish government. but