Evening star., 1941-11-02
Auto Production
Sale,
Temporarily
Most Trade Experts
Believe Shortage
IsCertuin Later
BY DAVID J. WILKIE.
The Stars Snecial News Service

DElRO1l, NOV. line NdllOll
motor car industry, despite Govern
ment -ordered curtailment, currently
is producing more passenger auto
mobiles than its immediate retail
market requires-but, according to
general thinking throughout the
trade, the condition distinctly is a
temporary one
An eventual shortage of new We
hicles now is the most certain thing
ahead of the industry, in the view
of most trade experts.
Under the maximum production
quotas authorized by the Office of
Production Management, a total
output of 1,228,O65 passenger cars
may be assembled in the first six
months of the model year that
started August |. There are few
among the car makers. however, who
believe that volume will be reached
Materials Hard to Find.
Difficulties in obtaining certain
materials, already felt by various
companies, are expected to become
more acute as pressure in defense
production increases. There are
some among the trade experts who
believe a complete cessation of pas
senger-car production may have to
be ordered several weeks in advance
of the end of the neW-model year
next July 81.
When this thought first was sug-
gested several weeks ago it was not
given very serious attention. Trade
sources now point out that the cur
tailment ordered for the first six
months OF the model year represents
only a 1868 per cent reduction under
last years output volume. With a
so per cent slash as the announced
objective of the defense agencies
for the full model year, production
authorizations beyond next January
will have TO be narrowed more
sharply
Both the car producers and rep
resentatives of the union factory
workers are trying to maintain en-
plOyment at levels as high as pos
Sible until transition to defense work
on a large scale can be undertaken
Thus 1t is possible. as authoritative
sources in the industry view the situ-
alton. that production quotas for
February and March may be cut
only moderately. with major re-
strictions ordered for the final -four
months of the model season.
Such a program would mean a
virtual stop of passenger car as
semblies after March 81, or spread
out the volume so thin that pro-
duction costs would be almost pro-
hibitive.
Fear for Sales Stats.
The car manufacturers, seriously
concerned about the present slow
retail movement of new vehicles
find little comfort in the assurance
of ply-eXhausting demand later
in the model year. Important tC
the post-defense era for the auto
mobile industry. as they visualize
it, is the maintenance of the pres
ent merchandising organization.
Generally. the industry leaders
anticipate some dealer mortality
during the defense period. but they
are endeavoring to minimize this
as much as possible. The dealer
organization, they know, cannot be
maintained solely upon sales an
ticipated six months from now
Thus they are doing their utmoS,
to promote sales campaigns at thi:
time and also to discourage any
tendency to withhold new vehicle!
from the immediate market.
Trade sources here have hearo
reports of some storing of new car.
by dealers against what they eX.
pect will be better selling condi.
tions later in the model year.
AS general proposition, however
the car manufacturers do not an.
ticipate a sudden bulge in retail
demand. Rather, they feel, it viii
grow gradually, with considerabl,
impetus expected to result from tn,
| impending announcement of tn,
elimination of all bright work trim
Weeks Output Larger.
Automotive News. the trade news.
paper, estimated today that 80 ,38s
units were produced this week by
the industry in the United State:
and Canada. This compares with
91,009 the previous week and 116, ,36(
this week year ago.
General Motors was estimated tt
have turned out 35 ass units thi.
week compared to 35382 the previ.
GUS week; Chrysler 21,050 compared
to 2O,983, and Ford 1880 compared
/ to 1891
Automotive News said that al
divisions In the independent grour
were operating at peak capacity with
the exception of WHY'S which, aftel
partial operation Monday, turned it.
output facilities over to Army re-
connaissance cars.