Evening star., 1941-11-09
Arms Transition
May Bring Lu|l
For Business
Trade Experts Chart
Coming Months With
Thut in Mind
By FRANK MacMILLEN.
Associated press Business writer.


Associated Press Business Writer.
NEW YORK, Nov. 8-Watch for
a "curtsy' in the line which marks
the course of the country's indus
trial production.
1t may not appear. Plans change
so fast in world emergency that
no one can be sure what to expect
but some shreWd business planners
here think it may be in the making
in the next few months and are
charting courses accordingly.
The dip, if these men are guessing
correctly, will be product OF the
changeover from a partial TO a full
war dominated economy.
1t will spring from shortage OF
manv kinds of goods for civilian use
and from a shift of the Nations
labor supply from primary concern
with normal production TO sltua-
ton in which half or more OF the
countrys productive effort may
eventually go to war purposes.
These observers believe it will be
short. though it might be rather
sharp while it lastS-a KIND OF
"dipsv-do" in the long line on the
chart which marks the climb OF
production since the start OF the
war.
April Lull Soon Ended.
The first sharp decline in total
production occurred in April OF this
YEAR. induced largely by the coal
strike, which also caused curtall-
ment in steel.
This ended quickly with the re-
sumption of work in the mines ana
| the climb was resumed.
But while the physical output OF
goods was unusually great in the
| summer. A normally slack period,
the chart line of production has
been nearly level for the past flve
| months.
Hidden behind overall production
! indices. however. have been changes
in the character of goods utrned out:
| Continuation and accentuation OF
/ trends ALREADY apparent may MAKE
/ good the predictions of dip soon,
| observers contend.
Here is the factual picture. as
| described by the Federal Reserve
| Board:
| During recent months activity
/ has confined to expand rapidly in
industries making products for de-
fense, such as aircraft, ships ana
armament.
Limited by Capacity.
"Tn some others. notably iron and
steel and non-ferrouS metals, there
has been little further advance
in this period. owing to limitations
on the amount Of available produc-
tive capacity.
! IN a few lines, mainly the auto
mobile, silk and rubber industries,
activity has been curtailed consid-
erablv in the past month or two,
rejecting direct Government limita-
tons on the output Of goods for
civilian use. as in the case of auto
mobile production, or limitation on
the use of certain materials, princi-
pally rubber, metals and silk"
Most business observers here seem
to feel 20 doubt that the relatively
small tislocations in supplies Of
civilian goods will grow with con-
tinuetion of the defense effort.
That Is one of the pegs on which
they hang their prediction Of some
kind Of a dir in total production
before the line 5traightens out under
the terrific stimulus of spending the
$50 100000 already appropriated
for defense. and the billions more
apparently certain still to be poured
out
Another is temporary loss Of Jobs
as men switch from making things
needed for peace to those required
for war and defense.
Unemployment Appears.
Some of this unemployment al
ready has appeared, though observ-
ers here feel it is not yet a major
problem. But they expect 1t to
grow before it decreases
This sort of job loss will vary from
locality to locality, it is pointed out,
and its amount is uncertain.
Some statisticians here have been
figuring temporary displacements at
100000 men, and this is conceded!y
a guess, which may be either high
or low. But any such number Of
men out of work for few months.
it is suggested, would almost surely
find reflection in the movement of
goods at retail.
A third reason for expecting that
the business and production pace
may slacken a little soon, experts
here say, is the amount of dur
able consumers goods
blles, washers, vacuum cleaners,
household appliances - which the
buying public has absorbed in re-
cent months because of fear of
shortages or higher prices.
They expect the demand for this
kind of goods to be subnormal for a
few months. This may make itself
felt in retail stores, create sales un-
employment and even factory un-
employment in the likely event that
manufacturers cannot Immediately
switch all facilities for civilian pro-
duction to defense manufacture.