Evening star., 1941-01-01
Slight Wage Rise
And Fewer Strikes
Now in Prospect
Defense Drive CoIors
Labor Outlook for
Coming Year
BY CambrldGe Associates.

Labor these days, no more than
any other part Of the business and
industrial picture, can be considered
except against the background Of
the national defense program. La
bor-part and parcel. if not the very
essence OF the defense effOrt-Will
benefit from the same influences
which will benefit industry as a
whole and will suffer similar re-
strictions upon its profits and GUS
tomary freedom of action.
Looking into 1941, it is possible to
see some very real gains for labor
in the way of higher hourly wages
in many industries and higher
weekly wages, the latter to most in
dividual workers of more Importance.
An excessive number of strikes is
not likely in l94l, but not because
of any Federal action barring
strikes or instituting compulsory
arbitration. Recent years, however
have matured bargaining methods
in many industries and the Govern
ment possesses power Of focusing
public opinion upon the offender III
any dispute which may obStruCt the
defense program.
Small Rise Expected.
Average wage rates are not deS-
tined to increase greatly in l941.
Certain SkillS will command pre-
miums, big premiums. For the semi
skilled and the laboring groups, the
pressure of competition from the
reserves of the idle will preclude
abrupt wage increases.
There is strong support in Con-
gress for legislation to halt strikes
in defense industries. The weight OF
the administration, and or organized
labor itself, or course, is against
such a move and unless there IS
more direct American participa-
ton in the war there is small
chance of such legislation even
reaching the floor.
The Labor Division OF the Ma
tional Defense Advisory Commls-
sion, under Sidney Hillman, has
been remarkably successful in pre-
venting industrial disputes from
reaching the strike stage. In only
two cases handled by the division
have actual stoppages of defense
production occurred and the dura-
ton of these stoppages, by past
standards, was brief.
Dual Unionism Remains.
After the election, when John l..
Lewis stepped down from the presl-
dency of the Congress of Industrial
ORGANIZATIONS to carry out his cam
paign promise, there was some eX-
pectation that the breach between
the C. l. o. and American Fedora
ton of Labor might be bridged.
That expectation is not commonly
held now. The same gulf divides
the leaderships Of the two national
organizations and the same ques-
tions of precedence and power hold
the bridgeheads. The best that can
be hoped for in 1941 is that an
amicable working arrangement can
be reached by the industrial and
trade organizations to avert the
iurisdictional disputes with which
the public at large has so little
patience.
Want Voice in Defense.
AS the defense effort intensifies
and the war atmosphere becomes
more pronounced, there will be
greater pressure by organized la
Dor for a definite and specific repre-
sentation in the directing councils.
The Labor Department post Of
Secretary Perkins remains target,
a target as much for the A. F. L.
now as it was for Mr.. Lewis and
the c. l. o. following the 1886
election. If labor were not divided
as it is now, the choice of an actual
labor representative might be made.
The question is, can competent
nominee be discovered that will be
acceptable to all labor factions?
Friction between the Government
and organized labor may come on
several other points during l94l,
The antitrust division under Thur
man Arnold is watching carefully
for bottlenecks in the labor supply
and the record suggests that "crack-
down" efforts will not be avoided if
it is evident that the squeeze is the
result of union policies The ad-
ministration as a whole will throw
its weight against too rapid wage
increases. Such wage boosts might
easily touch off an unwanted in
fationary spiral of price jumps and
play hob with the defense budget.