Evening star., 1941-09-07
Steel Shortage
Not as Serious
AsExpected
Non-Defense Plants
Likely to Suffer
Less Than Feared
By FRANK MacMILLEN,
..nnin tad prarr pn1cinnsS Mrlfar

that the country'S war-geared IN
dustry would consume this year
about 8O.0OO,000 tons of steel it
highlighted something heretofore
little recognized - the bottleneck
in steel consumption.
Of the bottleneck in steel pro-
duction, the ability of the steel mills
to produce sufficient material for
war and civilian needs. thousands
of words have been written, spoken,
argued.
But few have recognized, that for
the time being at least, the country
has reached a position where it is
currently producing at least as
much basic steel - ingots - as it is
capable of turning into finished prod
ucts, either for defense and the
ton, and this includes, too, the g.
100000 tons which the industry be-
lieves is all required for export to
countries which are resisting the
Axis powers.
These figures on probable con-
sumption this year differ consider
ably, both in the industry and in
Washington defense circles. from
calculations little earlier this year,
in that they show consumption for
l941 will be only about 95 per cent
of potential capacity of the mills
to produce, based on capacity of
about 84,000,000 tons at the begin
ming of this year.
Nears SS,OOO,0O0 Tons.
But actual annual capacity now,
considering new facilities which
have come into production this
spring and summer, is closer to 88.-
100000 tons and several more mil
lions of tons Of capacity are under
way
While the institute revealed only
briefly the methods by which it
arrived at its conclusion that the
country would consume 10000 600
tons of ingotS, it was learned in
steel circles that actual analysis
was made of orders on the books of
leading producers and this appears
to lend weight to the calculations.
Steel men are quick to point out,
however, that while there appears
to be ample basic steel capacity, this
by no means indicates that steel for
all civilian purposes will be freely
available, now or in coming months.
This is because steel, either for
armaments or for peacetime use,
is used not as raw ingots but in such
forms as bars, plates, shapes, sheets,
rails, castings, stampings, special
alloys and the like.
Burden Is Uneven.
Defense needs bear unevenly on
this finishing capacity, it is pointed
out.
The automobile is an example,
good part of its body-shell is steel
plate and light stampings, a form
of steel of which the defense pro-
gram has required, relatively, but e
small amount.
But it also has heavier members.
1t requires bars, shapes, special cast
ings, special alloys, which are in de-
mand for things that for the mo-
ment are more needed
Some steel men think that the
consumption bottleneck" for steel,
even though it may disappear pro-
greSSiVely into next year as more
armament plants come into produc-
tion and consume output of the
steel mills, means somewhat more
steel for non-defense uses will be
available in coming months than
has been generally predicted.
While the exact amount of steel
orders bearing priorities, that is, hav-
ing first call for deliveries because
needed for defense. public health.
essential industrial repairs and con-
struction and the like, is defense
secret. many production men in
position to make a shrewd guess set
such business as only about half of
orders being currently received.
Exports Are Smaller.
This contrasts sharply with eSti-
mates of as high as 80 per cent
which have been used in some
Washington quarters in figuring how
far civilian rationing of steel must
go. steel men reported.
Interesting was the institutes
calculation that exports (mostly to
Great Britain this year would be
only 8,500,000 tons, some 80 per
cent less than in 1889 when the
figure topped 100000 tons. Ex-
ports drop to fourth place as a
steel outlet, from first place in
1910.
Whether this figure might tend
to increase very much later, espe-
cially with Russia added to the anti
Hitler forces. was point of doubt
to most steel men.
However, it was generally believed
here the slackening of shipments
to Britain had been largely a ques-
ton of cargo space, and many in
the industry thought the same
factor might operate to hold down
steel movement to the Soviet Re-
public.