Evening star., 1941-06-07
Spotlight on Syrio

Syria seems to be the local point
In the Near Eastern situation, and all
reports indicate increasing German
penetra ton. at least to the extent
of airplanes and tourists even if
General Dentz'S denialS are to be
taken at their face value in the sense
that uniformed German troops have
not yet arrived.
Syria's strategic value is self
evident as a base from which Ger
many could launch attacks on. the
nearby British island of Cyprus, to-
wards adjacent Palestine, or into
1rak, where resistance against Brit
ain still shoulders. So obvious are
these dangers that British attempt
to occupy Syria by force of arms has
been momentarily expected, and it
is known that large British troop
concentrations stand ready in PaleS-
tine and Trans-Jordan, while a Brit
iSh fleet is repeatedly cruising off the
Syrian coast, blocking any entry by
sea.
Yet the expected blow has not
fallen, and the vociferous press cam
paign in London for armed interven-
ton has suddenly died away. This
seems rather strange, at time when
the British government was virtually
charging that Vichy had lined up
with the Axis, and when our own
Secretary of State was giving out
statement concerning Vichy's pro-
German policies in much the same
vein.
This unexpected moderation should
mean one of two things Either
diplomatic or military considerations
are causing Britain to hold its hand
in Syria. If the cause lies in the
field of diplomacy, the reason is so
well hidden that speculation seems
prof1tless at this moment. A stra-
tegic analysis of the Near Eastern
situation, however, yields better re-
suits.
In the Near East, Britain is today
In a tight spot. The loss of Crete
was a heavy blow. From this focal
point, the Germans can launch air
attacks in several directions, thus
giving them the strategic initiative.
Though the exact size of Brltaln'S
armies in the Near East is military
secret, they probably do not aggre-
gate more than 100000 That is
slender force to cover several fronts.
The reinforced German and Italian
armies in North Africa alone are
supposed to be nearly as great.
Those forces are now menacing
Egypt from Libya, and successful
drive against Alexandria, the vital
naval base, in conjunction with mass
German air attacks from Crete,
would be fatal to Britain's position
in the entire Eastern Mediterranean.
Under these circumstances, it may
we'll be that General Wavell does not
feel strong enough to risk an attack
on Syria today, especially if he has
learned that the French forces there
would put up a stiff fight. The Brit
ish are reported to have established
defensive lines in Northern Palestine
and Trans-Jordan. while their hold
over Iraq grows stronger every day.
With reinforcements coming up the
Red Sea from East Africa and India,
plus American and British materiel
by the same route, Wavell may feel
that at least short delay will turn
the balance more in his favor.
Britains attitude toward Syria may
also be influenced by larger conSid-
erations. The crushing of Frances
Syrian army after bloody fighting
might throw the French everywhere
definitely on Germany's side, where
as now there are indications that, in
North Africa and elsewhere, strong
opposition to such action still exists.
Such considerations indicate the
compleXity and oelicacy of a situation
in which diplomacy and strategy are
strangely interviewer. We cannot
detect all the tangled strands. But
We know that they are there.