Evening star., 1941-02-18


East. The military group in Toxic,
impressed with the possibility that
Britain might be defeated has edged
up close to the Nazis, believing that
with the collapse of British sea
power, the Japanese Navy would
have things its own way in the
Dutch East Indies and in the Pa
cif1c generally.
So strong has the impression been
In Toxic that Britain would be de-
feated that the alliance with Italy
and Nazi Germany was conSum-
mated. The idea that Britain
might be aided by the United States
was not taken seriously. The Nazi
conception of the outcome of the
war was swallowed hook, line and
sinker.
Today Japan stands on the brink
of the precipice. She cannot get aid
from Germany on the seas and her
islands can only survive if her navy
survives. Once japanese sea power
is broken, the hordes from China
would make short shrift of japanese
commercial as well as military power
in the Far East.
U. S. Would Act.
Will Japan risk a naval war? Few
people in Washington believe the
Japanese would be so unWise, but if
Toxic believes there is no risk in
moving into the Dutch East Indies
or in invading British interests at
Singapore, the Nipponese are in for
the biggest surprise of history.
The risk for the japanese is a
simple one to outline. The United
States is not going to stand by and
see Japan take possession of the
Dutch East Indies and dominate
the future of the Philippines. The
japanese are likely to find them
selves blockaded by a British and
American naval force if the status
quo in the Far East is impaired. 1t
will be recalled that the Secretary
of State of the United States gave
ample warning a few months ago |
that the status quo in the Far East |
must not be disturbed. That warn
ing still stands and this is one case
where a diplomatic representation
will be backed up by naval action,
II necessary, the moment the initia-
tive is taken to violate what America
feels is clear obligation.
1t will be recalled, also, that the
United States entered into an agree
ment with Japan which virtually
guaranteed the status quo in the
Far East when the nine-power pact
was signed The American Navy |
has had to take up its position in |
the Pacific for several years because
of the tendency of the japanese
military party in Toxic to follow
in the footsteps of the Nazis in
breaking treaties.
British Aid in Either Case.
One thing that has not been left |
unsaid by the American Govern
ment is that no matter what hap
pens in the Pacific, aid will con-
tine to be furnished to Britain. |
The assumption here is that the |
heavier units of the American battle |
fleet will not be needed in the
Atlantic and that these warShipS, !
combined with such British units !
as are available in Far Eastern
waters, will constitute force
ample to prevent the outbreak Of
war.
The attitude of some navalists !
here, on the other hand, is that this |
year would be an opportune time |
to have a showdown for all times |
in the Pacific. 1t is regrettable that |
such a spirit is developing, but it |
Is worth recording because it should |
be noted in Toxic that the game |
of bluff which finally forced Britain
into war in Europe may force
America into war in the Pacific.
Japanese interests are so closely
allied commercially with America
that detached observers have never
been able to understand why Toxic
made an alliance with the Nazis.
With American sea power rising and
with British sea power unlikely to
be beaten now that the lease-lend
bill is about to be passed by Con-
greSS, the time for a reversal OF
policy in Japan would seem to have
arrived. There is much more basis
today for an NEUTRALITY-SUSPICIOUS.
nese entente than for a Nazi-Italian-
japanese alliance. For in the lat
ter, neither of the first two allies
can help the third, whereas both
the United States and Great Britain
can furnish the commercial and
financial sineWS for the resuscitation
of the Japanese Empire once its war
of exhaustion with China has come
to an end.
Danger of War Great.
The time for plain speaking on
the part Of friends of Japan in
America is at hand. If the Japanese
will withdraw her fleets from the
Dutch areas and make her COM
mercial needs known, she can be