Evening star., 1941-06-15

the likelihood OF conflict bet,Oeen
the United States and Japan are dis
cuSSed in this article. 1Critten for the
North American Newspaper Alliance
bv the eminent Chinese author OF
"The Importance OF LtUinQ" and other
Utdely read books. He 1CaS educated
IN American universities and has been
long resident and teacher here.
I am quite convinced that there will
be no war between the United States and
Japan.
That is to say, if the American fleet
sails out to Japan to challenge the Jap
anese Navy, the latter will not accept
battle. But I am equally convinced that
if America IS occupied in the Atlantic,
Japan will be very willing to move into
the South Pacific. Japan is going to lie
low and watch the development of the
European war.
The japanese are desperate and opin-
ions are very much divided in Toxic be-
tween the hot-headed. young jingoistic
officers and the more mature statesmen
and businessmen. They cannot make up
their minds, but if they cannot make up
their minds they should not talk so
much.
Mr. MatSuoka Japanese Foreign Min
ister) talks too much. In the last year
I have watched Mr. Matsuoka climb on
a high horse one week and then climb
down from it the next week then climb
up again and challenge the entire West
ern World the following week and then
be forced to climb down again. I am
not at all impressed. If a man wants
to climb up on a high horse he should
remain there.
Mr. Matsuoka has not been able to
anese have not been able to defeat the
Chinese
All Is Not Quiet in China
People here have an impression that
all is quiet on the China front, whereas
battles are being fought over there every
day on six or seven battle fronts and
even where there appear to be no fronts.
The japanese like to announce their mil
itary gains and then are forced to an
nounce that they have withdrawn from
the newly captured towns, having ac-
complished their military objective
What happens in these frustrated jap
aneSe drives has followed uniform pat
tern since the fall of HankoW two and
q half years ago. When you stop to
study the extent of Japanese advances
since the fall of Hankow in October, 1888,
you will be amazed by one obvious fact
If Japan was able to report gains almost
every month. why is it that in the last
two and half years Japan has made a
total advance of not more than $50 miles,
and then only at two points?
If you compare the map Of Japanese
occupied towns today with the map u
the fall of Hankow, the relative gain is
so little that it would look as if Germany
in Europe, instead of swallowing up
Poland and Czecho-Slovakia part of
France and Yugoslavia, had only occu-
pied Luxembourg and possibly the
ancient kingdom of Naples in the south.
What Happened.
What happened In these frustrated
japanese drives was that the Chinese
allowed the enemy to put its head out far
enough, and then counter-a attacked.
Every time the enemy was driven back
to its original position with staggering
losses.
The invaders started the blitzkrieg
four years ago. A blitzkrieg that takes
four years to get going rather appeals
10 the Chinese sense of humor. The
japanese "blitz" does not seem 10 have
enough voltage.
Now the Japanese are beginning to
realize what the so-called Chinese incl
dent" means; because the China Incl
dent has, incidentally, cost Japan 1,700,-
900 casualties up to December 81, 1910
according to the Chinese Minister of
War
Today, after four years of war, with
terrific bombardments from the air
China is still on her feet and is actually
stronger in military strength than at the
beginning of the war. Many factors ac-
count for this. One is the united front
of the Chinese toward japanese aggres-
sion
There is no doubt that there has been