Evening star., 1941-10-09
Nozis Facing q Showdown
Outcome Of Russian Compoign This Year
Hinges on Timoshenko Defense Of Moscow

happened the whole of Field Mar
shal Ritter Won Leeb's armies in the
Leningrad district might be lost,
just as the British Belgian French
armies of the northwest were lost
when the Germans broke through
down the valley of the Somme last
year.
All of these considerations were
doubtless well weighed by the Ger
man high command in deciding to
use their reserves in double blow
at Marshal Timoshenko. 1t is per-
haps hasty judgment to assume that
this is a desperate gamble to win
Moscow before winter sets in. AS
previously pointed out in these arti-
cles, winter will not stop military
operations in Russia; it will slow
them down, make them more diff.
cult, but it will not set a term to
them. The real checkrein on the
Germans is available reserve troops,
Probably the attack on Marshal
Timoshenko represents the last large
mass of reserve forces which the
Germans can gather together this
year.
Nazis Equipped to Surprise.
The clearing for German use of a
large part of the great north-south
railway from Leningrad to Cher
nigov gives the Germans a good line
of later communications, and there
has been time for the German engi-
neerS to convert this line, and feeder
lines leading to 1t from Germany,
to the German gauge. This facility
of movement, added to the German
air superiority, enables the Germans
to concentrate more quickly than
the Russians and to strike before
the Russians are ready, with
greater knowledge of Russian dis
positions than the Russians possess
of German dispositions. All this
tends toward the achievement of
tactical surprise by the Germans.
On the other hand, the Russians
have for some time been engaged
in improving the defenses of Mos
cow on a radius of 100-150 miles
from that city. Moscow, with its
spreading web Of rail and road COM
munications and its defensive out
works, forms vast fortress area
which will prove difficult of pene-
tration. The measure of German
success in the north and in the
south rested, as previously stated,
on the respective abilities of Mar
shall Voroshiloff and Marshal Bud
yenny to avoid too great loss of
troops and equipment. In this Mar
shall Voroshiloff has so far been sue
cessful, and Marshal Budyenny at
least partially so. 1t is now Mar
shall Timoshenkos turn. II he can
do likewise, the Germans will not
have won the war in Russia this
year. ..- .a
Even Germans Tire. .t
The sustained striking power Of
the German war machine has
never been more magnificently
demonstrated than in this long
Russian campaign with its enor-
nous frontiers and lengthening
lines of communications. Even
that machine must, however, come
somewhere to the end Of its imme-
diate effectiveness. Even German
soldiers must pause to rest and
recuperate. Weighing all the factors
to be considered, the chances seem
to be that in the center, as in the
north and the south, the Germans
will fall short of their full objec-
tive; that they will make gains, but
not decisive gains. Much depends,
however, on the Russian ability to
continue to supply and munition
their forces; the greater their loss
of industrial facilities, the greater
their peril in the field. All of which
tends to emphasize the Importance
of the Anglo-American missions to
Moscow, and the need for improving
and expanding the capacity of the
very few and difficult lines of supply
by which American aid can be de-
Gvered to the Russian fighting
fronts.
Copyright, 1941, New York Tribune, Inc.