Evening star., 1941-05-18
Believes Hitler Will
Lose Long War
BIZ ODen L. Scott.

| ing throughout the world will be dif-
ferent from any other in modern times.
The strategy is different, the weapons
are different, the scope is broader.
Strange as it may seem, this can be
said of the American status:
The United States today is as pre-
pared in its way as Adolf Hitler Is in
his for the type of contest that appears
] to lie ahead. Further, in this struggle
| the final decision is likely to be on the
side with the greatest staying power,
not on the side with the greatest armies.
Points that this country's strategists
keep in mind are:
Hitler, on his side, has what looks
like an unbeatable army. His team Of
tanks and airplanes-a team now highly
skilled through practice-is likely to
have its way wherever 1t can operate.
The Hitler army probably will be SUI
| preme wherever it can march and still
be adequately supplied.
But there is another side to the story.
| The United States and Britain pos
sess apparently unbeatable navies. These
navies are supreme wherever ships can
sail and still be supplied. The British
Navy is tried and tested in war. The
American Navy, although not expert
enced in battle, never was so strong as
it Is today
Here enters the factor in this war
that seldom gets attention.
Hitler's armies for all of their 260 di-
visions, and their airplanes and tanks,
cannot fight the British and American
Navies, unless it is in the narrow waters
around Britain herself. Likewise, the
British and American Navies, for all Of
their ships and airplanes, cannot fight
Hitler's armies, except in occasional
forays.
eventually may turn.
The area over which Hitler's armies
may march and conquer cannot support
itself, for all of its size. In foodstuffs
there is shortage of wheat and sugar,
vegetable oils, dairy products and coffee.
In industrial materials there is short
age of phosphates, nitrates, rubber,
leather, wool, cotton, silk, copper and
| other metals
The area over which the British and
American Navies can extend their sway
has a super abundance of nearly every
thing This abundance is accessible and
can be carried over the ocean highways
| to the United States and to Britain for
| processing and use. 1t assures that
there will be plenty for the peoples and
plenty for the military and naval forces.
The result is this:
So long as the British and American
Navies can bottle up Hitler in Europe,
| North Africa, Russia and the Near East
he can talk about new order" but
cannot build a real new order" that
can sustain itself over the years. Within
the area of his control will be hungry
people, inefficient industry, shortages
that interfere with his plans and impose
strains upon his entire regime.
Also, so long as the British and Ameri-
can Navies can keep Hitler bottled up,
the British and American Empires-ex-
cept for England herself-can go ahead
with their development and organize the
remainder Of the world into real new
order. with a power that cannot be
matched by anything Europe is able to
| create.
The difficulty from the British-Ameri-
can point of view is this:
England is in an exposed position. Her
industry is subject to constant air attack.
Her ports are vulnerable to attack Her
problem of supply, to support popula-
ton of 100000 and to supply a war
industry besides, is extremely difficult.
Furthermore, there always is the danger
| of invasion, owing to the nearness to
Hitler controlled Europe
The British Isles, as center of en-
| pire and as the site of a war industry,
are in an extremely difficult position.
But the British Isles, as base for air
and naval operations against Germany
and as military, naval and air fortress,
| are something else again. In British
American hands England is point from
which attack can be launched on Ger
many and base from which the sea
lanes leading out Of Europe can be con-
trolled. In German hands, England is
a point from which the route to Europe
can be guarded and is one of the many
stepping stones from which an encir-
cling movement can be directed against
this Nation.
All of these are considerations that
enter deeply into calculations of Ameri-
can officials, who must determine Ameri-
can policy. There are some other con-
siderations as well. They concern Japan.
! The Japanese are allies of Hitler and
are letting 1t be known they want moth
ing more than favorable opportunity
in which to do little stabbing in the
American back. This stabbing would be
done at some time inconvenient for this
country and convenient for Japan.
However, there is another weakness
in the position of the Axis powers. This
weakness. just as in Germany's case, is
due to lack of supply.
The japanese lack about everything
with which to conduct modern war on
any extended basis. They do not have
access to oil or iron or wool or lumber
or cotton or any Of large number of
vital war materials. The United States,
throughout Japan's war with China, has
supplied the Japanese war machine.
To cut off those supplies and to make
sure Japanese sea power was bottled up
would strangle that nation. Germany,
lacking sea power, would be unable to
| come to the rescue. China at war with