Evening star., 1941-10-12
S. p. A. B. Plans Drastic Moves
To Spur Lagging Arms Output
May, Recently Returned From England Asserts
Present Rate Could Go on 10 Years
Without Beating Axis
By Clarke Beach.

An entirely new approach to the prob
lem of arming the United States has
been taken by the Supply Priorities and
Allocation Board the new super-agency
for defense. and officials predict that
shortly, perhaps within weeks, dras-
tically revised and vastly augmented pro-
gram will be adopted.
Such a move is urgently required for
reasons of national safety, say high OFF,
cialS who for months have expressed
alarm at the slow rate at which defense
production has been picking up, basing
their opinions on Army and Navy re-
ports of production-f1gures which they
cannot reveal, for reasons of military
secrecy.
One of these men, Stacy May, who, as
chief of the bureau of research and
statistics for o. P NJ, has access to all
information on defense production, re-
Gently returned from months trip to
England, where the British government
enabled him to make thorough analysis
of its war production program He is
Rockefeller Foundation economist, on
leave.
AT our present rate, we could go on
for 10 years or perhaps indefinitely,
without beating the Axis" Mr.. May said
in an interview.
On the other hand, this country could
"decisively outproduce Hitler" he added,
and the war could be won in 1943 or
1914 if the present scheduled production
rate for 1912 were doubled. This would
mean that half our national income, or
about S45 900 900 900, would be spent next
year for defense. compared to the present
plan to spend about $50 900 900 0o0 This
year We are spending about S13, 500 900, 900.
Sees Disaster at Present Rate.
"Our program has been consistently
behind The need, and We have been
consistently behind the program said
Mr.. May.
If the defense program goes on at its
presently scheduled rate for next decade,
Mr. May can see only disaster ahead.
I'VE shall have to close down an i'm
portant group of consumer goods indus
tries" he said. Our civilian industries
will be broken up for so long time that
people working in them will be weaned
away from their normal trades and Skills.
IF it goes on long enough, We shall
build up a national debt which will be
larger in toto than it would be if We
settled down now to do a strenuous job
In shorter period
People will be geared for years to q
wartime psychology, which is singu-
larly upsetting thing. Besides, We all
churn, feeling that We have committed
ourselves to job, and the job isn't being
done"
But S. P. A. B., Mr. May added, is
taking steps in the right direction IS.
P. A. B. is going to spell out the job and
tell what has to be done to get this thing
finished"
Another official closely connected with
S. P A. B. said that agency has ordered
a study of the full requirements of mill
tary goods to out-produce the Axis, TAX
ing into consideration the needs of this
Nation, of the lease-lend beneficiaries,
including South America and of the civil
economy.
Study Of Productive Powers.
S.P. A. B. has ordered study Of the
United States full productive powers, to
learn where supplies can be increased
and what is the maximum the United
States can produce.
When these facts have been ascer-
tanned, the defense officials will have two
items of information they never have
had before: What the full need is and
what must be done to fill the need.
Heretofore, they have known only what
the Army and Navy were on the verge
of ordering, and all they could do was
try to provide the productive capacity to
fill the immediate need. The services
have repeatedly boosted their orders in
accordance with each of the 10 or more
new defense appropriations. The pro-
gram changed from month to month,
and no long-term estimate Of the total
requirement was attempted.
The President is said to be backing S.
P. A. B. in its new approach to the prob
lem, and, in fact, to have created the