Evening star., 1941-02-16
Sharp Speedup
In Arms Drive
Seen Ahead
Efforts Intensified
By Gloomy Testimony
On Aid Bill
Dispatch TO The S'sr.

STeClaI DlSpatCn 10 Inc y AT.
NEW YORK. Feb. l5-The testi-
mony presented at Washington in
support of the immediate passage
of the lend-lease bill for war aid
to Great Britain has painted a pes
simistic picture Of Brltain's ability
to withstand the threatened Ger
man siege this spring, Standard
Statistics Co. points out.
American business has been told
in so many words that the odds On
a successful British defense against
an alI-out German attack are no
better than even and has been
warned that such an attack may
well be started within the next so
daVs
That the lend-Iease bill will be
enacted by Congress in Substan-
TALLY its present form is a foregons
conclusion. although final action is
not expected much before March I.
Regardless of this measure, which
by its nature preSageS further ex-
pansion in arms output, the fears
respecting the possible European
war situation later this spring are
/ having the effect of accelerating
war preparations in this country
and Of expanding our entire arms
/ program.
/ Effects of British Invasion
| "If Britain is actually invaded
/ this spring-and there IS. Of course.
/ still a considerable degree Of doubt
as TO whether the German war
| lords will actually make the attempt
! they now threaten-BritiSh arms
production will inevitably be cur
/ tailed.
Regardless Of the ultimate out
come Of any attempt this spring to
| effect the complete conquest Of
Britain, it is foregone conclusion
/ that leading industrial centers will
| be heavily bombed. II can be taken
| for granted, therefore. that many
/ plants will be out Of commission
/ entirely for varying periods. and
! that operations of others will be
! drastically curtailed as a result Of
plant damage material shortages,
transportation difficulties. or dam
age TO power facilities.
British production of aircraft. ex-
| plosives. arms and naval and COM
mercial vessels is at best below that
/ Of the axis powers Il must be
stepped up materially if the British
are TO defend their own territory
successfully and must be further
advanced if the British forces are
TO be able to carry out anv i'm
portant offensive measures of their
own. While the various members Of
the British Empire are supplement-
ing the home production of war
equipment. the United States must
assume an increasingly important
part in closing any gaps created as
a result Of direct industrial damage
within the British Isles.
Thus. the time factor in the
American arms program is becoming
increasingly important 1t is not
even now question Of whether an
attempt is to be made by Germany
al direct invasion of Britain this
spring or whether there will be
merely resumption of large scale
bombings In either event. an ac-
Celerated movement of supplies
from the United States will be
essential
Schedules Revised.
The time tables originally set I'D
for the United States defense pro-
gram called for the construction
and equlpping Of new arms plants to
be largely completed by the end Of
the third quarter of this year. with
these plants gradually swinging into
production in the final quarter.
Those time tables must now be
radically revised and they are being
revised
attainment of large scale pro-
duction of various items of defense
equipment will still not be possible
for number of months under even
the most favorable circumstances.
However, a gradually Increasing
flow of such equipment Will be pos
slble beginning at an earlier date
than was called for in the original
schedules. Under the lend lease pro-
gram such equipment will probably
be diverted en- maSSe to the British.
I'VE have, in any event. now
reached the stage where the whole
program will be put under forced
draft. Until now the defense au-
thOrltieS have moved cautiously with
respect to the adoption OF policies
which might seriously interfere
with the non defense industries.
Henceforth, it is a reasonable as
sumption that these policies will be
modified and full priorities for de-
tense plants adopted.
New Plants Prepared.
"COmpoSite indexes of industrial
production are now about as high
as they can go until the new pro-
duction facilities now under way in
various industries come into full
scale production.
Normally, the trend of industrial
volumes is upward al this time of
the year and allowance for such ex-
pansiOn is made in the usual sea-
/ sonally corrected indexes. Since the
/ (See INDUSTRY, Page E-3D