Evening star., 1941-02-21
Discord Within Japan
Heightens Concern
Over War Here
Whether Toxic Forces
Conflict May Hinge on
Which Clique Prevails
BY GARNETT ID. HORNER.

Concern over the possibility of
Japan forcing war in the South Pa
cific which might involve the United
States is heightened by realiza-
ton that discord between mill
taristic and conservative elements
in Toxic makes japanese intentions
uncertain from day to day, informed
quarters here pointed out today.
One authority, in a position to
know as much as any one In Wash
ington about conditions in the Far
East, emphasized that mainly be-
cause of this under the surface con-
f1ict in the shaping of Japanese
policy it was "anybody's guess" as
to whether Japan might go so far as
to precipitate new conflict in her
drive for economic expansion SOUTH
ward.
His comment gave fresh meaning
to the admission at press confer
ence Wednesday by Admiral Kichi-
saburo Nomura, new japanese Am
bassador here, that he could not say
with absolute definiteness" that
Japan would not resort to force, al
though "she is doing her utmost to
avoid this"
Navy Men Less Belligerent.
1t was explained that, in general,
the "old heads" of the japanese
Navy-of which Admiral Nomura is
one-have counseled a less beliger-
ent policy involving steps that might
bring conflict with Great Britain or
the United States, than have the
leaders of Japan's Army. The navy
men have had opportunity for wider
contacts in the outside world, 1t was
explained. and have a realistic ap-
probation of risks for Japan in set
ting the British or American fleets
against her.
On the other hand, according to
this source with long experience in
the Orient, japanese Army leaders
are generally more provincial in
outlook. The only contact with the
armies of other nations for most of
them has been with those of Russia
and China. he said, and conse-
quently they are prone to under
estimate the strength of other
powers by using Russian and Chi
nese standards of military efficiency
as basis of comparison with their
own.
In the background of the tense |
situation, with indications that the |
japanese may be planning attacks
on the Netherlands East Indies or
on the British Straits Settlements |
stirring worldwide concern, is an
apparent desire by the japanese |
Army TO divert attention from its
failure to succeed so far in its effort |
to conquer all China.
Controlling Voice Uncertain.
The Nippon army leaders, it was
said, traditionally have held that
Japan's destiny lay in continental
expansion. This policy led to the
Manchurian conquest and to the |
present conflict with China. Navy
men were said to have contended for
a conflicting objective-peaceful eco
nor1ic expansion southwark, in the .
area where attention is centered .
now, only so far as it could be
gained without armed opposition
from Britain or this country.
Uncertainty over which element in
the Japanese government may exer-
else the controlling voice intensifles
the delicate nature of the crisis, ac-
cording to authorities. If the con-
leaders of the navy and
the career foreign service have their
way, Japan is expected to ste short
of provoking an open confli-t with
Britain and this country. On the
other hand, a "hot-headed" decision
might lead to belligerent incidents.
This Government repeatedly has
made clear to Japan its concern"
for maintenance of the status quo
in the South Pacific, particularly
with reference to the Netherlands
East Indies. vital source of several
strategic materials for American de-
tense production. Indications that
action might be taken
to meet any hostile Japanese moves
ii that area have come from fire.
1uent conferences among State De-
partment officials and the British,
and Netherlands envoys
here. The conferences have been
described officially as merely for the
exchange of information, leaving
Toxic to guess as to the extent and
type of the cooperation.