Detroit evening times. (Detroit, Mich) 1921-1958, 1941-10-28
Impossible
To JudgeWa
At This Time
Possible ia p Entrance
Too Upsettine
BY HUGH s. JOHNSON

A THING astonishing TO the
"A student of the worlds mill
tary campaigns is the rapid
fluctuation of public hope and
fear.
Germany slashes suddenly at
Russia and we are told. on the
basis of what happened in
France and the Scandinavian
countries that the campaign will
be over in four weeks.
Russia retreats, turns. holds
on and we learn that the Nazi
army has failed. England
launches her own blitzkrieg in
north Africa and we jubilate.
Germany lashes back and we
are filled with gloom.
MARS don't work that way.
w Every one is a little diff
ferent. There was luck in the
German victory over France.
French elements of defense were
not properly disposed. The dis
tances were short, the country
rich the system of hard roads
TO bring German motorized
forces into concentrated action
were unexcelled.
Russia was a different prob
lena country of distance, few
and poor roads, masses of men
TO sacrifice - il was more like
fighting a row of pillows than
bowling at pyramid of duck
pins.
No immediate victory was
possible and the Nazis seemed
TO understand this-perhaps not
well enough. but their dispo-
sitions were different.
IT IS hard TO draw precise
L parallels with the past be-
cause we have two new elements
motorized ground troops and
aerial navies. But we would do
well to remember our own Civil
War.
There also, the distances were
magnificent. There also. the
North had superiority in both
numbers and supplies. But even
after Lee had been sent reeling
from Gettysburg, VickSburg had
been taken, the Confederacy
split in two and Sherman and
Thomas had defeated Johnston
and Hood in the central area.
the outcome was by no means
certain.
The terrific slaughter Of the
Wilderness campaign and the
siege Of Richmond were yet TO
come.
lid you ever stop 10 think of
~ the situation. before Gettys-
burg, with Lees army. ravag-
ing Pennsylvania in separate
columns not unlike the three
pronged attack of the Germans
in Russia and threatening Har-
riSburg, Philadelphia and even
Washington from .the north and
west?
Even Gettysburg was a bit OF
luck for the North. and, but for
the plumbers of Longstreet and
Stewart it might have turned
out differently did Chancel-
louisville and Fredericksburg and
Second Manassas.
Napoleon, on at least two &C.
caSions, was within a hairs
breadth of defeat. 1t is impoS-
Sible TO judge this war at this
stage. New elements may enter
at any moment--for example
our taking on Japan
WHAT was the element that
w sustained both Lincoln and
Napoleon. in spite of days black
as the pit?
1t was neither any cocky con-
clusion from monetary victory
nor any confidence in victory at
every local success. 1t was a
determination to minimize mo-
ments of disaster and a faith in
eventual victory.
Perhaps no man on earth has
these qualities 10 an extent
equal TO those of Wins ton
Churchill That he is inpulsive
and sometimes unreasoning be-
OBSERVATION-DISCLOSURES
Incidents in his career--Antwerp,
Gallipoli. Salonika, the Skagger-
rack, Norway. Greece and Malta
but his unshakable determine
ton places him among the great
leaders.
For the rest of us. ii would be
well not TO indulge in too many
ups and downs from the war
bulletins. In many ways and in
the wider sense we have had all
the breaks. Not the least of
them was the decision of the
two aspiring world conquerors.
Hitler and Stain TO tear at
each others threats.
DETR6k 0ES