Evening star., 1941-06-08
Industry Plans
Busiest Summer
In History
Production Is Expected
To Stage Fresh Rise
From Plateau
BY FRANK MacMILLEN,
Associated Press Business Writer.

NEW YORK, June 7.-Production
planners for some of the greatest
industries in the country were chart
ing courses today for the most active
summer in the history Of the country.
Shrewd observers of the business
scene said the plateau formation"
the high, almost straight line, which
is the picture industrial activity has
made on the charts of analysts
since the first of the year. now seeks
definitely broken and a new climb
appears under way.
With the physical production of
the country's factories at the high
est levels in history with automo-
bile plants. steel and cotton mills.
power plants and building all at or
near record levels: with the de-
fense specialties such as aircraft
manufacture and shipbuilding en-
gagged in an effort far ahead Of any
former period. even the last war,
men shaping the course of business
plans for the next few months saw
such high lights as this in the rapid
ly developing picture Of summer and
early autumn conditions.
Usual Lag Missing.
/. Little or no trace of the lag in
production and trade which is a
normal feature of the summer
months.
2. A further acceleratlon of 6 or
7 per cent. maybe more, in the pace
of industry between now and Sep
tember or october.
8. A rapidly growing pinch in
many lines Of consumption for the
average citizen. This will Je more
noticeable next fall but may become
acute in some summer-peak items,
such as gasoline in the East, con-
siderably sooner.
a. A rise of 5 to 10 per cent in the
cost of living-barring more drastic
action by the Government to freeze
prices.
5. Retail business which will fully
hold its own through the hot wealth
er. and may extend present gains Of
16 to 20 per cent over last year.
Predictions Hazardous.
While this composite of the views
of a number of economic and trade
observers here is forming the basis
for much business planning. all OBJ
servers agreed prediction was espe-
cialy hazardous.
War over half the world and
s36 900 100000 arms and lease-lend
program. along with wide govern
ment powers to control all phases Of
business have turned predictions into
guesses. analysts said.
The predictions we're based on the
underlying theory that while de-
fense priorities may be progressively
clamped on during the next few
months. cutting the supply of civilian
goods and even curtailing or end
ing some kinds of mon essential
factory activity. the growing needs
of the arms program will take up
the slack
Retail trade. taken as a whole. 1t
was suggested, will probably be able
TO get through the summer at pres
ent high levels because stocks of
everyday consumers needs are un-
usually large at storekeepers, who'll
salers and manufacturers had pre-
pared earlier this year for the eX-
pected pinch of defense priorities.
The situation may begin to change
toward the end of summer in a
number of lines, it was added.
The automobile industry was cited
as an example of the way in which
defense needs are expected to re-
place civilian demand as the power
behind the industrial drive.
AS the model year draws to a
close in July-about a month later
than usual because of brisk retail
demand-much of the plant work
force and material will be diverted
to armament. This should leave lit
tie lag in industry despite the fact
manufacturers plan to cut pleasure
car output next season by 20 per
cent, perhaps more.
New Plants Ready.
Also important in assuring that
the physical quantity of goods turned
out by the country's factories will
not dip this summer, even though
civilian lines lag. are the new arms
plants coming to the production
stage. analysts said.
Aircraft, gun, tank. shell. exc
plosive, steel and many other sorts
of factories are being rushed to COM
pletion as rapidly as possible and
new ones are being started
Some of these plants will begin
to turn out finished products in the
next few months, analysts said, and
the pace will rise rapidly toward the
end of the summer and during the
fall. But it will be early next year
before most of the new arms plants
come to whirring life.