Evening star., 1941-06-22
Germany Must Be Sure of Soviet
AS Arsenal of Totalitarianism'
With L. S. Aid to Britain Presaging Long War,
Germany May Invade Russia to Get
Essential Raw Materials
By Felix Morley.

which the staff of the institution COL
lectS, checks, analyzes and presents to
the public. 1t is this wholly objective
approach which for many years has
made the Brookings studies so valuable
as handbooks on current issues.
The present volume assumes, on the
basis of its analysis that Germany will,
at the end of the war, control all of
continental Europe west of Russia"
The food and raw material require
mentS of this area are then examined
by categories.
Europe Not Self Sufficient.
In the great majority of commodities
it is concluded that, far from being
self-sufficient, Nazified Europe would
be even more dependent on foreign
trade than was pre-War Germany. The
territory which has been subjugated is,
on balance an additional strain rather
than a relief for the central economy
of the Reich itself.
The study on 'Nazi Europe and
World Trade" further considers the
possibility that the entire Mediter-
ranean littoral, including Turkey, Syria,
Lebanon, Palestine. Egypt and the is
land of Cyprus, may come under Ger
man control. But even with this addi-
tional conquest the problem of supply
would not have been solved for Ger
many. Deficiency would still be more
pronounced than surplus, particularly
in certain raw materials vital to the
functioning of basic Industries.
1t may be argued that this inquiry by
the Brookings Institution pays insult
ficient attention to the development of
synthetic substitutes, in such fields as
rubber and textiles. Nor does it en-
phasize the amazing power of adaptation
and economical usage which the Ger
mans have already fully demonstrated.
But when all allowances OF this nature
are made it remains impossible to ques-
ton the conclusion that "Germany'S sup
ply problem has not been solved by her
seizures of neighboring territories. On
the contrary, it has been made more
difficult"
For Germany, in other words, victory
has increased vulnerability.
If hostilities were in their closing
stages, if American -belligerency
could be relied upon and a negotiated
peace could be anticipated, this paradox
would cause no concern in Berlin. The
Nazi war machine is not yet grinding for
lack of oil, using the term generically
But none knows better than the Ger
man leaders themselves that in time it
will break down, unless present deficien-
cies in the problem of supply can be
remedied.
Russia Has Raw Materials.
That is the background examined in
detail in the current study from the
Brookings Institution, against which the
present uneasiness in Russo-German re-
lations must be examined That is the
economic evidence which would seem
to make an actual German invasion of
Russia not merely plausible but even
almost probable.
Russia is not in position to supply
all of the economic deficiencies of West
eIll EUROPE. buI Ill lIle eSSenIldlS Vi
cereals, oil and cotton, together with
phosphate, manganese, chromite and
other minerals particularly important
for war making, the potential Russian
supply is enormous.
They may well figure that actual occu-
patton of at least key positions in the
Ukraine and the Caucasus is necessary
both for the intensive exploitation and
the transportation of certain supplies
which Western Europe lacks. And GER
tainly Hitler will be the more likely to
take that step, with or without Stalin's
consent, if he concludes that the United
States is preparing for actual belliger-
ency.
American entry into the war, as Secre-
tary Stimson intimates, would not be
likely to shorten its duration. 1t would
be more likely to spread hostilities to
quarters of the globe where an uneasy
peace still fingers.
Before the emergence of new and
very different world, all mankind may
have reason to realize that If the state
of peace is not made secure the state of
war will always tend to become uni
versal.