Evening star., 1941-03-23

Let's quit kidding ourselves!
National defense is either a serious
business or it is not. If it is a serious
business, and I believe it is, let's take
it seriously
Let's quit kidding ourselves that since
there are so many millions of unem-
ployed to draw on the defense program
can be carried out easily, without dis
turbing our normal economic life.
This argument has been heard fire.
quently during recent months 1t is a
simple argument: There are millions of
unemployed; millions of men will be
needed to produce defense goods let the
unemployed, therefore, be drawn in to
produce the needed material; this process
will enable the country to have butter
and guns. too
The argument is sometimes presented
In an even more attractive form. as fol-
lows: AS the unemployed are given jobs
making armaments, they will have new
incomes; they will spend most of those
incomes on their current needs, this new
spending will create new demand for
consumer goods and more employment
opportunity; therefore, the country will
have not only the guns, but more butter
According to this argument. the defense
program will be sort of super w. P. A
p. w. A.; it will produce both guns and
prosperity.
Two Important Factors.
What are the facts?
There are two important factors:
l. The quantity of defense goods that
are required. the speed with which they
are needed and the productive power
needed to produce the goods.
2. The amount of idle productive
power that is ready or can be made avail
able to produce the goods.
Let's take up these points in order.
First, how big and how fast is the de-
fense program? AS planned in the Presi-
dents budget message of January, 1941,
these are the money outlays:
Fiscal year. Defense cost
19391940 ---s1 81 $50 900 900
1940-1941 (estimated)- 6464 900 900
1941-1942 (estimated 1881 900 900
Expend'4 res by and for the British
will be IN addition to these amounts
Also, the President has already called
for increases.
No one knows exactly what the peak
labor requirements. some time in 1912,
will be. Competent estimates center
around 100000 men on 40-hour week,
or 100000 on a 48-hour week How do
these figures compare with the number
of unemployed?
How many unemployed were there
when the defense program started? In
March, 1910, excluding the unemploy-
ables, there were about 100000 COM
pletely unemployed, 100000 employed
on emergency public works-a total of
8,400000. On the face of these figures,
1t would appear that if not more than
100000 are needed, the job could be
done by using the unemployed.
Men Must Be Skilled.
This argument, however. neglects the
matter of whether the unemployed have
the talents and training necessary to do
tIlc JUL aDOuI OIle-IIllIu Ol IIle men
needed must be skilled, another third
semi-skilled, the other third unskilled.
The big items in the defense program
are ships, planes, ammunition, guns,
trucks and tanks-not general industrial
work, but mostly Woodworking jobs.
Putting the matter plainly. the skills
required are highly specialized-shipyard
workers, industrial workers. foundry and
machine shop, construction, assembly
line work. These are not jobs which
unemployed actors, statesmen and bar
bers are trained to fill. How many un-
employed are there who have the
needed skills?
A survey of 100000 persons, mostly
unemployed, who were registered with
the United States Employment Service
in September, 1910, showed that there
were only $4,000 qualified" workers in
She 500 selected defense industry skills.
(Eyperiaoce has shown that tho nl1alifi-