Evening star., 1941-03-21
Says Events Direct
Public Opinion
Propaganda Held Secondary
Factor in Shifts of
Sentiment
By HolUdrd w. Bl1keSlee,
Associated Press Staff Writer.

causing most of the big shifts In Amer
ican war opinion as charted by national
surveys at Princeton University.
The invasion of Norway, or the sea
fight at Oran, are examples. Also i'm
portant are domestic events, notably the
national election and Roosevelt fireside
talk
The Princeton charts show a large
swing of American sentiment in the ap-
parent direction Of war, but the causes,
so far as the charts disclose them, would
surprise those who suspect that propa-
ganda is dominant.
propaganda" said DR.. Hadley Cantril,
associate professor of psychology, in
charge of the work, "is important. But
it is not the all-powerful weapon that
some people make it out to be.
For instance, probably no amount OF
German propaganda, no matter how
skillfully handled, could make us fight on
the German side.
1.-THE important thing Is the way IN
which events-some of them, to be sure,
are propaganda in their motives-strike
the people whose interests, values and
prejudices are already pretty well fixed"
The war sentiment is shown in great
graph covering large attic wall in the
building housing the Princeton public
opinion research project. A grant from
one of the large American foundations
supports the work and the data is OBJ
tained by the same sampling methods
and the same interviewers who produce
one of the nationally public opinion
polls.
On the wall dozen chalk lines trace
the course of various American opinions
on war questions. Most Of them run
from The outset of the war to the
present.
At the bottom Of the WALL below all
the opinion lines, are written, month
by month. or week by week, the dra-
matte events of the period. 1t is di-
rectly above some of these events that
the opinion lines show most of their
changes in direction.
An example Is the question considered
uppermost at present in American
minds. This reads: "Is is more impor-
tant to help England even at risk Of
war than to keep out of WARP"
Only 35 per cent of those answering
said yes" in May, 1910. But after the
French surrender this opinion began
a rather steep climb. The mass air
raids on Britain and the Tokio-Rome-
Berlin axis pact boosted this line some
more.
1t rose to 60 per cent "yes" in Sep
tember.
The next big event, the october wind
up of the American political campaign,
turned this opinion line rather abruptly
downward. yes" dropped nearly 10
per cent.
The explanation, DR.. Cantril said, was
probably that the campaign had taken
peoples minds somewhat off war and
that both major party candidates were
talking OF keeping out of war
But after election the opinion rose
again to 6G per cent yes" No special
cause for this rebound was apparent.
However there occurred on December
% an event which again seemed directly
to influence this opinion. That was the
Presidents first fireside talk after elec-
ton. Quickly then the line rose to 68
per cent meaning more than two-thirds
answered ''yes-even at risk of war"
The opinion that the United States
would get into war Chat is, regardless
of whether the person answering fav-
ored th;s) started at the beginning of
war with yes" from about half those
questioned 1t fell to dow of % per
cent when France quit
Then came the British attack on the
French fleet at Oran. Immediately this
opinion rose to Al per cent. The fight
appeared to be taken as the first con-
crete sign that England would carry on.
After Japan joined the Rome-Berlin
axis this opinion went up to So per cent.
Then the October election dropped it to
48. After election this opinion rose to
about 62 per cent and has been fairly
steady since.
This Toklo-Rome-Berln pact was con-
sidered to be the only piece of propa-
ganda showing marked influence on
sentiment. OF course, the pact also was
an event, but its timing suggested the
date was chosen for propaganda effect.
AS propaganda, it backfired, pushing
American war sentiment up instead of
down, the chart shows. DR.. Cantril said
persons who favor aid to Britain also
tend to favor helping China and to join
in any sentiment against dictators.
Congressional hearings have not vet
been followed by noticeable opinion
swings. This may be explained, DR..
Cantril said, because they last long
time and because so many people pick
out only the arguments they wish to
believe
In opinions for or against military con-
scription, only about one-third of the
answers were "yes" early in the war. But
the invasion of Norway and of the Low
Countries was followed by change to a
majority favoring CONSUMPTION.
OF all opinion changes, the greatest one
occurred among young men whose fami-
lies earn $4,000 year or more Last May,
80 per cent of these boys were against
war. In october, only "a per cent of
them remained against
A surprise is that having young men
of military age in the family does not
seem to make any difference in opinions
either for or against risking war.
However, although the aid-to-Britain
"even at risk of war" sentiment has risen
to a little above two-thirds of those
answering, yet the question, do you
think the United States should declare
war on Germany?" never has been above