Evening star., 1941-12-14
The Cost Of Victory Will
Be High
BIZ OUen L. Scott.

| of that outline, the planners have en-
gagged In heavy pencil work, and are
ready with a rough approximation OF
| the cost Of the job.
Briefly, the resulting picture OF the
forces needed is this: An Army air force
| Of 1900 900 men; a land army, heavily
mechanized, of just under 100000 men;
a Navy of 100000 men, including air
force; a merchant marine. to transport
and to supply forces In operation rough
ly twice the size of that now planned.
The cost In dollars: approximately
$50, 900, 900, 900, with the biggest expense
centered in the Army, the air force and
! in lend-lease aid to other armies.
These are very big and very important
figures. Also, they are very far from
being translated into reality. The Army
and Navy base their estimate on the
size of forces needed upon the premise
| that full offensive operations can be set
under way by mid-l943 That gives barely
eighteen months to create an Army and
an Army air force four times the present
size and to bring the equipment of the
Army and air force to full strength. In
the same time. the Navy must be gres tly
enlarged and the merchant marine must
be expanded immensely.
Few of these plans. other than those
of air force and Navy, touch directly
upon war with Japan. The japanese
problem is considered to be one calling
for air and naval action. 1t is not con-
sidered probable that any large Ameri-
| can forces could be used to conduct an
! invasion attempt. Rather, emphasis Is
upon aid to the very large Chinese
ARMIES that might do far more of1en-
sive work if properly armed. This coun-
trys record Of preparation for war. to
date, is not impressive.
The figures suggest that emphasis has
been upon appropriating money rather
than upon translating appropriations
into actual weapons with which to wage
war, There is appropriated or about to
be appropriated. a total of about S73.-
900 900 900 for the Army, Navy. Maritime
Commission and other defense agencies.
That is approximately half of the
amount that is considered by the Army
and Navy to be suficient to do the job.
But OF this amount, barely half has
even been contracted for and less than
SIS, 900 900 000--or one fifth of the money
available and one-tenth of that regarded
as necessary-has actually been spent.
This is the record after l8 months Of ef-
fort. 1t means that the United States
with an industry nearly five times as
great as that Of England and at least
twice the size of Germanys has been
making war effort smaller than that of
England and far smaller than that of
Germany.
In fact. the United States during the
past year and half has devoted itself
to talking a great armament effort while
struggling in every way to maintain
business as usual. Now that the shooting
is started. the country will wish that its
attitude had been different.
But that is water over the dam. The
lob ahead is perfectly immense and one
that is going to demand many sacrifices
on the part of civilians, as well as OF
soldiers and sailors and flyers.
First of all, it is going to be necessary
to speed the production OF arms.
1t does no good to vote appropriations
of dollars and then to sit back and take
1t for granted that those dollars already
are guns and airplanes and other weap-
ons. Congress actually has appropri-
ated more than $4,000 100000 for the
Army. Yet barely $4,000 900 900 of that
amount has been placed under contract
and only $4,000 000, 900 has been spent In
Is months. The record for the Navy Is
! $4,000 100000 appropriated. 0oooo'-
900 under contract and only $4,000, ,OO0O00
spent. For lease-lend it is $4,000, 900 900
appropriated, S., ,00O, 900, 900 contracted for
and about 5000 900 900 spent.
Those look like big figures. but in re-
| lation to demands Of modern war they
are small. Except for airplanes. only
a trickle of weapons has come from the
production lines. Now, If American SOL
| diers and sailors are to be able to do the
lob assigned them, there must be a vast
effort on the part Of American INDUSTRY
Otherwise this country is due for some
very costly surprises.
Then, with a step-up in production, 1t
is going to be necessary for civilians TO
tighten their belts.
The people Of this country no longer
can expect to 90 on demanding record
production Of automobiles and houses and
clothing and all of the things that go to
make high standard OF civilian nVlng
while they expect to win a modern war
The two don't 60 together. If the Army
and NAVY and their air forces are to have
the equipment that they require for their
task. then civilians are going to have 10
60 without many things.
Up to now the country has resisted a
shift out of civilian into arms produc-
| ton. It's demands have caused arms
production to be made secondary, with
results that now probably will be meas
,,red in terms of Army and Navy losses.
| on the land and in the air.
After belts are frightened, 1t Is going
to be necessary for this country to settle
down to a long period OF struggle
The task of defeating japan alone is
not an easy one because OF the distances
involved and because Of the fact that
the Japanese right now are at the peak
of their strength while this country is
only making up its mind to develop Its
own capacity The task Of defeating
Japan's ally. Hitler, is even greater be-
cause Hitler has land and air power
which the United States lacks.
This country's Army and Navy strate-
gists figure that even with an immense
effort, started now, it is going to be mid
1s43 before the United States is ready to