Evening star., 1941-02-08

the tional
Capital turns to David Lawrence
to the possibilities of events over
whether Britain can be invaded this
spring. Actually the emphasis is
turning toward another possibility
suppose Britain holds out stanch-
ly and the German people begin to
wonder what is in store for them
in 1912
The stories of German invincibil-
ity have been so widely told and
they are being repeated before con-
eressional committees so frequently
by witnesses favoring the defeat of
the lease-lend bill that the other
possibility-a sudden collapse inside
Germany-gets relatively little at
tention
But so far AS planning for the
ecoonmic future Of the United States
is concerned the most penetrating
event that could happen would be
the breakdown of Nazi Germany.
It would be quite contrary to the
effect of a NaZi invasion of Britain.
Even if the Nazis overwhelmed the
British the United States would
keep on making weapons and build
ing airplanes for defense, but if the
NaZ regime is overthrown or dis
integrates the American people
would be likely to demand a cessa-
ton of armament building.
Defense BoIsters Economy.
Such contingency would mean
repercussions of far-reaching in
tenstty because the whole economic
system today is buttressed by spend
ing for defene purposes and if the
NaZis are beaten 1t would seem
superfuous to keep on spending for
war preparations America. to be
sure. has nothing to fear from a
British victory.
Though there is no basis at pres
ent on which to predicate predic-
ton Of German defeat, it is realized
that by the end of the summer of
194l, If the British hold out, the
disappointment in Germany will be
profound. Herr Hitler has been
promising complete victory in
short time. First he expected TO be
in London in August and then he
shifted to September and now he is
letting it be known through the
controlled press that American aid
cannot possibly reach Britain in
time, for the Nazis expect to van
quish the British before the end
of 1941.
1t is well known that American
aid in substantial quantities will be
flowing across the ocean early in
1912. This fact Is squirting the Brit
ish to make the supreme effort in
defense. The British morale is su-
perb. But what of the German mo-
rale as the Royal Air Force in
creases its strength and Britain in
creases its raids from Mediter-
ranean bases, or as trouble begins
to brew inside France. Holland,
Belgium, Norway and Czecho-Slo-
vakla? AS soon as it becomes ap-
parent TO these conquered peoples
that England is getting the upper
hand in the air and maintains her
sea power intact, the malcontents
Viii grow bolder. Unquestionably,
TIE Vichy government is thorn in
tie side of Hitler right now, as is
4so the French force under Gen.
Teygand in Africa.
Britain Organizes Offensive.
kGermany's strength is purposely
portrayed by the Nazi propagandists
dk unbeatable, but only few
tonths ago it looked as if the Brit
Nh Empire had lost out in Africa
And as if Greece were going to be
puShover. Little by little the British
Empire has been organized for Of
fensive As we'll as defensive war and
with American help in money and
materials, why should the British
not resist to the utmost?
There are frequent reports, on the
other hand, that if air bombing ever
penetrates Germany to the extent
that it has Britain, discomfort Will
be born in Central Europe which
will release internal forces that can
not but force the making of peace.
Once Hitlerism is brought down,
there is little doubt here that
negotiated peace-but, of a far diff
ferent kind than is connoted by the
use of the term today with Hitler
still in poWer-Will come to Europe.
Meanwhile, the administration
has begun to plan for domestic op-
erations to take up the slack in the
event that defense spending has to
be curtailed, Not only are projects
for public works being drafted, but
plans TO enlarge our foreign trade
are being studied. Obviously Europe
will need huge import of housing
materials to reconstruct her dam
aged areas, and she will need raw
materials long excluded by the
blockade. American financial aid
for reconstruction progress abroad
probably will be placed then on a
commercial rather than a defense
basis-but 1t is interesting to report
that the prospect of a German COL
lapse is envisaged here in the Ma
tlonal Capital, maybe in 1941, but
more likely in 1912. Broadly speak
ing, a Spendand-lend bill for the
postwar epoch is in the making.