Evening star., 1941-05-04

The crucial test of Dictator Joseph
Stains theory that Soviet Russia can
win the European war "by default" ap-
pears imminent now that the German
Army, flushed with victory IN the
Balkans, once more is turning its eyes
eastward.
Indeed, the next few months probably
will tell whether the Red leader of Mos
COW will go down in history as one Of
the most astute politicians of his time,
or, like Benito Mussolini as a mere
"yes man" to more powerful colleague
in Berlin. Nor can the possibility be
ruled out that as the German military
campaign unfolds in the east, Stain
may vanish entirely from the post of
power that he has held for decade and
a half.
This forecast, radical as it may seem,
is based upon the conclusions of Wash
ington officials best acquainted with
both Soviet and German policy.
Berlin seems determined now upon
a sweeping campaign to gain control
of the Near East and the entire Medi-
terranean basin. And authorities here
hold that such giant military move
ment cannot be undertaken by the Reich
wheat and oil far in excess of its pres
ent boards or any that can be garnered
readily in the Balkans. The grain of
the Ukraine and the oil of the Baku
fields are the largest and most access
sible stocks.
Nazis Want Supplies.
Whether Germany can make salts
factory arrangements for supplies of
Russian oil and wheat far in excess
of what it has received in the past
without military invasion of the Soviet
Union is moot question. Russia's past
performance in supplying Germany
with these necessities has been short
of what Berlin was led to expect.
But German economic and military
leaders are said to feel that the Reich
must have some control over the move
ment of Russian oil and wheat before
it can risk campaign in the Near
East. This may mean capitulation by
Moscow-or it may mean war.
Russias present dilemma can be
understood best against the background
of its fundamental and long-term policy
toward the present European war-and
that in Asia as we'll
Stalin's policy, or the Communist
party line" (the two being identicaD
has seemed to Western observers TO
waver like pennant in gale. One
day Stair seems to be veering to the
democratic side, aszwhen he encouraged
a long series of friendly talks with Sir
Stafford Cripps, the British Ambassador,
or when he recently rebuked Germany
for its invasion of Yugoslavia. The next
day he extends a friendly hand to the
axis powers. Witness the recent nom
aggression treaty with Japan. But
underneath these surface variations,
Moscow's basic policy has been fixed
and undertaking.
Soviet Waits Its Turn.
Essentially, it is based upon the
doctrine of "capitalistic contradictions" :"
Capitalistic society, the Communists say
is bound to fall because it is house
divided against itself In the individual
states, there is conflict between
capitalists and workers. In the larger
community of nations, there is strife,
inherent in the capitalistic system, over
trade arc lush areas of raw materials.
From this belief flows Comintern (Which
is to say Russian) policy: Do everything
possible to emphasize these contradic-
tions. Encourage war between others
at every turn. In the end, when
capitalistic society has destroyed itself,
Soviet Russia, fresh and strong, will
establish a Soviet system upon the
ruins.
The Soviet attitude toward the
capitalistic nations is we'll summed up
in the following excerpt from the pro-
gram adopted by the Sixth World Con-
gress of the Communist International:
THE principal and fundamental line
to be followed must be the line
of establishing the widest possible con-
tact with foreign countries-Within
limits determined by their usefulness to
the u. S. S. R."