Evening star., 1941-07-03
and New War Front
Transfer Seen os Anticipating German Drive
Through Caucasus on Middle East

objects. The attack on Russia opens
a whole new set of strategical posi-
bilities.
A Possible German Plan.
Let us suppose that the Germans
do no more than succeed in driving
the main Russian armies back be-
hind the Volga. They may then
proceed into the Caucasian region
by direct approach, though with
lengthening and more precarious
lines of communication. A mighty
barrier rises in their path-the
Caucasus Mountains. There are but
two or three practicable passes.
These, If stoutly defended by the
Russians, might hold the Germans
up for months; certainly until
spring. But the Russians will need
supplies, munitions, airplanes, per-
haps the services of a military mis-
sion well versed in German methods.
They cannot depend on Turkey,
for the Germans can bring direct
pressure to bear on Turkey, and
We have already seen with what
result. They cannot depend on
Iran, for Iran is a weak state. But
suppose Iran were to become, as it
might be, military outpost of
India? Suppose, as we hear from
Ankara sources, that in effect the
Northwest frontier of India were
to be moved from its present Ioca-
ton to Northwest Iran?
A Nightmare, Even for Nazis.
Suppose, to put it plainly, that
strong British support were to be
provided for the defense of the
Caucasian passes, to deny Russian
Oil to the Germans, to protect the
British hold on the Middle East,
to snatch from Hitler's grasp the
chief fruit of his Russian drive and
leave him with one other vast ter
rltory to police, another long weary
line OF communications. another
distant war OF attrition upon which
to waste his substance?
He must then try another out
| thanking movement. He must force
| the Volga, and send his panzer
divisions around the north OF the
Caspian Sea into the Caspian
steppes, and so down against the
Northeast frontier of Iran,
1t is a long journey, and one
whose logistics would be a night
mare even to a German staff, and
one in which the enemy to be en-
countered would be the magnifi-
Gently equipped army of India, plus
the Russian Turkestan divisions
always distinguished in Russian
military annals.
A Far-Flung Conception.
This is a far-fiung strategicsl con-
| ceptlon; but if We assume the pos
| sibility of German attack on the
Caucasian region, as We must, We
AiiNAot oASO 6isooblllC q BLUSH
to defend that region. Its defense
is the defense of the Middle East
and of India, as we'll as, in the
larger view, the denial to Germany
| of Oil supplies. the maintenance of
the chief British weapon, the block
ade.
Such a plan, as We have seen,
would cover the whole long front
from the HimaIyas to the frontier
of Libya. 1t would include the close
coordination of military and po-
litical forces of the governments of
AfghaniStan, Iran and Iraq as
more or less willing allies of Great
Britain, of f1uctuating relations with
Turkey, of Anglo-RuSsian cooper
alton.
1t would include the cooperation
in the military field of air forces
based on areas as far apart as Mersa
Matruh and Quetta; of fleets on the
Mediterranean, Black and Caspian
Seas; or armies on three or four
fronts, perhaps simultaneously ac-
tive.
Defense Based on India.
And it would necessarily be based
on and directed from India. India
would be the principal source of its
immediate strength and the cencral
area from which strategic reserves
could be sent forward to meet any
threat coming down from the north
1t would provide sufficient depth for
defense and for proper disposition
of reserves and control of commu-
nications. 1t would also provide the
resources, human and otherwise, for
the maintenance of the political po-
sition so essential to military success
If there is any soldier in the Brit
ish Army who has demonstrated his
ability to deal with situation of
this complexity, it is Sir Archibald P.
| Wavell. If the German threat tC