Evening star., 1941-12-14
RUSSIA IN STRATEGIC SPOT
Soviet Union Is Threat to Jupon
Bv Felix Morley.


ergetically exploited by the conqueror for
his own benefit is also general knowl-
eoge. There is however little wide
spread information as to what remains
available to support continued Russian
resistance, both during and after the
present winter.
Yet the answer to that question is
likely to determine whether or not Russia
can continue to keep Germany and
Japan apart. Consequently it has bear
ing of enormous significance on the out
come of the war in which the United
States is now engaged.
Russias War Potential"
Fortunately, through the enterprise Of
the American Council of the Institute of
Pacific Relations, a scientific, compre-
hensive and reliable estimate of "Asiatic
Russia's War Potential" is now available.
The compiler is Andrew Grajdanzev, a
Russian economist of high repute. His
analysis, published in the mid November
issue of the Far Eastern Survey" of the
Institute of Pacific Relations, was, Of
course, made before the start of hostil-
tiles between Japan and the United
States. 1t is not for that reason any the
less interesting and important.
Mr.. GrajdanZev's analysis is conserv-
ative, since it examines the war potential
which would be left to Russia if that
country should lose Moscow, Leningrad,
the entire Donets Basin nov largely
evacuated by the Germans) and all the
as yet uninvaded territory north of the
Caucasus Mountains and west of the
Volga River. But it follows that if his
conclusions are optimistic for the hinter-
land which he regards as immune from
occupation, they are much more so for
the actual situation now that the Ger
man tide of conquest seems to be re-
ceding.
Within the part of Russia now re-
garded as absolutely secure from any
immediate attack Mr.. Grajdanzev esti-
mates population, including refugees,
of around 9O0O00O0. This area, he says,
is by itself capable of supplying most
of the essentials for military effort and
civilian livelihood" He adds, however,
that there are "a few important defici-
encies which must be supplied from
abroad if Russias potential capacity as
an ally Of the democracies is to be real.
lied to the full
Production Possibilities.
In agricultural resources, which this
economist rightly regards as the most
basic factor for protracted Russian re-
sistance, the area under survey is found
to be more than self-suficient. It con-
tains about half the cultivated acreage
and more than half the livestock of all
Russia.
In mineral wealth the picture is even
more favorable. All of the Russian Oil
production is in territory as yet un-
invaded and even if the Germans should
eventually capture the area north of the
Caucasus, less than II per cent of this
production would be in their hands
More than sufficient iron ore and non-
ferrous metals, excepting only aluminium,
is now in full production in the immune
area. The same applies to coal, while
since 1888 the development of heavy in
dustry, including chemicals, beyond the
Urals has been phenomenal. Close to
one-third Of all the electrical power gen.
Grated in the Soviet Union Is also said
to be similarly safe from external in
reference.
Nevertheless 1t is easy to understand
why Russia, no less than Japan, is "at
the present moment'-to quote the
words used by Ambassador Litvinofi in
presenting his credentials to President
Roosevelt-strictly maintaining the neu-
trality agreement concluded between
Moscow and Toxic last spring. Neither
government desires to assume the risks
involved in starting an additional war.
If Russia is to be counted on to bring
pressure on Japan, now aligned as
deadly and hard-hitting enemy of the
United States it will be necessary first
10 strengthen the Soviet Republic until
1t feels impervious to further German
aggression Thus, in struggle as unified
as is the present worldwide disaster,
the defense of the Philippines becomes
one aspect of the defense Of Moscow, and
vice versa.
And for that reason q coldly factual
appraisal of cereal production in Ka-
as given by Mr.. Grajdanzev.
must be regarded as q part Of the now
rapidly widening horizon Of necessary
for Americans.
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