Evening star., 1941-08-30
Typhoon Calm?

In those intense circular storms
which we know as hurricanes and
the Far East calls typhoons, the first
onrush of wind and rain may be
followed by a sudden calm. That
does not mean that the typhoon is
over. On the contrary, 1t means
that one is in the very center or eye
of the storm, and that this brief,
deceptive lull soon will be followed
by worse to come.
There may be parallel between
this phenomenon of nature and the
surprising turn in Japanese-Ameri-
can relations caused by the personal
message of Premier Kohoye to Presi-
dent Roosevelt and the lengthy con-
ference which ensued between the
President, Secretary of State Hull,
and japanese Ambassador Nomura.
What Premier konoye said in his
letter and what the august confereeS
discussed are diplomatic secrets. But,
despite a natural tendency toward
WiShful thinking, the weight of evi-
dence suggests that the Japanese
Prime Minister'S unusual procedure
is last, and almost desperate, effort
to avert tragic climax of Far
Eastern crisis which has reached
frankly dangerous stage. "a
No one need doubt Premier Ko-
noye's intense eagerness to avert a
clash with America. This princely
ariStocrat and several members of
his cabinet presumably are prepared
to make certain concessions in order
to obtain a compromise agreement
with the United States. But his bar
gaining powers are strictly limited by
the uncompromiSing views of the
army and other extremist groups in
Japan. Furthermore, neither Amer
lea nor Britain seems to be inclined
to make a patchwork 'appeasement"
compromise. In his recent speech,
Prime Minister Churchill ranged
Britain squarely behind the United
States in the Far East, while Secre-
tary Hull has proclaimed Americas
Oriental policy as resting on certain
far-reaching principles with which
Japan must comply before any genu-
inc settlement of outstanding differ
ences is possible. Neither of those
official announcements shuts the
door to a real understanding, but
they both make it plain that Japan
would have to renounce the course
of imperialiStic aggression which she
has pursued for years.
Now there is scant evidence that
even relative moderates like Prince
Konoye, still less the ambitious army
chiefs, are ready to scrap the far
reaching program for the domina-
tion Of the Far East, which already
has cost Japan so grievously in blood
and treasure, and for which the en-
tire resources of the Island Empire
are now fully modified. Such a
diplomatic surrender would spell the
personal ruin of virtually all Japan's
present leaders. Indeed, the internal
repercussions might be so serious as
TO involve a revolutionary upheaval
with incalculable consequences. The
present regime in Japan has gone so
far along the perilous path toward
its cherished new order" in the Far
East that it is hard to see how it can
beat retreat. Probably it must
either march on, even at the risk of
disastrous war, or give way to
wholly different set of leaders under
most perilous domestic circum-
stances. There is no proof that the
present regime intends to abdicate,
and there is good reason to believe
that if Prince Konoye and his rela-
lively moderate colleagues tried to
do this the army and associated
groups would step in and impose a
full-fiedged military dictatorship.
Under these circumstances, the
konoye letter looks like either a
proposal to gain certain economic
concessions or move to gain time
Japan is anxiously watching the
general course of the war, especially
the Russo-German death grapple,
awaiting the right moment before
taking an irreparable step. But the
minds of Japans present leaders
seem bent on further aggression.
There is no evidence that they con-
template the sort of peace settlement
which the English-speaking powers
oy,L roo,,iro