Evening star., 1941-09-14
About Shooting War Might
Prove Less Costly in Long Run
NonBeligerency Status Already Has Cost U. S.
Huge Sums and Would Mean Billions
More, Without Decision.
By Constantine Broyn.

Germany and her associates can control
Europe and obtain enough food and vital
military supplies to resist Britain and
Russia indefinitely. But an offensive war
on the part of the Allies would be costly
and difficult. 1t may last twice as long as
the war has already lasted
And all this time the arsenal and
treasury of the fighting Allies will be in
the United States. We would have to
provide them with arms and ammunition
and with money and food In the mean
time We cannot afford to slacken the pace
of our own national defense. Nobody in
Washington dares compute how much
such state of things would cost the
American people. And it is not question
OF hard cash only. The administration is
worried over the irreparable economic
dislocation continuation of the war would
mean, and when the efforts of the entire
Nation would be directed toward pro-
duction of destructive machinery.
Partial Effort.
Our present wartime effort-that is to
say the difference between peacetime
economy and war Efforts only IS per
cent. The German effort during the last
four years is estimated at between rs and
85 per cent, while that of the British since
September, 1910, is between IS and rs
per cent. Last year our war effort COM
puted statiStically was only 20 per cent.
The longer the war lasts the greater the
effort will be and it is predicted that if
we don't engage in actual warfare by
l945 we will have reached an 80 per cent
effort. That is to say, that if in 1941 we
spent only $20,00O,000 900 for national
defense and all that it implies, in 1945
we may have to spend $4,000 900 900 out
of prospective 100000 100000 national
income.
A war which might give the Axis the
coup de grace might cost us many billions,
but 1t will certainly not reach the I'M
believably high figure that non-bellig-
erency is bound to cost us.
The American people have been COM
PEELED so far to dig down in their pockets
for $4,000 900 ,OOO
This is the figure appropriated, au-
thorized or recommended for national
defense by the Congress of the United
States for the fiscal years of 1912.
This shakespeare sum is only tentative
and is based on present preparedness
needs Should we find ourselves en-
and June, 1912, it will have to be revised
upward. How much, nobody knows.
Help for Russia.
Until the mission under w. Averell
Hartman returns from Moscow we
will not know how large a drawing ac-
count the Soviets viii need. But taking
their losses into consideration and the
prospects of a heavy campaign-which
it is hoped will be an offensive-against
the Reich next spring, it is conservatively
estimated that s2,5oO, 900 900 will be the
minimum. Not included in this general
estimate is the increasingly large finan-
cial help We must give our sister republics
in Latin America-Which must be kept
as going concerns since they have de-
cided to throw in their lot with the
United States.
Our national debt, according to the
Treasury Department, on September 4
amounted to 7O,249, ,646. Our national
income for 1941 is estimated at approx
mately $4,000 100000 1t is not difficult
to deduce what the folly of Hitler's am
bition means to the present generation or
what it will mean to future generations if
this war continues much longer and
Hitler is not unsaddled.
According to military and naval OBJ
servers who have recently returned from
the beleaguered British Isles and who re-
ported that the British took the war
lightly until Nazi bombers began to
spread devastation, the slower the effort
the greater was the expense.
Until September year ago some lead
ing Britons and a section of the upper
middle class in England are said to have
believed that even Hitler himself would
see the folly of destructive total war
and would accept an honorable peace.
Despite repeated denials, it is said in re-
(See BROWN, Page D-3J