Evening star., 1941-12-11
Of Stars, Men
And Atoms
Notebook Of Science Progress
In Laboratory, Field
And Study
Bu Thomas r. Henry.

| BIZ Thomas r. Henry.
The influenza situation this fall, as
revealed by the latest statistics gathered
by the United States Public Health
Service, is the most curious on record.
This is a crucial time when the rate
should rise in any normal year for the
country as a whole. 1t is rising at the
rate OF hundred or more cases week
and there are more than double as many
reported as at the same time last year.
But approximately half of all the cases
| still, as was the situation in early autumn,
are confined to the single State Of Texas
| and primarily to the civilian population.
The great concentrations Of troops in
that State apparently have not affected
| the rate at ALL Very few cases have
been reported from Army camps.
The sicknesses to date have been rela-
lively mild At any time. the Govern
ment doctors have expected, influenza
would break across the Texas borders
but this has not happened.
There have been dire predictions of an
epidemic comparable to 1918-l9 These
are based on what the Public Health
physicians believe to be false aSsump-
tion-that flu in the United States runs
in approximately 20-year- cycles. They
are also based on the fear that the
Texas epidemic is holdover from that
which gripped the State early last win
ter and that the virus has gained in
virulence instead of burning out" as
has happened with other recent epi-
denies.
Week after week the Texas rate jumps.
For the past week, with three States
not reporting, there were 2,338 cases in
the entire United States. Texas supplied
1926 of them. The week before the Lone
Star State accounted for 1,085 cases out
of 2,372. The Northern States were al
most entirely free. Only Oklahoma,
South Carolina, Virginia and Arkansas
reported more than 100 cases.
The reports. admittedly, are far from
complete and are relied on only to re-
veal trends. Influenza is difficult to
diagnose and many physicians will not
report mild cases. They always are justi-
fed, for only laboratory tests would
establish a bad cold accompanied by
| fever as actually FLU"
The Public Health Service is making
no predictions. Says Dr.. James p Leake,
Public Health Service epidemiologist:
Influenza is not like measles, epi-
denies of which can be predicted with
| reasonable assurance. There are too
many variables. At present I see no rea-
son for predicting more flu than usual
| this winter"
A series of severity OF climate yard
sticks" is being issued by the United
| States Weather Bureau.
Based on records in some cases cover
ing more than rs years, these maps
prepared by DR.. j. B. Kincer, chief OF
the Division of CAmatology, show the
| expectancy OF days with minimum tenn
perature at freezing or lower during
the normal temperature recession from
fall to midwinter.
For an average fall day when the
minimum temperature drops below
freezing in the early morning, Mr. Kincer
points out, there is usually a rather
rapid warming up during the forenoon
with afternoon readings considerably
above freezing. AS the season advances,
however, colder days during which the
thermometer remains continually below
the freezing point become more frequent
in much of the United States. The
number of these days is an index Of
climate severity by which different
areas can be compared.
Take, for instance, the probability
that November l will be continuously
below freezing. Mr.. Kincer's maps show
that this can be expected one year in
10 in south Central Minnesota and North
Central South Dakota. South Of the Gen.
trail Ohio Valley the expectancy is less
than l in 25
On September Is, Mr.. Kincer points
out, freezing weather may be expected
to occur / year in 10 in a considerable
Northern Rocky Mountain area, the in
terror of the Northeast. and locally In
the extreme Central-Northern portion Of
the country. On october Is there will
be freezing temperatures l year in 10
as far south as West Virginia in the
mountain sections of the East and in
the Midwest to Southeastern Iowa and
Central Oklahoma. The November IS
line runs well into the Southern States,
to Central Georgia and Alabama, and
North Central Texas. A month later the
Gulf districts are approached.
On January Is, chosen as a typical
| nlidwinter day, freezing temperatures
may be expected south Of Central Ten
nessee in less than half the years. BY
mid-October freezing temperatures may
be expected on more than 40 per cent
of the days in the Northern and North
western Great Plains
Eventually Mr.. Kincer expects to have
the entire country mapped for typical
| days through the fall and winter. This,
he believes, will provide householders
and such concerns as fuel and power
companies hitherto unavailable kind Of
| data on which to base their calcula-
| tions. It also will settle many weather
arguments.
In the past communities have boasted
of average temperatures" These. Mr.
Kincer holds, may have little practical
meaning unless one knows the varia-
tions to which they are subject from
day to daY
|