Evening star., 1941-10-16
Nuzi Rail Thrusts PeriIous
Eliot Sees Effort to Separate Soviet Armies,
Thus Reducing or Destroying Fighting Power

damage on Marshal T1mOShenkO'S
central armies as to make anything
like Russian collapse an imminent
probability. 1t still looks as though
they will fall short Of the knock -out
blow which this great offensive on
the central front was unquestionably
intended to deliver. But the ca
pacity of the German Army for
sustained offensive action has so
frequently confounded all sober CAL
culation, that one hesitates to draw
conclusions which may prove pre-
mature.
May Shift to South.
1t does, however seem reasonably
certain that If the Germans are now
prevented from taking Moscow and
from inf1icting major disaster on
Marshal Timoshenko, they will not
for some time be able to undertake
another offensive on the present
scale in Northern or Central Russia
The weather will be increasingly
against them and it is difficult to
see where they can get sufficient
troops for another big push within
the immediate future. If the CEN
tral drive fails Of its object, 1t is
probable the Germans will again
shift their attention to the south
and put further weight behind their
drives toward Kharkov and Rostov.
Should this be the case, the oues-
ton of the naval command of the
Black Sea will become of primary
importance.
Whether the operations follow
these general lines or whether the
Russians are compelled to fall back
agaln-perhaps to the line of the
Volga River-the importance of the
Anglo-RuSsian preparations for the
defense Of the Caucasus can hardly
be oVer-emphasiZed Indeed, the
greater the degree of German sue
cess IN European Russia, the more
important the holding OF the Cau-
casus becomes.
Even if German victories were to
bring about complete military COL
lapse in European Russia. 1t is still
quite possible that the Russian
troops in the Caucasus might con-
tlnue to cooperate with the British
in the defense of that area and that
the Russian Black Sea fleet might
continue TO operate from Caucasian
ports. Oil could still be sent, though
in diminished quantities, to any
Russian forces operating east of the
Volga, while it would be impossible
for the Germans to replenish their
diminishing oil reserves unless they
were able to capture the Grozeni oil
fields before the Russian sabotage
squads had done their work.
Ukrain Factories Important.
The loss of the heavy industry Of
the Eastern Ukraine will, however,
be severe blow 10 the Russians
If II occurs. 1t is improbable that
the Ural industrial area and the
industries centered around Moscow
can supply the Russian Army on a
scale sufficient to enable them to
continue TO put forth their present
volume of effort. The loss of Khar-
hov and Rostov would, therefore,
signalize the need for far more
intensive effort on the part of Brit
ain and America. not only to in
crease their deliveries of war mate
rials to the Russians, but to improve
and expand the capacity of the
long and difficult lines Of communi-
cations over which these supplies
must move We should not indulge
ourselves in the illusion that our
best efforts can make any serious
difference in the Russian supply
situation as far as the operations
now in rorOQreSs ore concerned W.