Evening star., 1941-07-28
Advocates Decrease
Of Birth Rute
Population Student Argues
Thot Normal Expansion
Is Sufficient

To the Editor of The Star:
We have read with a great deal
of interest in The Star for July 16 that
Professor earle C. Zimmerman of Har-
ward has called upon patriotic Ameri-
cans to increase the birth rate and
recommended an average of four chill
dren per family.
Professor Zimmermans recommended
tion sounds like constructive and
commendable program, but it is un-
Willingly one of the most dangerous
that could be suggested. 1t is dangerous
to our economic well-being, to our ma
tional health and to our democratic
institutions If you will bear with me a
moment 1 shall attempt to prove these
conclusions.
The most trustworthy forecast of fu-
ture population growth for the United
States, according to the National Re-
sources Committee. the Census Bureau,
the Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. and
practically all students of population,
is the Scripps Foundation estimate of
an increase of 100000 during the
next forty years.
1t is interesting to note that the
Scripps estimate assumes that the birth
rate will decrease Is per cent by 1880.
In other words, even If the, birth rate
decreases one-fourth the total popula-
ton will increase some 20,0000 900 or to
about 5000, 900. This does not count
foreign immigration which even at the
present relatively low rate would boost
the population another five million to
158 000,0 900 by 1890 tSee: Our National
Resources, National Resources Planning
Board, 1910, p. 81.
According to DR.. Harriet Elliott of
the National Defense Advisory Commis-
sion there are now As 0000 900 people in
this country living at a level below the
requirements for health and efficiency.
washington, September %, l940). If
this statement is even near the facts
it will be difficult enough healthfully to
support an additional 25,OO000O people.
And this increase, it should be remem-
bered, assumes a decrease in the birth
rate of about 25 per cent. Yet Professor
Zimmerman would have US increase the
birth rate about 25 per cent.
We are not in a position at the pres
ent time to say with accuracy how far
the population would increase with an
average family of four children over
a period of years. But it would be con-
Servative to say that the four child
family if continued would increase the
population 100, 900 during the next
! hundred years and the increase would
grow larger year after year until the
population reached fantastic heights,
| China.
1t would seem sane and logical that,
before urging an increase in the birth
rate, to find some means of supporting
healthfully the population We already
have. not to mention the 25,OOO.O0O we
may have in the near future even with
decrease of Is per cent in the birth
rate.
There is any amount of evidence TO
prove that this country does not need
a larger total population than the pres
ent total of 132000000. In fact, the
evidence indicates that it would be to
the best interests of the general well
fare if our population was somewhat
smaller than it is.
IF this country could choose between
having a stationary population of
131 900 900 (our present totaD or 150,-
100000 or 100000 0O0," says Professor
P K Whelpton, Of the Scripps Founda-
the Hoover and Roosevelt administra-
tionS, 1T can be shown quite conclu-
sively that the smaller number would
be best from an economic point of
view (Eugenical News, September,
1889, p. 49,.
To support the population of this
country at the standard of living which
the Brookings Institution says would
seem a reasonable minimum aim of our
national economy" We would have to
have IAN increase in the production of
all kinds of consumers goods and serv-
ices by something like 10 to 80 per cent"
| (Americas Capacity to Consume, p.
124.
From the scientific and humanitarian
evidence available it appears We should
aim at a decrease in the birth rate of
about Is per cent during the next forty
wears, and that one of the most danger
Gus policies to follow would be to in
crease the birth rate to an average of
four children per family.
If we decrease the birth rate about
one-fourth we shall still increase the
population about 10000 ,0O0 With such
| a decrease in the birth rate production
capacity as far as age composition is
concerned would increase per cent per
person in 1880, and we shall have some
! five million more potential soldiers than
We had during the first World War.
On the other hand, if we increase
the birth rate as Professor Zimmerman
suggests we shall be following in the
| footsteps of China, India, and other
countries where the standard of living
is miserably low. And it should not be
| forgotten that the faster and larger
we increase the population, the faster
and larger we shall have to increase
! it in the future to keep our age groups
| in order.
Notwithstanding the evidence which
indicates that our population has in
creased too rapidly in the past, the
| United States has the rare opportunity
| to taper off it's population growth slowly
and stabilize the total population around
$50. 5000. Even that number is larger