Evening star., 1941-02-16

WiShful thinking should not blind
us to the stern reality that, in the
diplomatic struggle being Waged be-
tween Germany and Britain in the
Balkans, German diplomacy seems
to be winning all along the line.
That is the only reasonable interpre-
tation which can be given to the
sensational events of the past three
days.
Even the British admit that Ru-
mania and Bulgaria are hopeleSSly
in the axis tolls. Bulgaria'S capitu-
lation to German demands implies
that Stain has given Hitler the green
light in the Balkans Indeed, there
is considerable evidence that Soviet
Russia and the Third Reich have
arrived at a secret understanding
which may go far beyond the Bal
kanS to include the Middle and Far
German agreement be restricted to
the Balkan area, that alone preSum-
ably will restrain Turkey from mill
tary action when Germany occupies
Bulgaria. Despite the comments of
pro-British newspapers in Turkey,
the evidence, notably the release of
large oil shipments from Rumania to
Turkey, points toward Turkish i'm
mobility. Rumania's German mas
terS presumably would never agree to
the oil shipments unless they were
pretty sure that Turkey would not
move.
All this, however, is merely the
background against which one should
evaluate the visit of YugoSlavia's
leading statesmen to Hitler at Berch-
tesgaden. The very fact that Pre-
mier Cvetkovitch and Foreign Min
ister Cincar- -Markovitch went to see
the Fuehrer and conferred with him
at length is a bad sign. Although
officially nothing has as yet been
disclosed, Semiofficial utterances both
in Berlin and in Belgrade intimate
that an amicable understanding was
reached, which, at the very least,
assures the continuance of Yugo-
slavia neutrality, and which may
mean that Yugoslavia will hence
forth be tacitly on the axis side.
In either case Britain will have
failed in her strenuous efforts to
build up Near Eastern front. Yugo-
slavia is the most powerful Balkan
state, with an excellent army. But
this army is not we'll equipped and
Yugoslavia is nipped between the
axis powers. Furthermore, now that
Italian claims in the Balkans have
been Debated, Germany can offer
Yugoslavia much, including the Greek
port of Salonika, which is Yugo-
Slavia'S natural commercial outlet to
the sea. Lastly, YugoSlavia is already
so enmeshed in Germany's economic
system that her economic life de-
pendS upon good relations with the
Reich
Just a week ago, in his memorable
address, Mr. Churchill put the issue
in nutshell when he stated: "One
of our difficulties is to convince some
of these neutral countries in Europe
that we are going to win. We think
it's astonishing that they should be
so dense as not to see it as clearly
as we do ourselves"
The ensuing week seems to have
indicated, however, that the Balkan
neutralS see no immediate prospect
that Germany's grip in Eastern Eu-
rope is going to be shaken. These
small and exposed countries can
not afford theological preferences.
Trained in a hard and cynical school,
their diplomats do not hesitate to
play with what they believe is the
winning side, and they tend to seek
safety for the moment even though
this may involve future contingent
perilS. Perhaps Britain's mounting
land and sea power in the Near East
may provide an answer which will
cause the neutralS to alter their pres
ent trend, but the omens are not
bright.