Evening star., 1941-12-28
Prosperous U. 5.
Forecast After
Grim Conflict
America Will Provide
World Leadership,
Observers Believe
By FRANK MacMILLEN,

That is the opinion of many busi-
ness observers who think that the
very logic of economic circumstance
is shaping America up as the indus
trial and banking capital of the
world.
AS the fateful year 1941 draws to
close there are many American
businessmen who are worried about
what the future holds, in markets,
profits, taxes, cost levels.
But a substantial body of shrewd
opinion exists among some of the
country's leading executives that
this war may mark Americas real
coming of age as economic head
quarters of the planet
These guesses, of course, are based
on the assumption of ultimate and
compelte victory in the world strug-
gle, for this country and its allies.
Listed as Victory Prizes.
Here are some of the things many
business planners are entering on
their books as basic certaintieS and
the sure prizes of victory:
l. America will be the only re-
naming major reservoir of capital,
its huge gold Store-at present about
s23 900, 900 000-and enormous other
liquid resources assuring its place
as the worlds banker.
2. 1t will emerge with the most
productive industrial machine the
world has ever seen.
3. Its technology, especially In
chemistry, metallurgy and electron-
les. but in many other fields, too,
will have made strides in a few
years that otherwise might have re-
quired decades.
Pointing up the inevitable but
heretofore undocumented conclusion
of our overwhelming banking superb
orlty was a study by Undersecre-
tary of the Treasury Daniel w. Bell,
reproduced in full for the first time
in the current issue of the Federal
Reserve Bulletin.
1t showed that Great Britain
even since our emergence after
World War No. l as a great banking
power, still our greatest rival in
hnance-by March of next year was
expected to possess only about a half
billion dollars in gold and dollar
resources, mostly securities in Amer
lcan concerns.
Other Centers Eliminated.
Bankers here had long since con-
cluded that such other world bank
ing centers as Berlin, Vienna. Rome
and Toxic, as a result of an eventual
Axis defeat. and the war drain on
capital in the meantime, would be
eliminated as important factors in
the world capital markets.
Amsterdam, long a center for
financing industry around the
world, these men suggested, prom
lsed to resume secondary role to
New York, as did even a revivifed
London.
On the production front the
United States already has supre-
macy in nearly every field, includ-
ing such materials as steel and
petroleum products in both of which
it produces more than the rest of
the world combined.
While war has distorted industrial
production indices, economists are
agreed that the physical guam
tlty of goods being produced in this
country now is by a considerable
margin the greatest in history.
What they envisage for the
future is some sort of a system for
keeping the plants now built. and
the many new ones which are on the
books, producing as fully as pos
sible in a postwar world in such a
way that the dominance of world
markets by American industry
would be assured.
The implications Of a greatly ex-
panded American production plant
operating full time in a world to
which peace has been restored are
enormous, economic observers here
agreed.
New Book Studied.
Considerable interest has been
displayed by some Of these men in
a recent book by Blair Moody,
Boom or Bust" which summarized
many of the things which are being
said in Washington, and among
management people here, about
what fully productive industry can
mean in the transition from war to
peace.
In his concluding paragraphs
Moody said:
Full employment would mean
more goods produced, much greater
aggregate wages and a higher gen.
eral standard Of living. 1t would
also, incidentally, mean higher
profits.
There is ample spirit, ingenuity
and courage to make the current
war boom the vehicle by which
America becomes a better place to
live in.
There are ways to revamp our
economy so that democratic cap
italism. far from being decadent and
'on the way out can be made to
yield as dividends a standard of
NV WlllIll tIlC pCOplC Vi llo
other nation would even dare
dream"
In such world the technologists.
the laboratory men and engineers
will play a part for which the de-
mands of war will have given them
an invaluable rehearsal, industrial
men here said.
Two top-fight industrialists, Al
fred P. Sloan, jr., of General Motors,
and David Sarnof of Radio Corp.
of America, have called attention
within the last few days to the
enormous technical advances which
would flow inevitably from the war.
Many others speak privately of
the astounding things going on in
the laboratories, most of which must
remain, to the general public, war
secrets" until peace and the resump-
ton of normal supplies and manu-
featuring reveal them in civilian
articles.