Evening star., 1941-08-03
Sees Jopon's Chance
of Victory Nil
BIZ OtUen L. Scott.

prODdDly WOulQ llIlQ Japan 10 DC SOHle-
thing of pushover in fight. The rea-
sons why are many, and these reasons
doubtless enter into the calculations of
the men in Japan who are deciding
whether or not to go to war with this
country.
1t is Japans misfortune to suffer
even more than the British are suffering
from the trends in modern warfare.
Those trends add immensely to the
problems of any people who seek to
build an island empire. They stem from
the development of the airplane and
from the demand that modern war
makes for the lavish use of natural
resources.
There was time, not so long ago,
when a nation-lacking resources at
home-could build big navy and then
use that navy to protect supply lines
extending thousands of miles away
from nome. The British did this and
managed for a great many years to
maintain their power. The japanese set
out to do the same thing in the Pacific
and have had quite a bit of success to
date. But the venture is increasingly
shaky.
Great Britain possesses a navy that is
far stronger than the japanese. She
possesses an industry that is incom-
parably more productive Of war mate
rails than Japan's. The British Empire
is an asset in industrial strength and
military strength, while Japan's is not to
any important extent. Yet, if it were
not for the aid of the industry and of
the Navy Of the United States, Great
Britain today would be in a very
bad way.
Japan has no United States on which
to depend. She is casting her lot with
Hitler who is over on the other side of
the world with troubles of his own. The
Japanese Navy is big and right now may
be bit bigger in numbers of ships in
the Pacific than the American Navy.
But that navy is not big enough to as
sure to Japan the immense volume Of
imported raw materials that would be
needed by her if she is to fight the
United States with any thought of
success.
The reasons why are very many. In
the first place, Japan must send her
ships thousands of miles away from
home to obtain even the most basic Of
war materials such as iron and oil and
copper and aluminium and wool. Japan's
"co-prosperity sphere" is a washout as
a supplier of anything more than food
stuffs. few fibers and little coal
In the next place, japanese industry
simply is not geared to war, even after
the fighting of recent years. There is
almost no machine tool industry. ia
pans steel industry is anything but i'm
pressive. She has an airplane industry
that turns out about $50 planes month,
copied after planes of Germany and Of
the United States.
In the third place, Japan is a setup
for blockade. Both Britain and the
United States possess naval and air
bases right in her front yard. The Jap
anese merchant marine is not large
enough to supply the islands without
help of Britain and American ships,
which would be withdrawn in war. That
merchant marine must travel over thou
sands of miles of ocean highway, which
the japanese Navy would find it phys
ically impossible to police. In travelling
it would be vulnerable to attack by the
American and British and Dutch naval
vessels which are operating in the
Pacific.
Furthermore, the japanese people are
war weary and Japanese industry is run
down at the heel. A war with the United
States and Britain probably would be
the last straw, if that war continued for
any length of time 1t would open the
way for air attack from bases in China,
in the Philippines and in Russia. Japan's
industry is highly concentrated in
small area and Is more vulnerable to
air attack than the industry of any
other nation that processes to be Of first
rank.
The airplane transforms the whole
Pacific picture by adding to Japan's
lem of defense of the Philippine Islands
and of the British and Dutch possessions
in the South Pacific.
Then why all of the effort on the part
of this country to appease Japan? The
answer Is found in the fact that the
Japanese do have a large number OF
warships that, at least temporarily, are
well stocked with ammunition. They do
have some airplanes and do have an
army. This gives them enough weapons
to create very sizable disturbance dur
ing the six months to one year that
would be required to strangle Japanese
industry by blockade
1t is President Roosevelt's desire to
avoid this disturbance, if possible, so
long as the output of American industry
is so sorely needed by the British.
fight with Japan would make it
necessary to divert airplanes that now
are going to the British Isles, to the
Philippines and to China and to other
Pacific areas This diversion would
hamper the British effort to ward off
Hitler's attacks and would hamper the
counterattack or Germany. Likewise,
a Pacific war would force diversion of
military equipment now going around
Africa to the British forces in Egypt. 1t
is desired to avoid any disturbance
while this more imperative task Is
taken care Of.
The only reason that Japan has been