Evening star., 1941-02-12
Balkan Tremors

Big developments impend in the
Balkans. OF that, there can be no
doubt. The frank warnings in
Churchill's speech have been swiftly
followed by formal breach of dip
lomatic relations with German-dom-
mated Rumania, and Anglo-Bulga-
rian relations are so tense that
similar action there may follow any
day. German diplomacy seems to
be equally active, though less vocal
AS Churchill remarked, the forward
tentacleS'' of the German military
power have already penetrated
Bulgaria with what we must suppose
is the acquiescence of the Bulgarian
government" Despite Sofas fiat
denial, it is pretty obvious that Bull
garia is in no position to oppose
German penetration. even if its gov
ernment so desired. Reports that
Russia has refused to veto German
moves southwark in the Balkans are
so well founded that they are pre-
Sumably correct.
If Russia has tacitly given Ger
many the green light, it not only
opens the way into Bulgaria but
makes Turkey extremely circumspect.
So far as man power Is concerned,
the Turkish Army is OF high quality,
but its equipment is meager and
largely OF German make 1t is there
fore doubtful whether Turkey will
fight unless directly menaced by a
German drive. And the collapse of.
the Italian armies in Libya has
ruined the prospect of giant pincer
movement by the axis, converging
simultaneously on Egypt and the
Suez Canal. Competent military ex-
perts are inclined to believe that a
German occupation of Bulgaria, and
even an attack on Eastern Greece
from this Bulgarian base, would be
what is known as an "offenSive-de
fenSive"-a Strategically limited op-
GRAFTON to ensure good defense line
in the Balkans against a possible
British counterthrust.
During the past six months, Brit
ain has been maSSing men and war
materials in the Eastern Mediter-
ranean, not so much from Britain
itself as from Australasia, India and
various parts Of British Africa. BY
now, this truly imperial army must
have reached formidable proper
tions, and it continues to gain in
strength and striking power with
every week that passes. Should Ital-
ian resistance in Libya and Ethiopia
be soon broken, this entire war ma
chine, allied with dominant sea
power, will be free for a major opera
ton anywhere in the Eastern Medi-
terranean And the German gov
ernments recent warning to Greece
not to permit large British debarka-
tions at Salonika reveals appre-
hension lest Britain repeat the his
tory of the last war, when an Allied
expeditionary force based on Sa-
lonika fought its way up the Vardar
Valley-the natural highroad through
the Balkans which every invader
from the south has taken.
The Balkan peninsula may thus
presently flame into major theater
of war. But, aside from air opera
tions, such a campaign is unlikely
until winter relaxes its grip. Until
we'll into April, the valleys will be
frosty mud, the mountains deep in
snow, and the broad Danube filled
with ice foes. Under such condi-
tions, large mechanical armies can
neither maneuver effectively nor
maintain their lines of communica-
ton. What we see today is preSum-
ably a diplomatic and strategic pro-
logue. The curtain call for the first
act in the Balkan war drama is prob
ably over a month away.