The Waterbury Democrat., 1941-08-05

An examination of the record ot
 most so-called experts on the Far
 Eastern situation will prove this
 easily. A year ago they began pre-
 dieting that the U. s. fleet would gC
 to Singapore, that war between the
 U. s. and Japan was inevitable, and
 that the Japanese were ready to seize the Dutch East Indies any 15 minutes. On the general theory that
 if you predict a thing long enough
 and hard enough it will come true
 under the law of averages, all these things may happen. But don't do without eating until they do, for there are any number of reasons,
 military as well as economic, that they aren't going to come of in- stanter.
 Whatever you think of the ad-
 ministration's policy or lack of policy
 toward the blind alley brawl in
 Europe, credit must be given where
 credit is due, and the policy with regard to the Far East and parti- cularly Japan has thus far been planned and executed with skill. The importance of the Orient in the in- ternational picture has not been overlooked, but the bait and the line played out to the Pacific big game fish has been well handled, beauti- fully timed and with just enough of the slack of appeasement so that fisherman Uncle Sam has not be- come fouled in his own line and dragged into the drink.
 Economically, the actual freezing of Japanese credits and the threat of embargoes on oil and silk have been good pressure to make Tokio stop and consider. Actual embargoes would do the Japanese more harm than sending the fleet to Singa- pore. J JAPANESE TIRED
 Military, Japan is rated the third most war-weary country in the world, Spain and Italy alone being ahead of her in that kind of despair. Furthermore, Japan is in the posi- tion of the big fish which swallowed the hook and can't spit it out.
 She has an army of less two mill lion-1 100000 under arms and an- other 100000 or so called up. She has the manpower for an army of four million, but can't get the arms or equipment for them. That is, she has 57 divisions under arms and the most she can raise is 66, instead of the potential 200.
 Information is perhaps none too accurate, but the best dope is that 10 divisions are in Manchukuo a. gainst the two red banner armies of the Soviet made up of 26 infan- try, 10 calvary and four mechanical divisions. Thirty seven Japanese divisions are occupied in nina, one is in Korea, one on Sakhalin Island, three or four in Hainan and French Tndo-China, and four or five at home. That's what the military ex- perts call extreme dispersion.
 Japenese mecnanized forces are as bad if not worse than even the American. Japanese air forces of approximately 36oO planes are most ly 1889 models, copies of German originals now obsolete, and 750 miles is still the effective range for bonn bers carrying bombs. From Saigon French Indo-C China, to Singapore is $40 miles and from Formosa or Can- ton to Manila is about the same. From Vladivostok to Tokio is 680 miles.
 A JOB FOR THE NAVY
 That would seem to leave it up to Japan's navy-and a right good navy, too-if Japan is to go places. She can, of course, ride of in all four directions. If she goes north ard runs into the Soviet, there is plenty of trouble ahead. She can go farther into China at about the same rate she has gone in the last four years.
 She can go south against the Malay peninsula and Singapore and encounter a great many worries. The occupation of Indo-C China can be considered as accomplished, ard Japan might even penetrate Siam, but Sinapore is something else again. Before Japan can tackle the Dutch East Indies. she must reduce Singa- pore, and 1t would take years.
 To the east lie the Philippines. They are within range, ard if Japan did not have her hands full in three other directions, they would be pie any time she wanted to help her. self. Engaged as the Japanese are on three other fronts, a full shoot ing war, requiring complete CO., ordination of sea, air and land forces, would keep the Japanese gen. tlemen very busy indeed for quite some time, sank you,- prease.
 So don't bet on war with Japan