The Waterbury Democrat., 1941-11-03
Politics
 in- Passing
City Clerk
By RAYMOND J. FITZPATRICK

AAAANV AWbSAs WNl iliNt hn ltlls portant bearing on the outcome oi tomorrow's city election-the size ol the Italian vote cast for Patrick M eerriello and the Republican ticket the amount of Republican defee. lions In usually rock ribbed G. o, P districts, and the number of ballots cast for the Independent Democratic acilet, Taking for granted that the bulk et the regular party vote stays ln line, 1t is these factors, principal ", that will decide
 T. Is our feeling that the cleo tion will be considerably closer than many people expect, A large majority of voters has shown little interest in the campaign, while many of those who have discussed the election have been unwilling to commit themselves, These are always dangerous signs fer party n power
 The Democrats, partly from choice and partly frem necessity, have waged an almost wholly de- Sensive campaign, As a natural re- 1ult the party ticket has not stir rsd up the enthusiasm such as comes from a campaign waged on a stay-on- the offensive basis,
 A landslide for Mayor Scully Is possible only If voters in Republican districts stay home in drives, Should such sections as Bunker Hill turn out their customary heavy major lties, c victory for MT, Perriello Is a distinct possibility. Should the cleo sion be close, the vote received by the Independent Democrats, how ever, small 1t is, will have much to dc with the result.
 Our guess is that the Democrats will get their usual base vote, plus some hundreds of normally Re- publican votes, to garner a total of about i7,0O0 votes. The Repub- licar vote, according to our estina' ates, will hit about l5,20o, with the Independent Democrats getting perhaps HOO,
 As can be seen, these calcula- tions are based on total vote ot 33,30o-an extremely light turnout In view of the record breaking reg istration. But 1t locks from here like a very light vote tomorrow. The figures above would give Mayor Scully the election by a plu- eality of 1900. Two years ago he won by 2,384 in an election in which ! Socialist ticket (not in the field .his year) polled over 4,O00 votes.
 Democratic leaders. in general, expect a Scully victory by about 45OO. They figure on a much heaV- fer vote than the writer. Republi- can strategists, on the other hand, believe seriously that they have chance to win by from 800 to l,OOo votes. A leading Independent Democrat says privately that he would be much surprised at vote of 1900 for his party, while we ex- pect that the Independents will reach less than two-thirds of that figure.
 We agree with the Democratic leaders that the heavier the vote the better it will be for them. In the event that the total vote is 37,000 or better, Mayor Scully should win by far more than his 2,384 margin of 1889.
 As far as individual candidates go, our expectation is that James P. McGrath, candidate for tax collector, will lead the Republican nominees for offices other than '--''"-. and that either Controller Thomas M. Conlon or City Treas L4er serge A. Belanger will lead the Democrats.
 Tn the board Of education con- tests, low man may be Harry c. Post (R), while the loser for the board of aldermen may be Peter DeCicco (R). Harold V. Boyce may upset his fellow Republican, Car mine Calo, for the board of tax re- view. The winning Republican selectman may be Walter Smet- hurst.
 Here's a summary of our fore cast. based on a light vote of 33,- 800 or whereabouts:
 Ecully-17,00
 Perriello-i5, 200. gp
 Wall-il00
 6cully Plurality-1, 300.