Imperial Valley press. (El Centro, Calif.) 1907-current, 1941-03-06

Won like to bet a few bucks on
b long shot now and then you
might care 10 take chance IN
support of the guess that there
wont be any war with Japan lor
either the British Or the United
States for some time to come. Your
ordinary horse sense should give
you the necessary CONVICTION 10
play this hunch.
Warlike preparations there VIII
be. Lots of them. With plenty Oh
shadow boxing, shouting, threaten
Irg. moving about of battleshlpS,
troops. guns, airplanes. building OF
new bases for submarines, naval
patrols. diplomatic feinting in OIL
fetal statements, Strengthening OF
all the Notifications from Singa-
pore to San Diego. Everything Lead
ing right up to open hostillties
But not the hostilitles.
All the preparedness for war IN
the Pacific, on the part OF both
the British and the United States,
is perhaps the best reason why
the actual fightin' won't come OIL.
Every move Japan makes toward
expansion to the south and east
has SO far been effectively check
mated by the whites, the Dutch
in the East Indies, Britain IN Ma
lava. Australia and New Zealand,
the United States in the Philip
Lines. Alaska, Guam and the othe"
American island possessions in the
Pacific, including Hawaii.
DIPLOMATS
MERE MEN
The best of observers in Wash
!ngton are of the opinion thai
the Japanese government itself
does not know what its program
in the Pacific is to be, any more
than the United States govern
ment knows what its program is
to be in. Europe.
Officially. we have stated that
our program is to stay out OF war
in Europe. but we don't know that
we're going to be able TO do 1t.
Officially. Japan has stated that
her program is to take over all
of. Oceania and the Orient, but
she doesn't know that she'll be able
to do it.
Both these doubts are based on
the seldom admitted but none the
less true confession the best Of
diplomats will make in confidence
they aren't superhumans, they
don't have all the information they
should have in making decisions
of policy. and plenty of things just
don't happen according TO Hoyle.
Japan's own uncertainty as to
her future is no greater than the
uncertainty of any other country
Britain. France, Germany Italy
or the United StatcS-aS TO where
it will be one year hence. There
arc, in Japan's case. additional
elements of uncertainty in plot
ting courses Of destiny. There are
the conflicting elements Of army,
navy foreign office and home fac
tions within the government.
Shortage of food, shortage of stra-
tegic materials, threats of economic
boycotts from the United States,
the necessity Of carrying on the
China campaign-all these add to
her difficulties.
SINGAPORE
NO PUSHOVER
But the greatest uncertainty Of
all is the situation with regard to
Germany's threatened invasion of
England. That is, from the Wash
ington point Of view, the key 10
unlock the secret of what happens
in the Balkans, in Africa, in the
Orient.
If Germany inyades England
and decisively defeats the British
at home, then anything can hap
pen and probably will. without
German occupation CT England,
the best guess is that Japan will
rot make an offensive move against
Britain or the United States or the
Netherlands East Indies.
Campaign against Singapore is
q tougher problem than most pee
pie realize. 1t is 1900 miles from
Toxic. Effective range of a fleet
is $500 miles. Along the route are
Hong Kong and Manila. Both are
vulnerable, but both would have to
be taken before Japan would have ;