Evening star., 1941-07-05
Warning to japan

WelleS firmly admoniShed Japan
not to undertake aggressive action in
the Far East. His yelled warning
came in the form of an answer to
press questions, when he stated that
he hoped JapanS attitude toward
the RuSso-German conflict would
not disturb the peace of the Pacific.
Mr.. WelleS clearly indicated that
the United States would use all it's
influence to avert an occurrence of
this kind.
This admonitory notice to Toxic
comes at highly opportune moment.
Ever since the sudden outbreak of
war between Soviet Russia and Ger
many, backed by the latters Euro
pean Axis partners, the Japanese
government has been in a state of
obvious confusion. Conference has
succeeded conference, wherein the
very bases of Japanese foreign policy
were re-eXamined and debated. 1t
has been officially announced that
decisions have been made, but what
they are has been kept a dark
secret. The official statement con-
tents itself with the cryptic remark
that they will be gradually trans
lated into action"
Japan'S dilemma is tWofold. In
the first place, assuming that the
aggressive foreign policy to which
the present government has hitherto
been committed is to be con-
tinued, whittier shall it be directed?
Ever since Japan joined the Berlin
Rome Axis year ago, Tokio'S for
ward" policy has been headed
southwark toward the Netherlands
Indies, Singapore and the Philip
pines. JapanS minimum contribu-
ton to the Axis has been the immo-
bilization of the American Fleet in
the Pacific, together with a similar
lmmobilization Of large British mill
tary and naval forces to guard
against a possible japanese chal-
lenge to the English-speaking
powers.
Germany's tremendous blitzkrieg
thrust into Western Russia has
opened up an alternative field of
action dear to many japanese minds.
This is the conquest of RuSSia'S
maritime provinces, especially the
great naval and air base at Vladi-
vostok, which japanese strategists
consider a pistol aimed at Nippon'S
heart. Yet, even though Russia be
thoroughly defeated in Europe, the
strength Of Russian forces in the
Far East is such that their overcom-
ing by japanese invasion would
take all the empires available
strength. Continuously begged down
in China, Japan probably would be
unable to move simultaneously
southwark and northWard. A def
mite choice would have to be made.
However, an even deeper choice is
here involved. The prospect of
complete German triumph over
Soviet Russia and its replacement by
a new regime subservient to Berlin
is causing profound misgivingS in
Toxic. Japanese statesmen glimpse
the dread possibility of German
power extending over Siberia and
confronting Nippon from VIadivo-
stok. This would indeed upset the
balance of power in the Far East and
might reduce Japan to mere satel-
lite of Notwithstanding Reich. In
Toxic, the spectacle of MussoliniS
Italy has not been overlooked.
The logical answer to this dis
quieting eventuality is drastic
change in Japanese foreign policy,
abandoning aggressive designs any,
where in the Far East, breaking with
the Axis, and seeking an accept
able solution of the Chinese "inci-
dent" through friendly relations
with Britain and America. 1t is
unlikely that the present govern
ment typifed by Mr.. Matsuoka
could engineer so complete an
about-face. They would presumably
have to be replaced by different
leaders. Yet such men undoubtedly
exist, and stranger things have hap
pened.
A clear intimation like that just
uttered by Secretary WelleS should
lend support to those moderate
groups in Japan who have never
approved their governments mill
tariStic policies and who are more
than ever disturbed by the trend of
Current eVentS