Evening star., 1941-04-06
BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.

Since the German high command
has attacked Yugoslavia, the Ger
man high command has decided to
attack Yugoslavia, the German
moves are beginning to fit into a
pattern the outlines of which we
can now perceive.
The first move was the sortie of
the Italian fleet, which was in
tended, probably, to interfere with
British troop and supply move
mentS by sea in the Eastern Med
iUerranean. This proved a failure
Next came the advance of Ger
man armored units into Cyrenaica,
no doubt with some Italian sup
port. This is intended to cause the
British anxiety as to the safety of
their base, Egypt. on which every
thing depends; and to hold fast as
many British troops as possible in
Africa.
The British estimate of the Ger
man strength is parts of three ar
mored divisions" which is doubt
less literally true; these troops
came across from Sicily to Tripoli
by sea and were subject to attack
by British submarines, which scored
some successes Consequently only
certain parts of the originally en-
barked forces would have arrived.
Libyan Move Diversion.
1t is necessary to point out that
the passage of these troops took
place during the time when the
British Mediterranean fleet was oc-
cupied with bringing in distant con-
voys and covering the passage of
British troops to the European
mainland.
1t is hardly to be expected that
even under the protection of their
air force in Sicily and Southern
Italy the Germans can now main
tain free flow of supplies to Trip
oil sufficient to permit an offensive
in great strength against the Brit
ish in Cyrenaica.
Probably one of their greatest
gains is the fact that from Bengasi
their air force can reach the Brit
ish advance naval base in Crete;
but the scale of air activities which
can be maintained from BengaSi
will not be a large one because of
the supply problem. This Libyan
move is a diversion, but it does not
seem likely to affect the outcome
of any Balkan struggle.
Yugoslav Thrust Possible.
The Germans have, however, had
to take into account the fact that
despite their military dominance
in Italy, the most far-reaching re-
suits might follow Yugoslav
thrust into Albania; this seems
certain if Germany attacks Yugo-
slavia. The Yugoslav 9th Army and
some remnants of the Sd Army are
poised on the Albanian frontier,
ready to act.
Now we hear that the Germans
are rushing four divisions of Tyro-
lese mountain troops by rail down
through Italy, with the evident
hope of getting some of them into
Albania. These troops fought eX-
cellently in Norway. and are about
the only troops the Germans possess
which can be considered equal to
the task of stopping Yugoslav
offensive in mountain terrain. The
most vigorous action by the Anglo
Greek air and naval forces may be
anticipated to prevent their cross
mg the Strait Of Otranto into
Albania, countered by the German
air froce from Italy and Bengasi.
1t is, however, quite possible that
any attempt to move these troops
into Albania might precipitate a
Yugoslav attack once reused to
fighting pitch, the Yugoslav is not
patient man. The excellent,
though small, Yugoslav Navy must
also be taken into account; its
naval base at Boka Kotorska is
admirably placed for attacking
hostile shipping in the. Strait of
Otranto.
Nazis Have Supply Trouble.
In Bulgaria, Gen. List appears
to be having some anxiety as to his
supplies, communications and gen.
eral deployment. There is some
evidence that the Germans rushed
more troops and air forces into
Bulgaria than they could hope to
supply there under active service
conditions, having only one cir
cuitous rail line to depend on-that
through the Rumanian Dobruja,
crossing the Danube by the Ruman-
10 hriInn OF Torro undo
The Danube is unfordable, and has
no bridge between Ceravoda and
Belgrade except such pontoon
bridges as the Germans have thrown
across. The Germans appear to
have counted OH the Yugoslav rail-