The Waterbury Democrat., 1941-08-01


 homie pressure will be carrie
 Both the United States and Great Britain are employing economic warfare against Japan with extreme delicacy. Neither wishes to see Japan prostrate power, beaten into position of impotence. They hope that gradual tightening of economic bands will restrain Japan from ac- tions which might inflame the entire Far East.
 To put it another way, they wish to curb Japan while at the same time leaving pathway through which Japan might escape toward better relationships with the anti Axis powers.
 The exact point at which Japan would abandon caution and fight against any odds to preserve what she considers her position as the dominant power of East Asia" is problematical. The very uncer- tainty of that limit to which Japan could be driven only adds explo- siveness to the far eastern situa- ton.
 Japan Would Fight
 Japan would fight if her leaders thought she was being driven to wall because her militarists have preached invincibility and because the people, wearied by more than four years of the warfare against China. have stood about all they Ghn nAVY1I nrfry i,, k4 international pressure without domestic upheavel and it is reason able to suppose that the men who direct Japan's destiny would at- tempt desperate gamble rather than accept defeat which would not only reduce Japan's world prestige but bring about harsh in- ternal disorders.
 From Japan's standpoint the the United States and Great Brit ain are not so important as the rupture of trade relations with the Netherlands East Indies.
 Japan believed she would be able to get oil from the Indies even if the United States stopped oil ship n1ents.
 Refusal of oil Hurts
 If the Indies persist in refusing to sell oil to Japan the Nipponese will be in a situation which they mighs decide calls for direct action. The Japanese say that they have enough oil to supply their nations need for a full year under war time conditions-and they mean war against first rate power. That statement is debatable. But even if they had a years supply the Japanese would not be content to see it eaten into without re- placements and the urgent need for oil will be largely responsible for whatever policy they decide to follow.
 Some Japanese leaders felt that the move into French Indo-C China, with possible increases in their trade concessions from Thailand, might ease Japan along with its need for oil. rubber and tin. oil from Indo-C China and Thailand, however. would not be sufficient to make up for the quantities Japan has been shipping from the Indies. On the other hand, the Indies authorities might work out some permit system whereby the Japa- nese might be allowed to purchase oil enough to keep them satisfied. It would be a continuation, and probable tightening, of President Roosevelt'S announced DO Hey whereby oil shipments to Japan were continued for the purpose of restraining Japan from fighting for it.
 Japs Undetermined
 Japan's attitude toward the oil curtailment, naturally, cannot be determined until the full policy has been unfolded.
 Her history, short as it may be when compared with those of west eln powers, contains several prece- dents showing that Japan, when aroused as a nation, can act with force and determination.
 She went into the first war against China with feeling of in- feriority and a fear that China. with her greater man-power and size, might prove unbeatable. That was in 1894. Japan won an easy victory.
 Again in the early 1900's, Japan was greatly concerned about Rus sia's advances in Manchuria and Korea and finally, in 1940. tackled Russia with the greatest of misgiv- ings. Japan against Russia was united and of single purpose, de- veloping an enthusiasm which has not been approached in the current Sino-Japanese war.
 Japan Beat Russia
 Japan defeated Russia and in so doing brought to the international scene the first of several innova- tions in modern warfare. The Japanese fleet was steaming toward Port Arthur, the Russian occupied Earbor of Manchuria, be- fore the Japanese government de- clared war and was ready to strike at the moment the war become of- ficial.
 That was, different technique Il .