Imperial Valley press., 1941-01-03

OF my forecast, this is equivalent
TO the entire year of l94l.
Germany is storing up huge guam
Titles of arsenic to be used in an
attempt to destroy the crops of Great
Britain next summer or next fall
If England is also storing arsenic
and succeeds in destroying the crops
OF German, the war may end next
fall. 1t is evident that both sides
will attempt destruction by arsenic,
fire, or otherwise say this because
the effect of such a crop-killing
campaign would be more serious
for Germany than for England.
England is dependent to the extent
of only 359o on her home crops,
while Germanys dependence is 90e6.
Germany, moreover, is unable TO
import except by robbing adjoining
nations, and hence, MUST conserve
all her own crops. People are not
frightened by bombs, as only one
person out of many thousands suf-
fers from them; but the fear of
starvation will throw a nation into
panic. Hence, statisticians believe
that the ending of the war in favor
of England depends upon the sue
cess of the British blockade sup
plemented by the destruction of
German crops.
Let's Look at the Record
Let me say that 194I should be
the best business year this country
has ever witnessed. Everything from
cradles to coffins, including divid-
ends and pay envelopes, should show
fine gain over 1910. We hear much
bowling about taxes. When you con-
slider, however, that the Excess Prof
its tax on firms with large invested
capital does not begin until they
earn 8 per cent net, even taxes are
not so serious
Industrial activity directly relat-
ed to defense will account for about
10 per cent of total 194I business.
Production indirectly related to de-
tense will also aggregate about 10
per cent Thus in 1941, 20 per cent
of our total business activity will
come from armaments. 1 expect the
Babsonchart Index of Business to
average about 10 per cent higher
than in 1940 Notable gains should
take place in textiles, shoes, mining,
foods, printing, publishing, ship
building, building, freight traffic,
and many other industries. BY
spring, business volume will be re-
cording new all-time high.
1t would be foolish to put a def
.v~1 . r.
chart Index will show in 1941, but
should not be surprised if it aver
ages 125. Estimating the country's
income for 1910 at STA ZOO, ,000, 900, !
forecast a rise to we'll above $780,
000, ,000, 900 for 194l. The 1899 figure
was $4,000, 100000. The greatest ma
tional income to date was in 1929,
when it was $82, 2,885 100000 This
calls for reduction in unemploy-
ment of SO per cent, an increase il
building of 20 per cent. and an in
crease in retail trade of ST per cent.
This means that sales of physical
volume of merchandise will show
moderate gains, as retail prices will
average only slightly higher than
they were last year. This is very
healthy sign.
War or Peace Business
Will be Better
believe that we would have a
prosperous 1941 irrespective of our
defense program. The big business
backlog, the great shortage of hous-
es, and the unprecedented supply of
idle funds are bound to lead to re-
turn of good times. When We add
to this fact the tremendous effect
of the defense program, the result
is staggering. If you have any doubt,
read in your newspaper of the con-
tracts made by the government ev-
cry day for supplies of all kinds. Not
only will the demand for goods be
greater during World War II. but
our industries are in far better posi-
ton to handle the business. The
automobile industry, for instance,
has built approximately 100000
cars since 1918. 1t is now prepared
to build airplane engines and ma
chine guns, as well as trucks and
tanks.
Idle Funds at Maximum Peak
We enter 1941 with the highest
known record of national bank ex-
cess reserves-about seven billion
dollars. This means that banks are
in a position to loan billions of ad
ditional credit No such good con-
dition ever existed in our nation
before Our outstanding bank notes
are covered nearly 100 per cent by
actual gold, while other countries
have a coverage averaging only
about 10 per cent. More money is
------------------------