Evening star., 1941-09-07
HOW u. S. WAR IN PACIFIC MIGHT LOOE
Conflict Could End Without Having Been Fought

out. But it is not likely the American
fleet would bite. Cavite provides power
full defenses, and the land forces, re-
Gently put under United States contro,,
would stand off forces which might make
temporary landings elsewhere on LuZon
Island. Manila could withstand long siege.
A japanese attack on Hawaii is re-
garded as the most unlikely thing in the
world, with one chance in a million of
being successful. Besides having more
powerful defenses than any other post
under the American flag, it is protected
by distance. The japanese feet would
have no bases from which to operate.
1t would have so far to come that
American patrols would spot it long
before it arrived. In any case, American
naval men would like nothing better than
to see the japanese feet outside of Pearl
Harbor where they could take it on.
Distances also make impracticable any
attack on the United States mainland,
as long as Hawaii is in American hands
and the feet is af1oat. A lone raider
might get through and shell a West
Coast city, but that would be of no
strategic importance.
Japanese Hold Camranh.
Aside from the feet, the strategic
prizes in the war would be the four
great naval bases which still are in
Occidental hands-Cavite, Singapore,
Hong Kong and Surabaya, in the Neither
lands East Indies. The only other fine
base already has fallen to the Japanese
-Camranh, in Indo-China. Heavily
fortified by the French and situated
about halfway between Singapore and
Hong Kong, it was a rich plum which
the japanese seized from the French on
July 90, while Britain and the United
States did nothing.
Singapore is one of the most powerful
fortresses in the world. A sea attack
against land defense, always a desperate
undertaking, would provide the United
States fleet with its opportunity to en-
gage the japanese on the open sea.
An advance by land forces, through
Thailand and down the Malay Peninsula,
therefore, would seem to be the logical
approach. The first move would be a
swift thrust through southern Thailand,
fast enough to prevent the British army
in Burma, to the west, from coming
to the assistance of British troops in
the peninsula. On this narrow strip
of land, or In Thailand or Indo-China
If the British choose to take the initia-
tive, decisive battle might be waged.
1t is at least doubtful, however, that
Japan will attempt a southern move
at this time. With Russia engaged in
a life-anddeath struggle against Ger
many, she has her historic opportunity
to try to take Siberia. And she is not
expected to attempt new campaigns both
in Siberia and the East Indies-5000
miles apart-at one time.
Meanwhile. the American blockade
would be strangling the empire, and
experts estimate Japan's stores would
be used up within a year or, at most,
two years. Aid to China and Russia
would increase, and the war of attrition
would be taking its toll. And possibly
pressure from the American public
would force naval and military authort-
ties to take a more direct hand In th9
struggle than they deemed prudeEA
Soldiers, long inactive and under arnA
would present morale problem; ana
the public by then might be inf1ared
by sinking of American ships.