Evening star., 1941-07-23
Iberia Next?

IDefl0 INexr!
Acting Secretary of State Sumner
Welles' warning of fresh German ag-
gresSions in Europe after a military
decision in Russia is we'll timed. Al
though he declined to name names,
Mr.. Welles' accompanying rebuttal
of the anti American outburst by
General Franco logically indicated
the Iberian Peninsula as the scene OF
Germany's next major move. Such
action is clearly in line with the
requirements of German strategy.
Two important objectives are in
volved. The first of these is Axis
mastery of the Mediterranean. The
second is an Axis counterStroke at
the United States by creating serious
trouble in Latin America. For both
these aims, German control of the
Iberian Peninsula is a prime neces-
sity.
Germany was driven to take the
great gamble of attacking its gi-
gantic eastern neighbor by the ur-
gent need of mobilizing and direct
ing the flow of RusSia'S vast natural
resources, especially those of the
Ukraine and the Caucasus. But
those vital supplies of foodstuffs,
ores and oil can never be effectively
siphoned into the Reich overland in
sufficient quantities; neither will the
Black Sea and Danube water route
suffice. They must be shipped via
the Mediterranean to Italian and
French ports. And that cannot be
done so long as British sea power
retains even partial control over the
Mediterranean water routes.
Britain cannot be entirely expelled
from the Mediterranean until it
loses control over both the entrances,
at Gibraltar and Suez. But the Suez
Canal is narrow man-made affair
which might conceivably be rendered
useless by sustained Axis aerial at
tackS, whereas the Straits of Gibral-
tar are a broad natural highway
which can be effectively blocked only
by Axis control of both shores. Al
though Britain's stronghold of the
Rock today dominates the Straits,
the European and African shores
are alike Spanish territory, and
Frances Spain is obviously in the
hS-ic orhi 70 l,1fn IN
when the time is deemed ripe by
the German high command A Ger
man stroke through Spain at Gibral-
tar and the Straits presumably would
encounter no Spanish opposition,
whereas military blows at Suez could
be delivered only by long and cir
cuitouS routes.
Once the Germans start using
Spain as a base of operations, they
can hardly leave their flank exposed
from Portugal, the other Iberian
nation. Unlike Spain, Portugal tries
to maintain genuine neutrality. But
it is too small and weak to resist
effectively major attacks on its land
frontiers. Whether the present
Portuguese government would at
tempt to resist a German invasion
is an open question. 1t probably
would do so if Britain could give
Portugal effective assistance, as in
Napoleon'S day.
While the time for military inter
vention in the Iberian PepinSula has
not yet come, Germany already is
using FRANCOIS Spain as useful in
strument for Axis propaganda in
Latin America. The Axis plot just
uncovered and thwarted in Bolivia
is merely one indication of the
elaborate schemes Matched by Axis
agents and sympathizers in many
Latin American countries. Hitherto
they have been kept under cover,
but as the hour for German
Intervention in Spain approaches,
the signal presumably will be given
to create trouble of all kinds.
Thus the trend of events seems
clearly to portend that Spain will
succeed Russia as the focus of Axis
aggression in the near future. Early
autumn is the most likely time, as
Suming that Russian resistance will
have ceased to preoccupy German
arms as it does today.