Evening star., 1941-02-09
Britain Given Even
Chance
By OUen L. Scott.

naval officials Of this Government If
the British do withstand this initial at
tack, their prospect of surviving in the
struggle will depend almost entirely on
the volume of help from the United
States
These conclusions of informed Ameri-
can officials are strongly bulwarked by
knowledge of preparations and counter
preparations of the Germans and Brit
ish. They fail to give ground for the
cheerful optimism of some members of
Congress who see nothing in the world
situation about which the United States
needs to be greatly concerned. Rather
the facts appear to be these:
Adolf Hitler has not yet made his real
attack against Britain. The mass air
raids of last September we're expert
mental-designed to determine whether
Germany possessed air strength suffi-
cient to force a decision at that time
The obvious conclusion was that Ger
man losses in the ratio of to /, as
compared with the British, were too
great to permit showdown without fur
ther preparation. Since that time. Ger
man raids have been directed at inter-
ference with British production and at
undermining morale. In neither of
those objectives has the German air
force been particularly successful
But preparations have been pushed
on vast scale during the fall and WIN
ter. In those preparations the Germans
have IRA tha rorOd,rctiuo
ties of Czecho-Slovakia, Poland, Belgium,
France, Holland and the Scandinavian
countries. They have drawn from these
countries much more than the United
States has supplied Great Britain, so
the Germans have maintained and have
even added to their relative strength.
Germany now possesses approximately
$4,000 combat warplanes, of which 10000
are in operating squadrons and 10000 are
reserves. She has at least $4,000 trained
pilots as we'll as ground crews and other
air personnel in proportion One of her
difficulties last fall was an inability to
put into the air very large number of
planes owing to inadequate landing
fields Work on new fields in France
Belgium, Holland and the Scandinavian
countries has gone forward under pres
sure
Also the Germans are reported by mill
tarv officials of this country to possess
new types of high-fying bombers that
have not set been used. They are said
to have now types of fighters ready for
use. They have not yet used gas in their
attacks and the denials that they will
use gas only increase the probability that
its use is intended. They have not made
extensive use of aerial torpedoes that
proved effective in trials aimed at ter
rorization ana destruction
Against this background the future of
this war must be viewed
The Germans still possess at least a
4-to-l advantage over the British in
number of combat planes Their train
ing has been perfected and their facii-
ties for keeping airplanes in the air in
large numbers have been expanded since
fall. The result is that Britain's dan
ger has not passed. and the climax of
the war apparently still lies ahead.
Two courses of action are believed bv
military authorities here to be in Hitlers
mind: One IS to try direct assault upon
England This is the course this Gov
ernments strateGists seem to think he
will try. It involves an attempt to gain
control OF the air over England as
preliminary to actual invasion 1t would
call for sustained air attack, night and
DAY, until British planes had been de-
stroyed or at least had been driven far
back from the English Channel. If the
British air force survived the attack and
still dominated the skies over England
there would be no invasion. However.
If the British air force were grounded. or
driven back, the Germans would at
tempt landing and new blitzkrieg.
A second possible course of German
action is to attempt to bring Britain to
her knees by indirect assault. This
would call for simultaneous invasion of
Ireland, Portugal and Spain. with Gil
braltar as the goal and the African
mainland across from Gibraltar. Some
military ard naval opinion here is that
somewhat less of a gamble because of
the fact that Ireland. like the Scandi-
navian countries, it without effective de-
lenses Of her own, and the other points
can be picked off with a fair degree of
ease and certainty. The purpose would
be to gain new bases from which to
strangle Britain into submission.
Hitler in hic 10 CT
this second course of action He en-
phasized destruction of the British source
of supplies
In either event, if Great Britain is 60
Ing to be able to stand up to the COM
ing attacks, the United States will be
forced to play much larger role in
the war as suppler of the British.
President Roosevelt's lend-lease bill is
geared to. recognition of this fact. It
is based on the advice of this countrv's
military and naval strategistS that the
independence of the British Isles is vital
to the defense of this hemisphere.
But that defense cannot be assured
without real effort on the part of the
United States The reason for this is
that Great Britain is an exposed outpost.
Her industry is undergoing frequent in
terruption from air attack Her trade,
on which the island must be supported,
is harassed and partly destroyed by SUBJ
marine and air attack. A violent Ger
man assault may disrupt key industries
oiv M Of Ply