Evening star., 1941-09-07
Black Seq Strategy

capture of the great naval base at
Nikolaiev gives the Reich firm foot
hold on the Russian shore of the
Black Sea, that vast saltwater lake
connected with the Mediterranean
and the outer world solely through
the Turkish-held Straits of the
BoSporus and DardanelleS.
Despite those losses and the cur
rent siege of Odessa, the Black Sea
is still commanded by the Russian
fleet, with nothing to oppose it ex-
cept the miniature Bulgarian and
Rumanian navieS, plus a few small
submarines which the Germans are
reported to have sent by rail in Sec
tions for reasSemblage at Rumaniar
and Bulgarian shipyards. 1t is in
conceivable that these naval units,
together with attacks by Stuka
bombers, could destroy Russia's rela-
lively large Black Sea fleet or SO re-
duce it in effectiveness as to render
it negligible factor.
But, so long as Russia commands
the Black Sea, Germany will be COM
PEELED to conduct costly and ardu-
Gus overland campaign across nearly
a thousand miles of Russian territory
before it reaches the eastern end of
the Caucasus Mountains, within
striking distance of the main Rus
sian oil fields at Baku on the Caspian
Sea, which are assumed to be one of
the Reich'S chief objectives in its
war with the Soviet Union. If con-
troll of the Black Sea could pass to
the Reich and its Axis allies, troops
could be transported by water and
fianking landings made at many
! points along Russia's Black Sea
coasts, including the port city of
Batum, the terminus of the pipe line
for Baku oil.
Such control cannot feasibly be
attained unless Axis transports and
warships pass through the Straits
from the Mediterranean. That,
however, raises the ticklish question
of Turkish neutrality. BY the Dip
lomatic convention which regulates
| the international status of the
Straits, Turkey is not obligated to
forbid the passage of merchant ship
ping even in wartime. But it Is thus
obligated regarding warships, and
! the Axis would gain nothing by send
ing merchant vessels into the Black
Sea without the presence Of Warships
| able to protect them from Russian
attack.
There can be little doubt that Ger
| man diplomacy has been putting
/ heavy pressure on Turkey to make
deal for free use of the Straits in
return for guarantee of Turkish
| sovereignty. To back up those argu-
ments, large German forces plus the
Bulgarian Army are massed on the
frontiers of European Turkey, and it
seems to be the belief of most mill
tary experts that the Turks could
not long defend this exposed from
tier against a arge-scale Axis drive.
That would give the Axis control
of the Straits for naval purposes.
But it would also drive Turkey into
the arms Of Britain and Russia. On
the other hand, should Turkey yield
to German pressure, it is not improb-
able that Britain and Russia would
take preventive action" similar to
that recently employed in Iran, and
would try to occupy large parts of
Asiatic Turkey Ankara made no
secret of its anger and alarm when
Russian forces occupied Northern
Iran adjacent to it's eastern border.
And since the British conquest of
Syria, Turkey is similarly exposed
along the rest of its ASiatic frontier.
All this does not mean that Turk
ish neutrality will be assailed to-
morrow Germany probably will
wait until winter has slowed down
the battle fronts in Northern and
Central Russia before making de-
ciSive moves in the Black Sea area,
where winter campaigning is feasi-
BILE. 1t is still more unlikely that
Britain and Russia would initiate
preventive occupations of Turkish
territory, which might drive Turkey
over to the Axis. But the danger is
| there And Aukara is well aware of
the ominouS possibility.