Evening star., 1941-10-23
Moscow Knockout Doubted
Time and Elements Against koz Victory
In North With Stolemote Indicated

Marshal Tmoshenko may prove the
superior Of the highly educated Ger
man gentleman. Gen Won Book.
However that may be, the next |
few days should give some indica-
ton As to whether the German
pause before Moscow will settle into
winter stalerhate or whether the |
Germans are gathering their forces
and reorgAnizing their supply sys-
tenn for another try. In the former |
case, as previously remarked inFthese
articles, it seems likely that they
will commence transferring forces
to the south where the weather still |
is not too unfavorable TO 4 war Of
movement
Kharksv Threatened.
The progress which the German
southern campaign has been max
ing has passed all but unnoticed,
shouldered out OF the headlines by
the titanic struggle before Moscow.
Yet at Taganros the German armies
are closer to Rostov than they have
come to Moscow as yet. and some
where east OF Poltava they are
threatening the great heavy industry
center OF Kharkov. The fall OF
these two places would mark
severe loss to the Russians, 4 loss
of the industrial power which must
support all modern fighting forces
If they are to survive 1t has been
said that Russia's industrial strength
rests on five pillars: the heavy in
dustry Of the Kharkov-Rostov reg
ion, the heavy industry Of the Ural-
Middle Volea region, the mixed
Cheavy and IghD industry Of the
Leninsrad area. the mixed industry
Of Moscow and its vicinity, and the
oil and other resources OF the Cau-
casus. The loss Of any one. OF these
would not be fatal; the loss Of two
would be = severe shock to the
whole structure; the loss OF any
three would leave the remainder in
a desperate condition.
So far, none have been wholly lost.
Leningrad is all but surrounded, but
its Industry is able TO support its de-
tending forces Moscow is still in
Soviet hands. The Khsrkov- -Rostov
area has been penetrated, but its
main centers are not yet taken. The
Ural-Volga area and the Caucasus
are still remote.
That Is the balance sheet OF four
months OF German attack on Rus
sia; TO which may be added that the
Russian armies and fleets, with their
air forces, are still in being, and
that II they have suffered losses,
these are probably not much greater
than the German losses, both In
men and material. Nevertheless, It
is upon the dwindlins strength Of
the Russian industrial support to
the fighting forces that the Germans
must pin their chief hopes Of vie
tory, either now or in the spring;
and 1t is upon the ability, by far.
fiung and arduous lines Of com.
munication, OF the British and
Americans to make up for those
losses by fnunitioning the Russians,
that the Russian hopes must be
founded.
Much Hinges on Leaders.
Again Weighing every known
factor in the balance Of considered
judgment this writer sees no rea-
son to alter the opinion expressed
three weeks ago At the beginning
Of the great German assault on Mos
COW: That the Germans are prob
ably not going to score q knockout
in that sector any more than they
had previously been able 10 do in
the north or the south. They may
make further advances; In the
south, are likely to do %. They
have partially succeeded in separat-
ing the three Russian main army
groups, but not wholly. They may
make another attempt on Moscow,
or an attempt to encircle Marshal
Timoshenko's armies, but time is
now heavily against them As the
weather grows worse; it Is because