Evening star., 1941-06-24
japanese Ouondury

cloSeted in secret sessions for pro-
longed deliberation. Well they may,
for the Russo-German war has COM
pletely upset political calculations in
| the Orient. With everything there
made provisional and uncertain, a
new appraisal of the situation is i'm
perative.
One advantage Japan possesses. 1t
has automatically a free hand. Al
though Japan is an ally of Germany,
she is not legally bound to aid Ger
many in the present struggle, since
Germany declared war on Russia and
is thus the aggressor. Furthermore,
by the recent Russo-Japanese neu-
trality pact, made with German
approval, japan is technically COM
mitted to hands-off policy toward
her Soviet neighbor. So Toxic can
sit back and quietly watch the con-
f1ict develop, if it so desires.
OF course, a quick collapse of Rus
sian resistance before the German
invasion would probably revive in the
minds of Japanese militarists the old
dream of conquering Russias mari
time provinces or even of overrun-
ming Siberia to the strategic line of
Lake Baikal. Should such an oppor-
tunity arise, it is unlikely that the
aggressive expansionists today so
prominent in the japanese govern
ment would let mere neutrality pact
stand in their way But such a move
is improbable at this stage of the
game.
Indeed, decisive German victory
over Russia might heighten the un-
easinesS already visible in some Japa-
nese circles that Hitler is after world
dominion in the literal sense of the
term. That would ultimately en-
danger even the Reich'S distant ally
in the Far East, and no japanese
wishes to see his country reduced to
the servile status of Italy, the other
Axis partner.
Such disquieting reflections must
be strengthening the influence of the
business and financial minority
which consistently has opposed rash
aggressions leading to bad relations
with Britain and America Although
today unlikely, it is by no means i'm
possible that the course of events
might lead to decisive turn in Japa-
nese foreign policy away from the
Axis and toward the EngliSh-speak-
ing powers.
This would naturally involve the
abandonment of Japan's attempt to
Subjugate China. But, If this were
part of an understanding with Brit
ain and America, those powers could
doubtless negotiate a compromise
settlement reasonably acceptable to
both sides. Such a settlement pre-
sumably would become easier if the
present Communist regime in Russia
were superseded by nationalist re-
gime, pledged to fight the Germans
yCV NAeIIOuG IllC SOIL1l lCFOluUlOIldIy
aims abroad which have so alarmed
Japan and also complicated China's
policies, domestic and foreign alike.
Especially revealing at this mo-
ment may be Tokio's attitude toward
the Netherlands Indies. The Japa-
neSe government has stated that,
while acquieScing in Batavia'S re-
fusal to grant its economic demands,
it is prepared to present them again
on more auspicious occasion.
Batavia refused largely in order to
prevent Japan from sending vital
raw materials from the Dutch Indies
to Germany via the Trans Siberian
Railway Now that this avenue has
been closed by the war, Toxic can
logically point out that this objection
is no longer valid and that therefore
negotiations should be resumed in
the light of changed conditions.
All this underscores the necessity
for realistic thinking and ar-sighted
diplomacy on all sides. The Far
Eastern situation has become fluid
overnight. True craftsmanship has
the opportunity of shaping a new
pattern along better and sounder
lines.