Evening star., 1941-11-04
Black SEQ Strategy

Block SEQ Str0teqy
The threatened German conquest
| of the Crimea, besides it's local impor-
tance, raises the larger aspect OF
Black Sea naval control. Hitherto,
this extensive body of water, with its
appendant estuary known as the Sea
of Azov, has been dominated by the
Russian Navy. Russias Black Sea
fleet is not, in itself, especially formi-
dable. It consists of one antiquated
battleship, few cruisers and sizable
hotillas of destroyers and subma-
rines. But thus far 1t has had no
real opposition. Germany's Balkan
allies, Rumania and Bulgaria, have
only a few light warcraft, supple
mented at most by certain number
of German E-boats motored down
the Danube River, and small subma-
rines, transported by rail in sections
and reassembled in Rumanian or
Bulgarian ports.
Turkish neutrality has closed the
Dandanelles to Italian warships, and
unless Turkey yields to Axis pressure
this ban is likely to continue. How
ever, the Russian Black Sea fleet
needs naval bases for shelter, dock
age and repair facilities. Already
it has lost Odessa and Nikolaiev,
the two bases in the western part Of
the Black Sea Sevastopol, the most
important base of all, in the Crimea,
is now menaced by the approaching
German armies. Even though it
could Withstand a siege temporarily,
land bombardments and Stuka
bombing attacks would render it
unsuitable for the fleet.
There remains only the secondary
naval base at Novorossiisk, which lies
on the North Caucasus coast. about
seventy miles from the Strait OF
Kerch, which separates the eastern
tip of the Crimea from the mainland
and forms the connecting link be-
tween the Black Sea and the Sea OF
Azov. That strait, however, is little
wider than large river, being only
two miles across at its narrowest
point. A crossing by the Germans
should be no more difficult than the
forcing of river lines, In which their
engineering and artillery corps seem
to be adept. Once established on the
mainland, there would be no natural
barriers to an advance on Novoros-
SiiSk, and thence to the oil fields OF
Maikop and the fueling harbor Of
Tuapse.
With the fall Of Novorossiisk. the
Russian Black Sea fleet would be
badly handicapped. It still could be
refueled and provisioned at Batum a
commercial port and the terminus Of
the oil pipe line from the Baku fields
on the Caspian. However, Baku is
not a naval base, and is at the ex-
treme eastern end of the Black Sea.
That is 500 miles east of Sevastopol
and 300 miles east of Novorossiisk.
Under such handicaps, it is difficult
to see how the Russian Navy could
maintain its grip over most of the
Black Sea, which thenceforth would
become fairly safe for the transport
Of German troops and supplies under
guard Of submarines and airplanes.
That would greatly ease the long
overland supply routes for the Ger
man armies in South Russia, and
would facilitate the winter campaign
toward the Caucasus and the lower
Volga River to the Caspian, which
seemingly impends.
Nevertheless, the Russian Black
Sea fleet will remain at least local
obstacle to the German advance as
long as Turkey guards the Straits. To
reach Batum and thus leave the Rus
sian Navy with no landing place
whatever, the Germans will have to
force the towering range Of the
Caucasus Mountains, which reach
directly into the Black Sea. Even
though worn down by submarine and
Stuka attacks, the Russian Black Sea
fleet should thus be factor to be
reckoned with in the problem Of
complete Black Sea mastery.