The Waterbury Democrat., 1941-03-04

shadow boxing. shouting, threaten ing, moving about of battleships, troops, guns, airplanes, building Of new bases for submarines, naval pa- trols, diplomatic feinting in official statements, strengthening of all the Notifications from Singapore to San Diego Everything leading right up to open hostilities. But not the hostilities.
 All the preparedness for war in the Pacific, on the part of both the British and the United States, is perhaps the best reason why the actual flghtin' won't come off. Every move Japan makes toward expansion to the south and east has so far been effectively check mated by the whites, the Dutch in the East Indies, Britain In Ma 1 laya, Australia and New Zealand, the United States in the Philip pines, Alaska, Guam and the other American island possessions in the Pacific, including Hawai-.
 DIPLOMATS
 MERE MEN
 The best of observers in Washing ton are of the opinion that the Jap anese government itself does not know what its program in the Paci- flc is to be, any more than the Uni- ted States government knows what It's program is to be in Europe.
 Officially, we have stated that our program is to stay out of war in Europe, but we don't know that we're going to be able to do 1t. Officially, Japan has stated that her program is to take over all of Oceania and the Orient, but she doesn't know that she'll be able to do 1t.
 Both these doubts are based on the seldom admitted but none the less true confession the best of diplomats will make in confidence they aren't superhumans, they don't have all the information they should have in making deci- sions of policy, and plenty of things just don't happen accord- ing to Hoyle.
 Japan's own uncertainty as to her future Is no greater than the uncertainty of any other country Britain, France, Germany, Italy or the United States as to where 1t will be one year hence. There are, in Japan's case, additional elements of uncertainty in plot ting courses of destiny. There arc the conflicting clements of army, navy, foreign office and home fac- tions within the government. Shortage of food, shortage of stra- tegic materials, threats of eco- homie boycotts from the United States, the necessity of carrying on the China campaign-all these add to her difficulties.
 SINGAPORE
 NO PUSHOVER
 But the greatest uncertainty of all is the situation with regard to Germany's threatened invasion of England. That is, from the Wash ington point of view, the key to un- lock the secret of what happens in the Balkans, in Africa, in the Orient
 If Germany invades England and decisively defeats the British at home, then, anything can hap pen and probably will. Without German occupation of England, the best guess Is that Japan will not make an offensive move against Britain or the United States or the Netherlands East Indies.
 Campaign against Singapore is a tougher problem than most peo- pie realize. It is 29o0 miles from Tokio. Effective range of a fleet is 2500 miles. Along the route are Hong Kong and Manila. Both are vulnerable, but both would have to be taken before Japan would have safe line of commit nications.
 Singapore has Its weaknesses, It has no fleet. Japan's navy has made greater progress in the han ding of seaplanes from aircraft carriers than any other power The number of men involved in any campaign in Malaga would not be large. Latest reports gave the combined British Australian force at 100000 Japan has 50,- 900 in French Indo-China. And Singapore in addition to its forti- fications, does not have supplies to stand tWo-year siege.