Evening star., 1941-10-19
Writer Thinks War Is Heading
Inexorably Toward Stalemate,
Morley Says Situation Indicates That Americas
Present Program of Defense Will Not
Be Enough to Win
By Felix VI orley.

the one hand and Germany on the other
able to deliver the mortal blow neces-
sary for a settlement by force OF arms.
The uncertain quantities In this de-
veloping balance are, Of course, the
United States and, to lesser extent,
Japan.
For some months now British generals
and statesmen have alike frankly ex-
pressed the opinion that Great Britain
and the Dominions cannot alone defeat
Germany on the Continent of Europe.
That Judgment is confirmed by Prime
Minister Churchill's decision against at
tempting to reconstitute western front
during the bitter weeks of Russia's trial
by battle. And as Russian resistance
weakens the possibility of a successful
British invasion from the west of course
becomes steadily more remote.
On the other hand, the prospect Of
German invasion of Great Britain is
brought no closer by the Nazi victories
in Russia. These strengthen the Ger
man powers of resistance but they do
not augment the power of attack across
the English Channel After the collapse
of France, when Russia was doing a
great deal less than nothing to help
Great Britain, the probability of such
an invasion was strong. Since then, it
has steadily declined
In part this is due to the tremen-
dous development of British defensive
strength. But the greater security of
England is also in part due to the flow
of American supplies now reaching real
volume under the Lease-Lend Act. This
American assistance is as yet accom-
plishing little toward the defeat Of Ger
many. But it is accomplishing much to
avert defeat of Great Britain
Stalemate Increasingly Indicated
With the formal repeal, or tacit neg
lect, of what remains of the Neutrality
Act. the security of Great Britain against
German invasion will be to a very large
degree insured. But with the conquest
of the most fertile and valuable Russian
provinces the security of Germany
against British invasion or strangulation
by blockade, will be equally insured. The
developments on both sides of the pic
ture indicate the advent of a situation
which would be essentially one of stale
mate.
Such a development. if this attempt
at objective analysis proves substantially
| correct, is clearly one which calls for
the exercise of the highest degree of
craftsmanship which America can pro-
| duce
In the situation envisaged it will not
be enough merely to press forward with
the defense program. For If Germany
obtains her way in Russia it must be an
ticipated that German industry will ac-
celerate war production in a way parallel
to our own progress. And if the antici-
pated stalemate develops it may not be
broken even by turning the entire pro-
ductive capacity of the world to a pro-
gram of militarization.
There is not only an opportunity for
American craftsmanship. There Is also
very great responsibility on the ad-
ministration for concentration In this
field, as the one certain alternative to
shipping huge American expeditionary
force to Europe
More Than q. S. Navy Needed.
1t is by no means apparent that such
a development would be practical. all
the indications in the British refusal
to attempt the step being to the con-
trary But it is at least clear that if
deadlock sets in more than the sery-
ices of the American Navy will be needed
to break it. Every German submarine
could be sunk and every raider chased
from the seas without bringing the de-
feat of Germany day nearer.
The tragic course of events in Russia
therefore indicates that the time has
come to develop American leadership
which will think further and go further
than the wholesale supply of the sinews
OF war to Britain. Some who see this
need are arguing that the desirable
next step is formally to declare war.
But 1t is still possible that there are
other and more promising alternatives.
Perhaps the initial move in a really
constructive program would be for the
United States to accomplish settlement
in the Far East. There it is certainly.
at least theoretically, possible to wean
Japan from the Axis without letting
China down.
Such an accomplishment would do
more than keep the door of Vladivostok
open for further aid to Russia 1t would
also greatly hearten The American peo-
pie by showing that their government is
competent to work for peace as well as
to prepare for war.