The people's voice. [volume] (Helena, Mont.) 1939-1969, 1941-06-25


trations commitments in the Far East
are hardly less than its commitments
in Europe. Not only have guarantees
been given to China, but guarantees
have been given to the Dutch in the
East Indies, the British in Malaga, and
to Australia and New Zealand. That
is why the navy's main battle fleet
is still based on Pearl Harbor in Ha-
wall with the Asiatic fleet out beyond
as a spearhead If the U. S. navy
should try to fight Japan in Far East
ern waters it would operate under dis
advantages due to over-long commune
cation and supply lines, but 1t is a
war that Japan does not care to fight.
However, to make a real dent in the
German counter blockade, hey
what little the present Atlantic pa
trolls could accomplish even by shoot
ing, would mean that great many
warships would have to be brought
from the Pacific into the Atlantic.
Once U. S. naval power in the Pacific
was substantially reduced, Japan pre-
sumably would move south. Moreover,
open war with Germany and Italy
in the Atlantic automatically would
bring Japan into war against us by
the terms of the Tripartite pact-un-
less Japan for some reason should
decide that her Axis partners had
been the aggressors, which is a purely
political question so far as Japan is
concerned.
This then is a dilemma which the
administration must always keep in
mind-even if some of the military
experts in the daily papers forget it.
One obvious solution is to attempt to
buy Japan out of the Axis. The
trouble with this is that Japan is in
a good bargaining position-especially
since the Soviet pact. She can always
increase her collaboration with the
Axis. Any kind of a deal that could
be made would mean considerable con-
cessions on the part of the U. 5. Obvl-
ously, any concessions to Japan would
be unpopular.
Secret Diplomacy
spread in Washington that the at
tempt to lure Japan out of the Axis
is being made. One thing that has
given the suspicion point was the
omission of any mention of Japan by
the president in his speech on May
81. Despite his allusion to the de-
Tense of China, the president did not
denounce Japan as he did Germany
and Italy. The allusion to China was
not strong enough to be reassuring
to the Chinese whose representatives
suspect that something is going on.
The failure to denounce Japan di-
rectly is also reported to have dis
turbed the Dutch in Batavia. There
are other indications that some new
turn in our relations with Tokyo may
be on the way. The first secretary
of the American embassy in Tokyo
came back to Washington unan-
nounced. There have been many quiet
talks between state department Off
Gals and various aides of the Jap
anese embassy in Washington.
There is no doubt that the Jap
anese want some sort of an agree
ment. However, they are in no mood
to accede to one they do not like.
For one thing they would prefer a
formal ngement-initialed If not
actually signed by representatives of
the two governments. Ambassador
Admiral Nomura is reported to have
gone to the state department himself
and said that his government wanted
no unwritten agreements.
Bluff?
One reason the Japanese would like
an agreement is the very power OF
the u. S. For the U. S. is in a strong
bargaining position too. Presumably
the Dutch are not standing up to
Japan in the Indies without U. 5.
backing. The Japanese are convinced
that the U. S. is not bluffing when 1t
says that any movement southwark
by the Japanese fleet will bring the
u. S. fleet into action against it,
which is the eventuality the Japanese
will avoid at almost any cost. Wheth-
er the U. S. is bluffing or not, the
talk of peace in Europe which Keeps
cropping up might heighten the pos
sibility of U. S. action in the Pacific |
(unless there should be move to
transfer the British fleet to Hitler;
if that should happen, the Far East
might fall to Japan anyway APP |
parently the Japanese do not believe |
the stories that important units OF
the fleet already have been sent into ,
the Atlantic. Neither do many OBJ
servers in Washington.
Mitsui
What the terms of any agreement
with Japan could be is not known.
One trouble is that nobody knows
lust whom to deal with in Tokyo. The
Japanese government has no solid I'M
shifting base. Among those who have
been participating in the conversa-
tions backstage in Washington is a |
representative of the Mitsui, largest |
of the great family combines which
control Japanese commerce and in |
dustry. But how much influence the
Mitsuis will have is a question. Japan
is bubbling inside with social unrest
which takes the form of the extremely
nationalist, yonng-officer, 90 I'd e
spirit, essentially fascist in nature
which might upset any agreement
reached with the help of the Mitsuis.
For the unrest is directed in part
against the big combines.
Quite possibly nothing will come
from all the talk, but that something