Evening star., 1941-02-27
British Expect Ndzis
To Make Good Show
With U-Boat Drive
Naval Officers Doubt,
However, Campaign
Will Be Decisive
BY WILLIAM III. STONEMAN,
Chicago Daily News Foreign Correspondent.

Chicago Daily News Foreign Correspondent.
LONDON, Feb. 27.-The British
Admiralty has given due considera-
ton to Hitler's threat of a tremen-
deus U-boa; campaign, beginning
next month, and naval officers sdmit
that the Germans will probably
make a. good show"
What they do not admit is that
the U-boat campaign will be de-
cisive. Their confidence is based on
past experience and the belief that
this campaign, like the mighty Ger
man effort of 1917, will gradually
peter out in much the same way
and for the same reasons.
What they do admit is that this
campaign will be harder to handle
because:
l. The Germans have more
U-boats than they had in 1917.
2. These U-boats are able to op-
crate from French and Spanish
bases.
3. With the United States not
in the war, the British light sur
face craft are not as numerous as
they were In 1917.
4. While Allied ships were able to
use dozens of different routes and
ports the last time, they are now
confined largely to northwest ap-
proacheS, where it is easy for the
Germans to find them.
Fleet Believed Formidable.
Any large-scale U-boat campaign,
It is pointed out, will inevitably re-
suit in the loss of many U-boats
and their crews, and, over a period
of months, when these losses may
total four or five boats and more
than 100 trained men weekly, the
moral effect upon the German forces
Is bound to be considerable.
1t also Is the rule that the most
courageous captains, the only ones
who really manage to net big bags,
generally are lost fairly early in the
game because they are inclined to
take chances. The supply is limited
even in Germany.
The number of German U-boatS
at present is not known, but it is
certainly formidable. At the wars
beginning, the Germans had 70
completed, compared to % small
boats at the beginning of the World
War and the peak of 140 units which
they reached in October, 1917. The
Germans commissioned 343 new
units in the World War and by Oc-
tober, 1918, were completing them at
the rate of Is monthly. The output
was expected to reach 80 monthly
by 1920.
Since Hitler is able to concentrate
on the construction of aircraft and
U-boats and has shipyardS in Hol-
land, Denmark, Norway, Italy and
France, in addition to those the
Germans had in the last war, it
must be assumed that the output Is
much higher than it was scheduled
to be in 1920.
Nazis May Have 500 Subs.
If, however, they have only aver
aged 80 per month since the wars
beginning, they have added $40 units
to their original fleet, giving them
a grand total of SIG, minus losses.
These may run to more than 100,
although the British refuse to make
Ill eSllTldUe.
So it is as good a guess as any
that the Germans have 500 units,
or more than three times as many
as they had at any one time in the
World War.
Due to the capture of French
ports, U-boatS are now able to reach
their stations in three or four days
compared to the 10 to II days which
they needed in the late days of the
World War, when they were forced
to circumnavigate the British Isles
to reach the Channel. The result
is that U-boats can spend more
time in port, crews are able to have
far more leave, and morale will not
be endangered until losses become
really heavy.
Copyright, 1871, Chicago Daily News, Incl