Detroit evening times. (Detroit, Mich) 1921-1958, 1941-12-19
By CLARK III. KAwAKAMu


Former Correspondent Of Donsei. oSicfai
japanese News Agency
written Expressly for Init News servicey
WASHINGTON. Dec. 19.-n
Japan succeeds in knocking out
Singapore. Hongkong and the
Philippines. at the same time gain>
ing control of the vital raw maA
terials Of Malaga and possibly the
Indies in addition TO cutting Of
aid to China. it will require not
one but several years of hard,
costly fighting to defeat her.
II Japan does not succeed and
is forced to continue the present
heavy drain on her war reserves
without replenishment. while her
people suffer increased hardships
and the demoralizing effect Of
aerial bombings. there Is reason to
hope that Japan will crack within
a year, perhaps little longer.
SEES THEORY WRONG
But let us not make the grievous
mistake of believing, as some
newspaper columnists have told us
in the past. that the American
fleet could sail out. whip Japan
into surrender and be back at
Pearl Harbor in six weeks.
That is the kind of error which.
fortunately for the democratic
cause, Hitler has made in Russia.
Eleven days have now elapsed
since the fateful Sunday on which
Japan launched her well-nigh UNI
believable attacks upon British
and American strongholds through
out the Pacific. Reprehensible as
those attacks were, and grievous
as were the losses which the ele-
ment Of surprise enabled Japan to
inflict. they have had two very
wholesome effects in the United
States which can only serve to
strengthen this country's war eff.
fort and contribute toward ulti.
mate victory.
SAYS 1T ISN'T EASY
These effects are, firstly, the
forging OF American opinion into
one unified whole in support Of
prosecuting the war against world
Nazism TO a victorious conclusion:
and, secondly, the elimination Of
the all-too-current and highly dam
gerous assumption that Japan is a
foe that can be easily disposed Of
within the space of few months.
The overnight qualification Of
American opinion and the ire
mendous effect it is already having
in eliminating political obstruction
and speeding up war efforts in
every field are so clear as to call
for little comment.
Why, then. did Japan not cons
tent herself with another piece.
meal move into Thailand? Such
a step would undoubtedly have
started the ball rolling toward
war, but reasonable doubt exists
that it would have precipitated
Immediate shooting hostifities.
HE SEES ANSWER
The answer, I believe, lies In
a combination of German pressure
and strategic economic considera.
tons. Germany stalled in Russia,
was preserving Toxic as never be-
fore to plunge into the war to
prevent the balance from tipping
in favor Of the Anglo-American
coalition.
With the japanese American
peace talks deadlocked, the Ger.
mans found in Premier TOTO q
ready listener and IL now seems
clear that Japans fatal decision
was reached soon after TOTO took
office in October.
For the Germans. a half-hearted
japanese move into Thailand
would have meant little relief, so
they urged Japan TO go the whole
hog. And on Japans side. too,
there must have been the cali
culation that, If war with the
United States was bound 10 come
eventually, it was better for Japan
10 fight before 'ABCD economic
pressure snapped the sinewS OF
her fighting strength.