Evening star., 1941-03-05

Berlin -Baghdad affair would make
this area tremendous battlefield.
Germany is experimenting here al
ready. Luftwafie planes have raided
the Suez Canal. But this activity is
only spasmodic and the loss is not
worth the results to the Germans.
Italy has not bombed Palestine for
some time. In fact, the whole de-
fense along this coastline against
air and sea attack is much better
than three months ago.
The Dodecanese Islands are still
sore in Britain's Eastern Mediter-
ranean side. Somewhat nullified by
the British use of Crete as an air
base, the Dodecanese are neverthe-
less an annoyance to the British.
Italy sends supplies to the islands
by air. Not all the planes get
through and the supply situation is
becoming more precarious for the
islands inhabitants.
For few days it looked as though
Britain was going to move right into
the Dodecanese, when troops oc-
cupied Castellross Island, near the
Turkish coast. This troops were
withdrawn almost Immediately. The
actual purpose of this occupation
and withdrawal has not been made
known as yet. 1t probably will come
out in the wash of the next few
weeks.
Balkan Area Developing.
The fourth corner is the Balkan
area. Here is developing activity
which may set the other three cor
ners alight. Whatever happens in
this corner will determine the direc-
ton of the war. Everything Is tense
here. waiting to see whether Hitler
will 60 beyond Bulgaria and take a
chance on settling the war in the
Mediterranean. AS a gamble in a
purely military sense, 1t would be
more of a risk than an invasion Of
England.
But any further move by Hitler
in the Balkans must be preluded by
the usual political undermining,
which takes time. AS a political
strategist Hitler has followed the
military policy Of Napoleon in null
lifying the need for battle as far as
possible. Hitler will not lunge if his
opponent can parry. And this gov
erns his further moves in the
Balkans.
If Hitler is to move again soon it
probably will be against Yugoslavia.
The recent Turkish and British get
togethers and the existing British
Greek tie-up make Turkey and
Greece hardest to tackle But Ger
man occupation Of Yugoslavia would
not precipitate Mediterranean
battle. 1t is necessary for Germany
to move against Greece or Turkey
before the Mediterranean situation
can be brought to head
A move toward YugoSlavia is fur
ther indicated by Italy's desperate
attempt to hang on to Albania. 1t
gives her q foot in the Balkans and
it is about the biggest role Italy
Is playing in this match.
Fleet Big Threat to Nozis.
Yet even German-Italian control
Of the Balkan coastline would not
mean control Of the Eastern Med
iterranean nor the coaStline near it.
The British feet runs this end of
the Mediterranean more or less as
it likes. The great single factor
stacked against the German threat
to the Eastern Mediterranean is this
feet.
Summing up. one of three things
may happen: First, Germany may
attempt a two-way move into the
Mediterranean via Italy and the
Balkans. Second, Britain may her
self precipitate German offensive
so that she can meet the Germans
in a place of her own choosing.
Third, Germany may not move
at all.
Germany, who has always want
ed Balkan peace so she could milk
the area dry, may be content tot
consolidate herself in the Balkans.
But Just now Hitler is trying the
Mediterranean water with his big
toe. Either he will plunge right in
or he will draw out his toe and put
his sock back. At the moment it
looks as though he will take the
plunge.