Evening star., 1941-04-02
Arms Drive Curbs
Peacetime Needs
Only in Spots
Normal Production
To Continue Unless
U. S. Enters War
BY PAUL ID. GESNER,
Associated Press Business Writer.

Associated Press Business Writer.
NEW YORK. April 2-"Business
as usual" has been yielding TO war
economy in spots, as in the squeeze
on aluminium, zinc, machine tools
and nickel for consumer goods
production.
But as industry goes into the Sec
ond quarter at top speed, many
business observers expect the pro-
duction machine to continue
through the spring, anyway, serving
up the butter" with the growing
output of guns.
One great qualification usually is
made in that line of approach to
the industrial outlook-if Uncle Sam
does not get into the fray with both
feet. Seizure of italian, German
and Danish ships over the week end
moved many Wall Streeters to re-
call April has been an historic
month for the United States to get
into wars.
With the momentum already at
tanned in gearing peacetime industry
to war tasks, the shift to "all-out"
effort for war apparently could be
made rather quickly. Presumably
declaration of war, or incidents lead
ing to actual fighting on the seas.
would open ocean supply lines to
attack and so lead to earlier than
expected application Of rationing to
such imported materials as rubber
and tin
Inventories Increased.
Record-smashing consumption of
basic raw materials in the first three
months of this year appeared to have
been due partly to accumulation of
inventories against the time when
business as usual" bows on a wider
front to rising war industry.
Quite obviously, analysts say, the
record-scale use of rubber, textile
fibers, metals in recent months pre-
sents a good deal of foresighted
stocking of manufacturers shelves
and dealers inventories.
Even assuming Uncle Sam sticks
to the role of running an arsenal
Of democracy" rather than joining
outright the European slugfest, the
increasing demands of defense in
dustry are expected to require a
shift of materials, man power and
executive personnel to new arms
plants.
The automotive industries are re-
garded as the main reservoir OF
manufacturing skill likely to be
tapped for war plants after the
spring production campaign is over
Fortunately for motor makers, the
peak need for man power to run
new airplane motor. assembly and
parts factories is scheduled to come
after mid-year and in 1912, pro-
viding defense spending plans are
unchanged.
Unemployment Watched.
For the real ,tip-off on the timing
of more drastic Federal curb on
business as usual" some practiced
eyes are watching the figures on
unemployment.
These have been in down trend
for the past year. February De-
partment of Labor figures showed
factory employment at the highest
on record for the month. Still va
rious sources estimate unemployed
at upward of 100000, without
specifying how many of these are
"unemployable" even in an acute
shortage Of manpower.
Manufacturers are able to turn
to substitutes for many materials
as shortages develop, but man power
eventually may become a real
bottleneck as new shipyards, mu-
nitions plants, aircraft factories and
supply sources speed into full pro-
duction for United States and Brit
ish requirements.
At the rate idle workers have
been absorbed into industry since
defense spending climbs from $780,
900 900 monthly last spring to $780,
900 900 now. some authorities cal
culate the best of the remaining
labor supply will be OF the market
by the end of this year. The huge
untitled orders let by Government
spenders hardly have been attacked
by production managers yet.
Retailers are braced for bang.
up Easter trade this month. Nearly
everything is moving their way
national income. factory pay rolls
| seasonal demand for goods with tht
arrival of spring weather and buy.
ing by those who want to beat the
gun on possible boost In prices.