Evening star., 1940-07-17
Cotton Growers Face
Unfavorab|e Export
Situation

Situation
improvement in Domestic
Business Is Major
Strengthening Foctor
BY J. G. DONLEY.
released by Consolidated News Fea.urss.)
NEW YORK, July 17-Cotton
naturally attracts more attention at
this time Of year because as one
season ends another is about to
begin. The cotton year runs from
August to July 81 and all statisti-
cal information conforms to the So
called crop year."
The outlook is not bright for the
new season, If we take it from the
latest monthly crop comment from
the Bureau of Agricultural eco
nomics. which says: Cotton grow
ers, soon to harvest a new crop, face
an unfavorable export situation.
Principal strengthening factor is the
prospect of improved domestic busi-
ness conditions during the last half
OF this year. Domestic cotton mill
activity has increased some from the
low point in late May. and current
ly Is at a higher rate than it was
last summer"
In an earlier release, the B. A. E.
pointed out that, if great Britain
succeeds in preventing shipments
to the areas now under German and
italian control, practically all of
continental Europe will be lost as
an export market for an indefinite
period. Belgium, Holland, France
and Italy, now included in the
blockaded area. utilized $500, 900
bales Of cotton in each of the two
years prior to the beginning of the
war last September" the B. A. E.
estimates.
Mill Forwardings Up.
For the cotton year now drawing
to close the figures on the demand
side OF the ledger are more en-
couraging than otherwise. With
only two and one-half weeks of the
l939-40 season to be heard from,
there has been an increase of 1885,
600 bales in forwardings of domestic
cotton to mills of the United States,
as compared with the like period
OF the previous season.
Total forwardings to our mills up
to the end Of last week, as reported
by the New York Cotton Exchange.
have amounted to 7,517,000 bales.
That Is the heaviest movement on
the domestic mills since the 1867
season, which was a record one for
cotton on a number of counts.
Since the war began, complete
figures have not been available on
torWaruings of American cotton to
foreign mills, but figures on exports
to date make good reading. Total
exports have amounted to 6,O38 900
bales, as compared with only $685.
600 bales at the corresponding stage
OF last season-an increase of 2,74O.-
600 bales. But it is an unfortunate
TACT that the increase in exports
during the season drawing TO a
close Is not to be set down as so
much gain in foreign consumption
OF American cotton. In large part it
has been due to the building up cf
port stocks in Great Britain and on
the continent, necessitated by the
drawing down of such stocks to alb
normally low levels during previous
seasons.
The cotton problem is accentuated
by the fact that the loss of
blockaded European markets has
come as the climax Of a period of
years during which the share of
American cotton in total war con-
sumption of all cotton has been
dwindling. And we have lost our
grip on foreign markets at a time
when total world consumption of all
cotton has been rising to new all
time high records. Previous to the
1885 season, for instance, the
world had never consumed as much
as 26,OO0 900 bales in any one season.
But for the past four seasons, total
world consumption of all cotton has
averaged slightly more than 28, $780,
600 bales per season.
Foreign Staple Helped.
What has happened is that foreign
grown cotton has reaped the benefit
OF increasing world consumption.
In the 1938-39 season, for instance,
world consumption of 1921 600
bales of American cotton was less
than per cent of the total world
consumption of 28,518,0O0 bales of
all cotton, with foreign growths ac-
counting for more than 60 per cent.
Back in the good old days for our
cotton growers, when the world used
only about 5000, 900 bales of all cot
ton annually, the proportions were
reversed, with American cotton fill
ing 90 per cent Of the worlds needs,
and foreign growths content to sup
ply the 40 per cent.
Although our own consumption Of
American cotton set new all-time
high record during the 1867 sea-
son, it has yet to push above the
5000, ,000-bale mark. Unless we are
going to scale down our production
drastically, therefore, ways and
means must be found to increase
our domestic use of cotton by at
L.