Evening star., 1940-01-06

Germans accepted these terms with
tongue in cheek, confident that, II
war was avoided, they would con-
tinue to dominate the Baltic: If the
war was lost, it did not matter, and,
If they won the war, they would still
be stronger than the Russians.
Soviet's Ultimate Aims Failed.
So the Russians, without fighting,
acquired Eastern Poland and brought
the three small Baltic states into
their orbit-as bridges to the west
or as barriers against Germany.
Who can say? But the Soviet at
tempt to do the same with Finland
was wrecked on the stubborn
patriotism of the Firms, and the
war now raging marks the failure
not only of Russia's immediate
plans but of the Kremlin's ultimate
designs.
In some Baltic circles 1t is thought
that Germany is not i'll pleased to
see the Russians attack Finland, be-
cause that might embroil the u. S.
S. r. with the allies and thus bring
about a military alliance between
Germany and the U. S. S. r. If the
Russians continue the war with no
greater success than heretofore, it
is likely they will invoke German
assistance, which would reverse the
position and put the obligation on
the side Of the U. S. S. r., to Ger
many's advantage. Thus recent rev
ports in the German press that
Turkey is contemplating action
against the Soviet oil fields may be
the prelude to German-inspired
pressure of the U. S. S. r. upon
Turkey against the allies.
It was pretty clear from the out
set that the Kremlin was ready
enough to see the allies and Ger
many fight each other to a standstill,
but wished to maintain its own army
intact. Unfortunately-from the
Soviet point of view-the Finnish
adventure-begun doubtless as ad-
ditional protection against Ger
many-increases the chances that
Germany may obtain a measure of
Soviet military cooperation that
earlier could hardly have been ex-
pected.
Economically, 1t looked-on paper
as If Germany had won access to
the vast resources Of the U. s. s. r.
But much Of the Soviet wealth is
still potential-the Soviet demand
for its own products exceeds the
available supply-and the transport
difficulties are great. Iron, man.
ganese, crude oil, cotton, grain
these Germany might obtain, but
it Is significant that Russo Baltic
trade has increased and Russia Is
paying for some purchases here In
valuta, namely dollars.
Trade Pool Being Worked Out.
These states, too, now receive
Russian cotton, coal and oil, and
repay with foodstuffs. of which Ger
many had expected to get the lions
share. There even is being worked
out here a sort of pooling trade
arrangement between the U. s. S. r
and the Baltic states whereby they
can buy and sell abroad on COM
mon account. If put into practice
this would conflict with the German
program. which the Germans hope
to extend to Scandinavia and even
Holland, of making the northern
neutrals reduce their business with
England to a minimum and trade
exclusively with Germany.
Moreover, the U. S. S. R. is actu-
ally carrying on or beginning trade
negotiations. In addition to the
coal and oil imports to the Baltic
from the U. S. S. r., there is new
trade in shale rock for fuel between
Estonia and Latvia, which tends to
break the half-Nelson hold that
Germany had on the latter through
control of coal deliveries once the
English supply was cut of.
All of which looks as If 1t were
rather rivalry than friendship be-
tween Germany and the U. S. S. r
in the economic field, and the Boil
sheviks always declare that eco
nomics dominates politics.
To sum up. it seems to be the
view of the best-informed quarters
here that the Russo-German reia-
tions are much less warm and close
than Germany would have the rest
of the world believe. but that much
depends upon the progress of the
war in Finland, where circum-
stances may compel the Russians to
play the German game far more
than was originally intended.