Evening star., 1940-02-11


the Pacific has not reached the spectacu-
lar stage, it does not mean that it is not
fraught with almost unfathomable dan
gers. High-ranking Washington on
cials are following the situation with
keen interest and little understanding.
Hence the cautious attitude of the re-
sponsible officials who don't know the
answers" No comment on what may
happen in Japan is made and no pre-
diction ventured. But it is freely ad-
mitted that there are elements in the
Japanese internal situation which might
set of the fuse to the Pacific bomb.
The observers of the Far Eastern sit
uation in Washington are divided into
two groups: The optimists and the pessi-
mists. The optimists maintain that the
present increase in prestige of the army
clique is temporary matter. Because
of the severe economic strain on Japa-
nese big business and the middle classes
there is dissatisfaction with the present
regime. Another jolt to Japan's eco
nomic structure would see the doom of
military rule and the Inauguration of an
era of liberal government with the prin-
cipal aim the improvement of American
Japanese relations.
At present there are no definite indi-
cations that this is likely to happen soon.
But political situations in the Nipponese
Empire can not always be judged by
outward signs. The moral effect of the
abrogation of the American-Japane
treaty of commerce may be the swan
song of the army domination of Japan.
May Add to Burden.
To hasten the downfall of the military
who have upset the balance of power in
the Far East, Senator Key Pittman and
his friends are urging immediate retalia-
tory measures against Japan, such as
substantial increase in duties and pos
sibly an embargo on certain products the
japanese need desperately from this
country. Without these, it is said, the
abrogation of the 1911 treaty will be
just another empty gesture-one of the
many we have made in the last five
years. But let Japan feel the full weight
at time when she cannot obtain from
the warning European countries raw ma
terials vital to her industries. Heroic
speeches and empty victories against
Chang Kai-shek will not make it pos
sible for the Osaka and Yokohama
plants to continue. Under economic
pressure the Japanese people will begin
to realize the folly of aggression and
Wi ,f,,o 111,e 10
of government which will fully under
stand its responsibility and the iAnpl-
cations of stepping on international
treaties with a heavy military boot.
The optimists refuse to be flustered by
the obvious unwillingness of the Japa-
nese Diet and organs of public opinion
to embrace the cause of moderation on
the Asiatic mainland" Radical change
of policy which has been popular since
1881 cannot be achieved in few weeks
But let the American refusal to deal with
Japan be really felt and the shift will
occur in shorter time than is generally
expected.
Pessimists in Majority.
The pessimists are in the majority who
are not so convinced of the favorable
effects of Americas economic pressure
on Japan. They believe that Japan's
destiny will remain in the hands of the
aggressive group of young officers and
politicians until it is fulfilled, or their
plans smashed to smithereens by COM
plete military and economic defeat.
\, For the time being, however, they
think it most unlikely that any mani
festation such as the United States has
made will change the course of events.
The reasonable" men of Japan are
silenced. When men like Takao Saito
dare to lift their voices publicly to ask,
'Where are we going?" they are stif1ed
by the opprobrium of public opinion
or by more drastic methods
The official pessimists believe that the
effect of any tightening of the trade
situation between this country and
Japan either by increased duties or by
virtual embargoes, will drive Japan to
conquer new fields where she can find
the raw materials she is now buying
here. And these new fields, the jap
anese have told us and the rest of the
world, lie in the South Pacific-the
Dutch East Indies: Java, Sumatra and
North Borneo.