Evening star., 1940-12-15
Next Six Months a
FotefuI Period
BIZ Owen L. Scott.

creased aid that she may need but Adolf
Hitler can be expected to make his su-
preme effort to gain victory.
This country's military and naval OBJ
servers in London are nervous over to-
days situation. However, they remain
confident that Great Britain will weather
those months and then will gain strength
as the resources of the United States are
brought more fully to bear on the prob
lem of war production. During the Sec
ond half Of 1941-f Germany has been
unable to get decision-the tide may
turn as result of American and British
effort.
This means that Hitler's biggest gam
BILE probably will be made before next
summer. That gamble can be successful
only II it overcomes the British on their
island The gamble must involve at
tempted invasion If it is to give Hitler
his objective-avoidance of long war
in which American aid can be decisive.
The United States really holds the key
to the wars outcome.
But the United States cannot turn
that key for many months to come. The
reason Is that this country still has a
long way to 60 before 1t can give the
British those war materials they most
need Britain will be lucky to get $50
warplanes during December. Even this
relatively small total represents the bulk
of the military craft of a combat type
produced in this country. With luck
and intense effort that monthly total
ha roic IN b1y,
can then represent very important
help to Britain.
Somewhat the same situation prevails
in merchant ships The United States is
building high-class, large and speedy
type of merchant ship for its own mer-
chant marine. Construction is slow and
facilities for expanded production are
lacking The British need ships in a
hurry and cannot wait for a year or
more to get action. Under the circum-
stances, the most that can be done here :
is to help Britain arrange for assembly.
line production Of merchant ships for
the longer pull and then scrape bottom
to provide her with ships on hand.
Eighty-tWo ships of conquered nations,
commandeered for one cause or another
and turned over to the British. There
are SO old World War vessels that can
be put in shape and sold.
These ships, however, would cover
British sea losses for only about two
months at the present rate of destruc-
ton. This centers the problem on ship
losses. To cut those losses the British
need more patrol boats-destroyers and
flying boats. The United States has
turned over so destroyers, but the need
Is much greater than that Another 100
destroyers might turn the trick. Yet the
transfer of any such total of these high
ly important vessels from the American
fleet would obviously weaken that fleet
at time when Navy officers think, it
should not be weakened This raises the
following question: Should the United
States undertake to police the waters in
the western half of the Atlantic by using
its present neutrality patrol to convoy
merchant ships. thereby releasing British
destroyers for convoy work in the east
ern half Of the ocean?
Under the old rules such a move would
mean war Actually, however, there is
little practical difference between oper-
ating destroyers with American crews
and turning those destroyers over to the
British to- be operated by British crews
Germany made no objection when the
United States provided Britain with so
destroyers. In fact, nobody knows what
Is war and what is not war in today's
world. 1t was not war when German
and Italian submarines sank British mer-
chant ships during the Spanish civil war,
and it was not war when Germany sent
her air force and mechanical columns
to practice on Spaniards during that
same war
AS result, there obviously are many
things the United States can do short of
war If this country wants to and is able
to do them.
The big point is that, except for uses
try is not able to do many things either
in war or short of war that will help the
British decisively during the next six
months After that, with well directed
effort in the meantime, the story will
be much different. Hitler, however, is
giving no assurance that he will wait six
months.
Instead the German air force is at
tacking one port city and industrial city
in England after another. These at
tacks are interfering seriously with
British production. Interference with
production reduces the number of
fighter aircraft that can be turned out
each month. Planes that are not pro-
duced are just as much lost as planes
that are shot down. The United States
Is not yet filling the gap and will not fill
it for number of months. A few of
the aircraft that this country has pro-
duced have been sunk at sea with the
ships on which they were being car
ried. So here is another hazard. Long
range bombers can be flown to Britain,
but fighter ships cannot
Hitler's obvious intent is to wear down
the British air force and then to try to
gain an ascendancy in the air over Brit
ain. If he succeeds in gaining that as
cendancy he will venture an invasion.
If he fails, he still may try an invasion,
but, without air ascendancy, his chance
of success will be SLIM And, if he fails
the United States will be coming up
strong to turn the wars whole direction