Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-11-29
Fast 1910 Activity
Is Just a Mirage
For Speculation
Market Psychology
Changed Greatly by
Federal Controls
BY PAUL ID. GESNER,
Associated Press Financial Writer.


NEW YORK, Nov. 29.-The simon
pure speculator, the fellow who buys
and sells things just to profit
through the price swing, has had
comparatively lean pickings this year
despite the great stimulus given to
markets by one of the greatest in
dustrial revivals in history.
Manufacturers and jobbers have
had to accumulate large supplies Of
materials to anticipate a mounting
demand for finished goods necessary
to the national defense program, for
export to Great Britain and for
civilian home consumption.
Ordinarily the buying for an in
dustrial expansion of such magni-
tude would be expected to open rich
pastures for spectators smart
enough to sense the buying currents
for accurate Interpretation of the
price trends.
Speculation Handcuffed.
But this year the speculator has
been handcuffed by forces beyond
his control, and far from hearing
stories of large winnings by daring
operations in markets, one is more
likely to hear in commodity circles
the lament that 1910 will be remem-
bered as the year in which rising
prices and expanding markets were,
to the speculator, just a mirage.
Men who are familiar with the
workings of markets say there are
several reasons for the restrictions
and limitations which have been
clamped upon ambitious spectators
up to this time.
One Of the more important may
be summed up thus: The psychology
Of markets and buyers and sellers
has undergone pronounced change
since the Federal Government be-
gan to keep a monitorial eye on rises
and falls in prices.
Buyer More Confident.
The effect of this supervision as
an established Government policy
would naturally tend to develop
some inhibitions in the out and out
spectators. according to observers.
But its influence goes beyond the
speculator 1t tends to make the
buyer who buys for consumption feel
that markets, being in a sense under
the protecting wing of the Govern
ment. are safe from too aggressive
interest on the part of the specu-
lator.
SO the real buyer forgets all about
the old laws of the market place
which operated in the days of rug
ged individualism" and declines to
engage in bidding duelS with the
traders who only go in for paper
transactions.
1t has taken several years to bring
about this transition, but close OBJ
servers contend that the 1910 flow
of buying and selling orders for
either spot or future delivery has
shown very little of the frenetic
surges which were a familier &C
compartment Of upward business
spirals in the past.
Traders in Wall Street commodity
circles still carry painful memories
of the happenings in the spring of
1887 when a boom in commodities,
touched off by widespread labor
difficulties and fears of shipment
delays, was abruptly iquidated by
sharp warnings from Washington.
Government Is Alert.
The relatively small rise in COM
modify prices since industrial pro-
duction started its rapid climb to-
ward record levels has been a sub
ject for frequent comment in busi-
ness circles. Those who think they
know the answer believe that Gov
eminent watchfulneSs and the un-
written law which frowns upon ex-
cessive speculation when country
faces serious crisis, must be con-
sidered important factors.
The question as to the size of
present inventories carried by manu-
facturers is as hard to answer as it
ever was. Most authorities who
study this phase of the business
picture are of the opinion that stored
stocks of raw and semi finished ma
terials are large and that they have
been increasing at fairly high
rate for the last several months.
Those who are given to worrying
over what might unexpectedly hap
pen could perhaps find ground for
pessimistic speculation on the in
ventory question if out of the nebu-
lous peace rumors that have been
lately they could conceive
a prospect for an ending of the
war within the next SIX months or