Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-10-29

principle of security, they exposed
no vital German interest to counter
attack. The one exception was
Norway, which was a real gamble
from the German viewpoint and
might have turned out very badly
for them had they failed. Greece
Is just such gamble for Italy.
If Italy succeeds in reducing
Greece, the axis gains will be:
l. A much better naval position
in the Eastern Mediterranean, with
greater opportunity for protecting
the line of communications of the
Italian army in Libya.
2. The opportunity for bringing
greater and more direct pressure on
Turkey.
g. Transformation of the isolated
Italian positions in the Dodecanese
into bases for air and naval opera
tons which can be strongly sup
ported and reinforced.
4. Complete surrounding of Yugo-
slavia by the possession of the Port
of Salonika.
5. For Italy military success to
enhance Italian prestige.
A Chance for England.
But Italy, in attacking Greece, has
set a stake on the board Greece
may become "a pistol pointed at the
head of Egypt" Greece may just
as easily become a British bridge
head in Southeastern Europe.
If the italian attack fails, il
British forces become established
in Greece or in parts of Greece,
including the Greek Islands, the
results might be:
/. Stiffening of Turkeys attitude
and perhaps entry of Turkey into
the war.
2. Surrounding and probable loss
of the italian bases in the Dode-
canese Islands.
3. Enormous improvements of the
British naval position, especially as
regards the Taranto-Benghazi line
of communications, the main supply
route of the Italian army in Libya.
4. Direct air threat to the whole
south of the Italian pensinsula, in
GLIDING not only Rome and Naples,
but the vital naval and embarkat ton
-se at laramie
s. of Italian prestige with
possible int repercussions, and
possibly also the wing of the
axis into a long winter npaign
in the Balkans with unpredictable
results.
Soviet Among ImpOnderables.
Since these possibilities must have
been well weighed in Axis councils,
and since the difficulties in the way
of the italian Army must have been
well known, it follows that we may
assume that the German military
establishment in Rumania is not
there for show purposes and that
pressure upon Bulgaria to give 1t
passage through that country may
be expected. Here they enter into
this estimate of the situation certain
imponderables. First, will Bulgaria
yield or even join the the axis?
She is ambitious for certain Greek
territory-her window on the Aege-
an German influence has been
busy in Sofia, promising this and
other benefits. But for many years
Russian influence has likewise been
active in Bulgaria, which is Slav
country. Will Russia now throw
her secret influence toward per-
hitting a further German advance
toward the Dardanelles? 1t is diff
cult to believe, but it is possible.
With Stain, all things are possible.
Second, what will the attitude Of
Turkey be?
AS to this, which is of vital i'm
portance, the indications last night
seemed to suggest that Turkey will
not move unless attacked From
the military point of view, her de-
fensive positions, both the line of
the frontier and the famous Cha
talja positions behind it, covering
Istanbul, are tremendously strong
A Turkish army advancing on Sofia
would risk the cutting of it's COM
munications by the Germans push
ing south from Rumania across the
bridge they are reporting con-
structing over the Danube at Rust