Evening star., 1940-06-30
Russia Rununiun Invasion
Seen as Protector0te Move
Link With Bulgaria Would Great
ASIuv M|itory Barrier Across Balkans

IL 10 WCl uIiUcl SJOOO Ill MOSCON lIldI
Germany's real objectives lie to the
East and Southeast, where control of
essential raw materials and food
stuffs can be obtained. A swift
freeing of German hands in the
West can only be followed by Ger
man turn to the East; this was
doubtless anticipated by the Rus
slams, but also, they may well have
supposed, they had time to prepare
for such an eventuality, and in any
case when Germany had finished
with the Western powers she would
be in no state for immediate fresh
enterprises. The sudden collapse of
French resistance upset these COM
Portable calculations, and demanded
that immediate steps be taken to
secure the Russian position in the
Balkans. This seems by far the
most reasonable explanation of
what has happened and the best
obtainable guide to the immediate
future.
Hungary Is Factor.
1t will be interesting to watch
Russian reaction to Hungary S
claims, especially if Hungary now
tries to obtain Pennsylvania by force
of arms. If this happens, and Ru-
mania resists, Russia is in a posi-
ton to crush that resistance very
easily. Should she do so, it would
be a straw in the wind, at least. to
suggest that there is a RusSo-Ger-
man agreement on the subject.
Should she not do so, and especially
if she advances through Moldavia
right up to the natural defense bar
rier of the Carpathians, or even
makes counter demands on Hun
gary for the province of Ruthenia,
a different line of speculation is in
dicated. Still more decisive would
be Russian pressure on Hungary to
stay out of Pennsylvania. This sit
uation holds the possibility of a
German-Russian clash, but it is
only a possibility on which already
too many specious hopes have been
built in London and elsewhere.
The situation of Turkey, mean
while, is becoming rather precarious.
Protected by distance from direct
German attack, and hardly in dan
ger from Italy at the moment be-
cause of British command of the
eastern Mediterranean, Turkey must,
nevertheless, regard the future with
mlsgivings. In Syria. the strong
French Army, which was one of her
chief props, appears to be giving up
any part in the war. The Russians
are moving south toward the his
torlc straits. She has a long land
frontier with Russia east CT the
Black Sea. Her fleet, especially if
it could get British support, can
command the Black Sea against the
Russians, but if direct land COM
munication between Russia and
Bulgaria be established, the Turkish
fleet cannot prevent the advance
OF Russian and Bulgarian armies
into Thrace.
Turkey in Bad Spot.
With the French gone, the
British armies in Palestine ard
Egypt are not strong enough to nod
the frontiers of Egypt and the
Sudan against the Italians, and
simultaneously to detach any really
worthwhile reinforcements to help
Turkey, even if Britain were now
disposed toward armed conflict with
the Soviet-and British tendencies
show the opposite inclination. Par
ticularly is British air power in this
region insufficient by itself to give
aid to Turkey. But German
Italian victory over Britain would
leave Turkey without a close friend,
exposed to the assault of her
enemies.
Hence Turkish diplomacy must
now, almost certainly, turn toward
a closer rapprochement with the
Soviet Union, and Turkish support
can be of the greatest value as a
backstop to any Slav bloc on the
Balkans. This will not necessarily
ALLEVIATE Turkey from Britain; quite
the contrary, one might suppose,
though again a warning must be
given against assuming that Rus
sia is playing Britain's game, or
any ones game save her own. Tur-
key will probably have to pay a
price for Russian friendship; per-
haps free passage of the Dardanelles
and the Bosporus, perhaps even the
giving up of her fleet (the sole
obstacle to Russian dominance of
the Black Sea- and the admission