Evening star., 1940-03-31
soys Allies MIST
Force War Issue
By ODen L. Scott.

All previous ideas about the character
and the course of Europe's war now are
being recast by the policy forming off,
cia]s of this Government. For the first
time since war began, these officials are
able to plan with Some assurance con-
corning its underlying strategy and the
relationship Of this strategy to American
problems.
On the basis Of conclusions now being
reached. the President should be able to
shape all political plans. Industry can
begin to get line on the probable VOL
ume Of war orders, and the public can
have little more understanding of what
Is going on In Europe. AL idea that the
war is "phony" should be discarded.
The strange appearance of what has
happened to date grows out Of one cause.
That is the complete reversal Of Ger
man strategy as that strategy had been
appraised by the British and French.
The reversal caught the allies of guard
and is creating for them definite prob
lem that must be faced. The internal
political situations In both France and
Britain grow out of gradual realization
of the change and of the new difficulties
that must be faced.
Everybody outside of Germany. in
Guiding the allies and the highest officials
Of this Government, expected that the
British blockade of the Germans would
force that nation to launch a vast Of
fensive in the west designed to break
through and overwhelm the allies before
German industry and the German people
starved. The idea was that Britain and
France could sit back and do no more
than get set for a defensive war. All Of
the weapons that were cast, including
airplanes, emphasized defense rather
than offense.
And what has happened?
Hitler has turned his back upon the
west and has faced east. He appears to
have made up his mind that the differ
ences between this war and the last war
are going to. enable Germany to beat the
British blockade and to establish assured
lines Of supply before turning to the
west for real showdown. This is a
gamble, but it is gamble that, to date,
is working and is coming gradually to be
understood by the allies. It now seems
obvious to them that the Germans are
going to content themselves with subma-
rine and airplane attacks on shipping
while perfecting their economic organi-
zation and penetrating into the Balkans
and into Russia for supplies.
This means that Hitler is convinced
that time is on his side, just as the allies
had concluded that time was on their
side. The result is a slow war on land,
but one that is nonetheless serious.
But who is right. Hitler or the allies?
X X
The answer is, on the basis of reports
that make strong impress on this Gov
ernment's officials. that the allies cannot
starve out the Germans by cutting their
food supplies, that the blockade prob
lem in this war is totally different from
that in the last war when Germany was
hemmed in by enemies, that there is
coming to be real doubt whether the
allies will be able to prevent the Ger
mans from finding new sources OF vitahy
needed industrial raw materials unless
they can strike at those sources soon.
At this point there enters the matter
of the Finnish war. the position OF Italy
and the situation of Russia.
Germany has two vital deficiencies
iron ore and oil. Iron ore comes from
Sweden So long as the Finnish war con-
tinued there was the chance that the
allies might move into Sweden and might
cut off this line of supply. That ex-
plains why Germany threatened to over
run Sweden If that nation permitted the
British and French to move across its
territory to the aid of Finland. The end
of the war in the Scandinavian area
enables Germany to forget about that
flank at least temporarily. 1t also en-
ables her to feel assured about her ore
supply and her supply of nickel and tim
ber from Finland.
That leaves oil. The needed oil sup
plies can be found in Rumania and In
Russia if those nations will permit Its
exploitation and transport. The prob
lem of Britain and France is to interfere
with this exploitation and transport.
Their job is to stir up trouble in the
Balkan area that would occupy both Rus
sia and Germany. But before the allies
can stir up trouble, with assurance that
they can see it through, they must know
the attitude of Italy because the Italians
might otherwise suddenly cut their COM
munications through the Mediterranean.
The Germans want italy to remain neu-
train order to avoid creating front
on Germany's southern flank. They also
want italy to be friendly and to hold
constant threat over Britain and France.
There is realization Of this changed
situation on the part of the British. The
London Economist calls attention to the
fact that If the British Navy is not going
to be able to starve out the Germans
then the whole strategy and problem of
the war changes. Other publications call
attention to the fact that in this war
the British blockade really is only 100
per cent effective along 120-mile front
in GERMANY. inasmuch as the Germans