Evening star., 1940-04-12

Charles G. Ross. one of the II
writers who gave the Vice President
their first-choice votes in April 1899,
would do so today. The synthetic
candidacy of Cactus Jack" has
faded completely out of the picture.
If there is any one certain thing
about the Democratic nominating
convention, it is that Mr.. Garner
will be passed over.
1t ought to be added that the
"preview' which put Mr.. Garner at
the top of the heap was altered in
a short time. Newsweek polled the
same correspondents in Novem-
ber, 1899, and got the consensus that
President Roosevelt was the likeliest
Democratic nominee. Paul v. Nc
mutt ran second, Cordell Hull third
and Mr., Garner fourth In both
polls, Jim Farley won the call as
the most probable vice presidential
nominee.
G. o. P. Favorites Shift.
Among the Republicans, Thomas
E. Dewey and Senator Taft ran
neck-and-neck in the balloting a
year ago. with Dewey having a slight
edge But notice: Six months later
the survey showed Senator Vanden.
berg we'll in the lead, Taft an in
different second and Dewey a bad
third
If another poll should be held now,
on top OF the impressive victories
scored by Dewey over Vandenberg
in the Wisconsin and Nebraska pri-
maries and the substantial vote
rolled up by the New Yorker in Illi-
nois. where he was unopposed, tho
result would be greatly different.
We are closer to the nominations
now, and back of us are the signifi-
cant Middle Western primary tests,
but forecasting of the outcome in
either party remains dangerous.
Two facts, however, have become
clear. One is that Mr. Roosevelt can
have the nomination If he wants 1t.
The only question is whether or not
ne will take it. To say this is to
indulge in perhaps tiresome repeti-
ton, and 1t is only said here because
the question is again thrust to the
front in political speculation by
the broadening and intensification
OF the war in Europe If there has
been no slackening of by the time
OF the Democratic convention, the
pressure upon the President to run
again will be tremendous. Will he
yield to this pressure? I doubt
whether even he today knows the
answer. 1t is only certain that in
this strange mad world, pending
political decisions in the United
States are tied up closely with the
war.
Dewey a Powerful Factor.
The other fact that stands out
from the general political un-
certainty is that Mr.. Dewey has
taken q commanding position in
the race for the Republican nom
lnation. He may still be beaten,
but the results in Wisconsin, Illi-
nois and Nebraska have put him
definitely in front. Whatever NAV
be the result of future pre-conven-
ton contests. he has gained a mo-
mentum that will carry him into
Philadelphia a powerful factor.
Mr.. Dewey's squirt to the forefront
OF the Republican race is not un-
related to the question of what the
President will do. For if Mr.. Dewey
IS nominated and Mr.. Roosevelt
has not by that time taken himself
out of the race in language too
strong to be overridden, the third
term advocates will press on him
the argument that he must run
IN order to keep the crucial State
OF New York from going Republican.
They will tell him, too, that he
owes it to the country, in this criti-
cal time, to do all within his power
to keep the presidency out Of the
immature hands of Mr.. Dewey. It's
at least tenable theory that the
extra pressure on the President to
be expected from the nomina ton
of Mr.. Dewey would tip the scales
in favor of a third-term race.
This, however, is to get into a
field that is strewn with pitfalls
for the prophet. There are, to re-
peat, just two salient facts to tie
to. One is the present ascendancy
OF Mr.. Dewey in the Republican
party; the other is Mr.. Roosevelt's
power to run again as the choice
OF the Democratic party. The two
1acts are Interestingly connected.