Evening star., 1940-08-01
BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT,

BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.
Once in a while in this war we
get q chance to look little way
ahead. Most of the time we are
too busy thinking about what is go
ing on to check up on what we are
going to be thinking about 80 or 60
days hence; but at this particular
moment we have a chance to do just
that-barring one eventuality. That
eventuality is a direct German at
tack on Great Britain with complete
German success. If that doesn't
happen, before very long we are
going to begin to see some results
of the sort of warfare that is now
and will continue to be in progress.
That warfare is blockade war
fare, waged under rather eXtraordi-
nary circumstances. A superior sea
power, backed by an inferior but
highly efficient air power, is block
aiding from an island, and from one
lone but commanding outpost, Gil
braltar, the sea approaches to the
entire continent of Europe, as far
as the Atlantic sea lanes are con-
cerned. That island is being itself
blockaded by aircraft operating from
the whole sweep Of continental shore
line opposite it, with the efforts OF a
superior air power supplemented by
submarines, motor torpedo boats and
other small naval craft and an oc-
casional high seas raider. Mean
while, access of the continental pow
ers to the Indian and Pacific Oceans
by any other than Atlantic routes is
absolutely barred by British possess
sion of the Suez Canal, guarded by
a feet, army and air force.
Strikes at the Heart.
This type of warfare is direct
action warfare. 1t strikes very
largely, not so much at the armed
forces of the hostile state as at the
very sources of its power, it citi-
zens and its means of production,
distribution and supply. Blockade
prevents the arrival of supplies from
exterior sources. Air attacks pre-
vent the movement of supplies within
& country, destroy the means of proc
essing them. or destroy supplies in
storage. Air power is thus most
potent ally of sea power in blockade
warfare.
Moreover, blockade is far more
terrible weapon than it used to be,
when applied to modern industrial
states. These are rarely self-suffi-
cient. They are increasingly depend
ent on the labor and materials of
industrial areas. A much great
er proportion of the citizenry has
turned from agricultural pursuits
and handicraft to highly specialized
modern industrial processes, which
are dependent on a free and world
wide flow of trade.
When blockade is imposed on
European states today, and to 1t is
added a hard winter, short har-
vest and the disorganization Incl
dent to warfare and to the mobil-
ization of millions of men in non
productive activities the results may
we'll be of a nature to beggar the
imagination of the blackest peSsi-
mist. When, on top of that, is added
the disruptive effect of air power on
those mechanical means of produc-
ton and communication upon which
modern civilization has come to de-
pend, so that these means are con-
stantly interrupted, are destroyed bit
by bit and their reconstruction pre-
vented or hampered, the result may
well be complete, if temporary,
chaos. This result will, of course, be
reached by degrees, not all at once.
In this struggle, always providing
there is no successful blitzkrieg
against Great Britain, it would
seem from an examination OF the
progress of the war so far that
Britain is likely to win. The Ger
mans have not displayed any abil-
ity seriously to interfere with Brit
ish conveys. The German air force
has not overwhelmed the British
air force, and adding a great deal
of guesswork to the very scanty in
formation available it seems prob
able that the British air raids on
Germany are doing more damage
in proportion to the number of
bomber -hours flown than the Ger
man air raids on Britain.
Germans Hinged by Sea.
There is no question that the
Germans are completely cut off
from all supplies by sea, while at
the same time the royal navy ap-
pears adequate to the task of get
ting the supplies safely to port.
1t seems likely that in the end
Britain, bleeding and battered, but
grinly hanging on, will have that
last weeks food of which Mr.
Churchill spoke as the criterion of
final victory, the last weeks sup
plies for her war industry, when
Germany and her continental pup
pet states are at their last gasp.
The results will, of course, be cumu-
lative. AS German reserves begin
to run out, they cannot be replaced,
while Britain's can. Factories over
the sea and beyond the reach of
German bombers can manufacture
airplanes for Britain, while Germany
has no such resources. The same
is true of the human material. The
young men of the dominions are
focking to training centers in Can
ada. where they are being turned
into pilots ard air mechanics in
undisturbed peace and quiet.
But the cost of all this inhuman
suffering will be terrible. Already
Spanish and Dutch pigs and poul-
try are being slaughtered for lack
of feed, already Germany is report
ed holding up Switzerland at pis-
tolls point to obtain Swiss reserves
Of grain and oil, already French
foodstuffs are being requisitioned by
Frances German overlords, while
French prisoners of war are being
thrust across the frontier for the
Petain government to feed. These