Evening star., 1940-11-03
Roosevelt Holds
Big Advantage
By ODen L. Scott.


is this: Wendell willkie. in opposition,
had to win too much. The Republican
candidate started under a great handi-
cap Of electoral votes sewed up in ad-
vance by the Democratic candidate.
This factor has caused the President
to count upon success in his third-term
effort as a foregone conclusion. Like
wise. this factor can raise grave ques-
tions concerning the prospect that a
President. once in once and armed with
the vastly expanded powers Of that ONCE.
might hold power indefinitely.
The country has known ever since the
CivH War that there is . solid Demo-
cratic vote in the South. Through all
adversely, the Democratic party has
found strength in this fact Today that
vote of the solid South accounts for 1l3
votes in the electoral college out of the
266 votes that are necessary to elect q
President. In addition. there are States
like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Kentucky and
West Virginia which almost always are
Democratic and add II more to the total
upon which Democratic candidate can
usually count. This means 154 votes of
266 needed.
Here enters another election factor,
often overlooked, but now of great i'm
portance This factor is the shift of the
Far West from traditional Republicanism
to what is beginning to look like solid
Democracy. The New Deal, with its
vast power and pump printing projects,
has influenced this shift. It's importance
is found in the fact that California,
Washington, Oregon, Montana, Utah,
Nevada and Arizona have So electoral
votes. When these votes are added to
the 154 votes of the solid South and of
the most strongly Democratic among the
border States, there are 206 votes with
which President Roosevelt really enters
the campaign.
The task from there on out is to win
bare so votes from among the 325 in
which there is a real contest. These 325
votes are those that remain out of 53l
in the electoral college when Mr.. Roose-
velt's 2o6 are taken away. A majority Of
the 531 is 266-needed to win.
The President and his hackers have
figured that it is relatively easy to pick
up the needed so votes among States like
Missouri and Maryland and New Jersey
with 80 votes that normally are Demo-
cratic, added to the votes of one or two
other States that might come in by de-
fault or otherwise to turn the trick.
Michigan with 10 and Idaho with would
yield the % votes, which, added to the
80, would give 81. Or Massachusetts, with
II and Colorado with would do it. So
would Pennsylvania SO alone or New
York's Al, or Illinois 29 There are very
many combinations that could be worked
out to give President Roosevelt q third
term. without figuring in the Middle
West farm belt or even the biggest East
ern States.
Mr.. Willkie, as the Republican candi-
date, has had no such simple task. His
only backlog to start with was that Of 8
votes in Maine and Vermont. o.. From
there on out it has been battle all of
the way The solid South proved impos-
sible to dent. The border States turned
out to be difficult. The Far West was
interested, but revealed what looked like
a determination to stay inside the party
that offered so much in the way of public
projects. This left the campaign to be
fought out in the industrial States and
In the farm belt.
The Republicans had dificulty with
the labor votes in the industrial States.
They have been hopeful that the sup
port of John L. Lewis would split the
labor vote more evenly. Whether that
hope is justified remains to be seen.
Another Republican difficulty, not
often noticed, is found in the fact that
the Republican party since 1920 has
until 1940-shown few signs of growth.
The total Republican vote for President
from the days Of Harding to the days OF
Landon fluctuated around $4,000 900 or
100000 votes except for one incursion
when the solid South broke on the re-
ligious and prohibition issue in 1928 to
give Hoover more than 10000 900 votes.
The Democratic vote in this period
ranged from under 100000 to 81 10000
1t was necessary for the Republicans in
1910 to cut deeply into this popular
strength for Roosevelt.
Despite the Presidents optimism, there
is a chance that Willkie will be able to
overcome his handicaps and turn in
landslide of electoral votes that will
sweep every State in the North from
Nebraska eastward. This sweep is
necessary to victory. If it comes it will
come on the basis of three issues.
One is conscription. Both candidates
favored CONSUMPTION. But Mr.. Roose-
velt is the man who bears responsibility
for its peacetime application. Regard
less of the merits OF this issue, the now
obvious fact is that many votes-particu-
larly in the lower income groups where
the Presidents strength Is greatest-do
not take kindly to the idea of having
sons drafted into the Army. Many young
voters may readily be resentful of the
prospect that they now may have to
give up jobs and to interrupt their nor
NAL lives to 60 to camp for q year. The
effect Of this issue cannot be measured
until the votes are counted.
A second Of the issues that are cut
ting across income group lines Is that Of
possible war. In spite Of all assurances
to the contrary, there is an uneasy feel
ing that this country is edging close to
warfare and again, it Is the man In office
who must shoulder responsibility for
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