Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-10-13
Can Santa Claus Be Beaten?
Federal Spending Not Enough to Assure Third Term

lar vote in 1896, he has today only SAB.
This would give him, on the basis OF a
total of $4,000, 900 votes in the election,
a national plurality of around 4,25o,o0o.
That looks substantial enough, but
when you deduct from 1t the Roosevelt
plurality in Is Southern and border
States with l65 sure Roosevelt electoral
votes, you reach a figure that gives
Willkie people real ground for hope.
The Roosevelt strength, says Hurja,
is so concentrated that there is large
possibility that Willkie will obtain ma
jority of votes in the electoral college
266-on a minority of the popular vote.
He figures that Willkie can win with At
per cent Of the popular vote.
Purge Failure Recalled.
Another point which requires the
Santa Claus can't be beaten theory
to be accepted with reservations is the
fact that in 1885, notwithstanding the
great cumulative effect of the New Deal
benefactions over the previous five and
a half years, the Republicans scored
notable victory. They picked up in that
year IS State governorships to add to
their meager three, and captured 80
seats in the House from the Democrats,
raising their total to the excellent work.
ing minority of 1859.
There is also to be noted the failure
of the purge by which the President
sought to retire to private life group
of Democratic Senators who had fought
the New Deal on crucial issues: the
purge" succeeded only as to Repre-
sentative O'Connor of New York.
Again, 1t is a fact that significant Re-
publican gains have been made among
the farmers-a group which one would
suppose to have as great reason as any
other to be grateful to the administra-
ton. Recent by-elections for Congress
have shown a recession in the Roosevelt
strength in the Middle West farm belt,
and it is noteworthy that of the six
States now counted for Willkie in one
of the polls. all except two maine and
Vermont are farm States Nebraska,
North and South Dakota and Kansas.
War an Important Factor.
Certainly there was a trend against
benefactions, In 1898, and there is rea-
son to believe that this trend would
have gone on undiminished save for
one thing: the intensiflcation of the
war in the spring of this year. If any
date may be fixed for the hating OF
this trend, 1t is May 10, when the Ger
mans invaded the Low Countries Till
then the war had appealed to many
Americans, perhaps to most, as
'phony" war. The war in the spring
Of this year began to carry, in public
thinking, a real threat to America. Out
of this change of mood came the re-
armament program, came also
strengthening of the third nomination
movement to the point where its sue
cess at Chicago in July became assured.
The effect of the war has certainly
got to be taken into account in any
appraisal of the factors working for
Roosevelt. However much of truth there
may be in the assertion that it is the
Subsidized" vote which gives him his
chance Of victory for third term. it is,
to pervert the truth by oversimplihcation
to rest on any such easy analysis. I'm
questionably there will be votes for
Roosevelt on account of his foreign
policy by a considerable number who
otherwise would be enthusiastically on
the other side.
Effective Curb Likely.
Along with the interesting possibility
that Willkie will win the election with q
minority of the popular vote is the
chance Of Republican House of Repre-.
sentatives even in the event of Roose-
welt victory. This is chance that is
being seriously canvassed in all informed
election predictions. 1t may we'll be
realized if the election is close; it will not
be, of course, II Roosevelt wins in great
sweep.
If the Republicans can hold the seats
they now have and gain 48 more they
will have a majority. Two years ago
Democrats by a margin sufficiently small
to encourage Republican hopes for 1910.
In 10 Of these the Republican candidate
got 43 per cent or better of the total
vote.
The possibility Of a Republican con-
gressional victory accompanied by
Roosevelt victory rests, Of course. on the
same fact that led the powerful Demo-
cratic. bosses to demand his name at
the head of the ticket-the fact that
Roosevelt, weaker though he may be
than in 1886, remains stronger than his
party. There is no chance for the Re-
pubicans to upset the Democratic con-
troll of the Senate.
The likelihood is that if Roosevelt is
reelected, there will be an effective curb
on him in the House, in any case, by
Republicans and dissident Democrats,
Just as there will be Q curb on Willkie,
should he become President, BY the
Democratic Senate.