Evening star., 1940-01-21
Exomines Prospects Of
British Setback
By OtDen L. Scott.

going to represent large element Of
shadow boxing. Real attention is direct
ed at the problems to be raised when
real war breaks out abroad In the spring.
An uneasy feeling is found to exist in
high places here that the war might not
be so simple or so casual as it now ap-
pears to be. The apparent confidence Of
many people that Great Britain is going
to be able to sit on the sidelines-con-
Quoting occasional forays-while waiting
for Germany to collapse is not shared by
the well informed. Neither is there COM
plete confidence In an outcome that
would be satisfactory to the United
States.
There was much eyebrow raising in
Congress when Admiral Stark, operat-
ing head Of the American Navy, OBJ
served that this country needed to pre-
pare for the eventuality that Great Brit
ain might lose the war. This sounded
like a good bit Of lobbying for a much
larger American Navy, something that
admirals are expected to want.
But very well informed and very con-
servative sources In Great Britain are
limiting at the same thing. They are
saying that the British government is
not yet mobilizing the empires resources
in a manner or on a scale that can pro-
vide assurance Of victory when Germany
lets loose. They report tendency to
underestimate the striking power of the
German military and naval machine and
tendency to conclude that the mere
possession of vast potential resources is
enough to assure an allied victory.
The critical viewpoint of some ex-
tremely competent British observers is
making an impression here. It leads to
the feeling that the United States in
the end may not find neutrality so easy
as 1t now seems and the further feeling
that it may be dangerous for this country
to take lightly the advice of its military
and naval officials.
Economic and military facts of the
situation in Europe as pieced together
by officials here appear to be about as
follows:
The Germans have slipped into their
total war economy with rather remark
able smoothness. All Of the limited re-
sources Of that nation Of 10000, 900 peo-
pie now are mobilized and directed at
the one objective Of supplying the army
and navy. AS result, the Germans
have war machine the striking power
of which may be much greater than re-
vealed In Poland.
On the other side, the British and
French have an immense advantage over
the Germans In human and material re-
sources Supplies available to them are
limitless. They possess the exchange
with which to draw upon the vast pro-
ductive machine in the United States.
Their financial resources enable them to
release an unusually large proportion Of
the home population for war activity.
But, reports from Britain say, the i'm
mense advantage enjoyed by Britain and
France Is not being pressed as yet, par
tic,llarly In Great Britain.
Resources are not fully modified
There has been hesitation in building up
stocks Of commodities because of the
cost involved. As result, the British
Isles are not well prepared to withstand
a serious interference with shipping
There is hesitation to force sacrifices
on private industry and on labor. AS a
result, inflationary tendencies already are
apparent in Great Britain. An impor-
tant volume of labor is permitted to re-
main idle even after the armed services
have greatly increased their enlistment,
showing that the maximum productive
effort Is not being realized.
In a word, 1t appears that Germany
now is fully mobilized, with all Of her
limited resources fitted into the war task,
while Great Britain is far from being
fully mobilized and has not yet cashed
in on the vast advantage that she can
have.
OF course, say informed officials here.
the British traditionally expect to mud
die through. But what these American
officials wonder is whether this time
there can be any muddling If there is
to be an early and assured victory.
WHAT they wonder, further is whether
the United States will be able to main
tain comfortable neutrality unless
there is an early and assured victory
for the allies.
It now is pretty well accepted that, If
Germany has her way, this war will be
directed primarily at England and will
be in the air and at sea.
Well authenticated reports have it that
in Holland very many families are begin
ming to send women and children out of
the country. The Dutch, too, are in
creasing their investments in this coun-
try, particularly in real estate. There is
fear that the German Army In the
spring may make the move that 1t was
about to make and then hesitated to
make late In 1885, Again, the objective
would be to obtain bases of operation
nearer to England.
The Germans admittedly maintain at
this time an air superiority over the
British and French. The expectation Is
that they will try to take advantage OF
this superiority while 1t exists. II this
expectation is correct British shipping
and British ports are to bear the brunt
Of an attack that can be devastating.
Whether the British are prepared for
this expected attack Is q matter Of some
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