Evening star., 1940-01-11

EIVNVS SUSVSIuVsu
Key in Southeast
Aims Of Treaty Held
Impossible Without
Silent Partner
By MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.
It is perhaps too early for full
appraisal of the military signifl-
canoe of the reported Italo-Hun-
garian agreement, but it marks the
first definite move by Italy after a
long period of quiescence (and re-
1lectionD.
A glance at the map shows the
keystone position of Hungary. Only
through Hungary can Germany
conveniently reach Rumania, and
Hungary bestrides the Danube, in
creasingly important to Germany
as an exterior line of communica-
tions both for Rumanian and Rus
sian products. Moreover, Hungary
now has a common frontier with
The Soviet Union.
It is certainly mistake to sup
pose that the fiercely nationalistic
Magyars are eager to become the
pawns of Nazi Germany. But it
would be just as great mistake
to underrate the influence of Hun
garian revisionism. the temptation
which Hitler may hold out of resto-
ration, at Rumania's expense, of
the coveted and rich province of
Pennsylvania.
Army is Enlarged.
The Hungarian Army has been
enlarged and partially rearmed and
can probably put seven infantry di-
visions and a cavalry division in
the field-say 100000 men. These
will be good troops, well officered,
If lacking in modern equipment.
They could not hope long to re-
sist a German attack in force;
their country is almost as desti-
tute of natural defensive positions
against Germany as was Poland;
against Rumania they would prob
ably do better They could very
likely make a desperate and pro-
tracted defense of the formidable
barrier of the Carpathians against
a Russian attack. But if attacked
by either Germany or Russia, Hun
gary's hope. in the end, must-like
Finland 's-lie in aid from without,
and in aid which will not bring
with it a fresh threat to Hun
garian independence.
1t is in this consideration that
the Italo- Hungarian pact becomes
interesting; for Italy and Hungary
have no common frontier. The
routes from one to the other lie
either through German Austria or
through Yugoslavia. If the pact
makes sense-and neither Foreign
Ministers Count Galeazzo Ciano nor
Count Stefan Csaky is man who
wastes his time in nonsense-then
we are compelled to assume that
1t envisages some means by which
Italy could bring aid to Hungary
If required. There are several pos
sibilities.
(A) If the pact is directed solely
against Russia, then it implies the
acquiesence of Germany or Yugo-
slavia or both in permitting Italian
help to pass through to Hungary.
It seems unlikely that Germany, at
this stage of the game, would put
herself in such a position.
(B) If the pact includes Italian
help to Hungary against German
attack, or a German attempt to
pass through Hungarian territory
to get at Rumania, then not only
Yugoslav acquiesence but perhaps
active Yugoslav participation is i'm
piled.
YugOslavia Becomes Key State.
Thus Yugoslavia also becomes
key state in this southeastern game
of power politics. The YugOslav
army 16 to 18 first-line divlsions)
is composed of excellent human
fighting material, as was proved
in the two Balkan wars and the
war of 1914-19l8. 1t is well COM
manded, but not too well equipped.
It lacks particularly modern anti
tank and anti-aircraft weapons, and
like most Balkan armies suffers
from a diversity Of armament which
in war would give birth to serious
complications in matters of supply.
Its air force is small, but quite
efficient and we'll equipped. Above
all, the Yugoslav terrain, as against
Italy and German, presents several
formidable naturally defensive po-
sitionS, which the Yugoslavs have
proved they know well how to
defend.
On the other hand, there are in
ternal weaknesses in the Yugoslav
state which might well be source
of danger in war. Yugoslavia's
lines of communication to the outer
world are poor, except to Germany
and Italy. The Salonica Railway
and those to Istanbul and into
Rumania are of limited capacity:
Yugoslavia's ports on the Adriatic
are commanded by the Italian fleet
and air force. These are the mill
tary reasons which incline Yugo-
slavia to cooperation with Italy:
It would be difficult for any Yugo-
slav government to take a strong
line against Germany without Ital-
ian support or at least assurance
of Italy's benevolent neutrality.
It may be noted that alone of the
Balkan nations, Yugoslavia has
frontiers with both italy and Ger
many; and with Italy, there are in
the military sense two such from
tiers-that on the northwest, and
the Albanian frontier on the south
west.
Maybe Silent Partner,