Evening star., 1940-09-08
BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.

BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.
AS time passes without the de-
velopment of the long-threatened
invasion Of Great Britain, there
necessarily arises the question of
whether this is still a part of the
German plan, or whether the idea
of invasion has for the present been
abandoned in favor Of one of the
two remaining methods by which
Germany might seek the reduction
of her chief enemy: Air action by
itself. or air action plus blockade.
On the record, the first may well
be set aside. Air power has never
yet been able to accomplish decisive
results alone, and 1t Is not likely to
do so now.
OF course, if the Germans could
obtain a permanent superiority over
the Royal Air Force, to such an ex-
tent as to reduce the latter to COM
parative impotence, then we might
see decisive results flowing from
that fact. But it is hardly to be
imagined that with so large a part
of Britain's airplane manufactures
and pilot training being carried on
in regions far out of reach of the
German bombs, while the whole of
such German activities are within
reach of British attacks, such su-
periority is going to be gained, or
if temporarily and locally gained,
can be maintained.
The question is whether such a
temporary and local superiority can
be achieved as to make invasion pos
sible; and this in turn seems to be
pretty well tied up with the question
Of blockade. In other words, 1t now
appears that unless Germany can
seriously interfere with British sea
communications, the Royal Air
Force is going to be able to main
tain its fight against the Germans
and indeed is likely to cut down the
present German numerical advan-
tage with the passage of time until
all hope of German victory in the
air has disappeared.
Channel Ports Virtually Closed.
While not shutting out, therefore,
the possibility that invasion may
yet be imminent, it may be well to
examine, in what detail is possible,
the situation with regard to block
ade Of the British Isles by the means
now available to the Germans.
The German air force can con-
tribute to this effort by attacks on
ports and on merchant shipping.
AS has been previously pointed out
IN these articles, the occupation by
Germany of the whole of the conti-
mental coast of the Channel and the
North Sea makes these areas diff
cult and in some cases al but i'm
passable for British shipping in
large quantities. In effect, the
ports of the Channel are closed to
ocean tonnage, though coastwise
conveys are still operating in re-
duced numbers. The port of Lon
don and the other east coast ports
can be reached only by oceon con-
voys going northabout, and these
may we'll be precarious, though with
The return of bad weather German
operations against them will be re-
duced.
The additional mileage required
has a direct bearing on the mat
ter of available escort vessels and
aircraft. The tendency will be,
therefore, to throw additional strain
on the docking, mooring and repair
facilities of the west coast ports,
especially those of the Clyde. the
Mersey and the Bristol Channel.
In these ports and in their waters
of approach there will be consider
eble congestion, affording oppor-
tunities to German submarines and
aircraft and resulting not only in
losses and damage, but also in de-
lays which may, with the passage
of time, tend to become cumulative
in effect.
According to the latest British
figures, which there is no reason to
question, the actual sinkings are
running only about g to 3 per cent