Evening star., 1940-01-02
Brookmire Forecasts
Best Year Since
Prosperous '20s
Expects Trade Activity
To Exceed 1887 by
Good Margin
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, Jan. 2-Business
can logically look forward to more
prosperous times in 1910 than in
any year since the celebrated 1920s
according to the Brookmire Eco
nomic Service
The annual Brookmire forecaster
sums up the 1910 outlook with these
specific forecasts:
Business is expected to surpass
by good margin the peak reached
by the previous recovery in 1897
The computed normal level may
we'll be approached during 1910 for
the first time since the 192Os.
No early peace is indicated thus
far. 1t would be expedited, how
ever, if the Nazi regime were re-
placed by conservative govern
ment. Peace would bring short
setback, but statesmanlike Eu-
ropean settlement would lead to an
era of world prosperity based on
eCoAAOullC CO-OpeTdtlOll.
Long War Probable.
Prolonged war still appears more
likely alternative. Involvement of
the United States is not anticipated.
1t means a more selective, more in
flationary boom
Aviation is already spurred to
record achievements by growth OF
flying on domestic and international
routes, and this No. l expansive in
dustry will be notably boosted by
war demands.
Construction will feel the stim-
illus OF large housing backlog. but
the danger of rising costs will bear
watching and the industrial type
should fare best under war con-
ditions.
National income will have its up
trend reinforced by broadening re-
vlval of construction, machinery and
other capital goods industries. A
rise Of four or five billions to about
IS billions is presaged, bringing dol
lar income to the best since 1929
and buying power to the highest on
record.
Auto sales will respond in magni-
1ed degree to the rise in national
income. The expected gain in pro-
duction of IA million cars over 1899
to S million would lift the industry
to the f1ourishing 1887 level.
Election Is Factor.
Election year will bring its usual
psychological specters. Antitrust
drives, tax questions. reform meas
ures will still breed anxiety. But the
rule, even in election years, is for
economics, not politics, to hold sway.
These political perpleXities and such
problems as inventories, labor
troubles, foreign exchange fuctua-
tions, or war dislocations may bring
some business setback from recent
highs; but recovery should be para
mount.
Commodity prices will head up
ward. Domestic recovery itself is
capable of generating a stable ad-
vance in the price level.
Inflationary influences, moreover,
permeate the financial situation, and
war tends to fan them. Prices be-
come more responsive to these lifting
forces as demand approaches pro-
ductive capacity. Added factors to
watch for signs that imitation ten
dencies may be touched off are car
shortages, "bottle-necks, specula-
ton
Prosperity probabilities are height
ened by urged deferred needs, pros
pective foreign orders and expansive
new industries-backed by unparal-
leled financial resources. Confidence
has scarcely begun to exert its dy-
manic power and should spread with
the progress of the economic cycle.
Before the end of 1910, says Brook
mire, the combined vigor of these
influences can well advance the Ma
ton to the threshold of prosperity.