Evening star., 1940-09-08
6. 0.P. Sees Victory
|fFoes' CifyMajjorify
.EsHe|d 10 $4,000
New Deal Has Losses,
But Important Entries
To CounterbuIunce
Special Dispatch to The Star.

State, with Its rich pOutlcal prize OF
At electoral votes in the coming
presidential election, must be listed
at present in the doubtful column.
Carried by President Roosevelt in
1886 by 1,112,552 votes. the Empire
State this year is by no means a
New Deal stronghold. The nominal
' ton of Wendell L. Willkie and the
resultant resurgence Of Republican
State organization that has tempo
rarily laid aside its intra-State splits
for its first real chance since 1928
of capturing the State, considerable
anti-third-term sentiment among
Democrats, and growing signs of a
serious revolt against the national
administration by the middle classes
have all made serious inroads on the
heavy Democratic majority
AS a result. impartial political OBJ
servers here view the State as toss
up at present, with whatever ad-
vantage may exist resting slightly
with the Democrats.
$4,000 Is Index Figure.
The State, and in al probabilities
the presidential election, will hinge
on the outcome of the vote in New
York City. In 1886 the President
carried the city by 1,375,396 votes, a
majority which Democrats openly
admit will not be approached this
year.
The Republicans are confident Mr..
Willkie will carry up-State-all the
territory outside the city-by a larger
majority than the 616,975 votes Dis
trict Attorney Thomas E. Dewey
brought down to tnc city line in
1888 against Democratic Gov. Her
bert H. Lehman. They expect Mr.
WILKES upstate majority to be
$4,000 or higher
The figure $4,000 can well be
taken as an index figure in the State.
If the President can be held to under
that amount in the city, then the
Republicans have an excellent
chance of carrying the State; if the
. Presidents city majority goes above
$4,000, then the Democrats, in all
likelihood. will win the State.
G o. P. Task Not Impossible.
Despite President Roosevelt's over
vhelming 1886 majority, the pros
poets this year of the Republicans
holding the Democratic national
ticket to $4,000 in the city are not
impossible. Among the important
factors working in their favor are
the following:
The Willkie campaign organiza-
tions-the Republican National and
State Committees, the Associated
Willkie Clubs and the Democrats
-Willkie group-are already work.
ing at top speed to turn out the
vote, particularly the large bloc of
"stay-at- homes" who have never
voted before.
The Irish and Italian vote, us
ually Democratic, is 'off the reserva-
ton" The Irish are "sore" at the
treatment accorded James A. Farley
by the New Deal and are opposed
on religious grounds, to what they
claim are the "socialstic" leanings
of the national administration.
while many Italians have never for
gotten the Presidents stab in the
back indictment of Premier Mus
solini
Some Oppose Third Term.
There is considerable anti-third
term sentiment among many old
line Democrats, leaders and rank
and-f1le club houseworkers alike.
This resentment, apparent particu-
larly in Tammany Hall, may result
in a falling off of Democratic votes
in Manhattan.
There are signs of serious defec-
ton from the Roosevelt camp OF
the city's middle class, particularly
the small businessmen" the own
ers of small shops or businesses.
Normally such defections would
spell defeat, but the New Deals po-
litical ledger in the State shows i'm
portant entries "in the black"
which tend to counterbalance some
what any losses and makes the State
a real battle. Among these Demo-
cratic factors are:
The almost united support of BOTH
factions of organized labor, with
the c. I. o. and the A. F. of L.
already on record for the President.
Strong Machine Aid.
The strong political machines OF
Edward j. Flynn, national Demo-
cratic chairman, in the Bronx and
Frank V. Kelly in Brooklyn, which
are certain to roll up large nlajorl-
ties for the Democratic ticket in
the two boroughs.
The support of the large major
ity of the city's heavy Jewish vote,
mainly on the question of national
defense and the Presidents open
attack on the totalitarian powers.
The support of virtually all of the
city's large number of unemployed,
w. P. A. workers and persons on
relief.
= While it is still too early at pres
ent to determine just how these
Republican and Democratic factors
will operate, one thing seems ap-
parent-New York State will be
real battlegrounf. But it is battle
worth winning-the presidency