Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-09-08
Ratio of Democrats in House
Provides Key to Political Tides
Analysis of Past Elections Pictured as More
Definite and Cumulative Measurement
of Vote Swings
By LII Beam
By L. II. Bean.

Democrats back into power in 1902 as
a result of 1903 and the political and
economic reform movements that it slim
ulated.
the depression of 1914 and brought the
Democratic party back into power with
the depression Of 1882.
Did the depression of 1888, accom-
panied by a marked loss in Democratic
membership from 10 per cent in 1886 to
81 per cent in 1888, initiate longtime
swing that will carry the Democratic per-
centage in Congress below its present
norm of Sc per cent? Will the Demo-
cratic party return to the low position it
held during the 1905. the 1905 and the
1905, or will it maintain the position it
held during the 1905 and 1905, when
the pendulum failed to swing low? An
answer to this question as to the long
time prospect must be either pure guess
work, astute political and economic anal
ysis. or prophetic intuition. Since our
purpose is to be purely factual, We make
no effort to answer this question.
Swing of Pendulum.
AS to how far the pendulum has swung
since 1888, and where it may be today,
the indications are somewhat clearer.
These indications may be obtained by
examining the course of developments in
this longtime Democratic record after
each of the previous five major turning
points. We note first that after the loss
of position in 1856, the Democrats lost
even more heavily in 1860. This was due
to a combination of split in the Demo.
cratic party, with two candidates in the
ing in the Civil War.
A similar loss in position developed in
1894 in the second congressional election
following the 1890 peak, this being asso-
ciated with major depressions. The loss
of position by the Democrats after these
peaks of 1874, 1882 and 1912 also was as
ISOLATED with downward trends in busi-
ness. but in two of these three cases in.
volving the second election following the
peak years (Which would correspond to
the 1910 election following the 1886 peak
the Democratic percentage fell only
slightly, and in the third case increased
slightly. On the average the change was
about points. This small change NAV
be contrasted with decline of 10 points
in 1860 and "a in 1894.
Up 10 June, 1910.
During the first part of 1910 most OBJ
servers agreed that we were not facing
social and economic conditions that
could be likened to those of 1860 or 1894
and one may therefore be justified in
concluding that the political pendulum
between 1888 and the spring of 1910
may have swung only moderately lower
and had a congressional election been
held then Democrats would still have
had as many as 81 or SO per cent of the
two-party membership. These may be
taken as a projection of the political
tide up to June, 1910, before the Euro
pean war began to affect the political
tide
The political pendulum has so far oeen
described in terms of the Democratic
percentage of the two-party membership
in Congress. II may also be shown in
terms of the Democratic percentage Of
the two-party vote for President. Over
the years there has been a very close
correspondence between the direction Of
the swings in the presidential two-party
vote and the swings in the party COM
position OF Congress. The swings in the
House membership percentage are as a
rule greater than the swings in the pres
idential percentages. This general agree
ment is shown in the chart, where it
should be observed that the scale for
plotting the House membership per-
centages on on side differs from the
scale on the other used for plotting the
presidential percentages. For example,
in 1928 the Democrats cast Al per cent
OF the total two-party presidential vote
and elected SO per cent of the tuo-party
membership in Congress. In 1882 the
presidential Democratic vote was 50 per
cent, Democratic House membership "a
per cent; and in 1886 the respective yer-
centages were 62.2 and 10. From this
general correspondence we can compute
that a Democratic House membership
percentage of 81 ordinarily corresponds
to Democratic vote for President Of 81
to SIS per cent.
Half Of 1910 Appraised.
A perusal of the long time record, the
nature of the 1888 Democratic congress
sional losses and the assumption that
the business situation in the spring Of
1910 would be better than that of the
fall months of 1888 suggested that in
the first half of 1910 the congressional
and presidential Democratic percentages
might be taken as 81 and 81. respectively.
This tentative appraisal was, in fact,
corroborated by the Gallup survey of
public opinion for the United States as
whole. AS of March, 1910, the Gallup
sample poll of the Nation showed that
IS per cent of the people wanted the
Decorate party to win in the 1910 cleo
ton, and in April, 1910, 81 per cent
If this is fairly correct appraisal of
the position of the political tide as Of
the first half of 1910, it will be interest,"
ing to see, in the outcome of the presi-
dental campaign, the extent to which
it is affected by the personalities of the
candidates, and the campaign issues, as
well as other developments.