Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-10-10
By MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.

Of the war situation as it stands.
It may be divided into three areas
Excluding for the moment the Far
East)-Britain. the Balkans and
Middle East, the Western Mediter-
ranean.
Cd Britain. While Mr.. Churchill
does not believe the threat of Ger
man invasion should be regarded
as over for the winter, 1t is appar-
ent that If invasion is actually at
tempted, it will be under very great
difficulties and with diminishing
prospects of success. The Royal
Air Force shows no signs of having
been Weakened; it is indeed ap-
parently stronger in numbers than
in July, with its bomber force grow
ing especially fast and almost daily
increasing the scope of its offensive
activities against Germany and
against the so-called invasion
ports"
The naval command exercised by
the British over their surrounding
waters appears complete, little, if
at ALL impeded by German aircraft.
The land defenseS of the island of
Great Britain are very strong and
growing stronger day by day. Bar
ring the sudden production OF some
'secret weapon of unknown poten-
tialities. invasion now would seem
an indication of absolute despera-
ton on the part of the axis leaders
Blockade Grin Tightens,
Air attacks on Great Britain
continue. but so do air attacks on
Germany. There seems no pros
pect of any immediate decisive re-
suit either way. The combination
of air attacks on ports and shipping
and of submarine and motor boat
attacks on ships at sea appears to
be Germany's most formidable
weapon against the British Isles
and the only method of attack
whose results appear to be growing
The British naval blockade, on the
other hand, is tightening its grip
on German-occupied Europe Both
of these are longtime methods as
far as results are concerned.
90 The Balkans and the Middle
East Germany, having reduced
Hungary to practical vassalage, has
done likewise with Rumania. Ger
man troops are now in occupation
of that country, and it is reported
the Rumanian Army is to be re-
organized under German command.
The Roumanian peasant has always
been a good soldier when we'll fed,
rs was shown both in 1877 and
in the World War. Add to this the
increasing prospect of Bulgaria's
Joining the axis-lured by terri
torial temptations-and We have
situation in which Yugoslavia
directly threatened, and the pos
sibility of Russian interference in
the Balkans materially reduced.
Yugoslav resistance under these
conditions would be almost hope
less, Greece is in no case able
to put up a fight against Italy on
one side and Germany and Bull
garia on the other. Turkey might
not be able to defend the OAR
denelles. though if driven from Eu-
rope the Turks could still make
strong fight in the rugged terrain
of the Anatolian Plateau. For this
reason we should discount reports
of a German march through Tur-
key into Syria for the present. This
might be attempted, but it is not
an immediate consideration unless
German and Russian pressure on
Turkey can bring about Turkish
acquiescence, without war. or
course, if German troops can get
into Syria, they can threaten Egypt
from the rear.
May Aid Italy in Egypt.
1t is more likely, however, that
German participation in the Middle
East campaign will be by air. The
italian islands of Rhodes and
Skarpanti are about $50 miles from
Alexandria. This is a practicable
distance for the larger German
bombers, though it is not one which
permits continuous mass attacks
unless very large numbers of bomb
ers can be operated from these is
lands, which is doubtful. Once the
Balkan hinterland has been cleaned
up, and Turkey under severe pres
sure enough to prevent the inter-
ference of the Turkish air force,
1t might very we'll be that the Ger
mans will proceed to set up large
air bases on Rhodes, and come to
i sc in,
attack on Egypt.
It may be said that they can do
this now. But study Of the map
indicates the contrary. Unless at
least part of the Aegean coast OF
Greece is in their hands, so that
prompt support can be given to the
italian island bases, these would be
in grave danger. Rhodes is only 26O
miles from the British air bases
on Cyprus and 100 miles from Crete,
where British aircraft might appear
were Greece to be forced into the
war. Any attempt to support from
Italy a large-scale air war In the
Eastern Mediterranean probably
would result in disaster, since the
British would have all the advantage
OF position.
Presenting that the Germans do,
then, push on to the Aegean and
commence air operations of major
proportions, what are their chances
of success? Their detectives might
be:
Cd To drive the British fleet out
of the theater of operations by direct
attacks and by destroying its base
at Alexandria.
90 To terrorize the Egyptian
people and produce civil chaos IN
Egypt and perhaps in Palestine.
90 To give direct aid to the 1tal-
han Army in It's attack on Egypt.
British Also Can Strike. -.
As to the first, they might well
succeed In making Alexandria use
less, given sufficient time. But their
own bases would be under heavy
British attack, so that they would