Evening star., 1940-09-26

1t is 81 per cent of those who have
decided how they will vote and by
no means majority of the persons
canvasSed.
This means that the outcome of
the election is still uncertain and
that the undecided vote may swing
the election to either candidate de-
pending on factors that may develop
in the next few weeks or on a
crystallization of view which may
have been in the background of the
voters mind in creating a doubt
that is about to be resolved.
This writer inquired of Dr. Gal
lup not merely about the percentage
of undecided votes, but on the make
up of the voters by income groups
outside the solid South. 1t will be
recalled that DR.. Gallup on August
25 released poll by income groups
which showed material defections
from the Roosevelt strength of four
years ago in each of the three
classiications. He stated then, that
the middle economic group consists
of persons earning from $40 to $50
a week and he classified all above
that range as in the upper income
group and all below as in the lower
income group. But the figures as
given were not tabulated by Sec
tions and it occurred to this writer
that from a political viewpoint 1t
was important to know how the in
come groups were voting in the
States outside the solid South be-
cause in the latter area the standard
Of earnings is on the average less
than in many other States.
The Tabulation.
DR.. Gallup now has furnished a
tabulation of his August Is poll by
income groups exclusive of and in
elusive of the solid South. The
table gives the Roosevelt strength,
the reader being able to calculate
the Willkie strength by subtracting
from. 100. The Roosevelt standing is
as follows:
LISA os,:,s, UsA EIs1!
Upper economic group 25 %
Middle economic group 43 At
Lower economic group 64 Sc
Thus it will be seen that when the
solid South is excluded the Willkie
strength in the upper income group
is IS instead of II per cent, and the
Republican nominee is given 81 in
stead of So per cent of the middle
economic group and likewise he has
46 per cent cut into the lower in
come group instead of a. per cent.
Another reason for excluding the
solid South is that no regular Re-
publican activity normally exists in
those 10 States, hence political cam
paigning is virtually unknown in
behalf of a Republican nominee.
Persons canvassed are much more
likely to be Democratic than Re-
publican.
The election will be won by the
results not only in the middle eco
nomic group, which contains 48 per
cent of the voting population, but
also by the results in the lower
income group, which embraces 38
per cent of the voters.
Wlllkle Gains in Each Class.
1t is apparent that Mr.. Willkie
has improved the Republican posi-
ton very materially in each one of
three income groups as compared to
four years ago, and if he can carry
the middle income group by sub
stantial margin and hold the Roose-
welt strength down to lower figure
than 64 per cent in the low income
group outside the solid South he will
win the election.
The battle, then, is in the middle
income and lower income groups.
because the people who have been
successful in winning their way to
the top under Americas free enter
prise system have by 75-to-25 per-
centage come to the conclusion that
America will be better off with
man at the helm who has business
capacity and business judgment
than by man without such ex-
perience. Government today is so
closely related to industrial efficiency
and industrial production-an es-
sential to mechanical warfare and
defense preparation - that the
middle income and upper income
groups, If won by Willkie, will turn
toward him very largely because of
their belief in the necessity of
electinp some one who understands