Evening star., 1940-11-05
BY ARCHIBALD M. CROsSLEY.

on HS-StSctIOH tTenuS Oy (TOSSbcy
polls.
By ARCHIBALD M. CROSSLEY.
Wendell Willkie, to win, must
have not some, but almost all, of
the breaks.
Analysis of the trends Of the
campaign shows considerable Roose-
yelt strength In midsummer, fol-
lowed by a fast-rising Willkie tide.
which met some resistance in the
last week as the President began
his intensive drive. Evidence seems
to indicate that mass movements of
voters accumulate like snowballs,
taking certain amount of time.
With counter movements con-
centrated in the last few days, 1t
Is diehcult to gauge their respective
intensities to establish final trends.
Even with all the safeguards of
modern cross-section polling, the
statistics themselves cannot guar
antee accurate forecasting of
State result II the figures show one
side leading by very much less than
percentage points. Beyond this
normal expected deviation, however,
certain amount of judgment may
be exercised to produce a reason
able estimate
UnderestimatI0n Of Willkie.
The greatest limitation Of the
statistics is inability to know in ad-
vance who will take the trouble to
vote. At the close of the campaign,
the greatest zeal would appear to be
on the Republican side. The Re-
publican side also appears to be
far more active than ever before in
recent years in getting out the vote.
The poll indicates a far greater
detection among Roosevelt 1896
voters than among Landon voters.
What the machines will do it is
impossible TO say, but efforts have
been made to reduce their power.
The basis of distribution of in
terviews in this poll has been
population. adjusted for known data
OAA blAC way NObClS
views have been obtained in the
very lowest income classification,
and where person said he in
tended to vote that vote was taken.
On the basis OF all these facts, We
would think our ratios. where they
deviate from the final results
might show some general tendency
toward slight underestimation of
Willkie strength.
WILKES Highest Is 315.
This belief is strengthened some
what by special secret ballot test
in two key cities. Using population
distributions and techniques exactly
alike except that one was by per-
sonal questioning and the other by
secret ballots dropped in a container,
we found very little variation in
the three upper income levels, but
what seems TO be significant ten
dency for the two lower groups to
vote somewhat more strongly Roose-
welt in personal interviews than on
secret cards-only "a few percentage
points on difference. but in this
election only few points are needed
to tip the scale Z
That, however, is the Willkie side
OF the picture. On the Roosevelt
side we find the weekend checkup
Of voters undecided two weeks ago
now showing tendency. though
not a conclusive one, to favor Mr.
Roosevelt. More important from
the standpoint of forecasting the
final result is the fact that even in
cluding Oregon, Mr.. WILKES highest
possible electoral vote seems to be
BIS. Loss of any combination of
States which totals 40 electoral votes
seems sure to destroy his chances.
This means taking over the line
nearly all States now pivotal on the
Roosevelt side, and holding nearly
every State he has, including those
with narrow margins. 1t is entirely
possible to do it. but the laws of
chance are against it.
With all of these considerations
the following appear to be the best
possible final estimates:
States apparently safe for Mr..
Roosevelt with their electoral votes:
Alabama. IL; Arizona, 8; Arkansas,
9; California, %; Delaware, 3;
Florida. 7; Georgia, II; Idaho, 4;
Kentucky, II; Louisiana, 10; Mary
land, 8: Mississippi. 9: Montana,
4; Nevada, 8; New Mexico, 8; North
Carolina, l3; Oklahoma, II; South
Carolina, 8; Tennessee, Il: Texas,
%; Utah, 4; Virginia, II; Washing
ton. 8; West Virginia, 8. Total, 2l6.
States apparently safe for Mr..
Willkie:
Iowa. IL; Kansas, Q; Maine, S;
Nebraska. 7: North Dakota, 4;
South Dakota, 4; Vermont, 8.
Total, 43.
BorderIine States.
For the following pivotal States
the october 29 percentage for Mr..
Willkie is given in parenthesis with
notes on changes found since then,