Evening star., 1940-07-03
STAR WASHINGTON G, WEDNESDAY JULY e4o
Defense Plans Assure
Business Activity
In Coming Months
Rising Incomes Expected
To Ruise Stundurd
Of Living Soon
BY J. G. DONLEY,
(Released by Consolidated News
Features

Features)
NEW YORK, July 3.-Even if the
eventual consequences Of an un-
satisfactory conclusion of the strug-
gle in Europe should be lost trade
and hence a poorer livelihood for
the United States, our defense pro-
gram during the next several
months seems likely to bring back
some semblance Of prosperity with
increasing employment.
Before long, rising incomes from
employment should begin to raise
the standard of living which has
suffered because we have had ap-
proximately one person unemployed
for every five employed. The stand
ard of living is largely matter of
the volume of production and the
extent of employment, two factors
which normally tend to move to-
gether.
The Bureau of Agricultural Eco
nomics, which has made a record
for itself in calling the economic
turns, says in its latest bulletin that
increased industrial production
should mean larger consumer in
comes during the last half of this
year" and that this in turn would
be reflected in a stronger consumer
demand for meats, dairy products,
poultry products, fruits and vege-
tables" 1t would also be reflected,
of course, in rising demand for
consumer goods other than farm
products.
Durable Goods Spurred.
The effect of preparedness spend
ing in its early stages seems all the
more likely to be favorable upon
our general economy because such
spending will put the emphasis On
durable goods where unemployment
has most stubbornly existed. The
experience during the long-drawn-
out depression and previous SINH
lar periods has been that at least
three-quarters of all the unem-
ployment among producing workers
was concentrated in durable goods
industries.
During the past year, Influenced
by pre-war preparations, actual
war orders" and the growing need
in this country to do something
about accumulated obsolescence, it
is notable that durable goods in
dustries have made more progress
than durable. For instance,
the Department of Labor's employ
ment index for durable goods m
dustries rose from 848 for April,
1899, to $50 for April, 1910, while
the non-durable employment index
stood at 1885 in April of this year,
as compared with 1880 year
previous.
While many arguments may be
marshalled on both sides Of the
question as to whether it is more
desirable in seeking to stimulate
general recovery to put the emphasis
on durable or non-durable goods, the
desirability Of reducing unemploy-
ment in the direction where it has
existed in the largest proportion
and with the greatest persistence
is self-evident. Planned efforts at
recovery have previously put the
emphasis upon non durable, or con-
sumer goods, without much success
in producing a well-rounded pros
perity. And it will now be inter-
esting to see whether the necessitous
emphasis on durable, or capital
goods, produces better all-around
results.
Unemployment Declines.
In its survey of unemployment
for May, 1910, just released, the
National Industrial Corferen
Board reports a decline of 38 per
cent in unemployment from April
to May and puts the total of jobless
persons at 8,624,0O0 The complete
employment picture, with compari-
sons with a year ago and also with