Evening star., 1940-03-22

Long held by the Democrats. the
lst Nebraska district was carried
for the G. o. P. in 1888 by George
n. Heinke by the scant margin of
349 votes over the Democratic in
cumbent. This was plurality only.
An independent candidate, wom-
an received some 5000 votes, so that
Heinke was elected with only Al per
cent OF the total vote cast.
Heinke was killed in an automo-
bile accident the first of the year
and a special election to fill the va
cancy has been called for the day
of the general State te-nominating
primaries. J. Hyde Sweet. a Me-
braska City newspaper editor who
had been Heinke's secretary, is the
Republican candidate against
Charles Dafoe, Democrat, former
State Senator. The narrowness of
the margin between the two parties
on the 1888 showing. the location
of the district in the heart of the
farm section, the independent ma
ture Of a large part of the vote
these factors combine TO make the
lst Nebraska district to be
watched closely for a clue to the
1910 political trend.
Scramble for Regular Term.
The election will be only to choose
a representative for the remainder
Of the present congressional term.
For the term to follow there is
scramble in both parties and 1t is
an interesting angle that among the
candidates for the Democratic nomi-
nation is Charles w Bryan, the
brother of William j. and the run
ming mate of John w. Davis in the
1924 presidential campaign.
An improvement OF the Repub-
lican position in the 1st Nebraska
district would be given the same
Interpretation by the G.. o. P. statis-
ticians as the percentage gains for
the party in the 17th and 22d Ohio
districts and. most recently in the
9Th Iowa. In the last named, a
normally Republican district, the
Republicans elected their man In
1888 with 58.5 per cent of the total
vote cast and this year they won
with 602 per cent-a gain OF IL
per cent. In the 22d Ohio, an IN
dustrial district taking in part OF
the city Of Cleveland, Mrs. Chester
c. Bolton not only held the gain by
which her Republican husband had
recaptured the district in 1893, but
added IL per cent. She received
62.6 per cent Of the vote cast.
But the by-election from which
the Republicans derive the most
satisfaction was that held in the
18th Ohio, balanced farming
industrial district in the center of
the State and hot political battle
ground. In 1888 the Republican
candidate polled 474 per cent of the
vote cast. the long time Democratic
incumbent, William A. Ashbrook,
scraping by with a majority Of only
5.455 votes in district Of quarter
Of million inhabitants. The Re-
publican vote in 1893 represented a
gain over 1886. This year. the trend
continuing, the Republicans boosted
their percentage to 546. or 72 more
than in 1888, and thus added one
to their seats in the House. The
result was hailed by the Republicans
as the best tangible indication to
date that the anti-administration
tide evidenced in the elections of
1898 will rise this year to a height
sufficient to give them a national
victory.
Some Wishful Thinking.
In this, of course, as in all politi-
cal calculations, there is deal of
wishful thinking, but the by-elec-
tion results, on top of the gains
made by the Republicans in 1898,
do make 1t clear that this years
election-barring some turn in the
war that would tend to unity the
country behind the party in power
will be no walkaway for the Demo-
Gratis. The busy pencil of House
Minority Leader Joe Martin, who
called the turn on the congressional
election results of 1898. has pro-
duced set of figures calculated to
raise the hopes and the morale of
the workers OF his party. Martin
knows that it's not the total votes
that count in figuring election pros
poets, but the percentages of gain
and loss.
The calculations of Martin and
his fellow G. o. P. statisticians start
from the 80-seat congressional gain
OF the Republicans in 1898. This
raised their membership in the
House to 1859. They have picked up
another seat in Ohio. Assuming
they hold the seats they now have,
4s more will give them a majority
of the House, or 2l8 in a total mem
bership Of 435.
Promising Fighting Ground.
Now in 1898. according to the
tables of the Republican Congress
sional Campaign Committee, there
were 10 districts. in addition to the
one just captured in Ohio, where
the Republican candidate failed to
win but got 43 per cent or more
Of the total vote. There are some
80 other districts where the Repub-
lican candidate got close to 40 per
cent Of the total-a little to one
side or the other There are thus
100 districts now represented bv
Democrats which the Republicans
regard as highly promising fight
ing ground
A 7 per cent increase throughout
the closest 10 districts-the same
that they got in the two Ohio dis
tricts-would give the Republicans
the House by q margin of %.
The X in the equation Is the
extent to which the Ohio results
reflect a general condition. That's
why every little straw in the wind,