Evening star., 1940-02-05
By COL. FREDERICK PALMER.

end in sight. Some, who like to
be specific in their prophecies, say
the war will last at least year,
others say two years and others 1t
may last as long as the World War.
Better Business Seen.
Barring the cataclysmic stroke
which will rock the whole world to
its economic foundations, a general
improvement in American business
is foreseen with a gradually enlarg-
ing stream, though no flood, of war
orders. But improvement is not de-
pendent upon an increase of war
orders. Our export trade is certain
to expand in markets from which
the German output is now ex-
cluded. The Department of Com
merce reports are confirming this
promise more substantially as the
weeks pass, especially in South
America.
We have learned that the World
War precedent did not apply in the
early period of this war. A boom in
war orders in the near future de-
pends upon what the soldiers call
movement"
Even the nations which had
thorough military preparation were
short on industrial preparation at
the outset of the war of 1914-1918,
which came comparatively as
lighting burst out of clear sky.
Then. even the supposedly all-wise
German army staff had not foreseen
how colossal industrial demands of
modern war would be.
Immediately the huge armies were
in action. The French had not even
enough rifles for their trained men.
In spite of the huge allowance they
had provided, the Germans were
pressed for more ammunition In the
battle of the Marne. The British
had to arm and equip huge new
army which had been utterly out
of their conception, August !. 1914.
Wars industrial nav was Unsuitable.
The barbed wire required for the
then new trench systems was an
incredibly immense item.
Lines F0ftlne0 IN feSce.
This lesson was not forgotten in
preparation for the present war,
which was long foreseen as newt
able. AS the war of nerves frightened
the nations armed the more vigor-
ously to make ready for the war Of
death. They kept on augmenting
their reserves Of raw materials and
food. Though still being reinforced,
the fortified lines on the Franco.
German frontier were mostly built
in peace.
At the end of the fifth month Of
this war we have had no major
battle, only contact action In its try
ing routine on the Western Front.
Added to the enormous amount of
ammunition in hand at the start
is all the plants have produced in
the five months.
Discounting wishful thinking, and
accepting as mainly correct the re-
ports which ought to be authentic,
Germany, with the probable excep-
ton of oil, may be able to bear the
strain for two years. Bad crops this
year, unless she can draw on Russia
and Rumania, will make Germany
feel hard pinch.
Britain began rationing early, in
applying the World War lesson. In
caring first for her own she would
draw on the resources Of her do
minions and colonies and from
countries where she could utilize the
pound block exchange.
Where we were q large grain and
meat exporting country in 1914, it
is Canada and Argentina which now
have them to spare. Britain would
get her wool from Australia, her
cotton from India, Egypt and else
where. Free exchange was against
us as market.
The allies will continue to buy
more and more planes from US as
long as they will finance the plants
for their production. So far ma
chine tools are the other important
item. All the world seems to de-
mand machine tools. In return fol
them Britain has been supplying
Italy with raw materials.
Nav of War to Open Wide.
But once the war Of land move
ment should begin, once the armies
are in action and prolonged action
the industrial NAV of war will be
more cavernous and unsatisfied than
in the World War. There will be
more mechanism to repair and re-
place, more ammunition needed and
more wastage from planes to the
soldiers shoes and uniforms.
Other production will yield to
strictly war production. Significant
of the cost of sea warfare Is the
taking over of the British shipyards
by the admiralty to replace not only
the loss Of shipping but to make up
for the loss of time in transport by
the convoy system.
The allies are safeguarding their
treasure to outlast the enemy. Com
putations from authehtic financial
sources agree that the allies have
approximately IS, 100000 900 in cred
its, gold reserve and securities which
| could be turned into buying power
abroad. Three-fifths of the worlds s
gold production is mined under the
British flag. Should the demands
become heavy enough the allies will
naturally buy whenever their orders
can be filled.
And our present interest Is to get
our share of Germany's lost mar
ketS.
Released By the North American
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