Evening star., 1940-11-04
Roosevelt
Is
Predicted
40 Stutes and
400 Electoral
Votes Seen
By JAY FRANKLIN.


Every commentator on public
affairs is expected. not unreason-
ably, to state his views on the out
come of an important election and
his reason for holding those views.
I find myself unable to agree with
those who believe that Mr.. Willkie
stands chance Of winning. I can
not even agree with those who sug-
gest that it will be close election,
with Roosevelt winning in a photo
finish. After considering all the
factors and weighing all the evi-
dence within the human limits Of
my individual ability, it is my belief
that Franklin D. Roosevelt will be
reelected in a big sweep Of popular
votes and electoral votes and that
Wendell L. Willkie will go to join
the political shadows with Herbert
Hoover, ALI Landon and other den-
liens of that well-paid and WELL
padded limbo maintained by the
G. o. P. for its defeated standard
bearers.
40 States, 400 Votes.
Coming down TO fgures-since the
public has been taught to expect
statistics-I believe that Roosevelt
will carry about 40 States and will
win about 400 electoral votes, receiv-
ing about SIS per cent Of the popu-
lar vote. Aside from Northern New
England and the tier of four Dust
Bowl States between the Missouri
River and Rocky Mountains, it Is
difficult to see where Mr.. Willkie
can count on regional support in his
campaign for the presidency.
Recent polls and claims do not
seem to me TO be conclusive or even
indicative of public opinion. under
the circumstances which prevail in
many communities, where news.
papers, banks and factories are ac-
lively supporting Mr. Willkie. The
deluge of high-pressure publicity
released by the Republican party is
mere political air-conditioning, does
not reflect a change of climate.
After all, if you hold a lighted
match under the mercury bulb. the
thermometer will shoot up furiously,
but that does not mean that it is a
very hot day. The fundamental
factors in the campaign have not
changed in the last four weeks.
The Republicans have paid for and
are getting a loud noise in favor Of
Mr.. WILKES candidacy. President
Roosevelt is receiving the same
broad, popular support which was
accorded him in 1886 and which
reflects the desire Of the people to
leave well enough alone and not
to change horses in the middle Of
the stream.
Business Good.
Business conditions are good. cor
poration profits are rising. unem-
ployment is declining. farm prices
are fairly good and the country is
at peace. National service has been
accepted quietly and without sub
stantial resentment. The defense
program is going ahead. England
has won the battle Of Britain, and
the Italian attack on Greece is a
sharp reminder that the totalitar-
ians are still on the war-path. The
danger in the Far East is subsiding,
with Japan veering away from the
axis and refraining from an attack
on our sources of tin and rubber
in the East Indies and at Singapore.
Discouragement and defeatism are
growing in Hitler's new Europe and
the substantial solidarity of the
Americas remains unbroken.
That Roosevelt should engage in
active campaigning is further to his
advantage. This is not only be-
cause of the effect of his speeches.
1t is also because a good many peo-
pie resented the apparent assump-
tion that they need not be asked for
their votes by the President, that
their decision was forecloSed and
the result discounted at Washington.
If vote is worth having. it is worth
asking for, and the mon political
campaign" at the White House failed
to take account of this fact. It's
abandonment, moreover, is a reas-
suring sign that the gravity of the
foreign crisis has abated, and that
it is possible for the President to
engage in a personal campaign for
reelection without detriment to the
public service.
AS I have observed before in the
course of this campaign, the contest
between President Roosevelt and Mr..
Willkie is a contest between the
human conscience and the ductless
glands. In time of crisis we know
that the instinct for self-control and
unity is the road to safety, while in
dulgence of fear, greed or hatred is
the road to destruction. Under these
circumstances I see Roosevelt win
ming this election by large decisive
majority.
released by Consolidated News