Glacier County chief., 1940-10-18
ZEN ERAL
HUGH S.
jon N SON
...'...6!!!'!:Hc,'''':'
Washington, d. C
PUBLIC OPINION POLLS

y
tions before they happen. l don't
believe in them. Their accuracy
depends too much on their timing,
the way they are conducted and the
wording of the questions. They can
have great effect to sway voters.
The conduct of them is a private en-
terprise for profit. There is no as
surance of bipartisan or neutral
control of their conduct AS cam
paigns reach climaxes there are few
Americans whose sympathies are
not aroused. It is human nature
for the wish to be father to both con-
viction and conduct-among poorly
paid enumerators also.
These polls do not register secret
ballot. They do not even register
a sample yes" or no" They are
frequently built up on a series Of
more or less technical questions.
sometimes SO framed as to persuade
a particular answer which the emu
merator interprets. In view of their
great influence, it seems to me that
all polls require both investigation
and regulation in the public interest.
They certainly do not deserve to be
swallowed whole.
don't dispute their possible value
~ as some indication of shifts and
trends in public thinking, and (2) as
an even better indication when actu-
al choice closely approaches, and
the simple question is do you favor
X or W"
But the folly of making conclu-
sions on these polls is apparent
Most people don't have time to study
them. A fiat statement such as DR..
Gallup recently made that his study
showed 499 electoral votes for Roose-
welt with AZ states and 80 votes for
Willkie with 6 states, sounds almost
as impressive as the 1886 election
returns when Mr. Roosevelt carried
46 states.
But, however inaccurate, except
as to trend, an examination of this
and other polls shows a surprising
reversal of popular opinion. In 1896,
Mr.. Roosevelt carried 27.4 million
voters to Mr.. Landon's 1876 millions
almost Sc per cent or a majority
of 1913 millions. The poll of Amer
lean Forecasts Inca competitor of
DR.. Gallup 1877 millions
for Mr.. Roosevelt and 2l.2 millions
for Mr.. Willkie-a SO per cent ma
jority, or only 2.5 million majority.
Both poll conductors insist on a 3
per. cent to 4 per cent margin of
error as experienced in their own
performances. Both also report
very large undecided" groups and
DR.. Gallup says: Supplementary
surveys show that as many as q
per cent of Mr.. Roosevelt's current
supporters are not definitely sure
that they will vote for him." Con-
slider the states shown on the Gal
lup poll with less than a 4 per cent
majority CDR. Gallup's claimed mar
gin of error) for Mr.. Roosevelt-all
of which are shown on the Dunn
Survey as safely for Willkie. Con-
slider also that the American Opinion
Forecast Inc. poll is per cent less
favorable to Mr.. Roosevelt than DR..
Gallup's. Consider both of these.
come to no such conclusions. I
don't trust these polls either way.
This is going to be very close cleo
ton. The Democrats are dumb if
they are lulled by this sweet news.
The Republicans are cutters if
they become defeatists because of
any such cheap stuff.
The political practice about these
modern polls is like Shylock with
Portia, to praise them when their
forecast is favorable and curse them
otherwise. l can escape that
charge. ! have long regarded all
these "sampling" polls as public
evil capable of vicious abuse. They
won't tell their exact method. They
resist investigation that would re-
veal more than their general prin-
ciples." These are not enough to
determine whether in the science of
mathematics they stand even on
sound formula of probabilities.
They refer to their record of &C.
curacy. Sometimes it has been re-
markable, but since they do not
claim accuracy within 3 or per
cent and many an election has
turned on less than that, it is not
very convincing-especially since
they are very coy in reporting the
actual number mot the percentage)
of undecided" answers by location.
That clouds their whole result.
There is survey in this country
based on a different method than
''sampling." 1t is called the Dunn
Survey. 1t has been conducted for
years by scholarly, retiring sort of
fellow. It is not poll taken by
part-time agents on theoretically
selected sampling. It is scientific
analysis Of several factors. There
has been no attempts to CONNER
cialize or publicize it. It has been
far more timely. or At least Il has
forecast results far sooner. than