Detroit evening times. (Detroit, Mich) 1921-1958, 1940-12-30
Best Year
In History
re dict e d
Arms Program Believed
Aiding All Areas
BY PAUL MALL0N

WASHINGTON. Dec. 30.-Thc
y biggest year in the nations
history is being forecast for 1871
by all Mr. Roosevelt's ccono-
miSts.
a ceiling has already been
reached on defense goods produc-
ton. Consequently the first six
months of 1871 are likely TO
bounce along on the existing
level But new plant capacity
now being built will begin to
come into the production picture
along about June. The last half
of the year, therefore. will prob
ably bring a continuous climb.
The outlook. of course. is all
based on the defense program.
but none of Mr.. Roosevelt's ex-
perts can see any reasonable
prospect that their calculations
will fail TO be realized. A defeat
for England. a negotiated peace.
in fact any possibility except an
Overwhelming British victory.
would not moderate our defense
needs.
THE- one bad spot in the pic
ture is the loss of our agri-
cultural export markets. Less
than nine per cent of our exports
in November were farm products.
A year ago the figure was % per
. cents
Only IN cotton of all the eX-
portable farm products is the
defense program furnishing any
domestic aid. The demand for
uniforms has inspired a large in
crease in domestic consumption
of this staple.
y But for tobacco. wheat, etc,
these seems little prospect that
increased domestic consumption
can come anywhere near replae-
ing the continental market that
is lost for the duration of the
war.
Our gross exports will in
crease during the year, how
ever. if the British hold out.
They have ordered 81, ZOO, 100000
worth of goods which are yet to
be delivered. Two-thirds of all
our exports are now going to
them. An increase is also being
noted in non-defense material
shipped to Latin America.
TNHE defense stimulus is work
4 ing slowly and spottedly in
some areas, especially in the
farm belt. But its effects are
bound to reach out beyond the
industrial centers into every
line of commercial endeavor
soon.
The Federal Reserve Board
has dug up some figures which
have not been made public in
dicating that retail sales every
where have been running at
boom peak. November in At
lanta was the highest in 10
years. New York and Boston
were the highest in nine years,
and Cleveland the highest in IL
years. Only five times in. nine
years has Minneapolis reached
the November level.
While it is true that most of
the defense money so far has
gone into the industrial areas
and 10 the spots where camps
and new industries are being
located. it is already reaching
most cities and il will eventually
reach all sections.
THE Federal Reserve Boards
L industrial production index
will reach the astounding total
of about 1875 for December. This
compares with 10 in 1929, the
highest previous period of ac-
tivity. Steel. aviation. shipbuild-
ing and machinery are all run
ming at capacity. Shoes and
textiles have felt the pressure
of defense demand. Auto pro-
duction will continue good. Deal
ers will undoubtedly be able 10
sell all the cars that can be
produced,
Employment is at 112. six
points above 1929; pay rolls at
1l6. six points above 1929; de-
partment store sales are at 100.
II points under 1929. The cost
of living is Is per cent under
1929. and prices are Is per cent
less.
Thus after a decade in which
production has been limited by
uninSpiring consumption. the
nation Is entering now an era
which will be limited only by