Evening star., 1940-11-04
By ARCHIBALD M. CROssLEY.


BY ARCHIBALD M. CROSSLEY. 4
Voters of the Nation may not know
the decision in this close finish until
some time Wednesday. A repetition
of the on-Hughes battle of 1916
Is entirely possible. In that year
morning newspapers announced the
election of Charles E. Hughes and
afternoon paper the reelection of
President Wilson. The wartime
President retained office by virtue of
1904 votes. If that number of VIII
son voters in California had swung
to Mr.. Hughes, he would have been
elected with a majority of the elec-
toral college.
Today the situation Is primarily
a battle between the city Of New
York and the remainder of the
State. If New York City piles up
more than enough Roosevelt votes
to offset the Willkie lead upstate.
the States al electoral votes go to
President Roosevelt, and his re-elec-
ton is virtually assured on the basis
of latest poll data. Oregon might
conceivably overcome President
Roosevelt's present our-point lead,
but 1t is not now considered likely
1t is also possible that some small
State like New Mexico might just
barely tip the scales to Mr.. Willkie
But for that to happen Mr.. Willkie
would have to count upon holding all
of his States and taking the pivotal
States now slightly in the Roosevelt
column.
Pivotal States Close.
Capture of New York and Penn
sylvania or New York and Illinois
by President Roosevelt would seem
to assure him the election. In fact,
the combination of New York and
any other large pivotal State would
seem to do it. But the situation
in these States is so close that
few thousand votes will determine
the result and it will be well into
the night before any large State
is completely reported. Considera-
BILE seesawing is anticipated as the
returns pile up. Albany County,
N. Y. with machine organization
should be expected to go to Presi-
dent Roosevelt by a fairly small
margin. Bronx County should be
his by a very large margin. Kings
and New York Counties are ex-
pected to go to President Roosevelt
by about 2 to l, with Queens County
close. quite possibly favoring Mr..
Willkie. The remainder of the State
should go for Mr.. Willkie about
2to-1, except in the counties with
large cities where the margin will
be closer.
In general, in the pivotal group
of States, counties without large
cities should be expected to go for
Mr. Willkie by. roughly, 55 to As.
This situation will vary somewhat
in a few States where major in
dustries are located in small towns
Connecticut counties, for example,
should in general run very close.
Mining counties of Pennsylvania
and Illinois might even go over
to President Roosevelt, wherever the I
farm and other vote is not ex-
tensive enough to match the in
dustrial- vote. Counties with GER
tain types of farms particularly
affected by the A. A. A. may act
differently from others. Race con-
centrations will also have an effect.
Large cities will normally oe found
on the Roosevelt side, or close, but
there will be some instances when
the result including the organized
vote will be on the Republican side
The extent of the expected New
Deal leadership in most cities will
vary from a few percentage points
to a 2-to-l ratio Cities with great
industrial populations, large per-
centages of Negroes, highly or
ganized labor, large Jewish popu-
lation, etc. are expected to run
high for President Roosevelt.
Special Poll of Cities Made.
The election will be decided by
the relative turnout of voters, and
by the choice in large cities. Be-
cause of the tremendous importance
of cities in the final result, a special
poll of them has been taken over
the week end and reported by tele-
graph. Tomorrow, the results of
this last-minute cross-section will
be used with other data to provide
a final roundup.
Eight out of 10 interviewed had