Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-12-22

NEW YORK, Dec. 81 (NANA0.
The impetus that the vast defense
program has given American in
dustry leads editors and economists
of trade publications throughout
the country to predict tremendous
business activity in 1941. Some OF
them believe, with reservation, that
the national income will increase
from this years total of about $74,-
600 900 900 to 100000, 000 Others,
more optimistic, expect it to reach
$1,000 100000
Several industries, according to
the editors, will be buster in 194l
than at any time since the World
War. Yet the continuance of this
teeming activity, with its resultant
plant expansion and increased en-
ployment, depends, some commenta-
tors say. on the fortunes of war.
If Great Britain loses. business ex-
pansion will be checked; if she
keeps on fighting, then continued
industrial expansion is assured.
The opinions of these spokesman
for business and industry, written at
the request of The Star and the
North American Newspaper ALI
ance, follow:
BY ]. A. LIVINGSTON,
STAFF Economist, Business Week.
The year 194l opens with a new
industry in the throes of creation
armament. 1t is the biggest in
dustry to develop in the United
States since the automobile. Cur
rent expenditures on domestic de-
Tense alone amount to about S.
0OOO00000 year lin 1929 the
wholesale value of automobile out
put was less than that.
Great Britain is big buyer OF
ornaments, which adds to the in
dustrial significance of this new
business. British buying is running
at the rate of about $500 900 600
or $4,000, 900, 0O0-embracing all types
of American goods, but mostly air
planes and war materials.
The 194l outlook splits into two
parts: l. If Great Britain loses,
then business expansion will be
checked considerably. A high level
of activity. because of domestic de-
tense needs, will be maintained, but
the impetus for new plant and new
construction will be less.
?. But, if Great Britain continues
in the fight, then continuing in
dustrial expansion is assured. and
income will rise from the
current years level of S74.000, 900 900
to probably $4,000, 100000 or more.
And since current prices are con-
siderably lower than in 1929. an $780,
000,000,000 national income would
command much larger volume of
goods and services. In fact, on a
1929 price basis, the national income
might easily be in the neighbour
hood of $4,000 100000 versus 1925
s82 600, 100000.
On such a large volume of busi-
ness. profits undoubtedly will in
crease despite higher taxes, higher
costs and priorities. The main prob
lem of 194l probably will be to turn
out in sufficient quantity the goods
the armed forces and consumers will
want to buy.
BY FRANK GOULD.
Editor, Manufacturers Record.
Spending of the initial Sl5.000.-
100000 for defense has only started.
and will not get fully under way
until late spring or summer of l94l.
BY that time the gigantic job which
the United States has undertaken
should be in full swing Business
activity for some time will take its
impetus from this spending.
In the meantime. it is likely, ad-
ditional appropriations win be called
for to make America invincible.
Preparedness on such vast scale
will bring about employment of the
idle, as we'll as wide plant expan-
sion and a national annual income
that may go as high as 100 billion
dollars in the next two or three
years.
No forecast for 1941 should over
look that the prosperity upon which
the county is entering is largely due
to the fact that we are filling an
emergency need-our own and Great
Britain sand there will be an in
evitable aftermath when the emer-
gency passes.
BY JULIAN CHASE,
Directing Editor, Automotive Industries.
The year 1910 was one of the most
productive in the automotive in
dustry's history. An estimated 4,625,-
900 motor cars and trucks were pro-
duced in the United States and
Canada, a record exceeded only in
1929 and 1887. This years output
was "a per cent greater than that
of 1899
The outlook for 1941 is definitely
colored by national defense require
ments, but the leaders of the indus
try are confident they have, or will
have, the productive capacity neces-
sary to turn out cars and trucks
for domestic needs and still meet all
defense demands. Any shortage of
raw materials is not generally an
ticipated before the fall of l941, if
at all.
The sales outlook for the first
half of 1941 is bright and gains of
Is to 80 percent in sales of 1941
models are now anticipated.