Evening star., 1940-11-03

TINS Is NE nfULH III q S6TtSS OH
prediction trends by Crossley
Polls.
BY ARCHIBALD M. CROSSLEY.
cross-section polling of 10 pivotal
States last Tuesday gave Mr.. Roose-
welt a narrow advantage in those
States. Allowance for the sure"
States in the South and elsewhere,
however, would increase popular vote
somewhat on the Roosevelt side.
Due to the nvaSy Southern vote,
Mr.. Roosevelt can win the popular
vote and lose the electoral vote.
This poll was taken as Mr.. Roose-
Welt was making his Eastern tours
with a series of nationally broad
cast political addresses.
With the situation so close in sew
eral States that single large city
might shift the State, a large num-
ber of electoral votes hangs in the
balance Two interesting and en-
tirely opposite possibilities are pre-
sented.
/. That Mr. Willkie will be elected
by virtue of majority of electoral
votes, but with well under half of
the total ballots cast.
2. That Mr.. Roosevelt will be re-
elected by a very narrow popular
margin, but with considerable num-
bers OF electoral votes.
Undecided" Vote Small.
Either of these is possible through
particularly effective windup.
One side may do the better job of
getting out the vote A telling radio
speech or an important news event
might swing just enough in each OF
several States to put them over the
line.
The actual undecided vote is
now very small Nearly all of those
interviewed had made a decision of
some kind Not by any meanss all of
these, however. are firm in their
convictions. There are still some
whose answer is probably for
given candidate.
This poll utilizes series Of five
especially developed technlques to
measure the 'undecided' vote: ca
Each informant is asked whether
or not he or she intends to vote at
all (b) His choice is recorded as
"certainS or probable. Co When
. decision has been made the voter
is asked how long ago the decision
was finally reached. and the weekly
trend of decisions is charted. I'D
Names and addresses of those un-
decided are kept for recheck on
~ taA Thncn
give choice are asked to cast
secret ballot. A card and pencil are
provided, and the informant marks
his choice himself, folds the card,
and drops it in a sealed container.
These improvements in method re-
duce the unknown to small num-
ber of people who do not know
themselves how. they will finally
vote And at the same time they
provide certain information helpful
in projecting trends for fore
cast.
Considerable Shifts.
Forecasting is possible, however,
only when the margin between the
candidates permits deviation Of
at least three full percentage points
without disturbing the result. Thus,
when a figure for one party of SO
per cent or less, is given, the re-
suit can only be called a tie. In
this unusual election shifts have
been considerable in short periods,
and a deviation of even four points
Is possible. In New York State,
for example, we know that voters
do not distribute the same way
that population distributes. The
ratio between those voting in New
York City and those voting upstate
varies from one election to another.
To be completely accurate it would
be necessary to read the minds of
the political organization leaders.
The best possible estimate has been
set up for the voter fatio OF city to
upstate, but the turnout may be
more or less than anticipated in