Evening star., 1940-02-06
Of Stors, Men
And Atoms
Notebook Of Science Progress
In Field, Laboratory
And Study
By Thomas r. Henri.

WCCho WALL NC Alol1-Ch2oCCAtS oO AdA 90
the United States is concerned.
Such Is the indication of reports
from all parts of the country to the
Public Health Service, which show that
the dread malady is following very
peculiar pattern. For the past month
is has been burning like slow fire in
the South Atlantic and East South
there has been little change in the
numbers Of new cases reported from
week to week. In other parts Of the
country, however. there have been only
fare-ups lasting a week or so. Com
pairing the flu virus to forest fire,
Public Health doctors say 1t is obvious
that this year it cannot find any great
stretch of dry timber in which to gain
headWay.
When the flu curve began to 60 a
little above normal at the beginning
of winter it was watched with more
than ordinary concern because of the
millions of men In military camps in
European ideal condition for the
disease to spread rapidly and gain in
VII ulCllCC. A1AOp 41OWCfCAS AIdo p1OtCu
false alarm.
Even in the areas most affected, the
Public Health Service charts show there
has been no commensurate increase
either in pneumonia cases or deaths
from pneumonia reported. This is
rough measure Of flu virulence. The
outbreak of a serious epidemic, it is
{no 70 fHa
virulence of the virus, the susceptibility
of the population and the concentration
of susceptible persons.
There is certain average degree Of
resistance in the population at large.
Some persons are probably immune
to the most virulent sort Of virus while
others are susceptible to the mildest.
So, at the start, virus must be suffi-
GENTLY virulent to more than offset the
average resistance.
The virulence increases as the virus
passes from person to person. Hence,
in order to bring about a great epi-
demic, there must be close concentra-
tions at the start of persons whose sus-
ceptibility is relatively low. Once the
virus has gained headway in such
group, however, persons of progressively
higher and higher resistance pass into
the susceptible class.
Provided virus of fairly high viru-
lence gets a start, military camp is
likely to be an almost ideal starting
place for world-sweeping epidemic.
Such was the condition preceding the
1889 pandemic, one of the greatest
disasters that has ever struck the hu
man race.
In the United States alone it took
the lives of 100000 In India, it is
estimated. 100000 died. The inf1u-
enza death rate was greater than that
from all other causes directly or re-
motely arising from the World War
combined.
The great pandemic started, Public
Health Service doctors now believe, in
an American Army camp in Georgia
in October, 1917 At that time the
virus was mild. Few of the victims
contracted pneumonia and died. 1t
looked like one of the local flare-ups
expected every few years. spread of
which was aided by the necessary con-
gestion of living in an Army camp.
Many of the soldiers were sent over
seas in the late winter and early
spring of 1913 Apparently they car
ried the virus with them. It gained
foothold in the much more congested
army camps of France and Germany
and at the front 1t is credited, among
other things, with delaying projected
German drive toward Paris from the
north in the spring Of 1918 and thus
contributed materially to the winning
of the war-but at terrible price to
both victims and vanquished. Even
then it was not so bad, but it kept
going like a forest fire famed by the
wind. Apparently among the French
and German soldiers there were few
with much natural resistance. AS the
virus passed from man to man it
grew more and more virulent. This
can be confirmed experimentally, Pub
lie Health Service doctors say. When
the influenza virus is cultivated in
test tubes it is found that it increases
in virulence both with the quality of
the nutrient solution in which it is
kept and the rapidly Of its transfer
from one test tube to another.
In the army camps the conditions
were ideal. A human being with no
natural immunity was the very best
sort of nutrient solution. The packing
OF human beings made transfer from
one to another very rapid. BY the
late summer of 1918, when 1t began to
attack A. E. F. camps in France, 1t
was so virulent that there were no
means of stopping it and thousands
died. Still it was relatively mild COM
pared to what was to come later.
Somehow or other it got back across
the Atlantic. In October, 1918, the
virus appeared at Commonwealth Pier
in Boston. Europe had returned the
virus many times more virulent than
it had received it. There followed the
worst pandemic since the black death.
It is estimated that there were TO-
| 900, 900 cases in this country alone.
For years it was commonly asserted
that the pandemic had started some
where in Central Asia, made its way
westward through Russia into Germany,
and from thence spread to France.