Evening star., 1940-03-31
Decisive Victory for Either Side
Seen Unlikely in Present War
Psychological Factors Offer Best Chance for Peace
in Conflict Which Experts Feel Armies
Cannot Win in Field
By Capt. B. H. LiddeH Hart.
By Capt. B. II. LiddeH Hart.

LONDON.-How are the British people
standing the psychological strain of the
war? How are the German people
standing it? Is there difference to be
found here such as would provide "assur-
ance Of victory? If so, what is the most
effective way of developing it? If not,
can we find an alternative course that
offers any good solution of the war prob
lem?
The attitude of the British people last
September was very different from that
of August, 1914, showing spirit of re-
signed determination that had scarcely
a tinge of enthusiasm. Yet the definite
outbreak of war was in sense welcomed
by many as a relief from the strain of
the war of nerves" which had pre-
ceded it.
When the war came, the tension of
uncertainty was removed. People found
1t easier to brace themselves to meet
definite danger. The common feeling
was expressed in such remarks as Lets
get it over"-an instructive hope which
does not take account of the historical
fact that countries rarely get over a war
in the way they pictured when they got
into it.
When the expected danger did not ma
terialize, and the war took form that
only few had foreseen, the onset of
boredom was delayed by the state of per-
plexity. Repeated speculation as to
uyhen opJ uhero tho u,a y 1,,o,,la hoc;n l.,
earnest helped to stave off any sudden
psychological slump
Unquestioning Mood Persists.
A comparatively unquestioning mood
persists here after almost seven months
Of war that is surrounded by many
obvious question marks. Enthusiasm
may be rare, but the majority of the
people, in spirit of mingled resignation
and resolution, are as ready to 20 on with
the war as they were to enter 1t, content
to rely on the assurance of victory"
given by their leaders without wondering
how it may be achieved
When we turn to the German side, the
general verdict of discerning neutral OBJ
vailing among the German people the
similarities are, on the whole, greater
than the differences. If there is more
discomfort among the working classes
than here. there is, on the other hand,
more positive enthusiasm among the
Nazi-trained youth of the nation. If
there is in general more grumbling than
here, IT is offset by habit of obedience.
If they have to bear more discomfDrts
and deprivations than the British people,
they are more accustomed to bearing
them-and, in comparison, have suffered
less by the change from peace to war.
If there is, none the less, greater long
ing for peace among the majority of the
population, they do not see how it can
come except through their victory. For
beyond the tightness of the Nazi grip
upon their necks. they see the war, in
its superficial form. as an attack by
jealous rivals upon a peace-desiring
Germany.
When a sober calculation is made of
the strength of the opposing forces, and
Of the way that the fortification of their
respective frontiers has multiplied the
normal advantage of defense in modern
war, there is good reason to conclude
that the issue of this war is more likely
to depend on psychological than on a
military initiative.
Napoleon said that in war "the moral
is to the physical as three to one" He
also said that victory lies with the "big
battalions." How are we to explain such
an apparent contradiction between the
suggestion that the psychological factors
can discount superior strength, and the
implication that it is really numbers that
count?
Quality Counts in War.
He himself did not trouble to reconcile
the contradiction, one of many in his
disquisitions on war. Like most of his
kind, he was a muddled thinker More
than most of them, he was inclined, after
winning his battles largely by oppor-
tunism, to concoct an elaborate explana-
ton of how he had won by following, and
improving on, the methods of the old
masters.
There is truth, however, in each of his
statements. Battles have frequently been