The Western news. [volume] (Libby, Mont.) 1933-current, 1940-01-18
Sees Much
Building In
1910 Season
Residential Construction To
Help Restore Prosperity in
Coming Months.
EXPERT CAREFULLY
ANALYZES PROSPECTS

EXPERT CAREFULLY
ANALYZES PROSPECTS
Forecasts OF building activity
in 1910 hold special interest to the
people Of this section, because the
prosperity OF this district is 50 great
ly dependent on busy season in
the lumber industry. Thomas S.
Holden, vice president of the F. w.
Dodge Corporation, writes concern
ing 1910 building outlook in the
New York Suns sfVoice of Bust
ness edition sof January s. Holden
expects a very substantial increase
in building during 1910 over that
of 1899, although that increase will
depend on several factors.
The writer says there has been
a steady increase In total construc-
ton volume for seven consecutive
years, and an increase in residential
construction for six consecutive
years.
He says this is good record of
moderate. gradual recovery that has
not approached in any way the
conditions of speculative boom,
condition unlikely to develop dur
ing the coming year. His article
follows, in part.
Total construction contracts re-
corded in 1888 for the 81 Eastern
States amounted to $l,255, 7O8, 900;
in 1889, $3,355, 10000 preliminary
figure, subject to revision on tab
ulation of final December reports) !,
and, according to the advance esti-
mate here given, $3.50, OOO, 900 in
1910. Residential contracts in the 81
Eastern States totaled $248, 840, 900
in 1884; approximately 81 $40, DOC, 900
in 1899; and, ii advance estimates
are realized, $3.50, O00, 900 in 1910
The stimulus given to residential
building in recent years by i'm
proved me-financing machinery
and reduced home financing costs
cannot be expected to continue de-
veloping new markets for houses
unless il is aided by increased ma
tional income and generally in
creased purchssing power.
Outlook Very Promislnx
Fortunately, the prospect for gen.
orally increased business and indus
trial activity, employment and ma
tional income in 1910 appears to be
very good. An upward movement
was already in progress before the
war declaration The Federal Re-
serve Boards adjusted industrial
production index rose from 90 in
April and May to 102 in August In
September it jumped to Ill and the
rise continued at rapid rate
through October, November and the
first part of December Many econo-
mists, doubling whether the high
rates of the final four months of
1899 can be maintained, visualize
the possibility of temporary set
back in the first part of the new
year. Nevertheless, the odds in
favor of an average volume higher
than that of 1899 are very good in
deed.
It is on the basis of this antici-
pated general business improvement
that T. w. Dodge Corporation has
estimated for 1910 an increase of ii
per cent over 1889 in dollar volume
of private construction. II this in
crease should actually take place, it
would probably include increases in
commercial, manufacturing and res
idential buildings and in privately
owned electric utilities. The esti-
mated increases for these several
classes of projects are as follows:
commercial buildings, Is per cent;
manufacturing buildings, Al per
cent; privately owned utilities, DC
per cent. The estimates for man
ufacturing buildings and the utili-
ties are very largely gamblers
guesses; the percentages seem high
because they are figured on rela-
lively low 1899 volumes. Decisions
to let contracts on industrial and
! power plant expansion projects are
made by a relatively small number
of people and plans of the most
comprehensive nature may be adj
vanced or deferred in accordance
with the business sentiment of the
moment. 1t seems likely that in
creased private building volume will
tend toward concentration in the
busiest industrial centers, those
which are likely to be more fully
employed and more prosperous thar
centers largely dependent upon ag
ricultural prosperity, even though
areas of the latter class may benefi
somewhat by higher prices Of agri
cultural products. No doubt, some
busy industrial cities will develoT
housing shortages, as well as need.
for plant expansion and modernizec
or expanded commercial space.
Neutrality Essential
These estimated increases in pri
vate construction are, natural,
predicated on two assumptions il
addition to the expected improve
ment in industrial activity. The frs
assumption is that the United State
will maintain Its neutrality through
out 1910, that there will be no con
demonstrating catastrophe il
Europe, and that there will be n
greatly increased RECOMMENDATION b
Government of our industry, bust