Evening star., 1940-11-03
Balkan Deadlock

O0tN0u 0S0ASOSN
The Balkan crisis precipitated by
Italy's sudden attack on Greece Is
maturing to a point where one can
discern the new strategic and diplo-
matte Set-up that is involved. OF
course, like a railroad timetable, it
is subject to change without notice"
Nevertheless, for the moment, two
outstanding facts seem to be clear.
In the first place. the Greco
Italian conflict tends to be localized.
For various reasons, Greece's Balkan
neighbors are not joining in the fray.
Also, Germany is letting Italy do the
Job MusSolini started without carry
ing any share of the load. Lastly, it
is pretty obvious that Britain is not
going to send large expeditionary
force to the Greek mainland, con-
fining her assistance to naval and air
support, plus probable landings OF
marines in Greek islands useful for
air or naval bases. AS for the cam
paign itself, inclement Autumn
weather is begging down Italian mil
itary operations. Greece's best COM
mander seems to be General Mud.
The most clarifying official utter
ance in the current situation is the
address made by President 1smet
Inonu before the Turkish Parlia-
ment From this fortnight pro-
nouncement of Turkeys foreign pol
icy, two statements are especially
significant. After saying that Turkey
would continue to adhere to its posi-
ton of non-belligerency," President
Inonu lauded the close understand
ing with Soviet Russia as the cor
nerstone of Turkish foreign policy
and a factor making for stability.
Following this was an equally lauda-
tory reference to "our ally, Great
Britain" and he amplified this by
saying: 1T is my duty to proclaim
that the bonds of alliance which
unite us to her are solid and un-
breakable" This official coupling of
Russia and Britain as the joint bases
of Turkish non-belligerency would
seem to indicate that no agreement
between Russia and the Axis powers
for a division of the Near East has
as yet been arrived at, and that
Stain maintains his attitude Of in
scrutable reserve. 1t also implies that
if Turkey is attacked by the Axis,
she can defend herself with British
aid, since there should be no dan
ger of a Russian stab in the back.
This, in turn, renders extremely un-
likely any German attack on Tur-
key in the immediate future. In face
of Anglo-TurkiSh resistance, backed
by Russia's benevolent neutrality,
such move would be tremendous
military operation. Even with Bull
garian aid, 1t would be highly dan
gerous until Greece is conquered by
Italy, the new German-controlled
Rumanian army is reorganized, and
Germany's supply lines across Gen.
tral Europe are perfected. Also, the
weather for campaigning across Tur-
key is unfavorable for a major Of
fensive at this time of year.
Turkey has practically warned
Bulgaria not to strike Greece in the
flank, thus releasing the bulk of the
Greek army for service against the
Italian invasion. AS for the remain
ing Balkan state, Yugoslavia, her
Prime Minister has officially pro-
claimed a policy of "strict neutral
ity' in the conflict between Greece
and Italy, both of whom are de-
scribed as sincerely friendly" ma
tions. The Yugoslav frontier is the
weak spot in .Greece's defense line.
If Yugoslavia should permit Italian
troops to pass through her territory,
especially down the Vardar Valley
to Salonika, Greek defense would
speedily collapse. However, there is
at present no sign of this, although
the way British subjects are begin
ming to leave the country on the ad-
vice of their consuls is a rather du-
bious omen for the future.
These considerations lead to the
conclusion that temporary balance
of forces exists in which the ring iS