Evening star., 1940-07-19

observer NeCoIIS Forecasts
Of LincoIn's Defect
For Second Term
To the Editor of The Star:
Just now there is widespread dis
position, believe, to underestimate
President Roosevelt's chances for re-
election. I make this observation as a
former newspaper correspondent who,
for many years, was responsible for such
political matter as appeared in the Chi
cago Daily News, New York Sun and
other newspapers with which I was
associated. I trust will be not con-
sidered immodest when recall that
just after the Baltimore convention of
1912 I predicted that President Taft
would carry but two States in the Union
Vermont and Utah-and after had
retired from newspaper work Gin 1920 I
predicted very early in the campaign Of
1882 that President Hoover would not
carry to exceed four States. The first
prediction was made to Joe Sinnott, the
present sergeant at arms Of the House,
and others. later published in either the
Fourth Estate or Editor and Publisher;
the second prediction was published in
the Atlanta Journal in September before
the election. I had made the prediction
to my law partner who, while in At
lanta on professional business, repeated
1t to the Journal. That newspaper
printed 1t and after the election COM
mented upon the accuracy of it. I
have always been interested in political
trendtS-not as a partisan but as an
observer.
For that reason and from my ex-
perience firmly believe that the Re-
publicans underestimate the Presidents
political strength which is likely to
grow due to world events, rather than
diminish. 1t is interesting to recall the
discouraging outlook for. Mr.. Lincoln's
reelection in 1864. The President was
being subjected to wave Of criticism
and being made the victim Of political
planning in his own party that caused
him to reach the conclusion that he
could not be reelected and to plan for
such contingency. His closest friends
shared his political forebodings. Early
in the campaign Leonard SWEET, a lead
ing Illinois Republican, wrote to his
wife:
THE malicious foes of Lincoln are
calling or getting up Buffalo conven-
ton to supplant him. They are Sum-
ner. Wade, Henry Winter Davis, Chase,
Fremont Wilson, etc. = .
THE most fearful things are probable.
I am acting with Thurton Weed, Ray
mond, ETC.. to try to avert. There is
not much hope.
Unless material changes can be
wrought, Lincoln's election Is beyond
any possible hope. 1t is probably clean
gone now
The above. reproduced in Ida M.
Tarbells Life of Lincoln" also re-
f1ected the attitude of Mr.. Lincoln
himself.
The author writes at page 201 part I,
Second Vol0, Tarbell's Life of Lincoln:
Lincoln himself had made up his
mind that he would be defeated. What
would be his duty then? 1t was so
clear to him that he wrote It down on
slip of paper:
Executive Mansion.
Washington, Aug. %, 1864.
This morning, as for some days past
it seems exceedingly probable that this
administration will not be reelected.
Then it will be my duty to so cooperate
with the President-elect as to save the
Union between the election and the in
auguration; as he will have secured his
election on such ground that he can
not possibly save it afterward
a. LINCOLN"
The author comments:
He folded the slip and when the
cabinet met he asked the members to
put their names on the back. What
was inside he did not tell them. =
He laid the paper away, compact with
his conscience in case Of defeat"
The result of the election Of 1864 is
history.
The country is now passing through
crisis as grave or graver than when
Lincoln wrote. 1t is likely to be
intensified as the political campaign
progresses The favorite slogan of the
second Lincoln campaign was:
1T is bad thing to swap horses while
crossing stream"
The writer holds no brief for either
party. I am an observer. When the
late Col. Roosevelt offered me, as a
member of the New York Sun staff, an
important place in his re-convention
campaign in 1912, I declined with the
remark that I was a newspaper man
recording political history; not a poll
tlcian making it. It is in that spirit
I look upon present trends.
July Is. JERRY A, MATHEWS.
Wants World Made Safe
For Human Freedom,
To he Editor ofT The