Imperial Valley press., 1940-01-01

outfits, and shipyardS will be work
ing at top speed in the next few
months. Soft coal miners Will be
much buster than a year ago. Me-
tai mines are slated for a big six
months. Steel mills should average
above 80 per cent of capacity. More
autos than in any similar period in
three years will trundle off the as
sembly lines-well over 100000.
Railroads are in for their first half
year since 1880.
Let Down For Consumer Lines
Activity in chemical electrical
equipment, farm tool, furniture, pa
per, tire and rubber, and metal
plants should top the early months
of 1899. Use of electricity and pc
troleum products is destined to set
new all-time records. A let-doWn
from current boom levels in such
consumer lines as textiles and shoes
would not be surprising Woolen and
rayon plants, however will continue
full blast. With industrial activity
wide open, service businesses will
be in the clover and professional
men will see the best collections in
many months.
Business Outlook For
First Half of 1910.
Steady to higher payrolls in in
dustrial centerS, therefore, should
hold the purchasing power spot
light In addition, farmers will have
more money to spend. I do not
foresee any runaway gains in farm
product prices such as we had in
the World War. Yet, heavier de-
mand and higher consumer buy
ing power should bolster up prices
to the tune Of 10 per cent over the
first half of 1889 Wheat, corn, and
other grains will lead the parade.
Fresh vegetables and potato far
merS can look ahead to good year.
Farm Income Up
Beef, lamb, and pork will not sell
much higher than in the early
months of 1889 do not foresee any
big gains in butter, cheese, eggs,
milk, poultry, or fruits. Cotton eX-
ports are rising sharply and demand
is tremendous. This indicates that
King Cotton is getting a new lease
on life. Consequently, farm income
ought to be 10 per cent higher than
in the same months last year
The drought in the west in a very
serious factor. The moisture situa-
ton is the worst on record at this
season. If it gets no drier, however,
it could easily lift, rather than 10
Wer, total farm income. Barring a
continuation of the drought, total
production on all farms in 1910 may
be close to the 1899 figure. The in
crease in prices will not be all graz
for the farmers, however Their
costs will go up through perhaps
not so much as their prices. With
farm profits a bit better, farm land
values should continue to edge up
little.
"Oomph" in Prices
Il addition to higher farm prices,
industrial raw materials should also
push upward in early 1910 War,
high industrial activity, and rising
buying power will put the "oomph"
in the price picture. Hides, cocoa,
gasoline, and paint materials can
have the sharpest boosts. Increases
in wool, rayon, sugar, steel, lumber,
and non-ferrouS metals are a good
bet assuming business activity
holds up. Coffee, hard coal, cement.
and glass will do well to hold their
own. One of the interesting points
about this current boom in the re-
markable stability of prices of all
kinds.
This desire to keep the lid on
prices is good news for consumers
Their living expenses are not going
to change much in early 1910. Food
is the only hot spot. l will be sur
prised, however, if your weekly
market bill next June is more than
five per cent higher than it is now
Clothing will not advance more than
five per cent. There is no reason to
forecast serious advances in fuel
oil, coal, or rents for the first half
OF 1910. Rising lumber and labor
costs will make furniture a little
more expensive. The sum total of
all this means that living expenses
should stiffen by only two or three
per cent during the first six months
of 1910.
Brisk Gains in Trade
With only a modest Step-up in
living expenses and an increase in
consumer intake, retail trade will
be better. A gain of eight per cent
sounds about right to me, if the in
crease is measured in dollars. Only
about four per cent more goods will
be sold, hoWever,-the other four
per cent being accounted for by
mark-upS on price tags. Luxury and
seml-luXury lines should register the
biggest step-ups in sales if this
three months is any barometer.
Store profits ought to be salts
factory with inventories in fairly
good shape. The successful mer-
chants will be those who take ad-
vantage of the big opportunities
of early 1910 by initiating their
advertising budgets. Promotion out
lays should be upped at least IS per
cent. Those salesmen who have been
| lo4Vliuly uOlIlB Jllell lilloSlOfldTy y
work the last two years will cash
in with the biggest commission
checks since 1929!
Busy Period for Builders
Another key industry which should
see big things in the next six months
is construction. Building commits
sioners will be busy okaying 10 to
Is per cent more contracts than in
the same period of 1899. Public
building will be shaken down about
10 per cent; but this drop will be
more than offset by big jumps in