Evening star., 1940-03-18

lacles. but there
Charles G. Ross. is one other
point that needs to be made before
the subject is left.
Both Miss Thompson and her sup
port say, or imply. that the New
Dealers and the labor unions have
been initiating the unemployment
figures in order to justify wastefuI
spending, and that the Republicans
have been initiating them in order
to show what mess the New Deal
has made. They say that for the
true figures you have got to 20 to
impartial economists whose only
concern is to chart a safe course
for business. The statistics of the.
Government agencies. in this view
OF the matter, need to be heavily.
discounted, and those who use them.
to refute Miss Thompson's findings
are Jumped together-by one writer
AS ink singers in the service Of
the New Deal.
The fact may be passed over
that the private economists" and
responsible experts" who by a sim
pie arithmetical process have fer
reted out the truth about unemploy-
ment are yet to be publicly named.
1t would be interesting to know who
they are. They exist up to now only
as anonymous gentlemen Of infal-
liole prescience and complete devo-
ton to the truth. Who are these
experts whose comforting conclu-
slons about the number of people
out OF work are being exploited as
the only simon-pure article?
Industrial Conference Board,
But the point I should like to
make Is that it is not the Govern
ment statisticians and the labor
unions alone that estimate a total
present unemployment of around
10000 900.
One of the leading statistical aRen-
cies Of the country. in this field of
unemployment and the general eco
nomic condition Of the country, is
the National Industrial Conference
Board OF New York This is long
established organiza ton. and 1t has
no connection whatsoever with the
Government or with any labor union.
1t is privately financed by some of
the largest irdustrialists of the
country-leoders of business who
are. one would think. quite as inter-
ested in getting at the truth, un-
adulteratei by anv political con-
slcerat1on, as are the clients Of the
unnamed experts relied upon By
Miss Thomson ard her support. It
is not to be believed thpt the hard
he2ced gentlemen who rut up their
mcnev for TIE N. I. c. B. vcul1 have
Kent it in existence this long time
II they had not found reason, in its
record, to trust its conclusions.
Let us therefore throw all the
Government and all the labor-ur1ion
calculations cut the window and
accept only those of the N. &C. B.
They show preliminary estimates)
that the total labor force of the
country in January Of this year was
54,769 600 and that out of this num-
Der 45,473, 900 persons were EMPLOYED
and 9,296000 were UNEMPLOYED.
The unemployment total. according
to these figures, dropped in October
last to 000-its lowest level
since 1887 Since October there
has been month-by-month rise to
the Januerv figure as stated. The
boards unemployment figures in
clude, Of course, the W. P. A. workers.
The board gets its unemployment
figure for any given wear by taking
the total labor force available and
subtra citing from it the number en-
ployed. Miss Thompson followed
this method, too, in calculating the
number If unemployed in December,
1899. as result of population in
crease, but she underestimated the
total labor force. She estimated
that the labor force had increased
only 100000 in 10 years. Actually,
because Of changes in the age COM
position of the population, the in
crease in the labor force during the
10-year period was much larger.
There is no space here for the de-
tails, but the pertinent fact is that
there are now relatively more peo-
pie OF working age than there were
10 years ago.
A 100000 Error.
Like all the responsible statisti-
clans who have put a signature
to their work. the National Indus
trial Conference Board takes this
fact into account and estimates that
the 10-year increase in the labor
supply was not $500 900, but around
100000 This one error on Miss
Thompson's part-there were others
accounts, according to the figures
OF the N. I. c. B., for 100000
mistake in her total
Such. then. are the findings OF
an agency which can hardly be ac-
cused Of suppressing the truth IN
order to help the New Deal. The
writer has just gone through a long
statement by the N. I. C. B. telling,
In detail. its statistical methods To
describe these would be a dull and
tedious business: suffice 1t that the
methods are most comprehensive
and are based on long experience.
The results. one would think, are
entitled to more credence than the
tablecloth computations Of the
Grouse" or even the conclusions
| OF tne newly puDlc1Zed anonymous
experts. One wonders, again, who
they are.
incidentally. there's no defeatism
In the N. I. c. BIS analysis of its
figures. It says that the compara-
lively low level to which unemploy-
ment dropped in the recent past
(notably the summer of 193O proves
that "the economic system possesses
dynamic powers Of recuperation."
So 1t does, but, as the board real
izes, there's nothing to be gained
for recuperation by prettifying the
facts.
OF the traffic deaths reported for
January Of this year in So States. Is
had death totals below January,
1899; 18 had increases and 3 showed