Evening star., 1940-03-10
Uncertainty Shrouds
, Wars Future Course
By ODen L. Scott.


can supply, are as much at sea over the
probable future character of Europe's
war as the person with little or no inside
information. They do know that the
time now is at hand for the long -adver-
tised spring offensive" But is there
going to be an offensive?
A positive answer still is not possible.
But, so far as military intelligence re-
ports disclose, moves are not being made
by the belligerents that would suggest
full-dress mass attacks on the western
front. Both sides obviously hesitate to
sacrifice hundreds of thousands of men
in an attempt to discover whether the
Notifications of the other can be pene-
trated. Unless confident of success
neither is likely to venture.
Somewhat the same situation exists in
Eastern Europe. Germany has no desire
to use her army in that region-a region
she depends upon to supply her with
many vital raw materials. The allies OBJ
viously want to stir up trouble to prevent
Germany from getting these raw mate
rials and yet they are hardly in posi-
ton to build a military front so far from
their own base of supplies, unless they,
could count absolutely upon Mussolini.
AS result, the weight of expert opin-
ion here inclines strongly to the idea that
the war will continue for while longer
to be fought in the economic field.
This means: More and more effort on
the part Of Britain and France to shut
sources OF supply to Germany, both
through blockade and through purchase
OF materials that otherwise would 60 to
Germany. Also: More and more effort
on the part of Germany to strangle Brit
ain with greatly increased air and sub
marine attacks on shipping and more
and more effort to open and maintain
supply routes in the Balkans and through
Italy.
Reasons that may lead to an extension
and deepening of war in the period just
ahead are set down by the experts as
these:
l. A conclusion by Germany that she
needs air and submarine bases nearer to
Britain, leading to an attack on H lland
and Belgium in order to gain those bases
O. A conclusion by Britain and France
that necessity forces an effort to cut
German supply lines from Russia, lead
attack on shipping in the Black Sea and
an attack by air on Russian oil fields.
g. A conclusion by Britain and France
that necessity forces an effort to cut
German supply lines from the Scandi-
navian Peninsula, leading to large-scale
help for Finland and then to pressure
on Norway and Sweden.
a. conclusion by Germany that the
alternative to a desperate drive for quick
victory is gradual strangulation as a
result of the allied blockade. leading to
smashing offensive that would be de-
signed to give quick victory.
AS matter of fact, best-informed
opinion is that both sides can hold out
indefinitely in the kind of warfare that
has gone on since last September. The
German attacks on shipping have not
been sufficient to do more than embarrass
the British. The British and French
blockade of Germany has done little
more than test the ingenuity of the
Germans
1t is notable that sales of American
goods to neutral nations bordering on
Germany have increased in sensational
fashion since the war began An even
greater increase has occurred in the
sales of Latin American and other neu-
trail nations to these countries bordering
on Germany. The reasonable assump-
ton is that at least part of these goods
are finding their way to the Germans.
Then, too, the reports our officials have
are TO the effect that the Germans have
been rather successful in using airplanes
to help their ships run the British
blockade.
The allies should gradually be able to
close these loopholes. The question is
whether the closing can be done before
the Germans find ways to improve their
supply sources in Rumania and Yugo-
slavia and Russia. This Governments
economists are inclined to scoff at Russia
as a base of German supplies, but the
military men are less given to scofing,
on condition that Germany has time to
give technical direction to Russian ef-
forts
Warfare, however, certainly is not 60
ing to center altogether in the economic
field. Everybody apparently expects
that military operations will speed up in
many directions even though there is not
the sort of land offensive that has been
so well advertised.
Air warfare doubtless will gain mo-
mentum. In this field the Germans con-
tinue to have an advantage, both in the
production of military planes and in the
opportunity to use those planes. The
reason is that the airplane can be used
by Germany to attack allied shipping,
while Britain and France can retaliate
only by return attacks on highly armed
German naval bases. The Germans
have no great amount of ocean shipping.
If the allies start to attack German in
dustrial cities then they bear the onus
of starting air war on civilians.
Britain and France may be forced into
air attack of this kind. They have an
advantage in being able to jump off from
points in France right next door to Ger
man industrial centers. But there is
every reason to believe that Germany
still has definite superiority in air power
and would be able to give in return more
powerful blows than she receives The
best available figures on production of