Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-09-08

MuCIi vi IcCcilt pOuIlCdl CUIIlHlcIlI has
turned on the existence of political tides
in American political history. but we
have had no statistical demonstration of
them. Consequently, the various stu
dents of and commentators on political
affairs hold different notions as to how
long these tides last, what is the rate Of
progress of a political tide at a given
moment and the amount of influence
business, war, third parties and other
political factors may have on q political
trend The duration of these tides has
been variously given as 8, IL or 20 years.
1t is possible to obtain clearer ideas
on these questions than those generally
held, but to do so we must establish
measure of these tides. Prof. Schlessing,
in the winter 1910 issue of the Yale Re-
view, has reviewed the duration of lib
eral and conservative tendencies in
American politics and finds that periods
of liberalism, when the dominant con-
Germ in legislation was with human is
sues, and periods of conservatism, when
legislation concerned chiefly property
rights issues, have succeeded each ether
alternately. These periods have differed
in duration, but on the average they
have lasted about IS to Is years. Ac-
cording to this sequence, we are now
supposed to be in liberal political tide,
which began in 1881 and is therefore
due to last through most of the 1940s.
House Provides Key.
Our political tides may be measured
more definitely than this and more
quantitatively. One measure may be
conveniently derived from the party
membership in Congress. Membership
in the House, subject to biennial cleo
tons, offers more comprehensive sta
tistical record than membership in The
Senate. Over the years, the total men,
bership in Congress has increased in pro-
portion with the total population To
take this growth factor into account, we
may resort to the simple device of deal
ing with the Democratic or Republican
percentage of total membership. This
gives US single series of simple figures
which we can analyze for the existence
of tides and their characteristics This
sort of measure of political tides is more
realistic in view of the general interest
in party control of Congress, which de-
termines the character of legislation.
Another measure OF political tides may
be derived from the party percentages in
the total popular vote for President over
long period This series has only half
as many episodes as congressional cleo
tons and to that extent is less adequate
for our purpose of discovering and meas
uring statistically the nature of political
swings. Results based on some OF these
data are shown in the chart at the bot
tom of this page. The chart shows Dem
ocratic percentages of the popular two
party vote cast for President with the
Democratic House membership percent
ages for the presidential years only, so
that the close relation between the two
may be observed.
What the Record Shows
A close study of this record published
for the first time, in book on Ballot
Behavior" by the American Council on
Public Affairs reveals the following sig
nificant facts:
l. The year 1886 marked the highest
position attained in Congress by the
Democratic party. In that year it had
70 per cent of the two-party member
ship
2. This may be compared with five
previous dominant positions: 1872 1890.
1882, 1874 and 1856. The Democratic
party had a membership Of 70 and u
per cent, respectively, in 1912 and 1890;
63 per cent in 1882 and 1874 and SO per
cent in 1856.
8. The years of smallest Democratic
membership were 1920, 1849 and 1864,
the respective percentages being 81, 80
and "a
4. These high and low years and the
entire 84-year period reveal an upward
tendency in the Democratic proportion
in Congress. During the 1866 and 1865
the Democratic percentage f1uctuated
around an average of about 20 per cent,
but during the past two decades it has
f1uctuated around higher norm" of
about SIS per cent.
S. This measure of the political pen
dulum has not swung regularly and is
not in itself indicative of what It's
course will be for 1910 and after. Meas
ured from peak to peak of Democratic
dominance, there have been since 1854
four major swings of the pendulum; the
first swing took Is years. the second is
years, the third % years and the fourth
"a years
6. The first swing in this record took
place between 1856 and 1874. The Demo-
Gratis lost power with the depression of
1858 and returned to power with the
depression of 1874
7. The second swing took place be-
tween 1874 and 1890. Democrats contin-
ued to dominate Congress during most of
these years from 1874 to 1892 and the
pendulum did not swing into a Demo-
cratic low phase as it had done in the
1865. This period may in fact be de-
scribed by two 8-year swings of the
pendulum instead of one 16-year swing.
8. The third definite swing occurred
after 1890, brought on chiefly by the de-
preston of the 1905, and it brought the