Henderson daily dispatch., 1940-03-01
EsIsaa Says Slump
Il BE Reverse.
iContinued Erum Page Ouel

I.
in Florida within the last few days.
IAN are agreed that Industrial uctivi-
/ ~ has Stacked Off since the turn of
! the year; but they also report that
Iretail trade and service businesses
! have been moving along at, Ur near,
/ the top rate Of recent months. The
Babsonchart confirms these reports.
| II has dropped from its peak Of 1908
IN December to 1870 at the present
time. This represents Il total decline
OF only six per cent.
Steel OIL TObOggan Slide
The biggest part of this six per
cent loss is accounted for by very
sharp slowing down in on industry
steel and allied lines. Steel opera
tionS have plummeted from 81 per
cent Of capacity in mid-December to
SO per cent at current writing. This
is the lowest operating rate since
last summer. The decline has COM
pletely erased the sensational sky
of steel operations last fall.
Moreover, new steel orders are COM
ing through SO slowly that at the
moment they are not sufficient to
maintain operations even at the pre-
sent rate. | believe, however. that
there will soon be pickup.
Other pivotal industries such as
textiles. shoes, paper, and lumber
have shared in the decline from the
December peak While January motor
assemblies hit new all-time peak
for any January in history, they have
been slowing down since. However,
there have been no such drastic de-
clines in the above group Of indus
tries as in steel. Textiles are off 10
per cent, freight traffic Is per cent,
power five per cent-the average
probably being less than 10 per cent.
Trade Holding Well
Meanwhile, mail order and depart
ment store merchants all over the
country report good retail trade. The
early Easter this year may account
for part of the current gain over
a year ago, but it does not explain
the entire step-up in sales tempo.
Much of the gain can be credited to
a substantial Improvement in factory
payrolls, farm income, and investors
Idividends-all Of which are chugging
along well above last years figures.
Retail prices are four per cent above
the level Of last March, while in
creased public buying power has
pushed total dollar sales up even
higher
Sparkplug Of last falls boomlet was
the sudden revival of the heavy in
dustries. This put the "oomph" in the
1889 recovery. Biggest worry of bust
ness men with whom l have talked is
the current slackening in these in
duStrieS. The gloom-mongers fear
that the heavy businesses such as
railroad equipment, road building
machinery, steel and iron, construc-
ton, and similar lines will sink in
their bog Of inactivity. My opinion
is, however, that the backlog of war
business on hand will make 1910 a
good year for these industries-With
or without further large allied orders.
Decline Sooner Than Expected
My outlook for the first half of
1910 called for the best six months
period since 1929, but at the same
time for downward dips The drop
since the turn Of the year came
iquicker and has been sharper than
/ anticipated, but the winter has also
been more severe. Billiards have tied
up business from Hudson Bay almost
to the Gulf Of Mexico and from coast
to coast. Nevertheless, business is
still II per cent above a year ago
which is in line with the 10 to Is
per cent gain that l predicted More
over, | agree with the summary of
the Florida Business Conference that
the doWntrend should soon be halted
and the background laid for renewed
advance.
I The European situation and the I'M
certainty Of our own political picture
have given business men another at
tack Of the filters. When the current
period OF 'Watchful waiting" will
end, no one dares forecast, but that
il must end sometime everyone is
agreed. When it does, il will sign off
with just as big a bang as similar
periods have finished up in the past.
My message today, therefore, is: Do
not be caught mapping when the time
to move comes. With business fluc-
tuating in these short, sharp cycles,
you must be ready 10 work fast when
the business light turns green.