The Wrangell sentinel., 1940-08-09
ON NTFELE
WASHINGTON FIR0NI
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By MORGAN N. BEATTY AP Feature Service Writer

AP Feature Service writer
 WASHINGTON Aug 9-Behind the nominations of Charles McNary and Henry Wallace for Vice-Presi- dent is a battle for 3,OOO,O0O votes.
 The master minds figure the Me Nary selection is the Republican way os asking eo-ealled farm states to stand fast for 1940 or even in crease the Republican showing in the 1898 off-year elections.
 And they figure the President wanted to run with Wallace as Democratic push to gain back ground lost to the COP in 1888.
 Here's the way the master minds have it:
 Between 1886 and 1898 nearly 3,0OO,00O votes cut loose from the Democratic party and attached themselves to the Republican party in the farm belt. The Republicans want to keep 'em where they are. The Democrats want to get 'em back.
 The Vote Turned Over q loose term. But it covers the nations midriff, lying like a half moon a. cross the map.
 It's northern limit is the Canadian border. It's bottom rests on the cot ton belt Roughly it lies between Montana and Pennsylvania.
 The 16 states in the belt are Mon tana, Wyoming, North Dakota, So. Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minne- sota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, H. linois, Kentucky, Michigan, Indi- ana, Ohio and West Virginia.
 In 1886 the Roosevelt sweep car- ried all those states. On the average the vote was so per cent Democratic, almost 40 per cent Republican.
 But in the 1888 off-year elections, the pendulum swung much of theI way back-more than half way. The Republicans got 51 per cent of the vote, the Democrats little over 40.
 The rest was scattered among In-| l dependents, Farmer-Laborites, Pro-| gressives.
 The swing accounted for 2,700,-| 900 votes In short, 2,700,000 peo- pie who voted for the Democrats in 1886 changed and voted Republican | in 1888.
 So, assuming the vote sloughs off about 25 per cent during off-year elections, both parties are going to have to fight for 3,O00,000 votes, or more in the farm belt.
 On the basis of past performances, the Republicans have the inside track. Ever since 1910, off-year gains have been a harbinger of victory in the next Presidential election.
 In 1910, the Democrats picked up 46 new seats, won majority in Con- gress. Then they voted in Wilson in 1912.
 In 1918, the Republicans gained 26 seats, took over a House major l ity. That foreshadowed the Hard ing victory in 1920
 Again, in 1880, the Democrats gained 54 House seats, forged into the majority column. Roosevelt won his first victory in 1892.
 In the 1888 turnover, the Repub- licans netted 80 seats in the House, although they didn't reach a major ity. Strangely enough, nearly all of those gains were either within the farm belt states or bordered on them.
 The Republicans picked up IA goyernorships. Most of them were in the farm belt.
 All of this adds up to the fact that the farm vote may tell the tale in 1940.
 Natural it was, then, that the Re publicans should name Charles Me- Nary, co-author of the McNary-Hau- gen farm bill, and champion of the kind of farm legislation that gives the farmer protection similar to the tariff protection for laber and i'm dustry
 Natural 1t was, too, for the Dem- ocrats to seek out Henry Wallace, whose farm programs have pried more cash money from the Federal treasury for farmers than any in