Evening star., 1940-03-10
Odds Against Big Offensive in West
British Expert Believes Strong Defenses and Equality
Of Forces Preclude Any Such Action


The prospect OF a spring Of
tef,stpe on the ioestern front.
bringing a great clash OF arms
bet,ueen the allied and German
armies, Is discussed here BY a
Brtton 1pko Is acknowledged to be
one of the greatest liptng scriters
on military strategy. Many OF
hts recommendations hare been
accepted by the British ,oar min
tstry, and his ddpice and su0ges-
tions tDere often sought by the
recently resigned tDar minister,
Leslie Hore-Belislla.
LONDON, March Q (N.A.N.A0.-
Will the coming Of spring bring q
great offensive on the western
front? Or will the unrestful calm
that has prevailed there since the
start of the war, barely ruined by
the French exploratory operations
in September, continue to reign over
the unfought battledelds where some
millions Of men are standing by,
ready for action? In other words.
will the stalemate be authoritatively
recognized by the belligerent par
ties?
While it would be unwise to dis
count the power of the emotional
forces that are seeking violent out
let, reasoned calculation of the odds
against success may well prevail
over this instructive urge. There is
significance in the manifest way
that either party is wishing that the
other would attack, and making the
most Of any sign of such precipita-
ton.
It is natural that those who are
soldiers by vocation should chafe at
the prolonged inaction. Never has
a war of any similar magnitude
begun and continued in such a state
Of general paralysis of the main
armies.
The situation during the first half
year has increasingly deepened the
point of jesting comment made in
September, when one of the news
papers was inviting suggestions as
to a suitable new marching song for
the army: That the most appropri-
ate would be a revival of an old
tune, "All Dressed Up and Nowhere
to Co."
Offended by Prediction.
The natural reluctance of ardent
soldiers to recognize the creeping
paralysis of war was exemplifled by
the criticism which was applied by
them to one of the main conclusions
in my last book, The Defense of
Britain" published just before the
war-that point being the improb-
ability of any successful offensive
by either side on the western front
If war should come. 1t was an Of
fense to their offensive spirit. One
of the leading military journals, rep
resentative of the orthodox school,
denounced 1t in an article entitled
False Doctrine" This ended with
confident assertion that the allied
stats did not accept such a view and
that the allied forces were not like
ly to take the field" without seek
ing to deliver "a knockout blow"
Being a quarterly journal. how
ever. the assurance did not appear
until the allied stats and the all
lied forces had for a month past
confirmed my prediction! Five
months more have since passed
and I should be willing to give the
prediction a further extension.
~ It Is to the credit of serving SOL
diers in high quarters that, what
ever their theoretical inclinations,
they have been more ready than
their predecessors Of 19l4-1918 to
recognize concrete facts. And to
refrain from asking of their troops
a vain sacrifice in attempting the
impossible. How great a tribute that
has been to their common sense
can be realized by a knowledge of
history For the past has many
times shown that there is nothing
more fatal, to an army or a ma
ton. than the instinct to attempt
what 0nnot succeed from the feel
ing that If 1t could succeed it would
be good.
Sighted Defense Training.
This comparatively new profess
sional realism. when brought face
to face with facts, is all the more
creditable by contrast with the pic
ture of a future war which domin-
ated the British Armys training be-
fore the war came. It was in vain
that for q number of years one