Evening star., 1940-05-19
Threat to America
Lies in Pucific
By Owe1 L. Scott.

the United States will escape involve
ment in the European phase of this war.
What had been common assumption
last September, that threat of German
victory would find this country lined up
with the allies, is coming now to be a
rather definite opinion that the United
States will not repeat its 1917 venture.
Reasons for this changed viewpoint are
three: The first is that the United States
in this war very probably will not have
time to get involved and to give decisive
help even If 1t wished to do so. The sec
ond is that there is unlikely to be repe-
tition by Germany of the overt acts
against this country that precipitated
war in 1917. The third is that the United
States has vital interests in the Pacific
that must be safeguarded If commit
ments already assumed are to be fulfilled.
Even Hitler, above all else, fears war on
two fronts at the same time.
Most important of the reasons for ex-
pecting the United States to stay out of
European fighting is provided by Ger.
man strategy.
Hitler is shooting the works this sum-
mer in an effort to get quick decision.
The best informed military view is that
he will succeed or fail in the next six
months, with his chances not far from
f1fty-f1fty. Hitler's expressed opinion is
that 1t Is better to spend million lives
to reach an objective in six months
than to spend three or four million lives
striving for the same objective in two or
three years. The German aim is to turn
the tables on Great Britain-to blockade
and starve out the British before the
British can starve out the Germans.
There is no blinking the fact that
Hitler may succeed. Few Americans
realize that the German foray into Scan
dinavia cut off from Britain vital sup
plies of iron ore, timber and foodstuffs.
The move into Holland and Belgium af-
fects other vital supplies of foodstuffs.
The threat Of trouble in the Mediter-
ranean is forcing Britain to take longer
haul to get goods from the Near East.
If now the seacoast Of Holland can be
used by submarines and airplanes for
attack on British shipping in the
4AdAlCS, 1lCdl WILL D6 III a SGIls
GUS plight.
The big point is that the United States
will not be able to help the British very
materially in their effort to defeat this
first German move. This country might
have supplied more airplanes, but the
British government delayed buying for
eight months. Now 1t will be another
year before the American aviation indus
try will be producing any sizable quantity
OF airplanes. The United States is amaz-
ingly unprepared to supply other forms
OF military equipment. Out of 1900
items regarded by the Army as critical
in warfare, American industry Is able
now to produce fewer than 100 and the
House Of Representatives threw out an
appropriation that would have helped
industry learn to produce more.
II &+
In the last war, as rather graphically
pointed out by Louis johnson, Assistant
Secretary OF War; it was one year after
American participation that the first
division of American soldiers entered the
front lines in France. That division,
even then, had to use British and French
equipment ranging all the way from gas
masks to artillery, and even tin hats.
American industry today is even more
woefully unprepared for wartime pro-
duction than 1t was in 1917. Both Roose-
velt and Hitler know this and are acting
accordingly.
Then there Is the second reason for
expecting the United States to escape
involvement.
Nations, particularly democracies, sell
dom go to war simply on general princi-
pies. There must be some overt act
touching that nations vital interests and
capable of influencing representatives of
the people to act. Sentiment was as
strongly anti-German in the last war as
in this, but it required repeated German
attacks at sea involving loss of life and
OF property to Americans, before this
country entered war. Now, the Neutral
ity Act Is serving effectively to keep
American ships and American travellers
out OF danger zones. Only If the Ger
mans should seek to come to this hemi-
sphere and to grab British or Dutch or
Danish or French territory would the
United States have the same character
OF provocation as that which resulted in
war in 1917.
But Hitler realizes the mistake made
by the Kaiser in the last war and is
striving to avoid any overt act that would
give this country the excuse for action.
Ia ,lr~ L.
the winter, realizing that in this year the
United States faces a political campaign
in which sentiment to stay out of war
can play part.
Most important of the reasons for ex-
pecting this country to keep out of Eu-
ropes part of the war, however, is the
situation In the Far East.
There are vital British, French and
Dutch interests in the Far East that to-
day are relatively unprotected. There
also are vital American interests in that
area, including the Philippines which
must be defended until 1946-and sup
plies of rubber and tin that are regarded
as essential Japan is watching for
nothing more than a favorable oppor-
tunity to let her navy demonstrate its
ability to do more for the empire than
the army has been able to do in China.
The defense problem that the United