Evening star., 1940-05-19
Nozi Victory Hinges on Ability
To Keep Going, Eliot Says
Restorting Drive Would Be Difficult
If Momentum Once Were Lost, He Thinks

territorial divisions in Great Britain
POSSIBLY IL or so) which might be
thrown in as a last resort. There
are also some French troops in
North Africa which may be on the
way, though most Of the best North
African regiments are either in
France already, or with Gen. Wey-
gand's army in Syria.
The German success so far has
been due to two main factors
their ability to disorganize the rear
areas by their air force and armored
troops, and the continuity with
which they have pressed their at
tacks, giving the allies no time to
reform their shattered organiza-
tions and to consolidate new posi-
tions of resistance. Much seems
now to depend on whether the
Germans can keep up this terrific
pace much longer. They are gam
bling desperately on winning the
war at a stroke. They are re-
ported as having put in half their
total Of armored troops; I would
think the proportion much larger,
approaching 100 per cent.
They have certainly committed
anywhere from 60 to 80 infantry
divisions to the fight, including at
least three-fourths of their best
trained flrst-line divisions. They
have thrown In almost all their air
force. II they are stopped now,
If their mighty drive loses momen-
tum and comes to a definite halt,
they will find it very difficult to
start it going again at anything
like the same pace or with the same
effectiveness. Their losses of men
and particularly of material have
certainly been very great. But it
must be said frankly that there is
nothing now to show any sign of
faltering in their on-rush, nor very
much sign of failure.
Reserves Being Exhausted.
The allied reserves are fast becom-
ing exhausted. The Germans still
have some reserves in hand. The
ability to throw into the fight the
last formed reserve may now, as in
the past, determine the outcome.
It is just possible that the allies still
have reserve forces which may at
least halt the German drive. This
we do not know certainly. 1t may
be the factor on which the imme-
diate future of the modern world
now hangs.
In the air the Germans continue
their terrific activity. The allied air
forces are doing their best, but their
losses are proportionately more
weakening than those of the Ger
mans. Gen. Gamelin's order of the
day, in which he speaks of the Royal
Air Force being committed "up to
the hilt," probably indicates that
even the planes held back for the
defense Of the British isles are now
engaged. Whether this reinforce
ment will turn the aerial tide is
doubtful, though it is possible on
the scope of the superior efficiency,
both of material and personnel,
which the allied air forces seem to
possess.
AS to the moral factor, rumors of
French morale weakening are pro-
foundly disturbing. This may not be
true, or may be localized. There is
also the German morale factor to be
considered. They are in the high
tide of victory, as they were in 1914
and 1918. But they are also ap-
parently verging on the over conf
dence which was their ruin then,
and which once again, at the last
moment, may come to the aid of the
hard-pressed allies. 1t is upon such
slender hopes that the fate of the
allied cause may now depend.
(Copyright, 1910. by New York Tribune.)