Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-10-14
The Near Eost

ne l\eOT cost
Eastward from the turbulent
Balkans stretches the bulk of the
Near East, a vast region whose key
is ConStantinople and the straits
Across that deep but narrow sea-
river the road to empire beckons
through the blunt peninsula of Asia
Minor. Thence it forkS-SouthWard
to Syria, Palestine, Suez and Egypt;
southeast to Mesopotamia, Iran, and
even India.
Whether the militant dictators
plan to travel that historic road, we
do not yet know, because their larger
purpose is yelled by the smoke screen
of cunning secrecy. Certainly they
have much to do in the Balkans be-
fore they can venture so great and
hazardous an enterprise. Well they
know that the way to Near Eastern
empire is long and strewn with pit
falls. Nevertheless, an estimate of
the difficulties will not be amiss.
Their most formidable obstacle
confronts them at the very start in
the existence of Turkey, compact,
efficient nation-state with an in
tensely patriotic people additionally
tough fighters and with homeland
easy to defend. Turkey can muster
nearly 100000 flrst-line troops, rea-
sonably we'll equipped, with another
100000 second-string reserves. As
sured of British backing, even If
only naval aid, the Turks would I'M
doubtedly fight the axis powers to
the last gasp-unless, like Poland a
year ago, they were threatened by
Russian stab in the back. Perhaps
they would fight in any event, but
the Turks are cool-headed realists
and might decide to bargain rather
than battle against hopeless odds.
Soviet Russia is thus the second
major factor in the problem, but
here, again, we encounter mystery
in the person of pokerfaced Joseph
Stain. Dare he thwart the axis?
Has he even struck a bargain? Iran,
for instance, undoubtedly interests
this man from nearby Georgia, and
Iran would prove an almost helpless
prey. Reza Shah, its energetic ruler,
has a modernized gendarmerie able
to keep internal order and master
the wild mountain tribes; but behind
that small force is nothing except
alarmed Oriental levieS. Stain
could presumably strike clear to the
coveted warm waters of the Indian
Ocean, virtually unopposed. 1t is
doubtful whether Britain could give
much aid to the IranianS. The
British would have too much to do
battling the main German-Italian
thrustS.
OF course, Stain may stand up to
this major axis threat. But the
present omens do not indicate 1t.
The fact that Bulgaria, so responsive
to Russian pressure, seems to be
lining up with the axis, is bad sign.
Therefore, let it be assumed for the
sake of argument that the axis
powers will not find Russia lined up
against them in the Near East. Be-
yond Turkey, what will they have
to face?
A realistic appraisal seems to show
that there will be little except Brit
ish land and naval strength. The
once fine French Army in Syria must
be badly disorganized. The Arab
troops of Palestine and Irak are of
doubtful quality, while in the vast
wasteland to the southwark broods
the giant figure of Ibn Saud, emperor
of the desert, another enigma, who is
certain to play a shrewd hand. The
strength of the British forces is I'M
known. They are certainly of high
quality and Britain controls the seas.
Also they occupy the interior lines
and could thus more easily parry
thrusts from north, west and south.
For the moment, on that score little
more can be said.
From this analysis emerge two
major factors whose position must
be definitely placed before conjec-
ture can give place to reasonable
appraisal. They are Turkey and
Russia. And Turkeys attitude will
presumably depend largely upon
what Russia decides to do.