Evening star., 1940-01-30
Of Stors, Men
And Atoms
Notebook Of Science Progress
In Field, Laboratory
And Study
BIZ Thomas r. Henri.

By Thomas r. Henry.
Weather Bureau scientists are skepti-
cal in the face of predictions that the
country will have one of the worst
droughts In history next summer.
For most of the Nation east of the
Rockies this past autumn was the dryest
on record. 1t really started last March.
For the three spring months, the records
show, there was only about two thirds of
normal rainfall for the country between
the Pacific and the Mississippi. For
most of the Eastern States precipitation
was little better than the average.
During the summer the situation grew
worse west Of the Mississippi, although
1t was fairly rainy in the East.
Crops did not suffer severely, however,
for the preceding winter had been ex-
ceptionally rainy and there was plenty
of reserve moisture in the soil. With
September the growing drought afflicted
the whole country with the single ex-
ception of Maryland in the East and
Arizona, Utah and Nevada in the West
There was rainfall deficiency of nearly
go per cent. Winter has not improved
the situation, except in the Pacific
Northwest, where there has been plenti-
full moisture, and in Nebraska, which
just hit the average.
This, says j. B. Kincer, climatologist
of the Weather Bureau, was exactly what
was expected for the Midwest. Winter
is normally the dryest season and fol-
lows the pattern set by the autumn
months. The soil moisture has been
largely depleted and very copious rains
will be necessary this spring to remedy
the situation. Otherwise it hardly will
be possible for seeds to germinate.
The worst of 1t is that this comes at
the end of 10-year period of extreme
aridity. with two major droughts which
brought financial ruin to thousands OF
farmers and wrecked with duststorms
thousands OF erstwhile fertile acres.
Now the last great drought decade,
Mr.. Kincer's records show, extended from
1886 to 1895. 1t was rather mild at the
start. Within the decade there were
years Of normal rainfall and fair crops.
1t all eliminated in 1895 in the worst
drought the country has known since
there have been accurate records, until
1880. Then the whole cycle started
over again, but about where the other
left of.
Apparently the dryness had reached
its climax in 1887 Crops failed every
where and hordes were made homeless
to wander in pathetic destitution in their
broken-down cars across the mountains
to the Pacific. where they were not
wanted. With more plentiful rainfall
for the succeeding three years the coun-
try began to breath easier and some Of
the wrecked acres were replanted.
But the Weather Bureau scientists
had always before them the prospect
that it might be worse before it really
began to get better. Droughts seemed
to have habit of running in decades,
within year or two. There might be
some basis for prediction, Mr.. Kincer
says, If any correlation whatsoever could
be found between fall and winter rain
fall for the wheat belt and precipita-
ton in the spring months. He has Just
finished an exhaustive analysis 1t re-
veals that there is no relation what
soever. so far as can be determined by
the precipitation Of a half century.
1t was that way from 1886 to 1895.
There would be a dry fall. Farmers
would throw up their hands in utter
encouragement only to have a spring
with more rain than they wanted In
the same decade moderately wet falls
were followed by springs so dry that it
was useless to plant. But, on the other
hand, dry falls and winters were just
as apt to be followed by even dryer
springs.
The only cheering word the Weather
Bureau can give the worried Western
farmers is that drought periods finally
come to an end and are followed by
long years Of better r-than-average rain
fall. Between 1895 and 1890 there was
no real draught covering a large area
of the country. One encouraging fea-
ture this winter has been the cold. The
scanty snow has remained as cover of
the soil and its moisture may be ex-
pected to penetrate the parched earth
slowly.
In the meanwhile, the Weather Bu-
reau scientists can only urge farmers
to use their, best judgment and not be
influenced by weather prophets ANY,
body who predicts bad drought next
summer, they point out, has exactly a
so per cent chance of being right, and
they themselves have nothing better to
offer.