Evening star., 1940-09-29
BY MAJ. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.

by MAJ. GEoRGE FIELDING
ELIOT.
The announcement of the new
Berlin Rome Toxic axis confrontS
the world in general and the Eng
ish- h-speaking nations in particular,
with an open acknowledgement of
a situation long recognized as exist
ing in fact; it is the motives behind
this announcement which call for
careful analysis, rather than the CO.
operation amongst the predatory
powers, which has been going on
more or less openly for so long
Alliances are presumed to be
mutually beneficial to all the con-
tracing parties. Unless one or
more act under duress, which is
hardly the case here. On this basis.
some early commentators have
found it difficult to see what bene-
fit Japan is to expect: yet benefit
there must be. or the practical Mr..
Matsuoka would not be found in
this galley
Upon careful examination only
one real japanese gain can be dis
covered-and that lies in the posi-
bility that the Germans can bring
such pressure 10 bear on Soviet
Russia as to compel that country
to stop aiding China. No one could
confer a greater benefit on Japan
than to bring the China incident"
to close satisfactory to Toxic.
Japan herself has contrived to close
one of the three routes tthat by
way of French Indo-China) which
China can still hope to get sup
plies; the second, the famous Burma
road, is now closed by the rainy
season and by temporary British
japanese agreement: the third is
the road from Soviet Russia. If
that can be closed, too. China will
be in difficulties indeed Only the
prompt reopening of the Burma
road can save her
May Hope to Divert L. s.
As for the benefits to be gained
bv Germany and Italy. these are
probably, first mighty fanfare of
trumpets to attract world attention
away from the German failure to
reduce Great Britain. failure
which is beginning to loom as an
accomplished fact; second. as
American help to Britain grows and
as the prospects of long war in
crease, hope of embroiling the
United States in the Orient and thus
dlverting American attention and
munitions to a theater in which
neither Germany nor Italy has any
real or vital interests. Whatever
damage and loss Japan may cause
the British Empire and the United
States in the Far East is that much
net gain to Germany. Moreover if
Britain gets into trouble with Japan,
this may prevent or hamper REIN
forcement of the British position
in the Middle East which may. if
the invasion of Britain be given up,
become for the moment the main
theater of war.
The pact is in fact, as is openly
avowed in the nations concerned,
aimed more or less directly at the
United States, and Though this is
t-pedaled) at the Soviet Union.
1t is doubtless conceived that the
announcement of the pact will pro-
duce great division of opinion in
the United States as to what ought
to be done: that our people, never
very attentive to undeclared and
obscure foreign situations, will now
begin to sit up and take notice, and
that We shall have here a Tuscan
army in which those behind cry
forward while those before cry
back" Some will say that we must
now conserve all our munitions for
ourselves. against the inevitable"
war with Japan; others will be for
abandoning the Far East to the
japanese and concentrating upon
more aid to Britain; still others will
be for keeping out of all foreign
entanglements: and so on. 1t is
ShreWdly chosen in the matter of
time. only few weeks before a
national election, when policy is
likely to become a political football,
if not between the principals in
the conteSt-for Mr. Willkie has
shown a praiseworthy tendency to
avoid embarrassing the President in
the conduct of current foreign policy
then between their various sup
porters.
Appears an Ugly Dilemma.
Indeed, the situation thus created
does seem, at first sight, to present
this country with an ugly dilemma.
If we do nothing in the Far East,
the japanese advance will continue,
China's contacts with the outer
world may be cut, Japan may possess
herself OF the whole of Indo-China
and the Netherland Indies, as we'll
as reducing China to submission and
establishing herself as overload OF
all East Asia. If we act to prevent
Japan from doing all this, we may
ourselves become entangled in Far
Eastern complications at a moment
when all our efforts may be needed
in the Atlantic. where our interests
are much more important, to save
Great Britain Similarly if Britain
stands fast at Singapore but does