Evening star., 1940-10-20
Experts Foresee d
Long War
By OUen L. Scott.

question: Will Great Britain be able to
stand indefinitely against the attacks
now being directed against her island
home and against her empire?
All kinds of decisions depend upon the
answer. If Britain holds, then the
United States can afford to be tough
with Japan, to be leisurely about rearm-
ament, to go about business somewhat
as usual. If Britain is not able to hold,
then the United States must hurry up
preparations to face a changed world.
There then will be great difficulty in
maintaining a position in the Far East.
Isolation into the shell of this hemi-
sphere then will be necessary.
Britain's ability to hold indefinitely
is the object of endless conjecture. 1t
now is possible, however, to give the
considered judgment of this country'S
experts concerning that ability. Upon
the conclusions of these experts rest
many of the decisions that are being
made by this Government today.
The answer to the question Of Great
Britain's outlook is not clear cut and is
not simple. That answer as given by
those who have been on the ground and
whose judgment is depended upon to
underlie this country's policy, does point,
however, to one conclusion. The con-
clusion is that the present war will be
= long. The chances of American involve
ment, IN consequence, are quite large.
In fact there is some ground for assert
ing that the United States, in reality,
is engaged in this war. Whether Amer
lean power is most likely to be felt di-
rectly in the Far East or in the Atlantic
still is uncertain Whether the develop
ing situation is to call for a vast effort
or is to be confined to relatively small
scale air and naval aid also is uncer-
tain. But this much can be said:
The threat of any early successful
invasion of England, in expert opinion,
now is past. Chancellor Hitler has not
shown an ability to gain air mastery over
Britain. He has not prevented the Brit
ish from building powerful home de-
fenses that would make an attack from
the sea very costly. This means that
the Germans, instead of making swift
assault, are likely TO continue their air
attacks on England and to shift mill
tary operations elsewhere The question
growing out of air attack Is whether
that attack is breaking British morale
and whether it is breaking down the
productive machine of Britain.
AdviceS given this Government by its
own observers is that British morale is
higher now than at the start of the
large-Scale air attack. The British peo-
pie are reported to have made up their
minds that the choice is between suf-
fering under their own Government or
serving as slaves under Hitler regime
They have rejected slavery Whether
this same determined attitude will sur
vive a winter of continued attack is
something that cannot now be foretold.
That leaves the question Of the effec-
tiveness of air attack in destroying Brit
ish industry.
Here again, the answer given by this
country's observers is interesting. 1t
stresses the relatively small damage
that bombing has inflicted. to date. upon
the KEY industries of Britain. The Ger
man attack has been indiscriminate and
has shown a rather amazing ability to
miss the important British industries.
At this point, however, more dlsquiet-
ing factors enter the picture and those
factors are impressing official opinions
here.
For one thing there is no evidence
that the British are IN any way over
coming the German air superiority
German losses in planes and pilots have
been severe, but there are more planes
and pilots to take the place of those lost
without evidence of decrease in guam
tity or quality. The German airplane
production, on the basis of latest official
reports is above 5000 a month. While
the combined British and American
production is under 1000 each month.
AS result the gap in the field of air
power is not yet being closed.
For another thing the German sub
marine and air warfare directed at Brit
ish shipping really is serious. That at
tack has not yet interferred with the
feeding of the British population. But
there are beginning to be isolated short
ages of some industrial raw materials.
AS result, unless the British Navy can
find some way to overcome the shipping
problem, British industry may face real
difficulties in another few months.
If that happens, much greater depend
ence will have to be placed upon Amer
lean production. Even then there would
remain the problem of moving American
production to the; British Isles through
that the key to the wars outcome will
be the ability of the British Navy to
overcome the effectiveness of the sub
marine and airplane as commerce de-
stroyerS.
For a third thing, the British face a
serious problem. owing to the vast
stretches of empire that must be de-
Tended
Having failed to invade England for
an attempt to gain quick victory, Hitler
appears now to be preparing assaults
upon two key points in British Empire
defense-Gibraltar at one end of the
Mediterranean and the Suez Canal at
the other end. The purpose of this as
Sd it, in part is to cut the line of Brit
ish oil supply from the Near East The
purpose, in further part, is to break the
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