Evening star., 1940-11-17
Far Eastern Puzzle

The tense and complex Far Eastern
/ situation is. for the moment, some
what puzzling. America feels that
important events impend and we
can foresee some of them fairly well,
but we cannot predict just how or
when they will occur. Furthermore,
Far Eastern affairs are intimately
bound up with happenings in Europe,
especially with the current negotia-
tons between Russia and the axis
powers This adds to the implications.
For the past fortnight Japan has
been pulling large bodies of troops
out of Southern China and has
massed them mainly on the nearby
island Of Hainan or in Tonkin, the
northernmost portion of French
Indo-China. Tonkin was the province
occupied by the Japanese on the
pretext of campaign in Southern
China which has now been aban-
doned. A feet of transports stands
ready to take those troops, estimated
at 100000 to an undiscloSed destina-
ton. The japanese press has hinted
broadly that this powerful force
would be used for aggressive action
to the southwark.
Speculation has, of course, been
life as TO its precise destination.
Until last week, many qualified
observers predicted a sudden descent
upon the Dutch East Indies, espe-
cially the great Dutch island Of
Borneo, with its oil wells long coveted
by Japan. Borneo lies directly south
Of Hainan Island, though thousand
miles Of open sea intervene How
ever, this contingent threat seems
TO have been al least temporarily
( removed by the negotiations just
concluded by Japanese and Dutch
officials in Batavia, capital Of Meth
erlands India BY this agreement.
Japan obtains from the Dutch Indies
an increase in annual oil imports
from $4,000 tons 10 100000 tons
boost Of 300 per cent. OF this
vast increase, 100 300 tons are to
be crude oil and $4,000 tons oil
( products. Whether those include
( high-octane airplane gasoline is not
stated. II should be remembered
/ that Britain is presumed to have
contracted for the Dutch Indies
entire output Of airplane gas so
Japan may not have succeeded in
getting any Of the product she most
urgently needs.
However, it is hard 10 reconcile so
big deal with the theory that
Japan is al set to grab the Dutch
Indies by force of arms. The Dutch
have announced that they would
fight any aggresSor and that the
oil wells and refneries would be
destroyed as one Of the first items
in their defense program. The Jap
anese would thus get no oil for
months until they could repair the
damage, whereas now they are
assured large supply.
With the Dutch Indies out Of the
picture, for the time being, the most
likely alternative is a taking over Of
the rest Of French Indo-China,
which stretches southwark for some
800 miles beyond the Japanese-con-
troLed province Of Tonkin. Besides
7 its natural resources, Indo-China
would provide the japanese with
the splendid naval base Of Cam
Ranh Bay, not far from the city Of
Saigon, Indo-China's capital and
metropolis. Once installed there, the
japanese would be only about 600
miles from Britain's Far Eastern
Gibraltar at Singapore Also, they
would be much closer to the Dutch
. Indies and within relatively close
/ striking distance Of the Philippines.
I Whether the French colonial
! authorities at Saigon would give in
as tamely as they did in Tonkin is
a question. Reports from China
1 intimate that resistance may be
/ offered, and Britain has been REIN
/ forcing her garrison at Singapore.
! A japanese occupation Of all Indo-
/ China would be highly dangerous for
Britain and it is possible that the
recent stifening Of British diplo-
macy toward Japan is a veiled
warning not to go too far. The world
may be on the eve Of a decisive
/ showdown in the Far East. And it
may also be that Moscow holds the
key to what a showdown would
/ be like.
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