Evening star., 1940-09-12
BY MAI. GEORGE FIELDING
ELIOT.

Prime Minister ChurchlllS speech
CT yesterday clearly indicates he
thinks the final showdown-at least
for the present phase of the battle
of Britain-is close at hand.
What are the German chances of
success? The answer to this ques-
ton is one in which not only Britain
but the United States has a direct
and immediate interest.
1t is quite probable that the Ger
mans have reserve of bombers
which they are now going to put in
for the final preparatory stage of
their great effort against Britain.
The result of their effort will very
largely depend on whether or not
they are able to get large numbers
of troops into Great Britain.
The British Army of defense is
large in numbers, but let us con-
slider its origin and history. At the
time Of the outbreak of war the situ-
ton was as follows: The regular
army in the British Isles was able
to put into the field four, possibly
five, infantry divisions and one
armored division. Another armored
division was in course of organiza-
ton. There was a regular army
reserve sufficient to bring the regu-
lar army to war strength, to provide
a reservoir of requirements and
also to provide some experienced
men as instructors for other COM
ponents. The territorial army,
rather inferior to our own National
Guard in training, had just under
gone a double increase-the units
had just been raised from peace
strength to war strength, and on
top of that the number of units
had been doubled, each unit having
formed a duplicate unit.
Officers Thinly Spread.
Considering that in the beginning
there was. as always with such VOL
unteer citizen forces. considerable
proportion OF unframed or partially
trained men in each unit, 1t will
be understood that the trained off,
GERS and non-commissioned officers
were spread pretty thinly through
the new territorial army, whose
total strength was to be II infantry
divisions and one armored division
of the first line and the same for
the second line. Finally, there had
Just been begun the scheme for
compulsory military training for six
months of annual classes of So
called militia further strain on
the available instructors.
1t is just not possible that on
such a beginning there has been
created within the period of one
year a fully trained, fully equipped
army of 100000 men.
There are probably in Great
Britain today no more than a dozen
really first-line divisions. The rest
will be of all shades of progress
from quite good to quite raw. They
must be considered, however, not
so much on this basis as by COM
parison with their opponents. The
best of the German troops $50 to
10 divisions) are composed for the
greater part Of men who, after two
years training, have served through
the Polish campaign, have had an
additional winters training in which
the results of that campaign were
applied, and then have been through
the campaign in the low countries
and France and have had couple
of months additional training after
that. Such forces, competently COM
manded and completely equipped,
are not to be stopped by mere cour-
age and devotion, to whatever
heights these may rise.
Landing a German Problem.
We must hope that it will prove
for large units of these
troops, reasonably intact as to Or
ganization and equipment. to be
landed in Great Britain. When we
examine the matter from this angle
the prospects are brighter. In the
first place. the Germans have COM
pletely failed to gain anything like
air superiority during the hours OF
daylight over the British Isles.
The invasion of Great Britain
cannot be carried through in a
single night. In commencing it, the
Germans must take into account
what position the dawn will find |
.hem in, and must act with full |
of their proven inability
80 far-to beat the Royal Air Force
% the ground Their problem is
10 gain foothold-a bridge-head or
'ather a series of bridge-heads-on
5he shores of Britain, through which