Evening star., 1940-03-24
Two Considerations
Bor Third Term
By OUen L. Scott.

The little original group OF third
term promoters today are discouraged,
Just at time when all Of the surface
breaks appear to be going their way.
They are aware that Mr.. Roosevelt has
all OF his party opponents stopped cold.
They are confident of large third-term
majorities in the April preference pri-
maries. There isn't a remaining doubt
of the Presidents ability to have this
third nomination II he will take it.
So far as the signs go Mr.. Roosevelt
Is not ready to close the door irrevocably
to another call from his party. Yet the
third-termers are almost convinced that
the Jig Is up. They doubt that they are
going to be able to fulfill what now are
understood to be two minimum condi-
tions laid down by the President that
must be met before a third nomination
will be accepted. These conditions have
been made clear to few high officials.
One Of the Presidents conditions, in
considering third term, Is that the
emergency growing out Of war abroad be
evident to the country and real. It ap-
pears at this time as though an emer-
gency OF this kind could not possibly
develop before the Democratic National
Convention In July. The war, instead
OF intensifying in a dramatic way is very
likely to drag along in the diplomatic
field, with only occasional bursts of activ-
ity that will hardly cause excitement
here. The second condition fixed by Mr..
Roosevelt. II the first is fulfilled, is that
any third nomination be effected by a
unanimous vote of the Democratic con-
vention. There now is assurance that
last-ditch group Of delegates will stand
out against a third term under almost
any conditions. The Garner candidacy
is explained on this basis
Much Of the third term excitement
has grown out of the failure Of President
Roosevelt to follow through on an assur-
ance that he gave James A. Farley some
time ago. The President is reported on
the very best authority to have told his
Postmaster General that he would reveal
his political intentions not later than
March 4, so that the party could go about
its business. But March has come and
gone without the expected announce
ment.
There Is. however, very good reason
why Mr.. Roosevelt did not make good on
his assurance.
That reason stems from the war. The
President obviously has felt that there
might be chance for this country to
sponsor proposal that might lead to
peace in Europe. II peace conference
could have been engineered, or if a mere
potentiality of peace could be established,
the country might demand that its Pres
ident continue in Office to follow through
on program of such vital import Sum
ner Welles went to Europe to make
soundings on this subject.
But Welles ran into trouble abroad
He found the British suspicious of his
mission and inclined to connect it di-
rectly to third-term ambitions on the
part Of the President He found the
Germans interested in peace but at a
price the allies hardly could pay with
out admitting defeat.
The President obviously had felt that
hs could not tell the world that he in
tended to renounce his power Just at
time when there was possibility that he
might be force for peace. Between the
time Mr.. Roosevelt lets it be known that
he definitely will not accept third term
and the time new President takes Office,
the influence of this country in world
affairs will be at discount. The rea-
son is that foreign nations will know
that the Government in power Is a
temporary government whose policies are
uncertain.
If, as now appears probable. there is
no chance for peace in Europe, Presi-
dent Roosevelt can forget his inhibitions
on this score and can think about full
filling mis- ambition to retire on Janu-
ary 20, 1941.
But, If he is going to retire, the Presi-
dent will want to have the right to
choose successor. Unless Mr.. Roose-
velt is spoofing more than one person,
that choice has been made. Representa-
tive Doughton, the veteran chairman of
the House Ways and Means Committee,
is not the only individual to whom the
President has expressed the opinion that
Cordell Hull Secretary of State, would
make worthy nominee who could win
in the November election.
Mr.. Roosevelt reasons that world af-
fairs are going to be the dominating in
fluence in the years just ahead and that
Secretary Hull is better qualified than
any other person except the President
himself to deal with those affairs The
President knows that Mr.. Hull is essen
TALLY conservative in domestic policies,
but he also knows that Mr.. Hull has
sufficient understanding of the forces at
work in the world to know that the
present New Deal is the merest begin
ming Of what will be necessary, If this
war goes on any length Of time
Like any practical politician, President
Roosevelt wants to have a winner in
election year and he knows that with the
present conservative trend in the coun-
try. Cordell Hull may just about fill the
bill Of requirements for the ideal canoi-
date. The only drawback is his age-he
would be SO at the start of his first term,
If elected.
Does that mean that 1t is all cut and
dried? Is the President likely to with
draw himself irrevocably from the pic
ty1reo