Evening star., 1940-03-10
BY CLARK LEE,
Associated Press Foreisn Correspondent

ny NAAnh LEE,
Associated Press Foreisn Correspondent.
SHANGHAI, March 9.-The Japa-
nese have reached a point in their
32-month- undeclared war on
China when competent foreign mill
tary observers believe they must
consider withdrawing from certain
areas.
This question, experts say, will be
answered not on the battlef1elds, but
in Japan, where the problems Of de-
creased man power, increased taxa
ton and disruption Of the national
economy are reported daily grow
ing more serious.
Nothing in the nature Of a general
Japanese collapse is foreseen, but
foreign military men say that II
present stalemated conditions con-
tinue, the Japanese in few months
may have to quit some sections.
AS they see it, II the invaders do
pull in their horns it will be done
first in South China, then in the
Yangtze Valley If necessary, but,
barring complete collapse, the Japa-
nese will never abandon North
China, original objective OF their
campaign and where their hold Is
strongest.
Undeclared Truce.
Meanwhile there is virtually an
undeclared truce, despite sporadic
fighting nearly always going on
somewhere in the far-f1ung battle
areas.
The intervals between major Japa-
nese offensives are becoming longer.
and the Chinese show few signs OF
launching their long-heralded gen.
eral counteroffensive.
Foreign military observers and
close students of the Oriental scene
attribute the situation to these fac
tors:
Depletion of Japan's human and
economic resources; China's ina
bility to recapture any districts
which the Japanese really want to
hold: Japanese peace hopes centered
on the prospective establishment OF
a Japanese-dominated government
of China" under Wang Ching-we1.
japanese military power Is scat
tered in the vastness Of China.
Japanese generals call urgently for
more men and materials, but the
homeland can supply only limited
quantities.
Disease Sapping Morale.
Unframed youths of 18 to 20 are
the only fresh Japanese troops COM
ing to China-as requirements, not
reinforcements. Diseases common
to China-such as malaria and
dysentery-are reported to be sap
ping the morale Of the veterans,
some of whom have been fighting
on foreign soil for two and half
gruelling years.
Shortage of gasoline and bombs
has forced curtailment of japanese
aerial activity except In South
China.
Chinas Generalissimo Chang
Kai-shek still Is represented as firm
in his belief that neither the time
nor his armies are ripe for an all
front drive to retake Japanese oc-
cupied territory, although the Chi
nese are strong enough to force the
Japanese to keep within fortified
cities and close to the railroad
zones.
The relative positions of the op-
posing forces have changed little
since October, 1898, except for the
japanese capture Of Nanchang last
March, the South Shansi mopping-
up drive Of mid-July, and the Japa-
nese push into Kwanksi, Southwest
China military and transport key
point, begun last November.
Seek to Avoid Fighting.
AS for Japanese peace hopes, the
invaders now are anxious to avoid
unnecessary fighting so as to win
over the Chinese masses to the side
Of Wang Ching-wei.
Operations in the Shanghai area
during February illustrate the Jap
anese problem. In that month they
reported fighting 228 encounters
killing 5000 Chinese and losing only
173 Of their own men. This is at
least the tenth time the Japanese
have cleaned up the Shanghai area
and restored peace and order"
The present situation, foreign
military men say, is favorable to
the Chinese, patiently playing a
waiting game, concentrating on
sabotaging Japanese efforts to make
conquered areas pay for the con-
quest.
This is accomplished through
blockades which prevent Chinese
products from entering Japanese
areas, cutting Japanese communica-
tions and frequent attacks. on iso-
lated garrisons. Lack of explo-
sives, however, has handicapped
Chinese efforts, which have proved
more annoying than decisive.
Communications Intact.
Despite the raids, the japanese
are keeping trains running and
their communication lines fairly
well intact. They are, however