Evening star., 1940-02-11
.Japan's Economic Troubles May
Force Attack on Dutch Islands
Nippon's Navy, Cool to Brash Action Against
East Indies, Seen Considering Throwing
Its Lot With Army Clique
By Constantine Broom.

Had the Toxic military clique had its
own way, the Japanese would have
landed in Dutch Borneo last year-a
few weeks before the outbreak Of the
European war. The navy opposed this
adventure at the last minute. All pre-
parations had been made. There was an
expeditionary corps kept in readiness at
Formosa and part of the Japanese
navy was ready to put to sea for SUM
mer maneuvers." This enterprise was
halted. The Japanese wanted to DETER
mine the duration of this new European
war They don't trust their allies-the
Germans and the Italians-any more
than they trust their opponents
Americans, British and French.
The Japanese government is now Ger
tain that the European war will be a
long one That at least two of the
potential obstacles to Japan's expansion
southwards-France and Britaih-will
necessarily withdraw from Pacific af-
fairs. Hence the possibility that long
dreamed-of plans may be realized seems
closer now.
The Japanese navy has never been In
full agreement with the army regarding
Nipponese- American relations In the
last two years the American Navy war
games were closely followed by Japanese
naval experts. Their conclusion was
that it would be preferable for them to
avoid, for the time being at least, any
conflict with the United States in which
the U. S. Navy might become a deter
mining factor. The admirals more than
once have had to put the brakes on Jap
anese generals. If the effects of the
abrogation of the commercial treaty be-
tween this country and Japan are such
as to justify the theory of the army that
not only industry, but the operating
capacity of the navy will be crippled, the
japanese admirals are reported to be
willing to take chance"
See U. s. as Peace loving.
The reports of the Japanese repre-
sentatives and agents in the United
States are. practically unanimous in say
ing that the American people are more
sold on the idea of peace at any price
short of an invasion of American terri
tory-than during the last war. While
they do not say that aggression in the
Pacific would not reverse this attitude,
they are reported to believe that it
would take great deal to create a bel
licose spirit in the United States today.
If word from Toxic is correct (it is nee
essary to IF" everything that comes from
that capital because not even the best
informed sources can vouch for their in
formatton) there has been a change Of
heart among the japanese admirals in
the last few weeks. While they have not
put the seal of their approval on the
plans OF the generals, they are inclined
to think that drastic measures may be
necessary If Japan's industry (this in
cludes the supership building program of
Japan should be threatened.
The Dutch know this. They have been
talking to the United States Government
about the possibility of japanese on
slaught ever since the European war
started. They look calmly on such
catastrophe and have taken the necessary
measures to make the Dutch East Indies
another Finland. According to informa-
ton upon which it is possible to rely, they
can resist any japanese attack for
period of from four to six months.
The Dutch East Indies are protected
by an important part OF the Netherlands
Navy, by an air force and by coast de-
fenses. While in fairness to the Dutch
1t would be wrong to make public the
number of submarines stationed in these
waters, it can be said that the official
number of 80 published in James Fight
ing Ships" of 1899, does not represent the
whole Netherlands submarine force.
More of such vessels we're acquired in the
last few months and in all likelihood
before this summer the number will be
further increased
The strong defense of the Dutch East
ern possessions is, of course, somewhat a
deterrent to Japan. The naval staff be-
lieves that the resistance Of the Dutch
and Malays could be overcome, even
though it might take a stiff f1ght-pro-
vided, however, that the United States
did not become involved in such a con-
f1ict. The stake is so high and the profits
so immense that Washington is worried
lest the japanese might try to tempt
fate.