Evening star., 1940-04-06
Of Stors, Men -
And Atoms
Notebook Of Science Progress
In Field, Laboratory
And Study
BIZ Thomas r. Henri.

A permanent fighting man power Of
approximately 26,38o,0oo for the United
states-nearly three million more than
were available during the World War
was predicted today by DR.. Guy I. Burch,
director of the Population Reference
Bureau here, which includes on its coun-
Gil some of the foremost American ex-
perts on population trends.
With declining birth rate and the
average age OF American citizens in
creasing due to the decline in child NOR
tality, fears have been expressed that
eventually this country may fall an easy
prey to young nation" which encour-
ages and maintains a high birth rate,
such as Japan or Germany.
If present trends continue, it is pre-
dicted, in 1880 those born in the United
States each year will about balance those
who die and the population will become
stationary.
But" reports DR.. Burch, "if 20 to As
Is considered the military age, the United
States will have more males of fighting
age in 1880 than she had in 1880 and
considerably more than she had during
the World War. In 1880 there were some
23,600,000 males between these ages. In
1880 there will be 26,380,0O0, not includ-
ing additions through immigration. The
average age of the man power will be
somewhat greater, but there is no evi-
donco RI hot ic ,ujn ha
efficiency of the Army. 1t may even
improve it.
While 18 or 20 to As may be con-
sidered the military age, war affects the
whole national economy, and males be-
tween the ages of As and IS are needed
to take the places of those Withdrawn
for military service. With this in mind,
it is significant that there will be nearly
100000 more males between the ages
of As and IS in 1880 than there were in
$780, Therefore, even If machines of
war and industry do not have tendency
to replace the common soldier and un-
skilled laborer, the United States will
have abundant man power in time of
war"
There is little likelihood of Americans
becoming race of dependent old people
when the stabilized population Is reached,
Mr. Burchs calculations show.
While the productive age group will
increase for time and then remain
more or less stationary" he says, there
will be considerable change in the age
groups under 20 and over 65 years of age.
Speaking in percentages, by 1880 those
under 20 may decrease from about 35
per cent to about q per cent of the total
population, while those over 65 may in
crease from to Is per cent If we re-
ceive large number of immigrants in
the near future and do not have a war,
pestilence or some other disaster that
carries away considerable number now
in the productive age group. it is pos
sible that the old-age group of the poph-
lation may reach 18 per cent about
1900 AID.
These shifts should create number
of minor problems of adjustment. but
none that should weaken the national
economy. The productive capacity of
the Nation. so far as age is concerned,
should be as great per capita as it was
i'll our peak prosperity year of 1929. and
the support of dependent old people
should not cost the Nation any more, or
as much, as it would cost to support and
educate an equal number of dependent
youngsters.
"The dependent old people over 65 can
hardly hope to cast more than one
fourth of the total vote of the Nation,
even if no restrictions are put upon their
voting by the vast majority in the pro-
ductive age or If the voting age is not
lowered to 18 years. If persons over the
age of IS or 40 are more conservative
than those below that age the Nation
will become more conservative. Whether
this will be good or bad for the country
depends on the relative values of expert
ence and enthusiasm But regardless Of
the medical sciences, nature still elimi-
mates old people much faster than young.
Practically all the saving of life has been
in the age groups under IS years.
For time, he says, there will be
small increase among those in the
prime Of life" group between 20 and 80.
In 1860 when the population of the coun-
try was undergoing one of its most rapid
increases, he points out, only about 80
per cent of the whole were in this group
and more than half were under 20. In
1890 nearly "A per cent were in the 20
to SO age group and by 1850 this will
amount to about IS per cent After 1850
the proportion in this age group will de-
crease to about 40 per cent, where it will
remain practically stationary. The in
dications are that the prime of life"
group he says, will remain practically
stationary for about 200 years. Thus
no great upset in the proportion of en-
ployables need be expected.
An increase of about 25,000 900 in the
total population of the Nation is to be
expected before the end of the century,
he says-assuming that immigration re-
mains unchanged and there is no monu-
mental disaster.
n;oc Aoo,,c~l