Evening star., 1940-02-04
Balkan Talks Seen
Affecting Effort Of
Allies for New Front
Determined YueosIov and
Italian Stand May Bor
Attack Upon Rumonio
By MAI. GEORGE
FIELDING ELIOT,

pause 10 UIlOS6 WHO Scck ~ &lCdu
grains Of knowledge from advance
reports, guesses and supposition.
Even when the official COM
munique at the close of the confer
ence has been made public, it will
still remain likely that the really
important decisions have been
reached behind closed doors, and will
be learned, if at all, only when their
results become apparent.
Yet therr are certain basic mill
tary considerations which it may be
we'll to examine now, which may
aid in interpreting the news from
Belgrade, and the subsequent course
Of events in the Balkans.
First, it must recalled that as
true Balkan conference, the Bel
grade meeting is incomplete. Neither
Bulgaria nor Hungary are members
OF the entente. Both are "irre-
dentist" nations, both fostering ter
ritorial claims against Rumania in
particular. Both have been re-
armed by Germany. In Bulgaria,
Russian influence is also very strong;
italian diplomacy has been active
In both countries. Neither, however
has any really vital dispute with
Yugoslavia.
Two Key Nations.
Hungary's geographical position
covers Rumania from a German
approach, Bulgaria's prevents allied
Turkish aid from coming overland
to that country. The attitude of
both is important: the attitude of
either might be decisive in future
Balkan crisis.
Next, the Importance of Italy's
viewpoint must be taken into ac-
count With the completion (prob-
ably this spring. Of four additional
battleships, the italian Navy be-
comes factor which, even more
seriously than before, must weigh
with all powers interested in Medit-
teranean affairs. Its presence
squarely athwart the line of COM
munications between Great Britain
and France and their Middle East
forces and allies (Turkey and Egypt
may well prove disturbing, to say
the least, considering that already
the activities of German raiders
have caused the withdrawal to the
Atlantic of capital units of the
British Mediterranean fleet.
Certainly this Italian Navy will
lend great weight to Italy's policy
and bargaining power. Italian
policy may be considered as anti
Russian, as definitely hostile to any
extension Of Russian influence into
the Balkan area. But it is not ipso
facto anti-German; indeed, the re-
port that Germany, in return for
economic favors. is prepared to
guarantee Rumania against Russian
attack may. if true, be partially due
to Italian influence or a desire to
placate Italian opinion. Italian in
fuence is particularly strong in
Yugoslavia, whose coast line is COM
manded by the Italian fleet and
which has two land frontiers with
italy, though both are mountainous
and difficult. It has been reported
that Italy. Yugoslavia and Hungary
have a common military under
standing"
Yugoslavia has an army excellent
In quality and human material, we'll
trained and we'll commanded, though
deficient in modern equipment. Its
terrain is much more difficult than
Poland's or thanAmuch of Rumania's.
It would not be an easy or safe
country for Germany to attack.
Yugoslavia Might Aid Allies.
On the other hand it could not
itself attack Germany unless as
sured Of immediate help and sup
port. Consulting only public senti-
ment, Yugoslavia would probably be
ready to fight for the allies; but
there are many other considerations
to be taken into account.
Certainly, of all the Balkan ma
tions, the most Immediately dan
gerous position is that of Rumania
If Rumania were to be invaded by
Germany (through or with Hun
gary or Russia or BOTH she might
resist for time, but could not hope
to do so successfully for very long,
unless helped from the outside.
Turkish and allied help might reach
Rumania either overland, through
Bulgaria or by sea or by air.
1t is possible that sufficient pres
sure might be put on Bulgaria by
Turkey to induce the Bulgarians to
let such aid 60 through, since it
is hard to see how Germany could
help Bulgaria Immediately, and since
the Bulgarian Army is in no pres
ent condition to fight Turkey. AS
for Russian help to Bulgaria, that
must come either through Rumania
"a matter again of time and un-
certainty or by sea, which would
be impossible in face of the Turkish
feet with even modest allied re-
enforcement.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is
probably, all factors considered, in
ferior to that of Turkey alone in
fighting strength. 1t could neither
assure the movement by sea of
Russian reinforcements to Bulgaria,
nor prevent the movement by sea
of allied or Turkish aid to Ru-
mania
1t takes time, however to load
troops on transports (presuming the
latter to be available in sufficient
numbers) and to move them across
the water and disembark them at
ports OF such limited capacity as
those Of Rumania-especially under
air attack.
This time factor, in the problem
under consideration, is of vital i'm
portance. 1t may we'll be deter
minative Of Germany's course. For
it may be definitely assumed that
Germany will not become involved
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