Evening star., 1940-12-22
Conditions Oppose
Any Nazi Attempt 10
Invade Britain Soon
Reich Chiefs Seen Willing
To Try Winter Attack
Only in Desperation
BY KIRKE L. SIMPSON,
Associated Press staff Writer.


Associated Press STAFF Writer.
Winter has come astronomically
for war-racked Europe and with it
prophecies from London that a
triple-fronted German attempt to
finish off England will be launched
and defeated-before spring bur-
geons.
Prime Minister Churchill has sup
ported that prediction. He told Par
lament that to offset waning Ger
manhattan war fortunes, Hitler
must do something now, or at any
rate within two months"
) 1t seems utterly fantastic to as
sumo that Hitler's high command,
skilled and carefully daring soldiers,
could assent to winter invasion
schedule except in desperation. The
risks are great, the seasonal ad-
vantages few.
Long Nights Cut Raid Losses.
The longest night of the year is
that of December 21-22. From then
the nights will slowly shorten and
the days lengthen until June.
Long nights admittedly permit
bombing with minimized losses for
the attackers; but also with greatly
increased bombing inaccuracy. Eng
land has endured months of night
attack with no hint of weakening.
A winter sea invasion by the Ger
mans. unless bombing had already
smashed British morale, would hold
less terror for England than did
of 10
mer and fall. British Channel
scouting in three dimensions, air,
surface and sub-surface, has been
perfected to fine art by six months
of practice That a barge-carried
Nazi Army could reach English soil
in substantial force without detec-
ton by night or day seems wholly
improbable.
Mr.. Churchill warned that breath
of England from heavy Nazi night
bombing raids might be merely in
preparation for a greater air assault.
That is possible.
Difficulties Will Grow.
1t is also possible, however, that
the breathing spells are due to
present Nazi difficulties of supply
ing fuel oil and gasoline for U-boat
and air fleets and at the same time
storing reserves at French, Dutch,
Belgian and Norwegian attack bases.
Those difficulties will increase, not
lessen, in the months just, ahead.
The Danube'S l 1,750-mile waterway,
that threads east and west Europe
together is Germany's main route
for transportation of Rumanian oil.
In winter it is ice-closed for many
weekS-the same weeks when by
British forecast it would be most
vitally needed to sustain Nazi
'all-out' attack on England.
Concentrated bombing of Nazi air
and U-boat bases on the invasion
coast and of critically important
rail functions deep into Germany
has marked British strategy. To
what extent Nazi oil supplies have
been hampered can only be con-
jectured, but beyond doubt it has
done some damage.
Parallel With Last War.
In December, January, February
and March the North Sea and Eng
hsh Channel are normally turbu-
lent. Crossing them to England
with thousands of troops and heavy
war gear jammed into low free
board, open barges would be diff
cult even unopposed.
There Is an odd if not significant
parallel between the forecasts of
Nazi winter-spring offensive now
and the last World War winter.
Then, in late 1917 the cables from
Europe hummed for months with
forecasts of final German break
through attempt in France in spring.
1t came on March 18, 1918, against
the British Fifth Army, the hinge of
the Franco-BritiSh battle line. 1t
STABBED deeply, wringing a backs-to-
ithe-wall order from the British
commander and bringing American
troops into their first major action
at Amiens before it was halted.
Eight months later Germany sur
rendered. German morale at home.
If not at the front, collapsed.