Evening star., 1940-01-14
Trade Coastino
Al Pre-HoIidav
High Levels
Snow, Cold and Ice
Help Retail Business
To Good Showing
BY SMITH REAVIS,
Associated Press Business Writer,

days, with doubt in some quarters
and optimism in others as to its
course over the next few months.
Snow. cold and ice helped retail
trade to good showing: Industrial
activity gained a little on the
strength of orders booked last fall,
now being hurried to delivery, while
demand for the heavier goods con-
tinued at between so and 60 per cent
of the present output rate.
The stock market, which some
consider important and others dis
dain as an indicator of future
trends, took the gloomy view and
virtually all the price gains regis
tered since the European war began
were finally wiped out.
Federal Loans Administrator Jesse
H. Jones was not as pessimistic as
the market.
He said:
IT think we may very we'll look
forward to a good year; in fact a
very satisfactory year, unless we are
too greedy. -" We still must have
more national income. but we can't
Jump too fast or We'll miss the
floor"
Optimistic Over 1910.
He added he thought 1910 would
be as good year as 1899, which was
satisfactory ION the way up"
Outstanding industrial events OF
the week were jump in automo-
bile production to 11l.330 units
against 87,5lO the preceding period
and the prediction by Wards auto
motive reports that output for the
month would set a'record for any
January.
On the other hand auto dealers,
especially in suburban areas, found
sales inpeded by snow and ice.
The Associated Press index of in
dustrial activity climbed a little to
111.8 per cent of the 1929-30 average,
compared with 110.7 the first week
of the year and 920 year ago. Steel
production, cotton textile and rayon
weaving advanced, while electric
power output and railroad freight
carloadings for the week ended
January 6 increased sharply.
Disappointing was a drop of 46
per cent under the 1899 compara-
tive in engineering construction
awards, combined with the fact
residential building contracts we're
unchanged from the previous week
and showed little increase over the
rather scanty figures of late De-
cember
Bad Weather Blamed.
One explanation given was that
the extremely inclement weather
forced postponement of plans for
home building and another was that
the engineering award comparison
with 1889 suffered from the fact
that in the similar period last year
there was rush to get in under
P. w. A. contracts. Private heavy
construction, it was noted, was II
per cent above that of 1889, reflect
ing in a measure, plans for plant
expansion and renovation fornu-
lated over the last six months or so.
One heartening feature of the
week was the number of new plant
construction and expansion plans
announced. In the utility field
alone, said Electrical World, pro-
gram for S605 100000 in new con-
struction was laid down by the COM
panies, the biggest budget of its
sort since 1880 and Al per cent more
than in 1899
This means business for the steel.
construction, machine tool and elec-
trical equipment makers, all of whom
are working at pretty close to ca
pacity at the present time, but
whose new orders have dwindled in
the last month or so.
Foreign orders, born of the war.
still have not materialized to any
great extent, according to the vari-
Gus organizations dealing with in
ternational trade. There has been
a heavy demand for machine tools.
but that commenced last spring and
has been increasing steadily since.
Aircraft Is Exception.
Aircraft proved the single excep-
ton. An authoritative source said
the British and French governments
were arranging for about 10000 ad-
ditional American military planes to
be delivered within the next two
years. providing the hostilities lasted
that long.
Consensus of a number of New
York businessmen and bankers was
that industry in the next few
months was facing test and that
should the heavy goods revival now
being experienced peter out into a
mere consumers goods recovery, the
momentum gained in the fall pickup
might not carry through until the
seasonal spring gains appear, and
might even jeopardize them.
1t depends, they said. on whether
executives can see enough business,
far enough ahead, to induce them
to risk capital in equipment needed
after 10 years of depression, recov-
cry and recession. Many produc-
tive facilities, in that period, had
been permitted more or less to go
to pot or were not modernized.
The war, possibilities of peace and
many other factors, including con-
tinued consumer purchasing power,
enter into the problem, it was as
serted.
One executive said that consider
ing all circumstances, including the
season, new orders were neither
high nor low" In steel, it was de-
clared, while shipments are out
running new business about two to
one, the expected heavy demand
from the automobile makers, which
may come in February, will help to
take up the slack and hold the in
dustry at profitable output.
Reservations Cited.
Said Iron Age:
"The fact that some consumers
see pretty good business for some
months ahead is indicated by q
of reservations for fhe