Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-09-22
Many Obstacles
Face WiIIkie
By ODen L. Scott.

campaign 1Or tnlrQ term already is as
good as won. This confidence traces in
part to the belief that voters will be
slow to change horses in the midst of an
unruly stream of world developments
1t traces in some other part to the ap-
parent trend away from Wendell Will
kie that is disclosed by the nationally
recognized polls of public opinion.
There is, however, an even greater rea-
son for the White House confidence
This reason grows from the Republican
candidates own campaign technique
Mr.. Willkie, 1t seems, has sacrificed the
issues about which the Democrats were
worried and around which the Repub-
leans in Congress had long sought to
build their appeal in the 1910 campaign
Republican Congressman, including the
vice presidential candidate Senator Nc
Nary, and the party's national chairman,
Representative Joe Martin, were build
ing up the issue of isolation for the
United States war avoid
ance, aloofness from the affairs of Eu-
rope and Asia and avoidance of any
hasty jump by this country into an
American militarism as represented by
CONSUMPTION. Republicans of Congress
| sought to capitalize on the tariff issue
through attack on trade agreement pol
icy and the debt issue by emphasizing
their desire to 60 slow in dealing with
foreign situations that would require vast
armament OUTLAWS.
Mr.. Willkie, as the party's standard
bearer, Immediately threw overheard all
OF these issues. He matched Mr.. Roose-
welt in his readiness to stand up to Chan
cellor Hitler. He came out strongly for
more aid to Britain. He favored con-
scription. He Endorsed trade agreements.
In word, Candidate Willkie discarded
the whole issue of isolation which many
in his party had expected to be the major
1910 issue
Then Mr.. Willkie went even farther
and got himself tangled in another issue.
A big concern of the people of this
country is the national debt. To check
the growth of that debt, two courses are
possible. One is to reduce spending, the
other to increase taxes very greatly.
Three real sources of possible spending
reduction are in the fields of armament,
relief and social security, and agriculture
The Republican candidate has promised
to spend more money than Mr.. Roose
welt and to spend it faster in the field of
armament. He has promised farmers
that he will not cut their subsidies He
has told relief people and those getting
social security benefits-old-age pensions,
old-age insurance, unemployment in
surance-that he will continue those
benefits.
1t may be that as President Mr..
Willkie could greatly reduce W. P. A.
rolls. But If he eliminated relief entirely
he would save only about 81 900 900 900
in budget of s12 900, 100000. His prom
Use to spend more money on armament
than Mr.. Roosevelt can spend, would easily
Offset this $1,000 100000 saving. Conse-
quently, the one way to bring about a
balanced budget would be through higher
taxes. Yet the Republican candidate has
promised businessmen that he will re-
duce their taxes. This may mean that
he favors greatly increased taxes on con-
sumers to take the place of some cor
poration income taxes, but Mr.. Willkie
has not yet been specific on that point.
The fact seems to be that the Repub-
lican candidate has very definitely COM
promised the two big issues that might
have supported his campaign.
AS a result of this situation many
Republican members of Congress not
only are unhappy, but are forced by cir
cumstances to conduct their campaigns
rather independently of the national
campaign in order to capitalize on the
issues they have built up for them
selves. This, in turn. detracts from the
aggressive sort of local support that any
presidential candidate needs.
Mr. Willkie does have the very real
issue of third term. He now is seek
ing to build an issue of democracy VS.
misunderstanding that third term
for Mr. Roosevelt will mean the end of
democracy Mr.. Hoover in 1882 and
Mr. Landon it 1886 both used that same
issue, without the third-term angle, and
made little Roadway with it. Whether
the 1910 candidate can succeed where the
others failed, remains to be seen. New
Dealers are inclined to point out that in
Canada, where there is democracy, the
head of the government, Mackenzie
King. already has served IA years as
Prime Minister and is on the way to
serve 10 years without raising a question
of dictatorship. This would be the same
as five terms for a President of the
United States. Mr. Roosevelt is quoted
as saying that If he gets three terms
he won't want a fourth.
There remains the issue of recovery VS..
| depression.
Republicans are emphasizing the fail
| ure of the New Deal to produce recovery
in industry and jobs for all The trouble
here is, however, that If England holds
out, the next two months will be months
of very strong activity within industry
and of high levels in retail trade. Always
in the past improving business has been
an incentive to voters to keep in power
the party already in power. This can
be very definite handicap for the Re-
publicans, inasmuch as this greater
activity is influencing an improved level
of farm income.
These are some of the reasons for the
optimism that pervades the White House
group. There are others.
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