Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1940-10-09
7ensi0n
|Growing
In Far East
Opening Of Burmu
Rood Unlikely to
Cause War
By DEWITT MACKENZIE,

BY DEWITT MACKENZIE,
Does another great war lie at the
end of the Burma road which winds
its way up through China's primeval
mountains?
Or is it likely Gas some seem to
think that threats will not be
backed by deeds?
Those are questions which call for
the most careful consideration,
since there can be no doubt that
dangerous situation exists.
A good deal of bluff has been
tossed about land has been got
away with by one or another IN
the Far East since the japanese in
1881 set their war machine rolling
in conquest across the rich plains
of Manchuria.
That was speculative venture
feeler-evolved from the grandiose
idea of ousting the Western powers
from Eastern Asia and establishing
Nipponese hegemony over that vast
and rich area. Japan swung what
was in part bluff and made it
stick-thereby breaking trail for
Mussolini and Hitler.
Certain Amount of Bluff.
Since that time we have seen much
of bluff in one form or another. It's
likely. too. that there's a certain
amount of it involved in the present
anglo-Japanese crisis. which re-
wolves about Britains decision to
challenge Japan's demands and re-
open the Burma road for the pas.
sage of war supplies to China.
There is a vast difference. how
ever, between the position today and
that of 1881, or for that matter Of
many later dates. A bluff which
might have been called successfully
not so long ago. now Is supported
by grim determination to back 1t
up If necessary.
Japan and Britain, both hard
pressed in life and death wars. have
reached the point where neither is
too great, and the investments too
colossal.
So Britain appears finally to have
called for showdown over the
japanese policy which would de-
prive England of the vast politico-
economic influence it long has ex.
ercised in Eastern Asia. And Nip
pom, having thrown every resource
it has into its eXpansionist program,
and mortgaged its future for gener-
atoms. is equally set on carrying 1t
through.
That is why the present situation
is grave. War could grow out Of
it very easily.
Can't Depend on Logic.
It's one thing to see the logical
aspects Of the position-and another
TO figure out what may happen. The
trouble Is that we no longer can
depend on logic being followed for
minds are being moved by passion
and desperation.
Considering the critical stage Of
Japan's program of expansion by
costly force. it would be logical from
my viewpoint to expect her to be
prepared to fight England If neces-
sarv. This thought is emphasized
by the great handicaps under which
Britain labors because OF her war
with the axis powers in Europe.
However, while Japan may be
ready to battle the British. it is
equally logical to expect TOXIC to
try to steer clear of such a war II
it fears America will 60 to John
Bulls aid.
1t might be expected. too. that
japan would avoid drawing fire from
Russia. Only yesterday a resump-
ton of Russo-American talks at the
State Department revived conjecture
on the possibility that Far Eastern
developments might establish basis
for active collaboration between
Washington. Moscow and London.
There are many sound reasons
why Japan should avoid war with
America. A very potent one lies
in our naval might and unlimited
resources. Beyond that We are the
greatest buyers of japanese goods.
and last year absorbed some 20 per
cent of Nippon's total world sales.
We are Japan'S major source Of
raw materials. We provide her with
more than a third Of her supplies
and the great bulk of the materials
essential to the conduct of war. An
embargo on these military necessi.
ties likely would cripple the jap
anese fighting machine.
Japan Lacks Bases.
Should Japan find herself in war
with Britain and also discover that
her fears of American and Russian
Intervention are justified. she would,
to say the least. be in a desperate
position, especially with her lack of
resources. Neither Germany nor
Italy could help her. She lacks
bases for operations against dis
tant detectives like the Netherlands
Indies.
And so we could go on naming
logical reasons why Toxic should
proceed cautiously. However. there
can be no assurance that the eau
tious minds will be able to control
the situation.
The greatest danger lies in the
possibility that the opponents of
force may precipitate some event
that will result in a great explo-
sion. It's safe to say that Hitler
and Mussolini will be pushing Japan
into the fight as hard as possible in
order to further their own interests.
In itself the Burma road re.
opening isn't likely to cause war.