Evening star., 1940-10-18
Defense Is Expected
To Add 100000
Jobs in 1941
B. A. {. Forecasts Better
Demand for Some
Farm Products

BY the Associated Press.
The Bureau of Agricultural Eco
nomics predicted yesterday that
American business and industrial
activity in 1941. influenced largely
by national defense spending
should expand to the extent of
employing at least 100000 more
persons than in 1910.
Such an increase. when coupled
with prospective enlargement Of the
armed forces under conscription
should, the bureau said, reduce the
Nations unemployment rolls
which it placed at between 5000 900
and 5000 00O-by about $500, 900
persons.
These forecasts were contained in
the bureaus annual outlook report
on economic conditions for the year
ahead.
Other developments forecast in
cluded higher wholesale prices,
some wage increases. improved do
mestic demand for some farm
products, an increase in steel pro-
duction to the record levels of 1916,
1917 and 1929, modest" improve
ment in textile production. con
siderable" increase in heavy con-
struction and a further slump in
agricultural exports.
Based on Defense Plans.
The bureau explained that its
forecasts were based on the defense
program as now projected and upon
war would continue.
IF the international situation as
it involves the United States should
become much more acute. military
expenditures in 194l might be much
greater, industrial activity would
experience greater increase, price
changes might be greater and the
effects on farmers Of these condi-
tions would be greater and some
what different than otherwise in
dicated."
The bureau said that a settle
ment of some of the world present
difficulties would, on the other hand,
bring "a letdown in tension and de-
celerate the industrial machine"
The bureau said that industrial
exports to Great Britain should in
crease if that nation continues the
fight with Germany. 1t is believed,
the bureau added, that the British
have sufficient buying power to
finance any possible purchases of
industrial products in this country
during 1941
The defense program already is
having "a very stimulating effect"
upon general business sentiment
and indirectly upon lines Of in
dustrial activity not directly bene-
fitted by defense expenditures, the
bureau said.
More Confidence Seen.
businessmen are anticipating
several years of generally favorable
business conditions and possibly
rising prices, which may cause them
to be less apprehensive over their
inventory positions and more in
clined to take risks in developing
new or expanding old enterprises,
Buyers of durable consumers goods
such as houses and automobiles may
be similarly affected"
The bureau said the prospective
improvement in consumer buying
power should be reflected in in
creased demand for such farm COM
modities as meats, dairy and poultry
products, some fruits and vegetables.
Farm cash income. it said, should
be larger than in 1910, but such an
increase would probably be partly
Offset, it explained, by higher pro-
duction costs.
The, bureau said that if the war
continues exports of industrial prod
ucts to South America and other
parts of the world also may increase
somewhat. Such expansion will be
definitely limited, the bureau said.
by restricted purchasing power of
these countries, which have lost
many of their usual markets for
their surplus agricultural and in
duStrial raw materials