Evening star., 1940-02-18
Foreign Orders
Check Decline
In Business
Shipments Of Metals
And Machinery Help
To Offset Log
BY SMITH REAVIS,
Associated Press Business Writer,

Associated Press Business writer.
NEW YORK, Feb. 17.-Business
leaders surveyed today a wartime
rise IN foreign trade as q check on
the new year drop In factory output
and a possible primer Of the in
dustrial pump in the spring and
summer.
Expanded exports of metals and
machinery, 1t was said, have acted
lately as a counter pull against the
slump in domestic buying following
the spectacular wave Of orders at
the start Of the war last September.
While mill and factory production
continued to decline, a new wave of
buying rolled into the copper market
this week. United States consumers
Joined foreign buyers in purchases
OF the vital war metal on the news
France had placed additional big
orders for copper from Western
Hemisphere sources.
The squirt in copper buying, some
analysts suggested, was the first i'm
portant new year indication that
wartime demands may play a larger
role In lifting industry out of its
decline later in the year.
Exports Help Steel.
Steel men reported export busi-
ness was sustaining force for the
industry against the new year fall
In operations which has wiped out
most OF the September November
gains. From about 86 per cent Of
capacity in mid-January, the steel
producing rate has slumped to
around SO per cent and further
shrinkage was forecast before the
turn comes.
Like textiles and other industries,
steel mills were swamped with orders
last autumn. Consumers hastened
to lay in supplies on expectation Of
higher prices and war orders. When
this mountain of untitled orders be-
gan to decline, factory managers
sought to bring production into
closer line with new buying.
The Associated Press index of In.
dustrial activity has declined for five
consecutive weeks. 1t now stands at
1923 per cent of the 1929-30 level,
compared with the January peak Of
about Ill and 884 year ago.
War orders from abroad have
fallen far short Of the expectations
many held last September. Mean.
while. the stalemated struggle on
the western front and the United
States ban on credits to warning
countries forced revision of hasty
conclusions on trade prospects. ~.
Nevertheless. purchases Of certain
industrial products have reached
substantial proportions, as revealed
IN United States commerce data.
January exports, contrary to the
usual trend, held close to the nine,
year peak attained In December. :
i Losses Are Offset.
Offsetting losses in sales Of farm
products, excluding cotton, have
been sharp gains in shipments of
metals and factory made products,
including aircraft. Exports of metals
and manufacturers, for instance,
jumped to $65, ,719 900, compared with
$25, ,476,000 in January, 1889. Iron
and steel mill products accounted
sfor $33 ,389 900, against $13,525, 900 in
the 1889 month.
The continued inflow of gold from
!. the British Empire, Scandinavian
J countries and other sources, even
Russia, provided purchasing power
for foreign orders and suggested the
allies and neutrals might be accu-
mulating exchange reserves for use
IT the fighting spreads in the spring
and summer.
Obscured IN the trade data was
the rejuvenating influence Of war
business on the American merchant
marine. Demand for shipping space
to the war zones was said to be in
excess OF available offerings, causing
boosts in tonnage rates. American
owners found q ready market abroad
for old ships.
Applications for sale of American
vessels mounted in the Maritime
commission, opening the way for
replacement with newer craft as
the Governments building program
strikes full stride. At the same
time shipping officials studied
chances of handling trade routes
abandoned by European companies
whose bottoms have been taken for
war service.
BY way Of contrast, the recession
in other industries. brought out in
sharper relief ar-stimulated enter
prise in shipping, aircraft and tool
making. Employment in these lines
was expected to remain op the
upgrade and make considerable con.
tribution to pay rolls If the empha-
sis on fighting equipment continues
to reorient industrial activity.
| Copper Buying Revives.
The revival of copper buying
echoed in stock market upturn
IN copper shares and steels toward
the end of the week.
Generally, speculation in Wall
Street followed the cautious course
Of recent months, but there was 4
growing disposition in brokerage
quarters to look for an early taper.
ing of the business Decline fol.
lowed by some seasonal increase
in March and April.
Among traders and businessmen.
however, the inclination has been
to wait for developments both on
the warning fronts abroad and poli-
(See BUSINESS, Page Esq