Evening star., 1940-03-31
Signs Of Spring
Revival Cheer
Trade Circles
Cotton Textile Sales,
Steel Exports and
Stock Rally Hailed
BY FRANK MacMILLEN,
Associated Press Businesx Writer


Associated Press Business Writer.
NEW YORK, March 3O.-Scat.
tered signs Of spring revival Of
buying in key markets raised hopes
IN business circles today for a re-
versal OF the years decline in factory
output.
Preparing to open books on second
quarter operations, industrial leaders
sifted these trends as possible hints
OF general turn around In business
later in the year:
l. The heaviest wave of buying in
cotton textiles since the autumn war
boom petered out.
2. Mounting export demand for
steel, putting prop under one Of
the strategic sectors of heavy in
dustry.
3. The sharpest upturn in stocks
since October following declaration
of a 81 dividend on the common
stock of United States Steel Corp.
4. Reports inventories in some
lines were starting to decline after
the tremendous buying to increase
inventory in the early weeks of the
war
Worth Street-New York's big tex
tile trading center-saw an influx Of
orders for cotton goods this week
after one of the quietiest periods in
many years during most OF the
winter.
Similarly, buying suddenly ex-
panded in Wall Streets security
markets after weeks of inactivity.
Many brokers took the U. S. Steel
dividend, the first since 1887 for the
common stock. as gesture of opti-
mism for the future
Serves as Spring Tonic.
In neither of these keen minded
centers of speculation and business
observation was the buying spectacu-
lar in scope. But the change acted
as spring tonic on hopes in business
circles for an impending turn in the
main trend of factory activity.
The September October fare-up
in buying on the outbreak of the
war. followed by the winters long
slack. put industry through one of
its widest fluctuations on record.
Steel doomed from around 60 per
cent of capacity late in August to
about 94 then fell back to approxi-
mately the pre-war level. The latest
trade estimate of the operating rate
was GOT.
Closely following the rise and fall
OF the steel rate. the Associated
Press index of industrial activity
now is back to 963 per cent of the
1929-30 level from the ten-year
peak at 1921 in December. The
wartime jump started from 95.S. A
year ago the index stood at $50.
Steel men suggested the operating
rate might settle lower but the i'm
preston prevailed in some quarters
that progress was being made in
liquidating the premature" war
boom and finding a base for re-
sumption of the forward move
ment.
Adding to this impression, some
authorities said. was a reversal Of
the decline in steel in the Birming-
ham district, with new orders out
weighing shipments The Birming-
ham district frequently has showed
the way for other steel eenters.
Steel Exports Heavy.
Foreign trade figures revealed
steel exports at the highest level in
20 years in the shift of metal orders
to this market from warning nations
and increased buying for war needs
of the allies.
Further expansion in aircraft
sales was anticipated, with allied
commissions negotiating for 5000
more war planes. The aviation in
dustry has been increasing its
manufacturing capacity and en-
ployment.
Also rated fourishing war baby"
industries were shipbuilding and
machine tool.
expanding activity in these fields.
While unable yet to turn the ma ior
trend, is considered likely to exert
more influence in providing a lift
later IN the spring. Backing these
war babies" analysts noted, is a
seasonal rise in home building, so
lar reflected chiefly in contracts
and applications for Federal hous-
ing loans rather than actual con-
Struction.
Trade observers said export buy
ing in steel. especially heavy the
last few weeks. appears to have
given needed support to the in
dustry's price structure. Export
orders. sought at discounts from
domestic quotations before the war
were said to be on a firm level with
domestic prices.
Much of the steel for export. II
was said. has been going to Canada.
either for use in busy industries
there or for trans-shipment abroad
In one quarter 1t was estimated cur
rent steel exports may amount to
as much as IA per cent of total
shipments, considering the decline in
the domestic proportion of the total
since January.
Steel exports In the first two
months of this year tripled the fie-
ures for the comparable 1899 period.
Other Lines Curtailed.
AS far as total export business was
concerned, analysts pointed out, the
expanding wartime trade in air.
craft, metals and machines of many
kinds has been Offset in large part