Evening star., 1940-07-05
Largest Steel Output
Since 1929 Forecast
In Second Half
Holiday LuII Expected
To Be Followed by
Busy Summer
BY the Associated Press,

BY the Associated Press.
NEW YORK, July 5.-The steel
industry, some of its executives be-
heve, will turn out in the second
half of this year the largest tonnage
for any similar period since the big
boom year of 1929.
Observers generally are willing to
accept this forecast on the basis of
present heavy backlogs of orders
and the virtual certainty of huge
new demands for steel in connec-
ton with the national defense pro-
gram.
Many of the nations steel furnaces
were banked for Independence Dav
and operations for the week will be
down sharply from the preceding
weeks level of 86.5 per cent of ca
pacity.
This is the usual midyear lull in
cident to the holiday, but this year.
IN the opinion of steel men, it is
likely to be the prelude to a sum-
mer expansion of proportions not
often recorded in the last decade.
Defense needs alone are expected
TO require from 10000 900 to Is. .OOO,-
600 tons of steel over the next two
years. This would represent nearly
zO per cent or more of the industry's
effective capacity. But in the offing
there are other important calls for
steel, too.
War Contracts Mount.
Allied steel orders placed before
Frances surrender TO GERMANY are
considerable and they have been
largely assumed by Britain. New
British contracts were reported to
have been signed within the last
few weeks. Notable among these
and reported in this weeks Iron Age
was purchase of $4,000 tons of 90
pound steel rails for repair of anv
bombing damage to English rail-
roads.
Domestic industrial sources also
may be counted on to place heavy
steel tonnages during the second
half. according to purchasing agents.
One OF the most interesting to the
steel producers is the transporta-
ton industry now in the midst of a
sharp business upturn.
Railroad freight loadings have
been running recently at we'll above
100000 cars weekly and some quar-
ters have predicted a peak of around
100000 cars in the autumn. Some
OF the larger systems, including the
pennsylvania, have arranged for ex-
tensive purchases of new cars and
locomotives to be prepared for the
expected rise in traffic. Many other
roads are said to be ready to put out
equipment inquiries and it all adds
up to big steel tonnages.
Building Needs Cited.
Industrial and residential con-
struction, likewise accounting for
heavy steel consumption, has been
holding good pace through the
year despite the war. Industrial
building activity, moreover, is ex-
pected to feel a marked stimulus
from needed expansion of factories
1or defense materials and lupplies
This years peak rate for steel
activity was 87.7 per cent in the
week ended June II. Last wear the
got as high as 944 Der cent
IN November on protective buvine
largely for inventory. Consumers
were fearful the war would bring
higher prices and delivery DELAYS
In the early spring this wear the
output dropped to a low of 60 per
cent. The real climb started in
May.
Iron Age said next weeks OPERA
tions would snap back" which sug-
gest return to a rate of better than
30 per cent. This, in any circum-
stances, is an impressive level for
July.
Also it would be in marked con-
trast with the July rate of the last
few years. A year ago the mills
slowed down to 385 per cent for the
holiday week, against 74.2 per cent
this year.