Evening star., 1940-12-10
Uneven Prosperity
Forecast by Ayres
In Coming Year
Sees industrial Boom,
With Farm Areas
In Depression
By the Associated Press.

By the Associated Press.
CLEVELAND, Dec. 1o.-Looking at
l94l business prospects, Col Leonard
P Ayres today foresaw areas of
prosperity and depression, of boom
and slump scattered in strange fash
ion over our country" but no large
and sudden advances in the cost Of
living"
Predicting highly specialized
boom during the next two years or
more quite unlike any of the pre-
vious periods of prosperity We have
examined" Col. Ayres forecast:
Prosperity for industrial regions,
tidewatsr communities where ships
are built. the entire iron and steel
industry. Great Lake shipping and
the coal-carrying railroads:
Real or near depression for agir-
cultural regions which formerly sold
important parts of their production
to Europe, because there is little
possibility that increased domestic
demand can make up for the loss of
export outlets for much of our agri-
cultural production"
Speaks at Luncheon.
Col. Ayres came here from Wash
ington to make his annual business
predictions before a Chamber of
Commerce luncheon The 6l-year-
old economist-statistician recently
was recalled to his World War posi-
ton as chief statistical officer of the
Army.
Among Col Ayres' observations:
boom in light industries will
closely follow the one in heavy in
dustries so that by mid-l941 both
will be fully employed" and striv-
ing to increase production:
Advance in the cost of building is
inevitable;
There should be no fear of expe-
rienclng in l94l inf1ationary price
increases that result in large and
sudden advances in the cost of liv-
ing;
Stock prices should follow a gener-
ally rising trend, but "a prolonged
or enthusiastic bull market" is un-
likely because taX-minded investors
ARE wary:
Bond prices should reach highest
levels some time in 194l, then turn
slowly downward:
Probabilities are that coming
boom conditions will be of such
r HIa ,,.;1I
be better in consumer goods indus
tries in most cases Ito go at once to
two shifts to avoid expensive over
time" and
Sees Need for Reserves.
Companies should be cautious
and conservative in making dividend
payments" in order to have the
considerable money" needed to
transform business back to the
normal pursuits of peace"
Day Dy day We are realizing the
need for haste" in the rearmament
program, Col Ayres declared. Our
immediate problem in the produc-
ton Of munitions is not merely how
much, but it is even more actually
how soon.
Our huge undertaking is an i'm
mensely costly one, for We are try
ing to arm in haste. We are trying
to buy days with dollars
Our capacity for industrial pro-
duction is greater than that of Ger.
many. greater than that of Europe.
probably greater even than that Of
all the rest of the world combined
That was true before the war began,
and the balance is tipping steadily
further in our favor each day.
Nevertheless. in order to get our
task completed as rapidly as it must
be, We shall need all the energy that
we can muster, and all the cooper
alton of which we are capable The
task is formidable for Germany
really has q secret weapon 1t is a
weapon that we had once and .
the name of that weapon is hard
work. We cannot win without it,
but with it we can win