Evening star., 1940-05-05
Feurs Nation Foces
Grove Decisions
By owen L. Scott.

Signs increase that the people Of this
country win need to think fast and
clearly II they are to be prepared to
make the decisions that soon may be
forced upon them. The complacent idea
that England and France are sure to
win against Germany and the equally
complacent idea that Japan is scared OF
the United States in the Pacific are
having to be modified.
The simple fact is that the highest
omctals Of this Government with the
best sources Of information are far
from certain that the allies can win this
war and also are far from certain that,
If the opportunity offers. Japan will not
undertake further aggressions that will
affect American interests in the Far
East.
Under the circumstances there are two
clear courses for this country to follow.
One course is that Of President Roose-
velt and Cordell Hull. Those two on
cials. who are directing American for
eign policy within the framework of
the Neutrality Act, are convinced that
the United States cannot get along In 4
world dominated in Europe by Germany
and in the Far East by Japan. They are
prepared to take every step, possibly
short OF war, to aid Britain and France
and to checkmate Japan. Their obvious
conclusion Is that II Germany can be
defeated and Japan blocked there can
be return to normal In world af1airs.
Other equally well informed and
equally astute individuals question the
Presidents conclusions and insist that,
regardless of the outcome of the wars
and aggressions in Europe and Asia, the
United States will have to adjust itself
to different world. They strongly urge
a policy of isolation, with American at
tention centered on this hemisphere.
The isolationists make the following
points:
First, with regard to the Far East.
The United States has made up its mind
to get out Of the Philippines in 1916. 1t
is hardly good sense to fight for some
thing that already has been sacrificed.
The United States still insists upon the
open door" in China. But it scarcely
seems wise to fight a war costing bill
lions in dollars and many lives to protect
q trade worth from $4,000 900 to $75,-
100000 year. The United States has q
deep interest in protecting its supplies Of
rubber and tin in the Dutch East Indies
and the British Federated Malay States.
But there are substitutes for both, and
tin can be found in Bolivia Why fight
war about $50 900 900 worth Of rubber
and $4,000 900 worth of tin, when an in
vestment of few hundred million dol
lars will give this country all the rubber
substitutes 1t needs and when a little
research will show ways to substitute
Bolivian tin for Malay tin.
Second. with regard to Europe The
United States wants very much to re-
store free trade in the world. 1t would
be very nice If Europe would buy the
surplus American farm products that
press on markets at home and create
such bothersome political problems. The
world would be much simpler for this
country II free exchange could once
again displace German methods Of con-
trolled trade. But the United States
played major role in forcing con-
trolled trade upon the world by its post
war tariff policies. Britain and France
now are copying those methods devel-
oped by Germany. There is very slight
prospect that either Of those nations
will return to free trade and relatively
free exchange Of goods even if they win
ho Drt<
pires now are being welded into a single
trading unit and are using the German
methods.
Isolationists think that it is time for
this country to forget about the troubles
OF the rest of the world and to devote
all attention and energy to making ad-
justments that certainly are to come,
regardless of the fate of Germany and
Japan.
Those adjustments will be difficult,
but the United States of all of the ma
tions Of the world, can make them most
easily.
The problem of isolation, in simple
terms, is this: To substitute planning in
the operation Of the economic system for
the once automatic controls Of rela-
lively free exchange Of goods among the
nations. Prices of goods and investment
Of surplus funds once were controlled by
worldwide forces of competition reflect
ing themselves In market places. The
heart of control was a gold standard Of
exchange among the principal trading
nations.
All of that now is out the window.
The President and Cordell Hull think it
can be brought back. They believe that
If only the allies can win and If Japan
can be blocked, the way will be opened
to a revival Of the old economic forms
to which business and finance in this
country are accustomed.
The isolationists doubt that the Presi-
dents conclusion Is true.
They believe that planning will be
forced In any event. They are convinced
that after the war, with millions of men
demobilized, there will be fierce competi-
ton for available world markets. From
this competition will flow demands for
higher and higher barriers against goods
from other nations, as each nation tries
to protect its own market for the home
producers
Essentially, the problem is to work out
a program Of investments at home and
distribution Of income at home that
will permit the American people to alb
sorb the products that American indus