The Wilmington morning star., 1940-12-22
War
interpretive
BY KIRKE L. P

BY KIRKE l.. SIMPSON
Winter has come astronomically
for war-racked Europe and with
it prophecies from London that a
triple-fronted German attempt to
finish off England will be launched
and defeated-before spring bur-
geons.
Prime Minister Churchill has
supposed that prediction. He told
parliament that to offset waning
German-Itaian Axis war fortunes,
Hitler must do something now,
or at any rate within two months"
1t seems utterly fantastic to as
sumo that Hitler's high command,
skilled and carefully daring SOL
diers, could assent to a winter in.
vasion schedule except in despera-
ton. The risks are great, the sea-
sonal advantages few.
The longest night of the year is
that of December 21-22. From then
the nights will slowly shorten and
the days lengthen until June.
Long nights admittedly permit
bombing with minimized losses for
the attackers; but also with great.
ly increased bombing inaccuracy
England has endured months of
night attack with no hint Of weak
ening.
A winter sea invasion by the
Germans, unless bombing had al
ready smashed British morale
would hold less terror for England
than did the invasion threats OF
last summer and fall. British chan
mel scouting in three dimensions,
air, surface and sub-surface, has
been perfected to a fine art by
six months Of practice. That a
Exaggerated Nazi army could
reach English soil in substantial
force without detection by night
or day seems wholly improbable.
Churchill warned that breathing
spells for London or the rest of
England from heavy Nazi night
bombing raids might be merely in
preparation for a greater air as
sault. That is possible.
1t is also possible, however, that
the breathing spells are due to
present Nazi difficulties of supply
ing fuel oil and gasoline for U-boat
and air fleets and at the same
time storing reserves at French,
Dutch, Belgian and Norwegian at
tack bases. Those difficulties will
increase, not lessen, in the months
just ahead.
The Danube's 1,75O mile water
way that threads east and west
Europe together is Germany's
main route for transportation Of
Rumanian oil. In winter, it is iced
closed for many weeks-the same
weeks when by British forecast it
would be most vitality needed to
sustain a Nazi about attack on
England.
Concentrated bombing of Nazi
air and U-boat bases on the in
vasion coast, and of critically i'm
portant rail functions deep into
Germany has marked British
strategy. To what extent Nazi oil
supplies have been hampered can
only be conjectured, but beyond
doubt it has done some damage.
In December, January, Febru-
airy and March, the North sea and
English channel are turbul-
ent. Crossing them to Eng
land with thousands of troops and
heavy war gear damned into low
freeboard, open barges would be
difficult even unopposed.
There is an odd, if not significant
parallel between the forecasts of a
Nazi winter-spring offensive now
and the last World war winter.
Then, in late 1917, the cables from
Europe hummed for months with
forecasts of a final German break
through attempt in France in
spring.
It came on March 10, 1918,
against the British fifth army, the
hinge of the Franco-British battle
line. It stabbed deeply, wringing
a backs-to-the-wal order from the
British commander, and bringing
American troops into their first
major action at Amiens before it
was halted.
Eight months later, Germany
surrendered. German morale at
home if not at the front col
lapsed.