Evening star., 1939-11-06
Principal Factors
In VA. Working for
lis Pro|ongation
DeIoy Now Gives Germany
Chance to Train More
Army Reserves
Nv WILLIAM BIRD,

long will the war last? This Is =
question thousands Of people are
asking every day. Some ask it SIM
ply out of pure curiosity, others out
of the anguish Of having relatives
or friends in the fighting forces,
still others because the war has
disrupted their normal business and
way Of life and they would like to
have some indication Of how long
this abnormal condition is likely
to continue so that they may make
plans in consequence.
There Is, of course, no man living
who can give categorical answer
to such question, the solution of
which depends on too many un-
known factors. It is very much
like trying to predict which way
the stock market is going to turn.
Nobody can be said to know" but
obviously the man who weighs care
fully all the known factors of the
problem is in a better position to
Judge than one who acts on i'm
pulse or lunches. In the last an
alysis, however, the guesser of the
wars duration, like the speculator,
must reach his own conclusion on
whatever data he can assemble
Nobody can do it for him.
I shall not, therefor, attempt
the impossible task of predicting
when the war will end, but it may
be useful to enumerate some of the
factors which indicate long war,
and some possible happenings which
might operate to shorten it, or even
to bring 1t to an abrupt conclu-
sion.
May Last Up to 10 Years.
In general, it may be said that if
the war continues on the same scale
and on the same battlef1elds as dur
ing the first two months, there is
no material reason why it should
not last 4. 6 or even 10 years.
Indeed. at the rate it is going now,
the longer it lasts the greater the
chances are of its being prolonged
Indefinitely.
This is because, while this SLOW
motion war is going on, on an ex-
tremely narrow land front, Germany
has plenty of time to drill and train
reserves. When the war broke out
Germany was extremely weak in re-
serves, because from 1919 to 1934-l5
years-there was no conscription in
Germany. Fifteen classes
than 100000 men now of military
age-never had any proper military
training.
Experience showed in the last war
that, once continuous front is
established, 1t is impossible to de-
feat an enemy that has suffi-
cheney OF reserves. Repeatedly both
the Germans and the allies broke
through" the others defenses, but
the advance was always stopped by
bringing up reserves. and no decisive
blow was struck until the summer of
1918. when Marshal Foch was able
to rout the Germans because their
reserves were exhausted
The object of warfare is not to
conquer territory, but to destroy the
enemy, and, on a continuous front
Gas opposed to broken front or
one that can be turned by an en-
veloping movemenD, this cannot be
done as long as the enemy has
enough reserves.
1o0-Mile Fighting Front.
II, at the outbreak of the present
war, the western front had extended
from Switzerland to the sea. as in
1914, Germany would in all like
linood have been beaten before now,
because she lacked the necessary re-
serves to man so long a front. AS it
is, the fighting front is only about 100
miles long, since the Rhine is an
effective barrier to any advance
along the Alsatian frontier.
Germany has plenty of men to
man this 100-mile front, and, SO
long as fighting is confined to that
sector, she has leisure to train addi-
tional reserves So far as land forces
are concerned, therefore, the only
factor that might intervene to
shorten the war would be length
ening OF the front, whether by in
cluding Belgium and Luxembourg
in the battle area. or by opening up
new theaters of operations. If the
front should be heightened by 300 or
400 miles, Germany would be obliged
to spread her forces out so thin that
q successful offensive by the allied
armies might become possible.
Apart from the western front
where the allies are certainly not 60
inf to violate Belgium's or Luxem-
bourg's neutrality and where Ger
many would be extremely foolish to
do so, two possible new fronts can be
considered-the Italian and the Bal
kan. Italy is unlikely to take the
initiative of war against Germany
as she did in 1915. It is not impossi-
= BILE. however, that Germany might
for the purpose of getting Trieste as
a Mediterranean submarine base. at
tempt to bring pressure on Italy, in
which case it is more than likely
that italian neutrality would come tc
an end and that Northern Italy
would become battle-ground.
A Balkan front. similarly. might
come about through Germany's need
for access to the grain and oil re-
sources OF Rumania. Germany is at
present cut off from Rumania by
Soviet Russia, but there is another
and more direct access through Hun
gary. The Balkan countries, stiff
ened by Turkeys defensive alliance
with France and England, would in
all likelihood unite to resist a Ger
man incursion, in which case new
front of $50 miles would be opened
up, placing considerable strain on
Germany's manpower.
Blockade Of Reich Effective.
Another factor to be considered
OF course, is the blockade. The at
tempted German U-boat blockade OF
England can be dismissed-tonnage
destruction is actually less rapid
than British shipyard construction
But the Franco-British blockade OF
Germany is 100 per cent effective