Evening star., 1939-04-22
Government 10 Take
Bigger Trade Role
In Case Of War
Standard Statistics Sees
More Rigid Control
If Conflict Comes
Special Dispatch to the Star.

Special Dispatch to the Star.
NEW YORK, April 22.-Whether
or not there will be war no one can
say. Only the dictators can possibly
answer this question. But with Eu-
rope literally an armed camp, with
practically every major European
nation already on partial war basis
and with the situation very similar
to that existing In 1914, no business
man can afford to blind himself to
the possibility Of major embroil-
ment overseas, observes the Stand-
ard Statistics Co. in q comprehen-
sive analysis Of probable price
trends and stimulation Of business
in this country.
It Is not entirely safe to draw
upon the 19l4-19l8 record as the
pattern for the next war experience,
but cut to fit the change in the
times, the application Of the earlier
experience can be a helpful tool in
aiding the businessman through the
possible changes that would come
about under a war economy.
The role which the Government
would occupy in the business picture
In any future war would be much
more important and of far broader
scope than during the World War.
Price Controls Recalled.
Contrary to popular impression at
this time, the Government did not
actually fix prices on important
commodities in 1918. Wheat and
flour were the only staples on which
prices were set. The attempted con-
troll over other prices was through
limitations on profit margins, and
on June 16, 1918, wholesale profit
margins were fixed on q number Of
commodities such as sugar, lard and
lard substitutes, cereals, hams and
bacon and a long list Of canned and
packaged foods.
An anti-profiteering degree was
also issued In 1918 affecting retail
ers' profit margins on q number Of
commodities. Among these were
flour, sugar, canned vegetables, fish,
lard, oatmeal. evaporated milk, rice.
butter and eggs.
Another war measure was the
Food Control Act of 1917 which
granted the President authority to
license persons engaged in the food
industry, and through the Food Ad-
ministration to prescribe conditions
under which food dealers might
operate. BY the end of 1918 there
was a total of 263.737 individuals
M ,,plAr 1trAvcn foef,YdfY, ~
bakers, saltwater fishermen, near
beer manufacturers and dealers in
coffee, sugar and other products.
Put Under License.
All sugar handlers were put un-
der license shortly after the passage
of the Food Act, and by October,
1917. the industry was under Gov
ernment control, with manufacture
ers and jobbers limited to so per
cent of their normal supply. Pur-
chases by the public were restricted
to S to 10 pounds, later reduced to
2 to pounds. Retailers were for
hidden to sell more than 3 pounds
per person per month.
BY agreement with producers, the
beet sugar price was set at $7.25 a
hundredweight, but was subsequent
ly raised to $735, then to $745. Su-
gar rose to its peak level ip the
summer of 1920, 18 months after the
end of the war.
The foregoing, Of course. applies
only to that period during which
the United States was actually en-
gagged in war. Prior to that time,
the rise in commodity prices was
at q much sleeper rate. For all Of
that, the advance was very slow in
getting under way The European
war had been going on for a full
year before there was any positive
upward move in prices. AS a mat
ter of fact, following slight bulge
Immediately after war was declared
in 1914, commodity prices drifted
gradually lower during the remain
der of the year.
The first nine months of 1915
were featured by stable price level.
| BY the end of the summer, how
ever, an upward move started which
gathered sharp momentum in the
final half of 1916 and the first half
of 1917. Because of the various
curbs imposed after the United
States became embroiled. the rise
was checked in the summer Of 1917,
but it was renewed in the spring
of 1918.
Outcome Uncertain.
What of commodity prices during
the next war? That depends upon
the degree to which the United
States participates. Outright price
| fixing is planned by the Government
if we should enter the war, and it Is
a foregone conclusion that prices
for farm products would be set at
levels much higher than those now
prevailing. In line with the policy
of curbing excess war profits, how
ever, 1t is doubtful whether there
would be rise in other commodities
so steep as that during the World
War.
During the World War, farmers in
the United States attained level OF
income never reached before or
since. Gross farm income reached
its peak in 1919, the year following
the Armistice, when the total was
close to $4,000, 100000. This COM
pares with $4,000, 600, 900 in 1929,
and $1,000, 900 900 to 5000, 900 900 in
the years preceding the war.
Because of current large surpluses
in this country, the rise in prices
would probably be much more re-
strained than during the years Of
the World War, when statistical po-
sitions were more favorable. Never
theless, the farmer would be almost
certain to benefit materially from
war, whether or not 1t involved the
United States.
Foreign Trade Increased.
Immediately after war was de-
clared in 1914 there was sharp ex-
pansion in the foreign trade Of the
United States. Exports moved up
rapidly, but some time elapsed before
Sxsav4p%e eh~ ~s%{ u