Evening star., 1939-12-31
Allied Prospects Brighter Than Reichs
Germany Can Hope for Victory in West Only at Price Of
Air Effort Which Will Leave Her Vulnerable If 1t Fois

DbS ~ ~ ObuS
which the trade by which the British
people live may be carried on in
safety, world In which their far
flung empire can be preserved. They
have swept away Germany's sea
commerce, they are for the moment
playing a waiting game of their
own. But they cannot sit quietly
by and permit Germany to overrun
either the Netherlands or the Scan
dinavian Peninsula. Nor can they
allow disturbance Of that cross
roads of the world. the Suez Canal
and its surrounding regions.
They can take the offensive in the
Balkans provided they can bring
in with them certain of the Balkan
powers and have at least the benev-
olent neutrality of Italy. They
can, at greater cost perhaps and
more risk, come to the aid of Scan
dinavia. To aid Holland, they would
probably have to attack through
Belgium or across the Siegfried Line.
Their air effort is bringing their
air force up to something which
will soon approach equality with
Germany, given some French as
sistance, but their responsibilities
are widespread, and produce de-
gree of dispersion both of air and
naval forces which will always be
source of weakness, while Ger
manys power is concentrated.
FRANCE.-The French objective
is security; security for the soil and
the possessions of France and
Frenchmen. security for peaceful
solution of serious economic and
social problems. There appears to
be a growing opinion that this
security can be finally achieved only
by depriving Germany of the power
ever again to disturb it. OF course
there are no final solutions Of this
sort; but that such things are being
talked of indicates that Frenchmen
are taking this war seriously, but
this time they may mean to impose
on Germany a truly Carthaginian
peace.
French military opinion is al
ready remarking upon the weak
nesses of the Siegfried Line; we
cannot rule out the possibility OF a
major attack in the spring. espe-
cially if by that time Germany has
gotten herself involved in the Bal
kans or elsewhere, or internal diff
culties begin to be more apparent
in the Reich. France must join
with Britain to defend the Neither
lands if they are assailed; she might
not seem so directly concerned about
an attack on Scandinavia, but in
the end anything which weakened
Britain would weaken her. A re-
approachment with Italy, relieving
France of Mediterranean and North
African anxieties. seems likely to
be a major objective of French
policy.
Russian Efforts Seem Crushed.
RUSSIA.-It is evident that the
Russian dictator has overplayed his
hand in allowing himself to be
drawn into military operations
against Finland. His successes on
the Mongolian -Manchurian frontier
and his easy overawing of the Bal
tic states apparently led him into
this trap. The Firms refused to be
overaWed; they had 100 recent
memories of the meaning of being
Russian serfs. They preferred to
die on their frontiers. So far. how
ever, it has been Russians mainly
who have died there.
The Russian efforts in the North
appear to have been definitely
crushed, and the approach of win
ter and the bad communications
will probably be a bar to any fur
ther attacks in this sector for the
present. This reduces the Russian
problem to one Of forcing the Man.
nerheim Line by frontal attacks,
since ice in the Gulf of Finland will
now preclude any outflanking land
ing operations. This involves a
race between Finnish resistance
and Russian casualties.
1t is still possible that by using
his best troops regardless of losses,
Stain may break through the Man.
nerheim defenses. but will his peo-
pie and his shaky internal economy
stand the strain? Probably he can
not afford to call it all of and con-
fess defeat: but can he afford the
price of blood which victory will
demand of him? Can he afford
the chance of paying that price,
and then being beaten IN the end,
as we'll he may be? Can he afford
to wait for spring. snarting under
the stigma Of defeat the while, and
then attack reinforced and re-
armed Finland perhaps backed by
all the weight of Scandinavia?
1t is really very serious situa-
ton into which Stains overconfi-
dence, and the mastery dispositions
of Baron Mannerheim backed by
Finnish grit, have gotten the Rus
sian dictator.
Will he turn to the Balkans to
seek an easier conquest? The Ru-
manian Army is not very we'll led,
nor very we'll equipped; but Bull
garia, once counted on to afford
diversion in the south (bribed by
promise of the Dobrudja). will think
twice before she goes to war at the
side of so uncertain an ally, with
the Turks growing at her heels. Or
will Stain now attempt again to
turn his coat and make a deal with
the allies?
1t is always possible, and perhaps
depends on his information as to
the trend Of future German policy.
Being a dictator is an uneasy busi-
ness, especially when it involves