Evening star., 1939-08-29
Of Stars, Men
And Atoms
Notebook Of Science Progress
In Field, Laboratory
And Study
By Thomas r. Henry.

By Thomas r. Henry.
Possibilities Of predicting weather
from week to month in advance will
be considered by some Of the worlds
foremost meteorologists, who will
gather in Warrington at the meeting
Of the International Union of Geod-
esy and deophysics, September 4
to Is.
Reports Of research and experimental
forecasts based on recently developed
techniques already are being received
for presentation at the meeting. The
chief practical hope for longer range
predictions in the near future seems
to rest on refinements Of the so-called
"air mass analysis" developed in
Europe and recently taken up by the
United States Weather Bureau.
There are various possibilities, but
apparently none Of them simple. Meteor
ologists seek for some dominating fac
tor In the weather OF q certain period,
bearing always in mind that its ef-
fects will be modified by numerous COM
plicating factors which must be taken
into consideration in any forecast.
One hitherto unrecognized weather
determinant, by means OF which pre-
dictions as much as a month in ad-
vance may be possible. will be reported
by DR.. Irving P. Krick of the Cali
fornia Institute of Technology. He
has found, he says, that the pattern
OF movement of the great masses of
polar and tropical air across the North
ern Hemisphere tends to follow for six
months at q time the general configura-
ton discernable after the vernal and
autumnal equinoxes-respectively March
81 and September II. Subject to many
complications, he says, the variations
from normal Of these patterns will per-
sist.
He will present before the meteor
ologists charts of the fields of motion
OF air transport for an area over the
Northern Hemisphere extending from
latitude $50 east across the North Pa
cific, North America and the North
Atlantic to latitude S west. Since the
weather is controlled by the various
air streams and their interaction along
surfaces OF separation, he says, 1t seems
logical that in a month exhibiting a
normal flow pattern precipitation and
temperature will remain very close to
the normals for that month, as these
are shown in Genealogical tables COM
piled over many years.
His investigations have indicated, DR..
Krick says, that the deviation of the
controlling air streams in the upper
atmosphere from their normal position
during the month following the autum-
nal equinox persists in a general way
throughout the colder portion of the
year and that the progressive changes
during successive months show propor-
tionate departures from normal. This
same general principle also seems to
apply to the warmer half of the year,
the arrangement Of the controlling air
streams becoming fairly we'll established
during the month following the vernal
equinox and departing from the normal
in similar fashion during succeeding
months.
He has noted, DR.. Krick SAYS, that
when a shift in the position of some
general configuration in the flow pat
tern occurs, all the other controlling
general conf1gurations arrange them
selves In accordance with this move
ment. But, he emphasizes, weather
forecaster cannot simply determine his
dominant spring and autumn patterns
and predict the weather with assurance
for month or even six months in the
future. He must keep a daily watch on
the reports Of changing conditions and
constantly modify his forecasts irr ac-
cordance with them. He must also take
into account various periodicities which
have been found in the atmosphere.
Another report will be presented by
DR.. H. Wexler Of the United States
Weather Bureau on the flow pattern of
air over the Southern United States and
adjacent areas and the normal position
OF various moist, anticyclonic eddies
european meteorologiSts are expected
to present reports on other studies of
normal airflow conhgurations and the
cause Of the departure from them which
are supposedly responsible for the highly
variable weather of the Northern Hemi-
sphere. Out Of the whole may come some
program OF international co-operation
which eventually will result In more
accurate forecasts for all the countries.
AT this meeting there will be pre-
sented before the meteorologists a pro-
posal for extending international CO.
operation in study of the upper air
INTO sub-tropical latitudes-the period
OF the study to coincide with the hur-
ricane season of 1941. New stations
to be proposed for discussion will be
Martinique, Nassau, Havana, or some
other point in Western Cuba, Mexico
| City and Mazatlan. Such a study, it
Is believed, will lead to new knowledge
OF considerable practical forecasting sig
nificance to Central America and to the
| United States.