Evening star., 1939-12-31


the closest to Russia, Is naturally
more worried about the Russians
and at the same time in the position
to give the greatest amount of help
to Finland. All are annoyed at the
pressure Of the British economic
warfare methods; none can desire
to become a battlefield save when
the choice is between that and i'm
mediate submission to q conqueror's
yoke.
CONCLUSIONS. - As the year
closes, the outlook is dark for Ger
many, dark for Russia; If one may
identify the present regimes in those
countries by the national name.
Germany can hope for victory in
the west only at the price Of an at
tack in which her air superiority
will be the chief factor, and which,
If 1t fails, will leave her in sorry case
indeed. The other courses open to
her are all uncertain of result and
charged with perils of their own.
Yet to sit tight-always barring the
of chance that by hook or crook
she can open up really adequate ac-
cess to Russian supply sources
means slow death under the strangu-
lation of tightening blockade.
Russia can win in Finland only at
a price which may mean the de-
struction Of the regime. We can
not eliminate the chance that reali-
zation OF these things may bring
about closer relations between Ger
many and Russia, German aid in
Finland, Russian acceptance OF
German supervision of her economy,
joint action in the Balkans. Nor
can we eliminate the chance that
one of the menaced dictators may
turn on the other, hoping at such
a price to make his peace with the
western world. We must also con-
slider the unpredictable chances Of
internal changes in either country,
bringing about wholly new state
of affairs.
Allied Outlook Brighter.
For the allies, the outlook is
brighter. 1t Is true that we cannot
say with certainty that a full-out
air and sea attack on British sea
communications by Germany would
have no chance of success; nor is
there much assurance that the
Netherlands could be successfully
defended it is not even certain that
Scandinavia could be. Yet on bal
ance, given their open-sea routes,
given the perspective of history in
which the nation commanding the
sea has usually proved victorious,
given Germany's internal difficult
ties, given the success of the eco
nomic pressures on the smaller
states of Europe, it seems that the
allies prospects for the coming year
are not without their rays of sun
shine.
And what are the prospects of
peace? For it is this, perhaps,
which as Americans. interests us
most. They are intangible. |
difficult, indeed. to weigh. 1t would
seem very unlikely that the present
~ ~ AAdAi ASSilAlC Vail DCdCC UIl
the terms the allies demand; but
the present regime has no claim to
political Immortality. 1t would
seem unlikely that the the allies
can make peace on any terms which
Hitler could or would accept; but
II he turns on Russia, weighty sec
tions of allied opinion may change
their views
No one would care to cast him.
self in the role of prophet as to
what turn this strange war may
take; one may perhaps suggest that
after weighing with care every
factor involved. it seems fair guess
that the war will continue through
the summer, perhaps through the
year and into the spring of 1941,
probably involving more countries
and reaching out into new theaters
Of operations as it goes along, and
that its continuance thereafter
seems likely to turn on the factor
of the accomplishment or non-
accomplishment of really satisfac-
tory and effective Russo-German
economic relationships. But hav-
ing said that. one must Immediately
add that even tomorrow morning
something may happen to upset
all these calculations - something
in the Far East, for example, or
something in Rome. or something
in Moscow or Berlin, or even in
London.
Here We can do no more than
set down the military and the mill
tary economic factors which are
involved, attempt as far as possible
to forecast the various courses
which the powers involved may
take, and let the reader select that
conclusion which appears most
likely or most acceptable to himself.
tCopyright. 1889, by N. Y. Tribune, Inc)
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