Evening star., 1939-01-08
What to Do With Surplus
Wheat Puzzles the World
The 1898 Crop Aggravates Serious Problems in
international Trade-45OOOOOO
Bushels Unwanted in Marts
By Blair BoUes.

fields Of wheat, which excited the poet,
will be silently cursed in London Tues
day. There and then . serious discus
sion affecting the economic health Of
the whole globe will open among the
representatives Of the United States and
10 other countries, all. of which are
harassed by the fact that since man
first sowed a field to grain there has
never been SO much wheat as there is
today. The amber waves of 1888 have
given up more than 4,4480O0, 900 bushels.
The gravest aspect Of this problem Of
overproduction is that $50 900 900 bushels
are available for export to importing
countries which want to buy only 5OO,-
600 900 bushels.
Out of the conference of the Inter-
national Wheat Advisory Committee
may come within the next few months
a worldwide wheat agreement based on
the assignment of export quotas to each
nation that sells the grain abroad.
The alternative to such an agreement
is an international trade war climaxed
by dumping on huge scale. All the
earnest words of Secretary Hull In be-
half of free-aowing, unsubsidized trade
would be disregarded by nations fren-
Iedly vieing for all the foreign market
they could get, no matter how they
got it.
In a troubled world where the i'm
minence of war and devastation over
shadows all inferior, contributory woes,
the problem Of wheat has been quietly
gaining in gravity since early last sum-
mer. when the Agriculture Department
estimated that the United States would
produce its biggest crop on record (since
modified to fourth biggest. The threat
OF crisis in the international trading
in this most international of crops was
so great in July that the Wheat Ad-
visory Committee met and agreed to
continue its own existence for another
two years, against the arrival of the
crisis which now is upon the world.
Argentine Has Bumper Crop.
News from Argentina, where the sea-
son now is summer and the harvest is
almost ready, made the wheat men real
ize that the imminent crisis was a fact.
The Argentine is ready to thresh 316,-
100000 bushels, the second largest crop
in its history. In any move for inter-
national harmony in wheat marketing,
Argentina, which took a strong, indi-
vidualistic stand at the recent Pan
American Conference in Peru, is an
uncertain factor. When the worlds
wheat producers agreed to an export
quota in 1888, the system collapsed
within year when Argentina shipped
abroad more than its allotment.
The Wheat Advisory Committee is all
that remains of the 1888 agreement,
which was drawn at the same time
the hapless World Economic Confer
ence was meeting in London. If the
committee members can reach some
sort of general rapport, each will make
recommendation to his own country.
The hoped-for consequence of such
recommendations is the calling of gen.
eral wheat conference that would re-
establish the quota system.
This countrys position will be stated
at the committee meeting by L. v.
Steere, the American agricultural at
tache at the United States Embassy in
Berlin, and some diplomat of at least
ministerial rank. The latter will repre-
sent Ambassador Kennedy, who now is
in the United States on leave from his
duties at the American Embassy in Lon
don. Mr.. Steere, who has been close
to the wheat question since 1893, is
to carry the burden of presenting the
American argument.
Like the wolf who swept down on
the fold, the current wheat crisis took
the world by surprise In that, it diff
fers from the 1888 crisis, which had
been gathering for five years. This
super-fat wheat year follows by only two
harvests a long period of drought, when
there was fair balance between ex-
ports and supplies. But good weather
works its wonders quickly. The fields
that were scorched in 1896 were lush
in 1888.
Pressure on Governments Grows.
The trouble with all agreements, no
matter what good intentions go into
their signing, is that tremendous pres
sure is exerted from within on the
governments of wheat-exporting >coun-
tries to "do something" to expand the
foreign markets and get rid of the sur
plus. Bowling to the stress, all the ex-
porters, the United States included-to
the chagrin of Mr.. Hull and the detri-
ment of his Observation-Disclosures trade
agreement policy-now are doing some
thing" subsidizing foreign sales. The
fact that the world imports of wheat
are estimated this year at 100000
bushels more than last helps the prob
lem little, when there is so much more
wheat available for export
Ironically, the one bright spot-and it
is far from bright-in the wheat picture
comes from the worlds chief sore spot:
The preparations of nations against war.
Countries in the path of Mars are fill
ing their bins. European wheat stocks,
our Agriculture Department estimates,
may be Increased by 100,O00,O0O bushels,
many of which must be bought abroad.
The department comments:
'The building Of reserve stocks appar-
emily is the order Of the day in Europe.
France, Germany, the United Kingdom,
Scandinavia Especially Norway, Poland,
the Danube countries, Italy, Holland
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