Evening star., 1939-01-08
By DEWITT MACKENZIE,

UILft u OuChyTOutU " oU yeuIS
experience in the foreign feld.)
BY DEWITT MACKENZIE,
Associated Press Foreign Affairs Writer.
About a month ago in Greece I
consulted the Delphian oracle which
for more than Is centuries has fore
told the fate of man to those who
took the pains to climb the steep
path to the Temple of Apollo, way
up among the shining rocks" at
the base of Mount Parnassus.
There, with the aid of a bent and
wrinkled Greek, who has spent so
much of his long life digging among
the mysteries of the ruins that he
has become the spirit Of the place,
I learned of the future.
Less Danger Than in 1888.
True. these ideas are not disso-
ciated' from the facts cleaned during
the tour I have just finished through
IA European countries. Still, in
spiration has come from Delphia
and impelled me to offer the fol-
lowing forecast from the foreign
field for 1899:
Foremost in the minds of almost
every one probably is the question
of whether there is danger OF a
European war.
The answer: We have every right
to be optimistic. There is less dam
ger of such a conflict in 1889 than
there was for 1898.
There is possibility of an armed
clash between Russia and Germany,
if and when Hitler tries to take over
control of the Ukraine, and Poland
might easily be involved, but there
is every reason to hope that such
a fight would be localized.
There is no need for it to spread
to the rest of Europe. though Japan
might intervene in the Far East if
she feels she isn't getting enough
exercise from her daily dozen with
China.
Why such a prediction? Because
I am sure from personal investiga-
ton on the ground that no Euro
pean nation, however hard-boiled it
may try to appear, wants war. And
no European country. not even the
strongest, is fully prepared for war.
Exchequers Are Bare.
War scares will come and war
scares will go, but we still will have
with us the vital fact that the ex-
chequers of numerous nations, in
Guiding some of those which have
been beating the drums the hard
est, are as bare as Old Mother Hub
bard's cupboard.
But apart from the other aspects
of the situation. statesmen agree
that policy based on hope and
optimism is sorely needed right now.
One sure way to breed trouble is to
adopt policy of despair.
The wise men tell us that If every
body thinks peace, we shall get
peace. Anyone can be an optimist
when the sun shines, but that's just
when optimism isn't needed.
So the Delphian oracle and your
correspondent are pumping for q
happy new year.
Adolph Hitler bids fair to continue
as the dominant figure in Europe
He may be expected to provide most
of the big sensations-though Mus
sollni may cause a furry with his
expansionist ambitions-and so il
you want to know what the chief
developments will be, just pursuade
Der Fuehrer to tell what's in his
mind.
Will Seek Hold on Ukraine.
Most assuredly he will pursue his
"drang mach osten"-drive to the
east-to extend economic and poll
tical domination of the Reich. An
early step in this already highly
successful crusade is expected to be
an effort to secure hold on the
Russian Ukraine-one of the worlds
richest prizes.
Control of the resources of the
Ukraine, together with what he al
ready has gained in Eastern Europe
and the Balkans since his Czecho-
Slovak coup, would go far toward
making Germany self-sufficient, that
is, independent of most of the rest
of the world for supplies.
This long predicted move might
precipitate the Russian-German wal
mentioned above. Observers gener-
ally believe Hitler WILL as usual, try
to achieve his goal by indirection-
by inspiring the Ukranians to revolt
against Moscow and establish an in
dependent nation over which he
would then assume authority, with.
out causing minority problems fol
himself by actual annexation. Natu.
rally, war between Russia and Ger.
many might grow out of this, anc
Poland would be lucky indeed tt
escape being involved.
Conflict Not Likely to Spread.
There would, of course, always be
danger of such a war spreading, al
the present writing the prospect of II
being confined to Eastern Europe i.
good. The most serious threat of thu
conflict growing might be expected
to lie in the French Russian alliance
for mutual military aid in event o1
"unprovoked" German aggression.
However, I am satisfied from in.
vestigation in Paris that France viii
not make a move unless Hitler is in.
discreet enough to drag her into the
row. If the Nazi chieftain does work
by indirection, or if war should de.
velop from circumstances which
didn't constitute "unprovoked az.
gression" against Russia, it is a safe
bet that France wouldn't feel callec
upon to act. That tip for a bet, By
the way, comes from the racins
stable or, if you prefer. from the
horses mouth"
AS regards revolt by the Ukraine
1t may be said with perfect assurance
that the present French government
would regard it as an internal" Rus.
sian affair in which France had nj
concern. Observers strongly suspec
that Hitler has been told this in re.
sponse to inquiries recently in Paris
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