Evening star., 1939-07-30
By CRESTON b. MULLINS.

BY CKESTON b. MULLINS.
When Francis B. Sayre goes tc
Manila as American High Commits
sioner to the Philippines he will find
himself confronted with a number
of grave problems which must be
solved before the islands shed theil
commonwealth status on July 4, 1916
The Senate yesterday confirmed
the selection of the former Assistant
Secretary of State, who succeeds
Paul v. McNutt, new Federal Sc
curity administrator.
Most fundamental is the ques-
ton, still open, of whether indie
pendence is to be achieved in 1916
or postponed in favor of some closer
relationship with the United States
which will give more time for ad-
justment to political and economic
independence.
Although the issue appeared to
have been settled by the Tydings-
McDuffie Act of 1884, which created
the commonwealth government
President Roosevelt is under strong
pressure to reconsider the question
and perhaps seek prolongation of
the commonwealth.
Involved therein is American
withdrawal from or entrenchment in
the Far East as a whole, for once
American sovereignty over the
Philippines ends, resistance to Japan
in defense of American interests in
China and in fact everywhere in
the Far East is weakened.
That the United States plans no
withdrawal was we'll indicated by
President Roosevelt's abrogation
last week of the 1911 commercial
treaty with Japan, which cleared
the way for an embargo on all ex-
ports to Japan within six months if
Tokio's policy toward American in
terests does not change materially.
Filipinos Not United.
Filipinos themselves are not united
on the matter. A substantial group,
fearful of the effects of severing the
ties which now bind the islands to
the United States, are anxious to
remain under the American flag, at
least until the political turmoil is
calmed and opportunity is had for
economic readjustment.
Former High Commissioner Nc
Mutt returned from the islands
with the very decided opinion that
the United States not only should
reconsider independence legislation
in the interests of the Filipinos
themselves, but in the interest of
world democracy and fulfillment of
Americas obligations as world po-
litical and economic leader
Mr.. McNutt is convinced that if
the United States quits the islands
it will be only matter of time
until they come under menace from
Japan, and that without the Philip
pines the American position in the
Far East will become untenable.
Thus the Philippines, he believes,
are the cornerstone of American
Far East policy.
AS personal representative of the
President, Mr.. Sayre will 60 to the
Philippines with authority to ex-
anime the situation anew and make
recommendations based not only
upon the desires of the Filipinos,
but upon the practical question of
whether the islands economy can
Withstand the shock of amputation,
even if Is years are allowed for re-
adjustment.
Integrated with U. S. Economy.
Achievement of this separation
without great peril, not only to the
Filipinos but to American interests
as well, is made difficult by the fact
that for the last 40 years the islands
have been more and more thor
oughly integrated with American
economy.
While the islanders were being
prepared for political independence
their sugar, coconut oil, cordage,
tobacco, embroidery and pearl but
ton industries were developed on a
basis of free trade with the United
States and their high standard of
living resulted from enjoyment of a
protected market.
Elimination of that preferential
position, which as legislation now
stands will come almost wholly in
1916, threatens to destroy several in
dustries. The sugar industry, for
instance, with its high costs, will be
unable to compete in the world
market with low-cost producers, and
such Philippine commodities as CO.
conut oil, tobacco and cordage will
have competition from the rest OF
the Far East.
The specter of economic collapse
aggravated by the threat of internal
disorder and the latent menace OF
Japan, combine to create doubts
among many Filipinos that they
could survive the blow Of severance
from the United States.
Clear-cut Policy Delayed.
Formulation of a clear-cut, COM
prehensive American policy of eco
nomic readjustment has been de-
layed in Congress and the uncer-
tainty of what will happen after
1946 hampers whatever preparations
the islands might be making toward
cushioning the shock.
The Tydings-McDufie Act pro-
vided for elimination of Philippine
preferences in the American market
beginning with the imposition Of a
per cent export tax in 1941 and
increasing per cent yearly to rs
per cent in 1916, after which full
independence would be achieved
and Philippine exports to the
United States pay the full tariff
duties The United States at the
same time would lose all its prefer
ences in the Philippine market.
Yya f09H -