Evening star., 1939-11-05
Parties Watch War>Supported
Recovery for 1910 Election Fate
Administration Puts Its Strength Behind Sustained
Business to Sweep Democrats Back
Into Public Office
By Ray.n ond P. Brandt.

Since economic conditions and polti- |
cal prospects are always intimately
interviewer, the present war-supported
American recovery raises the question:
In the 1910 elections will the Democratic
party again be the beneficiary of q
change in the business situation as it was
in 1886? Or will it be the victim of q
change, as it was in 1898?
Senators and Representatives on their
return home for their campaigns will
find many differences from month
ago. Even with more than 5000 900 men
and women out Of regular work the
United States now is producing goods
at a greater rate than the average for
the boom year of 1929.
the great threat to mankind, shrewd
Catherine the Great Of Russia aptly
observed that lone year of good crops
will erase the memory of five years Of
political blundering." Applied to modern
industrial times, with wages and jobs
taking the place Of food, the thought
behind the quotation is bolstering the
confidence of many elected office holders
who are hoping the recovery will hold
out at least until election day.
Would Avoid 1888 Spurt.
In administration circles the economic
and political experts are trying to find
ways to avoid repetition of what hap
pened in 1888. From April to October Of
that year employers built up huge in
ventories in an effort to escape the high
costs they thought the National In
dustrial Recovery Act would create. The
physical volume of production increased,
according to the Federal Reserve Board
index, from slightly under 60 to 100,
with the 1923-25 averages taken as 100.
In the later months of that year pro-
duction slumped to almost 10.
Increase in production since June this
year has been almost as sharp as 1t was
in 1888. The Federal Reserve index
reached l25 in December The average
for the boom year Of 1929 was 1l9. .
Governmental, banking and labor
union economists now forecast that
present production will slip from the
estimated peak of 125 to ITO or lis dur
ing the first quarter of 1940 What the
Roosevelt administration does not want
is slump below these figures, and every
effort is being made to level out pro-
duction for sustained recovery pro-
gram. If there Is a slump comparable
to that of the later months of 1888 the
party in power will feel the resentment
Of the voters.
The Roosevelt administration rode
into power on the toboggan slide that
business took from 1929 to 1882. The
business recovery of 1885 and 1896 was
perhaps the greatest factor in the over
whelming victory in 1896. The busi-
ness slump of 1887 and 1898 resulted in
many New Deal congressional defeats
In the primaries and elections last year.
Holds Fate Of Parties.
II business recovery can be sustained
through the first nine months of 1910
the Roosevelt administration will have
q strong bulwark from which to fend
of attacks by Republicans, even though
the national debt is more than $43,00O,.
100000, the annual deficit more than
$3,000,000,000 and more than 100000
persons are unemployed. If there is q
bad slump the Republicans will have
their chance to ride the toboggan into
the White House.
Various governmental agencies have
been alert in seeking means to prevent
q slump. The Federal Reserve Board
at the beginning of the European war
resumed its open market operations to
see that cheap money" prevailed. The
Department of Justice has redoubled its
efforts against conspiracies in the build
Ing trades industries. The Departments
Of State, Treasury and Commerce have
initiated trade programs with South
American countries. The Department
Of Agriculture, while seeking some in
creases in the price Of agricultural prod
ucts, has been on guard against . top
heavy level that might collapse. And
President Roosevelt in many confer
ences, some with the press, warned that
prices must not be allowed to get out
Of hand.
The Republican argument is and viii
be that we are now enjoying only
war prosperity" which viii evaporate
when peace is finally achieved. From
q realistic political standpoint, it will
hardly be an effective contention. The
pocketbook nerve being the most sensi-
tive nerve in politics. the 1,500, 900 persons
who have got jobs since June are not
likely to be impressed by the argument,
nor will the security holders analyze the
reasons for the increased dividends they
are likely to receive during the next IL
months.
Depression Problems Unsolved.
But by the same standards, 1t might be
noted that the New Deal, while having
the political advantage at present, has
not solved the fundamental problems of
the depression. The war has given buxi-
ness and agriculture . shot in the arm
more potent than anything Mr.. Roosevelt
has been able to coneoct during the past