Evening star., 1939-02-24

"a
midterm elec- $## <
tions wins the ~ ~
presi d en- t il al
ele ton two - @
years later"
Like all politi-
cal traditions, there are exceptions.
but the statement is correct since
1890, though there were special cir
cumstanceS in connection with the
mldterm election of 1880 which
slightly impair the uniformity of the
rule. 1t will be recalled that the
Republicans actually won in 1890,
but by the time Congress convened
IN 1881 there was Democratic ma
Jorlty OF five, due to post elections
growing out of deaths of members of
Congress during the intervening 13
months.
So, for all practical purposes, it
Is true that the party that wins the
midterm elections is successful two
years later. 1t is even more sig
nlficant that a party that makes
gains of at least II per cent finds
itself victorious two years later in
the presidential election, but even
this rule did not work in the close
elections of 1916 and 1876.
The important inference that can
be drawn from the figure is that
Congress has been deeply impressed
by the tradition and there is a pc
culiar panicky condition among the
Democrats in Congress that the Re-
publlcans may win in 1910. Try as
they may to overcome this aDpre-
hension the Democrats are unques-
tionably fearful of the outcome in
1910.
Up Against Real Minority.
What makes matters worse from
the Democrats standpoint is that for
the first time in six years they are
up against real minority. This is
by no means a reflection on the
quality of the minority in other
years, but it IS a fact that the Re-
publlcanS with their 169 votes in
the House can exercise greater in
fuence than they have at any time
within the last six years with a rela-
lively small number. The same
thing is true in the Senate, where
the Republican minority counts for
more than it did before.
To understand the Importance of
this, the effectiveness of a minority
is not always measured by numbers,
but by the influence exerted upon
the majority, where there is usually
a notable aWareness of Just what
giving political sustenance to the
minority in winning elections for
them.
In other words, in every instance
where prospective turn in the tide
appears, majority members who are
up for election within two years are
apt to examine the sources and
reasons which gave their opponents
victory at the polls in the preceding
election.
Wavering of Democrats.
This is the main reason why there
Is dissension at the moment in the
Democratic party. 1t might be called
"Wavering' as between points of
view. There are Democrats, for in
stance, who felt sympathetic right
along for the New Deal objectives,
but were critical of the methods.
These Democrats are wondering Just
now whether these objectives can be
saved, lest public opinion become
antagonistic by confusing "objec-
tives" and methods" in a sweeping
reaction. When protests are ac-
cumulated the original objectives of
legislation are often lost sight of in
the melee of reSentments that ensue
over specific grievances in legisla-
ton.
The biggest problem which the
Democrats, therefore, have to face
at the moment is battle to save
their objectives. The Republicans
with quiet strategy and forbearance
are saying very little about obiec-
tives they have in mind and are
merely bombarding the Democratic
position with barrage of criticism
referring to specific items in the
Democratic program of the last six
years.
There is no denying, moreover,
that the Democrats are uneasy about
the way Representative Joseph Mar
tin, Republican leader in the House.
has organized the minority members.
He seems to have persuaded them
that their main chance for victory
lies in cohesion and following a
leader In most every vote this ses-
sion the Republicans have stuck to-
this means something because the
majority will every now and then
swing over enough votes from its
own ranks to give the minority an
actual control of the situation on
particular measures. This has not
happened often at this session, but
1t would not be surprising to see a
coalition of Republicans and indie
! pendent Democrats operating to-
gether on specific questions in which
the administration leaders may be
taking what may be termed the un-
popular side.
Warn Own Members.
The Democratic majority, on the
other hand, has been sending out
warnings to its own members that
they must cease to be political in
dlvlduallsts and must also follow a
leader. Part of the difficulty, of
course, is that there is criticism of
the Presidents method of handling
the members of his own party. The
~ jackson Day speech was regarded
as excellent in harmony terms, but
as failing to DrOyide a formula ~
close cooperation between the
White House and the Democrats in
Congress.
The so-called conservative Demo.
Gratis are pointing to the series Of
appointments made by the Presi.
don't &c q sipn he dnec not mao