The Waterbury Democrat., 1939-06-30
BUSINESS LAGS FIRST HALF 3S;
 ADVANCE SEEN
Full Year l030 Expected to Show National Inc
 come Gain
By MAX L. BROWN United Press Financial Writer)

New York, June 30-(UP)-In- dustrial activity in the first six months of 1939 ran some g per cent ahead of the depressed rate of the corresponding 1888 period, but slumped about 10 per cent from the pace established in the closing months of last year.
 Prospects for improvement in the final half of this year were regarded as bright, however, and business and financial authorities agreed the year 1899 will go into the record books as better from the industrial standpoint that 1888, although below 1887.
 Hope for extension of the recov- cry movement which developed sev- eral weeks ago largely was predi- cated upon lessening of war tension, the administrators tax appease- ment program, and a mildly im- provedlabor situation. Those factors in their adverse state all played a major role in the slump which marked the initial half of the year. In addition, the healthy state of in- ventories and the fact that Congress soon will adjourn were counted upon to benefit the general business sit- uation.
 Business hopes for some move- ment toward balancing the federal budget were shattered by Congress sional developments, but the adverse influence of that item was offset by the inflationary implications behind new broad spending-lending pro- gram being prepared by the admin istration for tlfis fall.
 National Income Gain
 National income, while below the late 1888 rate, topped the first six months of last year by some 10 per cent. A much slower rate of gain was expected in the final half, how ever, and prospects were that the aggregate for the full year would show some to 10 per cent over all of 1888 and reasonably near the 1887 total.
 Secretary of Commerce Harry Hopkins estimated that 1889 income would fall somewhere between $68,- 000,000,000 and $70,000, 100000. That would compare with $64,00, ,000, ,0O0 for 1888 and $69, ,00O ,000, ,000 for 1887.
 Virtually all major lines of bus mess activity made strong showings compared with the first half of last year, but very few were able to equal the results attained in the broad upsweep that marked the final half of 1888.
 Building Best Since 1881
 The Federal Reserve board pro- duction index adjusted (l923-25 equals 10O slipped from l04 to 101 in the opening month this year and declined progressively until the 92 mark was reached in April. The May figure showed little improve ment but a rise of around points was recorded in June. In the 1888 period the January index was 80, the May low 76 and the June figure 77. The index opened at IA in 1887, reached an initial half high of 118 in March and stood at IA in June of that year.
 Steel production scared 73 per cent over the 1888 period to ap- proximately 16,680000 tons from 10,789, ,000 tons in the initial half last year. Operations for the six months of 1889 were around 529 per cent of capacity against 31.1 per cent in the 1888 period. The sharp rise was undermined as far as its benefits to the industry were concerned, how ever, by an unsettled price situa- tion which forced the break-eyen point up to between the 50 and 55 per cent level.
 Automobile Output Up 53eo
 Automobile output jumped some 53 per cent over the first half of 1888 to some 100000 cars and trucks from 1,3O6,051. Sporadic labor difficulties were offset in large part by strong sales situation which cut inventories of both new and used cars.
 Car loadings recorded . 7.9 per cent gain, with the six months total estimated at 15,356,000 units com pared with 14,231 ,000 year earlier Extent of the gain was held down by the spring bituminous coal strike which adversely affected many branches of industry.
 Electricity production held fairly well with the closing months of 1885 and set up gain of some 10 pel cent over the 1888 period to react a level about equal with the initia half of 1887. It was estimated that production for the first six month! this year would reach some 58,000,. 000,00 kilowatt hours compared witt 1 53, ,194, 100000 a year earlier ant 57, ,718, ,000,0 in the 1887 period.
 Chains Feature Retail Sales
 Retail trade was featured by chail store sales. Several of the nation major outlets reported the best vol ume in their history for the period It was estimated that total retai trade for the first six mnoths thi a gain of 4 per cent over the 193 year would raech some ST, 900. 900 ,00 period total of ST, 7,200 ,000, ,OO0. Gen eral merchandise sales were expect ed to approximate $2,300,000,0 ,0o0 fo the first half compared with $2,200, 100000 last year, gain of pc cent.
 AS the half-year closed brightes prospects again were for the con sumers' goods industries. partly be ! -e