Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1939-11-07

party, can wait
till the Demo-
cratic plans are David Lawrence
presented and then can let loose
their barrage of criticism or
counterattack. Heretofore, the ad-
ministration has not been content
to stay on the defensaye. but has
believed that the best defense is a
strong offense. viii those tactics
be continued?
The dilemma facing the Presi-
dent as leader of his party is COM
pick one irrespective of whether he
is going to be candidate for a
third term. The broad strategy has
to be worked out no matter who
the nominee may be, for, to large
extent, it is on the Roosevelt rec
ord that both New Deal and anti
New Deal would-be candidates will
have to stand after the national
convention has intrusted the party
standard to the nominee.
Up to now, the chief Republican
argument has been that New Deal
experimentation knocked the con-
fidence of the business world into
a cooked hat and that business re-
covery has been an irregular curve,
going up with the increase OF
pump printing" and going down
when the financial hypodermics had
exhausted their stimulus. But what
shall be said of the recovery move
ment which set in as early as last
May and was running at high speed
when the European war broke out
the first of September? Can it be
said that the present recovery move
ment is artificial because it is de-
rived from war purchases? I'm
doubtedly, the contention will be
offered that America was being
given large orders even before war
broke out, but the total increase in
exports during the summer months
could hardly account for the wide
movement of business.
Temporary Effects.
It might be contended by the
administrations opponents that
pump printing sent the business
curve upward last summer because
it so happens that Federal expendi-
lures during the current fiscal year
exceed all peacetime records. Plain
ly, when the Federal Government
is disbursing huge sums, the effects
are felt Immediately, though tenn
porarily.
If it be accepted that the antici-
patton of war or the pump prim-
ing or the war orders since last
September has been responsible for
the rise in business, then the ad-
ministration, too. will have to accept
one of these reasons as the basis
for future planning. Certainly, ar
tiflcial prosperity challenges this or
any other administration to plan a
substitute when stimulants have
spent their way. Will the program
be "lending-spending" or more Of
the direct "pump-priming" or
curtailment of Federal expenses in
anticipation of higher tax receipts?
Must Give Budget Message.
The President, to be sure, must
have his budget message ready the
first week in January He must
forecast receipts and expenses for
the fiscal year beginning July l.,
1910. Whether he is to be in Office
again or not. the President who
nears the end of his elected term
must look ahead, and, together with
Congress, plan the expenses for the
administration of his successor for
at least six months of the new presi-
dental term. If he knew that the
man following him was to be of
the opposite party, the incumbent
could, of course, present drastical-
ly curtailed budget and leave his
successor with the job of carrying
1t out. But there is always the
chance that the next President may
be Of the same political party as
the present executive and that
would mean embarrassment for the
new leader.
But, apart from these pitfalls and
tangles, there is the broad question
OF what legislative program to offer
"a radical or a conservative or a
middle of -the-road set of recon-
mendations.
Confidence Apparent.
Business has been complaining
that it could not 60 ahead because
it lacked confidence in the admin
istration. The latter now will answer
that business has gone ahead and
apparently has confidence even
though no important changes in
New Deal laws have been made. To
this, opponents of the President will
argue that the prosperity is tenn
porary, derived from war, and that
permanent prosperity cannot come
unless the New Deal laws are further
revised.
If the administration itself comes
forward with constructive sugges-
tons for change, as, for instance, in
the labor laws or the tax laws, this
might take a good deal of wind out
of the political sails of its opponents.
Nobody knows at present which
tack the President will take, but in
the next six weeks, while the Re-
publicans are away and Congress is
on vacation, the administration
has tough job of selecting the
strategy for 1910, and no small part
OF it must include the vital factor
OF who Is going to be the man to
lead the Democratic party in the
quadrennial battle before the people
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