Evening star., 1939-08-06

debts incurred by the Chinese govern
ment in Britain and all the British in
vestments in China-almost 81 600, 900 900
would be honored by the japanese. In
the event, however, that Britain should
decide on an aggressive economic atti-
tude, all these investments of the British
widows and orphans"-the pet express
sion of the British bankers-would be
wiped out in "a hours.
But should the power of public opinion
in Britain decide that these investments
should be sacrificed temporarily and
should Britain follow President Roose-
velts policy of hitting Japan in the eco
nomic field where she is most vulnerable,
two courses are believed here to be open
to the japanese government.
The first one would be a victory for
the moderate civil government. There
might be realization on the part of the
japanese people that they cannot con-
tinue their present policies on the Asiatic
mainland and that their affiliation with
the European powers of the Axis cannot
do them much immediate good.
Would Discredit Military.
In such an eventuality, the policies Of
the Toxic military clique would be dis
credited and one might look forward to
radical change In Japans attitude to-
ward China and the Western Powers.
This would require tremendous up
heaval in the attitude of the japanese
people themselves and is problematical
in view of the fact that Japan is now a
nation under arms. Only the fullest
comprehension on the part of the En-
peror of what might happen to the Land
of the Rising Sun could bring about such
a revolution in Japan's foreign policies.
The other result of the denunciation of
the treaty Of commerce may be
strengthening of the hands of the mill
tary. 1t is quite possible that the real
fzation on the part of the army and navy
leaders that Japan must hurry up and
assure herself of an adequate supply Of
raw materials for the prosecution of war
may lead her to greater adventures
South Of Japan there are the rich Dutch
East Indies possessions-Java, Sumatra,
South Borneo and numberless other
Malay Islands. These all have the basic
raw materials Japan needs: Oil, tung-
stem, aluminium, rubber etc. They are
inadequately defended by the Neither
lands navy which cannot possibly offer
any serious resistance to the japanese.
For the time being, the imperial army
has brought to the realm all the new
possessions in China. The role of the
navy has been Insignificant The sailors
of Japan are anxious to show that the
navy can do for the empire as much II
not more than the army has done The
Dutch possessions, with Britain still in
volved in Europe and the United States
still strongly isolationist and 1000 miles
away from Japan, are at the mercy of
the Japanese fleet. With minimum of
loss, these possessions could be conquered,
supported by relatively small number
OF troops. In fact, these troops-5O 900
in all-are stationed at present in For
mosa ready to embark at the first order
from the Toxic government
Washington Weighs Chance.
This possibility has been taken into
consideration by the Washington admin
istration. The Presidents advisers be-
lieve that if Germany and Italy can be
influenced by the new attitude of the
United States toward Japan and the So
called August crisis" can be delayed, the
japanese Navy will not venture to at
tack the Netherlands Asiatic possessions.
1t will then have to take into account
the possibilities of British Intervention
with disastrous effect for the Japanese
Navy.
! If, on the other hand, the connections
Of the axis remain intact and its Euro
| pean end is determined to assist its
Asiatic appendix, the probabilities are
that we will witness japanese attack
against the Malay Islands. The slogan
of the japanese military that they want
to make Japan an empire economically
independent of the outside world is likely
to find response from the people of
the islands who will decide to make
further sacrifices to realize what few
years ago was All unobtainable dream.
The axis, like Great Britain and
France, follows its own selfish interests.
They are not likely to sacrifice anything
| for the sake of their associates. Fur
thermore, the Germans and the Italians,
while driven by necessity to join Japan
to their efforts for a resettlement of the
world, are none too happy about Japan's
ruling supreme in Asia. The Germans
in particular have important economic
interests in China. Although after the
last war they were driven out of China
by their former foes, they did stage q
spectacular comeback. and until Japan
took matters into her own hands, Ger
many's Oriental commerce was thriving.
The Germans, despite the political un-
derstanding between Berlin and Toxic,
have been just as hard hit in their COM
mercial endeavors in China as the Brit
ish, the Americans and the French.
President Roosevelt threw stone into
the stormy waters of Asia and Europe
last week. Whether its effect will be to
calm those waters or to precipitate q
hurricane will be determined within the
next few weeks.