Evening star., 1939-10-03

an export trade of 81 ,261 900 900 can
60 abroad without risk of seizure.
This means that IS per cent of
Americas trade with Europe is now
hanging in the balance and will be
impaired by the war to as great an
extent as the British and German
Navies, respectively, can apply their
so-called "contraband" lists.
The United States has in the past
protested when belligerents classi-
fled contraband too broadly, but in
the present spirit of Congress, which
is to narrow neutral rights and give
free rein to belligerent navies, the
tendency is not to protest.
Thus, while the neutrality debate
is very interesting and much will be
said about keeping America out of
war or dragging her in, the truth
is the unemployment relief rolls will
tend to grow and the losses to
American business will increase in
accordance as America ignores her
own trade.
Involves Great Expense.
The present sentiment of the
country is to shut off supplies from
the belligerents if it may mean in
volvement in war. That is an under
standable policy, of course, but it is
going to involve an expense far
greater than is generally realized.
The Roosevelt administration will
have the best alibi ever given it in
six years when it comes to talking
of balanced budget. For it will be
easy to point to the declining figures
of American trade and insist that
only by more w. P. A. and more
P. w. A. can the difference be met
Likewise, 1t would not be surpris-
ing to see a recommendation for
drastic tax increases. The fact that
; Great Britain is taxing around IS
per cent for low as we'll as high in
comes is being taken into considera-
ton as likely to induce more CO.
operation hereafter from the tax
payer, especially when America is
not being asked at the same time to
sacrifice human lives.
Even if the embargo is repealed,
the impact on American trade is
bound to be severe until such time
as the supremacy of the British
Navy is assured. If the British Navy
is in process of being defeated, the
American trade will be paralyzed
though, to be sure, the commerce
with South America will continue
as heretofore.
Will Prevent Rise in Exports.
But to put into jeopardy more
than $1,000,000,000 worth Of trade
to Europe alone is something
America has not experienced since
1914, and though war orders have
been expected to make up the diff
ference, it will be evident in a few
months that the cash-and-
plan and other restrictions being
imposed now will prevent the rapid
rise in exports which America ex-
perienced after the first seven
months of disruption of trade begin
ming in August, 1914.
1t is not generally realized that
the United States in December, 1914,
sent one of the Severest protests to
the British that American diplomacy
records. Interference with Ameri-
can shipping to neutral countries
was so extensive that serious rift
in British-American relations might
have resulted if it had not been for
the greater transgression which
arose out of the attack without
warning by German submarines on
American ships and American citi-
Zens.
The United States was in the
midst OF severe slump in trade in
the first seven months of the war
and German submarines were not
as active then as they are today.
With the tendency to squelch war
trade and the tendency also to re-
main indifferent to Interruptions of
ordinary trade, the United States
is bound to suffer economic reverses
unless the seas are cleared for trade.
British News Is Hopeful.
Announcement by the British ad-
miralty that vessels conveyed have
not been successfully attacked for
a week Is more important news to
the American farmer, the American
producer and the American manu.
facturer than how the tide goes In
the United States Senate on the
subject of neutrality revision. For
as IN 1915 and 1916, the prosperity
of the United States is interviewer
with the effectiveness of the British
Navy against German submarines.
Within few weeks after the pres
ent neutrality issue has been laid
aside. the question of the effect of
the war on Americas economic situ-
alton Is likely to be of much more
concern to the American people
than the battles on the western
front. Eventual prosperity, based
on revision of the neutrality law to
allow sales of airplanes and arms to
the allies, has raised manv hones