Evening star., 1939-12-31
Dominates
Trade Prospects
Al End Of 1899
Speore Predicts Huge
Debts Will Bring
Trouble Later
By CHARLES F. SPEARE.

again dominate, as did the pcss1-
oIIIty OF war through the greater
parE Of 1888 and 1888
Whether or not It's effects On this
country VIII De 20 produce greater
Industrial activity, and SO more EN-
pioymen-, ouf at the SAME t1ne q
higher cost of living and 4 degree
OF iuaatlc thai may oe harmful TO
the middle classes. it Is yet GOO early
co determine
OF equal importance are the con-
sequences Of the war On our policy
in Europe and the Far East, and
IN South America and on the No
ueuher elections II this country.
The var eu5angIss itself with nearly
every industrial, financial, agricul-
turaI- social and political problem
cnc1inz before the American people
for consideration and soII-ion-
The United States WAS in scue
ways better prepared 60 meet The
shock Of war. wien 1t vas declared
last September. than would have
been the case a year earlier. for Il
found the Country recovering from
The depression Of the last quarter
Of 1887 and Of 1888 THIS better
nerE IN business had crCe aooUI
with moderate AMOUNT Of pump
printing" in contrast 10 the propUI-
zion given two years previously
Pickup Evident IN July
As early as July, the heavy t1dus-
tries began 70 show pickup and The
railroads 20 report Increased car
InadHzs, and. although expecta 1ion
Of var did Lead TO anticipated buy
ing Of merchandise and ccEuodI-
ties IN August, the corporation re-
suits for the September quarter
were based primarily On tie de-
uands Of peacetIne rather than
these Of var And when the h1-s1-
ness index continued TO rise II Oc1c-
Ter and November. reaching IN the
latter month about the equivalent
Ct tie highest figure flcSf II 1873.
evidence Vas 20 The effect that It
depended ct1teAv co domestic cnn-
sumption for It's mouer-l1m and
that, IN fact. considerable cisaC-
pcinsnens was being felt over the
restrained hUvtnz Of var materials
he-s dT Great Britain and France
Tie current psychology Of the
business world contrasts with that
IN the early months Of the great var
h emphasizing The necessity for
prics x-ahIIlzaGlcr and The checking
Of var boom. The Iesscrs from
the poss-var trfaticr N The 1905,
not fully recognized Until after 1873
are bearing fruit n cautious spirit
regarding promotion Of var en1er-
prlses.
Followed IN Europe.
This IS also the policy being pU--
sued ty England and France and
their dependencies, N Et1ic1 heavy
taxation IS imposed On their s1h-
IecCs 60 cover var expenditures,
whereas the greater portion Of such
ou1lays was provided previously oy
Borrowing. This country Huss
sooner or later face the SAME
method Z it is to keep tss DEBT
from reaching e11ravagart figures
under the increasing demands Of
score Of expanding federal depart
uen1s and e11raortlary e1perd1-
sUres fer defense It nusa, At the
same rine, cut expenses
Whether the war IS Of brief or
extended duration. T1s seruel. IN this
writer's opninn. VIII oe 4 credit COL
lapse IN the helhzerenE countries
from whose effects acne Of the reu-
Erals can escape.
NdLe there has been progress
Since 1920 which translates into more
concentrated wealth. higher degree
Of Industrial efficiency. much scien-
tIlc progress, better heaIIh and
mere hIeracy, the demands for So
cLaI security that have gruwu I'd
meanwhile and the universal re-
Armament activity have created ua-
tlonaI debts far greater than those
In existence at the end Of 1919 and
which Cannot De sustained. They are
burden that VIII crush the s1rurG-
est nation and SO cannot De con-
tinued-
M10Sf9Le DSGtIne seem
The composite opiuion of ecunc-
EisIs in Government servise and
privately placed Is that there MAY
De decline IN The business index
some time IN the first half Of the
year from the November December
level Of around LIS to 119. This
wuuId not be serious. 1t would ap-
proy1ma5e the reaction last spring, /
from which there vas an assEcnisf1- |
ing recovery
Labor Is fairly well employed. |
There is shortage Of skilled ME
chanics, which viii increase. The
decline IN unemployment from IL
3sa gGG IN May, 1888, to about |
5000 coo this year, which has re-
ducet the numbers On relief by
1,9G1, ,G9G, VIII insure q substantial
power for . section of
the people who had . lowered ca
pacity to huy during at least half OF
1888 and during much Of 1s3a.
The rising prices Of farm products
in the last quarter OF this year, Is
in wheat and cotton, supplements
this ahilTy to purchase Necessities
as we'll zs nnn-essenIiaIs The latter
effects Of the severe drought have
yet to be reaIi1ed
Additional force is given to the
momentum of consumption by the
distribution Of the profits of cor
poratinns and other money makers.
These Will total about $4,000 ,1GG. .0G0,
or 10 per cent more than IN 1888.
Fortunately. there has been cpm-
paratIveIy little advance In the cost
of living. 80 earnings of Wage earn-
ers. on the basis Of commodity prices
are estimated at the highest IN hiS-
tory
AL these factors support the cnn-
elzsinn thzt the year 1916, On the
(8ee aRKARN, P1ss D-O