Evening star., 1939-07-16
Calmer Surveys Find Axis War
Power Too Weak for Victory
Recent Appraisals See Dctators Cracking Under
Drawn.Out Contest and Paralyzing,
Sudden Blow Doomed to Failure
By Ernest Kirschfen.

The capitulation of Chamberlain and
Daladier to Hitler at Munich last Sep
tember, coming as it did after three
years of excursions and alarms, from
remilitarization of the Rhineland to
German anschluss with Austria, seemed
to convince Americans that Germany
once more had mighty military ma
chine on the march, an army even
more powerful than the one that defiled
through AK la Chapelle and rolled
over the Notifications of Liege in Au-
gust, 1914
Now, 10 months after Munich, fear
of the axis powers seems to be sub
siding. Calmer minds are writing the
magazine articles. With only an occa-
slonal dissenting voice like that of
Lloyd George, we are being told with
statistics to buttress the argument, that
the Third Reich could not possibly win
war against France and England, even
If they were without the support of
concert of Eastern European and DAN
ubian countries
Germany's only real chance would be
q paralyzing surprise attack-a multi
lateral blow SO sudden and so destruc-
tive that it would shatter the military
and industrial nerve centers of the
democracieS overnight; and that is
out of the question, according to such
men as Wilson Woodside former Uni
verslty of Toronto economist. writing
In the current issue of Harper's Maga-
zine, and Maj. George Fielding Eliot,
in I,1o
Mercury. Germany, these writer's say,
does not have the men, the guns, the
planes or the ships for this much
publicized "undeclared war"
Danger to U. S. Discounted.
AS for any danger to the United
States, that has been brushed aside in
the recent magazine articles by Oswald
Garrison Willard c. Hartley Grattan
Hanson Baldwin, military expert of
the New York Times, and others.
That the Nazis are preparing for
quick war" is demonstrated by their
concentration of effort on planes, tanks
and submarines rather than on the
men on the ground and the ships on
the sea, Woodside points out; and Eliot
agrees with him.
The German plan obviously calls for
lightning air raids on the British and
French naval bases and flying fields,
and for a clincher, swift, motorized
attack on France.
Il is a nice plan-on paper. For a
time it caused considerable uneaSiness
in London and Paris. Now, however
the defeatist attitude in the allied war
Offices has passed. Air defense prepara-
tions have been intensified. Cities are
we'll protected Ships have been
equipped with heavier armor. The fleets
have ever-increasing compliments of
airplanes.
AS for the submarine, defense against
1t was so far perfected even in the last
days of the World War that, instead of
being dreaded hunters, the U-boat had
become the hunted.
Planes Vital in Quick War.
In the quick war; as conceived by
the italian, Douhet, everything would
depend on the knockout blow that would
signal its beginning. This makes the
plane of primary importance. Give me
10000 planes and I will be master of
Europe" said Field Marshal Goering,
Hltler's war lord. However, the Nazis
never claimed to have an air force of
more than 10000 planes. The Basel Ma
tlonal Zeitung reports that, when Hit
Ter read IN an American magazine that
the Germans had 10000 airplanes and
were manufacturing 1000 a month, he
exclaimed:
What nonsense! But let them be-
lieve it,
Woodside believes the Nazis actually
had between $500 and 1000 planes at
the time OF the Czech crisis Eliot gives
them 4,OOO IN operating squadrons and
another 1000 in reserve. He gives the
Nazis 2-to-1 advantage over the Eng
lish and French, but Woodside declares
that the combined German and Italian
air fleets have only 3-to-2 advantage.
These two writer's also disagree on the
replacement capacity of the two forces.
Eliot gives the advantage to the Nazis.
but admits that the Germans are inst
about at the limit of their production
while the allies, as Woodside points out
once again might build 5000 planes q
month, as they did during the waning
months of the last war
Not Sufficient for Domination.
Since the Germans are not telling
there is no way of ascertaining their real
air strength. However, 1t is agreed that
on the basis of either of these estimates
1t is not sufficient to dominate the skies
the first requirement for the success
Of the Douhet plan.
The Douhet theory was tried in the
Spanish War laboratory with complete
lack of success. In mid-March of last
year Barcelona was subjected to three
days of savage and intensive aerial bonn
bardment Herbert Matthews of the
New York Times reported that 1900
persons were killed in the refugee-packed
city, but street cars and motion-pic
theaters continued to operate The
bombs failed to produce submission