Evening star., 1939-04-14
Figures
What They Mean
BY the Associated Press,

By the Associated Press.
NEW YORK, April 14-War or
no war, there are some prognosti-
Gators in Wall Street who think the
stock market. from long-range
view, carries the sign Of Taurus, the
bull
The plunge in share prices since
mid-March has wiped out about so
per cent of the gains scored in the
upswing from April to July last
year. Prior to that upturn, there
had been a well-def1ned bear trend
running from March, 1887, through
March, 1888.
So fast have prices come down,
some analysts lost faith in their pre-
vious assumptions that the 1888
recovery marked the first phase of
a long-range climb. On the con-
trary, they espoused the view the
rise last year merely was an inter-
ruption of long bear movement.
Adolf Hitler's coup in Czecho-
Slovakia a month ago. they held,
gave the nudge to market which
was looking for an excuse to resume
: its descent after temporary re-
bound.
This week the market has been
making efforts to intrench for a
turnaround it appears, and certain
analysts who have not lost faith
in the bull side are seeking to refute
the view the slide marked out a
bearish pattern for the future.
In the battle of words among
these market theorists, Hitler takes
a back seat. Der Fuehrer may be d
. man of destiny, able to hold mar
kets as we'll as nations in awe, but
technicians who consult charts dope
the swings in terms of action and re-
action on the assumption these will
run normal course regardless of
outside events.
The average stock market letter is
written from day-to-day interpre-
tation of news in an effort to ap-
praise the meaning for speculative
values. What coup Hitler may be
planning next becomes a paramount
= question for the hit-and-run mar
ket seers, With eyes on the foreign
news, they lean to a bearish view
now.
Occasionally, however, the long
range Wall Street philosophers re-
tire into sanctum, study the chart
lines running back years and emerge
with discourse on the future
which ignores Hitler and Musso-
lini.
From historical perspective. they
take it the market loses SO per cent
, or more of its rise after the first
big advance marking the start of a
new bull movement before it sets
out on another rise.
At this stage in the markets ca
reer, with headlines screaming the
menace of war, some are bold enough
to predict history will repeat and
say the market merely is undergoing
correction" of the 1888 advance.
Long Record Cited.
One exponent of historical prob
abilities contends 60 years of mar
ket history shows stocks usually
lose go to IS per cent of ar advance
marking new bull movement be-
fore another swing upward gets
going.
According to his view, the market
In the last month essentially has
been repeating history in its basic
pattern of action and reaction,
rather than adjusting itself to the
possibility of war and more drives
for conquest by Hitler and Musso-
lini
For the historically minded, the
chart of past bull movements in
stocks-rather than Hitler's "Mein
Kampf"-is the guide to the mar
ket future.
Many Wall Streeters, recognizing
far-reaching.change has been going
on in the world, smile at arguments
\ based solely on history. Neutral OBJ
yservers are waiting for the market
TO tell its own story since it has
reached a level where it might well
soon vindicate or defy the so years
of precedent cited by those who be-
lieve history repeats.