The Waterbury Democrat., 1939-01-10

This was passed even at time when relations between the two countries were none too friendly. Whether more wheat is shipped to Spain will depend upon future Spanish needs and also upon the outcome of the present Franco drive. Administration leaders argue that sending wheat to Spain helps get rid of the American surplus, at the same time reliev- ing acute human suffering.
 NOTE-All last summer German and Italian ships in Spanish ports were loading, wheat comman- deered by Insurgent forces and sure to be needed by local popu- lations this winter.
 GARNER'S "HOG-WASH"
 Newsmen tried to get a rise out of Secretary Wallace by telling him that Garner had called the AAA "a lot of hog-wash". Re- straining himself, Wallace said: 'When the press quotes one man to me, I don't rise to the bait. It has taken me five years to learn that.
 Pressed further, however, he de- livered himself of this master1y straddle: Its a shame not to de- nounce a lie, but I have no com- ment.
 BUSINESS OUTLOOK
 When Roosevelt decided on $875 ,000, 900 as his deficiency relief budget, he had before him a con- fidential economic study which, while generally bullish, warned that there would be little improve ment in the unemployment prob- lem during 1889.
 Continued unemployment was attributed to two factors = tech- nological developments in indus try which are steadily wiping out jobs, and the annual influx" at around 100000 a year. Since 1887, the last prosperous year, when there were 7,500,000 jobless, over 1,000.- GOO new workers of all categories have entered the labor market.
 This means that even if 1889 turns out to be as good as 1887, the jobless army still will num- Der eight to nine million.
 It was this factor which de- termined Roosevelt not to hold down relief expenditures. His or- iginal plan, when he started working on the budget last fan, was to recommend a $500, 0,000, ,000 deficiency appropriation. But after examining the business survey, he decided that this figure was too low, and increased it to $875,000,- 900.
 Prepared by the same experts who predicted the 1897 slump, the survey charted the following busi- ness outlook for 1939:
 First quarter sluggish; no slump but also no upturn.
 Second quarter, 8 rapid rise in the index of industrial pro- duction to a level of 120-125 by July 1. (It took more than awice as long to attain a comparable upturn during the 1935-37 boom.)
 A "very vigorous" third quar- ter with the last three months equalling or topping peak con- ditions in 1897.
 The only pessimistic note sound- ed by the experts was the pos sibility of war in Europe. Should that occur they foresaw & pro- I1ounced unsettling effect on American business.
 In detail, the experts foresaw for the year 1889:
 A total auto output of 3,700,- 900 cars as compared to g. 100000 for 1888.
 A spectacular increase in steel production, due to the national
 defense program.
 The most building construction since 1930.
 Marked improvement in farm prices.
 Extensive activity in capital goods industry due to expansion of utilities. purchase of railroad equipment and increased avia- tion output.
 A total national income of between $70 and SIS billion as compared to around $62 billion for 1888.
 CAPITOL CHAFF
 When Frank Murphy was of- fered the attorney generalship he told the President he would &C., cept it only on condition it was