Evening star., 1939-12-03

The author OF this article has been
since 1926 an economist on the staff
OF the United States Department of
Agriculture, specializing in Russian
economies. Much OF the material for
the article Das obtained form Russian,
German and British publications.
The conclusion of a recent Russo
British agreement for exchange of GER
tain commodities was greeted as an
event that may be an acorn from which
great oak will grow" 1t could be said
with equal justice, using the same simle,
that an oak has been growing up for
many years unnoticed and is now quite a
tree, although its future growth is I'M
certain. There are good reasons to con-
tend that the recent agreement is not a
politico-economic accident but rather
symptomatic of the working of more
fundamental economic forces The situ-
alton is, of course, particularly significant
In view of the Russo German rapproche-
ment.
1t has been most persistently claimed
since that fateful first visit of Herr Won
Ribbentrop to Moscow that the rap
Berlin was rendezvous not only with
political but also with economic destiny.
The economies of the two countries, it
is said. are Complementary; the U. S. S.
R. is a reservoir of industrial raw ma
terials and foodstuffs that industrial Ger
many needs. whereas Germany, in turn,
can supply machinery and technical aid
ir6 ri O 1joot of be
S. S. R. Moreover, Germans know Rus
sia and how to deal with Russians from
long historical experience, and, any
way, had not the whole thing been tested
out in the decade between treaty of
Rapallo and the advent of Hitler? Thus,
1t is argued, the underlying economic
realities inexorably drive the two coun-
tries closer together whatever the ideo-
logical differences of their rulers
Qualifying Footnotes.
Many qualifying footnotes to this
thesis of natural Russo-German eco
nomic affinity could be written; its eco
nomic determinism could be criticized;
its disregard of the obstacles that pro-
tectionism in both countries had histori-
cally placed in the path of smooth COM
mercial relations could be pointed out.
The chief demerit of the doctrine is that
It entirely obscures the economic i'm
portance of countries other than Ger
many in Russian foreign commerce.
Among such countries England occupies
an outstanding place.
To demonstrate this it is not necessary
to delve too far into the past and dwell
on the commercial discovery of Mus
covy by the merchants of Elizabethan
England: nor on the role which English
machinery, technicians and capital
played in the industrial revolution in
imperial Russia, particularly in the
building up of the important Russian
textile industry; nor on the fact that
England was the first important country
to conclude comprehensive trade agree
ment with Bolshevik Russia on March
16, 1921, anticipating even the famous
Rappalo agreement with Germany in
1922. 1t is only necessary to examine
Russian foreign trade statistics.
These show that before the first World
War Germany predominated in Russian
export trade. Her share in fact was even
larger than the figures indicate, since
some of the Russian exports officially
consigned to Holland were actually des-
tined for Germany and merely shipped
through Rotterdam. England in those
years held second place, but she was by
no means a poor second, taking a fifth,
as compared with Germany's (approxi-
mately) one-third of Russian exports.
Britain FORCES Ahead.
In recent years, however, the roles of
England and Germany have been re-
versed England has occupied almost
consistently the first place in Soviet eX-
port trade even during the heyday of
o-German commerce in the pre-
Hitler period, while during the past three
years especially she has greatly out
distanced Germany. Thus England and
not Germany has been the most impor-
tant market for Russian products in spite
of the very uneven Anglo-Soviet diplo-
matte relations. So much for exports.
AS for imports, prior to the first World
War as we'll as during the years of the
first ive-year plan l929-1933), when
foreign trade was larger than in subse-
quent years, imports into the U. S. S. R.
from Germany greatly exceeded those
from England. Since 1884 England has
not only caught up with Germany, but
in three out of the five years even eX-
ceeded the latter as supplier of the
Soviet Union. No doubt the Anglo
Soviet agreement of 1884, which required
q more balanced trade between the two
countries, and the worsening of German
Soviet relations had something to do
with the increased relative Importance
Of imports from Great Britain.
However, and this is a vital point, it is
not merely the quantity but the charac-
ter of these imports that deserves at
tention. Those from England consist
mostly of industrial raw materials and
colonial products. Thus in 1886, the last
full year for which such data are avail
able, rubber constituted % per cent:
metals, mostly non-ferrous, 81 per cent;
tea and cocoa, per cent; jute, wool and