Evening star., 1939-12-31
Solid Basis Seen
After 10 Years
0fDepression
Wor Stimulates Trend,
Heoy Goods Are
In Demond at Lost
By FORREST II. GRAVES,

any AI6GlLeC N TIE past, American
business weighs the ersrgsrI POS
s-alIEY that far higher le7s-s Of
production and Distribution can oe
won n the year ahead-
IL could oe Ten years Of degrees
SION only feeCIrgIy arlghEecec ~
flashes Of prosperity have forced re-
ad I1s51eCEs, Developed demands
and con-rInL-ed experiences which
= war rad not come. could have
furnished solid oas1s for sustained
ot-SIless expansion
Wa, however, s1Iru-aI led enC-
IoC-ry prices and speculative IL
IeresC Some war orders, ucIaolT FAR
aircraft, machines and 1exrLss hare
already affected prod cuc-iou trdeZss
Heavy goods are II demand az LAST.
Wor-t s-rrlr-.ses WHICH nave sro1-
clec American producers for dec
ace ara 5e1cIEg 20 ne less ou-cer-
soUe The direct effect CT the va.
assI-T-E I[s character does not
greatly change, Or the srsa ot ccC-
IlCE cecrUe greatly enlarged. nay
add on-Y small percentage 60 u.
total volume o- BUSINESS. But -ce
Psychological influence Of rar adt.t
20 -Ee ready tEet for CoCesClc re-
cn7erT, could prucLce 4 oooC period
Of sLcd cnlossal-T epic proportions
that 10 one quite cares coccsIye -
fullest posa-oLLtles
Unusual Year Certain
To make doguaClc precic-lcC
on The course Of ouslness for re
year. the next SIX -crEts. OF TIE
cex1 SIX Eeexs. however. Is 10 march
INTO TIE Tricky minded economic
fed with hooraiI oooEs The safss-
and sI-res1 prediction Is -na1 I141
VII de one OF The 1os1 CcI..s1.aI
years N Americas 5 volatile BUSINESS
history. EXPANDING the present CreCt
IL could he vary good T. could 1e
extremely cad Il could oe 1 7ea-
Of wilder Ey-s1 1nns than 1897 or
1882 or 1873 Certainly Il VII not
1e Al easy, UusvsrttuI Tear for 1J1s--
ness, Since is course VII lct &c
caar-eC ~ eIsuerGs 6eGsrulrahIe .
statistics Or ordinary deduction
Economically, As TIE vcrI- Is
poi IIca-Iy, Es ars IlevItahlv a1 1t=
mercy Of eTsr1s abroad and the
decisions Of lvc or three Eer. No
one can torsIsl how American o1-sl-
ness would oe affected oy Ii aorurr
peace. T. would depend upon how
permanent the peace Appeared 90
De. aoy important var crter8 and
the srEicIpsI Ilor Of var orders had
oecoCe. AZ present. peace would
not G1ter-upE for long the ursUz.
Ct general ousi-ess ACTIVITY. L
might &c hailed as The ces5 k-16
Of ouI-s1 Development after :
period Of appraisal And certainly
It would place such prug-sss a Y.
night tLereat Ter achieve on 4 IA
sCUlGer basis than i var Is even
= par-laL tac5or
I5 L Useless 20 speculate UPON
v125 might occLr = The Tinted
States should oeccu-e involved n
EG-ope's wars. Business feeling Is
Strongly against partIcI5 "a Iiou now
and Il -s far more aware Of tLs sGaks
II peace than ever before. While
U-To-VeEeE1 prouahtT would lof
change Tie essential character Of
our ecnEor1T as d-aSClcaIlT zs h1s
S7ue5u-es oeer predicted crrrcIs
Of prufas, prices and wages EouE
ce far mora than II -1tI-ia, I. &C
51cu II Britain and F-arce q Z
cr-5eriCC-
Unequal Boon Benefits
Although u IS quite sasT 70
visualize new nusluess and -cus-
trial records il IS also appars1t tia.
sIcl prosperity as Ta sr 10y II t34o
VII ce uneven. that many secroUs
q o1aress and that mary z-rups Of
c1IEels VII not share Ils oereEE
Business profits in 1cs5 Ines VII
cliuo.
Wage rates, particularly tor skill
cd .anor, VII soar 20 a--lIra tlras.
The earnings Of semi skilled and
Ccsk---ed VII Increase. On tie other
hand oeca1se Of cur greater eE-
cheney and oIgger population. 4
hard core CT uuenp picyuers" can
remain harrsss1rg prohlen-
Industrial output Der worker has
Increased, many Of the ureu clovst
VIII De either COO YOUNG or eco cid
TO &c readily ahscroed. lack Of
training VIII Geuar 4 considerable
section from easily finding enrIov-
1enT and VIII set 10 "aoG1Ie necks"
to c1oEe prudl1ctiou and Distribution
At Key points
AgrlcuIGur- may gan Only 4 rsiror
share Of the fruits of increased
prosperity, tco. There Is no vrre-
claSe prospect Of a demand for
hher, meats and grains such a IT.
taGeo American food production
trun, 1915 to 1920 Eurupe ts BETTER
prepared than IN 1914. SuruI!es
have been stored against this con-
t1ngsncy. England and France are
I0nkIng more 90 their own resources
and that Of their empires. TIE
CrI5ec States has lost Its douira5-
ing posirlor IN many export mar
ksGs
Wheat farmers. ranchers and
planters viii find more profIahIe
domestic markets. however, because
Of BETTER nuTIns power IN industrial
SECTIONS and Less pressure from fer
eign surpllIses Bur the expert or-
pcrruulEy At present does noG ofer
the poteuElzI s1palsson Of Is 7earJ
ago.
Building Can Share.
The building industry is due for
further gains Il The general level Of
dollar income moves up. Even q
small dash Of inha1icn would zI1ul1-
late rents and give further impetus
to construction figures wf1ich have
shown unexpected strength IN the
last two Yeary Such a tendency
WOULD De contrary TO The experience
of 1914.
Building remained m a depressed
state during tine early years Of ss1a
Worid War and hnua cnrSrr,scStm
esee BOo0(. Psgr DAD