Evening star., 1939-01-01
Export Trade Eases
; 10 5 Per Cent in
Depression Year
Tariff Pocts Helpful,
Goins Likely From
British Treaty
By Cambridge Associates.

American export trade made a
Tar better showing than did domes-
tic business last year. When the
twelve-month total is available it
will show loss of but three to five
per cent as compared with 1887.
Where domestic business volume
dropped to the l934-1935 level, our
sales to other nations held we'll
above the 1886 mark.
Furthermore, the outlook for next
year is bright Orders for military
and semi-military supplies and
equipment are holding high; the
American automobile holds a high
place abroad wherever it can be
sold at a competitive price after
exchange loss and duty additions:
and we are again on an export
basis in regard to grains.
Early year figures should make
exceptionally favorable comparisons.
The Anglo-American trade agree
ment, signed November II, is effec-
tive January l and it is reported
that millions of dollars in new
orders which were damned up dur
ing the long period of negotiations
will be released when the new
schedule becomes operative.
Imports Off 40 Per Cent.
Rejecting our almost negligible
demand for raw materials during
the first eight months of the year,
imports from other countries will
show drop of approximately 40
per cent in contrast to the 3 to
S per cent reduction in export
trade. Gold shipments have more
than offset this favorable balance
so far With industry operating at
a quickened pace and with inven-
tory positions much reduced,
resumption of an uptrend in i'm
port trade will become pronounced
in the first quarter.
Completion of the trade pact with
the United Kingdom, Newfound-
land and the British Colonial En-
pire in November was hailed as
the outstanding diplomatic achieve
ment of the administration. Sign
ing of the revision of the 1886
Canadian treaty on the same day
added luster to Secretary Hulls
masterpiece.
Farmers Are Helped.
Negotiations with Britain we're
made extra difficult by Che Ottawa
agreement Of 1882 which insti-
tuted preferential tariffs within the
empire. Another difficulty was to
establish the items on which tariff
reductions could be granted without
affecting American manufacturers
disastrously. The compromise ar
rived at does not affect as large
a share of Empire American trade
as many tariff revisionists would
wish, but concessions have been
given and received by both parties
and, in the main, the treaty should
prove mutually beneficial.
Of our s463 100000 1896 figures
exports to the United Kingdom,
about 100000 worth Of products
are affected by the new pact, either
by direct tariff reduction, by being
bound on the free list, or by removal
CT quota restrictions. OF the $50
100000 worth of exports which will
enjoy direct tariff reductions on
January /, S2O,OoOOO0 is for agrl-
cultural products. The chief benefit
to our farmers is expected to come
from elimination of the duty on
wheat, lard and certain canned
fruits and fruit juices.
Twenty Trade Pacts.
The greatest British gain from
the pacts is looked for from tariff
reductions on textile, metal prod
ucts. leather goods and other
manufactured items. While COM
plants have been registered, largely
by American woolen goods manu-
facturers, concessions to Great
Britain will not affect items in
which producers here are largely
interested.
Since August "a, 1884 when the
first reciprocal trade treaty was
arranged with Cuba. 20 agreements
g with Canada) have been signed.
Two others are pending, with
Venzuela and Turkey During that
period, using 1887 figures, our ex-
. port and import trade has more
than doubled. While better world
economic conditions are, of course,
largely responsible for this progress,
Secretary Hull's program has
doubtless been of incalculable bene-
fit in focusing the attention of the
so-called democratic nations" upon
the necessity for freer trade Tor
the promotion of domestic business
activity and the maintenance of
living standards.
The relative stability of our for
eign business appears to offer at
least partial evidence of the value
of the reciprocal trade pact pro-
gram. It's most important trial will
come in the operation of the Anglo
American treaty during the coming