Evening star., 1939-12-31
BY MAI. GEORGE F. ELIOT.

year WnlCn OeglnS anu may enQ IL
war, a year which will certainly SEE
many surprises, whose events are
certain to take courses which can
not now be forecast or even dimly
suspected. The one thing certain
about war" it has been said, "is that
it is sure to produce the unexpected
In the course of these articles ]
have tried to avoid the 'perils OF
prophecy; indeed, there is only one
reasonably safe form of military
forecast, and that lies in assessing
the capabilities of the belligerents,
what they can do rather than trying
to say what they will do.
AS the New Year dawns, 1t is per-
haps an appropriate time to look
ahead a little, to examine the posi-
ton of both belligerent and non
belligerent powers, to ask ourselves
what their capabilities for the i'm
mediate future may be, what the
problems are which confront them,
what means they possess of solving
these problems.
Four Choices for Germany.
Considerations OF space must con-
fine our survey to Europe:
GERMANY.-Germany's immedi-
ate objective in this war was the
destruction of Poland. eliminating
that country as a barrier in her
Eastward expansion in search Of
blockade-proof access to foodstuffs
and raw materials. without having
to fight major war in the West.
She has successfully wiped out
Poland Gin the process demonstrat-
ing the Heretofore doubtful quality
of the new German army but is
confronted with military situation
in the West which inhiblts her
freedom of action in the East. At
tempts to close out the war in the
West by diplomatic action appear to
have failed. She can now either Cd
make peace on allied terms, includ-
ing the restoration of Poland.
Czecho- Slovakia and perhaps Aus
tria. a confession of defeat which
the Hitler regime could hardly ex-
pect to survive; 90 seek fresh con-
quests elsewhere in the hope OF be-
coming so strong as to defy furthe:
attack and so induce peace on
her terms; 90 SEEK solution In
her favor of the war in the West
by military means; "a play a walt
ing game.
Solution 1 is likely to be brought
about only by internal upheaval In
Germany, which on the basis OF
available evidence does not appear
imminent. Solution 90 may be
examined geographically. Germany
may turn (a) against Scandinavia;
cb) against the Balkans; Co against
Russia
In the first case. involving perhaps
an extension of the Russo-German
pact to the division of Scandinavia,
Germany Immediately becomes in
volved in a life-and- death struggle
with the allies especially Britain 4,
who cannot for moment contem-
plate German domination of the
Norwegian coast and must throw in
their full power to prevent it.
Cannot Count on Russians.
Therefore, if the Germans make
this attempt they do so in the full
knowledge that they are stalking
everything on the East They have
the advantage Of a central position,
of operating on. interior lines, OF
commanding by means of aircraft
and submarines the British COM
munications to Norwegian ports;
but they bring into the field against
them fresh enemies (the Scandi-,
navian powers and they crystalize
the resentment of the trans-At-
lantic world against their methods
and doctrines. If they lose, if their
naval and air forces are beaten back
and the allies powerfully established
in the Scandinavian peninsular,
turning the Baltic flank and ad-
mitting British seapower to that
enclosed sea, Germany has lost the
war. The Russians cannot be
counted upon, on their record in
Finland, for any considerable as
sistance, a fact which becomes daily
more apparent, which may already
have influenced Germany in de-
cisions.
In the Balkans direction, Germany
may well perceive the approach of
danger; danger based on the Anglo
French-Turkish pact, on the con-
clusion of allied trade agreements
with Rumania and Yugoslavia, on
the activities of Italy and the reports
of Italian-Turkish reapproachment,
on the concentration of allied mill
tary strength in the Near East. The
formation of Danubian front
would bring back those perils of a
war on two fronts" which Ger
many hoped her stroke at Poland
and her agreement with Russia
would eliminate.
Rumania Likely Victim.
Therefore, Germany might well
consider now some decisive action in
the Balkans, some continuance of
her OLD and up-to-now successful
policy of picking off small potential
enemies one by one before they can
combine against her. Assuming such
a decision, Rumania seems the most
likely and Immediately profitable
victim; though access to Rumania
is now to be obtained by Germany
only through Hungary, which must,
therefore, be bribed or bullied into
a Germany alliance, or directly
invaded.
The only other Balkan state with
which Germany has common from
tier is Qugoslavia, and Yugoslavia is
the most formidable in the military
sense, both as to her armed power
and as to terrain of all the Balkan
nations. Here Germany might we'll
be drawn into an exhausting and
profitless campaign which would
drain her resources without giving
her much return. But any German
move into the Balkans seems likely
to drive deeper the wedge between
Germany and Italy, and to produce
complications between Germany and
Russia. Italy would be the more