Evening star., 1939-10-21
Peace Chance Rises
As Lineup Of Forces
Becomes More Clear

becomes WOIe IIedr
Decision Up to StoIin;
Will He Stop Now or
Stort New Orgy?
BY COL. FREDERICK PALMER,
Noted Military Expert
For the first time, we have some
thing like the final lineup of forces,
sea, land and air, both European
and Asiatic. vital for their policy
to both civil and warrior chiefs.
Now they can say, I'VE know where
we are and what we have to do."
Peace does not seem as remote as
before the Anglo French Turkish
pact was signed.
In any effort to stop this war
before it begins lin earnest" on pos
sibly much larger scale, diplomats
AAoV hA1OW WlllSil way tllC 8ulAo 4dlu
on the council table will be shoot
ing This removes at least one
hopeless embarrassment from any
secret tentative approach to nego-
tiations.
Reckoning up the armed power
of the nations at war and that of
the nations which might be drawn
in, the decision rests with Joseph
Stain. Will he be content with
what Russia has gained and put
the pincers on Hitler, or will he
start an orgy of shooting on his own
account?
Stain EurOpe's Master.
In one sense, Stain is master of
the present European situation, and
in another 1t is his master. Think
ing only in terms of force applied,
and potential force which may be
applied, let us review the progress
Of allied craftsmanship from the
outset Of the war, since the Anglo
French missions humiliation in
Moscow. The links take form in
revealing the chain of a necessitous
policy.
With Russia aligned with Ger
many, as the war drew near, the
allies had more reason to consider
whether Italy would be neutral; then
consider whether she would remain
neutral, and to bring the pressure
of the steel hand under the velvet
glove of diplomacy to bear to keep
her neutral. 1t was not for them
to underestimate Premier Mussolinis
nuisance value.
He had 300 bombers, nearly 1900
planes, old and new, in all; 80 sub
marines, not to mention his much
publicized little suicide speed tor
pedo boats, as threat to the French
ferry to Morocco, and. in the narrow
passage between Sicily and the
African coast, to the French as well
as the British lifeline through Suez
to the East and also to the oil fields
Of Iran and Iraq
In the interplay of forces, in
making virtue of loss, Anglo
French diplomacy could make the
lllooI Va VIC 1buSSo-1Cllldli paw DO
a threat to Italy's interests in the
Balkans. And on the borders of
the Suez Canal was Turkey, also
a power in the Balkans.
Sub Feat Boosted Morale.
The signing of the Anglo-French-
Turkish pact came on the heels of
German rejoicing over the immortal
feat of Submarine Comdr. Prien in
sinking the Royal Oak, and the air
raids over the Firth of Forth and
Scapa Flow. German morale was
strengthened with the promise that
victory would be theirs if they had
to fight long war.
The German communique report
ing the German offensive on the
western front, as it happened, was
timed with the pact. 1t literally i'm
piled, whether for concealment of
plans or not, that, having recovered
a strip of lost German soil, there
the German Army rested This, too,
was good for German morale in its
suggestion that responsibility rested
with the allies for a future bath of
blood"
The outlook, in all precedent, is
that the German Army will rest
after the heavy autumn rains have
begun falling and winter is in the
offing. Through the winter, the
Germans may be training reserve
manpower for the spring offensive.
But, by spring, the British, at the
rate they are training, should have
100000 men in France to insure the
stalemate on the western front while
they wear Germany down by block
ade.
Meanwhile, the Germans can cen
tinue their submarine warfare. So
far, they have sunk go per cent more
French ships than the French build
in a year. At the rate up to this
writing, they would sink 1,500 900
tons of British ships in year, while
the British build only 100000 tons a
year. But that would leave the Brit
ish still with 100000 tons.
"No Mans Sea" German Purpose.
Through the winter, too, the Ger
mans, instead of sending two squad
rons of bombers against British
naval ships and bases, may send
squadron after squadron. Evidently
the present German purpose, fur
ther supported by pressure on Nor
way and Sweden, is to make a no
mans sea of the North Sea, or even
to drive all British and neutral ships
off the North Sea-
Now we cross Europe to another
sea, the Black, on the Russian,
Turkish and Rumanian shores. II
Russia moves to recover Bessarabia,
she is at war with Turkey. This
will draw in Britain, in keeping her
agreement with Rumania. Greece
may be drawn in, too, along with
Turkey against Russia. Turkey
wants to be friendly with Russia.
She does not want war. No nation