The potters herald. [volume] (East Liverpool, Ohio) 1899-1982, 1939-07-13
Economic i. /.
eM9AA9AA

ness seems to be taking a steady, II
somewhat slow, turn for the better.
For considerable number Of weeks
a well-supported recovery" move
ment has raised the industrial activity
indexes. A representative index, Busi-
ness Weeks, touched the 100 mark to-
ward the end of June, marking 25
point betterment over the same period
year before. Forecast is that the
barometer will reach, and may pass,
the 105 level during the summer. All
the forecasters apparently feel certain
that improvement will continue into
the fall at least.
AS has happened in most of the
previous upward movements, the dom
inant part is being played by the con-
sumers' goods industries the makers
and distributors of those many articles
which all Of us buy, use, and wear out
at regular intervals. Retail trade, as
i is to be expected, is doing nicely. The
capital goods industries, on the other
hand, present far less optimistic
picture. Residential building is keep
ing some of them going at fair levels
now-but when fall and winter come,
there will almost certainly be sharp
let-down in building. There is COM
|paratively little non-residential build
ing, aside from certain amount of
government work, going on. So the
heavy goods industries, on which the
bulk of employment and purchasing
power in this country depends, must
exist largely on the outlet for goods
Offered by home construction-and
that is not healthy state of affairs.
If, for instance federal subsidization
of home building were to be stopped,
it could be expected that the severest
sort of depression would instantly hit
the basic industries.
Even in the consumers goods field,
there are a number of dubious factors.
Most important is the fact that the
relatively high level of consumer pur-
chasing power is made possible to
large extent by Federal spending. The
Federal cash deficit is now running
about $20O,O00,000 monthly. The to-
tai deficit for the 1889 fiscal year will
be around $3,5OO,OOO, ,OOO-exceeded
only by the 1886 deficit of 81 $50, ,OOO,-
900. That brings with it the prospect
of higher taxes and of new taxes,
which is a strong deterrent to capital
investment. Many business has dis
covered that, under today's conditions,
it is possible to do more business and
yet earn less profit, and when that is
true it becomes hard to coax dollars
out of investors for potentially pro-
ductive purposes.
Another bad factor is the approach
of next years general election. It's
an old tradition that business sits tight
and pursues policy of watchful wait
ing in Presidential election year
that is likely to besfoubly true in these
times, with the bitterest sort of battle
between conservative" and liberal"
forces within both parties, pending.
So the outlook remains confused
there are so many changing factors to
be weighed that it approaches the
height of folly to attempt to evaluate
conditions year or two hence. In the
meantime, you can be reasonably GER
tain that business will gradually get
better during the next few months,
and that the high reached this year
will be at least equal to that reached
last.
The state of confusion existing
among the experts over the burning
question of "Wil there be a war
soon?" can be judged by two articles
appearing recently in leading serious
Both articles were writ
ten by men of reputation, with a fair
claim to being authorities on events
abroad. One was entitled "There Will
BE No War;" The other was entitled
"Hitler Must Fight"
One theory which is encouraging to
the beleaguered democracies of Europe
is that Hitler cannot afford a war for
the reason that it would bring with it
an excellent chance of revolution at
homc-and that Hitler knows this,
even as he and other NaZi officials at
tempt to discredit it publicly. Certainly
an excellent argument can be made in
of the theory. The Nazi
regime has outlawed labor unions. 1t
has fought the churches, especially the
Catholic. 1t has imprisoned untold
thousands of dissenters in concentra-
tion camps, and executed many. 1t has
driven other thousands into exile. The
prosecuted people have families,
friends, connections. Not much is
heard from these possible dissenters-
the iron heel of the gestapo prevents
that-but it is logical to believe that
a substantial proportion of the Ger
man people hate the regime in power,
end are waiting for the day when it
may be destroyed.
In the countries which Hitler has
subjugated-suc as Austria and the
Czech provinces-conditions are still
worse from the Nazi point of view:
Production in factories has slowed
down, a tremendously expensive polio
ing job has become necessary, and well
accounts of sabotage are