The potters herald. [volume] (East Liverpool, Ohio) 1899-1982, 1939-01-19

The turn of the year is the econ
|omic forecaster's heaven. Within the
last fortnight every business publica-
|tion and economist of consequence
has devoted great effort to anticipat-
ing the future. Guesses as to details
of the business picture naturally vary
considerably-but, generally speaking
there is very little disagreement
among the experts over the picture as
la whole. With hardly a dissenting
voice, they forecast boldly that 1898
will be a year Of progress.
Two forecasts are of unusual inter
est. Paul Mallon reports that "Mr
Roosevelt's battalions Of figures are
unanimous for probably the first time
lin New Deal history. Government
economists now all expect a mild
slackening of industrial activity in the
next three months, sort Of readjust-
ment period, they call it, to be fol
lowed by a spring rise, strong sum-
mer, and much stronger fall-winter
year end" To put it more precisely
these economists think, according to
Mr.. Mallon, that industrial production
(Which is at 105 on the charts at this
writing) will gradually taper off,
reaching low of 81 in March, and
that the upturn will set in then, and
bring it to the 12O level in the late
fall.
Similar, and more particularized
views, are held by Roger Babson. In
a long optimistic article predicting
conditions in 1889, he observes, "Total
business by the end of 1889 will be
as good as-perhaps even better than
at any year since 1929. Jobs,
wages, retail sales, stocks and even
farm prices should chalk up good
sized gains. There are no hedges
tackled on to my forecast as there were
in several times past. Today | can
see no reason why the tides of re-
covery should not carry us vigorously
forward-perhaps even to new highs
since 1929"
Mr.. Babson then lists a number of
what he regards as strongly favorable
factors. These include: A growth of
100000 in our population since
1929; a multitude of new inventions
deferred demand for goods; govern
ment spending; low Inventories; re-
turning confidence due to less "busi-
ness batting; the pending boom in
building.
A survey of number Of other fore
casts indicates that the foregoing
opinions are typical. Some of the
dark spots in the business set-up are
Frightening. 1t is believed for in
stance, that there will be an improve
ment in railroad and public utility
purchasing, due to expanding demand
for power and transportation services.
And it is still hoped that Congress will
take steps toward eliminating some of
the problems that fpsfront these two
basic industries.
Best of all, perhaps, is the belief
that expansion in manufacturing and
mining will create an increased de-
mand for durable goods, and thus
spur the long dormant heavy indus
tries. If that happens, a tremendous
amount of employment will be created,
and all commerce will feel the good
effects. SO far, recovery has been
largely confined to consumers goods
industries, due in large measure to
government relief spending; there can
be no real prosperity, as any econ
omist can tell you, until durable goods
show comparable improvement.
X X
Thus, the domestic situation is rel
atively good. The international stu
alton is about as bad as it can be.
The United States is very close to
a complete severance of diplomatic
relations with Nazi Germany. Sen
ator Key Pittman, chairman of the
potent Foreign Relations Committee,
has announced that he favors cutting
off trade with the Reich, and many
other influential congressman agree
with him. Legislation toward that
end will probably be introduced this
session. Our State Department has
taken the strongest possible stand
against German representations
has gone to lengths that are rarely
reached in discussions with friend
ly" power. And in Germany, the con-
trolled press continues it's campaign
of almost unrestrained abuse directed
at this government and the officials in
charge.
The belief grows that Germany will
take steps this year toward acquiring
the rich mineral and agricultural lands
of the Soviet Ukraine-which, accord
ing to almost all the foreign authori-
ties, would mean war with Russia and
her allies. Trustworthy polls in Eng
land show the British peoples distrust
of Hitler growing, along with the sad
belief that they will have to fight him
one day.
Our relations with Mexico remain
unsettled, due to President Cardenas'
appropriations of American-owned
farming and petroleum properties.
And going farther South still, we find
Nazi and Fascist influences continuing
their steady growth in Pan and South
America.
Next European crisis is likely to