Evening star., 1939-08-03
Motor Industry
Refuses 10 Predict
Production Volume
Conditions Point to Rise
In Consumer Demand, but
Buying Power Is Question
BY DAVID ]. WILkIE,
AeSoeiotod Dr~SS Five pcio yHr;tar

DETROIT, Aug. 3.-The men who
make motor cars are finding much
cause for qualification in economic
developments that point to a con-
tinued upward trend in the con-
sumer demand for automobiles, but
all are agreed they cannot forecast
the volume of production or retail
sales as far ahead as next November
Barring abnormal conditions Octo-
ber, November and December should
find the assembly lines of all pro-
ducers geared to high level output
programs. for the stocking of dealers
with new models still will be under
way during that period.
What will come around the turn
of the year all manufacturers and
sales managers admit is somewhat
uncertain. These individuals take
this position not from any inherent
peSsimism. but because they have
learned from experience that motor
vehicle distribution reacts more
quickly to any development affecting
the general business picture than
does any other line of industrial ac-
tivity.
See 4,00O, 900 Needed.
The statisticians of the automobile
industry can produce figures to
prove that replacement requirements
alone can require more than 4,OOO,-
600 new motor cars in the 1910 SELL
ing season. At the same time they
cannot prove that general buying
power throughout next year will or
will not be strong enough to send
100000 new car buyers into the
salesrooms III the coming IL months.
AS a general proposition today's
motor car manufacturer is more op-
| tlmlstlc even than were the found
ers OF the automobile industry. They
know that approximately 80 600 900
passenger cars and trucks are in use
today and they know also that close
to third of these have exceeded
the average life of the average
car"
Moreover, they have long held the
automobile to have become a neces-
sity and not luxury.
Thus the car maker and the re-
taller know that their annual mar
ket is definitely fixed, if anywhere
near normal purchasing capacity
prevails.
Factors for Optimism.
Among the factors contributing
to the optimism in both manufac-
turing and distributing divisions of
the industry are better conditions
of used-car stocks and the general
liquid condition of dealers holdings
of current models as the 1899 sea-
son nears its end.
With possibly a few isolated ex-
ceptions, every dealer will have his
floors cleared of all new 1889 units
before factory shipments of the new
models begin to arrive Some deal
ers, of course, may take losses in
clearing out their stock, but all will
be ready to concentrate on the sale
of the new 1910 models as soon as
deliveries can be promised.
The task of the manufacturing
division when new car assemblies
begin can be appreciated when it is
remembered there are approximately
Al 500 fetal dealers in the United
States to be supplied with new
models.
Several in Production.
Several of the car makers al
ready are in production in a modest
way on next years models and al
ready have arranged for press pre-
views. The initial introductions,
however, still are to be held. These
probably will be set to coincide with
the first actual retailing of the new
vehicles, probably around Septem-
ber /.
If the program develops in this
way the majority of the producers
once more will have their cars on
sale well in advance of the Ma
honal Automobile Show in New York
in October. The manufacturers,
however, no longer look upon the
automobile show as the occasion
for the initial public introduction of
new cars.
Competitive factors, they say,
won't permit them to hold back
their new models until show time.