Evening star., 1939-09-03

dependence, their general stats will
face one of the most difficult prob
lens in military history-saving an ally
whose territory they cannot readily
reach from the blows of an enemy
whose country is protected from them
by an almost impenetrable wall of con-
crete and steel.
Military experts to whom this cor
respondent has talked emphasize at the
start the danger in predicting dogmat-
ically just how Europes armies, navies
and air fleets will move-if they do
There are many possible plans and
combinations of plans. A few main
points, however, seem clear enough to
be almost automatic. These are:
l. Poland, alone and unaided, must
bear the brunt of an attack by German
land forces more than twice as large
as its own for several weeks or possibly
months, before Great Britain or France
can place single soldier upon Polish
soil. Estimates of the time the Poles
can hold back the German military
machine from taking Warsaw and gain
ing control of the country's industry,
resources and government vary from
six weeks to six months.
2. Italy is the key piece in this Euro
pean military chess game. If II Duce
goes in on the side of Germany, the
strategy of the war seems obvious.
The British and French naturally
would throw the bulk of their forces
against Northern Italy. leaving only a
protective force along the Maginot Line,
which is believed invulnerable to a Ger
man invasion. This invading army
would attempt to batter its way through
Italy and into Germany through the
south. entering through what was once
Austria.
If Italy remained neutral, of course,
this plan of attack would be impossible
unless the allies invoked the doctrine
of military necessity and violated
Italian neutrality-a not-likely course.
3. 1t seems virtually certain that
Great Britain and France, having a
ee-to-one superiority over the COM
bined German-Italian fleets. would
dominate the seas as in 1914-1918.
Their control of the Mediterranean,
after some sharp battles with the Ital-
ian navy, should be established early
in the war. Even with their marked
superiority, however they would hardly
dare to invade Germany's sea base in
the Baltic and send troops in that way.
The entrance channels to the Baltic
around Denmark are so narrow that
Germany can defend them easily. Ex-
perts say that the British probably
would lose half their fleet in trying
to establish line of communication to
Poland through these waters.
4. Finally. most experts agree that
in war between Germany and Italy
on the one side and Great Britain,
France, Poland and possibly Turkey and
Rumania on the other, the so-called
democratic bloc would almost GER
tainly win in the end because of their
superior economic and financial re-
sources 1t is likely, however, that they
would take a terrific beating in the
early stages of the war.
Poland Vastly Outnumbered.
Germany has an army OF 5,O00,0 900
trained men, more than 100000 of
which are now under arms. Poland
has 100000 men who have served in
its army, of which more than 1000 900
now are modified. So even if Ger
many left 100000 men on it's western
border, it could still invade Poland
with vastly superior force.
iS inv
three directions-from East Prussia on
the north, from the west and from the
south, where there are large troop con-
centrations in what was once Slovakia.
Poland, from the German border to
the Russian on the east. is one vast
plain. The Poles, unfortunately, have
no natural mountain ramparts, except
on the south, and these already are
dominated by the Germans. the Reich
having vastly improved it's military po-
sition against Poland by taking over
Slovakia.
A part of Western Poland is very
marshy, which might cause some trouble
for Germany's heavy tanks and other
mechanical equipment. But no serious
delay on this account is expected, and
it is merely question of how long the
Poles can hold back the steadily ad-
vancing Germans
The fundamental task of the Poles
will be to prevent the complete subju-
CATION of their country until aid for
them can arrive or a large part OF
German troops are transferred from
the Polish front by Franco-German
menace elsewhere
Military men differ as to whether
the French and British under any con-
ditions would attempt to break through
the heavy fortifications of the Seigfried
Line, paralleling the Maginot Line on
the German side and extending from
Switzerland well past the Belgian bor-
der. France, with 6,250,00O trained men,
has an even larger army than Ger
many, and-except for its air corps
one that is regarded by most experts
as better equipped.
Troops From Dominions.
Moreover, the French, after a few
weeks. should be able to count on con-
siderable land reinforcements from
Great Britain, which has about 1868, 900
trained trobps and could bring in more
from the dominions-Canada and Aus
tralia, particularly within a few
months. So, If the Italians remained
neutral, France would have a numer-
ical military superiority over Germany
alone.
A. To- rfa To-