Evening star., 1939-11-16

Mediterranean fleet with three very
good battleships OF the Warspite
class, reinforced by q Turkish battle
cruiser. Both OF these forces are
strongly superior to the two Italian
battleshipes now available. Either of
them would be inferior to the
Italian squadron Of six ships as
above outlined.
Few Allied Reinforcements.
What are the possibilities OF the
allied forces being strengthened in
the west, the only other available
French battleships are the new high
speed Dunkerque and Strasburg, be-
longing to the Atlantic Fleet and
now slated to be at sea in pursuit Of
German raiders. While these raid
ers remain out, not only is it unlikely
that the fast French battleships can
be sent to the Mediterranean, but
the British battleships of the home
fleet will be needed for blockade and
convoy duties while the British
battle cruisers must also sweep the
seas searching for the German
pocket battleships. In the east, there
is little Likelihood of any reinforce
ment being available for the British
Mediterranean fleet until recon-
struction work is completed on the
other two battleships of the War
spite class Queen Elizabeth and
Valiant), which will certainly not be
for some months. Moreover, there
must be considered the ever present
possibility of German raiders ap-
pearing in the Indian Ocean or the
Pacific, as well as Of Japanese ac-
tivities in the Far East, such as q
move into the Dutch East Indies
which would urgently demand Brit
tsh naval action.
Italy's quiescence at the present
moment is easy to understand be-
cause there Is nothing else she can
do but to stay out of trouble. What
her attitude will be when the COM
pletion of her battle squadron
brings about so great a change in
the Mediterranean naval situation
is, OF course, another matter. It
seems very likely that it is Just the
completion of these battleships for
which Mussolini is waiting. This
does not, Of course, imply by any
means that italy will thereupon be-
come belligerent on the side of
Germany. The perils of so doing
would not be extinguished by her
increase in naval power. But it does
mean that to very large extent
she will regain freedom of action
which she does not now possess and
will be able to drive far better
bargain with the allies, either for
continued neutrality or for partici-
patton In the war on the allies side.
Problem Is Naval One.
When, therefore, we hear that
Mussolini is biding his time, that
he is capitalizing on his present
popularity due to having kept Italy
at peace, while not abandoning his
purpose of using his ornaments to
further his ends when the right
moment arrives, we should bear in
mind that his problem is primarily
naval one and Is chiefly dependent
upon the speed with which his in
complete battleships can be COM
missioned.
While these battleships remain
inert and unfinished masses Of use
less steel, Italy Is at the mercy OF
the sea powers, not only as to her
vital imports but as to her tenure
of her African colonies. When the
battleships are finished her position
will be very different one and her
naval strength will be a factor
which the. allies will have to take
grRye1y into account. It win cer-
tainly be preferable from their
point of view to make every rea-
sonable concession to assure italian
neutrality or gain Italian friend
ship. Almost certainly it Is upon
the size and nature Of these pros
pective concessions that the wise
and far-seeing eyes of II Duce are
now fixed. While he labors to build
up an Italian influenced bloc in the
Balkans, while he endeavors to i'm
prove Italo-Turkish relations. while
he observes with misgiving indica-
tions of Russian moves to the south,
he has not, we may be sure, forgot
ten that neither in the Balkans nor
the Black Sea will Italy's fate be
decided, but on the blue waters Of
the Mediterranean.
Copyright, 1899, New York Herald
Tribune, lnc)