Evening star., 1939-05-07
Discounts Conquest Of
British Empire
By OUen L. Scott.

treating with the explosive European Sit
uation Is the following:
But what would happen to the United
States If the British Empire should
crack up?" 81,
White House visitors say that Presi-
dent Roosevelt is inclined to pose that
question in defending or explaining his
foreign policy. The same question is on
the lips of State Department ofncials
and of other oficials.
A questioner is inclined to ask: "Well,
what would happen?"
The admirals and the generals Of the
Navy and the Army supplement the
broader question with another of their
own.
What" they ask, would happen If
Germany should defeat Great Britain
and should gain control Of the British
Navy-a navy larger than the American
Navy"
Again. the questioner is inclined to ask
in reply: What really would happen in
q situation of that kind?"
Actually, in seeking an answer to the
questions that would be raised by an end
to the empire that has been ruled for so
long by the British, newspaperman Is
impressed first of all by the strong con-
viction on the part of most informed
people that, II the Germans and Italians
think they can defeat the British and
then pick up the pieces Of the empire
they are due for very rude awakening
This first impression is that in any
fight that may be brewing, Great Britain
and her allies-probably after a severe
early drubbing-will come out on top.
But supposing that they did not come
out on top and that Germany and Italy
and-maybe-Japan won a decisive VIC
tory that gave them the opportunity to
divide up the possessions and domin-
ions that have made the British Empire.
What then?
If the experts are right, this certainly
would be different world with the Brit
ish Empire missing. The British have
pretty much run the trade and the
finance of the world of the last century,
policing the oceans, fostering commerce,
building a system Of world law and order
that made things rather comfortable for
the United States and for the whole
Western Hemisphere. They did this at
a price, but in the doing-among other
thing-this country found its Monroe
Doctrine safeguarded at a rather low
cost
With British power gone, all the old
rules built up under that power would
go, too.
First American concern would be with
the fate of the British Navy. For pub
lie consumption, the admirals and gen.
erals hint broadly that the British Navy
might get into the hands of victorious
Germans, and they suggest that this
country should have Navy big enough
to cope with any such situation. Really,
the best opinion seems to be that the
Germans and Italians and Japanese GER
tainly could not defeat the British Navy
and could not bottle up that navy. If
the British should be defeated without
destruction Of the navy, that navy would
hardly give itself up to the Germans, but
more likely would steam away to Canada
or Australia. The picture Of Germany
taking the British Navy intact and then
turning on the United States is regarded
as fanciful
The next American concern, once the
British Navy was cared for. would be
with the fate of the colonies and the
dominions of the empire.
Neither Germany nor Italy nor Japan.
singly or in combination, could look for
ward with any assurance-even in VIC
tory-that they could come over and run
Canada. They first would face the job
of beating the American Navy and the
American Army. Australia, too, would
prove a very hard nut for any conqueror
to crack. There is more than possibil-
ity that the United States would feel i'm
PEELED to interfere with the conquest of
that area.
A change of rulers in the African ter
ritories could come without any real up
set to this country. The United States
might even save some money in that
event because of the slight chance that
this country would give Germany or Italy
thirty-five Of its dollars for every ounce
of African gold-as it now guarantees to
do to the great benefit of the British En-
pire
India could be crossed off without
much help to the conquerors and with
out many repercussions here.
But If the British Malay States and the
Dutch East Indies were affected, this
country would have deep interest. We
now get tin and rubber from those
sources If they were in the hands of
Germany or Japan, we probably could
continue to be supplied, but on different
terms than at present. Some officials
here contend that the United States
would be justified in fighting to keep
open those raw material supplies. Other
of1cials insist that tin can be had from
Bolivia, and that rubber can be displaced
by more expensive, but still serviceable,
substitutes that would be cheaper than
the cost Of any war. The mere threat
OF closing the American market to tin
and rubber would be expected to bring
any owners of those raw materials to
terms. 1t is remembered that the Brit
ish not many years ago threatened to
hold up American consumers by kting
rubber prices.
Up to this point there is relatively lit
tie that need cause the United States
H. YY~&&