Evening star., 1939-12-03
Uncertainty Marks
Prediction Plans
BIZ ODen L. Scott.

SOlIl6 W lull IlllS AIOFCl IlIlCllU dlCCl
1910?
President Roosevelt already is trim
ming his sails to influence an answer to
that question. A fancy, somewhat doc
tored budget is taking shape at the White
House. Reforms are quietly forgotten.
There is an obvious drawing together Of
the White House and Democrats in Con-
to politics in inside interest
The very thought of a possible loss
of 100000 well-paying jobs is enough to
generate harmony and enthusiasm in
any political organization
But the very thought of chance at
those jobs Is enough to generate an en-
thusiasm for battle on the part Of the
politically starved Republicans. The
result is that both sides are forced to
get set for a struggle in which the stakes
are extremely high.
The first task is to settle the question
OF leadership through choice of a presi-
Dental nominee.
On the Democratic side, the leadership
choice apparently lies in this small
group: Roosevelt, Garner, McNutt, with
Cordell Hull as dark horse.
On the Republican side, the choice
apparently lies in this group: Vanden-
berg, Taft, Dewey, with Gov Bricker OF
Ohio as dark horse.
Certain facts should stand out on the
Democratic side. One is that there is
rather general belief that Mr. Roosevelt
will announce within the next six or
eight weeks that he does not desire re-
nomination. Another is that the President
will insist upon the right to a voice in
the selection of the party nominee.
third is that Mr.. Roosevelt will oppose
the selection of Mr.. Garner. Still an
other is that President Roosevelt be-
ieves that the party nominee should
have 'it"-a bit of glamour, front"
This seems to leave Paul McNutt in
favored position, and there are many
signs that the President is willing that
Mr.. McNutt be given a chance to try his
luck. The growing boom for Garner re-
quires that some one from the other side
be built up as an offset. But there also
are signs that Mr. McNutt is making
real progress under his own right as a
professed liberal. who believes in the
New Deal, and yet who has formula for
inducing businessmen to accept and to
enjoy reform.
But there is no evidence that Mr.. Gar
ner and James Farley agree with the
President on the availability of the Ma
tons security administrator. There is
the little matter of Indiana's Two Per
Cent Club and of the fact that the
McNutt organization barely squeezed
through the 1888 election in the home
State. In case of a convention deadlock,
two things are possible:
/. A compromise that would give the
nomination to Cordell Hull, Secretary of
State, who has the friendship of the con-
servatives and who could not be opposed
by the White House.
2. A sudden presentation of the name
of Franklin Roosevelt to a hot and
squabbling convention, with the chance
of stampede that would result in a
draft Roosevelt" nomination and q
third-term try.
unless the President dennltely counts
himself out of the nomination, it would
be rash to predict that he might not be
selected up to the very time that a diff
ferent decision is made
There is even less clarity on the Re-
publican side.
Senator Taft is making the most ag
gressive campaign. The Senator is max
ing no bones about the fact that he is
conservative. Senator Vandenberg ap-
pears not to be doing much to further
his chances and seems on the surface not
to be greatly concerned about whether
he does or does not make the race.
Youthful Tom Dewey, New York prose-
cutting attorney, is preparing to sell him.
self to the Nation, but war and its prob
lens have somewhat handicapped him.
1t is entirely possible that these three
individuals might get into convention
tangle that would leave none OF them
with majority.
In that event Gov. Bricker of Ohio is
the man to watch. The Ohio Governor
is not widely known and, like Mr.. Dewey,
is not so we'll acquainted with national
prODlelnS, DuC ne possesses al ATTRACTIVE
personality and appearance.
AS matter of fact, the country knows
little about the views OF most of the can
didates for the Republican and Demo-
cratic nominations.
On the Democratic side, voters know,
Of course, what President Roosevelt's
specific ideas and plans are. He has had
to spend eight years making practical
decisions. 1t is known that Mr.. Garner is
not friendly to existing labor policies,
farm policies, tax policies or spending
policies. But the exact policies that the
Vice President would follow as Presi-
dent are not known.
Mr.. McNutt, in general, is for the New
| Deal objectives. But the security admin
| istrator's speeches are confined to pleas
ant-sounding generalities, as BELTS a
| candidate. AS Governor of Indiana, Mr..
| McNutt did tax ruthlessly to bring State
| finances under control and he gained the
| support Of the States farmers. His stand
on vital labor issues is uncertain.
| Cordell Hull is conservative who be-
lieves in lower tariffs But, as cabinet
member, the Secretary of State has not
entered into controversy on other New
| Deal policies.
y r.