Evening star., 1939-09-24

The Nasi par machine needs tn
ma; a1'G a. 9r 3h me output ear r.; an .3t atten,
Can France and Great Britain, by an
iron-clad blockade by land and sea, hope
to starve Germany into surrender or so
to cripple her military machine by shut
ting of essential war materials that her
mechanical ground forces and air ar
madas will be disastrously weakened?
The answer, of course, Is dependent
largely on the final action of the Union
Of Soviet Socialist Republics and, to
lesser extent, on whether Italy continues
as neutral. Assuming, however, that
Soviet Russia should become neutral
after achieving her aims in Poland and
perhaps Rumania and the Baltic states,
or that she should herself become thor
oughly embroiled in war and require all
her own domestic supplies of war COM
modities, what can Germany expect?
Studies, based on the assumption that
Germany can rely only on neighboring
Balkan, Central European and Baltic
states which are not yet hostile to her,
indicate that the Reich need have no
fear of starvation. She does face Sc
rious and ultimately Gripping lack of
iron ore, petroleum and long list of
vital war metals and minerals, however,
after her present war stocks are ex-
hausted.
Germany has sought desperately dur
ing recent years to achieve self-suffi-
cheney, at least as affects her essential
war materials. In some commodity
fields she has been successful, in others
partially so, but in others she is woe
fully weak-a weakness which in case
of long blockade probably would bring
her to her knees in time as it did in
1918 after four years of war.
Reversal of Trade Balance.
German economy during 1898 reflected
the pre-war climax of the extraordinary
efforts necessitated by political dev~lop-
ments and the evolution of the basic eco
nomic policies of the Reich.
From the very beginning of the Ma
tional Socialist regime, the subordination
of economic policies to political objec-
tives was the guiding policy, and it was
to be expected that the elimination Of
the Austrian and the Sudeten questions
would influence profoundly every phase
of the national economy" the Bureau of
Foreign and Domestic Commerce ex-
planned. The complete reversal of the
trade balance from an export surplus of
about 450, 900 900 marks in 1887 to an i'm
port surplus of nearly the same amount
in 1898 is only one of the economic man.
ifestations of the territorial change. The
attainment of full employment and in
creased shortage of skilled labor, COM
bined with the congestion in the capital
goods industries, are limiting the effec-
tiveness of the government method of
financial rearmament and the four-year
plan by means of short-term treasury
paper, which can no longer create new
production facilities. An increase in pro-
ductivity is now to be obtained by means
of additional industrial equipment or the
better utilization of the existing plants" !"
Germany has been increasing its pro-
ductivity by both these methods in q
number of the most important war COM
modify fields.
The German Reich today has a surplus
of coal. potash and magnesite, but is
partially or wholly deficient in virtually
every other raw material essential to
war. OF particular importance to her
are great shortages of iron ore and
petroleum, without which her mechan-
lied war machine must inevitably break
down and her great air force fold its
wings.
Is Per Cent Coal Surplus.
Germany now produces coal surplus
of approximately rs per cent and can
employ this surplus to exchange for
supplies of foodstuffs and other raw
materials. She has been developing
methods of producing liquid fuels and
oils from coal and today is capable of
producing about Is per cent of her peace
time motor fuel requirements in this
way.
Iron ore obviously is one of the first
priority requirements for any country
which supports q modern mechanized
military machine like that of Germany.
Before and during the World War, when
Lorraine and Silesia we're still part
Of the Greater Reich, Germany was 70
per cent self-supporting in iron ore, ac-
cording to recent survey by the British
Royal Institute of International Affairs
Today, however, as a result of the
Treaty of Versailles, Germany is able to
produce only Is per cent of her iron ore
requirements from German mines. It is
regarded as doubtful whether even the
uneconomic extraction Of low-grade ores
by the Hermann Goering Iron Works
can raise the production above IS per
cent.
Nearly half of the German imports Of
iron ore are from Sweden and. before
the outbreak Of the present war, the re-
mainder Of her supply came chiefly from
Spain and Frances Lorraine mines. Both