Evening star., 1939-10-07

press, ana IN the
Cap itol lobbies F<>.
and maybe the David Lawrence.
Senators are becoming somewhat
bored themselves with the subject.
Underlying this apathy Is the fact
that votes on both sides have been
lined up solidly and hardly any will
be changed between now and the
final roll call. The administration
has a majority for repeal and the
opposition would like to postpone
the voting as long as possible in the
hope Of changing votes by inf1u-
ences from back home.
But as time elapses the chances
are that the repeal will be voted
anyhow. and that the cash-and-
carry plan, presented with almost
unanimous enthusiasm at the begin
ming, will begin to lose supporters.
For, from political point of view,
the imposition of restrictions on
American trade can easily become a
boomerang. At the moment votes
for it are justified on the senti-
mental basis that it helps to keep
America out Of war, but few
months hence when commerce and
trade have been demoralized. the
opposition candidate will single out
the Senators and Representatives
who voted to drive American ships
of the high seas and stagnate
American production.
Murmurs by Shipping Interests.
If the war boom develops, little
will be heard of the cash -and- d-carry
provisions of the law, and if Amer
lea does not become involved in the
overseas conflict the stay-out of
war argument which prompted
votes for the new neutrality statute
will have become somewhat obsolete.
But If there is harassment of
American trade and business be-
gins to decline, the persons affected
will begin to put the blame on those
members of Congress who struck a
damaging blow not alone at trade in
war supplies but in the staples
grown by American farmers and
produced by American factories.
Once exports to Canada begin to
fall of, the criticism will rise per-
ceptibly.
Already there are murmurs heard
from the shipping interests, which
say the American merchant marine
Is about to be crippled after Con-
gress had given the industry its first
real impetus in a couple Of decades.
American shipping has been enjoy
Ing subsidies furnished by Congress
In order to build up auxiliaries for
national defense and to promote
our commerce. But If there are no
cargoes to carry and all trade with
belligerents is cut off. which is
really what the cash-and-carry pro-
visions will soon mean so far as
American vessels that ply between
here and Europe are concerned,
there will be no need for the build
ing of more American ships. They
will begin to be tied up, notwith-
standing that the oceans will see a
smaller and smaller quantity of to-
tai tonnage af1oat due to submarine
operations.
1t Is too early to appraise the ef-
feet of trade repercussions. Fig
ures and statistics are not imme-
diately available for the month of
September, and it will probably be
the first of November before Amer
lea knows what really has happened
to normal trade. The cash-and-
carry provisions, aimed, of course,
at war trade, may conceivably affect
the financing of normal products,
because these purchases of ordinary
commodities which used to be
financed for cash will require credit
as the belligerents will husband
their cash resources for the neces-
stiles.
May Be Backfire.
These arrangements and read
Justments of commerce, due to the
proposed surgical operation about to
be performed on the American ex-
port and import business as whole,
are purely theoretical now as mem
bers Of Congress indifferently dis
cuss the new form Of embargo. But
when 1t comes 1t may have political
backfires of an extreme sort. Every
experience with embargoes in Amer
ican history has been disastrous, and
those who remember the restrictions
imposed on trading with the en-
emy" during the war know that it
went far beyond commerce with bel
ngerents and affected exports to all
neutral countries.
Now when there is added to the
. confusion the Punishment Of Amer
lean cargo vessels from the seas, the
effects will be even more far-reach-
ing. For the moment, however, the
argument that America may be
dragged into the war has been pre-
eented with such emotional hysteria
that members of Congress and the
administration itself have been
embargo.
Six months from now those in the
political arena who stood up for the
right Of America to carry on trade.
and who were keen enough to note
that nothing in Herr Hitler's
speeches or German pronounce
ments indicated any attacks on
American shipping, may be able to
turn the tables on those who voted
to drive American ships of the high
seas when it wasn't really necessary
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