Evening star., 1939-01-08

All hope for wheat expectation, indeed,
lies in this European area affected by
war scarces so that stocks are increased,
and that hope is slim. L. A. Wheeler,
the chief of the Agriculture Depart
ment's Foreign Agricultural s4rvice,
makes this clear in recent paper, wfen
he says:s
1T is difficult to escape the conclu-
sion that the Orient cannot be depended
upon to expand its wheat imports suffi-
GENTLY to contribute significantly to a
solution of the lack of balance between
world export supplies and world import
requirements. Because of the pre-
dominantly agricultural character of
these (the Latin American) countries, it
is not reasonable to expect that part
Of the world to play, in the near future,
anything like as important a part in
the world wheat import picture as in
.dustrial Europe has played in the past.
There remains, then, only Europe to
consider as market for the worlds
surplus wheat. And in this considera-
ton, it must not be forgotten that two
OF the important wheat surplus areas of
the world, the Danube Basin and the
Ukraine, are adjacent to the Euro.
pean deficit areas"
Moreover, Mr.. Wheeler points out, "the
net European requirements for the wheat
Of the on-European exporting coun-
tries and Russia now amounts to only
about 36o,ooo,ooo bushels, against about
580O00,000 bushels in the 1920s."
The reasons are various for the de-
cline suffered for exporters in the Euro
pean market, which the current stocks
storage program is helping only slightly.
The leading factor, however, in almost
every case is the struggle for self -suf-
flciency.
Pointed Remarks on Germany.
Mr.. Wheeler has an interesting COM
ment on the country which today is
uppermost in the minds of all, Ger
many. He says:
Germany was formerly the second
largest wheat-importing country in con-
tinental Europe. Its net wheat imports
averaged about 100000 bushels an
nually during the 20s. In the five
years ending July, 1887, they averaged
100000 bushels, decline of 50 per
cent. In the present year Germany,s
production of wheat and rye together
was sufficient for its total requirements
although some wheat has been imported,
partly for special needs and partly for
addition to stocks.
1T should be understood that these
remarks as to German requirements
apply to the situation before the absorp-
ton of Austria and Sudetenland; their
inclusion within the German Customs
Union adds to German requirements,
since they are both wheat-deficit areas,
but it does not, of course, add to total
European requirements.
"The explanation of this decline in
German requirements for wheat is to
be found both in increased production
and in reduced consumption.
"On the production side it Is note
worthy that the wheat acreage of the
country has increased from about 4,00O,-
900 acres in 1926 to 100000 acres in
1896. Wheat production has increased
from an average of 106,0O0,OOO bushels
in the five years ending in 1927 to 49,
100000 bushels in the five years end
ing in 1886, while the 1888 crop is esti-
mated at nearly 200, 900 900 bushels.
"As in the case OF Italy, German farm
ers have been encouraged to grow more
wheat by the establishment of favorable
guaranteed prices. This year the Ger,
man farmer is assured price equivalent
to more than 81.
ION the side of consumption, the most
important thing to note is that rye has
always been an important alternative
breadstuf in Germany. Furthermore,
Germany has been historically a surplus
producer of rye. Under regime such as
now exists in that country, it is quite
feasible for the government to bring
about shift to larger consumption of
rye for human food.
There is another important aspect of
the German situation which should be
mentioned. This relates to the increas-
ingly close economic ties between Ger
many and the countries of the Danube
Basin. There has already been a def
mite tendency in the direction of en-
couragement by the German government
Of increased production of foodstuffs and
raw materials in that region for the
German market"
The Danube Basin countries are Bull.
garia, Hungary, Rumania and Yugo-
slavia, where the current production is
439, ,438, 900 bushels, compared with $751;
464 900 a year ago. Their export prob
lem is simple, because an intricate ar
rangement Of barter agreements provides
them with outlets for practically all
their exportable grain.
For any other wheat-exporting nation,
naturally, these Danube countries might
as well not exist. The same statement
might be made with considerable truth
of France, which, after the United States.
Russia and India, is the largest wheat.
producing country in the world.
The market for wheat abroad, then,
obviously is limited. But the United
States, Canada, Australia, Argentina,
India and great many other countries
keep on growing for export. The Soviet
Is great granary, and exactly how many
bushels it is producing is a mystery; the
estimated world production Of 4,448, ,0OO,.
900 bushels excludes both the Soviet
and China.
To prevent chaos in the battle for tho
limited market is the business of the
meeting in London this week. Perhaps
the question of export quotas will be
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