Evening star., 1939-07-20
America and Russia
Held Essential 10
Ang|o-French Front
Critical Period Is Seen
During August and
September
By PERTINAX.

PARIS, July 20 (N.A.NAD The
Franco-British system of resistance
to the totalitarian states, to be fully
efficient, must be able to rely, on
one side. upon the willingness of
the Government of the United
States to sell war material on the
outbreak of hostilities to the pre-
dominant naval powers. and, on the
other side, upon RuSsia's co-opera-
ton. Were Russia's cooperation to
be withdrawn, the capacity of Po-
land and Rumania to withstand for
long German onslaught and main
tain lasting battle front could
perhaps be doubted.
AS a consequence, the check suf-
fered by President Roosevelt on
neutrality legislation and the post
ponement to the beginning of next
year of all congressional discussions
of the subject are keenly deplored
, here. Surprise is expressed at the
belief that is held. according to
press cables, by majority of Sena-
tors that no major European crisis
is likely to occur during the next
six months. Most competent au-
thorities, both military and diplo-
matte. would like, of course, to be
able to share that optimistic fore
cast, but they are at a loss, indeed.
to understand how it can be sub
stantiated.
Shift in Military Balance.
Any one who wants to foretell the
immediate future must keep in mind
the following fact: Next October the
output of war material in Britain
and France will, for the first time
balance the arms and ammunitions
turned out in German and Italian
factories. and even, as regards mill
tary airplanes. prove greater. The OBJ
Vlous inference to be drawn from
that state of affairs is that the
relative military power of Germany
and Italy is bound to decline three
months hence and that if Hitler
and MusSollni are determined to
take their chance on the battle
field, they must realize that time
will, before long, work against them,
and behave accordingly.
Informed opinion is that the pc
rlod most dangerous to peace will
probably open toward the middle of
September, because toward the end
of that month snow already will
have blocked all roads leading to
Italy across the Alps and therefore
the French higher command will be
deprived of an offensive outlet which
appears to loom fairly large in its
plans.
l do not mean to suggest that war
must be regarded as fatal before
next fall, but to issue warning
on the strength of most authorita-
tive opinion that the margin which
separates Europe from catastrophe
will never be thinner than during
August and September.
New Russian Proposals.
As to the Anglo o-Franco-Russian
negotiations. they are getting nearer
and nearer the critical point. Mon
day a new set of Russian proposals
was forwarded from Moscow. and it
Is now under the anxious conSidera-
tion Of the French and British gov
ernments. 1t does not differ in es-
sentials from the claims expressed
in the July note of Premier and
Foreign Commissar Molotoff. The
Russian negotiators have made up
their minds not to move one single
inch from their former demands.
AS recently as last week the Paris
and London cabinets were as one
in favoring rejection of a request
which threatened to tamper seri-
ously with principle dear to both
nonintervention in the home affairs
of independent states. But today
they are not SO ready to meet in
cold blood the untoWard repercus-
sion upon the whole Franco-British
system of security which a break
with Russia would entail There are
symptoms that the French govern
ment is not far from thinking that
the Russian draft ought now to be
accepted, subject to modification of
form, and that the British foreign
office anyhow is rather inclined to
follow suit. In that respect, it is
noteworthy that a Franco-British
conversation is generally expected
to take place today.