Milford chronicle., 1939-10-20

|. tion In many fields has shot sudden
!" ly upward, even though consump.
: tion has remained at about the same
level. Obvious reason for the rise is
the expectation of big war orders
from Europe, plus the supposition
. that raw material prices are due to
F. go up and stay up. Manufacturers
: have figured that they'd best buy
heavy stocks at once, while prices
: are relatively low, and be prepared
for big business when Europe begins
calling for supplies.
But, going by some significant re-
cent indications, there is very good
chance that the manufacturers who
have been planning on a major war
boom taking place soon will be
fOOled-and that the war prosper
ity" balloon may be rudely Debated.
In the first place, IL is a certainty
that our only major war customers
will be England and France-Brit-
tania rules the waves, and the Ger
man merchant marine has been al
most entirely driven to cover. Brit
ain has been preparing for this war
a long time. She didn't say much
about it, but has been laying in abb
normally heavy supplies of basic
materials for many moons. The re-
suit is that considerable time must
go by before she will have to face
a shortage of any important material
asset
In the second place, the allies must
husband their slender gold possess
ions. They haven't any money to
spend foolishly. Every penny ex-
pended must do two pennies work,
if possible. That means Britain will
exhaust to the utmost the resources
of that empire on which the sun nev-
er sets, before she makes any big
purchases elsewhere And the Brit
ish empire taking it for granted
that her feet will be able to keep
the trade lanes open, and hold down
losses from German submarine, bat
tleship and cir attack to a minimum)
is exceedingly rich in almost every
thing that is necessary to the main
tenance Of a country in either war
or peace. To considerably lesser
extent. this is also true of the French
empire. And what the French lack
will, as long as possible, be supplied
them by the British.
The effect of the war so far has |
been harmful to American business.
England and her possessions normal |
ly constitute our largest single for
eign customer. The outbreak of hos
tilities caused an immediate drop in |
British imports from this country. |
Where, for instance, we used to |
have fine stable market in England |
for perishable fruit, that market has
dwindled-and, think some, in the
near future it may disappear entire
ly.
There is one obvious exception to
this-and the exception is arms. If
the embargo is removed, we may
confidently expect the munitions in
dustries to boom. Britain is not aba
to produce adequate war materials.
even though all the resources of her
great manufacturing establishments
are today being given to supplying
her soldiers with the weapons of de-
structiOn. If you have airplanes
rifles, shells, or machine guns to !
sell. you have no need to worry about
your future business-yOu will prob
ably receive more orders than you
can handle, if the war goes on But
producers of other materials cannot
be sure of sanguine outlook as yet. !
And those who are buying raw mate
rials on a big scale in anticipation
of sustained and growing foreign
may be sadly disappointed. | I
The truth is that if the war lasts I
long, all of Europe will be practically
out of gold. and won't be able to buy Z
here no matter how great the need, :
unless this government permits bel l
ligerents to obtain American credit.
And the temper of Congress now is 1
almost 100 per cent against that. {
900
There is one big catch in the l.
cash-and-carry plan which would c
'orbid American ships to transport a
,argoes to belligerents. And no one 9
seems yet to have figured out a way
o solve the problem presented, and
II the same time safeguard our neu-
rality from being imperiled by unto Il
ward incidents" n
That catch lies in the fact that if 3
ash-and-carry is imposed, Ameri. Z
an ships can no longer go to Aus "
ralia, Canada, New Zealand, the :,
British West Indies-in brief, any II
lumber of countries near or within 9
his hemisphere. These countries are d
art of the allied empires. They are p
at war with Germany. Ger e.
ian U-boats would be perfectly JUS u
Ified in capturing or sinking ships ei
rading with them. And, if that trade
) stopped, the American merchant p'
larine might as well shut up shop d
nd call it a day. Most of the major ol
orts would be closed to our vessels. ST
On top of that, American citizens
'oHld no longer be able to go to
Iontreal, Sydney or Bermuda, for in
lance, save at their own risk.
ombs haven't yet fallen on such nj,
laces-but they are possible tar Sc
cts of war. and are OH a war foot ar
lg. - -
Sentiment at this writing seems to 'i
Ivor sacrificing our shipping if that -
necessary to keep out of the war. y,
erhaps in the future some system ~
ill be worked out whereby we will 80,
: able to carry on trade on a more a.
: less normal basis with colonies of t,,
but at the moment the s,,,
ltlOok for cur merchant marine ba
,esn't seem bright 80 SO
6sYARDSTJCK" ex