Evening star., 1939-07-30
Warless Yielding to Axis Seen
In Roosevelt Neutrality Defeat
England and France Stalemated Before Thev
Start Should They Attempt to Apply
Might in Defense of Poland
By Constantine Br0wn.


war will be avoided this year is based
on two factors which have come to the
fore in the last two weeks. One is the
fact that the Soviet Union has decided
to keep out of any kind Of commitments
regarding Europe. The other is the
failure OF Congress to repeal the arms
embargo. Under the circumstances, the
morale Of the British and French cab
inets has naturally fallen to minus zero,
while the leaders of the axis feel suffi-
ciently encouraged to claim that all their
problems in regard to Danzig and colonies
will be settled by common agreement
that is to say-with another bloodless
victory for the axis.
Last week this writer outlined the
reasons why Russias dictator, Stain,
had decided to turn deaf ear to the
British and French proposals that the
U. S. S. r. join the stop Hitler bloc.
Despite the hopes expressed by Premier
Chamberlain that "a satisfactory agree
ment with the government of the Soviet
Union will be reached shortly" it is now
an open secret that unless Britain and
France decide to sacrifice the Baltic
states, Russia will remain outside the
Franco British orbit. This, however,
was expected by those who knew of the
three-month negotiations. The French
and British military had decided to dis
count the possibility of Russias assist
ance in the event of conflict. Poland
and Rumania, expecting to be the first
victims of Germanys aggression, were
delighted with the hope that they would
not be coerced into accepting the Soviets
direct military assistance. Both coun-
tries maintain that they prefer to fight
the Reich alone-if they must fight
rather than have to worry about the
declared enemy in front and the un.
declared enemy, Russia, in the back.
Congress Deals Heavy Blow.
But while the assistance of the U. S.
S. r. no longer entered into the calcula-
tions of the western democratic" gov
ernments, the attitude of Congress to-
ward the neutrality legislation was the
most severe blow the French and British
governments have suffered in the last
few years.
The moral effect of President Roose-
velts defeat has been greater than most
observers can gauge. It disheartened
the British and the French, who we're
certain of Americas active support in
the event of a showdown with the powers
of the axis in the course of this year,
and it convinced Berlin and Rome that
for at least the first six months of war
they could count on Americas arms
embargo, which would adversely affect
only the opponents of the axis powers.
French and British newspaper COM
mentators and politicians taught their
people to read between the lines of the
many speeches made by Ambassadors
Bullitt and Kennedy. The slightest
allusion to "democracies standing to-
gether," or other such bromides, was
interpreted to the French and British
people as meaning definitely that Amer
lea would not remain neutral once the
guns had started barking.
All utterances from this side of the
ocean tending to prove this thesis were
given the utmost prominence, while the
cold water so many Congressman tried
to pour over the enthusiasm of the
British and the French commentators
was minimized and described as nothing
but prediction politics.
1t can be said without exaggeration
that the refusal of Congress to change
the existing neutrality law has had the
same, if not greater effect as the re-
fusal of the Congress to have anything
to do with the Treaty of Versailles or the
League of Nations.
Big Sacrifices Foreseen.
In spite of the efforts of the demo-
cratic" press to minimize the Importance
of the declination, both in London and
in Paris the feeling has become preva-
lent that peaceful solution involving
heavy sacrifices may become necessary
in the event that Germany presses her
point for an immediate settlement of the
Danzig problem.
When the President asked Congress for
large funds for the United States Army,
Navy and Air Force in bellicose mes
sage last January, the German and
Italian press received orders to cease the