Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1939-04-07

Charles G. Ross. composite fore
cast In poll taken by the magazine
NeWsweek and published as pre-
view" of the nominations and the
election.
Two correspondents to one IA
vored the Republican ticket to win.
Garner was picked by II as the like
Hest Democratic presidential nomi-
nee, Cordell Hull by 10, Roosevelt
by II. On the Republican side,
Dewey and Taft ran neck and neck,
far ahead Of the rest of the field.
Dewey got % votes as the likeliest
candidate to win and 16 votes as the
second likeliest. Taft had 81 first
choice and 10 second-choice votes.
There is only one item in these
interesting results that the writer
finds surprising, and that is the
fact that II out of the so CORE
spondents regard Mr.. Roosevelt as
the probable Democratic nominee
and six others rate him as the sec
ond ukeliest. Since forecasting
seems to be in order, the personal
conviction is here set down that the
third term aimed at by the Presi-
dent, if any, is not the term that will
begin in January of l941, but the
next one.
Could Get 1910 Nomination.
Mr.. Roosevelt probably could get
the nomination for a consecutive
third term if he cared to fight for
it. He would, obviously, have to
fight. He could win the nomination
only at the cost of split in the
Democratic ranks that would assure
a Republican victory in the election.
1t is possible, too, that the Presi-
dent, either for his health's sake or
in Difference to the anti-third- term
tradition, or both, genuinely wants
to 60 back to his Hyde Park farm in
194l. That, however. is not the point.
Expediency in any case, as it seems
to me. rules him out as candidate
-expediency not only from the PORT
OF view of his personal ambitions
but from that of the whole New
Deal.
If the elections of last fall are any
criterion. the country for the time
being has had enough Of reform.
There appears to be widespread
desire to settle back to normally"
There are indications everywhere,
despite the continued great personal
popularity of the President, of grow
ing dissatisfaction with the methods
OF the New Deal. There is the fac.
that the level of employment in the
last six years has been but slightly
raised.
No Other New Dealer Appears.
Could Mr. Roosevelt get the NOM
nation with the full support of his
party and its aflliates behind him,
he might reinvigorate the cause ne
represents. overcome all handicaps
and win the election. But he cannot
get the nomination on the only
terms on which he could win. One
must assume that he would like to
see an out-and-out New Dealer, a
candidate who would surely carry
forward the Roosevelt banner, nom
mated in his place. Where is the
man OF this type who could be both
nominated and elected? None has
appeared. It is the Carriers and the
Hulls and the Farleys who are head
Ing the popular polls, not the
Murphys and the Douglases.
A change may come, but the signs
point now to the election Of a Presi-
dent. whether Democratic or Re-
publican, OF the old-line variety. Or,
should Democrat of the Roosevelt
persuasion conceivably win, he can
hardly hope to enjoy such prestige
and power as Mr.. Roosevelt has had.
1t boils down to this: The next
President, probably conservative
or a middle of-the-roader, will face
a terrific task. Whichever way he
may go, right or left, resentments
Will pile up mountain high. He will
have to carry many of the burdens
imposed on the Treasury by the New
Deal without any compensating
cerdit In all human probability he
will have to raise taxes.
AT the end Of his four years the
stage will be set for the return of
Mr.. Roosevelt from Hyde Park.
In 1896 and again in 1900 the
Democrats had Bryan as their can
didate. Then in 1904 they tried the
conservative Parker. and he was
beaten worse than Bryan had ever
been. In 1908 they went back to
Bryan.
In 1914, after an interval Of four
years, they may go back to the
squire Of Hyde Park. And If Mr..
Roosevelt is elected and serves eight
years he will be, even at the end
Of that times a year short Of the
age-72-that Jack Garner will be in
1941.
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