Evening star., 1939-12-20

the seasonally
Charles G. Ross adjusted index
hgure on production was 124. or
within a point of the highest
monthly figure for the boom wear
of 1929.
industrial production, then, has
mace remarkable comeback from
the depression depths. The level
TO which it shot up after the out
oreak OF the European war re-
mained high throughout November
and the first half of December.
indeed, there was a three-point in
crease from October to November.
reLectlng sustained activity at a
period OF the year when a decline is
usual"
Broken down, the "a per cent
total increase for November over
the 1923-25 average represented a
81 per cent gain in the manufacture
OF durable goods, an 18 per cent
gain in the manufacture of nom
durable goods ga per cent for
manufacturing as a whole, and a
"a per cent gain in mineral produc-
ton.
What Report Shows.
Some of the high lights of the
report; Record production of steel
lngots continued in November. The
manufacture of automobiles in
creased, notwithstanding the fact
| that labor trouble kept the plants
OF one important company out of
commission. Settlement of the
dispute at the end of the month
was followed by a sharp rise in
assemblies. Retail sales of cars
were in large volume. Activity at
cotton and woolen mills was close
to the record levels of three years
ago. Rayon production made a
new high, though silk mills showed
a decline And so on. Decreases
IN some lines were swallowed up in
the general rise.
This is the bright side of the
picture. We are turning out manu-
factured goods at virtually the same
rate as in 1929 We are turing them
out at rate practically one-fourth
higher than in 1926.
Population Gain Part of Answer.
Why, then, the 5000 900 to 10000
900 workers who are unable to find
jobs in private industry?
The answer is twofold. It con-
slsts, first, in the fact that because
| OF population increase there is a net
annual gain in the labor supply of
around 100000 persons. Thus there
are 100000 more persons looking
for work than there were 10 years
ago. Obviously, if the new workers
coming into the market are to find
places in private industry, it is not
enough to get back to the produc-
ton level of 1929 it is necessary to
advance steadily beyond that level.
We must have constantly expand
ing industry.
But the growth of population ac-
counts only in part for the paradox
of an army of unemployed-an
army reduced only a couple of mil
lion from its peak-When produc-
ton is running as it is today.
We return to the graphic story
told by the reserve boards report.
Take two contrasting figures for
October, 1889 One is 121 per cent
and the other 1912 per cent. The
former shows a 21-point gain over
the years 1923-25. The latter shows
a gain of little over one point. The
first represents factory production
OF durable and non-durable goods.
The second represents the labor re-
qulred for this production.
That is to say, our factories are
turning out (aS Of OCTOBER 81 per
cent more goods than the average
for the years chosen for comparison,
and yet they are employing only
IL per cent more workers than the
average for those years.
Individual Output Gains.
In still other words. the produc-
tivity of the individual has so in
creased that only about 100 workers
are now needed for work that took,
roughly, 120 in 1923-25. Thus there
has been an increase of around 20
per cent in individual output during
the last decade and half.
The boards figures epitomize the
problem of what the economists call
chronological unemployment - the
displacement of workers by improve
ments which are constantly making
it possible to do more work with less
human effort. Year by year, science
and invention add cubits to the
workers stature. 1t is not only ma
chinery which is doing this; i'm
provement, all around, In factory
processes and management plays its
part.
The problem has been deepened
by the incentive which the depres-
sion has given to find new labor
saving devices. What the problem
is, and how it affects the national
economy, are clear. Mr.. Roosevelt
stated it admirably in a message to
Congress last spring. But where is
A