Evening star., 1939-10-22

CLAO4.
likely under present conditions to
make a virtue of necessity, and
the calling up of her reserves for
October 20 may be considered
merely as precautionary measure.
one incident to making the best
bargain she can for herself.
The long delayed and tortuous
negotiations which have been going
on between Bulgaria and her neigh
bors, looking to the entrance of
Bulgaria into the Balkan Entente
(now including Yugoslovia, Turkey,
Rumania and Greece may perhaps
recommend themselves to the more
favorable attention of the autnori-
ties at Sofia.
Yugoslav Army Highly Regarded.
Yugoslavia, in Sympathies wholly
pro-ally and anti German, has
taken a long step forward toward
national unity and therefore ma
tional strength by the resolution of
the long standing Serb-Croat dis
pute which has brought the Croat
leader, DR.. Matchek, into the cabi-
net as vice premier. The Yugoslav
army is highly regarded by all lin
cluding this writer) who have seen
1t and talked with its leaders. 1t is
the chief political force in the coun-
try. and the chief of staff, Gen.
Simovich, is one of the strongest, if
not the strongest individual leader
in Yugoslavia affairs. Nominally it
can mobilize Is divisions tprobably
II or 18) in addition to the Royal
Guard.
Like the Turkish army, the fight
ing material is excellent, the spirit
high, the leadership capable; though
amongst the senior general officers
there is noticeable the tendency
which I likewise observed amongst
Polish generals to indulge in wish
full thinking on the subject of the
effect of air forces and modern
mechanized equipment. However,
the Yugoslav terrain is far more
difficult than the Polish, and pre-
oCAAto Adl 4C0o 4dVOl dU1C
ties for a German "Blitzkrieg.'
The Yugoslav army has a good
deal of modern equipment; unfortu-
nately this is very diverse in its
nature, SO that ammunition supply
would present considerable Difficult
ties. The Yugoslav air force is
small, and largely manned by Croat-
ians and Slovenes, the Serb peasant
having shown little aptitude for me-
chanical pursuits.
Yugoslavia's military problem is
largely one Of supply and in the
larger sense, of access to outside
support. Alone she probably could
not Withstand a German attack for
very long. If supported by allies
her chances would be much brighter,
as the Yugoslav army is certainly
capable of putting orr a formidable
delaying campaign. Allowing for
the support of Greece, the port of
Salonlca would be open for allied re-
Inducements and munitions; but
the capacity Of the Salonica rail-
way to deliver these in SUFFICIENT
quantities is open to question. Tur-
key, however, by opening the Dar-
danelles, opens also additional routes
of supply via Istanbul and Con-
stanta which greatly improve the
Yugoslav position.
Italy May Be Decisive Factor.
Probably the decisive factor in
Yugoslav calculations would, how
ever, be the attitude of Italy, who
commands the Adriatic and has
contact with Yugoslavia, both in the
north and, via Albania, in the south.
Certainly the Turkish pact has given
Italy new reason for maintaining
her neutrality; for it closes definitely
against her the food and oil sup
plies of the Black Sea if she becomes
belligerent as an ally of Germany,
and immensely reinforces the allied
blockade of the Eastern Mediter-
ranean, while rendering quite hope
less the position of the italian out
posts in the Dodecanese.
AS for Rumania, she now has that
direct access to allied reinforcement
which was denied to Poland, besides
being in large measure relieved OF
any Bulgarian threat to her rear:
and while she may eventually have
to give Bessarabia to Soviet Russia,
the determination Of the latter to
bar German access to the Black Sea
via the valley Of the Danube is made
evident by her occupation Of the