Evening star., 1939-11-26
Sees Enduring Threat
to American Trade
By O,pen L. Scott.

OF Europe's war. Many business leaders
have voiced the fear that war orders
might produce a prosperity of the kind
that they do not want.
These leaders can have assurance
that their fears are largely unwarranted
Great Britain and France are seeing to
that. In fact, an astute and informed
member of that group of youthful off,
cials who have had so much influence
on Government policy in recent years
expresses the following opinion:
'The United States is going to be
fortunate if 1t does not find itself paying
an important part of the bill for Europe's
war"
This official, like many others, thinks
that the United States is going to be a
very real loser through the sale of its
labor and its raw materials and its pro-
ductive ability in exchange for mass
OF gold Of uncertain future value But
that Is not his only point. He is con-
vinced, too, that new policies are being
worked out abroad that will cost the
United States rather dearly in trade and
in the sacrifice of ideas that have been
promoted so painstakingly in recent
years.
The fact is that the whole program of
reciprocal trade agreements that Cordell
Hull, Secretary of State, has worked out
over the past five years now is shat
tered. The further fact is that Great
Britain and France-at the head of great
trading emplres-now are adopting to-
talitarian methods of carrying on busi-
ness and of controlling the use of their
money, with the result that the United
States is about to find itself frozen out
Of important markets.
Mr.. Hull and President Roosevelt have
struggled to restore a measure of freer
trade in the world. The Secretary of
State, as a conservative, has argued that
the alternative to freer trade was Gov
ernment control of business in this
country much more drastic than any
imposed by the New Deal.
In the hope of breaking down the
trend toward "autarchy," with its
planned control of industry and finance,
Mr. Hull and Mr. Roosevelt have re-
fused to do business with Germany or
Italy or Japan in making new trade
agreements, because those nations used
barter in making sales, used quotas in
buying and used control over money to
affect markets and to guide trade.
But war is only extending the German
methods to those major nations with
which this country has agreements
Britain, France and Canada
The result is likely in the end to be
quite painful to American businessmen.
British and French currencies now are
under rigid control. Purchases of
American and other goods are on a
strictly planned basis. Prices that the
British and French will pay for Ameri-
can goods are on take-it-or-leave-it
basis. Those governments are preparing
to promote the sale Of their surplus in
dustrial products on subsidized or
barter basis. Both nations are trying to
align the bulk of their trade to their en-
pires and are gearing their two empires
closely together.
In other words, the biggest single trad
ing area in the world is being put on
closed economy" basis, utilizing the les
son that Germany has learned with her
economic experiment
The United States is left rather alone
in the world, still hoping against hope
that other nations will become inter-
ested again in the idea of reciprocal
elimination of barriers to free world
trade.
Best informed of this Governments
officials say that there isn't chance for
this Governments present foreign trade
policies Their idea is that the United
States is pursuing an attitude that will
enable warning nations to play her for
a sucker again.
clue to what is going on can be had
from actual deals now being made.
The British are contracting for Cana
dian wheat and are not interested in
American wheat. The British, too, are
contracting for the Australian wool clip,
for the meat surplus of Argentina, for
the copper supply of South Africa, for
the lead and zinc supply of Canada.
Wherever possible, British and French
purchases are made in areas of the world
that might cut into German supplies.
Buying is by agents who are Scotch by
nature. There is none of the free-and-
easy spending of World War days, and,
if informed Government officials are
right, there will be none of this buying.
The end result is that American busi-
nessmen can give up any worry they may
have had over an inundation of war
orders that would create an embarrass-
ment of riches. War orders there are
and will be, but war orders on rather
moderate scale.
Underlying policies of the British, who
are acting for the allies in most Ameri-
can purchases. are these:
First, that preference shall be given to
empire goods. This means that where
possible, Canada and Australia and
South Africa and Latin American ma
tions that are in the sterling bloc will be
favored with orders.
Second, that export trade should be
maintained as far as possible in order
that France and Britain may not enrich
the United States by letting it grab Ger
man markets by default. The British
government even is urged to stress the
import of actual munitions of war in
order not to disrupt internal industry
more than necessary. The argument is