Evening star., 1939-10-20
Oil Supply Blockade
May Mean Germany
Will Strike Quickly
IS. and Dutch Indies
Furnished Over 500
Of Last Wears Imports
By FRANK SMOTHERS,

BY FRANK SMOTHERS.
Chicago Daily News Foreign Correspondent.
BERLIN, Oct. 20 (by radio) Ger
man oil and sources of its supply
henceforth loom today among the
greatest mysteries of the war, in the
opinion of neutral observers here.
Rumania and Russia and the pro-
duction of motor fuel within Ger
many, according to the Nazis, are
counted on to maintain the Reich's S
supply Large uncertainties, how
ever. clearly hang over the volume
of the total supply, henceforth.
When the war began a common
estimate among observers here was
that Germany had oil stores for one
year. Certain experts have esti-
mated that the Reich's wartime
needs are from 100000 to 10000, 900
tons annually-in other words, more
than double the average peace-time
consumption of recent years.
Actually, however, even If one
knew the total oil stored-and that
Is a secret-the length of time 1t
would last would be completely un-
known save by prophet with the
knowledge whether mechanized
forces will be used at full and
steady pitch on the western front,
whether the German air offensives
are to be huge or conservative, and
so forth. The same applies to the
Reich's big stores of munitions.
Time on Allies Side.
But the very fact that the allied
blockade so greatly limits Germany's S
power to replenish supplies and that
the allies have so much less to fear
from the passage of time would ap-
pear to presage, experts say, that
Germany will try to slash hard for
the coveted quick victory and thus
use her supplies rapidly.
What is certain, experts state, Is
that the cyclonic mechanical in
vasion of Poland cut deeply into the
oil stores with which Germany start
ed the war.
Last year Germany imported ap-
proximately 100000 tons of oil
products She produced at home
upward Of 100000 tons of motor
fuel, including synthetic gasoline
and benzol gasoline.
How drastically the Anglo-French
blockade has hit Germany's former
oil supply is revealed by the fact
that Dutch America (mainly Cura-
cao) and the United States were far
and away the largest purveyors Of
oils to Germany last year. OF the
gasoline and Diesel, crude, lubrica-
ton and residuary oils received by
Germany, Dutch America furnished
100000 tons and the United States
1,l73.000. Rumania provided only
slightly more than 100000 tons Of
those products, mainly gasoline, and
Russia less than 10000 tons.
Other Sources Lost Too.
Mexico, Iran and the Dutch East
indies were the other important
sources of supply. Like the Dutch
possessions in the Western Hemis-
phere and the United States. The
blockade cuts them off from Ger
many.
Today Germany counts on getting
all the oil possible from Rumania,
whose total petroleum production
has been running from $500 900 tons
TO 5000, 900 tons annually. But here
the transportation problem mot the
only one) is c. plicated.
Most of Rl.nania's oil exports to
Germany before the war came from
the port of Constantza via the sea.
The Allied blockade has stopped
that. Hitler must import Rumanian
oil and other products by rail and
the Danube. Large quantities of oil
are coming up the stream, but ex-
perts believe that river tankers suffl-
cient for importable Rumanian oil
are not available. The Danube
probably will be unnavigable this
winter. Germany's insufflciency of
rolling stock is one of the problems
here. Great efforts will certainly be
made to provide the necessary
transport-but at best Rumanian oil
will not be enough for long war.
Russian oil? Aside from the un-
known factor-does Stain want to
give much to Hitler?-These factors
loom:
Russian Exports Have Dropped.
Although three years ago Russian
exported some 100000 tons of oil
to the world, last year the figure
dropped to l,0Oo,O 900 tons. Supposing
Stain were willing to send that
much to Germany in the coming
year and transports were arranged,
it would amount to just about 20
per cent of Germany's "peace-time'
import ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
presumably far less than Germany
will need if Hitler fails to get his
'quick victory
Stain may increase last years
exports of oil. but his own mobiliza-
ton must limit those possibilities.
(copyright. 1899, Chicago Daily News 1ne)