Evening star., 1939-11-16
Observers al Hague
Think Fear Of j. ).
Stayed Killers Hand
Theory Is Advanced Thot
Involvement Was Seen
Over Eust Indies
By ROBERT J.'CASEY,

BY ROBERT J.'CASEY,
Chicago Daily News Foreign Correspondent
THE HAGUE. Nov. 16.-That
Fuhrer Adolf Hitler must strike
within six months or find his great
army immobilized, and that existing
sentiments between the United
States and Japan held up his
prospective invasion of Holland,
were two aspects of information
being circulated via neutral observ-
ers here today. There were reports,
which experts seem to credit, that
Russian friendship for the Nazis
cannot be translated into terms Of
gasoline and that Germany's re-
serves are running low. And there
is a report, a bit more nebulous,
that Der Fuehrer's generals foresee
fine row in the Far East If the
Dutch are cut off from their COL
onies.
One finds it easy to accept the
story about the oil. for even in
peacetime The Hague has been the
headquarters of most amazing in
telligence service for the petroleum
industry. There are dozens of men
hereahouts who could always tell
you within few barrels Just how
much any nation is producing or
consuming. 1t is the home town
OF the Royal Dutch Shell Oil Co..
the second largest organization of
ltsskind IN the world, and oil has
been the greatest single factor of
Hollands political and economic life
for many years.
Uses 100000 Tons Yearly.
Figures as they filter out of Berlin
are these:
Germany's nomal peacetime con-
sumption Of oil is 100000 tons a
year, virtually all of which had to
pe obtained outside the sphere of
Nazi influence. At the beginning of
the war, experts estimate, Ger
many's reserves totaled 5000, 900
tons. Synthetic production ac-
counted for another 100000 tons.
1t was believed that the Russian
alliance would open new source of
supply, but the coy attitude of the
Russians has persisted. The Rus
SLAMS are operating strictly on a
cash-and-carry basis, with emphasis
on the carry. The transport of oil
from Russian fields to Germany is a
matter OF long river haulage, with
no adequate service. Because of the
shallow condition of such rivers as
the Danube, it would be necessary to
use small, shallow tankers, of which
there are only few in the world.
OH men here figure that a fleet big
enough to supply normal needs Of
the Nazis would total nearly 10000
boats, all of which would have to be
built for the job.
Pointing out that the building
and operation of even 1000 such
tankers would be impossible, ex-
perts believe that Hitler could hope
TO get from Russia and Rumania
about 100000 tons a year. This,
added to his 3,5O0,O00 tons of re-
serves. still leaves him 5000, 900
tons short of his peace-time re-
quirements, and it becomes obvious
that he must do something about it
within the next few months or put
his motorized divisions back into
the garage.
Believed Bar to Big Push.
Oil is also the principal factor in
the situation which thousands of
Hollanders believe will be response
BILE for not starting the big push.
This conclusion is a bit more COM
plicated.
Hollands wealth has come largely
from the Dutch East Indies-Su-
matra, Java, Borneo, New Guinea
and the Dutch East Indies, in addi-
ton to coffee, rubber, cotton, in
digo, rice, kapok, gold, silver and
tin, produce somewhere around
5000, 900 tons of oil a year.
The Dutch always have been on
friendly terms with the British,
whose great naval base at Singapore
Is little more than an easy swim
from the largest refinery in Sumatra.
| Duo A0AA6 bOAO1S uOW t1lcy have
looked uneasily upon Japan's pro-
gram Of expansion with full cog
nizance of Japan's need for oil.
Hereabouts one cannot find a single
voice to deny that the invasion of
Holland would be an immediate in
vitation to the Japanese to take
over the Dutch Indies. And that Is
where the United States comes in.
On what basis, one cannot know,
but there is general belief in Hol-
land that Hitler held his hand
last Saturday because he believed
that in such event America would
be forced to forestau Japan and thus
become involved willy-nilly as an
active participant in the war-not O
wen-documented theory, perhaps,
but interesting. And when you look
out across the barbed wire and
water defenses" toward the silent
German Rhine on the southern
frontier, you do not have any trouble
believing It.
Y ~