Evening star., 1939-01-01
Farm Hopes for 1889 Rest
On All i. S., Says Wallace
Regulatory Machinery Must Be Geared to Other
Activities Increased National Income
Held Principal Need
By Henry A.. Wallace,
Secretary Of Agriculture.

what Americas farmers may look
tOrtDard to In 1889 In their efforts,
1Dith Government aid, to reach the
goal of balanced production and dis
tribution IS discussed here in an
article 1Dritten by the Secretary OF
Agriculture exclusively for The Star
and the North american Newspaper
Alliance.)
For agriculture, the year 1898 has
marked milestone-the beginning of
a longtime farm program Of orderly
production and marketing
This longtime program is built on the
foundation of the emergency adjust
ment program of 1933-1935 and the soil
conservation program of 1867.
What does the year 1899 hold in store?
Farmers look forward to 1899, if not
with unquestioning confidence, at least
with strong hopes.
Looking abroad, their hopes are di-
rected first toward the meeting at Lon
don in January Of the Wheat Advisory
Committee, which will give serious con-
sideration to the possibility of working
out an effective world wheat agreement.
II the various Wheat-exporting and
wheat-importing countries can get to-
gether, the world wheat market can be
strengthened with benefit to wheat pro-
ducers the world over-our own included.
International Outlook Dark.
Aside from the prospects of a really
effective wheat agreement, our farmers
face an international trade situation
that is not too encouraging. The British
trade agreement has marked sub
stantial gain. But there also have been
losses in farm exports-particularly in
exports of cotton-caused by the various
wars and threats of war, and the shifts
in world trade resulting from the barter
arrangements of the totalitarian coun-
tries.
Viewing the scene at home, farmers
look hopefully toward industry. Will
the example set by farmers in putting
their production and marketing on
more orderly basis be followed by busi-
ness and labor?
Farmers feel that in their own farm
program they have made an important
contribution toward the building of
national economic machine geared to
produce and distribute in abundance the
goods and services needed and desired
by all our people. They feel that their
program was an important factor in
holding farm cash income this year at
level of $500, 900 00O-almost as great
as their income in 1886, nearly twice as
great as their income in 1882, and only
II per cent below their 1887 income.
They feel that the maintenance Of
farm income was a strong factor in
stopping the 1878 depression and set
ting into motion once more the currents
Of recovery.
Farm income is not yet what it ought
to be. To attain further progress, the
farmers themselves can do a great deal
in 1899 by taking full advantage of the
machinery Congress has provided. This
machinery will be available to the pro-
ducers of all farm crops for the first
time in 1899. But no matter how earn
estly the farm problem is tackled by
farmers, it cannot be entirely solved on
the farm. To an important extent,
farmers must look to an increase in the
national income to bring farm income
up to the level that would insure a
prosperous agriculture. We cannot
dodge the fact that our agricultural
economy cannot be completely healthy
as long as the national economy is ailing.
Problem Not Easily Solved.
The cure for what ails our national
economy can be summed up in the
words: Balanced production and distri-
oution-less production of the things
that are not needed or desired, more
production of the things that are needed
and desired. But the cure is not so SIM
pie as those simple words might indi-
cate. The cure involves numerous ad-
justments throughout our business ma
chine to get it to humming properly.
Our national economy will not be in
a completely healthy state until national
income rises to the neighborhood of
sl0o ooo,00oooo. In 1929 our income was
around $4,000 100000. In 1882 it had
fallen to $4,000 100000 BY 1897 it had
come back up to $4,000 100000 In 1898
it was around S65 900 100000 and from
all indications it is again on the rise.
OF course, we cannot expect more than a
moderate gain in 1899 I mention the
100000, 900, 900 figure simply to indicate
the goal we should try to reach in the
next few years.
What shall we do to get the balanced
production and distribution that we
need?
In agriculture there is chronic
tendency to produce too much wheat, too
much cotton. These are commodities
which were exported in great quantity
before the war-when we were debtor
nation and Europe was glad to take our
wheat and cotton in payment for the
capital goods we had bought from Eu-
rope.
Now, with the United States creditor
nation and with world trade conditions
entirely different, we cannot sell more
than fraction of the wheat and cotton
we are able to produce. No matter how
hard we try, we cannot find markets for
our surplus. The amounts that foreign
countries will buy are limited.
Wheat Carryover Unavoidable.
Some people say that the surplus could
be used at home. But in the case of
wheat, in spite of all our efforts to make
sure that every hungry mouth in the
United States is fed with all the bread
-X.y