Evening star., 1939-07-20

ton will be felt hSS'sS'S''
in the switching David Lawrence.
of peacetime trade which otherwise
might have gone to the United
States.
European governments have been
waiting to see whether in the event
Of war they could depend on the
United States, not for troops or
naval aid. but for war supplies. The
fact that President Roosevelt and
Secretary Hull wanted the laws re-
vised has caused the European gov
ernmentS to await the outcome of
the present session. Now in self
protection they must begin to make
plans for the manufacture of articles
which will be needed in wartime
as they cannot any longer depend
on the United States.
The business affected is not mere
ly that which might be shut off if
the present neutrality law is not
revised, but other articles of COM
merce which are vital to European
democracies. Thus trade will nat
urally go to South American coun-
tries and other parts of the world
forthcoming that in the event of
war there will be no interruption.
Canada to Build Factories.
Perhaps the biggest single change
In the commercial situation will be
with respect to Canada, where prep
arations probably will be made soon
to build certain factories for the
assembling of the very war materials
which the action of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee would
not bar from shipment.
Thus American businessmen will
see their opportunities for manu-
featuring certain products pass to
Canada and other countries. This
so-called war trade is supposed to
have been the cause of American
participation in the last war, so it
will be contended by the isolationists
that it is better to lose the money
than to involve American boys in
foreign war.
But the other side of that argu-
ment is that not only will trade in
wartime articles be lost, but also
certain peacetime commerce. Like
wise the belief of the allied govern
ments abroad is that there will be no
war if they can be fully prepared
now and if they can make it known
to the Germans and Italians that a
steady stream of supplies will be
available. Spokesman for England
and France insist that no troops will
be needed from this hemisphere and
that the airplane will decide the
issue.
In order to demonstrate that the
supplies will be forthcoming, it will
be necessary for Great Britain and
France to make arrangements with
countries other than the United
States. Argentina. for example, is
said to be ready to develop some light
manufacturing industries which can
play a part in the making of war
time necessities To be assured, how
ever, that their capital will not be
lost on plants built for war purposes,
businessmen of other countries will
demand a share of the normal trade.
1t is at this point that Europeans
will begin to switch business.
Favor Steady Flow.
Just what effect this may have on
the delivery of airplane parts or on
the setting up of new airplane fac
tories across the Canadian border is
difficult to say at this time, but that
some change in the whole war trade
setup, including peacetime trade,
is coming seems apparent. World
trade is a big factor in economic re-
covery, and nations like the United
States which cannot be depended
upon to keep the necessary supplies
going in wartime will hardly expect
to be favored as against countries
which can assure constant flow of
goods both in wartime and in peace
time.
The Republican party in Congress
has been most active in blocking
action on the neutrality law re-
vision at this session and it cannot
be contended in this instance that
the Republicans have been acting
at the behest of the business inter-
ests of the country. The theory be-
hind the Republican attack has been
that they could convince the coun-
try Mr.. Roosevelt and Mr.. Hull want
to drag America into a foreign war,
and that to agree to sell arms dur
Ing a war would mean American
participation. The President and
the Secretary of State, on the other
hand, take the view that if war
comes, the Senate's indifference may
prove to have been an encourage
ment to Hitler and Mussolini. and
that passage of the Hull program
at this session of Congress might
have prevented European war.
The issue will be taken to the
country by the President as pre-
dicted in these dispatches earlier
this week. Again Mr.. Roosevelt has
been handed campaign opportu-
nifty on platter by the Republican
minority and. incidentally, the New
Deal has been given campaign ma
terial on how the isolationist Sena-