Evening star., 1939-11-20

may record that passage of the en-
barge repeal marked a turning point
on the diplomatic or psychology
front. There can be little doubt
that part of the German strategy
was based on the assumption that
the work done in behalf of an Amer
lean embargo in the last two years
would not be upset and that the
allies would not be able to count on
a replenishing supply of airplanes
If German attack became intense.
Today the go-ahead signal for
American supplies means an endless
stream of materials for the allies.
The leaders of Germany's army and
economic machine know the futility
Of a prolonged fight. There is talk
now Of dissension in the ranks at
Berlin, while London talks hopefully
OF an early peace, possibly before
another year.
Certainly since the passage of
embargo repeal, the feeling here
has been distinctly in the direction
OF a shortened war Most Ameri-
cans have believed that the end of
the war might come through in
ternal revolution in Germany and
the overthrow of Hitler. This is,
to be sure, typical of the wishful
thinking on the allied side because
Germany is doubtless united patri-
otically much more in war than
peacetime
But the economic factors which
caused Germany's defeat in the last
war may force an early peace con-
ference without an internal revolu-
ton. In other words, Germany may
bring about an end of the war by
evolution and peaceful transition
from a government which the allies
say they cannot meet at the peace
table to one they can meet.
An Early Peace.
The most important element in
the whole situation is economic. The
shortage of gasoline needed for air.
planes, the gradual breakdown of
the submarine warfare and the en-
forcement of the economic blockade
by strict rationing of supplies con-
signed to neutral states contiguous
to Germany are big influences in the
councils of the German high COM
mand nowadays. If the war was
to be won by Germany, it has all
along been believed here it would
have to be by a series of quick
strokes, the opportunity for the sue
cess of which seems to have dimin-
ished with the increased allied
preparations.
The allies have an abundance of
credit and materials with a store
house and arsenal of supplies in
Canada and the United States. Ger
many has only a limited supply of
fuel for her airplanes and subma-
rines both of which in time will be
conquered by the allies because they
have not only the fuel but the re-
placements, too. Herr Hitler led the
German Army into the war on the
theory that he could force an early
peace. His strategy has failed.
Somebody else-perhaps group of
army chiefs-may make German
policy hereafter, even though Hit
Ter continues on the scene. So far
as the allies are concerned, they
will make peace with a government
In Berlin which they feel will live
up to its agreements and it is doubt
full whether the mere presence of
Herr Hitler as flgurehead in the
future scene will make any differ
ence, despite all the denunciation of
Hitler. 1t will be noted that Lon
don spokesmen constantly speak of
"Hitlerism" rather than Hitler.
Thoughts Return Home.
AS prospects for peace loom up,
prospects of American participation
become even less and less a po-
litical issue. Already the Gallup
poll shows three-point rise in Re-
publican stock in the last month,
indicating clearly that with the dis
appearance of war tension, whipped
into fever heat by the Republicans
themselves in the neutrality fight,
the country goes back to normal
divisions on domestic issues.
If by chance the war is over be-
fore the 1910 campaign begins in
America, the Democratic orators will
not fail to argue that the embargo
repeal, so vigorously fought by the
Republicans, really brought peace.