Evening star., 1939-02-14

S s'SSASSS - W
Stoke; France Seen
Holding Key to Peace
BY PERTINAX.
PARIS, Feb. IA (By wireless) -
Let us try to summarize the con-
fusing diplomatic situation.
In the first place, the French and
British governments are now de-
termined to do everything in their
power to drive wedge between Gen.
Franco and his Italian and Ger
man associates,
Prime Minister Chamberlain Of
England has always justified his
policy Of non-intervention in the
Spanish civil war by the following
argument. The time Of action will
come for France and England once
the Nationalist cause has won in
Spain. Then italy rill be deprived
Of the anti-Bolshevik pretext she
fuses to maintain in Spain her ex-
peditionary forces, and Franco,
having defeated the Spanish re-
public. will naturally strive to free
himself from the embrace Of the
totalitarian states, from which he
Will not require any more active
support. Only If he gets rid of his
totalitarian partners will he be TN
. position to fally around himself
the majority Of Spaniards, who
resent foreign intrusion more and
more.
Feels Prestige Is At Stake.
Such was the thesis that Cham
berlain explained on countless oc-
casions, adding that, if his expecta-
tion did not come true and the
Fascists and Nazis remained in
Spain after the Spanish republic
had been overwhelmed, he would
not hesitate to resort to force to re-
establish the former Mediterranean
equilibrium.
1t Is thus no wonder that, fol-
lowing upon the disaster to the re-
publican armies, as that policy of his
Is being put to decisive test
Chamberlain should attempt every
thing that can make it successful
He feels that his prestige and au-
thority are at stake.
Frances Premier Daladier and
Foreign Minister Bonnet, in defer
! thu vy;c ~
anti-Socialist majority, are now as
eager as Chamberlain to throw
themselves body and soul into tina,
venture. The Spanish republic has
been practically abandoned and il
is about to be agreed in principle
that the nationalist regime will b
officially recognized at the frs,
suitable opportunity. Some adviser.
have insisted that the act of rec.
ognition ought to be subordinatec
to the withdrawal of German anc
Italian troops. They have beer
ovsrruled and the foreign ofics
would be still mdSe opposed thar
the Quai d'Orsay to adoption o1
that procedure.
| Franco Holds Key.
1t is very difncult to forecast abou
the success or failure that will at.
tend the Franco-British Initiatives
The issue will be settled by the per.
sonal disposition of Gen. France
and by the amount of pressure Mus
solinl and Hitler are in q position t<
bring to bear upon him. Fur q week
they will have been urging him t
join the anti -comintern pact. 1t il
not believed here that 50 far he Ia!
committed himself.
Franco may be expected to eour
French favor for the sake of recuper.
ating the gold reserve of the Spanish
Central Bank, and, once he has Oh.
tanned it, to be all too willing to con.
firm his connection with Rome ane
Berlin. Alternatively, he may dreae
to transform the western nations
which can control the Spanish sea.
boards, into active enemies. Onl,
future developments will enhghter
us about what he has in mindd
Doubt is bound to persist for some
time.
The other main feature of in.
ternational affairs, as they can b.
surveyed today. is that a certain
obvious hesitation can be detected
in Italy's attitude. The ferociou!
press campaign is still being lee
against France, even with growinl
intensity, but days and weeks rol
by and yet the Fascist government
keeps on postponing ofncial defini.
tion and submission Of its claim!
upon the French government. That
hesitation is generally accounted
for by Chamberlain's statement IL
the House of Commons on February
6 about Franco-Briti solidarity
and by the phrases President Roose.
velt was reported to have uttered
to the Military Affairs Committee Of
the Senate a fortnight ago.
Without any exaggeration what.
ever, it can be asserted that Presi.
dent Roosevelt's warning, although
it was toned down by subsequent
corrections, has caused the disnissa
of Yugoslavia' Premier Stoyadino-
witch. Among the Yugoslav peas
ants the word went round that tn.
three great democracies of the work
were now practically in . clos
alliance and would stand or fal
together. The effect was ire.
mendous and Prince Paul, the re
gent, had to change the cabinet.
Peace Rests With France.
| As already indicated In this cor.
respondence, the cause Of peace de.
| pends, on the whole, upon the
firmness of the French government
and the unanimity of the public
opinion at its back. Outwardly Da-
Ladder and Bonnet do not finch
and stick to their drastic refusa
to transfer = single inch Of French
territory to Italy.
But, Notwithstanding the denials
issued last week, the evidence car
hardly be ignored that M. Beaudoin
head Of the Bank Of Indo- Chins
| ond friona of N nnnrnf u,ho cpoy,t