Evening star., 1939-03-19
Reich and Japan Plan No Move
On Soviet Soon, Capital Hears
Attack Would Engage Forces for Long Time and
Tax Resources to Limit; No Real
Advantage Offered
By Constantine Browu.

DV u OVSIUI
Neither Germany nor Japan will en-
deavor to acquire portions of Russian
territory in the near future. The axis, at
present, is bent on obtaining reshuf1ling
Of the colonial empires and will spare
neither effort nor bluff to force the
owners of vast territories, containing
coveted raw materials, to share them with
Japan, Italy and Germany.
These reports, from usually we'll
informed sources, have been received
during the week end in Washington, and
partially explain Premier Chamberlain's
reversal on the desirability of summon
Ing limitation of arms conference in
the near future. Only 10 days before the
British Premier publicly voiced this de-
sire. he had told members of the House
of Commons the summoning of such a
conference, even with the participation
of the United States, would be fatal
mistake, since the nations are not yet
willing to lay down their arms.
The leaders of the axis are realists.
Furthermore, the axis cannot afford to
work selfishly; it must satisfy the desires
Of each of its component parts. Hitler,
since March H. 1898, has annexed to the
Reich territories with a population of
millions of persons. Japan has con-
tinued its conquest of China, while Italy
has been holding the bag making finan-
cial and human sacrifices to clinch
Frances victory in Spain, and reaping no
tangible rewards. Mussolini must show
something for his money, and a cam
paign against the Ukraine and Siberia,
even if it terminated with the collapse of
the Soviet Union, would produce nothing
Of value for the Italians. On the con-
trary, the grumbling of the people would
grow louder because they will see their
associates expanding in every direction,
while 1taly's place in the sun will remain
as restricted as it is today.
Would Tax Resources to Limit.
This is the first consideration which
has impelled the German and the Japa-
nese governments to keep the Soviets
guessing while their real efforts are dl-
rected elsewhere. A second, and prob
ably more important, reason is that Hit
Ter and the Toxic leaders are aware that
an attack on Russia will engage their
forces for long time. Regardless of the
alleged weakness of Soviet military pow
er, campaign in Siberia and in the
Ukraine would tax the military resources
OF both relationships to the limit. The
Japanese are now having an unpleasant
dress rehearsal in China. Their armies
60 from victory to victory, but the CAM
paign against Chang Kai-shek is far
from ended. This situation will be in
tensif1ed in Russian campaign. While
1t is true that the Russian forces are not
serious offensive threat, they are pow-
er1ul IN aviation, have plenty of raw ma
terlals and siZable number of indus
trial plants to manufacture the necessary
equipment for a defensive war; And
while the German and the Japanese
armies are engulfed in the Siberian
wastes and in the plains of the Ukraine
the countries of the West will get better
prepared every day. When such a war Is
ended both Japan and Germany would
be so weakened that instead of debating
they will be in position to receive die
tation from the British and the French.
The third reason why the Axis has
decided to leave the Soviets alone, for
the time being at least, is that Russia
at present offers no real advantage to
them
True, the plains of the Ukraine, the
Kuban and DonetZ basins, and the Cau-
casus offer riches which the Reich
needs sorely. But their conquest cannot
offset the political disadvantages which
the German leaders fear The possess
sion Of Siberia offers little to the jap
anese compared with what Indo-China
and the Dutch East Indies can yield.
Siberia has only two tempting things
the port of Vladivostok to be used in
winter months by Manchukuo, and some
gold mines requiring technical skill of
the first order for profitable develop
ment. 1t has no oil, on which Japanese
Industry is wholly dependent, and the
climate Is not one which Japanese
settlers can stand with ease.
More difficult to Handle.
Finally, even in the opinion of the
Germans, the Russians are more diff
cult to handle as subject population
than the Negroes in the African colonies.
The conquest of Southern Russia will re-
quire vast military effort even if a war
is terminated VIGOROUSLY. The Senga-
lese or other tribes in East Africa could
be managed with a handful of military
police.
Japan sees the situation from the
same angle. In Siberia several million
Russians will have to be kept in submis-
sion by strong permanent force of
occupation, whereas the population of
1ndo- China and the Dutch East Indies
has some affinity with the Japanese.
These people would accept the domina-
ton of yellow race, like themselves,
with the same fatalism with which they
have accepted for several decades that
Of the whites.
While the policy of the Axis, especially
that of the Reich, is well defined and
not easily subject to changes-the his
torical facts Of the last i've years have