Evening star., 1939-05-26

Charles g. Ross. acle which hard
ly any informed person thinks will
have counterpart in the next CAM
paign.
1t is the theory of the Democratic
high command that the party can
suffer severe losses elsewhere and
still win with the electoral votes Of
New York and those of the West and
the South. Solid support Is expected
from those two sections. With New
York, say the party strategists, the
Democrats can lose Illinois and still
ride to victory. They do not, of
course, concede the loss of Illinois,
and there is no reason why they
should; in well-posted, impartial
opinion here, Illinois is today toss
up between the two parties.
New York is the pivotal State, and
the head men among the Democrats
so describe it in their candid
moments. Any combination of
States purporting to show that the
Democrats can win without New
York may be put down as wishful
thinking.
Prime Test of Candidate.
What does this situation mean in
terms of the Democratic nomina-
ton for President? 1t means that
in the minds of those who are con-
cerned primarily with seeing the
party maintained in power-with
party success rather than victory for
this or that economic policy-the
prime test to which any candidate
should be subjected is simply this:
Can he carry New York?
This Is the test which they hope
will be uppermost in the minds of
the delegates who will pick the can
didate. There is ground 70 believe
that the hope will be realized, for
| the delegates in the main will con.
/ sist OF persons with a bread-and.
| butter interest in keeping the DEM
ocrats in power.
Now all prophecies as tn the
Democratic convention-beyond this
one as to its composition-are dan
gerous at this stage, but it's fair
guess that three men will enter the
convention with, among them,
majority of the delegates. These
three are Vice President Garner,
Secretary of State Hull and Ma.
tional Chairman Farley. Whatever
may be the popular support for
other men, such as Hopkins, Nc
Mutt, Murphy, Stark, Justice Reed
and so on, it is likely that the early
balloting will show Garner, Hull
and Farley well out in front. For
the purposes of this analysis. Mr.,
Roosevelt, for the moment, is being
left out of the picture)
May Get Together.
MessrS. Garner, Farley and Hull,
then, can do one of two things,
They can get together, pool their
strength and bring about the early
nomination either of one of them.
selves or of an outsider, or they
can permit the balloting to go on
without decision until differences
have hardened into feuds and the
nomination has become, as it did
under comparable circumstances in
1924, worthless.
It's fair guess, again, that Messrs.
Garner, Farley and Hull, being all
practical men and all regular"
Democrats, will get together in the
interest of party harmony-or what
ever semblance of harmony can be
salvaged out of the deep conflict in
the party over economic issues-and
effect an early decision. There are
astute men in the party who be-
lleve they will choose one of them
selves-but that's getting into the
realm of too-hazardous prophecy.
Roosevelt UnpredictabIe.
All calculations will be upset, of
course, if Mr.. Roosevelt, either on
his own initiative or in response to
a draft" movement, comes into the
race. 1t can only be repeated that
nobody knows what he will do.
There are really three Mr.. Roose-
velts. There is Mr.. Roosevelt the
idealist. There is Mr.. Roosevelt the
highly practical politician. There
is Mr.. Roosevelt the incarnation of
Dutch stubbornness. In each of the
three phases he is unpredictable.
All prophecy had better rest, for
the time being, on the decisive part
that New York will play in the elec-
ton. That will remain a safe FORE
cast no matter who may become the
Democratic nominee.