Imperial Valley press., 1939-10-19
By ROGER BABSON

SAN ERANC1SCO, OSt. 4S.-444S
first result of the war to be noticed
on the Pacific ocean is the big in
crease in activity along the COM
merce lanes. The European war
has hog-tied three of the leading
trading nations OF the world. Japan
and the United States are falling
heir TO most of Germanys world
commerce. Moreover. with England
and France hardly able to hold
their present trade, the United
States and Japan will get the lions
share Of the immense increase in
world commerce which any extend
ed European war inevitably means.
Americas Merchant Marine, now
second largest in the world, will en-
10Y its busiest days since 1920.
The richest commercial prize that
+. Germany's lack OF sea-power has
forced her to give up her trade with
Latin America. As I see it, the only
obstacle to a boom in our trade
with South American nations is the
iack OF buying power OF these coun-
tries. Our difficulty is 10 find addi-
tional products which We can take
from South America in exchange for
our manufactured goods. Wool
/ hides. nitrates. and coffee can be
/ imported. of course. But Latin Am
erica's principal surplusSes are cop
/ per. OIL and farm products. These
We Go not need. The riddle will
/ be partially solved by our selling
manufactured goods TO South Am
/ erica. carrying her food products to
Europe and bringing back such
things as glassware, olive oil. linen
and china.
Europe to Pay Cash
Europe must increase her use Of
South American food She will have
to pay for it in cash rather than
by barter method Of the past few
years. This additional cash should
help TO solve South Americas s prob
lem Of finding the necessary buy
ing power to purchase American
/ goods Moreover, the United States
will probably contribute substantial
/ ly by extending additional credits
70 South America through our Ex-
port-Import bank. We have already
granted substantial credits TO Bra
I'll and other Latin American coun-
tries
Biggest gain in our world COM
merce will be in our manufactured
I goods. These we're the type of goods
that Germany was selling in South
+ America and in other parts of the
world Japan and the United States
viii grab most Of Germanys and
. some Of Frances and Britain's for
mer trade in such products as cut
lery, bicycles. railroad equipment,
I chemicals, machinery, high grade
textiles, and the like. We should
have the upper hand over Japan,
particularly in the case of the most
highly-specialized manufactures be-
cause Japans products ere cheap
in quality and narrow in range Of
/ selection With the present lineup
Of beIigerents, I cannot, however
see any immediate big increases
il our exports of farm products
not even cotton.
Shipyards at Capacity
Our seaports-particularly along
the Gulf-Will see great activity
Shipyards, already busy in turning
out war-ships. will be pushed tc
capacity in the building of new
cargo boats Furthermore, if the
neutrality act is amended, much o.
the world trade going 10 neutra
nations will be carried in American
. boats. The German and British
navies will know that American
ships will not be carrying even (
, loaf Of bread to the beligerent ma
tions. Shippers will like this add
tional safety OF our vessels and vii
, find the resulting low war risk in
] surance on American ships attrac
] tive. Hence, busy days are aheat
, for the American Merchant Mar
me ! doubt however. II this actiy,