Evening star., 1939-10-15
Economist AnoIyzes
Effects of War
BIZ Owen L. Scott.

6Coo otoA eCO, 40 tAAAc.
What would become Of European
civilization after long war? Is Europe
going to slip back into chaos, with revo-
luton as an inevitable aftermath? Can
the warning countries ever regain the
standards of living that have been main-
tanned In peacetime?
The common inn preston is that war
return to the Dark Ages.
This impression, however, cannot be
supported in the opinion of the London
Economist, a conservative British pub
lication that is standard in the field of
economics. The Economist, in address,
ing British businessmen at the start of
war, says that there is no subject more
colored by emotionalism and less treated
with reason than that of wars after
math.
The publication then goes on to make
the following points, that may go far to
clear the thinking of this country.
First Of all, war can permanently i'm
poverish country only to the extent
that it harms its power to produce. A
destructive war kills people and destroys
productive equipment and to that extent
leaves people poorer. But, says the
Economist, there Is nothing in the record
of the last war or in experience since
that supports conclusion that the new
war will destroy more physical equip
ment than can be produced by one or
two years effort In peacetime.
Next, war tends to dissipate foreign
assets of a nation and to upset foreign
trade for the countries engaged and
thereby causes loss that can be serious
in peacetime. British are particularly
vulnerable at this point.
In the third place, undoubtedly war
would generate unpredictable turmoil, In
which many Of the characteristics Of
moneyed society might well vanish"
But, the economist goes on to say, those
who fear anarchy "can console them
selves with the reflection that the world
has never known bloody revolution (as
distinct from mere change of admins
tration by constitutional means) except
when two conditions were present
severe and long-standing class injustice
and a well-entrenched revolutionary
party. Neither is present In Britain"
Fourth, the tide of state control,
once advanced, does not recede, but
ito prophecy either Communism or
Fascism is baseless hysteria." The con-
servative British publication adds that
war is undoubtedly bad in its effects
for those whose interests are securely
vested in the pre-existing social order"
1t finds, however, that war tends to
speed up social progress.
The analysis concludes:
1T would be obvious folly to carry this
train of thought SO far as to suggest
that. in the balance sheet Of war, the
assets exceed, or even equal. the debts.
the anguish and the heartbreak and the
destruction of war while it lasts are such
that nothing can ever wipe them out"
Here. then, is the analysis Of the ef-
fects of war by conservative and an
authoritative source. Its conclusions do
not suggest an end to civilization as the
aftermath to modern war. The Econ
Olll1oO AlllQo tlldt CAAClC 40 AAO a. AAtAAAOeASaA
basis to suppose that Germany can so far
destroy the productive machinery of
Great Britain as to make the future ap-
pear dark.
This British analysis, applied to the
United States, suggests the following:
First, that Of all major nations, the
United States in war would be least
likely to suffer economic disaster, owing
to the difficulty that any enemy would
have in destroying this Nations pro-
ductive machinery.
Second, that American businessmen
are right in their instinct to oppose war.
The publication that is accepted as
standard authority for British business
men advises those businessmen that
their society may very well be damaged
beyond repair by the requirements Of
war.
In wartime, the state takes over a
broad field of control, and, after the war,
does not give up all of that control.
Today's New Deal is the merest sample
of the experience that wartime would
provide. Likewise, the state in wartime
faces the problem of finance, and that
problem vitality involves the groups with
money.
One look at the latest British taxes
can give American businessmen an un-
derstanding of what are the financial
demands Of modern war, and an under
standing of why those demands can
readily upset the existing system of pri-
vate finance.
The British are starting out with the
intention of paying for about half of the
governments wartime operating cost.
In order to pay this half, British tax
payers must contribute about $4,000 00O,-
600, or the equivalent of $4,000 900, 900
in the United States. In order to raise
that amount, Britain is imposing a base
tax of 371a per cent on individuals and
corporations.
X X kk
An unmarried individual with $3.50 of
income must pay an income tax. A Brit
ish unmarried individual with $4,000 Of
income must pay Is per cent of that in
come, or $1,000, to the government. An
American with the same income would
pay 500. A British taxpayer with $780,
600 Of income must pay $500 900 to the
government. An American taxpayer
with the same income would pay $3.50 900.
A British taxpayer with $4,000 income
must pay $4,000 to the government,
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