Evening star., 1939-06-18
American Interests
Indirectly Involved
In 1ientsin Dispute
Blockade Is Regarded os
Prelude to Attack on
ExtroterritorioIty
BY JOSEPH H. BAIRD.

SAtJUtcIIItOIIOI
BY JOSEPH H. BAIRD.
While American interests are not
involved directly In the present
japanese blockade Of the British
concession in Tientsin, ofilcial OBJ
servers here view it as the prologue
to a major Nipponese effort to end
all foreign extraterritorial rights
including those of the United States
throughout Chinas vast domain.
Reports to the State Department
and other governmental agencies
paint somber picture Of Britain's
latest Far Eastern problem. 1t ap-
pears to be one which London can
solve only by one of two courses:
l. Bluff1ng Japan at its own game
by showing willingness to wage war
If need be in protection Of its in
terests.
2. Accepting the best "face-saving
terms possible to end the present i'm
passe, and this, naturally. means
yielding at least in part to the Japa-
nese demands.
Britain Preoccupied in Europe.
Because of Londons necessarily
intense preoccupation in the dan
gerous game it is being forced to
play against the "axis powers" in
Europe, informed judgment here is
that the British foreign Office likely
will instruct its representatives in
China to make the best terms posi-
BILE with the japanese and so termi-
nate the present deadlock. Needless
to say, that would be, from the
American viewpoint, most unsatis-
factory solution of the matter.
If the japanese succeed in carry
Ing their point at Tientsin, it nat
urally strengthens their hand for
future attempts to control the vast
International Settlement at Shang-
hal. Yet there is most sympa-
thetic understanding here of the
hard-pressed position in which the
British find themselves.
For II the British challenge Japan
and so become involved in a Far
Eastern war, there is little doubt in
American official minds that their
predicament would be seized on by
Germany and Italy to push forward
toward their remaining goals in the
European sphere.
Russia Could Aid Greatly.
It is recognized here that Soviet
Russia could render valiant service
to the democratic cause just now
by rushing to completion the pro-
posed London nParis-Moscow defen-
sive pact. With this instrument
signed and the aid of Russia assured
In any defensive war against the
Fascist block. London could deal
much more firmly and effectively
with Toxic. But American officials
believe Moscow is playing a highly
nationalistic game and will continue
its present dilatory tactics until it
Is able to dictate entirely its own
terms Of alliance with Great Britain
and France.
Most likely, observers hold. the
situation at Tientsin will simmer
along" for days or weeks before
any definitive solution is reached
TN japanese apparently have no
desire 10 rush matters. With the
present blockade in effect, time
works against the British and will
do so increasingly as food in the
Tientsin concession becomes more
scarce, as the course of normal bus
iness is slowed down and as a
thousand petty annoyances impel
the British residents there to press
their government to seek terms
with the Japanese.
If, observers point out, the Jap
anese command desired to use force,
their problem would be simple
enough. The British defense unit
consists Of only $50 men, surround
ed by a japanese army running into
the hundreds Of thousands.
Japan understands we'll enough
however, that any military move
which led to the massacre" of this
small British force would result in
q world outcry which might result
In the cementing of really effec-
tive Anglo French American front
against Toxic in the Far East.
But with time working on
their side. the Japanese hope the
British eventually will pawn the
freedom Of their settlement by ac-
ceding to most Of the japanese de-
mands, important among which are
the surrender of several hundred
millions of dollars in Chinese silver
and adoption Of restrictions against
use Of the settlement as an anti
Japanese base Of operations by Chi
nese.
While, as remarked, American OBJ
servers believe the Japanese Army
command will seek to avoid fight
with British troops, there is always
the possibility that some incident"
may result in battle of bullets as
we'll as words. In that lies the real
danger Of large-scale Anglo-Japa-
nese war growing out Of the present
situation.
No New Development.
Looking backward, American OBJ
servers recalled yesterday that
Japan's determination to drive other
foreigners out of China is not new
development. Indeed, it has been a
cardinal point of policy among the
more rabid Japanese Army element
ever since Toxic launched its con-
quest Of Manchuria in the fall Of
1881.
Their ambition has been re-
strained, however, both by mod
crates in Japan-constantly decreas-
Ing in number and influence-and
also by residue of fear that the
Western powers, after all, might
really 60 to war to protect their
interests.
The Japanese, as has often been
remarked, are consummate oppor-
tunists. And in the dangerous prob
lem the British and French are
facing In Europe. they see counter
l. IL ~ IL