Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1939-12-26
Hopkins Reports
1889 Gains in Industry,
Trade, Agriculture
Warns Against Relying
On War Demands for
1910 Exports

The European war split United
States national economy into two
distinctive phases. Secretary Of
Commerce Hopkins reported today
in a year-end business statement.
Prior to September, recovery which
went at slow pace the last half OF
1898 continued but on broader
base. In September this gave way
to a sharp squirt produced by re-
adjustment in company policies
that followed the war"
Industry, trade and agriculture In
all sectors of their economy went to
higher levels during the year. How
ever, following outbreak Of the war
some important shifts occurred in
the volume and direction Of United
States export trade, the statement
showed.
While foreign trade may provide a
stimulus to our domestic economy
next year, Mr.. Hopkins warned that
such prospects must remain highly
uncertain under existing circum-
stances, and the outlook must be
appraised largely In the light Of do
mestic conditions" He warned that
I'VE can not rely upon destruction
abroad to create demand for goods
which, in the proper sense, can be
fostered here with advantage to all
Late Backlogs Reduced.
Secretary Hopkins statement fur
her said:
with company positions read
justed rather promptly in the buy
ing wave of September and early
October, new orders from domestic
sources tended to fall of and In the
final weeks of the year the large
backlogs which had been accumu-
lated were being reduced.
1.-The extent of economic improve
merit during the year may be meas
ured by the departments data on
income payments-an inclusive in
dicator since it measures the flow Of
purchasing power derived from cur
rent productive activity. The esti-
mated total for 1889 is $40 ,000, 900 900
"a 600, 100000 more than In 1898,
and $2,000,000000 less than in 1887.
A large part Of this increase
$4,000 900 ,000-went to labor, through
an increase in the number employed
and in more regular employment.
The number of persons employed IN
the latter part of 1899 was 100000
above the total of a year ago. Even
with these gains, however, the large
number without work in private in
dustry still provides measure OF the
potential productive capacity which
we are not utilizing even with cur
rently improved levels of production.
Profits Soar.
profits increased to very marked
degree, particularly in the late
months of the year. This has meant
higher dividend payments, as well
as larger business savings available
for reinvestment.
Expanded consumers incomes
this year have flowed freely into the
channels of trade and the total
volume Of retail sales was about 8
per cent higher than In 1898. Al
though sales of consumer durable
goods increased one-fifth from the
low volumes in 1888. they have not
been so large as in 1887. General
merchandise trade. on the other
hand, has regained the 1887 peak.
Manufacturing Production Up.
Manufacturing production in 1880
averaged about one-fourth larger
than in 1898, though it did not equal
the 1887 aggregate. While the vol
ulne of primary production during
the fourth quarter of 1889 was ap-
proXimately as large as in any SINH
lar period, this record of the basic
industries was not fully duplicated
throughout our industrial structure.
Commodity prices, which had in
clined to weakness in the first two
thirds of the year, advanced under
the impetus of concentrated demand
in September. Prices of farm prod
ucts and foods rose substantially
with benefit to purchasing power in
rural areas. Industrial raw materials
were bid up rapidly and there soon
followed price advances over
widening range of semifinished and
finished goods which gave promise
for a time of exercising adverse
effects upon consumer purchasing.
Prompt realization of this fact, and
Of the extremes to which initial
price rises went, tended to halt this
adverse development, though 1t did
not entirely prevent all of its mani
festations. However, retail food
prices and other living costs now are
not much changed from the posi-
ton a year ago and, Of course, ag-
gregate purchasing mower il ron.