The Daily Alaska empire., 1939-02-27


 kan and Juneau last reported in radio message its position opposite Grand Island and from that min- ute. at 2:l5 o'clock the afternoon of February 12 no word has been received, no fragment found no other clue however minute has been uncovered which may point to the possible fate of the flying craft.
 Conjecture as to the mishap which might have visited the airpane must remain merely conjecture and as such, be discounted for what it is worth. Shell Simmons, covering the section soon after the last radio report received and travelling the route in opposite direction, encountered in the stretch Grand Island clear visibility and a heavy tail wind which for Lon Cope would have meant a heavy head wind and icing conditions
 Simmons forced by these factors to the vest ward at Point Arden some five miles north Grand Island, to to the head of Seymour Canal and travel down that body of water to escape un- favorable flying conditions
 From this it might be deduced that Lon Cope through the stretch from Taku Inlet to Grand Island with plane heavy by of ice which had formed the ship However, according to A. B. Hayes, radio operator for Marine Airways, who was holding schedule with Cope. the pilot made no men, tion of icing conditions.
 But if his ship was iced down and he was struck by sudden gust wind the resultant situation would have caused him to bend all his attention to the manipulation of the ship controls Fighting frozen aelerons and elevators, the pilot would hardly have
 
 fraction of minute between the time gust of wind hit him and the time the ship would have gone down. his only consideration would have been to keep the plane aloft.
 Hence here might be partial explanation of why no call was heard from Cope
 But there are thousand other things which may have happened to produce no radio signal from the lost plane.
 Certain areas around Grand Island are notoriously lead for he in, If pockets when trouble struck and his desperate signal didn't get through.
 Perhaps the radio mechanism failed or least likely perhaps the pilot suffered sudden attack of illness. At this remote time from the day of the acc- dent it accepted that answer to these ques tions will never be given.
 The anxious and baffling element of the accident which occurred not over IS miles from Juneau in country familiar scores of hunters fishermen and airplane pilots is, where did the plane down?
 Alex Holden, chief pilot for the company for which the lost aviator was flying was in the air route to Tulsequah B C., at the time in another Fairchid plane of almost identical make, with the ex ception that the undercarriage equipment Copes plane pontoons, Holden's, wheels From ap- proximately the same general area, his reports were of strong winds only, with other unusual un- favorable flying conditions.
 Based on Holden's estimate of the customary fly ing altitude, Cope might have been up between l50O and 2000 feet If Cope at this altitude flying at his usual speed of between 95 and 100 miles per he would have cleared all mountain elevations in his path, provided he was able to hold this path.
 Granted that he going 100 miles hour, in five minutes he would travel more than eight miles, This would give him access to radial section broadly including the south end of Douglas Island all of the Point Arden Cove Point sector portion of the Taku Inlet elevations the north side of the inlet and on the east side of Stephens Passage and the west side of the passage, section over and around Oliver Inlet at the head of Seymour Canal
 Between these land bodies there approxima tely 200 square miles of water, water body of flat extent equivalent to TO- by 20-mile plot This is the channel crossroads section where waters from Taku Inlet, Stephens Passage Lynn Canal and Cas- tineau Channel meet This water is deep from 125 to 175 fathoms It is section swept by heavy tides and equally heavy winds
 However the premise that Cope travelling 100 miles per hour may be fallacious. Heavy winds essary would have reduced his speed and consequent ly reduced the area needful of search.
 Did he hit on land? Radio operator Hayes five minutes previous to Copes last call heard him report passing Twin points located the Glass Peninsula side of Stephens Passage. It follows therefore that when Cope reported his last position as opposite 7-~Nep'