Evening star., 1939-11-05
Foresees Prolonged
War Of Attrition
By O,ue,, L. Scott.

War of Attrition
By O1uen L. Scott.
All og the original ideas about Eu-
ropes war are gradually exploding. Out
Of the explosions Is coming Z concep-
ton Of this war and Of tts development
that is gaining acceptance among many
informed ofilcials.
The present conception Of what Is hap
pening and of what is going to happen Is
far removed from that Of the early days
Of the war.
At that time. President Roof6Nelt obvi-
ously looked for the sort o. ~guddenly
unleashed total" war that his diplo-
matte Representatives in France and
Great Britain had been predicting. That
accounted for the quick call of Congress
into special session and the dramatic
declaration Of national emergency that
was to help condition the country to
shocks from abroad.
Those early ideas, however, are having
to give way before new and better sup
ported ideas that put different face on
the situation.
The central new idea is that both
sides in Europe are determined to tight
. war Of attrition. each one directing
his strategy toward the gradual strangu-
lation Of his opponent rather than at
the sudden smashing Of that opponent.
A common opinion is that, In . war Of
this kind, Germany must lose. From
that opinion there sprang the idea that
Germany must night . lightning war,
throwing every resource into . desperate
attack on the western front as well as
against the industries Of her enemies
back of the front.
This opinion now is being revised by
many very well informed Government
officials.
Britain and France both have let 1t be
known that they intend to fight . de-
fensive war and will wait for Germany
to come and get them. They assure the
Germans that there Is to be no assault
on the Siegfried Line and no mass attack
through the air on interior German In
dustrtes unless Germany does the start
ing.
It has been commonly supposed that
Germany cannot hold out for q year In
the face Of the present British blockade
That supposition was based upon the
expectation that the war would be highly
destructive from the start. A war In the
character Of the past two months prob
ably could 60 on forever without forcing
the Germans to surrender through star
vation or through inability to supply her
army, particularly If Germany and Rus
sia effected real working agreement.
On the other hand. it is commonly
supposed that Great Britain has endless
resources. This is true on one condition.
namely that she can keep open her sea
routes. Every sign at the start Of the
war suggests that she can do this. But
there is yet to be test Of what airplanes
and submarines can do in q co-ordinated
attack on shipping. Until the time Of
that attack. the answer to Britain's vul-
nerability cannot be given. Certainly
the British isles themselves contain few
of the resources needed to support Q
nation Of 100000.
The result Is that this war may read
lily settle down to . long period Of quiet
on the western front while Germany
tries to nnd out II she can starve out
Great Britain and while Great Britain
tries to find out II she can starve out
Germany.
Such war would largely be devoted
to air attacks on shipping and on in
dustry.
In war Of that kind, there would be
relatively little prospect Of involvement
for the United States. American man
power would not be needed to supple
ment the man power of Great Britain
and France. already dug in behind nj.
most impregnable fortifcations If there
is not to be mass slaughter, then the
allies principally will need airplanes and
ships and raw materials. If the war in
the air and under the sea and on the sea
Is going to be slow moving, as 1t has
been, then the need for airplanes and
raw materials will not be Is large as
anticipated.
Now apparent is the probability that
war in 1899 will not follow the lines Of
the war in 1914. Ideas built on the ex-
pectation that the new war would be q
mere extension Of the former war al
ready are in the discard.
The decision, when it comes, viii rest
again, as in 1918, upon the staying power
Upon the lines of supply of the oppos-
ing sides-but there is unlikely to be the
same land attack by huge numbers Of
men mixed in to complicate matters.
It now is entirely possible that Ger.
many will undertake to fight the same
kind of defensive war on land that her
opponents are undertaking and will do
her attacking under and above the sea.
Her aim would be to cut Britain's lines
Of communication with her sources Of
supply. AS part of this strategy, Ger
many readily might move into Holland
to gain air bases nearer Britain and
might move on Denmark to gain q bet.
ter foothold in the North Sea.
But the idea Of a highly destructive
war Of mass slaughter on the western
front-either now or later-is rather
heavily discounted here.
Each side thinks it has q better way
of gaining the same end. And each side
thinks it can starve out the other. Both
may discover that this thought Is easier