The Kennewick courier-reporter. [volume] (Kennewick, Wash.) 1939-1949, 1939-01-12
ECONOMIS HIGHLIGHTS
The turn of the year is the eco

ever. . q
ECONOMIS HIGHLIGHTS
The turn of the year is the eco
nomic forecaster's heaven. Within
the last fortnight every business
publication and economist of con.
sequence has devoted great effort tc
anticipating the future. Guesses as
to details of the business picture
naturally vary considerably-but,
generally speaking, there is very
little disagreement among the ex-
pertS over the picture as a whole
With hardly dissenting voice, they
forecast boldly that 1899 will be a
year of progress. ~
Two forecasts are of unusual in
terest. Paul Mallon reports that '.Mr.
Roosevelt's battalions of figurers are
unanimously for probably the first
time in New Deal history. Govern
ment economists now all expect a
mild slackening of industrial activ-
ity in the next three months, sort
OF readjustment period, they call it,
to be followed by spring rise, a
strong summer and much stronger
fall-winter year end" To put it
more precisely, these economists
think, according to Mr.. Mallon, that
industrial production (which is at
los on the charts at this writing)
will gradually taper off, reaching a
low OF 81 in March, and that the
upturn will set in then, and bring it
to the 100 level in the late fall.
Similar, and more particularized
views, are held by Roger Babson. In
q long optimistic article predicting
conditions in 1889, he observes, "To-
tai business by the end of 1899 will
De as good as-perhaps even better
than at any year end since 1929
=. Jobs. wages, retail sales, stocks
and even farm prices should chalk
up good-sized gains There are
no hedges taxed on to my forecast
as there were In several times past
-. Today I can see no reason why
the tides Of recovery should not
carry us vigorously forward-per-
maps even to new highs since 1929"
Mr.. Babson then lists a number
OF what he regards as strongly fav-
orable factors. These include: AL
growth Of 100000 in our popula-
ton since 1929; multitude of new
inventions; deferred demand for
goods; government spending; low
inventories; returning confidence
due to less business batting" the
pending boom in building.
A survey Of a number Of other
forecasts indicates that the forego-
Ing opinions are typical. Some of the
dark spots in the business set-up
are Frightening. It Is believed, for
Instance, that there will be an i'm
provement in railroad and public
utility purchasing, due to expand
ing demand for power and transpor-
tation services. And it is still hoped |,
hat Congress will take steps toward
eliminating some of the problems
hat confront these two basic in s
1uStrieS. !
Best Of all, perhaps, is the be-
1ef that expansion in manufacture
ng and mining will create an in
;reased demand for durable goods,
and thus spur the long dormant !.
heavy industries. If that happens,
tremendous amount of employ
nent will be created, and all COM :
nerce will feel the good effects. So {
ar, recovery has been largely con-
1ned to consumers goods industries, {
1ue In a large measure to govern .
nent relief spending; there can be
10 real prosperity, as any economist
an tell you, until durable goods t
how a comparable Improvement.