Milford chronicle., 1939-11-10
ECONOMIC HlGHLlGHTS
Happenings That Affect the Dinner
Pals, Dividend Checks and Tax
Bills of Every Individual; National
and international Problems Insep-
arabic from Local Welfare.

DIliS VI ElCEI AnulffuuhhS NAtfOud
and International Problems Insep
arabic from Local Welfare.
1t should be remembered that bus.
mess was improving in this country
before Germany invaded Poland. anC
Britain and France declared war
Therefore, late jumps in the business
cycle cannot he entirely laid to hos
tilities abroad. War was a boom
factor, but it didn't change down
ward trend into an upward trend. II
simply accelerated Ito an immense
extent in some lines) the betterment
that had set in some time before.
The first weeks of the war saw
frenzied buying and manufacturing
everybody seemed to be trying to
get in on the ground floor at once
before prices shot skyward. That
first, rather hysterical phase of the
current improvement apparently has
passed. The uptrend in the barome-
teBs continues, but at a slow pace.
The outlook is that future better
ment will also be slow-but it is a
fact which you can take for what il
iS worth that practically all of the
economists feel that it will continue.
Business is better than most of us
realize. Industrial production today
is close to the 1929 level-some baro-
meters show it even slightly above
that point. A number of industries
have actually passed the pre-depreI-
sion peak. OF these, the most i'm
portant is steel. which recently
touched new high. Other industries
which are doing better now than in
| 1929 from the production standpoint
(but not from the profit standpointD
are electric power. shoes, textiles,
oil refining and tobacco manufac-
turing.
AS this column has pointed out
before, the very sharp increase in
inventories Occasioned by the war
has not ds yet been met by com
porable increase in consumer pur-
chasing. And il seems improbable
that foreign demand, at least in the
more or less visible future, will be
adequate 20 absorb the supplies-all
Europe is short of cash, and her ma
tions will use their own resources
TO the utmost before spending any
of their slender gold boards AS
result. il is to the domestic market.
that we must principally look for a
rise in demand that will justify the
rise in production. +.
That the country is all set to go
ahead is obvious from even a cursory
glance at the basic statistics. Busi-
ness Week, for instance, thinks that
wit hO1t hpiDu N 10
reasonable to anticipate q push up
ward that will bring us ahead of
1929 economically. AS evidence, the
magazine POINTS out that bank de-
pOsits are at their all-time high and
that excess reserves of banks are
also at record high leyela The cash
is on hand when our people are ready
to use it, ..... ....
All the temporary Influences seem
TO be for the better At the same
time, it pays to be cautious time
and again In the last ten years we
have seen the stage set for recovery. !
only to nave a new recession take i
hold and shatter our hopes. IL an
other break comes soon and the in
dicatOrS reverse their upward course. |
about every expert in the country /
will have to go into hiding. They are
practically all bullish today.
-OOO-
One school of thought holds that |
the war in Europe must inevitably !
become u stalemate- British !
seapOwer and German airpower will /
just about Offset each other in effec-
tivenesS, aud that neither Germans
nOr Allies will be able to make i'm
portant gains through the great lines
of Notifications on the Western
Front. From this, it is argued that
both sides will finally be forced to
some kind of a peace. if
only to prevent Communism from
engulfing Europe. ~s
1t has long been said that the only
winner in Il protracted European war
will be Russia. And during the brief
time this war has been fought, it is
apparent that Stain has achieved
he only major victories. The omi-
nous shadow of the U. s. s. r. blan-
lets the Baltic completely-and ex-
ends far intc the Balkans. Many AM
'Xpert argues that Hitler gave away
ar more than he gained when he
made his 6eal with the Soviets.
Today it seems certain that Rus
Ma holds the balance of power. She
AN stop Hitler cold in his northern
idvance-5ne holds Germany at her
mercy when it comes to many essen
ial supplies. On the other hand, if
he threw IN with Hitler and actually
ent her vest army to fight with the
'ermans, few believe France and
England could long survive. The
Probabilities seem to be that Stain
as definitely decided not to take the
after Jtep-it is to Russia's interest,
lost experts are convinced. that she
tay neutral-play one side against
he other. and finally. when the two
ides are worn and exhausted, step
a and. gather the spoils
Also nj great importance is the
urrent attitude of Italy. No longer
oes the controlled Italian press
Ieil Hitler at every opportunity and
evile the French and British. Mus
Dlini ha;es Communism. apparent
:, far more than he loves the Nazis.
nd the Russian pact seems
} have blasted the Rome Berlin
okyo axis TO bits.