Glacier County chief., 1939-09-22
HOW is THE WAR
GOING TO EFFECT
AMERICA?

HlBnt De phraSed like this: How
is the European war going to effect
meas an individual, as a worker.
and as a factor in our society,""
The answer to that must natural
ly vary with the work you do, the
way you earn your living, in what
section of the country you live, and
what your station in life is. And
the hazards of forecasting at this
early stage are obvious. But, going
by the experience of the past, it is
the safest bet imaginable that the
average man and woman is going
to be affected by the European ex-
plosion, and in certain definite
ways.
First, war is almost certain to
Lave an Influence on the cost of
living in this country-and an I'M
favorable influence, looking at it
from the point of view of the house
holder who has to pay the bills.
However, there is no reason for be-
lieving, as thousands of people ap-
parently did in the first days of the
struggle, that prices are due for a
prolonged trip to the economic stra-
tosphere. All over the country peo-
pie rushed into stores to lay in
heavy supplies of sugar, flour and
other staples. AS result, many To-
calities reported themselves practi-
cally sold out of these commodities.
Stores were forced to ration dwind-
ling stocks. This was panic buying
which naturally created a highly
artificial price situation. Prices i'm
mediately scared to completely un
reasonable levels from which. at
this writing, they have begun to
drop.
The truth is that we have, and
have long had. heavy surplus of
most commodities. Sugar stocks on
hand recently touched an all-time
high. This years world wheat crop
was the greatest on record, and the
U. S. crop, while it did not set a re-
cord for us, was very large. We
have an excess of. flour in storage.
Don't forget that the government
has actually been paying out money
in export subsidies in an effort to
find market for some of these sur
plus commodities.
AS result, even with heavy war
demand, considerable time must
pass before commodity supplies are
reduced to normal" much less be-
low normal. The moral of it all is
that the consumer has no immediate
real worry about greatly soaring
prices. Prices will tend upward. un-
doubtedly, and if the war goes on
long enough a very serious price
problem could result. But sudden
price booms can only follow mass
hysteria. And the government has
certain controls. long-established
which can be used effectively to
curb profiteering and conscience
less speculation at the consumers
expense
Second. what about the effect of
the war on business? There is no
need to go into the armament pic
ture here-if. as the President de-
Slres, the arms embargo is repealed
IN favor of the cash-and-carrv plan.
the munitions industries. and the
basic industries supplying their
needs. will obviously boom. The
for other business is HIGH
ly variable. For wool and similar
necessities. The producers of these
commodities would find unlimited
markets and good prices. and they
ana their areas would prosper
forelgn consumption of other inn
portant commodities. not so neces-
sary to the prosecution of war
would decline. Cotton and tobacco
are cases in point. You can live a
long time without either of these
commodities. but YOU can't live
without grain. The result is that the
cotton people, who have long faced
drastic problem of rising surplus
es and narrowing foreign markets
may be struck another severe eco
nomlc blow. This would be as dis
astrouS to the South as the boom in
wheat would be beneficial to the
plains states.
On top OF that, 19l4-l8 experience
indicates that even at home in a
neutral country people buy less in
war time. They make their clothes
asst longer, build fewer houses. as
result of uncertainty as to the flu
.ure. And certain industries suffer.
Thus, the economic effects of Tho