Evening star., 1939-06-11
Present European Tranquility
Believed 'Lull Before the Storm
Observers See Situation Unchanged and Look
For Axis to Press Demands When Italian
Defenses Are Completed
Bv Constantine BrOwn.

While the big financial circles of the
world are basking in the sun of optimism
that the worst in Europe is over and
there is going to be no war in the near
future" and while the diplomats of the
democratic bloc" are working overtime
to line up as many nations as can be
induced to defy the ambitions of the
axis those responsible for the conduct
OF world affairs are apprehensive; they
fear another violent crisis in the course
of the summer.
NewSpa pers in Great Britain and
France have been invited" by the re-
spective governments to play up the
confidence" tune. The publicity organs
of the totaltarian states maintain re-
served attitude for the time being. The
average traveller or local resident who
endeavors to enlighten the public out
side Europe either has to be careful not
to disclose any military or diplomatic
secrets or does not have the opportunity
to go behind the scenes. Hence the ac-
cepted reactions Of Europe. which tend
to indicate peace this year, are in
evitably felt in this country.
Basis for War Speculation.
Those who believe that despite the
present lull something may happen in
Europe before fall base their judgment
on the following facts The situation
has not CHANGED in the last two months;
Hitler has nos modified his claims on
Danzig and the Corridor: MusSolini has
not abandoned his claims to African pos
sessions the Polish government remains
unyieldng in regard to Danzlg. The Sit
uation between the axis and its oppo-
nents is exactly as it was during the
April crisis. There have been do diplo-
matte conversations tending to straighten
out the positions of the antagonists.
Britain and France have been in search
of new allies and have found-Greece
and Turkey. Both these states are OF
merely relative military value. Russia,
so confidential reports from London and
Paris say will be brought into the bloc
despite the difficulties this combination
presents at the present moment.
Last week, on the basis of what Ambas-
sador Maisky told MI. Chamberlain,
everything but the signature of the pact
on June 5 had been agreed upon. Deal
ing with dictatorS is, however, more diff
cult than dealing with democratic gov
ernments. Stain and Molotof changed
their minds practically over night. They
decided that the promises for the COW
erage of the Baltic states by Great Brit
ain and France were not Suthclently
binding; they also discovered that the
sections of the pact dealing with the
vital part of the defense OF Siberia
against the Japanese were so vague that
they could not be counted upon. And
Stain decided that he wanted real teeth
In the treaty; otherwise there will be no
common front between the western
"democracies" and the eastern dictator
ship.
Doubt Military Efficiency.
The reluctance of the British to
go too far with the Moscow government
is due to the fact that the British gem
eral staff. on the basis of what they be-
lieve to be reliable information, does not
believe in the efficiency of Russia mill
tary force Russia, the general staff tells
Chamberlain has nuisance value which
might be important in the event OF
European war but the value is not sufti-
cient to allow the empire to assume re-
sponsibilities such as the Sovlets demand
And to illustrate this, the British I'M
perial Defense Council points out that
since the middle of May the German
Ambassador at Moscow has received def
mite instructions from Berlin to give up
all secret negotiations with the Kremlin
for a German-Russian understanding.
Berlin considers Japans opposition to
an understanding with the Soviets as
more important than the securing of
Russia's neutrality.
Stain and Molotoff are too "provin-
. cial'-to use British foreign office eX-
pression-to understand the risks their
country would run in the event OF VIC
tory of the axis against the Western
"democracies" The Russian leaders are
taking the view so many American Con-
gressmen take-that Russia is in no i'm
rninent danger Of being invaded in the
event of another European conf1agratlon
and she has more to lose than to gain
from joining in the fray. In their slight
comprehension Of the aims and purposes
of the stop-Hitler bloc they fail to see
that the U. S. r. r. stands to lose every
thing if she allows the dictators to
achieve their eXpansionist aims. And
the British and French Ambassadors at
Moscow are endeavoring to drill into the
provincial minds Of the two Russian
leaders the idea that Germany can de-
feat Poland and thus become Russia S
next-door neighbor.
Maisky Threatened With Purge
The two diplomats reported late in
May that Stain and Molotoff had un-
derstood the problem despite the diff
culties the French and British diplo-
mats had in explaining this to them.
Neither Communist chief speaks any,
thing but Rsssian. Maisky, who has
been imbued with the democratic atmos-
phere of London and Paris. shares the
point of view of the Quai dOrsay and
Downing Street, but has been threat