Imperial Valley press., 1938-01-28

were missing at Christmas time.
Among them are good retail trade
reports. Seasonally higher indus
trial activity, steadier tones in
commodity markets, and better
building volume. To get a words
eye picture of current trends, let
me briefly analyZs the leading
business barometerS:
Consumer Industries Sensitive
Consumer Industries are usually
the first to be hit and hence are
usually the first to recover. There
fore, conditions in this group at
present are of more than ordinary
interest. Textile activity is current
ly 40 per cent below last years
level and back to the 1924 bed
rock figures. Trading in gray goods,
however, has recently been more
brisk and prices have firmed The
fortnight, moreover, has seen a
sturdy step-up-l0 per cent-in
mill operations.
The shoe industry was among the
first to feel the slackening in &C
tivity last year Production last
month was 80 per cent under the
year-ago level. Smart shoe-makers.
however. have cut prices 10 per
cent. As a consequence, buying was
better than expected at the recent
annual Chicago shoe show. Reports
indicate that some factories will be
running near capacity during the
next so to 80 days.
One would think that food sales
would jog along at a stable level,
but volume is influenced by prices
and general conditions Latest re-
ports show food sales considerably
under the 1897 figures. Here again
there has been a noticeable pickup
during the past week or two with
the easing off in retail prices as
the leading stimulating factor
Paper consumption has taken a
licking" along with all other bus
inesses. Because paper is used in
SO many different lines, it is an
excellent barometer of general bus
mess. 1t is interesting, therefore,
that paper company executives re-
port orders nudging seasonally a.
head in the past ten days with
many mills running better than
they have for several months.
Some Heavy Industries Hard Hit
Heavy Industries maintained
their volume long after the more
sensitive consumer industries be-
gan to curtail Hence, some were
hit later but harder than the light
er manufacturing group. Biggest
suffered among the durable. goods
industries has been steel. Opera
tions catapulted downward from
85 per cent of capacity last August
to 20 per cent a month ago. Since
Christmas there has been some
recovery and the operating rate
this week is around 80 per cent
compared with 30 per cent year
ago.
Motor assemblies in 1897 were the
second largest in the history Of
the industry. Car sales continued
at an excellent level until Novem-
Der when they folded up like an
accordion. Factory output has drop
ped from 10000 cars per week
last Spring TO $1,000 at present.
The current level, on the other
hand, compares with only $4,000
assemblies in the first week of this
month!
Building volume has held up re-
markably well Private home con-
struction has fallen sharply since
last June and IS only IS per cent
OF the 1897 level But nonresident
tial and public operations have
stepped into the breach SO Unat
total construction in December was
above a year ago. Furthermore,
the first half OF January was pet
ter than the initial fortnight of
December As a consequence, al
lied industries, such as lumber
have begun to pull up from their
recent depth of as low as 80 per
cent under their 1897 peak.
Machine-tO0l orders are a good
barometer OF activity in all the
capital goods industries. They are
running As per cent below a year
ago. The December total OF do
mestic orders was off 10 per cent
from November, but latest figures
indicate a less than seasonal de-
cline Meanwhile, foreign orders Tor
cur machine tools particularly
from RusSia-are coming in brisk
ly.
General Indicators Look Up
Miscellaneous Indicators also give
an excellent clue 10 business con-
ditions. Heading the list is power
consumption. II is a valuable in
dicator because electricity is used
universally in factory and home.
Its trend has been vertically down
ward since September. Several
months ago output crossed below
the year ago. level for the first
time since April, 1885. Current fig
ures, however, are reflecting the
seasonal step-uD in industry all