Evening star., 1938-09-18
BUSINESS UPTURN
SEEN IF WAR HITS.
But Depression Following
Conflict Might Prove
Disastrous.
e, the Associated Press.

3, the Associated Press.
NEW YORK, Sept. l7.-With the
world intent upon war clouds over
Europe, the big question facing Amer
ican business is:
How would we be affected II major
foreign powers fight?"
A canvass OF several Wall Street
banking and business authorities and
experts shows opinion confused. but
leaning toward the conclusion that =
vast European conflict. while 1t lasted,
might stimulate American business,
and the shock at the onset would be
markedly less severe than that expert
enced in 1914.
But it was generally thought war
would bring no business boom" to the
United States Of 1868 proportions;
and its conclusion, II it lasted long,
might leave = major portion Of the
world in such. Impoverished and chaotic
condition as to have depressing, per-
haps grave, repercussions here.
Public Holds Key.
All analysts consulted crossed their
fingers, figuratively. for several reasons
!. Whether the United States Gov
ernm9nt enforces neutrality laws for-
bidding war shipments) and the john
son Act prohibiting loans to defaulted
countries, including England and
France) would depend upon public
opinion.
2. If American public opinion IA
vored support to the democracies, the
administration might ignore the loop
holes: Congress might even amend or
repeal the laws. IT, on the other hand,
the country is swept by anti-war senti-
ment the administration might clamp
down on supplies and credits and Con-
gress might plug loopholes.
3. Should America become involved
In q general European war-"all bets
are on; none OF the prognosticators
would venture to predict the effect
upon business, because of the possibil-
ity Of much greater governmental con-
troll than in 1915.
Calculations made, therefore, would
apply only to the period of a general
European war in which the United
States would not participate. The
consensus:
/. The immediate effect Of wa,
would be only . temporary shock
which American business could take ir
its stride. In 1914 American business
generally. and especially commoditie.
were harder hit than American finance
and banking. Every one believed then
that the European war would cause
complete disruption of American busi-
ness because Europe would not be in
the market. because sea commerce
would be interfered with by hostile
navies and because Europe. then
banker for American industry, would
want its money back at once.
Today, on the other hand, Europe
as whole, would probably want a.
much as the United States Govern
msat would let her buy; England
would control the seas and serious in
reference with American shipping
would be unlikely. especially because OF
the strength Of the American Navy;
European investments or orders are no
longer An essential mainstay to Ameri.
can business: grains and most other
commodities would be in demand al
most from the outset.
"B0Dm" Declared Unlikely.
2. The long term effect while the
United States remained out of the
war; would be stimulating but not
OF the boom" type because the United
States would become, almost over
night, an outstanding supplier of man.
ufactured goods, machines and other
essentials.
Quite apart from United States Gov
ernment restrictions, European ma.
tions, and those in the Orient, too
have a greatly altered credit status
compared with 1916. United State.
dealings with Japan for some time
have been approaching 4 cash.
and-carry basis. 1t was considered
likely, therefore. that unless the
United States Government attitude
changes warning nations would not
obtain from the United States any
more than they could pay for in gold
acceptable foreign exchange, or BY
some device Of barter.