The Waterbury Democrat., 1938-08-19

The average store queried antici- patcd that retail sales in the com munity 1t serves would break even in dollar volume during the three months, as compared with the same period in l937, and q majority of the stores boiled thought it possible that sales during the Christmas Scason would exceed those of last year. With prices predicted at 7% under 1897 levels, it is likely, therefore, that the actual units oi mcrchan- di8ing passing over store counters this fall will be greater than the number in the 1887 Beagon.
 Generally, merchants indicated q notable degree of optimism in giz- ing up the outlook for fall trade. Many of them reported signs Of quickening activity in their home town industries and stores despite the usual summer lull.
 Outstanding Factors
 In naming the factors they be- lieVc will contribute to the cXpan- sion of business generally this fall, the merchants apparently consid- cred the federal spending lending program prime element, for more than 70M of those replying said they felt government pump -priming" would be major factor in the up- turn. Some 3GM of the retailers mentioned the increase in consumer and business confidence as an omen of better business this fall. Bumper crops were heralded by BOZ of the gtoremen, particularly those in the middle west, gouth and northwest. as favoring business gains during the autumn months. More than 25M of the retailers in the survey cited the law state of inventories a. cause for business improvement. Other factors named as likely to speed the upturn included: Present increases in employment and factory production; bullish sentiment in the stock market with It's beneficial re- action on the public mind: present low prices which are conducive to buying; the aid which declining sales totals last fall will give to a comparison of improving sales this fall; the recent Improvement in re- tail Sales figures even though losses still are generally prevalcnt: a de- crease in news disturbing to business from Washington; q consumer mar ket greatly in need of rcplcnghment: Idle capital ready to go to work greater liberalization of bank credit, improved employer employee rcla. tionB; gains in freight traffic; ad. vance in steel production; a favor. able money market to aid exports gains in building in many section, of the country; the success of loca "salc8 make jobs" campaigns; pick up in raw goods markets, and Oth- CTS.
 The estimates Of the merchants as to the probable course of retail sales In their communities during the fall months showed wide variation ranging from 8% to 10M in the pre- dlcted gain8, to dccrcagcB of 20M tc 25M. More merchants, however anticipated that sales would either break even Or increase thig fall as compared with September, October and November in 1D37. than looked for dccrea8c8.
 New England Most Hopeful
 on the whole. New England mer- chantg appeared most hopeful of sales showing thig fall, with an av- craze expectation of 2M increase for the three months. In the Mid dlc Atlantic states, Middle West and | South. retailers generally indicated they expected salc8 to progress | gradually. with figures averaging losses for the three months of from | l% 10 3M aB compared with 1D37 While the decline in sales last fall VIII aid sales figures during the com | Ing period. dollar gains this year at J the same time will be handicapped by the fact that prices will be under those lost fall.
 Approximately g0M Of the mcr- chants pollcd reported definite sipns Of Increased business activity in their communities. Providence. t. ]. told of incrcagcs in manufacturers payroIl8, and EaVcrhill, Mags, Of or derB being received by shoe man ufacturcrs. In Lansing, Mich, mcr- chantb were chccrcd by news Of preparations for Increased prod,ic- tion in motor plants, in Salt Lake