Evening star., 1938-09-11
~ RTTAIE'S final decision to partici-
X pate in another world war depends
largely on whether or not President
p0ocovo1f ~

Roosevelt can convince the Ameri-
can people that they should take share in
such a catastrophe. Great Britain and her
associates France, Russia and Czechoslo-
vakia could, If necessary, cope with the
Rome-Berln- Budapest axis. But her back
door, the most important one, in the Pa
cific, is at the mercy of the Japanese. Un-
less she could count on the United States
to patrol the Pacific, British naval authori-
ties consider it would be more than risky
for the empire to engage in another inter-
national conflagration.
Seldom has an American Ambassador
been taken more into the confidence of the
British government than is the case with
Joseph Kennedy. Less than an hour after
the fateful cabinet meeting adjourned the
United States Ambassador was summoned
to 10 Downing street He was informed
that every conceivable argument to pre-
vent q catastrophe in Central Europe was
being used with Messrs Hitler and Benes
and that there still was hope Of delaying,
II not settling, the question Of the Sudeten
Germans, now threatening the peace Of the
world.
But. Mr.. Kennedy was informed, should
the Germans prove adamant, concerned
more with the disruption Of Czechoslovakia
than with the fate Of the Sudeten Germans,
France will be compelled to assist her This
decision OF the British cabinet, Kennedy
was informed, had been communicated to
Hitler.
At the White House ways and means are
being devised to exercise q certain pressure
on the German dictator in the hope Of
avoiding an armed conflict in Europe this
year.
U. 8. Fleets Role Undecided.
What role the United States Fleet may be
called upon to play in the next conf1agra-
ton has not yet been decided For the time
being plans of holding the next years war
games in the Atlantic Ocean remain. un-
changed. But one word from President
Roosevelt would be sufficient to counter
mand the present arrangements and shift
the whole fleet from its present base on
the West Coast to Honolulu. Whether that
word will be given depends on developments
Of the next few weeks.
The British admiralty has completed its
plans for an eventual campaign. A por-
ton Of the British fleet is already gathered
in Northern Scotland as q warning to Herr
Hitler that merciless blockade would be
established against Germany should her
battalions invade Czechoslovakia. The
British Navy, while not as ready for action
as the American, Is In good shape for .
war in Europe.
The latest information indicates that four
battleships are still in dry dock being mod
ernized. They are among the most power
full units Of the British navy, the Queen
Elizabeth the Families, the Valiant and
the Revenge. Thus Great Britain has in
service only IL Or her seagoing levia-
thans. But that would not materially
change the situation, if Britain's commune
cations in the Pacine were not threatened
by Japan. The Japanese Navy, which has
played only a small role in the present war
in China, is intact and able to put to sea
at short notice. Against that fleet Britain
has nothing in the Pacific The three
cruisers and some 40-odd submarines and
other auxiliary destroyers could not combat
the more than ,00O, 900 tons of warships of
the Japanese Empire. And herein lies
Britain's great weakness in the present
European situation.
Japan Fears U. S. Entry.
There are sufficient indications In Lon
don and in Washington as to what Japan
would do were she asked to honor her
alliance with Germany and Italy.
Japans chief difficulty in China lies in
her overextended lines Of communications.
She needs no less than 300, 900 men to keep
them open against Chinese guerrillas. 1t
is assumed by military observers that in the
event Of war in Europe, Japan would with
draw to line extending from Canton,
which she could occupy without much
trouble to Shanghai Marking, Tientsin and
Peiping. She could intrench herself be-
hind that line and hold it with less than
250,000 men. The rest of her troops would
be sent to reinforce the Kwantung army
for an eventual operation against Field
Marshal Bluecher's battalions in Siberia.
Observers have reported to Washington
that large movements Of troops are already
taking place in the direction of Manchukuo
The Japanese general statr favors such
shortening Of the front, confident that
Chang Kai-shek's armies, while able to
offer determined resistance, cannot take the
offensive on q large scale They lack,
among other things, airplanes and mechan-
lied forces and have no means Of obtaining
them in sufficient quantities to embarras
the Japanese offensive.
As soon as the Chinese front has been re-
established, the Japanese fleet could swoop
down on Hong Kong and Singapore. Hong
Kong could offer little assistance The in
significant British Asiatic fleet, unless it
manages to escape in time, would be de-
stroyed by the Japanese. To conquer
Singapore, however, would require months
Of fighting, which would immobilize a por-
tion Of the Japanese feet and some so 900
troops. Singapore Is . formidable base,
provided there are ships operating in the
Pacific or Indian Oceans. In itself it Is
merely . well-defended shell. The jap
anese could control and raid the Indian
Ocean without worrying about Singapore
If 1t were not for the fact that the general
STAN In TOXIC is convinced that the British
fortress would be used as q base by the
American fleet should the United States
throw her lot with the British and the