The Waterbury Democrat., 1938-08-03
BY WEBB MILLER

tCopyright 1888 by United Press)
 London, Aug. 3-Russia and Japan probably do not intend to let their pocket war" on the Manchukuan- Siberian Korean frontiers reach the proportions of formal and full fiedged war, foreign ovservers here believe.
 Both nations have preponderant reasons for keeping the situation from getting out of hand. That does not rule out the likelihood of heavy fighting, with limited commitments in the number of troops involved and the area covered.
 Both, for sufficient reasons, seem- ingly will let the incidents which before the World war would have resulted in an immediate full dress" war pass for the time being, except for relations.
 Same Policy for Both
 That policy has been followed by both nations in the last two years, during which scores of armed clashes have occurred which normally would have been critical.
 Japan is 50 dc~ply involved in China that she probably will go to great lengths to avoid involvment with Soviet Russia. Furthermore the Japanese economic situation has shown signs of rapid deterioration. The Japanese realize that Russia, on top of the current war with China, might imperial their entire position in China.
 Soviet Russia, similarly, has vari- ous reasons for swallowing it's pride and avoiding major war commit ments in the Far East. The CZecho- slovakian minority situation is po- tentially so dangerous in Europe that Russia wants to have it's full strength available in Europe. Par ticipation in first class war 5000 miles to the east would be a heavy strain, despite the fact that the Soviet far eastern army Is almost self.sufflcient.
 Officers Lost By Purge
 Another factor to Russia Is that about two-thirds of all their officers above the rank of colonel have dis appeared in recent purges and have been replaced by less experienced officers.
 One of my friends just out of Russia, where he had exceptional opportunities of observation, esti- mated that 30 per cent of the higher officers had disappeared.
 The purge in industry and trans port also has decreased Soviet effl- ciency. Some Soviet authorities arc convinced that time will be on their side and that Japan will weaken progressively as 1t pushes further into China. On the other hand, they believe, Soviet strength and efficien- cy will increase steadily and Russia can settle accounts with Japan when conditions are more favorable.
 Therefore, observers with whom I have talked think that the Soviets will continue to fight the Japanese frequently, with limited commit m.nts which will force the Japanese to keep a considerable army in Manchukur and thus indirescly aid China.
 No Unusual Activity
 Neutral observers just back from Siberia said they noticed no indica- tions along the trans-Siberian rail- road at the end of June of any unusual troop concentrations. They said the general estimate Of the Soviet far eastern army places 1t at nearly 500,000. and that 1t is suffi- ciently self-contained to carry on the present type of limited objec- tives in the Far East which they believe to be the present Soviet pol icy.
 Such observers expressed belief that boarder engagements might reach scale where several thous- and men would be involved, but that the situation would not be permit ted to get entirely out of hand.