Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1938-08-07
BY JOSEPH H. BAIRD.

Ov1ET RUSSIA and Japan came
nearer to open warfare last week
than at any time since the Tsar and
the Mikado made peace at Ports
mouth in 1905. And while the negotia-
lions between the Toxic and Moscow for
eign Offices may result in quelling the fight
ing around Changkufeng Hill. war is still
likely enough to make timely a look at the
probable course of major struggle be-
tween the two powers.
The word probable is used advisedly
for wars do not always follow the patterns
laid out on general staff maps. Unsuspect-
ed strengths and weaknesses are revealed
both in ones own forces and in those of
the enemy and these may wreck the best
laid campaign plans.
It is possible, however, to look with fair
clarity at the obvious detectives of two
potential enemies. to know certain hard
and fast geographical facts and something
Of the military strength of the two COM
batants And from these data it is pos
sible to make some accurate guesses as to
the likely course of a war; at least in its
initial stages.
The theories advanced here, 1t should
be explained, e>based upon a synthesis
of facts and opinions gathered from mill
tary men and diplomats over the course
Of the last five years. supplemented by some
personal knowledge of Russia and the Red
Army.
Without any quibbling as to the agrees
sive or defensive designs of either power,
1e hot If
each in the event of war would be COM
plete domination of Eastern Asia. from
Polar Siberia down to the warm-water
port Of Port Arthur Whatever sharing
of this territory there might be arranged
in time of peace. once the cannon roar
there is little possibility of compromise. 1t
would be a war to exhaustion.
Two Objectives for Japan.
Because OF certain geogra phical and
military facts. however. the outbreak of
war would find Russia fighting on the de-
fensive in the face of Japanese push
northward. And in its early stages Japan's
campaign would concentrate, probably, on
two detectives:
First Of these would be the Russian city
provinces and primary base for Russian
supplies and aviation on the Pacific.
The capture of Vladivostok not only
would place the japanese in a position to
occupy the maritime provinces and cut
them of from the rest of Siberia. but the
wiping out of Soviet air fields there and
in the vicinity would remove what is. per-
haps the greatest menace to the whole
Japanese plan of campaign That is the
ability of the Soviet air forces based there
to conduct almost daily raids on the Japa-
nese columns of supply and to cripple the
many strategic railroads which radiate
from Hardin north to the Russian border
Vladivostok is only few score miles
from the Manchukuoan boundary. While
Japanese Army. probably 10000 or more
strong, struck at it by land the Nipponese
navy undoubtedly would be concentrating
TO shell this strategic center from the sea.
Indeed. In this campaign against Vladivos-
tok the great Japanese Navy probably
would have its one major chance to prove
its worth. For Russia is a vast continental
power well-stocked with its own war sup
plies and food so that naval blockade
would accomplish little against it. There
Is not the remotest possibility that the in
significant Russian surface fleet would
challenge Japan to a battle on the high
seas Hence, save for the siege of Vladv-
ostok. the war would be fought almost
entirely on land.
1t is useless to guess how long Vladivostok
might hold out against this attack by land
and sea. Its defensive power probably is
great Strong Notifications have been
erected there against this anticipated battle.
Food supplies to last many months are
stored up there. The Vladivostok area is
defended also by strong concentration
OF air forces 1t cannot be assumed with
certainty that it would ever fall. although
most military strategists believe that in
time 1t would be forced to capitulate unless
1t received reinforcements of troops and
munitions from the armies farther west.
Lake Baikal More Important.
The Vladivostok campaign, however,
would be the lesser of Japans two likely
initial thrusts into Russia The Toxic gen.
erals real attempt at knockout blow"
likely would be aimed at an area more
than 1000 miles west of Vladivostok-at
the Lake Baikal region of Siberia, with the
hope Of isolating this entire section from
the rest Of Russia by effectively blocking
the Trans Siberian Railroad. only line of
communication between Siberia and the
west One of Russia s outstanding military
weaknesses, so far as its Far Eastern terri
tory is concerned, has always been its
slender communications. Once the Trans
Siberian is effectively blocked by the dyna-
hitting OF one of the many tunnels in the
Lake Baikal area the Far East is definitely
isolated from the rest of Russia BY no
conceivable means save air transport with
very limited capacity could new troops
or articles of war then be sent to relieve
the Soviet forces opposing Japan.
In reaching the Lake -Baikal area Japan's
course from Manchukuo would lie
through the northern province of China
which it virtually dominates-and then
across the arid plains of Outer Mongolia.
To the northeast of this route lie high
mountains which would be an effective
military barrier to mechanical forces, just
as they were to the medieval caravans
which first blazed the trails northwestward
which Japan would be forced to follow.
But between the lush plains Of Man.
churia and the desired japanese goal