Montana oil and mining journal. [volume] (Great Falls, Mont.) 1931-1953, 1938-03-12

peak petroleum production (and concur
rent high price level for oil) will occur
far in advance of the ultimate exhaus-
ton Of the petroleum supplies.
A recent new mathematical principle
n makes 1t possible to closely prOx-
innate the peak petroleum produc-
ton for any desired combination of the
various opinions as TO probable future
discoveries and rate of production. Take,
for example, the more commonly accept
ed and fairly conservative view:
l. That the existing proved. recover
able oil reserves will be doubled, and
O. Production will increase at 25 per
cent less than the 1925 rate of in
crease
The application of this new principle
10 these specific conditions shows that
oil production will theoretically peak in
1943, with the practical error limited
to around two years. A detailed des-
scription of this principle and it spplica-
tion to the various multiples of the
presently known oil reserves is scheduled
for publication in a forthcoming Bulletin
of the American Association of Petroleum
Biologists If the reserves are tripled,
the theoretical peak as determined by
this principle falls in 1916; and if the
reserves are quadrupled the peak is
scheduled for 1850.
Political exigencies unfortunately OPP
crate against an impartial and detached
cross-seetion of scientific opinion on this
puzzling question, based on the purely
factual evidence Investigators of the
subject are familiar with the battling
reticence of the oil industry, by and large,
due presumably to the general apprehen-
sion that any alarm over a possible
shortage and high prices will precipitate
government control, and possibly nation
alization. 1t seems to be fact that New
Deal officialdom has a hungry eye on
the industry; and their ambitions have
been measurably advanced by the pre-
sent political complexion of the country.
1t would probably be crediting the
industry at large with undue perspicacity
to infer it might be purposely seeking
to defer possible government action until
it's reserves can be reasonably appraised
at 81 a barrel, compared with a present
limit of around SOC. But there are suf-
ficient other Immediately practical reasons
back of the seemingly authoritative re-
assurance of adequate supplies for many
years, to justify viewing these with some
suspicion.
The unacceptable fact that new oil dis
coveries have consistently exceeded re-
quirements through a quarter of a CEN
fury of rapidly increasing consumption
(from around 210 million barrels in 1910
to nearly six times that in 1887 is
generally regarded as of more signifi-
canoe IMAM SclSUllllc QbuuCttOuS. mere
are also the phenomenal increases in
the estimates of proved recoverable re-
serves during the past decade which tend
to destroy confidence in their value as
a guide to the probable life of the oil
supplies.
For example, the proved recoverable
reserve amounted to AS billion barrels
in 1925. But the production alone in
the subsequent 1926-35 period totaled
8 q hilliOn barrels while the reserves at
the first of 1885 had increased to 1876
billion barrels Some Is billion barrels
of oil were added to the proved recov-
cradle reserve during this period, or four
times the known reserve in 1886. This
unprecedented and extraordinarily per-
Torrance is persistently advanced as sub
stantial assurance that more or less par
aIlel additions to the presently known
reserves can be confidently anticipated
over the next decade, or more. In fact,
this is essentially the only point those
belonging to this school of thought make
for their case
Further relative increases in the re-
serves, of the same proportion as for
merly, are almost incredible. For ex-
ample, the quadrupling of the known
reserve in 1925 meant new discoveries
of some Is billion barrels; the same
relative expansion of our present re-
serve would call for new discoveries of
So billion barrels, exceeding by two
thirds the total discoveries since the
beginning of oil production.
Perspectives must also be heightened
to visualize the implications of the in
crease by two-thirds in oil consumption
during the 1926-37 period The oil in
dustry is outstripping increases in all
other major lines at a rate that points