Evening star., 1938-10-24

These fluctu-
ations of a downward curve IN a
year when there Is no election and
an upward curve when there is an
election are giving rise to suspicion
among the politically minded that
the New Deal regime, headed by
the master strategist in ALLEGATION,
Harry Hopkins, uses the w. P. A. in
certain localities to win votes. Con-
frmation Of these ideas are to be
found in the official records and
statements Of the Senate committee
investigating campaign expenditures
on which committee the Democrats
have a majority.
ALLEGATION More Extensive.
but why. 1t will be asked, Is 1t
necessary to have higher list OF
w. P. A. checks in an off-year con-
gressional election than in presi-
Dental election? The reason is that
in q national presidential election 1t
Is necessary only to concentrate in
few States, in fact in only nine
cities, whereas in a congressional
election of 435 seats in the House
and 80 or more seats in the Senate,
the job of ALLEGATION is not only more
extensive, but also more expensive.
If the reader is interested in exactly
how the ALLEGATION Of public funds
is used to swing a presidential elec-
ton, he might consult the october
% issue of the Saturday Evening
Post, wherein the writer gives de-
tailed tabulations indicating the rise
Of Democratic percentages wherever
A. A. A. or w. P. A. funds are used
and the decline of the Democratic
percentages wherever the subsidies
taper off below average
For these reasons any estimates
being made on the outcome of ma
tional election based on rules GUS
tomarily used are likely to be wrong.
Even the most up-to-date sampling
methods, while remarkably accurate
In the last two years, can be thrown
out Of line by the skillful ALLEGATION
OF Federal funds in close districts
and States.
Figure Normally Correct.
Thus the poll by DR.. Gallup, just
published. estimates the Republicans
will gain So seats in the House Of
Representatives. Normally and with
out the use OF public funds this would
be logical result as the party in pow
er always loses in an off year those
districts which it carried in a presi-
Dental election two years before, when
the top Of the ticket pulled the weak
local candidates through to victory by
reason of the American habit of
straight ticket voting.
But gain of SO seats by the Re-
publicans this year can be seriously
doubted because of the size Of the
". P. A. rolls. This correspondent
last summer predicted that there would
be not more than rs seats gained by
the Republicans this year in the House
of Representatives and that if the
number were over Is it would be
nearer that figure than SO. There is
no reason to change the estimate now
except to point out the possibility that
the gain may actually be under IS,
something that would have been dis
missed several weeks ago as extremely
optimistic from a Democratic point
Of view
Chances Will Improve.
As private employment increases
and there are evidences that the next
two weeks before election will see q
squirt in industry, Democratic chances
will improve, thus disposing for all
times. by the way. of the partisan
comments by prominent New Dealers,
such as Messrs. Jackson and Ickes,
that business engages in conspiracy
10 bring about depressions and un-
employment just before elections
Quite the contrary is true as the public
has had occasion to observe recently
in the action of the automobile COM
panies in bringing men back to work
and in the predictions of better busi-
ness from men like Alfred P. Sloan Of
General Motors, who were inclined to
be pessimistic last June about the
business outlook.
Business is improving and workers
are getting their jobs back, and the
w. P. A. is taking care of a bigger
hst Of unemployed than ever before.
To add all this up, the Republicans,
as the opposition party, will be lucky
to make gain Of 25, and the impor-
tant after effect of the election rather
will be in the trend it reveals toward
the assertion of an independence by
many Representatives and Senators
elected under the Democratic banner,
but actually not far different in their
opposition to New Deal extremes from
many Of the Republicans.
Businessmen will derive a certain
measure OF encouragement from such
trend and psychologically this will
help to improve conditions because the
attitude OF fear in industry toward
planning for the future is a factor In
the rate Of growth of commercial ex-
pansions.
(copyrieht. 1e3s)