Evening star., 1938-08-02
.UPTURN FORECAST
IN FOREIGN TRADE
Increased Imports Likely
as Result of General
U. S. Recovery.
By ]. G. DONLEY,

ny y. ". DONAExs
/ Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, Aug. 2.-On the the
ory that our exports are continuing
to hold up well, while general busi-
ness recovery, now getting under way,
should result in a marked increase in
imports (Which fell OF heavily in
the first half of this year,. many
observers are predicting brisk up
turn in the transatlantic shipping
business. as we'll as intercoastal trade,
during the last five months Of this
year.
Allowing for the fact that a por-
| tion of the decline in import trade
in the first six months OF this year
was due to smaller purchases Of farm
and food products abroad, 1t still re-
mains true that the compelling rea-
son back of the decline OF more than
$500. 900 900 in our merchandise i'm
ports was the sharp recession In busi-
ness in this country. Our importa-
tions Of raw materials were particu-
larly hard hit. and it is believed that
the hardening of commodity prices,
now beginning to follow in the wake
Of rising consumer buying. will tend
to put our purchases Of such materials
again on the upgrade.
Expected to Bring Rise.
In brief. since business depression
here brought our imports down. it is
believed that recovery on this side in
any marked degree will be bound to
send the East-to-West ocean freight
movement upward again.
Our exports for the first half Of
1888 ran more than $50 900. 900 above
the first six months of 1897. But in
the later months Of that period ex-
ports as well as imports were rum
ming under preceding months and
also under the like months of 1887.
exports, in June amounted to $232.-
686, 900, as compared with $257, 1885,
900 in May and with $265, ,34l 900 in
June. 1887. The value Of general
| imports goods entered for storage in
bonded warehouses. along with goods
which entered merchandising chan
nels immediately upon arrivaD was
$l48.260, 900 in May and $286 ,224, 900
in June, 1887.
Climbed in 1897.
| It is interesting to note that in
1887, in comparison with the previous
year, even though marked deteriora-
ton in general business conditions
set in in the last four months Of the
year. our imports increased by $66l.-
100000, while our exports rose by
$500. 900 900.
Such gains were achieved despite
exchange difaculties and the contin-
ued unsettled state of foreign politics.
Perhaps we are now no nearer the
so-called "stabilization" OF interna-
tional currencies than We were in
1887, but the world is learning that
| the expected benefits of national self
suficiency are illusory, and conscious
efforts are being made to widen the
area in which certain measure OF
de facto stabilizati ton can be attained.
There is q tendency to level down
the artificial barriers to international
trade. and all in all grounds are ap-
pearing for the hope that, under the
lead of the United States and Great
Britain, world trade will return to
somewhere near the conditions ex-
isting before the World War.
A great deal hinges upon the trade
agreement now under negotiation
with Great Britain and recently re-
ported as running into hard sledding
AN Anglo-American trade agree
ment," says Eugene p. Thomas, presi-
dent of the National Foreign Trade
Council, Inc, would clear the chan
nels of world trade-clogged by such
impediments as the Ottawa trade
agreements and bilateral pacts. OF
which over 800 now exist.
(copyrisht. 193sJ