The Kennewick courier-reporter. [volume] (Kennewick, Wash.) 1914-1938, 1938-04-21
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTs

nit the country. at the beglnn1ng OF
last fall, most expert opinion leaned
toward the view that it didn't
amount to much, constituted but a
momentary dip in the long-pull re-
covery cycle that began in 1885, and
would shortly be over and forgot
ten. When, despite these predic-
tions, the slump not only continued
but grew steadily worse, the usual
forecast was that it would continue
throughout 1897, but would be over
come by a marked spring business
Improvement. - 49,.
Today, this forecast has been ex-
pIoded-spring is over, and, while
improvement has occurred, and been
better than seasonal in some lines,
the grip of the recession" is still
strong. Sufficient time has passed
for authorities to adequately review
the causes of the decline, and the
influences that have maintained it.
There is more realistic, factual
thinking going on now-as against
the "wishful thinking" that char
acterized the statements of even the
best experts some months ago. It is
probable that the current forecasts
of the country's outstanding econo-
mists are more important, and have
behind them a better basis for
sound prophecy, than those of the
past. What are the experts think
ing?
Newsweek recently questioned 40
of these experts sand "a of them
gave complete replies-as to the
business outlook for the near future.
The "a men answering constitute an
unusually representative cross-sec-
ton Of opinion they include con-
sentative authorities, such as Leon
ard Ayres and O. M. w. Sprague;
government experts such as Willis
Ballinger of the Federal Trade Com
mission and Mordecai Ezekial of the
Department of Agriculture; econo-
mists close to operating industry,
such as Willard Thorp of Dun and
Bradstreet, and Rufus Tucker Of
General Motors, and more or less
"left-wingers," such as Rexford
Tugwell and Leon Henderson.
Three of the "a forecast that there
will be q further slump in business.
Three forecast no change. Eighteen
forecast slight Improvement. Nonei
forecast marked improvement.
To make the forecasts as exact
as possible, Newsweek asked the
economists to state where, in their
opinion, the seasonally adjusted in
dustrial index of the Federal Re-
serve Board would stand in May.
This index reached 118 in 1929, aver
aged ITO in 1897, and in February
hit three-year low Of 70. The low
est prediction of its May point was
IS; the highest SO, and the average
of all predictions, Gil. For June, |
the average of all predictions placed
the index at 818, with the lowest |
forecast "a, the highest 81. Sixteen
Of the experts say that June will be |
better than May; five forecast a
drop; three anticipate no change.
To sum up, If these authorities are
right, there is no reason for either |
optimism or pessimism today. Bus
mess will improve before the end of |
of summer-but to very slight ex-
tent. The recession" will continue |
to hang on-but it will not grow
stronger. In brief, the economists |
period now, during which condi- |
tions will be just about as they are
at present, with the trend upward.
Newsweek adds that nearly all of |
the "a answering specified that their
forecasts were based on two assump-
tons: first, that there will be no
major, startling foreign develop
ments In the next 8 months; Sec
ond, that here will be no import
ant change in the policy of the adj
ministration toward business. I'm
looked for occurrences in either of
these matters could, of course,
smash even the best forecasts to
Smithereens.
The last issue of this column dis
cussed the pros and cons of the adj
ministration government reorgani-
zation bill, and offered the opinion
that the measure would pass, plus
one or two important amendments,
such as that authorizing Congress
to override an act of the President
under the bill by a majority vote,
3ncfood If tho fuO.thirdS vOto ar.