Evening star., 1938-09-04


generally appreciated by the pub
lic--is that the Continental nations
which keep the worlds foreign Offices in
fear and trembling are very much weaker
by virtually all military standards than
their potential enemies.
What makes Germany and Italy feared
at the moment is that they have developed
to higher point than their neighbors what
was known in the Imperial German staff
school as the will to war" Their military
machines. like the motors Of racing car,
are tuned to peak efficiency Therefore it
is likely that in the initial phases of
general European conflict they could strike
quicker and more effective blows than
their enemies
But cool analysis OF the actual military
strength of each side in long-ter struggle
shows the advantage to be with the prob
able enemies Of the Fascist bloc This is
true by almost every standard Of judgment
standing armies. reserves, naval forces,
gold reserves and industrial equipment
necessary to keep going" in the face of
steady drain on manpower, munitions and
food.
That general European war would be
OF long duration-at least year or two
is generally accepted by military theorists
today. The belief once popular in the
Italian general staff that because Of the
rapid development of aviation and mechan-
lied forces war might be won almost over
night by sudden paralyzing blows at an
enemy's capital and strategic military GEN.
ters has been diScredited by events in Spain
and the Far East. Madrid has been bombed
hundreds OF times but it still holds out
against the rebels. No Chinese city has
been surrendered solely because of air raids
In every case where the japanese have
gained control Of strategic Chinese center
the od-line infantry have fought their
way in just as they would have done in
the days before the airplane became
military weapon
World War Truisms Still Valid.
Most military experts hold that the
truisms of the World War period are still
valid today Wars are won or lost by
the oughboy"-although his own firing
power and the mechanical forces support
ing him have been vastly increased by
tanks, bombing planes and automatic rifles
The battleship still is the backbone of
the fleet" And the nation with superior
financial and economic resources is likely
to hold the winning cards in war of long
duration-unless its morale is weakened by
corruption and social injustice in high
places, as was true OF Imperial Russia in
1917
Czechoslovakia is the focal point OF war
danger in Europe today. And general
struggle resulting from German invasion
of that state to establish what Berlin con-
siders the rights of the Sudeten German
minority probably would find German and
Italian arms ranged against those Of
Czechoslovakia, France, Russia and Great
Britain. AT least. that would be the line
up II each nation stood by the treaties,
agreements or declarations which it has
made.
Rome and Berlin are bound together by
a military alliance. Japan. the third men,
ber of the Rome Berlin Toxic axis, might
conceivably aid its allies by an attack on
Soviet Russia in the Far East, but because
Of obvious geographical factors it would
play no part in the European theater Of
war.
On what might be called the "sllied
side" both France and Soviet Russia are
bound by treaty to assist Czechoslovakia
II it is invaded. Great Britain is tied to
France by what is in fact if not in name
a military alliance, and, as in 1914. Britain
could not afford to see France defeated by
a powerful nation which would dominate
the Channel ports.
Three Question Mark States.
The Scandinavian countries and Switzer-
land might be expected, as before, to re-
main neutral. Three European powers
might be considered as uncertain or
question mark states-Poland Yugo-
slavia and Rumania. The unfortunate
many, could hardly avoid war. But War;
saws policy during the last half decade has
been so wavering that its choice Of friends
Is unpredictable. Rumania and Yugoslavia
are bound to Czechoslovakia by the Little
Entente" alliance, but in the last few years
Rumania has been drawn into the Balkan
and Yugoslavia into the Italian orbit.
Their loyalty to Prague is questionable.
Assume then, what seems most likely
= war between Germany and Italy on the
one side and Czechoslovakia, Russia, France
and Great Britain on the other. How
would the balance Of military power stand?
The Fascist bloc would take the field with
a standing army, ready to strike at a mo-
ment's notice, of 1881 200 men-650, 900
from Germany and 1881 200 from Italy.
II Warsaw became convinced that its
chances of victory were greater on the
German-1talian side, it could add 1872, ,427
troops to the alliance, bringing its total
strength to 2,3l3627
Against this formidable force the allies
could pit standing armies totaling 2,752,557
men. drawn from the following nations;
The British Empire, 3s4.7So; France, $751;