Evening star., 1938-06-06
APRIL VOLUMES
SAG 19PER CENT
U. S. Trade Barometer off
Sharply After Minor Drop
in March.
Special plspa tch to The star.

NEW YORK. June 6--After only a
minor drop from February to March,
the United States trade barometer
slumped to 1853 tprelihinary) for
April, losing 80 points in the month.
This position of the barometer indi-
Gated that consumer spending was
running % per cent lower than in the
1928-1932 period. and 10 per cent
lower than in the corresponding month
Of 1887.
Trade barometers for the United
States and for each Of the 20 regions,
into which it Is divided, are computed
by DR.. L. D. H. Weld, director Of re-
search of McCann- Erickson, Inc, and
published monthly in Dun's Review.
Based on bank debts, department
store sales, new-car registrations and
life insurance sales, these barometers
reflect trends Of consumer spending.
According to the regional indexes,
trade volume in March compared un-
favorably with that Of last year in all
sections of the country. Percentage
declines from March, 1887, ranged
from approximately per cent in the
Memphis and New Orleans regions to
SO per cent In the Cleveland and De-
troit areas. with the majority-- II of
the 20 regions-down 20 per cent or
more. This contrasted~ with the record
of March, 1887. when trade volume in
every region was higher than that Of
the year before and, in II of the 20
regions. by more than IS per cent.
Declined Despite Easter.
''T'he stimulus to trade usually af-
forded by Easter purchasing failed this
year to stem the downward drift of
the index OF consumer spending" the
text accompanying the charts of
these indexes in the current issue of
Dun's Review points out. with sea-
sonal adjustment. but without correc-
ton for the influence of Easter, the
United States trade barometer declined
from 79.4 in March to 1853 In April
preliminary. Three Of the factors in
the index were higher in April, but
with advances smaller than those
usually made at this season OF the
year; the fourth factor, bank debts,
failed to make any gain during the
month.
April consumer expenditures, which
included substantial volume of Eas-
ter trade. still fell below April, 1887,
when Easter trade was past and gone.
The best that can be said is that the
month showed up better than March
did, in comparison with the corre-
spending period of last year In March
the trade barometer was % per cent
lower than in March. 1887. while in
April it was down 10 per cent COM
pared with April, 1887.
"A truer indication perhaps of the
extent OF spending, in comparison with
the past. will be revealed by a review
of the March-April indexes OF recent
years. At 1871, the average for these
two ponths in 1888 was considerably
below composites for the same months
in 1887 and 1896; about per cent be-
low these months in 1885.
"As in industrial activity and pay
rolls. the curtailment in consumer
spending was somewhat sharper in
this recession, than in the last one.
From March, 1929, the peak month
of the period. to April, 1890, the trade
barometer fell Is per cent. From
March. 1887, the high month for this
cycle, to April, 1898, the barometer
dropped 26 per cent. Price declines,
of course, affected the dollar-volume
figures, but in both recessions these
occurred at about the same rate. as
the N. I. C. B. cost of living index fell
IA per cent in l929-39 and l.3 per
cent in 1937-38."