Milford chronicle., 1938-01-28
ECONOMIC HICHLICHTS
happenings That Affect The Dinner
Pals, Dividend Checks And Tax
Bills OF Every Individual
tiOnal and International Prob
lens InseparabIe From
Local Welfare

Local HeiIare
From the business standpoint, tn
year 1887 can be compared to tn
year 1929. During the first half, in
dustrial production rose with pleas
ing steadiness--as it did in 1929. Sc
curity prices moved gradually up
ward, with no important set-backs
The bad signs were far outweighe,
by the good signs, and it seemed (
certainty that the recovery move
ment would go ahead without i'm
pediment. Then, early in the seconC
half of the year, industrial produc.
tion started to fall off slightly
again, as 1t did in mid-I929. And in
October, the values of securities
took the fastest drop in American
history, with shares as a whole de-
preciating approximately As per cent
in a period of few weeks. There
after, the business indiees started
on swift decline which wiped out
most of the progress that had been
made since 1884. In many lines the
last week of the year was the worst,
in spite of a genenerally good Christ
mas retail trade.
The financial periodicals have all
published their traditional annual
review and forecast" issues. General
tenor is expressed by Business
Week, when it says: "The year 1888
opens on a low note, but chances
are better than fair that it will end
on a substantially higher one" The
Wall Street Journal hopes that ''the
influence of mental attitudes on the
volume of business transactions has
reached its maximum" and
states that probabilities are that
the present business depression will
not laE far into 1885," Individual
prognosticators, such as Ayres and
Babson, seem generally convinced
that this depression will be short
lived. There are few who feel that
it is destined to turn into another
major depression unless a drastic
reversal of many present policies
occurs, which is unlikely. Some Of
the most clearsighted Of the exparts
belong in the group which see the
future as being far from bright.
To get down to actual facts, the
statistics are not favorable. During
1886 and 1887, the automobile in
dustry probably did more than any
other to provide employment, pur-
chasing power and to stimulate in
dustrial activity in general. 1t was
exbected that this industry would
have another big year in 1888. But
that hope, in all probability, viii not
materialize. The used-car problem
has become acute; dealers inven-
tories are at excessive levels. AS a
result, new car sales have undergone
an exceedingly sharp drop. This Is
reflected in curtailment of produc-
tion by the industry, with lay-offs OF
labor and plants working on part
week basis. Both General Motors
and Chrysler, which issue figures,
RECENTLY cut production and payyro3lll.ss
heavily. The other member or the
Big Three, Ford, does not issue fig-
ures. but it is believed that a similar
condition exists in this company.
The steel industry closed the year
at the lowest rate of production
since September, 1884. However
here is an encouraging factor here
"a steady rise in the markets for
iteel scrap, plus stable prices, leads
O the belief that consumption cf the |
,asic metal is running strongly
head of production.
m fhn rfQEf nj /
he railroads has also been major
influence The industry
las reduced its purchasing to the
,are necessity point. Business, IN
General, hopes that the ICC will
,ermit the requested increase in
reight rates, in order that railway
and employment may be
aised.
A less specific, but highly impor-
ant factor is the continuing war"
,etween the Roosevelt Administra-
ion and business. The recent
peeches of Ickes and Jackson add
d fuel to the fires of investor pes
imism. However, the Presidents
wo latest addresses-to Congress
nd at the Jackson Day dinner,
rhiIe far from reassuring to busi-
ess, were milder than many ex- ,
ected. 1t is the general opinion
nat Mr.. Roosevelt is marking time
nd testing the state of the politi-
al weather through the acts and
llks of his underlings, and that he =
as not made up his mind which !,
ay to turn. There is still chance !
at he may steer the New Deal in :
somewhat more conservative di- :
ction.
On the favorable side, the signs =
e largely psychological. All the y
lancial magazines lay heavy stress Il
the apparently growing congress 4
lnal sentiment in favor of cooper
ion with business and the allevia-
IN or repeal of laws which busi-
SIS feels are hampering. The Il
uation seems a little better than
was a few months ago-in time h
declining production, labor tends p
temper its demands on manage q
snt and there is less sympathy n
long the rank and file in favor of n
dical action. There will be much
IS talk about higher wages and
urter hours Until the depression is
ded.
The price situation has both its
Torable and unfavorable side. The
;oo danIfro oorfi,,t4oa in enifp Of