Evening star., 1938-01-02
INCOME CLIMBS
NEAR 1929 LEVEL
Big Sag in 1888 Unlikely,
Except in Certain
Isolated Crops.
~ CAMBRIDGE Associates.

exceeding supply and closed with sup
ply exceeding demand. Nevertheless,
it 10 expected that when all reports
are in, gross income will be only Is
per cent or less under that Of the
year 1929, and the ratio of income
received to prices paid will be at least
as GOOD as in that year. Looking for
ward into 1898, it is difficult to foresee
the development of any substantial
downtrend in farmers fortunes, eX-
cept in certain isolated crops where
record yields have created conditions
of oversupply. OF these, cotton is the
most outstanding.
For January, 1887, the Bureau OF
Agricultural Economics reported prices
received by farmers at 13l, based on
the average for the years 1910 to 1914.
Prices paid by farmers were stated
at 1870 and the buying power OF farm
products at l0l.
This latter figure was higher than
for any yearly average since 1920.
BY October the index of buying power
had dropped to 88. While prices OF
industrial products dropped in the
more recent months, they have not de-
clined as swiftly as those for agricult-
ural products
In terms of farmer purchasing
power, 1887 will thus be roughly equiv
alent to the average for the years
1925 through 1929.
Ralance Is Sought
In other days such a record would
have been satisfying. With the new
dynamic concept of economies, how
ever. it is admitted that something
must be done to attempt to preserve
the closest approach to balance that
has yet been seen. Already there are
threats to the status quo in declining
commodity prices-to what eventual
extent. nobody knows. The size of
the problem of regulating the financial
return of the farming plant, however.
has been no obstacle in the path of
broad-scale efforts toward its solu-
ton And the preservation of balance
promises to be harder nut to crack
than the return to normalcy.
First of all there is the problem of
cotton. With 1887 crop second only
to one previous harvest in the history
of the Nation. and with new uses for
cotton developing less swiftly than the
displacement of other uses by artificial
fibers, there is created a situation
which needs immediate. not to say in
genious, attention. When we add to
this the fact that Brazil, China and
other countries have taken advantage
of the United States price control
venture, expanding production by mil
lions of bales, and underselling our
cotton in world markets, the way out
is seen to be increasingly beset with
difficulties.
Finally, having become accustomed
to supply Japan with raw cotton to
take care of her aggressive march to-
ward domination of the world market
for cotton fabrics, we suffer from the
fact that production schedules have
been cut two-thirds since the begin
ming Of Sino-Japanese hostilities. In
stead Of exporting 100000 bales per
annum or more than half a normal
crop, We now have to content with
an outside demand of approximately
5,500000.
Tobacco Growers Favored.
Tobacco growers have enjoyed un-
usual prosperity in the last few years,
with large crops and high prices. But
this years bumper crop complicates
the situation. And again the Far
Eastern situation contributes to the
difficulty, since China has for years
been the second largest export market
for American flue-cured leaf Re-
striction of growing programs is i'm
mediately necessary if serious price
declines are to be avoided
These problems of immediate con-
cern draw attention away from the
fact that the Department of Agricul-
ture is now attempting to set long
range program as a panacea for all
the evils inherited by tillers of the soil.
Mechanization of American agricul-
ture came at time when the growth
Of population had begun to slow down.
Thus the problem of expanding de-
uAio Va oCAANeAAAS dSASo5S. AAiS
World War placed demands on our pro-
ductive facilities which caused us to
farm lands improbable to cultivate
in normal times Hence the whole
problem of retiring such land from use
to prevent erosion, damaging to neigh
boring productive property. A thou
sand other problems of more or less
important nature are now and will be
given attention by administrators of
farm welfare, and not the least dis
couraging aspect of the situation is
the tremendous number of conflicting
interests that are involved
Farmers Optimistic.
While all this concern is being ex-
pressed for his welfare, the average
American farmer is enjoying the clos
est approach to prosperity that he has
seen in a decade. He is optimistic as
to the future and Is planning increased
production in many lines Lower prices
for corn have encouraged withholding
Of hogs for the purposes of feeding to
heavier weights and planning for
larger pig crops next spring.
The prospect of large carry-over OF
wheat than for any time since 1892 is
not particularly disturbing, for sup
u l.