Evening star., 1938-01-16
BY THOMAS r. HENRY.
MERICA is about to stop orou

4 MERICA is about to stop growing
~ Between 1920 and 1880 the pop
~ ulation Of the United States in
creased approximately 100000
A little of this was due to immigration, but
most of it to births. In the last year of
this decade the death rate was 1913 per
thousand. The birth rate, which had been
falling for more than half century, was
1877. The net gain-so it seemed-was al
most 8 per thousand It looked as If the
population was increasing rapidly. If
this kept up, nation of 200, 900 600 con-
hdently could be expected in the next
century.
But there was a catch in it. BY COM
plicated statistical procedures such men
as DR.. Louis Dublin of the Metropolitan
Life Insurance Co. have been balancing the
birth rate against the age grouping of
the population. Those born in any decade
must replace not only those who die in the
same decade. but also those who pass into
the non-reproductive classes through age
or otherwise. What counts, SO far as the
statistical trend is concerned, is the ratio
Of births to deaths in the reproductive age
groups The population was increasing
because men and women were living longer.
There would be constantly increasing
group who had passed beyond the age of
producing children when they eventually
did die.
A new basis for measurement was found
the ratio of children born to women in
specific age groups to the number of deaths
IN those age groups. This shows the ex-
tent to which, in any given years, women
Of child-bearing age are supplying suf-
ficient children to replace their own num-
bers in the next generation Thus can be
calculated the intrinsic. rather than the
gross, birth and death rates.
Barely Duplicating Self.
The statisticians get the astounding re-
suit that the actual ratio of births to deaths
In 1880, assuming the census of that year
to have been approximately correct, was
16.9 to 1853 per thousand. The child-bear-
ing generation was barely duplicating itself.
Others didn't count, so far as the growth
sate Of the country was concerned
Will the population Of child-bearing age
be as large in 1850 as in 1890? The statistics
show clearly that 1t will not. In spite of
the 100000 increase there were actually
fewer 5-year-old children in 1880 than in
1920. So there will be fewer men and
women Of Is in 1850 than in 1910 Obvi-
ously there will be fewer of IS in 1860
than IN 1885, and so on for all the repro
ductive ages. Unless they are analyzed
in this way. gross birth and death rates
have no meaning in relation to the growth
Of the population.
The growth picture is contained in a
report just presented to the American As
eociation for the Advancement Of Science
BY Frederick Osborn, noted population ex-
port and statistician. If the weighted
birth rate continues the same as in 1880,
Mr. Osborn concludes, the country will
keep on growing SO that there will be q
population Of 1so0o0,00O in 1880. II the
decline continues at the same rate as in
the past, peak of about 100000, 900 will
have been reached by that time, after
which the birth rate will cease to balance
the death rate and a slow but steady de-
cline will set in 1t may finally level of
At about the present population, or little
less There is no reason to suppose that
trend Of declining birth rates which has
been in progress steadily for almost a
hundred years suddenly will stop, especially
since the reasons for it are just as potent
as ever.
Table on Age Trend.
30 the Nation today may be considered
as Just little more or a little less than its
ultimate size. Here is the way the trend
in shaping up: