The Waterbury Democrat., 1938-12-31

SuSIaA hcSS1N6 pIOuuCClOIl 1Ll-
 It compared with no in 1887; l05 in 1896; 90 in 1885; 30 in 1894, and " in 1883.
 The index opened the year at 30 per cent of the l923-2S average, declined to 76 in May and then jumped to slightly above 100 in November, holding at high level through the last month.
 Business men anticipated fur ther gains next year providing no international calamity developed. Hope was held for reopening of capital markets and more active production in capital goods lines. Big things were expected from the building and automobile indus tries. Steel mills were expected to step up production, aided by buying under the national defense plan.
 Unfavorable items in the 1899 picture included international un- certainties, unstable world curren- cies, fears of higher taxes, unbal- anced budget, monopoly inquiry, railroad troubles, and government competition with business, notably in the utility field.
 The 1888 recovery came in the face of intermittent European war scares, belief by some the national economy was headed toward state Socialism and a record national debt.
 Factors behind it were the pump priming spending by the government, an improved domestic labor situation. depletion of inven. tories, and the fact the recession because of its shortness had not diminished surpluses.
 National Income Down
 Government economists estimated national income paid out for 1888 would total around $65, 900 900 900, only 58 per cent below 1887, but private sources doubted this and placed the figure nearer $55,000,- O00, 1000.
 Dividend payments by vorpora- tions totaled $3,400, ,000, 900 for the year, against $4,500, ,000, 900 for 1897. All branches curtailed except avia- ton, which had record year.
 Farm income showed decline of less than F per cent from 1897, thanks to heavy government pay ments. It totaled $7,600 900 900, against $8,600, ,O00, 900 in the previ- ous year.
 Industrial earnings dropped sharply in 1888. Capital goods in- dustries were in the ''red" most of the year. Final quarter profits irn- proved. Earnings of workers were swelled in the closing months and wage levels were maintained at the high rates that prevailed in 1887.
 Employment hit a new low since the depression in May and then improved until three million found jobs before the year.end. At the close of the year employment was estimated at 45,5O0,O00 persons in private industry, against a recov- cry peak of 47,S03, 900 in Septem- Der. 1887. Indications were un- employment would total around e,7O0.000 at the end of the year, against ll,326,OOo at the end of 1887.
 Capital markets slumped as bus mess was reticent to launch ex- pansion programs. Total financing = government and private for 1888 approximated $4.75l ,635, 900, against $3,904, ,710,000 in 1887. All the improvement was traceable to government activity. Corporate fi- nancing amounted to only $1,9l9,- 6el 900. against $2,336 .975 900 in 1897. Only $836 ,332, 900 of this represented new money, against q ,l58,527, 900 in 1887.
 Building at High Rate
 Building featured the industrial recovery. The F. w. Dodge Corpor- ation, estimated the years total construction awards would come to $3,240. .000. 900, the best for any year since 1880. Federal aid was a big factor in the increase.
 F. w. Dodge forecast 1889 con- struction probably above $S,5O0,- 000, 900. even if Federal activity in this field is reduced.
 Steel operations rose from 1922 per cent at the end of 1887 to above 62 per cent in November. The years average is estimated at little above 70 per cent of capa- city, against 724 per cent in 1887; 68y5 in 1886: 48.5 in 1885, and 37.4 per cent in 1884.
 Automobile production for the year was estimated at 2.600, 900. the smallest since 1883. Production was active late in the year and predictions were made that the 1889 output would rise sharply, some estimates being as high as 4,O00,O 900 for the new year.
 Car loadings dropped to the sec ond lowest level since the World War and then rose until the 1887 level was passed. The total for the year is estimated at 30,O00,000 cars, against 37,992,9 2,928 in 1887.
 Crude oil output and electricity production held close to records set in the preceding year, while retail sales picked up in the clos ing months of the year and rrossAd lQ97 in f,hvsical volume,