Evening star., 1938-05-02
(Second OF a series.)
BY JOHN GUNTHER.

HANKOW, China, May 2 (N.AN.A.).
Worms do turn sometimes. So do
dragons. When the dragon is the
symbol of 100000, 900 people, and it
not only turns but snaps like a rattle
snake, the spectacle is challenging.
China after years of patient or supine
prostration, has turned on Japan.
China-at LASTS really resisting
Japan aggression
The military position changes too
rapidly to make prophecy safe. No
one can tell how long Chinese stamina
can resist the machine-power pressure
OF the Japanese. But, at the moment,
following signal victories in South
Shantung. the Chinese are confident
almost to the point of exuberance.
They have surrounded and all but an
initiated japanese Army: they have
harassed the Japanese and pushed
them back in series of signal VIC
tories. This may not last. But few
experts would deny that China, after
nine months of warfare, is in a far
better situation than was anticipated.
Reasons Tor commence.
The reasons for Chinese confidence,
as observed on the spot in two busy
weeks in Hankow, seem to be the
following:
First, japanese lines of communica-
ton are uncomfortably ragged, and
Chinese guerrilla tactics have been
exceedingly effective.
Second the Chinese national army,
rebuilt after the debacle of the
Shanghai-Nanking fighting last au-
tumn, has improved immeasurably.
Third, whereas the Japanese must
advance in order to win-and ad-
vances have become increasingly ex-
pensive-the Chinese need only to
stand pat and resist. The longer the
war lasts, the better it is for China.
The Chinese have plenty of room to
retreat in, if further retreat Is neces-
Sary. AS long as the Chinese continue
to fight, they are in good position.
Many Chinese with whom I talked
think that the key to the present stu
alton was the fall of Marking on De-
cember l3. Japan lost the war by
capturing Nanking," one military ex-
pert put it. Doubtless this is too
strong statement; what my friend
meant was that, when Nanking fell,
the Japanese thought the war would
finish. But the Chinese, even with
their capital gone, continued to resist.
They rejected peace overtures. Strange
enemies! Puzzled, the japanese were
confronted with two alternatives, ca
to keep what territory they had gained
and try to stay put there, or (b)
progress to war of conquest for the
subjugation Of all China. Apparently
they have chosen the latter course.
And the subjugation Of a territory
like China is terrific job.
Reasons for Victories.
Detailed reasons for the Chinese
victories in South Shantung are given
here as follows:
l.. Excellent new troops from
Kwangsi, under the first-rate Kwangsi
general, Ii Tsung-jen, we're in action
for the first time
2. The Chinese high command ex-
plicitly followed the advice OF its
highly professional and competent
German advisers.
3. Guerrillas, especially the 9th
Route (Communist) Army, had been
playing havoc with Japanese commu-
nications.
T. Chinese morale, equipment, dis
cipline. and leadership were better
than at any previous time in Chinese
history.
If you try to survey the military
position today and strike a balance
sheet, the following items become
evident. China has perhaps 100000
men under arms. No one knows the
exact number. probably not even Gen.
eralissimo Chang Kai-shek himself.
OF these, perhaps 100000 are first-line
troops. Roughly, another 100000 have
been reorganized by German instruc-
tors into reserve divisions.
The japanese, on their side, are
supposed to have between 100000 and
100000 troops in China. This, accord
ing to Chinese estimates, is almost
half their total army, since 100000
japanese troops are thought to be on
duty in Manchukuo, with another
100000 at home in Japan.
japanese strategy at the moment
is to cross the Yellow River in full
force and capture the Lunghai Rail-
way, the chief east-west railway of
China. japanese troops are concen-
trated above this railway aiming at
three points, each junction of north
south railways-Suchow, Chengchow
and Tungkwan. But the japanese de-
feat at Taierhchwang, above Suchow,
for a time relieved pressure on the