Evening star., 1938-10-25

20 per cent above normal. Some Of
this big production went to I'LL the
gaps left by drought shortages. But
farm prices quickly declined under the
weight Of the new surpluses. Only
one season of ordinary weather was
needed to bring to the farmers atten-
ton once more the tremendous need
for making profound adjustments to
a changed world.
Congress, called into special session
by President Roosevelt, hurried to
repair the damage and enacted the
Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1898.
For two full years. because Of the
courts action. agriculture had had to
get along without the protection of
an adequate program for surplus con-
troll. Under the new act, programs for
cotton and corn have been successful
this year in keeping any great quantity
Of new surplpses Of these commodities
from being added to those already
piled up. The new act was too late to
affect wheat harvested in 1888 because
the greater part of the wheat crop
harvested in 1898 was seeded in the
fall Of 1887, before the new act was
passed. But the wheat program Just
now being launched should be equally
effective in preventing substantial
additions to the wheat surplus In 1899.
Surplus Problem Great.
Since the American agricultural
plant as whole has a productive
capacity that is chronically too large
for its available markets, the surplus
problem appears in great variety of
farm products. It appears most strik-
ingly in the great staple crops. But
1t appears also in fruits and vegetables,
and in livestock products such as
meats, eggs and milk.
In this situation, only certain al
ternatives are open to farmers. There
is the first alternative of doing MOTH
ing about it. But, as I have shown,
the experience of the years following
1921, eliminating in the disaster of
1881 and 1882, proves that letting sur
pluses accumulate and prices fall does
not solve anything. Because farmers
must have a minimum Of income to
keep their farms and their families
going, the lower prices fall the more
farmers must produce. As their buy
ing power shrinks. business activity
in the cities falls off and workers are
thrown out Of work. Misery settles
like blight over the farms. and hun
ger stalks the city streets. Both farm
ers and city workers repudiated that
heartless course of action in 1882, and
I am sure that neither group ever
wants to 60 back to it.
So much for that alternative. What
else can farmers do? Well. some peo-
pie think farmers can get the Gov
ernment to fix their prices and can
then 60 on producing all they want to.
have pointed out to farmers as en-
phatically as knew how, that such q
plan would not only soak the con-
sumers but would sink the farmers
themselves.
Leaving out the possibility OF short
sighted magic like that, and looking
at the realities of supply and demand,
what can farmers do? They have
only two principal choices. They can
adjust their supply or they can try to
expand their markets
Need for Market Cited.
Back in 1884, wrote a pamphlet
entitled America Must Choose" In
that pamphlet I pointed out the des-
perate need Of agriculture to find new
export markets to replace those that
had been lost. pointed out that
to regain export markets for our farm
products we would have to modify our
own tariffs and let in some imports
My idea then was that a moderate
course OF action was needed. The
sensible course. thought, was to make
moderate trade adjustments 50 as to
get back at least part OF our mar
kets abroad, and to make moderate
adjustments in our farm production at
home. As to the home market, as
sumed that restoration Of our workers
to full employment and adequate pay
would do all that could be done in that
direction.
That was my analysis in 1894. What
Is the situation today? The situation
is that with wars and rumors of wars
abroad, restoration Of the old type of
trade on a large scale
has not come about. Perhaps, in spite
OF all our efforts, we may not succeed
in restoring much of it within the next
few years. 1t seems that any greatly
increased volume of export outlets can
not be found for our farmers, and
while they may benefit from some in
creases in exports, in the main they
will have to look to something else to
solve their surplus problem. The Brit