Evening star., 1938-07-24

Sullivan, claimed
c.. u,...,,. one OF the prizes
the other day.
He discovered. elaborated and pub
lished that II there were per cent
shift in sentiment in certain dlstrlcS
the party of which he is a distln-
euished propaganda would win 81
seats in the House Of Representatives.
Thirty additional Republican Con-
eressmen would not make oent
in the Democratic majority. IL
would be something like winning ~
cents in the Irish sweepstakes But
that Is not the most entertaining lea
ture of the argument. Mr.. SULLIVAN
A qlutton for tatiStics-surVeyeo tne
vote in all districts where the Demo-
Gratis won last time by per cent
margin, calculated, by some system
of higher mathematics which he does
not reaveal, the recession OF Roose-
welt popularity, and so achieved the
desired result. l would not question
the accuracy of his statistics for 4
moment or the deflniteness OF his
results-providing his premises were
accepted. However. the per cent
theory, beloved by political ngure
iugglers, can prove almost anything,
For example, S per cent change In
the vote Of a single State would nave
made Charles Evans Hughes the war
President instead of Woodrow Wilson.
Before that a shift of S per cent OF
the votes in selected States would
have elected William Jennings Bryan
President.
The Marie Of Per Cent.
Five per cent OF the delegates to
the 1920 Republican convention would
have nominated Gen. Leonard Wood
or Gov Lowden had they changed at
the correct period Of that convention.
OF course, to get that result you would
have to pick the delegations, much
as Mr.. Sullivan picked the congress
sional districts 10 achieve his Q. E. D.
BY the same token, this magical
percentage applied TO certain State
delegations might have 50 aided the
stop Roosevelt" group at the Chicago
convention in 1892 that the ballotine
would have gone on indefinitely and
possibly have brought about another
nomination on the John w. Davis
order
These maybe-sos and perhapses could
be enlarged without limit. A change
of q single vote-approximately per
81 hn 70 xynI,1H q 10
Pat Harrison majority leader instead
Of Alben Barkley. Five per cent IN
the House would have passed the re-
organization bill l have not looked
up the returns, but I daresay that a
small flock Of Republican Congress
men who escaped the Roosevelt
landslide by the skin of their teeth
would have been swept away two
years ago-if the Sullivan formula
was applied in reverse
In brief. almost any political situ-
alton could be turned upside down
by such a shift If you could spot the
changes in those places where it would
have the greatest effect. Not tnfre-
quently the vote in 4 few precincts
varies the vote of . district; An upset
in one county may change the COM
plexion OF a State. etc.
Now let us take up the interpre-
tation OF the primary voting so far
as it goes First, there was Alabama,
which had to elect q successor to the
Hugo Black seat, and Lister Hill, who
according to the snti-sdministrati ton
prophets was 100 per cent New
Dealer, was nominated 2 to /.
In estimating the value of these de-
ductions it should be recalled that
the reactionary spokesmen. in and out
of print, announced that the Presi-
dent was undertaking purge to get
rid OF all Of those who had opposed
any Of his important measures in
Congress. We had the clear-cut issue
In Florida, where Senator Pepper,
who was supposed to have the Presi-
dents blessing, contested with Con-
gresham Mark Wilcox for the Sem
ate seat Wilcox made his whole
appeal on the basis of his anti-ad-
ministration record. Pepper, of course,
came through by more than two to
one, despite the fact that ex-Gov.
Sholtz. also proclaiming himself
New Dealer, got $4,000 votes which
normally must have gone to the Sem
ator if the Governor had kept out
Of the primary.
A week or so later the same thing
happened in North Carolina. where
Senator Reynolds was the candidate
OF the New Deal forces and Repre-
sentative Hancock appealed to the
other side. The New Deal majority
there was about $4,000.
What Oklahoma Means.
Congress adjourned, and we come
to Oklahoma, where Senator Elmer
Thomas and Gov. Marland, both ask
ing for New Deal votes, ran against
Representative Conner Smith, who
voted against the Farm Act and other
administration measures. Thomas got
100000 votes, Marland got 90, 900 and
Conner Smith got $4,000. The gover-
norship vote in that State was equally
significant. Leon Phillips and Will
liam S. Key and two other candidates
contested for the New Deal votes.
Ex-Gov. Alfalfa Bill'' Murray ran
on the anti-New Deal side and got
fewer votes than either of the leading
New Deal candidates.
There were a couple Of other pri-
q n Aaks kss.