Evening star., 1938-11-09

the reorganiza- #&$ss$s #8@$$sS
ton bill in the n.u,s ,,..
House or the DAVID Lawrence
Supreme Court packing bill in the
Senate has been narrow. AS a re-
suit of the election this week, the
majority has been considerably in
creased.
To find out the real majority in
the House of Representatives against
the administration on vital issues
involving property rights and human
liberties it is necessary to add the
new Republican total to the indie
pendent bloc of Democrats in both
Houses. This group includes about
100 Representatives and % Senators.
How is the independent bloc made
up? In order to ascertain just who
should be included in such tabu-
lation, the United States News, pub
lished here, looked up the record
of all the Democratic members OF
Congress in the last six sessions
since the New Deal began and found
that in the first two years there were
only four Senators and IA Repre-
sentatives of the Democratic party
who voted against the administra-
ton with any degree OF consistency,
but that in the next two years the
number had risen to 16 Senators and
IS Representatives while in the last
two years the number went up to
% Senators and 100 Representatives.
Would Be Total of 225.
Thus if the Republican member
ship by the final voting were shown
to be a minimum of 125, there could
be added 100 Democrats on certain
vital issues which would make a
total of 225. and that's seven more
votes than necessary to prevent the
passage of New Deal legislation.
Anything above 125 merely assures
even more definitely the existence
of a new majority.
During the first two years OF the
New Deal the number of votes cast
in either the Senate or the House
against administration measures
we're few because of the tendency
of the people to give the benefit of
the doubt to new proposals. But
gradually the opposition rose on
such issues as renewal of the N. R. A,
the A. A. A. and the reciprocal trade
agreements. The Utility holding
company bill, with its so-called
death sentence" the Guffey Coal
Act and the Wagner Labor Rela-
tions bill all furnished opportunities
for sharp differences of opinion in
the second two years.
Finally, in the last two years, the
Supreme Court issue in the Senate
and such measures as the wage and
hour law, the T. V. A. and the
departments and agencies developed
lines of cleavage so deep that the
Presidents campaign, called the
purge" which he waged in the
Democratic primaries in various
States, arose out of feeling that
opposition inside the party was
growing rather than diminishing
and had to be restrained by an ar-
peal to the party voters.
Republicans Were Cohesive.
The Republicans, on the other
hand, though possessed in the last
two years of only 80 votes, have
been fairly cohesive and the addi-
tions to their ranks will not only
encourage greater opposition to the
administration, but will produce a
-tO,, &c u
the Democrats In the House and
Senate who come up for reelection
in 1910. In other words, if the
politicians think a trend has been
established of opposition to Roose-
velt policieS, they will naturally
examine the reasons for it very
carefully and develop more in
dependent course themselves.
The administrator leaders, on
the other hand, will seek to over
come this nervousness by pointing
out that Mr.. Roosevelt was not on
the ballot in 1888, but may be in
1910, and that his personal popu-
larity has not waned.
Most important of all results flow
ing from the election. however, is
the effect on the immediate business
situation. Elections always cause
uncertainty and hesitation. When
they are out of the way, planning
for the future and adjustment to the
new political lineup takes place
very quickly. Business has shown
signs of an upturn for several weeks.
Whether this has been due to natu-
raj causes-a recovery from the re-
cession-or to an anticipation by
businessmen of the outcome of this
very election it Is difficult to say.
But there can be no doubt that
businessmen feel lot better today
than they did before the election,
and much more certain of an in
dependent Congress than they have
before. 1t is not the governorships
which matter to the business ap-
praisal of an election, but the trend
in the House of Representatives.
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