Evening star., 1938-07-24
By SIR ARTHUR WILLERT.

BY SIR ARTHUR WILLERT.
LONDON, July % (N.A.NAD-
This weeks events in Paris. together
with their background, permit the
formulation of long-term and short
term hopes regarding European af-
fairs and the British attitude toward
them
The long term hope concerns Prime
Minister Chamberlain appeasement
policy and the possibility that it may
become more effective than it has
been so far.
The short-term hope concerns
Czechoslovakia, over which war clouds
again have been lowering, thanks to
the evident intention of German ex-
tremists to make trouble by declaring
that the bill which Prague soon is
going to produce for the improvement
of the position of the German minor
ity is inadequate
Every European government now
knows that the British foreign secre-
tary. Lord Halifax, has assured
Frances Premier Daladier and For
eign Minister Bonnet that, If Ger
many attacked the Czechs and if
France went to their air. England
probably would join the war against
Germany. The hopes Of the German
extremists that Chamberlain had
weakened since the Czech crisis of
last spring were thus dashed. This
Is most important.
Germany Might Risk War.
Germany would not mind using
force against Czechoslovakia alone If
she refused to give her German
minority the concessions they demand
and to quit her alliance with Russia
IN favor of close relations with Ger
many. Germany might even risk war
with France alone, in the hopes of
keeping her at bay behind the fortifi-
cations which Hitler is rushing toward
completion on the western frontier.
But Germany is not likely to risk war
with Great Britain as we'll A block
ade and the combination of the Brit
1sh and French air forces would be
too much for her, as her military and
diplomatic preparations now stand.
Hence the effort both Germany and
italy have been making to separate
Britain and France, such as Musso-
hnl's attempt to rush Chamberlain
INTO bringing the Anglo Italian agree
ment into force prematurely, while he
picked quarrel with France and re-
fused to negotiate an agreement with
NH rloiy
French relations would have been
badly strained
The h-advertised visit to Lon
don this week OF Hitler's special ennis
sary. Capt. Fritz Wiedemann, was an
equivalent German effort. Wiedemann
stressed Germany's desire for friend
ship with Britain. But he said MOTH
ing to remove the suspicion that Ger
manys idea of friendship with the
western democracies is an arrange
n1ent which would end by making her
supreme in the rest of Europe.
1t Is hoped that WSademanns re-
port Of his London conversations will
nave convinced Hitler that the Paris
celeoratlons mean what they seem to
mean; namely. that there is NOT the
slightest good in trying to drive a
wedge between France and Britain.
That is why London now Is less de-
pressed by the immediate outlook.
May Check Hitler.
1t is not believed that Germany has
given up her ambition to dominate
Central and Southeastern Europe.
possibly as preliminary to an eventual
showdown with the Western democ-
racles, but it is hoped and believed
that she will, barring accidents, re-
frain from forcing the pace over the
grievances of Konrad Henlein and the
German minority in Czechoslovakia.
Regarding Chamberlain's policy,
there are various reasons for believ-
ing that it is growing sitter and
more realistic. Annoyance that Mus
solini should be conducting his Span
ish policy with no more consdera-
ton for would-be friend like Cham
berlain than he showed to a de-
clared enemy like Anthony Eden is
one of them. Another is the discov-
cry, over the Czechoslovakian crisis
last spring and again over the re-
cent controversy with Berlin about
the responsibility for the Austrian
debts, that firmness is apt to produce
dividends when dealing with dictators.
Still another is the growth of British
confidence as British arma-
ments grow.
And last but not least is the dawn
ing fear in the Conservative ranks
that Labor and Liberal spokesmen
are not altogether wrong when they
env1sage the dictatorial support of
Generalissimo Franco and sympathy
with Japan as due less to fear of
Bolshevism in Spain and China than
to an effort, under the leadership of
Berlin, to launch worldwide Of
fensive. partly diplomatic. partly
strategic and partly economic, against
democracy in general and the Brit
ish Empire in particular.
Nervousness regarding the economic
aspects of this offensive are becom-
ing noticeable in business circles.
Merchants. bankers and others inter-
ested in the Far East are pressing
chamberlain to take q more active
stand in China and in favor OF
Chang Kai-shek. In one memo
randum recently submitted to the
government they asked whether the
government did not realize that China,
by resisting Japan. was fighting the
battles of the Western democracies in
Europe. Other business men are press
ing for an extension to other coun-
sries of Southeastern Europe of the
trade credits recently granted to Tur-
key, in order to save British trade
from the tremendous drive Germany is
making for economic supremacy down
the Danube.
Aid to British Trade.
To this latter demand Chamber
ain responded by appointing COM
mittee to consider the possibility of
helping British trade in Eastern Eu-
rope To the Far Eastern demand
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