Evening star., 1938-11-20

Mr. Hull is determined to prevent the
injection of any superior feeling" or "in-
feriority complex" at that parley.
There is a strong possibility that all
difficulties between the North and South
will be ironed out ultimately. But to
achieve this it is essential that there
should be no active propaganda, no wire
pulling and no intriguing from the :otali-
tartan states.
The administration. however, is con-
vinced that the totalitarian states, Ger
many particularly, are striving aggres-
sive!y to nullify our efforts in South
America. 1t fears that within a short
time new revolutionary movements viii.
bloom in some of the Latin American
republics now being fostered
from Berlin, so our experts believe.
A certain file in Washington holds a
paper which under ordinary circum-
stances would be given little attention.
1t is Problem BX of the German general
staff, which envisions a theoretical con-
fllct between the United States and
Japan, with all our forces engaged in
the Pacific. The situation presupposes
that we will have to fight alone as
France and Great Britain will have de-
clared themselves strictly neutral. Under
the circumstances, the United States
would not be able to guard the South
Atlantic. This war-according to the
authors of the problem-would be long,
and although the chances of success
favor the United States, the effort would
create an opportunity for Germany and
other European powers to establish
themselves on a solid and permanent
basis in the South American continent"
Too Close for Comfort.
Every war and navy department has
such theoretical problems, which offer
lively mental gymnastics for students of
war colleges. But this desk war game"
OF the Germans comes too close to
reality for our comfort. 1t is not exag-
geratlng to state that one of the prin-
clpal reasons behind the administration
plan to build a strong mobile force in
the Atlantic is this little problem with
staff have been toying
Since the Munich peace treaty there
has been feeling in official quarters
that we are more isolated today than
ever before. That we can count on no
support in the event of difficulties. That
we must rely exclusively on ourselves.
Perhaps we have taken problem BX too
seriously. But our people have used it
to reinforce our traditional policy to
support established governments in
South America against coup detats from
military "juntas" or revolutionary hot
heads.
In the event of an insurrection in
Brazil, for instance, we would provide
the recognized government with arms
and ammunition. If this were insufi-
cient and the constituted government
asked us to help suppress the rebellion
by preventing the smuggling of arms
and men by European power-the his
tory of the Spanish revolution is a vivid
example that lit can happen here"-we
would. in accord with our policy, assign
number of ships to patrol the Bra
lillian coast to prevent an indirect breach
OF the Monroe Doctrine Such a situa-
tion has ceased to be a mere strategic
study
The paramount and fundamental
cause OF i'll feeling between Germany
and the United States is undoubtedly
the aggressive attitude of the Reich
in South America. German diplomats
say we must bear the burden of guilt
for this friction. They claim that we
have conducted intense anti-Nazi
propaganda and, that, while strongly
denying any interest in European af-
fairs, our Government and press have
done their best to destroy the benefits
of the Munich pact.
There is no doubt much truth in what
the German diplomats say. but they
overlook Hitlers power to tell us frankly
that he has no aims in South America,
other than healthy commercial COM
petition with the slogan: Let the best
man win He can say-as openly as
he told the Austrians that he would
annex that country, or the British
and French that he would take the
Sudetenland-that he has no intention
of interfering politically in South Amer
ica. Frankness has been the chief
characteristic of Italian and German
diplomacy. An unequivocal statement
that Germany has no political ambitions
in the Western Hemisphere would in all
probability end the dangerous growing.
tCopyright 1889