Evening star., 1938-01-16
Drop in Birth Rate Presents
New Economic Problem to i. S,
Surplus of Human Life, Like Too Much Land
Is Rapidly Becoming Thing of the Past
in American Scene

can Scene.
I that despite the revival of industry the
| number OF unemployed has not shown a
| comparative decline-easy enough to ac-
| count for when those 100000 new
| Americans who came into the world be-
tween 1920 and 1880 are taken into con-
sideration. They, and their slightly older
brothers and sisters, are edging into the
labor supply.
In Future DepressiOns.
Twenty years hence depression will not
have the same consequences. 1t will be
necessary to do little more than find jobs
for those actually thrown out Of work.
| The supply of new workers will little more
| than balance deaths and retirements be-
cause of age.
Another consideration-not mentioned
| by Mr.. Osborn, but possibly of very far
reaching social consequences-is that there
will be less cannon fodder" Slowly the
number of boys of military age-the age
| when boy, for some strange reason.
! seems to get enthusiastic over the prospect
| of serving as cannon fodder-will decline.
Men of 40 have little stomach for long,
hungry marches in the rain-if they are
| the ones who must make them.
| The reasons for the growing differential
| are somewhat complicated. The greater
span of the average life accounts for some
of it. The declining birth rate is quite
| another matter. One factor may be, al
| though nobody has proved it yet, de-
clining fertility Of the race for obscure
| biological reasons. Another, almost GER
tainly. is that children have lost their
economic value in greater part Of the
| United States. When the whole country
was primarily and rather primitively ag-
| ricultural. a child was considerably more
of an economic asset to a family than a
colt or calf. Its care, food and clothes
| represented an investment to be repaid in
labor and in old-age security. Now, for a
| large part of the population the child is
an economic liability whose chief value is
| sentimental.
Birthrade Sinking.
Mr.. Osborn's figures bear this out. The
birth rate is sinking everywhere in the
| United States, but least in those sections
| which still are primarily and somewhat
primitively agricultural-chief1y the rural
| South. Some groups" he says "are
| rapidly increasing and some are dying out.
These difterential rates Of growth set up
violent stresses in the body polite, the
causes of which have recently been rec
ognized, but for which the cure is not vet
available
THE largest differentals are those
which now exist between the rural farmer
and the urban dWeller. The rural popula-
ton OF the South is increasing at the rate
OF 80 per cent generation. The city
OF Portland. Greg, had rate of reproduce
tion in 1880 of only so per cent of that re-
quired for replacement in the next genera
ton, and other and larger cities are
| probably approaching the same low level
While the rural rate has recently been
falling more rapidly than that of the
cities, large rural-urban differences are
likely to continue for long time to come.
Among occupational or socio-economic
groups differences in rates of reproduction
apparently increased rapidly during the
latter half of the 10Th century and the
they vary from approximately rs per cent
OF the rate needed for replacement among
professional people to l25 per cent of the
| rate needed for replacement among un-
skilled laborers. There is some evidence
| that these differences may now be dimin-
ishlng, but it is likely to be long time be-
fore they cease to be an important social
force IN this country. There is as yet no
| adequate material on differences in repro
duction between different types of in
dividuals within the major groups Until
fairly comprehensive studies have been
| made, we cannot estimate what changes
are taking place in the genetic qualities
OF our people. But the cultural qualities of
| succeeding generations must be largely
a1ected by the fact that at present those
groups with the poorest cultural back
ground, to whom educational opportunities
are least available, are Increasing most
rapidly, while those with the highest Gull
tural background, who are also receiving
the most in education, are rapidly dying
out. At the present time differentials in
reproduction constitute a force strongly
opposed to cultural and educational ad.
vance.
| Story of Land Utilization.
The story of land utilization seems to be
repeating itself in different plane. A
couple OF generations ago there was all the
land anybody wanted to be had for the
asking. It could be wasted as lavishly as
one pleased. There was always more Just
beyond. The pioneer moved on and on
leaving wreckage behind him.
Then, almost without warning, came the
realization that there was no more free
land to be had. There were no virgin
forests to be burned, plowed and aban-
doned just over the hills. The land had
to be boarded, the good separated from
the worthless and encouraged to produce.
The worthless had to be thrown out of
uneconomic production
Now it is becoming apparent that there
Is no more surplus of human life. In
stead Of drawing upon inexhaustible re-
sources, America must make the best Of
what she has. This constitutes an en-
tirely new problem In economics and
sociology.