Evening star., 1938-05-29
Quick Czech Defeat Forecast
Unless Allies Spring to Aid
Forces of Germany, Poland and Hungary Far
Superior to Those Possessed by
Praha Government.
BY CONSTANTINE BROWN.

BY CONSTANTINE BROWN.
THERE Is red circle around June II
on the calendars in all foreign
ofnces. This Is the last election
day in Czechoslovakia. and If 1t
does not bring forth some tragic develop
ments Europe and the rest of the world
will be able to breathe easier, for q while
at least.
For the time being there Is no definite
change in the situation. Basically, the con-
flict Is exactly where it was at the BEGIN
ming
Reichsfuehrer Hitler, the protector Of
Germanism throughout the world, insists
that the Praha government give the Sude-
ten Germans complete autonomy. The
communal elections which began May %
have resulted in victory-not smashing
one as at first expected-for the Henlein
followers
These elections will continue for another
two weeks. The autonomy Of the Sudeten
Germans is the irreducible demand of their
leaders. They want to be free to decide
within the Czechoslovak republic or join
the Reich and become citizens of the Ger
man Empire. This Is the essence of the
present dispute. For the time being, de-
spite efforts Of the London government and
despite frequent negotiations between the
and the Praha government the problem, has
remained the same. Neither side has made
any concessions which might encourage
observers to say that the crisis can be
averted
Border Measures Taken.
In the meantime important military
measures have been taken along the bor-
ders Of Czechoslovakia by all the nations
Czechoslovakia Germany, Po-
land and Hungary. Germany contiguous
with Czechoslovakia in the north, south
and west; Poland, another potential enemy
Of the Central European republic, borders
the east side of Czechoslovakia, while in
the southeast tlvere is Hungary claiming
that the 100000 Magyars living in Benes'
republic ought to join the mother country.
The only friendly country bordering the
harassed republic is Rumania, whose maxi
mum assistance would be in maintaining
neutral attitude in an eventual conflict.
Frontier incidents" have occurred almost
daily on the Czech German borders. For
the time being these incidents are not sufh-
ciently important to justify hostile action
on the part Of the Germans. But Hitler is
keeping the pot boiling by sending severe
protests every time Czech airplane flies
over Germany or Czech patrols snoop
around few hundred yards outside the
border line.
The principal complaint Of the Fuefrer
Is, however. that the Praha government
has modified at least one class Of reserve
troops and Czech troops have been sent
into Bohemia during the election which
ought to be free Of any military pressure
"You cannot have free elections while
Czech bayonets are terrorizing the German
voters" remarked Foreign Secretary Joa-
chin Won Ribbentrop to the British Am
bassador, Neville Henderson, when the lat
ter made the usual foreign Office repre-
sentation urging peaceful solution OF the
German -Czechoslovak dispute.
The Praha government decided on par
tial mobilization because 1t claims to have
had enough information about concentra-
ton Of German troops in Bavaria and
saxony to threaten Czechoslovakia's inde-
pendence.
Can Resist Temporarily.
The military power Of Czechoslovakla Is
sufficient to offer temporary and efficient
resistance to any invasion. But how long
that resistance can last nobody can say for
certain. The Czech high command believes
it could resist the Reichswher for three
months; in Paris, it was said last year
that Frances Central European ally might
withstand the German onslaught for three
weeks, while the Berlin generals, when
asked about the Czech resistance, smilingly
answered, I'VE give them three days"
Only an actual outbreak Of war will show
which Of the three general stats were cor
rect in their surmise.
<Czechoslovakia has an army estimated at
1900, 900 men. This estimate Is based on
the usual 10 per cent of the total popula-
ton. According to military experts it is be-
lieved, however, that In case OF an indus
trial country like Czechoslovakia no more
than per cent of the total population
could be summoned to the colors. But these
figures represent only an army on paper.
There Is no doubt that the Praha gov
ernment cannot count on the loyalty of the
3,500,000 Sudeten Germans; neither could
the 100000 Hungarians be reckoned as
loyal. Hence, out Of total OF 100000
men Czechoslovakia could muster, some
400, 900 must be counted out. This reduces
the Czech forces to something like 100000
men.
In view Of possible difficulties with the
minorities the Czechoslovak general staff
has taken the necessary precaution Of not
including the unreliables in the main bodies
of the national defense. For instance. 90
per cent Of the officers are C5echs and
Slovaks and none Of the high-ranking Of
ficers are either German or Magyar.
Machine Crews 100 Per Cent Czech.
In what may be called the shock troops
there are only about 20 per cent minori-
tarians, while the mechanical forces have
crews which are 100 per cent Czech and
Slovak. The same proportion, about 81 per
cent, applies to aviation. The sudeten Ger
mans and the Hungarians are used as
second line troops or auxiliaries. From
the technical point of view the Czechoslovak