Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1938-11-06

will be a sharp
narrowing of the v
margin, as COM
pared with 1884 and 1896, between
the candidates of the two major
parties even where Democratic
candidates win. In other words,
the Republican party is on the way
back.
Even though political prophecy
Is dangerous business, there is little
doubt about these conclusions. All
signs on the political horizon point
to them, and, if they materialize,
they will color events in this coun-
try for many years to come.
How about being specific-just
how many Republicans do you ex-
pect to elect. it might be asked?
1t is fair question, and yet it is
one which cannot be answered with
any degree of accuracy. Party
managers may boast or guess, either
publicly or privately about gains,
or, as in the case of our Demo-
cratic friends. concede losses. But
too many factors and personalities
enter into this years picture to
permit any accurate numerical
appraisal.
Gains in House Seats.
We know that several polls have
indicated Republican gain in the
House of from so to 60 seats-which
would, in view of the Democratic
flood tide of recent years, be an
unusually good Republican show
ing. An increase of four or five
Republicans in the Senate likewise
has been indicated. Local polls
show Republican gubernatorial
candidates in half dozen or
more of the larger States stand
excellent chances of being elected.
The surprise in Tuesdays election
may very we'll come in the number
of Republican Governors elected.
Geographically, the heart of the
Republican gains will come from
New England, down through Penn
sylvania and out through the Middle
Western States of Ohio, Indiana,
Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota
and Kansas. Long rock-ribbed Re-
publican States, they now are lead
ing the country back to its tradi-
tlonal moorlngs of government with
humanitarian leanings, yet conduct
ed constitutionally and soundly.
The factors which have jolted the
people of these StateS-and many
other States, too-from their sup
port of Democratic candidates are
found in three great desires of the
American people which in recent
months have grown in intensity.
These are a desire for economic
recovery. for restoration of morality
20 public life and for re-establsh-
ment of governmental action within
the framework of the American
Constitution. Briefly. these are the
issues around which this years
elections will turn.
Prosperity and Criticism.
A shreWd political analyst has OBJ
served that prosperity absorbs all
criticism No truer word ever was
uttered in the field of political
aXioms. When times are good, the
party out of power stands little
chance of success, irrespective of
the merits of its program or the
misdeeds of the administration.
Thus, from 1929 to 1882, the Re-
publican party was caught in the
NAV of the severest depression the
world has known - depression
which in large part resulted from
the Embellishments created by the
World War Primarily for that rea-
son, Republicans in 1880 began to
lose strength and in 1882 were voted
out of power nationally and in many
states, even though the bottom of
the depression was touched before
the election of that year.
The Democrats came into power
In 1888 on rising tide of recovery.
This continued during the elections
OF 1884 and 1886, with the result
that Democratic majorities steadily
increased, even though those with
knowledge OF such matters were con-
Vlnced that these better times rested
on an unSound and treacherous
foundation--that certain New Deal
policies were sure to bring disaster.
The large masses of people, how
ever, gave little consideration to
such contentious as long as condi-
tons were improving and as long
as the President could ask, with
confidence of an affirmative answer:
Are YOU not better off now than
you were last year?"
Rewakening Seen.
But when, last year, the New
Deal recovery blew up-when the
stocks OF corporations unable to
earn profits crashed, when unem-
ployment figures rapidly shot up
ward and farm prices downward,
the average man and woman COM
menced to look at the Roosevelt
administration with critical eve.
For the first time it became clear
that, under the policies being pur-
sued by the New Deal, prosperity
can be maintained only by huge
and constant Government spend
ing programs.
AA0D AAA A-oA wv, wv, AldtC VIII
tributed to molding the American
mind. AS the full horror of dicta-
torship has been barred abroad,
Americans suddenly have become
jealous of the integrity of their
Constitution and Bill of Rights.
This first became apparent when
public hostility prevented Mr..
Roosevelt from packing the Su-
preme Court and it again was evil
dent in the defeat of the reorgan-
ization bill.
Cutting the corners of the Con-
stitution-to put it mildly-is now
generally believed to involve too
great a risk in the field of liberty
and freedom.
The foregoing is an effort in
brief fashion to reflect what Re-
publicans expect to happen Tues
DAY and to cite the underlying
reasons. Disillusionment and hos
Unity to the New Deal, however,