Evening star., 1938-08-02
New Far East War.

4\S" xlo0t w al
Any hope the japanese high COM
mapd may have had of shifting a con-
siderable body of troops from Man
chukuo and Korea to Central China to
assist in the drive against Hankow and
in policing the already conquered areas,
which are infested with Chinese guer-
rilla troops, must receive a shattering
blow from the unexpected resistance
Russia is showing to Japanese attempts
to hold the disputed hill regions along
the Siberian Manchukuoan Korean
border.
Begun July II, with Russian effort to
occupy the Changkufeng area, the in
cident resulted in a spirited battle Sun
day between japanese and Russian
infantry and artillery, and in Russian
air raid over the disputed border region
yesterday, in which five planes were shot
down by Japanese e-Manchukuoan troops.
Although the oft-repeated intention
Of the japanese army is to avoid war
with Russia by the adoption of diplo-
matte means of settlement, it certainly
will not be possible for Japan to divert
any part of its armed forces in Man
chukuo-estimated variously at 250,000
to 100000 men-to Central China. Rath-
er will it be necessary, If Russia proves
even more belligerent, to divert some
of the North China troops to Manchu-
kuo, for Japan's real fear in Eastern
Asia is not China, but Russia. If Japan
were to pull out Of China tomorrow, not
even bothering to negotiate peace with
the Chang Kai-shek government, 1t is
highly doubtful whether the Chinese
would do more than reoccupy the terri
tory they had lost, expelling all Japanese
interests.
But Russia is a different proposition
The Soviet Union, with its heavy con-
centration of infantry, tanks. airplanes
and submarines in and around the Mari
time Province, of which Vladivostok is
the metropolis, is live potential threat
to the security of the Japanese people.
This explains why Japan on more than
one occasion has proved tractable in the
face of Russian flrmness on frontier in
cidents, and explains why even now the
Japanese are intent upon leaving the
border incidents to peaceful settlement
II such is possible.
Russia has come to Cmna's assistance
at the eleventh hour with an effective
demonstration of force which is likely
to temper the japanese campaign in
Central China. But in so doing she
raises the specter Of repercussions on
the European balance of power. Rus
sia, 1t may be reasoned, is faced if she
engages in full-fedged war with Japan,
with the possibility of German and
Italian attack on the west, these two
latter nations acting as allies of Japan
in the anti-Communist pact Germany
must attack Russia, if at all, through
Poland or Czechoslovakia, the latter Of
which has mutual assistance treaties
with Russia and France. Thus, Ger
manhattan attack upon Russia would
create the probability of resistance by
Czechoslovakia, military action by
France in fulfllment of her treaties with
Russia and Czechoslovakia, and conse-
nuent involvement of England.
Hemmed in as they are, however, by
England, France, Czechoslovakia and
the Little Entente-not counting Poland
because of its recent adherence to the
German-Italian bloc-there is more
than considerable chance that Ger
many and Italy would refrain from any
direct attack upon Russia, relying upon
economic and financial assistance for
Japan to take the place of armed help
Any way one wants to look at the
Russo-Japanese scrap over the Chang
kufeng area, it has already vitality af-
fected the balance between Japan and
China, and creates the threat of new
trouble for Russia and the rest of Eu-
rope if warfare becomes general in
Eastern Asia.