The Washington times., 1938-08-08
10 FACTORS PUT
'TYD|NGS, LEWIS.
NECK and NECK.
Advantage to Neither
On Kentucky Basis
By THEODORE HUNTLEY

luton and comes as near as any
to eliminating the element Of arbi-
trary Observation-Disclosures, guess
work.
10 VISIBLE FACTORS
It is not claimed for the arith-
metical approach that it is scien-
tific. But then neither is any
other method. Politcis is not
science. 1t is problem in human
equations and group combina-
tions.
All the method employed here
does is to take 10 visible factors
in the Kentucky primary contest
between Senator Barkley and Gov
ernor Chandler and then add
them up. 1t starts with the ques-
tion
What was the winning
combination in Kentucky?"
No attempt is made to weigh
the factors involved. The ele-
ment Of Roosevelt and New Deal
support is given no more weight
than the element of labor or bust
ness or veterans support. To give
one factor more weight than
another destroys whatever value
the system has in eliminating |
partisanship and gueSswork.
IT'S AN OFFSET
Hewing to the line, then, what
Is the answer as to Maryland?
It will probably surprise both
sides in the Tydings-Lewis fight.
It's an offset! Neither Senator
Tydings nor Representative Lewis
has a winning combination on the
basis of the Kentucky lineup.
Their advantages and disadvan-
tages are about equally divided.
Factors which figure in this
conclusion are:
/. Presidential support.
2. The advantage Of position
NS the sitting Senator.
3. The age factor.
4. Labor support.
5. Business support.
6. Veterans support.
7. City organization support.
8. State organization support.
9. Federal jobholders' and
WPA support.
10. Personal acquain t a nee
over the State.
NO. 3 EXPLAINED
Only NO. 3 among these factors
calls for an explanation. In intro
ducing the question of age as be.
tween the two candidates it is not
claimed that youth or age is an
advantage. You simply look at
the Kentucky candidates and see
that the winner is the older. His
age is part Of the winning comb
nation.
Taking the 10 factors and ap-
plying them to Maryland, it will
be seen tcat Tydings wins on num-
bers 2, S. 6, and 10, and Lewis
on numbers 1, 3, 4, 7 Chis apparent
organization advantage in Balt1-
more, equivalent to Barkley's in
Louisville), and 9.
Five to five! A horse race! AS
they make the turn into the
straightaway Tydings and Lewis
run neck and neck, if the Ken
lucky factors mean anything as
applied to Maryland.
ROOM FOR ARGUMENT
There is perhaps room for argu-
H1ent as to Factors 7, 8 and 8,
AS to No. Z the best evidence
indicates that Mayor jackson
and the Baltimore organization
are veering in the direction of
Lewis in a trade for New Deal
support for JackSon's guber-
material aspirations.
AS Curran 9lready is friendly
to Lewis, his advantage at the
moment is obvious. Jackson can
shift to Tydi:1gS, of course
may. But right now it looks like
Lewis in Baltimore, just as
Barkley carried Louisville with city
organization support there.
There is no such thing as State
organization support in Maryland
in the sense that Governor
Chandler hal it in Kentucky
support based on State jobs. In
Maryland, the Republicans have
most of the jobs. But Tydings
has the bulk Of the party organiza-
ton with hrn-the Democratic
national, State and county COM
mitteemen ard county jobholderS
which certainly gives him a |
comparable advantage.
AS TO JOBHOLDERS
AS to the Federal jobholders,
It can only be assumed that
though hundreds of them are
Tydings appointees, and owe their
personal Loyalty to him, many Of
them will be forced into line for
Lewis when Washington turns on
the heat. And the WPA. sup
posedly for Roosevelt first, will be
for Lewis if the President and
Harry Hopkins can swing it.
OF course If you don't like this |.
method of applying the Kentucky
result to MARYLAND, you can work
out your own If you are strong
partisan of Lewis or Tydings you |
can give your favorite the
advantage by weighing the
factors to sui: yourself. The fore
going system happens to be i'm