Evening star., 1938-07-24

prosperity"
Walter Lichtenstein, vice president,
First National Bank, Chicago:
My guess is that the Federal Re-
serve Board index Of production which
in recent months hovered around rs
will be somewhere between IS and
80 by the end of the year and is likely
to 60 above 80 in the early months OF
1899 regardless of ones views about
the ultimate effects of the Govern
ment's economic policies"
Recovery This Fall.
Ragnar D. Naess, Wall Street eco
nomist said there has been substan-
tial reduction Of burdensome inven-
tories in retail and wholesale chan
nels." He thought the buying move
ment already started is likely to bring
consumer goods recovery this fall, but
regarded marked autumn recovery in
capital goods, except for residential
building and steel. as unlikely.
Theodore N. Beckman, professor Of
economics, Ohio State University:
General business during the last
quarter OF this year will probably be
within 10 points of year ago. Re-
tail trade may approximate that OF a
year ago. Inventories should be
down almost to the danger point ex-
cept in few durable consumer goods"
Lawrence Dennis, economist for
E. A. Pierce Il Co., New York:
Money taken out of the market and
held in idle balances must be put
back. Idle cash cannot hope for
higher interest rates in any near fu-
ture and has nowhere to 60 except
back into American Investments.
Higher prices and increas sed pro-
duction and pay rolls seem indicated.
Recovery for at least a year.
and. more likely, much longer, seems
now assured"
Betterment Seen.
Melvin T. Copeland. professor of
economics. Harvard University:
Despite grave uncertainties lwide-
spread unemployment, business losses,
taxes. labor unrest, unsettled foreign
trade) a gradual increase in business
activity seems to be in prospect for
the remainder of 1888 .'- Especially
significant is growing determination
by more and more business executives
to go ahead despite political and other
obstacles placed in their paths
A. G. Whitaker professor of eco
nomics, Stanford University:
Il think there will be a decided i'm
provement in business during the re-
mainder Of this year and believe fur
ther that the country is headed for
good times IN the years to follow, good
times which will persist after a great
reduction not too far away Of Federal
expenditures for works and relief"
w. C. Bober, economist of Johns
Manville Corp. New York:
Home construction sharply re-
versed the 1887 downward trend at the
beginning of this year and is in
good position to advance .s- Psy-
chology Is a most important factor.
The home prospect requires confidence
in the stability of his Job and income,
which requires prolonged good busi-
ness"
fSher- Sfes Gpfurn.
Irving Fisher. professor OF eco
nomics. Yale University:
Recovery has now begun and NAV
be expected to continue, whether or
not the bull market in stocks continues
at the feverish pace it has recently
taken on. In fact, recovery NAV
60 too far and become a boom. On
the other hand. there are counter
vailing circumstances which will make
recovery uphill work.
Robert W. Dunn. executive secre-
tary. Labor Research Association, New
York:
Business recovery this fall will
probably push the industrial produc-
ton index up IS per cent or 20 per
cent above the present level. There
will be no financial collapse as in
1878. However, should wage
cutting spread. consumption would be
curtailed and recovery retarded The
strong stand of Roosevelt against the
wage-slashine proposals of Wall Street
and the powerful resistance of c, I. O.
and A. F. Of L. has prevented drastic
downswing of purchasing power that
occurred in the previous crisis"
Prospects Fair"
S. NJ Derrick. professor of eco
nomics of the University of South
Carolina:
Prospects of business recovery in
this area for the remainder of 1898
are fair, with agricultural production
and prices about equal to 1887. Farm
purchasing power will remain rela-
lively low. Industrial production and
employment will be greater than for
the first six months Of 1888"
Charles w. williams, professor Of
economics, University Of Louisville:
1.-TWO fundamental factors are
bringing about the change Of senti-
ment vital to recovery-1 resump-
ton of pump printing on grandiose
scale, providing more purchasing
power, reviving old imitation talk
which is innocuous; (2) natural
processes-time and ordinary con-
sumption need have eaten into top
heavy inventories OF last year now
requiring replenishment.'
Neil Carothers, professor Of eco
nomics, Lehigh University:
THE basic factor in the improve
ment is the irresistible impulse to re-
covery after depression. despite
many unnatural conditions still re-
manning, the recovery forces are at
work again. stimulated in part by
wholly psychological influences, such
as anticipation of higher prices, the
spending program and the adjourn
ment Of Congress. Adverse factors