Evening star., 1938-10-15
TRADE RECOVERY
HAILED BY AYRES
Economist Sees Definite
Progress, Although in
Early Stages.
By EDWARD c. STONE.


ing to his monthly survey made public
this noon. After announcing that the
third quarter was a period of strong
business recovery" he states that this
progress is continuing into the final
quarter of 1888.
Industrial production as measured
bv the Federal Reserve index increased
by IA points from the level OF II in
June to that of 81 in September That
advance of IA points in three months,
Col Ayres says is so exceptionally
rapid that it has been definitely sur
passed in only one three-month period
since the index was initiated in 1919.
This exceptional strength OF the cur
rent advance is especially noteworthy,
the economist observes, IN view OF
the fact that it has so far received very
little support from the automotlVe IN
dustry, and not a great deal from con-
struction, despite the fine showing that
new building is currently making.
Continuation of improvement is almost
assured in October and November, for
In those months the output Of new au-
tomobiles will be greatly increased to
replenish the depleted stocks OF the
dealers.
Much Depends on New Issues.
throughout the world there is vast
feeling of relief that war has been
everted, and that should be promptly
reflected in improvements of lnterna-
tional trade, and in greater flow OF
new capital into expanding enterprise
here.
It seems probable that the degree
and duration of business improvement
in this recovery period in this country
will depend primarily on the volume
of the flow of new capital into busl-
ness through new issues Of bonds and
stocks. and in some degree on the eX-
pansion of bank loans to business un-
dertakings
So far this year there has been
good increase IN the volume of new
capital issues for expanding enter
prise, and a considerable amount OF
refinancing of old issues. There has
not been as yet any net increase IN
bank loans to business.
National income has turned upward,
and has made an advance OF little
less than 3 per cent since last May,
Col. Ayres concludes.
Banks Report On Profits.
The Federal Reserve October Bulle-
tin states that in the first six months
of 1898 member banks showed small
increase in net profits, compared with
the preceding six months, notWlth-
standing material decrease in current
earnings. The report adds that net
profits were considerably smaller than
in the first half of 1887 or 1885.
Current total earnings amounted to
1851 100000 and current total expenses
to s44s 900 Oo0 leaving net of sl83,-
100000, which is Is per cent under
the second half of 1887, attributable
In large measure to a decrease in loans
end investments, the Reserve report
said.
All items of earnings decreased ex-
eept service charges on deposit ac-
counts, which increased slightly. Cur
rent expenses showed a small decline.
Profits derived from the sale of securl-
ties amounted to s44.000,0 900 more than
in the last half of 1887 and sl2,000,000
larger than in the first half Of 1887.
Both losses and recoveries on loans
were smaller in the first half of this
year than in any half-year period in
1886 or 1887, the report disclosed.
Insurance Agency Celebrates
The Washington Agency OF the Con-
necticut Mutual Life Insurance Com
pany commemorated its 10th ami
versary under the leadership of John L.
McElfresh as general agent with an
educational meeting held yesterday at
the Hay-Adams House. followed in the
evening by dinner for the agency and
their families.
Vincent B. Coffin, second vice preSl-
dent and superintendent of agencies,
and Frederick o. Lyter, assistant su-
perintendent Of agencies, were guest
speakers during the evening.
Warren K. Magruder general agent
in Baltimore, and D. Conrad Little,
general agent for the company at
Richmond, addressed the day session.
Electric Output Improves.
Electric output of the four groups
OF subsidiaries of the North American
Co. in the third quarter of this year
was So per cent below the correspond
ing 1888 period. This is the smallest
percentage decrease from last year OF
any quarter this year, according to j.
F. Fogarty, president.
In each month of the third quarter,
Mr.. Fogarty added, the percentage de-
crease was smaller than in any month
OF 1888 except February, with the most
favorable comparison of monthly out
put occurring in September.
For the nine months to September
80 North American system output was
behind 1887 by 1853 per cent, in the
first quarter of this year 8.l3 per cent
and in the second quarter 9.48 per
cent.
Financial District Gossip.
George Calvert Bowie of Washing
ton, who was elected one of the direc-
tors of the Mortgage Bankers Associa-
tion at the Chicago convention, is
secretary of the H. L. Rust Co. He
has been prominent in the real estate
field here for many years.
The American Banker thinks the
time may come when all the banks
will go on the five-day week during
July and August. Some New Jersey
banks tried the experiment last sum-
mer and reported success. The maga-
zine states that Saturday is not an
important banking day and adds that
some New York banks already let off
some of their employees on Saturdays
In hot weather.
Washington Gas Light preferred
stock was again the most active issue
on the Washington Exchange during
the past week. Selling up to 1904 I,
it was within quarter of point of the
high for the year.
Both bond dealers and brokers report
q sharp revival in investments since the
recent sharp rise got under way in the
New York Stock Market. 1t has been
a long time since so many different
business indicators were so favorable,