Evening star., 1938-08-30
PEACE HOPE HIGH
DESPITE RUMORS
Diplomats Here Believe
War Can Be Avoided by
European Powers.
By CONSTANTINE BROWN,

BY CONSTANTINE BROWN.
While all the European powers ar,
mobilizing, information in the last @
hours in diplomatic quarters in Wash
1ngton indicate that there still is hop,
OF avoiding war.
This hope is based on the following
considerations:
!. Britain will 60 to war only il
actually pushed into it. The present
military preparations are merely in.
tended to show Hitler that she can
fight If necessary and that British
public opinion is no longer unyield-
ingly pacifistic.
2. While Britain is putting up big
show for Germany's sake, her diplo-
mats, including Lord Runciman, are
trying to induce the Czech government
to make the utmost concessions to the
Sudeten Germans, the Magyars and
other minorities
3. The French government sees eye
to eye with the British and is leaving
no stone unturned to prevent a clash
between the Germans and the Czechs
4. The British government, while
officially ignoring the Far Eastern
problem is seriously concerned over
the possibilities Of a Japanese aggres-
sion against Britains possessions in
the Far East.
Difficulties In Far East.
The situation in that section of the
world Is as follows: The Japanese have
serious difficulties in China because
communications in the Hankow region.
No less than 350,O00 japanese soldiers
are required to protect these lines
against the Chinese guerillas. In the
event of an European conflagration
Japan might want to cooperate with
her European allies, Germany and
Italy. In such an eventuality the
japanese general staff could withdraw
to the Shanghai-Nanking line, occupy
Canton and use her feet to harrass
Great Britain.
The British have no forces in the
Pacific to oppose a japanese aggres-
sion against Hong Kong, Singapore
and possibly other possessions in the
Indian Ocean. The British feet. in
the eventuality Of war, must be kept
in the European and West African
waters to maintain continuous flow
of supplies from her colonies to Eng
land.
The Russian menace which pro-
duced some CONSERVATION in Toxic
a few weeks ago will be greatly dimin-
ished in the event the U. S. S. r. is
engaged in a war in the West. Con-
sequently, Japan can play an i'm
portant role in Brtains war plans.
Hitler and Mussolini are not anxious
to cause a world war Like Mussolini
In 1884 and 1885, Hitler cannot re-
verse his present stand. but would be
willing to accept solution of the
Sudetan German problem which will
satisfy Germany's national pride and
give the Sudeten Germans compre-
hensive degree of independence.
Scare May Blow Over.
All these facts are taken into con-
sideration by those who play a dan
gerous game on the diplomatic chess
board, they conclude that this most
serious war scare might possibly blow
over like the others which have threat
ened the world peace in the last 18
years.
OF course, it Is admitted that the
massing of forces on the German,
French and Czechoslovak border, to
say nothing of the massing of impor-
tant Russian forces on the Polish and
Rumanian border are likely to precipi-
tate a conf1agratiOn almost overnight
The French have not as yet issued
a decree for general mobilization.
But there are enough reserve classes
under the colors today to meet any
preliminary emergency. The avia-
ton is completely modified and Off
GERS leave has been suspended.
The French fleet is ready to put
to sea in few hours. The bulk of
the battle fleet, five battleships and
number of heavy cruisers. is con-
centrated at Brest, while the light
units including the submarine force
are concentrated at Toulon.
British Fleet Concentration.
The British fleet has not yet reached
Its rendezvous in Scotland. Orders
have been issued for such con-
centration for September 6. The
units are, however, in the home waters
and those which are in the Mediter-
ranean and are designed to go north
can reach their destination in a short
time.
The German fleet was paraded at
Kiel last week before Admiral Horthy,
Hungarys regent and Germany's
latest ally.
Observers noticed that some of Ger
nany's newest cruisers were not at the
review. It is assumed, although no
definite reports are obtainable, that
the missing units are On the way to
the Mediterranean to strengthen the
italian forces.
Italy had its war games a few weeks
ago. AZ in Germany. the Italian Army
Is on war footing all the time and
mobilization would not take long The
covering troops in the Alps are always
ready for any emergency
The Italian Navy is concentrated in
the Tyrrhenian Sea. while the sub
marines are concentrated in Sardinia,
Mallorca and Iviza. A small subma-
rine force was reported three weeks
ago at Ceuta.
Important German and Italian air
bases have been constructed in the last
few months in Northern Spain. These
can send bombers to Plymouth in three
hours and to Brest in less than two
hours.