Evening star., 1938-06-01


Then came the Florida primaries
and the revival of the wage and hour
bill, as well as hints of revival of
the bill to reorganize Government de-
partments and thus increase Mr..
RooSevelt's powers. AS Congress
seemed to be capitulating to the Presi-
dent, the hopes of business men for a
possible improvement in business this
summer or this autumn began coinci-
dentally to drop also.
Today there are few business men
who can see daylight ahead. The talk
in New York and other business CEN
tiers is for the most part pessimistic
More and more business men are think
ing in terms of 1889 as a possible pc
riod of change for the better rather
than 1888. They are looking forward
to the November congressional elec-
tions to furnish the real key to the
future of private enterprise in Amer
lea.
Should Dominate Party.
In this connection it is most unfor-
tunate that the members of Congress
as well as the business world inter-
preted the Florida primaries as set
back. For If Mr.. Roosevelt were not
powerful enough to dominate the Sc
lections of candidates within the DEM
ocratic party, then it would indeed be
occasion for great surprise. The Flor
Ida result, stimulated by Townsend
clubs and by New Deal spending, is
what might be expected within the
Democratic party. The important
thing to watch is not the primaries,
but the final contests in November
Attention might well be fixed not on
the solid South, but on the North,
where the full effect of 10000, 900 or
more unemployed and a business sit
uation gradually growing worse and
worse Is likely to be reflected in the
mood of the voters.
Many observers forget that Frank
lin Roosevelt, although Governor of
New York, was not widely known in
1882, relatively speaking, either as
personality or as a creator of ma
tional policies. Indeed, the platform
OF 1882 on which he ran was very
conservative, so much so that many
Republicans would accept it today
as a Republican platform with hardly
the change of more than a sentence
or two. Yet in 1892 Mr.. Roosevelt
won by 100000 votes, the result
being due largely to dissatisfaction
with Mr.. Hoover's administration, or
at least to the discomfort aroused by
the widespread unemployment.
May Cut Majority.
II, therefore, the American people
vote against the party in power when
there is much unemployment, it may
we'll be asked whether the New Deal
Is not in for serious time in the au-
tumn elections. With New Deal
spending at its height the admins
tration may succeed in cutting down
the opposition majority. Some Re
publicans are talking hopefully of
gain of 30 seats in the House of Rep
resentatives, while some of the New
Dealers, eager to protect themselves
against the bad news, are saying al
ready the Republicans should capture
120 seats. But the probabilities are
that "a gain of Is Republicans would
be notable victory for the anti
New Deal voters, because in that
same drift of tide it will be found
that perhaps 100 or more Dem Jcrats
who voted against the reorganization
bill and other New Deal measures
will have been returned to Office.
On the day after election, for in
stance, the newspaper tabulations will
put a man like Senator Clark of
Missouri in the Democratic column,
and he will be counted among the
list of Democrats reelected, but his
victory in Missouri will be due in no
small part to the large number of
Republicans who approve his inde-
pendent attitude toward the New Deal.
If many Democrats of the Bennett
Clark school are reelected, and these
are added to the Republican gains,
then 1t will be possible to count the
conservative majority in the House
as greatly in excess of 25. Indeed,
the effect Of victory by Is Repub-
licans would not be lost on some of
the Democrats who are at present
friendly to the New Deal, but who
would then feel that the 1910 cleo
ton might require a record Of voting,
begun in the January, 1889, session,
which leans less toward the radical
and more toward the conservative
side.
No Clear Test.
So far as the business world is con-
cerned, it has seen as yet no clear
test of pro and anti-New Deal senti-
ment between the two major parties,
though there are signs that inside
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