Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1938-08-07
Vladivostok and Baikhal Goal
OF Japan if She Fights Soviet
Russia Would Use Retreat Strategy 1t l
Believed, to Alternate Foes
Communication Lines.


political agents and patterned upon that
Of Moscow. Soviet advisers are found In
virtually all its administrative DEPART
ments. And its army, trained and sup
piled by Moscow, Is a weaker counterpart
OF the Red Army. Very few sections OF
the world have been more isolated to for
eigners-save Russians-than Outer Nom
golia; so there is little factual knowledge
of its numerical military strength. But
what there is has been trained by the Rus
slams in modern fighting technique and
probably supplied with Soviet arms and
ammunition. 1t would offer firm, though
probably not decisive resistance to an in
vader and its loyalty to Moscow in war with
Japan may be regarded as certain.
Assume, then. that after several weeks
or possibly months. of fighting their way
through Mongolia, the main body OF Japa-
nese forces strikes the defending Russian
legions along the Siberian Monaghan bor-
der or possibly las the Russians and Mon
golians are alies) hundred miles or SO
south of it.
DEPRESSING, for a moment, examine the
forces that likely will meet there. The
Russians have. without reinforcements
from west of the Urals. say 100000 men
for the defense of the Far East. (The fig
ure, while not exact, is considered approx
mately correctly OF these. possibly 100000
may be employed in the defense of Vladiv-
ostok and $4,000 more stationed at other
strategic points along the border. Assume.
hi
the major japanese advance by force of
approximately 100000 men.
1t is difficult to estimate the number of
japanese forces which might be employed
in the main drive to the northwest because
there are many variables At the Begin
ming of Japan's campaign in China the
KWantung army stationed in Manchukuo)
numbered approximately 100000 men.
Since then it has been increased-in an
ticipation of trouble with Russia-to around
100000 men. Naturally. at the outbreak
of war many new divisions would be sent
by sea from Japan. But the Nipponese
must divert large force toward Vladiv-
ostok and assign others to defensive posi-
tons. Assume roughly then, that 100000
may NC sPdleu 1OI tHc push COWaTQ Lake
Baikal.
Russians Would Retreat.
Russian strategy probably would be to
retreat slowly northward. keeping the Japa-
nese on the offensive in the face of steady
fire and forcing them to lengthen their
already long lines of communication to
their bases of supply in Manchukuo. The
decisive battle of the war probably would
be fought somewhere near the foothills of
the mountains southeast of Lake Baikal
1t would be foolish to predict who would
be victorious. Too many complex factors
are involved. But after one side or the
other had been decisively defeated one
may hazard few guesses as to the future
II the Japanese gained absolute control
of the Lake Baikal area, and hence of the
Trans-Siberian, they probably could DOM
mate the whole of Siberia-not occupy it,
but rule it through command of its strate-
gle centers and possess the long coveted
oil of Sahkalin. the Siberian fisheries and
the Lena gold fields.
But II Russia were victorious and the
japanese were forced to retreat southwark.
the battle might we'll be the beginning of
long fight by Russia not only to hold its
own territory, but also to drive the Japa-
nese off the Asiatic mainland and again
possess the whole of Manchuria, as it did
briefly in the days of the Tsar
Imperial expansion is anathema to the
doctrinaire Bolshevik. Yet ideals are
f1imSy things in time of war And whether
Stain or the Tsar occupies the Kremlin,
the natural detectives of Russian foreign
policy remain unchanged. For centuries
Moscow has coveted a warm-Water port on
the Pacific and it is doubtful that the
pretty phrases of Marx and Lenin could
halt the Red soldiers once they started fol-
lowing retreating japanese army in
the direction of Port Arthur. With the
Trans-Siberian still intact, ample REIN
forcements could be sent from west of the
Urals to supply fresh Soviet troops for the
southwark march.
The writer, of necessity, has dealt largely
in the realm of theory-with what might
happen rather than what would of GER
tainty. happen. He has left out of account
entirely the possibility of Russian involve
ment in European war-a likely possi-
bility-at the same time the Red Army
was fighting in the Far East. Nor has he
considered the tremendous burden the
simultaneous war in China would be to the
japanese government or the probability of
Japan's being faced with a Communist
uprising at home. There are many i'm
ponderables.
fair certainty: A Russo-Japanese war
now likely would be decisive. 1t would set
tie. once for all, the important question of
mastery in Eastern Asia.
Canadians Increasing Use