Evening star., 1938-11-29
Reich|s Defeat Believed Sure
HWdr Had Come Over Czechs
AngIo-French Power Thought Certain
To Have Brought UItimote Victory

zone OF the most controversial
topics today Is the question OF
phether Britain could haze re-
sisted German and italian ag-
gression at the time OF the Czech
crisis. The London correspond
ent of the Daily Ne,Ds has made a
searching analysis OF this issue
In a series OF articles OF Which
this Is the second).
BY WILLIAM H. STONEMAN,
Chicago Daily News Foreign Correspondent
LONDON.-"The War That Never
Happened" in September, 1888,
would not have been a walkaWay
or q bloodless victory for the allies.
But It would have been decided In
their favor before the first bomber
took of or before the first shot was
fired.
The only people who seem to
doubt this are certain cabinet min
listers in London and Paris and
few extremely cautious military Of
ficials. Most Of the experts, and
certainly most Germans, believe
that it would be a 100-to-1 chance, a
hopeless affair for Germany. with
the only questions its duration and
the severity of peace terms dictated
to Germany.
1t Is admitted that France and
Britain would have taken a terrific
beating from the air during the
early period Of the war, before their
own air forces and anti-aircraft de-
fenses were in order and while Ger
many was still fresh and full of
vigor. But they would have won in
the long run because Of their supe-
rior war potential"-in other words,
because of their great superiority
in material and human reserves
and their capacity to produce. Only
some gigantic and unexpected ca
tastrophe could have beaten them.
Germans May Have Revolted.
1t is also regarded as a distinct
possibility that the German people,
their nerves worn by five years of
incessant war scares, might have
speeded an allied victory by throw
ing off the leadership which had
driven them into an impossible ad-
venture. Many reasonable experts
believe that this would have hap
pened within a period of few
months or just as soon as the allies
were able to deliver their first big
punch.
Some things about this war which
was never fought now seem to be
certain. Others are open to specu-
lation. But they all point to a Ger
man defeat.
First-Germany enjoyed definite
superiority in the air and was pre-
pared to use it to the limit. It is
taken for granted that London and
Paris would have been bombed re-
peatedly and heavily and 1t is pos
sible that they would have been
made uninhabitable after a short
space of time. Eventually the Brit
ish and French would have been
able to check this air war by i'm
proved anti-aircraft defenses, fight
ing machines and heavy reprisals by
bombing aircraft. In the mean
time, no territory would have been
taken by the German air force.
Second-The Czechs would have
been driven out Of Bohemia and
would have had to transfer their
capital from Prague to Slovakia
after not more than a month or six
weeks Of fighting. Thereafter they
would have attempted to hold the
Moravian line. Most experts believe
that they could have held there for
another month or six weeks, mean
while exacting terrific toll from
the attacking German infantry.
Third-Britain and France would
have controlled the seas, from start
to finish.
Italy May Have Chosen Allies.
Fourth-Italy would have been
forced by France and Britain to
make her choice-probably within
48 hours. She would not have been
allowed to be neutral. If Italy had
chosen Germany's side, the COM
bined naval power of France and
Britain would have swept her fleet
lOIIl OIlC 1MCN4eCA dAACeSAA VI OOCCACN
1t up "for the duration" The Suez
Canal would have been closed and
Abyssinia would probably have been
occupied by British regular troops
from India. No matter what hap
pened in Europe, Italy would have
lost her East African empire" The
Duce, in the opinion Of many re-
sponsible Italians, would have
chosen the allies.
Fifth-Russia would have moved
Immediately, all reports to the con-
trary Notwithstanding No fear of
counterrevolution could have stood
in the way. According to one very
excellent source, 200 Soviet planes
would have been sent to Czechoslo-
vakia Immediately and would have
been reinforced by 200 more two
weeks later. It was planned to send
100000 men to back up the Czechs
in Slovakia and to post 400 900 men
on the Rumanian frontier to pre-
vent a possible invasion Of that
country. This number was later to
have been increased to 5000
Sixth-There would probably have