Evening star., 1938-09-08
BUILDING BOOM
MAY SAVE RAILS
Peaks in Freight Traffic and
Construction Are Roughly
the Same,
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Soecial Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, Sept. s.-Although
the railroads have failed in their e.
forts to obtain a IS per cent cut in
wages-and it Is estimated that di-
rect labor costs consume nearly so
per cent Of gross revenues. while nxed
charges, considerably reduced in re-
cent years and still on the down.
grade, take less than 20 per cent
there is one possibility in the general
economic outlook which could work
out distinctly in their favor.
That possibility is the long pre-
dicted, long delayed and at last slow
ly emerging building boom" ANY,
thing like a building boom would
help the railroads where they need
it most. that is, in the volume of
freight being offered for transporta-
ton. 1t has been found that the
peaks of the longer cycles in freight
traffic coincide roughly with the peaks
in the building industry. The last
peak in freight traffic, for instance,
was reached in 1926 and the big gen.
eral boom year 1929 failed by more
than 100000 carloads to equal the
approximately 53.100, 0,O00-carload rec
ord Of three years before.
The reason is. Of course. that. As
one analysis puts 1t, 1T is the lum-
Der. sand. gravel. iron. coal. coke.
cement, steel. brick. lime. tile and
plaster that put the peaks on rail-
road freight trafnc. And this ad-
ditional freight brings with it 4 much
greater percentage Of profit to the
road"
Reason For Decline.
II We admit that . boom in build
ing can put the peaks on railroad
traf1c, then We may make the de-
duction that the decline in building
activity accounts for . good part
of the loss in freight trafic In re-
cent years. And that brings us to
the thought that too little blame for
the plight Of the railroads has been
laid upon the depression and too
much upon competition from motor
trucks.
An examination Of some Of the
facts in the case bears out such 4
conclusion. Take, for instance, the
freight claSsiflcations in which, ac-
cording to all the available informa-
ton. truck competition is heaviest
grain and grain products. livestock,
and merchandise Lei. Ness than
carload). Comparing 1887 with 1929.
We find that there has been quite a
drop in merchandise L. c. L. ship
ments. with the total for last year
more than 4,727 ,0O0 carloads under
1929. But in this classification the
depression also enters in as a factor
in reducing the fiow of goods.
Loss To Trucks.
Livestock shipments over the rails
last year amounted to only 725, 5,2O7
carloads, against l,4l9.lsl carloads
in 1929, and this is 4 plain case Of
the trah1c going to motor trucks to
An increasing extent. Shipments Of
grains and grain products last year
totalled 1,809.515 carloads over the
rails. against 2,396,l95 in 1929, q de-
cline Of $685. carloads of which 4
certain amount may be set down as
due to truck competition. If we
charge half Of the loss in merchandise
Lei. freight to truck competition,
and that is generous allowance,
and all the loss in grain and grain
products and livestock shipments be
charged to the same agency, the
total loss Of freight to trucks since
1929 might be set down as 1874 1863
carloads
But the total decline in the 1887
freight movement as compared with
1929 was 14.s34,997 carloads. And
on the liberal basis of estimation we
have used, trucks accounted for less
than 25 per cent Of that decline. A
more thorough comparison OF freight
statistics suggests that truck compe-
tition enters to an important extent
IN only thirty-one out of every 100
carloads of potential railroad freight
traffic. So that about SO Of every 100
carloads Of potential freight have no
other choice than to move by rail.
Declines in railroad freight traf-
nc which are directly traceable to
generally lower level of business
activity as between 1887 and 1929
are the loss Of 5,133,6l3 carloads Of
manufactures and miscellaneous
freight, 2,099,177 carloads Of coal, and
1,403 SOB carloads of forest products.
Such freight moves in carload lots.
and motor trucks so far have not had
much OF a look-in on the business.
Anything like real boom in building
may be expected to restore to the
railroads sizeable portion of such
depression-lost traffic before 1t has
rim jtS aDp0iDtod co,Irca