Henderson daily dispatch. (Henderson, N.C.) 1914-1995, 1938-07-01

Old SignpOsts Ignored.
However, many people believe that
all that has changed now Since the
depression, there has been a new me-
thod of figuring the effect of crops.
Many are pessimistic when prospects
favor a bumper harvest, while a crop
failure is regarded as an optimistic
sign. The New Deal scarcity theory"
has unconsciously gone over with
some of the younger generation They
recall 1881 as good farm years, but
the bottom dropped out of business.
They also remember that the crop
failures of 1884 and 1896 were follow-
ed by good fall business in bot.:
years. In addition. they have seen
farm prices crumble this Spring as
forecasts of big crops were announc-
ed. Hence, they look upon good har-
vests as a sign of poor business
These cases, however, are all CO.
medicines. In 1884 and 1896, we had
huge carry-Overs from previous sea-
sons. These SURPRISES had been keep
ing prices low. They had to be ELI
minated. Hence, when we had CROP
failures in 1884 and 1896, the SURPRISES
not only increased in value but were
used up and paved the way for bet
ter prices in the following seasons. In
the 1881 and 1882 cases, we were in
downward business spiral that had
to run it's course. At that time, we
were suffering from over-production
in industry as well as agriculture. The
big crops were only a drag on the
market. Furthermore, our surpluses
back in those gloomy days were not
exportable because of foreign trade
conditions.
Good Crops Boost Activity.
Our carry-overs from last season,
while larger than average, are not ex-
cessive. Prices are down to world
levels and are not particularly profit
able. However, big crops mean more
workers to handle them. They mean
wear and tear on farm machinery and
trucks. They mean the filling of more
space in grain elevators. They mean
more freight cars to haul grain and
livestock to market. They mean more
commissions for grain merchants
They mean more activity in farm
marketing centers. In. short, they
mean better business to all the by
product and service businesses.
Lower prices this year may bring
smaller total income for farmers in
spite Of the bigger harvests. But
there will still be a lot of money
crossing rural retail counters. Fur
thermore, lower. farm prices mean
lower food bills for hard pressed city
families. This releases more of the
urban dwellers' income for other pur-
chases. On the other hand, if we were
faced with a crop failure, the entire
picture would be changed. Fewer far
mers would be spending money more
people would be on farm relief, more
elevator companies and granger rails
roads would go into bankruptcy, food
prices would be higher for poor city
people, A crop failure in 1888 would
be disastrous. It would knock all
chances for business pickup this
fall galley west.
All Sections Have a Crop.
Farm income should be evenly
spread throughout the country this
year. During each of the last seven
years some part of North America
has been suffering from drought. The
Prairie Provinces of Canada, for in
stance, will have their first good crop
this season since 1881. My observa
ton is that every section should share
in the good 1888 growing conditions.
The previous stricken Dakotas, East
ern Montana, Western Iowa, Nebras-