Evening star., 1938-09-25

the other hand, it must be considered
also that the prices OF cars were
sharply down from 1929 so that even
though the industry had almost tied
its previous record numerically It had
not reached the same level In whole
sale value.
When 1888 came into the picture
estimates show that national income
was pretty well sustained, in spite of
the recession, while automobile sales
skittered of sharply. Best guesses have
placed the current years national take
at $4,000, 900 900, or somewhere in
that neighborhood. Car production
wholesale value is not expected to
reach more than $1,327 900 900 for the
calendar year. The nearest compare
BILE year in the past 10 from national
income standpoint was 1885, when the
total for the country reached S55,-
1877 100000. In that year the whole
sale value of motor vehicles produced
in this country was put at $685.
100000, or 81 per cent of the income.
This year the industries s1,327 ,0OO, 900
will represent only about 23 per cent
OF the national income which, when
compared with 1885, means that many
people who were in position to buy
this year just did not buy.
Part of the reticence on the part of
buyers must be charged to a reluc-
tance on their part to exchange 1887
models for cars which had been only
slightly changed in 1898. Coupled with
this also is the fact that 1888 cars
were in most cases priced higher than
in 1887. Chiefly, Of course, the shrink
age in sales this year must be charged
to fear and uncertainty, the causes for
which. and the reasons therefor, were
far less real than the fear itself.
But taking all these factors at the
net worth, there seems every reason to
believe that confidence is rapidly re-
placing fear. National income figures
indicate definite lag between income
and outlay for automobiles. Prices
are likely to be as low, If not lower.
than in 1887 and changes in automc-
bile design and engineering are suf1-
ciently marked, without being radical.
to stimulate desire to own new ca.
Then there is the ever-present boge
OF "saturation.' This queer word,
meaning that we have sold all the cars
the country can possibly absorb, first
made its appearance in the automotive
dictionaries back in the early '20s. At
that time there were less than 10000
900 vehicles registered in this country.
Today there are 3000O,OO0. Expert
projectors have pointed toward 1850
with the fond hope that before that
time registrations will have topped
As 900, 900.
After all, then, there seems every
reason to feel that the projection of 25
to 80 per cent increase in 1899 over
1888 is we'll justified
The National Automobile Dealers
Association. representing another part.
of the picture, also feels optimistic in
its September bulletin. 1t qualities
its hopes somewhat because Of skepti-
cism concerning the future and So
called wild trading"
1t states that general business condi-
tions continue to show gradual i'm
provement. Optimism is somewhat less
because of the prevailing "ifs" that
constantly threaten to disturb the for
ward push. We predict a reasonably
good year in 1899 for those automobile
dealers who apply intelligent manage
ment. A substantial replacement
backlog" exists that will be filed
provided business can operate without
undue hindrance. One drawback
persists that arouses skepticism con-
corning the future. Despite current
field reports indicating a shortage of
new automobiles and the known fact
that, in number of lines, some weeks
may elapse before 1889 models are
available, the almost universal CRY
from dealers is that trading is wilder
than ever" They say prevailing used
car allowances are ridiculous. Why?
Dealers freely admit that little, if
any, factory pressure exists. Stocks,
both new and used, are not excessive,
If wild trading" is to continue into
1889, it will make very little difference
how many cars are retailed Profits
will be as slim as ever.
What effect the present war scare
abroad will be cannot be foretold at
this time. 1t Is bound to have an
effect. In the event Of war itself there
will. Of course, be another and a
greater effect.