The Washington times., 1938-11-05

harlow Curtlce Qe1lmte IN Gn6
minds of business students. This
reveals a creditable tendency tc
be safe" to avoid holding ouI
false hopes to the business man
the farmer, the manufacturer, the
merchants, and the wage Garner
all of whom will benefit with i'm
provement in the national econ
omy.
In this sense, the general ap
praisal of the immediate future
of American business can reason
ably be said to be somewhat DE
low what actually may happen.
MINIMUMS SET
"Minimums" have been estab-
liShed to the extent to which re-
covery may go and there is, OF
course, good reason to believe that
these minimums will be exceeded
In the automobile business we
attempt to gauge the long range
automobile market. We study eco.
nomic trends and the variety OF
influencing factors in an effort to
arrive at what the market will be.
On the basis of these studies, and
the information thus assembled,
our manufacturing programs for a
new model year are set up.
These programs are subject to
revision, upward or downward, de-
pending upon immediate busl'
ness trends and more specifically
upon the immediate demands
for our cars. Automobile produc
ton usually is scheduled over a
three-month period, and commit
mentS to suppliers of materials
such as the steel and rubber in
dustries, are made on this basis
Under more sensitive markets
changes in assembly schedules
either up or down sometimes are
more frequent, fitting production
as closely as possible to retail de
mand.
REVISIONS UPWARD
It is an interesting observation
that most of these production re
visions during the past five years
with the exception of the first six
months of 1898, have been up
ward. The industry's long-range
estimate of its market has almost
without exception been conserva
&iUoIv short Of tho marx
Thus a basis of manufacturing
operations is laid below which &C
tual operations. Notwithstanding
the Sensitivity of the market, uSu-
ally do not go. This permits the
automobile industry to effect the
greatest possible "leveling" of its
program, within the limits of the
seasonal nature of its business
with resultant Steadying of EN-
ployment.
The industry currently is enter
ing another new model season ia
Vored on every hand by indica
tions of further upturn. Business
generally has swept forward since
midyear, with leading industries
registering sharp gains. In many
cases new highs for the year have
been established during the fourth
quarter.
UPTREND RECOGNIZED
The uptrend has been sharp
and the basic causes underlying
1t pronounced. 1t was early recog
nized by the automobile industry
which swung more quickly int
the production of its new model
In order to keep dealers supplied
with cars to sell.
Since then, Europe successful,
passed a war crisis, removing on
of the most potent barriers t,
further business progress in Amer
lea, and materially restoring cor
fidence that the upswing woult
continue.
BaSically, the groundwork ha
been laid for recovery movement
inventories have been depleted
consumption has run far ahead o
production in most lines, and in
come paid out is at a rate sui
ficient to support production a
much higher levels than have pre-
vailed during the past year.
IN ALL MAJOR LINES
Informed sources say that bus
ness recovery in the last 81!
months has been one of the mos
rapid in history Heartening i'm
proVement has been recorded il
all major lines and all signs poin
to a continuation of the upwart
movement. Activity at present i
at the best level it has been il
more than a year.
Bucks experience supports tn
encouraging outlook. Orders o.
hand for the 1889 models surpas
any previous announcement pt
riod in the recent history of tn
company and public acceptanc
OF the new cars indicate that orif
inal estimates for 1889 model prC
duction again will have to be n
viSed upward.