The Washington times., 1938-10-17

which have
weighed upon
it since 1888
an abnormal Lewis Haney
amount of uncertainty, huge un-
employment, and heavy taxes.
But, despite the handicapS, Sep
tember figures show continued re-
covery, and appear to clinch the
conclusion that period of real
cyclical expansion has begun.
This is why the stock market
goes up.
AS usual, we may turn to the
iron and steel industry for quick
picture of the industrial trend.
Here we find a continued upward
trend In all departments except
prices, and that may be a favor
able symptom. It is an old Span
ish custom in steel to keep prices
steady during a depression when
there is hardly any steel being
sold. ard then cut them as buSi-
ness picks up in order to get
volume.
STEEL OUTPUT UP
Be that as it may, the outputs
Of steel ;ngots and pig iron both in
creased more than seasonally, and
blast furnace activity gained con-
siderably. With steel-making &C
tivity not mu n above so per cent
of theoretical capacity, however
there is plenty of room for further
expansion.
To be sure, pig iron production
seems to have run ahead of steel
making, and steel shipments GER
tainly did not keep up with steel
production. The producers, how
ever, seem to be confident that in
due course the demand will
broaden in true cyclical fashion
and justify some accumulation of
raw steel just now.
The automobile industry almost
certainly saw the bottom of the
cycle in August. The output in
September, estimated at over 85,-
900, represents a much-lesS-than-
usual seasonal decrease for the
month.
: METAL STOCK BULLISH
= The same can be said of machine
tool orders which are so often
barometric for general business.
In September, they we're off less
than usual, and the adjusted index
is the highest for the year. This
warrants the opinion that we are
still headed up in a new business
cycle.
Certainly the metal statistics are
bullish. with large declines in sur
plus stocks of zinc and copper,
while prices rose. In the case of
zinc, both orders and untitled Or
derS increased, clearly justifying
the increased shipments which ate
into the unsold stocks on hand.
AS might be expected, we find
back of the demand for metals,
not only a turn in the motor trade
but also increased building &C
tivity. September building per-
mits gained more than usual, thus
resuming the upward trend that
was interrupted by the July
August gyration. Construction
contracts actually awarded, on an
average daily basis, were above
the August level, and So per cent
above a year ago. The F. w.
Dodge Corporation reports that
the prospect for residential build
ing during the remainder of 1888
and, at the very least, through the
p first half of 1899, appears exceed
ingly good"
N. Y. EMPLOYMENT
. Factory employment in New
York State was up sharply in Sep
tember and more than SeaSonally,
and payrolls gained even more.
, The latter are still relatively low,
however, and this is a good sion
that further recovery is to be ex-
pected.
Metals and machinery employ
ment made significant gain. The
larger increases came in boat and
ship building. railway repairs,
automobiles and parts, women's
clothing, woolens, carpets and
felts, pianos and musical inStru.
ments, iron and steel, and paper
boxes and tubes
Some 500 department stores in
253 cities throughout the nation
reported an increase in sales over
August. Allowing for seasonal vari
alton, the average daily sales ir
September was So per cent of the
1923-25 average This compare.
with SO in August.
W { MarL - lad.