Evening star., 1938-01-05
RECEIPTS OF 1887
TOP FIVE BILLION
Revenue Figures Show Gain
of $1,178,O 900, 900
Over 1896.

TINE text Of the Presidents
budget message to Congress
follows:
4 To the Congress of the
United States:
Pursuant to provisions Of law I
transmit herewith the budget of the
United States Government for the
fiscal year ending June 80, 1899,
together with this message, which is
part thereof. The estimates have
been developed after analysis Of the
revenues, obligations and reasonable
needs of the Government, and rec
ommend appropriations for the pur-
poses specifically detailed herein.
In simple fairness to the Treasury
OF the United States am confident
that the Congress and the public will
bear in mind certain fundamentals
relating to the making Of the national
budget.
The first step calls for the presen-
tation, before the 18th of September.
by every department and agency
head, of estimates of appropriations
for the fiscal year beginning the first
day Of the following July-in other
words at least nine months before
the spending of the money can begin
These estimates, carefully prepared
by the budget officers and other off,
cials of each department and agency,
are intended to represent what they
consider the minimum needs Of the
work assigned to them by law.
Estimates Furnished Secretary
By Civil Service Experts.
Thereupon the Director Of the
Budget presents these totals to the
President, who without taking up the
thousands Of separate items asks the
Secretary Of the Treasury for esti-
mates Of the total amount of tax re-
reipts which the Government may
obtain during the IL months be-
ginning nine months later. This esti-
mate by the Secretary Of the Treas
ury Is furnished him by civil service
experts who have ng-standing ex-
perience with the whole subject of
forecasting economic conditions in
what may well be called the remote
future. These experts properly call
attention to the fact that they are
asked to guess what the economic
status-and therefore the tax re-
ceipts-will be during the fiscal year
beginning the first Of the following
July.
II the forecast Of tax receipts made
BY these experts, who are at least of
equal competence with the experts Of
the largest banks and industrial cor
porations Of the United States, show
that the departmental estimates of
expenditures will exceed the estimated
tax receipts, the President instructs
the Director OF the Budget to make
every possible effort as q result OF his
hearings to pare the departmental
estimates in order to reduce the total
Recommendation Then
Given to President.
During the months Of November and
December and after the hearings have
been held by the Director of the
Budget. he presents to the President
the total estimates with his recon-
mendations.
Again the President obtains from
the Treasury Department 4 check-up
on estimated revenue during the year
beginning the following 1st Of July.
If the new report shows q probable
falling of Of revenue, he makes every
effort with the assistance Of the Di-
rector OF the Budget to make further
reductions before approving the final
department and agency budgets.
1t should be remembered that the
laws provide that the departments and
agencies shall carry out certain du-
ties. BY these laws, the President and
the Director Of the Budget are, in
effect, prohibited from eliminating
Government functions or curtailing
them to the point Of ineffectiveness.
The result Is that the President and
the Director Of the Budget arrive at
q figure for each department and
agency which they believe to be the
proper amount under which the func-
tions required by law can be carried
out with reasonable efficiency.
Final Revenue Estimates
Obtained From Treasury.
During the final two weeks of the
calendar year, the President obtains
once more from the Treasury Depart
ment its final estimates Of tax reve-
nues during the fiscal year which be-
gins more than months later.
Since the tax revenues from prac-
tically every major source depend on
business conditions during that future
fiscal year, the Treasury's figures Of
necessity are based on a prophecy OF
business conditions beginning months
later and ending 18 months later.
Business concerns are more for
tunate. They also lay out programs
months and even q year and a half
IN advance. But their programs are
flexible. They are controlled currently
by the condition Of business, which
changes from month to month and
even from week to week.
The affairs of the Government are
not 20 flexible. The budget reports
Are the administrators fiscal plan:
and in the form adopted by the Con-
gress during the winter and spring. it
becomes practically q fixed program of
expenditure which cannot be changed
for many months even though eco
nomlc conditions radically change the
receipt side of the ledger.
Definitely More Accurate
Than in Past Years.
While re-emphasize the difficulty
OF estimating the revenue of the Fed
eral Government from to 18 months
before that revenue flows in, there Is
satisfaction In knowing that during
the past four years the estimates of
tax receipts thus made far in advance,
have been infinitely more accurate as
proven by the final result than In the
preceding years. Estimates remain q
prophecy; but our prophecies have
been far better borne out by later
events than prophecies Of earlier
years.
It u also worth while TO call the