Evening star., 1938-12-03
BY JOHN c. HENRY.


hearings began this Deek.
BY JOHN c. HENRY.
Estimating current unemployment
at about 10,569 900, Leon Henderson
New Deal economist, told the Fed
eral Monopoly Committee today that
a record Federal Reserve index of
production of l40 would be needed
to absorb this load.
At present the index is about l0l
1t was about 120 in 1929.
If production should return to
the 1929 level, unemployment still
would be near 100000 Mr.. Hender-
son said. condition created largely
by an increase in the Nations labor
supply.
Digging deeply into employment
statistics and estimates. Mr.. Hen
derson, now serving as executive
secretary of the committee. cited
unemployment figures as follows:
March, 1933-14,317.00
July, 1937-7.412,OOO.
February, 1881. 1893 900.
October, 1938-10,569. 900.
Labor Force Has Grown.
In appraising these estimates, he
pointed out, 1t is necessary to realize
the growth in the Nations labor
force during the past 10 years. To
reflect this, he cited the following
estimates:
January. 1929 9048 ,OOO,0 900.
March, 1933-5O,300,O0
July, 1878 100000.
December, 1938-54 100000.
Employment records. Mr.. Hender-
son said show about 43.58O 900 now
at work in all occupations in
America.
Mr.. Henderson paid tribute to the
industrial system which still can
produce s62,0OO.OO 900 in national
income this year.
II don't believe we are in for stag
nation and decline" he said. but as
things now stand our economic
growth has stopped and we must
make adjustments to meet this con-
dition"
Retires With Perfect Record.
Senator OMahoney, Democrat, of
Wyoming. committee chairman,
asked the economist to make a
prophecy as to unemployment in the
future, but Mr.. Henderson. recalling
his prediction of the recession of
1887, declined to do so, saying:
I'm more or less in the position
of man who makes a hole-in-
at golf the first time out. He saws
he's perfect and he'd better quit
now. I've retired from the field of
phophecy."
Referring to the many manifesto
tions OF economic change which
have been scanned briefly during
the past two days of background
presentation by Government wit
nesses, Mr.. Henderson declared:
"Outstanding change, and one
which is of greatest Importance, is
the significant departure, since 1929,
from our historical line of growth.
This is most apparent from the
course of industrial production since
1929. No observer can overlook it.
nor believe other than that as things
now stand, our growth has stopped.
I'm terms of per capita production,
we are failing to hold our own,
though the rate of chronological
holds its steady course. Some
hold firmly to the belief that our
economic ills are due to too rapid
a rate of change, and the lag in So
cial adaptation"
Basic Relations Shaken.
Basic reliances on which the
competitive capitalistic
system has been operating have been
shaken, the economist continued, by
the following developments:
/. Passing OF frontier.
O. Leveling off of population.
3. Decline of competition.
4. Decline in concept of possible
control through monetary policies.
S. INSTRUMENTATION of savings.
Insurance companies, savings
banks. corporate surpluses, etc.
G. Lessening of ompetition
through import restrictions.
7. Absence of great new industries
recently.
= 8. Excess of savings over new in
vestment in capacity to produce.
g. Enormous increase in consumer
credit
TO- Governmental intervention of
many kinds. (Alienation of ma
tional domain)
Lines Of Study Indicated.
Posing a long list of questions
which have direct bearing on the
entire picture. Mr.. Henderson then
outlined the Endicated main lines
of study, some to be undertaken by
the committee and others by estab-
lished government bureaus.
They follow:
/. Concentration and control.
2. Price system and price policies.
3. Effect of governmental policies.
4. Bureau Of Industrial Economics.