Evening star., 1938-10-25
OF STARS,
MEN AND ATOMS
Notebook of Science Prosress
in Field, Laboratory
and Study.
BIZ THOMAS r, HENRY.

Nineteen hundred and thirty eight
may be Americas healthiest year.
Possibility Of establishing the best low
death rate and sickness mark OF all time
is seen in a provisional analysis OF the
reports for the first six months from all
parts Of the Nation by statisticians Of
the Public Health Service.
From January to June 80, this an
alysis shows, there was very close race
with the healthiest year up to date, 1888.
This year fell a trifle behind, but with
six months to 90 the 1888 mark might be
exceeded. Says the Public Health serv-
ice report:
Unless there is a marked reversal OF
trend, the mortality rate from all causes
Of death during the current year VIII
be the lowest on record with the possible
exception of 1888, when the death rate
was only 1O.7 per 1000 population. The
rate for the first six months of 1888. JOB,
is only slightly higher than the low rate
for 1888 and represents decrease OF
85 per cent from the rate Tor 1881.
Every State for which data are avail
able reported lower rate than for 1887.
although this decrease in the NOR
tality rate is reflected in nearly all the
important causes of death, about oO per
cent is accounted for by the decreased
prevalence of influenza and pneumonia,
especially during the first quarter OF the
year. The death rate for influenza 1or
the first half of 1898 Is only one-third
the rate for 1887. and that from pneu-
monia is only three-fourths the rate Tor
the corresponding period last year
THE downward trend Of the death
rate from tuberculosis continues un-
checked and the current rate Is III per
cent less than the corresponding rate
for 1887. 1t is possible that the rate Tor
1898 will drop below SO per lOO,00O Tor
the first time. The decline In infant
mortality has been even greater than
that from tuberculosis. The current rate
of "a. per 100000 life births is Is per
cent less than the corresponding rate
for 1887.
THE widespread efforts to prevent
traffic accidents apparently are achiev-
ing success, since the mortality rate from
automobile accidents for the first half
year is 20 per cent less than the rate
for a similar period in 1887. This de-
crease is widespread. only four Of the
States reporting higher rate than for
last year.
The only important cause Of death
for which the current rate Is greater
than that for 1887 is cancer, for which
an increase Of about per cent Is re-
ported. The serious outbreak Of measles
which occurred last winter continued
into the second quarter Of this year. AS
a result the death rate. As for 100 600
population. is more than four times the
corresponding rate for 1887. Slight in
creases also occurred in the mortality
rates for whooping cough, and for disr-
rhea and enteritis under two years OF
age.
Another outstanding feature Of the
record for the first six months OF 1888
was widespread decline in the infant
mortality rate. Only five States reported
a higher rate than for 1887 and the
current rate Is nearly 9 per cent less
than that for last year. The birth rate
for 1898 has continued slightly above
that for 1887. This increase. combined
with the lower death rate. has resulted
in a crude rate of natural increase Of
per 1000 population. compared with a
corresponding rate of 43 per 1000 for
1887"
The possibility OF beating the 1888
record is seen from the fact that the
first six months Of any year are nor
mally the least conducive to good health.
Epidemics have habit Of breaking out
in late winter and early spring. During
the four months of the second quarter
which have already elapsed there has
been no widespread epidemic Of any
sort. The months of autumn and early
winter ordinarily are fairly healthy. The
great killer, pneumonia. does not get a
good start until after Christmas.
Public Health Service officials believe.
however, that the Nations mortality
rate will fluctuate around the 1888 rec
ord for some time to come. There will
be epidemic years which will send 1t
close to II per 1000 and there may be
some very healthy years when the all
time record will drop very close to 10.
In the present state OF medical science
there is little likelihood that it will drop
much below this. Any notable further
progress will depend on step-by-step
conquest of the various scourges of mid
die age-especially heart and kidney all
ments and cancer, whose toll remains
about stationary from year to year. There
may even be a slight increase, but the
statistics are hard to interpret and this
showing may be Elusive.
In both 1898 and 1887, the Public
Health Service graphs show, February
was the unhealthiest month. Last year,
however, there was sharp rise to nearly
1875 per 1000 in the death rate for that
month, while this year the rise was
barely perceptible. The curves for the
two years join in late May and June. Be-
fore that the 1897 curve was well above
that for 1888 all the way.