Evening star., 1938-10-30

brOWed scientist went to the Smithsonian and
was assigned the job of studying solar radia-
ton. then supposed to be a const ant quantity
With heat catching apparatus he established
himself on various mountain tops and began
adding up the amount of warmth the sun
showered on the earth Remember that at
this time no one had thought of the sun as
variable star. But Abbot's findings indicated
that it did vary as much as 10 per cent
i'll its heat output.
Then the young scientist had another idea.
Maybe when the sun was sending out less heat
earthly temperatures dropped. The idea
sounded reasonable enough to be worth check
ing. From scores of places he gathered infor-
nation on observed temperatures. Tallying
these against his solar observations he found
that there was a direct connection. When the
sun was delivering its smallest amount of heat
the earth was nearly three degrees cooler than
normal!
Very we'll, said Abbot. sunspots appear in
quite we'll l-defined cycles $780, each little over
eleven years paralleling Douglas tree-ring
cycle Maybe solar radiation followed SIM
liar pattern To track this down he established
radiation laboratories in the bleakest spots on
earth -o on mountain peaks where atmos-
pheric dust would be least likely to absorb the
suns heat and ruin results. One in Chile
another in Egylt and third on Table
Mountain in California. A fourth has just
been finished in New Mexico. The job. which
has SO far consumed 35 years. is by no means
finished But material valuable enough to
allow one of Abbot S colleagues to set up
commercial foreCasting business has been
brought forward This man has been suf-
Gcicntly accurate with his seasonal forecasts
to attract the same group of clients year after
year.
Another commercial fOrecastcr believes that
motions of stars and planets are chiefly re-
sponsble for the earths weather He. too. has
made predictions months in advance which
have been accurate enough to attract scores of
clients - at the rate OF $lOO year.
This man agrees that the United States is
in for bitter winter - all except the Pacific
Coast region Snow he adds. will be plentiful
east Of the Sierras.
Another group OF scientists is studying the
oceans in the hope Of finding there the secrets
OF future weather The oceans are 50 vast they
reason, that their temperatures must exert
some influence on weather: but finding and
interpreting that relation can come only after
tens of thousands of patient observations are
made. Probably the greatest amount of work
in this field has been done at the Scripps Instl
tuition of Oceanography in California This
work is only beginning and it is too early to
draw conclusions But the start. at least. has
been made.
by and large. long range foreCaStcrs are not
interested in telling whether the sun will shine
on any specific day. The big questions in
voved are the amount OF rainfall to h
expected and what the average seasonal tenn
peraturc will be. A drop of as little as four
degrees below the normal average of winter
means season Of historic bitter.
ness In such marginal areas as the dust bowl
a few inches under normal rainfall means
poverty for all inhabitants. and a few inches
above normal means extraordinarily rich
crops A heavy blanket Of SNOW for the Mid
west means moisture for early crops and
(Continved on pose I3)