Evening star., 1937-11-06
BUILDING IN 1888
SEENAT
F.W. Dodge Corp. Forecasts
Larger Number of Homes
Next Year.

Privately financed building and en-
gineering work in 1898 should ap-
proximate the same volume as this
year, according to Thomas s. Holden,
vice president of F. w. Dodge Corp,
In statement on the construction
outlook made public today. How
ever, publicly financed work is likely
to continue its decline, resulting in
a moderately reduced total volume of
construction next year.
The Dodge estimates indicate that
100000 to 100000 new family dwelling
units are likely to be built in the
entire country next year, compared
with an estimated $4,000 to 1875. 600
in 1887, and 10000 in 1885. This
moderate increase in residential build
ing IS likely to be accompanied by a
volume OF commercial building ap-
proxlmately the same as this wears.
and declining volume OF factories and
public and institutional buildings.
While combined moderate increases in
residential building and moderate de-
creases In non-residential building
would give total building volume
ABOUT equal that of 1887, heavy en-
Rlneerng work is also likely to de-
cline somewhat, resulting in a net
decrease in total building and en-
eineering volume.
Recession Moderate.
Inc current recession in building
has, to date, been quite moderate In
character, having consisted principally
In declines in publicly financed work.
Privately financed building, both resi-
Dental and non-residential, continued
to run ahead of last years volume
right through the middle of October.
During the first nine months of 1887
private construction of all kinds in the
81 Eastern States reached total of
81 ,436, 1894 500, which was IS per cent
ahead OF the figure for the cor
responding period of 1886, while public
building and engineering work has
declined 18 per cent from last year.
Expectations of large and rapid
boom in residential building were not
justified at any time this year, nor
are they justified in anticipation for
next year, according to the Dodge
Corps analysis of the situation. Es-
Inmates OF housing requirements run
ming from 100000 to 100000 family
units a year represent social needs;
they do not represent an economic
demand at the present stage of partial
business recovery. They probably can
not be translated into economic de-
mand in a period of rapidly rising
costs, but will only be realized on
a broad scale by such future improve
ments in home-f1nancing and home
production as will definitely provide
better houses at lower costs than
at present.
Two Factors Overlooked.
Two important factors are GUS
fomarily overlooked in most current
appraisals of construction industry
prospects: Urban population growth
IN the first half of the current decade
was at the rate of 100000 new persons
annually, compared with 1,400 900 per
year in the 1920s, according to esti-
mates recently made public by the
National Resources Committee. Old
fashioned speculative building booms,
of the kind anticipated in predictions
widely publicized during the past IL
months, practically always have been
stimulated by urban and suburban
population growth. The second factor
Is that there is at this moment no
great expanding industry, like rail-
roads and automobiles in the past,
to stimulate general economic ex-
pansion on broad front and gen.
crate the greatly increased purchasing
power necessary for big building
boom on rising construction costs.
Careful appraisal of the current rises
In business and building volume in
dicates a period Of recovery from de-
preston, but not necessarily, as yet,
period of general industrial expansion.
Next year, as viewed by Mr.. Holden,
will probably be neither one of serious
recession, nor of very rapid recovery
progress; almost certainly, not boom
year. 1t will most likely prove to be
a year OF consolidating and stabilizing
recovery gains, with a slogr start in
the f1rst quarter, and the probability
Of definite improvement somewhere
around the middle of the year.