The daily independent., 1937-07-01
Best Farm, Year Means Good
Retail Trade This Autumn
But Mr. Babson Is Speaking In Broad General Terms
and Not Thinking About Potatoes

soil moisture drained away in the
last three years. July i, the cr!tl-
cal month for this vital feed crop
A lot can happen between now
and August first. Cotton has yet
20 pass through its test period.
Mo t of the other leading crops
a"e now in such good shape that
only extremely poor weather IN
July can severely injure them.
Pastures and ranges alone are be-
low the average season. Truck
gardens, fruit orchards, hay field :,
and early potatoes are in good
ccnda ion. Even egg and milk
production are higher than usual
at this season. This is a farm
year!
To,al income of American huS-
bandmGn il the low year of the
d pre- SIGN reached only $5,400,-
OO1. 900. Now, four short years
later, acreage prices are $50 per
cent higher than ti.ey were at the
lew in 1888. At wholesale, wheat
is up 140 per cent, corn $50 per
cent, hogs 270 per cent, eggs and
poultry 100 per cent, and milk and
butter 60 per csnt. HouS2keeperS
are well aware of this even though
their weekly retail bill for foodJ
has been advanced half as much
as wholesale quotations. The big
rise in prices, plus good harvest,
should boot farm income to
around $4,000, 100000 this season,
is per cent above a year ago.
and the highest total since 1929.
New Groups To Benefit
Higher prices for their short
crops have pulled mot farmers
through the drought years, but the
service" people have been hit
hard. Commission houses, grain
elevators, storage concerns, and
the like are geared to handle
mammoth harveSts. They starve
on crop failures. Grain traffic
totals more than 80 per cent of
some granger railroads revenues.
A short crop this year would have
dealt these roads a death-blow
Then, too. good harveStS every
where at good prices mean every
one gets his share of the income.
Some sections have not had a
CROP since 1881! This year, all
farm areas with the exception of
;ections of eastern Montana, the
western DakotaS, weSt-central
Kansas and northwestern Okla
homa, should have good harvests.
A bright seacon for the farmer
in 1887 is particularly fortunate
break" for the factory worker.
In all my years of studying the
business cycle and public senti-
ment, I have never seen confidence
change so rapidly as it has this
year. Mills are shutting-down;
forward-buying has stopped; in
veStorS are nervous. The tenn
porary problems which are troub-
ling the business world, however,
will be settled eventually. Never
theless, it will take some convinc-
ing announcement from Wash
ington, some reassuring news
Europe. or some bullish report
from the business front to yank
confidence out of its slump. To
supply that spark, 1 am pinning
my hopes on crop reports and
farm news.
Good Retail Outlook
There are 32,000,0OO people in
the United States whose liveli-
hood directly depends upon farms.
There are 24,000,000 others who
live in rural communities. Can
ada has an additional 5,5OO,OOO
non-urban population. For years
these groups have just been scrap
ing by. This season they will
have good crops, good prices and
a good income. Thus, after a de-
cade Of relative depression, nearly
half our population will enjoy
their first year of real prosperity
At the same time, 100000 who
work in factories will earn around
S50,000,000 more per week than
they did year ago, while invest
orS' dividend checks will be at
least S1O,OO0,OOO greater. These
facts add up to only one conclu-
sion: GOOD RETAIL TRADE
THIS AUTUMN!