Evening star., 1937-11-03

the election PROM
ise was ill-fated #$%
and that recovery
Is not only not
here. but that a serious recession in
business is on the way. Here, for in
stance, is the official announcement to
the farmers of the Nation just issued
by the staff of the Bureau of Agricul-
tural Economics, assisted by repre-
sentatives of the Agricultural Adjust
ment Administration, of the Federal
Extension Service. of the Federal Bu-
reau of Home Economics and of the
State agricultural colleges
"An analysis of the general situa-
ton indicates that in the fall of 1887
the upswing of the business cycle has
been temporarily halted. Although it
is impossible to determine definitely
to what extent the present recession
will continue into 1888. the chances
appear against sufficiently early Wig
orous rise in 1888 to bring the average
of industrial activity and of consumer
. incomes for that year up to that OF
1887"
Lower National Income Seen.
Then the same statement goes on
to say:
"The national income for 1898 is
expected to be below the high level ol
which prevailed in 1887, tentatively
estimated to be about SO billion dol
lars
Just the other day the President al
Hyde Park was discouraging in
quirers who wanted to know if busi-
ness would be stimulated by tax re-
vision. He spoke of a progressively in
creasing national income and led his
hearers to believe that 80 billion OF
even 100 billion dollar income was
within the realm of his thinking fol-
the future. Now it comes out that the
increases in national income which
have been recorded every year since
1882 have been halted-for how long
nobody knows.
Did the President plan that the ma
tional income should stop growing and
that there should be business reces-
sions which would send the shivers up
and down the business vertebrae of the
country and would cause States and
cities to worry about increases in
relief rolls?
PLANNED 1t That Way"
II one is to take what the Presi-
dent said in the autumn of 1885 and
compare it with the situation existing
today-just two years later-it will
be noted that Mr.. Roosevelt believed
he had solved the problem of recovery
and that he had done it notwithstand-
ing the current belief that pump
priming" was an artificial device and
Of no enduring value Speaking at
Charleston, S. c., on October %, 1895,
Mr.. Roosevelt said:
Yes, we are on the way back-not
by mere chance. Not by turn of the
cycle. We are coming back more
soundly than ever before because we
planned it that way, and don't let
anybody tell you differently"
Was it the Presidents plan to have
series OF cycles, a series of booms
and receSsions? Or were up-and-
down curves merely the product of
"old deal" ineptitude and to be for
hidden under the New Deal?
The agricultural economists of the
Government have access to every bit
of official data and much unofficial
data from which to formulate their
advice to the farmers of the country
on how to adjust themselves to the
year ahead. The document is most
comprehensive and is, of course, pre-
pared without thought of political ef
fectS or trends.
Merely Stating Facts.
Naturally, the group of official econ
on1lsts are not discussing the WHY
and the wherefore of present business
conditions, but merely stating facts.
What these economists say is not.
therefore, as some thick and thin SUD-
porters of the New Deaf say about
everything adverse, merely Liberty
League propaganda" There comes a
time when the blind followers of the
New Deal will have to admit that New
Deal economics has not worked out
well and that something else" must
De tried. though not necessarily what
the right wingers want.
There are IN the economists report
some encouraging words for the inter-
national co-operationist. AS domestic
trade declines there is some sign of
Improvement in international trade.
Says the official analysis:
THE volume of total world trade in
1886 was 5 per cent larger than in
1885, and during the first quarter of
1887 it was more than IL per cent
larger than in the corresponding pc
ROD of 1886. Barring new and unfore-
seen complications in international re-
lations. some further improvement in
world trade during 1888 is possible.
The increased demand for indus
trial goods arising from the improved
purchasing power in the countries SUD-
plying these products may be expected
to influence favorably world industrial
production and world trade"
But the sad truth is that economic
? planning" by the New Deal evidently
cannot iron out the curves in the busi.
ness charts nor do away with business
cycles-and if Mr.. Roosevelt "planned
1t that way" he kept his plans secret
till he passed the election day of 1896
and now one year later the economists
OF his own administration are telling
different story.
Copyright. 1877