The Kennewick courier-reporter. [volume] (Kennewick, Wash.) 1914-1938, 1937-10-07
THE OUTLOOK

III
THE OUTLOOK
To put it mildly the business out
look today is extremely confused.
On the one hand it is predicted
that this winters domestic COM
merce will be the best since 1929
with retail sales in some lines per-
haps exceeding the boom-time fig
ure. On the other hand business
leaders are seriously disturbed-and
many of them are plainly pessimis-
tic as to the trend of future events.
This anomaly is easily explained.
For, in the view of executives, the
short-term outlook is favorable, and
the long-term outlook Is bad. Pur-
chasing power is up, farm income Is
at q six-year high, consumer goods
are moving rapidly. Yet the unrest
in Europe, the tangled political sit
uation at home, including the
threat of more government in BUSH
ness, the apparent certainty of high
er taxes, the prospect of still more
serious labor disturbances, and the
nervousness Of security investors and
SPECTATORS are retarding factors.
AS everyone knows, the stock mar
ket took its biggest drop in a few
weeks ago. Values are far below
their spring and early summer levels.
And while the stock market is not
necessarily an accurate barometer
Of actual business conditions, it does
pretty closely reflect the views Of
finance on both big and small levels
and represents credit, capital and
reserve spending power. Explana-
tions Of the drop varied and disclos-
ed the opposed schools Of thought
now in existence. Stock market Of
ficials ascribed the collapse as be-
ing due mainly to excessively strict
regulating by the SEC, which has
largely eliminated speculative oper-
ators who in the past could be trust
ed to take up much Of the slack in
thin markets. Government Off
Gals, such as SEC head James Lam
dis who has recently resigned to be-
come Dean Of Law at Harvard de-
fend the regulatory policy intimated
that still more stringent regulation
may be necessary. Whether the Lam
dis point Of view is right or wrong.
such q policy evidently has q damp
ening effect on large industry.
So far as the political situation is
concerned, all is chaos. President
Roosevelt's sweep around the coun-
try, In the view Of most commenta-
tors, IS designed to give q chance
to meet and see people, to use his
personality, and to enlist public sup
port In his campaign against the
conservative wing Of his party. The
President. as he has said In almost
50 many words, Is now envisioning q
second New Deal which involves
still further enlarging Federal auth
ority, new and restrictive legislation
dealing with business practices, not
ably in the field of wages and hours
and q lessening Of the power of the
federal judiciary. There is still talk
that special session of the 18th
Congress, which convenes in Janu-
airy, including reintroduction of q
Supreme Court packing" bill.
Evidence is not lacking that Mr..
Roosevelt's popular following has
diminished the Black Klu Klux
Khan disclosures are perhaps the
most serious blow he has received.
But it cannot yet be said with ac-
curary that majority OF, the voters
are no longer willing to follow his
lead.
In some quarters it appears that
war Scares have been exaggerated -
and In others they have been too
much minimized. A major war
could not help but tremendously af-
feet American industry, whether we
became involved as belligerants or
not. General expert view is that
there will be no war next year-but
that there will be one in 1889, when
Europe's vast rearmament program
is more or less completed. American
foreign policy has so far been care
full, even timid-as it must. We are
in the delicate position of attempt
ing to keep clear of war-yet hav-
ing to maintain our prestige in the
interest of American citizens and
residents abroad. Hot-heads criti-
CHE Secretary Hull for what they
think is vaciliation. Cooler heads
generally approve his policy, think
that he is right in seeking to feel
our way gently and carefully.
There is talk of an entirely new
gross earnings tax on business. This,
coming on top of the present cor
poration income tax, the profits and
loss levy, the surplus tax and other
taxes, might make it impossible for
business to maintain expected divi-
dends, even in time of heavy or
ders. There is no organized move
ment behind such tax, however