Evening star., 1937-01-03

nOUttc JucCOTS III Tue ToCS JOT U0Uub
ornaments among the great pou-
ers thct wtI begin In earnest with
expiration OF the limitation treaties
on New Year eDe, are appraised
here By an eminent British author
ity on nnpdl affairs.
BY HECTOR c. BYWATER.
Y ONDON.-Two treaties which
for the last II years have more
or less put brake on the ex-
- pansion of naval armaments
came to an end at midnight December
81. After that the lid, so to speak,
came OF, for the London treaty Of
l936-not yet ratified and possibly
doomed to be stillborn-imposes no
quantitative check Of any kind.
Everything, therefore, points to the
development Of a naval race no less
intensive and even more dangerous
than that which preceded the World
War. In those days Britain and Ger
many were the only two serious COM
petitors for the trident Of Neptune.
Today no fewer than seven great
powers are working feverishly on naval
construction, and no one can foresee
the effect on the balance Of fighting
strength afioat a few years hence.
The Pacific, the Eastern Atlantic
and the Mediterranean are the three
arenas where the, as yet. silent strug-
gle for supremacy is being fought out.
In the Pacicfic the English-speaking
powers have much the same interests,
which center on the maintenance Of
the "open door" in China and the in
tegrity Of their respective territories
for the United States has still long
period Of responsibility for the de-
tense Of the Philippines before her.
In this shadow alliance" Holland,
by reason Of her East Indian empire,
Is also q partner Russia, too, is again
becoming factor to be reckoned with
in the Pacific naval situation, par
ticularly as she Is perhaps the only
power whose geographical position
enables her to challenge the Japanese
at their own doorstep.
Japan Stands Alone.
Japan, on the ot--- hand, stands
alone, for whatever 1e, rec of military
aid she may expect as a result Of
her anu-red pact with Germany,
there is no immediate prospect of
German feet reappearing in the Pa
cific. Japan's steady ncroachment
in China, coupled with her forward
policy in the South Seas, may even
tually align against her all the other
powers which have interests in the
Western Pacific. 1t Is because she
recognizes this possibility that she
Is now spending Al per cent of her
national income on armaments, the
Navy taking the lions share
In recent years the strategic out
look in the Pacific has become far
less advantageous to Japan. This
change Is due mainly to the rapid
but systematic expansion of the
United States Navy, accompanied by
bold and apparently successful ef-
fort to overcome the physical obstacles
which had hitherto barred the United
States Fleet from operating in Far
Eastern waters. The pan-American
air route from Hawaii to Manila
may prove to have blazed a trail
for the United States Battle Fleet.
Even five years ago most students
Of strategy would have predicted q
naval stalemate in the event of an
American-JapaneSe war, because of
the lack Of American bases west of
Honolulu. Soon. however, 1t Is pos
sible that the full weight of American
naval power will be capable of being
brought to bear. if necessary, in jap
anese waters. And, apart from the
American Nays numerical pre-
ponderance, there is little doubt as
to which fleet is superior in ma
terial, equipment and organization.
To the British commonwealth the
growing strength of the United States
Navy and the development of its
strategic freedom in the Pacific can
not be other than welcome. Indeed,
the trend of world events in the last
10 years has completely altered the
naval aspect of Anglo-American re-
lations. On the British side, at any
rate. all idea of rivalry has disap-
peared. Parity" once an apple of
discord, is now acknowledged to be
the common interest Of both nations.
Five Compete in Europe.
Turning to Europe, the powers in
tensively arming at sea are Britain,
Germany, France. Italy and Russia.
This year Britain has laid down
100000 tons Of new warships, five
fold increase on the figure for 1888.
On New Year day she began con-
struction of the two most powerful
battleships yet designed, and in March
next Parliament will be asked to au-
thorize a second pair of these masto-
dons. Older battleships are being
renovated at a cost of more than
100000 a ship.
The following other war vessels are
building: Three aircraft carriers, Is
cruisers. "a destroyers, 13 subma-
rines-and another big program is
being drafted for submission in the
Spring. As a further earnest Of her
determination not to yield the trident,
Britain has invoked the escalator
clause of the 1880 London treaty and
retained over 10000 tons of cruisers
and 10000 tons of destroyers in ex-
cess of her agreed quota.
There is. however, one awkward
snag in the channel. For every 100
tons that Britain adds to her fleet,
Germany is empowered by the BIZ
lateral treaty of June, 1885. to add
IS tons to her feet, and she Is taking