Henderson daily dispatch. (Henderson, N.C.) 1914-1995, 1937-01-01

recovery was running so strong in
1896, however, that it swept over every
obstacle and washed out the old year
in a burst Of glory
There are scarcely any figures on
record that can ms oh 1855 steady
gains in jobs, payroiS, industrial ac-
tivity, profits, and dividends. Topping
off the year was real post-electiOn
boom. Wave after wave of boosts and
bonuses and dividend increases and
extras lifted Christmas trade back to
old-time levels.
Eight Per Cent Gain For 1887.
The momentum picked up by this
surge of buying will carry into the
New Year. Business in 1886 was good.
Business in 1897 will be better. My es-
innate is for a 10 per cent gain in the
first six months over the initial half
OF 1886 1t is harder to make a definite
prediction for the second half, but I
think per cent gain over the clos
ing months of the old year is within
reason.
This would put my Babsonchart In
dex about per cent above normal by
the Fourth of July and approaching
10 per cent over normal by next
Christmas. The entire years gain
should average about to per cent
above 1896. Business will be above the
Ky line-in other words, in a pros
perity era--for the first entire twelve
month period since 1929! Unless
Labor Holds Whip-Hand.
1t is seldom that there is no "un-
less" 1886 was an exception. Then
there was no but to my bullishness.
Today, however there is one major
question in my mind--the labor pro-
blem. If this issue is not handled
properly, business could receive a very
rude setback. Workers are in the
most strategic position today they
have ever held.
Labor leaders can tie prosperity III
knot if they call a general walk-out
or they can give prosperity a boost
if they keep their heads. Do not mis-
understand me- | am not predicting
grave national labor tie-upS, even
though some current situations do
look threatening and even though
there will be a Zig increase in the
number Of strikes. merely say that
if labor leaders try to push too far
and too fast in their demands for
in for serious trouble
Four New Factors.
There are four new factors in the
picture today which give labor such a
strong hold on industry First, is the
tremendous gain in industrial produc-
tion and profits. Second, is the steady
rise in living costs. Third, is the big
gain in labors influence as indicated
by the election results. Finally, there
is the "powder-keg" row between the
Lewis and Green factions. These fac
tors, particularly the latter, all in
crease the tension of the situation.
The real key to this puzzle is the
Administration and its policy toward
labor. If trouble should develop, Mr.
Roosevelt with his almost unanimous
backing could swing the tide of bat
tie in whichever direction he wished
Because of the Presidents uuprece-
dented worker-fo!lowng the outlook
for labor troubles dc,'ends to a large
extern. On Washington.
Congress Not Harmful.
In fact, much depends on Washing
ton as far as most problems are con-
cerned. Not so many years ago it was
the vogue to take careful soundings
In Wal Street before making an an
nual forecast. Today the most impor-
liant preparation for my outlook let
ter is to. drop the lead-line in the
Potomac. fortnight before Christ
mas, | visited the Capital Experience
ed observers there believe that the
President may have more trouble
than the public inagines in holding
his huge Democratic majority to-
gether.
The Washington consensus is that
Congress will not be harmful to bust
ness in spite of the voters roar of
approval of the New Deal. There will
be lot of barking but little biting
The emphasis of the coming session
will be on perfecting legislation al
ready passed and adding a few
amendments thereto. | doubt il
hamperful of new reform laws will be
jammed through.
Bond Initiation To Continue.
1t will be two years before another
election, and the average Congress-
man will be worrying less about his
constituents and more about the Con-
stitution. Along this line, 1 expect to
see a big improvement in federal fin
ances; An effort will be made to cut
expenses. Relief aid will be continued
but not on the boondoggling scale of
the past three years. The govern
ments income should rise steadily as
1897 works along. But despite Wash
ington forecasts to the contrary |
doubt if the gain in revenue or the
slash in expenditures will be suffi-
Gent to bring the budget into balance
by June 80, 1888
This means that initiation will gain
ground this year. It has already taken
big strides in recent years although
the general public is entirely unaware
of it. Public debt has grown $16,OO0,~
100000 since July l. 1880. Tax receipts
have doubled since 1888. Still the
Treasury is forced to raise funds to
pay the public bills by selling govern
ment bonds. This money finds it's way
into the banks in the form of job
holders or contractors deposits. The
bank then INVESTS" these deposits by
buying more government bonds
The cycle repeats itself over and
over again, building up bank deposits
and ballooning the public debt. This
is canouflaged initiation. 1t will con-
time in 1897 aided nv another form