Evening star., 1937-08-01

a ropean dictators-the warning
speech of Undersecretary of State
Sumner Welles at Charlottesville on
July g. timed to precede by four days
the important meeting of the London
Non-intervention Committee, and the
new political credo issued by Secretary
Hull on July l6 announcing a de-
parture from Washington's traditional
policy Of aloofness in world affairs.
President Roosevelt and his three
usketeers-Secretary Hull. Under
secretary Welles and Ambassador at
Large Norman Davis-are now pre-
pairing a third and last warning shot,
to be fired in the event that develop
ments in Europe make it necessary
The White House and the State De-
psrtment are following with unusual
attentiveneSs all movements in Eu-
rope and Ambassadors and their staffs
are instructed to spare neither money
nor effort IN keeping Washington
posted on developments in Spain,
Czechoslovakia and other major dan
ger points across the Atlantic.
II no particular concern is felt about
the Sino-Japanese conflict, it is be-
cause the troubles on the Asiatic MAIN
land are so closely connected with Eu-
rope that the situation will become
better or worse in accordance with
what happens in Spain or in Central
Europe in the course of the Summer.
Smoke Screen Suspected.
Experts on the Far East hold the
opinion that the Sino-Japanese con-
flct is mere smoke screen to enable
the japanese general staff to concen-
trate an important force in Manchu-
kuo
The RuSsian-Japanese Amur River
incident, which occurred few weeks
ago. was a skillful arrangement to test
the temper of the Soviet Republics
The complete surrender of Soviet
rights on the Islands of Bolshoi and
Sennufu showed the Toxic government
that Russia is neither eager nor pre-
pared to fight 1t indicates that her
internal troubles have reached pro-
portions which worry Stain and Lit
vlnof and that until complete purge
has enabled the present ruler to place
the country on a bourgeois basis he
will be reluctant to take a chance on
fighting an external enemy, unless
compelled to do so.
The Peiplng incident is typically
Oriental. The 29th Route Chinese
Army is actually controlled by the Jap
anese. Its commander is believed to
receive substantial allowance from
Toxic 10 keep his men together. The
japanese have been masters-in fact,
if not in name-of the Hopei Province
for more than a year. 1t is not i'm
probable that the incident which has
given the japanese a chance to pro-
claim a partial mobilization of g.
100000 men and to rush new divisions
to China was a put-up job by the
| japanese and their Chinese hench-
| men.
Japan's Strategists Cautious.
The advantages of that incident are
obvious. The japanese general staff
has strengthened the kWangtung
| Army. The force of 100000 japanese
in Manchukuo and Northern China
has been increased to 265,00O men, and
more divisions are expected to reach
| the Chinese mainland in the course
of the next few weeks The japanese
strategists are known never to risk an
attack unless they have superiority
in numbers of at least two to one
and they did not have that superiority
over the Russians.
Furthermore, the japanese feel they
| must be masters of the region of the
Baikal Lake, so that they can cut COM
| municat tions between Siberia and Rus
sia when the latter's forces on the
| Amur are attacked To reach that i'm
portant strategic point. the japanese
must wage successful campaign
| through the Mongolian Republic
which is more or less under Soviet
| influence.
| But the active war preparations OF
Japan, the reinforcement of troops,
the rushing of large supplies of am
munition-desepite official statements
to the contrary-all are going on while
Toxic keeps an eye on Europe. Moth
| ing will happen-at least, so the best
informed quarters believe-unleSs the
European pot boils over.
DR.. Hans Dieckhoff, the German
Ambassador at Washington, called al
the State Department to express his
governments sympathy with our pol
icy of peace in the Far East. The
expression of sympathetic feeling or
the part of the German government
was received with Official pleasure
and unofficial skepticism. The Berlin
Toxic axis is we'll known here, and
while not so strong as the Rome
Berlin axis, it is substantial There i.
no doubt in the mind of anybody, here
or in other capitals, that the Jap
anese are awaiting the signal 60
from Berlin to launch their troops
across the Amur River. And that
signal may be given before very long
British Anxious.
The Spanish civil war might be-
come the cause of an international
confiagration at almost any time de-
spite the unquestionable desire Of
the British government to keep the
conflict within Spain-until the Brit
ish rearmament program is COM
pleted.
The feeling in France is somewhat
different. The Blum government man
aged to keep France out of trouble
Whether this can be continued un-
der the Chautemps administration is
still undetermined The nerves o.
the French people have become
strained. A year of war at their bor-
ders, rumors and provocations, bac
internal situation due to an empty
treasury and class hatred which
has become stronger since Blum
abandoned the reins Of government
the distrust of the working classes
of the Chautemps administration
which is already denounced as the
servitor of big business and the