The Waterbury Democrat., 1937-04-05
Nations .Of Europe Afraid To Start War
Continued from Page l)

II will throw her weight increasingly and heavily against war anywhere. Leaders Are Puxzled Il Furthermore, none of the political leaders is able to foregee exactly how the powers will align themselves in the event of war. None can place reliance upon the system of aIli- ances. Repeated violations of treat les has sapped almost all confidence in written instruments.
 In the military sphere the array of uncertainties is even more for- midable with the advent of modern war in three dimensions-land, sea and the air. In the theoretic do- main, military science is in a state resembling chaos. General Staffs are trying to fit the new 300-miles an hour airplane technique upon the old-style three-mile-an-hour speed of conscript armies.
 Military Technique Shaken i The development of speed has shaken military technique to its foundations. The possibilities of transporting entire armies with guns and munitions at 30 to 40 miles an hour, and great air offensives at POO to 300 miles an hour have upset all previous military conceptions.
 The efficacy of such new weapons as airplanes, tanks and gases and the defenseS against them is largely an unknown factor under present. day conditions. The imposSibi;ity of preventing air invasion on a large scale has introduced 8 totally new factor upon which the World war and the later Ethiopian and Span- ish conflicts have thrown no ap- preciable light.
 Secrecy Is Maintained
 The drastic policy of secrecy poS- sible under dictatorship is carried to an extent never before known. Dic- tatorS control communications and the press to rigidly that they might even conceal the fact that their countries are engaged in 8 war.
 Another uncertainty is provided by the potential war power of the totalitarian Cfascist) nations, where the entire country constitutes a great war-pawer plant.
 The effect of and defenseS against terror among civilians under gas and aerial bombinngS-a new develop ment of warfare aimed at the de- struction of the enemy's civilian nerve-is yet another unceratin fac- tor. Maj.-Gen. J. F. c. Fuller, fa- nous expert, says: This new tech- nique is built upon the irea of ter ror." verywhare, educational meas ures are being instituted against civilian panic in wartime.
 Other Salient Factors
 Other factors of wartime uncer- tainty include:
 The extent and effect of airbomb- ing on troop transport. In Spain, I often witnessed entire columns melt into the pround like cartridges and remain hours when government bombers weer hyinng in their vicin- ity. thus paralyzing troop move- ment.
 Whether mass conscript armies can sufficiently master the icreasing- ly complex machinery of modern armiety. I saw that difficulty in Ethiopia where the Italians suffered from shortage of chauffeurs and the lack of skill or motor truck drivers, chiefly due to the small number of automobile drivers in Italy.
 Peasant Lack Knowledge
 Peasants in most European coun- tries lack acquaintance with ma chinery to an extent scarcely cred ible in the United States.
 Tactical problems at the start of the World war were delightfully."- simple compared with the unex- plored regions now. Both the Ethio- plan and Spanish wars have provid- ed examples of how calculations of experts go awry under the impact of the modern "three-dimensiona" war.
 Most neutral experts were con- vinced Italy would either fail or take years to conquer Ethiopia. Even the Italian officeres told me they thoght two campaigns would be necessary. In Spain, Generals simo Francisco Franco thought he would win the revolution there in two weeks last July. He believed the insurgents would take Madrid in mid November.
 Gas, Planes In Ethiopia The decisive factors in Ethiopia were gas and airplanes which showed terror among the ignorant natives who were defenseless against them. The Spanish war-largest since the World war-has followed conventional lines and has thrown little light on war problems pos- sibly because aorplanes used are so paratively few and gas hitherto has not bee used, probably because neither side wishes to inflict 1t on the men of their own nationality.
 Many experts are inclined to di- minish the importance of gas in modern warfare. They say the pie ture of cities decimated by gas at- tacks is overdrawn, that the most terrible killing gases are all lighter than air and hence ineffective on the ground, that mustard gas" is onl disabling and results in few deaths.
 Nevertheless, the peculiar horri- bleness of the effects of gas has such hold on the minds of people that its use is certain to strike panich which Is among the principal ob- jectives of present-day warfare.