The Bismarck tribune., 1937-12-31

to retrace its steps late next spring
Sometime next year. however, hcme
building should again be hummine
along. The 1897 peak may even be
topped so that the average volume OF
new homes for the new year could be
above last years level. The new gov
ernment housing program could also
give the industry big lift. It Is even
possible that the home building boom
which really expected to develop IN
1897 will start late this coming year.
Real Estate More Active
Private non-residential construc-
ton, on the other hand. will be, lower.
I now see little incentive for new plant
expansion next year. Public utility
work, however, may take up the slack
caused by PWA pulling in It's horns
on public works projects: A decline u,
building costs should help volume In
the early months: but before 1888
closes costs will reverse their field
again and be on their way to q new
peak.
These higher costs will help real
estate values. New home prices,
which are now being shaded here and
there, will strengthen. However. ]
hold little hope for an increase IN old
house values. barring drastic infla-
tion. Good vacant property and mod
est well-laid-out modern homes are
among the best investments . person
can make today. For that reason
feel that 1898 IS going to be good
year for realty men-with . slow start
and an active finish.
Stocks to Rally
This same rough plan should also
hold for stocks. expect to see the
markets fly the revival signal before
1888 Is too old. It would be silly to
predict they will, or will not, break
through their 1887 March peak. It
makes little difference whether they
do or do not, for good stocks at cur
rent prices. in my opinion, offer ex-
cellent profit opportunities.
Furthermore. while selection will
again be important. diversificat!o1
will be the vital point In 1898. Some
groups will, Of course, do better than
others. II I had to guess the out
standing industries Of 1898 from .
market standpoint, would pick the
metals, oils, building materials, air
craft makers, stee6, chemicals, elec-
trical equipments and mail orders.
The utilities may surprise investors
and the rails are 50 low that any good
news could give them tremendous
increase Ia value. The
motors and rubbers offer less prom
ise because auto assemblies will be
below 1897.
Feature Of Bond Market
The bond market will be influenced
more BY business In 1898 than 1t has
been during late years. Medium
grades have registered = terrific drop
this fall and I look for price In
creasas In this group to feature the
bond market in 1888. Gilt-edge issues
are down much less, than these
medium grades.
This situation offers q good oppor-
tunity to make q few trades to i'm
prove yields and increase profit pos
sibilities. I make this statement for
I believe that the long-term trend OF
high-grade bond prices Is definitely
downward. Sound medium-grade
bonds should be q better purchase
for the next few months than senior
obligations. When money rates start
rising, high-grade bond values are
going to filter away slowly.
Trend Toward World Imitation
One Of the major reasons why I
am 80 confident that higher money
rates are inevitable Is the world out
look. None Of the major nations and
few Of the minor powers are today
operating on q balanced budget. Bill.
lions Of borrowed dollars, yens, marks,
and francs are being spent In mad
armament race. National currencies
are destined to become steadily
cheaper In terms Of goods. Further
more, there seems to be only q re-
mote chance Of averting world con-
flict: Through reciprocal trade agree
= genuine spiritual re-
Nval!
President Roosevelt and Secretary