Henderson daily dispatch., 1937-12-31
ness pattern.
Business Needs "Relief."

ington. A year ago my optimism nc
1887 was tempered by the labor issu
said: IF this issue Qabor) is no
handled properly, business could re
| ceiva p very rude setback" Now L an
tempering my 1888 optimism by sa1
inc that Congress must cooperate wit
business or this present slump couli
continue for some time.
Many of our current troubles conn
from fear and distrust. They are lar
gely psychological. Congress today
must treat business as a doctor should
treat a neurotic patient. Scolding
harsh diets enemas, and the like arr
out" A few sugar-coated pills in the
garb of kind words and a completf
rest from new laws is the prescription
which Congress must write for bust
ness.
Congress Will Help.
am quite confident, too, tina
Doctor Congress will help his patient
No one is quite so shrewd an ap-
praiser of public sentiment as the av-
erage congressman. When he has his
"ears to the ground, he is as keen as
a robin hopping about a lawn listen
WOTIlS.
for several months this fall, getting
their constituents reaction to re
form legislation. So with every con-
gresham and every third senator up
for reelection this coming autumn, L
believe that business will be given the
PSYCHOLOGICAL relief that it needs from
Capitol Hill.
The biggest aids could be tax re-
vision and a utility "armistice'. The
undistributed profits tax will Re
thrown out in everything except name.
New tax measures will be passed, cas-
ing up on capital gains lavies and per-
hans cutting down on the high income
bracket assessments. A lot OF talk will
be heard about a general sales tax
hut it will not be passed. Extending
the income tax into lower brackets
will be proposed, but killed.
Spending To Continue.
look for a truce between the gov
eminent and the utilities. More farm
control legislation will &c passed, con-
tinuing the huge federal farm OUTLAWS
Wage and hour legislation may go on
the statute books, but in a mllder
form than originally proposed. The
President will get only crumbs from
his government reorganization pro-
posal. Generally speaking, the marital
status of Mr.. Roosevelt and his big
Democratic Congress will reach the
legal separation stage-just short or
Reno divorce proceedings.
The increase IN unemployment re-
lief and new pump-priming measures
will keep public expenditures at
high level. Budget balancing cannot
now Be hoped for until the end OF the
1939-4O fiscal year at the earliest.
Hence, the trend Of the past five
years toward initiation will continue.
1t is vital that everybody remember
this. Just because initiation is not
making headlines now, do not con-
clude that it is not making Roadway.
Initiation is the biggest factor in the
long-pull business and investment out
look today.
Prices To Increase.
Initiation is not simply a domestic
issue. It is a worldwide influence. 1t
is one of the reasons why look for
some increase in prices in 1888. The
sharp drop in both farm and indus
trial commodities since August makes
it easy to forecast the price trend next
year. Sensitive commodities should
begin their rise some weeks before
business. They are at, or close to, their
bottom now. But | doubt if the 1887
commodity price peaks will be broken
next year.
In fact, next December an index of
784 raw and finished materials should
average only around five per cent
above the current level. Industrial
commodity prices will be the strong
est Farm products prices do not pro-
mise as much action. Leading the rise
will be non-ferrous metals, steel scrap.
and hides The readjustment between
supply and demand is quicker in these
industrial materials than it is in farm
products But the latter will move up
ward somewhat from present quota
tons.
Farm Outlook Fair.
1888 will see sharper control over
cotton, corn and wheat acreage.
Prices will end the new year well
above today's levels. Without a crop
failure, however, present carry-overs
are so large that they can prevent any
wild boom in quotations. Moreover,
expect to see a further drop in beef,
hog and lamb prices. Butter, milk,
eggs and poultry will also be cheaper
next year, due to lower feed costs.
1t would be foolhardy to attempt
any fixed forecast of farm income.
Barring crop disasters, however, my
estimate is for total agricultural re-
ceipts next year to drop five to 10 per
cent under the 1887 figures. Profits
are also going to average below those
for this past year. The goods which
farmers must buy will not be much
cheaper than they were in 1887, while
farm prices will actually average low
er than they have during the past
twelve months. Because of the above
situation, farm land values will show
little change for the year.
What About Wages and Strikes?
Industrial workers, after getting
away to a poor. start, should have q
fair year. During the first few months
unemployment will be serious. Hun
dreds of factories have slowed down
or closed completely. There are pro-
badly million more jobless since last
Labor Day. But the unions are cling
ing to their wage scales as desperate
ly as an antique collector to a family