Evening star., 1937-05-02
.9,0)0,O)OJOB[ESS,
TWOACENC|ESSAY
Estimates Stir Controversy,
Due for Airing at MaIoney
Bill Hearing.
81 the ASsoclated Press.


NEW YORK, May How many
unemployed?
The two agencies making regular
estimates Of the number place it
around 100000, indicating that only
about one out of six persons Of work.
Ing age has no private gainful en-
ployment.
These agencies are the National
Industrial Conference Board, sup
ported chiefly by large corporations,
and the American Federation of
Labor.
Skeptics pointed out today, however,
that this is some five times the num-
Der Of jobless estimated for 1929, while
the Federal Reserve Board index OF
industrial activity for March equaled
the 1929 average
Employment in industry, they said,
as measured by the monthly index
OF the United States Bureau Of Labor
Statistics, is less than per cent
under 1929, and the conference board
estimates employment in agriculture
above 1929.
Public Airing Slated.
The controversy seems slated for a
public airing in the next few weeks
in Washington, in hearings by the
Senate Committee on Commerce on
the Maloney bill for a census of the
jobless.
Statisticians who arrive at the
100000 figure base their calculations
on the 1880 census, which showed
3,338,o0o unemployed in March Of
that year, and proceed TO make
adjustments based on the monthly
index figures of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics on Industrial Employment,
allowance for population growth and
miscellaneous scattered reports and
indicators.
Changes Are Measured.
From this 1880 base point, analysts
nrst measure changes that have oc-
CURED during the intervening years.
The Bureau Of Labor Statistics
gauges of employment in industry are,
therefore, drawn on TO arrive at an
estimate of the increase or decrease
in the number on pay rolls
This series. however, calculates var
iation in occupations covering less
than half of the total employment.
Shifts in agriculture, the professions,
independent hand trades garages. re-
pair shops and the like, fishing, for
estry and public service are either
roughly figured on the basis Of frae-
mentary data or carried at a constant
figure
While economists agree that reason~
able accuracy may result from esti-
mates based on roughly so per cent
fact and so per cent calculation Of
probability in the early stages. the
farther from the base year. 1890, it
Is carried the greater the possibility
of error
Having in this manner arrived at
a figure representing the number
working at given time, it is neces-
sary TO ascertain the employabls
population. Here again the investi-
gators ability to estimate is at a
premium, as there is no complete CEN
sus later than 1880. The 100000
odd believed to have grown into the
ranks of the labor force since that
time having been added to the total
working population at the earlier date,
those with jobs are deducted from
the potential workers to arrive at the
number unemployed.
Method Held Unreliable.
Some statisticians hold that adding
the increase in the labor force to the
available supply of workers auto
matically overestinates unemploy.
ment.
They point out that since the be.
ginning of the industrial age in
this country, the business machine has
automatically absorbed new workers
as they grew up. Since the bureaus
data, therefore. makes little allowance
for newly organized businesses. un-
employment might be placed too high,
these analysts say
An attempt is made to correct the
bureaus indices for this shortcoming
by adjusting the figures to agree with
the biennial census of industry
Several factors tend to throw esti-
mates out of whack One of the most
important is the number Of self-em-
ployed people who run roadside stands
or similar one-man businesses
Another consideration is the in
creased percentage of persons Of work.
ING aoe uyho ara in scho0I