Imperial Valley press., 1937-12-31
lConlinned From Page Onel

boosts. dividend extras. and gigan-
tic Christmas trade. Ny forecast
At that time was. 1887 will be he
first year Of real prosperity since
1929 The entire years gain
should average seven to eight per
cent above 1896"
1897 Year Of Prosperity
Prosperity did come. Business did
average 7 per cent above 1896. This
past August the Babsonchart stood
at per cent above normal, higher
than IL had been for seven years
But after Labor Day the squall
which had been brewing all year
suddenly struck. High taxes. politi-
cal muddling, labor agitation. and
thin stock markets created a tor
nado of distrust and fear. The re-
suit has been one of the Sharpest
business declines on record. The
Babsonchart is now l9 per cent
below normal.
The current gloom will continue
10 hurt business during the early
months of 1898. But while activity
below the first quarter of 1887. il
should not fall much below current
levels. During this discouraging Pc
riod the base for a resumption of
the upward trend will be laid. The
spring rally in 1898 will be much
stronger than seasonal.
Good 1888 Trend
BY next Fourth of July, business
should have recovered from a third
TO a half of its late 1887 loss. The
revival will pick up momentum
during the second half. How far
IL will 60, it is, of course .impos-
sihle to say now. Nevertheless, as
a long shot. it would not surprise
me if the 1897 peaks were equalled
before next ChristmaSl
Because of the poor first quar-
ter of the new year. the average
CT general business for 1888. how
ever, will be slightly under -
roughly 10 per cent below-the
average for 1887. The important
point next year is the trend. A
poor start tbut not much lower
than current levels), an imprOv-
ing second quarter, and then a
sharp upward surge during the
final four or five months is my
idea of the 1888 business pattern.
Business Needs Relief
In making these estimates L am
counting on cooperation from
WASHINGTON. A year ago my op-
timism for 1887 was tempered by
the labor issue. I said: IF this Is
sue uabor) is not handled properly,
business could receive a very rude
setback" Now I am tempering my
1888 optimism by saying that Con-
gress must cooperate with business
or this present slump could con-
tinue for some time.
Many of our current troubles
come from fear and distrust. They
are largely psychological. Congress
today must treat business as doc
tor should treat a neurotic patient.
Scolding, harsh diets, enemas, and
the like are out. A few sugar
coated pills in the garb OF kind
words and a complete rest from
new laws is the prescription which
Congress must write for business
Congress Will Help
/ am quite confident, too, mat
Doctor Congress will help his pa
tent. No one is quite so shrewd an
appraiser of public sentiment as
the average Congressman. Wnen
he has his "ears to the ground
he is as keen as a robin hopping
about a lawn listening for worms
The solons were home for severa!
months this Fall, getting then
constituents reaction TO reform
legislation. So with every Congress
man and every third Senator up
for reelection this coming Autumn
/ believe that business will be given
the psychological relief that II
needs from Capitol Hill.
The biggest aids could be tax
revision and a utility "armistlce"
The Undistributed Profits Tax Will
be thrown out in everything ex-
cept name. New tax measures will
be passed, easing up on capital
gains levies and perhaps cutting
down on the high income bracket
assessments. A lot of talk VIII be
heard about a general sales tax
but it will not be passed. Extend
ing the income tax into lower
brackets will be proposed, but kill
ed.
Spending to Continue
I look for a truce between the
Government and the utilities. More
farm control legislation will be
passed. continuing the huge federal