Imperial Valley press., 1937-12-31
BABSON PREDICTS BUSINESS TO
SEE UPTURN DURING NEW YEAR

| farm outlays. Wage and hour leg
islation may go on the statute book
but in milder form than original.
ly proposed The President will ge
only crumbs from his Government
reorganization proposal. Generally
/ speaking, the marital status of Mr.
Roosevelt and his big Democratic
Congress will reach the legal sep
aration stage-just short of Reno
divorce proceedings.
The increase in unemployment
relief and new pump -priming mes-
sures will keep public expenditure;
at high level Budget balancing
cannot now be hoped for until the
end of the l939-40 fiscal year al
the earliest. Hence, the trend OF
the past five years toward initiation
is no making headlines now, do not
conclude that it is not making
headway. Initiation is the biggest
factor i'm the long-pull business and
investment outlook today
Prices To Increase
Initiation is not simply a domes-
tic issue. 1t is a worldwide influ-
ence 1t is one of the reasons why
I look for some increase in prices
! IN 1888 The sharp drop in both
farm and industrial commodities
since August makes 1t easy to
forecast the price trend next year
Sensitive commodities should be-
/ gin their rise some weeks before
business. They are at. or close 10
their bottom now. But I doubt If
I the 1892 commodity price peaks
will be broken next year.
| In fact. next December an index
of 784 raw and finished materials
should average only around 5 per
cent above the current level. In
dustrial commodity prices will os
the strongest. Farm products prices
do not promise as much action
Leading the rise will be non-fer-
rous metals. steel scrap, and hides
The readjustment between supply
and demand is quicker in these
industrial materials than it is in
farm products But the later will
| move upward somewhat from pres
| ent quotations.
Farm Outlook Fair
1888 will see sharper control over
cotton, corn. and wheat acreage
Prices will end the new year well
above today's levels. Without a
crop failure. however, present car
ry-overs are so large that they
can prevent any wild boom in quo
| taticns. Moreover, l expect to see
q further drop in beef, hog, and
| lamb prices. Butter milk. eggs and
poultry will also be cheaper next
year. due to lower feed costs.
1t would be foolhardy to attempt
any fixed forecast OF farm income
Barring crop disasters. however, my
estimate is for total agricultural
receipts next year to drop 5 to II
per cent under the 1887 figures
| Profits are also going to average
below those for this past year. The
| goods which farmers must buy will
not be much cheaper than they
were in 1887, while farm prices
will actually average lower than
they have during the past twelve
months. Because of the above situ-
alton, farm land values will SHOW
little change for the year.
What About Wages
and Strikes?
Industrial workers, after getting
away to a poor start, should have
fair year. During the first few
months, unemployment will be Sc
rious. Hundreds of factories have
slowed down or closed completely.
There are probably million more
jobless since last Labor Day. But
the Unions are clinging to their
wage scales as desperately as an
antique collector to family heir
loom. Despite poor business in the
first quarter. I do not foresee any
material change in industrial wage
rates next year-certainly none on
the upside!
One of the features of 1888 will
be the sharp decline in labor's in
fluence. After a year of almost con-
| slant pickering and turmoil, work
ers will quiet down. The labor cycle
has passed its peak. Just as 1885,
saw the zenith of the high grade
bond market, so 1887 witnessed the
pinnacle of labor's power for thi'
cycle. The reaction of the public
and the current slump in SHsines!
have given the labor movement {
rude setback.
More Jobs in Fall
Employment will improve as 1885,
works along. but should average
less than in 1887. The reasons
First, business activity opens tht
year % per cent below last Janu
airy. Second. labor-saving machin'
cry is being installed everywhere
Third. the railroads will employ
less workers. Finally. merit rating
systems in state unemployment in
surance laws will mitigate agains
hiring temporary help. Hence, b!
next December, the number of
jobless should total about 6,0OO,O0'
against 6,500,000 now and 5,500,O0'
al the 1887 business peak.
Taken as a whole 1888 will no
be as good a year for statesmen
merchants, and advertising people
a., 1897. Things are pretty slow right
now and will continue poor int
1898. However, as the months tici
away, the resistance clouds SHOULD
blow off and by late next year th'
sellers market should be on th'