Evening star., 1937-01-24
NEW INDUSTRIES LOOM
TO TAKE UP JOB SLACK
Television Most Promising of Modern
Developments for Elimination
of Unemployment.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

7 MADE inquiry lately Of a scien-
tist about what new industries
are likely to appear shortly. I
= made the inquiry because I am
so confident that new industries will
develop and that they will use more
labor, provide more careers and bring
more enrichment to the average man
than Is now dreamed. My inquiry
was casual, not thorough, but found
some interesting facts about a new
development which is just on the hori-
zon. which, as current slang would
put it. is "rarin' to 60"
wished to refute the doleftl dogma
of many pessimists which says that
not all the people in America can
ever be employed again. The assump-
ton is held by many New Dealers;
it is corner stone of the New Deal
philosophy about economics and soci-
ETY. The same notion Is held by some
teachers in colleges. 1t creates an
atmosphere of defeatism which infectS
much of American youth, holds them
back from confidence and hope.
The same fallacy prevailed during
the depression Of the early '90s. Prac-
tically no one noticed that in the very
lowest year, 1894. there was seen in
Kokomo. Ind. "horSeless carriage"
the first in America, destined 70 be
the forerunner Of the four and half
millions that are now made in an
average year, the thirty-flve millions
that have been made in all. I imagine
that no one. almost literally no one,
had the imagination to foresee that
the horseless carriage would give rise
to a great industry-indeed, to several
great industries. if we include oil and
rubber and road building and filling
stations and garages. And If any
daring person predicted this I sup
pose the reflection of that earlier gen.
Grafton of the doleful was, What
pity-so many buggy makers and
hostlers and drivers will be thrown
out of work. How shall We absorb
the unemployed?" Yet many times
more persons are now given employ
ment by the automobile than the
horse ever employed.
Nickelodeons Appeared Same Year.
1t was during the same depression,
in the year 1893. that there appeared
at the Chicago World Fair some queer
little booths containing "nickelo-
deons." so named because, by putting
a nickel in a small slot, pressing your
eyes to a larger slot and turning a
crank. you could cause cylinder to
revolve. upon which were photographs
so arranged in sequence as to give the
effect of something in motion. That
was the beginning of what Is today
the motion picture industry.
And it was in 1901 that an eminent
scientist, DR.. Simon Newcomb, pro-
fessor of mathematics at Johns Hop
kins University. confidently assured the
world that man must remain upon the
ground: THE example of the bird
does not prove that man can fly. :. &.
Imagine the proud possessor of the air.
plane darting through the air at
speed Of several hundred feet per
second! It is the speed alone that
sustains him. How is he ever going
20 stop?"
Prof. Newcomb's confident negation
is preserved, for the eternal confound-
ing of skeptics, in McClure's Magazine
for September, 1901. A little over two
years later McClure's and many other
periodicals began to record the flight
of man, first achieved by two young
men named Wright. in December, 1908.
Practically always in the field Of in
vention. prediction. even the most
imaginative. is far short of the ulti-
mate achievement. Hardly any one
thought aviation could be the basis
of a considerable industry until after
the industry was actually here.
Even the comparatively young-any
one who is IS or more-have seen the
coming of another invention, its i'm
provement and spread, and the con-
siderable industry 1t has given rise to.
1t was about 1921 (during a postwar
depression, incidentally that the ra-
dio began to be seen in its early crude
form. / was myself one of those who
did not foresee how far it would go.
The first we had in the house was set
up by my son, a young boy. 1t was
a crystal set, had earphones, and I
thought of 1t as toy.
TeleviSion Is Advanced.
Rejecting upon my failure to real
ize how far the radio would 60 and
how fast. I have been interested to
learn about the present status of a
thing which has some analogy to the
radio. I discovered that television,
though no sets have yet been put on
sale in America, is father ahead in
development than the radio was in
its earphone stage. Television re-
ceiving sets could perfectly well be
in any home today-though they would
be expensive until the process is more
early perfected and until mass pro-
duction is more possible. They are
on sale in England. Since last Au-
gust there have been regular television
broadcasts from Alexandra Palace in
London three or four times a week.
The English receiving sets cost about
S40O each. In this country the tech
nicians who are developing television,
and the companies with which they
are associated. appear to have decided
to shortcut the crystal set" stage
of the radio and the one-cylinder
stage of the automobile. When tele-
vision sets are put on sale in America