Evening star., 1937-12-05
ECONOMIC HEALTH
OF EUROPE FAILING
What Improvement There Is
Comes From Arms
Competition.
By WILLIAM BIRD.

Competition.
BY WILLIAM BIRD.
PARIS, Dec. 4.-More serious as a
threat against peace than the most
spectacular international complica-
tions Is the fact that there is not
an important country in Europe whose
financial and economic condition Is
healthy There is not one, indeed,
whose situation Is improving or can
be honestly said to show any promise
of Improvement
Certain statistics may create the
impression that conditions are get
ting better. For example, the volume
OF business done shows a considerable
increase in most countries, but what
is left out of account Is the fact tha.
the increase in most cases reflects
nothing more than the depreciation
OF the currency. Actual production
OF goods-except war materials-has
increased very little, if at all. Con-
sumption, in spite of rising prices,
which usually favor business, is lag
ging.
Arms Have Spurred Trade.
1t is not going too far to say that,
but for the enormous government ex-
pendltureS on armaments all over
Europe, economic conditions would
be worse today than at the lowest
polnt-1932-of the world depression.
Armament appropriations, by creating
employment and demand for raw ma
terials. have created currents of trade
ana have established purchasing
power. 1t Is almost terrifying to think
what would have happened if the
Geneva Disarmament Conference had
succeeded in reaching an agreement
and If the world had actually begun
to limit armaments.
1t is equally disturbing to reflect
that there is limit, even in arma-
ments, and that time must come
when governments will begin curtail-
ing their national defense appropria-
lions. That time, many observers
believe, is now very near, as seems
10 be indicated by the slump in
what will happen on the day when
most OF the great nations saw. I'VE
now have about all the arms we can
possibly use, and henceforth our an
preparations for defense will be linn
lted to maintenance, replacements
ana keeping up to date? The ces-
eatlon, whether sudden or gradual. of
the orgy of spending must mean in
evltaoly that all prices will begin to
oecllne and that period of disas-
trous def1ation will begin.
Near Fill Of Misery.
Americans should reflect that
Europe cannot stand very much more
misery than it has got now. From
personal observation, should say that
france has about the highest standard
OF living among all the greater nations
OF the continent. There is relatively
little unemployment and very little
really adJect poverty. But the income
OF the average French family living
oy wages is about $50 month. Many
skilled laborers do not earn more than
tnat, and even public servants, who
are commonly thought of as a privi-
leged class. are in the great majority
paid less in month than the average
american white collar worker gets
in week.
such are the cold facts about this
relatively prosperous country. What
the conditions are in less favored parts
OF the continent may be surmised.
Now knock away the prop that is
supplied by the armaments expendi-
lures. 1t Is not hard to see that the
situation of the wage Garner. lust
barely tolerable today, will become
perilous.
What will the governments be able
70 do about it? Even with the sub
stantial relief they have been able to
get oy successive devaluations of cur
rency, none of them has been able to
balance its budget, and nowhere has
a responsible statesman so much as
proposed a plan for putting govern
ment on basis of solvency.
War Prosperity Promoter,
1t is small wonder that war talk
persists. 1t is not because ANYBODY
IN a responsible position wants war
But 1t Is fact that war has proved
In the past to be a great promoter of
prosperity. Millions of dollars worth
OF property is destroyed every day. and
must be replaced Business booms
wages rise, and everybody is i'm
mensely better of than in peace time
everybody, that is, except those in
the trenches.
mus, even If there were no such
tnlng as territorial ambitions. as
racial hatreds, as lust for power as
international rivalry, the war danger
would still be acute, simply because
the best brains that the world has vet
raised to power have been unable to
figure out a way of making peace
profitable. And the same observation
applies to the countries that have
fallen into the grip of dictators. as
well as to those that have chosen their
leaders through the ballot box.
Many will recall that in 1914 emil
nent flnanciers and economists said
war-or at least long war-was i'm
possible because the nations could not
nnance it. Today it is bitterly true
that peace is more difficult to finance
than war, and that the maintenance
OF peace may prove to be luxury be-
yond the worlds means