Evening star., 1937-10-31
ENGLAND FAVORS
JAPAN MEDIATION
Persuasion of Toxic Will Be
Britain's Goal at
Brussels.
Rr SIR ARTHUR MILLERT.

1oN1ON, oCJ. ou NINAAN.1hst'
Persuasion rather than coercion as
means of stopping the Far Eastern
War will be the British policy at the
Nine-Power Conference at Brussels.
Japan's piratical brutality will
probably send some countries these
in mood to demand economic sane
tions, but it is unlikely that the in
structions given Anthony Eden, the
British foreign secretary, will allow
him to encourage such demands. 1t
is expected, on the contrary, that the
British delegation will suggest media
ton as the most feasible line of ap-
proach.
This is not because there is any
disposition here to underestimate the
gravity of the issues at stake in China.
Still less is it due to sympathy with
Japan. Pro-Japanese feeling here,
which impeded Anglo-American CO.
operation during the Manchurian
crisis, has been killed. partly by
Japan's destruction of the Washing
ton treaty for limitation of naval
armaments, and, partly, by her pres
ent action.
European Situation Rules.
The British attitude is dictated by
the European situation. 1t has never
varied since the japanese started their
offensive last summer. It is based
on the belief that to be overextended
is as bad for nation in time of dip
lomatic stress as it is for an individual
in time of financial stress. The great
danger OF the moment Is outbreak of
another world war in Europe. 1t is.
therefore, Britain's duty to herself
and to the world to concentrate upon
prevention of war in Europe, and it
is feared that diplomacy unsupported
by effective force in these days of
lawless aggression is useless.
Edens supporters explain his fall
ure over Ethiopian sanctions, and. to
some extent, the failure of Spanish
non-intervention. by arguing that it
would have been different had the
British armament program reached
In 1885 and 1886 the stage at which
1t will be in 1888. Now that progress
is being made with that program
they feel that, If Britain is to be
factor for peace in Europe, she must
keep the results of her armament at
home.
In the same way, it is believed here
that any effort to coerce Japan by
sanctions or other means would be
worse than futile unless backed by
force. British experts who have been
preparing plans for the conference
made an exhaustive study of the
feasibility of economic pressure upon
Japan. Obviously, Japan is very vul-
nerable in that respect. Oil sanctions
would probably stop her fighting in
China as successfully as it is now
known they would have stopped Italy
in Ethiopia. But it is one thing to
propose sanctions and another thing
to apply them.
Weaker Countries PeriIed.
The harder sanctions would hit
Japan, the more likely would Japan
be to hit back. Even If she did not
openly attack British and American
interests in the Far East, there would
be the question of the security Of
weaker countries which would be in
volved in sanctions. Ehe Japanese
might. for instance, try to seize the
oil and rubber producing possessions
of Holland in Asiatic waters. Japan
has the third biggest navy in the
world. Are the United States and
Great Britain, owners of the two big
gest navies. prepared to fight to
protect Holland and perhaps other
small countries, even if they were
not called upon to use force to make
q blockade effective or to protect their
own interests?
That, as London sees it, is what
the question of economic pressure
comes down to. Are the United States
and Britain prepared to fight what
might be a serious war for the in
tegrity of China? The British an
swer, if only for the reasons mentioned
above, is in the negative.
London would, of course. be pre-
pared to support the United States in
a coercive policy if Washington under
took to bear the brunt of it. But
that again is not believed to be prac-
tical politics. 1t is not believed Amer
lean public opinion is any more ready
than British public opinion to fight to
save China from the Japanese.
Conference May Be Premature.
Hence the stress which is being laid
here upon the. probability that the
Brussels conference will confine itself
to an effort at mediation. Not that
there is much confidence that even
this more modest goal will be reached
for the present. 1t is feared that
the League of Nations in suggesting
the conference at this early date, may
be found to have acted prematurely
Sooner or later the japanese may
be ready for mediation. In spite of
their recent successes they are still
far from overthrowing the Chang
Kai-shek government, and they are
infinitely further from domination of
China, which is considered here to be
the ultimate aim of the militarists
who control their policy.
Nor is there any certainty that
China is ready for compromise. Ac-
cording to information reaching Lon
don, japanese pressure is consolidat-
ing the country to remarkable de-
gree. Even the red" areas in the
center are said to be concentrating,
not on Communism, but on co-opera-
ton With Marking against the in
vaders. The Brussels meeting has not
In fact so far aroused high expecta-
tions in London.
(Copyright, 1887, by the North American
Newspaper Alliance Inc)