Imperial Valley press., 1937-12-31

way back. Then advertising Image
will have another surge and COM
mission checks will again bulge
The 1887 national income-esti-
mated at 0.OO0.OOO-will not
quite be caualled despite 1885
strong second-half sprint.
Retail Sales, Living Costs Lower
The national income roughly de-
ternnines the volume of retail trade.
Hence. 1 expect retail sales will
average less in 1888 than 1887.
They will be slow during the early
months: but they will follow the
strong business uptrend as the
monthly pages are torn off the
1888 calendar. BY next Christmas
volume of retail trade will have a
good chance of breaking all rec
ords since 1929. Shading of price
tags between New Years and East
er will help to boost sales.
This drop in retail prices is good
news for the householder. 1t looks
now as though the cost of living
which has been rising steadily since
1888 will give ground early i'm 1888.
The average for the New Year,
however, should show only a minor
drop as food prices may touch off
a new rise along ABOUT Labor Day.
From current levels, your clothing
will register a modest decline by
next Christmas; food should be
up slightly; coal will show little
change; fuel oil will be firm to
lower; and rents will be unchanged
Why Building Slows Down
One of the major cogs in this
current business recession has been
the sharp letdown in construction.
Building material concerns and
building workers both showed up
costs out of all reason during 1885,
81. A house which cost $4,000 to
build in December. 1895 would cost
nearly $500 today. Naturally, de-
mand for new homes has slowed up
in face of this unWarranted boost
ing of costs. Home building is
down 20 per cent from the 1897
peak, is below a year ago, and
is still falling.
My though is that it will con-
tinue to drop unth after business
has begun to retrace its steps late
next Spring Sometime next year,
however, home building should
again be humming along. The 1887
peak may even be topped so that
the average volume of new homes
for the New Year could be above
last years level. The new govern
housing program could also give
the industry a big lift. 1t is even
possible that the home building
boom which I really expected to
develop in 1897 will start late this
coming year.
Real Estate More Active
Private non-residential construc-
ton. on the other hand, will be
lower. now see little incentive
for new plant expansion next year
Public utility work. however, may
take up the slack caused by PWA
pulling in its horns on public works
projects. A decline in building costs
should help volume in the early
months; but before 1888 closes
costs will reverse their field again
and be on their way to new peak
These higher costs will help real
estate values. New home prices
which are now being shaded here
and there. will strengthen. How
ever, l hold little vacant property
and modest -laid-out modern
homes are among the best invest
ments a person can make today
For that reason I feel that 1885
is going to be good year fol
realty men-with a slow start anc
an active finish
Stocks to Rally
This same rough plan should
also hold for stocks expect to set
the markets fly the revival sigma
before 1888 is too old. 1t woulc
be silly to predict they will, or viii
not, break through their 1897 March
peak. 1t makes little difference
whether they do or do not, for gOOt
stocks at current prices, i'm my
opinion. offer excellent profit op'
p0rtunities.
Furthermore, while selection vii
again be important, diversificatior
will be the vital point in 1888. Some
groups will, of course, do better
than others. If I had TO guess the
outstanding industries of 1898 from
a market standpoint, l would pici
the Metals, oils, building materials
aircraft makers. steels. chemicals