Evening star., 1937-09-04
NEED Of 100000
NEW HOMES SEEN
Researcher Estimates De-
mand in Next IS Years
Due to Population Gain.

Population changes that may be ex-
pected in the United States, and their
effect on housing demand and real
estate values, are discussed in the cur
rent issue OF the Journal Of Real Es-
tate Management by Bla inc A. Davis
research assistant to the chief -ap-
praiser. Equitable Life Assurance So
ciety, New York.
Basing his figures upon the outlook
Of net immigration, a declining birth
rate and rising death rate, Davis.
special lecturer on population trends
In the recent courses in real estate
appraisals given by the American In
stitute of Real Estate Appraisers in
cooperation with the School OF Busi-
ness Of Columbia University estimates
. population for the United States in
ls45 Of approximately l3444o, 900,
which represents an increase within
the next nine years Of 60ll 900, an
increase from the present time Of 4.68
per cent. This would anticipate the
population of the United States reach
Ing maximum early in the SOS.
SSSN C,VVU.VUV K1UfnSS ANcCu6u.
Though the total population Of
the country is rapidly approaching A
zenith. about 100000 new houses
will be needed during the next Is
years to house the additional families
created by the persons born before
the peak in births was reached in
1921 to 1924, who will be marrying
and needing homes during this period, ~
he estimates.
The uncertain element in the popu-
lation prospect is not 50 much the
total number OF people in the Nation,
but their reSidence-whether increas-
ingly rural or urban Davis points out.
He SAYS: There is nothing in the
general economic situation to indicate
that the trend Of population toward
urban areas has been, or soon might
be. permanently checked"
One Of the most significant changes
which has taken place in this country
Is the increase in the relative i'm
portance of cities The first Federal
census in 1890 reported only six cities
having population of 5000 or more,
containing in the aggregate 33 per
cent of the total population in the
country. In 1880 there were 209
incorporated cities having a popula-
ton OF 5000 or more, and their ag-
gregate population represented 49.l
per cent Of the total. Urban popu-
lation, including the metropolitan
areas. is estimated by the Equita ble's
study to amount to 80, 36l 900 in 1910.
an increase of 81 per cent over the
1880 population of 76.ls9oOo, with a
further increase to 83033.00 by 1915.
Notes Percentage Decline.
1T will be noted that during the
five years from 1920 to 1925 the urban
population increased l3 per cent: in
the five years from 1925 to 1880. 10
per cent in the five years from 1890
to 1885, 20 per cent; in the five years
from 1895 TO 1910. per cent. and
in the five years from 1910 to l945,
! per cent. The steadily declining
rate OF increase noticeable over this
25-year period indicates clearly that
the urban population OF the country
Is likewise rapidly approaching point
OF relative stability, though. due to
internal migration, it is quite likely
that the urban population will con-
tinue to increase for some time after
the total population OF the country
has reached an optimum."
Some interesting observations:
Within the next few years the
declining birth rate will, to some ex-
tent, be Offset by the increase in the
number of women of child bearing
age. The greatest number of births
in the country occurred during the
years 1921 to 1924; the actual number
has steadily declined since that date.
For period of about Is years after
the peak in the number OF births, the
number OF women of ages during
which most children are born will
continue to increase.
Until 1921 to 1924 the increasing
number Of potential mothers more
than counter balanced the declining
birth rate in yielding an ever-increas-
ting number of children After about
1850 there will be declining number
Of potential mothers. A declining
number Of such women will supple
ment the decline in births, both fac
tors working in the same direction
to reduce even more rapidly the num-
Der OF children born.
"A stabilizing of the population
means that it will consist of fewer
young people and more old people
Between 1920 and 1880 the number
OF people over 65 -lcreased "a per
cent"