Evening star., 1937-04-18
RY PERTINAX,

BY PERTINAX.
URING the last two months
more optimistic feeling has
become noticeable in Paris
- and in London about the
prospects of European peace. That
change Of outlook can be assigned to
the following causes:
In the first place, the generals OF
the German Reichswehr-the men
whose business 1t Is to make Germany
ready to sustain, If necessary, pro-
tracted war-have been bitterly dis
appointed by many developments IN
Spain. There, the blatant new weapons
supplied to German troops have been
put to the test, and they have not
proved equal to the very high expecta-
tions OF the Berlin general staff.
For instance, it has turned out that
the tanks were too lightly protected
and that, despite their speed, the
enemy artille.y y had no great difficulty
in destroying them. Several types OF
airplanes have been found deficient.
Moreover, transplantation to a
foreign land has in many cases proved
too much for the morale of the Nazi
fighters; between 400 and 500 Of them,
If not more, are reported to have de-
serted to the "Marxist" camp.
Then, the British rearmament, the
vote Of Parliament whereby the cab
met has been authorized to borrow
f1,500000,000 in the course of the
next five years for the purpose OF
national defense in addition to the
sums that will be raised by taxation)
have deeply impressed all European
governments, particularly the Hitlerian
and the Fascist rulers They have
realized at last that they would have
to reckon with the British military
power. that England could not any
longer be looked upon as a helpless
country trying to conceal her inward
weakness behind the screen Of feeble
and shifty policy of arbitration.
Franco British Defensive.
The Franco-British defensive al
lance revived by the British letter
forwarded, on April l, 1886. to the
French government and which has
already led to a closer contact be-
tween the French and British general
STATS (although 1t will be officially
enforced only when the Locarno ne
gotiations have finally failed) has
told to the same effect.
Among the other factors which
convince many that German power
will not have everything its own way
and that, in the long run, it will have
either to come to terms or to fight
desperate battle, we must single out
for special reference the hardening
of French and British policy and the
tripartite monetary agreement, which
sometimes is interpreted as a sign
that the United States of America
might not, eventually, witness with
complete indifference struggle of the
totalitarian states against the British
and French democracies.
Emphasis must be laid upon the
courage shown by Leon Blum. Last
January he instructed the ministry
of foreign affairs to make it clear to
the German Ambassador in Paris that
in the Spanish zone of Morocco,
Frances treaty rights would if neces-
sary be upheld by force. And he had
the Hitlerian government discreetly
warned that an aggression upon Czech
oslovakia would not be passively
tolerated as the violent suppression
Of the demilitarized zone in the
Rhineland was tolerated last year,
As to British policy, it's new tone
can be judged from the fact that
Foreign Minister Eden. while he is
as reluctant as ever to add to the
existing commitments of the British
Empire in Europe, takes every op-
portunity to let it be known that such
an attitude of relative aloofness should
not be construed as an indication that
England would disinterest herself
from a conflict arising in the middle
of the continent. The resistance to
German designs shown just recently
in Vienna by the Austrian chancellor,
Kurt Won Schuschnigg. singlehandedly,
and deprived of Italian support, makes
it sufficiently plain that, all through
the continent, more hopeful spirit
Is abroad. And there are other symp-
toms Of it that could be cited.
Belgium's New Policy.
But at this very moment Belgium
seems to have made up her mind to
part company with the Western pow
ers. Were the new policy that was
outlined in the royal speech of Octo-
ber IA, 1886, to be unfinchingly car
ried out and pushed to its logical
conclusion, the French and British
governments would find themselves
sadly handicapped in the. great effort
they are making for the preservation
Of peace. The so-called system OF
collective security would be unneces-
sarily hampered and the cause OF
peace on that account would lose
whatever it may have gained else
where. For French and British
diplomacy, nowadays, there is no
more urgent task to be performed
than to solve the problem raised by
Belgium's attitude.
What are the requests put forward
by the Brussels government? And
what might their consequences be?
To start with, the Belgian govern
ment does not agree to be a guarantor
of French and British territorial do
mains any longer. The Rhineland pact
OF Locarno is still valid as far as the
obligations of France, Great Britain
and Belgium are concerned-Germany
excluded herself from it on March 7,
1886, and Italy, in practice, followed