Evening star., 1937-10-17
by THE RIGHT HONORABLE LORD
STRABOLGI.

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4 war Is absent in the Sino-
I Japanese dispute. The mod
~ ern Fascist" technique OF
waging war in everything except name
Is being pursued.
Whatever their original plans, the
Japanese are now committed to q
major campaign on two main fronts,
In the north. In order to conquer
and subdue the four provinces around
Peiping. and in the center, around
Shanghai
The main military objective Of the
Japanese Is the northern campaign.
1t Is probable that the central CAM
paign. like the blockade declared on
the Chinese coasts and the air raids
on the southern ports of Annoy and
Canton, Is to injure the economic
resources Of China and thus weaken
the resistance of the General Gov
ernment at Marking. BY alarming
and disturbing as large an area OF
China as possible trade Is injured
and the position Of Marking Central
Government Is shaken.
The central campaign started from
and around Shanghai may develop
into q large-scale expedition against
Nanking itself. This may not have
been In the minds OF the Japanese
leaders when they started. Military
campaigns have q habit of growing
from comparatively small beginnings.
What we do know Is that the Japanese
have involved themselves In a great
war. comparable already to their war
in Manchuria against Russia at the
beginning OF this century.
How far can the Japanese succeed?
They must completely subdue
Chinese resistance this time, or face
general failure to carry through the
imperialistic plans In Asia which they
have pursued since 1894. The rea-
son that the japanese have struck now
Is not only because of the distractions
Of Europe and the United States Of
America, but also because the unity
Of China was making progress and
the authority Of the General Govern
Long and Short View.
It Is necessary to take here both
the short view and the long view.
The Japenese may succeed In achiev-
ing large-scale military victories In
the north before the severe winter
sets in to stop operations. Japanese
economic and financial weakness
Of which more presently-may prove
q serious hindrance. The unexpected
strength Of the Chinese resistance,
especially in the center, may also
have unforeseen results, especially as
prestige, or face" as the Chinese
call it. counts for so much in Asia.
Nevertheless, in the short view,
thanks to their superior military
organization and especially their bet
ter staff work and their munitions
superiority, the Japanese should win.
Indeed, military experts would almost
give the opinion that
they will win; and this brings US to
the long view-namely, whether they
will be able to hold China, or . great
portion Of 1t, once they have con-
quered it.
To deal with this latter point first:
spent three years in China rs
naval ofiicer and have visited . great
many parts of that vast and fascinat-
ing country. I have often talked
with educated Chinese Of the marvel
ous history of their race.
Again and again China has been
conquered, usually by invaders from
the center and north Of Asia. 1t was
to keep them out that the Great Wall
was built as long ago as 2l4 BIC.
The wall is still intact for hundreds
of miles, and it is only here and there
that the granite and brick used in its
construction have crumbled and fallen
away.
There are no conquerors left.
Slowly, inexorably. they were squeezed
out or absorbed. Intermarriage
helped
1t is sometimes argued by modern
Chinese, educated in America or Eu-
rope, that these arguments do not
apply today. They reason that the
Tartar and Manchu invaders were
rough plainsmen from the steppes who
took their culture from the Chinese
Today, they say. the Japanese are q
highly industrialized people who have
absorbed a different culture from Eu-
rope, and that they will have more
powers of resistance. But the older
generation of Chinese will not accept
this argument; and 1 believe they are
right.
Japan Lacks Finances.
To hold China economically great
capital expenditure on machinery.
transport and the like Is required
Japan has not. and Is not likely to
have for many years to come. the
necessary financial resources. She has
done little to develop Manchuria eco
nomically. though she has been in
since the end of the o-Japanese
War
II the Japanese could colonize, as the
European races colonized the North
American Continent, they would accu-
mulate capital. But this is just what
they cannot do in China. The coun-
try is too crowded. the Chinese are too
tenacious. No farmers can live in
competition with the Chinese, not even
Japanese farmers. The Japanese
standard of living is higher than the
Chinese, but their industrial output is
lower. As agriculturists, despite their
antiquated methods, the Chinese are
still the best in the world.
The Japanese can exist in China,
and in their other dependencies on
the mainland of Asia, as petty off,
cials and merchants; but they will
remain an excrescence on the face of
China.
China UncOnquerable.
I still believe. taking the long view,
that China is unconquerable. But the
more immediate problem is what will
happen now. The younger generation
Of Chinese. to whom I have already
referred, are thinking Of the present
and are not content to live as eco