Evening star., 1937-08-15
BRIGHT OUTLOOK
PERSISTS DESPITE
TRADE S[ACKEN|NG
Lag Contrasts With Surge
From Bonus Spending
in 1886 Period.
RESUMPTION OF RISE
LIKELY LATER IN YEAR
Bumper Crops and Need for Huge
Industrial Expansion Bolster
Hopes of Observers.
BY THOMAS E. FLANAGAN,
Associated Press Financial Writer.

D1 lHONAS L. fLANAGAN,
Associated Press Financial Writer
In the grip of the August dog days,
the Nations business moved at a rather
lazy pace last week.
The recovery march, slowed down
perceptibly in recent weeks. had diff.
Guilty getting out of the Summer rut.
This did not cause much concern
among business analysts about the out.
look for the rest of the year, however,
considering the traditional tendency
OF trade and industry to loaf through
Midsummer.
A contrast with the counter-seasonal
surge Of business last Summer. when
Federal bonus money and industrial
revival helped upset the tradition of
seasonal letdoWn, was emphasized by
latest trade figures. Slackening of the
recovery march was evident in textile,
building, machine tool and other lines.
But hope ran high for resumption
Of the main movement later in tn.
year under impetus of returning farm
prosperity and a slowly reaWakening
urge through Industry to spend for
plant Improvements and expansion.
Big crops, while not an unmixed bless.
Ing for the farmer since prices tended
TO suffer, promised to make business
history in the second half of 1887.
Farm Income Jumps.
Despite lower prices, it was figured
IN business circles spending power of
the farmer after completion of the har-
vest would be the highest since 1929
and perhaps since early war DAYS. The
whole Nation. moreover, stood to bene-
mt from handling OF rich crops of
wheat, cotton, corn, oats, fruits and
vegetables.
Meanwhile the trade stream ap-
peared sluggish in contrast with its
brisk flow year ago.
Hot weather in many sections of
the country slowed down the move
ment OF retail trade during the past
week. said the United States De-
partment of Commerce in its sum-
mary of reports from 36 key cities.
Trade in many reporting cities ran
well behind the same period last year.
In wholesale markets, Fall goods
were moving well and merchants con-
tlnued to declare themselves as opti-
mistic over the coming season.
Agricultural areas generally re-
ported good crops and satisfactory
prices
TWO recent stalWarts in the recov-
cry drive-home building and textile
ma an,lf ctrrir7p 7p-tbro,te,ir- ~. :
push as they eased further. The As
soclated Press index of industrial ac-
tivlty showed only a small recession
at 1924, based on 1929-30 business as
100. The figure compared with l02
the preceding week and e5l a yea:
ago.
Auto Upturn Expected.
But 1t relied on steep rebound III
automobile production to offset losses
IN steel, cotton manufacturing. resi-
dental building and railroad carload
lngs, allowing for seasonal variations
Only electric power output. on the
basis Of latest figures, supported mo-
tor production on the upside.
Mainly the result of resumption of
assemblies by Ford, automobile out
put jumped to 1o3.25o units from 7s-
1856 the preceding week and $500 in
the 1886 week, as compiled by Wards
automotive reports. Railroad carload
lngs were moderately higher at 1885,
497 and held large lead over last
year. The traffic gain was less than
usual for the season.
Steel production for the week also
stepped back little at 84.6 per cent
OF capacity after rally from June
and early July decline On a longer
perspective gains of the key steel in
dustry were high lighted by the United
States Steel Corps July report on
shipments. making the best showing
Tor the month since 1929.
Against tangible evidence of Sum-
n1er slackening. Wall Street weighed
prospects for an Autumn upturn. A
to construe the outlook
optimistically was seen in a weekend
advance in stocks But speculative ac-
tlVity, except in some commodity mar
kets, remained small.
Enhancing AZ Low kDO.
New corporate financing also re-
manned at low ebb for the year, al
though hints of more activity came
IN reports Bethlehem Steel was plan
ming a s4000o,0OO financing opera
ton and a growing list of corporations
projecting plant expenditures.
Government estimates of bumper
grain and cotton crops, together with
the reported administration agree
ment to resume Federal loans on cot
ton, contingent on congressional CO.
operation in working out crop con-
trolls, turned the spotlight on the
change in the farmers fortunes.
After the meager drought years, 1t
Nature had raised the horn
If plenty over many sections. Oppor-
une rains in the Middle West and
parts Of the South diminished threat
# late damage to growing corn
On the other hand. trade prospects
we're obscured somewhat by additional
announcements of higher prices for
goods, including auto
mobiles and radios, and the retreat
n farm prices before upward re-
risions of harvest figures. The ques-
ion rose whether the return from
arger farm marketings would out
balance lower prices for major crops
md higher prices for manufactured
,oods In Autumn trade.
District Reports Given
ACKNOWLEDGMENT and retail trade
generally well maintained Baltimore bank
lR cleArlnQS 10 yAA
With last year. Checks cashed UP nearly
l rer cent Washington department
tore sales we're down nearly 10 per cent
rom preceding week and 3.5 per cent
nder 1885,
DA1IAs--Cotton and corn prospects
TIRED optimism. Retail sales improved
ver preceding week. Merchants look for
usy Autumn. Extremely hot, dry weather
1T cotton. Bank clearings up more than
4,