Evening star., 1937-03-28
BY MARK SULLIVAN.


/ imitation. Always wrote about
L 1t with q cautious and apollo
getic tentativeness, with the feeling
I expressed, for example, on November
18, 1894:
There is danger in saying, in
broadcast way. that imitation is COM
ing, because the spreading Of this
expectation tends to bring about the
thing expected. Yet it may work the
other way, too. Discussion Of infia-
ton, widespread awareness Of the
hardships that would accompany
really serious inflation-this may have
the effect of averting 1t. The whole
situation raises q delicate problem Of
duty and prudence. No one can be
absolutely positive imitation will come.
No one can be absolutely positive 1t
will not come"
Even when so distinguished an
authority as Dr. E. w. Kemmerer, Of
Princeton, testified before a Senate
committee that America was ION the
brink Of volcano" was still moved
to say on May 10, 1885, yet there
are forces and conditions which tend
to avert imitation"
But the prediction Of imitation, or
the warning it may come, is now so
general and comes from such high
sources that we can say, at the least,
that the danger is serious and wide
ly recognized. The warning now
comes from administration authori-
ties, including the head Of the Fed
eral Reserve System, Mr.. Mariner
Eccles. 1t still remains true that in
flation in the extreme form may yet
be averted. Mr.. Eccles's Uarnino was
plea for measures and practices
that would repel the danger.
The fear OF imitation, or expecta-
ton Of it, has from the beginning
taken the form OF a series of waves.
The first wave occurred at the time
President Roosevelt took his early
steps about currency, in the Spring
OF 1888. After each wave of appre-
hension there has been a period in
which the subject disappeared from
public discussion. tAlthough at all
times many of the shrewd and So
phisticated have maintained their
must be an inevitable outcome of the
administration policies.
The most recent wave of expecta-
ton has expressed itself in several
ways, one being a furry Of selling
OF Government bonds. Let it be
said at once that nobody sells Gov
ernment bonds because of any fear
that the Government will not pay
the principal and interest Every
body understands that for every
81 900 bond the Government will pay
1000 when the bond comes due, ana
pay interest regularly in the mean
time. The reason some people sell
Government bonds is fear that the
$1,000, when they get it from the
Government, may have materially
smaller purchasing power than it
now has.
President Roosevelt himself seems
now to share the fear of imitation,
though he does not use that word.
In one of his radio addresses advo-
eating his Supreme Court proposal
Mr.. Roosevelt said cryptic SEN
tence from which many inferred that
the fear OF imitation has reached him.
Mr. Roosevelt said, The dangers of
1929 are again becoming possible, not
this week or month, perhaps, but
within year or two"
If, as Mr.. Roosevelt seems TO
think, danger of some form OF eco
nomic calamity is ahead. it will not
take the form Of the 1929 disaster.
1t will hardly take the form Of a
drastic drop in prices, except per-
haps for a very brief period II is
much more likely, indeed almost
certain Gf it comes at alb, to take
the form of spectacularly rising prices,
the form Of imitation.
''Infation"-to the Average Man
I am writing for the understand
ing of the average man. It has al
ways seemed to nl@ pity that this
average man. who has most to lose
through imitation, should be the last
to have warning OF it. The sophlstl-
Gated, keeping a watchful eye on the
causes that make imitation, have early
warning. They are able, in some
degree, to guard against it-though
none, except very small number OF
extremely agile spectators, can hope
to save themselves from a really
drastic imitation if it comes.
While a serious imitation would
harm practically everybody and ruin
many, its most heart-rending devasta-
ton would be upon persons with fixed
salaries, who would see the cost Of liv-
ing skyrocket, while their salaries
would remain the same or lag much
behind; wage earners whose wages
would lag far behind the rising cost
Of living persons who live on the
proceeds of life insurance policies, the
income of which would remain fixed
while the cost of living goes upward;
persons whose small fortunes consist
of savings in savings banks; persons
whose income depends upon the in
terest on bonds, such as teachers in
colleges and employees of other en-
dowed institutions.
The average man seeking tn Under