The Washington times., 1937-10-29
Paul MallOn---
NeWS Behind
The NeWS

than just the STOCK market.
Factory pay rolls are declin-
ing. So. are farm income and
nonagricultural income. Whole
sale prices are slipping and the
cost of living is likewise begin
ming to follow suit.
That means we are entering
upon a period of genera read
justment of costs. prices, income
and all business. AS seen
through the eyes Of economists
from this spot, the period OF re-
adjustment is apt to last any
where from six to nine months.
They do not figure it will go
down very far, for this reason:
The farmers bumper crop vii
certainly keep his purchasing
power relatively high for the
rest of the year, despite farm
prices. Nonagricultural income
is not so certain; dividend in
come will surely be off sharply,
but wages are likely to hold up.
If this situation continues,
prices may be expected to de-
cline to an unknown point where
income will start swapping up
demand again, and the country
should level off into another
stable period on that basis.
In other words, while period
of lower adjustment seems to be
inevitably ahead, there is no
reason to expect it will be any.
thing like the last one.
THE considerations which lead
l. to this authoritative guess
may be highlighted this way:
NON AGRICULTURAL IN.
COME-A decline developed in
this line last month for the first
time in two years. 1t repre-
sented a break all around. Pay
rolls and dividends were both
off but the pay roll decline indi-
Gated only less time worked and
was not accompanied by wage
decreases. Dividends can hardly
hold in view of labor costs and
taxes in the face of diminishing
receipts. Thus the luxury trade
seems likely to be affected, in
cluding automobile.
CASH FARM INCOME-Heav-
ier marketings of the big crops
have forced prices down from
87.3 to 80, or about 8 per cent.
These figures are comprehen-
sive (grains, livestock, etc.,.
At the same time department
store sales and other sales have
held up remarkably well and
the outlook still favors a good
retail Christmas. OF course no
one knows anything about next
year.
WHOLESALE PRICES-A cut
in finished goods prices has
started and is likely to continue
to the point of absorbing de-
mand. Labor costs and taxes
should prevent it from going
far or fast. Raw materials and
semi-finished goods started off
last April and recently had a
sharp break.
COST OF LIVING-The rise
Of this factor is certainly over,
for the present. Housewives
will be glad to hear beef prices
are due for a decline shortly.
INDUSTRIALPRODUCTION-
Steel recession caused the big
drop of the past two months.
It has fallen from IA per cent
capacity to so per cent. There
is usually decline of a point
or two at this season, but moth
ing like what happened. Cot
ton mill activity has declined,
although it usually increases at
this time. Autos are doing well,
so far, and the other lines are
moving generally in seasonal di-
rections.
TODAY'S 1910 Presidential
= improbability - John L.
Lewis, age 81, the labor tycoon
who promoted CIO and sit
down strikes; his experience has
been limited to legislative
agent and official for his coal
mine and other unions; but his
CIO might come under the head
Of big business experience.
Politicos rate his chances
thus: "t .
He could not get the Demo
cratic nomination. even If Roose-
velt wanCed him and Roosevelt
doesn't, Essentially he has only
his CIO votes and some indef-
mite political alliances like that