The Washington times., 1937-01-06
j. :. BUSINESS
STR|DES0N TO
. PROSPERITY
BY LESLIE GOULD


NEW YORK, Jan. 6 G.N.S0,
After six long years Of depression
business in 1886 returned to near
prosperous levels, getting once
again above the theoretical normal
line of activity.
General business recovered to
levels comparable with early 1880
and a few individual lines have re-
traced all the downward steps
since 1929.
Only one great field of endeavor
the socalled heavy industries
has failed to reach normal levels,
but after tagging behind the gen.
eral recovery this field, too, is at
last experiencing revival that
promiSeS next year to restore 1t to
prosperity.
Labor Trouble
So the outlook for 1887 is for
all.around prosperity. There is,
however, one major cloud on the
business horizon-outside of the
always present threat Of war in
Europe or the Far East-that IS
labor trouble. This has yet to
upset a major cyclical recovery
which is what the present up
turn is.
There has already been some
serious preliminary skirmishes on
the labor front, but how grave
this becomes in the new year will
depend on the Washington Ad-
ministration attitude and that OF
business management. The right
kind of cooperation between the
two could minimize this threat to
continued recovery.
Events Abroad
The expansion last year came
In the face of an important ma
tional election at home. and such
disturbing events abroad as the
Italian-Ethiopian war, the series
of crises in France, the saber rat
ting in Germany, the bloody civil
war in Spain with its threat to en-
gulf all of Europe. and lastly the
abdication of the King of England
for the love of a tWice-divorced
American woman.
None of these has been able to
stem the rising tide Of business.
The recovery has just taken these
developments in its stride, al
though these events have been tenn
porarily upsetting to securities.
It proves the contention eX-
pressed here some years ago and
repeated in the last two annual
revieWS-that major depreSSionS
and business recoveries can be re.
tarded or speeded by governments
or powerful individuals, but they
cannot be arreSted-be the spiral
upward or downward. 1t was
proved in 1929 and time and again
until July, 1882, when the bottom
of the depression was reached, and
again in the events of the succeed
ing years.
Pattern of the PharOahS
And curiously these depressions
and recoveries seem to follow the
pattern laid down so many years
ago in the days of the Pharoahs
of Egypt and Joseph. where there
came the seven years of plenty
followed by the seven lean years.
The pace for the current recov-
cry has been set by the automo-
bile industry, which also led the
way in the great boom that cul-
minated in the 1929 smash. Auto
mobile production last year ap-
proximated 100000 cars, the best
IL months period since 1929 and
almost equal to 1925 record.
Outstanding were the records of
Chrysler, General Motors and
Packard. Chrysler, Motors and
Ford. as usual, have accounted for
the lions share of the business,
but Packard has made a great
comeback.
Boom Is On
Another excellent record was
by the electric power industry in
the face of tremendous handicapS
both real and imaginary. New
all time records in consumption
of electricity have been hung up,
with weekly sale of power getting
above the two billion kiloWatt
hour mark.
This year a tremendous amount
Of money has been pumped into
circulation, what with the two bill.
lions paid out to the soldiers, not
to mention the billions spent by
the Government in the name of
relief and public improvements,
the hundreds Of millions in extra,
increased and special dividends
and the pay rolls fattened by
longer-or rather nearer-normal
working hours and by increases.
The boom is on.
Z