Henderson daily dispatch., 1937-12-31


Hence, by next December, the number
of iobless should total about 5000 00O
against $500, 600 now and 100000 at
the 1887 business peak.
Taken as a whole, 1888 will not be as
good a year for statesmen, merchants
and advertising people as 1897. Things
are pretty slow right now and will
continue poor into 1898. However, as
the months tick away, the resistance
clouds should blow off and by late
next year the sellers market should
be on the way back. Then advertiser ?
Image will have another surge and
commission checks will again bulge.
The 1927 national income-estimated
at $40 0O,OOO,0 0C-wili not quite be
equallcd despite 1885 strong second
nalf sprint.
Retail Sales, Living Costs Lower.
The national income roughly deter
mines the volume of retail trade.
Hence, 1 expect retail sales will aver
age less in 1888 than 1887. They will
ce slow during the early months; but
they will follow the strong business
uptrend as the monthly pages are torn
off the 1888 calendar. BY next Christ
mas, volume of retail trade will have
a good chance of breaking all records
since 1929. Shading Of price-tags be-
tween New Years and Easter will help
to boost gales.
This drop in retail prices is good
news for the householder. 1t looks now
as though the cost of living which
has been rising steadily since 1888
will give ground early in 1883. The
average for the New Year, however,
should show only a minor drop as
food prices may touch off a new rise
along about Labor Day. From current
levels, your clothing will register a
modest decline by next Christmas;
food should be up slightly; coal will
show little change; fuel oil will be
firm to lower; and rents will be un-
changed.
Why Building Slows Down.
One OF the major cogs in this cur
rent BUSINESS recession has been the
sharp letdown in construction. Build
ing material concerns and building
workers both showed up costs out of
all reason during 1867. A house
which cost $4,000 to build in Deem
Der, 1885, would cost nearly $500 to-
day Naturally, demand for new homes
has slowed up in face of this unwal-
ranted boosting of costs. Home build
ing is down 20 per cent from the 1897
peak, is below year ago. and is still
falling.
My thought is that it will continue
to drop until after business has be-
gun to retrace its steps late next
Spring. Sometime next year, however,
home building should again be hum
ming along. The 1887 peak may even
&c topped so that the average volume
of new homes for the New Year could
be above last years level. The new
government housing program could
also give the industry a big lift. 1t is
even possible that the home building
boom which l really expected to de-
velop in 1887 will start late this COM
ing year.
Real Estate More Active.
Private non-residential construction
on the other hand, will be lower.
now see little incentive for new plant
work, however, may take up the slack
caused by PWA pulling in its horns
on public works projects. A decline in
building costs should help volume in
the early months; but before 1888
closes costs will reverse their field
again and be on their way to a new
peak.
These higher costs will help real
estate values. New home prices, which
are now being shaded here and there,
will strengthen. However, I hold little
hope for an increase in old house
values, barring drastic initiation. Good
vacant property and modest well-laid
out modern homes are among the best
investments a person can make today.
For that reason I feel that 1888 is go.
ing to be a good year for realty men
with a slow start and an active finish.
Stocks To Rally.
This same rough plan should also
hold for stocks. I expect to sec the
market fly the revival signal before
1888 is too old. It would be silly to
predict they will, or will not, break
through their 1887 March peak. It
makes little difference whether they
do or do not, for good stocks at cur
rent prices, in my opinion, offer ex-
cellent profit opportunities.
Furthermore, while selection will
again be important, Investigation
will be the vital point in 1888. Some
groups will, of course, do setter than
others. If | had to guess the outstand'
ing industries of 1888 from a market
standpoint, 1 would pick the metals
oils, building materials, aircraft max
ers, steels, chemicals, electrical equip
ments and mail orders. The utilities
may surprise investors and the raliS
are so low that any good news coulo
give them a tremendous percentage
increase in value. The motors and rub
bers offer less promise because auts
assemblies will be below 1887
Feature OF Bond Market. IL.
The bond market will be influenced
more by business in 1888 than 1t ha:
been during late years. Medium grace 16
have registered a terrific drop tn
Fan and I look for price increases II
this group to feature the bond mar mar
ket in 1888. Gilt-edge issues are dow down
-. n &C