Montana oil and mining journal. [volume] (Great Falls, Mont.) 1931-1953, 1937-02-13

a period. approximately 500 of the
oil now produced comes as flush pro-
ductiOn from 2@o of the wells. Even our
very oldest fields still yielding some
oil. All the wells in Pennsylvania, New
York, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and
illinois amount to 10S,695 in number
and these produced 1885,, 900 barrels of
oil in the last six months. Each of these
wells produces on the average one hum
dred and eleven barrels in six months
by pumping, whereas practically every
flowing well Will produce that much daily,
and each one of thousands of wells in
Texas, Kansas, California or Oklahoma
will produce from ten thousand TO thirty
five thousand barrels per day if per-
mitted TO flow open.
Even though it may be impossible for
us to produce our fourteen billion barrels
of petroleum before the year 1000, real
petroleum shortage will be felt in six
years, which should begin to be acute
in eight years, when petroleum prices
will rise to point where petroleum sub
stitutes can compete with petroleum.
Substitutes will of course be oil from
the reduction of oil shale and from the
pressure hydrOgenatiOn of coal and from
reduction of water gas. Each one will
be able TO prevent actual famine, but
will be high priced. Alcohol will be used
as a partial substitute for motor fuel
but cannot substitute for needed lubri-
cants.
IF we were to keep pace with con-
sumption we must discover one billion
barrels of new oil per year. For the
last five years our rate of discovery
has been barely over half billion per
year. The prospects are for decline,
under that figure during the next five
years.
'.Those who think that oil reserves are
mot limited and that there is no need for
conservation and careful handling of our
present production are deceived by large
pOtentials which are quoted for our large
flush fields. Col. E. o. Thompson of
Texas, says that the East Texas field
can produce 1O9,OOO,OOO barrels of oil
per day. This potential is no doubt
accurate and the reserves for this field
are based ON pOrOsity, yield per acre
and bottom hole pressure, all accurately
determined. If this field could be pro-
duced at this rate it would be exhausted
in less than ten days, whereas this field
under the present system of careful
handling can be producing as much oil
ten years from now as it is today.
MANY good new fields are still to
be discovered in Texas, Oklahoma, Kan
sas Louisiana and Arkansas. Deep drill
ling will be highly productive in the
central parts of Michigan and Illinois
basins from horizons as yet unproducttve.
States as yet unprOductive, such as Iowa,
Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, and the Dak0tas
deserve a more careful study and may
be expected to yield some commercial
fields. Montana and Wyoming and Colo
RADIO will yield new fields as further in
telligent prospecting progresses.
However, in spite of the constant dis
cOvery of relatively small new ones, Old
pools are getting harder to find as evil
denced by the increasing percentage of dry
holes. In Texas and Oklahoma the per-
centage has risen 500 in twenty years,
and in California 1919 in thirty years.
''These increases are persistent In spite
of the refinements in geological practice
and RhiIosOphic reasoning and in spite
biologists to the staffs of the larger or
CARNATIONS and the greatly augmented
program of geophysical prospecting.
This diminishing return can be some
what retarded by improved methods
of oil recovery, whereby we can bring
to the surface more oil per acre of the
oil now discovered than in the past. Some
fields profit by the water drive, but this
only applies to special conditions In GER
tain limited areas and is so very expensive
that 1t can be applied only to grades OF
oil which are already high priced. Re-
preserving by gas, successful In many
areas. cannot be applied in others, and
IS inexpensive only when the gas is not
in demand as a fuel for industrial and
domestic use.
'sOiI from sfaaIe cannot become an Inn
DOFtant substitute until MIDI Continent
crude oil has reached a price of about
S27O per barrel. This is true In spite
of the fact that the states of Colorado,
wyoming. Idaho. and Utah possess thous-