Evening star., 1937-12-19

- @Ng -StdT SIdU Ph0LO.
question, however, since nearly $500 Of
these we're colored persons who guessed at
their ages for the census taker
But 100 is a good. round figure. As an
average age 1t is a far-off goal toward
which man may chart his course 1t is a
long way from the present male average
OF SO. md very few individuals live to at
tain 1t. It will be the task of medical and
sanitary science of the future to advance
slowly, perhaps a few months at time,
into this 40-odd years of oblivion for the
majority.
Something, it is stressed in the Public
Health Service report, undoubtedly can be
accomplished along the lines already being
followed. Even now altogether too many
babies die in the first few months of life.
Altogether too many boys and girls 20 to
their graves in their teens from tubercu-
losis There are still preventable diseases
which take heavy toll of young life each
year. There are other maladies for which
still elusive means IT prevention and cure
may confidently be expected. There are
fields Of death in which public health serv-
ices now are fighting desperate campaigns
against venereal diseases. Perhaps, with
appropriate advances in psychiatry, the
tremendous toll of suicide may be cut in
half.
But even then the gain, as conserva-
lively calculated, would average only
about 10 years. That would leave 80 pos
sible years still unsaved-and to make
much progress here medical science must
succeed in fields where it has had little
success and suffered some setbacks in the
past. 1t must do as we'll for middle age
as it has done for childhood and ado
lescence-must conquer cancer, heart NAL
aides and diseases of the circulation and
the kidneys as well as it has conquered
diphtheria.
Europes Records Testify.
Expectation of life at birth, Mr.. Dorm
shows. seems to have been advancing very
slowly for almost 1000 years. Information
is scanty and inaccurate, but from avail
able figures it can be estimated that in
Rome during the early Christian era 1t was
between 20 and IS years. Life tables con-
structed before 1900 for various European
cities indicate that the expectation was
between Is and IS years. Tables based in
UWO pal lcllCS Af EIlS ldllu lIOUl 10 W l10t
give an expectation of 1877 years.
The earliest American data is life table
made up in 1890 by Edward Wigglesworth
for few towns in Massachusetts and New
Hampshire. This shows life expectation
at birth of from 80 to 35 years. In the
century and half that has past this ex-
pectation has risen rs years for females and
"a years for males. More than two-thirds
Of this gain has come since 1890. At ages
of so or over there apparently has been
little or no increase For the older ages
the expectation decreased slightly from
1890 to 1910. It increased again between
1910 and 1880.
What of the future?" Mr.. Dorm asks.
Can these gains be repeated during the
next generation? It seems impossible that
such will be the case unless mortality Of
adult life and old age is remarkably re-
duced To achieve the same increase in
the next generation every newborn infant
will have to live until about IS.
Hypothetical Table Speaks.
a"On the basis of past experience in this
country and in New Zealand, hypothetical
life table has been issued representing a
prediction Of the ultimate longevity attain
able with the present knowledge. Accord
ing to this table, the expectation of life at
birth may be increased to about 10 years,
or 81 years greater than that existing in
1900. In order to achieve this, however,
very substantial reduction in mortality dur
ing adult life will be necessary Opinions
may differ as to the possibility Of these re-
auctions. but at least 1t indicates the dis
eases which preventive medicine must con-
quer If any appreciable improvement Is to
be achieved.
One feature Of particular interest Is the
change In the age distribution oe the popu-
lAtion which would come from tas attain.