Evening star., 1936-03-29
BIC NAVAL RACE
IS HELD UNLIKELY
Expert Says Japan, Only
Nation Likely to Attempt
1t, Lacks Funds.
BY HECTOR C. BYWATER,
British Authority on Naval Affairs.
By Radio to The Star.

EhLS 1oN ~ II w m GAsB
British Authority on Naval Affairs.
By Radio to The Star.
LONDON, March 28.-Now that the
naval conference is over, it is possible
to forecast with some assurance the
effect of its labors on the international
position at sea.
In the first place, the system of
uuantitative limitation which has been
in force since 1922 will expire at the
end of this year and theoretically there
will be nothing to stop "free for all"
building race. Japan's absolute refusal
to accept any extension of the ratio
method killed all hope of quantitative
limitation.
Nevertheless, there is believed to be
no real danger of a big naval race.
Japan. the only power likely to attempt
1t, is fatally handicapped by a shortage
of cash. She is already spending half
her total income on war machinery,
her farmers are groaning under op-
pressive taxation. and an attempt to
increase her ornaments budget would
infallibly lead to grave domestic
trouble, such as Japan was threatened
with on the eve of the Washington
conference.
Japan Has Gained Nothing.
Thanks to their superior resources,
America and Great Britain will have
no difficulty in maintaining their pres
ent ratio as against the japanese fleet.
In the interests of Far Eastern peace,
it is not only desirable but imperative
that they should do so. Beyond "sav-
ing face" in the eyes of her own and
other Asiatic peoples, Japan has
gained nothing by her attitude at the
conference. She has merely hardened
the resolve of other powers with vital
interests in the Pacific to sustain at
all costs the existing balance of power.
On the material side. the most i'm
portant achievement of the conference
was a reduction in the cruiser stand
ard to 5000 tons and temporary sup
preston of those costly. vulnerable
ships. 10,000-ton, 8-inch cruisers
which are not inaptly labeled tin
clads," AS Britain proposes under her
new defense plan to build 25 new
cruisers within the next five years
the fixing of a lower tonnage limit
will save her a large sum of money
On the other hand the failure to ef-
feet cut in the battleship standard
Of $4,000 tons was a disappointment
to all conference powers except
America.
Britain Is Satisfied.
While it is realized that American
naval opinion regards this tonnage
as the lowest consistent with offensive,
defensive and cruising qualities re-
quired of a battleship which might
have to fight on the other side of the
Pacific. other naval experts consider
those qualities could be embodied in a
smaller hull. The question. however,
has been settled for some years to
come. and as far as Britain is con-
cerned there is no desire to reopen
an old but purely technical controversy.
The British policy has suffered a
reversal by the failure of the confer
ence to impose any fresh restrictions
on submarines. These may still be
built up to 1000 tons, figure exceed
ing in size the largest German UNDER
sea cruiser of World War days, and no
checks have been placed on any fur
ther expansion of foreign submarine
fleets, notably the French, Italian and
Japenese. which already have grown
to formidable dimensions.
One excellent result of the confer
ence has been the smoothing out of
all naval differences between the
English-speaking powers. It is now
mutually recognized that their sea
power policies are practically identical
Vital Problems Untouched.
The new naval treaty necessarily
leaves several vital problems I'M
touched. What, for example, is to be
the future of those naval bases in the
Pacific, development of which was ar
rested by the original Washington
pact? Will the end of that pact nine
months hence be a signal for the Gre
alton of big American bases in the
Philippines and Guam, and for coun-
teraction by Japan in her nearby
Islands, including the inundated terri
torres? If SO, a dangerous situation
must arise. Owing to Japan's abrupt
withdrawal from the conference ia
BILE, there was no opportunity for dis
cussing this highly important question,
which thus was left up in the air.
Not the last valuable feature of the
new treaty is its provision for abol-
1snlng the hush, hush" element In
naval armaments. If, as seems prob
able, the pact is subscribed to by Ger
many and Russia, all the leading
powers except Japan must in the fu-
ture exchange in advance all informa-
ton about their naval programs, actual
and projected, instead of conducting
their preparations as hitherto more
or less in secrecy.
Italy'S adhesion to the new treaty
may be delayed for a while by DO
lltical considerations, but that she
Will come in eventually is all but GER
tain. AS far as Japan is concerned,
the prevalent opinion is conference
circles is that she will find it advisable
Tor practical reasons to conform to the
spirit OF the new rules, if not the
letter.
tCoDyright, 1895. by the North American
Newspaper Alliance. IncO