Evening star., 1936-06-14
New Deal Disturbed
BY Farm Belt Drift
BY OVEN L. SCOTT.

Emil Hurja, the New Deals political
weather man, is noting some strange
signs on his public temperature charts
He and the other analysts still are In
quandary over their real meaning.
They see a sharp drop In the degree
of farmer and small town enthusiasm
for the present national administration
the opposition. The shift is reflected not
only on the Hurja charts, but on others
as well. 1t runs counter to the forecast
trend
The ups and downs of rural sentiment
are puzzling but highly important. Their
November direction could determine the
outcome OF the election.
*x 4
How well that fact is appreciated Is
explained by DR.. Rexford Tugwell, re-
settlement administrator and adviser to
President Roosevelt. He outlined the
reelection strategy of the Democrats
in significant talk Attacks on New
Deal policies were foreseen. But, said
DR.. Tugwell:
The far more serious attack will be
Of another sort-the attempt to separate
the two great masses of people who
have been helped most by our policies
and from whom we draw our strength
the farmers and the workers
He called for farmer-worker alliance
which would carry all before it.
To do this he said, I'VE shall have
to recognize our enemies, pouring out
upon them the Indignation. we have too
much withheld, and we shall have to
consolidate Our support and 60 forward
with closed ranks"
4
The political breeze, however, sug-
gests to the administrations shrewdeSt
forecasters that farm sentiment is on
the move again and not in the direc-
ton looked for by DR.. Tugwell Rather,
his concern over q split in the ranks
seems justified.
Some mystery surrounds the reason
for the shift now under way The po-
litical specialists are at work psyche
analyzing the rural mind for clue to
its solution.
The first thing they learn is that the
farmer, as well as the small town indi-
vidual. is essentially a conservative
being. His interests are not those of
the big city laboring man and no amount
Of wishful planning can effect a per-
manent tie-up between the two. The
land-owning farmer-and 80 per cent
come in that class-is on the side of
the employing group.
The next thing the pSychoanalysts
learn is that gratefulness is not always
controlling factor in politics.
*
Farmers have written their own legis-
lative ticket in Washington since Presi-
dent Roosevelt took Office. Such solici-
tude was shown for their wishes that
the present administration has been
criticized on the ground that it is
rural-minded.
Agriculture got production control. 1t
was given huge bounties. When drought
struck the Middle West and Southwest,
the Federal Treasury filled the breach,
in sharp contrast to experience under
other administrations. Farm debt was
ref1nanced on a low interest rate basis,
so low that taxpayers are helping sub
sidize it. A farm mortgage moratorium
was voted.
Devaluation of the dollar was directed
by farm economist. Silver buying Is
GA OAtSAOhk4l Va ia OL6dIllLdIlOll plCS~
sure. When prices started to decline in
1888 and 1884, the President authorized
price-flxing loans, bulwarked by the
Federal Treasury. A Supreme Court
upset Of original farm control plans was
quickly followed by a substitute plan
involving continued bounties.
But now the straws blowing across
the most important farming States
those that can be vital in determining
the outcome of the November election
show to the official watchers here that
apparently more than half of the farm
ers are opposed to the President. An
even larger proportion seems to oppose
New Deal policies.
What is the explanation?
AS given by officials busy with an
analysis of straw ballots the explana-
ton stems from several causes.
The first is that Middle Western
farmers and Northwestern farmers are
traditional Republicans with strong
party ties. They strayed from the fold
in 1882 when they were on the verge
of losing everything in the worst defla-
ton of farming history.
But now things are looking up again.
Prices are fairly good. Crops are i'm
proved. Income is the best in years,
with agriculture enjoying larger meas
ure Of prosperity than any other large
group in the population. So farmers
apparently are drifting back, confident
that their old party will give them what
they want.
The drift, however, is propelled by
several other policies. One is the pro-
gram of reciprocal trade agreements,
sponsored by Cordell Hull, Secretary of
State, and Henry Wallace, Secretary of
Agriculture. These men. along with just
about all economists, New Deal and
otherwise, are convinced that this coun-
try either will have to learn to act like
a creditor nation or agriculture and in
dustry are in for real regimentation.
The tariff reducing program involved
in trade agreements is aimed at
gradual adjustment of the American
market to a world trade basis. That
means letting down the bars to more
foreign products, so that foreigners can
obtain dollars to pay for the surplus
farm and industrial products they take
from this market.
George Peek, former A. A. A. admins
traitor, and former foreign trade adviser
to the President, is busy telling farmers
that they are needlessly being forced to
give up part of their markets to for
eigners. He doesn't see, and more and
more farmers appear to agree with him,
vhv fnreion rrodIcerS Shol1ld he able