Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1936-10-17


onstration Is cor D.,s1x.n..
roborative Of the
point Of view held by well-informed
observers-the cities and industrial
centers have been captured by Mr..
Roosevelt
Indeed, Michigan presents exactly
the same lines of demarcation that
. have found in Ohio, and in Indiana.
In other words. If you can learn just
how strong the ratio for Mr.. Roose-
welt Is in the cities and factory CEN
tiers and how strong the ratio for
Landon is in the towns and country
districts, the outcome of each State
can be predicted with almost mathe-
NAUTICAL accuracy.
Polls Show Change.
1t is precisely because the polls that
have been taken are not regarded as
final or conclusive as yet on these
points that a State like Michigan is
truly doubtful. Now, according to
reliable information that came to me
here, not from anybody connected
with the companies themselves but
from persons who vouch for 1t abso-
lutely, q poll was taken early last
month in an important automobile
plant employing many thousands OF
workmen, indeed one of the big fac
tories, and the result was about 8 to
] for Roosevelt A few weeks later,
In the same place, a poll was taken
and the ratio was to for Roosevelt
and. in the last few days, the ratio IS
said to have been 6 to for Roosevelt.
p Skilled Worker Switch Seen.
This is about the same story one
gets in other industrial centers in
in Ohio and Indiana. The Republicans
are certainly making some inroads
into the labor vote. I imagine they
are winning back skilled workers who
are beginning TO feel that Mr.. Roose-
velt's tieup with John Lewis can only
mean moral support for the industrial
type OF union, instead Of the craft
type Of union. This ultimately, 1t is
eontended, will bring q levelling off
Of the wages of the skilled workers
who are in the minority in order to
improve the position Of the unSkilled
workers, who, being in the majority,
will dominate collective bargaining
operations.
Then there's the growing converse
ton about the pay roll tax, which levy
will naturally affect the skilled worker
more than the unskilled because the
former gets higher pay and will get a
deeper cut in his pay envelope Janu-
AIRY when the Roosevelt administra-
TONS tax goes into effect. Many Of
the workers in the auto plants are Of
the skilled group and, If the Repub-
licans manage to wean away o suf-
ficient number to hold the majorities
in the cities down, the country and
town vote may be sufficient to enable
Landon to carry Michigan.
Most Of the editors in various sec
tions Of the State are agreed that the
rural vote is heavily Republican. much
stronger than 1892 with a substantial,
though not overwhelming, gain this
year over 1884 congressional and local
elections.
There seems to be q feeling that
votes are being changed in these last
weeks Of the campaign and that the
citizens who at first were inclined
merely to vote their emotions are be-
ginning to ask questions dealing with
the facts and logic Of campaign issues.
Michigan, on the whole, seems to be
o $3.50 proposition to date. Maybe
Mr.. Roosevelt might have the edge as
matters stand today. though 1t Is
significant the Democrats are just as
nervous about the outcome as are their
opponents. The average observer on
the outside can make up his mind
that, with the precious little time
available for campaigning and the job
that Mr.. Roosevelt has to do in New
England and New York where the
fight Il an uphill one. there would not
have been such great efforts made to
bring about demonstration In De-
.troit II Michigan had been Gin the
bag"
The mass demonstration idea ap-
pears to be an integral part of the New
Deal strategy and it has a bearing on
the so-called bsndwagon vote which
= substantial and always goes with
the surface tides.
Safe for Neither.
Michigan cannot be put down as safe
for either side, but the Republicans
privately insist they will win by 100, 900
and the Democrats privately are hop
ing for = plurality of about $4,000 or
10000 for Mr.. Roosevelt.
Ny own impression is that, as the
whole Central West goes. 80 Michigan
Will 20. To put it another way. I ex-
psct Ohio, Indiana and Michigan to
be found in the same column on the
day after election, but with variable
margins. That isn't, Of course, q con-
vincing indication Of what to expect,
but 1t comes nearest to describing &C
eurately the banning character OF the
electorate as one finds 1t by talking to
disinterested persons who know the
state and to seasoned campaigners
who are frank enough behind closed
doors to tell you the truth as they
see 1t.
fronvrisht 1Qst