Evening star., 1936-11-04

Roosevelt victory by wide margin
which meant a big popular majority
rather than a big electoral vote.
Taking up each of these possibili-
ties, business men genuinely feared
the last. They thought it might be
Interpreted as encouragement to rad
ical forces and groups which would
Insist upon more and more class
legislation and greater subsidies.
Such a development was regarded as
leading only to imitation and high
prices with unfavorable repercussions
sometime in the next l8 months even
to the point Of a serious, runaway
price situation.
As for the Landon victory-and 1t
was considered possible If at all then
by a narrow margin-the impression
was that the first effects would be
llnfavorable This was because of the
expected cutting down Of government
expenditures perhaps more abruptly
than Landon himself might really in
tend, but embracing a sort of de-
fationary movement. But while the
view held was that business would be
unsettled for a few weeks or months,
the theory accompanying such a dip
was that q more substantial upward
movement and q more solid building
Of business would result later as soon
as the Government props were grad
ually removed from the economic
structure.
Narrow Margin Wanted.
Likewise it was believed that long
term financing would open up after
a Landon triumph and might still
hesitate under Mr.. Roosevelt till his
budget plans were disclosed next jan
uary.
What most business men hoped for
whether they were Landon or Roose-
welt supporters, was narrow margin
result for either candidate. In the
case of Roosevelt triumph the theory
was that the size of the protest vote
would have a SOLDERING effect on ex-
Fermentation and radicalism and
would indicate a receding tide Of re-
form legislation and an increase in
conservative voting in both houses Of
Congress. In other words, the cleo
tion results were looked upon as pos
sibly forecasting 1888, and that, of
course, means an effect on the be-
havior of members of Congress in jan
uary next, when the record that will
be voted upon by the people in No
Vember, 1888, begins to be made.
Clue in Congressional Elections.
1t is no exaggeration to say that
even among many who supported the
New Deal cause whole-heartedly there
/ was a desire for more proportionate
representation of the ma jor parties in
Congress so as to revive the checks
and balances of sound Government.
The congressional results, therefore,
will furnish much more of a clue to
the attitude that business assumes in
the next few weeks than even the
presidential result.
For il America Is drifting toward
centralized Government or virtual die
tatorship, as claimed by the anti
Roosevelt speakers in the campaign,
the question of whether Congress will
or will not revoke the powers it grant
ed to the Chief Executive becomes one
that the electorate can begin to con-
slider in January, when the true line
up OF parties and groups in Congress
begins to be revealed.
There has been throughout the
campaign an undercurrent of express
sion amounting to a conviction that
second Roosevelt administration
would be more conservative than the
first, though this theory received a
bit Of shock in Mr. Roosevelt's speech
at Madison Square Garden.
G. o. P. Gains to Be Observed,
1t will be possible to deduce from
the election results many interpreta-
tions, but uniformly the fact that the
Republicans make gains in Congress
will probably receive the most wide
spread attention.
SO FAR as Unemployment is con-
cerned, this depends to no small ex-
tent on whether the Federal Govern
ment's fiscal policy takes on q better
look. and this will not be known till
the revised figures are announced in
January in the budget message. Long,
term borrowing by private companies
will await the definition of Federal
policy.
But there is another aspect of the
matter that will require clarification.
How far will Roosevelt triumph
encourage labor groups to make de-
mands for higher wages and shorter
hours. Will We have q series of
labor disputes, strikes and contro-
.versies? There are indications that
labor was restrained during the CAM
.paign from making demands that
would have led to serious disputes
only by administration officials who
were persuasive in keeping q sort of
truce before election. Now that the
election is over and the maritime
unions are beginning the struggle
anew. there may be sort of out
break Of jurisdictional strikes in
other fields.
May Force Peace.
Mr.. Roosevelt is not expected to
change his policy on these points but
an outbreak of strikes that seriously
interrupt recovery might force him to
take a more aggressive position in
trying to bring capital and labor
together. Meanwhile, the Supreme
Court of the United States may In
the next few months announce
decision on the Wagner act and this
is expected to do more toward shaping
labor policy than the poorly drawn
statute which, with its vague phrases,
has caused SO much unrest. The
benefits of collective bargaining un-
doubtedly will be better assured under
legislation that comes within the Con-
stitution.
To sum up, the immediate effects
Of the election on business viii not
be noticeable but the long range ef-
fects will be felt after the first Of
the year.