Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1936-10-10
Polls Confuse Predictions
Barometer State Of Maryland Seems to Refute Straw
Vote of Digest
Vote of Digest.

has been literally true Of Maryland
las 1t has not been Of Maine) that
as goes Maryland SO. goes the Nation.
Since 1892 (when Maryland, so to
speak, ceased to vote under Civil War
infiuences) in every presidential cleo
ton Maryland has gone the way
the country went.
This extraordinary record (not du-
plicated. think, by any other STATED
has given Maryland a kind of super
stitious standing with politicians and
political correspondents. Every four
years since 1892 any gambler who
could have known in advance how
Maryland would 60 would have been
able to bet successfully on the out
come in the Nation.
Which Barometer Right?
1t is for this reason that bettors,
predicters and observers puzzle over
the outcome of the present Maryland
poll. Here is a State with a remark
able protective record now forecaSting
Democratic victory. And here Is the
Literary Digest likewise with a re-
markable record, forecasting Repub-
lican victory. 1t is impossible to
reconcile the two barometers. II the
Maryland poll pointed only toward a
slight Democratic victory, observers
might dismiss it and rely on the
Literary Digest poll. For Maryland
commonly goes one way or the other
by only narrow majorities and con-
ceivably might this time be wrong.
But the Maryland poll points toward
81 per cent for Mr.. Roosevelt and only
about IS per cent for Gov. Landon.
Almost any politician or observer
would be willing to bet that If Mary
land on November 3 actually goes
Democratic In so large a proportion,
the country as whole would go
Democratic.
Exceeds 1882 Figures.
The Maryland poll actually gives
Mr.. Roosevelt larger per cent of
Marylands total vote than he had in
1882. In that year Mr.. Roosevelt's
proportion of the Maryland total was
just under So per cent. 1t would be
difficult to find any one Except pos
sibly the most inflated Of New Deal
ers) who thinks for one moment that
Mr.. Roosevelt will this year get as
large a proportion of the total vote
in the Nation as in 1882. In short.
as respects proportion of the total
vote at least, the Maryland poll seems
fantastic. Republicans may take
what comfort they can in an adapta-
ton of an old legal maxim-if fan
tastic in one respect, fantastic in all.
In yet another respect, the Mary
land poll is extraordinary. The total
number Of straw ballots sent out
Ito the. entire electorate) was $4,000.
Out of these, 269,840 have been re-
turned bearing the name Of the voters
choice. That is, IS per cent OF the
straw ballots, more than one-third,
have been marked and returned. This
is extremely unusual. The common
experience Of newspapers or organi-
cations that take polls of this kind
Is to get back less than 20 per cent.
am told the Literary Digest COM
monty gets back about Is per cent.
The usual experience Of business men
who send out circulars with requests
for answers is to get an even smaller
percentage of replies.
Post .Mortem to Decide.
Does the extraordinary number Of
replies in Maryland mean that the
Democrats are on their toes and
eagerly send back their ballots marked
for Roosevelt, while the Republicans
are less alert? Does it mean that
many Democrats who intend to vote
for Landon when in the assured
secrecy Of the voting booth, neverthe-
less, do not care to show their in
tentions on straw ballots?
Anyhow. this headon discrepancy
between the Maryland poll and the
Literary Digest one is rather more
discussed by politicians than the is
sues of the campaign. After the cleo
ton, the post-mortem will be inter-
esting and should throw some light
on what type of poll is the best
barometer.