Evening star., 1936-04-19
@. o. p. MUST WIN BACK
BOILERS FOR SO VICTORY,
Party Can Hope to Regain Many, While
Roosevelt May Find Himself Beaten
by Democratic DefectiOns.

6,573, ,988-call it six and a half mil
lions. That majority, in the nature
OF the case, must have been made
up largely of persons who habltually
vote Republican but who in 1889
voted Democratic.
Accepting the assumption that Mr..
Roosevelt's six and a half million
majority in 1882 was due mainly to
persons who habitually. vote Repub-
lican, let Is divide the majority in
two-a switched vote counts double.
The result, roughly three and a quar-
ter millions, is apparently the num-
Der Of Republicans who in 1882 left
their party to vote for Mr. Roosevelt.
Does this seem an unreasonable as
sumption? Were there as many as
three and quatrer million Republic
cans who in 1882 left their party and
supported Mr.. Roosevelt? The as
sumption seems tenable.
Three Reasons.
For Republicans leaving their party
in 1882 there were at least three rea-
sons. One reason was the depression.
The second reason was national pro-
hibition-"wet" Republicans, irritated
at their own party for being dry"
voted for Mr.. Roosevelt The third
reason was farm relief-Republican
farmers, who for 10 years had clam
ored at their own party for relief, left
it in 1882 to vote for Mr. Roosevelt.
Those three groups of Republicans,
think, by voting for Mr.. Roosevelt
in 1882, made up mainly his majority
Of six and half millions.
If we say that Mr.. RooSevelt's ma
jority in 1882 was made up mainly
of three and a quarter million Re
publicans who. in that year, voted
Democratic-if We say that, the Re-
publican party management this year
might think their problem is simple.
Their job, they may think, is merely
to get those Republicans back. If
they think that, they are wrong. In
the first place. not all those Repub-
licans can be got back,
The wet" Republicans whose rea-
son for voting for Mr.. Roosevelt was
national prohibition. may come back,
for national prohibition is no longer
an issue.
But how about the farm Republic
cans? They, in 1882, voted for Mr..
Roosevelt in order to get farm relief.
They got what they voted for. They
have it today, in the tangible form
of checks from the Federal Treasury.
| Will they, under this condition, re-
turn to the Republican party? OBJ
viously the answer depends in part
on whether the Republican party, in
its platform this year. offers the farm
ers some equivalent form of relief.
And how about the Republicans who
in 1882 voted for Mr.. Roosevelt be-
cause of the depression, because they
wanted recovery? They got what they
voted for Recovery is under way. 1t
is not under way because of Mr..
Roosevelt. Almost it would be true to
say the recovery is in spite of Mr.
Roosevelt and his policies. Recovery
was bound to come once the bottom
of the depression had been reached.
| There Is not space here to amplify
| this point. But it seems safe to say
! that many who in 1882 voted illogical
| ly and emotionally for the coming Of
recovery will this year vote illogically
and emotionally for the keeping of re-
covery.
The sum of all is that the Repub-
| lican party next November can hope
to get back many Republicans who
in 1882 voted Democratic-but de-
cidedly not all. But, to offset the
continuing Republican detection, the
Republican party, with the right can
didate and platform, can in November
| get very large number of Demo-
cratic votes. AS in 1882 Mr. Roosevelt
won largely by Republican detection,
so in 1896 can he lose by Democratic
detection.