Evening star., 1936-11-10

fallen to $500 900, . decrease Of "A per
cent in Is gears In actual numbers, but
Of more than IS per cent per 1000 Of
population and an even more startling
decline in relation to the number of
women under 45 years Of age.
In England there has been the same
sort Of reduction until within the first
three months of this year there were
fewer births than deaths-probab for
the first time since the great plague
swept over the country in the seven
teenth century.
inevitably In . declining population, 4"
says DIR. Baker, "old people will consti-
tute an increasing proportion This year
there are more persons Is years OF age
than there have been heretofore or will
be hereafter. unless births or immigrants
increase. These children were born In
1871, the peak year in births. Most of
them are completing the elementary
scnool course and many are looking for
jobs. Ten years hence there will be more
people Is years Of age than OF any other
age. Most Of these young people will
be about to marry and start homes.
Many will be already married. Millions
of new houses will be needed during the
next Is years. Thirty years hence
there will be more people Of As years of
age than Of any other age, and the need
for more houses will have passed. Fifty
years hence there will be more people Of
d than Of any other single year of age.
II births continue to decline and immi.
grants do not increase greatly.
This aging Of the population has been
In progress since the Civil War, but has
become accelerated since the World War.
Between 1920 and 1880 the number of
people over 65 years OF age increased IS
per cent in the Nation as . whole and
50 per cent in the cities. The increase
will continue at q similar rate for at
least several decades to come, for these
people are middle aged now and the
number who will live to be 65 or over can
be estimated closely. A quarter of q
century hence the number Of old people
in the United States will be twice rs great
rs at present, and SO years hence about
three times rs great"
This age distribution, DR.. Baker
points out, places q larger number of
persons than ever before in the produc.
group will reach its maximum in mum.
bers during the decade from 1910 to 1850
and then 1t will start to decline as more
and more persons become too old to
work and fewer children grow up to take
their places. The result, he says. Is
bound to be q reduced national income
and an eventual serious depletion of the
national wealth.
The consequences OF an economic sys-
tenn which Is undermining the family"
he says, will not come suddenly like q
thief In the night, but slowly and quietly
like the progress Of the seasons. There
will be warm days and then cool days,
periods of prosperity and then of de-
preston, but the trend will be toward
Winter We cannot fully foresee the
conditions which will develop when there
are only one.third as many children In
the Nation As now. and three times as
many old people. But we can see in Eng
land at present what 1t means TO have
two-thirds ~ many children and twice
~ many old people as 30 years ago. The
nation appears not as vigorous In de.
tending its interests as formerly, but Is
living fairly comfortably. A half century
hence. If the births continue to. decline
~ they have during the past quarter OF
. century, England will be nation
almost without youth, and the young
people ef t1AAy win be old or dead"