The producers news. [volume] (Plentywood, Mont.) 1918-1937, 1936-09-18
STRAW VOTES

Polls and straw ballots, in an
attempt to anticipate the results
of November's presidential cleo
ton, are going to be very much
the fashion for the next month or
so. In most of them there is a
catch.
Polls and straw ballots attempt
to forecast on the basis of sam
pie taken by the poller. If,
he says, this particular sample
I've taken, votes this way then 1t
is a safe assumption that the
whole group, from which this
sample Is taken, will vote in the
same way. 1t becomes necessary,
therefore, to be absolutely certain
that the sample taken is truly re-
preventative of the group whose
vote is being forecast.
One of the most popular as we'll
as reliable polls is that conducted
by the Literary Digest magazine.
First results announced by the
magazine claim twO-to-One vote
for Landon in New Jersey, New
York, Maine and Pennsylvania.
But look at their sample before
leaping for the storm cellar.
The 1882 records show that 81
per cent of the country voted
Democratic and 80 per cent Re
publican. That is the group that
the Literary Digest is sampling.
1t means that of every 100 persons
polled this year 81 should have
voted Democratic in 1882 and 80
should have voted Republican.
First returns on the Digest poll
show 1906 votes for LandOn,
1916 for Roosevelt, and 754 for
Lemke. Of the 24,455 people pol
led, however, 81 per cent reported
that they voted for Hoover in 1892
and only SO per cent voted for
Roosevelt.
In other words the Literary Di-
gest asked more Republicans than
Demomcrats who they were going
to vote for this year. The result
therefore, is not surprising. You
wouldn't be surprised if the Pope
said he was a Catholic, would
you?
Actually in those four states ir
1892 the vote was 50 per cent De
mocratic and Al per cent Repubi
can. If this Digest poll is to be
adjusted to make it a truly repre-.
sentative sampling, therefore, l;
per cent of the votes should b
added to the Democratic figure
and Ia per cent substracted from
the Republican figure.
Doing this the results become
Roosevelt, 12,1OO and LandOn II,
500. Surveys by expert politlca
reporters bear out the clOseness o
the fight in these states as indi
Gated by the adjusted figures.
This statistical analysis is, o
course, rough and ready but l
was prepared by reliable stats
ticians who are as unbiased as an
that can be found here, wher
statistics are we'll behaved
Nevertheless it's fundaments
premise holds. To Judge tn
veracity of a poll or stra'
ballot look to the fairness 9
the sampling. Every honest ba
lot should include an indication {
how the voter cast his ballot
1882.
Polls, straw and such are ver
valuable political animals. AS d.
monstrated they can be used Il
almost any wanted result. The
if the publicity machine is avail
able, the results of the ballot CO
be spread to the four winds al
people be induced to jump on Il
bandwagon.
The favorite polling place f,
roaming correspondents a fe
years ago used to be the day cOa'
of the local train. Nowaday tn
isn't so valuable what with aut
mobile transportation and hitc
hiking.
According to accounts, the f
ling station attendant is becoml
the great sounding board for t
'lower classes" His opinion as
representative of the working m
is SO highly valued that, it is Z
mored, oil companies have appiI
CONTINUED on page fve)
ed their attendants as first VIII
perers in a whispering campais
The inquiring motOrist ask
what the political situation
may be met with the reply Il
Landon is being charged W
ri l.