Milford chronicle., 1936-08-21
ECONOMIC HIGHLICHTS
Happenings That Affect Dinner Pals,
Dividend Cheeks And Tax Bills
OF Every individual

You could safely bet that both
James A Farley and John NJ. Ham-
ilton, rival political Merlins Of the
major parties, are keeping eager
eyes fixed on the business barometer.
And they are likewise watching the
comments OF businessmen on the
/ burning subject Of the New Deal.
As the astute Frank Kent recent
" observed, few presidents have
been beaten when business was i'm
pFoying-yet no candidate has been
elected when the sentiment Of busl-
ness men was overwhelmingly
against him. Today. beyond argu-
nlent, business is improving 80
odd per cent Of our industrial lead
ers seem firmly convinced that the
reelection OF Mr.. Roosevelt would,
20 put it mildly, be unfortunate for
the country. Some OF them say that
If a Republican had sat In the White
House, business would have improv-
ed much faster and be much better
than e Is. But they can't prove it,
while the President can point to the
undeniable statistics to buttress his
position. Even so, bright as the bus.
mess picture is In comparison with
the dark days Of 1882 and 1888, there
are plenty of shadows In sight.
Big question is, How much have
we actually reeOvered-hOW near
are we to Industrial ''nOrmalcyY'
That question Is extraordinarily diff
1cult to answer-and partisans,
either favorable to the Administra-
ti0n or opposed 20 It, have little
trouble in twisting the statistics to
suit their wishes.
Excellent brief survey OF recovery
was recently made by BeFtram BEN
edict of Editorial Research Reports.
Mr.. Benedict pointed out that no
single index exists with which to |
measure all the economic activity of |
the nation. And, even IL you take !
the best index available, usually con-
sidered to be the Federal Reserve |
Boards, the difficulties Of interpre-
tatiOn are vast.
This index, for example, takes the /
period Of 1923-25 and regards It as
normal, with an arbitrary point rat
ing of 100. At the depth Of depres-
sion, the index, compared with this
normal period, stood at so. Today it
Is close TO 100 again, which would
indicate that the nation has emer-
ged almost completely from hard
times. However, since 1926, there
has been a 13 per cent increase in
our population. Therefore, the index
would have to stand at about 113 to
show industrial activity equal to that
of 1923-25.
Other commentators say that the
Reserve Boards index, being based
entirely on industrial output as dis
tinct from consumption of goods.
leaves much to be desired. Here
again, a difficulty is encountered in
that there is no reliable single in
1ex of consumption. Department
store sales are at about SS per cent
Of the 1923-25 level. But no one
knows how much sales volume these
stores have lost in recent years to
houses and chain stores,
and consequently, no. one knows how I
accurate is an index comparison of /
heir present to past sales.
Many efforts have been made tOi
Judge Americas recovery from de- ,
preston in the light of the! expert /
snce abroad. Best surveys place US =
It about average. But the problems
If exchange, of different standards
If living, of the questionable statis-
les issued by some important for
sign governments, make a large
margin of error inevitable
A really accurate report on the
situation would be of
help in evaluating Ameri-
as progress. But none exists-all
ne have Is estimates of the number /
# unemployed. ranging from five to =
fifteen millions.
Accurate statistics on industrial
layrolls do exist. These payrolls {
low stand at 80 per cent Of the (
923-25 level. Real wages" are a /
rife higher, as the purchasing pow
II of the dollar is greater now than
( was then. But If we make allow
nee for the increase in population,
he payroll picture becomes less
Thus, the voter has no way Of find
ng out whether times are as good !
IS the friends of the Administration )
ay they are, OF as bad as its OPP J
,Onents hold. All he can go by is the !
,eneral trend-the up or down
of the many uneorrelat-
d indexes. Even so. he will be in q
there is improvement, /
Iow much of Il is natural, and how !
much the artificial result Of govern 5
cent pump-priming? 2
If there should be q a..Republieap q