Evening star., 1936-05-13
Ne,u Census Estimation Plan
Raises District Count BY 100, 900
$4,000 Figure Based on City Directory,
School List and u. S. Pay Rolls-Old
AritImeticaI Method abandoned.

The District Of Columbia was serv-
Ing in its familiar capacity of an ex-
perimental laboratory when the Cen
sus Bureau reached its estimate of
594 900 population for the Nation's s
Capital.
The story behind the latest popula-
tion estimates, released on Monday
Of this week, follows:
1t had been the custom during the
10 years between oficial census
enumerations to estimate populations
with principal reliance being placed
on formula Of arithmetical progress
sion. Trends of the previous decade
were noted, both for individual cities
and States and the Nation as whole,
and the same rate of increase or de-
crease was applied for each year.
1t was found, however, that unusual
conditions in certain communities
caused population shifts that upset
the accuracy of such hard and fast
arithmetical procedure. For in
stance, the Florida boom brought an
unforeseen population increase there;
growth of the automobile industry
pushed Detroit ahead with greater
speed than the rest of the country;
changing fortunes in the textile in
dustry affected population in New
England
Abnormal Increases.
In Washington the influx Of war
time Government employees gave the
Capital such an abnormal increase
rate that application of the arithmeti-
cal formula through the 1905 re-
suited in population estimates con-
siderably above the true figures.
In addition. experiments in pre-
dieting populations for 1910. 1920 and
1880, and comparing them with actual
figures of those years showed pro-
nounced inaccuracies. The practice,
nevertheless, was followed through
1888, when it was recognized that
population trends resulting from the
depression were contributing further
to the falhbility Of the estimating
methods.
1t was decided then to abandon the
old method while experimenting with
new ones, at the same time hoping
that the way would open for an accu-
rate census count in 1885 or some year
prior to 1910.
AS hope for the 1885 count faded
however. city and State agencies o.
public health found themselves in.
creasingly handicapped by lack o.
census figures for years after 1888
Birth and death statistics were o.
little value without a population fig.
ure from which rate may be com.
puted.
Farley on Census Methods.
In September, 1885, a conference
was held at the Bureau of the Census
with several governmental agencie.
and outside organizations interested
in population movements being repre-.
sented. After reviewing the whole
problem, the conference adopted eight
recommendations, first of them being
that the bureau should continue tt
accept the responsibility for making
population estimates" that variou;
sources of information be used al
discretion of the bureau and that ''ir
publication the Census Bureau describe
the method or methods which have
been employed and indicate the re-
liability to be expected"
For the District, three possibilities
were found most promising First
a city directory which they found to
be reasonably complete and accurate
Second, school enrolment statistics
Third, Government pay rolls.
In using the directory. Census Bu-
reau workers established q relation
ship between the 1880 directory and
the accurate 1880 census count. They
next took the 1886 directory, reviewed
it carefully enough to eliminate per-
sons not actually within the District
lines and then applied the same
arithmetical relationship to it as was
found in 1880.
School Enrollments Used.
In the case of the school enroll
ment, they traced back the figures
to determine the number of persons
in each family, at the same time elm
mating those living outside the Dis
trict. Private school enrolment was
checked in like manner.
Government pay rolls, both civil
service and non-civil service, next
were checked with an effort made to