The Waterbury Democrat., 1936-09-12
BEHIND q
THE SCENES
IN THE
!. CAMPAIGN
BY RODNEY BUTCHER
Waterbury Democrat Washington
Correspondent

tiClanS means more 1HdH
What They Say Publicly;
How Their Private Fore
casts Shape Up
New York, Sept. 12-Politicians
say one thing when they make pub
lie forecasts about the election and
another thing when they speak
privately among themselves.
The latter expressions are the
more important. because they gre
much more likely to be accurate.
Party leaders at national headquar-
tiers have the benefit Of polls, pub
lie and private. They also receive
full and detailed reports from their
state leaders, who are usually wise
and experienced in the politics Of
their area.
Finally-and this should not be
fOrgOtten-these leaders are for
titled in their predictions by in
innate knowledge as to the rela-
tive efficiency of their state ma
chimes and knowledge Of the
amount Of money and effort they
are willing to pour into this and
that state in the final stages.
It's that last factor-the final i'm
petus of money and frenzied effort
which makes the sizeups and polls
as Of this date impossible to depend
upon as indicative of the result.
Machines and Money
You have two immeasurable fac
tors insofar as their influence on
that result Is concerned:
II The Democratic political ma
As chinery. This means the nor
NAL federal patronage machine
everywhere plus definite political
activity by much Of the network Of
New Deal agencies created since
1882. 1t also means the patronage
machines of practically all the big
states and most of the other-just
remember the overwhelming num-
Der of democratic governors and
members of Congress elected in
1882 and 1884. For the sake of con-
venience you can add here the
weight of beneficiaries of WPA,
AAA, Hole, CCC and various 9TH
er New Deal agencies, a majority
Of whom are counted on to vote for
Roosevelt.
- The Republican war chest,
80 which will be twice the size
of the Democratic campaign fund
and perhaps much more.
Those are the material factors.
the relative effect Of which Is even
more speculative and even more a
matter of argument.
First, there is the popular re-
action against Roosevelt since the
1894 election. Everybody admits
that reaction has been q huge one.
must be no backSwing Of the PEN
dulum.
Second, any reaction which may
have resulted against Landon
since his acceptance speech. Many
Republicans insist this is q pure
ly imaginary factor. But some Of
LandOn's closest friends and some
Of the best Strategists in the Re-
publican party think IL is some-
thing to worry about-anyway,
they're worrying.
In all probability the election of
1886 will be recorded historically
as having been decided by one OF
those trends.
New England for G. o. P.
This writer has been talking in
timately with some of the biggest
and smartest leaders of the two
parties and presents the following
Tor what 1t may be worth.
Republicans are confident they
will take New England. Some
democrats say they have q
chance" in achusetts, but all
hands concede q big G. o. D. VIC
tory In Maine in the September
elections as well as In the presi-
DENTAL election. Republicans claim
New Jersey and I've heard no
democrat dispute that
Republicans are much more con-
fdent Of New York's AZ electoral
votes than democrats are. Gandon
can't win without those; Roosevelt
might) Optimistic 6. o. p. leaders
sincerely believe they may get an
800,0 900 plurality upstate which will
overturn New York city plurality
Of 100000 to 100000 votes. Jim Far
ley, however, daily assures his init
mates that New York is all right
no matter what you hear"
Worry Over Pennsylvania
Republicans are definitely worried
about Pennsylvania SO. Democrats
In a position to Judge either say
we've got q good chance there" or
we're going to win It,"
Republicans say It's likely to be
tough because of John Lewis and
the miners-plus other labor lead
ers, the colored vote, and the Guf-
fey-Earle machine.
G. o. p. leaders are hoping that
miners will resent Lewis "dicta-
ton" as to how they should vote
and that II will turn out that both
the miners and the c0lOred people
all voted for Roosevelt four years
ago en- the wet" issue, only to
return to the 8. 0. p. fold in large
numbers in 1886.
Democrats insist Indiana Is
safe" and republicans dispute but
none too vigorously. Both sides
come nearer agreement that ILL.,
nois Is fighting ground, with repub-
licanS seeming a bit more confident.
Democrats admit that Ohio looks
bad for them at this time, thanks
to irritation over their Governor
Davey and strong Coughlin senti-
ment.
Several States Doubtful
Democrats insist they have the