The Daily Alaska empire., 1936-10-05
MT. ROper's Forecast
(New York Times)


 Secretary Roper of the Commerce Department has for years gained the distinction not shared by all the Governments present chiefs of envisaging s9nely and practically matters of economic interest which concern his departments activities For that reason, his forecast recently of the country S financial future attracted interest MT Roper's ex- rression of judgment is that we have entered not temporary but ong-term upward swing" that We are approaching one of the greatest in Ameri- can history The prediction has tinge of enthlsi- asm, but it hardly be called extravagant in the light of what lfas happened in the aftermath past great depression periods" Our country's fin ancal history has repeatedly proved that the hard
 times following collapse of wild speculative boom the people sorrowfuly adopt the conclusion that American prosperity has gone forever only discover when the difficult process of retrenchment and re- adjustment had been completed that subsequent covery eventually carried the country's economic achievement to heights reached before
 This is the commonplace of American economic history. But the Secretarys further remarks on our economic future raise another question Mir Roper very correctly reminds that of our greatest difficulties will be ito prevent segments of business from boom conditions This is only another way of saying that continuance of the prosperity which the country eventually should regain depends on prudent use of credit and avoidance of speculative mania The Secretary intimaes that these very desirable re- suits may be achieved by what he calls a Bureau of Industrial Economics. Inferentiay it would be the business of such governmental bureau to examine the actual facts implications in outbursts of specu- auVe excitement and, by warning against possible excesses to protect the public from what happened 1929.
 Nothing could be more useful The difficulty is to insure the detached and dispassionate view of such an episode by an official body. Today and during four or five past prudent experts cham bers of commerce, and thoughtful Govern ment officials could be depended to warn against financial overconfidence. So they could have been in 1923, for instance, in 1897. But how about time when, happened in 1929 the speculative illu- sion had not only gained control of the public mind but had become almost ineXtrcably bound up with politics?
 We do not need to remind the reader of President Coolidge's remark of January 1928 when brokers loans" had increased nearly thousand million dollars in six months, that this natural expansion of business in which there nothing unfavorable." ," The attitude of almost every competent practical wiser in that period shaped either by surrender on his own part to the popular illusion else by hesi tation at denouncing speculative movement which was considered an enthusiastic tribute to American prosperity. Reminscently, imagine the public indignation if the President his Treasury Secre- tary in the middle of 1929 had publicly and emphati caly warned the people of what would happen them if they did not stop their speculation Among even our responsible financiers, MT Warburgs was almost the only voice to tell the truth and he denounced for trying to "sandbag American prosperity
 Perhaps the exceedingly bitter lesson of 1929 will last longer than others of the kind Perhaps we shall evolve race of responsible financers public men who will understand their duty such times and will not allow popular obloquy denunciation to stand in the way of honest and plain-spoken warnings. Whether any official body could perform that service is more of question; all know how the view of the Wall Street situation by the Congress 1929 con- trasted with that of the Congress of 1933 But MT Roper is right in believing that one ought to be made to recognize the duty of speaking plainly and honestly such occasions.