Evening star., 1936-10-08

campaigns that he can tell you on
hand exactly how each county, each
city. each town, each section OF the
State voted in various elections, what
the change in the returns this year
indicates from those same Localities
and what the whole thing averages
up to as more and more ballots
come in.
But. first. as to method. Ballots
are handled both by mail and by
personal canvass, but. unlike the
Gallup poll, for example, the cam
vassers do not engage in any con-
yersation or ask any questions, but
simply hand the citizen blank ballot
and an envelope in which to seal
A. in secrecy while the canVaSser
waits for the marking.
There are four main divisions. one
Is to send canvassers to factories ana
plants in industrial centers and to
take a vote as men come in or 90
out from their work. A second task
Is to take what is called a street
ynte" In the same cities and towns,
and the third is to send canvassers
into office buildings in the downtown
or business sections and to stores
and shops.
Mailed to Farmers.
The fourth division OF the work
Is to mail ballots to rural voters IN
the agricultural counties in huge
Qua ntities to get a good cross-section
of Democrats as we'll as Republican
counties.
Thus the farmers and their wives
are reached by mail and the city popu-
Ia ation by careful canvass of factories.
downtown business sections. and
people on the streets-men and
women.
The Columbus Dispatch poll Is
young vet. Only $4,000 ballots have
as vet been received, but when COM
pleted it will include about 100, 600.
When it is considered that 2,5O0,OOo
persons voted in the last election,
sample amounting to between 4 and
, 3 DER cent is, quantitatively speaking,
very satisfactory. =....
Now, as to rate Of returns, the
mailed ballots are bringing in an
ewers to the amount OF l8 per cent,
which Is also adequate for sample
purposes. To offset the disadvan-
tape with respect to labor and factory
workers who wouldn't be reached by
mail and to insure quantitative test,
the personal canvass reaches large
cross sections in cities and towns in
different parts of the State. In other
words, as good a sample as is hui
manly possible on fairly large scale .
Is being canvassed by the Columbus
Dispatch poll.
Now, what does the poll show thus
far or indicate for the future in Ohio?
The total votes published to date in
rlude mostly cities, and the results
Of the mail ballot to rural counties
are Just being tabulated.
What the poll experts try to do is
10 find the average plurality per-
eentage in counties that were Demo-
cratic or Republican last time and
to note the increase or decrease.
Cities for Roosevelt.
These eight large counties comprise
about 40 per cent of the total vote.
Based on percentages Of the Colum-
bus Dispatch poll. these counties will
probably show before the poll is COM
pleted plurality for President Roose-
velt of between 8 and 10 per cent.
Now, the rural counties, comprising
about SO per cent of the total vote,
disclose in the poll plurality for
Gov. Landon of about Is per cent.
The Republican nominee has carried
al but one of the nine rural counties
thus far polled and the exception is
q normally Democratic area where
the vote this year in the poll appears
about even, showing large detection
Of Democratic farmers to Landon.
Probably about 10000 farmers will
be polled by mail between now and the
end of the month, so the results are
not yet sufficiently far along to reach
q final conclusion. But, assuming
that the trend in the country Is Is
per cent plurality for Landon and the
Roosevelt margin in the populous
counties is between and 10 per cent,
the ultimate result would appear to
be so close that, II Gov. Landon car
ries the State by $4,000 he will be
lucky, and it does seem as If the fg-
ures point to q better opportunity for
Gov. Landon to capture the electoral
vote OF the State than has President
Roosevelt
~ The poll shows q large Lemke-
Coughlin strength in the cities. 1t
also shows men and women voting
about the same in the mail ballot. 1t
likewise shows that the business and
professional groups are very strongly
Republican this year, while the labor
and factory workers are almost fiercely
for Roosevelt.
Workers Favor Roosevelt.
Usually, labor in Ohio averages
about one and one-hah Democratic
to one Republican. This year the
voting in the factories and plants
shows about four to one for Roosevelt.
Canvasses among railroad and steel
workers reveal this trend very de-
cidedly.
The canvassers report that the
workers sign their ballots openly on
many occasions, whereas, in other
years, they would be timid about it.
In other words, they are voting very
strongly along the very lines of class
cleavage which Mr.. Roosevelt has at
tempted so assiduously to cultivate.
} In the office buildings and among
business men, the situation Is not as
clear as might be thought. The ex-
ecutive and business men with re-
sponsibilities, who see the big tax
load coming to take away the profits
they are earning and to send prices
up with the possibility Of public re-