Evening star., 1936-07-15

that in November the outcome Will De
anything like the present poll. the
feeling is that the Gallup poll shows
the nature of the contest. A more
significant impression which has been
derived from the poll by the New Deal
ers is that the race is not going to be
a walk-away for President Roosevelt
and that the New Deal command Will
have to GRID itself for hard fight.
Landslide Talk Buried.
Perhaps the reason why the Gallup
poll has occasioned much surprise IS
that the New Dealers have been think
ing. talking and believing in another
landslide. They have accepted the
predictions of Postmaster General
Farley that Mr.. Roosevelt would carry
nearly every State of the Union
Obviously every poll taken Woulo
seem to disprove any such sweeping
result. The Gallup poll has awakened
the New Dealers to realization that
they never should have envlSioned the
present campaign as a landslide Tor
anybody, but as hard-tought race
which is more likely to be close in its
margin of result than an overwhelm-
ing victory for either candidate.
It is natural for the Republicans to
gain considerable confidence from the
Gallup poll. They benefit tremend-
ously by it because it heartens political
workers all over the country, so many
of whom have been disheartened by
defeatist attitude growing out OF an
oft-heard comment that Mr.. Roosevelt
seemed unbeatable.
Campaign Managers Shaken.
The poll will not be an unmlXed
blessing to the New Dealers, for out OF
their tendency to let things slide along
they will be aroused to greater ana
greater effort. 1t is remarkable the
effect that polls do have on the cam
paign managers. On the surface. II
poll is adverse, the explanation usually
offered is that the poll does not take
in enough territory or that it was not
timed to take advantage of this or that
DEVELOPMENT. If it is favorable, OF
course, the poll is regarded as a splen-
did example of the trend.
There is no way to evaluate the
Gallup poll any more than any other
survey in which only about 1O60O0
ballots are taken. The Literary Digest
polls in the past have been uniformly
indicative of the result because millions
of ballots are distributed so that the
ballots received represent good cross
section. For statistical purposes, 1t is
always a matter of debate just how
big a sample of public opinion should
be taken to measure trend.
Certainly the Gallup poll looks
wrong in several particulars if one is
to judge by impressions received from
individuals we'll posted on their own
States. It would appear that the
4O,00O,0 900 votes cast in 1882 will be
overshadowed this year by total vote
of somewhere between 47,000,000 and
5O,OOO,OOO so that a cross section OF
100000 at any given time might or
might not be conclusive of what the
results will be in November.
Forecast Not Conclusive.
The campaign has yet to be unfold
ed. It may be that prejudices are
already set on the anti-RooSevelt side
in many groups, but it is doubtful if
the large body of independent voters
who never take their politics seriously
till November comes have as yet made
up their minds to be pro-Landon. They
want to hear the debate and weigh the
issues. So the Gallup poll may be set
down as possibly an accurate forecast
of the result in November. but not con-
clusively so because of the many
doubtful factors which are candidly
pointed out in its own analysis OF the
. figures
For the moment the news is that the
New Deal is disturbed by the poll and
the Republicans greatly cheered. About
the only impression which one dares
to derive from it Is that the coming
election will be much closer than has
been generally believed, and that land
slides are not to be expected.
Copyright, 1860