Evening star., 1936-10-20

an t not emitted David Lawrence.
at this time to use names Maybe If
their predictions and analyses are
borne out by the actual returns on
November 5. will be allowed later
10 disclose their authorship. For the
present. let it suffice that they are
both nationally known, though neither
Is active in the campaign OF any
party this year. Their mode of rea-
soning, however, is more important at
the moment than their identity, any
way.
One Of the men referred to takes
the Literary Digest poll, notes that
1t has been reaching more Republicans
than New Deal party voters, and states
that the missing vote can be CAL
eulated by merely applying the 1882
percentages of Republican and Demo-
cratic vote. Thus, in Illinois. there
were 1873 Roosevelt votes for every
100 Hoover votes in 1892. Multiplying
the Republican and Democratic vote
In this years Literary Digest pool for
Illinois by 1913 per cent in order to get
the equivalent number Of New Deal
voters who should be represented IN
the 1886 Digest poll, the so-called
humber of votes is obtained.
Studies Cook County.
The second analysis, made by an
altogether different person, who has
had a background of national affairs
Of nearly so years, concerns COOK
County In particular He SAYS:
IN the 1882 primaries, preceding
the Roosevelt landslide in the Fall OF
1882, the Republican votes over
whelminely outnumbered the Demo-
cratic votes in many States.
Tn both the 1882 and 1895 pri-
hnaries the registration was very large,
as compared with the total Of the pri-
mary votes of both, which was very
small. In California, for instance, this
year, although there was a spirited
contest in one Of the parties. the pri-
mary vote polled was 51.79 per cent OF
the total registration. In other words
over 48 per cent of those registering
for the primary did not vote in it.
THE man who intends to change
his vote in the presidential election,
not vote in the primary contest, which
only involves internal differences Of
party to which he does not belong. He
registers in the primary perfunctorily,
in accordance with habit. He does
not vote in it because the principle
which changes his vote Is not at stake.
It is from such voters that landslides
come.
Now. the recent registration shows
s.l40.eo0 votes in Cook County, but
Mr.. Roosevelt In the 1885 primary
polled s31 900 votes. To receive so
per cent Of the entire 7,14o,000 votes
registered for the next election. to
wit, 100000 votes. he would have to
receive 73s 900 more.
The excess of the registered votes
for the November election was 900, 900
above the votes cast in the primary
an immense and apparently unprece-
dented figure. Accordingly, If Roose-
velt receives as small an amount as
$4,000 votes out of this 900, he
will have tied Cook County.
Now remember that the invariable
mark of q landslide Is the enormous
excess of votes cast in the election
over the total vote cast in the pri-
maries. For the voters changing from
one party to the other in such num-
bers as cause landslide register but
do not vote in the primaries.
Here are some figures which dem
onstrate that. in landslide years, the
In' party polls in the ensuing elec-
ton only about the vote it received in
the primary-in many cases less-and
that the excess vote in the election
over and above the total vote cast in
the primaries goes to the out party
Iowa: Hoover polled, in the 1882
election. 25,567 votes less than he
polled in the primaries. Roosevelt
polled 445,019 votes more in the elec-
ton than he received in the primaries.
Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Michigan: Hoover polled only
i4.7O6 more votes in the election than
lss received in the primaries. Roose-
velt polled over $4,000 more votes
than he received in the primaries.
"Pennsylvania: Hoover polled 81, ,S21
votes in the election less than in the
primaries. Roosevelt polled 1.l20, sol
votes more in the election than he
polled in the primaries.
illinois: Hoover polled 344,107
votes more in the election than he
polled in the primaries. Roosevelt
polled 1,227,739 more votes IN the
election than he polled in the pri-
naries.
Accordingly, I do not give Roose-
velt q vote in Cook County in No.
Vember of over $50 900, as compared
with his 831 900 vote in the primaries,
and my estimate, therefore, Of Lam
don's majority in this county, based
upon 2,i40,0O0 registration. Is from
l0o,o 900 to 100000"
To put it another way, If the Cook
County vote is really $3.50. then Mr..
Landon Is much closer to victory in
this national election than ID gen.
orally believed.
I would have given only passing
thought to the analysis which my in
formant in Chicago outlined had I
not learned the very next day OF some
important polls being taken In Cook
County, which show an amazing
parallel, namely, q $3.50 division.
This, Of course, Is q surprise after Mr..
Roosevelt's big street parade demon
stration last week In Chicago. II
Cook County produces an even break
for Landon on election night. Presi-
dent Roosevelt will be in danger OF
losing this election. Whatever the
tide is that keeps him even in Cock
County would lose him Indiana. Ohio,
Michigan and other States that he
needs in order to win. Is Cook Coun-
ty . $3.50 proposition? Maybe the
Literary Digest editors will be able
to tell us, as they are reported to be
planning to send 500. 900 ballots this
week into Cook County. ~
(Copyright, 1850