Evening star., 1936-10-24

Will this be another "fiu" Winter?
Spurred by many inquiries from all
parts of the country, the Public Health
Service has conducted a futile hunt for
a lurking epidemic anywhere in the
United States which might expand with
explosive violence with cold weather.
One of the chief characteristics of in
fluenza is the suddenness of its outbreak
and the rapidity with which it spreads
over large area. The history of the
malady during the past IT years, how
ever, shows that there usually has been
some focus from which it has spread
and where it has been manifested by
an excess death and sickness rate some
months before.
Taking the country as whole, the
Public Health Services statistical report
shows, the incidence of influenza since
last May has been approximately the
same as last year when there was mild
epidemic during the Winter. When the
country is split up into nine geographical
districts it is shown that in seven OF
them the prevalence of the malady has
not been significantly different from
that Of last Summer. The remaining
two, the east south central and the west
south central areas, show a continued
mortality somewhat above normal.
Perhaps the most significant increase
was found in California, where 1t at
tracted considerable attention because OF
the deaths of a number of notable ndi-
viduals. The Public Health Service re-
ports show that during the five weeks
from May 81 to July California re-
ported an excess of more than 1000 cases,
but the malady evidently was OF low
order of virulence since the death rate
went up very little. Since July Cali
fornia's flu rate has been approximately
normal.
THAT an epidemic of influenza may
occur this Winter is possible" says the
Public Health Service report, but NOR
tality from influenza does not indicate
that such an epidemic is in progress In
any section of the country at the present
time"
Little reliable data for prediction can
be obtained from the history OF past
epidemics, the Public Health Service
points out. There have been II OF them
since the great outburst in 1919. Nor
tality in 95 cities scattered over the
United States shows that they have
varied in size from total excess NOR
tality rate of 993 per 100000 in the
Winter of 1919-1920 to 54 per 100000
in the Winter of 1934-35. They have
occurred most frequently in January
and February.
The statistical reports show that Varl-
Gus sections of the country are by no
means equally affected during the course
of such an epidemic. In the epidemic OF
1890, for example, the excess mortality
from influenza and pneumonia in the
mountain States was almost twice whak
it was in the Middle Atlantic area. IN
some of the smaller outbursts large areas
have entirely escaped. -
"It is characteristic OF influenza cpl
denies" says the Public Heakh Service
report that they. originate IN one sec
tion Of the country and spread to ada
cent areas. OF the II epidemics since
1919. two have started on the east coast,
two in the east central region. three In
the west central and four IN the Pa
cific and mountain areas The direction
of spread also has varied In different epi-
damir That Of io2S-26 started on the
West Coast and took . southerly course
from wsst 10 east. while thai OF the
wintsr Of ie5i-s2 Travelled from 'hs