Evening star., 1936-04-05
Far East War Held Unlikely
Despite Incidents on Border
Soviet Army Rated Too Powerful for
Japan to Risk Strife at Present;
Various Motives Cited.

seems that war Is almost inevitable in
the near future. On one side Japan.
impelled by the motives I have de-
scribed, on the other the U. S. S. r.,
firmly determined to resist Japanese
aggression.
This is a gloomy picture and 1t
might seem that the risks Of war out
weigh the hopes of peace. but there
are other factors to be considered.
First of all, there is the Red Army.
Even the most reckless of Japanese
militarists must face facts, and 1t is
ridiculous to suppose that the jap
anese intelligence service Is not aware
of the colossal strength Of the Soviet
military establishment in the Far
East.
Saw Two Camps Necessary.
Three years ago the vice commissar
of war, Tukhachevsky. who is re-
garded by the French general staff as
one of the leading strategists Of Eu-
rope, and who will probably be field
commander of the Red Army in event
of war. said bluntly that, owing to the
weakness Of Soviet transport and the
vast extent of Soviet territory. 1t was
necessary to increase the Red Army
in order to form two great camps. or
permanent military establishments,
as soldiers would express it. at the
points of danger. The danger points
are the maritime provinces of the Far
East and the Northwestern Ukraine.
estimate that at present the U. S.
S. r. has fully half a million soldiers
in its Western establishment on a
curve from Kiev to Dvinsk. In the
Far East the permanent forces must
total 0.000 nowadays, amply equip
ped with supplies and munitions OF
modern war. AS far back as the
Spring of 1888 I saw a list of Soviet
cargoes that we're passing through
the Port of Constantinople at an aver
age rate of 5000 tons a week. They
were invoiced as salt and consigned
to Vladivostok, about which there is
nothing further to be said. That was
three full years ago. and since then
the Trans Siberian Railroad has been
double tracked and the new North
Baikal line to the Okhotsk Sea Is
virtually completed.
1t is difficult to speak definitely
about military affairs, especially in the
case of the Red Army, which knows
how to hide its secrets, but I venture
to state that the Soviet Far Eastern
Army has not only all the supplies Of
food, guns and munitions. tanks, oil,
fodder. airplanes, gas and other re-
uuirements of modern war. but has
enough of them for six months. OF
this the Japanese are well aware.
Will Not Attack Japan.
1t may be accepted as an axiom that
the Soviet Union will not fight unless
it has to- I mean that it will not at
tack Japan. Therefore, in the final
issue, the question Of war or peace
rests with the Japanese themselves,
and it is hard to conceive how any SOL
diers, however arrogant and reckless,
can attempt a war against so strong a
power as U. S. S. r. in present condi-
tionS.
The Japanese have occupied a great
and hostile territory. True, most Of
the inhabitants are peaceful Chinese
coolies from the South, but there are
still the Manchus, a bold and warlike
people. who do not love the japanese
invaders. The japanese occupation
Of Manchoukou and inner Mongolia
is far from consolidated. 1t is also
far from the sea. In other words,
Japan has already bitten of one
mighty big mouthful, which is still
undigested. To add to that. war
against the U. S. S. r. would appear
the height of folly or an act Of des-
peration.
Nevertheless, there Is always the
thought-so present in the mind of the
French general staff today-that to-
morrow the potential enemy" will
be stronger. that it is better to strike
now than wait. To that can only
answer not now, but yesterday, and
yesterday is past The japanese have
waited too long. and their strategists
must know it. Therefore, despite these
frontier incidents, I consider war un-
likely, unless the internal situation Of
Japan Is worse than generally sup
posed
tCopyright, 1885. by the North American
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