Evening star., 1936-09-08

TenecLS CreQQ sksN'''a
that will reach David Lawrence
climax with Re
publican Congress in 1898 is the real
question. My own feeling is that the
tide is not strong enough as yet In
these Western States to lose for Mr..
Roosevelt the electoral votes of this
region, though realize that visited
the Rocky Mountain and Pacific
Coast sections much earlier than
have ever before in presidential cam
paign years.
1t is characteristic of the Far West
and the Rocky Mountain States that
they do not get the waves of opinion
held in the East until months and
months after controversies have
reached their heights in the East.
Perhaps the difference in time and
the distance may account somewhat
for it, but even economic waves do not
touch the Pacific Coast as quickly as
they do the Middle West or the East
Significantly enough. did not find
single Western State in which the
Republicans privately conceded that
they were beaten. They would always
admit that If the election were held
today they might lose out, but they had
definite convictions about the possible
outcome in November.
G. o. P. Hopeful of Breaks.
Upon analysis I found that the Re-
publican leaders, talking off the record,
were depending either on Lemke-
Coughlin votes or Townsend votes or
the split up in the Democratic party
due to State fights. But they had also
an abiding confidence that a tide
would begin to roll by October which
would swing their States into the Re-
publican column by narrow margins.
On the Democratic side found
considerably more uneasiness than I
expected Thus one Democratic chief
tain in Western State told me early
IN July that he expected Roosevelt to
carry that State by $4,000 as against
a 1882 majority of about 10000, but
when I returned to the same State in
August my same informant told me he
thought the State would be rather
'close" and by that he meant 1000 or
5000 either way.
What had happened in the interim?
The lines were beginning to crystalize
in local primary contests and this re-
vealed the reaction of voters that was
not possible to determine before.
found a considerable interest in
the informal polls almost every
where, such as those taken by the
American Institute of Public Opinion
and the Literary Digest, but some
how these polls do not explain the
trends and the reasons for the shifts
in the sample ballots. This can be
ascertained only by talking to the
well-informed men on both sides who
are themselves canvassing voters all
the time through their organizations.
A reporter who can gain the con-
fidence of these leaders and who is
conscientious in reporting objectively
what he finds will discover in the
present trends much that the polls
cannot in the very nature of things
reveal. For often the contest in a
State is between groups Of voters or
between different sections of the
same State.
Politics Not Hot in West.
derived the general impression
that politics Is not quite as hot in
the Far West as in the Middle West
or East, that the anti Roosevelt SEN
timent of the Rocky Mountains and
Pacific Coast regions is by no means
as intense as in the East and that
Landon's campaign has hardly begun
to register one way or the other in
these Western States, with the pos
sible exception of Colorado.
So far as issues are concerned,
the argument about change in the
form of government has penetrated
only to the business classes and not
as definitely even among those
groups in the Far West as in the
Middle West or West. Landon's
speech at Middlesex, Pa, therefore,
meant very little to the Far West.
Had he given bill of particulars
and discussed the fundamental eva
sions of the Constitution through
such laws as the N. R. A., which
was declared invalid by a vote Of all
nine justices of the Supreme Court,
there might have been a better un-
derstanding Of his theme.
The speech at Chautauqua about
the teachers oaths again touched
only q few interested groups who
know the implications Of the contro-
versy.
Read Debt Address.
The best address LAndon has
made so far was his speech at
Buffalo on Government finances and
debt, which was widely read and
made q good impression. On the
other hand, Landon's radio delivery
Is not as effective as that Of Mr..
Roosevelt The Presidents fireside
talk Sunday night was an excellent
example of effective campaigning and
1t will help Mr.. Roosevelt in the
West.
The campaign is yet ahead of us.
The lines are somewhat set in come
Of the Western States but the real
battle-ground appears to be the Middle
West and the East. For while there
are some States that will 60 for
Landon out of the 13 that I visited,
the majority of them will not, ac-
cording to present indications. !
plan to check with well-informed
, persons again in October before
making. q final summary.