Evening star., 1936-08-02
100000 VOTE SWITCH
WOULD GUST ROOSEVELT
Sullivan Lists States Barely Won by
President in 1932-'Young Voters
Seen Key to Outcome.

| would put ONO IN the Republican
column. And $1,000 votes is a small
number In a State in which the total
lin 1882 was 2,593,468, In other
words. switch in Ohio of about 11a
per cent would put Ohio in the Re-
publican column.
In Massachusetts,, the needed
switch would be about 2 per cent. in
Michigan per cent, in New York
about 612 per cent and so on.
Those would be comparatively small
switches. 1t seems safe to say
though this is a departure from figures
into surmise-that throughout the
country the switch from Democrat to
Republican, from voting for Mr..
'2oosevelt in 1882 to voting against
him this year will be materially larger
than 7 per cent
In the list above I have named
only the minimum number Of States
necessary to give the Republicans a
bare majority Of the electoral college.
There are other States which a COM
paratively small switch from 1882
would carry into the Republican COL
umn-the large State of Illinois, for
example-and Illinois Is the home
State Of Republican Vice Presidential
Candidate Frank Knox.
Switched Votes.
Every observer agrees that the
switch of votes this year, from Demo-
crat to Republican, Is going to be
considerable. There are the Repub-
licans who voted for Mr.. Roosevelt
In 1882 but this year will be back in
their accustomed party. And there
are the Democrats who voted for Mr..
Roosevelt in 1882 who. indeed. voted
Democratic all their lives-but who
this year will vote Republican.
The number Of Democrats who will
vote for Gov. Jandon-the disgusted-
with the New Deal DemocraTs-is
larger. I think, than is commonly
estimated. In Maryland, when last
Spring Col Henry Breckenridge ran
against Mr. Roosevelt for the Demo-
cratic presidential nomination. and
ran merely to give dissenting Demo-
Gratis chance to express themselves,
he got 1880 votes to Mr.. Roosevelt's
100,269. That is, Mr.. Roosevelt lost
nearly one out Of every six Democratic
votes. OF course, no one can be sure
that every Democrat who last Spring
voted against Mr. Roosevelt for the
presidential nomination will, in No.
vember, vote against him in the elec-
ton. But this Maryland record, and
other signs in other States, suggest
that, at the least, something like
Democrat in every 10 or II will next
Fail vote Republican. A switch that
large would defeat Mr. Roosevelt, and
defeat him seriously.
Some one in Florida has sent me
clipping from the Orlando Evening
Sentinel. I know only what the
clipping tells. 1t gives the result OF
the Florida Democratic primary. For
the Democratic presidential nomina-
ton Mr.. Roosevelt got 42,e06 votes.
Apparently he was opposed by a man
described as Joseph A. Coutremarsh
of Lebanon, N. H." This New Eng
land Democrat got 1882 votes. That
is. Mr.. Roosevelt lost more than l
vote out of 10 to a man who GER
tainly cannot be widely known. 1t
looks as If there are a good many
anti Roosevelt Democrats in Florida.
There are persons familiar with that
State who say Mr.. Roosevelt may lose
it In November. They say, among
other reasons that South Florida is
against him because he began the ILL
fated Florida ship canal-and North
Florida Is against him because he
dropped it.
THE Unknown Voter"
A careful statistician of my ac-
quaintance estimates that the total
number of persons qualified to regis
ter and vote for President this year is
100000. That is an astonishing
figure The total actual vote in 1882,
the largest we ever had, was 1885,
522. Before that. in 1928, the total
vote was 36,879.414.
Apparently there must be about
Is. .00O, 900 to 80, 000, 900 people who do
not ordinarily vote. What about these
unknown voters" the stay-at-homes?
In the present year, will large num-
Der Of them come out? Assuming they
come out, which candidate are they
likely to vote for? What is their
prevailing attitude and temperament?
Is the unknown voter" the one who
usually stays at home but may vots
this years. he a radical? Or is he
minded person who does
not get stirred up enough to vote until
there is really something stirring in
the air?
The same statistician estimates the
number of young voters" this year.
voters who were not of age in 1882, as
100000 What about these young
voters"-which of the candidates will
they tend to prefer?