Evening star., 1936-07-26
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

1T IS generally agreed that popular
interest in the present campaign
is high. 1t is said that never be-
= fore was there such intent interest.
I do not dispute the assertion-though
I am suspicious Of all sweeping gen.
civilizations, I think it possible that
popular interest was as high In 1912,
when Democratic Woodrow Wilson,
Progressive Theodore Roosevelt and
Republican william H. Taft contended
in what Teddy" called "Armageddon";;
and in 1895 when Democratic william
Jennings Bryan tough for free silver
against Republican william Mckinley
for gold, with an independent gold"
Democratic ticket helping to make the
pot boil high.
To one generalization accede. The
issues in this campaign, If the people
come to grasp them. are more vital
than in any preceding campaign ex-
cept the Lincoln ones. They are great
enough to justify as much interest as
attended the founding of the American
Republic, for today's issues are largely
identical with those early ones.
But no mater about comparisons.
Let us agree that popular interest is ex-
ceptionally high in the present cam
paign, and probably will become
higher. This interest includes, as al
ways, interest in forecasts and proba-
bilities. The forecasts, including the
straw polls, seem, thus far to point
toward declining support for the New
Deal, a decline which. if it continues,
would defeat Mr.. Roosevelt in Novem-
ber.
Sees Polls Important.
In the midst of all this, it occurs to
me to see what can be done if We try
to make out the most favorable case
possible for the Democrats. To do
that I should dismiss the straw polls.
I hasten to say I dismiss them here
for arguments sake only. Actually, I
take the informal polls most seriously
In the case of the Literary Digest
they have again and again proved
themselves to be accurate barometers.
The institute of Public Opinion poll
probably is equally accurate; it has not
yet, think, been going long enough
to have its results checked by an
actual election, as the Literary Digest
polls frequently have.
To make out the most favorable
case for the Democrats. I should turn
away from the straw polls and take q
wholly different approach. This con-
sists of considering an election in
terms Of political tides, trends shown
by preceding elections. 1t is method
that some of the erudite have long
experimental with, though the pub
lie knows little of it. DR.. Nicholas
Murray Butler, whose information
and experience are extraordinary
/ used to interpret coming presidential
elections in terms of tides shown BY
preceding congressional elections Ont
statistician I know thinks the tide
method of forecasting is infallible
assuming the data is handled cor.
rectly.
Elections to House.
For simplicity (and also because
this is a sound way, let us omit
presidential elections, which com.
only once in every four years. Le
us look at the tide as reflected BY
elections to the lower House OF Con.
gress These are a good index be.
cause they come every two years ane
because they cover the whole coun.
try-the entire membership Of tn,
House is elected every two years.
Looking at the political tide ir
terms of members elected to The
House, the Democrats were at a low
tide in 1928. In that year they
elected only 165 members of the
House (out of total of 435; there
were 268 Republicans and 3 belong.
ing to third parties). Put this low.
tide Democratic figure down:
1928, Democrats elected ICE
| Immediately, the tide turned, be.
gan to run in favor of the Democrats
Observe the growth of their mem.