Evening star., 1936-07-12

now beginning, the starting point
is the record of the election Of
L 1882. set it down:
Democrat, Roosevelt 22,52l SIS
Republican, Hoover l5,S57,537
Democrat, Roosevelt, majority 1888
Concede that these figures of 1882
are no sure guide to the figures Of
next November The changes in con-
ditions are many. Remember that
1892 was an utterly abnormal year
the Democratic vote was abnormally
large, the Republican abnormally
small. The Democrats cannot pos
sibly expect. this year, any such ma
jority as their 1882 one-no Demo-
cratic leader has any such notion.
Chairman Farley says something or
other about carrying 40 States, but
that is for public consumption.
The votes of both parties in 1882
were abnormal. Let us inquire, then,
what Is normal" Let us seek 1t by
looking at the average vote in the
last five presidential elections Q9l6
to 1892, inclusive). For the Repub-
licans the average was 1858 ,033. For
the Democrats, the average in the
same five elections was 12.840. .l03. The
discrepancy in favor of the Republic
ans is more marked If We omit the
Democratic landslide year of 1882,
which every one will agree was un-
usual. Omitting that, and consider
ing the four elections preceding 1882,
the average Republican vote was l5,-
45l, BOT: and the average Democratic
vote, l0,419,747. The ratio (for the
four elections preceding 1882 was
about TO 2 in favor of the Repub-
licans.
Any way you look at the figures
over any recent period. even going
back as far as the Civil War, they
justify the saying. common in poll
tics, that America Is a Republican
country"
1t Has Happened Before.
Is it within possibility for the Re-
publicans this year to overcome that
immense Democratic majority of g.
563, ,988 (call it six and one-half mil
lions) in 1882?
Most certainly it is. Overturns as
great as this have happened before.
One happened very recently indeed
1t happened in the four years between
1928 and 1882. The Republican victory
in 1928 was practically as overwhelm-
ing as the Democratic victory four
years later, in 1882.
/ Let us look at the figures for that
1928 election; they look much like
the figures of 1s32-except the ma
| jority is the other way. The figures
for 1928 were:
Hoover, Republican q, ,3s2 1870
| Smith, Democrat l5,0l6,4
In both cases. 1928 and 1892, the
majority was much the same, upward
Of 5000. .000-with the difference that
in 1928 the majority was Republican
in 1882 it was Democratic. If that
switch could occur within one period
OF four years. from 1928 to 1882. it
could occur in another four years,
from 1882 to 1896.
But enough about past perform
ances. Let us concede that 1886 is
abnormal: concede there are this year
( factors that are unusual and particu-
/ larly battling to estimate. Neverthe-
! less, these new conditions do not
affect the central fact, which is, that
1t Is possible for the country this year
to make as striking a swing. toward
the Republicans as in 1882 1t made
toward the Democrats.
What the Republicans Need.
In approaching this years election
let US. for the sake Of simplicity, con-
slider 1t in terms of what the Repub-
licans need in order to win. The Re-
publican need is to overcome the
Democrats 1892 majority of six and a
half millions. Bear in mind, that to
overcome an adverse majority Of six
and a half millions the Republicans
do not need that many votes They
need, speaking broadly. only half as
many. That is, II three and quarter
millions who voted Democratic in
1882 will this year vote Republican,
the Republicans win. A switched
vote counts double
For getting three and a quarter
million votes more than in 1882 the
Republicans have two main reliances
One is the Republicans who in 1882
voted for Mr.. Roosevelt but who this
year will return to their party. The
other Is the anti-Roosevelt Dem
ocrats-the Democrats who in 1882
voted with their party as usual but
who this year will vote against Mr.
Roosevelt. Will the sum of these two
groups make three and a quarter mill
lions?
Republicans Who Return.
The Republicans who in 1882 voted
for Mr.. Roosevelt can be- classified
roughly in three groups:
(a) wet" Republicans offended by
their party's support and enforcement;
of national prohibition Most of these
Republicans should this year come
back. for national prohibition Is nc
longer an issue.
(b) Farm Republicans-Republicar
farmers, mainly in the Middle West
who had been accustomed to voting
Republican but who, during the 1920's
saw their demands for relief rejected
by three Republican Presidents anc
six Republican Congresses. Will thest
farm Republicans this year comI
back? I venture no answer-later ir
the campaign we may be able to tell
/ (c) Republicans who were discour'
aged by the depression. The depres
sion is over; with it has passed alst
the fear and the other emotions tina
accompanied it. Many Of this class o.
Republicans should this year CONF
back; most of them are conservatives
and hardly any conservative will vot'