Henderson daily dispatch., 1936-06-05
HENDERSON, IN. CO. DAILY DISPATCH FRIDAY, JUNE s. 1886

probably get a plurality in the vot-
ing east of Raleigh. Numerous obser-
vers estimate that Graham has taken
fully 10000 votes away from McDon-
aid within the last three weeks, as
well as some away from Hoey.
3. The belief that Hoey's strength of
from 10000 to $4,000 has stood with
him almost solidly throughout the
campaign unaffected by the efforts
of either Graham or Mcdonald to
take them away from him, and the
belief that Hoeys admittedly effici-
ent organization can be depended up
on to pick up any losses and make
some gains during the last week Of
the campaign.
4. The fact that the newspaper poll
does not take into consideration the
effects of organization and that past
experience shows that the candidates
with strong organizations for getting
the voters to the polls on the day of
the election can usually increase their
votes by about Is per cent. Organiza-
tion is also credited with being able
to secure heavy last-minute desertions
from opposing candidates.
5. The conviction that both Hoey
and Graham have strong and effec-
tive organizations reaching into every
county and precinct and that McDon-
aid is the most poorly organized of
the three, with the result that both
Graham and Hoey, but especially
Graham, has made very heavy inroads
into McDonald's following, while the
Hoey managers have been able to pre-
vent any dissertations to either Nc
Donald or Graham and have picked
up some votes from Mcdonald.
| 6. The belief that the bulk of the
,, Mcdonald strength has consisted of
those who are displaced and disgrunt-
led with the present State government
those who have believed they would
have a chance to be appointed to
State obs if Mcdonald should be nom
mated and elected governor and those
known as "band wagon jumpers" who
have followed him because they
thought he was in the lead.
Z. The conviction that many of
those who have been for Mcdonald
in the hope of getting jobs or he
cause they thought he would be nomi-
mated have at last decided that he
| could not carry out all his promises
and that he has not been leading by
as big a margin as many have tho
ught, with the result that many have
been deserving him for either Hoey
or Graham.
When all of these factors are taken
into consideration, it is not such an
improbable or impossible thing to
reason that as many as $4,000 of those
who at first were inclined to follow
Mcdonald have deserted him for Hoey
or Graham, the "old timers" in poll
teal circles here maintain. AS a re-
suit, they are predicting that if 1885,
600 votes are cast in the primary Sat
urday, as now seems probable. Hoey
will get $4,000, Graham 100000, Nc
Donald 100000 and McRae 10000
Mcdonald Strength Exaggerated.
That the newspaper poll shows Nc
Donaldg's strenth as teing consider
ably greater than it really is at pre-
sent, is frankly conceded by the Nc
Donald managers. They are no longer
predicting that Mcdonald will win
! the nomination with a clear majority
over all the others, as they were some
four or five weeks ago and will be
pleased if he can stay in first place
and maintain lead of as much as
10000 votes over Hoey. For most of
the Mcdonald workers and support
,ers here who have been looking at
the trend of the campaign for the
past two weeks estimate that if 49,
600 votes are cast, Mcdonald will get
100000, Hoey $4,000, Graham 10000
and McRae about 10000 While they
agree that Graham has cut into their
strength materially, they insist he has
not cut into it enough to get into sec
ond place. They also maintain that
he has taken some votes from Hoey,
with the result that they do not think
Hoey will poll more than $4,000 votes
at the most, even though the poll now
gives him $4,000 votes.
The Graham managers maintain
that Sandy now has an excellent