Evening star., 1936-11-10
STARS, MEN AND ATOMS
Notebook of Science Progress in Field,
Laboratory and Study.
BY THOMAS r. HENRY,

The United States now has 10 per
cent deficit Of children.
This Is one of the findings Of DR.. o. Z.
Baker, Department Of Agriculture popu-
lation expert, In q study Of present popu-
lation trends Of the Nation.
The balance, DIR. Baker finds, was
reached about the year 1890 when the
number Of births was just about sufacient
to sustain the population without immi-
grafton. Since then the 10 per cent
deficit has developed.
The ratio of births TO the population
had been declining for q long time, DR..
Baker points out, but the drop was
sharply accentuated shortly after the
war and for the past 10 years the rate
has averaged more than Z per cent .
year.
This can only mean. he says, an aging
Nation, an eventual decrease Of popula-
ton. probably increased centralisation of
wealth, declining property values, great
changes in the way Of life Of the people,
and eventually very serious consequences.
For q long time q city birth rate made
quate TO hold the population stationary
was compensated for by an excess num-
Der Of rural births, although the rural
birth rate also was declining.
For 4 time this may mean, on the
whole, unparalleled productivity and ease
Of life, he explains, but this will be only
. temporary phenomenon. He sees some
hope of q change in q restored farm or
village family system, replacing. In part,
the individualistic economic system Of
urban life.
The decline in the American birth rate,
Dr. Baker points out has been in prog
ress for more than . century-and all
this time there has been Z correlation
between it and the Nations growing
urbanization.
Between 1900 and 1910 there were, it is
shown by the old census reports, about
g76 children under five years Of age for
every thousand women. In 1890 this
number had dropped TO S2S, but the
actual decline was concentrated In
Southern New England. where manufac-
turing was beginning to replace agricul-
ture as the chief means Of livelihood. By
lS4O the number had fallen to 835 and
the area Of decline, following closely the
factories, had spread to include most of
New York and New Jersey. BY 1880 the
number of children had dropped to TIA
per thousand women and large secondary
areas Of population decline were spread.
ing out from Baltimore and Philadelphia.
Twenty years later, with the great In
dustrial expansion which followed the
Civil War, the number for the Nation as
q whole had dropped to 635, In 1900 it
was down to 541, in 1920 to 4S6, and in
1880 to 4o7. For last year it was approxi-
mately $40.
The declining birth rate. Dr.. Baker
points out, Is . natural result Of urbani-
sation On the farm, ut least during past
generations, the economic unit was the
family. 1t cost the farm family little to
rear children. The larger the family the
easier 1t was to operate the farm. The
rearing of children involved. at the worst,
only . slight economic sacrifice.
In industry the economic unit Is the
individual The larger the family Of =
man on salary or day wages, the poorer.
~ q general rule, his economic position.
Consequently the harder 1t IL for him
To keep up with his neighbors. Often
the only way to augment the family
income II for the wife to work, and this.
per se, reduces the number OF births.
The actual maximum OF births In the
United States, without considering the
percentage in relation to the whole popu-
lation. was reached IN iS2i-appfoxi-
mately 3.00o. 200. In ls the births had