Evening star., 1936-06-28
SOARING PRICES
z. OF FOOD UNSEEN
Drought Not Expected to
Cause Material Change,
Experts Say. 49,
BY WILLIAM A. BELL.

BY WILLIAM A. BELL.
With the return of drought, the rob-
Der baron, to principal sources OF the
Nations food, Government economists
yesterday weighed the possibility of
higher living costs and said consumers
had little to fear.
Although still groggy from the wal
lops of successive dry spells and in the
grip of another of serious proportions,
the West probably will not be affected
to such a degree that its meat and
wheat products will 60 very much
higher on the retail price scale, Of
ficials said.
From the consumers standpoint,
meat prices, reacting to 1884 drought
shortages, reached their worst level in
the late Summer and early Fall OF 1885.
Agriculture Department men who study
price possibilities in relation to supplies
and the wather, indicated belief that
the cost of eating will not be as high
as of that time, come what may.
Speak Conservatively.
The terrific 1884 drought, worst
within the memory of living man,
taught officialdom to be guarded in its
predictions, since the effects of the
calamity surpassed the most pesSimist1c
dreams. With this lesson in mind,
economists were speaking conserva-
lively, therefore, in their estimates OF
the food price situation.
Louis H. Bean, economic adviser to
the Agricultural Adjustment Admins
tration, said he did not foresee any
noticeable rise in the price of roast
beef, lamb chops, veal, bacon, ham, etc.
For one thing, he said, the price rise
produced by the emergency 'liquida-
ton" of live stock in 1884, when the
Government bought and slaughtered
nearly 100000 head of cattle and
more than 100000 sheep, has run its
course Farm stocks of animals are
being rebuilt. Feed supplies are more
or less bountiful.
Pork Prices Due to Fall.
Another reason for Beans predic-
ton is that pork prices are due to fall.
The current drought has not affected
the corn supply and the market for
pork products is receptive.
The pork price situation, it was ex-
planned, bears directly on the cost of
other meats, an increasing supply of
hogs tending to "dampen" any up
ward tendency of beef and mutton
prices. The competition between the
tvo types of meat products explains
this economic probability. A house
wife would increase the amount of
bacon, ham and pork chops in her
family's diet at the expense of veal,
beef steak or lamb, if the latter cost
a great deal more.
If the corn crop is dangerously
damaged, however, an entirely differ
ent picture might result Thus far
Iowa, Nebraska and other principal
corn States have escaped the worst |
drought.
"As long as corn is not affected.
hogs are not affected" Bean said.
Feed Shortage May Occur.
But if the hot-lunged dragon crawls |
down from Montana and the Dakotas, |
where it is now on the rampage, and
strikes the rich corn areas next
month, when the ears are taSseling-
the crucial stage-a feed shortage |
may occur and up will go the price |
of pork.
Retail meat prices, in terms of |
the indices prepared by agricultural
economists are now about 90, COM
pared to their post drought peak Of |
102 in September, 1885. This COM
pares with an index of 100 during the |
1923-25 period and 63 in 1888, prior
to the drought, and to artificial crop !
reduction via the A. A. A. method. |
Despite the prevailing drought, they
are not expected to equal the 1885
crest or to surpass, by much, at any
rate, the current index.
AS for bread prices: they were not
greatly boosted by the, 1884 calamity
and should vary little. in months to
come. economists ssjS Wheat prices,
before the presentIg1ag set in,
were expected to decFne during the
next six months or year. The Spring
wheat crop has been damaged ma
terially in recent weeks and is
threatened further. Substantial losses
Of wheat would mean that cereal
products will stay in about the same
price range instead Of taking the ex-
pected drop, officials declared.