The Key West citizen. [volume] (Key West, Fla.) 1879-current, 1936-10-20

Politics holds just about all the
headlines now. The great day,
November 8, is just ahead. and the
candidates are making their big
drives, the editorial writers are
wearing out typewriter ribbons,
the poll makers are busy "a hours
q day, and the political analysts
are growing haggard seeking to
forecast the winner.
1t has been many year since
political analysis was so difficult
or SO hazardous. Reason for
that is that this year great num-
Der of what are termed political
inealculables" have arisen. Those
incalculables may make past pre-
cedents worthless.
For example, the old party lines
may not have been broken. but
they certainly have been badly
bent. Outside of the South which
is still overwhelmingly Democratic,
and New England which is strong
~ Republican, matters are chaotic
in the extreme. 1t used to be that
the Republican candidate, even in
close elections, could count on the
far western states, with almost alb
solute certainty. Today the Pa
cific Coast states, along with sew
eral bordering states, are general
ly conceded to Mr.. Roosevelt by
unprecedented observers.
1t also used to be that Demo-
cratic candidetes-dismissing cam
paigns, such as those of 1920 and
1924, in which the Republicans
had the election cinched even be-
fore the nominations-could count
on carrying some the big seaboard
industrial states. Today most
polls show Roosevelt trailing in
such states, and some think that
he has better chance to carry
Pennsylvania, which has not cast
its electoral vote for a Democrat
in generations, than New York or
New Jersey.
Both Mr.. Roosevelt and Mr..
Landon are seek 'ng to appeal to
voters in all camps, are trying to
make their campaigns as non-par-
tisan as possible SO far as old-time
party divisions are concerned. That
is also true of the platforms-the
cd Democratic plea for states
rights, ETC., has been pretty well
dropped, and the Republicans, who
once stood for more centralized
government, are now standing for
less centralized government.
One of the biggest 'incalcul-
ables" is. How many voters have
shifted their party allegiance in
the last few years? In 1892, a
number of leading Republicans
deserted Hoover and came out for
Landon-and everyone is speculat
ing as to how many followers they
can turn against the New Deal.
Most aggressive Democratic an
ti-New Dealer is Al Smith-it is
felt in some quarters that his
speeches denouncing the Admins
tration may shift a vast number
of votes. Ex-senator Reed is an
other Democrat whose speeches op-
posing Roosevelt are more bitter
even than those of the Republi-
cans. A considerable list of other
Jeffersonian Democrats who are
following suit could be made.
On the other hand, not all of the
conservative Democrats have left
the New Deal. Senator Glass,
who is as big a figure as we have
in national politics, today, has an
bounced that he will support
Roosevelt, even. though he is OPP
posed to most Administration poll
cies. Reasons: He feels that if
Roosevelt is reelected. Democratic
Senator's will reassert their indie
pendenee, will not have to uncrit-
'ically obey White House orders,
because the President cannot run
again. Another Jeffersonian
Democrat who will speak for the
President is Secretary of State
Hull, a cabinet member who has
constantly grown in prestige ever
since his appointment.
However, it is beyond argument
that the detection of old-line
Democrats from New Deal ranks
is worrying the heals of the par
tY. So is the detection of old-line