Evening star., 1936-04-19

of the eye reveals that prevailingly
the Republican vote has been mate
rally greater than the Democratic.
The ratio has been about S to in
favor of the Republicans. In exact
figures the average Republican vote
has been Is ,553 ,033. the average Demo-
cratic vote 12,840,103.
The discrepancy is more marked If
We omit the Democratic landslide
year of 1882, which every one would
agree was abnormal Omitting that,
and considering the four elections pre-
ceding 1882, the average Republican
vote was 15.415, ,907, the average DEM
ocratic vote 10,419,747. The ratio
(for the four elections preceding 1882
was about to 2 in favor of the Re-
pubhcans.
1882 Majority Abnormal.
One further point is material: The
immense majority of Mr.. Roosevelt
and the Democrats in 1926 =
98S-was abnormal. But it was only
abnormal for the Democrats. The
Republicans have twice had larger ma
jorities. Republican Coolidge had a
larger majority over Democrat Davis
in 1924. So also in 1920 Republican
Harding had larger majority over
Democrat Cox.
This has a bearing on next Novem-
bers election. The point it strongly
suggests is that, as the saying goes.
America is q Republican country"
it suggests that Mr.. Roosevelt's i'm
mense majority in 1932-the margin
which made that ma majority-consisted
Of votes which normally are Repub-
hcan. Hence the problem of the Re-
publicans in November is to get back
those Republicans-or to find equiva-
lents for them.
Past performances-that Is, past
performances preceding 1932-are not
infallibly helpful in looking forward to
next November's election. 1t Is the
1882 election which really counts. 1t
is the 1882 election from which we
can best start to consider the 1886
one. Let US see just how great was
Roosevelt's Democratic victory in that
year.
Democrat. Roosevelt 22,521,5
Republican, Hoover 1885, ,537
Roosevelt majority---. $3.50 ,ass
To wipe out that majority is the
job of the Republicans this year. 1t
looks large-6, ,563 1888. But majorities
| Of that size have been switched in
four years. In 1926 Mr.. Hoover's Re-
publican majority over ex-Gov. Smith
was almost as large.
That is. the Republican majority in
! 1928 was over 100000 Then, in four
years, there was a switch to a Demo-
cratic majority of over 100000
Theoretically, at least, II that switch
could occur in one period of four
years, from 1928 to 1882, it could occur
again, in the opposite direction, in
another period of four years, from
1892 to 1886.
Will Republicans Repeat.
As the most convenient approach to
| figuring on next November's election.
begins with the Republican vote of
1882. 1t was 15,s57,537 $50 close to
10000, 900 that we can speak of it as
that. With that as a starting point,
let us ask whether the Republicans
can hold all this vote in 1896. I
mean not an equivalent vote, but
exactly the same vote. the same indi-
vidual voters. In other words, will
every person who voted the Republic
an ticket in 1882 (who Is still living)
again vote the Republican ticket in
1886?
Certainly it would seem so. That
Republican vote in 1882 must have
been the lowest possible minimum.
Anybody who, under the conditions
of 1892, with depression close to its
worst, voted for Mr.. Hoover and the
Republican ticket, must be rock
ribbed Republican, indeed. Probably
the reader can find out for himself,
by inquiring among his own ac-
quaintances, whether there is any
one who in 1882 voted the Republic
an ticket, but in 1886 will not Do
any of the recent informal polls throw
any light on this-on whether any
material number of voters who in
1882 voted Republican will in 1886
vote Democratic? Confessedly it is
a difficult thing to be sure about. But
1t really seems fair to assume the
Republicans next November can count
on holding those close to 16,000,000
votes of 1892.
Assuming the Republicans hold
their 1892 vote, where do they go
from there? From what sources will
they get the additional votes neces-
sary to defeat Mr.. Roosevelt next
November?
The difference, the majority that
Mr.. Roosevelt had In 1882, was