Evening star., 1936-08-09
Two Chief Factors i'm
the Campaign.
BY OWEN L. SCOTT.

them.
Those factors are: First, the state of
general business. Time is too short to
make any moves that could Importantly
change the trend already set.
Second, the repercussions from the
drought. Nature has that situation in
hand. Government is able to do little
more than offer relief and wait to see
what effect disaster has on sentiment.
Business almost certainly will be active
through the remainder of this year. The
question bothering the experts seems to
be whether or not the present upturn
will develop into boom of the sort
that is difficult to control.
Translated into political terms: Voters
are slow to favor change of admins
tration in the midst of period of busi-
ness improvement. They are even less
interested during such q period in pana-
ceas and in wild-eyed schemes for pro-
ducing the millennium. The party in
power needs only to point to the trend
and ask: Why take a chance on upset.
ting plans that are working?
~ X
The country will hear that question
over and over again during the next three
months. The fact that 1t can be asked,
on the basis of present conditions, ex-
plains the indifference with which the
antics of Father Coughlin, the Rev.
Gerald Smith and Dr. Francis E. Town
send are viewed by the politicians in
power.
The glimpse of better times makes
people less susceptible to the wiles of the
political patent medicine artists. Evil
dence Of that fact is found in the drub-
bings administered to candidates en-
tered in recent primaries by the Coughlin
and Townsend organizations.
All might appear well to Mr.. RooSe-
velt, under the circumstances, except for
the weather.
But weather has intervened to upset
all calculations in such politically inn
portant States as Iowa, Minnesota, 1lli-
nois, Indiana and Nebraska. as well as
the Dakotas and Montana.
William Allen White one of the mov-
ing spirits in the camp Of Gov Landon,
is credited with the observation that all
droughts are Democratic. His reason
ing is that bad luck makes people
bit more radical than they otherwise
would be-
President Roosevelt was told by some
OF his close advisers this past week that
he would be fooling himself if he ac-
cepted Editor Whites diagnosis.
They told him that the disaster to
crops in the Middle West politically
would cut into Democratic strength both
IN the cities and In the country. Farmers
are described as inclined to blame the
party in power for any trouble of any
sort. City people, in the past at least,
have blamed politicians for increases in
their living costs.
AS result Of this advice. the Presi-
dent decided to move ahead the time
for his trip into the drought districts.
+k
Democrats are found privately to be
thanking their lucky stars that the Su-
preme Court knocked out A. A A. pro-
duction controls last January in time
to relieve the National Government from
responsibility for financing any general
program Of crop reduction in 1896. II
agreements had been entered into to
curtail production OF specific crops this
year. the official embarrassment today
would have been acute. AS it Is both
parties are on record as favoring the
sort Of soil conservation program now
in force.
But drought. despite fast stepping by
President Roosevelt, remains as the most
disturbing present factor faced by the
Democrats.
They look for continued business i'm
provement to offset any important de-
fections growing out Of arguments about
subsidized scarcity and about Democratic
responsibility for the rising cost Of living.
What of that improvement? Is it
real? And is it likely to be sustained?
The Governments principal appraisers
who have no political axes to grind
are convinced that the present move in
business Is definitely in the direction
OF real recovery and that except for
seasonal set-backs, it Is due to continue
for many months.
Their views on the subject were def
mite enough to cause the Board of Gov
ernors Of the Federal Reserve System to
raise the reserve requirements Of banks
in order to put their new credit controls
In working order
But the Governments business fore.
casters are not guaranteeing q boom.
What they think they see is a combina-
ton OF circumstances working to pro-
duce greatly increased activity of type
that will give the country a powerful
boost out of the depression.
Goods are moving rapidly into con-
sumption. Profits are sharply higher
More people have more money to spend,
and, after sacrificing for several years,
are showing an inclination to spend it.
The result Is that production facilities
are taxed In some industries. There are
appearing shortages of skilled labor.
II
These developments are going along
with low interest rates and a plethora
OF money. People want and need better
housing. Mortgage money is available
IN large quantities. Ability and willing
ness to borrow is improved. Thus
home building boom can be in the max
ing. Utility companies report record
breaking consumption Of electric power.
Production facilities are taxed. With
new money as cheap as it is, the tempta-
ton is growing to borrow and build.
Railroad travel and freight business is
headed sharply upward. Years of neglect
nave resulted in rundown equipment.
Again there are signs of stirring activity.
Gov. Landon's principal hurdle in his
race for the presidency may grow out
OF the state of business in September
and October
He will center his attack on New Deal
spending as leading to the bankruptcy
OF the Nation. President Roosevelt in
tends to counter with the claim that Fed
eral SnendinC fllad @h> ra~ r~.,,1+;,,,