Evening star., 1936-02-29
TIME BRINGS A HARD WINTER.
And May Bring Others Cold Cycle Possibly Develop
ing Now-Weather Experts Cover Long Period Seeking
Reason for Cyclic Effects That Make Our Climate

actly normal. Again the fo-year
average is calculated, this time start
ing with 1902. Thus is obtained the
third point on his chart. And so on,
for as long as one cares TO carry out
the calculations.
Then the points above or below nor,
NAL are Joined by a line. If this line
remains for any number of years above.
the straight line which represents the
50-year normal, it indicates that there
is consistent excess of temperature.
II 1t remains below, 1t indicates a
consistent deficit of temperature. And
II the line consistently goes. up or
oown, 1t indicates an increasing or
decreasing temperature. BY using this
method the effects of a single excess
slVely hot or excessively cold II
months do not hide the general trend
During the warm period, now believed
70 have passed, there was some of the
coidest weather of the century. and
very likely, If we now al, entering a
cold period, there will be days, months
and years as hot as anything we have
known in the past.
Somewhat paradoxically, that Is a
characteristic of warm and cold
swings. The coldest weather is likely
10 come in the warm periods and the
hottest weather in the cold periods.
oucn extreme variations. however
have very little effect on the floating
mean. During a hot upswinp there
Will be more hot weather and during
a cold swing more cold weather Ono
cannot predict with any certainty that
the Winter of 1887 will be cold. but II
the present indications are sustained
the prediction of a cold Winter should
oe much better guess than the pre-
dlction Of very mild Winter. The
percentages would be all in favor Of
the pessimist, but in weather. as in
horse racing, percentage sometimes
goes haywire.
Inc same calculation of the floating
mean can be applied to any point in
tne United States for which there are
adequate observations. The "normaI
lne' Tor the continent, or for the
world, can be established by taking
all OF them into account. Apparently
tne factor responsible for the cycle is
worldwide in its effect. Just about
everything in weather has q world
wide reverberation.
HERE, then, is the first step in the
explanation of the present cold
Winter. There must be a succession
sof cold Winters to verify it. II there
Is such succession, it will be fairly
safe to assume that We are on the
downsWing Of the cycle. We are en-
tering one of the Winters Of the
century. Grandpa no longer will be
able to boast of the high snowdrifts
when he was boy out in Wisconsin.
Now for some Of Mr.. Kincer's spe-
ciflc evidence for these undulating
cycles. Back in 1778 Rev. Ezra Styles,
president Of Yale University, began
noting daily temperatures at New
Haven IN his diary. He continued the
self-appointed task faithfully for about
a year, when British troops invaded
the little; college town and, among.
other mean acts, smashed his ther-,
4A1SAAASSNis 44lLo WhS d lOSS III
those days. DR.. Styles couldn't get
another Immediately, but when he
could he went on just as before. His.
successors continued the task until,
more than century later, Weather
Bureau station was established at New.
Haven. So, for this New England city,
there is continuous daily temperature
rnnnrd tc A
record in North America.
Here is what the New Haven record
shows: Starting with 1901 the tenn
perature-especially the Winter tenn
perature-piled up cumulative excess,
for II years. Then there was down.
swing for 81 years, from 1918 to 1849;
for the next Is years the climate was
getting progressively warmer again:
in 1864 there was another reversal
and it got colder for nine years; then
it rose steadily for 10 years; then it
fell steadily for 20 years; then, in
1913, it started rising again, and has
been going up ever since, until this
year. There may be even a.more pro-.
found cycle shown in the figures, for
the peaks and depressions of the
curves were not always at the same
heights. There is an outstanding re-
cession in the curve from a maximum
in 1912 to a minimum in 1873, a.
period of about so years; then pro-
nounced rise up to the present.
Temperature records for Washing
ton begin with the year 1917. From
that period on they can be compared,
Continued on Third Page)