The Daily Alaska empire., 1936-03-16
Presidential Years.

(New York Times)
 It is too early Presidential year to talk of the probably effect of the political campaign on business That discussion rarely begins until candidates have been at the conventions and the campaign is defined. Even in such year at 1896, when the political battle subsequently brought trade almost to a halt financial markets advanced considerably dur ing January and February; the great success of the Governments popular providing the stimulus. On the present occasion, when selection of Presidential candidates is still three months away and when the campaigns precise character is still matter of con- lecture the main issues which the contest will be based stand out pretty clearly But 1t IS the fact of vigorous forward movement of trade and financial markets continuing when seasonal and political influences might have made some reaction logical enough which has revived discussion here and there as to whether the Presidential campaign will or will not impede continuance of recovery.
 The tradition which once had much vogue. that Presidential years are always and necessarily bad for business is not altogether in line With experience During the ten Presidential campaigns Of the forty past years the record shows that only four were accompanied by reactionary trade Those 1896 with it's battle free-silver coinage; 1900, when business declined, not because of expectation that Bryans second candidacy would succeed, but because a highly speculative trade expansion checked through other circumstances; 1908 which immediate y followed severe Wall Street panic and 1920 when wildly inflated commodity prices suddenly collapsed
 As against these four bad Presidential years, there six in which business recovery was un- miStakabe In 1904, trade distinctly reVlVng rom the setback of 1903 Tn 1912 although change of party control made certain by the Roosevelt bolt, the sustained revival since the panic of 1907 occurred Business activity under the stimulus, at its height in 1916 A forward movement in trade and in- dustry began in the middle of 1924. The election of 1928 occurred with the great boom of the period in full swing It is a well-estabished fact that the
 How point" of the depression period reached and passed in the Spring of 1882 that gradual but contnu ous recovery ensued until just before election.
 Probably the tradition of necessarily pad business in Presidential years had it's origin in the twenty year period prior to 1896 when electoral chances often evenly divided and when the campaign, raging bitterly the tariff issue the danger if "unrepentant South should win invariably unsettled ways possible result of the election strange that until the vote taken business men when confident of the longer future should have moved slowly with their plans for trade and manufacture Usually there sigh of relief in business circles when election day past; this apt to be if the low-tarff candidate had People least knew what to be expected
 We have that, in the four bad trade years" out of the ten past presidential years, the business reaction resulted more often from in- herent in the business situation itself than ap- course of business during the campaign of 1886 may be similarly determined. But it is early to even qualified prediction regarding either the trade ton itself later in the present year. regarding the course of the political contest.