Evening star., 1936-02-09
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

ngureS, past performances. his
A method of forecasting has many
defects, but so have all the other
methods, including straw votes. I do
not really suggest this as a forecast,
and punctiliously warn everybody not
to bet on it. 1t is merely an analysis
of some past performances, limited in
scope, and the inference from it is
no more than it purports to be.
The popular vote in 1882, when Mr.
Roosevelt defeated Mr.. Hoover, was:
Democratic ---22 %, ,821 ,857
Republican .-----l5 10, ,76l BAL
Let us pause now to say that this
1871 .841 Republican vote in 1882 was
undoubtedly rock-bottom.
It is the number of rock bottom
Republican in the country. Anybody
who voted the Republican ticket in
1882, under the extremely adverse con-
ditions Of that year, can be depended
on to vote the same way in any future
election. In short, the number is the
absolute Republican minimum. 1t is
the figure with which the Republicans
can safely begin when they make esti-
mates about this year. They will have
that many votes certainly. And they
will have more. The question is, how
many more and where will they come
from?
Many Switched in 1882.
In the first place, the Republicans
this year will get back large number
of votes which in 1882 went to the
Democrats. Everybody knows that
very large number of voters, normally
Republicans, voted Democratic in 1882.
Because of the depression, or because
of the prohibition question, an i'm
mense number of Republicans voted
for MIR. Roosevelt. The question is,
how many? There is way of eSti-
mating. We can begin by trying to
find what is the normal Republican
vote.
Since woman suffrage came there
have been four presidential elections
1920, 1924, 1928 and 1882. The Re
publican vote in those four years was:
1920 16,152 200
1924 15,726, ,016
1928 q, ,392, 100
1892 is, 76l BAL
It would seem that the normal Re
publican vote would be their average
vote in these four presidential cleo
tions since woman suffrage. I am
aware that there are qualifications
to this estimate, and I do not put 1t
forth as being necessarily convincing
am aware of the factor Of increased
population. I am aware that in one
of the years, 1924, there was third
ticket, the La Toilette one, which got
4,822, 1856 votes, many of which came
from the Republicans. am aware
that 1928, when Mr.. Hoover first ran
and his opponent was former Gov. Al
fred e. Smith, was an abnormally high
Republican year. But that is balanced
by the fact that 1882 was an abnor-
mally low Republican year.
Average Is 17,5OS,o6
All in all, the average of all four
presidential elections since woman suf-
frage seems a reasonable estimate Of
the normal Republican vote. That
average is 17,508,060. knowing this
average, we can now estimate how
many Republicans voted Democratic
in 1882:
Average Republican te----17, ,50S ,060
Republican vote in 1932-----l5,7 76l BAL
Republicans voting Demo-
cratic in 1932---------- 1,751 ,219
Now let us assume that this year
these Republicans will go back home.
Let us add them to the Republican
vote of 1882. And, of course. let us
subtract them from the Democrats.
With this correction the vote of 1885
would be:
Republican ,5OS,O6O
Democratic tic------------2l ,07O,638
Obviously, If this return Of nearly
100000 Republicans to their party
were the only thing to happen this
year, Mr.. Roosevelt would still De a
winner by q comfortable majority.
But we all know this Is not the only
thing that is going to happen. We
all know that q large number OF DEM
ocrats, regular Democrats, are going
to vote against Mr.. Roosevelt. The
more regular they are the more likely
they win be to vote against Mr.. Roose-
velt. The fact that there will be a
large Democratic detection is sure.
It would be assured by what ex-
Gov. Smith has done, even If he
should do no more. For what ex-Gov.
Smith has done, speaking as himself
q former Democratic candidate for
the presidency. amounts to giving his
blessing to all Democrats who, like
himself. disapprove Mr.. Roosevelt as
President. To tie number Of Demo-