Evening star., 1936-09-15
BY WALTER DURANTY.


By Radio to The Star.
TOULON, France, September Is
An attempt to estimate the respective
chances of the Spanish loyalists and
the rebels is complicated by the fact
that they are engaged in a political
no less than q military struggle, and
the communiques of both sides not
only are contradictory but obviously
are intended more as propaganda than
as statements of fact. Also there are
the international and time factors,
both of which are Of great impor-
tance
Today the rebels have these advan-
tages-greatly superior artillery, more
munitions, probable superiority in air.
craft, better discipline and knowledge
of war and greater unity of command.
The rebels artillery reduced Irun,
forced the surrender of San Sebastian
and may bring the capture of Bilbao,
whereas a lack of artillery accounts
for the loyalist failure to take the
Alcazar, although the rest Of Toledo Is
wholly occupied, and the upper part
of Huesca, although the lower town
and the surrounding country have
been occupied. for more than 10 days.
Shell Fire Not Serious.
Despite the lurid dispatches about
"the terrific volume of fire" poured
on Irun, I gathered from Irun Defend
ers, who had escaped across the
French frontier and had reached Bar
celona, that the shell fire had been
more effective in the earlier stages OF
the siege, and then rather as a moral
factor than by actual damage. "The
first effect of the Shells" they said,
was so alarming that we abandoned
positions we might have held. After
wards, when we realized that the shells
were less dangerous than we thought
at first, it was too late to retrieve
the situation"
The World War proved that shell
IRE, unless concentrated to a degree
Tar beyond the possibilities of the
Spanish rebels, was not overeffective
against seasoned troops, but to raw
levies it appears terrible, and there
is no denying its value in reducing
Notifications at short range.
At this point the time factor and
the international situation come into
operation. On the, one hand, the
LoyalistS will acquire, by practice, CO.
hesion and steadiness. On the other
hand, it is a question whether the
rebels can keep up their artillery and
airplane establishments and NUM-
tions supplies without foreign aid.
Planes of Italian Make.
Sailors in the battleship Jaime Pri-
nero and the troops which partook
in the active Catalan invasion Of
Majorca declare unhesitatingly that
two rebel planes of Italian make were
used to drop bombs and then would
go of across the sea in northeasterly
direction, returning in three or four
hours with another load Of bombs.
An eyewitness deduced that the
planes reloaded bombs in italian ter
ritory, but they might have obtained
them from ship at sea.
There is little doubt that Portugal
IS aiding the rebels, if not with its
own munitions, certainly with transit
facilities.
Should foreign aid be cut off or
greatly reduced, the rebels would be
at disadvantage, as the "class war"
character of the struggle, which daily
is becoming more accentuated, will
cause labor troubles that will greatly
hamper work in armament and NUM-
tions plants.
Meanwhile the Loyalists, who have
succeeded in converting metallurgical
and other factories to armament work,
especially in Madrid and Barcelona,
already are producing arms, hand
grenades, shells, airplane motors and