Evening star., 1936-10-18
BY WALTER d. ROOS,


HARRISBURG, Pa, October IL
Pennsylvania campaign is approach
ing its climax with the result still
expected to be close and both parties
claiming the States SO electoral votes.
Republicans predict Landon will
carry the State by 250,000. Democrats
claim a Roosevelt majority of the
same figure. Actually, both managers
expect the race to be tight.
Results are made all the more
doubtful by analysis of straw polls of
Pennsylvania voting strength which
lead to conclusions which cannot be
reconciled.
The dehatable outcome means that
Pennsylvania will be campaigned dur
ing the next two weeks as never be-
fore. The major candidates of both
parties are expected to dip back into
the State for a final effort to clinch
the election.
Philadelphia to See Landon.
Landon will speak in Philadelphia
during the last week of the campaign,
for his second Pennsylvania speech
Col. Knox, next Friday will be at
Scranton for his fourth speech in
this State in seven weeks.
President Roosevelt also is expected
to return. Philadelphia and Scranton
have been rumored as likely spots for
his closing speech, but it is expected
he will make a surprise attack by
appearing in Central Pennsylvania,
which is a Republican stronghold.
Each party claims the closeness of
the result shows swing to its particu-
lar cause.
The Democrats contend the fact
that Pennsylvania is considered
doubtful indicates Democratic tide in
traditionally Republican State, and
tion as substantiation.
Republicans argue that, after losing
every State candidate in the Demo-
cratic sweep of 1884, a doubtful result
this year is proof of a Republican
comeback. They point to the big Re-
publican registration lead as evidence
the State will maintain its 80-year
record in presidential elections.
Most seasoned observers have be-
lieved the odds favored Landon be-
cause of the large Republican lead in
enrolled voters and the States tradl-
tion of not going Democratic on presi-
dental issues. In face of straw votes
showing increased Roosevelt strength
in recent months, they do not agree on
whether Landon can hold the advan-
tage to the finish.
Polls Give Landon Edge.
Two of the principal polls bolster
the view that Landon has the edge in
the State, but they show the big
cities to be pro-Roosevelt to de-
gree which upsets all rules of call
culating votes which were useful in
the past. It had been recognized
throughout the campaign that the
small towns and rural districts were
safe for Landon and that the Demo-
Gratis had made their biggest strides
in the populous industrial centers, but
the city trends had not been expected
to be as strongly pro-Democratic as
tilc SIl dW pOlS WOulu ulOuCdtc'
Based on an estimate of 3,500,000
votes to be cast in Pennsylvania Mo-
vember 3, the average of the majori-
ties these polls would give Landon
would be about $4,000, or less than
4 per cent of the total vote. That
figure is $4,000 less than the majority
by which Hoover carried the State
four years ago. 1t Is higher than most
private estimates by Republicans this
year and entirely out of joint with
the figures the Democrats have been
mulling over.
The big upset Of these sample votes
Is indicated for Philadelphia, If the
poll percentages are reliable. That
city went for Hoover by 10000 in 1882,
and for the Republican nominee for
Governor by 10000 two years ago.
The straw returns indicate Philadel-
phia would go for Roosevelt by be-
tween 10000 and 100000 this year-a
figure which astounds even the DEM
ocrats. They have been talking OF
holding the Republican lead down to
$4,000, and only in the past few weeks
have screwed up enough courage TO
claim the city; and their claims have
been from 10000 to $4,000.
If the indicated Roosevelt lead OF
more than 100000 in the two big
cities should materialize, the l3 .oo0
kAndon majority In the State MR1lcn