Evening star., 1936-07-26

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1880, Democrats elected-----------21s
1882, ----.-.--3l3
1884, --322
Democratic High Tide.
Thus. in 1884. the Democrats were
at high tide They were even higher
than they had been in the extraor-
dinary Roosevelt flood of 1932-and
that had been already an all-time
high. This 1884 Democratic tide was
the highest either party ever had.
The Democrats in 1884 elected more
Representatives. 322. than either party
had ever elected before.
Here we have the Democrats at low
tide In 1928-and then at high tide
in 1884. Here we have q Democratic
tide beginning soon after the 1928
election and running for six years.
until the 1884 election.
There are two questions. The
first is:
Has the Democratic tide turned
backward since 1894?
Sees Wide Change.
To that the answer is YES. The
tide began to turn against the Demo-
Gratis soon after the 1884 election. The
first sign of the turned tide was an
isolated election (due to a vacancy
arising In Rhode Island in 1885. In
that election the Democrats lost a
seat they had held. and lost it rather
badly. Other signs Of the turn of the
tide against the Democrats came In
the Fall OF 1885, when in some isolated
elections for State officers the Demo-
Gratis receded. In short, everybody
agrees, I think, that. the Democratic
tide, which was high in the November
1884, election, began its ebb very soon
after.
But the question Is less easy 70
answer. Let us put it this way:
| Can tide which had run higher
and higher for the Democrats during
six years until November. 1934-can
such tide reverse itself in the short
space Of two years so greatly as to re-
suit in Democratic defeat the coming
| November?
Offhand, one would answer no. Off,
hand, one would say that, while the
tide is running strongly against the
Democrats, 1t cannot possibly run far
enough in the short space of two years
to turn an unprecedented Democratic
victory in 1884 into q Democratic de-
/ feat in 1896.
Speed Of Shift.
| But just had fast do political tides
run? Especially, how fast do they run
in recent times, when the speed Is
accelerated by the radio, the motion
picture and other devices which speed
up the spread of popular emotion
Years ago one would have said a tide
could not possibly reverse itself sc
completely within two years. But. un-
der present conditions, I suspect II
can. Political tides have come tc
move very fast, indeed.
When express doubt whether the
present tide against the New Deal car
run far enough in two years to defeat
1t next November, ! am corrected BY
our recent experience with national
prohibition. Again and again during
the 1905 I said-and many others
said-that national prohibition could
not be repealed in q shorter period
than five years. I said-and strong
anti-prohibitionists agreed-that the
mere mechanical routine of repeal
getting a vote in each House of Con.
gress and then getting q vote In 81
States-would consume fully five
years. Everybody believed that ever
if an immense majority Of the people
wanted repeal, the business of going
through the motions-getting a two
thirds majority in both branches OF
Congress and then a majority in three.
fourths of the States-would consume
at the very least, three years.
Yet what happened? Once the
country really turned against nationa
prohibition the process of repeal con.
sumed less than 10 months. The motior
| to repeal was introduced in Congress