Evening star., 1936-04-19
Democratic Hopes
Based ON Recovery
By O,uen L. Scott.

PSAAONA Va UuOulCoo
after long depression. From that con-
clusion they go on to say to themselves:
Business by November should be en-
Joytng miniature boom. Everything
is breaking right to suggest that result
Under the circumstances, in spite of all
the noise and maneuvering, the election
will be decided by the state of the
public pocketbook.
But a year ago, counting political
chickens before they were hatched the
party leaders had concluded: Nobody
can beat four billion dollars. They took
one look at the work-relief fund of that
amount and exuded confidence Today
political asset, is the party's largest liza
bility. It's use is producing a bigger
crop OF official and political headaches
than any other venture yet undertaken.
X
One mistake in judgment may be fol-
lowed by another. However, in drawing
their latest conclusions on the state of
business, the strategists are highly con-
fident. Reasons for this confidence in
clude:
l. The pent-up effect on trade of bill
lions in deficit spending during the past
three years. Business is turning up again
after first quarter lull
2. The impetus to this upturn that will
be given by distribution of two billion
dollars in soldiers bonus money, much of
which will flow into business during the
Summer and Fall.
9. The dose of $500 900 900 in cash now
being administered to 3,50O,000 farmers
in payment for performance under con-
tracts that the Supreme Court held to
be illegal. This dose will be followed in
the Fall by the start of another,
amounting to $4,000 900, as compensa-
ton for conserving soil.
4. The pump-priming effect of $780,
100000 a month now being poured
through w. P. A. P. w. A and r. A.
into the pockets of about 100000 fami-
lies who otherwise would largely be
out OF the consuming markets. While
the spending of this money is causing
problems, its circulation through the
bloodstream Of business stirs activity.
X
Other developments add to the pros
poets for an active Fall business. Thus,
agriculture is showing sharp gains in
income, even without Government check
payments. Farmers are raising more.
They are entering a production season
that promises fairly normal weather in
most regions, assuring bigger volume
of crops to more than make up for any
likely price decline. Country districts
are going to have a larger amount of
money to spend than at any time since
1929.
Also home building, after years of
Stagnation, now is showing definite signs
OF revival. Mortgage money is available,
rents are rising to make building of
homes more attractive. and the increase
in population is pressing on available
dwellings. That means an addition to
business
But with all of the stimulus of Gov
ernment spending and of farm and
building revival, the hard fact is that
millions remain out of work. The Presi-
dent is up against the figures which
show, without much question, that his
recovery program has failed to solve
the major depression problem. Repub-
licans are prepared to attack at that
vulnerable point, and they will warn the
people of the instability and the dangers
involved in business revival based upon
an unbalanced budget.
Mr.. Roosevelt depending on subsidy
induced better business to carry him
back into Office, already is busy trying
to shift the blame for this condition of
unemployment from his own shoulders
to the shoulders Of business itself and
of the courts.
He argued in his message asking Con-
greSs for another billion and one-half
to spend on relief that responsibility
for continued unemployment rested on
the shoulders of business. He repeated
that argument in his address at Balti
more during the past week.
The Presidents opponents assert that
the improvement in business stems from
the end of N. R. A. He asserts that the
end of N. R. A. simply removed the
mechanism through which better busi-
ness, now in sight, would have been
translated into added jobs for the un-
employed through regulation of hours
and wages.
But actually, shorn of camouflage,
what the Democrats see is this:
First, that the Supreme Court, just in
time, removed from their shoulders the
dead weight of an N. r. A. code sys-
TEN that had been badly administered
and had collapsed.
Next, that the court removed the A.
A. A crop control plan in time to keep
it from becoming political liability of
major proportions in the Eastern part
of the country.
Third, that the end of processing
taxes and of A. A. A. crop control at
one stroke knocked out from Republican
hands living issue that could have been
good for large numbers of city votes.
BY Fall food prices are expected to be
tending downward definitely, but without
adversely affecting the total of farm
income.
Fourth, that with N. r. A. codes and
A. A. A. crop controls gone, irritations
are removed and the way is open to take
full advantage of the business improve
ment that subsidies will have induced
by Fall of this year.
X X 4
The argument of Republicans and of
business leaders is that if the President
only would stop interfering with business
it would quickly return to a condition
of prosperity that would enable the un-
employed to find work.
A sharp skirmish is going to be fought
around that point in the months ahead.
Mr.. Roosevelt is arming himself with
ammunition to do battle over the issue.
The Democrats are getting ready to
make heavy use of industrial profit fig
ures. AS compiled by the National City
Bank of New York, returns from 2010
representative corDorationS show 1913