Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1936-11-01
ROOSEVELT NEEDS
LIGHT bALL0T|NG
G. O. P. Registration Margin
Accurate Indicator of
True Lead.
BY WALTER d. ROOS,
aneciaI Corresnnndent of The Star,

Forecasting what Pennsylvania will
do Tuesday Is a task totally unlike
making prediction predictions in
any recent presidential year. In the
past, it consisted chiefly Of fixing
the size Of the Republican majority.
This year the vote will be close and
the outcome still Is in doubt.
The Republicans have registered
more than enough votes to give Penn
sylvania's SO electoral votes to Lam
don; but whether enough Of those
votes will be polled is uncertain. The
result of the election hinges upon
the proportion of voters who go to
the polls.
In large numbers political analysts
representing newspapers have toured
Pennsylvania. sampling sentiment.
No two have agreed precisely upon
the outcome. They have not agreed
upon the winner and those who
picked the same candidate varied
widely in estimated pluralities. They
have agreed only in the obvious facts
that the industrial cities. former Re-
publican strongholds, are more pro-
Roosevelt this year, and that the
rural sections are more firmly Repub-
Gcan.
Margin Under 100000 Seen.
Political leaders in private esti-
mates differ as widely. While pre-
dieting large majorities. they actually
believe neither candidate can carry
Pennsylvania by much more than
100000. and the margin is likely to
be represented by five digits. The
Democrats this week boosted their
public prediction from 100000 to
100000 lead for Roosevelt: but the
Presidents return to campaign in
Pennsylvania this week was regarded
as revealing their belief that the
State is not Gin the bag" A nominee
would scarcely make several speeches
in a sure" State five days before
the balloting.
The Pennsylvania result depends
entirely upon the percentage of reg
istered vote which goes to the polls.
II the vote is very light, Roosevelt
will win; If 1t is average (about s.
100000 votes). the outcome is q toss
up: if it is very heavy. Landon will
carry the State, and the heavier the
vote the better Landon's chances of
o good majority.
There are two reasons for this
analysis.
One Is that the Democratic vote
will be at the polls. Almost the maxi
mum Roosevelt vote will be polled,
even if the general turnout of all
voters reaches only low percentage.
The Democrats have made their
biggest registration gains in the cities,
where the vote is comparatively easy
to get out. The Democrats have nearly
all the machinery-a jobholders' Or
ganization, 375.o00 cases on w. P. A.
and direct relief, United Mine Work.
ers, textile and hosiery workers or
ganized to a high degree to get out
the vote. They will see to 1t that
most of the Roosevelt vote is polled
regardless OF what the turnout by the
independent citizens. Because so
much Of the potential Roosevelt vote
is certain to be brought to the polls
by the Democratic organization, a
very heavy vote can increase this total
only slightly.
G. o. p. Organization Lost.
The Republicans, on the other hand,
are handicapped by loss of the eff
cient jobholder organization they
have had in the past and by the fact
that the big backing of their strength
this year is in rural districts, where it
Is hard to get out the vote" Voters
there to a much larger extent must
be depended upon to come out volun-
tarlly. For that reason, the Repub-
lcans are expected to poll a lower
percentage Of their registration than
the Democrats will poll of theirs. Re-
publican hope is dependent upon a
volunteer organization, with the wom-
en- working as never before, and the
willingness Of the business men, law
yers, farmers and rural residents to
go to the polls Of their own initiative.
consequently, although the Democrats
are virtually certain to have almost
their maximum vote at the polls, the
proportion of the Republican vote
which will be cast is matter of guess
work, dependent chiefly upon the in
dividual voters zeal for Landon or
against Roosevelt
With a 100000 registration lead.
however, it is not necessary for the
Republicans to poll as high a percent
age OF their vote to win. If the Re-
publican vote equals only IS per cent
OF its registration it can cancel "a
per cent Of the Democratic registra.
ton.
The swingover of Republican regis
trants to Democratic votes, which has
been In evidence for eight years, is
believed at the vanishing point.
Changes in registration are believed
to have liquidated the excess of Demo-
cratic votes over registration. This
year, more nearly than for decade,
the registration figures are believed
approximately indicative of party
strength. That means the Republican
registration lead of 100000 Is for the
large part composed of Republican
votes-if they can be induced to 20
to the polls.
For that reason, despite the belief
that the bulk Of the Roosevelt vote
Is certain to be polled, Landon's
chances improve as the vote grows
heavier.
Coal Counties Democratic.
Roosevelt is expected to carry the
third Of the State west of the noun.
tains, winning Pittsburgh by probably
$4,000. and Allegheny County by plu-
ralities estimated at anywhere from
$4,000 to 100000 or $4,000 votes, in
GLIDING Pittsburgh's lead. The south
western coal counties will go strongly
Democratic. The northwestern coun-
ties probably will be less Democratic
than in 1884. The anthracite region
Of northern Pennsylvania will show
. big pro-Roosevelt vote with the
President carrying Lackawanna Coun-
ty and Scranton, having close fight
in Luzerne County and Wilkes-B Barre.
but running against odds in the