Evening star., 1936-05-31
Japan VIEWED CERTAIN
TO FACE NEW TROUBLE
Real "New Deal' by Hirota Government
Called Only Means of Preventing
Recurrence of Outbreaks. ~

he took ONCE, that not only is it
probably impossible to anticipate o
decrease in expenditure; We must b.
prepared even for a fresh increase In
national disbursements" and an
nouncing his intention to increase
taxation, created a severe slump on
the stock exchange which compelled
him to alleviate the effect by second
statement in which he declared Il in.
tend to enforce these policies smoothly
in order that there may be no violent
fiuctuation in the financial world.
. Needless to say. state finances
must be based on the economic strength
the nation, and / am quite aware
that violent impact on national econ
omy would be foolish and would invite
chaos and impede development"
AS regards foreign policy, Premier
Hirota holds the helm himself, al.
though he has appointed Mr.. Arita.
foreign minister to China, to be foreign
minister Mr. Hirota told foreign cor
respondents in his first interview with
them after assuming the premiership
that there would be no war so long IS
| ne remained premleG.
This was reiteration of the state
ment he made to the Diet when he
was foreign minister a year ago, but
it took courage to renew this declara.
ton in view of the. fact that there was
undeniably a certain section of the
army which favored the solution Of
Japan's difficulties with Russia by the
more decisive method Of war rather
than the diplomacy advocated by Hi
rota. Nobody doubts Mr.. Hirotas
sincerity, but his pledge should not
be taken as meaning that there will be
no war in the Far East, for Mr.. Hi.
rota's cabinet can fall at any time un-
| der the pressure of circumstances.
Japan's Policy Independent"
Much has been heard since the ad-
vent of the Hirota government about
more positive and independent poll
icy in foreign affairs, but Mr. Hirota
explained to foreign correspondents
that what was meant was that the
adjustment Of Japan's relations with
other countries would be "speeded up"
and that Japans policy must be 'in-
| dependent" inasmuch as Japan has
no alliances with foreign countries
and is compelled to carry on in an
independent manner.
So far there has been on indication
Of any important change of foreign
policy and there is every likelihood
that the Hirota policy of the last two
years, when he was foreign minister,
will be carried forward in much the
\ same way. 1t may be expected, how.
ever. that Mr. Hirota will make every
effort to eliminate the differences
which have frequently marked army
and foreign Office policies during the
last two years. A regular weekly meet
ing of Foreign Minister Arita with
War Minister Terauchi and Navy
Minister Nagano has been arranged SO
that a unified front may be main.
tanned with regard to foreign policy.
Mr.. Hirota has so far adhered stead.
fastly to his three principles as re-
CARDS China policy. namely. the sup.
preston of anti-Japanese agitation in
China. cooperation between China,
Manchukuo and Japan, and joint
Sino-JapaneSe action in suppressing
communism in North China. These
three points, however, are not destined
to go we'll hand in hand, for the
pressing of the two latter points Is
likely to stimulate anti-Japanese SEN
timent in China. 1t is, upon these tSo
last points, however, and particularly
upon the third one, that japanese
policy is TO be focused in the coming
months.
Indications are that the recog-
milton of Manchukuo by the East
Hopei government and the conclusion
of a military alliance between East
Hopei and Manchukuo may be fol-
lowed later on by the recognition Of
Manchukuo by the Hopei- -Chahar
government and the conclusion of q
similar military alliance. The cul-
mination Of all this might well be
the conclusion of a military alliance
between the whole of North China,
Manchukuo and Japan, which would
create a situation in North China
somewhat analogous to that of Man
chukuo.
Relations With Russia Main Problem.
But Japan's relations with Russia
is the main problem at present. OBJ
viously they have not been more
strained at any time since the Man
churian outbreak. The Russian EN-
baSsy here is virtually cut of from
japanese contacts. Interpreters and
| nf he 70 nff ha
embassy have been arrested while
embassy officials are closely watched.
The Japanese officials explain that
this is merely the same treatment as
Is accorded to the Japanese Embassy
in Moscow, but the Russians answer
that the Japanese treatment here Is
discriminatory, while in Moscow the
same tactics are employed toward
every one.
Repeated incidents along the bor-
der of Manchukuo and Russia and
Manchukuo and Outer Mongolia have
given rise to frequent reports here OF
possible war between Japan and
Russia. but those acquainted with
the situation at first hand do not
believe that such a conflict Is imrmi-
nent. Japan is not prepared for it
at the present time. Japanese Army
officers are we'll aware that the Rus.
slams are fully prepared and are man
ming semi-permanent chain of forts
along the Soviet border of Manchu-
kuo, while the Soviet Union has made
it plain recently that Russia intends
to defend Outer Mongolia If attacked.
Japan Not Ready for Russian War.
Japan has not sufficient forces In
Manchukuo at present to fight a war
with Russia. The japanese forces in
Manchukuo are now estimated to
number approximately 10000 men,
including railway guards and a police
force of about 10000 men, so that
less than 100000 men are available
for use along the border. The Rus
slams are estimated to have 250000
| tronrS a1opn fha ho,.dar xsyi,;la