Evening star., 1936-12-13

SaiAy dAlu economically duflSdUle.
Beyond that, two desires are upper
most in Mr.. Roosevelt's mind at
present, in my opinion. One is peace
and the other Is national system Of
minimum wages and maximum hours.
The present neutrality law is little
more than a pious, but unsubstantial,
hope. The public may not realize it,
but I am sure Mr.. Roosevelt does.
I believe he will work when he gets
back to the United States to develop
q real neutrality law which carries
some guarantees as well as hopes that
the United States can remain out Of
the clash which Is inevitable sooner
or later in Europe. He will probably
do 1t by increasing his range of power
to restrict commercial and financial
entanglements with Europe while try.
ing to develop Latin American markets
as substitute. The recently proposed
treaty at the Pan-American Confer.
ence will undoubtedly furnish his basis
of action.
Not Fully Formulated,
On the matter Of hours and wages
his plans are not fully formulated.
l do not believe there is a chance in
the world that he will undertake a
constitutional amendment, and I do
not believe that Mr.. Roosevelt now
believes there is any law which could
oe passed by Congress to establish a
Federal control over hours and wages
IN any effective or practical way.
What I believe he will do is to have
Congress pass few minor laws which
Will encourage the union labor move
ment TO take over the fight and be
governed in his own development of
policy by the coming decisions of the
supreme Court on the Wagner labor
bill and the holding companies act.
Ihat is, II the court renders opinions
IN these two cases which open the way
for Federal legislation on the subject,
l believe he might then attempt it, but
not otherwise.
AS for social security, it is clear now
the policy undertaken in the current
law Will certainly be continued. but
the administration contemplated in
that law certainly will not. That is.
the theory of paying unemployment
insurance and old-age pensions through
taxes upon beneficiaries and employers
is firmly established among the New
Deal purposes. But the present law
creates system which most people
in Washington will agree is apt to be
inefficient and appalling. Some ex-
perts estimate that it may require
zoe, 900 persons to administer the act.
Others believe the ultimate size of the
fund in about 40 years would amount
to the inconceivable total of $4,000
600, 900, in the hands of the Federal
Treasury.
These are administrative difficulties
which will have to be faced and
changed during the next few years.
The Social Security Board, I under
stand, has already prepared the first
series of amendments, which will be
offered at the coming session. There
probably will have to be amendments
to the law every session from now on,
but believe the theory and the tax
will be continued.
Policy to Be Continued.
The trade treaty policy will also
be continued. The powers Of the
President which expire on June IL
will be extended by Congress. There
probably will be no tax bill OF any
moment, the New Dealers being we'd
ded to the new tax on undistributed
earnings of corporations. It fits in
with their theory on spending and
redistribution of income, and while
some notifications will be made in it
eventually to permit credits for debt
retirement and so forth, it appears
now that these will not be made at
this session. They might have been
made if the election had been a lit
tie closer, but in view Of the landslide
result the Oliphant group in the
Treasury, with the full approval of
the President, intends to try out the
act for full year before attempting
to effect any corrective changes in it.
The P. w. A. will probably be ex-
tended on diminished basis; tinker
ing with rural resettlement and sub
homesteads will probably
continue on an experimental and con-
diminished scale; the move
of John Lewis to organize the steel
industry will be encouraged; econo-
mics will be effected in Federal ad-
but not to an extent
which will bring the Federal budget
any great savings; when the budget
is balanced it will be on the basis of
an annual Federal expenditure of
Sc, 900, 100000 to $1,000, 100000 also
in conformity with the spending
theory.
All this is what the New Dealers
intend to do. 1t is their program
and their purpose, as near as I can
make it out from my contacts and
But will they do it?
Can they do it for four more years?
That is an entirely different matter.
The basic economic and financial
program was conceived to meet a set
Of conditions which grew out of the
depression. It was made to fit the
uphill climb. For instance, Govern
ment spending is economically sound
and justifiable only when 1t is needed
to prime the pump, as Mr.. Roosevelt
used to say. But when the pump
Is already primed and begins pumping
at so buckets per minute, further
priming will burn it up. 1t is like
pulling the choke of your automobile
out when the engine is hot. You flood
the carburetor.
Economists Foresee Boom.
Certain administration economists
now figure that we are heading into
q boom which will certainly take
place during the next two years. The
Federal Reserve Board seems to be
certain Of 1t. Its power to restrict
credit by increasing reserve require
ments has already been exerted once
and arrangements are now being made
10 hike the requirements again. The
board, in fact, seems to be thoroughly
disturbed by the prospects of a boom,
with all the credit facilities now
WING ar0a1nd loonn and is Aofnrrn;u>S