Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1936-11-01
The ImpOnderables.

The "tumult and the shouting" Of the
campaign subsidies to await the majestic
voice of the people on election day.
More than ever this year the "imponder-
ables" rise to plague those who cast aside
personal predictions and wishful think
ing in an effort to forecast the decision at
the polls. No campaign in recent years
has presented so many of these unknown
quantities-inf1uences capable of sway
ing so many voters if they make them
selves felt at all-nor has any election
in recent years presented so clearly the
tangible considerations surely to be
counted on as compelling the vote OF
great numbers of people.
In his final article in today's Star on
the campaign and the election MIR. G.
Gould Lincoln gives what is undoubtedly
the predominant opinion Of those who
have studied carefully the situation in
the States. This is that ION the surface"
the President and his administration
have the decided edge and that nothing
d
steadily accommodating strength in the
past two years, will turn the result to
Landon and Knox and the rejuvenated
forces of the Republican party.
For many years The Star has main
tanned a direct contact with conditions
in the States during political campaigns
through selected correspondents, and, on
the basis of their opinions-for they can
never be anything but opinions-has
summarized in weekly tables the possible
lineup Of the States. This year the
strength of the "imponderables" is in
dicated in the number of electoral votes
which, almost on the eve of the election,
are left in the doubtful" column. Com
pared with the corresponding columns of
previous years there are ninety-one such
votes today as against thirty-one so tab
ulated in 1928 and forty in 1882. The
same table gives total of 301 "sure" and
leaning" Democratic electoral votes as
against 1879 Republican. In 1928 the
same combinations gave the Republicans
296 and the Democrats 204; in 1882 the
Democrats were given 365 and Republic
cans 126.
The known odds this year favor the
reelection Of the President. Except in
the South and in New England, party
lines seem to count for little, crossed as
they have been by so many curious ele-
ments incapable Of partisan classical
ton. At the close of the campaign the
basic issues remain about as they were
in the beginning. Only the sudden in
lection of the social security tax has
brought a new element into the picture,
its strength chiefly measured by the
vehemence of the Democratic protest.
OF the known factors favoring the re-
election of the President, most potent
force is represented in the vast expendi-
lures Of the administration and the mil
lions Of direct and indirect Government
benef1ciaries created by spending policy
that will evidently continue under the
New Deal. Another is the vital, per-
sonal leadership Of the President himself
and the success that has accompanied
his efforts to identify himself as the
great humanitarian, lance leveled in I'M
ending combat against forces that but
Tor his vigilance would grind down the
poor man and keep him shackled in the
bonds of poverty. He has painted COM
polling picture of future in which every
man will be king, sharing his throne only
with government.
Governor Landon has fought a good
Tight under heavy odds. Denied much
Of the glamour which surrounds the Pres
adent, heading party during business
revival that has been identified with the
business depression, he has nevertheless
impressed himself favorably on the peo-
pie as an honest, conscientious and able
man. He has drawn to his support the
conservative thought of the country
which Is distrustful not only of continued
spending Of borrowed money, but which
fears conception of government as the
source Of support of its citizens and
which must be clothed with the power to
accompany responsibility for all it has
undertaken in the name of human well
fare. If Roosevelt has won the worker in
the city, Governor Landon has ground
for claiming the support of the more
conservative, property farmer, as
well as the large element Of the business
and industrial world which believes from
experience that many of the New Deal
sermons are full of theory-tried in the
past and found wanting. The strength
Of these various groups Of protestants is
more difficult to measure than the
strength of those who can be counted on
to support the President.
The campaign has been relatively
clean, Notwithstanding the prediction
made in January last to the Democratic
National Committee by Chairman James
A. Farley that the Republicans would
make this the bitterest and certainly the
dirtiest political struggle that any Of us
here can remember" Mud-throwing
has been no more notable than usual,
not as marked as in some past CAM
paigns. And Of comfort to those who
place more faith In democracy than In