Evening star., 1936-07-13
CORN CROP FATE
DECLARED INDEX
TO FOOD PRICES
Continued Drought Might
Skyrocket Costs, A. A. A.
Aide Says.
SHORTAGE OF FODDER
FEARED FOR LIVE STOCK
Reports So Far Are Too Vague to
Make Forecast, but Heavy
Rains Needed.

Rains Needed.
The enigma of how long the Ma
tions corn crop will Withstand the in
roads of drought holds the secret of
whether food costs will skyrocket as a
result of the long dry spell, accord
ing to Donald E. Montgomery, con-
sumers' counsel of the Agricultural Ad-
justment Administration.
What happens to the corn belt in
the next two weeks will tell the story" "
Montgomery declared today Of Amer
ica's leading feed crop. Its too early
yet to get the picture. Reports are
vague. But rain deferred much longer
might mean disaster"
If the stalks in the heart of the corn
country begin to burn, Montgomery
said, the resultant lessening in the
stocks of beef cattle, which supply so
per cent of the Nations meat, and
hogs will bring price rise which may
not reach its peak until late Spring
Of 1887.
Range Cattle Hit.
And with the beef cattle dying now
on the Great Plains, only a slight in
road into the major sources of feed
crops is needed to reduce the meat
supply to the danger level. For sum-
mary of the national food supply made
public by the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics last Fall made this reve-
lation:
1.-The combined supply of all foods
available for consumption in the
United States in the 1856 season
may be slightly larger than the guam
tity consumed in the 1934-5 season
but about per cent less than the
average for the 1884 season and
about per cent less than the average
for the 1925-29 period.
The combined supply, production
and carry-over, of all foods for the
1856 season probably will be about
l per cent less than in the 1934-5
season, but the exports of some food
stuf1s are expected to be reduced to
some extent so as to leave slightly
larger the total supply available for
consumption.
Definite Curve Followed.
The course of meat prices during
severe drought follows a positive
course, traceable over charts of for
mer years, as follows:
First, prices are depressed as farm
ers "hquidate" their stocks by send
ing their animals swiftly to the mar
ket, before the available supply Of
feed becomes too low.
Second, after this initial "liquida-
tion" the price strikes a slow upward
curve.
Third, speculation sets in and the
price takes rapid upswing.
Fourth, temporary depression in
price as the immediate after-effect Of
the speculative activity.
Fifth, long continued upswing
brought about by scarcity and not
broken until the following Spring.
when calves and pigs dropped earlier
become available for the market.
Even now, two years after the great
drought of 1884, the effect is still felt
on the pig crop, although this years
farrow was 20 per cent over that of
the Spring Of 1885.
And already, according to reports
from Chicago, there has been a rapid
rise in the retail price of such COM
modities as poultry. butter and eggs,
with the influence of the earlier
drought in the South Atlantic States
still holding up the potato and truck
ing market.
Effect in South.
OF the dry hand of drought in the
South, the crop report Of July de-
clared:
Lack of rainfall at critical periods
In the Southeastern States lowered
the yields of green vegetables from
this area. The important vegetable
areas in the Eastern and Northeastern
parts of the country bid fair to pro-
duce crops only slightly below normal.
While the acreage of vegetable
crops for commercial canning or man
ufacture is slightly greater this sea-
son than in 1885, the yield prospects
are considerably below average, espe-
cially for sweet corn and tomatoes"
How far-reaching an effect the de-
struction of wheat will have on the
price Of bread is difficult to determine.
Under average conditions, the wheat
In a loaf of bread is worth is cents.
In the Spring of 1884, it was IL cents
and rose to high of 165 cents for
that drought year. But wheat rust in
the Spring of 1885 had still greater
effect than drought. for by Autumn
of 1885 there was 1856 cents worth Of
wheat in each pound loaf of bread.
But this rise need not necessarily be
reflected in the consumer bread cost.
For q by-product Of flour milling is
bran, an animal feed, and the worse
the drought, the greater the price the
miller can get for his bran from the
farmer. This tends to equalize the
increase to the bread-eater in the cost
Of flour.
The activity of the hog market puz-
zles Montgomery. Chops are down to
34.4 cents a pound retail, rs per cent
below the price year ago, when this
''poor mans food" was millionaire's
meat. But hogs have been stronger
than we expected" Montgomery said.
They dropped of suddenly between the
7th and 9Th of July. however, q
situation which might be accounted for
by either of two factors:
81. It may be belated shipment Of
the pig crop of last Fall.
20. It may be liquidation in antici-
patton of feed shortage.
'tIf the latter is true, we may have
cause to worry. but it is practically
at this point to get accu-
rate information. Without this drought
we expected to have normal supply Of
hogs this Fall for the first time since
early 1884,"