Evening star., 1936-11-07

cause n D er- 2zasssl410e&9& Se
centage of error David Lawrence,
Of men inside the
New Deal was almost as great in try
ing to anticipate the electoral vote
and the popular vote as by people who
Vere on the outside.
1t has seemed to me that the sub
tect was worth investigating, because
it may throw light on the meaning
of the election itself Accordingly
telegraphed two outstanding reporters
one in Indiana and one in Mime
sota-men who have for more than
IS years written national politics and
studied their situations with the ut
most thoroughness and fairness.
When I visited their States these
two men advised me that Roosevelt
would probably carry them, 1 checked
back with them just few days before
the election, and while both seemed
more certain Of the probability OF a
Roosevelt victory. neither had any
inkling of the landslide that was COM
ing. l discover now also that the
men on the inside of the political
management didn't know and were
surprised at the outcome.
Observer Explains.
In Indianapolis Robert G. Tucker
has for many years written about In
diana politics. He made tour OF
most of the counties of the State in
October and had unusually good
sources of information in both parties
I received the following telegram
from him:
In my final forecast I pointed out
there was likelihood OF Roosevelt
landslide in Indiana. but if Landon
won it would be by close vote. There
never was chance for Landon IN
Indiana except by the narrowest sort
of margin, but polls of factory work
ers in Gary, South Bend and other
industrial centers indicated possibility
of a tremendous vote for Roosevelt
who obviously gained marked strength
In final week.
my forecast was for minimum OF
10000 for Roosevelt with possibility
of more than 100000. Democratic
State organization polls completed
after your visit here showed Roose-
velt to win by more than 143 900. AS
you know, from 20 to 35 per cent OF
voters on both party poll books were
listed as independents or doubtfuls.
They and Roosevelt's unexpected
strength among farmers probably
provide key to the outcome.
Test polls taken by Democratic
managers here of 'doubtfuls,' week
before election, indicated three out
of four might vote for him. Roosevelt
was supported by large majority OF
'doubtfuls' in Indiana.
Swung by Saturday Speech.
PERSONALLY my view is that Roose-
velt's Saturday night speech in New
York turned many wavering business
men and upper class employees from
him because they didn't like what ne
said about desiring to become mas
ter, but that speech obviously set the
stage for him tremendously with the
lower brackets with whom he was
strong throughout the campaign.
ALSO, there are reports that last
hour drive on social security tax actu-
don. There was an unusual registra-
ton and heaviest vote in Indiana
history which helped to swell Roose-
welt total.
with labor, w. P. A, the Negroes,
miners and their families, c. G. c.
men as the backlog of support for
Roosevelt there never was any ex-
cuse for thinking he would fall much
below 100000. He seems to have had
the >4doubtfuls, and they account
largely for the landslide"
After reading the above, in which
the highest that the Democratic nian-
sgement estimated as result of their
private canvass was $4,000" ma
jority for Roosevelt, which was prob
ably a top figure as political estimates
go, it is interesting to look at the
latest returns, where We find that Mr..
Roosevelt carried Indiana by 234, ,253.
President Even Too Low.
Thus did the Democratic managers
themselves in Indiana, who ought to
know their own State and who cer-
tainly were not looking at the situ-
mistake of nearly 100000 in estimating
the final majority. The same was true
Of the political managers on the
Democratic side In other States, and
it developed that the President him
self, who ought to have the best
sources of data did not forecast
beyond $50 electoral votes and ac-
tually got 523.
Now let us look at Minnesota, where
Charles B. Cheney, another one of
the. country's outstanding reporters
on politics. with an especial familiar
ity with Minnesota politics extending
over q quarter of century, was of
the opinion that Mr.. Roosevelt would
carry the State, but he did not sense
the landslide. His telegram in re-
1ponse to my inquiry says:
Roosevelt sentiment appeared all
along TO be in the ascendancy. Only
reason for hedging and predicting a
close vote was Landon's showing in
the polls. It is evident now that op-
position to Roosevelt was more in
tense and anxious to make show
ing and 50 took q greater part in
polls.
es Invisible Factor.
a"I would say that the chief in
visible factor was the employees who
were quietly for Roosevelt because
they knew employers favored Landon.
Opposition to the Canadian treaty
annong, dairy FARMERS did not make
tBefexpected showing in votes"
aisiIiopkins over. .the finsf results. we
find that with about one sffftli OF the
precincts still aunreported the Roose-
welt majority was 264,oo0. It was not
close at an
&;In,1writing my own forecast put
both Minnesota and Indiana in the
Roosevelt column, but did not believe
tKeE margin would be big. When
Waited Indiana took pains to in
=