Evening star., 1936-07-26
Parties Figuring on
Electoral Vote
BY OVEN L. SCOTT.

mathematics. Men who long ago thought
that they had forgotten their arithmetic
now display an amazing agility at men,
tai addition and subtraction.
The game is to piece together combi-
nations of figures that will elect q
President on next November 3. Each
political strategist on both sides has his
own pet combination. Campaign plans
and strategy are based upon them.
Presidents are elected not necessarily
by majority vote of all voting citizens,
but by majority OF State electoral
votes. The decision in each individual
State binds the total electoral vote of
that State to the victorious candidate,
without giving proportional weight to
the minority opinion.
A majority of 100 votes in New York
State throws Al electoral votes to the
candidate winning in that State, while
a similar majority of 100 in New Mexico,
Arizona or Nevada would throw only
three electoral votes.
The candidate wins the presidency
who is successful in gathering 266 elec-
toral votes out Of total in the Nation
or 531.
Furious figuring now under way starts
from that point. Republicans throw
together State combinations that give
them the needed 266. Democrats do the
same as they search for the magic for
mula Of sure success. Each side decides
which States are most vital to their
purposes and which States can be neg
lected.
Fundamental to an understanding Of
the present problem facing the Repub-
licans and the Democrats is the Ger
tain" electoral vote.
The Democrats start off with an as
sumption-borne out by all available
signs that the Southern States this
year will vote solidly for President
Roosevelt. That means 10 States with
cratic politician can rattle them of and
give the total while the amateur blinks.
They are:
Texas with g. North Carolina with l3,
Georgia with IL. Alabama with II, Vir-
ginia with II. Louisiana with 10. Missis-
Sippi with 9, Arkansas with 8, South
Carolina with g. Florida with 7.
***
Then the Democrats go on to list as
certain" the so-called border States,
with the exception of Maryland with its
eight votes, which still is classed even
by the party leaders as debatable
ground.
So their mental addition runs on:
Missouri with Is votes, Tennessee with
II, Kentucky with II, Oklahoma with IL.
The total 48. This vote added to the
113 from the solid South give 161. Need
ed to elect are 266. meaning that, on
the basis of their figuring the Demo-
Gratis think that their present job Is
to capture 105 electoral votes
Where can these votes be found? Be
fore answering that question there is
the matter of the starting strength of
| the Republicans.
If the Democrats have the solid
i South, the Republicans have New Eng
| sachusetts with II votes, Connecticut
with 8, Maine with 5, New Hampshire
with 4. Rhode Island with and Ver-
mont with 8. The total is Al. But then
Kansas is added to the certain list this
year. giving more and count Of so.
The opposition to the President this
year thus starts with something Of a
handicap in the matter of rock-ribbed
territory. New England's Al votes are
decidedly less important in total than
the solid South's 1l3.
Remaining States Of the country are
a battle-ground so far as the Republicans
are concerned. They face the task of
winning ZIG electoral votes. To accom-
| plish that task they count on a ground
swell of opposition to New Deal policies
and personalities that will give them
the populous States of the country.
The Republican strategists set down
their expected lineup as follows: New
York with 47. Pennsylvania with 36.
Illinois with %, Ohio with 26. Michigan
with 10, New Jersey with 16, Indiana
| with IA, Iowa with II. Minnesota with
| IL, Colorado with 6, Delaware with 3,
and the total 218, or two more than
| enough to push them over. with Kansas
and New England counted as sure.
And. the Republicans point out, this
calculation is without considering Cali
| fornia or Washington, or Wisconsin, or
Nebraska, or the Dakotas.
But it leaves victory dependent on
winning just about all Of the big States
| of the country. To lose New York
wsuld be practically fatal to party hopes
| Much the same is true of Pennsylvania
or Illinois. If they should be lost math-
ematical probabilities would be against
| victory.
| k* -
Republicans face the problem, which
they have met successfully in most elec-
ton years for the past 72 years, of gath
ering the electoral votes in combina-
| ton of leading Eastern and Middle
| Western States.
Democrats face the problem of up
! setting the balance in some of these big
States, and their whole strategy is aimed
| in that direction.
The problem of Mr.. Roosevelt and his
| political aides, on a mathematical basis
| is less difficult than that of their oppo-
nents, provided the minds of the coun-
try's voters still are open.
With ISL votes regarded by them as
| Just as good as in the bag, their job is
| to find 105 others.
If New York is captured that would
| give Al and reduce the task to one of
| finding So more. Most polls show that
| California, Washington and Wisconsin
are running strongly pro-Roosevelt. Put
them in the bag and there would be AZ
| out of the So, leaving Is more to be
gathered. New Jersey would supply
| them or they could be supplied by a
| combination of Maryland with and
Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico with
3 each.
The Middle West, except for Wiscon-
sin, would be left out of combination
of that kind.
But New York is the main prize and
Y -.