Evening star., 1936-09-22

look In Septem- S#S%S &A
Der. There is D,.Y.-
definite relation
ship between these two extreme sec
tions of the political map.
Thus the Roosevelt fortunes poliu-
eally are at their highest point on
the Pacific Coast and at their lowest
on the Atlantic Coast. The strength
of the tide that is running for Roose-
velt In the West is not growing but
receding and the Landon momentum
In New England has an upward trend.
But apart from this theory. which
plainly indicates that the Middle West
will decide the election, one can find
rather conclusive proof Of the fact
that this will be close election and
that London has an even chance
to win by taking the Maine results
and carefully analyzing all previous
presidential elections in which We
have had a large electorate with wom-
en- voting.
Figures May Confuse.
It Is important at the outset not
70 confuse a September election with
q November election in Maine. They
are two separate and different things.
Any attempt to strike an average be-
tween the two, as statistical experts
have recently essayed, may be an in
teresting mathematical adventure but
1t ignores the main political charac-
teristics of the American electorate
namely, that a gubernatorial or by
election does not bring out the total
vote that comes out for President. Also
the vote which does come out for
eubernatorial contests that are not
held on the same day as presidential
elections split, to large extent, away
from party lines.
The myth that 81 per cent of the
vote Of Maine must be Republican in
September in order to assure a Re-
publican victory in the Nation in No
vember IS easily exploded when it Is
noted that in 1924, for example, the
Republican candidate for Governor
won in Maine by 1855 and polled
only 57.2 of the total vote in the
September election, and yet Calvin
Coolidge carried the State in Novem-
Der Of that year by polling 72 per cent
Of the total vote cast and his popular
vote in the Nation was IS per cent.
This year in the September cleo
tion q Republican Governor has won
by $4,000 votes and has polled ST.
per cent of the total vote. The indi-
cations are that Landon Will carry
Maine in November by about 7U,UOO
votes and will poll at least so per
cent OF the vote of the State.
To use a so per cent figure as the
estimate for November is being con-
servative, because the record shows
that a presidential nominee is much
stronger with the Republican voters
Of Maine than Republican nominee
for Governor, especially as the people
which to acquaint themselves with
the fundamental issues of the cam
paign.
Basis for Estimate.
To get so per cent does not appear
difficult for Landon because the three
CuuSl Cco1Olldl OAl IllC
publican ticket together polled 58.6
per cent, and it Is fair to assume that
Landon can make at least 3 per cent
gain in q month and half. Indeed,
he may take IS per cent of the No.
vember vote if We add 8 per cent to
the 81 per cent vote obtained by the
Republican nominee for Governor in
September, 1895. This might be JUS
tified as q calculat ation because the Re-
publican nominee for Governor in
1896 gained 8 per cent over the Re
publican nominee for Governor in
1882. Hence it will be contenoed that
It Is proper to add the same 8 per cent
to the Hoover vote Of 1892, which was
close to 81 per cent.
Whether the per cent gain is
added to the presidential vote of four
years ago or to the gubernatorial vote
this year the result Is the Same-it
comes to about q "a per cent vote for
the Republicans.
am excluding from consideration
the senatorial vote this year because
Brann avoided the New Deal issue and
won Republican votes by so doing.
The only clear-cut contest on the New
Deal was in the congressional and
eubernatorial races.
November Vote Table.
Here Is q table which shows how
the November vote in two out of three
instances reveals increased percent
ages for the Republican presidential
nominee IS compared with the sep
tember votes cast for the Republican
gubernatorial candidates in Maine. In
the third instance candidate with an
unusual personality poiled an extraor-
dinary vote In September as compared
with the subsequent November vote
for the presidency: