Evening star., 1936-09-06
Autumn Expected to Bring
No Great Change in
Business Trend.
LABOR UNREST TERMED
UNAVOIDABLE FACTOR
Fight for Better Work Conditions
and Wages Intensified by
Steady Recovery.
BY CHARLES F. SPEARE,
a-.I~t As~k aS rry.a ~ - ..

NEW YORK, September 5.-With
the end of the vacation season, which
has circulated more money over the
country than in years, it Is the normal
expectation that greater attention will
be given to business and that, accord
ingly, the charts of industrial produc-
ton and of merchandise distribution
will show decided upward trend.
However, 1t so happens that the
Summer season of 1885 has been
unique. From nearly every direction
have come reports Of not only q sus-
tanning of the earlier levels of output
and of sales but an increase In their
momentum. The business prophecies
suggest that this movement is to con-
tinue through the Autumn and will
not be much disturbed by the political
campaign.
It Is difficult to bring oneself to this
conclusion or to the Wall street argu-
ment that the stock market will hold
its position even II President Roose-
velt is reelected, which the betting
odds now forecast. This will, OF course.
depend somewhat on how far this
event may have been discounted prior
to election day.
Peak to Be Less Acute.
The last four months of the year
are traditionally notable for high
volume of production and for great
activity in distribution. This Is the
peak load" period of the railroads.
All of the great car shortages have
occurred within 1t. Before the advent
of the Federal Reserve system, money
rates then reached their maximum
levels for the year. Currency flowed
back and forth across the country.
Through better and quicker meth
DDS Of distribution, with q changed
monetary system and less buying to
stock up the shelves Of merchants,
the Autumn season has become more
like the others, to the advantage of
producer and consumer. For these
reasons, no great change in conditions
this month or next are likely to be
observed. relative to those of the past.
The most unfavorable aspect of the
industrial situation today has to dc
with labor and the increase in the
number of strikes. The business
barometer rises and the idle begin
to flll their old positions, unrest starts
for wages then are likely to be low
and resources exhausted. The &C
tivity centered on obtaining better
working conditions and higher COM
pensation increases in ratio to the
gain in industrial output.
1882 Figures Doubled.
Industrial production is nearly
double that of 1882. The dividends
Of the first six months of 1886 were
20 per cent greater than in 1885
Those for July were up so per cent,
and for August, about 80 per cent
The total dollar gain for the eight
months of the year to date was about
s450. 100000. Dividends are still low
however. compared with those Of 1929
Railroads, for instance. are today able
to distribute only about 80 per cent
of their 1880 dividends, which reached
about $500 100000.
Historically, labor unrest fades as
general prosperity, with active en-
ployment. prevails, but there are new
currents throughout the labor world
that have not existed in any other era
Of recovery from long depression
Significant among them is the large
number of professional and white
collar" members of society who are
supporting movements that originate
and are propelled among what are
commonly classed as radical" ele-
mentS.
Living costs always aggravate labor
unrest. While the rise in average
commodity prices in August was
trifing, in spite of the drought. it il
reported by Dun g. Bradstreet as the
highest at the beginning of any month
since February. 1880.
Bond Market Watched.
The investment market this week
has contained more elements Of In.
terest and Of significance than the
market for stocks. The largest cor
poration offering was at coupon rate
and price making it plain that nc
change had occurred in the temper OF
the banker or his client. The average
Of high-grade corporations bonds
equals the best in eight years. The
yield on municipal issues is the lowest
on record. The prices of all of the
outstanding long-term Treasury loans
touched new high levels.
This conceded with a revised
budget estimate by President Roose-
welt for the fiscal year 1897, showing
the smallest deficit during his term
and announcing that the new borrow
ings during the remaining 10 months
to June 80, next, would be only $780,
000, OF this amount, $400, 900, ,00C
Is to be subscribed at once. The
$5l4,ooo,ooo Of 11a per cent Treasury
notes are to be refunded.
There had been some hope that Sec
retary Morgenthau would avail him.
self Of this opportunity to liquidate
portion Of the loan, say $250, 900 900,
out Of the cash balance Of about
$1,500, ,000, 900 in the Treasury. This
would seem to have been the busi-
ness-like way Of dealing with commit
ments that have been rising at q SEN
sational rate and which demand re-
duction. It is one that has been
forced on all private bankers by the
Federal banking authorities for the
last four years.
tCcpyright. 1886. BY the North Americ an
Newspaper Alliance. nc.)