Evening star., 1936-12-06

speculation back in 1929, however, as
to where, when and if the saturation
point was reached, but the inexorable |
laws of economics stepped in and pre-
vented trial of any of the theories
Now, with the market rapidly ex-
panding, all the old arguments are
being revived and mulled over in De-
troit's board rooms and country club
locker rooms. The present automobile
market, however and the market of
the immediate future, will offer no
hint as to the solution of the satura-
ton point puzzle, for there is now a
vast backlog of automotive demand.
There is huge field of replacement,
which some observers believe may
reach as high as 100000 cars, rep
resenting what otherwise would have
been normal buying, which was not
done in the years from 1880 to 1885.
A T THE same time there Is the fact
no one in America knows just
how many automobiles the country is
capable Of buying or supporting. Pas
senger-car registrations number at
present about 26,000,000. That figure
will rise to 100000 in the next year,
but no one can say whether ultimate
ly it will be 28,000.000 or even 35,-
100000 or 40,000,000.
r. H. Grant, vice president of Cen
eral Motors in charge of distribution.
was quoted not long ago as estimating
the potential number of automobiles
,tfn hill IN,
q nation with that number Of cars
were replaced every seven years, the
annual sales for the industry would
be 100000 cars. And that would
be no more than the projected output
for 1887.
However, when automobile execu-
tives start to study the problem of
how many cars the Nation can alb
sorb they find themselves making new
calculations. Seven or eight years
ago they talked of buying power To-
day they start in another direction.
They agree, for instance, that, on
the charts, automobile sales will fol-
low the curves that business and ma
tional income take. But this specter
of saturation is floated against the
dark background of traffic deficiencies.
THE expansion of the automobile
industry is threatened by the re-
tarded growth of highway facilities.
The men who are looking into the fu-
ture for the industry foresee the day
when the movement of traffic, particu-
larly in the cities, will have grown
so slow and the hazards of driving in
creased so much that the automobile
for passenger use will have ceased to
be an asset.
Road building and streets improve
ments" as one automobile executive
puts it, "have not kept pace with the
chronological improvement in the au-
tomobile. We have made the automo-
bile itself desirable to own without
advancing the facilities for the move
ment Of traffic and establishing the
best safeguards for highway efficiency"
The number of two-car families has
increased in the last 10 years from
100000 to about 1850, 900. The brakes
seem to have been put on the trend
toward two-car ownership, however.
This is explained by the inability of
women to adjust themselves to growing
traffic hazards. Women are the chief
users Of the second car in a family.
But when traffic gets so heavy that
the movement Of cars is impeded,
drivers-and particularly the women
seek other means of transportation.
Automobile executives point to the
situation in New York, where cross
town traffic moves only from three to
five miles an hour at certain times
Congestion reduces the potential mar
ket for cars. New York is cited as an
example Of an area where the num-
ber of cars in relation to per capita
income is below the corresponding
figures for certain other urban dis
tricts-Los Angeles and Detroit, for
instance, where traffic moves more
easily.
MARROW streets, bottle-necks, ex-
cess number of traffic lights, alb
sence of at least half a dozen trunk
arteries in each metropolitan area
these are the things which the auto
mobile manufacturers insist will throt-
tie the growth of car buying and
create the saturation point for the au-
tomobile.
The diversion of gasoline taxes to
purposes unrelated to automobile uses
Is blamed to large degree for the
failure Of highway development to keep
pace with the enlarged role the auto
mobile plays in modern life. In 1885,
State gasoline tax and motor registra-
ton receipts used for purposes other
than highway financing reached Sat-
142,2os. In 1880, only eight States
diverted automotive funds, but, by
1885. this number had increased to 80.
Cities similarly permitted traffic
abuses to 60 unheeded during depres-
sion days, through lack of funds.
In the United States, today, exist
more than 100000 miles of rural
highway. The sum of $400, ,000, 900
will have been spent this year for
maintaining trunk lines. The motor
industry, envisioning the day when
the ownership of a car in the popu-
lated areas will have ceased to be a
pleasure, insists that more attention
be given to urban highway projects.
More roads? Yes! but roads and
streets that stimulate the flow of
traffic, not merely concrete strips that
bisect the countryside.
The whole problem Of saturation
can be summed up in two sentences.
The men who guide the automobile
industry are not worried today about
the purchasing power of America.
They are worried about the ability of
American streets and highways to
handle an ever-growing burden. of
traf1c.
THIS very problem faced by the
- automobile manufacturers Is
slated for serious discussion next
month. More than 10000 members