Evening star., 1936-07-12
PAST FIGURES INDICATE
REPUBLICANS CAN WIN
Switch of Million Votes From 20 to '32
Can Be Repeated-In Other
DirectiOn-Obser Saws.

idential nomination-but after the
nomination Is actually made. loyalty
supports the party nominee. For ex-
ample, in the primaries last Spring
many a Republican voted for Col.
Knox and against Gov. Landon, but
Is now happily and energetically sup
porting Gov. Landon for the Novem-
Der election.
But the circumstance in which
many Democrats last Spring voted
against Mr.. Roosevelt for the Demo-
cratic nomination were quite abnor-
mal-they were unique
Early in the Spring a New York
Democrat Of fine record and good
antecedents. Col. Henry Breckenridge.
announced that he would oppose Mr.
Roosevelt for the Democratic pre-i-
Dental nomination. He had no faint
est notion of winning, nor even OF
carrying single State. nor getting a
single delegate. He entered his name
in only few States in the East. H,
had no organization to speak of and
made no campaign except that h"
himself made few speeches in thre
of the States in which he entered
Purpose Understood.
do not know that Mr. Breckinridc
said in so many words that he was net
really candidate for the presidential
nomination. but everybody under
stood. His purpose was merely one OF
proteSt-he wanted TO give to Demo-
Gratis who were aroused against tn
New Deal an opportunity to expre,5
themselves.
Under the circumstances, that Col.
Breckenridge should make any shown,
at all is remarkable. The whole Demo-
cratic organization was at work getting
out votes for Mr. Roosevelt. AL
thought they knew there was no con-
test, they wished to make as large a
showing as possible. not against CO..
breckenridge. for most of the Demo-
cratic workers never heard of him, but
they wanted to roll up big demon
stratlon for Mr.. Roosevelt for the
sake Of the moral effect on the country.
and especially on the Republicans
Everywhere there were candidates for
the Democratic nomination for minor
local Offices; all these we're getting
Democratic voters to the polls, and all
who went to the polls would normally,
as a matter of course. vote for Mr..
Roosevelt for the presidential nomi-
nation.
Considering the condition, Col.
Breckenridge made remarkable
showing. In Maryland he got 1880
votes as against Mr.. RooSevelt's 100.
269. That is. in the Maryland pri-
mary Col. Breckenridge got more
than one out Of every six votes. And.
If one out of every six Democrats
votes against Mr.. Roosevelt in Novem-
Der he would be beaten infallibly.
OF course, at this point We must
speculate on one matter. Will all of
those Democrats who voted against
Mr.. Roosevelt in the primary vote be
against him again in November7 AS
to that We can only say that the
Democrats who went to the polls to
vote for the unknown Col. Breck-
inridge must have had strong feeling
against Mr.. Roosevelt And even if
not all of them will vote against
Mr.. Roosevelt in November; even If,
let US say, only half of them vote
against Mr.. Roosevelt. and quarter of
them refrain from voting at all. and a
quarter of them swallow their feelings
and vote for Mr. RooSevelt-even if
it should turn out that way. 1t will
be serious for Mr.. Roosevelt. Besides,
there are many more Democrats op-
posed to Mr.. Roosevelt in addition to
the ones who voted in the primaries
for Mr.. Breckinridge. Many Demo-
Gratis opposed to MI. Roosevelt never
heard of Col. Breckinridge's candidacy
and did not know they had that op-
portunity to express their protest.
Record in New Jersey.
In New Jersey in the Democratic
primary Col. Breckinridge got 1886
votes. New Jersey happens to be a
State in which Mr.. Roosevelt was not
entered in the primary. so there Is no
way Of directly comparing Col. Breck-
| inridge's vote with Mr.. Roosevelt's.
But let us go back to the 1892 election
in New Jersey. In that year Mr..
Roosevelt's majority was 30,9Sl. 1t
will be observed that if next November
all Of Mr.. Breckinridge's 1896 votes
should be cast against Mr.. Roosevelt.
the latter's majority Of 1882 will be
wiped out.
Actually the number of anti-New
Deal Democrats is not even family in
dicated by the vote Col. Breckinridge
was able to get through a merely per-
Sonal campaign over a small area
without any organization to speak Of
The whole number OF Democrats who
will vote against Mr.. Roosevelt-the
Democrats who follow ex-Gov. Smith;
the larger number who do not neces-
sarily follow ex-Gov. Smith, but who
oppose Mr.. Roosevelt for the same rea-
sons that Smith opposes him; the
Democrats who feel like the other
prominent Democratic dissenters,
Lewis Douglas, ex-Gov. Ely Of Massa-
chusettS and others; the Democrats
who are appalled, by the New Deals
attitude on State rights and about the
Constitution and the courts; the DEM
ocrats who fear imitation and there
fore fear for their savings bank ac-
counts and insurance policies-the
sum of these must make up nearly all
the conservative Democrats there are
Except those who are Office holders
or otherwise direct beneficiaries of the
New Deal, and except in the South.)
Anyhow, If as many as 100000
Democrats vote against Mr.. Roosevelt.
and If, in addition, there are as many
as 100000 Republicans who in 1882
voted for Mr.. Roosevelt, but will this
year return to their own party-the
sum of those two groups alone would
be much more than enough to defeat
Mr.. Roosevelt in November.
tCopyright. 1850