Evening star., 1936-11-05

and can be only If Mz&$#N
partisanship is NNS
buried and cam
paign bitterness Is &ss<s1S'
brushed aside. DAVID lawrence
The landslide was a big surprise, be-
cause no straw vote or poll or specific
forecast Of electoral votes came any,
where near the final figure. Jim Farley
alone was right.
Last Saturday, In presenting 270
electoral votes as my irreducible mini.
mum for Mr.. Roosevelt. without the
necessity Of any Northern States east
Of the Mississippi except Indiana. I
wrote these paragraphs:
Jim Farley tells me he is convinced
that Mr.. Roosevelt will do what Mr..
the uncertain States I have listed, and
this would, of course, justify an elec-
toral maximum of 3e7 for Mr.. Roose-
Velt to Mr.. Landons 1874.
'It is from that point Of view the
Farley predictions are made, and judg-
ing by the fact that all these States
have political machines of his creation
and Of Mr.. Roosevelt's cooperation in
the distribution Of public funds, I
wouldn't be at all surprised If Mr..
Farley knew more about how many
votes he can get out than anybody
else in America"
No Poll Touched Figure.
None Of us-not even the Gallup
poll, which, while Of course predicting
the Roosevelt election. listed IA States
with 204 electoral votes as too close
for accurate prediction" - expressed
any feeling of certainty ahead of time
that anything like As States would be
carried by Mr.. Roosevelt or by such
overwhelming votes.
We expected the popular majority to
be narrow. which usually means gains
In Congress for the minority party,
while landslide in popular majority
for President usually means gains In
Congress for the ma jority party.
Why was Jim Farley right?
Throughout my trip realized that
there were three large groups Of voters
whose strength was not measured ac-
eurately by any polls:
/. The relief vote and the vote of
those receiving A. A. A. benefits or
help through the Home Owners Loan
Corp.
2. The organized labor vote.
8. The colored vote
Here are three elements involving
enough votes to. change an election
from a close race to landslide But
these three groups could not be
counted upon unless one knew exactly
what percentages would be persuaded
actually to go to the polls on election
day.
Had Army Of OfIiceholders.
Jim Farley had command Of 50 State
political machines. They comprised
the largest number Of oticeholders
ever aligned with q single political
party in the history OF the United
States. In addition there were organ
ization machines Of Federal ofice-
holders In every one of the 48 States
constituting the largest number Of
non-civl service employees the Federal
Government has ever had.
Farley could count on his organiza-
tions to get out the vote-not only
those receiving direct pay roll bene-
flts but indirect as well. As chairman
Of the Roosevelt Campaign Committee,
he had statistical analysis Of every
State showing exactly where a gain
would put the State safely into the
Roosevelt column.
When I talked with I'M Farley last
week. he insisted with all the sincerity
at his command that the New Deal
was going to win every State but three
Maine. Vermont and New Hamp-
shire. He was uncertain about New
Hampshire. While subsequently claim
ing South Dakota publicly, he told me
privately he was uncertain about South !
Dakota and the returns bear out that
the race there was closer than In
other States.
The election result is O tribute TO
the masterful organization work done
by Jim Farley. He was not content
to rely on organizations on election
day. He used them to get the vote
registered, too. Any study Of registra-
ton statistics will show where the
landslide came from-it came from
cities and urban centers and from
those rural areas where the A. A. A.
checks and benefits were distributed.
In the cities and urban centers, the
labor vote was strong ally Of the
New Deal political organizations and
worked side by side in q common en-
deavor to increase the Roosevelt poll.
G. o. p. Used To Do It.
The old line Republicans cannot
Justly say q word In criticism Of all
this. When they were in power they
had powerful organizations in various
States and cities from which they
piled up landslide majorities. Had
they been In power after q depression
and had they possessed a $4,000, ,oo0,-
600 fund In an election year like this.
they, too, might have used it for vote
getting purposes. don't condone
such action, but that's American
politics.
It would be wrong to assume that
votes in any large number are bought.
But the campaign just closed shows
how large groups Of voters are in
fiuenced by the distribution Of bene-
fits by the Federal Government. It
only takes 0 change Of about 100000
votes to produce . landslide. The
Federal Government had direct flnan-
cial transactions with more than
10000, 900 citizens in the last three
years and . half.
The Republicans have always been
strong in the rural counties. but this
time A. A. A. pay checks cut in on
their vote, while IN the cities labor's
agsressiveness on behalf Of Mr.. Roose-
welt, together with the skillful organi-
ration Of the relief vote and the col
ored vote was q combined activity
that could not be beaten.
Underestimated Organization.
I realized that this potential vote
existed and referred to 1t at times In
NV DISPATCHES, but ! frankly did not