Evening star., 1936-10-14

Wr1Ce 1Or OCCOUeT ~
31-the Saturday p,v,a 1.xr.nc..
before election.
the Saturday before election.
I have said that the election looked
fifty-fifty to me. I based 1t on the
way the voters we're dividing in the
States already visited. but the seven
States yet to be surveyed comprise
l64 votes in the Electoral College, and,
despite what one may find in the
West, the outcome in those seven
States east of the Mississippi is every
thing to the electoral result.
Thus, assuming that Landon carries
certain close States west Of the Mis-
sissippi, I have worked out one set OF
electoral tables which show that he
could lose Illinois, or Indiana, or
Michigan or Ohio, respectively, and
be elected. On another calculation,
ne could lose certain Western States
that are at present doubtful but lean
Ing in his direction, and yet be elected.
Whatever combination is used mathe-
matically and with knowledge OF po-
litical trends, the large electoral vote
States play a decisive part. That's
why I leave them always for study in
the last three weeks of october.
G. O. p. Hopeful.
I might add here that outside OF
the border States have not been in
q single State which the local Repub-
lican leaders would privately concede
as lost, even though in many in
stances an uphill fight was frankly
admitted.
Anybody who thinks the election is
~in the bag need only observe that
since the nominating conventions last
June and notwithstanding Nation
wide radio hook-ups, President Roose-
welt has travelled more miles than
his opponent. Likewise the States
visited are for the most part in the
doubtful or close category and might
go either way by a small margin Of
votes.
There are three ways that this elec-
tion may turn out-not just two. I
am speaking now as to effect on busi-
ness and future trends in American
politics.
First, Mr.. Roosevelt might win by
large electoral vote but a small mar
gin Of popular votes. This would ac-
centuate the protest idea and influ-
ence Democratic Congressman to be
Independent Of White House control.
Second. Landon might win by
close margin Of popular votes and yet
comfortable majority Of electoral
votes.
Third. Mr.. Roosevelt or Mr.. Landon
might win by big margin Of popular
votes.
Result to Be Close.
am prepared even at this stage Of
the campaign to discount the third
possibility as highly improbable. This
is a close election with respect to
popular votes and I would not be
surprised if out of the $4,000, 900 votes
expected to be cast, the margin of
the winner Is not in excess Of 3,000,-
600.
Everywhere have gone in the
West, and I see signs of it in the East,
too, the popular vote majorities which
Mr.. Roosevelt had four years ago are
going to be reduced from 80 to so per
cent. This means q lineup Of Re-
publicans and Democrats more like
normal years, but with such increased
registration as to make the total fig
ures much larger even though the
margins reckoned in percentages will
be narrower than usual.
In some States we will witness the
phenomenon of Landon getting a
minority Of the votes and yet cap
turing the electoral vote because the
Lemke vote will subtract just enough
from the Roosevelt column to give
Landon plurality.
Not the least important is the size
Of the protest vote against the Roose-
welt Administration, even If the Pres
ident Is reelected. It will probably
bring In its wake increased Repub-
lican membership in Congress, many
Republican Governors and State Of
6cerS.
A Won1an's Strategy.
In this connection was mucn in
terested the other day in a letter re-
ceived from woman in Arizona. 1t
was as follows:
~ hesitated q long while before
writing you. My husband didn't think
I should, which rather convinced me
ought to. Anyway, here is my way
Of looking at the forthcoming elec-
ton.
II listen to the radio and hear all
the speeches. When the Democratic
speakers get through think they are
right. When the Republican speak.
ers get through think they art
right.
Nov four years ago I voted fol
Mr.. Hoover. I think he got q pretty
raw deal. This year I have decided
TO vote for Mr.. Roosevelt. But I be
lieve just enough of what I hav
heard on the radio about the issue
90 that I am going to vote for al
other Republicans, so that they cal
watch him."
She has Just the opposite idea from
those who are urging that Iandol
couldn't do anything If elected, be
cause while he might have a Re
publican House he wouldn't have
Republican Senate. The fact is tha
under our system Of Government
was intended for the Congress t
act as 0 check on the executive. Sen
ator Carter Glass, Democrat. blame
Congress for giving Mr.. Roosevelt
such extensive powers and 30 mucl
money to spend. I believe that
the election result is close as to pop
ular vote. Mr.. Roosevelt will not con
troll the Democratic Senate, but tina
We shall see q substantial insurgenc
on the Democratic side. Senator
study election returns minutely, an
II they see the Roosevelt tide receo
ing they will get on the band WACO
for 1898 by discovering what are tn
reasons for the 1886 protest vote.
Likewise, American business vi
feel less disturbed If the election re