Evening star., 1936-04-05
BY WALTER DURANTY.

NEW YORK, April 4 (N.A.N.AD.-
The war danger in the Far East seems
greater than ever. The latest clash
between the forces of Manchukuo and
outer Mongolia has been of so serious
a character as almost to convey the
impression that war already is begun.
According to the Japanese, there have
been more than a hundred such
clashes in the last year, and every
thing seems to indicate that they are
increasing rather than diminishing in
violence. Does this mean that war is
imminent between "Manchukuo" and
'Mongolia?"
Vast issues depend upon the answer
to this question, because the world
knows that "Manchukuo" means
Japan, and now knows also that
outer Mongolia" means the U. S. S.
R. In the historic interview which
Stain gave to Roy Howard last
month, it was stated that the Soviet
Union would regard aggression against
Mongolia as a casus belli. Stain never
speaks without meaning what he says.
1t is clear. therefore, that If Japan
really wants to attack outer Mongolia
the result will be war with the U. S.
S. r. Does Japan want this war or
not?
In an attempt to answer this ques-
ton one has to consider briefly the
motives that impel a nation to SO
hazardous a step as war.
First. one may put greed, the de-
sire for new territory. or expansion
as it is called. Does this motive ami
mate Japan? The answer must be
yes, because in the last five years we
nave seen the Japanese deliberately in
wade North China and complete the
seizure of all Chinese territory north
of the Great Wall.
Internal Unrest Is Motive.
A second powerful motive is internal
unrest, the fear of social disturbance
which might be counteracted by the
patriotic fervor which war produces.
A singularly dangerous experiment
this, but one that has been tried be-
fore and may well be tried again.
A third factor which makes for wars
is pressure of population, when living
conditions become so dificult through
overcrowding that an outlet-or a
blood -let-is necessary.
In Japan all these three factors are
evident. As result of q greatly in
creased population. the living condi-
tions of the Japanese peasantry-and
for that matter, the Japanese workers
have become nearly intolerable. Not
even Japanese peasants like selling
their daughters into brothels War as
as an alternative could not be worse
than that.
Finally, there exists in Japan a
military-naval clique whose influence
Is extremely great. They are reckless
men whose ambitions are unlimited. It
must not be forgotten that this power
full section of the Japanese leaders has
a fanatic belief in the power and in
vulnerability of Japan. In the last 40
years they have fought three victori-
GUS wars, first against China, then
against czarist Russia, and then
against the Germans at Tsingtao, in
1915.
Forget Importance Of Foes.
That the China they defeated be-
fore the end of the last century was q
mere shell appears to escape them.
That the Russia they defeated in Man
churia was utterly corrupt and in
efficient. without adequate transport
and with comparatively small forces.
does not enter their calculations. They
forget, too, that the small German
colony of Tsingtao was a very different
thing from the Kaiser's armies that
stormed across France in 1914.
Therefore. they have an incredible
confidence IN themselves, and 1t is
this fact that makes the present situa-
ton so dangerous; at first sight it