Evening star., 1936-09-13
Peak Likely This Month or
in October With Sea.
sonal Upturn.
TOTAL FOR 8 MONTHS
SCARS FAR ABOVE 1885
About 1854, 600 More Carloads
Move Than in Same Period
of Last Year.
BY J. G. DONLEY.

NEW YORK, September 12.-Rail-
road tarloadings are hitting around
the peak of the year. And after the
crest Is passed, it is the usual thing
for a decline to set in. running over
the end Of the year.
Loadings of revenue freight have
been running pretty well above the
700,000-car weekly total ever since
the second week in July, and, for the
latest week, the total approximated
765.000 cars. For the first eight
months of this year, about 1854, 900
more carloads of revenue freight were
moved than In the like period of 1885
September and October, with crops
coming to market and a seasonal ac-
celeration in number of lines, is
the season of freight traffic records.
In the last 18 years-from 1918 to
1885, inclusive-the peak of weekly
freight movements has been reached
eight times in October and seven
times in September. In the other
three years, and among them were
1888 and 1884. along with 1925, the
top week came in August. Last year,
the peak was attained in the week Of
October II, with a total of 734,274
cars loaded.
Regarded as Guess.
Observers of freight movements
have been predicting that this years
top will be around the SOC, ,000-car
level. But that, OF course, is something
of a guess. On past performances,
however, it is good bet that the
high record for the year will be set
this month or next.
In its weekly reports Of revenue
freight loaded, the car service divi-
sion Of the Association of American
Railroads classifies the commodities
handled under eight main headings.
In only one Of those divisions-mis-
cellaneous-was the peak yearly
movement reached in the peak year of
the last previous business boom, 1929.
Movements Of ore, forest products,
coal, coke and live stock all reached
their record peaks in 1928. Grain
and grain products had q record year
in 1924. Merchandise, /. c. /. Oess
than carload lots) set its high in 1926.
The largest freight movement of all
commodities for any year came in
1925, when the total was 53,098,819
carloads. The 1929 total was under
$4,000, 900. and from that point there
was a fall of almost so per cent to
the depression low of 28,179,952. In
the last three years, the annual gain
in loadings has averaged around l.
10000 cars, to q total of over 3d.
100000 last year.
Drop Laid to Depression.
When we come down to a study of
individual commodity movements, the
significant thing is that the decline
in railroad freight movements was
due to the depression in large part
and only a small degree may be laid
to competition from trucks and other
forms of transportation.
That fact was brought out not long
ago in an analysis prepared by Lob
dell & Company. stock exchange
aAShA6SASs ~ " % 1Ouk1O tlldt, III 1900,
carloadings of mine products, lum-
Der, manufactures and miscellaneous
commodities in carload lots-which
are shipped in bulk and are subject to
only a minimum Of competition-ag-
gregated $50 per cent Of the total
freight traf1ic handled. In the same
year, grain products, live stock and
merchandise, !. C. lin which truck
competition is particularly severe-ac-
counted for 31.1 per cent of the total.
Carriers Hold Place.
Going back to 1926, the peak year
for total freight traffic, the analysis
found that the percentages were 674
per cent and 32.6 per cent, respec-
lively. Those percentages indicate
that there may have been some loss
in the second group Of commodities,
but the increase in the ratio of
products which are in the durable
goods class shows that the railroads
are holding their own as the prime
means of transportation in heavy,
bulk products.
The conclusion is inescapable that
q further recovery in the volume of
construction and in the production
of durable goods should result in a
further substantial gain in railway
freight trafic.
For instance, the coal movement
was over 9,500.000 carloads in its
peak year, 1928, against 6,147,000 last
year. Coke made a total Of over Ill.,
900 carloads in 1928, against fewer
than $4,000 last year. And in the
building activity of 1928, forest prod
ucts accounted for nearly 3,745.000
cars, against about 1883 900 In 1885.
(Copyright, 1861