Evening star., 1936-10-22

ing alarm among
the Republicans to such an extent
that many leading Republicans out
side the State privately began to be-
lieve that Pennsylvania was a de-
batable area and a doubtful one.
had heard the reports before I
came to Pennsylvania and I was
pretty well convinced in my own
mind II the Keystone State were
really close, there wasn't a remote
chance for Landon to win the ma
tional election. If he couldn't stand
up in Pennsylvania, which came
through the 1882 hurricane in the
Republican column, then it seemed
to me there must be tide running
In huge volume for Mr.. Roosevelt.
Rumors Of Strength Probed.
Yet, in all the other States have
visited, the New Deal tide has been
plainly receding and 1882 majorities
we're definitely being diminished. Why,
then, should Pennsylvania be dif-
ferent?
The first news that greeted me
on arrival at Pittsburgh was that
Allegheny County showed a very de-
.cided trend toward Roosevelt. This
was a normally" Republican county.
But on looking up 1882 records, I
found that Mr.. Roosevelt carried
Allegheny County by $1,000 votes.
What was the estimate usually heard
for 1885 among Republicans and
Democrats? An average of all the
estimates indicated majority OF
somewhere between $4,000 and $4,000
for Roosevelt.
I took the high figure Of $4,000
and prepared to look elsewhere in the
State. was told the soft coal counties
in the southwestern part of the State
were very strongly for Roosevelt be-
cause of the John Lewis influence.
I got in touch with well-informed
persons in those counties, persons who
knew the local trend. I asked if Mr..
Roosevelt could count on an increased
majority there. The answer given
me uniformly was that Mr.. Roosevelt
would get less of a margin than IN
1882.
Registration Gives Clue.
I asked for some tangible evidence
of this reasoning. One reply was that
the registration of figures showed the
margin to be about the same or less
than four years ago, but no excess.
Figures were adduced, showing that,
in the 1884 and 1885 Statewide cleo
tions, the New Deal party strength
was materially diminished, as COM
pared with 1882.
The tide, in other words, is running
back to Republicanism in Pennsyl-
vania, and this is Overwhelmingly so
in the central counties. There is no
real gain for Roosevelt, except in
Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and the soft
coal counties. Even in the anthracite
coal counties there are signs that
Mr.. Roosevelt has made no sensa-
tional gain over his 1882 vote.
Let's put it another way: Does
anybody believe that the laboring man
was for Hoover in 1882? Unqueston-
ably. Hoover was unpopular with the
very strong groups who are said to-
day to be so strongly for Mr.. Roosevelt.
Where, then, does the accretlon
come? It must come among the labor
groups and among the Negroes. Al
lowing for an increase OF perhaps
$1,000 votes in Allegheny County and
a possible decrease in the Republican
majority in Philadelphia, We find that
the four counties just outside OF Phlla-
delphia are going to give Landon
bigger majorities than they gave
Hoover. This should more than onset
the gains of Mr.. Roosevelt in Allegheny
County and in Philadelphia.
Rest of State Landon's.
Then the rest Of the State will pile
I'D the real majority. That's where
I,andon gains are so extensive that
25O0O0 majority is minimum, and
would not be surprised to see the
figures 20 far beyond that amount.
The actual excess of Republican reg
istration over New Deal registration
Is about 100000 this year, according
to official figures.
I made inquiry as to why the rural
districts and towns were SO strongly
6nLl.HOOS6NelG. liC AaiPASooAo w
tanned is that people are beginning to
feel there is an atmosphere Of loose
morals around the whole Roosevelt
regime. It proceeds from these basic
accusations:
/. That the figures on the official
statements about expenses are juggled
to mislead the public. Mr.. Hoover's
speech on this point made a deep
impression.
q. That the relief scandals on W.
p. A. must be worse than Is being
charged or the New Dealers would
permit an investigation. They have
stifed the investigation in this State.
3. That there is kind OF con-
spiracy to change the form Of Gov
ernnent and circumvent the Federal
Constitution.
I. That the expenditures Of Govern