Evening star., 1936-10-01

ClSm OF the pOllS
from both Democrats and Republicans
even on occasions when the polls gave
their particular side an advantage.
There is, of course, nothing mystic
fious about polls. have confidence in
the integrity and fairness OF conduct
of every one of the major polls being
taken, and yet would not be surprised
to fino them far afield of the natural
result when we read the final returns
on November 4. I do not necessarily
expect them to be wrong, but think
can prove why they could be wrong.
In the first place the basic principle
IN sampling, which has cost direct-by-
mail companies literally hundreds of
millions of dollars to discover and be
guided bv, is that the smaller the test.
numerically speaking. the greater the
chance of error and that the wider the
list used the less chance there Is OF
gauging the quality thereof.
Possibility of Error.
I do not think that 100000 or 150,-
900 personal interviews or ballots con-
stitute sufficiently large group to test
out IS, 900 900 voters. and that's about
the number who may vote in this cleo
ton. For this reason I would say that
DR.. Gallup's poll may be right. but 1t
may prove very wide of the mark SIM
ply on the basis of the small number
canvasSed.
This is also. in my opinion, a criti-
cism OF the Literary Digest poll at this
stage of the game. If the Digest should
receive, out of its 100000 ballots
mailed, replies or votes from 2,250.000
people, that would be very satisfac-
tory percentage and a clear-cut SAM
pie. BY the end of October, If this
thing near 1t, would be prepared to
accept the Digest poll as indicative of
the popular vote.
AS for the electoral vote. all polls
start with a handicap factor over
which they have no control, namely
that a President Of the United States
has been elected with less than a
majority of the popular vote. In
some instances the margin OF the win
ming candidate has been very slight
on the popular vote side and yet
landslide on the electoral vote. Thus,
in 1908, Mr.. Taft had only about 81
per cent of the total vote cast, but
he had 321 electoral votes to Mr..
Bryan's 1872, and, to this day, most
people have forgotten that less than
100000 votes out of 14,887,1 was
r-of
This brings up point on which the
statistical side Of a poll may fall
down, even though conducted with
almost scientific accuracy so far as an
actual sampling by numbers is con-
cerned. I know that DR.. Gallup's
poll is given good deal of weight
throughout the country because he
has attempted to overcome one of the
difficulties of polling by mail, namely,
that certain classes of persons are
supposed not to answer circular mail.
And certain classes of persons, on the
other hand, it should be noted, do not
let interviewers in the house who
come to ring doorbells these days.
Many People Reticent.
have personally interviewed on my
travels various kinds of people with
out disclosing my identity as news
paperman and find reluctance to
tell political Affiliations or intentions
with respect to the coming election
I have been very careful not to lead
the witness, SO to speak. and yet
find many people reticent. It has
always been more or less difficult to
get at the independent vote, though
the lifelong Republican or lifelong
Democrat may be more outspoken.
But even assuming that all the in
terviewers employed are sufficiently
skilled to elicit frank answers, would
say that any survey based on 1000
or 100000 runs the risk of ignoring
geographical rather than class quality.
Indeed, 1t is not enough to know what
persons in different classes of income
think about candidates, but what
people think in certain sections of
certain pivotal States.
That's one reason why political
leaders who have confided in me
have pointed to inaccuracies, as they
see it, in both the Digest and the
Gallup polls. And, personally. I give
much weight to the judgment of ex-
perienced political leaders. I say this
because I have found their collective
Judgment OF the record to be fairly
accurate over q period Of years.
One reason for this, of course, is
that they know the political factors
in their own States. something that
the polls cannot possibly encompass
and which they do not profess to
include. State after State might
show a majority on a mailed ballot
or on a substantial number of per-
sonal interviews and yet cast its elec-
toral vote in the opposite direction
just because the preponderant vote
In certain counties underwent q shift.
What the polls are valuable for is
in showing the changes and shifts
Of persons who voted one way last
time and are planning to change this
time. That's significant trend and,
If sampled numerically on q large
enough scale. is very strong indi-
Gator OF the possible result in the
Nation as q whole.
Sun Poll Peculiar.
But what about the Baltimore Sun
poll? Here Is an instance Of very
large and intensive mailing which
went to every registered voter in
Maryland, thus taking into account
sectional variations within State.
I believe the Baltimore Sun adopted
every safeguard possible to see that |
ballots could not be counterfeited or
tampered with. Yet there is some |
thing strange about q mailed result |
which brings in so per cent replies. |
That Is altogether too much based on |
any statistical experience. People
Just do not respond to mailed circu-
lars on O so per cent basis unless /