Evening star., 1936-05-03
By BERTRAM BENEDICT.

NOV. LANDON seems at pres
ent, six weeks before the
Y Republican National Con-
vention, so far In the lead
for the presidential nomination that
it is a case Of Landon against the
field Some Of the Kansas Governor Is
supporters fear this situation makes
their man more vulnerable, inasmuch
as his advanced position tempts the
other candidates to combine against
him. The wide lead he enjoys. how
ever, is by no means unprecedented in
campaign history, and If past records
have any prophetic significance, they
give Landon more than fair prom
Use of winning out against the field at
Cleveland.
In the "a major party conventions
that have been held since the Civil
War the candidate who led on the
first ballot won the nomination in Is
cases. In general, the records of past
conventions show that the odds in
favor of the candidate who is sup
ported by the largest number Of dele
gates on the first ballot are about
7 to 1.-The odds being practically the
same in both the Republican and
Democratic parties. The exceptions
on the Republican side of the picture.
were Blaine in 1876, Grant in 1880
Sherman in 1888 and Wood In 1920
the respective victors in those years
having been Hayes. Garfield, Harrison
and Harding. Among the Demo
Gratis. Pendleton in 1868 lost on the
twenty second ballot to Seymour OF
New York, who had not even been
considered for the nomination; Bland
lost to Bryan in 1896; Clark to Will
son in 1912 and McAdoo had the ex-
perience twice. losing TO Cox in 1920
and to Davis in 1924.
Only in three of these nine cases,
however, was the defeated first-bal-
lot leader in a position comparable
to Landons: that is, far in the lead
during the pre-convention period and
subjected to the strong and deter
mined opposition of his rivals. This
was true of Bland, Blaine and Pen
dleton.
Become Kingmakers.
Candidates who run second and
third on the first ballot rarely win
the nomination for themselves, but
they often have the satisfaction OF
being the kingmaker. They hold a
powerful bloc of votes and, while
not strong enough TO snatch victory
for themselves. they are sometimes
able to swing the nomination to an
other candidate after the leader has
lost his grip. Borah and Knox seem
likely to fill this role at the coming
convention. Smith was in second
place in 1924. On the first ballot
McAdoo led with 43ll2, whilt
Smith had 241. The ultimate vic
tor. Davis, was seventh. with g.
votes out Of the required 1872. Or
the eighth ballot he was still a poo
third and subsequently dropped II
fourth. 1t was only when the Nc
Adoo forces broke, on the Tooth bal.
lot. that Davis edged into seconc
place. Smith lost most of his dele
gates to Davis on the next try and OF
the l03d ballot Davis received the nee
essary two-thirds Garner, runnin;
third in 1882. decided the issue by re
leasing his delegates to Roosevelt oil
the fourth ballot.
In only two cases since the Civi
War has the candidate who stool
second on the first ballot won tn,
nomination. Bryan turned the tricl
in 1896 and Wilson in 1912 Cox il
the only third-place candidate Il
have gone on to victory. Thus It ap
pears that if the convention passes owe
the leading candidate. it is more like
ly to nominate a dark horse thar