Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1936-02-23
COP. SITUATION ASSUMES
TUC-OF.WAR COMPLEXION
Observer Sees Possibility of Borah,
Landon and Knox Killing Each Other
Off and Outsider Named.

balance, a deadlock. The balance re-
mains for few ballots, like two even
ly-matched prize fighters, both tired
out, unable to make progress against
each other. able only to glare at each
other angrily.
At this point new candidate be-
gins to move forward, one not in
volved in the tug of war. The origi-
nal contenders, tired out, both rush to
welcome the newcomer.
That is the ordinary way in which
the tug-of-war pattern works out in
a political convention. That is the
way former Gov. Lowden and Gen.
Leonard Wood wore each other out
in 1920, the prize going to one who
in the beginning had only a hand
full of delegates, Senator Harding.
In the present case the tug of war
between Senator Borah and on the
other side Gov. Landon and Col.
Knox is even more likely to come
to an end in which neither side
wins, in which the prize goes to an out
slider. For in the present case it is not
merely men who are deadlocked with
each other. 1t is also ideas. It will be
the liberals against the conservatives.
After these two groups, and the can
didates who are their respective SYM
bols, have opposed each other for
several weeks of primaries and sew
eral days of balloting in a hot June
convention-after all that struggle,
it will be realized by everybody that
it would be imprudent to nominate
any of the candidates who have been
the symbols of the struggle. It will
be felt that if Gov. Landon or Col.
Knox were nominated, Senator b.
rah's followers might refuse to vote
the Republican ticket in the ensuing
contest against the Democrats. Sim
ilarly it will be felt that If Senator
Borah were nominated. conservative
Republicans would have no heart for
the ensuing campaign against the
Democrats.
Who Will Outsider Be?
In short, a prolonged struggle be-
tween Senator Borah, and on the
other hand Gov. Landon and Col.
Knox, would be strongly character
istic example of the tug -of-war type,
in which the prize goes to an outsider.
IT the present situation works out
that way, who will be the fortunate
newcomer who dissolves the deadlock
and carries off the priZe2
If the tug of war develops, if Sem
ator Borah kills off Gov Landon and
Col. Knox while those two kill off
Senator Borah-in that case whom
would the convention turn to?
1t would have to be some one who,
throughout the tug of war, had no
part in it, some one who was unobtru-
sively on the sidelines, some one who
had not incurred the hostility of
either contender. One man who, in
the present situation. might fit the
specifications is Senator Arthur VAN
denberg of Michigan. Senator VAN
denberg would not have been involved
in the tug of war. Neither side would
think OF him as an enemy Senator
Borah and his followers would be able
to say they had no hard feelings
against Mr.. Vandenberg. Gov. Lam
don and Col. Knox would be able to
say the same. Senator Borah would
be able to say, further, that Senator
Vandenberg is satisfactory liberal,
and that he. Mr.. Borah, would take
pleasure in supporting Senator VAN
denberg heartily in the ensuing CAM
paign against Mr.. Roosevelt. Simi-
larry. the conservatives would be able
to say that Senator Vandenberg is
conservative enough and that they
would support him heartily.
Merely Speculation.
What is said here must not be
taken for more than it is. 1t is merely
not very serious speculation based
on the pattern that seems just now
emerging. No one Is ADVISED to bet
on 1t. The pattern may change COM
pletely. 1t is nearly four months un-
til the convention. The early pri-
MARES may bring developments which
would make this speculation WORTH
less. What am saying here is little
more than rumlnatlon on the cards
as they seem to lie at time four
months In advance of the convention,
1t is subject to much change. For
one thing, not all the cards are dealt
yet, not all the factors are in sight.
For large part of lifetime I have
watched presidential situations devel-
op in both parties. I have observed
the part played by psychology, mass
and individual. It is fascinating to
watch. But it is a field in which
mistakes are frequently made, both
by observers and candidates. In the
present situation score of new fac
tors may enter. Senator Borah NAV
make little impression in the early
primaries, in which case he would
cease to be material factor. Some
thing like that happened to Senator
Hiram johnson in 1924. In that year
Senator johnson started out for the
presidential nomination as
formidably as Senator Boral1 is now
starting. But in the first three pri-
maries he failed rather dlsastrously
and ceased to be factor. Concelv-
ably that might happen to Senator
Borah this year. On the other hand,
Senator Borah might turn out to be
very strong in the early primaries. :,
Even If the pattern here suggested,
the tug-of-war pattern, should work
out to. the end the convention might
not turn to Senator Vandenberg as
the solution. It might turn to some
one not now much to the front. Or
1t might decide to nominate Gov.
Landon or Col. Knox regardless.
copyright. 1880