The Waterbury Democrat., 1936-03-18

NAuCuO M0y 4VuCu VII
 European Powder Keg.
 Washington, March IS - Our diplomats and the foreign dip- lomats and the foreign correspon- dents here are still betting against a European war in the next few months. But the odds hvae short- ened.
 Factors figuring in the guess ing are relative prepardness and unpreparedness, the extent of sen- timent for preventive" war, and the chances of an incident" which might touch off the powder keg.
 It still seems impossible to dis cover any statesman or other au- thority who doesn't believe there will be a war within the next two years.
 Chief factor making for peace in the near future is the insist ence of England in maintaining her policy of postponing the con- flict as long as possible and refus- ing to join France and Russia against Germany which, 1t is commonly believed, would also mean Japan-at this time. And again it is the consensus of international opinion, based on information, that Hitler won't be ready" for another year or two.
 What shortens the odds is rather convincing evidence that the French have come to believe that 1t would be safer to fight Germany now than later, when she completes her rearmament. Reports that the French general staff has reached this conclusion are commonly credited here.
 And there is strong suspicion that Soviet Russia has also be- come sold on the preventive war" theory.
 Britain Prefers to Wait
 The British still seem to hold the key. They want to carry out their big program of rearma- ment before letting themselves in for any hostilities and they are still further unprepared from the important standpoint of the psy- chology of the British people.
 They are definitely afraid of g German air attack on London, which might be launched and achieved before a defending air force could warm up and leave the ground.
 For a time, at least, British foreign policy seems likely to aim at keeping France from getting too close to Russia.
 It appears that Hitler, when he sent his troops into the Rhine- land and denounced the Locarno treaty, was certain he could get away with 1t and avoid war. He has friends in England who re. sumably were able to give him an accurate sizeup of what Brit ish reaction would be.
 That explains why some inter- national doesters are willing to believe that Hitler's bold move was chiefly 8 gesture timed for its effect on the annual vote of confidence which he receives in the So-called German elections. View Hitler as Smart
 Another theory is that the Nazis hoped to frighten France, feeling that she needed a good scare following ratification of the Franco-Russian defense act. But that theory assumes that Hitler isn't very bright, and there's an increasing tendency in Washington to regard him as very smart man.
 The Rhineland-Loca gesture was staged one week ahead of Hitler's original schedule. The reason, as seen in Washington, was the fact that France secretly had asked England for a very definite statement as to just what she would do in case Germany in- vaded the demilitarized Rhine land. Hitler acted before Eng land answered.
 Most experts are inclined to be- lieve Hitlers assurances that he has no immediate designs on France and that his first military movements will be aimed, if he has his choice, at Austria and Russia.
 Now Is Time, France Thinks
 France, nevertheless, believes she will have to fight Germany sooner or later. And her military leaders feel that now-when Hit Ter isn't ready" when France has the assured support of Russia and the Little Entente and the probable support of Italy-is the most advantageous time.
 Perhaps more than ever before in history, statesmen of the world feel they need strong endorse