Evening star., 1936-10-04
FASCIST VICTORY In SPAIN
ANTICIPATED BY FRANCE
Military Superiority of Rebels Assures
Franco Forces Will Win-Paris to
Increase Border Guard.

unruly Communist-anarchiSt govern.
ment will be overthrown and the |
government organized in Madrid will
have tc be friendly to the British
Tories.
Blum and the French general
staff believe that the British are
hopelessly blind to actual facts. The
Spanish revolution was organised in
Berlin and in Rome last Spring. The
French government has in its files
photostat copies Of the agreement
reached between the leaders of the
Spanish junta and Mussolini and
Hitler. This agreement provides that
in the event that the revolution Is
successful the Balearic Islands will
be made into a naval and air base
for the use of the Italian forces and
the Spanish Morocco. with its two
important ports, Ceuta and Melilla,
will also be transformed into sub
marine and air bases for the benefit
of the Central Powers.
Furthermore, the French maintain,
while there apparently Is no agree
ment regarding Gibraltar, it stands
to reason that the Nationalist gov
eminent will want to make some
sort Of a gesture to assert to the Span.
ish people its independence of the
mighty British Empire. The French
expect, therefore. that the Spanish
generals might demand the evacuation
of Gibraltar, which they consider
Spanish territory. AS far as this
writer has been able to ascertain.
there Is no concrete basis for the
theory except that the French some
times are accurately intuitive
Dictators' Proclamation.
Blum admits that the financial aid
which London could place at the dis
posal of the Madrid government might
be tempting for the generals who are
concerned, primarily, with their own
establishment in power. But, the
French say. Mussolini and Hitler.
foreseeing such a possibility, have
taken the necessary precautions to
thwart the unreliability of their tools
in Spain. The military junta is di-
vided into four groups: The Carlists,
the AlfonSoniteS, the Leroux repub-
licans and the out-and-out dictators,
who want to establish totalitarian
state independent of the other fac
tions. If all the efforts have hereto
fore been centered around Franco, it
is because he is the best soldier of
them all. But should he attempt to
betray his benefactors. the Germans
and the Italians can produce a num-
ber Of rivals who would be only too
glad to replace the present leader. The
Foreign Legion and the Moors are
mercenaries who will follow and fight
for those who pay best. The aviation
the Germans and the Italians have
taken good care-is not Spanish. The
planes and the pilots are either Italian
or German, naturally obeying orders
from Rome and Berlin. Thus, the
French think, the London government
is living in fools paradise If it i'm
stroy the carefully planned work of
Hitler and Mussolini.
OF course, the establishment of the
junta as permanent government in
Spain is more dangerous to France
than to any other country. Since it is
now believed that submarines and air.
planes will play an important role in
another war, Gibraltar has lost much
of its old importance. Eut it is still a
symbol Of Britain's might. The loss
of the Rock" would be blow to the
prestige Of the British, but not much
more than that.
The French situation, however, is
much more dangerous. The general
staff has informed Blum that as soon
as the junta takes over the govern
ment in Madrid eight divisions will
have to be placed in the Pyrenees.
This will seriously tax Frances mill
tary strength. For the time being
the French defense system calls for
something like Is divisions in the
Alps, on the Italian border, and about
an equal number on the Maginot line
of Notifications.
Nothing has been provided for the
defense of the Pyrenees, since Spain,
under Alfonso and under the repub-
lican regime, always maintained
friendly attitude toward France. But,
what is more important than the mill
tary effort, is the fact that for the
first time in century the commune
cations between France and North
Africa might be imperiled. As long
as Spain was a weak military state
the Balearic Islands and the Spanish
Morocco constituted no danger to
France. But If these two important
territories are placed at the disposal
of Germany and Italy-directly or in
directly-the French Navy considers
that 1t Is not equal to the task of
protecting its vital communications.
France will be checkmated In the
western Mediterranean even more
than Britain has been checked in the
eastern Mediterranean.
1t Is for this reason that Paris is
alarmed over the consequences of the
establishment of a Fascist state In
Spain. i
(Copyrisht. Mcclure Newspaper syndicate)