Evening star., 1936-11-01

oates are putting money on the line.
Furthermore, the best informed po-
litical writer's in this city, many of
whom have been with major candi-
dates throughout the campaign, are
virtually unanimous in predicting the
Democrats will win this State. Most
OF them believe the Democrats will
take New York City by a plurality of
from 100000 to 100000 and that
Gov. Alfred M. Landon and the Re-
publican State ticket will win upstate
by from SOC, 1000 to $50. 900 votes. Even
William F. Bleakley, Republican can
didate for Governor, has not estimated
that he would take upstate my more
than 100000 votes.
Polls Indicate Landslide.
On the basis of the Statewide poll
taken by canvassers for the Daily
News, the election in New York would
be landslide for the entire Demo-
cratic ticket. This poll gives the
President S2.5 per cent of the vote in
the city, which would mean a plurality
here of more than 100000 Polls
taken by political leaders show this
trend Is correct, but most of them in
dicate that the Democratic vote in the
city will not be more than 10 per cent
Of the total
The Daily News gives President
Roosevelt SO per cent of the total
vote in the State. 1t indicates that
in the rural sections the vote favors
Gov. Landon decidedly, but that the
President will run strong in upstate
industrial centers. The Daily News
itself predicts that the President and
Gov. Lehman will win this State
by more than $4,000 votes.
On the other hand, The Literary
Digest's poll indicates that Gov. Lam
don will win this State. The final
figures in the Digest straw vote for
New York are Landon, 162,260:
Roosevelt, 1927, and Lemke, 1855.
In the city, the Digest poll shows
Roosevelt approximately two to one
in the lead with 89,253 to 45,559 bal
lots for Landon. On the basis of
these figures the upstate vote for
Gov. Landon would be unprecedented.
The Digest poll also indicates a
larger Lemke vote than had been
anticipated Since the Union party
has been barred from the ballot in
New York, 1t is believed most of the
Lemke followers will vote for Gov
Landon.
Registration Cheers G. o. P.
The Republicans are placing their
hope of victory on the Independents
and new voters in New York City.
Without question Gov. Landon and
Bleakley will receive a tremendous
plurality among the rural sections up
state. This probably will not be
enough to win for them, however,
unless the Independents vote Re-
publican in the city and sharply
reduce the expected Democratic plu-
rality there.
The Republican leaders contend
the % per cent increase in registra-
ton in the city this year indicated
that the new voters and Independents
were aroused in their opposition to
President Roosevelt and Gov. Lehman.
Every authentic poll in the city has
indicated majority of the first voters
Roosevelt.
The President won the city by
plurality of 871, ,120 in 1882, and the
registration is approximately 100000
greater this year. Also, he has made
positive gains in certain classes of the
electorate. There are approximately
100000 Negro voters in this city. In
1882 they gave a fractional majority
to President Roosevelt. This year
they apparently will vote 4 or to
one Democratic, insuring a plurality
of approximately 100000 among the
Negroes alone. Previous to 1882 the
Negro vote here had been pro-Re-
publican.
Democrats Gain from Left.
The Democrats also have made
sharp gains from the left wing par
ties. The Socialist vote, because of
the highly organized activities of the
new American Labor party, will be
reduced more than so per cent this
year. The defections from the So
cialist vote will go almost 100 per cent
to the Democrats. Also, there have
been indications that many previously
Communist voters would cast their
ballots this year for the Democrats.
The Labor party, which is affiliated
with Labor's Non-Partisan League,
has been the major surprise of the
campaign here this year. 1t was
treated lightly by most observers and
political leaders at the outset of the
campaign. That this was an unsound
attitude was made very clear last
Tuesday afternoon, when one of the
largest demonstrations in the history
Of the city was put on by members
Of the Labor party. Workers in many
Of the city's major industries quit
work at 3 o'clock and converged on
Madison Square Garden. Many thou
sands of them took part in the march
and outdoor demonstration, although
only approximately $4,000 got into the
Garden and heard Mayor F. H. La
Guardia, Gov. Lehman, Senator Rob-
ert F. Wagner and numerous labor
leaders delivered addresses urging the
reelection of President Roosevelt.
Unable to Chart Switch
The Republicans hope the defec-
tions of conservative Democrats and
liberal independents will offset the
obvious gains made by the Democrats
among the laboring classes and the
Negro voters. There is no way what
ever to chart the extent of the switch
among the conservative Democrats,
but most observers here do not think
1t will be large enough to make much
difference.
The Republicans and Democrats
made this city the political battle
ground of the Nation this week. with
major candidates on the national and
State tickets bringing their campaigns
to q close in meetings that attracted
record crowds.
Gov. Lehman and Mr.. Bleakley have
concentrated their campaigns in the