Evening star., 1935-02-24
TROUBLED TRUCE HEADS
TOWARD EUROPEAN WAR
Germany Not Appeased by Arms Equal
ity Offer at Price of Resignation
of Her Desire for Unity.

purpose Tie Is Wiling 10 MAKE any ISd.
sonable concession to satisfy the Brit
ish and French in the West and he
has made his non-aggression pact
with Poland in the East.
For a considerable time to come,
for five years at least, Germany will
not be prepared to make war with
any flrst-class power on the Conti-
nent. She is arming and she will con-
tinue to arm until she has reached
the point where she has equality with
France. The idea that Hitler plans
eventual war against France Is hardly
to be sustained by Hitler's own course
since he came to power, although the
French are not likely to forget what
he said on this subject in his book.
In any event he is sure in the next
few years, as he has in the past two,
to propose Franco-German peace.
Real Price of Peace.
But the real price of peace between
France and Germany is the with
drawal of French opposition to Aus.
tro-German union and to the reali-
Zation Of German purpose in the
whole Danubian region. II France
continues to stand with Italy in
guaranteeing Austrian independence
and with the little entente in assuring
Czechoslovakia' existence, then, in
the end, a new Franco-German war
seems inevitable when Germany feels
herself strong enough to strike. Mean
time Hitler will endeavor to accom-
plish by other means than war this
task of creating a greater Germany.
To propose. as Berlin does, at least
semi officially, that the Austrian at
fair be settled by the direct vote OF
the Austrian people presents pro-
gram which it is very hard for either
the British or the French to reject in
principle. For it would be manifestly
an act of signal injustice to deny to
the Austrian people the exercise of
that right of elf-determination which
both allied nations recognized as the
basis of the Paris peace settlement of
1919 For the Italians, on the other
hand, the proposal of plebiscite con-
stitutes a direct threat and they are
bound to oppose it bitterly and un-
compromisingly
At the moment France, Italy. the
Soviet Union and the nations of the
little -Czechoslovakia, Ru-
mania and Yugoslavia-seem likely
to reject the proposal Of an Austrian
plebiscite, and in the face of this op-
position the British are unlikely to
lend it any official support. But pro-
vided the Germans show themselves
reasonable in the matter Of the air
Locarno as well as the return to the
League and the Disarmament Con-
ference British resentment Of German
demands in the matter of Austria is
not likely to be very acute.
The truth is. as most European
statesmen confess secretly, Austro-
German union may be postponed. but
cannot be prevented. Nor do many
European statesmen believe that
Czechoslovakia can permanently
maintain itself outside the German
orientation. What British and
French statesmen do recognize is that
any attempt to bring about Austro-
German union now must precipitate
a general war. As consequence
British policy supports the main
tenance of the status quo now. al
though recognizing that eventually
there must be revision.
No nation wants war this year or
next. The hour of war of preven-
tion has passed. Henceforth neither
France nor Italy will move except In
the face of German aggression. Con-
troll Of the military forces Of the Reich
has passed to the professional soldiers
in Germany and they are certainly
unlikely to invite the hazards of very
doubtful battle for several years to
come, that is. until they feel them
selves prepared. What we are in for,
then, is a period Of troubled truce.
Crises are likely to arise and war
scares are far from impossible.
Struggle for Unity.
The thing the American audience
has to perceive, however, is that what
is preparing in Europe is another
struggle Of another great people for
unity. The French, Italian, Russian
and British people among the great
powers, like almost all Of the smaller
races, have by war achieved unity
and attained frontiers which they
accept as right and satisfactory. Out
side Of Europe, too, all four peoples
have empires which, save in the case
of Italy, also fulfill national needs and
aspirations. Only the German people
lack unity in Europe and possessions
abroad.
This German people numbers nearly
eighty millions, dwells in a compact
block in the heart of Europe and with
the collapse of the Hapsburg mon
archy has instinctively sought unity
both for ethnic and economic reasons.
That unity was forbidden by the
treaty of Versailles and rendered un-
attainable by the unilateral disarma-
ment of the Reich. In Offering Ger
many equality in armaments at the
price of the resignation Of her desire
for unity, the British, French and
Italians are striving to postpone if
not prevent the collision that they see
must come If German purpose hold.
Union Would Be Threat.
If the Germans were able to at
tain unity, however, a new German
Mtteleuropa would emerge capable of
dominating all Of the heart of Europe
from the Baltic to the Black Sea and
thus becoming a potential threat to
the security Of all the other great
powers. That is why they stand to.
gether automatically and militarily-
militarily so far as the continental
states are concerned, and diplo-
matically in the case of all. Here is
combination Of force too great for
the Germans to challenge today. On
the other hand, German purpose is
equally compelling.
So Europe is entering new period.
period in which Hitler is manifestly
seeking to follow the example of Bis
marck and to establish a new and
wider union of the German tribes
than that the iron chancellor brought
about at the price Of three wars be-
tween 1864 and 1871. But, as have
tried to make clear, while the road the
great powers are following leads
eventually to conflict, the need and
desire Of all the prospective antag-
onists at the present moment Is for
truce. Only Americans, however,