Evening star., 1935-12-07
OUTLOOK BRIGHT
/ FOR COMING YEAR
Higher Stocks, Retail Gains,
More Jobs and Profits
Are Predicted.
BY EDWARD C. STONE.

profits are among the optimistic pre-
dictions for 1896 contained in a fore
cast prepared by the United Business
Service, Boston, just received here.
The forecast says:
Business Volume trade
Is expected to exceed 1885 by at least
10 per cent. Many lines viii show
much greater gains.
Commodity Prices.-A fairly stable
level is indicated. No sharp advances
or declines are likely. Higher pur-
chasing power in the second half of
the year will make for a stronger
price structure.
Capital Goods-Generally improved
confidence, ample available capital,
better profit opportunities and large
replacement needs will bring about
heavier buying of buildings, machin-
cry and equipment.
Retail Trade.-The dollar volume OF
roods sold at retail will probably be
8 to 10 per cent larger than in 1885,
owing to higher farm and urban pur-
chasing power. Retail prices are not
likely to vary materially from pres
ent levels. Installment purchasing will
increase, with lower carrying charges
being stimulating factor.
Agriculture-Larger crops are ex-
pected in 1886. Benefit payments are
likely to continue, no matter what
the Supreme Court decides about the
A. A. A. A more even distribution
of agricultural purchasing power is
anticipated next year.
Larger Pay Rolls Forecast.
Industrial Employment-Tot fac
tory employment will be higher next
year, because of the gains which will
take place in the heavy industries,
but a huge army of unemployed"
will continue to be burden upon
public and private charity. Pay rolls
In manufacturing establishments are
expected to average Is per cent higher
than in 1885.
Foreign Trade-The total volume
of United States foreign trade in
1886 will probably be moderately
larger than in 1885, despite the cha
otic conditions in Europe and Asia.
Recovery will continue in other parts
of the world. Imports into this coun-
try are expected to increase consider
ably. More reciprocal trade pacts will
be effected.
Earnings.-Corporate profits in 1886
are forecast Is to 20 per cent above
1885. with the largest gains occurring
in the capital goods industries. D1vi-
dend increases and assumptions will be
on larger scale. Total dividends for
the year should be Is to 80 per cent
higher than this year.
Bond Market.-During 1885 some
recession in Government and other
high-grade bonds will take place. Sec
ond-grade obligations, however, are
expected to rise further, because OF
larger earnings. Money rates will ad-
vance only slightly. A larger amount
Of refunding is expected and mod
crate increase in new financing.
Stock Market.-Following an inter-
mediate decline from present levels,
the upward trend of stock prices is
expected to be resumed in 1886. Stocks
representing the heavy industries are
likely to make the most satisfactory
showing.
Transit Dividends Uncertain.
One of the most talked of subjects
in the financial district is the Capital
Transit situation, if it may be called
q situation. A year ago in November,
transit directors declared dividend
OF 81 per share which was paid in the
middle of December. No dividend ac-
ton was taken at the November meet
ing this year so none will be paid
December Is. Should one be voted at
the December board meeting, it would
not now be paid until after the turn
of the year.
So far this year the transit company
has earned about So share. But
expenses have mounted so rapidly that
there is serious question whether the
board will be willing to make any
dividend disbursement in the near
future. A payment of 81 a share takes
$4,000, of which the North Amer
acan Co. would get $4,000.
Net earnings of only $4,000 in
October against $4,000 year ago
caused great surprise among many
stockholders. Two very important
factors in this drop were the advance
in wages granted several months ago
and the material increase in the num-
ber of employees AS the public has
demanded added street car and bus
service, the pay roll has been steadily
enlarged, all the new men getting the
benefit Of the increased wage scales.
Passengers also had increased sub
stantiaIly every month this year, but
revenues have not gone up as fast as
expenses.
To the stockholders it seems very
long time between dividends Some
of the shareholders now fear they will
never get steady dividends until or
unless the company raises fares, or in
some way brings about a sharp de-
crease in expenses.
Munsey Declares Dividend.
Directors of the Munsey Trust Co.
have declared the regular quarterly
dividend Of 81 per share, payable jan
uary to shareholders of record De-
cember %, Vice President c. H. Pope
announced today, also a 25-cent extra,
payable on the same date.
VI INdI4Oll .
Business, is the author of an intimate
sketch Of Robert v. Fleming in the
December issue of the Burroughs
Clearing House Magazine, in connec-
ton with the bankers election as head
of the A B. A.
Brokers in this city are cheerful on
the New York Stock Exchange OUT
look for 1895. Regardless of price
movements, they believe the increased
trading volume is here to stay.
Financial District Gossip.
The Bureau of Internal Revenue
has ruled that assessments paid by
banks under the Federal Deposit In
surance Corp. law in accordance with
the provisions Of the banking act Of
1885 are an allowable deduction as an
ordinary and necessary business eX-