Evening star., 1935-10-20
LEAGUE MOVING TOWARD
MAJORBATTLEIN EUROPE
Observer Sees War Under Britain s
Leadership in Sanctions
Against Italy.
BY FRANK Fl. SIMONDS.


on to purely punitive activities it must
be clear to all who look beneath the
surface Of current events that Europe
is moving steadily toward another
general war. The reason is simple.
In his African adventure MuSSolini
has embarked not alone his own per-
sonal fortunes, not merely the future
Of the Fascist regime, but the fate of
his country as we'll He cannot go
back without insuring his own fall,
the collapse of his party and revolu-
ton in the peninsula.
Under such circumstances any at
tempt by the League Of Nations to
prevent II Duce from bringing his
Ethiopian war to victory must end
in fight or a fiasco-a fight if the
enterprise proves effective, q flaSco
If it does not. But if it should prove
a fiasco, then the blow to British
prestige generally and the diaster to
the Baldwin government which has
dictated English policy must be heavy.
In one word, if Italy, despite the un-
precedented energy of the British
government in trying to stop her.
should be able to triumph and to
establish herself In Ethiopia, British
prestige must suffer to the point
where British security may be COM
promised.
Italy Will Not Retreat.
Behind the facade of the League
OF Nations what is developing is the
shock between two purposes which
are irreconcilable and are becoming
inmutable, Italy cannot and will not
retreat now. It is sheerest moon
shine to imagine that a man of Mus
solini's temper and nature will calmly
accept political extinction rather
than face the risks of ultimate de-
feat by inviting British attack. All
calculations based upon the assump-
ton that II Duce will yield peace
fully to foreign pressure are un-
founded. They ignore the implica-
tions of the Fascist religion of ma
tionalism which Mussolini has been
preaching for half generation and
they overlook the fanatical point he
has awakened.
sanctions are limited to the refusal OF
League states to trade or traffic with
Italy, she can, in Mussolinis own
words, tighten her belt and go for
ward. Such sanctions, too, can have
little practical effect because, unless it
be assumed that the United States
and Germany will associate them
selves with the League undertaking,
Italy will still be able to get as much
of what she really needs as she can
pay for. Not until an actual naval
blockade of Italian ports is under
taken can real pressure be exerted.
And at that point, MuSsolini has
warned the world, he will fight.
In the meantime, as days pass and
italian armies go forward from battle
to battle and the League sanctions are
disclosed ever more completely to be
ineffective, the pressure upon the
British government from within to re-
sort to a blockade must become more
difficult to resist. A general election
is at hand in England, a still recent
plebiscite disclosed 100000 voters
favorable to the League and 6,250,000
ready to support even military sane
tions. The British Labor party, al
though its leadership is divided, has
by an overwhelming majority signi-
fed its approval of forcible coercion.
Baldwin Dares Not Falter.
II the Baldwin government falters
now it will be exposed to deadly at
tack in the forthcoming election. If
it goes forward, even though the con-
sequence be war with Italy, it will be
secure against any criticism by an
opposition which has already COM
mitted itself to force. And the truth
is that British labor is today even
more ready than the Tories to go to
war with Italy because of its hatred
of Fascism. In one word, it has be-
come for reasons of domestic politics
almost impossible for Baldwin to stop
even If to continue leads eventually
to war.
On this side Of the Atlantic no
small part Of the public is still con-
fused by the events at Geneva. And
they are further handicapped because
of the very general belief that Musso-
lini can be frightened into abandon
ing his imperialistic program. In the
back Of their minds fingers the mis-
taken conviction that there is a peace
full means Of preventing war like
that in Ethiopia, and on that assump-
ton they are aiding to promote a
European war.
The American people should, how
ever, ask themselves what would have
been the reaction on this side of the
Atlantic when we embarked upon our
war with Spain, If the rest of the
world had attempted to restrain us.
In point Of fact the majority of the
nations held us the aggreSsor. But if,
for example, the British, acting with
the support Of France, Germany, Italy
and Russia, had concentrated its fleet
in the Caribbean in a fashion which
constituted a direct threat to Amer
ican ships and armies acting against
Cuba and Puerto Rico, what would
the United States have thought and
done?
a Reaction Is Obvious.
Again, suppose America had taken
the lead in mobilizing the opinion Of
the world against the British war in
South Africa. And suppose, also, we
had sent all our ships to some African
port with the direct purpose to hold
over England the threat OF our
forcible Intervention. What would
British reaction have been? Is there
any reason to suppose that Italy would
resent coercion less bitterly or resist it
less uncompromisingly? Think of the
feeling in the North during the War
Between the States when there was q
prospect Of glo-French Intervention |
to end the strife by assuring the in |
dependence of the Confederacy.
Stanley Baldwin has endeavored In |
public speeches to give the impression |
that the present Anglo-Italian dispute