Evening star., 1935-01-01
BUSINESS Warned
OF 1885 POLITICS
New Year Declared a Test
for New Deal, Facing
JobIess Millions.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

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q worse year for others.
Any attempt to generalize In fore
cast fails to take into account that
recovery from a depression is never
uniform in all lines because economic
death and destruction don't strike
everything at the same time.
Many corporations have debated,
reduced their capital structures, re-
arranged their operations and started
forward into an era Of profit with
large volume at low prices as their
main idea.
But many other unstable corpora
tions have not yet debated or reor-
ganized and for them the future holds
many anxious moments.
Government Called Ruthless.
Also, the Government itself has
adopted a ruthless attitude toward
some industries and demands their re-
organization, even though 1t means an
increase In unemployment and more
suffering and misery for those af-
fected. The reformers who believe
that all this is necessary in order to
bring a more abundant life" have
popular feeling with them at the mo-
ment because of a mass belief that
everything will work out all right in
the end.
But public opinion is tickle. 1t can
turn angrily on experimenters and
blunderers as quickly as 1t can ap-
plaud them for what seems at the
outset vigor and aggressiveness.
The year 1885 will furnish a test for
the New Deal. The measuring stick
is the fate of the 100000 unem-
ployed. The latest figures show that
Notwithstanding all the billions spent
on work relief and everything else,
the total number Of unemployed is
about what it was year ago, and
that Notwithstanding all the ballyhoo
and the billions spent and the deficits
incurred, the people in the breadlines
are just as numerous as they were.
Two Forces May Aid.
Two conflicting forces that ought
really to blend instead of oppose each
other will determine the outcome of
the battle against depression.
One Of these forces IS the natural
law of man, the recuperative processes
which come out of undiminished
courage to rebuild on the ruins of
financial or economic disorganization.
The other force is the artificial law
Of Government which seeks to guide
or control human nature. Sometimes
this is called "priming the pump"
Other times 1t is called removing
abuses"
The enthusiasm Of the champions
Of artificial control often runs away
with them to such an extent that they
believe the whole economic system can
be managed from Washington. They
forget that bureaucrats are just as
falible human beings as the persons
they try to control. They also forget
that depressions are infrequent in the
sense that they occur about once in
every generation and that lessons Of
the past are forgotten by the new
generations as they plunge into new
adventures in speculation and un-
sound expansion.
Political Passion Is Factor.
On top of the reform spirit is po-
litical passion, the desire of members
Of Congress in both Houses to seek
fame by notoriety in the fields Of in
vestigation and restrictive legislation.
This form of exploitation, which often
results in retarding business advance
ment, is approved nowadays as part
Of the punitive spirit, the effort to take
revenge on all managers of business
because a few were dishonest or un-
scrupulous.
The Roosevelt administration has
encouraged this attitude, believing
that this was one way to get popular
approval for restrictive legislation,
but now there has arisen in Congress
a group who want to out-New Deal
the New Dealers, who want to out
radical the radicals. The forces let
loose under the New Deal are get
ting somewhat beyond the control Of
the President himself, who will find
himself applying the brakes more and
more in an effort to harness that
which he himself has set in motion.
Because of these governmental fac
tors and the twist of the calendar
which brings presidential and con-
greSsional election just Is months
from now, it Is not possible to foresee
year Of quiet or peacefulneSs IN
industry. More labor legislation is COM
ing, or at least, efforts to strengthen
unionism, all of which may or may
not be socially desirable, depending
upon the individual viewpoint; but
certainly nobody will deny that it
means friction, dissenSion and con-
siderable uncertainty on the ques-
ton of prices. For if the labor cost
is indefinite the sales price cannot
be determined in advance for any
considerable length of time, and hence
commitments are not made except
from hand to mouth.
Heavy Goods In Slump.
The most appalling figures In un-
employment are shown in the heavier
goods industries, where about 100000
persons out of the 100000 are idle.
And If this group Of 100000 were
employed there's another 100000
engaged in service industries and pro-
pessions and businesses which would
ommediately find work.
The sad part of it all is that the
national administration has no pro-
gram that it can offer as certain
means of solving this problem. 1t
has some more ideas and experiments
coming, but all of them are tempo
rary expedients. Like the public works
and made work of the last year and
half, there is nothing to take its place
when. the work runs its course. There
has been no sound foundation laid
for private spending.
One of the industries due for def1a-
tion which will add to the chaos in
1885 is the electric light and power
industry. Here, in order to cut few
dollars a year off the electric light
bill, the administration has been bent
on breaking down an industry IN
which the actual cash investment
not water-runs into several billions
of dollars. The industry spent as late
as 1880 about a billion dollars year
in construction, and in some Localities
it could resume spending in order to
bring down the price Of electricity
through increased use.