Evening star., 1935-09-24
MAX MUST SHOOT
IN EARLY ROUNDS
Negro to Stop Him Anytime
After Ninth Is Seen as
Great Probability.

Editors note: The probable min.
ner OF tonights heduy1petoht fight
is picked By method OF scientific
analysis net0 to pu1tlism by J. L.
Moreno, M. D., psychidtrtst, rho
studied both fighters in their train
ing camps. His reasons tollotD.)
BY J. L. MORENO, NJ d.
tcopyright. 1885. by the Associated Press)
HOMPTON LAKES, N. J., Sep
- tember 24-Joe Louis should
win tonight's fight with Ma;
Baer by psychological probabi'-
iries that score more than to In
the Negro's favor.
/. The greatest probability Is Louis
to win by technical knockout any
time after the ninth round or take
the decision.
2. The second probability Is Louis
to knock Baer out in a middle round
3. There is an outside chance for
Baer to knock out Louis within three
rounds.
These conclusions are based on some
psychological forces and personality
traits directly affecting the fighters
as have seen them In the training
camps.
In punching ability Louis on the
average hits harder. But in his
flashes of attack, when in his full
strength. Baer may hit the harder.
Max Baer Is Spontaneous per-
sonality; that is, one who does his
best when meeting the unexpected and
the emergency.
Baer Should Be Tense.
lie MAY be expected to enter the
ring overexcited and tense. The
excitement will be the affect of his
well wishers and will be worse II his
trainer permits any one except him
self to be with Baer in the dressing
room Just before the fight.
If Baer takes the plan Of battle
most natural to him, he will work
himself up to quick flashes Of attack.
These are estimated, from watching
him in training, as lasting nearly a
minute.
He may stretch them at best to
2 minutes, but the more he extends
his spurts. the more he is paralyzed
in his efforts Immediately afterward,
and the greater risk he takes.
A clever opponent, well directed,
may wait for these moments and con-
centrate his attack during them.
Raer likely Is to open the fight
with a wild attack. Louis, coming
out silent, with an Indian" mask,
Is apt to measure Baer carefully. !.
After about 2 minutes you will ind
Baer breathing heavily, relaxing to
refresh himself. In the second and
third rounds Baer's furious spurts
likely are to be shorter and weaker.
Louis meanwhile should gain mo-
mentum gradually. Baer's emotional
makeup, which causes him to ex-
pend vast energy in his flashes Of
attack, would be better suited to
rounds of less than 8 minutes.
Just Right for Louis.
RUT for Louis, who takes his rest be-
tween punches, the standardized
layout Of rounds is Just right.
Baer's flashes can be most efficient
during the first two rounds. He has
then the best chance to knock Louis,
| out.
But as he repeats his spurts. the
poorer likely is to become his ability,
to put up q proper defense. Baer
even may exhause his emotional en-
ergy to the disintegration point in
the early rounds. :
The damage done by Louis in the
middle rounds may be so great that
Baer, trying in the second half Of
the fight to begin a new series Of
spurts. Is too far gone to do anything
but weaken himself more.
In effect he then would be defeat.
ing himself, sort of psychological
pugilistic suicide. Yet that seems to
be the risk Baer must take, for his
trainers know he must win by a
knockout. A knockout plan Of bat
tie. If it fails, cannot but produce the
situation I describe.
According to this Louis would seem
q sure winner. But q psychological
factor may enter the picture and
change the whole show.
Blackburn Is Big Factor.
THE strength Of Louis battle plan
lies in the exquisite relationship
between him and the cunning Black
burn in his corner. Blackburn thinks
and plans, Louis fights accordingly.
The relationship makes Louis
stronger, but in a certain way also
unfree. Louis is dependent on Black
burn to q large degree.
Blackburn rarely has failed to be
right. But tonight the analysis of
such difficult species Of fighter as,
Baer keyed to supreme effort may be
beyond Blackburn's Imagination and
experience.
Baer is unique personality. There
(See MAX, Page l6.)