Evening star., 1935-10-16
N0RMALCY BY END
OF 1885 FORECAST
Babson Expert Cites Steady
Climb of Trade Out of
Depression.
BY EDWARD C. STONE.

Leonard SpanSenDeTS Oh CIle bdpooi
statistical organization. declared at
business conference at the Willard
Hotel yesterday afternoon. He also
stated that business in Washington Is
Is to 20 per cent ahead Of the like
period a year ago and predicted that
the turn of the year will see these fig
ures climb to point 25 or 80 per cent
better than at the beginning of 1885.
Washington has already climbed
over 80 per cent from the low of the
depression, he said, collections are fair
and the building industry is improv-
ing, while employment and pay rolls
are both mounting. He said statisti-
clans had found definite tendency
here to resist any real upsWing in the
cost of living at this time, which means
higher purchasing power for Capital
residents.
This in turn means better business
for retail stores, steady rents for land
lords. All down the line the situation
should be helped, he said. Looking at
the national situation he predicted
10 per cent Improvement in general
conditions in the next few months,
based on improvement in earnings. low
interest rates, refunding programs and
advance in buying power.
Higher Commodities Likely.
Further recovery in the average of
wholesale commodity prices in 1886
was forecast by E. Lafayette Quirin,
from wellesley. Powerful forces, both
political and economic, are bound
to lift leading indices of commodity
prices still higher, allowing for sea-
sonal reactions. At the same time
certain individual commodities will
move contrary to the general trend
as is always the case. The speed of
the price rise will depend on the
progress of business revival, he as
serted.
H. c. Baldwin, in charge of Bab-
sons Reports, said the most hopeful
factor in the stock market outlook
Is the fact that no major industries
have yet returned to their 1890, or
even to their 1926, earnings record
Less than 40 per cent of the ground
lost in earning power by industries
between the peak in 1929 and the low
point in 1882 has been recovered.
The industrial earnings for the first
half of 1885 surpassed the same period
in 1881 by about II per cent, but
were still AS per cent below the fig
ureS for the first half of 1880 and
SO per cent below those for the first
half of 1929.
The general volume of business, as
shown by the Babsonchart, is still
19 per cent below normal, so that
business has ahead of it within the
next year or two tremendous posi-
bilities for an increase in volume and
IN gross and net earnings.
Wherever there is good control of
operating expenses. where labor costs
are relatively small part of total
costs, and where industries are di-
rectly and favorably affected by New
Deal activities, one will find the most
attractive issues.
1t will continue to be important,
however, to watch Washington in
making market commitments and
shifting portfolios to accord with
Washington policies, he cautioned.
Public Visits New Office.
The newly equipped and beautifully
femodeled Offices of the American Fire
Insurance Co. of the District of Co.
lumbia and Northern Liberty Building
Association at 511 Seventh street
northwest, we're the scene last night
of an informal reception and buffet
supper.
Friends and guests of these two we'll
known local business institutions were
received by the officers, Messrs. Charles
Echafer, president: F. A. Blundon,
vice president; G. M. Emmerich, sec
retary; F. ]. Ehlers, assistant secre-
tary; c. j. Bergman, treasurer of the
insurance company, and F. A. Blum
don, president; A. F. Jorss, vice presi-
dent; G. M. Emmerich, treasurer, and
F. j. Ehlers, secretary of the build
Ing association. Many of these men
have served the respective organiza-
tons 40 years or more.
Compliments we're exchanged and
all agreed that the new office exempli-
fed progress that has been steady and
consistent throughout the past so
years.
Home Loans Reach New Peak.
Loans by the II regional Federal
home loan banks to their member
enhancing institutions through
out the United States had risen as of
October 5 to s91 122,064, the highest
volume reported at any time since the
establishment of the system in 1882,
the Federal Home Loan Bank Board
announced today.
Ty, he ct cix Dfcto
loans of the home loan banks to their
member savings and loan associations
have increased more than 81 per cent,
largely as a result of steady improve
ment in residential building activity,
which has created heavy borrowing
demand by home owners seeking long
term mortgage loans from members
for the purchase, construction, re-
financing or modernization of their
dwellings.
A further reason for the rapid rise
in lending activities of the home loan
banks is the recent reduction IN their
interest rates and the growing prefer
ence of the 3400 member home
financing institutions for long-term
loans available from the home loan
banks rather than short-term loans
from other sources. Loans by the
banks are made for periods up to 10
years.
Capital Transit Stock at 18.
Capital Transit stock remained at
1S. on the Washington Stock Ex-
change today. two small sales being
recorded at that figure. Real Estate
Mortgage & Guaranty preferred again
sold at on 40-share turnover.
Washington Chapter, American Saw
tngs, Building and Loan Institute,
opened its Fall session, with Julius
Maedel, president of the chapter, pre-
siding. Harry J. Kane, jr. professor
at Columbus University and assistant
secretary of the Real Estate & Co.
lunnbia Title Insurance Cos. is to
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