Evening star., 1935-12-29
BY FRANK H. SIMONDS.

IN wv IIldt Lie SIItOk6 anu QuSL VI
nj the battle waged over the
" Hoare-Laval peace proposal
a have settled, two things be-
come crystal clear. In the first place,
1t is evident that the proposal had its
origin in Sir Samuel Hoare's convic-
ton that an oil embargo would drive
italy to attack Great Britain, and
when such an attack came Britain
would stand alone. In the second
place, it is no less plain that with the
collapse Of the proposal conditions re-
vert to the stage preceding the formu-
lation Of the Hoare-Laval agreement.
In other words, the danger of gen.
eral war exists and there is nothing to
suggest that if II Duce does indulge
In his long-threatened and desperate
attack upon the British in the Medi-
terranean and in East Africa any ef-
fective aid for them will be forth
coming from the League states. Hoare
and Baldwin in the ill-starred Paris
proposals sought to get out of an i'm
possible situation at any price. They
were afraid of war, they were aware
that the whole weight Of the war
would have to be borne by England
and they realized that for England
such war must prove disaster even
II victory were assured.
Public opinion in England and
League sentiment have been re-
tponsible for the failure Of the Hoare-
Laval proposal, but it remains true
that unless Mussolini is broken and
the FasciSts regime in Italy destroyed
no peace by negotiation on terms more
favorable to Ethiopia Is conceivable.
OF course, If the Ethiopian forces tri-
umph over the italian Army, then the
whole problem will be solved on the
battlefield. But as long as it remains
diplomatic question, so long must II
Duce be rewarded for his aggression,
because he must, to save his political
life, ask and obtain. that reward.
Leagues Peace Standards.
League principles demand that there
should be no settlement which does
not include the evacuation of Ethiopian
soil by Italian armies, the recognition
Of Ethiopian independence by Italy and
the relegation to the League Of the
boundary disputes between Italy and
Ethiopia for peaceful adjustment. But
for italy the acceptance of such terms
would constitute defeat even more
htlmiliating than the first Adowa 40
years ago. Italy must, therefore, fight
on to the bitter end, which can only
be domestic revolution If Mussolini
takes sanctions lying down and war
of desperation against Great Britain
II he does not. And it is the unani-
nous opinion Of all experienced OBJ
servers that II Duce will fight. For
myself, do not believe the sanctions
ever will be imposed, because during
the next few weeks I think it is going
to become plain to the whole world
that, however clumsy and shambling
Baldwin and Hoare were in their ac-
tions, they were correct in their ap-
praisal Of the situation and that the
imposition Of an oil embargo will
mean war. Nor does anything suggest
that France would give Britain any ef-
fective assistance In such q conflict,
because to do that would be to pre-
cipitate a civil war in the republic.
Pudding to Be Tasted.
Underlying all else in the present
crisis has been the widespread public
belief that a great power can be
starved and strangled into submission
by other nations and make no violent
resistance to such a process. All the
operations at Geneva have proceeded
upon this assumption. As Hoare and
Baldwin pointed out, no preparations
were made by any country other than
Britain to meet the attack of Musso-
lini, which both foresaw as likely. But
now, If any attempt is made to 60 on
with oil embargoes, then it will become
clear once and for all whether or not
1t Is true that effective sanctions mean
war.
! have received a good deal Of in
formation Of one sort and another
from Europe since this crisis began,
and it all tends to convince me that
Mussolini means to 60 down fighting
and viii attack Great Britain rather
than let an oil embargo strangle his
military operations. The italian forces
and submarines could do good deal
Of initial harm to the British feet.
Actually, 1t is notorious that the home
fieet was sent to the Mediterranean on
short notice and without proper prepa-
ration, it has been kept there for
nearly four months and many ships |
should long ago have been recalled for |
refitting. II. moreover, the truth Of |
the Hoare-Laval episode ever comes |
put ! venture the guess win be dis
covered that the admiralty had q fin
ser In the pie.
In any event, however, Europe has
now resumed its march to war and o !
5-r+ .s.~