Evening star., 1935-08-15

changes giving their effects separately
to weather of all parts of the globe.
But, like all scientists who have tried
to trace periodicities in weather. he
ran into phase reversals. Sometimes
the weather would follow the solar
variations quite exactly. At other
times. however, it appeared to act in
ju-t the opposite manner.
Magic Number %.
The next step was the discovery
that the alterations Of the phases of
periodicities caused by the sun in the
weather take place abruptly at null
tiples of % years measured fror jan
uary, 1919. This % years was indeed
a magic number for all the IL solar
periodicities and their weather coun-
terparts are contained within it,
The net result, as announced by
DR.. Abbot before the National Acad-
envy, was that weather the world over
fluctuated-specifically for localities
because of local conditions-in a great
23-year cycle which was essentially q
double sunspot cycle. For example, If
the temperature Of the city of New
York was below normal during the
month of January, 1912. 1t could be
expected, all other things being the
same, to be below normal in January,
1885. If there was great drought in
Nebraska in the Summer of 1884
subnormal rainfall could be expected
in the Summer of 1857. In other
words, every % years the weather in
any particular part of the world tended
to repeat itself.
This did not mean, Of course, that
the repetition would be exact from
day to day or from month t. month.
1t did not mean-and this cannot be
too strongly emphasized-that II the
average temperature of New York
City in January. 1917. was 10 degrees
below normal it certainly would be 10
degrees below normal In January, 1894.
1t did mean. however, that the par
ticular locality could expect q colder
than average January. Solar varia-
ton, after all. is only one factor in
weather-howsoever dominating it
may be.
But. as an indication of the enor-
nous practical significance of the dis
covery. knowledge of the 23-year cycle
would have made possible the predic-
tion of the great Midwest drought.
Predictions Undertaken.
Following the announcement of the
discovery DR.. Abbot set to work at
once making actual temperature and
rainfall predictions for the three sue
ceeding years. Altogether he made Sc
forecasts for different parts of the
world. Once the graphs were drawn
they were locked up.
The forecasts for 1894, however,
have been checked against the actual
weather for the entire IL months.
They demonstrate in the most force
full manner the reality of the 23-year
cycle. They must speak for them
selves:
Twenty-seven per cent of them "hit
the nail on the head" They were
/ almost 100 per cent accurate from
week to week. The predicted curves,
for example, of the 1884 temperature
of Helena, Mont. and Of the 1884
rainfall of Chicago fitted the actual
curves almost exactly. The fits"
we're SO far beyond the possibilities of
pure chance that 1t would be ridicu-
Ious to attribute them to 1t.
Fo-ty-two per cent of the predic-
tions DR.. Abbot describes as good"
They predicted accurately the general
trend of the weather without achiev-
ing any day-to-day exactions of tenn
perature or rainfall. Seventeen per
cent of the forecasts showed q rough
fit with actual conditions. Seven per
cent, DR.. Abbot admits frankly, were
bad. Apparently they show no rela-
tionship at al to actual conditions.