Evening star., 1935-09-29

State would have been q good New
Deal long shot, but today 1t is turning
back to its first love, the Republican
party, with all the rapidity OF falling
meteor.
In the Midwest the Republicans are
sure Of Michigan and Illinois. Mich
igan has soured on the New Deal and
all 1t stands for. While Roosevelt has
q considerable personal following in
Illinois, he Is sure to be showed under
ct the ballot bsx on the banks Of the
Chicago River. A Midwest nominee
on the Republican ticket would GER
tSinly remove whatever doubt there
now exists about the political complex
of Illinois, In which about one-hah
of the entire State vote Is located in
and around Chicago.
From Illinois we Jump clear to the
Pacific Coast before We find q sure
Republican State. Here. Oregan will
turn her back on the President in 1886
II the Republicans offer q strong
candidate. While the lumber industry
has not yet entirely given up on the
New Deal, there Is not as much Roose-
welt sentiment in the Oregon industry
as I found in Washington. Through
the rural districts of this State there
is q strong swing away from the New
Deal.
California Republicans Stronger.
In California found a growing Re-
publican sentiment. Practically the
entire northern half of the State. in
cluding the San Joaquin Valley, is
doubtful Of future hope from the
Roosevelt program. In Los Angeles
County the sentiment is somewhat
mixed, but the powerful oil and motion
picture industries are certainly for q
change Unless the Republicans blum
der they should take California by q
fair margin.
Present New Deal dissension in Ohio
might possibly make this State red-hot
Republican by election time. Right
now, while at odds with the admin
istration. there is little desire for that
form Of Republicanism as expressed
by the Brown-Fess influence. pop
ular Midwest candidate will excite the
Imagination of the Buckeye electorate.
The voters in Iowa. Kansas and Ne
braska haven't stopped arguing long
enough to find out what they are
really thinking. These are the ripest
places in which to plant an argument.
Right now Iowa and Nebraska lean
toward the jackpot of the New Deal,
while In Kansas they want q change
and are hopeful Of seeing q Kansan
in the White House.
Upstate Against New Deal.
We never know where New York
State will land until We know what
New York City will do. and 1896 will
be no exception. Roosevelts popu-
larity in the upstate territory is un-
questionably on the wane. From
Syracuse to Buffalo and all down
through the Finger Lake district there
is decided turn against the New Deal
Frankly. New York City does not look
SO good for the New Dealers at the
present time. The La Guardia follow
ing will be split on the presidential
issue. and. even II peace is made with
Tammany. the tiger will not be able
to hand Roosevelt the solid voting
power 1t did three years ago. OF
those I interviewed in New York City
40 per cent Of those who voted for
Roosevelt in 1882 stated that they
would not vote for him in 1886. II
that percentage holds. a terrific shift
in public opinion is indicated. To
swing his native State Roosevelt will
have to have q landslide in New York
City to offset his losses upstate, and
I cannot believe that he will be blessed
with a landslide in New YORK City
in face of the present drift in senti-
ment.
Of Massachusetts,. Wisconsin, Indiana,
Maryland and Oklahoma and get
decided opinion on the division of
public sentiment. How can one ana
lyze what I found in Indiana. for in
stance: 267 we're for the New Deal,
264 were against the New Deal and
276 were undecided. but when pressed
4OA q SNAdCANy cSOOA d0Out EHudl4y
divided.
Any split in the Democratic party
will make the Republican task that
much easier if they take advantage of
their opportunities.
We must conclude at the end of this
first study that public opinion is de-
veloping along practical. semi-conser-
vative lines. and that We will prob
ably have a revision of national policy
leaning away from a central govern
ment and favoring more prudent ham
ding of the public finances. be-
lieve business should prepare to work
out its own plan of individualized and
unregulated employment absorption
Both business and Government will
have to face this question, which may
possibly become the leading issue of
the coming campaign.
One great psychological factor may
upset public sentiment and that is a
sudden favorable or unfavorable eco
nomic change. There Is no reason,
however, to expect that We will have
a great economic boom before election
time, nor are there signs that We will
have an economic collapse. Indica-
tions are for . steady but irregular
improvement.