Evening star., 1935-11-07
MIDWEST SEEN
ASBATTLEGROUND
Receding Tide of Votes Held
No indication of Roose.
veIt's Defeat.
RY DAVID LAWRENCE.

ID
While the political partisans Will
read into this weeks election returns
whatever they would wish to see
happen In 1886, dispassionate anal
ysis of the statistics would seem to
indicate the receding tide Of Demo-
cratic votes this year does not neces-
sarily mean President Roosevelt's ma
jority in the electoral college has feen
wiped out or will be next year.
That there is recession OF Demo-
cratic strength, that the Democrats
probably reached their peak in the
congressional elections of 1884 and
that there is serious detection in the
Democratic party on the Eastern sea-
board is evident from study OF the
returns. But Mr.. Roosevelt of the
pleasing radio voice was not running
on Tuesday of this week, and the
country doesn't know who his Repub-
licau opponent will be. Hence, with all
the objections that some Democrats
may have to the Presidents policies, 1t
is not to be inferred that a large
number of them will be ready to vote
for any Republican.
Stayaways Out of Proportion.
The figures Of Tuesdays elections
are well worth studying from various
angles. The Republican high COM
mand promptly construed the Repub-
lican Assembly victory in New York
State as a national triumph, and the
Democratic spokesmen as quickly in
sisted that the popular vote in New
York State this year was 100000 bet
ter for the Democrats than the Re-
publicans.
Several questions, however. presen,
themselves which neither the Repub-
lican nor Democratic chieftains have
answered. Why did 243.l09 Demo
cratic voters out of 2,l77,982 who
cast their ballot for Gov. Lehman
Democrat, in 1894, fail to come to the
polls at all this time? And why die
only 46,5o5 out Of the Republican
voters who favored Robert Moses fol
Governor in 1884 stay away this
week? Clearly the Democratic stay.
away vote is out of all proportion te
that of the Republicans.
Will Tammany Vote Right?
Another question that needs to bt
answered is whether Tammany Hall
which cast such large part of the
Democratic vote for the Assembly this
week, is ready to forget its grievances
against Mr.. Roosevelt and vote fol
him next year? In other words, can
the administration count on that
1,934,873 Democratic vote for Assem-
bly, of 1895 as likely to stay hitchec
next year?
Tammany Hall, which has beer
kicked around by the New Deal, comes
curiously back into strategic posi-
ton. 1t may hold the fate Of New
York State in its hands, for, obviously
the swing-back to Republicanism II
the upstate counties of New York Il
significant of an adverse tide for the
Democrats in the Empire State.
While Philadelphia has been known
as a Republican city. there is un'
doubtedly a recession of Democratic
strength in that city. too. For. ir
1884, Senator Reed. Republican, car.
ried the city by only about 5000 votes
and Attorney General Schnader. ths
Republican candidate for Governor
carried tt by 1900 over Gov. Earle
while this year, the Republican mayor
atty candidate has at least &c, 900 ma
jority over the Democratic nominee
The election of Republicans in
various cities like Cleveland. which
Mr.. Roosevelt carried Overwhelmingly
in 1882, only serves to emphasize the
fact that the Democratic tide has
stopped running and that adverse
currents have set in.
Forget 1916 Election.
But anybody who draws the con-
eluSion that these same currents are
instance, in the West and the South
.forgets what happened in the 1916
election, when Woodrow Wilson lost
the big Eastern States by substantial
ma jorities and yet squeezed in at the
electoral college. The West IS running
stronger for Mr.. Roosevelt than the
East because of the heavy A. A. A.
subsidies and the radical aspects OF
Mr.. Roosevelt's attack on Eastern
= GQaQclal clLaQelS.
If this correspondent were to hazard
= q prediction at this early date. with
the campaign many months of and
with a knowledge that unforeseen
events might change the whole COM
~plexion of our politics, it would be
that the adverse tide noted in this
weeks elections is not get strong
enough to prevent the election of
President Roosevelt by comfortable
majority in 1886.
- Middle West battle-ground.
But the important thing at the
moment is what the immediate effect
of this weeks elections will be on the
respective parties and their strategy
These effects might be outlined as fol-
lows:
I. The Middle West will be the bat
tleground.
2. The Republicans will look to the
Middle West for q candidate, possibly
one of these three-Gov. Landon,
Frank Knox and Senator vandenberg.
8. The Democrats may take heed
of the tide and extend their breath
ing spell'' into a longer period than
they may have contemplated before
last Tuesdays returns came in.
4. The Republicans will find their
party organizations everywhere much
stimulated by the elections. and cam
paign funds will be easier for them to
gather.
S. Talk of q fusion or coalition
movement of conservative Republican,
and Democrats will receive less atten-
ton from the regular Republican lead.
ers because they will feel the Repub.
lican party presents the only alterna.
tive to the New Deal.
6. The Roosevelt administration will
redouble its efforts through the use Of
Government facilities and funds tt
make political decisions that will help
the New Dealers to stay in power.
z. Many members Of Congress who
run as Democrats will find themselves