Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1935-09-08
The Next Budget
By Queen L. Scott.

White House down through the ranks
they sense a sharp shift in the public
attitude toward Federal spending.
Budget balancing murmurs-the first
from a cabinet member-are being emit
ted by Henry Morgenthau, jr.. Secretary
of the Treasury. Mr. Morgenthau eas
the Job of finding the billions of dollars
for his fellow officials to spend, so that
his warnings for. better balance be-
tween income and outgo are under
Standable.
He has several new billions to locate
in the months just ahead. The reason
is that heavy spending under the new
work relief plan is supposed to start
next month. This fact confronts the
Treasury Secretary just at the moment
when signs accumulate that funds may
not always be so readily obtainable as
they have been in the past.
What surprises New Dealers is that
these same yearnings for better bal
ance in the Federal budget, so strong
in Mr.. Morgenthau seem to be rising
in the breasts of farmers and workers
and of a rapidly widening group of
voters.
The President finds that the magic
has gone from spending as means of
printing business pumps Gradually the
story is getting across that a day of
reckoning approaches when the mass of
the people will have to pay up through
heavy taxes or accept reputation of
debts now being contracted.
The result is that Mr.. Roosevelt def
nitely would like to present the country
with a more conservative budget next
January.
What aye the chances?
Good, on paper, and before Congress
starts to function again.
Not so good when the actual spending
prospect of the next year is considered.
~
The President for two years, has been
careful to draw as dark budget picture
as possible. Back of this method lay a
strategy designed to discourage the even
more ambitious spenders, such as bonus
advocates, 1o-billion-d public works
advocates and advocates of printing
press farm mortgage relief.
In January, 1884, Mr.. Roosevelt esti-
mated that the Federal debt July /,
1885, would amount to $4,000 0O0, 900.
Actually it amounted to fewer than
500 900, 100000.
Then, in January of this year. the
President told the country that by
July, 1886, the Federal Government
prospect is that the debt actually will
not be above s33, O00,0 100000 next july
unless there is to be an unprecedented
burst of spending.
Experience shows that Mr. Roosevelt
hnr nefty fnI 1,fc
ity by about $4,000 100000 a year.
A twist of the financial wrist could
change that.
If he feels it wise, President Roosevelt
in January could offer what he would
consider a penny pinching budget, en-
phasizing the intention of the Federal
Government gradually to work out of
the deficit hole.
budget outlining expenditures at least
a billion dollars below the present 1886
budget. He might even cut 1t two bill
spending experience.
But can plan of that kind be made
to hold up?
Hardly, judged by the demands that
already are shaping up.
For one thing, work relief, just get
ting under way, will be costly. All of
the allotted $4,000, 100000 may not be
spent before next July l, but those in
the best position to know say that at
least three additional billions are TO be
required to carry the plan beyond next
July l.
For another thing the soldiers bonus.
held back by the President during the
last session. is next to certain TO be
voted in 1886. That will mean another
81 ,O0O, 900 900.
For a third factor, the Frazier Lemke
plan to refinance farm mortgages with
SO 900, 100000 of printing press money,
which was kept from a vote in Con-
gress by main force last session, will be
harder to hold down in the next This
means some kind of compromise involv-
ing use of the Federal credit.
Add together bonus payments and
relief needs and the result is a pros
pective $4,000, 100000 in appropriations
over and above the regular expenses of
the Government. These regular ex
penses amount to s4,000000,000. The
result is seO00,06O,00 in. prospective
appropriations even before Congress Sc
riously gets to thinking about spending
money.
The session just ended was a ten-bil-
lion-dollar affair. The next session
readily could surpass it in meeting de-
mands of special groups within the coun-
trys population.
That explains Mr.. Morgenthau's pres
ent worries. Also it explains why Mr..
Roosevelt's next budget may not tell the
whole story. The Secretary of the Treas
ury is aware that some day there may be
a limit to the number of billions OF dol
lars that he can borrow.
But what of the recent actual spend
ing record of the New Deal?
That record since July l. when the
present fiscal year started, shows that
Uncle Sam is engaged in some fancy
bookkeeping
The first thing that strikes the eye
Is the apparent sharp decline in the
amount of money being paid out for
relief and for public works. Relief out
lays are down about $70,000,000 for
two months compared with a year ago.
Public works cost about $130,000,000 less
in those two months.
But little inquiry reveals that, on
orders from above, as much money as
possible was paid out during June in
order to start the new year in better
shape.
Even with these decreased OUTLAWS for
relief and public works, the Federal
deficit for those first two months