Evening star., 1935-02-24

BY THE RIGHT HON. LORD
STRABOLGI.
THE political barometer is ''set
fair" all over the world. With
one possible exception the
l. danger of a serious breach of
world peace has receded.
During 1884 there were wars and
rumors of wars all over Europe In
every capital statesmen, journalists,
bankers and merchants were in
state of gloom. Actually, during the
whole year there was only one real
danger spot in Europe and one in Asia.
There was real peril over the Nazi
threat to Austria, the Italian reply to
this and the answering challenge from
Yugoslavia. 1 shall describe how this
peril was overcome and why it will not
recur. In Asia there was real dam
ger of war between Russia and Japan;
but that danger likewise has passed;
and is unlikely to recur. for special
reasons which I shall give.
These rumorS are certainly mis-
chievous; they are unsettling to busi-
ness and have harmful effect on the
younger generations. / recently visit
ed a great public school in England
and spoke to some of the boys about
their future careers. l was Mortified
to hear them say that while they were
keenly interested in their future pro-
fessions. they all expected to be fight
ing in a great war at the very be-
ginning of their adult careers. In
astonishment, I asked for an eXpla-
nation. We'll, what about all this
war talk" they replied. Every one
says we shall all be fighting in world
war very soon"
This is widespread feeling: yet 1t
is altogether unjustifled if the facts
are calmly examined.
RidicuIes War Scares.
The useless and vile war between
Paraguay and Bolivia may pursue its
cruel course. There may be another
outbreak of the difficulties between
Italy and Abyssinia in Africa. But
there will be no danger of world
war involving the great nations dur
ing 1885 or 1886, and probably for
some years ahead. This is a perfectly
safe prophecy.
Why, then, all these war scares?
Such talk is a crime. 1t is good
rule in seeking for criminals to ask
who benefits from the crime.
War talk" in 1885 will be humbug.
1t is useful for certain persons and
interests when rumors of war are in
the air. Thus, in France, the third
republic is passing through difficult
epoch Of political development. 1t is
helpful for the upholders of threat
ened institutions to be able to call
upon all patriots to unite in defense
of the republic That kind of war
talk is for internal consumption only.
Similarly, in Italy, the economic
situation is difficult even though the
Fascist regime is secure. 1t suits Mus
solini and the Fascist chiefs to beat
the patriotic drum and talk darkly
of war threats both on the East and
the West. And always there are
the general staffs of European coun-
tries, including Russia. and the naval
and military chiefs in Japan, who
need money, and plenty of it, for war
ships, airplanes, heavy artillery and
armaments generally. Every finance
minister is embarrassed; the taxpay-
erS in all countries are heavily bur-
dened: The only way the professional
warriors can get their money is by
alarming their respective populaces.
Munition Makers, Too.
And last. but by no means least, that
strange international brotherhood,
the manufacturers of munitions for
profit, depend in their business on
general state of fear and corre-
spending demand for weapons of de-
fense. There is no difficulty in ex-
planning the origin of the war rumors.
But all the people cannot be fright
ened all the time. There must be
basis for these rumors If they are to
last. Let us survey the actual pros
poets of war breaking out and esti-
mate the real probabilities.
One self-evident fact is frequently
overlooked in these discussions. For
new war on large scale to break
out somebody has to start fighting.
A nation or nations must take the
first overt step. In these days no gov
ernment in any country dare start
war unless it is pretty certain of
quick and successful decision.
The strongest military power in Eu-
rope Is France. French ornaments
and finances are both in state that
would allow the waging of war on the
great scale. But we can say with alb
solute certainty that France will
never begin war. She has nothing
to gain by it. The French understand
well that the so-called preventive war
against Germany would have to be
fought without allies. And the French
general staff will not permit that.
France on Defensive.
The fact is that France is on the
defensive against both Germany and
Italy. She has all the territory she
requires, including the second great
est colonial empire in the world, and
in actual fact is probably the least
warlike nation In Europe. Then,
who would attack France There has
been friction between French and
Italian governments for decade.
Fascist Italy would like larger sclice
of North Africa and portion of the
French Riviera. But neither would
be worth the risk of a war. Mussolini
knows that the Yugoslavs, with a
fine army, might attack him on the
East and that the French navy would
be able to control the Mediterranean
trade routes. Without iron, coal and
steel brought by sea italy would be
helpless.
M. Laval, foreign minister of
France, who replaced the murdered
Barthou, has had some success in
clearing up the African difficulties
with Italy; while Prince Paul, the
regent Of YugoslaYia, starting with a