Evening star., 1935-10-27
DUCE SEEN AVOIDING
EUROPE.WIDE CONFLICT
Diplomatic Lull i'm War Crisis Gives
Statesmen Chance to Realize How
Serious Conditions Have Become.
BY ALBIN E. JOHNSON.


prelude to catastrophe
storm, or it may equally well be a
providential breathing spell during
which wise statesmen may make a
superhuman effort to show that reason,
instead of force, can adjust funda-
mental international disputes.
With the League moving slowly on
sanctions against Italy, and the Brit
ish overnment-through precipitous
national election seeking mandate
from the people" to embark upon the
largest armaments program since 1914
in deadly earnest about defending
the Empires vital interests and the
covenant Of the League of Nations,
Italy, and Europe at large. are be-
ginning to realize the seriousness Of
the situation.
Behind the moves of the conservative
government in London is more than
domestic political nlaneuvering to win
an election. British statesmen are
far too cautious to capitalize upon a
potential World War to further their
party ends. They are taking advantage
of the unanimity of the nation to put
the country's armaments-naval, air
and land. in such condition that they
can single-handedly, if necessary.
maintain their vaunted supremacy of
the Seven Seas.
There is one outstanding reason why
Great Britain has not already acted
decisively in checkmating Mussolini.
That is the same as caused her to hold
her hand until the fifty-ninth minute
of the eleventh hour in 1914, when
Europe -tottered on the brink
OF war. She is not prepared to act
alone, that is, to pay the price of
such an action at this time. Later,
if necessary, yes. But to throw her
fleet into action now she would have
to have the fullest collaboration of
France. The Laval government isn't
In position to promise this. with
Germany on her back again. So Lon
don is getting all set to act, with the
League, if possible, if and when it is
ready; alone later if that becomes
imperative. The continual CONFER
ences" between French and British
military leaders is the most significant
thing that has developed the past
few weeks. And the eyes of the gen.
eral staffs are not turned exclusively
on the Mediterranean; they are fixed
on Nazi Germany as we'll.
London Builds Fences.
Since the tension in the Mediter-
ranean has eased the British foreign
Office has not been idle. Persistent
reports indicate that understanding"
(alliances are not possible under the
League covenant. but understandings,
which may automatically become al
liances if the League collapses, are)
between London and Paris, London
and Madrid, London and Athens and
London and Lisbon are being nego-
tiated. With such a backing-naval
and air bases in France, Spain, Greece
and Portugal-the royal air force and
his majesty'S navy will be favorably
situated to deal with any situation
arising in the Mediterranean when
the proper moment arrives.
All that assumes, however, that
Mussolini will try to hold out against
League sanctions and at the same
time continue his African adventure
despite Geneva, Great Britain and
Emperor Halle SelaSsie.
But can the Fascists get away with
such program?
And what is Nazi Germany up to?
There are still two important factors
to be determined. First, to what eX-
tent will Fascist Italy be able to carry
on in face of economic, financial and
military sanctions on the part Of
members of the League? Secondly, to
what dagree will these sanctions be
imopsed? How strong will be the
pressure?
Also it is not known officially,
whether Great Britain is determined
to bring about the downfall of Benito
Mussolini, i. e., the removal of what
statesmen characterize as political
madman" from the European scene
And can Europe afford to risk eco
nomic and political collapse of a ma
ton of 45,0O0,000 people, with its in
evitable chaos, which would be dam
gerous for the entire continent? 1t
might unleash forces in France, the
Balkans, Central Europe and Ger
many which would upset the delicate
international political balance so
painfully built up since 1919 That
balance is extremely unstable already.
Rome's Position Dangerous.
That the condemnation of Italy
by the League is beginning to hurt
the Fascists is obvious. Financially
Romes position is precarious. During
the past year her public debt has
mounted to 105 billions of lire-a
gain of billions in IL months. Italy's
gold reserve has dropped nearly 81
per cent in four months. 1t is now
about 1000, 10000 lire This shrink
age has made necessary the suSpen-
sion of the 40 per cent legal gold
'coverage for notes in circulation. Last
June the official "coverage" was Ais
per cent; today it is less than 81 per
cent. In June, July, August and Sep
tember the Bank of Italy lost 1857
100000 lire; during the first 10 days
of October 250,000 900 lire were spent
W pay 4OA Al4AkSOl 10. oSSA "AOAi N
refusal by foreign countries to sell
except for caSh-a policy voluntarily
entered upon by American and Brit
ish firms as far back as early August
and a choking off of credits, there
is nothing left for MusSolini but to
spend his gold reserve now before
the economic sanctions make them
valueless. Meanwhile, by controlled
imitation the Fascists can increase
their note circulation in Italy almost
unrestrictedly.
Through the National Exchange In
stitute, MuSsolini has "conf1scated"
all the foreign exchanges of Italian
citizens. According to official reports
the treasury has obtained 5000, ,O00.-
600 lire in this way; private financial
circles place the amount at slightly
more than one billion. Later, if i'm
perative, the Fascists will seek to get
hold of all wealth held abroad by
Italian subjects.
Ae n Two nny,iop mao ciira fha trnaS-