The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1935-07-20
ETHIOPIAN WAR
MAY PROVE END
FOR MUSSOLIN|
Italy Forced to Fight by
Depression; World
May Be Rocked.
BY JOHN +. FLYNN
Times Special Writer
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WASHINGTON, july 20-What-
ever may be the international re-
percussions Of the impending ad-
venture Of Mussolini in Ethiopia. the
economic consequences TO ourselves
can not be ignored.
These economic consequences to
ourselves ran not be ignored. These
economic consequences may be
many, but perh0ps the most OBJ
vious and important are those
which viii flow from the effect Of
the struggle upon the fortune Of
the dictator. and those in turn must
result from the effect Of the enter
prise upon the economic fortunes Of
Italy.
Speculation upon this point usual
" takes the course Of trying 70
determine what may happen in the
event of Italy's defeat But it is
more important TO imagine what
will be the course Of events with
AIussolini victorious, which is the
more likely event.
Heavy Borrowing Revealed
First. we must be fairly clear that
Italy is forced into this war by the
pressure Of her economic difficult
ties. The Fascist regime has seemed
a very successful adventure 20 many
American travellers. They have
been impressed by the external evil
dences Of order, cleanliness. indus
try, confidence.
What they have seen is the prod
uct Of iron discipline. But eco
nomic law has been doing its work
alongside the discipline Of the die
tator and slowly Italy mas been
moving downward
The central fact is that the Fas-
cist economist has not learned how
to balance production with purchas-
ing power. The government there
fore had had to supply the deficit
in purchasing power to keep the
nation afloat. This Italy has done
precisely as We have been doing
it these last two years, save she
has been at it much longer. Mus
solini has been spending money and
getting the money to spend by Dor
rowing.
Debt Mounting Steadily
Italy would perhaps be sWamped
utterly today we're it not for the re-
pudiation of most of her external
debt Meantime, her internal debt
has been rising. It was 91,OO0O00,000
lire IL 1881. Next year it rose to
95 900 100000. BY 1884 it had reached
101 $40, 100000 BY the end Of the
last fiscal year in June 1t was up
to los, 125 100000.
Now the finance minister says the
coming year will witness another
treasury deficit Of nearly two bill
lion. not counting the African en-
terprise.
There is not time here to ex-
anime all the trade factors But it
is sufficient to say that all show the
nation in a serious plight. War will
give the dictator a brief respite.
If he loses, he viii be overthrown.
But if he wins. what will happen?
Wars must be paid for. Mussolini
can paw for this one only by borrow
ing funds chiefly from his own peo-
pie. There is every reason to be-
lieve that this year he must, for
sheer peace time emergency pur-
poses. borrow as much as last year.
For the war he must borrow as much
more as that strange adventure VIII
cost. 1t will be billions.
Even u. S. May Suffer
The longer the war lasts, the
more he must borrow. But short or
long the war must come to an end.
The moment this occurs Mussolini
must face all the perils of his pres
ent economic position plus those
which have been created by his
victory.
It is difficult to see how the Fas-
cist regime can survive the vast load
which will be imposed on 1t by the
struggle. whatever the outcome.
If the Fascist regime collapSes Is
it not reasonable to suppose that
the whole course of the Fascist de-
velopment in Europe will be
shaken; that Europe may be
plunged In disorder and that this
failure of the Fascist technique will
exercise a profound influence upon
~.