Evening star., 1935-12-15
u. S. MAY PROVOKE WAR
BY PREACHING TO JAPAN
Observer Says Nations Resent Treaty
Piety When Existence Depends on
Bold. Unpeaceful Course.

tion between complete disinterested-
ness and unlimited involvement.
Warnings like that which Secretary
Hull issued the other day are received
in Toxic with resentment. but not with
the smallest respect. One has only
to look back to the unhappy war days
when Washington was trying by notes
to compel Germany to modify its SUBJ
marine procedure to realize how lit
tie Importance either spoken or writ
ten words have for countries and gov
ernmentS once they are convinced
their national existence or prosperity
makes it imperative for them to fol-
low the course which they have
adopted.
1t is natural enough for state de-
partment to proceed upon the as
sumption that specific treaties or gen.
eral covenants made between nations
have a permanently binding value.
All international law necessarily starts
with an acceptance of a treaty as
binding contract. But the practical
truth is that in the contemporary
world the value of a treaty depends
upon one of two things. It must either
continue to be equally profitable to
all signatories or it must be backed
by a force so great that dissatisfied
Signatory does not dare to challenge it.
Advantage Above Treaty.
For time the nine-power treaty
was equally advantageous to Japan
and to the United States, because
Japan wanted to prevent lie extern
sion of American Notifications In the
Philippines and the United States
wished to keep the open-door policy
alive in China. When, however, Japan
found the open-door policy no longer
to her advantage she repudiated the
treaty and went ahead in Manchuria.
Italy signed the covenant of the
League and the Kellogg pact, but re-
pudlated both when her concern be-
came not to guard her own frontiers,
but to cross those of another country.
Germany, in her turn, submitted to
the disarmament provisions of the
treaty of Versailles until she felt
strong enough to violate them-and
then did.
All that Secretary Hull actually
meant TO do the other day was to
recall the fact that treaties existed,
that nations which signed them ought
to observe them and that finally the
United States hoped Japan would de-
sist from a course inconsistent with
these treaties. Secretary Hull was not
thinking Of joining in a program of
sanction, either military or economic,
against Japan; he was not under
taking to threaten the japanese. On
the contrary at most he was only
trying to reason with them. And the
great majority of the American people
would see such course as quite proper
and wholly without provocation. Yet
any one who was in Toxic on the
day following that statement would
testify to an instant increase in
tension and an immediate revival of
anti-American feeling.
Dangerous Policy.
The fact that Secretary Hull's re-
marks were uttered almost simultane-
ouSly with similar comment by Sir
Samuel Hoare in the House of Com
mons was, moreover, accepted in
Japan as a sign of significant CO.
ordination of American and British
policies, whereas the chances are ten
to one that the two gestures were
totally independent of each other.
For the Japanese, however, an Anglo
American alliance to restrain them is
the single real danger. They have to
keep it in mind constantly and they
are always watching for some sign !
that it has been made or is in the
making.
We are living at moment in his
tory when at least three great ma
tionS have renounced all restraints of |
treaties which may interfere with |
their present appraisal of their ma
tional needs. But the American peo- |
pie continue to think and talk as If |
international law had behind it a
moral force which invests it with real |
authority.
Sooner or later, however, we are
going to get into a war with Japan
utterly without intention If we con-
tinue this procedure of moral pro-
nouncement. And although the posi- |
bility Of becoming involved in war is
unmistakable, the prospect of accom-
plishing anything by such perform
ances is exactly nil. You can't arrest |
either by legal citation or by moral
appeal a great nation which has
launched itself upon an adventure in
which it feels its very existence is at
stake. All that you can do under such
circumstances is to anger the nation
thus embarked. That is what we did
with Japan over the Manchurian af-
fair and that is what it would seem
that the State Department is setting
out to do again.
(Copyright. lD3b,)