The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1935-08-02
QUAKE EXPERT
JUST GUESSER.
SAYS SCIENTIST
And That Explains Failure
This Week, He Adds
as Afterthought.

BIZ Unifcd Prcss
PASADENA, Cal, Aug. 2.-Reu-
ben Greenspan, who forecasts earth
ouakes, is no more than a good
RUesser. the Carnegie Institution and
the California Institute of Tech
nology declared today.
DR.. Max Gutenberg of the Car
negie Institutions chronological lab
oratory at California Tech. init
mated that any one who took the
trouble to guess often enough could
forecast with equal success the
coming of a temblor
Recently earthquake predictions
have been published" said DR..
Gutenberg. Especially for July 30
a destructive earthquake was tore
cast, in some instances Turkey, Per-
STA, Western India and the northern
part of Africa being mentioned as
the region or origin. In others,
more exactly. a strong shock in
Western India was predicted for
that date. No destructive shock cor
responding to the prediction has oc-
Cured"
Theory Is RidicuIed
According to the report" he
added, "a prediction was based on
changes of the gravitational pull
due to the varying position of the
sun, the moon and the planets. The
moon produces tides in the solid
crust of the earth with an up and
down movement twice a day which
frequently exceeds one foot. The
effects produced by the sun are
about One-quarter of those of the
moon, while the effect of the plan
cts is only very small fraction of
that
If the gravitational pull of these
bodies is really acting as a ma jor
cause Of earthquakes, there should
be a clear parallelism between
earthquake frequencies and the
changes in the gravitational pull
Statistics, however, show that in
many regions such a paralleliSm
definitely does not exist, while in
others there is a slight change in
the frequency of earthquakes cor
responding to these changes in
gravity, but are far too small to
base earthquake predictions on this
fact.
Theory Is Not New
1T should be kept in mind" con-
tinued DR.. Gutenberg, besides that
these changes in gravity, or the
i6,es of the earth's crust, could act
as a trigger force only, which will
not produce an earthquake unless
another cause has built up strong
stress in a certain region. AS long
as we do not know these stresses.
all attempts to predict earthquakes
will be without success.
This fact explains the failure of
the recent forecast as we'll as many
others in previous year on the same
theory which is not at all new.
Earthquake prediction must in
clude the exact region of the shock.
the time of occurrence and the in
tensity Statistics show that there
is practically no day without earth
quakes and days with more than 10
mild shocks are very frequent"
Many Shocks Recorded
After the occurrence of a strong
shock. literally thousands of after
shocks are recorded" said Dr. Gu
tenberg.
AS there is an average of about
100 earthquakes a year strong
enough to produce some damage
somewhere on the earth, the total
number of earthquakes. including
the after shocks, occurring during
one year is at least a few hundred
thousand.
"A prediction of mild shocks in
the region of the islands NORTH CT
New Zealand and northwest of Aus
tralia will fit most days in the year,
as this is one of the most active
earthquake regions on the earth.
Recently even strong shocks have
occurred there very frequently"