Evening star., 1935-08-04
LONDON LOOKS TO u. S.
AS WAR CLOUDS GATHER
Turns From Geneva to Washington
Ethiopian Events Bound to Finish
What Manchurian Doings Began.

theV must now COiDS W Oil dSACcihCA4O
either with the United States or with
japan. An agreement with Japan
would not be difficult, since it would
involve no more than the recognition
of the new Asiatic Monroe Doctrine
which Toxic has formulated. But IN
effect it would mean, for the British,
abandoning China to Japan.
More popular both in England and
In the DOminiOnS would be an Anglo
American alliance. And behind the
scenes that is what almost all shades
of British opinion favor. AS stated
by Lord Lothian, whom Americans
remember better as Philip Kerr, such
an alliance would take the form of an
agreement by which the United States
assumed responsibility for British in
terests in the Far East and Britain
covered the United States in Europe.
Freed from the necessity to deal With
the problems of the Pacific, Britain
/ could concentrate her attention upon
Europe. All of which is but another
Way of saying that the British, per-
/ ceiving that the League of Nations IS
done, are looking about TO discover
! some substitute and have discovered
/ it in an Anglo-American partnership.
If the United States will not agree,
then the British will have to come to
| terms with Japan. But they are sat-
| isfied that an Anglo-Japanese alliance
would be unwelcome to the United
! States and that the fear Of seeing such
an alliance consummated might drive
| us into the British partnership. For
/ the present We are not likely to see
any other disclosures of British pur-
pose than are furnished by public
declarations like the recent speeches
of Stanley Baldwin and Sir Samuel
Hoare. In the London press, too,
signs of the same reasoning have been
disclosed and undoubtedly this good
will offensive" will continue.
If the British acquire free hand
in Europe, that is, if they are able
either by an American or Japanese
partnership to dismiss Far Eastern re-
sponsibilities. then they can exercise
greater influence and enjoy larger Sc
curity. Their situation would be
stronger if the Anglo-American alli-
ance came of. because then they
could rely upon our moral support in
Europe as well as our physical back
ing in Asia. Japan. by contrast, could
not help them in Europe and an An
Il glo-Japanese alliance would raise Rus
sian difficulties.
Political Complications
The British plans are. moreover,
complicated BY the growing obscurity
in the American domestic political
situation. If Roosevelt were to be
beaten next year, then any agree
ments already made with him might
not commend themselves to Repub
lican successor. Conversely, the Presi-
dent himself would undoubtedly hesi-
tate to run the risks of an alliance
with Great Britain which might be-
come one of the issues of the ap
preaching campaign. Until after
November. 1895. therefore. little but
Spadeword is likely to be undertaken
by the British government, which has
an election OF its own to surmount
this year.
Nevertheless the essential fact IS
that. London has turned away from
Geneva and is now looking to Wash
ington. 1t is plainly aware of the
fact that for a very long time to come
the League must be without practical
value Ethiopian events are bound
to finish what Manchurian doings be-
gan. Neither morally nor materially
could the League do anything to re-
strain the Germans if they should
undertake a new Austrian operation
Then the situation would be at least
as bad as it was in 1914, when
Austria undertook to invade Serbia
And another general war, with all
that it must imply for Britain, would
be assured
The British hope to stave off that
war for another year and a half at
least, that is, until the political situa-
ton in the United States has cleared
up. Then they hope to establish an
understanding with US based upon
naval agreements and designed to
operate to restrain Japan in Asia and
Germany in Europe. If, however,
Washington remains unSympathetic
then they must go to Toxic and pay
the price which will be demanded
there For they are now satisfied
that war in Europe can only be post
poned and not prevented and they are
equally convinced that only on Anglo
American alliance would permit
them to remain neutral in this
struggle.
Mean to Avoid Trouble.
Meantime, however, the British mean
to avoid trouble with the nations
which they most fear-namely, Ger
many and Japan. That is why. de-
spite French protests, they made q
separate bargain with the Germans
which in effect constituted a recog-
milton that the treaty of Versailles
was dead. That is why, contrary to
American desires, they now accept
the Japanese refusal TO renew the
Washington and London ratios of naval
strength. On the other hand they
will not press the Ethiopian question
to the point where an open break
with Italy would result and they con-
tinue to "eaff1rm their loyalty to the
Locarno ,greements assuring French
security.
Nominally, of course, the British
will continue to insist upon the value
of the League. If they could, more>
over, they would gladly aid in re-
storing its lost prestige, because for
them it would provide an invaluable
instrument of national policy. As
long as it preserved even a Semblance
of vitality, so long they could refuse
to enter into any continental system
of alliances. And even now they still
use it publicly as an alibi. But in
private they do not disguise the fact
that Ethiopia has demolished Geneva.
As long as there was any basis for
hope that the United States might
join the League, Sc long London
clung to it. But the vote on the
World Court resolution destroyed that
hope. Until Great Britain can find
substitute, she will go through the