Evening star., 1935-02-24

garded as anti-war. Her only possible
ally is Japan. and then only against
Russia. Japan could and would give
no help in Europe.
Nor is there danger of Yugo-
slavia's breaking the peace on her
own account. The internal differ
ences between Serbs, Croats and
Slovenes are too deep and too bitter.
What of Russia? The Soviet gov
ernment is in the throes of economic
reconstruction. There are still many
difficulties ahead. A war would upset
all the cherished plans of state-build-
ing. Russia will fight if she is actually
attacked by Japan in the East, but
only under the strongest provocation.
During the last two years Russia has
swallowed every insult and humilia-
ton from the Japanese. The situation
between these two ASiatic powers Is
now much better.
Now, why have the war clouds in
Eastern Asia rolled by? There has
been no change Of heart among the
imperialistS of Tokyo! Why did the
Japanese not make good their threat
to seize Vladivostok and the maritime
provinces of Siberia. where Russia
was apparently weak and where Japan
was so strong? The answer is that
actually Russia is not so weak; rather,
it is Japan that is vulnerable.
Russia Strong in East.
The Russian government has ex-
pected a japanese attack for some
years; consequently they have been
busily strengthening their forces in
the Far East. The Japanese armies
might make some headway in the
maritime provinces. but that would
be only the beginning. Asiatic and
European Russia together are so vast
that Japan herself could not possibly
hope to fight a decisive war against
the colossus In any case, the jap
anese national plan is said to be to
obtain control, directly or indirectly.
Of all China This would strain her
resources to the utmost.
Perhaps most important of all, the
japanese military and naval leaders
are aware of serious technical
weakness The Japanese air force is
not efficient, despite the best ma
chimes and equipment obtainable. The
reason for this is that, for physio-
logical reasons, the Japanese do not
make good air fighters, and they know
it. The Russian air force, on the
other hand. could probably hold its
own in personnel and equipment with
~. 1~ll -, 1F
Russo-Japanese war the army which
won command of the air would have
an immense advantage.
For all these reasons, added to the
difficult financial position Of Japan,
we can now rule out this former dan
ger altogether. The Japanese Navy is
strong. But Russia is not vulner-
able to attacks from the sea- The
present Japanese government has be-
come suspect again since it denounced
the Washington naval treaty. Many
level-headed people on both sides of
the Atlantic have drawn the con-
clusion that Japan means war and
desires a period for a feverish pro-
gram of warship building without
restrictions. In the case of a Russo
Japanese war, the present Japanese
Navy is sufficient, and decision
would not be taken at sea at all.
Aginst whom is the Japanese Navy
directed?
Britain Too Strong for Japan.
The French and the Dutch have
some suspicion that Japan casts an
envious eye over their eastern possess
Sions. But an attack on these COL
onies could be launched only as an
act of sheer aggression. contrary to
the Kellogg BRAND pact, which Japan
has not denounced. The League of
Nations would be strong enough to
function in such an event, and Brit
ish public opinion would support the
League even to the extent of defend
ing the attacked colonial power or
powers. Japan is not strong enough
to fight the British Empire single
handed.
What of Japanese attack on
America, or American interests, or the
American protectorates? There are
many in Europe, including English
ulCI1, "llO b1lAo q POSSIBILITY. ouI
if this danger becomes real, it can be
overcome by defensive understand
ing between London and Washington.
We can be sure of one thing in an
uncertain world, and that is that the
war lords of TOXIC will not challenge
the English-speaking peoples. They
are not ready to do so now, and could
not make ready for several years.
What of the smaller powers of
Europe? Not one of them is in a con-
dition to make war, and few have the
desire to do so. Hungary, for example,
with serious territorial grievances, is
far too weak to fight the Little En-
tente Of Rumania, Czechoslovakia and
Yugoslavia. And Hungary has no
allies except doubtful Italy.
Racial Problem in Poland.
The Poles, though they reckon
themselves a great power, within their
own borders have serious racial
problem in their unassimilated mi
norities; also, they are uncomfortably
placed, strategically, between Russia
and Germany. However good the re-
lations may be between Warsaw and
Berlin at the moment, the Germans
have not forgotten the Polish Corri-
dor nor the loss Of Upper Silesia.
I have left the English-speaking
nations to the last. If any one seri-
ously suggested that the United States
would start a war against any one,
they would be laughed out of court.
What of Rritaino We have Ollr
chauvinists and our militarists, and
they have a certain influence. But
we have passed our great period Of
imperial expansion. Also, the British
empire has curious political struc-
ture In matters Of foreign policy and
peace and war, the self-governing
Dominions have the undoubted right
to act as sovereign states. II the
government at Westminster thought