The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1935-06-28
Liberal Viewpoint
by DIR. HARRY ELMER BARNES

TODAY marks the twenty-frst anniversary of
Il the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdi-
nand by the fanatical Bosnian youth Princip-
| the spark in the European powder-house which
set of the World War. The Serbian cabinet had
known of the plot for a month, but did nothing
to stamp it out or to warn Austria.
In the first place, if Franz Ferdinand had
escaped twentyOne years ago, it is probably that
there would have been no European war
While the diplomatic documents clearly re-
veal the fact that France and Russia we're await
ing favorable incident" in eastern Europe or
the Balkans to serve as the basis for a war to
obtain the Straits for Russia and AlSace-Lor-
raine for France, they would have preferred to
wait few years after 1914 in order that Russia
might complete her vast military preparations.
! 1t is an open secret that France and Russia
believed that the expected incident" would
probably be provided by the uprsings which it
was hoped might follow the death Of the aged
Emperor Franz Ferdinand of Austria.
IN the first six months of 1914 there was con-
siderable revolt in the British government, led
| oy LlOyd-George against the Francomania and
Germanophobia of Gray, Grove and others in
the British Foreign Office The kaiser was also
doing his best to promote more cordial relations
with Britain. Given another year or two, the
British government might have been less willing
| to help pull the French and Russian chestnutS
out Of the fire
1t is quite possible that France and Russia
would have been eager to tackle the Central
Powers without the aid of England by 1916 but
the chances are that they would have thought
twice before so doing.
If war had been averted, we should have been
saved the loss of some 100000 human beings
/ in killed, wounded, missing and starved. We
might have been spared the direct monetary loss
of over $3.50, 100000 and indirect financial
| burdens even larger. We should not have had
| the tragedy of Versailles and the sixteen years
| OF vengeance, oppression, economic choaS and
Stalmate which have followed.
The bitter and dangerous fires of super
patriotism would have burned less freely Aus
tria- Hungary under Franz Ferdinand would have
| become triune rather than a dual monarchy,
| the third division giving the Slavs freedom
and autonomy. This action would probably have
| forced Russia to accord greater self-government
to Poland without any storing up Of international
| dynamite in the Polish corridor.
IT seems relatively certain that there would
Il have been less oppression of national minor
tiles than exists today in Europe after the sacri-
flee of millions in behalf of the rights of small
nations" Instead of 80 national states to serve
as focal points of ardent nationalism and high
tariff policies, would have but 10.
1t is likely that Europe would be still con-
.inent made up mainly of constitutional mon
arches The royaliStS would have had to make
many concessions to popular demands, but it is
mprobably that either Fascsm or Communism
would have attained any such proportions as they
have. Russia was already headed for repetition
of the 1905 revolution in June 1914-which was
one reason why the Tsarist government accepted
the opportunity of war before full military prep
arations were completed.
In the realm of economics we would have
been spared the great war costs, war debts, repa-
rations and other disastrous economic results of
| the world conflicts.
1t is likely that we would have undergone one
or more depreSsons-We were headed for one il
1914 before war demands stopped it prematurely
but it is not probable that we would have gone
| into the tail spin of 1929 and thereafter. The
old order of capitalism and nationaliSm would
have been in a state Of gradual atrophy rather
than in the commissions in which we find it to-
day. More striking of all, perhaps. in the eco
nOmic field, we would lack the great challenge o.
Soviet Russia to the old order of society.
There would probably have been no forma
international body like the League of Nations no.
any Kellogg Pact. Very likely we would still b.
depending upon the balance of power and arbi
tration treaties to preserve peace. These would
be manifestly inadequate, but it would need
rash person to alege that they would be more
impotent than the agencies Of today in worlC
relations.
Such are the probabilities if Franz Ferdinand
had escaped and Europe had kept the peace
What might have happened if Russia, France
and Serbia had tackled the Central Powers sa!
in 1916 or 1917, we may leave to those with SUI
perior powers of historical imagination. Tha
matters would have been worse than today ma!
be doubted.