Evening star., 1935-11-11

ArKanSas n. Jersey - 16 =
california 2? .. N. Mexico 3
Colorado = 8 New York A. =
Connecticut - N. Carolina - IL
delaware -. N; Dakota
Florida 7 Ohio o6
Georsia - - II Oklahoma - II
Idaho 1865 Oregon 3
Illinois 80 - % Pennsylv MIA 36 -
Indiana a Rhode Is -
Iowa 1880 IL s. Carolina - 3
kansas - g 8. Dakota = 4
kentucKy II Tennessee - IL
LOUISIANA - = 10 Texas ----- - ~
Maine Utah 4
Maryland - Vermont - 3
MaSsachust is Virginia II
Michigan - ~ WaShington \
Minnesota w. Virginia 8
MISSISSIPPI Wisconsin - L.
MlsSourl 10 wyoming 3
MMSbn1sha Mebrasta : ro,.,, o7s o,o
The majority needed to win is 266.
so it will be seen that Mr. Roosevelt
would have Al votes to spare.
Three States Factors.
But If Illinois, Indiana and Yves.
Virginia. which are Republican States.
were to 60 against the President-a
total of 81 votes-he would be de-
feated in the above grouping OF
electoral votes.
Illinois, on the other hand, has
been normally Republican only be-
cause the heavy Democratic vote IN
Chicago and its immediate vicinity
city workers-was usually overbal-
anced by the heavy farm vote of the
doMnstate sections, which have here
tofore been Republican.
To a large extent. this division of
city and country districts has for
more than so years been the way the
Middle Western States have lined up
to give the Republicans the electoral
vote. But with the A. A. A. checks
and benefits and the recent tests In
the referendum votes conducted by
the A. A. A., there have been indica-
tionS that the Roosevelt administration
would win substantial support in the
farm areas.
Even, therefore, II the Republican
farm vote in these States is only cut
in half and the Democrats retain
their normal vote in the cities, the
chances are that Mr.. Roosevelt would
win the electoral vote of nearly all
these agricultural States.
Living Cost Will Figure.
But will the Democrats retain their
urban vote if the high cost of living
begins to affect the consumer? This
is something else again.
Up to now the cost of living argu-
ment, or decrease in real wages" has
not been emphasized enough to de-
ternine its political value.
There is, of course, no certainty
that Mr.. Roosevelt would lose all of
New England, as indicated above, or
| California, but there Is strong drift.
in that direction. AS for Maryland,
Ohio, Michigan. New York and New
Jersey. the Republicans aIe distinctly
on the upgrade there.
Much will depend on who the Re-
publican candidate will be, but it is
easy to see why the three foremost
contenders for the Republican nomi-
nation come from Kansas, Illinois and
Michigan.
If Gov. Landon can swing Kansas
and make distinct cleavage in those
agricultural States. or if Frank Knox
is strong enough to assure Republican
success in Illinois and Indiana, or if
Senator Vandenberg,s sponsors can
demonstrate how he can be counted
upon to carry Middle Western States,
then the merits of their respective
candidates. will probably take on par
ticular value as the time for getting
delegates begins.
Primaries Will Tell Tale.
No doubt these three men will enter
the primaries in various States and
will thus have tryout with the Re-
publican voters. If the Republican
candidates dodge primaries in the
Spring of 1886, it will be sign of Re-
publican weakness and a strong indi-
cation that the farm districts are dis
inclined to vote for any anti-New Deal
candidates
The foregoing analysis demonstrates,
even in this tentative manner of max
ing up an electoral table, IL months
before the presidential election, how
important it is for the Republicans to
have a constructive agricultural policy
something that can be shown to be
really better for the farmers than what
they now have from the A. A. A.
Have the Republicans such policy?
Not yet. But the parleys among the
agricultural experts of the Republican
party are numerous, and out of these
conferences may come a constructive
alternative. Selling any new plan
to the farmers against the A. A. AS
possession of the propaganda ma
chinery and control of farm organiza-
tions is like convincing a member of
Congress that he ought to abandon the
spoils system and forever forego the
privilege of recommending his friends
to public office. A good argument can
be made for it, but it goes against the
grain Of human nature to expect con-
verts
Must Develop New Strategy.
Hence it would not be surprising If
the Republicans found their best bet
in going after the large blocks of
Democratic votes in every city or town,
even in agricultural States, and max
ing the consumers conscious of the
processing tax, as we'll as the diminish
ing value of the weekly pay envelope
if the Federal budget continues un-
balanced. The extravaganza and
heavy spending and tax issues are
driving votes away from the New Deal
in New England and New York and
may do the same in the cites of the
large Midwestern States like Illinois
and Indiana. But the moral of these
conjectures is that President Roosevelt
can't be beaten by any strategy as
yet developed by the Republicans, and
maybe, as was once remarked by Wal
ter Lippmann, only by his own mis-
takes or the blunders of his own
encourage.
(Copyrieht 1857
A.