Evening star., 1935-05-17
FORCES ALIGNED
AGAINST Il DUCE
League of Nations and eli.
mate of Abyssinia Are
Grave Obstacles.
BY RANDOLPH LEIGH.


Mussolini's double-barreled warning
to Abyssinia and England--telling the
former that he is ready TO strike
and the latter that he will brook no
medoling-calls attention to the i'm
portance Of what is about to be done.
At the same time 1t emphasizes the
two serious obstacles In Italy's path.
Those obstacles are the climate Of
Abyssinia and the League of Nations.
Her equatorial climate and topography
have saved AbysSinia through many
centuries by rendering the land
dangerous and costly for invaders.
But the League of Nations is an asset
which she acquired as recently as
1928. thanks tc the aid Of France,
over Mussolini's bitter but unavailing
protest.
The biggest blunder on the part Of
Italy. however has been, in the
present emergency, to allow herself to
be caught in the act of preparing
coup. Her whole program depends on
doing things and then discussing the
reasons. In this case the discussions
are preceding the deeds, with bad
results inside and outside Italy.
Rainy Season Begins.
1t had been planned to strike last
Autumn. but the European entangle-
mentS tied Mussolini's hands, Now
that he feels free to act, the climate
OF Africa halts him, for he can only
campaign against his enemy in
Autumn and Winter, the dry season.
Right now the short" rainy season
in Abyssinia is ending and the period
Of heavy rains, which will continue
into September Is beginning.
He has already massed large forces
in Eritrea TO the north Of Abyssinia,
and in Somaliland, to the south.
Meanwhile, helG motionleSs by the
rains, he is having for the first time
to feel the full weight of operating on
absolutist lines in a world which still,
in its international relations at least,
proceeds by negotiation and by treaty
Mussolini Loses Prestige.
Once the matter of treaty -observ-
ance is raised, Italy's cause suffers
internationally and Mussolini loses
prestige at home. Unfortunately for
Mussolini, his most troublesome inter-
national questions grow out Of his
own acts. and are not inherited from
the previous regime. For instance,
the treaty with Abyssinia which Is
now causing so much embarrassment
to Italy was signed by II Duce In
1928, and provides for arbitration Of
the very issues which Mussolini is not
arbitrating. II denounces mobiliza-
ton by one party against the other,
but Italy IS openly mobilizing against
her rival on two fronts, while that
rival, though arming. has not mob
ilized
Similarly, the League issue as 1t
affects the African dispute. cuts right
across the present European align.
ments. AbySsinia was put into the
League of Nations at a time when
France and Italy were hostile to one
another, and France desired to frus-
trate MuSsolini'S colonial ambitions.
Now that Italy and France are tenn
porarily united against Germany. dis
regard of the League of Nations in
this instance will weaken the case
of the Entente against Germany. To
treat such commitments as a scrap OF
paper hardly strengthens the hands
of those who are denouncing their
European rivals for similar tactics.
Italy's Policy Opposed.
Fundamentally. England and France
are opposed to Italy's policy. As things
stand England protects the sources Of
the Blue Nile valuable for irrigation
purposes in her posSessions) through
her arrangements with Abyssinia. At
the same time she is in the position
Of q preferred nation there CONNER
cially. France, for her part, holds
special railway concessions in Eastern
Abyssinia, and profits from the use Of
her port instead of the Italian one on
the Red Sea. BY treaty, Of course,
AbySsinia has free port in Italys
Nassau, but she has learned how little
that means in time Of trouble.
1t boils down to this in Africa:
Italy came last, and got least. She
has very poor land in most of her
colonial territory, and she has to deal
with very obdurate natives. 1t cost
her in 1884 IA times as much to ad-
minister her Somaliland possessions
as she got from them. She hopes to
do better by reaching far up into the
fertile Ethiopian highlands and taking
better land. with real resources in
timber and minerals. Those would
be Immediately negotiable assets,
whereas her present returns are from
costly irrigation projects in q bleak
region.
There is much for Italy to gain il
she can take over all of Abyssinia.
The fringes of that lands, however,
will profit her little, for they are
alternately parched desert areas and
malarial bog lands. The tse-tse fly
deadly. to horses adds another diff
Guilty for the invader. Finally. an
AbySsinia army of at least 100000
is to be considered. 1t is inferior to
the Italian forces that will oppose it.
Nevertheless an army less than half
that size inflicted a terrible defeat on
the Italians some 40 years ago,
thereby halting Italian colonial ex-
mansion for three decades.