The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1935-08-15
SUN is USED To
STUDY WEATHER
CENTURY HENCE
Scientist Makes Remarkable
Success in Long Range
Forecasts.

By tnifrd Prose-
WASHIN GTON. Aug Is
Sciences dream OF fOrecasting the
weather 100 or more years in adj
vance today appeared on the verge
Of achievement with release Of new
data supporting theories Of Dr.
Charles G. Abbot, Smithsonian In
stitUte secretary.
The possibility OF effective long
range forecasts Of the weather be-
came apparent when ne SmithsOn-
ian revealed that DR. Abbot had
actually prepared advance forecasts
for the fun years 1894. 1885 and 1896
The series Of forecasts were made
in 1888 and sealed Those for 1894
have now been opened and checked
with actual weather conditions. An
amazing degree Of accuracy was dis
closed
The key to the forecasts. DR. Abbot
revealed. was A discovery that the
sun maintains 23-year cycle Of
radiation The weather. study indi-
Gates. varies generally in direct re-
lationShip to this cycle
BY comparison Of data over these
23-year periods 1t is possible to fore
cast with considerable accuracy the
weather over the next 23-year period
Predicts Drought in 1855
Local conditions. Dr. Abbot ex-
planned. may disturb the recurrence
OF the cycle in certain areas but
many Of these factors are expected
to be eliminated after more thor
ough and intensive study Of weather
conditions
As indicating the Importance OF
the Smithsonian findings. it was
pointed out that had the Abbot
theory been known 30 years ago. it
would have been possible to predict
accurately the great Western
drought out Of which the country is
only now emerging.
Similarly it was indicated the Ma
ton may we'll expect another period
Of extreme dryness in the West in
the middle 1950s.
Net Results Analysed
The net result of Dr. AbbOt's
studies. the Smithsonian said was.
That weather the world over
huctuated- specifically for localities
because Of local conditions-in a
great 23-year cycle which was eS-
sentiaIy a double sunspOt cycle.
The temperature Of the city Of
New York was below normal during
the month of January. 1912. it could
be expected. all other things being
the same. TO be below normal in
January 1895.
IF there was a great drought in
the summer Of 1884. subnormal rain
fall could be expected in the sum
mer of 1877 In other words. every
% years the weather in any par
ticular Fart of the world tends to
repeat itself
sun Only One Factor
The Smithsonian emphasized that
this did not mean that if the aver
age temperature was 10 degrees be-
low normal in January. 1912. that it
would be certainly 10 degrees below
normal in the same month of 1885.
1T did mean. however said the
institution. that the particular 10
cality could expect colder than aver
age weather eliminating not far
from the month of January. 1885.
Solar variations. after all. is only
one factor in weather. hOwsoever
dominating it may be. and moderate
displacements of effects sometimes
occur in the same direction for many
months at a time"
DR.. Abbot prepared sc forecasts of
temperature and rainfall for differ
ent parts of the United States for
1934-l936.
Once the graphs were drawn they
were locked up. The forecasts for
1884 now have been checked against
the actual weather for the entire Il
months.
Twenty-Seven per cent Of them
DR.. Abbot calls excellent" They
were almost 100 per cent accurate
from month TO month.