Evening star., 1935-03-31
CONSERVATIVE VICTORY
in 1886 BARE POSSIBILITY
Split i'm New Deal and Candidacy of
Out-and-out Radical May Defeat
Roosevelt.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

TINE presidential situation year
ahead of us, the prenomina-
tion part of it, is shaping up
Il with surprising speed ana
defniteness. There is mean
ing in the face that this is happening
so early. The nominating conventions
are still more than IA months ahead
they will be held in June, 1886.
One fact apparently clear is that
the conservative side of the fight, the
anti-New Deal side, will be within the
framework of the Republican party
There is no sign Of new conservative
party. There will be almost certainly
third parties on the radical side
Senator Huey Longs, the La Follette's
Progressive party, and perhaps an
other. But apparently the conserva-
tive side will be under one standard,
the Republican one.
There is no sign of coalition con-
servative party. There is no sign of
the new constitutional party" that
David Lawrence suggested a year ago.
There is no sign of a formal coalition
of conservative Republicans with con-
:ervative Democrats. Apparently the
conservative side is to express itself in
the Republican party only.
Perhaps this was to be expected,
and it may simplify the lineup. Yet
In some ways it is pity. There was,
and still is, much promise in the idea
of a coalition of the conservatives in
the Republican party with conserva-
tives in the Democratic party. Such
rfy 70 q
true and complete rallying place for
all conservatives. 1t would provide
home for everybody, everywhere. who
is opposed to the New Deal and also
opposed to radical movements of every
kind.
Glass as an Illustration.
If any one wishes to realize how
happy a thing such a combination
would be, imagine two conditions:
Imagine Democratic Senator Carter
Glass of Virginia as being 10 years
younger, as being 81 instead of II,
and then imagine the Republicans
nominating him for President Can
any one doubt that that would pro-
vide the practically perfect home for
all conservatives, for all who oppose
both the New Deal and the other
radical movements? The other Vir-
ginia Senator, Harry F. Byrd, is
young enough and is otherwise almost
as we'll adapted to the role as Sen
ator Glass. But one sees no move in
this direction, or any other direction
looking to a formal union of con-
servative Republicans and conserva-
tive Democrats.
It is a pity the combination seems
not likely. Among other reasons the
South is going to be, by year from
now, the part of the country that will
be most completely fed up with the
New Deal. Any one familiar with what
is happening about cotton, and some
other developments in the South, can
make for himself a rough picture of
how things are going to be in the South
a year from now. In that territory,
much of the turning away from the
New Deal, the disillusionment with it.
will express itself by getting behind
Huey Long. The rest of it would like
to express itself by voting for a con-
servative for President But if the
only conservative in the race has the
letter "R" after his name, the tradi-
tional Southern reluctance to vote the
Republican ticket will prevent the
country from getting the benefit of a
complete union of conservative voters.
Conservatives Enough.
There are today enough conserva-
tive votes in the country to elect
President next year under the con-
ditionS in which next years campaign
is likely to be fought. If all the con-
servative vote can be brought together
and held together, and if the non-con-
servative vote is split up among Mr..
Roosevelt, Huey Long, the La Follette's
Progressive party, and perhaps two or
three other groups-in that condition
there is not doubt that the conserva-
tives could elect their candidate
In the congressional election last
November the Republicans cast up
ward of 100000 votes, the Demo-
Gratis upward of 100000. That
100000 is the irreducible minimum
of anti-New Deal votes. It expressed
itself, it went to the polls at time,
last November, when the New Deal
and Mr.. Roosevelt were still high in
popularity. There are more than 49,
o00, 900 now.
If to that Is, 100000 there were add
ed all the Democrats who are con-
servative and who by the present time
have come to have strong distaste for
the New Deal-if these were added to
the 100000, there would be enough
to elect President. There would be
enough possibly, to elect President
even If MIR. Roosevelt were the only
candidate on the other side. But it is
quite certain Mr. Roosevelt will not be
the only candidate on the other side.
The radicals and the diScontented who
so far have composed much of Mr..
Roosevelt'S support and whom he has
tried to keep with him, will be divided
next year. Mr.. Roosevelt will still have
many of them, but some will 20 to a
Huey Long party, La Toilette party,
ana perhaps one or two others. includ-
Ing the regular Socialist and Commu-
mist parties
Angles for Radicals.
It is plain that Mr.. Roosevelt and
the political managers of the admin
istration are disturbed by the pros
pect OF a new radical party or parties.
Some of Mr. RooSevelt's recent actions
can only be Interpreted as an effort
on his part to hold the radicals with
him, to prevent radical third parties
from arising rext year. That would
explain the violence of his tone in
his message to Congress about public
utilities.
That message was not made neces-
sary by any condition in Congress.
The bill for the regulation and ex-
termination of public utilities was at
that time the strongest adminisNa-
tion measure before Congress. It had
the least need Of the oxygen of
public blast from the President. The
fact that Mr.. Roosevelt sent a mes
sage on the public utility bill and
not one in favor of the public works
bill or the social security bill or the
banking proposal can be best ex-
planned by assuming the message had