Evening star., 1935-04-21
WALLACE PREDICTS FULL
GRAIN BINS DESPITE DUST
Great Plains Not Yet a Desert and
Plenty of Wheat Still Is in Prospect,
Says Secretary.

Regions to the east and west have
had more nearly normal moisture.
When crop reporters looked over
the Winter wheat stand last Decem-
ber they found 100000 acres sown.
or more than was sown In either
the Fall of 1881 or 1882. Because
of drought, however, they looked for
low yields per acre and considerable
abandonment of acreage, perhaps Is
per cent. A harvest of around 475,-
100000 bushels was indicated.
When the crop reporters went over
the same ground as of April /. 1885.
however. they changed their estimate
of acreage abandoned from 18 to %
per cent. and reduced their estimate
Of harvest expected by 10000 900 BUSH
els to around 435 900 900 bushels. We
can charge up 10000, 900 -hushel loss,
therefore. to drought and dust, but
chiefly to drought. Whether the loss
will be more or less depends upon the
weather during the next few weeks.
Against the possibility of a short
Winter wheat crop. and before the
dust storms were news, the Agricul-
tural Adjustment Administration made
its plans to expand the acreage of
Spring wheat. BY March it was
known that farmers in the Spring
wheat country, north of the Winter
wheat belt. intended to SOW about IT,
100000 acres to Spring wheat. To play
safe, the A. A. A. released Spring
wheat growers from contract restric-
tions and encouraged them to SOW
another two or three million acres
How much of this expansion will be
possible. OF course. no one can yet eSti-
mate.
Wheat Situation Analysed.
The wheat situation. then, is approx
imately this: If Winter wheat harvest
is 435 900 900 bushels. If Spring wheat
covers 100000 acres and yields
merely as we'll as last year a low yield
year,, the combined wheat harvest will
total around 63O,O00,00O bushels, or
100, 100000 bushels above either 1884
or 1888. Added to the carryover indi-
Gated for July l, 1885, of 10000, 900
bushels the total supply will then be
780,000,000 bushels, against normal do
mestic requirements. of 625.000 900
bushels. Exclusive of exports this
would leave us carryover on July l.,
1926, of l55 100000 bushels. The nor
NAL carryover of pre-depression years
was around 100000 bushels.
This estimate assumes virtually no
improvement in yield per acre over
last year. Given more nearly normal
rainfall during coming months, yield
per acre would be higher; a total
wheat harvest of nearly 100000. 900
bushels would not be impossible. Ex-
elusive of exports, this would leave
us with a carryover of around 200,-
100000 bushels on July /, 1896.
Continuing drought and dust storms
in the area now most affected would
seriously interfere with the planting
of Spring crops. But since no one
knows what the weather will be dur
ing the next few weeks. when Spring
crops normally go in. speculation
about the outcome is idle.
I know that feed shortage and live
stock and even human distress would
have been far worse last year, and
might again be this year. except for
the many activities of the Emergency
Relief Administration, the Farm
Credit Administration. the Agricul-
tural Adjustment Administration and
the Department of Agriculture.
A. A. A. Increased Forage Crops.
Many people seem unaware of the
fact that the basic idea of the ad-
Justment program comedies with soil
and human needs. When. in 1894. the
adjustment programs kept $4,000 900
acres out of wheat, corn, cotton and
tobacco, that acreage was available,
and was used, to grow cattle-saving
and soil-saving grass and forage crops.
The 1884 feed shortage. therefore.
would have been materially worse II
the A. A. A. had not been in opera =
ton.
More than year ago the Depart
ment Of Agriculture began a unified
educational effort to persuade farmers
to get more of their crop land into
grass and keep it there. The back
to-grass' campaign could only sue
ceed as we'll as it did, however. be-
cause, for the first time, farmers had
enough income from their cash-crop
acres to put their other acres into
grass. Once this cash-crop income
drops again, the grass will have to be
plowed up to produce more and more
cash crops to meet high fixed charges.
The result is tragic loss to the farm
er, in many areas to the soil, and
to the Nation. Against this loss, only
a longtime, carefully planned pro-
gram of land use can prevail.
Copyright. 1885 by the North American
Newspaper Alliance. Inc)