Evening star., 1935-01-20

" " ana ADVISING tne aQmlnlS-
' tration how to achieve the
ends which Mr.. Roosevelt
himself set out in his recent message
to Congress, writes as follows-I have
italicized one phrase:
Since the balancing of the budget
Is made dependent upon the revival
of business, it becomes the duty of the
Government to reject policies which
obstruct revival and to adopt policies
which promote it 1t involves the
abandonment of merely punitive and
terroristic attacks on priuate business
and banking in favor Of direct regula-
tion of specific evils"
That Is sound advice from the
standpoint of both craftsmanship and
politics. I suppose Mr.. Roosevelt
knows the art of politics well; and I
suppose that If he lacks any knowl-
edge himself it can be supplied to him
by his secretary, Mr. Louis Howe. who
knows the finer subtleties of politics,
and by his Postmaster General, Mr..
James Farley, who knows the direct
politics of organization and patronage.
These two, with their special qualities,
added to Mr. Roosevelt himself, who
knows the politics of mass moods as
well as Mussolini or Hitler-the three
among them must know all the poll
tics there is. Nevertheless, with
humble hat in hand in the presence
OF such expertness and success, I
venture to think that Mr.. Roosevelt is
making a major political mistake.
Business Recovery Held Vital.
For making a happy country-which
Is craftsmanship; and for getting him
self elected in 1936-which is poll
tics, there Is just one formula for
President Roosevelt. That is to bring
about business recovery. Why, then,
does Mr.. Roosevelt give the impression
of having a punitive and terroristic"
attitude toward business?
There are various reasons, includ-
ing the radicals in his administration
who pull him their way. But I sus-
pect the chief reason is something in
Mr.. Roosevelt's own mind. In his
campaign for the presidency, under
the conditions of 1882, it was obvious
the votes of the discontented were his
for the aSking-and he asked for
them and got them. And so Mr..
Roosevelt became "set" that way. He
seems to think now that it is neces-
sary for him to keep that vote; that
he must continue to stir up and feed
the mood of discomfort. He makes
on observers the impression of being
afraid the radical vote and the dis
contented vote will 90 away from him.
The radicals, he seems to feel, must
be constantly placated, must be made
to understand he is for them.
Said to Fear Radicals.
Mr. Roosevelt appears to fear the
radicals, both for his own sake and
for the sake Of the country. Reports
one hears from persons who have
talked with the President say that he
recurs often to this theme. He thinks
it is necessary for him to hold the
radicals in line behind him--lest some
one more radical than he, some Upton
Sinclair, or the equivalent Of him,
should enlist the discontented, dis
place Mr.. Roosevelt, and put real
radical In the White House in 1886.
That fear can well be founded on
one condition only. The one condi-
ton that could cause great mass Of
the voters to be radical in 1896 is
continuation of the business depres-
sion. If the country in 1886 should
be as unhappy as it was at the time
of the election last November, 1t IS
quite possible that some one more
radical than Mr.. Roosevelt would get
formidable support for the presi-
dency. But the best way to avert
that is not for Mr.. Roosevelt to strive
to be so pleasing to the discontented
that they will not turn to any one
else. The true way to avert it is to
get business recovery. With business
recovery, the Upton Sinclairs, the
Huey Longs, the Father Coughlins
and the others will evaporate as surely
as their predecessors did after the
depressions of the early 1905 and the
1870s.
Various Effects.
Let us put it this way: Suppose we
get a real recovery in business. In
that event, can any one doubt that
Mr.. Roosevelt will be overwhelmingly
reelected? Can any one doubt,
either, that the country will be
happy? Since Mr.. Roosevelt must
wish both these results, is there any
answer to the argument that the
course for him is to go straight for
business recovery and do the things
that will bring it about?
Turn the question around. Suppose
that in 1886 the country is still in
the miseries of depression. What eff
feet will that condition have on Mr..
RooSevelt's political fortunes? He will
get the Democratic nomination, of
course; any President in Office can
manage that, especially with such a
manager as Mr.. Farley. But would
Mr.. Roosevelt be reelected? 1t is
by no means certain he would. (Al
that I am saying here is on the as
sumption that the country is still
unhappy in 1850 Mr.. Roosevelt |
knows there is danger to him in 1886;
he thinks, and is right in thinking, |
the danger is from the radicals; and
so he placates the radicals-gives the
radicals constantly a picture of him
self attacking the conservatives. But |
Is that the best way for Mr.. Roose- |
welt to handle the radicals?
Vote Analysed.
To see what will happen in 1886, |
assuming the country has not re-
covered, start with the vote in the
election last November. There were |
some II million Democratic votes, and |
some 13 million Republican ones. Any
calculation for 1886 based on the re-
suits in 1884 must of course be rough, |
because, among several other reasons,
many more voters come to the polls |
in q presidential year. Nevertheless,
for the purpose of very rough calcu-
lation, begin with the II million DEM
ocratic votes and 13 million Repub-
Hcan ones that were cast last No.
vember.
The 13 million Republican votes is |
the rock-bottom conservative vote Of
the country. It Is the irreducible min
imum. Whoever voted against the New
neal last wear will vote against II