The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1935-06-19


S pone hopes Of
- XXI much of an up
Lewis Haney turn until fall.
Much depends upon political
action, which can't be definitely
! forecast. For example, a gov.
eminent spending spree might
speed things up temporarily.
But aside from such cOnSidera-
tionS, a dull summer is indi-
Gated, with the business in
dexes declining a little lower.
Last month, steel production
receded to the lowest rate since
December. At 52.7 per cent Of
the old normal, it compared with
69.4 per cent a year ago. Pig
iron production increased a little,
but this is a dubious indication,
and may be due to the higher
price Of steel scrap. In such cases,
we usually find that either a sus'
tanned rise follows, or a reaction
sets in. Since the former seems
unlikely, some setback in pig iron
is the probability.
On the other hand, machine
tool orders showed a further ex'
pansion in May, rising to. the
highest level since 1880. Although
considerable part of the rise &C.
CURED in foreign business, and
the gains were not shared by
many of the builders, this is a
favorable indication.
Perhaps the chief factor in steel
was the more-than-SeaSonal let"
down in automobile production.
The motor output was the out
standing factor in the spring
squirt, and the recession here
should be closely watched.
Coal production spurted in May,
under the influence Of strike
threats. Since this does not
represent business expansion, any
indexes which contain coal should
be heavily discounted.
Cotton mill activity was little
changed at 1914 per cent Of the
average for 1926. Less cotton
was consumed by the domestic
mills in May than in any May
since 1892.
Building activity, however,
showed a small but encOurag-
ing rise; that is, it declined a
little less than usual, judging
by permits. Although only 1874
per cent Of the average for
1927, the permit figures were
IL per cent above year ago.
This gain was mostly confined
to the Far West and South At
lantic sections. The bureau
cratic building boom in Wash
ingtOn, d. c., was a factory
Factory employment figures
confirm the May recession. At
least, there were declines in New
York and Pennsylvania that were
greater than normal. The most
notable point is that payrolls fell
more than employment. This
was due to a cut in time worked,
as hourly rates of pay changed
little.
This does not augur very we'll
for department store sales. Such
sales, as adjusted by the Federal
Reserve Boards statisticians,
gained in May, a poor showing in
Boston, New York, Philadelphia,
St. Louis and Kansas City terri"
tories, being offset by strength in
San Francisco, Minneapolis, At
lanta and Dallas territories.
During the past year, the gen.
eral level of department store
sales has been around IS per cent
of the 1923-25 average, and in
May was l per cent under year
ago.
Even including coal. the average
daily railway car loadingS ave-
ragged lower in May, considering
the season. The AnnaliSt's adj
justed index was 61.5 per cent Of
normal, against 63.4 per cent in
April.
The trend of bank debts
(checkS drawn on bank deposits)
has been upward since January,
but receded a little in May. AS
everybody knows, deposits have in
creased, but the rate Of turnover
of these deposits has done little,
and declined last month. Banks
still find little chance for sound
loans, and deposits do not repre-
sent a growing use of credit in
business.
My P-V line barometer, which
turned down last November in
anticipation of the recession which
began in March, fell to 1919 for
April, but will apparently be a
little changed for May. Maybe
this suggests sterilization ahead.
But we could be Surer Of this if it
were not for politics, must" bills,
etc. 49,
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