Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1935-06-30
PARTY FORCED TO BACK
NEW DEAL AS 80 NEARS
But Republicans Are Conceded Real
Chance if Conservative Democrats
Show Any Strength.

The President is a shrewd politician.
He follows a course designed to hold
to him the farmers, organized labor,
the distressed and the radical, four
groups which, II kept intact, may be
majority next year
Another reason for the difference Of
the Democratic congressional majority
to the President is the power OF the
purse" which Congress itself voted him.
He has more than $4,000 .000,000 TO
spend, practically in his own discre-
ton. A Congressman whose district
or State wants some of that money
must be in position to get 1t, and he
can hardly hope to get 1t II he has a
record Of voting against the Presidents
measures. Yet another reason, of
course, is patronage.
Patronage Not Enough.
But the reasons of patronage and
money would not alone be enough.
The largest reason for willingness Of
the Democratic majority in Congress
TO pass bills just because they come
from the administration is the election
next year, the belief that the President
still commands the faith OF a majority
of the country.
Can the Republicans, that Is, the
Republicans alone, defeat Mr.. Roose-
welt next year? The vote in 1892 was
15,761.841 for the Republican, Mr..
Hoover: 22,82l ,857 for the Democrat,
Mr.. Roosevelt. For convenience,
speak of it as 16,000,O 900 for the Re-
publicans, 100000 for the Demo-
Gratis.
Those sixteen millions in 1882 must
have been the rock-bottom Republican
vote. Never before did the Repub-
licanS carry so few States except when
the party was split in 1912 Never
was there so much reason for Repub-
licans to vote the other ticket-the
depression alone must have accounted
for millions who voted, not so much
Democratic" as merely for a change.
/ How much shall We estimate the
number Of Republicans who in 1892
voted Democratic? Is three millions
too high a figure? One would guess
there must have been a million who
left the party temporarily because Of
dissatisfaction with the party's record
on prohibition. and two millions more
! who we're restless because of the de-
! presssion and voted merely for a
/ change
/ If the three millions who voted for
/ Mr.. Roosevelt in 1882 should return to
/ the Republicans next year. that change
would leave twenty millions for Mr.
Roosevelt, nineteen millions for the
Republicans.
Another Switch Possible.
There must now be another large
/ number who next year will switch.
! How much shall We estimate the
I number of old-time regular Demo-
/ Gratis who next year will vote against
( Mr.. Roosevelt-Democrats with a past
/ record of uninterrupted party fidelity
| who now think. accurately enough,
! that Mr.. Roosevelt has departed rad
/ ically from Democratic principles, and
who will vote against him next
year? If there are as many as a
million of these. the sum of these
with the other group Of switched votes
/ would be enough to defeat Mr.. Roose-
welt.
Is there any offset to these esti-
mates? Is there any considerable
number of voters who, having voted
Republican in 1882, will next year vote
for Mr.. Roosevelt? Surely there can
not be many.
There is yet another possible loss
that Mr.. Roosevelt may suffer next
year. Up to a few months ago most
of us who observe these matters
closely in Washington we're confident
that Senator Huey Long of Louisi-
ana next year would head a third
ticket. and that he would take some
millions of votes away from Mr..
Roosevelt. This now seems less GER
tain. Mr.. Roosevelt seems to have
realized the possibility, as well as any
one else, and has taken steps to avert
it. Mr.. Roosevelt is going plainly to
the left, and so far to the left az
to leave little room for Senator Long
to start third party, little occasion
for Mr.. Longs followers to be dis
satisfied with Mr.. Roosevelt.
Conservatives May Hold Key.
But there remains still the possi-
bility of a detection from Mr.. Roose-
welt quite different in nature. Huey
Long is a man of facile attitudes,
with no compelling concern about
convictions or consistency. 1t would
be comparatively simple for him next
year to say there is no occasion for
him to head a third party.
But the situation of conservative
Democrats is quite different. I refer
to Democrats like Lewis Douglas.
He can hardly, next year, after his
outspoken criticism of Mr.. Roosevelt.
vote to return the latter to the
White House. In a similar situation
are literally scores Of Democratic
leaders. many of them higher in the
hierarchy than Mr.. Douglas. Not all
have spoken out, but there are many
who feel privately the same way as
Mr.. Douglas, and some who have
stated privately that between now
and next year they will publicly
associate themselves from Mr.. Roose-
velt'
What will Democrats Of this type
do? Democrats never identified with
public leadership can satisfy their
convictions by voting quietly for the
Republican candidate If he is rea-
sonably satisfactory, or by staying
at home. But Democrats who have
been conspicuous in the party, like
Mr.. Douglas, or Democrats who as
public characters have provided lead
ership to large groups of voters, can
hardly live up to their obligations
by merely staying at home on election
day or voting quietly for the Re-
publican candidate.
To provide opportunity for such
CONTINUED on Tenth Page.)
| Guide for Readers