The Omaha guide., 1934-08-04
ECONOMIC

able from Local Lelfare.
AS was anticipated, the appearance
Of summer brought definite declines
in business activity. Early in July
steel ingot production dropped from
62 to 40, and automobiles slid from
80 to 80. During ensuing weeks an
tomobile production recovered some
what; while steel stayed down.
Ti,ere Is nothing extraordinary in
this. But the question is being ask
ed; whsre ars we geirg in bosiness?
IL other WORKS Have we dropped to
a permanently lower level" or will
activity rcboEnd shortly to the levels
Of Nay and June?
In answering that qlestion; various
bu5i.ess obcervers are a long way
fr-4n agreement. The AnnaIist; for
example; which is a conservative au
tho. ity: and Is inimical to many i'm
portant Administration measures;
tends 10 the belief that only part of
the loss will be recovered; and that
tho future Of business is clOuded
with doubt. Other agencies Of irfor
m2tior are encouraging although q
highly cautiols note is evident il
most pronouncements and forecasts.
Experts are uncertain and as a re
suit they ere avoiding as much as
possible definite guesses as to com
ing events in the business world.
This much, however seems def
mite: Progress Of recovery generally
has been disappointingly slow. The
new federal bureaus, including the
NRA., hav not been able to accom-
plish as much as was hoped. The
picture is inevitably confused by
government spending - no one
knows how much Of the rise in bust
ness achieved since two years ago; is
due to artificial stimulation of this
sort al3 how much to genuine re
ccycry- It IS an obvious fact that
if the government puts out billions Of
dams for kind another Of relief
and all the spcial activities from th1
building Of dams to ths CCC CAMPS
fall under that relief heading-sa1es
OF all types Of products are bound to
rise. It is net equally obvious whist
viii hapnen when the government is
forced to slow down or stop this kind
Of 5reading; as no one knows to what
extent pirate enterprises will be able to
tax up the load. !
C~,nsratie business is again feed
renewed demands for initiation; and
for the issuance of fiat money. The
Economists National Committee on
Monetary Policy forecasts that with
the converting Of the next Congress;
tke President VIII attmpt to furthr
dvalue the dollar and issue more u
rency against our gold reserve. Re
suits wolld be problematical - one
PERSONS view is about as good as an
other's-but it would undoubtedly
cause much uncertainty during the
dvaluing process
In brief business is suffering from
the summer drop pus labor troubles
and there is doubt to whether it will
be able to recover at a normal speed.
One good sign is that the strikes
seem closer to settlemnt - but the
labor problem important as it is is
but one of many issues industry must
face. We are entering a crcia pc
nod and events Of tn next half dozen
months will show where we; as an
nation; are going.
900
The much opposed; much defended
Tariff Bill; which gives
President the unchecked power to
agreements with foreign ma
whereby we will lower the tar
ifs on their goods by as much as so
per rent; passed the last Congress.
On July % the marhinery it created
went into motion for the first time;
negotiations for a reciprocal
with Cuba were started.
No piece of legislation of the last
two years is more for reaching than
tariff bill or more potentially i'm
portant. The Administration plans
to use it in a vast effort to rehabili
tate world trade break the interna
tional commercial deadlock that is
now ting up the ports of the world;
and make the tariff an instrument in
rstoring prosperity.
The problems the Administration
faces in doing this are Of the great
est and most isvolved kind. For ex
ample; debts and ~currencies; most
dbated Of subjects; contributed to the
trade collapse-they are inextricably
involved IN trade revival. Prhaps
more important still; is the growth
of nationalistic feeling which has
stirred up much i'll will between most
wy slowly in negotiating trade trea
this and other countries will move
of the great powers. At any rate.
this an dother countries will move
very lowly in negotiating trade trea
Ties. Early agreements will cnvar