Evening star., 1934-12-23
WAR PERIL DISCOUNTED
In SLAV-MACYAR ROW
Unity of Four Great Powers in Pressing
for Peace Interpreted as Insuring
Restraint Of'ViOlence.

foundly resented the effort Of the
smaller countries to dictate their for
eign policies, for they recognized at
once that the indictment of Hungary
was only the pretext for what was at
tempted. The British in particular,
having been involved in the World
War which had its origin in Serbian
policy, bitterly resented what seemed
a new attempt on the part Of the
same capital to set Europe by the ears
again to satisfy fresh southern Slav
ambitions.
Result: Powers United.
Thus what the YugoSlav operation
accomplished was to unite the great
powers. That unity was really in
sured by the growth of the German
menace. While Germany was weak
France and Italy could afford to quar-
rel In the Danubian region, setting
up their rival systems of alliance.
When, however, Hitler came to power
and turned his attention to Austria
the necessity for a common front be-
tween the two Latin powers became
obvious. After the July putsch, too,
Mussolini at last accepted as defini-
tive the bankruptcy of his policy of
playing a balance of power game be-
tween France and Germany and
turned to Paris.
Obviously, then, because all the
four great powers concerned were fol-
lowing a common policy in the crisis
of 1884, there could be no parallel
with the events Of 1914, when they
we're hopelessly divided. Thus the
Leagues resolution of the crisis was
of no lasting significance. In the
many crises which preceded the World
War-those Of Tangier, Bosnia, Casa
blanca, Agadir and the Balkan Wars
-old-fashioned diplomacy had been
perfectly adequate to prevent con-
flict because the great powers were
still resolved to avoid war. AS late
as the Winter of 1923 the Council
of Ambassadors at London nquidated
the Balkans Wars, because while Aus
tria and Russia were at odds their
German and French allies were agreed
in holding them back
The World War came only when the
great powers themselves were hope
leSsly divided. Then old-fashioned
diplomacy failed. Had France and
Italy been similarly divided in the
recent crisis, then the machinery of
Geneva would have been useless and
conflict could not have been averted.
So far the League has been effective
only when great powers have been
in agreement. 1t could do nothing in
the Manchurian incident because
Japan was ready to fight rather than
withdraw. 1t could do nothing in
the Disarmament Conference because
Germany was resolved to have parity
or quit. It could do nothing in the
Economic Conference because the
United States set its domestic re-
covery program above all international
considerations.
Napoleonic Era Recalled.
Put simply, the fact is that the rise
of national socialism in Germany, by
arousing the fears of the French. the
British, the Italians and the Soviets,
has restored something like concert
Of Europe. These four great powers
are now drawn together by the same
kind of common peril which united
Prussia, Russia, Austria and Great
Britain in the Napoleonic era. AS
this process of association develops
the smaller states, which have been
able to exploit the differences between
the larger to their own profit, have
seen their situation growing worse
and have endeavored to arrest the
process.
The recent crisis was, not impossi-
bly,, the last stand of the Little En-
tente. 1t has by its tactics aroused
the enduring disapproval of Great
Britain and the resentment of Italy.
France has found herself at the mercy
of her smaller allies who have been
ready and willing to plunge her into
a clash with Italy and quarrel with
Britain to serve their own ends.
What Benes, speaking for the Little
Entente at Geneva, actually attempted
to do was to make France the satel-
lite of the Danubian alliance, and
while the French paid lip service to
their political commitments, their
anger was not concealed.
Today all signs point to an early
settlement of Franco-Italian differ
ences and to close Franco Italian CO.
operation in the face OF the common
peril inherent in German plans in the
Danubian Basin. British and Soviet
association with this Latin combina-
ton is already assured. What Musso-
lini attempted to bring about at the
moment Hitler seized power has thus
become possible at last. although two
years ago France resisted 1t out of def
erence to her Polish and Little Entente
alliances.
Problem Still Acute.
Beyond question Germany will be
invited to enter this new concert Of
Europe and equally surely Geneva will
he used as the instrument Of this part
nership. Whether Germany will come
in or stay out Is still debatable. Ger
tainly she will insist upon concessions
in the matter of armaments. If. more
over, the other four great powers can
continue to stand together Germany
will either be forced in or isolated.
and, in the latter case. she will GER
tainly try to construct q Danubian
system Of her own.
The face-saving formula ultimately
adopted at Geneva does not in the
least change the basic causes of war
in Central Europe. The Austrian
problem remains as acute as ever. The
Hungarian determination to recover its
lost Magyar populations is unshaken.
The tension In the Danubian Basin
created by the Yugoslav tactics has
added new political unrest and fur
ther economic disorder Conditions are
worse-not better, and the real profit
of the affair will probably 60 to the
Germans who, once they are done with
the Saar affair, will be free to resume
operations on the Danube.
So long as the great powers stand
together there will be no danger of any
war in Europe. So long
as France, Italy, the Soviets and
Great Britain stand together against