Evening star., 1934-02-04

scientists look at weather in long
range manner. They deal very largely
in long averages. Geologic periods
are more in their line than mere
cycles Of Cathay. There may, indeed.
IS Mr.. Kincer's statistics prove, be
spells Of warm weather, but cold
spells may be depended upon to recur,
stabilizing the average over a long
swing. A period of 20 years or even
q century means little to your deep
dyed scientist whose familiars are
parsecs and pleistocenes and light
years.
What this new report does establish
is that the man who says he remem-
bers that such and such stream was
frozen solid all Winter, that his father
cut ice each Winter on the pond, and
that there was always at least three
weeks of good sleighing before Christ
mas, whereas now the ground Is only
covered by slush once or twice q sea-
son and the streams and ponds will
not so much as hold a skater, Is cor
rect and his mind has not been un-
dermined by senile decay nor his
memory tricked by q myth. And that
Is so much gained.
Mean Annual Temperatures Higher.
From the immediate point of view,
It might be assumed that the country
Is in the midst Of a period Of warm
cycles, punctuated by very cold snaps.
These cold snaps are Of short dura-
ton. but cold enough to drag the
average down. For instance, the
Winter of 1917-18 was much colder
than normal and it came in this
warm cycle Of the last 81 years when
the overwhelming majority Of the
years were warmer than normal. That
was the war year. and not a few
Americans will remember how trans
portation was almost paralyzed and
the keenest hardships were suffered.
Furthermore, in February, 1888,
month included in the warm cycle,
there was recorded In the Yellowstone
National Park the lowest temperature
ever read for the continental United
States-66 degrees below zero.
Mean annual temperatures deter
mine climate from the point Of view
Of crop growth and generally habit
ability. 1t Is asserted, for example,
that should the mean annual tenn.
perature Of New England move down.
ward only degrees for a period of SO
years, the region would no longer be
habitable. There may be wide fluc-
tuations Of temperature from week
to week or day to day, but it is the
fundamental alteration in the mean,
the average for an entire year, which
Is the determining factor. A study
OF some representative mean annual
| Temperatures shows the slow changes
and does show that American climate
has grown warmer.
The mean annual temperature Of
Washington for 1886 was 5l.4 and for
1882 1t was 81. The oldest records
are for New Haven. The mean for
1850 was 49.7 and for 1882 522. Phil
adelphie records begin at 1925 with
a mean annual Of 529 and in 1882
showed 57.1. Others are st. Paul,
Mimi, for 1886, 43 and for 1892, 44.s;
St. Louis, Mo-, for 1886, 53.2 and for
1882, 57.4; Winnipeg, Canada, s2.8 for
1873 snd 359 for 1892.
There Is no reason to think that
the trend toward warmer weather in
! the United States will continue indefi-
nitely and that New York and Cleve-
land will become tropical cities. Long
range experience indicates that there
will oe swing back and that some
future generations Of Americans will
tell rising generations about how hot
Il used to be-