Evening star., 1934-06-03
JAPANESE.SOVIET WAR
SEEN LESS LIKELY NOW
Causes for Conflict Remain, but Russia S
Gains Make, Toxic Attack Not
Worth Effort, Observer Says

1t seems only logical to Moscow to
suppose that a further consolidation
of Japanese security" will ensue,
either southwark to Peiping, Tientsin
and Shantung. or north toward the
Amur and maritime provinces of the
U. S. S. R.
Further evidence that this is the
case, it is argued in Moscow, is pro-
vided by the unprecedented efforts
Japan is now making to increase its
military and naval strength. jap
anese armament and munition plants
are working feverishly day and night,
so are civilian" factories, with the
result that unemployment is at a
minimum.
Trade Gives Answer.
japanese export and import sta
tistics give the answer. Goods of all
kinds are being exported, at prices
defying competition, to all parts OF
the world. to purchase the raw ma
terials of war-iron, copper, nickel,
molybdenum. cotton and nitrates.
From Chile, where japanese competi-
tion has made serious inroads upon
American and British trade, there
are being bought not only nitrates
but wheat and beef. which hereto
fore have not formed part of the
regular food supply of Japan, but
which lend themselves admirably to
the preparation of hardtack and iron
rations for use in war. The nature
of Japanese imports, like those OF
Germany, casts an unmistakable
shadow Of coming events.
Soviet fears that the next step in
japanese lmperialist aggression" as
Moscow calls it. will be directed
against Soviet territory have been
strengthened by the announced pro-
gram of railroad construction in
Northern Manchuria, which aims no
fewer than five new lines at the most
vulnerable points of Soviet territory.
Strategic Lines.
On the map these lines look like a
hand facing northward, the thumb
pointing at Manchouli, the junction
station of the Transsiberian Railroad
with the Chinese Eastern. Two fin
gers run up to the Amur River facing
OldsON OAAC t1l1l0 POAllIo
rectly to Khabarovsk, while the fourth
runs due north. parallel to the Soviet
frontier opposite Vladivostok.
Military speakers at the congress
of the Communist party in Moscow
last January said all these lines were
10 per cent strategic and only 30
per cent economic in character and
purpose" They would facilitate the
cutting of the Transsiberian Rail-
road paralyze Soviet communications
in the center of the front" and.
simultaneously. permit an overwhelm-
ing force to be hurled against the
maritime provinces. Further, say
Soviet war experts, the japanese have
built or are building a new network
of lines on the Korean and Man
churian coast, whose prime object
cannot be other than the movement
of troops northward.
Soviet nerves have been kept on
edge by the arrest or ill-treatment Of
Soviet nationals employed by the Chi
nese Eastern Railroad and by the
persistent surveillance Of Soviet ter
ritory. not frontiers alone. by jap
anese planes. Early last Winter the
activities of Japanese spies on Soviet
territory led the Soviet high COM
mand to believe an attack in the
Spring was inevitable. 1t is. how
ever, only fair to add that both spy
ing and surveillance have diminished
considerably in recent months and
that not only the civil but the mill
tary authorities in Moscow consider
the danger of war has diminished, at
least for the time.
Duranty Observations.
For my part I consider that Mr..
Saito, who spoke with assurance and
frankness uncommon to a diplomat,
has demonstrated that war between
Japan and the U. S. S. r. is less
probable than generally supposed,
without however really invalidating
the arguments proffered in Moscow.
That sounds somewhat contradictory,
but the explanation. believe, lies in
the fact that Soviet strength, not
only in the Far East but as a world
power, and more particularly Soviet
industrial strength for the production
Of armaments and munitions, has so
greatly increased in the last two years
as to make japanese attack not worth
the candle.
1t is no longer a question of rapid
and comparatively easy campaign to
win the mineral and fishing resources
of Soviet Siberia, but of a long and
bloody war in the most arduous con-
ditions of climate and terrain, not to
mention the danger of Soviet planes,
whose numbers and efficiency the
Japanese know well, raining incen-
diary bombs upon the densely-popu-
lated cities of Japan, which are built
almost wholly of wood and paper.
Preventive" War
The theory that Japan might need