Evening star., 1934-07-29

has had little effect on employment,
the increase due TO shortening hours
being about Offset by reduced bust
nesses due TO increased costs. The
point is that neither this writer nor
any official in washington has any
Justification for dogmatie assertions
about the results OF the ~ r. A.
The figures indicate that since
March, 1898, England's rate of prog
ress toward recovery has been much
greater than ours. England's policy
has been TO hold wages down, reduce
Government expenditures and ball
ance the budget. She has no A. A. A.,
no N. r. A. and no p. w. A. Italy
has likewise m de, progress. Her policy
has been to reduce relative wages,
restrict profits. increase agricultural
production and maintain the gold
standard. Our policy has been 10 re-
ducc production, force wage increases.
force q price rise, destroy monetary
stability. squRnder revenue and un-
balance the budget.
Three Countries Emerging.
All three Of these countries are
emerging from depression. To assert
that our recovery is due to n harraEe
of try-anything- experiments Is
intellectually unjustihed. The only
safe conclusion from the evidence Is
that when recovery once starts moth
ing can stop 1t. Here, as everywhere
else, recovery Is on the way, not be-
cause of the new deal, but because
Of the old economics.
II Ia nnf Faraauaru 10 nYotn Nt.n A..u
and dry statistics Of bank deposits,
car loadings, electric power produced,
wage payments, price levels and the
other indices Of business activity.
They all are generally favorable,
| although at the moment our produce
tion index is receding slightly. Even
the capital goods industries. held back
by investment timidity and N. r. A.
costs, are showing signs of revival.
You can see the returning prosper
ity, without bothering with curves and
graphs, In the increased attendance
at ball games, the larger crowds In
the railway stations, the revival Of
the beauty shops, the springing up Of
new gas stations, the greater crowds
at the bathing beaches. the resuscita-
ton Of country clubs. the increase In
advertising In the periodicals-and the
growing impatience Of the country
with the policy of experimentation.
Trying to force recovery by statute
Is like standing up In a sailboat and
blowing on the sails. The speed OF
the boat Is determined by forces out
side 1t. II the winds happen to be
blowing toward the shore blowing on
the sail may give the passengers the
impression that the personal blow
Ing is moving the boat. A few pas
sengers may observe that other boats
are making better time. A few pas
sengerS may have the courage to warn
the captain that he is blowing so hard
he Is rocking the boat and can no
longer see where the vessel Is headed
A boat so navigated In the end NAV
be the last one to reach the harbor,
and It may be pretty badly dashed
against the rocks when 1t does land.
Process Is ResistIess.
Fortunately, the recovery process Il
resistless, like the tides, and the arhi-
trary interference OF auto -intoxicated
legislators cannot stop 1t. The pro-
found fears Of thoughtful men as 10
the future Of the nation are hardly
Justified. They are making the same
error the Government has been max
Ing, the one thinking that by weird
lot Of manipulations II can force re-
.overy. the other thinking that a series
OF legislative gaucheries can stop re-
covery.
There Is widespread fear that the
failure of artificial recovery making
Will lead, In the rather hard Winter
ahead, to further outpouring OF
money, followed by violent imitation
and financial chaos. This Is most un-
likely. In the race between recovery
and further experiments, this writer
puts his bet on recovery. His entry
Is guided by all history and all the
known facts Of economics. The other
entry has only unsupported expert
ment to pilot 1t. Recovery viii be un-
der the wire before experimentation
can untangle its legs from the harness.