The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1934-02-01
EXPERTS ARE AT ODDS ON SHOWS AND OTHER
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF YEsTERYEAR
Some Point to Short Legs of Childhood In Explanation
Remembered Depths But One Specialist Supports
Grandfather's View on Moderation

cllmaXed, after the passing of one
century, by the warmest winter Of
record-that of 1931-1932. Going back
to earlier days l find that, for the
winters in the period from 1854 to
1873, seventy-five per cent were cold
er than normal, and that 1856 was
the coolest winter recorded in one
hundred years"
In this manner DR.. Kincer has
grouped two series of winters-the
cold ones of grandfather's time and
the mild ones of our day.
Data Still Needed
But the expert is emphatic in stat
ing that it is still impossible for any
one to make a real long range fore
cast of cold or mild winters. He does
not know where the present trend will
lead, because there is not sufficient
data available to chart all the winters
for thousands of years to see if some
definite alternating tendency exists.
He does know, however, that warm
cycle existed in 1920 and ended in
1910, after which it swung down thru
long series of cold winters until
1905.
From then on the cycle has been
moving upward with milder winters,
| apparently reaching it's peak in 1882.
1t may now be descending toward the
end of the cycle, which, if of the same
length as the preceding cold cycle,
| will appear in 1865. We may be due
to have mild winters until that year,
and be in the midst of a cold cycle at
the end of the century-the year 1000.
If these cycles are a part of long
existing regularity of cold and mild
winters, covering periods of sixty
years, then it is likely that the old
timers are correct about the winters
of their childhood being long and
cold.
Sees Drought Far Ahead
Other eminent scientists also are
working on the question of weather
| periods and occurrences. H. w.
Clough, former Weather Bureau re-
search worker, speaking recently be-
fore the American Association for the
| Advancement of Science, in Boston,
warned that a dry-weather cycle may
reach this country toward the end of
the century.
According to ancient and Biblical
history and records, Mr.. Clough stat
ed, at that time four separate weather
cycles will appear simultaneously.
These cycles are believed to arrive
every 81, SO, 300 and 1,40O years.
DR.. Charles G. Abbott, head of the
Smithsonian Institution, and H. H.
Clayton, one-time head of the Argen-
tine weather services, both are firm
believers in recurring weather cycles,
due in most part to the control ex-
erted by the suns radiation.
The position Of the United States
Weather Bureau is one of caution. 1t
is charged by law with the duty of is
suing weather forecasts and warnings
and these must be made as accurate
as it is humanely possible to do so.
The bureau, therefore, hesitates to ap-
ply untried weather cycles which while
apparent, may not exist with sufficient
regularity back into the ages. The
fact is that the stanchest supporters
of long-range weather forecasting
from such cycles, will not definitely
commit himself to forecast even for
the remainder of 1884.
Colder Trend Due
Since it is apparent that the trend
of our winters is toward a milder sea-
sonal average, it must follow that an
opposite and colder trend will be due
in the years to come. Whether we will
have thirty more years with mild win
tiers is so much guess work, for we
can look at the tendency of the curve
to remain above normal, but we have
no assurance that it will stay so. Your
child, 60 years hence, may say with a
bit of cynical contempt: "Why, when
l was boy we seldom saw snow, and
the grass was green all the time"
A normal Baltimore winter is Meth
err CLIMATE nightmare nor frigid
orgy of storms and cold waves, but a
season of rather mild temperatures.
The great billiards that came in the
good old days" of a below-normal
weather cycle really were exceptions
to the rule.
Hard winters appeared in 1857,
1923, 1843, 1849, 1888 and 1891, with
the worst blizzard of record striking
Baltimore in February, 1899 Within
two days thirty inches of snow, the
greatest fall known here, covered the
city. Huge drifts were everywhere,
and the thermometer dropped to 7 de-
grees below zero; in Washington it
reached Is below, and was IS below
in Laurel. The winter of 1917-1918
also brought zero temperatures to
Baltimore.
The Coolest Month
January ic RaItipoora,c oo1Joc+