Evening star., 1934-07-15
Farmers Temporarily Hurt,
but Higher Prices Will
End Old Troubles.
NORMAL 1895 CARRYOVER
OF WHEAT IS FORECAST
Trading Interest Expected to
Pass From Stocks to Staples.
Brokers Prepare.
BY HARRY JLER,
President. Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc

Il.
NEW YORK. July 14-Three years
ago bewildered agricultural COM
munty was struggling under burden
of the largest wheat Surplus in history.
Not only the farming populace, but
the entire Nation suffered under the
burden. which was one OF the impor-
tant contributing factors IL the de-
preston. 1t seemed humanity impOs-
siGle to bring the surplus down to
normal proportions.
Today, the world is GigeSting the
most sensational Government crop re-
port in AZ years, which uiscloSeS that
nature. in the form of killing
drought, has adjusted this unbalanced
wheat picture, and history will record
1884 as the year of the vanishing
wheat surplus. The Government esti-
mate of 484. .00G 900 0-buShsl crop in
dicates a production approximately
lis 600, 900 bushels short of domestic
needs. The outlook now is for q
normal carry-over of about 100, 0,000-
900 bushels on July /, 1885. The
current short crop will mean tempo
rary hardship for farmers whose crops
have been ruined. but considerably
higher prices fer those who have gram
to harvest. The readjustment of sup
ply and demand means better prices
ahead for the farmers because the i'm
proved statistical picture will bring
many to the support of the grain
markets on any reactions.
Affects All Business.
Furthermore. we must not disre-
gard the extremely important psyche
logical influence of rising grain prices
and normal Carry-over on general
business sentiment. Wheat and cot
ton are "bell-wether" commodities,
and act as leaders for host of less
important domestic commodities,
most of which are not even traded
on organized exchanges. An example
may be cited in the manner in which
United States Steel acts as leader of
the stock market. Professional trad
ers watch Steel for an indication of
the general market trend.
In the same manner, commodity
dealers. who trade in produce aggre-
eating in value many times that of
the combined wheat and cotton crops,
watch those markets carefully,
Drought conditions also have been
working to correct the world wheat
statistical picture. In Europe. reduc-
tionS of from 20 to SO per cent are
reported in the leading grain -produc-
ing nations.
One OF the most notable crop fail
ureS of the year may be observed in
rye. The rye crop in the United States
has been estimated at 1900 900 bush
els. Last year. the United States
consumed about 100000 bushels.
Last years crop also was a failure,
with total production of about 81
100000 bushels. and We found it
necessary to import millions of BUSH
els of rye from Poland. This year,
Poland also reports smaller crop.
Nation Faces No Famine.
However, in reading reports Of
short crops, We must remember that
this country faces no famine or hun
ger. Supplies have been bountiful.
and the vanishing surpluses are mere
ly bringing us back to normality.
Another sensational Government
crop estimate. made public last Mon
day. reported July cotton acreage at
28.o24 900 acres, or l 900 900 acres less
than the cotton trade had estimated
privately. On the floor of the New
York Cotton Exchange. trading was
halted for 20 minutes to receive the
report. At II SIS IN a gong signaled
the halt OF trading. At noon. the news
was received from Washington, and
the fgures were posted on a huge
blackboard. A mighty roar came from
the throatS of hundreds of brokers as
the bullish import of the figures was
noted. AT 1915. the gong was sounded
tor the reopening OF trading. and the
market Immediately spurted higher
and kept moving almost straight up
for a couple OF days.
The small cotton acreage assumes
great Importance when considered
with the news that, in Texas, where
a third OF the United States cotton
crop Is growing. a record breaking
drought has caused considerable dam
age to the growing crop East OF the
Mississippi in some sections the
growing crop is currently narrassed
by wet weather which makes ideal
breeding opportunities for the boil
Weevil
CCopyright 1884. bv North American
Newspaper Alliance IncJ