The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1934-09-19
fact is that the

per cent in July
ana 90 per ceNV Lewis Haney
q year ago.
Automobile production was down
sharply, and apparently under
August, 1888.
Bituminous coal production de-
clined from July and year ago,
due allowance being made for
seasonal conditions.
While Government spending
supported some kinds Of construc-
ton, building permits were only
about the same as last year, and
increased less than usual over
July. Actual residential building
during the month was 6 per cent
under July and is per cent be-
low a year ago.
It is now generally recognized
that the "heavy industries" are
the chief factor in employment.
It is therefore easy to under
stand why August was disap-
pointing to labor. In New York
State factories there was a
slight increase in the number
employed; but this was less
than usual for the month, and
it was entirely due to pre-
strike squirt in clothing trades
in New York city. In PennSyl-
Vania employment actually de-
creased in August. In "a United
States cities, employment in
metal trades declined 1.S per
cent.
On the other hand, department
store sales indicate an August
gain in dollar volume Of retail
trade, and averaged 2 per cent
over a year ago, although there
was a decrease in Boston, and the
volume was unchanged in New
York, Cleveland and st. Louis.
In this connection, we note that
department store retail prices
were about 6 per cent over last
August, so the quantity of goods
sold was probably less. Also
liquor was not sold by stores last
year, and such sales could just
about explain the difference.
There is no doubt, however, that
retail volume was larger than last
year in the Richmond (Va), At
lanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and
San Francisco areas.
Two indexes which are usually
barometric made gains in August.
One is my P-V Line, which rose
from 1O1.6 to about los. The other
is the index of machine tool or
ders, which increased from 1913
per cent of 1925 to Alt per cent.
I think that these barometers
suggest that initiation is actually
becoming more effective. In fact,
this factor partly explains the
August figures, in that it was
working to stimulate trade While
it was retarding the basic indus
tries.
The progress of initiation is be-
ing made through Government
borrowing and spending, which
are more and more taking the
place of real business. The ef-
fectS are slowed up by large
stocks of manufactured goods,
capricious Government regula-
lions, and heavy taxes. But in
flatiOn seems to be creeping in.
Of course, too, the anticipation
of the big strike stimulated some
buying in August.
I conclude that Cd Business
activity was down to new low
for the year, and below a year
ago. It was down close to where
it was when the New Dealers took
over in November, 1892. (Natur-
ally, therefore, even if business
men think that we are ION the
way" they doubt where that
way leadsO 60 Prices and living
costs are up, and so are operate
ing expenses. Thus profits are
tending to decline and laborers
as consumers are hurt.
Some gain in activity seems
about to occur, though it is
doubtful if this will fully equal
normal seasonal proportions. Cd
The fall season has been delayed
ca Bountiful rains have greatly
relieved farming sections. 90
Government spending and lending
are being stepped up, and PEG
pie are being urged to borrow
now
Over against these, we find in
creasing uncertainty and fear con
corning New Deal expedients
which kill individual planning ano
real business. We find growing
establishment as to the whole
New Deal economic program. We
find Government credit, upor
which the program depends, un
determined and increasingly
Shaky.
1.-THE public" with New Dea
dollars in their pockets, still cllnG
to the hope that the New Dealers
will "do something" Business
men, however, feel that the New
Dealers have about exhausted thel
bag Of tricks, and must either take
business over or put buSinSs bach
on q buSinSS basis.