Evening star., 1934-02-11

know of France regard this idea
Of restoration as the least likely.
The Due de Guise means nothing
in personal prestige. More likely are
military dictatorship and French
Fascism. If that happens. the last
bulwark Of individual liberty in Eu-
rope will be broken and much will
be lost in the charm and ease of life
which are so good in France and so
impossible now in Germany.
Germany is watching this situation
with lynx eyes. So also is Italy. Both
those countries and both leaders of
those countries know that anything
like revolution in France would be
a signal for action. Not necessarily
war. No one wants war in Europe
today But they want revisions and
readjustments which may lead to war.
Would Become Aggressive.
German will power. Germany's de-
mand for equality, Its claim to in
f1uence and authority far beyond its
own boundaries, would become very
aggressive if Frances will power were
weakened by civil strife and internal
confusion. That. above all, is why
this situation in France Is enormously
dangerous.
The most brilliant and thoughtful
Of French writer's, like Pierre Mile
and Pertinax. believe, according to re-
cent utterances. that France has al
ready given away her case by yielding
to international sentiment and espe-
cially to English and italian pressure.
They believe Germany has rearmed.
They believe recent French govern
ments-there have been SO many in
the last few yearS-have surrendered
step by step to the growing advance
of German aggressiveness. They
Withdrew from the Rhine before the
date set. They admitted Germany's
claim to equality of arms. Their last
pretense Of security has been pit
fall, clinging to policy Of control
which, these writer's maintain, would
be enforced only in France and would
certainly be evaded by Germany.
do not agree with these views, but
report them, knowing that they ex-
press the great body of French opin-
ion. The truth is that the majority
of French people are convinced, and
nothing will shake their belief, that
a new war with Germany Is inevitable
and that only the date is uncertain.
That fact and that fear are behind
a good deal of the present situation
Among those crowds of young men
who chased Deputies through the
streets of Paris there were many who
hate these politicians not only be-
cause of their corruption, but because
of their failure to give security to
France
Fear National Disintegration.
In French public opinion as a whole
there is a growing belief that con-
tinuance of weak Socialist or semi
Socialist governments would lead to a
moral disintegration of France similar
to that which led to defeat at Sedan
in 1870. when German soldiers
marched into the heart of Paris.
They want strong national gov
ernment. They want leadership in
which they have faith. They want
efficiency, discipline and national
unity. because of the menace of the
German nation, which has all those
qualities and all that strength.
I am one Of those who believe a
strong France is the best safeguard
to European peace, though not for
the same reasons I have quoted. A
demoralized and distintegrated France
would undoubtedly result in a more
aggressive spirit by Germany and
movements which would make peace
hang by very slender threads. On
the other hand there is not much
comfort in the thought of French
Fascism flinging challenges to Ger
many and increasing military strength
for an inevitable war.
There is an alternative which may
be taken by this new national govern
ment if it has time and power. There
is only one way to avoid that next
war. 1t is for France to make friends
with Germany and bury the old
hatchet.
Strong Government Needed.
Only very strong French Govern
ment having the complete confidence
of the nation and utterly beyond sus-
picion as to honesty and honor could
adopt such policy, which might be
accepted with enthusiasm by Ger
many. That sounds fantastic and In
most minds demands a miracle. Yet
have seen such miracles, and one
was the English entente cordiale with
France very shortly after Fashoda,
when England and France were not
far from war with each other. 1t
happened after France and England
had fought each other on and off for
thousand years.
There is still time to avoid that So
called inevitable war. Just now the
rank and file of the Nazi movement
are not out for war. Germany has
too many internal troubles to solve
before she looks beyond her own from
tiers with bellicose designs.
When France swings to the right
as 1t is certain to do, Europe will be
faced with the immediate question:
Is war then going to happen by inten-
sive preparation on all sides2 It is
enormously to be hoped there will
be a government strong and wise
enough to arrange peace pact d.
rectly with Germany, as Poland has
done.
Trouble Is Not Over.
The troubles which broke into riot
ing are by no means over. The parties
of the Left and anarchical elements
in Paris will not stay quiet as long
as they have a chance of appealing
to passion. and they still have that
chance, or think they have. They will
be infuriated if Doumergue tries to
alter the constitution by limiting the
powers or by dissolution of Parlia-
ment, as it Is likely he will do If
trouble continues.
I look for something like a die
tatorship ruling France by DEGREES.
If further rioting and outbreaks occur
on a serious scale, it is probable
Doumergue will declare martial law
and call certain classes to the colors
It was by that means BRAND broke
the general strike before the war.
Here. then, is the analysis of the
situation in France today. No one
should dare prophesy what will hap
pen In the next few months. In
u~o MA az IN ofher countries there