Evening star., 1934-09-14
WEATHER THEORY
TO Be TRIED HERE
Secretary Wallace Approves
Experiment by Long,
Range Forecaster.
CONTINUED From First Page.)

open mind" on the long disputed
question of long-range forecasting.
The problem is quite complicated"
he said, and requires long study. Un-
fortunately, he explained, lack of
funds has limited the extent Of
Federal research. During previous
regimes the Weather Bureau has
shown a disposition to await further
proof of long distance forecast theor-
les before embarking on them.
Secretary Wallace said that Page
sometime ago read paper on his
studies before the Iowa Academy OF
Science. He pointed to a copy of the
treatise on his desk, but declined to
reveal details of its contents.
II have known Page about 6 years."
the Secretary said. 'He is graduate
of Drake University, where he majored
in physics. He has made an in
teresting study of the relation of plane
tary movements to the weather In the.
Iowa area, covering the last SO years.
He seems to have found a definite trend
for that section of the country. What
holds good for Iowa, however, may
not be true for some other place.
Chances One in Ten.
.I think, personally, there is about
one chance in ten that Page may
discover something of real value in
long-range forecasting. I am going
to give him the opportunity of proving
or disproving his theories, as think
the weather and crop problems are
important enough to justify taking the
chance"
According to reports from Iowa, Page
In 1891 began checking scientifically
"the superstitionS, apparently old as
the race, that the phases of the moon
and the planets affected farming con-
ditions" He began by studying Des
Moines temperatures and moon and
planet positions for each day during
the period from January l. 1879, to
December 81, 1928.
One of the interesting facts he dis
covered was that temperatures were
lower when the new moon shone tnan
under q full moon. A new moon IS
between the earth and the sun, while
a full moon, he pointed out, is on
the opposite side of the earth from
the sun.
When either of the two planets
closer to the sun than the earth
Mercury and Venus-came between
the earth and the sun, lower tenn
perature was noted. On the other
hand, a planet on the opposite side OF
the sun from the earth apparently
made for warmer temperature.
Among researches which might con-
tribute to the solution of long-range
predicting problems, Gregg said, are
those being conducted at La Jolla,
Calf, by the Scripps Oceanograph-
ical Institute. The institute Is study
ing marine life, climate, ocean cur
rents, salinity, temperatures, etc.
Gain Not Objective.
"This institute" the weather chief
commented, sis approaching the prob
lem from the proper point of view
without thought of monetary gain or
publicity. It is the view of many that
accurate measurement Of energy |
stored in the oceans would be an |
index to weather. conditions, that the |
oceans must have an effect on conti- |
mental areas.
.The bureau hopes to study long
range forecasting through correla-
tions between different pressures in
various parts of the world and their
effect on weather in other parts.
THE British have had some de-
gree of success In their studies Of
monSoonS.
'Then, there are long periods Of
fluctuations in precipitation and tenn
peraturess There are so-called cycles
Studies along this line have been
prompted by this years drought. The
records show long-period swings.
We are studying these trends with the
hope of finding something of value
in the cycles. So far the trends have
been found to be irregular as to
period and location"
Chief Gregg said the bureau does
not expect much to result from any
single line of research, but it hopes
there may be relationships, however
slight, that viii aid in tackliny the
whole problem.
For example," he said, eve may
find some relation between temper
atures in the West and temperatures
of the ocean-but there are certain
breakdowns, caused, perhaps, by other
influences, like solar radiation. The
problem is so complicated by varying
factors that it is difficult to arrive at
q general conclusion.
'The planetary study is Just one of
many avenues of approach that are
being followed. Tree rings discovered
in petrified trunks of Arizona are an
other source of research.
I'VE are approaching the whole
problem of long-range forecasting
with an open mind. We have dis
covered nothing useful thus far, but
we intend to carry on in the hope
that further research will prove
fruitful"