Evening star., 1934-04-01

not quite as funny as 1t ought to be,
for the fact is that Americans and
Europeans do come out here for pc
RODS of few hours or days and re-
turn to write and lecture on the
problems of the Orient, just as Euro
peans land in New York, lunch at
the Ritz, see Hollywood picture. read
about a lynching and return to en-
tighten their fellow countrymen on
the life and habits of America
In four days ! have talked with taxi
drivers. hotel proprietors, railroad
employees, shop girls. newspaper re-
porters, Americans who have lived
here and done business with the jap
anese for many years. and last. but
not least with representatives OF the
japanese foreign office. l asked each
and all of them when the war with
Russia will start. and am now pre-
pared to give their collective answer.
When Will War Start?
When 1 left the United States the
newspapers were full Of stories to the
effect that hostilities would break
loose this Spring. May was gen.
orally assigned as the probable date.
The ship which carried me across the
Pacific rode through some fairly
rough weather in wonderful style, due
partly to the fact that she was loaded
full of war materials. There is no
doubt that war supplies are being ac-
cumulated on both sides and that the
makings of a fine bonfire exist along
the borders of what used to be Man
churia and is now Manchukuo.
Will the bonfire be touched off this
Spring? Will a conflict occur here
which might spread until 1t involved
Europe, and even the United States?
AS an expert I propose to answer
those questions in the accepted ex-
pert fashion. VIZ. with the liberal use
of such hallowed and indispensable
phrases as 1T seems to me" Il am
reliably informed" There is a grow
ing feeling in certain quarters" On
the other hand" etc.
Without these handy phrases no
expert could function. They are par
ticularly necessary to me because this
report of mine is being sent back to
America by mail and will not ap-
pear until some weeks after it is
written.
Once. in the boom period following
the World War, / wrote an interview
with a famods economist on pros
perity and prices. He explained SCI
entiflcally just how the high prices
then prevailing would adjust them
selves gradually to lower levels. and
why there would be no crash. The
interview was published in monthly
magazine which had to go to press
several weeks in advance of the date
Of issue.
No magazine feature could possibly
have been more perfectly timed. Our
positive assurance - the professor
and mine-that there would be no
crash, appeared on the newsstands
of everything. Since then have had
a deep-seated terror of long waits be-
tween composition and publication.
Dangers Exist.
The makings of trouble do exist
along an extensive border. There is
a daily. even an hourly, chance OF
some incident" which might start
the shooting. 1t is possible. but am
quite convinced at the moment OF
writing that it is improbable. A war
between Russia and Japan might
come in 1885 or 1886. I do not be-
lieve it is likely to come-as so often
predicted-in the Spring of 1884.
There are number of reasons. In
the first place, neither Russia nor
Japan. though preparing for war. is
actually fully prepared. Russia has
a lot of troops and munitions, includ-
ing several hundred airplanes, in the
trouble zone: but the trouble zone is
a long, long way from Moscow and
the only means of communication is
a single track railway. Russia is
working hard to double-track this
railway, but the task requires more
time.
Japan has ships and men and
munitions, but she lacks one OF the
great essentials for modern warfare,
You can't fly sirplanes or operate
trucks or battleships without gasoline
and oil. Japan produces only about
10 per cent of her peace time petro-
leum requirements.
There is another adverse factor
also. Several times on my travels
during the last few days / have run
into an elderly gentleman who was a
fellow passenger on the ship. His
business is fire insurance; he has been
engaged in it for many years.
Cites Fire Traps.
I asked him: What do you think
of Toxic and Osakabz?" He answered
with a hopeless gesture: LAS an in
surance man they give me the shud-
ders," he said. They would make a
terrible blaze"
Toxic and Yokohama are among the
wonders of the modern world. De-
stroyed by the earthquake of 1928
they have been rebuilt in a decade
Toxic, according to the guide books
being the third largest city in the
world, and according to the Japanese
the second. Much progress has been
made in fireproof construction and in
providing modern fire-flghting ap-
paratus.
But my insurance friend is right
Toxic, Osaka, Kyoto and many lesser
cities would make big bonfire. The
Japanese know it. Until their anti
aircraft defense is much better they
want no Russian wings over their
cities.
These are the practical considera-
tions which make it seem unlikely war
will come this Spring. Underneath
are certain moral factors. There is a
growing paciflst sentiment in Japan
The strong newspapers are against
war. The Emperor and the civil gov
ernment are against it. The military
party which was so noisy and self
assertive few months ago has beer
considerably qQieted. United States
recognition of Russia Is regarded by
many thoughtful people as having
been an influence. Japan knows wal
is costly. She has in Manchukuo ar
outlet for her energies and ambitions
for long time to come. She Is con-
siderably less cocky than she was q
while back.
As for Russia, cannot speak But