The Washington times., 1934-10-18

per cent lower
than a year sSS
ago. Lewis HAney
In Delaware,
there were small gains, but these
were less than usual for the sea-
son.
In New York State, I find that
factory employment usually in
creases more than 2 per cent IN
September. Last month, however,
the increase was only 1.3 per cent
and pay rolls gained only o.4 per
cent.
In New York, such increases as
occurred were chiefly in the cloth
ing industry and in canning. Out
side New York city, the changes
were much mixed.
New York factories employed
only 71.3 per cent as many work
ers as they averaged during the
years 1925.'27, which compares
with 69.7 per cent year ago.
In general, it is notable that
the working hours were sharply
reduced in September, SO that
the money earned by factory
workers declined more than the
number employed.
While the textile strike at.
fected the figures, the chief fac
cor in the less favorable employ.
ment data was the continued
backwardness of the capital
goods industries, such as iron
and steel and metals.
It must be said that in May
the upsurge in employment caused
by inflationary stimulants and
NRA code, was checked, and since
then the trend has been down
ward.
Naturally department store
sales were affected, and in Sep
TENDER were only 76 per cent of
the average for 1923-25. This COM
pares with 70 per cent in August.
It Is about per cent over a year
ago, which is not much, consider
ing the higher prices and the in
PRODUCTION of liquor.
The sales in Boston, New York,
and Philadelphia were actually be-
low a year ago. But the large
gains in the Dallas, Kansas City,
st. Louis and Atlanta districts,
pulled the average up.
Clearly Government spending in
rural sections Is the main support.
Iron and steel production
Slumped in September, and aver
aged only about % per cent of
capacity. This means a rate Of
production about 81 per cent of
normal" It is about the same as
in April-May. 1888.
My own estimates indicate that
steel shipments fell less than the
production, and that stocks Of
steel on the hands of the pro.
ducers were thus reduced to nor
NAL.
On the whole, however, I esti-
mate that stocks Of manufactured
goods are quite large - probably
q little above a year ago. We
know that stocks of zinc and lead
accumulated last month.
Certainly railway freight traf-
fic, regarded as an index Of ship
mentS, fell sharply.
Apparently building activity
remains q very weak spot.
Building permits in September
fell off sharply. They were 80
per cent below a year ago and
only about IL per cent Of the
average for the years 1925.
This is the lowest on record
for the month Of September.
Again, however, we find ex.
ceptions in agricultural sections
where Government funds are
being distributed.
Machine tool orders, widely re-
garded as a barometer, dropped
9 per cent in September, which
is more than usual. This reflects
hesitation in the capital goods
industries.
Despite all the evidence Of a
decline in industrial activity last
month, my P.V line rose a little
further. From 10 in August it
climbed to about 112 (prelimi-
nary). This rise results from the
fact that prices in general held
up better than industrial volume.
I think that it reflects Cd
liquidation of the early summer
squirt, and 90 creeping initiation.
It probably anticipates some in
crease in business activity, signs
of which have begun to appear
in october.