The Washington times., 1934-12-13

have begun to 81
come in. S
The first to s,.A $$ $$$S
arrive were the sS:SS
iron and steel
production fig
ureS. AS eX- A
ptcted, these 4
showed a rise. ~
The verage - ,%<<.%S'N--
daily output of LEWIS nancy
steel ingots jumped from 31.3 per
cent of normal in october to
38.8 per cent. Pig iron produc-
ton increased from 318 per cent
to 32.5 per cent of normal.
These figures certainly indicate
q gain in production activity, and
the fact that steel production is
relatively larger than pig iron
production is usually favorable
symptom.
Next we got the shipments by
the United States Steel Corpora
ton in November. These also
were larger, although November
shipments have been below OcUo-
ber's for several years.
But here comes the first queS-
ton. The steel corporations
shipments did not gain as much
as the total production of steel.
Therefore, if the big company is
representative of the industry,
the tendency was to make
more steel than was shipped.
That would mean some ten
dency toward accumulation of
stocks of steel in producers
hands. This unfavOrable Sug-
gestiOn is emphasized by the fur
ther fact that steel production
has expanded more rapidly
than manufacturing activity in
general-faster than the indi.
Gated current requirements of
the chief Steel-cOnSuming indus
tries.
Speaking of shipments, we next
turn to railway freight traffic
1 estimate that in November,
2,437 900 cars were loaded with
freight, and that the average car
load was about 25.6 tons. This
makes over 62,6O0,000 tons of
freight shipped by rail. The tom
mage in October was 72,100,0OO,
and in November last year 63,-
100000.
The decline from October was
perhaps little less than usual
for the season, but not much.
Certainly there has been no indi-
cation of any appreciable upturn
in total railway shipments.
Why is this? Probably part of
the answer is to be found in the
figures of retail trade. In the
long run, goods are shipped for
eventual sale to consumers.
Here we run into a distinctly
disappointing figure. The Fed.
eral Reserve Board has just re-
ported the November sales of
513 large department stores in
247 cities. Their sales, allowing
for seasonal factors, were only
" per cent as large as in 1923.
5. This compares with IA per
cent in October, and 76 per
cent in September.
For some reason, therefore,
retail trade was not as good as
expected in November. Why
was this?
Again we find a partial answer
suggested by the figures on fac
tory employment and payrolls.
The New York State Department
of Labor has reported these for
its territory.
It's figures show that between
mid-October and mid-November,
employment declined IA per cent,
and payrolls dropped IL per
cent. Since employment norm
ally changes little at this time
of year, these declines are prob
ably significant.
The net impression one gets
Is that on the average it is
probable that labOrS' purchaS-
ing power, retail trade, and in
duStrial shipments have not
been expanding recently-at
least not as much as product
ion in the representative iron
and steel industry.
1t seems reasonable to infer
that one or more of the following
policies will be adopted: Cd At
tempts to administer further in
flationary stimulants; CD at
tempts to make work and create
purchasing power by a work re-
lief program; or 90 a turn to
the policy of encouraging volume
by reducing prices and costs, thus
freeing market. and allowing
supply and demand to rule.
Meanwhile, the underlying un-
certainties continue. and despite
cooperation and confidence. the
figures show some lack Of en-
thuSiaSm.