Evening star., 1934-03-18
FRENCH SEE STRUCTURE
OF ALLIANCES CRASHING
Czechoslovakia Joins Group Turning
From France by Seeking German
Non-Aggression Pact.

promises OF territorial revision at the
expense Of the Czechs. In addition,
he has offered both countries material
tariff and trade advantages. For the
moment, at least, he can count upon
both countries as allies.
By contrast, Yugoslavia, like Czecho-
slovakia, is in the very nature Of
things bound to turn to Berlin instead
Of to Rome; for between the Italians
and the Serbs, the Adriatic dispute Is
at once unsettled and insoluble. And,
while there may be some question as
to the willingness of Hitler to come
to terms with Czechoslovakia, which
is now almost at his mercy, there can
be no doubt as to the welcome Yugo-
slavia would receive An alliance
between Belgrade and Berlin, too,
would be a deadly menace to Musso-
lini, since it would be grave threat
to his Hungarian allies.
AS far as one can see, however,
with France and Britain out Of the
reckoning in the Danubian area a
new set Of alliances is likely TO
emerge Italy has already bound
both Hungary and Austria TO her pol
icies. Germany will gather to herself
Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. AS
for Rumania and Bulgaria, today il
seems almost certain that, tempo
rarily at least, Rumania-if the little
entente breaks up-will take the Ital-
ian turning, which would probably
decide Bulgaria to return to the Ger
man orientation. On the other hand,
German influence is great in Buchas
rest and an Italian princess is Queen
Of Sofia.
OF the wisdom or folly Of the
French course-that is, of the policy
of evacuating Central Europe-it is
possible to take different views. As
to the fact that it will involve an
enormous decline in French influence
and prestige, that goes without say
ing. 1t may, however, be argued that,
for time at least, French security
will gain. In Central Europe Ger
many and Italy will be more and
more sharply opposed and Mussolini
will presently have to draw the sword
to defend Austria or agree to the
AnschluSs, which would bring Ger
many to the Brenner and into direct
contact with an assured Yugoslav
ally. And the more completely these
two nations are divided by rivalries,
the safer the situation of France,
equally menaced by the territorial
programs of both.
French Alternative Is War.
BY contrast, it may fairly be ar
gued that in the end Italy must
prove too weak to stand of Germany
without French or British aid: that
Italys system of alliances will COL
lapse; that Austria, as well as
Czechoslovakia, will be swallowed in
a new Mitteleuropa, and that the
Third Reich, having organized and
armed, will then be in a situation to
achieve that settlement with French
which is so often forecast by Hitler
IN his writings. Even here, however,
it must be appreciated that the
French alternative is war of pre-
vention, launched now, precipitated
this year at the latest, while German
armaments are still decisively inferior
to French. And, as l have said be-
fore, it seems unmistakable that the
French public would have no liking
for such an adventure.
II France retires from the Danu-
bian fray. her policy will be mainly
concentrated upon domestic security.
Her energies will be directed toward
increasing her armaments, extending
her frontier fortihcations and shortly
extending the period of service of her
conscripts. She will naturally pay no
heed to any American or British pro-
posals for disarmament which are not
accompanied by promises to defend
her frontiers in case she is attacked
AS result of both German and
French armament activities, there will
be parallel operations in Britain and
Italy. Europe will thus be in for a
new race in armaments.
Thus. while in theory at least a
preventive war might clear the at
mosphere, what now seems more
likely to happen-namely, the crea-
ton Of new systems Of alliances and
an enormous extension in armaments
must insure the permanence of a
dangerous and even explosive condi-
ton on the Continent. The state Of
mind and state of fact which pre-
ceded and explained the World War
will be reproduced.
There remains, too, the problem Of
Russia. Nominally the Russians
might feel free to follow the example
of France and Britain and keep out
of the mess. But it is to be remem-
bered that the ultimate purpose Of
Hitler and his followers has been
and remains to seize vast Russian
areas in the Ukraine as territories
for the settlement of German popula-
tions. Russia, were she powerful now
and not disturbed by the Japanese
danger, would be far more likely than
Italy to be the opponent Of Germany
and the ally and champion Of the
Czechs and the Southern Slavs as
well. But for the present Manchuria
Is always q vulnerable point and
Japan a menace which Germany can
exploit If Russia tries to play o role
on the Danube.
No Clash Of Interests.
Once France has cut her commit
ments in Central Europe, it Is not
impossible that French and British
relations will become closer again
After all. French and Belgian s-sztiers
are the first line Of British defense,
As Germany proceeds with her re-
armament British security will again
be menaced, particularly in the air.
All the conflicts between the French
and the British In the Postwar
period, outside the economic field
have arisen not through any direct
clash of interests of the two coun-
tries, but over a difference in judg-
ment as to the treatment of Germany.
Today the British will not support
the French in defending Austria or
keeping Germany disarmed. They are
oStentatiouSly unconcerned over
frontier revision In the center and
southeast Of Europe. But they are
precisely as sensitive now as ever to
the dangers to themselves Of Ger
man possession of the low countries
or the north Of France. They are
satisfied, however, that for the pres
sent there is no danger in this quar-
ter, unless the French start war Of
prevention. And they also believe