The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1934-04-21
M. E. Tracy
Says

IMMIGRATION has virtually
l. ceased, the birth rate is falling
sharply and for the first time since
this country came into being its cit
les are failing to grow.
Here is one cause for the depres-
sion and one factor which makes
it different from all previous de-
pressions. We are up against
something which goes deeper than
stock manipulation, credit eXpan-
sion or international politics.
We can no longer count on a mil
lion or more new mouths to feed
each year, or 100000 new families to
house.
The steady growth of population,
on which we have depended thus
far, and which has meant SO much
to business, is rapidly fading out
of the picture. If present trends
persist, we shall reach a practically
even balance between births and
deaths within two generations.
That means an entirely new per-
spective for the United States of
America. Its average town or city
can not go on building with the as
surance of a doubled population
within twenty years or so. Its in
duStrial structure can not be tuned
up to a probable increase of from
Is to 20 per cent in the number of
consumers each decade.
The country as a whole is con-
fronted with the problem of settling
down to a replacement basis. 1t
could easily support one thousand
million people, but the signs are
that it will hardly be called upon
to support two hundred million.
IF such a prospect included no
i more than economic readjust-
ment within our own borders, it
would not be at all alarming but it
has a definite bearing on our rela-
tons with the outside world.
While some countries are affected
by a similar trend, others are TAX
ing drastic measures to counteract
it. Though taking vastly different
views of marriage, Communism,
Fascism and Hitlerism find a COM
mon ground in their determination
to raise the birth rate and increase
the population Of their respective
countries.
Experts have estimated that Ger
many will have 100000 people
within fifty years, if not sooner;
that Italy will have 100000; that
Russia will have 200000,0O0; that
Japan will have 1OO,OOo,0O0, and that
Poland will have 100000.
NPTOMISTS jump to the con-
" clusion that this growth
should guarantee us an improved
foreign market, but that was not
true in our own case. The faster
we grew, the more we did for our
selves. Why assume that other
people will not react to the same
stimulus in the same way?
In my Judgment, We would bet
ter give serious thought to the al
tered state of mind which this re-
verSal Of social trends is likely to
develop not only here, but abroad.
Up to this time the very rapidity
of our growth and development has
impressed the world. We have been
regarded as strong, virile and ag-
gressive. When our census begins
to reveal a static condition, as it
surely will if existing tendencies
continue, what are other people
going to think? Of equal impor-
lance what are we going to think?
We have learned not only to count
noses, but to take great pride in it.
We have become very dependent on
the constant increase in tn size of
our cities and towns BooSterism,
as we call it, has been a real fac
tor of strength in our psychology.
1t has taught us to measure the
future by the past, because the past
has always shown growth and ex-
pansion. When we face the neces-
sity of measuring the future by a
static or even declining past, what
will be our reaction?