Evening star., 1934-10-21
YUCOSLAV ORIENTATION
TO REICH in PROSPECT
Assassination of Alexander Weakens
Frances Hold on Balkan State.
Disaster for Italy.

advantage.
More and more, then, the European
situation is approaching point where
the combined strength Of France and
Italy-assuming that they can be COM
bined-will not be sufficient to arrest
German advance down the Danube.
The French system of alliances. which
included Poland and the Little En-
tente has crumbled-the italian, which
included Austria and Hungary, is Wis
IDLY insecure. Thus if German mas
terry of the continent is to be prevented
France and Italy will have to seek
reinforcement from Russia and Great
Britain AS to the former, there is
little question that Moscow is now as
one with Paris over the German issue.
For one of the important features Of
Hitler's program is the seizure of the
Russian Ukraine for German colonial
ton.
On the other hand, the British pol
icy Is obscure and uncertain. The
continental danger, naturally, does
not pass unnoticed in London. Eng
land is ready to perform her duty on
the Rhine. Whether a Labor or a
Tory government succeeds the present
National Coalition, 1t Is unlikely that
Germany will find support across the
channel What is doubtful, however,
is whether the British are ready now
or will be prepared in any useful time
to announce that in new European
war in the Danubian region they will
stand with France against Germany.
Fear War of Prevention.
It is the conviction of most experts
that only a declaration of such de-
termination could arrest German pur-
pose and thus insure a considerable
period of truce-if not of peace. But
it is the instructive fear of perhaps q
majority of Britons that a commit
ment of that kind would encourage
the French, with or without the Ital-
ians, to plunge into a war of preven-
ton. That was why England hung
back in 1914, fatally as most observ-
ers now believe. That Is why she is
hanging back now.
But, in any event, all the region
between the southern frontier of the
Reich and the Aegean now becomes
an area of chaos and turmoil. The
domestic strife in Yugoslavia may lead
the regency to risk an Italian war to
escape a civil conflict. Such a war,
as has been said, would be a heaven
sent opportunity for Hitler. Encour-
aged by the Adriatic situation Hitler
may resume his offensive toward Vi
emma, once the Saar question is set
tied The Little Entente as unit or
the nations which belong to it indi-
Wdually may publicly announce their
shift from the French to the German
camp
With the death of Barthou It Is not
impossible that the last French for
eign minister of the postwar school
may disappear. That school, whose
policy was begun by Millerand, re-
verted to the traditional policy of
Richelieu and MaZarin and sought by
alliances with smaller states to hold
in check the inherently more power
full German Reich. This Millerand
policy was imposed upon the French
by the refusal of both the United
States and Great Britain to honor the
treaty of guarantee which Lloyd
George and Woodrow Wilson gave
Clemenceau. But during all the post
war years the French have been striv-
ing to bring the British into their
system and through Geneva to obtain
a general guarantee of the status quo
of the peace treaties.
Hoped for U. s. Help.
Clemenceau, by contrast, always
reckoned that the security Of France
could be assured only by a direct An
glo-French alliance. He hoped also
for American help, but he counted
upon it less. With the Millerand pol
icy now collapsing it is at least pos
sible that France will go back to the
policy of the Tiger" That would
mean closer Franco-British relations,
common preparation in the air, on
land and on water to defend the
status quo in the west. In such a
combination Italy might be welcomed,
if again it were merely question of
defending the status quo on the Alps
and the Adriatic.
But the British will have to be
even more alarmed than they are to-
day before they go much beyond an
agreement to defend Belgium and
thus cover the French flank against a
German invasion. AS long as Britain
continues to cover Belgium with her
guarantee, however, Germany can do
nothing in the west without risking
a war with Britain. For, now that
the French frontier defenses are fin
ished from Switzerland to Belgium,
the direct road of invasion is barred.
And only in desperation can Hitler
be seen challenging Britain as well as
France under present circumstances.
Italy In Reich's Path.
Italy, then, finds herself today in
the pathway of Germany and threat
ened on her flank and rear by Yugo-
slavia. She can only make terms
with Berlin by sacrificing all Of her
ambitions in the Danubian area. In
all probability she can make no terms
with Belgrade at all. France has
for all practical purposes lost her
hold upon Poland and the Little En-
tente and thus her power and influ-
ence beyond her own frontier have
largely vanished. Germany is con-
fronted by a growing opportunity be-
yond her boundaries and an ever In
creasingly tense crisis at home.
As a consequence the coming Win
ter may witness a Yugoslav-1talian
war accompanied by a German ad-
vance to Vienna and Innsbruck. 1t
may witness Franco-German col
lision over the Saar or it may be
marked by further period of trou-
bled peace, during which Germany
gradually draws to herself the allies
of France and Italy in Central .Eu-
rope, while France and England come
together more closely again and Italy
associates herself with these western
powers. Again, there is patent posi-
bility both of civil war within Yugo-
slavia and upheaval within Germany.
What it is difficult to see, however,
is any prospect whatever of progress
toward peace and order. On the con-
trary that has now become impos-
sible until the fate of Hitler is de-
cided, and then only If the decision
goes against him. For if he can last