Evening star., 1934-11-20
PROSPERITY RIDES
ON BIRTH DECLINE
Cities Having Fewer Chill
dren to Care For, Says U. S.
SocioIogist.
BY THOMAS r. HENRY.

The American city is growing older.
A city population of more and more
old people and fewer and fewer chill
dren is seen by DIR. o. E. Baker, So
ciologist of the Department of Agri-
culture, as a result of his analysis Of
present population trends.
There will be more productive
workers, fewer children to care for,
and this should result in a period of
greater prosperity than has been
known before, DIR. Baker estimates
Pointing out that since 1880 the de-
cline in the birth rate has gone at a
rate Of about 100000 year, he says:
Since the census was taken five
years ago, the number of births has
decreased IS per cent, children under
five years of age have decreased IL
per cent and children from to 10
have decreased per cent. This de-
crease will soon be more rapid. The
decline in numbers of children will
be reflected in decline in the num-
ber Of possible mothers within the
next two decades, and this will result
in still further decline of children,
unless the birthrate rises or the re-
strictions on immigration are relaxed.
Decline to Continue.
"In all probability, the number Of
births will continue to decline, al
though at diminishing rate. But
the population will continue to in
crease for about 10 years. probably 70,
and possibly for 80 years, because of
tho inproo Cir1O hor Of y,aiIdla
and old people-the heritage of the
heavier birthrate and heavier immi-
grafton of the past.
THE population will consist, how
ever, of more and more old people
and probably of fewer and fewer
children. During the next two dec
ades the proportion of people in the
productive age groups, Is to 65 years,
will be higher than heretofore. Other
factors remaining equal, production
should increase for at least another
century and prosperity should exceed
that in the past. The number of
children to support have become few
er and fewer, while time will not yet
have brought the full harvest of the
past"
The city probably will offer greater
and greater opportunities for boys
from the farm. DR.. Baker points out
since there will be less competition
from the native city youth, but he
points out another side of the pic
ture which may have some compli-
Gated relationship to the distress of
the agricultural communities.
Close to $4,000 100000 worth of
human material, he says, has been
contributed by the American farm to
the city during a decade.
During the 192O-9 period, DR..
Baker estimates, approximately 49,
100000 individuals left the farms for
the cities and over 100000 re-
turned, leaving net migration of
about 100000 About go per cent
of it was from the South. The great
majority were under IS years of age.
$1,000 to $500 Cost.
But, says DR.. Baker. the old folks
on the farm had paid for raising
them at an average pre-depreSsion
cost Of from $4,000 to $500. The
cities got the benefit of their labor
NANA4 WCAC dG IllC llClkllLIl
their productive powers without pay
ing a cent for their education, doctor
bills. clothing, etc. This, he estimates,
amounted to contribution from the
farm Of about $4,000, 600 ,000-almost
equal to the value of the entire wheat
crop plus half the cotton crop dur
ing those years.
But that was only q beginning,
says DR.. Baker when the farmer
and bis wife grow old and die" he
says, "the estate is divided among
the children. During the decade
about one-f1fth of the farmers and
their wives died, but one-third of the
children among whom they were dis
tributed had moved to town. Those
who remained on the farm, in many
instances, had to mortgage the land
to the more prosperous brothers and
sisters who lived in the cities. This
amounted to a gross contribution of
about $4,000, 100000, he estimates.