Evening star., 1934-03-11
Uncertain and Irregular
Trend Now Seen in Re-
ports to League.
NATIONS TURN MORE
TO DOMESTIC MARKETS
Geneva Experts Point to Unstable
Currencies, Exchange Controls
and Shifting Gold.
BY ALBIN E. JOHNSON.
Special Dispatch TO The Star.

IL nADA4N Ls JOI1VvDON,
| Special Dispatch to The Star.
GENEVA, Switzerland.-The gen
eral movement toward recovery, evi-
denced during the Summer, Autumn
and early Winter Of 1888 by increased
| industrial activity and decreased un-
employment in a large number Of
| countries, has become uncertain and
irregular" and is giving rise to con.
siderable concern, accordingsto an au-
| thoritative survey Of world conditions
by the economic and financial sections
OF the League OF Nations, which will
be issued shortly.
The favorable development Of trade
and economic conditions in national
markets, paradoxically, has not been
accompanied by improvement in in
ternational trade, detailed statistics
from some so countries, whose re-
ports are submitted to the League,
| indicate. In fact the recovery In Ger
tain countries, domestically, has been
found to be due almost entirely to the
diminution Of their trade inter-
nationally.
With complete figures and reports
available for 1888 and fragmentary
statistics for January and February
Of 1884 at hand League experts have
made some amazing deductions. The
present world crisis cannot be meas
ured by experiences Of former depres-
sions, according to economists who
have studied facts assembled at
Geneva.
Situation Pulling.
For example, the phenomena of
various countries Germany,
Japan, the United States and Can
ada-showing marked Improvement in
production, slackening Of unemploy-
ment and reawakening Of industry,
while international commerce con-
tinues to decline, Is pulling.
Likewise, where in previous crises
fall In prices always brought about
speedy increase in the volume Of
trade, the present depression reveals
that falling prices have been ac-
companied by marked shrinkage in
trade. The total International COM
merce goods exchanged between
countries) in 1888 was 80 per cent LESS
than it was in 1929-quantitatively.
Calculated on a gold-value basis the
decrease has been about 50 per cent
Through q complicated but exact
system Of calculation, statisticians
show that, on the basis Of gold, the
total value Of trade In 1888 was less
than one-thitd of what it was the
year the depression started. Calcu-
lated in deprecated British pounds
sterling it was scarcely one-half.
Even If one takes into consideration
the fact that today the bulk Of in
ternational trade is based upon paper
money and that most international
debts and credits are contracted in
dollars and pounds sterling, the fact
still remains that the value OF world
trade Commerce between more than
so countries) has been cut In half.
Political Obstacles.
Although loath to depart from hard,
cold, statistical facts, the League ex-
perts hazard the opinion that the in
ternational political situation is large
ly to blame for the plight Of interna-
tional trade.
They point out that while in vari-
Gus countries private enterprises
which were occasionally supported by
national governments Gin the United
States the N. r. A. organized in
dustry with view to fresh expansion.
there has been practically no economic
activity on an international scale.
Under normal circumstances-where
there was not constant fear Of war
, or strained relations-recovery in in
dividual countries would be reflected
internationally. The exact opposite
has occurred.
The instability Of exchange rates,
the tremendous movements Of gold
reserves and restrictions Of exchanges
are elements which are preventing
the stabilization Of prices and the
free development Of trade, according
to the report. Until the dollar-franc-
pound have been stabilized or q work.
ing arrangement has been found for
tying them together there cannot pos
sibly be a return 10 prosperity in in
ternational trade.
Summarizing the situation in vari-
GUS countries, the report reveals in
teresting facts.
One is that "prices in countries
that have gone of gold have not been
increased and prices in countries on
gold basis have not diminished to
an extent corresponding to the change
In the volume of their trade"
Comparison Of the international
trade Of the most important coun-
tries reveals that, on the basis Of
the gold standard, most industrial
countries have kept only about IS
per cent of their 1929 trade. The
United States, however, has been
particularly hard hit, having lost
rs per cent of its 1929 trade.
Totals Are Compared.
Calculating the trade of various
countries on the basis Of their re-
spective existing currencies shows an
other side Of the picture, however.
Japanese official reports indicate
that Nippon's trade has decreased
only around II per cent, Australian
experts put their country's loss at
per cent and New Zealand reports
IS per cent. In other words the
trade Of countries on paper cur
rency has diminished considerably
less than has that of countries on
gold or partial-gold basis.
Answering the question 0 to
whether or not there Is any definite
signs Of recovery in world trade the
Economic Intelligence Survey report
points out that the total value Of
world trade did not diminish as much
in 1888 as it did in former years
1892, 1881 and 1850.
Nevertheless, it continued to