Evening star., 1934-06-17


Whether this view is justified or not
remains to be seen, but the truth of
the last months pickering over the
Geneva convention is that, except for
single issue, an agreement on re-
duction and limitation of armaments
could have been reached at any time.
That doesn't necessarily mean that
cannon and swords would have been
hammered into ploughshares within
the near future. 1t does mean that
the armaments race could have been
halted. ;
The question of air armaments is
the only material obstacle in the way
OF a limited disarmament treaty. View
points on trained reserves, offensive
and defensive arms. supplies, para
military organizations, chemical war;
fare, budgetary limitations and pub
lictty and other technical aspects of
disarmament have been brought near
enough to conformity to render diver
gencies harmonizable.
Political obstacles, however have
been almost insurmountabie Chief of
these is the French refusal to make
any concession, however slight, to Hit
lerite Germany. The Quai d'Orsay
considers itself largely responsible for
the Nazi ascendancy. Had a more
generous and conciliatory attitude
namely the BRAND -Stresemann policy
been pursued after the death of
Aristide BRAND and Herr Strese-
mann's Interpretation through illness,
the German Republic might still be
alive today.
French See No Reason to Assist.
But having made the initial error
of driving the German democrats to
the wall, the French see no reason why
they should voluntarily assist the
present undesirable (from the conti-
mental viewpoint) German government
to remain in power.
According to high French officials
the Nazis are encountering difficulties
on all sides-domestic as well as inter-
national Political relations with Italy
have never been worse than they are
now. The Austrian Anschluss ques-
tior is shelved, but not solved. Nazis
both in Austria and Bavaria are biding
their time-waiting for ripe fruit to
fall in their laps when the Dollfllss
regime coliapSes. Quietly and unob-
truSively the Austrian NaziS are win
ming over the disgruntled Socialists
whose party was outlawed by the
Heimwehrr Der Tag, for them, is yet
to come.
Between Nazi Germany and Soviet
Russia is a chasm than can scarcely
be imagined, let alone bridged. Ger
many'S persecution of Communists,
the abortive Leipsig trial which was
publicized as Germany VS.. Com
munism" rather than a case against
half-mad incendiarist. and the
anti-Semitic campaign first brought
down Russian hatred, Then Will
helmStraSSe's curt refusal of MoScow'S
non-aggression treaty which would
guarantee the integrity and territorial
independence of the Baltic States
further irked Litvinoff. But what
was more important was Germany's
10-year peace pact with Poland
Outside the formal understanding in
regard to the Polish Corridor, the
pact Is said to contain a common
policy in the event of var between
Russia and Japan. Poland's ambi-
tions in respect to the disarmament
of the Union of Socialist Soviet
Republics and the control of the
Ukraine are involved.
The political situation regarding
Germany's third great neighbor
France, is too well known to need re-
peating.
Wish Father to Thought.
That the wish-collapse Of Hit
leriSm-is father to the thought in
the minds of the French is unde-
niable. But the symptoms which
have appeared the past three or four
weeks give ample cause for reflection.
Internecine strife Is rampant in the
Nazi ranks The Communist element
in the Brownshirt party has been
breaking away at an alarming rate
recently and dissatisfaction among
the storm troops themselves is no
longer concealed.
Economically Germany is in a
bad way. While the Nazis claim to
have reduced unemployment from
5,598,000 in April, 1893, to 2,799. 900
at the beginning of April, 1884, en-
ployment statistics show that there
were only 13,5l8,000 registered as
working early this year. --latest
available figures). The monthly av-
erage of employed workers during
1888 was around 1880 900. So al
Though unemployment has decreased
by 2,799,000, the number actually
employed appears also to have di-
minished.
Financially Germany's condition is
precarious. A siX-month moratorium
on German foreign loans Except
services on the Young and Dawes
plans) has been extended by foreign
bondholders. Swiss and Dutch groups,
however, have refused to accept the
arrangement and are demanding
preferential payments. So long as
Germany can maintain an export
surplus Of around 330,000,000 gold
francs In her trade with Switzerland
she will be able to hold of her Swiss
creditors. But the gold reserves of
the Reichsbank have dwindled al
most to the vanishing point Cover
are now Is around per cent only
and it is doubtful if the Reichsmsrk
can hang on to the gold standard for
long.
AS for German commerce the sit
uation Is more critical. During the
past six years Germany showed a
healthy surplus of exports over i'm
ports. The phenomenon continued
into Hitler's first nine months in office
and then at the beginning of 1884
came the break. During January
Berlin's unfavorable trade balance
was S7400.O00 gold: in February II
dropped still further and imports ex-
ceeded exports in gold dollar value by
$8,l50,000. Economists freely predict
that within three months Germany
will be unable t. procure raw mate
rials and will have exhausted her pres
ent supply.
From unimpeachable sources it is
learned that the German Reichswehr
and militarists have quietly organized
to 'take over" in the event that Hitler
collapses. For the moment there is
no indication Of a desire to drive him
u