The Washington times., 1934-09-18

hour week, the -
confu sion at
tending the 'ESsSs ~
cracking up Of ,.,. u,,.
MIRA, and the
decline in stocks and Government
bonds-all these and more have
put the business community in a
disturbed and bearish frame OF
mind.
It is, perhaps true, as is often
said, that business in better than
business sentiment. At least, re-
tail and wholesale trade, and pro
duction in good many light
industries" are not so bad. 1t
can still be said that in these
cases dollar volume is above a
year ago.
But this thing called Senti-
ment has its Importance,
especially when there is as
much reason for it as there is
now. The plain facts are that
trade is not really as good as
dollar sales comparisons indi-
cate, and the unfavOrable trend
of the "heavy industries" is apt
to be the better barometer of
the underlying conditions.
The cold facts show that week
ago, which is the latest for which
figures are available, industrial
activity still pointed down.
Steel production has rebounded
o little from its long decline, but
is up less than usual for the
season, and steel scrap remains
weak in price. In any case, such
steel activity as exists is so large"
" based on Government spending
that it does not represent real
business.
Electric power production was
down and below a year ago. or
course, the closing of textile mills
by the strike is factor.
Carloadings were down, and be-
low a year ago.
The above are the three main
weekly barometerS, and best show
the true trend.
Commodity prices also declined
last week for the second week in
succession. Items which were
lower included grains, cotton, non
ferrous metals, steel scrap, rubber,
and lard. There were advances,
however, in meats, hides, and
cotton goods.
The most favorable showing ap-
pears in retail trade and in bank
debts. Cool weather and school
openings have had the usual sea-
Soned effects on trade, and the
distribution of Government funds
has done the rest. In interpret
ing the sales in dollars, however.
it is still necessary to allow Tor
the fact that prices are higher
than a year ago, and for the
liquor sales this year. When this
is done, it seems that the guam
tity of goods sold is actually less,
though increasing of late.
AS to the volume of bank
checks drawn, when you allow
for higher prices as affecting
the size of checks, and for Gov
eminent dOles Of one kind or
another, you see that the
figures largely represent the
New Deal sort of business"
Furthermore, bank debts had
gluelped to a very low level a
year ago. Considering these
facts, 8 per cent over year
ago is hardly encouraging.
Certainly the turnover of bank
deposist is down and below a year
ago.
The news of the week indicates
that the textile strike is losing
ground, as one would expect when
so much violence is resorted to
by the strikers. Though no early
end is probable, more and more
mills are opening up.
MIRA went along in the cracking
I'D process, with fresh evidence
of internal dissension and the
abandonment Of the original poll
cies as to price-fixing, wage-boost-
ing, etc. General johnson def
nitely split with organized laborO
AAA was put on the spot by
finding out that many farmers
have violated agreements to cur
tail production. Texas cotton
farmers are rebelling against the
Bankhead cotton restriction bill.
While Government bonds con-
tinued to decline, the Administra'
ton tried to bolster it's waning
credit by soft-pedaling initiation
talk. But its move to refund the
Liberty 4As is proving to be a
slow and different business, and
the short-term debt is not likely to
be reduced. Meanwhile. plans are
considered for some sort Of a Gov
ernment-controlled central bank
to swap its notes for Government
debt.
public eminent" Is better
than business sentiment" The
average man. still hopes for
benefits from the New Deal.
But the New Dealers have to get
money somewhere, and If they
can't get it out Of business, they
will have to manufacture green.
backs. Then 1t will be the pub