Evening star., 1934-04-28
BY THOMAS r. HENRY.

the Central racine, may DC a ue-
termining factor in the New York
weather next Fourth of July.
These intimations appear from the
work of r. H. Weightman of the
United States Weather Bureau staff
in an effort, with the aid of c. w.
A. workers, to bring some order into
the scrambled jig-saw' puzzle OF the
worlds weather. They are only clues,
Mr.. Weightman reported yesterday to
the American Geophysical Union, but
If they are supported by further
studies they offer new hope for long
time forecasting.
Reports Still Awaited.
First the United States was divided
into II natural weather districts.
Then the temperature of these dis
tricts for three-month seasonal periods
was correlated with the pressure de-
partures of 60 weather observing sta
tions all over the earth for previous
three-month periods. This work in
volved such an enormous amount
of calculation that 1t was possible
only with the clerical help furnished
by the C. w. A., and only district /,
comprising New England and New
York, was actually completed suffi-
ciently to be reported yesterday. OBJ
servations on other districts will be
reported later.
Mr.. Weightman realizes that statis-
tics are tricky, that there may be
factors which will nullify his findings,
| and that the research can be con-
sidered only in its earliest stages at
present, with little hope of carrying it
further without clerical help.
The figures show:
First, a high negative correlation
between the seasonal temperature of
district and the pressure for the
previous three months over a large
| area extending from the Northern
, Pacific southeastward to Northern
South America. The highest negative
correlation, -48, is found for Midway
Island. Colon, Panama. runs a close
| second. with a negative correlation
| of 80.
Correlation Is 81 Plus.
Second, a fairly high positive cor
| relation between the temperatures of
| district ! and the preSSures three
months before over South and East
| Central Africa and the Malay
| Archipelago.
Third, high positive correlation
between district l and the pressures
nine months previously over an area
starting in the Northwestern Pacific
l and extending south and southwest
| ward to Australia, and westward over
the Indian Ocean to East Central
Africa. The highest correlation was
| found with Batavia, Java, where it
was plus 81.
A high negative correlation between
| the temperatures of district l and
| the pressures nine months previous
| over Eastern Canada and Western
| Greenland-with a maximum of SO
at Moose Factory. on James Bay.
The reason for this relationship, If
| statistical refinements show that it
actually exists, is unknown to the
meteorologists. 1t was pointed out,
however, that for some time past ten
| tative forecasts of the Summer to be
| expected in India have been made on
the basis of the pressures over Alaska
for the previous three months. These
have met, however, with only indlf-
ferent success.
Northern Reports Help.
A more immediate possibility in
weather forecasting comes from the
increase of weather reports from the
Northern Hemisphere, it was reported
by C. L. Mitchell. also of the Weather
! Bureau staff. Especially noteworthy,
Mr.. Mitchell said, is the basis this
| affords for forecasting the behavior
| of tropical cyclones which arise in
the Pacific south Of Japan and turn
westward. If the pressure is high
| over the Arctic coasts of North
America and over Greenland and
Kamchatka these cyclones pass north
| over Alaska. On the other hand, if
the pressures are high over Alaska
they tend to be detected over British
Columbia and thus gain access to the
North American Continent. Storms
over the whole country may attend
| their paths.
DR.. Willis r. Gregg, chief of the
1 Weather Bureau, announced that pre-
| liminary steps already are being taken
to make use of the air mass analysis
method of forecasting which promises
considerably greater accuracy and
which was urged by the Presidents
| Committee on Scientific Bureaus of
| the Government.
Before any application Of this
method can be made, DR.. Gregg said,
vastly more data is necessary than is
| obtained at rreSent
Airplanes to Be Used.
Starting July /. airplane flights
from 20 stations scattered all over
the country will be made daily to q
height of approximately five kilo-
| meters and also from seven naval
ships. to secure data on conditions in
| the upper air. DR.. John Patterson,
director of the meteorological Office
| of Canada, announced that the Do
minion is preparing to cooperate by
establishing three stations for such
| airplane observations. One Of them
J will be at Fort Rae, on the Mckenzie
River. on the path of many Of the
| Arctic disturbances which invade the
United States.
The air mass analysis method,
Gregg explained, is not new. Its ad-
vantages have been understood by
meteorologists ever since the World
War. but the great expense necessary
to put it in operation has prevented
making use Of it. Probably about five
years will be required, he said. before
| it can be placed on a stable basis in
the United States.
1t was described as essentially
three -dimensional" meteorology. 1t
is known that great masses of cold
and warm air, instead of mixing with
each other tend to preserve their
identity. The moist, warm air masses
tend to rise and flow over the cold
air masses with which they come in
| contact. It becomes necessary to
know the height and extent of these
| masses.
Sun Works Like Dynamo.
The sin works like huge DYNAMO.