Evening star., 1934-06-10

months there are two pairs OF
r possible outcomes. One, In the
world of business, Is whether
or not there will be continued
recovery. The other, in the field OF
politics, Is the outcome OF the Novem-
ber elections, which cover the entire
House of 435 members and approx
mately third Of the Senate.
As to business, the primary condi-
tion-to be borne steadily in mind
is that all over the world the forces
of recovery are powerfully under way
They began, in the world as whole,
as early as June, 1882. 1t may not
be easy for the average man to under
stand, but statisticians know, and no
informed person questions. that the
low point of the depression as world
wide calamity was reached and passed
about June. 1882. From then on re-
covery has been under way at vary
ing rates Of speed.
Whether we in the United States
are as far on as we might have been
Is difficult to say. Democrats and
new dealers, flooding the Congress
sional Record with material to be
circulated during the coming congress
sional compaign, imply or state direct
" that the whole of our recovery is
due to the new deal. In many cases
they give the entire credit to N. r. A.
This, of course, IS merely talk for
campaign purposes. The disposition
to give N. R. A. credit for all the re-
covery is not, however. confined to
propaganda To express it more ac-
curately, propaganda has been so sue
cessful that many quite thoughtful
people give all the credit to N. r. A.
The condition is noticeable among
writer's of newspaper headlines. IN.
r. A. Reduces Unemployment" or
IN. r. A. Reduces Bankruptcies" are
types of frequent headline.
N. R. A. Not Necessary for Recovery.
This, of course, is quite incorrect.
That we would have had some re-
covery anyhow. as the natural re-
bound from depression, everybody
knows. Not even the most ardent
new dealer would deny that. Some
careful students compare the degree
of recovery achieved by the United
States with the achieved by other
countries and claim that N. r. A.,
with some of the other new deal
measures, has held us back. To this
dispute there can be no real answer.
How far along We might have been
had N. r. A. never existed is one OF
those Ifs" of history which can serve
only as occasions for entertaining
speculation. Certainly We can say
this: N. r. A. was not necessary for
recovery-recovery would have come
to us without N. r. A, as it has come
to England without N. r. A.
The main point is that the forces OF
recovery are under way. Such forces
are almost invincible They can be
checked and tortured by unwise acts
of governments, but they can hardly
be wholly destroyed. The momentum
of these upward forces, like the mo-
mentum of the downward forces that
prevailed from 1929 to 1882, is prac-
tically impossible to stop. This is the
fundamental fact about business. II
points powerfully toward optimism.
AS to the effect on business of leg
islation passed by this Congress, this
can be said: Something depends upor
what the administration does with
the controls it has acquired for itself
Something depends upon the bent Of
mind of the personnel of the various
commissions and individuals who have
been or will be put in authority over
business, upon the kind of men the
President appoints to the positions
not yet filled, upon the degree to
which some of these men may really
wish business recovery-or in the al
tentative may wish to bring about a
new social order in America. In all
this, of course, the real source is the
President himself He selects the
men; and these men, whatever their
personal biases, will be Influenced by
whatever is the Presidents wish
about business. Ordinarily. with q
congressional campaign under way, ar
administration would wish for gooc
business Omitting the political mo.
tive entirely, the evidence is prevail.
ingly to the effect that the President
personally wishes for business recov.
cry; he does not personally share any
disposition to bring about a funda-
mentally changed organization of So
ciety in America. But one must ado
that some persons highly placed in
the administration wish strongly fol
changed order of society in Amer
ica, and would hardly hesitate to de-
lay recovery if they thought the delay
would help to bring the change In
society-as, indeed, it would.
Controls Are Discretionary.
The administration, through vari.
GUS measures enacted by this Con.
gress, has acquired such a far-reach.
ing and minute control over business
as has never existed before q think
it is safe to say) in any country ex-
cept those having a conception OF
society and government different from
what has been in the past the Ameri-
can one.
Most of these controls are discre.
tionary. They are so discretionary
as almost to justify the assertion thai
| we have now a government by men a.
distinct from government by laws
instead of the old American ideal
which was ito the end that we may
have a government of laws and moi
of men," The administration, or the
aggregate of the officials in control oi
business, could break" any industry
written In parts. before sent off tr