Evening star., 1934-12-09

IN europe Wltnln q Drle1 period OF
time. These questions indicate grow
ing apprehension all over the United
States regarding the European situa-
ton and a further anxiety over the
possibility that the country may again
be involved in an Old World struggle.
AS to the issue Of peace or war dur
ing the coming year. it is clear that
conflict can come in one of three
ways: First, by a war of aggression,
that is, BY the deliberate attack Of
one country upon another with the
design Of bringing about change in
the territorial status quo; second, by
a war Of prevention precipitated by
some country which feels itself men
aced by future attack and finds itself
better prepared for war now than its
prospective opponent; third, by an in
cident, such, for example, as the assas-
sination of Serajevo.
- the light Of the existing situation
in rope. there seems to be but one
country which could conceivably start
a war of aggression and that is Ger
many. For Germany alone Of the
great powers of Europe is controlled
by a dictator whose undisguised pur-
pose it is to bring about revision Of
the territorial status quo in the Old
World And back of the purpose to
extend national frontiers and achieve
ethnic unity is the larger design to
find sources Of raw materials and mar
kets without which the restoration Of
Germany's pre-war prosperity seems
unattainable.
Defeat Seen.
Nevertheless, the professional SOL
diers of the Reich are today agreed
that in the light of the present stage
Of German rearmament war with
France would involve certain defeat.
Such information as can CLEAN points
to the conviction OF the German high
command that the German military
forces will not be ready for any con-
flict during the coming year. Trained
troops the Germans doubtless have in
adequate numbers. together with ma
chine guns and field artillery. but heavy
guns and tanks are yet to be manu-
factured in adequate quantities and
the problem of accumulating sufficient
steel, iron and a host of other things
necessary for war is far from solved
An act of aggression by Germany
deliberately calculated to bring about
war appears then totally unlikely un-
less the internal economic situation
becomes so desperate that the Nation
al Socialist regime finds itself faced by
Q choice between domestic upheaval
and foreign war. In this respect, it is
plain a moment Of danger will occur
toward the end of the Winter when
the privations Of the masses have
reached their extreme point. Never
theless present evidence seems to in
dicate that Hitler will manage to
weather the storm without risking a
war which threatens to result in su-
preme disaster.
AS for a war of prevention in theory
France could still attack Germany and
Italy invade Yugoslavia. Neverthe
less. the fact is that in the case of
France the moment has passed when
the opportunity for such an attack
upon Germany was clear. A year ago.
when Hitler was only newly come to
power and German rearmament hard
" begun, the allies of France-notably
the nations Of the Little Entente-did
urge upon their French ally the wis
dom of striking before Germany was
ready. And at that time legal jus
tification of such a course was to be
found in Germany's violations of the
Treaty of Versailles in the matter of
ornaments.
Would Be Costly Now.
Today Germany is far better armed,
and while probably not able to resist
French attack indefinitely, could make
such an attack costly in the extreme.
In addition. the French domestic SIT
uatioD has become obscure and uncer-
tain. There is, then. little or no like
lihood of a purely preventive operation
on the part of France. On the con-
trary, the French are likely to null
tiply their air forces, to continue to
extend their frontier defenses and or
ganize their army for a future conflict.
An Italian attack upon SYugoslavia
is. too. unlikely, because it would be-
yond any question put strain upon
Italian material resources which Italy
is now in no shape to stand. Nor could
even victory bring with it any eco
nomic benefits which would balance
the costs Of such an adventure. Italy
is, to be sure, better equipped IN all
the mechanical departments Of con-
hict, but the Serbs also are heavily
armed and their fighting qualities are
well known.
1t Is not beyond the limits of posi-
bility that the Yugoslavs themselves
might attack italy in order to bring
about domestic unity between the
Croats, Slovenes and Serbs Between
these three Slav tribes, and particu-
isrly between the Serbs and Croats,
there is long standing quarrel which
has already brought about two trag-
edies-the murder of Stephan Raditch,
the Croat leader, and the assassination
of Alexander, King of Yugoslavia. OF
the three possibilities-French, Italian
and Yugoslav-I am bound to say it
seems to me the last is the most likely
to happen. and yet, as things stand
today, If there Is no new development,
CNOL tAAAo cCChio . fSAdo4FCAy 4CAlOIC
contingency.
Incident More Likely.
Actually, as far as the five great
powers are concerned-France, Great
Britain, Germany, Italy and the Soviet
Union-it is fair to assume that the
governments Of all are equally eager
to avoid war during the coming year
The reasons vary, but the interests Of
all are identical.
There remains the question Of an
incident, and here, 1t must be con-
fessed, there Is very little cause for
optimism Last July, following the
murder Of Dollfuss, the Old World was
undeniably on the very edge of the
abyss. Mussolini's prompt mobiliza-
tion and his ultimatum to Germany
averted the disaster, but had he been
forced to move his troops into Austria
he would probably have come into COL
lision with the Yugoslavs as we'll as
the Germans. The assassinations of
Duca, the Rumanian prime minister,
and Of King Alexander and M. Bar
thou also produced extremely tense
moments, and the same may Of course
be said Of the Saar question.
What has to be realized very clearly
a