Evening star., 1934-07-27
u. S. TRADE FEELS
STRIFE IN EUROPE
Problem OF Restoration in
Face OF Conflict Puzzles
Economists.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

EuTVptdH hO{H CIVd0a L4a1ui eiAg
have their reflex In uneasiness here,
especially among those groups that
sincerely believe some measure Of
American recovery is dependent upon
foreign markets
The parallel with 1914 is. Of course,
heard constantly. For 1t was an event
which at the time seemed Of lesser
significance internationally than the
Dollfuss assassination that touched Of
the flames OF war 20 years ago. Still.
the expectation here is not that war
will result. but that Europe may be
kept In a constant state OF unrest
and apprehension as a consequence
OF a civil war in Austria.
American economic planning. to be
sure. does not take into account for
eign markets as the single answer to
the need for increased volume at
home, but there can be no doubt that
even the isolationists feel that some
enlargement of foreign trade Is natural
because commerce has sunk to sucn
low point.
Problem Difficult.
Just how American foreign trade
can be restored in the face OF an
unsteady and war-clouded Europe is
difficult to understand. There are
those who think war will mean in
creased exports of war supplies, but
the trouble with that theory is that
world credit is not what 1t was 20
years ago and, furthermore, the OPP
portunities TO finance exports OF war
munitions and supplies would get
tangled up with Federal policy, either
through the securities act or through
the broad powers possessed by the
President to declare an embargo on
exports to belligerents.
1t is a foregone conclusion that
American foreign policy will be to keep
out of direct ENHANCEMENT with any
of the powers abroad, though it is easy
to see how Great Britain or France
or Italy might become the base Tor
the supply of materials to one or the
other of the contending factions in
Austria or Germany, and in this way
American products might find their
way abroad without being directly
consigned to the belligerent armies.
Austria Plays Active Part.
1t is a curious coincidence that
Austria has furnished many turning
points in world history After the
European war, Austria played a COM
manding part in the peace negotia-
tions. Then, the first loan arranged
under auspices of the League of Ma
tions was made to preserve the au-
tonomy of Austria.
It was in Austria that the banking
crisis developed, which, in the Sum
mer of 1881, threw the financial world
into a panic and really caused such
losses to the British as to force a
suspension of gold payments in Eng
land. 1t was this same Austrian
bank crisis which caused President
Hoover to proclaim a moratorium on
war debts in the frantic hope of
averting a catastrophe in world
finance.
1t is apparent, therefore, that, not
withstanding the doctrines of the $50
lationists, to the effect that each
country can keep out of its neighbor's
troubles, If it likes, such a course
is hardly practicable in Europe. And,
once the larger powers, like Italy and
France and Britain, become involved.
it Is difficult to keep American eco
nomic interests, at least. from being
affected.
Recovery Menaced.
Every disturbance to the peace of
the world is menace to recovery.
Hitlerism has been a constant source
of apprehension to Europe. Autoc-
racy, 1t was believed, was stamped
out in 1918, but it has reappeared in
another form and now is just as
dangerous as it was a score of years
ago to the peace of Europe.
The hope here is that pressure from
all the European powers will take the
form of economic blockades rather
than military action and that the
ultimate result will be the setting up
of governments at Vienna and Berlin
which can be welcomed once more
into the family of nations. But Eu-
rope has the task to bring it about
and this time Uncle Sam will look
on, panied and harassed, but other
wise a far-away spectator.
tCopyright, 1934)