Evening star., 1934-07-23
BETTER BUSINESS
|SSEEN BY n. R. A.
"HOmeB Indicators Used
in Research Conducted by
Leon Henderson.

A substantial rise In business this
Fail and a less than usual slump
during the remainder OF the Summer
/. confidently expected by Leon Hen
dersou. chief OF the Blue Eagles re-
search and planning division Of the
n. r A. according TO The Associated
Press.
Henderson. following q close study
OF mass Of statistical and other
data has advised the N. X. A. to
gamble" on the upswtng. The Sum-
mer decline. ne was informed oy his
staff Of experts, already has been less
signs OF an upward trend in business
generally.
There Is no expecta ton, however, Of
a boom Henderson employs most
careful language in his estimate of
The future He referred today TO his
attitude as gamble" on the basis Of
the best facts available.
Watches Home Purchases.
The research chief is paying espe-
cial attention to what he describes as
his "homely indicators" Por instance,
there has been q gain in the sale OF
living room rugs one OF the first things
which housewives like to replace when
funds are available
There also has been a decline in the
number OF bachelors. he points out,
In one city, for instance. the number
Of bachelors before the depression was
10. 900. This increased to $4,000 at
the height OF the depression, and Is
now about % 900 the expert conclu-
sion being that men with funds are
less fearful Of marriage.
Henderson's doubling up" indicator
In reference to housing shows that
families which have been crowded
now are spreading out and filling
vacant apartments and houses.
Small personal loans, his figures
show. are being paid up in full at
an increasing rate The index Oh this
At = record high for the depression.
and higher even than in the month
when soldiers cash bonus payments
were largest Similarly the rate Of re-
payment Of building and loan obligs-
tionS is up, and the amount of un-
rented property held by building and
loan associations is down. Repay
ments to the Home Owners Loan
Corp. and Farm Credit Administra-
ton also are holding up we'll.
Shows Early Results.
Henderson said he was paying in
creasing attention to this type of
statistical indicator because, first. it
shows the status of the ordinary per-
son better than the customary type
Of business statistics, and second. be-
cause 1t tends to get at the beginning
OF the buying process rather than at
the end.
OF particular significance. Hender-
son said. are the indicators showing a
reduction in personal debt. He holds
this to be one OF the first develop
ments Of recovery, and points out
extra money coming to individuals
does not show in the economic pic
ture until such debts are substan-
italy reduced.
However, HendersOn's conclusions
are based Oh q multitude Of other
signs. Common stock prices have re-
manned relatively stable and there has
been NO increase in volume on the
downSide to indicate that n trend
substantially lower was being devel-
opcd. Bonds also are holding well,
and Government bonds are higher.
The trend OF prices In Is sensitive
stocks, as calculated by MOody's, also
was interpreted as upward. and the
stability Of this and other similar
curves gave indication OF no imme-
diate violent fluctuations in the price
cycle. Seventeen basic commodities.
as calculated by Warren 81 Pearson.
showed similar trends.
Henderson contended that 1t was
erroneous to compare the present sit
uation with the same period last SUM-
mer because artificial circumstances
forced too violent upward movement
at that time. Such sharp breaks. he
believes, are not to be expected now.