The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1934-09-11

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the walkout.
All reliable
business curves
are now the w
lowest since W.
December, 1888. Lewis H"ney
They are, of course, below a year
ago, although in last September
industrial activity had already
fallen far below the July, 1888
peak.
Thus we have to admit that
the experiment of printing the
pump has failed. The business
pump is evidently not primed.
It is notable, however, that
although Government expedients
for stimulating business and do
ing the stunt called creating
purchasing power" have fallen
down so many times. we still find
the chief hope of early expansion
based on similar measures.
Those who are most optimistic
about business, mostly base their
hopes on increased Government
spending and lending.
It seems to me that if we keep
on printing the poor old business
pump much longer, we may wear
it out-that or exhaust the
printing material, which is Gov
eminent credit.
Briefly, the facts are that
steel production has fallen to
something like Is per cent of
capacity, with the Pittsburgh
area down to about 10 per
cent. This is the lowest since
the bank crash of March, 1888.
Trade reports indicate no signs
of recovery in steel demand, as
the chief consuming industries
are flat, and the steel scrap
price barometer has turned
down. Most large steel buyers
seem to be expecting price con-
cessiOns.
The automobile industry is one
of the large steel consumers, and
here production has slumped
sharply. For a week ago, produc-
ton is estimated at Al per cent
of normal, which compares with
So per cent last year at this time.
Lumber production and orders
have also fallen and, despite ef-
forts to stimulate building &C.
tivity, are below year ago.
Electric power production,
which partly reflects general in
dustry, declined last week, and
the textile strike is likely to re-
duce it further. Much electricity
is consumed in private homes, but
evidently the use by large scale
business has fallen off so much
that the total output is off. In
cidentally, this figure is also below
o year ago.
Primary distribution, as indi-
Gated by railway carloadings, how.
ever, increased considerably last
week. One reason for this is a
squirt in coal production which is
seasonal and partly to anticipate
higher prices. Another factor was
a gain in miscellaneous freight,
probably representing Government
relief activities and a preStrike
rush.
Retail trade, though affected
by bad weather in some Sec
tions, seems to have been fair.
1t is good in parts of the West
and South, particularly in the
Southwest, where Government
funds are being distributed. On
the Pacific Coast, the recovery
from the lOngshOremen's strike
and large shipments of citrus
fruit, as well as large
salmon pack, are helping. In
the East, retail business is not
80 good and the textile strike will
probably retard it.
Commodity prices reacted a
little last week. Grains and tex
tile products were higher, but
metals were lower and hogs,
meat, and dairy products slumped.
Lead, zinc, and southern pine
lumber touched the lowest levels
Of the year.
For the moment. inflationary
forces are held in check, and the
administration has actually
turned to supporting the dollar,
contrary to its previous dollar de-
preciating tactics. This leaves
commodity price averages sub
ject to a battle between Cd the
forces of drought, the strike. and
Government loans and relief pur-
ehases, which tend to support or
raise them, and 90 the depres-
sing forces of business recession,
collapsing MIRA codes, consumer
resistance to a rising cost of
living, and general uncertainty.
Until August data are more
complete, I will not attempt a
forecast, but it can be fairly
said that September does not
now seem to promise as much
as the usual seasonal gain in
business activity.
DERRICK DIVIDEND
EmSco Derrick and Equipment
Company has declared dividend
of Is cents. payable September 20