Evening star., 1934-05-06
JAPAN'S MOVES RECALL
GERMAN WAR ACTIONS
Invasion of Manchuria Is Declared Not
Unlike Kaiser's Conduct Which
Broug hit America Into Conflict.

an equal Willingness upon the part OF
all nations to compromise their quar-
rels, respect their treaties, regulate
their ornaments But while Britain
or the United States would be quite
ready to carry the Chinese or Man
churian issues to a board Of arbitra-
ton, Japan must fight any such pro-
posal to the death for it would insure
defeat for her program.
Today the sole value treaty has
lies in the amount of force that can
be modified to prevent its violation.
Since no force can be mobilized to
defend the Kellogg pact or the nine
power treaty these have no value. On
the other hand, the willingness Of
Italy to defend the independence of
Austria has invested the treaty of
st. German with adequate force. Un-
able to fight an Italy which was
ready itself to fight. Germany had
temporarily to abandon its Austrian
adventure. BY contrast, since no ma
ton would take up arms to enforce
the disarmament clauses of the
treaty of Versailles, Germany is Wig
orously rearming today.
Not Willing to Fight.
Personally, despite all the European
chatter to the contrary, I do not be-
lieve that war between the United
States and Japan Is either inevitable
or even likely, provided American pol
icy discloSeS the smallest measure of
intelligence. Japan does not want a
fight, neither do We. But Japan Is
willing to fight under certain circum-
stances and we must expect to fight
if we establish those circumstances.
Already. by refusing to recognize
Manchukuo, we have made Japanese
labors harder. since we have thereby
encouraged Chinese resistance. BY
recognizing Russia we have similarly
stiffened the Soviet back. II now we
are going to insist upon financing and
arming the Chinese, then war is in
evitable.
War is also less likely, perhaps, but
nevertheless far from impossible, If
We go in for long series of notes ad-
dressed to Toxic and asserting by
words rights we have no present in
tention to fight for. To do that would
be to repeat the blunders of Wilson.
Every time he wrote a note to Ger
many and the Germans ignored that
note the result was blow to Ameri-
can prestige and an incitation to
American passion. Mere self-respect
dictated action in the end. And an
attempt to talk Japan out Of China
would inevitably have the same effect
as did the effort to talk Germany out
of submarine warfare.
Seeking World Power.
Japan is out for world power or
downfall and she has gone so far now
that only downfall can interrupt her
bid for power. The weakness. inde-
cision, incoherence of the western ma
| tions in the face of what has been a
direct and calculated challenge has
destroyed all her fears Of joint or
| individual action on their part in
Toxic. Berlin came to have the same
view of American policy as the Wilson
notes multiplied. In the end German
confidence proved mistaken, but not
more mistaken than American belief
that neutral rights could be main
tanned by war
For us the price of peace with Japan
is closing our eyes to Japanese action
in the Far East. The alternative is
war to abolish japanese pretension to
interfere with our exercise of our un-
| doubted rights in the matter of trade
and finance with China. Between
these two things there is no middle
ground. On the moral side the jap
| aneSe course is a challenge to all
postwar ideals of international peace.
On the material side it is an invasion
I of the sovereign rights of all other
nations. But, on the practical side,
| it is course the japanese are re-
solved to pursue, even at the risk
of conflict.
Opportunity for Incidents.
What is disturbing about the Jap
anese situation is that it offers an
almost hmitless opportunity for Incl
dents and thus the chance that popu-
lar passion may presently be aroused
beyond restraint, either here or in
Japan. That chance would be great
|
generally could be brought to per-
ceive that japanese resolution makes
futile all peaceful procedure and if
also pacif1sts could be persuaded to
refrain from demanding American
action to save the League and re-
store the Kellogg pact, in the mis-
taken belief that such action could
be effective while it remained purely
vocal
To me the very idea of war with
Japan is abhorrent, and nothing that
Japan has done or seems likely to do
in the Far East, however destructive
Of American rights and costly to
American interests, seems likely to
make the game worth the candle.
But to escape war it seems to me un-
mistakable that We must be prepared
to scrap rights. And If I am today
anxious, it is because, unhappily, I do
still remember the Maine"
(Copyright, 1934)