Evening star., 1934-11-18
FRENCH CRISIS HINTS
1885 EUROPEAN STRESS
Success OF Mobs in Removing Nation
From Position of World Influence
Favorable to Cause of Hitlerism.

under which the Reich is V1Sibiy stag
gering, he may be able to win for
Germany that predominance in Gen.
tral Europe which is the objective
Of all his policy. European hegemony
is, therefore, no longer beyond Ger
many's grasp, if only she can hold
on her home front through the cruel
tests of the coming Winter England
will not fight to stop German advance
to Vienna, France may be incapable
of such an effort. and Italy alone is
hardly strong enough to carry out
the mission upon which she has now
embarked.
OF course, If France could pull
through without internal explosion
and French public opinion could be
rallied against strong national gov
ernment in the face of evident eXter-
nal dangers. a real crisis in Europe
might be postponed. But there are
not lacking signs that the strain with
in France has almost reached the
breaking point. and as a consequence
that domestic passions will completely
suomerge international calculations.
II they do, all of Central Europe NAV
again be thrown into the melting not
Dourhergue in his later days fire.
quently warned his fellow countrymen
tnat failure to accept his reforms
might lead to civil war followed by
foreign invasion. That is obviously
possible now that he has gone with
out having been able to solve the do
mestlc problem. But even if civil war
and foreign invasion were both
avoided, France could nevertheless lose
ner grip upon the Continental situa-
ton and be forced to watch without
resource the swift consummation of
the German purpose Ut create a new
Mltteleuropa and establish an eco
nomlc and political mastery in all the
region between Bavaria and the
Balkans
Thus in considering what will hap
pen IN the streets OF Paris and in the
provinces of France in the next few
weeks and months it is ALWAYS neces-
sary to remember that the endurance
OF the system of frontiers and alli-
ances established at the peace con-
terence and during the postwar years
Is under terrific pressure. Broadly
speaking, that system has survived to
the present hour only because it has
neen backed by French military and
money power. Otherwise it could not
nave endured and it is far from clear
now long it can now last if France
is rendered helpless by her domestic
troubles.
AT the moment it is the Czech allv
OF France and the Italian rival which
seem called upon to pay the first price
OF French internal disturbances. And
the situation of Mussolini is far from
attractive. If he persists in his pur-
| pose to defend Austrian independence
he may have to fight Austria and
YugoSlavia without an ally. If he
abandons his policy, his loss of pres
tlge will be enormous and. in addition,
Germany will in no long time arrive
at the Brenner and in the Hinterland
of Trieste
Dictatorship Expensive.
Should France succumb to Dictator
ship-and the dictator has not vet
made his appearance-it would not
be difficult for the French and Ger
mans to arrive at an agreement, but
the expense of such an agreement
would have to be shared by Italy and
the former Czech ally. And France
would be crowded back behind the
Alps and the Rhine and deprived Of
most If not all of the influence she
has eXerted in the postwar years.
/ Not lmprobably this might bring
closer Anglo-French cooperation but
even that would diminish, not in
crease influence and prestige. For
France would be dependent upon
British aid for her security and there
fore unable to defy British desires
as she has in the past.
European affairs today resemble the
fast-changing pictures of a kaleido-
| scope. Political combinations are
breaking up and reassembling with
rapidity which is confusing. But
what is of immediate historic and
contemporary Importance is the fact
that the hegemony which France has
exercised for Is years is coming to
/ an end. whether to be replaced by
mere chaos or by German domino?
ton remains entirely obscure Every
disorder within France, however, must
constitute a presumptive triumph for
Hitler, provided only his own domes-
tic difficulties do not deprive him of
the chance of exploitation.
1t goes without saying. too. that in
such confused situation the whole
lace OF things may at any moment be
transformed by an incident which
might bring Italy and Yugoslavia into
conflict above the Adriatic, or Ger
many and Italy into collision beyond
the Brenner. And now that the
League of Nations has been thrust
aside, there is discoverable no instru-
ment which might serve to arrest con-
f1ict on the morning after crisis.
The fate of Vienna, therefore,
seems likely to be decided in the
! Place de Ia Concorde, and the tri-
umph or failure of Hitler to depend
upon what takes place in the next
few weeks in the traffic lanes of the
French capital. And besides this the
| question as to whether the republic
anism of Herriot or the reactionary
purposes of the French Right pre-
vail, seems relatively minor. So far
as one can now see, 1885 promises
to be for Europe more important than
any year since 1918 when the shape
of the postwar Europe we have known
was determined on the vast battle-
| fields. The form of a new Europe
may be decided by the success of
French mobs in removing their coun-
try from a position of influence in
Europe.
(Copyright. 1934)