Evening star., 1934-12-24
KEY TO 1885 SEEN
IN NEW CONGRESS
Actions to ForeteIl Men
and Issues in Next
Election.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

dental campaign, as well as another
contest in which the entire House Of
Representatives and one-third of the
Senate will be up for election.
This simple turn of the calendar has
in it more potentialities of influence
than any other single fact dominating
national policy today.
For the Congress which meets Just
after New Year day will authorize
and appropriate public funds or initi-
ate measures which will hardly come
to fruition at once but will produce
their full effect on the electorate in
the period Immediately preceding the
next campaign.
Also, many members of Congress
will face primary contests early in
1886 or the lines of battle within their
own parties will already be clearly
drawn by that time.
Roosevelt Seen Winner.
President Roosevelts denomination
and reelection are conceded by po-
litical observers at the moment on the
theory that present conditions will
continue and that Mr.. Roosevelt's pro-
gram OF social justice and his drive to
bring unemployment will still be the
dominant influences 18 months hence.
1t is beginning to be admitted by
economists and political folk alike that
the depression will hardly be over 10
months from now and that while re-
covery may be advanced, the feeling
of emergency or the fear of changing
major policies or leadership will not
have been erased altogether.
The Republican party has to date
shown no real sign Of recognizing
and unless the country is made fully
aware of the possible benefits Of a
change il administration. it is likely
that precedent will be followed in
adhering to the policy of not changing
horses in midstream.
President Wilson was reelected in
1915 much more on that philosophy
than on the keep-us-o out Of war
slogan, important as was the senti-
ment for peace. The idea that a
crisis was In the air and that change
might be disastrous was the under
lying force for Democratic victory.
ViriIe Opposition.
All this is not to deny the posi-
bility Of a virile leadership arising
between now and 1886 from some
quarter which will convincingly
demonstrate the fallacies in many
OF the New Deal policies and the
possibility that great hardship may
ensue from a continuance of unlim-
tied borrowing and reckless attacks
on the soundness of the currency.
But the fact remains that political
parties are not rebuilt in a few
weeks before the nominating con-
ventions.
If the Republicans really intend
to play any part other than making
their criticisms matter of record so
as to line things up for 1910, then
they are certainly remiss in letting
the problem of party reorganization
slide along without action.
Too many Republican leaders, of
course, are much more interested in
perpetuating their own lien on cer-
tain States or localities, where they
have held political sway in the past,
to care about national reorganization
of the party itself: and the Democrats
may win almost by default In 1895
II this spirit Of provincialism goes
unchanged.
1t was Calvin Coolidge who wrote
in an article published after his
death that there comes a time when
the winning of immediate elections
must hn c1Ihnrdi1otod - thu or &c
ment Of principles which becomes the
basis for triumph in succeeding elec-
tions.
1t is possible, of course, for a re-
organized Republican party to cap
ture more seats in the Congress
elected in November, 1886, than in
the election Of 1884. The Democratic
party made its greatest gains in 1910,
when 1t captured the House, and then
won the presidency in 1912 Also in
1880 the Democrats nearly won the
House and this presaged a landslide
in 1882. Coming political events
always cast their shadows beforehand.
Battle Over Turnover.
Thus, in sense, the battle Of 1895
may really be battle for the turnover
in Congress that may come in 1898
and possibly be followed by a party
change in the White House in 1870
But are all these things far off
and academic? Not the congressional
election of 1885 nor the presidential
campaign Of that same year. The
next IS months, beginning with the
all-important four or five months that
Congress will be in session starting
next week, offer the opportunity for
forum Of debate in which principles
can be set forth much more effectively
than in the atmosphere of the cam
paign itself.
Most political experts will agree
that the public is far more affected
by acts and speeches on current prob
lens between campaigns than during
the campaigns themselves President
Roosevelt himself practices that
theory, for his flreside radio talks
were begun almost Immediately after
he was inaugurated and have been
repeated at frequent intervals since.
Nobody representing the opposition
has had the ear of the country and
no political personal opposition seems
to have grasped the fundamentals
Of the country's mood sufficiently
to earn Nationwide hearing
for himself as leader of the Repub-
lican party. Most Of the opposition
speeches have been critical and many
of them have been sound and logical,
but the championship Of a way out Of
the depression that will appeal to the
masses has not come from any politi-
cal leaders of the faith opposite to Mr..
Roosevelt.
Will this void be filled in the next
18 months? The year 1885 and not
1886 will be the crucial time for
Republican reorganization and the
chance to capture more seats in the
next Congress. And what happens in
the next three or four months to
unfold Republican lines Of battle will
determine whether the 1885 campaign
will be the most one-sided reelection
campaign since the Civil War.
(copyright. 1934)
MAN WHO GULPED KNIFE