Evening star., 1934-04-08
French Internal Weakening Leads
To European Powers Realignment

rope would be far from as reassuring.
The little entente would lose its great
backer; it would be caught between
German and Italian policies; its
members would have to turn either to
Rome or Berlin. The last semblance
Of an organized Europe would dis
appear. Mussolini and Hitler would
face each other for the inevitable bat
tie over the Danubian Basin; France
and Britain would watch from the
side lines.
If. however, France should herself
have revolution. the situation would
change again. II the revolution were
no more than an upheaval producing
a change in regime, the substitution
OF a Fascist for a republican form Of
government. that change might have
relatively slight repercussions. II,
however, 1t were preceded by some
form of civil war, then the danger,
indicated by Premier Doumergue re-
cently-the danger of actual invasion
might become real. And it is the
fear Of civil war that turks in the
minds Of certain Frenchmen at the
present time.
Macdonald Discredited.
That eventually would be very I'M
pleasant for the British. In the first
place a Fascist triumph in France
would leave Britain the only consid-
erable democracy in Europe. Secondly
an upheaval in France-even If lin
tied to civil war without foreign in
vasion-would have gravely disturbing
consequences for England, as it would
certainly lead to new trouble all over
the continent. This is another rea-
son why Britain might be led to make
concessions to the French in the mat
ter OF security to contribute to the
survival of the republic
The trouble in England lies in the
fact that the British at the moment
have a national government which
discloses all the weaknesses and none
of the advantages OF a coalition. Mac
Donald himself is at once very sick
and generally discredited. Sir John
Simon is the weakest foreign minister
Britain has known in decades. The
cabinet Is divided not only because
there are several parties represented
in it, but because the Tories, who have
the overwhelming majority, are hope
lessly split among themselves. And
the fact that labor is gaining steadily.
as figures OF recent elections show,
adds still another element to the gen.
eral confusion.
A Nationalist government in France
and Tory cabinet in Britain
could probably find a basis of agree
ment. at least for the time being. And
Franco-British association might in
sure italian support. for Mussolini's
situation, although brilliant superb
cially. is actually dangerous in the
extreme. But II there is no one to
give Europe lead in the present cri-
sis, then events seem destined TO drift
dangerously for an indefinite period.
Beneath the surface economic con-
dltionS are again becoming serious
alike in France and In Germany. And
1t is economic differences which make
political agreements difficult Trade
wars have been launched. terminated
by truces. started over again. A vast
amount Of unpleasant language has
been flung across the Channel. A
good many windows. figuratively
speaking. have been broken. The press
in both countries has been very un-
gracious: public opinion is consider
ably exacerbated. Thus while an
Anglo-French understanding may be
in the offlng and seems the only sane
course in present circumstances, it Is
by no means assured.
European AIignments Changed.
II Fascism (of course in a French
/ form) should come in France-a die
tatorship undoubtedly dominated b5
Nationalistic sentiments and Leaders,
then France might reappear in the
European field seeking to recover hel
lost position and restore her lost ALI.
ances. Then there would be at least
three rival forces at work in Central
Europe: the German, the Italian and
the French. In such a situation any.
thing might happen-anything but
peace and recovery. which would be
postponed indefinitely.
Today. 1t seems to me. the fight
that is going on in France. under the
surface. is the most important single
incident in contemporary history. AL
ready the weakening of France has
changed the face of European combi.
nations. Now a collapse Of the re.
public would certainly put an end to
democracy in Europe outside of Brit.
ain for an incalculable time. while q
French civil war might precipitat.
new wars all over the continent. Wher
Bismarck overthrew Napoleon III anc
Germany replaced France as the dom
inant power in Europe, it was wittily
remarked that Europe had lost a mis-
tress and gained master. But now
as domestic conditions are deprivine
France Of her European ascendancy
there is no discoverable substitute
unless it be the Germany of Hitler
for Italy. unsupported by some grea,
power, cannot hope in the long run
to resist the superior force of Ger.
many
In any event the evident but omi-
nous pause in European events is pri.
marily explicable in terms of French
domestic conditions. After dominat-
ing the continent for more than q
decade France Is now in the grip OF