Evening star., 1934-10-28
|SWING TORICHT FORECAST
in NU.S.POLITICAL THOUGHT
Defeat of Sinclair in California Regarded
as Virtually Assured, Ending High Tide
of Radical Movement, Says Writer.

radicalism. Whenever Congress faced
the issue plainly, with the familiar
American system on one side and
collectivism on the other. Congress
rejected the radical departure. There
is practically no fa.ntest likelihood Of
the new Congress deliberately taking
the country toward a changed form
Of society.
AS to President Roosevelt, he is a
little like Congress. He will not go
toward either Fascism or modified
Communism, knowing that he is doing
so. He might be led into indorsing
measures which would have that ulti-
mate effect, but would not take the
step deliberately. do not think any
one ever seriously charged Mr.. Roose-
welt with the intention of bringing
about either Fascism or any modifica-
ton of Communism in America. I
think at least one of the members Of
his brain trust has had dreams as
radical as that, and many of the minor
intellectuals in the administration are
avowed believers in getting rid of the
system of private ownership and pri-
vate property. Through the actions
Of some of these Mr.. Roosevelt might,
and, indeed, already has, taken some
steps which, unless abandoned, would
make the familiar American system
impossible to operate. But Mr.. Roose-
welt has made it clear during the past
two months that his wish is TO get the
familiar American economic system
into operation again.
Congress Might Seek Initiation.
AS to fiscal radicalism. the case is
somewhat different. 1t is not differ
ent with Mr. Roosevelt; he is devoted
to avoiding initiation and has lately
taken forcible steps to that purpose.
With Congress, however the situation
is different. 1t might readily be that
as much as half the Senate and half
the House would vote for sonic types
of imitation. Half, but not two-thirds.
And it takes two-thirds to enact in
flation over the Presidents veto. All
of which means that If Mr.. Roosevelt
sets his face against imitation Congress
will not initiate over his veto.
There remains, of course, the chance
that the country might drift into in
fiation without the direct intention Of
Congress and without the direct in
tention of the President. The one
condition that would inevitably bring
imitation is failure of business TO re-
vive. And it might turn out that
some of the measures already taken
may have put such hobbies on indus
try as to make it impossible for our
present economic structure TO func-
ton sufficiently. In that event, unless
the hobbies are removed. We should
have imitation as a matter of course.
But the past few weeks IN Washington
have shown that President Roosevelt
is both opposed to imitation and also
willing to alter or get rid of measures
so hobbling as to make the revival Of
industry impossible.
Imitation Tied to Business.
Imitation is inseparably tied up with
business. The two possibilities ahead
may be stated thus: Lack Of business
revival means lack of employment:
lack of employment means increased
expenditures by the Federal Govern
ment for relief; increased expendi-
lures for relief means greater and
greater debt, longer and longer post
ponement of balancing the budget.
And if the balancing of the budget is
sufficiently postponed, if the amount
Of debt grows to a sufficient SiZe-in
that event imitation comes as a matter
of course.
The more happy possibility can be
stated thus. Increase of industry
means increase of employment: in
crease of employment means more
persons taken off the relief rolls of the
Government; more persons off the
Government relief rolls means less
borrowing by the Government. In yet
a second way increase of industry
works to the same result; increase Of
industry means presumably more
profits; more profits means more taxes
flowing into the Government Treasury.
In the light of the turn Mr.. Roose-
welt has taken during the past few
weeks, and in the light Of manifesto
tons of sentiment throughout the
country, it is poSSible-poSSible, but
not yet sure-that America may get
through all this turmoil without fun
damental change in our social struc-
ture. What Mr.. Roosevelt is appar-
emily aiming toward, since the recent
modification Of his attitude, may be
no more than a sterner regulation Of
business, of the sort that both Wood
row Wilson, 20 years ago, and Theo-
dore Roosevelt, 80 years ago, preached
and to some degree brought about.
Neither Woodrow Wilson nor Theo-
dore Roosevelt wished to destroy the
American structure. They intended to,
and succeeded in bringing about, with
in the framework of that structure.
material changes, especially material
restraints upon business. 1t may be
that We shall come to the end of our
immediate era with merely an addi-
ton to those restraints and regula-
tionS and without either breaking or
razing the old American framework
of society.
Copyright. 1934)