The Washington times., 1934-12-04

ner ho n A ~
that thus far Lewis Haney
the upturn in business volume
which has occurred since Sep
tember has had less artificial
stimulus tn n its predecessors.
There has been no uprush of
buying and prices in anticipation
of initiation" There has been
no huge stepping up of Govern
ment spending.
Both business men and the
New Deal politicians are more
cautious as a result of past fail
ures,
It is to be hoped. therefore,
that the present period of ex-
panSion will continue at a mod
crate pace, and that any reaction
later on will also be moderate.
Last week. steel production con.
tinued to do better than season
ally. The Thanksgiving holiday
brought little let-down, but not
as much as usual, and indications
point to a further contra7seasonal
gain. The outstanding demand
comes from auto parts makers,
farm machinery, and tin plate
largely for EXPORT.
Automobile production fell fur
ther. as the manufacturers are
getting ready for their next years
drive. But lumber and cotton
cloth production picked up.
The least encouraging fact is
the continued downward trend of
railway carloadings, and this
index is lower than a year ago.
This fact suggests that there is 4
good deal Of production in anti.
cipation Of future business. 1t
would be very reassuring to have
shipments begin to turn up before
long.
Commodity price averages
rose last week. Perhaps the most
notable point is that there were
almost no declines, which Sug-
gestS stabiIizatiOn. The rise in
the average was led by corn,
lard, cOttOnseed oil, and meats.
Textiles and silver were also
higher.
If business expansion is to con.
t1nue. you may be reasonably
sure that commodity prices will
rise, and thus show further ef-
fects of the great potential in.
flatation which exists.
While there has been no CWA
this year to provide spectacular
channel for government relief
spending, some scheme for a gov
eminent work program" is soon
to be announced. This will center
In house building. 1t will be more
deliberately devised than the
CWA army. and will last much
longer.
The advantages are that if the
recipient of relief has to work on
a building, he may feel that he is
doing something worth while.
Maybe, too, the government can
get back some of the money it
spends. In any case. housing
spreads demand for many kinds
OF material and labor.
The drawbacks are that it takes
much time to get building started.
Government building is bound to
compete with private building,
since people can't live in privately
built homes and government built
homes at the same time. The
true cost OF government building
Is certain to be higher, while the
rents or sale prices will be low, so
the operation will be nowhere
near self-suStaining.
The money cost of such indirect
relief will be at least double any
Sustem of direct relief. 1t is bound
to increase public debt enor.
nouSly.
In this connection, the week
brings the news that the Federal
debt will run over $4,000, ,0O0. 900
on December Is. The Govern
ment on that date will require the
banks and other financial institu-
tions to take $9OO,0O0,OOO new
Shortterm debt. This will give it
"cash" with which to start the
relief program.
BY June, the public debt will
be well over $4,000, 900, 900,
which is nearly double what it
was before the New Dealers
started dealing.
To this debt, Mr.. FarIey's
post office department contrib.
uted about S54,OOO,OOO. Nobody
of experience paid any attention
to Farley'S claim to a S12,OOO,-
900 postal Surplus.)
l, for one, have to confess
that the question whether this
debt is going to be paid. and if
50. how. is beginning to worry
me little. Am l just Old-fash-
iOned?