The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1934-12-13
Liberal Vie DIN t
By DR.. HARRY ELMER BARNES

HISTORY does not necessarily repeat itself
and there is no reason to believe that
Balkan disputes, border raids and the lineup Of
powers must bring war in their train. The Bos-
MAN crisis in 1909 and the Morocco crisis Of
1911 both brought a decisive lineup of major
European powers, but there was no war. The
Balkan Wars of 1928 passed without involv-
ing Europe, though they did help prepare the
way for the outburst in 1914.
Yet their are instructive smiliarities between
1914 and 1894 which may be brought out with
profit We shall have to wait to see Just how
comparable these events turn out to be.
The lineup of the powers in 1914 over the
crisis between Austria and Serbia came fairly
promptly. On July 5 Germany assured Austria
that the latter could count fully on German
aid, l4omise which did much to encourage
Count BerchtoH to go ahead with his strong
ultmatum to Serbia
Italy the other member of the Triple ALI
ance, hedged, fo= as far back as 1902 she had
secretly agreed with France not to attack the
latter, though quite without knowledge of Ger
many and Austria.
nN the other side, the Tsar of Russia had
" assured Serbia of Russian aid and protec-
ton even before the crisis of 1914 broke out
In the summer of 1913 and in February, 1914
Russia had given it's promise to stand firmly
beside Serbia, though recently as 1911 Rus
STA had been willing to stand with Turkey
against the Balkan states in case Turkey would
give Russia full freedom of the Straits leading
out of the Black Sea.
President Poincare of France went to St.
Petersburg after the crisis had arisen and dur
ing his stay in the Russian capital repeatedly
assured the Russians that France was prepared
to fulfill all of her obligations growing out of
the Franco-Russian Alliance When the Rus
o0ff hat
was bound to bring a European war-France
told the Russians to go ahead and count on
French aid. The next day the French Minis
terial Council decided upon war and handed the
information to the Russian Ambassador in
Paris.
England joined Italy in ref sing to declare
her stand with her allies in 1914. She declined
to try to restrain either France or Russia in the
warlike moves of these states, but she would
not openly declare her loyalty to the Triple En-
tente
This had serious results, for Austria would
not have riSked a European war if she had
known that England would join France and
Russia. Count Berchtold explained to me in
detail in the summer of 1927 that his action
against Serbia was formulated on the aSSump
ton that England would remain neutral He
said he had such assurance from the British
Embassy in Vienna. He asserted that he would
never have gambled on the chance of a Euro
pean war if he had thought for a minute that
England would enter.
AIOW France ranges herself firmly on the
IN side of Yugosavia, and Italy alongside of
Hungary. The other members of the Little En-
tente have declared their loyalty to Serbia. The
chief cause for reinsurance today lies in the
fact that the lineup of powers in Europe is so
one-Sided that it is unlikely that Italy will per-
NIT Hungary to take warlike action. II Duce
may now regret that he alienated Germany last
summer with respect to the Nazi movement in
Austria, but friends of peace may well rejoice
that he did. With Germany ranged up with
Italy, Hungary and probably Bulgaria, the bal
ance of power might be even enough to make
war extremely likely.
Border incidents played little part in bringing
on war in 1914. The French withdrew their
forces 10 kilometers back of the boundary in
certain sections of the Franco-German frontier,
the better to screen military measures. Both
France and Germany charged border violations
but these charges were only trivial efforts at
justification for policies already decided upon
Russian soldiers had crossed the German from
tier before Germany declared war on Russia on
Aug. l. but war between Germany and Russia
had already been rendered inevitable by the
Russian general mobilization two days earlier.
The intense feeling between Hungary and
Yugoslavia at the present time may however
provoke some overt act which will make it diff
fcult to prevent war and European conf1agra-
ton. Italian pressure on Hungary would be the
best preventive right now.
In 1914 the secret understandings between
the powers, especially between England and
France, did much to help on the war. This may
turn out to be the case today, particularly if
there is any covert understandings between Ger
many and Italy which give II Duce added conf
dence in the face of war. We shall have to
await developments before attempting to draw
any further anaogies between 1914 and 1884.