Evening star., 1934-09-09
REICH EVENTS HINT TRUCE
WITH FRANCE OVER SAAR
Economic Interests of Two Countries
Dictate Cooperation, and Political
Conflict Is AvOidable.

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and Germany or to stand aside and
let events take their course in Central
Europe. But in either case the
eventual success Of the Germans can
be assumed.
French Fears Diminished.
French policy, however. still rests
upon the conviction that there can
be neither peace nor order in Europe
and therefore no security for France
while the Hitler dictatorship survives.
French fears-though still active
have been greatly diminished alike
by the growth of unrest within the
Reich and by the evident return of
the British to pre-war point of
view about Germany. This change
has, too, brought with it a significant
renewal of Anglo-French military as
sociations.
1t is then highly unlikely that the
French will pay much attention to
any proposal for an understanding
with Germany before the January
plebiscite in the Saar. Afterwards,
however, If the Germans win, then
the situation could change, for Hitler
in such case will have something very
definite to offer the French. Thus
the proposal of some form of economic
bargain, equally profitable for the
Saarois and the AlSatians, might serve
as the foundation for political truce.
And Germany has also further re-
source since she could agree TO pur-
Rhoca Erornn iron khtts 4.
old association between the Ruhr and
Lorraine, which ended when Alsace-
Lorraine returned to France.
What is impressive in the situation
Is the obvious fact that the economic
interests of France and Germany all
dictate cooperation and not conflict
and that even the political interests Of
the two countries are not directly in
collision once it becomes clear beyond
question that Germany accepts the
status quo in the Rhineland, that is,
that she abandons any plan to mu-
tilate the frontiers of France, Bel
gium or Holland. To this Germany
did agree in the Pact of Locarno
which bestowed a British guarantee
upon the existing situation IN the
Rhineland.
1t remains entirely likely, however,
that the next six months will see
either the collapse of the Hitler re-
gime or restrictions placed upon the
absolute power of the dictator which
will modify the international situa-
ton. Confident that the former re-
suit will arrive the French are likely
to play waiting game and at the
same time strive to persuade the Saar-
ois to vote to retain their present
status. But beyond the plebiscite and
the possible shift in control in the
Reich events are clearly taking a di-
rection which make some sort of
Franco German truce likely.
Hitler Faces East.
Hitler has decisively turned Ger
man policy in the direction of Vienna
and the Danube. He has abandoned
the issue of the Polish corridor and
made a 10-year truce with the Poles
and political peace on the Vistule has
been supplemented by economic bar
gains which can have lasting effects.
His EhrenbreitStein speech suggests
that he is resolved to make the same
sort of arrangement with France. In
Poland he has found a prospective
ally; in France he can, at best, only
find a quiescent neighbor.
But in 'plumping" for Austria and
the AnschluSs, Hitler has abolished
all present hope of any German
italian alliance. If Germany gets
Austria, Italy might still be an ally of
the Reich, but she could not remain
an equal because the disproportion of
the two countries will be too great.
And, again, if Germany comes to
Vienna, Italy must abandon def
nitely all hope of sphere Of influence
in Central Europe. In fact she would
then have to choose between a Ger
man and French alliance and in
either case her influence would hard
ly be greater than 1t was in the old
triple alliance Of the pre-war era
where she was decidedly the poor
relation"
Behind the scenes, therefore, the
next few months will see great activ-
ity in Europe. Hitler will be carry.
ing on fight at home and abroad
at home against economic prostratton
and popular unrest, abroad in the
Saar, where defeat would spell su-
preme disaster. Mussolini will be
striving to strengthen his precarious
system of alliances in the Danubian
area. France will have to face a do
meStic political crisis when the Cham
Der meets in October and must also
view with mixed emotions the disin-
tegration of her Central European
system. But failure to see the possi-
bility for peaceful solutions is to be
unprepared for historic events.
(Copyright. 1934)