The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1934-09-14
Liberal Viewpoint
-RY DIR. HARRY ELMER BARNS.

BY DR. HARRY ELMER BAhNES----
MUCH animated discussion is being provoked
wi by the prediction Of the English stock mar
ket expert, Major Angas, that We likely are TO
have a decided boom in business and security
prices beginning some time within the next SIX
months.
Personally nothing would suit me better than
the vndication Of this prediction. On the as
surance Of another great business expert IN 1880
that prosperity was Just around the corner,
bought conservatively a number Of g1ld-edge
certificates. If Major Angas is right I might
escape with whole hide.
So nv emotions are all with the major but
my intelligence is not quite so unanimous. MAJOR
Angas admirably summarizes what he regards
as the items in the business setup which are
likely to promote an impending boom:
Larger purchases; a fall in retail stocks; in
creased orders to manufacturers; increased
manufacture and larger industrial incomes paid
out IN the course of production; larger eXpendl-
ture by workers before the new production Is
completed further decline in inventories and
the prospect Of still higher prices; increased
manufacture by makers of stock in the nope OF
rise; hurried buying by consumers in the fear
of it; increased borrowing from the banks by
middemen manufacturers and SPECTATORS, and
further increase in the bank credit currency
'virtuous' upward spiral thus will have begun;
the vicious circle will be forgotten. Boom pSy-
chology will add fuel to the flames"
If business and finance under capitalism
were a purely automatic affair the majors pre-
dctions would be almost sure bet but there
are psychological and social factors of great i'm
portance with which he does not reckon.
THERE was real basis for big boom
il months ago. The greatest boom known
since the Coolidge days already was in
full swing and there was no logical financial or
business reason why it should not have con-
tinued for months.
There are two ways in which business boom
possibly may be started in this country: Cd The
enthusiastic initiative of finance and business;
or 20 aggressive action on the part Of the gov
eminent taking the broad form of comprehens-
i've initiation policies. OF course, the two might
operate in conjunction.
AT present, at least, there seems little pros
pect of any boom being launched by business
and finance. The leaders thereof are Sulky and
sour and capital is on the greatest strike in our
entire national history. In their present tenn
per the capitalists seemed determined to de-
Stroy Roosevelt politically even If they pull the
| economic system down about their ears in so
doing They wish no business boom which Will
boost the Roosevelt fortunes and re-elect him.
BY the leaders in business and finance, re-
fer, of course, to those who dominate the 200
great corporations that control American bust
ness and the less than dozen great banks
which control our capital-in other words, those
who are today backing up the Liberty League
and other organizations designed to stop
Roosevelt"
THERE is little probability that business and
L. finance will cooperate in setting off any
business boom unless the congressional cleo
ton this fall so overwhelmingly and obviously
vindicates Mr.. Roosevelt that even such short
sighted persons as themselves will finally rec
ognize that opposition and sabotage are futile.
1t is quite possible, however that even q
sweeping Roosevelt victory would not induce
them to loosen up. 1t might do no more than
to stiffen their backs more resolutely for the
struggle of 1886 trying in the meantime to keep
capital on strike
The government might promote boom
through extensive financing of business enter
prises and through further vast public works
and relief projects. But with the existing ex-
penditure record and increased debt burden, it
can not 90 too far in this direction without I'M
dermining government securities to a certain
extent. If business and finance have been able
to sabotage the inflationary measures of the
administration to date they can probably con-
tinue.
All that the honest and intelligent man can
do is to size up the factors in the situation and
wait TO see what breaks. He will do we'll not to
count too much upon financial logic. There are
a lot of penniless suckers whose movements in
Wall Street since March 1888 have been based
upon the most impeccable logic
In the long run, even if boom comes, it only
can result in an even greater disaster if it is
founded upon shot in the arm rather than
sound economic policies.