Evening star., 1934-02-18
FRENCH CABINET SEEN
FACING WAR DECISION
Doumergue Policy on Austria May De-
termine Whether Germany Will
Force Conflict, Observer Says.

Socialist votes, France was predes-
tined to passive acceptance of things
which foreshadowed her own ulti-
mate ruin
But any one who recalls the speech
of Doumergue at Toulon, just before
he left the French presidency-a
speech which was call to arms in
the face of perils that have become
even more unmistakable since-will
feel certain that having become prime
minister, he will not hesitate. Nor
will Herriot, Tardieu, Barthou or
Laval. For all Of these men believe
France is today in danger by reason
not alone of German action, but of
German plans as well.
MeaSurably the situation today Is
like that of 1922, when Poincare
came into ofnce. Then as now France
was isolated. her English ally was
cold her Italian bitter. Germany was
openly defiant and the whole struc-
ture of the peace treaties was
crumbling. Poincare met that situa-
ton by an occupation of the Ruhr,
which broke the immediate will of the
Germans for resistance and paved the
way for the truce of Locarno.
Doumergue, or any other man who
now has to conduct French foreign
policy, can only have the choice of
Poincare in 1922, and in the end can
hardly escape following his example
If Germany can now arm at will, alb
sorb Austria, destroy the Little En-
tente, what after that will be the sit
uation of France in the face of this
new Germany, fired by the Hitler
gospel and intoxicated by the extent
of its success?
Thus not only is the situation today
like that of 1922, but, am also con-
vinced the solution taken by the pres
ent French government will be like
that of the past. Once the new gov
ernment has taken hold and the Aus
trian appeal to Geneva comes up for
disposition in my judgment We shall
see issue from Paris another ultima
tum which will prove the prelude to
new invasion of Germany. Nor do
I think that this time French armies,
if they are successful, will halt short
of Berlin.
Aim of Operations.
The objective Of French military
operations now, moreover, would not
be the seizure of the Rhineland or
even the permanent occupation of
German territory or the continuation
of German disarmament. On the con-
trary, it would be rigidly restricted to
the overthrow of the Nazi regime. If
the consequences of the Hitler revo-
luton were disclosed to the German
people within one brief year in the
form of new invasion and an actual
occupation of Berlin, the result might
be the permanent discrediting of
the Fuehrer and his cause.
In any event this much is true, that
such a conclusion will be held by the
men who are now to dominate and
direct French policy. And if they
hesitate and weaken now it is plain
that the consequences, not only for
them but for France and for Europe,
must be incalculable. In 1866 France
stood aside and let Bismarck conquer
Austria-less than five years later
Prussian troops were under the walls
of Paris, having destroyed one French
army at Sedan and captured another
at Metz.
In sum, today the relation OF Aus
tria to the European situation is
Identical with its relation two gene
rations ago. If therefore France lets
Hitler repeat the triumph of Bis
marck, she can only expect that the
later consequences Of her passivity
will be like the earlier Thus the new
French cabinet has shortly to decide
between the risks of war of preven-
ton against a disarmed Germany now
and war of self-defense against this
same Germany, armed and expanded,
at the moment Hitler chooses to
launch it.
To believe that France will wait,
moreover, is to believe that those
who now direct French policy are
blind to the lessons of French his
tory. And certainly nothing that
Doumergue, Tardieu or even Herriot
has said or done in the postwar
years juStifles any such conclusion.
But the alternative is a war of pre-
vention next month or in April.
Copyright, 1934.)