Evening star., 1934-12-02
Speculation Still Rife
Over Naval Conference
BY A. G.. GARDINER.

LONDON, December lin view
of the stalemate which has been
reached in the London naval CONVEX
sations, I make no apology for re-
turning to the Anglo-American-
japanese question. For below the
surface, and in spite Of such prob
lens as those of the Saar and India,
no subject is the theme Of more anx-
ious thought and discussion than this.
1t is taken for granted that the
japanese rejection of the British pro-
posal of a "gentiemen's agreement"
means that the Washington treaty
which, as the New Statesman remarks,
is lone Of the few great instruments
of peace devised since the war
must go.
To be quite candid, no one expected
that the "gentlemens agreement"
would save the treaty. That proposal
was too obvious face-saving formula
on which to build a stable under
standing, and no tears are being shed
because it has been brushed out OF
the way and Great Britain and the
United States are faced with the
naked demand of Japan for parity
a demand which, in view OF the rela-
tive obligations of the three powers,
neither Britain nor America can con-
cede.
1t is not assumed, however, that
the denunciation of the Washington
treaty and the breakdown of the con-
versations is the end of the matter.
AS the London Times points out, the
trainers of the treaty inserted the
wise proviso that even If it were de-
nounced the signatories were to meet
in the following year to negotiate
new treaty. And though the new
treaty, if implemented, can only be
pale shadow of the old, 1t need not
be valueleSs.
Even Japan will be anxious that 1t
should renew the "non-fortif1cation
clauses Of the present instrument. 1t
is owing to these that no new naval
bases have been established in the
Pacific within 3,000-mile radius of
Japan, and a competition in naval
bases would be as ruinouS and provo
cative as competition in battleships
and cruisers.
Moreover, by the time the naval
conference meets, much may hap
pen. "The almost certain prospect Of
an utter disorganization of her ma
tional finances" says the London
Daily Telegraph, may yet prove a
powerful counterpoise to Japanese ma
tional pride when the ultimate deci-
sions have to be found to which these
conversations are but preliminaries. ("
But, putting aside these specula-
tions, what happens If the Washing
ton treaty goes, and with it the 5-5-
3 ratio?
IF Japan builds, it will be mira
Gle If the United States does not build,
too," says the New Statesman. I'VE
menace of a new race in naval arma-
ments. What, then, is the British
attitude?"
The New Statesman observes, "in
the long run, to recognize Manchou-
kuo and to look for friendship with
Japan at the risk of deterioration
with the United States would prove q
foolish and tragic blunder."
The suggestion, made by member
of the Federation of British Industries
Commission to Manchuria, that Great
Britain might renew her alliance with
Japan, has been strenuously denied on
behalf of the British government.
II it is true that there was ever
a movement within the cabinet In
the direction indicated, it has been ef-
fectively scotched. Japan's policy
of creating a cleavage in the Anglo
American front, in order that she may
proceed to further adventures in Asia,
is too obvious to deceive the British
public.
(copyright. 1934.)