Evening star., 1934-07-29
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

ing congressional election will
be very important goes with
Il out saying. The assertion
that IL will be the most i'm
portant in our history is not too far
fetched--provided It be understood
that the comparison Is with con-
gressional elections and not with
presidential elections.
Yet this coming November election
(of whole House of Representatives
and a little more than q third of the
Senate) will be Influenced, as most
elections are, by conditions having
little relation 10 the fundamental is
sue. Voters In November will be
moved In part by business conditions.
by what we speak of as the times"
II prices are rising and business In
creasing In activity. that condition
will tend, as always to help the party
in power. II there Is q feeling of dis
appointment about business the ten
dency will be. again as always. TO
blame the "ins."
Mr.. Roosevelt and the Democrats
in short have reached the point
where they can no longer continue to
capitalize the fact that hard times
were associated with the administra-
ton Of Mr.. Hoover They can no
longer ask the public to give them
power on the basis of what they
promise to do in the future. Whether
II is fair for the country to demand
fairly complete performance on the
part Of the Democrats at so early q
date is no matter. Every person
familiar with politics knows that the
mood of the voters in November will
be influenced by their feelings about
business.
Many Business Forecasts.
About the state of business during
the coming few months until the No
vember election there are many fore
casts. One that interests me much
was put out by two teachers in the
New York State College OF Agricul-
ture, at Cornell University, Ithaca,
N. Y. The two teachers are George
F. Warren and r. A. Pearson. Prof.
Warren has come to be q familiar
name before the public by reason Of
his association with President Roose-
velt's gold policy. The theory-I hope
I state 1t correctly-is that increas-
ing the price of gold results in in
crease Of prices Of all manner Of
goods. 1t was in pursuance of this
theory, and upon DR.. Warren's' rec
ommendation, that President Roose-
welt raised the price Of gold from
$20.e5 an ounce to a present $35 an
ounce. Prof. Warren-so we all un-
derstood at Washington - directed
the gradual elevation of price that
took place between last October and
last February. He had and still has
an Office in one of the Government
buildings. where he pores over charts
and columns of prices.
Whether Prof. Warren's gold theory
Is correct do not here undertake to
say. 1t has strong advocates and
violent critics. Omitting all question
| OF the soundness of the gold theory,
Prof. Warren Is likable and conf
dence- e-inspiring person. While he
has the word professor" before his
name. no one associates him with the
brain trust" He has no novel the
ories. about the organization Of soci-
ETY. that he wishes to press down on
America. He Is a solid, sure-footed.
plain American. believing in the pres
ent organization Of society, In the
right to hold private property and
the right to make profits. ,.sa
think that Prof. Warren and his
associate, Prof. Pearson. really know
the subject of prices. Certainly they
know the history of prices. have
seen Prof. Warren at his desk with
his enormous compilations of prices
over decades past, and his collec-
tions OF price data from every stand
ard present source. Whether Prof.
Warren's theory about gold is sound
do not know. But I should credit
him with extraordinary knowledge of
the history of prices.
Question Of Future.
Whether knowledge of the history
OF prices in the past Is adequate
equipment for Judgment about prices
In the future I do not know. In any
event, Profs. Warren and Pearson
nave put out a pamphlet, the current
issue OF Farm Economics, in which
they make some predictions, not
necessarily about the next few months,
but very confident as respects the
indefinite future.
Among other things, they quote,
with approval, certain statistics and
predictions about real estate: In one
city, st. Louis, during a recent month
from May z to June s, twelve hundred
vacant dwelling quarters we're re-
occupied. The total vacancies. once
$4,000. have been reduced to 1880.
"A housing shortage, more drastic
than the one of the early 192Os, is
inevitable" For farm products they
predict, by inference, higher prices:
for some farm products a violent
price rise, not necessarily during
the coming few months, but some
time in the reasonably near future.
II this sort of thing gets under way
before November the Democrats will
be helped.
One influence on the November
elections may come from abroad. In
stinctively and vaguely everybody as
sociates our innovations at home with
those that have been made in Ger
many, Italy and Russia. The asso-