The Waterbury Democrat., 1934-10-26
Future Of Foreign
 Trade Is Uncertain
Definite Change Undoubtedly Necessary COmpro- \ mise Between Free and Close Exchange Expedent

With the completion of negotia- tions for a reciprocal trade treaty with Cuba. which became effective last month. the attention of Am erican business men has been di- fected toward the subject of the future foreign trade policy of the United States, states the current issue of survey. published by the Guaranty Trust company of New York. The contemplated. negotia- fions with Colombia, Belgium. Brazil, Haiti, Sweden, and the five Central American republics are eagerly awaited in the hope that they may htrow more light on the Important question of the nations future policy with respect to for eign commerce.
 As far as the administrators at- , titude toward foreign loans is con cerned, the survey continue. it ap- pears unlikely that the government will make debt concessions and ex- tend credits and loans in considera- ton of trade advantages. Such a probability was indicated last month by the abrupt termination or the conference with Russia, when the Soviet officials, according to newspaper reports, is discussing the debt owed to the United States as . preliminary to trade agree ments, demanded a loan and trade credits.
 Outlook for New Trade Policy
 It is generally assumed that some definite change of policy will be made. The last congress authorized the president to conduct trade ne- gotiations with foreign countries Tor this express purpose. Further more, an alteration in policy was strongly suggested in a recent re- port to the president by George N. Peck, special adviser on foreign trade. In an elaborate statistical display. MT Peek showed that for eign tared and financial transac- tions of the United States since 1S96 have resulted in a large ex- port plusplus, which is now rep resented by loans by our govern ment to foreign governments and by private portfolio investments in d~fault. frozen short-term loans, and amounts due American export CTS but blocked by exchange rel strictions.
 His concluding recommendation vas: During these preliminary studies I have become convinced that a change is necessary in our approach to foreign trade &C., tivities and their relation to our domestic problems. We must de- veiop complete balance sheets be- tween this country and each of the countries with which we are now dealing or with fhich we proposed to deal."
 Dangers of Excessive .Nationalism
 Free exchange markets, ahder- ence to the gold standard, and sta bility of tariffs would seem to of- fer the surest and most effective means of developing the foreign commerce of the world. Neverthe- less If other nations resort to the treaty system, it will be necessary for the United States to do the sace in order not to be shut out of world markets. The alternative would be to adopt comparatively Isolated and self-contained econo- my. The United States is better adapted to such an economy than any other large nation and could, if necessary, resort to such a sys- tenn as a permanent policy. To do SOt AOWcVSEs WOulQ 6uIdIi QTaSllC readjustments in the immediate fu- ture. as well as great permanent sacrifices.
 Similarly, 1t would be possible for the group of nations known as the sterling bloc to form a relatively self-sufifcient economic unit. It is doubtful whether any other econ omic group could be established as a complete unit without including either the United States or some memb ITS of the sterling bloc. An ultra-nationalistic trend in this country would, therefore, have the effect of shutting out other import ant countries from sources of raw materials and from markets for their products that are vital to their economic welfare. Such an ar engagement would not only be re- pugnant to civilized notions of fair dealing but would engender ill-feel- ing that might lead to disastrous consequences.
 Immediate Need
 In the long run, either deliberate choice or unhappy experience will probably induce the nations of the world to avoid attempts at too rig i'd regulation of International tram sactions. But the immediate ques- tiOn of American foreign trade pol icy remains. Broadly speaking. there are two possible courses that the government may take. It may consider 1t more important to