Evening star., 1934-12-09
DEPRESSION in EUROPE,
ACCENTUATES WAR FEAR
Internal Economic Unrest May Set
Nations at Each Others ThrOats as
Peace Machinery Fails.


archduke precipitated the World War.
There are, moreover, many open pow
der magazines. Until the Saar voting
is over and the question finally dis
posed of, an act of violence in that
valley could bring about a Franco.
German clash. am myself optimistic
as to the Saar, although l confess
that view is not held by many of the
best-informed foreign diplomats at
the National Capital. because there
is no clash in principle between the
Germans and the French. The latter
do not want the territory; in fact,
not few would be positively alarmed
If the vote did not favor Germany.
Demand Pay for Mines.
What the French are uncompromis-
ing about is the question of payment
by Germany for the mines of the
Saar, which are French property.
Already Laval and Hitler are, how
ever, reported to have made some
preliminary agreement and there are
all forms Of economic, as well as
financial. arrangements which can be
made. The Germans want the terri
tory, the French want the money for
the mines. Germanys financial sit
uation makes actual money paymen.
impossible. but neither the French
government nor the German Reich
desires to war over the Saar Both
are more or less at the mercy of
an accident, and both are showing
a growing anxiety to prevent one.
But when one comes to the Austrian
situation the outlook is unpleasant
in the extreme. No one can disguise
the fact that economically and finan-
cially the present government at
Vienna has not been successful. 1t
is sustained by the bayonets of Mus
solini and has never possessed any
thing like a majority backing within
Austria. Disorder is at all times pos
sible. No explosion engineered by
Hitler is likely before the Saar ques-
tion is disposed of, but thereafter any,
thing may happen.
II Mussolini should march to de-
fend Austrian independence he would
beyond much doubt be attacked by
Yugoslavia and such an attack would
open the way TO German military
action. What Czechcslovakia and
Rumania would do under such circum-
stances is doubtful, while the position
of France would be excessively diff
cult. since Yugoslavia is an ally and
Germany and Italy both prospective
foes. As to the Soviet Union, while
it is moving nearer and nearer to
an open alliance with France, it has
no common frontier with Germany
and at best could only cooperate
through the air.
Poland Neutralized.
Germany has at least neutralized
Poland by her non-aggression pact. by
far the cleverest single bit of diplo-
macy since Hitler came to power. She
Is working desperately to bring about
an understanding with Yugoslavia, and
while no decisive progress has yet
been made in that direction, an even
tual understanding seems probable.
Today France probably would move to
the defense of CZechoslovakia against
a German attack and might find her
self compelled by her treaty obliga-
tions to support Yugoslavia against
Italy But her own domestic situation
is such that a crisis at home might at
any moment paralyze her action
abroad
The British patiently have no clear
policy. They are becoming more and
more disturbed by the growing menace
OF conflict on the continentrand less
and less ready to participate in it.
They would not support Italy in war
with Germany to maintain Austrian
independence, nor France in a war
with the Reich to defend Czechoslo-
vakia. Nor would they intervene in a
conflict between Italy and France or
between Yugoslavia and Italy. On the
other hand, they would not permit
Germany to invade France or Belgium
because they are profoundly alarmed
over the increase in German arma-
ments, particularly in the air
Like the Soviet Union, and unlike
any other continental state, the Brit
ish are, too. gravely disturbed over
japanese purposes. They recognize
that European war might provide
Japan with an admirable opportunity
to consolidate her control of Eastern
Asia, but they are equally well aware
that the European situation is so men,
acing that they cannot risk any quar-
rel with the Japanese which would tie
their hands in the Old World. British
pessimism, and even fatalism, as to
the continental situation is intensified
by an increasing sense Of impotence in
the face of mounting dangers.
May Preserve Peace.
Nevertheless, all British effort will
continue to be directed toward pre-
venting new war in Europe and since
no great power desires it in any pres
ent time, the British may be able to
exercise a decisive influence for peace
during the next II months. Thus.
reverting to the question presented at
the opening Of this article. it seems
to me that there is a very good chance
that war may be avoided during the
coming year and that if 1t does come
1t IS likely to result from accident
rather than deliberate design
Nevertheless, the fact still remains
obscure in some American minds
absorbed in domestic problems that
Europe Is moving unmiStakably toward
eventual conflict. No nation at the
moment is ready or willing for such
a conflict, but all are engaged in prep
arations and all are equally nervous
and apprehensive. Those whose mem
ories 60 back to the years between
Agadir and Serajevo will discover to-
day the same sinister signs of basic
unrest which existed two decades ago
and proved to be authentic presages
of conflict.
Today, moreover, there is new
pressure. The Rus
sian revolution and the great depres-
sion have together put to many
countries a social problem absent in
the pre-war era. Fascism and Ma
tional Socialism are themselves the
expression of the resolution of the
capitalistic classes in Italy and Ger
many to prevent the rise of Com
munism even at the cost of the de-
struction of democratic liberties. But
while Mussolini and Hitler, as the
agents Of capitalism, have seized
power and abolished democracy, they
have not succeeded In creating domes-