Evening star., 1934-07-29

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of 1888. A modern Rip Van Winkle
could have gone to sleep in January.
l93t. and slept through all the noise
in perfect confidence that he would
awaken In July, 1894, In a more pros
porous country. He could 90 to sleep
now and set his alarm for July, 1898,
with the same assurance.
Useful Features Of Program.
II we had been asked whether we
are better of than We would be II
there had never been recovery pro-
gram. that would be quite different
question. We should probably say.
"ask me another" There is no GER
tain answer. The alleviating and pSy-
Geological elements In the program
have been so useful and the speciAc
recovery efforts so harmful that a
balance Is difflcult TO strike.
Looking at the matter in the cold
light of reason, We should be COM
PEELED to say that we would be vastly
better of II the Government had not
done about half the things II has
done. II the last Hoover Congress
had provided. in 1882. for a contin-
uance OF the operations Of the r. F..
c., for loans 10 mortgaged farmers
and home owners. for Federal aid to
local charities when they were COM
pletely exhausted and for the sale OF
bonds when Federal revenues from
existing taxes proved inadequate, and
had then passed a law shutting down
the Government for two years from
January 1. 1888. the country would
probably be farther along than 1t
Is now.
In other words, II Washington had
been sealed up, so TO speak. like a con-
demned building. with the country
quarantined against the A. A. A., the
NJ r. A.. the p. w. A.. the G. w. A.,
the Bankhead act, the Frazier-Lemke
act. the banking act. the whole none
tary program and all the rest, the
country would be in somewhat better
economic state, with real wages q
little higher, production little
greater, investment o little more
active.
This Is not q reckless statement. It
Is made with full recognition OF the
emergency problems of 1888, the bank
suspension. the flight of gold and the
threat of social revolt. These could
have been met by existing law and
established agencies. There is some
reason to suspect that II the country
had been quarantined against pro-
spective new legislation these emer-
gencies would never have arisen. Ad-
mittedly the country would have
missed a salutary lesson in economics
and much entertainment, but we are
here discussing recovery, not tinkling
cymbals and sounding brass.
Recovery Worldwide.
The statistical indices point to re-
covery all over the world, faster In
some countries, slower in others, with
here and there a temporary reversal
of the trend, as in Germany. The
popular notion that there are three
kinds of lies--ordinary lies, damned
lies and statistics-is not quite COR
rect. Statistics never lie. But they
can be misunderstood, distorted or
deliberately misused.
Consider unemployment, for ex-
ample. The figures for unemploy-
ment, for certain technical reasons.
are never satisfactory. Let US esti-
mate that in the last year and a half
the unemployed have dropped from
about 100000 to about 1000 600.
1t happened that during this reduc-
ton Of distress the N. r.. A. was in
stalled. 1t also happens that over
the same period the figures show
an increase in Japanese beetles, nudist
colonies, the birth rate among fam
lilies on the Government charity
rolls and sales of tennis racquets.
To ascribe the increase in employ
ment to the N. r. A. without further
proof is as unsound as to ascribe
it to the increase in the beetles.
Unemployment has also declined rap
idly in England, but it would not
be fair to say that the reduction of
unemployment in that country is en-
tirely due to the fact that England
has no N. r. A. Probably N. r. A.