Evening star., 1934-12-22
SOUND RECOVERY
IN 1885 FORECAST
Edie, Economist, Calls Out
look Most Hopeful in
Past Six Years.
BY EDWARD c. STONE.

written by Lionel D. Edie, in which
the economist says he is more hopeful
for a realization of the beginning of
natural recovery in 1885 than he has
been at any time in the last six years.
At the same time DR.. Edie cautions
against expecting too rapid pace OF
improvement.
DR.. Edie declares that the drought
saved the day in 1884 and expresses
the belief that recovery will save the
day in 1885, Il think recovery will
come" he explains, mot in an ex
travagant way, not in way that is
pictured by super-optimists, who think
that overnight like flash everybody
can change his psychology, his temper
and his mental attitude. But I think
it will come gradually" He adds:
II do not subscribe to the theory
that we are headed inevitably for wild
runaway initiation in this country. 1
think it is beyond the power of any
one to say that it is inevitable, to say
that it is even probable"
DR.. Edie is awaiting the Presidents
budget message, due in the first week
in January. He guesses it will be a
budget message with a surprise on
the conservative side" Continuing, he
says:
Il think those people who today are
tempted to depart widely, radically and
violently from everything they have
hitherto considered conservative in the
investment of their savings are likely
to make very serious mistake. Those
oIhnrn RI tho litia,>oJ
tried and proved principles of diversi-
fication and safety will come out ahead
in meeting present-day problems.
1T is necessary to make a new
orientation of our minds and to recog-
nize that many of the things that
were true of the first 18 months of
the New Deal are no longer true
There is a mood that is less expert
mental, less disturbing. The leader
ship of the country is sobered with a
great responsibility. 1t is trying to
exercise that responsibility in the
direction of developing confidence,
old-fashioned confidence, the kind of
confidence that is the handspring Of
a natural business recovery"
Great Decrease in Hoarding.
Figures compiled by the Federal Re-
serve Board indicate that currency
boarding has decreased greatly, but
that a considerable amount of it still
exists. The reported circulation of
bills of denominations of $50 and more
on September 80 was about S600000,-
900 greater than in october, 1880,
before the boarding movement began.
1t is believed that the S655, 900 600 in
currency denominations of $50 and
more in circulation in October, 1880,
represented approximately a normal
amount and that the excess over that
sum now in circulation is held by
hoarders.. The movement reached its
peak in March, 1888, says the
Guaranty Trust Co., when the paper
currency outstanding in the larger
denominations amounted to more than
$1,000, 100000.
During the year ended September
80, the amount of money in circula-
tion-that is, outside of the Treasury
and the Federal Reserve banks-in-
creased by nearly S10O,0O0,00O. The
increase, however, was in currency of
small denominations and is believed
to reflect an expanded volume of gen.
eral business activity and higher
prices, rather than an increase in
boarding. Bills of larger denomina-
tions in circulation decreased by more
than $l00,0O0,000 during the II
months, the trust company review
adds.
Financial District Gossip.
Dividends will be paid in a few days
by Lincoln National Bank, the Bank
of Commerce & Savings, woodward &
Lothrop on both the common and
preferred stocks and by the Real
Estate Mortgage & Guaranty Corp.
These issues are all listed on the
Washington Stock Exchange and
are now being quoted without the
dividends. In case of sales, the pres
ent holders will get the dividends.
Baltimore reported a gain of 81
per cent in bank clearings during the
week ending December 10. Clearings
in Richmond were up 14.5 per cent
Atlanta reported a 20 per cent up
turn.
Retail sales in the Fifth Federal
Reserve District, including Washing
ton, maintained their exceptional
pace during the past week During
only one way did the weather slow
up trade.
Washington Chapter, American In
stitute of Banking, will hold its an
nual Christmas party at the Beaver
Dam Country Club tonight. An elab-
crate program has been arranged.
Over 1000 Loans Approved.
Up to December II, the industrial
advisory committees in the II Federal
Reserve districts had recommended
approval of 1,055 applications for in
dustrial loans amounting to S51 ,000,-
900. The Reserve banks had already
passed favorably on most of these re-
quests. 1t is expected that many of
the future applications can be taken
care of by the banks in the places
where the money is needed.
Arundel Corps latest earnings
reports reflect better conditions in
the building industry. In the first
II months of 1884 the sand, gravel
and contracting company earned
S1.46 a share against 81 cents last
year. November net was over $685.
600 against $4,000 year ago.
November earnings of the Capt.
tai Transit Co. will be reported to
the Public Utilities Commission very
shortly The report will reveal an
other big gain in earnings as traffic
was very heavy all the month. It
will also show the total net earnings
for the first full year under the
merger.
Liberty Votes Dividend.
Directors Of. the Liberty National
Bank have declared a dividend OF
S1.5O per share on the stock, payable
December 81, to shareholders of record
at the close of business December 81
Action was taken at the regular
monthly meeting, President Rolfe E
Boiling announced.
PARIS GARTER co. PLANS
Tn DfncT knNEDTICIMC