Evening star., 1934-08-26

the Marne will be celebrated
with appropriate ceremonies in
France and Great Britain.
This years anniversary will have spe-
cial significance because Germany
today finds herself in substantially
the same situation she was in after
her great defeat 20 years ago. With
that defeat began a siege of the Reich
which lasted for four years and was
marked by a series of spectacular
sorties, but which terminated-as
sieges must-by surrender to exhaus-
ton when no relieving force arrived.
The present siege of Germany dates
from the blood bath of June 80,
which definitely abolished all hope
of outside material aid. The invest
ment of the Reich became complete
when the murder of Dollfuss finally
removed the possibility of political
aid. After the June massacre British
public opinion at last became crystal
lized. After the July crime MuSsolini
at last made up his mind that ii
was impossible to do business with
Hitler. Since France had taken her
stand as far back as the Disarma-
ment Conferences early stages and
the Soviet Union on the morrow Of
the Hitler victory, the circle about
the Reich was closed.
Thrown on Own Resources.
Now in looking at a siege there
are two questions to be considered
the ability of the garrison to hold
out and the possibility of the arrival
of a relieving army. No relieving
army Is hereafter to be counted upon.
Germany is therefore thrown back
upon her own resources. To be sure
the present contest will be waged, not
by arms, but by financial and eco
nomic weapons, but this does not
in the smallest degree change its
character.
It is now the deliberate conviction
of the governments and peoples Of
Britain, France, Italy and the Soviet
Union that there can be no peace
In Europe and no concerted inter-
national effort to arrest the progress
of economic decay in Central Europe
while the Hitler regime continues in
control of the Reich. This means
in simple terms that Hitler can hope
for no help from abroad politically
which would enable him to gain pres
tige at home.
1t is also the settled conviction
OF the business and financial elements
in all the more important countries
and in practice this means in Britain,
the United States and France-that
any money lent or credits given to
Germany must only lead to new
losses. The conduct Of German policy
in the matter of debts in recent
months has demonstrated this and,
alike in London and New York, the
decision has been reached to take
no more risks.
Drought Has Been Felt.
Political and financial aid are thus
unavailable. What then is the eco
nomic situation? In normal times
the Germans can furnish about 80
per cent of their own food, although
they are very short in fats. But
this year there has been a partial
crop failure. due to drought. Already
there is pinch in potatoes-one of
the principal articles of diet-and
grains have also failed. The drought
has, too, inevitably affected the meat
situation, for the cattle have suf-
fered from lack Of fodder.
Germany must then buy abroad
considerable amounts of food in ex-
cess OF the usual purchases. In addi-
ton, she is without practically all of
the essential raw materials of industry.
She has coal in exportable quantities;
she has potash and chemicals. But
coal Is a drug on the market, potash
an insignificant detail. And since the
war the competition in chemicals has
largely reduced her once huge trade.
In practice, therefore, to get what
she needs abroad Germany must sell
what she makes in her factories and
foundrieS. But to do this she must
import all her cotton, copper, wool,
rubber, most Of her iron, her nickel
and other slightly less necessary arti-
cles. How is she to pay for these
things? During the last few years
she has paid for them by an excess of
the sales of her manufactured goods
over the purchase of raw materials.
This year. however, the surplus of her
purchases over her sales is mounting
with ominous rapidity.
Ration Foreign Purchases.
AS a consequence the past few
months have seen rapid extension of
the system of rationing foreign pur-
chases. The government is in effect
regulating the amount of various
things which the Germans buy abroad.
That means, on the one hand, that the
total bought is being reduced, and, on
the other, that purchases are being
restricted to essentials. But this does
not affect the basic situation, for most
of what Germany purchases anyway is
essential.
Germany's situation is further COM
plicated by the double fact that she
has no liquid capital herself and, in
addition, is heavily in debt to investors
in Britain, the United States, Holland
and Switzerland for sums already ad-
vanced. To get more loans she would
have to display capacity and willing
ness to pay back what she has already
borrowed, and no such ability or readi-
ness is discoverable.
France and Great Britain, both of
which are today buying much more
abroad than they sell, are able to
bridge the gap between imports and
exports by the return on their foreign
investments and by commercial bor-
rowing when necessary, for the credit
of both is commercially good. Ger
many has no foreign investments and
no credit. The United States is even