Evening star., 1934-07-22
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

forward vet more experiments. COn-
gress and the Democratic party will
BE- encouraged to back him up. and
We shall see another year or two of
the same sort of startling innovation
that we have been witnessing since
March I. 1898.
II. on the other hand the election
results seem unfavorable to the new
deal. If the outcome suggests a doubt
i'm the public mind. in that event Mr.
Roosevelt, who to an extraordinary
degree senses" waves Of public feel
ing and takes account of them. will
slow up. turn toward the right and be-
gin to put emphasis on a return to
normal conditions, the normal and
traditional ways Of government and Of
social organization.
A. A. A. Powers Example.
To be concrete. an illustration can
be found in the extensions of power
for A. A. A. which the administration
asked Congress to enact last Spring.
which were still pending when Con-
greSs adjourned, and which will be
before Congress again next Winter.
These extensions of power for A. A. A.
would. among other effects. give power
TO the Secretary OF Agriculture to ap-
ply to every farm crop the system Of
compulsory quotas for each farmer
that are now applied to cotton and
tobacco. If the election is favorable
to the new deal, the administration
will again urge these measures, and
Congress will interpret the action of
the country as mandate to do what
the President asks. But II the out
come suggests some public question
ing of the new deal, then the extern
sions of the A. A. A. power will be
quietly forgotten.
What is illustrated by the proposed
extension of power TO A. A. A. will take
place also with respect to NJ r. A. and
all along the line; II the election seems
favorable to the new deal, We shall
go on toward more and more regi-
mentation, more and more rigidity of
regulation. control. But If the out
come suggests doubt in the public
mind about the new deal, then there
will be retreat, quiet and unobtrusive
retreat, but retreat all the same.
Return Close to Impossible.
That, briefly and roughly stated is
the deep issue of this congressional
campaign. It's Importance is far out
of proportion to the brevity with which
it is here set down. Another forward
push of the new deal, another group
- frNKa lee. Il INs
made. would carry the country so far
toward a changed order of society that
return to the familiar American form
would become close to impossible.
The result of the coming campaign,
the Election day result. will be in
fluenced by the state of business, by
what we speak of as the times" !"
If the average man thinks times are
good and growing better, the ten
dency, as always in such cases, will
be to support the party in power,
But if, during October, there is a
feeling that business recovery is
disappointing, II we feel that we
have not got as far as either Mr.
RooSevelts assurances or our own
hopes have led us to expect, in that
case the tendency will be to vote
for change.
From this it will be realized that
Mr.. Roosevelt has as much to gain
as any business man by better times
during the three and a half months
between now and the election. Rising
prices Of farm crops and enlarged
activity Of business will bring ap-
proval Of the new deal Lack of these
will bring disapproval. II the in
herent merit of the measures Mr.
Roosevelt has brought about. or the
spirit in which these measures are
interpreted by the regulatory bodies
the President has set up-if either
or both of these carry the country
into a marked improvement of the
times, then Mr.. Roosevelt will share
politically in the better fortune which
the country will feel in business
way.
Depends Upon G. o. P. Victories.
In the congressional election in
November just what, in terms of
figures, will be interpreted as an
outcome favorable to the new deal.
or unfavorable to it?
1t is not matter of the Repub-
licans getting a majority-that is
impossible in the Senate and most
unlikely in the House. But short of
a Republican majority, there is q
figure somewhere, a certain number
of Republican victories. less than
which would mean approval by the
country of the new deal, more than
which would mean diSapproval.
First about the Senate: 1t is not
only impossible that the Republicans
should win control of the Senate, II
Is practically impossible that they
should make any gains. The reason
for this is the geographical distribu-
ton of the vacancies. OF the entire
Senate, one-third, 80, seats are to be
filled. (Plus or elections to fill
vacancies caused by death) Most of
the Democratic vacancies this year
occur in the South or otherwise in
territory strongly Democratic This
means that the Democrats can hardly
lose any of the Senate seats they now
hold. But among the Republican
vacancies, on the other hand, many
occur IN States normally doubtful
States which the Republicans might
readily lose-New Jersey, West Vir-
ginia. Ohio. Indiana. Rhode Island,
Missouri and Maryland.
Let us then dismiss the Senate.
There the Republicans can make no
material gains and may even make
losses. The reason will be mainly
geographical and the result will there
fore throw no worthwhile light on
the sentiment of the country.
House Elections Factor.
It is from the elections to the
House that We shall be able to make
deductions. The entire number of
seats, ABS. are to be filled. At present
there are 31O Democrats and lit
with Farmer-Labor
and vacancies).
That the Republicans will make
some gains is quite certain. 1t always
happens that when a tidal wave goes
as far as the 1892 one did in favor
of the Democrats there is an ebb in