The Washington times., 1934-06-13


in May. (TheSe
figures repre-.
sent percent A
ages of the av. W
erage for 1928 - Z.'>@< =
1929 LOWS nancy
When we allow for the addition
Of liquor sales, and for the fact
that prices were at least Is per
cent higher than last year. we
must conclude that the quantity
Of nonalcoholic goods sold was OIL
sharply.
The "spotty" character Of busi'
ness is emphasized by the fact
that New England and Pacltlc
Coast sales were only about the
same as last year, while Dallas,
Atlanta and Richmond sales ran
81 to "a per cent higher, retlectlng
Government doleS.
Second, we note that one ex-
planation of the setback in retail
sales is found in a decline in fac
tory employment.
we do not yet have figures Tor
the entire country, but the report
for New York State is in. and the
backwardness of the textile, lum-
her and automobile industries eX-
plain the trend-to say nothing OF
numerous strikes.
In New York, factory employ
ment fell IL per cent, which IS
considerably more than usual for
the season. The adjusted figure
is now TIA per cent Of the 1921
average, against 78.1 per cent IN
April.
New York factory payrolls also
declined for the first time this
year.
These facts, together with the
drought. are likely to bring re-
duced consumer purchasing power
and to affect retail trade untaVor-
ably.
One illustration Of consumer
buying is seen in the decline in
automobile sales and produc-
ton. Not only did registrations
in certain counties fall off, but
General Motors sales in May
made a poor showing.
The big company'S total sales,
in number of cars, suffered an
unusual decline in May. Fur
thermore, the sales to domestic
dealers were unusually high in
comparison with the sales made
bv such dealers to consumers, so
that dealer inventories increased
by a quantity unusually large for
the month. These inventories
have grown for five months in
succession, as they did in 1929.
Advance estimates Of May auto
bile production indicate a sharp
slump. Average daily output,
adjusted, seems likely to have
been about 80 per cent OF the
avearge of 1927, against 1925
per cent in April.
Iron and steel production, how
ever. gained largely in May. Steel
ingot production rose to about
20 per cent of the old normal,
and the pig iron output to about
SO per cent.
Two facts confront us in con-
Sldering this iron and steel
spurt. One is the anticipatOry
orders to fOrestalI strikes and
price mark-upS. The other is
the fact that the production
was high compared with ship
mentS. Thus the increased
steel-making activity is likely
to be temporary, because such
anticipatOry buying will end
soon and because stocks are &C
cumulating.
I would estimate that May
steel production was something
like Is per cent in excess of ship
ments during the month.
Finally, my P-V line shows
another decline, which indicates
that products have been pressing
on the markets of the country to
an extent greater than the de-
inand will stand. This barometer
now stands at about 81 against
1O4 in January.
On the whole, therefore, May
was a reactionary month-as the
stock market rightly forecast. It
looks as if the Administration may
have to do some more pump
printing"
The most encouraging fact
was the large increase in May
building permits. A large part Of
the gain was OccaSiOned by two
office buildings in New York
city, but outside New York there
was some gain, although May
normally shows a decrease.
Interstate Sales
Mount l8 Per Cent