Evening star., 1934-10-28
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

course of Americas destiny is
turning toward the political right.
i II this judgment is correct, the
change is a departure from what
has been the tendency for consider
ably more than a year.
The judgment that the country may
be turning backward from radical de-
parture has several proofs to support
it. One is the apparent determination
of California not to elect Mr.. Upton
Sinclair as Governor. I say apparent
determination" because the election is
more than a week ahead. And all that
I know about present probabilities in
California comes to me from friends in
the State, and from shrewd political
observers who have assayed the trend.
Assuming that California really does
reject Mr.. Sinclair on November 6, the
event will be a landmark. 1t will mark
the high tide, or rather the end Of
high tide, of the radical movement, so
far as that movement pervaded the
people.
Election Thought Certain.
When Mr.. Sinclair won, rather spec
tacularly, the Democratic nomination
on August %, it would have been nat
ural to expect him to win the election.
In such social movements as Mr.. Sim
clair represents, there is kind Of law
of progression. Not only does one step
lead to the next; one step tends to
make the next step inevitable. This
law of social change has been put in
words by many authors. One OF the
most compact and most easily under
stood phrasings of it is in the words
of an American economist, Mr.. Virgil
Jordan. He describes social change, of
the sort that has recently been under
way in America, as: "An automatic
process these measures have an
inevitable sequence one to another
The underlying ideas that are involved
in them grow one out of the other. and
in such a process, once set in motion,
one thing leads inevitably to another
and each step compels successive
step which carries us farther, un-
consciously and perhaps unwillingly,
toward the end"
1t is inherent in the same law that
once the process is interrupted. once
the chain is broken, the process tends
to come to an end.
BY the working of the law, as it was
working until recently, Sinclair's win
ming of the nomination in California
should have been followed by his win
ming of the election. Because this
law Of change is important, and be-
cause it Is working in many other
areas of American life besides Cali
fornia politics. it is useful to make
the reader understand it.
Suggests Chain of Events.
Using California as an illustration,
the sequence of automatic steps
should have run thus:
Because of large unemployment,
Mr.. Sinclair is nominated for Gov
ernor.
Because Mr.. Sinclair is nominated.
the individualist or capitalist form of
society begins to shrink: large en-
ployers who had contemplated enlarg-
ing their plants or erecting new ones
hold their projects in allegiance; cap
ital, frightened, begins to leave the
State.
Because large employers contract
their enterprises, and because capital
leaves the State, unemployment is in
creased.
Because unemployment is increased
there are more votes for Sinclair for
Governor in November"
That is the way the process Of So
cial change might have been expected
to work. If, now, this chain is broken,
it is not likely to renew itself, either
IN California or in the Nation.
The outcome in California will have
the highest possible bearing on what
happens throughout the country
thereafter. If Mr.. Sinclair should
win, then that shrinking of the old
system of private property and pri-
vate profit, that fright Of capital,
which occurred in California as
consequence of the nomination of Mr.
Sinclair in August, would be likely to
infect the whole country. A chill
would fall upon the business of the
Nation. This chill would result in in
creased unemployment. Increased un-
employment would result in greater
radicalism. And thus the self-per-
petuating tendency would be under
way again.
Holds Defeat Would Benefit.
On the other hand. if Mr.. Sinclair
loses in California, that may be taken
by the country as a signal that the
tide toward radicalism has reached its
highest point and begun to ebb. Such
signal would be tonic to industry
everywhere. We should then have,
working in the opposite and whole
some direction. the law of self-per-
petuating tendency. Instead of a
downward spiral We should have an
upward one. The new sequence would
run thus: Business would increase,
unemployment would be reduced, re-
duction of unemployment would re-
suit in greater purchasing power,
greater purchasing power would re-
suit in more businesS-and thus up
ward.
In short, the outcome of this local
State election in California might
turn out to have, in history. a place
analogous to the presidential election
of 1896 which, by the triumph of con-
servatism, marked the end of some
four years of depression and turned
the country on an upward path of
business which endured for a genera
ton.
Two Phases of Radicalism.
The Congress that will be elected on
November will not be radical. In
Congress radicalism can express itself
in two fields. One is monetary radi-
calism, imitation. The other is radi-
calism of the sort that carries the
country in the direction of funda-
mental change, which might be either
FaScism or modified Communism.
OF the latter type of radical thought
there is almost none in Congress. I
doubt if 10 Senators out of 96, or 90
Representatives out of 435 would con-
sciously vote to carry America INTO a
changed form of government or a
changed social system. That is, they