Evening star., 1934-10-21
BY FRANK III. SIMONDS.

lLSell, purely UOlllcoIiC dlloAA
Unlike the killing of Duca in Ru-
mania and Dollfuss in Austria, the
murder of the Yugoslavian monarch
had no immediate foreign cause. II
it is probably true that the Italians
have encouraged the Croat resistance
to the centralizing tactics Of the Serbs
no one will suspect Rome OF any
responsibility for the tragedy, where
as the part Berlin played directly
in the Austrian crime and indirectly
in the Rumanian is obvious.
The possible consequences, how
ever, of King Alexander's death can
be far reaching. For whatever else
is to be said of the murdered mon
arch he did represent a force which
held his qllarreling populations to-
gether. Now the Croats and the
Slovenes seem destined, on the one
hand, to suffer from new and even
more severe repression and, on the
other, to react violently against this
repression. The effect Of this domes-
tic struggle must be apparent.
With Alexander gone, the last real
obstacle to an association between
Berlin and Bulgaria is removed. Like
his father, who fought in the French
army in 1870, Alexander was fran
cophile His troops had fought with
the French in the Balkans, he had
himself been welcomed to Paris in
1916 when he was driven out of his
own kingdom by the central powers.
Thanks to him, too, France had made
various loans to the Yugoslavian state
in the postwar era and until recent
ly had been the guarantor of Yugo-
slav security against any Italian
menace.
Italy Must Look to Paris.
The rise of Hitler and the reopen
ing of the Austrian question has,
however, brought a gradual change
in Franco-Italian relations. Con-
fronted by the threat of a German
absorption of Austria, Italy has been
driven to lay aside all her old hopes
of exploiting Franco German differ
ences and to look to Paris for assist
ance against the German menace.
France has thus been compelled, in
order to meet an Italian gesture,
which she welcomed, to attempt to
restrain Yugoslav intransigeance Wis
avis Italy.
When she feared an Italian attack,
France was glad of the Yugoslav ally.
But when there was prospect of a
Franco Italian understanding, the
Yugoslav ally became an embarrass-
inent. But just as the Poles resented
the French friendship with the So
Riets, the Yugoslays criticized the ex-
tension of Franco Italian friendship.
They were already looking to Berlin
rather than Paris before the crime
in Marseille. In fact, it was in the
hope of finding some means of restor-
ing the old Serbian-F French partner
ship that the King set out upon his
unfortunate journey.
Now it would seem that with the
elimination of King Alexander those
who take his place will almost in
evitably turn to Berlin. And they
are just as certain to redouble their
hostility to Italy, for the single tie
that binds the Croats, the Slovenes
and the Serbs is common hatred
and fear of the Italians. Against
Italy both the Croats and the Slov-
enes would unquestionably fight and
while there was prospect of war
they would probably suspend their
Separatist campaign. Constant frlc-
tion and continued prospect of war
between Yugoslavia and Italy is thus
to be expected.
Disaster for Italy.
For Italy, accordingly, the murder
in Marseille must mean a disaster,
since she has now assumed the diff
cult and even dangerous pose OF de-
fender of the status quo in the
Danubian Basin. This position can
easily involve her in the occupation
of Austrian territory. In fact, fol-
lowing the assassination OF DR.. Doll
fuss such occupation seemed immi-
nent. But this in turn would also
gprecipitate a clash between Rome and
Belgrade because Serb troops, who
would also advance, might reach
Vienna first. Were Italy and Yugo-
slavia to come to grips, too, then the
way would be open for Hitler to oc-
.cupy Vienna and sieze Austria, for
there would be only Czechoslovakia
to oppose him.
For France the disappearance OF
Alexander probably means the col
rlapse of her whole system Of alliances
Z in Central Europe, which has been
ethe basis of her postwar supremacy
Son the continent. Poland has gone,
( lost irrevocably in all probability
.Yugoslavia is plainly going. The re-
scent crisis in Rumania and the resig-
nation of Titulescu, provoked by the
apparent drift of the King away from
the French toward the German camp
shows how the wind is blowing In
Bucharest. And with Yugoslavia lost
.and Rumania on the point OF deser-
ton. the Little Entente, so far as il
= might serve to support France, Is
patiently crumbling. When 1t, too
4 collapses. France will be thrown back
i upon the Rhine.
\ All these things are apt to happen
= less rapidly than one might expect.
yToday one can prophesy only what is
! likely to happen-not when it will
scome about. On the surface the tide
still seems to be running against the
3 Reich. The economic crisis in Ger
6 many is acute and can easily become
: intolerable by Spring. Before that
E time, too, the possibility of any serious
! German military venture abroad Is
slight-certainly not until the Saar
plebiscite is over. If, however, Hitler
can hold until Spring, which might
give him another reprieve, the Situa-
ton in Central Europe may undergo
swift and far-reaching change favor
able to the Reich. In the long run the
task of holding Germany back on the
Danube is wholly beyond the resources
of Italy alone. Nor is it at all likely
that she can depend upon any consid-
erable Austrian support. AS for Hun
gary, signs of a drift away from Rome
and toward Berlin can be discovered
in Budapest.
+ New Occupation Possible.
French money and Italian military
forces may be able to hold the existing
s situation together for little longer.
y The consequences of the Saar plebis-
cite may lead to a new French occupa-
ton of the Rhineland and thus to
some form of war Of prevention.
Germany may be smashed again be-
hu tho davo1a-