Evening star., 1934-12-30


"
commodities have been lessened by
the combination of dry weather and
the agricultural adjustment program
But we still have plenty for our
needs. There is a cotton carry-over
of around 100000 bales and we
need only 100000. We have stocks
Of tobacco of certain types three times
normal Wheat and cattle may be
brought down by Summer to close to
normal
The real surplus, however, does not
lie in these figures That real surplus
lies in those unnecessary acres which
spread before US, acres which, unless
a control program is kept in effect,
will be put under the plow and the
whole unhappy ordeal of unrestrained
production begun again.
Capital not being used elsewhere
will seek an outlet in the production
of wheat. corn and cotton, and thus
again start cycle of unbalance.
With industrially unemployed men
and money beckoned to the land by
any sign of opportunity. general ex-
pansion of farming can easily result
unless adjustment control is main
tanned.
Wheat producers are not at all out
of the shadow of surplus. Several mil
lion unnecessary wheat acres kept in
production since the war still exist,
and more nearly normal weather for
the 1885 crop is a reasonable proba-
bility. These possibilities can easily
give us a crop Of more than 100000
900 bushels in 1885. With limited
foreign outlets in sight and with nor
NAL yields We could have surplus
Of l50,000,000 bushels next Summer
and 300 100000 bushels in 1886. The
guiding and balancing hand of the
Agricultural Adjustment Administration
is needed to prevent the chaotic re-
suits of a combination of unemployed
capital and men, unnecessary wheat
land and fair growing weather and
disregard for consequences of expan-
sion.
Price Influences Acreage.
Similarly in the case of corn, rela-
lively favorable prices exert pressure
to expand acreage. Without produc-
ton control it is likely that all of
last years corn acreage and probably
1000, 900 to 10000, 900 more would be
harvested next year. Ordinarily this
would not be serious. But, bearing in
mind that hog and cattle numbers
have been greatly reduced by the 1884
low feed supply, relatively high prices
and the Agricultural Adjustment Ad-
ministration programs. what would
corn producers do with a large crop
in 1885?
The answer Is fairly obvious. The
live stock cycle would be started all
over again. Low feed prices in 1885,
36 would stimulate the production
of hogs, cattle and dairy products,
just as low feed prices always have
done. The conflict of interest between
grain and live stock producers would
be started anew.
The need for continued adjustment
of cotton production in the South also
is clear. 1t requires price of little
above 10 cents pound to start cotton
acreage expansion, and growers are
getting about IA cents, including bene-
fit payments. Such prices would be
sufficient to spread cotton production
over 10000 900 acres, instead of the
28,000,000 now in production. That
would mean a serious addition to the
10000 ,000-bale carry-over by next
Summer.
Safeguards Promised.
The program for the A. A. A. Of
the coming year provides a way to
hold a check on new surplus and, at
the same time. controlled expansion
protects against scarcity resulting
from unfavorable crop weather. And
as the program prepares to meet diff
ficulties 1886 may face, there is op-
portunity for consideration of new
safeguards along the road to a bet
ter standard of living.
Programs embracing these consid-
erations are now being discussed with
farmers and farm leaders. An effort
is being made to simplify the new
contracts for 1886 through which ad-
justments will be applied to the farms
in the next two years. Such contracts
might cover combination of several
commodities, such as feed grains or
small grains. or some combination of
feed crops and live stock. Growers may
desire freedom in determining the
proportion Of crops that they wish
to produce ard the use to which the
balance Of their land is put.
The new contracts may include a
new feature pointed toward the crea-
ton of the 'ever-normal granary."
From time to time during the last
20 years I have pointed out the ad-
visibility of maintaining from year
to year a constantly normal food
supply to protect the interests of the
public at large and agricultural sta
bility against crop failures.
Storage Plan Advanced.
A storage plan which will handle
larger carry-overs may be built into
the adjustment program as q begin
ming Of the "ever-normal granary"
Adjustment programs must be predi-
Gated on the assumption Of normal
yields, for we have not yet developed
an adequate technique for predicting
wide swings in weather. The farmer,
therefore, must be protected against
both bumper crops that depress his
prices and crop failures.
Similarly, it Is to the interest of
the general public that bumper crops
be prevented from creating Industrial
havoc through wiping out farm pur-
chasing power and that normal flow
of farm products, especially foods. be
assured. The 1884 drought emphasizes
the interest of the consumer and the
public at large in an adequate food
supply from year to year.
When agriculture was producing q
considerable proportion of its output |
for foreign markets the problem of !
shortage did not exist. In short crop
Continued on Paee 2, Column 2.