Evening star., 1934-04-22
BY BRUCE BARTON.

SHANGHAI (By MaiD If Japan
and Russia have war. which would
win?
Japan" say the Japanese militar-
lists, and some of the foreign obServ-
ers in Toxic agree.
Russia. say people recently in Mos
COW, who have travelled across Siberia
ard counted the trainloads of soldiers
and ammunition on their way to the
scene of possible conflict.
Between Japan and Russia are the
400 100000 Chinese What do they
think about it? The first answer is
that at least 399 900 900 think nothing
about it whatever.
China is still predominantly agricul-
tural Her millions are scattered in
as the United States. with poor roads
and no newspapers outside of the port
cities.
Loyalty SeIf-Centered.
The individual Chinese goes about
his affairs in the same way his anceS-
tors have for 1000 years. His interest
is not diffused over a variety of social
institutions. For his town, his prov
ince or the nation he has small con-
Germ; almost his whole capacity for
loyalty is concentrated in his family,
and his motto in matters not pertain
ing to his own personal welfare is:
Let George do it."
Give him a satisfactory living, and
by and large he cares not who makes
the laws or holds the offices, who
starts wars or wins them. Centuries
of experience have bequeathed him the
philosophic notion that all govern
ments are bad; that every ruler, what
ever his public platform or promises,
will find ways to increase taxes; and
that the less a man concerns himself
with politics or international affairs
the happier will be his journey through
this world.
A small, powerful minority has diff
ferent notions. With a member Of
this group I had a long, frank talk.
His identity cannot be revealed fur
ther than to say he is one of the half
dozen most influential men in China.
War Inevitable"
When I asked him whether Japan
and Russia would have war, he an
swered: 1T is inevitable" He said
Japan would be up against far diff
ferent situation than when she tackled
Russia before.
In the territory where the fighting
will take place Russia has 10000
soldiers" he went on. They are well
equipped, highly trained and aching
to go. In fact, their enthusiasm has
been raised to SO high pitch that If
they are not ordered forward, there
is real danger they may take the sit
uation into their own hands.
In Vladivostok are at least dozen
submarines Russia has transported
overland in sections and assembled.
Most important, Russia has between
six and seven hundred airplanes and
bombers, with plenty of fuel and am
munition and a cruising radius suff1-
cient to take them over the cities
| where are concentrated more than
100000 japanese.
Planes Are Nightmare.
"Tokio would be bombed, as would
Osaka, the Pittsburgh of Japan, and
Nagoya, Yokohama and Kobe. Whether
| they would be destroyed is something
no one can predict, for the present.
| day airplane has never been given its
| full test in war. But these hundreds
of airplanes are nightmare to Japan.
"She does not want to hear their
| motors throbbing over her cities. she
does not want to fight now. Her
army is not fully modernized. We
saw it at Shanghai and discovered
that her generals had not yet learned
the lessons Of the Great War. The
tactics were those of the Germans IN
| 1914-mass attack.
"The little punitive expedition the
Japanese expected to be simple op-
Grafton, ending in easy victory, de-
veloped into a crude,s blunderlng
slaughter of innocent farmers and
destruction of civilian property. There
was no glory at Chapel, and the jap
anese know it.
! They do not underestimate Russia's
| strength. They would like time to get
| themselves in shape, to consolidate
their position in Manchukuo, to
strengthen their military and financial
positions.
Expects Struggle Soon.
But dare they take the time? Will
not Russia's strength increase even
! faster than their own? am one who
expects the struggle will come soon,
possibly this Fall, and that Japan will
lose"
| So spoke one of the wisest and most
/ powerful of the Chinese. Perhaps his
wish is father to the thought. He was
perfectly frank in saying the SYM
pathies of his government would be
with the Russians. China would try
to remain neutral. he said, but neu-
trality would be difficult.
China has several hundred thou
sands, some say million, men under
arms, and her recent progress in the
air has been tremendous. Would
Japan have to reckon these forces
among her active foes? Is some un-
| derstanding being worked out even