Evening star., 1934-12-16
CONTINUED DEPRESSION
HELD o. p. HOPE In 80
Roosevelt Is Conceded Victory if Re.
covery Becomes Apparent Within
Next Is Months.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.


about what to do with the
- party are merely bubbles break
ing on the surface Of politics.
The tides beneath are something else
again-something not fully under
stood, neither by the rival Republican
leaders nor by any one else. If any
one is rash enough to think he knows
what is going on in the deeps of those
influences and forces which express
themselves in political parties and
political movements, let the rash one
set himself simple test. Let him look
forward and try to set down on paper
what he thinks the political lineup in
1886 will be. I doubt If any person can
forecast 1886 successfully-not even
Franklin D. Roosevelt, who will have
much power to make 1886 what he
wishes it to be.
True, the time ahead is not long,
less than % months until the Presi-
Dental election of November, 1886, and
only about 18 months until the time
when the political parties nominate
their presidential candidates. One can
safely. I think, be daring enough to
go that far, and say there will be a
presidential election in 1886 as usual.
Even the most cautious and the most
puzzled can safely go that far. But
not much farther We may have, by
1885, surprising developments in the
way of new parties and otherwise.
Roosevelt Main Personality.
In determining what the political
T4,-@ - xx,.D l.
tent personality is Mr.. Roosevelt
Apart from personalities the most po-
tent influence Is the state of the
times-"the times" in the sense OF
whether recovery has come. If by
1886 recovery is here, especially if il
has come without any material de-
parture from traditional American
principles-in that event the renomi-
nation of MIR. Roosevelt by the Demo-
Gratis and his reelection by the coun-
try will be so convincingly probable
that other parties and factors will not
matter much. Gratitude for recovery
would be so dominating an influence
on the public emotion that Mr.
Roosevelt would be retained in the
White House more surely than for ex-
William Mckinley in 1900. The graft
tude for recovery would be so strong
that 1t would not take much account
of just how the recovery came about
The restoration might be wholly or
mainly the fruit of natural forces
recovery whenever it comes is likely to
be that. But the man in the White
House and the party in power would
be given the credit for good times, -
as has often happened before.
II, however, recovery has not come
by 1885, or If it has not come in thor
oughly convincing form-in that
event Mr.. Roosevelt would probably
have rough sailing, and there would
be other developments. If 1886 should
duplicate the industrial conditions of
1884, Mr.. Roosevelt and the Demo-
Gratis would not come through as hap
PLY as they just have. The months
of the 1884 campaign, recently closed,
were, as respects recovery, unhappy.
Not only had substantial recovery
failed to enthusiastically, those were
months of slump, of recession from a
tentative recovery of some months be-
fore which, about last June and July,
slowed down-but the country was
still under the terror Of the memory
of the drastic depression a few years
before. They still thought of Presi-
dent Roosevelt as the symbol of hope
and most Of the country was willing
and happy to vote to keep him at the
helm.
Radical Movement Seen.
But that would not be duplicated in
1885. If in that year recovery has not
arrived, the country will be likely to
conclude that Mr.. Roosevelt and the
Democrats do not know how to bring
1t. From that condition, II 1t should
exist, some other consequences would
arise. The Republicans and the con-
servatives would take heart. That
would be one result. But there would
be others, some of them disturbing.
Radical movements would prosper.
If 1885 should be a year of con-
tinued deep depression, Mr.. Roosevelt
and the Democrats can hardly hope to
stay In power. The conservatives will
be against him as a matter of course;
and the conservatives are close to half
the entire electorate-the Republican
vote last month was about As per cent
of the whole. And, again assuming that
1886 should be a year of continued
deep depression, Mr.. Roosevelt and
the Democrats cannot hope to win
by any degree of concession to the
extreme left. However far Mr.. RooSe-
welt might be willing to go in radi-
calism, others would 60 farther. To
"out-radical' Mr.. Roosevelt is already
the purpose and plan OF the leaders
of radical thought.
In short, If recovery is not here by
1886, If we are still about where We
now are, in that event what is now
the Democratic party would be dimin-
ished by formidable subtractions made
up Of extreme radicals.
Radical Parties Formidable.
The radical parties and movements
In the United States, existing or lat
ent, are more formidable than is
commonly realized. In California last
month Socialist, Mr.. Upton Sinclair,
got roughly 850,000 votes. True, Mr..
Sinclair was running on the Demo-
cratic ticket and no doubt was the
beneficiary of many votes that he
would not have gotten had he been
running avowedly as Socialist. Ad-
mitting that qualification, neverthe-
less 850,000 votes is about 212 per
cent Of the total-and Mr. Sinclair's
850000 were all cast in one State.
Does any one doubt that if 1886
should be as unhappy year as re-
spects revival of industry as 1884 was
does any one doubt that Mr.. Sim
clair and his E. P. l. C. would spread
from California and get an immense
vote on a countrywide basis.
In Minnesota last month a radical
party. the Farmer-Labor, got about
two-thirds of a million votes. Here
again a radical party running in only
one State got about per cent of the
total vote of the whole country. The
Farmer-Labor party platform was
about as radical as possible; it called
directly for the abolition of capital
ism and was, in effect, largely COM