The Washington times., 1934-07-19

near LIAG CIl1 Va -: "a
April. Then s s
came the bank
insurance act '''<S''N
on June 13. Lewis Haney
MIRA was enacted on the follow
ing day.
Finally, the London economic
conference was wrecked, and 1T
was announced that the dollar
would not be stabilized on June
10.
Thus we may date the new deal
as a working scheme from June
1888. And if we want to find out
what effect it has had upon busi-
ness, we must measure from that
time.
Certainly there is no sense in
measuring from March 1888. At
that time no one knew what the
deal was to be.
Low Mark Hit
AS we look back over the last
two years, we see the following
picture. Business and industrial
activity hit their approximate
low level about the middle OF
1892. While the old deal was
still in effect. This was about
the time when the Lausanne
Settlement" was announced. and
the open market operations of
the reserve banks were then
stepped up.
There followed an upturn,
which lasted a few months to
about the time that Mr.. RooSe-
velt's election was conceded.
Crash Marked Low
Then business turned hesitant,
receded until the bank crash of
March, 1888. At this time, it ap-
proximated the 1882 low.
The first action of the present
Administration was to debase our
currency and adopt inflationary
measures. The gold standard
was abandoned. The Thomas in.
flation amendment was adopted.
The gold clauses in bonds were
repudiated.
Squirt Not New Deal
These measures promptly pro-
duced pre-inflation boom, as
people rushed to get rid of money
and buy commodities and stocks.
But this squirt was not the New
Deal. 1t was in anticipation of in
flation. The new dealers them
selves would be the last to admit
their program is merely that.
In fact, the real New Deal, with
its emphasis upon redistribution
Of income, Government partner
ship in business, social planning,
and a more abundant life, has
tended to keep initiation in check.
It has been as much deflationary
as inflationary. If it stands for
effective initiation, it has been it's
own worst enemy-by destroying
business confidence.
"Priming the Pump"
So business slumped from the
first inflationary squirt, falling
sharply from July to November,
1888. Then the new dealers re-
sorted to the broad and easy way
Of Government spending, under
the slogan of Printing the Pump"
Then came the CWA and the TO-
billion-dollar program.
This brought another squirt be-
tween last December and May this
year-a squirt based almost en-
tirely upon Government spending,
aided by the new liquor business
and growing belief in the inevita-
bility of initiation.
Business Less Active
The outstanding fact is that
there has been no general busi-
ness recovery in the past IL
months, In short, there has been
no general gain since the New
Deal program of regulation and
reform went into effect, and peo-
ple had to brush up on their al
phabets. The most important
business measurements show that
business is now less active than it
was a year ago. It is devaStat-
ing fact that most factory workers,
after buying necessary food, have
less to spend now that they did
IL months ago. I believe that la
Dor and farmers are more discon-
tented than then. Certainly bust
ness men are more uncertain and
less hopeful.
We must measure from last
June, not March. So where is the
progress since the real beginning
of the New Deal business pro-
gram? What is there to look
forward to except more initiation?