Evening star., 1934-09-30
BUSINESS looks
| NOW TO OCTOBER
| FOR FALL UPTURN
Retail Sales Still Ahead of
1888, but Heavy In
dustries Lag.
UNEMPL LOYMENT REMAINS
AT AUGUST, 1888, MARK
Delay in Recovery Brings Pres
sure for Change in Policies
of Administration.
BY CHARLES E. SPEARE.

BY CHARLES E. SPEARE.
Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, September 29.-The
month of September ends with the
early promises of a business revival
unreahzed, but with strong hope for
better results in october.
The average price of common stocks
does not vary great deal from that a
month ago. Speculative corporation
bonds also are about where they were
at the end of August. On the other
hand. higher grade issues and Gov
ernment loans show a loss.
There has been a moderate decline
during the month in the index price
of commodities, which reached their
top August 90, when they were 80
points above the range in January.
Iron and steel production moved slowly
forward in the latter part OF Septem-
ber, but, at the same time, the output
of electric power showed unfavorable
comparison with this season in 1888.
The situation remains as it has been
for some months, with retail trade
running ahead of the turnover last
year, while the heavy industries are
backward Consequently, unemploy-
ment stands about where it was in
August. 1893. on the basis of the A.
F. of L. figures.
Business Urges Action.
The delay in business recovery has
brought pressure on the admlnlstra-
ton for measures that. by negatlon or
direct action will arouse the dormant
sections of the industrial world. In
recent weeks there has been a process
sion of leaders in trade to the Sum-
mer capital at Hyde Park. Their ef-
feet on President Roosevelt may be
apparent after his radio talk Sunday.
The resignation of Gen. johnson as
head of the N. R. A. is accepted as the
beginning of a more conciliatory at
titude toward business and permission
to it to manage its affairs on rea-
sonable basis. Any thought, however.
that it will be allowed to return TO the
former free field of competition, OF
excessive profits and of insufficient re-
wards to labor may as well be aban-
doned.
Among industrialists and bankers
the belief this week that President
Roosevelt is about to remove some
of the irritating and restricting rule
governing business-in other WoroS,
that he is becoming more appreciative
of the handicaps under which pusl-
ness is now operating-is tempered
by the constant fear that the eXigen-
cies of the relief and recovery situa-
ton will eventually compel greater
degree of credit imitation.
There is much vague talk OF
central bank to take the place OF
the private banks in financing the
Treasury loans required by the Gov
ernment program:
At no time since the Spring OF 1888
has there been as much discussion IN
Wall Street of imitation and its con-
sequences as now. 1t may be said
that this is one of the effects OF
low state of morale in the financial
district reached after months OF busl-
ness starvation. Nevertheless, 1t has
a visible effect on speculative and in
vestment sentiment, though little
sign of it is to be seen in the move
ments of those securities most likely
to be affected by imitation.
Imitation Drive Unheeded.
There is. for instance, no decided
preference for common stocks such as
prevailed a year ago. The public is
no more infation-conscious today
than it was then. It's operations are
still predicated on earnings and in
come, following the traditional meth
cd of arriving at values. While there
has been a reaction in high-grade
corporation bonds and in Treasury
issues, this has not been in excess OF
movements of similar nature in the
past Is months.
The dollar has been steadier
abroad, as less fear of the status of
American currency has been eX-
pressed. The rise in August exports
has aided; also the understanding that
discussions of currency stabilization
are in prospect 1t is known that
these would now be welcomed by the
Treasury Department.
The fact is that those who expect
to see higher prices for common stocks
in October base their conclusion on
an expansion in business, both retail
and wholesale; on some Improvement
in the durable industries, in the ben
efits to be obtained by such develop
ments as the coordination of reil-
road operations through the new gen.
eral staff, and on several recent Incl
dents which suggest a more liberal
policy toward the operating units OF
the power and light companies. The
fact, also, that the drought has been
broken and the income of farmers is
81 600, 100000 greater than last year
modifies the effect Of the trade SLOW
down that began in June, while
calmer labor situation adds to the gen.
eral effort to be cheerful.
Healthy Market Situation.
These conditions make for broad
ening out of markets, irrespective CT
imitation propaganda. 1t is significant
that the small holders of stocks have
not been selling them as they declined
recently. Not in years have there been
so few transfers going through the
books of the financial Offices Of Amer
lean corporations.
Recent figures showing that trading
in Government bonds in the first
eight months of this year exceeded by
five times the total of all corporation
securities then dealt in on the New
York Stock Exchange give an idea Of
the degree to which the investment
business has settled down to either a
cash basis or one in which only the
superior types of paper are involved
This writer does not subscribe to the
John Flynn doctrine that there should
be no speculation in securities. Spec
ulation is normal and legitimate I'D to
a certain point. There control should
be exercised.
There has been no little gambling