Evening star., 1933-08-06
BY ALBIN E. JOHNSON.

T>OKIO.-Despite the fact that
Japan speaks loudly of peace
and really devoutly wishes for
i it-there is a deep-seated con-
viction in both official and un-
official circles that war with some one
or other lies just around the corner.
The political aftermath Of Tokio's
withdrawal from the League, which
took place as the climax of a. year of
political upheaval AID nationalistic
fervor. is b ginning to make itself felt.
1t was easy for Japan to cut loose from
the rest Of the world and defy world
public opinion. especially at a time
when most countries were busily en-
gagged fighting the depression and eco
nomic and financial crises. 1t was even
easier in view of the fact that imitation
and war psychology had brought about
temporary, If not actually fictitious,
domestic prosperity.
Now, with soberer moments at hand,
serious minded Japanese are wondering
how the nation can resume its position
in the international concert, and at the
same time retain the advantages which
its temporary distraction undoubtedly
gained for it. There are signs on the
international horizon which are causing
Japan great concern. Two of particular
importance are the British tariff war
against japanese trade In India, Aus
tralia, South Africa and the South Seas,
and the recent decision of the United
States to build its Navy up to treaty
strength.
A third factor which Is a source Of
apprehension is the diplomacy Of Soviet
Russia. Restoration of Anglo Russian
trade relations and negotiations for dip
lomatic relations with the United
States, as well as Russian military ac-
tivitieS in Siberia, are viewed with
alarm. So delicate Is the situation that
one Of the highest japanese army Off
cials only few days ago privately said
that unless Soviet military prepara-
tions at Vladivostok ceases, war is in
evitable." Hardly a day passes when
there IS not some sort Of incident"
over fishing rights. Manchurian from
tier and railway claims, etc.
China's New Policy.
China's new policy also is distracting.
So long as the Chinese continued their
tragically pathetic efforts to resist jap
anese invasion, both in Mongolia and
below the Great Wall, the japanese
were not worried. Now that Nanking
has ceased futile resistance and Is con-
centrating upon strengthening the GEN.
trail government for Der Tag" the
japanese are at loss as to just what
they should do. Chinese loans, foated
in the United States and Europe, are
an enigma to Japan. Toxic cannot
understand why foreign capital SHES al
coming to Japan and Manchukuo, yet
is going into China proper. One thing
that Japan does not want-despite the
fact that she has repeatedly advocated
its a strong and united China. She
| wants an orderly and peaceful, but
militarily impotent China. She does
not want China which might be able
to contest the status quo.
The determination of Washington tc
build up the American Navy and then
if desirable, talk about limitation or re-
duction in 1886, has brought about two
reactions in Japan. The first is that
of the military, who are demanding in
tensif1cation of Japan's naval construc-
ton program Immediately, and strong
stand for a change in the Washington
and London ratios when the confer
! ence meets again in 1896.
In other circles-especially the for
eign Office and big business-there is a
growing demand for an understand
ing" with the United States. A naval
ornaments race and commercial rival
ries would be suicidal for Japan in the
final outcome, business men and diplo-
mats argue. Financially, Toxic cannot
stand the pace. Her budget already is
well-nigh unbearable and this year will
show a deficit of more than 10000 ,000,-
coo yen. Furthermore, this group be-
lieves that an Anglo-American front
against Japan, with Russia and China
hostile, will retard Japan's progress for
generations, If it does not effectually
end her aspirations to dominate in Asia
The Roosevelt naval program is in
terpreted in some quarters as military
pressure" by the United States against
Japan because of her refusal to with
draw from Manchuria Britain's trade