Evening star., 1933-05-21

THIS article is written from what
Is locally known as the Deep
South. That contact has re-
i vealed unmistakably the interest
ing fact that in the regions
through which 7 have travelled there is
an unquestionable shift in public opin-
ion in the matter of the war debts.
Doubtless it would be easy to exag-
gerate the extent of the change, yet the
universal testimony is that the Presi-
dent could, if he chose, enlist tre-
mendous popular support for any policy
of debt revision however drastic which
he might champion, and Congress would
find it unpopular to oppose Mr.. Roose-
velt even on that issue.
1t is, moreover, interesting to me to
observe the fashion in which American
public opinion in the matter Of the
debts is following the course Of the
French about reparations. For more
than 10 years both branches of the
French Parliament were filled with sem
ators and deputies who found in the
, assertion Germany must pay" REIN
forced by the declaration Germany
can pay" one of the surest ways OF ap-
proach to the French voter. Neverthe-
less, year ago, when Herriot actually
cancelled the German reparations obli-
cations so far from encountering popu-
lar condemnation he met public opin-
ion already satisfied Of the real truth
that Germany would not pay and could
not be made to pay.
On the other hand, no less clear is
the conviction in the towns have Wis
tied that unless Mr.. Roosevelt himself,
by a direct and frank explanation of the
facts In the case, speaks to the people
as he has on two previous occasions.
there Is little chance that decisive
shift in popular opinion will come in
time or to an extent necessary to enable
American representatives at the London
Economic Conference to act effectively.
Exchange Of Goods Necessary.
Within recent days it has been my
good fortune to be in close contact first
with the European view as to debts set
forth by the experts and journalists
who accompanied Macdonald and Her
riot to Washington, and then with GER
tain fairly detached segments OF popu-
lar opinion in this country. AS to the
European view there Is no question.
Relatedly, but in the end completely,
European publics as well as politicians
have arrived at the perception that the
collection of war debts like that OF
reparations is a purely economic prob
lem, so far viewed only politically
Economically 1t was possible for
Germany to pay reparations, at least up
to a certain point. This only If the
nations who insisted upon payment were
prepared to open their markets TO Ger
man goods and consent to accept Ger
man services. But from the very outset
| the nations which insisted upon pay
ment-and Great Britain in particular
sought by every known device to prevent
| the inflow of German goods which
might compete with domestic.
For a certain time Germany was able
to pay In gold because she turned back
| into reparations what she borrowed
| from the United States through the sale
Of German securities both public and
private. Thus the reparations creditors
received their payments without the
necessity of absorbing German goods.
And in turn the United States received
these same payments from the war
debtors without having to absorb their
goods.
Europe is now fully aware of the fact
that when we stopped lending to Ger
many. Germany stopped paying them
| in gold or exchange. But then 1t was
less ready than before to take German
goods and so it did the only other
possible thing which was to cancel rep
dIdIlOl ny tIIc LduSdIluC sCtLlCIiCIll
| Today it seems still impossible to make
, q majority in Congress recognize that
the problem of debt payment-war and
private alike-is problem soluble only
by opening the American market to
foreign competitive goods or cancella-
ton.
Must Open Markets.
II we open our markets. sales of goods
by our debtors will provide them with
the means to discharge their obligations
II We cancel, the issue will be closed.
But so long as We sell more abroad than
we buy, rather than getting payment on
account of governmental or private
debts we shall only have to permit the
purchasers of our goods to add the diff
ference to our bill against them. They
have got to get possession of American
money to pay the debts and they can
only get possession of that money as
they sell us more than they buy from
us.
The fallacy of the talk about reducing
the sum of the debts lies of course In
the fact that such step only reduces
the amount the debtors cannot pay. 1t
Goes not open the way for any payment
whatsoever. The familiar claim that
the United States has already reduced
the European debts greatly is true but
irrelevant because we have also done
nothing to facilitate any payment. Con-
gress has just been passing a bill forbid
ding new foreign investments save under