Evening star., 1933-11-12
MANY NATIONS FEEL TIME
RIPE FOR SOUND OF DRUMS
Observer Declares Rising Levels of
Living Takes From Hearts of People
Ability to Resist War.

in 1895, she refused to recognize the
newborn United States as a free and
independent Nation, and she had a good
| deal to say that was sour about up-
starts, MODS, revolutionaries, and the
doctrine Of equality. The shoe, for IS
years past, has been on the other foot:
Catherine was no more suspicious and
afraid of new governments and revolu-
tionary doctrines, and no more willing
to go to great lengths in expressing dis
approval, than have been certain of our
own recent statesmen. That the posi-
tions of the two countries should have
been reversed is just one of those curl
GUS twists of history that happen on
occasion.
We were anxious enough to recog-
nize Russia in 1880 The Continental
Congress appointed Francis Dana of
Massachusetts, as Minister to Russia, but
when Dana arrived in ST. Petersburg,
he was refused a reception by Catherine.
He waited patiently but futilely for two
| years, then returned home 1t was not
until 1909 that official diplomatic rela-
tons were entered into by the United
States and Russia, Alexander / send
ing Andre Daschkof to Washington,
and President Madison appointing John
Quincy Adams to ST. Petersburg. A
commercial treaty between the two ma
| tions was not signed, however, until
1882.
Forgot Our Revolution.
Our own revolution seemed very far in
the past in 1917, when Russia erupted.
Perhaps the intervening century and a
third had hardened our arteries. We
were, it is true, quick to recognize the
provisional government of Kerensky
after the first revolution in March,
1917-in fact, we were the first Nation
to do SO, hesitating only seven days
after the Tsar had abdicated; but the
November revolution was something else
again. and it proved impossible for us
to transfer our affection from Kerensky
to Lenin and Trotsky. one vital diff
ference, of course. was that the Russian
government under KerenSky proposed to
continue fighting the war on the side
TrotSky Russia suddenly turned thumbs
down on all wars in general and the
World War in particular.
All that seems long, long time ago.
There is disposition to look upon
Soviet Russia today as one Of the more
stable governments of the world. The
other major powers have long since
established diplomatic and trade re-
lations with her BY devious means we
100, nave De6n Win nef, OUT the
handlcapS of undercover trade in the
modern world are many and obvious
And though we did provide Is per cent
of RusSia's imports in 1880, We pro-
vided only As per cent last year, drop
from $136,090000 to Sl6,000,000.
Now that the two governments are
discussing what their future relations
should be, and how new relationships
may be brought about, there will be a
4F oIN Two do
bilities. I think we ought to be utterly
realistic about 1t. Two points may be
made at once: First, that whatever Is
done is going to require time-month1
and years. not days and weeks; secOoC
that in the long run we can sell
Russia only if we let her sell to u
tension of credits, therefore, will dep
not on Russia's financial integrity
ability, for she has already earned
high rating in that respect, but Il
depend on our willingess to admit
sian goods in payment for Anne
goods.
Russia's Needs Are Many.
There is little question about
needs of Russia for machinery, for f.
and oils, for live stock, for cotton, ar
for many other goods. The questio
is, how much of Russia's mangane-
and lumber, of her sea food and fur
and minerals are we willing to impor1
Russia can pay for part CT her impor
| in newly-mined gold and in {
foreign exchange accumulated at +
torgsin stores, the stores at which goc.
are exchanged for foreign currenC
The Soviets obtained S65, 100000 +.
foreign currency last year at thes-
stores; the gold mines are expected to
produce 100000 900 worth of gold this
year, as against $50,000,000 last year
Add to these two sources the value OF
immigrant remittances from Russians
living in the United States, and the
total might amount to 100000, ,000
This much Russia has to pay for i'm
ports, in addition to the goods she is
able to exchange
The total value of Russia's exports
was around S300,000,000 in 1882; we
took $9,000,000 worth and sold some
thing over $12.000,000 worth. If our
exports were once more to reach the
level of $136,000,000 attained in 1880,
in what form could we get and in
what form would we be willing to re-
ceive pay for these exports? Certainly
admit only $2l 100000 worth of her
goods. That difference of $l15,000,000
in the import-export balance of the
two countries could not long continue.
But If it were possible for us to double
our imports of many productS-such as
furs and minerals and seafoods crude
drugs and fax and certain kinds of
timber-if this were possible, we might
run the import figure up to $50,000,000
without any injury to our own pro-
ducers; in addition, it is conceivable
that we might be allotted perhaps a
quarter of her supply Of ready cash or
al kI<as- IT,
port an export trade of somewhere be-
tween at least S1o0000,O00 And as
for the items we might export, the list
would certainly include cotton and lard
and tobacco, live stock for breeding pur-
poses and for meat, machinery of many
kinds, and long list of other things To
numerous to mention. That end of the
trade would be simple enough.
Figures Only Guesses.
The figures and estimates I have given
are, frankly, little better than guesses;
I should not want them taken for any
thing else: but they are close enough to
illumine the immediate possibilities. No
good can come of exaPgerating them
But it is important to remember that
nations do not live by trade alone.
Whether or not recognition Is de-
cided on in the coming negotiations, the
Russians nave once more become, Tor
Americans, people like ourselves rather
than outcasts. The stiff-necked atti-
tude we have maintained these last 16
years is not one which can be defended
on any ground of sense and nationality;
its abandonment may turn out to be
the least expensive and most valuable
item of this administrations foreign
policy. And If the conversations re-
suit in what the diplomats call recogni-
tion. 1t will be less a recognition of
Russia in any formal sense than the
reputation of an attitude which has
brought us no credit and much ridicule;
and the suspicion that our fear Of con-
tact must be grounded in weakness. If
we have something here of which we
have reason to be proud, we need fear
no contrast with anv other system And