Evening star., 1933-08-27
BY ROY v. PEEL,
Assistant Professor of Government. New
York University

pleIe lOTIl, dISUIIlellIS anu ISSUES are
beginning to appear in the newspapers,
and everywhere, in Office, factory, shop
and store, men drop their work to dis
cuss the prospects of fusion success. Is
it possible, they ask, that Tammany will
go down to defeat in November, and
that a new administration will take
charge of the city government on the
1st of January, 1894?
At first glance, it appears that the
Democratic party is as strongly in
trenched in New York as it has ever
been. In the entire city the Repub-
ucan party has only one representative
on the Board of Aldermen, one on the
Board Of Estimate and Apportionment
one in the State Senate and two in
the State Assembly. All of the five
county governments and four out of
the FIVE borough governments are COM
pletely under Democratic control. Even
| in the Offices of the national Govern
ment which have jurisdiction over New
York City there are only handful OF
Republicans. Obviously, the control OF
| the Democratic party over metropolitan
government falls short of 100 per cent
| BY the narrowest Of margins.
This almost exclusive possession OF all
elective officers within the city carries
with 1t the possession Of the highly
| paid exempt and the numerous un-
| classified positions in local. State, CITY,
county and borough governments.
Prestige With Dominating Party.
In any city. prestige certainly at
taches to the dominant party, and this
| Is doubly true in the case OF 1nStltu-
tions, like Tammany, which count tnelr
wears by decades. In every campaign
Tammany relies on the great weight OF
this historical prestige nearly as mucn
az It does in its extensive 1nnuence
over Jobs and contracts. 1t relies, fur-
ther. on the likelihood that 1t can con-
vert the social loyaltieS generated III
| the club houses (of which 1t has more
than 1000 in the city, into pohtlcal
| loyaaties. During campaigns ana IN tne
intervals between elections, Iammany
continuously stresses fealty to the or
oonization" It breaches and practices
Regularity In season and out OF season,
| and II has succeeded, so often tnaC II
almost appears to be a permanent pne-
nomenon. in identifying itself with the
city so that the average citizen mas
EdifhcuHv in dissociating the parry
from the greater community. These are
xj,e supports of Tammany's commences
;n the outcome of the Fall elections.
Ordinarily they are adequate Issues S
e-e relatively unhnportant 10 tfle o0oi
leaders of the Democratic party.
On the other hand, the prehnlliat:y -
,naneuvers of the Democratlc parry ~
the campaign OF 1883 molcaCe an -
tention to adjust botn progfai.s SaN @
n nreyious campaigns Tammany naS
resorted to the practice OF dlsarnllne
the opposition by yielding to REFORM
elements within the organization. 5s
tho redesignation Of Mayor Jonn
O,Brien. Tammany apparently discard.
ed this precedent. but the appointment
of George McAneny to the post OF sanl-
te+ion Commissioner, and the placing
IN the ticket of certain progressive
Democrats, may be interpreted as az
tenpts to conciliate that element ~
the party. Thus Tammany stanos on
it's record, as amended, and hopes u
win as It has won the great maJo'i'y
of previous local elections.
Conditions Favor Fusaonists.
The fusionists expect to accomplish
the victory which has been oenleo
ths,, Tor 30 wears because they believe
that present conditions in New VOTE
City are favorable to them. Althousn
Tannnlany enters the campaign WIN
Greater prestige. Fusion leaders point
tn the fact that history Is now on
their side. Every previous investlga-
tion comparable to that recently con-
Quoted by Judge Samuel Seabury mas
| resulted in the defeat Of Tammany
Hall Fusionists contend that there
exists a widespread dissatisfaction on
the part of the voters with the results
of Tammany government, and they IN
sist that this dissatisfaction WIN tne
administration will reveal itself IN
strong fusion vote on election Gay
Thev contend. further, that Tammany
has failed in its historic. junction OF
administering poor aid and lnemploy-
ment relief, and they point to the
complaints of those in distress as straWs
showing the way the political Wmds
are blowing. It is their belief that the
civil servants-school teachers. ponce
men. firemen and clerks-who nave
formerly constituted the main reliance
of Tammany. fear that their wages
will be reduced, or even not paid at all
It is well known that the bulk OF
the workers are enrolled In Tammany
but even they, the fusion leaders as
sert, are fearful lest the present CITY
administration should not be able te
complete public works projects, nor te
stimulate activity in the building trades
Finally. the fusion leaders observe thai
there exists an almost universal an
tagonism among merchants, laborers
professional men and other recipients
of uncertain income, which Is directed
against the holders of fixed incomes
All public officials and employees art
peculiar victims of this animoslty
Hence the fusion leaders predict thai
the voters will turn the Tammany lead
ers out of Office and put in their places
men who are pledged to eliminate sine
cures and to reduce the swollen sal
aries of political appointees. 1t Is be,
cause of these considerations tna'
fusion expects victory IN the Fall eiec'
tions.
Election Prospects.
Such IS the situation as 1t appear!
to the leaders of the two contend1n(
forces. What are the actual prospect!
for victory as they can be determined
from an inspection of the election re-
turns of past years? If fusion is tt
win, where will it obtain the votes anc
what districts can it expect to carry
What are its prospects Of drawing vot'
ers away from the Democratic and So
cialist parties? What are its prospect!
of getting out the maximum number o.
Republican voters? And, finally, ex
actly where and of what character are
the hitherto untapped sources of votinl
strength? If the fusion forces are K
win, they must Cd discover and acti
vate new sources of voting strength
ca draw a sufficient number of voter
from the Democratic party in order II
make up their normal voting deficiency
and 60 hold the Republican vote at it
maximum.
The answers to the questions outlines
abaye are found in the census report
!. and the election returns. First, let u
analyze the situation with respect t.
non voting. In 1880 the total popula
ton of New York City was $780, 446. B.
; 1882 it had increased to 7,218,0O0, &C
cnrdinp to the estimates of the Denart