Evening star., 1933-12-31
MAJOR EVENTS MARKED
WORLD AFFAIRS OF 1888
Most Important Year Since War Saw Rise
Of Hitler, Collapse of League and
Growth of Russia's Power.

SrtIudlly dIlu CIuSIl IllC sdIilcii1lS AiiiA
tary forces of the Reich. During this
time French superiority in heavy artil-
lery. in tanks and in the air, along
with that superiority in man power
assured by her allies. would-in the
judgment of most Informed military
observers-insure French triumph
During the same period, therefore,
Hitler must seek by all possible means
to avoid war. Germany's problem-hke
the Prussian problem after Jena in
without inviting war Of prevention
Thus. while Hitler cannot actually IN
sure Germany against a war of preven-
ton. his policy, If it Is In the smallest
degree intelligent, must be directed to-
ward reaSSuring the French and the
Czechs and avoiding any Austrian ad-
venture which might anger and ALLEVIATE
the Italians.
On the other hand, if Hitler is to re-
tain any prestige for his regime he
must insure the return of the Sarre
Basin to Germany either by plebiscite
or by private arrangement with France.
And 50 far the French have refused all
private arrangement because of their
belief that the effect of the German
revolution may have been to ALLEVIATE
the Catholic Jewish, Liberal, Socialist
and Communist elements in the popula-
ton, in which case plebiscite would
undoubtedly result in prepetuation of
the present situation.
No Frenchman imagines the people
of the Sarre will vote to join France
directly. Nevertheless they might vote
to continue under the direction of the
League. Economic as well as political
considerations would dictate such
action. because once they are excluded
from the French customs area they may
well be ruined. Sarre coal cannot COM
pete with SileSian or Ruhr in Germany,
and the loss of the French market
might prove fatal Hitler's repeated
demand for the return of the Sarre
without plebiscite at least suggests
anxiety on this point,
Nationalism Grows.
Some time between now and next
Spring it seems certain France and her
allies will have to make up their minds
whether to embark upon a war of pre-
vention. At the moment the existing
French government certainly would not
take the risks. But France is moving
rapidly toward a government of ma
tional concentration. The financial
situation almost inescapably calls for
d new uIllOIl OI pdIlleS anu the ell
trance of more conservative elements
But those elements are also national
iStic. And if France has a coalition
government in the Spring invasion of
the Rflineland cannot be excluded from
the realm of possibility
The issue will, think. be determined
largely by the course of Hitler. If he
keeps quiet, avoids new provocative
operations, renews his various peace
proposals and above all. does not rush
his rearmament program. French action
is unlikely. If he becomes violent
again, then I feel sure We shall have
an acute crisis by March or April and
may see a new war. And from now on
peace will be at the mercy of some in
cident which will arouse passions and
involve prestige.
Safely past next Autumn, however
one may hope for considerable pause.
Germany will not yet be ready, but her
preparations will be rapidly approach
ing point where an attack upon her
would be hazardous. OF course, when
the Germans undertake to reoccupy
and fortify the demilitarized zone of
the Rhine-as they must eventually
then a new and acute crisis must arise.
But that is still in the future. Thus.
all in all, next year promises to be
critical beyond exaggeration and war
while still unlikely-has to be reckoned
with as a possibility.
Where Russia Stands.
There remains the question of Rus
sia Today Russia stands decisively
with France and her allies against Ger
many. because Of the open rToClanla-
ton of German purpose to take Rus
sian territory for colonization and the
disclosure of German intrigueS in the
Ukraine Russia will not. however, un-
der any conceivable circumstance, join
France and her allies in an attack upon
Germany. She already has signed
treaties which insure Poland and Ru-
mania against all danger of stab in
the back if they engage in war upon
their western frontiers.
But Russia is not yet a positive FAC
tor in the European situation. Nor
can she become one so long as the sit
uation in the Far East remains obscure
and threatening. And while Russia Is
out OF the game, there is no reason for
the Germans to despair of ultimately
overcoming the present combination OF
force against them while France and
her allies are not backed by Italy or
Britain The immediate odds are
| against GeIiIdlly, Uul lIIIle lulIo WIN
her. for she will progressively arm and
already there are cracks in the wall of
her opponents, notably in the case OF
the Poles and the French.
One final word: Economic recovery
on a grand scale might easily abolish
the immediate danger of conflict. On
the ether hand continued depression
could easily hasten it. Despair is a
great force for war. Recovery would
certainly postpone, even if it could not
abolish. the prospect of conflict.
In the end the problem of peace or
war in the next year comes down to
two things: The French decision IN
the matter of war of prevention and
the Nazi policy in the face cf rising
French apprehension. Quite possibly
the Sarre will prove the decisive factor
Meantime 1893 has swept the boards
! clear of the German Republic, the
League Of Nations and the nisarma-
ment Conference. In a worG, 1t has
reduced to ruin the political labors OF
the Is postwar years and abolished the
hopes of permanent peace by collective
effort which those things represented,
(CopyriEht, 1g33D