The times-news. [volume] (Hendersonville, N.C.) 1927-current, 1933-11-29
PROBABILITY
LAW SOUGHT
Georgia University PROBES
ser Is Making Prolong-
ed Experiment

ATHENS. Ca, Nov. 29.-(UP)
An experiment with pennies 10
verify laws of probability which
may be used to predict with the
accuracy Of eclipse predictions"
cnything from the result Of a
presidential election to how many
doT biscuits will be sold in your
homo town next week reached the
helf-way mark here today.
Tie experiment, roughly equiv
alent to TOSSING a coin 100000
times to see how many times it
came down heads and how many
times it came down tails, is being
conducted by Professor Pope R.
Hill. who teaches mathematics to
the boys and giYl3 of the Univer-
sity o. Georgia.
Purpose of the work is to test
tie fundamental assumptions of
mathematical probability, which
underlio all science and all bust
ness" Professor Hill explains.
For the sake Of accuracy, he
draws pennies from a can instead
Of Tipping them. The can con-
tains 100 pennies dated 1919 and
another 100 dated 1920. carefully
paired according to weight. He
shakes the can. draws cut a pen
ny. records its date, puts it back
and starts all over again. He plans
to make 100000 Of these draws
by next June.
On his 5O.OOOth trial today,
Professor Hill had drawn 25,013
Of the 1920 date and 24,987 of
the 1919 date. This is what would
be expected, he said. but the
number of runs Of different
lengths showed some tendency to
deviate from supposed laws" For
instance. there were 80 runs OF
10 against a theoretical number
of "a and dozen runs Of II dou-
bled the theoretical number.
The professor is convinced that
the accepted probability laws,
which have been developed in
theory for 3 good manv years but
never before tested with determ-
med accuracy. orc roughly true,
and says that eff my experiment
brings out any differences they
will be in finer points but Of
enormous value TO science"
Professor Hill explains that in
surancc companies depend on
these laws of probability in con-
structing mortality tables, fixing
rates and determining reserves
needed.
Probability calculations can de-
terminc the number Of washing
machines that will be sold in your
city next year; the number Of
packages of dog biscuit a store
need secure weekly to meet the
calls for this commodity; your
chances of filling that inside
straight, or making the dice hit
seven.
Professor Hill is confident that
a careful study "would enable one
to know odds ranging from 2 to !
to 100 to on most big football
games played each year."
envy probability calculations
he said. "showed the chances for
Roosevelt's election as president
be 5000 to l biased on the Lit
erarv Digest polly and for repeal
of the Eighteenth amendment to
be 2,O0O.O0O,0O0 to l, but / have
hardly touched the possible pre-
diction achievements in such
fields.
an the future such predictions
NAV be made with the accuracy
of eclipse predictions. People who
compliment me on hitting it in
these predictions don't get the
point for they imply that l might
have missed. They do not realize
that such predictions are as math-
ematical as the multiplication ia
ble."
Professor Hill, who is 80 years
old and married. started his exper-
iment on Christmas day, 1926. he
works at it at odd moments IN
his office and gets tremendous
fun" out of it. While working, ne
concentrates on the accuracy OF
his reading and recording and
thinks as little as possible about
the rest Of the universe:
He works on a schedule OF eX-