The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1933-10-09

TRADE INCREASE
IS FELT OVER
ENTIRE WORLD
Worst of Slump Reached in
Summer of 1882, Sur
vey Shows.


BIZ Times Special
NEW YORK, Oct. 9-Since the
summer Of 1882, when the low point
of the world depression was reached,
there has been a marked improve
ment in business activity in the
principal industrial countries, ac-
companied by a recovery in world
prices Of staple commodities. This
is the general conclusion in respect
to world economic conditions and
trends presented in statement is
sued by the National Industrial
Conference Board.
The worldwide improvement, the
conference board finds, occurred
largely in the last four months of
1892 In 1888, business recovery con-
tinued through the month Of July.
Statistics for the month of August
are not yet available, and it is i'm
possible to say whether or not the
rest Of the world has experienced a
recession in business activity similar
to that which occurred in the United
States.
Low Point in 1892
Examination Of various business
indices, the conference board states,
shows that the low point Of the
world business depression was
reached in the summer of 1882. In
most countries business was at its
lowest ebb in the month of August
Index numbers of industrial pro-
duction in the United States, Great
Britain, Germany, France, Canada,
Belgium, and other countries
reached the low point in the middle
of 1882. Since that time there has
been a distinct improvement.
Coinciding with this Improvement
in business activity in the principal
industrial countries of the world,
there occurred a recovery in world
prices of raw materials and food
stuffs-wheat, sugar, coffee, cotton,
rubber, silk, tin, wool, hides and
leather. In the last quarter of 1882,
these prices again turned downward
but for the first time since 1929
prices Of most staple commodities at
the end of the year remained above
the low points for the year. The
decline in wholesale prices in prac-
ticallv all countries of the world was
either arrested or greatly slowed
down in the second half of 1882.
Volume Decline Halted
The decline in the volume and
the value of world trade was also
stopped in the last half of 1882,
while the League Of Nations index
of world prices of internationally
traded commodities moved in
horizontal direction. Security prices
either moved horizontally or turned
upward in the second half of the
year in all financial markets.
Restriction of bank credit, due to
the desire for increased liqu!dlty,
came to an end in the second half
of 1892. and eliminated one of the
powerful forces of dehation. Cen
trail bank rates of discount and open
market interest rates for short-term
funds were reduced to the lowest
levels since the World war. A ire
mendous volume of idle funds has
accumulated in the principal
financial centers and is available
to fiance an extensive business re-
vival.
The volume Of unemployment re-
manned high throughout 1882, but
the increase in unemployment was
stopped.
Debtor Nations Adjusted
The relations between creditor
and debtor countries we're funda-
mentally altered. The debtor ma
lions were able TO adjust their bal
ances of merchandise trade to the
situation created by the complete
cessation of international lending.
Practically without exception, the
debtor nations have converted large
import SURPRISES into considerable
export surpluses on merchandise
account.
This was accomplished through
a great reduction in the total VOL
ume and value of foreign trade,
imports having been reduced more
drastically than exports. The
creditor nations, on the other hand,
with the exception of the United
States, continued to maintain large
import SURPRISES, while the Amer
lean surplus of commodity exports
was drastically reduced. These
shifts in the balances of merchan-
disc trade prepared the ground for
a new movement of international
funds and facilitated a recovery of
prices.
Unaffected by Debts
In 1882. the problem of German
reparationS was eliminated from
the sphere of economics and poll
tics. The inter-allied debts to the
United States still are a political
factor. but to all intents and pur-
poses they may be regarded as non
existent, from the point of view Of
their influence on the balances of
international payments.
On the whole, the creditor debtor
relations have reached a stage
where the threat of new defaults
has largely disappeared and where
the question of refinancing and Of
making new arrangements with the
debtors deserves serious attention
on the part of the creditors. 1t
should be added that the position
of the debtor countries has been
materially improved by the de-
probation of the dollar and the
pound sterling.