Evening star., 1933-08-11
BUSINESS INDEXES
HELD MISLEADING
Comparisons MHh 1882
Lows Believed likely to Stir
Undue OptimisHi.
By GEORGE 7. HUGHES

Special Dispatch to The star.
NEW YORK. August 1L-In one I'M
portant respect the commonly accepted
indexes Of business activity at present
are unloading. That u because COM
parsons are being made with period
Of 1882, which covered the low Of the
depression, and gains made currently
over the same time o year ago are
not as SIGNIFICANT g they would other
wise be. The two best illustrations are
electric, power output and railway car
loadings.
Taking the electric statistics first,
output this year has shown an increase
over the corresponding periods year
ago for every week since that Of May
8. These increases started ct one-half
OF per cent and rose to 1854 per
cent for the week ended July is, while
for the week ended August S, the last
available, output was 1876 per cent
above that Of the same week In 1882
highly satisfactory showing on the
basis taken, but one which conceals
the fiattening out Of the 1888 pro-
duction curve.
In kilowatt hours 1888 output reached
its peak so far in the week ended
July 20, but the change from the two
previous weeks was negligible and there
was decrease IN the last week.
Turns to Car Loadings.
Now look at the car loading state
ments. Taking IL important roads, for
which reports are at hand, cars loaded
during the week ended August 5 In
creased 22.6 per cent over the same
week in 1882, and this compares with
. gain Of 21.2 per cent for the week
ended July 90. However, for these
same IL carriers actual loadings in
1888 fell from 230,663 cars in the
week Of July 40 to 222, ,89l cars in the
week Of August S.
There is nothing to be disturbed
about In any Of this, but 1t is in
order to sound q warning against undue
optimism. Compared with 1892 busi-
ness activity shows striking gains, but
when the reports for one Summer week
In 1888 are set down beside those of
the week before it becomes apparent
that all that is being done now is to
hold gains previously made. That Is
an achievement not to be belittled; 1t
does not justify relaxing Of effort
The fact that business revival Is sub
the attention of Wall Street rather
forcefully wheni the untitled tonnage
statement of the United States Steel
Corporation as Of July 81 appeared
with an unexpectedly large decrease
from the total at the end Of June. It
checked the rise in the stock market
in progress early in Thursdays session
and brought about an irregular reac-
ton.
Public Participation Light.
The market In its present stage is
almost exclusively professional affair
and Is quick to reflect the news, favor
able or otherwise. That portion of the
outside public which was shaken out"
in the July break is still out and fresh
recruits have yet to be secured. The
professional element. however, is hope
full of again attracting outside partici-
patton, and meanwhile it Is not bearish.
It hardly dares to be bearish when the
possibility remains Of an overnight
pronouncement on imitation from Wash
ington or Hyde Park
Arrangements have been made for
the transfer Of Stock Exchange men,
mership at a price of -$185, 600, which
compares with $4,000, the last pre-
vious transaction. A drop of SIS, 900 is
q stable decline. The $240, 900 sale
was made on July 10, when the big
break of that month was just begin
ming. What with the new margin re-
quirements and the prospect of Gov
eminent regulation, it looks as though
the business of buying and selling
securities might have q setback, too.
(Copyright, 1889