The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1933-12-28
DEATH RATE IN
1888 WILL HIT
ALL TIME LOW
Diseases of Youth Decline
But DegeneratiVe Ills
On Increase.

Un increase.
BY DR.. LOUIS I. DUBLIN
Past President. American Public Health
Association. Third vioe-President
and statistician. Metropolitan
Life Insurance Co
Copyright 1888 by Science service)
NEW YORK. Dec. 2S.-A year ago
I predicted that 1888 would in all
probability be a good health yea:
In spite Of a widespread influenza
epidemic in the first quarter Of the
year. and Of the continuation Of the
business depression, the year has
closed with what is probably the best
health record of all times. The NOR
tally figures for the population Of
the country as a whole are still in
complete, but such as are available
indicate that the death rate has
fallen again from the low Of the year
before.
The records Of the insurance COM
panies which are kept currently and
which cover a large fraction Of the
total population, are likewise very
promising that a new minimum has
been recorded. What are the pros
poets that 1884 will be equally or
even better for the public health?
Much. of course, depends upon our
good fortune as to epidemics. No
one can ever be certain about out
breaks Of influenza. A severe cpl
demic Of this condition would be
Immediately reflected in many
deaths and would reverse the gen.
eral trend.
No Flu Outbreak Expected
But based on what has occurred
in the past, the chances are that we
shall not suffer an influenza cpl
demic of any proportions in 1884.
Outbreaks of this disease have
shown a certain degree of period
icity, the high spots appearing every
third year. The last occurrence OF
influenza on a large scale appeared
late in 1882 and in early 1888, While
it would be hazardous to draw
sweeping conclusions from past &C.
currences. it is our judgment that
we shall not have a widespread
major outbreak of influenza in 1884
The other preventable diseases are
giving less and less trouble. Such
conditions as typhoid fever, diph-
liberia and the other communicable
diseases Of childhood are no longer
important causes of sickness and
death The chances are altogether
against their having a serious effect
on the health picture next year or
any other year. Control over them is
increasing and is becoming more
and mode effective.
White Plague Declining
Likewise tuberculosis should con-
tinue to decline as a major cause of
sickness and of death. Twelve years
ago, I hazarded the prediction that
tuberculosis mortality would decline
steadily and that by 1910 the rate
would reach forty deaths per 100000
of population. Many thought that
I was over-optimistic because the
rate was then close to 100 per 100,-
600. Nevertheless each year since
has shown that my assumption is
being realized. In 1884, the rate
should be somewhere around fifty
four per 100000 and the chances
are now better than ever that the
figure for 1910 will be below rather
than above 40.
1t should surprise no one that
under conditions of lower mortality
from the communicable diseases Of
early life there should be increased
mortality from the diseases Of late
middle life and old age. can see
little prospect of any improvement
during 1884 in the mortality rates
for diabetes. cancer and heart dis
ease. They have been taking
heavier toll year after year. Per-
haps that is, after all, as it should
be; and unless we discover ways Of
stretching the life span and I con-
slider this very improbable) more
and more people will pass out by
way Of the degenerative diseases Of
advanced life.
Auto Deaths Increase
But,Nin specializing about the pub
lie safety developments Of 1884. it
must be realized that the happy