Evening star., 1933-12-24
What of the Chance of War?

an actual treaty between the two
countries exists But, In these days
treaties don't mean much. The Ger
mans count ON Italy's support without
having anything In writing.
Future of Soviet Russia.
On the confines of this probable al
lance stands Russia; a Russia very
different from the one the world has
known since 1918.
In their desire to establish the fu-
ture OF the Soviet Republics on solid
foundations the leaders have shown a
good deal OF eagerneSs to re-enter the
concert of world powers.
Russia is too busy with her economic
and social rehabilitation problems to
desire war. Hence, her non-aggres-
sion pacts with all her European neigh
bors.
But Russia feels menaced In the Far
East; she feels that sooner or later
she VIII have to meet the japanese,
arms in hand, in order to protect her
only outlet on the Pacific, the Port
of Vladivostock
Vladivostock is more than a port to
Russia; it is the principal outlet for
siberia, a country capable of taking
care OF no less than 200,000,C00 inhab-
itants; country with immense wealth,
which has not yet been tapped.
The loss of her outlet to the Pacific
would mean the end Of grandiose
plan.
1t is for this reason that she con-
ceded anything the American Govern
ment demanded from her; American
recognition means the strengthening
OF her position In the Far East.
win Avoid Conflict.
But, it was made plain to the Rus
sian foreign commissar, Maxim Litvin-
on, that this country would not be-
come involved In any international
conflict: that the maximum she could
hope from her recognition by the
United States would be a moral sup
port IN case of crisis. That Is all
she expected from this country.
This non-committal promise Is not
sufficient. Russia has to find active
allies.
The French have been offering her
their friendship. An offer worth while
considering, but somewhat risky, the
Russians say, If the history of the past
is taken into consideration. They have
not said yes" and have not said mo-"
They are looking around
Soviets into some sort OF an alliance.
Russia Is thinking it over; Italy'S
friendship offers less danger Of an ac-
tual war. and they believe that close
relation with that Mediterranean
power might avert a war in Europe
But Italy's ally today is Germany, and
Russia does not know whether she
should join power so close to Ger
many.
For the time being, the relations be-
tween the U. S. S. r. and Germany are
cold. Hitler has committed a number
of diplomatic blunders which have
alienated Russia's friendship. The per-
secution Of the Jews, the suppression
OF the Communist party in Germany
and the expulsion of Soviet citizens
from Germany without any actual rea-
son have all contributed to an estrange-
ment between the two countries. But
there are no such fundamental causes
Of friction between Russia and Ger
many as exists between France and
Germany, or between France and Italy,
to make a reconciliation difficult.
Germany and Russia.
During Maxim Litvinoff's visit to
Italy it is reported that the question of
a possible rapprochement between Ger
many and Russia were discussed by the
Soviet commiSsar for foreign affairs and
Mussolini. Litvinoff was non-com-
initial, but has not refused. it is said.
the offer of II Duce to try and bring
Germany to her senses BY inducing
Hitler to change his policy toward Rus
sia. Since the recognition of the Soviet
by the United States, that country has
definitely entered the arena of the world
powers and Russia's political influence
in the world has been considerably en-
hanced. The day when a non-aggres-
sion treaty between the United States
and the U. S. S. r. is signed Russia 5
stock in international politics will Jump
100 per cent. Germany knows this, and
it is believed that Hitler will follow
MuSsolini's advice to revise his policies
toward that country.
The real obstacle to a German Rus
sian rapprochement Is the fact that
during the last few months Germany
has been carrying on Irritation with
Japan. The mentality and the aims of
both these countries run parallel, and
while the thousands of miles which
separate them make it difficult for
either of them to succor the other in
case Of trouble, Japan can checkmate
Great Britain in the case of European
conflict by keeping her attention con-
centrated in the Far East. and espe-
cially in India, where the British have
more at stake than in Europe Ger
many can be Of no actual use to Japan
except that Japan can boast Of having
at least one of the principal European
countries as her friend
Fear of Communists Fades.
But, because of the present tense re-
lations between Russia and Japan, the
extending friendly hand to Germany
unless Germany is willing to drop
Japan. Should she do this, there is no
reason why the relations between the
two countries should not become as
cordial as in the past. The fear OF
Communist propaganda to force world
revolution is rapidly disappearing The
actions of the Soviet government dur
ing the last two or three years have
clearly indicated that the aggressive
Communistic idea of forcing Lenin's s
theories upon the world are dead let
ter Russia has evoluated as a dicta-
torship, which is in many ways similar
to that existing in the most civilized
countries of the world.
Consequently, it is not the fear OF
Communist influence that worries
Hitler, and If a basis for an under
standing between the two countries can
be reached, there is no doubt that the
Russians will join the Italian
group.
The Soviet government is opposed to
wars; so are the Germans and the Ital-
ians-for the time being-because they
are not sufficiently prepared to attack