Evening star., 1933-12-31
BY FRANK II. SIMONDS.
Dh H'4h4'Hh III 1H4'H
THE YEAR which is just closing
must III the field of mterna-
tional relations be reckoned the

Il most important Of the Is which
World sE ye :pwed bPs aveh ths et9ze erSe of a the the
measure of that Importance: The Ger
man revolution, the collapse OF the
League of Nations-incident to the
breakdown of the Disarmament Confer
ence-and the return of Russia as
participating power IN world analrs:
RuSSia'S re-entry has been witnessed
alike by the treaties of non-aggresSion
made by the Soviet Union with its Eu-
ropean neighbors and by American rec
ognition,
We are still too close to the event to
measure the lasting meaning of the
German revolution. In itself it had
little that was original since it bor-
rowed copiouSly from the methods OF
Bolshevism and from the performances
of Fascism. But whereas the Russian
revolution launched the experiment of
the Communistic state and the march
on Rome was the prelude to the creation
Of the TOtalitarian state. the National
Socialist adventure neither brought with
it a clear program, as did Lenln, nor
developed one as it proceeded, as did the
Duce.
Basically. it is plain that National
Socialism. like FaScism. represents
violent reaction against Communism and
constitutes an attempt to restore the
SIldh6N SNSlSlIl VI IdJlldLASll4 OS lAAO
intervention Of the state in some
measure camouhaged by program OF
violent nationalisIn. But the persecu-
tiCn of the Jews. the attempt to regl-
ment religion, the eXaltation OF the
gospel of race and the complete accept
ance Of the Aryan myth find no example
II the Italian case
Collapse of the League.
Internationally. however, it is the
spirit of intense and intransigent
nationaism characterizing the Nazl
movement which is of Importance.
Already, too. the success of Hitler at
home has produced certain clear roper
Cussions abroad. And the first of these
has been the collapse of the League of
Nations which was. in turn, produced
by a breakdown Of the Disarmament
Conference, due to the withdrawal OF
Germany and the threatened secession
Of Italy as well.
With the collapse Of the League,
moreover. Europe and the world have
come to the end of an experiment in
luternatiOnaliSm launched by Woodrow
Wilson, first in his fourteen points
and then in his successful advocacy of
a League Of Nations during the Paris
Peace Conference. The idea of world
peace assured by the collective action
of all nations cooperating at Geneva
has broken down, first, to be sure, as
a result Of japanese performances in
Asia, but ultimately as a consequence
CT the German revolution.
On the ruins of the League attempt
Is being made to establish two sorts
cf substitutes. equally unstable although
largely unlike. Italy-nOt without spas
modic support from Britain-is seeking
TO restore the old concert of Europe,
actually established after the Congress
Of Berlin half a century ago. Four
great poWerS-Germany, Italy, France
and Britain-With the possible addition
Joint directors of European affairs.
From their councils the small powers
would be excluded and-inferentially at
least-these small powers would be
forced by territorial and other sacrifices
TO pay the price of continuing peace
between the great.
Recognizing that Germany will not
longer remain diSarmed or permanently
endure her present territorial limits,
NIussolini has sought to revive the old
concert, and through it beStow upon
Germany the right to parity in arn1a-
mentS. and at the same time to push
program of territorial revision calcu-
lated to satisfy German irredentism.
Behind this scheme obviously lies tne
purpose to break up the present French
influence in Europe. which is based
upon French alliance with Poland and
the nations Of the Little Entente.
France Opposes Plan.
Opposed to this Italian plan-which
the French. under pressure from their
e!lies and particularly from CzechOslo-
vakia and Rumania, have formally re-
iccted-is the alternative plan for re-
upWal and STRENGTHENING OF the system
Of French alliances, extended prepara-
tiOns for the inevitable war, and at
least q careful consideration Of the Wis
dom Of precipitating a preventive war
to strike down an irreconc1labie Ger
many before it can acquire the military
means to challenge the status quo. In
effect this second program would con-
tinue French supremacy in Europe for
a while But it would tend to insure
conflict relatively soon, since obviously
the present superiority of France and
her allies on the military side would
progressively diminish as Germany re-
arms.
Now, looking forward to next year, 1t
seems inevitable that the world will see
the European situation take definite
shane. A four or five power concert
remains conceivable, although wholly
unlikely It would become possible only
if the British were ready to undertake
very precise guarantees of French IRON
tiers. In fact. France could only te
led to sacrifice her Polish and little
ally, ineScapably committed to the de-
fense of France. And the British are
opposed to any such undertaking.
With no concert of Europe likely
some form of French alliance must
come calculated to insure the balance
of power IN Europe by opposing Ger
many with an overwhelming comblna-
ton of military force. In such a sit
uation Italy would obviously share the
German desire to upset French su-
premaCv. On the other hand, Italy
would be faced with the peril OF the
German purpose to unite with austria.
AS for Great Britain, 1t could more or
less disaSSOCiate itself from the con-
tinental situation as long as the French
alliance could restrain tie Germans,
but would be forced to intervene <if
German armies again cane VIGOROUSLY
into Belgium or NortheTn France.
Nominally, at least, tie BRUSH ano
French-supported by all the small
mowers of the continent. with the pos
sible exception of Hungary and Bull
paria-are likely to urge a return to
Geneva and a new attempt to work
through the League in an endeaVor 10
patch up some form of disarmament
compromise. But Germany will not
come back, ant. if the French reSist-as
they are bound TO dO-the Italian plan
for reconstructing the League then
Mussolini is likely to follow Hitler out
of Geneva, and that would finish the
League completely.
War This Year?
The supreme question that every one
must ask at the opening of new year
is whether that year is likely to see
another war in Europe. On this point
- ni,,nln r,nSsihln answer is that If