Evening star., 1933-03-12
Can Embargoes Halt Japan?

piled independently Of the United
States, and the only consequence OF an
trade into the hands Of any accom-
modating country which was ready to
supply either contestant.
Here again, then, action by any one
country would be futile; and action by
all would be necessary to make an en-
barge effective. Such an embargo
would be very hard to enforce by joint
action. Nearly all raw materials, par
ticularly metals, are useful in modern
war. Cotton is necessary for explosives
and rubber for military automobiles.
but would the countries selling cotton
or rubber or oil be willing to see their
exports, principally used for peaceful
purposes, be stopped because Of the
small amount serving for war? A selec-
tive embargo would seem impossible,
and little trade would be left If an en-
barge were applied to all raw materials
used for war supplies.
Capable Of Long Duration.
With the great supplies in reserve Of
materials necessary for use in war. with
the addition to stocks coming from cur
tailment of domestic use, there can be
little doubt that Japan at least could
continue not seriously hampered for
long period to wage such operations as
she is now engaged in, or even more
serious ones. The Japanese are oil pro-
ducers on a small scale, and on SAX
halin have large potential supplies,
where wells have already been sunk
and capped and from which supply
could probably be drawn. Japan is
copper-producing country. 1t could
manufacture nitrogen for its explosives
through fixation from the air by use of
its water power, and, so far as its mill
tary operations are concerned, could
carry on successfully even though there
were a cessation Of imports Of raw ma
terials for military supplies.
There could be little result from an
embargo on foodstuffs to either japan
or China Japan imports but little
foodstuffs from outside the empire, and
an important part Of what she formerly
imported came from Manchuria, which
cannot be closed to her by any agree
ment Rice is the principal food of the
country, and in United States De-
partment Of Commerce review for 1882
it is said that: 1T appears probable
that Japan will have an over-supply Of
rice during the coming year Q933)."
The imports from foreign countries are
small and nearly balanced by exports,
SO unless this years crop Is poor, there
is little danger to the staple japanese
food supply.
DR.. o. E. Baker, economist of our
Agriculture Department, says that
Japan might get along for a few years
without imports OF foodstuftS from for
eign countries" This was without TAX
ing into consideration the use Of the
Manchurian crops. The Japanese are
large exporters of fish products, and
they undoubtedly could. If necessary,
increase their fisheries returns. So it
does not seem probable that the coun-
try would be seriously threatened by an
embargo on imports Of food.
The Chinese, too, can support them
selves on their vast territory except in
case of a bad crop or serious flood.
SO that a limitation on an import OF
food into China would not have any
immediate effect on that country.
Long term credits would seem hard
for either Japan or China to negotiate
in this country, or indeed. in any other,
except at very high rates. The total
japanese foreign debt, including gov
ernment loans. is at present estimated
at about 1,9o0,000.000 gold yen. of
which a aIue of at least $450, ,000, 900
are in dollar bonds, about 900,000,000
gold yen. While large part Of this
debt has been repatriated, probably at
least SO per cent remains aboard. The
present prices of japanese securities in
the New York market, the 5-12s OF
probability OF any large financing in
this country to add to the present for
eign debt.
Short Term Credits.
Short term credits are tied up with
business The silk trade in the United
States is financed through short term
credits negotiated in this country by
the buyers of japanese silk to pay Tor
the silk on its receipt, and 1t will be
impossible to continue that business
without such credit. An embargo on
business credit would be a death blow
to the silk trade, and the same IS true
of the next largest japanese import
into this country-tea. Such action
would have an immediate repercusslon
on the important American exports 10
Japan of raw cotton and petroleum
without the credits coming from the
sale of silk. it is hard to see how Japa-
nese importers could buy our petroleum
or cotton and, therefore. large markets
for two of our great articles OF export
would be Immediately shut on.
It is not generally known that the
| United States is by far the best Gus
toner Japan has, taking 40 per cent OF
her exports, and that Japan Is one OF
our best customers for raw cotton ana
| petroleum products. The japanese raw
| silk that comes to this country Is useo
| in some 1,600 mills, employing more
than 100000 workers and very large
amount of American capital. The total
silk exports from Japan in 1882, during
| the season from July to September ~,
| totaled 316,717 bales. of which 3O3 ,293
bales went to America and 1924 to
other countries During the previous
wear 3l7.278 bales came to this country
and 8,7l5 bales went elsewhere.
Thus around 95 per cent OF the
.Japanese silk comes to this country,
| and well over 80 per cent Of the raw
silk used here comes from Japan. OF
| our cotton Japan took, in 1928, IA per
cent of the total export. Since that
total export was, roughly, one-haf OF
the supply. this would mean that
Japan bought per cent of the total
amount Of the cotton grown in the
country in that year. For 1881 the ex-
port was 40 per cent of our total raw
cotton exports, or IL per cent OF the
total crop.
These figures alone do not show the
whole Importance of the American
market to Japan The japanese balance
of trade is unfavorable; that is, she
buys more in foreign markets than she
sells, but in the United States it is
normally the other way round. In
1881. for example, the Japanese exports
to the United States were valued at
425, 1870, 900 yen, while the imports from
this country to Japan were worth
342, 100000 yen. Compare these figures
with those for Europe, to which the
| &1.1
IMPORT IMPORTS 1ss 74s S',ygu 600 ven IF For al all OF Of
Asia, including China and India, ex-
ports were 5O5.O18.0OO yen, while the
imports we're 493, ,952 900 yen.
Japan could i'll afford to break the
most profitable Of her commercial re-
lationships. If the flow of silk to this
country were interrupted or made diff
ficult for couple Of seasons, the con-
sequences on Japan economically would