The Waterbury Democrat., 1933-10-17

New York, Oct IT = Since the summer of 1892, when the low point of the world depression was reached, there has been marked improvement in business activity in the principal industrial countries, accompanied by recovery in world prices of staple commodities. This is the general conclusion in respect to world economic condi- tions and trends presented in a statement issued yesterday by the National Industrial Conference board.
 The worldwide improvement, the conference board finds. oc- cured largely in the last months of 1892. In 1893 business recovery continued through the month of July. Statistics for the month of August are not yet available, and it is impossible to say whether or not the rest of the world has ex- perienced a> recession in business activity similar to that which oc- cured in the United States.
 Examination of various business indices, the conference board states, shows that the low point of the world business depression was reached in the summer of 1882. In most countries business was at its lowest ebb in the month of August. Index numbers of industrial pro- duction in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Canada, Belgium, and other countries reached the low point in the mid- dle of 1892. Since that time there has been a distinct improvement.
 Coinciding' with this improve ment in business activity in the principal industrial countries of the world, there occurred recovery in world prices of raw materials and odstuffs-wheat, sugar, coffee, cotton, rubber, silk, tin, wool, hides and leather. In the last quarter of 1892 these prices again turned downward, but for the first time since 1929 prices of most staple commodities at the end of the year remained above the low points for the year. The decline in whole sale prices in practically all coun- tries of the world was either ar- rested or greatly slowed down in the second half of 1892.
 The decline in the volume and the value of world trade was also stopped in the last half of 1892, while the League of Nations index of world prices of internationally traded commodities moved in a horizontal direction. Security prices either moved horizontally or turned upward in the second half of the year in all financial markets.
 Restriction of bank credit, due to the desire for increased liquid ity, came to an end in the second half of 1892 and eliminated one of the powerful forces of deflation. Central bank rates of discount and open market interest rates for short-term funds were reduced to the lowest levels since the World war. A tremendous volume of idle funds has accumulated in the prin- cipal financial centers and is avail able to finance an extensive busi- ness revival.
 The volume of unemployment remained high throughout 1882, but the increase in unemployment was stopped.
 The relations between creditor and debtor countries were funda- mentally altered. The debtor na- tions were able to adjust their bal ances of merchandise trade to the situation created by the complete cessation of international lending. Practically without exception, the debtor nations have converted large import surpluses itno consid- erable export surpluses on mer- chandise account. This was ac- complished through great reduc- ton in the total volume and value of foreign trade. imports having been reduced more drastically than exports. The creditor nations, on the other hand, with the exception of the United States, continued to maintain large import surpluses.