Evening star., 1933-03-03

where it would merge with the develop
ing Arctic low and lose its individuality.
But there was still the high pressure
down SO fast that it could head off,
the escaping low by getting around it.
Then, it is likely, the low world "somer-
Sault" again and there would be a con-
tinuance Of the stagnation and unpre-
dictability. Fortunately the reports
from Chesterfield Inlet, on Hudson Bay,
and from Canadian stations indicated
that the high-pressure wedge was de-
clining in force There we're relative
ly high temperatures over the Canadian
Arctic. The high pressure wedge
would not have stamina enough to
overtake the fleeing low.
Prediction Cautious.
So Mr.. Mitchell made the cautious
prediction that, barring unforeseen de-
velopments, Saturdays weather would
be fair. Even with complete data on
pressure conditions in the Arctic.
weather prediction during a time of
'stagnant weather would be difficult
enough. But the forecaster actually
must depend on scattered and made
quate data because observing stations
north Of the Arctic circle are few and
far between. Conditions may be de-
veloping of which the weather men as
yet know nothing.
There are those curious westerly
winds in the upper atmosphere report
ed from Nova zembla and Spitzbergen.
They are carrying high pressure vest
ward and normally may be expected to
destroy that Greenland low which is
Washington's best guarantee for fair
CaA, Inry p1rf rol a.
tions indicate that they are not NOV
Ing fast enough to get in their dirty
work until the Inauguration festivities
are over.
Far from the Arctic there are other
spots on the map which catch the eye
Of the worried forecaster. Ordinarily
Washington weather Is more dependent
on what Is happening to the west thar
directly to the north. Some days age
there was an ominous low pressure area
moving eastward over Arizona. Amateur
weather forecasters spotted it on the
maps and called it excitedly to the at
tention Of the Weather Bureau. But II
has broken up somewhere In the South
west. so that it is no longer danger
Another low has formed in its wake
but it cannot reach Washington soon
enough to influence the weather on
Saturday. Weather to the south and
west-along the path which the Nc
KenNe Valley highs use to chase the
scurrying lows eastward-is distressingly
"stagnant" for the purposes Of the
forecaster. It is not likely to cause any
changes here before tomorrow.
1929 Condition Different.
The condition is quite different from
four years ago, Mr.. Mitchell pointed out.
Then the pressure areas were moving
rapidly along predictable paths and al
steady rates. The picture indicated rain
for Washington some time in advance
and the Inauguration parade was
drenched with q downpour. Forecastine
was easier. Under such conditions, II
was pointed out at the Weather Bureau
q meteorologist can predict with con-
siderable confidence Just what is going
to happen and the only complication
comes with the time element. A pre-
dicted storm Is almost certain to come
but it may arrive ahead Of or behind
schedule. But there is little chance oi
going entirely wrong.
The weather forecaster, after all, ha.
q thankless job. His most difficult pre-
dictions may 60 wrong, because of the
very uncertainty Of the factors that
made them difficult, and he comes ir
for q lot of criticism. His most spec.
tacular forecasts, on the other hand
usually are the easiest.
He can only do his best from day tt
day and he tries to forget such dis.
concerting circumstances as a coming
Inauguration. It is just another day ir
the year. Nature does not stop hel
atmospheric engine for the convenience
Of new President, but keeps it running
in Just the same way as on the most
insiRnificant Of daYs.