Evening star., 1933-09-19
TREND IN EXPORT
TRADE UNCERTAIN
Sales Abroad Pick Up, but
Figures Fall Short of
1918 Total.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

Some significant things are hidden
in transactions between the United
States and the rest of the world, both
goods exchanged.
America Is still buying less than It Is
selling, but only q negligible difference.
This is not SO important, anyway, be-
cause we have a plethora Of gold. What
. is vital, however, Is: How does the
total volume of foreign trade compare
with normal and Is there a real or only
temporary pickup in our sales abroad?
There have been some substantial
increases in goods sold. Thus, General
Motors shows an increase Of 100 per
cent over last year, and this is typical
Of the motor industry. Unquestionably
America has been buying abroad more
than usual. But an analysis Of the
figures reveci- that while in many In
stances the ollar volume has gone up
materially the total number Of pieces
Of goods l'.s not increased very much.
Thus raw silk imported increased from
June to July by about 20 per cent In
dollar volume, but only 81 per cent In
quantity.
Imitation Fear Plays Part
To a large extent this is reflection
of the increased amounts American
purchasers Of foreign goods are paying
in foreign currencies, due to deprecia-
ton of the dollar. AS for export trade,
the jump in sales, reckoned on a dollar
volume, Is also high, because of an
anticipation Of higher prices abroad
and also because Of a fear that inf1a-
tion in the United States will cheaper
the dollars that American firms and
hvYC iyHa al
might better invest their available
ture manufactures.
Any increase in foreign trade Is to
be welcomed as a healthy sign, but It Is
dimcult to derive much comfort out Of
the figures thus far, for we do not know
whether they represent q permanent
trend or temporary furry The pres
ent uncertainties of dollar exchange,
coupled with doubts as to the point at
which gold stabilization will ultimately
be attained, are material factors along
with possible currency imitation. so that
1888 figures will remain an enigma for
some time.
The latest available data from the
Department Of Commerce shows that,
Notwithstanding the gratifying increases
in July over June. exports for the seven
months were still IA per cent behind
the same seven months Of 1882 and i'm
ports about II per cent below the seven
month period Of last year.
1913 and 1888 Compared.
The relatively small increase in for
eign trade is best shown by looking
back 20 years We had in July, 1913,
exports Of $l61 100000, while In July,
1888. they amounted to only $l45 ,000,-
600, and all this In spite Of the fact that
America in 1913 was on the gold basis,
while this year the dollar has depre-
ciated 80 per cent and hence our prices
should be more attractive to foreign
purchasers.
As for imports, we bought $13s,10o,-
900 in July, 1913. In July OF this year
we bought $143, 900 900 and, having sold
s145, ,0O0, 900, the balance Of trade was
only $2000,000. Taking into account
all the invisible items Of exchange, the
proba bilities are that We are less OF q
creditor Nation than we were. There
is q big enough balance in our favor at
present, but it remains to be seen
whether imports will continue to rise
and, If they do, there will be plenty
with which the rest Of the world can
nav its service on its debts. But what
is more important now Is whether .
large export market for American agri-
cultural products, like wheat and cot
ton, can be re-established. This Is still
Q matter Of great uncertainty.
(Copyright. 1933)