Evening star., 1933-04-30
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

7 EFT us carefully begin by keeping
firmly in mind that, up to the
time of this writing, no inf1a-
- ton of currency has taken place.
The measure which Mr.. RooSe-
Welt asked for and which Congress has
wrangled about during the past week
was not inflation-it was bill to give
Mr.. Roosevelt power to initiate at his
discretion. Internationally, this Is by
far the greatest power ever conferred
on anyaPresident of the United States;
it is greater power than any King OF
England has had since medieval times
but that is another story)
We have had no imitation of the cur
rency yet: and even those who most
want imitation understand that accord
ing to the program now under way.
some time will elapse and some inter-
mediate steps will be taken before In
the possibility, also, that imitation may
never take place.
In spite of all this, imitation as q
topic of discussion is very much with
us. The discussion Is justified. 1nf1a-
ton as possibility has been brought
before us. The debate that took place
in Congress the past week was not un-
called for and not out of proportion to
the urgency Of the question. or its i'm
sibility to justify the current curiosity
about the nature of it, the mechanism
through which it Is brought about, and
the results of it-and also the excited
discussion about the desirability of 1t.
Termed "Shot in Arm"
One of the familiar assertions Is that
imitation, once started, cannot be
stopped; that once a nation begins
with small imitation of its currency
it is certain to repeat the dose: Re
pear the dose" IS one of the familiar
phrases in which the assertion is made.
Another phrase, characteristically vivid,
used by ex-Gov. Al Smith of New York,
is that imitation is a shot in the arm"
one of those stimulants which must be
repeated so soon as the effect of each
injection has worn off. This assertion
that initiation, once started, cannot be
stopped was made again and again
and yet again in the congressional de-
bates the past week.
The purpose of the present article Is
not to deny the assertion-nor yet to
indorse it. The purpose is rather to
inquire, if this assertion is true. why
it should be true The country is
eager for information about every as
pect Of inflaticn. To ask the country
to accept an off-hand dictum is not
fair; and the country IS in a state Of
lively intellectual ferment which tends
to question dicta of all kinds. The
average man in Des Moines, or Min
neapolis, or Kansas City is not going
to be satisfied to be told that an initial
installment of imitation is certain to
be followed by others-he wants to
know why this should be so.
Many who make this assertion and
are then asked for proof reply merely
that all precedent is that way. But
even If all precedent were that way, we
should still be called upon to inquire
why it is so. As a matter of fact, not
all precedents are that way, though
many are. The most conspicuous case
many started imitation intending, as
all imitation governments intend. to
stop with the first dose. Germany
went on with dose after dose after dose
until the German currency reached
the point illustrated by Senator VAN
denberg last week when he passed over
to Senator Reed, of Pennsylvania, Ger
man marks having nominal value OF
scme billions of dollars, but an actual
value not great enough to pay for a
nights lodging in Berlin hotel in
1928 Germany, in short, is a case
which proves the assertion that inf1a-
ton once begun goes on to the end.
France. however, succeeded in stop
ping. When imitation began in France
the franc was worth roughly twenty
five cents. Successive waves of inf1a-
ton carried it down to where 1t Wavered
between three and five cents. There
upon the French government, by he
roic and ingenious action, stabilized 1t
at roughly four cents. So much for
the precedents.
Tendency Is to Repeat.
The truth seems to be this: Once
government begins imitation Of its cur
rency, there is a strong tendency 10
repeat.
What is the reason for that tend
ency? Why is 1t difficult to have what
the Roosevelt administration calls a
controlled" imitation? Why Is 1t dill
ficult to arrest imitation? To put 1t IN
terms of our own Government, why is
it that if we begin by making the dol
lar worth 80 cents. We will thereupon!
be tempted to make it go cents, ana
then 40 cents, and then 20, and so on?
The reason does not lie in any trait
OF human nature, nor in any change OF
mind on the part Of the head OF gov.
ernment. When the thing happens at
all. it happens as a result OF forces
which prove too strong for the govern
ment.
To understand what happens, start
with the fundamental condition: There
IS In the United States about five bill
1ionc of currency leash money! and