Evening star., 1933-12-24
FRANCO-RETCH ARMS RIFT
! HELD STEP NEARER CRISIS
Rearmament of Germany Is Bound to Be
Achieved if Force Is Not Used in
a Preventive War.

or annex Austria, both of which are
! far away from British shores.
But what the British can no longer
do is to ask the French to reduce their
armaments. For they are unable any
longer to dodge the fact that Germany
is rearming and France is not armed
beyond the point Of safety. On the con-
trary the French have now to expand
their own air forces. which is the first
concrete result of the German policy
under Hitler. Nor are the British less
irritated by the obvious attempt of
Berlin to deal with Toxic, for Japan
and Britain are at odds over economic
issues and German adventure in the
East touches sensitive point.
Practically we are going to see Ger
many during the next five years rearm
up to the point Of equality and perhaps
superiority. so far as France is con-
cerned, provided in that time there is
no open conflict. In the same way we
are going to see an enormous expansion
of ornaments everywhere on the Con-
tinent. Belgium has just voted vast
sums for fortifications on the German
frontier, designed to link up with the
French. Money is also available to re-
organize the army, raising the field
force from 20 IL divisions.
One Obvious Danger Point,
When Belgium gets her Chinese wall
finished the western frontier of Ger
many from Holland to Switzerland will
be fortified against German invasion.
Moreover, Switzerland has also made
large appropriations against prospective
German invasion of France through
Swiss territory, and that means still
another frontier put in condition of
readiness for war. If Warsaw and Ber-
lin have been indulging in peace talk
recently that, too, is not to be taken
too seriously. On the contrary, it rep
resents the Polish "riposte" to French
consent to enter the fcur-power pact,
a consent now withdrawn.
In the next few months there is
going to be one obvious danger point
That will come in April or May, when
it is again possible to move troops. If
there is going to be war of prevention
1t will come because to delay longer
would be dangerous. Personally, how
ever, unless there are very far-reaching
changes in the general situation before
Spring, I do not expect to see war at
that time. After that the next critical
point will come when the Germans
unoertake-as they presently must-to
occupy the demilitarized area with
troops and proceed to restore the for
tifications along the Rhine.
That would constitute a violation OF
the treaty of Versailles, and on the
strength of it France might call upon
Britain and Italy to make good their
commitments of the Locarno pacts.
But unless the Germans are incredibly
foolish, they will not try to rush
things and the Rhine question will
not come up next year. On the con-
trary, all German policy would seem
to be mortgaged by the question of
the Saar.
In 1884 the question of the Saar
must be settled. The French are now
very hesitant about letting this region
go back to Germany. They are more
hopeful of the outcome of the plebiscite
although mistakenly, think. In any
event, II the Germans become too ag-
gressive the French may see in
military operation provoked by German
menaces and technical breaches of the
treaty of Versailles Justification for
intervention in the Rhineland and
poStponement of the plebiscite in the
Saar.
For the next II months, then. the
Sarre is the most sensitive point in the
european situation. Austria comes next
And If Hitler persists in his Austrian
program Italy will have no choice but
to stand with France Then the dis
armament question will always remain
peril, because at any time she chooses
France can call Germany to account
for violation of the treaty of Versailles
and. on that basis. reoccupy the Rhine
1and. And out of any one of these
three issues an acute crisis could emerge
at any moment.
Erred in Alternating All.
The weakness of the German situa-
ton lies, of course, in the incredible
folly o. the Hitler crowd in alternating
all countries at once. So far as France
was concerned that was perhaps in
evitable. But Russia, Britain and Italy
have similarly been aroused and it Is
perfectly clear today that if the French
should march into the Rhineland again,
while they would not be supported by
the British or the Italians physically.
they would not be opposed by either
and would be assisted by the Poles and
CzechS
This may seem a far cry from the
subject of disarmament, but it is a
pretty fair index of the direction the
discussion of disarmament has now
taken in Europe Before Spring it now
looks as if Italy and Britain would
join more or less closely with France
in serving notice upon the Germans
that they must stop threatening the
whole European situation by their
double policy of attack upon Austrian
independence and rush to rearmament
And Russia would certainly Join in any
such gesture.
All of which comes down to saying
that Europe has pretty well abandoned
the idea that it is possible to do busi-
ness with Hitler on any basis of under
standing. His peaceful gestures are
matched by the universal knowledge Of
the actual drive toward rearmament
going on inside the Reich. But the
alternative is some form of association
against Germany like that which was
created against France after Waterloo
and prevented any new French ad-
venture for at least a generation. Both
Italy and Britain would like to avoid
such an association, but Hitler is driv-
ing them both toward it daily and in
the end it may become unavoidable.
(Copyright, 1889