Evening star., 1933-12-31
BY JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES,
Famous British Economist.
LONDON December 80


trustee for those in every
- country who seek to mend the
evils of our condition by rea-
soned experiment within the frame
work of the existing social system.
If YOU fail rational change will be
gravely prejudiced throughout the
world. leaving orthodoxy and revolution
to fight it out
But if you succeed new and bolder
methods will be tried everywhere. and
we may date the first chapter of a new
economic era from your accession 10
Office.
This is a sufficient reason why I
should venture to lay my reflections
before you. though under the dlsad-
yantageS of distance and partial knowl-
edge.
At the moment your sympathizers in
England are nervous and sometimes
desrondent. We wonder whether the
order of different urgencies. is rightly
understood whether there is a con-
fusion of aims, and whether some OF the
advice you get is not crack-brained and
queer.
Distorted View Prevails.
If we are disconnected when We de-
fend you, this is partly due to the in
f1uence of our environment in London.
For almost every one here has widely
distorted view of what is happening in
the United States.
The average city man believes you
are engaged on a hare-brained expedi-
ton in face of competent advice, that
the best hope lies in your rlddlng your
self of your present advisers to return to
the old ways. and that otherwise the
United States is heading for some
ghastly breakdown. That is what they
say they smell.
There is a recrudeScence of wise
head-wagging by those who believe the
nose is nobler organ than the brain.
London is convinced that we only have
to sit back and wait to see what we
shall see. May I crave your attention
while put my own view?
You are engaged on a double task
recovery and reform-recovery from the
slump, and the passage of those busi-
ness and social reforms which are long
overdue For the first. speed and quick
results are essential The second may
be urgent, too, but haste will be in
furious and wisdom of long-range pur-
pose is more necessary than immediate
achievement. It will he through rails
ing high the prestige OF your admin
iStration by success III ShOrt-range re-
covery that YOU will have the driving
force to accomplish long-range reform.
Warns Against Confusion.
On the other hand even wise and
necessary reform may. in some respects,
impede and complicate recovery. For
it will upset the confidence Of the busl-
ness world and weaken their existing
motives to action. before you nave had
time to put other motives in their place.
1t may overtask your bureaucratic ma
chine. which the traditional individual
"spoils system" have left none too
strong. And it will confuse the thought
stratiOn by giving you too much ID
think about all at once,
New 1 am not clear. looking back
/ over the last nine months. that the
order Of urgency between measures OF
recovery and measures of reform has
been duly observed, or that the latter
has not sometimes been mistaken for
the former. In particular, though its
social gains are considerable, cannot
detect any material aid to recovery in
the N r. A. The driving force which
has been put behind the vast admins
trative task set BY his act has seemed
to represent q wrong choice In the
order OF urgencies. The act is on the
statute book; a considerable amount
has been done toward implementing
it, but it might be better for the pres
ent to allow experience to accumulate
before trying to force through all its
details.
That is my first rehection-that N:
R. A.. which is essentially reform and
probably impedes recovery. has been
Dut across too hastily, in the false
guise of being part of the technique
of recovery.
The Technique Of Recovery.
My second reflection relates to the
technique of recovery itself. The OBJ
iect of recovery is to increase the ma
tional output and put more men to
work In the economic system of the
modern world, output is primarily pro-
duced for sale; and the volume of out
put depends On the amount OF pur-
chasing power compared with the
prime cost of production, which is eX-
pected to come on the market.
Broadly speaking, therefore, an in
crease of output cannot occur unless
| by the operation Of one or other OF
three factors. Individuals must be In
duced to spend more out OF their exist