Evening star., 1933-07-30
BY FRANK H. SIMONDS.

BY FRANK II. SIMONDS.
TINE announcement contained in
recent radio address Of Col.
Howe, secretary to the President
i that when the Arms Conference
reconvenes at Geneva in Oc-
tober, the American representatives will
press the proposals made by Mr.. Roose-
welt in the Spring, clearly commits the
administration and the country to one
more effort to promote European dis
armament by American effort. Along
with Col. Howe'S statement went pro-
spectus of progress already made at Ge-
neva which would, venture to guess,
surprise Mr.. Henderson. president of the
conference, now enlaged in q rather
mournful journey from capital to capi-
tai seeking to enlis& aid to revive a
moribund assembly.
But what is most Interesting in the
announcement is the indication that
Washington still hopes for results from
the Roosevelt prescription. That pre-
scription. it will be recalled, envisaged
the scrapping Of weapons, described by
artillery. so far as it is mobile, large
tanks. etc. These weapons could OBJ
viously be employed to attack and would
be effective for use against the vast
system of frontier Notifications France
has constructed from the Rhine to Lux
emburg.
The theory underlying thu Presidents
proposal is that nations like France,
manifestly disturbed over the aggressive
political purposes of their neighbors,
could be persuaded to abandon their
own offensive weapons if similar re-
nunciation were obtained from their
neighbors. In fact, they would theo-
retically increase their own security
thereby. And along with this elimina-
ton of Offensive" weapons goes the
proposal for a strict international su-
pervision of the armaments of all coun-
tries, presumably conducted by the
League Of Nations.
This program commends itself at
once to no inconsiderable part of the
American public. But to the European
its very simplicity is misleading For,
in the first place, neither the Prepara-
tory Commission, during its five years
Of existence, nor the Arms Conference
itself, which has sat intermittently for
nearly year and half has ever been
able to establish an acceptable defini-
tion of an Offensive" weapon.
Broad Basis for Disagreement.
But there Is a much broader basis
for disagreement. It is described at
Geneva as the 'potentialities of war
a term which has little or no Amer
lean vogue. Thus the French and their
allies, who today possess certain num-
Der of expensive and large weapons,
guns and tanks, for example, start with
the obvious assumption that while it
may be possible to obtain an agreement
10 Nf oil +a hoy
these weapons and supervision may in
sure fulfllment Of the pledge. with the
outbreak of war, all prohibitions auto
matically lapse.
But in such circumstances Germany,
which is industrialized to an extent far
greater than France or any of her al
lies, could in short time arm herself
with such weapons to an extent which
would be beyond the power of France.
Thus not Immediately. but eventually,
she would enjoy mechanical superior
ity. And, already possessing much
greater population, and therefore the
potentialities of large man power. Ger
many would be certain to triumph.
neither has the heavy weapons nor do
her treaty obligations or her financial
difficulties permit her in any immediate
future to arrive at parity with France
and her allies in this direction. And,
for certain time, superior financial
resources will enable France to retain
her present advantage. She has, then,
for the time being. security of sort.
And she will not part with it, except
in return for material guarantees of
equal value.
That is why Henderson was told in
Paris recently that the most France
would now consider doing was to join
in setting up the machinery for the
where. Then, If after four or five
years this system justified itself and
by implication, rather than direct state
ment, the second proviso was broached
the German state of mind changed,
something might be done.
But when Henderson got to Berlin
he was met by the equally uncompro-
missing statement that the Germans
saw in this French suggestion the sign
Of resolution to avoid granting Ger
many her flercely-sought equality al
once and in fact fobbing her OF fol
four more years. And the Hitler die
tatorship was frankly mot having any
Of that particular proposal.
Deadlock Seems Inevitable.
Henderson's experience In Paris and
Berlin, therefore, constituted q clear
warning that once the Arms Conference
should reassemble it would again be
deadlocked as it was before by the clash
between German demand for equality
without condition and the French in
sistence that security should be clearly
established before q parity, recognized
in principle, should become physically
realised. And such a deadlock would
inevitably have disagreeable and ever
dangerous repercussions in q Europe ir
its present circumstances.