Evening star., 1933-06-04
WHEAT SURPLUS
PILES Up IN !. S.
One-HaIf of Worlds Over.
production Is in Granaries
of America.
BY the Associated Press.

BY the Associated Press.
AS American experts discuss acreage
limitation at the London Four-power
Wheat Conference, the United States,
with more than 400 000, 900 bushels in
It's granaries. has almost one-han of
all the worlds surplus Of the golden
grain.
This is unprecedented, say grain
authorities of the Department Of Agri-
culture, and the conditions that
brought about the situation threaten
to get worse unless brought under
control"
Statistics assembled by the depart
ment unfold story, Federal wheat ex
pertS hold, of blind production for an
unknown demand; Of gigantic competi-
tive forces, shifting currents in inter-
national trade, of changing relations be-
tween the Old and New World.
Labor and Loss"
Every bushel of wheat represented by
the figures" they say, tells a tale OF
labor and loss
In the nineteenth century, the United
States was Europe's bread basket.
Wheat exports in 1898, with Europe
getting the largest share, registered 227,-
100000 bushels from this country. The
early years of the twentieth century saw
the trade take sharp dive, plummet-
ing down to 81 ,89l 900 bushels in 1911.
But American agriculture, say the
Experts, suffered not whit from the
decline Farmers adjusted themselves
to it, diversified their productions, con-
tinued to prosper.
4, The World War came ana wheat pro-
auction for export reached a new high.
Ghe year 1920 saw 369, 1913 900 bushels
shipped out of the country.
American participation in the war
Gas the chief builder of this new peak
The Department Of Agriculture writes
the structure down as bad business, be-
cause, 1t explains exports OF the war
years and the postwar years were
largely paid for, not by foreign Gus
toners, but by the United States
through loans. The apparent profit,
therefore, was illusory.
Lessened Shipments.
Hand and hand with lessened loans
went lessened wheat shipped abroad.
Last year only 112,000,000 bushels were
exported and the total for this year
may not exceed $4,000, 900 bushels.
But the drop in exports has not been
matched by cut in production. Sta
tistics show that the United States has
produced more than 100000 900 BUSH
els in seven out of the last eight years;
in two of these years production ex-
ceeded 900, ,000, 900 bushels.
Federal observers say that three
things happen to the annual wheat
crop. From 800, ,000, 900 to 700 .000, 900
bushels go into domestic consumption.
Since 1928 this consumption has in
creased less rapidly than the popula-
tion.
Exports and carryover account for
the rest of each seasons production.
AS the exports decline the carryover
mounts. In the year ended June 80,
1928, the United States exported 2o5,-
100000 bushels and had a carryover of
fewer than 100,000,000 bushels. In the
year ended June 80, 1882, we exported
12,000,0 900 bushels and had a carryover
of 362,000,0o0 bushels-three times the
normal.
Actually, the world consumption of
wheat grew steadily in the last decade.
1t was not the falling demand that
brought about the mounting wheat sur
plus in this country, observers explain,
but rising production here and abroad.
Surpluses Disappear.
Surpluses disappear eventually it is
pointed out, through declines in pro-
duction, increase in demand, or a COM
DdnatlOn OF Lne6e factors.
In attempting to forecast how the
American surplus will disappear" ex-
plain Federal observers, the first essen
tial is to estimate the probable trend
of the demand. The fact that arti-
fetal barriers, such as tariffs, exchange
restrictions and milling quotas check
our export at present does not necessa-
rily imply that a removal of these ham
dicaps would stimulate the trade.
TT might, but the point cannot be
taken for granted The restrictions do
not stand by themselves. They form
part of a constant effort byi the i'm
porting countries to overcome more
Self-sufficient
1T must be remembered too, that the
increased foreign competition repre-
sented by the growth of wheat produc-
ton in Canada, Argentina and Aus
traiia will tend to persist"
An obviously practical thing to do,
say department authorities, is to con-
centrate on diminishing the surplus.