Evening star., 1933-02-12
BY FRANK II. SIMONDS.

ME aITlVdl Oh f1lJleT, long Delayed,
much feared creaAe a situa-
ton of doubt and confusion
L which can only be resolved by
events. Even the best informed
Germans in this country have no real
grasp on the facts at home and their
advices from the homeland are uni
formly contradictory. There are
obviously three possibilities national
rally to the new combination of Hin
denburg and Hitler; prolongation Of
the present chaos through the failure
of the forthcoming election to end the
parliamentary paralysis; last of all,
civil war resulting from the resistance
of the iron front Of Communists and
Socialists to an attempted dictatorship
At the moment the first test must
be the forthcoming election for the
Reichstag. the third during the last IL
months. By constitutional methods Hit
Ter will now attempt to resolve the
crisis through the election of a majority
of supporters in the Reichstag. His
combination today rests upon a coali-
ton of his own party with the Ma
tionaliSts led by Hugenberg.
In the Reichstag which was elected
several months ago, but never as
sembled, the combined strength of these
two parties was 248 against 222 for the
Communists and Socialists. Between
these two irreconcilable groups stood
the Catholic Center, which, with its
Bavarian wing, counted 85. When it
refused to support Hitler and Hugen-
berg in the partnership known as the
Hartzburg coalition, the Reichstag was
obviously deadlocked and only a new
election could produce working con-
ditions.
But what chance Is there Of such a
solution? Frankly, very little. German
voting is done by a system Of proper
t1onal representation and with the
passing of time the various parties have
been hammered down to something like
fixed strength. Thus while the two
Left parties, the Socialist and the Com
munist, frequently gain and lose votes
to each other their combined strength
in the Reichstag rarely varies much
while the Catholic parties are an equally
fixed quantity The same immobility
has in the last two elections been dis
cernible in the Right group.
Two Other Choices Left.
This point deserves to be stressed,
for the next election must be the final
effort to find majority on which to
base government. If it fails the
choice must be between chaos and some
form Of dictatorship. Thus the figures
are eloquent. In the last three elec-
tions the combined strength of the
Communists and Socialists has been
220, 221 and 222 seats. respectively. In
the same time the Catholic totals have
been 81, 95 and IS seats. In the last
two elections the Nazis, Nationalists
and their allies of the Peoples Party
captured 266 and 260 seats.
Thus 1t Is almost impossible to see
change which can provide the Hitler
Hugenberg combination with that
minimum Of 800 seats which alone
could insure safe majority. The iron
front OF the Socialists and Communists
cannot be broken. Catholic discipline
Will hold and, whatever happens, not
less than 800 seats are assured to
combination Of the Left and Center.
And the next Reichstag win not have
more than 600 members.
After election Hitler and Nuremberg
VIII have to turn once more to Bruen-
ing and Kaas, the leaders of the Cath
olic party. But to win their assent,
which was not to be had in the recent
crisis, they win have to agree to gov
ern constitutionally, to rule moderately
and to resign all hope of bringing about
the revolutionary changes the Nazi
- Ao0ANAAA NAA 'Ao<0SS. 1ASA4 q SOdloC Wy
no means impossible, is the best hope
for Germany today so far as internal
peace Is concerned.
Just why the highly esteemed
Schleicher failed as the strong man"
does not yet appear. Unquestionably
he was hampered by the fact that Hin
denburg was never reconciled to the
fall of his chosen Chancellor Papen.
But, on the other hand, it is clear
that Schleicher'S own major calcula-
tion, namely that he could produce a
split in Nazi ranks, was unfo,mded
There was a brief cleavage, certain
men deserted, but the rank and file
stood fast. Even more impressive
by-election Tin Lippe) disclosed the
enormously significant fact that the
disintegration of the Nazi forces, SO
generally forecast after the last elec-
tion, was not taking place.
On the other hand the notion that
Hitler can now repeat the achievement
of Mussolini seems wholly unfounded
Fascism and its leader triumphed in
Italy because political and economic
dlsintegration and social disorder had
reached very advanced stage. There
was no strong party group or leadership
to oppose the Duce. The old Liberal
organization had disintegrated and there
was no man who dared to attempt to
check the rising food.
Organized Strongly.
Nothing like that situation exists In
Germany On the contrary, as I have
pointed out. the Communists and So
fhn Toft oy,I l,n