Evening star., 1933-01-01
BY FRANK H. sIMoNDs.

NM question can possibly be
asked with more anxiety at
this time, when even IN the
United States, the third year OF de-
preston is forcing reluctant nation
to recognize the tlniversality OF the ca
tastrophe. And this recognition has
brought with it the perception that re-
covery involves international as well as
national action.
Obviously the European prospect Is
threefold. Beyond question interna-
tional conflict domestic revolution and
political truce permitting economic re-
covery are all possible. What is strik-
ing is that today no one will venture
the forecast that any one of the three
Is certain. In fact, on only one thing
do most competent observers of Euro
pean circumstances agree. And that is
upon the conviction that the existing
conditions cannot continue long with
out producing both war and revolu-
ton.
Looking to the question of war, it is
clear that there are on the continent
today a score of issues between nations
and races out of which conflict might
come soon and from which war must
arrive eventually, if there is no change
in the spirit of the peoples immedi-
ately concerned But from the list of
these causes Of possible collision two
must be taken at once as constituting
the most likely occasions for conflict in
the next twelve months These are the
Polish Corridor and the Adriatic ques-
tion. And while the former involves
Poland and Germany directly and the
latter italy and Yugoslavia, in both
the French detail is of decisive impor-
tance.
Virtual War in Corridor.
The resolution of the German people
to recover their lost provinces in the
East and the similar determination OF
Poland to maintain the status quo the
state Of mind of the Polish and Ger
man peoples, the condition of virtual
war which exists in and about the Cor
ridor, these constitute familiar circum-
stances out of which war invariably
arises. Moreover, the fact that year
by year the German population in the
lost provinces is melting away, while
the situation of the German majorities
in Danzig and East Prussia as well is
becoming precarious, supplies patent
temptation to German Nationalists to
act. Even now street brawl in DAN
zig or a riot in Bromberg might, in the
inf1amed state of public opinion in Ber-
lin as well as Warsaw, produce a crisis
out OF which war might emerge And
since France is the ally of Poland and
Czechoslovakia of France, it is obvious
that like the assassination of Serajeyo,
new incident in an obscure corner of
Europe might set the whole continent
efire.
Similarly threatening is the situation
at the head Of the Adriatic, where Ital-
ian and Southern Slavs have been at
daggers drawn since the close of the
war. Within recent days street demon
strations IN Rome have testified to Ital-
ian sentiment, while from Belgrade has
come the charge that the Italians are
seeking to exploit notorious differences
between Croat and Serb to destroy the
unity of the Yugoslav state And as
Yugoslavia and France are allies, con-
flict on the Isonzo would almost inevi-
tably be the signal for battle on the
Roya.
1t is true, also. that events Of the
past year. above all. the utter failure of
the machinery of the League of Nations
and the provisions of the kellogg pact
TO function in the case of Manchuria
have influenced the European situation
profoundly and for the worse. What
the japanese have done with impunit5
in Asia, the Poles fear the Germans
may undertake in the Corridor. and the
Germans suspect the Poles of plotting
In respect of East Prussia And the
Manehurian episode has for the time
being shattered all faith in Geneva as
Q barrier to aggression.
Storm Center Is Germany.
War cannot then be excluded from
calculation for the next year. Even
less is it possible to overlook the posi-
roUnlI1finT9 Av16
while the field for domestic upheaval
IS very wide, the storm center is in
Germany. There the breakdown Of the
whole government machinery is well
nigh complete while the social and
moral disjntegration is most apparent
At the moment Germany patiently
stands face to face with the possibility
of new attempt upon the part of the
Nationalist to seize power and first
by a military dictatorship, headed by
Gen. Won Schleicher, and then by a
restoration endured by the aged and
falling President. to re-establish the
empire and the HohenzollernS. But the
first experiment in this direction, head
ed by Papen, failed ignominiously and
the new is, SO far, opposed by Com
munists, Socialists and Hitlerites, con-
stituting 4l6 of the 582 members of the
Reichstag.
Visibly the Nazis are breaking up but
not less unmistakably at least a third
and that the most violent, would go
over to the Communists were there to
be monarchial coup detat. The re-
suit could and even probably would be
civil disorder, perhaps rising to actual
civil war. Moreover, the truth little
perceived in America in that govern
ment itself has become discredited in
Germany, the people are divided into
arreconcilahle political groups, passion
ately bitter against each other and in
capable of cooperation, which alone
could make governmental machinery
work.
But once more, as in the case of war
having its origin in German circum-