Evening star., 1933-03-11
BUILDING DECLINE
BELIEVED HALTED
Statistician Says Condition
Presages Revival, De-
spite Crisis.

Despite the fact that the prospects
for residential, building during 1888 cam
not be considered promising in the light
Of current banking difficulties. it is be-
coming apparent that the progressive
acceleration in the annual rate of de-
cline in the industry since 1923 has
finally been broken. in the opinion of
L S. Sckritman, chief statistician for
the F. w. Dodge Corporation, New
York
Money cannot BE- expected logically
to flow into enterprises where the spec
ulatiVe hazards are indefinable." Mr.
Schnitman observes. What, then, is
the prospect for residential building in
the light of the imponderables of the
times?
Residential building during 1888
may not attain the dollar total contract
volume reported in 1882 However the
progressive acceleration in the annual
rate of decline in residential building
since 1923 appears finally to have been
broken. This circumstance is a ccndl-
ton precedent to revival Though it
Is becoming increasingly doubtful
whether residential recovery can make
headWay in the current year, it is at the
same time quite probable that the con-
tract record for 1888 will for all in
tents and purposes mark the low point
of what until now has appeared as a
bottomleSs pit.
Decline in 1882
With the possible exception of 1918.
a year when requirements of war sur
mounted all other activity, residential
building construction during the year
1882 was probably lower than in any
year since the beginning of the present
century. For the 81 States east of the
Rocky Mountains. residential contracts
awarded during 1892 totaled $3.50, 900.
This figure represented decline of al
most 66 per cent from 1881 and was
only 10 per cent of the dollar volume
reported during the peak year, 1923.
The loss in the quantative volume of
residential building was not nearly so
great if allowance were to be made for
the drastic decline in construction costs
during the interim
Referring to the existing economic
conditions as they relate to building
Mr.. Schnitman says:
The processes of economic readjuSt-
ment have accelerated. and in this fac
tor is to be found the most hopeful
signs of the cataclysmic period through
which we are passing Real estate ad
justments. general debt moratorla-to
say nothing OF present banking difficult
ties-are but transitory, and though
they have brought with them many
hardships. afford a reasonable basis fo-
hope for 1894 and beyond.
NeccSs:.y Tyre This Year.
In the meantime, what residential
building will occur in 1888 will be
largely of the necessity types to meet
real demands wherever they may exist
Small-house construction Will probably
fare relatively he-ter than apartments
and hotels. though in this latter cate
CORY a siZable amount CT moderniZation
work can reasonably be expected to
swell the otherwi5e negligible indicated
total of new conS.TuctIC1.
Whatever the residential building
contract total for the current year may
turnout to be it will be definitely below
minimum requirements, with due regard
for IRE losses, the needs arising out Of
population increases and abandonments
OF out-moded, hazardous dwelling
units
All in ell, The present low level of
res dental building seems to take on
many CT the aspects OF recuperative
power. which when once started should
provide logical basis foc firm and
genuine revival in construction activity
generally