Evening star., 1933-01-19
DISCOVERS "OLD-FAST1IONED"
WINTERS REALLY WERE COLDER
Scientists Charts Show Climate Has
Grown Warmer Since Civil War Period,
but Future Trend Is Still Unknown.

necessary to Offset the abnormally cold
Winters Of the present period.
Mr.. Kincer has prepared his 20-year-
average charts on the season basis. The
greatest variations he found were expe-
rienced in the Winters. There has not
been much difference in the average
temperature Of the Summers Springs
have been growing warmer since 1900.
Perhaps the most curious condition was
found for the Autumns. For the past
100 years, he found, they have been
growing gradually warmer.
Winters Growing Shorter.
Besides growing warmer, Mr.. Kincer
finds the Winters Of the United States
as a whole are growing shorter. He
takes the period between the first and
last killing frosts as the period of Win
ter. The season. he finds, has dropped
13 days since 1891 in Washington. The
same Is generally true of the other cities
whose records he has analyzed. A Win
ter in Milwaukee, for instance, Is 20
days shorter now than was the case in
1899 Boston shows about the same ef-
feet as Washington. Curiously enough,
the 20-year-average dates for the first
killing froStS in Boston is about eight
days earlier than in Washington, par
adox which Mr.. Kincer explains by the
effect of the sea in preventing sudden,
radical changes in temperature.
After studying United States temper
atures over more than a century, Mr..
Kincer attempted to record climatologi-
cal trends over the whole world, but was
able to find accurate records only for
the past so years. First he took the
records of cities in high northern lati-
Minneapolis, Toronto, Berufjiord,
Iceland; Aberdeen and Copenhagen. He
found the same tendencies, only more
marked, that stood out in the century
records for the four cities of the United
States.
Then he examined the records for
cities in low latitudes-MeXico City, Rio
de Janiero. Florence, Italy: Palma
Spain; and Alexandria. Egypt. Here
trends of any kind were much less
marked, as would be expected. but in SO
far as they could be established were
lust the GPposite ss Of those found @ in the the
records for Santiago, Chile; Buenos
and Adelaide, all in high southern lati-
| tudes. The trends, he found, were al
most exactly the same as those in the
corresponding northern zone, only much
less marked. This was to be expected
since as these cities are in close prox-
unity to large bodies Of water which
would have the effect Of equalizing the
temperatures.
Cycles Not Established.
His records. Mr.. Kincer says, are fal
| from establishing definite cycles, such
as those Of the yearly seasons. The fig
ures show that the world has passed
through one definitely cold period, last
ing approximately 40 years. But they
show only the beginning of one hot
period and the end of another. The
records do not go back far enough to
show how long continued was the warn
period out Of which the world slowly
was emerging at the beginning Of tht
nineteenth century. There is no way
of predicting how long the present ho
period will last. Warm periods may bt
much longer or shorter than the 40-yeal
cold period. 1t is mot improbable, Mr.
Kincer explains. that the length of the
climatic trends does not follow any
cycle law at all but may be purely
arbitrary.
This may be indicated by a chart OF
two-year averages extending over a