Evening star., 1933-01-22
ACTION OF GENEVA
MAY FORCE BREAK
Withdrawal From League
Would Give Toxic Freer
Hand in East.
BY CONSTANTINE BROWN.

Ia WINS NV AAANL DSOVANS
Developments at Geneva and in China
were carefully watched yesterday In
responsible governmental departments in
Washing-a.
According to reports received late last
night there seems little doubt that the
Japanese will break off relations with
the League of Nations, knowing full
we'll that the League will not be in posi-
ton to take any positive steps against
Japan, outside the APPLICATION of para
graph 4 of Article Is Of the Covenant,
which does not provide for any sane
tions but only recommendations such
as the adoptions Of the Lytton report.
According to the Geneva diplomats,
jana welcomes such a move by the
League, which will give her more COM
plete freedom of action in the Far
East; in the meantime the Japanese
diplomats maintain that wh2n the mill
tary are through with the operations
they have in mind and have succeecea
in establishing themselves solldly on tne
mainland of Asia. the League Will b5
only too eager to have Japan pacK anu
let bygones be byeones.
This point Of view is not sEareo ny
many of the European diplomats, VINO
maintain that If Japan leaves the
League she will forfeit all the aavan-
taees she has heretofore en-. .oySd from
such a membership and it is pcssio
that the League might withdraw from
japan the mandate over territories N
the Pacific with which she vas e
trusted at the end OF the var. ll;e
japanese seem not to very ap VI sAcii
a step on the part O. the Leagu' sAl;.
tha .Japane-e eove-nmert la7 is reply
ready: Come and take them
Provocaticns Expected.
But while the situation at Geneva
Is somewhat puzzling, the situation IN
China is much clearer. -
According to the latest reports, the
japanese Army has decldeo TO Degil
its operation in China proper, soulh
of the Great Wall, at the earliest pos
sible moment.
The action of the japanese Army
will be preceded By the usual cut
breaks which will give Japan the
necessary excuse to be Esed later en-
that she has been provoked into action.
The speech of the japanese forelg!
secretary is considered in olp!ometlc
quarters as a warning to China, but
what is more important, Japan's ahol
has arrived in Tientsin this week. III
the person of Brig. Gen. Doihara, VINO
has been playing in Asia TIE same
role as the famous Col. Lawrence CT
Arabia played in Arabia during the
World War.
Gen. Doihara. an officer of the
japanese general staff. is specialist
on China. He made his reputation as
major during the Russo-Japanese
War Of 1906 and has kept in c!ose
touch with the mainland OF A7ia ever
since. It was Doihara who organized
the Mukden incident He had been
In that town for about six weeks b2tcre
the trouble started and those IN clcse
touch with Japanese affairs knew wn3t
his presence in Mukden meant. II Is
the same Gen Doihara who was the
alibi of the other japanese friendly
interventions" at Tsitsihar and Chin
chow. and finally it is reported that it
was Doihara who engineered the Mon
golian trouble few weeks ago, Wnen
the Soviet agents at Urga were ethel
massacred by the Mongol princelings
or expelled from that territory.
Trying to Buy Leader.
His presence at Tientsin is ominous.
He is reported to be trying to buy on
the commander Of the fChinese forces
so that there will be no serious opposi-
ton when the japanese decide to oc-
cupy that city. How successful he has
been is so far not known, but the re-
ports from that town indicate that b.
sides his endeavors to prevent serious
clash with the Chinese he is also en-
gineering an incident which would be
used by the Japanese as an excuse to go
into Tientsin
The reports that the Chinese are
Messing some 250,000 men along the
Great Wall are received with certain
amount of skepticism in well Informed
quarters in Washington. The figure
seems exaggere ted. On the other hind.
it is said that the troops which March"l
Chang has at his disposal carnct b.
compared in fighting value with those
which opposed the japanese Army al
Shanghai.
They have neither the same military
preparation nor have they the same
adequate equipment. Consequently. 1t
is believed that the japanese Army will
have an easier task in China today
than it had at Shanghai.
Situation More Serious.
But the situation, from the interna-
Sional point of view, is considered more
serious than it was last March. There
are q good many commercial and edu-
Cational institutions scattered around
the territory which it is presumed will
be invaded by the japanese. There are
also less important international forces
to protect those settlements. Yet there
are enough foreign troops to intervene
in case of necessity, and they will have
a right and a duty to intervene be-
cause of the treaty concluded after the
Boxer revolution with China.
While it seems improbable that the
Japanese government will seek to pro-
woke incidents, it is feared that the
commanders of the Japanese troops may
not be able to prevent clashes with the
European and American residents Of
those districts. Hence the apprehension
which exists in the world chancelleries
in regard to the next move of the Japa-
nese in China.