Evening star., 1933-05-21
WORLD TENSION LIFTED,
BUT FUTURE is OBSCURE
Speedy Agreements at Both Geneva and
London Unlikely Despite Hitler's Bril-
liant Retreat From Arms Stand.

Have the French the slightest inten-
ton to abancon within five years the1r
heavy arms, thus shifting the balance
of power in the sense of weakening
France and strengthening Germany and
Italy, unless. at the same time, they
receive definite mutual aid guarantees
from Great Britain and the United
States?
Finally, what will Japan say to all
this?
It Is possible to assume that by some
miracle the atmosphere will be clear
and at least the broad outlines of agree
ment will be reached by the middle OF
June. But the probabilities are that
the time is too short.
What appears more likely Is new
tension and a crisis about then, under
the stress of which the Economic Con-
ference will meet in Lcndon. Economic
problems appear hardly less stubborn
than disarmament. There Is not yet
the slightest real evidence that the
vicious circles paralyzing the economic
talks have been broken.
Will Great Britain agree to stabilize
unless there IS first some definite, final
war-debt settlement?
Nobody in Europe thinks 50.
Can the United States stabilize even
IA
lice level which seems to be the cen
ter of President Roosevelt's economic
policy and to which he seems to plan
to s"opt the future value Of the dollar?
European experts doubt it.
Debt Action Unlikely.
Is a war-debt settlement in the near
future possible?
According to the information Of Eu-
ropean chancelleries. President Roose-
welt would like to deal drastically and
promptly with this question, but, in view
of the opposition in Congress. he feels
unable to do so for the present.
But If there are no war debt settle
ment and no British and American
stabilization. how can quotas and tariffs
be effectively discussed? For, abviously,
no country Is going to undertake new
tariff agreements or remove its quota
restrictions in the face of fiuctuating
currencies. Cooperation to raise and
stabilize prices seems also to depend
on the stabilization Of currencies.
AS for the United States proposals
fer remonetizing silver. they are looked
on with good deal of disfavor abroad
They are, indeed. widely considered to
be mainly a drive on the part Of lead,
copper and silver producers In their
own interest.
Such being the outlook, MacDonald's
plan appears to be to try to conduct
negotiations simultaneously on all
points What appears likely is that the
Economic Conference will open with a
lot of speeches in favor of international
cooperation, each nation warning the
others of the dangers involved in non
cooperation. Then numerous technical
committees will be appointed and while
these committees discuss the details
throughout the Summer. the main con-
ference viii be suspended and Great
Britain, France and Italy win endeavor
to draw the United States into war
debt negotiations with . view to, a
dime for dollar settlement as fore
seen in the Lausanne agreements.
Meanwhile, will the world stand still?
Will nothing more happen? Will the
dollar continue to fluctuate? Will the
American price boom hold? Can Swift
zerland, Holland and France stay on
the gold standard? Can Germany get
the new foreign loan it needs?
Optimism may be justified. Signs OF
real leadership are indubitably appear
ing here and there. But even imme-
diately the future Is still obscure.
tCopyrieht. 1933D