Evening star., 1933-01-01
WAR AND REVOLUTION SEEN
POSSIBLE In EUROPE In '33
Polish Corridor and Adriatic Are Centers
of Likely International Strife-Ger-
many May Spread Domestic Uprisings.

balLlC TO the aegean, WleTe the gT6dL
depression has brought about condi-
tons which almost defy exaggeration.
1t is true, and 1t is an enormous basis
for hope, that Soviet Russia Is in no
condition or mood to exploit the suffer-
ings of the peoples of Central Europe
and that any explosion will come
against rather than with the support
of Moscow. But the material out OF
which revolutions in history have most
frequently emerged is everywhere dis
coverable.
When one turns to the question Of
possible recovery or, more exactly, 10
the possibility of a turn in the tloe,
for 1t is universally recognized now
that the road back to prosperity will
be long, the fact stands out clearly
that the first step must be some clear
| ing away of the barriers to trade and
commerce, which in the past three
years have been multiplied as a con-
| sequence of depression. In much OF
Central Europe international commerce
! has fallen to the level of barter, while
restrictions upon gold movements have
resulted in practical paralysis.
Precisely at this point, too. one comes
upon the complete break between Euro
pean and American opinions. Europe
believes after IA years of bitter expert
ence with reparations that nothing can
be accomplished toward recovery until
there is swept away all the vast mess
of intergovernmental debts and war in
IDENTITIES. 1t sees In these the major
obstacle to any return to normal con-
ditions. And at Lausanne the victori-
Gus nations agreed to pass the sponge
over the whole total of German repa-
rations, accepting in lieu of these a
promise to pay a small sum under con-
ditions which amounted to practical
cancellation.
Serves Notice for Revision.
Having made the Lausanne agree
ments conditional, however, Europe now
waits upon the United States to follow
the, example thus given and deal with
war debts in what it regards as SINH
larly realistic fashion. Britain in pay
ing and France in refusing. at least
temporarily, to pay the December in
stallment of war debts, have served no
tice upon Washington that revision is
inevitable and by revision both coun-
tries mean practical cancellation, such
as was done at Lausanne. And since
the view of the American Congress and
public Is totally contrary to the Euro
pean, the New Year opens with a dead
lock
II that deadlock is not broken 1t is
clear that certain things must occur
First of these is the indefinite post
ponement Of any international Coop
Grafton such as has been foreshadowed
in the plan for an economic conference
Not less certain Is the default of all
debtor nations in the matter of the
June insta,lments of their obligation to
the United States. Seven out of IL ma
tions have already followed the example
of France in deferring payment, but
Britain, most praised for her recent
course, will be most uncompromising in
her refusal to pay again upon existing
terms.
The truth is that Europe is now re-
solved neither to pay the war debts nor
to make armament concessions in re-
turn for debt reductions. 1t regards
the removal of debts as step equally
important to the United States and to
herself, because it sees this as the
necessary preliminary to any economic
and financial recovery in the world
Again, in the face of the present posi-
bilities Of war and of revolution in Eu-
rope. which have indicated. London
and Paris are equally aware real reduc-
ton Of ornaments is out of the ques-
ton.
Tariff Plan Stunned.
On the other hand, the apparent view
OF President-elect Roosevelt that spe-
cial tariff bargains can be made as an
offset for debt reduction meets little
approval in Europe. For today Britain
buys five times as much from America
as 1t sells and France at least twice
And in the existing situation the prob
lem Is as to how the purchasers are to
pay for their present excess of Ameri-
can buying, if the American market is
to remain closed by existing tariff re-
Strictions.
Between March and June the great
differences between the United States
and Europe are going TO be the basis
for difficult negotiations Until these
negotiations reach some definite end
all progress toward international action,
either by general conference or
through private arrangements, will be
halted. If these negotiations fail to
end the present deadlock, the paralysis
in Europe and in the world will con-
tinue. And the first consequence OF
this paralysis will be disclosed in the
continued shrinkaga of American ex-
deflation.
II the deadlock should become final
through failure of the debtor nations to
obtain terms which their publics and
parliaments would accept, then there is
grave danger that there may be politi-
cal repercussions. Already the fall of
Herriot has removed that Frenchman
most sincerely anxious to bring about
Franco German reconciliation and
European adjustment on the basis of
the old BRAND conceptions. 1t has
similarly discredited the Liberal parties
in France and produced a split In their
ranks.
We will find, therefore, that with
failure to agree upon debts the pros
poets of international cooperation to
promote world recovery during 1888 are
slight, and the possibilities of war or
revolution are ominous indeed.
tCopyright. 1933)