Evening star., 1933-03-12
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United States or Great Britain alone, or
even the two together, would not be
effective since Japan or China could
procure in other countries all the NUM-
tions they could pay for. Indeed, the
United States, as Japan's best custom
er, might well be in the position Of
! furnishing to Japan the means with
which to buy abroad the military sup
plies which our embargo prevented her
acquiring here.
am not referring to the moral salts
faction in this country of not supplying
the means Of warfare to both or to one
of the countries involved, nor to the
effect Of the sentiment itself in the
country shut of from access to our
factories, but merely to the effect on its
obviously be nothing SO long as the
country had access to the factories of
Europe, eager in this depression to fill
| orders. Realizing this, the British
| foreign minister said during the debate
! in Parliament that the munitions en-
barge already laid may not be continued
| indefinitely without international agree
| ment. and he will permit contracts out
standing at the time of its pro0ama-
| ton to be filled and munitions made
under them to be exported.
Therefore, any serious attempt to
affect the situation in the Far East by
| an embargo on munitions of war must
be a joint effort carried on by all the
| important nations able to supply NUM-
! tionS. An organ which could carry out
~ ic ho 80
League Of Nations formed to observe the
| situation. and which Russia and the
United States have been asked to Join.
Either through this committee, or
! through direct negotiations between the
| governments concerned, an embargo on
| the shipment of munitions of war either
| to Japan or to both countries might
conceivably be put into effect How
| far flung such an agreement would have
! to be Is made evident by the news that
| the Japanese have been buying nitrates
in Chile. Nitrates. the base Of all ex-
| plosiyes, are one Of the most important
of military supplies.
Problem to Be Considered.
Suppose, however, that 1t were pos
against Japan, what would be its re-
suits? We must first OF all consider
that We are not dealing with great
| war, but with a conflict involving on
| the part of Japan 100000, or at the
most 1900 men campaigning against
an army not well equipped with the
means of modern warfare. The prob
| lem, therefore, must not be confused
| with that of the allies in their gigantic
| contest with the Central Powers, with
millions of men in the line on both
| sides and with expenditure in ammu-
milton in a single day in excess of what
| has already been used in the whole
Manchurian affair.
We must also remember that Japan
| is a highly industrial nation with
arsenals. navy yards and many private
plants which could be used to make war
supplied. She has even small automo-
| bile factories. It is also important to
| note that the Japanese now have hold
of the greatest arsenal in China. that
| built at Mukden by Chang Tso-lin and
| maintained by his son. Chang Hsuer-
| liang. an arsenal which contributed to
! the strong position of the Manchurian
J government in the civil wars in China.
i 1t undoubtedly would hamper the
| Japanese army somewhat If access to
| the munitions plants of the world were
/ denied them, but 1t does not seem pos
| sible that such an embargo would have
any appreciable effect on the outcome
of the operations so long as they are
limited to the present contestants. In
careful study on economic sanctions
made for the Twentieth Century Fund,
it is said that against Japan mo NUM-
tions embargo could hope to obtain
serious results" We are not consider
| ing here the consequences to either
Japan or China of such an embargo if
| general war should break out. In
! that case the situation would be so
entirely different that 1t would be i'm
possible to forecast the effect of en-
bargoes.
Only in one particular might the
embargo be serious, and that Is In re-
spect to the supply Of airplanes. At
present, however, the japanese superb
ority in the air seems well established
in Northern China. They have been
importing considerable quantities OF
airplanes and parts in the last year
| They can probably keep control of the
air with the present type Of fighting,
and will undoubtedly be able to de-
velop planes of their own before their
present equipment falls below that OF
their opponents.
Extensive Arms Purchase.
In fact, an embargo might not be,
on the whole. a bad thing economically
for the japanese. General stats are
! famous for their overestimates Of needs
| and for extravaganza in purchases Sc
! long as Japan has credit abroad and
access to munitions factories, the gen.
eral staff will probably buy to the ex-
| tent of its credits and will thereby
weaken the foreign credit so important
| for the maintenance of japanese trade
With China the situation might be
quite different. The comment of both
| belligerents and of neutral individuals
on the British embargo made this
clear, though the embargo by one ma
| ton, If it goes into effect, will not
count for much materially. China Is
far inferior to Japan in her industrial
equipment and left to herself could not
compete in manufacture of munitions
of war with the island empire. An
embargo on shipments of munitions to
both countries. therefore, would work
unequally on the two: it would not Sc
riously impede the japanese, while it
would be an element in weakening the
Chinese resistance.
! Were an embargo extended farther
| to raw materials necessary for military
supplies, it is obvious that action by
only one or two countries would be in
/ effective. A principal import OF this
character to Japan and China from the
United States is petroleum, and should
the United States alone embargo ship
ments of petroleum it would be SIM
| pie matter to route the supplies
| through France or Great Britain or
India or some other accommodating
middleman to either Of the combatants
If American gasoline were sold to
nationals of another country the United
States would have no right to prevent
their selling to whomever they pleased
+, and it is hard to see how an American
oil company could be penalized for
selling gasoline abroad. even though
that gasoline might eventually. through
an Intermediary, find its way to a
country against which an embargo was
laid.
In fact, however, there are ample
| S,1pp1ieS Of petro1e,1Yn in the Orient