Evening star., 1933-08-20
Weather Abnormalities Studied
BY FREDERIC ]. HASKIN,

People do do something about the
weather, in spite of the carping Of the
late Mr.. Clemens. They study it, and
one Of the most recent results of such
study has been the discovery by Charles
D. Reed Of the United States Weather
Bureau that the maddest weather has
method. He has found that there ex-
lists sort Of paradox in the fern of
law Of weather abnormality. In short,
this means that one can, on the basis
Of present thickness in the weather,
make a fairly shrewd guess at future
thickness.
The season of 1888 thus far has been
rather abnormal There have been
somewhat unusual alterations Of ex-
tremely hot weather and unseasonably
cool weather. Sweltering heat in some
places has been matched for records
of abnormality by Summer snowfalls
This new study is especially interest
ing in view of the fact that it is only
recently that the Weather Bureau has
admitted the possibility of forecasting
weather more than about SO hours in
advance. Gradually, this science of
long-range weather forecasting, already
well advanced by savants outside the
official service, has been accepted.
Mr.. Reed, for example, on the basis
vations, has announced that where
great abnormality continues for ap-
proximately 80 days and roughly CO.
incides with arbitrary calendar divi-
sions, 1t is easy to predict that the
average temperature of some succeed
ing months will be above or below nor
NAL" He believes that continued study
will result in fuller DEVELOPMENT of
this theory and in the probable estab-
lishment Of periods, not necessarily al
lied to present calendar divisions, which
will mark weather cycles of short du-
ration. He goes on to assert that his
studies have shown that the greater
the abnormality the more certain the
sequence"
Rule of Persistent Abnormalities.
This contrasts to a considerable ex-
tent with a long accepted assumption
concerning weather on the part of
vation Of the inexpert that now the
weather will settle down" Such an
observation, made following a short
season Of abnormality, is not we'll
founded in the light of the findings OF
Mr.. Reed. A direct illustration is fur
nished by specific observations made
in Illinois. 1t was found that in seven
out of 10 cases when June temperatures
averaged 8 degrees above normal, in
stead Of settling down, July averaged
above normal. A 3-degree average
above normal Is an extreme abnor-
mality. Three degrees may seem to
the lay mind a slight difference, but
when it becomes an average it goes
far into the realm of abnormality. For
example, it is stated that # the Win
ter temperatures of New England
should average only 5 degrees lower
over a period of years, the region would
become uninha bitable.
Similar observations, in other years,
established that when June tenn
pratures averaged three degrees below
normal over Illinois, July temperatures
also were below normal This was OBJ
served in eight out Of II cases. A
fact easy for the layman to remember
is that tine observations strongly sug-
gest that January sets the pace for tine
Winter months and that June sets it for
the Summer months for a good many
States. The country is so broad that
an absolute rule for the entire Nation
is not sought to be established. For
example, the Southwest and the Pacific