Evening star., 1933-11-26
BRITAIN SEEKING TO AVOID
ENTRANCE INTO NEW WAR
Statesmen Are Caught Between European
Situation and Public Demand to
Stay Out of Dispute.

IuUCldLlOn Oh LIle treaty OI te1SdlllcS.
If Hitler should declare that the mill
tary provisions of the treaty were now
dead and Germany purposed to arm
as she chose, then the French would
have to fish or cut bait And the pres
ent government. while it took firm
tone at the start, is dominated by
Radical-Socialist influences and is not
ready either to undertake war OF
prevention or force the armament issue
before the League, because in the matter
of war French sentiment is not yet
ready, and so far as the League is con-
cerned, even a favorable decision would
call for execution.
Every sign that is now dtscoyeraole
points to a period of drifting. Europe
has definitely passed out Of the Locarno
stage in which peace by understanding
and Franco-German reconciliation were
the chief ideas. The League, Locarno,
SO far as it was Franco-German agree
ment; the Kollogg pact-all those de-
tails in organized peace are done for.
On the other hand, while European
statesmen and publics see clearly
enough what the eventual aIternatlve
must be, they are not ready for the
issue.
National Group Likely.
Nothing can actually happen until the
French and British peoples make up
their minds. If the French presently de-
eide that their security is in peril ana
that there is no peaceful escape from
the present impasse, we shall see gov
ernment of national concentration In
France, with Tardieu and Herriot back
and Sarraut doubtless third figure OF
importance. When that taxes place.
then one may look for an end of the
present policy of floating and expect
quick and significant decisions TO be
made.
In the same way, when the British
decide whether they are going TO try
to get out Of the Continent and stay
out or continue trying to bring France
and Germany together in some form OF
compromise, which, without having per-
manent value. may bring about tenn
porary truce. then other developments
may take place. If the British decide
to quit Europe and thus to abandon
the French. the government OF ma
tional concentration may come quickly
in Paris and the way will then be clear
for a war of prevention.
On the whole, however. it would
seem as if the campaign Of 1888 was
over and that the various statesman
ships were likely to go into Winter
quarters for the time being. That CAM
paign, without having produced any
decisions between Germany and her
opponents. has enormously cleared the
air. 1t has eliminated the League and
the Disarmament Conference as pos
sible instruments Of conclllaton. II
/ has disclosed the issues between France
/ and her allies on the one hand and
/ Germany on the other as basically
! irreconcilable. But 1t has also 0is-
/ closed Germany too weak and France
too unwilling to- precipitate q con-
fiict now. |
Long-range bornbardments In the
form of speeches OF public men and
OUTPOST firing between rival parties
in the British and French Parllaments
would seem to be the normal expec-
taticn. OF course an incident In Aus
/ tria could produce new crisis over
night. And eventually Hitler must
resume his offensive against Vienna,
/ because it is the only direction in
which he can move aggressively with
out meeting the armed opposition OF
/ France and her allies. So long as he
merely operates inside of Austria
/ through his allies and along Austrian
( frontiers by demonstrations, neither
France nor Italy is likely to move.
New War Scare Seen.
In the meantime. while Macdonald
is try ing to perform a miracle in con-
} ciliation. Mussolini will doubtless en-
I deavor to carry out some form OF
| maneuver in practical politics which
will let him hold the balance of power
| between Berlin and France and harvest
| the incidental prestige. Sometime
perhaps in a few weeks, perhaps not
for several months-we shall have
new clash. When that happens, there
will be a new war scare and new
! period of European tension. Such in
/ cidents are likely to be frequent IN
! the next few years and one of them
/ may, lead to war again. So far, how
ever while France and her allies on
/ the one hand and Germany on the
other have taken lines which must
lead to war in the end, neither Is yet
prepared for such an event.
Hence the outlook is for a troubled
but not critical Winter. With the
/ coming of Spring. when troops can be
moved again, the situation may change.
But for myself, ! do not expect war
next Spring or even next year. One
/ of the best informed of British states
! men recently telephoned American
/ friend that he expected war within ID
months At least that statement sup
plies an interesting sidelight on how
statesmen are talking privately. But.
| in any event. the thing to watch is the
| character of the next French cabinet.
| Before France acts there will be a
national government, and that is not
! CCopyriEht. 1933)