Evening star., 1933-11-12
NATIONS TEMPER POINTS
TO CONFLICT In EUROPE
Danger of American Participation Ii
Assured Unless Government Scraps
Present Policies.
BY FRANK H. sIMoNDs


l. following letter which Is in fact
not unlike many inquiries ad-
i dressed to me during the
months since the rise of Adolf
Hitler to power and the beginning of
the present period Of crisis and tension
in Europe:
do you really believe that Europe is
going to have another war? And, II
YOU do believe that, do you think that
there is any danger that we shall be
involved?" I do think Europe is day
by day coming nearer and nearer to a
general conflict like that of 1914 and
gressively becoming more and more
dangerously involved in European po-
litical disputes and thus running ever
increasing risks of becoming belliger-
ent again as before. / viii try to make
my reasons for these convictions clear.
AS to the question of next war in
Europe: 1t is plain that wars result
from two things-a state OF fact and
state of mind. The state of fact is dis
closed in such territorial quarrels as
those about the Polish Corridor, Upper
Silesia, the question of the union OF
Austria and Germany The state of
mind results from these quarrels and
gradually produces condition of sus-
piston, fear, hysteria. Peoples begin 10
believe other nations are deliberately
planning to attack them They scent
conspiracies, suspect aggressions and not
only talk of war, but compel their gov
ernments to begin to prepare for war.
Now, after Is years, it is not necessary
to establish in the American mind that
the state of fact in Europe is one that
makes for war. The termes of the
peace treaties made in 1919, and par
ticularly the terms of the Treaty of Ver-
sailles, have created frontiers which the
peoples who lost the last war will not
accept as permanent and those who won
it will not agree to revise. In order to
protect what they have acquired one
set of peoples have We, armed. armed made ALI ALI
promise. On the other side, peoples
who lost-and again the Germans in
particular-have demanded the right to
rearm and are now doing it without
legal right, with the declared purpose
Of recovering their lost provinces.
Fortifications Ready.
SO much for the state of fact Now
as to the state Of mind. And in this
respect the daily press dispatches from
Europe serve as q sort of fever chart.
In them we have read in recent weeks
number Of significant reports. Let US
look at few: In September the Presi-
dent of France, returning from an oS-
tentatious inspection of the fortifca-
tions which the French have since the
war constructed to cover the provinces
Of Observation-Disclosures from
Germany by the war-reported that
these were ready and France therefore
prepared for war. And dispatches added,
not less significantly, that French troops
tx~- Aor ro1 r~vr To ff1au1 that the
frontier garrisons have been reorgan-
lied ON a war footing.
IN October the leader of the Tory
party in Britain publicly asserted. with
direct and unmistakable intent TO
attract German attention that England
was prepared to fulfill her obligations
under the Locar11o pact But such
obligations would compel he- to move
another expeditionary army to the
continent If German forces crossed the
Rhine And q little later German news
papers announced feverish activity in
British arsenals and arms factories.
while in England public men asserted
that British naval resources were made
quate to protect their lines OF COM
imunication in the face of existing
dangers.
From Belgium came the statement
that engineers were at work hastily
constructing Notifications facing the
German frontier to cover the gap
through which Kluek's army slipped
round Liege and crossed the Meuse in
1914. Even IN Switzerland panic was
produced by a widely published report
that Germany was planning to strike
at France through the Swiss Jura and
the Swiss military force is being in
creased In the Polish Corridor, SO 1t
has also been stated garrisons in Thorn,
Bromberg and Graudenz have been
brought up to war strength.
Finally a British newspaper CORE
spondent has been expelled from Ger
many for incorrectly reporting the
massing and parading of armed German
troops. The incident has led to violent
oenunciations in the press of both coun-
tries. German landlords are being re-
warded by bounties for providing bomb
proof refugees for their tenants. In July,
Berlin had en- air raid scare in which
so the German press alleged-foreign
planes had flown over the capital. Last
of all, the boys in German schools are
now being taught rife practice and
bombing as a part Of their regular
education.
Germany Must Play for Time.
1t is therefore impossible to disguise
the fact that Europe is at once divided
by disputes which are causes for war and
in a state of mind out of which war
comes. For three years the atmosphere
in the Old World has steadily been
worsening. Now We are back in the
situation which preceded the World
War ] do not undertake 10 say war
will come next week or even next year.
The Germans, who in the nature Of
things must be the ggressors-because
they desire to recover what they lost
and acquire what they have not
realize that they are on the military
side in no position to risk war with
France. Poland and Czechoslovakia, who
are armed and fortified. They must
play for time in which to prepare, and
a war now which would mean defeat
would certainly bring down Hitler and
his regime
The situation is plainly one Of great
tenseness. And there is not one single
sign anywhere of anything which could
or might occur to arrest the direction
in which things are moving-wllich Is
unquestionably that of war. l do not
believe a war is imminent in the sense
that any nation or government Is TO-DAY
preparing a declaration OF war. the
next war will not come that way. But
the european cohtfnent mas pecotnS as q q
powder magazine and sparks are flying
in all directions I do believe that in
the end, in one year or in three, war viii
come, because to prevent it nations must
renounce purposes and governments
abandon policies. and of such stateman-
shin there is no sign.
Now as to American participation II
that war: I assume that 1t is the reso-
lution of the vast mass Of the American
people to keep out of it. assume that
it is the intention of the present admin
istration to keep us out Of war. Bu
that was the intention of the Wilson
administration 10 years ago Yet Mr.
Wilson was reelected on a platform Of
"he kept us cut of the war" only just
before he took us in. And in the course
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