Evening star., 1933-10-22

coming an OiO man WOTlQ!
Already its increase in population
is slowing down, already there are
fewer children being born and more old men
and women living to ripe ages. reaping the
benefits of scientific world.
This old mans world which America is be-
coming will differ IN many important respects
from the America that we know. Careful PLAN
ners for the future in business and Government
taking the long look ahead to see where
our population is tfavelingA
Since Nautilus, the British scientific prophet
of a crowded hungry world wrote a hun
dred years ago there have been many intensive
studies of the populations of the earth ranging
from the comprehensive decennal United
States census to detailed analyses of the effect
particular factors have upon the rise of peoples.
Malthus who was really not quite so gloomy
prophet he has been pictured, foresaw
neither the effects of birth control nor the add
ed fruitfulness of agriculture that was to come
from the advances of science.
During the past decade one of the most ac-
tive centers of population research has been at
Miami University oxford. Ohio, where pub
Usher founded research inquiry into popula-
tion problems Drs. Warren S. Thompson and
P. K. Whelpton consequently have been able to
look into the future and to make scientific
guesses as to what the censuses of future years
will reveal.
THIS matter of population is more than a
mere mathematical curiosity or a chamber
of commerce pride in large numbers. The auto
manufacturer who plans for the future decades
must know whether he will need to make new
cars to replace old, worn out ones only or
whether there will be added millions who will
buy his product Realtors want to know how
many building sites their new subdivisions
should contain. Educators need to know
whether school and college enrollments will
increase decrease
Uncle Sans national family has grown enor-
mously since he broke away from Britan's
apron strings. From about $500 900 in 1776, the
United States population has increased to over
l22.5OO,OOO In 1890. almost 5O-iold In little
more than a century and a half. Since 1900
the population gained about 100000, or
nearly two-thlrdS as much as 1t did in the
century and quarter preceding.
Optinaists, reasoning loosely past.
thinking with boom psychology. would deduce
from the past the idea that the United States
of America will continue to increase in num-
berS of its citizens.
Assuming that the numerical increase in the
future will be about the same as it has been
in recent decades it is possible to arrive at the
estimate that the population will be about
100000 in 1910 and about 245.0O000, or
about double todays population, at the end of
this century, 1000 AID. More conservative Is
the logistic curve of Drs. Raymond Pearl and
Lowell j. Reed of Johns Hopkins University,
which indicates population of 185,OOO,oOo in
1000 AID.
But Drs Thompson and Whelpton do not
foresee such large increases in population in
the course of this century. They set about
145,0O0 900 as the peak in United States popu-
lation to be reached in 1870. BY 1880 the total
population of this Nation will be well on the
down grade in numbers.
THE trends of births, deaths and immigration
rather than the matter of the population
change itself, are estimated in the Thompson
Whelpton prognostications of population. The
births reached their peaks in 1921 and have
been decreasing ever since then. The trend in