Evening star., 1933-08-27
NEW YORK FUSION FACES
TASK TO BEAT TAMMANY
Analysis of Prospective Vote Still Gives
Advantage in City to Demo-
cratic Organization.

3,750,O00 are eligible voters Those
with insufficient residence will not be
able to vote this Fall Neither will
the illiterate, the convicted criminals
nor the insane. Hence the number of
those actually entitled to vote is some
what smaller. 1t is estimated by Dave
LaZar, the research secretary of the
City party, that approximately 3250000
citizens will be eligible to vote this Fall.
Half of Voters Will Not Register.
The chances are that about one-half
Of those entitled to vote will register.
Although the citizen who fails to
register is the more numerous and more
important type of non-voter, there is
the other who registers, but does not
vote. 1t is believed that they might
swing a close election against Tammany
If they could be gotten out on Election
day.
There are other new voters who may
not be classed as non-voters since they
previously have not had the oppor-
tunity to vote. These are the citizens
who have qualified for the ballot since
1929, especially the young people who
have reached the age of 21 in the last
four years. No one knows how they
will vote this Fall Neither Tammany
nor fusion is neglecting them.
The second great task Of the fusion
leaders is to recruit voters from among
those who normally vote the Demo-
cratic ticket. 1t is the belief of Tam
many leaders that they will be able to
resist detection because of the weight
of tradition, their control over patron
age, the gratitude of recipients for ia
vors and the sense of loyalty which they
have fostered among the workers" in
the organization
1t cannot be accepted as proved that
the balancing of the ticket with rep
resentatiYes Of specific religious and
nationality groups attracts considerable
numbers OF votes from the other party
careful statistical study of the infiu-
ence OF Catholic and Jewish religious
aHlilatlons OF candidates for State off,
ceS on the vote in districts where those
Ienglous groups are in the majority
failed to indicate any favorable re-
sponse. AS a matter of fact. it has
even appeared that Irish Catholics
voted against Irish Catholic candidates
and Jews against Jewish candidates.
Ihe explanation of this conclusion is
f1rst. that both parties balance the ma
tionaItles on their tickets so neatly
that they discourage crossing over"
ana. second, that ordinary representa-
yves OF nationality and religious groups
II. oOaCe-"loe elections do not prove so
attractive to their compatriots and CO.
reng1onlsts as do the municipal candi-
oateS whose nationality and religious
athllationS are better known.
Women's Vote Uncertain.
An uncertain element is the women
vote. II the bulk of the non-regis ster-
ing ana non-voting women are potential
haHo tuo.ai Supporters, then the Democrats
nave already commanded their maxi-
,,,ua! n,'n1. loyalty from the women. The
Susstion now Is: Can the fusionists
induce women Democrats to she'd tbs;,
regularity in this election and come IN
| tne alo OF the Independent Democrats
! ana Republicans? Studies of the votiSSr,
DehaVlor OF women in previous eIectioI1s
lnroW no light on this question Ma,
Democratic women hold positions Il
prominence in reform oreanizations ana
poltlcal study clubs. It is the hone ~
iuslonlsts that they will join In the
11tve NJ 70 GUST Tammany from power
SEEN -o4ioHE 70 De
The possibility of attracting Dsr,o
Gratis to the fusion Standard is bo;att
ened by the circumstances of ~eroI.
nitAln the Oem~cratic organization IN
! queens, Richmond and Manhattan
| COUNTIES the local Democratic r,a Chimes
| an under Curry domination. are m
| IflenoIy with the national and Sat.
Democratlc organizations. Stren1Ions
enoiLs nave been made to patch m
1neSe olnerences in the last month
mere Is, however, little unity of action
OF opinion among the county macnines
Laose OF Manhattan. the Bronx and
ant n1ookIyn au Waging quiet yet persist
cut struggle Tor leadership in citv af-
fairs. Within each county there ore
local revolts. Queens County is in a
constant state OF uproar and there are
ABOUT nVe factions of the Democratic
party there, which may or may not hold
together this Fall. There are local re-
volts against the Democratic district
leader in nearly one-haIf of the AS
sembly districts of the city. If fusion
can accelerate this tendency toward
olsintegratton Of the municipal deuoc-
racy, its chances of victory are ve11
good.
Further accretions to the fusion tick,t
are expected to result from the candi-
oacles and the public advocacv of
fusion aims on the part of the inde-
pendent Democrats. and a number of
otner leaders, several of whom have re-
Gently been identified with the reeuIa :
Democratic organizations.
Inc extent OF the detection to be an
ticipated from the normal Democratic
vote IS not easy to estimate. In 1882
the oinerence between the Roosevelt
ana the O'Brlen vote was 40O835. II
nall that number support the mayor
atty candidate, Fiorello A. La Guarciia,
whose philosophy of government IS
closer to President Roosevelts than Is
Mayor C'Brien's, he may win. The
vote for Joseph v. Mckee in 1882
amounted to 264,836. Since most of
these voters expressed themselves as
opposed to Mayor O'Brien, they may be
expected to oppose him again in 1893.
Socialist Vote Significant.
In the last eight Assembly districts
the Socialist vote is highly significant.
VIII 1t be available to the fusionists? /?
In view Of the fact that Socialist can
didates have been designated for the
chief city and borough Offices, and in
the Light Of past voting behavior, it
would seem that no recruits for fusion
could be expected from that quarter.
But 1t Is the hope of the fusion leaders
that the Socialists will turn to fusion
in order that the latter may inroduce
proportional representation, without
which the Socialists vote is, at the pres
ent time, entirely ineffective Much of
the preliminary work in the present
campaign was performed by the Social
ist City Affairs Committee, and this
group Is not likely to nullify its infiu-
ence by dividing the opposition to Tam
many Hall.
Although Mr. La Guardia was de-
feated in the 1929 mayoralty campaign,
his platform has since become remark
ably more explicit and constructive.
Moreover, the major once did carry 81
Assembly districts In the entire city In
his successful race for the presidency
of the Board of Aldermen in 1919. It
is this record, plus that of Deutsch and
Ingersoll, which leads the fusion forced
to believe that they will win In 1888.
The projected curve of past voting be-
havior awards the decision to the
J Democrats. But urban political be-
havior cannot be so precisely predicted
The outcome depends upon the way in