Evening star., 1933-02-08

BY WILLIAM FIELDING OGBURN,
Research Director, Presidents Research
Committee on Recent Social Trends.
have been asked by the Associated
Press to select the 10 most important
problems before the American people.
From the hundreds set forth by the
report CT the Presidents Committee on
Social Trends, the result OF three years
of intensive study of our social life. and
from lifetime of study and obserVa-
ton, have picked these 10.
If I had been allowed to choose
dozen or a score, the list would have
included some which the reader may
note as conspicuous by their absence.
I have tried to be guided by a sense OF
what is practicable for the near future.
These will, hope, serve to direct the
attention of the manifold agencies
which determine our public policies to-
ward the most severe stresses OF the
future as well as toward the oppor-
tunities for directing cur steps forward.
1. How to End Depressions.
Our present economic distress, with
its millions of unemployed and its tens
of thousands of bankruptcies and Its
tens of millions of lowered incomes, Is
net a collapse of civilization. IL is
merely the downward trend OF the busl-
ness cycle.
The trend has been SO severe that
the farmer was justified in remarklng
that sit was too bad hard times mao
to come along with the business depres-
sion," and many of us are warranted In
thinking it the beginning OF the enc.
But good times will return. But what
a wreckage will be left In the wake OF
the depression!
These influences spread far and wide.
They lower the standard of living, de-
crease the number of marriages, IN
crease the suicide rate, cut down the
budgets for education, spread the terror
of unemployment into millions OF homes,
reduce incomes, ruin businesses ana
increase crimes.
Business depressions fall upon the
farmer with particular severity. He mas
enough food to eat usually, tnougn
farmers are being helped in various
States by our relief stations.
Farmers Hard Hit.
The farmer does not cut down his
production as does the factory owner
hence the prices of what he sells fall
more than the prices of what he buys
His income falls more than his costs. :,
The farm, however, breaks the shock
for the worker more than the city, pc
cause there is more food and shelter
and greater aid because OF family ties
Depressions have some good effects
| They force us to clear out the dead
weed and eliminate the accumulated
wastes of more prosperous times. There
| is better church attendance and greater
use of libraries. But the evils Tar, 1aI
outweigh the good.
Smoothing Business Cycles.
A major problem of our economic or
ganization is to lessen the intensity Of
these economic depressions, whicr
means more stability in business and 9
reduction of boom times as well as hare
times. To smooth out the business cycle
Is greatly to be desired.
| Apparently we don't know enough
about them to control them. There Is
however, for the near future, a modest
hope that the swing Of these business
fluctuations may be lesSened somewhat
though not eradicated.
We do not see clearly enough to fore
cast what the more distant future may
yield. Apparently major difficulty L
the unequal flows of credit and OF pro-
duction, and it appears that in mos
cycles an important factor is the fuctu
alton in our money and credit system
The barometer is the price level.
Sweden has been able to maintain
stable price level for a number o.
months, largely through the control O
interest rates.
Certainly closer control over oul
money and credit must be in any eco
nomic program of the future.
Balanced Output and Demand.
Another source of dif1fculty not un
related to the foregoing is the fact tina
production tends to increase faster thar
the capacity to purchase.
Equalizing the flows of consumption
y and production undoubtedly calls for ,