Evening star., 1933-12-31

here in an article by one OF the
NGtion'S business leaders, tUritten at
the request OF the Associated Press
BY HENRY l. HARTMAN,
President OF the Chamber of Commerce Of
! the United States.
(Copyright, 1898, by the Associated Press
New Year is the time for frank ap-
praisal of the year that is past and for
| the expression Of our hopes and fears
| for the year that is to come.
! II is fair to say that our appraisal
, Of the present business situation indi-
! Gates marked progress toward business
! recovery during 1888. and gives reason
to hope for still further progress in
the year that is before us.
We now have evidence that there
has been improvement in business. ac-
tivity. not only in the United States,
! but among al the great nations of the
world.
In aggregate volume, the commerce
of 60 nations dropped in the early
months of this year to approximately
68 per cent OF its level in 1929, and in
aggregate value to something like 80
Per cent of its value four years before.
That proved to be the low point
The volume OF world commerce has
ever since gradually increased. even
! against sea- eonal trends, to approx
mately rs per cent of its 1929 amount.
Upward Movement Persists.
Meanwhile. the general level of
world prices has shown a more pro-
! longed period Of stability than has pre-
vioUsly appeared in the history of the
long decline since the end of 1929, and
this period of stability has now ended.
not as always before in these years of
! depression with a fresh inclination
! downward. but with an inclination up
{ ward This upward movement still
persists.
Such a course in world economic
events augurS we'll for the opportunity
t. make further progress n 1884, out
IL is doubly significant because the
progress which has been recorded has
been against artificial obstacles which
the goyenmentS of the world kept pill
ing higher and higher
Tariffs imposed for purposes of ex-
ClusIOn. preferences. quotas. uncertain
ties caused by disturbed political con-
ditionS and controlled exchanges are
sCne of the obstacles.
That world commerce should suffer
added difficulties and show gains sug
gests there is in the Improvement that
eccncmic strength which always ap-
pears when the processes Of recovery
have replaced those Of depression.
Encouragement Abroad.
If We look beyond our own borders
We can find encouragement in the evil
dence Of improvement in countries
which are our important customers
For a succession of months. the ton
rage Of vessels arriving in the United
kingdom has risen. and for 10 consecu-
tive months unemployment in England
he been steadily declining.
New British capital issues have now
reached a point for this year that places
. them above either of the two preceding
years, and surely suggest returning con-
fdence.
Despite internal difficulties, French
imports and exports have advanced.
German steel works have been produc-
ing at a rate indicating substantial
degree Of recovery in that basic IN
dustry.
Some of the industries of Italy show
improvement. Shipping activity in ports
of Japan will probably make an all
time record during the present year.
In Canada industrial employment
has increased against the seasonal trend.
end the index OF physical volume of
business is at least 30 per cent above
the low point early in the year.
Foreign Trade Receivers.
Our own foreign trade is part of
the stC-y Of world trade. There is now
evidence Of substantial and sustained
recovery from the low level of 1882
Out of the perpleXity Of conflicting
factors affecting our foreign commercial
relations there stands forth the welcome
fact that our foreign trade is better
than it was.
At least 90 per cent of the import
ant items among our exports show in
creases. and the percentage of increase
in imports is even higher.
Furthermore, the prices at which our
goods go abroad as well as the prices
We are paying for imports have risen
in manner to suggest that We are on
commerce.
Our cotton exports in November went
abroad at an average price As per cent
above the average price for cotton ex
ports earlier in the year and 35 per
cent over the average export price for
November Of last year
/. Our exports of hams and shoulders
showed an increased price Of 40 per cent
Cur exports of wheat in November had
an average price 80 per cent higher
than in March. Copper is moving
forward at an increased price and in
increased volume
On the other hand, We are paying
100 per cent more for rubber and tin,
20 per cent more for hides and wool,
and SO per cent more for silk.
Bank Figures Improve.
l am dwelling upon world trade and
our part in it because it is in that di-
rection We most clearly find indications
of the true trends OF world economic
events.
For such an extensive country as ours,
Nith the diverse interests Of its regions
and communities. ii is difficult to find
exact standards of measurements that
are at once Nationwide and accurate.
We can, however. scan the volume
Of business of more than $50 Of our
important cities. thanks to data COL
aected by our reserve banks.
:. These figures indicate widespread i'm
'provementS. and when we compare fig
llres for December 1893, with those TOR
December 1882, we realize the great
progress that has been made.
= In more than IT'S of these cities, the
fgureS for December show larger
volume of business than in December
1882. and in almost all of the other
CITIES there are particular local reasons
Tor their failure to move forward.
: Many problems must be solved before
real lasting prosperity returns to this
country but much progress has been
made during 1898.
A psychology of hope has replaced
psychology of fear. and our people are
looking forward to the future with con-
fdence.
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