Evening star., 1933-04-02

\dE past Two weeks nave seen oe-
velopments of lasting interest in
the international field On the
i one hand it is clear that a
temporary var scare more acute
in its immediate character than since
1918 has passed without any actual cri-
sis. On the other hand it is not less
plain that the dramatic excursion OF
Ramsay Macdonald to Rome has no
lasting value in promoting an agree
ment between the four great powers OF
the Old World such as the British prime
minister manifestly hoped for. In a
sense, therefore, Europe is back where
it started at the moment when the
coming of Hitler set in motion the great
scare.
Historically, however, there is no rea-
son to doubt that the recent episode
must constitute clear warning. Before
the World War there were several Of
the same sort. Beginning with Tangier
in 1905, the Bosnian affair in 1908 and
the Agadir incident in 1911. each in its
turn for moment revealed the peril
which was always just around the cor
ner. The last of all the warnings was
supplied by the two Balkan Wars OF
1928. After that it is now clear that
the deluge was close at hand.
What is one to deduce from this latest
lIlSlS! Ill0L VI dli ll4C kiCoA
fact that if Germany persists in her
present determination to force a re-
vision of the territorial clauses of the
peace treaties no readjustment in Eu-
rope is possible No matter what hap-
pens Poland and the nations of the
little entente will not agree to restore
any portion of the territory which they
acquired after the World War. No gov
eminent could live in any one of these
four countries which consented to any
such sacrifice.
Purposes Irreconcilable.
If, however. it is once more beyond
debate that the nations which acquired
territory will not consent to peaceful
revision. 1t is not less evident that Ger
many will not give up her resolution to
regain the corridor, Austria to realize
union with the Reich, or Hungary to
accept the treaty of the Trianon as de-
finitive Thus for a future which can
not be calculated now there will be ma
tions with irreconcilable purposes facing
each other. These irreconcilable pur-
poses must at best constitute a latent
peril to peace.
In such situation the policy of three
countries must be decisive. And in re-
ality the chance of peace must depend
of Great Britain AS it stands today
there is no present hope of any far
going reconciliation between France and
italy. Between the two countries there
is no immediate territorial issue as
there is no question of treaty reStrlc-
tions. Italy is free to arm as she may
choose and can afford. If Italian am
bition looks to reordering of African
possessions the issue is not itself acute.
But as long as France stands by her
little entente allies, and particularly
continues to support Yugoslavia, recon-
citation with Italy is out of the reckon
ing because the little entente bars
Italy's way to Central Europe and to
that sphere of political influence which
would otherwise be open to her. No
one will imagine for a moment that
Mussolini or his Fascist party desire
war. On the contrary. for Italy new
conflict will remain Indefinitely a grave
hazard to be avoided if possible and as
long as possible.
1t is safe to set both France and
Italy down as certain to use every avail
able influence to prevent actual conflict.
On the other hand it is impossible to
see any prospect of Franco-ltallan CO.
operation which would in association
with Great Britain clear the way for
constructive action. Italy Is resolved not
to accept the existing state of Europe,
which amounts in practice to French
predominence due to French alliances.
Thus, if there is no immediate cause of
war, such as the Polish corridor in
Polo German relations, there is basic
divergence which bars the way to CO.
operation.
Face Future Divided.
Italy and France are therefore bound
so far as one can see at the present
hour-to face each other in new inter-
national conferences, as in the past, di-
vided beyond hope of adjustment. In
that situation the French allies are
bound to follow the lead of Paris, while
Budapest, Berlin and Vienna will turn
toward Rome A state of deadlock such
as all but wrecked the arms confer
ence for nearly "a year and half is
quite possible of perpetuation and the
chances of this deadlock changing into
an actual collision of purposes must be
both real and enduring.
In that situation what can the British
do? 1t is plain that the recent war
scare was most acute in Britain, because
the British were not only aware OF the
dangers, but also were determined to
ep.outside the circle of flames. Mac
Donalds Rome excursion was certainly
q VI bllC ONoAN. III
so far as Germany is concerned what is
going on in the Reich now-the Hitler
reign of terror-has abolished such
sympathy with Germany as had sur
vived the fall of the republic last Sum-
mer. But the British certainly did hope
to prevent the formation of any Rome
Berlin bloc.
Up to point it is still not impossible
that they may succeed. One thing
seems certain and that is that Italy
will not under any circumstances risk a
course which might make hard and
fast Anglo-French agreement possible.
And it is still possible that with all their
reluctance to undertake any continental
risk the British might be driven into
such stand as final attempt to pre-
vent conflict. Again, it is also not i'm
possible that German action may pres
emily awaken Italian anxiety.