Evening star., 1933-12-31

been unwilling 10 assume. ABOUT all
that can be done is to draw up a form
Of positives and negatives in the situa-
ton and determine which group appears
to be the dominant one.
Measured by the records of a year
ago. there is ample proof that conditions
during the II months have made a
striking improvement. This is con-
spicuous in banking, in industry, in
transportation, in agriculture, in mining
and in wholesale and retail trade.
corollary of it is the greatly reduced
number of commercial defaults and a
steady dVindling in corporation re-
ceiverships.
Pay rolls have steadily increased in
size since the early Summer. as wage
scales have been lifted and several mil
lions Of those unemployed last Winter
have gone to work for corporations or
are now under the wing of the Federal
Government. Dividend payments are
on the increase.
The higher prices for agricultural
products have assisted producers in
meeting overdue obligations and in pro-
viding them with larger buying power.
The social. as well as the economic,
status Of the country is healthier be-
cause Of the wider distribution Of the
Nations income.
Positive Factors Dominant.
On the reverse side of the picture
are such unfavorable tendencies as the
rapid increase in the Government debt.
the Unsuitable demand from many di-
rections for Federal aid, the rising trend
of taxes, the evidence that profits OF
business will be held down as part
of the new social philosophy and the
ever-present fear that, in order to pro-
vide employment and to stimulate in
dustry. continued Government loans
will be required and that these in the
end will seriously urbalance the bud
get. threaten the Nations credit and
start the country on an era Of currency
initiation.
From this summary it will be seen
that the positive elements in the situa-
ton outweigh the negatives, for they
are real and tangible, while some Of the
others are only assumed or conditional.
1t must be remembered, too that with
in the year there has developed sub
stantial evidence of recovery throughout
the world and that this is today playing
its natural part in overcoming the ef-
fects of the depression. It is also we'll
to take into account the extent to which
the debt structure has been readjusted
by liquidation. by voluntary scaling
down Of obligations and by foreclosures,
all of which partially correct-some es-
innate by as much as 25 per cent of
the total A y7 pTiy7nte debtN .,o oondition
Omists insists must be improved before
permanent recovery Is possible.
In some respects the social achieve
Roosevelt administration have been Of
greater Importance to the country than
its economic program. For the first
time in this generation at least. the
social attitude of the country has
place in the national balance sheet
comparable to that of any other asset.
The economist who disregards II In
framing his argument against the ad-
ministration's fiscal policies misses a
vital point.
Gold Price Marked Up.
As the year closes, it has not yet
been demonstrated to the satisfaction Of
the general public that the policy of
marking up the price of gold in order to
effect an advance in commodities has
been or can be successful. Rather the
proof from statistics is that 1t has so
far been a failure Whether or not
this operation and the lack of response
to it should be blamed for the reaction
in business that set in in the Summer is
debatable It may be helped by the
second of the moves of the administra-
tion, that of purchasing silver and
thereby stimulating many markets
which have so far been dormant.
There is no doubt that the relief
felt after the bank moratorium had
been lifted resulted in great wave
OF buying of merchandise that was
in demand by consumers after
two years of restricted use of essentials.
Then came the departure of the
country from the gold standard and the
of this with respect to in
f!ation. The sequel was newer and
higher wave of buying for speculative
account. supplementing the earlier legit-
chases of the public. which ordinarily
would have covered the greater part OF
a year, were crowded into a few months.
buying, so that in the Autumn there
was less inquiry for goods than there
would have been under normal condl-
tions. This held true until the latter
part of the year, when the effect of the
ment channels and a steady flow OF
money out of banks that had been
closed or restricted again began to show
in retail trade.
1t is fair to assume that these ele-
ments will 60 on leavening the business
world and that the early months of
1884 will witness a spread of buying
power to many new directions The
outlook for business. the situation in
CONTINUED on Second Pase)