Evening star., 1933-12-31
ORIENT DOMINANT
IN WORLD TRADE
New Economic Frontier
Faced With InduStrializa-
ton of Far East.


Cambridge Associates. Boston.
Surely they are better" said Roger
BabSon recently, speaking of business
conditions "and surely you will see
they are better if you will read the
small-type statistics buried on the in
side pages of the newspapers, instead
of merely the bold headlines on the
front pages
Last year the business indicator was
whirling around like a Sun-Struck hen.
I'VE have stopped going down" was the
byword. things must turn. Where are
we going, that's the question:" To-day
il is not a question, Have things stop
ped going doWn?' Authorities disagree
on the number of men back at work.
But they all agree, many more are
working today who did not work last
wear" There is an increase in con-
sumer demand. Economic and business
groups agree on 1t, even though they
disagree on just how much of an in
crease exists and how 10 re-enforce it.
II is no longer a question, Have We
reached the bottom?' but How fast
ere We ascending? Will the gold policy
make us ascend much slower or even
strand US a quarter of the way up for
a while!" or Will the gold policy
hasten purchasing power and facilitate
employment OppOrtunity?' These prob
lens are important. Every nation in its
particular way has TO contend with
them. And foreign trade is looming
as even more important
Nearly year ago. so fatal and deS-
perate was the financial chaos i'll the
Central European states. that reyolu-
the fear OF panic alter
panic. The Business Week now re-
ports a revival i'll the industrial activ-
ity of Germany. especially in the steel.
coal and automobile industry. and
most marked gain in agriculture. THIS
is no Endorsement of HitleriSm Rather
It shows that in spite OF any form OF
policy or government. the laws regu-
lating production and consumption
have swung around toward the upper
curve of the economic cycle in the
inevitably interrelated world of indus |
triaEZed nations.
Recovery Is Under Way.
Let us examine a moment how ma
tions have arisen out of past depres- |
sions. They did not get out Of them
through some chance thing coming
along and getting them out OF it. /
They got out" for three reasons. First: .
Accumulative surpluseS We're used up, F..
necesSitating more production and con- (
sequent employment. Second: The great
middle classes. on whom SO much de- /
pends, recovered from tlmldlty and be-
gan numerous Refreshments, thus eS-
tabliShing a diversity OF trade. Thirdly, /
and perhaps most important of all: !
There followed a more thorough eX-
ploitation of the resources of the coun- /
try involved: this meant the creation 1
of new industries and a consequent de- .
N1r..~K, hin II
wages. This. briefly. is how the United
States or any other country has tri- .
umphed from te slough of any pre-
Vious depressioIS But we have omitted
one factor that properly belongs in the /
third category, j. e., the search after
foreign markets. (
And in this respect. the one-time .
totally unindustrialized Orient Will play /
a large part in the future. Here the I
term foreign markets" is somewhat .
of misnomer; for rather was it
search after new sources Of raw ma
terials that would. when found be sent .
TO the home market for consumption.
This particular phase OF commercial .
activity is sometimes called imperial
ism.
Its mention is pertinent to this article
only in so far as it cOnfronts US with
an important factor that arose from it,
l. E., determination in the East to
industrialize and thus become our
equals And this very determination
will. and actually is. helping to pull the
Western World out OF its depression.
Much Surplus Exhausted.
Already much surplus is exhausted
and the factories must create more
goods There are distinct signs of a
less fearful middle class and rising
faith. But now we confront an enigma
In the OCcident when getting out of
former depressions We increased our
irduStrialiZation: We more thoroughly
exploited our natural resources and so
provided more employment and con-
sequent consumption. Today we really
cannot repeat this process as we have
in the past. At least not to any con-
siderable degree. We have quite suff-
cient machinery as it is. Is not the
problem. How are We to find enough
consumers for our commodities? If we
have not enough purchasers how are we
TO pay labor enough? Having got so
fer out of the depression are We to fall
back again into vicious circle of sur
plus and consumer Scarcity?"
Having once started toward adjust
ment. the answer is already apparent.
The East is. in many respects in point
Of development, comparable to our own
status at about the middle of the last
century. There was no lack Of con-
sUmer demand either for goods here
or abroad at that time. Semi-ASiatic
Russia is eager now to buy vast quanti-
ties Of our commodities. And it is sig
niflcant that in the East the most rapid
strides toward recovery have already
taken place.
In Japan there is a veritable boom
The Union of South Africa and Aus
tralia arc passed the cOnvalescent stage
and rapidly going forward. And in
India. the Malay States and the Dutch
East Indies the depression is well-nigh
over. Manchuria is undergoing de-
Velopment. and in other Eastern terri
tories there is a constant pressure to
raise the standard of living This is
also particularly true Of South America
These peoples will, in increasing mum
bers, be demanding the materials for
the development of their own heavy
and light industry that their present
backwardneSS is yet mechanically in
capable of satisfying 1t is for us to
supply them with these commodities.
for today the Orient is the frontier of
the industrial world. Herein is seen
the really international character of
business. Its country is the entire
globe. And with half the world still
to be supplied it should have much .
to keep it busy, now that locally speak
ing, it is getting its legs back.
SHORT-TERM SECURITIES.