Evening star., 1932-10-29
SHIFT TO HOOVER
FORECAST IN IOWA
Observers Believe Events of
Next Few Days Will Gov
ern Results.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

DES MONIES, Iowa, October 29.-
Iowa ordinarily is so Republican that
the inclination of both Republicans and
Democrats Of prominence hereabouts to
place 1t in the doubtful column would
seem on the surface to be ominous for
Hoover.
Farm discomfort, the burden of un-
paid mortgages and the general decline
OF morale due to price drops have con-
tributed an anti-administration senti-
ment SO widespread that the early polls
reflected an easy Roosevelt victory in
the State. Since President Hoover came
here and began fighting back. and since
Al Smith injected a charge of bigotry
against dry Republicans, of whom there
are an abundance in this State, the
swing has been decidedly back to the
administration.
One political reporter who has been
making a careful canvass of the State
by personal visit records his belief that
the State now is safe for Hoover. Ger
talnly late polls show an improvement
In the Hoover position.
May Be on Fence Still.
Nobody knows, of course, whether
this drift Is cumulative and growing
progressively toward election day or
whether is is the revived enthusiasm Of
Republicans who were on the fence and
made up their minds in the last 10 days
or SO to stick to the ticket. Indeed, 1t
is contended by some who know this
State very well that the bulk Of the
voters are not fixed yet in any definite
position and that people really will
nlra 1ofr tyad
If this is so, then President Hoover
will carry the State This is because
his last few speeches have made deep
impression and there is more fighting
spirit in the Republican organization
than there has been since the campaign
started Heretofore, the Republican
workers were diSpirited. They saw an
insuperable obstacle in the trend toward
Roosevelt reflected in straw votes. Now,
as the gap seems to be closing up, tney
are becoming aggressive.
Smith Speech Cited.
Unquestionably the speech made by
AL Smith has been turning point. II
the State goes to Hoover by narrow
margin. it will be because Smiths
speech at Newark cost tens of thousands
of votes. A Smith-Roosevelt alliance
may have been desirable for Massachu-
sets and Rhode Island. but it rubbed
the wrong way some Of the many voters
here who four years ago rejected Smith.
There is no logic or justification for
these emotional shifts. but they are ap-
parent and it is impossible to ignore
them in any fair report of what the
trend Of political sentiment happens to
be at the moment of observation.
Iowa looks somewhat like Maine. The
latter State gave Democratic Cover
nor a plurality of less than 5000 in
September, but now is counted for
Hoover
The fact that Maine was so close
showed a reversal of the usual tide, but
if Names electoral votes go to Hoover,
the mathematics of the downward trend
are of little Importance. The country
knows now there is distinct anti-ad-
ministration prejudice rather than a
Roosevelt enthusiasm governing the
voters, but with such large Republican
lead in these normally Republican
States we may expect here reduction
almost to the vanishing point. yet an
electoral vote could be cast for Hoo
yer. This State is truly doubtful-any-
bodys guess is as good as any other,
whether or not founded on expert judg-
ment. But it does look as If it will be
decided by less than $4,000 votes, and it
is more likely to go for Hoover than for
Roosevelt. due to the developments of
the last few days.
(Copyright 1927