Western news and the Libby times. [volume] (Libby, Mont.) 1920-1933, 1932-10-13
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Washington, D. c.. October 1.-THE
speeding up of the presidential cam
paign by the republican organization
with the president himself taking the
stump, is always standard political
practice for the party IN power. The
| last four or five weeks before cleo
ton are what really county.
Reports from various newspapers,
magazines and organizations which
have been polling various local and
national groups on their presidential
preferences indicate so far slight adj
vantage for Governor Roosevelt. None
of the polls SO far has been extensive
enough to be conclusive. but they all
show considerable swing of voters
who voted for Hoover in 1928 to Roose-
welt in 1892
Mr.. Hoover's majority over Smith
was 6,375,000 in 1928 If everybody
/ voted this year who voted in 1928 and
there were no new voters, a change of
100000 votes from the republicans 10
the democratic column could result in
Mr.. Roosevelts election In other words
a change of only about per cent of
the voters would seem to be enough
to put the democratic candidate in the
White House. The republican managers
recognize the fact that there will be
considerable swing away from Mr..
Hoover this year, but they believe that
an aggressive, intensive campaign can
bring about the presidents reelection
The democratic management on the
other hand, seems confident that 20
per cent or more of the voters Of the
nation will register their dissatisfaction
of present conditions by voting for a
change.
1t is entirely possible to have a
change of 20 per cent, or even more,
IN the national popular vote, from the
republican side to the democratic side,
and still Mr.. Hoover could be re-
elected. It all depends upon the partie-
ular states in which the heaviest swing
TO Roosevelt takes place
Seven Minority Presidents
Since 1876 we have had fourteen
presidential elections. but only seven
of the presidents elected have had a
majority of the popular vote. Mr.. Will
son in 1912 had only AZ DER cent OF the
total vote cast. and in 1916 he was still
minority president. Hayes, Garfield,
Cleveland. both times and Harrison,
were each elected bv minority of the
voters of the nation This is possible
because the actual ballots cast are
counted by states and not nationally. |
The state Of New York for example, /
has between four and five million vot-
ers If thev voted unanimously for /
Governor Roosevelt It would give him
only AZ out Of 266 electoral votes.
There has been no increase in the /
total number ct presidential electors |
since 1928, but there has been a reap
portionment Of the number allotted to T
each state, resulting from chances in /
population. and the increases in the I
number of electors have been greater /
In the states which are usually counted T
as safely republican than they have
been in the doubtful or surely demo-
cratic states California. for example.
will choose q presidential electors in
November as against 13 in 1925 and,
therefore. will cast 8 more votes in
the electoral college than four years
ago.
Works Both Ways
1t all sums I'D to this, that if Mr..
Hoover can carry % states which have
always, or nearly always, gone repub-
lican in presidential campaigns, he can
be elected. even if Mr. Roosevelt car
ries the Solid South" New York, New
JERSEY, Illinois, Missouri Arizona,
Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, Okla
homa and Virginia
Mr.. Hoover might have majority
of only 100 in each of twenty eight
states, while Mr.. Roosevelt might have
majority Of million in each of the
other twenty states, and still Mr..
Hoover would be reelected.
Of course, this works the other way
around also. If Governor Roosevelt can
carry twenty-one critical states by
small majority Mr. Hoover can have
a majority OF millions in the other
twenty-seven and still be defeated
The expectation is that the largest
swing to Roosevelt will be in the states
having large industrial populations,
where the suffering from the present
depression has been most severe. The
republican party management is not
taking the complaints Of the farmers
in the corn belt and the wheat country
as seriously as might be expected The
normal and overwhelming sentiment
in these states has always been repub-
lican, and great deal Of the republic
can confidence is based upon the reali-
cation that in politics the American
people, particularly those Of the Mid
die West, have always been conserva-
tive. They do lot Of talking and COM
planning between elections. but at cleo