Evening star., 1932-08-30
VICTORY MAY HINGE
ION EMPIRE STATE
Hoover Given Advantage in
New York and Through 1t
Success in Nation.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

The election will t73e place 10 weeks
from Tuesday. Dying the remainder
of the campaign, Sv1e trends will de-
velop, of course and there will be events,
planned or accidental, affecting the
situation in both directions. As of to-
day. the picture in the net does not
differ materially from a normal one.
The largest one factor is New York
State.
If the Democrats can carry New York
they have a good chance to win the
presidency. If they lose New York they
have almost no chance. This condition
is strictly normal Since 1875, when
ever the Democrats have carried New
York they have carried the country;
and only once have they carried the
country without carrying New York. 1t
Is also strictly normal that the Demo-
Gratis at ell times have little chance to
carry New York in a presidential elec-
tion. They have done so only once
since 1892, and that was in the utterly
abnormal circumstances of 1912 when
the Republicans were split by the de-
fection of Theodore Roosevelt and the
arising of the Progressive party.
Task Before Roosevelt.
The real question Of the present cam
paign IS whether Gov. Roosevelt can
overcome the normal strong tendency
of New York State to go Republican in
Presidential elections. There are no
new conditions justifying the Inference
that he can. On the contrary, such
extraordinary conditions as there are
point in the net rather to the disad-
vantage of Gov. Roosevelt. 1t is
material factor in the campaign that
the friends of ex-Gov Alfred E. Smith
feel the forces which dominated the
Democratic convention and nominated
Gov. Roosevelt, treated Smith in a
manner justifying strong resentment on
the part Of Smith and his friends. This
condition alone will weigh heavily
against Democratic victory in New
York State.
Politicians in both parties estimate
Gov. Smiths following throughout the
Nation at some 100000 voters. What
is meant by this is that there are
100000 voters who can be attracted
to the polls to vote for Smith additional
to such as would vote for any other
Democratic presidential candidate. 1t
is not possible to estimate how many of
these are in New York State. Neither
is it possible to estimate how many
feel so strongly about the treatment of
Gov. Smith at Chicago that they will
not go to the polls.
Almost any politician or observer
would say. however, that in New York
State the difference In the Democratic
vote between hearty support by Gov.
Smith for the ticket and indifference to
1t must amount to some hundreds of
thousands of votes. This alone. con-
sidering that New York is normally Re
publican anyhow, becomes serious ad
verse factor in the Democrats chance
of carrying New York in November. So
far as the Democrats are favored by
the existence Of depression, New York
Is one of the earliest States to feel the
effects of the recovery now under
way.
Expects G. o. p. to Win.
The sum of all is 1t would be diff
cult to find tenable ground to support
the assumption that New York State
in November will do other than the
usual thing in presidential elections,
which is to go Republican.
There are Democrats who claim that
Gov. Roosevelt can lose New York, but
still win the presidency. 1t is fact
that on one occasion, 1916. the Demo-
cratic candidate, woodrow Wilson, won
the presidency without carrying New
York. To do that, however, in 1916
or now, must be an extremely narrow
squeak. Wilson did it only by an ex-
traordinary situation in California
which enabled him to get the then 13
electoral votes of that State. Wilson
needed 266 electoral votes to win, and
his margin was only IL, or 277 in all
1t is true that various combinations
can be figured out in which the Demo-
Gratis can win the presidency without
carrying New York. Such combinations
must assume that the Democrats are
SenSationally strong in every part of
the country other than New York. It
Is true as of today the Democratic
ticket Is much stronger than usual in
the West. Taking the country as a
whole, however, conditions are not so
greatly different from normal as is COM
monty imagined. OF six border States
commonly claimed for Roosevelt, two
Maryland and West Virginia-are, as
of today, more nearly Republican than
Democratic. In the country as whole,
as OF today, the situation is of course
in doubt. Practically all presidential
elections are doubtful as of the tenth
week preceding them There Is under
way one trend that favors the Repub-
ncans. That is the beginning of busi-
ness recovery. Much, very much, de-
pends on whether that continues.
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