Evening star., 1932-03-06
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

To say II. Inc democratic STU
alton battles analysis. No politi-
Il clan in either party, and no OBJ
server among the many with wh~m
the writer has talked, pretends to be
able to trace the probable outcome, or
even to estimate the weight of all the
factors and psychological forces in
volved Practically every judgment ex-
pressed Is tentative, half-hearted.
The very size Of the field makes for
complexity. We may take, as an au-
thoritatively complete list Of all the
possibilities, the statement made re-
Gently by the working head Of the
Democratic National Committee. whose
enumeration Of men Il can gladly sup
port" made In spirit of demonstrat-
ing his impartiality, included
Speaker John N. Garner of Texas,
ex-Gov. Harry F. Byrd of Virginia,
Senator Cordell Hull of Tennessee,
Senator Pat Harrison Of Mississippi,
Senator J. Hamilton Lewis and Melvin
A. Traylor Of Illinois, Gov. George
White. Senator Robert j. Bulkley, New
ton D. Baker and ex-Gov. James M.
Cox Of Ohio -four from Ohio, mother Of
presidential aspirantsD, Gov. Franklin
Roosevelt, ex-Gov. Alfred E. Smith and
Owen D. Young Of New York, Gov. Al
bert c. Ritchie Of Maryland, ex-senator
James A. Reed Of Missouri.
There are Is, named by the acting
chairman OF the party, in q context in
which he was determined to prove his
neutrality, and in which, therefore, he
may be presumed to have included care
fully every possibility that came to his
mind
Even so, there Is a striking omission
from Mr.. ShouSe's list. If Mr.. Shouse
was intent, as the context shows he was,
hAjnO 0roccfrfalxy,B ! l.
strange he should have forgotten "Al-
falfa Bill" Or did Mr.. Shouse forget
him? Did he deliberately omit the
Oklahoma Governor? 1t was not
tactful omission, for Gov. Murray is a
suspicious person, markedly inclined to-
ward remembering sligks, and aveng-
ing them. Moreover, klrray in the
best of moods has role ~ the present
situation that aims away pom harmony
and toward explosive actions. Murray
may not be at this time a major con-
tender In the race-few competent
judges think, at this time, that Murray
has much chance Of getting the nomi-
nation, but everybody comedies he is
pullolng up senSationally large per-
sonal following, and that he will make
much commotion in the convention.
Murray. at his weakest, Is pretty GER
tam to have more delegates than three
or Iour whom Mr.. Shouse included in
MS LIST. Murray, two weeks from Tues
DAY, In the North Dakota primary. NAV
readily win the delegates of that State
from Gov. Roosevelt.
Six Real Possibilities
In this Democratic field of Is almost
anything can happen. At least six Of
them are real possibilities. We NAV
suggest, very tentatively, two Of the
take A'@'
Roosevelt may come to the conyen-
tlon so much the leading contender as
70 oe able to dominate the situation
ana nominate himself. That is the
nope OF his managers. They are
working for the largest possible num-
Der of delegates specifically bound to
support Roosevelt. To make this kind
OF campaign successful, Roosevelt needs
to have available for the first ballot
close to 500 delegates out of the lisa.
With 500, Roosevelt would have so
great moral advantage as to be able
PROBABLY to go on to the necessary two
thirds, or ITO. Roosevelt, following the
line to which he is now committed,
must have the largest number Of dele
gates, among all the candidates, on the
f1rst ballot, and-this is imperative
~-S AAAANS AANAC CooC A14S 4cdu OH every
succeeding ballot. If on any ballot the
aggregate delegates of the other candi-
dates hold firm and prevent Roosevelt
from growing, that will be holding
Roosevelt" If it happens, every sea-
soned politician will recognize that
Roosevelt has failed.
That is the picture of the first phase
of the convention. Beyond that no
prophet can now go. If Roosevelt does
not win, then there win be such
complex realigning of delegates that no
person can possibly foresee the succeed
ing developments. There will be
whirling OF forces, confused cross
swarming Of delegates out of which
any one Of at least six candidates may
emerge with the prize.
In such a situation curious forces
will be at work. forces of a kind that
the public rarely recognizes. For ex-
ample: Speaker Garner who Is decid-
edly one Of the possible winners) Is
supported by William R. Hearst That
makes people who dislike Hearst lean
away from Garner. Garner also is in
dorsed by William G. McAdoo That
makes people who dislike McAdoo lean
away from Garner. Now, one Of the
strongest, possibly the strongest force
In the convention. will be ex-Gov
exceedingly,
both Hearst and McAdoo.
This is mentioned here, not for any
decisive Importance it necessarily has, |
but merely as one Illustration of liter
ally hundreds of similar factors which. |
by the public, will have
weight in this convention.
Complex Proceeding.
This type of thing. not obvious to |
the public, is understood perfectly by
politicians who operate on the pSychol- !
ogy of conventions. Nominating a |
man for the presidency and electing |
him is a complex thing, crowded with |
subtleties and 1ntricacies. 1t includes
taking advantage of mems hates as
well as of their loyalties and affections.
The men who fully understand the art
are hardly a handful in the whole
country. They range from the hard
boiled Harry Daugherty, who nominated
to the shy and scholarly Col.
House, who largely nominated Woodrow
Wilson in 1912. For exercise of the
arts that such men understand. the
coming Democratic combination is 60
ing to be peculiarly fruitful Of oppor-
tunity.
Consider one eccentric and explosive