Evening star., 1932-01-10
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

local elections.
1t will be a very political year. 1t
conses with all its time consuming
nWkSardneSs of political mechanisms
as we'll as legislative ones in precisely
xne kind Of period that gives rise to
YmpatiencH with parliamentary and
Democratic forms Of government. DR..
Nicholas Murray Butler, president OF
Columbia University. has been saying
for some four years past that the
Democratic and legislative form OF
government. Of which we are the out
standing example, is on trial; that II
Is rnenaced by the apparent attractive
reSS and the certainly superior speed
IN action of the two kinds Of innova-
ten that have appeared since the war
one in Italy, the other in Russia.
DR.. Butler says that, as respects gov
eminent. this competition between our
form and the new experiments is the
most important of the many and fun
damental clashes between old and new
that are going on in the world today.
The assertion is clearly tenable. The
new experiments in government seem to
be gaining ground Within the present
year Germany may join Italy in the
dictatorial Fascist type Of government.
Clearly the coming political year in the
United States is an occasion for man.
Rgin; things with calmneSS on the part
of leaders, sure -footedness on the part
Of people.
Precedent of 1892.
To find a precedent for the political
year Just beginning we must go a long
way back. The last presidential cam
paign that took place in the midst of
business depression was in 1892, when
the Republicans, being in power under
JarricOT uerp OlIsfnd by the Demo
'cratS, under observation-disclosures endur-
ing profit, for the Democrats lasted but
enc presidential term.
The depression of 1892 was not as
much like our present one as the de-
preston that lasted, with brief inter
ruption. from about 1873 to 1879 or
early 1880. 1t is during this older de-
preston Of the 70S, therefore, that we
may find a better precedent for the
presidential election now to take place.
In the election that took place in 1876,
midway Of that depression the Repub-
uca Is were in power under Grant,
and they stayed in. (Though orthodox
Democrats believe that that election
was really won by Democrat Samuel j.
T1lden and that Republican Rutherford
B. Hayes got the Office only through
q superior eXpertneSs Of the Republic
ans in the matter of counting votes in
the Southern States.)
In the election that took place Just
at the close of that depression of the
1870s, again the Republicans were in
power and again they stayed in, Re-
publican Hayes in the White House
being succeeded by Republican James
A. Garfield
If we regard Gas many do) the pres
ent depression as being close TO its
end; II the election next November is
TO take place not in the acute midst
of a still deep depression, but merely
In the shadow of retreating one, we
shall find, in that event, our precedent
IN 1896. In that year-in the begin
ming and middle of it, that iS-the de-
preston was still deep and William
Jennings Bryan won the Democratic
nomination on sensationally eloquent
and persuasive assertion that he could
end the depression by coming silver
without limit, in the ratio of l6 to l.
compared with gold 1t was in June,
1896, that he got his nomination and
he had an excellent chance to win
Had the depression continued in full
force he would have won.
Depression Lifted.
But less than two months after
Bryan got the nomination the depres-
sion began to lift. 1t began to lift, as
this present depression some time will
lift, through forces that are compare
lively little under the control OF
Bryans or any other type of politician.
Had Bryan had any power over the
tides OF that depression he would
pretty surely have decreed that its
ebbing be deferred three months, until
election in November. Actually, the
ebb began in August. The first sign
OF the end-like, quite probably, the
first sign of the ebb of this present de-
preston when it comes-WaS a rise in
the price of wheat.
In part, we can say that Bryan was
defeated by an August rise in the price
OF wheat, for the improved cheerful
ness Of farmers changed many a vote
in the territory that was most IA
vorable to Bryan. In greater part, in
deed in full, we can say that Bryan
and his silver cure for adversely were
defeated by obscure but invincible eco
nomic forces which gave their first
visible sign in the form of a few cents
rise in the price Of wheat.
The result of this search Of prece-
dents for the coming campaign shows
that in presidential years which were
also depression years it has happened;
bIlaG IIlC puDliCdllS were III power III
three such years and stayed in power
in two of them QS76 and 1880; that
once the Republicans were in power
and went out 1892 and that once
t896) the Democrats were in power
and went out. The net sum of which
means, as respects light on the coming
year, just about zero.
These precedents are interesting
they throw much light on the opera
tions Of public psychology in depres-
sion, they have value for campaign
managers and candidates who know
how to find the value-but they give
us no sound basis for guessing the out
come Of the coming election.
If we ore to deal with this aspect
of the situation at all we might say
that If there is by November a meas
urable, concrete degree Of approach
toward business betterment, in that
case, the Republicans under Mr.
Hoover should win the election. Al
depression should be markedly worse
giving the feeling of crisis, the Repub-
licans might be kept in power on the
theory Of not changing horses at
dangerous spot on the road. Under
most other conditions, chances Woulc
favor the DemocratS-alwayS bearing
in mind it is possible for the Demo
Gratis 10 throw away thelr opportunity
through making some sort Of serious
mistake.
However, 1t is better to ignore all
this uncertain business of the relation
between business conditions and the
presidential election. We had best ad-
NIT the coming year is going TO be
very complex and look upon some out
standing characteristics Of it which are
not In the field Of doubt.
Hoover to Be RenOminated.
We can begin with one certain facto
In the situation. To say that Presiden
Hoover will be renominated is trite Il
those who possess experienced under
standing of politics 1t is surprising
though. how many persons distant from
the centers of political information arr