The Bismarck tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, N.D.) 1916-current, 1932-08-31
Why Predictions Fail

best are mere guesseS and futile spec
ulation. There are a number of crystal
gazers abroad in the land who see
victory for Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Others predict as positively that
President Hoover will be given sec
ond term in the white house.
OF course it is hard to tell what
great mass Of voters are going to do
in November. This is only August
and SO much can happen in two
months. In politics, two months is
long time. Idols can be shattered
and the defeatists wall can change
to songs of victory.
Nevertheless, at present writing,
surface conditions would seem to IA
vor the Democrats nationally. Voters
are not as politically hide-bound as
they were formerly. Many states
cleave to Republican regimes in SO far
as their state and municipal govern
ment are involved and turn over
completely in voting for presidential
electors and members of congress.
Within the last two and four years
several million new voters have come
into the picture. No one knows how
the new crop will vote.
Rising agricultural prices and cas-
ing of credit conditions may over
night discount the best laid plans of
the politicians and campaign ora
5. A revival Of hope and conf
nee would have tendency to keep
aany voters regular who are now
Eavering between old and new po-
/litical alliances.
Political prophecy is dangerous
thing. Those in politics must, by
force of circumstances, issue state
ments now and then to encourage the
workers. AS one old ward boss used
to say, claim everything until the
ballot boxes are closed and If you
lose, holler fraud
No one can blame the Democrats
for capitalizing the present economic
situation. Not all the present slump
is chargeable to any man or party,
but there is poetic justice at least in
the predicament in which Republic
cans find themselves. At every up
turn of the market or any small in
crease in the prices of farm products,
the Republican press and leaders of
that faction claim credit for the up
ward trends while refusing to accept
responsibility for the bearish tenden-
cies. If one is to be claimed, the
logic of the situation forces the &C
ceptance of responsibility for the
other. 1t is hard to claim credit
for prosperity and dodge drought and
depression.
Voters, however, are seeing through
the whole ruse. Republican orators
have been firing what the New York
Times calls bird shot" too long. The
old argument of full dinner pail
and rising stock market will not
L. as effective this year as in past
campaigns. Everyone knows that
conditions fundamentally cannot
change in two or three months to
restore the hectic days of easy come,
easy go.
A drawing of political lines is very
perceptible. The tom-toms are call
ing the faithful back to the old tepees.
Federal office holders are getting into
action to whip their precincts into
line. The "ins' have the leverage of
patronage and it often outvotes ideal
ism and principles. There Is shift
ing about, many huddles and ears
low to the ground waiting for signals.
But, on the other hand, there is a
lack of enthusiasm for Hoover every
where. He is inept at the game OF
ROAAOiSC. 44C Od4I44CV b1OC III 1b 4LS
eddies and currents. No one yet has
charted the political game: no one
has reduced its operations to mathe-
NAUTICAL formulae. That is what !
strmps President Hoover Roosevelt |
Is much better stage manager. He
has more magnetism. The New York
governor gets closer to the masses
md despite his wealth and social po-
Iition, he can walk with kings and
not lose the common touch. He is
more Of the people than Hoover. AS
he campaign progresses this factor
llone may turn the tide for him.
soosevelt's name may draw many to
lin who like more fireworks in their
poltics and . little Of the strenu-