Evening star., 1932-10-31
The Political Mill
BY G.. Could Lincoln.

BOSTON, Mass, october 3l-HOW
far do the straw" votes, the polls
taken by the Literary Digest. the
Hearst newspapers, and other daily pa
pers in many States accurately fore
cast the presidential election this year?
In Massachusetts the Digest poll is at
tackled by the Democrats, who say that
it is not really reflective Of the senti-
ment since it gives President Hoover a
big lead. In Pennsylvania. California
and other normally Republican States,
the G. o. P. leaders pooh-pooh the
poll, because it shows Gov. Roosevelt
running ahead of the President. Here
in Massachusetts the Digest poll OF
four years ago went sadly awry. for ii
gave the State to Hoover and Al Smith
carried the State by 1900 votes. If
that could have happened in 1923,
when times were good, the failure OF
the poll to reflect sentiment correctly
in Massachusetts may be repeated this
year. when there has been a demand
in many quarters for "a change" III
administration.
The preponderanCe Of Roosevelt
sentiment shown in the Digest poll in
PENNSYLVANIA still has not convinced the
Democratic leaders there, and certainly
net the Republican, that Roosevelt can
carry the Keystone State How 1t comes
about that Roosevelt has such big lead
in the State Is a conundrum. II RooSe-
welt should win in Pennsylvania, GER
tainlv the poll will have been vindicat-
ed, Just as it was indicated four years
ago when it showed several of the old
rock-ribbed Democratic States Of the
South voting for Hoover. A single in
stance in Philadelphia. however, may
give one reason for possible failure OF
the poll to reflect Republican sentiment
in the full Several members OF fra
ternal organization at a recent meeting
were discussing the matter Of the Digest
poll 1t appeared that IL in the group
had received ballots for the poll. OF
these two sent replies. The nine others
threw the ballots in the waste basket.
The two who replied gave their prefer
ence to Roosevelt. The nine others were
all for Hoover
why" said one Of these men. dis
cussing the incident, should I vote in
this poll. 1t means nothing to me"
However, several millions Of citizens
have voted in the poll, apparently TAX
ing great interest in it.
Many politicians and political OBJ
servers insist that sentiment in a ma
tional campaign crystallizes in Septem-
Der and does not change. If that is
the case, the Republican chances this
year seem pretty slim But even the
polls.ShOW now a swing to Hoover and
away from Roosevelt The main rea-
son for this is the real fight that Presi-
dent Hoover himself is putting up.
Furthermore the present advocacy OF
Roosevelt's election by Alfred E, Smith
seems to be cutting both ways. Then,
too. there has been a great drive by
business and employers of labor to put
across the Republican national ticket.
The question of how far these factors
in the campaign will be effective on
election day is what still keeps lot OF
the politicians jumpy. 1t seems TO be
generally argued that the Digest poll
does not reach as many women as II
does men-in fact. far less women, be
cause less women are listed in the tele-
Dhone books and less women are regis
tered owners Of automobiles. What Ell
feet will the woman vote have? II has
been asserted often that women vote as
the men Co However, there seems some
justification for the assertion that the
women have been partial TO PRESIDENT
Hoover since he has been candidate
for Office.
In this last week Of the campaign
there crops up. too. the talk OF the
silent vote It was this silent vote
it IS said. that swept the country Tor
Hoover in 1928 when Smith was draw
ing undreamed- of crowds as he rushed
through the country. Such great
crowds did Mr. Smith have that claim
were set up he would carry PennsyA-
vania. for example. and New Jersey
Yet in those States on election cay
Hoover had, respectively, leacs OF NIL
lion and three hundred thousand votes.
1t seems 10 be quite true that Iol q
Americans do not go about saying no"
they are TO vote in a presidential e4ec-
tion. 1t is conceivable that the silent
vote" could swing this election to the
Republican side.
X ***
Probably never before have the
Democrats been SO confident OF victory
as they are today. They are talking
in New York of carrying the Empire
state by a million votes for Roosevelt
actually a million votes They say that
Tammany will roll up an 800 600 lead
for Roosevelt in New York City ano
that Roosevelt will come down TO the
CITY with another 100000 lead from up
State. Yet the Literary Digest poll
shows Hoover running well. although
behind Roosevelt The difference be-
tween the two is 10000 with about 32o,-
OOO straw ballots returned. Certainly
il must be said that the visible S!3nS
point to Democratic victory. Here the
democrats are apparently working
wholly together this year. Al smith
who hung back for months in nun, is
now making campaign speeches Ior
Roosevelt and Garner, although so lar
he has refrained from saying ANYTHING
in praise of either Roosevelt or Garner
personally. He contents himself with
declaring that the country needs the
Democratic party and that partys ad-
ministration. Smith is the last OF the
big tent this year.
Then see what is happening out West.
With few exceptions the lnSurgent Re-
publican leadeTs-the progressive
have jumped to Roosevelt. Norris OF
Nebraska. johnson Of California. La
Toilette of Wisconsin, Cutting OF New
Mexico are out beating the bushes Tor
Roosevelt NOlbS. EOO lI4C L ISSAOSA4N AlAbSN
face the combined efforts Of the Demo-
Gratis and the Republican progressives-
lust as he has had to face it in Con-
gress. The combination kicked up such
a muss that it brought the Senate and
House into considerable disrepute in
the country. Perhaps the present
alliance of the Democrats and progress
sive Republicans in this presidential
campaign will have the effect of caus-
ing some of the voters to sideStep
Roosevelt and Jump to Hoover. I'm
doubtedly such an effect already has
been observable among business men
who have no confidence in the progress
Democratic hook-up. Here in the
East the Democrats have sensed this
danger and are doing their best to have
their most outstanding conservative
leaders speak day and night to create
the impression that Roosevelt Is no
radical but that he will give the coun-