Evening star., 1932-07-31
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

" enter the maze of this years
"A presidential campaign is to
4 a consider it from the point of
view Of Roosevelt's chance to
win.
In almoot 40 years. since 1892, the
Democrats have won just two presiden-
tial elections. To go back farCher than
40 years for comparison is useless. Any
conditions earlier than 1892 are 50
dissimilar from today's that they pro-
vide no worthwhile precedent.
The two presidential elections which
the Democrats have won in 40 years
Neither of Wilson's successes provide
any precedent for today. Wilson won
his 1912 election because the Repub-
licans were split in two, with William
H. Taft running as the candidate of
the regular Republicans, and Theodore
Roosevelt as the candidate Of the pro-
gresSives. And Wilson won his 1916
election on a single issue, HE kept US
out OF war"-with the implication that
If reelected he would continue to keep
us out. Because the West opposed the
war and contained manv German COM
munities Wilson carried that territory
as no other Democratic candidate ever
carried the West before.
Obviously, then, the two Woodrow
wilson successes had special reasons
and stand by themselves. There is no
precedent in them for Democratic sue
cess this year. There is no such prece-
dent in any election during 40 years.
Compared With 1896.
The election which has the closest
similarity to the present was the one
in 1896, in which Democratic William
J. Bryan ran-ard lost-against Repub-
icau William Mckinley. ANY COM
parison of this campaign with the 1895
one would be misleading if pushed too
far. There are. however, some funda-
mental sinilarities. In 1895, as now,
there was deep economic distress. In
1896. as now. the country wos IN the
third year of panic. In 1896 BRYAN
ran on promise to rescue the debtor:
today, Roosevelt runs on a Similar
promise to rescue the forgotten man,"
In one important respect there is a
difference between Bryan in 1896 and
Roosevelt In 1882. Bryan in 1896 had
a specific cure for depression. The cure
was more money, free coinage Of silver.
It was concrete and 1t was alluring.
Bryan'S suggested cure became the
issue Of the campaign, understood by
specific cure. No one can think off,
hand Of any one concrete step proposed
by Roosevelt as a comprehensive cure
for distress. Roosevelt is running
merely on broad general expression
OF sympathy for the forgotten man. It
may be that later on Roosevelt will pro-
pose a specific cure, or a specific pro-
gram. His waving of making any
formal acceptance speech would seem.
however, to imply that Roosevelt Is not
going to lay down any concrete program.
From the fact that Roosevelt takes
the side of the discontented and dis
treSsed. the forgotten man"-the side
that Is called, loosely and inexactly,
''radical"-from this fact two things
follow One is that Roosevelt must
reconcile himself to the probability of
losing New York State. New York
State has never gone for this type of
candidate, nor. indeed, for any Demo-
cratic candidate of any type Except in
1912 when the conditions we're abnor-
maD. What radical vote there is in
New York State, or what discontented
vote, or progressive vote, or whatever
you choose to call it-thiS type of politi-
cal thought in New York State COM
monty expresses itself by voting for the
Socialist candidate 1t will do so this
time. The Socialist candidate should
receive this year the largest vote that
party has ever had, both in New York
State and in the Nation. In any event,
Roosevelt by the nature of his cam
paign must be regarded as not likely
to carry New York State. AS of today
he is so regarded by disinterested OBJ
servers. And if Roosevelt does not carry
New York State then he can only win
q VT- 40 Z
overwhelmingly. That is the way the
situation lies today. 1t may, Of course,
change by November.
Threatened by Recovery.
The other consequences of the posi-
tion Roosevelt is in, as a candidate ap-
pealing to the distressed, as a benefici-
ary of depression, is that he will be
likely to lose II the depression lifts. Let
the times become better even family
better, just enough to suggest a change
and in that case Roosevelt Is likely
to lose. When a candidate or a party
makes its appeal on the existence of de-
preston, any degree Of relief from the
depression becomes fatal. Bryan lost
that way in 1896. In late August and
early September Of that year the three
year depression began to lift There
were slight rises in the prices Of wheat,
cotton, some other commodities and
some securities. With that everybody
knew Bryan would lose. If there should
be, this year, the beginning of recovery
during the coming 10 weeks, the judg-
ment would be general that Roosevelt
would lose.
That is the way the campaign lies
today. except that prohibition plays a
part. How that will work out remains
to be seen.
Would it be possible to reduce this
bedeviling prohibition question, as it
exists in this campaign, to a simple,
primer-like statement? Let us try:
The Democratic party promises COM
plete repeal of the prohibition amend
ment, 100 per cent repeal, naked re-
peal" as Senator Borah calls it; or
repeal without qualification, as wet
Pierre du Pont calls it. If the Demo-
cratic platform were in effect we would
be right back where we were in 1919,
before the eighteenth amendment ex-
isted. The Democrats propose to get
rid Of the eighteenth amendment
wholly, utterly, absolutely-and any
other word that means complete up
roofing.
The Republican platform looks to
the eighteenth amendment
partially, but not wholly. The Repub-
lican plank would let any State have
liquor sold within its borders whenever
a simple majority of the voters of the
State say they want it. In terms of
wet New York, that State can have
liquor made and sold whenever a ma
jority Of the people so vote. But this
right of the Safes is, in the Republican
platform, subject to two limitations.
The Republican plank, while repeating
the substance of the eighteenth
amendment, retains two rights for the
Federal Government. One is to prevent
shipment of liquor from any wet State
into a dry State. protect dry States"
as it Is called. Second, the Federal
Government retains the right to for
bid saloons, even in wet States.
Dry Fight Uncertain.
How the prohibition question will OPP
crate in this campaign no one can
estimate yet. But the ultimate out
come of the fight, where the country