Evening star., 1932-11-06
HOOVER GAINS SEEN
THROUGHOUT U. S.
Many States Once Certain for
Roosevelt Are Now in
Doubtful Column.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

to be landslide proportions. Within the
last three weeks there has been an un-
trend toward Hoover. 1t has
made States doubtful that were reason
ably sure for Roosevelt. 1t has made
prophecy about some States a mere con-
lecture by people in those States who
have watched political trends for
generation or more
Fully $50 kilograms received in the
last 48 hours from editors In all i'm
portant States indicate even those who
have been In the habit Of observing
elections are somewhat
puzzled in specific instances and are
cautious about trusting their own judg-
ment.
All this may sound surprising in the
face Of straw votes and polls that have
given Roosevelt the benefit
of the tide that has been running in
nearly every State against the admins
tration on account Of the belief that
President Hoover and the Republicans
brought bad times" or somehow should
have found a way to cure them. But
while 1t seems incredible that Hoover
could possibly win all the States that
are showing some inclination toward
him-for he would have to get all the
breaks" to achieve victory-still the
writer cannot ignore the fact that In
both the East and West Hoover has
been gaining ground.
Elections Run in Tides.
Elections run In tides They are
rarely Spotty. II the President, for
instance. is making gains in Nebraska,
he should be gaining also in Utah or
in South Dakota. If he is pushing for
ward in Illinois his fortunes should be
rising also in Indiana and Ohio. There
is a SamenesS about the attitude OF
pc ople in neighboring agricultural
States which, barring some local diff
Guilty or factional fight, shows the way
the tide is running
Iowa and Illinois were definitely Ia
the Democratic column a few weeks
ago. Today a number OF editors who
know those States well have telegraphed
a belief that Hoover may carry them.
The same change has occurred In In
diana and TO lesser degree in Ohio.
One Democratic editor who for many
weeks believed Roosevelt would carry
Ohio by 100000 now revises his esti-
mate down to 100000. But the sum
total of information from that State
rather leaves one in doubt. for pluralt-
ties are big in the Buckeye State and
the recent reversal in the rural districts
is of unknown proportions.
Minnesota has been doubtful, but b
leaning toward Hoover and he was
there last night making speech that
his managers think viii cinch the
States electoral vote.
California is close, but Hoover has
the edge in the opinion of some in
formants IN both the northern and
southern sections.
New York presents a problem IN
Tammany politics. If Tammany
doesn't take revenge for the Walker
investigation, then Roosevelt will come
out of Greater New York with 100000,
which is more than enough to offset
any upstate majority. II indeed there
is such thing in the Empire State
this year with the low totals OF regis
tration in the upper end Of the State.
But can Hoover win without New York?
He could-but 1t is doubtful If he will,
extremely doubtful And if election
night the returns indicate the President
is losing New York then indeed is his
cause dealt a body blow Here is
table which sets forth Hoover's best
chances and after reading 1t one must
examine It's weak spots to determine
whether 1t is useful guide in any
respect. If the table falls down in any
particular in appraising his strength
then the Hoover chances are dashed
to the ground II 1t seems 100 per cent
convincing then the President can be
said to have better than an outside
chance. The estimate from such
viewpoint follows:
Table Of Possible Votes.
~
Hampshire, 4; Massachusetts,, II;
Indiana, IA; Pennsylvania. So; Della
ware. 8; Vermont, 8; Montana, 4 Kan
sas, 8; Wyoming, 8; West Virginia.
g. New Jersey, is: Connecticut, 8:
Maine, s.; Utah, 4, Illinois, 90; Mime
sofa, IL; Iowa, IL; Ohio. 26. Total,
270 Necessary TO elect, 266.
But in the foregoing table Minnesota
is shaky, and so is Ohio. Either one
would shatter the set-up. 1t may be,
however, that New York with At, which
is not in the above group of States. will
furnish q surprise if Tammany really
does not deliver its vote to Roosevelt
Any such happening would enable
Hoover to lose Illinois and Ohio. whose
total vote is SIS, and then IL he picks up
Rhode Island with 4, he would still
have 266.
This presupposes that everything else
besides Ohio and Illinois in the above
table will stand pat If Hoover did carry
New York Well, the table Of Hoover
chances isn't as stanch as 1t looks Ne
braska and Kansas are weak spots, and
50 are Minnesota and Iowa.
Can Mr.. Hoover carry every single
State in the above table? There are
five that he must California,
Ohio, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa. He
may carry two Of them or even three,
but he Is lost unless he gets five out
Of five. 1t is possible, but not probable.
Having demonstrated that the Presi-
dent has only an outside chance and
then only II he has the breaks
which means that the tide OF the last
two weeks must mount higher than It
has already-the next thing to deter
mine is what minimum there is from o
Roosevelt viewpoint. 1t matters little
how the final electoral votes come in
just so long as the 266 is assured. It
is more important to see II a definite
prediction can be made on the outcome
of the election rather than to attempt
an exact mathematical table when
there are SO many combinations pos
slble. The interest is in who will be
the next President. and few people re-
member the exact way the electoral
votes are Tailed after 266 is reached.
Minimum for Roosevelt.
The irreducible minimum for Roose-
welt is as follows: Alabama. II: Arizona,
8. Arkansas, 9; Colorado, s; Florida, 7;
Georgia. IL; Idaho, 4; Illinois, 20; Ken
lucky, IL; Louisiana, 10; Maryland, 8;
Mississippi. 9. Missouri, Is: Nebraska, Z;
Nevada, 8; New Mexico, 8; North Caro-
lima. Ia; North Dakota. 4; Ohio. rs;
Oklahoma. IL; South Carolina, 8; South
Dakota, A: Tennessee, IL; Texas, %;
Virginia, IL Washington, 8; Wisconsin,
IL. Total, 279 Necessary to elect, 266.
1t will be noted that by the foregoing
Roosevelt wins without New York, Cali
fornia. Indiana. Iowa, Kansas, Mas
sachusetts. Minnesota, New Jersey. or
West Virginia and the writer believes
that Franklin Roosevelt has better than
an even chance of carrying at least fivs
out Of those nine states. Hence the
final electoral table may look quite DIFF
ferent from either one given above, but
II vvo,,cf ba nOfad that k~AY~