Evening star., 1932-05-15
BY GEORGE VAN sLYKE.

NEW 1oetA, may l4.-AS the pOilLl-
cal fog enveloping Congress lifts slowly
prohibition is likely to be the pivotal
issue in the elections this year. With
the national conventions only one
month away, the liquor controversy
crowds forward more tnsistently as the
trouble maker in both conventions and
elections. Candidates and parties can
not hope this year to escape facing the
issue squarely.
Concentrating heavily on the eco
nomic problem, President Hoover has
asserted leadership at critical moment
and improved his position in relation to
that question. He has been aided by
the failure of the Democrats in Con-
gress to present solid front and more
offered. The depression will count
heavily In the Nation next Autumn If
there is no improvement, but as par
tisan issue 1t now appears partly dis
counted.
Prohibition cuts across both parties,
but the important political considera-
ton is that 1t weighs most heavily in
the Eastern States, with big electoral
votes, which are fighting grounds in
national elections and which the Demo-
Gratis count on carrying as their one
hope of winning the presidency
II unemployment continues unabated,
there will be the danger to the Repub-
] licans OF a big protest vote against the
administration. Yet the depression is
likely to be felt more impressively in
those farm States which are heavily
Republican; where prohibition is not as
vital as In the urban centers of popu-
Iattnr ~ xuk hn
take a loss and still hold their States.
The president may get help from many
sources in the East in dealing with the
economic problem, such as the nomina-
tion Of a Democratic radical, but there
is no getting around or over prohibition
in that area.
Numerous recent developments have
al projected toward the common point
the prohibition issue. The wet VIC
tory in Ohio, citadel of the drys, in the
primary this week; the accumulative
evidence of the Literary Digest and To-
cal polls; the aggressive attitude Of
the women'S powerful organizations for
prohibition reform; the more tolerant
attitude Of Senate Republicans and
drys, even calling for the opinion of
John M. Morehead, Minister to Sweden,
who was excluded for four years; the
emphatic pronouncements of prominent
educators that reform must be achieved
all sum UP to q formidable total
showing the penetrating vitality Of this
liquor question as 1t permeates all poll
tics. Even the depression itself has
focused attention on prohibition as
means OF producing revenue to ease the
tax burden and supplying the impetus
needed to jolt the country out of its rut
Pressing as Is the need for united ac-
ton and definite, determined policy,
both parties are approaching the con-
ventions still far from a decision on
their planks. The Republicans fully
recognize the situation and are dimin-
ishing the white paper supply as they
rewrite daily their plank. The Presi-
dent is credited with leaving 1t to the
convention to Ak the policy.
The sectional conflict flares up with
each new attempt at a compromise.
The Republicans are almost certain to
end up in battle over the plank, which
Will supply the fireworks of their con-
yention. The dry organizations look to
the Republican party as their hope and
will fight to the end to keep the con-
vention from back-sliding.
Slightly better of than the Repub-
ncans, the Democrats start off mildly
wet, but with every possibility and po-
tentiallty for disaster present in their
diverse factions IN the convention. Al
fred z. Smith and the wet Eastern wing
Will battle for strong wet plank, al
though he has indicated he will be sat-
isfled with the proposal Of John j. Ras-
kob for State referendum In consti-
tutional conventions. The Republicans,
too. may turn to that proposition as the
easy way out.
But the great body of Democrats in
the West and South, credited with
backing Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt of
New York for the nomination for Presi-
dent, may not care to go as far as AL
smith and the right wing With Smith
and Roosevelt in a fight for control.
prohibition in all probability will be
used as the bone of contention. Smith
Is expected to press to the limit in his
effort to drive q wedge into the Roose-
velt phalanx.
Approached from any angle, prohibi-
tion promises to be the big feature Of
the two conventions and. unless history
Is reversed and the unexpected comes
true, to move the electorate deeply from
convention time to election day.
***
One month hence and the big show
viii be starting on In Chicago. The
Republicans have the stage nrst. The
pre-convention struggle is about ended.
Nearly q score Of State delegations are
to be elected in the next few weeks, but
the primary contests are closed. There
are no more decisive State battles ahead
on the Democratic side. The drift and
trends are pretty well solidifled until
the contestants swing into action In
convention.
Looking back for six months over the
period OF the pre-conyention campaign.
1t Is easy TO sum up the important de-
velopments which become impressive as
indices of what is to happen next
month. Here are the main features to
date: