Evening star., 1932-04-24
BY FRANK III. SIMONDs.


HARIs.-In the language of the
- race track, the Forthcoming
French election Is a horse race
i That is to say. all present indi-
cations seem to point to a re-
suit as close as the last congressional
election in America, and one vastly
more complicated. In the present
Chamber of Deputies now to be renewed
the 615 seats we're roughly divided be-
tween two groups: the majority, which
has been led in urn by Poincare. Tar
dieu and Law i. and is now following
Tardieu again, a. the minority, again
divided betwee.. he Radicals following
Herriot and the Socialists headed by
Blum. Between the two groups was a
margin which varied from 80 to SO
voces.
This old Chamber was elected by the
country still under the influence of
Poincare and grateful for his achieve
ment in restoring French credit This
majority bestowed upon Poincare was
conservative in financial and economic
matters and nationalist in foreign af-
fairs. But 1t tempered its nationalism
by including BRAND in its various cabi-
nets and continuing him in charge of
foreign affairs, nominally until a few
WCCho UCAOlc IlC OlcQ, OuL ACTUALLY uIl-
til the Austro-German Tariff Union
venture of last Spring reused French
apprehenSions and destroyed the whole
structure of Locarno
Once i'll health had forced Poincare
to retire, Tardieu became what he re-
malns-the strongest figure in French
politics and the leader of the elements
which made up the majority in the old
house. Moreover, although he gave way
to Laval for many months after having
headed French delegations both at The
Hague and at the London Naval Con-
ference. his was the decisive influence
and Laval sent him to Geneva to repre-
sent France in the Disarmament Con-
ference still in progress. And it was
while he was there that the Senate
overturned Laval and cleared the way
Tor third Tardieu cabinet.
Minority Gains Expected.
What then, are the prospects for the
new Chamber and what effect will the
election have upon French foreign pol
icy at a time when it is clear the whole
European situation, and, indeed, the
condition Of the world. Is critical?
AS to the first question, one must con-
Tess at once that the forecasts are too
conflicting and confused to give any
basis to the foreign observer for useful
estimates. On the whole, however.
there seems to be consensus of opin-
ION that certain gain will be scored
by the parties Of the left, that is. the
RADICALS and Socialists. who are now
IN the minority. And while both groups
seem destined to gain most observers
give the Socialists a larger profit
But again, will this gain be enough
to insure the elimination CT the
Tardieu-Laval combination and the
appearance Of a radical ministry
headed by Painleve or Herriot and
backed by Socialists? AS the Social.
lists are sure in any event to count
well above a hundred it Is plain that
without their votes no radical cabinet
can exist. Assuming that the fore
casts Of the majority are accurate,
hcwever, there will be a left cabinet
n which Herriot and Painleve will
play considerable roles. One or the
other will probably be premier.
Nevertheless such a cabinet will find
Itself at once in difficult situation
for on the one hand it will have to
take orders from Blum and the
Socialists to survive, and on the other
it will be faced by danger of dis
1ntegration IN its own ranks due to the
wide difference between certain radical
groups and the Socialists 1t will too
be at the mercy of any sudden attack
from the enemy based upon alleged
socialistic experiments in national
affairs or weakness in foreign policy.
Could Start Panic.
Six years ago Herriot ministry
was brought down because of the
crisis In the franc. And the essential
weakness of the radicals lies in the
fact that its leaders are doctrinaires,
Herriot a man of letters and Painleve
a professor of mathematics. Most of
big business and high finance Is
represented on the other side of the
Chamber. and views with extreme
suspicion the control of France at this
statesmen. Nothing would be simpler
than to start a panic against the
Radical-Socialist Cartel like that which
threw the Labor-Liberal group cut of
power in London a year ago.
In foreign affairs, too, the left Is
similarly lacking In first class men.
Had BRAND lived it would certainly
have restored him to office, but he Is
g7ne. Undoubtedly Boncour will be
among the possibilities for the foreign
Office, but the Socialists resent his
still recent desertion, the radicals are
net over fond of him and, while the
present majority have kept him on at
Geneva, he lacks prestige and emphati-
cally does not have the confidence Of
the country. Herriot, too, is himself
anxious again to take over the Quai
d'Orsai and renew his old association
with Ramsay Macdonald of the Dawes
plan days.
What most observers expect is that
there will be victory for the Radical
Socialists, but a relatively limited
victory allowing them to take Office
with only a nominal majority But
once In Office they will be exposed to
the dangers coming from differences
between Radicals and Socialists with
in and panics manipulated from with
out What is expected is brief stay
IN power and rapid collapse to make
way for something else.
This something else, which might even
come at once If no majority we're
turned up at the election, would be
what the French call a cabinet Of
concentration and would mean the
union Of the moderates belonging to
both the Right and Left, excluding the
extreme NationalisCs and Socialists