Evening star., 1932-03-06
LEADERS AWAIT FIRST TEST
OF ROOSEVELT-SMITH VOTE
New Hampshire Primary Result May Give
Baffled Democrats an Insight Into
Party Situation.

factor. Alfalfa Bill" Murray is going
to the convention in person as a dele
gate. OF that he has assured himself
by controlling his own Oklahoma dele
cation. He will have a considerable
number of delegates. perhaps { hun
dred, perhaps more-in any eveny as
many as some others who are looked
upon as formida5 bic. At the convention
Murray will put himself on the Reso-
lutions Committee, which writes the
| platform. In the committee he Will
propose some extraordinary planks-po
stale point with pride" platitudes for
Alfalfa Bill" One of Murray's pro-
vocative planks will propose currency
based on cotton, wheat and other farm
crops. In the committee he and his
plank will be defeated, because prob
ably majority Of the committee will
/ be conservative.
Murray counts on that: it is part Of
his careful staging of his plan. There
upon Murray will go before the conven-
ton with a minority report This is
what Murray looks forward to as his
great opportunity. His tactics are easy
to foresee. He will talk not only to the
convention, but to a whole Nation lis
tening on the radio. Murray will try to
make Bryan speech, the equivalent of
the cross Of gold one, with which
Bryan stampeded the convention and
seized the nomination in 1896. (Query:
Can man Of Murray'S age, 50, make a
Bryan speech? Murray is a real SPELL
binder, let no one doubt that. But was
not Bryan's youth, 36, an essential ele-
ment In the glamorouS magnetism of
his cross of gold speech?)
Murray may not stampede the con-
vention-a majority Of delegates will be
pretty non-resistant to emotional ora
tory. But even If Murray loses, what
will the party leaders do about him
and the passions he will have aroused
In a listening Nation, or at least the
distressed part of 1t, which is pretty
large? To what extent will the party
leaders feel obliged to take account of
that in their nominee and in their
| platform?
RooseveIt-Smith Situation.
On one pretty important aspect of
the Democratic situation We shall get
light next Tuesday. In New Hampshire
on that day will be a contest between
partisans Of Roosevelt and of Smith to
determine which shall have the dele
gates from that State in the Demo-
cratic Convention. 1t will be a clear
cut contest Zen these two. No other
name Is entere The New Hampshire
primary law (along perhaps with that
OF Ohio) Is the most rigid in the coun-
Try. Under it one set Of candidates for
delegates Is pledged specifically to vote
In the convention for Smith, the other
Tor Roosevelt. The outcome on Tues
day will be important far beyond the
| comparatively small number of dele
gates involved, which Is eight.
The New Hampshire result will be ac-
cepted as barometer suggesting the
relative strength of Smith and Roose-
velt in the rest of the East, particu-
larry Massachusetts,, Connecticut, Rhode
Island and Pennsylvania. If Smith
should win heavily in New Hampshire.
his followers In the other Eastern States
VIII be encouraged. II thereafter Smith
should again win heavily In the other
eastern, states, he viii become a very
formidable force in the convention,
Victory by Smith in these Eastern
States might even result in New York
State itself turning to Smith.
However, II Roosevelt should win
heavily in New Hampshire next Tues
day that would have the effect of eIe-
waiting Roosevelt'S fortunes very mate
rally and correspondingly diminishing
Smiths weight in the convention.
It Is not going to be simple to in
terpret the New Hampshire outcome.
AAS 0koIC ~ dAVAACQy 1OuSAlly, OtIH6Gn
q considerable city, Manchester. and
rural towns" as they are called in New
England, townships in other parts of
the country. Smiths strength is mainly
in the city, RooSevelt's in the rural
districts. AS between these sections,
weather counts. In the city, where
Smith is strong, it is easy for the voters
to go to the polls, regardless of weather.
In the rural territory, upon which
Roosevelt mainly depends, either a
March blizzard quite possible in New
Hampshire or the opposite, Spring
thaw" might keep the voters home.
Thanks to the good sense of leaders on
both sides. religion has been kept out
of the New Hampshire contest. Of the
candidates for delegate on the Roose-
velt slate, eight out of twelve are
Catholics.
Leaders Favor Roosevelt.
As respects not only New Hampshire,
but generally. developments between
Roosevelt and Smith have followed GER
tain roughly identical lines. Preced-
ing Smiths announcement on February
8 (Which was rather late) many of the
local party leaders all over the country
had identified themselves with Roose-
welt. Roosevelt was far in the lead; he
seemed the logical andidate-indeed,
for time, almost the inevitable one.
To nominate Roosevelt seemed the
path toward party peace and party VIC
tory in November. Under that condi-
ton considerable majority of the local
party leaders and workers had lined up
with Roosevelt. After Smiths an
nouncement they kept that position. BY
that time, as is usual, and according
with both politics and human nature,
their emotions had become involved.
Local leaders thus situated tended to
regard Smiths announcement as tend
ing to mar party harmony. Since
Smiths announcement there has been
no measurable detection of local leaders
from Roosevelt to Smith. Consequently,
so far as the primaries everywhere are
largely influenced by the local leaders,
so far as public participation is COM
partively slight, the situation favors
Roosevelt
Below the ranks Of leaders the situa-
ton is somewhat different. The pub
lie. the rank and file of Democratic
voters, had not, up to the time Of
Smiths announcement, become inter-
ested. Roosevelt had not. up to that
time, developed any strongly aggressive
public following In the comparatively
indifferent state Of mind in which the
rank and file were. Smith normally has
a larger personal following. certainly in
the Eastern States, than Roosevelt.
These voters had followed Smith in the
1928 campaign, had become consciously
loyal to him-certainly they were so in
1928. In short, one would assume that
in New Hampshire next Tuesday, and
elsewhere in the East. so far as the
rank and file of voters get stirred up
and go to the primaries, the existing
condition in the Eastern States favorS
Smith. To say the same thing in other
words. If Smiths position in the pres
ent situation appeals to the rank and
6la of Dernncratic nntarc (ir, thn M e