Evening star., 1932-10-27
SWING TO HOOVER
HELD IMPORTANT
Straw Vote Trend Is De-
cIared Indication of Greater
Turn When Whole Vote Cast.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

A tloe winch has got under way In
favor of President Hoover is exciting
almost as much interest in Washing
ton as the Maine result in the opposite
direction during the early part of the
campaign.
Newspapers which took polls or made
surveys some weeks ago are now going
back over the same territory. The
Washington correspondent of an i'm
portant newspaper who had completed
his campaign tour is today starting out
again. Surveys made of Ohio three
weeks ago gave the State to the Demo-
Gratis by majorities as high as 10000.
More recent surveys. some by the same
observers. reduce the present Demo-
cratic advantage to much smaller fig
ures. The Hearst Nation wide poll up
to September 26 gave Mr. Hoover only
43 per cent Of the total Recent daily
installments Of new votes give him As
per cent.
Trend is Stronger.
The significant fact is that the new
trend grows stronger from day to day
AS late as two weeks ago, practically
all community polls in normally doubt
full territory showed Gov Roosevelt
leading. More recent polls show In
some important spots Mr. Hoover lead
ing. A poll of Buffalo by the Evening
News gives Mr. Hoover 60 per cent
of the vote. This is especially impor-
tant because of its bearing on how
New York State will 60 So long as
New York is either likely to be for Mr.
Hoover or doubtful, the national elec-
ton is doubtful.
1t Is impossible to doubt that the
new status of the campaign IS impor-
tant. Practically always in discussions
OF the new tide toward Mr.. Hoover,
qualification is made by adding some
thing about the brevity of the time it
has to go. In the case CT the Literary
Digest poll. which is the most unfavor-
able to the Republicans. it is estimated
that at the present tate of swing to-
ward Mr. Hoover he would win If he
had two months to go. In this form
OF expression and of thinking. there is
a fallacy, the correction of which works
favorably to Mr.. Hoover. What is in
VolVed in this swing as 1t appears in
straw votes Is not so much time as
quantity. Seen accurately Mr.. Hoover
really has all the time there is, be-
cause the total vote will come out on
election day. Seen this way. the new
tide. whatever its strength. will express
itself with maximum effect on the total
electorate on election day.
Polls Seen in Error.
The arising of the new tide has
brought into question the earlier straw
votes which seemed to point over
whelmingly toward the Democrats
Some detail of both the Hearst and
the Literary Digest Nation wide polls.
especially the Digest one, nave carried
on their face provocation to doubt.
The Digest poll has been giving Perm
sylvania to the Democrats by about
3 to 2.
This is against all precedent and
Pennsylvania has not gone Democratic
IN presidential election in the rs
years since the present lineup of par
ties. This assigning of Pennsylvania
to the Democrats is contrary to the in
dlcatlon of this years registration in
the State. The registration is 2.91l,-
O68 Republicans and only 833, GIT Demo-
Gratis. Actually fewer Democrats are reg
istered this year than in 1923. Com
petent observers and political leaders
are certain the Digest indication of
Pennsylvania going Democratic is gro
tesque. Something of the same kind
is true of California which the Digest
poll has been giving to the Democrats by
W l. Ills StcLIlS IlCEeOlDle. ne
registration in the State is 1855, ,333
Republicans and 1,l61773 Democrats.
One possible cause for an earlier
Democratic tide turning now to a Re-
publican one may lie in the method of
the Democratic campaign. The method
has been to build up Gov. Roosevelt and
not to convert voters to him. but rather
merely to capitalize existing disposition
to vote against Mr.. Hoover. As it is
put by Frank Kent in the Democratic
Baltimore Sun:
1T Is amazing how little pro-Roose-
velt talk there is Hardly any of
the newspapers supporting Roosevelt eu-
logizes him. They spend their editorial
energy almost entirely hammering Mr..
Hoover. They go for days at a time
without commendatory word for Gov.
Roosevelt. The same thing is noticed in
the chief Democratic spokesmen on the
stump and in the air.
Personal Enthusiasm Lacking.
The result, says Mr.. Kent, is that
there is no great personal enthusiasm
for the Democratic candidates. The odds
are in favor of their election, but their
success will be due neither to who they
are nor what they stand for That is
the outstanding feature of this contest.
1t is apparent in every State"
The Democratic strategy of merely
reaping the anti-Hoover vote seemed in
the beginning sound enough Among
other advantages it would, if successful,
enable their candidate to take office
without any commitments to groups of
voters or on issues. In the light Of the
present apparent change of the tide,
however. this strategy turns out unfor-
tunate for the Democrats. Without any
building up by the Democrats of their
own candidates, several events and con-
ditions have aided Mr.. Hoover.
1t should be added that the cumu-
lative net of all the Nationwide polls
to date continues to point toward