Evening star., 1932-07-31
CHAOS AFTER ELECTION
In GERMANY IS FEARED
Dictatorship of Fascist, Red or Junker
Type Possible-No Decisive
Voting Expected.

AS a consequence some form OF die
tatorship is now inevitable But can
that dictatorship be achieved without
bloodshed? Can it provide order, once
it is in control? These are the ques-
tions which cannot be settled by the
election, but must be answered by post
election events But the attempt to
impose a dictatorship depending simply
upon the army and the Nationalist
party-that is, to perpetuate the exist
ing control-seems out of the question
if the HitleriteS stand firmly against 1t,
because such a dictatorship would rest
on a voting strength of no more than
100000 in an electorate Of $4,000 900.
1t has frequently been suggested that
Hindenburg could prolong the present
control by dissolving the newly elected
Reichstag and ordering another election
and repeating this process lndeflnite-
ly But this device seems trlf1e too
violent to serve overlong. AS for any
real combination of HitleriteS and Ma
tionalistS, this seems only possible as
the domination of Hitler is accepted.
For the 'Nazis" the present cabinet has
been no more than transition govern
ment They have endured it, at a
price, but they have not accepted it as
a permanent control.
The present outbreak of disorder in
Germany and the bitter fighting going
on between Fascists and Communists
is a fair evidence of what would be
likely to occur on a grand scale II a
Fascist dictatorship were installed. Not
impossibly the Social Democrats and
Communists might combine for another
general strike like that which upset the
Kapp putsch a decade ago In any
event, chaos seems almost certain to
result and the private advices I receive
from Germany foreshadow an explosion.
Parties Hold Strength.
In looking at the election returns,
too, 1t is well to note what has actually
been taking place. Thus, despite the
enormous expansion of the vote OF the
Hitlerites, there has been no correspond
ing shrinkage in three of the four other
great parties 1t is true that the Social
Democrats have lost, but the Com
munists have gained almost pari passu,
and the aggregate strength of these two
parties has not diSintegrated to any
such extent as would appear on the
surface. As for the Center and Bavarian
Peoples party, they have not lost at all. |
The great gain OF the Fascists has
resulted from the disintegration of the |
parties which we're largely made up of |
the middle classes. 1t is from the |
splinter" parties, to which the States |
and Peoples party must now be added, |
that Hitler has drawn his recruits. Only |
the old Nationalist party has suffered |
from desertions on grand scale to the !
Fascists. Thus while the splinter"
parties in the last Reichstag counted |
more than a hundred seats. in the next |
they will doubtless hold little more than |
81 if Tho ono nj ~ |
as great as is now forecast, the loss |
of the Social Democrats and Com |
munists will hardly exceed a dozen |
seats in the aggregate, and there is little |
likelihood that the Center will lose |
at all.
The worst single aspect of the whole |
German situation is that the middle |
class and the moderate political groups |
have been concomitantly abolished. |
Two thirds of the electorate belong to |
the Nazi and Social Democrat-Com-
munists groups between which no form |
of cooperation is possible. AS for the |
Center. its historic role of balance wheel |
is no longer possible for it, because 1t |
is made up alike of working class votes |
and more conservative elements bound |
together by the religious tie. Thus, it |
is equally unable 70 ally itself with
FdSClSt ana COHlHuIllSl. 1
Outlook Declared Grim.
In sum. the outlook after the election |
in Germany is grim. That election Is
far more likely to precipitate a new !
crisis and fresh domestic chaos than to |
prepare the way for any coalition gov
ernment and a resumption of orderly |
political and economic life. Germany |
has actually become battle ground |
between FaScism and Communism, with |
the old Nationalist elements, which |
once ruled in the empire, trying to head
off Fascist control by military die
tatorship of its own.
And it is this situation within the
Reich which deprives the agreements |
of Lausanne of any great Importance. !
To abolish reparations payments IS, in
itself, no more than formal gesture,
since German capacity to pay is clearly
non- existent. The real value could only !
come in the shape of beneficial in
huence upon German domestic political
conditions. But the gesture has come
too late for that. And the proof OF this
lies in the fact that the ''Nazis" are
now making successful use of Lausanne
for domestic political agitation.
Unless all signs fail Germany is now
on the eve Of a new period OF domestic
chaos Not impossibly this chaos may
lead to Fascist and Red dictatorshlps,
in turn. and civil war cannot be ex-
cluded from the list Of possibilities.
Naturally none of these calamitieS is
inevitable. But all present evidence
confirms the conviction I found every
where in Europe last Winter and
Spring-that political order and there
fore economic and financial readjust-
ment are still away in the distance,
so far as Germany is concerned.
tCopyrlghL. 1922