Evening star., 1932-09-18
EVENTUAL REICH SUCCESS
IN ARMS DEMAND is SEEN
Even French Are Resigned to Certainty
That Germany Will Escape Unilateral
Provisions in Treaty of Versailles.

Germany and Italy-as well as Japan
will withdraw from the League OF Ma
tions. Such course. coupled with the
similar prospect OF a refusal on the
part of the Soviet Union to return to
Geneva for the Arms Conference,
would not only doom that Conference.
for which there Is no present prospect
Of useful achievement, but would deal
the League the heavist blow in its
brief history.
And that is the threat Germany is
holding over the British heads in the
matter of disarmament and Japan in
the case of the Lytton report. Nor Is
the British situation made easier by
the fact that in the United States there
is a plain tendency to make debt con-
cessions contingent upon reduction OF
armaments in Europe. The British
know that japan cannot be forced out
of Manchuria, and will not retire save
in the face of force; they are similarly
aware that the French will not reduce
their ornaments in the face Of present
German conditions and italian policy;
they perceive Germany will not stay
disarmed and cannot be forced to en-
dure the present situation long. Last
of all they are perfectly aware that
war debts are not going to be paid.
British craftsmanship and diplomacy
would like to keep all the balls in the
air at once, but it is plainly aware that
this is impossible. In this situation it
will begin by persuading the French to
meet the technical German demands.
And it will succeed.
If. however, such French concessions
do not lead Germany to postpone rails
ing the larger issue and avoid threats.
Britain will stand with France. Out OF
the chaos which must result, closer
Franco British association must emerge.
And that is going to put the United
States in an interesting but far from
comfortable situation. For the Hoover
Administration has made disarmament
a matter of immediate concern. Such
disarmament Is, however, impossible
while Continental conditions are IN
their present situation. Nevertheless
Germany and Italy-and Soviet Russia,
as well-will press for armament reduc-
tions as eagerly as the United States,
although for totally different reasons.
AS result if and when the Geneva
Arms Conference reassembles the situ-
alton of the last days before adjourn
ment may be restored. Then the
United States found itself backed by
Russia. Germany and Italy and op-
the Continental allies of France. In
that situation-to the bitter disappoint-
ment of Grandi and Litvinof as well
as Nadolny-Gibson. obviously under
Washington advice. decided to accept
the compromise offered by the British
rather than to force the issue on the
Hoover proposal as urged by Rome,
Moscow and Berlin.
Germany's new move has reopened
the whole question. At Geneva the
Germans will be backed by the Italians
Internationally and by the Bolshevists
as long as they stick to the demand for
reduction and do not threaten re-
armament. But France will not as
sent to extensive military reductions or
Britain to extensive naval reductions
in the present circumstances. Thus
Gibson or whoever represents the
United States will be condemned in
fact to stand with the Revision States
against the status quo in new Euro
pean controversy.
Recognition Is Seen.
On the other hand, the United
States will find itself handicapped in
dealing with the Manchuria affair be-
cause the British and the French are
certain to oppose quietly every effort
to bring the Manchurian question to a
showdown. And If the United States
seeks to force the disarmament issue
Paris certainly. London not improb-
ably, may agree to recognize Manchu-
kuo, and thus to bring to nothing the
whole principle Of the Hoover doctrine
The single restraining factor in this
situation will be the debt question.
This is obviously a card in American
hands. But it is card of only lin
tied value, for the French will not con-
tinue payments on any condition and
the British cannot in the present state
OF national opinion go beyond making
some offer for single cash payment OF
modest proportions, modelled on the
Lausanne example. If that is rejected
directly or disarmament conditions are
attached to acceptance the British will
have to consider reputation and the
French will not hesitate to resort to it
In fact, even If the method Is dis
guised.
All Of which amounts to saying that
II the Arms Conference does resume its
sessions, discussions will actually turn
not upon the question of limitation or
reduction of armies and navies, but
upon Treaty Revision, the Manchurian
Question and the War Debts. And it
Is equally plain that in such discussions
the United States will be involved be-
yond exaggeration in European issues
and controversies and be forced in the
end to take sides as it narrowly es-
capped doing in Midsummer.
Copyright, 1922