Evening star., 1932-03-27
The Renaissance of Hope

promising. Unemployment figures are
dropping. Foreigners are reinvesting
their money in England. Owing to the
rise in the price Of gold. India has been
sending over vast quantities of boarded
metal, which is now coming into cirCu-
lation and giving India new purchasing
power.
Budget Is Balanced.
Complete confidence in Britain's
financial stability has been restored by
the balancing of her budget, the Won
derful steadinesS Of the people in time
of crisis and their willingness to make
any kind of sacrifice for the sake of
the national welfare. This demonstra-
ton of traditional character in England
and Scotland has had a great effect in
Europe, which would have been utterly
demoralized-and, indeed, would have
lurched into general bankruptcy-had
Great Britain defaulted or lost her
credit.
There is a strong belief among Eu-
ropean financierS that the United States
is beginning to see the daylight This
Is based on the hope that the action
of the American Government in releaS-
ing more credit on bank securities will
increase the purchasing power OF the
people and stimulate industrial activity.
So far this belief is not supported by re-
ports from America, which continue to
come across with unrelieved gloom.
Friends of mine from New York fail to
see any rift in the black clouds and re-
fuse to be cheered by any mystical faith
in revival of industry, having been
disillusioned. so often by Unfulflled
hopes. The crash was so great, from
the heights of illusion to the depths OF
rrriy, n fInf f,,I
seems to be fixed in disbelief of any
more cheerful prospect and it is both
cynical and contemptuous Of financial
experts and political optimists.
My own belief is that the United
States will feel slight but steady re-
vival of world conditions before this
year has run its course. If Europe
avoids any fresh crash and works to-
ward peace and security, so that the
standard of living is raised even slightly
in depressed countries, like Germany,
American trade and finance will get the
benefit directly and indirectly. If Eu-
rope buys more meat from the Argen-
tine or more wheat from Canada or
more wool from Australia, money passes
from one country to another-and
American goods are in more demand.
Increased circulation of gold raises
IOLllIlOOICy pitts dlIO 1dl llIClS Uuy IlOIC
from manufacturers. 1t was the in
evitable but 0eplorable sterilization of
gold in American and French banks
which was the first cause of the fall in
prices, and it happened partly because
of the war debts, which could be paid
only in gold and not by exchange Of
goods. That trouble still remains, but
it Is likely that some means will be
found in the future to keep gold mov-
ing more rapidly and more generously
by means of international credit.
World Leadership Up to U. S.
France is prepared to take the lead
in Europe as far as possible, consistent
with security, but world leadership re-
mains with the United States. So far
that has been checked by a lack of
confidence in the countries to which
her money has been loaned. That con-
fldence will not be restored until the
world has definitely shown the will to
peace and the certainty of industrial
security.
The conflict between China and
Japan was a setback to confidence
good may come out
OF evil. It is my belief that there is
a good prospect of something really
drastic in disarmament due to the
pressure of world opinion shocked by
this chapter of recent history.
I am not blind optimist; there are
many ugly facts one has to face. There
will be no magic wave of o wand,
restoring prosperity in week or two
or a month or two. My optimism is
strictly limited, but it does go as far
as the assurance that the world is Just
beginning to move out of its darkest
phase of depression, and that the
intelligence Of mankind is stirring in
the direction of lf-preservation.
We are in better shape than we were
six months ago. We are just a little
way, I think, on the upward curve.
That Is not much but it is the cause of
hope this EaStertide