Evening star., 1932-05-15

possible and keeping everlastingly after
Japan to get out of Manchuria," the
Liberal element In Toxic may succeed
In eventually getting the upper hand,
or at least in bringing the militarists'
ambitions within the bounds of reason.
Few will deny that Japan has not had
ample grievances against the Chinese In
, Manchuria. Few will admit. on the
other hand, that the right tactics have
been applied in seeking redress or salts
faction. On no score can Japan Justify
breaking international treaties to secure
the observance of her questionable hi
lateral or unilateral pacts with the
Chinese. That is one precedent no
nation desires to have re-established.
While the powers and the League thus
| far have not consulted Russia in
dealing with the Sino-Japanese con-
troversy, they nevertheless agree with
Moscow's viewpoint that nothing Is to
be gained by rushing to meet the issue
| (1n Moscow's "Borah letters" which
was statement of policy appearing in
the official newspaper Isvestia, the argu-
ment was advanced that the time ele-
ment was against Japan and in Russia s
favor) 1t is pointed out that the Toxic
government can i'll afford at this time
OF economic depression and trade stag
nation the terrific expenditures involved
in protracted campaign in Manchuria
or China proper. Japan has not the
| ghost of show of shifting the burden
back to China by demanding indemnity
and reparations for losses incurred.
Rather shes is risking having to pay
them herself for the destruction wrought
at Shanghai. Furthermore, as her mill
tary penetration is extended In Man
churia her difficulties become greater.
According to the preliminary report of
the Leagues Commission of Inquiry
upon which an American, Gen. Frank
Mccoy. Is serving), the Japanese have
arrayed against them at this writing
Chang Hsueh-Liang, of which number
only 10000 are behind the Great Wall
The so-called bandit forces" are esti-
mated at 10000. One group OF $4,000
bandits" is cooperating with the
Chinese forces northeast Of Harbin.
Others. scattered about the three prov
inces, are engaging in desultory guer-
rilla fighting.
| 24.200 japanese Troops.
| The japanese, according to their
official admissions, now have 24,200
regular troops In Manchuria. (The Sino-
japanese treaty provides for less than
$4,000 as railway guards.) Japanese
officers are organizing the "Manchukuo
army" Of Emperor Pi-Yu, which is said
to number $4,000 men. In addition, the
japanese are In command of a police
force of 10000, of which 10000 are
considered as local guards. Thus the
count stands df the inquiry of the
League commission is reliable) at 308, 600
japanese Manchukuo troops against
230 900 Chinese regulars bandit forces
With Summer near at hand in Man.
churia and the heavily -forested regions
furnishing splendid cover for the irregu-
lars, a sanguinary guerilla warfare
through the next few months is GER
tain. The Chinese are rapidly replen-
ishing their depleted munition stocks
from Russian and other sources. Also,
as even the Japanese admit, the loyalty
Of the newly forged "Manchukuo army"
Is doubtful. These troops are liable to
side with their fellow countrymen at
the first opportunity, even as did Japan,s
former Manchurian puppet, the old Gen.
Chang Tso-Lin.
| Another significant fact Is that
Japan's reverent hope that the League
Assembly Will not concern itself with
Manchuria already Is doomed to un-
fulfillment Toxic has never withdrawn
| her Jur1dical reservations to the appli-
cation Of article Is, which the Chinese
invoked upon the occupation of Shang-
hal, to Manchuria. Japan's theory Is
that the League Council alone Is quail
fed to intervene in the Manchurian
affair and that it can do nothing until
the Lytton report has been drafted. In
effect, all that stands between Japan and
her designs in Manchuria is the recon-
mendations of the Councils agents.
The Assembly's Jurisdiction extends no
further than Shanghai, the Japanese
contend, and this problem Is well along
the road to settlement.
Japan's Problem Complicated.
The Lytton report, however. after
passing through the Councils hands will
| find its way to the Committee of 10.
| which, in turn, will submit it to the
plenary Assembly at its next session.
Instead Of the original IA Council mem
bers, Japan, as result of her Shanghai
blunder, now has the entire Leagues
states-and the United States to deal
with. The little nations bloc"-Nor-
way. Holland, Sweden, Switzerland,
Czechoslovakia, Ireland and the South
American countries-is proving an ex-
ceedingly troublesome thorn In Japan's
side.
Still another factor (and the Man
churian problem is replete with side
isSues) working against Japan is the
general resentment of more than a
score of countries which are genuinely
interested in disarmament Germany,
Great Britain, Italy and many of the
smaller states consider that Japan's un-
timely outburst of militarism has done
more than any other one thing to post
pone indefinitely the logical develop
ment of reduction and limitation of
armaments. Unless the principle of
right" supplants that of might" in
the Far East, the World Disarmament
Conference is certain to come to a bad
ending.
And since Europe does not want to
return to the old order Of things, 1t is
doubly imperative that Japan be check
mated In the Far East and that her
Manchurian adventure be satisfactorily
liquidated. even though it might easily
have been proved justifiable.
The cards appear to be stacked
AGAINST Japan, even though she may be
able to take a few more jackpots.
Whether she will break up the little
Geneva poker game If she begins to
lose heavily and start a free-for- all
fight Is one Of the questions which will
be answered In ths not far-distant
future.