Evening star., 1932-02-14
BY GEORGE VAN SLYKE.

NEW YORK, February 13.-Gov.
Franklin D. Roosevelt Of New York is
about to start a Nationwide drive to
get a majority of the delegates to the
Democratic National Convention before
the party meets in Chicago in June.
His campaign now enters q new phase
The opponents OF the leading candidate
likewise are starting their drive TO hold
one-third Of the delegates away from
Gov. Roosevelt.
The struggle for a majority on one
side and one-third on the other now
becomes the objective OF the rlVaI
camps and sizes up the political situa-
ton in the Democracy. The Democrats
are up to their old tricks.
Such is the result brought about IN
one week by the entry OF Alfred E.
Smith e. receptive candidate, deter
mined to assert his leadership OF the
party. One week has brought the
conviction to the party leaders that
Mr.. Smith cannot hope to be nom-
mated 1t is now question whether ne
can bring about combination which
will block Gov. Roosevelt. Months OF
fighting, which may ruin the party's
chances Of success, must be gone
through with before the answer can be
known.
The Roosevelt forces appear to have
withstood the first shock Of the Smith
attack without wavering. The Governor
has moved quickly to extend his opera
tions. His friends are forming a new
National Committee, with Homer Cum
Nings Of Connecticut in charge, to In
tenSify his campaign. His managers
insist they are pleased that Mr.. Smith
has come into the open.
Seeing their chances improved by the
prospect of a deadlocked convention
and a probability that a compromise
candidate may win, the many favorite
sons are tightening their hold on local
organizations.
The burden lies most heavily on the
coalition group. 1t becomes necessary
to pull favorite sons who represent
States naturally and intensely against
Mr.. Smith into a working combination
which will stick. 1t is an unnatural
alliance. The development OF the IA
vorite- son movement in the Southwest
weakens Gov. Roosevelt by cutting into
territory which naturally is his. Tenn
porarily it may help Mr.. Smith to exert
a veto. But having put Gov. Roose-
welt out there is big doubt as to how
long the unnatural combination OF Al
Smith and the Southwest could hold.
~
Mr.. Smith, therefore, has taken on a
double and most difficult task. He must
, not only defeat the leading candidate
of the party, a lifelong political as
sociate from his own State. but having
done that he must be able to name the
compromise candidate or dark horse.
1t is seen as a possibility that Mr..
Smith may be able to block Mr.. Roose-
welt if he can get together handful
of delegates of his own and then engl-
neers the combination with favor1te
sons. Even that may be doubtful. But
having accomplished that first objective,
Mr. Smith then must pick the nominee
or his leadership fails and he Is no
better off than when he started. Not
being able to get the nomination him
self. it is assumed that Mr.. Smith would
throw his support to Newton D. Baker,
Gov. Richie owen Young or Melvin
Traylor to make good his leadership.
Exactly at that point the Smith
movement runs the danger OF collapSlng.
If Gov. Roosevelt fails to get the nomi-
nation, he still may retain more than
one third of his block to exert the veto
power and it is inconceivable that he
and his followers would go to Mr.. Smith
or Mr.. Smiths selection.
u **
The advantage still lies with Gov:
Roosevelt, as his friends and most OF
the party leaders see it, now that Mr..
Smith has shown his hand. They say
that it is true that Mr. Smith was
strong enough to block William G. Nc
Adoo in the Madison Square Conven-
ton in 1924, when the Californian came
close to a majority. Now the situation
is quite different. The sections Whlch
were for McAdoo form the backbone OF
Mr.. Roosevelts support. But in addl-
ton he has real strength in the East
where McAdoo had little or none, ano
the fight is between the two leadlng
Democrats of New York, not between
the united wet East and the dry west
and South.
; The Democrats have been wearing
out pencils during the last week ngur-
ing up the probable strength OF Mr.
Smith, Gov. Roosevelt and the faVorlte
sons. It is surprising how so many
come close to the same conclusion.
The prevailing opinion In the East
is that AL Smith. by making a real ef-
fort either himself or through his sup
porters, may gather in about 100 dele
gates. He Is conceded votes from New
York, Massachusetts,, Connecticut. New
Jersey, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Rhode Island, Delaware and Louisiana
He has latent strength In Michigan, II
linois Wisconsin and possibly some In
Minnesota. His maximum Is counted
at about 1876 and his minimum around
1870.
Il X +
The favorite sons will take care Of
at least 272 delegates on the first ballot
according to the present lineup. The
States so tied up are Arkansas, Illinois
Maryland, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma
Texas and Virginia. New Jersey, with 80
and Nebraska, with 16, have been classec
as favorite sons, but the probability u
the former may 60 for Mr.. Smith with
out giving Gov. Moore . complimentary
,,ots and NAhraSka "a Gov Rockwell