Evening star., 1932-09-11
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

@HAT President Hoover's political
fortunes were affected adversely
by the depression and to a
Il great extent continue to bt
goes without saying. To be
convinced of this, If anybody needs
to be convinced of a thing so obvious
imagine that business during Mr.
Hoovers term had continued good;
imagine that business had gone along
evenly on. let us say, the level OF
1926. or 1927. or 1928. Upon that sup
position there would not be the faint
est doubt of the success Of the Re
publican ticket.
1t would not be worth while for the
Democrats to make a campaign. The
outcome would be predestined. and
would be about the average of the
Republican successes in years when
degree Of success as Mr.. Coolidge had
in 1924.
We can safely make another as
sumption. Assume that the American
stock market crash happened as it
did In 1929 Assume that crash to
have been the whole cause of de-
preston.
Blows From Europe.
From the consequences of that we
should have begun recovery, and ac-
tually did begin recovery in the Spring
of 1881. Had nothing further hap
pened, had not the new blows come
from abroad. we should be by now
well back into prosperity and there
would be. again no doubt of Mr..
Hoover's reelection.
What MIR. Hoover is suffering from
VtTho thn Ntrry fr
suffering from in business way is
the series Of blows from Europe which
began with the financial collapse in
Austria in the early part of 1881, fol-
lowed by the collapse in Germany in
June, July, 1881; followed and cli-
NAKED by the fall Of the British pound
in September, 1881, almost exactly a
year ago.
These blows from abroad came on
top Of our own stock market crash.
They were very much more severe than
our own crash. They had as direct an
effect upon us as If they had hap
pened here at home As Gov. Eugene
Meyer of the Federal Reserve System
put it in an informal talk to a group
OF business men the other day: There
were in the world in MAY, 1881. four
great financial powers. They were the
OAAtC0 ObdDCSb 1lCdU DtlIdlll,
and Germany
Two of them, Germany and Great
Britain, fell. MANY smaller financial
powers fell following the two great
ones. Instantly the world believed that
one or both of the other two great
financial powers, the United States and
France, must fall--particularly in the
sense of going off the gold standard
The world, believing that, fell into
panic. Like every panic. it fed upon
itself and grew. The effect upon the
United States took three principal direct
forms
The world, believing the United
States must go down, withdrew gold
from us at rate which, if kept up for
ten weeks, would have left us as broke"
as Germany or Great Britain. At this
point the reader will ask, Why did =
not go on for 10 weeks. what inteSS
Tupted it, what saved us?"
What saved us, what broke the run,
was chiefly-p-actically wholly-the
courage and steadfastness of President
Hoover, and of our Government and
our fiscal officials. They took precisely
that attitude which, when adopted by
wise officials of bank, stops run
by depositors Our Government said.
partly in words but mere in mental
attitude, Here is your gold, take it;
II you want more, ask for it."
Embargo Was Urged.
Our Government could have done
differently. We could readily have put
an embargo on shipments of gold
abroad. That course was urged upon
President Hoover. publicly and private
ly, by persons who lacked his courage
and sure-footed stability. Other ma
tions put embargoes on gold under
similar conditions. It was a justified
expedient; it involved no odium.