Evening star., 1932-06-26
TITANIC BATTLE
SEEN At CHICAGO
Smith and Roosevelt Held
Closely Matched for Con-
Vention.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
CHICAGO, June 25-This is titanic
battle. Let no one doubt that. BY a
week from today it will have more
dramatic quality than Schmeling and
Sharkey, and hardly short Of as much
Marine. If the reader is to follow it
intelligently, he should bear in mind
small number of fundamental figures
and facts.
The total number of delegates is l,154.
A majority is 578. The number neces-
sary to nominate the presidential can
didate is two-thirds, or ITO. The number
that can block presidential nomination
is one-third, or 385.
Remember next that the presidential
nomination is the only thing affected
by the two-thirds rule. Every other
action, the adoption of rules, the Ques-
ton of prohibition, the election of chair
men, and all that sort of thing, is
decided by simple majority vote. Aside
from the presidential nomination alone,
forget about the two-thirdS rule.
Bear in mind finally one peculiar
condition. The two-thirds rule itself
can be abolished by majority vote.
This fact is going to be vital. If Roose-
velt actually has a majority, and If 1t
is a dependable majority, which will do
anything needed in his interest, 1t can,
subject to a qualification about to be
stated, abolish the two-thirds rule and
nominate Roosevelt out of hand. This
latter statement, however, is subject to
qualification. A delegate may be a
Roosevelt delegate, sincerely loyal TO
Roosevelt and yet hesitate to abolish the
two-thirdS rule.
Held Safeguard in South.
The two-thirds rule has a hundred
years of sentiment, tradition behind 1t.
Some delegates who want Roosevelt to
be President might nevertheless balk at
the idea of voting to abolish the two
thirds rule. This is a delicate point
and will weigh much The South,
where many of Roosevelts delegates
come from, has long regarded the two
thirds rule as an indispensable safe
guard to them. 1t gives them the pow
er, with a one-third strength, to veto
and block a nominee who might, they
fear, interfere with the Southern DEM
ocratic election customs designed to
guarantee white dominance. A South
ern delegate might be sincerely loyal to
Roosevelt, but yet might hesitate to vote
to abolish the two-thirds rule in Roose-
velt's interest. They might fear to es-
tablish precedent.
The next fundamental question is, how
many delegates has Roosevelt? I have
said that he has a majority and I am.
confident he has at this stage more
than a majority. A majority would be
578. Even Smith partisans admit
Roosevelt has $40, which would be only
eight short Of majority. A majority,
however, is of no vital use to Roosevelt
except in the one respect of getting rid
of the two-thirds rule. As I have ex-
planned, Roosevelt might have a major
ity for the purpose Of his nomination
but not a majority for the purpose Of
changing the two-thirds rule.
Let us now examine what Bismarck
called the "inponderables." Here the
Smith faction has rather the better of
it. The ablest of the working politicians
are on Smiths side. The men who
most understand the psychology of a
convention floor and how to get results
out of it are on Smiths side. Smiths
floor manager is Frank Hague, the New
Jersey boss.
Knows Every Maneuver.
Frank Hague knows every maneuver
of the game Hague'S assistant floor
managers will include most though not
all of the old-time, hard-boiled, sea-
soned, salted veterans who have pulled
results out of conventions in 1928, 1924
and 1920 Smiths managers include
men who know how to manipulate the
psychology of delegates into doing
things they never intended.
Drocaualt,c HOpf. MANAGER iS Arthur
Mullen of Nebraska. Mullen is a strong
man with Just as much experience as
the Smith leaders. Mullen in past con-
ventions has been Smith leader. He
is an able, dependable person. Mullen,
however, is a lawyer of the sure-footed
type who likes to think before he acts.
That is a fine quality in nearly all sit
uations in life, but in the turmoil OF
convention floor calling for instan-
taneous decisions, Mullen's sure-footed
quality may be overcome by the quick
psychic lunches of the other type Of
| leader.
There is one other imponderable, the
relative weight of personality as be-
tween Smith and Roosevelt. In this
respect Smith has the better Of it.
Smith has one of the most dynamic,
forcefm and fortnight personalities
/ that has been on the American stage
/ in this generation. To express 1t in
| terms of physics, in a clash between
Smiths momentum and Roosevelt's in
ertia. or the other way round, Smith
should prevail There need be hardly
doubt that Smith is perfectly con-
/ fdent that wherever the personalities
clash, he will triumph. Between Smith
as the irresistible force and Roosevelt
as the immovable static, Smith should
ordinarily prevail
The Smith managers and partisans
one feels sure, look upon Roosevelt and
his partisans and managers as having
little the quality of Boy Scouts or
let us say, of the National Guard as