Evening star., 1932-05-15
SMITHS HOPES SLIGHT
FOR RULING CONVENTION
$50 Delegates Would Be Necessary to
Stop Chief Rival, and Bandwagon
Instinct Is Against Him.


That sort OF flnesse is. Of course, part
OF the familiar art Of politics It Is part
OF the art Of getting any crowd Of men
II. room (like LISA delegates In q
convention halD TO produce any de-
sired result. Many a convention can be
Leo (within limits). and has been led, to
nominate man 1t had no intention Of
nominating. Any such gathering, DO
lftical or parliamentary. a club meeting
or sewing-bee, often elects officers
| or passes resolutions, or takes other
forms of action which in the beginning
majority would have opposed.
incidentally most Of those Demo-
cratic leaders who are mcst expert and
experienced in the art Of brins.ng a
planned result out Of convention, are
opposed to Roosevelt. Many Of Roose-
velts leaders, upon whom he viii de-
pend In the convention, belong in the
category which the others call "fair-
haired boys"
Can Smith prevent the nomination Of
Roosevelt? Smith will 60 to the con-
vention with roughly 100 delegates Of
his own: All Of Massachusetts,, all Of
New Jersey, something like third Of
Pennsylvania, and a. few others scat
tered. Smith may have in addition the
"a from New York; what New York Is
going to do as between Smith and
Roosevelt Is one of the principal mys-
teries Of the situation. The decision
for the whole State rests in large part
on the decision of Tammany. Tam
many as machine has no great af-
fection for Smith. But the mass Of
Democratic voters in New York City
think highly OF him. It may be that
Tanlmany would think carefully about
refusing to line up with Smith In any
event no one knows yet where the "a
| New York delegates will be
But concede the "a from New York
10 Smith, concede that he enters the
convention with roughly 200 delegates
under his personal command (out Of q
total Of 1,154).
The bare minimum that, theoreti-
cally, Smith needs to stop Roosevelt Is
385, the eaxct third and q fraction OF
the convention. But of course, an ex-
act third is not enough. II the exact
third were absolutely under Smiths
domination in military sense they
would be sufficient. But In politics one
must count on the inponderables. A
principal imponderable Is the band
wagon instinct which leads delegates,
many OF whom hope to hold ofice, to
hurry toward a probable winner, or at
least to be cautious about taking an
attitude OF implacahle last-ditch resist
ance to a probable winner
Smith, to stop Roosevelt, must have
more than 385. How much more Is q
guess, depending on the spirit Of the
delegates and many other factors. Il
Is impossible to say exactly the num-
Der Smith must have, but Il Is reason
able to estimate he can hardly count
confidently on beating Roosevelt unless
ne has somewhere between $50 and 500
delegates.
From where is Smith to assemble
this army? He has, we may assume,
giving him the benefit Of some doubts,
roughly 200 Of his own. Where Is he
to get the at least $50 more to stand
with him IN opposition to Roosevelt?
Mainly he must search among these
delegates committed to candidates other
than Roosevelt, chiefly the fayorite
sons. These, speaking roughly, with the
delegates they have, are: $50
Speaker Garner Of Texas. s....0 30
Senator James Hamilton Lewis Of
LIMOS ..........-..-..... ..oS
Ex-senator James A. Reed Of Mis-
soun ....................
Gov. William H. Murray Of Okla
Gov % George white Of Ohio ....55
Ex-Gov: Harry F. Byrd Of virginia. "a
Gov. Albert c. Ritchie of Maryland. .l6
and some scattering -
How many Of these 2ss will help
Smith stop Roosevelt?
Would-Be Benefciaries.
They will all help him to the extent,
and Just as far, as they share with
Smith the wish to stop Roosevelt,
though for different reason. They will
help Smith stop Roosevelt so far as
they have real hope Of being. some one
of them. the beneficiary Of stopping
Roosevelt: Of becoming, some one of
them, the nominee himself. That Is
the only common denomination among
the candidates other than Roosevelt;
that is the only tie of the favorite sons
to Smith, their only motive for follow
ing Smiths leadership in an effort ~
stop Roosevelt.
II this tie be axamined carefully 1t
turns out to be pretty fragile. Not all
these favorite sons-indeed, very few
Of them-haye any real hope OF the
nomination. And as to those that
have. hopes, some viii learn early In
the convention that the hopes are vain.
At that point the reason for standing
with Smith to oppose Roosevelt ceases
to exist. Indeed, there arises the con-
trary motive, the wish to add them
selves to the forces Of Roosevelt as q
probably winner.
Among the candidates other than
Roosevelt, probably only three and
maybe less have any real hope Of get
ting the nomination themselves. (f.
| is an anomaly of this Cor. gsltion that
the likely outcome of it, If it Is to be
somebody other than Roosevelt, may
be q man not having any delegates
himseh-some such man rs Newton D.
Baker, or possibly Owen D. Young, or
ex-Gov. Cox of Ohio. or Banker Mel
vim A. Traylor Of ulinois.)
Among those candidates other than
Roosevelt who viii have delegations In
the convention, perhaps three-Gov.
Ritchie, Speaker Garner and, family,
| ex-Gov. Byrd-may entertain real hopes
for themselves. Therefore presumably
they would be willing to help Smith
stop Roosevelt.
Favorite Son Hopes Slight.
But at least three and probably four
of the favorite sons can have no pos
sible expectation of getting the nomi-
nation. For different motives or vary
ing reasons they win hold the delegates
credited to them for q few early bal
lots. But they can hardly hope that
any fantastic outcome would give the
prize to them. 1t is not conceivable
that ex-senator Reed, with his 50 from
Missouri can be the nominee, nor Gov.
Murray of Oklahoma with his az, nor
Senator Lewis Of Illinois with his. So.
Conceivably. Gov. White Of Ohio may
have faint expectation, though more
probably his real hope would be to
grasp the vice presidential nomination
out Of the whirl 81 events.
All this Is enough 10 show that Smith
will have no small difficulty In getting
and holding the roughly $50 delegates
he must have to stop Roosevelt. He
nar har1lax do -