Evening star., 1932-06-19
DEMOCRATIC SELECTION
TO BE MADE THIS WEEK
The Question, @Can Gov. Roosevelt Be
Defeated?" Will Be Answered Before
Convention Is Opened.
BY MARK SULLIVAN,

TINE Democratic presidential nom
ination will be decided thi
week. I am aware the conven
i tion does not meet till the wee
following. Nevertheless, by Sat
urday night, or before, the question
will be answered. The question il
stated in terms Of the opposition +
welt be defeated?" If the leaders o
Roosevelt, then Roosevelt will be name,
on the first ballot when the conventio,
meets, or certainly not later than tn
second. But if the leaders of the op
position find they can stop Roosevelt
then, of course, they will. The stop
ping, in that case. will consume fiv
or six ballots. Thereafter the conven
ton will name another candidate
1t will not be Smith. Smith will b,
used up in the process of stoppin.
Roosevelt. In the remaining field. b,
far the most probable nominee is New
ton D. Baker of Ohio. The mere sug.
gesting OF this now may be a dis.
service to Bakers chances. In thu
process of stopping Roosevelt high feel.
ing will boil up. 1t already has. Or
the part of Roosevelt and his managers
their anger will be directed, of course
against Smith. They will hate Smith
They already do. Their hate against
Smith will extend to any one known
to be favored by Smith. If the Roose-
velt delegates should get the idea that
Smiths present moves are directed
toward nominating Baker, they will
never let Baker win.
After all, it is certain that at the
least Roosevelt. even if himself de-
ho yrn rnt0 s., H.
convention. Roosevelt admittedly has
close to half the delegates Trim away
the fringeS Of the wavering or the un-
stable or the seducible and Roosevelt
will still have full third of the dele
gates completely loyal to him. That
third can, under the Democratic rule
prevent the nomination of any one who
Is now, or becomes, objectionable to
Roosevelt.
Give Us Al Smith,"
No one can say that Smith has ii
in mind to swing the nomination to
Baker. He may not have that inten-
tion at all. But it is pretty plain that
some OF the forces cooperating with
Smith have that intention. Ten days
ago the Scripps-Howard chain OF Is
newspapers came out in an editorial
Of the type called ringing, Give Us Al
SMITH" Now, Mr. Scripps and Mr.
Howard must know very well that they
can't have Smith, for Smith can be
vetoed by Roosevelt much more Curely
than Roosevelt can be vetoed by Smith
Add to this the fact-Well known 10
those on the backstage Of politic5-that
the real favorite Of the Scripps-Ho
ard newspapers is Baker, and we have
reasonable evidence that Baker IS the
objective Of an important part, at least,
of the forces opposing Roosevelt.
But the probability of Baker getting
the nomination does not rest on his
being favored by the Smith forces. OF
any part CT them. The whole setting
points toward Baker being the dark
horse in a true sense and the best
sense. Baker is really the most avail
able man in the f1=ld. Baker is an
ab'er man than Roosevelt. Onitting
re-ative ability, emitting relative weight
Of personality. Baker is today, in an
aI-round sense, the most available
man.
There was, up to little while ago.
one factor that made Roosevelt NOR
available. Roosevelt. it was thought,
could surely carry New York State in
the November election: and ability to
carry the biggest State is under all
conditions a superior qualification O.
availability in the purely political sense.
But now Roosevelt seems to have
lost that qualification. Due 10 the
mess about Mayer Walker and Tam
many, Roosevelt has no reason to be
confident he can carry New York
Whatever Roosevelt does about Mayor
Walker, he will be damned by some il
he does and damned by others if he
doesn't. and in either case has lost
much Of the availability he seemed to
have some months ago. The Roosevelt
managers themselves know it is nov
doubtful whether Roosevelt can carry
New York, and are taking about
Roosevelt carrying the country by
carrying the West and South, withou;
New York.
So long as it seemed certain Roosevelt
could carry New York or more certain
than any Of the other aspirants, 81
long was Roosevelt practically sure Il
be the nominee. The delegates in that
convention want victory more than they
want any one candidate-and capacit!
to carry New York is almost guaran
tee Of victory. Roosevelt may still b'
nominated. Roosevelt is indeed by ia
the best bet. But he is little les
certain to be nominated than he wa
before Mr.. Seabury laid the Mayo
Walker scandal on his doorstep-a
the most embarrassing possible time.
Parenthetically, has it ever occurred
to any Democratic leader to injec
Seabury into that convention as darl
horse? Suppose somebody should max
Just the right kind of speech abou
that able, patient and dogged expose
Of Tammany. and make it at just tn
right time How would the convention
take it? And how would the countr.
take it?
Smith and Roosevelt.
Ex-Gov. Smith has announced tina
he is going to be in Chicago on Tues
day, six days ahead Of the time whei
the convention meets on June q
That announcement Is a sign of tw,
means that he does not want or ex
pect the nomination himself. Men whit
expect to get the prize do not attent
national conventions. Smith did no
60 to the convention at Houston il
1923, when he expected the nomination
and got it. John w. Davis was not il
the convention that nominated him il
1924, nor James M. Cox in the on,
that nominated him in 1920; no
Woodrow Wilson in either Of the con
ventions that nominated him in 1911
and 1912.
To be sure, there Is no universal rul
about this. Men who sit in the con
vention as delegates are sometime
nominated. but those exceptions ar
likely to be cases like that of William
Jennings Bryan. And somehow on
does not think Of Smith getting thi
nomination through some dramati
effort of personality. such as Bryan
Gross Of Gold" speech in 1896. Smitl
has the power of asserting dynami
dominance over crowd and intend
to do so in this convention. Not, how
ever, for the purpose of getting tn
nomination for himself. but rather fo
the purpose of keeping it away fror
Franklin Roosevelt.
That is the real purpose Of Smith
going to Chicago six days in advanc
of the convention. He has another OBJ
ject as well. the purpose Of having tn
convention adopt the precise kind c
plank about prohibition that Smit