Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1932-11-12
EFFECT OF SHIFT
|NVOTESANALYZED
Change of $50, 900 Would
Ii Have Given Hoover
Second Term.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

-Four years ago change Of 100000
votes out of a total Of $4,000, 900 would
have elected Alfred e. Smith.
This year a change of $50, 900 out
of 100000 would have elected Her
bert Hoover.
A change of only 10000 votes would
have given Mr.. Roosevelt the unani-
nous vote of the Electoral College,
namely. 531 votes
Four years ago Mr.. Smith received
the highest total ever received by any
candidate of either party except one,
namely, the victor In the 1928 con-
test, and this time Mr.. Hoover re-
ceived more than 40 per cent Of the
total vote, yet his electoral total is
the smallest any Republican candidate
has received in any year since the
Civil War with the exception of 1912.
The results In electoral voting
which might have been brought about
by change In $50 900 votes distributed
in certain States shows how a minority
popular vote could defeat the will of
the people in presidential election.
As for electoral votes, too. the change
of only $4,000 votes would have given
Mr.. Hoover no electoral votes at all,
notwithstanding the fact that about
100000 people voted for him this
year. The changes, Of course, would
have had to occur In the six States
which Mr.. Hoover carried. When the
Republican majorities by which these
six States are normally carried are
noted it will be seen how closely Mr..
Roosevelt came to winning a unanimous
electoral vote.
Tammany's Part Small.
A. f. e
177,000 would have carried Wyoming,
Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kan
Sas, Massachusetts,, Michigan, Mime
sofa, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Ore
gon, Rhode Island, West Virginia,
total of is States with an electoral
vote Of 100, which, together with the
SO won by Mr. Hoover, would have
made total Of PIG, and then by
change Of 100000 In New York State
the added Al would have been obtained
to win 266, which is the majority
necessary to elect.
Had the courts decreed that New
York City could not have O mayoralty
election this year, the disaffected
Walker vote might have made differ
ence Of 100000 in the metropolis. AS
1t was, Tammany had a candidate for
mayor on whom it had to concentrate
all its energies to win. Mayor-elect
O'Brien ran 100000 behind the Roose-
welt ticket, which indicates clearly that
the Tammany people knew they had a
Job on their hands ahead of time when
they pledged all their voting power to
Roosevelt. They guaranteed total of
100000 for Roosevelt in New York City
to Offset the upstate majority. Actu-
ally it did not reach that figure but
came within 100000 Of the mark. So
Tammany's part in carrying New York
State is something for which the Presi-
'dent,elect viii not need to express ap-
probation, since he could have won
without New York State But In close
election and a shift Of $4,000 elsewhere
in the Nation. Tammany would have
had the privilege Of electing President.
How European System Works.
These are the idioSyncrasies of an
electoral voting system as distinguished
from a popular vote. In European
denocracies, anybody who polls 40 per
cent of the popular vote has q voice
In the formation of q ministry and the
execution Of government policies. In
America there is no minority voice in
the executive branch of the Govern
inent except through the wish of q
President-elect who may select some one
for his cabinet from the opposite party.
Analysing the changes In electoral
votes that would have been possible
through an arbitrary shifting of the
popular vote, it will be noted that $4,000
votes would have shifted Ohio's 26 votes
to the Hoover column, that $4,000 votes
would have changed New Jerseys 16
electoral votes and that $4,000 would
have given the IL votes of Massachu-
sets to Hoover: This accounts N part
for the perplexity last week of some Of
the people in those States in eStimat-
ing the outcome and in some respects
it indicates how much the Hoover tide
in October, had it been started in Sep
TENDER, might have given Mr.. Hoover
q far more satisfactory showing in the
electoral college.
(Copyright, 1922