Evening star., 1932-05-08
BY GEORGE VAN SLYKE.

NEW YORK, May president
Hoover and his party have gained
ground in about the ratio that Gov.
Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Demo-
Gratis have lost in the turbulent political
scramble of the last week in Washing
ton and in the State primary contests.
The presidential campaign has reached
stage where developments on both
sides can be gauged In respect to the
Autumn election and not entirely in
terms of convention politics.
On the Republican side, the Presi-
dents remarkable vote of confidence In
the California primary, exceeding that
of 1929, has heartened his party leaders
and removed any lingering danger that
he might not carry his home State in
November. His vote SO far outnumbered
the Democratic total in rather ad-
verse situation as to give proof that
California Is not likely to repeat its
performance of 1916, when the State
was in doubt for three days and finally
defeated ChaPies e, Hughes for the
presidency. There was no apparent
drift away from the Republican party
as has been evident, and alarming to
the leaders, in other States.
Mr. Hoover's sharp letter to Congress
ON Friday had a ring of real authority
and was an expression of leadership
which stirred the country more than
has any other message from his pen In
many months. 1t caught the imagina-
ton of the people at this moment be-
cause 1t expressed an almost universal
disapproval and fear of the amazing
conduct of Congress,
Leadership is at such high premium
in these days Of muddled thinking and
confused action in politics that any
voice which speaks with strength and
shows determination is welcome to the
bewildered people, who are at loss to
explain the shortcomings of their
Representatives In Washington.
Concrete evidence Of shift of senti-
ment favorable to the President one
month prior to the National Convention
is seen In tightening of odds ON his
election In the betting fraternity. Wall
Street houses which make early books
on the November outcome are quoting
odds of eight to five that Hoover will
be reelected, and that for the first
time in the last two or three days.
The Presidents leading rival, Gov,
Roosevelt of New York, has had another
bad week on top of two preceding un-
comfortable weeks, and his big band
wagon, which has rumbled along
mefrily for almost a year without
encountering serious obstacles, is de-
veloping serious engine trouble. 1t has
stalled several times Of late. Some new
meehanicians may be needed to start
1t rolling again.
The next definite move in the Demo-
cratic battle will be in the numerous
primaries in the next two weeks, where
another concerted attempt Is being
made by the Governors political foes
to enforce the RaskOb-Sheuse plan OF
sending uninstTucted delegations To
the convention.
Oregon, Tennessee, West Virginia
and Colorado are expected to instruct
for the Governor, as planned, but In
other States there Is disposition to
hold off while awaiting developments
The result may be that some halt
dozen States which were about ready
to JOIN the Roosevelt parade may not
instruct Fortunately for Roosevelt
the time has passed for filing in State
primaries. Had Al Smith and Speaker
Garner foreseen recent developments
they might have contested several
States and made much more trouble
4 4 y
In spite of his recent reVerSes how
ever, Roosevelt still holds such a COM
manding lead that it will take every
Vete his opponents can muster TO pre-
vent his passing the half way mark In
the first ballot in the convention. He
now has under instruction SIS votes
eonceding him only half the Pennsyl-
vania delegation of 76. His friends
there still claim CO. Another hundred
delegates are almost certain TO bt
gathered in the next two weeks, and
New York is still noncommital. The
| Governors friends claim q minimum
OF So In his own State, which the,
say they can hold even in deadl,
battle with Tammany. The claim
seems fairly well justified.
But the great damage done Roosevelt
In his defeats IN Massachusetts ano
California and in the stalemate ir
: Pennsylvania and Connecticut is thai
I he has failed TO demonstrate that he
can carry the big States, which the
Democracy must have to win the presi-
/ dency, He is strong in the South
/ which Is surely Democratic, and in the
sparse Northwest, where electoral vote:
are few, But in the populous States
| especially the debatable States, like
Massachusetts, and its neighbors, ane
the Middle West, he has not made ar
| impressive record. The damage done
by the bitter factional fight in Massa.
i chusetts probably makes IT impossible
for Roosevelt TO carry that State Il
nominated.
4 u
The idea is now dawning in soms
! sections of the country that the Demo.
Gratis can get rid of Al Smith without
| taking Roozevslt and perhaps have g
better chance of winning than with
| either.
One of the tremendous forces bael
Of the Roosevelt candidacy has beer
| the almost unanimous determination
of the West and South, shared in les.
ser cegree in some quarters in ths
Middle West and East, that the party
must get rid Of Smith at all costs this
J year If there Is to be even q chance o.
winning. States have been voting fol
Roosevelt IN a negative sort Of way
having nicked annfher New Yorker tc