Evening star., 1932-02-07
BY GEORGE VAN SLYKE.


NEW YORK, February 6-Now that
Alfred E. Smith, standard bearer in
1928 is about to emerge from his long
silence and declare his position in re-
Spect to his own and other candidates.
for the nomination for President, the
situation in the Democratic party will
be clarified in the next few days and
the conditions Of the pre-cOnventlon
contest much simplitied and improved.
He will tell the party in a statement
on Monday just what he is going to do.
Every effort made in the last six
months to force Mr.. Smith into the
open has failed. but the accumulative
result is TO make it necessary to tell
his friends in New England States
whether 0: not they are free to enter
him in their primaries and go forth
to battle for him. For months Mr..
Smith has been under cover and un-
certainty as to his plans has been
big obstacle in the way of Gov. Frank
lin D Roosevelt and other candidates.
The opposition to Gov. Roosevelt, the
leader in the race, has been looking to
Mr.. Smith to bring about a coalition OF
favorite-son States and the wet East
ern wing of the party as one-third
veto power to stop Mr.. Roosevelt. Ii
the former Governor assumes that dlf-
ficult task and announces he will make
an aggressive fight to head off his sue
cessor at Albany. it will be great sur
prise to the Democracy in the East.
Democratic leaders in the Atlantic
Coast States who have been urging Mr..
Smith to step out in front may be due
for a big disappointment. While his
Forthcoming statement is being care
fully safeguarded his associates and
friends who know his mind do not ex-
pect him TO essay the role OF anti
Roosevelt leader More likely, he will
take a hands-off position, declaring
neutrality on all candidates. and tech
nically remaining in the race himself,
although not battling for delegates. He
will leave his case in the hands OF his
friends and not antagonize any candl-
date, in all probability.
Managers of Gov. Roosevelts cam
paign will welcome Mr.. Smiths decla-
ration, whatever it may be, preferrng
even open hostility to continued uncer-
tainty If it means a fight, the Roose-
welt people are ready for it.
The latest canvass of States and
herents shows that the New York ex-
ecutive has greater strength in the
second-line reserves than has been
credited to him by either friend or foe.
Instead of waiting for a coalition to
form, the Roosevelt managers are TAX
ing the initiative in breaking down the
fusion movement arrayed against him,
and the success of that has given
fresh inspiration to his friends in nu-
merouS States.
The opposition to Gov. Roosevelt has
been proceeding on the theory that all
forces not lined up for him could be
relied upon to fuse into a unit which
would hold together long enough to
bring about a deadlock in the conven-
ton, eliminating the New York man
and forcing compromise.
Without waiting for further develop
ments, the Roosevelt managers have
attacked that problem vigorously. The
claim now is made that the Governor
has more delegates ready to swing to
him from the favorite-son States than
his opponents can control. He is sec
ond choice in several of the State dele
cations now tied up to favorite sons. 1t
is claimed, and in the event Of break
after the first ballot the drift would be
heavier to him than to any other can
didate.
Gov. Roosevelt's surprising reserve
strength among the So-called allied
forces has come into evidence several
times in the developments OF the last
few days. His rejection of the League
of Nations, his stand for America t1rSt
and his tariff position, as outlined III
his first national speech, have helped
him along while his enemies have been
waiting for Mr. Smith to do something
Now the attitude of the Roosevelt
boomers is that it does not make much
difference what Mr. Smith and the
favorite sons do as long as 1t is IN
the open, so that the challenge to his
candidacy may be met and dealt with.
The supreme confidence shown by the
Roosevelt managers is not shaken by
evidently.
Political claims in the early stages
of a campaign always are extravagant.
That is the way the politicians show
confidence. The Roosevelt men now
boast they have 675 delegates in the
bag. That. of course, cannot possibly
be correct, because only dozen or so
delegates have been picked and in
WIldU tlley Hledll 40 O. Soaii'
of delegates of all the States whose
leaders are in touch with him and his
and who have indicated their
preference for him. Many things
might happen between now and the
meeting of the convention in June to
upset that reckoning.
However, impartial estimates made
on the basis of commitments and dec
larations of preference do show that
at this time Gov Roosevelt has little.
more than 500 potential votes In sight.
The actual count now puts the figure
at $40, and that is a tremendous lead
lead enough that it should suffice with
out making wild claims.
X
The new angle in this reckoning,
which comes as surprise and shock
to the anti-Roosevelt forces, and which
seems to be fairly well substantiated,
is that more than 100 delegates, who
are tagged as members of the opposi-
finp are favarite-snn S1lpporterS who