Evening star., 1932-09-12
RESULTS IN MAINE
MAY SHOW TREND
Large G. O. P. Vote Will
Cheer Hopes for Repub-
Iicans Over Nation.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

Outside the State, interest Is felt In
the Maine election today as a barometer
of the rest of the country. II "barom-
eter" be understood as meant in a
very loose sense. the Maine figures will
have some rough value. There Is how
ever, no exact or near-eXact ratio be-
tween the vote in the September elec-
ton in Maine and the vote in the No.
yember election in the Nation.
Literally thousands Of persons. in
Guiding college teachers and expert
statisticians, sometimes using intricate
albebraic calculations, have tried to
construct formula by which the
Maine results can be used as yard
stick for the national results two
months later. The notion has an al
lurement as fascinating as the search
for perpetual motion. No mathema-
tician. however, has ever found a
formula for the Maine result which
some other mathematician could not
diSprove.
One of the recent collegiate invest1-
gators who delved deep into Maine cleo
toral statistics, Claude E. Robinson OF
Columbia University, concluded that
The Maine early election is not SEN
sitive indicator of political trends In
the Nation and offers no practical fore
casting nelp. Inc september
returns from Maine cannot be seriously
regarded as an omen Of the national
election outcome"
Important Effect Due.
Nevertheless, Maine is, and this year
will be, a barometer. If we omit any
attempt to use exact figures and be
content with loose words we can say
that If the result in Maine this year
shows a very strong tide within that
State toward the Democrats, it will be
reasonable to guess that in November
there will be strong tide toward the
Democrats throughout the Nation Cor
respondingly, If the Republicans carry
Maine by anything near a normal or
average majority, it will be reasonable
to expect the Republicans to win a very
decisive victory in the Nation in No
vember. Validity OF the omen is in
creased by the extraordinary psyche
logical effect. If the Maine result can
be interpreted as cheering to the Dem
ocratS, the morale of Democratic work.
ers everywhere will be Stiffened greatly
The question is, What is an average
Republican victory in Maine? In past
Maine elections corresponding to to-
days the Republicans have had a ma
jority of 82,94O in 1923, of 36,655 in
1924 and Of 65.ll6 in 1920. In all these
years the Republicans in the Nation
won the presidential elections over
whelmingly. These past Republican
majorities on the average could be cut
in two today. or even in three and still
the Republicans could expect to win the
November election.
Another guide would be the Maine
election in 1916 In that year the Re-
Yt11t in, Ha;,
and the Democrats in the Nation under
Wilson won the presidential election by
bare majority, which they only ac-
quired by the accident of carrying Cali
fornia
Without going into further complexi-
ties and taking all conditions loosely
into account, it may be said that if the
Republican majority in Maine is up
ward of $4,000 to $4,000, the RepubIe-
ans can expect to carry the country in
November quite comfortably If the
Republican majority should be between
10000 and $4,000, the Republicans
might still expect to win the presiden-
tial election. If, however, the Repub-
lican majority in Maine is less than
10000 the Democrats in the Nation will
assuredly feel that the presidential
campaign is running favorably to them.
Would Cheer Democrats.
Hardly anybody expects the Demo-
Gratis actually to win Maine. If that
should happen, the Republicans in the
Nation would be obliged to take SORROW
full notice indeed. All this is very loose
and rule of thumb. All that can be
said certainly is that II the Republican
ma ajority in Maine today should be
sensationally low, the Democrats in the
| Nation will be very greatly cheered
The psychological encouragement to
one party or the other is about as con-
crete as any other deduction from the
Maine election
There has been already this year one
set of figures from which any deduction
can be made Those were the figures
Of registration and of the primary cleo
ton in California. In the California
l ,497 ,432 to the Democrats 1.027 ,657.
That is almost ratio of to 2 in favor
of the Republicans. Then in the
primaries last month the Republicans
cast. roughly. 853 900 votes to the Demo-
Gratis roughly 497,000 This is even
larger than a 3-to-2 ratio in favor of
the Republicans. Both sets of figures
| point with great force to the deduction
that conditions in California are normal
and that Mr.. Hoover should carry Cali
| fornia in November by a normal ma
| jority So far as there is anything in
signs. if California was normal last
month Maine should be normal to-
day. and the country should be normal
in November. Normal means Re-
publican victory, for the Republicans
have won IA out of the 18 presidential
elections that have been held since 1860.
Dog Eats Rock Garden.
Brad a Boston terrier. after being