Evening star., 1932-11-06
BY WILLIAM HARD.

n.
paien draws to its close with the
claims department." of the two great
parties operating as follows:
The Republican Chalmers profess con-
fidence that Mr.. Hoover will carry the
electoral college by a margin.
The Democratic chalmers express con-
viction that Mr. Roosevelt Will carry
Just about the whole of the electoral
college
The Democratic calculating experts
base their views very largely on mathe-
matical interpretations and extensions
Of the figures of the two great Nation
wide polls and of the figures also OF
scores of local polls" They addl-
tionally have accumulated vast num-
bers Of special statistical reports from
their State chairmen, county chalrmen
and district and precind chalrmen. IN
their headquarters in New Iork Clty
they maintain an elaborate statistical
section" From that section their ma
tional chairman, Mr.. James Farley, de-
riyes the inspiration which subsequently
leads him to declare so frequently that
he comedies no State in the Union 10
Mr. Hoover"
Studies Of the sort performed by the
Democratic party's statistical sectlon
do indeed seem to provide the party
With broad grounds for optimism. It Is
to be noted, however, that the polls
and straw votes" thus carelulIy
analyzed by the Democrats are loaoeo
heavily with ballots cast In August ana
September and the first part OF OCTOBER;
The extreme Democratic expectation OF
a Roosevelt majority rising 70 posslols
10 million or even IL million rests very
considerably on the idea that on NO
vember 8 the voters. on the whole, VIII
exr,ress substantially the views Whlch
they entertained several weeks ago
That idea of an established freezing
of views is vigorously combated by the
Republicans. They contend that during
the last two months, and especially dur
ing the last three weeks, there has oeen
big "thaw' toward Hoover. Inc
democrats admit that at certain points
in the country-Ohio, for instance, ana
Illinois Of such a "thaW
are to be discerned. They call It a
small matter. The Republicans call II
a decisive matter. They consider 1t sum.
cient to give Mr.. Hoover marginal
victory.
The Republican Eastern headquarters
is counting upon the Al electoral Votes
of the six New England States OF
Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont. Mas
sachusetts, Rhode Island and Connectl-
cut. and it is also counting upon the
l02 electoral votes Of the. four NORTH
Central Atlantic States of New YORK,
New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsyl-
yania. This general region-from Port
land, Me, to Pittsburgh, Pas tne
area in which the Republican high
command has its brightest hopes OF
achieving a sort of sweep.
It realizes that without such
sweep" from the Atlantic to the Ale
ghany and Monongahela it can hardly
hope to carry the country. The Repuo-
lican campaign arguments are oelng
concentrated into a fervent proclama-
ton of the danger of change. IN
moment of crisis. The change" par
denounced as dangerous Is
change in the tariff. Any change on
that point is terrifying to Eastern sea-
board protected" industries. western
liz dustries have the protection OF the
tariff, plus the protection OF hlgn rail-
road rates on commodity shipments
from the seaboard to the interior. East
ern industries have only the protection
Of the tariff, hence the Republican tariff
argument on industrial goods-and. in
deed also on agricultural products
comes to its highest efficiency in sea-
board States.
The Republicans accordingly are far
more confident from Portland to Pitts
burgh than they are from Pittsburgh to
Salt Lake City. and they accept the
proposition that, unless they march
from Portland to Pittsburgh with an
accumulation of virtually all OF the 143
electoral votes encountered along that
route, they are extremely unlikely to be
able to arrive in the electoral college
of the Nation with a chance of trl-
umph.
Hence the supreme Importance OF the
recent activities of Alfred Emanuel
Smith. Hence also the almost equal
Importance of the recent speech for
Roosevelt by Owen D. Young. Mr..
Smith, a Catholic, told Catholics to
cease from resentments on his behalf
and to cast their votes magnanimously
for the present Democratic candidate.
Mr.. Young, large manufacturer, told
manufacturers and other business men
not to fear change" and more espe-
cially not to fear it in the matter OF
the tariff. Mr.. Smiths and Mr.. Youngs
utterances are believed by the Demo-
Gratis to have been influential in the
highest degree.
X X X
It is observed by the Republicans, on
the other hand, that Mr.. Smith and
Mr.. Young have their largest power in
the Atlantic East. 1t is, indeed, claimed
by the Republicans that in the West
there is widespread alienation of senti-
ment from both Mr.. Smith and Mr.
Young. Many dry Westerners, they
claim, regard Mr.. Smith as the chief
champion of alcohol and are inclined
to vote against any candidate whom he
conspicuously favors. Mr.. Young, they
claim, Is simultaneously regarded by
many Westerners Of progressive" and
radical tendencies as being the CEN