Evening star., 1932-04-24
TUESDAY VOTES MAYPROVE
CRUCIAL FOR ROOSEVELT
Results in Bay State and Pennsylvania
Likely to Bring Party Leaders
to Final Decision.

| men, the county committee subchair-
men and precinct works, by far the
great majority are for Roosevelt. They
were lined uD for Roosevelt months ago.
Roosevelt was the only candidate who
| had Nationwide organization. He Is
really the only one who has any or
ganization to speak of. Roosevelt's
workers lined up these local leaders
who were willing, chiefly because RooSe-
velt was the only aggressive candidate
! in sight. All that the local leaders
wanted then and want now is any ac-
ceptable candidate. They felt and still
feel sure the Democrats can win with
any acceptable candidate, and Roose-
velt looked acceptable enough. When
Smith first came out against Roose-
velt, that had the effect of strengthen
ing the local leaders behind Roosevelt.
The local leaders dreaded a fight and
cleavage in the party, and Smiths
entry looked like cleavage. The local
| leaders, desiring unity fearing cleavage
as the only thing that could they
| thought, defeat the party in November,
| closed ranks to make Roosevelt so
| clearly the leader that there could be
no rift. That is what has been helping
Roosevelt greatly so far.
Jobs Need Is Factor.
For the first time in 40 years Gov
eminent jobs are really desirable. In
all the intervening time jobs in private
| industry have been better paid and no.
body has been disposed to exert himself
| to get a Government post. Now, how
ever. is another period like the 80s of
the last century, in which the spoils
Of victory mean something real to the
party worker, to the man to whom
party victory may bring a post office
or similar job.
The local leaders, then, are for VIC
tory first. They are for Roosevelt sec
ond and only so long as Roosevelt
promises party victory. Let those little
precinct workers and county subchair-
men get it into their minds that the
nomination of Roosevelt might mean
party cleavage or might not hold out
the certainty OF party victory, and they
will leave Roosevelt. They are not tied
to Roosevelt by any great loyalty.
Roosevelt has not stirred their mag
nations 1t Is wholly q case of picking
man who Is sure to win.
These local leaders will as a rule
compose the body of delegates to the
! convention. Let them learn that the
cleavage between Roosevelt and Smith
is such as to endanger Roosevelt in
the campaign; let them learn that for
| ally 1CdSOu rSOOceNelG nOL the SureSI
way to victory, and they will turn. with
complete cheerfulness to another can
didate. If Smith and the other major
leaders OF the party should convince
| these local leaderS<that there are real
handicaps to Roosevelt's candidacy, in
that event the local leaders will cheer
fully subscribe to a policy of nominat-
ing whoever is most free from handi-
caps and offers the best chance of
| victory.
Should the major party leaders 60 on
with their determination to turn the
nomination away from Roosevelt, and
should they succeed, whom then will
they take up as a preferred candidate?
At that moment it is pretty certain
that very early in the list Of available
men whom they viii survey will be
Newton Baker. We are apt to see, any
time from now on, draft Baker"
| movement spring up somewhere, or In
several places. If the minor Democratic
leaders throughout the country get the
idea that the cleavage between Roose-
velt and Smith Is a real menace to VIC
tory in the campaign; If they come to
fear that any considerable number of
followers of Smith, or the conservative
Democrats of the East, or any other
| considerable number of Democrats, for
whatever reason, might be reluctant to
fOOC AOA GbOOoCNCAb dlbcI NOMINATION
if the local leaders and the delegates,
including some Of the nominally RooSe-
velt delegates, get that notion, they
will turn to look elsewhere. In such a
condition, Newton Baker, because Of
the eminence attaching to his career.
would stand high among the alterna-
tives to Roosevelt. They might pass
Baker over and go elsewhere, but they
would certainly give Baker a careful
consideration.
Gains Delegate Lead.
Meantime, as respects delegates,
Roosevelt is getting an immense num-
Der in his bag. He should have half
the delegates available to vote for him
on the first ballot, or some early bal
lot. In all past history, no man who
on the first ballot had a majority of
the delegates, has been denied the
nomination. But the present condition
I IS unusual. The analogy to past his
tory is modified by the fact that Roose-
velt is getting his delegates largely by
default. 1t is modified also by the fact
that conditions have arisen which
create doubt whether Roosevelt would
be the strongest candidate in the gen.
eral election.