Evening star., 1932-06-05
mic pressure will overcome ethnic
tance

TO indulge in any such adventure as
their seizure Of Wilma. On the other
hand, they are bound to seek to protect
the thousands of Polish workmen. rail-
way hands, lockers, etc, who live in
the free city. And it is always at least
possible that some local attack upon the
persons of these Polish citizens might
provoke an Intervention of the Polish
military force. This danger is not only
theoretical but real, because for several
years clashes between Poles and Ger
mans have been taking place and in
evitably have tended to increase as the
Hitler movement has gained ground
Any such intervention, however,
would not alone become instantly a
| European issue, but would infallibly
drive the German government to some
corresponding movement designed to
protect the German majority of Danzig
from Polish military invasion. And it
Is precisely this thing that not the Ger
man government. but the Hitlerites, who
represent the most aggressive national
lStlc elements are patiently striving to
bring about. Their double objective is
to provoke the Polish government into
/ some overt act and drive the German
government into some counter offensive.
! Moreover the present moment seems,
| in the eyes Of the "Nazis,' particularly
propitious, because change of govern
ment in France might lead to a change
OF policy. France is the ally of Poland
and therefore bound to support the Slav
state in war but French public senti-
ment Is not too enthusiastic about
| new war to perpetuate the Polish Ger
rldor, and NaZi calculations obviously
include disturbing French radical and
socialist equanimity.
| Real Danger
But the real danger lies outside Of
French policy. Whether France sup
ports or deserts Poland-and the chances
of desertion are fairly slight-Poland
will fight And the more uncertain
Poland is Of French aid, the greater the
temptation of Poland to act first and
possess herself of the strategic situ-
alton in war daily becoming more
inevitable. Years ago I remarked to
| Polish prime minister on the German
| fear of Polish military occupation of
| DanZig and he replied: Such fears are
absurd. We shall only occupy Danzig
on the first day of German mobil-
ization"
The fact is that the situation in this
corner of Europe is daily becoming more
dangerous. Both nations are progres-
sively becoming alarmed over the re-
ported aggressive purposes of the other.
The Polish garrisons in the Corridor
are thus naturally being reinforced,
| while last Winter there was at least
one serious threat Of Nazi invasion Of
Poland from the Breslau area.
Without taking too grave a view OF
the situation, then, it Is plain that 1t
lies clearly within the range of posi-
bility that some riot growing out Of the
| clash between Germans and Poles in
Danzig City might lead to an unofficial
rush of German Nazi storm troops to
DanZig or some more organized move
ment of Polish regular troops stationed
on the boundaries of the Free State.
Each nation is now pretty completely
convinced of the aggressive purposes
of the other and national sentiment
in each IS too strong to permit any
delay once aggression is reported.
1t is now nearly year and half
since / was In the Corridor and DanZlg.
Even at that time my Polish friends in
the Corridor spoke of German invasion
as something that might arrive from
one day to another My German
| friends in Danzig were not less salts
| fled Of the imminence of Polish in
rush. And, as a consequence, both
| races lived in a state of anxiety and
nervousness beyond exaggeration. Both
Germans and Poles spoke of war with
tne same certainty.
Field for Socialists.
! What constitutes the chief danger is
the fact that while the German gov
ernment can restrain its nationals
within the Reich and the Polish gov
eminent can with even greater ease
hold back the army, since the dictator.
Marshal Pilsudski, is also the military
commander in chief. no effective con-
troll can be exercised by the Bruening
cabinet over the National Socialists in
DanZig. Assured of the Hitler support
in the Reich they are eager to force
the issue, the more eager because it is
good political propaganda for Hitler
both in Germany and In the Free State,
The depressing and even alarming
circumstance about the situation Is
that nothing can be done about it. AL
Poles and most Germans would rather
endure a new war than any alternative
that involved the surrender on the one
hand of existing rights or on the other
of national hopes.
| No government could live in Poland
that agreed to renounce the Corridor.
none in Germany that consented to
accept it. There is no international
instrumentality to impose compromise
upon the conflicting peoples. BY all
other means than arms the two races
are in battle for the possession or re-
tention of territory over which they
have fought for seven centuries.
Nor can one mistake the fact that,
even If change in French government
has conceivably weakened the situation
of Poland slightly. the development of
the Manchurian situation and the grow
| ing tension between the Soviets and the
japanese have immeaSurably strength
| onad tho DnIich hand tho
of Soviet attack on the Niemen, con-
certed with German attack on the
Vistula, has been practically exercised.
Again, the quarrel between the Ger
mans and the Lithuanians in Memel has
temporarily lessened Polish danger on
the wilma front.
Meance Of War.
All things considered, one has to face
the fact that, at a moment when the
attention Of the world is mainly con-
centrated upon financial and economic
questions growing out of the great de-
preston, and the necessity for interna-
tional confidence and cooperation Is
unmistakable. the possibility Of a new
war provoked by a street brawl In q
Baltic city cannot be ignored. Nor
would it necessarily be an Insignificant
war. Poland alone will mobilize a mil
lion men and it is the common agree
ment OF all military observers in Warsaw
that this army would march as readily
and willingly as any in 1914.
do not wish to seem to exaggerate
the peril. It has existed for several
years and catastrophe has been avoided.
But 1t Is true that in this time not only
has nothing been done TO exercise the
peril, but also that national feeling on
both sides Of the borders has been
enormously exacerbated. The feeling
between Belgrade and Vienna in 1914,
which was the precipitating cause Of the
World War, was no more acute than
that between Berlin and Warsaw today.
And the odds between the two coun-
tries are nothing like as great as those
between Serbia and the Hapsburg mon
archY Moreover IL is at lea st worth