Evening star., 1932-03-27
BY FREDERIC WILLIAM VILE.

BY FREDERIC WILLIAM VILE.
~ ISARMAN1ENT is like prosper
1ty. 1t is not ''juSt around
the corner" 1t is on the way
~ but time and patience are re-
quired. Prosperity is certain
TO overtake the world before disarma-
ment on any far-reaching scale will be
attainable. Yet it is as sure as any
thing in human affairs can be that the
nations have turned their faces toward
the coveted goal, with a determination
to reach it, no matter how long, how
tedious, how disheartening the journey.
The Geneva Conference marks the
first definite stage of the march. When
the conference winds up this Summer,
it will adjourn with a record of initial
progress. No more is hoped for, and,
under existing world conditions Moth
ing more is possible. At any rate, ad-
vance, and not retreat, will be the net
result. It will leave the nations COM
mitted to carry on the work they have
started and left uncompleted.
Reconvenes April IL.
Since this writer returned from Eu-
nope two days ago, he has been be-
sought on many hands in Washington
to explain just how much, if anything,
Geneva and what, If anything more, is
likely to come out of the conference.
Let it be said at once that the game
Is very young. The conference assem-
bled officially on February 2, nearly two
months ago, but it has been subjected
to numerous delays and adjournments.
1t went into recess on March ID ana
will not be reconvened until April IL.
During the 61a weeks it was nom
finally in session, the conference gave
itself over for at least third OF the
time to purely routine and organization
activities. It functioned. mainly as
forum for speeches of keynote char
acter the rest of the period, but con-
ference thoughts were not on Geneva.
They were centered on China, and on
Shanghai in particular. On March 3,
Just as it might have been ready, under
ordinary circumstances, to get its teeth
into its real business, the conference
faded wholly out of the picture at
Geneva and gave way to the League
Assembly convoked to grapple with the
Far Eastern war.
There was, in addition to all these
diverting circumstances, yet another
factor making for delay-the French
cabinet crisis and the succession OF
Andre Tardieu to the premiership at
Paris. 1t is no wonder that the dis
armament conference to date is no
"forwarder." The wonder is that it has
managed to surmount its various vicis-
situdes as well as 1t has and clear the
decks for actual progress next month.
Probabilities TabuIated.
There is fair justification for tabu-
lating the following probabilities at
Geneva. in the light of discussions and
l. Limitation of existing armies,
navies and air forces to their present
respective strength, either on bulge
tary (expenditure) or on an "effectives"
numbers Of units) basis.
2. Agreement to assemble another
general conference on disarmament,
whose task shall be to undertake re-
duction from the general limitation
basis fixed by the conference of 1882.
3. Prohibition of so-called inhumane
methods of warfare, including poison
gas, meteorological weapons, long-dis-
tance heavy artillery, and bombing air.
craft, especially as any or all of these
war-waging means could be directed
against civilian, non-combatant COM
munities
4. Softening of the asperities in
Franco-German relations, which will re-
suit in certain concessions to the Ger
man demand for equality Of rights to
maintain national defense. Progress in
this field is delayed pending the out
come of the elections in Germany and
France respectively in April and May.
S. Burial of the Franco-Italian ma
val hatchet, with co-incident relieving
of the general European political situa-
ton.
6. Promotion, possibly completion, of
the plan originated by France for estab-
1iShment Of a Danubian economic con-
federation to bring Czechoslovakia, Aus
tria, Hungary, Rumania and Jugoslavia
into customs union, whereby political
peace in Central Europe would go hand
in hand with business recovery.
7. Definite realization by all nations,
large and small, that present expendi-
ture on ornaments is inSupportable and
cannot be maintained without breaking
the worlds back.
g. AS far as America is concerned,
decisions which will leave our country
relatively as strongly armed as it is
today.
To gain a proper perspective OF
Geneva Americans will be wisely guided
If they look upon events thus far as
purely Chapter l of a long, continued
story. Mankind has never tackled a
tougher job than disarmament nor a
problem that presents so battling an
array of complex and complicated
phases The problem would be stag
gering enough if it were confined
merely to its political aspects. But it
bristles with a thousand technical
facets as well. There are, for instance,
some so nations represented at Geneva.
On the average, each of them has pre-
sented about seven different dlsarma-
ment proposals. or a round total OF 4zo
propositions of one kind or another
dealing with the major units in military,
naval and aerial warfare. In the spirit
of democratic equality which pervadeS
the conference the minutest proposal
of the most insignificant state has TO be
scrutinized, debated thraShed out and
disposed of with the same care be-
slowed upon the proposals of the United
States. Great Britain or France.
It was Haiti, almost the smallest ma
ton at Geneva, which submitted the
longest list Of suggestions and schemes
for Kidding the world of disarmament
burdens. Only one country, Soviet Rus
sia, came forward with an idea that
would have made it possible for the
conference to act promptly and ad-
iourn. Russia proposes total, general
and immediate disarmament" ThlS
naughty universe, unfortunately, Is not
vet in mood to subscribe to anything
quite as Utopian as the plan Maxine
I,itvinoff laid before the conference in
February with not altogether uncon-
vincing logic.
"Sparring for an Opening"
The London Times likens Geneva de-
velopments up to now 10 the "sparring
for an opening" in which pugilists in
dulee In the boxing ring. The various
nations, especially the big powers, have
been feeling one another out. France
was constrained to learn just how fan
the Germans are determined to go In
their insistence upon obliterating arti'
Gle 8 of the Versailles treaty, which con-
denns them to military impotence.