Evening star., 1932-06-12
CHAOS FOR GERMANY SEEN
In REPUBLICAN DOWNFALL
Passing of Bruening and Rise of New
Power May Bring Revolution
and Communism.

concessions? To be sure Germany can
repudiate both reparations obligations
and foreign debts. But this double per-
formance will not invite the new finan-
cial aid Germany must have. much less
will it arrest the flight Of German capi-
tai from the mark. which has been con-
slant ever since the 1880 election.
Outlook Dark.
Germany has upward of 6.0OO00
unemployed, her foreign trade is shrink
ing rapidly, as, Of course, is that Of
every country. To purchase raw ma
terial for her industry she must have
fresh credits. There is nothing that
new government can do at home to
restore employment that Bruening has
not done. The very character and cir
| cumstances of the new regime insure
that it will obtain less, not more. for
elgn aid. since it can only inspire
Slighter confidence. A sudden change
for the better in world economic condi-
tlonS might just do the trick. but where
can one see the promise Of that
There remains the question Of foreign
policy. What can the new cabinet
achieve there? Any attempt to BRING
about a modification Of the eastern
frontiers means war. war with Poland,
France and Czechosoivakia The door
! to a resumption Of the AnschlusS ad-
venture Is bOlted shut. Reputation of
the disarmament clauses Of the Treaty
| OF Versailles is possible but this can
only awaken still further apprehensions
beyond the frontiers and inspire coun-
ter-meaSures.
All of this can only mean that the
new government is predestined TO fail
like the old. The question of control
Of sinking ship Is of only passing i'm
nnrto AY16 hn IL, -
sinking 1t has been sinking ever since
Bruening under the lash Of the Hitler
mobs abandoned the Stresemann policy
, of cooperation with France Oh terms
which removed French concern for Sc
curity.
Revolution Seen.
Last Winter in Genera one of the
most objective Of Germans summed up
the situation for me as follows:
German postwar history Will in
my judgment one day be summed UP in
three Rs, Republic, reaction. revolu-
ton. You are now seeing the last stage
of the republic. Bruening cannot last
Indefinitely because all he can do is
pile up domestic taxation and restric-
tion without obtaining anv foreign as
sistance. He may last until Lausanne.
he may go before, but since Lausanne
cannot bring relief for Germany he will
not survive it.
The next step is patiently reaction.
The army. the Junkers, heavy industry,
have no desire TO see Hitler take power
for, although the foreign observers usu-
ally miss the point, the 'Nazi movement
is primarily revolutionary. The circum-
stance that it is also super patriotic
and national has disguised this fact.
Hitler has been financed by heavy in
oustry. supported by the Junkers. toler-
| ated by the army, but only for the pur-
! pose of bringing Gown the republic.
/ Once that is assured ii is a matter of
| life and death for all three groups to
intervene. Read the Hitler program if
you doubt that!
Time Not Distant.
But remember that in a Germany Of
100000 of people there are only IS
900 capitalists. Imitation and its con-
sequences have wiped out the middle
/ class. At bottom the mass OF the Hit
lerites and of the Communists share
many Of the same sentiments. Even
tual combination between these two
groups is not only assured. but to such
a combination the Left wing of the So
cial Democrats must inevitably flock
You foreigners talk about the possibility
of German revolution in the future
luton IS proceeding in Germany at top
! speed"
/ 1t will be seen that much that nv
! friend forecast has already taken place
/ His conclusion was that in the end
| Communism would triumph. not the
Russian Communism not a Conmu-
nistic group inspired and controlled
| from Moscow. but German Commu-
nism as essentially Teutonic in its
/ character as the Russian is Slavic. Be-
| fore that he foresaw the temporary
control of a reactionary group, which
might collapse either through unsuc-
I ceSsful foreign war or under the weight
OF domestic misery.
! But what this observer foreSaw-what
most of the well informed European
/ observers. both German and non
German, looked forward to-Was a long
and troubled period within Germany,
which would inevitably have disastrous
repercussions all over Europe. They
shared the judgment of one of the
most distinguished and best informed
Swiss journalists. who returned TO
/ Geneva after brief visit 10 Berlin
| convinced that under the stress of
misery and priyation Germany had be-
come temporarily unbalanced and all
sense OF reality and measure had
departed
Future Obscure.
At least the selection of Won Papen
10 succeed Bruening. at a moment when
British and American confidence in
Germany was Of primary Importance.
tends to support this view 1t falls in
with the similar detail disclosed last
Spring when Bruening set out for
London on his despairing journey TO
| obtain British financial aid At that
moment the great bulk of the German
press advised him that success or fall
ure in London would turn on his abil-
lty to bring home the German colonies
which Britain had taken after the war.
In any event. with the passing of
Bruening and the rise to power of a
military junker Cabal it is clear that
the future of Germany becomes obscure
| and disquieting. The change must
usher in period of uncertainty all over
Europe and accentuate the economic
disorders. which have not ceased 10
develop since the hour when Bruening
turned his back upon Stresemann's
policy and adopted the foreign policy
of Hitler. Henceforth. neither domestic
revolution nor foreign war can be
wholly excluded from the range of
possibilities. And. at best, the restora-
t1on of confidence and cooperation
must be a long affair.