Evening star., 1932-01-17
AL SMITH HOLDS KEY
TO ROOSEVELTS CHANCE
Reported. Estrangement May Parallel
! Quarrel Between Theodore Roosevelt
and Taft i'm 1912.

with Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, had
Taft, with Theodore Roosevelt's sup
port. been reelected in 1912 and served
until 19l7-in that event no one can
say of course, what would have fol-
lowed; but it Is fairly certain that nei-
Jher Harding nor Coolidge would have
emerged from obscurity: our Presidents
during the postwar period would have
been persons now destined by the Taft
Roosevelt quarrel to be unknown to
history.
In degree. 1t Is so OF this Smith
Franklin Roosevelt estrangement. If
the PARALLEL to the Theodore
Roosevelt one should continue, If the
relations of the two men, now at the
stage we call estrangement. should go
on (aS the Taft-Theodore Roosevelt
one did to the stage of avowed, pub
lie quarTel-in that event, the quarrel
will most certainly determine the Dem
ocratic nomination. And If is now in
the cards that the Democratic nominee
is to be the next President, then the
Franklin Roosevelt quarrel will
have determined the next presidency.
And whatever or whoever determines
presidency, by that act, gives new
turn to history. the consequences of
which defy speculation.
0teH III IIllS way, VIII tile eltNdlloil
it truly has, the cause of the estrange-
ment between Smith and Franklin
Roosevelt is the most important un-
written story in current. American his
tory. For if the estrangement should
blaze later into public quarrel the
country will flame with discussion of
the rights and wrongs Of it, with every
body taking one side or the other. If
the Smith Franklin Roosevelt estrange
ment should follow fully the parallel
of the Taft-Theodore Roosevelt one,
then we would have during the next
few weeks of hurdles, both men con-
tending against each other for dele
gates, both striving to control the con-
yention, each making charges OF ingrat-
itude and disloyalty against the other,
Gus charge and counter charge.
That is the course the Taft-Theodore
Roosevelt quarrel took in 1912: it
caused every other aspect of public
affairs to be ignored, it started about |
half the people singing Onward, Chris |
tian Soldier" behind the Theodore !
Roosevelt banner, while another group |
behind Taft marched grimly in what
they deemed to be defense of the Con- |
stitution. 1t set us all to talking in |
the pitch of Theodore RooSevelt'S ia |
nous battle cry, I'VE stand at Arma- |
geddon and we battle for the LORD.
In short, that Taft Theodore Roosevelt |
quarrel in 1912 wrought us all to a |
pitch of passion such as now seems in
credible and caused the newspapers to |
record the battles of 1912 Republi-
can National Convention in headlines |
so huge they had nothing bigger to |
record the battle of Chateau Thierry |
when it came
Public Split Would Not Hurt Party.
In the Theodore Roosevelt case.
it was the Roosevelt of that day who |
took the initiative, made the quarrel |
public, carried it before the people. In !
the somewhat reversed setting of the !,
Smith Franklin Roosevelt eStrange-
ment if any one brings it before the
public, it must be- presumably Smith.
If Smith says nothing about it, natu-
rally Franklin Roosevelt will say moth
ing. It is Franklin Roosevelt, decid-
edly, who has everything to lose by the
becoming political bat
tie, with the friends of each party to
the quarrel taking angry sides.
1t IS commonly assumed that any
blazing of the Smith-Franklin Roose-
yelt eStrangement into public quarrel
would be a detriment to the Demo-
cratic party, would impair its chances
in the subsequent campaign against the
That is not true. That
is where the Smith Franklin Roosevelt
departs from parallel |
with the Theodore Roosevelt one.
The Theodore Roosevelt quarrel |
was fatal to the Republicans in 1912 |
only because both men tried for the |
presidential nomination, one of them !
got it and the other started third |
party. What would follow a public |
blaZing-up of the Smith-Franklin |
Roosevelt estrangement would be quite |
different Neither of the two would get |
the nomination. The prize would go |
almost certainly to some one not a |
party to the quarrel, such as Newton |
D. Baker Gt may go to him anyhow. |
There would be no third party and |
the Democrats in the ensuing campaign !
would suffer no detriment.
Indeed it would be much better for |
the Democrats to have this quarrel |
blaze up and burn itself out. For If it |
merely smolderS, and if Franklin |
gets the nomination, with |
most of Smiths friends and most of |
his very personal following understand
ing vaguely that Smith seems to feel |
he has cause for sullenness about |
set-up for the Demo- |
Gratis might cost them more votes and |
be, in all respects, more disadvantage |
GUS to them than a public burning out |
of the quarrel, with the neutral Baker |
getting the nomination.