Evening star., 1932-05-01

including the German preSiden-
tial election and the reopening of the
Disarmament Conference have taken
place, this ill-starred Danubian adven-
ture continues to weigh upon the minds
of all concerned with prosperity and
peace in Europe. The reason is simple.
The forces which wrecked the London
meeting continue to make impossible
any constructive step alike in the Dan
ubian area and in all other portions of
the Continent.
In Washington and New York one is
accustomed to hear it said that the
problem Of Europe is to bring about
some readjuStment between France and
Germany And in both places it is
lightly assumed that the necessities of
recovery in Europe are so obvious that
the obstacles can and must be removed.
But what was significant in tho Dan
ubian instance was that the attention
of the statesmen representing countries
struggling with economic and financial
difficulties was almost exclusively fixed
upon political considerations.
Germany wrecked the London con-
ference because she saw in it the coun-
terpart of the program for the rescue
of the same region which she launchd
Just a year ago only to meet with French
opposition and in the end to suffer un-
precedented humiliation Italy which
supported France against the German
plan for reScuing Central Europe last
Spring backed Germany against France
this year because Italy is equally un-
willing to see French or German inf1u-
ence increase in Vienna or Budapest.
In this situation the British, who were
giving the party" at London, were
practically helpless although they had
Co. L. 20
the French idea.
What is ironic about the situation is
that Great Britain and to an even
larger extent the United States must
pay the financial costs of this political
duel. And, again, what is droll is that
the only place from which Germany,
as well as the Danubian states. can
get fresh capital to start again the
wheels of industry and trade is Paris.
Thus while one must acknowledge that
the Germans have repaid the French
for last Springs episode, and Tardieu'S
defeat has been as complete If not as
important as Curtius', there remains the
question as to who will be the eventual
loser.
Germany Stripped of Capital.
AS it stands, Germany, like all Cen
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capital and gravely in need of credits
and temporary loans. And as I have
said, France alone can supply the cash
because both America and Britain are
already up to their necks in German
long and short term loans and are also,
although far less, engaged in Austria
and Hungary. France, on the other
hand, has made relatively small loans
to her Little Entente Allies, Czecho-
slovakia, JugoSlavia and Rumania. She
has therefore a clear interest in the
economic recovery of the whole region,
which is the antecedent condition to
the prosperity of her friends.
But the Central European game is
after all game in which great powers
are playing with the small as their
pawns The three nations of the Lit
tie Entente are allies of France, Aus
tria is the German piece, Hungary-to
a lesser extent to be sure-iS the
italian. If any form Of a Danubian
confederation were formed of these
five powers the allies of France would
have the majority vote. That is why
Berlin and Rome agreed upon the ad-
mission of Bulgaria, Germany'S ally
during the war, and at least in Italy's
eyes a possible partner in matters
Jugoslav.
Germany is satisfied that If no as
sociatiOn Of the five states takes place
Austria will eventually come to her, and
after union with Austria she will hold
Czechoslovakia in her grasp. She is
opposed to any solution of the Danu-
bian question which could offer any
obstacle to her eventual realization Of
the Mitteleuropa program. Italy op-
poses any reconstruction of the old
CINTTVr 1y-r1-T aIy
economic lines, because that would au-
tomaticauy terminate her influence in
the Danubian area. France wants a
reconstruction of the Danubian area
primarily TO block the later realization
OF the AnschluSS by Germany and to
consolidate her situation in Europe by
improving the status of her allies.
In this situation it is perfectly clear
that the hope of economic recovery is
slight and the chance of financial aid
insignificant. Germany and Italy can
block the French program, but they
cannot find any money to finance the
stricken Danubian states. France has
the money, but obviously will not en-
ploy it TO prepare the way for the
triumphant rebirth of the German Nit
teleuropa dream. Nor will she while
Germany is playing this game make
any contribution to the restoration Of
Germany itself.
Can Halt Others Programs.
Every Jne of the continental great
powers can. then, successfully check
mate the program of the others. None,
by contrast, can take a single forward
step alone. The deadlock is complete
and the resulting disintegration is pro-
gressive. But no people is prepared
to change its basic conception and
neither Tardieu nor Bruening could
successfully bring about a compromise
abroad and an acceptance at home.
Meantime the United States and Great
Britain with upward Of So, 900 900 900 at
stake In Germany and the Danubian
area are left on the side lines to watch
the rapid destruction of their equity.
Germany, herself bankrupt and GER
tain at Lausanne to repudiate repa-
ratiOns and take the first step toward
an eternl moratorium in the payment
OF private loans. seems quite prepared
10 let the progressive ruin Of Central
Europe proceed believing that after
utter bankruptcy reconstruction will
follow her desires. She trusts time as
an ally and refuses any kind of ad-
Justment involving sacrifices or con-
cessions. If she can endure the ter
rlnc straln upon her social and eco.
nomic structure which the prolonged
depression involves she may yet wiz
the World War. That is the simple
truth.
France, on the other hand. has a!
yet suffered nothing corresponding K
German, British, or even American, ex
perienceS resulting from the worlC
blizzard. She is nervous, business il
poor, the market is declining, the strair
is growing. But nothing as yet /
as bad IN French eyes as the paten
peril of a new German domination il
Central Europe and a fresh German
invasion at the Rhine Moreover. tn
rise of HitleriSm in Germany steadil
keeps alive French apprehension. AnC
Of course, the effect is to keep tn
string on the French stocking double
klotted and to make France uncom
promising in her refusal TO aid Ger
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