Evening star., 1932-06-12
BY MARK SULLIVAN.
S the delegates gather for the Re.


n one sign of the extraordinary
4 \ nature of the times is the prac-
tically universal contentment of
Republicans with renominating Mr..
Hoover next week. There is literally
not a whisper of any other course. Six
months ago. and year ago, and two
years ago, there were formidable groups
who gave thought to drafting EXPIRES
ident Coolidge. OF that there is moth
ing today. Republican leaders and
Republican rank and file have come to
feel that this depression Is not thing
to be ended by any such simple device
as nominating man named Calvin
Coolidge instead Of a man named Her
bert Hoover
The same feeling is reflected by the
complete lack of grievance against Mr.
Hoover. There is a business depres-
Sion-and Mr.. Hoover is in the White
House. That condition ordinarily con-
stituteS the setting for complaint. A
year ago and two years ago, there was
such complaint There is none of it
now. Deeper and more somber aware
ness of the nature of the depression has
ended that. The difference between two
years ago and today is the difference
between complaining of the captain be-
cause the food is not well Served-and
hoping the best for the captain and
praying for strength to his arm at
time when the ship seems in danger of
sinking.
The two party conventions meet under
extraordinary conditions. Hardly any
other conventions ever came together
in such an atmosphere of uncertainty.
We should be obliged to go back to 1864,
to the two conventions that sat in the
midst of the Civil War. to find anything
approaching the confusion of the ma
tlonal mind in which these present con-
ventionS meet. Those Civil War con-
ventions compose the only parallel. The
two that were held during the great
war in 1916 met in calm compared to
the present and with easily charted
courses ahead.
1t is not that either of the two par
ties in these conventions are involved
in facticnal strife. 1t is not within the
internal proceedings that the confu-
sion lies. The Republicans have known
for months exactly what they are 60
ing to do Except with respect to the
precise shading Of the platform decla-
ration on probibition).
The Democrats may be said to have
some differences: but these are differ
ences between a large faction on one
side and relatively small one on the
other As respects the presidency.
signify NlOle llldl HldJollty are loI
nominating Gov. Roosevelt; slightly
less are divided among some eight or
ten other aspirantS That condition
contains no great potential excitement
Quite the contrary. for if this were
Republican convention in which the
majority noninates. the Democratic
nomination would be as fully deter
mined today as the naming of Mr..
Hoover by the Republicans. 1t is only
because the Democratic rule requires
tWo-thirdS to nominate that there is
any uncertainty at all about who will
be the Democratic candidate for the
presidency. That uncertainty is really
not great and should be quickly solved
Similarly the Democrats have some
difference of opinion about prohibition,
but that cannot cause strain. A de-
Cided majority of the Democrats favor
going strongly wet; and since in plat
form making the majority rules, that
question should lead to no great in
ternal strife.
Confusion Is Outside.
No. it is not within the parties that
the confusion lies. 1t is in the condi-
tions outside, the setting in which they
meet, the state of the Nation in an
economic sense and the state of mind
on the part of the people arising out of
the economic condition. In that sense,
no conventions ever met in such con-
fusion. nor in circumstances containing
SO many possibilities of chaotic events
during the campaign.
These two conventions meet in the
midst Of the worst business depression
the country has ever known-that Su-
perlative is easily justified. They meet
in the midst of it, and no person knows
certainly whether the worst is past or
yet to come. Only week ago last
Tuesday the President of the United
States warned Congress and the coun-
try Of an existing emergency in which
the financial safety of the Government
was threatened the doubt about it
abroad had led Europe to distrust the
integrity of the dollar.
From that state we must go upward
or downward In one outcome, we may
have by October, or at some time pre-
ceding the election in November,
markedly rising prices of wheat and
other commodities, creating the assur-
ance that we are on our way into
changed period of better business. In
another outcome we may see, during
the Summer months, lower depths of
depression. All we can know is that
during the past week, or certainly dur
ing the week preceding, we were on the
lowest plateau so far Whether the
next plateau will be higher or lower,
there is directly opposed opinion.
Unemployment at Peak.
1t has been the judgment of the
writer of this article that so far the
worst phase of this depression was
during the first week of october last,
just after the fall of the British pound.
1t must be conceded that right now
many phases of business are worse.
Prices of securities on the Stock Ex-
change are lower. Prices of some COM
modities are lower. Volume of business
is smaller. Volume of unemployment
is greater-today there is more unem-
ployment than at any time during the
depression.
But the aggregate of all the condi-
tions that compose depression was
much worse last October. In the first
week of October banks were failing at
the rate of over 20 a day-this week
there are no bank failures to speak Of
There have been no bank failures of
any consequences since February, when
the Governments Reconstruction FL
nance Corporation began to function,
and there is sound reason for expecting
there will be no further bank failures
other than the occasional ones that
would happen in normal time. Also,
in early October. gold was going out of
the country at the rate of more than
S30,000,000 day-the aggregate of gold
taken from America during october was
greater than any quantity ever taken
out of any country in any period Of
the same length, peace-time or war
time. 1t is true that this week there Is
another movement of gold away from
America, but it is smaller; and since
Europe has already taken so much, the
further quantity she can take is lin
tied. Also, in October there was hoard
ing of currency at the rate of more
than s30,000,0O0 a day-if that had
kept up for hundred days the coun-
try would have been paralyzed 1t is
true that this week there has been
again some boarding, but it is smaller
tl,n 10 hoe