Evening star., 1932-08-14
BY WILLIAM HARD.

The mere practical politicians among
President Hoover's guests in Washing
ton during his notification speech fes-
tivities were less interested in niceties
Of issues than in calculations Of out
comes. They spent much Of their time
on figures-figures of electoral votes
next November. They differed widely
among themselves In details; but the
general averaged total Of their observa-
tions and prognostications would seem
to indicate that they enter the cam
paign with rather less than their usual
confidence, but with plenty, neverthe-
less, Of fighting hope.
AS is customary among politicians,
they divide the States for campaign
calculation purposes into five classes:
Those virtually certainly Democratic,
those virtually certainly Republican,
those inclining toward being Demo-
cratic, those inclining toward being
Republican and those that are wholly
dubious and debatable battlefields.
All the States Of the solid South"
are this year listed by most Republican
politicians as certainly Democratic. A
few rapturous Republican enthusiasts
see q Republican chance in Florida.
The mass opinion of their colleagues Is
at this moment against them. The
thought Of breaking the solid South"
is his year very faint in Republican
ct les. There are 10 States in the
IS i'd South: Virginia, North Caro-
lima. South Carolina. Georgia, Florida,
Alabama. Mississippi. Louisiana, Ar
kansas, Texas. They between them
have lib votes in the electoral college
The total number Of votes in the cleo
electoral college Is 266. The Demo-
Gratis start of In this campaign, through
their historic control Of the solid
South" with 113 toward that 266.
On the other side Of the fence there
are 10 States that cannot, 1t Is true,
be called a solid North" but that
nevertheless are claimed with great
confidence this year by the Republicans.
In New England, in this list. there
Vermont. Most Republican experts
wholly scout the idea that the Demo-
Gratis can carry New Hampshire. which
some Democratic calculators have as
signed to Gov. Roosevelt.
In the North Atlantic region the Re
publican figures give themselves Penn
sylvania and Delaware without doubt.
In the prairie region they give them
selves, similarly doubtless, by Novem-
Der the States Of Iowa and Kansas.
In the mountain region they give them
selves, with ultimate certainty, the
State of Wyoming, in spite Of the
resentment aroused there by President
Hoover's withdrawal Of Federal public
oil lands from further private entry,
and the State Of Utah, where 1t Is be-
neved that desire to re-elect Mr.
Reed Smoot to the Senate will greatly
Herbert Hoover to the White House.
On the Pacific slope the Republican
gatherers of Republican prospects claim
California for their Californian stand
ard bearer without dinching.
These ten States thus claimed as
virtually certain Of capture by the Re
publican ticket have one hundred votes
in the electoral college.
So far, then, the Republican profess
sionals concede one hundred and thir-
teen electoral votes surely Democratic
and claim one hundred electoral votes
almost surely Republican.
Then come the States in which the
Republicans or the Democrats, respec-
lively, are supposed to have not a GER
tainty, but an edge"
The majority Of Republican prophets
are at this date willing to grant that
the Democrats have the "edge"-only
temporarily, they hope-in five OF the
States lying between the historic South
and the historic North and constituting
what Is technically politically called
the border" The five border States
thus supposed to entertain prepon--
derance Of Democratic sentiment at
this moment are West Virginia, Ken
lucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Okla
homa These States are open to in
vibrations of Democratic ardor from
the solid South" and they are looked
upon by most Republican warriors as
now calling not so much for capture
as for recapture before November 8.
In the prairie region the Republican
eStimators concede an ledge" to the
Democrats in North Dakota, where the
followers of the Republican rebels, Sen
ator Frazier and Senator Nye, are re-
bellious indeed In the mountain re-
gion an ledge" is assumed for the
Democrats in Montana, where the
Democratic Senators Walsh and Wheel
er have much popularity and much in
fluence On the Pacific slope an edge
is similarly assumed for the Democrats
in Washington, where a desperate sit
uation exists in much Of the lumber
industry.
These ten States "edged" toward the
Democrats by present general Repub-
lican calculation have seventy-twe
electoral votes.
Il X
Coming to the States which the Re.
publican seers and wishers claim a.
"edged' toward themselves, the journal.
istic inquirer is invited to look at South
ern New England and at the three State.
cf Massachusetts,, Rhode Island anC
Connecticut Instead of conceding thess
L g. .i.-i.A 4. 4 l..