Evening star., 1932-01-10
PAST SLUMPS HOLD KEY
TO COMING CAMPAIGN
Bryan Free-SiIver Fight in 1896 Is Held
Closest Precedent and Analogy
to Present.

! not know the fundamental lmpTODd-
bility (or shall We use the stronger
word, inaccuracy) OF those dispatches
which said, for example, little while
ago that Ambassador to London and
former Vice President Charles G. Dawes
would contend against Mr.. Hoover for
the Republican presidential nomina-
ton. Mr.. Dawes must have been pretty
| thoroughly exasperated to be obliged
| to send out an indignant repudiaticn
| to overtake dispatches which had i'm
! puted to him the last extreme OF politi-
cal folly
The sum Of the conditions about the
Republican nomination is that Mr..
Hoover will get it without substantial
opposition. Mr.. Dawes will not oppose
him. Mr. Coolidge will not oppose him
Mr.. Hoover will not be opposed by any
Republican of that type, of the type
! that could WIN Republican nomination
under any conditions
We can put it another way: Mr.
Hoover will not be opposed for the NOM
ination by any one who really expects
to get it, He will not be opposed by
any one for the purpose Of getting the
nomination. If there is opposition to
him at ell, it will be for the purpose
of preparing the way for third party
or for helping the Democrats.
The convention will contain 1854
delegates. Mr.. Hoover will have. at the
very least 1000 of them. He may
readily have l,lO0 If all the Progress
sive Republicans sometimes mentioned
as contestants against Mr.. Hoover
should enter the race, the aggregate OF
their delegates would not be more than
$50. Not all of these Progressives will
enter. Possibly none of them may
enter.
Recurring Borah Rumor.
II has been said of Senator Borah in
every campaign since 1908 that he
would try for the Republican nomina-
ton. 1t was said again in widepresad
newspaper surrnise only last week. But
the fact is, Senator Borah has never
tried for the nomination. He has never
contemplated trying.
1t is said Senator Hiram Johnson OF
California will try for the Republican
nomination. Senator johnson tried IN
1924 under favorable auspices with
well organized campaign and he had
Just 10 delegates. 1t is said Gov. Pm
chot of Pennsylvania will try. II he
should he would get some delegates in
Pennsylvania and a few in some
Northwestern States, but hardly more
than 100 out of the total of LISA.
The most formidable effort made in
recent years to take the nomination
away from a President in office (wheth-
er Republican or Democratlc) was IN
| 1924 when the late senior Senator La
Toilette tried against President Cool
! idge. Senator La Toilette on that oc-
casion got "a delegates against Mr..
! Coolidge's 1.065.
1t is possible young Senator La Fol-
lette may enter the primaries this year
! ha Oh IN
it would be not with the expectation OF
winning but merely for purposes local
to Wisconsin politics where the La Fol-
lette family has had longer and more
striking period of continuous power
than any other family in any American
State. The late senior Senator La Toilette,
from 1908 until the time Of his death
in 1925, followed the practice of always
getting the Wisconsin delegation for
himself. 1t will be interesting to see If
young Senator La Toilette keeps this
practice up.
If the reader is politically minded it
will be easy for him to grasp just how
| the situation lies as respects opposition
! by the ProgresSives to Mr.. Hoover's
nomination. 1t lies in the minds of the
Progressive leaders just as it will lie in
the minds of the reader.
Want Pr0greSSiyes Grouped.
If they start a movement for dele
| gates against Mr. Hoover it cannot be
for the purpose of preventing the lat
ter's nomination. because every one
knows that is impossible The theory
underlying the idea is that there is a
certain amount of Progressive Repub-
iican opposition to Mr.. Hoover, that
this can be detached and made self
conscious by opposing Mr.. Hoover in
the Republican primaries and that
| thereafter this Progressive sentiment
will naturally oppose Mr.. Hoover in the
election.
1t is at this point that the Progress
sive leaders are obliged to take account
Of the future If they detach their
Progressive following from Mr.. Hoover,
its natural impulse thereafter will be
to vote for the Democratic candidate N
the election. But suppose the Demo-
cratic candidate should turn out to se
no more satisfactory to the Progressise
leaders than Mr.. Hoover? The Pro-
greSsive leaders must take that chanse,
and it is because of the chance that
they now hesitate.
There is one other possible outcome.
The Progressive leaders, having de-
tached their followers from Mr.. Hoover
by fight in the primaries must hold
it, SO to speak, In midair. If the Demo-
cratic candidate is satisfactory to them
they can take their following there
But if the Democratic candidate is un-
satisfactory to them then their only re-
course is to have third party-and it
is extremely doubtful If any of the Pro-
gressive leaders would be willing to go
off on the vain enterprise of third
party.
The sum of this is that making a
contest against Mr.. Hoover for the
nomination entails inevitably some con-
sequences-and it is hesitancy about
these consequences that will deter the
movement to oppose Mr.. Hoover for the
nomination.