Evening star., 1932-01-03
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

udiy SOAAlS w bO = SAY
Most of them went wrong last
l. January l and nearly as many
the January before. Their er-
rors have been collected by a cynic
into a book called, derisively, "Oh,
Yeah" They feel they are discredited
before the public and their inner self
confidence has been sapped.
Yet the truth is, rarely has the pat
tern of a future year lain so clear to
the eye as that of 1882. 1t lies not in
the form of a design pointing toward
one outcome or another. 1t does take
the form, however, of a completely
clear set of alternatives alternatives
having to do chiefly with what Con-
gress does-or does not do-about cur
rency and credit The consequences Of
each alternative are almost as definite
as formula Of logic Each, depending
on which we take, leads to fixed set
of business and political consequences,
practically as surely as Spring leads to
Summer.
We start with one present condition:
The price of wheat is about 55 cents
a bushel, about half of normal. Il state
it thus starkly for the sake OF simplic-
ity, but the reader will understand /
use the price of wheat as a the symbol
of the prices of all commodities, in
cluding WageSO
The alternatives for the coming year
are-either % wheat will stay, rough
", where it now is, or (2) wheat will
rise toward somewhere near normal
Wheat Price Barometer.
If wheat should rise to, roughly. nor
NAL, the consequences in the world of
business will take the form of optimism
and prosperity, and the consequences
in the world of politics will take the
form of perfectly good chance, or bet
ter than a good chance, of the Repub-
licans remaining in power.
That the price Of wheat should dou-
BILE itself within the coming year, or
before the presidential election on No
vember 8, is completely possible. 1t
has happened before, often. 1t has
happened during the last 10 years and
almost happened a second time in the
same period.
In March, 1924, wheat sold at S1.02 a
bushel. Ten months later, in January,
1925, wheat sold at S2.2012 a bushel.
Cotton Price Shifts Noted.
Cotton has doubled in price twice
during the last 10 years. On April Is,
1921, cotton sold at "a cents pound;
20 months later, on December Is, 1922,
cotton sold at 24.2 cents a pound much
more than double. Again, on Decem-
Der /, 1926. cotton sold at 10 cents a
pound, and then, only nine months
later, on September Is, 1927, at 22.5
cents pound.
All of which is to say this. and no
more: That it is possible for the prices
of wheat, cotton and all sorts Of COM
modities to double within the coming
year. And If they do, then we shall
have cheerfulness and activity in busi-
ness and in politics probably success
| for the party in power, the Republicans.
Rising prices is the one best bet Tor
the Republicans.
So much for one of the alternatives.
But if the price of wheat does not
rise, If it remains, roughly, where 1t
now is throughout the coming year,
then we shall have different set OF
consequences in business and politics.
A different set not necessarily an op-
/ posite set 1t would still be possible
| for business to improve and 1t would
still be possible for the Republicans to
keep their grip on power, though the
chances would be against them. Much
will depend on how wisely they act, on
how wisely the Government as whole
acts, including Congress.
Grain Held Political hey'
So long as the price of wheat (wheat
as a. symbol of all comnodities) re-
mains where ii now is, that fact Will
be the starting point Of all our major
politics, in Congress and In the presl-
Dental campaign. 1t will be very Vio-
lent politics, something like 1895, re-
tiring prohibition to the status OF
| forgotten quarrel.
+S hlIShA1 iS IN
! itself and as a symbol of all commod1-
ties the principal cause, almost the sole
| cause, of our political and social and
of our business troubles. Il protect my
| self against some economists who may
read this article by saying I know per-
| fectly we'll the price of wheat may be
! partially not a cause but an effect OF
| business depression. In this field. cause
| and effect are so intricately mingled
it is impossible to separate them. In
any event am writing at the moment
| for the lay reader and making some
sacrifice of meticulousness for the sake
of simplicity
Here is how the price of wheat works {:
A farmer two or three or four years
ago borrowed $4,000 on mortgage-that
is, he borrowed, as of that time, 5000
bushels of wheat. But today at present
prices he owes 10000 bushels of wheat.
He can't pay it. 1t can't be done. TIE
cutting in two Of the price OF wheat
has doubled the burden Of all debts,
! 1t is so, not only as to the farmer and
/ his mortgage. 1t is so in the case Of
Germany and reparations. 1t is so in
the case of the debts France and Brit
ain owe us. Debts contracted when
wheat was 81 bushel cannot be paid
when wheat is so cents Except under
special conditions and all with extreme
| difficultv-with, indeed, actual inius-
tice) The farmer has only his wheat
| to paw with. and with wheat at SIS cents
bushel he has not enough. The num-
Der of farmers who are in default on