Evening star., 1932-01-17
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

F%TvE months from now, roughly,
49, tbs Democrats are going to
choose q presidential nominee.
~ At this moment Gov. Frank
a lin Roosevelt of New Yofk Is very
1hnuch In front. For nearly a year there
Was been an organization behind him, a
Mery aggressive organization. POSSIBLY
k little too aggressive for Roosevelt s
Nbest good, for some Of the Roosevelt
1nanagers In their relations with other
Democratic chieftains as high in rank
Ms Roosevelt, have made the impression
OF being q little arrogant) In addition
10 an organization that works on a
Nationwide scale, there are local
Roosevelt Organizations in several States.
These organizations, it is true, do not
come from the graSS-rootS." There Is
no record Of any case in which con-
siderable number of Democratic voters
came spontaneously together and Spon-
taneously formed a Roosevelt club or q
Roosevelt committee. The Roosevelt
organization, as to its big pcrts and
its little, is composed Of party workers
and party leaders of various degrees; Of
the type who, either for amusement or
self-interest, take from time to time an
active interest in politics; men who
hope, perhaps, to get an Office in case
of victory. or, as in the greater number
of cases, have no motive more material
than merely the fun Of the game.
Roosevelt Backers Aggressive.
The organization behind Roosevelt is
much the most elaborate and aggres-
sive in existence. There is behind Gov.
Ritchie of Maryland an organi-
cation as aggressive but by no means
so elaborate. There is one behind ex-
Secretary of War Newton D. Baker; but
Hhfe fc IT1ftph 1nSe rlratpTfiO1IC than
Roosevelt's. Associated with few
Others, such as Gov. Murray of
Oklahoma and Banker MEL Traylor
of Chicago, are modest efforts rather
too unassuming to be called organlZa-
tiors, In short, Roosevelt Is the only
one whose friends are going after that
nomination in real "go-getter" fashion.
The Roosevelt organization is just
now being slipped into high gear. Pri-
mary elections, in the several States
that have them, begin in few weeks.
Formal steps looking to the primaries
are beginning this present week. At
every such point the Roosevelt forces
are on the job. If the Democratic
nomination is to be had by energy and
organization, Roosevelt would seem to
be by far the best bet.
The key to the Democratic situation
Is ex-Gov. Alfred E. Smith of New
York That Smith does not look kindly
on Roosevelt and his candidacy no one
doubts. That there is estrangement be-
tween the two men every one assumes
The writer of this article has no atom
of direct or positive information about
it. But friends of each discuss it casu-
ally, newspapers allude to it daily,
magazines print articles about 1t.
That Smith should help Roosevelt
toward the nomination, in the sense Of
actively and publicly promoting it, is
now pretty nearly impossible. The de-
tachment that Smith has from Roose-
welt is now so well known to the pub
lic-or so believed by the public-that
any ardent assertion by Smith of sup
port for Roosevelt would cause wonder
about Smiths motive, even raise a
question of his sincerity. The only real
question is whether Smith will preserve
his silence, stand quietly by and let |
Roosevelt get the nomination, or
whether Smith will actively oppose him. |
If Smith should actively and publicly |
oppose Roosevelt, Roosevelt would not |
have a chance in the world. Smith !
could, If he should undertake it, de- |
prive Roosevelt Of practically all the |
delegates from every one of the big |
States from Illinois east
1912 Estrangement Cited.
1t was said of the arrangement be-
tween another Roosevelt, Theodore, and
William H. Taft, twenty years ago, that
1t determined the presidency of the
United States for at least eight years;
that it determined whether America
should take part in the World War,
and, If so, when and how, and that it
gave to the whole stream of American
history a turn whose consequences are
impossible to estimate.
That Is all true. The quarrel between
Taft and Theodore Roosevelt made it
easy for Woodrow Wilson to be elected
in 1912; Wilson's presence in the White
House made it easy for him to succeed
himself in 1916. The course of America
during the World War became largely
what President Wilson initiated. And
that Is not the sum of the consequences
that flowed from the quarrel between
Taft and Theodore Roosevelt. Once the
new twist had been given to the stream
of American history by the quarrel in
1912 and the election OF Wilson, the
farther reaches of the new direction
were largely what Wilson, Intentionally
or unintentionally, made them. BY the
end Of Wilson's eight years, new set of
conditions, largely associated With
Wilson, had arisen.
The speculation is whimsical, Of
course: but had Taft not quarreled