Evening star., 1932-09-06
30 VOTES MARGIN
| MAY WIN ELECTION
Victory Either Way Seen
Within That Number of EIec-
toraI Votes for President.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

With but 81 days remaining until
the election, there is striking unanimity
of opinion among leaders of both
parties that the presidential election
will be won by relatively narrow mar
gin of electoral votes. Substantially all
Democratic leaders, when they speak
in confidential candor, expect victory
by less than 50 out of 531 electoral
votes. Substantially all Republican lead
ers expect victory for their side within
the same margin of so electoral votes.
This is almost the same as saying
that New York Is the decisive State.
New York's electoral vote, At, comedies
roughly with the margin by which each
side claims victory 1t seems clear that
as New York goes so will the Nation go.
This is without anv doubt fair epit-
ONE of the best opinion in both parties
rs of the ninth week preceding the
election.
With this condition practically ad-
mitted everywhere, there is tense inter-
est In how the resignation of Mayor
Walker will affect the outcome of the
presidential election in New York State.
There is tense interest, and also COM
plete confession of inability to follow
out, as yet, the extraordinary currents
and counter currents set in motion by
the dramatic resignation of ex-Mayor
Walker and the developments involved
in 1t.
Varied Elements Involved.
The elements involved include Walk
er. Tammany, the possibility of an in
dependent Democratic ticket or fusion
ticket for mayor, ex-Gov. Alfred E.
Smith and, finally, William r. Hearst,
who shows something like proprietary
interest in both ex-Mayor Walker and
Gov. Roosevelt. Depending on what
happens now, some of these forces may
run parallel, others opposite to each
other. 1t is quite impossible, at this
time. to estimate the net resultant Of
them.
The broadest consideration Of New
York State begins always with the
basic fact that the normal thing is for
New York State to go Republican. 1t
has gone Republican in every presi-
Dental election since 1892, excepting
the one occasion in 1912, which is COM
pletely explained by the split of the
Republican party into Republican and
Progressive. New York in presidential
elections has gone Republican consist
emily and on the whole by an increas-
ing proportion Of the total vote. In
two comparatively recent presidential
elections. 1920 and 1924, the Republic
ans In New York have cast approxi-
mately twice as many votes as the
Democrats.
Certainly 1t must be admitted that
the normal thing Is for New York to
go Republican. It Is true this year
departs from the normal in the sense
that for nearly three years the country
has been in business depression. Re-
publicans believe, however, and have
much reason to believe, that the effect
Of the depression, adverse to the Re-
publicans. is sufficiently overcome by
the present beginning of recovery.
Several Possible Outcomes.
If that be admitted, the question be-
comes whether any one of the several
possible outcomes of the Walker resig-
nation will have the effect of increasing
the vote of Gov. Roosevelt as Demo-
cratic nominee for the presidency. 1t
Is difficult to see how any outcome of
the Walker case can increase the num-
Der Of Democratic votes for the presi-
Dental nominee. 1t is easy to see how
some consequences Of the. Walker resig-