Evening star., 1932-01-10


the other nations concerned in
i the German reparations prob
lem at Lausanne in the third
week of January automatically and de-
signedly reduces the Geneva Disarma-
ment Conference to the status OF a
| "sideshow" Since the very fate of
Europe turns upon the adjustment of
economic difficulties, discussion of the
comparatively minor question of arma-
ments must be subordinated to the
| major problem.
No conference in all the dismal his
tory of international meetings in the
postwar period has been so completely
without preparation as the present and
at none was the prospect of clash be-
tween irreconcilable national points of
view so clear. And in the contempo-
rary state Of mind and of fact in Eu-
rope new clash of nationalistic in
terests promises widespread ruin.
Little Expected of Arms Farley.
Now the program Of Geneva is quite
clear. Meeting in February. the Dis
armament Conference will occupy some
days In organization and several weeks
| in eloQuence. In these weeks the
spokesmen of the various nations will
have an admirable opportunity to utter
the professions of their countries in IA
vor of peace and to present their sew
eral prescriptions. Then commissions
will be appointed, adjournments will be
| taken and the whole matter will be
| gently pushed aside to wait for the out
come Of the French and Prussian cleo
tions in the Spring and the American
| IN the Autumn.
! Meanwhile the thing that counts In
rrr{1I hn 4hn +iY,n Mt
same. There Europe will presently try
! to hit upon some form of arrangement
which will provide Germany with the
| necessary moratorium for at least two
| years and at the same time preserve
| intact the French claim upon Germany
for reparatfons in accordance with the
terms Of the Young plan. Since Ger
many cannot pay, some form Of relief
must come to her, but since France
will not surrender her claims the relief
| will be temporary.
| At the same time our European debt
ors will doubtless move toward some
| common policy In the matter of Amer
, lean debts. Since we refuse to cancel
or scale down they will, in all prob
! ability strive here, as in the case of
reparations, for a temporary expedient
which they will discover through their
right to claim moritoria under their
debt settlements. The single difficulty
here lies in the fact that, while all
other nations can reduce their Amer
lean payments to inconsiderable sums,
Britain is held for more than $3.50, ,000,-
| 600 annually in any case, and may not
] be able to meet the demand.
| In such case she will either have to
envisage reputation or an appeal for
better terms. Either prospect will be
| humiliating and the possibility of OBJ
tanning better terms at the moment
the United States is plunged into g.
presidential election is, to say the least,
| problematical. That Is why the dis
cussion Of reputation may go farther
than Americans think during the COM
| ing six months.
But in any event Lausanne cannot
| formulate any definite plan to clean
'up the European mess because of the
! irreconcilable policies of the United
States and France. We have our
debtors by the throat and they can only
get Off by repudiation. France has
Germany by the throat and is bound
to hold her as long as we hold France.
Now, as at all times since 1919, the
state Of minds In the several nations
makes any real readjustnent out of
| the question.
Hope of u. S. Concessions Dims.
Our state of mind, of course, makes
both the forthcoming European con-
ferences of only transitory Importance.
The British had hoped that the anxiety
Of the Hoover administration for q sue
cessful disarmament conference as an
| achievement to exploit in the national
campaign would move it to agree to
~ 81
which would bring agreement alike
from the French and the Germans at
least to a show of budget limitation of
armament expenses.
The French. also counting on the
needs of the Hoover administration for
foreign success to balance domestic diff
culties, had reckoned on some conces-
sion to the idea of security, which would
enable French government to get do
mestic approval for a semblance of
armament limitation and would SINH
larly persuade the British to make
new security pledge.
Both now know better, and as a re-
suit Geneva has lost its Importance. AS
for the Germans, they hoped that our
presence would insure an Anglo-Ger-
manhattan combination to force
France to consent to reduce her mill
tary power and thus to abandon her
continental hegemony. But our gen.
eral course has now satisfied the Ger
mans that we will do nothing effective
to help them, while their necessities
put tr.em more and more completely at
the mercy of the French.
French Stand Dooms Farley.
France Is going to be supreme both.
at Lausanne and at Geneva, and at
both places she will take a line which
must be entirely disagreeable to the
United States. In the matter of dis
armament her course has always been
clear and she has many times adver-
tised her policy at Geneva. She will
demand security commitments from us
for any consent to armament reduc-
tions. Moreover, events in Manchuria
have served to demonstrate the COM