Evening star., 1932-07-17
TO WEIGH
STRONGLY In CAMPAIGN
Roosevelt Shows Quick Grasp of Prob
lem by Chicago Flight-Radicalism
and Conservatism in Balance.


velt, less publicly known than these
Senators, are equally radical or more so.
Some Of these men are very radical in
deed, take kind of fierce emotional
pleasure in appealing to discomfort and
advocating change. Some Of them are
deplorably inexact in the methods they
use Senator Dill, taking a stand in the
fight on permanent chairman at the
convention, said in effect that any dele
gate voting against Roosevelt's candi-
date was, in the familiar radical phrase
tool of Wall Street" That was silly
Persons who know Gov Roosevelt
will say that he is not really radical
himself, but that it is his trait. fortu-
nate or unfortunate, as you look at 1t,
TO let radicals push themselves close to
him and have his ear. Once during
the convention he seemed to feel it
necessary 10 push some Of the radicals
away from him. There was newspaper
ru-nor that Senator Burton K. Wheeler
of Montana was Roosevelt's preference
for the vice presidential nomination.
Gov. Roosevelt felt called upon 10 state
publicly that ne had no preference.
Some Of those volunteer associates Of
Gov. Roosevelt are likely to give him
good deal of this kind Of trouble. Oc-
casiCnS for diSavowal may arise with
him rather frequently. Many politicians
wonder if Roosevelt may not have some
uneasy experiences due to the obliga-
ticn which undoubtedly Hearst thinks
Roosevelt owes to him. Politicians have
a saying among themselves to the effect
that when Hearst indorses a candidate
he thinks he is hiring personal clerk.
A few public men selected by Hearst
have got along comfortably in the rela-
ton. But they had to be men Of un-
usual temperament, such as the recent
Mayor Hylan Of New York.
Map Of the Campaign.
This distinction, Republican conserva-
tive versus Democratic radical, deter
mines the map of the election. In
speculating on the results in November
We must-up to this time at least-as-
sumo that Roosevelt Will lose New York
and the other Eastern States nearby
New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts,
and Rhode Island. To assume that
Roosevelt will lose his own State or any
of these Eastern States may shock some
Democrats. Yet that IS how 1t lies.
| Those are conservative States.
| We can put it this way: Roosevelt
as a candidate, the policies Roosevelt
! is associated with, appeal to Senator
!
! may take it as automatic that If RooSe
welt appeals to Senator Norris he does
not appeal to New York and the East.
! No one can conceive that Senator
Norris, if he were himself the presi-
Dental nominee. could carry New York
and the East. Neither can we reason
ably conceive, as of this time that
Roosevelt can carry New York and the
East. Future developments in the cam
paign may upset this hypothesis, but
thus 1t stands today.
! Since Roosevelts personality and
policies appeal to Western radical or
Progressive Senators, such as Senators
Norris Of Nebraska, Dill Of Washing
ton and Wheeler Of Montana, 1t fol-
lows that Roosevelt's chance to win lies
in carrying the West 1t is reasonable
to assume, as of today. that Roosevelt
should carry much Of the West.
To make complete map of Roose-
velt's chances we can begin by saying
that he ought to carry the whole of
the South. He should carry. in addi-
ton, the States We have come 10 call
border States - Maryland. West Viz
gini4. Kentucky. Tennessee, Missouri
and Oklahoma. He is not, Of course. as
certain to carry these as he is to carry
the Southern States. Out of these six
border States he might conceivably lose
. . OIlC VI lNO, lIlC OAlCof BCA lldJo
West Virginia or Kentucky or both.
Then. Roosevelt. if he is to win on this
hypothesis. must carry practically every
/ State west of the Mississippi except
the old tried and true Republican ones.
such as Iowa oregon. California and
perhaps Kansas and Minnesota. On the
theory we are now accepting Roose-
velt should carry even some of theSe
States though, Of course, he cannot
carry California and is most unlikely
to carry Iowa.
Roosevelt to win at all. on the theory
that it is Democratic radical versus
Republican conservative, must carry
nearly the whole territory west OF the
Mississippi If he should lose as many
as three States there he cannot win
in the Nation. Finally, in addition to
all that has been enumerated so far,
Roosevelt must carry that classic,
doubtful State. Ohio.
The sum of the States here enumer-
ated as ones that Roosevelt might
carry, on the theory that he is the rad
distress. would be just barely enough
to elect him.
Same States for Wilson.
The States that are here enumerated
as ones that Roosevelt, running as
radical, may carry. are practically iden-
tical with the States that Woodrow
Wilson carried in 1916. Roosevelt's
present prospects. looked at from the
point of view of hope for him as the
radical candidate, are much like Will
sons in that year.
In all that has been said so far no
consideration has been given to the
part prohibition will play. This article
considers RooSevelt's chances based on
the economic issues only.
About prohibition it is too early yet
to say. The crystallization on that is
sue is taking unexpected and confus-
ginning to realize that to get the
eighteenth amendment out Of the Con-
stitution without qualification will be
long process at best, and possibly
an unsuccessful one. Extreme vets
who are Republicans are coming to be
more satisfied with the Republican
plank The Republican plank gives
them all that they were demanding
up to a few months ago; it gives them
the right Of State such as New York,
when it so decides, to have liquor. Re-
publicans who are Republicans first
and vets afterward find the Repub-
lican plank on prohibition adequately
satisfactory Barring a few extreme
fanatics, the present-day Carrie Nations
on the wet side Of prohibition, few wet
Republicans are ikely-taking into ac-
count the economic parts Of the plat
forms, to vote the Democratic ticket
merely because the Democratic plank Is
wetter.
On the other side, Democrats In dry
States like Kentucky and West Virginia.
and Democrats in the rural sections Of
doubtful States like Ohio, are coming
to feel that they have been unneces-
sarily betrayed by the extreme wetness
Of the Democratic plank on prohibition.
Not few Democrats who are strongly
dry will vote the Republican ticket for
the sake of the more reasonable plank
on prohibition.
However, the currents on this poin'
are still in process Of arising.