Evening star., 1932-10-29
BIG REPLACEMENT
| DEMAND EXPECTED
Auto Executive Points to
Sales Prospects in
Many Lines.
BY BRADLEY w. TRENT.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, October 28.-Business
has been living of inventory for the
past two years, and now that the finan-
cial crisis is passing, the long deferred
demand for requirements alone should
send us we'll along the road to recovery,
Alvin Macauley, president of Packard
Motor Co., declared in an interview
here.
Mr.. Macauley pointed out that de-
preciSation, obsoleScene and inventory
exhaustion are the rule in I'll lines-in
the factory, in wholesaling and retailing
and in the home.
Fully 70 per cent of this country's
buildings need repairing, Mr.. Macauley
believes, and he declared that the cost
of saving the surface" exposed to the
weather during the depression would
probably exceed the total spent for
radios from the beginning OF that in
dustry up to the present.
Shortage of Housing.
"In the building industry" he said,
1--WE find shortage Of good housing.
Reports from cities throughout the Ma
ton reveal 10 per cent shortage OF
homes Only IA per cent of the cities
are overbuilt. In this industry alone,
repair, maintenance and modernization
needs are valued at $4,000, 100000. Many
long deferred contracts are being placed
to take advantage of low material and
labor costs.
Extensive surveys, including one
among its employees made by large
electric equipment company, indicate
that the total deferred purchase re-
quirementS in the United States amount
to nearly $4,000, 100000
The QUESTIONABLE, which asked what
employees now need and would buy IL
they could be assured that business and
economic conditions would improve and
that improvement would be reflected in
the family income, estimated that such
demand would include 3,096,000 new
homes, 66O6,000 automobiles, 8,838O0
refrigerators, ,494 900 units of heating
equipment, 4986,00 washing machines,
3 100000 radios and 100000 ironing
machines.
This indicated demand for automo-
biles is equal to more than three times
the 1881 production and for refriger-
ators to nine times the estimated 1881
production.
In the automotive industry there are
thousands of hoary vehicles-publlc
enemies-on our highways. A survey
of the overdue replacement market,
made by an independent organization IN
no way connected with the automotive
industry. estimated that by the end OF
1882 about IS per cent of the passenger
cars will be more than three years old
and about 33 per cent will be more
than six years old. At the end OF 1879
only about SO per cent of the cars were
over three wears old and only about 20
per cent more than six years Old
Use Of Raw Materials.
Pointing out that only half Of this
anticipated demand for cars should
benefit millions of people employed in
the industry or Its allleo ne4os' Ml
Macauley said:
The automotive industry uses over
30 per cent of the rubber. so per cent OF
the plate glass. 72 per cent OF the alloy
steel. over so per cent OF the upholstery
leather and al arge part OF the products
of other industries. Normal business IN
the automotive trade means prosperity
for the entire Nation"
Asked what would happen II this re-
placement demand suddenly changed
buver's market into a sellers market, ne
replied:
I'm the face Of brisk demand the
small stocks of automobiles would quick
" disappear. We would need steel to
replenish these stocks, but how could we
get it quickly? Steel ingot production
has been running about 19 per cent OF
capacity. Steel has been rusting faster
than it is being produced.
1T has been estimated that II one
man we're skilled in all details of build
ing one of our cars, it would take him
full year to do it. Thus the buyer OF
an automobile now provides for the
support, for an entire year, of an invis-
ible family of four. Industry must not
make sales at the expense OF charity.
But mere fear of criticism should not
keep us from buying things now. Buy
ing merchandise makes jobs
(Copyright, 1927