Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1932-03-20
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

this article does not go very deep
because it deals wholly with first
choice" delegates; it does not take into
account that eccentric Joker" of
nomination conventions, the element
Of delegates second choice" which
counts largely in a convention in which
there are so many candidates.
Not less than Is men will receive
votes on the first ballot OF these,
several will begin to drop out very
early. The second choice of the
delegates supporting these minor candi-
dates will obviously be important. If
we could know where each group of
delegates will go for their second choice,
nominated.
Second Choices Uncertain.
This is quite impossible, however, and
will continue to be impossible until the
convention Is in the midst Of its ballot
ing. Many delegates instructed for a
minor candidate will not decide who
their second choice is until they are
face to face with the changing pictures
which the convention will present from
ballot to ballot. Subject to this quail
flcation about second choice, we can
take a tentative view of the situation
as 1t stands about the middle Of March.
Governor Roosevelt of New York will
be the leading candidate. On the first
ballot he will have much the largest
number of delegates. The number will
be somewhere between 400 and an eX-
treme maximum of, let us say, SIT.
choose the arbitrary figure SIT as the
maximum of Roosevelt's delegate
strength partly because it really Is the
extreme strength he Is likely to have on
the initial balloting and partly because
SIT is exactly half the total number of
delegates (Which is 1,154). Exactly half
the delegates-or more accurately, one
more than half the delegates, consti-
tuting a majority-has a concrete sig
niflcance. If Roosevelt should have a
majority Of the delegates on the first
ballot, he would be likely to win the
nomination, though this does not nee
essarily follow.
The number Aecessary to win Gin a
Democratic though not in Republican
Convention) is two-thirds. To say a
candidate must have two-thirds of the
delegates to win Is a little misleading,
1t is true that in order to get the nom
ination a candidate must register more
than two-thirds On some one ballot.
But a candidate can have considerably
less than two-thirds-let us take the
figure already spoken of, 577-and by
having that many he has momentum
very likely to carry him on to the nee
eSsary two-thirds
If Roosevelt turns up at the conven-
ton with SIT delegates, two conditions
will operate in his favor. The leaders
opposed to him will hesitate to prevent
his nomination, even though they have
the one-third that is enough to do so.
Roosevelt with SIT of the delegates
would have, so to speak, a kind Of
moral title to the nomination. The
country would feel he deserved 1t and
would resent his being deprived of it.
In short, If Roosevelt has SIT delegates.
the leaders opposed to him would ordi-
narily be likely to step aside and let
him go on to victory.
Band Wagon" Psychology.
The other condition favoring Roose-
welt Cor any other leading candidate in
any Democratic Convention at any
time) If he has half the delegates, is
band wagon" psychology among the
delegates themselves. If they see Roose-
welt with half the delegates on the first
ballot, some of them are likely to think
him probable winner and take the
earliest opportunity to get behind him.
II they are uninstructed delegates, free
to vote as they please, they are likely to
get behind him at once; If they are in
Structed for minor candidates as their
first choice, they will serve notice on
the minor candidates that they are not
disposed to waste their power casting
complimentary votes for a candidate
whose hopes are vain, and that they
propose to go to Roosevelt so soon as
they have gone through the form of
fulfilling of their first choice obligation
on the first ballot.
To sum up: If Roosevelt has half the
delegates on the first ballot, he Is likely
to w1n-but it cannot be said he is
certain to win.
1t is sometimes said and widely
thought that If candidate in a DEM
ocratlc Convent1on-in this case Roose-
velt-haS a bare majority available on
the f1rst ballot, he is then absolutely
sure to go on the necessary two
thirds. That does not necessarily fol-
low. 1t is true that in all the Demo-
cratic conventions in history only one
candidate has registered mere than a
majority and has then failed to go on
to the necessary two-thirds. That was
Champ Clark in 1912. Clark registered
at one time 556 delegates, which was
IL more than half of the delegates
as the total figure then stood, 1888.
In spite Of Clark's registering IL more
than q majority, the convention did
not give him the necessary two-thirds,
but dropped him and nominated Wood
row Wilson.
No I912-1s32 Analogy.
1t is true there is not much analogy
between Clark in 1912 and Roosevelt in
1882. Indeed, there is rather failure of
analogy. Roosevelt does not have op-
posing him now any one candidate so
outstanding as Woodrow Wilson was in
1912. But in the present case it is
certain, from flrst-hand knowledge,
that the leaders opposing Roosevelt are
very earnest In their Judgment that it
Is not wise to nominate him and would
not hesitate to deprive him of the
nomination, assuming they have the
power to do so, even If he should have
a majority of the delegates.
So much for that. 1t is about as far
as We can now see. If Roosevelt
has SIT delegates he has a good chance
to be nominated. If he has materially
less than SIT, he Is pretty certain not
to be nominated What will happen in
the event that Roosevelt fails is too in
tricate to speculate about. All we can
do is TO point out certain conditions
that will arise.
Whatever the number of Roosevelt's
delegates, whether 400 or SIT, they will,
when and If Roosevelt is defeated, have
a prevailing state of mind. Immediately
upon Roosevelt being defeated they will
pass through psychology which is
well understood and anticipated-an
taken advantage of-by politicians of
the type who deal with the psychology
of large bodies Of men in a room.
Every Roosevelt delegate will go to
the convention hoping to see Roosevelt
win. That way lies satisfaction of his
primary emotion. The moment he Is
baked Of that satisfaction his next
state Of mind takes a practically uni
versal form. He looks about to see what
or candidates were most