The Waterbury Democrat., 1932-01-08
By RODNEY BUTCHER NEA Service Writer

cepted gauges, 1881 was demo- cratic year. So was 1880.
 Now comes 1892, all-important because next November a president ah well as another congress will be elected. Although millions hold their faith in Herbert Hoover and the republican party. such barome- fers as exist seem to indicate that this also will be a year of demo- cratic victory.
 Political predictions 10 months ahead must inevitably be accom- panied by emphatic warnings that Intervening developments. perha ps entirely unforeseen. may complete f " alter any political situation. Tho consensus of prophecy now is that: |. Tho democratic nominee. probably Governor Franklin D { Roosevelt of New York or Newton H. Baker of Ohio, will defeat Pres!- 4 dent Hoover.
 2. Inc democrats will win w0rklIsg ma iorities in congress.
 .. The chief issues will bc pro- lAbitiOn, depression, tarfff and war debts.
 The trick is to stick that in your hat. sit back and watch to sec what, if anything. happens to up- set the dope.
 For 20 years democrats have no' been so sanguine, republicans so despondent. Nor has there been any such approach to unanimity in a forecast that president woull be- voted out of office.
 The republican leaders hope for business revival or serious demo- cratic mistakes. The extent to which either or both must become operative in order to turn the .fSa2 tide is a speculative ques- ton. Either or both. coupled with the country's traditional nor. mai republicanism. might insure Hoover's recollection. Another possibility is that Hoover. now berated, may come to appear as a martyr and thus attract wide pop uiar sympathy.
 The voters themselves have pro- vided the most authoritative index of ti1e present trend. In 1880 they wiped out the republican majority of 100 in the house and nearly captured the senate. Important states such as New York, Illinois, ohio, Massa chusetts. Indiana. Con- necticut-and even republican Kan sas and South Dakota-returncd democratic victories.
 During 1881, in elections to hll Ii vacancies, voters gave house control to the democrats, who held all their own seats, won eight oi the il and took republican seats in New Jersey, Michigan and Texas tian are that when a party in power loses the house it loses the next presidential election. There have been new exceptions.
 The economic depression. in It's third year, deepened through 1880. It is politically automatic that prosperity keeps party in power. Depression doesn't auto inatically force out an administra- tion, but the likelihood becomes greater the longer one lasts.
 Hoover's lack of popular ap- peal. his political ineptness and his failure to make more convincing impression as a leader in time of distress have also contributed to his predicament. His measures to combat the situation, however wise and profound they may be, have not caught the popular ima- uination. Thus far faith in them. for the mass of voters at least, re- uulres immediate results or else abiding faith in Hoover's infalli- bility. Although hero-worship re- mains Q national sport and the presidency commands tremendous respect, one observes no popular warmth toward Hoover as one ob- served 1t in the case of the canny Coolidge, the human Harding or the crusading Wilson.
 Hoover's best hope is that his measures will bear--Or seem to bcAr--frult. If the country can once be convinced that it is per- ceptibly going uphill again, all is likely to be forgiven forthwith and Hoover may again shine as a national hero, physician fo.' economic ills who brought the pa tient through bad crisis.
 Meanwhile, however. the pro- hlbition menace frightens eastern republicans. Hoover is dry. The democratic nominee will inevitabl he wet. New York, Illinois, Mas .achusetts. Ohio and New Jersey have indicated more or less clear Iy that, other things being equal, they prefer wet candidates. A car- didate can hardly be elected even if he loses wet New York alone.
 Since the republicans have lost their prosperity argument it now seems as if "other things" might he considered equal. Tch demo- crats will lose popular votes on the wet-dry issue because of their wet candidate. but they stand to gain electoral votes and still to retain the dry democratic Soll South. into which no one expects Hoover to break again.
 Thus. although both parties are badIy split by prohibition, the set pp Is decidedly in favor of the democrats. That is why there's q strong movement in republican ranks for platform plank this ynar declaring for submission of the issue to the people. The movement will bear watching.
 Democratic procedure on the tariff issue in this congress will give US a better idea how and to what extent it will be effective in the campaign. The party has con ristently attacked the Hawlev- S-noot act. The democrats will also be trying to set up a recorj on such other issues as taxation, unemployment and farm relief. The war debts and the issue Of cancellation or revision may be-