Evening star., 1932-01-29
AUTOMOBILE TRADE
IN HOPEFUL MOOD
Manufacturers See Prospect
of Better Business Despite
Recent Shrinkage.
BY DAVID J. WILKIE.
Written for the Associated Press

DETROIT, January 29.-Although
the total registration of motor cars
in the United States showed a shrink
age of more than half a million
vehicles during the last II months, the
fact, instead of arousing apprehension
among automobile manufacturers, is
giving them cause for encouragement.
These cars, they say, were taken out of
operation, not because their owners
could not afford to re-register them, but
more specifically because they were
worn out.
There are several million more
vehicles. they add, that should be sent
to the scrap heap. but are being forced
TO give up the last ounce Of power and
the last mile of transportation. Soon
or late these too, must be dropped
from the registration rolls and their
former owners then will become imme-
diate sales prospects for the merchan-
diSing division of the motor car in
Gustry.
Shrinkage In Registration.
The shrinkage in the aggregate regis
tratiOn of motor vehicles, now number
ing 25.94O,O00 units as against 26,5Ol,-
4d3 at the end of 1929, is cited by auto
mobile sales executives rs proving very
definitely that substantial backlog OF
potential business for the industryls be-
ing pied up. The induStry'S optlmists
say this backlog runs into several mil
lion units. and that taken in connec-
ton with the annual normal replace
ment volume of any one year holds
promise Of a highly satisfactory future
for the makers of motor cars.
The extent of the replacement
market. however, has been the basis for
10 little disagreement among optlmlStS'
conservatives and pessimists in the
automobile industry. The OptimlStS
arc disposed to believe the number OF
potential buyers at the present time IS
well in excess of 100000 persons and
that it it growing daily. The pesSl-
mistS. on the other hand, assert that en-
tirely too much dependence is being
nIaced upon the volume of the backlog.
Thev agree that virtually every car
produced before the 1882 models We're
brought already is obsolete so far as
stvle is concerned. Mechanically, how
ever. they assert last years cars and
those of several years before them may
be kept running indefinitely by parts
replaCemCnts
SDokesmen for both sides of the dis
cusSion concerning the replacement
market agree that style obsolcSCence
will plav an important part in releasing
much of the stored-up buying power
upon which the future Of the industry
seemingly depends.
StvIe ObsOleScenCe.
What style obsolesCenCe means is be-
ing Strikingly demonstrated in the eX-
hibits at the current automobile shows.
The models now on display at the De-
troit show and the various dealers eX-
hibitiOns throughout the country Illus
trate the tendency Of manufacturers to
make their 1882 product as different as
possible in appearance from previous
models. And that there may be no
misappreheusion as to the length of
the road the motor car has Travelled in
its evolution most of the shows are eX-
hibt+ing a few earliest models boast
ing whip sockets as well as SINGLE
cylinder power plants.
Sales reported from the show floors
continue to exceed even the most
optimistic hopes Of sales executives and
predictions generally are that reglstra-
tiOns for the current month. which Will
encompass most of the shows, Will top
those Of any month during the last
wear. Activity in dealers show rooms
also is showing an encouraging upturn,
inspired to some extent of course, ty
the first appearance of new models.
Considerable interest was aroused in
trade circles by the report last week
that the Ford Motor 20. had produced
a number of bantam" cars as models
for its plant at Dagenham, England, to
be used in European competition with
the Austin and other cars Of the small,
light type There was disappointment,
however, because the Ford organiza-
ton had not presented its new 1882
models at the current Detroit show.
Desire for Competition.
The failure to bring out new Ford
of some kind, eight or four" says the
Michigan Manufacturer and Financial
Record has been a bit of wet blanket
even for its Cthe Ford company's) COM
petitors. The continued dominance Of
Ford in the motor mind was never
better illustrated than during this
period of waiting. Even his competi-
tors have been wishing that he would
get something cut so that the competi-
ton might begin