Evening star., 1932-10-06
AUTO MEN Count
STILL ON BACKLOG
Industry's Sale Forces Look
ing Forward to New
Demands.
By the Associated Press.

By the Associated Press
DETROIT. October 6.-The automo-
bile industrys sales directors, looking
always forward, are still counting the
backlog they claim has been stored up
in the last three years since output and
consumer demand began their precipl-
tate decline from the industrys high
record mark.
All authorities in the industry agree
that a backlog of unusual proportions
has been piled up; how to break it loose,
they add. is something they have not
succeeded in finding out. The size OF
the stored up requirements OF the
motoring public is the subject OF con-
siderable guesswork in trade circles.
100000 Units.
In quarters where very careful
analyses are made of new car reglstra-
tionS and used car disposal the estimate
is placed as high as l0,000,000 units.
Whatever the exact volume may be,
sales directors seemingly are agreed that
if the potential buying capacity could
be loosed now the demand would keep
all plants going at profitable rate for
several years, even though no new de-
mand arose
The new demand. however, they point
out will develop normally at a rate
W Itqlllt SltduS ldtUUly OpcI-
alton indefinitely, once volume pur-
chasing again obtains III the motor car
industry.
Sales directors as well as heads of
the various producing units of the in
dustry are convinced that the cycle"
tradition Of the automobile industry is
definitely thing of the past. When
their market broke down late in 1929
there was almost unanimous prediction
&l,r u .~t t,,-t<,
of the customary cycles. There would
be lean" year, to be followed by
recovery" year. and then another
boom period, the industry's leaders
asserted
Lean and Leaner Years.
The lean" year, however. was fol-
lowed by two others. each progressively
"leaner," with sales and production
automobile executives assert that while
sales volume has declined, the "recov-
cry forces have been at work almost
since the beginning of the decline.
The balancing Of production strictly
to demand, they explain, is something
entirely new in the industry's history
since the mass production era began.
Consequently, they add, production
economies have been made from top to
DCIlOlll, 81 LlldU Ollly d lu&lF 10 lICCoNo W
start not only the recovery" period OF
production and sales, but the very def
mite restoration of profitable operations
throughout the industry
In saying that the ''cycle" tradition
is definitely eliminated from the motor
car industry its leaders indicate that
the balancing of output to speclhc or
potential demand is to be a permanent
policy. This conservatism. they say, IS
10 ba Nf the indl1StrV
Barring something at present unfore-
seen, they expect to bring to the IN
dustry stabilization that will mean
no more boom" periods, but also no
more lean" years
This sfabilization. with healthy
level of. output from, year to year, Is
one Of the things automobile execu-
tives have been hoping for over a long
period. is Nacaiegenle4t, tley aGd. vas
possible only through the establishment
of a policy that held production aoso-
lutely to demand.
Normal Demand Enough.
Normal demand, growing out OF the
annuaf mechanical and style oosoies-
cence is sufficient, most sales directors
helieye to insure profitable operations
in every production unit of the industry.
In this connection they point out that
in 1890 replacement demand absorbed
approximately 100000 vehicles. There
is some difference Of opinion as to Just
what will constitute a normal basis OF
operations once the purchasing blockade
has been raised The average output
and distribution of the last decade, how
ever, places it at close to 100000 pas
senger cars and trucks year
There are few if any executives in the
industry who do not believe that If there
was an aggregate demand for 40,000,O0O
cars and trucks in the last 10 years, an
average output of 100000 a year will
be needed over the next decade or more.
Holding that the automobile long ago
became indispensable, they are confident
the demand will be released shortly.
Everywhere in trade circles the opinion
is heard that 1888 demand will be at
least tu,ice that of the current wear