Evening star., 1932-04-03

Y and closer to the Democratic
~ presidential nomination. He
still does not have it "in the
bag" as the political phrase goes, and
probably will not before the conven-
don meets. The number Of delegates
ff5t favortng him, and more than that
the number of leaders who favor keep
ing the situation open, are in the ag-
gregate probably enough to make sure
the nomination will not be determined
until after the convention assemblies.
If this were a Republican race-in
which the nomination is made by a
maiority-it would be almost possible
now to say Roosevelt has the nomina-
ton won. But in a Democratic con-
vention it takes two-thirds to nomi-
nate. In spite of any number of dele
gates Roosevelt may have-any number
within likelihood-he cannot be sure
of the nomination until the balloting
is under way and the required two
thirds have voted for him.
This is a year of gusty political pas
sions, and the favoring tide that Roose-
velt apparently has as of today can
readily turn Most of the delegates
Roosevelt has been getting so far come
from rural States. those having no large
cities. 1t may be that the primaries
in States like Massachusetts, and
Pennsylvania may reveal that RooSe-
welt is less favored by the city type
of vote. The big city vote in the
Northern States is very necessary for
Democratic victory in the election and
any sign of comparative weakness on
the part of Roosevelt in the cities would
handicap him when the convention
comes. In sum, Roosevelt recently
and as of today is going strong. He
is still, however, subject to many con-
ditionS which will reveal themselves in
future primaries or arise Unexpectedly
between now and the convention.
Smiths Effort Futile.
Roosevelt has been much favored re-
Gently by three developments having
to do with three Of his opponents.
Three men who were expected to have
considerable numbers of non-Roosevelt
delegates seem now likely to have fewer
than was at one time anticipated.
Ex-Gov Smith of New York has
not been able, under the conditions he
imposed upon himself, to turn anything
near the whole of his personal popular
ity into delegates for himself and op-
posed to Roosevelt When Smith on
February 8, announced his willingness
to let his friends elect delegates for
him, the conservative estimate was that
Smith would assemble at least $50 dele
gates out of the total of 1,154. 1t Is
now doubtful if Smith will as Snble,
under the conditions he imposed on
himself, as many as 125 delegates.
The severe handicap to Smith lies in
the conditions he attached to his posi-
ton in the race He said he was will
ing that his friends should elect dele
gates for him. If he had stopped with
that statement he might readily have
received the $50 delegates that were
estimated at the time, or even more.
But Smith added two conditions. He
said he was mot a candidate and
would not make a campaign. The
first of these conditions put him in an
equivocal position. He became at once
a candidate and not candidate That
condition, standing alone, was pretty
near fatal.
Leaders, workers and voters all over
the country who are ardent for Smith
personally, and who would joyouSly and
in large numbers have gone to the polls
to get the presidential nomination for
him, were cold" to the idea of giving
him delegates merely for an intangible,
uneXpreSsed and not understood pur-
pose associated with clothing him with
power in the convention.
Delegates Only Tepid.
The second of Smiths conditions,
that he would not make an active cam
paign, deprived him of the opportunity
of going into the States and making
speeches and otherwise using the re-
markable magnetism and his eXtraor-
dinary power of speechmaking to ac-
Quire delegates where contests arose.
The net result of both of these handi-
caps upon Smith is that it is doubtful
if he will have as many as 125 dele
gates and the delegates he gets will be
only tepidly loyal to him. The dele
gates Smith gets in Massachusetts,. for
example land it is probable he will get
many there in spite of the handicaps
he imposed upon himself and his
friends, will not be available to Smith
to do with as he pleaSes. If, as is COM
monty understood, Smith is opposed to
nominating Gov. Roosevelt, the MaSsa-
chusettS delegates who come in Smiths
name will decidedly not go with him to
the last ditch in opposition to Roose-
Welt. The Smith delegates from Massa-
chusetts will not be anti Roosevelt
delegates" On the contrary as to many
OF them, Roosevelt will be their second
choice, and under the curious set of
circumstances Smith has thrown about
the situation, many of his delegates
from Massachusetts will be ready to go
to Roosevelt pretty early in the con-
vention.
To put in broader terms the impedi-
ment Smith has set up in front of him
self, he has let it be understood that
he is opposed to nominating Roosevelt.
but he has not put in words, SO far, any
reasons for his opposition. Il say he
has 'let it be understood" That may
be strong phrase. The fact is, it is SO
understood No one is justified in say
ing authoritatlvely that Smith is op-
posed to nominating Roosevelt, for
Smith has not publicly said so himself)
The consequence is that Smith has
created detriment to his own position
in the public mind. In the lack of any
statement from him as to reasons, much
OF the public assumes that Smiths op-
position to Roosevelt (admitting that he
Is opposed), must be based on some
thing in the personal relations of the
two men. Almost certainly that as
sumption Is unjust to Smith.
Considers Possible Victory.
It must be assumed that Smith, on
public grounds of principle or legitimate
political eXpediency, regards the nom
ination of Roosevelt as less desirable
than the nomination of some others.
But Smith does not say this publicly
Probably he cannot say it publicly. He
is obliged to remember that, after all,
the nomination of Roosevelt is a posi-
bllity. Smith, looking forward to that
possibility, must naturally hesitate to go
on record with any statement detri-
mental to Roosevelt, which statement, if
put out now for the purpose of pre-
venting Foosevelt's nomination, might
be used later in the campaign against
the Republican nominee to reduce the
chances of Roosevelt's success. Smith,
in short. is in different position. The
net of it is that the number Of delegates
elected for him is going to be far short
of the true measure of his popularity
among the rank and file of Democrats.
And as respecting Roosevelt, the net of
it is that Smiths participation in the
denomination campaign is going to be
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