Evening star., 1932-10-26
INDICATIONS SHOW
TREND TO HOOVER
Change, However, May Not
Yet Be Sufficient to AS
sure G. o. P. Victory.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.


Accepted indices continue to point
toward Democratic victory. AS be-
tween the two candidates, the latest
Literary Digest poll gives Gov. Roose-
welt 81 per cent Of the total vote, Pres
ident Hoover only 80. The Hearst poll
gives Mr.. Roosevelt Sc per cent, Mr..
Hoover A. This view is prevailingly
borne out by such political correspond
ents as G. Gould Lincoln of The
Washington Star and Arthur Krock of
the New York Times, both men of long
experience and good Judgment. The
net of their dispatches from many
States points toward election Of Gov.
Roosevelt.
The evidence Of a tide toward the
Democrats has been strong. 1t would
be possible for such tide to be very
strong, but still to stop short Of Demo-
cratic victory. Politicians and obServ-
ers and even more the average person
have come during half generation un-
sciously to think Of a normal election
as one in which the Republicans win
overwhelmingly. In the past three
presidential elections, the Republicans
won by 444 electoral votes to 81 in 1928.
by 322 70 l36 in 1924, and by 404 to 127
in .azO. With that as the experience
ara recollection Of IL years, 1t Is
natural to think Of any marked depart,
ure from it as tide. A tide would
have to be very strong indeed TO carry
the Democrats from 81 electoral votes
I'D to 266. the minimum for victory.
While polls point in favor OF the
Democrats. the large fundamental dis
crepancv between them suggests their
fallibility. The Literary Digest gives
Mr.. Roosevelt 81 per cent Of the total
Another gives him only Sc per cent
That is a very material discrepancy. II
one of these polls is right the other
must be some 10 per cent wrong.
Details Unconvincing.
In both polls some details are Sc
great a departure from precedent and
from present Judgment as to seem un-
convincing. One poll gives Massachu-
setts to Mr.. Hoover by to l. 1t seems
extraordinary that a State normally
doubtful should be two to one in favor
of the Republicans in precisely the year
in which the country as whole seems
headed toward the Democrats. In the
other direction, the Digest poll shows
the Democrats carrying Pennsylvania
by a preponderance of II to 8. That Is
contrary to all precedent and contrary
to the present judgment of observers
The Hearst poll gives Pennsylvania to
Mr.. Hoover by about % to 81.
Several conditions sustain the con-
viction sincerely held at this time by
Republican leaders that the election Will
be close, that Republican victory Is
achievable by energy and organization
and that the necessary spirit and activ-
ity are now under way.
That the Democratic tide has reached
and passed its peak of momentum is
certain. The present direction OF the
tide is toward the Republicans. though
it has not yet gathered as much momen-
tum as presumably 1t will.
The signs which in September point
ed toward decisive Democratic VIC
tory have now been modified. In all
cases in wfAch newspaper correspond
ents have surveyed the same State at
times a few weeks apart. they have
reflected rising Republican strength.
Up to September 26 one poll gave Mr..
Roosevelt votes to Mr.. Hoover's 8
In the installment of votes received
during the week ending Saturday
night the two candidates are almost ex-
actly even. Mr.. Hoover having 28,064
and Mr.. Roosevelt, 28719. Another
poll up to September 26 gave Mr.. Hoo
yer only 145 electoral votes. The cumu-
lative poll in full up to october %
gives him 18l.
Large Protest Vote.
In this poll the inquiries were sent
out in waves week apart, and the
returns can be printed close to the
day on which they are received. This
poll, therefore, can reflect trend from
day to day. The Literary Digest poll
tends to reflect a time several weeks
preceding the printing of the results.
The existence Of present trend to-
ward the Republicans is as concrete
as the earlier tide toward the Demo-
Gratis.
An explanation Of the heavy pre-
ponderance of Mr.. Roosevelt in the
early polls and gradual rise of Mr..
Hoover in subsequent ones may possibly
be found in the temper Of some voters.
Many Of those who are against Mr.
Hoover are very much against him
indeed The vote for Gov. Roosevelt
is in large part protest vote-a vote
of anger A voter in that mood is
quite certain to take quick advantage
of the earliest opportunity given him
by straw vote to express his emotion.
n SUMMARY dS VI tOOdy WOuiO coy
that substantially all Nationwide polls
that are cumulative from September up
to the present point toward Democratic
victory. There are several conditions,
however, giving comfort to the Repub-
licans. Polls which separate mems
votes from women's show women voting
for Mr.. Hoover in much larger proper
ton than men. Women figure COM
paratively little in straw votes, but will
count almost as heavily as men in the
actual voting November 8. All pclls
taken recently are more favorable to
the Republicans than those taken
earlier. That there is trend toward
Mr.. Hoover is conclusively clear. The
question is how strong this trend Is and
whether there Is time enough for 1t to
go far enough.