Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1932-03-20
FATE OFROOSEVELTBOOM
RESTS In SECOND CHOICES
New York Governor Is Held Almost Ger
tain to Have Nearly Half of Delegates
at First-Chances to Win Good.

ever other candidate or candidates he
regards as responsible for preventing
Roosevelt from winning. Whoever
| figures in the convention as conSpicu-
GUS, outstanding rival to Roosevelt viii
suffer this handicap. In other words, II
the one outstanding leader in the race,
in this case Roosevelt, does not get the
nomination, then none of the near
leading candidates, the ones who stand
second and third to Roosevelt, will be
likely to get 1t.
Cancel Each Other.
1t is for this reason that. in con-
vention in which there are two rela-
lively even leading candidates, it usu-
ally happens that neither one gets it.
In the political phrase they cancel
each other" The delegates for leading
candidate "A" get into state of mind
in which they would rather see any one
win than their rival, candidate 81;
conversely, the delegates favoring lead
ing candidate 3D." fall into a state Of
mind in which they would sooner vote
for the janitor than for candidate "a"
Everybody recalls that that Is what
happened as between McAdoo and
Smith in 1924. That is what happened
in the Republican Convention in 1920
when the two leading candidates, Gen.
Leonard Wood and Gov Lowden Of
Illinois Cancelled each other, and the
delegates of both men turned to a
dark horse, Senator Harding of Ohio.
Harding's shrewd manager Harry
Daughtery, understood perfectly the
rules Of human psychology here set
down and took advantage of them. For
his own candidate, Harding he had in
the beginning only a shoestring Of
strength; but he knew how to capita
lie it. The thing has happened again
and again in conventions in which there
are two leading candidates. This Is
now dark horses" come to the front.
The coming Democratic Convention is
not going to be of the type in which
there are two leading candidates. There
VIII be one far in the lead, Roosevelt;
the rest of the delegates will be dis
tr1buted in comparatively even numbers
among half dozen or mere men Off,
hand and without any attempt at ex-
actneSs, we may say that Smith should
have 100 to 200 delegates, Garner 100 to
200. Richie upward of 100, and then
nearly half dozen men with some
where between fifty and 100-Newton D.
Baker, ex-senator Jim Reed of Mis-
souri,, Gov. Alfalfa Bill" Murray of
Oklahoma, ex-Gov. Byrd of Virginia,
Gov. George White of Ohio and so on.
1t Is apparent that-assuming Roose-
welt loSes-the winner will be that one
to whom large number of the Roose-
welt delegates go after and If Roosevelt
is defeated. Roosevelt is certain to have
by far the largest single bloc of dele
gates, perhaps twice as many as the
next strongest candidate. It would
seem, therefore-but this Is by no
means certain-that If it Is not Roose-
welt 1t will be some one whom Roosevelt
approves, some one to whom the Roose-
welt delegates turn, after and II Roose.
welt himself fails.
In Front for Is Months.
Roosevelt has been practically an
avowed candidate for the Democratic
presidential nomination for nearly a
year and half, since after the election
Of November, 1880, in which so large q
vote was cast for him for Governor Of
New York. In that nearly Is months
of running Roosevelt has been at all
times in the front No new candidate
has arisen to dispute the leading posi-
ton with him or even to approach
him. Practically everybody would say,
as of today, that Roosevelt has in sight
fully twice as many delegates as any
other one candidate. To some degree
Roosevelt is the beneficiary of that
axiom of politics which says You
can't beat somebody with nobody f..
meaning that one active, aggressive
candidate, such as Roosevelt, cannot
ordinarily be beaten by the aggregate
of less aggressive candidates or pas
Sive ones.
That comes close to being RooSevelt's
position. He, his managers and workers
are and have been for year conduct
ing Nationwide fight. They are and
have been actively seeking the dele
gates in every State excepting only
such States as have important favorite
sons, where they refrain, in difference
to a rule of courtesy.
Roosevelt is the only one whose cam
didacy Is being pushed on a NationA
wide basis. All the others are in one
degree or another local. Garner re-
Trains from being a candidate in any
State other than his own; where, in a
few other States, ardent partiSans of
Garner have gone after the delegates.
Garner has had nothing to do with it.
Smith, so far as he can be called
activity of Smiths friends is confined
to the Eastern States and very small
number OF Western ones in which sem
timent for him is strong. Newton d.
Baker, declining to participate person.
ally in what would otherwise be a very
formidable candidacy, is hardly can
didate even in his own State, Ohio.
Ex-Gov. Cox, also of Ohio, is not
candidate even in his own State,
though he decidedly is a possibility.
Gov. Ritchies organization Is making
slight effort in a comparatively small
number OF States, not over five or six.
Gov. Alfalfa Bill" Murray of Okla
homa is q Midwestern candidate only
If he had the means and the organiza-
ton he would be a Nationwide candi-
date; as it is, Murray's strength seems
iVln b L.n
between the Mississippi River and the
Rocky. Mountains. Ex-Gov. Byrd Of
Virginia Is candidate only in his own
State and few neighboring Southern
ones. Banker Melvin Traylor of Chi
cago (who is a real dark horse posi-
bility), avowS he is not candidate at
all, and the efforts of his friends are
confined to three States in which Mr..
Traylor has lived at times and built up
personal associations. Ex-senator Jim
Reed is candidate only in his own
State, Missouri, and so on.
Anti-ROosevelt Feeling Grows.
It is quite probable that the aggre-
gate of these local candidates will
come to the convention with rather
more delegates than Roosevelt. If they
and their delegates hold together they
can prevent the nomination of Roose-
welt. They all have a motiv% for hang
ing together; 1t is the 6eld against
Roosevelt, and the anti-Roosevelt emo
ton natural in this situation will tend
to grow
Yet Roosevelt should be able to make
some holes in the aggregate strength of
the field. Mediate, for example, upon
the considerable number of Democratic
voters, surprisingly large, who are ex-
pressing preference for Gov. Murray.
Murray Is not likely to get the nomina-
ton, and the natural second choice of
these Murray delegates should be Roose-
veit. Roosevelt has come to be regard
ed as second to Murray In his liberal