Evening star., 1932-03-18

One of the queerest things success
breeds in some men is the Conviction
that they must be right in anything
they care to turn their minds to.
Not in everything they undertake
let 1t be emphasized.
There would be nothing queer about
that.
Because a man succeeds in one walk
Of life Is no reason why he knows any
thing about another.
And IL Is right there that our present
biological specimen makes hts big mis-
take.
He holds the soothing theory that on
any problem in the universe his judg-
ment is as good as any other mans,
even the man who has made speciality
of 1t.
Here Is one who has succeeded largely
in politics, let us say, who happens tc
express an opinion as to a change in
weather.
As a mere opinion, that and nothing
more, his expression would be inter-
esting, but not necessarily convincing.
He convinces himself and feels angry
If he does not carry similar convic-
ton to others.
The wind has changed to the
South" he says with deep finality
Tomorrow will be warmer"
That night Old Man Weather plays
low trick on him and sends the ther-
mometer tumbling to the cellar.
The next day friend twits the
know-it-all on his ability as a prophet.
Thought you said it was going to
get warmer he asks in all innocence,
not supposing that the other took his
pretensions at all seriously.
The would-be meteorologist almost
foams at the mouth.
Instead of admitting with a laugh
that he tried buff and nature did not
agree with him. he begins to excuse
himself as best he can in angry tones.
as If determined to scream down an
opponent.
Such tactics are old, but always good
In the hands of a skillful man. Thus
many an argument has been ended in
favor of the real loser, unfortunately
for the cause of eternal truth.
1t may be stated In passing that eter-
nal truth resides quite as often in small
matters as in large. In the history of
the human race q small word often has
been the key to mighty outcomes
Nothing is small from the universal
standpoint.
How does 1t come about that a man
interested in politics, for instance, and
in almost nothing but politics, could
think for a moment that his opinion
on weather conditions would be of any
value?
In his youth. no doubt, he heard
many nursery rhymes built on meteor
illogical themes. Mother Goose's" jim
weather from the layman's standpoint
is as easy as rhyming two words.
Many of those old sayings were based.
however, on centuries of close observa-
ton, and have a great deal Of common
sense in them.
This does not mean that they are
scientific, as we use the latter word
today.
Above all, 1t does not mean that they
have universal application.
While it Is true, for instance, that
when the wind turns to the South after
blowing from the North for several
days the likelihood is that the tenn
perature will moderate, there is moth
ing at all sure about 1t.
The real weather men," those who
have studied such things for years and
have made their living by such studies,
know that the wind is but one of sew
eral important factors in prediction.
\
Probabilities, showing tendencies, may
be derived from any Of the factors 60
ing into weather study, but any one Of
them may be upset overnight by any
other factor.
These simple facts, apparent to any
one who will think about the matter,