Evening star., 1932-08-21
BY G. Fl. ARCHAMBAULT.

BY G. H. ARCHAMBAULT
By Gable to The Star.
GENEVA, August 2o-"Will Ger
men ny, Italy and Japan leave the League
of Nations?" This question is occupy
ing Geneva despite the vacation season.
It is not the first time there has been
talk of seceders. Hitherto it has re-
mained talk. but there is always the
possibility that action will sUbstan-
tiate threats.
The intentions Of Japan will be
known first Since the beginning of
the Manchurian conflict with China it
has been rumored that, should the
final decision go against her, Japan
would leave the League. Early in Sep
tember, unless the League succeeds in
arranging yet another adjournment,
the Lytton report on Manchuria should
be discussed and acted upon, and Toxic
is understood to take the view that II
this report is favorable to China. Japan
will resign membership in the League.
All the forecasts this week agreed that
the report will be unfavorable to Japan.
But apparently resignation would not
mean severance of all connections with
Geneva. The japanese augmentation
Is subtle. Geographically, they say, we
stand between Russia and the United
States. neither of which is a member
of the League. Like them, after our
resignation, we could maintain rela-
tions with Geneva.
Germany May Withdraw.
So far as Germany is concerned, 1t
Is felt here that should Adolf Hitler
ever govern her destinies single-handed
one of his first acts might we'll be to
leave the League, seeing that his pro-
gram includes modification or abolition
of virtually everything for which the
League stands. Apart from Hitlerian
policies, Germany's attitude toward
Geneva seems conditioned more by the
disarmament conference than anything
else. If her demand for equal rights in
armaments is ignored, then her leaders
will have to decide whether or not she
has more chance Of attaining her ends
by reverting to her former status Of
non-member.
Another determining factor is likely
to be the attitude of the League towards
Germany's demand for restitution Of
her former colonies-a demand which,
it is reported, is now being prepared in
Berlin for early presentation. But there
is a strong current of opinion here that
a prime factor in the German attitude
will be the stand taken by Italy. In the
view Of competent observers Italy con-
siders that she has scant use for the
League unless it can further her aspira-
tions.
In 1928, when the italian feet occu-
pied Ccrfu, relations with Geneva were
s,e 17A HNa1 tV,f lc Iva
Italy urged Premier Mussolini to leave
the League. He refused, but a Fascist
spokesman on that occasion declared
frankly that by remaining a member
Italy could all the better precipitate
the end of the League should an occa-
sion arise necessitating such action" In
1880 Mussolini himself, in his message
for the year TX" said, who is it that
violates the covenant? Those who in
Geneva wish to maintain perpetualiy
two categories Of States-those which
are armed and those which are dis
armed"
Doubts Leagues Utility.
simultaneously it has been possible
to discern desire to make italian views
triumph in the League and an endeavor
to bring within its membership nations
likely to support those views. It was
Italy, Geneva admits, that prompted
the recent Turkish request for adnlis-
sion, as possible first step toward Rus
sian membership.
But events in Geneva recently have
gone against Italian desires. The
Franco British confidence accord was
admittedly a blow. The upshot of the
first phase of the disarmament con-
ference was another. Italo Balbo, Mus
SOlini'S air minister spoke of that
nlonstrous factory of delusions and
traps for the ingenious which goes
by the name Of the disarmament con-
ference" II Duce has laid it down
in plain words that "Fascisrn does not
believe in the possibility or the utility
of perpetual peace" Seeing that the
primary purpose of the League is to
maintain peace, it is pointed out here
that this is tantamount to saying that
Fascism does not believe in the utility
of the League.
Developments may come. soon, in Oc-
tober perhaps, when the Fascist Grand
Council meets. At its session last April
it deferred discussion ''of the problem
Of Italy's position within the League
Nothing that has happened since April
has improved that position In Italian
eyes. 49,
that Italy will seceoe, the general view
beine that she would stand to lose
more than she would gain. But it Is
expected that Italy will make great
effort to obtain radical Transformation
of the structure of the League and
the elaboration of a new covenant. II
she fails in this, then, but only then,
may she abandon membership.
,CopyriGht, 1892