The Waterbury Democrat., 1932-11-04

declared republicans voting in the poll outnumber the declared demo- crats considerably in excess of the actual relative party-strength in these states, and the magazine, therefore, notes the possibility that Roosevelt may carry them.
 | Tn no state showing a Roosevelt lead is the possibility of asswitch out that the vote in New York, 1 Kansas, Colorado and Delaware are close.
 The Literary Digest editorializes that although there are many poli- tical claims that Pennsylvania viii vote republican, no such forecast can be deduced from the poll re- turns from the Keystone state. I,s The race continues very close in Delaware, where Roosevelt has a plurality of 19S votes out Of Q total of 5.209 cast in the state. His lead was 175 votes a week ago and POP two weeks ago.
 In an analysis of "how the same voters voted in 1928, Roosevelt is his strength from former republi- CcbAlS anu T sQO PC4 SG1Ab 4AVAh 0CAAl- ocrats of four years ago. Hoover is shown obtaining sO.57 per cent of his strength from those who voted for him at the last quadren- nial election and 6.15 per cent from democratic voters of that year. Roosevent is indicated having a clear majority in thirty mine states over all six presidential candidates fYp fhA YnAI1 Unless all signs fail," l" The Liter ary Digest will state in its issue | tomorrow, unless some unexpect- | ed, eleventh-hour condition arises to reverse the nationwide trend disclosed by this great monument of freshly gathered statistics, the complete poll will be interpreted by many practical men and women
 of all parties as a presage of
 Roosevelt victory.
 '.If that practical judgment #
 borne out by the event. the demo- cratic victory on election day will
 surely be a sweeping one. Let our arithmetical readers apply the Hoover and Roosevelt percentages 1 to a popular vote approximatine l that Of 192S-say, 36,00O,OOO--and lthey will see that the possibilities I disclosed by our vast sampling op.
 eration include what is popularly
 known as landslide.
 Tn wild year like this. how
 ever, many sagacious observers will
 refuse to bank upon appearances
 however convincing. As for The Digest, 1t draws no conclusions
 from the results of it's vast distribu. tion of twenty million ballots. True i to it's historic non-partisan policy or 'omni-partisan,' as some editoi described 1t in 1928-we supply
 our readers with the facts to tho best of our ability, and leave then I to draw their own conclusions.
 "We make no claim to infallibil. ity. We did not coin the phrase
 'uncanny accuracy which has beer
 so freely applied to our polls. W. know only too well the Limitations
 of every straw vote, however enor' nous the sample gathered. how.
 ever scientific the method. Il would be miracle if every state ol the forty-eight behaved on cleo 1 ton day exactly as forecast.
 Here we come to the impor' taht problem of Massachusetts and I Rhode Island. These two states arr lin the Hoover column of the poll They were also in the Hoover col
 umn Of our 1928 poll, with stil
 larger republican majorities. bu both states were carried by Smith
 History repeats itself. and tha'
 variation of our 1928 poll is likel, I to happen again1n 1882. We have l boiled sthetwo states In exactly thu
 same way that we polled them foul years ago. A study of the returns
 in relation to the official vote oi
 1928. and also to the ballot dec. I larafions Of how the same voters
 voted in 1928, convinces us tha'
 in those states our ballots havt
 somehow failed to come back 1T
 adequate quantity from large
 bodies of democratic voters.
 For these reasons we consider
 that Massachusetts and Rhode Island may be expected to appeai
 in the Roosevelt column on eIectior might.
 Tt is further possible that Con, necticut. New Hampshire. and New Jersey, which also give evidence oi having masses of silent demo cratic yoters---ssilent' as far ai | straw polls are eoncerned-wii