Evening star., 1932-01-03

~ eSting and SO significant as the
A. Y European reperCuSSion 1t pro-
Guced. Not since the United
states Senate rejected the Treaty of
Versailles has there been such an un-
expected shock to foreign statesmen.
And what is odd and not unamuSing is
that European opinion again was mis-
led in precisely the same fashion. or
rather, Tnisread the signs. in the ideno
tical manner it did 13 years ago.
At the Paris Peace Conference it
was impossible for any American to
persuade his European friends that
there was any doubt of the ability of
Woodrow Wilson to carry majority Of
the country with him for the League
OF Nations project. After last June
all Europe clurg to the belief that
under the leadership Of Herbert Hoover
American opinion had at last accepted
the view that debt cancellation and
reparations abolition were the inescapa-
BILE steps in economic and financial res
toration.
1t is true that the Senate finally re-
tected the Wilson program, while Con-
gresS has adopted the Hoover mora
torium, but the rider tackled to the
moratorium resolution by the House and
adopted by the Senate. and the char
acter of the debate on the proposal
served to warn Europe that sentiment
in favor Of cancellation or even of any
real scaling down of debts was re-
stricted to a politically inpotent, If i'm
pressive, minority.
Shock for Europe.
It is hardly possible to eXaggerate
the shock this revelation constituted
for Europe. 1t was a clear evidence
of the fact that during the life OF the
present Congress, that is until March 4,
1888, there exists no prospect whatever
of clearing up the worlds financial and
economic mess in accordance with
European prescriptions.
The shock did not come from the
fact that the moratorium itself was
challenged. Europe was fully aware
that since no money was available to
pay debts. that issue was purely aca-
demic The real disillusionment arose
from the circumstance that during all
the years since the end of the World
War Europe has never ceased to be-
lieve that in the end the United States
would cancel debts.
AS a consequence all the various ar
rangements land notably the Dawes
and Young plans) have been regarded
as temporary affairs designed to tide
over the period REQUIRED for the Amer
ican people and Congress to arrive at
the state of mind Europe always eX-
pected would come sooner or later In
secret conversations at all international
gatherings since 1919 there has been
the frank recognition that all adjust
ments were provisional until America
came to see the question eye for eye
with Europe.
Last Summer when the Hoover mora
torium was announced, from one end
Of Europe to the other there was an
outburst of Joy, an reclamation OF the
long-awaited hour. When France halt
ed the process, the burden of European
denunciation was based on the assump-
ton that French obstinacy would change
the American mood. Even today the
German press bitterly aSsails France as
responsible for the present attitude OF
Congress.
Very Certain Consequences.
But it is essential to perceive that
the disillusionment Of Europe must
have very certain consequences. Eu-
rope has been waiting for l3 years TO
make a final adjustment of the finan-
cial consequences of the war 1t has
been waiting, hoping. watching for the
moment when American opinion would
riuen to the necessary point. Now,
while it is clear that American opinion
has not ripened, swaiting is no longer
possible.
Hitler and Bruening in Germany
that is, the revolutionary and the rul-
ing leadership-have proclaimed their
definite agreement on the question OF
reparations payments. For all prac-
tical purposes Germany-the whole
German people-have repudiated the
reparations clauses of the treaty of Ver-
sailles. To attempt to revive them
would be to provoke a domestic reVolu-
ton in Germany. Moreover, the for
eign experts passing upon the German
situation are agreed Germany cannot
pay for at least two years, and all save
the French experts place the time as
much more distant when German ca
pacity might be restored.
What then remains for the various
countries which owe us on account OF
allied debts? Obviously, they must at
the end Of the Hoover moratorium year
face the alternative between repuola-
tion and payment. 1t is true that un-
der their debt agreements they can still
seek moratoriums, pleading temporary
fncapacitv to pay. Thus for orle1
time further they can evade the main
Issue of reputation.
From the very start of the whole debt
settlement episode the conception OF the
European nations owing us money has
been to collect from Germany to pay
us Just as long as we insisted upon
being paid And for six years they
were able to do that because we vera
ready and willing to lend Germany the
necessary money to pay them. Europe
believed that when we had lent Ger
many vast sums we would be willing 10
cancel war debts in order to collect
these private accounts. Europe saw in
the Hoover moratorium the proof posi-
tive that we had at last decided To
sacrifice the governmental for the prl-
vate debts Europe knows better now
but its situation is hardly happy.
II the United States will not cancel