Evening star., 1932-08-25
ELECTION OUTCOME .
|. STILL SPECULATIVE.
Trade Recovery, if Sustained,
Conceded Best Hoover AS
set-AWait Maine Vote.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

Neither of the two party organt-
cations has been able yet to assemble
any concrete signs from which 1t IS
possible to make sure inferenceS about
the outcome of the election. Both are
awaiting the Maine election in Septem-
Der as the first index.
Both say unusual trends of sentiment
are under way. The Republicans claim
and the Democrats admit that Presi-
dent Hoover is helped greatly by the
marked beginning of recovery from
business depression. Hardly any ex-
perienced politician in either party and
hardly any observer would deny that
the recovery if it should go far enough
by November s would settle the election
and settle it in favor of Mr.. Hoover.
What politicians are now specializing
about, and business leaders to an even
greater degree, is the extent to which
recovery may 60 during the IL weeks
that remain before election day. 1t is
possible for the new momentum to go
a considerable distance. The late Sem
ator Dwight Morrow of New Jersey,
speaking from a Republican point of
view admitted the bearing Of this de-
preston on the presidential election
now ahead of us. He said the party
which got the benefit of the rain would
also be obliged to take the blame for
the drought. That was when Mr.. Nor
row said it, and remained until a few
weeks ago, the fundamental factor af-
fecting this campaign, affecting 1t, OF
course, adversely to the Republicans.
Expected Rapid Recovery.
About the same time Mr.. Morrow,
who was even more wise in business
than in politics, made another obserVa-
ton equally pertinent He said the ma
ture of this depression was such that
recovery from it, once the turn came,
could be sensationally rapid. How fast
an upturn can sometimes be is sug-
gested by the fact that twice within
the past 10 years the prices of three
StapleS-corn, cotton and wheat-have
each doubled within the space of
year. In spite of these precedents, it
would take hardy kind of hope to ex-
pect the country to be in really strong
tide Of recovery by as early as the No
vember election.
There is, however, a condition now
existing which greatly helps President
Hoover, apart from the extent to which
recovery goes before November. There
Is spreading through the country SEN
tlment which looks upon the President
as man who has been through long,
hard war and is now happily coming to
the end of it. While the sentiment is
instructive, there are abundant facts to
support it.
The part of this depression which
took the form of successive shocks from
Europe, beginning about March. 1881, |
has had the nature of war. Mr.. Hoover
and the financial heads of the Govern !
ment have looked upon it as a war, |
have spoken of it among themselves |
in terms of war and have fought it |
as war. Until about last May they |
were obliged to fight on the defensive. !
Since about the first of July they have
taken the offensive The President |
and the fiscal officers of the Govern
ment have for some six weeks been
aggresSively pushing an offensive CAM
paign co-ordinated along many lines.
Public May See Point.
While persons close to the situation |
can see it as warfare, the public gen.
orally has not been able. to recognize |
the spectacular quality that gives
glamour to actual war. The country,
however, has lately come to see it
vaguely in that light and 10 see Pres
1dent Hoover entering upon success
after long fight that demanded high
resources OF generalship.
It is quite possible for the country, |
sn the present emotion Of release from |
fear, to enter into mood Of generous |
recognition which would do Mr.. Hoover |
more good than figures having to do
with prices and volume Of business. |
If Mr.. Hoover should become the bene- |
ficiary of glow of national admira- |
ton for one who fought a good fight, !
that sentiment would settle the elec- |
ton more surely than higher prices |
for wheat or larger volume of freight |
car loadings Something Of that kind |
Is under way. 1t was apparent at
the time OF Mr.. Hoover's acceptance |
speech and was accelerated by the |
substance and manner of what Mr.. |
Hoover said at that time. If this |
development grows. 1t will become by |
Gar the most decisive factor in the |
&arnpaign.