Evening star., 1932-08-03
NEW YORK STATE
POLITICAL PIVOT
Democrats Declared to Need
Vote in Order to Have
Election Chance.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

The only spot where conspicuous mo-
tion has developed in this presidential
campaign SO far Is the effort OF Gov.
Roosevelt to carry New York and the
other doubtful Eastern States.
From the Democratic point Of view
it is almost imperative that they do
this. On paper it is possible to figure
out result in which the Democrats
could win the presidency without carry
ing New York. In actuality, this is so
difficult and unlikely that no prudent
Democratic candidate or campaign
manager would attempt it.
The converse of this is that if the
Democrats win New York, they have
good chance to win the election. In
every campaign In which the Demo-
Gratis have carried New York, they have
won the presidency. The only excep-
ton was Tilden in 1876, and many his
torians claim Tilden really won the
presidency.
From this set OF conditions, it fol-
lows that the effort to carry New York
and other Eastern States will be the
keystone Of the Democratic campaign.
1t is idle to assume that Roosevelt will
be radical or anything else in order
to carry the West. In the Democratic
party, the South and West can nomi-
nate, but cannot elect. As the pressure
Of the campaign increases, the Demo-
Gratis will increasingly do the things
and take the positions adapted to carry
ing New York and the States that go
with 1t, New Jersey, Massachusetts,,
Connecticut and Rhode Island. The
only way for a Democrat to carry those
States is to be 100 per cent wet and
to be conservative. As the Importance
80 Avl@r "a haR
and more apparent, 50 will the Demo-
cratic campaign become more wet and
more conservative.
Spreading Harmony.
AS q preliminary to having any
chance at all to carry New York and
the East, Gov. Roosevelt and his cam
paign manager, James A. Farley, have
been placating dissatisfied Democratic
leaders In that territory. These steps
constitute about the only real activity
of the campaign so far.
When the Democratic National Con-
vention nominated Roosevelt, the three
principal leaders in the East. eX-Gov.
Smith of New York, Frank Hague of
New Jersey and Gov. Joseph Ely OF
Massachusetts, went home in conSpicu-
ous disgruntlement. They were deeply
displeased by the nomination Of Roose-
welt, and it was salt to their wounds
that the nomination had been brought
about by a surprise maneuver practiced
by the two men, William G. McAdoo
and william r. Hearst, who, in all the
public life of the country, are most
deeply repugnant to eX-Gov. Smith and
to Smiths allies.
Since the convention Roosevelt and
his campaign manager have won public
adherence from two Of the deeply dis
gruntled leaders. 1t is generally under
stood that Gov. Roosevelts radio
speech Saturday night was designed
largely to commit himself publicly to
the support of wet and other views
which would give to Gov. Ely Of Mas
sachusetts justification for announcing
support of Roosevelt. After Roose-
velt's speech, Ely made the announce
ment of support.
With another of the three recalci-
trant Eastern leaders, Frank Hague OF
New Jersey, negotiations were conducted
by Farley, Gov. Roosevelt'S campaign
manager, and Hague has publicly an
nounced support of Roosevelt. The
other Of the three disappointed Eastern
leaders, ex-Gov. Smith Of New York
! has as yet made no gesture OF support
made by Ely and Hague.
Question Of Radicals.
The things necessary to do to placate
these leaders, and to carry the East
must necessarily be somewhat repug-
nant to the Western radicals, such as
Senator Wheeler of Montana, who had
much to do with getting the nomina-
ton for Roosevelt Nevertheless the
things will be done.
The radicals such as Wheeler OF
Montana and Senator George w. Nor
riS of Nebraska want Roosevelt to be
President. The only way to make him
President Is to carry the East. and the
only way to carry the East Is to satisfy
these powerful Eastern leaders. In these
Eastern States the Democratic party is
a tightly organized unity swung by
leaders Roosevelt as radical, or even
under the milder term, progressive, ="
There is radicalism in the East and
there will be more Of it this year than
ever before Eastern radicalism, how
ever, scorns both the old parties and
expresses itself in voting for the avow-
edly radical parties, the Socialists and
Communists. This year the Socialist
party in the East and in the Nation as
a whole, will poll a very large vote The
conservative vote in the East will be di-
vided between Gov. Roosevelt and PreSi-
dent Hoover, and Roosevelt must get
more than half of it in order to win.
Plan Byrd Act Discussion.
CHERRYDALE, Va, August 8 (Spe-
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