Evening star., 1932-02-07
BY MARK SULLIVAN.


ton continues as simple, its
outcome as sure as 1t has always
Il been. That Mr.. Hoover will be
1enominated has always been
sure; it was sure even before Mr.. Cool
idge firmly declared himself out of the
picture-because it was certain that
Mr.. Coolidge would do just that thing.
Nor was the certainty of Mr.. Hoovers
denomination affected by the talk about
Dawes, for it was inevitable Dawes
would laugh such talk out of the head
lines. The only doubt about Mr. Hoo
yer is whether he will have all the
1,057 delegates in the convention, or
whether a negligible score or two may
be for some other candidates.
In the Democratic field the outcome
is such that no prudent person would
try to predict Gov. Franklin Roose-
welt of New York is farther in the lead
than most of his opponents and critics
realize He is the only candidate whose
campaign is organized on Nationwide
basis Almost it is true to say, Roo6e-
welt is the only candidate running in
States other than his own. Ritchle Of
Maryland is the only one in whose be-
half there is organization outside Of his
own State, and Ritchie'S organization
to be negligible Excepting these two,
all the other ayowed candidates. aspir-
ants and possibilities restrict their eff
forts to their own States. Roosevelt
is almost beneficiary of that sound
rule of practical politics which says,
You can't beat somebody with no
body"
Endorsed by States.
The work Of organization on Ma
ton wide basis in behalf of Roosevelt
has been under way for nearly year.
and the fruits of it are now beginning
to appear. AS the State primaries ap-
proach, the official Democratic organi
zation IN State after State indorses
Roosevelt--and once that is done the
opposition to Roosevelt q any zuch
State will have almost insuperable diff
ficulty True, the States in which
Roosevelt has been thus Endorsed are
small; the first examples have been
Vermont and North Dakota. But in
some IA other small States the official
Democratic organization is ready to
take the same step. This is pOrtentouS
in itself and even more significant in
what it SymbOliZeS. II means that
RcoseVeltS friends through something
like a year of work, with no other can
didateS active, have succeeded in get
ting the support of the dominant Dem
ocratic leaders and workers in many
States and in a very large number of
counties The aggregate of this is very
formidable. If it were in the Repub-
lican party, where a candidate wins the
nomination by getting a majority of
the delegates, Roosevelt would almost
have the nomination 'cinched." In the
Democratic party, however. with its
tWo-thirds rule, it has never happened
that any amount Of preliminary or
ganization could quite make the nomi-
nation sure, except in the case of Presi-
dent Wilson, when he was a candidate
to succeed himself and had no rival
to speak of. Under the Democratic
rule. one-third the delegates can veto
a nomination-and RooSevelt's rivals
opponents and critics will command
much more than the necessary one.
third. Whether they will exercise their
veto. whether they will keep the nomi-
nation away from Roosevelt. or let him
have 1t, depends on conditions at the
time of the convention. 1t will depend
in part on what the issues of the cleo
ton, as between the Democratic and
Republican candidates, is to be.
The outcome of this years presiden-
tial election and most of the other
major events of this political year will
be, determined by-dreary phrase, but
potent in every aspect of politics and
business-the price level-that is, the
price Of commodities. wheat. cotton,
copper-everything, including wages.
From price level, everything in this
years politics starts. Price level will
determine the platforms. whether there
will be a powerful third party and
which and who will win the presidency.
Compared to this one dominating in
f1uence, price level, ali the commotion
about ndidateS-Whether Franklin
Roosevelt will be the Democratic can
dlcate, what eX-GoV. Smith will do,
whether Hiram Johnson will try for the
Republican nomination or lead a third
party, whether Gov. Alfalfa Bill Muir
ray Of Oklahoma will get his economic
views into the Democratic platform and
come near the nomination-all that is
the mere village gossip of personalities,
compared to the fundamental influence
OF price level. Price level is the primal
cause Of the political forces and pas
sions of this political year. To under
stand price level is the A B c lesson
of this years politics
To begin-the price level of commod-
tiles is very low. 1t has gone, as an
average, from an index figure of 125
in 1929 to less than today. One eX-
ample, used here because it is concrete,
is the price of wheat Wheat has gone
down from 81 in 1929 to so cents today
Because the price of wheat is low.
farmers cannot pay their mortgages. A
typical farmer in 1929 put a mortgage
OF $4,000 on his farm-that is, a mort
gage for 5000 bus Is Of wheat at the
price wheat then was Today he is
called upon to pay back 10000 bushels
of wheat. He cannot do it, If he is
pressed he must lose his farm If he is
not to lose his farm he must have
relief.
And the question what form relief
is to take. or whether relief comes at
all, is at the bottom of all the politics
Of this year. The farmer. of course, is
but one example; it is the same with
corporations having bond issues, with
city home owners having mortgages on
their homes. with borrowers owing
notes at the bank. You can't pay dol
lar debts with 50-cent commodities.
Out of this situation must come one
of two courses. The alternatives are
(a) Either widespread inability to
pay debt, widespread foreclosure wide
spread distress, widespread resentment
followed by radical demands in the
coming presidential campaign.
(b) Or relief of debtors through ac-
ton of Congress.
Debtors and Congress.
What has so far occurred IN Con-
gress about relief of debtors is only
beginning. This problem will within a
| .Ir l,A ,r,,N att
Congress 1t will continue to be the
princiapl issue till the end of Congress
Depending on what Congress does about
it. it will be the principal influence in
the presidential campaign.
Relief of debtors by Congress can
take one of two forms:
Either (A) Extension of debt or par
tial forgiveness of debt by legal mora
torium, or OBJ Increase in the guam
tity of currency. which will raise the
price level: raise, among other COM
mNditieS 50-cent wheat to 81 wheat