Evening star., 1932-02-28
CAMPAIGN SPECULATION
CENTERS ON DEMOCRATS
Seven Candidates. Each With Real
Chance of Nomination, Constitute Field.
Hoover Unopposed in G. o. P.

that are necessary to nominate in the
Democratic convention.
Five hundred is the high estimate OF
RooSeveltS strength, the estimate OF
RooSevelt's managers and partiSanS.
Independent estimates assign Roosevelt
anywhere from 500 down to 300. Three
hundred would be. under tho ciTcum-
stances, a weak showing for Roosevelt,
considering the energy and preten-
tiousnesS Of the campaign in his behalf
and the length Of time it has been
under way.
Whether Roosevelt gets 500 or 300
depends much on eX-Gov. Smith.
Broadly speaking, every delegate that
Smith gets is delegate that RooSe-
velt would have got had Smith not
entered. The test of Roosevelt's for
tunes is in the Eastern States. where
he and Smith are substantially the
get practically all the delegates in the
Eastern primaries, and Smith very few
in that event Roosevelt would seem
to have the band wagon surely. The
| first test will come in New Hampshire
March 8. New Hampshire will be a
barometer. at once. of Roosevelt's for
tunes and of how large a part Smith
is to play.
II any one doubts that ex-Gov.
Smith is possibility, let him reflect
upon the opening words of Smiths
recent announcement:
If the Democratic National Con-
vention, after careful consideration,
| should decide that it wants me to lead,
l will make the fight"
Compare that with Calvin Coolidge'S
statement in 1927. Il do not choose
to run" Suppose Mr.. Coolidge at that
| time, instead of saying what he did,
had said IF the convention wants
me will make the fight" Would
that have made Mr. Coolidge a can
didate in 1928? And would Mr.. Cool
idge have been nominated?
For that matter, suppose Mr.. Cool
idge in this present year. 1882, should
adopt ex-Gov. Smiths words. Suppose
Mr.. Coolidge should today say (as
he will never Say) IF the convention
wants me, 1 will make the fight"
Would that make Mr.. Coolidge a can
didate? In words of contemporary
classics, "Oh, boyl"
Smith is a candidate. He is not
as he says In the body of his state
ment, making a pre-convention CAM
paign to secure the support of dele
gates" But his other words. IF the
convention wants me l Will make the
fight" gives liberty to every Smith
partisan in the country. Every Smith
partisan Is free to express his emo
tions and convictions by working to
elect Smith delegates And the num-
Der OF Smith partisanS, Smiths per-
sonal following. Is very large. It is
the largest personal following, without
question, Of any individual in the
Democratic party. Smith has a per-
sonal following in the sense that
| Woodrow Wilson had, and William
Jennings Bryan.
Almost universally, the public fails
TO recognize Smiths personal strength.
After the election in 1928 the head
lines said "Smith gets States, Hoover
| 40, or smith gets 81 electoral votes,
Hoover 444." That looked like q severe
defeat for Smith, and, measured in
States and electoral votes, it was 0
severe defeat.
But measure it in terms of popular
vote, as the politicians and the experts
did, after the returns were all in and
the public began to think about other
things.
Phenomenal Following.
Smiths following. as expressed in
the vote for him for President in 1928,
is really phenomenal. Smith as the
Democratic candidate In 1928 got not
far from twice as many votes as any
other Democratic candidate had ever
received. The figures are: