Evening star., 1932-11-14
EXPECTS NEW HIGHS
in u. S. COMMERCE
in FOREIGN FIELD
Feiker'S Study of Trends In
dicates Greater Expansion
of Exports Is Coming.
HOLDS BUSINESS FEARS
LARGELY UNF0UNDED
Tendencies of Trade Since 1885
Are Shown in Annual Report
of Bureau Director.

Based on a close study of trends,
Director Frederick M. Feiker of the
Commerce Departments Bureau of For
eign and Domestic Commerce predicted
today that commerce and industry are
on their way to new high levels.
The prediction was contained in his
annual report and to which he added
that consideration of all factors pro-
vided ample reason for optimism, re-
assurance and determination
Citing the report of the commissioner
Of labor in 1886 for proof, Feiker as
serted that during depression fear of
the future developed and after every
depression that fear has been dissi-
pated by undreamed-of improvement.
Discounts Manufacturer Fear.
The director cited the current fear
of the manufacturing field that grow
ing containment of nations would
wreck them, but discounted that fear
on the basis of post-depresSion records
in every case.
"Since 1885 we have gone through
many periods of prosperity and ad-
versity," he said. I'VE have recovered
from each period Of depression with re-
newed vigor and determination and
have risen to new heights of accom-
plishment and prosperity"
There Is no reason to believe that
history will not repeat ITSELF" he added.
THE great danger is that we will too
soon forget the painful lessons forced
upon us in the last three years. If we
are to profit by these lessons there will
be a great need for sound thinking and
the development of sound policies in the
years just ahead. Such thinking and
such policies require unbiased leader
ship and an ever-increasing supply Of
reliable facts. They will also require
the widest utilization Of all agencies at
our command, properly co-ordinated
and working in harmony with each
other"
Sees Hope for Exports.
Referring to the fear of self-sufici-
ency and self f-contAinment among for
eign nations constituting this country's
export market, Feiker declared that In.
creased industrialization on the part Of
other nations does not necessarily re-
duce the volume Of exports from the
United States.
While he observed there had been
progressive industrialization of many of
the backward countries, he insisted that
the volume Of international business in
fabricated products was not appreciably
cut by such modernization.
1T Is extremely unlikely" he said,
that each foreign country will be able
to supply all or even nearly all of its
own needs in manufacturing and semi
manufactured articles within any period
Of time now subject to calculation"
The Commerce Department official
said that many Of the countries had
aided their industries and that there
had been ready access to capital in
some of them, but he gave as his opin-
ion that there would be a great retrac-
ing Of steps in most countries, particu-
larly in Europe.
Many Cannot Go On.
Inherent conditions assure that many
industries now serving their respective
countries cannot go on when the inter-
national industrial machine Is operating
at full speed, he said. Further, 1t was
his belief that the zenith Of manufac-
turing. induced by the World War. has
been passed in the bulk Of the foreign
nations.
Adverting to the reason for reassur-
ance, Feiker said there was no reason
why American specialties," as automo-
miles, radio apparatus, Office equip
ment, sewing machines, refrigerators,
canned goods and silk hosiery, will not
go back into normal channels. The di-
rector holds that the United States
occupies position Of unquestioned emf
nence In the production of such articles.
"As conditions throughout the world
improve" he continued, 1--WE shall see
new and previously undeveloped mar
kets presenting themselves as fertile
fields for cultivation-regionS like Africa,
Asia, the Malay Archipelago, the un-
developed interior Of South America.
Their emergence from primitive life
brings buying in greater quantity Of
the articles that are indispensable to
civilization.
Reason for Optimism.
"It would seem, therefore, that when
one considers carefully all the favorable
and unfavorable elements likely to af-
feet the future course of American ex-
port trade, there is ample reason for
optimism, reinsurance and determina-
tion. With steadfastness and energy,
we should stand by the ship"
Felker issued a warning against GER
tain practices, principally ll-considered
price cutting. He admonished that
there was perhaps no one thing caus-
ing more grief to American business and
to business everywhere than the fallacy
of volume. In this connection, he said,
the time-tried rule was that volume is
grand if it were volume at profit.
TURKEY SUPPLY AMPLE