Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-05-13
AYRES SHOWS TURN
/! IN U. S. INDUSTRY
Cycles for 78 Years Pictured
/. in Diagram, With Curve
y Now Moving Upward.
BY EDWARD c. STONE.


Prepared by Col. Leonard P. Ayres
the Cleveland Trust Co. has sent out
long desk sheet diagram showing the
business cycles of American industry
during the past 70 years. Starting witt
1854. the figures below the diagram
show for each month during this lonG
period the per cent by which industrial
activity rose above normal or declined
below it. The course OF wholesale
prices is also included, the average fol
1929 being taken to equal 100.
During this long span OF years there
have been Is well defined series OF de-
pressions, of which the present one l
the most severe. In January, 1881
industrial activity declined to 28:3 pei
cent below normal. The next IoWes'
record is that of the depression OF 1871
which reached o low point OF ~ PEI
cent below normal. None OF the pre-.
Hious depressions carried the RECORDS OF
Industrial activity below 70 per cen!
below normal. The chart shows tnat
by far the longest depression was tnaI
OF the 70S, which lasted lot nearly Oh
years, .-.
ries the detailed record OF American
business cycles back nearly 70 years
further than does any previous similar
dia9rem-. II makes possible comperi.
sons of business cycles prior 10 ano
following the Civil War and also ou I'm
the World War. During the Clvll WA
wholesale prices rose to the same os
gree that they did during the WoIiU
Waf and then entered upon long oe.
cline, much as they have during 'iAe
wears since the recent war.
what will the diagram show during
the rest of this year and In 1887 Inc
wholesale price line is still gong ooWn
Rut the black ink marking the business
cycle has turned upward, very Slowly
hut upward. Business was on 283 pei
cent in January, 25 per cent In FeDEu-
ary and 23.4 per cent in Marcn.
Every other depression eventually mas
naSsed To looks as II this one would
be no exception. Every month In 1881
showed a decline. The turn came N
january, 1881, the diagram and the IN
dex figures indicate.
Col. Ares backs up the claims Of
many other economists that the reeoV-
ery is already under way. Another
golden age is getting nearer every day'
how near being the big problem.
CAPITAL Traction Doing Better.
II is reported in the financial district
that the Capital Traction April earnings
statement will show substantial gain
in net compared with the net income
In April, 1880.
This viii be gratifying news to the
large number of traction stockholders
in Washington who have been watching
the action Of the stock so closely since
the first of the year. What Is stu more
important than the April report. WHEN TIt.Si
will soon be filed with the Public Uti!l-
ties Commission, is the fact that the
company has earned its dividend during
the first four months of this year.
Traction is now paying "a year:
Selling at "a, 1t Yields IL per cent. II
it can continue to earn its 81 dividend,
the attitude" Of the public toward the
stock Is almost certain to undergo q
marked change. AS the prices OF COM
modities continue to work lower, reduc-
ing the cost of steel rails, coal and other
commodities which the street car com
pany has to have, tie cost Of operation
is proportionately cut down.
What private autos and buses VIII DO
to the street car traffic during the rest
OF the year remains to be seen. The
detailed figures on April earnings are
being awaited with great interest.
Exchange HonOrs I. A. Fleming.
Members of the Washington stock
Exchange today adopted the following
resolutions on the death Of I. A. Flem-
ing, the same being prepared by Sec
Rotary Y. z. Booker:
Resolved, That the members Of the
Washington Stock Exchange express
our profound sorrow at the death of
I. A. Fleming; affecticnately known by
US all as Pop"
Dean Of the financial writers Of
Washington for the past 20 years, he
numbered among his friends the city'S
leaders Of finance and industry.
Although in his articles were recorded
many scoops Of important events in
the city's financial affairs, he never
betrayed a confidence, never made an
enemy and died as he had lived, pos
Sessing the respect and love Of all
whose good fortune it had been to
know him.
We extend our sympathy to his be-
reaved family and direct the secretary
to spread these resolutions in the
minutes Of the Washington Stock Elk
change as permanent memorial.
Savage on World Conditions.
Francis M. Savage, former Washing
ton banker. and Mrs. Savage have
reached home from a trip around the
world. Mr.. Savage states that condi-
tons are unsettled almost everywhere.
On the steamer between Hongkong and
Canton the second and third class pas
sengers are locked behind iron bars to
prevent bandits from taking passage In
order to loot the passengers. There is
and her good people are being widely
exploited. he says:
Japan rigidly excludes bolShevisn,
Mr.. Savage says, but the bolshevists ar
ranged for a radio station outside the
country in order to spread their propa-
ganda among dissatisfied people. Japan
encourages Shintoism largely because
It breathes a spirs 4 loyalty to gov
ernmental authoE@ sp% keeps a 100000
standing arE-1 and 3 .z-Ee reserve army
largely because of anxiety over Russia.
Ghandi whom Mr.. Savage met per-
sonally, possesses rare ability and by his
doctrines Of passive resistance has
doubtless prevented a great deal OF
bloodshed during the preEent depression
in India, in the bankers opinion.
Mr. Savage made his first trip around
the world % wears ago. Since that time
living conditions have greatly improved
he declares. Apparently, there is ample
to eat in most of the places he visited
but a lack Of gold with which to pur'
chase many necessities and Injuries.
Financial District Comment.
Stockholders OF Selected Industries
Inc, have approved the contract VIII
the Tri-Contiental Corporation. undeI
with Tri-Continental will supply In
vestment advice and service to Selected
Industries. Five partners Of j. & w
Seligmsn g. Co, have been elected u
the Selected Industries board, accord
ing TO announcement by Frank P
Morse. head ~ the Washington ONCE
Tri-Continental stock is quite widely
held here.
Riggs National Bank stock sold al
375 and 376-un the Washington Stool
Exchange today American Security &