Evening star., 1931-04-05
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

presidential election is due
i chiefly to Democratic expecta-
ton Of victory. 1t is among the
Democrats that most of the stir is oc-
curing; the Democratic nomination is
believed to be valuable and there is
competition for it, public interest and
curiosity as to who will get it
AS of today the man who is far In the
lead for the Democratic nomination is
Gov. Franklin Roosevelt of New York.
AS of today, indeed, Roosevelt is almost
nominated. To say this is very far
from saying Mr. Roosevelt is sure to be
nominated at the convention which Is
Is months ahead of us.
On the contrary the very fact the
New York Governor is so far "out in
front" at SO early a phase of the cam
paign works to his detriment. Many
hurdles will arise, or be shrewdly placed,
in Gov. Roosevelt's path which he must
avoid or get over il he Is to keep the
leadership he has today.
The thing that gives Gov. Roosevelt
his great advantage is, paradoXically,
the tolerance felt for him by dry Demo-
cratic leaders in the South and West,
The dry Democrats are willing to ac-
cept the New York Governor because
they regard his wetneSs as being not
particularly aggressive. More than that,
the dry Democratic leaders see in Gov.
Roosevelt a shield or compromise
through which they may escape the
one thing they most dread.
Wet Plank Big Factor.
What the dry Democrats want to
avoid, at practically any cost, is the in
Sertion in the Democratic platform of
the wet plank proposed by Chairman
RaSkob or any variation of that wet
plank. They think that by accepting
Gov. Roosevelt they may forestall the
wet plank. They have hope that Gov.
Roosevelt may side with them in oppo-
sition to the wet plank.
The New York Governor has already
helped them in the direction OF side
tracking the wet plank by the attitude
he took at the meeting Of the Demo-
craft National Committee last month
when Chairman Raskob thrust his wet
plank into the foreground. On that oc-
casion Gov. Roosevelt and the official
representatives of New York State in
the convention gave immense help to
the Southern drys in resisting the wet
plank.
The Southern Democrats make the
clearest of distinctions between wet
plank and a wet candidate. A wet can
didate they ARE willing to accept, or at
ever, they regard as intolerable. The
reason is that they feel that q wet
plank IN the platform of the party
would have the effect of committing
them personally and would embarraSS
them in their personal campaigns for
reelection as Senators or Representa-
tiveS AS to a wet candidate, however,
they feel they can say that the wetness
of the presidential candidate does not
affect their personal positions.
Wet Leaders May Oppose.
Probably the principal hurdle in the
path of Gov Roosevelt is the possibility
that wet leaders of the North and East,
including Chairman RaSkob and posi-
bly, Former Gov. Smith, may turn
against him because of his too great
willingness to stand with the South in
a middle of -the-road position on prohi-
bition. Whoever is to be the Demo-
cratic candidate for the Presidency, the
party'S expectation of victory in the
general election rests largely upon the
condition Of business.
BY the same rule, the present large
ness of Democratic hope rests upon the
present apparent prolongatton of busi-
ness depression, upon the belatedness
of recovery. It became a general feel
the business year approached on April
/, that hope of permanent revival ire
vival, that is, other than the seasonal
Spring one) must be deferred This
feeling may be wrong. It may be that
business recovery is under way.
The early stage of any business re-
covery goes by fits. and starts. In any
event, according to habitual business
thinking, If an expected or hoped-for
business recovery fails 10 appear in the
Spring of any year, it is likely to be de-
ferred until late in the year. ConSe-
quently it seems likely that until Mid
summer at least there will continue to
be public psychology tending to SuS-
tain Democratic hopes for victory in
the presidential election next year. The
question becomes, how late can the
business recovery be If it is to be in
time to rescue the Republicans?
1t can come pretty late and still serve
the Republicans. In the famous cam
paign of 1896, there came, in August of
that year, only 10 weeks before the
presidential election, q substantial rise
in the price of wheat. That was
enough to blur the hopes Of Bryan and
the Democrats. There were other fac
tors to be sure, in that 1895 election,
but the rise in wheat was alone enough
to make it impossible for Bryan to
carry certain MidweStern States which
were indispensable to national victory
for Bryan, and which he would have
carried but for the fortuitous rise in
the price of wheat.
Suspected Manipulation.
Bryan at the time suspected the rise
in a single commodity to be a manip-
ulated one, brought about by Mark
Hanna, manager of the Republican
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