Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-25
1881 PREDICTIONS
HELD OF VALUE
Hupp's President Says Sta
biIity Rests on PubIic's
Frame of Mind.
BY DU BOTS YOUNG,


Future business predictions during
such trying periods as We have been
passing through are normally of little
value. Yet business predictions this
year, it seems to me, have more valid
purpose than ever before, because ma
tional stability now rests largely on the
public's frame of mind.
Being an automobile man, would
rather confine my remarks to the auto
motive industry. But the interdepenu-
ence of this industry with general busi-
ness is of such Importance that both
must be included. l know of no better
time nor place to extend our thoughts
and ideas in public forum than during
the Thirty-first Annual National Auto
mobile Show.
Extremes UnSuited.
The constant deploring of depressing
conditions is just as much unSulted to
the needs of today as is overoptimism.
refuse to commit myself to either eX-
tremity But there is a course down
the middle of the open road which, II
soundly taken and conscientiously fol-
lowed, should greatly assist in return
ing the business of this country to an
even keel.
There are approximately $4,000 re-
tailers and 1000 wholesalers in the
United States whose capital and energy
are directed exclusively toward the au-
tomobile business There are about
$4,000 storage garages, 101 900 repair
shops and service stations and approx
mately 80, 900 retail supply stores in our
industry. Each of these businesses en-
ploy from ! to so or more men and
women 1t is conservatively estimated
that there are nearly 100000 1ndl-
viduals engaged as proprietorS, sales
men or Servicemen in the retail and
wholesale end of the automobile bust
ness.
Figures have shown that every time
q telephone rings in the United States
the composite American automobile is
driven miles, because there are more
than 100000 automobiles and only
20,000,00 telephones in this country
Directly apd indirectly, more than
100000 carloads of railway freight
each year are shipped in connection
with the automotive industry. And this
industry makes possible many other
industries and large part of the profits
of all other businesses.
Largest Consumer.
The automotive industry is the larg-
est consumer of steel and iron. 1t con-
slmes 80 per cent of all gasoline, re-
quiring the services of at least 800 200
persons in this connection. 1t is the
largest consumer of rubber; also of
plate glass, nickel, lead and upholstery
leather. 1t is leading consumer of
hardwoods, aluminium, copper, tin, zinc,
cotton and asbestos. Its annual use of
fine lacquers is estimated at 100000
gallons, while more than 450,000,000
gallons of lubricating oil and 100000
gallons of anti-freeze solutions are used
annually
The industrial giant affects every in
dividual in the United States and its
possessions through taxation and public
benefits and Improvements. 1t gives
work to approximately 4,700,000 di-
rectly and indirectly out of a total Of
100000 gainfully employed. This vast
employment releases an annual pur-
chasing power of about $500 900 900,
which finds expression in buying from
other industries. Taxes collected on
automobiles now have yearly total
of 81 ,010, 000, 900. We have in this
country over 100000 miles of surfaced
roads, and our national highway system
is constantly being improved and ex-
tended.
These enormous resources. this maSsed
manpower and the effect CT both on our
entire population and all other bust
nesses are dependent upon the amount
OF money expended by car purchasers
each year in this country. Conservative
estimates place the number of automo-
biles now in operation in the United
States at $4,000 900. Other estimates
are considerably higher. On the basis
of a normal seasons mileage and ordi-
nary car care, Is or more per cent of
these 10000, 900 cars should be replaced
in 1881. And great majority of these
requirements will necessarily have tc
come from this group of American in
.Nwvsl d.
purchase Of new car in 1880 largely
because Of hypothetical mental opinion.
Sees Steady Progress.
can see true. steady progress for
American industry in the future. But,
first. two things will have to be elm
mated: One is the conservative
buying, which has done SO much to re-
duce TO minimum that essential Of
normal times-money in circulation.
The second has come from lesson Bit
terly learned within the past few
months. 1t is that solid business or
ganization, elimination of needless
overhead and expense beyond normal
requirements and more hard work and
clear thinking in all lines of endeavor
are needed.
II there still be a Doubling Thomas
regarding future business conditions
who prefers TO remain a dyed-in-the-
wool pessimist let me point out two
things First is the fact that the auto
mobile dollar of today in terms OF the
1914 dollar. is worth l22 pre-war cents,
as compared with today's living
dollar, which by the same standard, is
worth only Sc cents Second, If the
pessimist OF today will bark back to a
year ago this January, he will quickly
discover that there are far more pros
poets for solid, substantial business i'm
provement in 1891 than were at all evil
dent in the corresponding period OF last
year.