Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-09-03
TURN FOR BETTER
IS OFTEN IGNORED
History Shows Pessimistic
Attitude Has Persisted In
Face of Improvement.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, September 3.-Indica-
tons OF change in the trend of in
dustrial affairs are almost universally
Ignored at the end of every business
depression, 1t is pointed out by the
Brookmire Economic Service, Inc, as a
result OF pessimism becoming so strong
ly rooted that happenings pointing to
improvement are lost from view in the
same manner as were the signs of an
approaching depression. Evidence can
be produced, 1t is sid, to show that
this has been the attitude of the peo-
pie following every depression of the
past hundred years.
Public reaction to business depres-
sion" says the Brookmirc Analyst, "has
always been much the same When the
f1rst warning Of the approaching COL
lapse Is sounded, every one is so i'm
bued with the idea of an amending pros
perity that all indications Of a change
In the trend Of industrial affairs are
ignored. But the fii!al collapse always
comes Unexpectedly and at faster rate
than is anticipated. There is the i'm
mediate prediction that the depression
must be short-lived end false indicators
OF returning prosperity are continuously
seized upon. 1t Is finally realized, how
ever, that recovery must be based upon
more fundamental conditions than a
'Wlll-o -tne-W1sp.
Report Recalled.
"Forty-five years ago the United
States commissioner of labor made a re-
port ending with the pessimistic predlc-
ton that the day Of large profits is proba-
bly, past II one is to accept the sue
cess which industry and commerce have
attained since publication of this in
depreciation of the Nations prospects
there is much TO be anticipated"
With slight alterations in dates and
names. the following statement written
in 1886 would, according to Brookmire,
still apply. The commissioners report
read as follows:
The rapid development and adapta-
ton of machinery have brought what is
commonly called overpreduction, so
that machinery and overproduction are
two causes so closely allied that it is
quite difficult TO distinguish the one
without taking the other into consider
alton.
I'm England, Belgium and France.
railroads and canals that are really
needed have been built Germany is
provided with a full network of rail-
roads, and in the United States rail-
roads construction has been out Of all
proportion to the increase Of products
to be carried. Harbors and rivers are
sufficiently developed, and warehouses,
water and gas works, tramways, ETC.,
are largely provided for; the Pyrenees
and the Alps are tunneled, and the
Suez Canal has been built. Terrestrial
and transoceanic lines of telegraph have
been laid and the merchant marine
has been transformed from wood to
iron. The nations of the world have
overstocked themselves with machinery
and manufacturing plants far in excess
Of the wants Of production.
Economic Supply.
"On all sides one sees the accom-
plished results Of the labor of half a
| century. What is strictly necessary has
been done oftentimes to superiority.
This full supply of economic tools to
meet the wants of nearly all branches
Of commerce and industry is the most
important factor in the present in
dustrial depression. It Is true that dis
! covery Of new processes Of manufacture
| will undoubtedly continue and this will
act as an ameliorating influence, but it
will not leave room for marked extern
Sions, such as has been witnessed dur
ing the last so years. or afford en-
ployment to the vast amount Of capital
which has been created during that
period. The day of large
profits Is probably past"