Evening star., 1931-12-06


the tactical blunders of Geneva or fol
that matter of Washington-in a word
anything that would draw attention
away from the main issue would be de.
plorable.
For it is not merely the League which
has gone down to disaster in the pres
ent crisis, but quite as clearly 1t is also
the Kellogg pact and the nine-powel
treaty of Washington, with its ono,
forgotten and now notorious consulta.
tive pact. We are face to face with tht
failure not of one or several instru.
mentalities, but with that of the whole
conception Of how peace is to be main.
tanned And broadly speaking, it is the
American and British conception which
has collapsed.
To begin with the beginning: Ever
since the formation of the League, it:
avocates have quoted Lord Grey, still
better known as Sir Edward Grey, who
affirmed that had he then had avail
able the Council of League of Nations
he could have averted the catastrophe
of August, 1914. But when one now
undertakes to reconstruct the situation
Of that period one is struck with the
amazing resemblance between July
1914, and October, 1881.
Similarity Of Issues.
After all the issue between China
and Japan today and between Serbia
and Austria II years ago Is singu-
larly alike. Serbian nationalism was
seeking to recover from Austrian ruled
territories inhabited by southern SlaV
populations and ethnically and ma
tionally Serbian. The Hapsburg mon
archy had the law and treaty rights
in Bosnia on its side, but its position
was challenged by Serbian purpose
The assassination of Serajevo brought
the whole issue to head Serbian
intentions were irreconciliable with
Austrian rights; Austria had to ad-
vance or retreat.
In the face of this situation Vienna
prepared and suddenly issued the IA
nous ultimatum, designed to put Eu-
rope in the presence of an accom-
plished fact before action could be
taken. And before Europe did recover
from its surprise war was on in fact
between Austria and Serbia. There
after it was impossible to prevent the
onrush of events because there was no
way to end the crisis without the abject
submission of Serbia or fatal loss of
prestige by Austria.
Now precisely the same thing has oc-
Cured in Manchuria. Japan, faced by
unmistakable challenge, has moved with
the same celerity. 1t has placed the
world In the presence Of accomplished
facts. Retreat by the japanese has
been made as impossible as was retreat
for the Austro- Hungarian after the
utterance Of the ultimatum. So far
things have proceeded IN the Identical
fashion OF 1914
But China has appealed to the
League Of Nations, as Serbia could not
Instead Of the frantic lone efforts of
Grey, the machinery of the League was
set in motion with relatively slight de-
lay. Yet this new machinery of post
war international relations promptly
broke down exactly like old-fashioned
diplomacy and for the same reason.
The course Of the japanese, like that
of the Austrian, was designed, without
regard to law, to re-establish national
situation which had been compromised.
Japan meant to stay in Manchuria, to
maintain her treaty rights, to defend
her material interests just as Austria
was resolved to stay in Bosnia.
Serbians Like Chinese.
Conversely, as the Serbians were de-
termined to recover the lost lands of
the old Serbian kingdom, the Chinese
were resolved to regain province in
which so many millions of their CO.
nationals dwelt. The single difference
between 1914 and 1881 lay in the fact
that neither Japan nor China had for
eign allies who were drawn at once into
the melee. Only Soviet Russia was vi
tally concerned and. for obvious rea-
sons, Soviet Russia was not in the po-
Sition to act as CZarist Russia acted in
1914. Thus the quarrel in the nature
of things was localized automatically.
But the implications are not to be
mistaken. What has happened in Man.
churia could at any moment occur in
various corners of Europe. The inces-
SAINT collision between Germany and Po-
lish rights in the Danzig Free State, the
minorities disputes in Upper Silesia and
in the Polish Corridor, could bring q
collision almost without warming. Po-
land, with her hold upon the Corridor
perpetually challenged by German pur-
pose could be moved to seek an end to
the dispute If, for example, Germany
were shaken by domestic strife. Ger
many, Just as obviously, under Nazis'
direction, could undertake to suppress
the Corridor by violence.
Lie gravity u llic cpR-
sode lies in its disclosure that, in the
face of any such act or violence, the
League Is powerless. 1t can meet, 1t
can send out warnings, it can threaten,
but the result in the present case has
not been to make the Japanese abandon
any of the positions which they took or
to halt their progress until the major
purpose of their undertaking has been
realized. They have consolidated their
position in Manchuria by force and now
they can afford to talk indefinitely.
That Is what Austria Hungary expected
to do in 1914.
Manchuria is an invitation, there
fore, to all the dissatisfied powers of
Europe to resort to violence to improve
their situation, and to all the satisfied
to consolidate their position by what
in old military jargon was described
as "defensive-offensive And one may
find similar situations to the Manchu-
rian all over the east and south Of the
continent.
Since the United States Is not q
member of the League and not directly
concerned in any European dispute, the
Manchurian episode does not touch it
at Geneva. On the other hand, Man.
churia does touch the United States
directly in the matter Of the consulta-
tive pact, which was the invention of
the Washington Conference to offset
the covenant of the League. The
treaty Of Versailles had been rejected
by the Senate because of its involve
ments. The problem was to find some
thing which satisfied the peace socie-
ties of the United States who were
politically important without offending
the controlling politicians of the domi-
nant party, who were tsolarionists.
The theory of the League covenant
was that every one should agree to
pool forces to punish an aggressor. All
nations were to join and subscribe and
then their combined force would bring
to halt any nation running amuk.
But as Wilson once said, back of the
covenant was force, and he meant
physical force. He would not 70 as
far as the French, who wanted to pro,
vide the League with a general staff,
he was thinking far more of economic
boycotts and financial embargoes than
military operations and armed action.
But he inclined to the notion Of police
force