Evening star., 1931-06-21
REICH CRASH WOULD HAVE
EFFECTONU. S. INDIVIDUALS
Cessation of Payments Would Cut Pur'
chasing Power of Security Holders
and Hurt Farmers.

cataclySmlc drop In trade ana later IN
possible political disorders at home.
The notion, therefore, that Europe
can collapse or. more specifically, that
Germany can break down without dis
turbing the American situation is pat
emily pureSt moonshine. In any such
event. the present American economic
depression would inevitably last not for
months, but for years, until, in fact,
American production had been read
justed in the face of the practical ex-
tinction Of the purchasing power Of
Europe.
BoIshevism Feared.
Once it is made clear what would be
the consequences for us of a German
collapse, 1t still remains necessary to
bring home to the American public the
reality Of the danger of such break
down. When I was in Paris in April
one Of the leading statesmen of Central
Europe said to me, "If you tell me that
Bolshevism will reach this very city
in which we are now talking in the
think 1t Is possible. My single article
Of faith is that there is in western
civilization enough vitality eventually
to throw off the poison"
In Geneva, a few weeks before, the
foreign minister of one of the great
powers of Europe said to me, 1.-THE
future Of the white race is in America;
Europe is finished" Still another
foreign minister, this time of Cen
trail European state, said, IF you ask
me about Europe, will tell you quite
frankly that it is going straight to
Hell, and I see nothing to stop it."
These straightforward statements in
dicate what the Europeans who are in
formed about the present situation say.
Even In Paris, found one of the most
famous French journalists resolved
henceforth to invest his savings in
American securities.
Bruening Last Hope.
Reading dispatches from Washing
ton, one has the impression that in
official circles, even though the gravity
of the situation is becoming generally
appreciated, there exists the convic-
ton that there is still plenty Of time
and that the Germans are deliberately
exaggerating their conditions with the
patent purpose of enlisting foreign aid
AS to the time element, it was the de-
liberate judgment of all the well in
six months abroad that Germany
could not go through another Winter
without very material aid from out
side and that the Bruening cabinet,
which is the last hope of republican
| government in Germany, could not
last the Summer If the reparations
matter were not adjusted in the mean
time.
1t is hardly possible to appreciate save
in Germany itself the degree to which
the masses and the classes alike are
plunged in an utter and appalling
despair. Anything is better than the
present situation" is the statement one
nears on all sides from the youth and
middle aged, alike, from the worker
and the man In white collar job.
Dictatorship Possible.
believe as result alike OF my stay
in Germany and of my contact with
observers of all the surroundings coun-
tries that the time has already passed
when it is possible to prevent die
tatorship in Germany, dicta-
torship in which the dominating
factor will be the extreme nationalists.
But If such dictatorship does come,
the eventual collapse of Germany seems
almost inevitable. For France will do
her utmost to prevent any financial aid
coming from the outside to help
government pledged to upset the peace
treaties and annex old German terri
tories now belonging to Frances Slav
allies. And the world at large will be
little tempted to risk its capital in a
Germany shaken by domestic strife
and threatened by French military
power.
Once the Bruening cabinet is forced
to recall the ReichStag,-and that date
cannot be postponed indefinitely
then the final crisis will arrive. The
chances that the present German
government will survive it grow daily
less. because. while the press of the
world is filled with discussion of the
German crisis, nothing practical is
being done to relieve the despair of
the German people.
America and France Blamed.
In my judgment the fate of Re-
publican Germany has already been
sealed by the decisions of the govern
ments of the American and French
republics. Our refusal to consider debt
revision. which in turn makes i'm
possible the revision of reparations; the
French refusal to hear of territorial
revision of the peace treaties, automa-
tically dooms any republican regime in
Germany.
It is conceivable that a republican
cabinet might survive in Germany if
it could give the German people relief
from one OF the two consequences of
0SACoU "AIACA IAASy ILAQ ulCOleTaDle.
But no cabinet can carry the burden
of both in the face of the promise of
the Nationalists to abolish not only
these but all other servitudes under the
peace treaties. The promise is patiently
vain, but In their present mood the
German people seem resolved to ac-
cept 1t with consequences to Europe
and to America which can only be
disastrous.