Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-02-01

DISCUSS DTOHlDlblOn. NWll
reader please withhold his brick
i for a momentD Prohibition,
that is, in a single aspect
prohibition in its relation to the presi-
Dental campaign next year.
AS it happens, however, prohibition Is
not going to be the only issue. Prohi-
bition is going to figure powerfully in
every phase of the presidential year, in
the choice of the presidential candi-
dates Of both parties, in the ensuing
campaign and election between them
and in the possibility Of a third party.
But there will be another issue, almost
as potent to determine the outcome as
prohibition itself Consequently we
shall be obliged to consider the coming
presidential campaign, now already
simmering, on broader basis
Two of the less appealing traits of
journalism are to use superlatives, and
to indulge in prophecy. Less of both
practices would work to the improve
ment of newspapers. Both these in
functions would be violated by saying
that the presidential election next year
gives greater promise of very mixed
conditions than any other in recent
times. There is hint of not only "a
third party" but, so to speak, two or
three or more third parties.
Parties Were Formidable.
To anticipate third parties is likewise
trait Of both newspapers and the
public. Third PAL les are predicted more
often than they actually turn up. Yet
the fact is that fairly formidable third
parties do turn up, speaking roughly,
in about one election out of every four.
The last one, La Follette's third party
in 1924, was formidable; it cast II per
cent OF the total vote. The one pre-
ceding, Roosevelt's third party in 1912,
was even more formidable. It cast 20
per cent of the total vote and actually
eclipSed the Republican party, carrying
six States to the Republican party's two
comparatively small States, Vermont
and Utah. Several years preceding
that, in 1896, the gold Democratic par
ty, ofshoot of the regular Democrats
who had gone free-silver, had historic
Importance.
Here are three really formidable third
parties within IS years, to say nothing
Of the smaller third parties that we
have always with us, the Socialists, the
Communists, or their kin.
To consider the intimations now
plainly simmering of third parties in
1882, we may begin by surveying briefly
the whole situation. The 1892 presi-
dental election, as it appears at this
time, will be dominated by q trinity of
abstractions-by two issues and one
condition. The condition is prosperity.
The issues are prohibition and power.
The condition we can readily dispose
of. If prosperity is back or plainly on
its way back, that will help the Repub-
licans. If we are still uneasily con-
scious of depression, If the depression
or its aftermath is still vivid enough to
cause a mood of discomfort among con-
siderable masses Of voters, that will
help the Democrats. The condition of
prosperity, however, has comparatively
little relation to the probability of third
partieS-except that economic discom-
fort in the Nation gives rise to a mood
which tends to welcome political adven-
ture.
Six Factors In Combination.
The issues, prohibition and power,
are two. But the number of potential
third parties for which two issues may
provide incentive is a considerable
mathematical combination.
In the combination are six factors,
six sectors of political thought demand
ing to express themselves in the cleo
ton. There are, first of all, the two
parties, Republican and Democrat.
Then there are the two sides of prohi-
bition and the two sides of the power
question.
In attempting. to classify the groups
arising out of these factors, one must
first define the two sides of the power
issue. We shall have to speak of one
side as those who believe in govern
ment ownership and-or Gas the legal
documents put IT'D Government opera
ton. The other side we shall have to
speak Of as those who believe In private
ownership and private operation. These
definitions are neither wholly exact nor
wholly Just, but they are the best we
can achieve in the brevity here i'm
posed.
The possible groups of voters-indeed
the actual groups, already existing to-
day-are:
Dry craftsmanship Republicans.
wet private-ownership Republicans.
Dry craftsmanship Republicans.
Wet public-ownership Republicans.
In addition there are:
Dry craftsmanship Democrats.
Wet craftsmanship Democrats.
Dry Government-ownerShip Demo-
Gratis.
Wet Government-ownership Demo-
Gratis.
Presidential Favorites.
Each of these eight groups has its
own type of favorite for the preSiden- |
tial nomination. We can list them:
Dry, private Republicans
would be wholly satisfied with President
Hoover.
wet, craftsmanship Republicans |
would be wholly satisfied with Senator |
Dwight Morrow of New Jersey.
Dry, public ownership Republicans |
would be wholly satisfied with Gov |
Clifford Pinchot of Pennsylvania watch |
Pinchot particularly.
Wet, public ownership Republicans |
would be satisfied with Senator La Fol- |
lette of Wisconsin.
Then, among the Democrats:
Wet, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Demo-
Gratis would be satisfied with Gov. |
Franklin Roosevelt of New York (And |
they now seem likely to get him, though |
this situation is very much subject to
change) Wet, Government ownership |
with ex-Gov. Alfred e. Smith of New
York.
Wet, private ownership Democrats
would be satisfied with owen D. Young
of New York.
Dry, Government-ownership Demo-
Gratis would be satisfied with such a
man as Senator Thomas F. Walsh of
Montana.
Dry, private ownership Democrats
would be satisfied with Senator Joseph
T. Robinson of Arkansas.
Out of the eight groups of voters,
four Republican and four Democratic,
it is obvious that at least six are going
to be dissatisfied with the presidential
that will actually be made
by the two major parties. The degree
of dissatisfaction on the part of some
of the groups will be extremely bitter,
powerful to produce third
parties It is a rather safer guess about
the coming presidential year than about