Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-25
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

ii
shall be the Democratic nominee
i for the presidency in 1882 one
hears from politicians and OBJ
servers two forms of judgment. Both
really amount to the same. One kind
Of person says: IF 1t isn't Smith it will
be Gov. Roosevelt" COR Owen Young,
or Newton D. Baker or Senator Robin
son of Arkansas, or Gov. Richie of
Maryland) The other form of judg-
ment says: "If it isn't Gov. Roosevelt
| Cor one of the others) it will be Smith y
Three Issues Loom.
In other words, ex-Gov. Smiths name
| turns up as either the first name or
the second in almost every off-hand
! judgment.
The frequency of the mention of
Smith in this connection, the perma-
nency of him as figure in the front
of the Democratic presidential picture,
| is quite we'll understood by political
leaders of both parties and by expert
enced observers. 1t is commonly neg
| lected by casual newspaper readers and
by most of the public in general. Actu-
ally Smiths prominence in the 1882
picture and his permanence there Is
based on the best Of reasons.
AS it now seems, the presidential cleo
ton in 1882 will turn mainly upon two
issues and condition. The condition
is the state of business; the two issues
are prohibition and power.
AS to the state of business. whether
We shall be still in depression or
whether prosperity will be back-as to
that Smith is certainly in as favorable
a position as any other Democrat. Pos
| sibly he is in slightly better position.
| If we are still in depression in 1882,
and If for that reason a considerable
number of voters are in a mood of sui
| lenness and isappointment-in such a
mood voter might take particular sat-
| isfaction in voting for Smith as can
didate who was rejected in 1928 partly
on the theory that prosperity could be
assured only by his Republican oppo-
nent, Mr.. Hoover.
Smith Is Real Pioneer.
! 1t is, however, on Smiths relation to
| the two issueS-prohibition and power
that his availability for 1882 chiefly
rests. If these are good Democratic
| issues for 1882. it is in part because
Smith gave them impetus as issues in
/ 1928 Smith was the pioneer on these
/ issues. In the two and a half years
! since he put them forward they have
grown. That is, Smiths side Of them
| has grown. That opposition to prohibi-
| ton is stronger now than when Smith
began to give leadership to 1t every
| body knows. And the fact Is that the
power issue, the disposition of many
voters to look upon the aggregate OF
power interests as an institution to be
curbed, has grown rather more rapidly
during the last two and a half years
than even the opposition to prohibition.
In connection with these two issues,
the Democratic leader who is most often
mentioned as the specifically probable
Democratic nominee is Gov. Franklin
Roosevelt of New York. Gov. Roosevelt
has become identified particularly with
the issue Of restraining the power in
terests. But anything and everything
that Gov. Roosevelt has done or pro-
poses to do about power Is substantially
Identical with, or at least is based upon,
what ex-Gov Smith proposed to do
about power in 1928. Smith was the
pioneer on the power issue. For the
purpose of carrying further and putting
into practice the idea OF checking the
power interests, Smith is looked upon
by many as being more surefooted and
more vigorous in a sound way than
Gov Roosevelt.
Heads Forces of Vets.
AS to the prohibition issue, what
name is the instant answer to the ques-
ton: who is the outstanding Demo-
cratic leader of the anti-prohibition
cause?" Is it not Smith whose name
comes instantly to the readers mind?
Some friends and partisans OF Gov.
Richie Of Maryland resent this: they
claim that Gov. Ritchie's opposition to
prohibition. was prior in time and has
been Just as vigorously sustained. But
everybody knows that Smith is the one
whose name lies in the public mind as
the outstanding Democratic leader OPP
posed to prohibition.
Similarly, what is the instant answer
to the question: What Democratic
leader, running as candidate for the
presidency, can bring to the polls
larger number of wet voters or Of voters
to vote for the candidate?" Here, also,
the answer is Smith.
Smith in 1928 got more votes than
any other Democratic candidate in our
history. He got not far from twice as
many votes as the Democratic candidate
Immediately preceding him, John w.
Davis, in 1924; and he got nearly 10
per cent more votes than the next pre-
ceding Democratic candidate, Cox, in
1920. ct is true that in one OF these
years, 1924, there was a third party,
with La Toilette as its candidate).
The common notion that Smith suf-
fered disastrous defeat in 1928 Is utterly
wrong. The illusion arises out of a fail
ing to distinguish between electoral
vote" and popular vote" 1t Is true
that the number of States carried by
Smith, eight, and the number of cleo
toral votes attached to those States,
81, was the smallest ever received by
any Democratic candidate in any cleo
ton sufficiently recent to be comparable.
Smith Popular Vote High.
That fact, however, is very mislead-
ing. Smiths percentage of the electoral
vote, 81 out of total of SCI, was only