Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-04
Rate of Increase in Unem-
pIoyment Has Shown De-
cline in Europe.
CONDITIONS IN AMERICA
ARE WATCHED CLOSELY
Trade Leaders Prepared for More
Aggressive Program During
New Year.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
| NEW YORK, January 3-Cable dis
patches to the Business Week give the
following survey of business abroad for
the week ending January g.:
EurOpe.-At the end of the year Eu-
rope is taking stock of what has hap
pened to business in 1880 and what
| 1881 is likely to hold in store.
i Foremost among the political-eco-
nomic issues will be the tariff truce and
associated problems of trade relations;
secondly, the necessity for realignment
OF European economic rivalries and in
depreciation OF the most-favored-natio
| clause, occaSioned by attempted forma-
ton OF an Eastern Europe farm bloc
and customs union, and, lastly, co-ordi-
| nation of central bank policies and eff
forts of private bankers to restrict ac-
tivities of the international Bank.
Business Confidence Gains.
Year end trends-The Autumn sea-
sonal revival failed to come up to ex-
pectations, due primarily to the out
break Of political disturbances. Bust
ness confidence, however. has been
slowly gaining since mid-November,
with sporadic evidence of actual inn
| provement in individual industries
Though unemployment has reached
new record postwar levels, the rate of
increase in recent weeks is below pre-
vious years. Given at least stability in
| other important world areas, business
new year turning point for more ag-
| gressive new departures. Conditions in
the United States, however, are the
main cause of concern, the belief being
general that no improvement In Eu-
| rope can go far as long as conditions
| in the United States hold a possibility
| of further disintegration. Rapid recov-
cry, even under most favorable condi-
tons, is an improbability. On the
other hand, incipient improvement may
be expected to gain momentum concur
rently with the progress Of economic
| adjustments. 1t is generally expected
that conditions at this time next year
will show appreciable gains-always
| providing no new developments, polit-
ical or otherwise, occasion setbackS.
LOndOn.-With Christmas followed by
bank holiday, little business was done
last week. This week opened quietly,
with all commodities slack except coal.
Stock markets are not active, but the
| tone is better The metal market was
erratically active on the announcement
| of the tin-restriction program. The
price jumped to $605 from the low Of
$685.. registered before the holiday.
Reduction of the Federal Reserve dis
| by surprise. It is generally interpreted
as q gesture to reassure Wall street
rather than something of international
significance, though it is expected It
may cause a flow of French funds to
New York, thus relieving the French
| gold drain on London.
"The spread-over" scheme of work.
| ing in the coal industry has been ac-
cepted in all districts, but local trou-
| bles in South Wales threaten a stop
page when the present truce ends. In
view of the large surplus stocks at the
pitheads in Germany and Poland wait
| ing to gobble up British markets should
| the stoppage become effective, the Brit
| ish public Is inclined TO look upon. pro-
tracted disagreement between labor and
owners as incredible in the present de-
preston period.
Restrained Optimism.
Lancashire mill owners face a major
Walkout If they persist m introducing
the more loom" system.
The country faces the new year with
restrained optimism. Statements from
| important industrialiStS lead to the fear
that Britain is facing q return OF the
| old war between capital and labor with
the normal citizen apathetic. Social
services, excluding war pensions, cost
| 1 ,7O9 millions last year compared with
| 3l6 millions in 1911. On the other
hand, Britain is gradually getting costs
down by effecting naturalization and
pursuing more modern sales policy
with the basic expectation that
better year is coming.
Paris.-France was carried well into
| 1881 on the momentum of the pro-
nounced business boom OF the preceding
2 wears before the influence OF world
| depression and reversal in its own do
nestle cycle began to take effect. Dur
| ing this period of steady decline OF
world prices, French domestic values
continued upwards and reached new
| peaks under the influence of increased
! import tariffs and current imitation.
France consequently carries forward
| into the new year a swollen price struc-
| ture. Where other countries now are
| looking to 1881 for recovery or stabiliza-
ton, France faces a year of defatton
| through which the others already large
ly have passed.
Business views the prospects ahead
| seriously, realizing that defiation has
| become an economic necessity, but that
| no deflation is fundamentally possible
without the correction of certain con-
ditions which have grown up during the
imitation period.
Christmas Trade Good.
BerIin.-The Christmas calm has
completely dominated politics and bust
ness. Sentiment is largely shaped by
/ two factors-unemployment, which
passed 100000, and the new lows on
the stock market. Reaction to the re-
duced discount rate in New York has
scarcely passed the discussion stage.
Christmas trade, despite gloomy pro-
phecies, was above expectations. While
sales of luxuries declined from 20 per
cent to 80 per cent compared with last
year, sales of necessities, including
clothing and shoes, showed remarkable
resistance. In many cases, volume
scarcely dropped below the figures for
1929, though values dropped from 10 per
cent to Is per cent, depending on the
fall in Y1F-iee