Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-11-15
BY FRANK H. SIMONDS

w YHILE the State Department
continues to issue optimistic
wv forecasts of the February
Disarmament Conference.
certain private advices which
have reached me recently from Europe
disclose not merely complete pessimiSm
as to achievement, but frank eS~ehen-
sion as to the consequences of this
momentous gathering.
These advices are twofold in origin,
coming from both Paris and Geneva,
but are single in import-that the
armament conference is pre-doomed
to failure.
The prevailing view in Paris Is that
simultaneously with the meeting of the
Disarmament Conference the Bruening
cabinet will fall. The fall will be the
consequence of its failure to make any
real progress, either for abolition of
reparations or for revision of territorial
clauses of the treaty of Versailles as
they affect the eastern German
frontiers.
This French view is founded mainly
upon the results in recent German cleo
lions. which. in three widely separated
regions disclosed increased strength OF
Hitler extremists and smaller but Strik-
ing Communist gain. The parties sup
porting the present cabinet, notably
the Social Democrats. in turn suf-
fered losses comparable only with the
disaster which lately overlook British
Labor candidates.
Deserted by big Business"
In the still recent Reichstag meeting
the Bruening cabinet just pulled
through by. majority of 25, supplied
by one of the smaller so-called
splinter" parties. The government
was deserted by the bulk of Strese-
mann's old party, which represents Big
Business The survival of the Bruen-
ing cabinet was surprise and did not
arouse any general confidence. The
Paris view is that the respite was due
in no small degree to a desire to wait
and see what would be the outcome of
the Hoover-Laval conference and the
British election.
The agreement of the American
President and the French premier to
preserve the framework of the Young
plan constitutes the negation of all
German hopes for a far-reaching
sweep of reparations No political party
in Germany, nor any coalition which
now supports Bruening or which would
back his successor can safely under
take to return to payment of repara-
| tons. The attempt would be fatal to
the party or the politician who under
took such an effort.
When the Reichstag reassembles in
February the question of the frozen
credits" at once will come to the fore.
Moreover, whatever cabinet represents
the German nation in February will
demand at Geneva the right to equal
ornaments with France-"equality in
security" is the German phrase. But
precisely as the French will be in nc
mood to reduce their own ornaments
in the face of the prospect of a Hitler
regime in the Reich, they similarly are
opposed definitely to revision of the
armament clauses of the treaty of Ver-
sailles. In this, of course, they will be
supported by their Polish and Czech
allies.
Rome Berlin Combination Seen.
Under the surface, too, I am in
formed, Paris views with no little dis
quiet the manifest Irritation which has
been going on between Rome and Ber-
| lin, and which logically would assume
more serious aspect were a Fascist
government to gain control in Germany
French naval and military ornaments
are based upon possible Italian Ger
man combination. and there are many
evidences that such combination is
beginning to take form. Were it to
assume a more solid appearance it is
not impossible that the ornaments of
France and her allies would be in
creased.
The first impressions in Paris about
the Laval voyage patiently are confus-
ing. The French are pleased that the
Young plan was retained as the basis
of future discussion, but they unmis-
takablV are diSaDDOinted that no nrOp-