Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-06-28
By MARK SULLIVAN.

YUST year from next week (as-
Stunning precedent Is followed) the
Democratic party will assemble
~ cat some city as yet unchosen) to
name a presidential candidate
and-as most Democrats today believe
to march through triumphant cam
paign into the promised land This ex-
pectation about success accounts for the
fact that year in advance of the event
so much discussion seethes as to wfo
shall be the nominee. The Democratic
nomination is recognized today as be-
ing very valuable.
Any attempt at an accurate summary
of the situation would begin-and like
wise end-by saying that, AS of year
in advance of the event. Gov. Franklin
Roosevelt of New York seems the likely
nominee. Fidelity to accuracy would
hasten to add. however, that while
Roosevelt leads the field he decidedly
does not dominate it. If you were COM
PEELED to make a bet the terms of the
wager being that the bettor must simply
pick single name from the field one
would pick Roosevelt-and then spend
a year of pretty continuous anxiety.
The perfectly complete conviction of
all politicians in all perties and of all
experienced observers in both parties,
the fraternity of oldtimers who watch
terest that race goers watch the form
Of horSes-the conviction of such Is
that the Democratic presidential nomi-
nation on this occasion will not be de-
termined until after the convention
meets. AS of today they would not bet
on Roosevelt, nor would they bet against
him.
Two Thirds Vote Rule.
Mi ook hot
velt is so far out in front and yet may
not wins not unusual. 1t seems strik-
ing on this occasion just because Roose-
welt is so much more talked about than
any one of the other possibilities. Very
rarely does 1t happen with the Demo-
Gratis that the nominee is known in ad-
vance Excepting. of course. in the case
of a Democrat in the Presidency and
being nominated to succeed himself,
such as Wilson in 1870. What makes
practically every Democratic nominal
ton doubtful until the convention meets
is the partvs unusual rule, which pro-
vides that the nominee must have two
thirds of the delegates. Stated the
other way round, one-third of the dele
gates, or little more, can exercise a
veto upon the nomination. 1t does not
happen, of course, in a convention of,
roughly, 1000 that tire leading candi-
Gate may get exactly 1873 delegates. but
be deprived of the nomination by the
opposition of exactly 367. When a lead
ing candidate is defeated it Is usually
much more than third. But the rsy-
Geological effect of the two-thirds rule
introduces uncertintv into Democratic
races to a degree greater than in the
case of the Republicans, with whom a
mere majority is enough.
Roosevelt's present leadership in the
race is proved by any test applied to it..
Roosevelt is the only candidate in be-
half of whom org9 niZed activity is TAX
ing place outside the borders of his own
State. Roosevelt's friends and admir-
ers are taking steps which should give
him considerable groups of delegates
here ard there in TIE West and South.
Most of the other candidates or aspir-
ants or possibilities are in TIE picture.
for the present. merely as the choices
Of their respective State Or. in the
case of e::-Cov. Smith of New York. for
ev> mple, or Owen D. Young of the same
Stete. as the potential beneficiaries of
situations that may arise in the con-
vent'on or as the convention approach
&c. Only in behalf of Roosevelt is there
formal activity in large way in States
other than their own.
Question Of Several Answers.
TIE reader may assume. but would
be misled If he should assume. that
under this condition all that is neces-
sary to nominate Roosevelt is to throw
enough energy into putting him over
to spend the time and money and re-
Sourcefulness necessary to roll up ap-
proXima tely two-thirds of the delegates
and "cinch" the nomination before the
convention meets. To that suggestion
there are several answers. One is that
Roosevelt has not acquired enough mo-
rnentum with the public to make that
possible. To get the nomination that
way a candidate would need to have
an immense, ardent and energetic per-
sonal following throughout the coun-
try. Roosevelt has not yet achieved
that status. Another answer to the
suggestion that Roosevelt's friends make
a Nationwide drive for delegates is
that friends of the other aspirants
would promptly take notice and check
1t. Yet another reason is that most
of the local State leaders would resent
invasion of their territory by RooSe-
velt's organizers Many of the local
State leaders propose to take their State
delegations to that convention unin-
structed and uncommitted
1t is very difficult for a candidate to
assemble two-thirds or even a majority
OF the delegates in advance No Demo-
excepting the case of Wilson in 1916,
when he was in Office and merely asking
for denomination.
Whether Roosevelt is nominated will
be determined by the net judgment Of