Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-31
TREND OF BUILDING
TO CONTINUE GAIN
Lou R. Crandall Says Outlook
for 1891 Is for Very Fair
Business Year.

Continuation of the upward trend II
the construction curve as applied Il
major and monumental projects, ant
the fiattening out almost to the hori
zontal' Of the downward curve pre-
urinary to gradual upward move
nneht In the entire building industry
with residential construction leading
are forecast for early in 1881 by Lou r
CranualL president Of the George A
Fuller Co.
Our predictions are that with tn,
likely revival of residential building
and with the plans for Fastening the
many Federal, State and municipal
building projects Undertaking. the con.
Struction industry, as applied partic.
ularly to the major and monumental
projects, will experience q very fan
years business during 1891" Mr.
Crsndall said.
Building construction trends will
be closely watched from month to
month. Approximately one-quarter Of
the entire population Of the United
States receives a substantial part Of its
income from industry allied with OF
directly aff1liated with building con-
structiorl, according to estimates Of the
Department Of Commerce
Savings in material costs and In
creased efficiency in labor have been
taken advantage of by many owners.
Early last Fall it became apparent to
us that owners having large construc-
ton projects under contemplation real
lied that savings could be Effected
ranging from 10 to Is per cent as COM
pared with construction costs prevail
ing over the past eight years. We eX.
pect this build now tendency In con.
nection with necessary major and
monumental building projects to be &C
centuated this new year
Perhaps the most encouraging fac
tor is growing disposition on the part
of the general public to regard the fu-
ture in the light of stabilized and re-
adjusted view of the past, a realization
that the years Immediately preceding
1880 were considerably above normal
and that future expectations should be
based on relatives readjusted to absorb
these supra-normal years.
THE construction industry has been
an outstanding example Of this abnormal
condition for eight years with an average
estimated as high as 20 per cent above
normal activity. The deficit IN con-
struction prior to 1921 was not great
and was compensated for by the be-
ginning of 1927, so that for the follow
ing two years a huge surplus was piled
up.
Much of this has been absorbed, but
much still remains In some divisions Of
construction. Greater general business
activity will have to appear to absorb
this excess. However, several factors
indicate a reversal in trend. Among
these is the relation which mortgage
money costs bear to building. Studies
for 30 years show that building and in
terest rate curves parallel each other IN
their fluctuations: that building con-
structicn increases as interest rates de-
cline but that the increase in construc-
ton Iags behind the decrease in interest
rates from several weeks to more than
year. The lag between the current
curves has now extended more than
year and the upturn in the building
curve is fully due.
cit Is safe to assume that If the
downward trend in construction gen.
orally has not been entirely checked, it
has fattened out to an almost hor1-
Eontal movement Of sterilization, and
that definite upturn win be apparent
before Summer"