Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-05-24
BY MARK SULLIVAN.


TIME aim of this article is to show
the reason-or rather one rea-
son, for there are many-why
L the name of Ex-Governor Alfred
E. Smith remains persiStently
in the front of the Democratic pref.
Dental picture.
If the article is to avoid misleading
1t should begin by saying that at this
moment the most likely Democratic
nominee next year Is Gov. Franklin D.
Roosevelt OF New York That Roose-
welt Is well on his way toward the nomi-
nation, that his fortunes go well, that
he has so far neither committed ar
fatal mistake within himself nor en-
countered any Serious misadventure
from without-all that Is the general
Judgment of experienced observers and
experienced politicians in both parties.
a fraternity who watch the progress Of
presidential possibilities as old race
course men watch the training and
"try-outs" of horses.
But and nevertheless, these same
odd timers" among the politicians of
both parties doubt whether Roosevelt
will really be the man. They admit, in
the words OF Frank Kent in the Demo-
cratic Baltimore SUM- that "as things
stand now. Roosevelt has q long lead
He is in the strongest position and on
form should be named
Roosevelt Leads Field.
But, they add, again in the typical
judgment expressed by Mr. Kent: THE
palmer it becomes that the Democratic
party's presidential nominee will not be
known with much more certainty when
the convention meets than now. What
seems sure is that the question of ticket
and the question Of platform will beth
be fought out on the floor of the con-
vention"
II we look on the race as between
Gov. Roosevelt and "the field" more
politicians would bet today on the field
than on the New York Governor. 1.-THE
field" may be considered to include ex-
Governor Smith Newton D. Baker,
Owen D. Young Gov. Richie of Mary
land. Ex-Governor Cox of Ohio (the
candidate in 1920. Some would in
clude in the field two outstanding drys,
Senator Joseph T. Robinson of Arkansas
and Ex-Governor Byrd of Virginia.
And within this field" among the
names other than Roosevelt, the one
most often mentioned Is Smith.
Smith Boom Persists.
The reason or one reason, for the
persistency of the Smith idea rests on
very concrete thing. Smiths friends
and followers, numbering literally mil
lions, believe, many of them passion
ately, that Smith. If nominated. could
be elected next year. Believing that,
they think ardently that he ought to
be nominated They think the nomina-
ton is due to him. as a right, or as
courtesy, or as recognition of his
leadership, or-and this counts particu-
larly--as an opportunity. as an oppor-
tuI1ity to make a better record next
year than he was able TO make in the
less favorable year 1928.
Let US then turn to the facts and
figures. Let us consider what would
be the chances of Ex-Governor Smith,
II nominated, to win the election-as-
Stunning that conditions in November,
1882, will be as they are today-aSSum-
ing. that is, that some Democrat can
be elected.
Needs 473,000 More Votes.
Such an examination Of Smiths
chances comes out rather sensationally.
1t can be stated thus: If Smith next
year could get 473,000 more votes than
in 1928-if. that Is. he could get the
votes Of 473,000 people who in 1928
voted for Mr.. Hoover, he would be
elected. provided land, of course, this
Is a large "provided"), the votes are
properly distributed among the States
That is a startling fact. switch of
473.000 votes In a total national vote
of SO 900 Is not great. 1t Is far short
Of landslide. It could readily happen
Does any one doubt that as many as
half a million voters are ready, under
present conditions, to switch from Re-
publican in 1928 to Democratic in 1882?
Hardly any one will doubt that. Hardly
any one will question that the business
depression would. as of today, account
for a switch of 473000 votes from Re-
publican to Democratic.
But whether the extra would be so
distributed as to carry the necessary
States is more intricate matter.
Smith States Held Safe.
Let us go at it in detail. The election
goes by States. There are 531 electoral
votes, each State having as many cleo
toral votes as 1t has Representatives
and Senators in Congress. The success
full candidate must have 266 electoral
votes
Let us, as a starting point. assume
that Smith next year would carry the
same States that he carried in 1928.
These States with their respective cleo
toral votes in 1892 are:
Alabama ...... IL Massachusetts. II
Arkansas ...... Mississippi. 80. 9
Georgia ....... IL Rhode Island. 4
Louisiana ..... 10 South Carolina. 8
Surely 1t must be safe to say that
Smith would not lose in 1882 any of
these eight States that he carried in
1928. (There are some, including Tom
Helm. who Sclaim that Alabama, al
though Smith carried it in 1923, would
go against him in 1882. 1t is true
Smiths margin in Alabama in 1928
was extremely narrow. He was credited
with 127,797 votes to Hoover's 120.725.
Tom Heflin inSinuates and some others
claim that this narrow majority for
Smith in Alabama was due to an eX-
pertness in counting, practiced by the
local Democratic machine in Alabama.
AS the record stands. however. Smith
carried Alabama in 1928, and in any
fair calculation must be credited with
ability to carry it in 1922
Starting with those eight States that
Smith carried in 1928, let us explore
where he could make additions today
Smith lost New York in 1928, but he
only lost it by 104, 48l-out of a total
vote of more than 100000. That is q
very narrow margin by which to lose
so large a State. A switch of a little
over $4,000 votes from Hoover to Smith
in 1928, a switch of 52,241 votes to be
exact, would have given Smith New
York
Can it be reasonably doubted that
under the changed conditions of to-
day, Smith would take that extra 52,241
from the Republicans? II you doubt
that, then we might as well say con-
ditions have not changed that there
Is no business depression or that the
depression will not have any political
consequences.
Smith. carrying New York next year,