Evening star., 1931-12-13

sudden and perpendicular drop Of the
pound sterling the declaration of the
French premier that reparations pay
ments must have priority over COM
merclal debts and the breakup in
riot Of a peace conference and disarma-
mens meeting in Par.s.
Taken together, all Of these thing
disclose a progressive scceatIati0n Of a
sense If distrust and apprehension,
along with that of eXacerbation of pub
lie feelings. The pound sterling fell
because Of the double reason that Ger
many was viSibly sinking and that
France was prepared to insist that
feparations be paid ahead Of commercial
debts. This meant that British short
term credits adventured in the Reich
Nike the much larger American credits
VIII continue indefinitely in their pres
ent frozen state
But. back of all, lay the inescapable
fact that in Germany, itself, things are
going steadily from bad to worse The
reserve in the Reichsbank, despite all
the help from the Hoover moratorium
and subsequent endeavors to aid is
shrinking weekly. Recent elections have
shown the rapid extension of Hitler
strength and the parallel but less
striking gain of Communism. The
Bruening cabinet is losing strength
daily.
Upheaval Postponed.
An upheaval in Germany has been
possible ever since last Winter. Il has
been postponed only by two rather odd
circumstanceS-on the one hand, the
fundamental conditions are so bad and
the outlook SO unpromiSing that the
HitleriteS, the "Nazis," despite all their
bold threats and claims. have no real
IN
responsibility involved. Such cool heads
as exist in this motley combination of
old nationalists and new revolutionaries
perceive that assumption of authority
now would mean to be quickly dis
credited because, instantly all chance
Of aid from the outside world would be
destroyed A party which proposes to
nationalize the industries, abolish pri-
vate property, starve the Jews to death,
which breaches violence at home and
reputation Of all treaty obligations
abroad, could not hope to attract any
thing but an aloof and hostile treat
ment from the rest of the world. And,
without aid, Germany cannot carry on.
The Communist situation is even
more interesting German Communism
is responsive to and completely under
the direction of Moscow. II derives
much of its funds and all its inspira-
tion from the Kremlin. But Soviet
Russia, in the midst of the agonies
of the Five Year Plan, does not want
any disturbance in the capitalistic
world from which it must stiil derive
the machinery for its experiment. Above |
all, it does not desire an upset IN Ger
many. The Germans have been sup
plying the Bolshevists with their needs !
on long-term contracts. In fact, Amer |
lea and Britain have been furnishing |
Germany With the funds to equip So !
Wet Russial
A German explosion would shut of |
this vital aid. 1t would produce an |
inevitable battle between the Reds and |
the Nationalists, and, however much it |
dislikes the prospect. the Soviets would
be compelled TO support their German
allies. As a result Moscow very obvi-
ously has been restraining German
Communism. Thus the two revolu-
tionary parties in the Reich are at
one time preaching an appeal to vio-
lence and circumspectly avoiding actual
collision.
February Crisis Seen.
But the masses in both German
camps are getting out Of hand Con-
citionS are growing steadily worse.
Winter is coming on with its expan-
sion of unemployment and intensified
tion Of suffering. The millions who
have been converted to the belief in
Red or "Nazi" violence as a solution
of their troubles are pressing reluc-
tant leaders TO action. At the moment
1t is difhcult to see how a grave crisis |
and even real explosion can be avert
cd when the Reichstag assemblies in
February.
France has no investments either
long or short term, in Germany. France !
is concerned with the payment of I'M
conditional reparations. She takes the
ground that because Americans and
Britons risked their money in German
Investments, which have turned out
badly, there is no reason why France
should be deprived Of reparations.
Now it is fairly clear that the Anglo
Saxons cannot get their frozen" credits
back, nor the French their reparationS,
unless there is some general combina-
ton Of all concerned and some compre-
hensive amelioration of German con-
ditions But, despite all the endless
talk that has gone on since last June,
when the Hoover moratorium was an
nounced, London, Paris, Berlin and
Washington have not been able to get
together.
The problem of cooperation is COM
plicated by the fact that three ap-
the four powers Immediately concerned.
France will have a general election in
the Spring and any political party or
group which at this moment revealed
itself as ready to make concessions
would be threatened by annihilation at
the polls Nearly six months of pussy
footing" evasion and dodging are In
evitable
In Germany there will be Prussian
wi deter
mine the control Of Prussia and control
of the army and the police. Today Ger
many is actually dominated by dicta-
torship. based on a minority. Hinden-
burg. the President, signs and promul-
gates what are actually dictatorial de-
crees. Bruening rules by virtue of the
Presidents authority and the support
of the Prussian police. who are cen
trolled in turn by Braun, the third end
in many ways the most powerful OF the
triumvirate.
The Prussian police are the creation
Of the post war years and the result o.
republican control in Prussia. They
are picked men, they are trained TO
fight and they dominate the present
crisis. All Hitler efforts are concen-
trated upon breaking this control and
the present outlook is that he will sue
ceed in the Spring election. In this sit
Hation the Bruening cabinet cannot
snake any concessions to foreign de-
n1ands without insuring disaster In the
Prussian election.
Finally there is the American presi-
Dental election, which obviously pre-
cludes any chance of definitive action
In the matter Of war debts. It is the
conviction in Washington that Ameri-
can public sentiment is now opposed to
debt cancellation or to any form of fur
fhnr ldVentr1rinp ahrOaS The EpoVer
administration, like the Bruening gov
eminent and the Laval cabinet, is
therefore practically paralyzed at this
the most critical moment in postwar
history.
The riot In the French disarmament
meeting arose from the fact that the
day before an international audience