The Washington times., 1931-01-24
AUTO NORMALLY.
/ FORESEEN BY
KNUDSEN
Industry, Chevrolet Head Pre-
diets, Has Ended Year of
! Recession; Now on Gain
BY w. S. KNUDSEN
President and General Manager,
Chevrolet Motor Company

President and General Manager,
Chevrolet Motor Company
We expect 1881 to be normal
year in the automobile industry,
and, on that expectation, are
working on production and
sales program of 100000 new
Chevrolet skies. This represents
an increase over 1880 and paral-
lelS within our own organization
the three-year production cycle
Nvident in the industry since 1918.
This cycle resolves itself into
. year Of recession, year OF
recovery, and a year OF a new
peak in volume. We have just
come through the year of receS-
sion, we are now entering the
year of recovery, and We expect,
barring extraordinary develop
ments not now apparent, to see
1882 set a new, all-time volume
mark.
Should Equal 1928
The present year should COM
pare favorably with production
in 1928, which was 100000 cars,
Just as 1928 exceeded 1925, 1925
exceeded 1922, and 1922, in turn,
was better than 1919. These were
the previous recovery periods in
the constant three-year cycles
since the war.
In arriving at our own pro-
gram for 1881, We took due &C
count of this cycle of the indus
try, and fortified it with exhaus-
tive reports and forecasts from
within our organization and reli-
able outside sources, for the auto
mobile manufacturer needs to be
q business prophet.
He needs to be more deliberate
In his estimate of the future than
the Statistician or economist, be-
cause he must back up his judg-
ment with dollars. He must
know in advance of the year what
to expect Of that year, else his
organization will suffer in profit
to the extent that his Judgment
was wrong.
2 Months in Advance
The best index of our estimate
Of the future is revealed by our
own program. We brought out
our annual new models early in
November, nearly two months
ahead of the customary date.
We made this move because our
study Of conditions convinced us
that the recession was ended, that
the upturn awaited only an ag-
gresSive move by some manufac-
turer with national manufacture
ing and distributing organization,
and that the public-the key to
the whole condition-was impa-
tient with talk of psychological
depression" and ready to demon
strate its desire for a change by
returning to normal buying
habits.
The response to our move was
Immediate and most gratifying.
Output for the last two months of
1880 set a new record, and the
tentative schedules for the early
months of this year compare
favorably with any similar periods
in the past. With the addition of
10000 men to our payrolls in jan
uary, the total is nearly 10000,
our normal operating force.
Keeping Force at Work
A happy result of that change
In our annual program was that
we were able to help relieve unem-
ployment by putting thousands Of
people dependent directly and In
directly upon us to work, and
keeping them at work.
Another was that we were able
to help pioneer business back to
normal by demonstrating our
faith in the immediate future to
certain other manufacturers who
soon adopted similar policies. The
underlying motive, however, was
the conviction that a change for
the better was due.
BY lending impetus to this re-
newal of buying the automobile
has started the march back to
prosperity, and will continue to
lead the march just as surely as
1t made possible the unprece-
dented prosperity of the past dec
ade. Steel, cotton, lumber and
other basic industries can be
great only as the automobile is
greater and opens up a market for
their raw materials.
Great Strides Made
During the past 10 years, more
genuine progress has been made in
and by the automobile industry
than in the previous 20.
Yet, just 10 years ago a sat
uration point" loomed on the hori-
EOS and pSeudo-prophets freely
foreSaw the end.
We know now that until cars
are built to run forever, or human
nature foregoeS its desire for
change. there is limitless future
before the automobile and it is
destined to lead America on to
the greatest prosperity the world
has ever cen.
With 1881 a normal year, and
1882 promising new high record,
there is only the limit of a mans
imagination to restrict the pic
ture of what the coming years
hold for an industry which is not
only the ba"' bone of our indus
trial prosperity but its entire
structural framework.