Evening star., 1931-04-05

ARIS. - Such American reports
- as reach this side of the water
outlining American comment
Il upon the recent Three Power
Naval Treaty serve to emphasize
the wholly divergent views held at home
continues the most discussed detail in
contemporary international affairs. The
points of difference may, perhaps, be
summed up by pointing out that al
least in Continental Europe the Anglo
French Italian agreement does not, on
the one hand, represent any change OF
mind on the larger questions of naval
strengths and on the other holds out
no promise of material progress at the
forthcoming Disarmament Conference
in Geneva
AS to the first detail: On the Con-
tinent it is recognized that Italy has
been constrained to abandon her naval
building program simply because the
economic depression had put so heavy
strain upon italian finances as to for
bid such construction. This program,
designed to provide parity with France,
was forcing the pace and promised
alike to stimulate France into further
building and to compel Britain to in
woke the notorious "escalator clause"
Of the London Treaty.
italy has not waived her purpose to
seek parity with France eventually, but
has only bowed to the present neces-
stiles and, all in negotiating an honor
able arrangement, postponed the issue
until the economic crisis has passed.
Up Again in 1888.
Thus beyond much question the issue,
which wrecked the Five Power negotia-
tions last year, will come to the fore
again in 1895. What is insured is a
pause of five years during which things
will remain as they are, existing
strength being replaced as it becomes
obsolete, expansion programs post
poned In a word, there is no reduc-
ton and the limitation Is due to finan-
cial not moral factors.
As to the second detail, the major
difficulty confronting the Arms Con-
ference at Geneva is the announced in
tention Of Germany to demand that
either her neighboring nations agree to
diSarm to the extent imposed upon her
by the treaty of Versailles or her con-
querorS of the war consent to remove
the limits fixed upon her land and
water armamentS by this treaty. And,
Of course, the naval agreement does not
affect either demand.
It is true that italian agreement
with the other naval powers does mate
rally weaken the German position, be-
cause the Germans had counted that
Italy, bitterly at odds with France,
would support the German thesis to
irritate and even to weaken the French.
What seems clear now is that Italy on
her side Is going to obtain substantial
financial assistance from Paris, with
the assent If not participation, of Lon
don and even of New York, and in re-
turn is going to play reasonable rather
than a disturbing role at Geneva.
In point Of fact, neither Britain nor
France Is prepared TO agree to German
rearmament, and Britain is just as
unready to reduce its navy to suit Ger
man views, as is France to cut her army
similarly. One may fairly safely guess,
then, that one unwritten condition of
the general naval adjustment will turn
out to be an undertaking on the part
OF the Italians to stand with Britain
and France at Geneva. Moreover this
conclusion has already been drawn by
various German newspapers, which have
sharply and bitterly criticized the re-
cent discussions.
Germany May Be Isolated.
What is now possible, If not actually
probable, is that at the Arms Confer
ence Germany will find herself isolated
with only Hungary and Bulgaria among
League powers supporting her.
She can, Of course, also count upon
Soviet Russian aid, but this is more
likely to emphasize her isolation than
TO advantage her cause Facing such
possibilities, the Germans have an
nounced in advance that they will retire
from the League of Nations. And it is
this contingency, very likely, in view of
domestic conditions in Germany, which
explains contemporary Geneva anxieties
about the Arms Conference.
Over against these more or less pes
simistic circumstances must be set the
universal conviction in Europe, outside
OF Germany, that the political conse-
quenees of the three-power treaty may
prove the most beneficial to European
tranquility Of all agreements since Lo-
carno. After all, the Franco Italian
disagreement has been in many respects
the most serious menace to peace in
Europe during the past five years.
Recently have been staying in
France, just across the italian border
on the Riviera. Twenty years ago I
spent a vacation here, climbing the
frontier mountains. Then, without
passport, one was free to cross and re-
cross the frontier and sleepy Italian
guards hardly troubled to wish the
pedestrian luck on his trip. And 1t was
an even more rare occurrence to meet