Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-02-01
Trade Trend and Outlook
Head of Lumber Firm Believes Industry viii Return
to Normal Condition Under Constructive
Leadership Of Western Interests.
BY EBERT L. CARPENTER.


Minneapolis, Mimi.
Special Dispatch to The Star.
MINNEAPOLIS, January Sit would
be useless at this time to attempt to
forecast the immediate future of the
lumber industry. That industry Is
part of the broader economic situation
and will work back to normal as the
situation becomes stabilized and con-
fidence returns.
Three factors which, during 1880,
have augmented the depression in the
United States following the stock market
collapse of October, 1929, are:
The worldwide decline of basic COM
modify values, the extent of which was
entirely unforeseen by our political,
economic and business prophets-it was
a case of the blind leading the blind;
the enactment of the Hawley-Smoot
tariff bill which carried the already
shopworn idea of prosperity by ever
increasing higher tariff schedules to
absurd lengths and which led friendly
nations (our best customers) to lmme-
diately retaliate, and the uncertainty
surrounding The attempt of the Govern
ment to benefit agriculture through OPP
erations of the Farm Board.
Upturn Indicated.
Notwithstanding these facts, evidences
are increasing that we may reasonably
expect sterilization and an upturn some
time during the first six months OF 1881
possibly during the first quarter.
There is an impression in the mlnos
of the general public, as well as IN the
minds of some lumber manufacturers,
who evidently are not as well ADVISED
as to the true situation in the lumber
industry as they should be, that the use
of softWood lumber in the United States
has been steadily declining during re-
csnt years, owing to the increased use
of so-called lumber substitutes.
AS a matter of fact, the production
and use of Softwood lumber in the
United States in the 10-year period from
1919 to 1928 has shown an average
yearly increase for this 10-year period
of 825, 000, 600 board feet over the 1919
production. This same period mas
marked the introduction and use OF
mcst of the lumber substitutes now on
the market. No lumberman need worry
about this. Only those substitutes
which have genuine merit will continue
in use.
The very best of them, it is interest
ing to note, are made OF wood noer ana
mark a distinct advance in the utlllza-
ton of forest and sawmill waste. They
are a legitimate part Of the induStrys
conservation policy.
In the history of the lumber business
in the United States the only PERIOD
during which the consumption and use
of scftwood lumber decreased was be-
tween 1900 and 1918. The decrease,
which was only a moderate one, came
during the first Is years OF this period.
The occasion of it was the practical ex-
haustion of the supply Of Northern pine
lumber.
Northern white pine is the best and
most generally useful of all the sou
woods 1t was the wood used by our
Colonial ancestors in the New England
and Eastern States and many OF the
homes built by them in early Colonial
DAYS are still standing-monument 10
the enduring qualities of this king OF
woods" The greatest foreSts o! tIls
in North America were found IN MICH
igan, Wisconsin and Minnesota
Beginning Of Industry.
The end of the Civil War marked the
real beginning Of the Northern pine
lumber industry in the Central West
and until about 1890 the Northern pine
forests in these States were the chle!
source CT supply of building material
for the development OF TINS region,
which began at the close OF the ClVn
war and which moved forward at
ranidlv Increasing pace for about 20
years following the resumption OF spec4e
payments in 1879.
At the end of this period these forests
were practically exhausted and between
1890 and 1900 the leadership in Sott-
wood lumber production in the united
states passed from the white pine for
ests of the Central and Eastern States
to the long and short-leaf yellow pine
forests of the South.
The decrease to which refer above
began to appear at this time, and the
reason for it is apparent.
The building material from these
Northern pine forests had been FUR
nished to the territory served at low
prices and at low transportation costs.
The territory which had used this
Northern pine lumber could not secure
lumber from the rapidly developing
yellow pine forests of the South or from
the still more distant Softwood forests
Of the Pacific Northwest at prices to
which it was accustomed, with the re-
suit that other useful building materials
which could be produced nearer home
came into use.
This comparatively limited decline
in the use of softwood lumber was COM
pletely ABSORBED between lSOO ana 1918
without serious overproduction appear
ing at any time during this period in
any of the forests in the Central, East
ern. Southern or Western forest areas.
This brings us down to 1919. In
1919 softwcod lumber production in the
United States was 27,407 5000 board
feet. In 1928 it was 28,345 ,000, 900
board feet. Overproduction of softwood
lumber during this period reached its
climax in 1925, with a production of