Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-04-18
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, April ia survey
made by the economic department OF
r. G. Dun & Co., assisted by the in
vestment service department of the
National Credit Office, finds that gen.
eral business did not respond to the
stimulus of Spring in the customary
/ fashion. This conclusion is based on
comparisons of Duns index number for
different years. On this point the sur
vey says:
From the movement of our indus
trial index for the first three months
of 1891 conclusive evidence appears
that general business did not respond
to the stimulus of Spring trade in the
customary fashion. Since 1925 there
has been a decrease in activity in Feb
ruary because Of the shortnesS of the
month Following the slump in Feb
ruary there has generally been sharp
gain. The gains shown by the Index
between February and March for, ths
six years were as follows: 1925, 1873 pei
cent, 1926, 1879 per cent: 1927, 2l.5 per
cent; 1923, l21 per cent; 1929. 1872 pei
cent and 1880, 1910 .per cent. The
average of these gains shows that the
general seasonal increase between these
two months was 1876 per cent. The
gain from February, 1881. TO March
1881, however, was only lO.6 per cent
or approximately two-thirds OF the nor
NAL.
I'm using the term normal we con-
slider the years 1925 to 1928 as normal
We justify the inclusion of 1929 and
1880 in the average to determine a
normal because the unusually heavy
activity of the former year and the
generally reduced level of business In
the latter year can be taken as offset
ting one another. The average Of the
entire six years, therefore, may be con-
sidered as an arbitrary normal for our
! present purpose,
Outlook for Rest OF Year.
1.-THE question naturally arises as tc
whether or not the peak Of activity
! for 1881 was reached with the level
which was attained in the month Of
March. It will be observed that ir
the years 1925, 1926. 1927 and 1929 the
peak of activity occurred in March
while in 1928 1t was reached in MAY
and although the peak was actually
reached in March of 1880, 1t was
almost duplicated in May Of that year
There is little evidence from the fiuctu'
atoms of this particular index there
/ lbiEs NiliCh HOuld AEdl bAiC oLuACbto "
expect higher level Of activity later ir
| the year than that Of March. 1t is o.
course true that October is a month
Of increased activity prior to the fina
year-end reduction Of operations.
AT the present time 1t Is difficult
to predict industrial trends and senti
ment as far ahead as the Autumn
| The point should be made, however
that october activity, according to this
! index, has rarely been as great as tina
| of the early Spring, and that there
| after there has been general down
ward trend to the end of the year.
Reduction of Inventories.
Industrial inventories, at 849 pc
cent of the figure for the first quartz
of 1880. were reduced by considerabl.
less degree in the first quarter of 1893
than we're production and sales, say
the survey.
This must be explained" assert!
the survey, ION the ground that in
ventories were in some degree liqui
dated during the final quarter o
1929 and in general were not dispro
portionately high during the frs
quarter of 1880. For this reason a de
cline of 1871 per cent in inventorie
from the first quarter Of 1880
comparable to the decline of almos
80 per cent in production and sales
and 1t may be considered that in
ventories are being liquidated an