Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-08-23
NEW CRISIS IN GERMANY
LIKELY IF RELIEF DRACS
Bruening Faces Task of Satisfying Peo'
ple-French-Anglo Saxon Quarrel
Would Aggravate Situation.

exIenQeQ VlSlC IN ktOIne, IL hECepteQ III
all French quarters as proof that the
organizing a new campaign for Geneva.
precisely like that which the French
believe was undertaken at Washington
in 1921 and at London two years ago.
It Is all very well for Mr.. Stimson and
Mr.. Macdonald to assert that politics
were not discussed. but for the French
this recent meeting appears only re-
newal Of conversations begun ut the
Rapidan and not quite brought to frui-
ton at the last naval conference.
France hates the present British Labor
government and fears the Hoover ad-
ministration. 1t believes that both are
in agreement to attempt to coerce
France into adopting a program of dis
armament which will deprive her of her
present military supremacy in Europe,
fatally reduce her political influence and
in the end compel her TO accept Anglo
Saxon views In the matter Of German
recovery. Thus she sees Geneva as q
decisive battle. with France on the de-
fensive, her security In the balance.
French Policy Hardened.
Refusal OF London and washington to
listen to French suggestions of q post
ponement OF the disarmament confer
ence has hardened French policy In the
matter of Germany. The fact that
nearly 40 per cent OF the Prussian cleo
torate voted against the government and
for a cause favored by the Steel
Helmets has impressed the French al
most as much as the fact that the
of the German people feel that way, the
French say, then there is no present
reason for reduction Of the French mil
itary establishment Then, too, France
has q general election next Spring. and
this fact is going to make the groups
which support the Laval cabinet even
less willing to make concessions to Ger
many which are unaccompanied by cor
responding German concessions.
The British situation Is none too
promising. The Labor government is in
an awful mess as result Of the state
Of British finances, emphasized by the
recent temporary drop in sterling which
led to American and French support.
Labor has been excessively pro-German
In foreign policy. but British investors
are none too happy over the fact that
upward Of $1,000 900 of their money is
frozen in Germany, while British ex-
porters are in q well justified funk over
the prospects OF q German dumping
sary foreign credits.
The recent Parliamentary report call
ing for far-reaching economy has split
the Labor party. which sees the dole as
the foundation Of It's political strength.
If the Macdonald cabinet should fall
the Tory government, which inevitably
would be returned. would be far less
pro-German than the present. far more
inclined to renew friendly relations with
France and not nearly as interested in
the success Of the Geneva disarmament
conference.
Germany Out Of Luck.
Germany, then, is unmistakably tout
Of luck" as far as the present condi-
tons in the United States, France and
Great Britain are concerned The first
two countries are sure To have gen.
eral election next year; the other in all
probability win go through the same
ordeal. and domestic considerations are
likely TO count far more than foreign
And America can do nothing Of inn
portance for Germany on the main
issue, which is debt cancellation de-
signed to bring about reparations re-
auctions, while France Is almost as I'M
likely TO consent TO loans without
political considerations because Of do
nestle politics.
The whole world, the United States
included. would be enormously advan-
tagged II the American President would
come out boldly in favor of the cancel
lation Of allied debts and the parallel
extinction Of al equal share of repara-
tions obligations. In the end the thing
win have to be done II Germany is TO
be saved. But this might easily prove
a politically suicidal course for Mr..
Hoover. On the other hand, his appar-
ent belief that he can carry the Amer
lean people along with him In an at
tempt 70 trade reparations for disarna-
ment viii come to nothing. Because
the armed nations-France and her
aliies--wouid not profit materially from
debt cancellation and are firmly con-
WINGED that their security depends upon
the maintenance Of their present
armies.
Germany Awaits Results.
In the end the fate Of Germany may
turn on the attitude OF the American
and French governments, the one in
the matter of debts and the other in
that OF loans. By the new year Brle-
ming will have TO give the German peo-
pie either the material relief due 10
fresh forign loans or the moral encour-
agernent incident TO q solution OF the
issue in a manner sattsfac-
tory to Germany. Perhaps 1t would
take both TO make his position secure;
but II he can promise neither, new
crisis seems inevitable. And that crisis
will be sharply accumulated II a quarrel
between France and the two Anglo
Saxon nations at Geneva over dtsarma-
ment produces fresh financial as well
as political trouble In Europe
Thus, while he has his feet on earth.
Bruening still has q halter around his
neck.
fCapyright, 1917