Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-10-04
|''BACK TO LACARNO" SEEN
IBERLIN'S ONLY PEACE HOPE
French Loans to Reich Expected to
Result in Economic Agreement
and Real Understanding.

Russia would invade Poland, but the
last invasion was crushed in a battle
under the walls of Warsaw in 1920, and
Russia now Is engaged in an enormous
project Of domestic organization.
Finally, the Germans reckoned on the
internal collapse of Poland as q result
Of political incompetency.
The moral effect of German agree
ment to a political moratorium will be
considerable. Poland will be able to
consolidate still further her present
hold in Danzig and the Province Of
Pomerelia.
The prospect for Germany is bitter
In the extreme. The situation between
France and Germany now and when the
battle began in 1919 has changed in
calculably, and every gain has been
with the French. 1t would be inexact,
however, to say Germany has lost
everything for which she fought On
the contrary, she has won almost COM
pletely her battle against reparations.
Under the treaty of Versailles she
was bound in principle to an annual
payment of more than $1,500,000-
600. Under the Dawes plan it was
scaled down to $625, 100000 under the
Young plan to $45o, 900, 900. Now Ger
many is asked to pay only the $780,
100000 of the Young plan uncondi-
tional detail. France will try to hold
her to this, but it will not be easy.
Says Debts Are Dead.
In the main reparations, and war
debts with them, are dead-as dead as
Queen Anne. 1t may be that the Amer
lean Congress will never agree to for
NAL cancellation, but the Hoover mora
forum will be renewed and renewed.
1t will be renewed because there will
be no choice. Germany cannot pay.
I DID
payments, and France and Italy will
not
So much the Germans have accom-
plished. chiefly at the expense of the
United States.
Once political moratorium does ar
rive, the German position in the world,
and particularly at Geneva, will be
materially benefited. The old associa-
| ton Of StreSemann, BRAND and Cham
berlain is sure to find some contem-
| porary repetition. The gain for the
League will be greater than for any
! individual country. The League has
| suffered intellectually b. becoming the
battle-ground for French and German
| craftsmanship. 1t can resume where
| it left of when the death of Strese-
mann and the rise of the National
Socialists in Germany led to the viz
tual scrapping Of Locarno.
! Back to Locarno!" That is all that
! is left for Germany or for Europe.
With reversion to Locarno, Franco
! German reconciliation will not arrive
| speedily, nor perhaps ever, in any SER
| timental fashion. But along with
French loans to the reich will go some
form Of economic agreement which will
! reunite Ruhr coal and French iron,
matter which becomes urgent. now that
the French hold on the Sarre is about
| to lapse. The two nations can and will
| do business together, and for time at
least stop fighting politics.
See New Tariff Union.
Along with the ending Of the Franco
| German war there must come some sort
OF adjustment in Central Europe. Eco
nomic association between Czechoslo-
vakia, Hungary and Austria-some form
Of tariff reunion of the old Hapsburg
monarchy-is unacceptable If all Of the
middle Of Europe is not to diSintegrate.
The Germans will instinctively OPP
| pose it, because it would end their hope
| Of the AnschluSs, of Austro-German
union. But, again, they can have little
! power. The Italians will dislike it be-
cause it will have the semblance Of re-
storing their ancient and hereditary
enemy. On the other hand, it would
relieve them Of all fear of the An
schluss and might lead to the disinte-
grafton of the French system Of alli-
anceS, held together by fear.
In any event, there are the two i'm
mediate possibilities following upon the
British crisis-Franco-Germ political
truce, based upon German acceptance
of the territorial status quo; economic
association in the Central European
area between CzechoSlovakia, Austria
and Hungry. These two things are the
irreducible minimum of any political
or economic progress in Europe. II
both were achieved, long step would
be taken toward escape from the i'm
| mediate mess and toward the exercising
Of the fear of war or Of anarchy, which
are the present alternatives.