Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-05-03
NO CHANCE FOR SUCCESS
OF ARMS MEETING SEEN
British for Navy, French With Army Are
Considered Too Far Apart in Views
for Possible Accord.

What makes the situation apparently
insoluble Is the fact that Germany ana
Hungary, as we'll as Austria, are opely
resolved not to accept their present ter
ritorial status or political conoltlon.
They have publicly adopted program
of revision Of the peace treaties, which
can be achieved only at the expense oil
the Slav allies Of France, and OF Ru-
mania also. France, in effect, therefore,
saws to Britain, I'VE shall not disarm,
nor will our allies, until you guarantee
the permanence Of precisely those from
tiers Germany, Austria and Hungary
mean to change"
The theory of the Labor government
has been that the role Of Britain was to
act as arbitrator alike between France
and Germany and France and Italy.
Its condemnation of Tory foreign policy,
used effectively in the last campaign.
was that Chamberlain had permitted
Britain to become the tail to the French
kite. Labor has been resolved to make
it clear that the wartime alliance with
France was at an end and that Britain
would play no favorites as between
France and Germany.
Today things are drifting toward the
situation of 1928 in q very striking
fashion. On the one side Germany Is
again beginning to challenge the urea
ties: on the other British public opinion
is becoming increasingly angry with
France because of French opposition TO
all British projects for disarmament.
and thus, as the British see 1t, to all
efforts to establish peace in Europe.
British Threat Seen.
Thus In many influential quarters one
sees clear evidence of q tendency on the
part of the British to threaten the
French with serious consequences II
they persist in their way. But the
trouble is that while it is possible to
threaten France, 1t Is even less easy
than In 1928 to coerce France.
For now France Is not only still at
the head of the most powerful military
combination in Europe but has recov-
cred her economic and financial
strength at q moment when Britain Is
suffering in both directions and Ger
many Is well nigh compelled to apply at
Paris for the loans without which she
cannot carry on.
For a year the gold Of the world has
been steadily draining from London TO
Paris, while the Bank of France still
retains in the British capital funds the
recall of which might cause grave
trouble. Similarly France Is rationing
Germany through short-time loans, the
recall of which might not tmpoSsibly
produce q panic in Berlin. 1t Is this
circumstance which makes 1t practically
certain that in the face OF new crisis
France would not, as in 1928, resort TO
military sanctions, but could with Tar
greater effect content herself with fnan-
cial reprisals.
Britain, Germany and italy for quite
different reasons resent the French atti-
tude and the French position. Britain
believes the French stand on diSarna-
ment precludeS the arrival Of real peace.
Germany finds it an absolute barrier to
her ambition to restore her Eastern
frontiers and unite with Austria.
Italy Is Blocked by France.
Italy finds every attempt Of hers to
play the role of a great power in the
Danubian region blocked by French in
f1uence. All want the French army re-
duced, all would like TO break up the
solidarity between France and her SlaV
allies. But neither individually nor
collectively are these three countries
capable of coercing France, which Is by
comparison rich and almost prosperous
But the effect of all these various
signs diScoverable in London, Berlin and
Rome has been to arouse French appre-
hension and harden French purpose,
with the result that the prospects for a
successful disarmament conference are
today just nil.
This is the situation as 1t exists to-
day: Before this article Is published
two things may happen-the Labor gov
eminent may fall in Britain; BRAND
may have to leave the Quai D'Orsay.
But the former would not materially
change British policy; the latter would
only constitute further evidence of the
hardening of French opinion. More
over, one must recall that French pol
icy, based upon the same convictions
which control today, prevented the sue
cess of the Washington Naval Confer
ence, the Genoa Economic Conference,
the five-power session In London last
year, and marched into the Ruhr In
1923. Whatever one may think OF the
moral aspects of French policy. 1t is
impossible to ignore the physical aspects,
now that a new conference Is in the
wind.
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