The Washington times., 1931-04-13
NEW VIEW SEEN
ENCOURAGING
IN STOCKS
Spectator Praises Analysis
indicating Market NearS
Final Accumulation Stage
By THE SPECTATOR


NEW YORK, April 13.-At the
time when pessinism in Specula.
tive quarters is so widespread as
ct the present, it affords a rather
pleasant relief to turn to the other
side Of the picture and study the
possibilities outlined for the mar.
ket from the constructive point Of
view.
In this connection, the analysis
set forth by one Of the many eco
nonic services is Of more than
passing attention.
This survey points out that
there is a striking similarity be-
tween today and the summer Of
1929, in that at that time, ap.
pearanceS were bulliSh but reali-
ties were beariSh, while now ap-
pearanceS are beariSh and reaN.
ties very bullish. It goes on to
state that in September, 1929
the good news was all out and
the bulliSh factors had spent
themselves, while at the present
time the bad news Is all out and
the bearish factors have spent
themselves.
Need Not Follow Rails
The analysis concludes with the
assertion that the market is ap.
parently at the final stage Of &C.
cuTnulation from which q sus.
tanned price advance may be un-
der way before the SkepticS have
even realized that the turn has
been passed.
To return to the market proper,
however, there are a number of
precedentS brought to view which
indicates clearly that the recent
decline Of the rails into new low
ground for the bear market, does
not necessarily indicate that the
remainder Of the list must neces.
Sarily follow suit.
It is shown that in 1921, the
secondary decline following the
first false rally, carried the in
dustrials to a new low, but the
rails did not confirm this new
bottom. Again, in 1923, the de-
cline carried the rails into new
low ground, but this dip was not
confirmed by the induStrialS.
Therefore, the general expecta-
ton for forthcoming weeks is q
more or less irregular market,
during which such unfavorable
reports as come to hand will af-,
feet primarily individual in
stances, rather than all sections
Of the general list.
Can Only Improve
In the opinion Of close market
Observers, the situation bearing
on the railroad stocks is now so
bad that the only change can be
for the better. AS evidence Of
this, are the estimates Of g
sharp upturn in net earnings for
March, soon to make their ap-
pearance. Railroad circles placfl
the March decline in net operat
ing income, compared with o veal
previous, at between 80 and 4O|
per cent while some railroad ex'
ecutiveS believe the decline for
the month may be as little as Is
per cent.
Should these expectations ma
teriali7e, the chances favor son =
Improvement In the market 81
ton Of investment rails.
AS an, illustration OF the cpV
portunity from o long pull Stand'I
point offered by market della.
ton. Deere and Company, listed
on the New York Curb is out
standing. In the opinion Of
leading advisory service. No,
selling at only the equivalent OF
Q conServatively estimated work
ing capital, Deere, an important
factor In the agricultural ma
chinery field, is in q position to
promise satisfactory profits from
a long term viewpoint. The work
ing capital Is equal to $3.50 a
share on the common, against
recent quotations under 80.