Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-29
Special Dispatch to The Star.

NEW YORK, January 29.-The
rather encouraging way in which the
basic industries have responded to the
seasonal influences making for revival
has been the outstanding business de-
velopment during the opening weeks of
the new year, Guaranty Trust Co. of
New York says in the current issue of
the Guaranty Survey.
From numerous branches of manu-
facture and from various sections of
the country have come the reports of
increasing output and rising employ
ment," the Survey continues. stock
and commodity markets have caught
the improved tone OF general bust
neSs-not with any sharp and suS-
tanned advance, but at least with more
firmness than had been visible for
some time previously. Money rates
have declined further and some i'm
provement has occurred in the bond
market. On the whole, therefore, the
situation is unquestionably better than
it was a month ago.
1T would be a mistake, however, to
rush to the conclusion that business has
definitely turned the corner'-that the
factors which caused recession to con-
tinue unbroken until almost the very
end of 1880 have, with the turn of
the year, been abruptly transformed
into favorable influences. Although it
appears, at the moment, that the in
crease in industrial activity has been
greater than is usual at this time of
year, it remains true that the ex-
pansion is mainly seasonal in its ma
ture.
Stability in Slow Recovery.
at is not yet possible to judge
whether the upturn has any perma-
nent significance or not. In the abb
sence of more conclusive signs of re-
covery than have yet appeared, it may
be well to recall the false hopes that
were engendered by the even sharper
upturn year ago. Business men in
general have become aware that re-
covery must be a slow and gradual
process and that, to the extent that
it is slow and gradual, the foundations
for future prosperity will be the more
securely laid. To abandon this view
merely because of the Unexpectedly IA
vorable developments of week or a
month would be fundamental error.
But with full allowance for the fact
that few weeks of rising activity al
| the beginning of the year do not nec-
essarily spell recovery, it is impossible
to escape the feeling that the recent ex-
| pansion may be sign of the approach
of better times. Business has passed
| through long period of readjustment
DULL IidtCAId14y dLlu poyC14OIOS1Cdllyy CIle
defation seems to have been very thor
ough. In December and January two
conditions have appeared that throw g
| light on the position of consumers
namely, the relatively small decrease ir
holiday buying and the response of the
public to the annual automobile shows
Whatever encouragement may be de.
rived from these Considerations car
| find some support in the greater sta
bility recently apparent in commodity
prices. The monthly index of whole
sale prices of the Guaranty Trust Co
| for January Is stands at SIS, as against
566 a month earlier. This slight de-
cline is due mainly to the movement
of prices during the last half of De.
cember. Since the beginning of Janu-
airy there has been little or no down.
ward trend. AS far as its bearing or
the probable future course of business