Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-07-19

nominated, of course He will be re-
elected. barring two conditions. He can
be beaten only II the business depres-
sion continues at its present depth
Even with that condition continuing.
Mr.. Hoover can only be beaten by some
one who comes forward with q plausible
remedy for depression"
In that last sentence the significant
phrase Is plausible remedy" "Plaus-
IDLE" means something that promises OF
tries to do what cannot be done in fact.
A plausible remedy" Is one that sounds
convincing. but in operation cannot
turn the trick. II there were any genu-
inc, shortcut remedy for depression. it
goes without saying that President
Hoover would have discovered it some
time ago, and would have applied 1t
without waiting Tor the 1882 election.
And If not President Hoover, some one
else among the business and banking
leaders who have explored every area in
which remedy for depression might be
found.
But before discussing the plausible
remedy" that seems likely TO emerge in
1882, let us examine briefly the first two
conditions in this Republican pundit's
dictum.
Business Holds Answer.
President Eoover's reelection or de-
feat. this Republican says, will turn
primarily upon the condition OF bust
ness. Maybe so. That is almost the
universal view, shared by Republicans
and Democrats alike. Very probably it
is SO. But one feels like cautiously
pointing out that it is at least possible
for business to return to normal and
yet for President Hoover TO be defeated
on some other issue than business One
f1les this minute caveat only because
OF the speed with which things change
in America. We have seen within the
last few weeks how rapidly new issue
and new determining influence in
politics. namely, our relation to Europe,
can push everything else, even prohi-
bition, of the boards. In the more than
Is months before the election the same
sort OF thing can happen again and
with the same SuddennesS. Events
move fast In the modern world and
America has become an extremely vola-
tile nation, capable of disconcertingly
rapid alienation of praise and disap-
proyal for its public men.
Let all this pass. however. The
greater probability really Is that next
years election will turn upon the state
of business
The next condition in the Republican
politicians dictum Is more tangible
and more subject to real argument. To
express it in the form of a question
Will the present business depression
still be underway when the presidential
election comes in November. 1882, more
than Is months ahead of us?
To propheSy about the length OF this
depression comes under the head of
dangerous occupations. By END of the
depression" most persons mean restora-
ton Of the condition they remember
as Of early 1929. In some future year
this country without doubt will have q
| prosperity exceeding that Of early 1929.
For political purposes, however, for the
| purpose Of saving the party in power.
prosperity does not need to reach In
/ 1882 the heights 1t had in 1929. When
| Republican political leaders count upon
the lend of the depression" or the
return of prosperity as saving them
! in 1892, all they ask for is the sensa-
/ ton of steady betterment. the feel Of
rising sap in the tree Of business.
That this condition. this much at
least OF restored prosperity. will be with
us much less than Is months from
now is hardly a hazardous prediction.
BY election time. November, 1882. this
depression will have been underway
more than three years. 1t is almost
unthinkable that the acute phase of
a depression should last so long. The
writer Of this article from time to time
talks with a good many men supposed
to be sure-footed and able in the fields
of business or Of economic thought.
Among all that the writer has seen
only one thinks the depression will last
as much as three years. This particu-
lar pessimist Is q learned man with an
exalted place in the world. His learn
| ing and experience, however. are not
in the area of business. When he says,
most forbiddingly, that this depression
will be known in history as the crisis
Of 1933'-meaning that the worst is
still two years ahead-that is conSid-
cred by the pesSimist's friends to be
merely whimsical exaggeration. Every
other authority the writer knows, prac-
tical or theoretical, believes We shall
be well on the way out Of this de-
preston by next Fall. Practically all
say We have already passed through the
worst of it.
Deeper 1920-2l Depression.
One feels like pointing out that de-
preston within every adults memory,
the one of 192o-2l, was even deeper
than this, in the sense that the fall of
prices was both greater and more sud-
den, yet within two years of the begin
ming we were well on the way out OF
| it. At that time We saw tie price of
cotton double itself within two years.
In q subsequent and minor depression.
in 1925, we saw the price of cotton
double itself IN little more than one
year. Some things can happen again.
Il should add that the present depres-
sion has features which make 1t not
wholly analogous to the 1920-21 one1
So much for that. Assuming that
things 60 badly, assuming the depres-
sion is not over when the presidential
campaign OF next year gets under way,
let us consider that plausible remedy
which some one may come forward with
the plausible remedy" with which
some presidential candidate so 1t Is
said, may beat President Hoover.
II there is anything Of this kind in
the future, almost certainly the can
didate will be some new incarnation of
william Jennings Brysn, and his
plausible remedy" will be a renewal
Of Bryan's free and unlimited coinage
Of silver" in fixed ratio to gold. The
only difference will be in the ratio de-
manded. Bryan in 1896 demanded that
the Government of the United States
gold shall be forever and exactly equal
to 16 ounces Of silver-"16 to u was
Bryan's cabalistic formula In 1896. The
new plausible remedy" II 1t comes,
will merely change the ratio to figure
considerably higher.
Silver Question Recurs.
It seems grotesque even to suggest
that We may have that old "free silver"
tight over again. A little over year
ago, on June II, 1880, I wrote in this
paper brief dispatch about silver,
called for by something that had hap
pened about our foreign trade. As I
wrote I wondered If might be called
upon to write many future dispatches
might bring back the old silver issue.
dismissed the notion, at that time, as
fantastic. But as the weeks passed I