Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-08-23
BIZ FRANK n. srMoNDs.


the Prussian election have
served to indicate the extent
Il and the limits of the success
there of the forces of order.
The victory, considerable as 1t was, has
constituted what soldiers call q battle
Of arrest. The subyersive forces have
been checked. but they remain in be-
ang and formidable. All depends now
upon what happens in the breathing
net. And this in turn depends on for
eign as well rs domestic factors.
Despite all the solemn farce which
has accompanied the legalizing OF the
moratorium, no one seriously expects
tho Germans to resume payment OF
reparations on anything like the old
scale. On the contrary, every one
knows that the Bruening government
can survive for an indefinite future
emily as It Is able to present its FESTIVE
Oaf0lic with evidence Of something not
Tar short Of complete cancellation OF
separations.
The Young plan, like the Dawes plan,
must be revised But the next revi-
aion win have to be undertaken on q
fsx different scale from that made at
me Hague two years ago. which was
eendered useless by the consequences
&c the economic depression. And re-
auction OF reparations in its turn only
can come about as two countries are
prepared to modify their present stands.
E7aese countries obviously are France
aad the United States. 1t is the politi-
eal policy Of France and the debt policy
Of the United States which have been
responsible for German ruin.
Policy Of America.
10 take the American policy first.
For several years European creditors of
Germany have been ready to wipe on
rs much Of their claim as could be COW
cred by similar extinction of Ameri-
can claims upon themselves Roughly,
that would amount today to some $3.50
600 900 Of $425, 900 900, the present an
nual total Of German reparations. Ger
many in such readjustment would re-
main bound to pay considerably less
than $500 ,OO0. 900 yearly, and since al
lied payments to the United States rise
progressively, German payments would
Tall correspondingly.
No European country, however. will
consent TO wipe the slate Tor Germany
unless we clean our slate for them.
That was the case before President
Hoover proposed his moratorium, and
the mere fact that he did propose it
has satisfied al European creditors Of
Germany that our concern for invest
ments locked up in the Reich will make
US 20 the whole distance II they hang
on. In q word. Europe Is now satisfied
that the American investors in German
securities and loans are at once so con-
cerned as to their own investments and
20 influential In American politics that
they viii bring about cancellation once
they are satisfied that It Is the only
way 70 save their investments.
Policy Change Unlikely.
But with 3 presidential election In
sight and . deficit Of formidable pro-
portions iElescapable for the current
pecting complete reversal Of Ameri-
can policy and a new Hoover proposal
for q perpetual moratorium? It Is hard
to see any promise of 1t.
The Franco-German situation is not
cutie as bleak, but 1t is far from reas-
surfing. The French manifestly are
eager TO arrive at q settlement with
the Germans and the Germans pat
entity are aware Of tie need OF some
change. Sooner or later Germany has
got TO have fresh money, and even ii
II could be obtained elsewhere. which Is
doubtful. no foreign investors would
touch German loans while France re-
manned hostile.
Nevertheless, the French show no
evidence Of having modified their pur-
pose 70 make any money transaction
conditional on political concessions.
They are themselves under very great
pressure from Poland and Czechoslo-
vakia 70 compel Germany to abandon
her campaign for territorial revision In
the east and tariff union in the south.
And France has very considerable finan-
ciai as well as political stakes in both
Of these Slav countries and win need
the help Of both in the struggle which
conference Paris already sees Wash
tngton, London and Rome getting to-
gettler and is convinced Germany will
press for drastic reduction Of French
armed forces or sweeping increases Of
her own. Thus the reasons for seek
ing political renunciations from Ger
many are Just as strong as ever, and
the French press shows little or no
sign Of . change in public opinion on
the issue.
Aid Of Tranquility.
Germany might be able TO save her
eeh tIp TO q point If aided by q period
OF relative tranquility IN European in
transitional relations Instead, there Is
every evidence that the disarmament
conference OF next February viii pro-
dsIce the bitterest struggle since the
Genoa conference Of 1922, which Jed
directly TO the occupation Of the Ruhr.
That is the case because France now
sees herself compelled TO fight for her
position in Europe Secretary StimSons
long stay in Britain this Summer, fol-
lowing hts excursion 20 Berlin and his