Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-02-01
The w oOdchuck S
Shadow Seen on
Candlemas Day
Not a Portent of
Cold w e a til err
for Six w e ks.

mike" to the world at large For, when you
stop to think about it, he is one of the few
animated prophets of all that ancient order
of weather charlatans existent from time inn
memorial
over in Europe, long before the United
States or Canada was inhabited by peoples
of European descent, individuals were fore
casting the weather by signs. omens and por-
tents Of these none were more popular than
certain days called by DR.. Humphreys key
days" These were such days as Candlemas
day. st. Swithins day. Martinmas eve and so
forth. According to the "key day" theory the
prevailing weather on the IL days beginning
with Christmas day indicates the weather for
the coming year, month by month. The 25th
of December, therefore, would govern January;
the 26th February, and so forth.
But another theory states, according to DIR.
Humphreys, that "as the first day of January,
SO all the rest of the month; that the second
day of January, though itself already ruled by
the first determines the weather of February
and, strangely enough also that Of the follow
ing September; and that the Sd of January.
likewise ruled by the LIST, is model of the
coming March, The Sd is also credited with
fixing the weather of the following nine
weeks. That is. the Sd of January, though it
self controlled by the 1st, is true prototype
Of all the coming weather to the end OF
March-a big start, certainly, in the risky realm
Of long-range weather forecasting."
THEREFORE,. it will be seen that, before the
IL days beginning with December IS have
run their course, a new order Of forecasting
makes its debut to wit, "as the first day of
January so also the rest of the month";" and
so on. January l. as well as December IS, it
would seem, governs the weather for the month
of January and following logically, December 26
and January govern February; December 81.
January govern March, and so on, through
the 12-day cycle, it is presumed.
However, a greater range Is provided by
st. Paul's day, January u.s." says DIR. Hum
phreys, "for If it be fine, will be- it is said
all the rest of the year-a forecast for a little
more than IL months, which Is going some!
But even so, one often do better. We have
just seen that the 1st of January rules the
whole month"; hence, if the 1st be fine, so
must the 25th, of course, and from that in
turn all the rest of the year. Thus the range
such occasions is stretched to a full IL
months. Finally as November 81 is, so, they
tell us, will be the coming Winter. Now, the
coming Winter necessarily includes the LIST
of the coming January. Therefore, if the LIST
of any January happens to be fine day, so
must be not only all the rest of the year, but
also the 21st of November. In short, if ever
the 1st of January is a fine day, so win be
the weather forever" A sort of vicious circle
method of knowing just what the weather for
the year is going to be-.
Now for February 2, which DR.. Humphreys
takes up to the discomfort Of Mr.. Grounding.
"Other sayings of this kind are associated
with February 2, or Candlemas day. In fact.
it would seem that this is not only key day
but, like the Sd of January, master key day.
For instance, the Scotch say:
If Candlemas day be fair and clear
There'H be ttoG Winters in the year.
Nothing is said in this case about the con-
dition that would follow if the day happened
to be cloudy and rainy. Some one has sug-
gested, however, that this would be super
fiuous; that Scotland has twa' Winters in the
year in any case.
But this obvious deficiency in the forecast
has been remedied, completely if not elegantly.
as follows:
II Candlemas day be fair and bright,
Winter a0iH haze another flight.
But it Candlemas day brings cloud and rain,
Winter is gone, and mont come again.
"In America we very commonly call this
Grounding day, in allusion to the silly notion
that this hibernator always comes out to inspect
the weather on that particular date. If he
sees his shadow-that is, if the day be fair
and clear-he knows inStinctively that the
Winter is not over and goes back to his den
for another six weeks sleep. But if he sees
no shadow he stays out of his Winter stupor
for good, knowing that Spring has already
come.
I'm Germany substantially the same things
are said Of the badger. Perhaps therefore, the
grounding has his greatness thrust upon him
by the German immigrant, who, feeling the
of similar habits.
"In France the bear plays the same role as
. NrNf;uuod nm Ce,onfoDnfh Dane