Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-11-09
DIPLOMATS BELIEVE
JAPAN WILL YIELD
Diplomatic or Economic Boy
colt Threat May End
Invasion.
BY CONSTANTINE BROWN.

In spite of the threatening situation
in the Far East. the State Department
still believes that the Japanese govern
ment ultimately will comply with the
request of the Council Of the League Of
Nations and Of the United States Gov
eminent to cease hostilities in Man
| churia.
OF course, it is fully realized that the
recent Japanese move is not due to any
unforeseen contingency, but Is the re-
suit Of a we'll planned line of action Of
the japanese general staff. The Jap
aneSe are careful and aStute diplomats,
and they would not embark into any
warlike adventure without having well
considered beforehand the consequences
of their action. But once the situation
is we'll examined they proceed with
clocklike exactitude. and it would take
a powerful and concerted effort of all
civilized nations to induce japan to
withdraw from its present position.
For the time being two actions are
considered possible to bring the Japa-
nese to realize the importance Of the
engagements they took when they
signed the various pactS which insured
ChinaS territorial integrity and bind
forceful means. The first action would
be a diplomatic boycott; the other
would be an economic boycott. The
principal world powers would Join in
the first while China alone is likely to
exercise the second.
If the Japanese government continues
to disregard the request of the Council
of the League of Nations and of the
United States to withdraw its troops
from Manchuria, it may be put in. a
position similar to that Of Serbia some
80 years ago, when a group Of Serbian
officers, dissatisfied with the rule of the
then King Alexander Obrenovitch, in
vaded the royal palace, rnassacred the
King and the Queen and brought to the
throne the present Karageorgevitch dy-
nasty. European nations, horrifled at
the action, at the suggestion of Great
Britain, withdrew their Minister Pleni-
potentiary from Belgrade, leaving the
interests of their nationals in the hands
Of charges d'affaire. Diplomatically this
is the worst slap in the face Of a ma
ton.
Suggested for Japan.
This drastic measure has been sug-
gested from Europe to be taken against
Japan, if the Emperor's general staff
continues to f1aunt the repeated warn
ingS and requests Of the civilized
world to withdraw the japanese
troops from Manchuria. =
The Department of State is still Of
the opinion that such an action will
not be necessary and consequently has
not given any thought to the unofficial
suggestion which has come from
Geneva. There is every probability,
however, that should the japanese
prove as adamant as heretofore, some
drastic action will have to be taken
to save the prestige of the League of
Nations and to prove that the Kellogg
pact is not mere scrap of paper. A
withdrawal of the Ambassadors OF the
leading powers, while not affecting the
commercial relations between Japan
and the other powers, would mean an
insult which the proud Japanese En-
pire cannot easily afford.
Such a measure is not provided in
any international treaty; the League
of Nations statute provided for an eco
nomic boycott in case a member re-
fuses to abide by the decisions of
the council. Such a boycott by the
European powers and by the United
States cannot prove effective. nor does
lit appear advisable.
An effective boycott of Japan can
and is at the present moment exercised
by the Chinese people themselves. This
boycott, it is believed, will prove In the
end much more effective than any eco
nomic measures any outside power may
take.
China is completely disorganized; all
the ancient organizations have collapsed
except one, the Chinese Merchants and
Workers Guilds.
In the chaotic situation which pre-
walls in China those organizations have
remained as powerful as a century or
two ago. Ever since the japanese in
vaded Manchuria the Chinese guilds
have been busy and are now enforcing
a boycott of Japan which is almost as