Evening star., 1931-04-23
BUSINESS OUTLOOK
VIEWED BY R. c. DUN
Greater Efficiency Now Being
Generated May BE Felt
Later in Year.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

NEW YORK, April 23-The question
naturally arises as TO whether or not
the peak of activity for 1891 was
reached with the level which was at
tanned III the month of March. 1t will
be observed that in the years 1925, 1925,
1927 and 1929 the peak Of activity oc-
Cured in March, while in 1928 it was
reached in May, and although the peak
was actually reached in March of 1880
it was almost duplicated in May OF
that year. There is little evidence from
the fluctuations of this particular index,
therefore. which would lead the stu
dent to expect higher level of activity
later in the year than that of March.
II Is. of course true that October is a
month of increased activity prior to the
final year end reduction of operations.
At the present time it Is difficult to
predict industrial trends and sentiment
as far ahead as the Autumn. The
point should be made, however. that
October activity, according to this in
dex. has rarely been as great as that
of the early Spring, and that thereafter
there has been a general downward
trend to the end of the year.
The possibility still exists. of course,
that greater activity will be seen in May
than in March, as was the case in 1928,
and was almost the case in both 1926
and 1880. The fact, however, that the
seasonal gain from February to March
of 1880 amounted to only about two
thirds of the normal gain for that
period in spite of the noticeable i'm
provenent in business sentiment after
the close of 1880, suggests that this will
not be the case and that probably the
peak Of activity for 1891 has been seen.
This conclusion implies merely that ac-
tivity is unlikely to duplicate the March
peak and not that recession will not
cease before the end of the year.
Rcconstructive Forces May Be in
Motion.
It is hardly necessary to repeat the
comment that the public is inclined to
exaggerate. Two years ago, in the
midst of prosperity, expectations were
held which could not possibly have been
satisfied. Now. with conditions re-
versed, public opinion has swung to the
other extreme. Many predictions are
heard today which could only be full
filled if the business structure were to
disintegrate completely. While we must
face the facts without fear and with
out mitigation we must remember that
overemphasis Of the dfsagreeable as
poets of the present situation Is as un-
sound as was the expansive optimism
OF 1929
Valuable as statistics are in throwing
light upon the rate and direction of
industrial activity. they are necessarily
limited in their application. They can
not measure the extent of the economic
forces which are constantly at work to
remedy maladjustment and to prevent
the pendulum from swinging too far in
any one direction. Although these
forces are invisible in their operation,
their ultimate significance is as great as
that of any set OF known factors which
are measurable.
Periods such as the one through which
we are now passing generate a greater
degree OF efficiency than IS found in
an era of prosperity. The efficiency
leads to reappr2 isal of conditions, to
the ability to obtain the maximum from
what is offered, to gradual expansion.
and SO again to prosperity.
Firm FoundatiO Necessary.
There is. each year. definite incre-
ment to the wealth Of the entire world
and the individual Nation, which arises
lrcm the productivity of agriculture. 1t
is independent of prices which prevail
for farm produce, and takes its place
with other real wealth in the possession
OF the people, regardless of market
futuations. The greater selectivity and
concentration with which husbandry Is
practlccd as result OF periods OF de-
hation has often been a major factor
operating to set in motion constructive
forces.
For a number Of months industrial
activity has bsen contracting. Concur
rentiy, the excesses of the era of pros
pcrity were being corrected. 1t is ap-
parent from the lcngth of time which
has elapsed since defation first set in
that it should not continue a great deal
longer it may even now be generating
its own end. In all probability the re-
vival will be slow and gradual one,
and 1t is right that 1t should be so.
since only by this means can firm
foundation be laid and the evils of in
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