Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-09-27
LOT DEPENDS ON FRENCH
LEADERS, VISIT TO BERLIN
Political Situation in Europe Promising
for First Time in Two Years
Despite Pessimism.

However, this Franco-German ad-
justment clearly must be limited to q
relatively restricted field. Questions of
auctions, cannot be disposed Of nor
even discussed in detail Disarmament
is similarly "out." France will insist
that during the life of any loan Ger
many refrain from all attack upon the
status quo. The program of revision
of the Polish Corridor. the project of
the union of Austria and Germany,
will have to be dropped.
A moratorium OF five or ten years In
the present circumstances is the single
way out. That, after all, Is what Lo-
carno represented. For five years after
the agreement beside the Swiss italian
lake the great debate over the treaty Of
Versailles between France and Ger
MANY was adjourned. When, after the
death of Stresemann, it was resumed
last Fall during the German election
all the old evils Of the Ruhr period
returned.
with Labor out and Tory govern
ment in prospect, British policy IS al
berlain course. Now become a debtor
to France, Britain cannot afford to
conduct an anti-FTench policy. Every
consideration urges the British to seek
truce between Berlin and Paris. The
truce is possible only If Berlin makes
concessions. F..
Prestige without Parallel.
France seems intransigeant. She Is
victorious, her prestige is without pres
ent parallel. Napoleon after Erfurt
hardly had more power in Europe than
the present prime minister of the Third
Republic. But France, too, is begin
ming to be shaken by the general world
depression. Her trade is shrinking, her
economic outlook Is none too pleasing.
She. too. desires a continent made safe
for business. Her finances are as solid
as Gibraltar, but her economics can
catch the world disease. In fact, they
already measurably have become in
fected.
In the limited sense French security
Is absolute; it is French business which
is now vulnerable. The French not only
can afford to be reasonable; they have
every conceivable warrant for being
very reasonable within the limits Of
basic French policy. The Berlin con-
ference. therefore, may begin some
thing. German nationalism or French
nationalism may destroy this hope, but
the chance clearly is there.
There Is now only one real political
obstacle in the path Of a period of rela-
tive peace on the continent. That is
the Disarmament Conference. It can
only be a dog fight between the Euro
pean powers. It can accomplish moth
ing because the armed powers mean to
stay armed until they get the political
terms they are seeking. If the Geneva
conference is conducted seriously, 1t
will lead to a new crisis and fresh up
set.
/ don't believe that Europe viii per-
NIT that to happen. The conference
must be held, but between now and
February every circumstance points to-
ward a quiet agreement to meet. report
progress and ask leave to sit again.
In some fashion, by some prelimi-
nary agreement, disarmament will find
twilight sleep" waiting It at Geneva
in February, provided-always provided
that the present Berlin conference
turns out a beginning Of a political
moratorium. Otherwise nothing will
make any difference. Disarmament will
only supply a subject, an issue for a
further conflict. Thus II we have a
real truce IN Europe we shall have no
real disarmament conference, but, by
contrast, the worse the situation be-
comes the more serious the disarma-
dox but 1t Is also a fact. It may even
be that it will take an unsuccessful dis
armament conference to bring about a
change.
But unless one conceives Europe Is
Sow resolved upon suicide, there must
BE a turning back shortly, and I be-
lieve that turning back, however tenn
porary it may prove, is almost in sight.
Copyright, 1917