Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-08-09

recent years in either party. In nc
presidential situation in either party In
so years has any one aspirant fol
nomination been so far ahead a veal
in advance Of the event-except in the
case of Presidents in Office wishing tC
succeed themselves. Presidents in office
MIR. Coolidge in 1924, Woodrow Will
, son in 1916, Theodore Roosevelt in 1905
and so on backward--have often tai
though not always been taken for
granted as the nominees of their par
ties.
No other aspiran.. however, no as
pirant not already In office, has ever
been so nearly accepted as the probable
nominee, year in advance of the
of the election, as is the case with Gov
Franklin Roosevelt now. If there is
an exception it was Bryan in 1900.
But from another point OF view, Gov.
Roosevelt's position Is natural enough.
The reasons begin with the fact that
he is Governor of New York. New
York is the largest State. 1t has as
much weight In the electoral college
I47 votes, equal to the number of the
States Representatives and Senator'S in
Congress combined) as IL smaller
States. New York is almost Though
not quite) the decisive State in presi-
dental elections. It Is almost an axiom
(again, not quite) that neither party
can win q presidential election without
carrying New York. To put 1t the
other way round, whichever party
carries New York wins the presidency.
Following In state.
In this condition, In this immense
weight Of New York in presidential
elections--here is a Governor of New
York who has twice carried the State
for the governorship who after serv-
ing one term as Governor ran for re-
election, and in the second election
carried the State by the largest major
fly ever given any candidate for Gov
ernor.
To these indisputable facts about Gov.
Roosevelt may be added q condition that
Is In the field Of judgment Gov. Roose-
welt has been q satisfactory Governor.
That his first term must have been
satisfactory Is proved by the immensely
Of his majority when he ran for re-
election-on that point there can hardly
be any going behind the returns" AS
respects his second term, beginning last
January /, there has been no expression
by the electorate, but one would need to
have bias to assert. that Gov. Roosevelt's
last seven months have been materially
less satisfactory than his preceding two
years.
The sum Of which is that Gov. Roose-
getter in Rev York, and by inference
should be at least very good vote
getter In 1892.
That simple set Of facts about the
dominance of New York in presidential
elections and the record of Mr. Roose-
welt In carrying the State in elections
for Governor. plus the judgment that
Roosevelt as Governor apparently con-
tinues to be reasonably satisfactory to
the electorate Of his State-that COM
bination of facts and judgments carries
to- own conclusion TO the managers and
imhders Of any party.
IL points toward the nomination of
Mr.. Roosevelt for President as logical
So logical, indeed, that TO deny the
nomination to him would be an event
calling for explanation, would imply
something queer, either some undis-
closed weakness in the Governor or some
bias on the part of the party leadership.
That Gov. Roosevelt should be nominal
ed by the Democrats is, in short. so
logical as to have been almost inevitable
from the beginning.
Importance Of New York.
II Is this logical quality, arising out
Of Mr.. Roosevelt's relation to the largest
State-it is this, practically alone. that
gives Gov. Roosevelt his outstanding
leadership In the Democratic race. II
Mr.. Roosevelt were the Governor Of a
smaller State Gike Richie of Mary
land, or If he were now out of public
life, having only his wartime record as
Assistant Secretary Of the Navy (some-
what analogous to the case OF Newton
D. Baker Of Ohio)--in both those cases
aud IN a tyNan@f raSa ay(nf1t the f0Y-
tunate one he happens TO be In, Gov.
Roosevelt would have little show for
the nomination. He is not the first
choice Of the party managers and lead
ers-except as he Is commended to them
by his position in New York.
II Roosevelt were not Governor OF
New York; II, for example. Republic
can were Governor OF New York now,
80 that this factor need not be counted
lin that case Roosevelt would have
little chance In this condition, with
Rooseyelt's relation 10 New York not
figuring in the picture, any gathering
of the ten most powerful leaders OF
the Democratic party, or twenty, or a
hundred or a thousand, would not ar
rive at the nomination OF Roosevelt.
All the drys in such a gathering land
the drys are fully third Of any nor
mally balanced Democratic Gathering
would oppose Roosevelt, or at least be
indifferent to him, because Of his wet
ness. At the same time, practically all
the vets, II they were free to ignore
Rooseyelt's relation to New York, would
prefer what they regard as a more de-
pendable wet such as RitchIe, of Mary
land. On grounds other than prohibi-
ton most of the Democratic leaders in
the New York group" OF Eastern and
Northern states, would professionally
do prefer-Owen d. Young. A very
formidable group OF Democratic leaders
prefer Newton d. Baker, OF Ohio as
being. without much doubt. the ablest
man In the Democratic party who has
had experience In public life
All that. however, is speculation
about an IF" The ar does not in
fact exist Roosevelt is Governor OF
New York and that fact outbalances,
almost all other considerations.
What is said here does not mean
that the party leaders are reluctant to
practically all are pleased with the
prospect. They regard his relation to
New York as the determining factor
and outside Of that they certainly the
mass OF them think Of him as an en-
tIrely acceptable candidate
Source Of Leadership.
Ane leadership Oh 1oNeIHOI rkOpsSfcIe
In the Democratic race rests solely on
the fact that he Is the successful Co..
ernor OF. and a remarkable vot.-getter
in, the largest State. For his success as
Governor and as vote-getter he Is in
debted 70 his own qualities. For the
fact that he Is Governor for his opror-
tunity, he Is indebted TO Alfred z.
Smith Thereby hangs curious aspect
of this situation.
It Is commonly said that because Of
gratitude demanded by their relations
Ex-Governor Alfred e. Smith must sup
port Roosevelt for the Democratic
nomination. There Is no evidence so
far that Smith has toward Governor