Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-08-09
BY FRANK N. sIMoNDs.

lance; second, while months may yei
pass before the first steps are taken
payment Of debts and PREPARATIONS II
anything like the previous volume vii
never again take place; finally, al
French policy is now directed to the
double end Of keeping the door open
for new Franco German negotiations
but rigidiy restricting such negotiations
to French and German representatives
The failure of the Disarmament Con-
ference was assured by the French
note OF several weeks ago, announcing
q fiat and final refusal on the part OF
the French to consider further reduc-
tions in armed forces save in return
for political guarantees. This declara-
ton was reinforced a few days later by
a categorical statement OF the French
minister Of war, NJ. Maginot who is
also one Of the leaders of the largest
party in the coalition group, which
supports the Laval cabinet.
While there apparently sim exists in
Washington the hope that the French
will modify their stand, it is only
necessary to recall that the same hope
existed in the State Department be-
fore the London Naval Conference,
but was rudely shattered at the very
outset Of the London discussions. Sc
curity is not one of the things that
France can be persuaded to abandon
or limit And on this point the
the action Of the United States Senate
in rejecting the Paris agreements of
Wilson destroyed the AngIo-French
guarantee Of French security contained
in the tripartite treaty.
France Advantage Policy.
All French policy from 1920 to 1881
has been comprehended in the deter
minaticn to maintain her armies at a
point which would give her decisive
advantage over Germany Moreover,
so far from being isolated in the
Geneva Conference she will be. sup
ported by Poland, Czechoslovakia,
Jugoslavia and Rumania--that is, all
the considerably armed states in
Europe except Italy. All or these
states, too, are not only allies OF
France, but are IN receipt Of consider
able French loans. Money power and
military strength are thus united.
As to the matter of debts, it is now
apparent that. whatever happens, there
win be no swift and complete recovery
OF Germany In the next year. Thrown
back upon her own resources ewit1out
foreign loans. Germany is going to
have the worst Winter since the Ruhr
time. Even II she weathers this
financially and politically, she Is not
going TO be In q position next Summer
20 resllme her annual payments Of up
ward OF $450.Oo0Q00
Thus next July Germany WIN either
ask an extension Of the Hoover mora
toriuEn or demand the Dement'S of the
Young plan respite. In either case
she win pay little. Great Britain
whose situation has been already dis
q q Tnaf 49, 49,
crash and may be further affected BY
the expected German dumping to ac-
qutre foreign credits, viii be forced IN
that situation to ask for that mora
forum permitted her under her debt
settlement with us. and France and
Italy viii exercise the same right.
Meantime pressure viii be exerted
from al sides to bring about an actual
cancellation Of PREPARATIONS and debts.
FAILING this, nm even greater effort viii
DC made for . wholesale scaling down
OF both The British papers are
ezuitant, the French n1ournful over the
prospect that the Hoover moratorium
IS the first long step toward cancella-
ton on the part of the American
Government. The British are exultant
because they have always calculated
that this was the single solution The
French are InOurnful because repara-
tons abolished they would lose their
strongest hold on Germany.
Dependence on French Cash.
As to the future OF Franeo-German
discussions. all French press and other
comment shows that the French re-
garded the Paris and London confer
ences as successfui. because at both
germany failed TO get any new money
f<4nls No. l.
since the Hoover moratorium move
which was niomentarily disconcertine
n demonstrating to the Germans that
the British and Americans cannot
nelp them and that they must come
20 Paris TO get real cash.
The French believed before the Hoo
yer moratorium that they had succeeded
In beating Germany to her knees by
the withdrawal Of French slnort-terrl
loans from Berlin. They resented the
Hoover Intervention, because while 1t
olu not prevent the financial crisis
and the Germans did eventually come
to Paris; they rejected French terms
relying on British and American SUP
port. Since then the French have con-
centrated all their efforts on prevent
Ing aid 70 Germany from London or
New York.
That was the explanation Of the
French raid on the Bank OF England
The French were not in the least
interested IN doing any real injury.
but they desired TO produce q situation
serious enough to force the British, first
TO keep their money at home. and sec
ond, TO keep ia mind the extent IA
which France could injtire British
credit or, more exactly eulbarass
British bankers and industry, il they
were moved to fetaliake
France believes that IN the long run
she can force the Germans 70 come
TO Parts and accept French political
terms. She has refused every sort OF
invitation and appeal TO put her money
IN the German mess. she has left no
stone unturned 70 prevent America and
Britain from lending where she has re-
fused. 50 far the French success Is in
the main negative. They have pro-
duced the crash and isolated Germany
from al new loans. but they have not
bfcueht Germany TO surrender Pend
ing that time they are sitting back
waiting
Reeonciled 10 Waiting.
French information is very definite
on the point that Germany cannot pun
herself out Of her troubles BY her own
hoctstraps. The French are sure that
they are reconcileG TO waiting, even II
waiting proves to be long On the
other hand. they are Just as anxious
70 make Il easy for Germany to come
20 Paris. once she makes up her mind.
That IS the basis ~ all the pleasant
relations between Bruening and Laval
Brszening has been told IN nat terms
that the money ID waiting Mt his door,
~ he will agree To drop AnscilluSs
abandon the campaign for the revision
~ ttza onlfak, fss-nff&4sa ana nrron tfas
German demand at the forthcoming
Disarmament Conference Tor parity IN
armament with France Despite all
the emphasis laid upon Il. the detail
of the pocket hattleship a not linz
pprtsilt The French keep emphasizing
IL because they are aware that iB Il
aenSillVe point Tor The nrillah fer %.