Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-10-25
BURTON'S SLUMP THEORY
APPLIED TO PRESENT TIME
Invariable Cycle of Initiation and De.
flation Traced by Author to
Economic Treatise.

assign portentous causes-and In al
most all cases are wrong.
Right now, for example, and even
more during next years campaign II
the depression continues, divers Brook
harts and DR.. Buffers, divers profess
sors from the academic world and pun
dts from the business world. divers
lugubrious prophets of revolution and
a new form of organized society, such
as II. @. Wells, are telling uS the
causes" of the present depression.
list of the different causes" assigned
by various sources would include:
Overproduction. Foreign competition
(RuSSiaj. The bankers. Railroad rates.
Prohibition. Violation of prohibition.
President Hoover. Andrew Mellon. The
war debts. I'ne peace treaty. Goi1.
Silver Automobiles. Hoarding. SPEND
ing. Short skirts tbecause they fail to
consume enough cotton. Changing
national diet Eve don't eat enough to
consume what the farmers raise. The
tariff. Taxes. Chain stores. The
Sherman act.
Former DepreSsiOns Cited.
Now there was another depression
some so years ago in Great Britain
as we'll as the United States. Then, as
now self-choSen authorities. amateur
diagnosticians, recited the causes"
print below, from Senator Burton's book
(Which was published in 1902, list
of causes assigned to that earlier de-
preston by various politicians and
other leaders OF the 1870s and 1905
This list of so-called causes assigned
for the depression of the los is partly
in Senator Burton's own words and
partly in a satiric quotation by him
from the famous economist and logi-
clan. Prof. w. S. Jevons:
'Overproduction. Foreign competi-
ton. The Glasgow bank directors. High
telegraph rates. Beer drinking; The
use of tobacco. War. Peace. Trades
unionism. Want of gold Super-abun-
dance Of silver. Lord Beaconsfield
prime Minister of England). Mr.. Edi-
son and the electric light. Free rail-
road passes"
Those causes" assigned for the panic
Of so years ago were as irrelevant, as
fantastic and incongruous as most OF
the causes" assigned today for our
present depression. The truth is. you
don't need to search for the cause OF
depression. The cause of q depres-
sion is much like the cause Of low
tide. Depressions, cycles of alternat-
ing rise and fall are, in highly de-
veloped countries, as unacceptable as the
seasons and almost as regular. AS Bur-
ton put it. These periodic disturbances
will occur" Depressions come tnevi-
tably and. speaking generally, they all
follow a familiar pattern described by
John Stuart Mill:
Pattern is Regular.
After each panic or crisis the first
three years will witness diminished
trade, lack of employment. falling
prices, a lowering rate of interest and
very considerable distress. Then there
viii be three years of active trade.
slowly rising prices, fair employment,
improving credit. Then win come three
years of unduly excited trade. in which
speculation will be rife, prices viii rap
idly rise and an unusual number OF
new enterprises viii be begun. The
tenth year will be one of crisis, fol-
lowed again by three years Of depres-
What most of us today wish to know
is, when will the present depression
come to an end? On that point, here
is BurtonS ripe wisdom:
THE turning point is marked by no
such sudden shock like that which
characterized the crisis. It comes grad
ually and quietly and shows the work.
ing of recuperative forces, which are
sure to triumph"
Revival Unnoticed.
The end of depression, the begin
ming of prosperity, comes unnoticed.
And it comes solely because of recuper-
alive forces which are within the world
of business itself. Governmental action
can do little to help The speeches of
politicians, especially those running for
Office, help not at all. Cure comes
solely through the aggregate of the
working and planning of individuals,
such as those who now read this article,
in the solving of their personal prob
lens. AS Burton puts it:
I'm the meantime, individual effort
guided by intelligence and prudence,
and cooperating with forces which are
invariably though almost unconsciously
at work, solves the difficulty"
In Burton's quotation from Mills, the
statement Is made that following the
year when the crisis occurs, will come
three years when business is on the
down grade. 1t need not, however. be
as long as three years. The period of
depression, according to Burton, may
be longer or shorter, depending on what
might be called the residence" of q
people. He writes: THE mistake lies
in fixing definite duration for the
successive events of the cycle, and in
railing to sufficiently recognize eXcep-
tional conditions of time, place and
social or economic development. Much
depends upon the degree and rapidity
of industrial advancement the main
tenance of social order"
Senator Burton, if he were alive to-
day. would / suspect, direct his pene-
trating eye beneath the surface and
would ind already in existence those
'recuperative forces which are sure to
triumph"