Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-10-09
AUTO TRADE FACES
USED CAR PROBLEM
Upturn in Industry Awaits
Decline in Number of
Old Machines.
BY DAVID !. WILKIE.

OrTROIT. October 9.-The automo-
hle industry seemingly has settled Itself
down to the conclusion that the hcpeo-
for unturn in consumer demand SUN Is
some distance away. One OF the lat-
est authoritative estimates on the PROB
able total new-car sales for 1871
places the figure at probably less tnan
100000 units
The estimate is qualified, CT course,
with the statement that 'cecloeo
Improvement" during the remaining
Months of the year would upset this
estimate. At the same time there sp
pears to be general agreement tnA,
there will be no marked upturn during
the final months of the current year,
aside from some production stimulus
the introduction CT new models may
bring in November and December.
Engineers Plan for Revival.
II is a coincidence that at time
rhen business conditions have reduced
motor car production to its lowest point
in several wears. automotive engineers
having to do with the technical phases
Of nroduction should assemble here to
consider automobile output from every
angle-excepting perhaps TO depaVe
ways and means of stimulating cen
sumner demand. 1t is the tenth natlonai
production meeting OF the society "a
Automotive Engineers.
The discussions Of the engineers snow
they have not the slightest doubt that
the motor car industry VIII ultAildIet!
resume it's normal output. so Tar as
their activities in the laboratory are
concerned the business depression
never occurred.
Earlier in the current year not
little was heard in automobile circles
about suspended buying and backlog
of demand that must be released when
used cars were used up. AS the motor
ear industries recovery year pro-
crosses with little evidence of a sudden
breaking loose of theoretlcal Jam Oh
tuspended buying orders. less is heard
of the potentialities of this stored-up
consumer demand. There Is no as
position to deny that any improvement
in employment conditions Will be re-
fected. to some extent in an increased
retail demand for automobiles. Inefe
is however. no disposition now 10 pc
lieve that there will result any sudden
and large demand for new automobiles.
In considering the possibilities of the
situation created by two years OF down.
grade operation in the industry, Its
executives have given thought to the
fact that the approximately 2.OO0.0oo
vehicles sold this year will represent
practically 100 per cent replacement
purchases. OF course. they say, with
business conditions different and en-
ployment on the upgrade there would
be a considerably larger number OF
such requirements. At the same time,
they agree when wage earners' income
again permits them to purchase auto
mobiles, a large number will make
their initial investments in used cars.
Used-Car Situation.
So il is that nevery attempt to
eppraise conditions the industry is
likely to encounter after the turn OF
the year consideration is being given
more carefully than ever to the used
car situation. A problem to the in
dustry almost since the advent Of mass
production, the used car promises to
become an even greater perplexity in
the post-depression period. The in
dustry has been trying to anticipate
much of this problem in its constant
preaching to retailers against exorbi-
tant allowances on traded-in cars.
whether they be turned in on new
vehicles or as first payment on another
used machine.
1t appears to be the consensus of
automobile authorities that factory and
retail outlet will work more closely to-
gether than ever in the readjuStment
period that will come with the approach
of more normal conditions in the in
dustry. Where the factroy pressed the
retailer with constant shipments Of new
cars in 1929. forcing a pace the dis
tributors could not maintain, the re-
adjustment period will find the factory
producing just as many units as the
retailer can dispose of and no more.
1t is from this permanently controlled
production policy that the automobile
industry hopes to bring about an en-
tirely new era in its history. 1t is
policy the makers of motor cars hope
will operate for steadier all-year en-
ployment and a more even vear-around
spread of automobile output.
Technical Problems.
The automotive engineers in their
session here discussed most of the
technical problems involved in produc-
ing a motor car. from inventory control
to the preparation of sheet metal parts
for enameling. Most of the engineers
expect the next outstanding radical
engineering departure in motor car con-
struction to be further improvement in
transmissions and gear shifting. The
entire elimination of the present gear
shift box is one of the things they look
for in American-built cars in the not
very distant future.