Evening star., 1931-12-13
BY MARK SULLIVAN,

cratic leaders in two classes-the ma ior
leaders and the minor ones.
Most, indeed nearly all, the minor
Democratic leaders are for Roosevelt.
That Is not the accurate way to express
IT. Their line OF thought runs somewhat
ike this: Democratic chances for VIC
tory in the presidential election next
year seem good; the Democrats, they
think, can win with any good man
and Roosevelt, as they view it, Is at the
least one good man. If Newton D.
Baker were in Roosevelt's situation they
would equally favor or perhaps more
strongly favor Baker But Roosevelt is
far in the lead of the race so far as
there Is an active race, so why not let
him go ahead and have 1t? Why op-
pose him, why have a contest for the
nomination? A contest runs the risk of
! causing cleavage and thereby of causing
Democratic chances OF success in the
election to be less. The cards seem good
as they lie, so why not stand pat with
| the hand we have?
The minor Democratic leaders who
feel this way are those in the counties
| and precincts, men who have no fiery
| interest In issues, but would like to see
| party success, men who aspire perhaps
| 10 be postmasters, men who compose
the local centers of party organization
1t is from these that come the rather
frequent demonstrations and newspaper
interviews favoring Roosevelt.
Resent Impediments.
The disposition of these local Demo-
cratic leaders and workers grow steadily
more toward going on with a program
| that looks to letting Roosevelt have the
nomination. They are little irritated
by whatever seems an Impediment to
this course. They are little impatient
with ex-Gov Smith for his disposition
TO stand off from the Roosevelt move
ment. The local leaders nave no con-
Germ with the personal relations be-
| tween Roosevelt and Smith. They don't
much care where the net OF the debt of
| mutual gratitude lies as between the
two-whether Smith ought to be CRATE
ful to Roosevelt for risking his health
in 1928 to meet Smiths request that
Roosevelt run for Governor in order to
help Smith as the candidate for Presi-
dent, or whether Roosevelt ought to be
grateful to Smith for boosting Roose-
velt, somewhat unwillingly, into the
governorship, which now gives Roose-
velt his chance for the presidency.
1t was distinctly noticeable that the
local Democratic leaders throughout
the country were eager, as between the
bVO AilC1Ar w oCC ltNOoCFElb VIII WHEN
Smith appealed to the New York cleo
torate to vote against Roosevelt's posi-
tion on reforestation amendment to
the New York State constitution. It
was similarly noticeable that the local
Democratic press throughout the coun-
try was eager-perhapS more eager
than the facts warranted-to interpret
the outcome of that controversy on re-
forestation as victory for Roosevelt,
rebuke to Smith.
May Be Unable to Halt Him.
In short the local Democratic lead
ers and other local centers of influence
throughout the country tend more and
more TO go on with program that
seems likely to give the nomination to
Roosevelt, are more and more impa-
t1ent with the attitude of larger leaders
who are not ready to commit them
selves. The local leaders are pretty
powerful in the aggregate. If their
disposition to let Roosevelt have 1t
becomes much further crystallized, the
larger Leaders may find it inexpedient
to halt the movement.
Most Of the major Democratic lead
ers, on the other hand, are not strong
for Roosevelt. 1t would be difficult to
name one naticnal leader or one leader
OF first-rank Importance commanding
any large State. who is strong for
nominating Roosevelt. A few of these
are opposed to him; many are indif-
ferent or doubtful. They have. like
the minor leaders, decisive faith in
Democratic success next year. But the
major leaders, in proportion as they
have faith in success, are inclined to
gamble little on it. If we are SO
certain TO have success in the election,
they reason, why not do something
worthwhile with it? Why not nomi-
nate the nearest present-day equiva-
lent of Woodrow Wilson, or Grover
Cleveland-and by that, as rule, they
mean Newton D. Baker. In the same
spirit they reason that If we are sure
to be successful, why not have a can
didate known to be identified with, and |
able if President, to provide strong |
leadership for a definite set of clear |
cut policies about foreign relations, |
prohibition, the tariff.
Question Physical Ability.
The major leaders have questions In |
their minds about Roosevelts avail |
ability, about the state of his physical |
health and his capacity for endurance |
IN the extremely strenuous life that |
the presidency has come to be- This |
question would seem to be answered by |
Roosevelts ability to stand up without |
apparent handicap in the governorship |
OF the immense State of New York, |
which Is certainly a sufficiently diff |
cult and complex and burdensome job |
to provide a fair test. Nevertheless,
the major leaders have some appre
hension, either that Roosevelt's health |
would be an actual handicap, or that |
the Republicans in the campaign would
make it seem so.
The major leaders also have qualms
about the deflniteness of Roosevelt's
intellectual convictions on prohibition,
Tor example. AS to another set of
issues they are not clear and they
don't know whether Roosevelt is him
self clear, whether he belongs In the
classification of conservative or of rad
ical. Compared with Gov, Roosevelt.
the major Democratic leaders think of
newton Baker as having shown by
many tests that he has one of the very
pest minds in America, or in the mod
ern world, mind with clearly de-
nned set of convictions, which knows
exactly where it sets out for.
Most OF all, the major Democratic
leaders are certain they do not want
the presidential nomination, which does
not take place until next June, to be
1oreclosed at the present time They
|
welt, or against his friends, for an au-
parent determination to 60 ahead and
get the nomination ''in the bag" at a
time deemed by the national leaders to
be much too early.
Leaders Are in Control.
These national leaders have control
OF the situation They control enough
States and potential delegates to keep
the nomination in suspense, 1t Is COM
paratively easy to do that--compara-
lively easy to control a third of the
delegates-and thus hold a veto over \
The nomination in a convention in
which the rules require two-thirds 10
nominate
This Is the situation as of TODAY. It
aas been approximately the same for
some two years. Apparently this Demo-
ratio picture will remain the same
lnnl 1t passes into its next phase.