Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-07-26
Sale of Excess Goods in New
Markets Suggested as
Prosperity Aid.
0vERPRoDUCTIoN IDEA
DISPR0VED BY FIGURES
Statistics Show Reductions in Com
modify Output During Last
Year.
BY DIR. MAX WINKLER.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

BY DIR. MAX WINKLER.
Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, July 25.-Only a rela-
lively short while ago practically the
whole world was prosperous. The
United States was definitely in the lead.
Today We find mankind in a state
OF gloom and dependency All or most
OF the prophets who two years ago felt
convinced that the boom would con-
tinue, that there was nothing in the
situation to warrant anything but I'M
qualified optimism, are now equally out
spoken in their predictions that We are
in the midst OF a crisis the end of
which Is not in immediate sight These
prophecies will prove as unreliable as
did earlier predictions.
1t Is, however, of interest to recall
that many economists and serious stu
dents Of economics and finance incline
to ascribe all our present ills to the
problem Of overproduction. To begin
with, overproduction is rarely, If ever,
the cause, but rather the result, of eco
non1ic disturbances. Secondly, study
Of production figures for 1880, as COM
pared with 1929, and especially with
1928, reveals that the overproduction
idea is, on the whole, rather nlusory.
Production Compared.
We have selected eight principal
commodities, including wheat cotton,
sugar. copper, coffee, rubber, tin and
lead, and, with the exception of coffee,
we fail to discover any serious over
production in any of them. Compared
with 1928, three Of the commodities I'M
der review (wheat. copper and tin)
show definite declines, four Cotton,
sugar, coffee and RUBBER show in
rraacec Uhi1a one nnadl ShOwS no
change for 1880.
When comparison is made with 1929,
we find that, in 1890, five of the eight
commodities under review cotton, cop
per, rubber, tir and lead) show de-
creases and only three (wheat. sugar
and coffee commodities show a gain.
Account should also be taken Of the
fact that the population OF the world
has gained within the past three years,
indicating that, potentially, at least,
the consumptive capacity, even though
not actual consumption, of the world
has increased rather than fallen of.
In any event, the statistics cited
should tend to dispel the much-talked-
Of theory Of overproduction, because,
even absolutely speaking, the output Of
representative products in 1880 has not
only not increased as compared with
1928 and 1929, but has, in number Of
cases, registered losses.
Metal Output Decreased.
The decline is greatest in the output
of copper, of which 100000 long tons
were produced in 1880. a decrease Of
1925 per cent as compared with the
preceding year. and 6.18 per cent from
the 1928 output.
Tin production last year showed de-
cline of 8.71 per cent from 1929 figures,
and of 1.03 per cent as compared with
1928.
The output of lead was equal to the
1928 production, but showed a decline as
compared with 1929 of 4.93 per cent.
The decline in the production of cot
ton was relatively small, amounting to
only about .02 per cent as compared
with 1929 Compared with 1928. how
ever, last years output shows gain
of 9.42 per cent.
In the case of wheat. the increase In
1880 amounted to $40 per cent over
1929, while compared with 1928, there
was decline of $50 per cent.
In the case of coffee, the problem APP
pears rather a serious one. last years
output was more than twice the 1929
production and even in comparison with
1928 there was gain of 1927 per cent.
Rubber, tin and lead show rather APP
preciable declines from the 1929 pro-
duction figures, the losses aggregating,
respectively. 4.86, 8.7l and 4.93 per cent.
In comparison with 1928, the output OF
rubber showed an increase Of almost 25
per cent: that of tin showed a decline
of slightly over l per cent; while the
output Of lead showed no change.
Lack Of Balance.
The main causes of the economic dis
turbanca reside in the distinct lack of
balance between supply and demand,
which in turn is responsible for the
precipitous decline in the price of i'm
portant raw materials and agricultural
products. The re-esta bliShnent Of an
equilibrium between supply and demand
would, therefore, seem the most i'm
portant step which the world would
have to take in order to restore normal
tty for the American people as well as
for the rest of the world.
This could best be accomplished by
method devised by countries which pos
SeSS an abundant supply OF commodl-
ties and goods as we'll as adequate credit
facilities, which would render it possible
for countries with low standards Of liv-
ing, but high potential consumpt1ve
powers, to acquire, without UNDUE bur-
dens being placed upon them, such ex-
cess goods.
Prosperity of lasting character can
come only when wealth production is
shared by all, or, at least, by great
majority.
(Copyright, 1881. by North American News
paper Alliance, 1nc)