Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-05
TRADE PROSPECTS
IN 1881 ANALYzED
Outlook in important Lines
Is Given in Survey by
Economic Experts.
Special Dispatch to The star.

divisions of industry and trade are
summarized by the Standard Statistics
Co, of New York from it's first of the
year resume of the outlook Tor mpor-
tant lines, as follows:
Agricultural Machinery.-Net income
during the coming six months will be
moderately unfavorable in comparison
with the relatively profitable period
witnessed in the first half of 1880.
Aircraft.-Only the comparatively few
producers having a backlog of military
and airmail business will be able to
cover operating expenses over the next
few months.
AppareI-A substantial volume of re-
placement orders will probably be re-
ceived by manufacturers during the
early Eionths of the year.
Observation-Disclosures of cars and
trucks in the first quarter of the year
will probably fall materially below the
total of the like 1880 period. Second
quarter comparison, however, should be
relatively more favorable.
Automobile PartS.-Outlook for equip
ment operations during early future
months is for a relatively stable up
turn.
Automobile Tires.-A gradually ex-
banding volume Of tire production will
probably be witnessed in the early
months of 1881.
BuiIding.-It is probable that total
building construction in the flrst half
of 1881 will fab substantially below that
of the corresponding 1880 period.
acknowledgements profits in the
chemical industry taken as whole
during the first six months OF the year.
will probably fall moderately under
those of the first six months OF 1880.
Coal.-Substantial recovery in sales
of bituminous will doubtless be post
poned until late in the year, while earn
ings of producers and distributors OF
anthracite are likely to continue at
subnornal rate during the first half OF
1881
Copper.-Earnings will be moderately
below 1890 for the industry as whole.
Buying of the metal should be limited
to strictly current needs.
COtton.-Both domestic and foreign
consumption of cotton in the hrSt nall
of 1881 will continue well under that
Of the corresponding period Of the year
Just closed
Electrical Equipment.-Upturn in gen.
eral business would be Immediately re,
fiected in activity Of individual electrical
equipment companies, and long-term
outlook remains favorable.
Farm PrOductS.-Stabilizat oper-
aticns may cause values of the early
deliveries of wheat to hold within
narrow range during the next Few
months. A sharp and sustained ad-
vance in the price of corn Is unlikely
as long as the wheat market remains so
thoroughly depressed.
FertiIizers.-There seems no basis at
this time for expecting anything but
marked contraction in fertilizer sales
during the all-important Spring selling
season.
Food Products (other than meat).-
The outlook for dairying concerns and
for manufacturers Of leading package
foods is favorable for continuation OF
relative freedom from the eftects OF the
economic depression.
Household PrOducts.-Little, If any,
Improvement in sales and earnings Is
expected during the early months OF
1881, for the group as a whole.
Lead.-Withs the prospect Of burden
some supplies continuing through the
first half of 1881. at least, there seems
little ground for expecting Improvement
In prices.
tlrers for the first half of 1881 are ur1-
likely to equal the relatively satisfactory
results registered in the first half OF
1880, although only moderate decline
seems probable.
Machinery-It seems reasonable TO
expect at least seasonal gains in activity
during the next few months.
Office Equipment.-Only those pro-
ducers distributing equipment on
rental basis, will report favorable pronts
during the near term.
Paper.-The industry, over the hrst
half of 1881. may show gradual I'M
proyement for the dominant producers
in each of the respective lines.
PetroIeum.-For the full six months
ending June 80. next. aggregate profits
will probably fab below the levels OF
the first half Of either 1929 or 1881.
Radio.-There is little present basis
for expecting profitable results for the
majority Of set producers in, the first
half of the year.
Railroads-A gradual upturn in rev.
enue from freight car loadings Is indi-
Gated for the first half OF 1881.
Railroad Equipment.-Asidef from the
signal equipment and car-leasing dlvi-
sions, the balance Of the industry races
the prospect of a comparatively small
volume of new orders.
Rayon.-Evidence is lacking that
operating results will undergo any sub
stantial improvement in the next SIX
months. though sales should register
some recovery this Spring.
Retail Trade.-It is improbable that
first-quarter profits OF most retailers
will make a favorable comparison with
those for the similar 1880 period.
Greater gains in sales volume are In
dicated during the second quarter Of
the year.
Rubber-There seems no basis for a.
sharp and sustained price advance dur
ing the near term.
Shippinfi.-More favorably situated
yards will continue to benefit from pres
ent program of Federal aid. and income
during 1891 should be maintained at
relatively high level.
Silk Goods.-First half of 1881 offers
the prospect of gradual increase in con-
sumption of finished goods.
SteeI-Demand for early 1891 re-
quirements. already appearing, augurs
well for an early start toward seasonal
expansion.
Sugar.-Looking forward over the
next six month, the outlook for sugar
prices continues highly uncertain.
Theaters.-Total trade earnings for
the first half of 1881, at least, will
prcoa bly, be somewhat below those Of
like period in 1880
Tobacco.-June. 1881, half aggregate
cigarette earnings may decline slightly
from those of the first half of 1880,
although comparison should be rela-
lively favorable. 1t is not likely, though,
that cigar industry earnings will fully
equal those of the June, 1880. half.
UtilitieS.-Concerning the outlook for
electrical companies for the initial half
Of 1881, there is at this time little rea-
son for expecting that any distinct i'm
provement is in prospect, at least for the
first three months. For the longer
term it would seem that utilization of
electrical energy has not yet and will
not for several years, at least, attain
its fullest extent During the next
three months business curtailment will
doubtless continue to restrict growth of
telephone earnings; any improvement in
fundamental business conditions accru-
ing over the Spring months, however,