Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-04-17
GERMANY EXPECTED
TO PAY THIS YEAR
Export Surplus Indicates
Money Can Be Raised With
out Further Debts.
BY EDGAR ANsEL MowRER.


BY Gable to The Star.
BERLIN, Germany, April IT,
Granted commercial stability, Germany
this year will be able to. meet the
Young plan. reparatiops payments and
the interest on all foreign debts
equalize the balance of payments-for
stabilized, without further borrowing Of
any type.
This is the tremendous assumption to
be drawn from the published figures for
the export surplus for the month of
March,
This figure, including deliveries in
kind, amounts to about 263, 900, 900
marks (about sos, 750, 000). The total
export surplus for the first three months
marks (about $3.50, 000, 000). Last years
figure for the same quarter was only
22l 100000 marks (55,250,000).
Surplus Near 500, GEO. 200.
Assuming the same seasonal fsSNctua-
tons to hold as last year, this years
balance payment should show a total
export surplus Of nearly 2,soo. 00o. 900
marks ($7o0. O00.000). as against
year. This is almost the identical sum
commonly assumed by experts to be
needed by the Germans
The reuarations payments amount to
about 300, 000, 900 marks ($450, 900 ,000)
annually and the interest on private
debts abroad is about 100000, 900
($250, 000.0o0). Granted the fact that
German invisible items are active. this
would leave Germany in possession of
an active balance for payments.
These remarks, however theoretical,
mt n en- tn1f
an almost overwhelming argument
against John MAYNARD Keynes. Moulton,
Mcguire and other economists, who
have coniured up the spectre Of trans
fer difficulty as an impeachment to repa-
ration payments.
Transfer Trouble Temporary.
Orthodox economists have ALWAYS
maintained that the transfer difiiculty
would be only temporarily possible.
since reparation payments from sound
needed EXPORT surplus. This fact is
being SPEEDILY demonstrated by events.
The chances now ere 10 to l thet
either this or the following year will
show the needed exports
This does not meen that the repara-
tons. carnot be certainly paid at the
present height. It simply. shifts the
problem from NEUROLOGICAL one to the
real one Of collecting the necessary
sums as taxes.
This sgain-is PSYCHOLOGICAL problem
The sums demanded are there but will
the peop'e in their present frame Of
mind GLOW them to be collected ct a
time when the government Is struggling
with the heavy burden of unemployment
and tax returns are steadily diminish
ing?
Imports Are Held Down.
This question only the future can de-
eide, but it can be hoped that the pres
ent published figures will bsgin to
silence the prophets Of the transfer i'm
possibility thesis who are muddying the
waters.
There Is reason to believe that the
German government, confident that it
can secure payment reductions only by
paving-that is, by flooding the world
with German goods-has adopted a firm
policy of furthering exports and throt-
Ting imports with this aim in mind and
that the entire present policy of en-
couraging production of native grown
foodstuffs is largely justified on this
basis and that some Germans are con-
fident that should prosperity return
their exports surplus can be driven high
above the present figures.
Copyright, 1917