Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-05-03
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

the North and East. Their Judgment
will be decisive.
1t Is true that Gov. Roosevelt is far
on the way toward the prize. But he
will not get 1t unless these leaders deem
it wise he should have 1t. II all the
roughly LOO delegates who will make
up the national convention should vote
their present personal inclinations
Roosevelt would have close to the nee
essary two-thirds.
But not all and not even half the
delegates will vote according to their
own offhand inclinations; They will
not want to. They would feel lost If
they had to. What they will want and
turn to is guidance from men to whom
they are accustomed to look for leader
ship.
A wise and experienced politica' OBJ
| server has expressed 1t by saying that
In any national convention the mass
of delegates are men who take orders"
while about so are men who give
orders" To describe the situation in
terms Of orders" is misleading. Ger
tainly It would be more accurately de-
scribed as a willing difference by groups
of delegates to leaders whose guidance
they have depended upon in the past.
However the process be phrased, it
Is leaders that count. For example. in
every Democratic national convention in
recent years, all the delegates from
New Jersey have voted as a solid unit
for one presidential candidate or an
other. Does this mean that each of
these 80 men has happened to have
exactly the same individual preference,
and that at a certain point in the ballot
ing they have all changed their pref
erence simultaneously to another can
didate?
| New Jersey Is Typical,
OF course it does not mean that. It
means that in New Jersey taking that
State as typicaD the local Democratic
workers In the counties and cities from
among whom the delegates Gomez have
been accustomed to cooperate with and
be guided by some one State leader. or
a small group Of two or three State
leaders. This State leader, in turn, de-
termineS his action by consultation with
leaders from other States with whom
he has co-operated In the past.
In the coming national convention,
does any one doubt that all the "a
delegates from New York State with
possibly three or four eccentric excep-
tions) will be guided by two CT three
State leaders? Or that all the IA dele
gates from Pennsylvania Excepting q
few dry ones from rural districts) will
be guided by one or two State leaders?
Or that practically every delegate from
Ohio will take the guidance of Gov
George White and ex-Gov. James NJ
Cox (who will be careful to agree with
each other or that all the delegates
from Illinois excepting the dry ones
from q few districts down Staten will
follow q single leader? Or that all the
delegates from Maryland will follow
the leadership Of Gov. Richie and his
friends?
one could similarly call the roll OF
many other States-Connecticut Mas
Sachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hamp-
shire-in which all of cor in some
cases the mass Of the delegates will
follow the guidance OF their State
leaders.
It is the leaders that count. Gov.
Roosevelt may have as many as 400 or
$50 delegates as the result of his own
spontaneous momentum. And Of the
lack Of other aggressive candidates
continueS) whether he reaches the two
thirds (roughly 73D necessary to
nominate, depends upon whether the
leaders, looking upon conditions at the
time of the convention, deem 1t wise to
nominate him.
Opinions Not Certain.
The present state Of mind Of these
| leaders about Roosevelt Is inconclusive.
Any one who talks with them flnds
them not sure Of their own minds.
Taking them as a group. they are not
strongly for him. 1t Is difncult to
guess what they would do If the date
Of the national convention were ad-
vanced q year, and If the necessity for
final choice were Immediately ahead of
| them. First of all they would consult
with each other, and the consultation
would consist in part at least OF an
exchange of misgivings.
Most OF the leaders who will deter
! mine RooSevelt'S fate are wet. the dry
| leaders in the coming national conven-
ton will stand of by themselves with
a candidate of their OWN The wet
leaders are uncertain whether Roose-
welt is as wet as they deem 1t best the
next Democratic nominee should be-
They query In their own minds whether
| Roosevelt would intellectually put
his shoulders behind an Affirmative wet
program: whether he would live en-
Enthusiastically UP to their determination
to make the Democratic party com
| pletely wet whether he would put his
heart into an effort to drive wet legiS-
lation through Congress and to get the
eighteenth amendment out of the Con-
Stitution.
They are troubled about RooSevelt's
relation to the Tammany scandals-not,
of course. in any sense that the scan
dalS touch Roosevelt. for they do not.
But the national leaders feel fairly sure
that things are pretty bad in Tammany,
that there will be series of explosions.
that some of the explosions may blow
l'off right in the midst Of the PreSiden-
tial campaign next year. Throughout
all these disclosures Roosevelt as Cover
nor of New York will have an uneS-
capable responsibility for saying how
far the disclosures and the subsequent
Hrk~v hall for
situation, all charged with political
dynamite. will be up to" Roosevelt.
Within the last 10 days 1t has been UP
to Roosevelt to say what should be
done about formal and serious charges
against the Tammany Mayor OF New
York City.
Tammany Explosion Felt.
That situation, SO the Democratic
leaders anticipate, will be repeated over
and over, in varying forms, right UP to
the Presidential election of 1882. The
leaders, considering whether or not 1t
is best to make Roosevelt the Presi-
Dental nominee. wonder whether the
New York Governor may let his foot
he may err ON the side of severity,
which would queer" him with the
party in his own State; or on the side
Of leniency, which would queer" him
with the country outside of New York.
Many experienced, hard boiled leaders,
rather sympathetic to Roosevelt, think
1t can be only political miracle If the
New York Governor can walk forward
through o year and half Of explosions
about Tammany without making some
misstep. Thinking that, they wonder
II 1t would not be better to name a
Presidential candidate having no faint
est contact with Tammany-one from
outside New York, such as Newton d.
Baker Of Ohio, or one from outside