Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-04-19


Dr.. c. G. Abbot of the Smithsonian In
stitution reading the PyTheliOmeter
which measures the total Tsdi0tiOB re-
ceiUed from the sun.
making rain. Science knows how TO Try, it
knows the recipe II you win. but rainmaking
Is Natures task. It Is too big job for human
beings to accomplish.
"It's like telling somebody to pick up the
Washington Monument and walk OF with 1t,
DR.. Humphreys said II know all the motions
myself. But show me the man who could do it.
Some jobs are on too big q scale for the puny
strength Of mere man and I'm inclined to think
that rainmaking is of them. professional
rainmakers to the contrary notwithstanding"
For an answer to the question Of whether
science was making progress In long-range
weather forecasting. DR.. G. L Mitchell, princi-
pal meteorologist of the Weather Bureau and
one OF the Official forecasters for the Eastern
district of the United States, was consulted.
It was pointed out that trials In long-distance
forecasting are being made In various parS Of
the world today but that few Of them, II any.
can be said to be dependably successful. In
India a small amount Of this type Of focecAsting
has been done with partial success. MonsoOns
have been predicted in certain parts Of that
country as much Is three or four months In
advance by getting what Is called the correla-
ton between something happening IN other
parts Of the world and what happens In that
region some days weeks later.
TN California, ct the 5cripps Institute, some
similar work is being carried cut with less
marked success, bait still with some degree q
accuracy. This scientific organisation IN sftAa.
ated in a section where climatic conditions are
somewhat similar to those OF India In that they
follow q more or less routine schedule with H.
tie range In temperature or Disturbances in the
atmosphere over given period from year to
year.
aside from these California trials, virtually
no long-range forecasting has ever been made
or Is likely to be made with any consistent ac-
curacy in this country" DR.. Mitchell said.
Nov and then We can fOreSee general condi-
tons week or 10 days ahead, bat this Is a.
far as we've been able to go successfully.
'The drought of the last year, while unusual
for this part of the world was not n forewarn-
ing Of the approaching millennium or any Ct
the other epochal things suggested by the SD
perstitous," he added.
'It was just one of those things that occur
during the natural course 81 events. Droughts
are occurring somewhere In the world con-
tinually. About once ever 90 often It would b
our turn, no matter who we are. I'm the mast
populous portions q the globe, though mnch
more frequent in some places than tn Others.
II this same drought had occurred, Is Q drought
30 O1Ven 0OeS, Over bkAG MA0-VCe@n u WoAx10 NOT
have been noticed. II it had occurred On some
desert island or IN some county accustomed to
lond periods Of dry weather. probably no enc
would have heard Of ii. hut It happened to
occur in oar part Of the world. where weather
conditions usually are 50 temperate that any
thing so pronounced naturally would create
comment rs web as agricultural stress and
where, might add, have exceedingly ell
Gent news services TO broadcast the caprices OF
the weather.
'"The drought and the accompanying mild
Winter We have had in the vicinity of WASH
ington is no indication that climatic conditions
are undergoing any permanent change in this
region.
Mature enjoys her little vagaries and is like
the enigmatic siren whose temperS and moods
no one can foretel- We know, generally SPEAK
ing, that the temperature is liable to range be-
tween zero and 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the
zone of the United States, but beyond that We
would not dare to predict. It would not be
thinkable for US to have a stretch of sub-zero
weather in the Winter and period of tropical
heat in the Midsummer, as we had last year
How to predict weather more than 10 days
ahead of time in this part of the country
do not know. If We are ever able to accomplish
it, the local weather bureau will have to have
at hand weather charts showing conditions all
over the world simultaneously"