Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-09-20
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

| OLIy IllklC AHOLA0kAc e4sCA bAAIsst va
ternber is, 1927, cotton sold at gas
cents a pound.
Here in nine months, cotton more
than doubled in price. That happened
only about five years ago.
For memories a little longer, con-
slider another contrast.
In 1921, on April Is, cotton sold at
90 cents pound. Twenty montns iateI,
on December IS, 1922, cotton sold at
PAP cents a pound-conSide more
than double.
Here within 10 years is the record
of cotton doubling in price on two dit-
ferent occaSionS-once IN less tnan a
year, and once in less than two years.
on the broadest grounds, to persons
interested in business, in present bad
times and future good times, tnat con-
how quickly the condition we cal Ine
times can reverse itself.
since this article is about national
notifies 1t will consider the limited
subject of the effect of business conoi-
tions on the presidential election, now
due to take place in less than IA
months, and already simmering.
AS Of today, or as OF the near Iuture'
the party in power, the Republicans,
must be said to have hardly China
mans chance. What chance they may
| nave would be due, not to their own
virtsIes. but to some mistake their OPP
| nonents may make. If the election
we're to be held in the coming Novem-
Der of this year, instead OF November
next year, the Republicans, ACCORDING
to practically every disinteresteo luus-
overwhelrnino defeat. The principal
cause Of their defeat would be the state
| Of the times.
why Cleveland Went Out.
II would be the same II the condi-
tions were reversed, with the Demo-
| cats In and the Republicans out. II
was the same In 1888, when the Demo-
Gratis under Grover Cievelano Were II, II
mower and were swept out, in part by
= Condition of hard times much less
severe than the present.
AS of today, control Of the Govern
nert is to the Democrats a promised
| land plainly in sight, with only the
River Jordan to cross, and apparently
the bed Of the river dry for their eager
footsteps. $50,
lican fortunes, the chief reason Is the
tate of the times. It ia an incident q
| the mood Of depression. In many sec
| tions of the country Though not ALI
1 many people are not only disSatisneo
with the party in power, they are Dit
ter against IT, Testimony TO that eHect
Is frequent. People remember that the
Republicans took. credit for tne pesloo
81 prosperity yhat ended in 1929, that
! the F2er,Iblicans historically insist that
only through them can the country en-
| TOW good timeb-people recall that, ana
feel disillusioned, disappointed, let
down" as the English say. From winch
II follows that practically the only nope
Of the Republicans lies In the poSsiDlnsy
that during the coming IS months some
sIIch swift reversal of business condl-
| tinng NAV take place as Is illustrated
/ bv the doubling Of the price OF cotton
in 1857 and again In 192l-22. That
possibility. plus the other one, the pos
sibiiitv Of fatal mistakes by the Demo-
! crats, constitutes pretty nearly the whole
| hope of the Republicans.
|, Not that cotton specifically affects the
Republicans-cotton Is Democratlc
crop. Cotton Is alluded TO mere oniy g.
| an Index, an illustration OF now quickly
| in America o downward trend OF COM
/ modify prices can reverse itself: Eor
! the purpose of this article, better
| illustration would be q crop raised In
the Midwest, wheat, for example OF
corn. =, a.
arv. 1925, wheat sold at $2.2OE
blIshel-a doubling Of price within less
than year.
Corn Prices Also Double.
In January. 1928, corn sold at 69h
cents a bushel; in December, 1879, IL
sold at $I.351a-again doubling
From which it follows that the more
than 10 months between now and the
election is sufficient time for the oc.
cIIrrence of q doubling in the price OF
cotton. as well as wheat and corn and
/ commodities in general. Such dou-
| hing is possible-often before 1t has
happened within that space OF time:
It is asserted here as possibnlty, ana
q possibility only. Most decidedly IL Is
not put forth as o prediction. For the
moment the writer Of this article is re-
straining all impulses to predict. But
outside the field of prediction, in the
! field of assertion about existing con0l-
tions, 1t is quite safe to say that the
Republicans could hardly hope TO win
q presidential election today, ana can
| only hope to win one next year under
the condition that times become peter.
| To this assertion, that change In
the conditions of business constitutes
almost the only hope the Republicans
have, there are two qualifications, one
running in favor of the Republicans,
the other against them.
For the Republicans to have g fair
chance Of winning next year, 1t Is not
necessary that commodity prices double.
It is not necessary that In 1879 100 we pc
back to where we were in 192S-one
hopes, indeed, we will never be back
there.
but for the party in power to remain
| in mower IL is necessary that there be
a definite, universal feeling that the
business tide has turned and that we
are on the upward way. A mere reel
ing that the sap in the business Lree
| is rising, and the continuation OF that
4 feeling long enough to give sense OF
| confidence and security-that would be
enough, not perhaps to elect the Re
publicans, but to give them chance.
1 Unless such a turn in the tide is ahead
of us, then the lot of the Republicans
may be described in the phrase that
Southern Democrats sometimes use 10
express the ultimate OF rigor mortls,
1.-THE hogs eyes are sot"
To a partial extent, the Republicans
will suffer next year from todays con-
4 ditions, even though these conditions
improve. During the period while
present conditions last, voters get Bit
ter and become, so to speak, "Sot IN
their bitterness" They acquire a mem
tai and emotional bias against the
| Or they 20 on record with strong as
sertions Of resentment against the
party in power, and, having gone on
record, dislike to reverse themselves in
the sight of 1eering neighbors. A voter,
or leader or q newspaper, which says
in September. 1881, that the Republic
cans are all wrong. nnds. it difncult TO
bring himself to supporting the party
in 1892.
Occasional Coolidge Cry.
A conspicuous example Of this 4 the
occasional breaking out Of the Back
to Coolidge" cry. A voter, or leader,
or newspaper who demands that the