Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-10-31
BUSINESS OUTLOOK
FORECASTS DIFFER
Prospects in Various Lines
Viewed From Standpoint
Of StatisticianS.

Advertising Little IetaLlVe lllpEOFe-
Hncnt in aggregate advertising H looked
for during the remainder Of 1881.
Agricultural Machinery. Recent
strength In prices for farm products
may afford a moderate stimulus 10 FaI
sales OF agricultural equipment, but
any pronounced revival OF activity Is
not in early prospect.
Aircraft The policy OF restricting
output TO sales requirements Is an en-
couraging factor and should largely
eliminate the substantial inventory
vrite-offs found necessary IN previous
years.
Apparel-Expanded consumption of
apparel and furnishings has been large
" offset by lower selling prices and
profit margins In the trade have mar
rowed.
Automobiles .-Drastic reduction OF
expenses has been effected by the more
efficient producers during the current
period of depressed demand, placing
these companies in favorable position
TO exact considerably larger profits with
the Inauguration OF general trade i'm
provement.
Automobile Parts.-A gradual expan-
sion OF equipment outturn Is indicated
for the final weeks Of 1881.
Automobile Tires -Longer term pros
poets are clouded by the unsettled con-
ditions resulting from excessive pro-
ducing capacity and unsound distribu-
tive practices.
Building.--For the industry as a
whole, there is no prospect OF coun-
ter-seasonal trend during the late Fall
and Winter.
Observation-Disclosures widely diver
eif1ed demand and important operating
economies effected, profits in this trade
should continue to hold up better than
average.
Coai-Hand : to mouth purchasing
policies on the part Of consumers likely
win prevent pre-stocking of full seasons
requirements, although indicating
fairly steady demand throughout the
Winter months for anthracite. The
outlook for operations Of large consum-
ers or bituminous does not indicate in
creased takings during the early future.
Print Cloths in Demand.
Cotton Goods.-Recent price Arm
ness in print cloths will stimulate net
returns to some extent.
Electrical Equipment. - Profits in
many instances are being obtained only
through very rigid control Of manufac-
turing costs. and earnings for the full
year will be the lowest in years.
Fertilizers. - Manufacturers opera
tions in this field doubtless will remain
at improbable levels for some time
to come.
Food Products (Other than Meats -
The industry as a whole is making an
outstandingly favorable showing. Pro-
ducers of package foods, dairy products,
flour and biscuit will come fairly close
this year to duplicating the high level
of earnings recorded in 1890. Bread
bakers and Gamers of fruits and vege-
tables, depressed by low prices, viii
make unsatisfactory showingS.
Lead and Zinc.-Although prices re-
Gently have weakened, the statistical
position of both metals is trending
toward improvement.
Leather.--f shoe prices can be sta
bilized around present levels without
sacrificing volume. earnings Of the
leading producers should be fairly well
maintained.
Machinery.-Any significant advance
in trade activity must await the turn
of the year.
Metal COMMUNICATIONS can COM
panies will probably report profits this
year at least IS per cent smaller than
those of 1890. Several factors, how
earnings particularly the prospect of
a smaller carry-over of canned goods
into 1892
Office MISUNDERSTANDING recovery
in the trade, broadly considered will
be relatively slow.
Paper. - Generally, the outlook
throughout the industry is for full year
earnings of extremely small proper
tions.
Petroleum Earnings of practically
all oil companies will be unsatisfactory
this year.
Status of Radio Trade.
Radio.-The majority Of manufac-
turerS undoubtedly will record net
deficits from full year 1881 operations.
Railroads. Freight car loadingS are
running about 30 per cent below those
OF year ago, although the compare
tive spread with 1880 totals is showing
some tendency to narrow.
Railroad Equipment.-Return to sub
stantial earning power in this field
naturally must be preceded by a funda-
mental upturn in railroad trafic and
earnings.
Rayon.-Although recent price ad-
vance on $50 denier rayon of knitting
quality on cones may widen profit mar
gins somewhat, this action has been
Offset to some extent by corresponding
reductions on the smaller sizes.
Retail Trade.-Full year earnings will
be benefited by the comparative Stabil-
1ty OF commodity prices through the
losses; together with operating econ
omles effected, these factors will per-
NIT 1881 income betterment by many
concerns notwithstanding a lower ag-
Sreeate sales volume than in 1880.
Shipping Little if any improvement
IN rates and traffic can be expected
during the balance OF 1881.
silk Goods. Despite somewhat in
creased ta6ings low prices have mar
rowed profit margins and returns OF
most units VIII probably show relatively
little Improvement
Steel.1While benefits from recent
wage reductions viii be reflected in
present quarter results. low volume OF
sales will prevent profitable operations
1or the great majority of producers.
Sugar Outlook Brighter.
Sugar.-NeXt year considerable i'm
provenent should be shown in profits
Of producers, provided quotations 70!
sugar register the gradual progress
which is now expected.
Theaters. Aggregate net for the flll
year Will probably be more than Sc
per cent below that reported for 1880
Tabacco.-With the restoration pi
more normal conditions. cigarette with
orawalS Will probably resume their eN.
pansion. Aggregate cigar consumption
continues TO make unfsvorable com.
parlSon with that of a year ago.
UtllitleSs-The lower demand for cleo
trical industrial energy is preventing
most companies from operating on thu
most efficient basis possible and fixeC
costs have been mounting
Capital structures Of manufacturer
gas companies have been relatively wei
stabilized and profits this year will b
very close To 1880 levels
Consumption of natural gas so IA,
this year is approximately 10 per cen
below the levels OF 1880 and ii is prob
able that more extensive decline VII
be recorded in earnings for the full
current Nhar