Evening star., 1931-12-06


more often than with the Republicans
In the House the situation will be
somewhat the same. with the parties
reversed. The Democrats In the House,
like the Republicans in the Senate,
have paper majority, but not real
one. g.-
Speaker Garner was raised In the
"cow country" He knows what is meant
by riding herd" He knows that no
cowboy friend Of his youth ever had
so hard job as he himself Is now
about to have. Garner knows that and
the marks Of anxiety that 60 with his
knowledge have already appeared In
deepening lines on his ruddy counte-
nance. S.
Garner knows the inherent cleavage
among the Democrats, party leaders
know 1t, political observers know it,
every one on the inside of politics knows
1t. The public does not know it yet,
but soon will. The public has been ia
miliar for years with the chasm be-
tween Republicans" and Progressive
Republicans" What the public is now
about to learn is that there is In the
Democratic party a latent cleavage
deeper and wider than the one in the
Republican. 80
= The Democratic cleavage does not fol-
~" OiAC opIllC AlllC do IIlS
one. The Republican cleavage between
Western Progressives and Eastern con-
servatives is mainly on economic issues.
The Democratic cleavage between the
Southern States and Northern cities.
especially Tammany, includes to some
extent economic issues, but also sec-s
tional self-consciousness and sectional
pride, dissimilarity Of tradition, acutely
controversial difference of policy about
immigration restriction and also pro-
hibition. The difference between q
Tammany Democrat and a Southern
one on such issues as prohibition and
immigration Is very real. Now that the
Democrats have responsibility the cleav-.
age will come to the surface.
Motive for Harmony.
1t will take a miracle of tact on
the part of Speaker Garner TO keep his
party from flying to pieces. The Demo-
Gratis have, it Is true, many good rea-
sons to strive hard for harmony. They.
are in power in one branch of the
Government for the first time in Ia
years. They are, therefore, and for
other reasons, conspicuous in the sight
OF the public. This they realize. They
know their behavior in this Congress,
the impression they make on the pub
lie will be the largest single factor
bearing on their chance to win next
years presidential election. They want
desperately to win the presidency; that
is the most urgent motive they have.
They genuinely want to avoid rows,
genuinely wish to show the country
that they can run the House of Repre-
sentatives in a decorous and orderly
way. They know that on this particular
point the public is little suspicious
Of the Democrats, that the public re-
members the 1924 National Convention
and the fight between McAdoo and
Smith, which lasted over two weeks.
They know the public tends to think
the Democrats are rather given to
chaos, to Donnybrook fairs and Kill
kenny noises
The Democrats know all this and
they want desperately to be harmo-
nious. Maybe they can achieve 1t. II
they do Speaker Garner should 20
down in history-Texan and Ameri-
| can-as the greatest rounder-up of
mavericks, the most soothing crooner
of pactfying melodies that ever rode
herd" on beasts or men.
There Is one possibility in this ses-
sion OF Congress which-n 1t comes to
the front at all-will overshadow every.
thing else. This possibility can be
called the money ISSUE" or the cheap
money issue" or the silver issue" or
the "bimetallism issue" If it comes to
the front In this Congress it will re-
main to the front for the coming presi-
Dental campaign, and If it comes to
the front at all 1t will oyershadow
everything else; it will come with the
force either of a tide or of a cyclone,
and in either case 1t will come for
midably.
Whether 1t will come depends on the
price OF commodities. I cannot put 1t
better than put 1t in this paper once
before, on October Is last:
Tell me whether the price of wheat
SIX months from now will be, roughly,
the same as now, and other comlnodi-
Ties the same. If you can tell me that
tnen l can tell you the money ques-
tlon Will overshadow everything else
in the presidential campaign. But r.
you tell me that six months from now
wheat Will be 81 bushel and other
commodities likewise up-then / can
Tell you the presidential campaign will
De fought on prohibition or something
else, something other than the money
question:"
AT the time wrote that, in October.
wheat was, roughly, SO cents a bushel:.
soon a1ter 1t rose, rather sensationally,
70 ABOUT 70 cents, and thereafter re-
ceoed to about SIS cents. s
May Escape Money Question.
The rise of about 40 per cent In the
course OF some 10 weeks shows how
quickly and how greatly the price of
wneat can move. If during the next
leW weeks or months wheat should 90
on up toward 80 or 80 cents or Al a
pushel land other commodities in simf-,
lar proportlon) in that event we NAV
escape the money question in this Con-
gress ana IN this presidential campaign.
OtherW1se look out for it. 80
II the price of wheat land oth.r.
commodities) remains low. it is easv n
visualize what will happen. The thing
VII VIII start with a movement for the re-
ne1 OF debtors, especially farmer debtors.
some representatives of the farmer In.
politics, somebody in Congress or some
asplrant for the presidency like Gov:
murray OF Oklahoma, will point ont the
purden put upon farmers land other
deotors) by what has happened during"
the last two or three years. The cru
sauer IN oehaH OF the farmer will cite,
d typlcai example like this-which ex-
lists in literally hundreds of thousar,ss
OF cases. A farmer, two or three or Ave
years ago, borrowed $5 900 on a mort
gage on his farm; at that time the
price or wheat was, let us saw. Al so a
bushel-therefore he borrowed. in eject
1888 bushels of wheat. Today. how -.
ever, in order to pay his debt, he must
give to the holder of his mortgage TO-
oo0 bushels of wheat. Since wheat or
some other farm commodity Is the only
thing he has with which to paw his
mortgage, 1t IS literally a fact that his
debt is tripled.
This Is the angle from which the
money question is most likely to emerge
~ II does emerge. Some exponent of :
the farmer in Congress or In fhe nresi-
dental campaign will cite the cnndi-
tlon here described, only at much
greater length, and he will demand that u
money must be made easter to get, that >.
collars must be made cheaper-and
hence that the country must have nat
money of some sort soma 1000 a,,,iua