Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-04
PICKING 1892 CANDIDATES
ABSORBS PARTY LEADERS
Hoover Believed Certain to Head C.. o.
p, But Choice of Democrats
Held Doubtful.

This substantially completes the list
of important steps likely to be taken by
important political events or develop
mentS likely to appear during the po-
litical year 1881. That the list is mea-
ger shows upon its face.
For the really important political de-
velopmentS of 1891 we must turn to the
progress that will be made toward choos-
ing the presidential nominees Of the two
parties for 1932-the maneuverS that
will be made, quietly or with deliberate
sensation; mer whose fortunes viii be
promoted or retarded by developments
affecting them, accidental or otherwise:
changes in the trend of public opinion,
about prohibition or other issues, which
win advance the availability Of one man
or check that Of another.
Roosevelt In Front.
have said Gov. Roosevelt is the man
most frequently mentioned "in news
papers and other public circles" as the
Democratic candidate. But the mem
ton Of man In newspapers and other
public circles, at time 10 months ahead
Of the event Cor indeed at any time up
to "a hours before the EVENT., Is by no
means an accurate barometer of the
chance Of his being nominated. Case
after case in recent memory illustrates
that
The true rule, well understood by pol
iticians, Is the exact opposite. To be
too far out in 'front.'" as 1t Is expressed
by the politicians and President makers,
Is actually handicap, an omen less of
success than of failure. To cite recent
examples fresh in the readers memory:
In 1924 there were two men "out in
front" for the Democratic nomination.
They were William @. McAdoo and Al
rnd z
TO the relatively mconSpicuous John w.
Davis. In 1920, to cite another example,
the two men far tout in front" for the
Republican nomination were Gen. Leon
ard Wood and Gov. Frank Lowden-but
the nomination went to a man who, far
from being ''out In 'front.'" was in fact
very much to the rear, Senator Warren
G. Harding of Ohio
What Is here meant to be said Is that
just because Gov. Franklin Roosevelt e
out in front" at this time it does not
necessarily follow that his chance Of
being nominated Is In proportion to the
distance to which he is In the front.
Far from that, the truth is almost the
contrary. The fact that a man Is to the
front ID months ahead of the event
merely creates motive and an opportlI-
nlty 1or the advocates Of other men to
lay traps and set up obstacles in the
path OF the apparently favored one.
Making Of Nomination.
What is further meant to be said here
Is that presidential nominations are NOT
always made-not even often made-bv
public opinion, nor by the degree to
Wnlcn one candidate Is better known or
more favorably known than another.
PRESIDENTIAL nominations are made
ana most events ia history are deter
mined not by the vague thing called
public opinion, but by men-by men
VINO nave purposes and who intelli-
gently set about the achievement Of
their purposes. The coming Democratic
presidential nomination will not be de-
term1ned by public opinion. It will not
be determined by those presumed agen-
cleS Tor the expression of public opinion
which are called presidential pri-
maries."
AS to the primaries, they exist only
In some States, and even where thew
exist their outcome is determined, not
as the mathematical net result of the
voters preferences, but by the careful
maneuvers OF political leaders who
know exactly what they want and know
1uH well how to manipulate the pri-
mary elections to the serving of their
personal purposes.
All Of which is to say that the next
democratic presidential nominee will be
selected by a comparatively small num-
Der OF political leaders. The nomina-
ton will be the net resultant Of their
works and actions. To a certain extent
these men will confer with each other
In friendly way as to who is best to
nominate, who win bring to the party
the largest chance Of success. To =
certain extent they will maneuyer
against each other. The net resultant
OF all that they do viii be the presi-
dental candidate.
Smith StiH Factor.
One can be concrete, though one
would mislead If one attempted to be
zoo Speclhc. One may put it this way:
IN the Democratic nominating conven-
ton New York win have, roughly. 90
delegates, almost tenth of the whole.
Does any one doubt that the mass Of
these New York delegates will reflect
the VIII and respect the Judgment and
leadership of ex-Gov. Alfred E. Smith;
that they will be for Gov Roosevelt II.
ana only II, that seems wise to ex-Gov.
smith? This Is not to say that ex-
Gov. Smith will be an sutocrat. He
undoubtedly will take counsel with
others. 1t does mean, however, that
the delegates from New York will re.
hect, not what the newspapers say and
not what the man in the street gliesses.
but rather the Judgment of half dozen
men centering around New York States
Outstanding individual Democrat-Al-
fred e. Smith.
In order to be In no way misleading.
we should add that, of course, ex-Gov.
Smith and other leaders similarly
placed in other States will give q cer-
tain proportion of weight to the public
favor enjoyed by each Of the preSiden-
tia! aspirants or Possibilities. But the
weight given to public opinion, so called,
viii vary with the political leaders of
the various States, and In all cases win
be subordinated to other factors Of
Judgment
Probably the leading element in the
Judgment Of every leader and Ia the
conferences they hold with each other,
or the antagoniSnnS they have against
each other, win hang on the question
With what man will we have the best
chance to beat the Republicans?" 70
give major weight 10 that element Of
Judgment Is about IS near idealism as ,
politicians ordinarily come.
Other Examples Cited.
To cite other examples illustrating
the TACT that the next Democratic
Presidential nominee win be chosen by
men, as the net resultant of the tudg-
ments, prejudiceS and self-intereStS Of
comparatively few political leaders
does any one doubt that Senator pat
Harrison will have much weight ia
naming and determining the action OF
the roughly 10 delegates from Missis-
sippi? That Senator David I. walsh
will have similar weight as to Massa-
chuSetts? That ex-Gov. land him-
self former Presidential candidate)
James M. Cox, will have similar weight
as to the roughly 48 Ohio delegatesY
That Senator Joseph T. Robinson win
have similar weight as to the Arkansas
delegates? That Senator Claude Swan
son with nerhans aY-rznu RrrrsdN