The border vidette., 1931-08-15
AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK HAS
BRIGHT OUTLOOK


ly of the products the farmers
produce. drops most rapidly.
The agricultural income of the
United States has decreased sc
per cent ia two years. There
have also been great reductions
in the retail price of commodities
and in wages throughout the
Uoited States, but as rule these
reductions are not as great as
the reduction 10 the price Of
farm products. These facts,
states Dr.. Geo. w. Barr. Econo.
mist with the University of Ari
zona Agricultural Extention Ser
vice, encourages Us to look for
some business recovery in the
remaining months of 1881.
Three important signs point in
that direction, continues DR..
Barr. In the first place, when
we compare the business volume
during this depression with the
volume during past depressions
since the Civi! War, we tind that
in every case an upward move
ment has begun within two years
of the beginning of the depres
sion. II history is repeating
itself, we expect an increase in
business in the next few months.
In the second ploce, the abun.
dant quantity of supplies on
hand 10 October. 1929, have, in
many cases, been used up. For
this reason. business recovery
has begun in respect to produc
ton of necessities. This is
noticeable in the shoe industry.
in the clothing industry, and in
the manufacture of tires.
10 the third place. there are
indications of a recovery in the
earnings shown by many CON
panies during the second
quarter. Ia many instances,
the. earnings have been much
greater than during the preced
ing quarter. which is in marked
contrast with the almost univer
sal decrease in earnings each
quarter since the fall of 1921.
1t does not follow, however,
that business revival will be &C
companied by a rise 10 prices.
In fact. if we argue~by analogy,
comparing the present time with
the period following the War of
1912 and the War of 1861. we
may expect slight lowering OF
prices during the next ten years.
The machinery in the United
States. and in general through.
out the world. is all set for q
continuance of over-production.
This will impede an immediate
recovery of prices. II is to be
expected that q define duriog the
next ten years. il such occurs,
will not be without Interruptions.
Any extension of credit through
out the world or within the
United States would tend to raise
prices.
A down movement of wages
will follow during the next few
years in the event that the re
suits of this depression are
similar to those of the depres
sions following the periods of
previous wars. This downward
movement of wages, however,
will, on the one hand, be limited
to by restricted immigration,
which was not the case following
the Civil War, and on the other
hand will be accelerated by ma
chination.
With the recovery of business
there will come increased de-
mand for such agricultural com
modities as wheat and cotton.
It is to be anticipated that the
the response of wheat will be
slow due to the high tariff bar
riers imposed by European couu
tries. Then, too. should wheat
prices rise temporarily, the many
large areas throughout the
world, especially in Argentina,
Canada and Russia, are in a po
sition to extend their production.
The condition in the case of cot
ton is somewhat different. Cot
ton may be expected to make a
rather rapid response to re
covery of business, since the
world areas for the production
of cotton are somewhat limited
and since the production Of cot
ton will doubtless be greatly cur
tailed in the event of the con
tinuation of the present low
price.