Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-09-05
FULL SEASONAL
GAINS FORECAST
FaH Upturn in Business
Should Be Normal, Econ
omists Assert.
BY EDWARD C. STONE.

One OF the most cheerlul business
predictions made during the present
week comes from Boston.
The Fall upturn in business will
roach at least normal proportions, says
the United Business Service. Stocks
of goods in distributors hands are at
minimum levels, and industrial produc-
ton Is down to, or below current
consumption.
There is every reason to believe that
o considerable number Of deals and
enterprises Of one kind or another are
pending. awaiting a more suspicious
moment for their execution. a normal
degree of Fall improvement will be the
signal for action on many Of these.
this forecast says:
Local bankers today agreed quite
generally with this prediction, at least
30 far as Washington is concerned.
Things always improve in the Fall, fol-
lowing the hot Summer months, even
In times Of depression. The big Gov
eminent pay roll and lower prices for
90 many different kinds of goods will
make this possible and probable again
this year, bankers said.
Forecasts here differ a good deal
regarding the outlook for stocks. 1t
% quite generally agreed, however, that
sometime during the next SIX months
there will be an advance in the STOCK
market, the extent OF the gain de-
pending on what business does. SINH
lar market predictions have been made
before, but not when general market
averages were as low as they are now.
Guaranty Trusts Views.
In discussing favorable signs in do
mestic markets, the Guaranty Trust Co.
singles out the activity reported in re-
tail trade. While sales, measured III
dollar volume. the bank says. are
somewhat smaller than year ago, the
decrease appears to be considerably less
than would be expected as result OF
the decline In prices. This comparison
indicates that the physical volume of
business has increased and strengthens
the view that consumers supplies have
been depleted to a point where more
liberal buying is necessary, despite the
conta gious-and, to certain extent,
unreasonable-habits OF extreme econ
omy that have been adopted since the
advent of depression.
This opinion is further confirmed by
the continued recovery reported IN GER
tain industries turning out consumers
goods. The textile industries and the
boot and shoe industry are consplcu-
Gus examples of this improvement.
In so far as this interpretation OF
recent tendencies is correct, 1t is reas-
enable to conclude that industries sup
plying everyday consumers needs VIII
probably enjoy a higher level OF de
mand and that this Improvement VIII
gradually work its way back into the
earlier stages of the industrial process.
The economic readjustments IN
prices, wages. taxes, production ana
consumption have obviously not been
completed, or even reached point OF
sterilization: and yet they present
situation where. If conditions in Europe
improve, recovery may begin ana con-
structive factors prevail. Some seas
onal recovery. at least may be antici-
pated. the bank asserts.
Workers Earn S5.134.000.0o
The first complete study of employ
nnent and wages in the retail industry.
for the entire United States. according
to statistics made available by the
Census Bureau, reveals that more than
3,769, 900 men and women, represent
ing over per cent Of the country's
entire population, were employed full
time during the calendar year 1929 in
the retail stores Of the Nation, and g.
o18,642 or about one person out Of
every eight gainfully employed In this
country was engaged directly In retail
stores.
The number Of part-time employees is
estimated at 1884, This study Of the
great mass of data secured by the Bu-
reau of the Census in the first nation
wide census of distribution also shows
that the total amount paid out duSing
the same period In salaries and wages
o. R,.II
exclusive Of the compensation Of pro-
prietors or firm members, aggregated
IS. 1874, 00o, 900.
The study Is based on information
obtained in eight representative States
and the District of Columbia being a
summary Of 100000 reports.
Buck to Attend Convention.
John N. Buck. Washington life fnsur-
ance man. has earned a trip to the an
nuAl convention Of the Atlantic Life In
s,Irance Co. OF Richmond. Va.
The meeting will be held in Toronto
Canada, from September to IL and
will be attended by leading producers
and officers of the company, those in
attendance having earned the right to
do 50 by their volume of sales during
the past IL months.
Angus o. Swink, president of the
company; william H. Harrison, vice
president and superintendent of agen-
cfes, and DR.. Frank p. RICHTER, medical
director. will speak on various matters
related to the development Of the COM
pany. There will be discussions Of
sales ideas and the methods used by
the most successful underwriters in
aerving the public.
Mr. Buck has represented Atlantic
Life In Washington for six years. COM
fva1 1MYA he
Ia Richmond.
When men and women in fancy dress
attended a service at the Swanscombe,
England, Church recently, one man ap-
Observation-Disclosures