Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-11
BY FRANK H. sIMONDS.


first posed by the spectacular
IL Fascist triumph of September
has been repeated with renewed
anxiety in the face of the double phe.
nomenon of steadily growing Fascist
success In local elections and ever-in-
creasing strain due to the economic
! crisis.
So severe is the double crisis, eco
pomic and political that even the
Best informed Germans within and out
side Of ofhcial circles hesitate to make
Any too confident forecast. For five
months, at the very least the situa-
eion must be critical. During these
ave months it is not possible TO ex-
clude the possibility Of grave and even
dangerous events.
Yet, at the very outset of this article,
It may be said with all emphasis that
the one point on which there is general
agreement is that there is little chance
of any form of revolution, of a violent
seizure of power by a dictator, Com
munist or Fascist, leading to civil war
or domestic upheaval.
System Held Broken Down.
To understand what may happen it
Is essential to perceive the actual situa-
ton. Parliamentary and thus demo-
cratic government, in the ordinary sense
Of the word, has broken down. The
strife between the innumerable political
parties over domestic issues, the truly
colossal extent of the economic crisis,
the apprehension aroused among re-
publican parties by the rise of the Hit
Ter party, all these things have COM
bined to determine a resort to form
of dictatorship which preserves the
> spirit of democratic ideas, but not less
does daily violence to the forms.
T0ddU GERMANY Is governed nv what
might be compared to junta Of men,
relatively new in political authority,
who are acting outside of parliamentary
lines as a Committee of Public Safety.
These men, who constitute the Bruen-
ing cabinet, assured of the complete
support of the President, Marshal Hind
enberg, are formulating proposed laws,
obtaining the Presidents signature for
these, thus Transforming them into de-
cree laws, and then daring the Reich
stag to abrogate them. And so far
the Reichstag has not found the cour-
age TO take up the challenge.
Legislation by ordinary methods is
impossible. To obtain Reichstag APP
proval for measures Immediately nee
essary to save national credit, to miti-
gate the incredible misery Of economic
depression-in fact, to keep government
gotng-would consume months, when 1t
function, hence this dictatorship.
But all this emergency and decree
legislation Is instantly challenged by
the parties of disorder, by the Fascists,
the Nationalist at the right and the
Communists at the left who, divided
on many issues, are united in the COM
mon desire to overthrow the Republic
and replace it by a dictatorship on
the model either of MuSSolini'S, or of
Etn4fa1sg r1ano4 he rF
elements the Bruening cabinet must
rely upon the support Of the Roman
Catholics, Of organized labor and of big
buSiness-that Is, the Center, Social
Democratic and Peoples party REIN
forced by the sadly dimished Liberals
Of the States party. And since this
combination does not and cannot give
the cabinet sure majority, it remains
always in danger.
Government Has Advantages.
Nevertheless, the government has GER
tain advantages. It has office, the sup
port Of the President, the possession
Of the police. This police force Is
emcient, numerous, wholly devoted to
the republican regime, which has train
ed 1t during 10 years. 1t is armed,
shows no hesitation in the use of the
club and at the present moment by
its omnipresence gives Berlin the i'm
preston of a city under martial law.
What, then, is the danger for danger
there obviously is? It arises out of
this double fact: The ever-growing vigor
OF the attack coming from Fascism and
the equally growing pressure of an eco
nomic depression which will, so the
government estimates, lead to an un-
employment figure Of 100000 by Feb
ruary !, q figure comparable to 14,000,-
900 In the United States
On the one hand, then, you have the
swelling army Of Fascism, Nationalist
and Communists pressing to the attack,
on the other the daily increasing army
Of unemployed, the expansion of suffer-
ing, the multiplication of circumstances
for which, unjuStly but inevitably, the
government in power Is held RESPONSE
bic.
Thus the real issue Is whether the
Bruening cabinet can hold the fort
during the next i've months and above
al whether it can meet the assured
February crisis with the brilliant sues
cess which marked It's struggle first In
October and now quite recently in De-
cember.
If, under the double impact of politi-
cal and economic pressure. the Bruen-
ing cabinet Is beaten, this will not mean
instant or inevitable chaos. What will
happen viii be that Fascists and Ma
tionalists will enter the cabinet, re-
placing organized labor as its main sup
port. Labor itself is not actually in the
present cabinet, but is its chief defender,
measured by votes. There viii be a cab
met dominated by super Nationalist
But since these super-Nationalists of the
Hitler order have adopted program
Of economic absurdities and interna-
tional challenges, the result will be a
grave shock TO German credit abroad at
the precise moment when the economic
conditions demand foreign aid.
Lack Majority In Union.
Even united, Fascists and Nationalist
VIII not have a majority They will be
able TO do nothing actually dangerous,
since the Roman Catholic and Labor
parties can check them, and even the
Communists would be lined up against
them. At moment when the economic
and financial condition Of Germany is
at the height of the crisis induced by
seasonal condition. government would
be paralyzed. And no other conceivable
solution can be foreseen, save a new
general election.
But In such an election, have been
assured by representatives of every
party, Fascism would double its present
membership, Communism would gain
materialiy ana every other party would
lose, perhaps more disastrously than last
September. And recalling the effect in
ternationally of the far less considerable
Fascist and Communist victories upon
Germany's international situation,
financially and politically, the meaning
Of such a new event can be appre-
eiated.
That, then, is the double possibility
the destruction of both foreign and
domestic confidence; now what as to
the probability? On the whole one can
saw niiita safely that the ma thrifty Of