The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1931-12-19
Race Suicide Talk Again

The race suicide DOGGY bobs up with Vgor from
time to time In the old days the friends Of the
cannon-fodder notion grew nervous for fear the
ranks of recruits for the battlefield might be thnned
out Roosevelt, Mussoni and the Bolsheviks have
revived this doctrine in our generation Ecclesiastics
have been alarmed concerning the reduction in the
number of souls to be reclaimed and have fercely
fought birth control.
The latest converts to the fallingpopulaton scare
have been certain nti-brth-control and ant-immi-
gration-restricton biologists and statistcianS An
able article from this school by Louis Dublin StatS
tican of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company
appears in the Forum.
Dr. Dublin,s facts are not unknown to close STU
dents of the population problem but they give clear
summary of probable population changes in the
United States
The annual brth-rate is falling off steadily. In
the days before 1880, it than IS per 1000
of the population BY 1915 had fallen to 25 while
by 1880 it had dropped to 10. This represents de-
cline of Is per cent in fifteen years Population in
crease is even lower in the great cities; in New York
and Chicago the birthrate being about II per 1000
DR. Dublin holds that the fall in our birth rate will
continue in even more spectacular fashion. Due to
immigration of young people from Europe and the
high birth rates of the earlier generation, we now
have an unusually large proportion of the population
in the provocative age-clasS
This abnormal situation will pass soon If we
make allowance for this in our statistical computa-
TONS the true rate of natural population increase
in 1928 was only IT. per 1000 against the apparent
rate of 79 per 1000.
Dr. Dublin believes that, with even the most OPP
timistic predictions we shall have stationary popu-
lation with birth rate of IA per 1000, by 1870 The
maximum population of the United States should
be about 154OOOO00 and be reached about 1888. IL
On0O o1drQ in
at about that figure
A more pessimistic but equally supportable estl-
mate would put the population OF the United states
in 21oO at 75o0OO0O.
In any event, population increases. of today Will
fall markedly With this will come significant
changes in the age-classes The percentage OF young
people will drop In $780, 525 per cent of the popu-
ation were under 20 years of age; in 1920, 4O7 per
cent but by 1850 they will constitute only % per
cent.
The group over SO will increase even more notably.
In 1850 only per cent was over So in 1920, Is per
cent? but by 1850 this group will constitute 80 per
cent.
Dr. Dublin predicts some rather gloomy conse-
uuences OF this change which is due, he believes al
most to birth control practices More old people
will make us more conservative and traditional They
will not have the zest for large and diversified pur-
chases which characterizes the young.
They may not keep the wheels of industry hum
ming or maintain the present swirl of fashion
changes We may be brought under the heel OF
countries with large population ncreases-such as
Russia China and Japan.
DIR. Dublins facts are valuable and illuminating,
but his gloom may not be justified. Youth does not
invariably mean liberalism nor age conservatism.
witness the young Black Shirts" in Italy, and the
liberalism of Gladstone Roosevelt wilson, Hughes
Holmes and Brandeis as they grew older,
We may hope that before 1000 A D. liberalism will
come to be based on. knowledge and information,
rather than physiology or blind human chemistry.
Older people may mean a more stable and settled
social order but age may bring mellow wisdom and
tolerance quite much as petulant repression and
adamant reactionism. AS far as the danger OF a
foreign yoke is concerned either We shall have
secured world peace by 1000 A. D. or there will be
no human race to worry about