Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-03-15
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

1 hOOSSNelG Oh new 1OIk has 10 IL. GOV.
| Roosevelts name-aS of today--leads
all the rest. He is far out in front. AS
of today. Roosevelt should easily have,
as his initial strength in the conven-
ton, the immense delegation from New
York State, almost tenth of the whole.
Whomever New York supports, so will
the New York group of States" sup
port. BY the New York group of
States" is meant Tin addition to New
YORK; Connecticut, Massachusetts,
2hode Island, New Jersey. Within this
same classification, the New York
group OF States" should be included,
perhaps, Vermont and New Hampshire
with part of Maine and more than half
of Pennsylvania.
This territory, in Democratic National
Conventions, commonly acts as a unit.
rangement, but by a natural homoge-
neousness. This territory, within the
Democratic party. has the same ways
Of looking at things. The parts of it
understand each other. 1t has the
same point of view about prohibition; it
has the same economic interests and
therefore, the same point of view about
other issues. AS of today-but very
much subject to change-this territory
Democratic National Convention by
supporting Gov. Roosevelt. This solid
block of support would amount to close
to third of the whole convention.
First Ballot Assurance.
The New York group of States" with
their almost third of the delegates,
should comprise Gov Roosevelt's ini-
tial support. This territory would prob
ably vote for him in the first ballot
| thereafter, on early ballots, there
should come to Gov. Roosevelt the sup
port of other States or portions of
States in which the prevailing Demo-
cratic point Of view is kin to that of
New York-the wet portion OF Illinois,
the wet portion of Michigan. of Mis-
souri,, of Ohio. perhaps all of Wisconsin,
the, wet portions OF delegations from
such States as Washington, perhaps all
of wet Maryland-after and if Mary
land has finished standing by its IA
Yorite son, Gov. Albert Richie
Some OF these States will have as
Maryland will, favorite sons. Some of
these favorite sons will be formidable
and in certain eventualities may have
a real chance to get the nomination.
But, assuming that Gov. Roosevelt of
New York will show high strength on
the frSt ballot, and assuming that the
tide runs his way in the subsequent
ballots, all the States or portions of
states named above should gradually
1all In behind the New York Governor
Practically the entire wet portion of
the party would be likely to be lined
up, with Gov. Roosevelt before many
ballots had been concluded.
All this is as of today. It-this whole
picture and the political fate of Gov.
Roosevelt-iS very much subject to
change.
The mere fact that Gov. Roosevelt
at time Is months in advance of the
convention is so far out in front is itself
an impeachment and a peril. To be so
conspicuous in the race at so early a
Time invites the fate of the shining
marx. ACTIONS taken by candidate
| SO lar IN front, statements by him. in
cldents that happen around him. take
on significance, often Instantaneous.
not attending men more obscure.
Peril in TOO Early" Hope.
| An interesting book could be written
about the men in American history who
suffered tragedies Of hope defeated
largely through having arrived too near
the goal at too early stage in the
race.
In addition to this general peril to
Coy. Roosevelt there are in his case
at least two specific dangers. The dan
| gers are at this time dangers only. They
can readily take the form of concrete.
aggressive opposition Either of them
can become very formidable
To survey the remainder of the Dem
! ocratic presidential field, a good way to
begin is to consider these possible men
! aces to the New York Governor.
The most obvious menace to the New
| YORK GoVernor-so obvious as really not
to be terribly formidable-is the Demo-
cratic drys in the South and elsewhere.
| The dry South wants a dry candidate
AND Gov. Roosevelt, of course, is
| classified as wet The dry South added
to sporadic groups of drys elsewhere
| could, If all the dry delegates should
| stand continuously solid throughout the
convention, prevent Gov. Roosevelts
nomination. In Democratic conventions
| 1t takes two-thirds to nominate (con-
trary to the Republican practice, which
requires only majority. Consequent
! ly one-third OF a convention can, so to
! speak, veto a nomination.
The drys will have fully a third of
next years Democratic National Con-
| ventlon and may have materially more.
But to be effective they must stand
together. To stand together they must
have rallying point. The rallying
point must be a man. In short, the
| dryS must have candidate of their
own - one outstanding candidate of
their own. If the dry delegates should
| be divided among several dry candi-
dates it would be the easiest trick in
the world for the experienced wet poll
ticlanS to pick the dry delegates off,
group by group
1t seems likely the drys will have
a candidate, and it seems possible this
candidate may fulfil the necessary con-
ditlon OF being single outstanding
candidate. The man about whom APP
parently the drys viii have their OPP
portunity to stand is Senator Joseph
| t. Robinson of Arkansas. Mathemat-
ically and every way it is possible to
visualize the drys standing firm behind
| Senator Robinson and thereby prevent
ing the nomination of Gov. Roosevelt
Of New York.
Not Implacably Hostile.
But the fact is the drys are not i'm
| placably hostile to Gov. Roosevelt. They
think of him as being wet, but not
terribly wet. They have heard that
the New York Governor. while wet DO
heard that his wife, Mrs. Franklin
Roosevelt, is really as earnest for mini
MIXING the liquor traffic as the drys
themselves, differing from them only
about the means through which TO
/ bring about minimum consumption of
liquor. Gov. Roosevelt has agreeable
associations with the South. He spends
some of each year in Georgia. He be-
gan the national part of his political
life in association with a Southerner
as Assistant Secretary of the Navy
when Josephus Daniels of North Caro-
lima was Secretary in the presidency of
Woodrow Wilson
Furthermore, the drys are so much
in terror of the nomination of some
one who would be to them more dis
tasteful than Gov. Roosevelt that their
opposition to the New York Governor