Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-11-15
PARIS AND GENEVA SURE
ARMS FARLEY WILL FAIL
French View, Based on Recent Elections,
Is Bruening Will Fall When
Conference Is Opened.

resS was made toward a security pact.
In sum, the impression l draw from my
informant is that the uncompromising
position taken by France in her state
ment on ornaments several months ago
not only remains unmodified but now
is not likely to be modified
Paris then. believes the arms con-
ference must fail. Precisely The same
view is reported to me from Geneva.
but the emphasis is laid there upon the
danger to the League of such failure.
Germany is coming to the conference
bound TO demand equality in arma-
ments with France and threatening in
advance to withdraw from Geneva alto
gether if this demand is denied. If
Germany leaves the League the conse-
quences may be serious. for it is almost
certain that Germany will not go alone.
Sentiment FavOrs Delay
There is a very we'll defined opinion
in Geneva that. alike for the sake of
the League and in the interests of gen.
eral peace the armament conference
should oe postponed The coming VIM
ter is conceded on all hands to be a
period of great economic strain and
political stress. The prospect of a
tense international conference marked
by bitter struggle between France and
her allies and Germany and Italy is
profoundly disturbing 10 League ad-
herentS.
The past IA months beginning with
the Hitler sweep in September. 1880.
and continuing through the tremen-
dous crisis of the Austro-German
tariff union, has produced a feeling
of nervousness and apprehension IN
Paris, Warsaw and Prague. Not one
of these chancelleries. all representing
heavily armed states, is in any mood
for armament reduction Moreover, all
see in the German and Italian support
OF the Hoover proposals the deliberate
purpose to reduce the force which nov
sustains the treaty of Versailles and
which gives France her present pre-
dominant position.
The situation of the new British gov
eminent remains somewhat obscure
Macdonald will certainly press as
eagerly as ever for a conference. but
! the Tories. who constitute the mass of
his ma jority support. are far less
eager. And the problem OF recovering
| British loans 10 the Reich and restor-
ing British economic and financial sta
! bility is bound to be complicated if the
disarmament conference precipitates
another such struggle as marked the
| Genoa conference OF 1922.
| Were it not for the insistence of
| Washington it is clear that the Dis
/
| poned But no European government
desires openly to oppose an American
administration which already has adj
mitted the connection between debts
and reparations and teven though mis-
| takenly) is believed to be secretly
favorable to cancellation of allied debts
Security Paramount.
| While this seems to make the con-
| ference inevitable it does not in the
least promise achievement Although
the armed states in Europe would like
to see debt cancellation. the question
of security Is far more vital 1t Is
American and British money, not
| French, which is locked up in frozen
credits and securities investments In
Germany. On the other hand it is
France alone who is the majority stock
holder in reparations Nothing can be
done to reduce reparations without
French assent: and reduction of repa-
rations must be the first step in re-
| storing German finances.
Any hope of progress at Geneva must
be predicated upon two American con-
tributions-a security pact to satisfy
France on the political side and debt
cancellation to balance any repara-
tons reduction. If Mr.. Hoover cannot
persuade Congress to ratify security
pact and cancel the war debts the fail
ure of the Geneva Conference is already
assured.
AS q consequence both at Paris and
at Geneva, discussion has already
passed beyond the question of positive
achievement and now is concentrated
upon ways and means to prevent the
conference from becoming the same
fatal disaster as the Genoa meeting
which led directly to the Ruhr.