Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-11-13
ECONOMISTS SEE
, TURN FOR BETTER
Consensus OF Observers Is
That Business Depres-
sion Has Ended.
Special Dispatch TO The star.

Special Dispatch TO The star.
NEW YORK. November l9.-The busi-
ness depression Is over and the United
States has already started upon the
road back to prosperity. although prog
ress along this path has not continued
long enough as yet to make the move
.Omert convincing. This, according to
Gage p. Wright, New York business
counselor and head Of the Business Eco
homie Digest, Is the consensus OF eco
nomic opinion and is based upon def
mite evidence which. Mr.. Wright believes,
justifies the conclusion, and indeed indi-
Gates to some observers that the return
TO good times may even be rapid.
1T must be remembered" said Mr..
Wright yesterday, that the turning
point of a long-continued business de-
,.~~cline is not a sharply accentuated re-
passage through the twilight zone in
Summer time. At one moment 1t Is
still light, presently it is dark. The
moment of transition cannot be noted.
al, Sees Reversal of Trend.
- ''In the same way, no one can see q
business trend reverse itself, though, II
he is sufficiently acute in observation,
,5he may sense the change after 1t has
occurred. In the present instance 1
share the opinion that the turn has
been made because discover that con-
ditions which affect the business cycle
have-cne might say surreptitiously-
= settled into a relationship which long
observation has taught me must precede
"a reversal of the business cycle. In
other words, the very conditions which
IT and many other students OF business
economies were forecasting as likely to
occur presently as precedent to busi-
- ness revival have suddenly come into
existence.
=, 1Ar,ono theso NAV he mentioned the
., altered sentiment Of our people. The
slowing down in the rate of increase Of
currency circulation Is regarded by
economists as q definite sign that the
growth of boarding has been checked:
aAAnd boarding, arising from mistrust OF
-our banks and our security markets. mas
withdrawn approximately 81 100000 600
> from circulation here in the United
States Even a layman can imagine the
peffect upon business which would follow
a complete resumption of confidence
a and the resultant production and ex-
expenditure of a sum as vas. as this. AT
single stroke it would occasion a bust
ness boom
This return of confidence is prob
ably due, in large measure. to the for
NATION of the National Credit Corpora
ition and President Hoover's plan for re-
leasing 81 500, 100000 now frozen in
real estate mortgages, largely on small
homes. Great Br1ta1nS recent electlon
Undoubtedly played its part, too, for
Ssthere was real fear in the United States
that England might be definitely turned
to Communism.
"Other factors affecting the general
= situation include the sterilization OF
commodity prices, which appears to
shave been accomplished, with the index
tending upward after months OF decline;
the reduction, in many instances, OF re-
tail prices to what may be termed ire
sistible levels-that is, levels at which
purchaser cannot refrain from buying
because of the bargains offered; the
slowing down of the assault upon our
gold holdings, which leaves us confident,
as many were by no means before, that
1--WE can remain upon gold basis. In
-dustry has adjusted costs to selling
levels and labor has accepted wage re-
auctions in q spirit which, to say the
least, was unexpected.
re HAS Turned Corner"
"Only the unfortunate position Of our
al farmers presented an obstacle to the
return of good times, and now events
have conSpired, among them the with
!, drawal from market of millions of BUSH
els Of Russian wheat, to advance the
price Of that commodity in the United
> States.
"The United States has turned the
> corner Our progress toward prosperity
will depend upon events OF the next
j few months. It may be slow, but it can
"be fast"