Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-05-10

ton some interesting things
could be said, but hardly any important
ones. In any event, that is not the
purpose Of the present article. The
question is, just how valuable is the
Republican nomination? Granting that
Mr.. Hoover will be renominated, will
the Republicans win the election? That
is the real question.
| The answer depends chiehy-almoSt
wholly-on how long this business de-
/ preston lasts. II this depression should
/ be still under way, in part or in whole,
/ on November 8. 1882, the depression will
be the chief issue.
/ That is not the right way to phrase
| 1t. though it usually is phrased that
way. THE issue will be prosperity"
say Republican leaders and Democratic
leaders alike. Prosperity is not an
issue. On the contrary. prosperity Is
the one thing that is not an issue, the
one thing that everybody agrees Is
wanting. What is meant Is that II
! the present lack of prosperity continues
until late next year, and If it is to the
front OF mems troubled minds as much
on election day as it is now, in that
event men will vote with business con-
ditionS in their minds-and a good
many Of them will vote against the Re-
publicans. In that sense prosperity or
the depression, whichever way you
choose to put it, will be the condition
determining the election.
Length Of Slump Is Question.
So the question becomes. how long
is this depression going to last? Shall
we have prosperity by November, 1882?
Not necessarily complete prosperity as
we had it in 1928; it isn't indispensable
that we get that far back in order to
get depression out Of the voters minds.
But shall we have by November, 1882,
a pleasant sense of rising sap in the
business tree? Will those curves and
graphs and diagrams about production
and prices and wages and profits which
we see in all the newspapers, and which
have been turning grimly downward
for some 20 months-will they by No
venber, 1882, be rising gently upward
toward the sun of prosperity? And so
We are back to the fundamental ques-
ton affecting the 1892 election-how
| long will this depression last?
Before answering that there Is one
other point. If We are back on our
way toward prosperity by November 8.
1882, then business conditions will not
be in the voters minds as they go to
the polls. If business conditions are
not in their minds, something else will
be. The something else" would be
How long will this depression last?
AS to that, there is in the air about us
Though the public generally is not yet
aware OF it, condition at once SO novel
and so widespread and coming from
such elevated sources as to constitute
an important phenomenon. / refer to
predictions assertions and emanations
from exalted sources which say, in
effect. that this Is not merely business
CinnTeS Cinn-hfIf ha0innIn0 q
revolution.
Let us leave that for moment and
consider this depression as most plain
thinking folks do consider it, as a de-
preston in the ordinary sense. similar
in its conditions of cause and recovery,
though greater in degree, than the
depressions of 1921 or 1907. or the more
comparable ones of 1893 and 1873.
Those who look at the depression in
that way-most of them. at least-say
it is already over. in the sense that
the worst is past and that recovery is
underway. All the more important adj
viSory services to banks and investors
say that. BabSon's, Brookmire and
others have for some weeks advised the
purchase Of securities (Which are an
index, barometer of future business
conditionS). Most of the men expert
enced and shrewd in finance and eco
Monies say that prices of securities
have registered or are just now regis
tering the lowest levels of the depreS-
sion and that from now on the move
ment will be upward One OF the wisest
men of this class Is Thomas Woodlock.
a scholar in the world of business and
finance. He has been stock broker,
an editor of the Wall Street Journal.
an expert in railroads, member of the
Federal Interstate Commerce Commits
sion, and in all his roles he has been
primarily a scholar Primarily his
mental operations have been those Of
an exact mind intent upon facts and
truth Mr.. Woodlock wrote as early as
January "a this year an article in the
Wall Street Journal headed Now Is
the Time" meaning that now is the
time to buy securities. "All factors in
dicate," he said, present is opportune
for investing in securities"
Believe Bottom Reached.
1t Is not necessary to summarize the
mass of Judgment to the same effect.
There are exceptions, striking and able
ones. What is meant to say here, how
ever, Is that nearly all persons who look
upon this as business depression OF
the familiar type think the bottom of
1t has been reached. They differ to
some extent about how wide the bottom
is. Many think we have concluded
passing the bottom, some think We will
be on the bottom some time yet. But
all the commentators of this type think
the depression is merely an exception
ally deep and wide bottomed example
OF the familiar type of business
depression.
What is novel just now, what Is so
sensational as to be spectacular-and
what may be not important at all, or
else extremely important-is the exist
ence of a number of commentators who
say that this Is not a depression in the
ordinary sense at all, but the beginning
Of revolution: a peaceful revolution.
but yet profoundly fundamental and
disturbing one-a revolution right here
in America.
The phrase 7 have used, "the begin
ming Of a revolution" is mine, not
theirs-though / think few of these
commentators would object to the
phrase, and many of them actually use
those words or their equivalent. In
any event, the thing they predict-not |
predict. but confidently talk about as
here's revolution. AS Senator La
Toilette puts 1t, 1.-THE philosophy of |
The ideas of an agricultural
society have been definitely outmoded |
and new set-up Of society Is nee !
essary."
Faculties Full Of Idea.
To any one who understands the |
classical Technology of social organiza-
ton, what Senator La Folletta describes .
Is a revolution. no less. In quoting |
Senator La Toilette before some others |
1 may have impaired my own argu-
ment, because many who think of the /
young Wisconsin Senator as a radical |
in politics will back away from taking
him as SERIOUSLY as thew might take
some others who say the same thing
But San u tor a Enllnffa l.rnnu,r aYacflu