Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-08-08
INSISTS RECOVERY
MUST START HERE
Knappen Says Other Nations
Need Orders From u. S.
to Aid Advance.

Outside Of consumers goods there
is not much in the domestic field to
indicate an encouraging degree of sea-
sonal expansion in the Fall, but Theo-
dore M. Knappen Of Washington, writ
ing in the Magazine Of Wall Street
cautions that it is always well to rec
ognize the possibility Of the unexpected.
while it is probable that we are now
in the feeble beginning Of the expan-
sion phase of the present cycle. there
is nothing ia its visible structure TO
indicate anything but slow recovery for
the next six months. It is impossible
to find any but the normal factors of
recovery. There is no promise Of ex-
petition from anything inherent in the
nature of the present depression or in
the more or less artificial measures of
Fastening recovery that are being APP
piled or proposed We have been a
long time in reaching the bottom and
likely we shall be long time climbing
out of it, always keeping in mind the
fact that the unexpected has way Of
happening. The conjunction of the
accumulation OF unsatisfied wants, de-
clining stocks, growing restiveness Of
EaD1Ial ana ElflIEDIClkCuIas bltE JGulDLd~
ton of low price levels, the pressure of
abundant funds and an unimpaired
business and financial structure may
suddenly accelerate the normal progress
of recovery.
According to all that we can see now
the people of the United States must
make this recovery without the roper
cussive help Of initial recovery in other
countries. There is no mountain Of
orders from other lands ready flor the
tip of loan) TO fall into our laps, as
in 1922 and 1923. The start Of better
times for them must wait for better
times in the United States. Not until
the improvement in the United States
is extended to the countries on which
we draw for raw materials viii the
world begin to pick up. When our
buying abroad begins to revive our cap
ital will again become interested in
foreign investments and enterprises
This economic relation was precisely
reversed during ante war depressions
Being then both a debtor nation and
in international relations overwhelm-
ingly a raw material country, we were
dependent upon foreign recovery. When
our capital again pours into foreign
countries their business activity all
ready helped by our purchases win re-
ceive fresh impetus.
Keeping in mind the utter bank
ruptcy Of economic prophecy for the
last several years and remembering that
there are possibilities of imitation that
may reverse the usual course and set
| lp production and distribution and then
consumption before the gradual accre-
ton of consumptive demand has run
| its normally low course, the prudent
1 forecast for this Fall is one of some
what less than normal seasonal expan-
/ sion, but with a steady underCurrent
Of enlarging cyclical revival. There will
not be enough momentum from the
seasonal betterment-ehiefly because Of
the distressing agricultural situation
to speed up the cyclical process. The
inevitabl. inference is that the begin
I ming Of 1882 will find US still below
normal but quite yisibiy on the up
grade and in sight OF the next summit
I or preferably, plateau.