Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-08-09
EUROPEAN EVENTS CLOUD
DEBTS AND ARMS OUTLOOK
French Demand for Political Guarantees
Indicates Doom of Conference on Dis
armament IL Held This Winter.

/ Anglo American Japanese agreement at
London.
What is most interesting in the Ger
man situation Is the question raised by
Bruening's dilemma. IT. as the French
calculate, German self-help fails to
solve the problem. will Bruening decide
to 60 to Paris or to resign and turn the
government over to the Nationalist
| and Hitlerites? And II he should do
the former, would that precipftate new
revolution? He has certain period of
| respite, because the Reichstag will not
meet until Autumn But this respite
is conditional upon his retention OF his
hold upon the Council of Elders which
has the power to compel recall OF
Parliament. And In this council his
margin of safety was cut nearly to half
in the week of the London Conference.
A vast deal depends upon the course
of big business 1t has been behind the
Hitlerites because it believed that it
could prosper better under a Fascist
than a democratic regime 1t wants to
get the Socialists out Of the government
and get rid of the burdens on industry
the social legislation of the Left has
imposed. If 1t is still OF the same mind
It will in the end bring Bruening down.
On the ether hand, recent events have
disclosed the French position as strong
er than Berlin had calculated.
Opinion in Berlin.
When I was in Berlin last Winter
there was the general conviction that
Great Britain and the United States
had invested such vast sums In Ger
many that they would be bound to de-
fend Germany against France. 1t was
this conviction that led Curtius to
launch his Anschluss program In March.
But IL Is clear in the light of more re-
cent events that Britain and the United
States, despite their viii and effort,
were unable to save Germany from a
financial crash or lend her the money
to recover from that crash.
As q consequence, it is far from inn
possible that we may yet see big BUSH
ness supporting Bruening In new dis
cussion with Paris. Then all would
depend upon the strength Of Nationalist
feeling. The country might bow to she
inevitable again, as 1t did after the
French had occupied the Ruhr and
Frustrated German industrial life, or
it might flame up in passionate re-
sentiment which would make acceptance
of french terms impossible My own
impression Is that the latter would
happen, but I have now been away
from Berlin for several months.
Germany, having undergone a
brusque attack and suffered a sharp
defeat, is now isolated and under
siege. BTuening and Curtius went to
Paris to get terms, which they rejected
They went to London to get help,
which was denied them. They are
now trying to carry on without help.
II they succeed, German position in
Europe will be stronger and French
weaker than at any moment since the
aFnaistice But the odds are heavily
The French press comment which
now reaches me Is far bitterer toward
the United states and Great Britain
than against Germany, because the
French believe that 1t is washington
and London which are preventing
German surrender. On the other
hand, mention OF Germany is more re-
served. because the French seem to
feel that this opponent has been put
out Of the running Oddly enough,
too, one OF the things which rankle In
the French mind, the most unpleasant
detail Of all save the Hoover proposal,
IS the German visit to Chequers The
French AFFECT to believe that even the
Hoover moratorium proposal was
planned in the CheQners meeting, and
on all sides there is the same sarcastic
note, They had better have come to
Paris
II Germany does surrender, however.
one Of the most important Of the
armistice terms will be the acceptance
Of the French view that the Disarma-
ment Conference should be postponed.
That now Is one OF the most important
considerations In the French policy
and one of the most considerable
grounds for French bitterness with
Washington and London. On the
other hand, submission on this point
might bring French agreement to as
sent to Preparations revision OF far
reaching character Anyhow. the
French goods are in the shop window
with the fixed price" tags on them.
as Is the custom OF French stores.
tcopyriRht 1891