The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1931-12-16
BLACK CLOUDS
GATHER ABOUT
ARMS FARLEY
Outlook Is DiScouraging as
Nations Prepare to Talk
Peace at Geneva.
WORLD FATE AT STAKE
Danger Spots Dot Globe to
Menace Efforts for Dis
armament.
BY WILLIAM PHILIP SIMMS
scripps- Howard Foreign Editor

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16.-Today
exactly seven weeks from the
scheduled opening of the vital &C.
neva arms parley-finds President
Hoover about to name the American
delegation, tentatively with Secre-
tary Stimson as its head
Probably no international confer
ence Of similar import ever faced so
black an outlook or had so forbid
ding background. 1t yet may be
postponed on this account. But
once under way, it will be the test
of whittier the world is bound.
From it, diplomats here and in
European capitals agree, the nations
will emerge headed toward renewed
confidence, disarmament and pros
perity, else back toward 1914, a new
ornaments race and eventually war.
Danger spots dot the world like
smallpox. Here are some Of the
most outstanding:
Orient Strife Torn
l. Possible war between China
and Japan, over Manchuria. Or be-
tween Russia and Japan. Or be-
tween Japan and Russia and China
together.
2. Possible dismemberment of
China with the great powers, omit
hing the United States, scrambling
for the pieces.
3. The growing possibility of a
new European balance of power
r,,itb IIroroa D0Io,7d C1acho- G10Ua-
kia, Rumania, Yugo-Slavia and Bel
GUM on one side against England,
Germany, Austria, Italy, and Hun
gary on the other.
4. A defaulting, bankrupt Ger
many about to turn Fascist, headed
by Hitler with program calcu-
lated either to plunge Germany into
civil war or into war with France.
France Proud of Power
S. A new France, mightier than at
any time since Napoleon rode his
white horse from Rome to Moscow
"a France which has superseded
Britain as cock of the walk in Eur
ope, militarily financially, econo-
mically, and in prestige-a France
which has no intention of disarm-
ing.
6. A slipping England-an Eng
land without an empire, without
market, without gold and without
much hope of a comeback unless,
perhaps, by means of hookup
with some European balance of
power.
7. Poland, at daggers drawn with
Germany on one side and afraid of
Russia on the other.
8. A ring of steel about Germany,
a ring formed by France and her
allies-Poland, Czecho Slovakia,
Rumania, Yugo-Slavia and Bel
GUM. There is Slight chance of
these countries laying down their
arms.
Russia Growing Threat
9. A Russia, suspicious of Europe
on the west and Japan on the east
"a Russia which now is creating
the biggest standing army in the
world, with an industrial and agri-
cultural organization behind it to
make it self suStaining in time of
war.
10. An Italy that insists upon
military and naval parity with
France and whose aspirations run
counter to French desires.
II. An India that is expected to
go berserk any time in an effort to
detach herself from British rule.
IL. An entire world, more than
half of which is in. or bordering on,
revolution or war, the rest being in
a state of nervous uncertainty over
what may happen.
Lack of Money Factor
On the other side of the ledger,
however, there is at least one pow
erful argument in favor of success
at Geneva. That is the lack of
money with which to support
powerful military establishments.
There is not single firSt-claSS
power on earth with balanced
budget. All are hopelessly in the
red now and for several years to
come. Proportionately reduced eX-
penditures on arms throughout the
world would help restore the Situa-
ton.
But the trouble there" a pessi-
miStic official here declared, lis that
most nations in the world today are
like pioneers used to be in our weS-
tern mining towns. When hard up
and money had to be raised some
how. they would rather pawn their