Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-01-04
AUTO TRADE. HOLDS
193OPOST-MORTEM
Statistical Report on Bust
ness Outlook Given by
ChrysIer Head.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star
DETROIT, January 2-The men who
do the figuring for big business in
America have held a post-mortem on
1880 as an automobile year A few
hours before 1881 was ushered in, they
met at Cleveland in an assembly of
the American Statistical Association.
There they listened to report by John
w. Scoville, head of the statistical di-
vision of the Chrysler Corporation, in
which the course of this slump and
other slumps were laid bare and dis
sected.
At the same time, the chances of
1881 comeback were weighed and found
promising After detailed analyses of
trends up to now and what we can ex-
pect in the future, Mr.. ScovilIe voiced
the belief that automobile manufactur-
ing today is in robust health. Tt is,
however, in that period of life which
might be called early manhood and is
suffering just now from nothing worse
than cold in the head.
Significant Conclusions.
Several of his conclusions are sig
niflcant:
/. The trend of automobile sales will
be upward In 1881 and production in
1881 viii be somewhat greater than
in 1880.
2. The year 1882 will show the largest
production of automobiles in the his
tory of the industry with the possible
exception of 1929
8. The automobile business will, in
the future, make greater contribution
to industrial activity than it ever has
done in the past.
4. BY 1910 the number of cars in use
will have reached approximately 80, $780,
600, and their maintenance will be
business OF itself, with volume ex-
ceeding more than one and one-quarter
billion dollars year.
In the course Of his talk Mr.. Sco-
vile showed that the automobile trade
is subject to up and down cycles.
1T is curious fact" he said, that,
there has been three-year cycle in the
industry, the years of low production
being 1918, 1921, 1924, 1927 and 1880.
I have never been able to discover an
adequate reason for the three-year
cycle, and it is possible that this cycle
is accidental and may not prevail in
the future
Then Mr.. Scoville showed by means
Of a chart that we are passing through
low point of automobile sales at the
present time.
Il believe" he went on, that auto
mobile sales will begin to rise in the
line will be reached about September,
1881.
while in 1880 automobile sales were
declining, starting the year at about
normal and declining to so per cent be-
low normal, believe the trend in 1881
will be reversed and that sales will
show an upward trend and close the
year above normal.
In my opinion, 1882 will show the
largest production ever recorded, with
the possible exception Of 1929"
Reseatch Productive.
Mr.. Scoville's research for the Chrys-
Ter organization has been produc-,
tive of data indicating that in the
largest cities of the United States au-
tomobile density is low as compared
with the rest of the country.
For example, in Bronx County and
Kings County, New York, there are
only 70 passenger cars in use per 1000
people. In Philadelphia, the automobile
density is only ITO and in Chicago it is
only 40.
These figures compare with a ma
tional density OF about 1875 passenger
cars per 1000 people.
On tie other hand, some very large
cities nave high automobile density.
Detroit has 214; Los Angeles, 329 and
Cleveland, 224 automobiles per 1000 of
population.
In the Northern States most of the
larger cities show a lower automobile
density than the surrounding country,
while IN the Southern States the auto
mobile density of the cities usually is
greater than that Of the surrounding
country.
Il believe" Mr.. Scoville added, chat
the number of automobiles per 1000,
which has steadily increased in this
country, will continue to increase in the
next decade and will rise from 1875 in
1880 to 223 cars per 1000 in 1870"
BY the time 1910 rolls around, if Mr..
ScoVille's forecast is borne out, there
will be 32,350.000 cars in use. Between
now and that time, it will require pro-
duction of more than 100000 We
hicles to reach that level.
This, he calculates, will mean manu-
| featuring volume in the next 10 years
that will exceed the entire volume from
the beginning Of the industry down to
the present.
(Copyright, $780, by North American News
paper Alliance,)
Or if the Engine Misses.
In the days of yore,' observes
contemporary, IF anybody missed a