Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1931-06-02
CROPS SCRUT|N|zED
AS RECOVERY INDEX
Good Harvests Could Add
Ten Billions in Wealth
to Nation.

Minute examination by Government
authorities of every aspect of the bust
ness depression reveals that the open
ing week of June has particular sig.
nif1cance. For that reason indexes tt
present business activity will be watched
with extraordinary care during the
coming days.
Unpublished charts carefully pre-
pared by survey of all previous Amer
lean depressions, both major and minor
show that in each case the upward
climb from depression began Between
June l and July /.
There Is, of course, no disposition to
regard this fact as having any magical
significance. Indeed, there Is definite
determination not to so regard 1t. Com
petent authorities, however, are willing
to go so far as to admit a substantial
and fairly convincing reason for the
fact that recoveries from past business
depreSsions. have begun in June. The
first week of June is the beginning OF
the period when farm crops have ad-
vanced to point where it is possible
to make reasonably accurate estimates
about the final amount of them. In all
previous depressions the date of the
beginning of business recovery conceded
with good prospects for farm crops
This Is true despite the qualification
that there is normal. seasonal Sum-
mer let-up in industry in the most pros
porous years.
Crop Prospects Good.
So far as this observation about past
recoveries from depressions has bearing
on the present, the analogy is now borne
out by the fact that prospects for this
present Summers crops are good.
1t cannot be too much emphasized
that this coincidence of the beginning
OF business recovery with good farm
prospects in June is not relied upon as
being more than it is, namely, a uni
form coincidence. 1t can only be said
that competent authorities are strongly
interested by it. Fer the remainder OF
June there will be intent observation
OF two lines of indexes, those Of crop
prospects and OF business activity, to see
II the past parallels are fulfilled.
There Is one important condition
which raises the coincidence to some
thing more than a mere accident A
season OF good farm crops in the United
States means an aggregate of from 8
to 10 billion dollars added to the actual,
tangible wealth of the country. This
Is an enormous amount of real wealth,
considering that the total annual in
come of the country from all sources is
only about $4,000, 100000 in a particu-
larly good year, such as 1928, and in a
poor year, such as last, probably not
over so billion.
Wealth Is Tangible.
This $4,000, 0oo, 900 in farm crops,
assuming the outcome of them to be
fair, Is actual. tangible wealth. It is
not mere figures on a ledger It is
wealth that can be eaten and worn
and will be used in every sort of in
dustry. Such a crop means $10,000,-
100000 of new purchasing power for the
third of the country's population that
lives on farms From that first and
direct object of its beneficence it spreads
into every business channel and prac-
tically every pocket New crops seep
into every Granny of the country's in
dustrial structure as surely and as bene-
dcently as water into SOIL
It is not surprising that the most
cautious authorities consider that a fair
or good aggregate of crops this year
should be the force. turning prosperity
from condition of scraping the bot
tom to one of climbing upward. While
the actual addition of $4,000, 100000 to
the wealth of the country must await
the harvesting of the crops, the psyche
logical effect would begin with the
earliest signs of the state of the crops
and would keep step with those signs.
Avoid Optimism.
The present attitude of all depart
ments Of the administration is one Of
ing optimistic. 1t is almost one of dis
couraging any calling Of attention to
good signs. Nevertheless, any one ia
miliar with the privately held convic.
lions of the best authorities is i'm
pressed by the thoroughness Of their