Evening star., 1931-04-05
ROOSEVELT FAR In LEAD.
BUT HURDLES DIFFICULT
Hard Times Largest Single Basis of
Democratic Hope, Better Psychology
Could Rescue G.. o. p.

were not well founded. The rise in
wheat during August, 1896, was merely
the first sign of a general business re-
covery, a recovery which expanded TO
full swing by about the time of Nc
Kinley's Inauguration on the ensuing
March 4.
At such times as 1895 land as the
present) cause and effect become very
much confused The Republicans
claimed at the time, claim to this day
they have made political capital out Of
it for 35 years-that the business recov-
cry of 1896-97 was due to the Republic
can victory. It would be equally accu-
| rate to say that Republican victory in
1896 was due to the beginning of busi-
ness recovery.
To state the exact relation of cause
and effect on that occasion lin 1880 Is
most difficult. In the conditions Of that
year, business would hardly have picked
up courage had 1t not begun to have
confidence in Republican victory.
In that particular campaign Demo-
cratic victory would have meant de-
parture from gold as the single stand
ard of currency. If business had really
believed in 1896 that the Democrats
might win and that the country nighs
have silver coinage according to the
Bryan and Democratic fornula-h busi-
ness had felt there was real possible
ity of that, business would hardly have
been willing to make the commitments
for the future that are an essential ac-
compartment of business recovery.
The net Of which is that in any preSi-
Dental campaign (Such as next years
seems likely to be) which takes place
during the precise period when business
depression Is ending and recovery be-
ginning-in any such campaign 1t In
difficult to separate cause and effect,
difficult to say whether the political
outcome of the election is the cause or
the effect, or the merely fortuitous ac-
compartment of the condition of busi-
ness. There Is a present condition that
may produce an analogy TO the August,
1896, rise in the price of wheat and
which, therefore, may favor the Repub-
licans.
Farmers First to Suffer.
In the present business depression the
earliest industry to suffer has been
farming. Farming. indeed. has been in
more or less continuous distress for
nearly 10 years. Farmers have been
suffering year after year, while other
industries continued at high tide. Farm
ing was correctly described in the agita-
tions of several years until the FAN OF
1929 as depressed industry"
Many of the attempts to rescue the
farmer during the Coolidge administra-
ton and the early part of Mr.. Hoover's,
much of the sympathy felt for the
farmer by all classes, much of the wills
ingness on the part of the East to ap-
prove attempts at extraordinary RENE
dies for the farmer-much Of all that
rested upon the fact that farming was
in depression, while substantially all
other industry rode upon the highest
tide 1t had ever known.
The bearing of this on the future and
on next years Presidential campaign
lies in the possibility that farming, hay-
ing been the first to descend, may be
the first to rise. There is no necessary
logic to this. It Is q fact that prices
of farm crops on the average have been
very low. so low that # is difficult to
imagine their going lower. To suggest
that earlineSs in the procession Of
descent may be followed by leadership
in the procession Of ascent 1s no more
than casual.
If It should happen, however, that
the remaining months OF this year, or
the early months Of next, should see
rise In the prices Of staple farm crops.
such q development might deprive the
Democrats of their present hope OF
carrying certain Midwestern and West
ern States. It would still be true that
If business depression should continue
throughout the manufacturing states,
recovery in agriculture alone would
hardly be enough to justify the Repub-
licans IN feeling secure about the preS1s
Dental election.
Error Of Psychology.
In the fact that business depression
Is the largest single basis of Democratic
hope lie some dangers to the Demo-
Gratis. It is indisputably true that the
Democrats, as the party out OF power,
are favored by the fact that business
depression coincided with a part OF the
administration of their opponents. The
rule would work the same If the con-
ditions were reversed, II the Democrats
were in power, with the Republicans on
the outside trying to get in.
When business depression Is any
partys main reliance the leaders Of
such party tend to fan into a serious
error of psychology. Unless they are
careful and restrained they may seem
to gloat in the depression. So long az
depression continues the public psy-
chology tends to get comfort out Of
political exploitation Of it. With the
perity, however, public psychology Is
likely to be resentful against politicians
who continue TO talk peSSimiSm.
It is going to take more restraint
than most politicians In either party
are capable of, more prudence and per-
ception, for the Democratic leaders and
orators to refrain from riding the horse
"hard times" too hard, or too conSpicu-
ously, or too exultantly, or too exclu-
sively, compared with other issues.
It might be Shrewd for the Democrats
to allocate the exploitation Of woe to
their allies, the ProgreSSives, to whom
that role Is at all times familiar, while
the Democrats conf1ne themselves to
issues, topics and conditions more agree
able to the nIblic ear