Evening star., 1931-12-13
ROOSEVELT STILL FIRST.
BUT BAKER CLOSE SECOND
Governor Handicapped by Early Start,
While Ex-Secretary May Be
Compromise Choice.

, the State primaries begin. If Roosevelt
or his friends and the managers of his
fortunes go into the primaries of State
after State, and If no other equally ag-
gressiVe aspiraRt enters, Roosevelt win
acquire enough popular support to
make the national leaders think twice
about standing In his way
Presumably this will not be permitted
to happen. Partly among national
Democratic leaders who function in
politics, partly among distinguished
Democrats not active In politics, Is
sentiment for Newton D. Baker, Just
now becoming energetic enough to see
to 1t that when the convention meets
there will be at least enough delegates
for Baker to make him available to
nominate in case the party leaders de-
eide to follow that course. Bakers
personal attitude about the nomination
Is that he does not "cnerish it." That
is Mr.. Bakers own phrase. 1t means
that he would not refuse it IL given to
him-but that he will not seek 1t.
.. Baker or Roosevelt.
One of the two-Baker or Roosevelt,
it seems today-should be the Demo-
cratic candidate. Roosevelt will go
ahead and gather lot of delegates,
but probably not enough to give him
the required two-thirds. Those party
leaders opposing Roosevelt, or at pres
ent not favoring his nomination, viii
likewise assemble lot of delegates.
Some of these non-Roosevelt delegates
will be for Gov. Ritchie Of Maryland,
some for Byrd of Virginia, some for ex-
Senator Jim" Reed of Missouri, some
for Gov Alfalfa Bill" Murray of Okla
White ~ 0niO
some for Senator Lewis of Illinois.
Some of these non Roosevelt dele
gates will be for Newton d. Baker. But
Baker will not be, in the beginning, a
principal contender against Roosevelt.
The picture will not be Roosevelt versus
Baker 1t will be Roosevelt versus the
field. The field will be large enough to
"hold" Roosevelt. In that status, with
Roosevelt, so to speak, on trial, the
leaders will decide whether to nominate
him or not.
Speaking more accurately, they have
let Roosevelt have it. If in the mean
time everything has gone well with
Roosevelt, or fairly well, the leaders
may give him their blessing and the
nomination.
That is one possibility. The other
looks pretty surely toward Baker. If
the national leaders decide, under con-
ditions as of the time the convention
meets, that the nomination Of Roosevelt
would be wise, or at least wise enough,
they will step aside, the minor candi-
dates will drop away and Roosevelt will
get the prize But If the leaders, at the
time the convention meets, deem the
nomination of Roosevelt to be mex
pedient, then they will merely hold"
Roosevelt for SUFFICIENT number of bal
1F,fc fn fn his f0lInuy1wx tna
impossibility of nominating him. At
such a point the convention will pass
into a kind of fiux and the leaders win
then mold 1t to the nomination OF
Baker.
Everything Affects Him.
In the meantime, during the six
months until the convention meets in
late June, everything that happens in
Democratic politics will be interpreted
and described in the light of its relation
to Roosevelt, That is the penalty Of be-
ing what Roosevelt is--far out In front.
Some accidents will favor Roosevelt; the
greater number will harm him. Unto
ward incidents, like death, favor a
shining mark. A Western radical, Sen
ator Wheeler of Montana, indorses
Roosevelt in the newspapers; whereup-
on 10 Eastern conservatives say Though
not in the newspapers: "If Wheeler is
for him, I'm agin' him" Meantime a
Western superradical, Gov. Murray of
Oklahoma, says in. effect: Roosevelt Is
not radical enough. I, Bill Murray, am
the genuine prewar brand; If you want
the real thing, nominate me-" And
Murray will have some delegates. If
the mood at the time Is really radical,
If business conditions are worse, Roose-
welt will not be radical enough, GER
tainly not enough for some of the West.
If business conditions are better, II the
mood of next June Is cautious and
careful and don't rock the boat" then
Roosevelt will be too radical, certainly
too much so for some of the East.
1t Is the same as to prohibition.
When Southern dry, Senator Harris
of Georgia, announces in the newspa-
pers that he is for Roosevelt, dozen
Northern vets say Though not in the
newspapers): IF Roosevelt is dry
enough for Harris, or sufficiently mild in
his wetness for Harris, then he's not
wet enough for me-" Meantime the
party will have gone through fight on
the prohibition issue, in which It will
be political miracle If Roosevelt can
avoid giving conclusive offense to one
side or the other.
This sort of thing is the inevitable
penalty of Roosevelt's position in the
lead of the race. And, from this sort
Of thing, Baker, in the safe security of
his genuine indifference to the prize,
will be immune. Decidedly, Baker is
the second best bet and may be the
first