Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-17
NEW PENSION LAWS
FORECAST IN MANY
PARTS OF COUNTRY
RetTementS of dIe-Aged
Workers Expected to In
crease Within Decade.
FALSE PROFIT-MAKING
SCHEMES HELD DOOMED
Mergers Not Likely to Mean Pros
perity Unless Accompanied
by Economies.
BY JOHN F. SINCLAIR.


opposed in 1921, the birth rate in the
United States was declining. A ten
dency to limit the number of children
to make 1t possible for parents to main
tain higher standards of spending, -
or, as they are called, Standards of
living" was growing.
The birth rate dropped in the last 10
years from something over IS to Just
below 19 in 1929. The excess of births
over deaths is steadily shrinking,
though it still represents about one and
published June "a by the Census Bu-
reau showed, for example, a decline
in the number of births for 1929 of
SO per cent as compared with 1928.
Science Prolongs Life.
In the last four decades the ex-
pectancy of human life-that is, the
average number of years the infant at
birth may be expected to survive-has
pectancy at so for life after so has
not increased at all. Rather, it has
shown a slight decline. The improve
ment in the first case Is due to ire
mendous progress in the handling of
epidemic diseases which formerly af-
flicted early adult years in the treat
ment of tuberculosis and in the matter
of infant mortality deaths under
year of age). Now the most superficial
study must show that one cannot al
together abolish obstacles to human
survival. Some authorities on public
health believe we shall never get below
an infant mortality rate of As per
1000. In comparison with the total
population, further saving here cannot
bulk very large in the future.
On the other hand, look for mo-
ment at the minimum birth require
ments. That a population may survive
biased on present living conditions and
expectancy of life), and with due al
lowance made Cd for the various per-
centages of sterility and other causes
FAINT and up to the years of marriage
and 90 for the increase of celibacy,
$50 children on the average will have
to be born to every 100 mothers. Today,
according to the best informed, 230
children to each 100 mothers represents
the outside figure for the reproduction
rate of the United States.
We are not arguing here whether
it is a good or bad social policy to limit
the number of children. We are study
ing the question from the standpoint
birth rate to price levels, wage levels
and similar factors in economic life.
immigration Reduced.
The United States has reduced its
annual net absorption of adult Euro
peanS to auobt one-fourth of what 1t
was before the war, and during this
time the productive capacity of the
country as a whole must be conserva-
lively estimated as having at least
quadrupled what it was before the war.
G. nf kIa ~
among consumption, prospects and pro-
duction realities is driven home upon
us with the force of a sledge hammer.
Then, too, the changing age COM
position of our population cannot be
ignored. A hundred years ago the
average of our entire population was
around Is or 10. Today it is about
"a or Is. Much more important is
the fact that the average age of our
people between Is and IS has risen
steadily. These so years represent the
period of productivity, during which
the bulk of the worlds work is done.
A century ago the average age of the
population between is and IS was in
the very early twenties. This years
census doubtless will show that the
average age is up in the late thirties.
All these things profoundly affect our
life, buying habits, taxable capacity, and
law-abiding propensities.
The number of people over so Is
steadily and rapidly increasing. Ten
years ago something like 10 per cent
of our population were over so. The
new census probably will show just over
20 per cent. BY 1910 no less than
25 per cent of our population will be
over so. So that in the brief span
between 1920 and A940 the proportion
of our total population over so will
have increased from one-sixth to one
fourth.
Minority Interest.
This spells the creation of a very
powerful minority interest-perhaps the
largest minority interest in the popula-
tion-on the borderline of economic
activity, and incidentally across the
borderline of biological reproduction in
the great majority of cases.
Bear in mind the menacing fact that
the tendencies of modern industry to
throw out the people of so and even
of a lower age as a means of avoiding
the cost of industrial pensions and
other burdens derived from social legis-
lation will make 1t almost impossible
for us to avoid severe crisis before
the end of this decade.
We may as well make up our minds
that the policy of retirement in mid
die life, which industrial companies
are seeing fit TO apply. will result in
legislation probably in half the States
in the Union before this decade is over,
requiring special provisions from COM
panies for the employment of persons
over certain age, or the maintenance
of special funds from which such en-
ployes will be supported.
But whatever it is, the policy of the
States and the Nation in carrying an
increased number Of dependents can
not but mean an increase in the social
responsibilities of the Government. 1t
would be an impressive figure that the
League of Nations statistical office
might compile on just how many people
in all Europe, North and South Amer
Ice are receiving, directly or indirectly,
from their national or local govern
ments either salaries, doles, allowances
or military pay any form of sup
port in money or maintenance. Our
own quota in that total would run into
some millions.
Payments in Germany.
A German cabinet officer. Stegerwald,
said few months ago that fully
100000 Germans were receiving
payments of some sort, direct or in
direct, by public authority In Germany.
And all this spells more taxes,
So under our present system the pop