The daily worker. [volume] (Chicago, Ill.) 1924-1958, 1930-04-15
THE PRE-CONVENTION
DISCUSSION

we notice how all the apologists for capitalism,
all of the opportunsts, seized upon these ele-
ments of the uneven development, these fluc-
tuations within the general crisis development
which are not uniformly downward, in order
to demonstrate that analysis of the crisis
is incorrect in order to establish that the crisis
is not so deep, not so important, not so bad,
or if bad it is beginning to get better. This
was particularly demonstrated during the
months of January and February when the
steel and machine industries after reaching
extremely low point at the end of the year 60
ing down to 25 percent to 40 percent of capa-
city production, recovered from this extreme
low point and as in the case Of the steel in
dustry, doubled production in the course of
few weeks.
This course of development in these weeks of
the basic leading industries in the u. S. was
Immediately seized upon by the apologists of
capitalism to try to establish the theory that
the depths of the crisis was passed and it will
be only few weeks before normally" will be
established.
We must also face the fact that this propa-
ganda had some effect even upon our own
Party, even upon good comrades whose only
fault is perhaps lack of serious and sustained
attention to precisely such points as these. 1t
is very important that we arm movement
from top to bottom, especially the leading
cadres of our movement, to fit them to meet
such problems and understand the significance
of such immediate concrete facts as these.
The sharp fluctuations in the steel industry,
automobile industry, general machine produc-
ton exemplify the tendency of economy as
whole, the generally uneven development Of
crises.
There is first of all the fact that the crisis
struck hardest, most Immediately, in the in
dustries producing the means of production,
the basic and leading industries, and the de-
velopment of the crisis was really led by these
leading industries. These industries reached
low point of production far below the general
decline of economy as whole. In December
the steel industry went below 40 percent of
capacity; the automobile industry went below
% percent of capacity etc. Here at once we
have sharpening of the unevenness between
various sections of economy which is of partic
ular great significance in two ways First in
it's increased sharpening of the dsproportion
between the various sections of industry; and
second, in the sharpening and making greater
the fluctuations, the ups and downs taking
place within the development of the crisis.
The development of the crisis is not so much
intensified by a particular immediate move
ment of one or another industry, as it is by the
lack of stability, of lack of balance and equil-
ibrium between these various sections and their
relations to the market, in the creating of more
contradictions within the various sections of
industry. That is, not the steady downward
decline of particular industry is of so much
significance as the sharpness of the fluctu-
atons within the decline. We find that the
development of steel, automobile, machinery
production, ETC., plunging to extreme low
depths and then recovering to certain point,
so far from being evidence of the lack of the
depths of the crisis, is itself intensifying the
depths of the crisis
The crisis is made much more serious by the
fact of this extreme fluctuation in the indus
tries. more than if the industries had
steadily decline down to the same or even
lower point. This unevenness and its sharp
ening by extreme fluctuations factors
which result in extending the crisis and deep
ening it.
Further, we have the unevenness of the
tempo of the general development of the crisis.
Thus in the first months of the crisis
very sharp and rapid development, and then
with January we have slowing down of the
rate of development of the crisis. There may
even be an upward turn of economy. In fact,
judging from the experience of all past major
that before the lowest point of the economic
crisis is reached, there will be halt in the
decline and brief upturn, not only of separate
industries but of the general economy of the
country.
If we take a line representing the general
course of economy, the development of the
crisis from the highest to the lowest point is
not of general downward line but is a
zig-zag downward trend-a plunge downward,
partial recovery, and then a downward line
again.
With this in mind we can more clearly and
definitely understand that the present period,
in which there is in some industries recovery.
and in which may expect to see perhaps
even small general recovery, far from sig
nifying the ending of the crisis, is more sign
of preparation for the second downward plunge
of economy
There are many other facts that could be
cited, supporting this conception of the deep
ening of the crisis aside from the declining
factors of ecor omy in all spheres. In the first
draft of the Thesis that was sent out to you
the concrete examination of the continuation of
the crisis was largely omitted because of the
fact that this was being written as a document
for the convention which was three months in
advance and such concrete description of the
situation of the moment would be out of date