Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-10-13
RUSSIA BIG FACTOR
IN WHEAT MARKET
Short Crop in Southern
Hemisphere Might Prove
Price Aid.
BY FRANK /. WELLER,
Associated Press Farm Editor

Political as well as economic abnor-
malities seem to have influenced wheat
in its tumble to the lowest commodity
purchasing power since 1850.
Two years ago, when the world sup
ply OF wheat was about the same as it is
today, world shipments totaled $685.
100000 bushels-aN of which was abb
sorbed at basic price of 81 IS in Liver
pool. Present. Liverpool prices are
around IS cents a bushel, and still
wheat Is stacking up in the surplus
countries. There are about 100 900 O00
bushels more wheat in North America
than year ago.
However, the increase in America is
offset by harvest IN Europe (not In
sluding RuSsia) T5,0O0, 900 bushels
shorter than last year and q $4,000, 600
6usnet decrease in European stocks.
Thus the world supply Is left about
where 1t was year ago.
Farm Protection Efforts.
Economists give world-wide business
depression its share Of credit for the
drop in wheat prices, but they are not
unmindful of political changes which
more and more creep into the picture
OF average wheat supplies being sold to
an increased world population at prices
draStically reduced from two years ago.
When Liverpool was paying $135 a
bushel for wheat the efforts of every
major agricultural country in the world
TO protect Its own farmers were just be-
ginning to take form. Since then in
surmountable duties and stringent
milling regulations have cropped up in
Europe with one general result-the
narrowing Of outlet for world wheat
shipments.
The German import duty is approx
mately $l.20 bushel. The Italian tar
III is a634 cents bushel. France
maintains q requirement of 80 per cent
native wheat in milling mixtures and
tariff Of o5A cents a bushel, in add
ton To system of refunds of import
duties equivalent to an export bounty.
Consequently, native German wheat
Is selling for about 1852 blshel,
and German millers are paying approx
imately 81 bushel for wheat that sells
for IS cents In Liverpool. The situation
practically has closed German markets
TO outside wheat and at the same time
raised the cost of bread grains to the
consumer, who has even less money
with which to buy it than he had two
years ago. Influenced by tariffs, ma
tive Italian wheat has been selling at
about $l.76 and native French wheat
at $l.73. Two years ago all three coun-
tries were good customers in the world
market.
Extent Of Shipments.
Russia appears to be the most promi-
nent factor in world trade During Au-
gust and September North American
shipments amounted TO 81, 900. 900 bush
els, compared with 5000 900 for the
same period year ago; Argentine
shipments, 5000 900, against SO 900 900:
Australian, 100000. against IL ,0OO,-
600; Indian, 3,5o0,ooo, against 1000
900; Danubian, 5000, 900, against $780,
900. and Russian, $1,000 600, against
virtually none a year ago.
The presence of Russian shipments
does not mean there is any more wheat
going into the world market than a
year ago, but that it Is coming from a
source not expected to be a factor in
the market for several years. Trade
reports indicate that an additional
10000, 600 bushels has been sold for
export and q possibility that Russia
may export a total of approximately
80 600 900 bushels for the season
In the last few days several large
commission houses have been reported
TO be buying wheat at Chicago and the
theory has been advanced, mostly in
the West, that the wheat market will
lCoPOhlo W ally improvement abOChS.
Other sources deny any connection be-
tween stocks and grain under current
conditions. It is probable that bullish
! news of major Importance might pull
| the market out OF the rut. Many believe
| this will have to come from the South
ern Hemisphere, where crops are APP
preaching critical period of growth
Europe is not likely to do any sustained
heavy buying of North American grain
while there Is a prospect of heavy pro-
| duction in the Southern Hemisphere.
However. 1t is q point of the controversy
| that prices Of American wheat are
about so cents a bushel lower than last
| year and that European needs are sub
1 stantiaily larger than last year, due to
/ shorter crops in deficit countries A
1 much larger percentage of the world
supply of wheat is In surplus countries
now than a year ago, when almost all
importing countries had good haryests.