New Britain herald., 1930-09-10
Tells Annual National Bus mess Conference That Pickup Must Be Near at Hand.

Wellesley Hills. Mass. Sept. 10 (UP)-Relef from the current busi- ness depression may be expected this fall, Roger w. Babson, famed statistician, predicted today
 Though refusing to discuss the outlook for 1881, he told the 17th annual national business conference that "the tremendous drop register ed by the Babson chart since last September must soon strike bottom if it has not already done so," and he was. confident there would be a definite business pickup the coming autumn.
 "A year ago today, financial writer stated that all parts of the country were optimistic excepting Babson Park, which had the blues" Babson said. To-day I should say that most parts of the country have the blues while Bab- son Park is optimistic. In making this statement, I am referring only to our general outlook on the imme- diate situation, without making any lcng-term forecasts one way or the other"
 Babson declared that with the naughty spirit prevailing year ago. a decline was inevitable. but with the humble spirit existing today, a turn for the better is sure to come"
 At first glance he continued, Statistics show up very poorly at the present time. The subjects, which I gave you a year ago as our barometers of business, then showed for the first seven or eight months of 1929, as follows: 35 subjects showed improvement over the pre- ceding year; II subjects showed de- clines.
 Explains Error
 "The predominancet of optimistic statistics was very favorable. These naturally led the new generation to believe that they were living in a new world, under new conditions, and with new standards. Hence, their mistake is throwing the cycle theory into the scrap heap and of recommending common stocks as the most stable and profitable in vestment.
 ITO show the marked change which has taken place in 12 months, I will say that for a similar period for 1880, nine subjects show i'm c1, cline. To sum up the situation although a year ago 76 per cent of the subjects showed improvement. Today only 20 per cent show i'm provement, today only 20 per cent show improvement; although a year ago only A per cent showed decline, so per cent show a decline today" Thus, he pointed out, in the aggre- gate there was a drop from 10 per cent above normal for September 1, 1929 to IS per cent below normal for September 1, 1880.
 "Yet these statistics upon careful analysis justify an optimistic out look. at least for the coming fall,' Babson said. My reason for this statement is as follows: During the past year consumption has fallen off only about 10 per cent, taking all lines of industries and all sec tions of the country. Yet, while consumption has fallen off only 10 per cent, production has fallen off 20 per cent, and transportation of 1,o Co
 This means that the inventories of manufacturers, jobbers and re- tailers are becoming abnormally low. If consumption, production and transportation had fallen off about the same percentage, there might be no logical reason for inn proving business this fall.
 Expects Stampede
 Under the existing circumstances however. it is very possible that there may soon be a stampede of or ders and congestion of freight in certain lines and sections.
 T am making no. forecast as to 1881, which may average to be a quiet and. uneventful year; but l certainly am optimistic regarding this fall. It is just as evident today that business is now bound to inn prove, as it was evident a year ago that the high pace of early 1929 could not be kept up.'
 Declaring talk about over-produc- tion was largely hysterical," Bab- son said the real solution to the problem lay in the speeding up of