Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-10-27
SIGNS OF REVIVAL
ARE SEEN BY BANK
Guaranty Trust Reports I'm.
provement Since Depres-
sion of Summer.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, October 27.-The pro-
nounced recession that characterized
business activity in almost all lines
throughout the late Spring and Sum-
mer has given way to irregularity, with
positive improvement in some branches
of trade and industry, according to the
current issue of the Survey, published
by the Guaranty Trust Co.
The Survey finds that some encour-
agement is to be derived from recent
business developments, although it can
not yet be said that definite recovery is
evident. The banks publication reports
that there was only slight drop in the
index of business activity from August
to September and that reports for the
current month thus far indicate no Sc
rious setback.
Effect of Stock Decline.
while the trend Of business activity
thus affords some ground for optimism, !"
the Survey continues, events in certain
directions appear, at first glance, con-
siderably less favorable. The develop
ment that has undoubtedly attracted
the major share of public attention
since the beginning of october has been
the further decline in stock prices,
which has carried the general level ap-
proximately down to, if not below, that
reached Immediately after the collapse
of last october and November.
"As usual, the recession in security
values has reacted on business senti-
ment, creating in some quarters
degree of pessimism by no means war
ranted by its intrinsic Importance. AS
matter of fact, stock prices seldom,
If ever, reach their lowest point tmme-
diately after major collapse. The
initial break is almost invariably fol-
lowed by more or less prolonged
period of weakness in the course of
which the level of values ordinarily
goes below the point reached in the
early stages of defiation. To many
observers, therefore, the attainment of
new low level of prices for the
current movement came as no surprise,
but rather as an unpleasant necessity
that had to be encountered before the
readjustment could be considered COM
plete.
Commodity Prices.
Commodity prices have also failed to
maintain the firmer tendency that was
noted a month ago. In the latter part
of September and the first week of
October, renewed weakness appeared,
particularly in prices Of farm products
decline carried the wholesale price
index Of the Guaranty Trust Co. to
new low for the current movement.
The index number for October Is
stands at 500, as against 62.8 month
ago.
ION the whole, however, the be-
havior of commodity prices in the last
three months has presented an encour-
aging contrast to the consistent weak
ness that was evident during the first
seven months of the year. Recent
movements have covered a compare
lively narrow range, suggesting that the
readjustment, If not actually completed,
This view is strengthened by the at
titude of leading consumers Of indus
trial raw materials, who have shown
an increasing tendency to cover their
needs at existing prices.
Prospect Of Recovery.
"T'he failure of trade and industry
to score decisive gains during the Pc
Rod of seasonal revival in September
and October has once more deferred
the hopes of business men for an i'm
mediate recovery. Just as the down
ward course of activity last Spring led
to the general assumption that low
levels would be maintained during the
Summer, the approach of the holiday
period is now cited as a reason for the
belief that next Spring will bring the
next logical occasion for marked i'm
proyement Although there is nothing
impossible in the idea that genuine re-
coyery may begin in the interim, the
more distant expectation appears, in the
present instance, to be the more rea-
Sonable.