Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-09
BY FRANK H. sTMoNDs.


TT would be difficult to imagine a
more unpropitious moment for the
meeting of disarmament confer
i ence than the present hour. This
fact explains why Europe, If not
the United States has in advance dis
counted all possibility of achievement
ut the meeting of the Preparatory Com
mission at Geneva. BY common con-
sent the European situation is more
disturbing today than at any time since
the occupation of the Ruhr, and find
among European observers a tendency
30 go back to 1914 for a parallel.
Progress in disarmament would in
volve agreement on the part of the ma
tions with considerable armies-France,
Poland, Czechoslovakia, JugoSlavia and
Rumania-to consent to reductions
But these are precisely the nations that
are most alarmed by the recent events.
France and Poland are equally nervous
over the success of the Hitlerites and
their program, which includes a re-
vision of peace treaties at the expense
OF Poland and reputation of repara-
lions of which France is the largest
beneficiary.
Jugoslavia, on its part, is aroused by
recent Italian activities and the gen.
eral recurrence of unrest along the
Adriatic. Rnnania Is facing both do
mestic unrest and the eternal menace
incident to Russian refusal to recognize
the Incorporation of BeSsarabia in the
eastern Latin state AS for Czecho-
slovakia, it is passing through a re-
crudescence of anti-German sentiment,
stimulated by the Hitler phenomenon.
And, like Poland, CzechoSlovakia feels
itself directly exposed to any German
adventure, such as the Hitlerites have
sketched.
France Unwilling to Cut Army.
France, then, and her allies-Poland
and the Little Entente-are in no mood
10 reduce by a battery or a battalion
their present military establishment.
And France Is busily engaged in estab-
fishing q new frontier of Notifications
from Luxembourg to the Rhine. All
effort on the part of other nations to
change this state of mind can only lead
to results If other nations, notably the
United States and Great Britain, are
prepared to give guarantees against evil
consequences. And that Is, of course,
out of the question.
italy, to be sure, although armed
and, in fact, the second military power
on the Continent, is nominally ready
to support program Of reduction, but
solely to enable her to achieve parity
without expense. In other words, II
the Italians can bring about a reduc-
ton Of French military establishment
they can arrive at equality. II they
can similarly promote reduction OF
armies among the allies of France they
will still further advance their own
situation.
But for Italy-and to a degree for
Germany as well-the reduction of
armies is no more than program en-
HANGING their present situation. Ger
many has at the moment an army OF
100000 plus $50, 900 militarized police.
This quarter of a million constitutes
the best military force in Europe,
although it is handicapped by the lack
Of trained reserves, heavy artillery and
material generally. This army is, how
ever, too small to face French force
Of 100000, a Polish Of 250,0O0 and
Czechoslovak of 10000, backed by
trained reserves numbering five or six
millions.
DisprOpOrtiOnately Disarmed.
In point of fact, Of course, Germany
has a very good case for urging re-
duction, because under the treaty OF
Versailles her own forcible diSarma-
naent was to be the prelude to gen.
eral proportionate restriction OF armed
forces. Nevertheless, Germany finds
herself IL years after the armistice
disproportion disarmed and legally
COnucIlIlcu 70 COAbAAluC ia IAlAo NOL0l-
ton. She and Italy may, then, very
well make a common cause in the dis
cussions at Geneva. But it IS neces-
sary to perceive that the effect Of the
reduction of ornaments, which both
urge, would be to fortify their situa-
ton in case of war by diminishing
the disproportion between their forces
and those Of their probable opponents.
The English, If the Labor government
lasts, will doubtless follow the line
sketched by Henderson at Geneva in
September and urge reduction. But
they will be met squarely by the French
insisting upon guarantees, and the old
deadlock win be re-eStablished. At the
moment France is the single European
nation comparatively free from con-
straint imposed by worldwide depres--
sion and financially able to bear all
present burdens. Moreover, by means
Of credits France is assisting her allies
very greatly in completing their arn1a-
nnentS
washington, which appears to attach
great Importance to the new conference
at Geneva, seems once more to be IN
duenced by the old notion that France
can be isolated and coerced and that
the prospect Of German failure to pay
reparations and the concomitant reap
pearance of the issue Of war debts VIII
make the French more amenable 70
American arguments. Thus washington
seems to be relying upon the argument
that without diSarmament-or at least
reduction in armamentS-there can De