Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-03-16
COALITION IN SENATE
SUFFERS A REVERSAL
Democrat Independent Combine Split
When Vote Is Taken on
Sugar Tariff.

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seats, are likely to have fewer failures
than Republicans in trying to hold on
to %.
But the case of the Democrats is
stronger than that It happens that of
the Is seats now held by Democrats
and to be filled in elections this year,
10 are in Southern States which prac-
tically never elect a Republican to the
Senate, or to any other Office. The
Democrats, therefore, are quite certain
TO keep 10 of their Is seats. Only of
their seats are in any degree doubtful.
The Republicans are quite differently
situated. OF the % seats now held by
them and to be decided In elections
next Fall, fully are in doubtful States.
The net of 1t Is that on the mere
law of averages, regardless Of the tariff,
the Democrats are almost certain to
make some gains in the Senate. We
are sure to have in the Senate next
year substantially what we have had
ever since Mr.. Hoover was inaugurated
"a Senate in which the majority Is not
regular Republican, in which the ma
jority is made up of Democrats and in
surgent Republicans. (Unless the re-
cent blow-of on sugar should work
permanent destruction to the alliance
between the Democrats and insurgent
Republicans.)
House Situation Depicted.
Let us now turn to the House and
see what are the prospects there. In
the House now the Republicans have
very large majority, a majority of SO In
a total membership of 435.
Here, in the House also, the Repub-
licanS are certain to suffer some losses.
The present largeness of the Republican
ma jority in the House is due in part
to abnormal causes. The present House
the whole of twas elected in the
same election and on the same day as
President Hoover. Because President
success with him many Republican can
didates for Congress who would not
otherwise have been successful. Espe-
cially was this so In some Southern and
border States. It is certain that quite
q number of these seats will 60 back
TO the Democrats this Fall. Moreover,
It happens practically always that the
party which wins a presidential cam
paign wins also, on the same day, an
abnormally large number of members
Of the House. A larger vote than nor
NAL is brought out In a presidential
year. In the succeeding year-which in
the present discussion means this year
the vote falls on. In these years, like
The present. it very frequently-indee
almost alwayS-happens that the party
u power suffers losses in the House.
In short, the Republicans were bound
10 lose some seats in the House next
Fall, even If there had been no tariff
bill. Assuming this tariff bill becomes
the subject Of odium from the public,
the Republicans should lose more. It is
3 question Of how much.
Buoyant Claim OF Victory.
The Democrats when they are in q
ouoyant mood, claim they will win as
many as so seats next Fall, which would
reverse the Republican majority and
give the Democrats a small majority.
This seems utterly improbable. But
something else may happen which, If it
should happen, would be almost equally
uncomfortable to the Republicans.
Assume that the Republicans lose 20
Of their present seats to the Democrats.
That would be comparatively small
loss and could readily happen. If It
should happen the next House would
consist of 247 Republicans and 1873
Democrats.
That would look like a safe majority
FOR the Republicans. But in fact 1t
would not be, for under that condition
there would arise in the House q fac
ton of inSurgent Republicans similar
10 the faction of inSurgent Republicans
that Is now conspicuous in the Senate
There are in the House now and there
will be in the House next year at least
30 Republicans Of the same shade as
the insurgent Republicans in the Sen
ate. These are Republicans in the
other Western States, from the same
States from which the insurgent Re-
publican Senators come.
The reader will ask why these in
Surgent Republicans in the House have
not been faction, as Senators from
The same States have been, in. the Sen
ate. One possible answer Is that the
Republican majority in the House was
too large. Such a faction only arises
evenly divided-and when the faction.
therefore, by acting as a faction, may
exercise the balance Of power.
If the Republicans as a whole In the
House next year should have a majority
as low as so, 1t could readily happen
that IS or 80 of the Republicans, coming
from such States as Wisconsin, could
and would set up an insurgent Republi-
can faction exercising the balance of
power.
Republicans Facing Problem.
In short, the danger that the Repub-
leans run is that they may have in the
House next year what they already have
IN the Senate nominal majority but
an actual minority. From the Repub-
lican point Of view, to have next year
q Senate and House both acting as the
Senate has acted this year-from the
Republican point of view that would
look like an uncomfortable prospect.
And 1t would be.
From the Democratic point Of view 1t
would be happy prospect. The Demo-
Gratis exult over 1t. Anticipating it they
go back to an analogy-and then they
make s a prophecy. They say that just
as the Democrats won the lower House
after the passage of the tariff during
Mr.. Taft's presidency In 1910, so will
they-or they together with the inSur-
gent Republicans-win the House this
From this they pass to q rosy
prophecy Of what happened in 1872
wnlcn was the defeat of Mr.. Taft after
serving only one term, and the election
OF Democrat, Woodrow Wilson.
In tnls prophecy-cheerful to the
Democrats, otherwise to the Republic
cans-there are some defects. That is,
there are defects in the analogy on
which the prophecy is based One suf-
flcient defect is-there is no Theodore
Roosevelt now, as there was in 1912,
70 split the Republicans and give the
Democrats their opening.
And there is always the chance that
the public by next Fall may forget the
tarin, or take 1t for granted and think
nothing about it. The congressional
elections in November may be fought
on utterly different issues. And it Is a
possibility that the Republicans may
win a handsome majority in the House
not as large as now, but quite COM
Portable.
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