Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-07-31
TEXAS VOTE SHOWS
DIGEST POLL ERROR
Issue in Sheppard's Race for
Senate Clear Cut, With
Dry Victory.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

| Politicians who follow the current
primary elections for indexes of public
sentiment find in the Texas primary
this week an indication about the fu-
ture attitude of Congress on prohibi-
ton. In Texas, one of the strong rio-
| neer dry Senators, Morris Sheppard, ran
for denomination. Senator Sheppard
| can be described as an uncompromising
dry, He is as far as possible from being
willing TO have any modification of pro-
hibition. So far as Senator Sheppard
contemplates any change, 1t is in the
direction Of more drastic enforcement.
He has proposed law making the pur-
chaser of forbidden liquor guilty with
the seller.
Senator Sheppard, running as this
KIND OF strong dry, received 430,950
Henry, received 140,006 and minor
third candidate received 1927.
Only Issue in Race.
In making differences from such a re-
suit, inquiry must be made as to
whether there we're other issues or other
circumstances acting as a qualification.
Washington persons familiar with the
Texas primary say that modification of
prohibition was the principal or only is
sue put forward by the wet candidate
who contested Senator Sheppard's seat.
The same persons say that some portion
OF Senator Sheppard's large majority
may be due to the esteem in which he
is held, regardless of his position on
prohibition. The net of the Judgment
of persons familiar with Texas condi-
tons is that Texas is dry in proportions
not far from those indicated by the
outcome of this senatorial contest The
proportions are roughly to /.
This Tayac nn1tr0raA te nhnnrfY1e fr fI,a
drys. BY open-minded or deliberately
middle-ground politicians or candidates
for Office the Texas primary is accepted
as evidence against any likelihood of
early change in the present status Of
prohibition.
The Texas result Is especially ilklmi-
mating in its bearing on the Literary
Digest poll on prohibition, which was
completed so recently as May "a. The
the time was that prohibition sentiment
is receding.
In the Literary Digest poll Texas reg
iStered 1873 062 ballots. They we're dis
tributed as follows; For enforcement,
58,824: for modification, S7,565; for re-
peal, 36,673. To reduce the figures to
two columns there were only $685.
ballots for enforcement Of prohibition as
it now is, while there we're 74,23S ballots
favorlng change.
Accuracy of the Poll Cited.
At the time of the Literary Digest
poll many Senators, Representatives
and other politicians recalled the strik-
ing accuracy of former polls by the same
periodical as forecasts Of election re-
suits. The question was whether such
OF public sentiment on statute such
as prohibition. To political ways of
thinking. the Texas outcome Is SUM-
Gent answer. 1t means that If candi-
date for Office in almost any State
should have risked his fortunes on the
assumption of the accuracy of the Lit
erary Digest figures, he would have lost.
The outcome for Texas viii be ac-
.cepted as valid for other States. The
meaning is that State which will cast
its ballots in given proportion in an
informal poll on prohibition will not
necessarily vote in the same proportion
in an official election
This has really been the conviction of
politicians at the time of the Literary
Digest poll and since. If the Literary
Digest poll as a whole had been ac-
cepted as an accurate index, 1t would
have been necessary to conclude that
only 8 States out of the 40 remain dry.
Tt every politician familiar with ac-
tual conditions, that is prepoSterous
The outcome OF the Texas election is far
more In accord with the common judy
ment Of politicians and political OBJ
servers.
AS against what is here said. the out
come in New Jersey in June may be
cited. In New Jersey Representative Fort,
dry, got, roughly, 20 per cent of the
vote, as against Ambassador Morrow
and the other candidate favoring re-
peal. This was in practically exact ac-
cord with the Literary Digest poll. The |
better Interpretation of the New Jersey
primary, however, Is that Ambassador |
Morrow, though he favored repeal, re- |
ceived q very large number Of dry votes |
because OF his eminent standing in all |
(CopyriEht. isSo1