Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-18
SURPLUS IN WHEAT
SUPPLY INDICATED
New Figures Show Drought
Has Failed to Cut Down
Carry-over.
BY FRANK I. WELLER,
vrr,,t.r for the Associated Press.

BY FRANK /. WELLER,
written for the Associated Press.
No very definite reason can be found
for the break in wheat prices other
than that the trade, after the furry OF
buying caused by fear that the drought
had seriously cut the corn yield, mas
come to realize that there is as much
wheat In the country as there was pc
fore farmers started feeding 1t to their
live stock.
New figures indicate the North Amer
lean surplus will be about 125,0O0,OO0
bushels more than it was last year, To-
900, 1000 of which will be in Canada ana
100000 in the United States. The
increased supplies In North America ana
O larger crop in India are expected 10
offset the smaller stocks and crop in
Europe.
Supply in Europe.
Little information is yet available as
to supplies of wheat in Europe, but
stocks Of old wheat are probably around
10000, 900 bushels smaller than year
ago. The 1880 European production,
not including Russia, may be seventy
five to one hundred million bushels be-
low that of last season, largely because
of smaller crops in France and Italy.
Reports from Russia indicate that the
harvest in that country is above that
of 1929 and that the quality of the
grain is good, although of higher mois-
ture content.
Conditions in the Southern Hemis-
phere indicate larger harvest than in
1929. but the crop has four or five
months to go before harvest and con-
ditions during that period will largely
determine the outturn. A record acreage
Is reported seeded in Australia and
weather conditions continue favorable
for the growth of the crop in that
country and in Argentina. Supplies OF
old wheat in the Southern Hemisphere
are considerably below q year ago.
The August ! official estimate placed
the United States Spring wheat crop
at approximately 175,00o,000 bushels
and the durum crop in the four prin-
cipal producing States at 100000
bushels, making a total of 223, 100000
bushels of Spring wheat, compared with
22S, 100000 bushels produced last sea-
son.
The estimate of Winter wheat has
been raised to 597,000,o0o bushels, or
about 10000, 900 bushels more than the
July estimate. That is about 100000
900 bushels more than last seasons
harvest Thus the total outturn Of all
wheat would be about 821 900, 600 bush
els 100000 bushels more than in
1929.
Acreage in Canada.
The August l estimate placed the
Spring wheat acreage in Canada at
24,0S5, 900 acres and the condition of
the crop at 85 per cent of the l0-year
average yield of 1863 bushels per acre.
This suggests a crop of. 65,000,000 to
$4,000 900 bushels more than last years
harvest. Stocks of old wheat in Can
ada are estimated at 112000,000 BUSH
els, or about 100000 bushels more
than a year ago. Combining produce
ton and carryover estimates of the
United States and Canada, supplies of
wheat In North America for the cur
rent season apparently will be around
125,000,000 bushels more than those of
last year.
Marketings of hard Winter wheat
have fallen off materially, but demand
continues fairly active in most markets,
with mills and shippers absorbing the
current offerings. Cash prices, how
ever, have followed the decline in flu
lures, and for the most part are to
cents lover than a week ago.
The decline has not carried wheat
back to the lowest levels of the season,
and it still is a question how much of
the United States and the shortage of
feed grains in European countries will
have on the wheat market.
So far the shortage of corn has not
had a marked effect. on wheat. In some
sections it is being fed to live stock,
but present indications are that the rate
of feeding will decrease as the season
advances. Farmers on the Pacific Coast
are feeding barley now, and those in the
Central West are feeding oats and bar
ley.
Effect of Rains.
Recent good rains over most of the
feed-grain region have lessened the
feeding of wheat to stock. One and
half inches of rain was recorded at
Kansas City, inches at Nashville
Tenn, and from / inch at Des Moines
Iowa. to u inch in Kentucky, "a inch
in Ohio and inch in Illinois has given
crops in the worst part of the drought
area chance to improve. How much
they will improve depends on how far
gone they were before rain fell, and
whether precipitation was of the steady
type that soaks into the ground or the
hard, quick downpour that runs off
rapidly and in drought of the current
nature leaves the ground as dry as be-
fore it fell.
1t is rather difficult to determine
what effect the feeding of wheat to live
stock will have on the market. During
1901, when drought cut the corn crop,
wheat prices averaged only about half a
cent bushel more than for the i'm
medlately preceding year and for the
year following. That fact bears out the
contention that In the long run corn
prices have very little effect on the
price of wheat.