Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-07-20
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

BY MARK SULLIVAN.
.THE purpose of this article is to
say something about the pres
ent state of the times-"the
Il times" in the business sense
bad times" good times" AS
respects appropriateness, the topic hard
ly needs apology; good many folks are
talking about it, thinking about it, writ
ing about 1t. 1t is related to politics,
to the campaign now on to determine
whether the Democrats or the Repub-
licans shall control the next Congress.
The state of the times, in an economic
sense, Is always associated with politics.
Frequently the connection is forced, I'M
real, chiefly psychological. We find
George Washington, while he was Presi-
dent, in one of his letters complaining
apprehensively that he was in for a
rough period because a current drought
was sure to make crops bad.
The connection of the present depres-
sion with politics is less than one would
normally expect; that is, there is less
charging of the depression up against
politics than is commonly the case.
There is some of it, but much less than
usually happens.
In the 1907 depression (Which vas
much like the present one, eXcert chat
the 1907 one was accompanied by q
currency famine, impossible Isow), the
then President Roosevelt and big buSi-
ness" went at each other hammer and
tongS. Business, especially big business,
angry at Roosevelt for many reasons,
charged Roeseelt with responsibility
for the panic. Roosevelt retorted that
business brought it on itself. Business
and politics exchanged the usual pot
and kettle epithets.
Business, charging Roosevelt with the
panic, was able to Great public psy-
chology in which an important news
paper called Roosevelt the greatest
| panicmaker in history" and the New
that day, addressed Roosevelt thus:
Hail, Caesar! We who are about to
bust salute theei" Roosevelt was not
the man to let that go by without
notice. He retorted in a speech he
made at Provincetown, Mass, that big
business had brought on the depression
itself, had brought it on deliberately
Roosevelt said that big business was
angry at him because of his trust
busting" and in order to discredit him
had precipitated panic.
Neither Proved Accurate.
Neither the charge made by big busi-
ness nor the retort made by Roosevelt
was accurate. The depression of 1907
was "tn the cards; 1t was due to
arrive as the resultant Of several causes.
One of the principal causes was the
lack OF a national banking system. That
lack has since been reInedied. We now
have the Federal Reerve System. Be-
| cause we have that this depression has
not been accompanied and cannot be
accompanied by any currency famine
To this extent the present depression
cannot be as disastrous as the 1907 one
But the 1907 panic was due to come
The wise leaders Of finance, the gray.
haired old gentlemen who had been II
business for more than 90 years, knew
1t had to come. Any one can look ur
4, the New York newspapers of more thar
q year preceding the 1907 panic anc
f1nd the venerable Jacob H. Schiff, Their
head of Kuhn, Loeb g. Co., saying that
due to several causes, chiefly the lack
OF national banking system, the coun-
try was due for panic compared tc
which previous ones would seem like
child play"
To complete the allusion to the 1907
panic-the crisis of it, the runs on
banks, with the banks unable to give
depoSitorS the money that the deposi-
tors owned, occurred on October %
1907. The ensuing Winter of 1907-0e
was pretty bad-very much worse than
last Winter. But by June, 1908, public
psychology was fast getting back to
normal. Roosevelt was able to name
Taft as his successor in the Republican
nomination for the presidency, and in
the Fall Taft was elected over Bryan
by rather more than a normal major
ity. The Senate and House continued
to remain in the hands Of the party
the Republicans that had been in power
when the depression occurred.
The net Of this part of the analogy
is that there Is no reason to expect
that because of the business depression
Congress will be turned over to the
Democrats next Fall. One need not be
so limited, one might put it, with some
reservation, that there is no reason
to expect that for any reason or all
reasons Congress will be turned over to
the Democrats.
Democratic Senate Secuted.
OF the two bodies that compose Con-
gress, one, the Senate, is about as GER
tain as anything can be in politics to
remain Observation-Disclosures. that is.
counting the Progressive or insurgent
Republicans as part of the Republican
majority that organizes the Senate.
To put the case in figures, the Demo-
Gratis have now 80 Senators out of q
total of g. To have a majority, to be
hOAC W NOLlbAO4 VIC OCIldVC 1OA
selves, and to organize it and control
its committees-to do that the Demo-
Gratis would need to gain 10 more in
order to have majority, 40. They
cannot possibly do it. None Of their
leaders expects to do 1t. In the sena-
torial elections next Fall the Democrats
might readily gain as many as three.
They might even, If there were ire
mendous landslide, gain as many as
six. But they cannot gain 10. And
the present fact is that nobody sees any
landslide in the making. The net of
which is that in the next Senate about
the best the Democrats can hope is to
have AZ, which is seven less than q
majority.
AS respects the House, the conditions
favoring the Republicans are not quite
so convincing; that is, while we can say
with practically mathematical positive
ness that the Democrats cannot gain
control of the Senate, the positiveness
in the case of the House Is not quite
so mathematical. Yet the writer of this