Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-04-03
MODERATE Revival :
IN INDUSTRY SEEN
Second Quarter Likely to Fall
Short of 1929 Levels,
Survey Indicates.

The closing days Of March and Of the
first quarter found the key industries
facing the prospect of a moderate rise
to a Spring peak in business late in
April or early in May, reports The
Business Week in making public the
results of survey just completed. At
best, the survey report shows, it is I'M
likely that the general level of business
activity will return to normal before
tate FAN, or toward the end Of the third
quarter. The prospective moderate
spring revival will follow a secondary
recession which, resulting from a ten
dency to overestimate current con.
sumner demand early in the year, made
Itself felt around the middle of Feb
ruary.
Spring Demand Picks Up.
In the past two weeks" says The
Business Week. there has been sorns
improvement in consumer demand in
most lines with the opening of the
spring season. This influence is be-
ginning to spread back to the primary
industries, and at the end of the first
quarter OF this year general business
activity on the whole is probably back
again 10 the levels reached in the jan
iary rlSe-or will be early in April.
March as whole will probably show
very little Improvement over February.
On the whole the second quarter now
beginning should make a fair compare
1923, though far below 1929"
INDUSTRY by industry. the survey re-
yeaIeo the following conditions as the
4lrSt quarter reached its end:
Construction Improves.
Construction.-At the end of the first
quarter construction activity is above
up public and utility construction Is sf
last, being felt. Heavy construction.
SO per cent below last year in January
ana AZ per cent below in February. re-.
gained the 1929 level for March. Under
seasonal stimulus building will prob
apiy run considerably above last years
levels during the next quarter. It NAV
mold higher through the year.
FoWer.-lhe f1rst two weeks in March
showed very little change. Since then
mere has been a definite uptlIrn-
SlacKness in demand has been and still
| Is marked in industrial areas serving
tne automobile industry, in iron and
steel in Western Pennsylvania and
eastern Ohio. in bituminous coal min
ing and copper regions. For the country
as whole electric output is above the
mounting pSIIOQ OF last year. bit
less than the normal growth. All indi-
cations are, that power demand has
passed its low point and is showing
de1inite signs of recovery. Except for
certain areas the outlook for the Second
quarter is good.
Coal Output Declines.
Coal.-.Bituminous coal production,
demand and prices in March were lower
IMAM IN January, lower than last wear
and than the average during preceding
years. The decline in production has
been practically continuous since the
last week of January. This decline iS =
reflection chiefly of industrial recession.
ano recovery depends upon the trend of
! wear o"' 4io4i
Chemicals.-The first two weeks If
march barely held their own. but the
Iast haf of the month saw substantial
revival, which will probably bring the
average per cent or per cent above
February. The first quarter as a whole
was considerably under 1929, but sub
stantially above 1928.