Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-31
CHANGES OF DEMOCRATIC
SENATE CONTROL COUNTED
Republicans Held Likely to Lose More
Seats in Fall Election, But Majority
Remains in Doubt.

voluntarily out of total of % Is an
arresting fact. It runs counter to the
common rule about holding on to
public Office It violates all statistics
about of11ce-holding. 1t bellies the an
Gent adage that flew die and none
resign" The Democrats say, jeeringly,
that these six Republican Senators re-
tired because they were afraid. The
Democrats claim these six would have
run If the running had been good. No
doubt there is something in that jeer,
something in the idea that Senator
does not retire voluntarily If he thinks
he can be reelected. The Democrats
point out that no Democrat whatever
has retired voluntarily exception, in
particular sense, Brock of Tennessee).
Some Have Good Reasons.
Omitting partisan slant in the way
Democrats look at this point, it is prob
ably true that some of the six Repllb-
leans who retired voluntarily did so
because they felt that in their respec-
tive States this might not be a good
Republican year. Some, however, re-
sons. A Senator with the name of
Patrick j. Sullivan (of Wyoming) never
retired because he wanted to run away
from fight. Sullivan retired mainly
because of his health. Neither did
David j. Baird, jr., of New Jersey, run
away from a fight; Baird's retirement
had one effect, hopeful from the Re
publican standpoint, of giving the Re-
publican nomination to Ambassador
Dwight Morrow. Other of the six
had personal reasons for voluntarily
retirement that are perfectly well I'M
derstood. The six Republican Senators
kfF.fw4 4
Massachusetts,, Frederick H. Gillett:
West Virginia, Guy d. Gof; Colorado.
Lawrence c. Phipps: Wyoming. pat
rick j. Sullivan; Maine. Arthur r.
Gould; New Jersey, David Baird, jr.
Republican Grip Is Uncertain,
The main point is: out of those "a
seats now occupied by Republicans
how many will they hold in November
and how many will they lose to the
Democrats?
The Republicans are as certain 10
hold some of these States as the DEM
ocrats are to hold their 10 in the solid
South. But whereas there is certainty
that the Democrats will hold ten
thirteenths Of their seats. the ratio Of
certainty is much smaller in the case
OF the Republicans. The Republicans
can count with fair certainty on hold
ing at the very least, 10 of their %.
To speak dogmatically about GER
talnty in connection with these Re-
publican seats is TO walk right up to
the margin OF doubtfulness. The line
between what States the Republicans
are sure to hold and what States are
doubtful Is flne-and controversial.
Hardly any one would question. how
ever, that the Republicans will hold
their seats in Oregon. Maine, Kansas
CD, New Hampshire, Michigan, PENN
sylvania, New Jersey, Wyoming, Idaho.
Illinois Probably to Stay G. o. r.
Quite probably that list of 10 Re-
publican seats certain to be held by
them is Too brief. Probably every Re-
publican leader in Illinois will cry to
heaven about the omission of Illinois
from the list of certain Republican
seats. The writer of this article agrees
that their complaint is justified Illi-
nois in It's entire history since the
Civil War Il think) has sent lust one
Democrat to the United States Senate:
Illinois recently has had two rules.
one has been to select its Senators for
one term only; the other has been to
elect Republican. The only excep-
was in LELAND that was because the
Republicans were split; 1912 was the
year when more than half the Re-
publicanS in the country went of after
Theodore Roosevelt to form the Pro-
gressive party and let lot Of Demo-
Gratis get into Office. including Wood
row Wilson. In Illinois in 1912, the
Republicans being split, a Democrat,
James Hamilton Lewis, won the Sen
atorship. When conditions became
normal again Lewis was retired. Now
Lewis has this year got the Demo-
cratic nOlf1iTzp ftnN1 nj lie q
back. The answer would seem to be
that this year the Republicans are not
split. The saying Is almost as true Of
Illinois as of Iowa: Iowa will 90 DEM
ocratic when hell goes Methodist"
Buckley Is Strong Contender.
There is much talk about the Demo-
Gratis electing their senatorial candi-
date in Illinois. There is little talk, as
yet. about the Democrats electing their
senatorial candidate in Ohio. Before
the campaign ends there will be much
talk about the Democrats carrying
Ohio. This prediction chat there will
be such TALK may give offense to the
Ohioan who happens to be official head
of the Republican party, Senator
Simeon d. Fess 1t is not that Senator
Fess is personally concerned, for he is
not up for reelection. But he will
regard it as scandalous to put in print
the suggestion that Ohio may 60 Demo-
cratic this year Yet as between the
chances of Illinois going Democratic
and the chances of Ohio, there is no
comparison. Without spinning too
much about the conditions, there are
at least two reasons. One is that Ohio
goes Democratic almost as often as IL
goes Republican. Since 1900 Ohio has
had Democratic Governor, for ex-
ample. much larger number of years
than 1t has had Republican one. The
second reason why Ohio may elect q
Democratic Senator this year is that
the Democrats have nominated an ex-
tremely able man as candidate In the
person Of Robert j. Buckley of Cleve-
land.
IL Seats Held Doubtful.
Since we are in the field of loose
prediction, one may be even more ciar-
ing. The present writer thinks Ohio
Is more likely to elect a Democratic
Senator than Massachusetts, is To any
experienced observer of Massachusetts,
politics Calvin Coolidge, for example)
It viii take lot Of proving to convince
him that Massachusetts, will elect q
Democratic Senator this year
In something like rs years of his
tory Massachusetts, has had just one
Democratic Senator. This is David I.
Walsh. now sitting That Senator
Walsh's senatorial mate, to be elected
This year, should also be a Democrat
would be political miracle. II, after
.he November election, Massachusetts,
,urns up with two Democratic Senators
then we shall have passed through a
political revolution, and such a reVolu-
ion would have meaning outside Mas
achusetts.
IT, ,xa2 ox.ox- fro.s. s..,l...s.s.-r e..
here are among the % Republican
eats to be filed in November about 10