Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-07
CONTROL OF HOUSE IS HELD
PRINCIPAL ELECTION ISSUE
Precedent Points to Presidential Victory
in 1892 if Democrats Should
Win Whip Hand.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

7\HE principal question In this
campaign is whether the Demo-
Gratis will win control of the
House of Representatives. That
tsSeRnS, whether the Democrats
IN the November election will win 81
seats cat least) away from the Repub-
licans. (The present House, not count
ing vacancies, is 270 Republicans, les
Democrats.)
To win 50 seats is the Democratic
objective. That way of putting 1t is in
the main correct. Some Democratic
leaders would prefer not to win 54 seats
and not to win control of the House
In their lesser wish they are perfectly
sincere and are thinking of the good
of the party as they see 1t.
See Possibility of Errors.
Their wishes for not winning quite
90 much as a majority of the House are
two In the first place they fear what
their party in the House might do If it
should have a majority. They think
It might run Wild They think it
might do things which would ALLEVIATE a
part of the public-and might thereby
impair, instead of further, the chance
of the Democrats winning the presi-
Dental election of 1882. The Demo-
Gratis, If they should win q majority.
would have responsibility-and some of
the Democratic leaders are apprehen-
Bive about what their rank and file
might do If 1t had the power and the
responsibility that goes with majority.
In the same spirit this group of DEM
ocratic leaders think their party would
be much better off If they should win,
not majority Of the House, but num-
Der just short of a majority. In that
happy result the Democrats would be in
the best possible position to harass the
Republicans. The Republicans would
have the majority-and would thereby
be responsible before the country. But
the Democrats would be so near a ma
jority as to be able to haraSs the Re-
publicans In carrying out their re-
sponsibility.
Balance Of Power Sought.
The Democrats, If they had, say,
within 20 of a majority, would be able
to find among the Republicans about
10 who would be insurgent Republi-
cans. With 10 such the Democrats
could overcome a Republican majority
of 20. The situation would then be in
the House the same as 1t is in the SEN
ate. 1t would be a nominal Repub-
hcan ma ority, having responsibility be-
fore the country because 1t seems to
have a majority-but an actual ma
3ority composed of Democrats and in
surgent Republicans-an actual ma
9QIlty WHICH MOltu kuhkG IL ulIuCllL
the nominal Republican majority to
carry on. The result would be, in the
eyes Of the country, Republican inabil-
ity to carry out legislative program
and apparent ineptness Of Republican
leadership.
That is the real. and from political
standpoint the quite legitimate hope Of
many Democratic leaders. That is the
outcome of the coming election which.
L. A@n &C. Il ~anl~. 81 NJ
publiCans seem most ineffective and
which, therefore, would most facilitate
Democratic advantage in the presiden-
tial election of 1882. CT Is the presi-
dental election of 1882 that is, quite
naturally, the ultimate objective Of the
Democrats.)
Want to Win All Possible.
The Democrats, however, cannot go
into this years campaign with any def
mite and restrained number of seats as
their objective. They must conduct the
campaign so as TO win the largest pos
sible number of seats, so as to win every
possible seat. The shrewdest Demo-
cratic leaders may hope their total
winnings will be less than a majority
but they must so conduct the campaign
as to try to take every possible trick.
Consequently we must look upon the
Democratic objective as being to win a
majority of the House for the sake of
the omen it would be. the expectation it
would set UP for the 1892 presidential
campaign that is the true and final OBJ
Jective.
According TO precedent for long
time, the winning by the Democrats of
q majority of the House in November
would oe followed by their winning the
presidency in 1882. The theory is that
the election of majority of the House
is the beginning Of new tide and that
the new tide at its height elects Pres
tdent.
Precedent Began in 1894.
This deduction from precedent may
be stated thus: Whenever, in the mid
die of presidential term Gas the pres
majority of the House of Represent
atives it follows in the ensuing presi-
Dental year Gin the present case 1892
MAT the party out of power elects its
candidate for President and becomes
he party In power
The precedents, to take those of the
Ast 20 years, began with 1894. In that
year the Democrats were in power with
Cleveland in the White House; the Re-
aublicans won the 1894 congressional
Ilections-and in 1896 won the presi-
Dental election with Mckinley.
The next example of this set of con-
titions arose in 1910. In 1910 the Re-
eublicans were in power with Taft in
dhe White House. In 1910 the Demo-
crats won a majority of the House
and in 1912 they elected their presiden-
dal candidate, Woodrow Wilson.
The third and most recent example
occurred in 1918. In 1918 the Demo-
Eats were in power with Wilson in the
White House. In that year the Repub-
Scans won control of the House-and
Swo years later, in 1920, they won the
presidency with Harding and have held
It ever since. In short, all the prece-
dents arising during 40 years point the
same way.
First Step for Presidency.
In all those precedents the first step
Of electing majority Of the House two
years in advance.
The particular one Of these prece-
dents which the Democrats this year
look back to is the 1910 one. They cite
what they regard as an ominous par
allel between the 1910 situation and
the present 1880 one.
The parallel does go some distance
BOT falls immensely short of going the
feiiole distance In 1910 the Repub-
Hcans lad Taft In the White House and
had control of the House by a majority
OF 2I9 to i72. Up to this point the
parallel is good In 1910 the Repub-
leans had just completed a tariff re-
vision; here again the parallel is good.
In the 1910 congressional elections the
Democrats won control of the House by
22S to leland this is the part Of the
parallel which the Democrats hope to
accomplish this year. The remaining
part OF the parallel, which they viii
hope to accomplish in 1882 (assumine
they accomplish control OF the HOUSE