Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-02
END OF BUSINESS
DEPRESSION SEEN
Lumber Man Believes U. S
Industry Has Reached Bot
tom and Sees Upturn.
By JOHN F. SINCLAIR.

BY JOHN f. SINCLAIR.
Special Dispatch to The star.
NEW YORK. September 2,-Whhe T.
I, Carpenter, Minneapolis lumber man
does not believe that business in that
industry during the last quarter OF 1881
will equal that of the corresponding
period of 1929. he is convinced that
the worst of the business depression
Is over ,,o
about reached the bottom of the present
economic reaction and that business
rsylditions may be expected to improve
from now on" says Mr.. Carpenter
''The forces that are making for nusl-
ness recovery are in the aScendency, out
the recovery will be more gradual than
many hope and believe, for the tollow-
Eve have. both in Canada and the
limited States an accumulation u
wheat from the harveSts OF year ago.
The prices of wheat and food grams
generally are low, as the the prlcJs ;s,o %
many of the standard commodities.
In nv Judgment, because OF these low
commodity values, we can haroly ex-
meet a return to normal business activity
before the middle of next year.
Lumber Industry.
Another we'll known lumber man OF
the Middle West gives the severe re-
6,,ction" in residential construction as
one of the outstanding tribulations
of the industry. Contracts for TINS
class of building, reported for the nrSt
seven months of $780, compared WIN
the same period last year, showed
decrease of 49 per cent.
Stocks in the hands OF retail lumoer-
men are reported as very low any
business that is developed VIII SNOW
itself in an immediate oemanu On s s,re
manufacturer. Many retail yafos are
closing out old lines ana cutting over
heads To The bone. Dead WOOD is pe-
ing eliminated, ,,o,. +,,a
recovery of the lumber business To-Day
are the low volume OF resloentlal eon-
struction, the difficulty OF hnanclhg tnIs
class of construction in certain sectloliS'
the unsatisfactory agricultural conol-
lions and in addition to this, the very
great difficulty of keeping the proouc-
ficn of lumber leveled of with the de-
One well known lumberman, asked
I,ie oninion on the situation in LUMBER,
expressed it as follows:
1--WE feel that we reached the bottom
of the trough in July, but are somewhat
uncertain as to just how woe the DOT
tom of the trough is. 1t is now so laVe
in the year that we are not expecting
much from the remainder OF 1t. except
a gradual betterment in the way OF IN
creasing confidence, which we believe
will result in considerable improvement,
beginning in the early part OF next
year"
Bankers Convention.
rr-,, ayos of business America on
Senten1ber % will turn to Cleveland,
Ohio. when the annual meeting OF the
American Bankers Association opens.
Three questions of major Importance
will come up for discussion, according
To John c. Lonsdale, president OF the
Mercantile Commerce Bank q Trust
Co, st. Louis, Mo, and president OF
the association.
These three questions are these re-
latine to bank taxation, branch bank
ing and bank earnings. :,
Bank taxation has been mooted
question for years. Various states nave
passed acts to tax banks in different
WAYS. only to find the bankers obJectlng
strenuously in having their banks
placed in class by themselves Ior pur-
poses of taxation"
What of branch and chain banking?
Will the movement be fought, or Will
the bankers decide to accept the hano-
writing on the wall?
Bank earnings are causing the coun-
try banks plenty of trouble these days
Thousands of them are not paying their
expenses.
And in the Hobbies and on the streets.
the informal meetings of bankers Will
seek an answer to that ever-present
question Of questions today:
when will the business upturn
Gomez"
July Business.
The Brookmire Economic Service has
announced that July business was the
lowest since the postwar depression.
Their business index declined to 80 per
cent of normal in July, as against 81 per
cent in June. It's the lowest figure re-
corded since February 1922, when the
recovery from the 1921 depression was
lust getting under way. Every item IN
the composite list declined.
The greatest recessions were in steel
which dropped from SO per cent OF
normal in June to "a per cent In July
in pig iron, which declined from 81 pei
cent to "a per cent, and in motor We
hicle production, which slumped from
50 per cent to 81 per cent.
prospects are that there will be less
seasonal improvement this Fall thar
usual, making for decline in our sea-
sonally corrected index Any further
recession, however, will be gradual anc
moderate" says the service. Improve
ment can be expected to set in around
the first of 1881 and to be fairly pro-
nounced by the Spring"
sure, business is scraping bottom
right now, and we all know it, because
we hear the creaking sounds from below
But those noises are going to get less
frequent as the months go by" said 9
New York banker when l showed hin
the Brookmire report.
Unemployment Problem.
c. B. Miller Of Carson, Prize, Scott &
Co., large retail and wholesale mer
chandise distributors in Chicago, say
no great increase IN the volume OF bust
ness can be expected until the larg'
army of unemployed is absorbed again
in industry.
Still business is improving" says Mr.
Miller. We anticipate gradual in
crease from this time on, but We don
anticipate large increased volume unit
the major industries employ labor NOR
generally"
More and more the problem of thu
unemployed is assuming greater ant
greater Importance.
(Copyright, 1890. by North American News
paper AllianceJ
. .