Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-31
D. c. TRADING ZONE
CHARTED IN EFFORT
TOA|DMERCHANTS
Board of Trade Authorizes
Preparation of Survey on
Scientific Basis.
COMPETITIVE RELATION
TO BALTIMORE REVEALED
Effect of Population Upon Sales
Volume Gives Clue to City's
Prospects.

S. Lusk, Inc, for the purpose Of assist
ing merchants and business men in
planning retail selling, advertising and
related merchandising efforts.
Heretofore it has been the practice to
draw circle with some convenient ra-
dius, or to take some other geometric
area. and to label it "our city's market
ing area" disregarding the nearness of
other large cities with important mar
ket stakes in the section. This has been
the case with Washington.
Basis Of Computation.
Using the method of william j.
Kelley, Phi. D., marketing specialist and
associate professor of business admins
tration at the University of Texas, de-
V1Sed as the result of an extended field
study covering hundreds of localities
the market area of Washington has
been plotted. The map accompanying
tnls article shows the results in graphic
form.
The business that each of two COM
peting cities of WASHINGTON and Bal
tlmore may reasonably expect from any
point in the same area depends upon
their relative populations and distances
from the selected point. DR.. Reilley's
investigation shows more specifically
the business that one large city can ex-
pect from any place in the same nearby
section IS In direct proportion to that
secured by another nearby large city, as
the population of the two cities and
mVerSely as the square of the rates of
their respective distances from the par
t1cular place.
For example, at point midway be-
tween two large cities, one of 200 600
population and the other of 100 900. the
larger city will secure 100000 100, 0OOths
or TWO times the business secured by
the smaller in the same place. On a
percentage basis, the larger city secures
6625 per cent of the out-of-town BUSH
ness, the smaller city 3S1s per cent.
Also. with two cities, both say of
100000 popular, one 20 miles dis
tant from an intermediate market point
and the other 10 miles distant, the
business the nearer city obtains is
twenty-tenths or two times that Sc
cured by the more distant city. Ex-
pressed as percentage, the nearer city
gets 30 per cent of the intermediate
towns out-of-town business, and the
city farther away 20 per cent.
Division Of Business.
For Laurel, Md, which is practically
equally distant from Washington and
Baltimore, the division of business is
80 per cent for Washington and So
per cent for Baltimore, the latter's
larger share, being due, Of course, to
It's greater population.
BY use of the map above, the APP
proximate percentage that Washington
may expect from any city in the
market area may easily be obtained.
Thus, Gaithersburg, in the rs per cent
10 90 per cent zone, and slightly nearer
TO the rs per cent line than to the so
per cent line, may be expected to give
slightly more than the average of rs
per cent and SO per cent. or somewhat
more than 62l2 per cent.
An idea of the extent of this market
may be obtained by a consideration of
the population in the area. The pop
ulation in Maryland included in the
market area, according to 1880 census
hgureS, Is 150,397. In Virginia the
population included in the market area,
limited to a 30-mile radius of Wash
ington, is 94,68I.
AS a market for style goods, figuring
so per cent of the population included
in the rs per cent to so per cent zone,
rs per cent of the people in the rs
per cent zone, and rs per cent of the
people in the 100 per cent to rs per
cent zone, these populations form a
market equivalent to that OF $4,000
people from Maryland residing in the
center of Washington and 10000 people
from Virginia. This is equivalent to
adding 10000 to the population of
Washington, making an equivalent
population of around $4,000.
Any tributary region is, of course,
principally a market for style goods,
such as clothing of the better class,
radios, furniture and the like, rather
than standardized and convenience
goods, such as stoves, soap and the
staple foods, coffee, sugar, etc. Never
tngton market area other than Alex
andria as large as 5000 population, the
opportunities that lie in this area are
enormous.
A more complete realization of the
value of this rich section to Washington
may be obtained by a further refer
ence to DR.. Reilley's findings. In this
study also checks were made of the
classes Of merchandise carried in towns
of various sizes
Results of Survey.
A survey Of more than $50 towns re-
vealed the following:
That before q town could support
a furniture store, even when the sale
of secondhand furniture was combined
with that of new, it was necessary to
have a population of 1000.
That population of 5000 was neces-
sary before town could support a
mans and woman's shoe store, even
when hosiery was also sold.
That populations of 10000 and so, 900
respectively, were needed before a town
could support womans hat store and
a mans hat store.
That population of $500 was neces-
sary before a music store could be sup
ported, and 5000 for the support of a
mans apparel store.
With no towns larger than 5000
other than Alexandria in the section,
its dependence upon Washington for q
large share OF its purchases Is readily
seen.
While a number Of factors operate to
make faulty the general laws used in
this determination, among these factors
being lilies of transportation in the
area, the classes of consumers, the
social and amusement attractions of
Cred by the various competing cities,
the Typographical and climatic condi-
tons prevailing at any particular point,
and the like, it Is nevertheless true that
on the whole the determination is exact
within a small percentage of error.
1t Is not to be gainsaid that the re-
suits obtained by this method are far
superior TO anything that has previous