Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-02
GERMAN REPUBLIC SEEN
NEEDING OUTSIDE HELP
Question of Scaling Down of War Debts
Involves United States as Well
as Other Creditors.

establishing a link between debts and
reparations. To be sure, the debtors
can have partial moratorium on noti-
| fication, but all are looking Tor some
thing far more decisive.
European expectation is based upon
various calculations. On the German
side there is the belief that there
will presently be a clash between
the interests of the American Gov
eminent and private investors; that
by situation in which further insist
! ence upon reparations payments Will
produce an economic collapse and g
political upset in Germany which Will
wipe out not merely reparationS but prl-
vate debts. Thus they believe that
bankers and investors will urge upon
President Hoover and Congress an &C
ceptance of a far-reaching reduction IN
allied debts which will automatically
scale down reparations obligations.
Count on U. S. Loss.
The British and the French on the
other hand, count upon the rapid
shrinkage of American foreign trade.
They argue that the American indus
trial and financial interests confronted
by the fact that our exports are shrink
ing, and satisfied that Europe cannot
both buy our goods and pay allied
debts, will approach Washington urging
the reduction, the very far-reaching re-
duction, of the war debts. Moreover,
for some reason hard to explain on this
side of the Atlantic, British and French
opinion is already convinced that
American policy is changing rapidly.
The danger that Germany may go
off in a Fascist explosion, while not i'm
mediately pressing, is always present.
1t will remain present just as long as
the economic condition in the country
continues bad. The psychological ef-
feet of bad times coupled with relatively
enormous foreign payments on account
of q lost war cannot be mistaken. In
the end the nations which defeated
Germany in the war may be forced to
consider the choice between agreeing TO
let Germany of from further repara-
lions payments and running all the
risks which will be incident either to
political upheaval and a Fascist dicta-
torShip or a general condition OF an
archy and civil strife.
In the end, too, the decision will have
to be made in Washington and London.
Little help will come from France, be-
cause the French are only ready to CO.
operate in any German salvage enter
prise provided on the one hand the
British and Americans are ready to
scrap their claims upon France, and on
the other the Germans are prepared to
accept as final the territorial terms OF
the peace treaties.
Stabilizing Effort Needed.
A nationalist France would not be too
deeply troubled by financial crash in
Germany or by a political upheaval,
provided the result we're the Gripping
Of Germany for another generation.
Radical France, on the other hand,
would like cooperation with republic
an Germany. But at the moment the
balance between nationalist and radical
in the French chamber Is very even and
the followers of BRAND are in no posi-
ton to go very far with the old Locarno
idea.
If Germany is to be saved for democ-
racy it must be done by London and
Washington-in fact, by Washington,
for London Is facing a combination of
domestic and imperial troubles that are
staggering. But American leadership
preSuppoSeS agreement between Con-
greSS and the President upon a broad
and general policy of debts and repara-
tionS, a policy enviSaging immediate
moratorium and eventual scaling down
If not cancellation. The alternative of
continued non-intervention, Of tradi-
Clonal ISOLATION VIII have plain conSe-
quences.
What is happening now is simple.
Paris, London and Berlin are expert
menting in American opinion. They
are at one time trying to convince us
that it is to our interest to save Ger
many and endeavoring to assure Bruen-
ing that he will have outside support to
meet his home dangers. If, however, 1t
should become clear that no help will be
forthcoming from the United States,
the situation would change rapidly. and
I do not believe the Bruening cabinet
would last long. 1t Is cabinet that
can survive only as it Is able to get
done legally and pleasantly what Ger
many, means to do in any event-name-
ly, get rid of reparations. 1t is a cabi-
net to eliminate reparations by, the
moratorium route. The Hitler method
would be shorter and uglier.
(Copyright. 1e3o)