Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-08
"As Maine Goes"

CldI SClenCeS OF columbia University
has investigated "off year" elections in
Maine and has come to the conclusion
that there is very little truth in the
old saying that las Maine goes so goes
the Nation" Maine is holding its
election today, clinging as 1t does to
the September date for State and con-
gressional elections, while the rest of
the country waits until November. The
Republicans, unless all signs fail, are
to win. That is nothing unusual in
Maine. If the Democrats should win
in the Pine Tree State today, their vic
tory might well be interpreted as the
landslide in November. 1t would be
comparable to a Republican victory all
along the line in North Carolina. So
a Republican victory in Maine today
will not necessarily mean a great deal
But If the Republicans roll up ma
jority that is comparable to other off,
year victories in that State, the G. o. P.
will be nightly heartened. And cour-
age is what they need to tackle the
campaign in some Of the other States
this year.
The Council of Research of Columbia
University, it appears, has been max
ing study of methods used in gaug-
ing political sentiment in the United
States" which is just another way of
saying political prophecy" in which
newspapers, magazines and, above all,
the politicians themselves indulge. The
inquiry into the old claim that Maine
elections in an off-year, or in any year,
can be considered a reliable barometer
Of political sentiment throughout the
country is part of the broader study.
The council has looked into Maine
elections from 1874 to 1925, a matter of
ffty-two years, and finds that in the off,
year elections, when there is no presi-
dental contest, there is Every little re-
lationship between Republican strength
registered at the Maine ballot box in
September and the ability of the Re-
publican party to gather votes through
should be encouraging to the Demo-
Gratis If Maine runs true to form in to-
days election and elects a Republican
Governor, Republican Senator and
Republican members Of the House.
The council omitted from its calcula-
tons the elections in Maine in 1914,
1890 and 1878, because in those years
the situation was complicated by strong
third-party movements. Sticking to the
so-called normal years, it was found
that the results in Maine, as compared
to the entire country, were in error
from one to eighty-nine seats, or an
average Of about twenty seats per elec-
ton. This is for off-year elections. In
presidential years the Maine results
have as rule been more nearly a real
indication of how the rest Of the coun-
try would go.
A better rule, according to the coun-
Gil Of research, to estimate what Is 60
ing to happen in the congressional
elections this-y year is merely to study
what has happened in off-year cleo
tions, no matter which party has been
in power.
THE habit of the American electo-
rate to debate administration strength
in the House of Representatives in off,
year elections" is the way the council
describes this political phenomenon.
In other words, the American people
almost invariably take a crack" at
the administration in power after two
years Of its administration. Sometimes
this is mild rebuke, as in 1926, when
the Republicans lost only nine seats
after the first two years Of the term
Of office to which Mr.. Coolidge was
elected. -Four years earlier. however,
when Harding was President, the Re-
publicans lost seventy-seven seats in
the congressional election and had their
majority reduced to a mere handful
Of votes. In 1918 the Democrats lost
control of both the House and Senate,
half way through President wilson's
second term of office.
This "deflation rule" for off-year
elections, the council points out, would
mean loss of twenty-seven House
seats to the Republicans. AS the Re-
publicans have approximately a ma
jority of one hundred in the present
House, such loss would be far from
giving the Democrats control of the
next House of Representatives. But
even this def1ation rule has in the past
been shown to be in error from two to
sixty-five seats. 1t appears from this
study that rule of thumb methods Of
estimating the probable outcome OF
elections In this country are not very
satisfactory. Political prophets this year
will have to be guided by real study
of conditions in the country.
1lo ~.