Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-09
HOPEFUL BUSINESS
| PROSPEC! is seen
Last Quarter of Year Ex'
h' pected TO Show Turn
Is for Better.
BY JOHN r. SINCLAIR.

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BY JOHN r. SINCLAIR.
Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, September paul
Ehoup, president of the Southern Pa.
cific Co, estimates that in the territory
served by his railroad there will be al
per cent decrease, approximately, In
business during the last quarter OF 1880
in comparison with the last quarter OF
1929.
When I asked him what forces were
making for business recovery in his Sec
ton. he replied
Better feeling. capital seeking in
vestment, wearing-out processes. by
making necessary requirements OF al
supplies and machinery"
"And are there any forces holding
back business recovery at this timer"
Debts, corporate and individual, not
paid or adjusted; some overproduction
and some caution and some fear was
the cryptic answer.
Sees Upward Turn.
But Mr.. Shoup thinks that every day
now brings us nearer normal conol-
tions and that there is at the present
time very slight, but definite, upwaro
turn, although the time element Is ootn
uncontrolling and uncertain.
No one can say that this statement,
coming from one of the most response
BILE of the Western business leaders; is
anything but optimistic and hopeiul.
Necessity for Work.
But "P. c." sends me letter show
ing the other side of the picture. he
says: r.
''Wheat is falling, wages are falling,
forced sales in real estate are on the m
crease. while you quote business leadsag
&C saving that the United StaceS ID
fundamentally sound. The longer 90
called business leaders while away their
time with impairment blubberIngs, IN
stead of looking facts in the face, just
SO long will they prolong the depres--
sion in business. And the LONGER ~
lasts. the more dangerous it becomes.
Until work is available to the millions
of now unemployed, who in turn Will
receive sufficient pay to- provide both
shelter and bread, talking about better
conditions is merely tanning the Minu.
The tendency Of human nature is to
run to extremes. Once trend down
ward is established, many people believe
there is no limit to the decline. When
business turns upwards, they fnmk tne
trend always will be upward. This feel
ing is one of the causes OF business
cycles.
There are plenty of fundamental fac
tors to be put into balance before BUSH
ness becomes normal, but one of the
most important is to get the public at
titude moving in the right direction
Better Business Morale.
The Brookmire Economic Service re-
ports a much more healthy business
morale than has been evident for some
time. This condition, it says, Is shown
especially by increased steel mill opera
lions, heavier loadings of freight and
firner commodity price sterilization
during the last week of August.
From the beginning of 1922 until the
early Fall of 1929 everybody talked ex-
pansion. When the decline began. not
only in the United States. but every
where throughout the world, the pendu-
lum swung so far that everybody be-
came ''tightwad." Instead OF SPEND
ing, everybody was saving. True, the
factors making for business depression
were present, but the psychological fac
tor was the one that accelerated the
downward movement.
Improvement in steel car loadingS
and commodity prices do not show that
the turn in business has come" says
the Brookmire Service. but it is an en-
couraging sign, the first for some time.
and We are glad to be able to record
Il. We expect business TO re-
main around present low levels till
after the turn of the year. forming, q
broad U-shaped bottom. The precise
month of the turn it is idle to predict.
But we anticipate definite improvement
some time next Spring-and nothing
very substantial before then"
Debt Reduction Planned.
Secretary Mellon expects to cut about
e75,000,O00 on the public debt on Sep
TENDER Is when the new issue of 1925
OnO, 900 certificates of Indebtedness, pay
ing 23s per cent a year, are offered.
For he will retire at the same time
other Government securities, totaling
around $400. 000,0 900.
This new interest rate OF ga per
cent compares with 27s per cent on the
issue of $429, 1878 900, maturing next
June, with 3M per cent on the issue
to be retired September Is and with
31k per cent on the nearly $500, 200, 600
block due December Is.
AS banks are loaded with money,
the issue. providing certificates in iive
denominations - $500, $1,000, $1,000
$4,000 and 500 Ooo-should be over
subscribed several times.
The difference needed to take up al
Government securities due September
Is above the new 1925 900 900 issue will
come out of Federal income tax pay
ments for the third quarter, which
are due on that date.
Wheat Requirements,
Last week, when wheat at Chicago
was selling five cents cheaper thar
corn, and the lowest in Is years
Broomhall, world wheat authority, an
nounced that Europe in the present sea.
son would import 608,000,000 bushels
of wheat and -four compared with 492,.
O00, 600 a year ago and other countrie!
$4,000, 600 against IA ,000, 900 last year
He estimates that importing coun.
tries would require $4,000 900 bushels
of wheat and -four this year, or ar
increase of 10o,000,00o bushels ovel
last year.
Further, Broomhall thinks Russis
will ship 100000 bushels this year
as against nothing last year; India
$4,000, 600 bushels against nothing, ant
the Danubian countries, 44,000,00'
bushels as against nothing, while small
er countries will total 100000 agains
72,000,000 a year ago. He figures on
that the estimate of 100, 900 900 bushel
gain from the importing countries
Offset by $4,000, 600 increased shipment
from countries which exported littl
or no wheat last year.
Secretary Hyde, in his last survey
announced that the United States vii
shave need for every grain she pos
= sesses"
It looks like the wheat market /
oversold.
copyright, 1890 by North American News
paper Ailiance)
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