Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-01-05
LONDON FARLEY SEEN
AS POLITICAL CAUCUS
Conference May Bring Europe to Verge
of Crisis-Minority Governments
Fates Held Doubtful.

| must again be extended to the Amer
lean and japanese navieS.
There remains the possibility Of do
! ing something in the matter Of battle
/ ships, and here at last Is a field in
! which there is some prospect of a
successful five-power pact, for France
and Italy have abandoned the capital
ship. Nevertheless the possibilities are
limited because Secretary of State
Stinson has declared in advance that
the battleship remains the corner stone
Of American naval defense and aboli-
ton is thus out of the question.
To Postpone Replacement?
It is still possible to postpone re-
placement. In the next five years the
British and American navies are to
scrap between a third and a half of
their capital ships and replace them
To postpone replacement, extending
the life Of capital ships from 20 to IS
years, would be possible, indeed sim
pie. It would mean, in fact, a naval
holiday in battleships to counterbal-
ance the naval carnival in cruisers,
which is now ineluctable. Beyond
much doubt all five powers would sign
such pact and would doubtless also
accept the similar proposal of limiting
requirements in the future to ships of
$4,000 instead of $4,000 tons.
But even here parity propagates a
problem. The United States has not
parity with the British in capital ships,
it will only attain it in 1886. Todav The
British have 20 ships to our 10. They
also have an advantage in tonnage esti-
mated variously at from 10000 to go 900
tons. To agree to naval holiday will
amount to postponing the arrival of
parity for five years.
And it must be seen that even the
naval holiday does not actually repre-
sent the saving of money but simply the
postponement of expenditure. For five
years the United States will concentrate
upon building a huge new fleet of cruz
sers: At the end of that time it will be
ready to resume replacing it's battle
ships. Thus in the very nature of
Things the conference must be one of
armament, not Of disarmament Of con-
struction, not reduction.
Like Political Caucus.
One other aspect must be noted. The
United States Is not going to a PRAYER
meeting but to political caucus. Be
tween France and Great Britain and
between Italy and France the present
state OF feeling is very unpleasant. The
Hague events left smoldering embers
which may easily flame into a first class
Ite. Inc Macdonald government for
It's own difncult political situation. must
seek to give the impression of close and
intimate Anglo-American association
france, on her side, is bound to attempt
to establish as fact an alleged Anglo
American attempt to set up naval hege-
mony In the world and undermine the
League Of Nations. The italian maneu-
yer is to take advantage Of all opportu-
mites to strike at France and to create
the impression that France is prevent
ing disarmament.
Again, the French, British and jap
aneSe representatives at London sneak
1or minority governments at home
which might fall overnight. Insecure
domestic political situation makes for
hesltating and rigidly limited action In
foreign affairs In fact Tardieu is the
captive Of the Nationalist Right in the
french Chamber and Macdonald has to
reckon on the one hand with Tory de-
termination to support the admiralty
and on the other with the disloyalty Of
the LABOR extremists, who reject all
counsels of moderation.
In 1922 the Washington conference
mace the occupation of the Ruhr in
eVltable because it led to the overthrow
OF BRAND and the substitution of Poin-
care. That the London conference NAV
nave consequences for the Continent
only less serious Is as clearly perceived
IN Europe as 1t Is ignored In America,
Copyright, 1907