Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-01-05
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

ME year 1901 Is IL
is here in the almanac sense
and it Is here in the sense that
i 1t saturates Washington, espe-
cially Congress. Its presence
will show itself in the tariff debate. in
the vote on the tariff and in the kind of
tariff that Is written. 1t has already
shown itself in the outburst of prohibit
ton and anti-prohibition statements
during the holidays. The fact that
there is to be an election next Novem-
Der will color, in one degree or another,
Needless to add, We might get bet
ter tariff bill-and a shorter tariff de-
bate-if 1880 we're not major political
year. And needless to add, we might
get wiser action about prohibition If the
election of Senators and Representatives
were not tied up with the dry VS.. wet
question.
1880 a Major Political Year.
The year 1880 will be a major politi-
cal year, not in the sense, of course,
that President is to be elected, but in
the next most important sense-in the
sense that a complete House Of Repre-
sentativeS and one-third of the Senate
is to be elected. There will be friction
in the general election as between Dem
ocrats and Republicans in November;
but the agitation that composes the po-
litical year will begin much earlier
Many, perhaps most, of the selections
will be determined-not in the genera,
election in November, which in many
States is foregone conclusion-but ir
the primaries of the various States. Anc
the primaries. together with the ensu.
ing election. will make this a continu.
ously exciting political year and decid-
edly an important one.
These primaries begin in April In II.
linois, where, on the 9th Of that month
Senator Deneen will stand UP agains.
the first effort-I think it is the first
ever made by a woman to take a sena-
torial nomination away from a NAL,
Republican.
Several Spectacular Contests
The contest between Mrs. Ruth Han.
ma Mccormick and Senator Deneen fol
the Republican senatorial nomination
will be spectacular, and the Spectacula,
quality of that first Of the primarie,
will be duplicated in many Of those tha'
follow. In every month from April or
there will be primaries in q half dozen
more or less, States; The one in Ala
bama on May Is will be associated will
the picturesque Helm. One in June
the New Jersey one on the 18th of thai
month, will center around the interest.
ing national figure that Dwight Morrow
has become. And so on until November
What this all means is that practi.
cally from the day this article Is print.
ed. politics will be to the front. Thu
excitement attending q primary doe,
not wait, obviously, until the primary
day. In Illinois, for example, the f1ghf
between Mrs. Mccormick and Deneer
has already been under way for week
or months
To consider the political year Il
terms OF Republicans and Democrats
and IN terms of the general election ir
November, we begin, obviously, with the
Senate. One-third Of the Senate-that
Is, Sis elected every two years. Thir.
ty-two are elected, certainly and auto.
natically; in addition, deaths that may
have occurred cause the election of !
few others. In the coming November
the total number elected win be a..
Thirty-four Senators will be elected
and probably the important question
is. how many Of the "a will be Republi-
can and how many Democratic?
Breaks" Are Eccentric.
In these every other year elections BY
which the Senate is kept filled, the
breaks are eccentric. Sometimes the
breaks favor one party; sometimes the
OC44CAs AAO " A4CApd1 OIlC Oh JIlG breaks
is geographical. The geographical dis
tribution Of the vacancies that arise
automatically. If a considerable pro-
portion Of the vacancies are in the
Democratic solid South, obviously that
favors the Democrats. And 1t happens
tSat is the case this year; the geo.
graphical break favors the Democrats
slightly.
To survey the situation as a whole we
can begin the calculation by saying
that Of the "a Senate seats to be filled
next November, IS are now filled BY
Democrats and 81 by Republicans. Tc
state this same factor in another way
is to make clear one fundamental ad-
vantage the Democrats have-tht
Democrats. in order to retain their pres
ent strength need only re-elect 10; the
Republicans to retain their present DO
sition must re-elect 81. To hold 1s
seats is easier than to hold 81.
To analyze the chances more deeply
let us look first at the list of IS Demo
cratic Senators whose seats become va
cant and who come up for reelection.
COR, In the cases of a few Senators.
whose successors must be elected.)
The Is Democrats are: