Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-10-16
DEMOCRATS NEED
s. To WIN HOUSE
Election Expected to Give
Party Gains, but Extent Is
Anybody'S Guess.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

The real question and the extremely
important question in this campaign Is
whether the Democrats will gain
enough seats from the Republicans to
give them a majority in the Lower
House If that happens it will be the
first time control of the House has
changed in IL years and only the Sec
ond time in 35 years.
1t will be the only time the Demo-
Gratis have taken control away from
the Republicans since 1910. Conse-
quences of change of control of the
House are only short Of consequences
of change of parties in the prest-
dency. Every change of control OF
Congress in 40 years has been followed,
for example, by reversal of tariff
policy.
Democrats Need So Seats.
"Change of control of the House" Is
an abstract phrase. Concretely, it con-
sists of the winning or losing of a mini
mum of So separate congressional cleo
tons scattered over the country. No
one of these elections is sufficiently
conspicuous nationally to catch the at
tention of the country as whole. The
men now holding the doubtful seats are
comparatively obscure local Representa-
control or the Republicans keep 1t de-
ponds on the aggregate of So or more
local elections Ringing mainly on local
issues and the personalities of local cam
didates.
The writer has seen reports covering
all the districts that are in doubt be-
tween the parties. The number Of
doubtful district is about 90. One can
picture the situation by saying that
there are roughly some 80 seats now
held by Republicans which have been
held by Democrats at one time or an
other in recent years. The picture can
be expressed another way by saying
there are nearly 80 seats which in one
been carried by majorities of less
than 1000.
Doubtful Districts Listed.
The present problem is whether in
these 80 or 30 doubtful districts the
Democrats can win the minimum of
SO, which, added to their present
strength, would give them a bare
majority. Advance judgment as to the
probable answer is extremely difficult
The doubtful districts are strewn
throughout the States of Massachusetts,
New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Maryland, virginia, North Carolina,
West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana,
Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma
and SO on to the Pacific Coast.
No one political leader or observer
can inspect all these districts on the
ground. Summation of Judgment must
come through inspecting the aggregate
Of reports from separate districts. Even
greater than this geographical impede.
ment to judgment is the diversity of
issues and local conditions From in
specting reports from the doubtful dis
tricts, the strongest impression is the
extent to which the results will be de-
termined by local conditions.
Report after report completely omits
any allusion to prosperity, or the tariff,
or prohibition, or any other national
issue A majority of the reports say
that the local outcome will be influenced
by the personal popularity of the candi-
date, or the energy of some one leader,
or by a disappointed aspirant for
post Office, or local leader of the ex-
soldiers, who in some districts are for
the Republican candidate and in some
for the Democratic; or a local labor
group, or the local drys or the local
vets. One is obliged to deduce that
the influences determining these cleo
tons are almost wholly local.
Perhaps one out of four reports makes
illusions to national issues or condi-
tons from which few congratulations