Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-01-26
OUTPUT INCREASE
SEEN BY ERSKINE
Predicts 5000, 900 Cars a
Year viii Be Average for
Next Decade.

An average annual output of 5000 900
or more automobiles of all classes in
the new decennial period of the auto
motive industries which is inaugurated
by the automobile show of 1880 is seen
by A. r. Erskine, president of the
Studebaker Corporation. Pointing out
that this Is the beginning of the fourth
decade in which the automobile has
been an article of commerce rather
than of sporadic experiment, Mr..
Erskine said that industrial adulthood
has been attained. and the production
Of automobiles will from now on con-
form to a more dependable demand
from year to year.
Growth will sustain more definite
relation to the progress of the Nation
at large and therefore 1t is reasonable
to believe that the output Of cars for
the first ear of the new decade will
not be less than rs or 80 per cent OF
the annual .erage which will be
chalked up for the entire 10 years.
This makes the probable production of
1890 around 1000, 900, according to his
calculations.
1.-THE automobile industries have be-
come so completely integrated with the
economic and social life of the Nation
that their annual production will here
after sustain definite mathematical
relations to the growth of the popula-
ton. wealth and income in the United
States and to the volume of industrial
and commercial activity throughout the
world" he says.
Cars Last Seven Years.
Calling attention to the fact that
the National Automobile Chamber of
Commerce now reckons the average
effective life of an automobile at less
than seven wears, under modern con-
ditions of intensive and continuous use,
and noting that the automobile Is no
longer an experiment or a sporting
proposition, but a standard tool of COM
merce and family fixture comparable
to house or an apartment, Mr.. Erskine
deduceS that the number of cars
theoretically necessary to replace those
worn out must soon approach the
average annual production OF the last
seven years. That is the period in
which the use of an automobile attain
ed practical universally in America, as
1t became a necessity in the new type
Of civilized living attained by the Amer
lean people.
This points to an annual replacement
demand of over $3.50, 900 cars, he says.
Annual replacement sales topped 2,450,-
900 in 1928.
eApOTJ o. OUU,UUU Is now
an accomplished fact Every indication
points to rapid growth of this market.
as the living standards and industrial
and agricultural output Of the greater
part o: the world are now on the up
grade.
Sees Gain in Export Sales.
Mr. Erskine expressed the opinion
that the export of automobiles from the
United States might eventua''v amount
to 40 per cent of domestic sales, but,
disregarding any prospects of export
increase, he points out that the COM
bined annual replacement and export
demand for automobiles is now rapidly
approaching a theoretical minimum Of
$3.50 900 cars per year.
The sale of cars to new owners and
20 multiple car owners was only 1926
OFT in 1928, Mr.. ErSkine notes. With
respect to that figure, he says that
100000 young men come of age in the
United States every year.
Over 20 per cent of these young men
are married at the end of their twenty
first year and more than half are mar
ried at e.
with the automobile a family fix
ture, and I need hardly add a highly
necessary adjunct to modern court
ship, it is quite evident that population
increase and the founding of families
alone assures the American automotive
industry every year of 1000, 900 pros
pective cuStomerS-or at any rate
100000 men who want to buy cars,
or with wives who want them to buy, -
says Mr.. Erskine.