Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-28
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

be senSational-So sensational that the
biggest headlines In every newspaper
office would be brought forth to au-
nounce 1t.
The event would be sensational in
itself, because of the implications about
legislation and the speculations about
such a tide going on to elect Demo
cratic President in 1882. The news
would have an added quality of sensa-
ton because of its unexpected ness-for
the anticipation now is that the Demo-
Gratis will not win control of either
Senate or House.
That this is the present consensus
there can hardly be any mistaking. If
the Democrats should win on November
commentators Of the day afterward,
as well as the historians of years later,
can truthfully say that five weeks pre-
ceding the election the outcome was
not anticipated.
It may be boring to go back to the
Maine result and it Is inaccurate to re-
gard Maine as a barometer in years
like the present Yet Maine is the only
omen we have; Maine is the one State
that holds its election in early Septem-
Der, nearly two months ahead of the
others. OF the Maine result this year
it can at least be said that 1t is in
conceivable Maine would have gone
the way it did go the early part Of this
month If there had been, throughout
the country as a whole, any such
ground swell as would be necessary to
give the Democrats control Of Congress
in November.
Democrats Talk Of 1910.
When Democrats express hopes of
gaining control of Congress. they talk
always in terms OF duplication OF
what happened in 1910. 1.-The 1910
parallel" or, as it is otherwise phrased,
1.-The Taft parallel in 1910,". is con-
stantly cited by the Democrats as rea-
son for belief that they will gain con-
troll of at least one chamber Of Con-
gress in November.
The 1910 parallel to the present year
AS the Democrats trace it--runs as
follows:
I'm 1910 a Republican. William H
Taft, was President, serving his first
term; in 1880 a Republican, Herbert
Hoover, is President, serving his first
term. In 1910 Taft had called spe-
cial session of Congress to enact a
tariff law; in 1890 President Hoover
had called special session of Congress
to enact a. tariff law. In 1910, in the
won control of the House; in 1880, in
the congressional elections, the Demo-
Gratis will win control of the House. "
That is the parallel as the Democrats
put it. But all of US, in constructing
parallels, or otherwise arguing from
precedent. commonly choose only those
conditions that point the way we want
them to point. So the Democrats, In
constructing this parallel between 1910
and 1880, omit one vital condition. II
the Republicans were stating this con-
/ ~ - ~
of mind, they would put it thus:
I'm 1910 there was Theodore Roose-
welt: In 1880 there is no Theodore
Roosevelt"
Roosevelt Effect Great.
without any doubt the mere presence
upon this earth of Theodore Roosevelt
made the year 1910 politically different
from the year 1880. More than any
other one factor the existence of Theo-
dore Roosevelt accounted for the Demo-
Gratis winning the House Cor, to put 1t
the other way, for the Republicans losing
the House,.
It is true Roosevelt's historic quarrel
with Taft had not begun at the time
of the 1910 congressional electionS--or,
more accurately, it had not come into
the open; that was for two years later.
But there was in 1910 in the Republic
can party Taft faction and a Roose-
welt faction. Straight down through
the party from top to bottom, through
Republican Senators, Republican mem
bers of the House, Republican Govern
ors, Republican members of State LegiS-
latureS, Republican local party officials
through every stratum of the party
ran the cleavage between Taft men and
Roosevelt men. Each of the two groups
was determined to get control of the
party. In nearly every little election
precinct, especially in such States as
Indiana, there was q Taft Republican
and a Roosevelt Republican lighting to
get control of the machinery, which two
years later would be potent in deter
mining the presidential nomination.
1t was this Nationwide quarrel and
these little local quarrels between Taft
Republicans and Roosevelt Republicans
that more than any other one condi-
ton caused the Republicans to lose
control Of the House in 1910. Stated
in the aggregate, it was the old story:
Two factions fought fer a prize; both
lost it. It went to the outsider.
That was the condition in 1910.
There is no parallel to it today. There
Is no Theodore Roosevelt. There is,
therefore, no true parallel to 1910.
Democratic Gain Conceded.
To go back to Maine. Maine in 1910
elected a Democratic Governor, elected
two out of Names four Representatives
In the House and almost elected the
other two. Those results of the Maine
election in September, 1910, were a suffi-
Gent portent of what was destined to
occur in November, 1910. This year,
in the Maine election few weeks ago,
the Republicans elected their Governor
comfortably, elected their Senator COM
fortably and elected all four Repre-
sentatives in Congress comfortably.
And Maine having done this, it is prac-
ttcally inconceivable that there should
be IN the country this year any such
ground swell as would give to the Demo-
Gratis In November control of either the
Senate or the House.
While this is, so to speak, the in
evitable deduction from every major
sign that we can recognize, there is
no doubt whatever that the Democrats
Will make gains in both House and
Senate. They will probably make quite
considerable gains. And in such a
situation, where there Is a clear
momentum in one direction, there is
always the possibility Of such q mo-
mentum sweeping little farther than
any one anticipates.
Democrats Need IL Seats.
If we dismiss everything about pro-
gressive Republicans or Farmer-Labor-
ties, If We look upon the Senate as
composed wholly and only of straight
Republicans and straight Democrats,
there are in the Senate 56 Republicans
and 40 Democrats (the 40 Democrats
including l Farmer-Labor, Shipstead of
Minnesota).
In the Senate it requires 80 to make
q majority. If there is a tie, 90 to IS,
the Republican Vice President COM
monty casts his vote so as to give a
Republican majority.)
The question. therefore. is. can the