Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-04
DEMOCRATS LIKELY
TOLACK CONTROL
National Mood Seems to Ban
Landslide -Voters Real
ize Conditions.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

If the writer Of this dispatch were
asked to give In terms Of actual figures.
an estimate of the outcome Of todays
election, the writer would be very UNI
happy. for 1t is the NEST difficult to
estimate in his experience. II the cross
examiners should, TO use Western .po-
litical phrase borrowed from indian
warfare, hold his feet to the fire" long
enough, the writer would estimate that
as to the Senate the Democrats Will
make net gain of 6 seats, giving them
Is cut of the SO and therefore less
than a ajority. As to the House, the
estimate would be that the Democrats
will make net gain OF not more than
81 seats, which. is Is less than the 53
which they must win in order to have
majority.
The present House, allowing for va
cancies, has 269 Republicans, 1o6 Demo-
Gratis and Farmer-Labor. The Kspuo-
licans have, therefore, a majority oil
los. The Democrats, therefore, in order
to achieve bare majority, must today
make a net gain of SIS seats from the
Republicans. The estimate here mace
Is that they will gain no: more than 81.
Landslide Discounted.
This estimate does not vary mate
rally from the estimates made by most
washington and other newspapers who
have made nationwide surveys. To this
statement there is an important quail
flcation. Practically every one of these
correspondents mentions the possibility
of a Democratic landslide" Practically
all say it is only by landslide that
the Democrats can gain actual control
of the House. If there should be a
Democratic landslide at ALL it would
give them perhaps gain of 80 or more
seats instead of the 81 here predicted.
The question therefore comes down to
whether a Democratic landslide is I'M
der way. Landslides sometimes happen,
are possible at time of depression such
as the present, and are difficult to de-
tect in advance. The reason for the
difficulty Of detecting landslide is that
1t arises from Nationwide common
mood in the people. The mood of the
people is at all times difficult thing to
assay. The statement is here ventured,
based on considerable information, that
the present mood of the country Is not
one which would express itself in land
slide of votes against the party in power
and in favor of the Democrats.
People DisiIlusiOned.
Dependable information says that
many people are depressed, sad, un-
happy, even discouraged. These reports
say, however, that the national mood
stops far short of anger or sullenness.
Voters are aware that the depression is
worldwide and they do not blame 1t on
the national administration. On the
contrary, with fine consideration and
patience. they think of President Hoo
yer as having the same sor. of trouble
as themselves with the difference that
IN his case the responsibilities and difii-
culties are infinitely more burdensome
than their own
Practically all the best reports say the
people are not in the sort of emotion
IN which they would Of their own In
ttative go to the polls in order to ex-
press their feelings by vote against
the party in power. Their mood in
cluues establishment about all poll
tics and all parties, conviction that do
party and no act of politics Is able
wholly to rescue them from the business
depression. They are not susceptible to
the argument that their lot would nee
essarily be improved by putting the
Democrats in power.
Many to Stay Home.
Such mood does not give rise to
national landslide. In manyacases It Is
es likely as not TO express itself by in
0lnerence about politics and by re-
training from voting. In such a stu
alton, there is considerable adyan-
tage on the side of the party that has
the best organization for getting out
the vote, the party that has in each
precinct workers familiar with the
preferences Of the voters and equipped
20 get its own partisans to the polls.
the TACT Is that as q Nation wide mat
ger 1t IS the Republicans who have the
best precinct by precinct organization
Of this kind.
In qualification of what is here said.
Y Is true that locally in several States
there are local issues or conditions of
2 sort likely to bring out an exceptional
Democratic vote.
There Is one additional condition
arguing against landslide. A land
slide is Nationwide mass movement.
This election, as matter of fact Is to
Q unique degree not Nation wide con-
centration on national issues ON the
contrary, It is the aggregate, the net,
OF many separate elections turning on
separate or local issues and on the per-
sonalittes Of local candidates. -
Copyright. 1900