New Britain herald., 1930-08-19
CORRECT PROPHECY
 BY MATHEMATICIAN
Center Of Population About
 Where Forecast in 1872

Washington. Aug. 19 tPl - A prophecy made 5S years ago con- corning the spot at which the 1880 center of population of the United States would be found was pointed to today by Clarence E. Batschelet, census geographer, as the most ac- curate estimate available at this stage of the computations.
 Undertaking, on the basis of an- try, 10 trace the movement Of that mythical balance point from its 1920 resting place, Batschelet said at this point of the calculations he could not improve on the old figure.
 In 1872, he said. a brilliant but little known mathematician, Julius Erasmus Hilgard. estimated the center of population would cling close to the 39th parallel Of alti- tude. and would move 126 miles westward between 1870 and 1900 and an added SS miles between 1900 and 1880.
 Near St. Louis Eventually
 Hilgard further prophesied that this Hypothetical point will be about 30 miles east of St. Louis in the year 2000. This, he forecast, would be just about it's ultimate and the country could thereafter be de- pended on to maintain an approxi nation Of equilibrium, with St. Louis as pivotal point.
 In the 1872 population prophecy, published in Scribner's Monthly, Hilgard made the first reliable com- putation of the center of popula- ton of the United States. The cen sus bureau followed two years later with official computations for all census years up to that time and each succeeding census has been tabulated as to population center with scientific accuracy.
 From 1870 to 1900. the period in which Hilgard said the population center would advance 126 miles, he missed it by but 6.5 miles-it moved 1195.
 Two Abnormal Decades
 He based his prophecy not on the statistics on hand, but on a mathe- nautical system he evolved. He fig ured actual advances from 184o to 1870. Two out of three of these decades he branded as mot nor mal," for the first represented the gold rush to California and the third the life loss of the civil war. He said it was safe to assume that disturbing causes of such magni- tude cannot occur again. History has proved him correct to date.
 Hilgard then argued in this fash ion: The geographical center of the United States now is just below the middle of the northern boundary Of Kansas. Owing to the comparative infertility of the territory lying vest of that meridian, it is certain the center of population. when a perma- nent ratio of distribution shall have been reached, cannot be far west of the Mississippi river" And. since there is no great disparity of north ern and southern zones it will be near the middle latitude of 59 de- grees, placing it not far from the city of St. Louis.
 He then took a tentative point near St. Louis as ultimate and moved the center of gravity toward it at a rate based on the movement in a decade he considered normal.
 The actual distance moved from 1900 to 1920 was 49 miles, leaving 31 to go in the present census bu- reau calculations. Until complete check is made, the bureau experts are content to let this estimate stand as probably within few miles. possibly five or six, of cor rectness.