The producers news. [volume] (Plentywood, Mont.) 1918-1937, 1930-03-14
SOVIET FACES
GRAVE PROBLEM
In GRAIN CROP
Nation in Midst of Far-Reachmg
Agricultural Revolution. Change
from Small to Large Farms
Leaves Production Figures In
Doubt.
BY EUGENE LYONS

By EUGENE LYONS
United Press Staff Correspondent
Moscow, March 12.-UP-The
Soviet Union never in its Ii years
of existence faced a year in which
its grain prospects and the farm
ing outlook in general were more
obscure and problematical.
The nation is in the midst of
far-reaching agricultural revolu-
ton and it is literally impossible
to predict with any degree of GER
titude how that revolution will af-
feet production.
From the basis of small indi- |
vidual households, over % millions
of them, each working its small
allotment of land usually with OLD
fashioned tools and methods, the
farming of the vast Soviet Union
is being quickly transferred to a
basis of large communal estates,
working large areas and wherever
possible with modern machinery.
The process of change has al
ready gone far. BY February 1st,
according to official statistics, s.
100000 Individual farmsteads have
been merged into collectives. By
the end of September it is expect
ed that fully half the grain grow
ing area will be on a collective
basis.
Will the change bring the in
crease in production promised by
Soviet leaders? Will it, on the
contrary, cause a temporary de-
cline? Optimistic predictions can
be cited, but they are always made
for political purposes and cannot
stand a scientific test. The pessi-
mistic forecasts, similarly, com"
chiefly from circles opposed to the
whole collectivization idea and
must be discounted for that rea-
son.
Without venturing a forecast,
however, it is possible to summar-
ize certain known indications:
The area under winter paintings
is Az per cent larger than last
year. The winter crop is less i'm
portant than the spring-sown crop
The autumn and early winter
weather so far has not been en-
tirely satisfactory. An INSULT
cheney of snow made the first
frosts dangerous for the seeds
Nevertheless an average winter
crop is expected.
The official program for the
spring paintings calls for an L
per cent expansion of the tota
sown area, and a 20 per cent in
crease in the acreage under wheat
If this program is carried out
it will give Russia not only sur
cease from its perennial breaC
problem, but very likely some ex
portable surplus. The outlook 70
its achievement is not at this mo
ment especially brilliant, bu
knowing the energy and resource
fitness of the highly centralize
Soviet government, it would b
too early to make predictions O.
the basis of present difficulties.
Heretofore the upper layer o
better-to-do peasants, the kulak!
constituted an important factor i
the production of grain. A deli
crate effort to crush this class
under way now, so that it must b
eliminated as a source of market
able grain. The country must loo
to the newly-formed collective
not only to increase the produt
tivity of their own members bJ
to make up the margin wiped OF
with the suppression of the kI
laks.
Can they perform this task?
they possessed machinery-and o.
iginally the whole collective ide
was predicated upon the use {
machinery-there would be lit
hesitation in answering the que
ton affirmatively. The cole
tiveS, it happens, have multiple
so fast that the government ca
, not supply tractors and other mo
ern machines to a quarter of thel
, if that many. 1t must fall bai
upon horses and oxen to make |
the wide difference. Even
: those the supply seems inadequat
Tens of thousands of peasants, b
fore merging their property wi
that of their neighbors in social
! tic commmes, decided to dispo
: of their livestock. The slaught
of horses and cattle has been e
ormous and affects the plans f
! spring planting.
: Moreover, the press recent
: raised a loud alarm over the ia
g that the collection of seeds for t
. new communes was not procee
! ing well. Early in February le
: than 25 per cent of the necessa
: seeds had been gathered, althou
= the plans called for the emit
= campaign to be ended by the mi
> die of February. True, the pre-
. is likely to exaggerate its alarl
: with view to stimulating the :
tivities of local officials. Yet |
figures were too gloomy to all
4 of such explanation.
4 But despite the unfavorable
: mediate situation, the strong m,
n sures of the Kremlin may turn |
: scale before the actual sprj
paintings begin.