Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-24
BY FRANK H. s.MoNDs.


T%HE other day at the williams
town Conference q British pro-
fessor indicated In words that
Il startled not few Of his hearers
his own view that Europe was
steadily and consistently preparing for
D new war, which he explained was ex-
pected somewhere between 1885 and
1910. This statement, unfamiliar as 1t
Is perhaps on our side Of the water, has
been a matter Of common comment all
ever Europe.
In point Of fact, the prophecy has
generally been voiced In far more spe-
cff1c terms. "A new war In 1895" has
been the usual version. In this shape
the forecast recalls the now forgotten
pre-war warning. Then the year Of dis
aster was ordinarily set for 1916, with
the added phrase "or when Russia COM
pletes the reorganization Of her army
and the building of the strategic rail-
ways on the German and Austrian
frontiers"
Today the prophecy for 1885 is based
upon several circumstances. In the
11rst place, there has been q natural
consideration Of the date fixed for the
final evacuation of the occupied areas
of the Rhineland. Obviously, Germany
would not recover her freedom Of &C.
tion until this time. And all forecasts
naturally pay much attention to Ger
many. In so far as the new war might
result from German decision to upset
the treaty Of Versailles by violence and
undertake to remake her eastern from
tiers by reconquering the Polish Cor
ridor and Upper Silesia, it has been
plain that German action must wait
upon the moment when French troops
were at last gone from German soil to
avoid making Germany the battle
ground, as France was In 19l4-1S.
Second Factor Reckoned.
A second factor has similarly been
reckoned In fixing the date at 1885.
Beginning with 1915, the effect of the
war was enormously to lower the birth
rate OF all combatant countries, and the
particular victim was France, already
possessing the lowest birthrate OF all the
great powers. Instead of 100000 re-
approximately the annual French con-
tingent, the number Of boys reaching
the age Of 20 In 1885 win hardly exceed
1000 and for the next I'VE years the
numbers will not increase.
During these five years, then, France
VIII be at her weakest. In the face of
Italy her disadvantage win be most
alarming. for Italy did not enter the
war until year after France and her
.
1850, 900 for France. Possessing a
vastly higher birthrate, Italy will then
call to the colors In these critical years
not less than twice as many recruits rs
France, II she employs her full strength.
And 1t Is precisely between France and
Italy that the danger Of conflict has in
recent times seemed most acute.
France, with her allies, notably Jugo-
isssviess Pcasr,d when ai suifered Slm Vs.
equally: Rumania, which. like Serbia,
was long in the enemys hand, win be
ct the low point exactly ct the date
when the possibility Of q new conflict
Is generally recognized. And indeed it
Is this French weakness which has been
the basis for not few Of the alarming
prophecies.
The danger is increased by the fact
that France has since the war reduced
the term of service for cCnscripts from
three years to one, and no government
win dare now to impose twice as long
o term Of service, In view OF the In
evitable political consequences.
It Is this circumstance, too, which ex-
plains the opposition In France, such
o there was, to the early evacuation
OF the Rhineland. Not . few French
men. backed by q considerable press,
argued that France should stay in
Mainz until 1885, thus denying to Ger
many the opportunity to prepare in ad-
vance for campaign In 1885. II the
French troops did not retire until 1885,
It was urged, 1t would take Germany
most Of the i've dangerous years to
prepare any new campaign.
Italy Seems Dangerous Neighbor.
But the French troops have now
gone, the Rhineland Is bare of allied
garrisons and, what Is most disturbing
In French quarters, the fertilization Of
the French frontiers has only just begun
and cannot be completed during the
next i've years. Moreover, fertilization
on the eastern frontier Is bound to be
delayed by the present need to build
Yamparts on the italian boundary.