Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-04
CONTROL OF HOUSE
! AIM Of DEMOCRATS
Many PrecedentS Have Been
Set for 0ff-Year Election
LandSIides.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

The struggle between Democrats and
Republicans for control of the next
Congress is still, so to speak, in the
stage in which the contenders are being
chosen by the two parties. 1t is yet
in the stage of party primaries. In l6
States the primaries have been held
and ting candidates of the two parties
have been chosen. In 20 States yet TO
hold primaries and 6 that make their
nominations through conventions the
political year continues in the stage in
which members of each party contend
within the party for nominations.
In this status. and with little over
three months remaining until the gen.
eral election, the national organizations
of the two parties are gathering mo-
mentum for the Nationwide contest in
November. The prize consists Of con-
troll of the House of Representatives.
Practically nobody expects that the net
outcome of the senatorial elections will
give a majority of that body to the
Democrats. 1t is in terms of control Of
the House of Representatives that the
struggle must be seen. The Repub-
leans now hold 27o seats, making a
slight adjustment for vacancies, and
the Democrats 165. The Democrats.
therefore, in order to win even bare
control of the House must take ,54 seats
away from the Republicans.
switch of 81 seats in a single
election would be a very large over
turn. 1t would be called a landslide
At the same time, there are precedents
for a switch of this size. In the past
20 years there have been five off
year" elections such as this years is. BY
al Sz n,zt oil
between presidential elections.
Majority Usually Loses.
In 1910. midway of Republican Presi-
dent Taft's administration, the Republic
cans lost 81 members of the House.
In 1914, midway of Democratic Presi-
dent Wilson's first administration, the
Democrats, then in power, lost 81 seats.
In 1918, midway of Presidents Wilson's
second administration, the Democrats,
still in power up to that time, lost 19
members of the House. In 1922, mid
way of President Harding's term, the
Republicans lost II members of the
House, though they still retained
q majority. In 1926, midway of Presi-
dent Coolidge's administration, the Re-
publicans lost 9 seats in the House.
We are now to see what will happen
midway of President Hoover's admin
lose some seats goes without saying
AS the figures above show, the party in
power always loses some seats in the
mid-term election.
The idea that the Democrats may
be the benehciaries of a huge landslide
in November arose chiefly from a single
event. Early last February there was
q vacancy caused by death in the Sec
ond Massachusetts, district, which is
&l@A Of
For more than 80 years without inter
ruption the district had sent Repub-
hcan to Congress. In the February
election, however, Democrat won by
o plurality of roughly $500.
The event was so sensational, and
the association of the district with
ex-President Coolidge so striking as to
be accepted as an omen. mo Repub-
lican seat in Congress is safe" said
the Boston Post, IF this sweeping
Democratic victory is any guide in the
Fall campaign" Even the Republican
Boston Herald called it "a political
Largely Local Situation.
Many mistakes are caused by making
too large generalizations from INSULT
Gent experience. To argue that be-
cause the party in power lost one seat
m MASSACHUSETTS IN FeDruary, II Will
therefore lose 81 throughout the coun-
try in November, runs risk of fallacy.
It is now known that the sensational
Democratic victory in one Massachu-
sets district last February was ac-
counted for largely by local conditions
including a peculiar lineup of the
candidates on prohibition. 1t is doubt
full if in Massachusetts today any well
informed politician of either party
would make a bet, if the bet were
secret, that the Democrats will carry
this district again in November.
Last February, the expectation was
general that the Democrats would make
large gains in November throughout
Massachusetts. They may do so, but
Democratic leaders with the best of
Information and Judgment say that the
Democrats of Massachusetts are in
volved in dangerous internal cleavages.
Partly because of the whetting of their
appetites by the local success last
February, they have fallen into contro-
versy among themselves about the very
nominations which at that time seemed
to promise victories.
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