Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-14
PRESIDENCY MAY HINGE
ON NOVEMBER ELECTIONS
Democratic Control of Congress Would
Stir Exciting Interest Due to Prece-
dents of Last 40 Years.

rouse, we were In the Tn1QSL OF prOp~
ably the most cyclonic panic and the
try has ever seen. That fact alone
would have been enough to account
both for the Republicans winning con-
troll of the House in 1894 and for their
winning the presidency In 1896. In
addition, there was another condition.
Not only did the Democrats suffer from
the fact of a panic and depression;
further than that, control of the DEM
ocratic party, through a fight within
the party, was won away from the con-
sentative and orthodox Democrats by
William Jennings Bryon advocating the
| free coinage Of silver. That fact, the
cleavage within the Democratic party.
was almost enough to account for the
margin by which they lost the presi-
dency in 1896. Even so, the margin by
which the Democrats lost and the Re-
publicans won the presidency in 1896
was very Small-50,000 votes properly
distributed throughout the States would
have resulted in the election of Bryan.
Victory Follows Control.
To consider the next of the Drece-
dents, the Democrats In 1910 won con-
troll of the House and then two years
later, in 1912, won the presidency. But
in that 1919 election for the presidency
the Republican party was split in two.
The smaller wing of the Republicans
remained under the then President
Taft, while the larger wing went on
under the leadership Of Roosevelt 70
any one say that If there had not been
that split in the Republican party the
Democrats would have elected Wilson
in 1912? To put it in broader terms
applicable to the present, can any one
say with confidence that the winning
of control of the House by the Repub-
licans in 1910 was certain to be fol-
lowed in 1912 by their winning the
presidency?
The net of all this Is: Precedents
say that If the Democrats should win
control Of the House this November
they would then unSeat President
Hoover and elect a President Of their
own party in 1882. But in spite Of the
presidents there are conditions which
suggest caution about accepting the
deduction from precedent It is enough
to say, however, that the deduction
would be widely accepted II the morn
ing papers of November next should
record the winning of control OF the
House by the Democrats. There would
be q very general assumption that the
country was headed straight for
Democratic President in 1882.
Because Of what has already been de-
Scribed there is another-what shall we
call it, prediction, or idea, or notion?
The notion is that If the Democrats
should.w win control Of the House Novenl-
Der next the Republicans would not
| then renorninate Mr.. Hoover. This
| theory Is directly related to the former
| one. The argument runs thus: II the
Democrats should win control OF the
House next November 1t would mean
| that the country is dissatisfied with
| the Republicans and with the Republi-
can President. That being SO, thus
runs the argument, the Particular Re-
publican President now in ONCE should
licans should make their bid for the
presidency in 1882 with another leader.
This argument, that If the Republic
| cans should lose control OF the House IN
November they would thereafter deny
denomination to Mr.. Hoover, Is taila-
cious. However convincing precedents
may be on the larger point described
above there is no aggregation OF prece.
dents to suggest that Mi. Hoover would
be denied q denomination In 1892.
Third Term Question.
1t is true that in the first precedent
described above President Cleveland,
after his party lost control Of the House,
was not renominated, but that was for
| the very good reason that Mr.. Cleve-
land had already served two terTas. IN
the second precedent, described above,
Republican President Taft saw his party
lose control of the House in 1910, but
nevertheless was himself renominated
| in 1912. (Though the denomination did
him little good, because the bulk OF his
party went OF to follow RooSevelt.) In
the third of the three precedentS since
| 1890 President Wilson in 1918 saw MS
party lose control of the House and was
not himself renominated in 1920, but.
again, as in the case of Cleveland, this
was for the very good reason that VIII
son had already served two terms ana
also was in extremely and obvious bad
health. Any one who remembers the
conditions of 1920 knows well that II
Mr.. Wilson had not already served two
terms and If he had not suffered his
breakdown in health he would have
been renominated by the Democrats.
Consequently there is nothing in the
precedents to suggest that II the Repub-
licans- should lose control of the House
in November they would then deny re-
nomination to Mr.. Hoover In 1882. On
the contrary, the precedents, as far as
they suggest anything, point the other
way.
Common sense, the average mans I'M
Outstanding of how other average men
act, is enough to suggest that even II
the Republicans should lose control OF
the House in November, nevertheless
Mr., Hoover would be renominated In
1882. The argument from common
sense has been put in words attri uteo
to that master exponent OF common
sense. Calvin Coolidge. This story,
which purports to quote Mr.. Coolidge,
may or may not be true. 1t may be
one of those stories that are like artists
neutrality-suspicious. even more true
to life than a photograph. The story,
in short, attributes to Mr.. Coolidge the
kind of practical wisdom that every
body knows Mr.. Coolidge has. With
this explanation, the story runs TO the
effect that distinguished Senator spoke
to Mr.. Coolidge about the possibility OF
his (Mr. Coolidge) being nominated by
the Republicans In 1882. According 70
the story, Mr. Coolidge replied that the
Republican nominee In 1882 would be
Mr.. Hoover. According to the words
put into Mr. Coolidge's mouth. II the
Republican nomination in 1882 IS worth
ANYTHING, Mr.. Hoover deserves 1t, ana II
it Is not worth anything-h the condt-
tiore are such that the Democrats are
extremely likely to win--in that event
nobody other than VT. Hoover will want
the nomination.
Certainty Of Nomination.
The same idea has been put into DIFF
ferent words by another adept in COM
pact phraseology, who shall be name
less here: IF the Republican nomina-
&c. a. 1oQO is wrrfl1 anvtbin0 Mr.