Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-04-20
PACT RATIFICATION
BY u. S. FORECAST
Treaty Interpreted as Assur-
Ing Better Balanced Navy
for America.
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theoretical for there is no reason to
assume that Great Britain, Japan or
even the United States would have been
willing, without real emergency, to
build new capital ships at such ex-
pense that other categories of the feet
must have necessarily suffered.
The fact seems to be that under the
treaty figures Great Britain must near
ly double its present replacement and
new construction budget, the United
States must nearly triple, and Japan
can continue at about the present level.
France can carry ut its present build
ing program without increasing its
naval budget, but Italy, to reach parity
with France, would be obliged to more
than double, its present financial eff
fort.
2. Naval. Great Britain under the
treaty somewhat reduces its fleet, Japan
stabilizes at about its present strength,
and the United States plans to build
up to parity with Great Britain
France and italy keep free hand.
They will be asked to slow up building
so that Great Britain will not be
obliged to invoke the escape clause in
a year or two and, under the two
power standard on which the British
admirably insists, to build more
destroyers and cruisers than the treaty
provides for Whether they will really
slow up or whether they will accentuate
their present naval race remains to
be seen.
France apparently plans to keep the
three-two ratio to Italy, whatever the
latter builds, while Italy is equally in
sistent on parity with France. In any
case, whatever France and Italy de-
eide, Great Britain will be affected, and
through Great Britain We and the
Japanese. Thus, paradoxically, it ap-
pears that the size of our Navy depends
In the last analysis on the Mediter-
differences do not directly concern us
such is the essential unity of the
modern world.
Still Consider Battleships.
Technically the trend of the confer
ence is toward a new type of navies
of small units, and more of them, with
plenty of submarines and especially
airplanes The United States. which
is the last power to cling to battleships,
has agreed not to replace them before
! 1896. while holding open the question
whether they should then be decreased
in size or abolished altogether.
The chances are that the eight-inch
cruisers will be the capital ship of the
future, supplemented by new type of
large six-inch cruiser which we seem
to be preparing to inaugurate. De-
stroyer fleets will be proportioned to
submarine fleets, which Great Britain,
the United States and Japan are main
tanning at a level large enough for
defense, but not sufficient for long dis
lance offense.
France apparently intends to retain
its pre-eminence in submarines, though
some French experts are beginning to
think IN terms of more airplaneS and
fewer submarines. In any case, the
British effort to abolish submarines has
failed completely for the present.
8. Political The main political
question of the conference was to what
extent the Rapidan meeting meant an
Anglo-Ameri entente, or even an ,un-
ion of Anglo-Saxon peoples to keep the
peace" for the rest of the world. Un-
doubtedly some British leaders, even
some Americans. hoped that there would
be such an entente. But when the
American delegation realized the sit
uation, it fastened to do everything in
its power to prove to the other nations
that the United States contemplates no
such ENHANCEMENT.
Our delegates then urged the British
to try every reasonable means to reach
an agreement with the French and
when this failed, we went so far as to
make our spectacular tentative offer
of a consultative pact, which, without
binding us in any respect, was equiVa-
lent to assuring the Europeans that we
are not trying to draw Great Britain
out of Europe and smash the League OF
Nations.
Demonstrate Interest.
It was largely owing to this offer on
our part, with corresponding lesson
to Great Britain on one hand, and
France and Italy on the other, that the
conference in failing to achieve five
power treaty nevertheless ended in a
better political atmosphere than would
otherwise have been possible.
, We have made it clear that We have
an interest now, even If only an indirect
interest, in the future of Franco British
and Franco italian relations, on which
the size of our own Navy must ulti-
mately be regulated. This fact, it Is
felt, will exercise. harmonizing in
fuence on all concerned and will facili-
tate ultimate agreements.
There is not the slightest doubt that
our diplomacy will watch with the
great care the Geneva negotiations in
which France and Great Britain will
again discuss security, as well as the
Franco-Italian negotiations on which
the ultimate size of the French and
Italian navies will depend.