Brownsville herald. [volume] (Brownsville, Tex.) 1910-current, 1930-11-16
IN DUR
VALLEY
By c. NJ. HALL

business slump, what IL Is, WHEN TIE
Inward trend will start. how far
the pendulum will swing back and
how prices will follow business, that
some OF il seems contradictory, and
some blatant attempts 10 boost by
picturing a flowery condition just
around the corner. Past experience
of both grower and business men
now causes many 70 wonder what
to buy and how much.
From all the advice comes the
concensus Of opinion from those
supposedly in a position 10 be able
tn know how TO predict that the
upward trend In business will be
started next summer.
Business has ever moved in a
cycle. and prices have ever followed
the business movement.
THESE business cycles can be trac-
ed through various periods.
There are periods Of depreSsions
and periods Of elevation. The sur
prising thing in it all is how much
alike each cycle is 10 that which
went before.
A chart produced BY the Bust
ness Bulletin" Of the Cleveland
Trust company over a period Of fifty
years presents an almost exact dup
licate OF business from 1879 to 1904
when that of from 1905 TO 1880 is
compared to it.. That is so far as
oscillations are concerned. II is sur
prising the sameness of the fluc-
tuations. From this II can be pre-
6icted that an upward trend OF
business. with prices eve following
the swing. can be predicted simply
because the market is now al one
OF its low levels.
HOWEVER, according TO this same
chart the downward stroke OF
business pen on the chart lacks
about n level Of being as low for
1880 as 1t hit in 1920, and with this
history repeating itself as a basis
the question remains whether that
lower level will still be reached be-
fore the upward swing starts
uEnE III AAC sdASsr DNS
producing our living from the
soil we have been more at the
fixed end Of the pendulum and have
not felt the GUINNESS oscillations so
keenly as sonsN other sections OF
the country. But we have known
it was changing. But we are a
from the bread line class.
The result over the country as a
whole will probably be a few more
bank crashes, Of business houses
going TO the wall. But when these
are announced they should not be
the cause for alarm OF a further
unusual downward trend. These
crashes follow the cycles Of business
Expressions and are but the burst
ing Of the boils Of loose business
methods and management.
In other words business Is still
sound and it is all just this ages old
economic world re-adjusting itself
after a big business drunk.
THE big valleys and peaks seem
to come regularly every ten
years.
Up at McAllen 1t Is said that some
bankers there have expressed them
selves as feeling that business IN
the Valley has hit its low level and
Is starting back. In Brownsville II
has been said that without some
change the upward trend should
start Immediately after the first
year. If this is true it will again
prove that the Valley is always the
quickest TO recover from any busi-
ness blow.
MINATED Annie says the reason
~ the business depressions come
every ten years is hat people
buy stuff on the installment plan
and II takes them seven years to be-
gin 70 default. and three years more
for it 10 be felt.
nut why worry about business in
Il the Valley. Sheriff Frank Brown
and members Of the police de-
partment poured out thousands of
dollars worth Of booze yesterday.
Somebody is said to have asked the
sheriff for q bottle for rubbing pur-
poses, but il seemed TO rub him the
wrong way.
TIP in Arkansas they never worry
about business or rum. II the
fishing isn't good in n place
they move further back into the
hills. If you can speak their Ian
gUaee they Will offer lou a drink
in a gourd. Out OF a cedar bucket.
II will be white and as pure looking
as the fresh water from the spring.
But dear friends don't yer gulp IL
hurriedly thinking Ii water.
II will sizzle and fume going down
like a crazy cracker on a sidewalk.
ard when the first drop hits bottom
the explosion will knock the unin-
itlated c~ockeyed.
Up in the hills they use il for
social purposes and down in the bot
toms they use il for medicinal pur-
poses. For medicinal purposes they
mix il with rock candy and quinine.
Il is said hat after ouaffing il the
mosquitoes won't even bite them.
T. is a mighty race OF men I'D IN
Arkansas or they would never have
survived the first "drap."
vITHICH brings US down to foot
WI ball. Football unlike business
= does not 90 in cycles. 1t is one
continuous upward trend. All the
games Saturday went about "ac-
cording to Hoyle."
Worst Of all in this game is Notre
Dame. There is absolutely no orig
inality TO her. The sports editors