Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-07

ing; because he had two years before
retired from the presidency; because he
was by far the most popular man IN
the Republican party or any party and
because his followers wanted him back
in the presidency-for those reasons
mainly the Taft administration was
unpopular. The Taft administration,
in short, was bound to be unpopular.
Taft never had chance. The mere
existence of Theodore Roosevelt de-
prived him of a chance. Taft might
have been the best President the coun-
try has ever had, but under the condi-
tions of 1910 large part of the country
would not have thought so. The fact
that Roosevelt lived created motive
for hundreds of Roosevelt leaders in the
Republican party and for millions OF
voters among the people to think and
to say that the Taft administration was,
as 1t would be expressed today. AL
wet"
1910 Tariff Unpopular.
The second defect in the parallel
from which the Democrats build their
hopes this year is that the tariff OF
1910 was very unpopular. It is true
the Democrats say the present tariff Is
unpopular. The extent to which the
present tariff may be unpopular Is
subject Of dispute. The Democrats say
It is, but Republican leaders as well as
independent observers with good sources
of information say it Is not acutely
unpopular. In any event, all that need
be asserted here is that the tariff this
year Is certainly not as acutely I'M
popular as was the tariff in 1910.
One reason for the greater unpopu-
larity of the 1910 tariff was that there
were large groups Of Republican leaders
and large masses of EapIInIiraY VOTERS
who instinctively wanted to make the
tariff OF 1910 unpopular. They wanted
Roosevelt back in the White House
and subconsciously they felt that one
way of getting him back was to regard
the tariff as unpopular and to decry
Taft as unpopular because he had
signed and approved the tariff. It is a
fact that Taft not only signed the tariff
bill of his administration but in a
rather inept way took personal response
bility for it and praised it.
1910 House Also Unliked.
The next defect in the parallel upon
which some Democrats this year
ardently erect their hopes is that the
Republican House in 1910 was unpopu-
lar. 1t was unpopular because of its
leader and its spokesman and its
symbol, Uncle Joe" Cannon. Cannon
ism" and the Cannon rules were as
live as a political topic as the tariff
itself. Cannon and the Cannon GEAR
ship" over the House of Representatives
was odious to a larger number of per-
sons than the Taft administration was
This year nobody thinks Of the Re
publican House as unpopular and
nobody thinks Of Speaker Longworth
as an issue ia the campaign.
The final Hafnnf 1t
tween 1910 and 1880 comes back again
to Roosevelt. Roosevelt wanted the Re-
publican nomination, tried to take it
away from Taft, failed, and, upon fail
ing, set up third party, the Progress
siveS. It was that division of the
Republicans that enabled the Demo-
Gratis to win in 1912. 1t cannot be said
with poSitiveneSS that the Democrats
would not have won anyhow, but GER
tainly 1t was the division of the Re-
publicans that made their winning
easy.
No Landslide to Democrats.
To turn to the present campaign as
1t stands upon its own bottom, the fact
Is that at this moment there is no
Democratic landslide under way. There
Is no landslide of any sort. There Is
no Nationwide tide under way. There
is no one outstanding national issue.
This campaign does not have the
form OF Nationwide campaign like
presidential one. This campaign con-
sists of the aggregate of AIS local
campaigns in 435 separate congression-
al districts. (Not as many as ABS, for
in perhaps hundred districts, some
Democratic, some Republican, there is
no contest, or substantially none.)
This years campaign Is essentially
an aggregate of local and individual
campaigns. The principal issue in one
congressional district may be the sit
ting members v6Se on the war veter-
ans pensions. The principal issue In
the adjoining district may be the sit
ting members vote on the tariff-not
as a rule, on the tariff as whole, but
on a specific item in the tariff in which
the district happens to be interested.
The issue in another neighboring dis
trict may be prohibition, due to the
fact that a local candidate may have
taken up one side or the other of pro-
hibition and pushed it to the front. If
Republican candidate for Congress
happens to lose in Massachusetts, it will
be, generally speaking, for different
reason from that which causes Re-
publican candidate to lose in Kentucky
or Missouri.
Prohibition Issue In Some.
The diffused character of the cam
paign Is illustrated as much by prohi-
bition as by any other issue. In dis
trict after district both candidates are
dry; in a considerable number of dis
trictS both are wet. In only compare
lively small number of districts do we
find one candidate wet and the other
dry.
The net of which is that the present
campaign for control of the House is
not really that kind of campaign at all
1t is the aggregate of more than 300
local campaigns, with the outcome to be
determined by local issues, local condi-
lions and local personalities. The net
resultant of these 800 or so local cam
patgns-if anybody can guess twill
determine whether the next House win
be Republican or Democratic.
We all know that the Republicans
will lose some seats. They are literally
bound to lose some--because some of
the seats they now hold came to them
as the result of abnormal conditions.
The present House was elected in 1928,
the same year as the presidential cam
paign between Mr.. Hoover and Gov.
Smith. In that campaign, due to the
presidential aspect of It, certain con-
gressional districts in States like Vir-
GINA, North Carolina, Kentucky and
elsewhere went Republican which had
never, or practically never, gone Re-
publican before. They are districts
naturally Democratic and they will
swing back to the Democrats this year
as surely as States like Virginia have
already swung back TO their traditional
Democratic anchorage.
| Certain to Lose Some.
It is certain the Republicans viii lose
some seats for this reason. And 1t Is
impossible TO And among the Demo-
cratic seats any considerable number
that the Democrats seem certainly des-