Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-10

until they are strong enough to sup
port sustained forward movement VIII
3 add to its permanently, Mr.. stephen
sons statement continues.
s'There are really only two questions
pressing for answer at this time. In
the correct replies to them are en-
bodied all the guidance that Is needed.
: They are: is business starting It's up
ward climb?' and When will 1t become
normal again?'"
Chart Test.
The first one now permits an attirma-
tive answer. 1t is supported by numer.
Gus hopeful signs. One of the several
testing devices is a chart showing the
LENGTH and the curves of preceding re-
actions. We know that as early as June
of last year business began to exhibit
evidences of tiredness and inability to
maintain its quickened pace. This did
not become alarming, though, until
about three months later, when, as
though the entire Nation had with one
accord decided to take fright, the drop
became precipitous. Reckoning even
from the latter advanced date the de-
preston has run IA months, which IS
4 fair average life for its ilk. So II
precedent is adhered to and 1t Is eStab-
lished well enough to merit some degree
of respect, we can look forward with
considerable qualification to the early
end of the period of reaction which has
been more serious perhaps than gen.
orally recognized.
More significant, though, and carry
ing greater assurance are the several
fay1Oihle evidences of improvement.
Foremost among those which may be
depended upon to aid in the upturn;
and which have done so at the end OF
each other depression, are the reduced
inventories. While distribution has
been much below normal, production
has been in even a more serious slump,
and the needs of this great Nation nave
made stable inroadS into the reserve
supplies. There is a normal consump-
ton and there is also minimum con-
sumption and the latter must be salts
fed at all times-in good periods and IN
bad. The recession in business, though,
has been far more severe than simply
looping of the amount Of the difference
between normal and minimum needs.
Production fell sharply below. the volume
required even for minimum consumption
and now that the surplus stores are
nearing depletion and shortages are
developing. the forces OF replenishment
must come into play again. Their ap-
pearance Is noted and this gives en-
couragement to the belief that their
presence viii be felt also reasonably
soon.
Other Factors.
Numerous other faobcrs, too, point
TO a gradual improvement in business.
Commodity quotations are showing some
resistance to the downward trend which
prevailed so long Agricultural products,
though they suffered severe price de-
cline, give promise now or regaln1ng
a considerably higher level Construc-
ton, too, shows some improvement;
factory employment appears to be
their output considerably, while many
others which have not reached the point
of improvement have at least arrested
. the decline.
$50 just as certain as prosperity fol-
lowed each earlier depression it will
come into control again after this one,
and these several evidences, and many
other ones, attest the, beginning of the
forward march and forecast moder-
ately increasing cadence which should
continue until business and industrial
normally is restored in its fullness.
Unlike some earlier disturbed Pc
RODS, credit now is ample to finance a
much larger volume of business. 1t
awaits the opportunity and the rates
are low. In the Federal reserve system,
standing mistaken and with powers
even strengthened by the economic re-
adjustment, business and industry and
agriculture and every form of endeavor
have a puissant and sympathetic ally
IAN institution which has adjusted its
facilities to give the maximum of as
sistance in just such a time as this.
Discriminating use of the credit avail
able should demonstrate its sufficiency
to meet every proper need encountered
on the road to recovery These ele-
&c srt LII A..
the list of encouraging factors, for their
aiQnificance hardly can be nverva llled %