Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-03
BALLOT FORECASTS
CAUTIOUS IN TONE
Leading Political Prophets
ForeSee Probability of
G. o. P. Keeping Control.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

The forecasts of Tuesdays election,
made by the political experts of leading
newspapers, are less exact as to figures
ana less confident in tone than has
been the case with regard to past cleo
tons There is, nevertheless, substan-
tial agreement among them. AS to the
Senate. practically all agree that the
Democrats will make gains, but the Re-
publicans will retain control. AS to the
House, almost all agree that the Demo-
Gratis will make large gains. that these
gains will be slightly less than enough
to control. but that there is a possibility
of the Democrats gaining actual control
of the House. Practically every predic-
ton uses, in cautious way, the phrase,
Possibility of a Democratic landslide"
The fundamental figures with which
all forecasts must start are as to the
Senate, that the Democrats now have
80 Senators out of a total of So and,
therefore, must gain 10 seats to have a
majority, or 40. Hardly anybody ex-
poets the Democrats to get majority
in the Senate. AS to the House, the
figures are that the Democrats now
have 165 seats out of total of ABS and,
therefore, must gain SO to have a bare
uldJOTlIy. Ilt ISdl QucStIOlA AL AuCo-
days election, about which there is any
actual doubt, is whether the Democrats
can gain the So House seats necessary
to give than a majority in that body.
Democratic Control Possible.
The summary Of The Washington
Star, which has made an exceptionally
painstaking assemblage of reports from
all over the country, predicts, some
what tentatively, that "the Democrats
will have net gain of seven seats in
the Senate, giving them As seats, or
three less than are necessary for ma
iority. AS to the House, The Stars
summary cautiously refrains from fig
ures 1t says there appears to be a
possibility, not a probability, that the
Democrats will obtain a clear majority
in the House."
The forecast of the Baltimore Sun
refrains from specific figures. AS to
the Senate, the Sun agrees with all the
others that it cannot foresee an over
turn of the Republican majority" AS
to the House, the Sun says that i'm
partial observers are convinced the
race is SO close that the margin OF con-
troll will not be more than 10 votes one
way or the other"
The correspondent of the New York
Herald Tribune makes a careful and
extensive survey which refrains from
arriving at exact figures. A reasonable
deduction from the details Of the Her
d-Tribunes report would say that IN
the Senate the Democrats will probably
gain six seats and will, therefore, have
four seats less than a majority. AS to
the House, the calculations OF the Her.
ald-Tribune correspondent suggest
roughly a net gain by the Democrats
of about 81 seats, which is 16 less than
enough to give them majority.
Sees G. O. p. Senate Control.
The New York Times correspondent
says, as to the Senate, that ''only by
the remotest possibility will the Demo-
Gratis be able to elect enough OF their
senatorial candidates to insure them
party control" AS to the House, the
Times correspondent says that "the
margin Is not wide enough to Justify
any positive prediction as to whether
the Democrats will or will not carry the
House. The most that can be said is
that the CHouse) elections will be
close
The correspondent of the Democratic
New York World says as to the Senate
that the Democrats will fall short OF
winning control" AS to the House, this
correspondent says 1.-The Democrats will
capture the House by close margin.
The net of these forecasts is that
the Republicans will retain control OF
the Senate though by a majority re-
duced to four or five. AS to the House,
the net, stated roughly, would say that
the Republicans will lose between 80
and 40 seats and will retain control by
, a margin of between Is and % seats.
Only from Democratic sources does
there come any prediction OF Demo
cratic control of the House. At the
same time, all the forecasters make
cautious illusions to the possibility OF
Democratic landslide.
(Copyright 1930)