Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-03-10
EARLY TRADE GAIN
IS SEEN BY BANKER
]. F. Sartori Says Return to
Favorable Situation May
Result Soon.
BY JOHN F. SINCLAIR.


Special Dispatch to The Star,
NEW YORK, March 10.-J. F. Sar
tori, Los Angeles banker, is inclined Il
believe that the readjustments following
ire stock market drop were so drastic
that the worst is over and that re-
turn to a favorable situation will b.
more rapid than was at first expected
THE most prevalent spirit existing
in the various lines of business here Ii
one of caution" said this Iowa-horr
Californian banker. 1T is spirit moi
SO much of anticipation of a further
falling off, but rather of feeling Of
inability to plan for the future. As il
becomes clearer that the public's re-
action to the situation Is not going to
be nearly as drastic as was anticipated
and as, in fact, the public itself rapidly
adjusts it's frame of mind to the pres
ent, believe this spirit of caution will
fade and renewed activity will begin.
The Hoover pronouncement last week
expecting a strong business rise within
so days should help, especially the psy-
Geological factor which, as this Los An
geles banker says, Ito a large extent
is governing the existing situation. A
rapid restoration of confidence will
mean a rapid improvement in business.
If the spirit of caution fingers, business
will take longer to improve"
Chicago, "the terrible example" is
not so bad financially, even If it is the
worlds most maligned city.
Financially the Illinois metropolis is
embarrassed but not bankrupt. There's
a vast difference. When its reaSSeSs-
ment dragged on twice as long as the
time estimated. the city was hog-tied
and forced to issue so-called tax antici-
patton warrants for pay day.
Chicago found itself in the position
of any sound business which at the mo-
ment is not able to collect its just
debts. For two years now not dollar
has been paid into the treasury of
Cook County or the city. So tax an
ticipation warrants allow the city to
function until the reaSseSsment is COM
pleted and the 1928 and 1929 taxes are
collected.
Chicago, including Cook County, has
about $500, 100000 In bonded indebted
ness. What has it got to secure this
debt? More than $4,000, 900, 900 In
real estate valuation Chicago owes 3
per cent of what her visible realty assets
are worth. Is that terrible? Hardly.
Put it another way: Chicago has a
funded debt of SOS per capita, as against
SEAS per capita for New York, and $20l
capita debt is less than is found in Buff
falo, Newark, Baltimore, Cleveland
Pittsburgh, Detroit and score OF other
prosperous American cities.
Recently, the Detroit bureau of gov
eminent research made a study OF the
situation and found that not only in
per capita debt was Chicago lower than
either Philadelphia and New York, but
in the ratio of its net debt to actual
valuation it was very much lower. Chi
cago has 3 per cent Of net debt, New
per cent.
Then why all the adverse publicity?
Let Rufus c. Dawes, well known Chi
cago financier, answer
Chicago is not a city that hides its
light under a bushel. 1t does not even
attempt to conceal its faults. Chicago
openly admits its sinful state. This has
become a settled policy; and there : :
merit in 1t, for the conviction OF sin
the first step toward repentance"
When the Federal Reserve Board is
sued its February bulletin 1t pointed out
that in factory employment alone the
decline during the five months from
August to December last was about as
large as for the two years from the enc
of 1925, when employment was at 9
temporary peak, to the end OF 1927
when the recession was at its lowest
point. The general level of factory en-
ployment in December, furthermore, was
about the same as at the end OF 1927.
Unemployment is today more serious
than it was in either the Winter OF
1927 or the early part OF 1928. 1t prob
ably is Just as severe as 1t was in 1924
Eight years ago the Presidents con-
ference on unemployment, under the
leadership of Secretary Hoover, sug-
gested the establishment of co-ordi-
mated system of employment exchanges
at which the unemployed would register
either for application for jobs or FOL
other purposes to be developed.
For eight years nothing has beer
done. No one knows how many unem-
ployed there are. Secretary Davis Of
the Department Of Labor suggests
three millions. Others suggest four
i've. six millions. who knows? Nobody
One guess is as good as another.
Either the Government should take
steps Immediately to develop plan Of
securing accurate data on this all-im'
Dortant subject or the Barnes commit
tee should make a definite recommen'
0ation for the same.
Every one recognizes the need.
The industrial recovery which founC
January making greater progress thar
any single month since May, 1922, ha:
elackened. The whole industrial fielC
Is now marked by irregularity.
But with Spring Just around the cor
ner, the three key industries of Americs
automobiles, building and steel
should take on new life and activity.
Briefly, those industries showing thu
greatest progress at the present time
are shipbuilding, chemicals, utilttie:
Except traction), tobacco, motion pic
lures, electrical equipment and chair
stores.
Then railroads. steel and iron, mai
order and agricultural machinery are
showing up well, too.
Rayon. sugar refining, copper, build
ing, leather and shoes and automobile
parts-well, not so good.
Radio, coal, cotton goods. aircraft
silk goods, building materials. wooleI
goods and passenger mobiles-quiet
Most business men would like to for
get the wheat and cotton situation, bu
that is impossible. Wheat prices hav'
dropped IS per cent and cotton abou
Is per cent since the first of the year
Probably $3.50 900 900 represents the los
in these two lines at present prices.
II one-fifth Of the crop still remain
in farmers hands. their purchasing
power has dropped about $50,000y00
since January. There does not seem Il
be any particular demand for thes'
products either. which will cause an.
great rise in cotton or wheat prices il
the next few weeks.
(CopyriRht, $780, by North American News
paper Ailiance.)