Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-14
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

! II
| surprising fact is the apparent lack
i of interest in the campaign for con-
! troll of Congress. What Is being
| determined is whether the Republicans
after the November election will con-
| tinue to control Congress. To put 1t the
other way around, what is being deter
mined is whether the Democrats will
succeed in their attempt to take cor=rol
of Congress away from the Republicans.
PARTY control of Congress, especially
control of Congress by party different
| from the one in control of the White
| House, is an extremely portentouS mat
| ter. That there is little interest in the
possibility now is very apparent; but II
1t should turn out on the morning OF
the 5th of November next that the
| Democrats had won control of Congress
| or even of one chamber of Congress- the
event would be the subject OF very ex-
clamatory headlines. National politics
would become very exciting indeed.
Instantly, discussion would seethe
| What will the Democrats do with their
power? Will they revise the tariff
downward? If so, will President Hoover
veto their action?
To turn to another series of specula-
lions that would boil through Novem-
Der If the Democrats should win, would
| it follow that the Democrats would win
| the presidential election two years
later? Whom would they nominate?
Ex-Governor Smith? Gov. Franklin
ROOSEVELT Ex-Governor Byrd of Viz
GINA? Would the Republicans re-
nominate Mr.. Hoover? Would the DEM
! ocratic victory be an augury OF 1mme-
diate restoration of good times? or OF
more prolonged suspense? All these
would blaze through the press II the
headlines of wednesday, November .,
should proclaim Democratic control OF
! the House.
Rarity of Condition.
Such a condition, control of Congress
Cor of one chamber of CongreSS) by the
party antagonistic to that of the Pres
! ident. has existed on only three occa-
sionS during the past 40 years. 10
reduce the condition to the simplest
terms we may confine our consldera-
ton to cases in which the party not IN
power in the White House controls one
chamber of Congress, the House. 1t is
the House, If ANYTHING, that the Demo-
Gratis have q chance to win in the COM
| ing election. Hardly anybody REGARDS
it as possible for the Democrats 10 WIN
control of the Senate.
Control of the House by the party
4 opposed to the President has occurred
| three times since 1890. In 1894 the
| Democrats were in control OF the presl-
dency under Cleveland and In tne NO
vember elections OF that year the re
pIlblicans won control of the House.
Seventeen years later, IN 1910, the Re-
publicans were in control OF the presl-
dencv under Taft and in the November
elections of that year the Democrats
won control OF the House. Eight years
later. in 1918, the Democrats were u
/ control of the presidency under WlsoI
and the Republicans won control OF tne
House. =
In all three of these cases and II
many other precedents going back muci
flrther the winning OF controI OF INT
House by the party antagonist1c TO the
President has been followed two years
later by the same party winning con-
troll of the presidency.
To illustrate what is here meant py
stating it in terms OF the preSent,
the Democrats should win control OF the
House in the coming elections ION NO
yember 4, it would follow-assumns
that the precedents are sound-that the
Democrats two years later, in 1892
would GUST Mr.. Hoover and the RepuD-
Iicans from the White House and would
elect a Democratic President.
That potential outcome, that possible
deduction from Democratic victory In
November is one OF several reasons 1or
greater interest in this campaign than
seems actually to exist. The philosophy
or theory underlying this assumption Is
that Democratic victory this Fall would
be the beginning of tide and that by
| 1882 the tide would sweep up to and
around the White House.
In McKinley's Case.
II has worked that way on the three
occasions since 1890 mentioned above.
In 1894 the Republicans won control OF
the House, and then in the presidential
election of 1896 elected their candidate
for President, Mckinley. In 1910 the
Democrats won control of the House,
and two years later in the presidential
election unseated Taft and placed their
own man, Woodrow Wilson. in the White
House. In 1918 the Republicans won
control of the House. and two years
later. in the presidential elections of
1920, displaced President Wilson with q
Republican President, Harding.
From this sequence it is argued that
there Is a rule, a law of politics, to the
effect that the winning OF control OF
the House by the party not in power In
| the presidency means that two years
later the party having the presidency
will be ousted. To state this rule--n IL
is rule-in terms of the present and
immediate future: If the Democrats
should win control of the House this
November, it would Immediately be as
sunned that in 1882 President Hoover
| Cor whoever else the Republican can
didate might be- would be unseated
and that a Democratic President would
enter the White House.
This assumption, or prediction, or de-
duction from Observation-Disclosures one
chooses to call it--would resound very
noisily in the headlines and political
discussions Immediately after the 4th of
November next, If 1t should happen that
the Democrats should end this cam
paign by winning control of the House.
Limit to Precedents.
All the presidents for 40 years and
most of the precedents for much
longer period argue what is here sug-
gested, namely that If the Democrats
should win control of the House in No
vember they would thereafter, two years
later, in 1882. win the presidency. And
yet, convincing though the precedents
may be, If we argue from precedent
alone, there is something unconvincing
about the whole idea. In at least two
of the precedents mentioned above there
were additional factors which alone
would have been enough to account for
the election of Republican in 1896
and of Democrat in 1919.
| In 1894, when the Republicans made