Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-21
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

been clarifled-put also made
more completely developments
within the past 10 days.
It has been clarified by the an
nouncement of Gov. Franklin Roose-
welt of New York that he is wet and
that he has a definite wet program. II
that event be considered standing
alone, Gov. Roosevelt's chance Of get
ting the Democratic presidential NOM
ination-chances already strong
could be looked upon as, on the whole
fllrthered. But knowledge of what has
gone on among the national leaders OF
the Democratic party lately makes ii
necessary to say that Gov Roosevelt
is not today so close to the Democratic
nomination in 1882 as he was three
months ago.
TwO-Thirds Rule Forgotten.
When one begins an attempt to cIar-
| ify the national political situation with
| in the Democratic party, fundamental
fact, indispensable to be borne in mind
but comparatively rarely borne in
minds the thing that becomes famil-
lar just before each national conven-
ton, but is commonly forgotten curing
the years preceding the convention,
namely, the "two-thirds rule"
In a Democratic National Convention
I
is different from the rule in the Re-
| publican party It is different from
the rule In practically every State as
| regards both parties. It is a unique
rule and has had immense potency in
preventing some nominations and facil-
itating others.
The meaning of this rule comes out
more clearly if we state it the other
way round; in a. Democratic National
/ FNr,z.wy to-, LII.
can prevent the nomination from 60
ing to any aspirant.
Third VIII Be S67.
In the Democratic National Conven-
ton of 1882 there will be, roughly,
| LOO delegates. (This was the mum
Der in 1928 and 1882 it will nor vary
| greatly.) One-third of 1,1O0 Is 367.
The first question, therefore, is
cratic National Convention of 1882, 367
delegates who are dry, and who, being
dry, will resist the nomination of
| Roosevelt.
The second question, closely allied to
| the first, is whether the dry Demo-
Gratis will have a candidate of their
own, one outstanding candidate behind
whom the drys can consolidate and
stand firm,
! OCSAaAaSA StlIcnS OEyS.
The two questions, which, in effect
are one, came Immediately to the front
as soon as Gov. Roosevelt made lis wet
declaration. That declaration had nec-
| eSsarily the effect of Stiffening the
spirit OF the drys. Had Gov. Roosevelt
not made formal declaration of his
Wetness, his nomination in 1882 would
nave been less repugnant to the drvs
Inc drys would have thought of him
as probably wet politically, but as
4 probably sympathetic in a personal
way to the ideal of prohibition.
I HoosevelE, without his formal state
ment, might have been accepted by the
southern drys with tacit tolerance. But
Roosevelt, having made the declaration
and having made it in a formal way
the drys were confronted with the
necessity OF taking an equally formal
position. That is, the dryS now, If thew
accept Roosevelt, must be in a position
OF formally surrendering, of seeing
the control of the Democratic party ma
tlonally go completely to the vets. prac-
ncally without protest from the drys.
Robinson Looms.
In the crystallization that followed
| Gov. Roosevelt's announcement, it be-
| came apparent that If the cirvs have a
candidate for the Democratic nonnina-
ton, their man will probably be Senator
Joseph t. Robinson of Arkansas, The
| speculation becomes, therefore, whether
senator Robinson would have behind
MIN third of the Democratic National
Convention. The further question is
whether Senator Robinson would lend
himself to determined resistance to the
nomination of Gov. Roosevelt.
II Senator Robinson should stand,
and stand to the end, he would by that
act provide the dissenting third with
the one indispensable attribute that
they need to be effective. Senator Rob-
inson would be leader around whom
the third could rally and stand fast.
The possession of such a leader is abb
Solutely necessary to give to a dissenting
third the solidarity which they must
nave to make themselves effective. If
the third does not have a single leader
and single candidate, If the third is
divided, they can easily be overcome.
In the discussion, public and private,
OF Senator Robinson as a potential
asplrant against Gov. Roosevelt, which
arose Immediately after the latter's an
nouncement. there emerged shreds and
fragments of a condition that ALWAYS
has very great weight in politics-but
which the public is rarely able to value.
Support RumOrs Denied.
There were statements and rumors,
partly denied to the effect that some
powerful wet leaders of the Democratic
party Qncluding, according to rllnors
which were later denied, Gov. Roosevelt
HIMSELF had said that if Gov Roose-
welt could not achieve the Democratic
nomination the support of these leaders
would be given to Senator Robinson.
These statements were denied and
the present article does not intend to
deny the denials. Nevertheless, lust
this sort OF thing happens frequently.
To understand 1t, consider what Sem
ator Robinson has done. He, a dry,
was nominated in 1928 as a candidate
for Vice President on the ticket with
ex-Gov Smith, wet, Senator Robinson
accepted the nomination. He lived up
Loyalty to every obliagtion and to every
implication of obligation. He cam
paigned earnestly for the ticket. He
did so at some cost to himself and at
the peril of further cost. The oppo-
;ition which arose in Senator Robinson,s
state OF Arkansas to his own renom-
ination as Senator, while it turned out
to be ineffective, was nevertheless a
liability and detriment which he took
on as part OF the loyal service he had
done TO the Democratic party as q
whole and more narrowly to ex-Gov.
Smith and the other wet leaders of the
party.
Obligation Created.
What Senator Robinson did created
an obligation, an obligation running
from Ex-Gov. Smith, as well as Mr..
Raskob and Gov. Roosevelt and all the
other wet Democratic leaders. to SEN
ator Robinson.
LII