Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-23

q year old. I had never been in busi-
ness for myself before, so this was my
first experience with a major depres-
sion.
One day at luncheon I talked with
an older man who had accumulated
much business judgment He had
started life as q country banker ana
was then, and still Is, head OF large
| chain of stores and a director OF the
Federal Reserve Bank.
when will your business be good
AGAIN." asked him.
He answered: I'm 18 months"
Being young and full of optimism, !
thought that my friend was too con.
servative. That is the prediction OF
| a middle-aged man, thought. But
the prediction turned out to be true,
and I never forgot it.
Therefore, when the present depres-
| sion started I said to my associates:
These major depreSsions are an ID
months proposition. We ought to
tighten up our belts and prepare for
| Is months of hard work" Thus lar
I have seen no reason to change this
opinion.
Sees Traditional Recovery.
If by next Spring, when the weather
warns up and the robins return, we
are not on the up, then shall begin
to fear that this depression Is different
from all those which have preceded 1t.
But until that time am going TO
continue to believe that the situation
is working itself out according TO ira
ditional schedule.
Somebody summed it up in bright
comment by saying: These depreSS1ons
find the average man in possession OF
two suits of clothes. So the duration
of depression is measured by the lie
of two pairs Of pants"
Last Fall, while the inventories OF
corporations were low, the inventories
of individuals were probably higher
than they have ever been in history.
We had enjoyed many years OF pros
perity, each Of us had on hand more
shirts, more shoes, more AUTOMOBILES
than he had ever had before. For
more than a year we have been using
up these inventories, and buying moth
ing new. We are pretty close to the
bottom of our bureau drawers; when
Spring comes we shall have TO outnt
ourselves all over again.
Inventories Are Low.
Advertising has suffered less in this
depression than in any previous one,
and for two reasons. First OF all,
manufacturers we're in far different
situation than in 1920. Then they had
big inventories and no cash; this time
they had no inventories ana plenty OF
cash.
The second reason Is that the Amer
lean business man Is now thoroughly
sold on advertising, not as luxury
to be INDUCED in good times, but as
an investment which Is just as neces-
sary as the proper upkeep Of his plants.
He has come to realize That In al
vertising you are not talking to mass
meeting; you are talking to a parade.
Every day men and women, who Know
all about your product and service,
pass out of the picture by death. And
every day boys and girls are born who
never heard of you and to whom you
must tell your story all over.
Advertising is never done. The story
which you told yesterday must be re-
told today and tomorrow and as long
as you have goods to sell. Business
men now realize this. They no longer
suppose that by cutting their adver-
Using appropriations they are merely
saving money" They realize that they
are sacrificing momentum and relax
ing their grip on the market which Is
ever new, ever changing.
Modern accounting, which has de-
veloped so rapidly in the last 10 years,
has given management far better con-
troll of business. AS this control widens
and becomes perfected 1t ought to be
possible for us to reduce the severity
of these periodic ups and downs.
doubt If we can ever eliminate them
entirely because they have their roots
very deep In the frailties Of human
nature.
Instinct to Achieve.
We are born with the instinct to
fight. to achieve. We are q bundle OF
wants, wants for ourselves, our families
and our friends. These wants drive us
forward. We gather momentum, and
after few years OF good times amol-
ton becomes tinged with greed. We set
our sales quotas higher and higher; we
are no longer satisfied with the returns
that once looked more than satisfac-
tory. Then comes the crash and Tor
long period we are knocked nat. We
have to lie there and sober up, and re-
wise our habits and our ambitions ana
our plans.
goes on in times like these. We look
back to the period Of the boom and
wonder how we could have been so
foolish. We get new grip on funda-
mentals. We spend more time with our
families. We say to ourselves: WHATS
the use of all this rushing? Since We
have so short time to live why should
we crowd ourselves to death?" We be-
gin to get our mental and spiritual
selves in order. ,...,..,
During these last few months a frlend
of mine has been seriously ILL. He has
had a very rich life, existing over 70
wears. He has enjoyed perfect health,
having been in bed hardly day. He
has been very active, and was full OF
planS,
It never occurred to him that he
could possibly be sick. When his over
worked heart rebelled he was very I'M
patient. He argued with the doctors
and disregarded their instructions. He
was sure that he could lift himself by
his bootstraps, that by sheer will power
he could compel himself TO get well
quickly. He must get well. He had so
inI IN this futile rebellion he wasted his
strength, becoming steadily weaker.
FINALLY he could resist no longer. He
realized at last that he must submit,
and that he must revise his whole plan
for the rest Of his life. He Is now re-
covering, but he has very different
idea than he had before he became sick.
When he gets up and around again 1t
will not be with any idea OF driving
himself to work. He will be content
and grateful just to live, and enjoy
leisure and do very much less work.
Case Held Typical.
I sometimes feel that his case Is
typical Of the whole country and, in
deed, the whole world. For years we
have been intoxicated with health and
prosperity. We have driven ahead on
production; the best minds Of the world
| have been concentrated on how to pro-
duce more and more things. Suddenly
we are stricken. For q while we rebel
and try to kid ourselves. We apply all
sorts Of artificial restoratives. We think
| we can lift ourselves by our bootstrape.