Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-04-27
FARM POPULATION DROPS
AS CITIES GROW BIGGER
Rural Sections Expected to Lose %
Representatives in Reapportion-
ment Under 1880 Census.

| large cities. Some thoughtful persons
think this is the real answer to the farm
problem-to see to it that every village
has its factory, to make farming part
time job, and to absorb the farmers
surplus labor in the local factory in the
nearby village.
The Western insurgents in the recent
| fight they made over the tariff had in
mind exactly this objective-to check
| the growth of cities and restore the
population of farms and villages. Not
all of them quite understood just what
they were about, but their reasoning
ran thus:
Question-Why do farmers sons 60 to
cities? AnsWer-Because city occupa-
| lions pay better.
Question-Why do city occupations
pay better? AnSwer-Partly because of
the multiplication for industries
Therefore, take the tariff off all in
duStries and make the tariff very high
on farm crops.
Marked Changes Coming.
All this is speculation. The hard
fact, which the census figures will
clearly show when they are assembled,
is that farm and village population has
decreased while cities have grown
bigger. This is going to have an effect
beyond the stage of sentimental regret.
1t is going to bring about marked
| changes in politics and government.
Among other effects, it is going to
weaken the drys in politics and to
strengthen the vets.
AS soon as this census is completed
there will be reapportionment of
seats in Congress. The new apportion-
ment cannot be estimated in detail
until the census figures are fully known.
But enough OF the census figures are
| already known to make it certain that
the farms and villages are going to
have fewer representatives in Congress,
while the cities are going to have more.
| Congress members from rural districts
are prevailingly dry; those from city
districts prevail1ngly wet. One can
grasp the effect of the change in prohi-
bition strength in Congress.
A common estimate, made in ad-
| vance knowledge of the census figures,
| is that the rural parts of the country
| will lose about % representatives, while
the cities will gain the same number.
Twenty-three members of Congress
who now speak for farming COM
munities will in future speak for city
constituencies. The aggregate shift in
Congressional roll calls will be, of
course, twice %, or 46. And many an
important roll call is decided my much
less than as votes. CThe total men,
bership of the lower house is 435).
But the consequences will go much
| farther. They will affect presidential
elections in most important way.
In presidential elections each State
has as many electoral woes as its mem
bers IN the two branches of Congress.
Consequently, in future presidential
elections there will be % fewer cleo
torial votes from mainly rural States,
and % more from States having large
and growing cities.
Presidential elections have been won
and lost with smaller margins than %
electors. The election Of 1915 between
woodrow Wilson and Charles E. Hughes
was decided by % electoral votes, Will
son having 277 and Hughes 254. A
change of only IL electoral votes would
have reversed the outcome.
And Still More Consequences.
And still that is not the end of the
consequences. Presidential nominating
conventions are made up, roughly, on
the basis of two delegates for each
member Of Congress. Consequently,
after reapportionment in 1892 and
thereafter there will be 46 fewer dele
gates from rural States and 46 more
from mainly city districts. This applies
to both the parties, Republican and
Democratic. 1t will mean something
Particularly will it mean something
as between the strength of cities, which
are mainly wet, and the strength of
rural districts, which are mainly dry.
To paraphrase one of the most ia
miliar sayings in American history,
"Cityward the course of empire takes
its way"
1t is not merely that States having
big and growing cities will gain %
Congressman at the expense of farming
States. The condition goes deeper and
farther Within each State cities will
gain at the expense of rural districts.
AS Representative LoZier of Missouri
put it:
Under the present apportionment in
Missouri, four of the sixteen Congress
men represent industrial and CONNER
cial communities; IL of them represent
| agricultural communities. In each
census the population of these COM
mercial and industrial centers is going
| to- increase and ultimately outrun the
population of the agricultural COM
munities. 1t is only question of a
comparatively few years until the great
cities will practically monopolize the
States Representatives in Congress.
The State will be carved into districts
! to which perhaps a string of rural
counties will be added but the popula-
ton Of the city will be largely in ex-
cess of the country population, which
| means that the cities will control the
! nomination and election of Representa-
tives. This means that the rural sec
| tons will be shorn Of their influence
| and serve as only a ballast or as a
tail to the kite Of the predominating
| city population. The agricul-
tural classes in the shoestring district
would have about as much chance to
! dominate the industrial classes as the
tail OF the dog has to wag the dog. l
am looking forward into the future and
visualizing the ultimate and inevitable
results"
1t is, as Representative Lozier said, an
ultimate and inevitable result"
Will Shift Center of Power.
The net of 1t is that as a result of
/ this census the center Of power in ma
| tional government Is going to be shifted
| cityWard, draStically. First of all, there
| will be national reapportionment of
! Congress members TO the States. In
/ that national reapportionment % Con-
! greSs members now representing mainly
rural States, such as Iowa and Kansas
viii be shifted TO States that have large
and growing cities, such as Michigan
with its Detroit and Ohio with its
| Cleveland
But that is only the beginning
Within each State there will be State
reapportionment of districts In these
State reapportionments, yet more Con-
| gress members now representing villages
and farms will be shifted TO represent
cities. The aggregate cannot be ac-
curately told in advance, but it will be
much more than %.
! After the process is complete, after
all the States have Completed their
State reapDortiOnment by about 1882
/ or 1884, it may bonded, it probably
will be-that a majority of the Lower
House will represent city populations
raaant the c{tu tNoinf Of viaxu al