Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-03
Sun Cycle a Factor in
Present Severe Drought

To the Editor OF The Star:
Your recent publication of the Asso-
ciated Press dispatch concerning my
forecasts based on 56-year cycle
should have clearer presentation.
/. The moon journeys around the
ing which its northern destinations
move from approximately % degrees
so minutes to ID degrees 10 minutes
and back. DR.. George Howard Darwin
for over 80 years professor of astronomy
at Cambridge University, stated in his
authoritative "Tides" that the moon
creates a westward drift in the oceans.
have for the past six years been de-
veloping Dr. Darwin's uncontroverted
statement. The moons westward tidal
drift Is most pronounced in a latitude
zone some 90 degrees in width over
which the moons monthly movement is
conferred. The moon is now during its
extreme northern destinations in zenith
over about Is degrees north latitude
This results in pulling the Azorean cold
water area strongly toward the Eastern
coast of the United States. This cold
water area creates high pressure move
ment of the air with right-hand rota-
ton. Fer this reason. during the past
two months the principal air movement
into the United States has been from
the warm Caribbean and Gulf of Mex
leo on the westerly quadrant of this
| high-preSsure area. Normally but little
rain, and that in showers, can be ex-
pected in high-pressure area. So that
is the first element of causation of the
high temperatures and drought of the
past six weeks
2 The sunspot cycle of approximate
ly 11.16 years passed its broad crest
maximum in December, 1929. with a
| monthly mean of 1906 BY June the
mean had dropped to 30. This so freed
the solar disk from the blanketing eff
fects of the sunspots as to permit un-
usually high solar radiation to reach
the earth. The solar constant has dur
ing July frequently passed 1850, 10
points above its normal, and the high
est mean level In several years. This
effect then is added to that of warm
air currents from the south. so inten-
break all records, even those of 1874,
and still further preventing eondensa-
ticn in rain.
3. The lunar perigee. the moons
nearest approach to the earth, COM
pletes its cycle in 8.85 years. The
perigee effect on tides is 80 per cent
greater than the apogee effect. The
perigee positions are at present well up
with the lunar northern destinations,
SO an auued influence is thus given to
creating and maintaining the blanket
ing high-pressure area in the United
States from southerly winds.
4. Three of the 18.6-year lunar cycles
coincide closely with five 11.16-year
sunspot cycles, and are not far out of
line with six perigee cycles of 8.85
years. They join practically in SIS or
30 years. Other minor influences may
cause variations. But we find that 1890
is even more intense in its heat and
drought than was 1874, its 56-year
predecessor, to which reference is made
for prior year of comparison. I have
also referred to the fact that 1918, as a
result of several years of low rainfall,
recorded the lowest level in the Great
Lakes ever known. That was also Sc
years back from 1874.
doubt if any meteorologist of stand
Ing will attempt to controvert single
assertion in the above proposition.
HERBERT JANVRIN BROWNE.