Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-03-09
TRADE LEADERSHIP
Of j. S. FORECAST
BY CREDIT EXPERT
Dr.. Stephen |. Miller Sees
Nation Maintaining World
Commercial Supremacy.

1.-THE United States Is already well
advanced In a second industrial revolu-
ton which seems destined to maintain
it IN a position of world commercial
leadership for the next 100 years, DR..
Stephen l. Miller, executive manager
of the National Credit Mems Assccia-
ton, told a splendid turnout of men,
berS and friends of the local associa-
ton at the annual Midwinter banquet
and dance last night at the Willard
Hotel.
Gust as the sweeping changes in
productive processes which economists
call the first industrial revolution made
England dominant in world trade
throughout the nineteenth century, the
new industrial order is rapidly trans
ferring that leadership to the United
States" DR.. Miller said.
Intensified application of machinery
to production, tremendous expansion
OF credit, sweeping changes in the sys-
tenn of distribution and the unpre-
cedented development of mergers and
consultations are some of the things
which set our period apart from the
first industrial revolution" he said.
Sweeping Changes Noted.
Dr. Miller said that the first phase
Of the new industrial revolution is
already passing This early phase, he
said, was marked by an increase In real
wages and an improvement in the gen.
eral standard of living, despite an In
crease in general price levels.
1.-THE second phase of the new in
dustrial era which is now beginning is
first Of all, period of greatly in
creased productivity. It may be also
a period of gradual decrease In price
levels, or, conversely, of increasing value
of the dollar. expect it to be a period
Of greater elasticity Of credit.
THE very nature Of our present in
dustrial order, based on large-scale
operations and mass production, de-
mandS that we find larger foreign mar :
kets for our products. Trade no longer
follows the flag or the battleship. II
put more and more into foreign in
vestments If we are going to build UP
| our foreign trade"
Shorter Credit Periods Seen.
DR.. Miller said that means woulC
have to be found for adjusting the
credit structure to the requirements Of
| the new industrial era. It will un.
doubleday be necessary, he said, to de.
velop an increased elasticity and mobil-
| ity Of credit.
THE credit executive, in making his
daily decisions, will do well to keep In
mind these details of the larger eco
nomic picture" he said. "As a guardian
of the commercial credit reservoir, he
should direct every possible effort to.
ward cutting down the average perioc
! accounts are outstanding.
| The world credit structure is basec
on strictly limited supply of gold
and the expansion Of credit seems tx
be proceeding faster than the increaSc
| In the gold supply. Shortening tn
credit period would result in large saw
| ings Of interest, and would have tn
effect Of pumping credit back into tn,
reservoir of general purchasing powe
at shorter intervals"
From the standpoint of the individual
business, he said, this shortening o
| the credit period would amount simpl.
10 an increased rate of turnover o
working capital, and could be expected
10 have the same stimulating effec
as an increase in working capital.
Watts Presides at Banquet.
T. Lister Watts. president of the locs
association, presided at the dinner AM
William E. Leahy was POSTMASTER. TIL
affair was in charge of the following
ommittee: r. Jesse CLANCY. chairman
John N. Auth, H. T. Bisselle, E. I
Burdette, P. j. Eichhorn, William f
Garrison, Mrs E. J. Hess, L. M. Hew
!ett' W. r. Little, Harry S. Moyel
Jonn A. Reilly, E H. Ruark, Miss
Z. Thompson and L. T. Watts.
Paul Phillips, Eastern manager O
the national association, brought brie
greetings from headquarters. The en-
tertainment, furnished by profession