Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-02
BY HARVEY s. FIRESTONE.


even name the month In which
Il there will be such a substantial up
turn in business throughout the
country that there will be national rec
ignition Of the return Of good times. "
But this I do know: That we shall
have in America, and beginning reason
ably soon, an era of prosperity for the
masses of our people eclipsing anything
of the kind we have had before.
am not saying this with any purpose
TO boom business" I know that busi-
ness cannot be artificially doomed" for
very long or very widely. When busi-
ness recovery comes, 1t will come not
because of any widely advertised buy
more-for- prosperity campaigns, but be-
cause those who advertise have more
to offer.
In short business recovery will result
from the natural workings of economic
1aws-iust as a broken leg knits, heals
and mends from within, and not because
of any ointment or remedy" applied by
a physician. There are certain things
that can and should be done to aid the
process of recovery and to insure per-
feet, all-around healing. But essentially
the recovery must be made by dint Of
the working of natural forces
The fact is that when we thought our
selves most prosperous we were least
secure. And the fact is also that when
we are least happy in a business and
economic way-aS at present-we are
making the most progress toward our
goal. Last Winter, after heavy snow
fall in Akron, saw 20 or 30 boys hav-
ing a perfectly glorious time coasting on
their SledS down a long hill in an OUT
lying section Enjoyment was written
on every face as the boys sped downhill.
But it was quite obvious that there was
not nearly so much joy In toiling up
the hill after the descent, and I have no
doubt that to most of the boys the hill
seemed at least ten times as long on the
up journey as on the trip down. I no.
ticed several of the boys attempt to ride
up the hill on the sleds which their
companions were pulling. They were
promptly put of and rolled in the snow
drifts along the road, of course. Prob
ably this took quite bit of the Joy of
the downhill coasting out of their minds.
Some of them decided not to continue
going uphill, quit and went home
Business Was COasting.
During a considerable part of the
period which preceded the stock market
crash of October, 1929, business was
coasting downhill without those in
charge being aware of the fact. Bush
ness had pushed its way laboriously up
hill after the widespread depression of
the years 1920 and 1921, and there was
an irresistible tendency to take 1t easy'
and coast along after the hard work Of
the ascent.
Nearly every big business organiza-
uon-and, on proportionate scale,
smaller ones, too-added vice presidents
and assistant superintendent and other
assistants all along the line, to make
things easier for the men who had
pulled upgrade and who now wanted to
coast. The effort throughout busi-
ness was to increase sales, without,
however, increasing the incentive to buy.
New factories were planned and built,
production facilities increased in every
way, without much thought of changes
that were inevitable in demand, sources
OF supply, in markets, in methods of
manufacture and distribution.
Let me give another analogy that
illustrates what happened to our pros
per1ty. I remember as a boy cooper
ating with several other boys in Great
ing what we conceived would be the
biggest SNOWFALL ever made. When we
f1rst talked over the project one or two
OF US had in mind a SNOWFALL that
would tower above the tall picket fence.
Another of the boys wanted to roll one
that would be as high as the wood
shed: and suppose some of the boys
had visions Of SNOWFALL as high as the
house.
Recalls Broken Snowfall.
We all went to work with a will,
rolling small snowballs and consolidat-
ing them until we had one that was so
large and heavy that we all had to join
in pushing it along, to gather up a
broad expanse of the snow on the
ground that was getting scarcer and
scarcer as We proceeded We were all
so busy pushing and showing without
any definite objective or charted course
that we failed to note a slight declivity
until our giant SNOWFALL had rolled
down it and distintegrated in thou
sand fragments when 1t crashed against
o tree.
And that's what happened to the
prosperity that was created in the years
roughly, from 1921 to 1928. The same
thing has happened before. Probably
1t will happen again.
But mark this: In each cycle we
create a bigger SNOWFALL and by that
mean a greater measure Of prosperity
for the people as a whole. And in the
course of the next 10 years we shall
create a greater prosperity than we
have known before, for greater num-
Der Of people. We shall permanently
lift the American standard of living tc
higher levels than have existed before
during the century and half of our
national life.
Is this mere hope, or conjecture, OF
baseless optimism?
Not at all!
1t is simply sound reasoning based
on experience: on knowledge of what
has gone before during all the decades
since our Government came into being
! cannot predict when steel com
mon" will again sell at 200 or better
do not know. and do not care. wher
Wall Street will again have succession
of five or six million share days on g
rising bull market.
I do not know when there will be 8
shortage instead of a surplus OF labor
though I fervently hope that that viii
be soon.
Conditions Fundamentally Sound.
But 1 do know, with a positive con,
viction based on the indisputable fact:
of the past, that the present business
depression will be comparatively short
lived in contrast with the period Of ma
tional prosperity TO follow. 1t has al
ways been so in America. 1t will con
tinue TO be so as long as we have wha
are commonly designated as "tunda
mentally sound" conditions.
/ know that phrase has been riddel
TO death; that about the time SOM
leader calls attention TO "the funda
mentally sound condition Of America
the stock market executes another nos
dive and derisive comments are freel.
flung by newspaper photographers a
those who have expressed optimism
about the basic business condition o
the country.
Nevertheless, the fact is that tn
people of America could not possibl
avoid prosperity very long, even if the
made no attempt to capture it. Tn
country possesses all the natural ele
ments that actually insure prosperity
We have ample supplies of coal, of oil