Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-07
AUTO TRADE WAITS
ON BUSINESS TURN
Many Replacement Orders
Expected With Passing of
Present Depression.
BY DAVID J. WILKIE.
Associated Press Stan Writer.

DETROIT, August Realizing that
requirements Of WORKOUT cars account
for steadily growing percentage Of pro-
ductioh, the automobile industry, ac-
cording to authoritative opinion, may
look for more than a normal consump-
ton Of Its output when a definite upturn
in general business conditions arrives.
This is explained with the statement
that many thousands Of automobiles
that should have been discarded, or nor
mally would have been traded in this
year, have been patched up and kept in
operation, although they have outlived
their normal years Of satisfactory use.
Patching Up" Process.
While conceding that the patching
UP" process can keep an automobile go
ing almost indefinitely, leaders Of the
industry say that as soon as definite
relief from unemployment conditions is
assured, there will come rush Of old
car owners desiring to replace their
nearly WORKOUT vehicles with new ones.
These deferred requirements, coupled
with those normally due, should furnish
the industry with more than normal
demand when the looked-for upturn in
business comes. Thus 1t is that al
though dealers are generally lamenting
the fact that people aren't buying new
cars; they're using the old Ones" pro-
ducers inclined to be optimistic see in
every aged model now in operation
symbol of potential business for the
future. Normal requirements in the
automobile industry have been authori-
tatively estimated at 100000 units an
nually. While this figure probably would
be somewhat high and had the current
year been approximately normal, 1t
probably will be an extremely conserva-
mand for 1881, taking into consideration
many requirements long overdue.
The future growth of the automo-
bile industry, in the opinion of Felix
M. Farrell, statistician of the First Ma
tional Bank of Detroit, "is expected to
depend more and more on foreign
sales" He points out that, while the
so-called saturation point may be many
United States, with its 26,5O0, 1000 We
hicles, amounting to rs per cent of the
world total, no longer presents the
potential absorbing power Of the newer
and more undeveloped countries, par
ticularly those In Central and South
America"
Inventory Season.
The automobile industry enters the
third quarter Of 1880 with many of
its factories about to shut down for
vacations and inventories. These shut
downs have been announced as for two
weeks. Although all of the industry
leaders are not inclined to be overly
optimistic, those who decline to be en-
tirely the opposite say that the Inn
portant thing as the halfway point IN
1880 is passed is, not that conditions
continue generally unsatisfactory, but
that several large companies nave
worked out of the depression and are
well on the road to year OF norman
production and sales:
To those who see the automobhe m
dustry as key industry OF the Natlons
business the shutdowns are looked upon
as a distinctly advisable step In iur-
ther leveling OF the induStryS proouc-
ton peaks and valleys. The EFFORT IN
this direction began late last Fall with
the adjusting of production to demand.
with close to 100000 persons in the
United States dependent upon the au-
tonaobile industry and its allied lines
for employment, any current effort to
stabilize production will have a wide
spread effect In Fastening the return
OF improvement in industry and busi-
ness.
Change In Models
One of the pioneer companies, long
producing q line of six-cylinder models.
has definitely abandoned the six for the
eight cylinder type. It has been IN pre-
duction on the latter model for severe
weeks Several other companies also
will have new models out before the
end of the month.