Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-03
PARTIES NOW BATTLING
FOR CONGRESS CONTROL.
Senate May Have Upset, but House Held .
Likely to Remain Under
G. O. p. Majority.

likely to gain anywhere from three TO
five seats from the Republicans.
OF the Is seats now held by insur-
gent Republicans. five are to be filled
IN November. They may possibly loss
one or two of the I'VE. If the insurgent
Republicans lose any seats it will be to
Democrats-and the net Of the change
control of legislation in the Senate.
No Big Change Likely.
If all this seems intricate and long,
the net of it can be put in three
sentences:
The net of senatorial elections In
November is not likely to change the,
majority for the purpose of legislation
consists Of q combination of Democrats
and insurgent Republicans.
If there should be a change the neu
status would be that of a Democrats
majority-and that would not be a nes
status at all. There might be psy.
Geological effect on the country; but
new majority consisting of Democrats
only would not be a material change
from the present majority consisting of
Democrats and insurgent Republicans.
So much for the Senate. AS we turn
to the House we find simpler picture.
The situation in the House Is not made
complex by the existence of insurgent
Republicans. In the House there are
no insurgent Republicans-that is,
there Is no formal inSurgent Republican
group. In the House everybody that
goes by the name Republican votes as
a. Republican-witha few unimportant
and unorganized exceptions. In the
House the Republican majority is able
70 dominate quite comfortably and ts
pass or reject such legislation as the
party chooses. 4
The makeup of the present House,
allowing for vacancies, is, roughly
Republicans, 1853; Democrats, 1854:
Farmer-Labor, l. That is, the Repub-
Leans have majority Of close to q
hundred.
G. o. p. May Lose Thirty.
To overturn this Republican majority
that party would need to suffer q net
loss of at least so seats. (The entire
House, 435 seats, will be filled at the
November election)
The question, therefore, IS. will the
Republicans in November suffer :. net
loss of SO or more seats? As one moves
about among leaders Of both partIes,
one finds q curious agreement of judg.
ment. Republican leaders say they may
-ose as many as 80 seats; Democratic
leaders say they will gain at least 80
seats and perhaps 40.
do not know any Democratic leaoer
who in private conversation expresses
an expectation of winning cll' Vi Il
The House; nor do I know any Repub-
lican leader who in either private con-
versation or public announcement cl1-
cedes that the Republicans nay lose
the House. The clear probability,
according to the consensus of Judgment,
Is that the Republicans will suffer Q
material loss, but will keep control Of
the House
August /. There are three months and
four days until the election. 1t is. Of
course. possible, either for a current to
begin adverse to the Republicans, or
for some sensational and unexpected
event to do damage to the Republicans.
If by any chance the Democrats
should win control of the House. that
would be different matter than the
Democrats winning control of the SEN
ate. For the reasons given above q
clear Democratic majority in the Sem
ate would make no material differ
ence- If not accompanied by a Demo-
cratic majority In the House. If there
should be an unexpected landslide, If
the Democrats should win control of
both the Senate and the House, the
fact would be sensational and the
consequences would be material.
Outlook for Two Years.
We. should have for a period of two
years both chambers of Congress In
control of one party, with the White
House In the control of the other.
This condition has existed occasionally
in the past. It has not been very
comfortable for the country. When It
has existed 1t is made a good deal of
news, politics has become dramatic and
contentious. The country has enjoyed
a good show-but thoughtful persons
have not considered that the country
was greatly benefited.
And yet what would be the effect
in actuality? A probable effect would
be a partial paralysis of legislation. As
to that, there are at least two possible
comments. Just what legislation is
there that is imperative? Just what
would we miss through partial pa
ralysis of legislation that we ought to
have? The paralysis would not be
complete. The Democrats would pass
the regular appropriations and the
routine bills to keep the Government
going and the President would sign
them. While there would be tendency
toward the setting up of dramatic con-
tests and deadlocks, the fact would be
that in really important matters the
Democratic Congress and the Repub-
lican President would cooperate for
the country's good. BY far the most
important action taken by Congress in
the recent session was the ratification
by the Senate OF the naval treaty. In
that ratification of a pact initiated and
negotiated by Republican President
the Democrats co-operated fully. Acr
tually larger proportion of the DEM
ocrats in the Senate voted for the rati.
fication than of the Republicans. Al
but two Democrats present voted TO.
the pact. In really serious situatiom
neither Democrats nor Republican
turn enemies to the country.