Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-08-31
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

/ greatly mOVe0-Che question: is,
Congress? The present article deals
with the Senate only.
The first fundamental fact is that
the Senate at present consists of 56
Republicans 80 Democrats and l
Farmer-Labor (ShipStead of Minne-
sota). Equally fundamental with this
Is the fact that IA out of the Sc Re-
publicans in the present Senate are
Republicans only in name. They call
themselves Progressive Republicans"
publicans. A few persons call them
by names not printable here Senator
George Moses calls them sons of tho
wild jackaSs." In that association Of
the Progressive Republicans, with the
jackass as the symbol of Democracy,
there is aptneSS, for the insurgent Re-
publicans are, as respects most legisla-
ton, more nearly Democrats than Re-
publicans. Most of them have an atti-
tude. Of rather bitter malevolence to-
ward the Republicans. They are anti
Republicans. Senator George w.
Norris, for example, undoubtedly hates
the Republican party, whereas his at
titude toward the Democratic party is,
ms rule, one of cooperation.
Counts All as Republicans.
However, for simplicity's sake, the
present article counts the Progressive
Republicans like the Republican Ma
tlonal Committee treats them, that is,
as Republicans. This course Is COM
PEELED by considerations of clarity and
Is tenable on broader grounds, since
the real question in this campaign IS
whether there Is pronounced trend
toward the Democratic party.
The next fundamental fact is that
out of the Sc Republican seats 20 are
to be filled in the November elections;
and out of the 80 Democratic seats ID
are to be filled.
Comparison of these two figures of
seats to be filled, % Republican and ID
Democratic, reveals the first significant
omen of the outcome. Inherently,
other things being equal, 1t Is easier
for the Democrats to hold Is seats than
for the Republicans TO hold %.
To say that, however, is far from
saying that the Democrats will win
control of the Senate. On the con-
trary, the aggregate of the signs points
the. other way. strongly.
Is Democratic Seats First.
Consider, first, the IS Democratic
(that is. now held by Democrats) seats
to be filled in November. The list of
them, together with the name of the
sitting Democratic Senator in each
case is:
Texas, Morris Sheppard; Virginia.
Carter Glass: Arkansas, Joseph I.
Robinson: Mississippi, Pat Harrison;
Georgia, William ]. Harris; Louisiana,
Joseph E. Ransdell; South Carolina,
Cole Blease; Alabama, j. Thomas Hef-
lin; Tennessee William z. Brock; North
Carolina, Furnifold M. Simmons; Mon
tana, Thomas j. Walsh; Iowa. Daniel
F. Steck, and New Mexico, Sam @.
Bratton.
The names above are the names of
the sitting Democratic Senators. They
are not, in all cases, the present candi-
dates. For example, Helm Of Alabama
was excluded from his party and Is
running independent. Brock OF Ten
nessee was not renominated for the
long term. The Democratic candidate
in that State is Cordell Hull. Simmons
of North Carolina was not renominated;
the Democratic candidate in that State
is j. w. Bailey.
G. O. p Victory Would Be Miracle.
In that list of Democratic seats to
be filled in November, a significance,
favorable to the Democrats, Will be
found by observing that the first 10 OF
the IS States are in the Democrats
10 of the Is Democratic seats to be
filled in November the Democrats will
have hardly the faintest trouble IN
holding them. BY miracle the re-
publicans might win one or two OF
them-but a miracle Is not now eX-
pected. In other words, the geographl-
cal distribution of vacancies that occur
this year happens to favor the Demo-
Gratis greatly.
The net of it is that the Democrats
viii hold 10 of their Is seats without
difnculty. They don't even need 70
campaign for them. They can concen-
trate their efforts on defending the re-
naming three-and on making an OF
fensive raid against the % Republican
seats.
In considering the net outcome OF
the election in November begin, there
fore, by assuming as certainty that
the Democrats will hold 10 of their 13
seats. AS to the three others, they
must fight. AS to one of them, Iowa,
hardly any amount of fighting by the
Democrats will do much good. Iowa
the Democrats will pretty surely lose.
The two others, Montana and New
Mexico, are doubtful States.
The net about the Is Democratic
seats is that the Democrats are sure
to hold 10, are almost equally sure to
lose one and must fight for two as
doubtful.
~ Republican Seats at Stake.
tTurn now to the % Republican seats
which are to be filled in November
The States, with the names of the sit
ting Republican Senators, are:
Ohio, Roscoe C. McCulloch; Michi-
gan, James Couzens; Idaho, William E. |
Borah; Kansas, Arthur Capper and |
Henry j. Allen; Pennsylvania, Joseph |
Grundy; Oregon. Charles L. McNary;
Nebraska, George w. Norris; Massa-
chusetts, Frederick H. Gillett; Illinois.
Charles S. Deneen; West Virginia, Guy |
D. Goffi Colorado, Lawrence G. |
Phipps; Delaware. Daniel o. Hastings; |
Wyoming, Patrick j. Sullivan; Rhode |
Island, Jesse HaMetcalf: South Dakota, |
William H. McMaster; New Hampshire, |
Henry w. Keyes; Maine, Arthur r. |
Gould: Minnesota, Thomas d. s;chall; |
New Jersey, David Baird ir.: Okla
homa. w. B. Pine; Kentucky, John M.
The names on the list above are
those of the Republican sitting Sen
atoTs. They are not, as to several
cases, the names of the present candi-
date in the November election. The
sitting Republican Senators have not in
all cases been renominated For ex-
ample, in Pennsylvania Secretary &c
Labor James j. Davis has been sub
stituted for Joseph r. Grundy. Grundv.
of Pennsylvania and Deneen of Illinois
tried for denomination. but were de-
feated. Six other sitting Republican
did not try for denomination.
Significant Point to Study.
Right here is point in which some
may be found. Some sig
nificance though rlnsSihlY not as mncn