Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-12-28
BY FRANK H. SIMONDS.
oNDoN.-The coming Of the holi-

7 ONDON.-The coming Of the holi-
day season and the approach of
a new year must inevitably in
- Spire certain speculations as to
the prospects for the next IL
months in foreign affairs. The year
that is ending has patiently been the
worst since the termination of the
World War, and has Enthusiastically
aroused certain natural and even in
evitable apprehenSions. What, then, is
| the outlook for a new year?
The answer to this Interrogation must
in no small measure be sought in the
economic rather than the political pros
poets. For in no small measure the
explanation Of current political trouble
is to be discovered in business depres-
sion. In the United States and Great
Britain, which have known hard times,
as in France, which has largely escaped
them, the political regime cannot be
endangered by hard times. The United
| States, for example, takes its crouch
out upon the party in power, but no one
would for q moment think of abandon
ing the republican form Of government
because Of stock market crashes and
agricultural disaster.
New Governments Experimental.
In Europe, by contrast, the political
institutions of many oountrieS-and
among them several of the most impor-
tant-have as yet sent down only very
short roots. In Germany and Italy
notably the republic on the one hand
and the Fascist state on the other repre-
sent novel experiments experiments
which were entered upon contrary to
the will or without the participation Of
ma oritieS. Thus the permanence Of
these forms Of government depends al
most uniquely upon their ability to
produce prosperity at home and pres
| tige abroad.
And particularly In the case of Ger
many economic depression following the
disaster of a lost war has made both
achievements for the moment impossi-
BILE. More than decade after the close
of the war the German people find
| themselves still lacking any semblance
Of pre-war prosperity at home. while
the republic has not regained the old
position of the empire abroad. Bread
and glory are alike absent; hence the
phenomenon of Hitler and the "NaZis."
And in Italy, where the economic de-
preston is severe, the necessity to en-
phasize international influence explains
the worst Of the Mussolini thunderings.
Yet at bottom nothing Is clearer than
that neither the Italian nor the Ger
man FaScists desire war. We have
slipped back easily and naturally into
the discussion Of postwar European
circumstances in the language OF pre-
war times, but there is one essentially
different circumstance, namely, the fact
that all peoples have now known war,
while in 1914 it was something outside
the experience not merely Of the young
but also of the mature.
If there had been no far-reaching
| and intense economic crisis, 1t is fair
to conclude that in the past two years
we should have heard comparatively
little Of the Super-nationaliStic bonn
baSt of recent months. If there Is even
a slight recovery in business, 1t Is
equally reasonable to believe that next
year will find international trade cir
cIlmstances pushing international con-
f1ict possibilities OF the front page.
One can support such statements by
glance at still recent history. Fol-
lowing the making of peace from 1919
right down to the beginning OF 1924
economic conditions in many countries
after momentary recovery continued
bad, and in the same period the inter-
national relations moved with ominous
SteadineSS toward that supreme diSaS-
ter that was the occupation Of the Ruhr.
At that moment the ruin Of Europe
that was forecast by many and escape
from general misfortune seemed i'm
possible.
Catastrophe Brought LOcarnO.
Yet the very fact of having been
brought face to face with a new and
general catastrophe proved in the end
salvation, for it opened the eyes OF
millions who knew what war meant to
the dominating necessity for change.
And in one brief IL months we had the
British and French elections and the
arrival of new men who made the
Dawes plan and after innumerable
conversations in many capitals met and
made history at Locarno. And after
Locarno for four years Europe talked
peace, cooperation, and, above all,
business.
Manifestly affairs have reached a
similar crisis now. To go on in the
direction of the past year for another
IL months Is already perceived every
where to be dangerous beyond exag-
geration. Not dangerous in the sense
Of threatening a new war In any imme-
date time. The peril Is not here. But
dangerous in that peoples are drifting
into uncompromising support OF posi-
tions Of nationalistic purposes, which
must prevent present cooperation and