Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-09-12
Long-Range Weather
FOrecasting Debate
To the EDITOR Of The Star:

In my letter published in The Star
September 8 under the heading sun
Cycle a Factor In Present Severe
Drought" I presented the factors in
luni-solar cycles. resting mainly on
oceanic temperature reactions which
caused the great drought of 1890, and
named the three periods of similar
weather which sustained the cycle
theory, viz, 1880. 1874 and 1918, sepa-
rated by intervals of Sc years, the true
theoretical cycle being $50 years. To
this should be added 1862. which
Peirces Weather Records (Philadelphia,
1847) refers to as follows:
THE severest drought ever experi.
enced in America was in the Summer
of 1852. Scarcely sprinkle of rain fell
for nearly four months. viz. from Nav
to September. Vegetables of every de-
scripton persisted"
follows:
Il doubt If any meteorologist of
standing will attempt to controvert a
single assertion in the above PROPOSE
ton
The challenge still stands. The dis
chalmers and congratulations of Prof
Charles F. Marvin, chief of the United
States Weather Bureau, set forth in
The Sunday Star September 7 do not
meet this condition. Let me add q Sc
ries of forecasts, each and all based
primarily on study of luni-solar effects
on oceanic conditions and relating to
this record-breaking drought with its
accompanying heat,
Synopsis of annual forecast for 1880,
issued December 80, 1929: THE cold
Winter will taper slowly INTO a cold late
Spring. The late Spring will be
followed by a Summer cool on both
seaboards, but with high temperatures
in July and August in the Great Plains
and great interior valleys"
The above was repeated with amplifi-
caticsS6 in the annual forecast for 1880
ana 1881, issued January IS, 1880.
Among others, Below normal rainfall
will be in order in the Middle and
South Atlantic seaboard, including
Florida, from May ON. The dry
belt this year will be south of the Ohio
and the Missouri and quite in evidence
in the areas now suffering from Winter
floods" For length of drought a close
approximation.
Weather forecast to July IS, issued
May 81, 1880: 1.-The end of June and
the first half of July will be hot"
Weather forecast to August /, issued
June ID, 1890: THE heat will be no.
table All this effective from June 90
Weather forecast to August 80, issued
June 30, 1880: For the country at
large the hot weather predicted to arrive
June 20 has come and will maintain its
hold for the next two months"
The average date in Is leading cities
for the beginning OF the heated spell
was June 20, six of them actually on
the goth, and in the others a variation
number of other cities the date was
slightly earlier
An Associated Press release appear
ing in The Star July 81 contains the
statement from me that there would
be no definite end to the heat wave
till after Labor day. This statement
appeared in hundreds of papers receiv-
ing the Associated Press service. This
forecast also was sustained 100 per
cent.
Prof, Marvin refers to the cold wave
of August and quotes in full the
Weather Bureaus Outlook for the
Period August IL to 49," and speaks
of it as verified CLOSE to 100 per
cent" He states that Forecaster
Weightman detected the imminence of
this cold wave Friday morning. August
8. in wireless report from a Canadian
meteorological station in the Mackenzie
Valley. The cold wave was plainly
in evidence the night Of August 9-10,
but the local forecasts issued Saturday
morning generally characterized the
coming weather as mot quite so warm
Sunday night" But Sunday night
witnessed frosts in Pennsylvania and
New York, Connecticut and MaSSa-
chuSetts, and temperatures of % in
the cranberry boys of Wisconsin.
The interesting points are, first, that
Prof Marvin admitted the possibility
of a successful forecast covering a
week, although in this instance it was
like figuring the time it would take
train to travel from Winnipeg to
the Atlantic Seaboard, and second,
that 1 had forecasted that cold wave
in the bulletin of July 81, as follows:
"There will be a cool wave during the
week of August TO-" And I did not
have the convenient footstool of
Canadian report on which to stand.
This whole question of long-range
bases on which it rests, will shortly
entific institutions in the world for
examination and report. Prof. Marvin
will undoubtedly be given an oppor-
publicly and officially, that "the bureau
knows of no sound physical laws by
which such forecasts can be made with
any promise of success"
Incidentally. the daily map OF the
Weather Bureau predicted showers %
times during July and August for
Washington, with only s Notifications.
Six other unforecasted showers oc-
Cured. What percentage of glorifica-
ton will this yield?