Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-11-09
CHANGES OF DISARMINC
EUROPE WORSE SINCE 1914
Nations Consider Subject With Own
Interests in View as League Pre-
pares for New Farley

no American scaling down of war debts.
Unhappily this argument Is as little
effective now as It has always been In
the past. Neither France nor her allies
are ready to reduce their own means of
defense in the hope of obtaining re-
duction Of their bills TO the United
States. Quite by contrast they argue
that the United States, being interested
in collecting the debts. should be con-
cerned over their defensive strength.
And, in the last analysis, the French are
perfectly aware that Congress and not
the Hoover administration would have
to approve any debt reduction. They
discover no evidence of any such
benevolence.
Ask Guarantee Promises.
The United States and Great Britain,
who have always sought to promote
reduction of land ornaments in Europe,
have always failed to make any progress
because the European nations can be
persuaded to reduce their armies only
by promises of guarantees of a military
sort in case their reduction of armies
Is followed by war. The situation has
not changed today. Rather the fact
that the armed nations are more nerv-
Gus than at any time since Locarno,
insures that their demands for counter
balancing securities will be accumulated.
And obviously neither the Hoover adj
mtn1Stration nor the Macdonald gov
eminent can or would give guarantees.
In the question of naval limitation,
the prospect is quite as barren. The
Franco-Italian negotiations have COM
pletely broken down, because the French
are unwilling on any basis to concede
Italian parity, given Fascist programs in
the Mediterranean and in North Africa.
Since Italy Is poor and France rich, the
sole manner in which the Italians can
attain parity is by the limitation of
French strength. AS a consequence
Italy VIII support a program Of limita-
French In their turn Will support a
program Of proportionate reduction in
surfing their present advantage.
In the meantime there has been q
revival OF French national interest in
the navy. The moment is at least in
sight when the French construction
program Will compel the British to
consider invoking the famous escalator
clause OF the London treaty, which
would involve expansion Of the Ameri-
can building program If parity were to
be preserved.
At the present moment Europe is GO
ing through two different experiences.
On the one hand, the Fascist victory
in Germany and the Italian demonstra-
tons following the London conference
have produced a profound anxiety
among all the nations that desire to
preserve the existing territorial situa-
ton In Europe-that Is, France and her
allies. On the other hand, acute eco
nomic depression in all countries except
France has played into the hands Of
political extremists, Fascists and Com
munists alike.
Depression Doubtful Aid.
But 1t would be grave error to be-
lieve that the economic depression can
contribute to furthering the disarma-
ment task, because the nation most
strongly armed-France-is least af-
fected by the depression and most dis
turbed ny the political tendencies in
Italy and Germany. Moreover, the evac-
uation of the Rhineland-nearly five
years In advance of the treaty debt
having been followed by the triumph
of Hitler and the explosion of Fascist
violence, no French government could
survive an advocacy Of new concessions
to Germany, in the way of reduction of
ornaments, unaccompanied by new
guarantees of French security coming
from the Anglo-Saxon countries.
AS far as one can see today, France
will not assent to any further reduction
Of land armament until Germany has
agreed to accept as permanent the
present territorial status of Europe as
flxd by the treaties Of 1919, or until
Great Britain and the United States
agree to support France II Germany by
violence attempts to revise these trea-
ties. Nor will she agree to any restric
ton Of naval ornaments, such as would
insure the maintenance Of the tonnage
figures of the London treaty, unless
Britain agrees to give her a treaty of
insurance in the Mediterranean. In
this stand France will be supported by
Poland, Rumanta, Czechoslovakia., Yugo-
slavia and probably Belgium.
What is little disturbing is the re-
crudescence of the discussion of pos
sible American leadership in Europe
and specifically in the direction of dis
armament. Leadership in Europe has
been within our grasp for the past Is
years, provided we were prepared to pay
the price. Today the price is double:
Cancellation of allied debts, which
would permit abolition of German repa-
rations and thus perhaps fortify the
present regime in Germany, and a
guarantee of French security, which
would induce the French to reduce
their army and keep their navy at its
present size. But leadership, just by
the magic of our words and the right
ness Of our principles, is as completely
out of the question now as when Wilson
was in Paris and the price OF his four
teen points was the military guarantee
Of the peace treaties by the United
States.
Copyright, 1901