Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1930-03-23

hurdle ahead, which 1t Is indlSpenSa bic
that he should win. He must be renom-
mated by the Democrats for Governor
Of New York this year and he must be
reelected. II the current Of forces and
the drift OF events should go on until
next November as they have seemed
to go for year past, and If in No
vember Gov. Roosevelt should be re-
elected Governor of New York-partic-
ularly II he should be reelected by q
handsome majority-in that event Gov
Roosevelt would be an extremely for
midable candidate for the Democratic
presidential nomination.
Relation to situation.
To clarity the relation of Gov. Roose-
welt to the situation, it is desirable to
begin with the Republicans Of New York
State. In that State the Republicans
are divided sharply into wet" and
dry" In New York City the Repub-
licans are strongly wet; in upstate
New York the Republicans probably.
are still strongly dry. In the State as
a whole 1t would be difncult to say just
how they are divided. In any event,
ter. The central fact is that the Re-
publicans of New York State as a whole
are divided on prohibition, and the
probable indication seems to be that
this division is headed toward a sharp
conflict
It is announced-certain it is COM
monty believed-that the wet leaders
among the Republicans of New York
State are going to introduce into the
State convention, and push to a con-
cluSion some sort Of resolution that
would attempt to commit the party to
the wet position or at least, to take 1t
away from the dry position. (What Is
here written about the current politics
Of the Republican party in New York
edge of the plans Of the factions; 1t goes
merely on common assumptions, as re-
hected in newspapers and In political
goSsip.)
If the wet leaders of the Republican
party in New York State, such as ex-
Senator James w. Wadsworth and
Nicholas Murray Butler, attempt to
force q showdown within the party on
the prohibition question, the drys GER
tainly win fight back. One faction or
the other viii win; and for the pur-
pose Of what is here discussed, it does
not matter which faction is the victor.
If the vets win, the drys will be sullen, |
and vice versa.
If, In the Republican State conven- |
ton, there is fight to a finish on |
resolution dealing with prohibition, and |
II, thereafter, the convention makes its |
nomination for the governorship, the |
nominee is pretty certain to be either q i
strongly avowed wet or q strongly /
avowed dry. Only that kind of result, |
as rule, can come out Of process In |
fight between two factions.
Thereafter. In the election for COVER
nor, the Republican candidate, whether |
he be wet or whether he be O dry, |
viii be seriously handicapped.
All Of this Is for the purpose Of show
ing that In the election for governor In |
New York State next November the Re-
publicans seem apt to be divided. Con-
Sequently the present Democratic COVER
nor. Franklin Roosevelt, already certain |
70 be renominated by his own party, Is |
very likely to be reelected.
Possibility in November.
If Roosevelt is reelected Governor Of
New York in November, it win be large
ly as result of the cleavage on prohi- |
hibition within the Republican party |
That cleavage viii be the principal /
cause Of Gov. RooSevelt's success. But |
1t will not seem to be. Gov. Roosevelt |
will seem to have been elected by his
own personal strength and by an issue
with which he is identified, an issue i
which consists Of sterner regulation of
waterpower, electrical and other public /
much about prohibition in connection
with Gov. Roosevelt. They win think
OF public utility regulation as his issue,
and viii give comparatively little
thought to whether he is wet or dry.
In politics, such situations Always work
out this way. The facts of 9 given
situation are one thing. The public
conception Of the facts in O heated
campaign are often quite q different
thing. Politicians are able to visualize
how situation win look to the crowd.
Possession Of that ability is what makes
them politicians. Crowd psychology fol-
lows laws quite different from the rules |
Of individual thinking or individual |
emotion. Persons who understand crowd
psychology, who can visualize how the
crowd will react-Such persons become
politicians (sometimes statesmen) or
SuperSalesmen, or great show men, or
country-Store oraclee.
Gov. Roosevelt, II he is reelected In
November. will stand before the country
as having carried the great State of
New York IS q candidate for q second
term on q personal Platforms the
exponent OF new attitude and sterner
on public utilities. At this point, in /
turn, the Democrats all through the |
country, and the country as a whole,
VIII think OF Gov. Roosevelt mainly In |
this same role-as the exponent of a
public utility issue. They will not think |
bitlon; about that they win think very |
little at all.
Consequently, to the dry Democrats of !
the South and West Gov. Roosevelt will |
be more acceptable than any other |
Democratic leader in New York State
or In the Northern and wet wing Of the
party. They will not think much about
the extent to which he is wet or the
extent TO which he Is dry. It viii be-
come easier, in short, to nominate Gov.
Roosevelt than to nominate any other |
Democratic leader from any Northern
wet State. 1t will be easier to nomi-
nate htm-and easier to get for him |
the maximum Democratic vote in the |
dry South and West In the ensuing |
presidential election.
Opinion Of Gov. Roosevelt.
Already Democrats in the South and |
West do not think Of Gov. Roosevelt
mainly in terms Of wetness or dryneSs.
Certainly they do not think Of him as
wet IN the same spirit or to the same
degree that they think of ex-Gov. Smith
as wet. So far as they think at all /
OF Gov. Roosevelt in association with
the prohlbition question, they regard
him as probably in some degree wet, be-
cause otherwise he could not readily
be the governor Of q wet State or the
party leader Of the Democrats in a
State in which the party is overwhelm-
1ngly wet, but vaguely they think Of
Gov. Roosevelt as probably dry In the
personal sense. In all respects Gov.
Roosevelt has before the country an
aroma OF high-mindedness and fine
principle, an impression flowing in part
cut OF his name, out Of his career as
Assistant Secretary of the Navy under
Josephus Daniels In Woodrow Wilson'S