Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-10-13
5,5|O,OIDD AUTO
PRODUCTION MARK
All Time Records Expected to
Be 1929 Record in U. S.
and Canada.

Five and one-half million units is
the approximate production total which
will be attained by the automotive in
dustry in the United States and Canada
in its all-tinne record breaking year of
1929. according to B. H. Cram, presi-
dent of Grams Automotive Reports,
Inc. This figure includes both pas
senger cars and trucks and must be
regarded as a conservative estimate
when the trends of recent years are
placed alongside the outlook for the
remainder of the current year.
1t is easily possible that the industry
will exceed this total. perhaps to the
extent of 100000 units. but it is ex-
tremely unlikely that curtailment in
production made necessary by the de-
cline In sales now being experienced
will result in an output below the above
estimate The basis of this opinion may
be cleaned from perusal of the fol-
lowing analysis.
The year 1929 has witnessed two
dominant factors in operation to keep
production at unprecedented levels dur
ing the first eight months. Principal
of these, of course is the Ford output,
which until two weeks ago was still
mounting steadily from the levels In
effect at the beginning of the year.
Inc OLIlST Is IIlC 1dCb bAAdI
most other producers also have nam
tanned output slightly in excess OF 1923
A Remarkable Factor.
The ability of the market to absorb
Ford's output also has been remark
able factor. Undoubtedly this may be
explained in part by the fact that for
about two years the low-priced car
market was "dieted," so to speak, in
regard to products for consumption.
Chevrolet was the dominant entry in
this field, and while it is well known
that this car undertook to supply the
greater demand created by the absence
Of Ford for some time and his presence
only on q limited scale during the re-
mainder, It is not conceivable that ali
persons in the market for low-priced
car turned to this product to buy.
Many of them waited until Ford would
be in production and once this &C.
Cured many others who owned Chew
rolets switched their choice to the
Model A. Regardless of the causes, 1t
Is fact that Ford sales have increased
steadily since the introduction OF the
Model A and that the increase in out
put schedules consequently has been
Justified.
10 reach a total output off S 500 900
units for the year, the industry has
only to produce slightly in excess OF
1850 900 units during the last four
months. All calculations support the
belief that this amount will be attained
easily. Necessity of conservation. how
ever, becomes more pronounced follow
ing Ford'S announcement at the end
of the first two weeks of September
Of o shift in plant operations from a
six TO Q five day basis, with no change
In daily output. A conservative estt-
mate OF Ford's September output then
Is placed at 100 900 units. Taking into
consideration Ford's policy to shut down
entirely for two weeks in December and
further curtailments which are likely
70 occur, It Is safe to say that output
for the last four months will total
approximately 100000 passenger cars
and trucks.
Decline Ii Expected.
Although complete figures on Septem-
Der production by the other companies
are not available at present, final tabu-
lation is expected to reveal decline
from the August totals. An approx
mate production estimate OF 400, 900
units for September is made for the
entire industry. Figuring the output OF
October, November and December &C
cordingly, a figure of LOTS 600 units is
arrived at, more than covering the
amount necessary to bring the years
total to 5,500,000.
How output during the last four
months probably will shape up may be
ascertained from a study of production
figures in this period during the last
four years. In the last four months
of 1928 a total of 1,364,777 units were
produced, an average of 341 ,194 pee
month This is a considerably larger
figure than that estimated for the cur
rent year. However, an unusual S1tua-
ton existed in the industry at this
time last year. Ford, well under way
in production of the new car, supplied
the industry with an output that
mounted steadily throughout the year.
with the exception of December, when
it declined some 5000 units from the
total of the previous month. The re-
suit was an abnormally heavy tota
for the industry during the last four
months.
The opposite was true during the
last four months of 1927, however
Ford had been shut down entirely most
of the year and was just getting into
production, turning out about 5000 cars
in the last three months. The result
was an output of only 776,666 units for
the industry during the last four
months, an average of 194,l67. In 1926
and 1925, on the other hand, more
normal situation existed and four
month output of 1,206.94O was re-
corded for the former year, an average
of 301, 735 per month, and l,505,972 fol
the latter year, an average of 376,49S
per month.
Therefore, an average of 286,750 units
per month during the last four months
of the current year, necessary to bring
the total output for the period to the
estimated LOIS, 900, appears easily at
tainable. The outlook for the re-
mainder of the year. then, is for con:
tinued decline in sales and gradual
slackening of the production pace. with
a final output figure for 1929 OF $780,