Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-07-28
new HIGH RECORDS
SEEN IN INDUSTRY
Business Cycle Expected to
Run Several Months Longer
Before Completion.
BY EDWARD C. STONE.


Justification for the forecast Of new
showing made during the first six
months, says review b. the Alexander
Hamilton Institute. Total factory OUT
put during this period was the highest
on record, with manufacturers using 1877
per cent more electricity for power than
o year ago. Freight car loadings were
record breaking. New high production
records were made by automobiles. pig
IRON, steel ingots. petroleum, gasoline,
goods rayon, cigarettes and electricity.
Business has apparently several
months of prosperity ahead before this
phase Of the business cycle terminates,
the institute adds. While IL Is probable
that the readjustment period will begin
before the end of 1929. the prospect Is
that 1t will come too late IN the year
to prevent the attainment Of many new
high annual records. In this respect
1925. year 1915 p'0H''''' W NC '"' W
Cycles Run Three Years.
The current business cycle has now
been under way for 10 months, and,
II measured by the length Of the three
previous cycles, is half completed. &C
cording to the Business Conditions
wan
war has covered period Of three years.
In the first business cysle, 19l9-l921, ex-
pansion occurred In 1919, prosperity In
1920 and contraction In 1921. In the
second cycle. 1922-1924, expansion &C.
cured in 1922, prosperity in 1923 and
contraction in 1924. In the third cycle,
192S-1927, expansion occurred in 1923,
prosperity in 1925 and contraction IN
1927. The course of business since 1927
M trend Re
ing the first half of each Of the three
previous cycles. indicating that the
fourth business cycle since the war will
cover three-year period, 192S-1930. Ex-
pansion occurred in 1928; business mas
enioyed prosperity so far IN 1929; con-
traction must follow in 1880 If the cycle
runs true to the form which the course
Of business has repeatedly shown. -,
The business recession OF 1881 snoulo
rroye tn be nothing more serious than
some slackening of business activity
while the surplus accumulation Of goods
produced this year Is being consumed.
such reimbursement periods occurred IN
1924 and 1927 without serious injury 10
general business, each of these per1oos
being followed by greater periods or
prosperity than ever previously expert
enced. The attainment OF new hlsn
records in the next business cycle seens
0SSuTeQ, UI16 lIlStltupC SoAiSAuN'NS'
Bond Revival Also Forecast.
Earlv revival and decided improve
,,ent in the investment bond market Is
predicted by Lawrence Stern. neao Oh
the firm of Lawrence stern q Co;
investment bankers OF Chicago ana
New York. Although Mr.. stern De
lieves that a broad public interest," IN
STOCKS, evidenced by the long continued
huIl market. will probably continue, ne
IL confident and optimistic as TO tne
future demand for high-grade invest
ment bonds. s MORO
in,nortart bond houses" said Mr.. stern.
"the belief seems to be practicaily
unanimous that security dealers VINO
cease irving to sell bonds and concen-
trate on stocks will flnd such poiicy
shortsiehted in the long run ana tnat
oh-rrade bonds will always constitute
a major factor in the securities market.
thousands Of new investors nav
y,eer1 created BY the great public interest,"
In the stock market, and the situation
If A large majority Of these investors
calls for at least a certain proportion
of high-grade bonds In their invest
Nnent lists
Labcring Man Biggest Customer
Secretary of Labor James J. Davis has
written an introduction for the newly
published book by George II: Phelps.
HOur Biggest Customer" in which the
cabinet oficial praises the authors pro.
found insight into some OF the most
important economic problems OF the DAY.
Mr., Phelps asserts that the laborlng
man is not only our biggest producer
but our biggest customer as well. For
economic reasons he advocates more
employment, higher wages and the fve-
day week. He states that labor con.
stitutes SO per cent of our total market
and the more liberal the attitude taken
toward labor the more merchandise
labor can purchase. ..
Mr.. Phelps is an expert on advertls-
fng. but says he has written this book,
outside his own business field, to get
business men to obtain more facts about
industry and act to prevent depressions
and better stabilize business prosperity.
The book, published by Horace Live
right. contains 81 chapters and per-
hsps the best chapter in it Is Firing at
Fffty." The author bitterly condemns
CORPORATIONS which let out steady, able
bodied, experienced, highly paid en-
ployes at that age. 1t Is not the policy
pursued by Westinghouse Electric and
the PENNSYLVANIA Railroad and 1t cannot
be said that such companies are failures,