Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-01-07
SECOND HALF YEAR
IS HELD UNCERTAIN
Some Experts Think Rapid
Trade Progress Due to
Come to Halt.
BY KENNETH S. VAN STRUM.

NEW YORK, January 6.-The annual
forecasts for the new year by business
leaders appeared last week. After
reading them, however, it Is difficult to
determine the average viewpoint on the
future. Most business leaders are as
usual decidedly optimistic, but dis
counting undue optimism 1t appears
that while there is little doubt that bust
ness will continue good for the first
quarter or first half of the year. the
second half is the cause of some uncer-
tainty.
This is not to say that they expect
complete reversal of the present pros
porous condition, but merely that many
are inclined to believe that such rapid
business progress as we are now ex-
periencing may come to halt after the
middle of the year. The opinion is
widely held that an abatement Of spec
ulation in stocks would be beneficial to
business.
Advances on High Money.
Last week, in typical contrary style,
the stock market advanced as long as
money rates were high, but showed
signs of hesitation as soon as call rates
began to fall. On Monday and We'd
nesday, with call money between 10 per
cent and IL per cent, stocks advanced
sharply, with the heaviest trading since
December 10. During the latter part
of the week. however, even though
money fell to per cent, the market
refused to go higher, although the VOL
ume of trading each day was over S.
900, 1000 shares.
on Thursday and Friday both in
d,lstrial and railroad stocks reached the
old high levels prevailing before the
December break and they met heavy
resistance to their advance. During
November and early December the mar
ket tried unsuccessfully for three weeks
to advance above the levels just now
regained, and 1t is to be expected that
heavy selling will again set in at this
point which may prevent their break
ing through.
Only future developments can show
whether there Is sufficient buying pow
or now to send prices higher, but with
stocks at their former highs the market
is especially liable to suffer from any
DEVELOPMENT which can be construed as
unfavorable.
It is such sharp increases in brokers
loans as occurred last week that are
being frowned upon by banking and
business interests, and it Is widely be-
lteved that if they continue at their
present pace the reserve banks Will take
further steps to prevent the flow OF
credit into securities. The immediate
future of stock prices seems to depend
great deal upon the attitude OF the
reserve banks toward brokers loan ex-
pansion.
An Electrical Week.
ONLY a few groups of stocks featured
last week. The electrical industry with
General Electric and Westinghouse, and
the radio and photograph group repre-
sented by Radio Corporation, Victor
holster. Columbia Graphone lead one
section of the list while the coppers, one
of the principal beneficiaries OF pros
perity in electricity, lead in another
section.
Last week there was additional strik-
ing evidence of the advancing fortunes
of the copper industry, when domeStlc
copper went to 1871 cents right on the
heels of last weeks advance from Is
to 16h cents. Copper producers are
expecting II cents by the end OF this
week.
Another important development OF the
week was the increase in crude petrol
cum production to 2,581,050 barrels
daily, which is very close to the record
peak in July, 1927, of 1851, 100. The
threat of overproduction is having a de-
pressing effect upon oil stocks.
Prices on the curb and the local stock
exchange showed a tendency to move
with those on the stock exchange, ris-
ing the day before, but coming to halt
toward the end of the week. The gen.
eral level of stocks in Boston, Phila-
delphia, San Francisco, Baltimore and
Cincinnati is somewhat below the No
vember peaks, while in st. Louis, De-
troit, Cleveland and Chicago, they are
near or above their old highs.
Copyright. 1890