Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-07-27
POPULATION OF j, s,
TO Be 1S7,0OO,oD)
BY YEAR OF 1000
Study in Growth of Cities
Reveals Enormous Gains
During Present Century.
DECENTRALIZATION GIVEN
AS AVENUE FOR RELIEF
Readjustments Will Forestall All
Possible Annoyances, Says
Report.
by THOMAS r. HENRY.

ms picture OF the future Is the re-
suit of study of the relation of land
to population in the United States by
e committee headed by Frederic A. De-
lano, president of the American Civic
Association, and DR.. John M. Cries,
former head of the division of build
ing and housing of the Department of
Commerce. The future relationships
were calculated in the light of present
trends of population. The report, in
book form is published by the Mount
Pleasant Press of Harrisburg, Pa.
1t was prepared under the general
direction of the joint committee on
bases of sound land policy, organized
by the Federated Societies on Planning
and Parks, composed of the American
Civic Association, American Institute of
Park Executives, American Park So
ciety, National Conference on City
Planning and the National Conference
on State Parks.
So far as land is concerned, the COM
mittee found, there is little need to
worry about overpopulation. The coun-
try has 1908, 100000 acres, of which
973000,00 offer possibilities for crops.
Only 1865, 100000 acres were in crop
land in 1919 and there was production
surplus.
15O,O0O,OOO by 1850.
"The population of the continental
United States" says the report. lis eX-
pected to reach 150,00O000 by 1850 and
1877, 900 900 around the year 1000. On
the basis of these estimates, station
airy population will not be reached until
some time in the next century, perhaps
at 225000,000.
This population. the committee in
dicates, may be distributed even more
unevenly than it is at present. In 1920
the density was only 35.5 per square
mile for the country as whole, but
there were five States with more than
200 to the square mile, headed by
Rhode Island with 566, Massachusetts
with 479. New Jersey with 420, Con-
necticut with 286, New York with 217,
and Pennsylvania with 1874. The pres
ent trend is toward still greater
density in those areas which may be
Offset by factors now unknown.
If the present trend to the cities was
unchecked. the committee points out,
there would be no rural population at
all in the year 1000. This would be
an impoSSibility and the committee
provides tentative estimate of an IL
per cent increase compared with 154
per cent increase for the urban popula-
ton. The population of cities of more
than $500 and less than $4,000 in 1920
is expected to increase 220 per cent.
crease in the number of such cities
rather than an actual growth of those
now in existence.
New York Presents Problem.
A striking glimpse into the future is
afforded in the case of New York, pre-
Stunning that it continues to grow at
its present rate, The metropolitan dis
trict of 5,528 square miles, covering
more than 400 communities, was taken
as the basis. The heart of this area
Is the five boroughS of New York City
and adjacent New jersey which in
1920 contained a population of $780,
900 out of 100000 for the entire dis
trict. In this inner area the popula-
whereas the average density for the
entire region is barely one-twelfth of
this.
This population, it has been estimated
conservatively, may reach 100000 by
the year 2100 and based on present
trends this would mean for the inner
area population of $4,000 per square
mile. This means that each person
will have, as his share of dwelling space,
streets, stores, parks, offices and public
buildings, space 10 by SO feet, barely
large enough to turn around in, while
the actual density in some parts of the
inner area will greatly exceed this. APP
parently the only way OF avoiding this
condition is by decentralization proc
esS so that the population will be dis
tributed more evenly through the 5,528
square mile metropolitan district. This,
1t is predicted, may result from the
growth of cities within cities with
neighborhood stores and theaterS sup
plying almost all possible needs and
lifting the greater part Of the burden
from the central districts. The point
will be reached when the population
concentration is uncomfortable and this
will operate, through mounting prop
erty values, to drive Industries and many
Offices into the outskirts. The future
population prospects must be kept in
can be left for sufficient parks, golf
courses, etc.
A Continuous City.
The report points to the possibility of
q narrow strip of land along the Allan
tic seaboard becoming by 1000 AID. an
almost continuous city from Portland,
Our urban populations in the past"
the committee reports. have grown
without much direction and control.
Like sheep, the excess rural population
and the small town youths have sought
the metropolitan centers. But the in
creasing economic freedom which is CIV
ing leisure to large numbers Of city
jewellers is developing new wants and
the desire for larger cultural opportu-
mites. In the past many city dwellers
have accepted the results of uncontrolled
and unScientific distribution of popula-
ton in commercial and residential dis
tricts as the inevitable price they must
pay for enjoying certain metropolitan
advantages. When they find that scien-
tific planning can mitigate many of the
discomforts Of city living, they will de-
mand better planning.
within urban regions We may expect
TO see vast improvement In the dis
trtbution of population. Unless the
great urban regions take particular care
to avoid the evils of excessive congeS-
ton of population and traffic, they will
find their populations slipping away to
other urban regions which have not yet
reached the acme of congestion discom-
fort"
Farm Life TO Change.
While the farm population may be
expected to increase very little, the
committee points out, the nature of rural
life will undergo some striking changes.
For some years both the number OF
farms and the area under cultivation
has decreased, yet improved methods
have brought a continual increase in
actual production, leaving surplus
which is one of the causes Of financial
distress. Great improvements are pos
sible by further utilization of the scien-
tific knowledge at hand today-such as
a is per cent increase in production
of live stock by selecting better ami
mails. Changes in diet, allowing the
increased use of canned goods and the
saving of food by increased refrigera-
ton alone could provide for ,00O
persons. More productive crops on tine