Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-12-22
AUTOMOBILE SALES
EXPECTED TO HOLD
Cram Reports Volume OIL
Business in New Year
Should Be Normal.

No extensive diminution of national
purchase power and normal sales con-
ditions in the automobile market are
salient factors evidenced in an analysis
of the dealer outlook for 1890, accord
ing to B. H. Cram. president Of Grams
Automotive Reports, Inc.
Past experience and observation pro-
vide the ground for predicting the ex-
istence of these factors, Mr.. Cram de-
clares. 1t is his conviction that the
item of most Importance to the dealer
outside of purely local conditions Is the
situation relating to the national mar
ket for motor cars in 1880. The coun-
try has in the past few weeks under
gone a certain revision in its financial
status. A national panic has been
averted and the resultant changes in
public business, in the opinion of bust
ness leaders, will eventually place the
country on more sound economic
basis.
Credit Conditions Are Easier.
Probably the greatest advantage that
has been derived from the recent stock
market crash is the reduction in specu-
lation, with an accompanying easing of
credit conditions. Whether the credit
situation prior to November placed the
country in a dangerous position Is
subject that limited space will not per-
NIT Mr.. Cram to go into. However,
real or imaginary. the easing of money
has gained one important end-namely,
that of removing threat of stringency
in some parts of the country, particu-
larly the agricultural districts. AS a
result, 1880 will open with plenty of
money available in all parts of the
United States. and neither agricultural
nor industrial interests will suffer from
an inadequacy of funds.
This would imply that the basis for
national purchasing power can be con-
sidered sound. With the automotive
industry one of the most sensitive lines
of business to purchasing power. the
outlook from that quarter Is distinctly
favorable.
Sales to Be Affected Slightly.
No doubt the stock market collapse,
with It's accompanying losses to thou
sands OF investors, will affect automo-
bile sales. However. the cancellations
following the crash were not as numer-
GUS nor as widespread as early indica-
tons led Mr.. Cram to believe. No
doubt the remainder of the Winter will
be slow as far as many commodities
are concerned. but 1t is doubtful If this
condition will be so widespread as to
materially affect automobile sales.
To offset any such condition, pur-
chasing power in other lines will be
materially increased. With the inau-
guration Of President Hoover's pro-
gram, in which he has been supported
by many of the companies leading ex-
ecutives, many lines of business which
might otherwise be expected to be slow
d ring the Winter months will be
thus reducing unemploy-
ment and providing extensive markets
for the more basic commodities.
Optimism is rapidly returning. and
1t is highly probable that the Winter
and Spring months will comprise a
period OF economic recovery with all
lines OF business on the upgrade, which
may be considered as a highly stimu-
lating condition.
Normal Volume Is Expected.
Granted, then, that purchasing power
will not be extensively diminished. it
remains to be seen just what part the
automotlve industry will have In the
national picture for the coming wear.
Certainly normal sales condition can
be expected. and a normal sales con-
dition undoubtedly means a produc-
ton of about 100000 motor cars and
trucks. The replacement market will
be as large in 1880 as 1t was in 1929.
~ AuICSK VI 1dCC, the resale market
Will probably exceed that of the current
year, due to the growing obsolesence Of |
the model "T'' Ford. This should re-
suit in another good year from q sales |
standpoint for the manufacturers and |
dealers Of low-priced cars, and with the |
!oW-priced division of the industry |
forming the backbone of the automo- !
bile business it is possible to see
of demand which will ex-
tend into both the medium and high
priced car groups.
In fact the average automobile !
dealer should sell in 1880 approximately
as many cars as he has sold In 1929
IL is possible, however, that because
business In general is going through a
period OF recovery the sale of these
cars Will not reach the peak of its
volume as early in the year as 1t has
under more normal conditions. While
The first quarter of the year may pro-
ceed rather slowly, automobile sales
should gather momentum as the weeks
pass; and as has been the case in other
years when similar conditions prevailed,
ne secondary peak, coming in the third
quarter OF the year, should reach a
favorable height.
D
Contracts let for motor buildings in
1923 numbered 1869 with a valuation
u Sl49, 1876, TOO according to the Dis