Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-10-13

lIdHCc Whatever on any support IrOu
the British fleet in such a contingency.
Along with this conception goes the
fixed determination not alone to op-
pose all efforts to abolish the SUBJ
marine, but also to demand q tonnage
in undersea boats at least as consic-
cradle as that asked at Washington.
And again one must recall that this
insistence upon submarine tonnage was
the breaking point in the 1922 con-
ference.
AS far as Italy is concerned 1t gees
without saying that she will never agree
TO any treaty that does not assure her
mathematical equality with France.
Nominally Italy is prepared to agree to
any ratio France is prepared to accept
but actually the Italians are quite as
unwilling as the French to accept the
Washington ratio that gives to each the
naval status of third-class power.
In point Of fact it may well be ques-
toned whether France or Italy will
now accept in cruisers and ratio less
than that of the Japanese. Both ma
lions regard the battleship as obsolete
both assented to the Washington ratio
in this craft because they were at the
moment financially incapable of build
ing big ships, and both were, at that
time anxious to placate American feel
ing so far as was possible, since both
countries hoped for favorable debt
settlement, If not for cancellation.
Angry With United States.
But at the present time the French
are angry both with us and with the
British. The debt settlement, the Mel
lon-Berenger treaty, which recently
passed the French Chamber by an In
significant majority, provoked q bitter
resentment. The French feel that they
were badly treated; they have no rea-
son for looking forward to any future
favors and no incentive to assist Presi-
dent Hoover in carrying through a prof.
ect he obviously cherishes.
In the case of Britain the grievance
is even more recent. The course of
Snowden at the Paris conference.
which ended in the adoption of the
Young plan, has left rancors that seem
to gain rather than lose in intensity
with the passing weeks. Moreover, the
final French conclusion has been that
British Labor is anti-French.
The majority of the French people
thus see in Macdonald and his party a
dangerous enemy. They are in about
the same mood that they were In re-
spect of Lloyd George and his coalition
Washington conference. Since q sue
cessful conference would certainly add
to Macdonald's prestige and probably
insure long lease Of power, the French
would naturally be tempted TO do what
they could to prevent any such result.
Fascism Hates Labor.
And here Italian feeling runs along
with French. Labor has been q savage
and unreStrained critic Of Fascism and
of Mussolini. Whereas Chamberlain.
~ T.nww~ "a aTs~
to Mussoftnt-as he was to- nh even
greater extent with Brandt IL beyond
question that Italy has little to expect
from Macdonald or his foreign Secre-
tary, Arthur Henderson. Proof Of this
was disclosed at The Hague, where the
largest sufferer by the British course
was Italy. Italy, like France, therefore,
would like to see Labor go out Of ONCE.
In recent weeks I have been reading
the French newspapers with care, and
1t is plain that French opinion gener-
ally Is extremely disturbed. There Is
the feeling that Labor Is deliberately
throwing over the Anglo-French entente
and seeking to replace it by an Anglo
Saxon partnership. And the basis of
the partnership is naval agreement,
which to the French mind can easily
be stretched into an agreement to police
and thus to dominate the seas.
II BRAND is in power when the Lon
don conference meets, his situation will
be difhcult, and, oddly. like the situa-
ton in which he found himself at the
moment of the Washington conference.
Then his home front was crumbling
under the attacks of Poincare, who de-
nounced him for continuous yielding to
Lloyd George. He came to Washington
believing that America and Britain we're
going to fight, and that he would gain
enormous prestige by supporting us
against the British. But we and the
British agreed. France was left out In
the cold, and the treatment France had
or thought she had at Washington
deeply Inundated all Frenchmen.
AS q consequence BRAND fell while
the Washington conference was still In
session and Poincare took office, pledged
in advance to fight Lloyd George and
resist Anglo-Saxon policies. And Pom
cares policy led in no long time to the
occupation of the Ruhr, but in an even
briefer time to the collapse Of coalition
and the disappearance Of Lloyd George.
BRAND May BE Displaced.
At the moment Brands position is
again bad. He had to share with Pom
care the onus of the American debt set
Element. He had later to assume all the
responsibility for The Hague surrender
to Snowden Finally the majority in
the present Chamber of Deputies is far
more Nationalistie than BRAND and is
becoming Enthusiastically FESTIVE. It Is
even possible that 1t may turn BRAND
out before the London conference and
send some one, possibly Tardieu, who
will take a much less conciliatory course
than BRAND.
Finally it is necessary to reckon with
the fact that today France is in q very
different situation from that she occu-
pied in 1922, when she was bank
rupt, still burdened with the task of
restoring her devastated areas and fac
ing the possibility of German evasion
OF all reparations. Today France has
rebuilt her ruins. reordered her finances,
Is more prosperous than she was before
the World War, has no unemployment,
is lending money in the world markets
and seriously handicapping the British
by steadily drawing gold from London
to Paris.
Politically she has nothing to hope
from a Labor government, financially
she has nothing to fear either from the
United States or Great Britain, and
against both countries she has present
grievances.
In view Of these circumstances, 7
venture the forecast that unless both
MIR. Hoover and Mr.. Macdonald ind
ways to placate French opinion between
now and January there is at least grave
danger that what happened at wash
ngton IN 1922 will be repeated Ia Lon
ion in 1880.
rich ModscoI School.