Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-11-10
BY WILLIAM HARD.

The fate of the tariff bill is GER
tainly yelled now in thick miStS of
futurity, but there are certain sur
misses and calculations current about
1t in Washington.
In the first place, 1t is not thought
that the President would be much dis
comfited by the bills total defeat.
Its defeat would involve the disap-
pearance for long time to come of the
debenture plan for export subsidies
which the bill now contains and which
the President strongly disapproves. Its
defeat also, and further by throwing us
back upon the present existing tariff
law Of 1922. would preserve for the
President the flexible provisions" I'M
der presidential control, which the
President desires, but which the new bill
destroys. On both points, which are
regarded by the President as major
points, far exceeding In importance all
details Of individual tariff duties, the
defeat Of the new bill would give to
the President no pain or gloom.
Moreover, on the rates themselves, the
President is in position to be perfect
ly willing to allow the coalition between
the Democrats and the insurgent Rec
publicans in the Senate to take the full
responsibility which it. has assumed.
Most members of the coalition repre-
sent agrarian constituencies. In so far
as there has been any great positive
demand for new tariff duties at this
time, 1t has come from the farmers and
the farmers organizations. The farmers
produced the present new tariff desire
and impulse, and then the industrial
lists came along into it, extremely
largely as an afterthought and in order
simply not to be left out II any new
meals were going to be served at the
tariff table.
That is the history Of the matter; and
that is the psychology Of the matter
still; and II the new bill Is taken 70
the rotunda between the Senate and
the House of Representatives and there
solemnly burned to ashes. the mass of
the big industrialists of the United
States will go out to golf without a
unburdened by any fears regarding the
prospects of their corporations.
Some small industrialists, indeed, like
the merchant pig iron manufacturers
on the Atlantic Coast, many of whom
have been driven out Of business by i'm
ported pig iron. have been interested In
the new bill. Now, however, the meas
ure is wen on its way toward being
thoroughly extinguiShed.
That situation is perfectly illustrated
by the pig iron instance. The biggest
steel companies make virtually no pig
iron for sale. They consume their pig
iron themselves for their own steel Pig
iron for sale is made almost exclusively
by so-called small independents" The
tariff commission reported that the diff
ference between the cost of production
Of pig iron at home and the cost of
production abroad was several dollars
The tarin duty on pig iron in the pres
ent existing law of 1922 plus q so per
cent increase on it as recommended by
the tariff commission and granted by
President Coolidge Is $l.l2I2. The
coalition in the Senate has put the duty
back to rs cents.
Accordingly the existing law Is better
for the small pig iron induStrialists than
is the new bill in It's present form. They
will. therefore, net weep at all If in its
present form it is done to death. Their
sentiment is increasingly shared by all
the other small industrialists Of the
country as the coalition in the Senate
continues to give to industrial item after
industrial item lower tariff duty than
the statistics of their cases would seem
to suggest. The moment is rapidly COM
ing. and is perhaps even now here, when
approximately the whole Of the Ameri-
can industrial community, which in
general and on the average Is extremely
prosperous, will be completely disin-
terested in the bill and when the Sem
ators from the industrial States-like
Senator Moses OF New HampShire-will
be actually eager to vote against 1t.
With the farmers the color of the oc-
casion Is different. The farmers have
not been so prosperous. The leaders OF
their organizations have inspired them
with large hope of tariff relief" They
have been promised "the home market"
on many agricultural commodities In
order tn coInnensate them as far as NAV
be, for the low prices they get on many
products which they export. In nu-
merous agricultural communities. ac-
cordingly, the expectation of tariff bene-
fits is vivid and insiStent.
with that fact in mind, 1t becomes
possible for the President to sit back
and let the coalition, without any out
cry from him, follow either one of the
only two courses that are open to 1t.
The first course is to vote against
the bill on It's final passage in the Sem
ate. That will kill the bill. The per-
sons who will fancy themselves worst
hurt will be the producers OF certain
agricultural commodities such as milk,
cream, butter, casin, fiaxseed. beans,
potatoes. tomatoes, figs, cattle, wool
and so on. The members of the coali-
ton will then go back to their consti-
tuents and explain the outcome as best
thev may. They may explain 1t per-
fectly successfully. They cannot explain
1t. however, In any such way as to at
tach to the President any responsibility
for 1t. The chance that they may fol-
low this course therefore leaves the
President unconcerned.
Their second conceivable course is
after they have rewritten the bill In the
Senate to vote for It IN sufiicient NUM-
bers to pass 1t. That will send it 70