The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1929-07-15
DROP EXPECTED
IN HOG SUPPLY
FOR NEXT YEAR
Current Holdings Reported
Below Large Stocks of
Last July.
81 Times special

N INfN Nbtf'ff
WASHINGTON, July 15.-Sup-
plies of hogs for slaughter during
the next twelve months are ex-
pected to be somewhat less than
during the last year, but # farm
ers react as usual supplies may in
crease in the latter part of 1880. &C
cording to the hog outlook report
issued today by the bureau Of agri-
cultural economics. United States
department of agriculture.
Current storage holdings are re-
ported as smaller than the usually
large stocks in July a year ago, and
no marked changes in either do
nestle or foreign demand is antici-
pated for the next eighteen months.
If producers respond to the situa-
ton as they have to similar condi-
tons in the past. the bureau says,
an increase in hog production prob
ably will occur in 1880 and a pro-
duction in 1880 equal to that of 1928
probably would bring a price high
enough to result in about an aver
age corn-hog ratio.
Hog prices, according to the re-
port. still are on the upward swing
OF the cycle which had its beginning
in 1928. Prices throughout the year
to date have been we'll above those
prevailing during the corresponding
period last year.
Average Price Is S9.77
The average price of hogs
slaughtered under federal inspection
in the seven months ended MAJ,
1929. was SOFT, compared with $50
for hogs slaughtered in the same
period q year ago. Although early
last winter receded almost to the
low levels Of the winter OF 1928,
prices started upward about mid
December and advanced more than
IS 100 pounds by the latter part
OF March. A slight recession from
then until the end of May was fol-
lowed by the usual summer rise
winch Is now unOeE Way.
Last year many hogs which ordi
rarily would have been marketed in
the summer were held over until
fall, because Of scarcity and high
price Of corn. This resulted in mar
ket supplies being smaller than
usual during July, August and the
first half of September. and rela
lively large from mid-September
until early December.
This unusual distribution OF sup
plies caused prices to advance rap
IDLY during the first part Of this
period and then to decline in tha
fall earlier and more than usual.
Feed conditions and other fac
tors favor a more normal distrlbu-
ton of market supplies during the
remainder of the present crop year.
The price rise now in progress is
likely to continue over longer
period than it did last summer.
Decline to Be Gradual
1.-THE price decline which comes in
the late fall following the summer
rise is expected to be more gradual
and smaller than that which oc-
CURED last fall since marketings are
expected to be more normally dis
tribUted. Prospective supply and de-
mand conditions point to a higher
average hog price for next winter
and spring than the s977 of the past
winter and spring.
The spread in prices between the
winter low and spring high viii
probably be less marked than a year
earlier
If hog producers react to the sit
uation as they have responded to
similar conditions in the past, theta
probably will be an increase in far
rowings next spring. This, togethef
with prospective European increases
will tend to start prices on the
downward swing of the cycle during
the latter part of 1880.
AN increase in the spring pig
crop in the corn belt states in 1880
equivalent to the decrease Of 4 per
cent in the spring crop Of 1929
would be in fair proportion to aver
age corn production, and probably
bring a price high enough to result
in at least an average ratio to the
price of corn, but not high enough
to encourage any undue expansion
of production in areas outside Of the
corn belt