Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-09-08
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

JIl6 QlIlSlDlS, GWlIl dBGIlCl6S VI
travel by air, and of faster travel than
man has known before. Many persons
within the circles where airplanes and
dtrigibles are promoted and manu-
featured take it for granted that travel
by air will become as common as travel
by automobile now is. They think, in
short, the airplane will duplicate the
record the automobile has already
made-a record incredible If it had not
taken place before the eyes of millions
OF persons not yet middle aged.
The assumption about the future of
the airplane was fortified last week by
Statistician of the American Auto
mobile Association, who pointed out a
parallel deemed by him to be signifi-
cant. The number of airplanes in
active service in America this year, 1929,
Is 8,064. AS it happens. this is almost
exactly the number of automobiles that
were in America in the year 1900. In 20
years the number of automobiles has
become roughly rs 900. 900. The point
of this comparison is a question of an
implied prediction in the form Of a
QueStion-will there be, 20 years from
now, IN 1858, as many as Is, 0000 900 air
planes? Will the experience of riding in
an airplane become as familiar as that
Of riding in an automobile?
A Negative Answer.
One would hesitate to answer No"
The usual course of new wonders is to
defy prediction. They jeer not at
human credulouSneSS, but at incredu-
lousness. In the year 1900, when there
were 5000 automobiles in America,
who believed the number would ever
become 25,000,000. If there was such
person, and If he ever put his expecta-
ton in writing, it would be interesting
to dig the document up.
There were men who believed the
automobiles would increase; many bust
ness men built factories in that expec-
tation. Though doubt if any banker
in 1900 was willing to loan money to
anything so fantastic as an automobile
factory; if any banker did, his name
also ought to be resurrected for per-
petuation) But the men who built
automobile factories looked forward, as
rule, to a mere luxury business and
to nothing like what has come to be. If
there was a man in America in 1900,
whether automobile manufacturer, sci
enlist or crazy prophet, who believed
America would ever have as many as
100000 automobiles his name ought
to be sought out and the National Auto
mobile Chamber of Commerce should
erect monument to his faith.
Predictions that airplane development
will parallel the automobile are subject
to at least one historical qualification.
To say the number of airplanes today
equals the number of automobiles in
1900 sounds impressive, and is impress
sive. But there is an important distinc-
ton in the rate of development. Auto
mobiles reached 5000 within seven years
Of the time the first one was seen in
America. And it has taken IS years for
the first alrplane flown by the Wright
brothers, December II, 1909 to grow
to 5000.
The Old Is Displaced.
Belief in or doubt of the ultimate
immensely of any innovation is largely
a matter of temperament. The news
grows rather by its own momentum
than through belief in 1t on the part
of any individuals. Because of this the
changes that innovations bring to civil
tzation are largely implanted and I'M
directed. The old Is displaced before we
realize 1t. These diSplacementS of the
old-old objects as well as old ways and
old standards-are going on about us
with furious rapidity. And the ultimate
results. whatever they are to be. are
seemingly inevitable An old object,
such as horse and buggy or one
room country schoolhouse, Is familiar
to those who grew up with them, and
continues to be taken for granted by
them. Presently it disappears and ex-
lists only in the memories of the aging.
The younger generation regards the
thing as in the same class with candles
or bows and arrows.
Apparently the one-room country
echoolhouse is as doomed as the COW
cred wagon. In few communities eff
forts are made to hold on to it. In
Lancaster County, Pa, last week, school
began in Ephrata Township. It opened
~ e 49, =
becoming familiar, a consolidated"
school, one building for the entire dis
trict. The innovation is resisted by
some parents and 40 pupils who on the
opening day duly appeared at their
abandoned one-room school, played
about for while and went home. It
was pathetically like birds lowering
about a destroyed nest.
Will Go 10 Court.
The parents, according to the Phila-
delphia Ledger, will 60 to court about
it. However this one case turns out,
the one-room country school as an in
stitution seems doomed in every part
of the country. It was an institution
for farmers and Is being overwhelmed
in the revolution through which the
farm is going because Of many reasons.
The passing of the one-room school,
of course, does not necessarily imply
QeCd ON Tie IdTH1S anu IL IlOG CAUSED
by that. The consolidated school Is
more compatible with improved farm
conditions than with worse. The dis
placement of the one-rOom school Is
most directly traceable to good roads
and to BUSES which can gather UP the
pupils over wide area.
What is here written does not aim to
make generalization, either optimistic
or pessimiStic, about the meaning Of
these changes, their effect on American
civilization or on the individuals in
volved. All that is intended is to call
attention to something dramatic going
on before our eyes. It is a pity to miss
the quality Of 1t, just because 1t happens
in our own time. Books will be written
one day about the one-room school and
its disappearance and future readers
will know 1t was romantic. Already,
when it was in its prime and familiar to
all, the one-room district school has
been the subject of as many poems.
songs and mellow passages In books
as any topic the present writer can
recall.
Farming an Issue.
Among changes under way before our
goes to the very heart of that occupa-
ton. There are many books about 1t
and speeches innumerable. A good
many Of them, especially the speeches
in Congress, have been listened to by
the writer of this article. Nearly all
are well meant, but most Of them are
unconvincing.
Is there any one able to predict what
: will be the condition Of American FARM
ing 20 years from now? To consider
few essential questions:
Will the average American farm be
larger or will 1t remain roughly the
same size? Is farming going to 60 the
way OF big business, into big units of
production? or shall we continue to
have the farm as we now know it?