The Bismarck tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, N.D.) 1916-current, 1929-12-24
Out of Slow Start, Industry
and Trade May Expect Squirt
Four Sets Of Factors Seen by Colonel 1. P. Ayres as He Forecasts
Coming Economic Trend in United States; Prospects for
New Year Cheerful; Hoover Efforts a Big Help

~ -
r. Ayrcs. vice president Of tho
Cleveland Trust company OF
Cleveland. Ohio, is one Of the
nations most noted business stat
ticians and economic experts. In.
the following article. written for
this newspaper and NEA Service
he forecasts business conditions
that may be expected in 1880.
BY LEONARD r. AYRES
Vice President. The Cleveland Trust
Company
written for The Tribune and NEA
ScrviccD
Four sets of conditions appear to
be Of leading Importance as factors
helping to indicate the kind Of bust
ness which we may expect IN 1890.
The first Is that industry has been
slowing down. and notably SO In the
production Of automobiles. and iron
and steel and In building construc-
ton. The second Is that there has
been a great fall In stock prices. The
third is that interest rates have sud-
denly become low, instead Of being
high: and the fourth is that the adj
ministration at Washington has or
ganized country wide efforts to sus-
tain business activity, and to avoid
unemployment.
The present prospects are that 1880
will be a year In which general BUSH
ness. and particularly industrial pro-
ductiOn. will make a slow start. but
will move forward with quickening
pace rs summer and autumn come on.
Building construction In 1880 will
almost surely be stimulated by the
combined effects Of the lowered in
terest rates. and the cooperative ef-
forts organized by the administration.
The trend Of security prices IN 1880
promises to be a rising ono, and II
this turns out to be the casc the bad
effects Of the recent crash Of stock
prices will be progressively decreased.
Moreover. an advancing stock market
has important stimulating effects on
general business.
It does not seem probable that inn
portant difficulties will develop as q
result Of installmcnt selling.
Prospects for 1880
Are Called Cheerful
All In all. the general prospects for
business In 1890 are fairly cheerful.
and we are warranted In being rea-
S0nably optimistic regarding them.
Speculation comes out Of business
slowly. hut 1t comes out OF the stock
market rapidly. In 1929 speculation
has come out of the stock market In
4 hurry. but by and large We have
no great amount Of speculation to
come out Of business. We have had
no competition for labor. no advance
In commodity prices. no scarcity Of
business credit. mo- building up Of Tn
yentoric5. and no car shortage.
These orc the reasons why 1t does
not seem probable that the bear mar
kct OF 1920 will be followed by any
slowing down Of business at all CON-
parable with the old-timc business
depresSionS.
The ono previous bear market for
stocks which was not followed by .
depression came in the val period
in 1916 and 1917. when business. in
stead Of being Over-speculative. was
unable to keep UP with the extra
ordinary demands OF the war. It
was not q typical period, but 1t does
at least furnish n example of q
bear market not followed by busi-
ness depressio-.
Business Is Sa-.AA
DESPITE Stock Crash
The fact Is that business and bank
Ing In 1929 r. almost invincibly
strong. Their conditions do not in
In the pre-war days.
In the bear markets Of the closing
years Of the last century. and the
carly ones Of this, the Spectator did
not worry because the ticker tape
was late. He worried because his
broker was likely to fail. as many Of
them did, He worried because his
bank Wa likely to close Its doors, as
many AZ them did. He worried be-
cause u his bank did not fail. it did
refuse 10 lend him any money, and
often declined to let him withdraw
ever his own funds that he had on
deposit.
Finally he worried because the
rompsnics in which he had stock
wee likely to 60 into insolvency.
'Ihe SPECTATOR OF today has only u
uUrry about prices and margins. but
n the old days. when tho Spectator
gas in business Is well as "a the
stock market. he had some real null
eiple vorring to do.
Eptdemtcs II measles occur every
tWos years. according to statisticSAns
Usually IN March and April.