Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-02-17


IA wide economic dislocation of the
4 a war, Is coming over the hill
from the poorhouse.
The year 1928 saw a continuation OF
the recovery tendency which has been
noted every year since 1920. The out
look for 1929 according to Depart
ment of Agriculture survey, is for a
better year, on the whole, than was ex-
perienced in 1928
The departments composite survey,
embodying the estimates of crop ex-
perts in each commodity division as
well as of specialists in marketing and
finance, forecasts firmer market de-
mands both at home and abroad, a
slightly better gross income for the
combined producers, greater stability in
price levels on both the buying and
the selling side and slight but some
what general tendency toward decreas-
ing costs The lower production costs
are contingent upon a continuance Of
the present trend toward wider appli-
cation of machinery and scientific
methods to cultivation and toward more
efficient business practices in marketing
and financial operations.
Based on Economic Factors.
The Government forecast is based en-
tirely upon the purely economic factors
on the sunrise horizon, neglecting COM
pletely those broader contributions to
agricultural rehabilitation now conf
IDENTIFY expected from legislation in the
prospective extra session of the new
Congress in early Spring.
The 1929 gross income of all agri-
cultural producers, from both live stock
and crops, is forecast at about $12, $780,
900, 900, an increase of approximately
$3.50, 100000 over the gross for 1928
But there are fewer farms and fewer
farmers this year. Thousands of un-
profitable operations have been aban-
doned or consolidated under large-scale
production methods. The same forces
are at work in agriculture as in rail-
roads and manufacturing plants Well
managed farm: have reduced operating
personnel through The application of
machinery. The same gross income for
the industry as a whole this year would
represent larger income for the aver
age farmer The prospective gross for
1929, therefore, is in fact larger in the
individual farmers average than is at
once suggested by mere comparison of
the combined income figures for the two
years
But gross income is hardly more than
the beginning of the story The antici-
pated 1929 gross represents an increase
of approximately 33 per cent over the
gross income of all farmers in 1921
the first full crop after the postwar
deflation. And In 1921, according to
the Bureau of the Census, there were
approximately 100000 more people en-
gagged in the industry than at present.
In 1921 the combined fruits of the
harvest were barely two-thirds of the
anticipated 1929 income, and in 1921
the pie had to be cut into 100000 more
pieces.
Purchasing Power Contrasted.
Even more impressive is the contrast
between 1921 and 1929 on the basis of
crop-dollar purchasing power In 1921
the amount of farm produce which
was worth a dollar in 1914 purchasing
power returned the farmer but SO cents
in 1921 purchasing power Today, on
| the same basis Of values, the purchas-
ing power Of the crop dollar Is only a
| fraction under SO cents.
This index of the relative purchasing
! power Of farm products, incidentally,
tells In perhaps Its most 'succinct form