Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-02-04
debt ANNU|T|ESCUT
or NPER CENT SEEN
Reparations Payments Under
Dawes Plan Likely to
Be SIashed.
BY LELAND STOWE.

BY Gable to The Star.
PARIS, February with the first
business session of the second Dawes
committee now only seven days away,
the general lines of the experts coming
battle to fix the amount of reparations
Germany must pay become increasingly
clear.
First of all, it may be stated that
although no one here would be so rash
as to. gamble on, the definite amount
to which the experts are likely to slice
Germany's obligations, nevertheless,
these figures. within q reasonable mar
gin, are envisaged by many of Europe's
soundest financial minds.
After numerous discussions with Ger
tain well qualified leaders, some Amer
described as independent financial
observers, the consensus of their ex-
pectations of the experts results offers
figures which desire-arld are already
receiving attention.
Considerable Reduction Expected.
There is a wide belief in this qualified
circle of opinion that the Dawes STAN
dard annuities will be reduced by the
experts from the present $500, ,000, 600
marks f$595, SOC, ,000) to an approximate
figure probably between a fiat 2,000,-
000,0 900 marks and 2,250,000, 900.
That is to say, Germany will prob
ably receive reduction in the neigh
borhood of 20 per cent-in any case a
reduction Of between 250,000,000 and
rIyc Iv
AS to the number of years over which
the payments will run, these same OBJ
servers are much more reserved. They
know that the French, and perhaps the
other allies, will demand annuitieS con-
tinuing over the whole period of the
United States war debt settlements, and
also that the Germans will contest
such a proposal.
Bond Mobilizing to Be Figured.
Beyond that, the question of mobili-
zation of reparations bonds is likely to
be a determining factor relative to the
number of annuitieS which the experts
will recommend. Therefore, cautious
business men relegate the period of the
annuities to the limbo of out-and-out
speculation.
The French and Belgians are vir-
tually certain at the beginning to de-
mand continuation of the full present
annuity of 2,500,000,00 marks. Ger
tain French officials in recent days
have made it clear that France regards
the Dawes plans "index of prosperity
provision as of the highest Importance.
From this it may be deduced that
the French experts will argue that the
extra amounts which Germany might
be forced to pay few years hence, II
| the plan were unchanged, should be
| taken into full consideration and the
waving by the allies Of the index
clause in itself should be considered In
Berlin as a great concession.
| Haggling Expected at Session.
| Opposed to this thesis, mary observ-
ers are prepared TO see the German
| delegates demand sweeping slash In
! the annuities to such an almost impos-
sible figure as / ,000, ,000, 900 or ! 500 900,
! 600 marks. The early sessions 5evoteo
| to the amount of the annuities. there
fore, will assume the proportions OF olo'
fashioned barter, and one quite as
shrewdly drawn as between the pro-
verbal Yankee and Scot.
With these widely separated genera
figures laid down the haggling viii
commence The experts, as well as al
European financiers, viii know that the
/
promise will be exceedingly painful ano
will often approach the point OF despair
1t is here that observers declare the
really great role of the American ex'
perts will be influential. AS the only
neutrals it will be the trump card OF
Owen D. Young and j. P. Morgan u
demand concessions first from one Sidt
and then from the other.
1t has been shrewdly pointed out thai
whereas neither the Germans nor the
French will want to accept the re-
sponsibility for agreeing to figure be-
low what their nationalists regard a:
essential, they may agree to such &
figure in the end IL they can say, fol
home consumption, that it was thu
Americans who demanded it,
i Another reason for observance favor
ing some middle amount for the an
nuity, or approximately 2,100, 900 ,00(
marks $500, ,220 ,000), is that it has beer
estimated that that sum would give
England a share sufficient for what she
needs to meet her debts to the United
States. ="
-