Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-04-26
WEATHER CYCLE
! RULE DISCUSSED
Far More Rigid System of
Analysis Needed, Dr..
Marvin Says.
BY THOMAS r. HENRY.

Ok 1nOMsAN HI. nENh1s
The reality of alleged weather cycles
may be established by applying a far
more rigid system of mathematical
analysis to observations, DR.. Charles F.
Marvin, director of the Weather Blu
reau, told the meteorological section OF
the American Geophysical Union this
morning:
Such cycles are the basis of most
systems of long-range weather fore
casting, which are in bad repute with
the Weather Bureau All the alleged
cycles which he has examined, DR..
Marvin said, can be admitted to exist
only by extremely loose Interpretation
of the figures. Admitting that such
cycles may exist, he called upon math-
ematicianS to devise new methods of
analysis of weather data.
DR.. Marvin himself offered one
method applicable in some cases which
be had used in analyzing weather data
over 60 years in an area of approx
mately $4,000 square miles centsring in
Washington. This showed an appar-
emily regular decline intrainfall and in
crease in temperature, which he was not
able to connect with any physical
causes. While he might have made
some accurate predictions from his
curves, DR.. Marvin said, he had not
done so because he was not sure that
they were valid.
It would be necessary, he said, to
have figures for at least a century to
reach any conclusions. Apparently pro-
gressivS changes, it was pointed out,
might not At into cycles at all because
of the effect on the weather of such
temporary actors as deforestation.
drainage and building of cities.
Reports Progress of Study.
Progress in the study of the effect OF
changes in solar radiation on weather
was reported by Prof H. H. Kimball of
the Weather Bureau. If Washington,
he said, had continually cloudleSs sky
the temperature through the year would
approach that Of a Southern desert. If
It was continually covered with snow
the average temperature would be about
Is degrees lower washington, he point
ed out, never has known below-zero
weather without snow on the ground.
Weather Bureau measurements, he
said, have shown that the sun Is pour
ing on the earth approximately 33,000,-
GEO horsepower hours of energy per
square mile. Z
This has been the case throughout
history, but the earth has been able to
conserve only a small part of this In
the form of coal and oil. If the day
comes when coal and oil are nearly
exhausted, Prof. Kimbsll said. 1t is
probable that engineers will find some
way of Harvesting this solar energy
directly, although no way Of doing this
is now in sight. Il
How the earth happens to have an
atmosphere still is subject of specula-
ton, said Prot William j. Humphreys
of the Weather Bureau He explained
the origin of the earth as due to some
larger star passing within a few hum
cred million miles of the sun approx
mately 1000 ,0000 years ago and by
its gravitational pull tearing away a
paft Of the suns substance. This, he
said, was gaseous at the time and
doubtless included all the elements now
found on earth. They are supposed
to have condensed almost at once,
forming the present planets
1t is possible, he said, that in this
process of condensation there was an
extra supply Of oxygen and other gases
such as make upsthe atmosphere which
had no chance ito combine with other
elements. SO they formed In an atnos-
pfere about the surface Of the new
planet. On the other hand, he pointed
out, there may have been no air at first
since everything may have been in solid
combinations. Through billions of years
the gases may have escaped from their
interior prisons through volcanoes,
fumeroles and cracks in the earths
surface, forming the air.
1t Is conceivable, he said that life
may have started in the form of simple
plants without any oxygen. Once the
start was made the plants would begin
Transforming carbon dioxide into oxygen,
paving the way for higher forms Of life.
Thus far no oxygen has been found
coming from volcanoes and hot springs
Even the water. Prof, Humphreys said,
may not have been present from the be-
ginning outside the earth's crust, but
have been created from oxygen and
hydrogen in the interior, escaping to
the surface through cracks. II is doubt
full, he said, that all the water which
now comes from hot springs seeped
down originally from the surface.
Prof. Humphreys also pointed TO the
possibility Of the elements which make
UP the atmosphere being formed in
empty space between the stars and be-
ing added to the planetary atmospheres,
process indicated by measurements of
cosnic rays, which are presumably
created In the process of atomic forma-
ton.
StiII q Mystery.
The presence of an element so heavy
as oxygen In the upper atmosphere, he
said, is a mystery, but it may not be
the same form of oyyOer aS that found