Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-11-04
TARIFF SUPPORT
PROVES PUzzLING.
Leaders Agree on Passage,
but Question of Votes Re-
mains Dark Secret.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

Progressive Republicans under the
leadership of Senator Borah and Sena-
tor Norris are saying with a confidence
that there will ultimately be a tariff
bill that will be agreeable to both houses
and that both houses will pass ". The
progressive Republicans allies, the DEM
ocratS, through some, though not all
OF their leaders, are saying the same
thing.
Democratic Senator Mcclellan Of
Tennessee, for example, says the bill
will ultimately pass both houses, and
the Democratic national committee
gives his statement to the public. This
Democratic Senator forecasts the
character of the ultimate bill that he
says will pass. He describes it as carry
ing largely increased rates on farm
products" and rates on manufactures
considerably reduced below those re-
ported by the Senate finance COM
mittee."
He also says the bill will carry the
kind OF flexible provision adopted by
the Democratic progressive coalition
taking the power over the flexible
provision from the President and giving
1t to Congress" He says finally that the
ultimate bill will contain the farmers
debenture" plan for an export bonus
on farm crops.
May Vote Against Bill.
The kind of bill thus described is in
substance the bill as being written by
the Democratic progressive coalition
1t is a bill perfectly and particularly
satisfactory to the progressive Repub-
Ecans. At this point, however, the
Democratic Senator adds the most
significant sentence of ALL He says IT
shall in all proba bility vote against It,"
That raises precisely the situation
that will be very much to the front
within a few weeks. 1t is the situation
which will constitute the heart of the
tariff chaos in its final phase. The ques-
Con Is. II Senator Mcclellan does not
vote for the bill; and If even small
number Of his fellow Democrats do not
vote for it. who is going to pass 1t?
Considering the two houses as q
whole, bill. II it passes at all, must be
passed either by regular Republican
votes or by Democratic votes. The num-
Der Of progressive Republicans in the
Senate Is only IS out of q total Of 95.
Their number in the House is, so far,
only about 20 or 80 out of 435. The bill
prophesied by Senator Mcclellan would
be satisfactory TO them, but they can
only pass 1t or any other bill by the
votes OF one or the other Of the two
regular parties
The leader of the Senate Republicans
Is Senator David Reed of Pennsylvania.
Senator Reed has made no comment on
the suppoSit1tious ultimate bill described
by Senator Mcclellan. Senator Reed.
however, has on several occasions made
statements justifying the inference that
he would vote against this kind of bill
Senator Reed has said further that the
whole OF the Republican delegation from
PpnnSVlVa untIia oiv1eN
bill. If Senator Reed and his regular
Republicans would vote against it, and
II Senator Mcclellan and even a small
number Of his fellow Democrats would
vote against it, who, then, is going to
pass 1t? Therein lies one of the several
kinds Of possible deadlock inherent in
the situation.
Senator McKeller's venture in proph-
ecy raises precisely the problem that
Is going to veX the Democrats seriously
before they come to the end of their
union with the Progressive Republicans.
The bill in its final form is going to be
a protective tariff bill. 1t is going to be
very highly protective as to farm prod
ucts and reasonably protective as to
industry. If the bill were written solely
by Senator Borah 1t would be that. II
the bill were written wholly by the
regular Republicans it would be at
least that Even the bill forecast by
Senator Mcclellan is that. II the bill
Democrats vote for 1t? Senator Nc
Kellar, for one, says he will not.
Coalitions Margin Is Narrow.
Inasmuch as the majority COM
manded by, the Democratic-P Progressive
coalition is very narrow, they can bare
ly afford to lose even one vote on any
roll call whatever.
To picture this tariff situation thus
Is not to clarity it. The truth Is the
situation is extremely chaotic. The
political and economic motives entering
into 1t are complex and many OF them
run counter to each other. The political
motives especially become more press
ing and more embarrassing and mu-
tually destructive as the situation APP
proaches its climax. Not all the pos
Sible outcomes could be stated In q
whole page of this paper
There is one possible outcome which
merely happens to be appropriate to
mention in connection with the point
Senator McKellar'S statement raises.
1t is at least q faint possibility that the
Progressive Republicans, after taking
advantage of the Democrats help in
the early stages of the bill, may in the
later stages, run home to mother and
effect reconciliation with the regular
Republicans. The Progressive Repub-
licanS, with their Democratic allies, are
writing in the Senate q bill which to
an extreme degree runs In the Progress
Sive Republicans favor. With such a
bill accomplished in the Senate, the
Progressive Republicans could make
enough concessions to the regular Re-
publicans in the House to result In q
compromise which both Republican
factions could support. To envisage this
as probable outcome would be much
too much. 1t is merely one of several
possibilities in a situation so complex
as to be really fantastic.