Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-06-16
FARM PRODUCTION
POPULATION
Rapid Growth Lessons Need
for Expansion of Area,
Economists Say.

Farm production in the United States
has increased so per cent more rapidly
than population since the World War.
This increase has been more rapid than
at any time since 1900. and probably
since 1890. Moreover, 1t has been ac-
complished despite a decrease in the
number Of farms and in farm popula-
ton, q decrease in the number of farm
animals and a slight decrease in crop
acreage. Data for 1927 and 1928 indi-
cate production is still increasing at q
rate more rapid than the increase In
population. These facts, together with
evidence that population growth is
slowing up, are cited by DR.. o. e. Baker,
economist in the United States Depart
ment Of Agriculture, in support Of his
belief that the welfare of agriculture
neceSsitateS careful consideration of
any proposals involving an increase in
crop acreage.
1t should not be necessary he be-
lieves, to expand the net farm area of
the Nation during the next decade
Nearly all the requisite increase In our
crop acreage" he says, could be OBJ
tanned by cultivating land now idle in
farms. In addition to this idle land,
our farms contain more than 100, 600. 900
acres OF plowable pasture, as well as
large areas that could be cropped If
cleared or drained After 1910 the
country will still have available some
300, 100000 acres of potentially cultiva-
pie iand an area greater than the total
cuiEiVated land at present. Less than
han OF this amount would need to be
ADDED to the existing crop area in order
70 supply population of 10000 .OOO."
Overexpansion Couses Depression.
Overexpansion of the country's crop
area, says DR.. Baker is one of the fun
oamental causes OF the present srricul-
Cural depression, but excessive stimula,-
ZION of agricultural settlement during
tne last half century was more or less
eXcusable. No one, DR. Baker remarks.
could have foreseen the coming of the
automobne and the tractor, which has
released . large amount of land for
merry required to feed horses and
mules. nor the increasing production of
mix and meat per unit OF feed con-
stunned by the farm animals. Nor did
any one realize the influence of shifts
from less productive to more productive
crops per acre and from less productive
10 more productive classes of farm ami
mails. Moreover, he says, prior TO the
World War no adequate evidence exist
GU Va bAAc AdPAu dPpTOdCn OF a SUaIlOn-
airy population in the United States.
Facts relating to the trend of produce
ton, the trend of consumption and the
trend OF population growth form the
basis of DR.. Bakers analysis of the
longtime agricultural outlook. From a
combined acreage of crops and pastur-
age that has remained practically sta
tionary since the war, agricultural pro-
duction in the United States from 1922
to 1925 was 1875 per cent greater than
from 1917 to 1921. In production per
capita of the population the increase
was about . per cent.
Increased use OF automobiles and
tractors in agriculture from January l,
1920, to January /, 1925, released from
S 1000 900 to 100000 acres of crop
land previously required to feed horses
and mules. From 1918 to 1928 the
amount of crop land thus released
amounted to at least 15,000,-
600 acres. This land is now used TO
feed meat and milk animals or to grow
cotton.
Cites Trend Of Consumption.
Turning to consumption. DR.. Baker
finds additional evidence that caution
should be exercised In increasing the
area of land in cultivation. At present
the per capita consumption Of beef, veal
and eggs Is about the same as at the
Of the century. Per capita
of mutton, lamb and
is much less. Consumption of
pork per capita Is about 10 per cent
greater and Of milk about IL per cent
greater. Continuation Of the indicated
trend toward a greater per capita con-
sumption of milk and pork, and les
sened consumption Of mutton, lamb,
beef and veal, would reduce the amount
of land required to feed n given popu-
lation, for the hog and the dairy cow
produce more human food per unit OF
feed consumed than do other farm
animals.
Consumption Of farm products de-
ponds, of course. on the aggregate OF
the population. as well as upon its per
capita requirements. 1t was formerly
taken practically for granted that
growth of population In the United
States would eventually press upon the
Of the land supply. In re-
cent years, however. StatisticianS have
shown that the United States, and
also the countries of Northwestern
Europe. are approaching stationary
population. 1t Is calculated that within
q few decades the United States prob
ably will be dependent upon immigra-
ton for its increase in population, and
that stationary population will be at
tanned in from so to rs years at some
where between 175,0oo,000 and 2oo,-
o00, 900.
Since 1920 the birth rate in the
United States has declined rapidly, and
q rise in the death rate Is expected soon
because the population will include an
increasing proportion of people in the
older age groups. Since 1915. when the
registration area became sufficiently
large to constitute a fair sample of the
United States, the birth rate has de-
clined by nearly births per 1000
people, or about 40 per cent. This de-
clining birth rate in the United States"
says DR.. Baker, appears to be asso-
ciated with the country's increasing
prosperity and per capita wealth. In