Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-12-28
AUTOS CALLED KEY
IN INDUSTRIAL JAM
Economist BIames Regular
Annual Shutdown for
Unemployment.
Special Dispatch to The star.

Special Dispatch to The star
CLEVELAND, December % (N.A.NA).
THE automobile industry is the key
log in the unemployment jam and a
long step toward Stabilizing employ
ment would be taken If automobile
manufacturers would produce one
twelfth their annual output in each
OF the IL months and abolish annual
style changes" said Col. Leonard p.
Ayres, nationally known economist and
vice president Of the Cleveland Trust
Co., today
He was commenting on Senator
Couzens' address to the Michigan Manu-
facturdrs' Association in which the
Senator stated unless industry stabilized
employment, Government interference
is inevitable.
Packard Company in Accord.
The colonels suggestion that the au-
tomotive industry spread it's produc-
ton evenly over the IL months of the
year Is in accord with the policy of the
Packard Motor Car Co., as announced by
Alvan Macauley, president of the Ma
tional Automobile Chamber of Com
merce and president and general man.
ager of the Packard Co. Mr.. Macauley,
in commenting on Senator Couzens'
spread of production would go far
toward stabilizing wages.
Col. AyreS, In agreeing with Mr..
Macauley in this respect, emphasized
the Importance of the aHtomotiVe in
duStry to the welfare of other leading
national industries.
1.-THE annual slowing down of the
automobile industry in the early Winter
months is probably the greatest single
cause of seasonal unemployment in
American industry" he said, and then
went on to explain his position in de-
tail:
Seen as Huge Business"
THE making of automobiles is huge
| business. and a most volatile one. Its
rate of output during the Spring months
| Is frequently twice as great as that of
December or January, and the swing
from high to low In this year of 1923
has not been far from four to one.
THE industry employs hundreds of
| thousands of workers, and in addition
| it Is the most important customer of a
long list of other industries. 1t uses
more iron and steel than any other In
dustry, more plate glass, more rubber,
| more lead, more hard wood and more
copper than any other except the cleo
trical industry. It Is claimed that there
are in this country some 1000 factories
and plants outside of the automobile
industry that are primarily dependent
on 1t for the sale of their products.
when the automobile industry slows
down, all these other plants and indus
tries slow down also. The production
of iron and steel is at once sharply re-
duced. Coal output falls off. The
| traffic on the railroads declines, indus
trial profits in many lines are reduced,
and unemployment results in many
parts of the country and in occupations
that do not, at first though, appear to
| have any essential connection with the
automobile.
One Way to Stabilize.
1.-THE sterilization of unemployment
| in industry is fundamentally dependent
! on leveling off the peaks and filling in
the valleys of industrial production. A
| long step toward doing this would be
persuade automobile makers to produce
something like one-twelfth of their an
nual output in each one of the IL
months, and then to persuade the pur-
chaSers to buy cars in December as they
do in May. Two great obstacles stand
in the way. The one is the seasons
of the year, and the other our interest
In annual model changes.
THE typical American citizen likes to
buy his new car when the sap is run
ming in the trees and not when the
| streets are covered with ice and snow
| The Winter season Is normally a slow
one for new car sales and so the auto
mobile maker naturally takes advantage
of the slack season to shut down his
plant, take inventory and get everv-
thing set up for the production Of the
new models.
Difficulty Intensified.
'This greatly intensif1es a dificulty
| that would loom large in any event.
| The combined effort of the slowing
down for seasons and the slowing down
for styles has become so important to
our whole business life and procedure
that it is worth while to consider what
can be done to improve these condt-
tions.
Probably so automobile executives
could do more to reduce industrial I'M
employment and to smooth out the
business cycle than could all the other
business leaders President Hoover re-
Gently called into conference. More
over, 1t is likely that If these automo-
bile executives should all individually
attempt to reduce the swings of pro-
duction in their own plants they would
find that increased profits would result.
This is not one of the situations where
there is need for a Gar to rule the
| industry or even of one where closer
cooperation is essential. It is one
where the desired results can be OBJ
tanned only by the combined effects of
individual efforts.
THE General Motors Corporation
began in 1922 to publish figures show
| ing each month the sales of cars to
dealers. and the sales of dealers to
customers. The differences between the
two sets Of data show changes in the
inventory carried by the dealers These
figures have proved to be of great value
to the industry, and they serve as a
guide to policy, and a warning against
the danger of production going ahead
of consumers demand. All the other
companies compile similar figures, but
the rest do not make them public.
Suggestion to Other Companies.
"The first and easiest step toward
cutting down dangerous fluctuations in
automobile production would be for the
other companies to follow the lead OF
General Motors and make available
their figures also as a contribution to
the general welfare. This could be done
without revealing to the public the data
for each individual company, If that
seemed the wise course. What is needed
is the use of the data for the industry
as a whole.
"The problem of model changes is
more difficult. If cars were produced at
about the same rate of output through
| 0llt the Vaay tho cocte ~ nk,,-S,.~.