Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-12-29


which is as old as the time when the
Roman oracles foretold the fate of en-
perors and tribal medicine men killed
animals to find out from some faint
variation in the entrails what would be
the outcome of battle or how large
would be the coming crop.
True, to speak of these ancient augu-
ries in the same breath with the eco
nonlic predictions that will be made
next Wednesday would be unfair to the
latter Such prophecies of trade as
emanate from sound sources have the
validity that goes with inference based
on tested data. The comparative dis
appearance of belief in arbitrary signs
Is one of the clearest evidences Of the
gradual ascendancy of intelligence over
superstition.
There is a surprising number of eX-
ceptions to this advance, however. The
late Mrs. Warren Harding, when she
was in the White House, frequently
consulted an astrologist Zone rather
hopes the seer was good hearted enough
to predict less misfortune than actually
attended the unhappy Harding family)
Nevertheless. the predictions of even
those most competent to prophesy, OF
those who hold themselves austerely
down to deductions from facts already
in existence-even such economic for
tune tellers are pretty fallible. ANY
reader of this article can treat himself
to an experience in skepticism by turn
ing back to the newspaper files of last
January and trying to find any
prophecy of that day which said that
during the year 1929 there would occur
the most precipitous and spectacular
stock exchange panic in the history of
the world.
, Many Auguries fo~ 1900.
The writer of this article, for several
reasons associated with his work. has
had an unusually large experience in
resurrecting prophecies and comparing
them with what later came about. Each
presidential year, as the November de-
cision approached, he has looked back
for the predictions preceding previous
elections to examine the grounds upon
which such predictions were based.
About the time of the turn of the CEN
tury-about January /, 1900, that is
the irnaginations of men were greatly
stirred by the passing of the nineteenth
century and the beginning of the twen-
tieth. There was an immense outpour-
ing Of auguary, in books, magazines
and newspapers and from the pulpit.
Nearly every public figure of any con-
sequence in every field was besought to
say what was about to be- The writer
of this article has had occasion to ex-
airline these prophecies with close care.
Then at the beginning of each year
IL has been increasingly the habit of
newspapers and periodicals to print
predictions, especially in the field of
trade. These, too, the present writer
has had occasion to examine.
One deduction from the mass Is that
prediction, when 1t comes from persons
of standing, has been on the whole in
creasingly accurate. 1t has been in
creasingly accurate because the data on
which such prediction can be based
r.
volun1inous
One of the important characteristics
OF the age in which We live is the in
crease Of records and their accuracy.
Greater and greater quantities of rec
ords are kept; they are kept with great
er and greater accuracy, and the agen-
cies by which such records are made
public and diffused throughout the
world have increased rapidly. The con-
sequence is that the world to an extent
never known before acts upon facts,
plots Its course upon facts. More and
more We live up to courses predicted
for us-even dictated for us-by charts
and graphs.
Facts are supplanting emotion as the
motivation of government and of indi-
viduals-and this is decidedly an i'm
portant facet of our modern world.
When Adam Smith wrote his Wealth
Of Nations" there were almost no busi-
ness data in existence Consequently
Smith wrote his treatise largely on as
Sumptions, one of the assumptions be-
ing that he himself was an average
man and that mankind in the mass
would act, under given circumstances,
as Adam Smith would act. We now
know there was error in that assump-
ton. We now have enormous masses
Of data showing how men and groups
OF men have actually acted under
given circumstances. A consequence is
that today a competent statistician-lf
otherwise equally equipped. which is a
weighty ualihcation-should be able to
write treatise on political economy
more sound in some respects than the
Wealth of Nations" that has enjoyed
classic authority for over a century and
half.
None Predicted War.
Nevertheless, in spite of the increase
Of data and the increased possibility of
forecast based on tested data-in spite
OF that. the outstanding impression of
one who has read most of the proph-
ecies Of the last 80 January 1sts-the
strongest impression is the fallibility Of
prophecy. A good many American
regulations could be seriously impaired
could be brought TO the risk of jeering
ny q malicious person who should dig
up these prophecies of /, 5, 10 and Is
years ago and print them in the harsh
light Of the subsequent facts.
No one on any January l has been
able to see what turned out as a rule
to be the most important event of the
ensuing year. No one on January
1903, predicted that within the year the
atrplane would be invented. No Ameri-
can on January /. 1914, predicted thai
the Great War would come or tina,
some three years later we would SEND
some 5000 900 young men to fight in il.
It is safe guess-not a prophecy
that during 1880 something will hap
pen, which none OF the seerS will have
foretold, but which subsequent history
will record as the most important event
of the year.
Within the material world there are
whispers of possible developments which
If they come, might be as revolutionary
as the coming of the automobile. or
underlying both the automobile and the
airplane, the internal combustion en-
gine-possible Inventions as sensational
as the radio or the telephone when il
came. There are whispers about a new
process for making nitrogen artiflcially
and about transmitting electric power
without wires There are intimation!
of a development which, If it shoulG
come, would cause the familiar coal ca
to disappear from railroads-suggestion
that in the near future coal will b.
burned at the mines and the resultin;
agencies for power and heat trans
mitted to the cities by pipe lines
There is story about looking for
ward which every individual nigh
proftably bear in mind as suggesting
I. how little a forecast concerning tn
course of the world i'll general ma!
mean to any one individual. This fan
tasy was first told some time ago b,
sVA n1.1 fV1eF r1AFNRs