Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1929-05-12
BY FRANK #. SIMONDS.

and league operations is for the present
impossible. After several years of eff
fort and at least six sessions the Pre-
paratory Commission has ended by ac-
cepting the double formula that re-
duction is out of the question and limi-
tstion contingent upon national con-
ceptions of security.
This means in plain English that the
continental countries that have con-
script armies are going to continue to
keep them. that all the male popu-
lstions of France, Italy. Poland. Jugo-
slavia. Czechoslovakis, Rumania, Spain
and Belgium are going to be trained
to bear arms in the future as in the
past. that the only real reduction in
armed strength will be the result OF
internal, not external conSidera lions.
It Is true that there have already
been considerable reductions. meas
ured by 1914 standards. The French.
for example, have a one-year period
of service now instead of three years
then, and few nations keep their boys
with the colors more than Is months.
But while this does reduce the num-
Der of men actually carrying guns at
any given moment, it does not reduce
at all the number ready and trained to
bear arms If the standing armies of
Europe are materially smaller than in
1914. the reserves of trained troops are
just as large.
France Has Big Reserve.
Thus viewed in terms of disarma-
n1ent while France has a home force
of 400. 900 and a colonial army of ESQ.,
600. as against a total military estab-
lishment of 800 900 in 1914, France can
put lust as many trained soldiers in
the field now as then. and she is going
on with the training. Italy is in the
NH no
replaced Austrian forces with armies
of their own larger in the aggregate.
The action of the United States,
through Mr. Gibson. in waving our
opposition to conscript armies, has
been sharply criticized both at home
and abroad: but the British. who share
our views. were forced to the same
concession year ago. While we might
have refused to agree to any existing
fact. neither We nor the British had
the smallest chance of persuading the
continental states to change their Sys-
TENS.
The fact is that Europe is not pre-
pared to make any considerable move
toward disarmament and is equally I'M
ready to make any large gesture in the
way of limitation of ornaments All
tries-save Germany, which is under
its own methods-will still be trained
for war and preparations are to be
made in all these countries to use all
the manhood in conflict. The League
has failed utterly to carry real disar-
mement one step forward, not because
the attempt has not been made, but
because Europe still feels insecure.
Germany Hinged by Supporters.
The real disaster resulting from this
failure is discoverable in the fact that
1t leaves Germany potentially the
greatest military power in Europe, sur
rounded by states not only possessing
larger standing armies but having
male population fully trained to make
war. Germany. with about 100000 SOL
diers. the entire establishment allowed
her by the treaties, faces in the camps
of the three nations allied against her,
France, Poland and CZechoslovakia. not
only 100000 troops actually under
arms but reserves at least FIVE times as
great ready to be called up. Even Bel
GUM, also allied to France, has today
q larger standing army than Germany.
Now this question is clearly posed:
How long will 65,000,00 Germans con-
sent to remain helpless and defenseless
In the presence of vastly larger armies
owned by their smaller neighborS? To-
day in case of conflict the Polish army
could go to Berlin. BY the treaty Ger
man frontiers have been stripped of
Notifications and the total German
armed strength is 100000, whereas Po-
land could mobilize 100000 and has
100000 actually with the colors. If
France needs standing army Of 400
900, together with 100000 colonial
troops always at hand, to insure her
security, what must the German feel
y1AaNeearv defiance If bfc 70
more endangered and indefensible from
tiers?
Berlin Accepts Treaty Assertion.
Up to the present moment Germany
has at least non1inally accepted the
treaty assertion that her own enforced
disarmament was no more than the first
step in the general disarmament of Eu-
rope. She could at least vaguely hope
that she was not to be condemned in
definitely to exist an unarmed and open
country surrounded by armed and I'M
friendly states. But as a consequence
of the Geneva decisions she now finds
herself face to face with the prospect
Of helplessness for future not to be
calculated.
For the moment Germany can and
will do little. Her first problem is to
get rid of the armies of occupation,
which are still on the Rhine ANY
effort to nullify the disarmament terms
Of the Treaty of Versailles would in
stantly destroy the chance of early
evacuation. She is also struggling with
the question of reparations and any
military defiance would certainly bring
an end to all possibility of reduced pay
ments. Preparations and evacuation for
the moment exclude the question of ma
tional security.
Building Of Army Seen.
Nevertheless it is clear that repsra-
tons must be fixed and evacuation take
place. Sooner or later Germany will find
herself free to consider her own secur-
ity. And when that moment comes
nothing is more certain than that she
will follow the example of all the states
that surround her and build up her own
national army as they have constructed
theirs. Then, at last. we shall see ?
new Europe. armed as was the old soWn
as was the old with rancors and hatreds.
Nor is it in the least unlikely that we
shall see a new system Of alliances
reproducing these of 1914. which in
slred that the smallest local disturb
ance could set the continent on fire.
But in poker parlance, the last Cen
eva conference establishes the fact that
I,enceforth the European game of arma-
ments is a "table-stake" affair, that
there is no limit" and that every great
and middlesized nation, except Ger
many, will have all hte troops and guns
and forts it desires. The sole yardStock
will be the national legislature, which
holds the purse-strings. The single
possibility of real reduction must come
through the action of the voters in any
given country, who may resolve to re-
duce taxation by limiting their own
armies
Navy solution Possible.