Evening star., 1929-01-04
OPT1MISTS WARNED
TO GUARD BUSINESS
Fear of OverConfidence Felt
in Present Condition of
u. S. Trade.
EY J. c. ROTLE.
;pcc.al Dispatch to The Star.

OpCCsdI OISpdbCil 10 Inc Star.
NEW YORK, January 4-The only
danger apparent in the business situa-
ti0n in this. the first week of the new
year, is that business men will set their
sights SO high that they may oVerShoot
their objectives.
There is an almost universal feeling
Of optimism, except in the sugar pro-
ducing, coal. paper and shipping trades:
There is ample basis for the feeling OF
confidence. Industrial activity moved up
to high speed b5fCre the year was three
days Old Profit margins, as compared
with a year ago, have been broadened
and tabilized. Purchasing power is high
and universal employment Is keeping
it so.
The post holiday improvement has
not been delayed and is proving fully
up to expectations. 1t is 10 to II per
cent higher than year ago. None the
less, there is some danger in the sItua-
tiCn, not from failure of profit margins
to avoid the red ink, but because when
person has his mouth fixed for water
melon, even a good. sound. favored
apple does not appeal to the taste.
Business men may expect SO much that
even q volume of business which ordi-
narily they would welcome may not
satisfy them.
That, however, is matter for the
future, not the immediate present.
Never have the great basic industries,
such as Steel automobiles and building,
started OF an annual period 50 auSpl-
ciouSiy. BY the day after New Year
the steel industry was working at bet
ter than 80 per cent of capacity. The
gain of Is per cent in steel production
in 1923 is likely to be eclipsed.
In the automobile trade the chief
factors hope to add so per cent to the
20 per cent increase in profits which
took place in 1923. Thousands OF new
men are being taken on in the produc-
ton centerS.
The uncompleted construction work
carried over from last year would Keep
the building trades busy 1or months,
but in the last week additional projects
have baen announced in nearly every
section C the country. Building ma
terial prices are strong, but not eX-
cessiVe.
The agricultural implement makers
have large orders still untitled and are
adding to their foreign business at
time when it is sure TO tide over sack
neriod in the factories Work clothing
producers are doing splendidly, and so
are the makers of silk hose. In fact,
for all apparel producers the outlook
is better than year ago. The Ter
tilizer industry has brilliant outlook
and the chemical manufacturers WIN
prosper accordingly. The demand for
dye materials in the cotton goods trace
will be strong, although over-produc-
ton of cotton textiles is not as lmmi-
nent as year ago.
Electrical Equipment.
Volume in the electrical equipment
trades has been SO heavy that makers
have been able to stimulate sales by
Slightly lower prices and still keep up
profit margins. The demand for power
is heavy.
It is anticipated that radio manufac-
turers will make and sell $125, ,0OO.0OO
worth OF sets and equipment In the
next three months. Later, televlsion
and other factors may affect operations.
Railroad equipment manufacturers are
fairly sure of better business.
The spectacular efforts of the Snip
ming Board do not seem likely to put
the American merchant marine on
footing of equality with the foreign
bows, even in the American Cuban
trade. However. shipyards viii shortly
begin to benefit.