Evening star., 1929-04-21
The Reparations Crisis.

Unless something akin to a miracle
ersues during the week end the Paris
Conference on Revision Of the Dawes
Plan is definitely headed for the rocks.
There is every indication that the crash
has already occurred and that the wreck
is even now complete. .....
The Germans propose terms pro-
nounced utterly unacceptable by the
allied and American experts. As both
sides present adamant fronts, an I'm
passe has arrived, which apparently
leaves reparations where they have
been for the ten years since versailles-
controversial issue necessarily fraught
with danger to the amity, II not the
peace, Of Europe. A plenary session Of
the Paris delegates is scheduled for
Monday. Only slender hope fingers that
it will disclose an eleventh-hour posi-
bility Of avoiding q formal and final
failure to reach an agreement.
The figure on which the reparation
experts eventually split was the German
offer Of an average annuity Of $780,
100000 gold marks (about s396. 6.000, ,000)
for thirty-seven years, inclusive Of all
demands on Germany. The present
value Of these payments was estimated
to aggregate, roundly, $4,000, ,000, 600
marks (about S., 900 ,oo0). Of which
the Germans were willing to CONNER
cialize-cover in government bond
issue-16, ,Ooo, ,Ooo, 900 marks $3.50, ,ooo.-
000) at five per cent interest.
This amount deducted from the total
present value would leave 5000. .oo0, 900
marks to pay in annuities Of 1850, ,0o0,-
900, plus 100000, 900 interest, or q total
annuity, including interest, Of 2,450,-
100000 marks (about $685., 8,000, ,0o0) for
five years and only 500 5000 (about
lo2,ooo,o0o) for the remaining thirty
two years.
In other words, the Germans would
get rid of the bulk of their reparations
payments in excess Of the commercial
lied debt in fve years and then would
have only to pay interest Of 500. 0.ooo,o 900
and . sinking fund Of 100000 900 for
the remaining years Of the arrangement
they propose.
The allied demands began with an
annuity of 5o,ooo.0oo marks, gradu-
ally rising to 2,40o, ,ooo, 900, with an aver
age Of about 2,2oo, 600 900 and present
value of Oo,ooo,o0o marks (about
$500 ,ooo, ,ooo).
It is not easy for the lay mind to
grasp these Brobdingnagian figures The
essential thing is that Germany and her
creditors are some $4,000, ,oo0, 900 apart
in their conceptions Of what the Ger
mans are to pay altogether and more
than $15o,0oo,0oo apart in their views
as to how much Germany should pay,
on the average, a year. The experts evi-
IDENTIFY consider those discrepancies un-
susceptible Of compromise. They are
in mood to call quits and acknowledge
their inability to get together.
Apart from the gold billions which
separate them, the debtor and creditor
riegotiators at Paris seem to be at log
gerheads on certain political ques-
tions" raised by Germany. Reichsbank
President DR.. Schacht's memorandum" "
not yet offcially revealed, Is understood
to hint at restoration Of Upper Silesia,
the saar, and even German colonies.
This converts revision Of reparations
at q swoop into revision Of the treaty
of Versailles. At that point the allied
and American experts have baked.
Their stand Is irrefutably justified.