Evening star., 1928-11-04


repercussions in Nebraska in Mime
SOFA and in Wisconsin. all of which
have very considerable German Amer
lean groups. Nebraska has been a
battle-ground. The Democrats have
been aided there by Senator Norris.
Progressive Republican, who recently
came out for Smith. But notwith-
standing the Norris detection the trend
has been toward Hoover and the State
is now considered sure for the Repub-
lican candidate. Hoover may carry it
by $4,000 or more The Hoover drift
in Minnesota, setting in a few weeks
ago, has progressed until that State,
too. Is now claSsed as sure Republican.
Wisconsin. which a month ago was
regarded as special property OF Gov
Smith. is not only doubtful, but is
tending to wind up in the Republican
column. The Democrats have counted
upon the wet sentiment in Milwaukee,
once SO famous for its beer. and upon
the La Follette Progressive Republicans
to give them victory. Wisconsin
whatever it has been, has not been
Democratic, however. Final reports
from Madison and other parts of the
State indicate that the Smith strength
has slipped and is continuing to slip
there.
Pacific Coast for Hoover.
Turning farther West. Smith seems
to have the edge In Montana, while
Wyoming looks sure for Hoover. So
does Utah and Idaho. New Mexico Is
safely for Smith unless there should be
a landslide the other way. and Arizona
is likely to go Hoover. The Democrats
are split in the latter State. Smith,
wet, is not 50 popular there. So far as
the three great Pacific Coast States
are concerned. the Democrats washed
their hands of them long ago. 1t Is
true that there have been efforts to
keep the Smith fires burning, but Cali
fornia. Hoover's home State. and Ore
gon and Washington were eliminated
from the Smith itinerary on his two
Western trips.
If the miracle should happen and a
pro-Smitn wave of sentiment sweep
the country, where might Gov. Smith
most reasonably be expected to obtain
the necessary electoral votes to give
him victory?
Give Smith the 1913 votes counted
sure for him in this table. Add to that
the 81 electoral votes of the States
leaning to him and the two States
listed as doubtful, Missouri and Wis
consin with 81 more votes, and there
is a total of 235 electoral votes. Now
build on that Give Smith Rhode Is
land. S; Connecticut, Z; New Jersey,
IA: Kentucky, 13, or 80 more electoral
votes. and where do you come out?
would have a total of 274 electoral
votes, or eight more than are necessary
to win. There are other States which
the Democratic high command is look
ing to for victory, among them
Nebraska, 8; Minnesota, IL: North
Dakota, 5, and Oklahoma, 10. Join
these with the 274 already listed for
him and Smith will have 800 electoral
votes and Hoover will be sunk.
Smith Victory Not Probable.
The hypothesis upon which such
demonstrations are built takes many
things for granted. It holds on to all
the old Democratic States and places
many strongly Republican States in
the Smith column. Gov. Smiths elec-
ton, with all these States backing him,
or just enough of them, is possible, but
it is not probable.
Gov Smith had against him at the
start the fact that the United States
is and has been for years strongly Re-
publican. His only chance was to hold
all the Democrats and to win over
enough Republican votes to give him
majority. He has against him the
dry end of the prohibition issue, and
there has been nothing to indicate
that the country generally has changed
its position on that issue, despite the
claims of the vets. He has against
him his connection with Tammany
However that may help him in New
York 1t operates against him In all
the other AZ States. Gov. Smith is
Catholic. 1t IS deplorable that a mans
religious belief should be used to k3r
him from public office in this country
Or anywhere. But deplorable or not,
this religious issue has been dragged
into the campaign. 1t has been dragged
in by Democrats as we'll as by Repub-
licans. 1t is there. The Protestants
outnumber the Catholics greatly.
Probably the most potent reason of
all for Republican advantage In this
election Is that, take it by and large,
the United States is far more prosper
Gus than any other nation in the world.
Here and there is hardship. It is the
depression in the textile industries that
gives Smith his chance in Massachu-
sets, the unrest on the farms that gives
him even a semblance of chance to
win in some of the Western States.
But attempts to deny that the American
people as a whole are prosperous and
well employed are laughed out OF court
by the people themselves.
What has Gov Smith to aid him
in his race? He has a winning, warm,
almost compelling personality. Those
about him class him with Lincoln and
Roosevelt in his strong appeal to the
people He has Tammany background.
But the man who challenges his