Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-09-23

~ INCE the presidential candi-
dates of the two major par
ties have started their per-
- sonal campaigns-Hoover In
the East and Smith In the
MidweSt-and party managers have
settled down In dead earnest TO
round up votes, indications are be-
ginning to pile up which show how
some States are leaning In this un-
usual NATIONAL campaign. Core
spondents of The Star in every
State in the Union and its stan
writer's are keeping close tab on
every turn In political sentiment.
They arc reporting what they see
happening around them and pre-
Senting the views of the most expe-
rienced and unbiased political OBJ
servers In each State.
An analysis Of their latest dis
patches shows that 1t Is too early
TO attempt an accurate general fore
cast Of the result. There is still too
much confusion In certain locali-
ties. There Is also plenty Of time
for important changes in sentiment
to take place, especially with Smith
and Hoover appealing In person to
the voters and the voters themselves
becoming more politically con-
sciouS" as the day of the election
draws closer.
X Il
Democratic observers - vigorous
supporters of Smith--do not hesitate
to say, however, that in order to
win Smith must carry not only the
solid South" but practically all Of
the so-called doubtful States in the
Northeast, Central East and the
Midwest. It Is considered possible
for him to do this, else these States
would not be claSsed as doubtful.
All of them and the South would
give him a slight margin above the
266 electoral votes necessary to win.
Most of the doubtful States north
Of the Mason and Dixon line are
normally Republican. They have
been found in the G. o. p. column
many more times than in the DEM
ocratic column since the Civil War.
However. Democratic leaders point
out. victory by small majority,
such as Woodrow Wilson got in 1916,
is none the less q victory.
BY the same method Of simple
mathematical calculation, observers
point out that Hoover could lose
many Of the most doubtful States
and yet win a majority Of votes in
the electoral college.
It is almost an axiom among exc
perienced political observers and
xrVV.;knN~ that <hA MtwA - nj
the enthusiasm which greet presi-
Dental candidates on campaign
tours seldom are evidences of how
a majority of the votes will be cast.
This applies equally to both sides in
this campaign, as it has In others
that have preceded it, according to
the best information obtainable.
Straw votes are becoming more
numerous. Some are apparently
taken with a sincere desire to dis
cover the drift of sentiment. Most
of them thus far show Hoover lead
ing Smith, but they also show a re-
markable turnover of former Re-
publicanS to Smith-larger in some
States than the turnover of former
Democrats to Hoover. 1t Is dificult,
If not Impossible, to draw any con-
illusions from these polls at present.
National managers of both par
ties are hoping for q landslide in
their direction, which would upset
all statistics Of careful observers.
While anything seems possible in
this unprecedented campaign, there
are, so far, no reports indicating
that landslide either way is start
iY1O NTH o1nnkfAvN
six weeks of, however, and the hot
test campaigning yet to come, 1t Is
not too late even for that to hap
pen, according to The Stars CORE
spondents.
X X X X
In New England the most doubt
full States appear to be MaSsachu-
sets and its little neighbor, Rhode
Island. The former has Just held
its nominating primary and the
popular Senator David /. Walsh has
been renominated by the Democrats
to oppose Benjamin Loring Young,
Republican and former Speaker Of
the State House of Representatives
Although this State has gone Demo-
cratic only once since the Civil War,
and that In 1912 when Roosevelt
and Taft split the Republican vote
everywhere, it is causing the Repub-
licans tremendous perturbation this
year, while the Democrats are con-
fldently claiming it for Smith.
The situation Is similar in Rhode
Island and to some extent in Con-
necticut, where, however, the Re-
publican machine is more strongly
intrenched. Maine and Vermont are
conceded to the Republicans. New
Hampshire is uncertain, but the Re-
publlcans are still reported to have
slight advantage there.
The real fight for New York's big
block of IS electoral votes will come
in October toward the end of the
campaign. Smith will be back in his
home State then to conduct his
campaign there in person. Hoover
is scheduled to speak in New York
City before he goes to California to
vote. Both presidential candidates
have spoken and received big ova.