Evening star., 1928-04-07
U. S. Position on Proposed
Reductions Uncertain Fac
tor in European View.
ALLIES ADMIT DECISION
MUST AWAIT ELECTIONS
They Would Be Required to Cut
Reparations in Plan-German
Approval Foreseen.
BY PAUL SCOTT MowRER.

reparationS. together Win 4Colpiete
liberation of Germany from military
occupation and foreign financial con-
troll seems to be entering the realm OF
practical politics.
The plan was discussed by Foreign
Ministers BRAND and Strescmann over
a bottle of wine at a country inn at
Thoiry, near Geneva, a year ago, put
was soon found to be premature ana
dropped. The principal obstacles were
Gerrnanys refusal to approve the issue
to the public of German reparations
bonds without q large reduction and
final fixation of the reparations DEBT
and premature evacuation OF the Rnine-
land; Frances reluctance to reduce the
reuarations total without correspond
inc reduction in her war debts TO Great
Britain and the United States, or TO
eyacuate the Rhineland prematureiy
without further development OF Eu-
ropean security pacts on the Locarno
model. and finally. the refusal OF the
United states to admit the inter-
relationship of reparations and war
debts. The obstacles still remain.
Action Waits on Elections.
Furthermore, it is generally agreed
that nothing definite can really be ac-
complished until after the French ana
German elections this Spring and the
American elections next Fall. Never
tleiess, there Is q new element IN the
situation. This element is to be found
In the present activities of S. Parker
Gilbert. American agent general Tor
separations payments.
Mr.. Gilbert seems TO be sponsoring
the plan for q general settlement and.
unlike Messrs. Levinson and Baruch ana
others who recently advanced similar
plans. Mr.. Gilbert Is not q mere public
spirited individual. but powerful offi-
cial. strategicaIly situated. In close
touch with the American bankers and
Government on the one hand. and with
the European governments on the other.
Recently he visited the United States.
where he had many important confer
ences. After soiourning In Berlin ne
has Just visited London and Paris ana
Is now conferring With Signor Volpi
the Italian finance minister.
The public fruits Of this significant
trip have been two. FIRST was dis
patch to American newspapers outlining
. settlement plan which, while Mr..
Gilbert undoubtedly would disclaim t.
nevertheless resembles suggestions he
has been making confidentially TO
British and French statesmen. Second
was Premier Poincare's latest political
speech, In which for the first time he
declared that with certain reservations
France would accept general settle
ment.
Preparing Public Opinion.
Mr.. Gilbert's immediate aim. In which
he undoubtedly is supported by the
opinion of American bankers and pos
sihly also OF certain persons high In the
American Government, seems to be TO
start q movement Of opinion which will
result, say a year hence. in a definite
agreement Of all the powers concerned.
In order TO understand what for
want OF better name. may be called
the Gilbert plan, 1t Is necessary to re-
view the present situation of repara-
tions and war debts. Reparations stand
theoretically at the fantastic total OF
SO billion dollars, but experts have
established that the present value OF
reparations under the Dawes plan Is
IL billions. However. II Is doubtful II
Germany can pay even this much.
The present value Of the principal
war debt settlements compared with
reparations receipts on the Dawes basis
| may be tabulated as follows:
French and British debts to the
United States. IS. 100000; British
debt TO the United States, $1,000. .000.-
900: Due Great Britain from France,
| italy and Germany, $4,000 900. 600 ,
| French debt to Great Britain and the
United States. $4,000, 100000, due
France from Germany. $4,000, ,000, 900.
Reduction Now Contemplated.
What Mr.. Gilbert seems to propose
| Is reduction OF total reparations to
eight billions, half of this 10 go TO the
United States In full payment OF war
debts and the other half to France and
Belgium for war damages. Great Brit
ain thus would sacrifice 100000, 900
and receive nothing; the United States
would sacrifice one billion and receive
| four. and France and Belgium would
sacrifice over two billions and receive
four. The allies would evacuate the
Rhineland, allied financial control over
Germany would be removed and the
eight billions which Germany as the sole
war debtor would owe would be OBJ
tanned by gradual bond issues sold TO
the worlds investing public. especially
the American public.
Great Britain. II Is believed. would
accept This plhn. lie UHltcu 0Lhtcht ~
II adhcres 10 It's present position is
opposed because 1t refuses further re-
ductions In war debts and refuses TO
admit connection between war debts
and reparations. Germany Is doubtful.
She fears the sale Of reparations bonds
TO the public would make further re-
ductions impossible, and In case Ger
many for any reason should later be
unable 10 meet the payments her inter-
national credit would be ruined, How
ever, Germany would doubtless accept
II she found herself unable 10 obtain q
greater reduction and II evacuation OF
the Rhineland and the removal OF for
eign financial control were assured,
French Position Better.
France Is In less of a hurry for gen.
erai settlement than she was Two years
ago Her finances are resestabliahed
and the Dawes payments are coming In,
She Is now preparing 10 receive from
Germany $3.50 900, 900 q year payments
In kind, partly In coal. fertilizers, dye
stuffs and newsprint, but mostly In the
form OF German cooperation IN vast
French public works, The ports OF
Havre, Cherbourg, Bordeaux. Dunkirk,
Nantes, Marseilie, L'Oriente and La Ro-
chelle are being fe~equipped and mod
eFnized; railroads are being electrified,
water power Ii heing developed, ports,
roads, bridges and railways are being