Evening star., 1928-12-05
MELONS REPORT
M|LDLY~0PTIM|ST|C'
Secretary of Treasury Sees
Bright Indications Ahead
for Business.

for the year ending last June 80, show
ing a decline in volume of 3 per cent
but several brighter indications for this
wear. was presented to Congress today
by Secretary of the Treasury Mellon.
The man who for nearly eight years
has directed the Nations finances and
who now appears about to continue with
the same portfolio under incoming
President Hoover disclosed in his an
nual report not only the gains made,
but the losses suffered. He described
a period which he had informally char
acteri0ed previously as "spotty."
It was not an enthusiastically optl-
nistic review. Many elements OF
strength in the general situation we're
outlined. The weaknesses were told,
But few conclusions as to the prospect
for the future we're INDUCED in. Most
of these conclusions, however, were OPP
timiStic.
Much water has passed under the
bridge since the year described, endlng
.uune 30. five months ago The gray.
haired Secretary himself since that date
has made several campaign speeches
concerning the present prosperity OF
the country. And the annual address
of President Coolidge to the Congress
Yesterday, of vigorously optlmlstlc tone,
even warning against overconhoence
has been interpreted as being based, IN
part at least. on later reports from Nt1e
Secretary of the Treasury.
Activities Reviewed.
But this annual report, which will be
carefully peruSed and given much
weight by students of the economic
situation. comprehensively covers the
business and financial field in the
United States, touching as well on con-
6itions abroad. The actiyltleS OF tne
Treasury Department are reviewed Win
satisfaction by its head. ~,
1.-THE physical volume OF induStrlal
production for the year" Secretary Mel
lon said, was nearly on par with
wear earlier. but soon fell OIL, reacnlng
a low point in November and DECEMBER
127. Recovery took place in January.
and the monthly volume tnereaIter
was sustained about equal 10 the same
months of the preceding year"
The total for the year was per
cent below the prior year. Measured oy
car loadings of freight there" was
( per cent decline, but +laeafly four
fifths of the loss was instne comnlned
loadinps of coal and oresRsN = : =
Automobile production, Tire Secrez
tarv said. experiences maj jor, turn
for the better during the year. Monthly
figures, after adjustment.dor seasonat
tendencies, indicate that the geneIa
decline which beganrins November. 1873,
reached its lowest point In November
and December, 1927. The year enoeo
with June-July prodncttpn nearly 50
per cent above June-July, 1875. al
l2 per cent below the prior year. Steef
insots production followed much the
same course as automobile production
but the total for the year was only =
per cent below the preceding year.
Building Contracts CAIN. =
"BuiIding contracts awarded totaled
"a per cent more in value than during
the prior year, increases being SHOWN
for the contracts classified as reSlden-
tial, public works and utilities and edu-
cational. New high records for speclnc
months were established for October,
the months showing. Che greatest gains
feIl largely in thea last quarter OF Vhe
fiscal year, the resulting stimulus to
business activity was to some extent
postponed to the following year"
Discussing business profitS, the Secre-
tary of the Treasury said that during
the fiscal year 1928 the earnings OF
manufacturing and mining companies,
according to the net income shown IN
the reports of $50 identical corpora
tions exclusive of General Motors ana
United States SteeD, declined about
per cent, as compared with the prior
wear. There were substantial differ
ences." he went on. lin the trend OF
earnings OF the various companies in
cluded in the tabulation. The reduc-
ton IN earnings of manufacturing and
mining companies was due primarily 10
the production and price situation IN
two important industFies-Steel and oil.
Profits of the steel companies declined
about fourth, the decline for the
United States Steel Corporation being
similar to that for the other steel com
panies, while profits for the, oil conn.,
panies were reduced by nearly one-nalI.
Companies in other industrial groups
had in the aggregate an increase Oh 4
per cent over the preceding year. For
this group of companies each quarter,
except the opening quarter of the year.
showed some gain over the correspond
ing period in the preceding year. The
groups of companies showing increases
for the year were those. engaged IN
manufacturing of automobiles and ac-
cessories, food and food products, to-
bacco products, chemicals and ,miscel-
laneous other products, A decline was
shown by the group Of companies pro-
ducing railway equipment, various types
of machinery and miscellaneous metal
Prices at wholesale for all commodi-
ties. the Secretary said, were over 4 pei
cent higher at the end of the fiscal year
than at the beginning This indicator
was used by the Secretary for-explana-
ton of curious factor in the situation
for the year.
Check Payments Increase.
although prices rose over pei
cent" he said, between the beginning
and the end of the year and the phys
clined 3 per cent Tor the whole year
the money value of business transacted
as measured by the volume OF check
paymentS outside New York City wa!
So per cent greater in June and July
1928. than in June and July. 1927, ,anc
n per cent greater for the whole year
This contrast Is accounted for by
greater velocity of deposits and an ex'
pansion of transactions purely financia
in nature. a,,s
tary said, revealed no evidence of {
general decline in consumers buying
power, but a trend toward more direc
marketing" The growth of chair
stores was commented on by Secretar!
Mellon. who said that, with one excep
ton, they showed Larger sales ever!
month than a year ago and each month
making a. new high record"
Export trade, he pointed out, had al
aggregate value in the year of l927-2
of s4.877, 600, 900, which was l8 pc
cent less than in the preceding year
but was larger than In any other yea
since 1920-2r. Imports were shown +
have reached total value Of S4,l46,
100000, a decrease of 25 per cent a
compared with 1926-27.
Agriculture Made Gains.
Agriculture as whole made sub
stantial gains" fatty declared the Sec