Evening star., 1928-05-20
Must Humanity Starve? !
Continued from First pssye.l

Continued from First ptsyel -
In the beginning the race probably
was often at the verge of extinction.
wild beasts, exposure, flood, famine
and pestilence took terrible tolls. There
was less than an even chance tnat
any child born would reach maturity.
| Generations went by with no increase
at all in the total of humanity. Then,
about the middle of the last century,
everything changed. Sanitation, vac
cines, fast transport and vast new 1ooo-
| producing areas reduced the great epl-
| denies and famines This improve
ment has continued rapidly up 10 tne
present. It stu is going on, SO tnat
eventually there may be no excuse loI
| ANYBODY to die under the Biblical span
| of three-score-and-ten.
Sets Maximum Population.
II the increase keeps up at the same
rate another century will see world
population Of about 4,000, 100000 ana
another two centuries a population OF
| 5000, 100000. And this latter hgure Is
| the absolute maximum set by Proi. r.
| T.. Shantz of the University OF IL
linois before the National Academy OF
| Sciences It was, he said afterward, a
/
| idea that the globe actually could sup
port 5000 600 900 people, even with the
enormous advances which the science
of agriculture may be expected 10
make in the next two centuries.
Possibly q number somewhat less tnan
! that might be able to exist with an
extremely low standard of living. Dr.
Shantz. formerly Department OF Agrl-
culture scientist, based his estimate on
each individual obtaining his food from
two acreS-allowing maximum popu-
lation density Of $40 square mile
over all the cultivatable area OF tne
globe. For, Of course, the ultimate
source of all food is land-except for
the small amount that is secured from
the sea in the form Of fish and mol
luSks.
Increase May Slow Down.
Now 200 years is very short time
In the course of history. Some OF tne
great-grandchildreno of persons now nv
ing NAV be alive then. Four or nVe
years ago the D. A. r. had q lew
members whose fathers actually had
served under Washington. Considered
in such a light, the population oenSity
becomes an actual problem OF ule
present. OF course, 1t was brought ou6
poets a population OF 5000 .0OO0 600 or
even of 5000, 100000 in 200 years.
Various forces will enter the situation
and slow down the rate OF increase.
But even II the maximum density Is a
matter of 1000 years 1t still Is q PROB
lem to worry about. All over the world
the standards OF living are increasing,
and when these standards increase
either more land or more productive
land is necessary. The problem OF
maximum population that can exist
with reasonably high standard OF
living is quite different from tnaS OF
an absolute maximum population, con-
suming each day only the absolute
minimum Of food calorieS necessary 10
keep the fires Of life burning.
are hopeless, so far as supporting life
IS concerned. Such Is the great conti-
mental land mass of Antarctica, mostly
covered with perpetual ice, where not
even an insect or a worm can obtain
sustenance. Greenland, even now,
probably is supporting its maximum OF
population. Then, again, there are the
great deserts like the Sahara, wnicn
are almost as hopeless as the Polar re-
rions although o world driven TO des-
perate straits to keep itself alive might
irrigate them.
Vegetation OF the World.
The natural vegetation of the world,
according to the figures Of DIR. Shantz,
can be divided into seven forest types.
covering about $4,000. 900 square miles:
seven grassland types. covering about
$4,000, 900 square miles. and five desert
types, covering 100000 square miles.
Most of the forest land, he said, can
be converted into agricultural land
when necessity demands.
About 14.000. 900 square miles or for
est are capable of yielding crops. About
5000, 900 are capable OF yielding warm
weather crops. This area includes the
great Kongo and Amazon tungles and
the jungles of southern Asia. They
can grow the tropical fruits, rice and
other foodstufTs upon which the rather
scanty population of the tropics sub
sists today. It would be a tremendous
task 70 convert them. This would in
volve not only clearing and draining
the thousands of square miles OF al
most impenetrable brush and riddfng
the countries of insects, but would ne
cessitate a conquest Of tropical diseases.
Approximately 5000, 900 square miles
OF land now forested, DR.. Shantz be-
lieves, would be adaptable for COOL
weather crops such as wheat, oats.
rye. huckwheat. potatoes, apples, ETC.
Great inroads already have been made
into this area.
The high civilizations exist on the
sites OF former temperate and sub
arctic forests. The present area in
cludes large sections Of Canada and
the Northern United States and great
tracts OF Siberia.
VIII BE First 10 Disappear.
They probably viii be the first to
disappear because they happen to be
in the paths OF the white races, with
their high standards Of living and high
cultures to keep up and with natural
aversion 10 intensely hot climates. The
amount of space which a world ap-
preaching It's maximum population can
allow for cold weather forests will be
very small. About 100000 square miles
OF the forest land. when cleared off.
Will be OF use only for grazing, DR..
Shantz estimates.
There remains the $4,000, 900 square
miles OF grassland. such as the North
American prairies. the Argentine PAM
pas, great areas Of Australia and the
Siberian steppeg. Much of this land
already Is utilized for grazing. provid-