Evening star., 1928-04-29
RESULT OF FRENCH VOTE
MAY HIT POINCARE RULE
Ma ajority Parties Fear Premier But
Prefer Not to Have to Bargain
With Him.

a violent END. They also fear de5per.
ately that were they now to take over
the power again the franc might In
stantly Degin to slip. Were this to hap
pen, we're there to be a new crisis,
where would they come out?
AS consequence, the political CAM
paign has been a marvel Of indirection,
Of pussy-footing, of evasion. Since in
France there are not two political
parties, but at least a dozen, the con-
fusion has been the greater. And In
the long run 1t has come down to q
question, not of parties, but Of men,
bers. Every deputy on the Cartel side
has set out to ignore the all-important
question Of Poincare and to get elected
himself
Except for the Socialists, who have
come out in the open, all the Cartel
groups have straddled and "ducked"
Hitherto members of the Chamber
have been chosen. not as with us by
district, but by groups in larger dis
tricts. This year each member will be
chosen separately from single dis
trict. And each member has been
busy with the district trying to arouse
enthusiasm while desperately evading
the real issue.
Socialists Can Demand Price.
In the first turn of the ballot, which
occurs on April %. the process is fair
ly clear. But under the French sys-
tenn, when no candidate has a ma
jority in given district, then there
must be a new election with those
polling the lowest totals eliminated.
Here is where the problem becomes
serious for the candidate. Then the
Cartel candidate must turn to the So
cialiStS in most cases for support, the
socialist having been eliminated. But
in this situation the Socialists can de-
mand their price. And that price win
be the promise 10 turn against Poin-
care
But even when the second election
has taken place the situation viii re-
main obscure. No one can tell what
secret bargains, personal pledges and
private commitments the Deputies have
made to get into Office. No one can
tell, too, what promises their leaders
have made
Thus the acid test will come, not
after the first or second turn in the
balloting, not after all the Deputies have
been chosen, but when Poincare, him.
self, reSigning. as he must. accepts thu
invitation of the President of the French
republic 70 form new ministry based
upon new legislature At that mo-
ment he must send for Herriot, for
Painleye, for the other members Of tho
oIo Garter, VINO perforce entered his
last cabinet
What then viii Herriot do. what viii
Painleve do? Obviously they viii be
guided by the Interpretation they put
upon the election returns. If their
groups have come back with a marked
gain, with proof in an increased poIl
that the country has forgiven or for.
gotten their old failures, then personal
inclination and party pressure will COM
oine TO lead them 10 decline Poincare6
invitation to serve with him and set 70
work to construct new combination
which shall restore the old Cartel
which shah enable them to govern on
their own.
Gain Would Injure Position.
Thus gain Of 20 or 80 seats BY the
Left. by the groups headed by Eerriot,
Painleve and including the Socialists.
would almost certainly have one Of two
consequences; either il would result In
the failure Of Poincare TO form q cab
met at all or he would be allowed 70
form q ministry destined to have but
short lease Of power and restricted to
the simple task Of stabilizing the franc
without delay. Once this had been
ACAAC A4AAS NQl1u
fall and Cartel combination would
come back
On the other hand. were there q
decisive indication Of popular wiz ia
vorable TO Poincare thesis, then there Is
not much doubt that Poincare viii come
back with a relatively long lease Of
power ahead OF him.
On the third eventuaiitv-that Is II
there was little or no change in the
character of the memhership-the sit
uation would continue in its present OBJ
security. Poincare would certainly form
n government and hold once for a con-
siderable period OF time But he would
hold ONCE at the viii Of q Chamber Of
Deputies in majority opposed to him
and enduring him only because Of their
fear OF the consequences Of turning
him out.
Such then Is the batting mystery Of
the French election at the moment
when the French voters went 70 the
polls Moreover. IL is perhaps worth
adding that there is in Paris universal
lack of sll convincing forecast With
equal honesty almost all the politically
wise have affirmed thar they have no
remote notion Of what the results OF the
voting will be and about the same un-
certainty as 20 what will happen after
the votes are actually counted.
sCopyrixht iaSSA