The Redwood gazette. [volume] (Redwood Falls, Minn.) 1873-1940, 1928-02-29
r. M. Green of Kansas State
Agricultural College Gives
View on Hog Situation.


possible to forecast accurately, but
information of the major trends and
probabilities is available and from
it one can obtain a fair idea of what
is likely to happen. This article is
by R. NJ. Green, professor of Agri-
cultural Economics of the Kansas
State Agricultural College, reprinted
from Cappers.
In offering this article to its read
ers, the Gazette feels that it is worthy
of the attention of every hog grower
and may be instrumental in saving
them money.
Little Improvement in hog prices
except that in early spring caused by
seasonal reductions in market re-
ceipts, seems likely before the sum-
mer of 1928 or sometime in 1929.
Many things can happen to change
the present situation but many
things likely to affect the market up
to next July or September are now
partly in evidence at least.
'Hog prices reached their last high
point in June, 1926. Number of hogs
on farms decreased from the high
point of about 6S million January l.,
1928. to close to So million January
l, 1926. Number of hogs on farms
January l, 1927, increased to 52R
million.
"The fall pig crop of 1926, that
would be marketed largely in the
months of April to September, 1927,
inclusive, was 3 per cent larger than
the fall pig crop of 1925. Theoreti-
cally, this increase in pig crop should
have brought total receipts at the
principal markets up to about IL or
10 million head. Actually, receipts
were a little more than 10 million
head.
The spring pig crop of 1927 was
312 per cent larger than that of 1926.
Most of these hogs ordinarily come
to market from about October to
March inclusive. Theoretically, the
312 per cent increase in the spring
pig crop should bring the total six
months receipts up to % to % million
head. On this basis, October and
November, 1927, receipts should have
been about million. Actual receipts
were a little more than 6la million.
"Now comes the Government re-
port as of December l, indicating that
the pig crop for the fall of 1927 is
IL per cent larger than in 1926 in
the Corn Belt, and also II per cent
larger for the United States as a
whole. The Government report in
dictates no reduction in basic supplies
before the spring pig crop of 1928.
Such reduction would effect the mar
ket most from October, 1928, to
March, 1929.
While the course that corn prices
will take during the next few months
is unknown, some facts are evident.
A fairly small corn crop following
small crop is likely to be more effec-
tive in raising prices than if the small
crop were preceded by large crop
and substantial carryover of old corn.
In such years in the past most of the
seasons price advance has come in
the spring, February or March to
May. The situation is helped some
what this year by reduced terminal
supplies, especially in Chicago,
small crop in Chicago territory, and
a more favorable export situation,
especially in the period from the last
of January to the middle of April
when competition from Argentina Is
the least.
Should there be a substantial adj
vance in corn prices in the spring the
effect would be to stimulate heav-
Ter marketing of the fall pig crop
from April to June inclusive and
therefore proportionately lighter re-
ceipts from July to September in
elusive. In 1926 the large corn crop
of 1925, resulting in about u cent
corn at Kansas City from February
to July, resulted in a holding back
of hogs from April to June inclu-
sive and heavier marketing from
July to September inclusive. This
is just the reverse of what now seems
most probable for the spring and
summer of 1923. The course that
corn prices take, however, should be
watched.
January, February and March pric-
es are more frequently up than down
even in years which hog prices for
the year are tending generally down.
ward. In Is such years, January
price was higher than December price
Is times and lower three times. Feb
ruary price was higher than Janu-
airy price IL times and lower seven
times. Likewise, March price was
higher than February price IL times
and lower seven times.
However, when it comes to April,
price has risen three times and de-
clined Is times. This compares with
higher prices 10 times and lower
April prices eight times in 81 years
when hog prices for the year were
tending upward.
''The larger fall pig crop, and the
possibility of advancing corn prices
crowding the April to June market
rather than the July to September
market, weakens price prospects for
the late spring market. In the past,
when hog prices tended downward