Evening star., 1928-09-30
BY FRANK Fl. SIMONDS.

and reparatl lions lnt0 CIle HleTIldCAOIldl
limelight. Nor is it possible to escape
the conclusion that a very considerable
amount of plain. ordinary bluffing Is
| going on alike in Paris, London, Geneva
and even in Berlin.
Despite all the excitement which has
been aroused, first by the interview be-
tween StreSemann and Poincare IN
Paris. then the later interview between
| the German chancellor and BRAND in
| Geneva, next by the two addresses
| these statesmen made to the Geneva
Assembly, and finally by the meeting OF
representatives of the former allies and
| Germany at Geneva, all that has actu-
! ally happened is that two committees
| have been appointed to explore subjects
which do not contain one single hidden
corner or unknown angle.
The explanation of all the hullabaloo
is quite simple In the first place. the
domestic pressure upon the new Ger
man chancellor, who is Socialist. to
/ accomplish something has been terrific.
| He has been assailed by the German
! Nationalists, who owe their defeat In
| the recent German election to the pop
ular belief that no concessions could be
obtained from the allies by cabinet
containing Nationalist members. He
| has likewise been pressed by his follow
ers. who are naturally eager to see their
J
election promises fulfilled.
But of real progress Mueller has been
/ able to make not the smallest bit, for
! the simple reason that he is faced by
certain very definite facts. The French
will not consider premature evacuation
of the Rhineland save as this evacua-
ton is paid for. They mean to stay in
Germany, as the treaty permits them,
until January |. 1885, unless in return
! ot.tYt t11nU
things, the most important of which is
a quittance of their debts to Great Brit
ain and the United States.
Stand of British.
This is the first fact. The second is
that the British are unwilling to con-
sent 10 the reduction of the French
debt TO the British or to assent to any
reduction on German payments save
as these reductions are balanced by
similar reductions of what they have to
paw the United States. And the third
fact is that the United States is not
presently inclined to consider the ques-
ton of any reduction of the debt what
soever.
But something had to be done for
Mueller. If he didn't get some recog-
milton, his cabinet and the whole Lo-
carno conception were compromised in
Germany. On the other hand. some
thing has to be done for BRAND. since.
advocate as he is of conciliation. he
faces a determined public at home.
which demands that he obtain full
value for any concession In their do
mestic plight both Mueller and BRAND
made their speeches at Geneva. which
aroused so much fury. Mueller's in
Paris and Brands in Berlin.
But nothing real can be done until
the United States is prepared to take
clear line. Either We shall consent
to the marketing in the United States
of some $4000.0 100000 German securi-
ties or we shall not. And what we are
really going to do depends. at least to
the European mind, upon how the elec-
ton goes. In any event, until the
election is over and new adminstra-
ton takes Office nothing decisive can
be expected.
So the best that can be done for
Mueller and for BRAND is to appoint
committees to investigate. There have
to be two committees, because the Ger
mans insist that there is no connec-
ton between evacuation and repara-
tions, just as we insist that there is no
relation between debts and reparations.
"llCu cItCb-UIl IL ONeT tIlc bTlClS0
position will be clear. The British
Government will say, as it said in the
Belfour note. and has all along con-
tlnued to say to Germany. France and
Italy. "As for us, if you can persuade
the Americans to cancel the debts. our
debt and your debt to them. We arc
ready to wipe out your debts and repa-
ratlons. We have no interest in the
subject except that we must have from
| our allies and from Germany. our late
! enemy. every dollar and cent We have
to pay the American creditor"
Attitude of French.
Then the Frenchman will say to the
German, We are ready to get out of
the Rhineland Just as soon as YOU pro-
vide lis with the money to pay the En-
glishman and the American. or per-
! suade both to drop their claims against
us. 1t is all the same to us whether
you get the Americans to cancel the
debt or to lend you the money to pay
us so we can pay him.
AS for the German. his situation is
clear. If he wants evacuation he must
! raise the money and he can raise it
only in the United States. On the other
hand. anything which he can persuade
the United States to knock off the bill
We hold against our former associates
Will, in the end come off his BILL II
we hold out then he will have to endure
occupation for the next five years and
go on paying reparationS in sums which
will sooner or later exhaust his resources,
not to raise the money in German cur
rency but to transfer it.
The reports from Geneva and else.
where that Europe is going to consider
! marketing the German securities is lust
plain bluff. 1t is bluff intended to give
! the impression to both the German and
French republics that a good deal is
being accomplished and if possible to
make the American bankers nervous
lest they be shut out of the huge profits
which will be made In the f1otation of
the German securities. It is barely con-
! cetvable that some effort will be made
| to raise S400.000000 the sum France
left after the war, if she doesn't ratify
| the Mellon -Berenger Debt Treaty but
/ even this Is excessively unlikely.
! In the European conception the solu-
tion OF reparations and debts and evac-
uation has reduced itself to the single
process done in a three time motion.
/ Germany sells in the United States
! S4,O0O.O00,000 securities. She turns over
| the proceeds to the allies. who give her
what amounts to a receipt in full for
reparations. although payments In kind
may be continued in limited quantities.
| The allies. in their turn. hand over the
| same sum to us. or as much of it as
they cannot persuade us not to take,
and We give them receipt in full for
| their debts to us. Then reparations,
debts, occupation disappear and the
war is liquidated.
All that remains thereafter is for the
American investors who have bought
the German securities to get their
money back, along with the interest.
| What the committees appointed to
| liquidate the last problem of the war