Evening star., 1928-12-16

TIE recent declaration of Sir
Austen Chamberlain in the
House of Commons on the sub
iect of the evacuation of Ger
many, notable as the first utter
ance of the foreign secretary since
his return after long illness, serves
to make clear at once the enormous
strength of the French position in all
the forthcoming discussions with re-
spect of reparations and OF evacuation
alike.
The German claim, pressed with
growing insiStence ever since the max
ing of the Locarno pacts, has been that
there remained no justification for the
presence of allied troops on German
soil now that the matter of reparations
had been regulated by the Dawes plan
and the question of French and Belgian
security by the Locarno agreements,
which combined German acceptance of
the status quo with a British guarantee
of this condition, of course, in both
cases limited to the Rhine frontier.
Actually the Germans have founded
their case on two separate contentious,
one legal and the other moral They
have argued that the language OF the
treaty of Versailles, while foreseeing a
possible occupation OF German territory
up to 1885, foreshadowed earlier evacu-
alton if the treaty terms were fulfilled.
They have also contended that since
Locarno represented moral disarma-
ment, the first step in a final reconcile
alton of the French and German peo-
piles, nothing could be at once more
absurd and more fatal than the pro-
longation of the constant irritation and
minor conflict incident to the presence
of French troops on German soil.
Replies on Legal Claim.
Sir Austen has now undertaken to
answer the legal claim, and that alone.
While he agrees obviously with the pre-
vailing sentiment of Britain that as a
matter of policy Germany should be
evacuated, he is forced to recognize that
as matter of law the French can con-
tend that, since the Germans have not
yet discharged the whole of their repara-
tionS account, they have no legal claim
to demand evacuation.
But, in point of fact, while the Ger
mans have not discharged their obliga-
tions, these obligations have never yet
been translated into final statement
of what Germany owes. The account
remains where the reparations COM
mission left it eight years ago, when
it fixed at $4,000, 100000 the amount
Germany ought to pay, based upon
allied claims. Technically Germany
still remains liable to pay this sum, al
though in practice the world has long
ago recognized that this is at least three
times larger than the maximum possible.
Under the Dawes plan, which was
agreed upon in 1924. the sum of Ger
man obligations was ignored. The COM
mission simply undertook to fix the sum
which it held possible for Germany to
pay over series of years. Rising by
degrees, this sum reached total of
S625 100000 in the current year. But
there is no provision setting forth how
long Germany must pay this annual
charge, although the treaty of Ver-
sailles does provide that the German
obligation shall be discharged within 30
years. Thus as the situation stands
Germany can be held for $625 600, 600
annually for the balance of the 30-year
period remaining.
Seek to Fix Total.
Today efforts are being made to bring
about fixation of the sum, which
means in practice deciding how much
Germany shall pay during a specified
number of years. And this means that
there is to be substituted for the figure
of S33, 900, 100000 some amount held
possible and, in addition, some system
like the Mellon-Baldwin agreement on
the British debt, to cover the rate of
payment, is to be determined upon.
1t is clear, however, that the sum to
be fixed must be beyond the capacity
OF the Germans to pay at once or even
within the period fixed for the occupa-
ton of German soil, which ends on
January /, 1885. But on the other
hand it is just as clear that technically,
since until they have paid their entire
debt the Germans will not have full
filled their obligation, allied troops could
stay on German soil. And it is in
theory at least possible that French
troops might stay in the Rhineland not
until 1885, but until the full discharge
of the principal and interest of the debt
which, if the British precedent were
followed, would be in 1860.
France, therefore, holds the cards
Without her approval the sum of repa-
rations cannot be fixed. for what is in
volved must be a sweeping reduction
from the liability Of $33,000,000, ,000
Only on terms satisfactory to her can
the total sum of reparationS be fixed
and only on terms satisfactory to her
can evacuation take place. even in 1885
And in Poincare France has beyond all
else lawyer determined to exploit the
French legal position to the uttermoSt
On the other hand it is, of course,
clear that not even Poincare believes
that Germany can be made to pay $33,-
900 900, 900 or that French troops can be
kept on the Rhine until 1860 or even
later, He has in mind selling French