Evening star., 1928-12-31

| enough 1OI any ca
citable American in Roger Babson
| time, That the business OUTLOOK Is
good is pretty generally agreed but tnat
| the outlook is as satisfactory as tne
November stock boom suggested Is H.
diculous to assert. o
| "It is an axiom that fair degree
of prosperity under one administrator
| will be more easily followed oy con-
| tinued prosperity if the political COM
plexion of the governing body IS un-
changed. The Coolidge regime mas Deen
on the whole successful, and believe
Mr. Hoover will bring forward very pro-
Qressiye ideas and build solidly on the
foundation of his predecessor. We VIII
place in the White House next Marcn
an engineer and not a politician. we
will bring to the administration OF the
Nations business for the next four years
the scientific knowledge OF one OF the
| best administrative experts in the world
Every section of the country Will receive
equal consideration and all groups 1alr
treatment.
Il am convinced that Herbert Hoov-
er will make a strenuous effort TO nelp
agriculture during 1929. He has a bril-
liant mind and is a very hard worker.
He will take his job very seriously-es-
peciallv so. knowing that he Is coming
into Office during the flood tide OF pros
perity and cannot depend upon the law
of action and reaction to make him
great President. He must make place
for himself in history, even against tnls
great law. But he knows all this, and
foreWarned should be forearmed.. An
other thing, he knows that the farmers
of the country will not forever trust the
promises of Republican politicians.
ut has always been said that party
platform is much like a street car plat
form-'of use only to get in on! Whetner
or not this has been the case in the
mast Herbert Hoover will not so con-
slider it. He will make a serious and
sane effort to make 1929 year OF real
prosperity. Moreover, with the gooo
nartv maiorities which he will have in
both the House and the Senate, he VIII
have support for his plans and appro-
priations.
West and the South during 1929. Other
Republican administrations have not
worried much about the South because
of its 100 per cent Democratic lean
ings; but owing to what the South mas
done for Mr.. Hoover he would be potn
ungrateful and very unwise not to make
a very great effort to give the South
land some real prosperity.
Commodity Prices.
GAS I have stated, the present condi-
ton of the country, except for an in
flated stock market, is fundamentally
healthy, and I look to see the first hall
of 1929 reflect business which will COM
mare fayorably with the first half OF
1928. This generally good business
argues for a temporary move upward
in general commodity prices during the
early months of 1929. Later, the gen.
eral trend should bring prices down
to 1928 levels. I look for no marked
infiation-only short upswlng. ms
would come from the reluctance on
the part of manufacturers ana mer-
chants to order goods last Fall because
of presidential fears. The prooanlnties
are. however. that after this buying
has spent its force. we will get back to
about the same prices as have ruled
throughout 1928.
"Sales territories in 1929 should have
a more even distribution Of prosperity
than heretofore. Optimism in the I'M
portant farming sections should make
itself felt as actual conditions improve
upon the fulfillment of Mr.. HooVerS
prediction promises. Certain indus
trial sections will also be good pros
poets as long as business continues
active. Specific lines OF activity WIZ
be assured of support by the new ao-
ministration and should offer good sales
possibilities. That is, some induStrialS
will benefit especially and will be
looked upon with particular favor by
the Republican party. advise mer-
chandiSerS to keep In touch with
Washington policies and shape their
sales campaigns with an eye TO the
trends which prevail from that quarter.
Employment Prospects.
Good business rests primarily on
the fact that our millions OF workers
are well employed, although workers
are constantly being released as auto
matte machines and efficiency projects
enter. do not, however, fear for the
employment situation in 1929. There
Is reason to anticipate that in 1929 ag-
gregate pay rolls will reach somewhat
higher level than at the present rate.
I do not believe that wages per worker
are due for much increase and there
may be some sagging in rates during
the year, although severe readJust-
ments are not likely to occur.
THE announcement OF President
elect Hoover'S tentative plan for a S.
O0O, 900 900 unemployment reserve. which
would serve as buffer against times OF
overproduction and surplus labor sup
ply, has stirred up considerable interest.
The proposal was first brought up at
the conference of governors which was
held in New Orleans while the Ameri-
can Federation Of Labor convention was
in session. 1t embodies principles for
which the federation has been fighting
for years, and consequently the plan
was received by the delegates with en-
thusiaSm.
"It is one thing, Of course. to indorse
a general plan such as Is embraced by
this unemployment reserve. 1t Is an
entirely different proposition to carry
the project out in a detailed and scien-
tific manner. do not believe, how
ever, that Mr.. Hoover permitted the
public announcement of the PROPOSE
ton unless he has determined to act
definitely to promote industrial stability
and relieve unemployment by accumu-
lating a reserve of funds for public
construction.
Automobile Outlook.
"The first part of 1929 should see the
automobile industry speeding along in
high gear. The leaders in 1928 will
not necessarily be the leaders in 1929.
Ford is coming in for big volume of
business, which means that to GER
tain extent he must take 1t away from
other companies. With Chevrolet climb
ing peg to the six-cylinder class, Ford
has virtual control over the whole four
cylinder field. The problems Of the
industry. however, will be greatly mag
nif1ed next year. Competition has been
stepped UP now to include the small
six-cylinder lines, Of which there are
many. A serious price war is in the
maxine And will fNyniya n larger nr0iIn