Evening star., 1928-05-18
SOME DARK SPOTS
|. ON TRADE HORIZON
Prosperity Being Maintained,
but Many Are Finding
Future Too Bright.
BY J. c. ROYLE.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK, May 18.-1n the last
week America has gone back TO the ma
tional pastime of counting its chickens
before they are Matched. The econo-
nists, statisticians. financiers and bust
ness men of the Nation are quite agreed
that prosperity is now being maintained
at the full, but good many apparently
have looked far in advance toward
future and possible profits rather than
at the immediate returns coming in
from the various lines Of business en-
deavor.
This does not mean that the enthu-
siasm over the position of the majority
of business lines is not justified. bIs it
does mean that the Improvements i'll
those lines not particularly prosperous
at the present time, and even in the
ranks of the high profit makers. have
been discounted from one to two years
in advance.
Example in Oil Industry.
Statisticians admitted today that 1t
was question whether actual orders
on the books of manufacturers war
ranted the extreme optimism Ct some
executives. An example may be cited
in the oil industry. Ten Of the large
and more important oil companies
showed an aggregate decline IN profits
in the first quarter of 1923 Of 30.3 per
cent as compared with 1927. Oil busi-
ness is undoubtedly improving. but it
will be from six to nine months before
there can be readjustment Of techni-
cal position such as to warrant the
- Of ~
gagged.
The paper industry Is perhaps also
subject to superoptimism. The fact
remains that the production capacity Of
American and Canadian mills is fully
20 per cent In excess of the consump-
tive demand and the profits undoubt-
edly depend on restriction of produc-
ton to the limits imposed by con-
sumption.
Copper StiII Rising.
Copper metal is on its way upward
still. with increased profits TO every
producer, but 1t IS also apparen. that If
each producer turned out the maximum
amount of red metal possible the price
of copper would be forced sharply
downward.
There are many conditions, on the
Quiet dkC nAO0k A0FOA0~~~
to the optimistic viewpoint. There can
be no question whatever that building
construction as represented by actual
contracts let, and not by permits issued
for possible construction, Is far in ad-
vance OF that OF 1927 at this date. This
has benefited the steel industry, the
lumber industry. the cement industry,
the brick industry, the hardware in
dustry and a score. of subsidiary lines.
Automobile production, with the i'm
provement in the Ford output. is grad
ually reaching a point which five years
ago would have been deemed absolutely
impossible. It Is true that competition
is Tightening. but the major factors IN
the industry were fully prepared 10
meet competition and are doing splen-
d. ". This Is aiding the accessory man.
ufacturers and the raw material pro-
ducers.
Passenger traffic on the railroads url-
uuestionably will be heavier this sum-
mer than in the last five years More
Americans are going to take vacations
than ever before, and take them lar
from home. American travellers TO
France alone are expected to spend over
$500, ,000. 900 with the hotel men OF that
republic in the next five months.