Evening star., 1928-11-04
CITY VOTE FACTOR
IN CONNECTICUT
G. 0. P. Looks to Rural
Backers to Overcome Smith
Edge in Urban Areas.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

| OpCOiaI OlSpdtCH 10 me OtaF.
HARTFORD, Conn, November s.
Connecticut is now claimed by both
major political parties, although in
inner Democratic circles it is admitted
that Gov. Smith has little better than
an outside chance of carrying the
State. The recent visit of the Demo-
cratic standard bearer, on which he
made stops at the principal cities, Hart
ford, New Haven, Bridgeport, Waterbury
and New Britain, did much to hearten
the leaders, who had practically given
up the fight, although making no pub
'ic admission of defeat
The reception given the candidate all
elong the line was an ovation Of such
magnitude that the Democratic chiefs,
IS well as Gov. smibth, interpret the
enthusiasm as meaning votes. The
greeting, especially in Hartford, where
the longest stop was made, far exceeded
In its warmth the expectations of
friends and foes. The Smith visit has
undoubtedly put new life into the Con-
necticut Democrats. but 1t Is only a
matter of conjecture as to the number
of votes II any 1t has made for the
visitor, who had been bound ANYWAY
to make far better showing than
either Davis IN 1924 or Cox in 1920.
Roraback Confident.
Chairman J. H. Roraback of the Re-
publican State central committee, ma
tlonal committeeman from Connecticut,
has not been known to withdraw his
forecast of $4,000 plurality for Hoover,
made at the time of his nomination,
but he has given out no recent esti-
mate, confining his forecast to saying
that the State is safely Republican.
National Committeeman Thomas j.
Spellacy and other Democratic leaders,
ON the other hand, are claiming that
Connecticut will give Smith a plurality
OF 10000 or more, basing their conten-
ton Of what they say the cities will do.
Their estimate Of the combined Demo-
cratic pluralitieS in the cities, of which
there are about 20 in a total Of 1859
municipalities In Connecticut, is 10000,
which they claim will be too big a
handicap for the small towns to wipe
out
They look to Hartford, New Haven
and waterbury to furnish the bulk of
their city vote, while Bridgeport, the
remaining city of Connecticut's Big
Four" and usually Republican strong-
hold. is not looked upon to help much
II any, possibly giving, according to
Democratic figures, 1000 or 1000 plu-
rality for Smith. New Haven, Hartford
and waterbury are estimated by Demo-
cratic leaders at something like 5000
each for their national ticket.
Republican leaders, while not denying
that Smith will lead Hoover in most Of
the cities, with particular strength in
Hartford, New Haven and Waterbury
DO not concede these cities by anything
like the Democratic figures, believing
$500 to $500, New Haven to not more
than 1000 and Waterbury to perhaps
approximately the same plurality as
New Haven. Bridgeport Is not conceded
to the Democrats by the Republicans,
who do not look for anything worse
than a standoff in that city and have
hopes Of carrying it by small margin.
City Vote Important
The votes of these cities are important.
as the battle In Connecticut has resolved
itself into contest between city and
small town. The Republicans look to
the towns to offset the city vote, as was
the case in 1922. the last year In which
State. If the Republicans can keep the
big city pluralities to total of 10000
or less. they should carry the State by
a comfortable plurality, but far below
that Of 1924, when Coolidge led Davis
by 10000. and 1920, when Harding had
100000 over Cox.
While Connecticut has been listed by
some political writer's as q doubtful
State, the recent disposition has been
to put it in the sure Republican column,
where it has been at every presidential
election since the Cleveland victory in
1892, with the exception of 1912, the
year Of the Republican split. Even the
coming Of Smith has not changed this
later view and non extremists. who see
things as they are, rather than as they
want them to be, give Connecticut to
Hoover by a plurality of 10000. with
somewhat larger margins for Walcott,
Republican candidate for United States
Senator against Lonergan, Democrat.
and the candidates on the Republican
State ticket. This estimate seems rea-
sonable.
There appears little doubt that four
of the five Republican candidates for
Congress will be successful and the
probability is that the entire Republican
delegation in the House of Representa-
tiveS will be reelected The possible
exception to the rule is the fifth dis
trict, made up Of Litchfield County and
the Waterbury end Of New Haven
County, where an abnormally large
Democratic plurality in Waterbury
would endanger the chances Of Repre-
sentative Glynn, Republican. This dis
trict is the only one in the State that
has gone Democratic since 1918,
Democrat being elected in 1922.
H. I. HORTON.