Evening star., 1928-12-30
1923 HELD DISAPPOINTING
in DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS
Anglo-American Naval Discord Regarded
Outstanding Blot of Year-Decisive
Action Declared Needed.

| to Czechoslovakia, which would become
an enclave, almost surrounded by Ger
man territory. Nor would it be less
| menacislg to italy, not merely as con-
sequence of the presence of German
population south of the Alps in the
Adige region, but because 1t would
fatally revive the push of German as
piration toward Trieste, the old Austrian
port, on the Adriatic.
Meantime, while political questions
remain disturbing, there has been a
clear disclosure that the old economic
issues of the postwar period, repara-
tions and evacuation, must now be
faced promptly.
Decisive Action Urged.
Before the new year is over something
clear and decisive will have to be done
in the matter of fixing the sum of
German indebtedness and the term of
allied occupation of the Rhineland. And
consideration will have to be directed
again to the issue of allied debts. For
10 years, ever since the making of the
treaty of peace, all these vital queS-
tions have been dealt with only by
day-to-day compromises. Rightly, the
effort to solve financial questions has
been postponed until political and eco
nomic conditions could be disposed of.
But now it is necessary to decide
on account of the war and on what
terms allied troops will be withdrawn,
allied financial commissions recalled
and Germany at last permitted to enjoy
her national freedom again.
On the financial side we have al
ready been brought face to face with
an Anglo-French-I italian purpose to
get from Germany enough to meet
American obligations, and in the French
case to get the costs of restoring the
devastated area as WELL
This program requires, first of all,
German assent to pay annually sums
which are still believed by experts to be
not beyond her capacity to raise by do
meStic taxation, but beyond her ca
pacity to transfer beyond her frontiers.
In the second place, this scheme re-
quires the f1otation, chiefly upon the
American money market, of vast bond
issues, aggregating upward of $4,000,-
100000. In a word, it envisages raising
in the United States most of the money
to liquidate reparations, this money to
be turned back to us on account of al
lied debts.
New Guarantees Demanded.
Again, on the political side, France,
Poland, CzechoSlovakia and to a lesser
extent Italy and Belgium, are all re-
solved that before the problem of the
occupation of the Rhineland is solved
there shall be new guarantees of the
security Of all the states which have
reasons for dreading the restoration OF
German liberty and strength
If 1928 has been disappointing, it is
not less evident that 1929 must be de-
1cisive. In some fashion or other both
the political and the financial issues
must have settlement. The financial
which may run for two generations;
the political issues require arrange
ments which amount to the recognition
of the present map of Europe as per-
manent The alternative is the revival
of all the pre-war system of rival CO.
alittons, based upon conflicting policies
and surviving ambitions.
Problems for New Year.
In sum, the next year is likely to dis
close whether the arrest in the move
ment toward European cooperation on
the economic side and toward appease-
ment and reconciliation on the politi-
cal which has characterized 1928 is
temporary or is the disclosure of the
fact that European tradition has proved
more powerful than all the experience
of the war and postwar period.
Nor is it less clear that a change in
Anglo-American relations is condition
antecedent to any real progress in Eu-
rope. Not even the occupation of the
Ruhr has been a greater world dis
aSter than the Anglo-American naval
dispute. If it continues, it will inevita-
bly, result in permanently abolishing all
hope of disarmament in Europe and in
the division of the Continent into Brit
ish and American groups Already the
European mind, used to such rivalries,
is foreshadowing the grouping of Ger
many and Russia with the United
States and France and her allies with
Great Britain. And already the same
experts are suggesting the revival of
the Anglo-Japanese alliance, with
definitely anti-American implication.
On the threshold of new year
therefore, Europe is very clearly hesi-
tating between two possibilities-the
liquidation of the last war as a prelude
to re-establishing peace on an enduring
basis, and the preparation for a new
war. No people of all the European
races desires new war, but not a few
in every nation are beginning to fear
that it is, after all. ineScapable. And
upon the events of the coming year
may well depend the character of the
world in which the next two generations
will live.
Copyright. 1929