Evening star., 1928-11-04
BR|TONS APPROACH
B|CELECT|ON FIGHT
Conservatives Under Bald
win Facinu Dual Attack by
Labor and Liberals.
nY A. G. GARDNER.

By Cable 10 The star,
LONDON, November 3.--When King
George opens Parliament on Tuesday,
Prime Minister Baldwin in all proba-
bility will enter on the last session of
his government. Whether he can re-
cover his ground remains to be seen,
but the portents are definitely against
him and the curious episode of Lord
Birkenl1ead's resignation of the Indian
secretaryship is interpreted as meaning
that Mr.. Baldwin's ship is sinking and
the time has come to seek shelter else
where
Lord Birkenhead, whose scale of liv-
ing is legend of magniflcence, frankly
indicates that he wants more money
than the ministerial service offers, but
the haste of his departure is regarded
as significant that the time is short
in which to take the tide of opportunity
at its flood.
This view is strengthened by events
in the country, where the by-electiors
are going strongly against the govern
ment, and where the municipal elcc-
tiorls Thursday resulted in an over
whelming demonstration OF the grow.
ing strength of Labor. 1t is clear that
in the Industrial constituencies MIR.
Baldwin will suffer heavy losses. ana
the program of the coming session gives
little promise that he will be able to
check the current
7 Industry Is Problem.
The main card is the policy OF de-
rating industry in order to stimulate
trade, but the scheme arouses oppoSl-
tion on the ground that prosperous IN
drstries would be de-rated as well as
the lInprosberous ones and that tbs
distributing trades would have to oeer
the burden of relieving the manufac-
turing trades.
Moreover, the humiliating exposure
of the naval agreement with France
has aroused the deepest feeling tnaC
the. government is untrustworthy on
foreien affairs. This feeling was some-
what mitigated by Mr.. Baldwin's speech
at the League of Nations Union IN
which he denied the suggestion that the
government had abandoned its Locarno
position of impartiality. or had entered
into new engagements, or had less
cordiality toward Germany than toward
France.
But while no one questions the sin
cerity, of the prime minister, recent
events leave much to be explained, ana
Lord Cushendun,S speech on the en-
tente is held by some as most olS-
In the circumstances, it Is taken for
Granted that the government will lose
in the coming election heavily to Labor
and less heavily to the Liberals, and
while it still win be the largest party
in the House, it. probably will not have
working majority over Labor and tne
Liberals. s.-
The chief subject of speculation is
what will happen in the event tne
Sn~ TIo,,S,Ar priYaHA Minister
LLOYD George emerge with the balance
of power. The present oStensible re-
lation between Lloyd George and Ram
saw Macdonald, the Labor leader, is
war to the knife. but the inner cycles
are discussing the possibility OF a
coalition of some sort after the election.
But LLOYD George and Philip Snowden
saw significantly that the Kings gov
erninent must be carried on, and the
impression is general that Lloyd George
is not unprepared to coalesce with
either party. His supporters in the
press are busily engaged in habituatlng
the. public mind to the idea OF a coan-
tion cabinet, with Lloyd George, as the
merger chief, ready to make the pest
terms possible with either the Con-
seryatiyes or Labor. This situation is
nacuIiarIy suited to his nin1ble genius,
which dislikeS the party system except
as an instrument for making private
deals and manipulating f1uid masses OF
opinion.
Merger Not Popular.
Neither Baldwin nor Macdonald is
personally anxious for merger which
involves Lloyd George as a colleague |
Indeed, 1t is improbable that Baldwin
would accept such situation In any
circumstances, for he was the chief
instrument in smashing Lloyd Georges
postwar coalition government and re-
storing the independence OF the Con-
Servative party. s.
Hence, In the event of the Conserva-
tiveS failing to secure majority; the
probabilities point to a deal between
Labor and Lloyd George, in which case
the. question arises, Who would be
prime minister?
Macdonald still is the most powerful
personality in the Labor party. but a
movement is on foot to press Snowdens
claims he being on much more friendly
terms with Lloyd George than Mac
Donald. The fly in Lloyd Georges
ointment n that the Liberal party still
is bitterly divided. and considerable
section, represented by Lord Grey,
would refuse to acknowledge his leader
ship. These are the elements of the
most perplexing political situation that
ever confronted the country as an elec-
ton approached.
copyright, 1921