Evening star., 1928-05-16
Politics at Large
By C. Could Lincoln.

t--------------------- --------~-----------~---t
More and more the indications are
that Gov AL Smith of New York is to
be the presidential nominee of the
Democrats. Already the delegates in
structed, pledged and claimed by the
Smith followers have gone beyond the
600 mark, and the necessary two-thirds
OF the national convention strength to
nominate is 1914 votes. With the
Smith nomination looming before them
the Republicans have a measure of
choice as to where the battle for the
presidential election Is to be waged
The Democrats are planning to nomi-
nate Gov. Smith, not because OF the
strength he has In the South or the
West but because OF the strength he
is believed to have In the North and
East. Without the backing OF the dele
gates to the Democratic national con-
Vention representing New York, Penn
sylvania and New England, AL Smith
would have no chance whatever for
the Democratic nomination. Without
the electoral votes Of many OF those
States. he will have little chance Of
,, being elected President, If he be the
party nominee. 1t seems clear, there
fore that the Republicans must make
| their fight, their principal battle in
the North and East.
II n
1t seems pretty clear that the solid
South Is to swallow Gov. Smith. Talk
| of reyolts in the South against the
Democratic nominee have simmered
down largely to Senator Hefin of Ala
bama. The 10 States of the solid South
have a total OF 126 electoral votes; the
so-called border States, Tennessee and
Kentucky, IL and l3. respectively. Ok
lahoma, which usually goes Democratic.
has 10 and Arizona 3. There Is total
OF 1874 votes, giving Smith the border
States. But it requires 266 electoral
votes to elect, making 1t necessary for
the Democrats to win more than 100
electoral votes elsewhere.
II Gov. Smith can win in New York.
New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecti-
cut, Rhode Island, Maryland and Mis-
souri,, 1t means IFS more electoral votes.
or more than enough to elect him, If he
wins the solid South and the other
| States already mentioned. And 1t is in
| New York, New Jersey. Massachusetts,,
! etc, that the Democrats are hoping to
win, and where apparently they have
a better chance to win than In other
debatable States.
4 \
The Republicans under such condi-
tions must. it appears, put forward
their candidate who Is strongest in
these States of the North and East.
New Jersey. Massachusetts,. Rhode
TaI- a a f.. ale de-, lima
up strongly for Herbert Hoover. In
New York q majority of the delegation
| 10 the national convention Is claimed
for Hoover. In Missouri Lowden has
the advantage over Hoover in delegates.
| In none of the rest Of these States Is
| there any demand among the rank and
file for Lowden. Dawes, Curtis or any
OF the other candidates, as indicated
in primaries and conventions. Lowden,
Dawes and Curtis all have friends in
these States. but the demand appar-
entity has been for Hoover Lowden,
Dawes and Curtis are strong because
of their appeal to the farmers Of the
corn belt and the wheat belt. But their
| support of the McNary- -Haugen farm
bill does not make an appeal to the
| voters of the East
| The claim IL made by the supporters
| OF the Midwest group OF candidates for
| the Republican nomination that a man
representing the Midwest must be
chosen TO keep the agricultural States
IN line for the party next November
Ihey are insisting that Mr.. Hoover
cannot carry these farm States against
Al Smith. because the farmers are
a..
vote against Hoover rather than
for Smith They may be forgetting
that many Of the voters In these West
ern States will vote against AL Smith
| OF Tamnlaay Hall. wet and Catholic
But Wnen the situation Is canyaSsed
thoroughly IL appears that Smith Is no,
/ going to defeat the Republicans through
coalition OF the South and West. n
| he wins. II is going TO be In the North
and East, with the aid OF the solid
South, which is dry. but which viii
support the New York governor be.
cause OF the race issue. just as it would
support any other Democratic nominee
me Republicans must. under these cir
eumstances. pick the man who will stand
the best show OF carrying the big States
OF the North and East against the
New Yorker. II Smith wins them. II
(
West do. Besides, the claim that smith
Is likely to carry these Western States
Is based on prejudice against Hoover
ana takes into consideration none OF the
objections lodged in those States against
smith. The Democratic party has been
| nat OH its back In these Western States
/ Tor years. II was not difncult to see, as
| long ago as last Fall. that Smith would
| get most of the delegates from thesS.
| Western States But getting delegates
and getting electoral votes are TWO very
different affairs
| p =
They'll give Al Smith a base on balls
| In Houston and throw him out at the
home plate next November" was the
| comment OF Democrat-~anti-S Smith.
TO be sure but with q decided opinion
as to what will be the result OF the
election this year.
With Mr. Hoover out in the lead for
the Republican nomination. having some
ACT delegates lined up for him, exclusive
OF Pennsylvania delegation of ~
| which may swing TO him. and additional
| delegates for Rim TO be chosen in
| Oregon and elsewhere this week. the
anti-Hooyer group Is bending all It's
energies to make II appear that Hoover
| cannot win against Smith in the agri-
| cultural States 1t seems 10 be their
only hope In their effort to halt the
| Secretary OF Commerce. The statement
recently made by Secretary Mellon that
he considered MIR Hoover the best fitted
Of all the candidates has been real
! blow 10 the anti Hoover group, though
they Insist that MIR Mellon has made
more Of an appeal for the drafting OF
President Coolidge than for the noml-
nation oi MIR. Hoover.
The President has not for several
/ weeGs~~in fact. not since the primary
Ia Massachusetts, made any further
statement regarding his own position
toward the nomination But there are
those who believe that between today
| and the time at thr opening OF the