The Washington times., 1928-06-22
NORMAL TRADE
SHOWN BY
BANKS
By RICHARD HATTON

The first half of 1928 is draw.
Ing to a close and the semi-annual
economic reviews are due. I'm
nuestionably there will be nothing
of startling nature published
in regard to business dlH'ing the
last six months. Nothing startling
in the way Of activity and moth.
ing startling in the way of slack.
ness Just about normal, proba bly,,
il the best that the experts will
be able to get from a survey OF
the first six months of 1928.
AS 10 the remaining six months,
opinions differ. The viewpoint Of
the National Bank of Commercs
of New York seems to be safe
middle ground expression. 1t be-
lieves: THE period should be
better than the latter half of
1927. though not likely to equal
the records established in some
more active years.
Money Rate
In regard to money. the same
authority believes:
..No indications of a material
easing of money rates have as
yet occurred. although we are in
the period when there normally
occurs a decline in the commercial
demand for money The seasonal
influence ought to be working In
that direction On the other hand.
uncertainty exists as to the So
called cyclical movement of bust
ness. The volume of business
after allowing for seasonal fluc-
fuations. had declined by Novem,
her to q point substantially below
normal and. for several months
following, what appeared to be
new upward movement was under
way
For the last four months, how
ever. the movement has been side
wise, with apparently slight decline
in recent weeks 1t IS quite unusual
for the volume OF business to remain
on a dead level for so long period,
and normally 1t would be expected
that definite change in one direc-
ton or another would soon occur. If
the upward tendency of the cyclical
movement should be resumed, it
might offset the declining seasonal
tendency, and result in sustained
commercial demand for money.
'sIn that event barring an unex-
pected reversal in gold movements,
or sharp decline in stock market re.
quirementsl. we might go through
the summer without any marked re-
taxation in money conditions.
Preliminary Drop
'.On the other hand. IL it should de-
velop that the last four months side.
wise movement has been but q halt
ing preliminary to 4 downward trend
in the cycIical movement, we should
have two influences working toward
easier money conditions. Another
uncertain factor is the condition of
business psychology. While it is
generally recognized by the business
comnnnity that there exist no funda-
mental obstacles TO the normal adj
vancement OF business. a feeling of
hesitation exists. 1T is difficult to
find an adequate explanation of this
hesitancy. although there are a num-
Der OF contributing factors OF vary
ing influence in different fields Of
business and sections7of the country.
whatever may be the explanation, it
appears that there must occul a
change of business psychology before
we shall know the probable demand
for commercial money"
Bankers to Elect
Today Is the date set for election
OF members Of the executive coun.
ell Of the American Institute of
Banking now in general convention
Ill tn - I'm.
terest is centered in the selection of
T. Hunton Leith. former president
of the local chapter and assistant
cashier of the Security Savings and
Commercial Bank. who was placed
in nomination by Vice President
Edward ]. McQuade of the Liberty
National Bank and who is being
steadfastly supported by the entire
washington delegation to the con
yention. Every member OF the
local chapter will be on ed5e today
until the flash comes from Phila
de1phia that Leith is elected.
Directors of the Merchants BdnI
and Trust Company have declared,
the regular semiannual dividend Of
per cent payable on July : 10
stockholders of record. June IS.
The Federal City Securities Com
pany has declared a 3 per cent
sepoiannual dividend payable jay
TO stockholders of record June %
President Robert \. Harper n
the District National Bank left
last evening for Houston to attend
the Democratic national convention
Col. 6. w. Pratt has. also, taken
up the trail to Houston in charge
OF the local delegation to the con.
Vention.