Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-09-21
HOOVER|SLEAD|NG
STRAW VOTE z TO |.
First Returns in Literary 0i-
gest's Poll Shows Him
Ahead.

/ Hoover is shown leading Smith in
the presidential race in the first scat
! tering returns Of the Literary Digest's
/ poll published today.
! The Republican nominee has received
/ l.756 ballots to 1922 for Smith. out
of the 1880 now tabulated. This is a
/ percentage Of 67.3 of the total for
Hoover as against 81 g for Smith. The
other 81 per cent of the votes are
divided among the three minor cam
didates.
An analysis of how the same voters
voted in 1924" shows that Smith re-
ceives over 43 per cent of his strength
in these first returns from those who
voted for Coolidge four years ago, while
only 80 per cent of his total poll comes
from Democratic voters in the last
Presidential election.
The same tabulation shows Hoover
obta lining more than 70 per cent of his
total votes from Republican voters of
1924 with gain of only II per cent
from the Democratic ranks
Shift Indicated.
A startling local shift in party lines
is indicated in the few early returns
from Wisconsin comprising some 4.5O0
votes which show that over one-half of
the Democratic vote in that State is
coming from former Republicans. Like
wise. in New Jersey. over so per cent
of the Smith vote appears to be drawn
from voters who voted the Coolidge
ticket in 1924 whereas Hoover captures
less than 10 per cent of former DEM
ocratic adherents.
The switch of voters is somewhat re-
versed in Maryland on the face of the
early returns. as Hoover receives over 80
per cent of his votes from former Dem
ccratic voters while Smith gets only %
per cent from the Republicans.
A State-bv-State tabulation. stated
as being far from complete, shows Cali
fornia voting. Hoover. AL; Smith. 206
Maryland: Hoover. 867: Smith, los.
Nebraska; Hoover. 2.34O: Smith. 1.136.
New Jersey: Hoover, 1920: Smith,
$685.. wisconsin: Hoover. 1888:
Smith. 1915.
This is. of course. a far greater pre-
ponderance in favor of the Republican
candidate that any previous sectional
polls" the Literary Digest states edi-
torially. "or even than all but the most
optimistic Republican prophets, have
dared to claim. For a number of rea-
sons it would be premature 70 consider
these figures indicative of the final re-
suits of the Literary Digcsts poll.
Proportion May Change.
I'm our 1924 poll the Republican
candidate began with a lead of more
than four to one over his Democratic
rival The present poll starts with prac-
tically the same proportion of votes.
two to one in favor of the Republicans.
with which our 1924 poll ended. and
it remains to be seen whether the Dem
ocratS can increase their percentage as
substantially as they did in the course
of the last poll Such an increase
would indicate very close election"
Atten tion is called to the fact that
the Southern States are not represented
in the first figures that are published
in the Literary Digest today. 1t is also
pointed out that New York State. "ad-
the most important battle
ground of the present election" has
not been heard from at this time.
The Literary Digest stresses the fact
that the presidential poll conducted by
the magazine in 1924 evidenced an
average error of less than per cent
oy comparison with the official election
returns. while its correspondence with
the vote of the electoral college was 90
per cent correct"