Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-11-02
POLL GIVES HOOVER
LEAD IN 4 STATES
Alabama and Arkansas List
ed for Smith-G. O. P. Nom
inee Ahead in New York.

Hoover is shown ahead in AZ States
and the solid South" which has been
Democratic for more than so years,
will be broken, according to the final
returns of the Literary Digests huge
national presidential poll published to-
/ day.
/ Alabama and Arkansas are prac-
! tically a stand-off between the two
candidates in this prediction ballot
| ing, and the Literary Digest reports
that most of the political observers are
inclined to place both of these States
in the Smith coilsmn
With the exception of a few some
what doubtful sections, Hoover is lead
ing by substantial majorities in all of
the other AZ States, and the returns
indicate his probable election by an
ample margin.
other than the marked pluralities
accorded Hoover in the great majority
of States the outstanding features of
the poll are the indicated gain of the
Democratic nominee over the returns
of States, the outstanding features of
ton and the strong Republican inva-
sion of the South.
Of the record breaking total of
2. 767. 1862 ballots cast in this post card
election" Hoover has 63.2 per cent, and
Smith polls 35.7 per cent, with the
small remainder distributed among the
several minor candidates.
Last-Minute Switch Possible.
The Literary Digest in its columns
calls especially attention to a possible
last-minute switch of votes, such as
occurred between the La Toilette and
Davis ranks Immediately prior to the
al xr-lAS AtrrI.A
the returns in certain States from Hoo
yer to Smith, and it is cautioned that
this factor should be taken into con-
sideration in determining the validity
of the straw" poll, for all of its bal
lots were returned and counted more
than two weeks before the regular
election.
1t is pointed out that in a separate
polling of Philadelphia, where post card
ballots were sent to the entire electorate,
Hoover polls 69,704 votes to Smiths
48, 429, or about 4L4 to 8, whereas in the
1924 election the ratio between Coolidge
and Davis was about 612 to /.
Likewise, in Chicago, where all the
registered voters were asked to respond
for their favorite candidate, Hoover is
leading Smith by 99,916 to 71,810,
ratio of about 10 to 7, while four years
ago Coolidge received approximately a
3 to / return over Davis in the regular
election returns, showing possible
heavy Democratic trend in the larger
cities.
Hoover Ahead in New York.
The poll indicates Hoover leading
in New York State with a plurality
of 218,920 to 1859 votes, with all
the returns counted In New York
City, where it is stated every accredited
voter was asked to vote in this poll,
Smith leads his Republican rival by
140,770 to 105,864 while in 1924 Cool
idge carried all five boroughs of the
city.
The tabulations show Hoover ahead
in Massachusetts, which Is considered
by many astute political observers as
the prize doubtful State of the entire
Union. by a margin of slightly over
to /.
The completed returns show Smith
receiving about 80 per cent of his
support from those who stated that
they voted Republican in the last Presi-
Dental election, while Hoover obtains
over rs per cent of his strength from
those who protested they were Repub-
lican in 1924.
New Votes for Hoover.
OF the 444,370 who cast ballots :r
this straw election but who did not
vote in the official presidential cleo
ton four years ago, practically so per
cent are voting Republican and over 33
per cent are voting Democratic in this
straw poll
"The poll" the Literary Digest states
editorially, whose final results are
tabulated herewith, has proved to be
the greatest in history, with the COM
pletd returns some 100000 votes beyond
the record breaking poll of 1924.
"Tl1e total of votes received, 2,767, 1858
out of total of approximately 10000
600 ballots sent out, represent a proper
ton of LAG per cent, considerably above
the average for polls of this sort.
1.-THE outstanding features of the COM
pleted poll are the great pluralities
given Mr.. Hoover in most of the States,
the indicated Democratic gain over
! 1924 throughout most of the country,
especially in the largest cities, and the
Republican strength developed through
out the South.
Poll Held NOn-PartiSan.
'"The Digest, as was announced in
the first article on the poll, and has
emphasized since, presents its figures in
an absolutely non-partisan way, or an
'omnipartisan' way as one friendly
editor puts it, with the desire only to
get at the facts in the case and SO fairly
present them that its readers may draw
their own conclusions.
1.-THE present huge polling list Is the
work of number of years, founded
originally on the telephone books OF all
parts of the country, expanded, with
the elimination of Implications, by the
| lists of automobile owners of the coun-
try and, in many places, by registration
lists.
THE list of Digest subscribers is not
included as unit, as good many
commentators seem to believe, when
crediting the whole polling list with a
highbrow' tendency, and companion
tendency to minimize the Democratic
strength by from to 10 per cent.
IF there is last-minute switch in
the present election 1t must be taken
into account in considering the validity
of the poll
II Will Rogers