Plentywood herald. [volume] (Plentywood, Mont.) 1908-current, 1928-04-27

Montana cattle prices are due to con-
tinue upward for a few years and
then decline, according to predictions
made by jay g.. Diamond. federal crop
and stock statistician, after a careful
survey of conditions prevailing
throughout the state and in eastern
markets.
while cyclical swings in the profit
ableness of the cattle industry are gen..
orally accepted phenomena. their ex-
.istence is often overlooked and theil
possibilities as guides to production or
the part Of the range breeder are seldom
appreciated by many cattlemen whit
might be- in a position to adjust then
breeding power proftably to these
swings said Mr.. Diamond.
Since records have been available the
cattle industry has been subject to high
and low periods of production. prices and
of purchasing power. The time between
periods of small supplies or between the
peaks Of prices has averaged from IA tc
Is years.
Following the low point in market
supplies in 1914 the high prices and war
demands for beef greatly stimulated pro-
duction and at the end of the WAL po-
tential production was at q peak. Since
1874 Will S4dQ6AikCl CANNNAAAi6 RAOaGN
ton as a result of low prices there has
been a steady tendency to reduce herds
AS early as in 1925 the turn in the cycle
was becoming apparent. In January
1926, this department made the follow
ing prediction:
Montana cattlemen, in common with
those Of the rest Of the country, have
seen cattle prices working through a slow
cycle reaching comparatively low prices
in recent years. Cattle prices are now
generally believed to be in the upward
swing OF that cycle with the peak still
several years in the future. Mar
ketings OF range cattle in 1926 are ex-
pected to be materially less (than In
1921 but the number of grain finished
cattle may be larger. A marked decrease
in steers, both grass fed and feeders is
indicated and calf slaughter in 1896 Is
expected to be less than in 1925
"Drouth during 1926 forced more
range cattle to market from the north
western and north central states thar
was anticipated as a normal turmoil. The
only effect of this situation on the gen.
eral outlook as was stated at the begin
ming of the year was to hasten the time
when short market supplies would have
marked effect on price. This occurred
during the last half Of 1927 and carried
1 Rlllio CfCA lAElIIl liza WN1 NfRNSNSA
With the advance in cattle prices occur
ring without a general increase in the
whole price structure of other commodi-
ties, the gain to cattlemen was substan-
tial, in other words the higher cattle
prices were accompanied by an increase
In purchasing power Of the cattle dollar
THE general situation now in the cat
tie industry is one wherein considerable
restocking will be necessary before any
material increase in marketings can take
place. In fact some further reduction II
market supplies may result in the mex
year or two as stock Is held back for in
creasing breeding in response to the high
prices of the cycle.
I'm the national outlook 1t was stated
that beef cattle for slaughter and a'
stockers and feeders seemed reasonably
certain to meet a market In 1923 tina
will average higher than in 1897. In fact
depending upon the attitude OF beef pro-
ducers with respect to restocking, The
lowest market supplies Of the present
cycle may be two years away, which
other things being equal. would NEAR
that the highest average prices may no
be realized this side Of 1929.
"As regards production it is to be ex.
pected that the trend of production viii
be gradually upward for several years Il
come. AS this situation becomes a fac
tor in market supplies. prices may bt
expected to gradually turn downwards
Looking beyond the high point, there
fore, of the present cycle. Montana cat
tlemen should in their more distan'
plans, have in mind the recurring ma
ture Of such situations in the cattle in
dustry out of which they have jus
come"