Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-09-05
Prophets.

Somebody is either talking through
his hat" about the prospects Of party
victory in this campaign, or else Is
going 10 be terribly fooled by the re-
suits Notwithstanding the confusion
caused by the unusual conditions. the
Shistings from side to side. the pitching
Of new issues. the obvious breaking
down Of party lines in various sections,
partisan leaders are putting forth the
most confident claims If success. giving
figures, citing specific States as assured.
even giving majority figures. With the
election nine weeks away, with the
campaigning only now starting in
earnest it is nevertheless all over but
The shouting. according to these oppoS-
ing prophets, each assured that the
shouting will be On his side. Somebody
is wrong, and most decidedly so.
The other day Chairman RaSkob Of
the Democratic committee emitted
a prophecy 10 the effect that Gov
Smith was assured of 800 electoral
votes, with at least 100 in reserve as
probable. This elected much cheering
from the Democratic camp and caused
perhaps a chill among the less con-
fident Republicans, 1t evoked, however.
a chorus of loud boots from high Re-
publican sources. 1t was even styled by
one of Gov. Smiths New York City
organs as ridiculous" But Mr.. Rsskob
now returns from his Western trip, in
the course of which he uttered his
prophecy, and improves on that fore
cast by adding Indiana. Illinois and
Ohio 70 the assured Democratic States,
with a total of 81 electoral votes, max
ing 3T6 for the Democratic candidate.
II may be noted here that he has still
forgotten Pennsylvania. with which he
started on his claiming career after
Philadelphia luncheon conference.
Almost simultaneously with Mr..
Raskobs revised edition of revelations
comes a statement by Senator Capper
to the effect that Mr. Hoover is certain
10 carry every State west of the
Mississippi River This Is in direct
conflict with some of the most i'm
portant details of the Raskob claim,
although if Gov. Smith is assured of
all the States east of the Mississippi
River that Mr. Raskob has -empted
for him he can let the West go its
own way in error and still be elected.
A few hours earlier Vice Chairman
Moses Of the Republican organization
gave out an analytical estimate. State
by State. in which he conceded certain
blocks of electoral votes TO Smith and
claimed enough for Hoover to settle the
election in his favor Senator Moses
was not particularly extravagant in his
prophecy or analysis. and as to certain
States in the twilight zone of politics
ne merely manifested hope rather than
assurance. His estimate could not be
called a counterblast to the Raskob
claim or prediction, although 1t made
definitely for Republican victory
The political prophet of experience
knows full well that nobody is going to
dig up these prediction prognostica-
tons after the votes are cast and
counted. TO the discontinue Of the
wrong guesser. Sufficient unto election
day is the result thereof. and In the
cianor Of party rejoicing there is no
disposition to turn hack the leaves of
campaign history and revive memories
of errors Of Judgment of this character.
So there is really nothing risked in
making good stiff prophecy at this
stage. Such prediction may have its
value in stimulating the spirits. But
there Is some risk in too sweeping
claim of assured victory in that il may
cause a slackening of endeavor and
possibly may add to the number OF those
who. feeling assured of the result. "go
fishing" on election day.
.