Douglas daily dispatch., 1928-01-01

to mean profit, they concede that it
is reasonable act for him to accept
the profit. But they point out that
there is present the ever-dangerous
two edged knife in such market.
Everyone comedies that there is sound
basis for the belief that there will be
a firm cattle market for the next two
or three years and those who study
the fundamentals Of price making in
sist that the larger chance is in favor
of higher levels for the average price
for all cattle. If that shall be proved
accurate forecast, then the one who
contracts future delivery has probably
deprived himself of a part of the profit
he might have made merely by his de-
sire to be certain of some profit
4.4.NaughtOn's Opinion Of It
Here is an extract from an. article
by j. A. McNaughton, a recognized
writer on cattle market conditions:
"If producer will confine himself
to the production of better quality
commodity, the demand will be slim
ulated all along the line and he will
prosper by concentrating upon this one
effort, provided he allows the market
ing of his product to pass through
recognized channels which provide all
of the necessary machinery for the
carrying out of a Well-balanced dis
tribution.
There is an illustration of this in
the effort being made this season to
contract cattle for future delivery at
prices based upon present market
levels, Well-poSted observers have pre-
dicted strong and higher cattle price
levels, at least for the next few months.
Those who have closely recorded the
pulse of the market over a period of
many years state that they do not
anticipate the peak of prices win be
reached within two or three years, and
after the peak is reached the down
ward swing should be accomplished 81
a normal manner.
Must Take Long View
'It is advisable that the cattle pro-
ducers when contracting cattle ahead,
with such a market as is now being
experienced, should consider whether
or not they would have the same OPP
portunity to contract if the swing of
the market were reversed and the trend
were downward.
Producers cannot view the distribu-
ton and marketing of their livestock
for only one year. If they did, many
single years would represent disaster
for the industry, while many other
single years might bring tlnheard-of
A long period of time
must be taken into account to allow
many years the market has been weak
with a lower tendency and producers
we're not troubled to any great extent
by offers to contract their cattle ahead.
this being good business from the buy
ers standpoint The position of the
purchaser of cattle who is able to deal
at present market prices for future
delivery would seem to be d most
happy one. but the producers position
in transaction of this kind is not so
good
Advises Against Contracts
"Close observers with the best OBJ
tainable information feel that the cat
tie market is In strong position, with
the likelihood of at least maintaining
it's present position for some time to
come. If the market were weak and
the feeling of the general situation
pessimistic, caused by unhealthy con-
ditions throughout the country, or
some other good reason for a weaken
ing market, there might be some argu-
ment in favor of contracting cattle for
future delivery.
1.-THE present situation in the cattle
market seems to bring little doubt to
those who have made careful survey
Of the situation that contracting ahead
for future delivery on the part of the
producer is not well founded, is un-
economical and very likely to return
less for the producer than, would be
received upon the open market in the
next few months, when supplies which
are now being contracted are ready to
move"