The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1928-10-22
KEEPING UP
With
THE NE WIS
BY LUDWELL DENNY

Copyright scripps-Howard Newspapers.
1921
VXTASdINGTON, Oct. 22.-With
w the election only two weeks
OF, the candidates and prophets
are swinging back to the first prin-
ciple Of this campaign, which is
that Smith can not win without
carrying the normally Republican
states of the east coast. For AL has
not stampeded the west.
Smiths chance of making
clean sweep in those eastern doubt
full states is represented by the ma
tional betting odds, which now
stand 4 to l against him.
Those states are New York,
Massachusetts,, Connecticut, Rhode
Island and New Jersey. They total
eighty nine electoral votes, or
about one-third of a national
majority.
The prime Importance of that
eastern territory is attested by the
decision of both parties to concen-
trate forces there in the last fate
full fortnight of the struggle. To-
night Hoover will deliver in New
York City his most important
speech of the campaign to his larg-
est audience. Wednesday Smith
begins in Boston the closing ten
days, all of which he will devote to
the eastern sector, finishing in New
York.
AS AL told his admirers in the
middlewest last week, he is saving
himself for "the battle Of the At
lantic seaboard."
In that battle, Smith must de-
pend largely upon his personal
strength and upon issues which he
has rehashed for the last month.
Hoover is better placed, not because
he has surprise issues up his sleeve,
but because he has fresh and pow
erful reserve in such "elder states
men" as Root, Dawes and Hughes.
n
H MERGENCE Of the east as the
Edecisive battle-ground is not I'M
expected. Indeed it was upon this
basis, and this alone, that Smith
/
Of the queer paradoXes Of party his
tory is that the overwhelming dry,
anti Catholic, anti Tammany con-
vention at Houston almost without
a struggle picked the wet, Catholic,
Tammany AL.
The paradox is explained by the
knowledge of those southern poll
ticians against AL that the Demo-
Gratis could not win without carry
ing New York and other eastern
states. AL was chosen because he
was the only Democrat with even a
chance of doing that.
And now AL must make good on
the tacit understanding with which
he was given and received the nom
ination-carry the east.
If the election were tomorrow he
could not do it. At the moment,
most non-partisan reports agree
that he has only an even chance in
New York and Massachusetts, and
less than even chance in Connect.
cut. Rhode Island, and New Jersey,
Probably after fortnight's in
tensive and d-hitting campaign
ing, AIS position will be improved.
Let us say he wins New York and
Massachusetts,, with their siXty-three
electoral votes, largely because Of
Catholic and wet ballots. That isn't
enough.
TAKE New Jersey, which he can
L hardly afford to lose. There is
a mounting Hoover trend in that
state.
Turning to the west, there are
plenty of signs that the Democrats
are disappointed with the results
of Smiths two tours. They now
are. driven to the last minute eXpe-
dent Of spending from 100000 to
100000 in the grain belt, in the
hope Of picking up two or three
states, OF course, they have no
choice. For Smith, even if he holds
the. solid south and carries practi-
cally all the eastern doubtful states.
would still need such doubtful states
as Wisconsin and Missouri
In the last week the Republican
position has much improved in the
three hitherto doubtful states of
Oklahoma, Minnesota and North
Dakota, which total twenty-seven
electoral votes. Smith gains in Mis-
souri,, Wisconsin and Montana, with
a total of thirty-hve, are Offset by
Hoover gains in Oklahoma, Ken
lucky, Colorado and New Mexico.
with total of thirty-two electoral
votes.
While it is fairly certain that
Smith can not cut into western Re-
publican strength in dangerous
fashion as the situation now stands,
it is also true that Senator George
w. Norris Of Nebraska may declare
for Al between now and election.
If that happens, it is possible that
this progressive Republican leader
might swing Nebraska, Minnesota
and North Dakota to AL. That
would give AL the necessary leeway
in his eastern fight, the lack Of
which now is his most serious
handicap.