The Bismarck tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, N.D.) 1916-current, 1928-07-18
ADVANTAGE IS
GIVEN HOOVER
AT GETAW AY
Solid South Must Cast Its ia
Electoral Votes for New
Yorker
NEW YORK ED
Hoover Counting on Strong
Support in States Of
Middle West
NEW YORK NEEDED
BY RODNEY BUTCHER
(NEA Service Writer)

BY RODNEY BUTCHER
(NEA Service Writer)
Washington, July 1S.-The ques-
ton in this campaign is whether OF
not Smith can beat Hoover. The
Republicans start with the advan-
tage. The country is regarded as
normally Republican. It's an ab-
normal campaign, but who will get
the benefit Of its abnormalities?
The only possible way to guess at
the outcome is on the basis OF elec-
toral votes, Of which there are 531
In 1924 Coolidge had 1872 Of those
Davis only 1856 and La Toilette IS. In
1920 Harding had 404 and Cox 127
Smith must virtually double the Da'
Wis electoral vote in order to win;
he must take 100 away from the
Republicans, as 266 elects.
Obviously then, Smith faces great
odds. If he does win, il, can hardly
be by. more than . bare majority. AT
the moment, any effort to show how
he can win must be helped on by q
great many assumptions. We must
assume, and this seems fairly safe,
that the solid south will again cast
its ia votes for the Democratic
ticket.
Needs New York
It is also all-important that Smith
carry his own state Of New York
with as. It's not certain that he
will, but If he can't this story might
as well be ended right here. Any.
way, New York and the south would
give him 169. He ought to get the
three-vote states Of Arizona, Ne
vada and New Mexico along with
Rhode Islands five, making 173.
But let's look at Hoover. II we
start with the south's ia as . rea.
sonable certainty for Smith, We
must line up some regularly Repub-
lican states for Hoover and consider
them pretty sure to be his. Let's
gives him California, Colorado
Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine
Michigan, New Hamsphire Ohio
Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dako-
ia, Utah, Vermont, Washington
West Virginia and Wyoming. One
or two of these states might con-
ceivably 90 for Smith, but probably
won't. Their total electoral vote il
184.
Don't take all this dope too seri.
ously!)
Hoover also confidently expects tc
hold these: Illinois 20, Minnesota IL
Nebraska 8, North Dakota s. TotA
81. Grand total Of Hoover's prob.
able electoral votes, according to oul
figuring-238.
That would leave Hoover only 2s
votes sho-. Of election. We left
Smith with 173, which was 50 short
Of election.
States Unattached
The states we haven't yet as.
signed to anyone are:
East: Connecticut z, Delaware 5
Maryland 8. Massachusetts, 1s, New
Jersey II.
Border: Kentucky 13, Oklahoma
10; Tennessee IL.
West: Missouri 1s, Wisconsin 13
Montana Z.
That leaves US with 120 doubt.
full" electoral votes on our hands
Democrats in the border states say
they can hold them in the Demo.
cratic column. If we assume they
know what they're talking about, We
can give Smith IS more electoral
votes and bring him up to 208, leav.
ing us IS votes still undistributed.
Hoover, still has 238 and needs
only 2S. He might get them from
Missouri and Wisconsin and let thu
east 60 hang. Nearly all Demo
cratic calculations count Missouri
inside the Smith stockade.
The Republican managers recent.
" assembled In Warrington had nt
difficulty in deciding that the really
important battle ground Of thu
campaign lay in the east. Eastern
national committeeman claimed Il
be perturbed over the fact that thii
was wet territory and that theil
party's platform and candidate were
dry while the other party's man wal
wet. The New York, massachusetts,
and Connecticut committeeman WHIT
were the backbone Of the "draf,
Coolidge" movement in the precon
vention campaign were al afraid 9!
Smith for that reason. They tel
Coolidge would Lave . much better
chance to beat him in their statel
than Hoover.
East States Wet
Anyway, getting back to our cal
culations and remembering tina
we're trying TO prove how Smitl
: might b elected those easter
states which We haven't awarded ye
may Be regarded as wet. On th'
other hand they are normally Re
publican in presidential years
Hence we're up In the air = 70 hov
they're going to vote. e Smith ear
ried them al he would still neel
eight electoral votes. He would b
more likely to get them from Mis-
souri, than from Wisconsin. but b
might never get them ct all. j.
The reader II at liberty TO shuffl'
these figures - lEuch - he likes.
KNIFE TAKES LIFE
st. Cloud, Mimi, July 1s.@A-
BENJAMIN Hensel, sought on charg