The producers news. [volume] (Plentywood, Mont.) 1918-1937, 1928-04-13

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than it was at this time a year ago
according to the state division of pub
licity.
Grouping these factors into loca
factors and general factors we fine
among the first group: ~ The fav
Orable background of the large 1922
crop insuring ample seed for 1925
sowings and generally more favor.
able financial condition of wheat
growers than year ago; (2) A ia
Vorable supply of subsoil moisture
generally combined in most distances
with a larger amount of summer fall
low done last season for 1928 seed.
ing; 10 The apparentability of Mon
tana farmers to produce a crop in
1928 at cost no greater than in 1927
based on such factors affecting this
cost as are apparent at present.
The general factors which affect
more directly the prospective market
demand for Montana wheat, which in
themselves are more favorable than
both a month ago and a year ago are
as follows: (1) The probability of a
much heavier abandonment of winter
wheat acreage in the United States
compared with last year an average
which, if realized, would cancel the
increase in seedlings of winter wheat
last fall. Although the government
does not make its estimates of winter
wheat abandonment until May 1, all
the private reports issued to date have
noted relatively heavy winter loss
OF acreage, particularly in the soft
spring wheat areas. (2) Combining
with the first factor, the March l in
tentlons of spring wheat growers of
hard spring wheat indicated a slight
reduction in acreage intended for 1928
which, If carried out, would mean a
total wheat acreage for the United
States not larger, if as large, as in
1927. Yields of winter wheat in 1927
were two per cent smaller than the
10 year average while yields of spring
wheat were $3.50 larger. (3) The in
crease In world wheat production in
1871 over 1926 was accompanied by a
smalled production of feed crops and
rye, which condition combined with
more livestock to be fed in Elrope
has resulted in some utilization of
lower grades of wheat as substitutes
for rye and feed crops. (4) Present
SURPRISES of wheat in exporting coun-
tries IN the aggregate are very little
II any larger than a year ago with
the larger available supplies in the
United States and Canada offset nv
smaller supplies available from Ans
tralla and Russia. An important con-
trast is noted in the quality of Cana
dian wheat of the 1927 crop comnared
with that of the 1926 and 1926 crops.
inspections OF the Canadian board of
gram commissioners from August 1.
1927 to Jnuary 81, 1923 show that but
50 per cent of the 1927 crop graded
above No. compared with 40 per
cent OF the 1926 crop and sc per cent
OF the 1925 crop. No. grade was
very scarce being only IA per cent
compared with IL per cent in 1926 and
"a per cent in 1925. On this basis the
higher trend of the Canadian CONNER
clal visible supply loses some of its
usual significance as affecting demand
Tor higher grades of Montana wheat.
Such other factors in the present
outlook as are on the unfavorabIe
side may be summed up as follows.
~ Carryover of 1927 wheat in both
the United States and Canada prom
lses at present to exceed that of the
end of the 1926 season last july. I'M
less domestic disappearance and ex-
port from now on prove to be much
larger than expected. (2) Spring
wheat acreage is yet to be seeded in
both the United States and Canada
with the possibility that growers gem
orally may respond with larger
acreage than they had first intended
Winter killing and other DAMAGE
TO the winter sown crop in Europe I'M
less offset by improved conditions in
the spring, point to the possibility
OF a decreased winter wheat cron
which is strengthening factor in the
European demand situation.
On the whole the present outlook
OF the Montana wheat grower for his
1928 production would appear tn he
slightly more favorable than wear
ago, but with enough uncertain fac
tors to REQUIRE that any plans to in
crease production should be based on
ability to produce a crop at a cost as
low. as. in 1927 rather than on the
basis that the demand for 1928 wheat
will be any better in 1928 than last
year. i''''