Evening star., 1928-11-03
CAMP PA|GNS
| NEARING W|ND-UP
Hoover and Smith in Final
Formal AppedIS-ConfIict-
ING Forecasts of Election.
BY BYRON PRICE,
Associated Press Staff Writer

One of the memorable political cam
paigns OF history is ending in a dizzy
ing burst of effort and enthusiasm.
AS Hoover swings through the West,
and Smith makes his final rounds
among his neighbors in New York, mil
lions of their fellow-citiZenS join in
noiSily to lift the drama to its proper
climax. Party rallies are in progress
in metropolis and hamlet, and party
workers everywhere are lavishing advice
on every wavering voter.
Most of this tumult will end tonight,
when Smith speaks in New York City
and Hoover at Pueblo, Colo, while
-nres OF the lesser figures of the stump
wind up their speaking tours and turn
homeward to cast their own ballots
on Tuesday. 1t will remain for the
nominees themselves to sum up the ar
gument m radio addresses Monday
night.
Each Predicts Victory.
AS thy prepare to close their doors,
both Smith and Hoover headquarters
are predicting victory. AS put out for
publication, these predictions on either
side sometimes go the length of fore
casting a landslide. When they talk
privately, the estimates of party lieuten-
ants are less sweeping, but even then
each insists that enough votes have
been won to insure the election of his
candidate. These claims are advanced
earnestly and defended warmly, whether
made on behalf of Hoover or Smith.
OF course, the details of these fore
casts overlap, and both cannot be cor
rect. It has been the sort of campaign
to arouse unusual expectations, and
party leaders down along the line have
fn hnir Il
made surprising reports to their Su-
periors-reports which even the most
enthusiastic of the experienced poll
ticians hesitate to believe. Some DEM
ocratS even now are claiming PennSyl-
vania and Michigan. and some Repub-
licans are claiming Georgia and Arkan-
Sas. When such predictions are voiced
in the presence of any leader of
the opposing party, they are greeted
with ridicule. Yet they illustrate the
vague hopes which are af1oat upon
the twisting currents of this campaign.
Claims Analysed.
Even though they are so conflicting
that one set or the other must be re-
garded as untrustworthy, the more
studied predictions of the politicians, as
made privately, meet at certain points
and are worth analysis.
They disclose a general agreement
that expectations of a Hoover victory
are, based on the premise of a Repub-
lican sweep through the East and West,
enveloping the border and perhaps. a
part of the South, and that eXpecta-
tions of a Smith victory rest on a sup
position that he will hold the South,
up few additional States here and
there along the border, in the farm
country, and in the far West.
The overlapping aspects of these cal
culations point to certain States as
highly important factors in the result
States earnestly claimed by both sides
as part of the quota of victory They
forecast particularly determined bat
tie, in the very last of the campaign, |
in such Eastern States as New York, !
Massachusetts,, Maryland and Rhode |
Island; in the border States of Ken |
tucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Okla
homa; in hotly debated Midwestern |
and Northwestern States like Nebraska. |
Wisconsin and North Dakota, and in |
the far Western States, notably Mon |
tana, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. |
Where Predictions Conflict.
This list does not, of course, include
all of the States in which the hopes
of the parties overlap. 1t does include.
however, most of the States in which
the minimum claims of the more
modest of Smith and Hoover partisans
come into violent conflict. In the East,
some Democrats would claim not only
the four States named. but would add
also New Hampshire, Connecticut, Della
ware and New JerseyaSNIn the South,
some Republicans are stoutly claiming
North Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Vir-
ginia and Texas. There is a similar
situation in every section of the coun-
try, and for the first time since present
party alignmentS came into existence,
compilation of the more optimistic
Of Republican and Democratic claims
would involve almost every State in the
Union.
Not that conflicting prediction
claims are, in themselves, anything new;
the novelty this year is in the particu-
larly wide range of the conflict, and the
extraordinary reasons which underlie it.
Even in normal times, political leaders
receive over-enthuSiaStic reports now
and then from jealous party workers.
and are misled into predictions which
atterward appear foolish.
One Big Mistake Recorded.
Not many years ago presidential
nominee received a telegram on the
day before the election from a trusted
and experienced politician, saying his
State would return a favorable majority
OF more than 100000. 1t actually went
overwhelmingly the other way.
Ihere is an added reason why some
politicians habitualIy overclaim. It has
IT'S explanation in the old maxim that
m every contest, confidence is half the
pattle, and it finds it practical applica-
ZION 10 politics in the fact that there
are voters who want to be on the side
OF the winner for practical reasons, A
wise student of politics once said that
IN every election there are three parties
the Republican party, the Democratic
party, and the bandwagon party.