The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1928-10-30
KEEPING UP
With
THE NE VS.
BY LUDWELL DENNY

NSA4N4NstUC "VVe1ShCu DIS uIl-AlQerlCa1
in his Baltimore speech last night,
is helping Al much more than it is
hurting him.
This paradox is revealed by q
study of the campaign situation Ia
which the election will be deter.
mined by doubtful" states where
Catholics hold the balance of pow
err.
There can be no question that
sectarianlsm is a campaign issue,
and in a great many districts the
major issue, despite religious guar
antees of the United States Con-
stitution and despite statements BY
both parties and both candidates
disavowing that issue.
Practically all political scouts and
newspaper correspondents who have
toured the country admit that they
found violent sectarian antipathles
almost everywhere.
Because this predominantly is a
Protestant population country. and
because so many large anti-C Catholic
organizations have been active dur.
ing the campaign, there is a general
assumption that this will injurc
Smith, perhaps to the point of as
surfing his defeat.
Like many isolated political as
symptoms, this one would appear
wellfounded if it did not ignore 9TH
er conflicting factors, and if Ameri-
can presidents were elected b.
popular instead of by electoral vote
y
TINE reasons anti-Catholic activi-
4 ties cannot defeat Smith, but
actually help him, are:
Those activities are most virulent
in the south, where they are reduc-
ing, but cannot wipe out the tradi-
tionally preponderant Democratic
election majority. If Smith carries
those states, as he is expected to do,
it is of no election consequence
whatever that the normal Demo-
cratic vote is cut down by several
million.
Those activities are also dominant
in a northern bloc of states, Penn
sylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Michi-
gan, where they quite definitely re-
duce AIS chances of victory. But
the point here is that Al would
have no chance anyway of carry
ing these Republican states, with
the bare possible exception Of In
diana.
The election significance of these
ectarian activities therefore is lin
tied exclusively to the doubtful
states. And, although most Of those
doubtful states are Protestant, those
with the largest total of electoral
votes are precisely the ones such as
New York, where the pro-Catholic
vote far outnumbers the pro-klan
vote.
Keeping in mind that Hoover will
be aided by the anti-Catholic vote
in Ohio, where he needs no help,
and in North Carolina, where all
the anti Catholic agitation probably
will not be sufficient to net him a
single electoral vote there are very
ism can win for Hoover,
Those are Oklahoma 90 electoral
votes), Kentucky Q9, Tennessee
OO and possibly one or two smaller
electoral vote states. At the mo-
ment it seems that Hoover will carry
Oklahoma, largely because Of Sec
tarianism.
If he carries Kentucky, which is
very close, his edge may be at
tributed to sectarianism. The same
is true of Tennessee, though Hoover
now is not expected to pull through
in that state.
SO the gain for Hoover from the
sectarianism which he disavows may
be only 10 electoral votes, probably
will not be more than %, and can
not be over 40 at the very outside.
DUT Smith fares much better, as
ID a result of natural and newt
able reaction by Catholic and anti
klansmen against the "un-Ameri-
can" agitation which seeks to "vic-
timize" Smith. Those Catholics and
anti-klansmen may, and probably
will, be able to swing New York (45),
Massachusetts Q8), Rhode Island
60, and possibly other states to
Smith.
1t is automatic that AL can not
be elected without New York, or
even without both New York and
Massachusetts. Both of those nor
mally Republican states are so close
that even Democratic newspapers do
not put them in the certain Smith
column.
If he wins them, it fairly may be
attributed to the so-called protest
Catholic vote. There are sixty-three
electoral votes alone, without count
ing Rhode Island and other POSSIBLE
tiles.
In Massachusetts and Rhode
Island the Republican and Demo-
cratic leaders quite frankly admit in
private that the French Canadian
Catholics hold the balance Of power
Nov. g. There is a deep traditional
chasm between the French-Canadi-
an Catholics, who are Republicans
and the Irish Catholics, who are
Democrats.
But this year the political attack
on the Catholic church is causing
many, if not most, of these Repub-
lican Catholics to rally around
Smith.
And, thanks to the electoral col
lege system, one such eastern Catho-
lie is worth more to either presiden-
tial candidate than ten Ohio Metho-
dists recruited by Mrs Willebrandt
or twenty southern Baptists boiling
with Senator Helm.
-