Evening star., 1928-12-28
M|CHELET PROVES
BALLOT PROPHET
D. C. Mans Estimate of Vote
Weeks Before Election Is
Unusually Close.
BY FREDERIC WILLIAM VILE.


Simon Michelet of Washington
president of the National Get-Out-the-
Vote Club, is an election prophet ex-
traordinary. Nineteen hundred and
twenty-eight was not q particularly
fruitful year for professional political
prophets, but Mr.. Michelet stands forth
as a prognosticator vindicated.
Toward the end Of September, weeks
before November 8, he predicted q
bumper crop of votes at the presidential
election. Many others did likewise, but
nobody risked exact figures. Michelet
did. He said there would be q round
total of 37,000,0 900 votes for presidential
candidates. AS the Associated Press
carefully compiled figures have just
shown, there we're exactly 36,796, $50.
Michelet, in other words, guessed within
q round 100000 of the exact aggre-
gate, which was hardly more than one
half Of per cent out Of the way. His
estimate preceded by several weeks the
announcement that 100000 voters
had registered.
Michelet. now a practicing lawyer in
Washington, has been a well known
figure in national politics for Is years.
He came here from Minnesota as pri-
vate secretary to the late Senator Knute
Nelson, who served in the upper house
for 28 continuous years. During his
last two sessions in Congress Nelson
was chairman of the Senate judiciary
committee. Michelet gives Ed" Smith,
famed Minneapolis Republican leader,
chief credit for whatever political acu-
men he himself claims. He calls Smith
"the boss emeritus" and considers him
one of the ShrewdeSt minds that ever
played the great game of politics. Smith
for years was Republican State chair.
man in Minnesota or national COM
mitteeman from that State. The
Gopher commonwealth has never gone
anything but Republican In national
/. elections The G. o. P. holds Smith
mainly responsible for that unbroken
record.
Formed Vote Club.
It was in 1928 that Michelet con-
ceived the idea of specializing in a
warfare on vote-Slacking. His many
seasons Of campaigning on behalf Of
Knute Nelson and alongside Smith
taught him that the stay-at-home vote
was formidable and evil thing in a
democracy. He formed the National
Get-Out-the-Vote Club" and became
Its president, board Of directors, general
manager and sole financial backer. The
organization still exists in its original
form. He proceeded on the theory that
q country which only votes so per cent
Is likely to be run, now and then, on
so per cent lines.
81 soon found that my enthusiasm
Tor what seemed q national patriotic
cause" says Michelet, twas not widely
contagious. Democratic politicians
were enthusiastic in getting out Demo-
cratic votes, and Republican politicians
were interested at campaign time In
getting out Republican votes Now and
then, some man or woman, or editor, or
'schoolboy, or college professor, has seen
mt to reveal interest or express COM
mendation. I've always welcomed signs
lof interest from school and college peo-
pie and from students. Seeds planted
in such quarters are likely to be pro-
iductive in the long run. / assume my
experience has been the usual history
OF movements for social improvements.
The Self-appotnted patriot must get his
chief satisfaction and applause out of
his work. So I've gone onsfor fiYe years,
paying all the expenses distributing the
monthly or annual bulletins free, and
today am getting out double the orig
1nal work and covering all phases Of
the national political field, Just as
though I had Federal appointment,
salary and expense appropriation"
Based Estimate on Hunch.
"How did you work out your s7,000,-
O00-vote for President?" Micheiet was
asked.
1T was based on the hunch," he ex-
planned, that the normal increase in
the popular vote In the four years, plus
the unparalleled passions engendered
by the Hoover Smith campaign, would
produce not less than an 5000, ,000-vote
increase over 1924.
There is another estimate I made
later, on the closely related item Of
total number Of voters going to the
polls and casting ballots. I placed that
at $4,000, 900 to 40,000,000. It needs to
be remembered that approximately 8
per cent of ballots cast and counted are
incomplete for such a high ONCE as
that Of President. Erroneous and par
tally blank ballots account for the dis
crepancy between total ballots cast and
total counted in the popular vote for
President
(CopyriRht. 1920