Evening star., 1928-06-03

NeTSlal SnaQoWS before. BOtn
i as to the presidential nominee
and the platform on which he
will stand. the issue is enshrouded in
doubt that battles all prophecy of the
outcome. This writer remains con-
vinced that Herbert Hoover of Califor-
MIA, despite the terrific eleventh-hour
drive which his antagonists have
launched against him, will emerge as
the conventions chosen candidate for
President.
Only one contingency seriously threat
ems that prospect-the lingering hope
of the anti-Hoover allies that CalVin
Coolidge will consent to be drafted
into denomination On that score, too,
this observer has a definite CONVICTION,
namely. that before the Kansas CITY
convention has passed into history the
President will once agaln-ano tnls
time with unouestionable finailty-de-
cline to lead the Republican party IN
the 1928 campaign.
The very intensity OF the movement
To stop" Mr.. Hoover makes II possible
to epitomize in simple terms the con-
vention-eve situation Wnlcn II over
shadows. TabulationS OF delegate
strength mean relatively httle' II one
attempts to set it down state py osate.
There are so many uninStructed oeIe-
cations and vet so many in which TINS
or that candidate-principally Hoover-
has considerable known support. tnat
cslcrIatioYls in advance OF the frst Cal-
lot are sheer guesswork. Roughly, one
~ tuo sets of figures may be accounted
&c accurate. Hoover, for instance mas
defnitelv pledged 10 him 400 delegates
,y1ore or less. Lowden'S pieogeo totaI;
T1ainlv corn belt votes, ranges arouIao
200. more or less. So-calleo IavoIioe-
son candidates. reveal the 1oi1o..Las l:-.;a
nledsed delegates: Watson, 50. CuI.s'
73; Norris. 10; Borah, H. ana con' -
Convention Situation.
There will be / .ose delegates at Kansas
cftv. A majority of 545 Is necessary
y, nominate. Neither Hoover nor Low
Se.1 js likely to enter the convention
,s-3tniy early reach Of the requlslte
*c-a1 and Of course, none Of the quintet
of "favorite sons" viii approach ~.
The combined Hoover-Lowoen-iaV
son vote. as far as Il can at TINS nouf
oe reckoned, viii be somewhere between
ZOO and 750. That leaves some gay
votes as a balance Of power, which,
ruTrTe either en- bloc or in any cons.d-
erahle proportion in any direction,
might easily determine the conventions
decision.
THE balance -of-powe vote consists
overwheIningly Of the delegates Of the
great States of New York. Pennsylvania
ard Massachusetts, aggregating 20o.
All three Of these delegations go 10
Kansas City nonijnally uninstTucteo.
nut admittedly under the control OF
their respective State leaders, VIZ. Ma
t4onal Committeeman Charles D. Hiiies
Of New York. Secretary Of the Treas
my Andrew W. Mellon of Pennsylvania
- ~
Butter Of Massachusetts. Mellon. But
5er and TiiIies-to name them IN the
order Of their relative importance n
sg1e probable Kansas City scheme-Til
be the big three" Of the convention.
They viii enact there, prospectiyely. the
roles played IN earlier g, o. p. Gays by
PARTY giants like Marx Hanna. BoieS
Penrose and Murray Crane.
Control the Situation.
with an @EninstFucted' block Of 20G
votes al their disposal MeSSrs. Mellon,
Butter and Esilex obviously viii be IL
positton-to Use q well known conTen-
tton i6som-to throw forked lightning
al Kansas City. They can miuTnine the
Hoover heavens or becloud them al viii.
They could almost certainly assure his
nomination on the first ballot, IL they
wished. They could almost, but not
quite. as surely prevent the CalifoFnian'g
victory. or b. pogtp0nfag il Indefinitely
give cumulative encouragement 10 the
znti-Hooyer allies and eventual oDpoF-
t1ysty TO nominate dark horse WHAT
the big three actually intend " DO
az Kansas City is on the lap Of the
aocS--z pys~c0nyention mystery they
alone can ury2Yel. Each happens 70
oe particularly secyetive political per
Sorslity and adept AZ keeping his cwn
counsel
Secretary Hoover's managers believe
that the kew YORK, PENNSYLVANIA and
Massachusetts delegations sooner or
later vii be found voting for the Cal
6orntSD, They o&se tiaelx confidence
On certain concrete fac.g New York
NeSc no presidential preference pri-
EoSr1ea, bsat Hoover strength is acknoTd-
scSes by sn authority Ike George K
Morris. Republican State chairman. to
oe Widespread, The Commerce chief
Ae&ders. quitting Il In ag1zfes. say il
represents - least IS votes o. the Ena-
pre- Ssate 6elegstson o. -.
penHsYiyanlz Situation.
III Pennsylvania. tens 81 Thousands
~ Republican y0segE 10 the Lszy prl~
mary wrote in" HooYers name on
tge presidential preference b&1lot. t.
IRE practical exclusion d any other
candidate. A few days aaDer, when tfae
Pennsylvania beIegataon met in caucus
* Philadelphia. EecsetaFg Mellon, H.
escssnz IL cfazlrnaY1si1lp, mace lis
zan122 announcement gs3&t AF. f5ooxer
c2yses nearer " measuring 0p " "
gss0.sezn requirements tt5an any can
c@1&8e pow Ia the Gel1s Coupled with
rs9e Ezisf1sglzn's popular YDse In tho
Fegglsy2ssIaaz primary, n1s statement
Dy Gecaet2xy Mellon IL still Aooked pDon
sE agFtsfY1eH him definitely with the
IsooYeE fortunes, even tSEogga 81 q Sub
segl1ent newspaper anserY1eg t!ae Treas
g:y Ae21 51antee ~ ti1e continuing
ErISSsDi33tg " & C<ygabcge draft !"
Tfse KzsssGfas1Set1g presidential pref
erenGe primary clsciossc HooyeF sup
part Throughout the STATE Republican
yftegs here. Ct in Pennsylvania, wrote
r. tAs fse<ye1zFyE nA83e extensively,
gqlgsGg ~ for fgsne q Doazl fer an ezceas
II eng faFoT fnUE expressed either
Tor Fre8aceDg Collscge oY ylce Pre&a~
6ef, Ut vet, NTH ~ wllose names we're
wFissen 1a@ NJ voters, hstb9D&l Chair
nazn EIC3es, y goes without saying.
wD@ic prefer ne renoosrztao1 II pr.
g<>9ilTGs ~ tbs Seieeg3gga ~ Sny otE3sE
canc16z5<. Yes. bSfrstaz tsaz4 possibility
Ns, E2ssF n2s Aate5y beegl hesat1ec
30 n@ oSG et&sk, Gke SeeresSFy GeI-
M a. Z f&19YeE man,
sDeeataslsn a. " President.
These usgFs or less pzIDzsyse faAs& IL.
fssf Gs3yegs98sE s3t9ztson hayskz keefs
~ IgNg, b eEakeDseaef IL torced lnt1
t5Ae realm q speculation &Ec ezDsaaa~
tseD. rg@e1l&&son il required with
fegagf ~ President C1Igjlcge &ggc .
~cgsft~ EzyaSES1sou Il gaee1s1 ~ i3-
tefpEet me Intensive effof1 " present
EeeEetzfy ts1oYfrS EDsnlAat TIN I1kae
mo Issues are directly related, Tf9e
Draft aI91I. 3n ~Daea Kfgsgg 4eilegs
gs1tAef zgs1 fz1iles aFe sfscl81e1 gy ez-
Zokents - ts1e tfss1gy tsal KF. C1>Glsoze