Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-07-22
RADIO WILL BE HARBINCER
OF FRICID ARCTIC STORMS
Daily Reports Of Weather From Point
Barrow Will Aid Bureau in
Forecasting Work.

morning as soon as those from NEARBY
points in the United States.
Thus Forecasters Mitchell and Weight
man will be able to plot more accu-
rately the itinerary of the disturbances
from the Arctic ice fields, and to form
their Judgment of The approaching
storms with greater confidence ana
wider vision.
The weather Bureau for some time
has been receiving valuable reports
from the Hudson Bay station. thanks
to the courtesy of the Canadian au-
thorities. The Canadian Department
of National Defense has radio stations
at Nottingham Island Wakeharn ana
Fort Burwell, the last-named being at
the Atlantic side OF the bay. some
concern was felt here recently over re-
ports that tho Canadian ministry was
considering abandonment OF these sta
tions. but this feeling has been some
what allayed by subsequent ndications
that at least two of them will remain
in operation. 1t is hoped here that the
Fort Burwell station will be one OF those
retained.
Develops New System.
With the gradual elimination from
maps of the vague portions III tne
whimsical Arctic. the forecasters nave
been able to develop a new system OF
plotting weather disturbances, leaolns
to longer range forecasts.
The Weather Bureau for many years
has been putting out weekly outlook,
predicting probable weather and tenn
perature changes for the following week
| from Monday to Saturday. Tnese QUIZ
looks were based Jointly on maps OF the
Northern Hemisphere and on pressure
graphs at certain weather stations. Inc
| forecasters admitted that these fore
| casts we're far from satisfactory:
With more data available, however,
Forecaster Mitchell has devised plan
for carefully mapping. from day to day.
| the movement of high and low pressure
| areas across the North American con-
! tinent and at the end OF the week
| nerusinp the results and computing
| therefrom with remarkable success the
| nrobable location of these d1sturpanceS
| a week in the future.
AFTER a more or leSs thorough study
of the Northern Hemisphere maps, tne
| locations of the centers OF ootn
| cyclones and 'anticyclones likely 70 AZ,
| feet the Eastern half OF the united
States are predicted and entered ON q
chart for each day for week IN ao-
lance . Mr. Mitchell explains IF this
| mart of the work Is done more or less
accurately (and it is possible to attain
| fair degree of accuracy. 1t Is then
| not so dificult TO proceed with the next
stage In the preparation OF the forecast
| for a week ahead"
72 Per Cent Correct.
Ont of 46 practice forecasts Of tenn
neratllre for a week in advance, Is we're
considered satisfactory from the fore
casters standpoint, Mr.. Mitcnen oe-
| clares. Only Is of the offictal outlooks
/ issued under the old system during the
same period were found to be satisfac-
tory. In checking on the accuracy OF
these predictions a rieidly critical atti-
tude was assumed. II rain was pre-
developed a few minutes after midnight
of the following day. the SPECIFIC fore
cast for the previous day was .cOnsid-
| cred a failure. Under this system OF
| rating the results of the tests, the fore
casts for 276 days, issued from two TO
seven DAYS in advance, we're correct for
20l days, or an average Of accuracy OF
728 per cent. a.
It win be seen from these state
ments that the popular belief to the
effect that the Weather Bureau Is a
disbeliever In long-range torecaSttng Is
not well founded.
Inc bureau experts ucNcE have u4S-
counted long-range forecasting as a
scientific possibility. hait have held that
until the scientific phases of the prob
lem have been perfected accurate long
range predictions are impossible.
Smithsonian Aids.
The Smithsonian Institution, under
| the leadership of Secretary Abbot Is
devoting good deal Of attention to the
science of long-rsnge forecasting.
through worldwide studies Of solar
variation. DR.. Abbot Is hopeful that
| from these researches viii come dis
| coveries that viii enable forecasters to
delve much farther into the mysteries
of future weather than now Is possible.
In the meantime the American pub
| lie will have to be satisfied with the
| week advance forecasts furnished by
| Uncle Sans oft-malsgned but never
| theless sage and dependable experts at
the Weather Bureau.