davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
Evening star., 1928-12-31

production plus carry-over), estimated
about at 1,500,G90 bales less than last
year, the market price of cotton only
Just succeeded in crawling above the
2O-cent figure at the close of November.
During the marketing season Of the past
four months millions of bales have
passed from producing to consuming
channels between Is cents and 10 cents,
though the worlds supply of American
cotton crop plus carry-over, is consider
ably smaller than a year ago, when the
department suggested that 90 cents to
25 cents was likely to prove a higher
level than could be permanently main
tanned
But before reviewing the events lead
ing up to this years reduced supply Of
raw material, one other phase of the in
terest taken by Congress in the subject
OF cotton should be noted as an out
standing feature of 1923.
Since the passage of the cotton fu-
lures act in 1916, regulating the ex-
changes and specifying the various
grades and staple that can be legally
delivered on contract and requiring that
all cotton so delivered shall first pass
official inspection, great changes have
occurred both at home and abroad.
Northern mills have been moved South.
The steadily expanding area of cotton
cultivation to the westward shifted the
center of production farther and farther
inland. Gulf ports have handled an
increasing percentage of the crop, and
the great port Of Houston has been
opened up, rivaling Galveston and New
Orleans.
Evening star., 1928-12-31

regulation that even the most optimistic
Specuiator was unable TO paint a rosy
future for them.
1t is quite different with stocks rep
resenting the radio and the airplane
industries. In the mood of Wall Street
during the year just closing there was
no limit whatever to the possibilities
of these stocks. Notice, too, that the
situation is in fact highly favorable in
regard to both. If one is inclined to
find fault with the market, he can only
do it on the ground that the enthusiasm
was carried to excess. It is simply
question as to whether or not the dis
counting of the future was overdone
and not a question as to the pleasing
prospect itself.
Old Rules Forecast Prosperity.
Or consider the electric light and
power stocks. Here there Is regulation
just as there is In the railroad field,
but there are offsetting considerations.
Electric light and power faces no COM
petition such as the transportation in
terests are meeting. 1t Is an unthreat-
ened natural monopoly, for the output
and services of which new uses are
being found daily. Public utility stocks
may have been put too high, but If so
1t was not because there Is any argu-
ment about their steady expansion, for
as long time as any one can now
forsee. Electric manufacturing stocks
are In the same category.
If, then, the advance was logical even
though excessive. what is the inference
with regard to the business future? It
IS an old theory that the stock market
forecasts the course of trade, starting
its rise before prosperity has made its
appearance and reaching climax, long
before business activity does the same.
In the same way the market turns
downward while there is still no cloud
in the industrial sky. Probably there
are those who in these times are Skepti-
cal as to the accuracy of the markets
provision. Those who do hold to the
old view will have to admit the market
Of 1928 seems to predict an era of I'M
precedented good times in these United
States of ours.
Evening star., 1928-12-31
FARMERS STATUS
CONTINUES TO GAIN
Advance in Purchasing Power
of Products and Better
Crops Aid TiIIers.
BY w. M. JARDINE,
Secretary OF Agriculture.

BY the Associated Press.
American agriculture is in better
shape than commonly supposed.
This is attested by the recent advance
in the purchasing power of It's products,
by its progress in mechanization, in the
improvement of crops and live stock, and
by its increasing cooperative control
over marketing.
Each season inevitably sees the over
production of certain crops, but agri-
culture as a whole adjusts supply to
demand with constantly increasing skill,
as is evidenced by the fact that it has
regained more than three -fourths of
the buying power lost per unit of its
products in the postwar price decline.
Readjustments Made.
Great readjustments have been made
in farm enterprises since the war, gen.
orally in a manner approved by eco
nomic science and Vindicated by cash
results.
Farmers do not willfully ignore sup
ply and demand conditions. Some
branches of our agriculture have been
expanded considerably since the war,
but this is not necessarily evidence that
sion were i'll advised.
Expansion and development are as
good ground for inferring health and
vigor in agriculture as in other indus
tries. The progressive American farmer
puts his faith in science and mechani-
cation, and thus armed feels we'll
equipped for the competitive struggle.
Result of Energy.
In large measure the recovery made
by American agriculture from the post
war depression is the result of the
farmers energy and enterprise This
should not cause us to conclude that
no assistance need be given. The post
war depression had complex economic
and social causes, and the Nation must
accept its share Of responsibility in
seeking and applying sound and ade-
quate relief.
1t is well to bear in mind, neverthe-
less, that the most powerful remedial
agency has been set in motion by the
agricultural industry itself through in
creased efficiency and better adjust
ment of crop enterprises to market re-
quirementS.
Any governmental action that may
be taken should strengthen and not
weaken the curative influences brought
into play by the farmers themselves.
Evening star., 1928-12-31

scope of the Curb Markets operations
were nothing less than phenomenal.
It was ON June 81 1921, that the
Curb formally opened its doors in the
edif1ce it now occupies and commenced
operations as an indoor stock market
Its increasing scale of operations can
be gauged by the increase in its activi-
ties during the past eight years. In
1921 the total volume of stocks dealt IN
was l5,500,000 shares, with transactions
i'll bonds involving S25,500,000. This
was increased in 1922 to 2l,700,000
shares and a bond total of $55 5000, 900.
In 1923 the total share volume jumped
to 50,900,000, or more than double that
of the preceding year, while total trans
actions in bonds Swelled to 100000 600.
This was increased in 1924 to 72,000,-
900 shares and 5000 100000 in bonds.
The following years saw the trading
total rise steadily until in 1928 it
reached the new record peak of 200,-
100000 shares Of stock and $825 000,-
900 in bonds.
Rise Twice Interrupted.
The prolonged bull campaign which
carried through the laEter part of 1927
continued throughout 1928, with but
two major Interruptions. With back
ground of unrestricted credit available
for speculative purposes, there ap-
peared to be nothing on the horizon
to halt the momentum which the Sc
curities markets had gathered. Invest
ment yields OH high-grade bonds and
preferred stocks declined to a level
where they no longer were considered
attractive. The bulk of the demand
subsequently shifted to common stocks,
which offered opportunity for profit be-
cause of increasing earnings and ex-
panding business operations.
The Interruptions to the bull move
ment came first in June and then in
December. And in each instance 1t was
in the Curb Market that the first warn
ing signal was sounded. The June
break, which carried prices down vio-
lently on the Stock Exchange, had its
inception in sudden and drastic de-
cline in Bancitaly shares on the Curb.
Repeated warnings by officials Of the
company that there was nothing In the
situation of the corporation to warrant
the rapid advance in the market value
of the stock went unheeded. From a
low Of 853s in 1927 the price scared to
223 in 1928 before the bubble burst.
The decline never ceased until the price
reached the 100 level.
Spectators Rush to Cover.
This incident threw a scare into the
speculative element as to what might
be expected to occur in other pool and
Evening star., 1928-12-31
ECONOMIC FORCES
IN i. S. REVIEWED
Bank Credit, Trade Condi-
tions, Crop Output, Etc.,
Cited in Summary.
BY WILLIAM F. WHITING,

United States Secretary of Commerce.
BY the Associated Press.
Some of the more important eco
nomic forces which dominate the busi-
ness situation as we enter the new
year are credit conditions, the degree
of accumulation of merchandise stocks
and of speculation in them, the size of
the crops and our current industrial
output, the rate Of wages and volume
of employment and the prospects of
foreign trade.
With respect to credit conditions 1928
has been an extraordinary year. The
Autumn of 1927, continued during the
versal in the easy money situation that
had prevailed for several years.
Public attention has been fixed on
the rise in the rates on Stock Exchange
90-day time loans from 44 per cent in
January to 7l2 per cent in the early
Autumn, and the even greater rise in
call money rates.
Bank Credit Ample.
It is well, however, to note that bank
credit for commercial purposes has been
in ample supply at rates ranging from
less than u per cent higher in South
ern and Western cities to slightly over
per cent in New York City, while
open-nlarket rates for commercial pa
per have increased by only ~ per
cent during the year.
Agricultural output during the year
was about 5 per cent larger than in
1927, and there was an even greater
expansion in manufacturing production,
but neither stocks of raw materials nor
of manufactured goods have shown any
general tendency to accumulate. There
is no considerable speculation in COM
rnodities, and wholesale prices average
about the same as year ago.
Wages continue at a high level and
unemployment has been reduced to a
minimum. There has been a continued
demand for additional workers by mer-
camille establishments, hotels and the
automotive industry, and factories have
once more been increasing the number
on their payrolls.
Labor conflicts in the coal and cotton
textile industries were settled during
the past year, and relations in most
sections of the labor world are now
amicable.
Auto Production High.
Activity in the automotive and con.
struction industries has been sustained
uAA0 ID PhA ViSNAoAAJ AAOtCWOA U1lys AubO-
mobile production has been at higher
level in recent months than at any
earlier period, and contracts for future
construction have been substantially
greater than in the corresponding periot
a year ago.
Production Of many related products
such as iron and steel, cement, gaso.
line and rubber tires, has been stimu.
lated as result of these developments
The textile and coal industries, how.
ever, still lag behind.
Foreign as well as domestic demand
for the products of our farms and fac.
tories is steadily expanding During
the past year there has been an excep.
tionally large growth of our exports oi
finished manufactures, especially auto.
mobiles, machinery and petroleum
products.
Ii general it may be stated that
both industry and trade are exception
ally active as we enter 1929.
Evening star., 1928-12-31

around the first Of February, 1928.
This price prediction caused a storm
Of protest and members of Congress
were bombarded by letter and telegram
from every section of the country, heap
ing anathemaS upon the heads of the
bureau officials as being responsible for
falling prices and the resulting none
tary losses.
AS matter of fact, in view of the
10000, ,000-bale crop of 1928, succeeded
by the serious overproduction of 1926,
the world was so stocked with both
goods and reserves of raw material that
there was no economic justification for
a rise III prices Of more than 100 per
cent over the previous year. Market in
terests appeared to forget that less than
II months before aid of the Govern
ment had been invoked to prevent wide
spread decentralization in the South,
owing to distress caused by a larger
supply Of cotton than the world could
possibly look after. Well posted au-
thorities had reached the conclusion
that Is cents to 20 cents, as contraSted
with 11L2 cents in New York in the
Fall of 1926, represented a fair and
equitable price for both producer and
consumer.
Prophecy Proves Accurate.
Though Washington officials had
merely given circulation to. facts quite
well authenticated by past experience. it
became necessary to legislate against a
repetition of any price forecast in the
future. The motive of the prediction
was to place all the facts before the
grower in order that he might secure
the advantages of prices then current
and sell rather than hold back his cot
human affairs are subject to error, Con-
gress decided to take no chances for
the future, though in this particular in
stance the prophecy was 100 per cent
accurate
How we'll founded In economic laws
that view had been was fully demon
strated this Fall when, with supply
Evening star., 1928-12-31
BULLS SCORE RECORD STOCK YEAR, BOND TRADERS FIGHT FL
High Spots of the Business Year

with their affairs in worse condition
than a year ago.
Commerce and trade suffered no set
back from the widespread practice OF
selling goods on the installment plan,
although such sales totaled $10,000,-
100000.
There was no lack of funds to finance
any legitimate expansion Of commerce,
agriculture or industry, despite the
money poured into the stock market.
Expansions we're not excessive nor
did production greatly outrun consump-
ton except in the worst situated indus
tries such as coal, textiles, shipping, oil,
sugar and paper.
Tourist business did not drop. In fact
it showed marked gain for the year,
especially in foreign travel.
Production of commodities gives no
indication of drop.
There is no sign that the new
administration will do anything to
change the basic business situation.
The automobile and steel businesses
face what may prove their biggest pro-
duction year.
Business now placed assures capacity
production for many months to come in
the major industries.
Unforeseen weather conditions, crop
progress, and other factors may change
the situation despite all the favorable
indications now so freely exposed to
view.
Evening star., 1928-12-31
Utilities Score High.

OtlHtleS score High.
Probably better showing would be
made If earnings per share were used
as the measuring rod instead of
dividends; and still prices would be
seen to be unwarrantedly high The
public utilities would make the most
remarkable showing on this score.
Many of them sold at one time or
another at 20 or 80 or even more
times earnings per share The rail-
road stocks were not inflated at all in
proportion to industrials or utilities.
Such readjustment as may be neces-
sary here will be due to money rates
and not to earnings
Aside from money, the outlook is
favorable. If the stock market declines
1t will not be because of industrial de-
preston, present or prospective Nor
will it do assume that the market pays
no attention to trade conditions. What
ever eXtravagances may have been COM
mitted during the rise III stocks of
1928, they were not due to reckless
bidding up Of issues representative of
businesses in an unfavorable position
In this respect the market was as
logical as its most severe critic could
demand.
To take only few instances, there
was no speculation for the rise of any
considerable moment in the shares of
the sugar producers, in the shares of
the railway equipment manufacturers
| or in the shares of the coal producers.
More or less the same is true of the
textiles. In other words the market
left strictly alone the stocks of COM
panies about the future of which there
was any reasonable doubt.
Rails Are Neglected.
Instead, speculation centered on pub
| lie utilities, ON aeronautical stocks, on
| industrial issues and, in the closing
months of the year, on copper equities.
I AT intervals there was some interest
shown in the rails but never on any
such scale as in the rest of the list.
Commentators have wasted many words
, trying to explain the relative inactivity
of the railroad stocks, but it was a very
simple matter. The rails carry no ap-
peal to the imagination except in the
matter of mergers and as to these the
attitude of the Interstate Commerce
Commission was discouraging. The
| railroads are hedged about with sc
many restrictions in the way of public
Evening star., 1928-12-31
Cotton Market Affected by Farm Problem

of the general subject cotton has had
it's full share. In retrospect, this fea-
ture of the years events transcends in
Importance the mere record OF price
movements. In order to obtain the
proper background it is necessary to
recast briefly what happened during
the closing months of 1927.
The crop that year had proved a
short one, only about 12,750,000 bales,
and on what ultimately turned out to
be false premises a general advance in
prices had occurred during August and
early September. The contrast between
the 1926 record yield Of 17,750,000 and
the succeeding crop, 100000 bales less,
had inflamed the speculative mind Dis
astrous floods in the Mississippi Valley
at time when mills of the world were
consuming more American cotton than
ever before created alarm over the out
look.
When statisticians in the various cot
ton centerS counted the actual bales
still left unconsumed from the previous
enormous crop, it was found that the
worlds carry over was in the neighbor-
hood of 7,750,000, or about 100000
above the 10-year average. This meant
that the total actual supply was not the
12,750,000 bales produced last year plus
an average reserve, but really crop
equal to 15,250,000.
Price Prediction Attacked.
Early in September the Bureau OF
Economics, one of the important
branches of the Department of Agricul-
ture, issued a report of its experts stat
ing that careful examination of cot
ton prices over a period of years indi-
Gated a trend toward lower level.
These studies were based on the work.
ing out Of supply and demand in the
market price, influenced by certain
general conditions surrounding the cot
ton industry. The market had already
begun to recede from an extreme price
of Is cents made a few days previous
to the report, working steadily lower.
contracts in New York touched II cents
Evening star., 1928-12-31
BY ]. C. ROYLE.

America broke all records for promo
tion, production and profits in 1928.
Even the banner year of 1925 and the
wild orgy of buying of 1920 were over
Shadowed
The total income Of the country
approximated 10000, ,00O 900. The farm
ers gained over 5000, 900, 900 in purchas-
ing power. Retail trade aggregated
$4,000 100000 in volume.
Railroad car loadings were heavy,
winding up with a peak movement as
the year closed. Operating efficiency
gained 26 per cent and net operating
income about As per cent.
Mail and express movements were
heavier than ever before. Freight move
ment by truck progressed over a larger
mileage-270, 900, and air mail routes
now total 14,502 miles, with 102 station
stops.
The year wound up in a furor of
holiday buying in which the sales ran
approximately Is per cent higher than
in the big year of 1927.
Foreign trade left the United States
with a balance on the right side of the
ledger between exports and imports of
about $600,000000.
Not all industries we're prosperous but
only two or three, chief Of which were
paper and sugar, wound up the year
Evening star., 1928-12-31

the fourth quarter totaled 64,877,432,
an increase of some $4,000 over
the previous quarter and $9,000,00 over
the corresponding period last year.
Final quarter disbursements are the
largest ever recorded in any single
quarter since dissolution of the old
Standard Oil Co. in 1911.
Many Foreign Issues Added.
During the past year the Curb has
taken on more of an international
aspect. Many issues of foreign origin
have been added to the list. There
are now traded in through the medium
OF certificates of deposit more than so
foreign company issues having O. total
capitalization Of over 100000, 900 shares,
with a market value of more than
$4,000, 100000.
More than 40 cities outside Of New
York are now supplied with the Curb
ticker system and plans are under way
for extension OF this service as far
West as the Pacific Coast and as far
South as Florida. Arrangements were
completed just before the year end
for the installation of a special ticker
which will be used for the transmits
sion Of sales volume in order to tighten
the burden carried by the regular
ticker.
At the close Of 1927 seats on the
Curb Exchange could be purchased for
$4,000. They now command $170, 600.
with few offered at that price. Current
prices represent an aggregate value of
$93, SOC, 900 for all memberships. When
the Curb Exchange opened for trading
IN 1921 memberships could be obtained
for as low as $3,750
There are now approximately 1.745
stocks, $50 domestic bonds and $50 for
eign bonds on the Curb trading list.
OF the total number Of stocks there
remain only IS In the so-called penny"
class. This is the direct contrast to
former years, when the bulk of the
Curb trading was in issues selling be-
low the dollar level,
Evening star., 1928-12-31


rials for its profits and the millions
in the South to whom cotton produc-
tion means the very essentials of ex-
istence, the year 1928 has been filled
with anxiety, interest and fulfllment.
Not in a decade has one session of
Congress appointed so many commit
tees for investigating subjects connected
with cotton Investigations not only OF
its own authorized departments, but of
the exchanges as marketing channels
for a commodity representing billion
and quarter dollars to the Southern
producer. Months were devoted to
hearings in both the House and Senate
in an effort to sift evidence secure data
and bring about such changes in Fed
eral statutes as were considered neces-
sary to render laws more responsive to
the constantly evolving methods of
modern business.
At no period in the history Of the
country has the farming problem re-
ceiYed as much publicity, and as part
Evening star., 1928-12-31
Rail Passengers Less.

Revenue passenger miles of class /
railroads in the first nine months of
1928 declined Sc per cent from 1927,
the Bureau of Railway Economics re-
ports, and if the less in passenger
traffic continues during the last quar-
ter it is expected passenger revenue
miles will be 33 per cent below the
1920 record and lowest Of any year
since 1909. With the exception of
1928. each year since 1920 has shown
a decline.
Evening star., 1928-12-31

ton DUNG 1928.
When compared
" i t h 100000
share days and
stocks of various
chain store and in
dustrial concerns
skyrocketing 200,
300 and even 400
per cent during the
course Of the year
the quiet cotton
market has proved
strikingly lacking
in dramatic fea-
lures. But to the
great textile indus
try that depends
upon an ample sup
ply of reasonably
Evening star., 1928-12-31
BY GEORGE T. HUGHES
,ec,al I1,snstcb N The s,sr

Special Dispatch to The star.
n YEW YORK, December 31.-
Punctuated by two reactions,
one severe in June and one
violent in December, the stock
market of 1928 passes into his
tory as the greatest bull movement on
record. Never before were so many
Evening star., 1928-12-31
INTENSE TRADE RIVALRY
AFFECTS BOND DEALINGS
Convertible Issues Have Been Favored
by Traders During Year-Money
Rates Depress Sales.
BY CHARLES F. SPEARE.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
n YEW YORK, December 31.-Buoy-
M ant. of great size, its prestige
VI at home and abroad increased
/ by its ability in the first half
of 1923 to absorb enormous
amounts of low interest bearing issues,
the American bond market since July
has turned completely around, en-
Evening star., 1928-12-31

countering nearly
all of the obstacles
that at some time
confront the in
vaStment situation.
1t ends the year
with underwriting
houses and dealers
bewildered and un-
certain as to the
future of their bus
mess.
1t has been a
year of intense
competition from
every quarter. This
was first between
issuing house S
themselves W h o
went out after new
Evening star., 1928-12-31
PHONE OUTLOOK BRIGHT.

During 1928 the Bell system has had
a satisfactory growth, particularly in
long distance business, according to
Walter S. Clifford, president of Ameri-
is every indication this growth will con-
tmue in 1929, he asserts.