Milford chronicle., 1928-11-02
CHAS. WARNER SEES
BIG HOOVER VICTORY
ON POLLS Tuesday
rcontinssd from 6rsr pagel

TWO weeks ago it showed 36.4 per
cent Last week it showed 81 per
cent This week the result is 37.7
ner cent. Correspondingly, a gradu-
al loss is shown in Smith support
since two weeks ago the Republi-
cans of 1924 who now propose to
vote for Smith amounted to 23.5 per
cent Last week it was 1872 per
cent. This week it is % per cent
fiat. Throughout this period the
Literary Digest poll has constantly
reflected an increased percentage ol
city votes in its straw ballot. Hence
the above comparison of percentages
is highly significant as showing the
gradual change in sentiment To-
wards Hoover.
Nationally speaking, if we Apply
this weeks total of 37.7 per cent 10
Hoover and 2S.e per cent to Smith,
to the popular vote of four years
ago to Coolidge and Davis, and II
we add thereto the 167 900 for Smith
and 259.OOO for Hoover, we can cal
culate that the Hoover plurality IN
November should approximate inc
Coolidge plurality of four years ago,
which amounted to over 7,OOO,OOO
votes in excess of Davis.
"Tn some of the big disputed states
we will find interesting comparl-
sons along the same line. Massachu-
setts shows during the last three
weeks report percentage trend OF
Democrats to Hoover of 17.2 per
cent, us per cent, and 17.S per
cent progressively. The trend OF
Republicans of four years ago 10
Smith has stayed almost stationery
at % 26 per cent. This shows that the
shifting of vote in Massachusetts
slightly favors Smith, but when we
aDDly these percentage shifts to the
nopular vote for Coolidge and Davis
in Massachusetts four years ago
when Coolidge rolled up over 7OO,-
OOO votes against the Democratic
vote of about 2S0,000, we can reaully
see that this change in sentiment IS
only such as somewhat to reduce the
Massachusetts plurality, but is to-
tallv incapable of switching Massa-
cbusetts into the Smith column. 1t
would appear that the concern over
Massachusetts going to Smith has
been due to the fact that the shl1t-
ing to Smith of former Republican
voters has been little larger than
the reverse shift to Hoover, and mas
created a public impression Ill some
quarters that Massachusetts, was go
ing strongly for Smith. The Digest
poll does not indicate any shift in
sentiment in proportions to turn
Massachusetts Democratic in this
election.
"A similar analysis for New York
State shows almost identically the
same condition. The former Republ1-
can shift to Smith is about per
cent greater than the former Demo-
cratic shift to Hoover, but when the
actual percentages are applied to
the Coolidge and Davis votes of four
years ago, it leaves New York State
as a whole safely in the Hoover
column for next November by pIur-
ality that may amount to from TWO
to three hundred thousand.
MANY of the Southern States
show remarkable swings to Hoover
that are not only being sustained IN
each subsequent vote Of the Digest
poll but are showing gradual in
creases in the percentage shit IN
favor of Hoover, just the same as the /
national shift analysed above.
"The interesting State of Virginia /
has shown a progressive increase IN
this shift of sentiment until it reach
ed the high point this week OF 400
ner cent of all Democrats of four
wears ago now proposing to vote for
Hoover. as against 16.5 per cent OF
all Republicans of four years ago
now proposing to vote for smith,
This change of sentiment applied to
Virginia's vote of four years ago,
1879 900 for Davis and $4,000 for Coo
lidge. would give a new vote Oh Sl,-
600 for Smith and 125,OOO for Hoo
yer, to which would be added the
new voters, whose sentiment is run
ming so per cent stronger to Hoover
than to Smith. It would appear al
most too much to expect Virginia to
20 for Hoover, yet the analysis OF
these returns indicates that Hoover +
will win in Virginia by a substantial
1t must remain for the
election to prove the final sentiment,
but there is reasonable justification ]
for the claim that many of the States
Of the Solid South are going to cast !
their majority vote this year for t
Hoover.
"I might mention one additional {
point in the Digest poll as CLEANED !
rom a study of these percentage
shifts from the sentiment of four
years ago and then observing the
rend in these percentage shifts dur
ng the last three weeks ballot. rms
point is that the only states IN Whlch
he last two weeks trend has favor ~
ID Smith are the states of Iowa, Min =
,esota. North Dakota, South Dakota, u
Utah and Wyoming. These states III q.
he big northwest agricultural dis :,
riot seem to have been Influenced "
owards Smith during the past few h
Jeeks by his agricultural doctrines. .,
Towever. in practically all of these n
tates. the percentage drift is not o.
ct sufficient to pull them out of the ~
column. nj
"After thoroughly analyzing this
-eek's Digest poll, am quite con- "a
inced that those favoring Hoover
eed have no large concern as to the p,
ltimate outcome Of the interesting bt
ational campaign now under way, r
ut the efforts to put across their
Ivorite candidate should be pur- IN
led persistently to the end" he