The Bismarck tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, N.D.) 1916-current, 1928-02-23
Beef Cattle Outlook

oDsy - AIVm - " ~ pST cent small
or thin In 1927. The number Of
cattle on farms and ranges Janu-
sry /, 1928, Is the smal;es. since
1912. With teef prices relatively
nigh compared with other meats,
there Is expected to be Z somewhat
smaller demand. Prices Of slaugh.
ter cattle probably will average
higher than in 1927 according to
the annual livestock outlook report
prepared by the United States bu-
reau Of agricultural economies and
reissued by the office Of Paul C.
Newman, agricultural statistici9n.
Most areas and states showed de-
creases in cattle numbers during
1927. In Texas and the southwest
cattle and calf marketinRs in 1927
were in excess Of those in 1925. The
number Of cattle on feed January /,
1923, decreased 6 to 1e per cent as
com jared with 1927. Weights Of
cattle on feed are the lightest for
many years.
Cattle production cycles extend
over periods Of from Ii to 10 years.
Previous periods Of low production
occurred in 1898 and 1912. The in.
dustry at present is in . condition
similar to that in 1913, when the
trend Of production turned upward.
This trend is likely to continue for
several years to come. The present
relatively small numbers Of cattle
in the country combined with the
high prices Of the past months will
likely furnish the incentive for cat.
tlemen to restock. As = result, the
decrease in numbers Of cattle mar.
keted will continue, and may b 70.
duced to from 6 to 10 per cent OF
last year. With . plentiful supply
of corn, and with high cattle prices
the tendency will be to hold cattle
on feed longer than usual.
Supplies Of finished cattle in the
United Safes in 1923 will probably
be slightly greater than one year
ago. Supplies Of stocker and feed.
er cattle this fall are likely to be
even smaller than in the fall OF
1927. Canada disposes Of her sur
plus production in the United
States, but since imports during
1927 represented only 2 per cent Of
total slaughterings in the United
States, American beef and cattle
markets are not likely to be seri.
ously affected from this source.
Quantity Smaller
Briefly, it seems that with small.
er numbers Of cattle coming to mar
ket, with lighter average weights
per head, and with no serious COM
petition from foreign sources, &C.
cording to present prospects, the
quantity Of beef available for dom.
este consumption in 1928 will be
definitely smaller than in 1927.
The demand for beef in 1928 may
be somewhat lessened on account 81
relatively high prices compared
with pork and mutton. However
during the latter half Of 1927 with
business declining, beef prices con.
tinued to advance. If. as now seems
possible, business conditions improve
in 1928, there may be little or nc
decrease in the demand for beef.
Even though the demand for beef
in 1923 falls below that Of 1927,
such reduction is not expected ia
offset the apparent decrease in
market supplies. Average cattle
prices during 1928, therefore, are
expected to be considerably higher
than in 1927.
Il business conditions during the
last half Of 1925 show improvement
over the latter half Of 1927 and hog
supplies continue to decrease, cattle
will be in an unusually strong posi-
tion.s Any increase in cattle num-
bers will not materially increase
market supplies until late IN 1890
or 1881, so that cattle prices should
remain on q relatively high level
for the next three or four years.
Hog Outlook
The hog industry is passing
through the low period Of . HOG
price cycle as . result Of expansion
in production stimulated by high
prices and the favorable corn hog
ratio prevailing in 1926 ard 1926
With an increase in numbers Of
swine Of from 6 to s per cent ir
1927 Is compared with 1926, no re.
duction in seasonal hog supplies fol-
slaughter il indicated until next
fall or winter. Domestic demand
for pork may improve. but export
demand is likely to be smaller II
1928 than in 1927 because Of in
creases in foreign production II
1927. No changes in hog prices. ex
cept the usual seasonal fluctuations
are likely to occur until next fall
or winter, when market supplies ar
likely to be affected by reduced pro
duction.
No very sharp advances In hoa
prices are likely to occur before tn,
summer Of 1929, when reduced pro
duction indicated by the Dscembel
survey will result in . cu.iailmen
of market supplies. At tde sam,
time reduced supplies in Europ
may increase foreign demand TO
American pork products.
Dairy Outlook
The dairy industry in the Unite,
States is in fully - strong posi-
ton at present. as one year age
There have been no material IN
dications Of expansion in the in
dustry. compared with Z year ago
There has been no increase in mum
Der Of cows MIXED. no significan
increase in heifer calves being
raised, and no change in the dis
posal Of old cows. The increase Il
numbers Of heifer calves, and, year
ling heifers January LIST. 1928, j,
only sufficient to result in IN in
crease Of 20 2 per cent in mum
Der Of milk cows by 1880. Wit
beef cattle in demand, and best pro
ducing sections more prosperou
than for several years, the increas
in Carrying in these sections will B
slower than usual, and with mil
cows showing unexpected value be
cause Of high beef prices there 1
no reason to expect any increase Il
dairy herds BY holding old cow
longer than usual. Because Of fav
orable beef prices which are likel'