The Redwood gazette. [volume] (Redwood Falls, Minn.) 1873-1940, 1928-02-29
The Hog Market Outlook As
Seen By Economics Professor

lower tIldIl MdICl anu III diI IL year .
the following December price was
lower than the March price. The
course that hog prices take from
March to April, therefore, may signi-
fly something as to whether they have
yet reached a point where they can
again begin an upward trend.
Higher April prices only three
times and lower April prices Is times
in Is years, when the general trend
of hog prices has been downward,
point to April as a seasonal turning
point in the market. Higher April
prices 10 times and lower April
prices only eight times in 81 years,
when the general trend of hog prices
was upward, point to the same con-
clusion. April marks about the end
of the marketing of the heavier win
ter fed hogs and the beginning of the
spring marketing of the fall pig
crop. April receipts are most fire.
quently the low point in hog receipts
for the first six months of the calen-
dar year. In 26 years, April receipts
at four principal markets were the
low point for the first six months of
the year II times or all but nine
years. The low point in the first six
months receipts came in March four
times, in May once and in June four
times.
"The time of heaviest pork exports
is most commonly from January to
March inclusive. Exports usually
show a decided decline in April or
the two following months. Further
more, the fall pig crop which begins
to come to market in April is in total
small than the spring pig crop which
moves to market mostly from Octo-
Der to March inclusive.
Exports of pork and pork products
are distinctly under what they were a
year ago. Production of hogs in some
of the European countries partly an
swers the question why exports have
fallen off. For instance, IA German
markets received about $4,000 hogs
on December IA, 1927. On Decem-
Der Is, 1926, year before, these
markets received only about $4,000
hogs. Not only have producers In
the United States begun to increase
the production of hogs in the last
few years but foreign producers al
so have been building up supplies.
Foreign demand showed some i'm
provement in midsummer over the
poor spring showing but has again
declined.
Domestic demand for pork has
been handicapped by decline in re-
tail prices of pork only about one
half as great as the decline in whole
sale prices. 1t is wholesale prices,
however, which have declined the
most, that affect the price of hogs to
the producer. Prices in general de-
clined between about August, 1925,
to July or August, 1927, the hog
prices continued up to June, 1926.
Declining price levels and increasing
hog prices were bound eventually to
cut in on demand.
"Since August, 1927, the general
price level has worked little high
err. This, if it continues, will begin
to help the demand for pork products.
1t is also likely that some adjustment
between retail and wholesale pork
prices will have to be made during
the newt year. There is little to in
dictate any improvement in demand
until these readjustments take place.
1.-The present outlook suggests i'm
provement in the early spring market,
March to April, but rather marked
declines after April especially if corn
prices advance to any extent. Any
sustained improvement in the hog
situation promises to come after the
middle of the year and depends large
ly upon the size of the spring pig
crop and breeding for the fall crop
and upon a readjustment between re-
tail and wholesale pork prices. Pres
ent cattle prices should be minor inn
proving factor because they will at
tract some productive effort away
from hogs"