The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1928-11-02
DIGEST POLL
Gives HOOVER
z TO | Win
Final Tally Awards G. 0. P.
Nominee 1850, ,584 Votes;
Al, 987, ,447.
WARN OF SWITCH
Certain Factors Are Caution
to Republicans on Over
Confidence.
WARN OF SWITCH
BY ROSCOE b. FLEMING
Times staff Correspondent


Times staff Correspondent
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2-The
Literary Digest today announces
the final result of its straw vote,
largest and most sweeping of the
prediction polls.
Out of a total of 2,767,000 persons
who responded to the magazines
solicitation of 100000 persons, the
vote is 1,750,584 for Herbert Hoo
yer and 987,447 for Alfred E,
Smith.
Should this result accurately fore
cast that of the election, Hoover
would win by a vote of nearly 2
to l, carrying all except six states
and breaking into the solid south.
There are several facts about the
poll, however, which have led Re-
publican leaders to guard against
confidence, and some Demo-
cratci leaders to claim that it ac-
tually forecasts Smiths election.
The Digest editors themselves
warn against "laSt minute switch"
of voters, pointing out that the
last ballots in the poll were tabu-
lated two weeks before election.
Counter Drift of Voters
Accepting the poll at its face
value calculating the drifts"
which it reveals and assuming the
total vote at approximately 36,00O,-
0000 out of the country's total reg
istration of 100000, a result might
be predicted for Nov. 6 of ap-
proximately 21,500,000 popular bal
lots for Herbert Hoover and 49,
100000 or slightly more for Cover
nor Smith.
The method of calculating is as
follows:
A total of 100000 voters indi-
cate to the Digest that they voted
for Coolidge in 1924. This is almost
exactly tenth of Coolidge's to-
tai vote of 15,725, 900. This year,
however, 100000 of the Coolidge
supporters have voted for Smith in
the Digest poll.
The 1924 Republican vote, there
fore, may be tentatively divided on
the basis of 100000 for Hoover
and $500 for Smith.
But there likewise is a counter
drift of about 81 per cent among
the almost exactly 100000 Demo-
Gratis voting in the poll. Applying
this drift to the 8,386,000 voters for
Davis in 1924, Smith would get s.
100000 of them and Hoover 3,000,-
600 votes.
Farmer Labor for Smith
The 100000 voters in the poll who
have told the Digest they did not
vote in 1924 are divided approx
mately five to Hoover and three
to Smith.
On a basis of 100000 such votes
for 1928-modest in comparison
with the increased registration
this would give Hoover 5,500,000 to
100000 for Smith.
Lastly, the poll indicates that the
Socialist and Farmer vote OF
1924 is for Smith almost two to
one, an indication which is backed
up by poll taken among it's read
ers by The Nation, liberal weekly
which was for La Toilette in 1924
and is for Smith now.
Applying this ratio to the 4,800,-
600 La Toilette voters of 1924 would
give Smith 100000 of them and
Hoover 100000.
There are a number of factors ir
the Digest poll, however, which in
dicate that the popular vote may
be closer than this.
The poll of 1924 was inaccurate
so far as nationwide results we're
concerned, and gave the Republican
party larger majority than it ac-
tually achieved.
GIaring Discrepancies
The Digest's 1924 prediction was
on the basis of 1875 votes for Cool
idge to votes for Davis and 5
for La Toilette. The actual vote
was in the proportion of IS votes
for Coolidge, for Davis and 5
for La Toilette, or less than two
to one in favor of Coolidge, where
as the Digest was nearly three to
one for him. Combining both mi
nority votes, the actual result was
fifteen for Coolidge to thirteen for
Davis and La Toilette, against a
Digest prediction of 1875 to 10.
This discrepancy was especially
glaring in certain states. In New
York the Digest poll indicated a
vote of sixteen for Coolidge to 35
for Davis. The actual vote was on
the basis of Is to 9.5, or less than
two to one against the prediction of
nearly five to one.
In Illinois, the prediction was
for Coolidge victory on the basis
of five to one over Davis. The
actual vote was about 21a to 1.
When the Coolidge total is COM
pared with the total for Davis and
La Toilette, the error is not SO
large, but it favored Coolidge.
There are many states in which the
same thing occurred.