Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-10-29

Smith headquarters at New York,
this observer has reason to belleVe,
claims Democratic victory on Novem-
Der 6 by an electoral college total of
roundly 282 votes-16 more than a ma
jority. Apparently this is the minimum
of anticipated Smith strength. 1t seems
to be computed by giving the Demo-
cratic nominee the following States:
Alabama, IL: Arkansas, 8; Connecticut,
Z: Florida, 6; Georgia, IA: Kentucky,
10; Louisiana. 10; Maryland, 8; Massa-
chusetts, 10; Minnesota, IL; Mississippi,
10; Missouri, Is; Nebraska. 8; New
Jersey. IA; New Mexico, g. New York,
As; Rhode Island, S; South Carolina, g;
Tennessee, IL; Texas, 20; Utah. 4: Wiz
ginia, IL; Wisconsin, 10. Total, 2S2.
X X X X
These rosy calculations are confessed
ly made by the Raskobian statisticians
under the spell of Gov. Smiths recent
roaring receptions South, West and
East in the order named The Demo-
cratic contention Is that the candidate
himself personally stemmed the Re-
publican tide in doubtful communities
like Virginia, North Carolina, Tennes-
see and Missouri. Gov. Smiths thrust
into New England is depleted as having
"cinched" Massachusetts for his cause,
removed Rhode Island from the doubt
full list and even brought. Connecticut
into the strong probability" class. Sen-
ator Norris support Is held to be worth
at least 80 Western electoral votes, in
Guiding those of Nebraska. The
nominees eleventh-hour personal APP
peal in Maryland, New Jersey and New
York during the closing days of the
{r1a {c 81 4, ut
managers to turn the scales In his di-
rection in those States. New Jersey is
the blacklist spot in Democratic con-
temptations. Except for the official
scandals lately hung on Mayor Frank
Hague of Jersey City, an Al Smith
buddy" and a national committee vice
chairman, the Mosquito State would
hardly have ranked as doubtful. Now,
in the words of a shrewd Jersey politi-
cal observer. 1T will take a tidal wave
to carry the State for Smith
Belief that 1923 is not presidential
campaign-it is a social and political
revolution up Democratic
hopes of landing Smith by a slender,
but sufficient, ELECTORAL vote. Declar-
ing that the above description of the
cratic leaders explain that amid such
conditions trends" like straw-votes are
meaningless. They make much of the
point, for example. that only some
5000, 900 Of the Literary Digest 19,000,-
900 voters" actually sent in ballots.
The Democratic diagnosis of this vast
abStention is twofold: Cd That
millions of citizens have not made up
their minds even yet as between Hoover
and Smith. and 90 that it is on
the laps of the great, silent, indie
pendent vote that the result of the
election rests. Even conservative
Democrats warn the country to be
prepared for surprises In rock ribbed
Republican regions like Pennsylvania.
If wet Philadelphia and wet Pittsburgh
respond to Smiths prohibition argu-
ment as Philadelphia rose to 1t the
other night, a political miracle may be
wrought in Pennsylvania. The Key
stone rural counties are overwhelm-
ingly Democratic. Billy" Wilson,
former Secretary of Labor, carried SIS
out OF the 81 counties of the State for
Senator against Boss" Ware in 1925.
Herbert Hoover's amended home
going itinerary. beginning with de-
parture from Washington on Thursday
and reaching Palo Alto on the eve Of
election, has definite political earmarks.
| Originally the trip to California was
planned to be more or less of bee-
line expedition. Now it's going to be
made by slow stages and will detour
into Kentucky. Missouri Kansas. Colo
RADIO and Utah. In addition to the one
midjourney set speech at st. Louis,
Hoover is now to hold forth at Pueblo,
Dr. Works home town. and less formal
J ly at half dozen other stops arranged
for ovation" purposes. Prudence