The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1928-10-15
KEEPING UP
With
THE NE WIS
BY LUDWELL DENNY

worry.
The truth boiled down seems to
be that nothing short of a landslide
can elect Smith, and that landslide
is not discernible to neutral OBJ
servers and is not forecast by straw
votes.
Only the completely unexpected
can put Al in the White House now.
Smith is making a splendid cam
paign. But it is not so effective as
his enemies feared or his friends
hoped. He is making progress, but
the distance he must cover is so
great it dwarfs his NOV nent.
Hence one already begins to hear
alibis and might-have- beens.
Here are some of the things which
Smith must do to win, which he has
failed to do so far:
/. To cause a bolt in normally Re-
publican states on the ground Of al
legged Republican corruption. This
will be recalled as a major then,
when the campaign started Turn
the rescalls out" was the motif of
Democratic oratory and platform at
the Houston convention. But this
issue has been allowed by Smith to
sink into relative unimportance. AS
a campaign realist he discovered on
his first western tour that this line
did not seem to be winning votes
for him.
The reasons do not matter much
now that AL is no longer depending
on this attack to cripple his opponent.
Among the reasons, however, is the
surprising but proved indifference
Of the average voter to Harding adj
ministration scandals, as shown by
the large Coolidge plurality in 1924.
and the much greater Democratic
dthculty of reviving and increasing
IN 1928 a moral indignation" which
hardly existed in 1924. A second
reason is the inability of Democrats
to charge Hoover with any personal
blame other than silence"
2. Smith must convince the coun-
try that he is trustworthy despite
his Tammany connections. He has
succeeded after many years in New
York state, where he is known and
where his record speaks for him.
But current New York city munich
pal graft scandals, the continuous
"Tammany menace" cry of hundreds
OF G. o. P. orators, and the
, deep-rooted ''prejudices Of other
parts of the country have COM
bined to prevent AL from presuad-
ing the voters that the Tiger has
changed his stripes.
E 3. Smith must make voters think
= OF issues instead of religion. How
= ever 1t may be deplored, practically
all political observers report relig-
ious prejudices-both Protestant
and Catholic-as one of the con-
tinuing basic factors of the cam
paign.
The net effect of Smiths attack
on bigotry, and Hoover's denial of
responsibility, seems to be that
Smith will get more Catholic votes
and Hoover will get more Protestant
votes. This will help Smith in
doubtful eastern states, such as
New York and Massachusetts, with
their large electoral votes. But it
will help Hoover in the doubtful
border and middle western states.
a. Smith must persuade the wet
east he will hasten modification of
prohibition, and convince the dry
west he will improve enforcement
pending modification which can
only come through congressional
action. Most reporters agree that
this issue is holding in the Hoove.-
column states such as Kentucky,
! Oklahoma, Nebrask and Illinois,
and helping Hoover in Minnesota
and the Dakotas, all of which states
Smith might otherwise carry. Con-
versely, his wetness has not yet as
sured Smith a sweep in the doubt
full eastern states. New York and
Massachusetts, still are doubtful, and
| New Jersey appears to have swung
to Hoover.
; 5. Smith must capture a majority
Of the farm vote. Normally heavily
Republican. No one thinks he has
done that yet.
LIE made a good Impression on
J. Il his first Western tour. But
Borah and other Republican spell
binders have turned the tide, at
least in part.
This partly is due to Smiths "in-
definiteness." After his Omaha
speech, farmers who were boiling
| the Republican ticket on the Nc
Nary Haugen equalization fee issue,
rallied for a moment to Smith in
the belief he had committed him
self to that fee. When they dis
covered he had not done so
definitely, they were in mood to be
won back by Hoover orators.
6. Smith must convince voters he
can bring more prosperity. and must
quiet fears Of business men that he
will not 'injure" them. Though he
apparently has convinced most per-
sons that he does not intend to en-
barrass big businss by tariff changes
or interference, che only is beating
the old Republican drum" which
the Republicans are beating louder.
Similarly, improved business con-
, ditions and decreased unemploy-
: ment during the last six months,
materially has cramped AIS Hard
times" warning.
That does not mean AL has given
up. He is still very much in the
fight to win. But 1t does mean that
several economic and psychological
breaks have been against him.
In addition, this is normally a Re-
publican country and Hoover has a
much better nationwide organiza-
: ton than Smith.