Evening star., 1928-10-22
WASHINGTON OBSERVATIONS
BY FREDERIC WILLIAM VILE.

New York State, which is invaded to-
day by Herbert Hoover. is the supreme
battle-ground of the campaign. 1t rep
resents a plain problem in political
arithmetic. On its solution the out
come of the presidential election large
ly depends. AS of yore, the contest re-
solves itself into Republican upstate
VS.. Democratic New York City. Tam
many Hall has just completed a can
vass of the metropolis based on its
record breaking registration OF 2,000, 600.
1t indicates Smith plurality OF about
6OO,0 900. In 1924 Smith beat Roosevelt
for governor in New York City by 3d.
600, the Democratic nominees high
water mark there. In 1926 Smith led
Mills for governor in the city by 484,000.
Tammany claims it is reasonable to ex-
pect, in light of 100000 registration
increase, that Smith will pile up against
Hoover 81 900 more votes than he re-
ceived against Roosevelt and 10000
more than against Mills. Such calcula-
tons presuppose that all Manhattanites
who voted for Smith in 1924 and 1928
will support him for President in 1928.
That is widely challenged assumption.
Smith has always had heavy Repub-
lican vote for governor.
* X X
If Smith captures New York City by
anything like 100000, Hoover will have
to come laundering down to the Bronx
with tremendous vote. Coolidge's up
State majority in 1924 was 732, 1922. Re-
publican leaders expect that total OH
November 6 to be cut by fully 100000,
due to wet defections to Smith in ur-
ban centers like Buffalo, Utica, Syra-
nYtco AJhanu and Thory ho
lieve Hoover's residue of 600 000-odd will
suffice to overcome Smiths big lead on
the sidewalks Of New York and give the
Republicans the State by at least Ave-
figure margin. No matter what sweet
nothingS are being whispered into
Hoovers ear on Fifth avenue, it is clear
from such reckonings that G. Q. P.
moguls like Hilles, Machold ct al. will
be lucky and delighted to carry New
York State by a round 50,000-or less.
Mr.. Hoover and his national managers
have for some time been talking turkey
to the New York organization on the
vital necessity Of getting out the up
State vote. New York City customarily
polls its registered vote nearly 100 per
cent. Upstate seldom brings more
than rs per cent to the polls. Experts
in both parties concede that If up
be easily offset by the largely augment
ed vote of preponderantly Democratic
New York City. Conversely, If up
State polls 80 per cent of its registered
electorate, it would appear to have
enough votes to overwhelm the metrop-
| oils. The city accounts for less than
40 per cent of the total State registra-
| tion. These are some of the cold facts
and figures which Hoover and the hard
boiled New York Republican politicians
| discussed In the confidential recesses OF
| the nominees Gotham hotel quarters
preceding tonight's jamboree in Madi-
son Square Garden.
Something has happened-possibly
zero-hour stage fright-to smoke the
Republican management out of It's de-
termination to ignore the anti-Hoovel
whispering campaign. Within 48 recent
hours occasion was taken to deal with
Q) the British citizenship yarn, ca
the fairy tale about Hoover's acquaint-
ance with a Mississippi negress, and
(3) the aspersions on the patriotism
of Quakers. Hoover himself has hither.
to resolutely refused to dignity his de.
tractors or their calumnies with notice
He took the view that scandal thrives
on discussion, and found refuge in the
knowledge that few aspirants to the
| presidential Office escape the mudsling-
ers. Apparently the nominee or his
advisers. or both, came to the conclu.
sion that silence has ceased to be either
Virtuous or polite.
Ben Buffers place In the Hall oi
Fame is associated with the mysterious
disappearance of some silver spoons or
. memorable occasion In his politica