Evening star., 1928-12-16
Continued From Third Page)

Some turn toward the secure and placiC
refuge of the House of Lords. Other:
indicate preference for some safe met
ropolitan constituency with great mid
die class Tory majority. This kind o.
spirit invites defeat The younger mem
bers of the party initiate the example
IF their olders and betterS and the fortu'
nate among them are already seeking
some ark of refuge outside the industria
areas of the North.
Very different was the spirit of Bonal
Law, who twice resigned a sale
seat in order to contest some great in
duStrial constituency so that he might
give a lead and inspiration to all the
Conservative candidates in the neighbor'
hood 1t was with this object that he
gave up his seat in Dulwich to fight in
MancheSter-and deserted the security
of Bootle for the perils CT contest In
Glasgow. Bonar Law led his party from
the front. Too many of existing minis
ters are obviously going to lead 1t from
behind. The result will be feeling OF
desolation and betrayal in the vital GEN.
ters of the midlands and the North.
Conservative Prospects.
1t will be seen from the general tone
of this article that the prospects OF
the Conservative party are far from
favorable. The main strength OF the
government consists in the fact that
both the Liberals and the Socialists
have so far failed utterly to make any
impression on the agricultural conStit-
uencies and in the personal and pollti-
cal disunion which afflictS both So
cialism and Liberalism. None the less,
it is absolutely clear that the ConServa-
tives will be badly shaken at the next
general election. But it is right to say
that the Socialists themselves do not
expect an independent majority in the
next House of Commons. They look to
be 270 strong; give to Liberalism 30
members, thus leaving the Tories with
315. out of total of 615.
It is the Socialist party which will
reap the main profit from the decline
in the popularity of Conservation.
Their walls, once so lowly, seem to be
rising as though under the hands of
unseen maSons. One must aScribe their
progress rather to the inevitable course
of events than to any great skill in
leadership Not only is Socialism fire.
uuently disunited, but Mr.. Ramsay Mac
Donald has fallen in with the Tory
precedent and deserted a perilous seat
for safe one Mr. Philip Snowden,
ex-Socialist chancellor of the excheQuer,
remains at once the most formidable
and the most attractive personality on
the Socialist benches.
I can well remember the first time
I heard him speak in the House of
Commons. I had only been in Eng
land for short period, and yet here
I was elected to be a member of Parlia-
ment. I suffered under terrible adj
vantage as compared with my col
leagues, for I had not the faintest
knowledge of most of the personalities
of British politics I set about remedy
ing this defect as quickly as I pos
sibly could and was Unsuitable in my
search for information.
was impressed by Snowden's speech.
and i Immediately went off to find
Bonar Law. / asked Bonar Law my
usual string of questions about Snow
den. Was he married? Was he fond
of the pleasures of the table-either by
way of eating or drinking? Was he
honest in his politics? Bonar Law as
sured me that on all these matters
Snowden was quite impeccable. He
added, He is sincere and honest, all
right. In fact, think the first thing
he would do if he ever came into power
is to hang us all up on the nearest
lamp posts" That was Bonar Laws
judgment on the Snowden of 18 years
ago, and I suspect it was correct at
the time. 1t is not true of the Snowden
of 1928.
Coming Figure in Socialist Politics.
Yet Mr.. Snowden would be benefited
greatly in the estimation of the ma
jority of his own followers if he still
retained that spirit on which Bonar Law
commented 18 years ago. But in the
period which has intervened Mr.. Snow
den has seen too much of life, of men
and of Office to retain the extremist
temper. He will never be Hanging
Johnny" now
A coming figure in Socialist politics
is Sir Oswald Mosley, the Socialist
baronet, originally a Tory member of
Parliament. His opponents stigmatize
him as an adventurer and declare that
as a consequence he has no future in
politics. I think they are premature
and ill-informed in this judgment They
do not know the working side of Mos
ley's life. Sir Oswald tours the country
as a commercial traveller beats his
district He addresses meetings all the
week and an extra meeting on Sunday
His oratorical powers and his person.
ality, both in themselves considerable,
are therefore familiar to his party in
half the constituencies of Great Britain.
But these speeches are never report
ed in the press which the average Tory
reads. In fact, they are not reported
in the newspapers in which I have
shareholdingS, but the speeches go on
all the same AS to the accusation
that Sir Oswald Mosley is unprincipled,
I do not take much notice of it. /
see that he is man of remarkable
abilities. do not perceive that he Is
any more OF an opportunist than a good
many other eminent politicians could
name who sit intrenched In apparent
responsibility on Conservative or Liber-
al front benches.
Sir o. Mosley Is the type of recruit
to the Socialist ranks which is certain
to bring quite undeserved yet formi-
dable acceSsionS of strength to that
party. namely, the young men in search
of careers and the other glittering
prizes of life.
Heretofore these brilliant soldiers of
fortune have confined their activities
to the old-time parties.
Discomfort Is Bred.
If the Socialists are going to shake
the Tory administration at the polls
where are they going to win their seats?
The answer is to be found in the great
industrial areas from Birmingham
northward. There poverty and unem-
ployment has made the population dis
contented and they are turning to the
Socialist party as the one most likely
to do something practical for them.
Looking over the English constituencies
is it safe to say that the Conservatives
must expect to suffer heavy losses in
the districts stretching from Birming-
ham to Manchester and Liverpool?
Birmingham and its surrounding
towns have been under the domina-
ton of the Chamberlain tradition for
40 years. That domination has now
worn itself out. The most significant
fact is that Mr. Neville Chamberlain
son of Joseph Chamberlain-the pres
ent minister for health. has been
obliged to shift himself out of pivot
al Birmingham seat for fear of a de-