Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-09-30
1877 VOTES PLACED
AS SURE FOR c. OPP.
Listings Expected to Change
as Campaign Progresses
in Next Five Weeks.
BY G. GOULD LINCOLN.

of the States, and the probable outcome
Of the election, now five weeks and TIVE
days in the future.
This preliminary check-up cannot bt
considered final. nor can 1t properly II
so complete as to give the election
finally to either Gov. Smith or Mr.
Hoover. In many of the States tht
situation is in the making. and with
five weeks campaigning still ahead. TIT
outcome must be considered doubtful
In those States.
Today more electoral votes may
properly be written down as sure" fol
the Republican candidate than for thu
Democratic candidate. But when they
have been written down there is founc
70 be lacking 70 votes to bring the Re.
publican total to 266, the number nee.
essary to elect.
1877 Sure Republican Votes.
Here is the way the table of electora
votes runs based on the information
now at hand:
Sure Republican, 1877; sure Demo.
cratic. 1902; leaning to the Republicans
40; leaning to the Democrats. So
doubtful. ITO. Total 531.
The IA States put down as Sursl;
Republican and the electoral votes they
cast follow: California, 49, Idaho, 4:
Illinois. 90: Indiana. Is: Iowa. 10;
Kansas. 10; Maine. s; Michigan. IS;
Ohio, "a; Oregon. s.; Pennsylvania So;
Utah, 4; Vermont. 4; Washington, Z
Total, 1877.
The nine States put down as surely
Democratic and their electoral votes
follow Alabama. IL; Arkansas, 8; Flor
ida, s; Georgia. IA; Louisiana. 10; Mis-
sissippi. 10; South Carolina, 9; Texas
20; Virginia, H.
Those States leaning to the Repub-
leans and their electoral votes are:
Colorado, 6; Connecticut. Z: Kentucky
ID; Nebraska. 8; New Hampshire, 4:
West Virginia. s, and Wyoming, 8.
The States leaning to the Democrats
are: Missouri. 18; New Mexico, 3; New
York, IS; North Carolina. IL, and
Rhode Island, S.
The Is States listed as doubtful. -
their votes in the electoral college are:
Arizona, 3; Delaware, 8; Maryland, 8;
Massachusetts, 1S; Minnesota, IL; Mon
tana. 4; Nevada. 8: New Jersey. IA:
North Dakota, S; Oklahoma, 10: South
Dakota, 5; Tennessee, IL, and WiscoX-
sin, Is, total Of 10 votes.
Table viii Change.
AS the trend of sentiment for one
candidate or the other grows more
pronounced in the States, changes will
be made from one column to another.
until on the Sunday before election
the table should clearly indicate. if the
forecast be right, the result at the polls
on November 6.
The table today gives the Republic
cans the advantage. But it leaves a con-
siderable leeway in which the Denlo-
cratic candidate might yet outstrip his
Republican opponent.
II the electoral votes of the sure
Republican States are added to the
electoral votes of those put down as
leaning to the Republicans, the total
is 236, still 80 electoral votes short of
the necessary 266. The sum of the
. sure" Democratic votes and the votes
OF the States leaning to the Demo-
Gratis today is 1876. If both the Repub-
. licans and the Democrats win in the
States set down as sure and leaning t.
their respective parties, they must still
go into the doubtful column End PICK
up votes in order to elect their candi-
dates. From that column the Repub-
licans would have to take 80 votes, and
the Democrats 81.
Democrats Work in South.
The nine States put down as sure
for Smith today are all in the So-called
''solid South" There have been many
reports that a political revolution was
going on in some of these States and
that If the election were held today
these States would in some instances GO
Republican because of the animosity
to Gov. Smith. But the chances are
that as the campaign progresses the
Democratic strength will increase, due
to the fact that the leaders of the party
in those States are at work for the
national ticket and to the fact that the
entire election machinery is in the
hands Of the Democrats. North Caro-
,lina has been placed in the column as
cleaning to the Democrats. differentia
.ting it from the other solid South
Democratic States because of the fact
that Senator Simmons. for more than
. quarter of a century the political
leader of that State, is fighting the
election of Smith. OF the so-called
border States, two, Kentucky and West
Virginia. have been placed in the lean
ing to the Republicans column, and
Maryland Oklahoma and Tennessee
have been assigned to the doubtful
column.
An analysis of the list shows that the
Republican strength lies particularly in
that great belt of States running west
ward from Pennsylvania. and including
Ohio. Indiana Illinois and Michigan
and in the States of the Pacific Coast
The big fighting ground appears to be
located in the States of the North and
East, the so-called border States, anc
several States of the West, including
Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota and the
Dakotas.
If Gov. Smith is given the nine State.
listed as sure" Democratic, and the
five listed as leading Democratic, he
must still pick up 81 electoral vote:
elsewhere. He must find them in the
13 States listed as doubtful and in the
Republicans, and the combined cleo
toral votes of these two lists number.
159. He must win for example, Massa.
Chusetts, 10; New Jersey, IA: Oklahoma
10: Tennessee. IL; Wisconsin, 10; Ken.
lucky, 10. and Maryland 8. and gel
S5 votes, or seven more than enough
to elect him. He might substitute
Arizona, Delaware, Nevada. North De.
kota and South Dakota, with a tota
ofn1S votes for Massachusetts,. or hi
might win Nebraska in place Of Mary.
land. Republicans will insist that such
is an impossible task for the New Yorl
Governor, while Democrats probably will
see strong hopes of his carrying nearly
all Of these States.
1iOOver's Task Easier.
Give Mr.. Hoover the 1877 electora
votes of the sure" Republican State.
and add to them the 40 votes of The
States listed as leaning Republican anc
IL appears that the Republican candi.
date has an easier task, certainly a les
number of votes to be gathered in. thar
has Gov. Smith under the condition
already indicated. Mr.. Hoover will nee
only 80 additional votes to bring hi
total up to 266, the number required
for an election. These he must &c
from the doubtful column or from tn
leaning Democratic" column. If MI
Hoover took New York State. with il