New Britain herald. [microfilm reel] (New Britain, Conn.) 1890-1976, 1928-11-03

dry and Smith ~ wet: (S) the
women have never voted tor presi-
dent ~ they will thiS time: 90 the
question of Smiths domination by
Tammany: 60 has Hoover's resi-
dence and past political utilization
or lack Of it, entitled him to cleo
ton to the presidency by the repub-
licans.
The fact that Smith IL a Roman
Catholic is considered by many as
being an unsurmountable obstacle
to his election In . country where
the ProtestAnts outnumber the
Catholics ten to one. But our presi-
dents are elected by the electoral
college vote and not by popular
vote, and the states where Smiths
religion will be used most against
him are in the south where the
democratic vote 10 too overwhelming
to be upset by this issue.
In most of the states where the
sectarian factor will aid Hoover. he
needs no aid, like in Ohio, Indiana,
Iowa and the opposition to Smith
there will not hurt him In the final
outcome because those states would
be in the republican column anyway.
The sectarian issue will be most
important in the states generally
regarded as always doubtful, like
New York. and there Smith will
probably get more aid from tho
Catholics than can be Offset by the
anti-Catholics. He will probably
lose Oklahoma and Kentucky be-
cause Of his religion. Those two
states together have IS electoral
votes. but il Smith sains Massachu-
sets with Is and Connecticut with I
the religious opposition will be of.
set.
The most bitter opposition tt
Smith on tho ground Of religion /.
in North Carolina and Virginia. but
it is certain that factor will moi
throw either state to Hoover.
The lineup over tho prohibition
issue is much the same. Smith,
wetness will hurt him In states thai
az a rule will remain in the demo.
cratic column anyway ana Hoover.
dryness will have no revolutionar,
effect In states like Ohio, Indiana
Michigan and Iowa.
Except for Oklahoma. Governor
Smith will carry the solid south,
and there Is q chance he may gel
that alsos
OF the three border states. Ten.
nessee. Kentucky ana Missouri
Smith will carry Tennessee easily
will probably get Missouri. but will
most likely lose Kentucky
Smith has a reasonable chance o.
carrying Illinois, Delaware and Con
necticut.
Without New York with its blocl
OF Is votes Smith cannot win. bu
it seems possible for Hoover to viii
without New York-and that I
where Hoover appears to have tn
advantage over Smith.
Hoover 10 certain to carry New
Jersey this year. especially since tn
graft and corruption investigation
in Hudson County 10 going to pre-
vent any stealing OF the election
in Hudson County by Mayor Franz
Hague's well-trained political ma
chine.
Old lines In Pennsylvania are 20
ing to be badly smashed this year
with thousands Of Catholics, vets
miners and laborinE people swir1
ing to Smith, who formerly vote,
the republican ticket, and othe
thousands OF anti-Catholics an,
drys to Hoover. who have befor,
lined UP with the democrats. Blu
this unusual switching will still
leave Pennsylvania as usual In tn
republican column with 81 votes.
After months Of intensive study o
the political situation In every state
with special attention to tmportan
old and new factors In the situation
and with particular regard to tn
trend Of the vote In the last weel
compared with this time in 1872,
and 1920. am strongly inclined Il
line the states votes up as set fortl
in the accompanying tabulation.
This table gives Hoover 1855 voter
and Smith 1855 certainly. with tn
~ classed rs probably republican
Herbert Hoover would have ~.
votes and giving Smith the SO pu
down as probably democratic
Smiths total would be 253. Their
are 531 votes In the electoral col
lege. making 1t necessary for TIL
winner to get more than 266 votes t,
win. Either would win by taking al
the states classed as doubtful to
gether with those granted the can
didate and put down as probably 60
ing to him, but neither could vii
with much less.
Altogether, 1t seem to me the cleo
ton result ID going to be mucl