Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-08-01
Politics at Large
~ G.. Could Lincoln.

with the presidential election three
months In the future. the campaign has
not yet developed enough to make &C
curate predictions OF the results In Mo-
yernber. Yet claims OF the supporters
of both Smith and Hoover that they will
carry this State or that are daily oc-
currences For example, the Democrats
lay claim To New York, New Jersey.
Massachusetts, Connecticut and the Re-
publicans are talking OF breaking into
the solid South and wrestling away North
Carolina, Virginia. Florida and other
States wh~re they believe a strong anti
Smith and Anti-wfs and anti-Tammany
sentiment exists Any or all OF these
events which would In reality mark po-
lltical upheavals. may take place. But
there is little yet upon which TO build
real hopes Of such victories.
Usually the politicians and political
observers can look to the elections OF the
past to guide them in their predictions
for the future. But this year many are
insisting that party lines will be torn
asunder due 10 the wet and dry issue,
the religious issue, the Tammany issue,
the farm issue and what not. Still de-
spite these issues, Old Man Arithmetic
should probably be considered when 1t
comes to claiming such remarkable re-
versals OF voting form. Take Massachu-
sets, for example. President Coolidge
carried his home State by more than
400.C o over his Democratic opponent.
John W. Davis. With La Follette's vote
added to the Democratic vote. Coolidge
still had A lead of some $780, 900 votes.
"A fAttAr hnasAuaF tn Ink IN
the elections of 1926, when the Bay
State elected governor. Senator and
members OF the House OF Represent
atives The favorite-son element which
entered into the Coolidge victory did
not maintain two years ago. All the
candidates were Massachusetts men. In
the 1925 gubernatoria1 election Fuller
the Republican. defeated CASTOR. the
Democratic candidate. by 1913 600 votes.
Yet Fuller was on the dry end OF The
fight and CASTOR stood on a wringins
wet platform.
In the same election the Republica n
candidates for the House had pll-
raiity over their Democratic opponents
of approximately 10000. This estimate
does not take into account two con-
gressional districts In which a Repuhli-
can was unoppoSed and Democrat was
similarly unopposed, and one district
in which only a Democrat ran is ac-
corded $4,000 plurality. 1t would APP
pear to be fair 10 say that the State
was Republican by something like $780,
900 votes But along comes Senator
David l. Walsh Democrat, and polish
es off William M. Butler. chairman OF
the Republican national committee, and
a close friend of President Coolidge, by
some SIS. 900 votes 1t Is true that walsh
had great personal following which
Butler did not have that he probably
had practically ell of the big Catholic
vote OF the State, and that he was really
elected by large body OF Independent
and Republican votes. The question
his year is whether Walsh can deliver
these independent and Republican votes
10 Gov. Smith in his race against Mr.
Hoover. It Is generally believed that
Smith will have the Catholic vote in
Massachusetts, which has gone to walsh
in the past On the other hand, Ny.
Hoover Is really popular among the
voterS OF Massachusetts. as indicated
BY the big vote cast for him in the
primaries against all other Corners. II
docs appear that under all the circurn-
stances Smith will have real Job on
his hands CARRYING Massachusetts,.
The contest in New York looks to-
day ike a horse race, with Hoover run
ming strongly upstate and Smith get
ting a great lead in New York City. In
1870, when the Harding landslide swept
the country, Smith was beaten by MIL
Ter by some $4,000 votes, although Smith
ran more than million votes ahead
of his ticket Two years later Smith
defeated Miller overwhelmingly and has
repeated his victories over Republican
candidates every two years since that
time 1t Is true that In 1924, presi-
dental year, he only beat Theodore
Roosevelt, jr. by 100000 votes. which
Is no great defeat in New York State
Hoover for President against Smith for
President might easily upset that lead
The only Republican to be elected in
the Statewide contests two years ago
was Attorney General Ottinger. whom
the Republicans are thinking seriously
OF nominating for governor this year,
There Is great Jewish population II,
New York City. There are some sus-
picious people who are whispering to.
day that IL Ottinger is the Republican
nominee for governor. Tammany may
make a deal" with Jewish leaders in
the State whereby the governorShlD
shall go to Ottinger in return for jew
ish support of AL Smith for President
There is absolutely nothing to the Sug-
gestion. it Is said that Ottinger would
enter into such a deal or countenance
It, But ammany is not infrequently
under suspicion.
Take look at the so-called Repub-
lican chances in Virginia and North
Carolina. In North Carolina there IS
stronger Republican organization
than In any Of the other States OF the
solid South But there has always
been a sufficiently great Democratic
presidential electors since the days III
the reconstruction. In 1924 Davis ran
ahead of Coolidge by more than 80000
votes, and In 1870 Cox led Harding
by $4,000 votes. But In the Tar Heel
state it is possible. they say. to greatly
increase the Democratic vote II the Re-
uuhlicans really threaten a victory.
Democratic victories there are taken
much as a matter OF course and thou-
sands OF Democrats do not trouble &c
go to the polls as a rule in general
elections. The same Is true to an even
more marked extent In Virginia
Neither North Carolina nor Virginia
has a single Republican Representative
In the HOUSE. The Democratic political
leaders in both these States are ex-
pected TO put their shoulders to the
wheel for Smith, no matter how much
they may dislike the task. MANY OF
them really believe that Smith has 4
chance to carry the country and will
work for him willingly. The Repub-
MtCurttNflnA dry
and anti-Catholic voters, largely, II Is
said. upon the Democratic women.
They must Furthermore put mp as presi-
DENTAL electors white men and women
OF standing il these Democratic voters
are to be expected to cast their bal
lots for them, II looks today like az
eypn greater task for Hoover to carry
North Carolina and Virginia than for
Smith to carry Massachusetts, and Con-
nccticut, which are regarded as strong"
IL Republican in presidential years