Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1928-01-22
RY REX COLLIER.

CClENIIFIC long range weather
iorecssting. long the hope and
despair. alternately. of Govern
- mcnt nleteoroloeists. is being
brought further within the bound.
OF possibility as result of a deeper
concentration on the problem by Gov.
eminent and Smithsonian scientists.
With the recent election of DR.
Charles @. Abbot as secretary of the
smithsonian Institution the long range
forecast horizon doomed perceptibls
brighter.
Recognized as the worlds leading au-
thority on solar radiation DR. Abbot
has devoted his recent years to study
OF the effect of solar radiation on the
globes weather AS head of the Smith
sonian's astrophySical bureau. he has
sent into far-fluns and remote corners
OF the world expeditions for the observ-
ance of the suns behavior. with a view
to solving such mysteries as sun spots
solar radiation variations and other
Phenomena which he believes bring
their influences to bear on atmospheric
conditions the world over.
Weather to Be Studied.
Now that he is the executive head of
the great institution for learning.
founded by the Englishman Smithson
Tor the gathering and diffusion of
knowledge. Dr.. Abbot. it is understood.
VIII concentrate much of the efforts of
his scientific staff on the battling
weather problem
He has learned enough from his own
researches 10 satisfy himself that long
range predictions as to future changes
IN the weather are not beyond hope of
realization. He has found renar'1ah'e
evidences Of correlation between So
called weather cycles and al-Spol
cycles. He believes il not unreaSon-
able 70 theorize as TO the possible effect
OF variations in solar radiation on the
stratum of atmosphere over the earth
Contrary TO the general impression
that. seems 10 have gotten out, the
United States Weather Bureau is deep
~ interested in the whole subject of
!ong-range forecaSting on scientific
basis.
Bureau Sees Long Forecasts.
The contrary impression has gained
ground because of the bureaus fire.
ouent denunciation of what it terms as
"long-range weather guessing by self
constituted experts" Many of these
experts. with little or no scientific back
ground for their forecasts, sell their
services to farmers industrial publ
cations, &lnianacS and other individ-
uals or organizations interested in
weather or crop prospects.
The Weather Bureau. as a matter of
fact, has well defined hopes that some
Gay II viii be able to forecast general
meteorological conditions for weeks in
advance. instead of only day or so
ahead. as at present.
Prof. c. r. Marvin. chief of the bu-
reau, disclosed only last week that the
bureau has assigned one meteorologist
70 devote most of his time to research
On the question of long-range forecast
ing. This Official quietly has been en-
gagged in this important work for sew
e-al years, it was stated
He Is reviewing past and current lit
erature or the subject. and is prescott
ing special studies in the broad field of
bong-range forecasting possibilities.
New Developments Probed.
In addition. Prof. Marvin himself
and other members OF the Weather
Bureau staff have given special atten-
ton 10 this line Of inquiry Every
new development rs looked into care
1uIly and any suggestion OF scientific
merit is welcomed
Up 70 the present. however. the bu-
reau is convinced that no practicable
methods have been devised for ''scien-
tic prognos lacating" The bureau has
little faith III claims Of certain fore
casters that oceanic salinfty and heat
absorption are reliable barometers Of
future weather. and 1t characterizes as
mere guesses" all long-range forecasts
announced by such prophets"
Throughout the past several hun
cred years" Dr.. Marvin states, there
mas seldom been time when one or
more long-range weather forecasters
have not been seeking TO interest the