Evening star., 1928-11-04

in 1924, it would seem hardly credible
that the Republican candidate should
fail to be successful this year. Davis
polled 95O,7S6, Coolidge 1,S2O,05S. La
Toilette (Socialistl 26S,5l0, La Toilette
(Progressive) 206.395. Johns (Socialis-
tic-Labor) 9,928, Foster (Workers)
s,244. Adding all of the votes cast for
La Toilette and all other candidates to
that for Davis and Coolidge still would
have carried the State comfortably.
But hte cold figures do not take into
consideration so many entirely per-
sonal facts. There was very well de-
fined rumor in 1924 that Tammany
Hall and the Democrats generally in
New York City, where is the huge
strength Of that party in the State,
were decidedly sore" because their
candidate. AL Smith, had not received
the nomination at the disastrous, to
them. convention in their own city. The
Democratic national standard bearer,
therefore. it was rumored, was delib-
erately cut.
Upstate Vote Is Vital.
This year, of course, their popular
faVorite is their candidate, and New
York City can be looked to for huge
Smith vote. Now the question is, will
the Republicans be able to poll the
Ioi MANY AuSc up-0tdCc pAtoAuSACAdA
vote for their candidate? If they can.
the 45 electoral votes of New York will
go to Hoover. II they cannot poll the
normal Republican vote, but are still
able to draw many thousands of the
'Al Smith Republicans" in this presi-
dental year, Hoover still has an excel
lent chance OF carrying the State. If
the governors personal popularity is
able to overcome party scruples once
more to a considerable extent, Hoover
will lose the State.
About the only thing that can be said
without fear of contradiction for New
York State Is that the vote for preSi-
Dental electors is fairly sure to be
close. Beyond this nothing can be
said with any degree of certainty. But
it should be added that there is an un-
deniaole current, reflected in political
talk everywhere in the State and the
betting odds also. showing the trend of
the State as a whole is toward Hoover
This trend has carried over from last
week, when 1t was reflected decidedly
following Hoover's appearances and
speech at Madison Square Garden, New
at the same time the politically curious
trend toward Franklin d. Roosevelt,
Democratic candidate for governor,
over his Republican opponent, Attorney
General Albert Ottinger, seems to have
continued. Hoover and Roosevelt" Is
the pronouncement of the would-be
wiseacreS, although there are plenty in
the Republican ranks who insist that
the idea is entirely wrong, so far as
Ottinger Is concerned, and that their
candidate will receive a larger vote
than Hoover.
Senate Race Even.
The contest for the United States
senatorship still seems to be very much
Of toss-up between the Democratic
candidate for reelection, DR.. Royal S.
Copeland. and his Republican opponent,
Alanson B. Houghton, former United
States Ambassador to Great Britain.
DR.. Copeland is a proved vote-getter,
but Mr., Houghton's strength during the
campaign has been such as to hold the
betting odds to even money throughout.
AS election day drew near there has
been nothing TO change the indications
that the majority Of New York'S Repre-
sentatives In the next Congress will re-
main Democratic. 1t continues highly
ture two new seats. II they are sue
cessful in this the States representation
will be % Democrats and 20 Repub-
licanS.
The State Legislature is almost GER
tain to remain Republican in both
branches. A normal presidential year
in New York State ordinarily brings
out a greatly increased Republican
vote, and for this and other intrastate
reasons it seems highly probable that
the Republicans may show slight gains
in their legislative majority.
THOMAS G. STOWELL.