Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1927-07-31
EARTHQUAKE FEAR
HELD UNJUST|F|ED
SeiSmograph Better, Ire
morS Not Increasing, Ton
doris Reply to AIarmists.


instruments devised by science IL de-
tect the slightest tremoYs oG the earth
EaS sprung up new crop OF alarm
lists, hent evidently on making gull
bic public believe that old Mother
Earth, after NTithing for billions OF
years. Is suffering from sudden
acute attack OF 8oiGmiC Indigestion.
series OF earthquake happenings
still fresh in the public mind undoubt-
eddy would "ccm TO lend some convic-
tio1 to the warnings Of such alarm
lists. Since the Santa Barbara diSdS-
ter ana tho tIem0Ts th9t threw scare
into New England and large Eastern
cities two years ago, certain of these
,statiseically inclined writer's are still
Netting records to prove their Conten-
Mon that earthquake frequency in the
United States il Notably on the in
q ease.
y All this hystcra, in the opinion Of
trained aeismoiogiSta. is a lot 81 bank.
as much so a. tie popularity expressed
views that in the next few years
science will discover some method OF
foretelling great earthquake disasters
with as much accuracy as weather
bureaus the world over now predict
the gathering OF storms or other un-
usual atmospheric conditions.
Tondorf Refutes AIarmis:s
Director Francis A. Tondorf. :. J..
of the chronological observatory at
Georgetown University, a recognized
authority in this strange sciences is
one of those who have little or no pa
thence with the earthquake alarmists.
His exhaustive studies of the earth 5
movements reveal no indication TO
warrant the claim that something out
of the ordinary is taking place within
!. the bowels OF the earth after cen,
turtles Of persistent quivering.
/. Unfortunately, the publicity asso-
ciated with earthquakes today has
given general credence to the false
notion that earthquake frequency IS
notably on the increase" Father Ton
dorf said, Il am not unaware that
some 20 years back Count de Mon
tessus de Balore. at that time director
of the Chilean Seismological ObserVa-
tory, published as the frequency of
earthquakes one every hours and p
minutes. Within the last three years
DR.. Sieberg Of Jenna, one of the fore
most authorities, has found justifica-
ton for placing these figures much
higher, quake for every hour of the
day or about 10, 600 a year.
This, however" he added, proves
no monopoly on earthquakes today,
simply that more are registered al the
,present time because of better OBJ
servatory equipment"
Danger to l.. S. Disputed.
Frequent warnings given by Stats
tically inclined writer's to the effect
that the United States is in constant
danger from earthquake disasters are
held by reputable seismologists to be
wholly without foundation of fact.
Father Tcndorf declared that the
extreme liability fo- the United States
is set for California. with an annual
frequency of 81 occurrences. of which
only eight-tenths of l per cent might
be termed severe" For the whole
area OF the United States the per
centage of severe" Cua kes is still less
one-tenth of 1 per cent, or one chance
in a thousand that anything which
possibly could be conceived as dis
.a8ter should occur.
California as a matter of fact, is the
only section in the United States given
TO unusually heavy local shocks. on
the West Coast there is a mountain
range 1.-THE Coast Range) which geo.
logically is quite unstable and has
been Ekened to q door which rises and
falls on a hinge tthe Sierra Nevada
ETountains), which has swung below
the sea at least mile and above the
sea by an amount equal to its present
elevation, five or six times in the
course, of its geological history. Out Of
the geologic history of the region, there
fore scientists know that tectonlc
forces have been lately and probably
still are active, and this is one OF the
chief reasons why the Carnegie IN
sti4,,tfo, has selected it for the earth
Quake studies now in progress thefe'
4 See No Cause for Alarm.
e III l.
b thousand being of anything IKE Sc
s,era" nronorti0ns, Father Tondorf and
others of his profession are convinced
there is no reason fer people living In
4he United States to fret themselves
ove, future earthquakes. During re-
cent visit in Providence, l.. l., the
Georgetown scientist reassuFed New
F,nglanders that there are about ~
finances of an earthquake occurring IN
or near the Pacific 10 one chance III
the Atlantic or along its shores
Examination of various records
rited by statistical laYmen to nolstef
their contention that the eaftn - ~
Nicted with an acute seismic disease
! Tather Tondorf explained, proved 10
& his satisfaction that il was FAR from
c1ear that all of these earth movements
sah,,Iated were Of seismic origin ana
NOT n single one Of them was acute.
Father Tondorf is firm in the beiier
<ba, the fOrecasting of earthquake
bannenjngs would prove an inesti-
r1able boon to public safety Al
though unwilling 10 discuss ms
phase of scientific discovery, ne Is
not so optimistic as 10 beleVe thaI
any method can he devised at an
early date that will enable seismoi-
pgists to engage in anything approach
ing accurate predict ions.
'iCertain It is that if any such diVi-
nations ever make an approximation
70 the reality ne said, this can
cnlv be mediated through a more
intimate understanding than that
y possessed today Of the causes VI
these earth spasms.
Causes of Major Quakes.
"To date eeophysicists have learned
that many az the major qC3kes hap
,en solely along seams Of weakness
in rocks located 70 a probable max
5mun depth Of % miles in the crust.
Such weaknesses are liable TO frac-
flIre only on the application If
stresses. What precisely are these
stresses? From tne geographical dis
f5.fbu:i0nS Of the ma l0r qu3keS, con
fnca ~ they are. for the most part.
n the east-Evest. mid latitude zone of
The Northern Hemisphere ana TO the
cum-pac.fic zone, the inference Is
Tai- that recent mountain building
and OCEAN cNca " ION figure as the
iprnnaty cau.t> This because these
toned ge..Y Aphsc areas their most
"gut y thee we MUGS add other
e3rtrt.@ ING OF pgec.pit2t'nG causes.
&n1~Z these might he enumerated
= ,r!c r.aa-u rc and variations IN