Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1927-01-23
.POINCARE FOUND WEAKER
In PARIS POLITICAL WHIRL
Fall of Premier Held Among Early
sibilities-Cerman Cabinet
Crisis May Be Factor.


from the press and leaders who are
most loyal and sincere supporters of
the policy of reconciliation with France
that the protests against continued
occupation are most frequently heard.
The truth Is unmistakable that
allied evacuation must now be has
tened. There are dangers for the
FRENCH obviously. Relying upon this
guarantee of the treaty, no steps have
been taken TO fortify the new frontier
OF France. No row works have been
constructed between the Rhine and
the Mouse and the old German forts
are useless. because they were built
to face toward France
Moreover, the situation in Alsace at
the moment is difficult in the extreme.
There has been very active German
propaganda at work. 1t has exploited
the native Alsatian tendency for par
ticularism. II has made it's appeal.
not on the basis Of any return to Ger
many, but rather upon the proposal
TO create an autonomous Alsace, be-
tween France and Germany
The inevitable dislocations and diff
f1culties incident to the change of
regime. the very great difference be-
tween French and German admins.
tratlons, a thousand and one vexa-
tons and troubles have served to
arouse Alsatian resentment, and the
moment is by no means propitious
to retire French troops to the AL
satan boundary
Fear Rise of Resentment.
On the other hand. as BRAND and
every sensible Trenchman sees, the
long protraCtion of allied occupation
Of German lands will create a new
spirit of resentment within Germany
xr-t1 fnI1 will - Il
TO Locarno, and may constitute a far
greater eventual menace to French
security than any immediate danger
following evacuation.
In reality. while a good deal has
happened to calm the surface of
F'ranco-German relations. at bottom
the two people are very far from
having become reconciled in any per-
manent fashion. And no permanent
adjustment is possible while the alb
normal conditions incident to occupa-
ton continue. The very fact of occu.
patton plays into The hands of the
old order and the antl-Locarno groups
and gives them their best political
issue.
At the moment Germany is passing
through a very real and far-reaching
political crisis. 1t has been precipi-
tated by the fight over the army be.
~ CCAA 49, ASdtiOIdltSLS anu the he
publicans. But the Nationalist have
been able to make capital about re-
cent ARRAYS in the occupied zone. and
a Ill Gtrnlan public opinion is becoming
uneasy and aroused.
1t is, after all, of patent advantage
TO the allied states and to France and
Belgium primarily TO see the German
republic endure--Co see Stresemann
| continue TO direct German foreign
| policy. But both the republic and
Stresemann will be compromised IL
allied policy continues TO insist upon
the occupation of German soil
Economic Phase Of Tholry.
AT Thoiry BRAND sought to find
basis for financial advantage to
France which would counterbalance
the sacrifice OF the security incident
to, continued occupation. He failed.
because 1t was at once made clear
that the United States Government
would not assist in the ffotation Of
German railway securities while the
French DEBT remained unfunded.
IhiS American veto, temporarily at
least, wrecked the Thoiry proposals.
French political views with respect
to the debt remain obscure. On the
surface there is nothing to show that
the majority against ratification of
the Mellon Berenger accord. which
was overwhelming in September, has
deadlock continues it is hard to see
how and where there can be any
bargain available which will give
France money advantages in return
for sacrifices in the. matter Of Sc.
curity.
Poincare's own party, the Ma
tlonalist elements, has very recent
ly taken a definite stand against the
treaty. The same views have been
very sharply enunciated by both the
Socialist and Radical parties BRAND.
to be sure. advocates ratification. So
probably does Poincare, although his
opinion has been more or less change
able. But the majority of the mem
bers or both the Senate and the Cham.
Der and the great mass of the French
people are solidly hostile.
Bankers and business men advo.
cate ratification. They quite frankly
declare the terms to be too severe
and with equal frankness assert that.
while the debt accord must be rati.
fed. 1T can never be fulfilled on the
present basis. But they believe that
ratincation would insure American
financial assistance in the inevitable
task of sterilization, and all desire
that sterilization as the first step in.
restoring normal conditions.
Had Chance OF Ratification.
Poincare might have obtained rati.
f1cation when he first came TO bower
at the moment of panic, although
this is open to doubt. But the gem
eral situation within France has now
improved. and with Improvement the
people see far less reason for under
taking burdens which they do not
regard as representing just obligations
and all feel are beyond French ca
pacity.
Poincare would certainly fall if he
sought to interfere with Brands for
eign policy, which just as certainly
envlSages relatively prompt evacu-
alton of the Rhineland He might
fall If he made the matter of the debt
settlements a question of confidence
in the chamber. But even BRAND rec
ognlzes the fact that while the French
public would probably agree to evacu-
alton, If this were accompanied by
financial benefits, it would be much
less easy to win popular support IL
no French benefit were discoverable.
In reality the whole situation in
Europe is now become obscure be.
cause of the French and German do
mestic political situations. 1t is al
most impossible to tell how the cat is
going to jump either in Paris or Ber-
lin. Nationalist cabinet in Berlin
would certainly strengthen Poincare
and weaken BRAND in France. But
the fall of Poincare might CORE
spondingly strengthen the Republican
cause in Germany.
Violent Change Unlikely.
Nothing is likely to happen to pro-
duce immediate and violent changes
in the foreign policies of either France
or Germany. The majority in each
country Is clearly for Locarno solu-
lions. But. on the other hand. there