Evening star., 1927-11-12
WORLD FINANCE
ON EVE OF CHANGE
Underlying Thought Is How
OF Accommodate Markets
to Dawes Transfers.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

Armistice day this year was not un-
like the other anniversaries OF the
mast. but the indications are that the
zenith next year, may tell dinerenV
For the underlying thought today Is
how the world shall accommodate IL
self to the huge payments Whlch Yer.
ranv is to make in 1928 as a part Oh
+be Dawes plan. Already here ana IN
the financial centers of the Worlu ',le
discussion of the strain that VIII DE
nIaced on international eXchahSe
through the transfer of money IRON,
germany to the allies has covered
MANY different phases, indeed no sun
iect is believed to be more vital 10
3ha American trade outlook and, OF
course. the American productlon
curve. ..o,..
German bankers in recent weeks
bava heen crowding the council rooms
of American banking houses looklns
for funds not merely to finance thelr
own enterprises in Germany, put III
other parts of the world.
Americans Are Cautious.
The American attitude has been one
of extreme caution, not because OF
any real doubt as to the merit ot
these enterprises but the difficulty Oh
assuring American investors that IN
torest navments will be met without
in+erfere1ce by the reparatlons COM
missions or rather the So-called trans
fer, commission, which may limit the
ap,ount that can be exported from
Germany so as to keep su1flclent lulluS
for reparations payments. Also lllele
is some uncertainty as TO the aliiouill
Of canital levies that will be maue W
meet the payments to the allles.
This problem is not neW' OIL cot'lsG
II has been foreseen by many Amer
can banking institutions, Wnlcn nav
been careful to protect their invest.
ors but the further development VI
German business, especially abroad is
imneded by the uncertainty ana untl
fba air is cleared American fundS,
which have been abundant this year.
will be withheld to a large extent.
ONLY now and then when interest
payments can be assumed 10 COME
from sources outside of Germany
through the intricacieS of international
exchange have loans been made WITH
instant success.
Municipalities have been anxious to
borrow money. There has been little
doubt about the merit of such German
tions commission toward the priority
in future years of reparation pay
ments over all else has beclouded the
situation.
Bankers May Exert Pressure.
So in the next several months the
expectation is that the bankers Of the
world will exert pressure for solu.
tion. They are not likely to wait till
the last minute. Some American
economists and industrial leaders like
Bernard NJ. Baruch, for instance. VINO
was responsible for the economic
clauses of the Versailles conference,
believe that when the payments on
the Dawes plan are adjusted to meet
the conditions of the hour. the world
will go forward to a prosperity un-
heard Of in history.
There is, of course, a different frame
of mind in the allied world today than
even three years ago. No longer is 1t
a question of national pride or re-
venge. France, like Great Britain, rec
ognizes that Germany should be per.
mitted to pay the allies only such sums
as will not disturb world exchange.
This means some modification of the
Dawes plan, but the principal feature
Of that project was elasticity-it was
~ I'AOFAeC q liO
tons of the world could handle the
reparation problem as an economic and
not a political matter.
The bankers of all countries, espe-
cially of the allied nations, now are
vitality interested in preserving an
equilibrium. Practically all countries
have at least agreed on the amounts
due war debts, and the payments are
by TO means heavy in the next or
10 rears. BY the time Armistice day
comes around next year the hope of
the American Government, American
bankers and business men, as well as
the leaders Of finance throughout the
world. is that the great problem Of
transfer of reparation payments will
have been solved. It will be mark
OF economic peace.
fCopyright. 1927