New Britain herald., 1927-09-10
BUSINESS OUTLOOK
 MODERATELY GOOD Roger ". BabSon Says CoInpe- tition Severe and Efficiency Low RAPS LACK OF RELIGION
Noted Statistician Sees Period Of Declining Interest Rates With Ex- cess Of Gold, Manufacturing Ca paCity and Raw Materials.

Wellesley Hills, Mass, Sept 10 UP)-The immediate outlook for business is moderately good" Ro- ger w. Babson, noted statistician. told the 14th annual national bus mess conference here today. The great need Of 1928. he said. was for the world 10 recognize the basic fact that all past. present and future legislation could not change either the multiplication table or the 10 commandments.
 He discussed a curious paradox which, he said, appeared to exist in the business world today.
 'I refer to the fact that we are in a period of declining interest rates which heretofore has never been fol- lowed by a panic" he said and at the same time are in g. period of declining comm odity prices, which heretofore has never been followed by good times.
 That is, economic history shows that it has always needed high in- terest rates to bring on a panic: that it has always needed increasing com modity prices to bring on prosperity and that the two factors have never before existed simultaneously. Yet today we have the apparent paradox of low interest rates and declining commodity prices. This probably explains the marked differ- ence of opinion as to the future which exists today amongst the best financial and business leaders," Lack of Religion Babson said the reason for the unusual situation was that there was today in the United States an excess of everything except religion.
 He declared there was an excess of gold. which was the basic cause of present dangerous imitation: there was an excess of manufacturing ca pacity, which was the cause of pres ent severe competition; and there was an excess of copper, lumber, oil, coal. rubber and other raw ma terials, which was upsetting com modity markets.
 "The volume of business today Is guod." asssrt.a. ''hut competition is so severe and efficiency so l|. that profits are very small. statistics indicate that this same condition will extend into 1928. We cannot expect a panic so long as money continues easy: nor can we 1. N. modity prices continue to decline.
 Apparently a definite turn down. ward in volume of new building is underway. The current drop in building permits, to about 20 per cent below year ago, shows what must be expected for 1928 in house building.
 Yet in some sections the build ing outlook is still good. The cen tral west and northwest districts are expected to make a good show ing In 1928 because of crop optim- ism and these sections should be good markets for materials.
 "The south also promises some increase in building as result of higher cotton and corn prices"
 Babson said the closest estimates Of consumer buying power for 1928 pointed to an average about per cent to 10 per cent under 1927.
 Business men should plan for sub- stantial improvement in 1928, he said, in these states: Nebraska, North Dakota. South Dakota. Mon tana, Washington, Oregon. Texas. California. North Carolina, South Carolina Georgia, Alabama and Ok lahoma.
 Tn the industrial sections, Babson declared, the best outlook for 1928 was In New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Ohio.