Evening star., 1927-11-27
FRENCH PROSPER AGAIN
AS WAR SLUMP PASSES
Country Returning to Normal as Franc
Holds Firm and Budg get Shows First
Balance i'm Years.

Germany, Italy and Britain have 90
far been unable 70 sell abroad IN pro-
portion as they buy. The result for
Germany ard Italy has been the in.
crease in foreign debt, for Great Brit.
ain the absol ption of all the income
from foreign investments and serv.
ices and liquidation Of some of these
outright.
1t is true at the moment that Ger
many is passing through something
like a boom, particularly in its heavy
industries. But this boom is limited
to the domestic market; with borrow
ed money German industries are be-
Ing expanded, but all experts are
looking ahead anxiously to the mo-
ment when these loans must cease
and are calculating how Germany
will meet the new burdens as well
as the Dawes plan requirements.
France seems prosperous. But IL
remains true that France faces one
peril which is hardly to be eXagger-
ated. All that has been so far labori-
Ously achieved can be upset by poli-
tics. And at the moment. every out
ward sign points toward the over
throw of the present coalition cabi-
net, which under Poincare saved
France and the franc, and the re-
turn to that combination OF Radicals
franc foundered and national bank
ruptcy was near.
Cneasiness Noticed.
Prosperity or even continued sol
yencv depends, after all, upon the
maintenance of domestic confidence.
There are already signs of uneasl'
ness which might easily forecast
new flight from the franc following
Of q
group dominated by Socialist ailes,
without whose votes the Radicals
could not hold office. 1t may be true'
as the Radicals and Socialists charge,
that their political opponents are de-
liberately seeking to promote a new
manic to prevent the Radicals from
getting office. But the obvious truth
is that business and finance Is again
becoming nervous and the 1eenns
of uncertainty may have disagreeaple
consequences even before the election.
Americans will naturally ask wheth'
er. in view of the present prosperity
in France, there is any change IN
the sentiment with respect to the
debts. / doubt it. The parliament
now in session will certainly not
undertake to ratify the 'BerenSer-
Mellon agreement and run the risk
of punishment at the hands of their
constituents. To save the franc
Poincare had to impose great tax
burdens. The franc has been saved.
but the burdens remain, and the
mass of voters who have pronted
are in revolt against the costs. All
the election promises of his opponents
are directed at establishing the idea
that if they win they will shift the
burden. that they will penalize the
rich and relieve the poor. They can
not promise to lessen the total sum
which must be collected, but they can
appeal to class feeling, to demagogic
arguments and this, under cover, they
are certainly doing.
Better Debt Plan Sought.
Moreover, there is nothing to sug-
gest that the mass of the peasants
have changed their minds about the
debt settlement or that the Radicals
and Socialists. who have been most
open in their opposition, have changed
their tune. Payments on account
and in conformity with the schedule
of the MellonBerenger agreement
may and probably will be continued.
conviced that it will be possible to
negotiate a better settlement.
French bitterness against the
United States has well nigh disap-
peared. The Legion, Lindbergh, a
dozen similar incidents, together with
the improvement in French condi-
tions themselves have dissipated the
passion and bitterness of last year.
The American feels again travelling
through France that he is welcome.
There is absent from the press al
most all of the slightly concealed. but
ironical and even bitter comment.
But this change has not extended to
modification of the view about the
debt
France is still reducing her army,
the passions of the war time are dis
appearing, life in most respects is
becoming more and more normal. For.
eign politics still dominates the Paris
press. but the peasant and the work.
ingman are apparently less and less
occupied with them. AS the campaign
comes on, the issues become more and
more parochial and personal. Even
larger problems of national life, such
as that of financial stability. are, as
l have said, being increasingly ig.
nored. Domestic taxes rather than ma.
tional security seem bound to domi.
nate the French mind for the next
months. But this condition carries
with 1t the greatest and perhaps the
single menace to prosperity which
seems otherwise to have been gener.
ally and permanently restored.
fCopyright. 1927