Evening star., 1927-03-10
QUAKE IS TRACED
TO 1923D|SASTER
Mondays Shocks In Japan
Held Reoccurence of
Former TremorS.

That Mondays earthquake which
rocked central Japan, taking toll OF
thousands of lives, was q recurrence
of the great catastrophe that laio
Toxic low on September /. 1928. was
the opinion expressed here today py
Rev. Francis A. Tondorf. 8. j., inter
nationally known SeiSmolog1St ana di-
rector of the Georgetown University
Seismic Observatory.
japan may suffer even a greater
calamity in a few years, Director Ton
dorf warned, If the earth movements
that spread destruction this week nave
not adjusted themselves. Mondays
quake was of much greater intensity
than the shocks of three years ago, ne
estimated, and supports the of1lclal
view held then that the adjustment In
the earlier quake was not complete.
Whether a third phase OF the TOXIC
quake is to follow In the wake Of the
resent disaster, he pointed out, can
not be determined by seismologists
until a thorough study has been made
of these tremors. After-ShockS can be
expected for quite while, he declared,
but these will be Of only slight
nature.
Forty-eighth Severe Quake.
Mondays quake, Director Tondorf
said, figures as the forty-eighth in the
history of severe seismic occurrences
in Japan, AS in 1928, the recent
tremors were ''tectonic," or caused by
the slipping of the rock strata at
great depths, due to faulting or tensile
stresses.
A study of the 1923 disaster proved
that approximately 80 per cent Of the
loss of life and property was not
caused by the earthquake itself, he
pointed out, but by the resulting fire.
The quake of 1923, he claimed, was
slight in comparison with Mondays
shocks, and only the fact that these
occurred distant from centers of pop
ulation prevented the disaster from as
suming greater proportions.
'"The geological environment OF ia
pan offers the least immunity against
earthquakes of all the continental
areas of the world" said Director Ton
dorf, with the possible exception of
the Kermadec and Tonga, sometimes
known as the Friendly Islands, stu
ated north of New Zealand, in the
southern Pacific.
Adjustment Incomplete.
Japan geographically drops off
rather abruptly into the Tuscarora
deep, with a maximum depth of $4,000
feet. It is obvious that this violent
departure from cruStal level must OF
necessity be held responsible for the
gigantic stresses. Again, the relative
structures of the crust beneath tbs
troughs and Of the abutting mountain
chains have been found to be such as
to cause the troughs to be elevated
and the mountain ranges to sink.
Hence a persistent tendency to ver-
teal shearing.
I'm sthe quake of Monday we have
a relief of these strains. 1t is interest
ing to note that this quake, Sollowing
so closely in the wake of the catas-
trophe of September /, 1928, indicates
that the adjustment in the first quake
was not complete: This stands con
firmed in the official report of DIR.
Imamura, now the director of the
imperial chronological investigations
committee of Japan, who stated that
the quake of 1923 was not severe,
though the casualties We're more than
100, 900 and the property loss in excess
of $4,000,000
Reports that Japan experiences an
average of / 400 earthquakes year,
or about four day, were ridiculed by
Director Tondorf, who declared that
the average is not more tfl&n Alb
yearly, of which only 8 per cent might
be characterized as heavy quakes..
These figures, he said, are advanced
by DIR. Sieberg of Jena, perhaps the
greatest known seismologist in the
world, who recently made a careful
recalculation of tremors the world
over.
One Tremor Every Hour.
DIR. Sieberg has found justification
for placing the estimated number for
the world at one quake for every hour
i'm the day. This, however, Director
Tondorf points out. proves no monop-
oily on quakes, the explanation being
that more are registered at the pres
ent time because of better observa-
tory equipment.
Forecasting of earthquake happen
ings would prove an inestimabie boon
to mankind, he declared, and is not
entirely beyond the realm of future
researches which may discover a
method whereby such foretellings may
be possible. The science OF seismol.
ogy. however, is in it's infancy. am
until a great deal more research Is
AA