Evening star., 1927-06-19

this week have pointed out that a
very similar condition obtained when
settlement began TO spread eastward
over Siberia. There was the same
dread of the vast. black steppes as at
| taChed to the American prairies.
In the first decade of the twentieth
! century the turn of the curve down
ward was slow. But by 1920 the
! pioneers were definitely getting on
! poorer soil again. Thousands of acres
| in Montana which never should have
/ been ploughed considering the eco
nomic condition of the country, was
! planted to wheat, with disastrous con-
sequences. The pioneer was back
| where he had started three centuries
| before.
What will be the story of the
| future? Prophecy is dangerous and
! the Department of Agriculture statis-
| ticians are loath to indulge in it. But
there are certain fundamental laws
! underlying history. Is America ready
| at last for the landed aristocrat, living
/ at leisure on the rents from his vast
acres? This might be the case except
for one very important Development
the increase of scientific knowledge.
The population will increase. More
| food will be needed. The fertile land
is occupied The new farmer must
e1II1Cr rent OE take HIS CndHC6S Win
poorer land. This condition is exactly
the reverse to that which followed the
Revolution.
Waste i'm L. s. Greater.
buJ, temporarily at least, 1t isn't
working out that way. Stree 1920 the
population has increased. Wages have
increased. More people want more
food and more clothes. Richer people
demand better food and clothes. The
American people waste more than any
| other people in the history of the
world. Yet the demand for land
actually has grown less. There has
been a great agricultural depression
in spite of the decreasing market.
Less land is under cultivation. The
actual production per acre has not in
creased. The farmer has been too
poor to buy fertilizer sufficient to
more than barely maintain the fertil-
ity of his soil. The eating habits of
the American people have not changed
from meat to vegetables and fruits,
which might explain the paradox.
But still agricultural production has
increased in the past five years faster
than ever before in American history.
Curiously. about one-tenth of the in
crease is due to an increasing Ameri-
can appetite for pork and pork
products. 1t requires only two acres
and a half to produce pork enough
to feed man, whereas Is acres are
required to produce enough beef
But the great bulk of the increase,
DR.. Baker finds, is due to increased
efficiency in Transforming vegetable
material into meat, due to better hogs,
cows, sheep and poultry. 1t is a
ri nh nf Gf hrnndnY md nf
education. The farmer has found out
the futility of keeping a second-rate
COW whon a good milker would eat
no ms.e. He sends the first to the
slauS Iterhouse. He no longer bothers
with poor layers or poor mixers. He
has learned just when to dispose of
his beef cattle and hogs so that there
will be no waste. He can fatten them
faster by improved methods. The
great epizotics, such as hog cholera,
which formerly caused great wastage
and loss, hase been reduced to
minimum. Thus more is produced on
less acreage.
Tractor Replaces Horse.
There is one other factor. The
horse and mule are giving away to
the tractor. The feed formerly re.
quired for these working animals now
can be released to beef cattle and
hogs. Thousands of acres thus are
diverted into producing food for man.
But, DIR. Baker warns, this cannot
continue forever. There will be a
limit. likely to be reached in the next
two decades, in the continued improve
ment of blooded stock. There certainly
must be some upper limit to the
amount of milk cow will yield or
to the weight which a hog can reach.
A still more important factor is
industrial prosperity. Just now the
factory offers more than the farm.
The production of tractors is more
profitable than their use. But let
period of prolonged industrial depres-
sion affiict the United States. Markets
viii fall off. The factory worker will
go back to the land. He .-ill start
using horses and mules again to culti
vate smaller tracts. The land ra-
leased for food production will be
taken up again to raise hay for
horses. Then will come the problem
of increasing the fertility of the soil
so that there will be greater yields
per acre. Slowly, as population in
creases and the demand for food
grows, men will turn to poorer land
again. Half the land in the United
States which might be cultivated still
remains uncultivated. The age of the
pioneer would be on again, under far
different circumstances. In other
words, the present status quo between
food and population is only temporary
and its end will be accompa MED by
uncertain social consequences.
Among the eventualities predicted
by DR.. Baker is the removal Of indus
try to the fertile land OF the Middle
West and away from the unproduc.
tive soil of the East. 1t is cheaper
to produce food on rich land. Con-
sequently it is sold cheaper in the
neighborhood of rich land. The in
dustrial worker buys food. Wages are
based more or less on the cost Of food.
Thus the industry is best situated
which is closer to cheap food. DIR.
Baker points to the development of
the automobile industry in the Middle
West rather than the East as illus
trative of this trend.
Population Gain to Stop.
With the increased efficiency made
possible by science, the whole world
seems now to be in q status quo
between growth Of population and
| production of food but statisticians
| "'tte~hS iic fochiIS dHedu W tue udy
when this will no longer be true. This
was illustrated this week in the
| address of DR.. Albrecht Penck Of
/ Holland. before the international
! Congress of Soil Science, meeting here
| DIR. Penck predicted that the growth
| Of the worlds population must stop
when IL reaches 5000. .000. .000---a figure
| likely to be reached in the next three
or four hundred years. But it is a
strange picture he paints of the world
that is to be, in accordance with the
| fundamental laws underlying the
philosophy of history 1t is a world
whose great cities will line not the
! Mississippi or the Rhine but the
Amazon and the kongo. and whose
! density of population will be along the
: ,t1.t. IL.