Evening star., 1927-11-06

american naval Oihcer. inventor and Author.
HAT Japan will seize the Phil
1ppineS some day is more than
so per cent probable for many
Il reasons. OF these the two
major reasons are:
First-The skillful diplomacy of
Britain's and Japans delegates at the
armament conference in 1922, brought
about an agreement which makes it
easy for Japan to capture the Philip
pines, and supremely difficult for the
United States to recapture them.
Second-Their capture by Japan
would be of enormous advantage, not
only to Japan, but also to Great Brit
ain, for the reason that we would
have to send all our fleet and mer-
chant marine to the vicinity of the
Philippine Islands. This would leave
all the oceans open to the mastery
of Great Britain, and restore her auto
matically to her former grand posi-
tion as the mistress of the seas.
Not only this, England's magnifi-
cent manufacturing and transporta
tion facilities will enable her to sell
all sorts of merchandise to both sides
at her own prices. and get quickly
out OF the distressing economic con-
dition in which she is at present. And
not only this! The fact that it would
be to her interest to have Japan win
will expose her to the irresistible
tempta ton to assist Japan. as she did
when Japan fought Russia % years
ago. To assist Japan without our
being able to convict her Of rendering
unneutral service will be very easy.
for the reason that her ships can ply
hack and forth close to the China
coast, secure from examination on our
part.
1t is essential to realize this situa-
ton clearly if any one wishes to get
a correct idea Of the enormous handi.
cap that our Navy will have to fight
under in what will most probably be
our next naval war.
In order to realize the crushing inn
portance of that handicap we must
first realize the vastness of the ocean;
the tremendous force of the winds
that Navy vessels must be able TO
withstand: the height and the VIC.
lence of the waves: the thousands of
tons of fuel, supplies and ammunl-
ton that must be continuously sup
piled: the hundreds of merchant yes
sells that will be needed in addition to
the fighting ships-and then realize
the consequent comparative helpless
ness of our feet. exposed to continual
attacks by virile enemy While 1,oo0
miles away from it's own bases, but
close to the bases of the enemy.
Imagine our fleet starting westward
from Honolulu to try to recapture the
Philippine Islands, mission dt is
mathematically probable) that 1t will
be ordered to carry out some day.
Il r X X
IMAGINE the determined attacks on
our fleet by night and by day.
especially from submarines. that VIII
begin not many days afterward-at-
tacks from bases on islands given TO
Japan by the Treaty of Versailles.
Reaching the vicinity of the Philip.
pines. then possessed by Japan and
constituting a Japanese naval base
of the most effective kind possible.
what will our ships do? They cannot
get into Manila Bay even II our forfl-
fications on Corregidor still STAND.
without a tremendous battle north OF
Luzon Island and along Its western
coast, in which many OF our SHIPS
will be injured and some sunk. Some
Japanese vessels will suffer likewise.
But any injured japanese vessel can
and refuge not far away, as both
Rritish and German vessels did In the
last war. AS for an injured Ameri-
can ship. Honolulu win be 5000 miles
away. with only a very small harDor
there and only one dry dock on II.
powerful element of the japanese
attack will be airplanes, especially
torpedo planes and bombers. based on
nearby islands. Our ships VIII De
able to use some airplanes IN reply
hut IL must be apparent to anybody
that these airplanes viii be few in
comparison. and also that they VIII
operate under great comparative dis
advantages from their moving, roll