Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1927-01-15
BY c. STANLEY TAYLOR.

new building conStruc' to'.. according
to the Architectural Forum, which
today made public its forecast fol
Operations for 1927.
Including alterations and unrecord
ed transactions during the past year
the total eXper 1iture probably tops
the $1,000 600 600 mark, establishing
= scord Of construction activity. and
one that MAJ remain unequaled fol
many years to come
. A year ago when figures were tab
tlated for 1925, it was felt that that
year in al likelihood had set a total
which might never be equaled and
that while conservative forecasts for
1926 promised another $4,000 900 000
building year. ii was rot conceived by
any one that this figure would be as
gre1tly exceeded a. it has been
similarly, it is difficult to conceive
tfNt 1927 VIII see as great a national
building investment rs that of 1926.
All indications point to the fact that
Whlle 1922 will probably prove to be
one of the great years of building his.
tory, its total investment in new
building construction will be approx
mately II per cent less than in 1926.
In other words. the forecast, based
on an extensive survey, indicates for
1927 a total of about $4,000 900 900, as
opposed TO the $4,000 GEO 900 record of
1926.
Base Figures on Survey.
For several years past the Archi-
tectural Forum has carried out a com
prehensive survey among architects
obtaining over 1000 confidential re-
ports of work actually on the boards
or seriously contemplated to reach
the contract stage The following year
Having these actual figures i'm hand,
1t has been found possible 10 apply
series of ratios which have resulted
each year in fairly close approxima-
ton of actual figures ultimately re-
corded.
Primarily, of course. this forecast
deals with work carried out through
architects offices. hut with the excep-
ton of small residential work (1ouses
under 100000 and factory buildings,
the bulk OF the building of this coun-
try is controlled by architects. To
the figure established by new work
must, of course, be added an estimate
covering remodeling and alterat lions.
This is presented in more detail in
later paragraphs.
In order that some detailed measure
may be had of anticipated building
activity during the year 1927. the
architects reports nave been cor
related and weighted for presentation
TO the accompanying table. which
shows the expected activity in 10
types of buildings, allocated to six
divisions Of the country. This tabu-
lation shows a total of 81 1856. 8IT 500,
which. ii is believed, represents the
approximate. value of the new con-
struction which will be planned and
executed in 1927 through architects.
In addition. there WIN be several hun
dred million dollars expended for
small residences in rural districts.
which do not come within the archi-
tect's scope of sci vice, together with
a large volume ef Industrial building
and a considerable program of re-
modelling, d part Of which is handled
by the architect but which is not
recorded in this table. In total. there
fore. the forecast for 1927 exceeds
Sc. 900, 900, 900.
1t is quite probable that consid-
cradle part of the decrease in building
activity in 1927 as compared to 1926,
will be found IN the cutting down
of cheap, speculative building. From
important mortgage money sources it
IS learned that the constantly grow
ing tendency is to discourage fiimsy
construction, and the supervision Of
specifications has been developed to
considerable degree of efficiency as
compared to the poor methods of con-
troll exercised in past years.
Better Housing Desired.
OF course, one of the principal rea-
sons for the great volume of building
activity during 1926. and as antici-
pated for 1927. is the desire of the
public for better housing of all kinds
and for more modern and
attractive environment in which 10
carry on commercial and institutional
functions We must also take into
n Oh n
of new residential districts tdue to
TRANSFORMATION improvements and the
growing habit of developing new
business centers in the larger cities
areas where certain trades are becom-
ing concentrated. This tendency is
noteworthy, not only in New York,
but in practically all of the larger
cities IN the country
Coupled with these greatly increased
standards of social and commercial
housing conditions. there is the sig
niffcant fact that the continued period
Of prosperity has placed the public in
a position to pay Tor what it wants
IN the way Of new buildings.
In spite of occasional comments
there appears at present no great dan
ger of overbuild;ng. because, after all
the building demand of this country
is not primarily for space alone, but
for SDace of a satisfactory quality
Here. then. we find conditions which
are certainly discouraging from the
viewpoint Of owners Of old buildings
partIcularly those which physically
or because of local conditions. are APP
nroaching the state Of obsOlescence
The competition OF new buildings
naturally will be too great to sustain
values in old structures. but it is prob
ahIe that the new buildings them
selves will not suffer materially. eX
cent in isolated instances Of a tempo
rary satiatIon.
For the entire United States, new
automotive buildings, bank buildings
club and fraternal buildings, com
munity and memorial buildings, hos
pitals. commercial buildings schools
stores. theaters and welfare buildings
will be constructed in approximately
the same proportion to the total new
construction as was the case in 1926
A considera BILE increase is antiCipat eC
i'm the building of apartment hotels
churches and public buildings. Apart
ment buildings will represent a some
what larger proportion Of the new
construction than in 1926.
Hotel Construction Less.
The construction of new hotels
nromises 10 be probably 20 per cen
less than the actual figures Of 1926
In forecasting hotel construction las
wear. the Architectural Forums fig
ura turned out to be Considerabl,
foo high. because it included a larg,
number OF projects which failed t.
materialize, due to failure in financing
programs.
In Florida. for instance. many no
tells which actually reached the foun
Anfon stage We're not completed he
csusA of the collapse of the boom