Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1926-01-10
Fifty Years Ago
In The Star

ON the eve Of the presidential cam
paign 80 years ago speculation was
rife as 10 the chances
PoNtlcal for Democratic success
Forecast. and some estimates OF
the result that in the
light OF subsequent events are no"
rather amusing were advanced. In
The Star of January 8, 1876. IS one
of these forecasting surveys. follow
ing recital Of the preliminary
meetings Of the national committees
and arrangements for the conventions.
.eThe ratification meetings will open
the campaign by July, and II promises
RI he confined for active work 10 a
smaller number Of States, though az
gregating just one-fifth of The cleo
toraI vote. than will at first glance
no s,pposed. A leading Democrat and
well known and careful Republican
recently ascertained this to be the TACT
in the following calculation, on WHICH
they both agreed
In table were then given the
names of II States rated as probably
Il States probably Democratic. with
1872 votes. and 6 doubtful states, with
"a votes. The Republican States we're
Maine. New Hampshire, Vermont.
! Massachusetts, Rhode Island, PennSyl-
yania. Ohio. Michigan, Wisconsin
Illinois. Iowa Minnesota, Nebraska :
| Kansas. Colorado, Nevada and South
| Carolina. The Democratic states We're
! Delaware Maryland. Virginia. West
1 tranER1A
! Florida. Alabama. Mississippi, Louisi-
| ana Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri,
| Arkansas and Texas. The doubtful
! States were Connecticut, New York,
New Jersey, California, oregon ana
Indiana. The Star continued:
| I'm the list of Democratic States
If will be noticed that every South
| ern State is given to that party. ex-
cept South Carolina, and in the Re
publican list Colorado, which VIII De
| admitted this year before the election.
Is added. The tables then stand: Re
! publican. 1914: Democratic, 132; total
| electoral votes, $40. Of which lS6 votes
are REQUIRED TO elect" The total here
| given is one more than the actua
| number, Tennessee being incorrectly
accredited with IS instead OF II Notes.l
1.-THE Republicans lack p and the
| Democrats 54 To secure these 1t Is
very evident that the latter must nave
| New York, for with that State and
two or three others on the doubtful
list the REQUIRED number can be OBJ
tanned without even the Is eiectoral
votes of Indiana. But if New Jersey
and Connecticut are lost Indiana. New
| York and California must be saved
| TO win the day. In any event, the
state of New York must be kept
within the Democratic column If the
party wins and will necessarily be
the center of the presidential battle
! ground. On her borders VIII be the
| contest over New Jersey and Cen
necticut. while in the West and on the
| Pacific slope Indiana, California and
| Oregon will be the scene or 81 am
mated conflict.
This view of the situation. with
| New York almost hanging in the bal
| ance, gives Gov. Tilden's supporters
a claim for his nomination, for with
| ont that State II must he confessed
especially in the West and South
that he has very little political
strength. The conduct of his party
| friends in New York City last fall lost
the party their control there and, add
ed to the course he has pursued IT
affairs without the city. nearly lost
| 1t in the State. With a strong feeling
against him among some of the Demo
cratic leaders in New York, and with
the Legislature in the hands Of the
Republicans, it is by no means Ger
tain that he could save the State. Il
the Republicans carry New York, 81
which they are now very confident
they secure more than the % electora
votes which they need 10 elect the
President. Foreign complications. the
failure of the new House Of Repre-
sentatives to meet the expectations OF
the country and other formidable
events may change the present sit
uation;' but In the present light tbs
tables as we have given them seen
to be acceptable to good judges ir
both parties"
This estimate did not forecast the
electoral votes of Florida and Louisi
ana, IL in all. that were cast for the
Republican candidate by virtue of de
cision of the electoral commission
New York. despite the confidence OF
the Republicans, gave its 30 electora
votes to Tilden by $4,000 plurality
though these votes failed TO elect
MIN,