Evening star., 1926-10-29

sumers needlessly alarmed. It remains
to be seen how strongly the milk
charges have sunk into the electorate.
Just as the discussion Of an alleged
water power graft has diverted at
tention in the Maryland campaign
from the wet and dry issue the milk
issue has served to remove from the
present New York campaign, so far
as the governorship is concerned, the
booze issue.
II thought when this campaign
began" said Gov. Smith in an inter.
view today, that the Republican can
didate for governor was going to dis.
cuss the issues Of State government.
But instead, for the last three weeks
l have been listening to the worst
bunk / ever heard
his attention was called to a. pre-
dictlon by former Mayor Hylan, a
Hearst man, that Smith would be
beaten.
The former monarch of Bushwick
IS a dead one" was the only comment
he would make.
G. o. p. Sees Close Race.
Over al Republican headquarters.
however. the word goes out that the
gubernatorial contest is a real horse
race. They insist that the fact Smith
is seeking a fourth term is hurting
him, that the scool teachers are
against him because he would not
stand for their salary increase bill,
that the registration in New York
City this year is 10000 less than In
1924. while 1t is only 5000 less up
State than 1t was two years ago.
Most Of the voters who failed to
register in New York City, the Re.
publicans say, would be Democratic
They say, too. that Gov. Smiths CAIN
paign this year is really a campaign
for the Presidential nomination In
1928 and there are plenty of voters
who do not like the idea of Smiths
becoming a Presidential nominee.
Nor do the people want Al Smith
10 establish q dynasty in this state"
said one Republican leader.
The Republicans see the present
campaign as an absolute injury to
Smiths chances for the Democratic
domination for President two years
hence.
If Gov. Smith fails to win by as
big a margin as he did two years
ago, he will lose prestige, and if he
only noses out Mills, or loses, his
chances are cooked" they say.
Rock. Bottom Estimates.
When Republicans get down to
brass tacks, their estimates are that
Smiths plurality In New York will
not exceed $4,000 votes. They expect
Mills to come down to New York
City with a lead of $4,000 from
Upstate. These they say are their
rock-bottom tigures--although they
vary greatly from the more rosy views
taken in their public statements. They
hgure privately that the race is eX-
ceedingly close. with Mills meek
But these are hopes. The PROSPECT
is that Gov. Smith will win the cleo.
ton. An estimate from an impartial
political observer who has followed
New York politics for years is that
his plurality will be greater than in
1924, when despite the fact that
president Coolidge carried New York
by about 100000 votes over the COM
olned vote of Davis and La Follettte.
GOV. Smith was elected by lO9. 900
over his opponent, Roosevelt.
1t Is admitted that Mills is probably
a stronger candidate than Roosevelt,
put Mills does not have the presi-
oentlal election to help him this year.
Inc fact that registration has fallen
OH IN democratic districts in Greater
Ne" York is explained by the fact
these districts have been tenement
districts and their inhabitants have
moved to Brooklyn and other sections
OF the city. 1t is estimated that
SMITHS plurality in the city will be
as nigh as 100000, after careful figur.
ing and taking into consideration
some elements of weakness. The same
estimate does not give Mills a lead
Upstate greater than 800 900.
Other Criticisms of Smith.
Scme Of the elements Of weakness
or Smith. outside Of any possible ef-
feet the milk attacks of Mills NAV
nave had, are listed as follows: Oppo-
sition by cloak and garment makers.
who have been disgruntled because
Smith appointed a committee to inter-
Vene III their strike. and the report
OF the committee was not acceptable;
opposition by some of tho school
teachers because of the Smith veto
of q pay increase bill: opposition by
the remnant Of the De Valera Irish
Republic group and opposition be-
cause of tn" pro- World Court plank
which was included in the State Dem.
ociatic platform this year at the re-
quest Of Smith
If Gov. Al Smith-wins the Guberna-
torial ciection--and there seems every
reason TO believe that he will, despite
the Republican hopes and clajms--he
IS going to be a candidate for the
Democratic presidential nomination in
1928, and it will be Smith, not Nc
Adoo. that the other candidates will
have 10 stop at the national con-
vcution. The Republicans have
rightly pictured the gubernatorial
campaign as. q curtain raiser for what
is to take place two years hence But,
while the Republicans figure this is
q handicap to Smith in his present
race. the determination of New York
Democracy to have Smith as the party
standard bearer in 1928 will bring out
the vote for the governor