Evening star., 1926-06-12
WEATHER HAS PLAYED HAVOC
WITH RETAIL TRADE THIS YEAR
Roger Babson Finds Spring Goods Have Moved
Slowly-Advises Diversifcation of Stock to
Avoid, as Much as Possible, Seasonal Changes

SUMS heat and, in turn, control in
land weather. Because the oceans are
slow to respond to changes in solar
radiation, and because of the time
required for the flow of ocean cur
rents, certain lags doubtless must be
calculated. Hence. according to the
theory, the most intense effect Of sub
normal solar temperatures would be
felt only after several years. Accord
ing to the measurements taken by
the Smithsonian Astrophy ysical OBJ
servatory, the suns heat has been
below normal since early 1922. Re-
cent measurements show a rising
tendency. but the solar heat is still
considerably less than the average
for the past eight years. If there IS
a relationship between solar heat va
I1atiOns, ocean temperatures and IN
land weather one would expect a
tendency toward extreme fluctuations
and unseasonably cold spells this
year and next.
The above theory seems reason
able. On the other hand, both farm
ers and business men should clearly
recognize that all scientists do not
agree as to the conclusions reached.
AT a conference on this subject at
Babsor Park last Summer. the CHIEF
Of the United States Weather Bu-
reau took a decided position against
the popular conclusions that lv2e
would be a cold year. Apparently the
best opinions Of the United States
Government support the position of
the Weather Bureau that 1926 Will
be a normal year and that there Is
a good deal of bunk in most OF this
long distance forecasting. The Gov
ernment believes that some day long
distance forecasting will be possible,
but that no method has vet been
worked out by which such fore
casting is now possible. On tne
other hand, Mr.. Browne and his FOL
lowers have been taking an oppo-
site stand and have the support OF
many Of the best private interests IN
the country.
To show how doctors disagree,
have two reports one from Henry
II. Clayton, who is now working with
the Smithsonian Institution. reiat-
ing to solar conditions and weather.
Mr.. Clayton has come to the conciu-
sion that the South is growing cooler,
but that the North is growing
warmer and has no fears as to 1926.
The other report is by the Abbe
Moreux. director Of the Bourges OBJ
servatory in France, who believes
that we will see the shortest sum
mers and the longest Winters dur
ing the next two or three years that
have been witnessed for over a hun
dred years.
The personal observations OF my
own associates lead to the conclusion
that the weather Is apt to be rather
erratic during 1926 and 1927. but we
are just as liable to have exceedingly
hot weather as exceedingly cold. This
is demonstrated by the fact that while
we have been having an exceptionally
cold Spring, England has been having
an exceptionally hot Spring. and
France has had a snowstorm within
What Course to Pursue.
the past month.
Frankly, | do not believe that any
of these forecasts are definite enough
to depend upon absolutely. Without
doubt. there is some truth in the sus'
spot theory, but our record OF the
suns rays is so limited that it is very
difficult at the present time 10 make
forecasts based on the sun spot
theory. Furthermore, the weather in
any definite state or section is deter
mined by the air currents and not by
the suns rays. In other words, even
granting that our country is short
s per cent on suns rays at the presen,
time, certain sections of the country
may yet have the hottest Summer in
their history while other sections may
have the very high maximum and
very low minimum temperatures-that
is, very changeable weather condi-
tions.
My own advice to a business man
is to diversity his merchandise so as
to be affected as little as possible by
the weather conditions. That is to
say, instead Of speculating on either
a cold Summer or q hot Summer,
should try as far as possible to regu-
late my business so as to be as little
dependent as possible on the weather
during the next few years.
Copyright. 1925. Publishers Financial
Bureau.l