Evening star., 1926-03-13
j. S. COTTON CROP
REPORTING LAUDED
c. of C. Agricultural Service
Finds Federal System Only
Feasible One.

By the Associated Press.
Under present conditions the system
employed by the cron reporting board
of the Department of Agriculture in
forecaSting cotton production appears
to be the cnly feasible system for ar
irving at an intelligent conception of
the probable size of the cotton crop,
the Agricultural Service of the Cham
ber of Commerce of the United States
said today in a report appraising the
general subject of cotton forecasts.
THE Agricultural Service reacnas
this conclusion" the report said.
based upon an exhaustive survey C
cotton crop forecasts for the past 10
years, both Government and private.
their effects upon market prices and
the variation from ginning figures.
THE Government forecasts give val
liable information to the cotton trade.
In most instances they probably form
a basis for trading that more nearly
reflects current conditions than would
be possible without them. But at the
same time they do disturb the market
and there should be enough time be
tween forecas SITS to allow the market 10
recover. Evidently this is not posi-
BILE with two forecasts month.
Measure Acreage.
to do is 10 measure the cotton acreage
and its condition of growth as of a
certain date, and to calculate d tigU~-
for the prospective crop on the t9StE
Of the average size of the crop whIsa
similar conditions have produced over
| a series of years.
THE accuracy of the Government
method is demonstrated by the fact
| that the average of it's forecasts for
| a number of years apprOximates
| closely the average of the ginning re-
| turns.
THE Department of Agriculture
has the largest statistical organiza-
| tion of any Of the agencies forecast
| ing the cotton crop. Its forecasts, on
| the average. have been nearer TO ac-
| tual ginning returns than the figure
commonly called the average of. the
private forecasts They have also
been less variable from one time TO
| the next. All the forecasts are sub
| ject TO about the same limitations
The official character of the Govern.
! ment forecasts, the report said.
renders them much more authorita-
| tive than any of the private fore
casts. The Government figures
usually disagree with those of private
forecasting agencies. it added, and
consequently price fluctuations on the
days of their publication are usually
most violent.
Fear of these fluctuations" it
says, SLOWS up the whole cotton
trade for several days preceding the
date Of publication of the forecasts.
On account of possible price declines
or of falling off in the demand for cot
ton for following the release of the
Government reports, many are afraid
to buy.
"The disturbed condition of the
trade has become greatly aggravated
since the institution of the semi
monthly forecasts and criticism of
the forecasts has been correspond
ingly severe. AS a result, a number
Of bills have been introduced in the
present session of Congress providing
for a reduction in the number of re-
ports and for the elimination of the
early season bale forecasts.
Cotton acreage estimates of the
Department of Agriculture are criti-
cised at times. hut for the most part
the trade accepts them. Very seldom
are the preliminary estimates more
/ than 5 per cent off from the final re-
vision