Evening star., 1926-12-05
TTALIAN.FRENCH TENSION
RATED PERIL TO EUROPE
Leaders Believed Against War, But
Chance of Fascist Getting Out OF
Hand Remains Disturbing Factor.

JuRoSlaV1d from the FranCOphlle little
entente or replacing France in the
little entente has not been realized
and a the same time there has been
a distinct cooling Of the atmosphere
I In this quarter
The frontiers Of italy behind Trieste
were drawn with an eye to strategic
rather than linguistic or racial cir
cumstanCes, and as q result some
hundreds of thousands of Slavs have
been included within Italian from
tiers. Here Is the material for the
development Of Slav irredentism and
the arrest of a Slovene deputy to the
Italian Parliament had instant roper
cussions on the other side of the
frontier.
Italy faces. then. a very diff1Cult
situation If she carries her dislike of
France to extremes. She is. In fact,
encircled, and while the French have
not the smallest desire to extend
their frontiers at Italian expense. no
such absence of appetites exists on
the eastern frontiers. A quarrel
with France which led to war could
very easily expose her to wal on
two fronts, and any long continued
policy of hostility to France with re
current p.'ovocations would certainly
lead France to expand her already
considerable basis of agreement with
Belgrade.
German Minority Problem.
There is still another weakness I'm
the Italian situation. The frontier on
the north, like that on the east. Is
strategic, not racial. More than
200 900 Germans lived south of the
crests of the Alps at the end Of the
war, and when the Italian frontier
was carried to the Brenner these be-
came unwilling Italian citizens. 1taly's
policy of seeking to 1talianize this
new territory. too. had led to protest
alike In Vienna and Berlin and was
responsible for a very sharp exchange
of compliments some months ago.
Italy has. then, to fear that any
ultimate union of Austria with Ger
many would give German backing for
the demand for A revision of the
peace treaties to restore BoZen, Meran
and Franzenfeste to Austria. Thus
her way is blocked to an alliance with
Germany by the Tyrolese question.
A similar divergence of interest pre-
cludes any close alliance with the
southern Slavs, while in any quarrel
with the French at a later time she
might have to fear developments on
both her northern and eastern from
tiers, although both are enormously
strong from the defensive point OF
view.
| An alliance with Britain, however,
| Is not easy to foresee. because the
British are concerned with the pres
ervation Of the status quo. They
rea liZe that the Italians resent Brit
ish naval control at Malta; they would
veto Italian occupation of Tunis and
| like the French. they are entirely
satisfied with the preservation of
things as they exist and instinctively
opposed to any change. and even
| more to any disturbance such as
would be bound to accompany effort
| 10 produce change.
Dangers Of Aggression.
1t is true that the British might
welcome Italian activity in the Ae-
gean IL Turkey became intransigeant
in the Iraq and strove to reopen the
debate over Mosul. but an Italian op-
Grafton to conquer Anatolia would be
enormously expensive in men and
money and. while Italy has men. she
lacks money. 1t would he an adven-
ture which would entail tremendous
risks. and II not quickly and sweep
ingly successful. might compromise
the Fascist regime at home.
In the same sense, a war between
Italy and France Is so far beyond the
material resources Of Italy that it
certainly does not figure in the mind
Of Mussolini. The French and Italian
armies are not numerically very diff
ferent. setting the colonial forces Of
France against the more or less or
ganized Fascist militia. as their regu.
lar forces are about equal, but France
has an enormous advantage in ma
terial, artillery in particular. On thu
naval side the strengths are on paper
n fG ~ 6A
MED that Mussolini has brought the
italian navy to a higher pitch of eff
cheney.
But the Alps make military opera
| tions between the two countries al
most impossible. and any struggle
between Mont Blanc and the sea
would almost certainly end In com.
plete stabilization close to the from
tiers. If the French fleet were de-
stroyed, Italy might proceed to invade
North Africa. but even in this rather
remote contingency she would have
TO dispose Of very strong and solid
forces, capable Of being reinforced
from trained native material for a
long time. Moreover. as Italy lacks
coal and iron and would have to i'm
port both In vast quantities to make
war. and as she lacks money for any
such operation, she would he far
worse off than Fra nee. which has vast
iron reserves and can obtain coal from
Germany in unlimited quantities.
Popular Feelings Factor.
Therefore. looked upon from the
point of view of wisdom, an Italian
attack upon France would he at the
least a dangerous risk. and II would
put a strain upon the Fascist regime
which would be excessive. One must
conclude, then. that war could come.
IL at all, only II the Italian national
feeling escaped the control OF the
leaders. which Ia always possible but
always rather unlikely. Yet it is true
that Italian feelings, as measured by
incidents" are still rising, while the
French are becoming daily less pa
tient under the constant provocation
OF disturbances and insults to their
nationals and their representatives
within Italian borders.
The Italian Fascist threat to vio-
late the French frontier near Men.
tone and lay violent hands upon Ital-
ian refugees settled there who are
opposed to Mussolini could easily pre-.
cipitate very nasty situation, for
not only would the French resist but
they are already strengthening their
police forces and. in all human prob
ability, reinforcing their garrisons
1t is also true that this is a very
highly fortified frontier. although the
Notifications antedate the war and
were built at the time when Italian
alliance with Germany forced France
to watch her southeastern frontiers.
There Is at least one considerable fort
between Mentone and Sospel. while
the heights aboye Monte Carlo in
French territory are also fortified
Mont Agel In particular, where there
Is a famous golf course.
Obviously, Mussolini's gravest proh.