Evening star., 1926-10-26
MILLS HAS CHANCE
TO DEFEAT SMITH
Wadsworth Is Likely to Win,
Helped by New York City
Democrats.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
Special Dispatch to The Star


ALBANY, y. Y, October 26.-Rep-
resentatiae Ogden Mills has a better
chance to defeat Gov. Al Smith this
year than anybody has had in years.
And were it not for the extraordinary
past performances Of Gov. Smith-in
fact, If the campaign were to be judg-
ed simply on the basis Of this year
alone-it would not be difficult to pre-
dict the election Of Mr.. Mills.
This summary of the situation is in
conflict with the confidence exhibit ed
by the Democratic leaders. including
the New York governor. But just as
the followers of Jack Dempsey bet
their money on what he had done in
the past, forgetting that time is a
strange transformer of vitality, SO
also in politics may it be said that
Gov. Smith is not the same powerful
candidate that he was in the past.
Several things have contributed to
this state of mind. One is the over
confidence of his own following. The
New York City registration reflects
this indifference by the decrease in
totals. Also Gov. Smith has been in
office so long that many voters feel
a natural inclination to change. The
klan has taken an aggressive position
in certain rural counties.
Smith Weaker Upstate.
Gov. Smith, therefore. is not as
strong outside of New York City as
he was in the past. Heretofore, he
could go to the metropolis with an
even break or a lead and then the
sidewalks Of New York would pile
high the ajority.
Here are some figures, however,
which cannot be regarded as discon-
certing to the Democrats. They were
obtained today at the office of the
secretary of State here. They do not
include 13 counties on which final
figures have not been officially trans
mitted. Only one of the 13 missing,
however, is populous, namely. Monroe.
So the ratio will probably remain the
same when the figures are all re-
ceived.
OF the 62 counties in the Empire
State, 40 this year have a regiStra-
ton Of 3,178,73S, which compares well,
of course, with the 2.845 ,309 of regis
tration in the identical counties in
1922, but rather unfavorably with the
total of 3,411,362 for the same counties
in 1924. Registration always falls
off in an offyear and goes up in
presidential year like 1924. All the
foregoing figures are inclusive Of the
New York counties.
Drop i'm City Registration.
On the face Of it. therefore, it would
seem that Gov Smith, who won in
1922, would win again in 1926. because
he piled up a 1856 900 majority four
years ago. The problem goes deeper
than mere numbers and Is dependent
on distribution. The totals for New
York City in 1922 were 1,185, SIP, as
compared with 1882 ,545 in 1924 and
l 1897 ,161 in 1926 There is a big drop
in the New York City registration
from 1924, when Gov. Smiths ma ajority
was about l0S,000.
Gov. Smith is not as strong in New
York City as he was two years ago.
This time Republicans there feel they
will he aiding him on his march to the
White House ii they vote Democratic
Also in 1924 they did not regard young
Theodore Roosevelt as highly as an
administrator as they did Gov. Smith.
They feel that Ogden Mills would
make a good governor.
The dnfectionS from. the Republican
ranks a 81 the drop-off in the volume
of vote; 'lue to overconfidencc would
seem to indicate that, with a decrease
of about 10000 persons registered in
the New York counties, the loss to
Gov. Smith in his own stronghold
the New York City area-Would be
considerable.
10000 Votes Will Decide.
On the whole. the election will be
decided by about $4,000 votes, which
is q small total to hold the balance of
power in an off year. II Gov. Smith
wins, it Will Ike by the smallest ma
L.. 1,