Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1926-02-20
BY l.. SETH SCHNlTMAN AND
j. w. WILLARD.

Ranking high in the held Of Wash
ington business indicators are the
figures on newspaper advertising
figures will reveal the value Of this
little used indicator Of business. Some
business indexes are ''thermometric"
In nature. e.k., measuring the heat"
OF business at 4 given moment, while
others are decidedly ''barometric. :"
foreshadowins future business wealth
er. and newspaper advertising falls
clearly In the latter class. Advertis-
ing is the tangible evidence Of con-
idence in the immediate future Of
business as expressed BY forward.look
Ing business men. And 1t ID for this
reason, II for none other. that adver-
Using lineages. especially those in
newspapers. afford such a strikingly
accurate forecast of business.
Quick to Detect Trends.
When business Is moving forward
important advertisers are among the
first to read the signs OF recovery and.
In fact. to hasten 1t, by increasing
their advertising budgets. 1t Is to be
noted. however. that in times Of on
coming depression advertising, often
unwisely. Ia one OF the first items OF
overhead to go by the board. Bnsi-
ness Expressions in Washington sre
more often Of a temporary nature and
quite unlike depressions experienced
in other communities. Hence adver-
Using retrenchment. here. usually APP
pears ~ mere levelinK, in contradis-
tinction to actual declines In other To-
calities. This lsvelins Of which men
ton IA made necessarily relates to the
factor Of yearly growth.
Advertising shows striking month
to month fluctuations. a. may ne seen
from the accompanying chart. huctus-
year after year.
Factors In Changes.
II IL natural that this regularity
should appear from year to year since
II In caused prima rily by eccentricities
Of the calendar. Sunday advertising
IL from two to three times as heavy
as daily advertising, hence the pres
ence Of four or Ave Sundays in
given month may radically affect the
monthly totals and the deductions to
he drawn therefrom. The varying
number of days In the month. e.g..
as between February and March. ac
count for further fluctuations. The
occurrence of holidays also affect ad-
vArtisink. some OF which. because Of
the hrmly intrenched habits OF the
people. Christmas buying. for example.
are preceded ny extraordinarily heavy
advertising. To these factors must be
added the effect Of weather itself and
'limstic changes as between the sea
sons
Each year shows roughly two peaks
md TWO depressions. A slight depres-
sion In the Winter is followed by
recovery in the Spring. with the same
respective sequenc. occurring as be.
.ween Summer and Fall.
Seasonal Movements Shown.
The accompa nying chart shows
these seasonal movements for both
newspaper advertising and general
business, which has been plotted on
his chart for comparative purposes.
7, may be noted that the Midsummer
Expressions occur for each curve in
NO same month. namely. August.
March or April II 10 he noted as af-
fecting the Spring peaks for both ad-
vertising and business in general.
These things considered. the refiec-
ton Of general business and the fore.
cast value. afforded by the figures on
newspaper advertising. "a Of striking
,iSnificance. Comparing Advertising
With the dollar volume OF trade chart
81 here az general business. the latter
half Of 1921. so far a. advertising was
Concerned. reflected the increa sed com
mercial activity which had begun to
arrive on the tide Of recurring con-
fdence. Advertising in 1922 trended
slightly downward until early Fall of
that year. although the year as a
whole was larger than the previous