Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1926-03-14
By HAROLD Il. ROGERS.

7 7 Mess the United States
should become involved in
another war or Europe fOl
some reason fail to pay its
combined debt of about
f11.0o0, 900 600. Secretary of the Treas
ury Mellon sees far down the future
a constant and steady decrease in the
Federal tax burden upon the Amerl-
can people.
This may be expected, he believes,
In the face of a constantly growing
population. greater business and con,
sequently increasing demands upon
the central government.
Such a progressive lifting of the
Federal tax load from the shoulders
of the American citizen would he
made possible principally by the de.
crease and eventual eXtinguishment
of the public debt now amounting to
about $50 900 00,0 900.
Question of Time.
There is some question as to how
soc.i more tax reduction may be pos
sis-e. as. according to both President
Cnolidge aud Secretary Mellon, the
f.9w revenue act. which lops off
$ss7, 900, 900 from the tax bill due this
calendar year, will reduce Govern
nent revenues to Il point danger
ously near the amount of estimated
expenditures. 1t was a larger tax
cut Congress made than administra-
ton officials at the other end of
Pennsylvania avenue had estimated
could we'll be borne. Additional leg
sslatton with its attendant cost will
no doubt add materially to expendi.
lures for the early future.
There are also some uncertain
factors, such as the unfunded French
debt of $4,000, 900. 900, the only sizeable
war debt Yet unfunded. and the
Italian debt settlement approved by
the Italian Parliament and our House
or Representatives, but not yet ap-
proved by the United States Senate,
where opposition is raising its head.
There have even been some OBJ
servers, and officials. too, for that
matter, who look with anxious ewes
on the economic condition of Europe
today. wondering whether all debtors
over there will be able to pay their
obligations to this Government, al
though refunded at substantial re-
auction from the original obligations.
Two Major Factors.
But two ma jor factors loom I'D for
She distant future. like beacon lights
Or hope. which. barring unforeseen and
unfortunate Calamity. may operate to
assure lower Federal taxes for the
grandchildren of today's taxpayers.
These factors are, first, the prospec-
tive extinction of the great public
debt. with its enormous charges of in
terest and principal yearly in the
sinking fund. which takes generous
slices now out of each years Federal
budget. and. second. the policies of
economy and efficiency, which, 1t Is
eXnpCte0 will no "a -.,-iod ~, 5o,,-..
years. to hold the Federal machine
to wise and judic!ous expenditures
and effective operation.
detailed forecasting, of course,
would be impossible, but there are ex-
perts. and Secretary Mellon is In.
clined to agree with them, who figure
that the savings to be made through
continued efficiency and economy, and
through eventual elimination of the
public debt, Will more than offset the
anticipated increase in actual running
expenses Of the Federal Government.
Depends on Congress.
Congress. of course, it is pointed
out by some observers. may at any
time step forward and with a few
grand gestures add such expenditures
as may serve to increase Uncle Sans
load on his people to the point where
this future hope may be obliterated.
But II economy, efficiency and the
sinking fund continue to work at the
same high pressure evident since the
war much greater burdens may posi-
bly, be carried by Uncle Sam with
still lower taxes.
Absence Of war would be a. postu.
late for this happy state Of the fu-
ture, however, for. as the Federal
expenditures reveal, a large part Of
the total has gone for wars, past,
present and future. Pension cost for
the World War, some officials esti.
mate, may continue to mount for
some time yet before 1t starts on the
long road downhill Veterans Of the
World War are young comparatively
as yet, and as they grow older and
their widows and orphans begin to
lean more and more on the Govern
ment. 1t has been predicted by OBJ
servers who have studied the past,
grateful Government will in all prob.
ability be called on to increase its
expenses. This may occur in addi-
ton to the general provisions made
in form of insurance and the soldiers
bonus. It has been the history of
pensions in the past. Unless Con-
gress reverses itself the cost Of pen
sions will increase for some time to
come.
The proportion of Government eX-
penditures which are due to war. d.
rectly and Indirectly. have been vari-
ously estimated as to their relative
weight on the shoulders Of the tax
payer.
What War Has Cost.
while 1t Is not possible to segre-
gate entirely all expenditures which
might fall in this category" said Sec
rotary Mellon, If we add to the dis
bursements for public debt retire
nents the interest on the debt. War,
Navy, Veterans Bureau and PEN
ATOMS, other extraordinary expendi-
lures, such as adjusted compensation
and the increased OUTLAWS by the
Treasury, the expenditures which are
directly or indirectly attributable to
war and the national defense COM
pose over 80 per cent Of total Fed
eral expenditures.
1.-THE amounts spent by this Gov
eminent in aid of agriculture and
business. for science. education, bet
ter roads and other constructive
efforts, are insignificant when COM
pared with OUTLAWS due to war and
national defense
Thus the consequences of war. or
the possibilities of q future war,
loom up larger than any other
single factor, or even combination
of other factors, In consideration Of
the problem of future Federal tax
alton.
Local Taxation Worries.
It is the mounting cost of local
taxation by States. counties. cities.
municipalities and not the cost of
the Federal levy. which today is
causing most anxiety In the minds
of those experts and statesmen here
in Washington who have an eye to
ffifnra