Evening star., 1926-06-06
POLAND SEEN IMPERILED
AS NATION BY PILSUDSKI
Weakening of Peace Treaty and Attack
on Boundaries Possible From
Revolt, Says Observer.

QdIlOn. france, weighing ali tnInEs'
has continued to believe the assist
ance Of Polish divisions was more GER
tain than any German guarantee.
Changed In Paris View.
The recent decline in Polish pros
poets, however, has had its effect upon
Paris, and now the Pilsudski affair
comes at the moment when the French
are perhaps least willing to run risks.
Poland under Pilsudski becomes an
obvious liability. There are 10 chances
that France will have to go to war
for Poland to one that Poland will
come to the aid of France. Pilsudski
may mean war, he may mean peace,
but he certainly does mean insecurity
and turmoil. And Poland under Pill
sudski and after Pilsudski Is hardly
likely to be as valuable an ally as II
might have been had the revolution
not come.
Albeady French influence in the
center and east of Europe has been on
the wane. If CZechoslovakia still In
the main follows the French orienta-
ton, Jugoslavia has passed over 10
the italian camp and Rumania has
gone almost as far. The whole sys-
tenn of alliances and associations
which were created by postwar
French diplomacy and reached their
apex under Poincare has dlsinte-
grated, partly because of local condi-
tions. but very considerably because oi
the decline of French power itself as
consequence of the financial troubles
France has still considerable army
and a degree of military prestige re-
sulting from the war, but her IMAM
cial plight is such that all her allies
appreciate the fact that she could
render them little aid in case OF
trouble. for the main aid hoped Tor
was financial. not military. Add the
enormous demands made upon the
French army and treasury by the
Moroccan and Syrian fighting and the
situation becomes clear.
Effect on French Policy.
Nothing is more likely, then, than
that the Pilsudski affair Will prove
the final episode in the dlsintegracon
of the French system OF alliances anu
the death sentence TO the FRANCO
Polish alliance itself. Moreover, suon
a change will have for its nret conse-
ouence a new forward step in Franco
German adjustment. II France SUI
renders her previous purpose to mount
guard on the Vistula and defend her
eastern frontier by the Polish threat
to the eastern marches of Germany
then the last solid barrier to Franco
German appeasement disappears.
do not mean TO suggest tnat
Fra German friendship is a pros
pect for the present generation. IL
viii take a lot of time and much FOR
getting. beyond the capacity or tne
French and German peoples VINO hVen
the war. But there VIII remain not
one solid and tangible cause Tor ois,
pute and conflict. For more tnan o"
years. ever since Germany took Al
ssca.J orraine. France has been the
reaI obstacle to German expansion.
because in any dispute with any otneF
great power, Britain or Russla'
French hostility was assured. Always
abla tn defeat France alone, Germany
vas never able to reach France alone
because France, while unreconclied'
was always peaceful in her policies.
Germany is certainly coming PACK
as great power. She is determiheo
TO win back her lost position. IL Sie
found herself encircled by Frencn ol-
plomacy and unable to expano III a1aS
direction. to restore her eastern IRON
go ~. descend the Danube: If In every
direction the French influence WeHeo
her in. then in the end she woulo De
hound to accept a war with France
a 9 a detail in her resurgence.
Security Aim Of France.
Rut France has no other purpose on
the Vistula or the middle DANUBE ~
prague, Warsaw or Vienna tnah W
assure her own security. She Is hot
seeking territory. not carrying ~
innerialistic aims, but always striVing
for as many allies as poss,oie a -
when Germany attacks. Inc srsateI
her own sense of security, the less
she will care for these eastern a4nes'
and the weaker they become the
greater the danger for her OF esso
cieting her fortunes with them. Ann
her own financial collapse fnakoo II
innossible that she should continue
to give them loans.
SLOWLY but surely French eyes are
openinC to a new danger. On tne
southeast an Italy is rising winch
adopts toward France language "nlcn
is astonishingly bitter. Italy mas
great aspirations. She seeks coIoilieS
and openIv aims at Mediterranean
",,nremacv. Not a few Italians look
TO French North Africa as the lrue
field for Italian expansion. and plan 10
reneat in Tunis and Algeria the tri-
1mphs Of ancient Rome.
AGAINST Italy alone France ts rea
sonably safe, because she has a petter
army and far greater wealth. sne
has also. because of her colonies,
much larger population, although
there are more Italians in italy than
Frenchmen in France. Again, France
can safely count on British support
since Britain has no desire TO see ltaIH
dominate the Mediterranean. But
German-Italian alliance would nave
yery great peril for France, ana such
an alliance might easily come despite
recent chickering's between Rome ana
Rerlin if Franco-German relations
continued bad.
Bar to New Alliance.
Germany will not easily make a
new Italian alliance, because no slngie
postwar sentiment Is stronger m Ger
many than resentment over wo48 Il
regarded as Italian desertion IN 1Si4.
The question Of the Upper Adlge also
rankles Enthusiastically. Indeed. the
recent italian action there may well
be set down to anger over the failure
of Italian efforts to bring. about Ger
man alliance which might menace
France. Germany, too. desires col
onies. and Is thus a rival OF Italy Tor
any mandates which may become
available, while she naturally aims at
restoring her position in the Danupian
area.
In many directions German and
Italian aspirations collide. whte tnsre
is no similar collision between gfSech
and German material anterestA Ger
many. too, as a result Of her deeeak II
very eager to establish sood rslar
tions with Britain ana With both Brit
ish and American finance. Thus hav-
ing to choose between q satisfactory
adjustment with France and a gamble
with Italy, her ultimate decision may
he forecast with reasonable accuracy.
The collapse Of Poland, the coming
of Pilsudski, the general chaos which
is likely to result. give France not
only an excuse but warrant Tor re-