Evening star., 1925-05-25
RUBBER SHORTAGE
IN 1923 DOUBTED
Hoover's Fears Mot Shared
by DeaIers-High Prices
More Alarming.
BY j. c. ROYLE..
Sneclal Dispatch TO The Star


NEW YORK, May 25.-Rubber con-
sumers in America probably will con-
tlnue to say lot about British re-
strlction of production in the Far
East. But despite the voluminous re-
port of the Department of Commerce,
they can do very little about it, At
least that is the opinion of well in
formed rubber dealers here. These
men do not agree with Secretary
Hoover that there is danger of an
acute shortage of rubber by 1925 or
1880
Secretary Hoover. in his fore,vord
to the department report made pub
lie today, declared that the produc-
ing industries of the world will be
much better off in the long run if
combinations in restraint of interna-
tlonal trade We're abandoned on all
sides. But the report SHOWS thHi
from this one source of British
wealth the extra profits due 10 re-
striction will be sufficient to assure
the repayment of Great Britain'S war
debts to the United States.
Policy Likely to Stand.
There is little likelihood, therefore,
that the British government or the
British producers will oblige American
manufacturers to the extent of ttban-
donlng this policy. In fact, it Is Ger
tain that American producers of other
commodities, the supply of which is
controlled in this country, would not
welcome any proposal that they
should allow unrestricted interna-
ttonal trade, although their restrictions
are voluntary instead OF being stipu-
lated and enforced by law.
In addition, the revocation of the re
striCtiou On rubber would be an eX-
-. . L., ttein
government. The restriction is en-
forced by an act passed by the colo
NAL law-making bodies OF the Straits
Settlements. and the British colonial
policy has always been to avoid con
fiict with such regulations by the par.
liaments of the colonies
Booming Home Products.
England is now conducting the
strongest kind of drive for the use
of British products at home ana
abroad The majority of the adVer-
tisements stress the necessity of pat
ronizing home industries, and move
TO abandon a trade advantage at the
request of American competitors GER
tainly would meet with little popular
favor in England.
Rubber men point out that a world
shortage in 1928 or 1880 is unlikely.
They declare that the restriction OF
production has not tended TO cause a
falling off in planting, but that the
high prices obtaining will tend to in
crease the possible production. Plant
ings before the adoption of the Steven
son restriction plan were greatly eX
cessive. That was one of the reasons
the price of rubber dropped to such a
low ebb. Thousands of trees were
coming into the period when they
could be tapped, stocks of rubber were
heavy and production was beyond
world requirements.
Keen Competition Unlikely.
The restriction plan cut down the
amount of rubber produced. but II did
not lessen the trees in reserve. Crude
rubber production undoubtedly could
be speeded up materially at the pres
snt moment by tapping these trees.
It is true that the plantations which
are left uncultivated lapse rapidly
back into the state of jungle, but the
trees remain, and it merely remains
20 clear the area of jungle growth
and tap the trees to bring them into
production.
Secretary Hoover expressed the hope
that competitive production may be
spurred, but rubber men see little
hope in that direction. Rubber un-
tioubtedly will grow In the Philip
pines, but the cheap coolie labor avail
able for British planters is not to be
had there. Its importation undoubt-
edly would be vigorously opposed.
Rubber will grow in Brazil, but there
also wages and labor supply leave the
Straits planters with the advantage.
In any case. it would require at least
six or seven years for new plantations
to come into production, and it would
be long after that before the amount
of rubber Welded could make serious
Impression on the situation.