Belt Valley times. [volume] (Armington, Mont.) 1894-1977, 1925-05-28
Hog Raiser Has
Ups and Downs
Farmers Rarely Hit the Mar
ket Right With Their Sup
ply of Porkers.

hos raiser knows that his business Is
plagued by violent ups and downs that
mean loss to him. and extra expense
to everyone that sells, buys. handles,
stores or consumes pork products. SO
periodic are the movements OF the
hog cycle that economists can fore
cast them with something OF the same
confidence with which astronomers czi-
culate the orbit Of comet or predict
an eclipse.
What the farmer wants to know
about the hog cycle is not so much
how 1t works; be knows that 10 his
cost. He wants TO know what can
be done about It. That is not such
an idle question now as Il might have
seemed few years ago. Studies made
recently by the United States Depart
ment OF Agriculture into the nature
OF hog cycles have brought out the
positive declaration not only that the
cycle can be eliminated. but that II
can be eliminated by the American
hog producer. without the cooperation
of producers In any other part Of the
world
Worth Studying.
On the face OF It proposition like
that should be worth studying. With
hog production swinging 10 fairly
regular alienation from over 20 IN
Reproduction, farmers practically
never hit the market just right with
their hogs. At one stage they have
many hogs 10 sell and make but
small profit or perhaps suffer loss
on them. At another stage they have
but few hogs TO sell. and this Is al
ways when hogs are bringing the high
est prices. Any practical method Of
gaugIng hog production and market
ing in such a way as to level out the
peaks and depressions OF the market
would be as good as q gold mine to
the American farmer.
The possibility OF regulating the
hog cycle, according to economists In
the Department OF Agriculture. lies IN
the fact that this country dominates
the worlds hog market. The United |
States has as many hogs as all Eu-
rope. American hog production con-
tributes nearly two-thirds Of the sup
ply OF hog products entering into in
ternatIonal trade. II therefore dom
mates hog prices even though the mar
ket In which those prices are made
lie worldwide. SteadIer production In
this country. besides eliminating the
wastes inseparable from uneven pro-
duction. would tend to establish the
hog industry on stable basis In
every country where II Is functioning
1n a commercial scale.
Make Industry More Stable.
Economists In the Department OF
Agriculture believe that tile hog In
lustry could be made more stable IL
producers would drop their present
method OF gauging their production
,lans on the basis OF current corn
Ind hog prices. and Instead base their
breeding operations upon the oficiai
outlook statement Issued periodically
. the Department Of Agriculture.
That may look like an invitation 70
peculate. Il is really . proposal that
he speculative element. which is
arge In the hog business anyway.
hould be eliminated as far as possible.
The present alienation OF overpro-
uetiOn and undergraduates In the
0g industry results from the farmers
ractice Of looking at the current mar
ct prices for corn and hogs when
e has to decide how many sows TO
reed. This plan fails to allow for
be time that must pass before the re-
llts OF breeding decisions thus made
III be felt in q larger or smaller move
rent OF hogs to market The number
hogs on the market at any given
me is not adjusted TO the price con-
Itions then existing. because the
mount of the supply was determined
onths previously on the conditions
REVEALING at that time. Here Is where
lie hog cycle starts Boosting pro-
action when prices are at their peak
I'D cutting II down heavily when they !
re low means a hog supply nearly al
avs too large OF too small. since
ice conditions almost invariably =
lange before changes In breeding pol
les have their effect In an increased il
Iessened supply Of hogs.
II the farmer could know what prices
m rule when the hogs from the I.
ws they are breeding will be ready e
r market. they could better adjust
e supply Of hogs TO the demand
hey could diminish the ups and E,
WINS of production that are the bane n
the hog industry. Economists IN
e Department OF Agriculture have
,rked ont method OF forecasfing II
9 prices which has been thoroughly =
sted. and which makes Il possible for
E trend Of the hog market to be
reseen faF enough ahead and with n.
ongh general accuracy TO give the -
rmers better and safer basis for
ugfn& production Than they can
eF get from watching the current ~
Irkefs =
Deem Soil for Orchard