Evening star., 1925-08-23
QUAKE PREDICTIONS
MAY REDUCE HAVOC
'VoIcanoIogist Declares Sci
enCe Will FOretelI Earth
All Disturbances.
BY CARROLL BINDER.


Special Correspondence OF The star and tho
Chicago Laily News Foreign Service.
tIn this third of series of four
researches of Prof Thomas A. Jaeger Of
The Hawaiian volcano observatory Nj
Binder discusses the possibility OF pre-
dieting volcanic eruptions and earth
tremors.D
KILAUEA CRATER, Hawaii.-Is it
possible to anticipate volcanic erup-
tions and earthquakes? How may
their havoc be minimized?
Nocanologists affirm that there are
laws for the earth which may be mas
tered by scientists quite as readily as
the laws of the heavenly bodies have
been ma stored by the astronomers. and
that mastery of those laws will en-
able experts to foreteil where violent
disturbances will be felt. They have
recommendations which, if adopted,
will reduce to i minimum the damage
TO life and property of earthquakes
and volcanoes, they affirm.
Toxic Quake to Recur.
Imperfect as is our information on
earthquakes and volcanoes, such eX-
pertS as the late Prof. Omori of Japan
were able to predict the Chilean earth
quake of nearly two decades ago and
the disturbances which occurred in
Japan. Recurrence of the Toxic earth
quake about 1851 is expected by the
experts.
The recent Santa Barbara earth
quake was predicted more than year
ago by Prof. Andrew {. Lawson of the
University of California. Observations
at California coast stations disclosed
a fault in the earth which had caused
the San Luis Obispo mountains to
move northward 24 feet in the course
of 80 years. Prof. Lawson declared
that there would be an earthquake in
that part of the California coast in
the not distant future, and along
came the Santa Barbara quake.
Some real estate promoters and
town boosters resent predictions of
this kind. holding that il interfereS
with business, but Prof. Jaggar and
his fellow VolCanologists feel that it is
duty to the dwellers in regions sub
ject to earthquakes TO warn them of
what impends. in order that construc-
tion and city planning may take into
account the earthquake risk.
Volcanoes lend themselves to pre-
dictiOn more readily than do earth
quakes. The latter spread over a
whole mountain range, shore line or
sea bottom, and q large number of OBJ
servatories would be required to fore
tell with precision the time and place
of disturbances \ volcanic eruption,
however, comes out of the crater
where it definitely belongs. Surveil-
lance Of that crater will enable the
volcanologist TO foretell the time and
extent of activity.
Coast Survey Makes Study.
Steps are being taken TO study earth
movements more extensively in the
United States, as we'll as other parts
of the world. The United States Coast
and Geodetic Survey has been author
lied by Congress TO begin a thorough
investigation of the causes and effects
of earth vibrations. Colleges and uni
Nersitfes are inaugurating departments
of seismology or enlar%ing facilities
for instruction and investigation in
this field.
The Carnegie Institution, at Wash
ington, is establishing q chain of
rthquake-recordlng stations at Pas
adena, Riverside, La Jolia and other
points in southern California. Instru-
ments designed to record local earth
tremorS will be installed in each of
these stations, which will report to
the controlling station at Pasadena.
Through these records the seismolo-
EistS will be able to focus even the
slightest tremors in a radius of so or
90 miles of the station. AS the rec
ordS VIII be continuous, it will be pos
sible to know exactly where the earth
quake strain is gathering and how il
Is increasing or diminishing from day
10 day or month TO month. The pre-
diction of an earthquake is based on
calculation of geologic strains and the
strength of the earth's crust to resist
them.
Prof. Bailey Willis. president Of the
SeismologiCal Society of America,
hopes that these stations will ulti-
fa,IHv
Oregon. so that the whole seismic
region may be studied minutely. Such
study will provide invaluable informa-
1ion as to earth movements IN addi-
tion to keeping the Pacific coast area
advised as to what to expect in the
way of disturbances
Beyond Individual Means.
No private resources are adequate
TO provide all the observatories neces-
Sary If we are to master the move
ments of the earth, DIR. Jaggar con-
tends. Activities of such organiza-
tionS as the Carnegie Institution and
the Federal Government should be
supplemented by ohservatorieS con
Quoted under the auspices of the vari-
GUS municipalities in the earthquake
regions. Every city should have
seismological observatory to investi-
gate and record earth movements in
its immediate vicinity, just as it in
Nestigates fire, health and other con
ditions affecting the welfare of the
people.
Bearing witness to the coming
earthquake means a cha rtinE and
knowledge of detailed history for the
special region concerned, of habits re-
peated in that region, of the reason
or reasons for those repetitions and
intervals, and of the size and kinship
OF local blocks of the rocky globe
that will determine the size of the
quake" said Prof. Jaggar in his Scrib-
ner article on predicting earthquakes
sSakurajima in Japan. Messina and
Vesuvius in Italy, Kingston in ia
SnaiCa, and other earthquakes of re-
cent years all had counterpartS from
80 to $50 years earlier. which gave
warning that repetition might be
expected. Research is necessary to
read the warning of the earlier Incl
dents.
Observatories maintained by each
of these cities will harness the globe.
Comparison of notes as the indie
pendently financed and managed
astronomical observatories now COM
pare notes will build up pro-
found science. in the opinion of Prof.
Jaggar. But geophysics is still on a
pork chop income compared with as
tronomy, he points out. Mount vii
son Observatory in California has an
annual income of $4,000 10 carry on
fits study of the celestial spheres, while
DIR. Jaggar must study far less ac-
cessible places, from the standpoint
of the observer, with a tenth of that
sum.