Evening star., 1925-03-01
BRITISH ARE JJNDISTURBED
BY EUROPEAN CONDITIONS
See No Imminent Crises and Believe
Nations Are Settling Down Into Third
Phase of Redevelopment.


Belgium, while quite as inevitably
bringing about the liberation of Ger
man territory within the delays fixed
by the treaty of Versailles.
Turning now to Germany, the Brit
ish regard the recovery of the Reich
as already assured. They feel GER
tain that within a brief span of years
Germany will almost automatically
recover her position as the greatest
of the continental states. Quite in
the same way they are satisfied that
while it is conceivable, even likely,
that Germany may accept the western
settlement of Paris, there is not the
smallest chance that she will submit
to the mutilations of the east. They
are convinced, then, that all Ger
many's efforts will be directed toward
the regaining of the lost provinces,
which include Upper Silesia, Dantzig.
the Polish Corridor and perhaps
Posen.
Some Dlsquiet Grows.
And the cardinal point in British
opinion is that it is perfectly useless
to undertake to block this German
purpose. British desire and diplomacy
is rather directed at producing a
situation in which this unacceptable
process may be carried on without
menace to the general peace of Eu-
rope; that in practice there may be
some way found for allowing a peace
full revision of the Paris treaties so
far as the west is concerned. This
inevitably implies that under the in
f1uence of British policy France, to-
day the guarantor of the eastern
settlement in Europe, will withdraw
its support, as it feels assured that
changes in the east will not compro-
mise its position in the west.
British optimism, then, envisages
German acceptance of the historic
frontiers of the west, just as it as
sumes German success in modifying
those in the east. 1t expects Ger
many to regain it's eastern provinces
and, in addition, to find a way to in
clude Austria within it's own from
tiers. Indeed, it expects that Germany
will enter the League of Nations, per-
haps mainly to work for some form
of amendment of the league covenant
which will permit revision of the
treaties in her favor
On the other hand, one must note
that there is present, and even mount
ing, British disquiet as to German
conditions The possibility of some
form of restoration is recognized, but
even this is not so disturbing as the
tone which the Nationalist press and
that the Dawes plan has resulted in
the amelioration of German material
conditions, while the political COM
binations have brought the Nation
alists back into power The British
are unpleasantly conscious of the fact
that once more German nationalism
is speaking IN the tone, adopting the
manner, proclaiming the purposes of
the pre-war time.
Would Oppose Junkers.
If one were to assume that this
tendency continued to deyelop. then
there is every reason to believe that
Britain would take a very definite
line. To put the thing very bluntly.
there is no disposition here to permit
Junker and aggressive Germany to
regain its pre-war strength and work
steadily toward a moment, selected
by itself, to force a new war. I think
one may dismiss as unimportant
British apprehension of the evil con-
sequences of economic competition
of restored, but peaceful Germany.
do not think one can exaggerate the
British determination to forestall
any development of hostile and ag-
gressive Germany.
Actually the British view recalls
the historic words of Horace Greeley
in the reverse direction Go east.
young man." would seem to be the
British admonition. and the British
are anxious that German. excursion
eastward should not be blocked to a
degree which would dam German
energy and result in an ultimate
flood on all frontiers. A new partition
of Poland to the advantage of Ger
many, OF Germany which accepted
western decisions, the British are
prepared to sanction, and hope to
make possible without conflict.
But everything now depends upon
the spirit of Germany in the next few
months. The danger to world peace,
to European safety now seems to
London to threaten, If at ALL from
Germany; there is a feeling that the
evolution of Germany toward peace
or war may We'll be determined within
the next few months. To remove all
incitation to Junker violence. the
British are working to get the whole
matter of the evacuation of the
Rhineland established on a definite
basis. so that the Germans may be
satisfied that this evacuation will fol-
low schedule.
All British conceptions and pur-
poses are now, obviously, at the
mercy of any sudden explosion in
Germany or of any slower but only
-SSS SbFAooS otNSlOpMenC OF Ter
many toward belligerent purposes.
And under the surface you feel a
very marked British intention TO
leave Germany with no such uncer-
| tainty as to British action in such a
crisis, as so dreadfully and perhaps
fatally compromised the situation in
July, 1914.
Disturbed BY Russia.
Looking now to Russia, again one
feels the British view to be that the
various territorial settlements of
Paris were absurd. Russia, despite
election hysteria, does not appear a
danger. On the other hand, there Is
the universal expectation that within
time, the extent of which cannot
perhaps be fixed, Russia will again
reappear as a great power, and when
she appears she will not for a mo-
ment accept the decision of Paris
which deprived her of her Baltic
facade and of all her acquisitions in
western Europe.
Thus, again, the British look with
positive horror upon the proposed
commitments of the protocol, which
would involve all western Europe
| and specifically France and Britain
in a. contract to defend the smaller
| Baltic states against Russia, as it
would obligate them to defend Poland
against Germany.
That such a position would insure
a Russo German alliance against the
west the British feel inevitable, but
| such an alliance would mean war and
terrific war. 1t would also almost GER
| tainly bring Japan to the Russo Ger
man side and carry the conflict into
Asia, where Britain is most vulner-
! able and most sensitive. And from
| this possibility British opinion in
| stinctively shrinks.
Believe Recovery Sure.