Evening star., 1925-11-15

and took 1t completely by
surprise. So absolute was the sur
prise that 1t was literally true that
the guns were going off before there
was real appreciation Of the hope
less gravity Of the pre-war crisis.
A little more than four years later,
the collapse Of German military power
and the consequent surrender of the
Central Powers came with such un-
expected suddenness that again the
world was taken by surprise and the
victorious nations, whose efforts had
been so lately concentrated on the
desperate effort to avoid the defeats
which were threatened by the victories
in the opening phases of the campaign
OF 1918. were totally unprepared to
arrange the settlement which was
necessary.
Now. unless every sign falls we are
on tho edge Of a new surprise. While
our attention is still concentrated upon
the disputes over the Locarno Pact
IN the German Reichstag, while the
long succession of disappointments of
the terrible postwar years has led us
to accept the conception Of disor-
ganized. quarreliing and chaotic Eu-
rope. the fact is that a change az
far reaching as that Of October. 1918,
or OF July. 1914, is at hand.
Witness the Resolve.
The outstanding fact in the Euro
pean situation today is that the deter
mination of the masses of the ma
tons. OF the people. of the business
interests. Of every influential element
10 arrive at a final adjustment Of those
difficulties which bar the way to the
resumption Of normal life, Of ordinary
intercourse. constitutes an inescap pable
imperative to the statesmen. politi-
clans and political parties.
The documents which were initialled
at Locarno and will presently be rati,
ned by every government and parlia-
ment do not represent the material
out OF which peace is to be made.
they witness the fact that the nations
concerned are resolved to make peace
We are. IN my Judgment, on the eve
OF very long period Of peace In
Europe. peace so far as the great
powers are concerned. not because
guarantee treaties were made at Lo-
carno, but because there exists In
Europe a state of mind. Of which
Locarno is but one and not necessarily
the most important manifestation.
When the formal ratifications Of the
Locarno pacts take place-and If there
are delays and maneuvres in the
domestic politics of any countries
notably Germany, these will neither
long postpone nor materially interfere
with the att6catien-nothing is more
certain than that we-shall see swift
and far-reaching disclosures of the
consequences of the arrival OF Europe
at what must be regarded as a rational
and normal state of mind.
On Eve OF New Fra.
We are. of this 1t seems to me there
can be no question. on the eve of a
new period in European history, new
period when one thinks Of the quar-
ter OF a century which has flowed
past since the death Of Queen Victoria
closed one age and ushered in another.
Not merely in the four years of war
or the seven years OF chaos which
have followed the actual fighting, but
for full quarter of a Gentry, Europe
has been engaged in a civil war, II has
been engaged in destroying the basis
not alone OF its power abroad but
OF its very existence at home.
AS a consequence Of this quarter Of
a century of international anarchy,
Europe finds itself today in a position
hardly paralleled in all history. Col
lectiyely, Europe has lost to the
United States, to America. primac cy
in the economic and financial world
1t has not alone lost its own predomi-
nance but It has mortgaged its future
20 America. Not only do all countries
owe vast sums either through govern
mental or private borrowings, but
access to new loans Is a necessity for
practically every country.
In addition, while the economic and
financial domination has passed from
Europe, another transformation has
taken place of hardly less grave sig
nificance. The relation Of Asia and
Africa, as well as Of the United States.
20 Europe has been profoundly modi-
fed. China, India, Irac, Syria and
Turkey have given unmistakabie evil
dence Of the decline OF European
prestige and the determination of the
Chinese, the races Of India. the Arabs
and the Turks to escape from Euro
other to assert not alone equality but
independence.
African Independence.
The same phenomenon is disclosed
at both ends of North Africa. in Egypt
where q British protectorate has had
to be abandoned, in Morocco where
France and Spain are engaged in a
desperate battle with the Riffians
mistakably changed their relation with
respect Of Europe. Twenty-Five years
of conflict within Europe. which Incl
dentally involved bringing Africa and
Asiatic as we'll as American troops to
Europe, have established America in
positions which Europe has long held
in the world and undermined the
whole foundation of European political
influence and power abroad.
A citizen Of Europe, If one can
imagine such an individual, who, fol-
lowing the example Of Rip Van Wrinkle,
had fallen into slumber in the closing
days Of Queen Victoria, with the mem
cries Of the Diamond Jubilee fresh in
mind. who recalled vividly the preced,
ing years which had seen the enor-
nous expansion Of European power
and influence abroad, the conques
and partition of Africa, the founding
Of control in Asia, for whom the United
States was only a dim and distant
state, vaguely rising from the status
Of a former European colony, might
easily find it impossible to identify
any old landmarks in the New World.
In all the rivalries and conflicts
with their succeeding miseries Europe
has manifestly lost sight of the broader
perspectives. While the great power
abroad was being dissipated, European
attention was concentrated upon the
narrower fields in which for the mo-
mont It seemed not improbable that
the domestic basis Of existence would
be destroyed. In Germany, in Britain,
in Italy very real struggles have had
to be carried on to save domestic
order. The whole capitalistic civiliza.
ton has been quite as clearly i'm
periled as the edifice of imperial
dou1ina ton abroad
We who have watched day by day
the unfolding of this tremendous
drama have been inevitably lost In
the maze Of cotemporary circum-
stances and unable to perceive the