Evening star., 1925-12-13
CUT In EUROPEAN ARMIES
BESET BY MANY OBSTACLES
Political Circumstances That Show No
Sign of Early Change May Forestall .
Far-Reaching Adjustment.

is likely presently to be equally
strong and now numbers nearly 2sh
900. a similar disproportion exists
between the German army and the
British colonial and home forces
combined.
In any conference, Germany is
bound TO come forward with the de
mand that the standing armies OF
Britain and France. both inferior IN
population to Germany, should be re
duced to the German level, or even
that on the basis of population they
should be reduced below the strength
fixed for German armies by the treat
of Versailles. But, even II she WOW
on tho issue of eql~ity as to Eu
ropean strength, Sb would still Re
hopelessly outclassed. Yy reason Of the
fact that having II. colonies and no
colonial army, she would have moth
ing to counterbalance the French and
British colonial establishments.
Then, In practice, the German de
mand will have to be shifted TO a re-
quest to be permitted to increase Ger.
man forces to something like equality
with the British and the French, TAX
ing cognizanCe Of the colonial estab-
lishments OF both. But II this ques
| ton should arise, then We should see
a. conference to limit arnaments
actually become one to regulate IN
creaSeS. Italy, too. with insignificant
colonial establishments and small na-
tive populations. capable Of supplying
nanpoWer, must take the German
view.
Russian Factor Large.
Looking now to the third factor
! the Russian element, II is clear that
Rumania and Poland, bordering Rus
! sia and always menaced by Russian
| hostility. will not consider the reduc-
| ton of their armies below the point
! deemed essential TO their own defense.
! save as they have clear evidence that
! Russia will similarly reduce her
! armies and at the same time abandon
/ her hostility to the west. Limitation
of arTnaments for both countries is
contingent, in reality, upon the en-
trance of Russia into the circle O
western countries and the Completc
remuneration Of her present policies
| toward capitalistic nations.
Nevertheless, assuming, as one
must, that the course Of Poland IL
maintaining 900. 900 troops in arms as
protection against possible Russian at
tack with forces at least twice as
great IS not only natural. but II
evitable. Il is essential to perceive thai
! the presence Of 500. 900 Polish troops
under arms has q very direct effect
upon the German people, who have
! but 100, 900 and regard Poland as 81
enemy.
| Exactly the Samc situation exists
with respect of Rumania, which holds
go. 600 troops always with the colors.
| chiefly because OF the Russian prob
| lem. But Bulgaria ana Hungary. re
! garding Rumania as Il prospective
enemy, ore hardly likely to consent
to permanent limitation of their own
strength to totals which leave them
hopeless to oppose Rumania either il
| peace or war.
Consequences Exaggerated.
| Thus. 1t must be patent that there
| has been a great deal OF eXaggera
| consequences Of LoCarno, so far as
disarmament is concerned. One MAY
assume that France no longer has any
real apprehension of German attack
! thanks to British guarantees and Cier.
man pledges. The best proof of this
lies in the fact that the reduction
in length Of service IS being trans
the fighting in Morocco and Syria
precludes any reduction OF the
colonial establishment, SO that when
the one-year term becomes effective
the total military establishment o.
France Will be 500. 900, against the 100.
600 allowed Germany, while the Bri,
ish establishment cannot hc reduced
ALIuNIi btlO" the SlIIllLII ISOTtS.
Assuming-and it is really a foolish
assumption-that Germany nigh
permanently agree 10 such a status
with respect to France and Britain
III view Of recent treaties which IN
sure her security in the west, there
remains the fact that Germany, Wit
| over 60, 100000 inhabitants. would sec
herself with but 100, 900 soldiers, raised
under the voluntary system, facing
| liCl, of9 ~.
scription.
One must too, emphasize the in
equality incident to the voluntary sys-
tenn. France and Poland, with con
Scriptfon, are training all their man
power. Back of a standing army OF
100000 Poland has at least 900, 900
trained reserves while France has
more than 1900, 900. But Germany
when her pre-war trained masses have
| become too old to serve, since con
Scription il forbidden her. will have
! only her 100000 standing army and q
small number of men who have serve,
I for the period of enlistment with the
! new army. Assuming, then. that Ger
many should permanently live up 10
| the armament sections of the treaty
| of Versailles, she would always con
/ tinua a diSarned state In the midst
! of an armed Europe, just S long as
| her neighhors employed Conscription
VIII Regain Freedom.
In practice, of course, this will not
endure. In due course of time Ger
| many will recover her full freedom
! 1t is going TO be impossible TO i'm
| pose disarmament upon her, as 1t has
| proven impossible TO impose all sorts
of similar restrictions upon France
when other alliances have conquered
| the French. What actually exists iq
| the problem as 10 whether Europe IL
going to dtSarm down to German levels
or Germany is going presently TO re
| arm up to the level of her neighborS
Or. to put the thing specifically either
| Germany'S nefghbors will have TO
| abandon conScription or Germany Will
! in the end readopt it and no one Will
be able TO prevent it.
| 1t Is fair, I think. to go further
and say that all real limitation OF
armaments in Europe awaits some col
! lect1ve agreement TO abandon con
scription. But no such agreement is
possible until Russia ceases to be
menace to the border states, until
Russia returns to the concert Of Eu-
| rope and thus restores the condition
which existed substantially at the
close of the last century and before
the complete division of Europe into
rival alliances.
German Intention Clear
| Meantime. Germany is going 10
/ Geneva and say. in effect: Look here.
| 7 was diSar1ned on the assumption
that ~ neace there was to be Gcn-
eral disarmament. But in practice.
while l am still disarmed, every one
| else is armed. Sixty five million Ger
mans are at the mercy of 30,0o0.000
| Poles or less than half as many
/ Czechoslovaks Even Belgium has q