davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Law of Averages
And Bridge Hands

no the Editor of The Star:
Your interesting editorial in The
Sunday Star, entitled THE Perfect
Bridge Hand" has come to my atten-
ton. The calculation of the chance
of such a hand being dealt has long
been IL fairly well known problem in
the calculus of probabilities. and the
solution will be found in any one of
several books on the subject; the So
luton of several similar problems, one
by the present writer, will be found in
the American Mathematical Monthly
for May-June, 1923.
Speaking little more accurately
than the editorial, there is one chance
in 635 .013, ,559 500 for a perfect hand;
the chance of four perfect hands being
dealt simultaneously is, contrary to
the statement in the editorial, also
easy to determine, being roughly one
in 16.777,216 followed by 40 ciphers.
The actual occurrence of a perfect
hand twice in such a short period of
time does not, however. invalldate the
So-calied law OF averages. The
claw of averages" is deceiVing merely
because it's true meaning is frequently
misunderstood. The theory of prob
abilities is utterly powerless to pre-
dict what will happen in any one in
dividual case; and the law of aver
ages" is meaningless when applied to
only few cases; but nothing is more
certain when large numbers of cases
are involved. on the average, or in
the long run, out of " large number
of cases. the laws of probability are
always verified with uncanny accu-
r2cy out of a relatively small num-
ber of cases, they may be very far
indeed from the truth. Now where the
chance of an event is so extremely
small as that of a perfect bridge hand,
tremendous number of individual
cases-say, in this instance. about
q thousand times six hundred billion -
would be required before the law of
averages" would begin to hold with
accuracy. Moreover, an actual occur
renee of the event is without influence
on the chance of its occurrence in any
subsequent trial; and just because the
chance of an event is small does not
mean that ii may not occur at any
moment.
/ The entire insurance business is
founded on the theory of probability,
and-barring such exceptional dis
turblng factors as the great influenza
epidemic-there is no business more
certain and solid; but an insurance
company would soon cease to operate
if it depended on only a few dozen
polfcyholders. for then the "Iaw of
averages" would not apply at all The
bonding companies can tell, out of
many thousands Of individuals. how
many are going to turn dishonest next
year, but no one can say anythine,
about one given person.
EDGAR w. WOOLARD.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
The Tied-Up Ships Problem.

Inc problem or the laid-up mer-
chant vessels owned by the United
States on which the limelight has
been turned by Henry Ford's offer to
buy 400 of these idle ships, chiefly for
"scrapping,' is one that must be han
died sooner or later. The Shipping
Board has never yet been able to
reach a decision in regard to these
ships, nearly 800 in number, it now
appears, so far as permitting sale for
scrapping. Judging from statements
emanating from various members of
the board, that body is likely to split
vigorously over the proposal
There are many of the laid-up ships
which should be retained by the Gov
ernment, if they cannot be sold ad-
vantageously for operation under the
American flag. They will be needed
for requirements of the vessels now
being used in the many services main
tained by the Shipping Board and its
agents. Some of them will be inn
proved by the installation of Diesel
engines; they must be retained as a
reserve for both commercial and ma
tiOnal defense needs But there are
many others which in all probability
will never be used for any purpose.
Those are the vessels which should be
disposed of for scrapping if they can
not be used for anything else.
While the Presidents committee. so
called. was studying the merchant
marine problem last year to make
recommendations to President Cool
idge, the question of the laid-up feet
was considered. Figures and statis-
that about 500 of the laid-up ships.
cargo vessels. would not be required
either for national defense or for
commerce. Two courses suggested
themselves to the investigators with
regard to these ships One was their
sale, if possible. for operation abroad
under foreign flags. The merchant
marine act permits such sales, pro
vided five of the members of the Ship
ping Board agree to them The
Otiltl was " SCH klIc SHIPS lOI scrap
ping.
If the ships are sold for foreign ac-
count. they could scarcely be regarded
as increasing competition for the
American merchant marine, since they
are not suitable for the services main
tanned by the United States. Such
sales would bring in more money to
the Government than sales for scrap
ping only.
The laid-up merchant fleet is a re-
proach to the American merchant
marine; it is an eyesore; it casts a re-
Election on the shipping business of
the United States. These gaunt.
ghostlike vessels, rusting and deteri-
Grating in our rivers and harbors,
seem to declare that Americas entry
into the overseas shipping business
has been an absolute failure AS a
matter of fact, with 800 ships sailing
to all the corners of the world, carry
ing a very considerable share of the
commerce of the United States. the
Shipping Board vessels are today Civ.
ing a very good account of them
selves. But as long as these surplus
vessels are left to lie and rot, the pic
ture of failure remains
Evening star., 1925-05-15
The ODium Complex.

To take the opium question out Of
the complex of international politics
and relegate it to a question of manu-
featuring would be an act classify wing
the doer as a benefactor of mankind
The recent failure of international con-
ferences to limit the production of
opium leaves it still an issue of inter
national politics. 1t is declared that
Great Britain would provoke a revolu-
tion in India if the growing of the
poppy should be prohibited. Great
agricultural and commercial interests
would he seriously affected. and these
interests now overtop the moral ques
ton of the use of opium.
1t has fallen to an American citizen
to take the first step in the direction
Of the synthetic production of opium
to supplant the poppy. Herman A
Metz, former controller of the City of
New York has announced the offer of
a prize of 100000 to the first man
10 invent d process for producing
synthetic opium at a price low enough
to wipe out the poppy growing indus
tries of India and China
\ condition of the offer is that the
successful inventor should give up his
rights to the process and permit its
general manufacture under conditions
tC be laid down by international agree
ment. That would result N vast areas
of land now used for growing poppies
being released for other agricultural
purposes without Geteriorating their
value. II would also render easier the
Dertece.-,-- of international agreements
TO control the opium trade The evils
of the use of opium are generally ad-
mtted but at present the dollar out
weighs the moral question. a gleam
of hope is visualized in the plan pro-
posed by Mr.. Metz of a relief from the
opium evil for which the civilized
world clamors.
Somewhere in the world there must
be a chemist whose mind can evolve a
PROCESS of synthetic manufacture. Ger
tainly the offer of prize of 800, 900
is calculated to make the chemists of
the world put on their thinking caps
not only TO capture this award but
cpllf6IEa lasting benefit upon mankind
Evening star., 1925-05-15

TO place in the streets as the handlers
of dangerous vehicles and complicated
machines.
Checking up on applicants for per-
mits to drive should not stop with the
newcomers in the traffic field, but
should be carried back as far as pos
sible through the lists of those already
licensed. 1t will probably be found
that many people are driving cars who
have never been actually identified
and who. in the case of an accident
traceable through license number and
recorded place Cf residence, may not
be found to answer for their fault.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Health Greatest Aid.

Health plays a great part in the
lives of successful men,"
This statement was made by Rich
ard Washburn Child. former Ambas-
sador to Italy, in an address at St.
Louis, in which Mr.. Child told of the
great men he had known intimately.
There is nothing new in what Mr.
Child said. Health workers have been
saying it over and over, preaching it
daily in every State in the Union
teaching it in the schools and re-
minding the people of it through the
newspapers.
And yet it cannot be told too often.
Thousands of men have failed, just at
the time when success was almost in
their grasp because their health failed
and they were unable to continue their
physical climb to the top. To have
what MIR. Child calls the clear mind
to carry him over the line" a man
must have a sound body.-Little Rock
Arkansas Democrat.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Rider Haggard.

N the death of Sir II. Rider Hsg-
gard the world loses an author whose
long shelf-ful Of published works,
largely fiction, combined all the thrills
of a dime novel series, only infinitely
better told, with the romance, idealism
and historical background of the
chroniclers and poets of the Middle
Ages.
How many boys, and men too, have
read with bated breath of the deeds of
and Of Umslopogaas, black and just
Evening star., 1925-05-15
SHOOTING STARS.
BY .PHILANDER JOHNSON.
Perspective.

We read of epic glories
Back in the years remote
And marvel at the stories
That poets bravely wrote.
We stand in deep detection
Recalling battles fought
Within our recollection
And shudder at the thought.
The stricken hearts and lonely
Are sad because they know
That war is splendid only
In tales of long ago.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

The operations of the United
States Coast Guard against the rum
fleet off the Atlantic coast holds the
attention of the country, and the at
tempt of rum row TO defy the author
ity of the Government is universally
condemned without reference to the
merits or demerits of prohibition. AS
expressed by the Boston Transcript,
Sinister tlouting of our laws by for
eign crews at the very door of our
principal seaport is a spectacle not to
be regarded with equanimity by good
citizens"
There is no denial of the difficulty
confronting the Government forces.
The Omaha World Herald points to
the fact that the coast line of the
United States is long one, with in
Vulnerable spots favorable to snug
Cling operations" and observes that
if the dry navy succeeds in perma-
nenty driving away the rum fleet 1t
will have accomplished something"
The importance of the present eff
fort by the Government is empha-
sized by the Spokane Chronicle. IF
successful in this attempt" states
the Chronicle, prohibition enforce
, ment officers will have removed one
of the biggest menaces and will have
laid the foundation for the task of en-
tirely cutting off the supply of boot
siders the prospect good that ''the
rum runner may ask some one TO
ship him east of Suez."
X X
"The effectiveness of the blockade"
notes the Brooklyn Eagle, is attested
/ by the rise in the price of bootleg
Scotch. The Canadians are reported
| as indignant at the 'shoot-to-kill or
| der. claiming it violates the one
| hour s-steaming treaty with Great
| Britain. Against their contention
| that transporting liquor is not illegal
under the British flag must be ar
! rayed the fact that smuggling is il
| legal along all coasts. The British
shot to kill when ferreting out eX-
! cise-tax evaders and rum runners
along their own coasts"
The Chicago Daily News believes
! that "the business of smuggling liquor
some aspects for the smugglers."
| The News adds that "the insolent
denizens of rum row ought to be ef-
fectively prevented from peddling
booze openly to all comers within easy
reach of the American coast"
Referring to critics who have pro-
| tested the cost of the expedition, the
| indianapolis News says: The feel
| ing grows that the expedition will be
! worth all it costs, If it convinces the
scoff1aws that disobedience to law is
improbable and bad citizenship. The
| men whose ships are on rum row are
outlaws" The Charlotte Observer,
! also taking notice of rum rows de-
Evening star., 1925-05-15

and later was first secretary Of the
Austrian delegation at the peace con
ference OF St. Germain. He was sent
10 washington in 1920, before we made
peace with Austria and Hungary TO
Hquldate the affairs of the old EN-.
bassy Of the dual monarchy. and
served as charge d'affaires until ac-
credited as Minister a few davs ago
Inc Prochniks have acquired a high
position IN the Washington official
world. The Minister is still a young
man and a very tall one.
+ X
William G. McAdoo is heading Ea,t
again and is one of the lions of the
clans gathering for the Kentucky
Derby at Churchill Downs tomorrow
One of his closest friends in Wash
ington. Rear Admiral Cary T. Grav-
son, has Joined the McAdoo partv in
Louisville. "W. G." is availing him.
self of the opportunity to glad.hand
Blue Grass Democrats, who have al
ways been fond of him, and after
tl~ Derby he will go to Frankfort
TO pay his respects to Gov William
j. Fields; One of the McAdoo high
command. Jouett Shouse. who has y
dual allegiance to Kentucky and
Kansas, is among the faithful who
highly resolve that the McAdoo star
shall yet be in the ascendant.
4 = x =
Simon Michelet. president of the
National Get-Out-the-Vote Club. saws
that the recent German presidential
election IS a disconcerting lesson to
the United States. 1T is not cause for
congratulation in this republic" de-
clares Mr.. MicheIet. that IL. 600 O0O
people cast fewer votes for President
1ne highest office in the Nation than
an Old World country having a NOM.
lation of possibly 65,000.O0O. 1t shows
Americans that, though they NAV
boast supremacy in most fields of
human activity, they are not as ma.
trloticaliy jealous in the national cause
of electing President as Germany
which for centuries has lived under an
imperial monarchy.
Michelet adds that il is over An
years since as much as so per cent of
American voters went to the noJIs
and voted for President. The nor.
centage has been steadily declinino
since 1880. In the Hindenburg-Mary
election on April 26, 81 600 900 Ger.
mans, or about so per cent of the
qualified electorate, voted. In the
Coolidge-Davis-La Toilette election in
November, 1924, only 53.7 per cent of
4
of suffrage.
X X X
Edward Vail prominent mer.
chant of Wichita. kans., called at the
White House this week to thank the
President for appointing him on the
annual board of visitors to the Naval
Academy. He has served twice in
, that honorable capacity Western
members of Congress who are instrI
mental in securing these appoint
ments for constituents are asked
scores of times to recommend candi.
dates for West Point. where they
| are asked only once to recommend
aspirants for Annapolis. This indi.
Gates that the Army is more popular
in the West. where so many of its
traditions are rooted, than the Navy
which is a stranger to most plains
men. So when Senators from the
open spaces are asked to have lead
ing citizens appointed official visitors
to Annapolis, they rejoice at such
opportunities to give the Navy an
advertisement in parts where it is
little known.
Copyright, 19:5.)
Evening star., 1925-05-15
-e~N~<

England is on a gold basis, and raises
no question as to debt payment John
Bull has always proceeded on the
theory that the punctilious preserva-
tion of a nations credit represented
not only good morals but wise public
policy.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
- ~

Painters and paperhangers have end
ed their strike. The tenant who wants
the fiat redecorated will now have a
harder argument with the landlord
than ever, in spite of the fact that
eventually he foots all the bills.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Obsolete Traffic

Would you think of such a thing
as buying votes.'
Certainly not" answered Senator
Sorghum. "Out my way they've got
politics so systematized that there
aren't any more for sale"
Evening star., 1925-05-15
he Evening Star Newspaper Company
Rate by Mail-PayabIe in Advance.
Maryland and Virginia.
All Other States.
Member of the Associated Press.

The Associated Press is exclusively entitled
to the use for republication of all news dis
patches credited to II or not otherwise cred
tied III this paper and also the local news
published herein. All rights of publication
of special dispatches herein are also reserved.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

As an editor and publisher Ben
Franklin is admiringly referred to in
Philadelphia as the Cyrus Curtis of
his time.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
.-A~NS

Having crowded the land with mo-
tors, Henry Ford turns his attention
to ships and airplanes. with a view to
filling the ocean and the sky.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
s-@NN&

When any serious condition arises
Henry Ford is appealed to. He is ex-
pected to solve almost every problem
except the parking problem. for which
he is chiefly responsible.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

Many people in this country would
be perfectly willing to let Sir Thomas
Upton win the Americas cup, if he
We're not too good u sportsman to
profit by any conceded advantage.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
The Pleasure of Disapproyal.

Did you enjoy the theater?"
That is not fair question" re-
piled Miss Cayenne. "The play was
one of the kind that everybody attends
for the sake of seeing what makes it
so shocking"
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Sorrows of the Artist.

Grief is assuaged-although of course,
A broken home is sad,
At least she knows with each divorce
She gets another ad
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Educational Paradox.

We seek educational care
And yet with its methods we quar-
rel.
Col. Bryan is here to declare
That Science is highly immoral,
Evening star., 1925-05-15

Jud Tunkins says he wishes he could
get in a circus parade and ride down
the street without risk of trouble with
q traffic cop.
Evening star., 1925-05-15
Blockade of Rum Fleet
Holds Attention of L. S.

fiance and threats of meeting armed
force with armed force. remarks: I'm
other words, the violators of the pro-
hibition laws at sea propose to con-
tinue in the unlawful traffic if they
have to shoot at the American flag.
This flag has been both insulted and
fired upon, and the warlike attitude
developed on the part of the rum
fleet puts 1t beyond the pale of de-
fenSe. The whisky fleet has been
moved to action in desperation which
can mean only its determination
Now that the Government has un-
dertaken this thing with armed forces
at sea, it must fight it out" in the
opinion of the Springfield, tMass1
Union. In this connection the Pitts
burgh Chronicle-Telegraph is satisfied
the Government at last is prepared for
the job. THE enforcement officials
have long beer sorely Handicapped
by lack of proper vessels with which
to combat the lawbreakers' activities" D."
says the Pittsburgh paper. "They have
not had enough craft of the right
kind. Now those whose duty it is to
enforce the law can say, in the words
of the old Jingo song, We've got the
men, we've got the ships, we've got
the money too"
1.-THE country at large" observes
the Duluth Herald "will watch this
battle with mingled emotions that
will depend on the viewpoint Of the
observers. The bootleggers, who wait
to deliver these Illicit cargoes to their
customers won't enjoy it, nor, perhaps.
will their customers. The foreign folks
who have been getting rich swiftly will
not like ii. But the great majority
will enjoy it and applaud it" Reports
that the liquor supply in Eastern cities
is diminishing rapidly are quoted by
the Roanoke Times, which comments:
'"The game is q daring one and the
stakes are high. The next move will
be awaited with interest" A curious
feature of the affair is noted by the
New York Times, which says that
probably this is the first time in his
tory that a fleet is engaged Ia block
aiding another fleet in the open sea.
X X
The Louisville Courier-Jourr7aI suGs~
gests that sit is big order that the
Government has taken on, one that
will cost millions of dollars in single
Summer, and to be effective it must
be more than a periodic display of
force" The San Antonio Express also
comedies that 1T is no one-sided per-
formance.
Rum row is the most f1agrant de-
hance of constituted authority Ameri-
ca has ever Witnessed, declares the
Harrisburg Telegraph, and the Ashe-
vile Times Is sure 1t is unthinkable
that there can be other than one out
come. mo effort should be spared to
scatter the fleet to the four winda,''
concludes the Ann Arbor Tfmes-Newr.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

"Dar's one thing in favor of de
mule said Uncle Eben. "If he takes
notion to balk dar ain gineter be no
argument bout parkin space"
Evening star., 1925-05-15

A coreless apple is progress. but If
Is gong to mean a lot Of homeless
worms.-Detroit News.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

Senators enjoy most of the talking
privileges. but it looks as if they were
going to find Vice President Dawes a
hard audience
Evening star., 1925-05-15

@. What will remove finger prints
around door knobs without making the
paint thin?-H. 5.
A. Dip a damp cloth in whiting and
rub gently over the smeared places.
Rinse with clear water.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

fHGUe yOu a question pou rant an
slceredP Send to The star Informd-
ton Bureau, Frederic j. RGSkin, direc-
tor, Tlcenty-1irSt and c streets north
,CeSt. The only charge for this service
is 2 cents in stamps for return post
Evening star., 1925-05-15

q. Are there seasons when the hair
grows faster?-J. r. NJ.
a. Hair grows faster during warm
weather than during cold, and faster
by day than by night.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

G. What was Admiral Farragut's $
flagship during the Civil War
Evening star., 1925-05-15

n. NJ. i
A. Admiral Farragut was in com
mand of the flagship Hartford. With
him were the Brooklyn, Richmond,
Pensacola, Mississippi. Oneida, Var
una Iroquois and a number Of gun
boats.
Evening star., 1925-05-15

Q. Please give the names of the
English dynasties.-T. S. T.
"A. Beginning with King Egbert.
the Saxons and Danes ruled until the
time of William l. who founded the
House of Normandy. The other dy-
nasties are the houses of Plantagenet.
Lancaster. Tudor. Stuart. Hanover
Evening star., 1925-05-15

Q. At Danville. Ky. is an old "capi-
tol building" What is its history?
N. E. 4.
A Danville was the first seat Of
civil government west of the ALE
ghcny Mountains. The region was
then called Northwest Territory. The
building to which you refer served
as the government headquarters after
the original "commodious log struC-
ture' was outgrOwn.
Evening star., 1925-03-21
Observation-Disclosures
THE PORINER
18th AND V SITS. NV.


A few and 9 large room apartments. eL-
cetient condition, 24-hour service. Rent. $40
up. Tel. N. 1927. '.,..
A. 0. BLISS PROPERTIES.
:. ASTORIA. Sd d G SITS. NV.
Apt No. 4l-l room, gas included =. ..S25.oo
FESTOSA. LIST & b SITS. NV.
Apt No. 48-2 rooms, kitchenette and -
Al b ST. NV. '.4..
Apt No. Ill room. alcoye. kitchenette
aHu oatn DO soU
Apt. No. Al room. alcove. kitchenette . ~
RAYMOND, si4 22nd St NV.
Apt No. 6-3 rooms. kitchenette and
DORCHESTER. 18th & Md Ave. S.
Apt, No. S3-2 rooms ..............-...s $40. 90
PENHURsT, 4s ST. NE.
Apt NC. 31-4 rooms, kitchen and bath sos 90
BLENHEIM COURTS, 1910 Calf st. y W.
Apt. No. 20l-2 rooms, kitchen and BATH 5000
WOODWARD. 231l Connecticut Ave. NV.
Apt. No. 203-2 rooms, kitchen & bath S75. 90
Apt. No. cos rooms. kitchen & b.. 200. 90
FALkST0NE CTS, 14th 4 Fairmont st. NV.
Apt. No. l1O-2' rooms, kitchen & bath $50. 90
DUNSMERE, 2523 l4th st. NV.
Apt No. 316-2 rooms kitchen & bath $50 90
CORTLAND. 1890 Euclid ST. NV.
Apt. No 1922 rooms, kitchen * ba m. sos. 90
Apt. No. 1868 rooms, kitchen & bath. 80. 90
Apt. No. 2O4-4 rooms kitchen bath. 100. 10
VICTORIA, 18th & Clifton SITS. NV
Apt. No. G3-4 rooras, kitchen & bath. 500. 90
Can BE Seen at Any Time or Cali Lincoln
Evening star., 1925-03-21

9s2 LoNGFELLoW sT. NW.-8 r., b..
ami, porches $500.
S02 S st: n.w.-1s 7, 3 b., ami, newly
decorated $4,000
12U7 FairnOnt st. n.w.--T r. b. ami
porches, garage space for one car 500 90.
1919 Harvard ST. n.w.-1O r., b.. ami
newly decorated. $1,000
WM $. PHILLIPS
Evening star., 1925-03-21
! ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS,

1858 CALIFORNIA ST.--BEAUTIFUL s.
room, kitchenette. bath and reception hall
apt; first floor; s75. Apply janitor. 22'