Evening star., 1925-03-10
BACKGROUND OF EVENTS
BY PAUL y. COLLINS.

II is readily conceded that the rise
and fall of the mercury In thermome-
ters and barometers do not cause the
changes Of weather, but simply re-
cord conditions which produce these
changes. Where are those conditions
originating?
The Smithsonian Institution, by It's
astrophysical observations, under the
charge OF DR.. Charles G. Abbott, Is
seeking to expand the knowledge or
weather by going beyond the surface
of the sea of atmosphere under which
men live, as the deep-sea monsters 90
at the bottom of the ocean. Primal
causes of the variations OF atmos-
pherio conditions are sought In the
variations of heat radiation OF the
sun. usually about per cent-some-
times as high as 12 per cent. The
causes of such solar variations are
traced to the presence of sunspots-
holes in the gaseous envelope or the
sun When there are many sunspols
they seem to increase the heat radl-
ated, just as is caused when one
stirs up the fire OF a CRATE by poklns
1t and moving the Goals. The sun
spots are immense chimneys through
which pour burning gases.
DR.. Abbott predicts that when the
|
ter understood and measured more &C
curately than Is now possible, wealth
er forecasting, extending months or
wears ahead may become reliable. 1t
is even suggested that miraculous In
sight enabled Joseph to predict with
the certainty we may know IN tne
future the seven fat years TO be foi-
lowed by the seven lean ones. The
Smithsonian Institution has been in
vestixating sunspot influences for ~
wears. Since December, 1928, there
have been active prognostlcatlons
made In the United States by DR.. h
n CIavton. connected with the Smith
sonian Institution, and located At
Canton, Mass.
For many years DR.. Clayton was ID
charge of weather observations or Cniie'
South America. where long-range iore-
casts were made upon the basis OF lhe
srn's radiation Of heat. DR. Abbott has
been quoted as stating that the Chbeah
forecasts were astonishingly accurate
although not infallible The science Is
new and undeveloped, the data are IN
sufficient.
DIR. Humphreys. head Of the United
States Weather Bureau, does not m
dorse all the sunspot doctrines. Ine
United states forecasts continue 10 De
dependent upon observations or at
mospheric conditions upon earth, fgnor-
ing the infinite universe.
u X x x
The science of weather predictions
based upon sunspots is not SO simple
as to declare that whenever there are
many spots with consequent increase
of sun. heat, there must be UNIFORM
proportionate and immediate increase
of earth temperature. Although II
hnn m
minutes to travel from sun to earth,
II takes the heating effect Of sun
spots some 10 days before noticeable
on earth in warming our atmosphere,
and then the temperature does not
rise uniformly all over the earth.
There are many other influences az
fecting wind and clouds, which cause
variation of local conditions; the
problems are complicated by all or
these.
There are private weather prophets
ubo sell long-range weather fore
casts and prosper by their continued
patronage from shippers, amusement
managers and market spectators 1t
would not be safe to belittle all such,
although conservative authority re-
mains skepttcai.
There are progressive or radical
prophets and astronomers or astro-
nhysicists, who seek knowledge even
| in searching for the influences which
cause the storms in the sun, mani
tested in the swirling sunspots.
Where doctors disagree, who shall
decide? Are even conservatives al
ways infallible?
X X \;
One Of the ltra-scientists Of Yale
University recently published an
article in a scientific magazine based
| upon records that the star Alpha
Centuari had made its closest APP
| proach to the sun $4,000 years ago,
and ever since has been receding.
| Blaming the statement upon the
| proofreader, it is now conceded that
| q wrong sign was used in the report.
| for it should have been recorded that
the star will arrive at its nearest
point to the sun $4,000 years in the
| future. That slip of $4,000 years in
scientific statement, while unusually
\ Inaccurate considering the authority
behind 1t, may suggest what vast
differences may arise in facts of
science.