Evening star., 1925-03-15

present ana the remOt6T Iu-
thre, IS perhaps the outstanding in
terrosation for the American world
which reckons, not with complete in
accuracy, that the survival of the
German republic is an essential cir
cumstance in future European
peace.
The answer to the question very
naturally falls into two distinct
phases. As to the proba bility of the
survival of the republic through pres
ent crises and for period measured
by years by something not less than
five and perhaps not more than ten.
the answer one has here is pretty
unqualified. AS to the more distant
future, there is by contrast a great
diversity of judgment and no incon-
siderable agreement on the theory
that the answer is undiscovera BILE at
the present time, and will largely de-
pend upon incalculable circumstances.
Perils In Monarchy.
As TO the present status of the re-
public, one hears the same opinion
everywhere-the republic must last,
popular or unpopular, simply because
3 change would be alike disastrous
in the foreign and the domestic situ-
alton, because a restoration of the
monarchy would mean automatic end
ing of foreign loans, the almost
equally sure INVASION OF Germany,
and, in addition, no end of domestic
distur bance. A restored monarchy
could only come in with bloodshed.
and on it's arrival the last hope of
financial aid from the outside world
would go glimmering.
/ think it would be a matter of
common agreement that the feeling
toward the republic has undergone
material change in the past six years;
hot b. -hnl
republic has declined; that as an alb
stract proposition it is weaker than
it was in the Weimar days and in the
period OF the first Reichstag, with it's
clearly republican and domestic ma
jorities.
After all, one cannot help recalling
the old slander of the restored mon
archy in Bourbon France after the
Napoleonic era. Its enemies said that
the restored Louis had been brought
along in the baggage of the victorious
allies of that time. In the case of the
German republic one might rather
say that a similar feeling found ex-
preston in the view that. although
Germany had changed her form of
government in the hope OF moderat-
ing allied bitterness, the republic had
of Versailles, the Ruhr occupation,
and could not now free German terri
tory of the Cologne, area.
Bitter After-war Days.
The after-war period in Germany
has, on the whole, been a bitterer
time than the war period itself,
which, up to the swift and sudden
: collapse in the closing days, at least
maintained German prestige in the
world. With the ultimate and su-
preme disaster the Germans turned
away from the empire. How deep, how
complete the revulsion was no one
can perhaps say, but there was the
revulsion, there was a restricted revo-
luton, the Hohenzollerns went out, a
dynasty covered with the discredit
of failure and compromised by
rather inelorious exit.
But from the moment of the ar
rival of the republic to the present
hour Germany's misfortunes, Ger
many's humiliations. her present
weakness have been inevitably asso-
ciated in the minds of Germans with
the republic circumstance which
the enemies of the republic have al
ways skillfully emphasized The dis
asters of 1918 have tended to become
ancient history. while the humilia-
tions and sufferings incident to the
unsuccessful Ruhr campaign are still
OF present memory.
Step by step, as consequence, the
political movement has been toward
the right, toward the men and par
ties of the old regime. The last cleo
tion but one represented an enormous
success for the reaction. The last
election, paradoxically, resulted in a
slight reversal, but ended by the
creation Of q new ministry, in which,
for the first time since the war, the
Nationalist party was powerfully rep
resented, while the Social Democrats
and the Democrats were practically
excluded.
Scandals Are Factor.
: Again, one must note that precisely
as the leaders of the Republican par
Fies have been weakened because of
1heir inability to perform miracles
and their necessity to accept allied
deofsions which they were powerless
TO rosist, certain of them have been
Fprnpromised by personal scandals, by
hhings which We call at home graft"
kJust at the moment there is going on
Riisensation which vaguely, perhaps,
bscalls the oil business in Washing
ton last Winter.
( liThe republic, then, is weaker than
Etlwas, has been on the whole grow
f1nE weaker progressively for five
Years, with the possible exception of
the period just following the adop-
Tlon of the Dawes plan. 1t is terri
Flly embarrassed at the moment be-
cause of the failure of the allies to
sput the Cologne area in conformity
with the time fixed by the treaty of
Versailles. 1t may be fatally compro-
missed, looking to the more distant
future. If evacuation does not take
place presently, if the opponents of
the republic are able to assert credi-
bly, that the allies have no intention
Of quitting the Rhine-in a word, that
Germany is to be mutilated further.
So much for the weakness. 1t is
real, II is unmist takable. If it con-
tinues and progresses, no one will
much question the ultimate return of
monarchy. But there are elements
of strength, and, from the American
point of view, of hope. In the first
place, the present division into par
ties does not mean square division
between people who would restore the
monarchy today and those who would
preserve the republic today and to-
morrow. 1t is a division between
those people who hope one day to
upset the republic and now are seek
ing to gain control of Germany
through mastery of the republican
machinery and those who desire to
control the machinery to preserve
the republic.
Doubts Capacity to Make War.
Despite all reports to the contrary.
think there is no informed or cred
ible evidence in Berlin or elsewhere
of any present capacity of the Ger
mans to make war. They may have
more guns than the law allows, but
they haven't enough guns or the kind
OF guns to enable them to face
France. And they know it They
know, too, that to recall a king would
be to- loose the French armies, to