The Bismarck tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, N.D.) 1916-current, 1925-07-16
SCIENCE NOW
CAN PREDICT
EARTHQUAKES
Way to Prevent TremOrs,
However, Is Still
Lacking
BY CHARLES +. STEWART
NEA Service Writer

aren't hard to foretell. A bit OF
study's necessary, that's all.
Predictions can't be quite as ac-
curate as the weather bureaus, per
haps. That is, they can't be pinned
down TO specific dates.
However, they usually can be
made within matter of months
They can be made, too, a good deal
farther in advance than weather
predictions can.
This is the testimony Of experts
like the hydrogfaphic Offices, the
coast and geodetic surveys, the bur
eau Of standards and the Smithson-
ian and Carnegie Institutions. These
scientists do no wild guessing, make
no forecasts on the strength of any
thing but information they have eX-
cellent reason TO consider reliable,
In support Of their claims they
point out that the California coast
in the vicinity Of Santa Barbara has
been under suspicion for three or
four years Navy records and those
of the Carnegie and Smithsonian In
stitutions prove it.
As long ago as last summer Lieut.,
Commander George +. Brandt, then
assistant photographic office chief
definitely mentioned Santa Barbara
as u danger point.
Only 4 few days before the &C
tual temblor Admiral W. Eberle,
chief of naval operations, expressed
the opinion that "Brandt's earth
quake" was about due.
Not bad prophesy, either as to
time or area! The experts didn't
go quite so far as to say Santa Bar
bara would be stricken, but the ex-
preston around Santa Barbara" was
heard from them frequently.
Seismology's progress has been
very rapid recently, owing to per-
lection of the sonic depth finder by
DR.. Harvey c. Hayes Of the naval
research laboratory, near Washing
ton.
Previously deep sea sounding had
been such slow work that scientists
couldn't keep up with changes in
ocean depths. With Or. Hayes de-
vice it is done as rapidly as a fast
ship can steam, SO that a ayby- day
record is possible, if desired.
That's just what science does re-
quire maybe not literally day-by-
day, but frequently--to know Of com
ing quakes. Earth shifts which
presage big shakeups occur pretty
rapidly, once they start.
We think of geological changes as
taking ages, and no doubt the pro-
cesses responsible for them are very
slow, but when the time comes for
a readjustment nature works fast.
Indeed, the quakes themselves
testify to this theory's correctness
They certainly are abrupt enough.
However, there are advance warn
ings. ship equipped with the
Hayes sounding device charts the
ocean floor in the autumn, say, anC
off Santa Barbara.
The following spring she take!
fresh soundings and finds deepe
water in some places than before
The best guess is that submarin,
fault has slipped.
Something like a rubber ball, tn.
earth, pressed down in one spot
tends to rise somewhere else.
It's up to the investigators, having
discovered point where a downwar,
pressure evidently is being exerted
to determine where the correspond
ing upward tilt is to be expected.
By following the line of the faul
this isn't difficult to do-and quite
exactly.
Seismologists don't neglect LAM
observations. Much is learned from
them, but generally this knowledg,
lags behind what is discovered b,
submarine research.
For one thing, the oceans are mucl
larger than the land surfaces. Their,
are more submarine than Ian,
changes because there's more room
for them.
Secondly, it is into the sea tina
the continents are constantly bein
washed, pressing down on the oceal
floor and disturbing balances 0
weight on the earths crust. Thu
most quakes are believed to be o
submarine origin, only their reflexe
being felt ashore.
Finally, let crack open in tn
scaled and in rushes lot of col
water onto the earth's redhot inter
Tor, causing an explosion whic
shakes things up as only such
monster explosion can.
To be sure, earthquakes can't b
prevented, even if foreseen Blu
precautions can be taken to minimiz
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