Evening star., 1925-03-15

action could only seize power by the
strong arm if red revolution could
be galvanized in the foreground
and it cannot by any conceivable
fight of imagination be so discov-
cred. But l do not think L exag-
gerate when L say that the future
of the republic depends upon rela-
lively early turn of the tide. The
drift is all against it. The turn
seemed to have come with the Dawes
plan, but the Cologne episode upset
the tendency, at least temporarily
negatived most of the beneficial effect
of this adjustment.
Eighteen months ago the German
was fiat on his back-perhaps more
exactly he was fat upon his head
With the initiation crisis he was
utterly bewildered and almost COM
pletely hopeless. Perhaps there has
never been in modern history any
such colossal nightmare, such a
gigantic spectacle, as the German
rush to financial chaos. But all this
is over. Even the effects have par
TALLY worn off You can exaggerate
the extent of the recovery, but there
is quite another German walking
abroad on the streets today than at
this time year and half ago.
This German, by and large, asso-
ciates all his past misfortunes with
the deeds of his foreign enemy, and
mainly with France. He hates
France, and his hatred is general, in
tense and on the whole rather in
creasjng. 1t is founded as / have
said, upon the conviction that France
has been and is out to destroy Ger
many, and this fact must be ac-
cepted. But it is founded, / think
although here | am sure my French
friends and perhape some OF my
Americans will disagree with me
upon a cardinal assumption, which
might be in relatively near future
proven inexact. 1t might be demol-
ished, at least largely, if evacuation
should take place under terms in con-
formity with the treaty as the Ger
man understands it.
IndustriaIists Powerful.
find it excessively difficult to give
any exact picture of the German situ-
alton. because it is itself very chaotic
and the Germans are notoriously in
scrutable. But on broad, general
lines | think it is comprehended in
the statement that materially more
than so per cent of the people stlll
, advocate the republic, but not, in all
probability, so per cent measured by
influence and political power.
Most, but not all, of this so per
cent belongs, politically speaking, to
one of three parties-the Social Dem
ocratic the Clerical, and the Demo-
cratic Ten per cent, perhaps-the
Communists-are equally against the
republic and restored monarchy
equally hostile to Weimar and Pots
dam. Then there remains 40 per
cent, making up the Peoples party
and the Nationalists of all stripes,
including both extremes. The Peo-
ple's party, which is numerically
weaker than the Social Democrats,
the Clericals or the Nationalists, is,
on the other hand, excessively power
full, since It represents the great IN
dustrialists.
For domestic political reasons,
largely tariff, the Peoples party seeks
coalition with the Nationalists, and
the present government represents
such a. combination, with the more or
less passive consent of the ClericalS.
But neither the Clericals nor the
Peoples party has any present wish
to assist the Nationalists in the
restoration of the monarchy, and the
larger fraction of the Nationalists
perceives that the thing is today out
of the question.
Control of Key Positions.
The serious thing is that such a
coalition inevitably places the Ma
tionalist party in control of many of
the strategic positions. 1t is steadily
replacing the old Republican party
representatives in the official COM
mittees and posts which are most i'm
portant. Thus you cannot blink at
the fact that ultimate restoration
would be easier as d result of what
has happened recently and is still
happening. But, again, this would
imply a continuation of the present
decline in the prospects of the re-
public, d protraction of unfavorable
foreign conditions.
To sum it all up. then, Germany has
been and is still in reaction against
the republic which has lost ground
and is losing ground, but it has not
yet lost SO much ground as to be
doomed. Hardly any one with whom
i talked would assent to the notion
that it had no chance. A surprisingly
large number believed it would in the
end become perhaps a habit and con-
tinue. but not without luck, not with
out a favorable break in foreign af-