Coulee City dispatch. [volume] (Coulee City, Wash.) 19??-19??, 1925-05-29
Hog Raiser Has
Ups and Downs
Farmers Rarely Hit the Mar
ket Right With Their Sup
ply of Porkers.

1
| prepared by the United States Department
| of Agriculture.)
| It Is not news to the American farm
er that the hog industry in this coun-
| try, as far back as its history runs. has
been of cylindrical character. Every
| hog raiser knows that his business is
plagued by violent ups and downs that
mean loss to him, and extra expense
to everyone that sells, buys, handles,
stores or consumes pork products. So
periodic are the movements Of the
hog cycle that economists can fore
cast them with something Of the same
confidence with which astronomers cal
culate the orbit Of comet or predict
an eclipse.
| What the farmer wants to know
about the hog cycle is not so much
how 1t works; he knows that to his
cost. He wants to know what can
| be done about 1t. That is not such
| an Idle question now as 1t might have
seemed few years ago. Studies made
recently by the United States DEPART
ment Of Agriculture into the nature
| Of hog cycles have brought out the
positive declaration not only that the
| cycle can be eliminated, but that it
can be eliminated by the American
hog producer, without the cooperation
| Of producers in any other part of the
world.
Worth Studying.
| On the face of it proposition like
! that should be worth studying. With
hog production swinging in fairly
regular alienation from over to un-
Reproduction, farmers practically
never hit the market just right with
their hogs. At one stage they have
many hogs to sell and make but
small profit or perhaps suffer loss
on them. At another stage they have
but few hogs to sell, and this Is al
ways when hogs are bringing the high
est prices. Any practical method Of
| gauging hog production and market
| ing in such a way as to level out the
| peaks and depressions Of the market
| would be as good as gold mine to
The possibility of regulating the
hog cycle, according to economists in
| the Department Of Agriculture, lies in
the fact that this country dominates
| the worlds hog market. The United
| States has as many hogs as all Eu-
rope. American hog production con-
| tributes nearly twO-thirds Of the sup
ply of hog products entering into in
| ternational trade. 1t therefore dom
mates hog prices even though the mar
ket in which those prices are made
| Is worldwide. Steadier production in
this country, besides eliminating the
wastes fnseparable from uneven pro-
duction, would tend to establish the
| hog industry on stable basis in
every country where 1t is functioning
on commercial scale.
Make Industry More Stable.
Economists In the Department Of
Agriculture believe that the hog in
dustry could be made more stable If
| producers would drop their present
method Of gauging their production
plans on the basis of current corn
and hog prices, and instead base their
| breeding operations upon the official
outlook statement issued periodically
! BY the Department Of Agriculture
| That may look like an invitation to
| speculate. 1t Is really proposal that
| the speculative element, which is
| large in the hog business anyway,
/ a,,II No In <1I 20 Ia
The present alienation Of overpro-
duction and interpretation in the
hog industry results from the farmers
| practice Of looking at the current mar
ket prices for corn and hogs when
| he has to decide how many s0ws to
breed. This plan fails to allow for
| the time that must pass before the re-
suits of breeding decisions thus made
will be felt in larger or smaller move
| ment Of hogs to market. The number
| of hogs on the market at any given
| time Is not adjusted to the price con-
ditions then existing, because the
amount of the supply was determined
months previously on the conditions
prevailing at that time. Here is where
| the hog cycle starts Boosting pro-
duction when prices are at their peak
and cutting 1t down heavily when they
are low means hog supply nearly al
ways too large of too small, since
price conditions almost invariably
change before changes in breeding pol
| icies have their effect In an increased
or lessened supply Of hogs.
If the farmer could know what prices
will rule when the hogs from the
ssows they are breeding will be ready
for market, they could better adjust
the supply of hogs to the demand.
They could diminish the ups and
downs Of production that are the bane
of the hog industry. Economists In
the Department of Agriculture have
| worked out method of forecasting
hog prices which has been thoroughly
| tested, and which makes 1t possible for
the trend Of the hog market to be
| foreseen far enough ahead and with
enough general accuracy to give the
farmers better and safer basis for
| gauging production than they can
ever get from watching the current
| markets.