Evening star., 1925-08-16

ldlSeu uiGecllS DN the several state
ments and by the official papers of
Dr. Stresemann, the German Foreign
Minister, relating to the proposed Sc
curity pact and to the accompanying
of German entrance into the
League of Nations.
This aspect of the security issue
and, indeed, of the whole European
problem-has so far attracted nothing
like the attention it deserves, because
the world, and America in particular,
is thinking of the past and not of the
future. Yet it is unmistakable in the
persistent effort of the Germans in all
the present discussions to keep their
Lands free and avoid any undertaking
which might in any compromising
fashion affect their future relations
with Russia, not merely or mainly
with the present Soviet mess, but with
a restored Russia, with a Russia re
turned to her place as a great Euro
pean power.
German Future at Stake.
Germany believes-this is patent
that her own future as a great power
is contingent upon Russian recovery
and a RusSo-G erman understanding.
Economically, German recovery is now
assured. Within a relatively brief
time she will become, what she was
before the war. the greatest industrial
state in continental Europe. She is
certain, too, within a decade at the
most, TO escape from the restrictive
influences of the Treaty of Versailles.
10 become master within her own
house when the armies of occupation
of the allies leave, as they must in
1925
But thus freed from restraint and
Snr
Having freedom of choice. will she
seek to align herself with western
powers or eastern-that is, to make
some form of entente with one or more
of her foes of the World War or to
join with renascent Russia in a new
association? This is the most impor-
tant question in Europe today.
In examining the western possibili-
ties, it is manifest that of the three
possible combinations, namely. with
Britain, Italy or France, that with
Great Britain is. on first glance, the
most obvious, and, one may say quite
accurately, the single partnership in
the West which now has German ad-
herents. Nevertheless, despite it's ap-
parent possibilities, it is not an exag-
geration to say that. on the whole, it
has been rejected in advance by the
majority of Germans.
Great Britain Her Rival.
The reason is simple. Despite all
recent British irritation at French
policies, it is undeniable that France
is In no sense a rival of Britain. No
territorial ambition of France menaces
the colonial empire of the English
while, despite a certain increase in
French industrial importance, France
is totally unlikely ever to be a dan
gerous competitor in the economic
field. Moreover, while French popula
ton tends to increase somewhat more
rapidly than before the war. due to a
large immigration, there is no prospect
of any such expansion as would make
France formidable in this direction,
BY contrast, Germany is already
showing signs of regaining all the
challenging position she held with re.
spect of British industry before the
war. Her population is increasing at a
much swifter pace than the French
and she has already avowed a deter
mination to re-enter the colonial field
and to regain some of her lost colonies
which in the main fell to British man,
date control.
British policy, after a certain hesita-
ton during the postwar years, and
particularly during the Ruhr episode.
has finally come down on a course of
action which, while aiming at avoiding
any separate alliance, accepts the guar
antee of French security-and Bel
gian-as the basis of British CONT
mental policy. In a word, the British
have recognized that Germany will be
in the future the dangerous rival, and
the vepy gravity of the economic
challenge eliminates any possibility of
political alliance.
War Germany's Goal.
Moreover, assuming an alliance were
possible on the British side, it would
be founded upon totally dissimilar in
terests, and would be fatally crippling
to the Germans, for the main British
concern is the preservation of peace
at all costs, while German policy is
directed at the remaking of certain
territorial decisions of the last war,
which can only be changed by war.
And what, from the British standpoint
would be worse, the involved state of
Europe would make il almost impossi-
bic that such war would be localized.
All British influence, then, in case of
an alliance, would be directed at re.
straining German action where Ger.
man wish was strongest.
AS to German-Itahan alliance,
this is superficially conceivable. Ger
many and Italy were partners for
many years before the World War.
Nevertheless. the test of war showed
the alliance to be without real founda-
ton, and the results of the war have
erected new barriers while they have
reinforced the old Thus for Italy
union of Austria and Germany would
be a fatal circumstance, for il would
vi n
dangers, but it would replace the weak
Austrian by the powerful German. 1t
would be, in effect, to put not alone
the Brenner region, with its German
population, but Trieste and the whole
Adriatic coast in jeopardy, while il
would exclude Italian influence from
the Danube and the Balkans.
Not only is no German-Italian ALI.
ance conceivable, then, but in the
nature of things, as Mussolini's recent
speeches have disclosed, it is Italy, not
France, which effectively mounts
guard to preserve the status quo as
far as Austria is concerned. 1t is
possible that in time and with the
growth of confidence in their own
security and the German recognition
of the status quo in the Rhine region
the French might cease to be interest
ed in the Austrian question, but such
time can never come for Italy.
France Out of Question.
On the material side-that is, leav-
ing out all practical considerations
Franco-German combination is by all
odds the simplest and the most nat
ural, because, now that AlSace-Lor-
raine has returned to France and Ger
many comedies the finality of the
transfer, there remains no political or
economic barrier to partnership, once
the French are freed from any real or
imaginary peril of a German attack.
French and German coal and iron are,
in the nature of things. the basis for
economic combination, while, save as