Evening star., 1925-09-14
PROHIBITION FACING BIG TEST,
CHURCH COUNCIL REPORT SAYS
Ultimate Success Failure Depends Upon Public
Opinion, at Present Undecided, 1t Concludes
Hits Unreliable Statistics.

Ing statistics. In 80 far as relia nee
ls placed upon such statistics by the
friends Of prohibition the cause In
jeopa rdized for two definite rea sons:
I'D The data themselves are in large
part disquieting: t2) the most signifi.
cant effects OF the prohibition regime
are not those which are reflected in
statistical data. 1t should be re
membered. however. that attempts to
dfsprove the success OF prohibition by
means Of statistics are subject to a
similar limitation.
Effects Inconspicuous.
The data which indicate the con-
tinuance, or revival. OF the we'll
known evils that follow in the train
OF the liquor traf1c are proba bly, not
very significant SO far az the masses
of the people are concerned. Deaths
from alcoholism, the incidence OF
mental diseases due 20 alcoholism
and kindred effects serious as they
are. are directly related TO but
very small portion OF the population.
In the statistical picture they are
prominent. whereas the wholesome
effects OF prohibition are registered
in inconspicuous ways. although they
concern the great ma iority who do
not appear In any way in the social
statistics. They are not clients of
social agencies: they are not wards
OF the State: they are not commonly
patients In hospitals. The effect Of
prohibition upon their lives is almost
impossible to measure. 1t Is not
part OF the statistical picture.
Even so important social fact as
the abolition OF the open saloon-an
,all but universally admitted moral q nd
economic gain-does not leave results
that can be readily mea sured. Yet
taken by itself the ba anishment OF the
saloon Ia one of the outsta ndine social
facts OF contempors American his
tory. And there seems to be not the
least doubt that the country has ac-
cepted with "a atisfaction the pa ssing Of
the saloon. Its memory inspires few
tears and seldom is a voice raised in
the interest Of its return.
1T is proper. however, I'm any
candid inquiry 10 collect and consider
all the available data that bear upon
the subject in hand. And even were
this not deemed desirab BILE il has been
rendered necessary by the extensive
and often ill-advised use of sta tistics
OF a wholly inadequate sort and with.
out care in Interpretation. During the
present study much time has been
consumed in examining material gath
cred by various agencies at great cost
and used 10 prove this or that con-
ciusion, which has. when closely scru-
tinlzed, little value. because the CON
clusions are not justified by the evil
dence
1T must he admitted. with profound
regret. that the publicity material Ia
calculated With A view to influencing
public opinion on this important aues-
ton have been based very largely
upon inadequate methods OF research
and upon Questionable and often false
data. and have been characterized by
wholly unwarra nted inferences 1t
would seem. therefore, that one of the
most important tasks from the view.
point OF those who would make pro-
hibition more successful Is to effect a
change In the whole basis nd method
of prohibition propa ga nda Such a
change would he the most effective
method Of combating misleading prop
aganda directed against prohibition. g