Evening star., 1925-12-06
Basis for Prediction of Earthquakes
May Be Found by New Investigations

prediction as TO the place where eartn-
uuakes are likely TO occur is of ina
mense practical value, and this for q
region where information is quite
complete is apparently not impossible
There is reason 10 believe that the
japanese earthquake of 1928 was fully
expected by seismologists. Such pre-
diction should lead 10 the proper con
struction of buildings and the deve!-
opment of special precautions. Pre-
diction in time. though useful, is per
haps not even desirable in many cases.
Whether or not there il any
hope Of such prediction. the possibility
is worthy of investigation
4 +
THE mention of attaining prediction
both in time and place brings up
an interesting line of thought. While
it would be Necessary to guard against
pa dniC, and to educate the people IN al
fected regions To u Common-sense pro
gram in an emergency, such prediction
before Il ma jor shock would undoubted
ly result in saving lives and property.
Fire hazard could be eliminated b.
shutting down electric lights and
power plants, all fires being drawn
and gas turned off from the mains
To prevent an outbreak of thievinS
during the excitement, known Grim
tnals could be rounded up and tempo
rarily isolate Residents of buildings
erected before the time of earthquake
construction could remove to safer
homes, and in small cities. or where
a shock of the greatest intensity was
expected. complete evacuation could
be accomplished under martial law.
These would be extreme cases, yet not
impossible of realizati ton.
Similar warning of submarine earth
quakes, those responsible for tidal
waves. would render valuable service
with little chance of panic. Vessels
could gain the safety of the sea, and
people living along the coasts could be
moved back to higher land.
Earthquakes of the submarine typa
are usually associated with deep oceay.
troughs. such as the Tuscarora Deep
6,440 fathoms), off the coast of Japan.
which has been connected with Dumer-
Gus Japa nese disturbances. Similar
deeps exist east of Mindanao, T. l..
north of Porto Rico and north of ia
maica. Another one was discovered re
Gently along the coast of Mexico and
Central America by the Coast and Geo
detic Survey steamer Guide. Its depth
is $500 fathoms.
Those not versed in Seismology some
times wonder why the earth does no.
reach d final adjustment, after which
there would be no more earthquakes.
This is because the earth's crust is
continually unbalanced by the transfer
of material from place to place on land.
and from land to sea by the process Of
erosion and deposition. Thus the
loads upon the outer crust are cor
Stantly being changed and great
stresses are being built up. Sooner o.
later these stresses force the crust To
yield along the nearest fault or veal
spot. and the yielding takes the form
of an earthquake. There are. doubt
less, other causes, as yet undetermined
by scientists, but this force mentioneu
is sufficient to insure the continuance
of seismic disturbance as long as t..
earth exists. However. the earth j.
now in a more settled state than ever
before. The tremors of the present
fade into insignlticapce in comparison
| with those of prehistoric times, when
a whole world was in travail.