The Monmouth inquirer. [volume] (Freehold, N.J.) 1865-1933, 1925-05-21
Hog Raiser Has
Ups and Downs
Farmers Rarely Hit the Mar
ket Right With Their Sup
ply Of Porkers.


1t is not news to the American farm
er that the hog industry in this eoun-
try, as far back as its history runs, has
been Of cylindrical character. Every
hog raiser knows that his business is
plagued by violent ups and downs that
mean loss to him, and extra expense
to everyone that sells, buys, handles,
stores or consumes pork products. SO
periodic are the movements of the
hog cycle that economists can fore
cast them with something of the same
confidence with which astronomers cal
culate the orbit of a comet or predict.
an eclipse.
What the farmer wants to know
about the hog cycle is not so much
how it works; he knows that to his
cost. He wants to know what can
be done about it. That is not such
an idle question now as it might have
seemed few years ago. Studies made
recently by the United States Depart
ment of Agriculture into the nature
Of hog cycles have brought out the
positive declaration not only that the
cycle can be eliminated, but that it
can be eliminated by the American
hog producer, without the cooperation
of producers in any other part Of the
world.
Worth Studying.
On the face of it proposition like
that should be worth studying. With
hog production swinging in a fairly
regular alienation from over to I'M
Reproduction, farmers practically
never hit the market just right with
their hogs. At one stage they have
many hogs TO sell and make but
small profit or perhaps suffer loss
ON them. At another stage they have
but few hogs to sell, and this is al
ways when hogs are bringing the high
est prices. Any practical method of
gadging hog production and market.
ing in such a way as to level out the
peaks and depressions of the market
would be, as good as gold mine to
the American farmer.
The possibility OF regulating the
hog cycle, according to economists in
the Department Of Agriculture, lies in
the fact that this country dominates
the worlds hog market. The United
States has as many hogs as all Eu-
rope. American hog production con-
tributes nearly two-thirds of the sup
ply of hog products entering into in
ternational trade 1t therefore dom
mates hog prices even though the mar
ket in which those prices are made
is worldwide. Steadier production in
this country, besides eliminating the
wastes inseparable from uneven pro-
duction, would tend to establish the
hog industry on a stable basis in
every country where it is functioning
on commercial scale.
Make Industry More Stable.
Economists in the Department of
Agriculture believe that the hog in
dustry could be made more stable if
producers would drop their present
method Of gauging their production
plans on the basis of current corn
and hog prices, and instead base their
breeding operations upon the official
outlook statement issued periodically
by the Department of Agriculture.
That may look like an invitation to
speculate. 1t is really proposal that
the speculative element, which is
large in the hog business anyway,
should be eliminated as far as possible.
The present alienation of overpro-
duction and underproduction in the
hog industry results from the farmers
practice of looking at the current mar
ket prices for corn and hogs when
he has to decide how many sows TO
breed This plan fails to allow for
the time that must pass before the re-
suits of breeding decisions thus made
will be felt in a larger or smaller move
ment of hogs to market. The number
of hogs on the market at any given
time is not adjusted to the price con-
ditions then existing, because the
amount of the supply was determined
prevailing at that time. Here is where
the hog cycle starts. Boosting pro-
duction when prices are at their peak
and cutting it down heavily when they
are low means a hog supply nearly al
ways too large of too small. since
price conditions almost invariably
change before changes in breeding pol
icies have their effect in an increased
or lessened supply of hogs.
If the farmer could know what prices
will rule when tile hogs from the
sows they are breeding will be ready
for market they could better adjust
the supply of hogs to the demand.
They could diminish the ups and
downs of production that are the bane
of the hog industry. Economists in
the Department of Agriculture have
worked out a method of forecasting
hog prices which has been thoroughly
tested, and which makes it possible for
the trend Of the hog market to be
foreseen far enough ahead and with
enough general accuracy to give the
farmers a better and safer basis for
gauging production than they can
ever get from watching the current