Evening star., 1925-10-11
WEATHER CHANGE
BY SUN DECLARED NOT FEASIBLE
Bureau Chief Marvin Takes Issue With Clayton
Abbot Theory That Varying Solar Heat
Indicates Conditions On Earth

The great battle among Government
scientists over the question of whether
weather changes can be forecast by
studying changes in the suns heat
continues.
H. H. Clayton of Canton, Mass, and
DR.. c. G. Abbot, director of the astro-
physical observatory of the Smith
sonian Institution, who have been
working and experimenting on the
affirmative side of the debate for 20
years, assert that changes in the suns
heat control weather conditions; that
foreca sting on this basis Is possible
and practicable and is the system of
forecasting used by the Argentine gov
ernment. They concede that they
have not yet reached the point where
the system could be used in this coun-
try, but believe they will.
If they are right, their method will
supplant the Weather Bureaus method
Of forecasting for several days in ad-
vance by a study of daily observations,
peculiar local conditions and records.
The Clayton-Abbot school predicts that
forecasts for much longer periods and
with a greater degree of accuracy will
be possible by their system. Earlier
this year Clayton and Abbot publish
ed late results of their experiments
and observations.
Takes Issue With Claim.
Now comes c. F. Marvin, chief of
the Weather Bureau and leader of
the negative side of the debate, with
the most comprehensive technical
analysis of the Clayton-Abbot claim
yet attempted. His analysis runs into
many thousands of words, written for
the scientist rather than the public,
and yet is intended only as a pre-
liminary survey, which will be follow
ed by further reports. He is support
ed by Herbert H. kimball, solar radi-
alton investigator for the Weather
Bureau, with another technical paper.
Both Marvin and Kimball applaud the
devotion to science of their adver-
saries, and instead of declaring their
claims without merit, conservatively
pointing out what they regard as err
rors in the Clayton-Abbot observations,
and In effect, hold they have not
tToVed their point to the satisfaction
of science. Marvin in his report
argGAs In a nutshell:
Thas while there are changes in
the suns heat, no accurate method
of measuring those changes or of
showing how often they occur or
whether they are periodic or of prov.
ing daily changes important, has been
discovered.
That changes without as we'll as
within the sun determine the effect
OF its heat upon the earth.
That there are other factors, in
addition to the suns heat, which
determine weather conditions.
Seeks Basis of Change.
I'm the derived day-to.day values
OF the solar constant taverage) are
found greater or lesser irregular
changes" said Mr.. Marvin. What
part of these, If any is due to
changes in solar intensity and what
part to wholly unavoidable atmos-
pheric influences and other errors of
measurement?
Fully alert to the great meteoro-
logical importance Of consequential
changes in the solar constant over
both short and long periods of time,
we regard 1t as of paramount i'm
portance to seek out a quantitative
answer to the question proposed It
is futile to hope to establish any
scientific basis for weather forecast
ing on supposed changes Of solar CON
slant before we know that the con-
stant does change from day to day,
and II it does, how much
That is the heart of the Marvin
argument; but his principal conten-
ton is the statement that monthly
average values of solar heat are
shown to be affected by atmospheric
changes. which means that the suns
heat must be subject to change daily