Evening star., 1925-09-13
SNOW IN JUNE, FROST In JULY
ARE PROMISED FOR NEXT YEAR
Summerless Summer, Crop Failures and Famine
Are Predicted by French Abbe of Wide Renown
AS Prognosticator of Weather Conditions.

If next Summer isn't next Summer
at all, but a diluted dose of this Win
ter north of the Potomac
II 1t Is necessary to shovel snow
off the front walk instead of worrying
over how fast the ice in the refrig-
orator is melting on the 9Th day OF
next June
II the good citizenry must wear
mittens on July to keep the frost
from nipping their fingers
1t will be, as Mohammed said, a
devil of a mess"
The prospect may seem inviting in
this present hot spell. But 1t actu-
ally would mean starvation and mis-
cry over large sections of the world,
Probably a summerless year would
take a greater toll Of life and happi
ness than was taken by any single
year Of the World War.
And this Is what is predicted for
the Northern Hemisphere by Liable
Gabriel. French ecclesiast and anna
teur meteoroIogist, who happens to
have some standing in his own coun-
try as a prognosticator. having on
several occasions guessed or reckoned
correctly on weather some time in
advance.
French Peasants Frightened.
Il ADDe NrdDlleI, tHciO 10 ilo uooD|
about 1t, has the plain people scared.
During the past four days converse
ton in street and marketplace has
concerned itself much with the
weather.
"Whew! I wish I was in Green
land" says perspiring John Doe,
meeting his friend Richard Roe.
Never mind" returns the said Roe.
"I see where some Frenchman has
s,,bN rn4rl f0
have no Summer next Summer"
John and Richard have indulged in
the above dialogue 67,S96 times. con-
servatively estimated, in Washington
during the past week.
The venerable able, together with
numbers Of other prognosticators VINO
have arrived at somewhat the same
conclusions throughout the world
during the past two years, bases his
predictions on weather cycles.
There are all sorts of possible cy-
cles in weather Two of them, at
least, are recognized and used for
purposes OF predictions by every
body.
The day is a perfect cycle. Barring
unforeseen and headachy meteoroglcal
complications, It is safe to pred1ct
that tday at II NJ. will be warmer
than today at sunrise. 1t usually
happens that way and has so hap
pened through the period OF human
records.
Larger Cycles Possible.
The wear Is a perfect cycle. It is
safe to predict that there will be
sharp rise in temperature between
February l and July /. The farmer
is justified in going ahead with his
crops and the city dweller in ordering
his coal on the exceedingly great
probability of the correctness or the
year cycle, without taking into con-
sideration the movements OF the
earth around the sun. 1t has always,
within human memory, happened
that way. Millions of years ago that
may not have been the case. There
is some evidence TO show that there
were no seasonal changes IN the days
when Northern Greenland was
semi-tropical garden-no summer, no
Spring, and no Winter, but all
merged in one. Conditions were
somehow different then. Nobody
knows lust how. 1t was before the
DAYS of man. Since he has lived on
earth the year cycle has been safe
to base predictions upon.
Now meteorologists long have had
sneaking hunch that there may be
other cycles-periods extending over
wears, decades or centuries-with as
regular and reliable variations as the
day and year.
liable Gabriel, for instance, holds
that there is one Of about 800 years
with regular, undertaking returns OF
cold and hot years as easily predict
able as II Is to predict that Summer
will be warmer than Winter.
Great famines, for instance, seem to
have struck Europe throughout his
troy with uncanny regularity A
famine is almost always due to un-
favorable crop weathers. Rev. VIII
liam Veveridge of England. another
amateur prognosticator, last year pre-
dicted that from the record OF past
famines 1925 would be famine year.
He withdrew his prediction, however,
before 1t was too late for the year to
prove him wrong.
But Liable Gabriel sticks to his.
He sees hard times. ahead on the
boulevards of gay Paree.
United States Limit Three Days.
Is there any reasonable basis for
what he says?
DIR. Charles F. Marvin. head of the
United States Weather Bureau, has
slim faith in longrange predictions.
1t would be fine to tell the weather
year ahead, he says, If 1t were pos
sible. He has not found any system
to date by which this can be done.
The Weather Bureau confines it's pre-
dictions to three days in advance, and
it's system to calculations from OBJ
served atmospheric lows and highs,
moving storm centers and so on.
In fact, relations between the
Weather Bureau and the Smithsonian
Institution, 1t is rumored in scientific
circles about Washington, are not as
cordial as they might be because the
former institution looks with suspicion
on the solar radiation method of
Of weather prediction, which allows
prognostications for a week and a
month in advance, which is founded
upon observations taken under the
direction Of the latter.
DR.. Marvin would no more venture
a prediction for next Summer than he
would jump off the Washington Monu-
ment. He is among the most con-
servative of scientists, moving only
upon proven fundamentals.
He spares no effort, however, in ef
forts to go to the bottom of any
theory propounded, in the hope that
something will come along eventually
which will allow long-range predic
tions with reasonable accuracy. Con-
sequently he is one of the world fore
most experts on weather cycles. He
has spent long hours in the study of
tables Of observations of weather as
far back as weather has been recorded.
Evuoru pOv- and then ha saws tbara