The Dawson news. (Dawson, Ga.) 1889-current, 1925-07-28
sl6 HOGS THIS FALL IS
DEPARTMENT FORECAST
THE HIGH PRICES PREDICTED
PROBABLY WILL co7ORnN
SEPTEMBER, 1T is SA1D
FACTORS ARE POINTED OUT
Supply and Demand Conditions Stuff
Gent to Insure High Prices. First
Definite Price Forecast Ever Made
Bv Department of Agriculture.


Bv Department of Agriculture.
Sixteen or possibly seventeen-dollar
hogs this fall is forecast in pub
Gcation soon to be issued by the bu-
reau of agricultural economics OF the
Department of Agriculture.
These high prices are to come in
the early fall, probably about Septem-
Der. but may be a few weeks earlier
or later, according to ]. B. Ezekiel,
the economist in the department who
has made this study of hog prices and
supplies his special job.
This is the first time that the De-
partment of Agriculture has gone so
far as to make any definite price fore
casts on hogs or any other farm prod
net 1t marks a distinct departure and
is the beginning of a valuable service
TO farmers if experience proves these
forecasts to be as reliable as they now
seem.
Forecast Justified
For the last two years the depart
ment has foreseen higher priced hogs
in 1924Eand said so in several public
statements In a publication issued
last March the department pointed out
the factors on which hog prices de-
pend At that time this statement was
made:
BY estimating future hog supplies
and hog prices and forthcoming sup
plies. and estimating the future trend
of business conditions from the prices
OF industrial stocks, hog prices before
the war could have been forecast six
months in advance with high degree
OF accuracy"
The department went even further
last spring. It's published discussion
went over the different current con-
ditions to fit into the above formula
and concluded with this guarded state
ment:
Present supply and demand condi-
tons are sufficient to assure year OF
prices higher than in any recent period
except that of wartime imitation.
That was about as far as the more
conservative heads were willing to go
at that time.
On July IS the department again
reviewed the supply and demand fac
tors and came to this conclusion:
With these conditions it seems
highly probable that there will be a
further upward movement through
the late summer. The level of prices
next winter and spring will be higher
than during last winter.
The department heads now have de-
Cided to take the next step and midi
cate about what the price range Will
be. allowing a leeway OF less than one
cent and not tying themselves down
too definitely as to just what week or
weeks will see the peak OF an upward
or downward swing.
Chart to Be Made.
This forecast will take the form OF
chart or graph, with little discussion.
The chart will indicate that the Chi
cago price for fat hogs will rise to
$40 per hundred about September, 1t
is explained, however, that the date
cannot be set definitely; it depends
largely on how long the present rapid
movement of hogs to market keeps
up Following this high point marking
the scarcity peak, hog prices are ex-
pected to drop off to about $3.50 or
$l4 This low point will come when
the run of heavy hogs arrives next
winter, probably about January
Just how low the price goes at that
time will depend mainly on the size OF
the corn crop. With a big crop, as
seems likely, corn would be fairly
cheap and would pay big profit when
fed into hogs. Hogs would come to
market late and heavyy Mr.. Ezekiel
thinks.
Would Save Young Sows.
On the other hand, the good protlts
in hogs would cause large numbers
OF farmers to breed young sows rather
than slaughter them. This would tend
to keep down the immediate pork
supply.
Next spring hog prices are expect
ed to regain most or all Of their VIM
ter losses and again may approach. the
$40 peak, but the experts are unwilling
to set a definite figure much more than
SIX months in advance. The size OF the
tall pig crop and the price OF the new
corn crop would have to be CONSIDER
ed. 1t should be explained, too, that
these price figures are averages Tor
the month. The price may go cons1d-
erably higher or lower for few days.