Evening star., 1925-03-11
TAX REDUCTION UNCERTAIN

BY WILLIAM p. HELM, JR,

This proba bly, will be done, and then
we come to next year. Here we find
that the experts again are figuring on
good business conditions in 1925 as
an essential to tax reduction, for they
have put down 1891, ,0o0, 900 as the
prospective revenue from miscel-
laneous taxes during the fiscal year
beginning July 1 next. That raises
the amount expected this year by
about s65.000.000.
Thus, on the basis of better busi-
ness conditions in 1925, the Govern
ment will take in s50,000,00 addi-
tional in income taxes and $4,000, 900
additional in miscellaneous taxes Cat
present rates), or a total of $115,-
100000, as the experts see the future.
That $11o. 100000 is the backbone of
tax reduction. Break 1t, and the en-
tire hope of substantial tax reduction
m the near future languishes.
Would Mean a Setback.
In other words, If conditions in the
business world in 1925 are such that
the tax yield to the Federal Govern
ment, under the present rates, Is no
more than estimated for 1924 busi-
ness. S115.00O.000 of the estimated
surplus will have gone giimmering
and tax reduction will have been set
back by that amount
Experts have estimated the surplus
on the present years operations at
$67,000.000. 1t will hardly reach that
figure, for reasons to be discussed
later In fact, there is a better
chance that this fiscal years surplus
the difference between government
income and government expenses
Will be nearer $25,000,000 than $67 ,00O,- .
900. A decided letdown in income
tax collections next Monday may wipe
out this years anticipated surplus
altogether
Next years surplus is estimated by
the experts at s373.000,0o0. That is
based on. present tax rates. 1t does
not allow for any extensive or costly
legislation by Congress in addition to
the ordinary running expense If
congress, at the next session, spends
a lot OF money in addition, the esti-
mated surplus will be cut accordingly
To sum up. the experts have esti-
mated a surplus of sS7 900, 900 dur
ing this fiscal year and $s73, ,00o, 900
during the next fiscal year as the
prooaole outcome of governmental
operations until June 80, 1926. That
makes a total of $4,000, 900 Any
tax reduction must come out of that
surplus.
Experts Still Optimistic.
ana III the surplus Is materially re =
duced. tax reduction will suffer a
body blow. so far as the Immediate
future is concerned. If business tfts
year remains at a level that will pro.
duce only the sum to be paid the
Federal Government on last years
business, the surplus will be cut hy
Sis 100000. II the anticipated sur
plus for the present year Is wiped
out, the $4,000, 900 tax reduction
fund will be reduced by s67,000,000
more.
These Ifs" are not vague possi-
bilities. Nor. on the other hand. are
they pro Sabilities, as the Government
experts see the subject now. They
may come to pass: hey may not Tax
collections next Monday will furnish
the key to the prospect. Until then,
the collections can be studied. nobody
in authority can foretell whether the
present tax rates or lower rates will
be used in figuring out our returns
next year. 1:. -s - ,es's
Copyright, 1881 t-
1.-THE third and concluding article
by Mr. Helm to be published Friday,