Evening star., 1925-12-27

war with Germany TO escape disaster
Looking, then. to the coming year.
nothing is more clearly indicated than
a drawing together Of the several
European nations economically. 4
whole series of economic conferences
between several nations. perhaps ris
ing to the level of some fairly general
economic conference at Geneva. seems
likely. Political issues are well nigh
bound TO be subordinated to the eco
nomic for the simple reason that eco
nomic necessities have become impers
tive while the political differences
have become subsidiary.
That thing which is vaguely called
the spirit Of Locarno, that atmosphere
which has arrived and has enabled the
European statesmen to make the
present agreements which cover the
most inf1ammable of European ques-
uons, is not more than a tardy recog-
milton in Europe of the absolute com
munity of interest of continental ma
tions. of the we'll nigh equal menace
for all of a continuation of conditions
which have existed ever since the out
break of the World War.
While the political passions remain
ed AT fever heat nothing was possible.
New frontiers and new combinations
| of economic and industrial units par
| alyzed and disorganzed all the old
| European orga niZatio The old WAS
I swept away ana no new adjustment
was possible because of the survival
| of war suspicious and haueds. Re
| duced we'll nigh To a condition of
/ barter and trade for several wears,
! In many regions the most highly or
| sanized industrial and economic ter
! ritory in the world has been unable
| to undertake systematic or scientific
reorga MIA ton almost at the present
| hour.
Situation Transformed.
All this situation, however, has been
measurably transformed in the past
year. The dominant necessity of
! some form of economic adjustment
| coupled with the relative elimination
of political obstacles, has unmistaka
| bly, cleared the way for a new neriod
of European economic expansion.
/ Spurred on now by necessities more
insstent than ever. in cotemporary
history and at last with machinery
restored and domestic social barriers
! leveled, the nations of Europe are
/ entering upon period ot activity
! Europe is. in fact, out TO regain from
the United States much. if not all. of
the lost economic ground. and in Asia
and Africa seeks to recover its lost
political ground.
In the strictly European and po-
litical field we may expect that Ger
| many will enter the League of Na-
tions during the coming year and
that her presence there will tend 10
give Geneva more of the appearance
of a center of European cooperation.
| In reality. Of course. the important
negotiations between countries will he
conducted directly between capitals
and in utter disregard of the league
save as it may serve as the instru-
| ment for the execution Of decisions
already taken and the executor of
treaties already made. While It is
unlikely that Russia will take any
early step to join the league. relations
between it and the Geneva body may
presently have less unfriendly char
| acter.
A great deal of publicity already
| attends the prospect of an arms con-
ference, but most, if not all. of the
American and even the British eX-
pectation in that direction is, in my
! judgment, to say the least. prema
ture. Europe will not disarm or.
more exactly. reduce its armaments
as A result of any agreement such as
seemed to have been made at the
Washington conference. No Euro
/ pean state will permit any conference
to deal with its defense or he in any
degree the judge of the means neces-
/ sary for its security. Any arms con
ference which takes place now or for
/ a long time to come will resolve IT.
/ self at once into a discussion. not Of
disa armament. but of mutual defense.
! Question Of Security
Back of the whole continental con
ception of limitation OF armament
| lies that Of security as expressed in
! the protocol. Nations like France
and Poland. with relatively consider
| able armies, will only consent to re-
| duce these armies as they are salts
! fed that the dangers against which
! they have to guard are deCrea sed or
the nations interested in procuring
reduction armament will agree 10
! guarantee their security.
| Limitation of aVmaments is in real
/ ity proceeding at considerable pace
! in Europe. France. for example. IS
| reducing her term OF service with
! the colors from Is months to -.
which will diminish her army by
more than 100 900 in the current year
! But France will not agree to any re-
duction suggested by any outside
| body or country. She will not sur
render her sovereignty in this vital
| respect, save only as she obtains
the promise of the support of foreign
! divisions to replace these she has dis
! banded in case of emergency.
Europe is not going to approach
! peace by the pathway of disarna-
ment On the contrary. it is going
| to approach disarmament by the
| pathway of peace. Armies are dimin-
ishing in Europe because the pros
poets of peace are lettering, and this
process is very far from having
reached its limit. But despite all the
belief to the contrary in this country.
the league has not recently expanded
its moral or its material prestige and
there is not the smallest chance that
/ it will become in the new year, or in
any conceivable time. the super
state which might regulate and re-
duce armies and armed forces gen
orally.
The French army is maintained
against a presumptive German men
ace and a present colonial problem.
1t will be reduced as the German
menace seems 10 be diminished or a
the nations of Europe undertake CON
tracts to supply troops If France is
attacked by Germany. The colonial
army will be reduced only the
Syrian and Riffian dangers are ban
ished. Germany is far more likely in
the next decade to reconstitute a con
siderable army than is France to
adopt any form of actual disarma
ment.
Better Relations Seen.
Between France and Germany,
however, in the current year there
likely to be a very considerable i'm
provement of relations. Germany de
sires to obtain an anticipation of the
evacuation of German territory, which
would not legally be complete until
1885. France desires to obtain from
Germany some economic arrangement