The Monmouth inquirer. [volume] (Freehold, N.J.) 1865-1933, 1925-12-24
Stabilize Oats
Market Is Urged
Farmers Advised to Carry
Over More Product From
Large Crop Years.
(Frepared by the United States Department
of Agriculfure.l

sometimes sell q small crop of oats
for more money than they can sell a
large crop. This situation could be
changed by regularly carrying over
more oats from the large-crop years
to the small-crop years, says the
United States Department of Agricul-
ture. When a surplus is produced, a
large part of it is quickly used up, in
stead of being carried over to years
when the crop is small. Economists
In the Department of Agriculture have
figured out what the effect on the
gross value of our oat crops would
have been had producers followed the
example of Joseph in the land of
Egypt and saved up the surplus from
fat years to exc out the supply in
lean years
Could Have Saved Money.
1t is estimated that the producers
could have received S171.000000
or about nine cents a bushel
more on the carryoyer, by storing
SURPRISES and regulating their move
nient to market in the period from
1895 to 1913. This calculation is
based on the assumption that regu-
lated movement of the crop would
have eliminated extreme price fluc-
tuations apd caused the price to con-
form to the general trend. The gross
value of the oats consumed in the
United States from 1895 to 1918, on
the basis of the December l farm
prices, was $5,964, 100000. A policy
of carrying SURPRISES from years of
overproduction to years of relative
shortage, says the department, would
probably have increased this value
up. to $6,1350O0,000.
This finding is not offered as alb
solutely conclusive 1t is based on
estimates and leaves out of the reck-
oning such considerations as local
prices, differences due to grades, and
storage costs. Nevertheless, the study
is believed to indicate that there is
an economic basis for efforts TO dis
tribute the oat supply in a more order
ly manner. The popular view that
large crop may often be worth less
than small crop is confirmed. Four
large oat crops harvested in 1902,
1904, 1905 and 1906 had a value of
$69,000,000 less than that of four
small crops harvested in 1901. 1908,
1907 and 1908. Here is a clear in
dication that more uniform consump-
ton would have brought an increased
cash return.
Study of seasonal price trends bears
out this conclusion. 1t is shown by
the department that when the price
of oats at the beginning of the crop
year seems considerably above the
normal seasonal price for a crop Of
the size being harvested. it may be
expected to fall below the normal
seasonal price at the end of the crop
year. This is because the abnormally
high price early in the year reduces
consumption. Such reduced consump-
ton must be compensated by an ex-
ceptionally low price later on or part
of the crop will not be sold. A proper
ly adjusted price would be the same
throughout the season. except for
gradual advance to cover the cost of
storage. To maintain such a price
it would be necessary to have uni
form seasonal consumption through
out the season. In like manner uni
form consumption from year to year
is necessary to prevent extreme
price fluctuations when annual pro-
duction varies widely.
Normal Annual Price.
The department found that normal
annual price can be figured out for
oats on the basis of the United States
supply, because that supply is pro-
duced and mostly consumed within
the country. Exports Of oats from 1909
to 1918 and since the war have aver
aged not more than two per cent of
the crop Imports of oats have been
still smaller. On the other hand, in
the case of wheat, the price of which
is determined in the world market
it is not possible to assume normal
annual price based on American con-
ditions. The influence of the United
States crop on the price of wheat
at Chicago is measured by CO.
efficient Of only 0.32 whereas the in
fuence of the crop of the entire world
on the Chicago price is measured by
a coefficient of OIL
Thus wheat prices declined follow
ing the short United States crop of
1898 when world production was large.
On the other hand they arose after
short crops in the United States and
in the world In 1907, 1908 and 1911.
They declined in 1918 when the Unit
ed States had a normal crop and the
world crop was large. This is worth
bearing in mind by farmers who con-
template a shifting of acreages be-
tween wheat and oats. A change
which would affect wheat prices very
little might have big effect on the
price of oats because oats are sold in
narrower market.