The Washington times., 1925-11-18
ATURAT|ON IN
AUTO MARKET
SCOFFED
Dealer Says Industry = Sta
biIized and Reward
Is Assured
By JOSEPH TREW

This is the fifth OF a, series Of
interesting articles by Joseph Trew,
president OF the Trew Motor Com.
pany OF this city, giving veterans
Impressions of the antonotive I'M
dustry since its inception.
rs there q saturation point in the
production Of automobiles? Com
ceivably. yes; practically, no. That
point is nowhere in sight today.
It never has been reached, al
though the industry on one or two
occasions has approached sperilOugly
close to 1t. But that was In other
days when demand had not yet
been established; when to certain
extent, there was justification III
speaking Of the automobile game.
Today the production Of motor cars
and stable.
All business Is based ON expecta.
ton. Life insurance companies, IN
particular, have reduced expect0.
ton and ultimate realization to .
science.
Law Of Compensation.
The law of compensation operates
surely and positively for them. and
they know exactly what to expect
Of certain number Of cases over.
q given period Of time. With al
most the same degree Of certainty
1t is now possible FOR automobile
manufacturers to accurately csti-
mate future demand, and to govern
production accordingly. Therefore.
while the annual production Of
automobiles may seem enormous. II
should be remembered that the
industry is no longer working In
the dark.
Curiously enough the motor car
Is about the only commodity men
toned when pessimists discuss the
saturatiOn point. 1t could be dis
cussed with equal propriety with
reference to the dress-siiit business,
the output Of diamonds. or any
other staple article Of commerce.
As q matter Of fact there ii be.
lieved to be much greater supply
or diamonds than the world viii
absorb In many years, but the In.
dustry IL wisely controlled and has
never been flooded to an extent to
disturb equilibrium.
Decrease Justified.
"A similar situation exists with
reference to the motor car industry.
Only the official figures are re-
CURED to offset the gloomy pre-
dictions that disaster, due to an
reproduction Is imminent. Had
wise conservation been lacking
after the record year Of 1928, when
4,O06, 907 passenger cars and trucks
were produced. there would GER
tainly have beep increased total for
last year. on the contrary, the
output for 1924 was reduced to 81
SIT 500 cars for the sole reason that
the outlook justified q decrease
rather than an increase.
Exactly the same was the case In
1921 when the industry reduced its
output OF the preceding year by
half million cars.
Ignoring entirely the factor OF In
crease in population, representing q
corresponding increase in the mum.
Der Of potential car buyers, replace
ment alone could justify the motor
car production Of the last few
years. The percentage Of motorists
who quit using cars IL almost
negligible With approximately H..
600 900 motor cars in use and 10.
placements on a five.year basis, o
minimum yearly demand for three
and a half million cars may be
confidently expected.
There can be no comparison be.
tween the motor car and bicycle
industries, though that was one Of
the arguments used by the pessi.
mists years ago when the speedy
arrival at the saturation point was
regularly predicted. The motor car
is today an indispensable utility,
and the saturation point seems az
far away as Saturn.