Evening star., 1925-09-15

financial improvement very marked
indeed. 1t has resulted In high priced
automobiles standing before rows OF
squalid tenements. There Is no ques
tion but that bootleggers have pros
pered, whatever may have been the
fate of their neighbors.
In his health statistics Rev. john
son relies more on deaths from cir
rhosis of the liver than from alco-
holiSm. These are due to prolonged
drinking rather than to a single spree
on poison liquor. Here he finds that
the upgrade curve in the past two
years has not been SO marked.
Rev. Johnson says:
Much has been said of the falling
death rate during the last few years
as an evidence Of the effect of prohi-
bition. 1t is true that this decline
and the increased expectation Of life
have greatly impressed insurance ac-
tuaries. but one cannot with certainty
assign to the prohibition regime more
than moderate influence in bringing
about the reduction. The trend down
ward has been distinctly greater
among the Metropolitan Life Insur-
ance Co.'S industrial policy holders
Than in the country as a whole, and
among these intemperance is presum-
ably much less prominent factor.
The company attributes much of the
gain to health education, and there Is
reason to belseve that the same cause
has operated on large scale through
out the country. One of the authori-
ties consulted in this connection points
out that similar Improvement has oc-
CURED in countries where prohibition
has not been attempted.
1T is probable. however, that wher-
ever there has been an Improvement
in economic status, a feature Of the
prohibition regime which we shall
presently notice, the tendency Is to-
ward a higher standard OF living and
thus. naturally. toward improved
health and increasing longevity.
Doubts Savings Argument
We come now to the economic re-
suits of prohibition. concerning which
it must be said that they are among
the most significant in the series and
yet the hardest to measure. Probably
no careful observer will say that the
abolition Of the saloon has not ef
fected a very substantial ameliora-
ton of large numbers of the working
class. The virtual stoppage of beer
drinking alone on the part of millions
of workingmen might be assumed, even
without any considerable evidence, to
economic status of their families. At
the same time the appeal to specific
economic data-increaSed business ac-
tivity. growing bank deposits. etc.-to
prove the effects of prohibition must
be made very guardedly. All attempts
to measure this increase in quantita-
tive terms are fraught whit danger be-
cause of the great increase in pros
perity since 1921. due to other causes.
The argument most frequently ad-
vanced is that the continuing increase
of savings bank deposits in 1920-21 as
compared, e. e., with 1914. the next
preceding period OF depression, indi-
Gates a marked increase in saving
due to prohibition. The outlawing OF
the liquor traffic must indeed have
been an influential factor here, but
the fact remains that savings deposits
as reported by the American Bankers
Association show fairly continuous
movement since 1918, while, II allow
ance be made for wage advances in
1920 and 1921 on account of the in
creased cost Of living, it is doubtful if
any great change can be shown stats
tically.
I'm addition to the increase in
money wages we must consider the
extensive thrift campaigns carried on
throughout the country resulting in
larger savings and a larger number
of savers; the populariZing of con-
servative investments and the tend
ency in periods of depression to put
money in the bank rather than to buy
securities on a falling market; the re-
lease of savings for deposit when the
liberty loan campaigns ceased: in
crease in money circulation during the
imitation" period, and other, more
technical considerations. But it would
be idle to dispute the assumption that
prohibition has been a factor, and an
important one, in keeping savings de-
posits on a high level. Improvement
in premium collections from industrial
life insurance policyholders points in
the same direction. The disappear
ance of the saloon and the treating
habit has undoubtedly been a great
material boon to the American work.
ingman.
Business Leaders Vote wet"
Good authority can also be found
for the statement that industry has
profited very materially through
heightened morale Were IL not for
the fact that prohibition has become
for personal and political reasons so
explosive an issue we should very
likely before this time have been able
to secure an adequate study of its
economic effects. Orga Of
business men and employers seem to
be afraid to take UP the question for
study because it is so highly contro-
versial.
1T is noteworthy that a question.
naire sent as part of this investiga-
tion to a thousand or more business
men. directors in important corpora
tions selected at random, asking for
their verdict as business men upon
prohibition. yielded a predominantly
wet result--not, apparently, so much
because of observed effects upon bust
ness or industry as because Of strong
personal prejudice and dissatisfaction
with the social and political results of
prohibition as they saw them"
nEDT EknTnv nF nFIAAA AHA