Evening star., 1925-03-11
ARTICLE ii.


Unless business conditions generally
through the United States show an
Improvement in 1925 over 1924, no
substantial income tax reduction will
be justified. SO say the Government
experts in their forecast. Their care
fully prepared figures show that they
are counting on receipts of $780,
100000 from the income tax during
the present fiscal year. which ends
June 80, next, and receipts of S1,710,-
100000 during the next fiscal year
which ends June so, 1925.
Income tax reduction is based on
that expectation and that, in turn. is
based on the present rates. Obviously
there cannot be a pickup of $50, 900, 600
in taxes unless there is a correspond
ing pickup in incomes and profits.
And that, again, means only one thing
better business condition this year
than last
Thus, in taxation, as in the cost of
living, we have another illustration
of what economists term the vicious
spiral. Income tax reduction de-
pends largely on better business and
better business depends largely on
income tax reduction. 1t is the old
question all over again: which came
first, the chicken or the egg?
Returns to Tell Story.
Next Mondays collections of in
come taxes viii tell the experts what
they are waitiI g eagerly to find out
about 1924 business. More than that,
however, the returns also will show
the business trend and will furnish
the experts fairly ineligible clue
as to what may be expected in tax
collections in March, 1926. How they
puzzle this out is one of the secrets
- he 81 hair T,-ao tyxr
expert; but they do it and have been
doing it, with a fair degree of ac-
curacy, for several years.
Emergencies are barred from the
estimate outlined above. An unex-
pected business slump or a sudden
and unlooked-for trade revival will
upset the calculation. As there are
contingencies which cannot be fore
seen, they are left out of the reck-
oning.
Thus far during the fiscal year, or
since July 1, 1924, income tax collec-
tions have totaled about $3.50, 900 900.
Between now and June 80, the inter-
nal revenue bureau must take in
$500, 900, 900 additional II the experts
estimate is to stand up. OF that
amount, about $3.50 000,0 600 is what is
expected next Monday The remain
ing $350.000,000 should come along on
June 10, Wnen the second inStallment
is due.
There are other things. too. that
bear directly on the prospect of an
other income tax reduction. One of
these is the tariff. The experts have
put it down in their calculations for
$3.50 100000 in revenue this fiscal
year. Thus far it has yielded approx
mately $375,000,000. 1t looks as if
the tariff would uphold the experts
estimates almost to the dollar. If so.
another hurdle will have been safely
put behind; If not. the brake will have
been applied, to the extent of the
deficiency, to tax reduction.
Miscellaneous Revenues.
A third item that has a direct bear
ing ON income tax reduction is the
grand accumulation of assorted and
miscellaneous taxes grouped under
the heading, miscellaneous internal
revenue Income from those varied
taxes totaled s953, 100000 last year.
The experts put those taxes down for
26,000,800 this year Thus far, col
ectfons have totaled about s5S0,e80,-
000 More than eight months of the
fiscal year have passed. during the
four months or less that remain, the
Government must collect $246,0O0, 200
more in those taxes