Evening star., 1925-01-09
GREAT CARE URGED
IN AUTO INDUSTRY
Makers to Guard Against Too
Heavy 0utput-Expect
Very Large 1925 Sales.
BY J. &. RolLE.

Erea test danger to the automobile in
dustry today lies with overopt!misnl.
That is the consensus OF opinion OF
executives of leading companies here
for the New York automobile show
now in progress. Bookings OF bust
ness at the show already have been
heavy but the feeling that the in
dustry is entering the coming year
under better conditions than have OBJ
tanned for some years is based more
especially on sales in October, No
vember and December.
Primarily, the New York automo-
bile show is not sales show. Rather
1t is the Easter parade of the auto
mobile styles and a meeting place
where manufacturer and dealer can
meet, give mutual information on
conditions and the trend of business.
and come to a better understanding.
The information that the dealers are
giving the manufacturers this year
is even more encouraging than the
recent sales By companies which
have placed new models on the mar
ket.
Saturation Point Far or.
All agree that the point OF satura-
ton in America still Is as far off as
the end OF the rainbow. Until there
Is an automobile for every other per-
son. that point will not be ap-
preached, according to one maun-
facturer. The coming year VIII see
at least 1000. 900 cars bought for re-
placement purposes. The volume OF
prospective new customers seems
likely TO exceed 100000.
But-and this Is the danger OF over
optimism-iT manufacturers load
the mselves and their dealers up with
a huge volume of cars which won't
move into the hands OF customers
disaster is sure to result. That mis-
take was made in the first three
months OF 1924, and the necessity or
accumulated stocks OF uh-
sold cars throughout the remainder
OF the year cost some companies mil
lions which might have been saved II
the output had been kept close to con-
sumner demand.
VIII watch Output.
The more prominent manufacturers
have sworn a solemn oath not TO
make that mistake again, and there
is little likelihood they Will do so, but
the dealer who "bitos off more than
ne can chew" Is also likely to be
victim of overoptimisn. Nevertheless
the production sch hedules OF most OF
the prominent companies are mate
rally larger now than they have been
In recent months. The Hudson Motor
Car Co.'S January schedule Is higher
than for any month of 1874 Wnen
record business was done rms
months production has been set at
1850 cars. IT is the plan to shove
this up to 1900 in February and
20,400 in March.
For the last three months deliver
les OF automobiles to consumers have
been at a fairly stable level, accord
ing to General Motors officials. Whole
deliveries to consumers by this COM
pany were at the rate of 500 We
hicles year in the early Winter
while factory sales were only at the
rate of 297 900. The reverse was true
year ago, when dealers were load
ing themselves up in anticipation of
a Spring demand which did not even
tuate.
May Rnise Payments
The Ford Company has resumed op-
erations after inventory at the rate
of 10000 cars and trucks a month,
and pay rolls at other Detroit fac
tories undoubtedly will show a steady
increase for the next few weeks. Ar
rangements have been made TO finance
dealers on a more stable basis this
year and the volume OF used cars
on hand while still a problem, is
much nearer solution than at any
time in the last six months. The al
legged danger 10 business conditions
and individuals from heavy buying
of automobiles on the partlal-pay-
ment plan has been pretty thoroughly
While such transactions
will continue heavy, it is probable
that initial payments will be larger
and time of payments somewhat less In
most sections of the country.
Closed Models Gain Favor.
One notable trend in the New York
show is the move toward reduc-
ing the cost of closed vehicles
closer to that of the open models.
Price advances and price reductions
both have been made by some COM
panies, but these have sufficed rather
to take the product into A different
price field than to mark any definite
general trend IN costs of production.
Undoubt edly considerable stimulus is
anticipated from the announcement of
certain new engine and body models.
Makers OF four-cylinder cars have
ventured into the field of straight
eiEhts, and makers OF eightS have
turned out some slx-cylinder models.
but in general the moves have been
in the nature OF refinements rather
than In changes of engineering prin-
ciples.