Evening star., 1925-04-24
H|NDENBURG VOTE
/ WATCHED IN PARIS
viii Supply Basis for Esti-
mating Purpose of Ger
man People.
BY FRANK II. SIMONDs.

PARIS, April 24.-While it would
be idle to deny that the nomination
of Hindenburg for the presidency of
the German Reich has awakened
certain measure of apprehension and
his election would have consequences
almost beyond calculation, Paris con-
tinues to believe that, on balance,
Marx, the choice of the republican
parties. of the So-called Weimar
bloc. will in the end prevail. What
is actually most interesting from the
French point of view, assuming the
Hindenburg defeat, is the size of
his vote, for this will supply a basis
for estimating German purposes for
many day to come; the greater
the Hindenburg vote, the greater the
French anxiety for the future.
The assumption that Hindenburg
will be defeated is based upon va
riety of reasons, but il is always
qualified by the frank assertion that
the German situation is too complex
to permit exact appraisal. In the
first place, the belief rests upon the
fact that in all elections since the
creation of the republic the three
republican parties, Socialist. Demo-
cratic and Center, have, combined,
polled more votes than all their op-
ponentS added together, while now.
as in the past, the Communists Will
vote separately from the Nationalist
Peoples party combination, which IS
known as the Reich bloc.
Doubt Loyalty of Party.
In the second place. despite it's pub
lie professions, the mass of observ-
ers in and out of Germany doubt the
loyalty of the Peoples party to the
Hindenburg candidacy. The Peoples
party is controlled by the industrial
lists, it has, therefore, a larger inter
est in foreign relations than any other
party. Those great industrial leaders
all recognize the need for foreign loans
and the probability that loans would
be unavailable were there to be re-
dictionary triumph in the present cam
paign.
Despite all outward appearances,
the alliance beIWe the true reac-
tionaries, the German Nationalist
party and the Peoples party, is not
founded upon monarchial, but eco
nomic consideration; questions of tar
ifs rather than thrones unite these
two organizations and there is GER
tainly a degree of republican senti-
ment in the Peoples party. Were 1t
certain, however, that the restoration
of the monarchy, following linden
burg's election, would bring better
business and equally advanta geous
prospects for loans. the ma ajority of
the Peoples party would probably
prefer the monarchy.
Given a situation in which business
probably would be much worse as
consequence of domestic unrest and of
n failure of foreign loans, however,
Civen the moral certainty of a pro-
longation of the French occupation
e Rhineland. which adjoins the
Ruhr, the center of German in
uustry, IL is hard to see how the cleo
tion of Hindenburg can promise the
Peoples party leaders anything but
undesirable disturbance, leading per-
haps to new disaster.
Recovery Is Beginning.
German recovery is beginning. 1t
is by no means making as rapid prog
ress as has been reported and fore
cast. Moreover, if it is to continue,
peace at home and abroad is the pri-
mary requisite-and the election of
Hindenburg would compromise peace
both within and without German from
tiers. That is why the coolest observ-
ers, both in Paris and in Europe gen,
orally. believe that Marx will win, per
haps by a decisive majority.
OF course, it is plain that a junker
triumph-and the election of linden
burg would mean this-would bring to
a prompt close all the elaborate pro
posals made by the German govern
ment for security pacts. With a pat
emily republican Germany, the west
ern powers, and France in particular
might consider the matter of more OF
less voluntary arrangements, but al
the Luther -Stresemann. or, to give II
the more familiar name, the StreSe
mann-D'Albernon undertakings to pro
vide German guarantees for the west
ern frontiers would disappear in the
scrap heap on the promise of return
of the monarchy.
Actually, it is hard not to believe
that the real reactionaries have beer
guilty of a blunder which shows pretty