Evening star., 1925-09-06
HIT BY PREPARATION SLUMP.
FRANCE SHIRKS BURDEN
German Payments Disappointng-Cail-
laux Maneuvers Into Stand on Debt
That May Put U. S. in Bad Light.


or decline to yield TO our insistence.
The other way out of the impasse
would be to inquire of the British
whether they would consent to a
Franco-American agreement even if
it gave the United States better terms
than Britain had obtained from
France. The answer to this would be
an inevitable negative, for the British
public is resolved that it shall not fare
worse than the United States. A
deadlock would necessarily ensue and
CaillauX would have to go home. But
his situation-the situation of France
would be improved, since France
woull be in the position not only of
offering to pay her debts up to her
capacity for payment, but also of
offering to pay the United States on
basis which had been recognized by
Britain as fair.
1t requires no profound insight to
discover how intensely unpopular the
American attitude would then become.
The British, who are paying us, would
indict us not alone for delaying settle
ment and preventing French payments
to Britain, but also for seeking to get
better terms from France than Britain
had obtained, while the French would
resent our course, since it not alone
demanded larger payments than they
felt able 10 make us. but also by indi
rection destroyed what would other
wise be a favorable settlement with
Britain.
Alternative Dangerous.
There is, of course, further posi-
bility. Our Government might seek to
combine the financial with the political
questions, and ask that France, in re-
turn for generous terms in the matter
of the debt, should consent to attend
new arms conference and to make
material concessions there to the
American point of view. But this is
an excessively dangerous maneuver
and might have dangerous conse-
quences, for the French are not likely
TO regard an American acceptance of
the British scale of settlement as rep
reSenting concession on our part so
much as a sacrifice on theirs, since
they are to pay the costs. Our debt
commission is. however. put in a very
difficult situation, for it is expressly
forbidden by law to accept more un-
favorable terms than were granted to
the British. 1t is true it has trans
gressed this statute in the Belgian
case, but the Belgian debt was small
and the circumstances extraordinary.
Actually, British diplomacy has put
everybody in an uncomfortab BILE posi-
ton while providing an answer to any
conceivable criticism. 1t has agreed
to reductions which go far beyond the
expectation of the British public, but
only if il be demonstrated that Amer
lea can get no better terms If we
accept the same basis, then it will be
regarded in London as proof that this
is in reality the maximum of posi-
bility. The man in the street may
grumble, but he will have no case.
NJ Caillaux has succeeded in obtain
ing very great concessions from the
British, but only at the price of going
and obtaining the same concessions
from the Americans. And if we de-
cline. our refusal will wipe out the
British yielding and put all the re-
sponsibility upon us. We shall then
be in the charming situa ton of pre-
venting the British from being gener-
Gus. On the other hand, if NJ Gail
lauX gets his concession from us, then
the British will have the credit abroad
for having obtained American conces-
sions for France. and presumably for
Italy, and at the same time will begin
to profit by payments just as soon as
we do ourselves.
German Payments Small.
As for the United States. British
diplomacy has already saddled it with
the unhappy responsibility for any
debt payment. since the British are
basing all their demands upon their
debtors solely upon our demand upon
them. Now, having prevented the
British from letting their debtors go
Scot-free, we may either cut our own
claims in half or assume responsibility
for preventing the British from MAX
ing this same reduction.
About the only thing which the Brit
ish move leaves us free to do is to
give France better terms than we
gave Britain without arousing British
protest. In the premises. if we only
ask France to pay at the rate she is to
pay Britain, there is no room left for
British protest against unequal treat
ment. But this is in reality only per
mission to take less than we hoped to
get, less than most of US expected con-
fidently to get, for the debt expecta-
TONS have been extraordinary in this
country.
Meantime, Italy, still in the back
ground, expects to get better terms
than France, both from Britain and
from the United States, and is prett--
sure to be successful in London. If
we agree to reduce the French paw
ments to per cent instead of per
cent, the Italians are fairly certain
to propose to pay the British not more
than per cent. if they go that far.
and If the British accept these terms
II VIII be again on the Same condition
that we do likewise
One circumstance which has greatly
influenced the British action is Ger
tafnly the declining value placed upon
German reparations. In theory the
Germans are to pay anything UP TO
S6OO,OOO,O00 annually. If they paid
this sum, the British share would be
Sl32 100000, and a French payment of
$50, ,O0O.0 600 would cover British pay
ments to the United States, even il
Italy paid nothing. But the British
are satisfied that the Germans will not
pay $500 100000 annually, and that
probably they will not pay half this
sum. The current figure now, in eX-
pert estimates, is around $3.50, 900 900.
and this would give the British but
500. 200 600 year, against $1S4, 100000
which they have to pay to u.s. The
French share would be $3.50, 900, 900,
which would just about cover a per
cent payment to Britain and the
United States and leave them nothing
to help pay a $4,000 900 600 debt in
CURED in rebuilding their own ruins.
Italy Hard Hit.
If the Germans should pay only
S250,000.000 annually. then we should
in practice get it all. either directly or
indirectly. The Italian percentage in
reparations is so small, moreover, that
were German payments to fall torthis
figure, Italy would get no more than
SIS. .000, 900, while even on per cent
basis her payments to the United
States and Great Britain would aggre-
gate $100, ,000, 900. And in this situa-
ton, while Britain was getting the
larger share of her debt payment from
Germany, France and Italy, and
France was getting hers from Ger
many, Italy. the weakest nation finan-
cially, would be called upon to make