Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1924-03-29
"a COTTON SEASON
WILL OPEN UNDER
FAMINE CONDITION

c. B. Howard, general sales man
ager of the American Cotton Grow
ers Exchange, with offices in At
lanta, has written a review of the
| cotton situation lin view of the
| present .unwarranted attack on cot
ton values which The Journal re-
produces, as follows:
The bearish hysteria of the cot
ton market in the recent past is, in
view of world conditions, incompre
| hensible except upon a psychological
basis.
Briefly, the facts are that Amer.
| lean growth is about 400, 900 in eX
cess of last year, other countries
probably less than last season, a
worlds production about the same
as last year, or a supply this season
| two or three millions less than last
season. Prices now three cents be
| low same date last year and new
crop also cheaper. AT the begin
ming of last season India and China
| had large stocks of goods. These
have been consumed and they are
again buying from mills. Various
governments had stocks of war
| goods, duck, etc, which have now
| been sold and consumed. The world s
| trade and buying power is on d far
! higher plane than the commence
ment of last season. Not only is
greater business being done here at
home, but Argentina. Brazil, Chile,
| Cuba, the Far East and Europe it.
/ in fa q n
at that time. More cotton goods are
being sold over the counter and be
| ing used for Industrial purposes than
| for several years. Even if Mr.. Hoo,
Ver's special committee makes no
| changes in the census carry-OVer
| and we accept it as correct, every
one knows that there must come
| a tremendous increase in curtail.
ment or shutting down of mills be
! fore new crops are available in or
| der to bring consumption within
| the limits of supply.
| No Surplus in Sight
Surely the trade can not have
forgotten so quickly the object les
son of this season-an acreage of
| thirty eight million producing only
slightly over ten million bales of
| cotton. What would ten million
mean next season or twelve million?
| We will have no surplus the end of
| this season to fall back upon as we
| have had in the past and world con-
| ditions continue to improve and will
| continue to improve 1t is just as
sure that trade will work upward
! toward it's normal as that water
will seek its level. Suppose Euro
pean difficulties should. be adjusted
| shortly, and it is only matter OF
| time-probably a short time now,
when they will be.
| I'VE know that foreign mills have
negligible stocks of cotton, that con-
| ditions have forced them to buy in
a hand to-mouth way. that German
mills for some weeks have been run
| ming full, some at night, and sell
| ing most of their production to their
own people When the International
Federation of Master Spinners is
sues it's report on consumption of
| foreign spinners, it will likely sur
prise many who have not thought
much of what has become of our
large exports, nearly 100000 bales
| in excess of last season, and which
| still continue heavy. The American
mill stock March 1 was 440, 900 bales
| below same date last year and yet
| their percentage of curtailment is
| small.
Methods of selling goods have
changed. Distributors no longer
carry the heavy stocks they for
merly did and for months they have
bought even these lighter stocks in
a hand-to.m mouth way. but must buy
more frequently. There has been
and will be no buyers strike of the
ultimate consumer so long as bust
ness is good and he has the money
to supply his wants. He is still buy
ing and distributors are certain to
supply him.
Bears to Blame
"All of these admitted facts are
temporarily lost sight of and are
without present effect. Powerful
bears have pounded the market and
issued bearish propaganda until
they have created a ~distrust and
loss in faith in values, obscured and
put in the background the funda-
mentally bullish conditions ana
caused converters, wholesalers ana
retailers, and consequently mllls' 10
anticipate lower prices, ana refrain
from buying as long as possible anu
in as limited degree as posslple. All
of this. however, renders the sltud
ton increasingly acute. we may
compress steam, but something Is
liable to happen when the pressure
becomes too great.
what this years acreage may De
is. of course, yet unknown. some
sections may increase but there Is
little doubt that some of the oldef
states which had large acreage last
wear and small production, Will plant
less.
There is very little ~otton left
in first hands. Into sight 1lSufes
indicate this. Most of the cotton
not vet in sight is at the scores OF
uncounted compress towns owned by
cotton merchants and hedges sold
AGAINST same. Mills have sold cot
ton hedges against stocks of manu-
featured goods. When this cotton
and these goods are sold the owners
must buy contract hedges. There
will be no one except speculative
short seller to supply this buying
demand.
Don't Follow the Crowd
"Our southern spectators too fire.
quently follow the crowd and get
nipped in the process. / wish to
warn them to think twice before
selling short under present and pros
pectivc conditions.
I'VE are on the verge of a situa-
ton which has never existed in the
lifetime of any business man of to-
day. We will begin next season I'M
! der practically famine conditions