The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-06-21

FEC. FoRBESi thought ih he Was. s
 I don't pretend to be an authority on the subject of building, but l have been making it my business lately to keep my eyes and ears open. and l have formed the definite opinion that the bloom is off the rye.
 Yesterday I motored over a large part of Long Island, sizing up the amount of building going on and the number of For Sale" and "To Let" signs. What l saw only tended to con- firm the impression l had already formed.
 Last week l visited a friend in the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. Walk ing from his home to the subway, along street of houses renting from perhaps $60 to $S5 month, we re- marked upon the fact that almost every second building carried a sign, Apartment to Let" I have lately mo- ticed an increase in the number of va cant business buildings and apartment houses in New York city.
 Across in Jersey it has become defi- nitely harder to dispose of the multi tude of new homes which have been rushed up there.
 Conditions today certainly are very different than what they were two years ago when there was something resembling housing famine.
 One concern that furnishes many, many millions of money for new build 1ngs has decided to pull in sail. It is convinced that the long period of fe- verish activity is nearing its end. True, the volume of permits being is- sued in New York, in Chicago, in De- troit, in Cleveland, in Baltimore, in Seattle and some other cities, is still extraordinarily large. But this fact only tends to make those who finance buildings more conservative.
 In certain other cities, including Philadelphia. Los Angeles, Boston, Mil waukee, Providence and Minneapolis, the latest returns show decreases as compared with year ago.
 While disclaiming any prophetic vision, my guess is that both building activity and prices of most building materials will taper off in coming months, although the movement possi- ply may not become marked until we enter next year.
 But next year, if not sooner, I look for very decided change in the con- dition of the building industry.
 Last month the National Association of Real Estate Boards, with headquar- ters in Chicago, issued its semi-annual survey of the real estate market, based 'a6n replies received from 229 boards. Here are the chief conclusions "clearly indicated in the answers to the ques- t-onnaires," the association reports:
 II. The real estate market, except in isolated cases, manifests a satisfac- tory degree of activity. In many in stances 'the market is reported more active than last year, but a consider able majority report that the market is the same as last year or not quite so active. In other words, the real es- tate market is becoming more and more normal
 ''2. Residential rents have clearly passed the peak as whole and are being stabilized at present levels.
 B. Further inroads are reported on the shortage of structures. This is an- other indication of approach to a nor nal market condition.
 A. For the most part money for the development of real estate is plentiful, but investors and lending are main taining an attitude of caution and se- verity. particularly toward speculat tive enterprises.
 "5 The labor situation in the build ing trades is becoming more and more satisfactory"
 We all know that the building pace has been rapid. as indeed, it needed to be to mitigate the terrible shortage which followed the war Just how rapid the pace has been in New York City may be gathered from the fact that in Greater New York the plans filed for the first five months of this year approximated the half billion dol lar mark for the first time in the his tory of this or any other city. A year ago the total for the five months was 37O,0OO.000. The increase this year equals 33 per cent over 1923. and no less than T2 per cent over 1922.
 One very homely truth it is we'll never to forget is that the abnormal rarely lasts long, Just as the corpus cles in our blood rush to heal wound. so all the economic forces of the world rush to cure an abnormal condition. When the price of any commodity or material rises to abnormal heights, pro- cesses immediately are set in motion to correct the situation.
 Building wages and building costs have been and still are out of line with other wages and other costs. They are not likely to stay out of line very much longer.