Evening star., 1924-10-04
JAPANESE QUESTION
D|MS DAVIS HOPES
TO WIN CALIFORNIA
Issue Gives Rivals Whip
hand Just as Victory Seem
ed Within Grasp.
LA Toilette SEEN SURE
OF 35 ELECTORAL VOTES
Northwest Survey Gives President
Best Chance in Three of
Seven States.
BY 6. GOULD LINCOLN.
staff Correspondent of The Star.

staff Correspondent of The Star.
ASHLAND. Ore, October Ger
route to California; Just when the
Democrats are striving in California
to hold all their forces in line so thai
they may squeeze through a winner
along comes the Japanese question
to raise trouble for them. Both the
Coolidge and the La Toilette leaders
and newspapers are making the most
out of Japans stubborn insistance al
Geneva that the immigration ques-
ton, if it threatens war, should be
held an issue in which the League OF
Nations could not interfere. That is
putting it roughly, but it is the in
terpretation placed on the attitude OF
Japan in these parts. With John w
Davis pledging himself TO do all in
his power to bring about adherence
OF the United States to the league
this latest development is decidedly
not helpful to the Democratic cause
in the Pacific Coast States.
A survey of conditions in the So
called La Toilette belt, running from
Wisconsin to Washington and ore
gon, during the last two weeks leads
to the following conclusions: First
Wisconsin, the DakotaS, both Nor tn
and South, and Minnesota seem rea-
sonably sure for the Progressive
ticket.
May Get 81 Votes.
Washington, Montana and Oregon
on the other hand, are leaning now
toward the Republicans. SO far the
national ticket is concerned. Should
the division fall along these lines d
month from today when the voters
go to the polls La Toilette would re-
ceive So electoral votes and Coolidge
16 out of these seven States. Should
all of these States give their votes to
La Toilette he would have 81 cleo
toral votes That might be sufficient
or it might not be sufficient, to bring
about a deadlock in the electoral col
lege and so throw the choice of a
Chief Executive into Congress, de-
pending on the outcome in this sec
ton.
When the country split three ways
politically in 1912 none of these seven
States was found in the Republican
column for Taft. Four of them, Wis
consin North Dakota, Montana and
Oregon, cast their electoral votes for
the Democratic nominee, Woodrow
Wilson. and three of them, Minnesota
South Dakota and Washington, were
counted for Roosevelt. Emphasizing
the difference between the Roosevelt
progressive movement and that now
led by La Toilette and Wheeler, none
of these States today are expected to
fall into the Democratic column. This
because the La Toilette Wheeler
movement is cutting into the Demo
cratic forces as well as into those OF
the Republicans.
Real Drive to Come.
In the month intervening before
election day the real intensive part
of the campaign is to be carried on.
The campaign may cause swinging
one way or another of the pendu-
lum as political sentiment veers.
Leaders in all the parties say that
they are having great difficulty find
ing out just how the people are 60
ing to vote.
La Toilette leaders in this part of
the country are taking heart at the
recent outbreak of Senator Brook
hart of Iowa against the Repub-
lican vice presidential nominee, Gen.
Dawes. They expect him to work
in the open hereafter for La Follette's S
candidacy. On the other hand, Re-
publicans say that Brookhart has
been against the Republican national
ticket for months; that he has given
aid and comfort to the La Toilette
campaign, though not openly, and
that. so far as the campaign in Iowa
is concerned, Brookharts open ad-
yocacy of the La Toilette movement
would have little adverse effect. AS
a matter of fact, they are hoping that
II may drive the Republicans more
firmly into line in that State and win
over conservative Democrats to the
Coolidge ticket
Clarifies Dawes Case.
One thing, however, to which
Brookhart's outburst gives additional
color is the frequently heard state
ments in some of the Northwestern
States that Dawes is not helping the
Republican ticket. In South Dakota
for example, where Dawes had been
to make addresses, this was the com
ment in a number of quarters. On
the other hand, it is Dawes who first
emphasized the Constitution and the
courts as the big issue of the cam
paign, the issue on which the Re
publicans are depending to a very
large extent to carry them through
What effect Brookhart's attack upon
Dawes will have outside of Iowa is a
different question. Admitting that
the same forces in Iowa, to a very
large extent, which have been sup
porting Brookhart. are those support
ing La Toilette, it may be that the
situation in Iowa will be little chang
ed. Of course, Brookhart may give
the needed support, which would
carry the State for La Toilette. Blu,
what of California, for example
where the La Toilette forces are
strong; where many people have been
aroused by the action of the courts
in denying the La Toilette electors
a place on the ballot and compe llins
him to run as a Socialist candidate
where Hiram Johnson and many OF
his friends are aloof from the Repub-
Iican campaign and some of them
are working for La Toilette?
Next to the presidential importance
from a national point of view in
these Northwestern States are the
Continued on Page II. Column e.