Evening star., 1924-06-07
BY STUART p. WEST.

special Dispatch t0-1he star.
NEW YORK, June Tn the week
just over, Wall street has passed
through contrary moods. Temporar-
lily it felt cheerful when the Presi-
dent signed the tax-reduction bill,
even though this was far below the
hopes of six months ago. Then the
depressing character of the trade
reports commenced to weigh upon
sentiment, and stocks representing
the large industrial corporations de-
clined.
Two impressions have been gained
from recent happenings. One is that
the markets are looking upon the
Coming presidential campaign with
more assurance than they were a
while ago. The other is that the COM
mon idea of the extent of the trade
reaction has been falling consider
ably short of the actual facts as
shown in current data.
Railway Issue Campaign Factor.
Everybody knows that the rail-
way issue is to be live one be-
fore the voters The candidate who
will have the largest support, at least
on the first ballots at the Democratic
convention, Is known to De unfrlehu-
ly to the present transportation ACT,
and would be in favor OF its amend
ment or repeal. regardless OF now
this would affect the interests OF ral !
way security owners. Should La Fol-
lette carry enough OF the nofth-
western states to throw the electloH
into the House of Representatives
and obtain the balance OF power, one
fNt
would give his aid in the choice or
President undoubtedly would be that
the successful candidate favor a raol-
cal railroad policy.
Confident Radicals Will Lose.
Under these circumstances the
strength of railway stocks ana ponds
while the Industrial section OF the
market has been unsettled mus st he he
regarded as significant. 1t must De
taken as d quiet expression OF con-
fdence that such things are not com !
ing TO pass, that what the stree
would call anti-railroad candidates
and anti-railroad policies are not go-
ing to succeed at this election. Had
there been uneaslness on TINS score
railway securities, instead or belnS
the strongest, would logically nave
been the weakest in the market;
Naturally much stress was lald
upon the discontinue of the radical
bloc in it's effort to bring about an
extra session of Congress. Also
good deal was made of the de1eat OF
the McNary farm relief Dill. lhese
were indications that, from hnanclal
point of view, were very agreeable
after all that has been said about
| the power of the radical element III
| the national Legislature. and after tht
demon;stration "f the ift aplti's and d h' th'
/ Democrats in combination, to reJec
administration measures.
Huge business Slump Revealed.
| Revelations as to the rapidity o
| the business slump have, on the otheI
| hand, not been pleasant. Wall stree
was not prepared for the statemen
made in the midweek steel review:
| that the decline in pig iron produc
| ton during May was unprecedented
| Its idea of the falling off in thu
automobile industry was not up L
| the estimate given by the Nationa
Automobile Chamber of Commerce thai
production last month had dropped l:
| per cent as compared with the month
| before.
| The figures put out by the Depart
ment of the Interior, showing tina
the April output of gasoline ha'
| broken all records and indicating
| further piling up of unSold supplies
were decidedly not in agreement will
1 the forecasts made from high quar-
| ters last autumn and winter. Then
4 az all, tue ufOp III IA" SuSSi " III
| lowest in three years-to a leve
4 which admittedly would not ALLOW
! business to be done except at a loss
was upsetting. 1t was quite opposit
to the view held about the suga
| trade at the start of the year.
Sound Conditions Are Seen.
These occurrences have told agains
| the stock market. They created 3
! feeling that perhaps after all, th'
| Importance of the business recession
during the last two months and
half had been undeTated, and tha
| not enough discounting had beeI
done in stock exchange prices. This
| however, only tends to explain tn.
more immediate price movement. TIL,
longer range judgment is that bust
ness is essentially sound because sup
| plies of materials in manufacturers
hands and supplies of goods in mer
chants hands are small, while price
| averages. according to the Dun index
have been coming down for fourteen
| weeks in succession. These are con
ditions which could well underlie
| substantial recovery later on, if tht
election probabilities appeared al
right to business interests.
Foreign Markets Lose Ground.
Although the German Reichstag ap-
proved the Dawes reforms, and so die