Evening star., 1924-09-21

BY l.. SETH SCHNITMAN.
Several weeks ago the writer indi-
Gated in these columns the extent to
which check transactions--i. e.. bank
debts to individual accounts-refiect-
ed business conditions. Though data
on bank debts in Washington rep
resent perhaps the best single indi-
Gator of business in the District,
there are other important series of
data which ought not to be overlook
ed by the business man, since they
furnish further straws to indicate the
way the trade winds are blowing.
For several years monthly statistics
have been compiled by the United
States Post Office Department cover
ing the revenue receipts derived by
the Federal government from the
postal service in the so largest cities
Of the United States. Being thus in
cluded in the compilation, Washing
ton may now point to its data on
postal receipts as a business weather
barometer worthy of more than pass
Ing notice.
December Receipts Higher.
These data. however, in their re-
ported or unadjusted state. like
de bits. indicate characteristics which
are of highly seasonal nature, as
the insert in the lower right-hand
corner of the accompanying drawing
will show. Postal receipts in Wash
ington are normally at their peak in
December during which month the
holiday season, aside from its joyous
gifts and greetings. briRgs almost
half again as much revenue to the
Federal government as the average
monthly receipts of any given year.
October is usually the second high
est month in point of postal receipts,
while March is next. Mailings in
April and November are normally on
about the same level at slightly more
than per cent above the monthly
average. The months of May, June.
July and August, with August at
more than l5 per cent below the
average. reflect the seasonal lull in
cident to Summer.
January and February are both
below the average, rejecting the
after-holday slump which always
follows the Christmas season, while
September. although normally below
the average. marks the revival of
activity following the Midsummer
slump. For comparison, the normal
season tendencies for bank debts are
also shown. 1t is significant to note
from this comparison that except for
the months of May and June the two
movements are seasonally almost par
allel. II account be taken of the fact
that debts are at their highest in
June only because governmental ex-
penditures in that month are at their
peak the seasonal similarity between
the two Independent movements is even
more striking.
WashinGton's BUSINESS Trend.
1t is apparent, therefore, from this
brief resume of conditions, peculiarly
seasonal that the data on postal re-
ceipts, in order to be effective as an
index of business. should be adjust ed
to eliminate this element. Adjust
ment has been made in the data on
postal receipts thereby leaving clear
the true trend of business in Wash
ington as seen from this index over
and above seasonal conditions. The
main section of the drawing shows
the course which business has taken
in Washington, since the depression
of 192O21 as seen from postal re-
ceipts after this adjustment, while
for comparison the companion index,
bank debts, is also shown.
At this point, it should be noted
that postal receipts are not affected
by price changes as is the case with
bank debts, for in the last five years,
while prices have gyrated and
tumbled, postal rates have remained
stationary except for a slight upward
revision with respect to advertising
matter allowed the second-class mail
privilege. 1t is this fact that at
once gives considerable weight to
the postal receipts data as an indica-
tor of business activity for these data
represent quantitative measure
with no such necessity for price ad-
justment as is true with the data on
bank debts, which reflect not alone
quantitative changes in the volume of
trade, but even price changes which
must be considered in properly ap-
praising a particular trend.
Trade Poorest in 1921.
The drawing indicates that for
debts the deepest trough in the year
1921 occurred in the month of May
and this not alone because the guam
titative volume of business was prob
ably at it's lowest in that month. but
even because during that month
wholesale prices had registered in Its
downward movement decline OF
about Is per cent from those which
prevailed in January, 1921. On the
other hand, and that on postal re-
in trade in 1921 occurred in April,
from which month forward, except
for two or three brief recessions In
that year. the course Of postal re-
ceipts in Washington was unmistak-
ably upwards until March, 1924. From
January, 1922, to December of that
year wholesale prices advanced more
than 13 per cent, which accounts in a
large measure for the more rapid
rate of advance in dollar volume OF
trade in the early months of 1922 than
was indicated by postal receipts
From March, 1923 to December, 1923,
wholesale prices declined per cent
Postal receipts in 1928, although
rather erratic, exhibited on the veal
a continuation of the upward tend
ency. The peak month thus far fol
1924 for postal receipts was reached
in March, from which time until last
month the movement was continu-
ously downward, while debts were
also on the decline. This indicator
exhibits an unmistakable decrease In
business in Washington during those
several months, while since the mid.
die of the year business as reflected
by bank debts and postal receipts has
been on the mend.
Some Striking Contrasts.
In the upper left-hand corner OF
the drawing is given a comparison
between postal receipts in Washing
ton and the revenue from the Sc
largest cities in the United States
including Washington, and represent
Ing almost so per cent of the total