The midland journal. (Rising Sun, Md.) 1885-1947, 1924-04-04
Hog Production
Travels Circle
Amount of Breeding Deter
mined by Profits Made
the Preceding Year.
prepared by the United States Department
Of ARricuIture.l

prepared by the United States Department
Of Agricultural
Hog raising in the United States is
dominated by an innate tendency to
fall into a vicious circle of successive
over and under production, normally
running two years from one extreme to
the other. This is brought about large
" by the fact that the amount Of
breeding at given time is mainly de-
termined by the profits made from
hogs during the preceding year, which
depend on the ratio between the price
Of corn and the price of hogs. If
these ups and downs are to be elm
mated, hog breeding must be based on
sounder view of probable future con-
ditions than can be obtained merely
from the memory of past profits.
Study Fluctuations.
So say economists of the Department
Of Agriculture who have investigated
fluctuations In hog production from
1871 to 1915. These detailed studies
were made by DR.. Sewall Wright, Of
the animal husbandry division, bureau
Of animal industry, and are part of a
program of studies dedling with meat
animals initiated some time ago under
the general supervision of E. w. Sheets,
assistant chief Of the division. The
period mentioned, 1871 to 1915, was
chosen for study because the aim was
to find out what relations exist be-
tween hog production and prices and
the corn situation in normal times.
Since the World war disturbed normal
conditions, the war period was left out
Of the reckoning. The close connec-
lion between corn prices and hog pro-
duction is due, Of course, to the fact
that about IS per cent of the corn crop
Is consumed by live stock and is the
principal element in the cost of pro-
ducing hogs. Altogether about 40 per
cent of the total corn crop is consumed
by hogs.
It has been found that hog breeding
reaches its maximum from half a year
to year after hog prices touch their
peak in relation to corn prices and be-
gin to decline This belated action by
the breeders produces a surplus of
hogs year or more later. by which
time the hog-ccrn ratio is usually at
or near its low point. On the other
hand, breeding does not reach its low
point until some time after the hog
corn price ratio has begun to rise
again. There is consequently swing
to underproduction. Any cause lead
Ing to unusual profits or losses sets up
oscillations in the number of hogs rum
ming about four years from crest to
crest.
Should Study Conditions.
Apparently the price which the pack
ers pay for hogs during a given season
does not depend wholly. on the actual
supply offered. 1t is Influenced to a
greater extent by current and pros
pective conditions in the country as a
whole, as indicated by the amount Of
breeding that has been done and by
recent and current tendencies in corn
prices. It is, therefore, suggested that
| the farmers would be well advised to
study these conditions, instead Of blind
ly rushing into hog production when
prices are high and going out Of the
business when prices are low.
| The departments investigators were
struck with the fact that during the
period studied the summer live weight
Of hogs marketed gave remarkably
close indication Of the amount of breed
Ing for the twelve-months' period end
ing in the following fall. knowledge
Of the summer weight of hogs could
thus have afforded means of predict
Ing pork production and winters laugh-
tering for the next year or more. Pro-
duction, in fact, was more closely cor
related with preceding summer weights
and corn prices than with any Of the
other factors considered. Winter live
weight on the other hand, was deter
mined largely by the preceding corn
crop, and only secondarily by the
amount of breeding done the preceding
year.
Here is the way the department sum-
marizes its study of the effect of the
hog-corn ratio on future hog prices.
Seasonal slaughter is determined in
part by the amount of breeding during
at least three years past, and in part
by tendencies toward concentration in
the summer season in which prices are
high at the expense of the winter sea-
son, whenever the corn supply permits
this to be done. This is why the corn
crop has its maximum effect on hog
slaughter in the summer after it was
raised. There is second peak of
slaughter in the third following winter,
due to the stimulus to breeding.
1t is noted that while the farm price
Of hogs is very closely related with
the packers price, 1t lags behind the
packers price several months.