The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1924-12-21
Christmas Calm In Trade
But Wheels Keep Turning
Smaller Winter Wheat
Acreage Forecast;
Cotton Calm
Rx John 7. FLYNN

ments as pointing the way for business
and 1t might all sound very impressive.
But the fact remains that there Is moth
ing in the events of this week that has
very much bearing on the future course
of business. The financing of corpora
lions, foreign countries and states goes
on, the stock market INDUCES in spas
| modic returns of it's recent fever, the
air continues to be filled with opti-
| mistic proclamations. But the only
thing that is apparent Of any real value
in determining the course OF future
business Is a continuance of those fac
tors which have led me to insist that
business is to improve slowly and mod
erately and soundly. The course OF
commodity prices indicates this. The
| buying movement in the retail trade
gets under way just little at time
and not yet sufficiently to have any
other effect on prices than seasonal
improvement.
The most important factors have been
the persistent Improvement In the IRON
| and steel trades at a time when,
pause would not have been unexpected,
the reaction of the textile and cotton
goods trades to the cotton report and
the general appraisal of the agrtcul-
tural situation. Add to this the more
| optimistic tone on the automobile man
ufacturing mills and the phenomenal
performances of the railroads in the
matter Of traffic and we have in our
possession most of the straws which
show which way the wind Is blowing.
| Taxing The Roads
| Loading of revenue freight Is the
greatest for this season OF the year In
the history of the railroads.
Total loading of revenue freight for
the week ended on December 6 was
96S256 cars, according to reports filed
today by the railroads with the car
service division of the American Rail-
| of 54,335 cars over the corresponding
week last year and 59082 cars above
the same week in 1922. 1t also was
an increase Of 226,915 cars above the
corresponding week in 1921, and an in
crease of 13O,303 cars above the cor
responding week in 1920.
Operations Doubled
At this season operations ordinarily
are slowing down, yet they are increas-
ing in the steel mills. The country as
a whole is now operating at just ex-
actly double the rate in midsummer
80 per cent of capacity. In most lines
construction, automobile, railroad-if
there has not been an actual increase
in orders of steel, there has been a
great increase in inquiries. Already
this Is resulting in a rising tendency
than dealers expected.
The Auto Market
A start has been made by automobile
producers to replenish stocks OF parts
and accessories which have been held
down to a minimum since the decline
in sales and production of cars set in.
The volume of orders placed so far in
dicates an active manufacturing first
quarter on the part of passenger car
builders and an immediate pickup
among parts makers. The move toward
replenishing stocks has come earlier
in the month than was anticipated.
Reports from automotive jobbers are
encouraging, November showing 10
per cent increase over the correspond
ing monht of last year. Healthy gains
are shown among the jobbing houses
identified with agricultural trade. De-
cember is not expected to break records
! in this merchandising branch OF the
industry, but it will establish good
marks.
Definite programs for automobile pro-
duction next year will be settled upon
following the opening of the show sea-
son in New York the first part of jan
uary.
Although manufacturers regard the
first quarter of next year with great
optimism, they will not attempt to gage
demand until concrete evidence is given
of it's probable extent. December Will
see a cessation of operations among
some of the producers for a few days
around the holidays to permit of plant
oyerhauling and to pave the way for
larger operations in 1925, SO that the
output for the month is likely to fall
below that reported in November. Such
drop is normal to the season and
follows the usual production curve.
There will be no effort this month to
step up schedules.
Less Wheat Acreage
Following on the heels of the govern
ment's report of farm product values
comes the survey made by the New
York Journal of Commerce on wheat.
This survey indicates that acreage soWn
to wheat in IL winter wheat states Is
less than that of last year and sub
stantially less than that OF the pre-
ceding year and the war years. This
is ascribed to the fall drought. Had 1t
not been for this, according to the sur
vey, the acreage would have exceeded
last years. But the condition has been
| improved by good rains or snow in
the last few weeks.
A compact statement of the outlook
for demand and supply, is made by
George L. Arner, statistician of the
United States department of agricul-
ture, as a part of this survey.
On the basis of the present outlook
for demand and supply it may be as
sumed that the exports of wheat from
all surplus-producing countries for the
year which began on July 1, 1924, will
amount to nearly 700,O0O000 bushels.
OF this amount Approximately one
third will be supplied by the United
States, one-third by Canada, British
India and other Northern hemisphere
surplus countries, and one-third by Ar
gentina and Australia. This is in
marked contrast to the 1923-25 stua-
ton in which Canada alone furnished
A per cent of wheat exports, the South
ern hemisphere SO per cent, leaving
only % per cent for the United States,
Russia, British India and minor eX-
porting countries.
Calm In Cotton Markets
| Although the last government esti-
mate of the cotton crop turned out to
be somewhat lower than the market eX-
pected, it had very little effect. 1t Is
long time, in fact, since the cotton
market has run along for so many
weeks on such an even keel. Bullish
reports do not lift 1t nor bearish ones
depress it to any very marked extent.
The reason is that speculative interest
in the market, for the time being, is
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