Evening star., 1924-08-10
Continued from First Page.)


accept the plan at London--anI am
writing before the German phase has
been completed-there will b. debate es
and counter-proposition presented
by the Germans. The matter of the
evacuation of the Ruhr will have to
be adjusted, some clear and definite
assurance provided for the Germans
thatH they do comply The evacuation
will take place. otherwise the Ger
man government cannot venture to
accept the Dawes plan, given it's do
nieStic political situation.
But it must be clear that again W.
are dealing with a Legitimate con"ern.
The French are obviously entitled to
stay in the Ruhr just as long as the
Ruhr occupation has not achieved is
purpose, which was to compel Ger
man payment of reparations. On the
other hand. they have no right what
soever, to stay there a minute after
they are assured of German payment.
which will at one time recognize
French and German rights which AZ
neither mutually exclusive nor actually
conflicting.
Cannot Ask Too Much.
OF course, it is plain that if too
much is asked of Herriot in the new
phase of the London conference. ev-n
Ibis acquiescence will be of little use
for he will be overturned when he
gets home-the same, too. is true OF
the rx-Stresemann cabinet And
until there is ratification of the plans
and the agreements Of London both
by the French chamber and the Ger
man Reichstag, we shall no.. be ou. of
the woods. while the fall of the Mac
Donald cabinet over the Irish Ques-
ton. for example, might postpone, if
it did not compromise, the Dawes
program.
On the whole, however. cne can
say accurately that this last allied
conference, the fourteenth by some
reckoning-most people have lost
count altogether-has been measur-
ably successful where all others were
complete failures, because in all coun-
tries concerned there has been a
marked diminution in the strength of
the extremists. The nations have at
least come to the point of making a
distinction between the rights which
are inalienable and those which cen
be parted with and not risk any real
national disaster. France, for ex-
ample, could always afford to surren-
der the right to act independently,
when there is no real basis for ar-
tion: Britain could surrender the
right to challenge French Independent
German default of the willful sort.
Sits Down to Germans.
In the end. however, the question
will come down to the consent of
Germany to pay; success or failure of
the Dawes plan will depend upon the
continuing advantage of Germany to
pay. Under the debt settlement ar
yIh dc u
Great Britain, that country Is to pay
up annually $4,000 900 over a period
of 60 years to liquidate a debt of
$4,000, 100000. On the same basis Ger
many would pay the allies $500, 900, 900
for a similar period. We could not by
should not resort to force in case Of
British default, but the British will
never default because they have ac-
cepted the settlement freely and rec
ognize the alternative as disastrous
to their credit.
Today the Germans will probably
accept the Dawes plan because 1T in
sures an immediate loan and only
eventual payments of large fixed sums
annually. Success or failure for the
Dawes plan will come three or four
years later when, having got their
loan and having restored their eco
confronted with the obligation to be-
gin their annual contribution Of $780,
900, 900. No one can forecast whether
then resistance, or compliance will
seem to the German more advanta-
geous or question the. fact that IL it
seems more profitable to default, he
will default.
To Stay In Rhineland.
Until this danger point is passed
French troops are sure to stay in the
Rhineland, even If the British retire
and the Is years of occupation
under the treaty of Versailles have
still over ten to run, assuming that
this occupation has begun, as the
French do not. And it may also be
assumed with safety that IL the Ger
mans do default five years hence, the
French will act again once the default
is stablished as wilful. No agree