Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1924-10-19
bR|T|SHELECT|0N
PUZZLES EXPERTS
Prophets Admit Anything
May Happen-Some See
Landslide Either Way.
BY WILLIAM BIRD.
Special Euroneap Corresnondant

special European Correspondent
By Radio to The Star
LONDON, October 1S.-Great Brit
afn's tnree-cornered election offers as
intricate a puzzle to political prog
nostfcatorS as that of the United
states. With barely 10 days of cam
palgning before the polling day, Octo-
per 20. prophets are willing to admit
that almost anything may happen.
First of all, let it be explained that
the Macdonald government still is
In power. The impression seems to
prevail in the United States that an
adverse vote in the House of Com
mons means that the cabinet must
resign. That is the case in France
Where parliaments are elected for a
hxed term, but in England the cabi-
net. when it is placed in a minority,
mas the choice of resigning and let
ting other parties govern, or of dis
solving Parliament and carrying the
question to the country
That is what Prime Minister Mac
Donald has done. Therefore, when
the new Parliament meets he will
still be premier, whatever the cleo
tlon result is, and he will prepare
the kings speech from the throne on
which his cabinet will stand or fall
Argument for Macdonald.
Consequently if the political COM
piexion of the new parliament is sub
stantially the same as the old with
the Liberals holding the balance of
power between the Conservatives and
the Laborites, Mr. MacDonald's con-
clusion will be that the country de-
sireS things to remain as they are
and this Will be strong argument
for the Liberals continuing to sup
port the Labor government, distaste-
full as it may be.
But, while there is no great conf
dence in either the Conservative or the
Labor camp of carrying an absolute
majority, many prophets foresee the
possibility of a landslide one way
or another. Indeed, it is a curious
fact that some careful observers are
prophesying Conservative landslide
while others equally well informed
believe that Labor will sweep the
country.
Liberals May Not Vote.
Predictions of a Conservative sweep
are based, first, on the belief that the
Liberals. disguised with their pros
poets, will abstain from voting in
large numbers, thereby making it
straight two-sded fight in many
districts. In fact, the Liberals are
refraining from entering a candidate
in about one hundred districts which
they contested last time. Secondly, it
is suggested that as the issue on
which Mr.. Macdonald was beaten and
which thus becomes nominally the
principal campaign issue. is one of
executive meddling with the judiciary
and the great mass of Englishmen
jealousy guard the courts indie
pendence of political influence.
These two factors. some observers
think, are sufficient to turn the scales
in many districts and insure a con-
sentative majority in Parliament.
Hold Labor Is Strong.
Prophets of a Labor landslide are
more numerous. They say, first, that
Labor has the best and most COM
plete organizations; second, that the
issue on which Mr.. Macdonald was
outvoted is regarded as trivial by the
average voter, and, third, that the
British public does not believe that
Labor has had a fair chance. They
also count heavily on the violent
campaign of the Rothermere press
against Macdonald to have boone
rang effect. Mr.. Macdonald is ac-
cused of treason daily by these pa
pers, in the crudest words.
But by far the greatest number of
prognosticators expect that the next
change. Both Laborites and Conserv-
atives are likely to gain some seats
at the Liberals expense, it is thought,
but not a clear majority.
This would mean continuing Mr..
Macdonald in power by Liberal toler-
ance as previously, or else the form
ing of a coalition between right wing
Liberals and Conservatives. Every
body is watching David Lloyd George.
HE always keeps the door to COM
promise open," say political wise
acres, and it would not be surprising
to find him the next foreign minister
in coalition cabinet.
DOWNRIGHT