Evening star., 1924-05-11
AGREEMENT OF NATIONS
! ON DAWES PLAN is SEEN
Operation of German Financial RehabiI-
, itation Scheme Expected Before
End of Present Year.

new German evasion.
The York speech seemed to bring
all the fat into the fire again. But it's
evil effects were promptly Iessened by
assurances sent to Paris by MacDon-
aid that while Britain did not wish to
do anything to suggest a formal chal-
lenge of German good faith in ad-
vance, she was prepared to act and
act energetically if Germany should
Default This speech was followed
very closely by that in Wales, which
l have already cited
Taken together with the conversa-
tions which attended the visit of the
belgian premier to Chequers, it
would seem quite clear that we are
not menaced by any new conflict be-
tween two who'll irreconcilabIe poll
cies, but simply that there is going
on pretty open and frank feeling
out of positions, and that Macdonald
has not the smallest intention of un-
dertaking to impose British views
without regard to French.
OF course, when all is said and
done, the most important cards re-
main IN French hands. They do hold
the Ruhr and they are exploiting the
coal and railway systems. Moreover,
they maintain garrisons all through
the Rhur, and the Dawes report did
not suggest the withdrawal of these,
although it did insist upon the return
to Germany of control of all of the
economic instruments Of production.
Troops Will Remain.
France will not withdraw her
troops, that is understood. The
Dawes report did not, and could not.
deal with this question. But the
mere presence of the troops did not
interfere with German exploitation of
her own resources, as the German
occupation of Eastern France we'll
demonstrated after 1871. On the
other hand, nothing is possible un-
less France does agree to surrender
economic control And as the situa-
ton stands, the bargaining promises
all to turn around this point
You must see then what a compli-
Gated series of negotiations are to
come now. Negotiations between
Great Britain and France which must
be had and must end in agreement
before anything can come of the
Dawes report Then negotiations be-
tween the allies and Germany
through the reparations commission,
which must cover the general reor-
ganization of German finance and the
carrying out of the Dawes report
recomm endafiops oanor,nx, ~ -...
important of which, in certain phases.
is the transfer from French to Ger
man hands of the Ruhr industries.
Key to Situation.
But always the key to the situa-
ton will remain the relation between
Great Britain and France. If these
two powers cannot work together,
neither can impose it's will upon the
other and the paralysis of past
months will continue. But if this
paralysis continues German fiscal COL
lapse is inevitable and a similar
French smash can hardly be averted.
The collapse of both France and Ger
many financially, with all the inev-
liable repercussions upon the conti-
mental nations generally, would have
grave consequences for Britain, still
cursed with immense unemployment
Both France and Germany want in
ternational loans. World finance and
particularly American capital is pre-
sumably available at the precise mo-
ment when the political obstacles can
be removed But it is almost axio-
matte that no American or other
money will be available for France
the Dawes report have been accepted
and translated into fact Obviously
then, France, Germany, Britain and
Belgium have large immediate stakes
in the restoration of something like
order in the situation. What remains
the single danger point is that there
are limits beyond which no country
can or will make concessions even to
insure settlement.
Needs Money Desperately.
France needs money desperately,
but she will not, merely for small
loans now-comparatively small
jeopardize her whole future prospect
of collecting reparations and into
the bargain expose herself to a new
attack from Germany economically
restored and politically and militarily
dangerous. Britain, by contrast, will
certainly not go beyond a fixed point
in giving assurances to France. AS
for Germany, she will do nothing
save as she finds France and Britain
a in l.
ance.
The hope in the situation lies in the
fact that we are getting much near
er to realities than ever before Ger
many has well-nigh wrecked herself by
her policy of evasion and the ruin
would be complete if her rejection of
the Dawes report brought, as it in
evitably would, a recurrence of the
chaos which followed the protracted
struggle over the Ruhr. There must
be point at which Germany would
prefer payment to suicide: perhaps
the Dawes report marks that point.
France has gone through ilIuminat-
ing experiences Of her own. The cri-
sis over the franc was significant.
Her occupation of the Ruhr has,
doubtless contributed to bringing
about the situation which exists.
Gen. Dawes himself indorsed it as an
essential step toward the end which
has now been reached. But France
realizes that she cannot collect repa-
rations by the bayonet. The best she
can do is to procure state of mind
which might lead to payment provid-
ed the bayonets were sheathed.
Foresees Agreement.
I believe that all European indica-