Evening star., 1924-09-21
CERMANY'S VAIN EFFORT
TO ESCAPE WAR GUILT
Violation of Belgium Remains, Even if
''Will to War; Is Fixed
Upon Austria.

the burden.
When Austria began to mobilize
against Serbia, Russia began to mob
ilize against Austria, because If Aus
tria were mobilized and Russia not,
then the Russians would be at the
mercy of the Austrians. But Russian
mobilization led to the expansion of
Austrian and then to the grave anxi-
ETY. of Berlin. On the other hand, the
military party in Petrograd was get
ting as nervous as that in Berlin or
in Vienna, and on July % the Car
ordered general Russian mobilization.
Czar'. Order Suppressed.
He countermanded this order the
next day. when German moderation
was at last visible, but the Russian
chief of staff suppressed this order
while denying the fact to Berlin. and
later the weak and hesitant Car was
persuaded to reissue il. But mobili-
zation-complete mobilization-mean
for the German general staff deadly
peril. Each day Russia had to mob
iliZe L will leSsened the chance of
success for the German program of
attacking France and leaving only a
thin cover OF troops in the East. So
we on July 81 had the German ulti-
matum to Petrograd, "Osarm with
in "a hours an ultimatum which no
great power could obey. Therefore,
the German declaration of war came
on August l.
Germans and their foreign cham
pions now seek to make the action of
the Russian general staff responsible
for the war: to describe the order for
complete mobilization as the "precipi-
tating" cause of the conflict, but in
the final analysis it is obvious that
this order was only a consequence of
n no nS tri
in undertaking to attack Serbia and
the result of German assent to such
an attack. ThiSkAustTan course con-
vinced Russia that Austria meant to
crush Serbia at all hazards, and that
there was no chance of peace. When
the attack actually began, and only
when the Austrians bombarded Bel
grade, Russian general mobilization
was ordered. When Germany refused
to intervene to restrain her ally prior
to the night of July %. then, and only
then, the Russian general staff got
control of the situation. Moreover,
the next day Russian mobilization au-
tomatically put the control of the
German situation into the hands of
Moltke and the army.
No Evidence OF Fermentation.
At the outbreak of the war the
allied world believed that Germany
had deliberately inspired Austria to
make the attack upon Serbia; that
Austria was always the accessory
while seeming the principal. The evil
dence no longer warrants such an as
sumption. After the war there was,
too. general assumption that at the
July conference Germany had de-
ltberately envisaged and prepared the
catastrophe. and only weakened, so
far as she weakened when she dis
covered that England. as we'll as
France and Russia, would be against
her. In word, il was generally ac-
cepted as a fact that the war was a
carefully premeditated crime. Hence
the phrase war guilt" of the later
time.
The truth is. it seems to me- that
the world overestimated Gre rman abil-
ity and German statesman ship. With
an incredible levity and blindness the
German Kaiser and his responsible
ministers consented to give their sup
port to an Austrian attack upon Ser
bia, perceiving dimly that there was
some risk of Russian support of
Serbia, and thus Of war, but not be-
lieving in it and by no means believ-
ing there could be a general war.
Committed to the support of Austria,
German craftsmanship stood by dur
ing the fatal days when Austria went
ization, declaration of war and bonn
bardment, but did draw back when
the consequences were at last plain.
That Germany did consider war.
provided only Russia and France were
involved, seems patent from the vari-
Gus efforts made by Berlin to extract
a promise of British neutrality on
July % and the following days. Yet
/ am bound to say that 1 see in the
final representation made to Vienna
on July 80 that Austria accept media
ton proof that Germany in the ulti-
mate moment was seeking peace and
honestly striving to aid in ayerting
the calamity.
Planned Attack on Belgium.
If Germany, instead Of declaring
war upon Russia precipitately on Au-
gust 1. or of sending an ultimatum
the day before. had ordered mobiliza-
ton on her side, war might have been
averted. This would have put her at
no fatal disadvantage foQa day or
two more, since she had 10 get to-
gether her troops. But her plan
called for a surprise attack upon Bel
gium, then seizure of Liege and the
crossings of the Meuse, and this
seizure became increasingly difficult
with every hour Belgium was left
free to prepare the defenses
feared did happen. She failed to dis
pose Of France before Russia could
get ready. Thus she actually had to
recall four divisions from the west
to the east at the moment her troops
were entering France, and the alb
sence of these divisions was one of
the Immediate causes Of the loss of
the battle Of the Marne Moreover,
the Russian troops did get into east
hnf
pected. which suggests that Russian
mobilization had been in some degree
in progress in advance OF the official
order. Liege, too, was put in some
degree of fencibility, and did make
a resistance which exceeded German
calculations.
Urged Military Necessity.
I'VE can't wait was always the
burden of the German argument, and
necessity" was the ultimate justifi-
cation of Bethmann-H n-Hollweg for the
invasion of Belgium. In discussing
the causes Of the war II seems to me
that too little account has been made
of the purely military details. The
documents have been examined, but
not the general stan plans. Diplo-
macy is long process, but war has
to be the opposite, and in the strug-
giles before 1914 decisions had come
swiftly. The Waterloo campaign was
over in week, the war Of 1866 lasted
seven weeks, and Gravelotte and Sc
dan came as swiftly in 1870.
Once mobilization was ordered by
any country, all countries were bound
to respond. Partial mobilization could
not endure, because there would be
no adequate guarantee that any mo-
bilization would be partial. As a re-
suit, Europe had assumed that mo-
bilization meant war; that when it be-
gan craftsmanship would have to abb