The Sauk Centre herald. (Sauk Centre, Stearns County, Minn.) 1886-current, 1924-10-09
Outlook for the Butter Market

OUTLOOK Tor the butter mdrket-
Because of the prospective gain in
butter production this fall and whit
er over. last year and the large sur
plus accumulated in storage during
the flush season, the outlook for but
ter prices is not as strong as in eth
er of the last two years, according
to the Blue Valley Creamery Insti-
tute in a survey of the butter stu
alton just completed. Prevailing
prices are about Z to 10 cents a
pound lower than year ago and al
ready discount most, if not all, of the
bearishness of the situation. Season
al conditions are likely to bring a
moderate advance in the next few
months, especially on high grade
fresh butter, although much of the
decline compared with last years
prices is likely to be maintained.
Dry pastures in New England,
parts of Ohio and Indiana and the
far west have tended to reduce the
milk flow, but in most of the big
butter states of the middle west,
good pastures and cool weather have
sustained production so that the total
output of creamery butter for the en-
tire country is proceeding at re-
cord rate for this time of year. The
make is falling off gradually as pas
ture conditions become less favorable
and spring freshened cows reach a
more advanced stage of their lacta-
ton periods. The best availabl :,
measurement indicates a shrinkage
of 31.5 per cent from the peak in
June to the first of September, COM
pared with 35 per cent in the same
period of 1928.
Thus far in 1924, combined re-
ceipts of butter at the four leading
cities have been 81 per cent heavier
than in 1928. 1t is probable that
lower prices for butter fat with high
er prices for grains will tend to
check production during the late
fall and winter, so that the make is
not likely to show as much of gain
over the corresponding period a year
ago as it has been doing, the Insti-
tute report states. If it averages 10
per cent higher than year ago, from
October to March, inclusive, it means
a gain in total output for the entire
country of about so million pounds
and an increase of % million
pounds in receipts at the four cities.
Considering higher feed costs and
lower butter prices, the increase in
production for the winter seems more
likely to run under than over 10
per cent. The influence of higher
costs and lower selling prices will be
more apparent when dairy cattle
must be placed on dry feed. In case
of an early and severe winter, it is
conceivable that production might
show little or no increase during the
cold months over the corresponding
period year ago. AS long as pas
lures can be utilized, the decline in
butter prices will have little or no
effect, as the milk is produced at low
cost to the dalryman.
The American public is consuming
about the same amount of butter this
year as last. A comparison of re-
ceipts and changes in cold storage
holdings show that the apparent con-
sumption at the four leading mar
kets from May to August, 1924, in
elusive, was practically identical with
the corresponding period year ago,
according to the Creamery Institutes
survey.
The amount of creamery butter
produced in the entire country in
those months is not yet available, but
the increase in receipts at the four
leading cities, coupled with the fact
that these cities have a larger per-
centage of the country's total storage
holdings of butter indicate that pro-
duction has been running about 10
per cent higher than last year.
Creamery butter output in those four
months of 1923 was 562 million
pounds. A 10 per cent increase
would mean a total output of 618
million pounds. Last year approx
mately 100 million pounds were
placed in storage in the period re-
ferred to and 462 million pounds
-eensumed.
On the Same basis of calculation,
471 million pounds of creamery but
ter were consumed this year and
lat million pounds placed in stor-
age. These figures show slight in
crease in consumption, but net i'm
ports last year were about 5 million
pounds against practically nothing
this year. This makes domestic con-
sumption from May 1 to August 80
practically the same in each of the
two years.. -.
This showing is better one than
might have been expected, in
view of the fact that employment
conditions have not been as favora-
Bile this year as they were in the
corresponding period of 1928. This
coal mining and textile manufacture
ing cities seem to have been in worse
shape than the other industrial cen
tiers. Chain store operators report
that there has been a noticeable fall
ing off in the demand for butter in
some of these regions. The consum-
ption figures indicate, that enough
Increase has taken place elsewhere to
offset such declines, the Blue Valley
experts state.
In order to maintain the same
volume of consumption, however, il
has been necessary to keep the retail
prices of butter on lower level. The
reports of the United States Depart.
ment of Labor upon retail prices fn
81 leading cities show that butter
sold at an average price of so. 1 cents
from May to August in 1928. Dur
ing the same period in 1924 the av'
erage retail price was 48.1 cents
Contrary to some reports recently is
a g