Evening star., 1924-12-21
CERMANPOLTTICS CHAOTIC
AS RESULT. OF ELECTION
No Party or Group of Parties Has Clear
Majority Which Will Stand in Face
of Vital National Issue.

would by no means be as powerful
as numbers would suggest. because
at least 60 members of the Clerical
and Democratic parties, constituting
the republican minorities in both,
would certainly break away If any
| sweeping reactionary program were
adopted.
Thus one seems likely to arrive at
| situation, which, while terribly con-
fusing. might not be wholly unsatis-
| factory. A ministry made up of the
parties just named could only last
as long as 1t had the support of
| most of the Clericals and Democrats.
In reality the fate of such a min
istry would be in the hands of the
Clericals, just as the fate of the
Marx -Stresemann ministry was In
those of the Peoples party. But the
| Clerical party itself could only re-
main united precisely s long as the
ministry, whose essential support 1t
| contributed, refrained from follow
| ing dangerously reactionary policies.
Could Not Hold Control.
In reality, then, new conservative
| ministry, made up in the main by
| Nationalists, who are monarchists.
while the simplest and perhaps the
most llk ely solution would reproduce
| the situation which existed while the
| Labor government was In power in
| Great Britain, for the cabinet would
| be. like that of Macdonald, a mi
nority in the chamber on crucial ques-
| tions. Just as the Labor cabinet was
! estopped from adopting any radical
program such as it actually pro-
fessed, because of the opposition of
| the Tories and Liberals, the new
! German coalition would be estopped
from deliberate effort to overthrow
: h. \ tot no,Y
| plan by the certain combination not
alone of the Social Democrats and
| the Communists, but of certain Cleri-
| Gals and Democrats.
| And, if the resort were made to a
| Republican cabinet, it, too, would
have its hands tied, because, at best,
| it would have to depend upon as
sistance from the Peoples, together
with that from all the Democrats
! and Clericals, a considerable number
of whom are nationalist at heart.
Choice of Cabinets.
As consequence Germany has to con-
cabinets, one of which would be ma
tionalistic in it's tendencies and the
other Republican, but neither OF which
would have the power to express It's
views in any decisive fashion.
In such a situation, despite the dis
turbing effect it may have upon pub
lie opinion outside of Europe. both in
France which would be troubled on
the side of security, and Britain and
America, which might be troubled in
the matter of loans to Germany. there
is one obvious gain that a National
istic ministry might represent now.
SO far all the cabinets in Germany
have been Republican. The National
lists, being in the opposition, have been
able to saddle the Republicans with
responsibility for all the evils of the
years since the close of the war, and
contrast the prosperity and power of
pre-war Germany with the present
estate of the German republic.
Once the Nationalists came to power,
however, and to power which is
bound to be rigidly 1imited, they
would be forced either to demonstrate
superior capacity or to confess to the
same inability which they have criti-
cized in the Republicans. If the Ma
tionalists resort to their long prom
Used proclamation to the allied pow
ers of their reputation of the accept
ance of responsibility for the war,
written into the treaty of Versailles,
they will instantly provoke very un-
pleasant consequences in foreign rela-
tions, consequences, for example,
which might go to the length of a
delay in the evacuation of the Ruhr
and an interruption of foreign loans.
But if they failed to do this they will
be ridiculous as they were when,
after their long campaign against the
Dawes plan they supplied the votes
to insure German acceptance.
Must Have Chance.
Even more disastrous would be any
attempt to scrap the Dawes plan now,
while new debate is coming on over
the question of German failure to
comply with the disarmament provi-
sions of the Treaty of Versailles. Yet
the whole stock in trade Of the Ma
tionalistS consists in their declared
purpose to obtain a revision of the
treaty of Versailles, or more exactly
to discard this treaty and reorganize
European frontiers to German. ad-
vantage; indeed the Nationalist de-
mand goes beyond Europe and in
cludes the return of the German
colonies. For years they have
preached that such changes were pos
sible, provided only they returned to
power.
1t is plain, I think, that sooner or
later the Nationalists will have to
have their opportunity to demon
strate the possibility or impossibility
of their program. Such a test ap-
pears just as necessary as the Poin-
care episode, for France would not
have taken the Dawes plan until the
experiment of the occupa ton of the
Rhineland had been tried, although
of course the experiment also brought
Germany to the acceptance of the
same plan.
To the rest of the world it is patent
that the German condition since the
war has been the direct consequence
OF losing war for which the Ma
t1onalists were largely responsible
Neither monarchy nor republic could
have obtained other terms at Paris
than those actually written into the
treaty Of Versailles. Nor has Ger
many ever since been in a position
by force of arms to challenge the
treaty of Versailles, just as she is
not in that position at the present
moment.
Needs for New War.
No one knows better than the Ma
tionaist leaders, since the party in
cludes most of the higher officers of
the old army, that any attempt to
resist the treaty of Versailles by
force would lead to an invasion on
three sides, to war fought on Ger
man soil and bound to end in a terrific
defeat, for Germany is today without
the material for making war, al
| though she has adequate man power.
To organize new war must be a
matter of years after the German gets
control of all of his territory and
escapes from supervision by the al
llied missions.
But without war and successful war
there can be no revision of the ter
ritorial terms of the treaty of Yer
sailles, and the Dawes plan repre-
sents the most advantageous revi-
sion of the reparations provisions
now attainable. Therefore all the
Nationalist Indictment of the weak