The Seattle star. [volume] (Seattle, Wash.) 1899-1947, 1924-01-02
John Moody Prophesies
Prosperity During 1924
Good Times Will Last for Period of
Two or Three Years
ny ALExANpER HERMAN

Copyright. 1874, by NlsA SerVicel
NEW YORK. Jan, s.--Herc's a
IN business and financial forecast
made by John Moody, analyst. who
probably has closer touch on the
pulse OF business conditions than any
other man in tho country:
Teton tho whole. q constructive
year. with business good and mark.
ing the beginning OF period OF
longer prosperity.
Moody is not swayed by sentiment.
Cold facts are his fodder,
speaking broadly" no says, Il
look upon 1924 with considerable OPP
tlmiSm. We viii find Il. on the
whole. a constructive year. with tho
rapidl,y OF progress depending some.
what on political developments.
Is OPTIMISTIC
FOR COMING YEAR
There are certain fundamental
facts that Indicate tho possibilities
for good year. For tho past six
months or moro we have been In a
period OF moro or less financial con.
traction. A study OF tho financial
exhibits shows that bank reserves
are being built up: merchants lin.
hllitles are not greatly expanding.
there are no longer great inflated In.
ventories OF tho type OF 1890; inter.
est rates arc relatively low and
have been tending TO remain no all
the fall. the season when tho usual.
~ tighten up.
Notwithstanding tho activity I'm
business. reserves are being built UP.
which aro the usual forerunncrs OF
period OF prosperity, Tho notion
which prevailed year ago. that
we might run into new period Of
initiation. has not been borne out by
the facts.
Fer big business has been acting
moro cautiously than II did during
tho period OF Wild imitation In 1919
and 1890. There h1u been little
tendency TO over.expand and stock
up with goods IN anticipation OF a
boom. Nest business men Stii re-.
member the smash OF 1890 and have
learned n lesson IN caution.
IAN these primary factors mako
FOR healthy conditions for tho inaug.
ura,ion OF new period Of prosper.
| ity Immediately ahead OF Us. There
may be only moderate evidence OF
this business revival until tho mid
do OF tho new year. But II there IL
a decided promise OF tax reduction,
and other constructive political do.
velopments take place. real business
revival may be evident much earlier
Like everything else. psychological
factors enter into business condl.
tons"
Then, taking up tho leading indus
tries. Moody said this;
MANY LINES ARE
BETTER OFF
Farmers: Agriculture has been
behind the procession for several
years but tho farmers arc, on, tho
whole. better or than they were a
year or two ago. This improve
ment should continue during 1924
II weather conditions prove favor.
able and markets do not contract
to any great extent.
Foreign Situation: Getting stead.
lily better, for ths economic condl.
ton OF the people IN most Of
Europe IS slowly improving. During
1924 the reparations problem may
be brought closer TO permanent
settlement.
Railroads: The greatest trouble
for the railroads is that they are
burdened with tho United States
government Rs their senior part.
ner. a. whole. the railroads arc
today being operated ms efficiently
as they can be under present dit.
flcult conditions.
Basic Industries. Tho steel in.
dustry has been operating on small
margins Of profit and is eonsid
ernbiy depressed: the copper indus.
try shows some signs OF improve.
ment: the leather industry II in bad
shape: textiles are somewhat better
but the outlook for the rubber in.
dustry Is not so good. Tho auto,
mobile industry seems ovcr-devel
oped. but demand continues "a
stimulate supply.
Labor: SEQ no prospect OF radl
cal wage reductions during the
coming year. Tho prevailing short
age OF labor IN nearly all lines
seems certain 20 keep wages stable
The Question Of Deflatloa,.. / dc
not think that the trend Of com
modify prices Is going to be notice
ably downward for n number Of
years 10 come. The idea OF return
ing TO the basis OF 1918 In comnod
ity prices and the cost Of living, Il
: steadily becoming loss likely. Cost,
are abnormal. compared with pre-
war times, in all parts Of the world
but, Ike everything else. when peo
pie have adjusted themselves to ar
! abnormal situation long enough. Il
gradually becomes recognized al Tn,
normal situation.
SEES PROSPERITY FOR
TWO or THREE YEARS
Looking ahead: Tho expectet
period OF prosperity which should de
velop in 1924 may run for year o
} perhaps two or three years. ~