The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1924-12-30
PREDICTS
PROSPEROUS
YEAR
Guaranty Trust Company
Foresees Improvement in
Business for 1925

NEW YORK, Dec. SO.--The BUSH
ness outlook at the beginning OF
the new year is on the whole dis
tinctly favorable. Efforts have been
made to restore production to a
basis where 1t will balance demand,
according to the Guaranty Trus:
Company survey. At no other time
since. the war has there been SO
marked predominance OF encour-
aging factors, the survey continues.
The essential basis for sustained
and well rounded prosperity have
been materially strengthened, and
in a large part this improvement
was effected in 1924.
Commencing on the years prog
ress, the report finds three out
standing events: "(1l The adoption
Of the Dawes plan, quickening eco
nomic recovery in Europe; (2) the re-
adjustment between agricultural and
industrial prices, and t3) the success
of conservative political issues in
both European and American cleo
tons.
Responding in part to the in
fluence of these important factors,
and partly to the reaction newt
able from O long period OF reduced
production and lessened activity,
substantial business recovery oc.
CURED in the closing months Of the
year, and seems well under way for
1925. So far this recovery has been
marked by no overproduction or ex-
cessive borrowing, and it has not
attained the proportions Of a boom
or inflationary movement; in fact,
solid and substantial progress, based
IL 49, ~
its characteristic feature.
1.-THE bases for the assurance of
further progress may be summarized
as follows:
1. Ample credit and capital and
low interest rates; 2, large retail and
mail order sales; 3, ample and eff
cient transportation; 4, increasing
foreign trade, especially a greater
volume Of exports; 5, greater pros.
perity and saner regulation for our
public utilities; s, improved indus
trials conditions, particlarly in the
motor, rubber and textile industries,
and marked recovery in the iron
and steel industry, with rising mar
kets for other metals; z, increasing
employment of labor; 8, the high
purchasing power of wages; 8, a
reasonable stability and balance of
prices; 10, greatly increased savings
deposits and new life insurance
written as evidence of thrift; IL,
strong stock and investment mar
kets, with a larger volume Of sue
cessful financing of both foreign
and domestic Offering; IL, q reas-
surfing political outlook.
Throughout the period Of bust
ness recovery from 1921 to the
spring of 1923 it was evident that
the expansion was founded upon a
narrower base than is required for
sustained prosperity. Important
branches of agriculture remained
in condition Of depression, and
the total Of industrial production
represented unbalanced activity.
Especially in the building, railroad
equipment and automobile indus
tries holdover demand from the
earlier periods of restricted pro-
duction induced an extraordinary
concentration Of effort. Neverthe-
less, the persistent lag in some
important fields of enterprise rep
resented continuing elements of
weakness in basic conditions.
Nov definite progress toward a
balanced situation is evident. Be
cause the conspicuously weak spots
have been for the most part elm
mated the expansion OF business
which has been in progress since
last summer reflects a more gener.
ally encouraging situation than has
obtained in many years.
There is always the possibility
that so fortunate q combination of
circumstances may result in an
indiscriminate optimism, bringing
in turn the excuses of credit and
rrice initiation.