Evening star., 1924-08-18
ARTICLE XIV.

Akvs
Military developments beneath. the
apparently serene course OF Russian
army reform point to next spring RS a
possible danger point. and may have a
grave bearing on the peace OF Europe.
Much has bee! made of tho great re-
duction OF the Red army since the de-
feat of the Wrangell movement as an
indication OF bolshevism's pacific inten-
tions so far as open attacks on Its
neighbor are concerned.
What has escaped notice Is that the
Red army will be brought up this
Autumn to a point so per cent greater
than It's nominal peacetime effective
strength, that the extra moiety will
be ready for service next Spring. that
some mysterious force Is making des-
perate efforts to weaken Russia's most
probable opponents militarily. and that
the Red army Is. avowedly being reor-
ganized to fit II for cooperation by IN
vasion with insurgent Communists in
outside countries.
Early In April, at the height OF this
years war scare over the Russo-Ru :
manian crisis and the possibility that
Russia might seek to recover Bessarabia
by arms. the bolshevlst censorship per-
mitted me to telegraph my conclusion
that the alarm this year was un5usti-
fled. 1t was based on a very simple
promise-namely, the issuance OF the
order demoblizing the time expired
soldiers Of the Red army and calling up
the new 1902 class only in May, so that
the Red army would be loaded up with
green recruits and OF inferior fighting
strength during the entire Summer.
What I could not telegraph was that
other indications Of the same nature
pointed to next year as period OF
danger. The Red army reform pro-
gram, it may be revealed, provides for
calling up this year not one, but two,
annual contingents Of recruits, the 1902
class in the Spring and the 1903 class
this Autumn Under the two-year
period OF service and with discharges OF
time expired men only in the Spring,
the Red army next Spring will include
one extra years contingent OF trained
soldiers, increasing it's striking force by
one-half.
Red Army to Total 100000.
Instead Of something more than
500, 900 men, its nominal peacetime
strength, Russia"s active army will
then number approximately 1.00O,o0o
trained men. Whether the bolshevist
chieftains, in compliance with their
threat never to swallow peacefully
Rumania; may depend on the then
international constellation. upon Ru-
manias vigor in her efforts to OBJ
tain allies and military assistance
and upon the Vigor with which
France and Poland are then pre-
pared to support Rumania's cause.
Several portentous incidents since
April may be read in this connec-
ton. Responsibility. it is true, has
not been definitely traced to Russia.
but circumstances point TO ii, par
ticularly in view Of the Russian war
Academy measures to send out focks
Of trained military experts to prepare
the ground for later military opera
tions against established govern
ments. First came the great explo-
sion at Bucharest. which destroyed a
large part of the reserves or Shells.
explosives and other material Of war
which Rumania had been accumu-
lating in view of her threatened mil
itary position.
Though the catastrophe was SO
complete as to destroy all indications
as to its origin and cause. ii was so
obviously to the advantage of Soviet
Russia to justify a working theory Of
carefully laid plot to destroy the
munition reserves of 4 country with
which she might soon be at war.
Hardly had the smoke from the
Bucharest explosion and fire blown
away when an exactly similar catas-
trophe was barely averted at the
great munitions depot OF Rumania's
ally, Poland. at Lemburg. work
man at the munitions depot was
caught in the very act OF placing an
Internal machine beneath the central
storehouse. containing more than 200
II. <NH-r1 md
shells, the explosion of which would.
as at Bucharest, have destroyed the
entire depot.
Conspiracy Traced to Moscow
This attempt was at first attributed
to Ruthenian irreconcilables in forci-
bly, annexed Eastern Galicia. but it
was later stated that the threads of
the conspiracy had been definitely
traced to Moscow. 1t furnished
highly plausible explanation of the
mysterious Bucharest explosion. A
few nights after the failure of the
first I-emberg plot Il desperate effort
was made to rush the guards at the
IIemberg arsenal and carry out the
destruction by force, but the assail-
ants were driven off in the darkness.
Attempts to tamper with troops or
military supplies have also been re-
ported from ESthOnla ana IatNia "A
Russian central espionage organiza-
tion has just been broken up at
Prague and the Russian secret police
are making desperate efforts to blind
the eyes OF the Polish and Rumanian
information services in Russia. the
newspapers having almost daily re-
ports of the arrests and trials of
foreign spies. So when bolshevist
advocates point to the great reduc-
ton in the size of the Red army
since the defeat of the last invading
force. the Wrangell army, as proof
Of Russia's pacific intentions. it is
we'll to remember the above facts.
That this reduction has been sweep
ing cannot be denied. The Red army
numbered on paper at the collapse of
the Wrangell movement 100000
men, though how many of these were
labor battalions and other noncom-
batant sections is uncertain. The
total combatant strength of the army
and fleet at the beginning Of the year
was placed at $4,000 men. The num-
Der has been somewhat increased