The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1924-07-16

Coolidge Claims Ballots Of
East and Central West.
Upsets Are Possible
By WILLIAM HARD.

ny W1LLIAM nAKSUs
In this campaign for President
this year there are trenches where
each candidate is strong, and
there is q no-man's-land where
the contest between the candidates
will be firm and stubborn and
perhaps terrific and devastating,
and there is finally the chance
and prospect that the ultimate
issue in November may be q stale
mate requiring further lombard
ments and strategic maneuvers
and settlements next year in the
House Of Representatives and in
the Senate.
The trenches consist Of certain
States where Mr.. Coolidge or Mr..
Davis or Mr.. La Toilette, as the
case may be, have a strong initial
advantage.
Race Already Close.
It happens by an odd coincidence
that Mr.. Coolidge and Mr.. Davis
start off with an almost exactly
equal number of sure and certain
votes in the Presidential electoral
college.
In the Presidential electoral col
lege there is a total Of 531 votes.
Each State in the electoral college
has number of votes equal to the
number OF it's representatives in
the lower house Of Congress at
Washington, plus two votes moro
because Of its two United States
Senator's.
This arrangement gives an undue
weight in Presidential elections to
the smaller States.
Nevada has a population (roughly)
Of $4,000. It has one Representative
IN the lower house of Congress. It
has two United States Senators. It
has, accordingly, three votes in the
Presidential electoral college. In
other words, Nevada gets one vote in
the Electoral college FOR each
$4,000 OF its population.
New York meanwhile has q popu.
lation OF approximately 10,500 900.
It has its two United States Sena-
tors and it has forTy-three Represen.
tatives in the lower house OF Con-
gress. It accordingly has forty-fiye
votes In the Presidential electoral
college. -
This works out to mean that It
takes nearly 100000 New Workers. to
get one vote in the Presidential cleo
toral college.
In other words, each Nevadan has
ten times as much weight in the
election of President as each New
Yorker.
Situation Faces Changes.
This situation is unfair, but it is
unlikely to be changed because there
are enough small States to prevent
the adoption of any Constitutional
amendment changing it.
In any case. since the total num-
Der Of Representatives in the lower
house of Congress in Washington is
4S6 and since the total number of
United States Senators is 96, it
follows that the total number Of
votes in the Presidential electoral
cole is 531, and a. majority is 266.
A candidate must get at least
that majority to win in the electoral
college.
If no candidate has a majority in
the electoral college, that Is, il no
candidate gets 266 votes in the
electoral college next November, the
election goes to Congress.
In a succeeding set of articles the
character of the proceedings which
then will happen in Congress will be
considered in the light Of historical
experience and in the light of the
party composition of Congress at
this time.
Solid South Advantages.
In this set Of articles a nra.
hminary inquiry will be made re.
garding the chances Of the present
candidates in relation to the problem
OF acquiring a majority in the cleo
toral college at the polls in
1t is commonly thought that the
Democratic candidate starts off with
q great advantage over the Repub.
hcan candidate because Of being
sure Of the South.
This advantage, however. ON
ANALYSIS, Is not so great as it seems,
The number OF really substantially
sure votes for Mr.. Coolidge in the
electoral college is just about as
large as the number Of sure votes
for Mr.. Davis.
In each case this number can be
reasonably calculated as being in
fact 149.
Since twice 149 ia 2sS, It thus
appears that more than half of the
votes in the electoral college are
already settled, unless strange up.
sets in public sentiment should
happen between now and November.
Such upsets are indeed possible.
GEMIIINE