The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-01-23
TREND OF TRADE
 MOVES UPWARD
Forbes Encouraged By Both Home And Foreign
 Conditions
By B. c. FORBES

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 By B. c. FORBES
 Business is not as brisk today as it was a year ago. But this is . good thing.
 We were then heading toward un- soundness. It was only a question of time when a relapse would occur.
 Conditions have been growing sound CT during recent months and are to- day thoroughly sound. It is reasonable to expect that the next change will De toward not lessened but increased activity. & fear imitation They point to our pos session of $4,247. 100000 of gold. to the continued inflow of the metal at the rate of more than S1,000,000 daily. to our federal reserve banking reserves of 80 per cent, to the diminished "earn- inss assets" of our federal reserve banks and to the prospect of cheaper money. Most men of practical turn of mind, however, believe that past experineces will deter imitation.
 Much is being said about migration of British and French funds. following the flight of German funds, to this country. The Bank of France has this month raised its rate from to 5M per cent and then to per cent. Francs again touched a new low level and Sterling also declined More gold is of the flight of European capital, espe- cially as this weeks proceedings in the House of Commons clearly foretell the advent of a labor government in Britain.
 Af .nf fxxyr rfE fr s- picture? believe there are. Tn the first place. it is most unlikely that a labor government will turn Britain topsy turvy. Ramsay MacDon- aid. as prime minister, will prove no firebrand. The labor party will not tfon distasteful to either the liberals or the conservatives. The outflow of capital from Britain may not continue much longer.
 In the second place, there is at least a prospect that the conference now sitting in Europe under the chairman ship of General Dawes will be able to evolve some workable plan for stem ming the German debacle. All the principally interested parties are in . more tractable frame of mind today than ever before. Should this optimistic hope be fulfilled, we can count upon the lending of very large amounts of
 
 tries, thus causing a cessation of our gold imports and perhaps some con- siderable outflow.
 Meanwhile, business Is moving along here on a even keehN So are the secur- tty markets.
 Caution is still the prevailing key note. The labor department reports a slight decline in wholesale prices dur ing December. It is significant that manufacturers of certain classes of cot ton goods announce no advance in prices for next season, notwithstanding lhat raw material quotations have ad- Vanced materially. Many merchants are now invading New York, Chicago and other primary markets, but the common testimony is that orders are lhis tends to hold activity in check, sut 1t is healthy condition.
 The steel industry reports somewhat trser orders and the price trend is l'rward.
 The oil industry appears to be ready change it's whole complexion
 Judging from the continued stream of '.n creased dividends, a wide variety of Industries have been doing a profitable ,esness and figure upon having sat-
 ctory results this year.
 rain prices have done better Not nexpectedly, cotton has again moved 'zegularly. British spinners have laid n relatively large supplies and manu- facturing operations here have been on a curtailed scale for some time, so hat the prediction of fabulous quota ions for the south's product may not be fulfilled.
 Domestic political developments are regarded in business and financial cir cles as encouraging. The demand for lower taxation is rolling in upon Wash lngton with what should prove ire sistible force.
 President Coolidge, it is generally conceded, is steadily gaining in strength as the likely republican candi- date, with McAdoo coming to the front pf the democratic party. The expecta- lion at this stage is that Coolidge will win, and business and financial lead CTS are making their calcuations ac- cordingly. What James J. Hill would have called radical ghost dancing" is losing it's power to terrify.
 Businesswise, courage is likely to prove more profitable than tiimidity.
 Copyright. 1924, by B. c. Forbes)