Evening star., 1924-09-14
The Real Issue in Europe

my own guess is that the speech OF
Macdonald in Geneva will pretty
promptly lead to the elimination Of
Herriot, because he has failed to get
from Britain what the French as a
people regard as tho indispensable
and irreducible minimum of assur-
ance. Macdonald has repudiated the
obligation-as the French see it
inherent in the Anglo French Amer
lean agreement at Paris that France
should surrender the Rhine barrier
and receive in return a treaty of
assurance against German aggres-
sion.
In this situation France will react,
I venture to guess, to a system of
alliances and of increased not dimin-
ished military establishment. In
this she will have the support of
the continental States, Belgium Po-
land, Czechoslovakia, Jugoslavia
and Rumania, nations which find
themselves in the same condition as
France with respect to their neigh
bors. The alignment may come at
once at Geneva or eventually in some
international conference such as Is
now proposed. But 1t must come be-
cause community Of dangers will make
community OF policy.
Does this mean the end Of the
French entente and the COM
piete W1tnQTd"dl OIL Britain from the
continent? i cannot believe this, be-
cause British interest still remains
enormous. Another European war
might involve Britain, would almost
certainly involve her, even IL she
were free of all entangling contracts.
And it's consequences, whether she
were a belligerent or not. would be
disastrous. if not fatal, to British
prosperity, since it would close Euro
M ms ri a. NTH dnc
European purchasing power. And II
in such a war Germany regained
European hegemony. politically and
economically, Britain would be men,
aced instantly and utterly.
Would Restore 1914 situation.
In the end, then, I cannot see any
escape on the British side from some
form of guarantee for the mainte-
nance of peace, some sort of an OBJ
legation to use her feet and army
against any wanton and willful
attack upon European peace, to de-
fcnd France and Belgium against a
German attack. which is the more
menacing because France and Bel
gium have in good faith accepted
arbitration as the method of settling
International differences. The alter
native. as l have said. is the creation
of continental system of alliances.
France, Belgium. the Little Entente
and Poland, which, as the British
argue quite justly. must in due course
of time beget yet another combina-
tion and restore the situation Of 1914.
Macdonald at Geneva is just where
Lloyd George was at Genoa: his
thesis is Identical, peace is to be in
sured not by force expressed in mu-
tual guarantees of certain nations
acceptance of the principle OF ar
bitration. compulsory only in the
sense that all nations agree to it in
advance, an abstract theory. wholly
conSonant with British interests and
conceptions,
But he Is advocating this principle
to Europe made up of nations some
of which have been many times in
vaded and several Of which have long
been deprived of their independence
and all of whom have very sound rea-
sons for believing that what has
happened to them may happen again
and will unless they rely upon phys
ical as we'll moral strength to
protect themselves. He is talking
from country which has not been in
vaded for nine centuries to countries
which are still painfully striving to
rebuild recent ruins or reconstruct ma
long servitude, and he is asking them
to accept system, which. if it does
not work, will leave them helpless in
the face of impending ruin without
even the semblance of a promise Of
British assistance.
British Position Logical.
You must see, of course. the logic
IF the British situation If Britain
commits herself to the support of
France in case of German attack
France may in the end invite that at
tack, perhaps she has already by the
Ruhr operation; that is, at least. what
The British argue. The use Of British
armies to maintain peace might in fact
be their use to maintain French policy
and French interests. What the Brit
ish seek is insurance against the use
OF their own resources merely to serve
the interests of another nation. The
very unity of the British Empire might
be compromised if the Dominions were
asked to cross the seas to share in the
terrible costs of another European
war, which came about through the
rivalries of European states, leading
in the end to the act of formal aggres-
sion on the part of one, but in reality
resulting from reciprocal acts of both.
From the British point of view any
form of guarantee amounts in a meas
ure to a blank check, to pooling ma
tional interests, to supporting another
country in the consequences of all of
its policies, some of which may not in
themselves be such as to command ap-
proval. If war came through the sin
gle. isolated, naked act of aggression
of one country without any sequence
of events, a guarantee would be simple,
safe and above debate. But war does
not always or usually come that way
It frequently comes slowly as rivalrieS
and clashes of interest create the
necessary antagonism until something
suddenly precipitates an explosion But
the guaranteeing nation remains bound,
helpless. committed.
Their Existence at Stake.
On the other hand, when war does
come, it threatens instantly the exis-
tence Of continental states. Belgium,
for example, woke to find herself the
field of battle between two enemies,
dc spite her reliance upon a treaty of
guaranteed neutrality quite as solemn
and sacred as any arbitration COM
pact for the future could be. What
use, then, to urge Belgium to avoid al
liances and rely upon written words?
And France was invaded through
Belgium, although trusting in some
part to the treaties, she had failed to
fortify her northern as we'll as her
sastern boundaries.
The great benefit of the Geneva dis
cussion has been that it put the whole
question clearly before the world
The British and the continental views
are disclosed In their entirety, the
fundamental divergencies are dis
closed absolutely. And mere expos
ure of these divergencies establishes
the fact that neither can prevail,
that the sole possibility of any inter-
national arrangement to preserve
peace must result from the compro.