Evening star., 1924-10-16
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.


BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
MIDWEST AMERICA, October 1s.-
How, 1t may be asked. can any cor
respondent in a quick journey across
the continent. stopping a day or two
in State. gauge 1.-The political senti-
ment thereof? What Is the value of
prediction polls and analysis made
by itinerant reporters?
These are natural questions and
are asked in every campaign when
ever any correspondent undertakes
the risks Of political prophecy. Since
the writer began his tour, for in
stance, he has noted one or two COM
ment's that he did not visit in a par
ticular State, the Democratic or Re-
AS a matter OF fact, this correspond
ent deliberately avoided most of the
campaign managers of all parties.
There are political chieftains, of
course, who are honest with their
callers and there are others who try
purposely to mislead in the nope that
the dispatches written will have a
certain effect on their local situation.
Then there are political leaders who
express honest convictions, but they
are sometimes misled by their own
Information.
EvadeH Propaganda.
Not knowing the personal equation
of these local managers, for as a rule
they change with every campaign, it
has always been considered better
policy by this writer to waste no
time with men who merely wish to
pump him full of propaganda for
their own ends. Out in Nebraska,
In T.
regional manager for the La Toilette
minutes to discover that he regarded
the calls of all correspondents as SIM
ply splendid opportunity to broad
cast his own case.
How, then, does a correspondent op-
crate who enters a campaign with
the sole desire of getting the facts
and without any desire to affect the
outcome or to take sides? 1t is a
problem of acquaintance and friend
ship over a period of many years with
men who will not mislead, who en-
deavor to appraise a situation hon
estly. 1t is. of course, unthinkable
that any correspondent can, in a days
visit, know as much about any State
as the people living in it. But there
are persons resident in every State
who are saturated with their own
situation, who know from year to
year what is likely to happen in poll
tics, persons of balanced judgment
and wide acquaintance. persons who
mingie with all classes of people.
Their analysis counts for great
deal with this correspondent 1t has
proved sound in the campaigns of
previous years.
Depends on Reporters.
Again and again on the local news
papers are shrewd political reporters
who watch the various" headquarters
from day to day. who can tell you in
five minutes whether campaign
manager is whistling to keep up his
courage or really convinced his
figures are correct. In other cases,
one finds mutual friends of these
same campaign managers to whom at
the lunch or dinner table on previous
occasion the inside story has been
told. In other, words, the task OF
gathering information on politics is
the same as it is on anything else
a reporters job in finding out who
really is sin the know and piecing
together the viewpoints of several
people.
In one city this correspondent has
FIVE friends whose views on politics
do not agree. One is lawyer, one a
banker and one is labor leader, a
fourth is a settlement house worker
and a fifth is prominent in fraternal
circles. Before visiting that city,
letters were written appraising each
of the date the writer would arrive.
They had always kept their ears to
the ground. In that State. the writer
has never made prediction that
proved on election day to be wrong.
In some States. as for instance, Ne
braska, the correspondent consulted
% different sources of information in
Lincoln and Omaha.
No Prediction Infallibfe.
Nobody can. Of course, hope to pre-
dict with accuracy the outcome of the
situation in every State. The most
that can be done is to appraise the
general sentiment and give the un-
derlying psychology of it. Political
managers dislike to see stories pub
lished which give anything but a rosy
picture of their situations. Perhaps
it disheartens their workers. One
may sympathize with campaign
manager, but his is a poor case which
rests solely on what is published in
the last few weeks of a campaign.
1t is the writer's experience that
candidates are elected in spite of the
extravagant praise given them in the
last weeks OF a campaign, and even
President Coolidge may survive the
meaningless pun that has been
pushed as a slogan, Keep cool with
Coolidge" uch more effective have
been the billboard advertisements in
so many States with the two words
why changer in large letters ad-
dressed to the voter as an appeal to
retain Coolidge.
Have Basis for Belief.
Travelling the same ground year
after year, a writer builds up his ac-
quaintance everywhere with men of
judgment rather than partisans, rep
resentative men who mingle with the
people. not a few days or a few
weeks, but all the year around From
them and the constant contact which
q Washington correspondent keeps
through Congress with local situa-
tions, an appraisal can be made of
what is going on.
AS to polls and straw votes, they
are Of distinct value. The Literary
Digest poll is one Of the best ever
taken. With some few exceptions, it
ment in many States. The mac
curaiies are not due to the Digest
staff, but to the disinclination of
many people to mail back their bal
lots The writer talked with scores
of persons who threw their ballots
away rather than take the time to
fill them out. For this reason, one
cannot always tell the exact per-
centage of the probable vote. But
all the various polls put together
mean something. They are, after all,
straws which show the way tho wind
is blowing.
Copyright, 1oA.)
Rivera Gets Moroccan Post.