The Bozeman courier. (Bozeman, Mont.) 1919-1954, 1924-05-21
By L. r. Van Zelm
o Western Newspaper Unaoa

total last year; but the increase IS
more than accounted for by the figures
for New York City, which are more
than double those of a year ago. The
remainder of the country shows a
decrease of about l per cent in total
value, which probably represents 4
decrease Of about 10 per cent in
physical volume.
For the country as q whole. how
ever, present conditions give promise
of a well-sustained rate of activity
throughout this year. The longer
term outlook is necessarily a matter
of conjecture. The industry is, by its
very nature, subject to wide fiunctua-
tiOns in activity, and is peculiarly
sensitive to changes in general bust
ness conditions ard t. variations in
! "osts. There are however, certain
features of recent reports which are
significant in this connection.
One of these is the increasing ir-
regularity of activity as between diff
ferent sections of the country, indicat-
ing that in some regions the shortage
of housing space has been nearly OF
quite overcome. The ir~regularity IS
especially marked as between urban
and rural districts, the former show.
ing n general much the greater ac-
tivity. This is natural in view of the
flow of population from the country
to the cities, and from the smaller
cities to the large industrial eenters.
The some set of factors is reflected
in the increasing relative volume of
residential construction. One of the
most familiar phases of the scarcity
Of housing space in recent years has
been the rising rents of houses and
apartments, particularly in the larger
cities.
The housing shortage" is the ex-
cess of demand for housing space. at
existing rem levels, over the amount
Of space available; and the progress
which is made toward supplying the
! shortage depends in part on the
course of rents, not only because the
level of rents influences the activity
of building, but because it influences
also the demand for space. Estimates
| of the building deficiency are FIRE.
quently based on the increase of ur-
= ban populations, with the assumption
r that the same proportion would natur
5 ally exist between population anC
q housing space as existed a few year,
c ago. The error in this assumption
lies IN the fact that, as long as rents
remain higher than they formerly
t were, a smaller relative amount o
space will be demanded. And unles.
relative building costs decline ap
preciably from present levels, rent
will remain higher than in past years
D On the other hand, barring highe
. costs, the rate of building may be ex
. pected to continue near present Level
0 until rents decline sufficiently :
diminish the incentive to further cor
struction.
4 Such a decrease in rents, however
IS would in turn operate to stimulat
of the demand for space,-in other word,
E. to p%rOlong the existence of the hou:
III ing shortage. The decline in buildin
Of activity, therefore, will probably
gradual, until the supply of space
ultimately brought into equilibrium {
rents and construction costs.
Oh A large volume of constructio
then, may be anticipated for SON
IL time to come. It's result will nece
g. sarlly be a continued stimulation
industrial and commercial activit
Is along many lines. Both on accou-
p OF its actual size and on account
the variety of its demand, building
in a peculiar degree a key industr
las and large construction operations.
-Or IN the last two years, tend not only
o promote activity in the industries a
me trades directly associated, but to pr
In vide a powerful stimulus to busine
the in general.