Evening star., 1924-09-21
this does not comprise all Of the
Coolidge expectations.
4 K X *

this does not comprise all OF the
Coolidge expectations.
4 * X X
Politicians were very much in
terested In an analysis OF the cleo
tion outlook by John Moody, sta
tistfcal writer, in recent state
ment. 1t was Mr.. Moody who in
September. 1916. estimated that
Wilson would be elected by 276
electoral votes as against 255 for
Hughes. The actual vote was PIT
to 254. In September, 1920. he
forecast an electoral vote of 399
to 132 in favor of Mr.. Harding.
whereas the actual figures proved
to be 404 to 127. Mr.. Moody sees
the radical vote of the East as a
deduction from the Democratic
vote. while in the West and South
he declares 1t is habitually a de-
duction from the Republican vote.
He said the Republican vote in
each State should be greater than
in 1922 and smaller than in 1920.
somewhat in proportion to the
changes shown in Maine.
The number Of electoral votes
which. according to the Maine re-
turns, should now swing to the
opposition party may be estimated
statistically. he says, between IA
and 90. Besides this, there are %
doubtful votes and the reputed 40
third party votes. He says the total
Republican loss from 1920 might
with perfectly reasonable inter
pretations of the figures vary
anywhere from 1877 to 1856. If the
third party takes 40 votes from
the Republican column and the re-
versed votes reach the maximum
of 80, and the entire % doubtful
votes go to Mr.. Davis, the result
would still be only 242 for Davis
against 249 for Coolidge.
If, on the other hand, he says,
the reversed votes should be at
the minimum of "A and the doubt
full % go to Mr.. Coolidge and the
40 to Senator La Toilette, then
the result would be 290 to 201 in
favor of Mr.. Coolidge.
The La Toilette leaders are
claiming at least two-thirds of the
farmer States west of the Missis
sippi River-Wisconsin, Illinois,
probably Michigan and Indiana
and insist that Senator La Fol-
lette will be swept into the White
House by a huge popular vote.
They are baSing this claim upon
reports of farm leaders and or
ganizers. substantiated by n poll
made by a farm journal of enor-
nous circulation. They quote
Charles A. Lyman, former secre-
tary of the National Board of
Farm Organization, as claiming
that farmers throughout the coun-
try are disgusted with the rec
ords of the old parties and are
turning to the Independent Pro-
gressive movement as the only
one understanding and offering to
them q basic solution of their
problems. Mr.. Lyman claims that
practically all State farmer union
presidents are strongly for La
Toilette and Wheeler, with many
State range masters, farm bureau
and cooperative leaders lending
their support to the Progressive
movement.
REPORTS from New York indi-
Gated yesterday the probability
that Gov. Alfred f. Smith will be
forced into accepting renomina-
tion as governor, and there was
consequent jubilation in Demo-
cratic quarters. 1t is no secret
that many we'll informed Demo-
cratic leaders are very dubious Of
success of either the State or ma
tional ticket in New York in No
vember. Those who feel this way
think that if the situation can be
saved on the State ticket it Will
only be with the aid of Gov. Smith,
carrying with it the hope that he
might help the national ticket pull
through.
Gov. Smith is generally believed
to entertain future political am