Evening star., 1924-04-18
TRADE CONFIDENCE
INSPIRED BY DAWES
Report Bearing His Name on Ger.
man Reparations Encouraging
to Commerce.
o. S. MANUFACTURERS VIEW
Germany Held No Longer Negli.
gible Business Factor.
BY j. G. ROYLE.

Opportunity for a thorough analy-
sis of the terms of the Dawes plan
for the payment of German repara-
tions and the rehabilitation of Ger
man industry has resulted in a de-
cided spread of confidence in COM
merce and trade circles in this coun-
try. The concrete effects of the plan
still are in the lap of the future, but
the feeling of satisfaction among ex-
porters. importers, producers and
manufacturers is thoroughly in evil
dence.
The first reaction to the Dawes pro-
posals carried with it to merchants
OF this country the immediate fear
that world markets would be swamp
ed with flood of cheaply produced
German goods. The danger from this
source was not so imminent in Amer
lean trading centers as in other mar
ketS throughout the world. This fear,
however, was wiped out when dis
tributors and exporters had a chance
TO estimate the real hold which Amer
lean commerce had gained in foreign
markets since the war.
View of Manufacturers.
Manufacturers now realize that they
have been able to more than hold
their own against European competi-
ton, even at Il time when French,
German, Belgian and southern Eu-
ropean goods were being turned out
by workmen paid in deprecated
currency. The Dawes plan gives
every possibility of a stabilization of
the German monetary system, and
this fact has encouraged American
producers. The German manufac-
turer, they now see, can no longer
pay his workmen in marks at a de-
prtciated rate and sell his goods for
dollars in world markets in com
petition with goods made by dollar
workmen.
Moreover, it is being borne in on
American business men that for every
dollars worth of goods which Ger
many turns out she must pay TO the
producers of this country n certain
proportion for raw materials This
mas mas lts most Immediate bearing on
the wheat growers. cotton growers
ana copper producers of this country
There is heavy surplus of cereals
ana copper now in the hands of
American producers. Muct of the dis
tress of the wheat growers has been
oue to the slackneSS of the foreign
demand and any Improvement in in
duStrial conditions in Germany and
the reflection of that Improvement on
the remainder of Europe. it is felt
Will have a decided effect on the flu
ture sales of these products abroad.
Germany to Become Buyer.
Germany, it is well known, has in
preparation a most ella borate plan
for electrical power DEVELOPMENT
rms VIII involve the purchase OF
millions of pounds of raw copper and
copper products, and eventually mean
reduction in surplus stocks which
Will relieve the pressure on prices
which has existed since the time
n
red NETS as fast as il could be mined
and Smelted.
These effects, American producers
rea lie, necessarily must be psyche
logical for months to come. The
Dawes plan presupposes the evacua-
tion of the Ruhr, but it is still unde-
cided when such an abandonment by
the French of this tremendously rich
Industrial district on which the man
ufactures of the remainder of Ger
many so largely depends will take
place.
When it does take place Germany
plans to make the region produce
more in industrial efficiency than ever
before. A super-power system, link ed
by various industrial units into one
vast network of power wires eventu-
ally will run from the coal mines of
the Ruhr to the factories of the other
sections. This will speed up the buy
ing of American raw materials, but
months must elapse before the vol
ume of purchases can make itself
fully felt.
Negligible No Longer.
Germany has been negligible fac
tor in the markets of Central and
South America since the war. Bust
ness and banking connection in
BuenoS Aires, NfXico and other coun-
tries of the weSs:rn hemisphere where
Berlin and Frankfort once were domi-
mating factors have been broken and
the last three years have given Ameri-
can exporters a hold on the trade of
the countries south of the equator
which they are confident they can
maintain in the face of any European
competition.
The revival Of business with Rus
sia undoubtedly will play a part in
German rehabilitation. but even in
this case. payment for sbme time to
come must necessarily be in goods
rather than in money, whereas Amer
ica is in a position to insist that she
have cash customers for her COM
modities.
The effect of the Dawes plan. how
ever, will be none the less real be-
cause it is mental rather than phys
ical. Confidence is the basis of all
business. The difference between
prosperity and panic, as represented
in actual sales in panic and normal
years, is less than Is per cent. But
the adoption of the Dawes plan is
leading to restoration of confidence
which has been the one factor lacked
by foreign trade since 1918.