Evening star., 1924-11-03
UNCERTAINTY ON ELECTION EVE
BESETS HEADS OF ALL PARTIES
Coolidge Expected to Win, But Number of Elements
Make Doubtful States More Mysterious
to Political Prophets.

one of the most capable, though
frankly Republican, foreshadowers OF
Tuesdays results. He assigns Cool
idse 326 electoral votes. a majority
Of so in the college. Yet this same
astute observer tabulates, IL doubtful
States-Maryland, Missouri, Mime
sofa, Nebraska, Washington, Ari-
zona, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Montana, Nevada and New
any number of other analysts have
tabulated 16 or Is doubtful States,
totaling an electoral vote of any
where from 100 to 1873. The sig
nificant thing about these estimates is
their revelation OF expert divergence.
If the 1915 election proved to be so
close that the vote Of a single State
california, 13) was necessary to de-
eide it, it is obvious that this years
three-cornered contest, which finds a
dozen States doubtful in the opinion
of a competent Republican observer,
is crammed with uncertainty. Many
people have forgotten that California,
which gave Wilson a majority of
only 1906, was only one of a cluster
of exceedingly close States. Hughes
won Minnesota by only 392 votes and
New Hampshire went Democratic by
the absurd margin Of Sc in a total
vote of 1880. Hughes carried Della
ware by 1858; West Virginia by 2,721
and Indiana by only 6,942. Wilson's
majority nNew Mexico was $3.50,
in Nevada 5:649 and in Wyoming
6.618. Hughes captured South Da-
kota by only 5,026. Other States.
labeled doubtful in 1924. were won
by Wilson or Hughes in 1916 by ma
jorities below 1900. Iowa, with no
La Toilette or Brookhart in the field,
was carried for Hughes by merely
$3.50. Four years later Harding
carried Iowa by more than 100000.
1t takes little imagination to realize
that with party lines cut into shreds
in 1924 "upsets' in States that were
close in 1916 are easily within the
range Of practical possibilities.
Elements of Doubt.
Two months ago Chairman Butler
of the Republican national committee
estimated that Coolidge and Dawes
would obtain 404 votes in the cleo
toral college. The G.. o. P. leaders
final estimate is that they will have
more than 35O." What caused Mr.
Butler to revise his original figures
downward is the knowledge, which
he shares with managers of other
parties, that the campaign has wound
up, LOT many reasons, IN COnSlQera Die
uncertainty. This uncertainty springs
from certain major causes, among
them these:
1. The unexpected dimensions of
the La Toilette popular vote.
,. The incalculable influence Of the
ku klux klan in various States-here
a Republican asset, there a Demo
cratic asset
8. The immeasurabie size of the
silent" or independent, vote.
4. The underlined extent to which
the country has been stirred by the
Democrats principal issue. viz cor
ruption" in the Republican admins
tration.
Mr.. Davis closing speech a.
Carnegie Hall in New York on Satur-
day night-admitted by friend and
foe to have been the finest effort OF
his Observation-Disclosures that Demo
cratic hopes are pinned primarily, If
not exclusively. on the country's re-
sentiment of dishonesty in govern
ment." If the Nation is not going to
depose Mr.. Coolidge on that issue
Democrats cherish no real hope that
their other big campaign arguments
on foreign policy and the tariff-will
prove to be victorious battle cries.
Copyright, 1924