Evening star., 1924-11-02

Continued from First Page.)
the Reichstag and to the new elec.
ton, which is now fixed for December
= And it is generally recognized not
alone throughout Germany. but al
over Europe, that the main issue OF
this election will be, not alone the
Dawes plan, but the permanence oi
the republic itself.
Recall OF Kaiser Unlikely.
A sweeping Nationalist victory now
could hardly fail to lead directly to
some form of monarchial restoration.
The recall of the kaiser is utterly
unlikely; even the employment OF
the crown prince is hardly to be ex-
pected, but one of his sons might
be made sovereign, or the decision
might be reached to pass over the
House of Hohenzollern and turn to
that of Wittelsbach, thus replacing
the PruSsian by the Ravarian royal
family. But, as in the French situ-
alton, the very absence of clever
program and the rivalries between
dynasties and princes offer serious
obstacles.
Moreover. such a Nationalist tri-
umph would. beyond much doubt
side of Germany. 1t would shake
the confidence of the financial world
since the Nationalists are committed
up to the hilt to a reputation of the
Dawes plan, and it would also agitate
the political world, for the new rulers
also are on record as advocates OF
a war of revenge upon France. That
France, Belgium, Czechoslovakia and
Poland would take alarm and seek
fA r,f 14f1 re.;x
not be doubted. A reputation Of the
Dawes plan. too. would not only leave
France with her hands free to re-
sumo the occupation of the Ruhr, but
it would deprive the British Of any
ground for protesting French action
Peace Passionately Desired.
In reality, a triumph of reaction in
Germany now would have many re-
semblances to the return of Napoleon
from Elba, which led, not to the ac-
ceptance by Europe of the accom-
pl1shed fact of the restoration of his
empire, but to the brief campaign
which terminated in the battle OF
Waterloo. Since, moreover, the whole
of Europe, and of the world for that
matter, passionately desires peace
with the triumph of those elements
in Germany which the world holds
responsible for the recent struggle
and knows to be responsible for the
cotemporary preaching of a new wa,
of revenge. German isolation would
become complete again and Germany
would be held to be the one menace
to European peace.
Beyond much question the conse.
quences of such a reactionary tri.
umph would be disastrous in the ex-
treme, primarily for Germany, but
hardly less so for Europe. Most, il
not all, of the solid gain for peace
and order in Europe which consti.
tutes the outstanding feature Of tn.
present year would be lost. Those
elements in France which believe
Germany unchanging and always des.
tined to be menace would find ir
events a confirmation of their fore.
casts, and German reactionary sue.
cess would be a. aCsfgnal for a similar
triumph Of corresponding elements il
France.
1t is hard to avoid the conclusion
therefore, that the future of Europ,
will be decided at the Forthcoming
election in Germany. A victory fol-
the moderate elements, for the Dave,
plan. the defeat of the junker an<
nationalists elements, will be &C
cepted all over Europe as proof tina
sanity has at last returned to Ger
Auduy anu ludl the WOESC hangers o
the contemporary period are at
close. We shall have a certain, 4
perhaps gradual, settling down, on,
detail Of which will surely be the ap
pearance Of Germany at Geneva in tn,
situation of a great power.
Another War on Horizon.
On the other hand, a victory by tn,
nation alistS. led by Turpitz, Luden
dorR and many others whose name.
have internationally an evil signifi
cance, must in the very nature o
things, as I have said. have almos
incalculable consequences, not tn,
least of which may be a new invasion
of Germany and another war. Ant
even If these extreme calamities ar
escaped, there can hardly be any es
cape from the consequences Of tn,
financial and economic upheavali
which would attend a national repu
dfation OF tho Dawes plan, with al
itS various details. >including the re
cent $500, ,000, 600 loan, the money fol