The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-07-28
By HERBERT COREY

By hEKbEhI CUhEt
 WASHINGTON, D. O., July 27.- At the risk of offending Dr. Charles Frederick Marvin it shall be revealed that the Taft blizzard was an official one, after all. It was properly fore casted. But in those days there was still optimist in the United States weather bureau and he oyerruled the opinion of the ordained forecasters and wrote weather prediction which for cheer and brightness and sunny cer- tainty that the weather simply could not play a dirty trick on such an aus picious occasion has never been sur passed.
 And the next day it showed. Never was such a wet, gummy,. thick snow. The Washington drug stores had run out of chillblain cures by 10 o'clock the morning of Inauguration Day.
 Hard Blow For Bureau-But
 If the rubber boots which were de- manded but not supplied had been heaped up they would have buried the Washington monument. The cracking sound observed as the Inauguration Day parade slushed along Pennsylvania avenue on its mission to convoy Mir. Taft to the White House might have been mistaken for static. but it wasn't t. 1t was the Rumination of the marchers about. the weather bureau.
 Tt was too bad,'' observed Dr. Mar win, gloomily. Tt gave the weather bureau a black eye"
 Which it emphatically did. But out of evil good may come. Today q weather bureaucrat who would sug- gest that a forecast be written on the basis of hope rather than probabilities would have a large, active dog set on him. The forecasters are permitted to write their own prophecies without in- terference from above and are held re- sponsible for them. Not that they are always right
 Right Times Out Of 10
 Not very long ago,' said Dr. Mar yin, sadly, "a big storm struck us which was totally unexpected" 7
 For all that, the United States weather bureau is right eight times out of ten, which is pretty good record. The study of meteorology is progressing continually, also, and is moving for ward toward the hoped for 100 per cent accuracy. Not that Dr. Marvin suggests that complete certainty will ever be attained. Certainly it will. not until the weather bureau is given sufficient funds with which to operate. It is one of the governments starved children now, as disclosed by the an- nual report to the president of the chief of the bureau: a.
 Practically every one of its field stations is operating under the mini mum number of personnel, Ofter in crowded offices and with no flexibility to meet temporary losses from sick ness, absence on leave and thrilled va- cancies. What happens is overtime hours of work and loss of vacations, with corresponding fatigue, discourage ment, dissatisfaction and inefficiency. Repairs and repainting have been necessarily postponed from year to year. On account of lack of funds the in- spection of cooperative stations has been badly handicapped"
 How Service Is Maintained
 In spite of the refusal of Congress to grant the needed money the United States weather bureau is doing more than that of any other nation, thanks in part at least volunteer and unpaid for aid. It has 205s stations of the first order in which a salaried per sonnel is maintained and approximately 5000 cooperative stations where obser- vations are made by persons who are willing to aid. Mexico and Canada furnish accurate and prompt weather observations in return for similar serV- ice.
 The value of the weather forecasts is probably not to be measured in money. Seamen are warned of storms, cities are told to prepare for heavy snows, farmers are advised of condi- tions which will affect harvest or planting and stockmen and fruitgrow- CTS of coming cold waves. The Red Cross has gone on record repeatedly as to its appreciation of the timely warn ings which have enabled it to save life in flood times, and now that aerial navigation is increasing the weather bureau has added to its service a sys- tenn of kites and pilot balloons by means of which the 'fliers can be warn ed of conditions which affect their safe ty. Fy
 Weather FOrecasting Theory
 Almost every one understands in a general way the theory on which wealth CT forecasting in based. Weather moves, broadly speaking, from the west to the east, the movement being connected with the rotation of the earth on it's axis. If that were all it would be an easy matter for the observers to re- port the areas of high and low pressure, the patches of cold, wet or hot weather, which would in time be rotated and de- canted. But storms are deflected by causes which are not always thorough ly understood. Sometimes they hang around the same neighborhoOd until