Evening star., 1924-09-09
OUTLOOK IS BRIGHT.
FOR DAIRY PROFITS
Farmers Facing Good Times
for Long Period-Cost of
Production Lower.
by j. C. ROYLE.

Special Dispatch TO The Star.
NEW YORK, September 9.-The
only real worry in the minds of the
dairy men of the country today is
the birth rate. And mono of them are
exhibiting any new wrinkles over that
The reason of their freedom from
worry is that they have finally
grasped the truth that high and low
= costs of production are equally as
j important as the high or low prices
paid for their products.
There is going to be plenty OF milk.
At the same time prices for dairy
products can be expected to continue
on a profitable basis for some years
to come, provided expansion of the
industry does not proceed more
rapidly than the growth of popula-
tion. Gains in production, according
to survey by the Blue Valley
Creamery Institute, probably will not
be so extensive as in the period since
1920. But higher cost of forage may
cut the margin of profits in the next
year.
Milk Output IncreaSes.
The low cost of feed and efforts
to diversity agriculture in the grain
producing States resulted in heavy
increase in the last three years. In
1928 gross milk production in this
country showed an increase of 21
per cent over lHdI ol l5EU dHu Tie
per capita production. allowing for
increase in population, was Is per
cent higher. Last year the milk pro-
duced was sufficient to furnish SO
gallons of milk, II pounds of butter,
SO pounds of cheese, 1925 pounds of
condensed and evaporated milk and
2.66 gallons of ice cream for every
individual inhabitant.
The 1924 production, unless all
predictions go awry, will be even
larger. Even 50 the dairy products
turned out will not be quite sufficient
for the American consumers. Last
year America imported milk products.
Next year this condition may be re-
placed by an export balance. A sur
vey by the Department of Agricul-
ture shows that in the middle of this
year there were 24.6 per cent as
many one and two-year-old heiffers
on dairy farms in this country as
there were dairy cows in milk. This
is more than d replacement percent
age and as these heifers come into
production, they will tend to increase
milk production.
Butter and Cheese Down.
On the other side of the picture,
wholesale prices of butter are 6 cents
pound lower than they were
year ago and cheese is nearly cents
pound cheaper. The countrywide
average of prices paid to producers
for fluid milk is about per cent
under that of September, 1923. At the
same time, corn prices are 3S per
cent higher than last year, oats are
up 80 per cent and bran Is per cent.
These facts may tend to check the
advent of new producers into the
daily field, especially since the in
crease in output has been due not so
20 but 90 11,,,
duction per cow due to liberal feed
ing and better care. But the number
of milk COWS added to dairy herds
has not been much greater than the
longtime average rate of increase.
Lower prices will result in closer
culling of herds to eliminate cows
which might produce profitably at
would show loss at present cost of
feeds.
Enormous Butter Stocks.
Production is still large, however,
and this has resulted in the accom-
modation OF enormous stocks of butter,
cheese and condensed milk in storage
The important thing is that these
products held in reserve were pro-
duced at low cost as a result of good
pasturage SO that net returns to dairy
men even at present prices are as
large as they would have been at
higher prices and present feed costs.
Therefore the public faces the
probability of securing dairy products
at reasonable prices which still will
yield satisfactory margins of profit
to the producers.
The Immediate outlook for prices
is dominated by seasonal conditions
The seasonal decrease is coming, but
cool weather and ample rains have
helped keep milk flow going in the
Middle West. Dry weather in some
of the fluid milk districts of the East
and Far West are offsetting this to
some extent. If weather conditions
continue favorable it is probable the
usual Autumn advance in dairy prod
ucts will not appear as early as usual
and is likely to be less abrupt than
last year.
Watch Marketing Plan.
Dairymen are watching closely the
progress of the Grain Mark citing Com
pany, formed by merging five large
grain marketing concerns. If this
project is successful, there is every
probability that a similar corpora
tion will take over the marketing of
dairy products by absorption of ex-
listing marketing agencies which
eventually will come under producer
control Sponsors of this plan are
now engaged in ironing out problems
of territorial distribution.