The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-07-20
LA TOILETTE BID "UPSETS FIGURES . OF BIG PARTIES
Republicans Are Fighting
 Against Possible Ref erence To Congress
By THOMAS L. STOKES Especial Leased 10 Age. Herald. ]

WASHINGTON, July 19.-The La Toilette campaign, given it's openini boost at the meeting here on nationa committee, and Senator Wheeler's ac ceptance of the vice presidential nomi nation, has assumed such stature al ready that republican and democratic leaders are beginning to get down tS cold figures to see at which end of tht horn they will come out.
 The prospect is not so alluring fol the two great parties as it was some few months ago, before the Wisconsin storm began to show it's head in thu northwest. Looking at the slate con seryatively, here are the prospects oi this strange political situation: 'e
 Make Big Predictions,
 LaFollette managers are making bis predictions. Their conservative leaders count as many as 12 states on the band wagon. That is one think. But ever the most conservative of the democrats and republicans, from the standpoint of the new movements chances, give La Toilette at least five states, Wisconson Montana. Minnesota, North and South Dakota. .'1~.
 Granting that low estimate, look al the lineup. If LaFollette carries those states, he will take 30 votes into the electoral collgee. Not so many, as to. tals go, but the resulting situation is what counts. .., ...
 Take the Coolidge situation. If La Toilette wins in five states, Coolidge must carry every one of the Republican states, and every one of the doubtful states to prevent the election being thrown into the house. If Coolidge loses more than one important state, outside those conceded to Davis and La Fol lette, he falls below the 266 necessary for choice, and the select:~n falls to congress.
 House Is Deadlocked
 This is what Coolidge managers are fighting against, for the house is dead locked, with 9 Republican votes, 20 Democratic, 1 for La Toilette, and 25 necessary for choice. Five states are equally divided in their state delega- tions between Democrats and Repub- icans, and cannot. vote. The complex ion of the vote of each state in an cleo tion in the house is determined by the preponderance of Democrats or Repub. licans. ... =.
 ,-... Line.Up Of States
 The lineup of states, with their cleo toral votes is as follows;
 Reasonably, sure Republican: Cali fornia, 13; Connecticut. z; Illinois, 29 Kansas 10; Maine, 6; Massachusetts, 1S;. Pennsylvania, 38; Utah, 4; Yer. mont, 4 Rhode Island, s; and New Hampshire, 4. Total, 13S.
 Reasonable sure Democratic: Ala. bama, 12; Arizona, 8; Arkansas, g; Florida, 6; Georgia, fl; Kentucky, 13 Louisiana TO 1; Maryland, 8; Missis- sippi, 10: Missouri, IS; Nebraska, 8: Nevada, 3; New Mexico. g.. North Car olina, .12; Oklahoma, 10; South Caro. lima, g., Tennessee, 12:' Texas, 20; Vir- ginia, 12, and West Virginia, s. Total, 200. s3 ,.t,,-
 The doubtful states are New York, 46; New Jetsey, A; Ohio. 24.; Indiana, 10; Oregon, 5; Washington. T; Michi- gan, 15; Iowa, 13; Colorads, 6 6;SDela. ware, 8; Idaho, 4 :; Wyoming, 8. Total. 154.. The other five are conceded to La Toilette.
 La Toilette has chance in six of these doubtful states, Idaho, Wyo- ming, Michigan, Oregon, Washington, and Iowa. The Democrats have a chance in six others, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, and Delaware.
 Coolidge needs them all to get 266 votes. 4 loss of 26 would put the Re. publication below the limit, throwing the choice to the house.