Evening star., 1924-12-31

last 10 years shows very clearly
what has taken place in this regard
ss-5 49, 1913 is5s 81 ss. ss,7 * 's,' * 5s,'
~ 1920 1921 1g 1ssa 1s ,sss 5ss sss'
| These low money rates have caused
banks to buy bonds with their surplus
| funds and we have witnessed a very
| good bond year. Yields of active
bonds closed December 81, 1923, with
an average of 5.39 per cent and are
| closing this year about 0.4 points
| lower. OF course. the nearer we get
| to the top, the. less opportunity there
is for rurther rises. but l should not
be surprised in some instances to
see even higher prices in 1925 than
| in 1924.
| The stock market continued to
work in a sidewise manner until the
| nominations took place in June. When
| it was seen that both of the major
| parties selected good men, the bank
| ing interests took courage and began
TO lay constructive programs for
financing large developments. The
actual business, however, was held
back until election day. When it
| was found that President Coolidge
was elected by such "a tremendous
! p>~ular vote, the throttle was opened
wide an the stock market had a tre-
| mendous volume of business. or
course, this Business was largely
| made up of orders which had been
! held back, like a stream of water.
| pending the counting of the ballots.
| When the dam was removed the food
| of orders came forth, and we WITT
| messed some of the heaviest days in
the history of the New York Stock
| Exchange.
1 dar I, /, l,,,lI
| market has eliminated or whether
| 1925 will see even higher prices.
! Based on experiences of previous bull
| markets, l believe that 1925 will see
| higher prices in the case of many
| securities than was witnessed in the
| best days of 1924.
1928 Bull Market Like 1900.
| / remember very we'll the election
| of 1900, when bull market suddenly
developed under circumstances very
much like those of this November. 1t
went on for some days and then re-
acted or points, continuing irreg-
ularly into December. Then the ad-
vance again started, and with the
opening of the exchange on January
IL all previous records were broken
In January, however, the bull market
seemed to eliminate
w dii tolIcei LUCK pfOHtS very neaN-
| lily, with the result that some stocks
| reacted from 10 to 20 points. Dur
! ing February, when the United States
Steel combination was announced the
market moved only sidewise but very
soon rUmors began to come out that
| other consultations, especially rail-
road consultations, were under way,
and prices rose from 20 to 80 points
during March.
vances running as far as 25 points,
and the months trading was very
heavy. What was the widest bull
| market In the history of Wall Street
came on April 80, when 3,2S1226
shares changed hands. Very shortly
after this the Northern Pacific corner
developed and the crash came May 8.
All stocks were liquidated: tremen-
dous decreases took place, such as so
points in Delaware and Hudson, 81 in
Union Pacific and % in United States
Steel, and SO on down the list OF
course, there is no reason why we
should compare the present bull mar
ket with any particular one.
There were also bull markets in
1904 and 1905, and again in 1915, but
there are many points regarding the
present situation which resemble 1900
more than any stock market move
ment. We have cheap money, favor
able political situation and possibil-
tiles Of consolidation with the con-
sent and approval of all interests
Certainly at no tirne in history has
the stage been better set for a con-
tinuation of the upward movement,
which has been in process since June,
1924, and which really began in ear
nest with the elections.
Other Possibilities sighted.
When any reader. however, bases
hope for higher prices on a resem-
blance TO 1900, let him also remember
the disastrous crash that followed In
May 1901. That is to say. it is very
dangerous to use a part of a COM
parison without carrying it through
to conclusion. Although it is en-
tirely possible that 1925 will see a
great bull movement, yet II 80. 1t will
also witness drastic declines. The
trees never grow to the skies. Rock
cts go UP, but the sticks also come
down. The higher securities go, the
more dangerous 1t is to fool with
them. Hence, If we do have much
higher stock market prices in 1925,
We are likely to have a great col
lapse in 1925. This Is what statistics
| indicate and what the Babson chart
confirms.
AAiS ihcdHS tHdt great cars SHOULD
be exercised in the purchase of
| securities from now on, and that no
| one should be guided by tips of
rumors. All purchases should be
based on careful study or recon-
| mendations by people in whom you
have the greatest trust. If you can
not afford to get expert advice, go to
your local banker and ask him to
! help you. Otherwise, leave your
~ In tn fn
insurance, local mortgages or some
thing that you know about.
A great many people feel that
| money in the bank is idle. That Is q
great mistake. 1t Is being invested
| just the same whether 1t is on de-
pesit in the bank or in securities
| The main difference is that money in
the bank is being invested by people
| trained in the investing of money,
while money that you invest yourself
| is often lost. owing to your lack of
| knowledge and experience. Hence, ]
urge everybody to keep a good bank
account during 1925. Put more money
into life insurance, especially life an :
nuities, and il you have plenty OF
funds take local mortgage at 6 per
cent from someone whom you know
Stocks and bonds are not the only
form of investment. 1t is not neces-
sary to send money to Czechos1ovakia
or some other distant country in order
to invest It, Often the best pei
cent investment can be obtained or
a flrst mortgage on some house in
your neighborhood.
General Outlook for 1926.
AS we look forward to the new
year. we are confronted by two facts
one of which makes US timid and the
other makes US courageous. The fact
which makes me little timid is the
uncertainty as to European imports
! have already referred to this Euro
pean situation and need not expand