Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1924-11-16
WAR DEBTS DANGEROUS
: TO BRITAIN AND FRANCE
Settlement Would Bring Further Unity
and Continental Progress, Dis
agreement, Trouble.

or the foreign ministers added per-
sonal jealousy or pique to political
disagreements. Parting at Geneva,
too. Macdonald and Herriot were
pledged to meet in Paris this current
month to take up the great question
of French and allied Indebtedness to
Britain. Beyond lay the prospect OF
the May conference on the subject Of
ornaments.
Now arises the question OF how
Baldwin is to proceed. His party has
little real sympathy with the Geneva
protocol, and is almost certain to re-
ject 1t, or at least to plaster It with
reservations in the same manner and
spirit that the United States Senate
treated the original covenant of the
League of Nations. But this protocol
not only has the support of many
continental nations, but 1t also con-
stitutes the single guarantee France
has so far been able to extract from
any British prime minister. 1t does
pledge Britain in pretty unmistak-
able fashion to come to the aid OF
France and Belgium in the certiflca-
ton Of the league that they have
been again attacked as they were
in 1914.
Guarantee Unlikely.
And IL the new British cabinet re-
jects the protocol directly or indi-
rectly, then there will arise again
the old question Of what guarantee
Britain Will give France. Poincare
fought always for a direct alliance,
BRAND all but obtained a more or
less definite pledge for limited num-
Der of years in that unlucky Cannes
conference, which led to his resigna-
ton. Today IL is excessively doubt
full II any British ministry, Tory, Lib
eral or Labor, would dare to under
take any direct guarantee. Yet, un-
less the French Views are met In a
measure at least, France will hardly
listen to any proposals for a reduc-
ton of land ornaments and the pro-
posed conference is doomed in ad-
vance.
Then, in addition to the question Of
security, there is that Of debts. Just
before the Ruhr occupation Bonar
Law went to Paris and offered the
French, Italian and Belgian debtors
a cancellation OF all that the three
nations owed the British, save a sum
which would bridge the gap between
what Germany was to pay Britain
under the reparations agreement and
Britain had to pay the United States
The British payments to US in round
figures will amount to something
more than $170.000,o0o annually for
some SO years. Under the Spa agree
ment Britain Is entitled to % per
cent Of the German PREPARATIONS to-
tails. Assuming that Germany lives
up to the Dawes schedule. she will
pay around $685. 10000 annually and
the British share will be about S137,-
100000. That would leave about
s35.0Oo.OOo to be found by her allies,
Of which the French share would not
exceed S20,000.000. AS against that
France would be freed from a debt OF
a sum rapidly approaching $4,000
100000. or only a little less than that
sum on which the British are now
making annual payments to US. The
italian debt is smaller, but exceeds
$4,000, 900, 900.
The British offer was rejected at
that time, partly because there were
other details which the French and
but mainly because all three coun-
tries were resolved that they would
not pay Britain in advance of re-
ceiving payments from Germany.
This British offer was really directed
at France and was intended as an
argument against the occupation of
the Rhur. When the Rhur was oc-
cupied the offer naturally lapsed.
Debt Settlement Essential.
Since that time there have been
two changes, the British public has
more and more inclined to insist up
on the payment by France Of sub
stantial sums-that is, far larger
sums than the Bonar Law proposal
envisaged-while the French have
come to look more favorably upon
the offer itself. In the present state
Of French finance IT Is almost GER
tain that renewal of the offer of
two years ago would find ready ac-
ceptance. 1t certainly would IL the
British were willing to take an as
signment of French claims upon
German annual payments to this
amount
Until the allied debts are adjusted
no real settlement in Europe can be
complete The British government
Is pledged to a discussion of this
subject by the outgoing Labor cabi-
net. In reality the whole character
of the relations between the two
countries for the life of the existing
parllaments is likely to be determin-
ed by the nature Of those proposals
which the Baldwin government must
make within a short time. If the
Bonar law offer is not renewed, H.
on the contrary, much severer terms
are demanded, then the French are
tude toward Britain.
OF course. the French are not the
only nation concerned; Italy also
owes enormous sums, and the various
succession states, Rumania, Jugo-
slavia and Poland, are in the same
boat. And in case the new British
cabinet proves exigent it is easy to
see that the result will be closer re-
lations between the continental states
and an inevitable decline in British
influence. But to balance that there
is the British taxpayer. who Is ter
ribly burdened and, in addition, is
painfully conscious OF the fact that
he is paying his debt to tho United
States
British financial men have all along
perceived that there was little or nc
chance of collecting the continental
debt and even a grave question as to
the wisdom OF making the effort tc
| absorb the goods in which alone the
debts could be paid. Cancellation
would probably meet with little op.
position In the city. and perhaps now
| that the Tory majority is SO enor.
nous and power for period Of years
| assured Baldwin will risk momentary
| criticism to insure q final liquidation
of the whole matter.
Compensation Demand Sure.
But even II Britain is ready to con.
sent to cancellation 1t Is certain thai
| she is also bound to make demand,
| for compensation. OF course. there 1.
| no longer any question about tn,
Ruhr, for the French have abandoned
| the exploitation, pledged themselve.
| to get out within the year, and ar,
| already drawing out slowly but sure
ly. The Dawes agreement as modified
| in the London conference also make.
| any new occupation wholly unlikely
save in case of German action 81
| fragrant as to silence even British
protest, but there remain the matter!
| of armies and air forces as well a