Evening star., 1924-10-14
COOLIDGE WINNER
IF EAST HOLDS UP

la fOllelte> S western claims
observation-disclosures Now
Given 178 Votes.
This is the first Of tuo dispatches
analysing the trend Of political senti
n1ent in the States from Illinois to
the Pacific. tCritten aftcr. a riSit of
DdlId Laurence to virtually all the
States in that region in trip con-
Stunning so days Of actual invcstigd-
ton.
By DAVID LAWRENCE.
MIDWEST AMERICA. October H.
Crossing the political divide from the
agricultural West to the Industrial
East. with three weeks of the cam
paign still ahead, the territory left
behind may yet show some changes
here and there. but fundamentally
the lines of battle are drawn and the
tide of prejudice or favor, as the
case may be. has set in.
Four conclusions, however, can be
drawn at this time without much
expectation on the part of the writer
that subsequent developments in the
Western area will upset his analysis.
First, Senator Robert VI. La Toilette
has not been and will not be the de-
ciSive factor in the coming election
SO far as the West is concerned.
May Not Equni Roosevelt.
Second, the electoral vote OF La
Toilette will be less than that of
Col. Roosevelt in 1912. when he
polled SS electoral votes.
Third In several States, La Toilette
votes that he is in effect the ally of
pluralities seem certain to result from
the big detection of Democrats to the
third party ticket.
Fourth La Toilette will not get
enough votes to throw the election in
The House of Representatives for de-
cision unless John w. Davis shows a
greater strength than President Coo
lidge in the principal Eastern States
In that case, in all probability the
drift in the direction of Davis would
insure not merely a deadlock but
victory, because the East,
as a rule. is not spotty but general
ly of the same political mind.
Davis Not Sure of West.
Giving John w. Davis the 81 votes
of the normally Democratic States,
which mean Arizona. Oklahoma. Ten
nossee, Kentucky and Maryland, in
addition to the 1877 electoral votes
obtained by Gov. Cox in 1920 from
the solid South, the total for Davis
is us.
Now there are no States in the
West of which Davis can feel abso-
lutely sure. Or are there any West
ern States, with possibly two excep-
and North Dakota
Of which La Toilette can feel sure.
But assuming that La Toilette were
to be given all the States in which
he is running second, these would be
Iowa, Minnesota. Montana, Nebraska,
and they make with Wis
consin and North Dakota only So
electoral votes. Adding these So to
the 17S for Davis. the total is 236
w hich may be called the non-Coolidge
vote This leaves 295 votes. and if
Coolidge could get all of them he
would win. as 266 is the majority of
the electoral college of-,531.
What are the States which make
up that 295? 49,.
Some. like California and Oregon and
are typical of the Western
strength of President Coolidge, and
some, like Pennsylvania and Massachu-
setts and Maine, are the rock-ribbed
Republican areas. What concerns the
analyst is the doubtful States, or, to
put it in another way, those States
on which the Democrats this time pin
their hopes.
These are Indiana, Is; New. Jersey,
II; New York, As; Ohio. "a, and West
Virginia,>s. OF these, 106 votes, Presi-
dent Coolidge must carry all but 20.
tion would be thrown into the House
of Representatives, because even if all
the 80 went to Davis they would not be
enough with his 178 to make the neces-
sary 266. If he lost them to La Fol-
lette it would still mean a deadlock,
because no one of the three candidates
would have a majority.
All this would seem to indicate a
close result, but it must not be for
gotten that, at the outset of this
dispatch the writer assumed for pur-
poses of analysis that La Toilette
might get a maximum of 5S votes in
the West. That was the general
opinion in the East when this corre-
spondent began his tour. 1t was not
found to be true on actual investiga-
tion.
For the So votes are imaginary, and
while the popular vote for La Toilette
will be large, this writer would not
be surprised If the Wisconsin Senator
carried only Wisconsin and North
Dakota and these States by a close
squeeze.
So the situation would appear to
be 17S votes for Davis plus about 80
for La Toilette, making 2OS nom
Coolidge votes reasonably certain
This leaves 323 possible votes for
President Coolidge.
Now, the President can lose 56
votes and still win. Will he? The
answer is not to be found in the