The circle banner. [volume] (Circle, Mont.) 1914-1939, 1924-02-22
is the HORSE Coming Back?
By L. A. CAMPBELL, County Agent, RavalH County

rs THE HORSE business ever go
ing to "come back? A great
- many people have been asking
themselves this question during the
past year and some have come to the
conclusion that trucks, automobiles
and tractors have just about put the
horse out of business. There has
been rather prevalent opinion that
the present low price of horses is due
to the development of power ma
chinery to do the work of the horse,
and the impression that this develop
ment will continue has brought about
decided scarcity of good horses of
the draft type and of good breeding
stock. Nowhere is this scarcity more
noticeable than at county and state
| fairs. Exhibits where a few years
! ago the horse was one of the main
attractions, now have their stalls con-
verified into hog pens or filled with
chicken coops-the horse is not
| there
The answer to the possibility of
the comeback of the horse business
is too often influenced by the wishes
or the desires of the one giving the
answer. The machine man will
answer readily that there is no pos
sible chance, and the horse enthus-
last will answer just as readily that
unquestionably the horse will come
back into his own. Dean E. j. Idd-
ings of the University of Idaho, who
cannot be placed in either of the two
above mentioned groups, was en-
phatic in a talk during Farmers
Week at Montana State college that
the horse market is coming back and
made strong plea for greater in
terest in the raising of good horses.
A very marked characteristic of
all farm prices is the fact that they
run in cycles varying from one to l.
years. A study of the horse price
situation shows the same tendency of
periodical fluctuation. Economists
explain these cycles by periods of
over and under-production. If the
production of horses is Improbable
the raising of colts is checked, but ,
it is usually a year or more before
the decrease is noticeable. 1t takes
four years before decrease in three
year-old colts is noticeable and dur
ing this period there may be an ap-
parent surplus of horses. The fact
That mare can do more work when
not raising a colt helps to exaggerate
the idea of surplus. BY the time
the supply of mature horses becomes
short, there is a shortage in several
crops of colts. If colt raising is then
started the shortage becomes all the
more conspicuous because a large
number of mares are withdrawn
from work for breeding purposes and
this has tendency to still further
increase the number of mares bred.
Going back to 1878, the price of
horses began to rise and continued
for ten years. At the end of that
time a reversal took place and a ten
year period of decline set in. The
next IA years saw gradual upward
price trend and this was followed by
nine years of decrease. During the
past three years there has been a
gradual, even though slight, increase
In the value of good, big, draft type
of horses. The decline in horse
values prior to 1920 would have
taken place anyway, according to the
records of the past, but power ma
cnlnery helped to increase the de-
cline and in January, 1920, the pur-
chasing power of the horse dollar