The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-09-19


 [8G.FORBESJ prices for futures"
 was what I recommended. That has turned out to be wise counsel.
 On what reasoning was 1t basedf
 Here are two simple little, truths to
 keep always in mind when trying to gauge what the future may bring busi- I nesswise:
 First, the abnormal is not normal and rarely lasts long.
 Second, this old world has learned to
 adapt itself to changed conditions.
 Nature has laws and ways of her own. lWhen things are thrown far out of gear ! Economically. the very stars in their Eourses conspire to restore them to nor mal. Reflect for yourself, watch for yourself, and you will become convinced < lof this. E,
 It will prove helpful to you in an- \ falyying the future and making forward s scommitments.
 I Whenever any necessary commodity SFoars to extreme prices, the world promptly starts readjusting it's ways so , as to get along with much less of that < particular commodity. Every living kereature, from the lowest forms of life 3hp to man, has been able to survive *bimply because of ability to adapt itself ! to its environment. How many millions of species of living things have become
 extinct because of inability to adapt Themselves to changing conditions, no . mortal can tell. You sometimes hear 5 Ia person remark: Isn't it wonderful \ how birds take on colors calculated to harmonize with their surroundings and thus make them more difficult to seer" I But if birds and animals had failed so l to conform with conditions as to enable them to escape destruction, why they would not be here.
 l It is always safe to buy good stocks land bonds outright during a panic.
 And 1t is always safe to sell out when quotations are booming wildly. The abnormal, you see, does not last. If the abnormal lasted permanently, it would not be the abnormal, but would
 be the normal. Business panics and Ibooms are abnormal. rcTherefore, it is
 safe to. act on the assumption they will
 mot last.
 When the war sent prices of linen ilskyrocketing because of the scarcity of flax, this country and other countries began to use cottons instead of linens. When coal rose to unprecedented prices many large consumers turned to fuel 1Ioil. When builders found that lath, 5Ibecause of high cost of labor and weed, could not be purchased at reasonable I prices they turned to metal lath. When lolive oil went beyond the reach of the masses of consumer, substitutes were re- ported to. The ordinary housewife won't Iuse fruits which have become eXces- |lsively dear; she selects other fruits sell Hing within reach of her purse. SIX shirts were bought at abnormal prices Ionly as long as abnormal wages were He -Nn.A-- 1-~a normal wear for the majority Of the people their vogue did not last. | Again 1t is not economically sound, Eltherefore, it is not normal, that there should be in this country such a large humber of automobile manufacturers. Sound economy calls for the elimination of the weaker concerns. The weeding out process is bound to come; indeed, it Is now under way, as several recent |receiverships reveal.
 Several of our important industries are today In abnormal condition, ab- normal in that they are not enjoying normal measure of prosperity
 But 1t is just as certain as the ris- H ing of the sun that they will bye and bye recover from their extreme depres- sion and enjoy at least normal pros perity. The textile industry Is in this position. So is the rubber industry. The sugar industry mas been similarly CIT cumstanced. Ditto, shipping. On the other hand, building and the building trades have been abnormally prosper
 ous. They, too, will bye and bye fall
 back to normal and probably the pep-
 duIum will swing quite a distance in the other extreme.
 = When I finally and reluctantly told my Texas friend what I would do were cotton grower, I simply based my conclusion on the broad reasoning here outlined. recall printing, when every body was excited over the fancy prices for cotton and the -abnormally low prices for grain, paragraph to the effect that 1t would be well to look for movement toward the normal in both of these commodities. And that, of course. is what did set in. Perhaps this further thought should be added: Things rarely remain un- changed for any length of time. That truth also must be kept in mind always. N That is why the business game can be found fascinating by those who ap- ply themselves diligently to playing 1t inteillgently.
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