Evening star., 1924-12-31

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against anything {f12
drastic in the way STUART P. WEST,
of legislation re-
lating to trade.
This thought was back of the really
extraol binary upward movement in
stocks which started after election day,
something which has not been equaled
except in such historic boom years
as 1909, 1906 and 1901 The Wall
Street advance was soldly based
first upon the exceptional ease of
credit conditions, and second, upon
the fact that there had been no ele
ments of imitation in business lines.
On the contrary, business men,
mindful of experiences of l920-1921,
had long been buying for immediate
needs only. There had been no ac-
cumulation of high priced raw ma
terials and unfinished products the
way there was five years ago. There
had been no hasty and frightened
way there had been in the Spring
of 1923.
Business Position Sound.
Nobody as the year ends ought
seriously to doubt the soundness of
the general business position as
compared with periods in the past.
the line of whether or not the stock
market, with its modern-day tend
ency to go to extremes both ways,
has not overdone things.
The investment section of the mar
ket developed its main force in the
Summer and midway through the
Autumn. Liberty bonds and the
United States Treasury Az per cent
loan of 1852 reached their top prices
n r
ber. Then a change came about.
The speculative element assumed the
place of prominence, the investment
element grew increasingly less con-
spicuous. This was due to two
causes, the first being the uncer-
tainty over the future course of
money rates, the second being the
heavy outpour of new security issues.
This latter suggests formidable
obstacle confronting the situation in
the new year. The statement has not
yet been made that the market for
these new capital issues has reached
the saturation point. It is not claimed
that we are in a condition of "un-
digested securities" like that of 1903
or 1922.
Still it seems to, be true that the
new offerings have not actually gone
with the success advertised to the
public. They have been oversubscrib-
ed, but how large percentage has
found it's way into the hands Of the
ultimate investor is very question
able. The shelves of dealers are
probably stocked more heavily than
at any time in the last three years.
Variations Not So Extreme.
The past year has not witnessed
such extreme variations and changes
of mood among business men as did
1923. Still the buying movement in
March, 1924, was overdone in certain
lines, the same as 1t was in the corre-
spending month of the year before,
and the subsequent reaction was
almost as severe. Steel operations,
for instance, went down from 90 per
cent in March to not far from 40 per
cent in August, and this slump in
production was attended by a fall in
steel prices which brought them to a
comparatively Improbable level.
The situation continued consistently
good throughout in the merchandising
and general distributive trade. Com
panies doing business in these lines
nearly all of them made a lot of
money. But the textile trades were
a bad sore spot. Cotton manufactur-
ers had been paying very high prices
for their raw material for three years
and had not been able to get their
finished products up In any way COM
mensurate. Hence there were shut
downs and part-time arrangements
instituted which lasted through the
Summer and good part of the
Autumn. The wooden manufacturers
were not as poorly off; still their gen
eral circumstances were much the
same, and the principal unit in the
New England field was finally COM
PEELED to pass the dividend on its
common stock.
Industry Very Much Mixed.
Numerous other instances could be
cited to show that industry during a
good part of the year was very much
mixed. In certain lines there was
real prosperity; in others the state
of things was decidedly the reverse.
One of the principal troubles was the
old problem of high labor costs.
Prices would come down, but wages
would stay up, and even under the
altered circumstances toward the
close of the year this problem has by
no means disappeared.
With the exception of a moderate
cut at the New England textile cen
ters wage scales have remained very
high, and it is still a question as the
new year begins how this big labor
cost is going to be divided eQuitably
that the former will derive an ade-
Uuate profit.
Farm Prices Recover.
The great change in the industrial
situation came with the recovery in
farm prices which started early in
the Summer and which reached quite
extraordinary lengths in the Autumn.
This was not due, as has often hap
pened in recent years, to a serious
shortage in home production. The
corn Yield to be sure, was off con-
siderably, some 100000 bushels from
the recent average. But the wheat
harvest was far above the ordinary,
and other grains were well up to
normal. The advance of 90 cents q
busheI in wheat from the low of the
Spring to the high of the Autumn
was the resxit partly of the heavy
falling off in the Canadian crop, part
1y to the prospective reduction in the
yields of other wheat producing
countries and partly to the improved
buying power of Europe.
This event had a truly revolution
izing effect. II is conceded to have
been a prime factor In shaping polit-
ical sentiment during the presiden-
tial campaign. 1t did away with much
of the discomfort in the farming
States of the West. Along with the
rise In corn and live stock prices, it
led to a revival of general buying
in those sections which in the latter
months of the year showed in a rec
ord-breaking volume of railway traf-
no and in an unparalleled total Of