San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1924-03-30
STOCK MARKET
IS IRREGULAR
THROUGH WEEK
Business Situation Uncer-
tain With Lower Values
Ruling.
STEEL TRADE POOR
Decline in Agricultural
Prices Most Unfavor-
able Incident.
STEEL TRADE POOR
By STUART P. WEST.

n By STUART p. WEST.
Copyright. 1894. by Consol. Press Assn.
New York, March 29.-The Wall
street fluctuations Of the last week are
to be analysed in much the same way
as they were a week ago. Prices
have not gone down because of any.
thing that has happened at Washing
ton. although these happenings have
been commonly played up as the al
legged reason. The decline may be
partly ascribed to an altered view of
trade conditions and partly to a shift
Ing OF large speculative interests from
one side to the other
For the last two years 1t has been
the practice for a stock exchange
movement to pass from advance to
decline and vice versa without any in
tervening period of indecisive fluctua-
tons. The market of November, 1922,
went down quite violently in face of
the plainest indication that trade was
on the mend. The market Of Feb
ruary and March, 1923, went to the
other extreme and pictured an area of
initiation which there was no warrant
to expect.
Spectators Inclined to Excess.
The point is that modern speculative
campaigns on which ever side they
occur, are inclined to excess. In their
later stages they become artificial and
misrepresentation of the situation on
the outside. Apprehension was ex-
pressed in this column two months ago
and repeated frequently that Wall
street in January had taken altogether
too rosy a view of things.
The decline in the market, pretty
continuous since early February, has
fitted in with this attitude. The ques-
ton is, however, whether the same
speculative forces which ever-did
things in the early weeks Of the year
on the side Of rising prices, will not
70 too far now in the other direction.
Nobody seriously believes, that the
scandals and hints of scandals un-
earthed at Washington have under
mined confidence in the business
world. The best judgment is still that
political developments have been OF
comparatively slight consequence and
that the market would have gone down
anyway.
Agricultural Prices Off.
The most unfavorable incident OF
the last month or so has been the
decline in agricultural prices. Cotton
Is off II cents a pound from its high.
The cotton goods trade is unquestion-
ably the darkest spot in the business
situation at the present time and it
can be cured in only one of two ways,
either through a further ctrtailment
In the output OF cotton goods. or
through such an increase in the 1924
crop as will force raw cotton prices
down to more attractive levels.
The prospect confronting the wheat
farm Is a good deal worse than this.
Last year was as Improbable as any
that the wheat trade has experienced.
Yet cash wheat Is now selling some q
cents q bushel under what 1t was a
year ago at this time and the July
and September options, representing
the new crops, are down 10 to II
cents.
Poor Outlook For Steel Trade.
Next in Importance to the dubious
AGRICULTURAL outlook is the. increasing
competition and the implication of
lower prices in the steel trade. Here,
too. there is a decided chan-e as COM
pared with two months ago. Prices of
basic commodities like iron and coal
are off. The silk trade is much de-
pressed and in the opinion of many a
state OF overproduction il threatened
in the motors.
On the other hand It Is well 10
note the points in the situation which
appear in the same bright colors as
they did at the beginning of the year.
First. there is the extraordinary ease
In money, which, other things being
equal. assures continued support for
investment securities and the ready
absorption Of new corporate offerings.
Second, the oil trade is in strong
position with production of crude oil
below consumption and with every
thing pointing toward higher prices as
soon as the Senate investigation is
over. Third. the prospect is undimin-
ished of sugar producers having an
other profitable year. Fourth, the
distributive trade. as represented by
chain store, department store and
other similar organizations. is run
ming ahead of the remarkable totals
of a year ago. Fifth. copper produc-
ton is In process of readjustment so
that this industry, so long in its UNI
satisfactory shape, can fairly look
ahead 10 a season of grea.-r profit.
Sixth. there are the record-breaking
figures on railway tonnage and the
very flattering results of railway
ont rations in February. which seem
likely to be repeated in the current
month.
Business Situation Irregular.
1t will thus be seen that the bust
ness situation is extremely irregular
and can neither be adjudgt.. nor de-
scrlbed as whole. The same may be
said for the stock market with the
oualificat ton. however. that even in
arorins representing industries in an
improbable condition the decline of
the last six weeks must have discount
ed a great deal.