Evening star., 1924-12-21

gave Europe bad turn and post
| poned world recovery for full year.
But the end of that episode was the
| general acceptance Of the Dawes plan
| and the elimination Of any conception
! IN or out of France OF any occupa-
| ton Of the Ruhr or the Rhineland
permanently. There are many rea-
| sons for believing that the upshot of
Nationalist ministry IN Germany
| might be equally advantageous.
The growth of the desire for peace
and order all over Europe in the past
year is both unmistakable and diff
cult to exaggerate. There Is devel-
oping a general European solidarity,
which the last Geneva conference
witnessed. For Germany to disturb
this peace now would be to invite
the hostility of the whole continent,
Russia alone excepted, and any real
resort to war would bring swift de-
than those through which Germany
has lived IN the recent past.
And long before any Nationalist
ministry could embroil Germany in a
new war 1t is fairly certain that the
slender majority on which at best 1t
must be built would collapse. There
fore I am bound to conclude that the
coming of Nationalist cabinet would
be without great danger TO the peace
evitable antecedent condition to the
final adjustment in Germany. It
would be foolish to assume that the
German republic Is to be permanent;
that question has yet to be decided,
and the German people have mani
testify not yet made up their minds,
but the decision is likely to remain
in allegiance, even IL there be new
cabinet representing monarchial SYM
pathies.
AS close this article the Berlin
dispatches, which for a week have
been steadily asserting q Nationalist
| cabinet inevitable, have taken the op-
posite tack, basing their new opinion
on the public declaration Of Chan
cellor Marx, leader of the Clerical
Centrists, that his party would not
| join the Nationalists, and making this
statement a party commitment. II
/ this be the final decision Of the Cen
| ter, then there can be no Nationalist
| cabinet. for without the Clericals
such cabinet could not get adequate
| backing.
| The whole situation continues to
! turn upon the two constant factors,
the $50 Social Democrats on one side
and the 116 Nationalists and Voel-
kische partisans on the other. A Ma
| tionalist cabinet could only come If
!
| Clericals, Democrats and Peoples
party, decided to combine with the
| Nationalists. AS the Democrats are
| likely to take the same line as the
| Clericals, the Nationalist combination
without Clerical backing would be
| out Of the question, and it would re-
main to be decided whether the So
cialists, Clericals and Democrats
| could persuade the Social Democrats
n q on
| the Social Democrats would agree, as
before the election, to support cabi-
net made up of the Clerica1s, Peoples
party and Democrats while not par
| ticipating.
Perhaps before this article is print
ed cabinet will be formed either
by a Right or Left coalition, that Is,
having either a Nationalist or Re-
publican character, but this will not
change the actual situation nor
modify the existing confusion in the
German political world. If you think
Of a situation in which a fortnight
after election in this country 1t re-
mained in doubt whether we were to
have an administration resulting from
a coalition Of the Republicans and
Progressives or from a combination
of the Democrats and Progressives
with both possible. you will have
some faint suggestion OF the German
situation, although to complete the
picture it would be necessary to I'm
agine that many Republicans Nigh,
support the Democrat, many Demo.
Gratis the Republican, or, many Re
publicans and Democrats Join tn.
Progressives.
Underlying all else in the German
situation. of course, is the fact that
perhaps the decisive fraction OF the
German people has not yet made uI
its mind as between republic and
monarchy. Therefore there Is no way
OF drawing a clear line Of demarca.
ton between parties. We know where
the Nationalists, Social Democrats anl
Communists stand, but we shall no
know where Germany stands until tn,
great question is finally resolved Ii
the minds Of the electorate, and mean.
time we may have either Repub
lican or a Nationalist ministry and al
sorts Of confusing compromises re
sulting from the inability OF th'
LEADERS OF the smaller parties ta max