Evening star., 1924-07-28
FARMERS PROFIT
STILL ON PAPER
BIIli0n-DoIIar Advance in
Grain Values Not Yet Turn
ed Into Actual Cash.
BY j. e. ROLYE,

Special Dispatch TO The Star
NEW YORK, July 2S.-The farmer
Is not yet out of the woods. in spite
of the widespread assertions that the
agriculturiSts of America would have
d billion dollars more to spend than
they had last year Like many a
Prospective Wall street millionaire,
his profits still are on paper. He has
Yet to close his trades and completely
market his products before he Will
have the extra dollars to jingle in
his jeans.
Many surely will accomplish this
successfully and protitaby. but others
are counting their chickens before
the eggs even are in the incubator.
In other words. they are counting
their crops already sold at present
high prices. although there is no GER
tain assurance that they Will dispose
of them at such figures.
Caution still Necessary.
Undoubte dly if they could sell the
fruits Of their fields at prices prevail
ing today they would have most
successful year. and the bankers.
business men and manufacturers of
the country would rejoice with them.
since it would tend TO benef fit all busi-
ness. But there are contingencies
which cannot be overlooked in eSti-
mating the increased purchasing
power of the farmer this year.
Level headed business men. traders
and financiers who express the senti-
mentS indicated above, make it plain
that they do not belittle the effects
of the recent sensational rises in
prices of farm products or minimize
the profits which they hope will ac-
crue to the growers. They state they
desire merely to avoid the danger to
business in general Of overestimating
the purchasing power of rural COM
munities until crop returns are in the
form OF cash.
Must Get High Prices.
The Department of Agriculture.
they point out, estimates the wheat
PRO production due of the country at 7+o;-
100000 bushels. compared with
.S6,0O0,00D bushels harvested last
year. Thus the wheat growers must
sell their grain this year at a higher
price than in 1928 in order to realize
an equal amount. Some experts place
n bushel or more. July wheat today
Is well above $3.50 a bushei, as com
pared with an average of SO cents
IN July of last year
The corn crop is forecast by the
department at 2.5l5.3S5.o0o bushels,
AS compared with 3,046. 6.3S1 900 bush
els harvested last year The July
corn price today is lowering around
1.09 a buShel com pal red with the 1928
July average of S4.5S cents Not ONLY
must the smaller production be taken
INTO account in estimating the total
cash returns to the farmer. but corn
IS not direct market crop and the
proht to the grower depends to
large extent on the price of live
stock, since goodly part of the corn
crop is sold in the form of fattened
animals.
The oats crop is forecast at 1856
35s,eoO bushels, as against l,299,S23.-
600 bushels last year The present
price is around So cents. as against
the 1928 July average of 41.S7 cents.
Price Break Possible.
All the prices mentioned undoubt-
edly mean profits, but they are prices
on the Chicago Boar of Trade, not
farm prices, which usually are we'll
under the market center quotations.
The farmer, like the Wall street
Spectator. may overstay his market.
Also if enough farmers take it in
mind to sell at the same time the
weight of grain thrown on the mar
ketS may serve to break the price
The world crop situation is favorable
to America this year. but the world
financial situation still is decidedly
uncertain.
Russia is faced by a wheat famine
The Canadian crop. the chief rival
of the United States in world mar
ketS, undoubtedly is lighter than
last year. These facts are favorable.
since Canada in the last 70
months exported 349,oo0,ooo bushels
of wheat as compared with 6,00Q,-
coo shipped from this country.
Many Spending Paper Profits.
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri.
Colorado and Nebraska have harvest
cd this year 2bout 22,00u. 900 acres of
wheat, and prospects are favorable
in South Dakota, Montana and North
Dakota. The reapers are already
busy in the Far Northwest. From
some sections, such as Kansas, where
conditions were especially propitious,
come reports of poor farmers who
have suddenly become rich as re-
suit of the wheat crop.
So they have-on paper. But cou-
rled with these reports, come state
ments that many growers. anticipat-
ing still further advances, are held
ing-not selling-their grain. If
grain car go up it also can go down,
bankers point out; but, in the mean
time, some of the farmers are spend
ing their paper profits.
TrcYYrp.c nDYrr r1rnrv