The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1924-04-12

Illinois organization Democrats
think, or hope, that when every
thing is all over. it will seem that
George Brennan is just as big a
boss as Taggart Of Indiana or
Murphy Of New York, and perhaps
bigger.
Certainly it seems likely today
that at some time during the Demo
crat National Convention in New
York, the guess and the word OF
some boss" plus the guess and
the word Of McAdoo, will determine
the man to whom the Democratic
presidential nomination will go.
Candidate to Be Compromise.
The next Democratic presidential
nominee will be put forward by
McAdoo plus a boss" That basic
fact becomes apparent just as soon
as the detailed prospective figures
Of the different delegate strengthens
in the convention are considered.
The anti-McAdoo strength in the
convention, at the end Of the first
few jockeying ballots, will settle
down into being at least 448h
votes. The half vote is scheduled
to come from Arizona.
This strength is more than one
third of the convention and there
fore is legally sufficient under thA
two-thirds rule to prevent the
nomination Of McAdoo at that
moment.
More Than Enough.
It in fact is much more than
sufficient. One-third of the dele.
gates IN that convention Of 1898
members would be 366. The anti
McAdoo forces, having ASH dele
Tgates. will have 821a delegates
more than they need in order to
have one.third Of the convention
and they SO will have a quite con-
siderable margin of safety against
a McAdoo victory.
The critical question then arises:
What are the elements which to-
gether will constitute this anti
McAdoo strength?
This question brings forward the
fact that the situation will un'
doubtedly be one of McAdoo against
the field. The McAdoo strength
may conceivably rise to 649H votes.
This will be only eight-two and a
half votes short of the two.thirds
| AlGCSSSdFy lOI q IOILlIldbAOh'
+ = Four.fifths From West.
Four-fifths of this McAdoo strength
will come from west of the Missis-
sippi and south of the Potomac.
McAdoo will be obviously the West
ern and Southern candidate.
Against him then, the anti.Mc.
Adoo strength will be a Central
and Eastern strength, and it will
be a divided strength.
Information here available indi-
Gates that 1t will be divided as
follows:
J. The strongest anti-McAdoo candi-
date will be Smith OF New York.
He may have as many as 200 votes
picked up from Massachusetts.
Rhode Island, New York, New Jer-
sey, Pennsylvania and Delaware in
tie East and Louisiana in the
South and Wisconsin in the West.
Next will come Underwood Of
Alabama, with perhaps seventy and
one-half delegates from Pennsyl.
wanna in the East and from Ala
bama and Florida and Mississippi
In the South and from Arizona in
the West.
Then will come Cox of Ohio, with
thirty-six delegates from Ohio in
the Central region; and then will
come Ralston of Indiana, with
thirty delegates from Indiana, also
in the Central region, and then
will come Davis of West Virginia
with perhaps twenty delegates from
West Virginia, Maine and Vermont,
all North Of the Potomac: and then
will come Robinson. Arkansas. with
eighteen delegates from Arkansas
in the West; and then will come
possibly, Richie of Maryland, with
sixteen votes from Maryland, which
is called a Southern State bat
which is north of the Potomac.
Illinois "Uninstructed."
Clearly these anti-McAdoo dele
gates are overwhelmingly from
fnorth Of the Potomac and east of
the Mississippi.
Added to them finally there will
be the Brennan delegates from
Illinois who are absolutely "unin-
structed" and who can move across
the chess board in any direction
and in response to any arranged
combination at will.
These Brennan delegates will be
among the most foot-loose persons
in the convention. 1t is thought
here that they will accordingly
well merit watching.
Mr.. Brennan has not confided to
this writer his inward views and
intentions regarding the Presidency,
put from conversations with him,
this writer ventures to surmise and
believe as follows:
Brennan has no prejudices against
any known named Democratic
aspirant to the Presidential office.
brennan at the same time would
like to do all that he can for
William e. Dever, of this State.
Murphy, of New York, has a
candidate--Al Smith. Taggart, of
Indiana, has a candidate-Samuel
Halston. Brennan has a candidate
bill Dever. mayor of Chicago.
Inc true ultimate question is:
The Ultimate Question.
IL McAdoo be nominated, which
anti-McAdoo candidate will be most
congenial and agreeable and ac-
ceptable to McAdoo?
In such a contest it is clear that
smith, Of New York, and Under
WOOD, or Alabama, and Davis, oi
West Virginia, and Richie, Of
Maryland, and Cox, of Ohio, would
presumably be unacceptable t.
McAdoo because of their being
either too wet or too conservative
1t Is also fairly clear that Robin.
son, OF Arkansas, would be re-
garded as personally a strong man
but as politically only, and weakly
a mere favorite son.
The contest would come down to
1 RQlGfnn nj Indiana opd TAn,,A. -