The Washington times., 1924-06-16
HOLD
STRENGTH
70 WIN
Early BalIoting Apt to Be In
decisive 500 Delegates
Uninstructed
BY GEORGE n. HOLMES.

(
NEW YORK, June 16.-Wil-
Ham G. McAdoo will have IN
excess of 400 votes ON the first
ballot in the Democratic national
convention here next week, Gov
ernor AL Smith will have nearly
800, and the balance will be
scattered among q dozen men,
3avorite sons and dark horses.
Reconciliation Of Claims.
This represents today q recon.
citation Of all claims, some Of them
conflicting, made by the McAdoo
and Smith leaders, together with
the known statistics on instructions
which. some delegates have received
from their Stats conventions or in
their State primaries.
Some Of the McAdoo leaders
claim that his initial strength will
be. considerably in excess Of 400.
. Some Of the more enthusiastic claim
sven that he viii poll q majority
Of the convention--650--on the first
ballot, but these claims do not
stand up in comparison with the
strength Of McAdoo's numerous
rivals. \
Must Hold Strength.
The whole story of the conven.
eion. In the opinion Of most un.
prejudiced observers, lies in the
ability Of McAdoo to hold his
strength and increase IL after fhe
early balloting. The managers of
the McAdoo campaign, who have
1een working industriously in every
state In the Union for more than
= year now, are supremacy conf.
oent that the initial strength can
DC held and increased.
ana here 10 where the McAdoo
managers and the managers Of
other candidates part company,
The anti-McAdoo forces concede
withoCt argument that he viii
lead the. early balloting, and MANY
or them concede that he NAV at
one time or another poll a majority
OF the 1,OS6 delegates. But they
give him no more. The strength Of
the forces opposed to McAdoo, thew
claim, can never be drawn to the
McAdoo banner, and these forces
constitute more than one-third Of
the. convention. They have counted
noses and are supremacy confident.
Where then, they ask, is McAdoo
going to get the votes unless the
two-third rule IL abrogated?
That the McAdoo leaders are cog.
infant Of this is seen from a revival
OF the talk here about abrogating
the time-honored two-thirds rule.
But 1t is regarded as exceedingly
doubtful that the rule will be
changed.
Opponents Claims.
The anti.McAdoo forces are not
merely content with predicting that
McAdoo will not be nominated.
They go further, and contend that
the strength which the ex-Treasury
head will poll in the first five bal.
lots win be his greatest strength.
In substantiation Of this, they point
out that these same instructions do
not carry beyond this point. They
see some McAdoo strength slipping
away to other candidates. after the
delegates have fulfilled their in.
Structions.
The McAdoo managers reply 10
this argument that the delegates
% lost will be more than compen.
eated for by the accessions to the
McAdoo strength from still other
delegations who are pledged to a
favorite son the first ballot. They
cite Wyoming as a typical case in
this connection. The delegates from
that State were instructed by their
State convention to vote on the
first ballot for Senator John B.
Kendrick. After the complimentary
vote for Kendrick the McAdoo man.
ayers claim the delegation. There
are other states where similar con.
.ditions prevail, they say.
Many Not Instructed.
On the other hand, McAdoo man.
ayers claim the rs delegates from
Iowa. They were not instructed by
the State convention, although Nc.
Adoo men dominated that conven.
ton. Iowans who are opposed to
McAdoo declare the delegation prob.
ably will vote for McAdoo on the
first ballot and thereafter pursue
their individual ways. And this
condition, they contend, prevails In
other States which the McAdoo man,
ayers are claiming as rock-ribbed
McAdoo strongholds.
There will be nearly 500 delegates
In the convention, representing 81
states and Territories, who will be
unhampered by instructions or
pledges. so far as the delegations
as a whole are concerned.
These, 1t appears, hold the bal.
ance OF power, and in the long run
will determine the issue.