Evening star., 1924-08-17

There is no reason why q Pres
tdential year should be a bad year
FOR business, and the hoary tradition
that financial and industrial depres
sion always accompanies a national
election has not a shred Of evidence
in our history to support it"
This statement was made to me
by Robert B. Gluck, wellknown econ
tive study Of business cycles and
their causes. I asked the question
because numerous statements have
appeared in the newspapers attribut-
ed to business men that the lethargy
in business Of the past few months
was due to the approach of our
quadrennial national campaign.
II know that business men believe
this" said Mr.. Gluck. ut is an old
notion which has survived since the
great free silver campaign of 1896.
At that time business was in very
bad shape. And while it had been
declining for a long time. the issues
of the battle between the two lead
ing parties was such that it affected
very deeply our whole financial
structure. There is no doubt that
there was a general suspension OF
activity awaiting the result of that
election. Let d thing happen once
in public affairs, and thereafter peo-
pie will look for it to happen again.
Slump Not Due to Elections.
'In 1900 and in 1904 business was
not quite so cheerful. But in both
of these years the decline had begun
the preceding years. The depres-
sions OF 1900 and 1904 were merely
the continuation of movements which
had set in many months before and
were in no wise related to the cleo
tionS.
"If there is any doubt on this score,
we have but to look at conditions in
the rest Of the world. No one be-
lieves that our elections depressed
business in England. France, Ger
many and other European countries
Yet everywhere conditions were bad,
worse even than with us. We were
merely getting our share of the gen.
eral weakness in trade.
Perhaps I should have gone back
a little further. The records we have
of 1892 arc not so complete as those
Of today. Yet it is quite certain that
that year was a. prosperous one,
much more SO, in fact, than they be-
lieved it to be at the time.
Now let us take the campaign be-
tween President Taft and Mr.. Bryan
in 1908. Many business men will re-
member the unsettled state of affairs
in the last half of 1907. There was
something resembling a panic. 1t
continued on into 1908. Indeed il vas
so marked that the record of the
year 1908, taken as a whole, was by
no means good. But beginning about
June things began to improve. 1t is
remarkable that they actually be-
gan to move upward just about the
time the conventions met and con-
tinued to get better with amazing
| rapidity all through the canvass until
by the end OF the year business be-
gan to enjoy something like good
times again.
Quick Recovery In e. s.
The depression had been due to
worldwide conditions. Everywhere
industry was curtailed. But strange
ly enough we recovered faster than
any other country and that in the
midst of our so-called blighting na-
tional campaign"
Do you think the certainty of Mr.
Taft's election contributed to this?
asked.
Not at all. The trouble was due
to underlying economic causes. The
recovery was due to the natural cor
TeCClOn Oh tNeSe causes.
|. Mr.. Gluck then showed me some
figures about the year 1912 when
President Wilson was elected and
when the Republican Party was split
by the feud between Roosevelt and
Taft
There was a chart showing bank
clearances, failures, deposits, volume
Of production in numerous industries.
sales, foreign trade, etc. While the
curves did not rise so high as in
many years of very great prosper
ity, they were well above those of
the preceding year.
Business in 1912 began a substan-
tial recovery. 1t was consistently
better every month that year as com
pared with the preceding year. 1t
may not have been a period of ex-
traordinary activity but il was bet
ter than most years. Besides the ten
dency was up. In almost all lines
Improvement was steady. This was
not interrupted in the least by the
campaign. These slight drops in the
lines on the chart represent the usual
seasonal fluctuations. You will see