Evening star., 1924-11-03
The Day of Claims.

This is claims day, claims by the
candidates and by their managers.
According to tradition all are claim
ing victory at the ballot box tomor-
row, some with figures and some with
out. Those VINO believe Mr.. Coolidge
will be. elected are offering tables of
States, with alternatives Of certain
Ties, probabilities and possibilities, the
least reckoning showing an electoral
majority. Those who are predicting
the election of Mr.. Davis are tender
ing no specifications, but declaring
that the trend of public sentiment is
strongly in his favor and will so
register tomorrow. Those who be-
iieve. or profess to believe, that the
La Toilette cause will triumph, assert
that their candidate will win if all the
votes that are cast for him are
counted.
All the weight of statistical verify
is on the side of the Republicans.
They are making their claims and
predictions in terms of specific States
and electoral votes. Their estimates
are supported in the main by the fore
casts Of the supposedly and probably
actually non-partisan news writer's
who have been following the cam
paign closely and are in a position to
judge the situation. 1t is a significant
fact that these surveys of the situa-
lion all trend in the, same direction,
which is the election Of Mr.. Coolidge.
Save in 1912 this phenomenon has not
been presented in recent years. Not
even in 1920, On the eve of the great
landslide which elected Harding, was
there such unanimity of judgment.
Just why this feeling of confidence
prevails is a matter of interesting
speculation. Certainly there was no
ground at convention time for Re
publican confidence to this de-
gree. The hird-party movement
appeared to threaten the integrity
of the, Republican party. 1t was
promoted by Republicans and
was centered in normally :tepub-
lican area, the States of the North
west. 1t was expected to draw mainly
IL Jill IliC 1ASpuUi1Cdl Sti Sh6I IsCI
granting Mr.. Coolidge the sol.< Ncrth-
east, comprising all States above the
Mason and Dixon line and as far
West as the Mississippi River, save
Wisconsin, he could be beaten by the
detection of those States in such num-
Der as to prevent an electoral ma
jority. That possibility became a fac
tor of prime importance at once upon
its disclosure. The Republican cam
paign was Immediately shaped accord
ingly to appeal to the people to make
their own decision and not leave the
choice of the Executive to the expir-
ing Congress, with the House dead
locked. Meanwhile prosperity became
the portion of the farmers Of the
West. High prices for their crops pre-
vailed. They no longer felt poor and
downtrodden. Their discomfort evap-
GRATED. They became less "progres-
sive" and reverted to their old-time
Republicanism. Another factor ap-
Deared in the challenge by the Repub-
iican management and speakers of
the anti-constitutional proposals of
the La Toilette party. proposals
which furnished definite issue plac-
ing the Progressives upon the defen-
sive and finally forcing explanations
and evasions that greatly weakened
their position.
SO these three factors operated to-
gether, constitutionalism, good times
and the capacity of the people to
choose for themselves. This combina.
tion appears to have won the West
away from La Toilette, who had un-
doubtedly expected to carry 10 or Is
uansmississippi States, and to whom
now are conceded only two or three.
Meanwhile in the East the cam
paign was shaping to the point of
drawing to the Republican ticket the
support of the conservative voters
who otherwise might have aligned
themselves with a more even division
between the Republican and Demo
cratic parties. The radical menace
compelled them to choose, and all the
computations indicate that they have
chosen Coolidge as more likely Of elec-
tion than Davis. They, too, have been
influenced, it would seem, by the pos
sibility of an electoral failure and the
resultant uncertainty Of choice by
Congress.
Thus the very factor that five
anonths ago made for Republican de-
feat has worked to the Republican
victory which is SO plainly fore
shadowed on the eve of election, ac.
cording to the judgment Of the most
competent observers and forecasters
OF political events.
NJ capnnaion orator ever advoca tes