Evening star., 1924-08-17
CONTINUED from First Page.D

default were declared. The princi-
pie of arbitration is thus applied to
the main issue. that of default. the
question of taking action after de-
fault is left for agreement among the
allies, and the British are free to
march with their allies or to refuse
as in 1928, when the Ruhr occupation
took place.
Now aside from this major circum-
stance the details of the London
agreement are too intricate to dis
cuss. the same principle of arbitra-
ton is to be applied in case Germany
manipulates the money markets of
the world to prevent transfer of
cash or commodities under the Dawes
plan. a protection to the French and
Belgians. who in fact will be the ma
jor benefciaries along with Italy un-
der the reparations distributions.
But 1t would be a mistake to see in
the Dawes agreement, important as
1t is. general settlement of the Eu-
ropean problems. even assuming that
Germany accepts the plan at the Lon
don conference. On the contrary, there
remain the great questions of inter-
allied debts and disarmament, which
are pressing and must be the sub
ject of new conferences and new bar
gains. And 1t is very difficult to see
how they can be separated. although
it is clear that the United States,
while ready to discuss the matter of
disarmament. will not sit into any
conference dealing with debts. since
in such a conference the matter of
cancellation must come UP.
Security for Disarmament.
Disarmament will turn upon secur-
ity and in fact upon the form of
guarantees which France and Bel
gium can obtain against any new
German attack. There will be no re-
duction of the present French army
or of the armies of the little entente
and Poland. save as the nations af-
fected are in some fashion guaran-
teed against attacks both from Ger
many and from Russia.
In practice the British will only be
able to bring about a reduction OF
the French army, which is their OBJ
ject-and Of the French air force,
which particularly disturbs them-as
they are able to offer the French
some form of assurance that in case
the French defense forces are re-
duced and Germany does again attack,
France will not be Handicapped by
the reduction of her armies Ramsay
Macdonald hopes to achieve this re-
pledging British military aid to any
country attacked wantonly. that is
to restrain Germany from attacking
France and France from attacking g
Germany by the threat of British in
tervention, but it may be questioned
how far such a promise will appeal
either to the French or the Belgians.
or for that matter. to the Germans
themselves.
difficult. The British have long
known that they would have to cam
eel most if not all that is owed them
by their continental allies of the war.
they have indeed made various offers,
the most notable OF which was made
in Paris in January. 1928. but they
have always had the double concep-
ton of realizing enough from these
debts and from their share Of Ger
man reparations to meet their an
nual payments to the United States
and of using cancellation itself as a
political bargaining point, particu-
larly to bring about European dis
armament.
Debt Conference Probable.
The probability now seems to be
that Ramsey Macdonald has given
both the French and British repre-
of willingness to reopen the debt
discussion in a generous spirit and
that conference on this subject will
be called following the present Lon
don meeting. Under the Dawes plan
Germany will be required to pay
around $600,000.000 annually and the
British share would be $132O0o,OOO as
against payment of around $17O,-
100000 to America each year After
all, then. British sacrifice of $4,000,
900 annually would not be a large
price to pay for a general settle
ment, and that $40.oO0,000 was all
Bonar Law asked for in the Paris
meeting before the Ruhr.
The French share of reparations,
however, which would be S312,OoO,000
annually, would hardly be more than
twice the amount France would have
to pay the United States to discharge
her debt to US, while the Italian and
Belgian reparations shares would not
be adequate to meet their annual OBJ
legation to us. Therefore, it is plain
that some time in the future there
will have to be an American discus
sion OF debts. just as it is certain
that these debts will never be paid
at their present figure by any Of the
continental nations.
/ shall reserve until next week a
discussion of the allied-German phase
of the London conference, only
recalling the fact that the Dawes re.
port did not deal with the sum OF
German payments, it only estimated
nually without saying how long the
payments should continue, and die