San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1924-03-09
Oil Scandal Does Not
Weaken Confidence
in Market.
NO DEFINITE TREND
Series Of Special Move
ments, But No General
/ Swing Either Way.
By STUART p. WEST.


New York, March S.-Nothing that
has happened during the past week in
the financial world approaches in in
terest the collapse in the French
franc. Much has been written on the
mbiect and much more will be writ
ten. But out of the mass OF these
writings. the dominating fact is the
refusal until lately to face the facts.
The official French attitude all along
has been that it was speculation that
was depressing the franc. German
naturalization was charged, English
manipulation was charged. French
financial writers took this position IN
one degree or another; so DID Paris
correspondents for the American
press: SO did many over here who let
Sentiment for France get the peter
of solid judgment. A. p.h
For twelve months after the rum
occupation the French government
maintained an extraordinary. budgeI
which was some day TO be paiahceu
by German reparations. linen IL came
into the open and admitted that repa-
rations payments were something lnaI
no longer were to be depended upon
and that French credit before the
world could not be re-establshed un,
Til the extraordinary was included
with the ordinary budget and an equa-
ton struck between outlay ana IN
come. The next step was the new
fiscal program involving an lncre ease
on the credit side of l,oUO,UOU,VoU
francs annually. The bill was passed
by the Chamber of Deputies week
ago. ,.,..
The question is whether TINS VIII
be a sufficient measure OF reiiet ana
the answer lies largely in what tne
4 Dawes committee reports. regarding
THE amount of indemnity Germany Is
able to pay. By itself the ~ per
cent increase tax plus the retrenen,
ment of expenditures in the devastateu
regions will not be enough.
The forecasts of the reports OF ex-
merit investigators have agreed that
the proposal will be for the next three
Years to have Germany pay what she
can in goods instead of cash.
Will the Budget Balance?
There will be little left in the way
of a gold surplus to be turned over
IN ths allies. Between the German
nayments in commodities and the IN
creased French taxes, will there be
enough added to the credit side TO
make the budget balance? lnterna-
tional financial opinion i. plainly
skeptical on this point and this the
principsl reason for the dechne IN tne
franc. The second reason is the large
degree of initiation which has entered
into the French financial structure,
partly owing to the piling up OF in,
ternal loans and partly to the RAPID
expansion of the paper note issue
since the middle Of last December.
The demand for paper currency auto
matically increases. Each lncrease;
contributes toward diminution OF
value. Hence there 10 established a
vicious circle, which Il is hard to
break except by doing what Austria
did 4 year ago and Germany pro-
noses to do now, namely, mortgage
internal properties in exchange for an
outside loan.
Confidence fn Stocks Strong.
The principal interest in the stock
exchange movement Of the week lay
in the further disproof Of the idea
that the investigations at Washing
ton were weakening confidence. Al
no time was there any serious notion
that actual holders Of stocks would
be alarmed into selling because of tbs
oil scandal or any Of its ramifica
tons. In Wall streets view, Thu
whole business at Washington ma
drifted into a game Of politics. i
getting exceedingly tiresome, and i
not worthy of consideration as a mar
ket factor.
No Definite Trend to Market. =.
Events have borne out the analysis
of a price movement not inclined Z
20 far in either direction. the ris
from the last of October to the en'
of January was more than sufficien
to reflect the improvement in out
side business A reaction occurre'
which corrected the speculative excess
es. Then the market settled down il
waiting period. There was no res
SON for il to renew the main au
vance, and there was no reason 10
il to have a further slump. There
fore, the logical sequel was what ha
been seen during the past ten day
namely, no general swing either wal
but merely a series of special mov'
ments corresponding to the positio
in individual industries.
Content With Trade Conditions.
General trade conditions are worl
ing out along the lines expecte
There Is no shortage Of goods {
hand, hence there is no rush
buy at rising prices. On the 9th
hand, the volume Of consumption
unusually large. The fact that the
is SO little forward buying al
that the producers of the country a
continuing their policy of purchasil
for immediate requirements only
one of the strongest factors in {
situation. Next to this is the {
traordinary credit position, empt
sized by the fact that banks ha
fallen to the lowest Of the year.