Evening star., 1924-01-24
us. TRADE BALANCE
LIKELY TOSL0WU UP
Growth in Home Population
to Keep Goods Here, Ex.
perts on Trade Report.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

special DlSpatch 10 Ihe Star
NEW YORK. January 24.-An-
nouncement that the favorable trade
balance" OF the United States in the
calendar year 1928 was S376,0OO, 900, or
a little more than an average of q
million dollars day, and in the single
month Of December $4,000, 900, lends
interest to a statement Of the Trade
Record Of the National City Bank on
the trade balance habit" of the coun-
try during the 1874 years since the
adoption OF the present form of gov
ernment and the establishment of a
permanent annual record of imports
and exports.
When Balance Turned.
1t was only in the period follow
ing powers OF the great Mississippi
valley. through the transportation
facilities supplied by railways, says
the Trade Record. that the United
states began to develop a favorable
trade balance" as the excess of ex-
ports over imports is sometimes call
ed. Prior to 1876. in which year our
railways totaled 10000 miles against
5000 in 1850. imports usually exceed
ed exports. but following that year
tue ldNOTHDle DdldNCe began 10 De d
characteristic of our foreign trade.
In the eighty-six years from 1888
to the end of 1875 there were only
sixteen occasions in which exports
equaled or exceed imports. In the
forty-eight years since 1875 there
which exports failed to exceed i'm
ports. In 1876 the excess OF exports
was $S0.000.000 in 1880 $16S,000,0 900.
in 1914 s4I1 100000. jumping with the
big demands of the war to over bill
lion dollars in the fiscal year 1915.
two and a half billions in 1917 and a
little over four billions in the fiscal
year 1919.
War Changed Conditions.
With the fall off in world demand
which followed the close of the war
and the increase in home demand for
our natural products. our exports
dropped from the high record mark
of SS.000,000.000 in thte fiscal year
1920 to s3,S32,000,000 in the calendar
year 1922 but advanced to $4.165.000.-
00s in 1928. The total excess Of ex-
ports over imports in the 134 years
since 1888 is. in round terms. $780,
900, 100000, or an annual average Of
about s224.000.000, against 1875, ,0O0, 900
in the calendar year 1923. which,
however, showed a smaller favorable
balance than in any year since the
fiscal year 1910. when the excess of
largest favorable balance occurred
during the war period when Europe
bought from us enormous quantities
OF food and war materials and had
little surplus to send us in exchange
Balance For U. s. Sure to Drop.
This slowing down of our favor
able balance, the excess of exports
over imports, adds the Trade Record,
Is the natural result of the growth Of
our consuming population, which
stands today at 110,OO0.00O, or practi-
tally double that Of 1885, while no
additions have been made to the pro-
ductng area meantime. While, Of
course. the fence corners" are now
being more closely cultivated than in
1885, 1t cannot be expected that the
surplus Of natural products remain
ing after feeding 110.00O,O00 people
Will be as great as when our popula-
tion was but 100000.
The experience of all older nations
is that as their population increases
the excess of exports decreases and,
finally, is replaced by an excess of
imports. The imports Of all Euro
pean countries when combined total
for the latest available year about
81 ,000. 100000. while their total ex-
ports stand at but about $4,000. .0OO.-
900. And this Is true also OF the prin-
clpal countries of Asia The younger
and less densely populated countries
of North and South America, Africa
and Oceania show in most cases ex-
{ ssses Of exports.