Imperial Valley press., 1924-12-19

business is again at normal nc.
cording to Rogtr W. Babson. the
statistician, who today issnen n de
'aiied statement covering the bust
ness and financial situation.
Gen Fal activity as reflecl.cl by
the Babsonchart is shown at spar
for the first time in eight months, -
says the statistician. "The t.nal
November figures, just in, bring
the line up from a point per cent
how normal where business q God
at election time. The readings bv
months trace the path CT dc1line
| durIng the early part of 1894 and
picture learlv the advance that
has taken place since the cle .tion.
January saw business at per cent
above normal. The nom ~, um from
the last month OF 1923 wa3 still
keeping activity at n good volume.
February continued at the same
level. In March, in spite of the
usual SEASONAL spurt, we saw things
drop to / per cent above normal.
Further slowing up in April took
us back 20 ! per cent below nor
nal and from then on business fell
off rather badly. May showed acti,
witty at per cent below normal,
June registered at - per cent be-
/ low normal. and July at IL per cent
below normal August finally reach.
| ed the bottom, activity averaging
at abon. 13 per cent below iolmal.
September and October suffered
from the uncertainties Attending
thu election and were recorded as
10 per cent and per cent ,below
normal. Today ii has made m this
loss and things stand at IN even
balance.
" You may wonder just whrt is
meant by normal business and an
explanation is certainly due We
have heard of normalcy in business
and we have heard about pre-
war conditions. Other comparisons
have been made with the boom wear
OF 1919 and still others with the
depression year of 1921. SO many
different bases have been used and
the term normal has been applied
loosely to mean so many things that
our present use should be carefully
defined. In studying business con
ditions and the changes in the
business weather here at Babson
Park, we show the fluctuations on
q large chart which combines all
the twenty-six leading barometers
of business into one picture. SO
far as general activity is concerned
the path of business is defined by
two lines on this chart. The cen
tral one, or so-ca!led Ny line, fol-
lows the path of national growth
regardless of the immediate situ:,-
ton. 1t pictures total transactions
and reflects the real expansion of
business, commerce, and finance.
The second line which runs alter
natIy above and below it shows
the exact present condition of
trade. In their Interpretation these
two lines might be likened 10 a
tree. The tree grows q little each
ye&r rs is shown by the rings sou
see in the cross section of its
trunk. This growth is slow and
hardly spectacular enough to inter
est us much. At certain seasons of
the year, however, the tree does
show activity on the surface that
changes the appearance Of things
In the spring, when the leaves are
budding it seems to be growing
rapidly, but in the autumn. when
these same leaves shrivcl and fail,
the tree looks as though it were
dying. 1t is somewhat the same
with business and these two lines
that measure its two kinds of
progress. The KY line traces the
gradual growth regardless of sea-
son while the line of present activi-
ty reflects the surface development
of the Individual season.
"Our business and fiImcial
worlds are beset by seasons even
rs the tree is, except that the
changes from prosperity TO decline,
from decline to depression, from
depression to improvement and
from improvement. to prosperity do
not occur with any regularity IS to
time, Business seasons are Of va
fying length and of different IN
tensities. These changes have made
money for many people, and have
carried, others to their graves. In
fact, the presence of extreme due
tuations in conditions presents one
OF the greatest problem in our en-
tire commercial and economic worlds
today. Abnormal prosperity gives
us false ideas of values. Easy pro-
fits due to rising prices and sptcu-
lation undermine our habits of
work and thrift. We become IN.