The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-07-27
IRELAND FACES
 FRESH OUTBREAK. UNDER DE. VALERA.
Self-Styled President Is Awaiting His Chance
 To Strike
By CHARLES NJ. MCANN (By leased wire to Age-HeraId)

LONDON, July 26.-Ireland's deli cate political situation may alter to a serious military situation within the next few weeks. Two factors portend almost certain trouble-the Ulster boundary dispute and the release from prison of Eamonn De Valera, ''presi- dent of the Irish republic" De Va lera's release brought to a head the troubles besetting the Free State gov ernment set up by the treaty.
 De Valera is not only the leader of tile republican movement, but also the strongest figure in southern Ireland following the death of Arthur Griffin and the assassination of A1iachael Col lins. He hopes to resume active lead ership of what is now comic opera republic. but might at any moment be- come vital factor in Ireland.
 ,'. Has No Capital
 The "republic" has no capital. either in the geographic or financial sense. But it has it's toy cabinet, its toy judicial system, ready to function at. any moment. Also thousands of boys, most of them unemployed. and most of whom have arms and ammuni- tion hidden, are ready to rise at the word of command.
 De Valera has been thoroughly dis credited for a long time with Irish taxpayers. but they have never mat tered He has been discredited several times among the people generally, but they soon forgot It is not likely that he has. changed his views during his imprisonment. And his views are that the Free State government is an usurp- ing British instrument and must go in favor of a republic. There are three courses open to him
 1-To wait while and see whether the Free State government does not get into serious difficulties over the boundary dispute with Ulster.
 2-To work through the Free State parliament to ret the present govern rent out of office. He would do this thrnueh the new nationalist party in Dali Eireann--the Free State house of representatives-whi recently broke away from the government party and is now on the fence between free state ism and republicanism. apparently about to jump over onto the republican side. The republican party. as such. does not recognize the authority of the Free State and does not participate ln the Dail. se.f
 3-Attempt to start new civil WAT to overthrow the Free State and insti- tute renublican government. T
 De Valera is likely to work up to naao,,I norTea ffar frviuO fhp first But civil war might follow.
 J. H. Thomas. colonial minister in the British labor government. said re- cently in the House of Commons
 There are people in Ireland who continue to urge demands for repub- lie Any such demand would be as strongly repudiated by the labor gov ernment as by any previous govern ment The Irish treaty will be carried out in the letter and spirit@
 That will mean nething to De Va lera he and his followers say they are ready to fight for a republic.
 t. Not To Be Tolerated
 Great Britain will not tolerate one. First, British people generally are convinced that the great ma jority of Irish people are satisfied with do- minion status; they govern themselves and are equal partners in the tre- mendous British Empire. Secondly. they know that if there is a republic in southern Ireland. De Valera and his followers will run it; and that the basis of their political philosophy is hatred of Great Britain. It is felt that one of their first aims would be to form an alliance with any nation that might be hostile to Great Britain.
 The potential troubl i. Ireland may come through the boundary dispute. The Anglo-Irish treaty provided for re- vision of the border. between southern Ireland and Ulster, so as to include Tn the Free State certain portions of Ulster in which southern Irishmen pre- dominate. A boundary commission was provided for. It has never been set up because Ulster refuses to recognize it. and declares it will fight rather than accept it's findings if they are unfavo=- able to Ulster.
 Delay in instituting the commission has embarrassed the free state govern ment, already weak, so Great Britain has finally appointed a chairman-Jus- tice Feetham of the South African su- preme court. He is in Ireland now, try ing to effect a private settlement be- tween the parties. So far no progress has been reported If he fails, southern Ireland and Ulster each will be invited to name representative to serve on the commission. Ulster will refuse, and will claim that the commission cannot Op- crate legally without an Ulster member. A special judicial committee will decide. Lawyers here think Ulster will win.
 This would bring about serious sit nation, even if De Valera were still in jail. With De Valera at large, directing operations of the nationalist party in the Dail and the republican party in the field, the present government might be 9verthrown. Other possibilities would include civil war in southern Ireland ln attack on Ulster; or declaration of ! republic and probable British inter ,ention to prevent the setting up of hostile government. Whatever happens, he term, peace in Ireland is certain remain for a long time, as it has
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