The Idaho Republican. [volume] (Blackfoot, Idaho) 1904-1932, 1924-09-25
FORECASTERS SAY
MAINE ELECTIONS
INDICATE COOLIDGE
September Results Have
Been Consistent Guide
to Decision in Fall

1t is a tradition of American poll
tics that ''As Maine goes, so goe
the Nation" and because that stat
is the only one that holds its stat
elections in September, in a presi
Dental year its voting two months
before the November decision il
watched with interest by politica
experts and professional forecaster.
of the whole nation. A review o.
past elections showing the relation
of the Maine vote to the following
presidential result may give some
light on the basis for making the
September election in Maine bar.
ometer for predicting the evember
result in the nation.
Normally Maine is safely Repub-
lican but it has long been the claim
of Democratic managers that If they
could hold the Republican plurality
in that state to below 5000 in Sep
TENDER it is fair omen of Demo
cratic success in the nation in No
vember. This viewpoint is based
upon the theory that a reduced plur-
atty in Maine in September indi-
Gates the trend of public opinion
throughout the nation that will be
reflected in Democratic victories in
states that are normally classed as
doubtful and where a slight swing
of the pendulum of public opinion is
sufficient to determine the placing
of the electoral vote.
On the other hand plurality of
more than 10000 for the Republic
can ticket in the September election
in Maine is hailed by the leaders of
that party as foreshadowing Re-
publican victory in the national con-
test. While these signs have not
always held true, they have to such
an extent that there seems some
justification for using it as basis
for forecasts.
In examining the records for the
eleven presidential election years
from 1880 to 1920 inclusive, it is
found that the Maine test is mis-
leading in only three cases, in 1880,
1888 and in 1905, and in those cases
tHC IlCpuOllCdho WIN uCSP1CC tAC
omens. In 1880 the Republicans
elected Garfield president in spite
of the fact that in the September
election the Republicans failed to
have plurality in Maine ut all, but
it is pointed out in that year condi-
lions in the state were not normal
owing to fusion of Democrats and
Populists. In 1883 the Republicans
elected Harrison president, although
the Republican plurality in Maine in
September of that year was only
$4,000; and in 1908 Taft defeated
Bryan although the plurality for the
Republican candidate for governor
that year in Maine was less than |
5000. In 1920, the year of the
Harding tidal wave the Republican |
plurality in Maine in September was
65,346
This year, on September 8, Maine /
elected a governor and other state !
officers, United States senator and
four congressman. The vict RS were
all Republicans.
In the contest for governor, State
Senator Ralph o. Brewster won over
his Democratic opponent, former
Attorney General William R. Pat
tangall, by, a margin of more than
$4,000. In the senatorial contest,
Senator Bert NJ Fernald was re-
elected by plurality of more than
$4,000. The total vote was the
largest ever polled in the history of
the state.
Republican leaders see IN the re-
suit strong indication on pop liar ap-
proval of the administrators of Pres
ident Coolidge and basing their pre-
dictions on past records forecast his
triumphant election in November
To what extent the entrance OF
feet the November result OF course is
but it is one thing that
must be taken into consideration In
accepting the Maine result as bar
ometer. This point is referred to
by the Boston Globe which says:
'If the presidential contest this
year we're two-sided event, Names
would be surer guide
than it is. However, the national
is three-cornered fight
but the third ticket was not repre-
scented on the Maine ballots in Sep
TENDER. Granting that the barom-
eter is right in its relative reading
between the Democrats and Repub-
Leans, it is yet undisclosed what
will be the effect of the campaign Of
Mr.. LaFollette in seeking votes in q
territory which has been Republic
can in years when the Republicans
have carried the country" II