Evening star., 1924-11-23
BY l.. SETH sCHNITMAN.

washington has long been favored
with monthly figures on the number
OF agate lines of newspaper advertis-
Ing. And though thousands of news
paper readers have found much more
comfort in the advertisements them
selves than in the dry statistics
which indicate the extent Of those
advertisements. there lies, notwith-
standing, real economic Significance
IN the data on newspaper advertising.
AS measured quantitatively, by the
number of agate lines. advertising in
Washington newspapers was on the
decline from September. 1919, to
August of 1921, whence 1t moved up
ward till January. 1929, when the
downward trend was once again re-
sumed, only to again change It's course
in August of that year.
From January, 1923. through May.
the upward movement was again in
evidence. when a definite, yet brief,
recession was noted, after which the
forward movement remained uninter-
rupted until April Of this year. From
May. 1924, until August a definite
downward trend was exhibited, while
the September data exhibited a strik-
Ing recovery, which, in all probability,
Will continue to at least the end of the
year, II not longer.
Striking Comparison~
There Is. perhaps, no well defined
month-to-month correlation as be-
tween advertising and business. TAX
Ing the figures in their unadjusted
state. After adjustment for seasonal
conditions. however, as has been done
for the purpose of this article, the
reflection Of general business in this
not widely used Indicator Is of strik-
ing significance. Comparing adver-
ttsing with bank debts the latter half
of 1921 markedly reflected the in
creased commercial activity which
had begun to arrive on the tide of
recurring confidence In the business
outlook. Curiously enough, after this
activity had received sufficient impetus
and was even continuing, newspaper
was markedly trending
downward throughout the year 1922,
though that year, on the whole, was
larger than the previous one.
When one realizes that the inertia
had been overcome in the late months
of 1921 and that no practical neces-
sity for sustained advertising existed
since business was progressing with
out 1t. this apparent divergency is
easy of explanation. Here again, as
in my earlier article on postal re-
ceipts, II adjustment in bank debts
for upward price changes be made,
the year 1922 in Washington would
probably have more nearly coincided
with newspaper advertising.
Great Activity Noted.
The early months of 1928, with re-
spect to both advertising and bank
debts exhibited great activity and
this, SO far as advertising Is con-
cerned, may in no small measure be
attributed to the desire of adver-
tisers to again overcome the inertia
which was noted in business In the
late days of 1922. Since May, 1928,
and throughout the remainder of that
year bank debts were in the decline
was noticeable when re-
newed vigor again was brought to
bear upon the business somnambul-
ism Of the latter half of 1923 by in
creased advertising. While II may be
too sanguine to suggest that the In
creased commercial activity of early
1924 was a direct result Of earlier ad-
vertising, there is sufficient historical
evidence that advertising played no
small part. But when business failed
to respond to the extent hoped after
8 months of effort terminating In
April, 1924, advertisers apparently
nad O68On TO r6dllZS the uttcT use
lessness OF attempting to stem the
tide, for the time for business revival
was obviously not ripe. September,
1924, marked the turning point.
Coming now to the actual figures. In
1923 -, 175. 900 agate lines OF advertising
appeared in Washington papers as COM
pared with 1900, 900 in 1922 and 49,
275, 900 in 1921. The successive in
creases in the figures closely coincide
with those Of bank debts. and while no
figures are available to indicate the
amount Of money expended for news
paper advertising, the figures on lineage,
at the average rates. indicate In rough
outline the huge annual expenditure for
advertising In Washington through this
medium alone.
To be Of barometric value the monthly
statistics on advertising must be ad-
justed for the seasonal element. News
paper advertising 10 usually at its height
during October and November, when the
lineage Is normally II per cent above the
average. Coming next is the month of
May at 10 per cent above. with March
and December sharing the honors at
per cent above the average. Next In