Evening star., 1924-09-07

TlSS which SlTelcneS the
end OF hostilities to the present hour.
Unmistakably we are entering a
new phase of the postwar period.
Quite as patiently we are also be-
ginning what may well be a period
of political moratorium and this
period with even moderate luck may
cover several years, precisely those
years when the application of the
Dawes Report gives to Germany
time for recuperation and by allow
ing her foreign loans and demanding
of her only moderate reparation pay
mentS offers her no real temptation
TO resume evaSionS.
Looking backward for moment.
then. it is possible to divide the
years since the Armistice, the sixth
anniversary of which is approaching.
into distinct phases. Between the
actual ending of the fighting. on
November II, 1918, and the signing
of the Treaty of Versailles on June
%, 1919. the making of the peace set
tlement dominated the attention of
the world, the conference of Paris,
with its dramatic circumstances and
its disappointing results thus con-
stitutes a relatively compact period.
Major Issue Unsolved.
Eut the Treaty of Versailles left
open the major question of repara
tions, only deciding in principle that
Germany should pay the costs, not
of the war itself. but of injuries to
civilian populations. injuries not
alone expressed in lands and build
ings ravaged and destroyed. but also
IN pensions and separation allow
anceS. 1t remained then for the
Preparations Commission TO fix the
bill and this was accomplished by
May l, 1921 when Germany was
oa1 lnd nh1 ion
of approximately $4,000. 100000 and
to begin payment upon this colossal
sum, which, nevertheless, represent
ed material reduction on the figures
which had currency during the Paris
Conference itself. German resistance
to these demands led to the allied
ultimatum of May. 1921, which
brought German surrender and ac-
ceptance in form but not in reality.
Quite logically. then. we had the
third period, beginning on the NOR
row Of this London ultimatum and
extending up to January IL. 1928,
the date Of the Franco Belgian in
vasion of the Ruhr. This is the pc
riod during which a double process
takes place, the swift dissolution of
the understanding between France
and Britain, growing out of the di-
vergent interests of the two coun-
tries and the rapid development in
Germany of the spirit of resistance
to the reparations demands fixed by
the London ultimatum. Germany de-
cides not to pay, Britain decides that
Germany should not be made to pay
and France determines to make
Germany pay, satisfied that Germany
can pay.
Break Nearly Complete.
The Ruhr war, which follows, ex-
tends from January II to the closing
days of September, 1923. it is marked
by the almost complete break be-
tween the British and the French
and the absolute collapse of the fis-
cal system of Germany incident to
the effort to finance a hopeless pas
sive resistance by currency imitation.
When the conflict is terminated in
September by the unconditional sur
render of Germany, her economic
and fiscal prostration is quite as COM
plete as that of her armed forces at
the moment of the ArmiStice five
years before.
The last period. which extends
from the end of the Ruhr war to
the signing of the London Agree
ments for the application of the
Dawes report, that is almost exactly
a year, represents the first definite
effort to liquidate the European mess
by the employment of moderate
methods and the recourse to eco
nomic rather than political agencies
\ great deflation has taken place, a
defiation in the estimates of the
sums which can be obtained from
Germany. defation in the peculiar
ly egotistic policies of both the Brit
ish and French.
Five years have demonstrated pref
ty clearly that while Germany can
be brought to pay much, there are.
nevertheless, very clear limits to
reparations and payment must be
conditioned rather upon German
consent than upon coercion. In a
word, there is the tacit recognition
that allied coercion cannot bring the
huge sums hoped for in 1921, while
70 balance this is the German per-
ception that the endeavor to escape
completely means only the ruin of
continued Ruhr occupation
Accord Proved Necessary.
Meantime the British and the
French have proven to each others
satisfaction that neither can have
unrestrained mastery. Lloyd George
in his long struggle has gone down
to defeat before Poincare and Wis.,
count Curzon. who continued the
battle under Bonar Law, and Stanley
Baldwin has had similar fate.
Moreover a labor government has
succeeded both coalition and tory,
largely because of national impa-
thence at the fatal lowering of Brit
ish prestige in the world.
BY contrast the political victories
of Poincare have had evil effect for
France. The occupation of the Ruhr
has harvested more criticism than
cash. 1t is clear that the Ruhr is
not itself an end and that the real
problem remains how to turn the
tor ;y,t@ L
after the close of hostilities the three
great combatants are at last in
mood to talk, France wants money,
Germany wants peace and Great
Britain wants trade, half a decade
has proven that no one of the three
can realize personal necessities save
in agreement with the other two.
This is the point at which the sus-
pended offer of Mr.. Hughes, made in
the New Haven speech of December,
1922, becomes available. America re-
news her declaration of willingness
to cooperate, through experts, in the
solution of the European mess, pro-
vided solution is the end, and the old
sterile game of national interests is
abandoned. America is too precisely
the one country which can be useful,
not because of higher intelligence or
wiser craftsmanship, not because of
better morals or higher ideals, but
purely and simply because America
has no immediate and dominating
concern which will warp it's vision
and dominate it's policies.
Period of Liquidation.
So after five years of defation we
enter the period of liquidation, and
this is the period of the Dawes report,
terminating in the London confer
cnce, and on August 80 in the signing
OF the London compacts. And these
compactS mean something vastly
moro important than is written in