Evening star., 1924-12-21

in q coalition cabinet, should attempt
20 restore the monarchy or tear up
the treaty of Versailles, then the i'm
mediate consequence would be the
postponement OF the evacuation OF
the Ruhr and the Rhine, the cessa-
tion of foreign loans, a new crisis in
currency and beyond much doubt the
same sort of strike which accom- =
panied the Kapp Putsch several years
ago and abruptly ended the most
dangerous effort to restore the mon
archy which has been made since
1913.
Face Hopeless Isxue.
Thus the Nationalists face rather
hopeless dilemma, even II they do
take Office. They must either do next
10 nothing and thus demolish their
own indictments of the Republicans
or they must undertake dangerous
measures which will lead straight to
complications at home and abroad
and to disasters which can hardly
by exaggerated. Yet until they have
taken Office and failed to produce
miracles they will still have a GER
tain obvious political advantage, since
they will be able to criticize without
having to face fatal comparisons.
It might. however, seem that Ma
ttonalist cabinet would mean new
peril to the peace OF Europe. That
II would mean a period of uncertainty
and to that extent postpone the re-
covery which, within and without
Germany, has been marching very
rapidly in the past year, it is mani
fest. But that it would mean a new
war seems wholly unlikely. After
al, In August, 1914, Germany had
the finest military machine the world
Lad ever seen, the fruit of 40 years
Of magnificent preparations. Yet that
machine was decisively beaten at the
Marine within seven weeks after the
outbreak of the struggle and COM
pclled to dig in to hold It's liness in
France. Can one then expect that an
iInprovised machine, without heavy
artillery, tanks. adequate air fleets,
would fare better today, when the
Rhine is in allied hands, the Ruhr
still garrisoned by French and Bel
gian troops and Polish frontiers but
Il, hundred miles from Berlin? -
Many Are Undecided.
It is fairly generally agreed that
a majority of the people of Germany
are still, at best, undecided as to the
relative merits of republic and mon
archy; perhaps majority still in
cline to the latter system. The mis-
fortune of the Republican cause lies
the war provoked and conducted by
the monarchists and consent to the
sacrifices which the loss of the war
had made inevitable. Thus many
Germans hold the republic and no.
the empire responsible for the present
plight Of the Reich. This Is as nat
ural as II is unreasonable.
It Is only recently, too, that there
has been any adequate appreciation
on the allied side that it was the
part OF wisdom to help the German
Republicans, since their continued
control was desirab BILE from every
standpoint. In the past Ave years
there has been an unmistakable de-
cline in the popularity of the Re
publican cause, and the election last
Spring marked dead low water The
election of December Z, on the con.
trary, saw a real turn of the tide
but not a decisive recovery Of los
ground.
II a formation Of Nationals
cabinet now meant a certain restora
tion of the Hohenzollern dynasty OF
an immediate repudiation Of thu
Dawes plan, the outlook would b'
bleak. But there remain differences
between Hohenzollern Wittelsbacl
royalties, that is between Prussial
and Bavarian dynasties, and also :
difference of opinion between mon
archists as to the wisdom Of attempt
ing a new revolution at this moment
The industrialists, who are very in
nuential, would probably combine Il
prevent this, for they still need for
eign loans.
Republican, Might Profit.
Thus, as so frequently in recen
years, what looks evil might easil!
turn out for the best, and Nationals
cabinet might be an anodyne on tn
reaotionary side as was the Labo
cabinet In Britain on the radical side
Escaping from responsibility, the Re
puolicans might be able to profit a
largely as the Nationalists hav
proflted by Republican tenure of of1c
in tho past five years. Next Spring
when the test of a presidential elec
tton comes, the tendencies REVEALED
a few weeks ago in the election ma:
have become much more powerful.
As have said, a Nationalist min
i@try seems - inevitable syentuau'