Evening star., 1924-12-26
COOLIDGE WORKING
TO HOLD MAJORITY
TWO YEARS HENCE
President and Party Studying
Final Vote to Decide Third
Party Vitality.
CONSERVATIVES BIG LEAD
NO FRACTION" MANDATE
Problem of Democrats Is to Com
bine Davis and La Toilette Types
of Partisans.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
The politicians have not finished
studying the official figures of the
presidential election, just compiled.
and the chances are they will not fin
ish for many months to come. For
the final data presents much food for
thought, and cannot but have sig
niticant effect on the plans of indie
pendents to form a permanent third
party organization.
Notwithstanding the great popular
ity of Theodore Roosevelt, he did not
in 1912 poll as many votes as did La
Toilette in 1924, but allowance must
be made for the fact that women did
not vote IL years ago The differ
ence, nevertheless, was only about
100000 in favor of La Toilette. In
spite of this, La Toilette received
only 13 electoral votes, while Col.
Roosevelt received S5. La Toilette
was third in the popular vote, as
well as in the electoral vote. Roose-
welt ran second In both electoral and
popular vote.
Only Splits Old Parties.
The most important inference. how
ever, is that an independent OF the
type of Roosevelt and an even more
radical individual like Senator La
Toilette doesn't succeed in capturing
majority, but simply splits one Of
the two old parties. In 1912 the
Democrats benefited by the Repub-
lican break and in 1924 the Repuh-
licans had the advantage of a split
in the Democratic party.
Mr. Wilson in 1912 was unable,
however. to poll a majority Of the
popular vote, while Mr.. Coolidge sue
ceeded in rolling up a majority over
h ~
100000 votes. and, of course, in the
electoral college had a substantial
majority.
Under the circumstances the prob
lem of the progressives and independ-
ents is to find a way not only 10 com
bine the La Toilette and Davis totals
but to win back from the Republican
ranks the millions of Democratic
voters who strayed from the fold be-
cause of a fear of the radicalism of
La Toilette or that the election would
be thrown into the House of Repre-
sentatives for decision and that busi-
ness would suffer because of the pc
riod of uncertainty.
Third Party May Survive.
To combine the La Toilette and
Davis totals, however, is easier said
than done. The very easons which
the Republican ranks might serve to
hold them there again il the Demo-
Gratis simply nominated a La Toilette
type of candidate, and there is no
telling how many more would have
gone from the Democratic party if
conservative like John w. Davis had
not been the nominee. Yet If the con-
servative wing of the Democratic
party doesn't do something to win the
al latt hn Jx-h n
supported the La Toilette party will
not be won to either the Republican
or Democratic nominees, but will stay
in an independent group if a man OF
La Follettes prestige happens to be
the candidate and q serious effort is
made to maintain a third party.
The outstanding point about the fig
ures is that the conservatives rule the
political fortunes of the United States
in this era. The Republican vote this
year was 15,T1S,7S9. which represents
conservatism. The Democratic vote Of
S,37S,962 was in large part conserva-
tive, too. The radicals had only 4,S22,-
S19 out of total of 28,92o, ,070, which Is
encouraging for the conservatives. to
say the least.
Radicals Arc Hopeful.
The radicals, on the other hand, feel
encouraged-or they say they do. They
hope to win even more from the Demo
cratic party next time, and thus turn
the latter into = liberal organization,
Notwithstanding the opposition Of the
solid South. The South usually votes for
the Democratic nominee, whether ne IS
radical or conseTVa-iEr, so II the radl-
Gals are out to capture the machinery OF
the Democratic party they can count on
Democratic aid from the South for their
nominee and the essential requirement
is to win the Northern and Western
States.
Tho conservative Democrats, es-
pecially those who control the party
in Illinois, New York, Massachusetts
and New Jersey, would resist the
La Toilette invasion. The only hope
of either the La Toilette radicals ard
Democratic conservatives would be
a compromise on man not SC
radical as the Wisconsin Senator, but
capable of holding his vot<. and not
so conservative as John w. Davis.
Coolidge Looks Ahend.
Such a liberal might win back
some of the Democratic votes from
the Republican fold. The upshot OF
the whole thing is that the people
of the United States reverse them-
selves often and there Is a chance
always for an opposition party to
corral the discontented elements.
Conservatism has a four-year lease
of life, but the congressional cleo
tions two years hence win give tho
first indication of whether the coun-
try is going to turn over TO the other
side.
Nobody perhaps realizes better
than does President Coolidge that the
mandate of the last election was not
n verdict for unreStrained conserva-
tism, but that his administration
must be conducted with an idea OF
retaining the millions who do not
class themselves as conservatives, but
who are liberals in the sense that they
eschew radical doctrine and prefer n
course midway between the extremes Of
and radicalism