Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1924-10-16
POLITICAL SUMMARY
Of WESTERN STATES
GIVEN BY LAWRENCE
BY DAVID LAWRENCE
prial Miro 70 Tho .TDurn1l Il 'On

Crossing the politica, divide from
the agricultural west to the indus
trial east, with three weeks of the
campaign still ahead, the territory
left behind may yet show some
changes here and there but, fun
damentally, the lines of battle are
drawn, and the tide of prejudice or
favor, as the case may be, has set
in
-Four conclusions, however, can be
drawn at this time without much
doubt on the part of the writer that
subsequent developments ina the
west area will upset his analysis.
First, Senator Robert NJ. La
Toilette has not been, and will not
be the decisive factor in the coming
election so far a the west is con-
Cerned.
Second, the electoral vote of La
Toilette will be less than that Of
Colonel Roosevelt in 1912 when he
polled lightweight electoral votes.
Third, in several states La Toilette
has taken away so many Democratic
votes that he is in effect the ally OF
President CooBdSe because Coolidge
pluralities, seem certain to result
from the big detection of Democrats
to the third party ticket.
Fourth, La Toilette will not get
enough votes to throw the election
into the house of representatives,
unless John W. Davis shows
greater strength than President
Coolidge in the principal eastern
/ states.
~ Victory for Davis
In that case, in all proba ability.
the drift in the direction of Davis
would insure not a deadlock, but q
Democratic victory, for the east as
whole is not spotty, but generally
of the same political mind.
Giving john w. Davis the fifty
one votes of the normally Demo.
cratic states, which means Arizona.
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky and
Maryland, in addition to the 127
electoral votes obtained by Cover
nor Cox in 1920 from the solid south,
the total for Davis is IFS.
Now there are no states in the
west Of which Davis can feel abso-
lutely sure, nor are there any west
ern states, with possibly two excep-
tions-Wisconsin and North Dakota
of which La F'ollette can feel sure.
But, assuming that La Toilette
"CLV ~ NC given lilO oldlCS All
which he is running second, these
would be Iowa, Minnesota, Montana,
Nebraska, Wyoming and they make,
with Wisconsin and North Dakota,
only fifty-eight electoral votes.
Adding these fifty-eight to the 178
for Davis, the total is 236, which
may be called the non-Coolidge vote.
This leaves 295 votes, and, if Cool
tdSe could get all of them, he would
win, as 266 is the majority Of the
electoral college of 531.
What are the states which make
up that 295?
Some, like California, Oregon and
Colorado, are typical of the western
strength of President Coolidge, and
some, like Pennsylvania and Massa-
chusetts and Maine, are the rock
ribbed Republican areas. What con-
Germs the analyst is the doubtful
states, or, to put it in another way,
those states on which the Democrats
this time pin their hopes.
These are Indiana. Is; New Jer.
sey, IA; New York, As; Ohio, "a, and
West Virginia, s.
OF these 106 votes, President Cool
1dge must carry all but Twenty-Five.
If he loses those twenty-nine to
ICctNl Inc elcCllOIl WOulu DC l1IOWU
into the house or representatives,
because even if all the twenty nine
went to Davis they wouldn't be
enough, with his t7S, to make the
necessary 266. If he lost them to
La Toilette, it would still mean a
deadlock, because no one of the three
candidates would have a. majority.
All this would seem to indicate a
close result, but it must not be for.
gotten that. at the outset this dis
patch. the writer assumed, for pur
poses Ct analysis, that La Toilette
might get a maximum of So votes
in the west. That was the general
opinion in the east when this CORE
spondent began his tour, but it was
found to be true on actual inVestiga-
ton.
La Toilette Strength Theoretical
For the So votes are imaginary,
and, while the popular vote of La
Toilette will be large, this writer
would not be surprised if the Wis
consir senator carried only Wiscon.
sin and North Dakota, and these
states by a close squeeze.
SO the situation would appear to
be IFS votes for Davis plus about 80
for La Toilette. making POS nonCOol-
tdse votes reasonably certain, which
leaves S23 possible votes for Presi
dent Coolidge.
Now the president can lose Sc
votes and still win, but will he?
The answer is not to be found in
the west, but in the east. The writer
expects, between now and the first Of
November to visit Kentucky, Indi-
ana, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland,
: Delaware, New Jersey, New York,
Connecticut, Rhode Island and Mas
sachusetts. where the Democrats
must get their votes to win. At me
end of the tour, an analysis of the
eastern states will appear in these
columns.