Evening star., 1924-09-13
By ROGER w. BABSON.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

special Dispatch to The Star.
WELLESLEY HILLS. Mass, Sep
tember 13.-Since the receivership of
Wilson & Co. | have been making
study of the packing house situation
with special reference to the cattle
business
1t has generally been known that
the cattle rasers of the country have
suffered severe losses during the past
few years. but few realize the extent
to which the business has been liqui-
dated Briefly, the situation is that
selling at around 80 per hundred
weight on the hoof in Chicago. The
price went up to $3.50 in August.
1919. BY December. 1921. it had de-
clined to a low OF $40. The present
price is approximately $3.50 per hun
dredweight Live beef is selling in
Chicago at about pre-war prices. All
costs in the industry meantime are.
of course, on the postwar scale.
Lossex Run Into Millions.
Considering that there are as many.
or more. cattle in the country today
than ever before, this means a loss
of hundreds of millions Of dollars,
which has been absorbed all the way
down the line from the ranchmen
on the prairies of the great West to
=
Every one connected with the industry
has suffered almost continual losses
since August, 1919. The result of this
has been that the country is dotted
with failures here and there, starting
with the farmers and the ranchmen
and running through to the great
packers of Chicago.
Other great industries. such as cop
per, leather and oils. are in the proc
nj n nd ri tItS g tTr1a
but none of them has suffered SO
severely as has the cattle business.
slump in Land Values.
This very fact. however, makes me
optimistic rather than pessimistic on
the cattle industry at the present
time The failure of Wilson & Co.
may be the storm before the clear
ing. 1t is always darkest just before
dawn and a general cleaning up
seems to be inevitable before an in
dustry again begins on the upward
trend. The liquidation in the cattle
industry has been very drastic.
Farmers, cattle men and packers
have taken tremendous losses.
Ranches in the West which sold for,
100000 ten years ago can now be
sum.
In some States, like Wyoming. the
cattle industry is becoming almost
extinct. The ranch men are grad
uaIly closing out business and ship
ping their last cattle. These very
facts, however. lead me to believe
that the liquidation is about COM
plete and that conditions should soon
improve. Surely, when man Is fat
on his back there is only one way he
can look; namely, upward. The cat
tie industry is certainly on it's back at
the present time.
Personally. I am more hopeful on
the price of beef for the long pull
than i am on the price of some other
products AS people become more
prosperous they eat more beef; that
is, the consumption of beef increases
even where the population remains
constant This is not so in the case
Of wheat, for instance. A well-to-do
family does not eat any more wheat
than a poor family, and probably not
as much. On the other hand, a we'll
to-do family does spend more on beef
than a poor family.
been severely hit by the automobile.
Many people who have bought auto
mobiles during the past few years
have found 1t necessary to economize
on something in order to pay up their
notes on the automobile and buy
gasoline, oil and tires. One of the
few things they could economize on
was beef. They found it not essen
tial to existence and that they could
get on with less than they formerly
purchased.
However, as the country gets ad-
justed to each family having an au-
tomobile the demand for beef will
again increase. People have always
eaten beef and always will. Without
doubt, over a long period of years,
the per capita consumption is bound
to increase. / am optimistic on the
beef industry for the long pull.
Trouble With Distribution.
Why has not this decline in the
price Of cattle been reflected more in
the retail price Of meat products? I
don't know.
Statistics clearly indicate that the
consumer has not yet received the
benefit of the decline of cattle on the
hoof. Why, I don't know. II the
packers were making big money now
we would know that they were bene-
fitting in this decline in the price of
cattle. AS above stated, however, no
one is making money and the price