Evening star., 1924-04-12
BY ROGER w. BABSON.

BABSON PARK, Fla, April 12.--
The recent declines have been in
strict accordance with the long swing
trend of commodity prices, and it is
probable that over period of years
( this general decline will continue.
Whether further recessons can be ex-
pected Immediately or not depends
very largely upon Industrial activity.
Commodity prices at present are
bound up with the building situation,
the automobile and the textile indus
tries. What is to happen to the
building industry before the end of
1924 cannot be told at this time, but
1t seems to be holding it's own very
well at present. There has been a
falling off in certain lines of building,
TO be sure, but home construction is
continuing at a fair rate. This is
largely due to the fact that the auto
mobile is enabling people to move
from congested centers to the sub
urbs and the country. Such "migra-
ton" can be depended upon to con-
tinue for some yeafj to come The
good wages that mechanics and
others are getting also help to in
crease home building.
Lumber Sales Decline.
Statistics on lumber sales now
available show a per cent decrease
In shipments as compared with the
same period of last year. AS against
TINS decline we find production so far
shows an increase of per cent.
This slight decline in shipping, to-
Sether with increased production ex-
plains the recent softness in the price
of certain grades of lumber. Cement
is still in a sound position, owing to
continued activity in road building.
Most other building materials are
stlIl steady in price. but there is a
great difference of opinion as to how
long quotations will remain at their
present level
The production of automobiles is
stilI at high tide and is now running
AT ABOUT 80 per cent above the spring
oI 1879. Needless to say, this is a
very nigh figure for this season of
the year. Distributing costs mean
'lrne are increasing and immediate
sales are slowing up. The situation
mas been interpreted in different ways
by different manufacturers. Some
companies have increased the price
OF their cars, others have reduced
prices on certain models. Certain
manufacturers have obviated the ne
cesslty of reducing prices by bring
ing out an entirely new model
Tire Production Shown.
MoSt OF the tire manufacturers are
feeling distinctly better for the time
being. One company, at least, in
Akron. has announced that they will
not take on any more dealers for
the next three months because their
factories have all the orders that
they can handle. The total tire pro-
ductlon is running over 1000 900 per
month and the 1924 output should
exceed that of 1928 OF course, the
great question in this field today is
that of the future of the balloon tire
Investors in tire securities should
watch this development very care
fully. If the public Stampedes for
balloon tires it means that this type
VIII rise in price, while the old high
pressure tire will decline during the
next year or two.
SO long as automobile production
holds up the steel business should
continue to be prosperous, as the two
are now linked very closely. The un-
filled orders of steel corporation are
about 100000 tons at the present
or an increase of 100000 tons over
the first of the year. On the other