The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1924-04-19
HARD FIGHT
FACE:DBY
COP.
Analysis Shows Democrats in
Strategic Position for
Big Gains.
BY GLADSTONE WILLIAMS,
Cosmopolitan News Service.

Cosmopolitan News Service.
Besides the oil scandal with it's
possible effect upon the national
political situation, conservative
Republican leaders are now worry
ing over the complexion Of the
next United States Senate.
An analysis of the situation has
convinced them that nothing short
Of a miracle will be required to
enable the conservative element Of
the party to survive the coming
elections with anything like an
actual working majority in that
body, even in the event of a
Coolidge victory.
One-Third Face Voters.
Unlike the House, only one-third
Of the Senate's. membership is
elected every two years. This year
thirty-two members of the body
face the polls. OF the number,
seventeen are Republicans, fourteen
are Democrats. and one a Farm
Laborite - Magnus johnson, Of
Minnesota.
Thus, on the face of things, the
Republicans are handicapped in
that they win be forced to contest
more seats than their opponents.
But this does not tell the whole
story. Eleven Of the fourteen
Democratic vacancies arise in
States which are regarded as Ger.
tain Democratic territory, while
only nine Of the seventeen Re.
publican vacancies are in G. o. p.
territory.
G. O. p. Handicapped.
The present lineup in the Senate
as between the two major parties
Is fifty-one Republicans and forty.
three Democrats, there being two
Farm-LaboriteS. On the assump-
ton that both parties win win the
Senatorial elections in those States
included in their respective terri
tories, the line UP, minus the eleven
vacancies In doubtful States, would
be forty-three Republicans as
against forty Democrats. In order
" to secure a majority 1t would there.
fore be necessary for the Re-
publicans to win at least six of the
eleven doubtful vacancies, which
would give them forty-nine Of the
ninety-Six votes in the chamber, or
q bare majority over the combined
Democratic and Farm-Laborite
forces.
The figures are arrived at by
subtracting the Democratic and Re-
publican vacancies to be filled this
fall from their respective present
representation and then adding the
number Of certainties which each
party is expected to elect.
PrOgressives Hold Over.
To further complicate the situa.
ton, five of the so-called Repub-
ican radicals, progressives or inde-
pendents do not come up for re-
election this year, including La Fol-
lette, Ladd, Frazier, Norbeck and
Howell. Six Of them do; namely,
Borah, Brookhart, Capper, Couzens,
Norris and McNary. Most Of them,
according to present indications,
will be reelected, only one of them
(Couzens) being included in doubtful
territory.
conservative, Republicans say, that
the next Senate will be dominated
by the same progressive group hold.
Ing the balance Of power in the
present body.
The eleven vacancies which the
Democrats are counted upon to cap
ture are in the following States:
South Carolina, Virginia, Mississippi,
Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas,
Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina,
Georgia and Montana, where Sen.
ator Thomas j. Walsh comes up
for election.
Doubtful States.
The three States which have
Democratic Senators with terms ex.
piring next March and which are
included in the doubtful territory
are Massachusetts, Kentucky and
Oklahoma. Where a State now has
its Senatorial representation divided
between Democrats and Republicans
1t is classed as doubtful. !
Following are those classed as
Republican certainties or where
both seats are held by Republicans:
Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, New
Hampshire, Illinois, Oregon, Ne.
braska and South Dakota. The
eight States included in the Repub-
lican doubtful column are Delaware,
New Mexico, Rhode Island, Michi-
gan, New Jersey, West Virginia,
Colorado and Wyoming, all Of which
are now represented by one Repub.
lican and one Democrat.
Having two Farm-Laborite Sen.
ators, Minnesota is placed in a
separate column Of that description.