Evening star., 1924-12-21
ny FRANK III. SIMONDS.


Huenne Of the inconclusive results of the
efect'hn OF December Z, serves once
moTr to remind the outside world of
the underlying confusion which remains
in the whole German political situation
The paradox of the present crisis lies
IN the fact that while the returns of the
recent election disclosed considerable
IF by no means decisive gain for the
parties which openly supported the re-
public. the first Interpretation placed
upon the election results was that they
insured the replacing of republican by
a reacttonary cabinet.
Social Democratic Gain.
Looking to the election returns them
selves for a moment, il will be seen that
the single party which without qualifica-
.tion supports the republIc-namely, the
Social Democratic-gained 80 seats and
became the largest party in the new
Reichstag, holding 130 seats Minor
gains were also achieved by the Cleri-
Gals and the Democrats, who came OUT
for the republic, too, but not with the
flnality OF the Social Democrats. On the
other hand, the Communists and the EX-
sreme Nationalsts. the declared foes of
the republic, lost II and Is seats, re-
spectiveiy, while the Nationalists, the
more or less moderate reactionaries,
gained few seats. but at the expense
Of their extreme allies.
Nevertheless, the upshot of the cleo
ton was that neither the parties cham
pioning the republic nor the Nationalists
obtained a clear majority. Therefore
the problem involved the familiar con-
tinental solution of bloc. In other
words, the solution, il one were to have
any ministry, was combination of sew
erai parties, whose collective strength
in the Reichstag would supply a ma
1ortty for coalition cabinet.
Coalition In DiHcuIt.
Such a coalition. however, proved
excessively difficult to make. because
Of the very profound divisions be-
tween all of the several parties. Thus,
at the present moment there are in
Germany seven or eight parties of
Importance. These, in their order,
are: Social Democrats, NationaIlsts,
Clericals. Peoples party, Conmu-
nists, Democrats, Bavarian Peoples
party and Eoelkische or Extreme Ma
tionalists. The embership OF these
parties in the new Reichstag is, re-
Fpectively, $50, 1o2, 6S, so, 40, 80. 20
and Il.
In the outgoing Chamber the Marx
Stresemann cabinet represented
combination of the Ciericals. Demo-
Gratis, Peoples. Bavarian Peoples,
with the votes of the Social Demo-
Gratis, who did not. however. partici-
pate in the government directly by
holding office. Therefore, actually,
the Reichstag was ruled by a minor
ity which existed on the sufferance of
the Social Democrats. This minority
stood firmly upon two issues, the
maintenance OF the republic and the
acceptance and continuation of the
Dawes plan.
Reason for Fall.
The ultimate fall of the cabinet
he a1n n 4 irI I1l 81,
fall were the result of the efforts of
Stresemann, heading the Peoples
party, (Which is the party of the in
dustrialists, to bring the Nationalists
into the government and thus create
bloc, with a real majority. In real
ity this would have amounted to sub
Stituting the participating co-opera-
tton of the Nationalists, who are mon
archists, for the non participating
support or the Social Democrats who
are Republicans. But such coali-
. ton before election was impossible
because the Nationalists were unwill-
ing to give any assurance either of
supporting the republic or of accept
ing definttively the Dawes plan.
The hope of all who believe in
the republic was that the election
would result in a clear triumph for
the three parties supporting the re-
public, namely. the Social Democrats
Clericals and Democrats. This would
have restored the situation which
existed before the election Of last
May, when these three parties con-
frolled ESQ votes in a Reichstag of
46o members. 1t was, moreover, the |
resentment of the German people pro-
Noked by the occupation of the Ruhr |
which had brought disaster to these |
three parties, who held but 203 seats
after the May election.
Standing of Parties.
On the face of the figures for the
latest election, the coalition of the
Social Democrats. Democrats and
Clericals will count 23O seats in the
new Reichstag, which will have just
over 400 members, the size of the
German chamber being in direct rela-
lion to the total of votes cast. BY
contrast the two monarchial and
nationalist parties will together count
tl6 seats, while with the Peoples
party they would number but 166.
Hostile to both would be the As mem
bers of the Communist party. which
opposes the republic, the restoration
of the monarchy and would repeat in
Germany the Russian Soviet expert
ment.
Even with the aid of the Bavarian
Peoples party the Nationalists would
still count 1876 as against 230 for the
Republican parties, therefore, 1t
might seem that the only rational
solution was some sort of bloc based
upon the Republican strength. But
the difficulty lies in the fact that
in the Republican group only the
Social Democrats are united and
there are both Clericals and Demo-
Gratis who would prefer making a
combination with the Nationalists to
:oining hands with the Social DEM
ocrats, which means that both these
parties contain monarchiSts.
Estimates of Strength.
Various estimates have been sent
from Berlin which seek to establish
the relative strength of the Mon
archists and Republicans in the new
Retohstag, without relation to more
or less shadowy party affiliations.
The most familiar estimate sets down
230 Nationalists and eos Republicans,
which with As Communists would
account for 483 of the members of
the new chamber, leaving something
like 10 for the minor parties, which
are based upon local issues.
Il is manifest, then, that since the
Nationalists outnumber the Repub-
Iicans, the formation of Nationalist
ministry would be likely, but it is
not less patent that such ministry
would be terribly insecure, because
il could be defeated at any moment
the Communists Joined the Social
Democrats and other republicans in
E voting against 1t.
A new ministry on the lines indi-
Gated would include the Nationalists,
Clericals, Peoples, Democrats and
Bayarian Peoples. 1t would have on
T. H-&~