The Birmingham age-herald., 1924-12-07
Money Emerges As Business
 Riddle As Trade Revives
Bank Deposits Outstrip Loans And Production
 Is Gaining
Bv JOHN T. FLYNN

By JOHN II. fLANN
 NEW YORK, Dec. 6.-As the air clears in the first pause following the post-election burst of optimism, it Is the money situation which emerges as the one to be watched most intently. It must not be supposed that there is any danger of dislocation or shortage here. Far from 1t. The thing that calls for constant scrutiny is the continued ex- cess of money. It is but a few weeks ago that Wall street was predicting that the New York federal reserve bank would boost the rediscoNpt rate. New ertheless the board did not act and while rumblings of higher money have been heard daily ever since, nothing in the situation has occurred to change the fundamental basis of money rates.
 Notwithstanding the enormous volume of security trading and the immense foreign loans, the supplies Of money continue high. And deposits, so far as the latest reports of the federal reserve banks show, continue to outstrtr loans. After operations for the month are all totaled up, it is seen that corporate financing during November was very small, about half what 1t was in the same month a year ago.
 On the other hand the bonds called in advance of maturity have been very last year. There is nothing alarming in these things. On the contrary. 6ut there is this factor to be observed-that with these immense resources of credit and with the country moving into con- dition of extreme confidence and op- timism, a sudden burst Of expansion may be precipitated. All of the ele- ments of imitation have been present for more than a year. The one thing lack ing was the broad and unchecked stream of confidence which might lead manufacturers and merchants into an adventurous use of these inflationary elements. Now, however, much of the uper-caution has been dissipated. There Is a sort of tugging at the leash and growing sentiment that the time to push ahead is here. The key to all this business man is he who will watch this carefully.
 Moderate Growth
 The most cheering aspect of the whole situation is that such growth as has manifested itself has been moderate not only in the general situation, but in quarters which have been registering gloom for long time. There has been a marked improvement in production The thirty days of November, with it's holidays, saw a larger output of pig iron than the 31 days of October. More furnaces went into blast and the outlook is for still heavier production during the current month. The United States Steel corporation is now operating at 75 per cent of capacity.
 Automobiles
 The attention of the automotive in- Iv,e. II k~I -I- for sales of passenger cars and motor trucks after the first of the year than to the prospects for any increase in business during the remaining weeks of this year. The low condition of finished stocks in dealers hands and the small inventories of parts and materials held by producers lead to an optimistic feel ing among all manufacturing branches of the industry for an upturn in pro- duction schedules early in 192o.
 Passenger car makers may start in- creasing their orders with parts makers the latter part of the month, instead of waiting for the year to open, though their schedules for early 1925 opera tions will not be fixed definitely until after show time. There will be some curtailment in car output this month, not only because of the expected lighter retail sales, sales, but because many of the plants will close during the holiday season for plant overhauling.
 Speeding Up The SpindIes
 The resumption of textile output con- tinues. This goes on in spite of the high prices of raw material. The reduction of wages in the textile mills continues and every day brings news of new fac tories starting up. While the high prices of raw materials have made 1t neces- sary to maintain the price levels and In Is no let up in the market. Stocks of merchandise are low in the hands of wholesalers and retailers and each little cold spell brings bigger orders.
 Wholesale Trade
 There has been a gain in wholesale trade in the report for October. These are the latest available. Since Janu- ary the volume of wholesale business has been less than that in the corre- spending period last year. But since July the business of this year has been slowly approaching the line of last years operations, until in September we were doing as well as in 1923. The rate of gain in October was not as great as in October last year. There was temporary check due to the ap- preaching elections, the lateness of the season and the hesitation because of plans under way for resumine textile a more than seasonal drop in November ana December of last year. There Is no piece of statistical information that IS looked for with more interest than the figures on November of this year.
 Retail Trade
 The mail order houses went up with a boost in their October business. They showed gain of 35 per cent over Sep tember and of z per cent over last Oc- tober. Grocery stores which register inc buying power of the masses of the pop uiatlon, increased sales 36 per cent over last October and 25 per cent over Sep temper. Five and ten-cent stores, drug stores, cigar stores all showed gains. significant increases are registered in music and candy stores which are usu- any among the first to suffer, when things are bad.
 The lateness of the season held back in the department stores, so that they did not do as we'll this october as last. But they showed the normal seasonal gain over September. what they did not show was the gain over and above the seasonal improve 
 The Dollar Loses A Little
 me buying power of the dollar is or prices is up. There is a variation Tn the degree of rise from week to week. But the unmistakable curve is up. One of the greatest manufacturers Tn the world this week told me that he peIeved that the tendency is going to pc Tor rising prices over a long course or years. There will be temporary slumps, but the general main movement will be up. He operates fifty immense factories and he informs me his busi- ness Is geared to that prophecy.
 some Of The Slow Trades
 Things are by no means all roses There are few bad spots. The cloth ing trade continues to be one of them. There must be an immense amount OF internal readjustment before this busi- ness Is on an economic basis, But while suffering from all Of it's own