Evening star., 1924-09-07

will buy from Britain, and if the
price is fixed below the British,
French heavy industry will be able
to compete with British advan-
| tageously, while a combination of
| cheap iron for Germany and cheap
coal for France-that is. some form
OF F'ranco-German iron and steel
combination-would be disastrous in
the extreme for the British. given
the advantages France would derive
from cheap money and Germany
from increased hours of labor.
France, on the contrary, having
shown Germany that she has the
power and will to use coercion il
necessary, and being still both in the
huhr and on the middle Rhine, has
certain clear trading bases of her
own, although her position is COM
promised materially both by her debt
TO the British and to ourselves. In
reality the issue now comes down to
struggle between the British and
the French to take advantage of Ger
man recovery, the British by placing
limits on this recovery, the French by
turning it to their advantage.
No New Invasion Likely.
In this new period it is highly un-
likely that we shall see any new re-
sort to force, although the French are
still free to repeat the Ruhr opera-
tion, provided Germany is declared
willfully in default. 1t may even be
that France will presently be more
Interested In German recovery than
the British, provided that recovery is
attended by a Franco-German eco
nomic association and deprived of
any military menace for French Sc
curity. 1t is even conceivable, fam
tastic as it may now seem, that at
no remote date the British and French
positions of the recent past will be
entirely reversed and Britain seek to
check, France to promote German
recovery.
In all this struggle we shall be con-
cerned, because, quite patiently, the
Dawes plan has been adopted be-
cause it was American and had Amer
lean Endorsement. But even at the
outset 1t is equally clear that the ef-
feet may be such that British as well
as German endeavor will be to obtain
new notifications, while the French
VIII insist upon integral application
and rely upon our support in main
tanning the terms therein contained.
1T would be grave mistake to re-
gard the Dawes plan and it's adoption
as representing the settlement of the
european tangle. 1t does represent
two things; we are now to have
period of political calm and a gradual
and perhaps rapid lessenipg of mill
tary tension. but on the other hand
we are certain to have a period of
intense economic competition.
German Payments Last,
In the second place the recent ac-
ceptance of the Dawes plan does con-
stitute the great liquidation of the
reparat1ons problem. Germany's ca
pacity to pay has been fixed not at
$i'5oo,0OO.00O annually as the Repara-
tons Commissions 1921 totals de-
manded, but at $500, ,00O. 900 under the
Dawes plan and conditions of pay
ment have been fixed that safeguard
German domestic economy.
We have still to see whether the
creditors will be able to absorb the
payments Germany is bound to make,
whether the British will permit the
payments to be made and whether
out of the new struggle we shall have,
first, an Auglo-German combination;
| second, a Franco-German combina-
tion. or third. combination of. all
| three, with Belgium included. which
would have very real significance
for the United States. From now
until the October meeting of the al
lies in Paris the campaigns Of the
several nations are bound to be
pushed with great energy, the discus
sion of the future to dominate Euro
pean comment. while the Paris con-
ference will be in sense only less
important than the recent London
conference.
One must preceive. finally, that the
discussions of the economic phase,
which we now enter, will place
strain upon Anglo-French friendship
at least as heavy as the debates over
the Ruhr and other details did during
the purely political phase. Moreover,
for both Herriot and Macdonald the
coming Paris conference will be Of
utmost importance, for Herriot is Ger
tain to fall if he does not obtain great
concessions in the matter of debt seal
ing down, while British opinion Is
rapidly. taking alarm over the pos
sible evils of the German recovery
under the Dawes plan and thus
growing more insistent upon the use
of the debt claims to reduce the
| amount of reparations.
Copyright, 1924, by the Mcclure Newspaper
Syndicate.l' -