San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-08-11
CREATING FLUCTUATIONS

. ne CnlleQ states department or AS-
riculture has announced that this years
production of American wheat will be
2S,000000 bushels less than the amount
it had predicted month previously.
This new estimate will of course. result
in higher prices, and the farmers will
be glad Of that.
But this turn of affairs exemDlifies
anew system of crop forecasting which
as whole is unwholesome. What has
been done in the case of wheat is al
most an exact duplicate of the process
whereby the price of cotton was first
depressed and then boosted" There
are some points of difference, but they
are not vital; they do pot save the De
partment of Agriculture from the charge
of disservice.
The price of cotton declined as a re-
suit of the governments report that the
total yield of this commodity would be
comparatively large That report was
issued before the cotton growers had
finished their planting. The experts"
based their estimate partly upon en-
creased acreage"
Recently these experts announced
reduced acreage generally, and poor
condition in Texas, particularly. 1t is
to be assumed that this report was bas-
ed upon actual information, as it was
issued after the beginning OF the har-
vesting season. However, the price soar
ed rapidly. There had been no genuine
Iy economic reason for the depression.
A few months ago the Department Of
Agriculture depressed the price Of Amer
lean wheat by announcing that Eu-
rope would not buy of us as much Of
this commodity as it had purchased last
year, because Europe was producing
more wheat of its own. The predicted
decrease in the European demand was
measured by the predicted increase III
the European supply-100,000,0 900 BUSH
els. This report, coupled with earlier
reports by the same experts" on the
condition of the American crop, forced
the price of wheat to such a low level
that the President of the United States
was urged to convene Congress in spe-
oial session to do something" for the
American wheat growers.
Just how ANYBODY could estimate with
any degree of accuracy what the Ell
fective European demand for American
wheat would be is puzzle which the
lay mind cannot solve. If our experts
can't accurately estimate crops right TN
der their noses, how can they estimate
crops in foreign countries? And I'M
less it be assumed that the predicted in
crease in the production OF European
countries would be sufficient to satisfy
their needs-an assumption for which
there is absolutely no warrant-the de
gree OF those countries effective dcmanc
for American wheat must necessarily de
pend Upon their purchasing power, Ye
the Department. of Agriculture did no
undertake to estimate the future pur
chasing power OF European countries.
Now, after much damage has bee
done by the eXtra-territorial exercise O
the departments "eXpertness," it is an
nounced that the production of Amer
can wheat will be 2S,000,0O0 bushels les
than the yield forecast month age
That amount is % per cent Of the pre-
dicted shortage in the European demand
Therefore, even if the "experts" were &C
curate in their estimate of both the Eu
ropean crop and the effect it would hav
upon the STABILITY of American whea