The daily star-mirror. (Moscow, Idaho) 1911-1939, 1923-06-08
| PREDICT WEATHER
YEAR IN ADVANCE
Bureau Making Strides in Long
Distance F0recaStinu.

: The pastor of the Fifth Baptist
, church will be able to announce on
Christmas eve what kind of weather
, the Sunday school will have for it's
picnic on the following Fourth Of
July, if the science of weather fore
casting continues to advance with the
leaps and bounds of the last few
years.
The meteorologists of the govern
ment have so far perfected their
science that they can forecast the
weather for longer and longer periods,
and it is regarded as well within
the realm of probability that they
ultimately can predict, with a fair
amount Of certainty, what the weather
will be on given day two, three, or
even five years in advance.
Too casual consideration might lead
one to think of the weather as rel
A rainy day may be an annoyance, or
a hot spell merely something to try the
temper; a cold snap in the winter
something to add TO the riches Of the
coal barons.
Weather Not to Be Shifted A.
The fact Is that weather has as pro-
/ found an effect on human affairs as
any other phenomenon Of life. By de-
termining climates, it guides the de-
velopment of races and establishes the
products Of the SOIL To say, tits q
nice day." is to take up one of the
most important subjects in the world
Weather forecasting is comparative
ly new science Prof Cleveland Able,
an American, was the first important
meteorological. Like all pioneers In sci
entific work, he was scoffed at Some
people thought forecasting the action
Of the elements to be irreligious.
When money comes into any equa-
ton more serious attention Is paid to
it. Professor Able interested Lloyd's,
the great British marine insurance es-
tablishment, in his work. He demon
strated to the satisfaction Of officials
Of that institution that he could fore
cast storms. His forecasts were first
used to assist Lloyd's In fixing rates Of
marine insurance on ships setting out
to sea- If Professor Able forecast fair !
W
The forecasts of storm shot the rate
up and sometimes saved the company
thousands. Later the learned profess
sor helped found the United States |
weather bureau. AS early as 1869 he !
inaugurated series Of weather re- /
ports for the Cincinnati Chamber Of (!
Commerce.
To many skeptics he became a sort
of national joke. His reports would
read, as many weather reports do to
this day: Probably rain" or probably
colder" From this he gained the
sebriquet "Old Probable" which stuck
to him for years. T,
Importance OF Knowing Ahead
Z. Professor Able was one of the first
scientists to understand the Importance
Of weather forecasting, but in recent I
years new Importance has been added
to the science by the development of \
longtime predictions. To forecast the
weather twelve or twenty-four hours In
advance is important; to forecast such
phenomena six months
,r year in advance becomes of tran
importance.
1t will be seen that If the cotton
planters Of the United States can know
low what the weather conditions Will
se for the next growing season. they Z
on he guided in their preparations for
PLANTING. filling and harvesting II the
otton exchange and the markets Of \
he world can know now what the Z
onditions of weather will be, they can y
auge the crop almost to a bale, and, y
y relating the new harvest to existing y
tocks and rate of consumption. they Z
an tell what the price should be now =
nd will be six months or year ahead a
he same is true of wheat, corn and y
Their crops; even of cattle and meat =
We stock generally. .
The commercial Importance Of this
recognizable instantly These long n
lnge forecasts would, in all probable 4
y, accomplish what parliaments have .
zen trying for years to do-that Is,
Ike the speculative element out Of 4
aiding In foodstuffs. y
If every one knows what the weather =
will be throughout the grow n
& season, and thereby can accurately q
dge the volume of the harvest, the u
mbling element Is eliminated. The =
arket, forecast months In advance. y
)uld be stabilized and the flurries. q
e ups and downs of price which
nkrupt dealers and often in the end =
ueeze high prices out OF the ultimate 4
nsumer. would be slight. If they did
t disappear altogether Id
Forecasts Rice Crcp.
Right now, an expert meteorologist =
$ made forecast which Indicates =
1t the rice crop of Japan will be Z
ort this year, and the Japanese deal
ana the government cnn take narr~- -