The Raymer enterprise., 1923-09-06

- ~ses~
'Over-production" is one Of the
favorite phrases that Is being dinned
into the farmers ears this time Of
year.
Cehtain people cry "over-pro-
iuction" for much the same reason
that certain foolish dry-goods clerk
once used the word cotton" to label
his woolen rugs. He thought 1t
would scare the moths.
Every fall this phrase "over-pro-
duction" is used to scare the farmer.
The idea seems to be that after the
farmer gets through reading about
the enormous crops in Australia and
Argentine and Canada, and hearing
about what q big over-production
there is In America. he ought to be
satisfied to get anything at all for
his crops.
But the queer thing about over
production is that you don't hear 20
much about 1t In the spring.
Where is the source of this "over-
production" talk, and how much
truth Is there In It? .
Take the reports we get from
Canada. for instance. Early in the
year report will be sent out saying
there are prospects for a good crop.
The market report Of that day will
probably say. Wheat dropped of to-
day. following optimistic news from
Canada"
The same thing happens regularly
during the season, on reports from
half q dozen countries besides the
United States. But how much Of
these reports were perhaps the main
cause for 25 per cent drop In our
wheat? Then came the real reports.
which show that rust and damp
weather has seriously cut Canada's
yield.
It is these random reports that are
the source Of the "over-production"
cry. How much can you believe In
them until the grain Ia actually har-
vested?
Here is the actual situation as re-
CARDS over-production today, from the
monthly figures on stocks held. In
elevators over the world:
On August LIST. 1919, there were
500 million bushels Of Surplus wheat
on hand in the world. That Ia enough
wheat to take care of Europe's needs
for six months. Last year the sur
plus had shrunk to 12l million
bushels. In other. words, for the
last four years the world has been
using more wheat than she has been
producing.
On June lst Of this year. the stocks
OF wheat were 207 million bushels.
which will mean that about ITO mil
lion bushels will be carried over to
the new crop. This surplus repre-
sents a three months supply Of grain.
and any less Of q surplus would be .
pretty slim margin Of safety. This
three months supply Of wheat is our
only insurance against famine.
There is no reason why mere
three months supply Of wheat should
be called "over-production". Remem-
ber that we didn't raise this surplus
in one year. and that for the past
four years the surplus has been
shrinking.
The forcing down Of grain prices
every fall on "over-production re-
ports Is one Of the chief arguments in
favor Of the cooperative marketing
plan.
Under the cooperative plan, the
surplus supply Of wheat still will be
in existence. but 1t yill not be on the
open market forcing down the price
Of new wheat that is offered for sale.
It will be kept OH the market till II
Is needed-not dumped.
"Over-production" talk ID usually
rumor. It is the farmers own fault
II he believes It. Why don't we ever
hear over-production rumors concern.
ing steel! When the farmer has con.
troll Of his crops these rumors will be
ineffective because he will be able
to gauge his sales to meet actual con.
ditions.
NEXT WEEK: Experiments In Co.
operation.
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