The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1923-06-29
EXPERTS
| DISAGREE ON
MARKET
AT Draw Different Conclusions
From the Steady Decline
Of Prices.
BY w. s. COUSINS.

d
Copyright, 1888 by cosmopolitan News
Service.)
NEW YORK, June 29.--Specula-
tive Wall Street Is q faithful OBJ
server OF all the times and sea-
sons
According to the price charts, the
bull market OF 1921. which started
In June Of that year, has not yer
been completed, in witness whereof
the statistical experts present an
elaborate network OF new and Old
lows, primary and secondary de-
clif1es, single and double bottoms.
new tops and duplicate highs. How
ever ineligible they may be to
their author, they leave the ordi-
nary student OF economics in such
a confused mental condition that he
is glad enough to rid himself of the
whole Tnechanisin. Just now the
chart experts are in sharp disagree
ment over present tendencies and
future possibilities in the stock mar
ket. which is'not difficult toeunder-
stand
The truth of the matter Is that In
the last twelve months the market
has made very little progress in
either direction. At the present
price level, average stock prices are
In the spring OF 1922. All Of the
buoya1t exuberance OF the fall Of
1922, the subsequent reaction ana
enthusiastic advance of January.
March, 1923, has been Cancelled by
the steady decline which has fol-
lowed an almost uninterrupted
course since the middle Of March.
Yet Business Is Good,
| Meanwhile, domestic trade ana
business have been hanging up the
best records in a decade, In many
cases the best in the history of the
country. It would be ridiculous to
compare present conditions with
those which prevailed in the latter
part Of 1921, when bank resources
were tied up in frozen loans, In
yentories were carried in unreason-
able volume at unreasonable prices,
corporations were burdened with
unwieldy bank loans, short.term
| cent, with often heavy premium
in addition, and deficits were being
shown by the countfy's leading
steel, copper and rubber, and manu-
featuring concerns of various kinds.
In the twelve-month period many
fstocks have fallen to lowest price
levels In q decade, while others have
recorded their best prices in over
twenty years. Trading has been In
smaller volume than in the two pre-
ceding bull markets, notwithstafid-
ing that the number of listed stocks
10 greater than at any time In the
history Of the exchange, since May,
1921, the governing committee has
passed $50 applications for listing.
making the total Of listed stocks
about $50. In the year to date the
volume Of transactions on the big
board has been about $50 ZOO, 900
shares, against 10000. 900 in the
same period last year, and 141,751,-
900 shares in 1919.
Investors Seek High Return.
It is significant that while invest
ment buying of preferred stocks can
rarely be accomplished on better
than a per cent basis investors
look for from 8 to 10 per cent on
common stocks. The higher yield
is to compensate them for possible
loss through reduction or passing OF
dividends. The 10 per cent rates
are naturally more in evidence at
the end of a long decline in prices.
and it is then that the outside bar
gain hunter makes his appearance.
Allowing for current yields on
money, and the covering Of dividend
required by current earnings, the
preferred stakeholder has little to
expect from his holdings. While
the common stockholder takes all
the risk involved, he is always on
deck when special favors are being
handed out