Perth Amboy evening news., 1923-12-28


ally known statistician, reviewed de-
velopments during the past year and
outlined the probable trends for
1924 in a special statement issued
( today.
"A year ago." says Mr.. Babson,
Y~"business was still improving rapid
~. Nearly everybody turned to the
hew calendar optimistically. The
boom which started in the early fall
Of 1922 was well under way and car
fled on to March of 1923. Then II
collapsed! Business fell off during
the summer and this past fall failed
70 come up to the expectations OF
those who looked for a continuation
OF the up-swing. As a result, the
business world is facing 1924 with a
confused mind. 1t is safe to say that
the majority OF business men today
are hoping for a boom year, but il
they are strictly honest with them
selves they must admit that they are
not very confident of seeing these
hopes realized.
MANY prominent men in industry
have prophesied great prosperity. AT
the same time, the numerous blocs
represented in the new congress are
evidence that certain sections of tie
country, at least, are not satisfied
with things as they are Many bust
ness men, If asked IL they are max
ing money, will shake their heads in
a disturbed way. Europe is still sick
and we cannot expect to proceed re-
gardless of conditions across the At
lantic.
"Then there is the psychology of
the presidential year. Does it mean
better business or worse business?
Some people contend that things are
always unsettled previous to a ma
tional election. Others point to the
fact that the administration will do
ell that 1t possibly can to help be-
| tween now and next November.
n ut has been proven statistically,
ID my satisfaction at least, that elec-
I@ffcns have very little effect on bust
{ ness one way or another, provided
both sides nominate good candidates.
The evidence shows rather that bust
ness has a decided effect upon the
elections. Whenever we have chosen
D. President during a period of bust
ness depression we have usually
changed parties. If the election has
fallen during a period of business
prosperity we have usually kept the
previous administration in office,
LIS Llltl6 HtIllGI 1OlluAiiVU 1NoAAJ
exists. We are in a period between
these two extremes.
Three Kinds of Business
cit seems to me that the things
to watch are in an entirely different
direction.
Business activity may be divided
into three zones or belts. "a An
Upper Zone, such as we were in dur
ing the war and postwar periods,
when everybody is optimistic, excit-
ed and extravagant. (2) A Lower
Zone, when the reverse is true, when
many are discouraged, and when a
readjustment such as we had in 1921
and 1922 Is taking place. CD A
Middle Zone, when conditions vary
from only fair to what Is called quite
satisfactory business. This third
zone is what we have been travers-
ing for the latter part of 1928 and
is the one in which we are today,
II Is these periods between abnormal
and depression, when things are
neither very bad o extremely &C
tive. that are healthiest4or the bust
ness world.
.Excessive prosperity, like very
hot weather, saps our vitality, in
0dl65 jul SuA ~ 0AAo 1%~
out Of all proportions to true values,
Such q period encourages specula-
ton rather than honest effort, and
I1psets our sense of value and the
true proportion of things. Again,
AIhe Inevitable and ensuing period OF
repression Is heart-breaking. 1t dis
> rourages men and wrecks businesses
Ehat have been a lifetime in the
building. Its costs are written not
bnly in dollars but in hunger, in
want, and in human suffering. In
b~usiness, as In weather, moderate
conditions are healthiest.
unfortunately, however, a large
nroportion of American business
men are happy only during a period
Of boom. They are like the individ-
bal. who can be comfortable only
when it is so degrees in the shade,
Most of the time they are unhappy.
II stands to reason that these bust
ness men, who insist that they mus
have rising commodity prices, and
speculative profits in order to dc
business and wake progress, cannot
have this con@ition to help them
much more then a quarter of the
lime. In this case, three-quarters o.
their business lives are spent in
Ka1LluK LOI ILLS pa LlSuidA ONoAAN5N
season In which they are ready to
operate. They are not contented
with business when it is in the Cen
trail Zone and are extremely I'M
happy during a depression.
"The entire business community
would be much better off if we COM
planned OF excessive booms as We
complain of severe d~epressions and
~ I'VE welcomed the moderate condi-
tions, which are neither so very bad
nor yet extremely good, as the pro.
per business weather. We ought to
have more Of this sort of condition
than any other. and the wise bust
ness man will set his plans to oper-
ate under these circumstances.
1924 Central Zone Year
"The facts indicate that we shall
have such a year during 1924, ever
though some OF it may be below
average, rather than above. 1906
and the early part of 1907 saw 3
boom and imitation. The panic Of
the latter year took us down into Z
period OF depression lasting through
the early part of 1908. Apart from
a portion of the years 1909 and 1910
we then enjoyed fairly good business
along this Central Zone until 1914.
"a depression in 1914 laid thl
foundation for a fairly average yea
- 4o4E ~-htok dovaIonad into 9