The Indianapolis times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1922-1965, 1923-09-03
BUSINESS DECLINE
NEARS END, SAYS
PROF ESSOR HANEY
Turning Point in Economic
Affairs Is at Hand, Bust
ness Expert Declares,
OUTLOOK IS IMPROVED
Present Indications Point to
Resumption of Forward
Movement,


CWritent for United Financial by
Dr. Lewis H. Haney, Director Of the
Bureau Of Business Research, New
York University
NEW YORK, Sept. 3.-The signs of
the trend Of business continue to be
mixed and subject to optimistic or pes
simistio Interpretation. according to
the feelings of the observer. My judg-
ment is that this mixed condition in
dicates that the bottom OF the recent
downswing IS near. that turning
poin is a hand. There is, however no
idication yet of very strong or pro
nounced upswing.
To begin with the price level, the
stock market and the interest rate all
indicate Improvement, or at least a
checking Of the downswing. The num-
Der of commodities showing advances
OF stability has further increased and
the Fisher index of prices registered
the first decided gain in a long while
After standing at the low of 1853 for
several weeks It advanced to 155 last
week.
This is Of great Importance for when
prices cease declining. buying will
pick up. Buyers usually hang back
as long as further declines are in pros
pect. Now It begins to look as though
most goods can be bought more
cheaply than will be the case during
the rest of 1923.
The new mail order catalogue Of a
large Chicago mail order house shows
advances Of from 10 to Is per cent in
most lines compared 10 spring prices,
though shoes are lower. Cotton goods
are UP. Iron and steel continue firm
and wheat, while not able to hold the
recent sharp upturn. will probably not
fall to the low level OF a few weeks
ago. Bradstreets index of 81 food ar.
ticles rose last week.
! While the stock market continues
/ TO be professional affair with little
participation by the public and small
volume OF trading. 1t has been moving
slowly upward since Aug. 4. On that
| date the average Of fifty stocks wa
| 77.3 while on Aug. 2S the avera &c
touched 81, a gain Of nearly five
points. The action Of the market sug.
! gests that this sensitive barometer in.
| dicates favorite outlook at present
and, unless unforeseen developments
occur, we may see a good recovery in
security values beginning after Labor
Day.
| The interest rate on commercial
paper has lately shown greater firm.
| ness, and a larger volume of-business
is at 81 per cent, which leads to the
| conclusion that the tide Of business is
ceasing to fall. Easy money tends ITO
encourage business.
Latest returns from the railways
are fairly satisfactory. While thew
show a probable decline in July net
as compared to June, there will be
a gain of at least 20 per cent over
July 1922. The large expenditures by
northwestern railroads for mainten.
anceof-way and equipment are largely
responsible for the failure to make a
better showing. Car loadings continue
to hold the very high level of recent
weeks.
| All these things are evidence of an
improved outlook for the future. On
the other hand, one should not over
look the uncertainties, or the exist
ence of the relatively low level OF
business. The Ruhr situation will not
be settled for months, but the outlook
is better than at any time since 1t be
came apparent last April, that there
would be long drawR-out struggle
The oil industry faces great diff
ficulties on account of the tremen
dous overproduction of crude oil and
gasoline. Copper exports are low and
the price of copper weak The large
recession in the cotton textile bust
ness and in building activity are am
pie evidences Of the decline. In JULY
the value Of building permits declined
and was only about so per cent Of
the March peak figure.
Dizziness Is reflected in last weeks
report from the Federal Reserve
banks, with its decrease in bills dis
counted and in note circulation. The
increase in the reserve ratio indicates
no great activity in business. The
same story is told by the bank clear.
ings and bank debts. The average
daily bank clearings In August will
| probably be smaller than those of a
year ago, with decided decrease at
such centers as New York and De-
troit. offsetting gains at Chicago and
Dallas. Average daily bank debts
during the week OF Aug. % declined
from the preceding week and was only
per cent over the same week last
year.
To sum up:
1t seems that signs of increasing
stability indicate that we are near the
bottom of 2 business decline which has
carried us back TO business level only
per cent over last year at this time.
Present indications are for good gains
this fall, which probably will carry
over into early 1924. It is still too
early for any one to say how long the