The Bozeman courier. (Bozeman, Mont.) 1919-1954, 1923-09-26
OPTIMISTIC.
FOR DEMOCRAT
IC DEPRESSION

Washington, Sep& 22.-"People
who are interested in the future of
American industry should find much
food for thought in a recent article
written by Sir Arthur Balfour and
published in the London Times" says
the Republican Publicity Associa-
bion, through it's president, Hon.
Jonathan Bourne, Jr. "In that arti-
Gle Sir Arthur discusses at length in
dustrial conditions in the United
States and the outlook for British
competition with America. He esti-
mates that there will be a fair in
teInal trade in the United States for
Is months, and after that a period of
depression for three or four years.
He also predicts a very considerable
modification of the Fordney tariff af-
ter the next election.
Eighteen months from the present
time would bring us up to April,
1925. Sir Arthur predicts that as a
result of the elections in 1924 there
will be a considerable modification of
the Fordney tariff act. The new
congress, which will be elected in
1924, will take office in March, 1925.
Balfour's opinion is that the next
congress will be democratic and that
by April, 1925, that congress will get
in its deadly work on the Fordney-
McCumber tariff law and that then
there will be "a period Of depression
for three or four years
at is quite impossible that a con-
gress elected in 1924 and taking Of
flee in March, 1925, could repeal the
republican tariff law by April, the
period of Is months. Perhaps Sir
Arthur had in mind the historical fact
that American industry begins to de-
cline with the assurance that adverse
conditions r approaching, and that
assurance would be given upon the
election of a low-tariff congress.
However, it is not worth while TO
discuss the question how Dol a dem
ocratic congress could make it's in
fluence felt. The important thing
to keep in uind is that Sir Arthur
Balfour makes practically simultan-
eous the coming of a democratic adj
ministration and the beginning of a
period of depression which, in his
opinion, would last three or four
Eyears. He is undoubtedly Judging the
future with the past. We have seen
on previous occasions that when a
democratic administration comes into
power and enacts a democratic tariff
law we have, under normal conditions.
a depression that lasts three or four
years, or until the people can re-
verse their action and restore an ad-
ministration that believes in the prin.
ciple of protection for American In
dustry.
"While it is easy to agree with Sr
Arthur Balfour that a considerable
modification of the Fordney tariff
would bring on "a period of depression
for three or four years, it is not cas-.
to agree with him that such a modi
J ifcation is to take place. The Ameri
can people can remember the effect
of the democratic tariff law of 1895
They can also remember that fol
lowing the enactment of the demo
: cratic tariff law in 1913 there was
, tremendous depression in America.
industry with millions of men out O
e employment. They remember tina
e the depression continued until Ser
d TENDER, 1914, when the war in Eu
rope cut off imports and furnishe
: us a new and unprecedented marke
for u products. With these fact
firm in the memories of America
voters there is no likelihood that in tn
i next election they will again vote til
r democratic party into power.
e "Sir Arthur Balfour is a success
S full British business man. PerhaI
his wish that British goods may fil
ure more in supplying the>Americs
! market is to some extent the fatht
" to his thought that such will be II
case. Our own Judgment is that hi
h tory will prove him to be a poor pm
phet of American politics"