Evening star., 1923-12-31

4 during modern
- times had been so
with an album
dance of cheap
MIR. M0ULS0N, cotton that, when
silk or wool, articles made from cot
ton hber have invariably met with
the attitude of "Oh, that is only cot
1on! Suddenly, housewives through
out the world are confronted with so
great an increase in the cost of all
cotton goods that the three commod-
1t1es are fast entering into active
competition with each other.
Cheap Cotton Passing.
The era of cheap cotton appears to
ne passing and until science dis
closes some method of exterminat-
ing the destructive boil weevil in
the United States expand their cul-
1iVation of the cotton plant the
question of an adequate supply of
goods at prices within the reach of
all will grow steadily more perplex-
ing.
Indications of this We're perceptible
last year when cotton advanced from
IL cents in 1921 to 81 cents at the
close of 1922. During the three
Years of 1875 crops of American
cotton averaged 14,6oO,OoO bales. The
last three Yields have averaged
about 100000 bales or an annual
increase of 100000 bales. Though
prices were high when the southern
planter began thinking about the
crop of 1928, the trade hoped for a
large yield this season to relieve
the situation.
The violent advance in values dur
ing the summer of 1922 had carried
both spots and futures steadily up
ward, until cotton in the various
markets of the country sold above
80 cents pound in the spring of
NINn sa,-I .
had lifted the level TO 311a cents on
the New York exchange about the
middle of March. So prevalent was
the anticipation of a large acreage
to buy freely and began to consume
stocks on hand pending the ma
turity and marketing of new cotton
from the growth of 1928. This ces-
prices and in about three months
decline of cents pound had oc-
Cured.
sharp Price Decline.
The fall in prices from March to
July this year is to be explained on
the general theory>of the function Of
all commodity markets to discount
the future. Working on the sup
position that much larger yield
than that of 1922 would have to be
purchased from the producer and
financed, operations ,. on the three
large contract exchanges were almost
entirely on the side of lower prices.
Following the action of the wheat
market, with it's decline from s1.25 to
below S1.0O a bushel in advance of
the harvest period, cotton went from
above 80 cents to almost 20 cents
pound. In the case of wheat, the proc
ess of dfscounting the future turned
out to be a correct forecast of later
Developments. But with cotton
everything went wrong, and the re-
view of the various reasons for and
results Of this misconception renders
the past season the most interesting
and remarkable in annals of the past
half century.
clear understanding of the past sea-
son is best obtained by simple divi-
sion into two definite parts, the one
concerning the crop failures and its
causes and the other general conse-
quences flowing therefrom.
According to the annual estimate of
the Department of Agriculture issued
December IL. the yield of lint cotton
for 1923 is 1o,os1 900 bales. This does
not include linters, which aggregated
over 100000 bales in last years crop.
Taking American and foreign
growths. the total worlds production
of cotton promises but little more
than last year, or several million
for both 1929 and 1923. 3. -
To say that this years cotton crop
is generally regarded as not much
larger than that of 1922 fails. to give
of events in recent years an adequate
picture of what happened. 1t is only
by going back. to the early spring
months and, the high hopes then
entertained that the real nature of
the calamity is disclosed.
Two Small Crops.
The two previous crops had proved
so small that the process Of with
drawing raw; mater ial me ccssary for
current needs from reserve stocks
had not only depleted the existing
supply, but had automatically en-
HANGED values. Thirty, cent cotton
meant large returns to the grower
and prospects of successful year
stimulated agricultural activity
throughout the cotton .beit. The
world needed cotton and at price
that would insure the producer one
of the largest returns ever received
Winter weather. has proved ex-
tremely favorable, throughout the
west belt particularly. Period of
kin off the boil weevil in Information,
while generous winter rainfall in all
sections provided ample subsoil
spring started early. 1t was NOT sur
prising that when March arrived ad-.
vices indicated the area to be planted
TO cotton this season would be limited
by physical restrictions solely and
the planter would put in every acre
possible in the cultivation of cotton.
Assured of market for all the cot
ton he could raise at a price that
would mean substantial profits for
his summers labor, prospects at that
time were. for the largest acreage
ever recorded.
The month of April was not half
over before it BECAME evident, that
all was not to be plain sailing.
Weather proved cold and wet. In
stead of promises of fine early
planting season, low temperatures
retarded operations and by. May the
average planter reRlized that he had
an uphill fight ahead. Fields lay for
days and weeks under water, not
only delaying SEEDING, but making
impossible the planting Of all the
land that had been planned for cot
ton. Hundreds of thousands of acres
were either never planted at all or
had to be abandoned because land
never dried out snfficiently to per-
init replanting awi tn any definite as
surance of maturing a crop. Weather
proved, unfaForable in Oklahoma,
Arkansas and Georgia particularly,
but effects were felt In Alabama,
mississippi Soutb Gsrolina, TeAnes-
see and E5u IF an q. The two 1ex cep-
49, SS5