Evening star., 1923-12-23
OUTLOOK FOR 1924
DECLARED BRIGHT
Tax Reduction Possibilities
Already Boom to Business,
Expert Announces.

Expert Announces.
Despite predictions to the contrary
there are certain favorable signs ap
pearing on the business horizon
which portend good business for the
year. says Frank Greene IL
his monthly survey of business con
ditions in the January number of the
Nations Business.
Mr.. Greene points out that las the
real proportions of the volume of TIL,
country's trade and industry in the
past year become more cler1y defined
and finally as the tumult and the
of the business prophets be
comes stilled while they busy them
selves in preparing their forecasts fol
the new year, 1T is beginning to bt
more clearly perceived what really
good year the country as a whole ha:
had in the past twelve months.
"As this has occurred in the fac'
of some gloomy predictions, from
April onward, there seems to be I
feeling growing in the public minc
that some OF the longer range predic
tions of poor business next year
mainly because it will be a preside n
tial year, may go astray just "a:
widely as did those for the latter pal
of 1923.
Tax Views Help Business.
"One of the favorable elements tina
will tend to help business during tn,
taken by Secretary Mellon and Presi
dent Coolidge on the subject of ta2
reduction, to which it is evident tn,
country has rallied without regard Il
political aftiliation.
"On the unfavorable side comins
early in the year might be ranged the
expected demand by the soft Goa
miners for further concessions.
may be that these demands will prov,
to be smoke screens designed to pro
tect the present scale of wages, bu
regarding this it might be said tina
the irresistible logic of costs is bring
ing about corrections"
In reviewing the business situation
during the past eleven months, Mr.
Greene says that ANY year that ha;
seen all records broken in the build
ing trades. in automobile manufac,
ture. in iron output. in. live stool
in railway volume. IL
value of transportation in genera
levels of wages and employment, ant
the weather aiding. probably sees ;
new high record set up in holida,
trade, cannot be regarded as just al
ordinary year.
Big Year for Railroads.
AS already intimated. the railroad
have done very well this year. Ca
last year and 9 per cent ahead of tn
record year. 1920. This is reflected
in the earnings. those for October
for instance. showing a gain in gros
receipts of Z per cent over Octobe
last: operating expenses increased b,
only 4 per cent and net operating in
come, which is what is left after al
expenses are paid. applica BILE for BON
or stock dividends, was 20.o per cen
better than last wear
The total net operating income 70
October, in fact, has only been eX
ceeded in three months in the las
seven years, and two of those month
We're in the war year 1918. Net oper
atinS income for ten months this yea
will run to 100000 an increas
of "a per cent over the last year. /
the gains for ten months in gross re
ceipts and net operating income ar
maintained for the year a total gros
on the class / railroads is indicate
of $500. .0000 900.
This is far in advance of anythin
previously noted, but applying the 3
per cent increase on net operating in
come over last year a total of onl
$1.013, 100000 is reached. This. @
course, is far better than last yea
but compares with the net operatin
income of s1,040.000,00O in 1916. whe
gross receipts were A per cent les.
In other words, the railroads hav
had to do nearly double the bushes
they did in 1915 to get less net reve
nue. than they did in that year.
Gain I'm Bank CIearinEs.
Eleven months bank clearings thi
year at III cities have totaled 1851
321. 100000, a gain Of per cent owe
last year. but a decrease of ST pc
cent from the peak year in prices an
clearings of 1920. New York cit
clearings have Jagged behind the res
Of the country, losing 20 per cen
from last year. whereas outside @
that center the gain Is 15.4 per cen
The movement of prices in Novem
Der, as indeed in the preceding thre
months, was evidence Of the bette
feeling which has shown itself sine
midsummer, although it also reflect
the influence of the immense Gro
damage Gone at the south, becaus
the advance in cotton and cotto
goods has been an important lever 1
lifting the level Of prices as a Who'll,
The December l price level was. i
fact. the highest since May ! thi
4.S per cent and the decrease fror
December l year ago was only 2.
per cent. From the low point of tn
depression Of 1920-21 reached on Jun
l, In the latter year, the present mum
Der makes a gain Of 26 per cent, bu
1t was 35.6 per cent below the hig
point of February /, 1920. though 81.
per cent above the pre-war level O
August l, 1914.
Among the large industries, thos
connected with fuel and light. sof
coal and petroleum were depressed 4
NnUanohar G
Soft coal production reached it's pea
in 1918, but output to date this yea
is only per cent below that peal
November prices were the lowest O
reported to have closed, these. prob
ably the most of them. the more ex
pensive. 'thin-seam propositions.
Turn in OH Production.
petroleum production definitel
turned downward in November, bu
is Is questionable whether this Wi
prevent a further gain in stocks o
crude now above ground, which hav
been increasing for two years. Gas
oline consumption has been enormou
at the lower prices quoted, and stock
have certainly decreased.
"The mild weather of Novembe
was favorable to the finishing up Q
would have been carried over unit
spring. Weather permitting, a grea
deal Of winter building Is going to b
done late this year and early in mex
October's new plans were the thir
largest in the country's history, an
November's total will show consid
cradle shrinkage from that, but tn
years aggregate at 176 leading citie
will not be far from 80, ,100.0O0.000,a q
amount greater by $500, 100000 tina
in the hitherto peak year 1922, no
far from double that Of 1921, an
seven times that of the war year 1911
while all signs point to 1924 bein
another big year.
Auto Production Doubled.
Automobile production has defle
all predictions, and tho estimate 70
the year, 100000 cars and truck:
will exceed that Of tho peak yea
1922 by nearly so per cent.
"As the man of the Nations Busi
naxs ShoUs one of the nnorlY stu