Evening star., 1923-04-22
BANKERS PREDICT
STABILITY AHEAD
Eote of Financial Caution
Favorable to Business
Over Long Period.
EASY MONEY BIG HELP
Foreign Bond Movements Held to
Reflect Brighter Out
look Abroad.
EASY MONEY BIG HELP
Bl GEORGE T.. III GHk.S.

BN GEORGE II. Hughes.
Special Dispatch to The Star
NEW YORK, April 2l.-Thefe Is
much to support the view advanced
in banking circles this week that Il
long period of comparative stability
is ahead. when the financial outlook
IS considered from long range. As
far as business is concerned. the i'm :
pressiva feature is the note of eau
ton and conservatism so ctten
heard Just now and apparently being
needed
advances very slowly and carefully.
even when rising costs fully warrant
the advance. There is Ii wholesome
fear OF So-called buyers strike and
d disposition to slew down rather
than to incur the danger of check =
ing demand of consumers. There are.
of course. exceptions in certain trades
and certain commodities, but the rule
holds good.
Money Rates Favorable.
The same condition. obtains in the
money market Rates fuGtuate over
very small range. Notwithstand- :
ing the demands of expanding trade,
the credit situation is Favorable in
the extreme. OF course this il i'll
iarge part due to the abrormally
heavy gold holdings. but this does
not alter the fact.
As long as the gold is here it must
ne reckoned with and including com
and bullion. gold stocks in the United
states established a new record on
Ss-t at nearly si.000.o0o goo. The
compa-~ -ith S3.I50.61l.j39 on April
l. 1872. Moreover. predictions of a
turn in the tide have not been verI-
ned; nor ~ there anv signs OF any
such change. In fact. March gold
imports Increased about 5000. 600
over tho preceding months. Such
small changes as occur in the condi-
tion OF the federal reserve banks are
without significance. The reserve
tatio continues high and rsdiscounts
low.
Probably the investment markets
reflect the subcCnscious realization OF
these factors making for stability.
At any rate the reaction in the bond
market seems to Eave been check ed
and long term. high grade securities
arc no longer without investment
and speculative support.
Less Selling in Bonds.
This Is not to say that any sub
stantial advance in bond quotations
- likely. but merely that the selling
practically ceased. The factors in
1tuercing bond prices now are the
competition from new offerings and
the needs of the government in re-
financing the maturing victory loan.
Speculation likewise halts and
he>Itates. neither bears nor bulls
heing. at all sure OF their ground.
The former make much OF the fact
commodities have had such very
large advances over their 1921 lows.
tile latter still stress the excellent
business outlook. The net result is
very small and neither side can point
f,0sition.
Turning TO affairs abroad. feeling z
mis- week is decidedly more cheer
i'e reached between France and Ger
many grows stronger. So many
:ataStrophieS have been predicted for
Eul ope and things European that
have never happened, that now there
fs q. disposition to believe they may
never happen at all.
Foreign Bonds Higher.
This turn in affairs has shown best
n the quotations for foreign govern
tnent bonds which have been higher
this week than in many months.
Ihere is reason to believe also tha t
-he buying OF these securities has
come mostly from genuine individual
!nTt stcrS rather than from traders or
dealers. 1t is also reasona Bile to sup
pose that the concensus Of world
opinion. for some of this buying has
come from abroad. represents a. re-
liable forecast of better days on the
other side just as the slow recovery
or the stock market after a long
period of depression forecasts trade
revival
1t is noteworthy also that the for
eign bond market has moved inde-
pendently OF the rates for certain eX-
change, which are generally promptly
affected by changing political con-
ditlonS, but where both the technical
speculative position and the legiti-
mate commercial situation obscure
the meaning of fuctuating quota :
tions. Investors who are now ac-
cumulating foreign securities seem
to be acting simply on their belief
that interest and principal are rea-
sonably safe and that. considering
the high return, the risk is very
small.
Gary's Views Opposed.
Returning to the situation at home
there is more raising of wages. more
talk of labor shortage and continued
discussion of the immi igration prob
lem. Judge Gary's views that the
present law is a mistake do not seem
to be generally shared by those in
a position most to influence the new
Congress.
For strange as it may appear the
Agricultural interests are against let
ting down the bars The argum ent
that allowing free entrance to all
foreigners who desire to come help
solve the farm labor problem does
not impress the farmer. His reply is
that the type of immigrant who has
been coming during the past decade
did not settle on the farms. but in
tho great cities and as far as bring
ing down wages is concerned. it must
not be forgotten that the farmer is
both laborer and employer.
The labor unions are even more
strongly opposed to any change il
the present law, so that it looks a:
though manufacturers will have t,
solve their own problem as far as tn,
labor supply is concerned under pre-
vailing conditions.