San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-10-28
No GENERAL
WEAKNESS On
STOCK MARKET.
Principal Price Movements,
However, Have Been
Downward.
BUSINESS is GOOD
Security Markets Make No
Response to Large VOL
ume of Trade.
By STUART +. WEST.

BY STUART p. WC5T.
Copyright. by The San Antonio Light.
New York. Oct. 2..-The end OF an
other week finds financial opinion in
much the same muddled state in which
it has been for the last month.
Heads OF big business concerns re-
main optimistic as ia the future. The
recognized data. such as railway car
loadings. the sales of the large retail
organizations and commercial bank
clcarings. indicate an unusually large
volume Of trade.
Yet the security markets fail 10 re-
spond. If there has been no general
weakness. the principal price move
ments certainly have been downward.
1t is no wonder that the public should
be mystified by this contradictory evil
dcncc. and that business men should
stick to their policy of not buying be-
yond their immediate needs.
Selective Stocks Decline.
The Wall street movement has as
suned a more logical character than
it had a month ago. Then prices were
being driven down indiscrminately. in
obedience to a blind and unreasoning
pessimism. Now process OF selection
is apparent. The security markets are
Distinguishing between the favorable |
and unfavorable in particular indus
tries. Stocks representing strong |
earning power and dividends which |
are reasonably assured have been show
ing more resistance. The losses which |
have occurred in individual groups, |
may have exaggerated the facts in |
some instances. but for the most part |
they are explainable on the ground of
conditions known TO be unsatisfactory |
or improbable in their special lines
of trade.
Business Situation Confused.
II is still impossible to define the
business situation as a whole. Ii has
to be separated in units and discussed |
from the individual points of view.
Some industries have been hard hit by |
the rise in wages and in other items of |
operating costs. Others have been able |
10 pass on these increases to the con- |
sumer through price advances. In |
some directions there has been over |
production and consequently severe |
competition. In Others-and this
seems TO be true Of the ma jority-out-
put has kept within the bounds OF in
coming orders. The argument of
dwindling or exhausted profit mar
gins can fairly be used against certain
basic industries. but il is very far from
applying 10 the situation in general.
improved Demand for Steel.
The demand for steel has been better
in October than it was in September
il has increased sufficiently to tu.n
the balance in some departments from
excess output to excess new business
while in other departments it has not.
Production Of crude oil continues to
stand around lis maximum and to run
somewhat ahead of demand.
The position as shown in the quar-
terly reports Of the leather companies
j very unfavorable and the shoe T ,nu-
factUrcr Sarc suffering from the ex-
travagant Outturn Of last spring.
Under the flood C. low-cost South
American copper, prices continue to
sag. and here. too. there j; an adverse
relation between supply and demand.
Tire prices are the lowest on record
and the outlook in the textile trades is
uncertain.
Retail Business Good.
All this has been reflected on the
stock exchange in further downward
readjustment in stocks of companies
engaged in these lines. On the other
hand. retail business. as represented
by the chain stores. the department
stores. the mail order concerns and the
tobacco dealers. is excellent. and this
has been duly appreciated in te recent
operations. The market seems likely
to continue in this discriminating way
until each Individual trade situation
has been properly measured
There is no disposition yet to dis
count the outlook for 1924. The pre-
liminary impression is that with credit
abundant and no serious accumulation
of goods on hand. the fundamentals are
sound. But repetition of last springs
Short-lived trade boom is not looked
for. Where operating charges have
been eating into profits to a discour-
aging extent. producers are likely TO
attempt wage cutting. But this is a
crisis which will not have to be faced |
in many industries.
Easy TO Over-rate French Acceptance.
Renewal Of the American offer to
participate in q PREPARATIONS conference |
and the acceptance of this Offer by |
France. are stems in the direction of |
solving EurOpe's economic troubles !
But their Importance for the more i'm |
mediate outlook may easily be over |
rated. The unanimous Judgment of |
the world. apart from France and Bel |
GUM. is that Germany cannot nay as |
things now stand and that it will O...y |
be after a long and tedious recupera-
ton that collections on the indemnity !
account will be possible.
In the meantime the French budget |
has CHARGED up as recoverable from |
Germany" seventeen billion francs OK |
pended on the devastated regions last |
"a. It is expected n make a similar |
charge this year. Tn huge sums |
are being taken up by French investors
in the form OF short term internal |
loans. So far the flotation of these
loans has not been difficult.
These bond issues were Successful. |
however. because of the supreme con-
fidenee Of the French people in the !
policy of securing reparations pay
ments by force. After an impartiaI
investigation it appears that Germany
must be granted a long moratorium
and that. in the end. the original war
bills must be sealed down enormously.
in such a case will the small French
capitalists show the same willingness
that they have hitherto 10 add TO their
afraadv ~rpat lond NJ ~ovorunaopt ohi;