Evening star., 1923-07-29
WHEAT MARKET ALARM
LESSENED BY ANALYSIS
Business Still Sound at Bottom and Fear
Is Declared Based Largely on
UnfOuided RumOr.

production of wheat in the United
States. with a purpose of endeavoring
to arrive at some means of putting
production on a sound basis. 1t will
try to get a true cost of producing
wheat in different areas. Recommen-
dations are expected to be made for
1924 and succeeding years to prevent
a recurrence of the difficulties of
wheat growers.
Economists I'm Conference.
In the meantime the Department of
Agriculture had called number OF
economists into conference here, and
following the announcement of their
findings a number of alarmist stories
were given wide circulation all over
the country, which fed the flames of
alarm and kept industrial leaders
and the general public on the anxious
seat.
| Carefully studied. however, the re-
port of this advisory council is op-
timistic and encouraging rather than
alarming. 1t shows that the wheat
crop will be about S21. 100000 bushels
in this country, as against S62,000,000
| last year, a falling off of 100000
bushels. The pre-war production was
690.000,000 bushels. It shows that
Canada, contrary to reports, cannot
have large increase in wheat pro-
duction, and will probably have Il
much smaller crop than last year.
1t Is shown that the total acreage
in wheat in eleven countries OF Eu-
rope. exclusive of Russia, that gave So
shows about 100000 acres increase
and a total production of 11S.00O.00o
bushels. while last years crop was
200.000,000 bushels below the previous
year. Argentina and Australia show
decrease of about 100000 bush
els. The best available figures on
Russia's wheat crop shows that only
about one-half the pre-war acreage
is planted, while the population to be
fed from it is about two-thirds the
pre-war total. So that 1t seems
pretty certain that Russia will not
export grain in large quantities to
Europe or anywhere else in the i'm
mediate future.
Caused by Fear.
So 1t all boils down to fear that
we would be without a market for
some 200,0oo.o0o bushels of wheat
and the necessity which forced a GER
tain percentage of wheat growers TO
throw their crop Immediately on the
! market has caused all of this gen
| eral fear and trembling for an indus
| trial calamity and general hard times
| and high prices.
| Even IL there should develop a real
| disability for wheat farmers. 1t would
| not mean a national disaster.
There is the large so-cailed "dry
farming area" formerly known as
the great American desert" This
is highly speculative area. or bonus
land, on the outer rim of farm pro
duction Here wheat crop is big
gamble. If they hit a big crop In a
year of high prices, it carries them
over three or four years of crop
failures.
Statistics show that a bushel of
wheat is brought to the harvest with
an expenditure of about ten minutes
of human labor. but even double of
| that for sake of argument In this
dry-farming area, where only one
| crop is produced. 1t will be seen that
the farmer must make 100 per cent
/ of his family upkeep out of such II
small proportion of his time. Con
trast this with 100 per cent of his
| time being used for profitable pro-
duction By farmers in other states
where wheat growing is incidental
and other crops are grown in rota-
| tion.
Growing Speculative.
Mr.. Barnes figures that in these
more secure areas of production even
! 81 wheat In Chicago can return
profit to the grower. He argues that
| in the one-crop dryfarming region,
not suited for diversification, the
growing of wheat is speculative and
not occupational. One of the RENE
dies that must be found is how these
speculative wheat growers can be
given more steady employment.
Statistics are found to show that
wheat furnishes only little more
than 5 per cent of the annual farm
production, only about $1,000, 900 out
Of s14,0oo.oo0.
When all the facts are on the ,aple
and here only fashlight glimpses
of them are given. without the nitric
acies of miraid details and compli-
Gated statistics-it appears to those
| who have been following wheat pro-
duction and marketing for many years
| that the situation confronting the
American people is not as bad as
propagandists would make 1t appear.
There Is to be no industrial or
|
even IL the supply is greater than
| the demand and conditions abroad
make a short market for exports.