Evening star., 1923-08-11
BUSINESS OUTLOOK
M|XEDAT WEEKEND
Financiers, However, NJ
Longer Pessimistic-Too
Early for Fall Forecast.
BY STUART p. WEST.

BY STUART p. WEST.
Special Dispatch to The Star
NEW YORK, August 1.-THE busi-
ness outlook is still a good deal mixed
at the close of another week. but the
financial markets have got rid of the
exaggerated uneasiness and pessi-
mism which characterized them a
month ago.
In the first week of July the de-
cline in stocks was checked because
prices had reached a level which was
sufficiently attractive to buyers. At
the same level the secondary decline
was stopped in the first few days of
August. The ordinary reading of this
experience would be that there are
definite points of support in the pres
ent market. or, to put ii another way,
there is a certain price range at
which people of substance believe the
risks and uncertainties of the outside
situation have been sufficiently dis
counted.
Not Ready for Forecast.
The time has not yet come when it
is possible to forecast the conditions
OF the autumn trade. But nothing
mas happened to discourage the view
that the business volume during the
latter part of the year will be salts
factory. even although in most lines
II promises only moderate profits. De-
spite the heavy shrinkage in untitled
orders reported by the Steel Corpora
tion, Ii is a fact that new business
has been picking up during the last
fortnight: Steel men predict that or
GERS VIII have caught up with pro-
auction in the course of another
month. Meanwhile, steel prices are
holding firm, there have been very
rev cancellations and equally few in
stances where mill representatives
toners. In other words, features or
dlnarlly present at time of ap-
preaching depression are not present
now In the steel trade.
Better Agricultural Conditions.
But SO far as the state of agricul-
ture is concerned. matters have
frightened decidedly. The decline in
prices at one time during the week
were up over 3 cents a pound This
means a great deal for the much dis
cussed farmers buying power"
wall street was in the blues last
month over the 6-cent-a- -bushel dror
In wheat how 1t would inevitably
curtal purchases in the agricultural
states OF the west and how this would
react upon the entire business situa-
ton AS matter fact. the rebound
In cotton is quite as important an in.
fuence in the farm outlook as was
last months fall in wheat. The sudden
turn in cotton prices has revealed that
the partial slump in the New England
cotton goods trade was exaggerated
II was not due TO overproduction. bu;
to the mill owners holding off in ex-
pectation that the raw material would
go still lower. When raw cotton
started upward the goods trade a.
once got busy again.
Crude OIL Production Drops.
A favorable development in another
direction has been the falling off fol
the first time in the production anG
Importation OF crude oil. 1t may be
too early to conclude that the decline
in prices. plus the restrictions imposed
by the refners. have made themselve.
felt in a definite turn. But the feeline
is that if the peak of oil production
has not quite been reached, IL Is a.
least close at hand.
The leather industry, as indicated BY
the latest quarterly reports. is ir
prospect OF the copper trade becom.
ing more active unless something
favorable happens abroad On the
other hand, the decline in pig iror
has been checked, and SO has the
decline in sugar.
While from this examination in de
uneven. 1t certainly is better than il
was month ago. The American
Railway Association has reported
that the haul of merchandise and
manufactured goods, as well as OF
grain and coal. was larger in the
third week of July than in the Sec
ond. and larger in the fourth week
than In the third. II has also re.
ported that the fourth week broke
all records in the history of the coun.
try. Railway traffic and railway
gross earnings are very sensitive tc
these business changes and the fact
that they have not gone down, but
on the contrary have been steadily
! mounting. is altogether the most sig.
nificant feature of the present situa-
ton.
Crash Of German Paper Mark.
Passing to European affairs. there
J Is certain amount of reinsurance OF
negative sort regarding Germany
The mark. which ten days ago was
selling on a basis of a million to the
dollar. has been quoted as low al
six and a half millions to the dollar
Certainly this was crash of suffi-
cient violence to bring about the gen.
eral collapse" of which many have
long been talking. The reason why
no catastrophe has occurred is SIM
ply lnat tne German people long have
recognized that the mark was worth
less, and have governed their trans.
actions accordingly. All trading with
other nations has been done in gold
and much of German home business
is being conducted with the dollar as
unit. Where paper marks have beer
used for purchase of goods or pay.
ment of labor. the arrangement has
been that prices and wages have beer
carefully apportioned to fluctuations
After this last weeks further terrific
shrinkage, 1t is doubtful If the paper
currency will be used much at all.
French Frnnes at New Low.
Meanwhile, there are no signs that
the German attitude on the Ruhr is
weakening. One of the main pur-
poses of the proposed internal gold
loans is to sustain the policy of pas
sive resistance. Even tho optimism
officially professed by France is nc
longer making an impression. The
international money markets have
been asking with greater insistence
finances with indemnity collections
VIRTUALLY nil, for France is not getting
enough coal out of the Ruhr to pay
even the expenses of the army of oc-
cupation. And the answer to this
question has appeared in the steady
slipping of the franc below the low
Test for all time.
Under the budget adopted July l.
there was a deficit in ordinary reve-
nues of the French government OF