Evening star., 1923-12-29
OIL MEN WATCHING
'O' CALIFORNIA FLOW
-r,,a9
Outlook for 1924 Depends
Largely on Conditions in
Far.Western Fields.
BY j. G. ROYLE.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

special Dispatch TO The Star.
NEW YORK, December 29.-As a
result of the increases in the prices
for crude oil put into effect this
week in various sections of the
country, the industry is watching
California and the thermometer and
holding its breath. The outlook un-
doubtedly has frightened for the
petroleum producers, but many be-
!ieve that the course of prices in the
next few months will be dependent
largely on the condition Of affairs
in the California fields
The advance in prices has followed
directly on the heels of the reduction
iii flush production in the Powell
held of Texas and the Huntington
Beach, Long Beach and Santa Fe
springs fields of California. The
neak of production in the Powell dis
trict was reached in November. when
$4,000 barrels a day was coming
from the wells. This has now fallen
and many wells are under pump.
The total California oil production
Tor 1928 will be approximately 262,-
OlS.1l1 barrels, or an average of 720,-
900 barrels daily for the entire year.
This statement is based on actual pro-
ductton for the first fifty-one weeks
of the year, with 5,O47,113 barrels al
lowed for the final week. Daily pro-
duction, however, has declined from
$4,000 barrels in August by 1875 per
cent, and most of this decline has
been noted in the three flush south
ern California fieldS,t
The reduction in the output from
these four great flush fields is re-
Earded as a most favorable factor for
higher prices, according to men in the
traoe, but 1t is pointed out that this
reduction in supplies may not con-
tinue; 1t is an unquestioned fact that
the low oil prices which have OBJ
famed for some months have restrict
ed new drilling operations. There is
little doubt that more oil would be
Forthcoming If higher prices stimulat-
I'd completion of new wells.
rms Is true of other sections as
Well as California and Texas In
the great Oklahoma fields, organized
restriction has been in operation. The
inidcontinent production and the
Pennsylvania output have been held
down: Many producers in California
outside the flush fields have kept
their oil under ground when they
might have brought it to the surface.
Production Decreasing.
The total daily production of this
country now IS down nearly to
100000 barrels or over 275,000 bar
reis daily from the high point of the
assurance that it will stay there.
That is why the eyes of the oil world
are fixed on California The, new
Torrance -Redondo field has reached
a production of 10000 a day and if
the three big southern California
pools reverse their recent falling off
n output, surplus stocks may con-
tinue to pile up despite the promised
increase In consumption
The consumption of California oil
during the year. with portion of the
december consumption estimated, will
amount to 235,711,231 barrels, leav-
ing a total surplus of California oil
OF 2O,959,050 barrels.
Weather Big Factor.
The weather will have a very de-
cided effect on consumption in the
next few months. 1t is estimated that
there Will be nearly 30 per cent more
motor vehicles in operation in the
early part of 1924 than the first part
OF this year. If the season is an open
one, the consumption of gasoline Will
be large. If the winter is long con-
tinued, surplus stocks will continue
10 increase.
1t is true that present production
for the country is only about 81 per
cent higher than at this time last
year, and that consumption proba bly,
has increased to an equal extent, but
there are now surplus stocks in stor-
age sufficient for at least six months
consumption.