The Caldwell tribune. [volume] (Caldwell, Idaho Territory [Idaho]) 1883-1928, 1923-01-16
UNIVERSITY MAN
THINKS HIGHER.
PRICES COMING
Economist Believes Cy-
Gle Is Rounding Out to
Point Where Farm
Quotations Going Up.

+
Higher farm prices are IN prospect. d
the opinion OF Prof II C. Dale. hca'
OF the university department Of eco
Monies.
the year i922-25. "-Teiaoinshrdiunupl
Where are wc now. al the turn Of
current issue Of the Idaho Economic
Bulletin after explaining his theory
Of the cycle Of business depression
and recovery. Having described each
stage OF the process. he says: Need
less 10 say. the stages are not mutually
exclusive. that Is. We do not ilnsh
one period before entering the next.
They overlap. II appears that we are
passing through the stations marked
Higher Raw Materials building Ac-
tive. and Better Retail Prices. and
TO continue the metaphor. that the
blocks are open and We are almost To-
the yard limits OF the division point
called Higher Farm Prices"
The next station after Higher
Farm Prices" is Market Tor LuxuT-
les" and then comes "Overprodrc
fion."
Following is Professor Dale's de-
scripiion OF the selling cycle
Overproduetion First.
We start with oyerproduciion. Tor
it is IN excess OF economic goods that
the extreme optimism characteristic !
OF the peak OF prosperity frequently /
manifcsts itself. One OF the hrst signs |
OF trouble is found in the market ioF |
Injuries. One OF the biggest manu-
facturers OF cotton cloth in New Eng |
land shut down his mill in the sum
mer OF 1920. though he had sufficient
orders to run him over a year, large
~ because he had observed a striking |
drop in the price Of raw silk early
that summer Now silk is an article
entering largely IN the manufacture OF
Injuries and II Is luxuries that people
quit buyine first When hard times APP
pear SO the merchant or seller inds
these lines amone the first 70 feel the
trouble.
Next appears a general curtail-
nent OF manufacturing Not only the
concerns engaged in producing lux
lrIes, bur all manufacturing enterpris-
5 begin to slacken. Buyers have a
,verboughi and cancellation OF or 5
lers begins TO pour in. The story is
old OF an eastern manufacturer who
a friend who thought he
vas looking little oil color that he a
sas suffering from 'cancelitis.- all Iii
Is customers were cancelling their =
riders.
Farmer Gets Hit. I,
Then the farmer feels II. Md he
els il hard. Ills productive processes
re- not SUBJECT to the same degree OF o
onirol and regulation as are those OF G.
ie manufacturing concern. His Is Id,
X months. nine months, even a year :,
= three years. proposition. He too. -
Is tended TO overprOduce and VOW ST
u only does he suffer from that TACT,
Il also from the decline in raanuiac-
ring which has lesSeneG the pur- nv
asing power OF labor Businesses IN
al have large farm trade. mail-or-
r houses Tor example. are hard hit
consequence So - the local mcr
ant and banker
Real estate and building activity mn
op next The building material and eri
use furnishing lines suffer at this
&c. The hardware business feels :"
pinch acutcly pc
The retail sales in general fall off. we
siness Is reaching the trough OF the lee
We. PcSsimism prevails Statesmen
mechanis alige are skcpiical of -
overy. Bank and business failures bal
liiply. We are in the doldrums. Sat
raw materials drop wheat hay. tim
res, ~ ,,.n, ~ MUS ""''' anu the
Upward Turn Comes
but the seeds OF regeneration are =
be found IN this very condition.
prevalent depression accompanied teal
the psychology OF pessimism mas wei
TO underproduction There is s..
tive shortage IN many lines which
5 TO stimulate cautious rcsnmp- .o"'
OF manufacturing. But this IN Mel
reveals shortage OF raw ma OF
us which sends the price OF such viii
is upward. At the present writ -
lead IS quoted at 7 and ian
nan cents; year ago il half
~ cents. Hay in south Mar
10 IS selling a 500 in the stack 60.
ar ago II was alleged to be $500 10 "
XII precious little was even sold ina
iat figure cons
he resumption OF building activity Men
Tvs and with il better outlook sho.
mouse furnishing. building ma '"0'
and hardware lines. Entail bhsi-
m general begins % feel the inn
ement Leaving on, OF considera. G,
the Christmas trade. we find. Tor -.
iple. that the four largest retail uPpe
5 IN salt Lake CIV - 0c,ohar baSl<
made net sales lo7 per cent IN gym
IS OF October, 1921. while their Iim;r
5 OF goods actually decreased "a -.
ent under October. 1921 another CONF
nee OF undcrproduction and rs the S
'quences. ln Spokane retail actus
October, 1922 were 24s per the ,
above October. 1921. while Inc
5 OF goods showed an increase 70 ~
~ Z percent
Farm Prices Nex. x,
blowing the improvement in
featuring. the higher prices IN VINO
aw materials markets and PRO. pract
< sections following also the Cald,
'vemeni 10 building and allied an n.
and the picking up OF the re- -
usiness comes inevitably 4 lev. same
upward - farm prices and 4 teach
I improvement, in the standard obser
ing which spells inevitably a SCENTS