Evening star., 1923-11-03
Babson Sees Good Prospects
For Copper Stocks in Future
Economist Urges Care During Present
Observation-Disclosures Both Com
modify and Securities.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star
WELLESLEY HILLS. Mass No
Vember' S.-Copper securities at Il
new low for the year, reached dur
ing the last two weeks. have stirred
the interest of the investor.
The copper industry has for some
time been rolling in the doldrums of
low prices and depressed market con-
ditions. From August. 1921, through
cut 1922. and into the first quarter of
this year. prices moved steadily up
ward. In March a temporary reac-
ticn set in, and during the past seven
, months the trend has been markedly
downward. Present quotations are
.on a par with those Of the early part
of 1922
Apparent domestic consumption
since the low points of 1921 has con-
tlnued in an uninterrupted rise. About
700.000.000 pounds were consumed by
domestic manufacturers during 1921.
1,lO0,OO0.OO0 pounds during 1922, and
an estimate for the present calendar
year places the amount in excess Of
,40O,00O,O00, figure closely approx
mating that of maximum war activ-
ity during 1918.
Exports on Increase.
The export situation is compare
lively good and improving. Export
figures have risen steadily from 50+,-
100000 for the fiscal year ending
June. 1921. to an amount that wi
probably exceed 750.000.000 pounds
for the present calendar year. This
hgure is in excess of any previous to
1912, and closely approximates the
years Immediately preceding the war.
During the past seven months there
has been no appreciable decline in
manufacturing activity. Actual do
mestiC consumption has had only a
slight recession. Exports have held
we'll The basic reason for the pres
ent low market is found in the clean
ing up of stocks of raw materials
held by manufacturers.
The accumulation of such stocks in
evitably accompanies period of in
tense activity, such as the mills eX-
perienced last spring, for it then be-
comes necessary to keep larger
supply on hand to insure uninter-
rupted operation. With these "greaS-
ing gthemachinery' stocks now re-
duced to about normal fabricatorS
must enter the market to cover new
orders for copper and brass products.
This basic reason for the present low
point is in itself a strong argument
for heavier purchases and consequent
higher prices.
Buying Movement Seen.
All indications point to the fact
that the stage is being set for a long
awaited puSlnE movement.
every appreciably upward turn in
prices has been directly preceded by
an abrupt drop in shipments from
the refineries to domestic mills. In
September domestic deliveries were
only 93.o00,000 pounds. the lowest
since early in 1922, and more than
3O,O00,00O pounds below the average
point for the first eight months of
this year.
Copper buying has always come in
waves. Psychology enters the mar
ket in a persistent tendency to fol-
low the crowd, and is often the de-
Gliding factor in the direction and eX-
tent of a price movement. Another
indication OF approaching strength
is the length and extent of the de-
clining market: Since the latter part
of March there has been no halt in
the fall of copper prices. A study of
market fluctuations for the past fif-
teen years shows that SIX months is
the maximum limit of a continued
price trend.
For the time being these factors
will presumably have more weight