Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1923-07-20
CURRENT BUSINESS CONDITIONS
E.
tn for July Issued by City of New York;
BY GEORGE E. ROBERTS

number presented a diagram based
upon Bradstreet's figures for building
permits issued in 1853 cities in each
year from and including 1917, with
allowance for price changes, season.
al fluctuations and year to yea,
growth, the purpose being to bring
the result into comparison with pre-
war building and determine the re.
lation of recent operations to normal
normal being taken to mean the
amount Of building which might be
anticipated if construction kept pace
with population. BY the courtesy OF
the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York we have reproduced the diagram
with this article.
Conclusions as to the Business
Outlook.
The general conclusion from the
foregoing survey would seem to be
that actual construction work will
go on at least through the present
year at about the capacity of the
industry, and that employment in the
principal industries will be maintained
about as at present. If SO, it will
mean a resumption of buying and
good Fall trade. If the latter is rea.
lized, the present slump will have dis.
appeared and the scene of our an.
prehensions will have been moved
ahead to next year. r. e,aaaass:ss-ss.s>,
In valuing the apprehensions which
are manifested in some quarters about
the present situation it should ba con.
sidered that neither the price level
nor the credit situation is anything
like what it was in 1920. No such
price recessions as occurred then
could occur again, even if we should
go into industrial depression, and 1T
follows that there could be no such
losses. There is no state of credit
extension or stringency to cause pres
sure for the contraction of business OF
the sacrifice of assets. There are no
such drastic readjustments to be
made as were made then, and no pos
sibility of such a shock to confidence
as in 1920. There is no occasion as in
other periods of prosperity to stop for
the purpose Of catching up with prem
allure development; there are no stocks
of goods to be worked off before more
are needed. Here is a nation of
100000 people with daily wants to
be supplied, and with industries now
fairly well adjusted to world condi-
lions. In no respect are the condi-
lions parallel to those of 1920 and
1921. The entire situation was new
and strange then. Nobody knew what
might happen to Europe or what the
effects might be here. It was all a
guess as to how low prices might 60
and who would be solvent. The whole
world has gone a. long way toward
finding itself since then.
The business sky is seldom entirely
clear of clouds, and the rise of indus
trial costs which started last Spring
and is still in progress is unfavorable
to permanent prosperity. The appre-
tensions which have been aroused
have served a good purpose in check.
ing the pace that was developing. The
wage advances that are being demand.
ed, and in many instances granted are
menacing, not in the main because Of
their effect upon the profit Of the EN-.
ployers Immediately involved, but
because they threaten the general
prosperity. This is particularly true
of those which are pressed by the ar.
bitrary power Of organizations which
have the power to disturb the general
business Of the country, for such ad.
vances interfere with the free play