Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1923-01-14
SPECTATORS BUSY,
INVESTORS WAITING
Turn of Year Leaves Long
Range Outlook Uncertain.
New Issues Absorbed.
MUCH DEPENDS ON RUHR
Domestic Business Prospects Still
Good-Car Loadings Re-
main Heavy.
BY BYRON SELLERS.
Dispatch to The Star.

cpeclnI 1ispatcn TO The star.
NEW YORK. January 13.-The turn
of the year to which the financial
forecasters looked forward has come
and gone and today the long-range
outlook Is no more clear, than 1t was
a week ago.
The speculative markets continue
to absorb trading interest. The in
vestment markets are dull and I'M
changed. New issues offered at at
tractive prices are easily sold. but
the old ones drag. Liberty bonds
fiuctuate over a very small range.
For n day or two after the French
carried into effect their long standing
threat TO use force upon a recalcitrant
Germany spectators hesitated. and
franc exchange and French bonds
weakened. but the effect was short
lived. Sterling exchange continued
phenomenally strong, and the Amerf-
can markets take their cue from Lon
don.
Those whose profession it is o'give
advice to stock spectators say that
prices are going up. They put their
faith in charts and theories OF the
business cycle So far there has
been nothing to show that these
gentlemen are wrong.
WntchfuI Waiting Policy.
Probably the most notable devel-
opment of the week was the calm
with which the news of the French
invasion was received. The whole
financial world seems to have adopt
ed watchful waiting policy. The
question TO be answered Is. to what
extent can the French benefit
Praise or blame will go with the re-
suit. 1t may be that all our markets
are under the influence of some fac
tor more fundamental than even the
european situation. If so, the clue
will doubtless be found in the course
of money rates. but so far no distinct
trend has appeared.
If we turn for guidance to the
economists We find them predicting
what they call imitation. In guarded
lions, they forecast advancing COM
modify prices and credit expansion.
Such conditions accompany what ap-
pears to be great prosperity in bust
ness. This much is certain. Both
manufacturers and merchants look
forward to the year without mis-
gtvings.
Auto People Optimistic.
The automobile people are particu-
iarly optimistic. Plans are being
made for great expansion involving
the largest output in the history of
the industry. 1t is interesting to note
that S3 per cent of the 1922 motor car
production was divided among six
corporations. Probably the tendency
VIII be moro and more toward con-
sotidatton as competition becomes
more sharp.
The automobile equipment and part
manufacturers expect to share the
good times anticipated by the makers
OF cars The rubber and tire COM
panfes look forward to better things.
The irregular year has not been so
prosperous. but they think that the
crude rubber will help any their
hopes are well founded. The compe-
tltfon In the tire industry, however,
Is even more severe than in the
making and selling of cars
Copper and iron and steel prices
are strong to higher. Copper secu-
rites especially are speculative ia
vorites. Incidentally the financing
expected to accompany the Anaconda
acquisition of controlling interest
in Chile Copper will be a severe test
of the ability of the investment mar
ket TO absorb new securities, the total
of which, in this case alone, Is esti-
mated as high as s130.O00,000.
Car 'Loadings Remain Heavy.
Railway car loadings OF revenue
freight continue the heaviest in his
tory for this time Of year. The flu
treatment they receive from the leg
islators at Washington. The infiu-
ence of politics must not be over
looked by those who scan the finan-
cial horizon.
Much interest is taken in the atti-
tude the so-called agricultural bloc
will show toward the federal reserve
system. The ideas of some of the
agricultural senators as TO banking
policies are at sharp variance with
hal hrv
Probably the first conflict will come
over the question Of discount rates
Members of the farm bloc in Con-
gress believe their constituents de-
mand low rates. Banking opinion is
that IL any tendency toward imitation
should appear rates must be raised.
1t is an old conflict and can end only
one way. Too much credit is just as
fatal as none at all.
Transportation Clouds.
Even in periods OF prosperity not
all industries are equally prosperous,
just as in periods of depression not
all industries suffer alike. The prog
ress of invention sometimes out
weighs economic considerations. For
example. we seem to be in a trans
ition period as far as transportation
is concerned.
1t remains to be seen how far the
motor truck is going to be a real
competitor Of the railroad. Appar-
emily the truck has an enormous adj
vantage in the matter of terminal
costs. Meanwhile the Pennsylvania
has announced the curtailment of To-
cal accommodation service at various
points throughout the middle west be-
cause OF the competition of the pas
senger automobile. On the other
hand, the electric railway people as
sert that more persons rode on the
trolIeys in 1922 than in 1921. It will
not do to be too dogmatic about these
subjects.
Copyright, 1929