The Washington times., 1923-05-18
WIN TER WHEAT
CROP HELD AS
UNCERTAIN
Weather Conditions and Aban.
donment of Acreage Are
important Factors.
By THOMAS TEMPLE HOYNE,
Author of "SpeculatiOn'' and Authority
On Grain Markets.

Author of Speculation" and Authority
On Grain Markets.
(Written for Cosmopolitan News service.)
CHICAGO. May 18.-The posi-
bilities of the wheat crop of the
United States for 1923 are more
than usually uncertain even for so
early in the season. This is be-
cause weather and crop conditions
have already given evidence of
anomalies during the early growing
season that have been predicted as
likely to be recurrent throughout
the year.
So long ago as last fall a prom.
inent English scientist issued the
warning that 1923 was likely to see
worldwide failure of crops. He
based his admonition on sun spots
and meteorological conditions. Less
erudite observers give considerable
attention to this prediction, because
there has been a. succession of par
ticularly fat years agriculturally.
The year when nature rests" is
looked for.
Exports Affect Wheat.
The cheap price of wheat in
American markets at present is not
due to any particular abundance
promised in early estimates of new
crop conditions. 1t Is due to the
greatly decreased volume of exports
Considerably more than $4,000 900
bushels less wheat has been shipped
abroad during the present crop year
to date, compared with the cor
responding period a year ago.
The May crop report estimates
the winter wheat crop as likely to
be 578,287 900 bushels. This COM
pares with a crop of 586,204 900
bushels harvested in 1922. The
abandonment of acreage due to
drought and winter killing. is placed
at 14.S per cent, leaving 39,750 900
ton of the crop is estimated to be
80.1. Last May the condition of
the crop was 83.5. The average
May condition for ten years is SIS.
On the condition this year the yield
should be about las bushels to the
acre.
Likelihood of Decrease.
On these figures alone it is APP
parent that there is nothing in the
prospects for winter wheat this
year that is remarkably brilliant.
Furthermore, there are specific
great significance in pointing out
likelihood of considerable decrease
in the size of the crop before it
comes to harvest in early and mid
summer.
Always, in attempting to size up
crop prospects, it is of supreme i'm
portance to observe conditions in
the big surplus States. This year,
for example, Kansas and Nebraska
were the big sufferers from weather
conditions, as is made clear by the
percentage of acreage abandonment
in those States. Only in South Da-
kota, Colorado and New Mexico was
there heavier abandonment, and
of these States only Colorado raises
enough winter wheat to make it
worthy of consideration. In these
three States the abandonment was
1898 and SO per cent, respectively.
Large Acreage Abandoned.
In Kansas, the banner winter
wheat State, % per cent of the
acreage was abandoned. The prob.
able 1928 crop is estimated at 49,
O87 900 bushels by the Government,
against 122,737 900 bushels har-
vested last year.
In western Kansas the drought
was excessive, and it is a question
whether there is not a lack of
sub-soil moisture in a great part
of the State which will become
apparent in deterioration of the
grain later, if there is extreme hot
weather in June and a lack of rain
fall
In Nebraska, which stood second
in winter wheat production in 1922,
the abandonment also was very
heavy, being % per cent. From a
crop Of $3.50 bushels harvested
last year, the Government estimate
cuts down the probable yield this
year to 1851 900 bushels. Condi-
tons in this State are similar to
%1oosa In Kansas