The Birmingham age-herald., 1923-03-26
FINANCIAL EXPERT SAYS PESS|M|SM
 |S OUT IF ORDER.
Declares Present Industrial Activity Will Continue Dur
 ing 1923 and 1924
By WALTER B. BROWN Editor New York Commercial Especial Dispatch to The ASe-Hcrald) }

Especial Dispatch to The Age-Hcrald)
 NEW YORK, March 25.-If it were possible to stabilize both business and industry on its present satisfac- tory basis, it would be highly de- sirable. So far as it is possible to exercise any control over the situa- tion, an effort is being made in the direction of this stabilization. The situation, however, cannot remain stationary. There are too many di- verse elements entering into it. As suming that we have reached maxi mum production, which means maxi mum supply. we would have to as sume also that demands would re- main stationary. This, of course, is out of the question.
 Taking the single item of railroad equipment, which is one of the big gest items, we find that the mills are booked up practically for the re- mafnder of the current year and would book still further if they could be assured of the stability of produc- toin costs, but the demand for labor is Increasing and is bound to do so as long as mill capacity has not reached its limit. And there is still some excess of this owing to the ex- pansion of the war period. Demand for labor, therefore, being in excess of the supply. wages will advance as they are already doing. In due course prices for commodities will reach a point where consumption will natur- ally be curtailed- Before that point is reached however, there will be additional demands upon credit to all low for these advanced costs.
 o O O
 Prices Higher.
 The level of wholesale prices, &C., cording to the latest report of the department of labor, which seems To have the most satiswactor sta tistics, places the level of wholesale prices at 11.3 per cent higher than d year ago, while retail prices are about per cent higher. The ex- planation of this is that for the time being retailers are still working on their earlier wholesale purchases, al . though when they come to replenish they will be obliged to pass along the higher prices to the consumer. There is fear in many quarters that the consumer will resist these advances, but, as already explained, this is not likely to happen if the advances are Justified on an actual supply and de- mand basis and are not being forced out of line through sheer specula- tion.
 Wholesale prices are, however, 57 per cent higher than 1913, which is used as par in these calculations Leaving out of consideration the fact that commodity prices have in the meantime reached much higher levels only to drop again during the defla- ton period, comparisons since 1915 and within the last F months are of interest. Fuel prices show the greatest total advance, amounting to 112 per cent, but within the last year have advanced 10.9 per cent. The first advance was due to the heavy increase in mine wages, while the ad- vance of the past year represents the increased cost of fuel oils. The greatest advance for the year is in metals, amounting to 26.3 per cent, 10 be found In steel and copper, al though distributed also over other descriptions. As reported by the de- partment of labor, these comparisons are as follows: Farm produces, 42 per cent higher since 1913. with gain of S.3 per cent in the last F months; food products, Al per cent, and A per cent; clothing. 99 and 14.3 per cent; fuel, 112 per cent and 10.9 per cent; metals, 39 per cent and 26.3 per cent; building materials, 92 per cent and 23 per cent: chemicals, 32 per cent and 7.3 per cent: furniture, average of 57 per cent advance since 1913 and 11.3 per cent for the last F months.
 Bond Prices Down.
 Commercial paper is now generally on per cent DaSlS, so that the open market rate for money is again above the rediscount rate. Advances in the latter are In order and when made they should be regarded only as a normal development. In Wall Street circles they will probably be used by the bear party as an excuse for a drive on prices, but the trading community should not be carried away by any demonstrations of this kind. Bond prices have shown slight downward tendency, which Is natural where money is showing a hardening tendency. Further irreg- ularity in bonds is to be ascribed to the fact that trading interest Is cen tered largely in stocks. The move- ment of bond prices should not be regarded as of special significance. If they should continue steadily downward for a considerable period of time, then they could be regarded as foreshadoYing decline in stocks, but there is nothing to inicate this at the present time.
 A survey of the financial and in- dustrial situation at this time leads to the belief that the present aotiv- ity will continue throughout the re- ! mainder of 1923 and probably into 1924. There are likely to be some . minor adverse movements, but while enthusiasm should be tempered with judgment, there is no excuse for pes sinistic predictions on the present basis of facts.