The Birmingham age-herald., 1923-03-19
EXPERT PREDICTS BIC EXPORT BOOM AHEAD IF NAT |ON
Settlement of Preparations | Will Mean Rush of Orders
 From Europe
By WALTER B. BROWN OEsiitor New York Commercial. }

NEW YORK. March 1S.-In normal ftimes our production exceeds our consumption by about 10 per cent. which means that we require for eign outlet for that surplus. At the present time, all things considered, we are doing pretty good export business, and any further demands r upon our manufactured products would place serious strain upon us. This has already been indicated by the fact that cur steel mills have been obliged to refuse orders com ing to us from foreign sources be- cause of the French occupation of the sRuhr. In the course of time, how eve-, just how long no one can say. the excess domestic demand will be resolved and we will once again be dependent upon foreign orders.
 Sooner or later the German repara- tions problem will be settled and from present indications, it will be sooner rather than later. When this does come about. it will inaugurate a worldwide trade boom, some DOT : stion of which will spread over the United States. We are not yet using our full plant capacity because Of the extensions made during the war period, but the question of labor will be a serious one.
 Years of Activity.
 If other countries are able to un- ueTJake what We dIt tblIS HUN namely, repairing war damages, it will mean long years of industrial activity. It will usher in an entirely new series of economic problems and we will have to meet the problem or imitation in an entirely new form. It will not do to put this suggestion aside as something of the rather dis tant future. Our own industrial re- covery has been fully as sensational as our deflation. Our wiseacres pre- dicted that our depression would last several years and that our recovery would be a slow end painful prob lem. This, of course, was the natu- ral deduction based upon previous ex- perience.
 All Precedents Broken.
 But as the writer has frequently pointed out, precedents are Cf no par ticular account following war which itself was entirely without precedent and which introduced new factors of the situation, themselves entirely without precedent. We never before were the creditor na- tion, owning the larger percentage of the worlds gold supply and deal ing with an impoverished Europe. Those who make predictions as to what will or will not happen are talk ing rather long chances, but one can a. least consider the posslbil- ities Our settlement of the terms of the British debt will be followed in due course by similar settlements with our other debtor nations and at this writing, the suggestion Is being made that Great Britain can eel a portion of what France owes her with the understanding that she will, in turn. cancel part of the Ger < man debt. This is a roundabout way, Great Britain assuming part of Ger many's indebtedness to France, and it is not being done through. any love fo~ Germany. but because of the great economic fact that Great Brit tin wants German markets, the loss of which is, in measure, respon- sible for her present unemployment problem.
 O O O
 Strenuous Efforts Made.
 Whether this comes to pass or not, the point is that strenuous efforts are being made to settle the repara- tions problem and in the course Of time it will be successful. But for the time being at least, we are not overanxious for 1ny additional de- Hmands to be made upon our indus 't trial resources. This does not mean that we are indifferent to foreign trade for as matter of fact there