New Britain herald., 1923-01-20

deFly say un from depression ints
 prosperity, se seuld be attempting
 q short cut, We would be trying ta
 eNads the iaii end Of our aueia 0l
 depression There would De a set,
 back which would last until that ano-
 Ia vas completed, Al the moment
 there is no sign of such imitation. The
 indications are that the remaining
 fragment Of the allotted depression
 will he wiped out in due course; and
 with a clean slate We shall be ready
 for the next period Of prosperity.
 "Mili our next period Of prosperity
 he big or smalls The question Is pe- euliarly difficult, After big peried
 of ever-eNpansion, a big action, it is
 practically certain tha. there will be a
 big period of depression, a big re- action, Knowing the action, you can forecast the reaeti0n-hut the rule is hard ta work hoth ways, To illus irate, lf you stretch a spring a certain amount you can forecast approximate iy what will he the rebound, Hut you can't. So easily foretell how far the spring will he stretched the next time. Hence. periods of prosperity or action are far more difficult to fore cast than periods of depression or res action,
 However. We know that there is general tendency toward equality, In other words. in the long run. periods of prosperity tend to be about equal. They vary greatly in duration. and they vary greatly in intensity, But the intense periods are usually short. and the mild periods are usually long, 10 that the area or mass is remark ably constant. Though the form Of the next period of prosperity is still undetermined. we know in advance with reasonable assurance that its area or mass will he approximately that of previous periods. Shortly after iv has begun to develop there may he a clue to its probable form, whether intense and brief, or moder- ate and prolonged.
 Besides this principle of action and reaction. there Is another feature of the business cycle that can safely be applied in practical ways. Every business and every locality has its own particular place in the cycle, The bond market, for example, is usually far in the lead, declining or advancing before other factors show n change of trend. Tho stock market also has pronounced lead. Though not 50. prompt as the security markets, building is somewhat in the van as compared with other lines of business activity Near the other extreme is retail trade, which Is a laggard both on the up-swings and the down. swings. Comparing different sections of the country. the manufacturing centers tend to lead. and the regions of production of raw materials tend to lag. Comparing the physical quan- tity ot business with it's dollar value, quantity advances or declines before value. In store. the number of sales slips fphysical quantity) tends to decline before the cash register readings (amount of sales in dollars.) In construction industry the num- Ter of permits tends to decline before their value in dollars.
 But the thing of real importance is not merely to know this sequence which is fairly simple proposition- but also to know how fast the per iod of depression or over-expansion is being run off. For example. early in 1920 the stock market turned down. The retailer who noticed this reversal and attempted to estimate when the lightning would strike his own business would have been at a loss to set the date. But presently when general business sank below pa and began to sweep out an area of then the retailer was able to forecast. Knowing how much de