The Arvada enterprise., 1923-09-27
Forecasting Big
Help to Farmers
Statement of What May Be
Expected to Happen Based
Upon Present Conditions.

nearly On an even basis with those In
other industries In deciding whether
to continue In accordance with their
old plans or readjust their produc-
ton, owing to permanent changes
which may have taken place in mar
keting conditions" says Or. Henry c.
Taylor, chief of the bureau OF ugricul-
tural economies OF the Department of
Agriculture.
I'm periods OF unsettled economic
conditions, agricultural forecastinI Is
OF great Importance" says Doctor
Taylor. "The great war has thrown
economic relations out OF equilibrium.
The agricultural depression has result
ed In efforts on the part of the farm
ers to improve their situation through
establishments.
"Forecasting can he viewed not only
from the standpoint OF the individual
farmer and the merchant dealing In
farm products but also from the mn
tional point OF vicw-the supply of
food and raw materials for the nation
throughout II series OF years. From
the individual point of view, forecast
Ing is the basis of wise farm manage
ment and marketing.
Basis Of Policy.
"From the national point of view II
Is the basis of n national agricultural
policy. From the latter point of view
agricultural forecusting centers about
the question of the right utilization of
land-how much should be used for
each of the cultivated crops, how much
for forestry and how much for parks
and Fairgrounds In order that the
maximum of national well-beIng mny
be attained.
"Frequcnt charges In the sources OF
supply, quantities produced and the
consequent changes In prices OF fnrm
products lead to II desire for IL better
basis of judgment thnn most farmers
now have when projecting their plans
for the coming year" says Doctor
Taylor This has led various ngen-
cies to attempt to supply this need by
making forcca.'s of what Is likely to
happen. a forecast is n statement OF
what may be expected to happen.
based upon present conditions and OBJ
servations Interpreted in the light of
previous experience and Is the basis
of planning beforehand what action
to take In order to secure n desired
end.
Farmers of necessity make fore
casts In the Hight OF their knowledge
of the physical and economic environ
mcnt they decide what they VIII UNI
dertake To do for the coming year
how much land they will use. the acre.
ngc they will put into each of the varI-
Gus crops and the live stock they Will
keep as n part of the farming opera.
lions. Merchants who deal In farm
products give even more attention to
agricultural forccasilng than do farm
crs themselves. In so far ms the
economic factors nre concerned farm
crs too generally determine how much
they will produce next year OF II given
crop on the basis OF present prices
rather thnn prospective prices. AS II
result they have often planted high
priced seed In Increased quantities and
sold the increased quantities OF prod
uct ut low prices and, In turn, planted
| lightly OF low-prlccd seeds and had n
small production to sell nj high prices.
Supply and Demand.
The buyers Of farm products take
into account not only produce an hand.
but the probable future supply OF the
| product which may be forthcoming lf
there Is II 10 per cent surplus Of the
| product Of one year to he carried over
to the next year. the buyer Of this sur.
| plus naturally bases the price he IL
willing to pay upon the probable price
he will he able To secure the next year
and this he bases on the forecast Of
whnt will probably be produced the
next year.
while forecasts have always been
made by farmers and merchants and
VIII continue to be made, II IN be.
licvcd that agricultural forccasiing cnn
| V" mad" more accurate by bringing Ia
bear historical and statistical meth.
"ds Of collecting materials which viii
ndd to the accuracy Of this forecast.
Ing.
"A knowledge Of present trends In
| production and prices In the light Of
| past experience will add greatly to the
accuracy of forccnsiiDg. Further.
more. knowledge Of the Intentions Of
others. who ARE simultaneously hgiir.
| Ing on making r"ndIusimcnts. win I'm.
I.. Ian