Evening star., 1923-01-01
FINANCIAL CLOUDS
AMID PROSPERITY
1923 Undertone Cheerful,
But Business Leaders See
Menacing Conditions.
MUCH HINGES ON EUROPE
U. S. Should Help in Practical
Way, Economists Assert-Prob-
lens at Home.
| MUCH HINGES ON EUROPE
By the Associated Press.

By the Associated Press.
NEW YORK; January 1.-As the
country's leading economists, bank
ers and business men review the past
twelve months and attempt to fore
cast the future a distinctly cheerful
undertone is in evidence. 1t is gen.
orally recognized that the past year
has been materially better than eX-
pected-that the business revival has
developed an unforeseen vigor. Thus
il is pointed out that the country has
enjoyed an unprecedented building
boom. that the steel industry has out
stripped all pre-war years in the mat
ter of the rate of production and that
buying of automobiles has set a new
high record. Deflation of prices has
ceased and has been succeeded by
distinct frming up, employment ls
full and purchasing power in the
urban and industrial districts is high.
| 1923 skies Not CIOudless.
In expressing a belief that the pres
ent revival will continue with mod
crate increase in Vigor during the
next several months, business leaders
do not hesitate to point out that the
skies are not cloudless. 1t is realized,
for example that the farmers posi-
tion is not yet wholly satisfactory in
many districts, and in the northwest
in particular, farmers still are heavily
in debt and are securing but mouest
returns for their crops.
Some observers think that. 1t viii
be fully two years before the situa-
| ton in these districts will be restored
to something like normal. Ihe view
| is held that conditions are gradually
on the mend, and the marked I'M
provement which has occurred In the
nf nrlCeS
obtained from the present cotton crop
| is cited as an example of what might
happen in the grain growing districts
if prices should take a decisive turn
| for the better.
Much Depends on Europe.
In this connection much emphasis
| is laid on the Importance or the Eu-
noint out that, roughly, one-third OF
the country'S wheat must De sofa
abroad and that the price OF wheat
| Is determined In the world market.
AS Europe is the chief customer LOT
| our wheat it follows, so the argument
rnns that farmers cannot receive
advantageous. prices for their gram
as long as European purchasing pow
| er remains depleted. There is a very
general agreement among bankers
that the question OF whether OF no -
| the country is to have a return 10
| full prosperity depends on the prog
ress which is made in restoring peace
| and commercial stability in Europe;
! Opinions differ as TO the precise
! stems which this country should take,
b,,t there is unanimity of opinion on
! the point that the country's Weltare
is involved and that busSnesS-nk e
| steps should be taken to Improve the
| situation With regard to European
! nrospects, the attitude seems to pc
| one of cautious hopefulness. Condi-
tions now are thought to be more
Favorable to a settlement of the repa-
| rations, but it is realized that prog
| ress in this matter heretofore mas
| been slow and that the reVlval IN
! European trade propaply VIII pe
! gradual.
/ Labor Shortage Looms.
! Considerable emphasis is laid on
| the shortage of labor. Industriallsts
assert that labor conditions already
were uncomfortable during the past
! fall and that revival OF the troup!e
is quite within the bounds of possl-
bility during the coming year. Some
! go so far as to say that bidding Tor
iabor may result in high wages and
low efficiency, thus raising production
cost and so favoring an lnnatlon
which might result in speculative
| hoom-with unpleasant after effects.
Others consider that the outcome of
the shopmen'S strike has had sober
ing effect and that serious difficulties
are not probable.
Expectations of steady or higher
commodity prices are in the majority.
Absence of excessive stocks of ma
teriaIs, the. labor shortage, the tariff
and the existing tendency are all Of
| fered as evidence supporting this
view. At the same time 1T is thought
that money will remain relatively
plentiful, although there is a pre-
ponderance of opinion to the effect
that rates will rise if the revival
imakes further marked progress.
Railroads Progressing.
Railroad executives do not expect
any material changes in rates and
| wages during the coming year. The
railroad companies are stated to be
making progress in restoring the
physical condition of the properties
to normal and there is general wish
that the transportation act be given
a fair trial. AS to whether a serious
car shortage will develop there Is
much difference of opinion. On the
one hand 1t is pointed out that the
roads have been unable to buy the