The Birmingham age-herald., 1923-12-31
YEAR IN GRAIN

NEW YORK, Dec. 3o.--In the popu- lar mind this has been a calamitous year for the farmers. The city dwell Ter has the idea that the farming community is bankrupt and that the situation is so serious that nothing short of government intervention will save the farmers, particularly those Iii the northwest, from starvation. The truth is this has been good year for the agricultural community with the exception of those farmers who have relied exclusively on spring wheat. The one crop farmer is always at 8 disadvantage for If he is out of luck with his crop he Is out of luck altogether. Carrying ones eggs in one basket has never been commended as an altogether judicious proceedings. The outcry from these farmers and particularly from the politicians who have sought to make political capital out of their plight, gave the impression that the whole farming industry was in bad way. In fact so serious did this situation become that eastern bank CTS were afraid to handle western farm loans and it soon became neces- sary for the farmers themselves to correct the impression. This years wheat crop, although only moderate in size, found itself in competition
 
 porting countries as well as di- unfinished requirements in the import ing countries due to their own in creased production.
 Wheat in the United States is a surplus crop. Our domestic require ments are about five bushels per capita or in other words, 1t is rough ly estimated that each man. woman and child eats a barrel of flour a tt,u~ about 9o.000,000 bushels, or a total of 640,000,000 bushels for all domes- tic requirements. On July 1, when the new season begins, the depart ment of agriculture reported a carry over of 101 100000 bushels including wheat In public elevators and on the farms. This had to be added to the new crop which according to the final figures of the government proved to be 7S5,741,00O bushels, which with the carry over made a total supply of approximatel SS6,- 000,000 bushels. This left us with 246,000,000 bushels for export and for carry over into next years crop. The slackened demand for American wheat is reflected in the export figures for the five months begin ming with July which were only y0,- 1SS,000 bushels. as compared with 132,583,000 bushels last year for a similar period, 1S1,104,000 bushels two years ago and 176,336,000 bush els three years ago. At this same ratio our carry over into the new crop next year might be as high as 100.000,000 bushels, whereas 10000, 900 bushels has heretofore been considered pretty sizeable surplus to carry from one year to another.
 Very Low Price.
 The price of wheat is determined, by what it brings in the world mar ket. For the first time since 1914 it fell below s1 when the winter wheat harvest started in. touching 96ss cents in Chicago for the July delivery. This was a very low price even reckoned in cents per bushel, but comparisons with pre-war prices cannot be made upon a sound basis without reckoning In the factor of the purchasing power of the dollar. In 1914 when the dollar was worth 100 cents and wheat selling for $1 bushel basis of reckoning was es- tablished. During the war when the price was s2.20 a bushel in Chicago, the dollar was worth only 40 cents in purchasing power and bushel of wheat therefore was worth relatively only 8S cents, that is to say that If 8 bushel of wheat in 1914 could be exchanged for other commodities worth s1, bushel of wheat durine the war could be exchanged for only SS per cent or the quantity 1t would bring before the war. Wheat in 1923 was exchangeable for a dollar worth 63 cents and at 96ss cents bushel had relative value of 60.7 cents, or in exchange value com pared with 1914 a bushel of wheat would bring back only GOT per cent in quantity. Wheat at present is worth s1.14 and the dollar about 62 cents, so that it's relative value is TOT cents. Thus in exchange value, or to make more accurate compari- son with 1914. wheat that was worth $1 then was worth only SS cents during the war 60.7 cents last sum mer and TOT cents at the present time. This has worked both to the advantage and disadvantage of the farmer. Obligations he contracted in