, 1923-09-24
Balfour' S Forecasts

rbos. 1vbo are interested in the future oil
American industry should find mucn loou y
thought in a recent article written Dy on r -
Balfour and published in London Papers. ~
no discusses at length industrial conditions IN
the United States and the OUTLOOK . ~.
competition with America. lie estimates Ina
there will be a fair internal trade IN II on-sod
states for eighteen months, after that a periou
Of depression for three or four years. nc ~
nredicts n very considerable modification OF the
Fordney tariff after the next election
Eigbteen months from the present time would
bring ms IN to April 1925. Sir Arthur predicts
that a . the result of the elections of 1924 there
will he n modification of the Fordney. tarlii.
The new congress which Will be elected N II,
will take office in 1925. Balfour's opinion is that
the NEXT congress will be Democratic ana that
hv Anvil 1923. that congress will get In its dead
Iy work ON the Fordney tariff law and that tnere
will be. "a period of depression for three OF 1our
years"
It is quite impossible that a congress elected
In 1924 and taking office in March, 1913, could
reneal the Republican tariff law by April, the
neriod of eighteen months. Perhaps Sir Arthur
had in mind the historical fact that American
industry begins to decline with the assurance
that adverse conditions are approaching, ana
that assurance would be given upon the election
of a law-tariff congress.
However, it is not worth while to discuss the
question how soon a Democratic congress could
make its Influence felt. The important thing to
keep in mind is that Sir Arthur makes practi'
cally simultaneous the coming In of a Demo
cratic administration and the beginning of a per
iod of depression which, in his opinion would
last three or four years. He is undoubtedly judg-
ing the future by the past. We have seen on
previous occasions that when a Democratic adj
ministration comes into power and enacts a
Democratic tariff law we have, under normal
conditions, a depression that lasts three or four
years or until the people can reverse their action
and restore an administration that believes in
the principle of protection to American indus
try.
While 1t is easy to agree with Sir Arthur that
a considerable modification of the Fordney tar
if, would bring on "a period Of depression for
three or four years." it is not easy to agree with
him that such a modification is to take place.
The American people can remember the effects
of the Democratic tariff law of 1893. They can
also remember that following the enactment of
the Democratic tariff law Of 1918 there was a
tremendous depression in American industry
with millions of men out of employment. They
remember that the depression continued until
September, 1914, when the war in Europe cut off
imports and furnished us a new and unprece'
dented market for our products. With these facts
still firm in the memories of American voters
there is no likelihood that in the next election
they will again vote the Democratic party into
power.
Sir Arthur is a successful British business
man. Perhaps his wish that British goods may
figure more in supplying the American market
is TO some extent the father to his thought that
such will be the case. Our own judgment is that
history will prove him a poor prophet of Amer
lean politics.