Evening star., 1923-12-31

the contest between bonus on the
one hand and a tax cut on the other
is carried over into 1924.
The political leaders in the repub-
lican party doubted the wisdom OF
opening up the tax question. but the
force of public opinion was irresist-
ible. The bonus had many friends
on its merits. 1t had friends in the
last Congress when there was no
such question as tax reduction to
compete with it for consideration. The
American Legion through its effective
Legislative committee has pledged
members of both houses. Whether
the campaign of letter-writing from
constituents in the next few weeks
will change those votes remains to
be seen.
But at the moment the twin issues
bonus and tax reduction-are con-
tributing still further to the un-
certainty which has characterized
everything national and international
for the last five years.
Prediction is always dangerous be-
cause SO many unforeseen circum-
stances may arise to change any
forecast. But the outlook as this is
written can best be described by
taking up each of the possibilities:
Veto Is Predicted.
First. If the bonus is passed by
both houses it will be vetoed by
President Coolidge.
Second. Although enough votes
it over a veto-two thirds of
both houses are needed-there is no
telling what the effect on public
opinion would be If the President
stated his opposition in such way as
to indicate serious consequences to
the nations finances. His power
with public opinion cannot be under
estimated or even be foreseen till the
contingency arises.
Third. The break of republican
members of Congress away from the
President to override a veto will be
a much more serious affair politically
for them all than it would have been
last year when not enough votes
could be mustered to override the
veto.
Fourth If the bonus bill should be
passed over the veto of President
Coolidge bhe true test of the accuracy
of estimates on cost Will then de-
velop. Tax reduction will be insisted
upon just the same and unquestion-
ably new system of taxation, con-
sumption tax or luxury tax would be
devised. This would admittedly be
felt by tbs whole public, but the pain
would be distributed. and, theoreti-
cally, at least, business would not be
harmed as seriously as by a reten-
tion of certain unproductive taxes
such as are being advocated by the
demagogues in both houses of Con
gress.
What the people of America will
see in the first few months of 1924 is
an effort to camoufiage the tax bill.
an effort to make believe tax re-
duction has been accomplished when
the burden on the poor man In cost
of living would not be changed,
Never perhaps since the war have
there been such signs of check
up by the public on the acts OF
Congress. It's by far the most en-
couraging thing about the year 1929
lit has reused the American people
to a unanimous interest in what hap
pens to their tax laws.
The presidential campaign Of 1924
is of course, no small factor in this
responsiveness of Congress to public
opinion. But If Congress should dis
pose of the bonus and tax reduction
in the first four months of 1924 the
campaign of 1924 will be a tame af-
fair The danger is that nothing may
be done and that the issues may be
dragged into the campaign itself.
Every sign points to the selection
of candidates on the republican and
democratic tickets from whom legiti-
mate business would have nothing to
fear If either were elected. The sup
posedly dangerous radical-Henry
Ford-turns out to be a conservative
and to be in favor of Mr. Coolidge.
Senator La Toilette, the other radica :.
aggressive following, shrewd in ma
neuvers of a parliamentary charactef'
and able to keep the two major or
ganizations on the anxious seat.
Outlook Better for 1924.
But basically the government is
not yet in control of the radicals, and
the development of better farm and
business conditions in 1924 will make
that possibility even more remote.
This correspondent spent some time
been watching events Yin Washington
every day for many years and the
inescapable conclusion which he finds
himself reaching is that 1923 was not
as bad as 1t might have been and
that 1894 will be a much better year
than the pessimists are predicting.