Evening star., 1923-12-29
BdbsOn Sure Keen Business Men
Will Make Good Profits IN 1924
Sees Movements II, ''CentraI ZOneo With
No Big Boom--Success Lies in Sailing
E Ship Way Wind Blo,cs.

men who insist that they must have
rising commodity prices and specula-
tive profits i'm order to do business
and make progress cannot have this
condition to help them much more
than a quarter of the time. In this
case, three-quarters of their business
lives are spent in waiting for this
particular business season in which
they are ready to operate, They are
not contented with business when it
Is in the central zone and are ex-
. tremely unhappy during a depression
The entire business community
would be much better off ii we COM
planned OF excessive booms as we.
IL we welcomed the moderate condi-
tions, which are neither so very bad
nor yet extremely good, as the proper
business weather. We ought TO
have more OF this sort of condition
than any other, and the wise busi-
ness man will set his plans to oper-
ate under these circumstances.
1924 Central Zone Year.
The facts indicate that we shall
n nave such year during 1924. even
age, rather than above. In the mid
ole OF 1922 Improvement set In and
with the help of propaganda 1t Ger
shot itself In the spring OF 1923. Then
settled down to fairly good bust
ness and may expect to continue some
what along this line the coming
year.
An important thing TO remember.
however, is that study of the law
OF action and reaction suggests that
area G below the average line should
eventually equal the big boom area r
above this line. More than half o.
this readjustment perio1 has already
elapsed. How fast the remainder will
develop remains to be seen. Those
who wish to galvaaixe business INTO
abnormal prosperity ire therefore
working against the Fundamentals.
time below the average line dcriag
the coming months? This really does
not matter. So long as we keep
within a few points. Jrie way or the
other, from our Ky lina of average
growth, we can progress slea.iil;- ami
make money without fear OF the ex-
treme fuctuation and maladjustment
characteristic of high boolns and deer
depressions.
What Barometers show.
Those who are exceedingly opti-.
mistfc for the next twelve months
would call your attention to carload
tngs, which for 1923 ran 10 per cent
they. say, indicates great manufac-
turing activity. Building permits
during the last year have run 80 per
cent above 1922. which set the previ-
Ouc mig bdnk sQepOSlLS are
large, and money is plentiful. The oil
situation Is improving and the motor
industry, they say, looks good. To
this, answer yes-and the mail order
and chain store business Is improving
and the crop situation is guoa. exy
cepting cotton-and there we have
80 to 40 cent staple. .F
Against these optimistic signs we
find many of our basic industries
suffering from excess factory capac-
hoId Int
have dwindled and many largo mall
ufacturers are trying to rea1Just cost
so that they can continue to oper-
ate without a great loss. Foreign
ing menace. The tariff wall helps. to
be sure, but it is of temporary nature;
and when the water has risen behind
the dam to certain point 1t begins
to run over the top. f
Some are already feeling this for
efgn competition. Others Will prob
ably have to, take it into account be-.
fore the year is out. There Is a Pc
ct1far thing about the foreign sftua-
ton. If matters get worse over there
We shall share in the shock which will
go around the world. On the other
hand when things clear up over there
will not that be the signal for rush of
exports to this country? Either way
we look at 1t 1t is a problem. 4
Purchasing Power Overstrained.
Distribution costs. in the meantime,
are increasing rapidly. Increased
production usually spells lower cost
to make, but higher cost to sell. In
trying to keep all of our factories
busy all the time we have developed
a very effective sales organization,
but the fact of the matter is that the
number Of things which the public
Is asked to buy has Increased more
rapidly than our national purchasing
power. The automobile, the radio and
score Of others of the newer neces-
sities, and luxuries have come In to
1Continued on Fourteenth Page.)