Evening star., 1923-10-27
5,O0,O0NEW CARS
IN 1924POSS|B[E
Indications Point to Increase
In Automobile 0utput--Big-
+, qest Sales Factors.
NY J. @. RoYLE.

Special Dispatch 20 The Star.
NEW YORK, October 27.-Expan-
sions at the Ford factories indicate
that the 1924 output OF Ford cars and
trucks may be far closer to 100000
than the 1000, 900 vehicles which the
company will turn out this year. The
numbers which other large manufac-
turers plan to make and sell Will
nearly equal the Ford estimate, so
that the combined expectations ofthe
automobile trade will total around
five million cars, all told.
The Ford company has begun
large addition to its foundry plant at
River r ouge, which will make daily
output OF ten Thousand vehicles pos
added to the glass plant will increase
capacity from II 1000 feet OF plate
glass a day to $4,000 feet. AS the
glass supply has been one OF the rae.
tors limiting production there 90 nos
seem to be any obstacles In the way
of boosting present daily production
by a Thousand cars Or SO.
Plans Of other Firms.
At 5000 day the 1894 output
would reach approximately z,ooo.VVv
cars while at 10000 daily the output
would total 100000. on a basis OF
dition. Chevrolet. which sold Ss.4oo
cars last month, counts on selling three
quarters OF million next year. over:
land expects to dispose or arouno
100000 and other makers are eQualiy
optimistic. These estimates, of course
will be subject to heavy scaling down.
but If four million cars are disposed
of this year, 1t hardly seems possible
that more can be sold next year. Yet
the Ford officials are confident that
rN fo ~ n
will exist and only once In twenty
years have they erred in judging fu-
ture demand.
Sales Another Big Problem.
To whom Is this tremendous volume
of cars to be sold? requirements YIN
account for many OF the cars dls-
posed of. Requirements in 1929 to-
tailed 100000 vehicles. according to
current estimates, but In the first six
months Of this year replacements ap-
pear to have accounted for over 1.2O0.-
600 cars. If the scrapping OF old cars
continues at that rate nearly 2S40o,000
cars will be accounted for by the
close OF the year.
On December 81 over 100000 cars
and trucks will be in use. The num-
ber scrapped in 1924 bids fair to be
far in excess of this year. The old
a car has been discarded, for dealers
declare that the inclination OF car
owners to sell to the junkman Is far
greater since the recent reductions In
prices. Since the prices OF new cars
have come down there is not the same
incentive TO fix up the old car. The
trade expects scrappage next year TO
reach 90 to 25 per cent OF the total
cars in use.
KNOWN executives in the business SAID
today: Replacement is the thing
which is going to make sales Of four
TO five million cars year very likely.
Cheap automobiles will be like paper
towels, figuratively speaking. We
will use them and throw them away.
"Only a year or so ago We thought
nothing of standing tor $500 de-
probation every year. NOW we can
buy Ford for $3.50. Why shouldn't
people buy a. new car every yeai Wnen
the cost new approxtmates the os,
probation they formerly had TO pa!
Increase In the population OF th.s
country and the normal growth In the
incomes Of the inhabitants are expect
ed to account for six hundred thou-
sand cars, without reference TO ex-
pansion in the use of the motor
vehicle. That expansion, according 70
many makers has not yet begun 20
reach its zenith. in this country.
In addition. there viii be strong
business. This, y ,ds is ooe estimated: I'M : i.
exports have been running at ABOUT
10 per cent of production this las.
summer. Lower prices are expecteo
to aid exports, as duties viii be iess
and in some instances shipping COSTS
will be reduced. . "