San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-10-07
ANTICS OF KING COTTON


modify markets within the last year or
sd have been blamed, and with plausl-
bic warrant, upon the federal govern
ments crop estimators. For example,
the total cotton production was estimated
before all the seed planted this year were
in the ground. Later the governments
experts did a little extra-territorial
guessing; they undertook not only to
measure the foreign. yield of wheat, but
also to gauge the effect which the antici-
pated increased production abroad
would have upon the marketability of the
e American crop. In both cases, of course.
{ prices performed acrobatic stunts"
S Then it seemed fair to ascribe the
fluctuations to simple incompetence on
Z the part of the experts" or to the un-
I scientific System" employed by the
E Department of Agriculture. No one likes
to think that possibly there was unto
ward method in the madness of the esti-
: majors. Yet it was obvious that if the
object had been to make killing" on
the exchange, an easier and more de-
pendable procedure than that available
] hardly have been found.
Now comes another misadventure in
! the cotton market. A few days ago
the price skyrocketed So to 100 points,
and few hours later crashes 155 to
1856 points, or as much as 1925 bale.
/. These violent fluctuations may have
been due to poor Judgment on the part
of spectators. There is no indication
to support any suspicion that they were
t. due to incompetence on the part of the
governments estimators. But here,
again, an abstract possibility, rather
than evidence of official manipulation,
presents itself.
4 At 10 o'clock in the morning of the
day upon which these fluctuations oc-
h CURED, the government issued a report
showing the number of bales ginned on
September 25. On the basis of these
figures, operators in the market calcu-
lated that the total crop would be small.
Therefore they bought for rise, and
the buying movement sent the price up
ward.
!. A few hours later, it seems, the gov
eminent issued another report, this one
giving an estimate of the total produc-
ton. The estimate upset the calcula-
tions which the operators had made on
the basis of the earlier report of one
days ginning; it indicated greater pro-
duction than the ginning figures had
seemed to forecast. Consequently the
price tumbled, and great was the crash
A wholesome-minded person could
not accept any mere suspicion that pos
sibly these fluctuations were officially
planned. Nevertheless, if the estimator:
desired to make killing" for them.
selves they could hardly find or devise
a more effectual method than that which
is presumably available 10 them. There
is absolutely no evidence that any Of
them took advantage OF his official pc.
I sition.
Nevertheless, one might well wonder
why, particularly in the light of the ap
parent disparity between them, the two
reports were not issued simultaneously
or jointly. The "big" operators in The
market are presumably canny men, anC
/ they calculated that the ginning repor
forecast a small estimated total produc
ton. Didn't the governments expert
discern disparity between the ginning
report and the final estimate? If the,
didn't. were they as expert as men il
their positions ought to be?
Another queer feature of the crop-esti