Evening star., 1923-10-06
ny ROGER w. BABSON.

Special Dispatch to The star
WELLESLEY HILLS. Mass. Octo-
bcr 6.--Business Will have a sidewise
tendency for the remainder of the
year.
Going back to August. 1929. we find
readjuStment of postwar imitation
half completed. with general activity
increasing and confidence running
high. AS result conditions improveds
and business picked up. In fact. the
MS above normal in the last week in
December. starting 1928 on a very
active and prosperous basis.
Being premature development.
however, such prosperity could not
last and after the first six months of
the current year We dropped back to
has given us two sudden changes
with decidedly mixed conditions
which have confused and upset the
calculations of a great many business
men.
Vast Increase In Production.
This boom during the first six
months of 1923 witnessed remark
able increase on the production of
basic and industrial commodities. The
volume increased 3S per cent from
June, 1922. to June, 1928. The output
of pig iron climbed from 2.361,0o0
tors 20 1929 0o0 tons from June. 1922.
to January. 1928, and to 3,66s,000 tons
in June 1929. Copper production in
creased from 95.222 600 pounds in
June. 1922, to 112.159,0o0 pounds in
nannary 1922 and oda to Fstreis
showed an increase from 45.559,000
barrels in June. 1922, to 51.467.ooO in
January. 1923, and to 61.364.O00 bar
rels in June. 1928. Boots and shoes
increased from 24,S31,000 pairs to S0.-
'74,00O pairs and 30,92G,o0o pairs for
these same respective months. Since
July. however. this activity has re-
ceded The United States Steel Cor
poration is operating about so per
cent of capacity today. Its untitled
orders are now only 100000 tons, as
compared with 6.3S6,00O in June and
100000 in March Of this year.
Cotton Mills CurtaII.
-'rhe cotton mills. which were run
ming large productions early in the
year, have shut down, but will prob
ab.y resume activities on another
price scale this fall. Automobile pro-
duction has been the greatest in his
-c-- but has exceeded demand at
present price levels. a score of price
cuts since July 15 have resulted. Tires
are in approximately the same condi-
tion. Price cutting indications are now
in evidence. Building materials rose
to peak in the late spring and de-
clined somewhat since. Lumber is
now selling at 13 per cent below April
quotations.
Wholesale commodity prices as a
group reached their peak in March of
: this year when the Babson Commod-
ity Index stood at 1S6. Its September
reading is 166, Il decline of 20 points,
or II per cent. Copper is selling at
about pre-war average. Paper has
declined slightly. Steel is selling at
about IL per cent below its recent
high. Seasonal strengthening in most
commodities may occur this fall, but
the long swing indication points to a
new lower price level.
Farmers In Better Shape.
The agricultural! situation is not as
bad as It has been painted during the
last few months. The price now
quoted for December delivery of cot
ton is 2Sia cents pound. This multi
piled by the indicative production of
l0.7Ss.000 bales gives an approximate
return to the cotton planter Of
*1,537. 100000. Last years production
was only 9.762, 069, at. price of 26
cents Il pound. yielding a total value
of sl.a69, ,069, 900. In other words, the
purchasing power of the. cotton