San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-01-14
BOND FORECA5T !.
|. IS No CLEARER
THAN WEEK AGO
New Issues at Attractiv,
Prices Are Easily
Sold.
OLD ONES DRAG ALONG
Clue to Future Prices May
Be Found in Money
Rates.
OLD ONES DRAG ALONG
BY BYRON SELLER.

Copyright. 1928, by Tho San Antonio Light
New York, Jan. 13.-The turn of the
year to which the financial forecasters
look forward has come and gone and to-
day the long range outlook is no more
clear than lr was a week ago.
The speculative markets continue to
absorb trading interest. The investment
markets are dull and unchanged. New
issues offered at attractive prices are
easily sold, but the old ones drag. Lib
erty bonds fluctuate over a very small
range. For day or two after the
French carried into effect their long
standing threat to use force upon a re-
Calcitrant Germany, spectators hest
tated, and franc exchange and French
bonds weakened, but the effect was
shOrt-lived. Sterling exchange con-
tinued phenomenally strong and the
American markets take their cue from
London.
Those whose profession 1t is to give
advice to stock Spectators say that
prices are going up. They put their
faith in charts and theories of the BUSH
ness cycle So far there has been
nothing to show that these gentlemen
. are wrong.
Can French Benefit?
Probably the most notable develop
ment of the week was the calm with
which the news of the French invasion
was received. The whole financial world
seems to have adopted a watchful watt,
ing policy. The question to be answered
is to what extent can the French bene-
fit financially from their adventure.
Praise or blame will 60 with the result.
1t may be that all our markets are
under the influence of some factor more
fundamental than even the European
situation. II So the clue will doubtless
be found in the course of money rates.
but so far no distinct trend has ap-
pcared.
If we turn for guidance to the econo-
mists, we find them predicting what
they call initiation. In guarded language
and with many qualifications they fore
cast advancing commodity prices and
credit expansion. Such conditions ac-
company what appears to be great pros
perity in business. This much is cer-
tain. Both manufacturers and mer-
chants look forward to the year without
misSivings.
The automobile people are particu-
larry optimistic. Plans are being made
for great expansion involving the largest
output in the history of the industry.
Ii is interesting to note that IS per cent
Of the 1922 motor car production was
divided among six corporations. Prob
ably the tendency will be more and more
toward consolidation as competition be-
comes sharper.
Good Business Anticipated.
The automobile equipment and part
manufacturers expect to share the good
times anticipated by the makers of cars.
The rubber and tire companies look for
word TO better things. The irregular
year has not been so prosperous, but
they think the turn has come. IL high
er prices for crude rubber will help any,
their hopes are well founded. The com
petition in the tire industry, however, is
even more severe than in the making
and selling of cars.
Copper and iron and steel prices are
strong to higher, Copper securities,
especially, are speculative faYoriteS. In
cidentally, the financing expected to ac-
company the Anaconda acquisition of a
controlling interest in Chile Copper, will
be severe test of the ability of the in
vestment market 20 absorb new securi-
ties, the new total of which, in this case
alone, is estimated as high as S130,O0O,-
600,
Railway car headings Of revenue
freight continue the heaviest in history
for this time of year. The future of the
railways depends on the treatment they
receive from Washington.
The influence Of politics must not Be
overlooked by those who scan the finan-
cal horizon.
Conflict on DISCOUNT Rates.
Much interest is taken in the attitude
the so-caued agricultural bloc viii show
toward the Federal Reserve system. The
ideas of some of the agricultural sena-
tors as to banking policies are at sharp
variance with those held by conservative
bankers. Probably the first conflict viii
come over the question of discount rates.
Members of the farm bloc in Congress
believe their constituents demand low
rates. Banking opinion is that If, any
tendency toward initiation should ap-
pear. rates will be raised. Il is an old
conflict and ends only one way. Too
much credit is Just as fatal as none az
all.
Even in periods Of prosperity not all
industries are equally alike. The prog
reSS Of invention sometimes Outweighs
economic considerations. For example.
We seem to be in a transition period as
far as transportation is concerned.
It remains to be seen how far the mo-
tor truck is going to be a real compete
tor of the railroad. Apparently The
truck has an enormous advantage IN
the matter Of terminal costs. Mean
while the Pennsylvania has announced
the curtailment OF local accommodation
service at various points throughout the
Middle-wesc because Of the competition
of the passenger automobile. On the
other hand, the electric galway people
assert that more persons rode on the
trolleys in 1922 than in 1921.
Il will not do % be too dosmatic
about these subjects.