The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1923-09-08
UNABLE.
T0FORECAST
QUAkES
Lines Of Research, However,
Bearing Upon Subject
Are Studied.
By FATHER FRANCIS A. TON
D0RF. 81. j..

are OIUOI0Os
By FATHER FRANCIS A. TON
DORF, s. j.,
Chief. Archaeological Service Georgetown
University.
(copyrieht, 1923, by Cosmopolitan
News ServicO.)
The question frequently IL asked
whether we are able to forecast the
possible occurrence OF earthquakes
as does the weather man the
weather. 80.
achievement is rated In terms OF Its
utility, and repeated attempts have
been made in the direction or pre-
dictions, which, however, have in
variably been connected with certain
premonitory phenomena.
Animals More Gifted.
It in the consensus Of opinion
among psychologists that animals
are gifted with a far keener sense OF
hearing than man, and when we
consider this fact It Ia not In the
least surprising to learn that the
brute experiences q sense OF pre-
lininary tremorS some seconds be-
fore his keeper. BY caprdcious or
fretful demonstrations expressive OF
his feelings he frequently heraids
warner Of impending disturbance
or danger with nicely; but unless
forecasts are based upon sound and
stable principles they would be un.
reliable, and at best the widest OF
guesses.
Has time proffered such principles?
The emphatic disavowal by Sieberg
one Of the foremost German seismoio
gIsts, should prove to the contrary
When claiming that the periodic &C
ton Of the sun ana moon upon the
magma ground mass or basis OF
roclx) Of the earth's interior can IN nc
wise be held accountable for earth
disturbances, and that predictions
thus based are but reckless rawlings
OF chance, he takes issue with the
picturesque theory OF Falb, who pre-
supposed the earth to contain q
liquid nucleus thinly incrusted.
Fields of Research.
Milne, however, seems more sangu'
Inc. He sees two fields Of research
bearing upon such predictions. The
first Is the displacements in the
vertical (the point directly over the
spot where the earthquake origin
ated) indicated by properly located
pendulums, especially in a direction
at right angles to a neighborina
anticline "a fold or arch Of rock
strata dipping in an opposite direc
ton to its axis following the fault
ing, disturbing effect reaching tho
epifocal regions those Immediately
above the seismic fOcus).
Another, In q study Of magnetic
variations in earthquake regions. II
10 accepted by physicists that stresses
generally alter the magnetization oil
iron and nickel. May not the same
results eventuate, following the bend
ing Of rock masses or the Quasi-rigid
magnetic magma? To date, magnetic
graphs have shown none but dyna
mical effects.
Repeated attempts have been
made to establish some connection
between magnetic and seismic dis
turbances with a view to predicting
the latter.
Magnetic Phenomena Recorded.
Yamasaki reports that for three
days prior to the great Japanese
quake of August 81, 1895, in North
Honshu, the magnetographs at Sen
dali Tokyo and Nagoya were VIC
lently agitated.
Nakamura chronicles like mag
netic phenomena preceding the
great Japanese earthquake on June
Is OF the same year.
Prof. Milne, the noted English
Seismologist, writes: These mag
netic disturbances may, Of course.
be regarded as mere condolences
but when we consider volcanic and
seismic activities as evidences OF
physical and chemical changes, TO-
gether with mechanical displace'
ments Of amagnetic magma. it Is
reasonable to suppose that they
should have at least a local influ
ence Upon magnetic needles"
Quite a few seismic observator4es
favorably located, have, within re-
cent years. added magnetographs to
their equipment with a view to
settling this question. In case a cor
relation is established, it is just
possible that a rule for earthquake
forecasting will be at hand.