Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1923-11-17
BY STUART p. WEST.
sreci.l nisnsteh "a tn. s..r


NEW YORK. November 1.-THE
matter Of primary interest at the
close OF the week is the probable
practical effect upon political and
financial conditions Of a break be-
tween England and France on tho
| question of European policy.
Nobody is able to put forth moro
| than a conjecture. but two things
! stand out clearly. The first Is that
such rupture would still further
indefinitely postpone the settlement
OF German reparations, and therefore
| indefinitely delay the restoration Of
Europe. The second is that the mar
j kets have not given the conventional
signs that would indicate fear Of
| serious consequences.
1t is true that there has been a
demorallzed decline in the foreign ex-
changes. carrying them to much the
that French and Belgian government
| securities have been under severe
pressure. But the other phenomena OF
| war scare have not appeared. A
violent upturn in wheat is one Of the
trouble. and wheat prices within the
| last day or two have been making
new lows for the season.
| The rule is that political disorders
abroad should cause lower prices for
| cotton, In that they suggest the pos
sibility OF q shutdown In the foreign
| demand. But cotton has kept on max
| ing new high records. Similarly, the
stationary tendency OF money rates
and the flrmness OF investment Sc
curities are two further bits OF tes-
timony that there Is not as yet any
| real uneas!ness.
Decline Of Exchanges.
The decline in the exchanges 10
duo to a number Of causes, the rela-
tive Importance Of which Is the sub.
ject Of widely differing opinion. The
sterling market has been peculiarly
sensitive because the political COM
lplications came at time when Great
Britain was preparing to meet the
war debt. when large. sums were que
on high priced American cotton ana
when the approaching election was
casting its shadow oyer nss All fan ns th,s
unfortunate combination 1t Is din-
cult to believe that the disturbing
Developments In European politics
s oga h s,srns eaS Sss s,ood up sl
along because the collection OF
Great Britain's % per cent of the
total indemnity assessed against Ger
many was not vital to British finance.
demnity money to balance its budget.
reduce taxes and begin payments to
the United States.
French Attitude May Change.
The position Is wholly different in
the case of France. Here the budget
Ii not being balanced except by a
constant piling up Of the already
huge internal debt. The theory Is
that these domestic loans will sooner
or later be paid off with German
inve aao @, 'ss pasieas
under the load in the meantime.
1t is confidence In this which causes
| French statesmen to stand out against
the united governments Of the world.
I and there seems to be no reason to
hope for any change In their atti-
tude unless the franc continues to
depreciate. increasing the already
| high cost Of living to the French It
would cause proper recognition Of
4 what has been demonstrated for the
last ten months, that It is impos sfble
to collect reparations at the point OF
tho bayonet, and that the true inter.
est of France, as Of the rest OF the
her feet.
| The more immediate aspect OF the
break In the exchanges which has
| been general all over Europe. Is that
the latest political crisis has made
holders OF foreign currencies feel
like selling out and transferring to
American dollars.
| Rival Views On Business Outlook.
| Our own security markets. while
more or less affected by the occur
rences abroad, have had their atten-
| tion fixed mainly upon the business
outlook at home. The recovery Of
I the first two weeks OF November put
| prices back to q reasonable level after
\ the depression OF the early autumn.
| The general run OF stocks were salts
| fed with this. and settled down to
series Of small fluctuations. the theory
being that 1t was well to walt until q
| better line could be obtained upon
! business conditions in 1924.
! On this subject there are two rival
| sets Of opinion. One believes that the
| satisfactory. and indeed very large,
volume Of general trade will be main
| tanned, because there is no prospect
OF wages coming down and employ
ment diminishing. hence no likeli-
4 hood OF q let-uD In the general buy