, 1923-10-07

WELLESLEY HILLS. Mass.
Oct e.-"Business will ave a side
wise tendency FOR the remainder of
the year" say Roger w. Babson-
In a statement issued today tho
statistician discusses developments
during the last nine months which
furnish an Illuminating and helpful
picture OF business for the executive
and investor who must Judge de-
velopments for the last quarter Of
the year.
Going back 10 August, 1922"
says Mr.. Babson. I'VE And readjust-
ment of postwar imitation half COM
pleted with general activity increas-
ing and confidence running high.
As a result conditions improved and
business picked up. In fact. the re-
oovery was 80 rapid that It carried
us above normal IN the last week in
December starting 1923 on a very
active and prosperous basis. Being
a premature development. however.
such prosperity could not last and
after the first six months of the
current year we dropped back to a
continuance of readjustment. This
has given us two sudden changes
with decidedly mixed conditions
which have confused and upset the
calculations Of q great many bust
ness men.
This boom during the FIRST six
months of 1929 witnessed a remark
able increase on the production Of
basic and Industrial commodities.
The volume increased 3s per cent
from June, 1922. TO June. 1929. The
output OF pig iron climbed from
1851. 900 tons to 3.229. 900 tons from
June, 1929. 10 January. 1923. and to
3,66s, 900 tons in June. 1923. Cop
per production increased from 3d.
2 1000 pounds in June. 1922. to 49,
$4,000 pounds in January. 1923. and
TO 12z,sss. 900 pounds in June. 1923.
Petroleum showed an increase from
$3.50 900 barrels in June 1929, TO
b1.4s7.oo in January. 1929. and to
81, 1854. 900 barrels in June, 1923.
Boots and shoes increased from "a
$4,000 pairs to 3O.774.O 900 pairs and
ao.e26. 900 pairs for these same re-
npectivo months. Since July. how
ever. this activity has receded. The
United States Steel Corporation is
operating about so per cent of capa-
city. today. Its untitled orders r
now only $50. 900 ton as compared
with e.3s6.o00 in June and 100000
in March of this year.
THE cotton mills which were run
ming large productions early in the
year have shut down but win prob
ably activities on another
price scale this fall. Automobile
production has been tho greatest in
history, but has exceeded demand
at present price levels. A score of
pricev cuts since July 15 have re-
suited. Tires are in approximately
the same condition, price cutting in
dications are now in evidence. Build
ing materials rose to n peak in the
late spring and declined somewhat
since Lumber is now selling at ID
per cent below April quotations.
wholesale commodity prices as
q group reached their peak in
March of this year when the Bah
son Commodity Index stood at 1856.
Its September reading is 16e. a de-
cline of twenty points or IL per
cent. Copper is selling at about
pre-war average. Paper has de.
cineo bnBHtiys oteol III eehinB NJ
about II per. cent below its recent
high. Seasonal strengthening In
most commodities may occur this
fall but the long swing indication
points to n new lower price level.
1.-THE agricultural situation" con-
tinued Mr.. Bsbson. "is not as bad
as 1t has been painted during the
last few months. The price now
quoted for December delivery Of
cotton is 2s5S cents a pound. This
multiplied by the indicative produce
ton Of 1o.7ss.000 bales gives an ap-
proximato return to the cotton
planter of 1851. $50 900. Last years
production was only 9,762.0 6 at n
price OF rs cents a pound yielding n
total value of 81. 26s. o69 900. In
other words. the purchasing power