Perth Amboy evening news., 1923-04-23
PRICES ARE GOING UP
Mr.. HASKIN SAYS
DAILY Letter by Frederic y. Haskio

WASHINGTON, April %. - Buy
now if you want totbuy cheap.
Prices of food, clothing and all
other commodities of common use,
which have risen slightly during the
past six months, and considerably
| during the past year., are bou TO
take a sharp upward turn and Will
in all probability stay up for many
months. 1t is thrifty practice to lay
in a stock of groceries OF buy a sun
of clothes now, rather than to a
a few months.
All of the Government agencies
which study prices seem agreed up
on this impending rise, although
none of their officials is willing to
be quoted as making predictions.
The Federal Reserve Board, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics and the
Department of Commerce all study
business conditions and prices, and
the men in these bureaus are per-
haps as well qualified to guess what
will happen as any in the country.
Among these price wizards may be
found two opinions. They all agree
that we are in for a substantial rise
In prices of all the commodities of
common use and especially of food
and clothing, but they differ some
what as to the probable extent and
duration of the rise. Some of the
Government men, and some bankers
as well, predict that we are at the
beginning of another period of in
| flation such as we witnessed in
1920, with great business activity
and very high prices and hat this
| period of Initiation will be followed
as in 1921. by q sudden decline in
both prices and activity with conse-
quent unemployment.
Prices are measured by index
numbers. Thus if the average of
wholesale prices for the year 1913
be taken as 100, the average whole.
sale price for 1919 was I'll, that for
1920 was 239, that for 1921 was
14S and that for 1922 was 157.
In a word, prices averaged more
than twice what they were before
the war in 1919, and reached a peak
in May 1920, being then nearly two
and one half times the pre-war aver
age. This was followed by a very
sudden decline, bringing the hard
times and unemployment which we
all remember.
This rapid rise of prices, with ex-
cessive business activity working on
inflated credit, followed by a period
of deflation and hard times, las
been the regular cycle of u econo-
mic existence for generations. The
Federal Reserve Law was supposed
to remedy it by providing a unified
-1rKNa1 90 nytr aNrodff cUQfam Rnl
Ii did not prevent a very typica
initiation and collapse in 1920 and
1921. Apologies for the Fedora
Reserve system a that this distar'
banee was due to abnormal post
war conditions and that the Fedora
Reserve Board now has the credt
facilities of the courEry SO well II
hand that 1t cannot be repeated
These optimists predict that th'
price index will rise slowly severa
points and will hold a relativel.
high level for a long tome - tina
there will be an increase In the cos
ofsliying and a steady, healthy bust
ness activity but no sudden tnfla
ton or deflatlon. Others predie
that prices will presently soar an
: will begin to decline rapidly agail
by the middle of the summer. Thi
= wisdom of the situation in eithe
case Is to do your buying now.
Prices Rose Steadily Last Year
: Prices showed q slow, steady ris
throughout 1922. In January u tina
s year the wholesale index was IA
in March 1t had risen to 147, in Ma
! 1t a 1853 and in July 165, Thes
are the figures of the Federal Re
lserve Board. Those of the Bureau c
Labor Statistics, which uses a slight
ly different system, show a lowe
: average but about the same moye
ment. During the last six month
Of 1922, the price level RENAME
: about the same. as it did in the fir
month of 1898, and no figures ar
yet available for February.
+, Nevertheless the prediction ths
this stable price level will be broke
by a sharp upward trend is mao
with great confidence by all the e.
Iperts on the basis of two facts. !
the first place, prices of most bas
I raw materials rose sharply in Febrl
airy, and in the second place. bus
ness everywhere shows constantly II
q ~creasing activity. with labor scar
9 ity.
Rises In the prices of basic ra
materials are sure to be followt