The Birmingham age-herald., 1923-05-07
DISGUISE [ N { IF. TRADE CYCLES |S.
 BECOMING MANIA.
Little Indication Of Initiation Seen-Strong Movement
 Against High Prices
By WALTER E. BROWN tEditor New York Commercially Special Dispatch to The AEe-Herald.

NEW YORK. May 6.-The country may be said to be absorbed in a nor bid interest in trade cycles. It has, in fact, become a mania in some dl- Jections and one hears little else but peaks and Impressions and probable sirflation and deflation. There is un- tioubtedly d menace of imitation at a time like this. but the danger of 1t is greatly lessened by recent eXpe- riences. and there is a determination on the part of the business CGmmu- nifty to prevent a S far d s possible any undue advance in pdiees of commodi- ties All that the students of busi- ness cycles have been able to dem onstratc is that peaks are followed by Impressions. sometimes major, sometimes minor. It is demonstrated, for example, that major business de- pressions have occurred on the aver age every 10 years and eight months, On that showing We have another nine years to go before worrying about the next depression. But when this is further analysed, it is discov- cred that the maximum interval is IS years and six months and the minimum six years and six months, so that even at the minimum we ought tC be good for another five years. Even on such a showing there is rotning much to worry about at present. but as a matter of fact, it demonstrates nothing at all One might as well try to predict what the weather will be for the next six months, on basis of what 1t averaged for 20 years previously. We Ccca sbonally get severe winters ot extremely hot summers. but with out any feference to regularly re curing intervals We experience peaks and Impressions in business without the slightest reference to sny rule or formula.
 
 Conditions Changed.
 We can, however, read certain signs, which should give warning of H change in conditions. Credit in- flatiCn is sure sign. but the char acter of the imitation must not be mistaken There has. for instance, been an attempt to make capital out iof the fact that rediscounting has Increased somewhat through the federal reserve banks of the country. The remarkable fact is that the vol ufne is as small as it is, and it can amount to many times it's present volume. without causing apprehen- sion. There may be an undue in crSase in operating costs CT of plant capacity, or of actual production. but mono of these are apparent as yet to a degree that should cause anxiety
 If there should be sharp advances in commodity prices accompanied by sharp advances in money rates 1t is a pretty good indication that it is time tC take in sail.
 How little reliance can be placed upon the theory of trade cycles is revealed by the statement of John Moody, one of the keenest of market observers. Every complete cycle" he says, consists of trade recovery, boom times, general liquidation or contraction, and business depression. Aside from having these four con- ditions or parts trade cycles show the greatest variation in almost every feature Even these four parts do not imply uniformly since they mean only that business must alter nate from good to bad, and back again because it can do nothing else. A cycle is merely this inevitable al teration, and it is an utterly hopeless task to try to dissect it and to dis cover some rule of thumb by which to tell exactly what is going to hap pen next. Probably no two trade cycles or parts thereof were ever alike, for in fact, any business situa- tion is the sum total of vast num- Der of ever changing factors
 Fear Radical Element.
 Another source of nervousness is the fear of hostile legislation on the