Perth Amboy evening news., 1923-04-06
LONG RANGE WEATHER

Daily Letter by Frederic j. Haskin

WASHINGTON, April 5.--The
pastor of the Fifth Baptist church
will be able TO announce on Christ
mas Eve what kind of weather the
Sunday school will have for its pic
MIC on the following Fourth of July,
II the science of weather forecast
ing continues to advance with the
leaps and bounds of the last few
years. The meteorologists of the
government have SO far perfected
their science that they can forecast
the weather for longer and longer
periods and 1t is regarded as well
within the realm Of probability that
they ultimately a predict, with a
fair amount of certainty, what the
weather will be on a given day two,
three or even five years in advance.
Too casual a consideration might
lead n to think of the weather
as relatively unimportant in human
affairs. A rainy day may be an an
noyance or a hot spell merely
something to try the temper; a cold
snap in the winter something to add
to the riches of the coal barons. The
fact is that weather has as pro-
found an effect on human affairs as
any other phenomenon of life. BY
determining climates, it guides the
development of races and establishes
the products of the soil. To say,
tits q nice day." is to take up one
of the most important subjects IN
the world.
Weather ~forecasting is compare
lively a new science. Prof. Cleve-
land Able, an American, was the
first important meteorological. Like
all pioneers in scientific work, he
was scoffed at. Some people thought
~forecasting the action of the ele-
ments to be irreligious.
When money ome into any equa-
ton, more serious attention is paid
to it. Prof. Able interested Lloyds,
the great British marine insurance
establishment, in his work. He dem
onstrated to the satisfaction OF Off
Gals of that institution that he could
forecast storms. His forecasts were
first used to assist Lloyds in fixing
rates of marine insurance on ships
setting out to sea. If Prof. Able
forecast fair weather, a lower rate
would be quoted. The forecast OF
a storm shot the rate up and some
times saved the company thousands
of dollars. Later the learned pro-
lessor helped found a United States
Weather Bureau. AS early as 1869
he inaugurated a series of weather
reports for the Cincinnati Chamber
of Commerce.
To many skeptics he became a sort
Of national joke. His reports would
read, as many weather reports do.
to this day: Probably rain" or
probably COLDER From this he
gained the sobriquet "Old Probable
which stuck to him for years.
Professor Able was one of the
first scientists to understand the i'm
portance OF weather forecasting, but
in recent years new importance has
been added to the science by the de-
velopment Of long time predictions.
To forecast the weather twelve or
twenty-four hours in advance is inn
portant; to forecast such meteoro-
logical phenomena six months or a
year in advance becomes of trans
cendental importance.
Value TO Cotton Planters
It will be seen that If the cotton
planters of the United States can
know now what the weather condi-
tons will he for the next growing
season, they can be guided in their
preparations for planting, tilling and
harvesting. If the cotton exchange
and the markets of the world can
know now that conditions of wealth
er will be, they can gauge the crop
almost to a bale, and, by relating
the new harvest to existing stocks
and rate OF consumption, they car
tell what the price should be now
and will be six months or a veal
ahead. The same is true Of wheat,
corn and other crops; ever of cattle
and meat, livestock generally.
The commercial importance O.
this is recognizable instantly. ThesC
long range forecasts would in al
probability, accomplish what parlia,
ments have been trying for years Il
do-that is, take the speculative ele'
ment out Of trading in foodstuffs. /
knows what the weathe.
conditions will be throughout tn
growing season and thereby can &C
~curately Judge the volume of tn
harvest, the gambling element
eliminated. The market, forecas
months in advance, would be stabil
lied and the hurries, the ups ant
downs OF price which bankrupt tn
| dealers and often in the end squeez
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