San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-02-04
STOCKS FIRM;
TRADE SHOWS
IMPROVEMENT.
Investors Refuse to Worry
Over Ruhr Possibili-
ties.
BUSINESS is BETTER
January Shows Decided Ad-
vances Over De-
cember.
BUSINESS IS BETTER
nv STUART p. WEST.

BY STUART p. WEST.
Copyright, 1929 by The san Antonio Light |
New York, Feb. Sat no time dur
ing the three weeks since the French
started their venture into the Ruhr have
the security markets of the world shown |
any real uneasiness They have seen
franc exchange get down to practically
the lowest on record and French and
Belgian government bonds drop below
ali previous low prices. Yet at no stage
has there been the slightest sign that
investors were becoming worried or
even that the usually sensitive specu- |
latiye community was disturbed.
Trade Conditions Sound.
The explanation is that trade condi- |
tions in America and in Great Britain |
are 80 sound and promising that they |
have outweighed, in the minds OF Sc
curity owners, every other cOnSidera- |
ton. At the same time the markets |
have steadily refused TO take sensa- |
tional view of European happenings.
They have looked upon the Franco-Ger-
man position as purely an ECONOMIC
struggle. the outcome of which could
not be foreseen. yet which offered no
serious indications for the peace of the
world.
They have contemplated the possible
failuPe of the Lausanne conference,
have disliked the split between the Eng
lish and French government in their
attitude toward Turkish affairs, and
they have even visualiZed the cOntlng-
eney of a clash between England and
Turkey over the possession of the Mosul
oil fields. But even here it has been
difficult to believe that the Angora gov
crnment would go to war with the odds
SO overwhelmingly against it. In con-
sequence this possibility has not en-
tered very seriously Into the market
movements.
Ruhr Seizure Discounted.
Toward the close of the present week
II looked as if both in New York and
London security prices were commenc-
ing TO break away from the European
uncertainties altogether. Evidently the
conclusion had been reached that moth
ing worse was likely to occur than had
already happened and that IN their
weeks of waiting, the markets had dis
counted the complications growing out
of the French seizure of the Ruf~ coal
fields. At ali events the share lisa ap--
peared to be getting out OF its rut ana
responding no longer in negative, but
in n positiye manner to the flood OF
cheering trade news.
January Business Improved.
A survey of American business con-
ditions shows that January was even
n better business month than December
and yet December broke all records Tor
activity in the pre-hOliday season that
had been made in recent years. Among
the major accomplishments last month
were a further increase in bituminOus
coal production to the enormous aver
age aggregate of 100000 tons per
-,-,-iNyeek. a further expansion in steel out
nut well above so per cent OF capacity
and in some instances as high as ~
per cent and important progress today
and more profitable conditions as re-
CARDS prices in the steel, oil, copper
and smelling industries.
Reckless Bidding Absent.
Speculation on the stock exchange il
exploiting these developments has 81
far been quite moderate. Ihere mas
been no such reckless upbidding O
prices as occurred in the spring anl
again in the midsummer OF w.
Where stocks have moved forward the!
have done so gradually in response 4
the legitimate impulse of good trad
news. Hence the present position il
the market may be looked upon as SCUM
and not likely to experience any. con
siderable setback unless things abroa
take an unexpected bad turn.
Money Rates Held Down.
An advance in money rates nigh
ALREADY have come about from such e1
mansion as has occurred in cOmmercii
demands. But what has stood agains
sucf n result is the abnormal stock {
gold that has piled up in the cOuntr
during the last four years. How tn
worked 10 keep down the rate
money interest is indicated by the ta'
that with commercial transaction
steadily mounting and wholesale prize
ON the increase, the federal reserve rat
nov stands at 76.9 per cent where's
little more than a month ago it stoc
at 71.3.
Speculation Affects Exchange.
Coming now to the situation abroa
much difference of opinion exists ov
the Significance of the decline
French bonds and in French exchan
early in the week and their subseque
recovery. Undoubtedly speculation b
played an important role in both ma
tets. accelerating the selling movemel
especiaIly in the case of the COVER
,nent loans. On the other hand, a pc
erfuI contributing influence to the {
nreciation in franc exchange is, th
since the Germans ceased anything
renaYations account, the French SC
ernment has again had to borrow hei
;lv from the Bank of France. The
horrowings in the week ending i
THURSDAY amounted to 100000
francs and had TO be met by a C
responding increase in paper note G.
repcv. SO long as France is faced "
her present deficit, unless she turns
- unlikely. 20 new internal loans,
flation of note circulation will be
eyitable.
This initiation will hardly be avOiC
unless France meets with full succ
~ her efforts to collect indemn
through seizure Of the German c
mines. Partial success would not S
f;re because in that event the Frel
hndget would not balance and the de
;ency could not be continually I
either by new loans or by increa
t.xatiop, France would have 10 ado
even Il on a reduced scale. the desr
sfe e-.pedient of unlimited paper c
rency expansion which has wrecked
enrrencies Of the old central empire