Evening star., 1923-12-31

DINA and Texas had, a condition
ABOVE the ten-year average. All
below that average, as in the case of
AlaDama, to ten points below, as in
the case of Arkansas. The very first
stages, therefore, had established a
handicap in three. definite particu-
lars, almost vital to n good yield
an early start, a large acreage and a
| good stand for the plant. .
nature not only did nothing during
the remaining six months to over
come the poor start, but she added
wrung from the heart of the south
ern planter that despairing cry of
job: For what is my strength that
] can hold or what is my end that
L should keep patience?"
First came a drought in the west
belt, when for six weeks hardly a
drop of rain fell over a vast stretch
of cotton lands in Texas and Okla
homa. Then came persistent rains in
sections east of the Mississippi river,
instead of. the warm. dry weather
necessary for proper growth and cul-
tivation. Some conception of the
season can be obtained from the fact
that throughout the entire seven
months there were barely half a
dozen favorable weekly summaries
regarding weather conditions in the
cotton states issued by the weather
bureau. The other twenty-five were
poor
1t was the latter part of August
before rains came to end the
drought in the west and then they
never seemed to stop.N There is no
eNaggeration in the statement that
weather conditions surrounding the
picking season proved the most dis
astrous in the entire history of
American cotton culture. Rainfall
reached flood proportions, and in
both oklahoma and Arkansas rivers
[
juring the grade, but washing cot
ton from the fields and carrying it
downstream in many instances. From
the middle of April to late October
| the record is chapter after chapter
| of such vicissitudes as seldom, if
| ever. occur in single growing sea-
son. It seemed as though every
known menace had been assembled
in final effort to overwhelm the
grower and Illustrate his attempts
to produce a good crop of cotton.
|. Trade Menaced.
1t was not until September that
the world became aroused TO the
menacing nature of the situation
| confronting the trade. At the close
on July 80, 1923. of the so-called cot
ton year, which begins with August
American cotton had been reduced
to between 100000 and 100000
bales. Secretary Hester of the New
Orleans exchange, whose figures are
guide in the matter of statistics,
! placed reserves att slightly over
2,50o,0 900 bales. The Department of
Commerce. however, estimated the total
alightly over 100000 bales, includ-
ing linters But either amount rep
resented one of the smallest re-
serves on record and reduction of
nearly 100000 bales from the
$500, 900 carry-over of only two years
previous.
For these two seasons of 1921 and
| 1922 consumption had been going on
at the rate of 12le million bales per
annum and owing to underproduc-
ton raw material had been take n
from the reserve supply. If the world
were to be clothed and the season
crop only a short one, what must be
the inevitable effect on prices? Where
was the cotton coming from to run
months, until the South could make
! another attempt at producing "a
crop? Not out of reserve already
exhausted by two years STEADY drain
to apply DEFICIENCIES of production.
The realization OF crop failure point
ed to but one outcome, namely, a sup.
ply and demand problem so serious that
ali adjectives known to the INDUSTRY
became weak and colorless,. Few
men are now alive to recall that
England closed because there was no
cotton to feed the machinery. There
have developed from time to time
famines in some stricken corner or
its thousands of victims. But
world cotton famine mas been un-
known since the civil war.
Confronted with the possibility of
conditions SO unusual as to find those
engaged in the cotton business utterly
unframed by previous experience to
cope with them, the first and immedi-
ate results came in violent effort to
reverse operations entered into ear
lier in the season. Instead of the new
ing influence on prices. as was the
case In wheat, and is the normal ex-
perience of commodity exchanges
during the marketing period, all indi-
sellers market. Instead OF weight
being felt from the new crop bring
ing about q condition where there
were many sellers. and buyers could
purchase at !, their convenience, 1t
rush Of buyers and a demand greater
than the supply. Out of such a situa-
ton, economic laws. pointed but one
course, that is, pricess higher and
higher. until the very expense In,
volved in obtaining raw material
would compel a stoppage OF sptndles
Report Boosts Price.
When the September report from
Washington .was received prices We're
around "a cents. In less than three
months they were 81 cents ant Z, ! ug gdes der
means large profits for speculative
interests that were fortunate enough
to- foresee the>fise and reap rewards
OF their astute vision. But the situa-
tion this year was in no sense ordi-
nary. 1t IS probably no exaggeration
to state that outside of an extremely
limited number Of individuals specu-
lative profits as a result OF this SEN
sarional rise ih, lin qu1tations nera1 can ns
impression prevails that London fur
nished the heaviest speculation and
a large amount of money has been
made by various, financial groups in
that quarter
Last fan the advance of 6 cents,
from 81 to 81 cents in six. weeks. proved
generally profitable to both northern
and southern interests. That rise in
1922 occurred under what might be
termed the rules of the game. Mills
had been able to secure over 100000
bales under % cents pound. and with
! the bulk of the crop sold or con-
tractive FOR speculation. That the
market should start upward in
October was all in accord with the
best American traditions.
But this year operators started
| with the very serious handicap of
having guessed wrong. A large num-
ber were busily engaged in extri-
eating themselves from a position
that daily grew more threatening.
Instead of plenty of cotton, there was
going to be a scarcity. They were
thus compelled to shift from a short
to a long position. That took time
and all the while the market rose. 1T
, advanced 2 cents. In few days.
Earthquake Stimulates Market
Some had no sooner started opera
tions. for'rising values than the Japa-
nese tragedy appalled, the world.
Lines of speculative holdings were re-
DO hsff 90 90 :