The Washington times., 1923-07-13
8O-CENT WHEAT
LIKELY, SAYS
AUTHORITY
Thomas T. Hoyne Ayers Over
Production Means Even
Less Than Dollar.

speculation.
Written for Cosmopolitan News Service.
CHICAGO, July 12.-How is the
farmer going to get a dollar a
bushel for his wheat? His cost of
production will average close to
that, and if he is obliged to sell his
wheat for much less, every bushel
he sells means a loss
The answer to the question Is a
disagreeable one. There is no rea-
sonable prospect that the farmer can
get a dollar for his wheat, or even
a price that comes reasonably close
to dollar.
Recently when President Harding
was in Kansas a farmer figured out
for him that an acre of wheat
which yielded eighteen bushels cost
$14.S0 to produce, a cost per bushel
of 80 cents. However, eighteen
bushels to the acre is way above
what the average winter crop now
being harvested will run. Last year
the winter wheat crop averaged
1879 bushels. This year 1t Is likely
to average something over fourteen
bushels.
But although only fourteen bush
els may grow on an acre instead Of
eighteen, the cost of production is
not very much less. At figures
given to the President, production
Of fourteen. bushels would mean an
expense to the farmer of about
81 .05 a bushel. The only saving OF
cost on an acre that raises only
fourteen bushels under the cost OF
an acre that raises eighteen is In
harvesting and hauling.
On the basis Of September wheat
selling at 99h cents in Chicago,
the farmer in Illinois would get
only IS to 90 cents a bushel, allow
ing a reasonable profit for the
middleman. On Wednesday prices
on the farm, based on bids for
wheat at the gulf were: In Okla
homa only IS to rs cents: in Cen
trail Kansas the best bid was IS
to rs cents; in Eastern Kansas the
bid was II to IS cents.
The prospects of the farmer get
ting a better price between now and
fall is very poor. The Government S
estimate this month of the size of
the winter wheat crop places it at
$50, zoo, 900 bushels. There is more
likely to be an under estimate than
an over estimate. 1t is 5000, 900
bushels larger than the Govern
ment's estimate was in June.
Spring Crop Big.
On top of this will come the crop
Of spring wheat which in another
week, or ten days at the outside,
= oil 10 1F a
from the black rust. Already the
larger than the Governments July
estimate of 100000 bushels.
Furthermore, Canada is raising a
bumper crop which may run as
high as 100000 bushels. Crops
of wheat abroad are turning out
far better than was expected and
export demand for United States
wheat is miserably weak.
1t is a bitter thing to say, but
all things considered, it looks as
if wheat easily might sell in this
country down to 80 cents before the
middle of November.
Danger from insects, drought and
rust, which early in the spring were
supposed to be likely, because of
weather conditions, have all but dis
appeared so far as the spring wheat
is concerned. The harvesting of the
winter wheat is showing larger
yields and much higher quality than
was expected. This grain is test
| ing from sixty to sixty-one pounds
to the bushel in one section of the
belt after another.
U. S. Interference.
To make matters worse the Gov
eminent interference with grair
| exchanges has so reduced specula
ton that now, when the new wheat
is just beginning to be hedged anc
when speculative buying is mos
needed to stabilize the market, il
is lacking. Since the Capper
Tincher law was declared constitu
tional by the Supreme Court 'of the
United States, wheat has declined
steadily some 26 cents a bushel
AS this law, it was insisted by it,
proponents, would prevent the de
cline in the price of grain it,
worthlessness in this respect has
been conclusively demonstrated.
Never since civil war days Wher
the Government interfered with
speculation in gold, has there beer
such q positive demonstration Of the
error Of interfering witt. speculation
in its unhampered fulfillment of its
natural economic function.
Cooperative holding Of wheat will
not put the price up. Farmers are
facing over production and artificial
attempts to rectify the results will
only bring heavier losses to holders
n nd