The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1923-07-03
TRADE SFUTURE
PUZZLE To.
LEADERS
Opinion Divided as to Con-
tinued Prosperity, or Depres-
sion-Questions involved.
BY w. 8. COUSINS.
Copyright. 1928. by Cosmopolitan
News Service.)


Copyright. 1928. by Cosmopolitan
News Service.)
NEW YORK, July 3.--Is Ameri-
can business preparing to turn into
nose-dlve in the last four months
Of the year?
Will production and consumption
Of commodities continue at the high
rate established in the spring CT
this year, but since that time re-
liquished in some important de-
velopments Of American Industry
Or will trade and business follow
a course somewhere between these
extremes, but with SUFFICIENT
activity to insure the continuance
Of the prosperity which the Ameri-
can people now enjoy?
These are the questions which
are engaging the attention OF bust
ness and industrial leaders as the
country enters the second half or
1928. In order to answer them in
diligently they must make diligent
inquiry, not only within the par
ticular industry in which they are
engaged, but also into the general
financial and industrial situation OF
the country as q whole.
The various ramifications Of trade
and business are SO closely related
that prosperity or distress in one
important department are quickly
reflected in others, whether their
relationship be intimate or remote.
Opinions Of Leaders.
In the opinion Of a score or more
of recognized leaders of national
business, before whom the above
questions were placed this week,
there is little danger of any gen.
eral deviation from the present rate
of production Of essential commodi-
ties.
They are almost unanimous in
placing the emphasis on essentials,
many of them believing that over
Indulgence in articles of luxury has
been one OF the principal errors OF
the past two years.
Those who think that present
prosperity. is soon to give place to
a season Of business reaction point
out. that In some departments of
national industry, production is
running ahead of consumption; that
prices Of farm products, the main
support Of the largest section Of
our population. are far too low;
that wage increases win halt acti-
vities in building and manufactur-
ing; that foreign markets, which
provide the only possible outlet for
our surplus production, are failing,
as witness the decrease in exports,
and that credit and currency in
flation is still q real menace to the
country.
Point to Stock Market.
If anything more were needed
to confirm their conclusions, they
point with conviction to the stock
market, which has been pursuing
an extremely irregular and erratic
course for nearly three months,
with prices retracing their steps to
the lowest levels, in many cases
lower than at any time since 1921.
While the stock market has al
ways been regarded as the in
fallible guide to future develop
ments in finance and business, 1t |
at times extremely obscure, and
capable of Interpretation only by
the most skillful observers. The
chief problem in the stock market
Is in distinguishing between the So
called major and minor movements
Of prices.
Those who look for a long-con.
tinued period of prosperity point
to the strong position of the bank
ing institutions; the comparatively
small inventories carried by both
mercantile and manufacturing con-
Germs: the present high rate of
earnings Of the railroad companies.
the strong cash position of the big |
manufacturing concerns, due to the !,
large profits which they have made |
during the past two years; the |
gradual elimination of unemploy-
ment and the general feeling of |
confidence freely expressed by the
men who stand at the head Of the
great producing enterprises Of the
country.
These confirmed optimists are In
no way discouraged by the situa-
ton In the stock market, believing
1t to reflect temporary uncertainty
rather than forecasting a depression
in business.