Evening star., 1923-01-21
BY OLIVER OWEN KUHN.

UROPE'S political kettle con-
r tinues to brew noxious nos
trums. But through the CLOUDS
of nationalistic steam hVe
facts are becoming distinct. FROM
any one Of the five may emerge some
solution of the extremely dangerous
mess. created by the French occupa-
tion of the Ruhr.
First. The French are coming to
realize that occupational measures,
In so far as producing adequate
recompense for defaulted reparations
payments, are producing nothing.
either in the way of coal or money.
Second The German government,
fearing civil strife, possibly leading
to eventual destruction of the reich
by its enemies in the period of eco
nonic and financial suffering that
will come through further opposition,
Is ready to deal with the allies.
Third. 1t is reliably reported that
both the German and French govern
ments will attempt rapprochement in
the next two weeks, with the view OF
settling present troubles.
Fourth. Unless both Germany and
the French take some steps to end
situation that is endangering the
Ieace and stability of the whole or
Europe Great Britain will withdraw
openly her support to the French in
order to hasten complete failure OF
the Poincare plan and TO further the
Bonar Law scheme of sensible repa-
rations schedules"
Fifth. Italy. weakening in her sup
port of the French, will demand ad-
justment of the present problems. If
she gains no support from France she
will throw her influence with Great
Britain and begin direct negotiations
with the Germans looking toward a
separate agreement between these
countries.
French Policy SO Far Fails.
1t cannot be questioned that Poin-
care must be somewhat chagrincd a t
the failure of the French moves up
10 date. a failure of which many
French financiers and statesmen are
already taking cognizancc. The pol
icy of collection by might so far has
done nothing but solidify the Ger
man intent to resist the French oc-
cupation and industrial commissions
in the Rhineland.
The French counted upon the sup
port of the German workers them
selves. Though there may be at
tempts to curtail production. the
nearly half million workers in the
Ruhr undoubtedly will work to some
extent in order to obtain food, but
the temper of the workers has grown
increasingly intolerent under dicta-
tion from Berlin, on the one hand. and
pressure that is being brought upon
them from various socialistfc and
communstic labor organizations in
various parts of Europe.
With curtailed production the
French cannot expect to obtain suf-
fcient supplies to maintain the oc
cupational forces. not to speak of
obtaining sufficient funds to make up
for the deficit in reparational coal
deliveries.
The French have sought to fire the
Imagina ton of the workers against
the industrialists of the Ruhr and
make II appear that the French, and
rot the mine operators. are their real
friends, but this thesis has been stout
ly resisted in every quarter. The
French are preparing to COURT mar
tial the industrial leaders with the
danger of making them martyrs in
the eyes of Germany as whole.
There has been constant conflict be-
tween the moderate policies desired
by the committee of economic experts
sent to the Ruhr to insure coilectlons
and the military authorities. How
ever the Ruhr today is ruled by the
case the French will be forced to
aSply military measures in order to
get results.
Skepticism ns to Outcome.
Even the extension of territorial
eeIzures to the full extent of the Ruhr
basin has failed to sway the Germans
from their adamant stand. With this
failure little remains to be done cX-
cept to extend military effort to Ber-
lin or cut off completely the rest of
Germany from Ruhr supplies. and let
coal famine and industrial paralysis
with consequent hunger do the work
that French measures have failed to
DO. But there is skepticism as to how
far this can be effective, inasmuch
as the Germans already are buying
tremendous amounts of coal in Eng
land to keep industries in unoccupied
sections working. 1t is expected that
the Germans likewise will resort TO