Perth Amboy evening news., 1923-06-23

WELLESLEY HILLS Mass, June
23.-Roger w. Babson was question
ed today as to a concrete analysis of
the business barometers that deter
mine the degree of our future pros
perity.
Business and stock market have
been suffering from psychological
depressions during the past six
weeks" says Mr.. Babson. MANY r
expecting a repetition of the decline
of 1920 in general activity, while
others are certain that security
values are going to pieces. 1t is not
at all hard to gather such impros-
sions If you listen to current COM
ment and market gossip. If we turn
to the actual facts on the situation,
however, we find things are not as
bad as reported. Let US examine the
leading barometers of business.
st. PRICES: Commodity prices
climbing rapidly reached a point al
most zoo per cent. above pre-war
levels before they broke in 1920.
Their present position is only IS per
cent. above normal and this level has
been reached by a moderate, orderly
rise. Farm products are but 10 per
cent. above the 10 year average
1900-1910 compared with the infla-
ton of ESQ per cent. made in 1920.
There is nothing dangerous in the
commodity situation. There is GER
tainly no ground for fear of another
decline such as we suffered during
the year beginning 1920.
az. FAILURES: Contrary to
popular belief a minimum of failures
is a bad sign, while a large number
of failures show that business is
cleaning house and points to better
times ahead. During 1919 and early
in 1920 the percentage of business
failures ran at the lowest level
reached since they have been re-
corded. Buth number and the liza
bilities of failures at present are
cunning heavy. This, together with
the liquidation of the past two years
is pretty good evidence that funda-
mental business. conditions are grow
ing more sound.
"3. CREDIT CONDITIONS: At
the peak of the recent boom the Ma
tiona1 Bank had over $12,415, O00, 900
out on loan. Today they are loaning
a little more than Sill, 500, 600, 600. In
1920 they were borrowing heavily
from the Federal Reserve Banks and
were straining all reserves to the
limit. Whereas their discounts were
$2,S27,000,0 900 in 1920, they are to-
day borrowing but $3.50, 900, 900
Money is plentiful. Reserves are
strong. There is no danger that
banks will be forced to cut down
loans and slow up business in order
to protect their reserves.
~ IMPORTS: Though not as
~.An+ -. - mon 49,. -
gaining ground very rapidly. For
hi immediate outlook this is an I'M
favorable factor. From a long swing
point of view these purchases abroad
constitute a favorable factor. Event
ually Europe "a pay interest and
principal only in goods. Increasing
imports at this ii. Re tend to relieve
n strain on Europe, which is the
weakest link in the business chain
today.
"5. EXPORTS: The export stu
alton, though better than 1913 or
1915, is not particularly favorable.
Although better than last year
should still classify the export situa-
ton as n of the few unfavorable
conditions.
Sc. MCc+EY RATES: A bust
hOSS mai Call uOW lIlldLCe Ills n6GQS
at 5 per cent. compared with as high
as 8 per cent. which ruled during a
port of 1920. 1t looks as though
plenty of money can be available on
this basis for some time to come.
". TRANSPORTATION: The
situation is more favorable than II
has been for several years. In 1926
there was a a shortage which
mounted to a peak in October. De,
mands at that time called for 147,,
600 cars than were available. Today
we are breaking all records in thu
number of IA loadings. The short
age of last fall has been PRACTICAL,
eliminated. There should be no i'm,
mediate serious congestion of freight
SO. WAGES: Wages have shown
some advance. particularly in tn,
building trades. This is due Target!
to immigration restrictions. Wages
in general, however, are much be
low the 1920 peak. Certainly there
is less inefficiency than there was a
that time. Any increases in cos
due to wage advances will, of course
handicap business.
"9. STEEL PRODUCTION: TIL,
untitled tonnage in the United StateI
Steel Corporation now stands at z,
600, 900 tons compared with II, 900,
900 in 1920. The present level ii
j very satisfactory and shows tina