Perth Amboy evening news., 1923-07-03
FIGURING A WET INTO
THE WHITE HOUSE
DAILY Letter by Frederic J. Haskin

WASHINGTON, July 3:-Mid-
summer is always a good season Tor
the political dopesters. Events,
which in politics are elections are so
far in the future that ~forecasting is
not especially hazardous, for by the
time things happen nobody will re-
member, or even be interested in re-
calling whether the gusses risked at
this time were good Dr. bad.
Just now the political weather
prophets are having a particularly
enjoyable time. They have so much
material to work with. Straw votes
are being taken which indicate that
old Vox Populi MAJ have something
important and altogether out of the
ordinary to say next year. Almost
every day Henry Ford is or is not
running for President, or has de-
cided to be a Democrat, a Republican
or an independent, and there is
no discounting the general interest
that is being taken in Ford's politi-
cal ambitions and intentions. So
many conflicting statements have
been attributed to the Detroit manu-
| facturer that one keen wit has said
that Mr.. Ford's reply to reiterated
questions as to his plans is Yes, /
have no political ambitions" Which
is good ioT not Weather VI any oliASA
season.
Then President Harding is on his
way to Alaska on the longest Swing
around the circle" a president has
ever made, and is delivering a series
of speeches that necessarily must
have a far reaching political effect.
The dopesters must take up each of
those addresses and figure out just
what it will do toward renominating
and reelecting Mr.. Harding, or, to
take the other angle, how it will
encompass his defeat.
While the President is busy the
members of his official family are
not idle. Secretary of War Weeks
finds occasion to make a speech in
which, among other things, he takes
occasion to say harsh things about
the primary system, and that opens
up again the bearing of presidential
primaries on next years struggle.
That calls for a lot of ~analyzing and
explaining and the boys with h
facile lead pencils get busy again.
And of course there is the wet and
/ dry question with the latest develop
ments bearing on the Eighteenth
| Amendment and the Volstead Law.
When the New York legislature pas-
sed the bill repeating the State en-
forcement law everybody has a
strenuous thirty days guessing
whether Governor Al. Smith would
approve the bill and what effect 1t
would have on his political fortunes.
The Governor signed the repeater,
and shortly went on a trip to Chi
cargo and French Lick. Whereupon
the guessing had to be done all over
again with variations.
EIecting n Wet President
But one of the best things that has
been done in the ~forecasting line has
/ been a computation that undertakes
to show where a wet candidate can
| get the electoral votes necessary to.
land him in the White House. No
one stands sponsor for this forecast.
It is rather hazily ascribed to those
who are Interested in Governor
| Smiths projected candidacy. But 1t
is nevertheless interesting because it
presents some concrete hgures-the
hrst that have been brought forward
except the tabulations in the straw
votes that have been taken.
This reckoning Is based on the as
sumption that the wet candidate will
be the Democratic nominee. 1t does
not say that the Democratic nominee
will be wet, for that would be to in
vite serious trouble with William
Jennings Bryan, who might institute
Injunction proceedings to restrain
9o1y from disseminating a state
ment of that kind.
But it does assume hat If either
of the major parties does name a
candidate who is for the repeal or
modification of the Volstead Law it
will be the Democratic, and that is
not such a violent assumption in
view of the fact that the only avow-
edly wet candidates are in that par
ty. From that hypothesis, therefore,
the forecaster takes 1t for granted
that the wet candidate would get the
electoral votes OF all those Southern
States that always go Democratic.
That too, it is generally admitted, is
not a bad prediction for it is an
odds-on bet hat those States would
be carried by any candidate the
Democrats could or would nominate.
These States and their electoral
votes are:
Alabama, II; Arkansas, 9; Flor
ida. 6; Georgia, IA; louisiana, 10;
Mississippi. 10; North Nrolina, 12i|
South Carolina. o; Tex 20; ,Vir-
lgln1I2, ~ Total ia.
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