Evening star., 1923-09-03
Warns, ( Of. :. DECLINE. |:
!. OF LONDON BIRTHS
Economist Thinks Britain
Soon Will be in Same
Quandary as France.

Ey Cable to The Star and New York Tribune
Copyright. 1923.
LONDON, September 3.-The popu-
1ation of London is headed toward a
point where, just a in France. 1t will
remain stationary and may even be-
gin, to show a decline. This startling
proposition is advanced by Charles Z.
Pell, author of the now well known
book. The Riddle Of Unemployment
and It's Solution" He made. the state
ment in the course of d controversy
IN progress here regarding the 1,500.-
600 MEN and women out of work in
this country at the present time. .
The problem of population now is
more discussed here than az any time
since the days of Nautilus. The gen.
eral view is that in the postwar con-
dition of Europe this city is over
populated. Even aside from the i'm
mediate question of the reparations
settlement, which is regarded as
holding up the recovery of Europe,
there is widespread tendency to be-
leve that decline in the European
that it would, be wisdom to face
rather than. ignore this unpafatable
position
Near Breaking Point.
The war came and 100000 men
and women died. The war has passed
and there are some 100000 unem- :
ployed, while over the greater part
almost irsupportable. From these
facts it is argued that the vast Eu-
ropean power is in time bound to
decline and fall. This country and.
! indeed, the whole of Europe cannot
support itself, and at the same time
the eXportable foodstuffs from Amer
lea are declining, while American
manufactures have become devel-
oped to point that makes European
exports less and less necessary.
The common assumption Is that the
position is due to bad distribution Of
populations. and organized migration
to undcveloped countries. such as the
British dCminions. is suggested as a
sidered at the forthcoming imperial
conference, and undoubtedly would
relieve conditions temporarily. but
fails to answer the. fundamental
ing more rapidly than its sources of
food supply.
Another suggested remedy is birth
control. but this. as W.. H.. Keynes
conceded. is bound to raise burning
religious, social and political aues-
ttons.
Sees Births Drop
Revolutionizing these theories, Pell
now comes forward with the claim
that the situation is really the re-
! verse of all this. The population is
! already undergoing a NATURAL check.
he declares. The danger is not over
population at all. but rather under
] population. This seems strange in
view of the fact that in 1921, the
latest year for which fula figuses- are
available in England. there was a
surplus OF births over deaths amount
ing to 390,335. Pell argues. however
| that this excess is temporarily only.
He points out that it is her much
. heavier death rate that leaves France
with such small excess of births
over deaths, but argues that this Is
| Que because there is a much larger
proportion of old people in France now
than elsewhere. and England is passing
swiftly through the stages that France
had previously passed through rather
Slowly.
In support of his view he points out
that when the present small proportion
of children in this country grow up.
proportion of people of child-bearint
age. As a result of this, the popufa-
tion in England will approximate In
constitution. that of France, with sifrfi-
lar consequences -
Faces Depopulation.
The birth rate will continue to fall
more and more swiftly, he believes.
, while the death rate will cease declin-
ing and may even Increase ultimately.
the former will overtake the latter and
the country will face depopulation.
Pell claims that the birth rate has
already passed from control and thst
other sections of the Anglo-Saxon race
are in the same and even in a worse
case.
The native-born population of the
United States, according to his argu
ment, is in a. condition at least as
bad as that of France-and probably
worse. His summing::up of his. s.posi-
tion is along the following lines:
LAS fertility isseont inuaify- falling
there can be no doubt that the
Anglo Saxon element in America is
steadily dying out and; as the birth
rate in all of the more highly civ
ilized countries is falling at an ac-
celebrating ratio, which must ulti-
nately overtake the death rate. de-
population is the ultimate outcome"