Evening star., 1923-02-02

II any one intends to start a dia-
mond store on 5th avenue. New York.
it behooves him to Investigate the
price of potatoes and corn in the
Mississippi valley, and the activities
of boil weevil in Texas. If the
farmers-those pastoral people who
know nothing about international
finance" according to Banker Bald
win of London-are not getting a
good price for their products. look
out! The jewelry trade in New
York is going to slump. Likewise
the clothing business and the auto
mobile demand. In fact, about six
months after every depression in ag-
riculture xhere is sure to be an
epidemic of bankruptcies amongst
the merchants throughout Am merica.
1T is as certain is weather prognos-
tications, at least. 1t is surer than
that. for it follows as the night fol-
the exclusive dealer in the highest
class Of jewelry. as well as the brok-
er in bonds and other Wall street
securities, Is dependent upon the
trade Of the farmers.
Yes. / hear the sneer OF the deal
er who boasts that he never caters
to the trade OF any but the ''exclu-
sive class" that he is not at all con-
cerned in the price of onions and
wheat-but he is. Perhaps just
when he thinks he has established a
prosperous trade with the ultra rich.
do not understand why a bumper
crop is so named They think 1t
! means a wave Of plenty and prosperi-
ty, when for both farmer and mer-
chant it may mean that both Will go
bump.
The Department of Agriculture has
prepared chart-one of those plats
of curves and angles which wiggle in
most amazing demonstrations of in
disputable statistics and prove that
the diamond merchant can't sell
coronets of Kohinoors at a million
dollars each if the farmer Is getting
less than cost for raising hay. The
farmer looks over his field of golden
corn and in classic phrase exclaims,
These are my jewels" and when he
finds trade slack in his "jewelry
store" he may know that 1t is re-
fiectcd by slack business on 5th ave-
nue..
One-third of the clothing, the
pianos. rugs, automobiles and maqhin-
cry is bought by farmers. They may
not be buying jewelry directly from
New York Exclusives" but IL they
shorten their purchases on Main
street the Main street dealer goes
out of business and he ceases to send
orders 20 the jobbers, and the jobbers
cease to send orders to manufacture
ers; the factories close, the idle wage
earners- economize and go hungry.
their patronage of clothiers and
grocers is shortened. Bankruptcy of
the exclusives follows the progress
of the boil weevil and the potato bug
or the slump in the market demand
| for the bumper crops.
All this is familiar theory to most
observers, but now the Department
! of Agriculture's chart proves it by
! history The chart covers the period
from 1890 to the present
! Taking the figure 100 as the normal
! or average purchasing power OF farm :
| ers, tho chart shows variation our
ling the eleven years from 1890 TO
! 1901 from 100 down to 81, and pusl-
mess failures during the Same period
tyaried from normal to 60 per cent
a bove normal. Whenever the ia r1n-
| ers' purchasing power went down the
!line Indicating business failures rose
high. =. = :: =
! for. both the farmers and business.
Then from 1905 to 1919 the farmers
! prosperity ran smooth, even 70 per
| cent above normal part of the time.
Business failures ran about normal,
even to 20 per cent below, normal part
Of the time. Remember that the
! higher the prosperity line OF farm l.
ers the lower the. line OF business
| failures.
These two "curves' never bulged al
1.-THE same time The line showing
business failures always Jagged from
six months to year after the curve
! tshowing farm depression Enece-toi-
lIows cause: it does not coincide Win
lit. In 1919 a farm depression began
and the curve of the farmers pur'
Ichasing power ran down. down, down