Evening star., 1923-11-25
BALDWIN VICTORY
PREDICTED IN RACE
Liberal Editor, However,
Sees Premier's Reputation
as Leader Gone.
BY A. G.. GARDINER.

By Cable to The Star.
LONDON. November 24.-The poll
ticians have scattered to their con-
stituencies, and the whole country is
humming with preparations for the
election. Prime Minister Baldwin
frankly admits that he blundered into
1t accidentally. He had no idea Of
the effect of his Plymouth speech of
October 81 and found he had started
an election without intending it. One
of his colleagues said to a friend of
the writer, Baldwin turned the tap
1n and found that he could not stop
1T That is the explanation of this
preposterous election. in nutshell.
Whatever the results. Mr.. Baldwin's
reputation as serious statesman
will not survive.
The only visible effect so far has
been the union of the two wings Of
the liberal party under former Pre-
miers Asquith and Lloyd George.
How deep this union goes is mat
ter of doubt, and a strange ana oiTn-
cult situation would arise II the no
erals had to form government. Tor
the personal hostilities between the
two groups are intense. though they
arc overshadowed for the moment Dy
the magnitudesof the issue. All agree
that they must defend free trade
against this sudden challenge, but
the relations after the election are
difficult to forecast
Liberal Victory Doubted.
1t is extremely improbable, how
ever, that the liberals Will be called
upon to form government. Ihere
are three parties in the held-the
conservatives, who are fighting for
protection. and the liberals ana
iaborites, both of whom are defend
ing free erade. But no compromise
has taken place between the iioerais
and the laborites. Candidates OF
both free trade parties are contest
ing for the same seats. Hence, the
conservatives will win many seats
with their protection platform; al
though the majority OF votes VIII oe
cast for free trade.
In these circumstances the writer
view is that Premier BALDWIN VIII
come back with majority In tne
house, but with smaller majority
than he enjoyed in the last parila-
ment In that case, he will find 1t
practically impossible to carry the
protectionist program In the race OF
the majority of votes Tor Tree TRACE
cast at the election.
His difficulty will be increased by
the fact that his party Will include
a small but powerful group OF CON
didacies the premier has been com
PEELED to indorse in, spite OF the fact
that they have repudiated his policy.
Defeat Real Problem.
The real problem will arise If the
premier comes back defeated. as is
possible. though improbable: In that
case, will the liberals and laborltes
form Joint administration? The
writer thinks not 1t is more prob
able that the larger party would ac-
cept Office and rely on the smaller
party, not wishing another election,
to give it the necessary support.
The present aim of the liberal ana
labor parties is to beat each other
and win the position of second largest
was held in the last parliament by
labor, but the reunited liberals hope
to come back stronger than labor
and either form the new government
the opposition. This hope Is strength
ened by the expectation that labor,s
adoption of capital levy policy will
alarm the voters.
Lloyd George Success.
Meanwhile the liberals themselves
with Lloyd George has improved
their position. 1t undoubtedly sent
many of the younger liberals into
the labor camp. resolved never again
to accept the former premier as one
of their leaders. However. his ad-
vent on the free trade platform has
been a great success.
An important factor in the election
IS the women's vote. When the last
protection battle was fought woman
suffrage did not exist. Now there
are 100000 woman voters. all with |
larderss to fill. Already prices are
rising in anticipa tion of the tariffs !
and tho free traders look for a tidal |
wave Of women's votes in their
favor.
Meanwhile the news from Germany
grows steadily worse as Premier |
Poincare's policy Of strangulation and |
starvation proceeds unchecked. The |
German re:ch's support of the Ruhr !
ends this week and the population is [
faced with utter famine.
MIR. Baldwin plays NJ. Poincare's |
game admirably. He sets us pratt |
Ting about tariffs while the French |
premier completes the ruin of Ger
many. |
Copyright. 1921