San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-09-23
Decline May Be Supple
ment to Reaction of
Late Spring.
NO STRAIN ON CREDIT
Money Rates Drop to
Lowest of the
Year.
BY STURT p. WEST.


New York, Sept. 22.-To get a true
picture Of the present business situa-
ton one has to look at it industry by
industry. There is no such thing as a
general tendency one way or the
other.
Occurrences during the week just
past have emphasized the unprofit-
able condition in the oil trade and
have exposed more clearly the fact
that orders are not coming into the
steel mills the way it was expected
they would month ago. The demand
for certain lines of wooden goods has
proved disappointing and price NGt
ting has continued among the tire
i companies, indicating an excessive
p output
= The decline in wheat has been
checked but with the unusually large
y Canadian Wei and assuming normal
surrluses N other exporting coun-
tries. Europe will be vriy dependent
10 an exceptionally small degree upon
the American crop. 10 retain an out
Z let Tor our surplus at all. it will be
necessary to keep prices down to the
low level occdsloned by an uncommon
iy severe International competition.
The meanin. OF this Is that the Ameri-
can wheat farmer must reconcile him
self to q losing season.
Several Favorable Factors.
AS against all this is to be set the
new high pieces tor cotton. The ac-
conpanyIng revival in the demand for
cotton goods, the rise ID sugar and
unprecedented activity in electrical
supplies. AisJ. there is DO evidence oil
let up in general distrlbutlve trace.
The chain store companies and the de-
pertinent stores continue prosperous.
Latest carloadings figures have shown
that the .allTCads are handling the
largest volume OF business in their
history.
There are two different ways of in
terpreting the recent decline on the
stock exchange. Either i; is pre-
luce to a general business recession or
it is merely supplement to the main
reaction OF the late sptIng and early
SUMMER check due to the TACT that
hopes of a fresh forward swing in the
business world i'll autumn, have so
fer not been realized.
The first and more serious view is
he'd By soMe Wall street critics
whose opinions command respect and
carry an influence upon the day to
dag market. But 1t is not the view
publicly expressed by nltn of proni-
ncnce in the business snd financial
fed.
Within the Inst week or SO nIgl
representative of the steel. the copper
and the wooden trades have deci+icd
their optimism regarding the future.
Heads Of the oil Industry have as
SCI ted that the present over-supply
and low prices are Temporary, that
tire oil market will pull up, as i. has
under similar circumstances in the
past.
Supporting these statements au-
thoriuIes in Washington, have de-
clared that business conditions are
sound, and by this it may be taken
{, mean that they see none of the eie-
ments, sucn as over production and
price initiation which are the forerun-
-ners of a period of depression.
T. Buying Movement MIsinterpreted.
The truth of the present situation
can be made clear if only proper rec
ignition is gwen to the excessive char
acter of the buying movement of six
months ago. This was not, as was
thought at the time, the beginning
of new advance. 1t was merely a
sudden rush by merchants and manu-
1acturers to replenish materials and
stocks of goods which had been al
lowed to run down. This in-pour was
carried TO the extent where many con-
sumers made their purchases for
months and, in some instances, almost
year ahead. The Iron Age, in its
latest review, reported the very strik-
ing result of an Investigation in the
eastern steel industry territory, where
80 per cent of the buyers canvassed
answered that they were fully pro-
yided for until the end of the year.
- while the other 80 per cent expected
TO be In the market later. This is an
illustration of the excess of last
springs abrupt expansion and il
shows how what has occurred since is
necessary return TO a reduced state
of activity for while.
The course of the money market
has been notable. In the old times
the latter half of September saw the
crop moving requirements approach
ing their maximum. If there happened
to be trade activity it meant an ex-
ira strain because of the converging
of these two sources of demand sim
ultaneously upon the available supply
of funds. The faIriiar procedure was
for oanKs IN the interior to draw down
their New York balances, with the
frequent sequel that the New York
banks, in turn, called in their local
l loans and put up rates for future &C.
commodation.
No Credit Strain at All.
One of the great objects in founding
the Federal Reserve System was to
d. away with this perennial crisis by
upbilizing the full credit supply OF
tie nation and making it easy to
transmit funds from sections where
fhe,need was small, to sections where
fle peed was great. But now the fed.
Gal reserve Institution has not been
called upon to help out at all. On the
contrary. in a week, when formerly
the New York money market had be-
gun to feel the strain, the New York