San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-01-21
Aid Of This Country Will Be
Offered France and
Germany.
NEITHER CAN WIN
Situation in Ruhr Is Dead
locked and Both Nations
Will Become Exhausted.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE

Washington, ID. c., Jan. 2O.--Media-
ton between France and Germany by
one OF the allied powers is the next
step in the reparations controversy.
Officials of the United States gov
eminent fully expect it. The exact
moment when good offices will be ten
dered upon the effect which the inva-
sion of the Ruhr shall have on opinion
in France and Germany. As one official
expressed it, nothing can be done until
both sides recover their sanity and rec
ognize the futility OF what they are
doing"
There is 10 sympathy here either
with the passive resistance Of the Ger
mans or the cocFcive tactics of the
French. Both are expected to yield
nothing for their respective peoples.
One member of the cabinet said today
that he believed the net effect of the
invasion of the Ruhr would be to prove
TO the French that they cannot collect
what they went after and to convince
the Germans that they must cease eva.
sion of obligations and make n bonn
fide statement of what they really can
pay. Then a settlement will be pos
sible.
L. s. Wants TO Help.
The United States government Is
anxious to be helpful but it would seem
more likely that Great Britain or Italy
would attempt the mediation between
France and Germany as they are in
closer touch with developments on both
sides of the controversy though it
would pot be surprising. il n hint came
10 the American government from one
of the interested parties to mediate.
Germany has already attempted to per-
suade Great Britain TO mediate, but the
likelihood is that until France shows
a readiness to listen to mediation none
of the allied governments will make any
formal effort to bring France and Ger
many together.
People in the government here who
know the European situation intimately
feel that even from the French view.
point the invasion of the Ruhr will
prove of doubtful value. They concede
that il will bring the German govern
ment to a realization Of its obligations,
but they fear that since France will
have used the one club she has always
been talkir, about, the Germans VIII
not be inundated in the future as
much as they have in the past. In
other words economic pressure was Il
stronger weapon unused than used SO
far as psychological effects are con-
cerned.
A Hopeless Situation.
As analysed here, the French cannot
hope to get coal out of the Ruhr even
by arresting the owners OF the mines.
In America the coal operators have Their
own system of distribution through
agents and dealers, but in Germany dis
tribution is centralized and when the
Germans withdraw their distributing
machinery from the Ruhr. they left the
French in q hopeless situation. The
Rubr area is very small and the pro-
ductive machinery is very complicated
The Germans will be miserable and will
suffer exceedingly but officials here
think they will probably thwart. the
French effort TO get coal. 1t is there
fore. a war of exhaustion. When the
pinch of hunger begins to be felt and
the entire productive capacity of Ger
many is interfered with, the Germans
will be begging for a truce. And as
for the French the drop in German re-
CENTS from exports will automatically
diminish the amounts due France in
taxes aud the sums originally sought
will not have been forthcoming. Neither
side will admit failure-both will try
to put the burden Of defeat on the
other when mediation comes.
How 1t Affects Us.
Meanwhile the effect on American
trade and commerce as visualized here
is about as follows:
Germany's imports have about ceas-
ed. American exports to Germany have
been throttled. Foreign countries which
have hitherto purchased from Germany
are buying the same kinds of goods
from America, This is temporarily an
advantage, but is not helpful for the
future. 1t means that while America
may be selling ten more units OF Ger.
tain goods, she is losing twenty units OIL
other products which Germany herself
has been buying from the United States
Heretofore Germany has piled up IN
foreign countries the dollars and pounds
she has received from the sale OF her
exports and has been buying goods with
that money, but those credits are SAM
TO be virtually exhausted now and trade
has stopped in both directions with
much of Germany's necessary require
ments of foodstuffs untitled.
Except for the threatening situation
in the Rubr and its effect on the en-
tire European purchasing power, the
international business situation mas
been showing a gradual improvement.
The question is now how long will the
business interests of France, Great Bri-
tain, the United States and Italy let
France and Germany continue their war
of exhaustion. Business men alone can
bring about mediation in the allied
countries and the prospects are that
they will.