San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-08-12
STOCKS RID Of
sUNEAS|NESS At
CLOSE Of WEEK
Exaggerated Pessimism
Evident a Month Ago
Disappears.
TRADE OUTLOOK MIXED
Agricultural Position I'M
proves-Crude Oil Pro-
duction Drops.
By STUART p, WEST.

BY STUART p. WEST.
Copyright by The San An:on!o Light.
New York, Aug. 1.-THE business
outlook still is a good deal mixed at
the close of another week, but the
financial markets are rid of the exag-
gerated uneasiness and pessimism
which characterized them a month
ago.
In the first week of July the de-
cline in stocks were checked, because
prices had reached a level which was
sufficiently attractive to buyers. At
the same low level the secondary de-
cline was stopped in the first few days
of August. The ordinary reading of
this experience would be that there
are definite points of support in the
present market, or to put it another
way, there is q certain price range at
which people of substance believe the
risks and uncertainties of the outside
situation have been sufficiently dis
counted.
Autumn Trade Outlook.
The time has not yet come when it
is possible to forecast the conditions
of the autumn trade. But nothing has
happened to discourage the view that
the business volume during the latter
part of the year will be satisfactory
although it promises only moderate
profits in most lines. Despite the
heavy shrinkage in untitled orders re-
ported by the steel corporation, new
business has been picking up during
the last fortnight. Steel men predict
that orders will have caught up with
production in another month. Mean
while steel prices are holding firm.
there have been very few cancellations
end equally few instances where mill
representatives have had to look for
customers. In other words. features
ordinarily present at time of APP
preaching depression are not present
now in the steel trade.
Agriculture Improves.
But 80 far as the state of agricul. |
tu.c Is concerned. matters have bright
cneI decidedly. The decline in wheat |
has been checked and cotton prices at
Ole time during the week were up |
over . cents Il pound. This means Il |
great deal for tie much discussed |
had the blues last month over the u
cents a buShel drop in wheat, how il
would inevitably curtail purchases in
the agricultural states of the West
AMI how this would react upon the ell
tire business situation.
As a matter of fact the rebound III
cotton is quite an important influence
in the farm outlook as was last
months fall in wheat. The sudden
turn in cotton prices has revealed that
the partial slump in the New England
cotton goods trade was exaggerated.
it was due to over production but to
the mill owners holding off in expecta-
ton that the raw material would 20
still lower. When raw cotton started
upward the goods trade at once got
busy again.
Crude Oil Production Drops.
A favorable development in another
direction has been the falling off for
the first time in the production and
importation of crude oil. 1t may be too
early to conclude that the decline in
prices, plus the restrictions imposed by
the refiners have made themselves felt
III definite turn. But the feeling is
that if the peak Of oil production has
not quite been reached. it is at least
close at hand.
The leather industry. as indicated
by the latest quarterly reports, is in a
rather bad way and there seems no
prospect of the copper trade becoming
more active unless something favor
able happens abroad.
The decline in pig iron has been
checked and so has the decline in
sugar. 1t looks as though the price
readiustment was about completed on
August /. when the average was off S
per cent from the high of March, but
was still over q per cent above year
ago.
Trade Position Improves.
While from this examination in de-
tail the trade positions appears still |
uneven. ii is certainly better than 1t
was a month ago. The American Rail-
way Association has reported that the |
haul vi merchandise and manufactured /
goods aswell as of grain and coal was |
larger in the third week of July than |
in the second and larger in the fourth |
week than in the third. The fourth |
week broke all records in the history
OF the country.
Nobody need be told that in periods |
where business activities are being
curtailed there is no surer reflection
tii!H tue Nolulne OF freight passing |
over the railroads. Railway traffic and
railway gross earnings are very sens- |
tive 10 these business changes and the
facL that they have not gone down
bu. on the contrary have been stead |
ily mounting. is altogether the most
significant feature of the present sit |
uation.
End OF Paper Mark.
Passing TO European affairs, there
j. u certain amount of reinsurance of !
{ pcgative sort regarding Germany.
1be mark. which ten days ago was
selling ON a basis of million to the
dollar, has been quoted as low as six
and half million TO the dollar. Ger
tainly this was crash of sufficient
violence to bring about the general
collapse" of which so many have long
been talking. The reason no catas-
frophe has occurred is simply that the
German people have long recognized
that the mark was worthless and have
governed their transactions accord
hgly.
All trading with other nations has
been done in gold and much of Ger
man home business is being conducted
with the dollar as the unit. After last ]