Evening star., 1923-08-09

pretty confident that MIR. Baldwin
will do nothing whatever; he is pre-
pared to be reasonably polite with
the object of spinning out the con-
versation for the requisite two
months, but he has no intention or
making the slightest real concession
Why should he?-on his own pre-
suggestions.
Sees Two Mistakes.
NJ Poincare makes two mistakes.
The first mistake. namely, that the
collapse of Germany is to his ad-
vantage. is widely appreciated out
side of France. Nevertheless. one i'm
ms diate aspect of 1t is worth men
tioning. the Ruhr is fed by the rest
of Germany-at great expense and
only by the exercise of the central
authority of Berlin. If this authority
is broken, whether by the collapse at
the center or by the capitulation at
the Buhr circumference. the organ
ization OF food supplies will fall.
Suppose that 100000 people throw
up their hands, submit to France, and
Cry, Wen do whatever you desire,
but feed u.s." What will NJ. Poincare
do then? The value Of the net surplus
of the Ruhr in full prosperity is not
certainly less than nothing. If France
were to have the Ruhr thrown on her
hands she would not know what to
do with it If Germany breaks down
il is then in fact that NJ. Poincare's
difficulties will begin.
His second mistake may not be a
mistake. after all Mr.. BaIdwin's re-
gard for French susceptibilities. the
notorious divisions within the British
cabinet, the Morning Post and Rother-
mere Press, even the speeches of Lord
Grey, have combined to persuade NJ.
Poincare that Great Britain will cling
to the entente at all costs and that
he has nothing at all TO fear from
her as long as he keeps his head.
He calculates that the final break
down in Germany will find the strong
silent man in Downing street still
talking.
Baldwin Fools Self.
Who can say that he is wrong?
Mr.. Baldwin partly is fooled by NJ.
Poincare. but mainly fools himself on
purpose because he has no idea what
to do next when once he stops fooling.
These are indeed problems of extra
ordinary difficulty. Most people in
Mr.. Baldwin's position would do the
same as he does.
Nevertheless. the problem would be
vastly simplified If the British cabinet
could make up it's mind which of the
three broadly alternative policies it
means to pursue.
If we are going to do nothing. the
sooner we say so the better. for. as
Mr.. Cham berlain pointed out in the
house Of commons, our present inde-
Cision merely prolongs the agony.
If We wish to defeat NJ. Poincare's
policy of producing a breakdown in
Germany. no half measures could he
useful. We must break the entente.
encourage Germany and get busy TO
tions. This is what Mr.. Lloyd George
would probably do if he were in
power | see no prospect of Mr.. Bald
wins cabinet adopting such course.
Proposes New Plan.
The remaining alternative is to
make one more attempt to act. not
against France, but on France, by
offering her something which she pre-
fers to her present prospects. Per-
haps this is impossible. Nothing but
an offer of extreme boldness could
have a chance. Let me outline what
would offer France. not because
at all the great game of world politics
one must fling big stakes on the table.
Let US tear up all the correspondence
to date and propose openly before
the world. as follows:
If France would agree % to evac-
uate the Ruhr: (2) to fix the nominal
German liability at fifty milliards: !:
20, oil
liability is to be discharged to be
determined by a committee of the
reparations commission, on which
would sit an American representa-
tive with r vote along with the Brit
ish, French. Italian and Belgian rep
resentatives:
Then Great Britain would agree
% to cancel all interally debts;
CD to allow the claims Of other allies
an absolute priority over her own
on future receipts from Germany.
situation Desperate.
Failing acceptance of this by
France, Great Britain would proceed
Cd to withdraw her troops from the
Rhineland and leave France alone,
with no aid or sympathy from Great
| Britain, to work out her present
policy to its bitter conclusion; (2)
to preserve in their entirety British
rights to that share of sums col
lected from Germany; (3) to require
the payment of Frances debt to
Great Britain up to 100 per cent of
Frances receipts from Germany from
time to time.
The situation is an almost desper-
ate one in which, as result of the
British foreign policy having lacked
strength and wisdom for the past
five wears NJ Poincare holds nearly
all the cards. Unless Mr.. Baldwin
| is more of a man of action than he
has shown himself so far, he has
not dogs chance.
Copyright 1923. Published by arrangement
with the New Republic.)
AUTO RACER ASKS DECREE.