San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-04-15
EXPANSION IN
sTRADE REACHES
! HIGHEST PEAK
Steel Plants and Railroads
: Working on Capacity
Basis. 49,
STOCKS STEADY AGAIN
But Labor Shortage and
Oil Price Cuts Not
Encouraging.
STOCKS STEADY AGAIN
By STUART T.. WEST

BY STUART p. WEST
t,opvrirht, by The san Antonio Light
New York, April t4.-The financial
comnunity this week has passed
Through varying phases OF opinion re-
Sarding the business outlook. Those
MILO have been maintaining that the
Aeak of the expansion during the last
Six months has been reached found
ENCOURAGEMENT for their view III the
cut in oil prices and in the statement
DIV the iron trade journals that new
buying had fallen off, partly because
ri the shortage Of labor, and partly be-
rause consumers were filled up on
their requirements.
! Later on the markets were inclined
10 adopt a more favorable judgment.
Over-production in the oil trade was
of course admitted. 1t has been
known for a long time that the Cal
iiornia wells were far outrunning To-
cal demand and were shipping more
and more of their surplus to the At
3antic seaboard Competition has been
ihcreasing. with the result that prices
lave been lowered.
~ No Steel Surplus Likely.
But the oil trade represents a unique
case. The position in other industries,
Including steel, is quite different. True,
stocks which had been allowed TO run
down to a minimum during 1921 and
The first half of 1922 have now been
replenished. There is no need for buy
ers to get panicky on the subject OF
Future supplies.
81 But. while this condition applies
10 steel and to many other lines, 1t
does not indicate over-production. The
main point TO emphasize is that the
only thing which might bring about
q serious check upon commercial buy
ing is a further advance in prices and
that merchants and manufacturers,
perceiving this danger, are doing their
utmost to avert it.
Trade Expansion Nears Peak.
Undoubtedly it is a fact that trade
expansion since the first of the year
has gone as far as it is likely TO-
Steel mills, unable TO get their tull
equipment Of workmen, are extended
to their utmost when they are operat-
ing at OF to SO per cent of capacity.
The wooden mills going overtime, the
building trades breaking all records
for activity. the railroads carrying the
largest volume of traffic ever known
at this time of the year-these and
many other indications point TO the
forward wave having approached
pretty close to the crest.
No Reaction Pending.
This, however, is not to say by any
means that a serious movement OF re-
action is impending. There is no re-
semblance TO the conditions of three
years ago, when manufacturers and
business men generally, seeing no limit
TO price initiation, had Overstocked
their shelves.
All they have done so far is TO
bring their stocks up to normal with
moderate provision for requirements
during he next three 10 siA months.
If prices keep around the present
level there is no reason to anticipate
any important falling off in demand.
In other words, the present salts
factory volume of business, so far as
now APPEARS, is likely to be main
tanned for some time to come.
Higher Wages Cut Profits.
The main qualification upon OPP
timissic conclusions comes with the
labor problem. Already the 10 and
u per cent increase m wage scales
announced all over the country during
the .ast few weeks have cut heavily
into the profit margin of industrial
companies.
This is not the worst, for it will
not be until the late summer and
autumn that the demand for laboring
men will reach its height.
Even now it is officially reported
that the labor supply in the agricul-
tural regions is 10 per cent below
necessity. What will this be when
the harvest season comes four months
from now?
When farmers have to bid against
the Ugh prices paid common laborers
at the manufacturing centers there is
likely TO be an outcry.
Federal Reserve Discounts Cut.
The most important incident of the
week was the further reduction OF
S49.O00,O00 in federal reserve reds
counts. This, following the decrease
of previous weeks, was interpreted
to mean that there was no likelihood
of any increase yet awhile in discount
rates. The immediat effect is ar
allround concession 10 borrowers oi
money.
Inasmuch as one of the principa
fears in the stock market Of a montl
ago was measures of restraint on tht
part of the reserve banks, this was al
encouraging developmnte in the spec
Native situation. At the same tint
the present assurance that the ten
dency toward rising money rates had
for the time being. been checked
brought about a steadying tone in tn
investment bond list.
Wall Street Position Stronger.
Regarding the immediate Wall stree
position, indications are that it j
stronger than it was two weeks ag
and much stronger than it was
month ago. when excitement had bee
worked up to high pitch over th
rapid rise in prices and the most oh
surd predictions were being made q
10 where stocks were likely 10 go.
In other words, people of importanc
who sold out in the heat Of the cam