San Antonio light. [volume] (San Antonio, Tex.) 1911-1993, 1923-09-02
History Repeats Itself;
Prices May Collapse in
September.
ADVANCE IS RAPID
Nearly All Ground Lost
!, 81. Since Middle of May
:, Regained.
By STUART P. WEST.

90 New York, Sept. 1.-History has re-
repeated itself in Wall street and Au-
gust has lived up to its tradition as
month OF rising prices. In the old
times prior to the establishment of fed
erai reserve system upward movements
carried through the summer were apt
10 make hay while the sun shone, that
- Is, before the money market shut down
upon speculative borrowing to devote
Its whole resources to the crop move
ment. 1t was quite the usual thing for
money rates to go up before September
was far along, for the banks to begin
pulling in their stock exchange loans
and for the promising ''bull market"
of the previous month to abruptly col
lapse.
Nowadays the harvest demands have
lost their terror. Under the smooth
workings of the federal reserve where
by credit is pooled for the benefit of
the sections where the need is great
est, the money market has ceased to
be sensitive to what formerly was a
severe strain. Yet even in the decade
: since the establishment of the regional
banking system, the sequence of Wall
: street events has been pretty much the
same. There have been one or two ex-
ceptions, but it has still been true that
i. where the stock market has gone up to
any extent in August September, after
the first week or so, has been a month
1>jof receding prices.
Stocks Regain Losses.
The reason for this lies in nothing
snelse than the law Of action and reac-
ton and it may be said that, the Au-
gust rise this year having been merely
= nofrrra1 r>ahorfpA oftar
decline, there is no weak speculative
situation to be corrected as there has
been in other years. Still the fact has
TO be weighed that the upward turn
last month was rapid and extensive.
Outside OF few groups like the oils
+ and coppers. representing industries
- whose immediate position was unsatis-
factory, stocks at their high of the last
week were back. over half to three
quarters of the ground lost since the
i middle Of May.
The decline in its early stages, that
! is during the six weeks from April ]
" on-was the ordinary reaction from
the ill-judged speculation of the win
ter. It was the revision of Wall s:eet |
4 values in keeping with the discovery |
j. that there was not to be a runaway
H. trade boom or inflationary era such as |
! enthusiasts were picturing. But the |
decline thereafter got beyond the |
4 bounds of a normal reaction and be- |
zcame reckless selling movement.
is- Many Uncertainties Appear.
In getting back, as it did the last |
week, the greater part of the losses of |
!! this latter period, the market returned |
to basis where prices correspondent |
h once more with a reasonable view of
: the business outlook. Having accom-
plished this and thus justified the atti- |
4 tude OF those opposed, it became
question whether it had not for the
time being done about all it was ex-
. pected to do. The surroundings are
not here for cny big speculation from
y, the existing price level. The prospects
IS are for satisfactory autumn in most
lines of trade, but there is not suffi-
y Gent incentive in this for an extended
Wall street campaign. Nor must it be
forgotten that there are many uncer-
a tainties to be faced during the next
~ few months both in European affairs
. and in politics at home.
$40 Reports that Germany is about TO
back down in the Ruhr have been re-
urceived with considerable skepticism in
s. financial circles. Advances in French
and Belgium exchange which would
- certainly have followed after the ac-
iseptance Of these stories have not oc-
>. rurred. On the contrary rates have
come down.
Sterling at New Low for Year.
French statesmen and publcists
continue to put forth a bold front and
Amaintain that there is no reason for
The recent decline in he franc. They
9nhave much to say about improvement
kin government revenue, but when it
! comes to dealing with the deficit in the
1, extraordinary budget, which is reck-
;oned at some thirteen billion francs,
= they take the position that this will be
hsinet eventually by German operations
3Sas IL this were an undisputed fact.
acTbe trouble is that the world outside is
I not SO confident about Frances ability
fnto collect as are the Frenc' Spokesmen
themselves. Therefore. some holders
of French francs and Belgian francs.
ibtoo. have preferred to have their funds
vim safer currencies. 1t is not main
tanned that this liquidation has been
such as to Justify the description
|. flight from the franc" But it has
4 been enough to disprove the charge
that the decline is the result Of specu-
II VI .lation.
Both sterling and italian Ira have
h reached new lowS for the year But in
neither instance is this reflex of
economic conditions. Great Britain is
I, 10 pay for the annual purchases Of
American cotton and grain while pre-
pairing TO meet the semi-annual inter
u est on the war debt. The fall in the
lira is entirely the result of the dispute
with Greece. Italy is still long way
from balancing her budget, but she has
.-made greater progress toward this end
than any other country in continental
2, Europe.
Steel Industry Good.
Accounts of domestic business con-
tinue TO bear out the belief that the
real turn came a month ago and that
the present month will see more activ-
ity in certain lines whore there was
temporary falling off during the early