Eagle River review. [volume] (Eagle River, Wis.) 1890-1927, 1923-10-04
Forecasting Big
Help to Farmers
Statement Of What May Be
Expected to Happen Based
Upon Present Conditions.
(Prepared by the United States Department
~ AGriculfure

(Prepared by the United States Department
of Agricultural
agricultural forecasting by public
agencies will put farmers more
nearly on an even basis with those in
other industries in deciding whether
to continue in accordance with their
old plans or readjust their produc-
ton, owing to permanent changes
which may have taken place in mar
keting conditions" says DIR. Henry G.
Taylor, chief of the bureau Of agricul-
tural economics of the Department Of
Agriculture.
s'In periods of unsettled economic
conditions, agricultural forecasting is
of great Importance" says Doctor
Taylor. "The great war has thrown
economic relations out Of equilibrium.
The agricultural depression has result
ed in efforts on the part of the farm
ers to improve their situation through
readjustments.
'Forecasting can be viewed not only
from the standpoint of the individual
farmer and the merchant dealing in
farm products, but also from the ma
tional point of view-the supply of
food and raw materials for the nation
throughout a series of years. From
the individual point of view, forecast
ing is the basis of wise farm manage
ment and marketing.
Basis of Policy.
From the national point of view it
is the basis Of national agricultural
policy From the latter point of view
agricultural forecasting centers about
the question of the right utilization of
land-how much should be used for
each of the cultivated crops, how much
for forestry and how much for parks
and Fairgrounds in order that the
maximum of national well-being may
be attained.
Frequent changes in the sources of
supply, quantities produced and the
consequent changes in prices of farm
products lead to a desire for better
basis of judgment than most farmers
now have when projecting their plans
for the coming year." says Doctor
Taylor. "This has led various agen-
cies to attempt to supply this need by
making forecasts of what is likely to
happen. A forecast is statement of
what may be expected to happen,
based upon present conditions and OBJ
servations interpreted in the light of
previous experience and is the basis
of planning beforehand what action
to take in order to secure a desired
end.
Farmers of necessity make fore
casts. In the light of their knowledge
of the physical and economic environ
ment they decide what they will I'M
dertake to do for the coming year
how much land they will use, the acre
age they will put into each of the vari-
GUS crops ami the live stock they will
keep as part of the farming opera
tions. Merchants who deal in farm
products give even more attention to
agricultural forecasting than do farm
ers themselves. In so far as the
economic factors are concerned farm
ers too generally determine how much
they will produce next year of given
crop on the basis of present prices
rather than prospective prices. AS a
result they have often planted high
priced seed in increased quantities and
sold the increased quantities of prod
uct at low prices and, in turn, planted
lightly of low-priced seeds and had
small production to sell at high prices
Supply and Demand.
''The buyers Of farm products take
into account not only produce on hand,
but the probable future supply of the
product which may be forthcoming. If
there is 10 per cent surplus of the
product of one year to be carried over
plus naturally bases the price he is
willing to pay upon the probable price
he will be able to secure the next year
and this he bases on the forecast of
what will probably be produced the
next year.
"While forecasts have always been
made by farmers and merchants and
will continue to be made, it is be-
lieved that agricultural forecasting can
be made more accurate by bringing to
bear historical and statistical meth
DDS of collecting materials which will
add to the accuracy of this forecast
ing.
"a knowledge of present trends in
production and prices in the light of
past experience will add greatly to the
accuracy Of forecasting. Further
more, knowledge Of the intentions of
others, who are simultaneously figur-
ing on making readjustments, will inn
prove the basis of passing judgment.
The purpose of agricultural forecast
ing is the wise guidance of production
in order that there may continue to be
proper balance between the various
lines Of production and between agri-
culture and other industries"