, 1922-02-23
FoREcAsTING THE SENATE.

The favorite pastime of Washington correspond
ents in these early campaign days before nominating
contests have mussed everything up is TO forecast the
political complexion of the next congress. They specu-
late little on the house except to concede it again to
rhe Republicans with \ number of normally Democratic
districts returned to that party.
They have greater delight jim rearranging the SEN
ate because of its smaller membership and the better
probabilities on which to guess.
William E. Brigham, the star writer for the Boston
Transcript, takes his pen in hand and in a couple of
paragraphs fixes it all up in a manner easy to agree
with, when he says:
at is rathematically possible for the Republicans
tc lose the United States senate in the elections of
1922. That it is politically impossible was the opinion
of all the Republican leaders after the election two
years ago, and that opinion still holds good. Thirty
three senate seats, IS held by Republicans and Is by
Democrats, are to be filed at the forthcoming cleo
ton, and the Democrats would need hold all they now
have and gain IL seats more to make the o%verturn.
That they can do this or even approximate such a re-
suit would appear to be beyond the realm of POSSIBLE
ity. Indeed, in the flush Of victory accompanying thu
returns of two years ago it WIS the confident predic-
ton that the senate would remain Republican for at
least ten years, making all reasonable allowances for
shifts in public opinion. Ordinarily one-third of the
senate is eIecsed every two years. This year the death
of Senator Penrose, coming on top of that of Senator
Knox, gives Pennsylvania two places to fill, and as
only the term of Senator Knox would have expired
next year, the candidacy of George Wharton Pepper
the total for the country to 33. The SEN
ate now consists of 30 Republicans, SO Democrats and
one Republican and Progressive johnson of Cali
formal, giving the Republicans a nominal majority of
%. The word nominal is used advisedly, for while
two or three senators elected as Republicans win vote
with their party on organization, they appear to have
very little use for it after they have been handed fat
assignments or desirable chairmanships.
"Tf it were possible to regard the political condi-
tons of 1922 as approximately normal, one would say
that the Democrats in the forthcoming election stand
to lose not less than seven seats and the Republicans
not more than three thus actually increasing the Re
publican majority. Obviously this rough estimate can
be scaled down materially without greatly affecting
Republican control. Still travelling along the line Of
political normally, the Democrats might be expected
TO lose Ashurst in Arizona, Gerry in Rhode Island,
in Wyoming, King in Utah, Myers in Mon
tana, Pomerene in Ohio and perhaps Reed in Missouri.
Arizona sent a Republican in place of a Democrat two
years ago, and is expected ta repeat the experience.
Rhode Island always has been a Republican state, and
the friends Of former Governor Beeckman believe he
will win over Senator Gerry. In Wyoming Frank W.
the Republican leader of the house, whom
his constituents have sent TO congress for "a years, is
slated to receive the Republican nomination against
Senator Kendrick, and no doubt Of his election is en-
at least in Washington. Utah is a peculiar
state. Senator King, in a slightly different way, is as
friendship of the Mormon church and he may not prove
to beat, Much may depend upon the decision of
few men at the last moment King was elected six
years ago by $4,000 votes, but the Republicans are
low said to be united and likely to nominate either
Governor William Spry, now head IF the land
,fice, or ]. Reuben Clark, who was solicitor of the de-
7artment of state under Secretary Knox"
.