The Owosso times., 1922-07-28

10 u kcBull VI u OetdlleO cxuAukuult ltOu
of the methods by committee of
the American Statistical association.
While pronouncing the methods now
followed to be fundamentally sound
and commencing the bureau of mar
kets and crop estimates for the pre-
cautions taken to prevent slips, the
three outstanding statisticians made a
few recommendations, some of which
have already been introduced.
The "crop blunder of 1921" was re
sponsible for the investigation of the
crop reporting system which was
ordered last winter by the secretary
of agriculture. The fact that the com,
mittee of three statisticians, Carroll
w. Doten of the Massachusetts Insti.
tute Of Technology and former presi
dent of the American Statistical Insti.
tute; Prof. Warren M. Persons Of
Harvard university, and Prof. Wilfred
l. King, economist for the National
Bureau of Economic Research, made
a thorough examination of the methods
of gathering and compiling the crop
reports has just been made public. Il
was learned that the three statisti.
clans made two visits to Washington,
during which time they spent several
days for the purpose Of passing upon
the system now In effect.
The Aree most important reforms
suggested are:
l. The strengthening of the field
offices.
2. The designation of a competent,
high class statistician to serve at
Washington, whose sole duty would re
to do research work In the examiDa
tion and analysis of the data from
which the estimates are evolved.
3. The proper correlating of weather
and other factors with the yield from
crops.
Present Methods Revised.
At the Department of Agriculture It
was stated that the committee had re-
ported favorably upon the methods
employed by the government report
ing system in determining the acreage
under cultivation and the probable
yield. The system was said to be
thoroughly sound" and the bureau
was generally commended. However,
the statisticians, after personally re-
viewing the data upon which the pre-
liminary estimates of the condition Of
the crop were based, suggested that
there should be additional clerical as.
sistance and lifting Of certain duties
from the shoulders Of those who are
charged with making the broader sur
veys.
1t was suggested that the field Of.
fees should be strengthened by afford
ing additional help for the statisti-
clans, who are responsible for the esti-
mates as to the yield In their respec-
tive states. 1t was pointed out that
the one clerical assistant did not seem
to provide adequate help in handling
the stream of reports and other in
formation which flows into the office.
1t was recommended that there
should be at least one experienced
statistician, who might devote his en-
tire time to the supervision Of these
crop reports without being required
to undertake any administrative work.
Mr. Estabrook stated that the COM
mittee expressed the belief that a
more substantial travel allowance
should be afforded to permit the field
statisticians to get first-hand informa-
tion from observing the growing crops.
Financial Deficiency Overcome.
On July / an appropriation of $9O,-
600 became available for the develop
ment of the live stock reporting sys.
TEN. While this money will be spent
to insure more dependable estimate
of live stock, 1t will be of some indi
rect aid to the crop reporting service.
With these new funds each field
statistician will have two clerical as.
sistants instead Of one. The same
field statistician will be utilized, how
ever. Sufficient funds have been pro-
vided to make It possible for the field
agents to travel over the territory in
their states, 1t was added, so that this
deficiency, which was assigned as the
principal cause for the 1921 crop
blunder, has been overcome.
1t is planned to bring one or more
Of the most expert field statisticians
TO Washington to serve In the central
Office. The department will insist that
they spend the entire time In develop
ing the technique, or the finer points,
of the system. There Is to be at least
one research statistician, who will not
be concerned with anything other than
the examination and analysis Of the
data.
It is recognized, the head Of tho
crop reporting system said, that not
enough has been done to work out
what the effect of weather is upon
crop yields. A technical statistician
is to be assigned to the task of cor
relating the effect Of this and other
factors upon the results that ulti-
mately obtain. This is a precise study,
according to the official view. and Of
fers perhaps the most interesting pos
sibilities Of the various reflnemeuts
suggested.
Eskimo DwsIis In sweIterIng Heat.
The explorer Stefansson spent flvs
years In the Arctic mapping out terri