New-York tribune., 1922-05-31
Survey Shows
Republicans
Hold Congress
Heavy Losses in House Ma.
jority of I68 Expected,
bu, Leaders Consider
Sacrifice an ADVANTAGE
Little Change in Senate
Lalder's Reelection Con.
ceded Unless Smith Runs:
n. y. Democrats Hopeful
By Carter Field

WASHINGTON, May So.-A careful
canvass OF the situation in not only
every doubtful state, but in every
doubtful district, has been made BY
the leaders of the two parties. and,
while both sides naturally are claim
ing everything in sight, it seems vir-
tually certain that President Harding
Will be sustained during the second two
years OF his term by Republican major
tiles in both Houses Of Congress.
The real fight, of course, is for the
House of Repres The pres
ent unweldy Republican majority, the
result of the Harding landslide of 1920,
VIII, of course, be cut tremendously.
Every Republican member naturally
wants to keep his seat, but the Repub-
Ilcan leaders say frankly that they
would much rather have working ma
Jorlty of around fifty than the nearly
two hundred lead they now have. A
big majority lends itself naturally to
the development of blocs and to insur-
gency in general
The New York situation is givin,
much concern to both parties. boil
as to House and Senate The Demo
Gratis are absolutely confident of gain
ing at least seven seats in the House
and speak of breaking into the up
state for additional gains. They point
to the recent election in the Thirty
seventh District, for the vacanc.
caused by the resignation of Alanzor
B. Haughton to be Ambassador to Ger
many. Houghton's majority in 1926
was about 10000 The Republican ma
jority last month was in the neiehbor-
hood Of 1000. The normal Republican
majority is around $4,000.
Liquor Issue n Complication
AS a matter of fact, the liquor issue
so split ordinary party lines in this
fight that it is impossible to draw any
accurate conclusions, save that the
towns of the district are wet, and tn,
country section dry. This does not pre-
vent the Democrats drawing great COM
fort, for they expect all the side issues
this year, all over the country, to play
in their favor, as is usually the case
with the party out of power.
House reports from all over the
country, analysed without regard to
any particular sentiment for or against
Harding, but purely on local conditions
IN the Congressional districts, have
been received here, and from them q
perfectly cold analysis indicates a pos
sible loss by the Republicans of sixty
five seats, with an outside possibility
OF the loss rising to 76.
On the latter basis the Republican
lead in the House would be cut from
l6S over the Democrats to 49, This
is scarcely likely, however, as the cal
culation gives the benefit of all the
political breaks" to the Democrats.
Besides the seven seats in New York
the Democratic gains are figured on the
sixty-five gain basis, as follows:
California, 2; Colorado, /; Connect.
cut, 2; Illinois, 3; Indiana, 2; Kansas
l.; Kentucky. /; Maryland, /; Massa,
chusetts, 2; Michigan, |; Missouri, 12;
Montana, l; Nebraska, 2; Nevada, /:
New Jersey, 8; North Dakota, /; Ohio
q, Oklahoma, 2; Pennsylvania, 4; Rhode
Island, l; TENNESSEE, s; Texas, !:
Washington, /; West Virginia, 2.
On the seventy-fve basis the allow.
ance is increased to four in Illinois
three in Indiana, two in Kansas, two in
Montana, three in Nebraska, four in
New Jersey, ten in Ohio, six in Penn
sylvanla and two in Washington.
Socialists Conceded One
In addition reports show the Hkeli.
hood of the Republicans LOSING one
member, Stafford, in Wisconsin, to .
Socialist candidate
SO the political leaders in both par
ties, seeing the possibility of close
election, so far as the House of Repre-
sentatives is concerned, are busily be-
stirring them selves.
On the Senate side the odds are over
whelmlngly in favor of the Republi.
cans: The present majority in the Sen,
ate is Y, due to the large number of
republican Senators from Democratic
ana close states elected for six yea,
terms in the Harding landslide of 1920
Notable among these are Weller. OF