Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial., 1922-11-03

tYit.ons and the apathy OF many thou
sands of voters. Republican experts
who arc betting their money that way
distribute the vote 10 be cast next
Tuesday az follows:
Miller Smith
Manhattan ....... $4,000 100000
frookIyn .......... l-"'ooO -%o'Vou
Bronx .. $4,000 $4,000
Queens . $4,000 10000
Nchmond ........ 1O,oOO lo'VVV
ON these figures MIR. Smith would
have n lead OF 200. 900 without taking
into consideration the Socialist vote
or the success Of the leaders Of that
party in polling tho great bulk ot 1t
FOR their own candidates Socialist
leaders claim that the Democrats bid
Tor voters OF SocialiSTic eympathIee
Will result in the Socialist candidates
receiving in excess OF 100000 votes,
which VIII work 10 the advantage OF
Mr.. Miller rather than 20 that Of Mr..
Smith.
Democratic leaders find good deal
or comfort in the Information that
comes TO them from upstate centers
which they interpret TO indicate un-
precedonted gains for tho Democratic
candidate and unusual losses Tor the
Republican. Democratic statistic.aus
experience no trouble IN discovering
that Mr.. Miller viii not receive more
than 100000 majority over Mr.. Smith
IN the upstate districts.
Most OF the information on which
this estimate IS built comes from
Democrats leaders of Buffalo, SYRIA
cuse. Rochester. Elmira. Albany and
Troy. where great many citizens who
are normally Republican are said
90 favor the Democratic candidate on
the alleged five cent fare issue and
the wine and beer platform policies
advocated by Mr. smith.
Tho Democratic figures avo in direct
conflict with those assembled through
ltrruhicau agencies. The managers
fur NJ. Mailer SEQ un reason to justly
the Democrats, prediction 'ha; h.~ MAJ
1or..y north of Tho ErauN W. itil IS
low as .0O. 600. They assert that a
careful canvass of ups state districts
indicates that Mr.. Miller Will poll
within a few thousand 81 the $4,000
votes he received in that section two
years ago and that the total Will be
mum allowance conceded TO Mr.. Smith
sn the nature OF a plurality in Greater
Now York.
Republican leaders admit that there
are one or two weak spots up
State. but say these are confined to
some OF the larger cities and Will T.
negatived by the Republican show.rS
.n the rural districts.
Tammany Predictions.
Tammany predictions are pred
Gated on the theory that there will Ice
a landslide in the city for Mr.. Smith.
Estimates Of a Smith lead Of 100000
over Mr.. Miller IN the city are not
unusual figures quoted in arguments
90 prove the vote getting power Of the
Democratic nominee. This figure is
quoted among brokers in the Wal
street district. a. uptown clubs and
hotels, and in neighborhood centcrs
where the admirers Of Mr.. Smith joy
ously proclaimed his ultimate return
20 Albany under spectacular circum-
stances.
Former Csty Chamberlain Alfred J
johnson. who IS regarded as an az
thority in election contests, said yes
terday that he would not he SURPRISED
n Mr.. Smith beat the Hylan rec rC
hy IS 600. so that his majority will b'
not far from half a million. Mr.. John
son hased his estimate on a system q
postcard tabulation Of key centers
sn the metropolis and in several sec
tons OF the State. His conclusion j.
that Mr.. Smith will have $50 900 plu
ral.ty over all.
Republican managers ecof at III
Democratic predictions that Mr.. Smith
will receive - excess Of 275,000 plu
ral.ty in the city Jesse l. Phillips
former insurance superintendent. VIII,
r. a close student OF rural polithca
condition. and an authority 20 whom
the betting contingent looks for in
formation. said yesterday that CIV
Miller will bring down 10 The Bron,
enough OF a lead 20 give him the dc
v.Sion over Mr.. Smith by 100000 ma
jority."
Despite the extravaganza on bOtl
sides Of the argument the betting OF
the Gubernatorial race. WIN .ch is mo
nopollZing popular attention 70 the ex
clusion OF The. Senatorial and Con
gressional contests. hangs consist
entity around even money. This IN il
self IS an indication OF a lack Of OK
pert confidence in the various poll
and canvases which provide u Nvel
topic Of discussion among ala classe
Of citizens in every part OF the Stat,
Even Money Proposition.
In the betting market Mr.. Smit
rules the favorite al odds OF II 20 !
or thereabout. Enthusiasts who ~
poverned more by their emotions tina
by Judgment have wagered as high a
Is 20 10. but at no time during IN
campaign have the odds on elthc
Gov. Miller or Mr. Smith mounted a
high as 20 !. IL the Tamany flg
ures are right impartial experts O
the percentage system figure that tn
odds on Mr.. Smith should be az lea,
20 J. IL the Republican est!mat,
are correct the same experts say tbs
Mr.. Miller should be around a 10
fayorite" IN the betting
The trouble with most q the pol
and canvas.see taken both IN the ci,
and upstate distrlcto is said by 81
J-ar-ts 20 be that they do not refie,
che attitude OF many thousands OF IL
dependents and ignore completely II
Protest vote" which the Soc.aal,
leaders assert will be cast for the car
dldates of their party.
A betting expert Of Tamany il
Clu8tions and an associate WI
usually votes for Republican cand
dates in Presidential and State ele'