East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1922-03-06
Article on Wheat
is iS.Reconn7ended
by County Agent

u the fdfsn JouTuai. Is CndfdCtefLcu i
by Fred Bennion. county agent. as one |
Of the most comprehensive articles on
wheat ever published.
The article. which is from the pen
Of B. W. Snow. is as follows:
Are we upon a domestic basis in
wheat? or have we already over-ex-
ported. and do we no wface short
tic use? Or have we grossly underes-
timated our 1921 wheat crop2 There
was never greater uncertainty in our
bread grain situation, never wider diff
ferences of opinion. and never greater
possibilities of economic trouble over
bread shortage. than exists at this
time. Whether we consider the wheat
auestion from the broad viewpoint of
a world problem or from the narrow
view of domestic situation, it is
marked by uncertainty tinged with ap-
hension.
The data of wheat production and
4 distribution are more complete than
of any other staple farm product ex-
cept cotton. and yet at best it is largely
a matter of estimate, deduction and
personal opinion. The foundation is
of course the size of the crop, and that
is simply guess, both in this country
and in the rest of the world. The
whole question Of supply, therefore.
Il comes down to a matter of personal
opinion. .t-..4
4 In the matter of distribution and
use we have more and better informa-
tion, but it is only exact upon few
points. 1t furnishes. however, basis
for checking up on the estimates of
poduction, confirming our estimates
or proving them wrong-about the
same as circumstantial evidence in the
law courts.
81 Supplies and Necessities Closely
Balanced.
II With Russia no longer supplying
wheat for world use. the balance be-
tween maximum world supplies ard
minimum world food requirements is
: 80 close that any shortage in any oi
the other surplus wheat countries al
once creates a world food problem
For this reason we need study .only
our own domestic situation, because Il
we are short here the world will bt
lshort very soon. The fact is to be de
: ternined is which of the three posi-
bilities given in the opening paragraph
represents today the real wheat stu
alton In the United States.
To find the supply of wheat avail
able for the furrent cereal year, W,
hA
innate for 1921, as made by the de
partment of agriculture, of 795, 10000.
! 600 bushels. To this must be adde,
farm stocks of old wheat July /. 1921
by the same authority, of $1,000, 90,
bushels; country mill and elevato
stocks at the same date of $4,000, 90,
bushels; stocks at terminals of 5000.
600 bushels, and wheat imported from
Canada for domestic use, amounting
at this writing to about 100000
bushels,
Our exports of wheat and flou
from July l to date total 225 900, ,OO
bushels, the months of January an,
February being estimated. Seed al
ready used for winter wheat and re
served for spring seeding amounts t.
80, 100000 bushels. How much of tn
remaining 100000 bushels ha
been used for food? For this ther,
can be no exact data. For many year
the department Of agriculture accept
a ed four and two-thirds bushels pc
: capita as a standard consumption al
! lowance, and upon that basis for
long period. the estimates of produc
tion and the figures of distribution
tailed very closely. During the wa
the U s. Grain Corporation controlle,
i the distribution of the wheat crop
u and from its records worked out pc
s capita consumption or about four an,
one-half bushels. AS wartime con
sumption was reduced by enforce,
economy, and by use of other grains
prefer to accept the higher allow
ance.
How Much Wheat Do We Eat?
Some authorities allow rate abov
tive and one-quarter bushels, but thi
is merely deduction from estimate
of production in recent years, and
n do not regard 1t as at all reliable. Fo
example, the same method of calcula
. ton gives a result of 10 bushels pc
bcapta in 1915, and only 3.6 bushels il
1915, which is absurd. Many year
ago, examined large number O
: household schedules gathered by tn
bureau of labor, fair average sched
ules, and the result OF the analyst
was a flour consumption very closel,
supporting the four and two-thirds of
ficial allowance then in use. ~
For these reasons prefer, for tn,
present, to accept the old standard foi
individual consumption. Upon thil
basis we haye food use from July tt
February. inclusive. of 1900, ,OOt
bushels. Records of the u. S., Grair
Corporation show farm disappear,
ance chargeable to feed or wastagt
that is fairly represented by 20,000, ,00(
bushels. These two items total S44,.
100000 bushels, which deducted from
the available SITS, 900, 900 leaves in all
positions on March /, 1929, about 234, ;.
+ 10000 bushels. The new 1922 cror
can not be really available until July
l, SO that we have in all positions 2S4,.
10000 bushels to meet the consump.
ton Of four months, March tC
June 80.
Food and Exports for Four Months.
The imperative requirement for that
period is domestic food: this we must
have; the secondary requirements in
order of their Importance are (1)
enough safety stocks carried over to
fully bridge the junction between the
old crop and the new, and (2) supplies
for additional export sales. Consump-