Albuquerque morning journal., 1922-12-17
THINKS BUILDING
WILL CONTINUE
ON LARGE SCALE
Apartment Construction
May Have Reached Its
Limit, But There Is a De-
mand for Other Structures
(By CHARLES s. KETTHn

(By CHARLES s. KEITH)
Washington, Dec. 16.--As
contribution to the general dis
cussion of whether the present
revival OF prosperity and employ
ment is merely a spurt of "sec-
ondary initiation" soon to be fol-
lowed by long period of busi-
ness lethargy and unemployment,
or the beginning of true period
OF business activity, the National
Lumber Manufacturers associa-
ton has made public digest OF
statement made on request by
Charles S. Keith, of Kansas City,
one OF the largest lumber oper-
ators and business men of the
south and the Pacific coast, and
a recognized authority on indus
trial economic conditions. Mr..
Keith is confident that construc-
| ton on a large scale will con-
tinue for a number of years anu
that the lumber industry will con-
tinue at the present level of ae-
tivity for the next five years, with
the implication that the whole
country and all commerce and
| Industry will be very active, with
an abundance of employment,
Demand for Buildings.
Il think that perhaps apart
ment building construction has
reached its limit for the time he4
ing" says Mr.. Keith, but there
Is demand for buildings which
may not represent as many dol4
lars as the apartments, but will
involve a large demand for lum-
Der, and call for steadily eIn-
ployed construction labor. I re-
fer to the nationwide tendency
back to the small house on the
part Of flat-dwellers. For a time
there will not be much factory
building, as the country was over
built in this respect during the
war. II there should be q de-
cline in building in the cities.
am satisfied that so far as luln-
Der is concerned the Industrial
consumption and the demand
from agricultural districts will
more than absorb any reduction
in housing construction. Incident
ally, [ notice that 10000 rail-
way freight cars have been cor
tracted for this year, which is, 7
think, the largest number since
lSO7.' Speaking broadly, my opin-
ion is that the building situation
has not been scratched. Even II
my conclusion in this respect is
in error the changing conditions
of the lumber industry are such
that it will be taxed to the ut
most on the whole to meet the
demands that will be placed upon
1t. L refer to the declining lurn-
Der mill capacity and production
of the south, owing to the pro-
gressive depletion of the timber
supply of that section. The de-
cline of production there from
now on will doubtless proceed
faster than the expansion Of ca
pacity ana production in the
west.
"A canvass of the southern pine
producing territory was made by
the Southern Pine association in
1919, covering 5,4O1 mills with
an annual capacity of 16 billion
feet. The apparent rate of de-
pletion of timber revealed by this
canvass, if realized in actual
practice during the last four
years, means that the annual
lumber production capacity has
been reduced approximately g.
250,000,000 feet in the south.
Furthermore, the outlook, as
as shown by that survey. is that
the lumber production of the
south will decline 4,S50,000,00O
feet more in the next five years.
Already the effect of the con-
striction of the southern lumber
supply is reflected in the full
operating time of the west coast
mills this year, together with q
reduction of their stocks to the
lowest point in seventeen years.
Pacific Coast Production
"On the other hand there has
been little increase in the pro-
ductive capacity of the Pacific
coast since before the war. It's
future increase will necessarily
be slow compared with the inev-
table decline of production in the
south, and nothing like as rapid
as the expansion of production
in the south in the later nineties
as the northern and eastern lum-
Der SuppUeS 1eIl OH.
"The costs Of opening up tim
her stands on the west coast are
enormously greater than in the
south and the climatic conditions
distance from markets, etc., are
such that whereas an invest
ment of $3.50 per thousand feet
of production. on the basis of rs
years of operation, sufficed at the
time of the depletion Of the tim
ber of the north ard the early
rapid development of the indus
try in the south, it takes over
500 per thousand feet of annual
production capacity to capitalize
a typical numbering enterprise on
the Pacific coast. This capital
will be gathered slowly, and
probably only after O number of
years OF profitable business with
out extensive engagements.
again, 1t is to be remarked
that at the same time the south's
lumber production is decreasing
its home consumption Of lumber
Is Inc ing, due to agricultural
and ~ ufacturing growth. In
five years, If the depletion OF the
timber supply proceeds as is in
ferable from the analysis mem
toned above, it is not at all
improbable that the great bulk
of the softwood lumber produced
In the south will be consumed in
the territory south of the Ohio,
Missouri and Potomac rivers,
making practically all of the ter
ritory north Of those rivers and
east OF the Rocky mountains de-
pendent for its lumber require
ments on the west coast mills.