The Washington herald., 1922-08-27
Ireland. which may have disastrous

Ireland. which may have disastrous
! consequences in a later time.
France, on the contrary. emerg
ing from the war the greatest suf-
ferer, has in all respects except one
seen her position improve. Since
France is a self-contained country,
producing most of all she consumes.
the destruction of world markets
has not materially affected her She
can. with her nearby African col
onies feed herself. ana the recon-
quest of Alsace-Lorraine has pro-
vided her with a large part of the
iron ore of the European continent
She is fiscally bankrupt. as she has
been at many periods before in her
long and varied history, but fiscal
bankruptcy may easily prove far
less disastrous than complete de-
pendence upon foreign markets for
livelihood.
Politically the situation of
Fihnce is more attractive than at
any period since 1870 and, in fact,
since 1915, when the fall of Napo-
leon ushered in a century of
French observation. There is at
the present time no counterbalance
to French military power. and
France has been able to group
about her a number of secondary
! powers. all possessing considerable
armies and each having strong ma
tional reasons for seeing French
policy prevail both with respect
of Russia and more particularly
of Germany.
The thing that Americans are
slow to recognize is that EuISpean
political conditions have reverted
to something of the state revealed
in the seventeenth and eighteenth
centuries when the paralysis of
Germany made France the su-
preme land power.
II one can believe that present
conditions will lead to the complete
prostration and disruption of Ger
many then 1t is a perfectly simple
conclusion that we are in for an
other long period of French su-
premacy upon the European con-
tinent. Of Anglo-French rivalry in
the woSld. The idea rather wide
ly held in the United States that
France Is dying power with
declining population Is quite in
exact. In reality the French pop
ulation is neither declining nor
quite stationary, while the expan-
sion of French rule in Africa has
provided the French with a we'll
nigh inexhaustible source of re-
cruits.
French Insist Germany Pay.
l do not find any evidence OF
militaristic or imperialistic ambi-
tions among the mass of the
FSnch people. who after all, con-
troll French policy. But everyone
can find in France at once a de-
termination not to permit Ger
many to win the war by evading
the costs of French reconstruction
and saddling France with intoler-
able burdens. In practice this
works out into more or less
tacit determination that Germany
shall pay or be prevented from
recovering. Frenchmen feel that
il they are paid they can get on.
even If Germany recovers, and If
Germany does not recover, the DO
sltion of France even If she is not
paid will be possible
The new states which are rising
In Europe. Poland, Czecho- -Slovakia.
Jugo-Slavia and Rumania are both
Francophile normally and have very
strong material reasons for dread
ing the recovery of Germany as has
Belgium. Since Italy, has more
over. definitely ranged herself
against France, the Southern Slavs
for whom the Adriatfc question Is
always vital, have added reason for
standing with France.
Must Find CounterbaIance.
All British policy henceforth must
be based upon the effort to estab-
lish a counterbalancing combina-
tion of powers in the world which
shall restrain France. At the WASH
fngton conference, as at Paris, Brit
ish effort concentrated upon Amer
lea. At the Genoa conference the
, effort was to enlist continental
states. At Washington the British
, were successful in enlisting ap-
t proval but not material assistance.
= Genoa by contrast was a complete
= British failure and even a genuine
, disaster
r The separation of France and
Britain practically exhausts the last
chance Of German payment and
with this circumstance goes the in
evitable veto of France upon Ger
man reconstruction. Since Ger
many today. is, after all, rather in
the state of an exhausted swimmer er
still far from shore and doomed un-
/ less assisted. French military action
Is not essential to Insure German
; collapse. The time is at hand. If
1t has not arrived, when assistance
, will be too late and resuscitation
. impossible. And the mere total col
, lapse of Germany must put France
, In a position politically, which can
hardly be challenged for one or
r tw9 decades at the least.
r French Power Unchecked.
To sum up, 1t seems to me that
we are on the edge of a new period
in European history. Time may see
vast changes and make possible
. new coalitions like those which con-
: 1uered at Blenheim and Waterloo.
Jut for the rnomepf Er~oct, nexv.,.