Connecticut western news., 1922-08-10
BUSINESS HAS TURNED
 THE CORNER 1! Babson, the Statistician, Shows Why Fundamentals Finally
 Justify Optimism

The high light of the Ninth An nual Wellesley Conference now meet ing here for the discussion of con- ditions and business problems, was reached when Roger w. Babson ness and showed why fundamental conditions indicate definite and sub- stantial business recovery.
 Standing before a Babsonchart twelve feet high and thirty feet long MT. Babson explained the situation.
 'I have been waiting for over two years to be able to announce that the most drastic depression in busi- ness history has spent itself. Fun damental conditions finally indicate that a solid foundation is ready for general and substantial business improvement.
 "The white line that I draw today divides the area of depression Tn half. Satisfactorily it means we are at the exact bottom of the cycle. Practically it means that business will pick up this fall and that it should continue to improve for the next two or three years.
 Technically, the business cycle is composed of the four succeeding cycles of Prosperity, Decline, De- pression, and Improvement, but the average business man experiences but two conditions. Either sales are increasing and business is fine or they are falling off and he is in deep depression. His attitude changes, not as we pass from a period of prosperity above the K Y Line into a period of depression below, but as the white lines are drawn which divide these areas-when business changes it's direction.
 "When we had completed half of the depression in the middle of 1904, business began to improve and business men went into a state of psychological prosperity almost over night. We were running below nor nal to be sure, but things were again headed in the right direction.
 Early in 1907 the panic set in and business confidence practically disappeared. We did not enter the actual area of depression until the fall of that same year.
 "In April 1908 another white line marked the turning point and things boomed again until the long swing downward set in about June 1910. This decline, while not drastic, kept business quiet until the middle of 1914, when things again turned up- ward. The war with it's feverish activity carried us on until the middle of 1918 when the actual rise had spent itself. Rabid speculation and soaring prices put things up for another spurt but actual production and general business activities were softening. The natural apd inevi- table reaction has kept buSiness in mourning for two and hal4 years.
 ''The white line just drawn marks another turn for the better. Busi- ness is again headed in the right direction and you can go ahead with your plans. The banker can now loan with better confidence. The business man should announce his new product, open his new territory, increase his advertising, and go after business now!
 'In spite of the fact that the stock market has already discounted the improvement to a large extent the investor can hold his stocks for the top of a bull market which is'almost never reached until after the white line is drawn and general confidence has been restored. "I personally believe", concluded MT. Babson, "that the present market is little over half way to the top"
 General Business continues to inn prove. The index of the Babson- chart reflects an improvement of 22o since last week and stands at 9es below normal. The highest point since January 1921.