Mohave County miner and our mineral wealth., 1922-07-07
pABS0N, stst;stieian E3mGes ID on Business Conditions

Wellesley Hills, Mass, July 8, 1922. In discussing the general situation for the week Roger w. Babson the statis- tician today made the following an- alysis of the Crop Outlook.
 To-day interest is centered around the prospective 1922 crop output. l cannot over-estimate the importance of agricultural products at this time, not only as business barometer, but as the means of restoring confidence and higher spending power in those sections that suffered most acutely during this depression period. I have travelled thru the grain and cotton areas and know the farmer carried more than his share of the readjust- ment responsibilities. Yet this is his- tory, and the farmer is looking for ward with considerable optimism to probable developments during the next few years.
 "The outstanding feature of the June Government Report is that acreage of all wheat, oats, and rye is 2.296 less than a year ago, but the estimated yield is 17.19o greater. This means that growing conditions are comparatively favorable. have yet to witness a year where crop scares and marked price fluctuations did not materialize. Weather and in sect ravages cannot be forecast, but as conditions now stand, the total grain output should about equal nor mai proportions. The winter wheat crop is now being harvested, the yield estimated at 3.4% over 1921.
 Spring wheat figures are placed at 1S.S% more than year ago, with, the total considerably in excess of the te n-year average. Nevertheless, wheat is satisfactorily strong. Our ex- portable surplus for the current year was placed at 55,000,000 bushels. Ac- tual exports for the season approached 265, 100000 bushels. The relatively large crop is entirely offset by the limited carry-over. Australian and Argentine stocks are also limited. True, the price level of wheat is high compared with corn and oats. Wheat, however, is the natural leader and I would make one point clear; namely, that until Russia is again in position to feed great portion of Europe, the price of wheat in this country will re main high.
 "The number of acres devoted to oats is 6.7fo under year ago. Still the prospective output is 2396 more. The estimated yield of 1,305,000,O00 bushels about equals the ten-year av- craze. It is well-known that oat prices are fundamentally too low. Considering the limited crop of a year ago and heavy consumption on the farms, the carry-over promises to rule far under normal proportions. This phase is not dieounted by the present price level. I anticipate a higher price level for oats during the 1922-23 season. The rye crop shows the most radical developments of all. Acreage is 13.3% over last year, while the prospective yield shows an in crease of 409o. With the exception of 1918, this is the largest figure on record. There is no fundamental reason why rye should not follow the general trend of agricultural products.
 "With the advent of the new crop a marked price elevation is not logi- cal. Still no serious price decline should eventuate this fall. and the 1922-23 seasonal rise should be more pronounced than in the season about to close. The Babson Agricultural In- dex of ten leading products is now quoted at 14S, which shows 28-point rise over the low during the fall of 1921. The elevation in agricultural products has already increased the spending power of the farmer. It should be remembered that 1922 pro- ducing costs-labor, fertilizer and transportation-are ranging on al more popular basis compared with recent years. Therefore, with good crops and higher average price over the next year, the farmers income is bound to return gradually to nor mal.
 q am particularly interested in cotton. The condition is now estimat- ed around 70, which compares with a ten-year average of 75. Last years | crp was the smallest in modern his try, yet the record carry-over consti- tuted a total figure that successfully