Alma record. (Alma, Mich.) 1878-1928, 1922-07-13
bABS0N ON THE
+ CROP OUTLOOK
FAMOUS STATISTICIAN DISCUS
SEES CROP OUTLOOK FOR
THE RECORD.

for the week Roger w. Babson the
statistical today made the following
analysis Of the Crop Outlook.
To-day interest is centcred around
the prospective 1922 crop output.
cannot over-estimate the Importance
of agricultural products at this time,
not only as a business barometer,
but as the means Of restoring conf
dence and a higher spending power
in those sections that suffered most
acutely during this depression period
l have travelled thru the grain and
cotton areas and know the farmer
carries more than his share Of the
REIMBURSEMENT responsibilities. Yet
this is history, and the farmer is
looking forward with considerable
optimism to probable developments
during the next few years.
THE outstanding feature Of the
June Government Report is that acre
age Of all wheat, oats, and rye is
, pc, less than a year ago, but the
estimated yield is l1rCe greater
This means that growing conditions
are comparatively favorable. | have
yet to witness year where crop
scares and marked price fluctuations
did not materialize. Weather and
insect ravages cannot lie forecast,
but as conditions now stand the total
grain output should about equal nor
NAL proportions. The winter wheat
crop is now being harvested, the
yield estimated at 3 .4r,r over 1921.
Spring wheat figures are placed
at Is $50 more than a year ago, with
the total considerably in. excess of the
ten year average, nevertheless wheat
is statistically strong. Our export
able surplus for the current year was
placed at 255,000,0OO bushels, but
actual exports for the season APP
preached 2G5, O00,00 bushels. The
relatively large crop is entirely off
set by the limited carryover. Austria
liam and Argentine stocks are also
limited. True, the price level Of wheat
Is high compared with corn and
oats. Wheat, however is the natural
leader and would make one point
clear; namely, that until Russia is
again in a position to feed a great
portion of Europe, the price of
wheat in this country Will remain
high.
"The number of acres devoted to
oats is G.7f, under a year ago.
Still the prospective output is 23ft
more. The estimated yield Of 1905,
100000 bushels about equals the ten
year average. It is well-known that
oat prices are fundamentally too low.
Considering the limited crop of a year
ago and heavy consumption on the
farms, the carry-over promises to
rule far under normal proportions
This phase is not discounted by the
present price level ! anticipate a
higher average price level for oats
during the 1929 season. The rye
crop shows the most radical develop
ments Of all. Acreage is 1880 over
last year, while the prospective
yield shows an increase Of 400.
With the exception Of 1913, this is
the largest figure On record. There
is no fundamental reason why rye
should not follow the general trend
Of agricultural products
with the advent Of the new crop
a marked price elevation is not logi-
cal. Still no serious price decline
should eventuate this fall, and the
1929 seasonal rise should be more
pronounced than i'm the season about
TO close. The Babson Agricultural In
dex of ten leading products is now
quoted at l4S which shows 2S-point
rise over the low during the fall of
1921. The elevation in agricultural
products has already increased the
spending power Of the farmer. Il
should be remembered that 1922 pro-
ducing costs, labor fertilizer and
transportation, are ranging on a
more popular basis cmpared with re-
cent years. Therefore, with good crops
and a higher average price over the
next year, the farmers income is
bound to return gradually to normal.
Il am particularly interested in
cotton. The condition is now estimat-
~ ttVNAih ~ WHICH compares " ltli
a ten-year average of Is. Last
years crop was the smallest in mod
ern history, yet the record carry-over
constituted a total figure that sue
cessfully COPIED with the curtailed
European and domestic demand.
This year the oarry-over is nearly
back to normal proportions and a
crop in excess Of II 100000 bales is
now indicated. This means that the
total supply is about equal to last
years figure, but the potential de-
mand is greater.
Europe has been taking between
100000 and 100000 bales since
1919, concluded Mr. Babson. "The
pre-war figure was between 100000
and 100000 bales. Europe must
buy raw cotton in greater quantity if
she is to maintain supremacy in the
finished product. With the settle
ment Of the present textile strike,
domestic consumption will be higher,
not lower. theoretically there is a
world shortage Of cotton and until
the statistical position Is corrected, a