The Washington herald., 1922-02-05

postponed indefinitely, since we have
given hostages in the shape Of q
renunciation OF the sovereign right
to fortify Guam and the Philippines.
Unless Japan should be contemplat
ing attacking us, which Is absurd.
there Is no chance Of war, for we
have resigned all the actual power
to attack her, both by consentlng. to
limitation of our fleets and to .
ren4nciation of the right to fortify
those naval bases without which our
heet could not be used against ia
pan.
Must AID Selves.
But as between Japan and China,
Japan and Russia, the Washington
conference has not succeeded. in
making any contribution of q sim
liar nature. On the contrary, and
this fact deserves all emphasis,
the failure Of the Washington con-
ference. or more exactly the re-
fusai Of Japan at the conference,
to consent to withdraw her. forces
from China and Siberia, has served
notice on Chinese and Russians
alike that there 10 for them both
no remedy outsidee Of themselves.
The western nations have UNDER
taken to DO what they could for
them, they have, perhaps, done
something In certain directions,
but they have not been able To do
anything In the main line.
China, young China now knows
that its reliance upon the United
States to protect II against Japan
was an Illusion. It always was an
illusion because the United States
was never at any time ready to 60
to war to defend the integrity Of
China, there never was any such
duty imposed upon the United
States. But in China there has
survived, even after the Paris con-
States would save China In point
of fact nations cannot be saved IL
they are totally unable to help
themselves, and China Is in this
posture today-and Russia as well
20 far a. Siberia 10 concerned.
But the lesson cannot be lost
Some day, this decade, next de-
cade, time goes for very little,
Russia will become q nation again,
perhaps sooner than anyone thinks.
And on that day when she regains
her national strength she will find
Japan camped upon all Of her Pa
cific seaboard and perhaps by that
time having advanced to Lake
Baikal. On that day will begin .
war of deliverance. No one doubts
this, all history supports the
thesis
Lssks fer Second War.
or later will make head against
an even more odious infringement
of her national integrity. No one
the voices of the young China.
that day comes we shall have an
other Chino-Japanese war, we may
have a whole series Of them, like
the Hundred Years War which
marked the long and ultimately
successful efforts of the French to
expel the British kings from
French soil. II you want an en-
Raging parallel In past history for
the present Chino-Japanese situa-
ton you can find Il to hand In
Anglo-French history.
II Is wrong to say that the
Washington conference has direct
ly promoted war in the Far East.
This is not true, the situation was
that unless Japan, in the confer
ence renounced her predatory pol.
icy. war was bound to result. She
has not renounced 1t, on the con-
trsry she has maintained 1t. con-
sistently, one does not say sue
cessfully, because she had onSy to
hold her ground, there was no ono
and there could be no one ready to
turn her out since this meant
war. All that the conference has
done is to demonstrate that there
is no hope for the Chinese or the
Russians in conference. The
method Is not a substitute for war,
because Japan has demonstrated
that she 10 not ready to retire save
under pressure. A hope has been
extinguished, yes. The extinction
of the hope throws China back
upon herself and leads ineluetasly
to war, but war was always inevit-
able unless Japan retired, the con-
ference has not changed this situ-
alton.
Status Only Temporary.
After the conference passes, then.
we shall have In the Far East q
situation which cannot endure,
which can only be temporarily
maintained while Japan 10 strong
and China and Russia both too
weak to challenge the invader. 1t
is the old story Of the Balkans
over again. Europe had many con-
terences over the Balkans, but no
conference could succeed because
IN no conference were the rights
of the peoples of the Balkans
recognized. 1t was always certain
that when they were strong enough
the Balkan states would find for
themselves. ..
When that dav came. We had two
Balkan wars and those two Balkan
wars led straight to the world war.
But l am not attempting to prove
here that the Fur Eastern condI
tions will lead to another world
war. think We are done with
world wars for this generation at
least. What is to be seen is that
the conditions existing in the Far
East, as in the balkans a decade
ago, are intolerGbis and that, solu-
tion by conference. by peaceful
negotiation. through the aid of out
side nations having failed. we must
expect in the end that the people
most concerned win undertake TO
save themselves as the Serbs, ,he
Greeks, and the Bulsars dil just
ten years ago. ~
In my judgment then. and for
the reasons I have set forth, We
have hereafter to accept the fact
that Japanese policy i'm the Far
East makes war presently una 7or,i-
able. japan IL an, agEressor. she
has defended here in washinston
= fforfi.ueS a. p1.- rE--------