New-York tribune., 1922-03-12

Last year was ore OF the worst m
the country's history, and today the
effects of the slump are still being fels.
In 1921 Argentina suffered the sam 6
experience of all other countries a.
fected by the wars aftermath. but still
had external conditions not operated.
adversely it is certain that natural re
action after period of imitation snd
exaggerated prosperity would have been
experienced.
To-day there IS every indication that
the pendulum has swung as far as It
can go on the adverse side, and even
# these signs were not evident the
mercurial temperament Of the Argen-
tines would be due for rise and
prosperity would be assumed ard
Brought about by a sort of national de-
termination that improvement must
take place, even if there was nothing
to warrant it.
Last year Argentina exported about
100000 tons of grain less than in
1920. On December 81 the estimated
exportable surplus Of cereals were:
Wheat. 44,o93,70 bushels; corn.
46,6o0,000 bushels; linseed, $3.50, 900
bushels.
Big Wheat Harvest
MS was very big carry over, and
with prices down below what they had
been for years and no foreign demand
showing up, with a new harvest coming
in, the outlook was gloomy enough.
Argentina has had a splendid wheat
harvest, estimated at 100000 tons,
and the faxseed and corn yields are re-
ported to be well up to average
with the opening of the new year the
cereal trade suddenly became active,
and at once commerce in general as
sumed more optimistic tone. Up 30
February 9 1921, only 3,130,0n bushels
of wheat had been shipped. This year
for the same seven weeks 1890, coo
bushels were exported This sort Of
increase in the movement of staples is
quite inspiring to those looking for
some improvement in the outlook.
Linseed shipments are about the
same as last year. out there is a sub
stantial reduction in the export OF corn.
However. the year has opened we'll for
cereals and the market is full OF tone
In such exports as hides, skins and
wool, the increases are remarkable
The United States has been buying
freely and this probably accounts for
the fall in the value Of the dollar
The industry which still shows the
greatest depression, with no improve
ment promised, is the beef-raising in
dustry. There is an entire absence Of
demand for Argentine chilled and
frozen carcases Of beef or mutton and
prices of animals have dropped over 60
per cent in a year with a resulting
stagnation in enc of the chief sources
Of wealth production
What is regarded as a further
! healthy sign of the times is the reduc-
tion in the volume Of business failures
for January. The total Of liabilities
for 1921 was 144663 900 paper pesos
the highest since 1915. The liabilities
for January this year were S9,553, ,404,
we'll below the total for December; be-
low the monthly average OF 1921 and
! S3,333, 900 less than in January of last
year. This reduction suggests that the
worst OF generally bad business con-
dition has been passed.
Commodities Moving
A radical alteration has taken place
/ IN the comparative value Of the Argen-
tine gold peso and foreign units Of GU.
rency, but in no case has this bee
more marked than in the quotation f. ii.
the dollar. At par the dollar is wor
Sl.03G Argentine gold Last year Il
dollar rose as high as 1854. The To-
est quotation for the year was s12;
This year opened with the dollar abo
s1.35. To-day's quotation is S120.
The pound sterling. after being at 8
heavy premium. is also getting close to
par. The movement of our main COM
modities at reasonable prices. and the
betterment in exchange mean that
Argentinas import trade must improve
Last year q serious problem arose
when huge stocks of goods (mainly
Anlerican) could not be moved owing
to the heavy premium on dollars. A
liquidation took place that must have
! entailed serious losses. but the goods
were finally disposed OF.
Just now, however. there is again
strong demand for goods, and orders
are being freely placed. American
manufacturers should watch the stu
alton closely; take careful heed of the
reports of their Argentine representa-
tives and be prepared for active and
profitable business with this country.
The outlook for the moment is much
clearer than it has been for two year>,
past. Close study of Argentine con-
ditions warrants the belief that a
steady and substantial improvement all
around will be seen this year.