The New York herald., 1922-01-01

| ing no great fleet but the North
African colonies. which they purpose
to use as a recruiting ground for black
troops. see that their best weapon of
defense as well as offense, Is the
submarine. They have no aggres-
sive intentions. but they cannot put
out of their minds as yet the pos
sibility that their national existence
may be threatened again by Germany
in combination with Russia or that
they will have to put military pres
sure on Germany to avoid their own
bankruptcy in case of a German de-
fault. In that case, Great Britain
might not be willing to support them,
and In that case their submarines
would be very useful.
There is something brutal In stat
ing ihe case so clearly. but people who
are trying to avoid world calamties
must be brutal in their investigation
of the causes of calamity.
Russia and Polnnd.
Russia, for instance, has a stand
.ng army Of a million men or there
abouts with four million more in re-
serve. Nothing would please the Rus
sian rulers better than to demobilize
those men. But they are afraid of the
Polish army of six hundred thousand,
and afraid of revolt and anarchy from
within. The Poles keep their army in
being for the same reason. They are
afraid of Russian attacks inspired by
a desire to get back the means Of eco
nomic life and esta blish by force trade
relations with the rest OF Europe. All
of these fears are. In my opinion, fan
tastic bogeys at the present time, for
Germany is totally incapable of mill
tary aggression or resistance Russia
is ruined and starving, with broken
transport and no reserves OF any kind,
and needs peace above all things for
her very life. and France will have no
need of submarines in the near future,
not in the distant future If she modi-
fies her European policy by some few
concessions to the vital needs of Brit
ain, which depends for life on the re-
covery of the European markets.
Nevertheless, so long as those fears
prevail there will be no security in the
world and no recovery.
II is Washington's great chance In
this new year to lead the way to the
throttling of these fears. ] believe
Harding and Hughes have the courage
10 hunt those bogeys to their lairs, and
1t will be good hunting In my be-
lief the key to the whole situation of
world peace now Is In Russia. | have
held that belief for three years, and
hold II more strongly now after my
visit to Russia.
Would Assure Peace.
II the United States. Great Britain,
| France and Germany were TO offer CO.
operation In the reconstruction OF
Russia on generous terms In return
! for absolute guarantees OF Russian de-
mobilization OF her armies and propa-
ganda, with counter guarantees that
Poland would disarm and that there
would he no interference with the in
ternal politics of Russia. provided they
maintained a civilized code and granted
political liberty TO their people-an
)ffer which believe. would be ac-
cepted and carried out-most OF the
misery in central Europe would be
! relieved.
Not rapidly. alas. but surely. Be
1 tore the war Russia imported 70 per
I cent. of her manufactured goods. Now
! she wants l00 per cent. Before the
war. out of every ten loaves eaten in
English households the wheat for one
came from Russia. Germany would be
able to pay moe in reparatlons il she
had American and British capital in
cooperation with her industry on be-
m G.
port systems Russia would be able to
feed her people and pay back In tim
Der. furs, hides. oil and grain.
The rehabilitation and recovery OF
Russia and Poland would help the
Baltic nations and all of the rest OF
Europe 20 enduring peace and re-
Wving trade France would get her
payments from Germany, and by this
trade cooperation with her old enemy.
-ouid be n ore easy In her mind. Ger
many. dependent for her good be-
he financial credit of the
United states and Britain, would find
insured by peace.
That is my little pet theory for the
mex, step in the way of peace. / be-
love il may happen in 1922. and al
ready there is private talk OF some
such scheme between BRAND and Lloyd
George and between the Ambassadors
VI Britain. Germany and the United
states II would be the biggest thing
10 happen in the history of the world
II would make a merry and happy
New Year In England above all coun-
tries. where this Christmastide has
been spoiled by the wretchedness Of
unemployed men. by the stagnation OF
trade in all the industrial cities, by
deep anxietles.
Copyright. 1921. Mcclure Newspaper
Syndicate.