Evening star., 1922-12-31
TWO GREAT EUROPEAN
CRISES FORESHADOW WAR
Turko.British Conflict Sure if Lausanne
Fails-Poincare May Trade on English
Necessity to Aid France.

, venation at the expense of reduced
reparationS figures or the surrender
of French tenure in the Rhineland'
This has been the French policy since
the war and woe be unto any govern
ment that dares defy the wishes OF
the French people in eXactfng the
last pound Of flesh from the Germans
Too much credence cannot be
placed in the possibility of sue
cessful parley in Paris over repara-
tions unless the allies get together,
and it is believed that Poincare will
use Britain's necessity in the near
east as trading material and press
homo his advantage that he may OBJ
tain for France what France desires
in Germany.
Bonar Law NJ CroSsrOntis.
Bonar Law undoubtedly is at the
crossroads, and unless he takes a
, firm stand against both the French
occupat ation of further German terri
tory and against the Turks he is
sure to be the target of rccrimination
throughout Great Britain. Mere dip
lomatic sop will not be tolerated in
England. There must be some re-
deeming features-and there would
be none in compromising the firm
British stand against further French
,, occupation of German territory, IL
being believed in Great Britain that
such move would but lead to perman-
ent French tenure md the creation
of wounds that would not survive FOR
decades and be th;. cause of future
wars between Fra ace and Germany.
| If the French % carry out their in
a
between London and Paris, and IL In
the future the French should find the
Germans and the Russians arrayed
against them in Il conflict germinat-
ing In present French ambitions. 1t is
not likely that Britain would assist
her as she did in the world war.
But with a breakdown of the LAau-
same parley England Will have
enough to think about without con-
sidering at great length other ex-
ploitS on the continent proper.
Turks More Insolent.
During the week the Turks at Lau-
Same have grown more insolent In
their demands, have again scattered
agreements to the forewinds and de-
| manded. for a second time in the life
of the pariey. the surrender of the
Mosul with its oil regions. The sur
render of the Mosul means the aban-
donment by the British of their man
date over this Kurdish territory, the
going back on their promise to sup
port the kingdom, of lrak, the Arabic
domain in which Mosul lies. The
whole British foreign policy in the
Mohammedan world would he en-
dangered. Lord Gurzon foreign min
lister. has told the Turks that under
no consideration will the surrender
of Mosul be considered. Angora.
Russian inspired, has stated that
there can be no agreement without
the British surrender of Mosul. Tn
less there is found some common
meeting ground on this issue, not to
speak of the many other questions
upon which there is radical diver
gence of opinion at Lausanne. the
conference must come to an end.
will happen in case this situation
comes to PASS. The whole of Turkey
instantly will leap to arms and there
will be sanguinary conflict. The
Turkish effort might be directed
against allied forces in the neutral
points where there is immediate con-
tact with Europeans, particularly in
eastern Thrace and Constantinople.
but the immediate effort of the Turks
undoubtedly would be directed toward
Mosul. This they might take for
the time being. but with British ef-
fort in Thrace. along, the Darda-
nelles and eastern Turkish coastal
regions, the Turks eventually would
be forced to capitulate. The whole
weight of the Balkan nations un-
doubtedly would be thrown to the
British in the effort to once more
expel the Turks from Europe
nns~f, NS-h% r-x>
But any conflict with the Turks is
extremely dangerous. Though Eng
land eventually would be certain to
win if the Turks received no aid, un->
questionably the Russians would be
forced to take a hand or repudiate
their offensive and defensive agree
ment with the Turks. move not con-
sidered likely. For with British sue
cess the Russians see British control
of the Black sea outlets. a condition
which would be intolerable to the
Russians.
Should Russia. on the other hand.
take to the field in behalf Of the
Turks there is no length to which
the conflict might not spread I'll
would be but a mere diversion for the
Russians. not only to aid the Turks,
but direct immediate military effort
toward the Balkans and Poland
France is bound extensively and de-
fensively to Poland and this would
mean necessary support or repudia-
tion of agreements.
However. the chief danger Of Rus
sian effort in eastern Europe would
be coalition with the Germans.
The question naturally arises
Should the Russians join hands
with the Germans, a thing not un-
likely, insofar as the Germans are
concerned il France presses them too
far. would France gain anything by
occupying the Rhineland and the
Ruhr in the face of the best judG-
ments in England and other allied
countries?
Most emphatically not.
Might War for Very Life.
France would find l.srself once more
in q war for her very existence. Yet
Poincare is ready to further fire Ger
man rancor and hatred by acting I'm
mediately to enforce sanctions-pen-
alties which cannot but result in
strife and discord. Europe may not
have to wait for decade to see the
German effort to throw France from
German territory. 1t certainly would
come Immediately in any union of
Russo German military endeavor.
These are possibilities in the dam
gerous situation of the hour. but not
probabilities. Nevertheless they must
be considered in any adjustment
Undoubtedly the premiers will go
far in striving to reach agreement in
Paris and the allies will go far in
trying to bring the Turks to their own
line of reasoning at Lausanne. Else