The Clayton news. (Clayton, N.M.) 19??-1954, 1922-08-04
BUSINESS HAS TURNED CORNER
IS THE PREDICTION OF BABSON

The high light of the Ninth Annual
Wellesley Conference now meeting
here for the discussion Of conditions
and business problems, was reached
when Roger w. Babson announced
a definite turn in business and
showed why Fundamentals. conditions
indicate definite and substantial
business recovery.
Standing before a BObsonchaFt II
feet high and thirty feet long, Mr.
Babson explained the situation
II have been waiting for over two
years to be able TO announce that the
most drastic depression in business
history has spent itself Funda-
mental conditions finally indicate
that a solid foundation is ready for
general and substantial business i'm
provemcnt,
THE white line that draw today
divides the area Of depression in
half. Statistically it means we are
at the exact bottom of The cycle.
Practically il means that business
will pick up his fall and that il
should continue to improve for the
next two or three years.
Technically, the business cycle is
composed of the four succeeding
cycles Of Prosperity, Decline, De-
preston, and Improvement but the
average business ulan experiences
but two conditions. Either sales
are increasing and business is fine
or they are falling off and he is in
deep depression. His attitude then
changes, not as we pass from q per-
iod of prosperity above the X Y line
into period Of depression below.
but as the white lines are drawn
which divide these areas-when
business changes its direction.
when we had completed half Of
the depression in the middle Of 1904
business began To- improve and
business men went into state Of
psychological prosperity almost over
night. We were running below nor
NAL to be sure, but things were
again headed in the right direction.
early in 1907 the panic set in and
business confidence practically dis
appeared. We did not enter the ac-
tual area of depression until the fall
of that same year.
In April, 1908, another white line
marked the turning point and things
doomed again until the long swing
downward set in about June, 1910
This decline, while not drastic, kept
business quiet until the middle OF
1914, when things again turned up
ward. The war with its feverish
activity carried MS on until the mid
die of 1918 when the actual rise had
spent itself. Rabid speculation and
soaring prices put things up for an
other squirt but actual production
and general business activities were
softening
The natural and inevitable reac-
ton has kept business in mourning
for two and a half years.
The white line just drawn mark:
another turn for the better Busi-
! ness is again headed in the right di-
e rectiou and you can go ahead will
e your plans. The banker can nov
S loan with better confidence. Tht
y business man should announce hi
y new product, open his new lerritory
c increase his advertising, and s. al
G Ter business n0wl
I'm spite of the fact that the stocI
g market has already discounted tb
o improvement to a large extent, tn
o investor can hold his stocks for tn
+ top Of a bull market which is almos
never reached until after the whit
e line is drawn and general confidene
!. has been restored personally be
It lieve that the present market is lii
II dc over half way TO the Top,