New-York tribune., 1922-11-12
ices IN the Midst of an Economic Plague
IOng-Term Moratorium and Bio
A D
Loan Called Only Hope
for Salvation

mining their own production and para
iyzing their industrial energy.
The superficial solvency of German
business and industry made possible
by the paralysis of Allied commerce
and industry cannot, however, continue
much longer. In proportion as Ger.
man prices, due to the depreciation of
the mark beyond certain point of
safety. tend to reach world levels Ger
man industry tends to lose the COM
petitive advantages it has enjoyed
hitherto. The result is a vicious cir
Gle: consistently increasing rise of the
cost OF living in Germany, bitter con-
ficts for wage increases, consequent
rise of the state deficit, the necessity
of ever new and larger issues Of paper
money followed by new depreciations
of the mark, new strikes and wage de-
mands. additional dislocation of the
money, continued depreciation of the
exchange, aggravated impoverishment
of the masses, new exchange panics,
increased government deficits, ETC., un-
til finally the crash comes.
Money will lose all value, internal
credit will be wiped out, together with
the paper capitalization of the indus
tries and German industries will be
compelled to halt for lack Of foreign
raw materials which they will no
longer be able to purchase with mark
deprecated in value to zero. The stop
page of German industry and mass un-
employment will be the signal for an
upheavai throughout Central Europe
that will put the Russian debacle in
the shade.
No Disorders are Expected
AS Long as Work is Plentiful
There will be no disorders in Ger
many as long as the masses of labor
can be kept at work. People at work,
however hard their lot, do not make
revolutions, especially if they can be
given some hope and incentive for i'm
proving their condition. But millions
of German workers out of employment
means trouble and trouble of most
serious nature. The German worker
is not Bolshevist. Bolshevism in
Germany may be regarded as finished.
The German workers have no illusions
on the score of Lenine's "achieve-
ments" in Russia. The overwhelming
majority of German labor with the
exception Of few thousand Commun-
lists whose activities would cease with
the cessation of subsidies from Mos
cow, is animated by one desire; to
work for the peaceful reconstruction
of Germany. German labor is too in
telligent to undertake experiment a la
Lenine and Trotzky. But hunger, pri-
vation, cold and unemployment are not
the forces to keep disorder in check.
Masses of people suffering under con-
| sistent impoverishment are not likely
to maintain calm and reasonable at
titude when they are actually thrown
cut on the streets. Mass unemploy-
ment in Germany is, therefore, likely
to lead to catastrophe consequences.
AS the situation stands to-day, Ger
many is still working. Unemployment
is still virtually nonexistent, but the
indications are that these conditions
are maintained by the inertia of the
last three years, while, on the other
hand, there are ominous rumblings of
sharp turn of affairs in the other
direction. Some industries are already
being compelled to curtail production.
Plants are beginning to close in ,vari-
Gus parts of the country, and the
shortage of money due to increased
prices and despite the unprecedented
stream of new paper currency, is serl-
ously interfering with operations. This
| is accompanied by ever increasing
| -