The Birmingham age-herald., 1922-01-05

LII the elementS-labor, materials transportation, money and taxation have a normal relation to each other, then there will be stability. according to statement of Oscar Wells. president of the First Ma tional bank and president of the Ro- tary club, made at the meeting of the Rotary club yesterday.
 T have always realized the danger of indulging in fanciful predictions with respect to the future said Mir Wells. Some men may do 1t with success, and others with propriety, but the banker, whose business is purely mathematical and whose sue cess is measured by the test of ac- euracy, must always do it with ap- prehension. It Is but natural that in the beginning of the new year. when hopes are high and expectancy is the ruling commercial passion, when we nave laid aside to a large degree the disappointing problems of the past and tackle the job with renewed viz or, that We should give emphasis 10 the favorable and to some extent fg- nore the unfavorable. There is a psy- ehological advantage even in a blind faith in the return of prosperity. It IS an element of value as a stimu- lant to our undertaking. It must be accompanied, however, by fair knowledge of actual conditions and with the realization that we are deal ing in psychology.
 "Of the two extremes of optimism and pessimism, one has the advan- tase of the other In most instances. hoth, however, are alike fundament- ally. The extreme optimist who be- lieves in the efficacy of the doctrine that prosperity may be largely ere ated by cheerful outlook, and the extreme pessimist, who is constantly looking for the indications of dis tress and hardship, are both dealing with things as they might be and not With things as they are. Not for the purpose of being neutral, but as matter of prudence. it is wiser not to ascend the heights of optimism nor yet descend to the depths of pessim- ism. It is with this in mind that I would counsel at the beginning of the the new year that you, as representa- tives of business organizations. seek to know the facts as they are and, with your own precept and expe- rience, follow your conclusions.
 Transportation High
 Tt Is an economic fallacy to say that prosperity is just around the corner; and, to the extent thar it ia fallacious. it constitutes a menace Prosperity is relative term, but this is general statement unaccom panied by anything pertaining to rel ativity. To say that prosperity is in close proximity. as indicated bv the phrase just around the corner takes into account all the improve ment in conditions during the last few months. but ignores the national and economic problems with which nj n. fr1 and the intelligence of men can finn solutions for them. It takes into ac count the lowering of interest rates. but fails in considering the number of banks still in debt and to whon, the liquidation of bills payable and rediscounts is a matter of some con cern.
 Tt says that the market for secu- rites, including the war obligations or the government. Is mere stable. but makes no mention of the grow Ing volume of loans available for long renewals to various industries through the operation of the war finance corporation.
 The early return of prosperity Is reflected by the volume of residential and store buildings on the WAY and the prospects of new construction in the early spring; but the Ingersoll Watch company is in bankruptcy and large banking institution in the city of Chicago, according to press reports, is being liquidated through the process of a merger with an other bank by the aid of clearing house negotiations. Cotton has fair ly well held it's own in spite of the reaction following the erroneous sta tstical report of conditions in Sep tember, and yet, the export trade is lmping along in uncertain fashion. The producing public is accepting the conditions of readjustment and re- mobilization and making the most of them while transportation costs re- main ut-of proportion to every oth- CT element of delivery to the con sumner.
 Congress Divided
 Congress is torn between the two extremes of raising sufficient funds for government needs and stimuIat- ing production for the economic uses of industry. The tariff problem, more acute than usual. is involved by the necessities of protection to American industry on the one hand and the needs of the market by our interna- tional debtors on the other. It Is more than a political question under existing conditions, and smacks more strongly of internationalism than in