Mohave County miner and our mineral wealth., 1922-09-22
|QABSUN, statistician tiidGcS
 ID on Business Conditions

Wellesley Hills, Mass, Sept. 18th,
 1922.-Roger Babson evidently not upset by labor difficulties and the
 threatened coalshortage. In a state-
 ment issued today he forecasts good
 business for the next few months.
 "Go after business now!" says MT.
 Babson. "Buyers during these past
 two years have been following hand
 to mouth policy. Everyone has pur-
 chased as little as possible because
 a delay has meant lower prices and a
 consequent saving. With the turn of
 the business tide, however; prices again tend up and both business man
 and individual will make more money by buying ahead. rather than by fol- lowing the more conservative policy. An analysis of 76 basic materials for instance shows that AS are higher to- day than they, were a year ago, "A are lower than year go, while 4 coh1mo- dities show no chnge. Price increase will be felt most on the raw materials that have been completely deflated, but finished goods in practically all lines will show strengthening during the, next few months. s
 "It is particularly important that retail merchants fully grasp this change in the situation. They must turn with the tide. The retailer should plan on a substantial increase in trade between now and Christmas. If he does not he will be caught with shortage rather than surplus of goods, and transportation tie-up will make it difficult to get more sn short notice. -.
 "This increase in business will be due to combination of increased pur- chasing power and change in the attitude of the general public. In spite of the strikes and labor unrest there is relatively little unemployment at present. On incomes over 5000 figures show that 4S per cent of the
 purchasing power of the country comes to the individual as wages and salaries. This makes up the bulk of the purchasing power upon which the average business man must depend. A drop in the cost of living and pros pect of steady work is rapidly turn ing majority of these people into ready buyers. .. ~-' @&
 "In the farming field, bumper crops and better prices promise to class the farmer as a good prospect. He has Ebought very little since 1920 and his accumulated needs should absorb tremendous quantity of farm machin- cry and supplies, The plans of the business world accumulated during these past two years will also be put into operation this fall. rs~ .'
 "The combination of these several factors points to a merchandising shortage. If I were a retailer should certainly buy all goods necessary for Christmas trade now and insist upon early deliveries. r' "'This general increased business ac- tivity will lead in turn to the increased business and industrial profits that are already being reflected in the action of the stock market. Increased pro- fits, of course, mean more money for expansion and equipment. Rents and money rates, in the meantime, are tending gradually downward relieving both individual and business house in the matter of overhead. Banks have ample funds to meet all commercial and investment requirements. In many localities money is drug on the mar ket. The slight seasonal tightening will doubtless be experienced at crop moving time, but taking the fall sea- son as a whole money throughout the West and South should come nearer to the New York market level.
 "In the investment market, prices of good bonds promise to fule strong this fall. As investment capital ac- cumulates the interest rates ease off, bond prices automatically rise. As profits and income increase, the non taxable issues will again be in demand. The affect of commodity prices will be | more than offset for the time being by the quantity of money available. Con- tinue to hold your bonds.
 Whether or not we shall have re- action in the stock market this fall is not the point. We may get the break that the bears are hoping for or stocks may climb suddenly. The point of importance, as I see it, is the fact that we have just turned the corner at the bottom of a period of depres- sion and that the stock market has never reached its high point until early in the period of prosperity. Those who own good stocks outright need do no worrying about the market. ~' Il
 In spite of rail and coal difficulties, general business as reflected in the Il index of the Babsonchart is holding it's own. Activity is now running at 9es below normal