The Washington herald., 1922-09-05
France Soon May Dominate
Europe, Declares Simonds
Change in British Policy Is Only Hope. of
Averting Tragedy, He Says-Predicts French
Invasion Will Extend to Berlin.

election based upon then existing
conditions.
The prompt fall of BRAND, re-
sulting from the attacks of Poin-
care. changed the whole face of
the situation. The refusal Of
America to participate and Of
Poincare to attend the Genoa con-
ference doomed that enterprise.
The fact that at the actual ses-
sfons most of the European states
backed French rather than British
policies added to the extent of the
disaster. Finally The Hague only
confirmed the events of Genoa and
constituted a complete and ca
tastrophic defeat for Lloyd George
and q sweeping success for Poin-
care.
On the whole II was becoming
quite clear before the London con-
ference that under Poincare's lead
ership the continent was rapidly
abandoning British for French
views, that the. ambitious plan Of
Lloyd George for a general re-
vision of treaties and the rehabili-
tation of Russia and Germany at
the expense of their recent VIC
Tins had excited general alarm
throughout Europe and that the
position of Roincare was being
steadily strengthened at the ex-
pense Of British influence. To get
rid Of Poincare then was the sin
gle avenue of escape for George
from a confession of defeat per-
sonally humiliating and nationally
expensive.
But the Barbecue speech is, as
1 have said, a formal and final an
swer of Poincare to Lloyd George;
it narrows the issue. 1t illpminates
the whole future. Now the British
control of the national mines and
forests of Germany or see the ar
rival of a German failure to meet
payments, which will automatically
open the way for the same seizure
and control of the mines and for
ests as. would be the consequence
of the grant of moratorium.
And IL Poincare should now recede
from the position he has taken he
would fall over night. Therefore
his political existence has now
been made the stake of the game.
CIOse To war.
We are, then, in my judgment
very close to the moment when
armies will be again set in motion.
The thing. little appreciated in this
country as yet. is the fact that the
defeat of Germany placed France
In a position which she has fire.
quently occupied before in Europe,
but never since the first abdication
Of Napoleon in 1914 In the last
analysis her power to sweep from
one end of the continent to the
other with irresistible armies lies
beyond reasonable doubt. This was
the situation In 1919, when the
Paris conference met. this has been
the situation ever since.
On the whole. moreover, French
influence has increased quite stead
lily. IL by influence one means COM
parable power. Events have bound
Poland. Rumania, Jugo-Slavia, even
Czecho-Slovakia to French policy,
thus more than doubling the nu-
merical strength of French armies.
by adding the national armies of
these states. armies which have
been trained by French officers, are
equipped with French arms and
penetrated by French military
ideas. Belgium. too, has made a
definite military alliance with
France in the face of a hostile
Germany.
In the meantime British policy.
taItnful to its tradition, has been
struggling desperately to build a
counter balancing force to this i'm
pressive and momentarily irresist-
IDie french array and at the same
time has striven with the last en-
ergy to bring about a reduction of
this French military establishment
either directly or by indirection,
U. >. Retirement IL Cause.
British failure in both respects is
primarily due to American retire.
ment from European affairs In
tneir attempt to control France di-
rectly and bring about a reduction
OF French military strength the
British could only succeed provided
they were able to exercise financiaJ
pressure. And they could onIv er-
ercise financial pressure n Americ.
adopted their ideas, since We .nd
not they were the financial r,a.
ters Of the world at the clo.a %
the war. Had we stood sonorai',
Win the British either in the
league OF nations or at wasbine-
Ton. insisting upon French disarm-
ament and promising In return A.
nanciai assistance. France might
nave yielded. at least she wo,,1d
nave been forced to make conce.-
sions.
AS IL stands. however. Britain ba.
no financial influence upon France
because she has nothing to ofrsr
save the cancellation of deht.
which France can only nav witn
herman coin. and Britain Is most
anxious to prevent such coi,.ctian
ol oerman coin for a multitude of
reasons; some political but most
sconomic' The supreme British
nope has been that the United
states would join In canceIIation
OF inter-allied debts, Recommending
the proposal with an fnsistsnce
upon French disarmament. Now
this hope having gone xlimmerine
the financial weapon does not eri.,
AT the same time the British have
sought desperately to erect a nal
ance Of power on the continent. Rut
70 achieve this end the rehabiIita- :
tion OF Russia and of Germany have
peen essential details Assured only
oI dtaiian support, a support due to
itaiian Jealousy of France and ra.
sentiment of French policy in Middle
europe and in the Mediterranean
britafn has been without ultimats
force to restrain. More thar fhis
the RPfffRh carn.tr