The Washington times., 1922-07-09
RUSSIAN CHANGE
BEING WATCHED
BY ALL POWERS
Events Of Next Six Months Will
Decide Fate, Officials
Believe.
BY HARRY l.. ROGERS.
international News Service.

IntefnauOnai news service.
The events Of the next six months
should tell the tale Of Soviet Russia,
at least 80 far as the present phase
Of its existence Is concerned, accord
ing to Administration officials In
closest touch with the situation.
Whether Lenin continues in power.
or whether by reason of illness,
death or otherwise he should lose con.
troll of the machine he has created.
officials believe developments be-
will have clarified the situation suf-
ficiently to warrant this Government
in taking a new account Of stock.
There is an almost unanimous con-
viction here that Lenin himself, II
free to follow his own bent, would
be willing to make such concessions
as practically to meet the conditions
laid down by Secretary Of State
Hughes as essential to the resump-
ton of relations between the United
| States and Russia. The Soviet dele
CATION at Genoa. according to the
most reliable information available
here. was obviously seeking some
graceful way OF deserting the more
radical principles of Communism. but
were forced to proceed slowly both
on account of the strength Of the or
thodox Communist element at home
and the opposition of Communists
all over the world.
! Leaders May Desert Radicals.
During The Hague conference
| there were evidences that the more
astute Bolshevist leaders were work.
ing in this direction. Notwithstanding
occasional outbursts from radicals,
who waved the red flag with old.time
| vigor. Should Lenin remain In
power, 1t is believed here that he
will be able to accomplish something
definite during the next six months.
either in the way Of modification of
! Soviet policy to meet the demands of
| the outside world. or at least he will
have satisfied himself that conform
ity with the views Of such nations as
the United States and France is a
! concession too radical for the cohorts
of Bolshevism to accept.
Speculation Regarding Trotzky.
With Lenin out Of power, officials
here believe some other strong
man" will appear. regardless Of any
technical machinery that may be es-
tablished for the government Of Rus
sia. TrotZky has been most fire.
/ quently mentioned as Lenin's success.
sor, and there has been much specu.
lation as to how he would conduct
himself In a position of supreme
! power. Any triumvirate or coalition
that may be formed. il Is believed,
would be subordinate to some indi-
vidual. even though he did not hold
the office of premier. With the tre-
mendous personal influence of
Trotsky. IL should be a matter of in
difference to him as to who chances
to have the name of premier. espe-
cially so long as he can retain con.
troll Of the army.
While 1t is true Trotzky has been
! perhaps the most radical Of all the
Bolshevist chieftains, at least so far
as speech Is concerned, observers
here argue that he probably would
become much more conservative IL
he were placed in a position of su-
preme power.
Should he attempt to carry out
some Of his more radical suggestions
especially those involving foreign
conquests by the Red armies, II Is be-
lieved that his organization would
fall Nke house of cards, for those
whose business II is to investigate
such matters assert without qualifi.
cation that Soviet Russian troops are
neither capable nor willing to carry
on an extensive campaign outside the
boundaries Of Russia.