The Washington herald., 1922-05-15
BETTER BUSINESS
EXPECTED TOCOME
WITH new CROPS
Forward Buying Gaining.
Export Trade Also
Improving.

adelphia business interests seem
convinced that not only will n
marked trade awakening be wit
messed throughout the country in
the next three months, but that IL
will find a scarcity Of merchandise.
The turn is timed to arrive with
tile assurance of a large movement
of crops. As one banker here put
1t. the question Is. or should be, not
how is business. but how are crops
likely to turn out.
Meantime Industries In this Sec
ton are operating at about 60 or
70 per cent Of capacity. II the
Judgment Of Industrial leaders is
correct, this is not likely to be
greatly enlarged during the sum-
mer months. The reason given is
that most plants are rebuilding
forces on modest business. and II
would not be profitable to expand
greatly. due to the high cost OF the
Investment
More Forward Buying.
On all sides complaint is heard
OF smallness Of forward buying. but
this is commencing to change. par
ticularly in textile linese. Cotton
and wooien goods have picked up
decidedly in the past week. though
the volume is still small. The
South. which usually comes forward
in the spring for autumn delivery.
is doing little or nothing in that
direction. All this is expected to
change for the better before Sep
tember. II the tide turns at that
period. the belief Is that IL will
continue to swell well into 1929
Despite this conviction. virtually
nobody is making up stocks in an
ticipation of beterment. but output
has been damned up so long that
II is felt to be the sane view that
scarcity must be encountered IL re-
quirements come up to expecta-
tons.
At the moment. price concessions
do not bring business. but price
stability, on the other hand. encour-
| ages placing contracts in lines
where the upswing seems to be per-
msnent, such as in iron and steel
and related branches. In the latter
tho increased cost in producing the
| finished articles is the dominant
| factor. Steel mills are not disposed
/ to commit themselves too far ahead
! because OF uncertainties.
Export Trade BETTER.
One Of the cheering signs OF the
situation is the broadening OF In
| quiry for exports. This comes large
ly from Japan. South America, and
Australia. The latter country Is
recovering much after the fashion
of the United States. but at a much
| slower pace. The belief here is that
the outgo of American goods will
be measurably stimulated in the
| event OF favorable termination
OF the Genoa conference. Expert
| enced observers of overseas events
I discounted from the start a great
deal of the pessimism expressed this
/ week as to the results of the par
ley. Bankers here with internation-
al connections point out there are
| two things that ought to be i'm
| pressed upon students of Eurp-
pean conditions. The first is the
| exigencies of domestic politics in
the different countries: the second
| is the Importance which many
statesmen place on assertions of
general principles and abstract
| formulas. French and Russian ex-
amples are cited in this connec-
| tion.
Views Of Genoa.
The stand taken by our business
interests is that If Russia means to
| trade with the outside world she
must trade on ordinarily accepted
principles. As to France. financial
observers argue that that country
could not afford TO be isolated from
the rest of Europe. especially with
another reparations crisis due at the
end OF the present month. The be-
lief in this territory is that the Genoa
parley will end with possibly an ac-
| commodation all around in which
Russia will acknowledge responsible
ity for debts (payment being another
| matter) and will accept Europe's
terms in return for some sort of
recognition and thus mark an i'm
portant stage on the long journey
of Europe back to normalcy.
Turning from the foreign situa-
ton, Philadelphia bankers think the
| outlook continues hopeful, but ar
que that il would be idle to contend
that such opportunities for profit pre-
vail now as existed in the market
| six months ago. On this point IL
was brought out that many business
concerns have been investing largely
in bonds because OF inability to en-
ploy funds proftably in trade. This
was in lieu of allowing cash to re-
main in banks. where it brought only
| hol AN