Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1922-05-18
Pro6hets of Todau

A PROPHET Is not without honor In his
~ own country when he predicts the
peril of floods so far in advance that
farmer and householder and all others con-
cerned may be ready and fortified. Specialists
| of the United States Weather Bureau have
earned this distinction by their forecasts of
risings the Mississippi and its greater
tributaries. The unprecedented overflow now
marking the lower reaches Of that river was
calculated by the Bureaus observers from
| three to four weeks ahead.
Calculated, we say; the ancient word
would have been "augured" or OWNED"
One skilled in portents would have fingered
the liver of sheep, or intently watched the
flight OF birds, or listened to the rustlings
Of a consecrated oak, or sought to interpret
the Wild dark sayings of priestess dazed
with oracle vapors. And Interestingly
| enough, the soothsayers of old seem to have
hit upon the truth of events more often
than our unimaginative skepticism Of today
likes to believe. For aught we know the wise
ones Of Delphi and Dodona had arts most
potent, OF whose true nature they them
selves were ignorant.
But when it comes to predicting a Mis-
sissippf flood, give us science which Is never
mysterious rather than augury which is al
ways fascinating. "These forecasts" says a
recent report, "are based upon estimates
from data furnished by the river and rain
fall stations of Weather Bureau which are
| established throughout the basins drained by
these rivers. The Ohio is the most accurate
index to what will happen in the way Of a
flood below the Arkansas river; there is
never flood on the lower Mississippi with
out first flood stage on the Ohio, no mat
ter how the other tributaries Of the Father
Of Waters may rise. Predictions in the larger
rivers are chiefly based upon the stages of
waters at different points along the course
Of each and its tributaries. The records of
these river stages along the Mississippi go
back seventy-five years, but they cannot be
depended upon IN present estimates for the
lower river as there have been many changes
in the levees since that time
Following the completion of the present
levee system in 1916, records became more
dependable. Further, notwithstanding that
every change, together with every climatic
variation, must be taken into account, Sin
the tremendous volume Of two-f1fths OF the
water in the United States which passes
New Orleans, the Weather Bureau can ordi-
narily estimate, within three inches, the
exact amount of the rise which will occur
at that point"
This excels anything of it's kind credited
to pythoness or crystal gazer. In regions of
the Colorado and the Columbia flood stages
are more easily foretold, owing to the less
variable conditions. AS melting snow is the
main source of floods in those Western
streams, "the amount Of snow is reported in
terms Of the number Of acres 1t would cover
to the depth Of one foot; the water content
| from the figures" The practical worth Of this
| service appears in the fact that hydro-elec-
trio plants use it as a basis of light and
! power contracts for the coming season, be-
| ing thus enabled to figure upon plentitude
| or poverty of water, while in the same way
irrigation farmers can tell rather accurate
ly what their water supply will be. For the
smaller streams, however, forecasts are
more difficult and less reliable, rainfall be.
ing the sole basis of calculation. 1.-THE wat
J ers rise rapidly and flow out swiftly, as in
the case Of the Pueblo flood, where the
Weather Bureaus warning was carried
ahead Of the onrushing warriors by a gal
Looping horseman. Means of warning will be
greatly facilitated, Of course, by wireless
and aeronautics Something of the extent to
which the service has grown may be gather
ed from the statement that there are seven
hundred and seventy-five year-round river
and rainfall stations and one hundred and
| twenty-five snowfall stations.
Now that floods are predicted weeks in ad-
vance and eclipses long years or even CEN
| turtles, may we not hope that with increas-
ing knowledge of the phenomena Of what
we call weather, it will become possible to
forecast crop prospects and ocean storms
and wintertide seventies twe1vemonth
ahead? Indeed, may not one generation warn
another? May not perils a hundred years
futureward be foreglimpsed and guarded
against?