The New York herald., 1922-11-03
IAN 1000 majority over Mr.. smith

ihan 100000 majority over Mr.. Smith
IN the upstate districts.
Most OF the information on which
this estimate is built comes frori
Democratic leaders of Buffalo, Syra-
cuse, Rochester. l,llnlra. Albany and
Troy, where a great many citizens
} Nho are normally Republican are said
70 favor the Democratic candidate on
Ire rallessd five cent fare issue ana
~ wine and beer platform policies
~-4* coated by Mr.. Smith.
The Democratic figures are in direct
conflict with those Assembled through
Republican agencies. The managers
Cor Mr.. Miller see no reason to justify
the Democratic prediction that his ma
jority north Of The Brnox will fall as
low as 200, 900. They assert that
careful canvass OF upstate districts
indicates that Mr. Miller will poll
within a few thousand of the $4,000
votes he received in that section two
years ago and that the total will be
more than enough to Offset the maxi
mum allowance conceded to Mr.. Smith
an the nature OF a plurality In Greater
New York.
Republican leaders admit that there
are one or two weak spots" up
State, but say these are confined 10
some OF the larger cities and will be
negatived by the Republican showing
in the rural districts.
Tammany Predictions.
Tammany predictions are predi-
Gated on the theory that there will be
u landslide in the city for Nh. Smith.
Estimates OF a Smith lead of 100000
over Mr.. Miller in the city are not
unusual figures quoted in arguments
TO prove the vote getting power of the
Democratic nominee. This figure is
quoted among brokers in the Wall
Street district. at uptown clubs and
hotels, and in neighborhood centers
where the admirers of Mr.. Smith joy
ously proclaim his ultimate return to
Albany under spectacular circum-
stances.
Former City Chamberlain Alfred J.
johnson, who is regarded as an au-
1hority in election contests, said yes
terday that he would not be surprised
II Mr.. Smith beat the Hylan record by
10000, so that his majority will be not
far from half million. Mr. Johnson
based his estimate on a system of
postcard tabulation Of "key centers"
in the metropolis and in several sec
tons of the State. His conclusion is
that Mr.. Smith will have SOC, 900 plu-
rality over all.
Republican managers scott at the
Democratic predictions that Mr. Smith
will receive in excess of 275,000 plu-
rality in the city. Jesse L. Phillips
former insurance superintendent. who
is a, close student of rural political
conditions and an authority to whom
the betting contingent looks for in
formation. said yesterday that Gov.
Miller will bring down to The Bronx
enoughsof lead to give him the de-
cision over Mr.. Smith by 100000 ma
jcrity"
Despite the extravaganza on both
sides of the argument the betting on
the Gubernatorial race, which is mo-
nopolizing popular attention to the
exclusion of the Senatorial and Con-
gressional contests. hangs consist
emily around even money This in IT.
self is an indication OF lack of ex-
pert confidence in the various polls
end canvasses which provide a lively
topic of discussion among all classes
OF citizens in every part of the State
Even Money Proposition. .
In the betting market Mr.. Smith
rules the favorite at odds of IL to 10
or thereabout. Enthusiasts who are
governed more by their emotions than
nv Judgment have wagered as high as
is to TO- but at no time during the
campaign have the odds on either
Gov. Miller or Mr.. Smith mounted as
high as to 1. If the Tammany fig
ures are right impartial experts on
the percentage system figure that the
odds on Mr. Smith should be at least
3 to 1. If the Republican estimates
are correct the same experts say that
Mr.. Miller should be around a 2 to
favorite" in the betting.
The trouble with most of the polls
and canvasses taken .both-in the city
and upstate 1tstricts is said by ex-
perts TO be that they do not reflect
the attitudes of many thousands OF
Independents and ignore completely
the protest vote" which the Socialist
leaders assert will be cast for the can
didates of their party.
a betting expert Of Tammsny in
clinations and an associate who
dates in Presidential and state e1ec-
lions agreed yesterday that with the
gas squeezed out the fight between
Miller and Smith is a legitimate even
money proposition"