The Washington times., 1922-03-16

feeling OF confidence and quite a
little business activity, not based at
all on q splurge. A feeling Of op-
timism will prevail. There will be
some business for anybody who has
the ability to secure It.
"The third Quarter-the summer
months-will. as usual. be quiet be-
cause of the season. This. however.
is to be expected. 1t occurs an.
nually. -.
"As for the fourth quarter. every
body agrees that, barring some unex-
pected developments aboard. the
good business which will prevail
toward the end Of the second quar-
ter will resume with great activity.
1t Is expected to last through the
quarter and follow into the winter
pect, at this, time, to see very good
business, indeed.
AS for prices. everybody agrees
that today many commodities are
selling at q price below their cost to
manufacture. while many are still
too high. There will be no drastic
change In any Of these, but q con-
stant series Of readjustments, each
one helping to stabilize industry as q
whole. These will happen 80 gradu.
ally during the year that they will
steal upon US unawares.
THE constant series Of fluctuating
or readjustment prices will make for
a great deal Of activity in the stock
market as railroads and industrials
find their true level"
This diagnosis was submitted to
a large number Of responsible bust.
ness concerns, and their comment
was invited.
One banker replied:
III the spring quarter IL to show
further Increase in optimism. to-
Qether with greater activity in
business, It via be because we slip
by certain adverse factors which
are>on the horizon. There Is no
use denying that soldiers' honus.
IL passed, would take money away
from commercial and industrial
uses. and to this. extent slow up
revival. There does not seem 10
be much fear that funds for the
bonus will be called for this aprIng
or this year. but the matter is not
yet settled. There Is perhaps not
q great deal Of anxiety about the
threatened coal strike on ALiil /.
This. however. Is a very important
factor, both on account of its own
direct effect on industry ani be-
cause of its influence on the whole
labor problem.
another important factor Is the
outcome of the Genoa meeting in
April. II confidence in the foreign
ia. ~ tv<N N1l
exchange should hold up and Ameri-
can foreign loans should go forward.
II, however. II is evident that
European nations cannot get ready
to get together strongly on an in
dustriaI, program, the effect would
be adverse, Another factor is our
own tariff policy. II. we try to get
everything coming and going. that
is, to hold our domestic market In
an exclusive way and at the same
time try to get the foreign market.
we will find that we have been
the impossible.
my own personal feeling is that
we are not going to run very sud-
denly into a big business revival,
but that we are going to gradually
make headway with the many real
problems that we have to deal
with"
The president Of the tool company
declares that while manufacturers
have been reducing prices rapidly
and drastically. retailers have not
done SO and have thus retarded
sales. He adds: I'VE are taking
steps as fast as we can, to see
that 1t is-rectified insofar as our
particular line goes. A dealer who
does not care to work with us along
these lines IL Of no use to us any
way, and the sooner we find II out
and get some one to take his place,
the better everyone will be salts
A nationally known food com.
pany's reply contains this: "Your
third quarter diagnosis doesn't quite
appeal to us. because we DO not be-
lieve that business 10 going to be ex.
ceptionally quiet during this period.
On the other hand. we feel that tho
optimism which is now spreading
over the country IL going to carry
business along on a gradual increase
right through to the end of the year.
incidentally We plan to show a big
increase In sales over any previous
year.
The president of a company In.
terested, In building supplies OBJ
serves: I'VE have some sixty five
agencies established In various psrts
of the United States and we Sc. u
decided change in their correspon-
dence from a few months ago.. They
are all optimistic over the future,
reporting that there is 4 consider.
able amount of building in progress.
copyright. 1921. by B. c. Forbss.)