New-York tribune., 1922-08-10
!. - 10 Five Years Are Re-
aa,,;red TO Reorganize Her
Economic and Industrial
life. He Tells Institute
,,demnity Must Be Cut
c..hx Doubts Wisdom of
Lending Money While So
.;slis,ic Menace Remains

fSstussing the fep"
,..;nn 10 the economic reconstruc-
= i Europe, Paul D. Cravsth told
=. ~ conference of the Institute Oh f0i-
,,jcs this morning that;
'1.g 1r.g;,s,--Considering her demoraiized
.:.;on Germany could not resume
...sration payments on any consider
.s ~ ,eale until she has been given a
Wv ~ from three to five years in
~ ~ % reorganize her economic and
..Sns.rial life. In other words ne sug-
.. @...ss the granting of moratorium. !.
gsss..ssson5-That the reorganization of
Sss.anstr;al SssynN life would be so slow She
hsl l,a lpn .ot meet the reparation demands
.. s0sio she was aided by other nations
snlesJ nlaah,ain;ng the tools of her trade,
u .ao~e especially capital, accessible
a.a,s tna and shins or the means with
~ n huy ships That means a
~ s~national loan to Germany with
sannshly American and British bank
Kers giving the lead.
Third - That reparation payments
rrst he in installments over long Pc
rod of wears. although once Germany's
.rsdit has been re-established, the "Al-
i;as MIGHT realize upon the installments
n sdysnce of their maturity through
.so issue of bonds marketed upon pri-
vate investors
American Flotation Necessary
obviously that means the fotation in
American markets of German bonds
with American financial interests acting
as agents.
Fourth-That the present reparation
bill of $50, 100000 would have to be
reduced about two-thirds.
In support of his further suggestion
Nr. Cravath quoted ]. NJ. Keynes, the
English economist, wkO set $600,000,00
year for thirty years as being prob
sbly within Germany's theoretical
capacity to pay" and also ex-Premier
Nittis figure of S500,G00,000 year
These estimates, he said, did not differ
materially from those reached by the
american experts at the Paris peace
| sonference.
Mr.. Cravath's program, which is ap-
prently that of group of American
tanking interests and practically the
came as that of the leading British
financial interests, is radical depart
IRE from the orthodox view. Such a
program would be bound to arouse
nueh opposition in France, if not in
America. It's chief Importance at this
stage is that it forms the basis for
DISCUSSION and may help to crystalline
opinion in this country.
Ii his Introductory remarks Mr..
Crayath said one was "led TO the con-
elusion that in fixing a program of in
deHnity payments by Germany the
primary question is not how much she
can pay, but how much other nations,
and especially the United States and
Great Britain, can afford to let her
pay There is another prime consid-
eratlon, and that is that, partly as the
result of the war but more as the re-
Mlt Of the policy pursued by the AL
lies since the armistice, Germany is
tp-day in a thoroughly impoveris shed
and demoralized condition, with the
result that reparation program that
would have been rational if adopted
Immediately after the armistice might
De senseiess at the present time"
Crosby Differs in Part
oscar I. Crosby, former Assistant
secretary Of the Treasury, holds radi-
cally different views on several funda-
mental questions. For instance, he
sAa AZ the conference this morning
sAss hugo Stlnnes, the most powerful
.a,a financial magnate in Germany, had
.ola hlm recently that Germany was
40, a0l IN position to become a large
borrower.
v de quoted a director of the great
siupps works to the same effect. Ger
%anys only need for a loan, in Mr..
oa.; S1vapy opinion, was to meet her obli-
ssu9hs .s to France, and he himself dis
mast nas.ed any loan to a foreign govern
csa Cen; "hlen was earmarked. Mr..
uioSoy was inclined to doubt the
alsaom OF making a big loan when the
Svmsf S OF the radical socialistic move
AIa. p0 was a matter Of some moment.
ptIssaaS tssm9no a, Recouly, the Paris editor,
sSseaaed sssl the. conference again, and
an n'I at ne ~, was asked to express an opin-
syst, @ 'ne suggestions made by Mr..
las r.a raa returned to the demand he
man aaue oOns. several times that the Ger
on tbs b'ssthment n be compelled to lew
outs;d. money owned by its nationals
N MH'"pae ZEN Inc boundaries of the state
ooo. 0co 0NceocUn1y oSny places this sum at s1o,-
Dr. Josef Redlicb tho eo
tslL lIn Minister of Finance cave ar Ius- 1on.
Trost'. ", rhe burden of which was tba+ '4s ths
and '.i y OF Versailles must he H rovisad tAI
Aust" saa' u was vital to the neonle ~
en.or S,.ia a, that Vienna be nerp;tted ; ~ ~
.sl state the sovereignty of the German s.sI ,o
currency Reform Essent,a,
terencaa ,ae afternoon. at his own con.
Craya.l,, Mr. Crosby replied to NJ,
Il, nc ~ suggestions in more detail
eontera we = bankers and Mr.. Cravatb
and adu, ;n' Germany was hard nressed VI
how IMPOVERISHED, III he wanted to knou, nvu
posi.;ns reasoned that she was in :.
and ssoo 70 ooo pay between $500 900 900
Allies ,SVuy5'!o0o'OO0 annually, while tbe
sonIs' winch would receive this MONS no
H. daoia io1 be able to pay us anvth;nss,'
* tssoiared ~ that it was imnoss;hia tn
NTH '4s .h amount Germany could nav w
,prr.nere mere had been a. reform of KY KY
Cs,r,aMhg Of the political situa+;on -
tslmaa1y tsa he said: "That not f'taa',on sas ION IN
bili... In his opinion therpe po; ;s mas las gos & 70
Gown P p. either the Kaiser or the
b said thl. iIince returning to power. but
Il bsa,!S s,u Shat while he Was in % Gern pus ann
spossihio 'ne iatter's son mentioned as
Il ',e We re- .ool of the monarchists.
gold 10 en- san make a loan of a billion in
nov bou' ouet.hmany, n Mr.. Crosby wanted to
Rid anu uI that was to 20 to France He
an soyor s roan on the part of the Ameri-
ton, Minlhent M r was out of the oues.
eat sitn,tr ,. ,Gtrosoy's solution of the nres-
asrstor;,aaao was the granting Of n
ten ya,um mn to Germany of from eicbA "
surona untns o to two years. "Wsat
ssgatriess seeas is a rest all around. The
sTscitnrnniust must economize," said ne.