Great Falls tribune. [volume] (Great Falls, Mont.) 1921-current, 1922-11-26
Dearth Looms
as Important Factor
i'm World of Business
By wELLS.DIcKEY CO.

An estlmate OF the business SlLuatloii
at present must take into account two
most important factors, the first the
continuing shortage in freight cars and
the other the signs pointing more and
more to what may prove to be a serl-
Gus labor shortage. The lack of cars
to haul products to market has been the
subject of discussion for many weeks
past and records for the week just
passed would seem to indicate but little
Improvement in the general situation.
This situation, however. is one which
can be alIeviated. in fact, it is already
being alleyiated in some quarters. The
labor shortage. however, is quite an
other matter in that any relief must
come as a slow curative measure.
So far as the domestic situation is
concerned those are about the only two
u~nfayorable factors, although as 1922
draws to a close there is an evidence
of a considerable slowing down in some
lines. The credit for business expan-
sion is available and the demand for
goods continues to be such as to pro-
vide heavy orders in many lines Of
manufacturing activity. Consequently,
it ma be said that basically industry
is in a favorable position where it may
be expected to remain. Looking into
the future it would seem safe to pre-
sumo a continuation of good business
throughout the coming year. However,
this is a long range estimate at best
and much may happen in the interim
to change the complexion of any fore
cast which might be undertaken at this
time.
Initiation May Come
1t is true that business is running
satisfactorily at present and at present
it does not seem that any reaction will
develop during the coming u months.
1t may be though that 1923 will estab-
lish some little unsound basis. There
is practically not evidence of initiation
at present, but if a labor shortage con-
%tinues. this of itself will pave the way
for higher prices of commodities and
in this way might furnish a basis for
initiation generally. The foreign situa-
ton must always be reckoned in any
calculations at this time and It must
be said that at present the foreign out
look is not favorable. There has been
a continuous falling off in foreign trade
since 1919 and a consequent slowing
up in those industries in which a fair
part of the product was made for X
port.
There is n lack of purchasing power
in many foreign countries which pre-
vents the importation of goods in guam
titv. Looking at our own side of the
case it becomes evident that our pro
ductiye capacity was increased during
the war we'll beyond our normal dom
este needs so that If industry is to OPP
crate at capacity it must be through a
disposition of our manufactured sur
plus in foreign markets. There are
several other venues of export which
have not been so fully developed as
they should be. South America and
China bonds offer attractive fields if
intelligently cultivated. The cempeti-
ton in the South American market,
however. is such that American bust
ness men must be on their toes If q
substantial trade volume is to be de
veloped. Foreign trade with China is
more dependent upon a sterilization of
political and economic conditions than
upon any pressure from without. Just
as soon as American exporters can en-
ter the Chinese field safely and have
some guaranty that their goods will be
paid for whether delivered to indiyid-
uals OF TO the government, these ex-
porters will be OIL the job.
The Bond Market.
The bond market during the week
continued in it's uncertain course.
Prices held fairly firm throughout a
large part of the list although early in
the week there-were a number of re-
cessions which carried many securities
and particularly foreign obligations to
lower levels. There is little doubt that.
the uneasiness In the foreign situation
has had considerable to do with the
downward trend of bonds recently, as
was evidenced by the quick response to
any encouraging news from across the
seas. Foreign obligations which were
the first to decline in the recent slump,
also are the ones first showing evil
dences of recovery. The outlook is
considerably better than it was several
days ago.
Liberty bonds were unsettled during
the week. Although the range of fluc-
tuations was comparatively slight they
closed well up to the opening figure.
Municipals were quiet. These %securi-
ties as a class have held their price
unusually well during the period Of de-
cline, investors apparently being more
inclined to wait for their prices in sell
ing them to take any losses. The pub
lie utility field was active in spots, but
prices showed a slightly downward
trend. There was a mild recovery lat
er in the week. Industrials also were
fairly inactive, even in spite of good
reports Of earnings and future pros
poets from a great many different
lines. One Of the important industrial
announcements was that having to do
with plans for a consolidation Of the
five largest meat packing. plants in the
country. into two competing organiza-
tons. This whole plan is being pro-
mulgated in the interests Of economy. |
1t is maintained that distribution of
products could be more efficiently han |
died. there would be less duplication of
machinery and that two giant cor
porations competing with each other
would prevent price fixing or other vio-
lations of the Sherman antitrust law.
Developments in this plan are being
watched with unusual interest.