Mohave County miner and our mineral wealth., 1922-12-01
HADcnkl Famous
 ID on Business Conditions

Wellesley Hills, November 25, 1922. Many traders have decided that the stock market has turned definitely downward and have sold their hold ings. Others are hanging on and hoping. The following statement made today by Roger w. Babson
 would indicate that fundamental con
 ditions substantiate the beliefs of
 those who are still optimistic.
 There is a feeling in many quar-
 ters that the rise in the market is
 over'', says MT. Babson, land that it lis headed for long panic. I am be- 1 ing asked on every hand for my
 opinion and want to go on record as taking the opposite position. The long swing upward movement which
 started in August, 1921, is not yet over. l am not concerned with the minor movements of the market. don't know anything about them and no one else does. The market may have further declines before it goes higher. Statistics show, however, the market is due to go to higher levels in 1923 or 1924 before it starts on another long downward swing such as we had in 1920
 q admit that when one looks at surface conditions today, there are many things that tend to confirm the current bearish sentiment. The prin- cipal bear argument that is being used, is the European situation. It is difficult for most people to see how conditions in the United States can improve much without an increase in our foreign trade. In the European situation and in the Tariff Act they see little encouragement in this direc- tion. Other bearish arguments being put forward are: the high commodity price level that still exists, the failure of wages to come down, the increas- ing tendency of costs, the small mar gin of profit in many lines, the poor outlook for certain. industries, and political conditions.
 "But did anybody ever make money in the stock market by following sur face conditions?? I never heard that they did. Did surface conditions look rosy back in December, 1920 and dur ing 1921 when the market was at its lowest levels? They certainly did not. There were just as many calam- ity howlers then over the European situation and domestic developments as there are today. In the face of all these things, the market has had rise of over 609o in the past fifteen months. It may be argued that the market had no license to go up to this extent and that because it has gone up so much it is in dangerous position. The stock market, however, never could have had any such rise as it did if underlying conditions had not been sound. This position on the market is based on underlying condi- tions and not on surface conditions. The same fundamental statistics that told me to be bullish on stocks in 1921 indicates that the long swing move ment is not yet over.
 "Of course, I don't mean to say that all classes of stocks are neces- sarily going higher, or that the mar ket will turn higher right away. There are certain groups that may have al- ready seen their top. Judging from the statistical position of the industry of commodity which they represent, I should not be surprised if these did not do SO much on the balance of the present movement, or if they even sagged. Because of the very uneven readjustment that we have been thru, the various groups of stocks are not all in the same position. This is no time to buy stocks with ones eyes shut. There are still possibilities for profit, however, for the man who will use discrimination"
 General business has improved 2% over last week. The index of the Babsonchart now stands at 39o below normal-the highest point in two