The Brattleboro daily reformer. (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1913-1955, 1922-11-03
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

Up State-NOt Good Mixer.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
Especial Despatch to The Reformer.)
Copyright 1922.
NEW YORK, Nov. 3.-Al Smith,
Democrat, personally popular beyond the
strength of his party, the man who
made the most remarkable run of any
Democratic candidate in the United
States against the Republican landslide
of 1920. and now drafted again for serv-
ice as governor, will undoubtedly be
elected over Governor Nathan Miller,
Republican, in the Empire State next
week.
Some national tides are running here,
there viii be some significance to the
votes of the cities here and there which
may give comfort to those looking for
nationwide currents. but it is Al Smith,
the self-made man. the fearless public
servant, a real personality in American
politics. who will win-not the Demo
cratic party.
Anyone who could come within $4,000
votes of winning for governor in a year
when the presidential nominee of the
opposite party carried the state by the
unprecedented majority of a million
votes would seem TO have on paper, at
least, the better chance of winning.
This would be easy to forecast if one
were sure that Al Smith is as popular
today as he was two years ago. and
that, conversely. Governor Miller is not
as strong.
Disadvantage of Incumbent.
For one thing Governor Miller has
been in office. The incumbent is on the
defensive always. Al Smith is on the
offensive He is not new and inexperi-
enced and talks about the job with much
more huency than the average candidate
for governor who resorts 10 promises and
pledges without really knowing the prac
teal side. Governor Miller, on the
other hand, who is one of the Outstand-
ing figures in the Republican party in
the nation, Is 4 man of rare intellect and
an aggressive figure. He is not the kind
of man who is called a good mixer
IN politics. He is positive and firm and
Is really of presidential calibre. His
ardent admirers have hoped that if he
trlumphed for governor again be would
be carefully considered for the Repub
lican presidential nomination in the
event that circumstances or personal /
wish persuaded Mr.. Harding nor TO run
for second term But, unfortunately |
for Governor Miller, he is running
against the most difficult candidate TO
beat IN q generation. Totally unlike
Hughes, who gained popularity by his
spectacular fights against boss rule, I'M
like any of the other governors who came
after Hughes. Al Smith is. more of the
Cleveland type-a man of the people.
lie is one of those human beings in
politics" which the mass seems to like.
Personalities Strongest.
Issues are, of course, made in every
campaign, but the New York state con-
tests will be decided on the basis of an
L.
hand, inevitably developed by Governor
Miller in his controversies on vital
questions and. on the other hand, an ac-
emulation of friendships for Al Smith
such Is few men in public life have ever
achieved.
The election will hinge as usual on the |
size of the Democratic vote in New York
city and immediate vicinity. Last time
Al Smith didn't get enough in New
York city to quite overcome Governor
Mi!ler's enormous upstate majority.
This time there Is every sign that Al
Smith will get more votes in New York
city than he did two years ago, despite
the fact that the registration of both
parties has fallen off considerably.
Situation Upstate
What viii the rest of New York state
do? Careful canvass of the situation
outside of the metropolis shows that the
cities are strong for Al Smith and the
counties will cast a high vote for Gov
ernor Miller. Western New York Is
swinging toward Smith. The city of
Buffalo gave Miller 10000 majority in
1920 but the best information available
would seem to indicate that this will be |
wiped out and q Smith majority of a
few thousand substituted. Erie county |
as a whole will probably give Governor
Miller a majority but it will not be |
enough to helm him on his march across |
the state to the Bronx line. Cities like |
Niagara Falls. Jamestown, Salamanca |
Dunkirk and Hornel with their indus /
trial populations. particularly railroad 1
men who are seeking every way possible
to express protest against the Daugh- |
erty injunction, will give Smith consid- |
cradle aid. The Democrats are conf |
IDENTIFY claiming Syracuse and it is ap |
parent that the death of George W. Al |
bridge has depressed Republican activ-
ity in Rochester, where Smith has also /
made such Roadway. Everywhere that |
Governor Miller had been strong his |
majorities have been cut down.
In Rochester a Republican strong /
hold of many generations, Governor Mil |
Ter held a meeting with less than 1000 |
who focked to hear AL Smith couldn't |
get into the halls.
What does it all mean? Simply that
Governor Miller is not as strong al he |
was two years ago in the Republican
sections of the state and that he viii
come to New York with a greatly re-
duced margin and Will not be able TO
overcome AL Smiths maioritfes for the
metropolis will be larger than two
years ago. Some of the betting would
seem to indicate close election but the
reasons are not apparent on the surface.
1t looks as if Al Smith would win by'l
better than a comfortable majority.