The Washington times., 1922-04-16
MONEYTRADE
Russian Revival.
Time Only Healer.
Eject on u. s.
Outlook.
By GEORGE w. HINMAN.


can businsss and hundreds Of Euro
pean economists ara at work In
Genoa on the Russian problem. Their
idea is that Russia must be pulled
out Of her financial troubles. II Eu.
rope is to be financially reformed.
To this ia added the proposition that
only by thus first sewing Russia,
and then Europe. can America be
fully restored.
II all this were true. the future OF
tho worlds business would not be
very rosy. And. therefore. II the
success of the conference depends on
the Immediate solution Of the Rus
sian problem, the deiegateg may an
well give IL up now as some OF them
wish to do, and 60 home to their peo-
pie. Why7 AS many American H.
nancicrs and some American states
men insist American business should
be taking part In ths Genoa confer
ence. the question Is important.
Revolution and Business.
Why. thenf because the revoiu-
ton In Russia hss not yet run its
course. and revolution and business
do not mix. AZ far an one can Judge
from the past the Russian revolution
is Just going into its second stage,
IL only half over. Before Russian
government and business viii emerge
from the revolution. probably four or
five years viii elapse. Russia can
be changed into a normal trading
nation oply by time. The Genoa con-
ference rs no magic means to alter
Russian conditions In a twinkiing.
Again. there Is no present solution
of Russia's problem because several
other European powers don't want
any solution except money or prom
isss OF money, and money Ia just
what Russia can't give. The state
bank of Russia is offering 3s per
cent for deposits on current account.
But is there not a solution possible
by reviving Russian trader Even
tually, but not now. This brings one
back to the original question once
more, and the answer. No such So
luton is possible.
Small Present Trade.
Because the trade ,s today very
small. even with the countries ready
to trade. and because there would be
very little produced In Russia for
export. even IL the barriers wore
removed between her and all other
countries. Russia's total foreign
trade last year amounted only TO
$135 200. 900, about one-tenth of her
foreign business before the war.
Her total exports, according to the
London Ststist, were but $40, 900 900.
The export to England, Russia's
chief customer. were four fifths of
the whole. -k-t ~a. yel
Nothing exists in Russia except
figures." sy~Ts
This was the recent exclamation
OF q Russian Commissioners of n.
nance. That is the way a revoiu-
ton works, even though Il be q re-
volution that works for good in the
end. That ia the way the revolution
has worked I'm Russia~--not politf-
cally. but financially and indus.
triaIiy.
In the fourth place, tho immedi-
ate solution of the Russian problem
fs impossible, because France in
sists upon her right to collect bill
lions or their equivalent from a ma
ton In this desperate plight. In one
way and another France figures
that. on Csarist bonds and Industrial
securities. the Russian people owe
the French people more than four
billion gold dollars. She wants the
money or Its equivalent. OF course.
she cannot get II. So there n no so
iution here.
WIN Recover In Tfme.
whichesap way one turns. efther
In Genoa. washinston or Paris, the
fact always stares one In the face
that Russia must have time 20 re-
cover-thrse years. four years. per.
haps five. Any financial plans that
DO not reckon with this fact are
pure waste of time.
businessf Through other powers.
like France and Italy, that suffer In
their trads from Russia's kardships,
IL affects American business ad-
versely but not severely. On the
other hand, II IL favorable 20 Ameri.
can producers a nd exporters In
many respects. Before the war Rus
sia Furnished TO Europe ooe-fourth
of the exportable wheat s1pply. and
millions OF tons Of barley and rye"
Russia was the great reservoir on
which Europe drew for her raw ma
tertais, AS long as Russia cannot
furnish raw materials, the markets
that once wcre hers are bound to
draw on America for many addi.
tional supplies. Though unsouRht,
the opening is there and American
business cannot help profitins by II.
In q word, the great problem of
the Genoa conference fs largely q
European problem. II Russia can
be quickly restored, II will be better
for everybody. But II Russia can
not be quickly restored, the business
consequences viii be lees serious for
the United States than for any
other country. They VIII not be
serious enough TO stop the return of
this nation to prosperity; they win
hardly check the present advances Of
trade and industry.
PARTNER WANTED |
II