The Washington herald., 1922-08-20
Simonds Says Allies Hope
For Debt Conference IN u S;
Declares Dream Of Every European Statesmen
Pictures Farley IN Which America Would
Cancel All War Obligations.
By FRANK H. sIMoNDs.

By FRANK H. sIMoNDS.
With the passing Of the London
the fact becomes at last
fairly clearly established that SAL
walton by conference Is not pos
sible. Statisticians diner a. to
whether, since the original Paris
conference, the world or q major
part of 1t has met in solemn con-
cisve ON the state of the universe
fifteen times or only thirteen. Ger
tainly the average citizen Of the
Western hemisphere would ind 1t
hard to name the cities which have
lent their title to international
gatherings and even more difficult
to give any coherent statement of
the results of these councils.
So far we have come since every
one looked upon the opening Of the
Paris conference as the starting
point of q new era, that now the
mere mention of a fresh interna-
tional assembly provokes irony and
incites pessimism. And. looked at
face to face. the fact seems fairly
clear thai this derisive feeling is
entirely Justified We are more
than three years and a half from
the opening of the Paris confer
ence and nearly four from the end
Of hostilities. yet on the whole In
that considerable period interna-
tional political conditions have not
improved and economic have mani
testify worsened.
Today. after London. the. situa-
tion Is simple in all It's terrifying
probabilities. Germany Is sinking
into collapse. This collapse IL not,
as a material question. due to pay
ments which she has already made
on reparations. for these payments
have been Insignificant. No, the
cause is to be found in the deliber-
ate election of the government and
the people of Germany for bank
ruptcy rather than payment of
costs assessed against the nation
for the war.
Other Nations su6er.
II Is true that the size of the
claims pushed by the allies and es-
tablished in the treaty of ver-
!sailles may partly explain the Ger
man decision for bankruptcy. II
Is possible. that is, the most any
one can say, that had the bill been
smaller the Germans might have
chosen to pay. However, this Is OF
but little consequence now. for the
Germans have chosen bankruptcy
and crash is certainly at hand.
But a German crash ineluctably
drags down France, Belgium and
Italy, which have no other resource
to meet their foreign obligations
or pay for the physical reconstruc-
tion of devastated areas. save the
German reparations. When the
mark sweeps down p to infinitessi-
NAL values the franc and the lira
also follow, IL at a distance. II
Germany finally collapses, then in
the general failure which results
there is an end of interallied debts
and of. reparations into the bar
gain. with a single exception.
This exception lies in the possi-
bility that France. employing her
armies will invade Germany and
seize such things as the Ruhr in
dustrial area, from which it may
draw coal and other valuable COM
modittes. In a word, when Ger
many actually collapses. II may be
possible for France, acting like an
ordinary creditor, to seize such
property as is discoverable. But
two things are at once to be noted.
First, the amount of actual money
return will be inconsiderable and
second, the geperar economic situ-
alton of the world will be still fur
ther disturbed land recovery still
longer postponed.
Balfo1r Note Fatal
But after London one is bound to
ask what Is the alternative. Lon
don has demonstrated that political
leaders are totally unable to
find a way of accommodating home
rnd foreign politics. Mr.. Lloyd
George with a general election on
his hands did not dare to propose
that cancellation of debts as be-
tween European allies which must
be the first step in the scaling
down of German reparations. The
Balfour note closed the possibility
of useful British contribution to
the London conference. 1t was as
fatal in its way as was the Ameri-
can refusal to go to the Genoa con-
ference to that earlier assembly.
NJ. Poincare. on his part, in GO
ing to London with a plan for the
reduction of reparations following
the reduction of the French foreign
debts was compelled to put his plan
in his pocket and produce another
looking toward the actual entering
upon German property. which was
no more nor less than an answer to
the BalfOur note. And this French
proposal was emphasized by the
note sent from Paris to Berlin in
advance and threatening all sorts
of dire catsstrophes IL Germany
continued to refuse to settle private
claims.
The simple truth is, then. that
both Mr.. Lloyd George and NJ
Poincare had by the Balfour note
and the Berlin message made any
real settlement at London impossi-
bic. A real settlement must begin
by SO ordering the two problems
of reparations and allied debts that
II will be possible to turn the whole
financial mess over to the hnan-
ciers. As long as It remains in po-
litical hands II is hopeless. But
once this is done there will still re-
main the question of how Germany
Is to be made to pay, II she still re-
fuses to pay that which everyone
will agree Is within her ultimate
capacity. f'---'-
Sees Solution In Loan.
II you could arrive at a point
where reparations became the ques-
ffon NJ the. fuudiu0 NV meaus of