The New York herald., 1922-05-15
WARD FINDS TRADE
SURELY ON UP GRADE
Bank of Commerce Official
Says Depression of 1921
Has Ended at Last.
MONEY OUTLOOK is GOOD
Coal Strike Has Rctarding Eff
feet but Cannot stop Swing
to Prosperity.

Business is on the up grade, says
the National Bank of Commerce, writ
inc in Commerce Monthly, the maga-
zine issued by the bank. for June. The
depression has passed. he says, and
substantial progress has already been
made toward normal activity.
Adverse conditions. such as the coal
strike, may temporarily retard the up
ward swing, and widespread crop fail
ures might even result in recession for
time but no circumstances can alter
is now an unassailable basis for con-
fidence in slow and steady expansion of
the commercial and financial activities
of the country
This basis for confidence" Mr. Ward
asserts, ''is fivefod First. there is
plenty OF money TO be had at reason
able rates for both short time and long
time requirements. Second. stocks of
finished goods and OF raw materials
have been reduced to reasonable pro-
portions. Third. commodity prices are
stabilizing. Fourth, conditions in basic
industries, including agriculture. are
improving and production is expand
ing Fifth. gains are not confined TO
the United States. Conditions are i'm
proving throughout the world.
Returning TO Prewar Bnsjs
Rates In the various sections of the
American money market are now fairly
comparable with prewar rates when
business activity was normal. The sat
isfactory position of the Federal Re-
serve system and of the member banks
is evidence of the solid fina ncial
foundation for the business expansion
which is now in it's initial stages 1t
is unquestionably true that conditions
are more nearly normal in the United
states than anywhere else. with the
! exception of Canada.
THE legacy OF politico- financial trou-
blcs left by the war have placed many
countries in a very difficult condition,
with disorganized public finances and
deprecated currencies. 1t Is easy to
exaggerate the evils of this situation
however
AS matter of fact, large volume
or profitable foreign trade has been
carried on since 1918. Money rates in
London are again practically at the
prewar level. British war bonds have
crossed par. International monetary
and credit transactions can now be
carried on between most countries of
the world In the normal prewar ways
with occasional slight recessions the
bond market has been rising since July
1921. Activity in stocks first became
noticeable in October, 1921. and in re-
cent weeks a boom market has pre-
vailed. There is an improved position
OF individual firms and corporations
Despite losses many business organiza-
tions, II judged by the ratio of quick as
sets to current liabilities. are in a bet
ter position than for many years.
Confidence in Crop Outlook.
Foremost among the industries Is ag-
rlcuture. Farmers are planting their
1929 crops in we'll founded expecta-
tion of q profitable season. Their con-
fidence, however, is not based on the be-
lief that price increases which have
taken place since the first of the year
will necessarily be permanent
There have been slow gains in en-
ployment and in car loadings of COM
modities other than coal. Despite the
coal strike, pig iron and steel produc-
ton during April were at annual rates
about the same as those of 1913. the
best prewar year. and the industry was
at about 20 per cent. of capacity.
The one adverse factor that has de-
veloped this spring is the failure of the
retail trade to meet expectations This
has tended TO raise doubts in the minds
of some business men. on the contrary.
the retail situation should be regarded
as a favorable symptom. Falling retail
prices mark the last stage OF the de-
preston and retail trade and related i'm
dustries must now await recovery in
basic industries.
THE depression of 192o-2i has come
to :, cfoea and hiiSircsa ia exnandinpr