New-York tribune., 1922-09-14
Motor Trades
Optimistic ON
Business t rerld
M. S. RuiScyser, Tribunc's
Financial Editor, i'm Com
vention Address al Buff
falo Calls Outlook Bright
Panicky Era Is Passing
Predicts Period of Increased
Buying on More Profit
able Basis for the Sellers
I,rom a staN correapondcn.


BUFFALO, Sept. 13-The men be-
hind the scenes in the automotive in
dustry the makers of basic parts and
accessories, gathercd here to-day to
exchange experiences and ideas for
the autumn and spring of 1923 trade as
a group. They were more optimistic
regarding the business outlook than at
any tine since the post-armistice boom
eliminated early IN 1920.
At the first days session of the Motor
and Accessory Manufacturers Associa-
tion's sixth annual convention at the
Lafayette Hotel. Merrylc Stanley
Rukeyser, financial and business editor
of The New York Tribune, was the
principal speaker. Following his ad-
dress, analysts and credit experts from
within the indsutry participated in on
open forum discussion and indorsed his
opinion that the revival in business
would continue and was likely to be
transformed into a period of intense
prospe rity.
Big Factors on Asset Side
"As for the OUTLOOK" Mr.. Rukeyser
said, next years automobile business
ought to be satisfactory. In most
respects the factors which can be fore
seen must be placed on the asset side.
The main exception is the fact that
| part of the 1922 buying, which resulted
| during several months in the breaking
OF all previous production records, was
due to the accumulated demand which
had become pent up during the de-
| preston of the latter part of 1920 and
of 1921.
| "On the side of favorable influences,
most OF them can be expressed in the
phrase better general financial and
industrial conditions
ut does not take a soothsayer to
know that business is on the upgrade.
In many industries the revival has
been going on slowly, almost impercep-
tbly, for year. Although | do not
undertake to predict regarding the
future | nevertheless see no reason,
financial or economic, for assuming
| that the recovery has gone as far as
it will go. On the contrary, the pre-
! dominant Wall Street opinion is that
the revival will go substantially
| further
up to the present the Improvement,
bi oadly speaking, has been principally
in the physical volume of trade, in the
increased employment of labor, in the
greater or less stabilizaton of prices,
and particularly in the complete dis
appearance of the panicky feeling.
Expects Better Profits
Despite these enormous gains. there
has rot yet been especially profitable
business in most lines this year.
The aftermath of tn depression has
left the BUSINESS world highly compet
tive, with many UNITS fighting dogpedly
for trade, often at the expense of
profits, This narrowing of the margin
OF profits may. n some os the less fav-
ored industries, result in secondary
waves of troubles among the weaker
and less efficient producers. In the
next phase of the business circle, which
think we are soon to enter, period
OF heightened buying, accompanied by
business obtained on a basis more
profitable to the sellers, may be ex-
pected."
The speaker cited statistical indices
to show that credit had been abundant
and that the factors making for de-
preston to large extent had been
overcome
The fundamental statistical facts
the speaker continued "justify the
same conclusion as the ordinary OBJ
seryation of the layman; namely, that
business is on the mend"