Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1922-12-02

we find 1t dlV1dlng
itself into four big divisions and we
find that the business depression
traces its regular course through this
industrial fabric.
First, there is the Raw Materials
Group. or iron and steel companies,
coppers and oils. crop n live stock
producers. Second therelis the Trans
%portation Group. the railroads and
steamships. Third. there Is the Manu-
featuring Group with it's automobile
factories. textile mills and the other
Fourth, and finally there is the Dis
%tribution Group headed by the whole
sale houses, mail order firms, chain
stores. and finishing with the multi
tude Of retail Adjustments.
Now what happens to these Big
Four Groups when a business depres-
sion hits the country? The first to
suffer is the Manufacturing Group. This
is partly the result of financial string
ency. Take the recent depression, it
appeared first among shoe factories.
textile mills, and other factories. In a
broad way these are concentrated in
the northeast section Of the country.
and it was entirely characteristic. 1t
is what happened also in earlier per-
iod of business depression. Far
sighted executives foresaw long in ad-
>N SAo 80 "oAlu NC HS tlISl
part OF the country to weaken, because
Is 1t the home of the Manufacturing
Group,
Then comes the next act in the
drama OF depression. As the logical
result OF currailed manufacturing, we
get a slump in the Rev Materials
Group. When a shoe factory shuts
down. orders for leather shrink. When
a textile mill closes, demand for cot
ton n wool dies down. So the initi-
al in the northeast spreads
to the west and the south. The west
n the south are the home Of the
Raw Materials Group.
"As traffic in finished goods and raw
materials subsidies, there is lessened
activity for the Transportation Group.
h railroads fall INTO line on the
downward march.
The tragedy closes with the last
act, namely, the downfall of the Dis
trlbutlng Group, numbering the great
mass of retailers scattered throughout
the entire country who are caught
with high cost goods. The economic
curtain falls on a and sunk in almost
universal depression.
we have just seen all his enacted
before our eyes. With this sequence
of events still fresh in memory, a bust
ness man is blind, indeed. who cannot
foresee the pageant Of returning pros
perity. Manufacturing activity has
been resumed. The northeast is well
advanced on recovery. The south and
TO some extent the west are looking
better as the Raw Materials Group
begin to struggle to their feet. Car
p has changed to car shortage,
rejecting and measuring the revival of
the Transportation Group.
But the ina stage is still before us.
We have yet to witness full
ton among the great rank and file of
retailers who constitute the final
group Of the Big Four the Trading
Group.
Therefore, ] estimate that i'm
proVement is not yet General and that
the best is yet to come, when all the
Big -Four Groups shall participate in
prosperity. Those who apprehend that
the Dull movement in the stock mar
ket IS at an end. might we'll question
"netner recovery can in any sense be
complete with the enormous Distri-
putting Group still to be heard from.
II IS true, OF course, that the stocks
u Inc so-cailed trading corporations
SNOW a substantial advance. This ia
partly because the stock market dis
counts n successive steps in busin ess
revival. But a more Mt rea-
son is that the trading corporations
~so-called, with their immense national
rainllcatlon tend to part COMPANY
with the smaller individual retailer
other groups. ~
III you are a retailer, don't get dis
couraged II your sales seem to lag be
mind general business. This is merely
the working out OF economic laws
your turn will come-and he who
laughs last sometimes laughs best. II
SS"vuu are an investor, l suggest that the
swing is concerned-will not hnaiiv
culminate until improvement is gen.
erai; improvement cannot be genera
until shared by the millions of big and
l1ttle retailers in cities and crossroads
throughout the entire nation"
Genera business is holding its re-
cent Improvement. The index or the
Babsonchart shows general activitv
ABOUT 80 below normal-the same A.
~ Von