Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1922-06-06
FEDERAL ESTIMATES
INDICATE SHORTAGE
IN COTTON YIELD
Adverse Weather Conditions
Have Done Young Plants
Much Damage-Inroadso Of
Boil WeeviI Feared
BY ESTES DOREMUS

The report of the United states
department of agriculture issued
Friday, showing the condition of the
growing crop to be 69.6 per cent of
normal, az of May %, not only Of
fers little hope of averting short
age this year, but indicates that
there is not going to be enough cot
ton to go around.
This was the forecast made IN
these columns a week ago, and o.
car w. Riggs, writing in the New
York Journal of Commerce. under
date of June 1, warns the world
against a cotton famine in 1922. In
this connection Mr.. Riggs says:
1.-The cotton world is profoundly
stirred by the fear of a cotton fam
inc. 1t may come from partial
failure of the American crop, fol.
lowing a partial failure last season.
Such a misfortune twice in success
sion would indeed be a grave mat
ter. 1t may come from rains and
cold weather this spring, followed
by serious damage by the boil wee
vii in the critical months to come,
especially in July and August. It's
propagation was favored by mild
winter and prolonged spring rains.
It already has appeared in some
parts of the belt"
The condition figures of last week,
while 3.6 per cent above those of
crete evidence of the great damage
done the young plant by adverse
weather conditions and floods and
1t would seem almost impossible
that conditions from now on could
be favorable enough to turn out
q crop much larger than is gener-
ally expected, must less one of ST.
ficient proportions to meet the con-
stantly growing demand.
Boil Weevil Alarming
The May condition compares with
a 10-year average of 74.6 per cent
for the entire crop and the 'condi-
ton of II per cent for Georgia also
is below the average for this state.
The same time last year the condi-
ton in Georgia was 60 per cent, and
the state ultimately made approx
mately 100000 bales against about
100000 in 1920.
While the matter Of weather con-
sditions always is uncertain, it is
believed that almost irreparable
damage already has been done by
rains and that the boil weevil will
finish the job. The past has ap-
peared in many sections of the belt,
including portions of Georgia, and
where the squares have not formed,
1t is attacking the terminal bud. So
serious has the situation become
that meeting of agricultural ex-
perts and factors has been called
to meet in Memphis, Tenn. The
warning received there, according to
press reports, said that weevils were
appearing on cotton plants. before
they had doomed.
In addition to retardinr the
& owth of the plant and acceleratine
the appearance of the boil weevil,
the rains throughout May have pre-
vented any appreciate increase in
acreage this year. The estimate be.
ing S.4 per cent over 1921. The
range of experts has been from SIS
per cent to 10 per cent.
Inc government figures on acre.
age for 1921 were 31,678,OOO on
which crop or approximately
S,5OO.OO0 bales was made while the
Journal of Commerce last estimate
OF acr. ,ge for 1922 is 2S,747 900.
Acreage Figures
Basirg the expected increase nm
the government figures, the acreage
still would be about 100000 acres
below 1920 when 13,439, 500 bales
were made. In 1919 only II 42O, rs,
bales were made on 35,133,OOO acres
and in 1918, on 37,207, 900 acres, 10.
O40,532 bales were made.
1t is generally accepted that II.
100000 bales this year would fail to
meet the needs of the World with
the small carry-over, and already
some are talking of yield of $500.
600 bales, the most bullish argument
so far advanced. Even allowing the
10 per cent increase, the acreage for
1922 would be 100000 and it is
extremely doubtful if the increase
will be this large.
While some think that $4,000, 900
bales would be sufficient to tide the
world over this year, others say from
100000 to 2,000,0 900 more bales are
needed, and even in the event that
100000 bales were made, the fam
inc only would be postponed for 9
year with Just enough cotton to SUP.
ply present demands and no carry.
over to speak of.
The question now arises as to how
much cotton the world will need in
the face Of improved economic condi-
tions, the end of the textile strike iii
New England and the short stock
now held in Manchester. Federal
statisticians already are talking of
a consumption of 100000. Ameri-
can bales and many are of the be.
lief that it may reach $4,000. 900
bales. or even 100000 bales more
if the cotton is to be had.
There is no doubt of the improved
demand. which has been continually
reflected in the strength of the spot
market, which at times has shown
gains in the face of less strength
in futures:
Figures Discounted
The government figures on condi-
ton were much as expected and
the market, which already had dis
counted them, paid little attention
to them. There was fairly good
advance Friday towards the close
with spots here going to 2O.S5, the
high mark for 1922, but some prof
it.taking over the weekend caused
slight break, with spots easing
off to 20.75, about $45 a bale over
the same time last year and APP
nroximately SIS bale higher than
q month ago.
But ever since the low levels of
last March values have shown a
steady gain from day to day and
week to week, and while reactions
always are to be looked for, partic-
ularly in bull year, the trend of
Continued on Page 6, Column A.