Tombstone epitaph., 1922-11-12
THE FUTURE
SILVER MARKET

Engineering and Mining Jourual.
 The acute work of Dr. Phailhas on
 silver carries the study of the mar
 ket only 10 the end of 1921. although
 the volume was published in 1922
 Speaking for the period at the end of
 last year. Dr. Philhas points out that
 the absorption of silver produced in
 the United States for two years by ltho United States government is a
 factor supporting the market. but
 that there are other and unfavorabie
 factors Stocks of silver have accu-
 mulated. Besides the demands for
 silver is much reduced Industrial consumption suffers from the eco
 ndmic crisis the coinage of silver has practically ceased. and until exports Of commodities from India shall have
 reached their former activity. we can
 expect either a lasting rise in the price of silver nor even perhaps its maintenance at the present level"
 Since this opinion was written. the world price of silver actually sank, in February March. 1922. but rose
 with the general rise in the price of other metals. such as copper, lead and zinc. with the increased general commercial prosperity which mani fested itself in the spring. In May, however. slow sagging of silver prices began, which is still evident. although during these months the lead and zinc markets have been buoyant. and even The laggard copper market maintained and consolidated it's rise for many months
 The decisive factor in the relative price Of silver appears to be its use | in coinage, and the predominant eIe- ment in this coinage factor is the cor dition of trade in India and China, with their .oo,0O0.oco Of people who have little respect for paper money and are not rich enough 10 trade with gold.
 | The ability of these countries 10 amass wealth in the current form of silver depends upon their balance of trade. upon their exportation of con- modities to other countries In the fiscal year 1ee02I the normally fav- crable trade balance of India was changed into an unfavorable balance. In China, the trade balance is nor naNy avorab.e-imports exceed ex- pcrts-but in 1920 was phenonenany so. The miner of silver. and the pros pective miner who is conten plating mining silver for some years 10 come is. unlike the gold miner. primarily concerned with the market. He will observe how phenomenal degree his success will depend upon peace, pros perity and production in the Far East. | He will note that the present dis tuibed politica! conditions in the Far !, East and in Europe are a factor un- favorable to a great demand for si,- ! yer for rupees or taels Or pesos It l is likely that for years to come Flu rope will conserve the economies | which has instituted in the coinage of her functional currency-tbe use of a appreciated standard of silver coinage or of substitutes of other | metals. or, in part, Of fractional paper currency. There is also the possibil- ity, if the Orien. prospers exceeding ly. that silver will be gradually re- placed by gold, movement which was already well in progress in India when the war broke up all regular movements
 That the United States production of silver will have to compete, ac- Ii cording to all probabilities. in the world .aaTkc: after CT even in the last part of 1923. is of course depressing factor in the estimation of the price {