Great Falls tribune. [volume] (Great Falls, Mont.) 1921-current, 1922-12-31
BY STUART p. WEST
Special Correspondent OF The Tribune
1922, by The Great Falls Tribune

forecast of 1923 can be attempted
which does not take into account the
possibility of a clash between Great
Britain and Turkey and the compllca-
tons to which this might lead IN the
rest of Europe, or secondly, which does
not consider the probable results OF an
unsatisfactory handling of the German
war indemnity.
without anything unusua happening
on the other side of the water, 1t would
be altogether reasonable to look for a
continuance of the gradual business
recovery which has been in progress
during the second half of 1922. Credit
which L. months ago had only begun to
loosen is now abundant enough to take
care Of all conceivable needs.
Production is back to what, before
the war. would have been regarded as
a normal volume, although still well
below the actual capacity of mills and
factories, as this has increased during
the last nine years. The most impor-
tant item Of the country's wealth mas
always been the crops, and these have
turned out we'll up to the average,
while the total value is some S2,OU.-
OO0. 900 greater than it was In y
Buying Power Increased
1t is true that so large a part of the
grain and cotton crops was marketed
early in the harvest season that farm
ers by no means got the advantage OF
the large advance which occurred pc
tween the middle of September and the
close of December. 1t is also true tina
high freight rates have made the dis
c~repancy unusually great, between
prices on the farms and those at the
d%istributive cents upon which comph-
cations of total values rest. Never
theless. the rise of the last three
months in the commodity markets has
improved immensely the buying power
of the agricultural district, so this will
be turned to the good Of the business
community during the coming year:
Granting, moreover, a continuance or
present price levels, the complaint 30
often heard in the spring and summer
that the farmers as a class were worse
off than any other laboring body VIII
be in a fair way to disappear.
1t was not until the third and fourth
quarters of the year that the steel.
"copper". zinc and other of the metal
producers began to operate in the
black. Increased output was neutral
lied by inability to get down labor costs
and by the serious effect of the coal
and railway shipments strikes. =.
The steel mills are now employed
at between rs and 80 per cent of ca
pacity. but since that always happens
in a period of industrial recuperatlon.
prices do not progress toward normal
with the same rapidity as production.
Consequently the less favored steel
producers are forced to do business at
a margin of profit which brings them
in relatively little money.
Mergers Enter
How largely this position will be
altered BY the mergers Of independent
steel companies which have been shut
through during the year remains to be
seen, In the meantime the prediction
made 10 months ago that 1922 would
be the season of gradually improving
business conditions conducted, however,
under active competition and for a
comparative return, has been abund-
antly borne out in the majority OF in
dustrial lines.
No question has been more vexing
than that of foreign trade and n of
the most agreeable features of the
situation has been the marked EVIL
dences of a change for the better in
the October and November export fig
ures. To be sure. the rise In wheat
and cotton had as much effect in swell
ing the totals as any increase IN the
volume. But the main point is that
foreign nations, in spite of their de-
preciated currencies were able to. buy
during these two months $3.50, 600, 900
more in the American market than
during the two months of January and
FeLruary last. Here was complete up
set of the economic theory that while
the greater part of Europe was viz
tually bankrupt. our foreign comTserc
could not hope for any turn.
The fact that even bankrupt nations
did not lose their buying power. SO
long as they are exchanging their
products with those of other countries
They must supply their needs in the
shape of food and raw materials at
any cost, and il is evident that when
American exports were running as they
were a year ago at less than S3OO,OOo,
600 a month. this represented the ire
ducible minimum beyond which foreign
effort to curtail expenditures in this
market could not go.
Record Car Loadings
There has been no more trustworthy
measure of the extent of the indus
trial recovery than the record breaking
railway car loadings during the autumn
These cannot be accounted for by ar
unusual crop movement, for the har-
vests were of ordinary size. What they
do reflect IS a general volume Oh dis-
tributive trade exceptionally larger. ac-
aording to all past standards. As the
year ends the problem of the shortage
Of railway equipment has to a con-
siderable degree been solved. Still the
railroads are far behind where they
ought to be in cars and locomotives
in order to efficiently handle the bust
ness offered. The need of buying free
ly new equipment and at the same time
providing extra amounts for mainten-
ancc of way, to undo the effects Of the
period of government operation, is the
most powerful argument against reduc-
ton in freight rates.
However, the agitation for com
puisory lowering of rates will appear
among the problems Of 1923, depends
upon whether there is to be an extr;
session of congress Introducing thu
radical elements which were successful
mt the November elections. At tn,
moment it appears doubtful whethel
the administration. against it's will cal
be forced into calling congress togethe,
In the late spring. If the business
world could be assured positively tina
the new congress vas not to ASSEMBLE
until next December. it would be
rause of profound relief.
Turning to conditions abroad tn
mos+ notable achievement of the Won