New Britain herald., 1922-05-20
ECONOMIST URGES BUSINESSMEN TO
 BE OPTIMISTIC; SEES BETTER FUTUE

'-ralk about musicians and actors being temperamentall They cannot beat tho average business man who Is up today and down tomorrow. Within n period of sixty days he will bs . pessimist. an optimist, and back again to peshmist, when all the time nature is slowly but surely fol- lowing It's natural course." raid Roger W. Bnbson In hts weekly interview on business conditions. -
 Improvement In August
 "A year ago business men were very pessimistic; then came tenn. porary upturn in business and follow ing the lead of certain federal officials and prosperity boomers. they became optimistic. Since, however, these prosperity forecasts have not matur- cd. they are again down in the dumps How long will 1t take us to lcarn that presidents don't make business, but rather business makes presidents. It Is true that conditions are dull at the present time partly on account of the late wet spring, partly due to the floods of the south, partly due to tbe strikes in New England and New York state, and partly due to the upset con. ditions in Europe. When. however, business is looked upon from long range it will be seen that 1t is pass ing through only 2 natural readjust- ment which takes always considerable time. I stated over two years ago that no permanent improvement could be expected before August, 1922, and I still feel that way. Even after the corner turns in midsummer or fall of this year, 1t will be a slow although a steady climb upward.
 Silks Going Good
 "On the other hand. xs all indus tries were not hit at the same time, they will tend to come back at diff ferent times The industry that was This was the silk industry and change for ths better is already In evidence. The industry which was most suppressed during the war will show the greatest recovery during the next few years: indeed, it is already recovering. I have in mind the build ing industry. There is a marked in- crease in the demand for all build ing materials notably lumber, al. though iron and steel are sharing in the building boom. The sales of and paints have increased. 1T labor does not become too hungry for increased wages this spurt in new building may develop into real boom.
 Autos To Come Back
 Another industry which should quickly show better employment is the automobile industry especially the makers of the more expensive cars. These makers were the first to be hit and these should b the first to come back. Following booms in the stock market the makers of expensive cars and other semi-luxuries always ex- perlence good business. For the first time in two years and half, rubber factories at Akron are advertising for help. This same improvement in the situation is noticeable also in certain steel centers such as Youngstown, Ohio, and hardware cen- tcrs such as Ansonia. Conn, where a wage increase of Is per cent went in- to effect May 18th.
 Commodity prices are likewise ad- justing themselves naturally. Those products which were first to decline such as cotton, sugar and lumber are showing q hardening tendency, while other products such as furs, that were bought by the masses during the war in great quantities, are showing continued declines.
 25 Per Cent. Improvement
 "At the recent fur auctions, silver fox was 25 per cent lower than in February, marten 40 per cent lower, and other furs are falling in propor- tion. Better still, the cost of living as whole is still on the decline. A man can purchase for 75 cents today what cost him a dollar a year ago. Retail sales are holding up very well, the mail order houses are showing in- creases, western shoe manufacturers are busy, and furniture factories are working on liberal schedule Even coal production is holding up fairly we'll
 All of this means that there is no reason why the banker. manufactur- CT, or merchant should be a pessi- mist or an optimjst today. Neither the prosperity boomers nor the ca lamity howlers should be followed Business has not yet turned the cor ner, but it is naturally and steadily approaching the corner. No nation could go through the great industrial development which this country ex- perienced during the war without natural reaction. This reaction we are passing through today We have reached the end of the de- cline in the security markets These are well on their way up- ward Within few months, con- cluded MT. Babson i've should reach the end of the decline in general busi- ness Honesty, thrift industry, and the spirit of service will hasten the day"