davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31

]. Cotton, the great Southern crop
is selling to-day a. price approx
mately 30 per cent higher than 1t was
ono year ago.
?. Sugar, which in so far as the United
States is concerned is almost exclu-
sively a Louisiana crop, has enjoyed
an increase in price Of about the same
percentage
3. Unemployment in New Orleans Is
just about normal.
4. The clearings Of the New Orleans
banks show an increase Of % per cent
while debts 70 individual accounts
have increased about 20 per cent.
3. Demand deposits Of New Orleans
banks have increased from $50, 100000
20 Sll1,0OO.O 900, and total hank deposits
have grown from 65,OOO,OOO 10 S2Ob-
100000.
8. The loans and discounts in the
New Orleans banks one year ago
totaled Sl48,OOO, 900. To-day they are
Si54, 600, 900.
2. The amount Of money borrowed
from. the Federal Reserve Bank on
December IS, 1921, was approximately
$4,000 900, while on December ID,
1929, the amount in round figures was
but s6.0O0.00O.
Although New Orleans Is the largest
manufacturing city in the South. ard
also the second port Of the United
States in the amount and value OF rs
exports and imports. 4 generous pro
portion Of the city's business prosperity
is based on the agricultural and min
eral resources Of L0uiGiana and near
ez states This being the case, IL Is
intsrssting 70 note that duriag 1922 the
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Imitation ia Sight

II we arc 70 have a period Of incrcas-
ing business activity, therefore u iol-
lows that imitation and high money
rates will come az an earlier date than
has been customary IN the past. high
money rates. Of course, presuppose
rise i'm the yield basis OF outstanding
bonds. Il may be argued that the gov
eminent. through agricultural export
,rodits. will supply great part Of the
necessarv capital increase, but IN inc
last analysis credit. whether original
ing i'm the government or m the smail'
est bank IN the country, All comes out
OF the same reservoir. 49,.
First and last. the business situation
~ the big factor 20 be considered. Any
ono who can appraise the industrial
outiook accurately b. bound 10 be riRht
on tho Investment situation assuming
ihat tho proper allowance is made Tor
tho extraordinary conditions mere
enumerated: .
First-The capital starvation OF
Europe. We cannot accept the level OF
bond prices Of a decade ago as g guide
10 the ultimate goal Of the present
market without giving due weigh, 20
the fact that the rest or the world is
selling securities in the American mar.
ke+. Ten years ago the flow OF capital
was I'm the other direction.
Second-The vast increase IN do
nestle and foreign capital issues COM
peting for favor with the American
Investor.
Third The existence Of huge
United States government funded ana
floating debt.
Fourth-The high rate OF existing
income taxes and the prospect that
they viii remain q fixture Tor many
years. driving capital into tax exempt
securities TO the detriment Of corporate
borrowers
Fifth-Thc Federal Reserve system
--non-eyistcnt ten years ago-giving
banks the privilege Of rediscounting
the paper Of their customers az rate
lower than the yield on bonds, which
they hold and thereby posiponing the
sale Of bonds bought Tor temporary
investment at times when the ratio
OF loans TO deposits was abnormally
low
These and other interrelatcd factors
represent TOO formidable an array Tor
the average investor 90 assimiiate
without on attack Of Indigestion.
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
RupPrecht Sees
Good Year Ahead
For Cotton Goods
Rv Frederick <. Ruppreeht

By Frederick x. KuPPrecht
President CoHUerso & Co.; chair
man Executive Committee, Con-
solidoted Tertiic Cooperation.
TN THE closing months Of the
year the cotton gooas market
n has been strong and general
trading and demand satisfactory.
The fact that spot cotton In New
York is selling around 26h cents,
as compared with cents at this
time in 1921, sums up the reason
why prices all down the line from
print cloths TO finished fabrics are
relatively high. and the outlook, 20
far as cotton is cnceroned, does not
encourage the belief that these
prices will be lower.
Assuming, as do, that general con-
ditions next year will be satisfactory,
look forward 20 excellent business
In all kinds of cotton textiles.
Tho past year has been one Of Sc
we're adjustments, which have not yet
produced stable conditions 80 far a.
labor Is concerned. The New England
mills, however. are now, generally
Speaking, IN a stage Of active produe-
tlon. The general shortage of labor
will affect Southern as well as North
ern mills. and perhaps tend 70 equallze
the great disparity In wages and hours
that now exists between the two sec
tions Of the country.
I'm the case Of our organization, IN
particular, we have been most fortu-
nate IA bringing about an affiliation
which results in William NJ. Wood and
A. G. Pierce jr, OF the American
Woolen Company becoming, respective.
ly, director-gencral and president OF
Consolidated Textile. and the results
Of their operating management cannot
fail 10 be Of benefit. not only to Con-
solidated and It's subsidiaries, but ulll-
mately 20 the consumer as welL
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31

buying. and when all the factors arc
considered IL is plain that any material
increase IN business will create q cap
ital shortage much quicker under eT-
istine conditions than would have been
tho case under the prc-war order OF
things.
The current balance Of trade, both
visible and invisible. and the accumu-
lated international balance arc such
that the conduct OF export business
must. from the American standpoint,
be vastly more expensive, because this
country has found increasing necessity
for tho extension Of long-tcrm COM
mcrcial credits. As the average term
of commercial credit increases the
ability Of n given volume Of capital 10
finance trade decreases. In other
words. tho rate Of capital turnover is
lower and exhaustion Of capital comes
sooner.
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
COpper's RecOUery

Coppcr is one Of tho basic American
industries. In this country moro OF
the metal IS mined. smclted and re-
fined than in all the rest Of the world
put together. For many years copper
was regarded moro or less as ba-
rometcr Of general business conditions,
yet II has experienced amazing price
fluctuations during the last twenty
eight years. The war affected the cop
per industry as il did no other. From
the day the armistice was signed cop
per has been engaged in a fight to re-
habilitate itself. II has conducted its
own battle and now, az the close OF
one Of our hardest years, We find do
nestle consumption substantially great
er than IL was before the war
Europe continues to take large guam
titles Of American copper Necessarily.
however. there will for some time 90
come be more or less uncertainty about
Europe as consumer OF American
products. ] sec nothing alarming in
the foreign situation so far as copper
a. concerned. but ] am convinced that
We have great markets right here IN
the United States for copper and lts
chief alloys, hrass and bronze, which
have as yet been only partially de-
vtloped.
There Is scarcely an industry which
does not require copper in some form
OF another. There is, as "A matter OF
fact. no commercial metal which comes
90 close 20 the life of our people. In
every modern home quantities Of cop
Per. brass and bronze are 20 be found.
IN certain uses they arc actually indis-
pensable; in others so obviously desir-
able from the standpoint of economy
and service that there isn't much argu-
ment about their use once they are un-
derstOod.
Through the Copper and Brass Re.
search Association, an organization OF
producers Of copper and fabricators
and manufacturers Of copper. brass and
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31

Thus. as the new year begins we find
three distinct theories on tho future
course OF investment securities. One
is TO the effect that bonds and that
class Of stocks whose value is deter
mined entirely By the price Of money
reached the end OF their forward
movement toward tho close OF the
third quarter Of 1922 and arc now
pointed definitely downward; another
10 tho effect that the investment mar
ket. having asslmilated its gains and
absorbed all ths speculative and cor
poratlon offerings. will now continue
the advance at n much subducd pace;
and still another theory a compromise
between these two to the eject that
with moderate rise in money and conf
modify prices taken for granted. II IS
possible for bonds and other securi-
ties OF a purely investment character
10 huetuate narrowly without gaining
or giving ground. The last named opcr-
alton would produce the kind Of market
that has existed since the middle Of
last November, with allowances made fo,'
short periods Of reinvcstmont buying
and subsequent reaction.
II goes without saying that one OF
these schools OF thought will be found
TO have been in error.
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Demand Increasing

This movement has met with definite
success, resulting in increased business
for the rolling mills Of the country and
q steadily increasing demand on the
resources Of the mining companies.
The year 1922 was great building
year II is estimated that more than
$4,000. 600. 900 was invested in building
enterprises We look for fully as big
a building year in 1928; in fact, under
certain conditions an even larger sum
may 20 into building The copper and
brass industries played q very large
part in this and probably will play an
even greater part in the building OF
1923. Years like these arc not likely
10 rccur. The country is catching up
with itself and those whose products
20 into building construction must
make the most OF conditions as they
now are.
The electrical industry will, Of
course continue 20 consume large
quantities Of copper and copper alloys.
u is only a matter OF time when the
great water powers now running TO
waste in this country will be har-
messed and made TO serve the people,
and when that happens the part that
copper will play will, OF course, be
very important one.
Copper is not n precious metal;
neither is brass nor bronze.
IIt is true that they represent
a slightly higher initial price than
ot1er commercial metals, due 20 the
cost OF their production. but they
more than make up for this by their
long life, their resistance 20 corrosion
and the entire absence Of upkeep and
replacement expense which they rep
resent. For general roofing purposes
conner. properly applied. has no peer;
for plumbing. brass is without an
equal, while in hardware there is no
metal which gives the service or the
!
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Wall Street FoHO,cs Business

Wall Street is an arena IN which
business men OF Che country enter the
lists Through their brokers or agents.
10 buy or sell securities at the first
moment that the conditions or general
business, which they sense and feel and
know. manifest themselves % them.
Tho typical business man who thus
buvs or sell securities as dictated by
conditions Of his own business may
be located i'm Kokomo, Ind, but his
order must be executed on the New
York Stock Exchange. and hence Wall
Street is given credit for being the
carly worm. Wall Street lmeaning
thereby the professional banker, broker
and tradef) follows the trend Of the
business man.
In other words. stock market move
,nents are inevitably credited 10 wall
Street. whereas the factors which
bring them about more often originate
west and cast and north and south
Of Wall Street and thc principals be-
hind the buying and selling orders
which. in the aggregate, turn the mar
kets either up or down are quite as
ant 70 be average, everyday business
men who never saw the New York
stock Exchange. Professionals, pools
Traders. etc, represent the froth OF the
speculative wave. They never consti-
tute the wave itself.
Hence. the speculation Of the typical
business man will determine security
fluctuations next year.
This business man knows that his
own business has been Improving since
August. 1921. II he is a manufacturer
in Inc Eastern States, his business be-
Gan 20 improve in earnest sixteen
1onths ago. II hc Is a manufacturer
in tac Middle West. his business be-
can TO improve a year ago. II he is
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
rAgassiz Notes Marked
-
Improvement in Copper
Attributes Recovery Mainly to Inlen-
sive Development of Our
Home Markets
By r. l.. Agassiz

pent Calumet aud Hcca Mining Company President Copper E<
80 Aoeao President Copper and Brass Research Association
r1HERE are evils in the wake Of that
fbng anything Of constructive growing
the turmoil chaos Of the world disturbance passed
II seems that the brought American business
discovery truth which they had only partly appreciated before
that potenates Of the American market greater
% any had supposed that by industry and the intelligent handling
~ cs confronting consuming capacity be brought
% where will almost productive
that should ignore be Indifferent foreign markets
% such have developed during the years
~ sufficient vitality right here home adequately any
..,,c, 4totr
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Rail Consultations

9. Do you regard consoldaton'
.f.tor in oecordance with the tenta-
tive plan Of the Interstate Commerce
Commission or upon some otnef
basis. as advantageous 20 your ROAD
or 10 tho railroads in generalF
Consultations may or may not De
adyisable. II depends upon the cases
Generally Il would seem consultations
that follow rational developments
hitherto and perhaps accord with ex'
isting physical facts are preferable 90
empirlcR groupings Of lines. The ad'
vantages 20 roads from consolidation
are direct functions Of the facts o. 10
what properties are consolidated ana
tho art manifested In the organization
OF the consolidated property.
Q. What problem In connection
with the transportation situation 90
you regard as most pressing az this
timer
In the interest Of the users Of Tho
railroads IL is most desirable that they
shall be free from additional legisla-
ton and other interferences. Mhat
they need is cooperation, both from
the branches Of government that have
10 do with them and from the puolie'
as well as among themselves. There -
noed also, as has been pointed out IN
the answer % a previous question, Of
fixing a consistent measure o. duty TOT
each carrier with respect 70 its equip
ment ownership obligation. IL Is ike
wise important that the labor situa-
tion be treated locally on its own
merits. Attempts at unideaton have
been unsatisfactory 10 all concerned
Such a viewpoint is likely 20 make
each question a national one and per-
hans ultimately national menace,
There are geographical. industrial and
even racial conditions which diheren-
tiate these problems and because OF
which attempts nc Standardization Cor
unifcation) are not sor the welfare OF
tho country.
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31

bronze, campaign Of education was
launched about a year ago. This cam
paign has automatically become part OF
the better materials movement which
has been gaining so much headway OF
late. Our purpose was to give people
accurate information concerning cop
per and It's alloys bring home TO
them the ultimate saving accomplished
bv their use
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31

Capital stocks represent ownership
Of businesses and the aggregate
average selling price Of securities ~
any given time represents the valua-
tion placed upon general business by
the aggregate opinion OF business men
and investors throughout tho country.
These men, il they are % be success
ful, must anticipate changing business
conditions and their analysis OF tho
future is translated into stock market
action. When q business mans own
affairs arc prosperous and promise 10
continue 30 he becomes hullish and
buys stocks and he tells his friends
and acuuaintances 90 do the same
thing. Conversely, when be pcrcclvcs
check 20 expansion in his own busi-
ness he accepts 10 as danger signal
and sells stocks and simultaneously
occasions a lot OF selling by others.
Thus 10 is that an great movements,
either up or down, in security prices
are simultaneous with the changes in
general business. The knowledge that
business is improving or declining IS
known in advance by the insiders Of
the business and they either buy
or sell stocks accordingly. When the
facts Of general business arc recorded
and reach the public IN the form Of
statistics. the prior action Of the bust
ness man and his following has al
ready had its effect upon the price OF
the securities ard hence Wall Street
Is given the credit for anticipating
business chanrce. u doesn't. 10 an
ffcipafnr fhoir publ licafiOu.
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31

ifNifif VIfNfNta NfI Nf.HH' ~ t" WV r.
cipal questions ictioh are likely 10 arse
ia me operation Of the railroads Of The
country during The coming ycar)
I. Do you expect any material
changes in either rates or wages dur
ing the coming year? II 50, to what
cxtcnt2
We cannot hope 90 be wholly free
40 any time from n discussion Of rates
and wages. Fluctuations IN business
tend 20 ease one and aggrayate the
other, or vice versa. A contended, orr
derby, busy state OF the country, free
from agitation for political or eonsti-
tUtiCnAl changes, should perhaps result
boz q more even tenor Of the conduct
OF each constituent industry m the
country, and perhaps best promote the
individual prosperity and happiness OF
all its citizens. II such sentiments
pervado the minds Of a large number
OF people IN the country this ought 20
be n good year. accompanied by an
Improvement in the condition Of rail-
way properties and in the efficiency
Of their service TO the public.
.. IN your opinion, what changes,
il any. should be made in the trans
portation act?
70 s bad 20 be continually changing
the law or the standard OF regulation.
The reasons are the same as those set
forth in the answer 20 Question /.
3. To what extent have the roads
been able 70 bring shop forces back
90 normal and TO overcome deferred
equipment maintenance, II any2
Many roads have normal shop forces
and are making substantial progress 10
overcome the effect OF the strike. Steps
we're on foot before the strike which
meant the liquidation Of deferred
equipment maintenance and where the
shop forces have resumed anything
like normal activities the progress to-
wards suitable condition Of the equip
ment is substantial This ought, with
no extrancous interferences and with
contontmont on the part Of the forces
to achieve satisfactory results during
the year.
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Prosperity Factor

What factors are 60 be given great
est weight in attempting 10 get clear
vision Of the future? The state Of
business is a primary consideration,
IN not the most important Of all. BY
comparison with the abnormal activity
OF the war period industry still has
much progress TO make before capacity
production Is realized. But measured
by the standards Of prc-war times, ac-
tivity at the turn of the year assumes
tho proportions OF real boom, and
This height has been reached without
material expansion Of credit and with
many Of the more fortunately situated
corporations still well supplied with
reserves Of cash and securities. With
out attempting to forecast the duras
ton Of current business activity it is
a reasonable assumption that the pres
ent pace can be maintained over a long
period without calling for decline
in bond prices either through liquida-
tion By corporations and banks or or
account Of a rcadjustment OF yields
10 conform 10 n higher level Of money
rates. Expansion Of business is another
matter and IL is one Of the pertinent
subjects open for much mental speeu'
lation.
Every one has been made aware,
especially in recent months, that Amer
lea cannot be considered apart from
the rest OF the world. at least IN an
economic sense. American business
can get just 30 far without broaden
ing OF exports. A fairly we'll deter
mined percentage Of any increase IN
activity must have is origin IN foreign
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
End OF Up,cdrd Trend

Il will make precious little difference
10 the inside business man or the pro-
fcssional operator about how far busi-
ncss declines. They will not bc buyers
~ stoek while the tendency IS down
ward. and By successive stag other
bueinesr men, and then the general
speculative public. will become sellers
and the market will probabl~ start n
long downward movement which will
NOT eliminate until the elections OF
1924 are a topic Of daily discussion.
Cprrent indications suggest that TIE
month NJ April will be the record
month not only for 1928 but for yeas
In Inc volume and value OF genertl
business. II IL Is, then we should looat
for n culmination Of the l92l-ls23 bull
market about that time.
pnt hv the same token, II the TOP
of the 1g2i-'23 business cycle has NOT
been reached. neither has the top OF
the tg2f-'23 bull market. and we 90
not tbink IL will be reached until peo-
Mo arc discussing earning reports ior
tbc Grst quarter OF the year when
sbcuid mean some time after April l.
n b,gincfs tendencies are needed 70
nrovc tbis. we think you viii ind them
.,yings In the steel industry, which
wonld call for culminatien OF the
prescnt expansion before June /; IN
tbe seasonal records Of the automobile
irJustTv, which would call for re
marfabie business during the next four
months and then a gradual easing on;
AID hrally in the average GutHllou ~
stock market swings themselves Wnleh
reidom record a bull movement Of more,
tban eighteen months TO TWO years
duration. and by tina, time the cur
rent bull movement viii have been IN
existence twenty months
~. --...,.,ivo ftie interesting article
b., ~ a.. Pjsea Pra',-e of Bornblewer & Weeks,
Tbc Tyisrge calis attention 70 The taet
f5et he Uicigs erpresscd arc ~
FGgnFs. The Tribune does rot under
fate 70 give advice on speculative mat
fcrs nor TO Joyeeast stock Pr'e'''-
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Sees End of Bull Movement
In Stocks About April, 1923
Business Men viii Feel Slowing Up of Trade Before
End of Spring and Will Begin to Sell
Securities, Fayne Predicts
By ]. A. Fayne

HAVE been story the 1923 market thousand
words told in three Stocks will fuuate In what order
they will nucuate for how long period alternate swings will
do with speculative Developments
speculative developments in turn have to do with general bus
conditions security prices always reflection Of
business prospects entirely different thing from saying that
security will advance and when business IS
ns,rild dnclin
New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
The OutIOOk for Bond Prices
During the Coming Year
State of Business Is Primary Consideration; Effect
. of Prospective Initiation and Higher
Money Rates on Yield Basis
By Harold r. Bunce

TATSTICAL tables carried elsewhere this section tell an easily
understood story what accomplished IN the bond market dur
~ inc 1922 the lines Of that there are u
gesns year beginning may bring FORTH but m the invest
ment the conclusion though proceed
from common premises Apparently observers have failed to read
that was written between while still others have taken much
for granted in order to prove built from the roof downward