Albuquerque morning journal., 1922-12-26
OPTIMISM FELT
BY CABINE 7 MEN
FOR NEW YEAR
Conditions in Europe Over
shadow Horizon, but In
diCationS Are for I'M
proVement in u. S.

~ ~
provement in u. S.
At every conference on the state
OF the union'--as the old phrase
has it--that meets in Washington,
formally or informally, the spec
ters of fevered Europe and the de-
pressed state of American agri-
culture attend, bidden or unbid-
den. Every business man and ev-
cry statesman knows that either OF
these specters may upset every
rosy forecast of the Commercial
and industrial future. 1t appears
that the specter of agricultural dis
content is about to be laid so far
as it is within the capacity of gov
ernment to do 1t, but there are
many misgivings regarding Eu-
rope, and a gnawing thought even
in the mind of the most determined
opponents of economic intervention
in Europa that by doing nothing to
settle the problems Of Europe we
may be doing everything to rear
portentous problems for ourselves
1t is not surprising, therefore, to
find that several of the cabinet
members who contribute their
views to the Christmas number of
The Magazine of Wall Street on
what seems to them worthy of re-
mark, In the following columns re-
fer directly or indirectly to the in
cidence of the problem of Europe
and of our agricultural economics
on the present condition and the
business outlook. The president
gave particular attention to the ag-
ricultural position in his annual
message, and his disclaimer of re-
sponsibility for Europe betrays his
inward concern. Secretary Wal
lace, in his contribution to this
symposium, naturally devotes his
attention to the agricultural ques-
tion, but he finds that the unset
tied state of Europe is major fac
tor in determining it. Secretary
Mellon conditions his forecast of
the future on developments in Eu-
rope and dwells on the disparity
between the prices OF agricultural
commodities ana those of others.
Mr.. Hoover finds the farmers dis
tress obtruding itself in all his cal
NhAtNNAbAA9 tAAACNlAliS NOlllliltlIC
Note of Optimism
Every contributor to the sym
postum sounds at least minor
note of optimism. but Postmaster
General Work dispenses with all
depreciatory qualifications, and
boldly declares that we are ain the
midst Of a commercial and indus
trial activity such as this country
has not seen before" Attorney
General Daugherty mentions nei-
ther Europe nor agriculture. but
one suspects that the danger Of po-
liticaI infection from Europe was
in his mind when he wrote: 81 see
nothing in the fluX and change of
the times to alarm those who are
accustomed to base their opera
tions on faith in the United States
Of America" OF course Europe
troubles Mr.. Hughes, and the trou-
bles of the farmers and other IN
ternal problems are not ordinarily
topics at the state department.
Secretary Davis co~-os almost up to
DR.. Works level of optimism when
he declares that industrial peace
is near. Secretary Fall also makes
q characteristic contribution to
economic hopefulness when he
speaks of the natural riches yet at
our command at home, and the
stores of them that await our eco
uomic conquests of the tropics.
Perhaps the best approximation
of composite OF statements that
deal with both diverse and similar
topics is that all is surprisingly
well with America at the moment,
but tempered with apprehension
implied rather than spoken, that
the storms that rage abroad may
descend upon us and dash the fair
est prospect
Secretary Hoover says the most
remarkable feature of the COM
modify slump in our history was
that 1t was passed without panic.
He says:
'|rhe outstanding feature Of the
last fiscal year was that it mark
ed the low point in the most viol-
ent commodity slump in our his
tory. During the twelve months
both prices and manufacturing
production outside Of foodstuffs
fell off roughly 40 per cent, some
four to five million people were
unemployed and business stangat-
ed. Our recovery has been mar
vellously rapid, for. within sixteen
months after the bottom Of the
slump, unemployment was practic-
ally extinguished and production
was proceeding UP to IS and 95
per cent of normal. The readjust.
ments are still unequal In price
ieVels between various commodI-
Lles and between wage earners and
farmers. Nevertheless the outlook
IS SO improved over a year ago as
TO be scarcely comparable.
Inc most distinguishing fea-
ture of the slump was that for
the first time a major commodity
crisis-the greatest we have ever
taced-Was passed without panic
our rapid recovery is to be at
tributed to the fact that we were
not compelled in relief from finan-
clal panic to repair the vast dos
truction from bankruptcy that
has inevitably followed such
occasions. This fact is in main
due to the Federal Reserve system
which has successfully stood the
severest test that can ever be
applied to it.
"Fhe fall in the prices of agrl-
cultural produce during the rec
ent depression was the most viol-
ent of all commodity liquidations
In general way agricultural pri-
ces are upon the basis of about
one hundred and twenty-four
now, compared to pre-war one
hundred, while Industrial wages
and public services and manu-
factured commodities are upon
basis OF somewhat between one
hundred and sixty and one hun
dred and eighty, compared to pre-
war one hnnhral This is hv far