Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1922-05-23
AN ELECTION ESTIMATE.

On Wednesday, May II, the morning after the
Philadelphia primary election, the headline over the
election story in the New York Times read I'm.
chot Beaten in Primary Fight Perhaps by 100000"
In the article following a careful analysis of the
available returns is given. When the figures were
assembled, returns had been received from about
20 per cent OF the precincts ln,the state. The com.
pliers had used the methods commonly used by all
who make real estimates as distinguished from
guesses, of the results Of elections. They had taken
into consideration the known facts as to the prob
able trend of voting in different sections OF the
state In the light of these facts they had used the
returns actually available as the basis for an estimS
ate of what the final result would be, and had ar
rived at the conclusion that Pinchot was defeated,
as the headline writer put it, by 100000, or, as. IN
dictated in the body of the article, by a majority
which might reach 100000.
The New York Times is first of all a newspaper
and is not given to the stupid practice of classifying
election returns after the votes are cast. Its editors
know that the readers of the paper who are interest
ed in an election want cold facts and not froth the
day after an election. The paper has the means
wherewith to employ the most capable expert as
sistance in the collection Of election statistics and
in the preparation of estimates Of final results from
partial returns. Its purpose is to present to its
readers the best and closest estimate that can be
given. In this particular case the paper had no pos
sible reason for wishing to create any but a correct
impression of the size of the vote cast for Pinchot,
for the Times regarded his candidacy with decided
favor, and had always looked with strong disfavor
on the Pennsylvania Republican machine in opposi-
ton to which Mr.. Pinchot had.become a candidate.
Yet the best estimate that the Times was able
to give its readers on the morning after the election
was that Pinchot had been defeated by from 1o0,-
900 to 120, coo when, as a matter of fact, he had
been nominated by a small majority, running about
1000.
Mention is made of these facts just nov, {, few
weeks before an election in North Dakota, as a re-
minder that election forecastipg, and the estimating
of results after the votes are 0bt. and before the full
returns have been. received, is anything but an ex-
act science. In this case one of the greatest news
papers in the country, and one of the most pains
taking and accurate, erred by more than 100000
votes. 80
In the approaching election in this state, The
Herald and the newspapers associated with it in the
work, will employ substantially the methods which
were used in the preparation of the Times estimate,
in so far as these can be employed in a different
territory. Those methods are the only ones that
can be employed with any hope Of satisfactory re
suits. Usually we have been more fortunate here
than the Times was in the Pennsylvania case, but
in any election conditions may arise which will
throw us as badly off the track.
There are persons who profess to be able to tell
before an election just how the thing will 60, and to
name almost precisely the majorities Of the winning
candidates. Men who are really experts at the
game often miss by a wide margin when they have
a considerably proportion Of the actual returns tc
guide them. ~