New-York tribune., 1922-03-20
Opposition Gains Power
instead of Waning as
Premier Els hes and
Plays Golf in Wales
Resignation i'm Two
Weeks Predicted
Bases Hopes ON Solution
Of Irish Problem Loses
tercst i'm Genoa
By Arthur S. Draper


(copyriEht 1922 New York Tribune IncD
LONDON. March l9.-Tho result of
Lloyd Georges attempt to override the
British political crisis by retiring to
Crccicth Wales, until the storm blew
over has been far different from what
thc Premier hoped and expected. In
stead of weakening, the revolt of the
dle-hard Cnionists against the coalition
has grown stronger in the last week.
The Earl Of Derby has taken his stand
for the Unionist party and against the
coalition. The support of Edwin S.
Montagu's associates was lost when the
Secretary for India was dismissed. Now
even Austen Chamberlain, government
spokesman in the House of Commons.
and Sir Arthur J. Balfour are drifting
away from lloyd George and back into
the camp OF the orthodox conservatives.
With the Premier. who has steered
the British political ship With such mas
tery skill since 1916. off the bridge.
shipwreck of his coalition on the shoals
OF party discord now seems inevitable.
Political observers say that when Lloyd
George thought his absence from Lon
don would clear up the muddle he made
his first great political miscalcuIation.
Pemier Seeks Decision
Premier Lloyd George would keep
the present government in power longer
If he desired. but he doesn't He might
meet the demands of his conservative
supporters and everything would 20
along smoothly for while, but he will
not. because he knows that show
down must come eventually, and he
thinks now is a Qood q time as any.
Even such a friendly critic as J. l..
Garvin. writing IN The Sunday OBJ
server" says:
'The die-hards have killed the coai-
ton They have killed the Premier's
leadership. and in our view they have
made his Premiership untenabc with
credit
The prevailing belief in parliament
tarv circles is that the Premier will
resign within the next fortnight, after
gracefully withdrawing from his lead
crship in plans for the Genoa economic
conference. and that he will be sue
ceeded by a Cabinet headed BY Cham
berlain and including such men as Sir
Arthur Balfour, Lord Birkenhead, An
drew Bonar Law and Lord Derby. If
Bonar laws health had not forced him
out Of political life the last year there
is no doubt that he would have been
the next Premier.
New Ministry "a Makeshift
This Conservative ministry could
hardly be expected to maintain itself
IN power any considerable length of
time because the next general cleo
tlon undoubtedly will reduce the num-
Der OF The Unionists in the House Of
Commons
From parliamentary point of view,
Lloyd George has only one primary in
terest, and that is to see the Irish
treaty bill enacted. + that fell short
Of completion. it would be a consider
able blow to the Premier. II is almost
sure that the House of Lords. where
the bin is now under consideration,
will pass it, despite the unpopularity Of
the measure among the peers. But
the fact that if the Irish bill were
aral election on that issue alone and
probably win out because the country
at large is generally in favor of the
treaty.
The situation is complicated. more
over. by the difficulty which the Free
Staters are having in keeping the upper
hand in Ireland and in the possibility
that the Irish treaty may be defeated
when submitted at the Irish polls.
Under normal conditions the Irish UNI
doubtedly would Give a large majority
to the treaty. but conditions are alb
normal and are growing worse in both
north and south Even the most con-
servative opinion admits that condi-
tions have been drifting toward civil
war.
Field Marshal Sir Henry Wilson has
carte blanche and $l0,00O000 with
which to try to restore order in
the north, but his appointment as
commander in chief in the north
is hardly likely to calm the Ma
tionalists and Sim Feiners either in
Ulster or south of the border
The Genoa conference has become a
secondary consideration with Premier
nfip ely