New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
By William Whittam

ITEW. even among the well in
formed. realize what a deter
mining element cotton has
been in the weaving Of the compli-
Gated texture OF American industrial
growth. Il has been and continues
10 be the selvage, keeping the ex-
tending fabric from unraveling,
while adding strength 10 the whole.
For, during the half-eentury follow
inE the Civil War, the United States
exports OF raw cotton amounted 20
more than thirteen and half bill
liion dollars. while the total balance
Of trade" reached was rather less
than ten and a half billions, so that
the fiber has been the ballast Of
American international finance. In
tho field Of world cotton production
we have always dominated, but OF
late our commanding influence has
been slipping away.
A year ago the world had 10 increase
It's 1921 takings OF commercial cotton
OF all growths BY something like full
hall before Il could reach the pre.war
standard Of consumption when this
Is considered In conjunction with tho
/ fact that IL the human race had been
permitted TO 20 on It's orderly way since
1914 there would have been added By
now 10 the normal annual cotton needs
something like n million bales. one gets
picture OF the lost ground TO be re-
gained. There has been q partial ro.
oovcTy during 1922.
Il is, however, alarming 10 find that
even with tho falling OF in pre-war con-
sumption there are nov five bales Of
cotton being used for each four bales
! being grown. During the year, part
time working in some domestic mills
has been about balanced by overtime
! operations in others, and there r. a
rather we'll justified opinion that the
hhnd-to-mouth timidity Of the past has
given place 20 a greater confidence, eX-
pressed. and 90 be further represented,
/ BY more liberal factory purchases.
Spinners generally seem TO have de-
cded that there is little hope Of cotton
being obtainable Al less than current
prices and that there Is more than n
/ sporting chance Of the average for the
season being higher than the December
average. The las, few weeks has shown
/ two remarkable and somewhat unproc-
I dented departures from the usual. First,
/ the absence Of the customary "autumnal
, dip" and considerably larger crop
I than the preceding one selling az as
I tonishinsiy higher prices.
/ The disastrous crop OF last year aside,
the one Just picked, though a million
bales larger. is the smallest In two
/ decades, yet II bids fair 20 fetch the
largest sum ever received for an
American cotton crop. From the stand
/ point OF the user OF cotton goods the
supply. and demand position is my
thing but reassuring. The tAkings Of
the trade are already ahead OF last year,
while domestic consumption in Novcm-
Der was the largest since 1917. Ex.
ports from August / to the beginning
OF December were greater than during
any similar period in the last four
years, and 77i.o 900 bales more than tho
average during that period.
10 Is also significant 20 note that
from August 20 December % this year.
while port receipts were higher than
Ia 1921, port stocks were loeer, as
were interior receipts and interior
stocks. A. the latter date the worlds
visible supply OF American cotton was
$4,000 bales less than a. the CORE
spending date Of 1921. II the demand
continues on anything like tho present
basis the earry-over will be swept
away and the trade put on an absolute
hand-to-mouth basis. with all the dis
aEtrous consequences such Sn uncer-
/ tain condition Of affairs would in
! -. LIE