The New York herald., 1922-11-03
MILLER MEN CERTAll,
Smith WILL RUN FAR
BEHIND HYLAN VOTE
Figure 295,000 Majority i'll
City Is Most That 'Al'
Can Expect.
CONFIDENT UP STATE
Sure Governor VIII Come
Near $4,000 Polled Two
Years Ago.
REAL EVEN MONEY BET
Analysis with Gas Squeezed
Out of the Fight Shows
Nominees Oh Par.
REAL EVEN MONEY BET
ny LOUIS sEIBoLD.

Every Democratic prediction, sign.
portent "conhdentlal' poll, clairvoy-
ant guess and argument Is based on
the assumption that Gov. Miller Will
not receive next Tuesday as many
votes in the city of New York as Re-
publican candidate Curran polled last
year and that AL Smith will get as
many votes as Mayor Hylan received
in the same contest
AS a matter of fact, the supporters
of Mr.. Smith who are convinced that
he will win the battle between the Re-
publican and Democratic parties for
the control of the State assert that
Mr.. Miller is a weaker candidate
than was Mr.. Curran and that Mr..
Smith is stronger candidate than
dented majority.
In distributing the 10000 votes
which will probably be cast in the five
boroughs OF New York next week the
experts who are betting some money
and much conversation OH the result
have convinced themselves that Mr..
Smith will get more than the 10000
votes received by Mr. Hylan and that
Mr.. Miller will fail TO pole more than
$4,000 given Mr. Curran.
Democratic calculations ignore tho
Socialists on the theory, that most OF
the followers of that party will vote
for the Democratic candidate. In the
Mayoralty contest Pankin, the Social
ist candidate, received around 81, 200.
Vote Two Years Ago.
Tammany leaders think that they
are fully justified IN claiming that Mr..
Smith will top the Hylan majority by
enough TO yield round 100000 to off,
set the upstate vote for Mr.. Miller,
which conservative Republicans esti-
mate will range between 100000 and
$4,000. Two years ago Mr.. Smith
rolled up a majority Of $4,000 in tho
city Of New York. Mr.. Miller met it
with $4,000, which gave him a plural
ity over all Of 10000. In the last on
year" contest four years ago between
Mr.. Whitman and Mr.. Smith tho
Democratic candidate won by 1870.
including the soldie. vote which finally
determined the result.
In all OF their calculations Repub-
licans ms well as Democrats attach "A
great deal OF importance to the last
two votes recorded in New York city.
Republicans argue that because Presi-
dent Harding carried the city of New
York by $4,000 Gov. Miller should
hold on TO enough IF II to enable him
10 prevent his Democratic rival from
carrying the big town by more than
zoe, 900.
Democratic enthusiasts are equally
confident that Smith will not only poll
the Az 1000 majority won by Mayor
Hylan but that he will beat IL by sew
eral thousands The less emotional
leaders and bettor9 on both sides arc
inclined 10 set aside as wholly ex-
travagant and illogical the claims OF
both the Republicans and Democrats
in this respect on the ground that the
conditions that prevail this year are
dissimllar TO those which existed In
the other campaigns.
In the contest between Mr.. Milie-
and Mr.. Smith two years ago when
conditions were admittedly abnormal
in a political sense the vote OF the city
was as follows: