The Topeka state journal., 1922-07-05
Seven Lean Years Nothing
Much to FOresteIl Nowadays.
Smithsonian Institution Hopes
to Forecast More Than That.
WEATHER "CIRCLE" is aim
When This Is Completed Doubt
About Seasons Leaves.
Fat and Lean Years Then Will
Be Charted Out Easily.

Washington, July 5.-Joseph. the
1ong-famed weather prophet of the
Bible. who foretold the seven lean
years and the following seven years
OF plenty. may one day be shown up
as a piker by modern weather fore
casters. when solar observations be-
ing conducted by the Smithsonian In
stitution are completed, it Is indicated.
Dr. Q. G. Abbot, assistant secretary
of the institution. describing the in
stitution's worldwide studies of the
variation of the heat of the sun, in
the annual report lately made public,
declares that such compilations are
already being used by two south
American countries as an aid to
weather forecasting. The institutions
researches, which are considered OF
great scientific importance, are be-
ing closely followed by scientists all
over the world. and may make long
time prognostications "a usual and
simple part of weather mapping.
SUMS Heat Varies.
After many years close observation
and measurement Of the heat radia-
tion from the sun, scientists believe
they are now near the goal. 1t has
been finally determined that the sun
does not throw off a continuous
amount of heat, from year to year,
from month to month and even from
day to day; that neither does the
earth receive a constant amount of
solar heat; that these variations are
periodic and regular according to sew
eral factors, primarily the suns rota-
ton; and that there is a direct con-
nection with the solar variation and
the earth's climate.
The institution, Doctor Abbot said,
has set up apparatus for heat meas
Urfng at various stations around the
world, from which have been COM
puted endless tables of figures by
which the measurements showing
solar variations have been checked
and proved.
While this work Is still going on
with the view OF co-ordinating the
measurements with earthly weather
solar constant or radiation are be-
ing furnished from the institutions
station on Mount Montezuma, Chile, to
the government bureaus of Argentina
and Brazil, where they are used reg
ularly in forecasts Our own weather
bureau, DR.. Abbot added, is investi-
eating the relations of the more COM
plicated weather conditions of the
United States to the radiation of the
sun, ana with results which tend to
raise the hope that here too the solar
radiation values will be of interest and
importance in weather forecasting.
Probably Not Losing Heat
The interesting question has often
been brought up, according to the
article, as to whether the sun may
be gradually losing its heat and de-
cIIning toward a cold, dead condition.
However, he said, 1t is impossible to
answer the question other than to re-
fer to the fact that crops raised in
the most ancient OF historic times
were substantially the same as those
grown at present, so that there has
at least been little decline within the
last 5000 years. With the aid of the
institutions studies, which fix the
measurements within an error of only
one per cent, scientics 1000 years from
now may be able to answer the uues-
tion without doubt.
When the hypothesis OF the suns
variations was first being worked out,
was used to check the observations
Using q photo-electric cell, DR.. Guth-
nick, of the Berlin observatory, meas
ured the brightness of the planet Sat
urn as compared with the star Regulus
AS Saturn shines with the reflected
must vary IL the sun does.
L Dissertations Do Not Agree.
These observations were compared
with the studies of the suns bright
ness as made by the Smithsonian in
gtituton but tthe tables did not agree.
altho both showed somewhat similar
fluctuations over period Of several
months.
The comparison, however was made
on the assumption of changes on the
sun being felt in all directions stimuli
faneously, DR.. Abbot said.
When allowance was made for the
rotation OF the suns disc, which is
about 27 days, and for the fact that
the rays which reached the earth
might sweep around one, two or three
days before or after reaching Saturn,
III was found that the latter was the
true case, and the fluctuations accord
@d exactly.