davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
HARVARD EXTENDS
TRADE FORECAST
Economists Devise Method of
Predicting Industrial
Production.

CAMBRrpop. Mass, April S.-The fore
casting or business conditions which has
heen done for more than two years by
the Harvard Economic Service, operated
by Harvard University under the direc-
ton of a group of business men ana
investigators known as the committee on
economic research, is being supple
nented by study Of the fluctuations
OF industrial production.
The Harvard economists have devised
method of constructing statistically
an index of the volume OF production
similar to their present index OF prices.
1t Is stated at the university that while
this new method is still being tested
and refined, the evidence to date would
seem to indicate that 1t Is reliable and
will lend additional support to the fore
cast of business conditions issued by
the service.
A number of trained economists are
giving all or part OF their time to the
preparation Of material for the economic
service, each man being selected for his
specific knowledge of some special field
such as foreign trade. security issues,
the domestic money market or whole
sale commodity prices.
The service had its origin in an ex-
haustive study OF business statistics
made at Harvard in 1917 and 1918 for
the purpose of developing a reliable in
dex of business conditions. The method
developed was based on the accumula-
tion of statistics showing speculative
activity. based on New York city bank
clearings and prices of securities. aver
aged: wholesale prices and business
activity, based on wholesale commodity
prices bank clearings outside New York
city, and pig iron production, averaged.
and the conditions of the money market,
based on interest rates on commercial
paper, averaged.
1t was found that if the movement of
these three things were indicated by
curves plotted on chart. there was a
logical relationship between these
curves. Every turn in the curve repre-
senting speculation preceded a similar
turn in the curve representing business
by an interval of some eight or ten
months. and a turn in the curve repre-
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
JOHN L. GOING TO SHRINE
OF FIRST CIRCUS ELEPHANT
Venerable Attraction in Big Shows Now Pensioned fol
Past Performances, Comes Back to Take Part in In
terestng Event Recalling the Original Betsy.

took her off his seafaring brothers
hands and. with the aid of couple of
farm hands drove her to his farm az
Somers. Westchester county.
On that farm the American circus
was born in 1921, with Betsy. to repeat.
Its sole animal attraction. In fact
Betsy was the whole show. There was
nothing to the circus but Betsy. Used
to charge folks money just to come into
the tent and look at Betsy. She did
nothing but stand there blinking her
little eyes and twisting her trunk.
In time Betsy died and a granite
shaft on a double base was raised TO
mark the spot where she used to prove
to the unbelieving that there was such
an animal after all. The monument
stands in triangle of grass In front OF
the tavern and surmounting the shaft,
which is fifteen feet high, there Is
wooden image of Betsy. Below there Is
a tablet reciting the fact that Betsy
died In 1927 and necessarily omitting
the wealth of circumstance attending
her demise, which takes up whole
chapter in the book.
For us coddled humans who ny hitner
and yon in motor cars. Somers Is no DIS
tance away at all. 1t is but b3.7 miles by
the best roads. according to the guioe
books But for old JOnH, WHoSc Acts o. =
not what they used to be and VINO creaks
a bit in the shoulders and hips these
days (they say he Is as old as Prod.
Dexter Fellowes), 1t will be quite a
jaunt. He is not going to hurry ne
will take all the time he needs-set the
pace and rest where he feels so incilneo.
Tonight he will go to bed In brox-
Vile. having finished about half tne
Journey. Tomorrow morning he VIII
take to the road again, gaining Somers
late in the afternoon. And there the ola
boy will walk up to Betsy's shrine, get
down on his ponderous knees and touch
the grass with his great brow.
OEi John starts at o'clock this AFTER
noon from Madison Square Gardene. Tne
route will take him up Fifth avenue ana
through Central Park to 10th street.
and then Seventh avenue to 145th street,
across the Harlem River to 149th street.
to Mott avenue, to Grand Boulevard. to
Mosholu Parkway. to Jerome avenue 70
Central avenue. to Yonkers avenue 70
Bronxville.
Tomorrow the pilgrimage continues
through Scarsdale Harts Corners, White
PlainsA Armonk, New Castle, Mount
Kisco, Bedford Hills Katonah, Golden
Bridge, Purdy and then-Somers.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
s,,,ea an. strs charles II cramp. New

Sailed 9th, strs Charles II Cramp. New
York; Simaloer Dutch, Batavia.
Sailed 7th, str Florence Luckenbach. Port
land, ore; u s transport Chateau Thierry.
New York.
Sailed sth. str Enterprise. Hilo.
Sailed Sth, str Edgar r Luckenbach, Port
land. Ore: motor ship Valparaiso tSw), Van
SAN PEDRO, Cal. April 7-Arrived. ctr
Willsolo San Francisco.
Sailed 9Th. strs Penrsylvanian. San Fran.
cisco: West Montop, do Tin tow OF tug
latter TO be tied up here by GovernmenD.
SAVANNAH. Ca. April s-Arriyed, strs
New York (and sailed for West CoasD .
Hoven, Port Arthur; city of Rome. Boston
Persian. Jacksonville fand sailed for Phila-
SAILED sth.. etrs skogheim (Nor).. Cape
c,raaias: CITY OF Columbus New York
TAMPA, Fla. April s+Arrived Arrive Ia str AL AL
duras. - -, q
Rockiand. Me, for New York; sth. schr
William Bisbee. New York for Maine port.
Paseed sth, AM, strs Arlington. west :
7:s0 AM. Penobscot. do.-Wind sW; fog.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
PACKERS PLAN STOCK CUT.

CHICAGO. April S--A special meeting
or the stockholders of Libby, ,McNeill
q Libby, packers, was called to-day
to meet on April IS for reducing its
capital stock from S-7,000,000 to S.
100000 in view OF an operating loss OF
$22,00O,000 in the last year.
Under the proposed reorganization
it is planned to give the shareholder.
a share of stock for four held, thus
canceling 2,625.000 shares Of outstand-
ing stock.
The statement announcing the meet
ing said that the last year had been
exceedingly hard on the company be-
cause of general business depression.
and that the loss for the year ended
with March was $72.42S.76s.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
LEVIATHAN STARTS
DOWN BAY AT DAWN
Capt. Bernard Takes Advan-
tage Of High Tide for Run to
Newport News.

With steam UP In the engines of the
Leviathan, the great ship was ready to
back out into the Hudson River this
morning at o'clock, half an hour be-
fore sunrise, for her first trip in several
years.
Newport News to be refitted and made
the most luxurious ship afloat. The
seven hundred of her crew and Capt.
w. j. Bernard. marine superintendent
of the Army Transport Service, the skip
per, are confident that the trip can be
made without mishap despite the long
time in which the vessel has been laid
UP and the ticklish plotting that will be
required to take her to Newport News.
Capt. Bernard hoped to have the ship
turned around and headed southwark
IN the river by high tide. 5 40 A. M.
Five tugs were assigned to assist in
the turning operations, which, because
of her $50 feet of length. are generally
slow and difficult.
In Washington. William f. Gibbs.
former chief constructor of the Inter-
national Mercantile Marine. who Is in
charge OF the ship, announced that un-
usual precautions had been taken to In
sure the safety of the liner. suitable
berth at the Newport News plant has
been dredged, and a special examination
mas Deen maze OF the lHllHuie tohodiS
and Newport News channels through
which the great ship must pass. The
passage will be attempted only under
most favorable conditions, and should
the vessel be compelled to anchor the
Navy Department has provided sixteen
anchors weighing from seven to eight
and a half tons each and special moor
ing to hold her.
The ship is expected to make the 27l
miles from Sandy Hook to Cape Henry
in eighteen hours at a speed of fifteen
knots.
From Newport News word came that
Capt. d. L. A. Deotte. captain or the
port. has issued orders that smaller
vessels must not use the channel from
the time the Leviathan passes in Cape
Henry until she is docked at Newport
News. The coast guard cutter Manning.
two coast guard tugs. and a launch
will patrol the channel Capt. James
r. Peak, OF the Virginia Pilot Associa-
ton, will have nothing to worry him
but the depth of water under his great
charge.
-Four powerful tugs will meet the in
coming ship at Old Point and VIII put
their lines on her for the passage OF
the Newport News Channel.
The American Marine Insurance Syn
dicates, organized more than year
ago to create an American marine IN
surance market capable of insuring up
to 81 900 on a single American ocean
going h7Ill, have accepted on the ship
for the trip to Newport News an in
surance of 100000 and of s25O,Ooo
while she is under repairs.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09

Forty years ago, when circuses were
but a mere hint of what they are to-
day. half the fun of going to the Adam
Forepaugh show was In seeing John L.
Sullivan, the elephant. rear himself to
his hind feet and wallop everything
within reach with the boxing glove tied
to the tip of his trunk. John L.. the
elephant. was In his prime then. His
present age is problematical. but he Is
venerable, to put it conservatively-
When time slowed the old boy and he
began losing his looks, he was rele-
gated to the menagerie. Presently that
was too much for his aging limbs and
John L. was set back another step. He
became a mere working elephant, one of
the big boys that shove circus wagons
around the lot and uproot trees or
move houses as the requirements may
be. During the last few years the
Ringing Brothers have been leaving old
John behind In winter quarters ir-
Bridgeport when the circus Jared forth
in the spring. In other words, John
was on a pension. He had served CRATE
full masters. 1t was up to John to live
the rest of his life in comparative peace
and ease.
or course the old boys pride suffered
a bit every time the younger elephants
sailed forth for the season. You could
tell that by his trumpetings and the
hang of his head. So. If an elephant
could talk in a manner that we arro-
CANT mortals could understand. we
would know from old John himself just
how he feels to-day.
John arrived in New York last night
in a special box car we'll padded with
straw. To-day he will be decorated
with flowers. A band will serenade him.
The other elephants in the Ringing
Circus will pass in review before his
dim eyes. He will be fed magnificently
and a great reception call be given 20
him by the human personnel of the circus.
And then he will start on remarkable
pilgrimage-a sedate walk to the shrine
of the first elephant TO set foot upon
American soil.
The shrine that will be old Johns
goal Is more than monument to that
first elephant; 1t marks the site Of the
first circus that America ever beheld.
1t wasn't much of circus. to be sure
just one elephant and old Hackaliah
Bailey, forebear of the famous Baileys
of show renown. That one elephant
the first to be seen in America-bore
the name of Betsy and she came to
America in Hackaliah Bailey's brothers
sailing ship In 1914. Hackaliah Bailey
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
LINER FRANCE HERE
AFTER LONG LAYUP
Madeover Steamship Brings
Widely Known Folk in
First Cabins.

For the first time in five months the
French liner France reached this port
yesterday, bringing with her 1oS first
class passengers from Havre. nintey in
the second class and sixty-two In the
steerage. During her absence extensive
alterations have been made In first class
accommodations.
On board was Nazaire Cardinal Begin
Archbishop OF Quebec. who, despite his
eighty three years. made the trip to
Rome to take part In the election and
installation of Pope Plus XI. He ar
rived too late to take part In the bal
1oting, but met the new Pontiff and
brought back his Holliness's blessing fol
the people of Canada.
Cardinal Begin was accompanied by
Canor Jean Laberg. chancellor or the
archdiocese. They we're met by tho Rev
Father Alphonse Pelletier, Superior OF
the Fathers of the Blessed Sacrament
Lexington avenue and Seventy sixth
street. They depart for Quebec to-day
Lajos yaczek, chief secretary of the
Austro- Hungarian Consulate in New
York from 1907 to 1917. arrived with his
wife and two children to reopen the con-
sulate. now of Hungary only. He said
Hungary was stripped of raw materials
and OF machinery and had an uphill road
to travel
Also on the ship were Cavalier Ri
cardo Pizzi of the Banca di Italia di
Credito e valori of Rome, who comes to
develop exchange banking between Ital-
ian immigrants here and their home
land: Mrs. Arthur Il. Henderson. wife OF
the general passenger director of the
French Line. and her son. A. T. Hender.
son, Jr.; Mr.. and Mrs. J. A. M. Char
bonneau. II. "A. Cardozo, Miss Anderson
Davis and Thomas and Valentino
A griirre
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
senting money rates Followed from twc

senting money rates followed from two
to eight months later.
In spite of the great economic dis
turbance and uncertainty which have
prevailed since the armistice the cur
rent index has demonstrated In most
practical and reassuring manner it's re-
liability as long range forecaster of
prospective market conditions said a
statement issued by the office OF the
service.
1T forecast the acute depression of
1920 by fully six months. In October.
1920. it forecast that the trough of the
depression would be reached by May.
1921 and the facts again confirmed the
icrecasts. Is It going too far to prediSt
that the forecasting of business condi-
tion5 by scientific and public methods
may possibly tend to have stabilizing
influence on business by checking USE
less expansion and giving warning OF
approaching depressions and thus lessen
the acuteness of business crises?"
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
Army Orders
Special Dispatch to The NEW YoRK HERALD
New York Herald Bureau.

Washington. ID. O.. April y.
These army orders we're madc public to-
day:
ADJUTANT- GENERALS DEPARTMENT.
Hamilton. Lieutenant-Colonel Wesley w.
X, to San Francisco.
COAST ARTILLERY.
Kennedy, Major Beton o.. to Washington.
Chaplin, Capt Robert T.. 70 Fort Morgan.
Appiewhfte, First Lieut.. Powell p, to Gov
ernors Island
Paterson. First Lieut.. Coy r.. to Fort
Banancns.
FIELD ARTILLERY.
Frankenbcrger, Major Samuel. TO Camp
Lewis.
FINANCE DEPARTMENT.
Taylor, Major James Gilbert. to Washing
ton.
GENERAL STAFF.
TIumbold. Col. Frank NJ, TO washington.
INFANTRY.
vinson, Capt. Frederick M, TO Fort Sam
Houston.
MEDICAL CORPS.
Cutler. Lieutenant Colonel Robert NJ, TO
his home.
Rich. Lieutenant Colonel Edwin W.. TO
Governors Island.
Turkey, Major w. H., 20 Washington.
Wilcox. Capt. Clark A., TO Denver.
QUARTERMASTERs.
Van Dcusen, Capt. Edwin s., to Camp
Holabird
VETERINARY CORPS.
Smock. First Lieut.. Stanley c.. 20 Fort
Bliss.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
Arrivals at and Departures from
Foreign Ports.

ADELAIDE. April 6--Anived. str Port
Lyttletoa lBr) New ,atapa aSrH; eBr,. San Fran
ALEXANDRIA,. April e-ATrivcd. str West
aasHWUcKLANp. April 7-Arrived. str Nj
agara (Br), Vancouver.
MONMOUTH, April 7-Arrived. ctr Sara
mac (Br). New York.
Sailed tn, strs Litiopa 60, Key West;
BANEs. April 7-sailed. str Levisa. Bos-
BATAVIA. April 5--sailed. str Half Moon.
BERGEN. Aprn c-Arrived. str Tyrifiord
'Bo1eCAs. April ARRIVED. str Psrismina,
'isTSPDs nugNos AIRES. April 7-sailed. str
cARDENAs. April Q. PM-sailed. str Ge-
zion (Nor). Philadelphia:
cARTAGENA. April 7--Arrived. str Meta
pan. cristobai-
CHRIsTIANIA. April 3--Arrived, strs OF
Sailed 7th. str Heliig olay Cpan). New
York.
crENFUEGos. April 5. 4:so PM-sailed.
st- CaIlabasas. Guayabal. &c.
CLYDE. April 6-Sailed. str Cleric (Bri,
Texas.
COPENHAGEN. April 5--Arrived, str East
ern Temple. Baltimore.
cRIsToBAL. April 7--Arrivcd strs Moor
dsrdyk Dutch, san Francisco for Ant. Ant
taiamares. New York via Havana
Sailed Tth. strs Eastern Moon from Mel
&c pTiNpEE eoTnSi .9s April u sailed, str Norfolk
Range fBr). Philadelphia.
Il, GLASGOW April 1--sailcd, ctr West Ar
c;oTHENBURG. April 3--Arrived. str
America (Nor). New Orleans.
GRIMsBY. April 7-sailed. str Federal.
TAMBuRG. Aprn ARRIVED. str Haver-
ford (Br). New York.
Arrived 5th. str Hawaiian, Boston. &c.
Ns Sailed d'is isl. STR orcTonian. New York. Phil
sdelphia and Baltimore
Sailed 4th. strs Joseph Secp. New York;
In : port stu. str Resclute, for New York
~ VHoNG sSt KoSG. Aprii 2--Arrivcd. str Bowes
KfNcsToN, ia. April ). PM--sailed str
iiR,tgB xoBE. April 2-Arrrvcd. s,rs ceicbes
hfaru (Jap). Galveston; 30, Ayaha Maru
I tJap). vancouver an Csnadian Inventor
ei9coi Srrived an. etrs Honolulu Maru dap.
New. York via savannah; Iliieooet lputch)'
Arrived eth. Sir Gaelic Prince CBr. Balti-
sailed I'd. str Edmorc. Seattle.
LAGOS. April C--Arrived. str Boutry tBr).
LfBAu, April i--Arrivcd. strs Eastern
star, New York; %, kronoorg tDan, Balti-
LISBON. April 2-Arrivcd, str cardonia.
Galveston.
LIVERPOOL. April ARRIVED, str Cana
dian Trooper (Br). 81 John. NIB.
sailed Sfh str Cedric (Brl, New York.
LONDON. April 7--sailed. str Canadian
coaster tTr, fIaiifaS.
sailed 9th. ctr Panaman. Hamburg (slso
reported for New York;.
Sailed sth. str Montauk. New York,
Sailed Sth str Nasconia CBr). New York;
Arrived SIN. str Centennial State, New
York
ehfmedca CBrD. New York.
MANZANfL1O. April ARRIVED. str Tune
fNor), Curacao
tfr) Portland, Ore
Asrived 3ist, str kifuku Maru (Jap), Cal
Sailed "a. ctr suck Maru Jsp. van
r1uvor.
Naples. April s-salcd. str Arabic Chr,
New York.
NYBoRG. April a-Arrivod. str Cargoyie,
I,hilslelphia.
orJtsaa. March 2o-Arrived. str Jacons.
I New York.
J PASSAGES. April 2-salled. str Ohio G'r).
4 New Tc-k.
! rIRAErs. Harcn 2s-saned. str Macorls
DOM, Savannah.
\ PORr NATAL. April T--Arrived, str Baron
Minto fflrl. Port Arthur.
PORT rfRfg. April g-Arrivcd, str Tre-
Ecrian (Br), Galveston.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
SINGERS TO RADIO FROM
PLANES TO AID HEROES

Lieutenant Maynard. the Flying Par
son." intends to make daily flights over
this city and up State In behalf OF the
drive for s2.5o0.OoO which the American
Legion is conducting for camp in the
Adirondacks for wounded veterans.
This was learned yesterday from enrS-
neers of the General Electric Company.
who are equipping a five passenger FOX
ker monoplane at Mineola with wire-
less sending set. Several flights will be-
made at night. as amateur radio opera
tors will then have more time to listen
in"
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
STEPHEN r. TOBIN BUYS
L. A. THOMPSON ESTATE

The Glen Cove country estate OF the
late L. A. Thompson. scenic railway
genius. was sold at auction yesterday
afternoon to Stephen r. Tobin. who bid
S70,500 Arthur c. Sheridan Of 152 Broad
way was the auctioneer. The only other
bidder was T. b. Rousdell of Glen Cove,
brpther-in-law of Mrs. Thompson.
Although Mr.. Tobin declined to make
any statement concerning his purchase
1t was understood after the auction that
he was acting as agent for a man prom
inent In New York political life. Former
Sheriff David Fl. Knott purchased an
adjoining estate several months ago.
The Thompson estate includes a tract of
twenty-nine acres on which are large
Colonial house, two cottages, green
house. garage and barns. 1t has been
valued at S150.00O.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
Dangers to Navigation.

The photographic Office advises all trans
atlantic shipping to adopt on April east
hound track crossing LAT 3S 80 n, lon AZ w.
on April Is adopt westbound track. crossing
lat 40 80 n. Ion Al w.
TReported to the Photographic Office.1
April 6, about miles Sc of Boston light
xoseel. In approximately lat AZ 10, lon
10 40, black spar buoy.
DISTINCTIONS Destroyed-April the Y 5
Coast Guard cutter Gresham reported de-
etroying sunken barge in lat 40, lon "a,
leaving a least depth of water OF ia
fAthoms.
Ice patrol cutter Tampa reports as fol-
lows April 8. Tampa's position lat AZ ~,
lon 90 4S no ice reported last "a hours
searching northward of 4od parallel; handi-
capped by continuous northerly gales and low
visibility since April black whistling buoy
lat 40 &c, lon so So.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
FOREIGN PORTS.
IBy Mail.I

APPLE RIVER, Ms. March 3o-Arrived.
schr Cape Blomidon tBr). Parrsboro (to load
for Boston,.
DEMERARA, April f--Arrived previously.
schr Tower (Br), Jacksonville.
DIGBY. Ms, April 5--Sailed, schr Truro
Queen (Br), New York.
HALIFAX, Ms. April 6-Arrived. str Lin
gan (Br), st John.
LA HAVE. Ms. April 5-In port. schr
James William (Br), for Sheburne Ito load
for New York;.
LIVERPOOL. Ms. April 6-sailed. schr
VIM Melbourne (Brl, New. York.
LUNENBURG, Ms, April ARRIVED, schrs
Frances Louise (Br). Turks Island via Liver
pool, Ms: Daniel Getson (Br). La Have.
Sailed 4th, schr Cape La Have (Br). Liv-
erpool. Ms, and New York.
TURKS ISLAND. prior to March 27-Ar-
rived. schr Cumberland Queen (Br). New
Orleans Ito load salt for New York;.
Sailed April 4. schr Lucille 3 Creaser
(Br), Lunenburg.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
Navy Orders
specioI Dispatch to THE NEW YORK HERALD
New York Herald Bureau,
Washington. ID. G.. April 3. \

,rbsse ma val orders have been made public
Alien. Lieutenant Commander Abraham H..
to Haiti.
sellers. Lieutenant Commander Frank E..
TO u. S. S. Relief.
T. II.
wurtsbaugh, Capt. Daniel W.. to Pacific
fleet.
rockwell, Lieut.. Clarence r.. 10 Thirteenth
Naval district.
Chicago.
Hart, Lieut.. John r.. to n. s. San Fran
cisco.
Peluso, Lieut.. Joseph D., 10 New York.
Terry, Lieut.. Jack s., TO San Francisco.
Calhart, Lieut.. Everett L.. to Washington.
Baeberie, Lieut.. Frederick r., to WASH
ington.
Sullivan, Lieut.. William A., 20 New York.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
SPARTANBURG MEN TO MEET.
Third Omcers school Graduates to
Organize Here.

Graduates of the Third Officers Train
ing School, Camp Wadsworth. Spartan
burg. S. c., will meet here on April Il
to form a permanent social organization,
More than 500 graduates have been called
to the meeting by Col. William 7,
Taylor, who was the commandant Of the
Third School and commanded the 106th
Infantry of the Twenty-seventh Divi-
sion. The students were recruited from
various units of the Twenty-seventh
Division. April 10 will be the fourth
anniversary of their graduation.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
SALES BY AUCTION.
RETIRING FROM BUSINESS
OLD WORLD ARTS, Inc.
eco Sfb Avsn.Ye NJ "
669 5th Avenue, N. Y.

will dispose Of their entire stock. con-
sisting Of old silver, real antiques,
carved iyories. singing birds, Copen-
hagen porcelain, modern and ancient
paintings, antique reproductions,
tapestry covered chairs and inlaid fur
niture and table lamps, silver ships,
wrought iron chandeliers with ship
models, ieweIed clocks, enamel ciga-
rette cases, rock crystal Jade and lapls
ornaments, bronzes with carved ivory,
fancy and illuminated leather goods
and the finest collection Of old and new
ship models, ETC., etc., ETC.. ever Of
fered to the Public at PUBLIC AUC-
TI0N beginning Thursday, April 18th,
at 2:15. p. M. daily. Sale conducted
by Felix A. Wiener, Auctioneer.
The New York herald., 1922-04-09
PASSENGER STEAMERS SAILED.

CEDRIC (Br). from Liverpool sth for New
York.
HELLO 'oLAv CDan). from christiania
eth for New York.
TAHITI (Br). from Sydney. Nsw, for San
Francisco.