The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1922-07-19
THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK

THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK
Reports from commercial agencies
and numerous other sources all tend
to show that despite the strikes bust
ness is forging ahead at a rate unusual
for this time of year. The Harvard
Bureau of Economic Research reports
that business sis now well advanced
in the phase of the economic cycle
known as recovery" and predicts that
the recovery now in progress will de-
velop into general business pros
rerity." This is forecast, says Henry
Clews, which is amply sustained by
the steadily increasing demand. and
the larger output, as well as by better
prices in many staple lines.
Bradstreet's says: Apart from the
industrial unrest. the situation at the
turn of the year has rarely shown
so many favorable features so soon
after a great depression. Crop pros
poets, owing to copious rains, are bet
ter than year ago, yields of all food
products are almost sure to be larger
than in 1921, building activities are
at an unprecedented rate, the auto
mobile trade is at full capacity, the
lumber, cement. brick, furniture
manufacturing and fruit and vegeta-
BILE canning trades are fully employed,
unemployment seems practically neg
ligible, and commodity prices have
lost little of the high degree of firm
ness reflected in the index number as
of July 1.
No great spirit of optimism pre-
walls turnout the country such as one
might expect, in view of the signs of
business revival, says the Bache Re-
view, adding that these signs, how
ever. are persistent. The Review con-
tinues:
Bank clearings, which are basically
an index of volume of business, show,
for the month of June, an increase of
40 per cent over May, and of 1873
year ago. These figures for June are
the largest months total since Decem-
Der. 1920, when the business of the
country was boiling over with infla-
ton.
Freight car-loadings have shown
continuous gain with the exception of
the last week reported, which ended
July 1, and which showed a slight de-
crease of $50 cars from the week be-
fore. Since the first week in January
cars. which is close to so per cent
greater than in January. This in
crease has taken place notwithstand
ing the cessation OF large part of the
coal traffic, due to the coal strike.
In addition to the evidence of the
rising business tide, as shown in bank
clearings and car-loadfngs, the ac-
tivity in building construction is pro-
nounced. This latter has been forced
by sheer necessity-the scarcity OF
roofs over the heads of the people. a
scarcity caused by cessation of build
in during the war. accompanied by
incessant increase in population-to
a point where the situation became
an emergency. And emergency prices
are being charged for building ma
terialS of all kinds and ror labor, the
wages for which in this line are dis
tressingly high.
Nevertheless, with the circum-
stances OF price levels all awry, there
is, as has been said. a vast amount
of activity in building. So that in the
forces which are at present making
for business activity, emergency is
playing a large part. For instance.
the pressure Aof volume of freight al
ready1noving, and constantly growing,
with an outlook for still heavier oper-
alton in the fall, has made it impera-
tive for the railroads to order new
equipment. Last week 5000 more
freight cars were bought by the roads,
making total of nearly 100. 900 since
the six months average of car-order-
ing for the ten years before the war.
1t represents a rate of buying nearly
three times that of the last five years.
1t Is estimated in the trade, that sew
eral million tons of steel will be needed
to build the cars and locomotives the
roads must have, to put their systems
in good shape. to say nothing of rails
spikes. bridge material and other steel
supplies.
Purchasing by railroads has always
been one of the most important fac
tors in bringing about prosperity, as
1t produces activity thruout a con-
stantly widening line or related in
dustries.
The roads are being crowded into
purchasing by the pressure of rising
freight volume. Building construction
is being forced into action by the pres
sure of increasing housing needs. If
the men, numbering approximately L.
100000, who are voluntarily idle.
would go to work, they ana everybody
else would share in the general pros
perity that would follow.
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Germany, it seems, never recedes
from her long established habit of
blufting. Early in the month it was