Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1922-08-15

For the present time we think the
course Of cotton prices will be down
ward, especially as we are informed
that the demand for finished prod
ucts from the mills is not very
keen and the demand from the spin
ners for raw cotton continues on
hand-to-mouth basis. The time is
approaching when the weight of the
movement Of actual bales to mar
ket must be met. If there is to be
a scarcity in cotton, or If consump-
ton is to be less than production,
these facts will be understood with
more accuracy later in the year.
Cotton may or may not go up as
the season progresses, but at the
present time the weight of the evil
dence seems to us to be in favor
Of lower prices.
Whether lower prices are to be
temporary or permanent, depends
upon future developments, both of
supply and Of demand, but we are
not looking forward to any cheap
cotton, that is to say, cheap COM
pared with previous peace time
years. If we can raise a cotton
crop of approximately 100000
bales and get therefor IL or Is cents
pound, at the plantation, we be-
lieve the south will make fair
reasonable profit on its crop and
enjoy unusual prosperity.
Hayden, Stone & Co.. New York
City: Our advices indicate the cot
ton crop as whole has made sat-
isfactory progress, and present in
dications point to a total crop Of
around 100000 bales. This fig
ure can be materially augmented or
decreased by the character Of the
weather for the next six weeks, also
date of killing frost. According to
Mr.. Hester, the worlds carry-over
Of American cotton August first was
100000 bales. The probable price
range for 1929 will be dependent
entirely upon size Of crop and the
worlds economic conditions. At
around these levels and under IA
vorable conditions the probable con-
sumption will exceed 100000. OF
course prices in the immediate flu
ture will depend on the weather, set
tlement of the strike and develop
ments in the foreign situation, but
with freer movement Of new crop
Supp11CS, VIZ 1CI1lSI 'SApCCI a OSCll1-
ing tendency unless the growing
crop receives a severe setback.
James P. Ferrall, Cotton Depart
ment, j. S. Bache & Co., New York:
In my opinion the American cotton
crop at the present time, taken as
a whole, is in very critical condi-
ton, as it started out unhealthy and
was matured under adverse circum-
stances and now confronts the most
critical period of its life, as the next
thirty days can make or destroy it
insofar as an addition to the crop
from now on is considered. If we
have favorable weather for the plant
it also will be favorable weather for
the weevil, and that pest practically
covers the entire cotton belt. The
carry-over of merchantable cotton,
in my opinion, counting every bale
Of American cotton in the world and
excluding linters, is not exceeding
100000 bales.
At no time in the history of the
growth Of cotton has it been possible
for any one at this time to even APP
proximate the ultimate production
and now that we have the weevil it
has become increasingly difficult to
forecast the crop. The crop is not
yet made and might possibly be re.
duced 100000 bales from present
expectations during the next thirty
days, during which time it is hard
ly posSibH for it to be increased
100000 bales.
5e 10
pendent upon the ability of the
world to absorb things made of cot
ton. With cotton around 25 cents,
I believe the spintles of the world
will absorb 100000 bales under
present economic conditions. In my
opinion the trend Of the market is
dependent upon an orderly market
ing Of the raw material by the pro.
Queer, all of which is up to the man
who produces the cotton and his OBJ
legations to financial institutions
which made it possible for him to
carry on.
I think this crop has been planted
and cultivated with less help from
banks and supply merchants than
in any of the previous several years
which suggests that it has not been
properly cultivated and that the pro.
Queer is correspondingly under less
obligations and therefore more indie.
pendent. When the crop has gen
orally reached maturity and is ready
for the market, I think cotton will
so down unless the producers re-
fuse to offer their product in ex-
cess of the daily trade requirements
Compared to the cost of production.
considering the lessened yield per
acre, think cotton today at rs cents
per pound is cheaper than it was
twenty-five years ago at 5 cents per
c. P. Ellis, New Orleans: We do
not believe the growing crop plus the
carryover will be sufficient to pre-
vent a condition of acute scarcity
before the close of the season I'M
less In the meanwhile prices rise to
prohibitive point. Crops are deter
iorating both east and west of the
river because Of drouth, heat, worm
and weevil damage. The producer is
rendered Independent by reason of
the assured financial backing of the
government and the banks to CO.
operative marketing organizations
already formed and forming. We
think he consequently will be a very
Indifferent seller at anything under
20 cents. Meanwhile the American
contract markets are speculatively
largely short.
Noman Mayer & Co., New Orleans:
AS the crop situation stands at pres
ent, the total yield may be as large
as 100000 bales or as small as
100000 bales. The crop already
has begun to deteriorate, and with
rainy weather for the next several
weeks, the damage from the boil
weevil and cotton worm would re-
duce the yield materially. On the