The New York herald., 1922-09-04
SHIPPING FUTURE Is
GROWING BRIGHTER
Freight Ranging From Moder
ate to Heavy Moving in
Various Trades.

Although 1872 probably will be re-
membered as one of the worst years in
maritime history, several unexpected de-
velopments coming after the middle OF
the twelvemonth have mitigated what
otherwise might have been disastrous
time for many.
They have frightened the outlook
considerably. Operators of freight
shipping especially seem justified in be-
! lieving that the worst OF the slump is
passed.
A survey OF the ocean cargoe situa-
ton shows that, taking the amount of
shipping in service into consideration, a
quantity of freight ranging from mod
crate to heavy is moving in the Indian,
South American, South African. Far
East and coastwse and intercoastal
trades OF the United States. In these
trades. except where rate wars have
created Improbable operating condi-
tions temporarily. the ship owner is
usually able to earn fair return on
his efforts and investment.
From north to south Of Europe the
freight situation has been distinctly un-
favorable. especially with respect to
Germany and the nearby states, where
disorganized international politics and
exchange have had their inevitable re-
action upon trade. But even there the
outlook is Frightening daily. The solu-
tion of the reparations question should
be followed by stabilized exchange, 1t is
contended.
End OF Rate wars Seen.
There is further consideration that in
ward freight from Europe. In conse-
quence of the British coal shipments,
has been moving heavily for the first
time in recent years. The coal busi-
ness. coming Unexpectedly In the midst
of the Continental freight slump, has
proved veritable lifesaver to more
than one operator of transatlantic ship
ping. 1t is calculated at the rate OF Is
to II shillngs a ton. at which the car
goes now arriving were fixed. an econo-
mical ship can pay for its round voy-
age expenses with the coal receipts. 80
that anything taken for the outward
trip represents pure profit after the
bare costs of handling the cargo have
been covered.
The move toward stabilized rates
made by the Far East conference, whose
members, have contracted to maintain
tariffs under penalty of cash forfeits, Is
believed by many to mark the beginning
of the end to the rate wars which have
devastated shipping for more than a
year. The intercoastal rate war, prob
ably the bitterest struggle OF it's kind
that ever has been waged, is thought
to be entering its last stages. The more
optimistic see signs of peace on the
horizon.
Optimistic Over Subsidy.
Even the intercoastal war has its
bright side, however. With the lower
rates new sources of freight have been
tapped and new shippers won to the
water route. In consequences of this as
well as OF the comparatively brisk state
of domestic business. coastwise and
coast to coast shipments are heavy.
Full cargoes are being reflected I'm a
slight strengthening OF rates despite
the lack of conference control.
The Shipping Board has given en-
couraging evidence OF willingness to
withdraw from operation where it's SER
vice was patiently superfluous by taxi
ing its eight cargo ships off the Bremen
Hamburg berth. Private operators of
American shipping are most concerned
in this turn of the shipping situation.
From the purely American viewpoint.
the most favorable development is the
increasing probability that Congress
will pass the subsidy bill before the end
of the year. The prospects for the
legislation looked exceedingly dark
itOHlH OF tWO ago, DuL now observers
whose ears have been close to the
ground in Washington say the House
and Senate will return from an election
recess about the middle of September
and Immediately undertake considera-
tion of the compensation measure with
the definite purpose on the part of the
Administration leaders to bring about
early approval.
Operating Cost Unchanged.
Passenger shipping is not as strategf-
cally placed as freight shipping for an
upturn. Whereas the building OF cargo
carriers has been abandoned virtually
for over a year, except I'm Germany.
the construction and reconditioning OF
passenger types has gone on apace. An
extremely dull winter is being faced.
With the renewal of tourist travel next
spring much additional tonnage will be
placed in operation. including the $4,000
ton Leviathan. now being refitted by
the Shipping Board, the $4,000 ton Co.
lumbus of the North German Lloyd,
two $4,000 tonners Of the Hamburg
American Line and others nearly as
large by the White STAR Cunard and
Holland America lines
First and second class rates on the
basis of present travel and tonnage In
service are remunerative, but immigra-
tion restriction has dealt a heavy blow
at third class business. which formerly
was the backbone of the passenger
traffic Cabin rates. furthermore. are
more than 100 per cent. higher rhan
before the war; and have yet to be de.
flated in any degree. Whether the new
tonnage can be employed without a
stimulation TO travel In the form OF
lower fares is a moot question.
In the matter OF operating expenses.
passenger and freight vessels alike ar,
experiencing little change. None Is ex-
pected In the near future. Wages and
materials appear 10 have been stabilized
at the current level. Beyond a little
pruning here and there little can be
done TO bring downs costs any further