Great Falls tribune. [volume] (Great Falls, Mont.) 1921-current, 1922-11-05
BY STUART p. WEST
Correspondent Of Great Falls Trlbuns
1872. by Thk GreRt Falls TrihDna

snsoIal Correspondent Of Great Falls Trlbuns
Copyright. 1922. by The Great Fails Tribuns
New York, Nov. A week ago it
was said that the principal subject of
discussion in the Wall street situation
was whether the rapidly declining
stock market at that time was a mere
downward turn correcting a previous
over-speculation or whether it %portend-
ed a genuine change in sentiment re-
gardin&s the financial outlook. It was
plain enough to those familiar with the
market ways that the decline could be
accounted for perfectly well on the
ground of conditions on the stock ex-
change itself. That is to say, it had no
reference whatever to the situation in
finance and industry outside. But it
was not until the latter half of the past
week that proof was afforded which
was striking enough to satisfy the non
professional public. Then, without the
slightest development in the trade
news, without fresh stimulus from any
ether quarter, the market suddenly
turned about and rushed back over the
ground lost with the rapidity that it
had plunged downward.
F1diuS lHffuence WAR StFeet
1t is the accepted rule of the specu-
lative stock market to foreshadow
economic changes, and over the long
run 1t does perform this important
function. But of the market of the last
two months, 1t cannot be said that it
has been of the Leaf significance as q
barometer of business conditions.
Rather it has responded, as no other
market has done for years, to the
shifting operations of certain individual
and speculative groups-operations con-
Quoted with a holiness that has seldom
been equalled in Wall street history.
The decline in the last fortnight in
October was undoubtedly called for by
the e~xtravagances Of the midsummer
speculation. But after all, it was a
raid of the crudest sort, designed to
allow the dominant speculative inte-
rests to get back cheaply stocks which
they had been distributing a month or
accomplished the market r%ebounded
readily. and no further attempt was
made to read into the Wall street
movement anything unfavorable for the
general trade outlook.
Business Position Little Changed
The commercial position, as n matter
of fact, has altered virtually little
from what 1t was early in September.
Railway tonnage, as measured by the
weekly figures on ~carlOadings, has
closely appropriated the maximum of
all time. Herein lies the strongest
evidence of the activity Of trade
throughout the country.
Consumption Of goods Is back to
normal and production has followed.
IIow much profit is being made out Of
this very satisfactory business volume
Is another question. Results differ
widely as between individual industries.
Some have been more successful in
advancing prices and reducing costs
than others.
The line of business most favorably
situate in these respects can look
forward to a fairly prosperous year
in 1923. Those that are not SO well
off will have to be content with a
small return. Tt has not now, nor is
1t likely to be, a time of extraordinary
profits. but rather a time of active
competition.
Bond Market Rallies
The recovery in United States gov
eminent bonds of the losses sustained
the pervious week has been a stfrnu-
lating influence for the investment
market in general. Still the improve
ment Whlcn mas occurred III Lne Douu
list is more of a rally than an advance.
The main upward movement in invest
ment values can only be resumed If
one or the other of two things happens
the money rates must work perma-
nently lower, the supply Of new Sc
~curities be so curtailed that investment
capital will accumulate a sharp loss.
With more and more capital being alb
sorbed in industrial lines, the first
contingency seems altogether unlikely.
As for the second, new issues are still