New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
German and French Plans
Leagues Apart, and No
One Expects Bonar LAWS
TO Satisfy All the Allies
Fear Paris-LondOn Split
Britain's Attitude Directly
Opposite TO That of
France as to Solution
By Arthur S. Draper
Special coble 10 The Tribune

Pans on wednesday they VIII have be-
fore them at least two and probably
three plans for the settlement Of the
lsrg standing question Of German
reparation payments
The Cano government. which sub
nintd q scheme on the eve OF The
conference held here a fortnight back.
will try is luck with another plan. but
aimee Premier Poincare's ideas about
just settlement are poles apart from
those Of the Germans. it might as well
remain IN Berlin. However, there may
BE- happier fate for the plan which
Bonar Law will present 20 the confer
snse. but only q super-optimist would
dare 10 predict its acceptance by ell
Of the Allies.
Poineare himself undoubtedly will
offer plan. II the conference ends
successfully the chances are that il
viii be through an agreement upon
compromise Of the Anglo-Freneh plans.
kussolini might be expected TO sub
nit plan, but he was so utterly dis
illusioned at his first meeting with the
Allied Premiers that he is debating in
his own mind whether his presence Is
not needed more in Rome than in Paris.
Prospects Not Bright
In Official circles there is tendency
% regard the prospects OF a settlement
as less happy than a fortnight ago.
The decision Of the Repsration Com
mission in holding Germany in default
in respect 10 the timber deliveries Of
1922 has created a bad atmosphere for
holding the Paris conference.
The British are convinced that Poin-
care is determined 70 exact guarantees
from the Germans and that nothing
else matters much to the head Of the
French government. For a long time
the British officials believed there was
always the possibility of an Anglo
French agreement for handling Ger
many, but now they fear the Paris con-
ference will be historic in that it will
be marked by the breaking OF rela-
tions between the two countries.
The reasons for this are perfectly
simple. The Bonar Law government
holds just as Lloyd George did, that
there can be no real settlement of Eu-
ropcan problems If France seizes Ger
man territory and holds IL as a guar
anty Of payment OF the German debts
Not only that, but Bonar Law main
tains that economic sanctions would
prove just as injurious 70 tho peace Of
Europe.
Consequently. the British are COM
PEELED 10 assume an attitude which IS
directly opposite to that Of the French,
who want TO get something tangible in
the quickest possible way.
Lone Hand for France
n the two governments maintain the
position which / have outlined it takes
no prophet TO predict that France will
play a lone hand in Europe for some
time 10 come. The only country
which might align herself with France
Is Belgium. and there Is considerable
doubt whether the Theunis government
will be prepared 20 take this profound.
ly important step.
Italy will stand by England in this
crisis, and so will all the noutrals
without a single exception. II IS not
because OF any love for England or dis
81 Ike for France, but solely because the
responsible governments believe such
policy IS 20 tho best interests Of
their respective countries and the re-
organization Of Europe as a whole.
Poinesre's first intention was TO have
a joint military occupation Of the Ruhr
Then this scheme was modified TO pro-
vide for the establishment Of a mill
tary Gordon. and now he asks simply
that customs barrier be fixed.
In British opinion one plan is as bad
as the other, because each is really a
political sanction, even though it is
described as an economic guaranty.
II Poincare remains adamHnt and the
French proceed TO press their policy
British experts believe the French will
discover quickly that they have thrown
a boomerang.
The British arc convinced that inde-
pendent action on the part Of the
French will play havoc with the Euro
pean exchanges, particularly with the
mark and the franc, and that the set
tlement Of the intcr-Allied war debt
will be set back for months. II not
years. They believe trade will suffer
a heavy blow, and il that is the case
the British unemployment problem, Sc
rious as il is to-day. will become in
fnitely w5rse.
Moratorium L. Plan
That is the black side Of the picture
as il seems in this country. The other
is brighter, and it is one which the
British hope the conference will select
The British hope that the conference
will give the Cuno government and the
German industrialists every incentive
TO balance their budget and stabilize
their exchange. That plan calls FOR a
long moratorium.
Bonar Law will suggest also the Sc
lection o. an international commission
10 supervise and examine German H.
nance. Such a commission would call
for American rpnregpntatiop This