New-York tribune., 1922-09-17
Motor Car Trade a Grow
ing, Living Thing Whose
Essence Is Experiments
tion and Progressiveness
Sees Good 1923 Business
saturation Point, Bogey of
Skepsics, Has Nos Begun
70 Approach, He Says

the population, the industry neverthe-
less has within It skeptics who are con-
stantly confronted by the bogcy Of the
point of snturation. Those who in the past
thought it was near wore fooled again
and again by the event. The saturation
point conceivable may not be reached
until the family OF every hard working
msn in city and country has car.
What was originally fad and luxury
and sign Of social prestige, has be-
come, for increasing numbers. like the
telephone. a necessity. Despite marked
vicissitudes and general fuctuation
OF comm odity prices, there has been a
broad tendency toward increasing de-
mand FOR cars by lowering the price.
Mean time, through the better orsant-
zation Of labor for its own protection
and through the limitation of imrnigra-
tion, labor's competition in a marrow
sense, wages are relatively increasing,
making more potential autom obile
buyers. The significant factor in the
boom Of 1922 was the entrance Of
hordes Of new buyers, those who had
never before been automobils owners.
Price Cut Stimulus
Automobile sales were stimulated by
price cutting, which came later than
recessions in some other industries,
especially basic raw materials, because
automobile prices in many cases were
guaranteed. General commodity prices
reached their low point in She summer
of 1921. According to the sensitive
and somewhat prophetic index of
twenty basic commodities of the
Federal Reserve Bank Of New York. the
low point, 121.4, was reached in June,
1921, compared with the peak of high
prices, 1852, reached in July, 1920, and
with 1905 the index figure of Septem-
Der 8, 1922. The index of the Depart
'nent of Labor, shows high Of 247.
reached in May, 1920, low of 1873,
reached in January, 1929, and 155 in
July, 1922. Thus, we see tendency of
commodity prices slowly coming, al
most mperceptitbly, to recover. The
influx of $410,240,o00 of gold into this
country in the first seven months of
the year, potentionally being an in
fiationary factor, would tend to en-
courage such movement. In fact,
one may we'll expect rebound upward
of automobile prices in some of the ex-
ceptionally competitive grades of cars
which at present quotations involve a
lack Of profit for the manufacturers.
AS for the saturation point, it seems
logical not to expect its attainment
until foreign trade has been more eff
fectually exploited. Outside of the
United States the whola world is still
at the stage of yelling Get horse!
Buying power abroad is low at the
present time, especially in Europe, but
we are just emerging from war that
all but wrecked Old World civilization.
Expansion in European buying power
may be slow indeed, but looking ahead
twenty-five years, for example. the
capacity of restored Europe to con-
sumo cars will be a great potential
stimulus to a more saturated home
market Meantime, three other con-
tinents Of varying buying power wait
to be served. From correspondents all
over the world except parts of Europe
the story Of revival Of trade and q
restoration of confidence, in varying
measure, comes.
AS for the outlook, next years auto
mobile business ought to be satisfac-
tory. In most respects, the factors
which can be foreseen must be placed
en- the asset side. The chief exception
| is the fact that part of the 1922 buying
was due to the accumulated demand
which had become pent up during the
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