New-York tribune., 1922-05-25
Question of International
Aid Centers Around
Offer of Guarantees: :
1 Tentative Solutions
Morgan Submits
american Plan"
Understood Paris Confer
ence May Even Decide to
Double Proposed Credit
By Wilbur F Forrest
Special Cable 10 Tho Tribune

Copyright. 1922, New York Tribune Inc
PARIS, May 2A.-Aftcr the prclim-
mary exchange of views to-day at the
meeting Of the international bankers
who are considering the question of
floating German loan in various
countries there was a wave of opti-
mism tonight, and it was believed that
The loan would be made possible. The
meeting is under the auspices Of the
Reparation Commission.
While the bankers pledged them
selves to the strictest silence regard
ing their discussions, word was al
lowed to escape that the psych ologica /
period in the worlds money market I
was at hand. and that there was re
ccptive attitude toward a German loan
If sufficient guarantees were forthcom-
ing 1t was also said that business
morale was of a kind to support such &
financial undertaking and that the pull
lie probably would be ready to buy the
bonds.
In line with the hopeful trend Of the
bankers conference. 1t was reported
that Germany is playing her part we'll,
and there is a possibility of even n
greater loan than the 1000, 100000 gold
marks which would settle the repara-
tions problem for two years. and that
double this amount may be approved.
Another comforting feature Tor the
French and Belgans was that. while
the bankers touched immediately upon
the question of German guarantees
they did not mention any intention of
imposing conditions upon the Allies.
Expect Favorable German Reply
Still another optimistic touch was
the continued assurance OF the Repara-
tlon Commission that the German an
swer to the moratorium conditions set
down for settlement on May 81 will be
I favorable enough not to embarrass the
loan makers if they continue the scs-
sions to that time 1t is regarded as
probable that the bankers viii find It
impossible to terminate their work be
fore the time limit set for Berlin to
answer because after an exchange OF
views and study of the German situa-
tion they will be forced to take re
cess while comforting with home groups
Of capital which they represent. If in
the mean time Germany meets the con
ditons of the Allies, it is possible that
the terms of such a settlement will
be fruitful Of good influence in deter
mining the size and terms of the pro
posed loan.
With the first session Of the interna
tlonal bankers the impression is grow
1.ot @l1
most important ever held in Europe,
that would follow throughout Europe if
the loan failed and thereby brought out
a new divergence Of feeling among the
Allies, and second because Of the posi-
bic stirring up to boiling point sf
the feud between Germany and France
if Germany did not have the funds to
meet her payments. This feeling has
been somewhat Gained by the attitude
of the bankers and particularly the
presence of j. p. Morgan as the Ameri-
can representative.
Problem Ccnters on Guarantees
If the loan succeeds Europe viii be
able TO settle down to business with
out constant irritation of the repara-
tions question. This will give peace in
the commercial world for couple of
years at least. 1t is felt that the habit
of security will grow sufficiently in
that time to make it permanent, even if
all the hopes Of the creditor nations
are not realized.
Financial experts seem to agree that
the whole question of large loan to
Germany centers around guarantees, be
, cause Of the basic fact that the world
would become timid of any plan which
required it to part with money unless
it had some control over the property
which was offered as a guaranty of
payment. Formerly supervision was
exercised only on backward states,
such as Turkey and those of South and
Central America. whose resources were
as yet undeveloped, but until the pres
ent meeting the question Of any great
nation refusing to honor future oblga-
tions has not been made matter of
discussion or doubt, except, of course,
in the case Of Russia. That is the rea
son why the success or failure of the
Continued on page FOUR