The daily star-mirror. (Moscow, Idaho) 1911-1939, 1922-01-07
NEXT SIX MONTHS
TO BRING REVIVAL
DONALD DAVID FORECASTS RIS-
ING PRICES FOR RAW PRODUCTS
GRAIN HIGHER IN FALL

1NU hICL9 On hAN IhUDUCIS
GRAIN HIGHER In FALL
IT feel that the next six months
will bring a period of rising business
activity and rising prices, wherein
the prices of raw products will rise
faster and more violently than those
of finished products" said Donald X
David, assistant dean of the graduate
school of business administration Of
Harvard university, in an interview
Saturday with a representative Of the
Star Mirror. Mr.. David told of eco
nomic conditions over the country
industrial depressions, their causes
and effects, and predicted that busi-
ness revival would start in the east
ern states.
He said, however, that with the
coming of the business revival that it
would not be long before the prices OF
agricultural products would be effect
ed. Mr.. David looks for grain prices
to be substantially higher next fall
than they have been or are today.
Leaves Moscow Sunday
Mr.. David is a son of F. A. David
of Moscow. He is a graduate of the
University of Idaho and was quite
prominent during his undergraduate
days He is a member of the Phi
Delta Theta fraternity With Mrs.
David, formerly Miss Soulen of Mos
COW, he leaves Sunday on the return
trip to Harvard.
Before reaching Cambridge. Mass,
he will deliver addresses at the Uni
versity of Washington, the Universit5-
of California, and at other western
universities and colleges. He ad-
dressed the University of Idaho stu
dents twice, the Washington State
college students three times and on
Tuesday he was the principal speaker
at the Spokane Chamber of Com
merce Mr.. David is addressing the
student bodies of the various import
ant western colleges on economic con-
ditions, business administration, and
the work of the Harvard graduate
school.
Discusses Economic Conditions
His statement to The Star-Mirror
follows
Industrial depressions are not ac-
cidental. They result from powerful
economic forces which control bust
ness conditions. The committee on
economic research of Harvard univer-
sity has demonstrated that it is pos
sib1e to measure these forces, and t0
forecast their effects, within reason
able limits, months in advance of any
important change.
"I believe thoroughly that this and
other economic forecasting services
provide means whereby a great pro-
portion of the heavy losses which oc-
cur as a result of business depresslons
can be avoided. For when comino
disturbances are foreseen in advance
their damaging effects may be great
Iy lessened or completely avoided
Investment Fund Growth
"The last few months have brought
a growth of investment funds, despite
the lack of business profits, decreas-
ed interest rates, and higher prices
for investment securities. We are
just beginning to emerge from a con-
dition of profound business depres-
sion. Prices have fallen abruptly
bank loans have been to a large ex-
tent liquidated and note circulation
has been greatly curtailed.
"The position Of the banks has been
greatly strengthened, not only by
these two factors, but also by the
accumulation of gold in the bank re-
serves of the United States, because
Of the large excess of gold imports
over gold exports.
Easier Money More Speculation
Business, now at low ebb as to
production and with prices greatly
decreased, does not absorb the funds
needed for current oper-
alton. The surplus funds of the cen
raj banks and of business interests
lave thus expanded, and are now
seeking investment. Easier money
conditions will result in increased
The increase in stock
prices and activity on the New York
stock exchange during November and
December is the first tangible evil
lence that easier money conditions
ire having their expected results.
1.-TWO other factors are favorable to
uture business development. Recent
Iction Of the interstate commerce
commission, the association of rail-
way executives and the war labor
,oard point to not too remote ad-
ustment of railroad rates and wages.
twenty per cent reduction in hay
nd grain rates in western and inter
nountain territory was planned to go
nto force December 27.
Curtail Government Expense
"In The second place the proposal
or the limitation of naval ornaments
aade by the United States gives prom
sc of a curtailment of government
xpense. Beyond the material results
rom such saving, the improvement
\ international relationships expected
rom the conference will go far to
llay international distrust but will
estore confidence.
ssI feel that the next six months
yill bring a period of rising business
ctivity and rising prices, wherein the
rices of raw products will rise faster
nd more violently than those of fin
shed products. There is, of course,
he possibility Of reputation of GER I
ain issues of paper money by Ger I
1any. Austria and some other Euro
can countries this spring and sum ]
1er. If reputation should take place ;
he industrial progress in this coun-
rv would be temporarily checked ! {
lso believe that it will take period
f 10 years, in which there will be
everal cycles of trade, to return TO
steady 'pre-war' basis.
Grain Prices To Be Higher
"The last depression started in the
astern states and revival will prob