The Wheeling intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1903-1961, 1922-03-21
ny HuaH

rhUr and molaSses. the EoiuhS irN'V
and baseball dope are w!ta us again
This spring. with thirteen OK IN" SIN
teen teams of the major 'eHgucs changed
r,dtcorv and WIKI alt S!NtecU striving
for new strength. w;th four blk trades
d,r.r the winter affecting the teams
rlaylnr strength. We approach the jon
- drn;Y,. them with more tcmer'ty
than usual.
The chances Of tremendous changes
during the playing season. however are
.ess than they have been for several
years, and the restrictions certain I" be
Y;aCed BY JudG" lands upon the prac-
s.ce "c buying and selling players "ur
Ing the actual playing season. the a'deo
CERTAINTY that he will put a stop To any
deal limiting at collision between club
owners 70 strengthen II club at the eN-
ncrse o. another. give promise that after
We finish the doptnE Il can stand for
the season. save for accidents and IN
turi"s.
one OF two disturbing factors in the
looping this spring IS the number OF
promising youngsters who are !taole 10
remain n add something Z" the
strength OF teams. and the other Ia inc
effect Of the punishment OF Ruth and his
follow rnhels. which will keep them out
Of the game through the first month.
However. this season is compara;tre-
$ clear sailing.
We are starting out to find as near
as possible the strength OF the sixteen
teams comprising the American and Ma
t!onal Leagues. Aftcr We find the team
strengths. we will apply them and Hgure
out how many games each team ought
70 win and lose 10 each other.
This Is accomplished by a system
which I have worked out sor the last
'wo decades. and applied TO every season
and - every world series. II has gone
wrong lust three timcs-that IS badly
wronc-and each time due 10 bis trades
during The season or to changes AFTER
the doping was lone. II has missed
three world series out OF all that have
been played IN my time. Last season
Z worked wiz remarkable success; so
c-eot. In fact. that no team in either
league with one exception in each) was
more than three and 4 half games out
90 the way from what they figured TO
win and lose in March.
Summarizing tho Dope.
That briefly summarizes the way the
dope has worked in the past. There is
considerable dissatisfaction over this
dope because OF the mistaken idea held
by many bail players and many readers
that tt is merely my own ideas. As n
matter OF fact. my ideas have nothing
to do with It. l never known at the
start what the figures Will show: never
know. In fact. @ntsl the last figures are
added up, and sometimes l am as much
surprised to find the strengths or weak
neSScS OF teams rs you are. | have en-
plaIred the system every year. in fact.
twice 4 year. and invited the fans I"
take the system and figure II out Cor
themselves. It is merely t~ransiattu$
the official records oS the men (not for
one year but for 4 period OF years..
nndinG their normal strength. anu
translating the official II ;ure4 into
comparative POSITION strengths and
then into TEAM strengths. anyone can
do il, who has the official record books
for the last four or five years. or can do
T. with fair success with only last
wears books II he is satisfied TO accept
what = player did last year as an index
10 what he will do this. Let mo warn
though that there are a lot Of 300 NIT
ters in last years books who VIII be
lucky 20 hit within seventy points OF
their figures tbs season. Pitching VIII
he better. defensive work tighter. and
the ball not so lively.
The great point OF this system which
have evolved Is thai I divide the work
OF a man Into~departments. used to
ngure on merely the batting and field
ing averages. and discovered II ~or'o
not do. Every ball player knows that
tie hes, man in any position seldom
heads the official averages IN that po-
S!tion. Every one knows that the man
with the highest batting acreage is not
always the best for his team.
Divide Mark.
Tharefnre, I take EVERY part Of 4
mans work and study it-and divide
!, into relative values. and 80 figure
offensive and defensive values or each
man offensive value consists Of Ions
Wis Of hits. bases on balls. hit by
p.tched balls. steals. extra bases taken
on hits etc. Defensive value considers
not onlv a mans fielding average but
tho kind Of chances he gets. and tho
NUMBER. The fellow who tries Tor
everything makes 4 lot OF errors. but ne
wins bal! games. 1t Is necessary 70
rrve some knowledge OF a players
sryle his aegressivencss. etc, his man
ucr Of playing his position. and all that.
uSIally rev upon the opinion or htS
,ellow players and opposing players In
tina, regard. rather than trust my Own
iudgmen Scouts. too. who stsd tina,
sort OF things. are an enormous help.
Figuring the offensive strength or n
plaver IS comparatively simple. The
done hook gives the data. OccasionatI!
We ind some player either far above
or far below where his normal averages
Indicate ne ought TO be. and In those
cascs try 70 hunt for me reason. The
majority. however. do one year just
about what they do another. with the
same slumps and peaks OF hitting. y
had lAc. a run OF hard luck. may account
for the hanScs You must watch, how
ever. For a small regular Improvement
IN players for about six seasons. and
watch carefully for signs o. a sudden
stump. Very few come back after a
sunni The worst mistake the dope
nnde last season was IN the case O. the
chicago White SoN. which was dr." en-
tirely TO tho remarkable comeback or
Red Fabcr. which could not have been
figured even BY Red himself. II IS one
NJ three such cases I ever have known
In baseball.
Defensive Strength.
IA he defensive strength the figuring
cr,s harder. We know tina: p right field
- e no, as important - hfs team In
defense as the pitcher is. In fact. We
know tha no .wo positions ar" equally
Important. although short and second
and left and riGh: ar" nearly equal The
value OF a position depends Uron NUM-
ner OF chances the average man in that
~nos,.inn rcts. So "" hNv" 20 itCur"
out the value % the POSITION and
then figure .he raiue .: the man piayinf
T..
7, IA not sufficient 70 figure Just
Speaker as center fielder Cor tho Cl"ve-
lard team. for Instance. hut "" must
..I. .,., H. NV