The Washington herald., 1922-01-10
SIMONDS WARNS
JAPANESE MAY
STAMPEDE FARLEY
NippOn's Secrecy Places
Arms Conference on
Anxious Seat,
By FRANK II. SIMONDS.

nal and most difficult of all situa-
lions. 1t knows that it must end.
but IT is not yet clear how 1t is TO
end. Aside from a single item. the
important decisions have been made,
but much Of the success or failure
of the whole conference still de-
ponds upon the ultimate disposition
of the last question, and this ques-
tion is, viewed broadly, China;
viewed narrowly, Shantung.
What is Japan trying to do, this
is the question? You may have two
explanations: Either she Is harG-
ing on to Shantung with a definite
purpose to let go when she per-
ceives everything else adjusted TO
her satisfaction; or, she has made
up her mind that she can obtain
Shantung in addition to all that she
has already acquired in the present
negotiations.
Eye ON Political Situation.
To accept the former hypothesis
is to believe that Japan Will do this
When the Nine-Power Treaty, like
the Four-Power Treaty, has taken
final shape and the Siberian discus
sion is ended, and when at the
close. Japan discovers that her po-
sition in Manchuria will not be
challenged and that her Siberian &C.
equations will not be interrupted.
then. as a final gesture. she will
take the curtain resigning Shan
turg. At present this explanation
Is more general than any other. but,
and this Circumstance must be
, stressed. 1t is not so strongly held
az IL was ten days ago.
The alternative suggestion Is that
the Japanese have discovered that
the political situation in the Uni
ted States Is such that a speedy ad-
journment of the conference, with
no further accidents to mar its pic
ture. Is urgently demanded on all
sides, nowhere more insistently
than among the majority senators
on the Hill. Therefore IL the Jap
anese can hold out a little longer,
the proverbial last quarter of an
hour OF wartime phrase. then they
will be able to keep ShaRtung.
Their Purpose Secret.
Now, since the Japanese. although
the most charming and confidential
people in the world, seldom tell you
anything OF real Importance. there
is no one in Washington at the mo-
ment quite sure which game they
emphatically by one group the jap
anese are aware that IL Shantung
Is not restored. the chances Of ia
vorable action by the Senate on the
four, fvs and nine-power treaties
will be gravely lessened and that
therefore, in the end, the Japanese
will desire to protect what they OPP
tain under these covenants and Will
therefore give in on Shantung.
But you are equally earnestly in
formed that the Japanese have dis
covered during the conference that
they came here under a mistaken
notion of American purposes, and
whereas they had expected to give
up Shantung, IL Is no longer neces-
sary; that they are in position TO
remind the American delegates that
thes real success OF the conference
eleventh hour night over Shantung
like that over the submarine.
Matter of Lost Trade.
All of this leaves the Chinese out
of account. Will their so-called
government order them to sign?
VIII they sign, II 1t does? VIII
their government order them not
to sign and decapitate them IL. they
a
preston that the Chinese are less
willing to sign than they were a
week ago, that their backs are be-
coming sitter But what IL the
Chinese refuse to sign? This last
Is a question no one quite likes to
discuss, no one who has the inter-
ests of the conference at heart.
You see, after all. however. that
everythinH has come down to the
last trade. 1t is here as at coun-
try auctions, when you move into
the last room and all the other fur-
niture has been disposed OF, but
something of the success OF the
auction depends upon the prices OBJ
tsined for the articles in this-say
the front room. And the Far Eas-
tern matters are the front room,
sItbough they have been temporar-
lily neglected.
May Be Stampeded-
II Is clear. we have intimations
Of a seui-official character In those
newspaper columns which renec'
offcIaI views, that the American
delegation is at least annoyed oy
the suddeu evidence of a desire on
the bart of the Japanese and the
british to get done and go home.
our pcOplc lCCA a. w 80
ME at the theater when their neigh
bors begin to go out in the last
thrilling moments before the cur
tain falls on the last act. We want
that last act, we came to see 1t,
that act being the rescue of Shan
tunE, and we resent this unseemly
haste.
Yet 1t may be that in the end we
shall be stampeded. The japanese
played this game to perfection at
Paris when they waited until the
Germans had actually started for
Versailles, and then came downstairs
and announced quite innocentiy
that that could not sign the pro-
posed treaty unless they received
Shantung. And everyone knows
that Mr.. Wilson was stampeded into
yielding. Are they playing the same
game now? At least memory has a
certain value at the moment
Hughes In Hopeful.
II the Japanese and tho Chinese
could agree over Shantung. the con-
ference would be over. Despite all
their wishes our delegation will not
be able to do much more for China
than would be represented by the
rescue of Shantung. Whether China
signs or not, that is the outside
limit. We know It; the Japanese