The Washington herald., 1922-01-15
LITTLE EVIDENCE
THAT AUTOSIIFE
SHOWSlgCREASE
Says the Life of Motor
In Service Depends on
Two Factors.

An important statement made by
Mr.. Babson In the report in aues-
tion was to the effect that II during
prosperous times like 1913. 1913 and
1890, the life OF cars averaged six
years. ~ statistics seem to indicate.
then during hard times. such as we
are now In. the average will be
nearer eight. The writer does not
know the basis for this conclusion
of Mr.. Babson's. Replacement hg-
ures for the past ten years show
that while the scrapping Of cars
during q dull business period is
subnormal. the average IL usually
made up during the succeeding
year or two. The life Of a car in
service depends essentially, on two
factors:
/. Motives Of economy ,on the
part Of the owner
.. Thef mechanical possibilities
for long service built into the car
itself.
Any car owner knows that the
older the car the greater the annual
cost for repairs and maintenance,
thus there comes time when II is
more economical to. sell the old
car for junk and. buy a new one
than to spend unusual sums an
nually for upkeep. The average
owner of a car nearing its sixth
year of service comes to reaiHxe
that the annual upkeep would 10
quite q long way toward the ptr-
chase of q new vehicle. or course,
there are Thousands of exceptions,
but we are dealing with. the aver
age. So economy alone has not so
far indicated that cars on the av-
erage should be kept in service
eight years. nor does there seem to
be any specific reason to believe
that the next few years will witness
such a change.
Mr.. Babsoh probably has over
looked the fact that during the past
few years the greatest increase in
annual production 10 largely trace
able to the. increase in the number
Of cheaper cars made. Such cars,
In order 10 sell at a price which
appeals to the buyer of modest
means can not have built into
them. the expensive and unusual
qualities necessary for an unusual
length Of life. From an engineer
ing Viewpoint. therefore, there
seems to be little to favor the belief
that cars will average eight years
of life instead Of six years. This Is
serious consideration for both
dealer and manufacturer. since the
great replacement market of the
future win be based on the length
of life OF cars and trucks In serv-
ice.
A statement to the effect that the
industry has yet to learn the ex-
tent to which economizing can be
carried is more difficult to answer
specifically than some Of Mr.. Bah
sons other conclusions because'it is
more general In character. The only
available evidence seems to be the
sales record OF the present year.
II the motor vehicle industry can
effect a substantial increase in
registration totals in addition to a
fair replacement sale during the
worst business year In a decade, IL
hardly looks to the writer as
though the buying public contem-
plates rigid economy In automobile
purchases. Few people realize the
extent to which the automobile has
entered into the. daily routine of
life in this country. In a report
on the automobile industry recently
prepared by prominent Cleveland
banker. he makes the following Sig
nificant statements:
ITO the writer 1t seems improb-
able that anything short of a pro-
longed era Of serious business de-
preston can force many people
who now have cars to give them up
and do without. During recent
weeks the writer has asked many
people in different walks of life
under what conditions they would
sell their machines and do without.
The replies are uniformly v the eff
feet that only prolonged adversely
of a severe sort would force such a
sacrifice. 1t seems plain that after
people have become accustomed to
using automobiles they will not
give them up unless virtually
forced to do So"
Economy is both praiseworthy
and necessary, but the spirit of the
American people will lead to many
other lines of saving before the
business or family car Is sacrificed.
Mr.. Babson believes that the re-
placement OF cars in quantity will
be deferred because used car values
have declined .proportionately more
than. new car prices, and certain
classes Of owners from motives of
economy must sell cars now owned.
This does not check up with his
previous assertion that the increase
In registration for 1921 will be very
small. Production figures show that
over 1.350,000 cars and trucks will
be built this year. II Mr.. Babson's
estimate that there would be an in
crease Of only per cent in regis
tration totals were correct, then
only about 1S5, 200 Of these would
go to new owners, and the balance,
about 1,650.oe0 would sell this year
for replacement or be held over un-
sold. But We have already seen
that more than three-quarters of "a
million will have gone to new car
owners in 1921. leaving over $4,000
Tor replacement. 1t is a known fact
that replacement of old cars can
be deferred during a depression for
an extra year, but It does not seem
logical or reasonable to assume that
such replacement can be put Off in
dennitely A low replacement this
year Enthusiastically points to q
somewhat increased replacement
next year. Mr.. Babson apparently
would have US believe that the num-
per OF new car owners in 1921 Is