The New York herald., 1922-10-19
LLOYD GEORGE SURE
OF CAUCUS VICTORY
Majority of Coalitions Oppo-
nents Barred and Bolt Re-
garded Impossible.
CHAMBERLAIN INCONTROL
Cabinets Position Strength
encd by Fear Split Would
Ruin Conservatives.

Special Gable 10 THE NEw YORK HERALD.
Copyright, 1929, by THE NEW YORK HERALD.
New York Herald Bureau.
London. Oct. 18.
The caucus Of Conservative men,
bers of Parliament tomorrow is ex-
pected to decide the future bf English
politics and the fortunes of the most
brilliant leaders in public life. But as
Austen Chamberlain, as leader of the
Government in the House of Com
mons, is going to appeal to meeting
of hand picked Ministers and members
his policy of continued association
with Prime Minister Lloyd George and
the coalition seems assured of success.
The one threatening element is the
angry resentment of the Conservative
peers ut not being included in the
caucus.
his group lies in a dramatic stampede
but a majority of the opponents Of
the coalition will not be admitted. and
therefore a bolt is regarded impos-
sible in inner political circles. A vote
of confidence IN Mr.. Chamberlain will
put the situation into Mr.. Lloyd
Georges hands, and he will announce
the dissolution of Parliament or laugh
off the crisis in his speech in Leeds on
Saturday, and carry on with the pres
ent Government till the tension re-
sulting from the Near East upheaval
has subsidized.
The Cabinets position has been greatly
strengthened because of a fear in the
Conservative ranks that the party will
be hopelessly split and become impotent
unless the faithful rally around their
chief, and tonight strenuous efforts are
being made to bring peace or to reach
some sort of compromise that will save
the face of the die hards, though actually
indorsing Mr.. Chamberlain, to prevent
the political chaos which is certain IL the
meeting at the Carlton Club tomorrow
noon forces dssension.
If the program goes through as the
most astute leaders have planned the
Government In every likelihood will sur
vive, for the two strongest wings of the
coalition are well able to carry the coun-
try at an election. IL Mr.. Chamberlain
Is unsuccessful there will be an ava
lanche of designations, started by Mr..
Chamberlain and followed by his coll
leagues Lord Balfour. Lord Birkenhead.
Sir Robert Horne, Sir Laming Worth
ington-E Evans. then Mr.. Lloyd George
and his Liberal supporters. including
Winston Churchill.
This Is certain to bring an immediate
election, because all parties will be hope
lessly divided, save Labor, which Is not
considered strong enough in the present
Parliament to form a Government.
In that event Mr.. Lloyd George prob
ably will go before the country as the
head of the mo party" party, backed by
the strongest lieutenants in his Cabinet.
who stood with him in the dark days OF
the war. and the darker days In po-
litical sense OF trying to make treaties
workable. Unless his personal popu-
larity suffers severe and unexpected
shock II is generally conceded he will
be returned to power.
The morrow Is critical day for the
old line Tories, and Il Is not without n
humorous aspect, as the die hards, in all
their dignity. have been aroused to the
highest pitch. The strongest III their
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