Arizona republican., 1922-02-02
"l922-What Will 1t Mean To U.s."
Is A Vital Question Asked And
Answered By NewYork Financier

that threatened an Incompatible ca
tastrophe.
But all this is behind us and 1922
finds conditions in a large sense calm
and the American people hopeful and
mildly optimistic. There is every
reason for being calm. There is no
reason for concern and there is rea-
son for an optimism that keeps its
feet on the ground. But we are not
going to have in the immediate flu
ture a magic awakening of business.
We are not going to have a general
boom in activities. We are not going
to have a sudden return to sensa-
tional speculation. The underlying
conditions though in the main sound
do not warrant il, do not indicate it.
That we shall have a better busi-
ness in 1922 than we had in 1921 may
safely be expected. The country is
financially sound today. The coun-
try has plenty Of money today for
it's activities and to spare. Interest
rates are moderate and constantly
trending lower. Liquidation, except
in wages, has done its work. There
is no overproduction. The shelves
of merchants are understocked rather
than overstocked. Warehouses are
not filled with goods. Two years of
economy with the American people,
two years of watchful, careful buy
ing have worn wardrobes threadbare
and made inroads in household
equipments. In this situation and in
the very nature Of the case there
will be a better and wider demand
for products of the American loom
and the American workshop than
merchants have been called upon to
Gin -fv rIr NJ aa
OF imitation two years ago. This
great demand for goods will give
work to many women who are now
idle. and as they again become wage
earners they will add to the pur-.
chasing power OF the country and so
In return will make additional work
for themselves.
Considered in this respect the bet
ter business in sight is largely in re-
sponse to the desire and necessity
OF replenishing wardrobes. replenish-
ing household equipments, the con-
struction of new habitations and the
rehabilitation of old habitations. APP
preaching the markets in this way
with depleted pocketbooks and still
under the spell OF economy. the
American people are not going to get
pay in a minute and buy everything
IN Slk0I. On the IHtI viii
buy cautiously. wisely and as they
should buy. This kind OF demand on
the part of the American purchasers
alone, though large in the aggregate.
never gave us a business boom and
never will. Business booms come
from foreign buying and general
American opulence supplemented by
an era of speculation and lavish
spending.
We are not going to have the for
eign demand for our products which
in addition to our domestic demand
would keep our industries working at
high pressure. We are not going TO
have the foreign demand for the rea-
son that with our present cost of
production, with our high wages, our
goods cannot compete in foreign
markets with the products Of our
foreign competitors. So long as the
American wage stands greatly in eX-
cess of the foreign wage just so long
foreign markets will belong to for
eign producers. Our cost of produc-
ton, except in certain raw materials
and in certain Soodstuffs, is now so
high with present transportation
costs due in turn to the high wage
scale that American goods are gen
orally shut out from foreign mar
kets. This means with present cost
OF production that America will re-
main a walled in nation, so far as
concerns foreign trade just so long as
our cost of production in the big
producing countries that reach out
for world trade.
A sound, sane reduction in the
wage scale with a return to genuine
efficiency. the spirit of giving full
measure work for the wage received
would speedily force open the doors
of foreign markets TO America. They
will never be opened to America un-
til American prices are right.
An active bond market is usually
the forerunner of an active stock
market and an active stock market
is generally followed by active bust
ness. From the fact that the last
half of 1921 gave us buoyant. boom
ing bond market we must not as
sumo that we are on the verge OF
wide speculation. 7 should think II
fairly safe Representation. however.
considering all that enters into and
has a bearing on the situation, that
wall Street is reasonably sure to
take on considerable awakening be
fore we get far into 1922.
This does not mean Wild price in