The Wheeling intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1903-1961, 1922-08-05
ROGER RABSoN SHOWS WHY FUN
DAMENrAL CONDITIONS rNDI-
GATE DEFINITE AND SUB
SrANTTAL RECOVERY
Business VIII Pick Up This Pail ana
should CONTINUE 90 Improve for
TWO or Three Years

Wellesley Hills, Mass, Aug. Tho
high Light OF the Ninth Annual Welles-
lev conference, now meeting here for
tho discussion OF conditions and busi-
ness problems. was reached when Roger
W. Babson announced definite turn IN
business and showed why fundamental
conditions Indicate definite and suostan-
tial business recovery.
Standing before Babsonchart II feet
high and 80 feet long Mr.. Baeson e1-
planned tho situation.
II have been waiting 10 over two
years TO be able TO announce that the
most drastic depression In business
history has spent itself. Fundamental
conditions finally indicate that a sohd
foundation Is ready for general ana
substa ntial business improvement.
The white line that I draw today
divides the area OF depression In half.
Satisfactorily It means we are at the eX-
act bottom Of the cycle. Practically II
means that business will pick UP this
fall and that II should continue to I'M
prove for the next two or three years.
Technically, tho business cycle Is
composed Of tho four succeeding cycles
OF Prosperity. Decline. Depression and
Improvement. but the average business
man experiences but two conditions.
Either sales are increasing and business
Is fine or they are falling on and he Is
In deep depression. His attitude
changes, not as we pass from period
OF prosperity above the X limo Into
period OF depression below. but as the
white lines are drawn which divide
those areas-when business changes Its
direction.
psychological Prospsr1ty
When we HAD completed half Of the
depression IN the middle Of 1904, busl-
ness began to improve and business men
went into a state Of psychological pros
perity almost over night. We were
running below normal to he sure. but
things were again headed in the right
direction.
Early in 1907 the panic set in and
business confidence practically disap-
peared. We did not enter the actual
area Of depression until the fall OF that
same year.
In April. 1908. another white line
marked tho turning point and things
doomed again until the long swing
downward set In about June, 1910. This
decline. while not drastic, kept business
quiet until the middle OF 1914. when
things again turned upward. The war
with Its feverish activity carried US on
until tho middle OF 1918. when the
actual rise had spent Itself. Rabid
speculation and soaring prices put
things UP for another squirt but actual
production and general business activ!-
Ties were softening. The natural and
inevitable reaction has kept business in
mourning for two and a half years.
Tho white line just drawn marks
another turn for the better. Business
Is again headed In the right direction
and you can go ahead with your plans.
The banker can now loan with better
coincidence. The business man should
announce his new product. open his
new territory. increase his advertising.
and go after business now!
In spite OF the fact that the stock
market has already discounted the i'm
provement to q large extent. the inves-
tor can hold his stocks FOR the top OF
bull market which Is almost never
reached until after tho white line Is
drawn and general confidence has been
restored.
IT personally believe" concluded Mr..
Baoson that tho present market is lit~
tie over half way to the top"
General business continues to i'm
prove. The index OF the Rabsonchart
reflects an Improvement OF per cent
since last week and stands at per cent
below normal. The highest point since.
1921