Evening star., 1922-12-31
BY STUART p. WEST.

fronting world finance at the year
end are German reparations and the
conflicting claims in the near east
In the main the. domestic business
!outlook is favorable. but no forecast
Of 1923 can be attempted which does
mot take into account the possibility
tof a clash between Great Britain and
Turkey and the complications TO
which this might lead in the rest OF
Europe, or. secondly. which does not
lconsider the probable results OF an
unsatisfactory handling of the Ger
Imam war indemnity.
Without anything untoward hap
ipening on the other side Of the water
it would be altogether reasonable TO
look for continuance of the gradual
in progress during the second haif
of 1922. Credit which twelve months
tago had only begun to loosen, Is nov
abundant enough to take care Oh all
conceivable needs.
| Production is back to what be1ore
1.-THE war would have been regarded
as a normal volume. although still
well below tie actual capacity OF
mills and factories. as this has IN
creased during the last nine years-
The most important item OF the couil
try's wealth has always been the
crops, and these have turned out Wen
iup to the average. while the oo.aI
value is some s2,00o.O 100000 greater
than it was in 1921.
Buying Power Increased.
1t is true that SO large part OF the
grain and cotton crops was HaFketso
early in the harvest season that the
farmers by no means got the adVan-
1or
Cured between the middle OF sep
tember and the close of December.
1t is also true that high freight rates
have made the discrepancy unusually
great between prices on the Iai in,'
land those at the djstributive centers,
Innon which compilations Of total
Nevertheless, the rise Of the last
three months in the commodity mar
kets has improved Immensely, ssse
tricts. as this will be turned TO the
good of the business community our
ing the coming year. Granting, more
lover. a continuance of present prn
levels the complaint SO orten neaL
in the spring and summer tnat ths ne
farmers as a class were worse OH
than any other laboring body VIII
be in a fair way to disappear
Metal Producers Profit.
II u.as not until the third and
fourth quarters of the year that the
lsteel. copper. zinc and other OF 'he
metal producers be gan to opera'e IN
the black. Increased output was
lre,1raiized by inability to get down
labor costs and by the serious euecl
iof the coal and railway shopmen
istrikes. .,,,,,o,ed
| The steel mills are now emploSeas =
at between - and SO per cen. y, "
lcapac;tv. but. as always happens IN
La period of industrial recuperation;
tnrices do not progress toward normal
with the same rapidity as produc,
ZION. consequently, the less favored
4 steel producers are forced TO 40 pusi. i,
brings them in relatively htue
,money. ;,, be
| How largely this position VIII pc
altered by the mergers or lnoepeIiu
ent steel companies which nave Den
nut through during the year remains
~ he seem In the meantime the pre-
diction. made twelve months ago; ma.
1920 would be a season OF gradualls
improving business. conducteo, ne -.
ever. under active competition anu ror
a comparatively smal ~. M :
;been abundantly borne out III the ii'A
iority of Industrial lines
| Retterment in Foreign Trade.
So question has been more vexing
than that of foreign trade. ana one
of tbe most agreeable features OIL the
| situation has been the marked eNi
dences of a change for the better IN
the october and November eNpol
,fipures To he sure, the rise in wheat
Ind cotton had as much erect In
iswelling the totals as any increase
lin the volume. But the main point
lis that foreign nations, despite ,heis
ldepreciated currencies. were anie 10
thuL- during these two months s1oo.-
400 900 more in the American market
than during the two months or jan
mary and February last. Here was a
,compl.te upset of the economic
theory that while the grea TER par
iof Europe was virtually bankrupt
our foreign commerce eouio ioe "or
! The fact is that even bankrupt ma :
Itions do not lose their buying power
so long as they are exchanging tneir
iproducts with those OF other couas as
tries. They must supply their needs
lin the shape of food and raw ma
iterials at any cost. and 1t is evident
THAT when American exports were
/ running, as they were year ago, az
LESS than 5000, 100000 a month. this
irenresenred the irreducible minimum
ibeyond which foreign effort TO cur,
ttaiI expenditures in this market could
;not go.
Record Car LOndinEs.
There has been no more trust
worthy measure of the extent of the
industrial recovery than the record
ibreaking railway car loadinss during
1.-THE autumn. These cannot be ac-
tcounted for by an unusual crop move
lment, for the harvests were OF ordi :
mary size, What they do reflect is
general volume of distributive trade
Exceptionally large according TO an
past standards 81, AS .,nr,a tne ea1 of raiis aIs
way. equipment has to a considerable
;degree been solved.
Still the railroads are far behind
where they ought to be in cars ana
locomotives in order eficientiy te
handle the business offered. The need
nf huyinr freely new equipment and
at the same time providing extra
amounts for maintenance OF way TO
undo the effects of the pertoo OF gov
ernment operation Is the moss power
full argument against reduction In
freight rates.
pulsory lowering Of rates will appear
among the problems OF 1923 depends
upon whether or not there Is TO be
an extra session of Congress, intro
ducing the radical elements whlch
we're successful at the November cleo
tions At the moment 1t appears
doubtful whether the administration,
| against its will, can be forced into
calling Congress together in the late
spring. II the business world could
be assured positively that the new
Congress was not to assemble until
next December it would be a cause
of profound relief.
Il Recovery Of British Finances.
Turning to conditions abroad, the
most notable achievement of the year
was the recovery in British finances
reflected in a rise In the pound
sterling at one time, three weeks
ago, to within II cents of the pre-
4 rT-t. t. y~1,% All