The Washington herald., 1922-05-21
By SIR PHILIP GIBBS.

A<CANHoANs uSh
as being a political prophet. but
may be permitted to point out to
readers who follow my weekly
articles that my forecast of what
would happen at Genoa, written be-
fore the conference began. has
been exactly fulfilled. Lest / be
accused of egotism. / hasten to add
that any man who has kept his
finger on the pulse of the European
situation and has not been blinded
by passionate hopes and passionate
prejudices was bound to reach
similar conclusions.
1t is like an arithmetical prob
lem. II one knows the figures in
volved the result will inevitably
point to certain answer. 1t was
plain when the French ruled out
all consideration of German repara-
tions. all discussion of European
rehabilitation. refused to agree to
common policy with Britain and
other powers regarding Russia.
that none of Europe's most vital
problems could be solved or set
tied. 1t was also obvious directly
the United States refused to par
ticipate that no foreign power
could hold the balance between
Great Britain and France. so that
their opposing policies would not
clash with an immediate explosion.
Future Depends on struggle.
Nothing else really matters At
Genoa or In Europe than this po-
litical tug of war between French
and British views. Every other
question hangs upon the result of
that struggle, and undoubtedly the
future OF Europe itself and OF peace
or war in this generation or the
next. The Russian business Is of
secondary interest. though i'm
mensely important But that also
is linked up closely with this con-
flict of ideas between Lloyd George
and Poincare and their supporters.
1t is certain now that even IL no
genial agreements have been
reached with Russia that country
has been opened up to trade rela-
tions with separate states who will
rapidly take up concessions and
make what they can out of the new
situation. regardless Of all theories
of government.
Russia Is infested by private
traders OF all nations ready for ad-
venture. Many believe that II no
further drought happens this year
along the Volga Valley. Russia will
gradually develop natural resources
and slowly become once again an
exporting and importing market OF
the world. Her philosophy OF
Communism will be restricted to
| national zation Of mineral land and
oil. modified by long-term leases
and concessions. and Russia will be
revealed not as a Communistic
state but as a capitalistic power Of
the most corrupt and sinister kind,
the happy hunting ground of inter
national adventurers and Russian
profiteers.
The Great Question.
This transition was already hap
pening when ] was in Russia last
year. But where this Russian prob
lem is closely bound up with
French and British policies is in its
srelations to Germany. The great
question to be answered Is this:
VIII Russia and Germany, now
! closely allied in trade relations.
| unite also on a military basis, a
| menace of destruction to Poland
and war against France? That
question cannot be answered until
one knows whether Lloyd Georges
and Poincare's views are going to
prevail, whether there is a funda =
mental change in the German
| philosophy of life. which is highly
| improbable.
Lloyd George stated the case
clearly when he said: This is a
struggle between ideas of force and
those of peace and Cancellation. -
With courage and tenacity and
some of his old fire and enthusiasm
surrounded by enemies. attacked
from the rear as we'll as the front
this astounding little man has made
| desperate efforts, has used every
method of strategy, persuasion and
negotiation to obtain victory for
the ideas of peace. His adventure
at Genoa, his own personality, these
are problems which have been dis
cussed only as symbols of that
| greater worldwide conflict between
| ideas of force and ideas Of concilia
ton which are now at issue in the
arena of human history and each
individual human heart
Divergence In Thought.
Is 1t possible to eliminate force
as method of argument between
| nations and substitute reason. COM
promise. moral persuasion? The
Lloyd George school of thought
says 1t is possible and worth try
in. The Poincare school says IL is
a sensational illusion and unworthy
moments thought. The divergence
| of views is being fought out IN
| England as well as at Genoa. Lloyd
4 Georges enemies at home accuse
him of treachery to the empire be-
| cause he dropped the power of the
sword and substituted Cancellation
for force. They prophesy the doom
of the British Empire because force
has been abandoned in Ireland.
where anarchy prevails, and in
India, which is seethtng with re-
volt. So they accuse him of treach-
cry to France because he lie en-