Arizona republican., 1922-02-13

Continuing his personal survey OF
the business of the country, Roger
w. Babson. statistician and business
adviser to 16, 900 of the country's lead
ing executives, reports his findings
on the central eastern states as fol-
lows:
New York, Philadelphia. Baltimore,
and the other large cities south OF
New England, prosper largely from
three sources:
/. Foreign trade, the sale OF goods
to foreign countries even although
the goods came from the interior of
the country.
2. Jobbing: that is. the distribu-
tion of merchandise to retailers IN
the tributary territory.
8. Investments, including the in
terest received from stocks and bonds
together with the profits involved In
purchases and sales of securities.
There Is. of course. certain
amount of manufacturing in these
cities, especially of garments and
clothing, but they are not primarily
industrial cities.
Foreign trade Is severely crippled
for some time to come. Certainly
1922 will show no better than 1921.
Therefore we may expect very little
income from this source.
The jobbers will hold their own in
1922 and should have an increase in
orders. Although retailers are doing
comparatively little business, yet
their stocks are low. and they must
buy a certain amount of goods
whether they want to or not If the
retailers would only cut prices fur
ther. which could be done by de-
crease in operating expenses, the job
bers would have good business in
1922.
The real Improvement. however,
which New York and these other
cities are to witness will come about
through financial conditions. The
bond business should be very good in
1922, The stock market should work
upwards and there NAV be even an
old fashioned boom before the year
| comes to a close. Deals and consoli-
dations will be put through. dividends
will be resumed and other things will
| happen which should enhance the
value of securities. OF course. nc
| wealth is really produced by these
| increased prices. but they affect the
| prosperity Of these cities. All stock
market activity always brings money
from the interior of the country into
the cities and most of it fails to re
main there The small interior towns
furnish the lambs; the cities do tht
shearing, and the wool remains in tht
cities to swell the bank clearings ant
be registered as prosperity. Tbs
eastern cities will see much more o
this money in 1922 than they hav,
seen for some years.
| In similar way the entire state:
of New York, Pennsylvania and thosG
-. II
| likewise. With the exception of stee
4 cities, which will find another quie
year in 1922, the rest of this eastern
section should feel better Agricul
turally. these states simply feed thei
own cities with dairy products, vege
tables and some grain. The centra
part of New York has considerabl
manufacturing and most of thes
cities will fare better in 1922 TIL
same is true of Pennsylvania and tn
other sections.
The electrical Industry OF Schen
ectady and Pittsburg should soon be
gin to feel the rood effects of cas-
money. Railroads and public utili
ties of various kinds are only waitin
for low interest rates in order tina
they may sell bonds before givin
large orders for electrical equipment
! AAtC 10 ANU " OC IAE AdAl4Od
equipment industry. However. none
rates should enable the railroads I
buy. II should be remembered tina
after New England, the next sectio
to be hit by the depression OF 1920
was this portion OF the country c
which I am writing today. For thi
very reason, however. New Yorl
Pennsylvania and adjoining state
will be the first to follow New Eng
land in her recovery. Hence the out
look in these states will be fai
Sales opportunities in these state
will be better in 1922 than in 1872
They perhaps have not turned I'll
corner. but they surely are turnin
the corner.
AS to industrial conditions Wi
say that the state of New York ha
the best statistics on employment I
N any state in the Union. These sho
that in October. the last month Il
which we have figures. the total was
expenditure of the industries of Ne
York was 80 per cent lower than
was at the peak The amount of en-
ployment was at about the same lev
as at the beginning of 1915. but Il
trend is definitely upward. and Il
desks are clear for an improvemel
during the year. Approximately II
same situation prevails in Pennsy
vania.
/ Furthermore. in the mems ar