The Morning Tulsa daily world. [volume] (Tulsa, Okla.) 1919-1927, 1922-02-05
Try j. ELMER THOMAs)

tBy J. ELMER THoMAs)
The recent publication OF an estl-
mate OF the petroleum reserves OF
the United states has aroused In
Tulsa n controversy which is not
conspicuous for fair mental attl-
tude on tho part OF Its antagonists.
The criticisms have ranged from sar-
castle raillory to Questioning the mo-
tlves OF the 10 eminent geologists'
responsible for the final report
The estimate may bc considered
In three ways, 0) the figure aimed
NJ. 90 the method used and CD the
dosirabillty OF making any estimate.
The criticisms avoid a specific attack
on the figure reached, they Indicate
lack OF understanding OF the method
used, but they deny flatly the advls-
ability of Attempting an estimate.
Let us consider tho first phase.
Geology In an inexact science; 10 IL
medicine and surgery. Both are i'm
proved by an Increase In observed
and classified facts. Would anyone
reject today an operation simply be-
cause II had been unsuccessful in
1882 Earlier estimates were not so
carefully made. nor could they have
been. subsequently, when improve
ments were possible, they were re-
vlsed. The revision In each case has
Increased the estimate. Likewise the
number OF men engaged in prospect
Ing for favorable territory has in
creased. Probably one thousand
biologists are engaged In large part
In this work as against about fifty
only 10 years ago.
No one considers that the coun-
try has been surveyed completely for
It's possibilti " az yet, but large
part OF the estimate is the allowance
Tor future fields; 5000, 900, 900 bar
rels may be classified as oil in sight
| and 1000. coo, 900 barrels, as pros
pective and possible. That first
figure Is an interesting one. Oper-
aiors almost Invariably have over
estimated the amount ot oil their
producing property will yield, often
by several hundred per cent. Here
we have at least n fairly careful esti-
mats OF the present known fields
As to outside areas the brief press
bulletin took space TO say the esti-
mates OF oil In possible territory are
absolutely speculative and hazardous
| and that. although they represent
the best Judgment of the geologists.
they, nevertheless may be, at least
ITO what extent have we pros
pected outside areas in the last five
years as against the preceding 20
years3 Operators and their geol-
| ogists have gone afar---to Cat Creek,
Mont, and Eel Dorado, Ark.--and
have drilled deep--to 1000 feet at
| Orange. Texas, and 400 feet at
! Ponca City---and have found oil. The
known possibilities have Increased
largely in the last five years and
/ have been tested In great part. In
addition to the is men responsible
for the estimate, perhaps sixty more
aided In Its compilation and the now
| fields and deeper sands located by
those ~ men In the last five years
I would form n very impressive list.
"As to the method used 1t must
! OF necessity be an approximation.
I This IL an estimate, not a calculation,
| but some mathematical method was
| required. Consequently an unde-
| veloped area was compared with a
| developed area, Its geology .consid-
| cred, and an arbitrary percentage OF
| possibility and chance was assumed d
| by the men best qualified TO make
such an assumption, OF course there
Will be a large variance. but the err
rors should compensate partly. This
accounts for the results which assign
millions of barrels to states not now
productive and not considered favor
| ably, II they prove TO furnish no
oil those amounts win tend to cover
any deficiency in the estimate for
states now producing, although their
| undeveloped areas and deeper for
| nations have been treated In the
| same way. While this method cam
| not be accurate, II must be admitted