New-York tribune., 1922-12-18
Outlook Better,
But Doubt Still
Felt In London
Europe to Have Bad Winter
Despite Conferences as
Result of Increasing I'm
settlement i'm Central Part
British Not Optimistic
Believe Much Improvement
Must BE Made Before Trade
Can Find Established Basis
From re Tr1bune's Eu-opsos Bvrssu
I1.--t-InLl Haaa A.n.r 20. r.l.-.... l..

Copyright. is7s New rork Tribune inc.
LONDON, Dec. i7.-Novsmber trade
returns, the best In nearly two years,
we're received with enthusiasm in all
quarters here, especially as the figuYos
were published Immediately after ad-
iournment Of the premiers' eon>
ference.
The fact that the conference, al
though &c ended unsatisfaetorily for
all countries interested, did not result
in an open break was regarded as
proof that these international nego-
tiationS are being carried on IN a bet
ter atmosphere The continued re-
mArkable appreciation Of the pound
sterling In the dollar market has been
another cause Of enthusiasm as the
year closes. Still the British, with
proyerbisl cautiousness, refuse 10 take
an optimistic view Of the immediate
future. although they believe the
country has in reality turned the
corner
An improvement in trade depends
largely on Developments In the inter
national field. The Paris conferences,
opening January 2, will determins
whether France enters the Ruhr or de-
tideb 10 cooperate with Great Britain
Ia a different policy In eyAeting repa-
rations from Germany. IL France de-
eides 20 play a lone hand II is inevl-
table there will be considerable hnan-
eial and political disturbance In
Europe. and EnglZnd Is bound TO Buf-
fer more or less srom reactions.
10 Is for this reason that British
economists refuse 20 become enthusi-
astie. Immediately after Christmas
the British debt commission sails fer
Washington 70 open discussions with
the American debt funding commits
sion.
Whatever is the outcome OF those
discussions, Great Britain's position
regarding the American debts cannot
be worse than at present On the
other hand, there r. a strong possibil-
fly that the negotiations will result
AdvantageouGly for Britain.
Early In the new year, perhaps u
March, a conference at which the whole
question Of war debts will be discussed
probably will be called.
The spectacular rise in the pound ie
attributed here 70 various causes, IN.
eluding manipulation By the British
government, but experts arc agreed
that the movement originated In the
United States. Americans have in
vested heavily in foreign securities
creating a considerable demand for
sterling in New York. Again, the de-
probation Of continental currency re-
suited In the conversion Of large sums
into dollars and the latter arc now be-
ing turned into sterling.
frff1 Eoua "a Van A nfn
large remittanees to America as inter
est payments and Il will cause much
surprise here II the present rate is
maintained In the last year the
price OF gold has fallen and despite
the general improvement Great Britain
still has an unemployment problem
the solution Of which is far from SIM
pie, and the Bonar Law government Is
making no attempt 20 conceal the fses
that It is extremely serious.
Europe is going to have 3 bad winter
whatever the results OF the interna-
tionAl conferences now being held.
The central European Eituation Is
becoming desperate and further politi-
cal upheavals seer, inevitable. Leaders
Of ali political parties In this country
are agreed on that point, and that is
the reason the Poincare government Is
receiving 80 little support from Greas
Britain
Americas advice 20 Europe 20 eoms
20 an aKresment Is accepted here a.
GOOD and II the British policy sue
eeeds Il viii not be long before cor,
ditions will be such that America Will
be able to participate In a general re-