The Washington times., 1922-06-04

that the political party which
- carries the House of Repre-
sentatives in November will, elect
the President of the United States
IA 1924.
am not venturing upon the
dangerous ground OF political
prophecy. My observation is that
sooner or later every political
prophet becomes discredited. The
only time + ever scored as a politi-
cal prophet was in October, 1915. I
had been campaigning several days
In Kansas and concluding the
speaking tour I wrote to the chair
man Of the Democratic National
Committee: Kansas is as certain
to cast it's electoral vote for Wilson
as is North Carolina"
heard afterwards that until the
day after the election the election
prognosticators at Democratic
headquarters attributed that rather
remarkable prophecy to a feeling
that I had become intoxicated by
hearing my own voice. For once
I was a true prophet. and since
then have sought to rest on my
laurels and have never since made
a political prediction.
NOT TURNING PROPHET.
am not now predicting which
party will carry the House in
November. though I know plenty
OF Republicans who expect their
party to lose 1t, and many Demo-
Gratis who are confident of victory
In November. I also know some
% timorous Democrats, who hope the
Republicans win carry tho House,
because they fear that the Demo
Gratis would make enough mistakes
II in control Of the House to jeopar-
die the Presidency in 1924.
take little stock in men OF either
party who have such little faith
In the wisdom Of their own party
as to fear their party will not
legislate wisely.
II I entertained such views I
would get out Of my party and
become a free lance. Doubtless
all parties and all public officials
make mistakes, but every man
who claims to belong to a party
has faith in it's principles and
policies. How can he, then, doubt
that carrying out Of party prin-
ciples can do otherwise than
strengthen his Barty except in
times when the people are so
bent on a change that they vote
against the party that is in?
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF.
Why do say that the chances
are that the party which carries
the House in November Of this
year will carry the Presidency
two years hence? Because of the
theory. or the practice, that his
tory has a way of repeating
itself.
The election that excited deep
est interest for many years, per-
haps since the war between the
States, was the election Of 1875.
In that year Ohio and Indiana
elected their State tickets in
October and the size of their
majorities was believed to foretell
how they would vote in Novem-
ber. The Democrats carried the
pivotal State Of Indiana In Octo-
ber Of that year and Ohio squinted
In the Tilden direction. In No
vember Indiana gave its electoral
vote to Tilden, who was elected
President Of the United States
at least that is what the Demo
Gratis have always believed.
Certainly, when he carried New
York and Indiana, the States
which all the prophets said would
determine the result, the belief
was prevalent that he had won
until a conclave Of leading Re-
publicans in midnight session at
John Chamberlain's restaurant in
Washington, decided upon the
policy which later caused the
electoral vote OF South Carolina,
Louisiana and Florida to be cast
for Hayes and Wheeler. That
action was the logical result Of
the midnight decision in that
room-John Chamberlain showed
me the exact spot where that his
toric conference Democrats call
ed It conspiracy was held. It
resulted in this telegram: Hayes
has carried 1876 electoral votes and
Is elected"
WAS THERE A TRADEf