The New York herald., 1922-01-15
FAMINE THREATENS
LENINE'S POWER
Economic Forces Likely to
Effect His Fall During
the Spring.
CANNOT FEED PEOPLE
Has Got Only One-fOurth of
Has Got Only One-fourth of
Amount Needed to
Check Hunger.
ABDICATION Is NOT EASY
White Russians Incompetent
and Mixed Foreign Com
mission Disastrous.
Special Correspondence to THE New YORK
HERALD.
by FRANCIS M'CULLAGH.

BY FRANCIS M'CULLAGH.
REvAL. Jan. Best informed for
eign sources in Latvia, Lithuania and
other border States agree with the
authorities I have seen in Esthonia
that Lenines hardest time is close at
hand, and that he cannot survive the
spring on account Of economic reasons.
Figures whereon they base this gloomy
view vary slightly in different coun-
tries, but all agree that Lenine ex-
pected 300,000,000 pools Of brain by
now and has got only one-fourth Of
that. which is nearly all distributed to
towns, though his newspapers falsely
assert he has got half. All foreign cx-
perts agree this spells disaster. Ex-
perts met to-day in Latvia say that
a good deal Of grain is circulated by
private trading, but even this is in
sufficient to bring up the general
amount of grain distributed to a point
Of safety.
Many OF the supposed refugees re-
ported by various recent visitors as cir
culating along the Volga are not famine
victims but corn merchants in a small
way, carrying grain about to dispose
OF by private trade, but in some ways
this private trade makes the situation
worse, for these small amateur traders
get the best prices they can, with the
result that they accentuate the glarng
contrast between wealth and poverty
presented to-day by Moscow and even
by Volga towns where the rich are buy
ing expensive pastries while the poor
are unable to get black bread. 1t is
possible also, say foreign experts, that
ic 10 inc in, for 4ha
Red army, but all. nevertheless, are
convinced that Lenines system on ac-
count OF lack Of grain will not survive
the spring.
Supplies Won't Help Lenine.
Foreign famine relief supplies sent
to the Volga will not appreciably affect
the situation. for. according to all heads
of the relief organization, the bulk OF
such supplies reach the famine stricken,
and II, when the whole Russian situation
becomes desperate next month, the Boil
sheviki seize on the famine supplies they
will only dry UP the stream of foreign
charity and ruin themselves irretriev-
ably in the eyes of the world.
What the outcome will be nobody can
imagine and all conjectures have hearo
are only widest guessing. But all ex-
perts agree that the White Russians
are much more incompetent than the
Reds and that il they get into power
In Russia they will be unable to con-
tribute toward a solution OF the diff
Guilty In any way save by appalling
massacres of the Jews and Socialists.
Some think that Lenine will confess him
self beaten next spring and ask the
Powers to take over from him the job
Of running Russia, but all agree that
the running Of Russia by a mixed COM
mission representing England. America,
France and Poland, would result in the
most awful and disastrous mess the
world ever saw. Some think Lenine
will ask Uncle Sam to take charge, but
others say Lenine may ask Mr.. Lloyd
George. No country in the world is so
confident as France that she could do
the job. but France is the last country
in the world to which Lenine would
hand over Russia.
Nansen recently bought $1,000 tons
of rye from Poland with money ad-
vanced by the Soviet Government, which
Nansen promises to repay in the course
of time out of subscriptions received by
him from abroad He has thus bought
enough rye to support 100000 adults in
the famine districts till June, but none
OF that rye has yet reached the Volga.
Russia's Weakness.
AS TO the general political situation
OF Russia vis-a-vis OF other countries, in
the opinion Of the Bolsheviki expressed
recently by Trotzky in an address to
the Red army, there Is a general league
for the plundering of Russia on the part
Of France. Finland, Japan, Poland, Ru-
mania and others. But this Is a dclu-
sion. The sole reason for the present
simultaneous troubles in Karelia. ST.
IBERIA and the Ukraine Is the weakness
OF Russia and the extreme badness of
its Government and of the economic
principles whereon 1t was run till March
last and from which 1t has not yet re-
covered. and never. apparently, will re-
cover until there Is complete change
OF rulers In the Kremlin What makes
IT. difficult for Lenine TO abdicate Is the
certainty that his murder would imme-
diately follow his abdicatlon. Trotzky
and the other Red chiefs know this we'll.
so that they keep closely united and
xyotid preyent I.enfue from abdIcatfnc