The Wheeling intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1903-1961, 1922-12-30
Famous Sta,istician Discusses
Prices, Wages and Sales Of
Coming Year Stocks and
Bonds to Go Higher-You
Can Make Money During
The Next II Months.

The Next II Months.
Wellesley llills. Mass, Tee So
What's going to happen in 1898.
That question is urpermost in the
minds "f 1000. 900 American business
men and Investors who are facing the
problem or making plans for the New
Year.
Signs arc not clear. and tn" usual
bar"meterS seem to contradict enc all
other.
In racs Of this general confusion We
had hes, fall back OF tho facts and hE-
ures. After Il thorough sturdy OF the
fundamental conditions that govern our
market. Roger " Babson today Issued
statement which clears the air ana
furnishes a basis OF fact for your plans.
We are now at point IN the business
cycle," says Mr.. Babson, where you
can get almost as many different opn-
Ions as there are business men Some
are very bullish for the coming year. and
others cannot see much hope for husi-
ness Tho reason for such a situation
Is that We arc at present neither AT me
top Of a boom nor at tho depth or de-
preston. II we were at either OF these
extremes there would he no question or
what tho next move would be. AS 1t IS
we are about half way between them
During the past year United States
business has steadily advanced until
the average for the whole country IS
what we usually call normal BUSINESS.
Having advanced thus far, shall VIC I'M
mcdiatcly continue into great pros
pcrity period or shall we r" into an
other period OF depression and poor
business. as some predict
az you will only remember the I'VE
years preceding 1921 ard recall what
an enormous orgy OF expansion existed,
you can see for yourself that 1t Will
tako some time to get proper fouhaa-
ton for really good business. we
danced during those years. and no" we
must pay the fidler' his conp!e'" DILL
Business has really been like conval-
esc.ns patient. Everything Will 20 wen
with the patient II he does not Try 10
vot ~, Of bad TOO soon. II no tries TO
nrorao ha will have Il relapse. Wo now
nav. psss.d the mast painful part OF
tho reimbursement The "T.-AS * o'e''
hu, nroress Of cos, reduction ami ie~
balancing is necessary.
Price spread Is Wide.
"Today a widS disparity exists be-
,u,on nricss Of different commodities
and rartIcularly thu spread between
producers and consumers goods. ln'S
iu brake on trade. Onc-haIf OF the
, tople cannot earn enough 10 n"E '''
goods that the other half has 10 SCI.
There are ono hundred and SIN mill'o''
pe ople In the United states ana 'o pei
rtnt ~ them get their living from pro
6uciug or distributing raw ma'cF'a'N
n has thus far been Impossible 10 re,
duce tho prices OF finished consumes
goods ~ meet the cuts on ines" raw
rotcrials The purchasing power "
,hcsc rcUple is out of Its natura! pro-
portion.
~ 10 not entirely 4 matter or Tcdu''
IND wages. although labor COSTS arc
large factor. nor Ia II c1ttrciy H'at,at
OF inefficient management 80 w
r,-oblcm az hish costs Is not Nron'e".
r. anv ono element. aud rcadjnstm"n'
o.,, como IN only ono way--d astic conf
net,,Ioh All this wtli take further time.
Does this mem that there VIII DO
ro opportunities in 1879 NOT oit'
There will be just az many chances ~
wake money a. IN any year you ever
m,k. az much drring the next twelve
months a. In any year Of your business
NE. hut it will not be along tho lines
which made money in 1919 ana ,l'Io
mr. IN ANY other lrom year. The rrohi'
In 1929 viii coma by giving attention -
details. nv stopping the little leaks. ny
snyInx here ana there through now
labor saving Inventions. and most OF
all. by devistng new and more ccohclnic-
oil means Of distributing goods. lh'1
vas not at all tho situation during tnS
business boom. Then the man VINO
s,onnetl 70 prevent small leaks found
,,,,s.,, c,uvht ~ the momentOus rise
In prices and changes IN general condi-
tons.
"Thos4 days nave passed. They were
n,ld and merry while they lasted. Now
business has como back to ear,h' IN
mast industries, an excessive producing
r.o,nity was created During the boom
oynrbead costs were Increased 10 keep
uu with an abnormal turnover l"aaF,
N. amount ~ business has dronpcn
back moro nearly to normal. nut c'S'H
have not been rr"portiOnately reduced
Higher wages. higher rents. MOI en-
peusive sales "rSanIHat'on-'n ,a'
rearIy avery item 81 cHpcns" is out ~
.,r.rnr,Ion with the amount Of business
done. 49,,
INSTEAD Of Wild syratinns IN THO
commodity markets. tho average trehd
throughout the coming year shouIn s'
moro OF SidowIse movement. Some
commodities arc hish and others are
very low, but the majority ut present
arc about IS psr cent above their Levels
a wear ato. year from now We snail
probably find them averaging Al ap"ut
Tho same level they stand today IN
hs,wecn there may hc p further rally
FROM The low OF 1922. and agricultural
rruducts certainly should do better.
Earnings Will Be Higher.
Earnings" continued Mr.. HahSon'
SHOULD average somewhat better man
n, the year just passed. survey ~
40 leading industrial companies. recent
" made by my organization, sho"'n
that in 1919, 90 per cent ot thcSc com.
panies made net profit. Will" only
Dor cent showed a deficit In WI. the
nu,nbcr or firms which could show A
rroft was cut down To ~ per cent.
over half or Sc per cent Of these III
dus,rial concerns lost money on their
wears business. 1922 has witnessed
change from rcd ink figures into nlach
ink figures. but the amount OF net prof.
its will not he large when the books
are finally balanced. We are just get
ting back onto tho right side Of the
ledger.
The shortage ~ labor Is one " the
worst features ut the 1929 outlook The
moment that business works up Ia aver
axe activity II becomes Impossible 10
got sufficient workers. This raises costs
and I'm turn increases commodity prices
and the cost OF living. The immigration
1,tv u LARGELY the cause Of this short