Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1922-12-13
CHOOSING THE TIME TO SELL

The Herald a table of figures, with explanatory
text, prepared by Harry N. Owen, and published
in the Farm, Stock and Home in a recent issue.
The article deals with wheat prices for the years
1876 to 1922 inclusive, and the figures are taken
from the records Of the Minneapolis wheat market
for the years covered. The conclusion which the
writer draws, and which he insists is borne out
by the records, is that there is a very substantial
advantage. to the farmer in holding his wheat from,
fall until spring or summer. According to his table,
in the 20 consecutive years, 1889-192O; there was
an average advance from the low point to the high
point Of 80 IA Cents per bushel annually, and this
advance was always in the later part Of the crop
lyear. IN f ~ ~ y
n so lar as comparisons is possible where diff
terert methods OF computation arc used. there apl
pears to be no conflict between Mr.. Owens figures
and those in the table published months ago BY The
Herald, and none between either and the figures
recently issued by the Minneapolis Chamber of
Commerce. Presumably all the figures are accurate
and authentic. Where, does$th difference come in?
Mr. Owens figures are valueless as a guide to
the trend #5of wheat prices because in preparing
them he has ignored one of the fundamental fea-
lures, namely, the monthly price fluctuations, and
has dealt only with the extreme high and extreme
low prices for the entire year. He finds in a period
OF nearly thiTtyt years an average annual spread
between extrelneElow and extreme high of a fraction
over 30 CENTS. admits that the farmer could
not. be expected to sell all the way through at the
very top price, but thinks that he ought to gain at
least 20 cents Of this spread, which, deducting the
10 cents which He allows for carrying charges, would
leave him 10 cents net profit.
In making His comparisons he compares the
lowest price touched in any month with the highest
price touched. in any other month, disregarding the
fact that either price which he quotes may be many
cents from the average price for that month. More
over, he assumed that the man who sells in the
tall will recessarily> sell at or near the lowest
price touched in, any of the fall months, while if he
holds until the spring or summer months he within
some mysterious manner be able to sell at or near
the highest price touched in any of those months.
His table shows that in November, 1890, the
price of wheat was as low. as ~ cents, while in the
following April it went as high as Sill, a spread
of 81 cents. But the average in the same market
for the last four months of 1890 was 80 plus, and
for May, June, July and August Of the following
year it was .98 plus, leaving a margin of only a little
over Z cents There have been months in which
there wa a spread Of Is, 20 or e5 cents, and even.
more. Why assume that the far1nerswho sells iii the
tall will pick the very worst day in the month, and
the best day if he waits until spring?
Still further, there is no regularity in the trend
OF prices in the various months. AS has been point
ca out several times, the average price has ranged
a little higher in spring than, in fall, but high and
loY points are reached sometimes in one month and
sometimes in another. December has frequently
been the low month. In those years the farmer who
held until that month faced a loss. It would have
paid him better to sell in: September. Having. watt
cd, what should he do,ysell in December, for fear Of
q greatef loss, or hold on in the hope@ofa i better
tprice? MI Owen cannot tell him, nor can any any other
man. It IS easy to look over the record and point
out that wheat should have been aspldl.iinn. October Of;
loneS year and in June Of another. But the f~arnersiis
doing business, day BY day, and his problem is iii
sch today5o or wait a week Or six months That is1
the problem that4he must face. he question IL one
hichssnpbody has ever been ,ableeaatt u aansNer Win
certainty: Some men who ayespenNt their lives inI