The Washington herald., 1922-03-11
Proponents Forecast Rat
ification, But by Mar
row Margin.
HOPE TO MUSTER
FOUR EXTRA VOTES
Rely on Eight Democratic
Supporters to Swing
Treaty.

The four-power treaty. founda-
tion of the new safeguards Of peace
in the Pacific Ocean wrought by the
conference on the limitation of-ar-
mament, will be ratifed by the
Senate, il is believed, but the mar
gin in its favor is so narrow as TO
cause much anxiety among its pro-
ponents
Admitting the result will be close.
administration leaders expres,ed
confidence yesterday that they
would muster three or four votes
beyond the necessary two-thirds.
This view is shared by Senator Tn
derwood. Democratic leader, who
has promised to deliver not less
than eight Democratic votes in ia
vor Of the pact.
Opposition In Pow-Wou.
Opposition leaders for the first
time. however, began to show on
tlmism over the prospect Of win
ming the fight against ratification.
Some Of them held a poW-Wow
Thursday night Among those who
attended were Senator johnson. of
California, Republican. and Sena-
tors Reed of Missouri. Shields If
Tennessee, Watson Of Georgia. Rob-
inson OF Arkansas and walsh of
Massachusetts,. all Democrats.
Senator Robinson. who is leading
the fight on the Democratic side
against ratification. gave assur-
ances that there would be IS Demo-
cratic votes against the treaty. II
his figures are correct. the total
opposition strength will he 90
votes. counting the four Republic
ans who already have declared
against the pact. This would mean
that the protreaty forces would
have to get Sc votes 10 obtain inc
necessary two-thirds for ratihca-
tion. The difficulty is that three
protreaty Senators will be una
voidably absent and probably uu-
paired, so that IL senator Robin
sons estimates are accurate. the
total vote in favor Of ratification
would not exceed 81. and the treaty
would be rejected by one vote.
Democrats May Back Down.
There is a general belief among
cratic opposition will dwindle when
II comes to assuming responsibility
for rejection OF the four-power pact.
which Senator Lodge declares would
wreck all the work OF the arna-
ment conference. They believe that
Democratic Senators would not dare
to risk the storm OF public disap-
proval which they think would fol-
low rejection OF the treaty.
On the other hand. Democratic
Senators say they are not fearful
Of the political consequence OF op-
posing the treaty and they have
schemes afoot to lure more insur-
gent Republicans to their standard.
in addition TO Johnson, Horah.
La Toilette and France. who al
ready have Joined the opposition.
Several Republican Senators OF the
! ''irreconcilable" group have served
notice that they will support the
/ four-power pact only on condition
! that the reservation recommended
/ by the Foreign Relations Commit
tee is adopted. The anti-treaty
| Democrats are making overturas
now to form a temporary coalition
with the Observation-Disclosures Re-
! publicans. led by kellogg. Of Mime
sofa. TO bring about defeat Of the
reservation. calculating that this
/ would force at least three nrora
I Republican ''irreccncilabIes" to vote
/ for complete rejection Of tho treaty.
Spirit Of operconhdence.
Tho feeling became prevalent
/ yesterday that the fight for ratif-
cation has been conducted with 100
much Of a spirit Of overconhdenCe.
President Harding foresaw a hard
/ fight for ratification when he ap-
/ pointed Senator Underwood. the
Democratic leader. on the American
| delegation. Senate leaders on their
part have looked upon ratification
as an easy job. Yesterday they he
gan TO realize that the opposition
would far exceed their expectations
and that il would require all Mr..
CnderwoOd's astute ability 10 draw
enough Democratic votes to assure
| ratification.
Debate yesterday continued to re-
volve about the question: who
wrote the treaty? Senator Robin
son raped Secretary Of State
Hughes. as he did Senator Lodge
and Senator Underwood Thursday.
| for failing to reveal the origin of
the four-pOwer pact. He vigorously