New-York tribune., 1922-12-17
|Poincare Likely
To Hold On Till
Crisis Passes
Premier's Fall Expected but
Not Until He Has Had
Chance to Execute His
Secret Reparations Plan
Many Aspire TO Place
Peret, Barthou, Loucheur
and Letrocquer Promi-
nent in Candidates List
r,.rtof cam \, M TrIburs


Special cable 70 The Triburs
Copyright. 1889. New Yorh Tribuns Inc.
PARIS.
Many people IN France are dis
eussing the probable fall Of The
Poineare Ministry. but there Is M
doubt that the Premier will be able
to hold his own until long after
January ?, when the reparhtions prob
lem will be most acute. The only fault
which the members Of Parliament could
hnd with the PreEiler was that Of not
being energetic enough toward Ger
many. But when he stands before the
Chamber Of Deputies he will tell them
that he cannot divulge methods OF CO.
erelon to obtain reparations payments
for this would warn the enemy and
besides might interfere with the nego'
tistions on January 2, when the four
premlers meet In Paris 70 continue
the London discussions.
There has rarely ever been a time
IN French political history when SO
many different persons have aspired
to the Premiership. Polneare has
stated definitely that he will not con-
t!nue to hold oaiee after the elections
next sumner. But there Is always the
possibility Of his falling 70 satisfy the
desires Of the Chamber and being
overthrow. There are only three mer
now in view who might become Pre-
mier besides Raoul Perst; the hrst
BArthou; the second, Loucheur. and
the third. Letroequer In case some onS
defeats PoineAre during the Chamber
debate one Of these might succeed him
On the other hand. according to parlia'
mentary form. Millerand is expected "a
ask the leader Of the largest group n
the Chamber to accept the Premier
ship. but that man is Arago. and h
is certain 70 refuse such q position
owing 70 lack OF governmental exps'
rienee.
Peret Is Deciding Factor
Raoul Peret, the president Of th'
Chamber. will be the deciding factor IN
ease there is a question in appointing
a new Premier. and as he is in the con-
fdenee of the Chamber he IS always
the hrst man in view. which causes
discussion concerning whether he viii
accept the Premiership. Il may be
said definitely that Peret likes his PO-
sition as president OF the Chamber toe
much for any temporary change to ap'
peal to him. He is in accord with the
views Of ;he most important leaders Of
French life. but II is rare for the Pre-
mier Of France 70 last more than si'
or eight months. whereas the president
Of the Chamber may hold his position
for many years Tardieu is one Of the
leaders OF the Clemenceau group who
wants the Premiership, but clemen-
eeau is not liked By the public, and he
is personally on bad terms With Nil
ierand, whom he attacked short time
ago in the Chamber
Letroeauer, now Minister Of Public
Works, is not liable 10 accept tho
Premiership, according TO political
rumors. since he does not feel he could
solve the present problems facing
France. There remain Barthou and
Loucheur. Both have strong parlia'
mentary backing, but ss there Is some
dislike 70 Loueheur on account Of his
millioas, Il Is not likely he would be
chosen as Premier unless Barthou
either refused or did not succeed in
forming a satisfactory ministry.
Barthou First Choice
Bsrthou. on the other hand. The
Tribune Is assured By those in thu
highest position TO judge. is likely &c
be the first called or 10 assume th'
direction Of state affairs. This is not
only on account of his popularity but
also because he has enjoyed eonsid
erablc experience in foreign Affairs
which is most important for France TO-
day. Barthou. nov president Of th'
Reparation Commiss'on. held the Pre-.
miership before and possesses much
experience with various ministries;
besides he was delegate to the Genou
conference. in which he successfully
defended Frances point Of view. II
Is said that Barthou would willingly
give Up the leadership Of the Repara-
tion Commission. where he receives q
salary Of 100000 francs annually
which in extraordinary in French po-
litieAl life-As he loves power more
than anything else. he would relin.
quish this large salary. which is given
for comparatively unimportaut posi-
tion and one with little possibility Of
exerting any influence. for one Of
greater power. even though the salary
we're smaller. With him in the Quai
d'orsny there would be slight immsdi-
ate change in foreign policy. 20 usually
Premiers follow up their predecessors
IDEAS temporarily, as Poineare did
with BRAND. There is a certain con.
tinuity in French policies due to this
fact, and il Is believed that Barthou
| ...n..iI ~ hn.sanan O.. -. IL. p..Lr l.