The Rock Island Argus and daily union. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1920-1923, 1922-11-02
LAWRENCE SAYS
SMITH IS SURE
! TO BEAT MILLER
(Continued from FIRST Page.)
will win-not the Democratic part

tial nominee of the opposite party
carried the state by the unprece-
dented majority of a million votes
would seem to have, on paper, at
least, the better chance Of winning.
This would be easy to forecast if
one we're sure that AL Smith is as
popular today as he was two years
ago and that conversely Governor
Miller is not as strong.
Miller on Defensive.
For one thing Governor Miller
has been in Office. The incumbent
is on the defensive always. Al
Smith is on the offensive. He is
not new and inexperienced and
talks about the job with much
more fluency than the average can
didate for governor who resorts to
promises and pledges without real
ly knowing the practical side. Gov
ernor Miller, on the other hand,
who is one Of the outstanding fg-
ures in the Republican party in
the nation, is man of rare intel
lect and an aggressive figure. He
is not the kind Of man who is
called a good mixer" in politics.
He is positive and firm and is real
ly presidential caliber. His ar
dent admirers never hoped that if
he triumphed for governor again
he would be carefully considered
for the Republican presidential
nomination in the event that cir
cumstances or personal wish per-
suaded Mr.. Harding not to run for
a second term.
Smith Hard to Beat.
But unfortunately for Governor
Miller he is running against the
most difficult candidate to beat in
"a generation. Totally unlike
Hughes, who gained popularity by
! his spectacular fights against boss
rule, unlike any of the other gov
ernors who came after Hughes, Al
Smith is more of the Cleveland
type-a man of the people. He is
one of those human beings in POI
itics" which the mass seems to
like.
Issues are of course made in ev-
cry campaign but the New York
state contest will be decided on the
basis of an accumulation of enmi-
ties, on the one hand, inevitably de-
veloped by Governor Miller in his
controversies on vital questions
and, on the other hand, an accumu
lation of friendships tor Al Smith
| in a hn o
ever achieved.
The election will hinge as usual
on the size of the Democratic vote
in New York city and immediate
vicinity. Last time AL Smith didn't
get enough in New York city to
quite overcome Governor Miller's
enormous upstate majority. This
time there is every sign that AL
Smith will get more votes in New
York city than he did two years
ago despite the fact that the regis
tration of both parties has fallen
off considerably.
Western State for Smith.
What will the result of New York
state do? Careful canvass of the
situation outside of the metropolis
shows that the cities are strong for
] AL Smith and the country districts
will cast a heavy vote for Governor
Miller. Western New York is
swinging toward Smith. The city
Of Buffalo gave Miller 10000 ma
jority in 1920 but the best infor-
nation available would seem to in
dictate that this will be wiped out
and a Smith majority of few
thousand substituted. Erie county
as whole will probably give Gov
ernor Miller a majority but it will
not be enough to help him on his
march across the state to the
Bronx line. Cities like Niagara
Falls, jamestown, Salamanca, Dun
kirk and Hornell, with their indus
trial populations. particularly rail-
road men who are seeking every
way possible to express a protest
against the Daugherty injunction,
will give Smith considerable aid.
The Democrats are confidently
claiming Syracuse and it is a point
that the death of George W. Aid
ridge has depressed Republican &C
tivity in Rochester where Smith
has also made much Roadway. Ey-
erywhere that Governor Miller
should be strong his majorities will
be cut down.
Crowds Listen to Him.
In Rochester, Republican
stronghold of many generations
Governor Miller had a meeting with
less than two thousand persons in
attendance but the crowds that
f1ocked to hear Al Smith couldn' I
get in the halls.
What does it all mean? Simply
that Governor Miller is not as
strong as he was two years ago in
the Republican sections of the state
and that he will come to New York
| city with greatly reduced mar
gin and will not be able to over
. come AL Smiths majorities from
the metropolis which will be larg-
er than two years ago. Some of
the betting would seem to indicate
a close election but the reasons are
not apparent on the surface. II
looks as if Al Smith would win by
better than a comfortable major
| ity.