The New York herald., 1922-01-08
NO BULL MARKET
APPEARED In 1924
Upward Trend of Stocks Not
Plainly Visible Until 0c-
tOber Advance.
REDISCOUNT CUT A TONIC
Strength Is Chief Characteris-
tic of Market at End
of Year.

NEW years In Wall Street have been
- such disappointment from
speculative point Of view as was
last year or rather the first eight months
Of the year. After fourteen months of
seemingly endless liquidation and bear
market. which began in November, 1919,
the financial community believed last
January that 1t had a right to expect a
reasonably good market for the next
twelve months. That feeling was SO
strong in some cases as to call forth
references to the bull market Of 1921
which was going to develop. Quite the
contrary was true, however. because
during it's first eight months and
throughout that period stocks were con-
sistently weak with intermittent rallies
which lasted just long enough to cause
renewed hope.
The specific reasons for that situation
were numberless. but in the main all OF
them were attributable to one outstand-
ing general cause namely, the slough Of
depression, into which all industry and
which followed the ending of the war
Passed dividends, wretched earnings
statements. high money rates, big and
numerous failures, curtailed production.
labor troubles, political unsettlement
abroad. oppressive taxation at home, low
commodity prices were among the many
causes of a decidedly unsatisfactory
eight months in Wall Street.
or the other four months, a different
tale may be told. New vigor, renewed
optimism, expansion, cheaper money, set
tlement of labor troubles and a general
return to conditions more nearly normal
In the final quarter could not but have a
broad, salutary effect on the securities
markets. Liquidation had run its course.
The force of accumulation began to
make itself felt. All business appeared
to be on sounder basis and Wall Street
once more saw ray of light. Stocks be-
gan to move higher. slowly at first, and
with sharp and effective reactions. But
later. after big, broad, advancing bond
market had shown the way the recovery
IN STOCKS became more pronounced. Re-
actions were fewer and Of smaller conse-
quence. Finally confidence was restored
and in October began a rise in prices
which was sustained, with few interrup-
tions. to the end of the year. In Sep
tember and very late in August there
was tendency toward higher levels, but
the upward trend became plainly visible
in October.
The feeling of genuine optimism pre-
vailing at the beginning of 1921 was
enected In the early trading. In the
first fortnight of the year business in
STOCKS ero fcI
advanced. Then activity lessened and
even big advance in sterling and a
heavy oversubscription OF many bond
issues late in January failed to stir the
market from its lethargy.
That dullness continued through the
Following month with business In stocks
largely professional In character. Espe-
ciaily weak spots developed here and
there, such as Atlantic. Gulf and West
Indies Steamship Lines, which were
under tremendous pressure and toward
the end of the month began the suc-
cession of cut and Cancelled dividends
in all branches OF industry which was
to have such far reaching effect on
the stock market.
Near the end of February a sharp
downward movement once more was
under way and when March came in
shO PioiSoSiOHdl DtdIS were securely IN
the saddle with reports from the steel
Industry showing heavy losses In book
ings, idle freight cars piling up and
more dividends passed. The failure Of
the London conference to come to terms
on reparations hurt the market and
the announcement OF drastic railway
wage cuts to come followed by strike
threats from labor did not help the
situation. Liquidation was on again. full
tilt, and the bears were helping it along
The feature of the market In April
was its extreme dullness. most stocks
working to lower levels. In May ths,.
appeared tendency to rally. which
was aided by cut In the Reserve Banks
rediscount rate. That tendency, how
ever. soon passed into n state OF un-
certainty and irregularity. and business
in stocks became exceed ingly dull.
June proved one OF the most critical
months Of the year. marketwise. Money
rates we're high. Labor looked ugly. A
new crop OF rumors began to attain n
good growth and a real fright seemed "a
possess Wall Street. Liquidation and
short selling went on apace. Mexican
Petroleum was singled out for n violent
attack and on unremitting selling broke
from around $50 TO just above 100. In
one week alone Mexican Petroleum lost