The Bismarck tribune., 1922-05-20
NOW IS GOOD
TIME TO BUY
ADVICE GIVEN
President of Associated Adver-
tising Clubs Speaks Upon
Cycle of Business
NO GAIN TO WAIT
Charles Henry Macintosh COM
ments on Those Who Would
Put Off Buying =
10 GAIN TO WAIT

Put Off Buying
The fallacy of the talk that one
should not buy now because prices
will hit the bottom in two or three
months" was exposed by Charles
Henry Macintosh, president OF the
Associated Advertising Clubs OF the
World, in his talk here and in Mail
dan yesterday following a luncheon
of the Town Criers club. Several
Bismarck Town Criers accompanied
Mr. Macintosh to Mandan.
The country has passed the period
of great price fluctuations, Mr.. Mack
intosh said. There will be changes in
price, up and down, but the person
who buys anything now expecting To
gain by a rapid increase in price or
who refuses to buy now because ne
expects the market to go lower in the
next few months is foolish, he showed.
The person who buys now will get
Just as full value as at any other time,
he emphasized. The person who waits
until. prices hit the bottom will have
to wait % years, he said. He pre-
diets a declining market for quar-
ter of a century, but a very gradual
decline and not a steady one. Mr..
Macintosh said: ...le,
Colonel Ayres, the government sta
tistician who founded the Statistical
Department for the American Expedi.
tionary Force over in France and
then came back to Washington and
investigated price figures running
more than a century, has prepared a
very interesting chart which shows
US that the extreme peak of high
prices over which we have just
passed is nothing new in the history
of our country. We have heard peo-
pie talking as if this last burden OF
high prices were something absolutely
unparalleled in the history of this
country while it has happened pre-
cisely three times the same way.
Three times, prices have gone up
$50 per cent above the starting point.
The first time, after slow and
steady climb of thirty years, that peak
was reached in 1872. The war of
1912 accelerated the climb of high
prices so much that they toppled over
and started down. Then for twenty
five or thirty years that downward
path continued until the bottom of the
valley was reached. Once more prices
started to climb until after a quarter
of a century the war of 1861 1854 ac--
celerated the prices and tOppled them
over. Again they started downward
and kept going down for a period of
;,,a yIon
they started up for twenty-five or
thirty years until the great war ac-
celerated them enormously and again
they toppled over and started down.
History Repeats Itself
Commercial history repeats itself.
We have started down a path which
will keep on going for twenty-five
years and those who say that we may
expect a return to wartime prices or
expect the bottom of the valley to be
reached within few months are mis-
guided. optimists and speak certainly
without intelligent knowledge of the
facts of history as revealed to us by
investigation of the commercial his
tory of this country. Don't think for
Dne minute that the suggestion that
We may have descending price mar
ket for the next quarter of century
and that it may be at least fifty years
before prices return to 250 per cent
above the valley level, means that we
are going to have hard times for at
least twenty five years. -,
Nothing in Common.
Prosperity and high prices have
nothing in common. If high prices
meant prosperity, which would be the
most prosperous country in the world
today? 1t would cost you (but hope
it won't cost any of You) 100000
rubles to buy suit in Russia. 1t
would cost you 1000 rubles to send a
first class letter. If high prices meant
prosperity, obviously a country hav-
ing prices which have reached such
high levels would be the most pros
porous in the world. In reality, of
course, high prices have nothing to
do with prosperity. The only rela-
tion is this: How much in commodi-
ties can man get for what he earns
by his labor? How much will his ef-
fort buy him Seven hundred years
ago, the workmen building Westmin-
ster Abbey and the Tower Of London
were paid penny and three farthings
day for their work. If that would
buy them the same quantity of COM
modities as the salary of a workman
today, then those workmen of 700
years ago were just as prosperous as
our wOrkmen today because it is what
we can get with what we earn that
decides whether we are prosperous. As
prices fall the purchasing power of
the dollar comes up, so from the
standpoint Of the general public, this
constant fluctuation in prices means
practically nothing.
while prices are going up, the
value of the dollar 1s falling and
when prices are coming down the pur-
chasing power of the dollar is going
up.
From the standpoint of merchan-
dising this means big problem. We
will have to do business for the next
twenty-five years on a falling market
instead of doing business on a rising
market as we have for the past quar-
ter of a century. Very few of our
present business people have had per.
sOnal experience in doing business as
wo will ho re.nuired t0 dn II for tho