The New York herald., 1922-10-29
Governors Party Needs
Rural Vote; Lacks Money
to Get 1t Out.
WET ISSUE STILL SMALL
Decline in Registration Fails
to Hurt Either Side-Cassidy
Heads United Radicals.

The State campaign rests on dead
center as Gov. Miller and Alfred T..
Smith close their upstate campaign
and start for New York city for the
hard fight of the windup week. The
contest is yet to be won or lost. A
fair sized politica! wave Will tip the
ship OF state either way.
III there Is an advantage 1t is almost
TOO slight to be discernible. Both sides
are frightened badly. The Democrats
are afraid Of their own situation in
the metropolis and hopeful Of what
may happen upstatA
The Republicans are afraid Of what
is happening upstate and, strangely
enough, seem moro confident than
would be expected that their candidate
is gaining in the city.
With organization reflections about
equal on both sides and offsetting
each other. the women in New York
and upstate balancing their votes. rad
icalism petering out as an issue, the
public dull. and Indifferent and still
locking for the campaig., thrill which
hasn't arrived yet. 1t SINNERS down to
a simple party machine contest.
On that basis the G. o. p. Of this
State hass an unquestionable advan-
tage, as this is normally a Republican
State.
Republicans Have Advantage.
If break does not come il there are
no-bombs set off or unforeseen last min
ute stampedes, the Republicans should be
able on the face of things to push over
their ticket by the advantage Of organ
ization strength.
Republicans believe Gov. Miller has a
little better than held his own up State.
He has warded off the Smith offensive
and made the Democratic nominee an
swer as many questions as he has asked.
Smith has put on rather better show
up State than the Governor and has at
tracted more crowds, but politicians
know that crowds do not count in cleo
tions. The popularity Of "Al" seems to
have been waning a little north of the
Harlem. The voters have grown to like
the dignihed Miller and his dignifed
campaign as being quite as appropriate
to the State capital as the good fellow
ship" man. Smith has not made the dent
expected up State.
Both Sides Figure Closely.
Republicans are saying that Smith will
have $50 0000--not more than 275 600
plurality in New York. Democrats are
saying that Miller will have 250,0O0 up
State. The Republican managers say
they will nave $4,000, up State ana the
Democratic managers are positive of
350.000 as a minimum in New York.
THAT is how closely they are,figuring.
Assuming that the public indifference
evident on both sides up to date prevails
10 the finish and that the sensational
break--something like the Rum, Roman
ism and Rebellion outburst or the NAL
bone street tunnel disaster--doesn't up
set the campaign. 1t appears self evident
that the overwhelming rural Republican
vote will swamp Smiths plurality here
II that rural vote can be dragged to the
polls.
That is the big If in the campaign.
II probably will decide the election--the
most important In the entire nation
This autumn, tho election which may
have a direct and important bearing
on the Presidential campaign in 1924.
III the rural voter can be persuaded
to stop plowing and picking UP potatoes
on election day; IF his apathy Is not
solldified to the point that Il cannot be
broken, the upstate Republican or
ganization ought to roll up the 10000
to 10000 votes which may be enough
to decide.