New-York tribune., 1922-12-31
Rubber Market
Hesitant, Due TO
Restriction Plan
c.usumplion, However, Ex-
IN rected to Break Record
;u 1923, Although No
shortage Is Looked For

uBBER business during the
u first six months Of 1922 was
IN disappointing, but during the
.,u,sr the tire business developed
..r.iderably and consumed larger
-,,,ities Of rubber than expected.
=, outlook for 1928 is promising
,,.,use the estimated consumption
/. larger than 1922, surplus stocks
!. about 10000 tons less and the
s,r,nscn restriction program is ex-
-.,d 70 curb any unhealthy condi-
ans which may arise from over
roJuetion.
-. ,onsumptlon Of rubber In The
r,,s,1 States during l9ZS Is estimated
!. sSab0O tons, which exceeds any pre-
-. v,sr, according TO Paul Elbogen,
w. ...,,issnt Of Fred Stern & Co.
wy. ,-As,r brokers'. Approximately
80. ~, s,rt q the 1922 consumption" /"
=. Pyihor,a said, "was used for tires.
e.. &c ! ssastieal point Of view there
,rrslus II world rubber stocks Of
,ssess tsns. not including stocks in
i..s.N This is about 20 per cent Of
-. w,rl{'s annual consumption. Sur
-, aocks at the close Of 1922 arc
,!s,-orimstely 10000 tons less than the
.r,,visus year. The worlds production
-, year. under the Stevenson restric-
- risr. will be about 100000 tons. or
.rIv 10000 tons more than the United
s,,sss consumes annually. The con-
srmption for 1923 is estimated at $780,
oos tons. This does not mean there
IN bea shortage Of crude rubber, how
aver. for there is az present 10000 tons
n stock or. with the production pro-
srru, about $4,000 tons more than the
srlmsted consumption for 1923. From
H. statistical position IL Is obvious
,kst TIE tendency is very bullish and
,dess will most likely be marked up"
Prices Of crude rubber In January.
ls22, we're 20iz cents q pound. From
Ysreh 70 September rubber was 10
ssnts q pound and at the end Of Sep
TIMBER 1871 cents, and from then on as
A result OF the restriction program
vriees rose until to-day they are ap-
fortunately 2Sls cents a pound.
The year 1922 began with the hope
hat voluntary restrictions at the plan
iations would be effective, and so re-
duce the constantly increasing stocks,
and ended with a gOvcrnment-enforcing
restriction Of 40 per cent after the
failure Of the first hope, according to
X Cross, Of Arthur Stedman, crude
rubber brokers'. "Owing 10 the lack Of
the usual forward trading with the fac
isriss," Mr.. Cross said, "the local mar
let narrowed down very nOticeably. -
vas in this position Of exceedingly
narrow trading aud low prices that the
Stevenson plan for restricting prOduc-
ton was brought forward accepted by
the Colonial Secretary, passed by the
several legislatures and ratified by al
before the first Of November.
Meanwhile, prices started 20 ad-
vance. Sellers. being undecided as 70
the outcome, held their rubber. and the
market advanced 81 per cent between
October and October II. This ad-
rsnce drew several OF the larger fac
ifries which we're low on stocks into
" market, and their efforts to cover
tfr requirements helpeu 70 ivtCt INC
nfket TO higher levels.
The situation as tho year closes Is
ne Of waiting. Dealers realize that
he market must ultimately 90 20 az
east l5d. the minimum as fixed by the
stevenson plan, and are therefore in
lined 20 withhold their rubber from
nc market. Factories are generally
n the throes Of inventory and paying
little attention 10 tic market The
point to somewhat higher
,rices before the end Of the first quar-
er, and a probable shortage of rubber
With consequently higher prices, before
he end OF next wear"