New-York tribune., 1922-01-25
i. S. Cardinals
Likely to Miss
Pope'sElection
Cardinal O'Conuell and Car
dinal Douyhcrty May Ar
rive III Rome After Proc
lamation Of New Poptif
|Ital;an's : Choice Favored
Cardinal Mcrcicr and Cardi-
nal Merry del Val Popn.
lar. hut Lack Needed Vote

WASHINGTON, lan. u (By Tie As
eccisted Press AS q result Of the
death Of Cardinal Amaraz Y Santos.
Archb . shop OF Seville, Spain, which
took place one day after the death Of
thc Pope, ii was said here to-day the
vor-Ital;an cardinals who will enter the
next Conclayc Will be reduced to
.wcnty-rinc, a. against .hirty-ono ltal-
:aas.
1t is considered probable hero that
Cardiual O'Conrell, who Is 50 d to be
lcnS 10 the group supporting tho eloc-
son OF CarGin'l Merry Del Val. Will
70. arrive in Rome before the proc
.smation Of The rev Pope: ao~ will
CARDINAL DouehertS, of Philadelphia,
wso is sad 10 he enc of the group sup
-crtrg the election of Cardinal Gas
-arri.
Other cardinsls vao. it is believed
~ow, probably viii not participatc IN
The opening Of thc conclavc. are Car
a!rsl Begin, Archbish hop Of Quebec:
Cardinal Cavalcanti, Archbishop of Rio
do Janciro, and Cardinal Frisco. Arch
bishop Of Naples. In such an event
mere will be only hfty-fve cardinals
present at the conclase on February ..
Expect Election February
It IS expected that on the first bal
'0t the votes viii be dispersed SO that
10 enc VIII even approach the two
thirds vote o. a6 required. The first
ballot, '. was said to-day, would Ger
tsinly snow woes for Cardinals Gas
parri. De Lai. Pompili, La Fontainc.
Boggsni, Lualdi, Mafi, Merry Del Val
and Mcrcier.
The second ballot, however, it was
added, would probably reveal the two
strongest cand dates. although neither
perhaps would approach the prescribed
:" thirds. If the necessary vote is
rot received BY q candidate on the
th'rd or fourth ballot, il is most likely
that at the fifth ballot, on the ncrn-
inG of February :, the majority Of the
Sacred College will agree on a candi-
dste outside OF those who have re-
ceived insufficient votes in the two
previous days.
Should this prove to be the case a
week from Saturday, shortly before
noon throughout the thousand rooms
OF the Vatican. the cry VIII ring out
Of "Habenlus Ponteficem.''
The assertion was made here TO-DAY
that any impression that q kind Of r;y-
s'ry existed between the Italian and
th7 so-calied foreign cardinals over the
selection Of a Pope Of Italian or non
Italian authority was mistaken.
Cardinal Mcrcier Popular
Most Of the so-called foreign Cardi-
nals agree OF the advisaDility that the
foae should be an Italian, because Of
tradition only ty-eight Pcpes were
fore gners out of eco. because the
sea: OF the Papacy is in Italy when it
was at Avignon the Popcs we're Frenci. !
s0d because Of the neutrality which the
Italians succeeded IN maintining in the
Mosl asouontous periods in the history
Of the Pap2cy.
The coming conclavc is an example
Of the difficulty Of electing @ Pope from,
cutsiee Italy. The most popular for
eign candidate now, it is considered
viii be Cardinal Mercier, but he is ex-
peetcd here TO receive at the outside
1s!s, two English. Two Poles. one Cana
clan. one Portuguese, one Czecho-
Sloyak and perhaps half the ltaliars
making total OF less than twenty
eight vo-es.
This tgure probably could not be
augmented, it is said, as the cardinals
of Germany, Austria, Hungary, Spain,
Holland and at least half Of Italy. who
nave not sympathized with the attitude
Of the Belgian member of the Sacred
College IN the war, would not vote
Tor him.
The only possibility os returning
now, after several centuries, to q non
itaiian Pope. II is believed, lies in the
selection Of Cardinal Merry del Val
Who. because of his long sojourn in
Rome, Is considered an italian. Yet
ms election is considered improbable,