Evening star., 1922-03-23
Only 11th-Hour Switch Can
Upset Calculations on Four
Power Pact.
65-28 VOTE EXPECTED
IN BALLOTS TOMORROW
Brandegee Reservation, Regarded
Unhurtful, Only One Likely
to Be Accepted.
BY G.. GOULD LINCOLN.

ON the eve of final vote In the
Senate on the four-power Pacinc
treaty, absolute confidence in the
ratification of the pact was expressed
today by Senator Lodge. chairman OF
the foreign relations committee.
All the votes have been carefully
counted and listed. Only an eleventh
hour switch can upset the calcula-
tions of the leaders. And no such
change OF front is expected.
Expected to Stand 65 to 2s.
When the vote is cast tomorrow on
the resolution of ratification. the sup
porters of the treaty say, 1t Will
probably stand 65 to IS. Senator
Jones of New Mexico. democrat, op-
ponent of the treaty. is paired with
Senator Grow of Pennsylvania and
Senator Fernald of Maine. (Ratifica-
tion requires a two-thirdS vote, whlch
accounts for the pairing of an op-
ponent with two supporters) 1t was
intimated today that possibly the vote
in favor of the treaty might be even
stronger than these figures show;
now counted upon to vote against
the pact would, in the end support IT,
Assured Of Votes.
Counting the entire membership OF
the Senate, the supporters OF the
treaty affirm that they are assured OF
the backing of ffty-six republican SEN
ators and eleven democratic senator's.
or two more democratic votes. Four
republicans only are arrayed against
the treaty.
Today, under the unanimous con-
sent agreement, the senators were
limited to speeches of not more than
an hours length-this Limitation De-
gan at 3 o'clock yesterday afternoon.
When the Senate convenes at noon
tomorrow, the voting on the treaty.
any amendments and reservations
which may be pending, Will begin
without further debate and will con-
tinue until the treaty IS disposed Oh.
One Amendment Pending.
One amendment, offered by Senator
Robinson of Arkansas. was pending
today when the Senate met, and also
two reservations by the same senator,
and reservations proposed by Sena-
tors Johnson of California, Pomerene
of Ohio and Walsh of Massachusetts.
The Robinson amendment was the
pending question in the Senate. 1t
would add at the end OF article OF
the treaty the following:
Each of the high contracting par
ties will refrain from entering into
or being a party to any secret treaty,
agreement or understanding with any
other power or powers during the
life of this treaty"
The defeat of the amendment is
assured, it was said.
Concentrate on Reservation.
The opponents of the treaty today
were concentrating their efforts to
obtain a sufficient number of votes
for the Robinson reservation, which
provides that outside nations with
whom controversies may arise shall
be invited to a conference with the
1t was said by a leading democrat
today that the drive had been SO sue
cessful that only two or three more
votes were needed to affect the de-
sired result. Democratic senators
who intend to vote for ratification of
the treaty have been appealed to to
support the Robinson reservation. If
a sufficient number of them can be
pushed into line. 1t is the plan to
inform Senator Lodge that unless the
Robinson reservation is accepted the
treaty will be rejected.
So far. however, even the supporters
of this movement admit that they have
not enough votes to accomplish their
purpose
The Pomerene reservation provides
that any adjustment of controversies
arising between the four powers them
selves or with an outside power. and
understanding arrived at with an out
side power following conference, in
order to be binding upon the United
States shall be ratified and executed in
accordance with the constitutional
methods of the United States.
Reservation by Walsh.
The reservation offered by Senator
Walsh Of Massachusetts, provides that
"if the United States should grant to
the Philippine Islands their independ-
ence subsequent to the ratification
of the four-power treaty, the inde-
pendent Philippine state shall be ad-
mitted to all conferences called under
the terms of the said treaty and enjoy
the same rights and privileges as the
original S1SnatOrleS.
Senator johnson has presented the
so-called original Brandegee reserva-
ton. which was discarded by the Con-
necticut senator during the considera-
tion of the treaty in committee fol-
lowing a discussion of the matter
with the President.
Still other reservations. 1t is expect
ed, will be offered for the considera-
tion Of the Senate before tas dnal
vote Is taken.
Brnndesee Reservation Pending. -
There is pending, of course. the for.
eign relations committee reservation
drafted by Senator Brandegee and un
derstood not to be regarded Dy the
President as hurtful to the treaty
This reservation has been attach ed
to the resolution of ratification by the
foreign relations committee and rro-
vides that 1.-The United States under
stands that under tine statement In the
preamble or under the terms Of this
treaty. ther. is no commItm ent to
armed force, nc alliance, no cbl.ya ion
to Join IN al y defense"
This reservation, and this one alone
the leaders declare. will be adopted
Senator Owen of Oklahoma and Sen
ator Trammell of Florida, both DEM
ocrats and counted in favor Of the
treaty, who have been away from
Washington. are expected to be here
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