Evening journal., 1922-01-26
SEE TRADE BOOM
IN near FUTURE
Kiwanians Hear Worst of
Business Depression is
Over
URGES EXERCISE
TO KEEP HEALTH

Hinkernen OF the Alexander Hamu-
ton Institute. New York, addressed
the luncheon meeting Of the XII
wants Club in the Hotel dupont yes
terday.
Mr. Ball spoke OF the need OF a
man living in the city taking ex-
ercise. He said that statistics show
ed that the death rate as far as
adults were concerned. was not de-
creasing. but was going the other
way. Mr.. Hinkernell spoke OF Mod
'ern Business Methods"
Mr.. Hinkernell spoke in part as
follows:
I'VE have passed considerably
more than half way through the pc
riod OF depression and by the sum-
mer OF 1922 will have an abundance
OF loanable funds. This will be. the
chief factor in stimulating revival.
Among the readjustments to be
made meanwhile are reductions in
freight rates, a decline in wages in
the building trades in New York City
and the arrangement Of a new wage
contract with the coal miners on
April I. II we could have a decrease
in railway wages OF 10 per cent, in
addition to the ~ per cent reduction
last July. and a cut OF 20 per cent in
wages in the building trades in New
York City and a similar cut in coal
miners wages in April, we could look
forward to combination OF easy
money. low wages and cheap ma
terial next summer. which would
stimulate new constructions and
hasten trade revival.
THE worst OF depression and un-
employment is over and the general
trend for the next two years is to-
ward better business. There are
three factors which favor this con-
clusion;
Il. The public have economical
severely and retailers have reduced
their supplies below the ordinary re-
quirements OF the country. Mercan-
tile conditions are healthy.
-. There is no reason for any
further restriction OF trade activity
on account OF a scarcity OF credit
The banks are comfortably situated
80. We have the most intelligent
farmers, the best educated work
men and the best trained and mosi
capable business men in the world
This Is something which our bankers
seem TO forget when they are visiting
Europe. They conclude that with
500 million people in Central Europe
only partially employed. the world
cannot enjoy business revival
II is admitted. OF course. that bust.
ness revival would come more speed
ny II Europe enjoyed a normal pur
chasing power. These bankers, how
ever. forget the sharp contrast II
the character OF the populations OF
the two continents. In Russia, 10
instance. the people do not have tn
ability 10 provide a remedy for tn
existing situation. In the Unite,
States. however. every man not onll
enjoys a purchasing power five o.
ten times that OF the average Euro
pean, but our people have the abil
ity 20 provide a prompt remedy fo
business depression owing to thei
educated intelligence and willing
ness to get together and work.
think 1O6 million people in tn
United States are going 10 brinl
about business revival despite chao
and prostration in foreign countries
with this combination Of busines
intelligence. financial resources an
healthy mercantile conditions. tn
United States will make speedy pro
gress toward complete readiustmen
during the next few months an
presently the trade improvement
the United states will spread to for
eign countries and help TO lift ther
out OF their depression.
II produces a psychological i'm
petus toward prosperity by stimulai
ing individual vigor among consun
ers and creating and maintaining m
forward-looking business sentimer
which is necessary 10 attain max
mum recovery in minimum time.
Agreeing that the United Stat,
will succeed in working out its ow
raivation and in helping other coui
tries TO get on their feet. the que
tion arises whether prosperity wi
start from tho existing level Of price
and wages or from a lower plane.
Nobody expects to wait until v
are down TO a pre-war level. Pricl
may reach the 1918 level ultimatel
but not until after another periC
OF trade revival. Al the present tin
the average cost Of living is IS to
per cont. above the pre- war level. TT
- 4.
will yet he decreased by reduction
in freight rates. coal prices al
building materials. As a gener
thing It semes probable that the ne
period Of revival will begin with Il
average level OF wages. prices al
the cost OF living in the neighbo
hood of As TO so per cent. above pr
war level, but with different indu
tries showing variations from 4
general average.
There is not much doubt as TO 4
character OF the next period OF bu
ness revival. There will not be
restoration OF the huge profits. g
ioyed during the war There will
no conspicuous advances in wag
and retail prices The best we G.
hope for and the most we shou
desire. is a return to normal produ
duction with a moderate trade prot
Wholesale prices should increa
somewhat but without proportion
increases in wages and retail pric,
The next period OF prosperity will
featured mainly by a stabilization
selling prices while production a
employment increase, also BY an