The Washington herald., 1922-08-06
By FRANK H. sIMoNDs.

Il Is probable that Poincare and
Lloyd George will have met in
London and not Impossible that
this momentous conference will
have terminated. The single doubt
seems to rest upon the ability Of
Italy to form q cabinet in time to
In the present situation. more.
over. the presence of Italy is al
most q prime necessity. Writing.
therefore, In advance. II Ii only
possible to discuss in the rough
some of the issues which will con-
front this new London gathering.
Certain of these issues-an of
them, in fact, which affect Ger
many and the treaty of Versailles
are familiar to the whole world.
We know pretty clearly that the
OF London will succeed
or fail as its labors affect the
present Anglo-French debate over
the German problems. Generally
speaking the real test is whether.
in return for cancellation of the
French debt to Great Britain,
France will consent to modify its
demands upon Germany:
InternatienaI .TradinE.,
All international conferences are
no more nor less than trading af-
fairs. Most but not all Americans
appreciated this fact keenly before
the Washington conference had
finished its labors. The British
came here to make the best bargain
they could in the face of a naval
competition which they could not
sustain. The japanese, in a similar
position, were prepared to amend
their naval program provided they
could impose terms upon US which
would make II impossible for us
to act without fleet beyond
Hawaii. We wanted to get rid of
naval program which was tre-
mendously expensive and did not
CONFORM to any national policy,
AT Washington we had the whip
nand because IL lay within our
resources to construct a navy which
would be supreme. We were in a
position to ask price from all
comers on that account. The Brit
ism, on the other hand, had to ex-
change a traditional supremacy of
the seas and a peril OF an Ameri-
can-Japanese war. il some settle
ment were not made. What m.
British sought was to sell us their
anglo o-Japanese alliance and tbair
traditional naval supremacy for ~
agreement of naval equality Min.
some sort of international arrang.
nent as close to an alliance a.
could be put over.
british Out for Bare.,,.
At London the British bav. ,,,
eards TO play. They can orfer ,hs
french a cancellation Of a Az,
upwards of $4,000, 900. 900 for Frsnch
agreement to a reduction 10 ~.
German indemnity, not neces..ri1'
same amount but by at least
mueh. They can also offer the
hcn some form OF military guar
ahee against any fresh German
assression- Beyond this they can
sIso promise their assistance in the
notauon of any international loan
to aid France.
now what do the British want In
return. for they are certainly out
ior a bargain and are the shrewd-
est International bargainers in the
world. as Washington and Paris
ooth demonstrated In substance
tney want the German indemnity
reduced by from a half to two
thlros- They are prepared to can
Gel their share. or even, under GER
tain circumstances. to turn it over
to France. provided the French
agree that the total of reparations
shall be brought down to some
thing like s12.5oO, 900. 900. the figure
OF the American experts at the
Paris conference.
Would Cancel All Debts,
What they aim at is the cancel
lation of all debts between the al
lied nations in Europe, which
means in practice the reduction of
the total of German reparations by
$1,000. 900. .000.- the further reduction
by similar elimination of the
British share. Then they want the
evacuation OF German territory by
allied troops and the flotation of
an international committee; once
the French begin to be paid the
danger of French Intervention by
force disappears.
Now what do the French want?
First Of all, money. France has
spent between $1,000. 900, 900 and
$4,000. 5000 on reconstruction and
war pensions and is carrying this
item on her books as a loan to
Germany, that is as something ul-
timately to be eliminated by Ger
man payment. II Germany does
not pay and IL payments at least
of the interest on this huge sum
does not begin at once, France is
fiscally bankrupt. France wants
enough to pay her costs Of recon-
struction. her debts to Great Bri-
tain and to the United States and
the treaty of Versailles fixed her
share of reparations at a sum which
IL paid would do this.
France ON Danger Line.
The French card in the game
is the legal right bestowed by the
treaty of Versailles and the repara-
tions decisions to soI1e $17.000.000,-
900. The treaty cannot be modified
unless she agrees and IL Germany
fails to pay the French have the
right. although it is questioned by
the British. to act against Ger
many. In any event they assert
the right and possess the power.
Unless the French consent there
can be no reduction of reparations
and in the near "-'ture a German
collapse. and fo hat matter a
French and ItaliL fiscal collapse,
are inevitable. But unless France
can raise mony by selling her power
of veto, the French collapse Is as
sured. and Giolitti has just told
us italian bankruptcy is approach
ing Enthusiastically.
The French are prepared to re-
duna their cIa inns nror,