The New York herald., 1922-05-21
Reparations Must BE Re-
duced TO an Amount Ger
many Can Pay.
ENDING RUSSIAN MENACE
Depends on Whether LLOYD
Georges or Poincare's Views
Will Prevail.
ny SIN PHILIP eInns.


Special Cable to THr Nrw YouK HnanD.
copyrighf. is:s. ~ Tnr Nrw yosK IIEa.lB.
LONDON. May 20.-l don't pose as
being a political prophet. but l may
be permitted TO point out TO readers
who follow my weekly articles that
my forecast of what would happen al
Genoa, written before the conference
began, has been exactly fulfilled. Lest
be accused OF egotism | hasten 10
add that any man who has kept his
fingers on the pulse of the European
situation and has not been blinded by
passionate hopes and passionate
preJudices was bound TO reach similar
conclusions.
1t is like am arithmetical problem.
II one knows the figures involved the
result will inevitably point TO certain
answer. 1t was plain when the
French ruled out all consideration OF
German reparations, all discussion of
European rehabilitation. refused TO
agree to common policy with Britain
and other Powers regarding Russia
that none of Europe's most vital
problems could be solved or settled. IL
was also obvious directly the United
States refused to participate that no
foreign Power could hold the balance
between Great Britain and France, so
that their opposing policies would not
clash with an immediate explosion.
Franco-British Tug of War.
Nothing else really matters at Ge-
noa or in Europe than this political
tug of war between French and Brit
ish views. Every other question
hangs upon the result OF that struggle.
Undoubtedly the future of Europe
itself and of peace or war in this gen.
Grafton or the next. The Russian
business is of secondary interest,
though immensely important. But that
also is linked up closely with this con-
f1ict of ideas between Lloyd George
and Poincare and their supporters 1t
is certain now that even IL no general
agreements have been reached with
Russia that country has been opened
up to trade relations with separate
States which will rapidly take con-
cessons and make what they can out
Of the situation, regardless of all
theories of government.
Russia is infested by private traders
of all nations ready for adventure.
Many believe THAT if no further
drought happens this year along the
volga valley Russia win gradually de-
velop natural resources and slowly be-
come once again an exporting and inn
portiDg market of the world. Her phi
losophy of Communism will be re-
stricted to the naturalization of min
eral land and oil, modified by the long
term leases and concessions, and Rus
sia will be revealed not as a commu-
nistic State but as capitalistic Power
of the most corrupt and sinister kind,
the happy hunting ground of inter-
national adventures and Russian
profiteers.
Russo-German Menace.
This transition was already happen
ing when / was in Russia last year.
But where this Russian problem is
closely bound up with French and
British policies is in its relations to
Germany. The great question to be
answered is this: Will Russia and
Germany, now closely allied in trade
relations, unite also on a military
basis, a menace of destruction to Po-
land and war against France? That
question cannot be answered until one
knows whether Lloyd Georges or
Poincare's views are going to prevail.
whether there is a fundamental
change in the German philosophy Of
life which is highly improbable.
Lloyd George stated the case clearly
when he said: This is a struggle
between ideas OF force and those Of
peace and conciliation." With cour-
age and tenacity and some of his old
fire and enthusiasm, surrounded by
enemies, attacked from the rear as
we'll as the front this astounding little
man has made desperate efforts, has
used every method Of strategy, per-
suasion and negotiation TO obtain VIC
tory for the ideas Of peace. His ad-
venture at Genoa, his own personality
these are problems which have been
discussed only as symbols Of that
greater worldwide conflict, between
ideas of force and ideas of Cancellation
which are now at issue in the arena OF
human hustory and each individual
human heart
Force or Reason.
Is 1t possible to eliminate force as a
method of argument between nations
and substitute reason, compromise.
moral suasion? The Lloyd George
school Of thought says 1t is possible
and worth trying. The Poincare school
says it is a sentimental illusion and
not worth a moment of thought. The
divergence of views is being fought
out in England as well as Genoa.
Lloyd Georges enemies at home ac
cuse him OF treachery to the empire
because he dropped the power of the
sword and substituted conciliation for
force. They prophesy the doom of
the British Empire because force has
been abandoned in Ireland, where
anarchy prevails. and in India, which
is seething with revolt. So they accuse
him of treachery to France because he
is endeavoring to weaken the French
Government by maneuvering 1t into
isolation. refusing support IL France