Idaho County free press. [volume] (Grangeville, Idaho Territory) 1886-current, 1922-07-13

BABSON SAYS
Big Crops Are Due


elan, today made the following analy-
sis of the crop outlook:
"Today interest is conferred around
the prospective 1922 crop output.
cannot overestimate the Importance of
agricultural products at this time, not
only as business barometer, but as
the means of restoring confidence and
higher spending power in those see
tions that suffered most acutely dur
ing this depression period. / have
travelled through the grain and cotton
areas and know the farmer carried
more than his share of the ieadjust-
ment responsibilities. Yet this is his
tory, and the farmer is looking forward
with considerable optimism to probable
developments during the next few
years.
CROP sCARES ALWAYS
%'The outstanding feature of the
june government report is that acreage
OF wheat, oats, and rye is 90 percent
less than year ago, but the estimated
yield is III percent greater. This
means that growing conditions are
comparatively favorable. I have yet to
witness year where crop scares and
marked price fluctuations did not ma
terialize. Weather and insect ravages
cannot be forecast, but as conditions
now stand, the total grain output
should about equal normal proportions.
The winter wheat crop is now being
harvested, the yield estimated ut 3.f
percent over 1921.
"Spring wheat figures are placed at
1873 percent more than year ago, with
the total considerably in excess of the
10-year average. Nevertheless, wheat
is statistically strong. Our exportable
surplus for the current year was placed
at 255,000,00O bushels. Actual exports
for the season approached 265,000,00O
bushels. The relatively large crop is
entirely offset by the limited carry
over Australian and Argentine stocks
are also limited. True, the price level
of wheat is high compared with corn
and oats. Wheat, however, is the ma
turaI leader and ! would make one
point clear; namely, that until Russia
is again in position to feed a great
portion Of Europe. the price of wheat
in this country will remain high.
BIGGER YIELD OF OATS
"The number of acres devoted to
oats is 81 percent under a year ago, |
Still the prospective output is 90 per
cent more. The estimated yield of |, |
305,000,00 bushels about equals the
ten-year average. 1t is well known |
that oat prices are fundamentally too
low. Considering the limited crop of
year ago and heavy consumption on
the farms, the carrv-over promises TO
rule far under normal proportions. This |
phase is not discounted by the present |
price level. anticipate higher aver
age price level for oats during the |
1929 season. The rye crop shows
the most redical developments of all. |
Acreage is 1873 percent over last year,
while the prospective yield shows an
increase OF 40 percent. With the ex-
ception of 1918, this is the largest fig |
ure on record. There is no fundamen-
tai reason why rye should not follow
the general trend of agricultural pro
ducts.
''With the advent of the new crop, |
marked price elevation is not logi-
cal Still no serious price decline
should eventuate this fall, and the
1929 seasonal rise should be more
pronounced than in the season about
to close. The Babson agricultural in
dex of ten leading products is now
quoted at 14s, which shows 2s-point
rise over the low during the fall of
1q21 The elevation in agricultural
products has already increased the
spending power Of the farmer. 1t
should be remembered that 1922 pro !
ducing eosts-labor, fertilizer and
ransportation-are ranging on more
popular basis compared with recent
years. Therefore, with good crops and
higher average price over the next
year, the farmer s income is bound to
return gradually to normal
COTTON BELOW NORMAL
~ am particularly interested in
cotton. The condition is now estimat-
ed around 20, which compares with
10-year average of IS. Last years
crop was the smallest in modern his
tory, yet the record carry-over con
stituted total figure that successful
Nv COPIED with the curtailed European
and domestic demand This year the
carry-over is nearly back to normal
and a crop in excess Of
/ / 500 900 bales is now indicated
Europe has been taking between
5 900 900 and 100000 bales annually /
since 1913,' concluded Mr.. Babson.
ffThc pre-war figure was between s.
900 900 and 100000 bales Europe
must buy raw cotton in greater guam
tity if she is to maintain supremacy
in the finished product. With the
settlement of the present textile strike
domestic consumption viii be higher
NOT lower. theoretically there is
world shortage of cotton and until the
statistical position is corrected, a con
dition that cannot materialize for at
least another year the average price
will remain as high if not higher than
the present level