The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1921-11-04

petroleum; (e) textiles; ca food
stuffs, (s) tobacco Indlces Of the
volume of manufacture are de-
.yeloped for each one of these in
duStrial groups. and these eight
group indices are in turn combined
into the index for manufacture as
n whole The index Il shown graph
ically In Chart II.
Tn. index registers clearly the
cycle through which manufacture
has passed in this country since the
81 RnInE Of the armistioe, The general
slump which opened the period had
run Its course by March, 1918. From
the spring Of that year to March,
1870, there was . strong upward
movement impeded. but not revers-
ed. by the steel and soft coal strikes
Of the fall and the railroad conges-
ton Of mldwinter. April 1891. wit
messed the turn OF the tide. From
then until October there was .
gradual curtailment Of industrial
output; and In November and De-
cember, sudden and drastic contrac-
tion. The opening of 1891 found
manufacture generally at q low
level It remained there during the
ensuing six months, unmistakable
gains In some lines being offset by
the heavy losses In others. July
showed the lowest output Of any
month during the cycle. Available
data for August record q definite
Improvement and the index for Sep
TENDER promises to rise distinctly
above so per cent of the 1919 month
ly average. An upward movement
seems clearly under way.
Careful examination Of the cycle
of industrial output suggests q
number of provisional conclusions.
In the first place, It Is apparent that
the length of the wave-like move
ment Is not exactly the same from
one cycle to another. Unequal in
tervals elapse between the periods
of maximum output. as well as be-
tween the times Of most extreme
lethargy. The cyclical character OF
the fluctuations is unmistakable, but
the movement obviously Is not OF q
mechanical sort
Period of Depression Shorter.
Second. it may be noted that the
period OF Industrial activity tends
to be of longer duration than the
period OF depression. Output seldom
remains below normal continuously
for longer than a year and . half.
On the other hand, production has
been well above normal continuous
ly for periods as long as two or
three years, not to mention the Pc
Rod of practically four years due
to the incidence Of war demands.
In the third place, comparison of
the data indicates that the timing
of the phases of the cycle Diners
widely from trade to trade. One in
dustry will be already experiencing
reaction, while another seemingly
enjoys complete prosperity. Thus, as
early as May, 1929. the slump had
begun in the textile trade. ut was
not until the following November
that production in the iron and steel
industry showed a marked decline.
Whether these relationships of the
different trades are regular and per-
sistent only further Investigation
will determine, but II Is already evil
dent that the phases of the cycie
are not at all Simultaneous through
out industry, but are diverseIy
timed
Finally. II seems clear that there
is wide variation in the amplitude
of fluctuations in different indus
tries. The iron and steel trade is
subject to extreme disturbances.
The range between maximum and
minimum pig-iron production is
much greater than the range be-
tween maximum and minimum cot
ton manufacture. The fluctuations
of wooden and worsted manufacture
also seem to have a much greater
amplitude than those of cotton.
Other industries such as tobacco
manufacture, meat packing and flour
milling show narrower variations
than the textiles.
Despite these significant differ
ences in the various groups of in
dustries. the pervasiveness of the
cycle is clear. The ups and downs
Of Industrial output are not to be
charged to monetary and financial
systems nor to political administra-
tons. At critical junctures govern
ment action may hasten Industrial
movements of a fundamental sort,
But the cycle runs its course under
varying financial conditions and
with little reference to the fortunes
of political parties. 1t constitutes
one of the Underlying influences to
which modern business enterprise is