The Washington herald., 1921-02-05
PAISH SEES HUGE
GERMAN LEVY AS
BRITISH MENACE
Depletion of Big Nations
Power to Lower
Standards.
WAGES WOULD DROP
Underselling in World Mar
kets Would Mean Price
Decreases.
By SIR GEORGE PAIsH.


LONDON. Feb. 4.-The decisions
Of the supreme council as TO sums =
which will be demanded from Ger
many for reparation are not taken
very seriously in England. They
are regarded merely as the half
way house TO the ultimate sum
which Germany really is expected
TO be able TO pay. The fixing tents-
lively Of a sum is having an effect
which probably is opposite 10 that
which responsible statesmen expect
ed. II is causing the British busi-
ness world to realize that great pay
ments year by year over so long a
period would render Germany a
most formidable competitor in the
worlds markets for manufactured
goods Of all kinds, and that Ger
many would be compelled to orer
to sell chesply in order TO obtain
not only the necessary food and raw
materials required for the support
OF her people. but also to make the
great reparation payments she will
be compelled to make low bids for
every contract, and this fact would
be used in order to obtain CORE
sPoldinEly low bids from manUfaC-
turers Of other countries.
wesId Force Wages Down.
The necessities OF the case would
compel German manufacturers -
pay wages a very long way below
the world standard, and this wuuId
inevitably entail correspondfnEIv
low wages in all countries with
which Germany traded. This in
turn would mean that the lower
wages and lower standard OF living
in Germany would extend to other
countries. When it is borne in mind
that the great expansion Of trade in
modern times has in a large meas
ure come from the advance in real
wages, and in consequence a higher
standard Of living. one realizes. thar
opposite influences would bring
about a very great contraction in
world trade and production s.
that IL reparstion terms are er-
/ forced. conditions generally in man
Ufacturing countries will probably
revert TO what they were 4 genera
tion or even two generations ago
II is evident. however that
neither the manufacturers nor
working people OF Great Britain are
willing 70 submit TO misfortune
which would intensity the evil Cf-
feCts OF the war, and that even =
they are not Immediately successful
in inducing the statesmen TO recon
slider their decision. Unemployment.
/ labor troubles and financial dincUl-
| ties will result and sooner or IHtr-
cause the present plan to be mod
fed.
Must RebuiId Tern Territories.
British bankers and business men
! recognize that Germany must paw
such a sum as will provide for che
reconstruction Of the devastated dis
tricts. but a sum which Will not So
impcverish the German people as tN
render them an economic danger to
the rest Of the world and a hin
( drsnce to progress.
Clearly the rate Of wages and o.
profits everywhere must be affected
! by the rate OF wages and profits oc
any great power. and II a great ns
| tion such as Germany be kept in
/ poverty for a period Of over forty
years, all nations will suffer from
economic misfortune while danger
Of a renewal OF war in the future
becomes highly probable The work.
| ing classes Of Great Britain are al
ready losing the sympathy which
they felt for France and for BEL
! Gium during the war and which
contributed to the extraord ef-
fective work they then performed in
maintaining Great Britsin's produc-
tive power despite the absence Of 81
large a section Of the adult rnHla
population in the army and navy.
The imposition Of terms Of poacs
which must render them permanent =
ly poorer cannot fail 70 destroy tho
remainder Of their sympathy.
British May Aid UnderdoE.
In the event Of a recurrence Or
war, IL is more than doubtful u
| they would, in the new CirCum-
stances, be prepared TO go to the
assistance OF nations which so iittIe
understand modern economics - 70
impose conditions which would
| bring permanent poverty not onlv
to vsnquished nations but &C the
| entente and neutral nations. Alec
the conditions imposed would par
ticUlarly affect the British natisns,
whose manufacturers and workmeR
could not hope TO compete in world
markets with German goods pro-
dUced and sold under conditions
which the reparstion terms render
| inevitable.