The New York herald., 1921-08-18
Next Winters Weather.
1t VIII Be Colder Than Last Winter
II the Signs Work Out.

To THE NEW YoRK HERALD; There are
several ways to go about telling what
next winters weather will be. Natural
signs, by animal or vegetable. are as
likely to give result as premonition.
Mr.. Squirrel Is so far from being a
careful provider that when a break
comes in long. cold winter you may
see him out taking advantage of the
January thaw by hunting for grub. IL
the season Is right the tree will grow
more of an annual ring than usual. and
It's bark will be softer. but that doesn't
indicate mild winter 1t shows wet
summer. The birds fly south when they
get hungry. If they come from Canada
1t does show that winter is livening up
In the north and may presage cold
wave in few weeks But generally
the living signs are valueless; people
believe In them because they only re-
member those that worked.
The next way to study the coming
season is by using old records to find
combinations which have a value greater
than $3.50. Different combinations show
correct results as high as 100 per cent.
but the average is about so or SO per
cent. ; the same as the daily forecasts.
The only way to forecast weather cor
rectly Is by the mathematical method.
The formulas for this method are not
yet complete. While 1t Is not advisable to
risk statements made from uncompleted
formulas 1t may not be amiss to call
attention to some of the natural signs
of value and also to one or two of the
deductions from old records--speculative
meteorology. All these point to a win
ter calculated to bring out the furs.
have previously pointed out that the
first visible change to the winter mon
soon. August 1, took place as early as
ever knew It. This means that the
spell OF thunder showers has cleared
away: the northwest has peeled UP. as
the farmers say. This change inaugu-
rates the hurricane season, though some
years hurricanes don't form. But such
an early change Is a natural sign that
the cold air reservoir to the northward
will deplete itself before its time and a
warm, late fall result while it Is filing
up. Result, a second overflow just in
t:ne to start regular winter. Even
II winter kills itself by being too early.
yet there Is nothing like getting good
start and snow on the ground in De-
cember will make the season In the minds
of many.
Turning to speculative theories the
old records show that winters always
alternate In temperature, though snow
falls may increase or decrease two sea-
sons in succession. 1t is not to be un-
derstood that winter temperatures in al
ternating necessarily go in the other di-
rection beyond normal; but IL last win
ter was colder than usual the next will
be not so cold, and If, as happened last
winter, the weather was warmer than
usual. the next winter will be not so
warm. But the belief that cold winter
means a hot summer and a cold sum-
mer a warm winter Is fallacy. 1t may
happen, but more likely not.
The weather Of this fall will go to
show more OF the character of next win
ter in a speculative way. In fact, there
is one combination which Is practically
proved correct by the New Haven rec
ords OF nearly one and a half centuries.
Cold and wet falls always introduce cold
winters.
For guess. next winter will be not
only colder than last but considerably
so. A. D. ELMER.
Boston, August 16.