The Washington herald., 1921-11-11


that there is a principle animating
business progress. In this case II
Is one In seventy.
Before starting the story II might
be well to point out that reliable
statistics show that In volume the
of goods over retail
counters of the country has been
larger 10 date in 1921 than for the
same period in 1890. These statis-
tics taken by themselves are likely
to be misleading. for they would
seem to indicate that the retail
trade has been prosperous through
the depression which has affected
every other line. They must be
read In connection with other ng-
ures. showing that In value the
has been considerably
less.
The actual situation was that the
retail trade OF the country came up
to 1870 with huge Inventories Of
high priced goods and was faced by
a falling market. In other words,
for all the statistics indicating
huge retail trade in 1891 the retail
business this year has been In just
as parlous a state as any other line.
How This Man Works.
Now for the story. The chief per-
son concerned Is the managing head
of the store. It Is his own modest
wish that his name be not disclosed.
On an upper floor of the store he
has a large ONCE facing q busy
street. There IL an expensive car
pet on the floor of the once ana
there are two expensive desks and
several expensive chairs. The ex-
ecutive occupies the once In soli-
tary state. He smokes pretty con-
stantly and spends a good deal Of
time walking around the room
chewing the end Of q cigar. Some
more of his time Is spent before one
Of the windows. his feet spread
apart, his hands under his coat
tails, looking out on the busy street.
Once a week there is q meeting of
the department executives and
buyers, at which the managing
head listens to reports and opinions
and receives advisable gives ad-
vice. At other times the managing
head visits the various departments
and has little conversations with
their heads. But the impression
business now, and look for
is spent wearing out the expensive
carpet In his large once.
Your business has come through
this depression in such splendid
shape" 1 said, that it would be
extremely interesting to know how
you have done It."
rs the depression OVER" the
manager asked.
well, what do you think?"
'T think" he replied that the
prospects are for the upturn. We
are doing an excellent seasonal
business to continue good through
the winter and get better as we ap-
proach the spring"
We seem to agree on that Now,
will you tell me what II was that
made you think a depression was
coming and what steps you took to
meet it?"
Foresight in 1910.
The manager assumed q thought
rul expression.
TT was back as far as 1919" he
said, that I decided prices had to
come down. They were away too
high, you know, following the war
time boom. And when prices go up
they have to come down. That is,
IL they go too far up.
Lots of people talk about normal
prices and normal business, mean
ing the business and prices of 1914.
But you've got to remember that
there Is a normal increase of bus
mess and rise in prices. I figure
the business increase at about 10
per cent a year with US. which
bring US az this time up to about
so or 20 per cent above our 1919
level. and the rise In prices that
would have taken place since 1914,
leaving the war out of considera-
ton. at about rs per cent.
so. I figured our 1919 business
on that basis. and 1t was evident
that prices were inflated and bus
mess was inflated. We had to fg-
ure on lower prices and a falling
off In business In addition, there
were conditions in Europe to be
taken into consideration. Europe
was In a bad way and was going to
be worse. We couldn't escape the
reaction from European conditions.
That would bring our prices still
lower and make our business still
worse.
There wasn't any way to say ex-
actly when we would be hit, but
that we would be hit was as certain
as death and taxes. But I couldn't
convince my department executives
and buyers of 1t. We have about
seventy of them in this establish
ment and they all thought me get
ting too old and conservative.
There wasn't one of them 1 could
convince 1 was right.
They said the war had put punch
and pep into business and boosted
everything up to higher levels,
where II was going to stay. They
said the boom was going to last for
years, there was no end in sight
And the statesmen whn caine in here
were always boosting that game.
They were all the time warning our
buyers that they couldn't promise
to NIL orders at any specified time.
"'Order all you want they would
say. and then double 1t. You won't
get more than half what you order.
anyway. much or little. We're
stacked up so far ahead with orders
that we never pretend to fill more
than so per cent of an order
Then our buyers would tell me
about 1t and say. Look at that.