The New York herald., 1921-01-30
Total to Be Paid in AZ Years
Would Be 269 Billion
Marks Gold Inclusive
Of Interest.
BRAND NOW FACES CRISIS
Bets Are Being Made That His
Ministry Will Fall This
Week-Tax Feature
May Save 1t.
BY LAURENCE HILLS.

Special Cable to TIE NEW YORK HERALD.
Copyright, 1921, By THE NEW York HERALD
New York Herald Bureau.
Paris, Jan. 90.
formally approved the reparations
plan to-day, which means that Ger
many will be asked to pay 226, ,000, ,000,-
900 marks gold in forty-two years, plus
a tax Of 1915 per cent. on exports.
Exclusive of the tax feature the
amount is nearly 10 per cent. less than
the sum fixed at Boulogne Of 100000
600 900 marks gold, which, calculated
at per cent. interest for forty-two
years, would bring the total to be paid
by Germany to 269,o00,ooo,ooo marks
gold.
This reduction is what Premier
Lloyd George obtained here for surren-
dering his opposition to the indefinite
factor represented by the tax, the
value of which. considering all OBJ
stacles that must be overcome In i'm
posing 1t, even If the Germans should
approve it, appears negligible to al
nlObl GNtIy CAPGis. LhC sS<A iSASA V
may save the BRAND Cabinet, but this
is very doubtful, as the total sum with
out the tax represents the essence of
the scheme which Premier BRAND
protested against before the Chamber
Of Deputies. and increases rather than
diminishes the French budget problem,
Only by getting the bankers Of the
world, principally American bankers.
to discount her share of the annuities
can France meet her problem.
The whole plan Is submitted to the
Germans, who will be invited to London
February 2s to give their answer.
Gcrmany's Answer Known.
Gcrmany's answer TO the note con-
tanning the allied demand. which viii be
sent out In q few days. Is already
known. 1t will he a fiat refusal and.
inasmuch as the tax feature Is entirely
outside the treaty. the refusal can
easily bring back matters to where they
started
Germany's point blank refusal is fore
shadowed by n statement made this
morning from the most reliable source
Of German information available to THE
NEW YORK HERALD.
"Thc plan is absolutely impossible"
this authority said. mo German Gov
ernment accepting II could escape revo-
luton. The highest estimate of Ger
many's capacity to pay annually does
not exceed 1.750,000.000 marks gold
even II Germany is allowed to retain
upper Silesia and the Allies retrocede a
substantial merchant tonnage"
Germany's refusal probably will be
made known when the Brussels confer
ence Of experts resumes. on February q
its Investigations into Germany's con-
ditions. In inside British circles there
Ia not the slightest expectation that
Germany will ever pay a reduced sum
OF the tax. Some, value. they believe.
may attach to- the first annuities. but
after that the whole thing is too prob
iematical for the British to consider 1t
In their own future plans. But to
France the discount value Of these an
nuities for many years to come. should
Germany accept. Is vital, and even the
French admit that discount Is impossible
unless all the Allies indorse Germany's
pledge.
u. 9. Cooperation Essential.
In the adoption of the reparatlons plan
America has not been consulted. and X
Amer cas- views we're learned here at
all It was through Sir Auckland Geddes
This despite the recognition that Amer
ica's cooperation is absolutely essential
II the German obligations are to be
financed.
To-day's action presages political
debate next Tuesday. involving the life
OF the BRAND Ministry. and wagers are
being made, with odds at eight to five.
that Il will fail A Cabinet headed by
RAYMOND Poincare could repudla,o the
whole scheme. but at the peril now OF a.
definite break In the alliance with the
British.
Al best France during the first two
years will receive the equivalent of 81
600. 900, 900 paper francs. inasmuch as
Belgium's priority is 2,b0o.000,000 marks
on Germanys payments. With this
France will be expected to meet her
growing budget deficit of more than
$4,000. 100000 francs. Counting the ex-
port tax on the basis of the figures for
1919. Frances part OF all German pay
ments will not exceed $4,000, 900
marks gold. against her total pensions
and damages Of 100000. 900 francs.
The United States may formally pro-
test against the Allies imposing an ex-
port tax on Germany without first con-
sulting her as being violation of her
rights which the Knox resolution af-
firms is not ebing overlooked here, tho
effect being to raise the prices OF United
Confiuucd on Third p1Oc.