The Washington herald., 1921-03-11
Move Seen to Force Hand
Z Of Harding Admin
istratiOn.
PRESENT MOVES
BASED ON TRADE
Business Interests in
World Eager for Com
merce, Says Simonds.
ny FRANK H. sIMoNps

VIII Germany make q ulrcCb ap
peal to the United States to ipter-
vene in the present European dis
pute or will she wait for economic
conditions to ripen?
This Is the question asked at the
Capital yesterday. There Is con-
siderable expectation that there may
be the direct appeal, which would
compel the new administration to
take a stand of very clarifying
nature, but in the absence of any
indication, OF such a move, opinion
still holds that Germany will play
a waiting game.
Now that the military operation
has passed on without any prelim-
mary disturbance. IT becomes clear
that Germany will have to elect be-
tween two courses She may, as
Paris rather too confidently asserts.
surrender with little or no further
resistance. accept the terms of the
Paris conference, restated at Lon
don and wait a better opportunity
for challenging them again She
may, by contrast. continue the role
of passive resistance. defying her
enemies, but taking no overt step.
Based ON MiseaIcuIatfon.
To believe Germany will now
surrender outright is to assume
that the whole manoeuvre was
based upon a miscalculation of the
allied solidarity and that in the
presence of renewed allied unity
she will perceive her error and
abandon her open defiance. In this
case we may expect, after brief de-
lay. new overtures on the part OF
Germany for another conference
and at that conference a German
acceptance of allied terms 1t was
in this fashion that Germany, hav-
ing provoked French occupation
sof Frankfort last year. surrendered
az the later Spa conference and
, for the time, adhered quite salts
factorily to the Spa agreement. ,
But. plausible as is this forecast
there is sounder reason for believ-
ing that Germany means to con-
time her present resistance What
she is patiently gambling upon Ii
the fact that the majority of bust.
ness interests in every country ir
the world. where business inter.
ests still survive. are passionately
eager to get back to normal con-
ditions to avoid any new disturb
ances and to eliminate any dan.
gers which might lead to general
chaos, not to actual war.
To put the thing simply. Ger.
many is operating on the pocket
nerve" of business and particularly
of business in the United State.
and Great Britain. 1t is true thai
Lloyd George, with evident re.
luctance, has been compelled to gc
along with the French. So fal
German hopes have proven empty
But there has been protest anC
disapproval In England and there
is bound to be more. If the military
operation, instead of producing
swift German compliance only lead.
to new business disorders and con,
tinued German resistance. In thi.
situation the German expects hell
from British opponents of Lloyc
Georges course.
As to the United States, the Ger.
mans calculations are not different
He knows the Harding Admins.
tration Is ANXIOUS. beyond all else
to break the present economic dead.
lock, to start American products
to European markets and relieve
the situation of the farmers ant
cotton growers Much of the sue.
cess of the new administration 4.
contingent upon getting foreign
trade going again and a new crisi,
in Europe. a prolonged allied oc'
cupation OF German territory cas-
Of the . Rhine. with a possible ex
tension of that occupation still
further eastward, could only meal
continued and expanded chaos.
Playing Double Game.
In the end the German calculates
business will control policy in tn,
two Anglo-Saxon countries. Wha
is problematical is whether h
thinks the control will assert itsel
at ,once or only after some delay
IL he holds to his former view. hi
obvious course is to ask the United
states to intervene, at the same tim,
making some new gesture which
would suggest Willingness to com
ply with any reasonable allied SCI
Of terms. that is. throwing the onul
upon the character of the terms anC
avoiding a discussion of the prin
ciple of payment. itself.
Yet all Americans must perceiv,
the real direction of German policy
What the Germans are aiming a
is to escape payment, not to reduc,
the sums demanded TO a reasonable
figure. The German has established
among his own people the idea thai
Germany was not responsible for tn,
, war. He is conducting a doubl,
maneuvre. On the home front he Il
saying, I'VE shan't pay"' ON tn
foreign front he Is asserting wv
can't pay" The real extent of hi
had faith Is disclosed in the mattei
Of disarmament, where he is jus
as steadily evading compliance as il
the matter of reparation.
What the German aims at is b.
a policy of pin-pricking to goad tn
French into extreme military &C
ton, while business paralysis drivei
British and Americans into protes
against these operations as de
structive of business prosperity. n,
Is thus seeking to separate tn,
French from the British and tn,
Americans. He will presently, with
even greater assiduity, labor to pre-.
cipitate break between the Brit
ish and the Americans. To dfvid,
the allies Is his chance to escap,
the payment Of all reparations, ant
/ this is his main objective.
Thus, unless German policy suf.
fers prompt change, we are in fol-
CONTINUED ON PAGE THREE.