The Washington times., 1921-03-30
V|V|AN| URGED
TO Be EXPLICIT
"Envoy's Best Service Will Be
Frankness With Harding" Is
Hapgood's Belief.
BY NORMAN HAPGOOD.

/
When Rene Viviani sees President
Harding today, the greatest service
he can render will be to tell exactly
what France means to do about the
| German predicament.
APPEALs TO EMOTIONS.
His visit seems scarcely likely to
do much clearing UP. He Is an ora
tor, who can be enjoyed even by those
who understand no French, but he
| appeals to the motions. He can draw
| again a touching picture of bleeding
France, but there is no expectation
| that he will contribute much 20 CIV
ing US intellectual points Of the COM
pass.
President Harding has laid down
pretty nearly certain general prin-
ciples about our foreign policy, but
general principles. couched in mega
| tive form are one thing; applying
them to the first tough example that
comes up Is another.
WHAT GERMANY CAN PAY.
The German situation can be ana
| 1yzed into a few outstanding ele-
ments. According to the best equip
ped and most impartial experts. what
Germany can pay is principal OF
| from twelve to seycnteen thousand
|
over a long time. The Germ1n ex-
perts in Paris admitted ten thousand
| millions or 30. Then they began to
| blum for about seven Thousand mill
lions.
| There is no dispute in reality about
J their being responsible. under the
terms of surrender. for more than
they can pay. Fifteen thousand mil
lions would be a fair arrangement.
| Confusion has been widespread be-
cause damage by land. air and water
to the civilian population was inter-
preted<by counting discharged soldiers
as part of the civilian population,
thus apparently doubling the indem-
nifty.
| AS a matter Of fact, that method
| was taken not to increase the in
demnity, since it was already realized
that Germany's ability to pay would
fall below her proper bill, but to
influence the method of dividing the
indemnity among the various Allies.
CITES EXAMPLES.
| For example, had 1t not been for
this device, South Africa, Canada,
Hence the signature Of General Smuts
to the memorandum suggesting this
method OF computation.
| Instead Of taking . cool. intellec-
tuaI point Of view about this puxxle.
Il L. to he feared that VI. Vivisni will
| again show the wounds OF bleeding
France. That In q natural human
thing to do, but II hurts the cause
| of France.
tai and many of the moral arguments,
but 1t wants to come down to severe
| economic considerations.
The French have had their minds
fixed on an alternative, They con-
stantly say that they must have one
of two things: either safety or indem-
nifty. They maintain that Germany
is trying to cheat on the indemnity.
Therefore they threaten to seek
what they imagine to be safety in the
dismemberment or Germany. The
Germans make the mistake of think
ing this threat a sheer bluff.
| FRANCES MISTAKE.
They reason that for the French to
dismember Germany would decrease
the production of Germany and there
fore threaten the life of all Europe,
including France. That Is all true
enough, but the Germans do not al
ways remember that the French do
not think in economic terms.
Their history has led them to think
in terms of military force, and IL the
Germans do not act with reasonable
| lstraightforwardness the French are
quite capable of inflicting a punish
ment that is suicidal as well as mur-
derous.
Lloyd George realizes both the fatal
results of such a punishment and the
probability that it win be inflicted
That realization has been the whole
basis of his policy recently toward
both France and Germany.
Nobody trusts or likes Lloyd
George, and the basis of his power
is his ability to deal with such con-
fusing and contradictory facts as
press upon all the European nations
in their war settlements.
THE BRITISH POLICY.
How could Germany pay the in
demnity? Not in the ways at first
laid down. France Is now refusing
the very machinery she at first de-
manded. She is refusing it because
to take it would forever after maxi
her dependent on Germany for sup
plying the needed parts
Great Britain, that was so eager to
get an indefinite number OF ships from
Germany, is now refusing them, be-
cause she sees her own shipbuilding
industry Threatened.
|
to keep her imports down to necessi-
ties, letting in only food and neces-
sary raw materials and sending out
all she can make. absolutely giving
up imported luxuries until the indem-
nifty is paid Pre-war figures on i'm
ports and exports show that by this
method she can pay around fifteen
thousand millions.
You may say that the elements of
this puzzle have nothing to do with
the problem of an administration that
has indicated the intention of going
ahead regardless of what European
nations do. To those now in power
the procedure is no longer so simple
Putting through the Knox resolu-
tion. with French troops advancing
farther into Germany and threatening
incalculable damage, does not look to
the Republican leaders as easy as II
did.
In truth, the Administration at the
present moment Is remaining wholly
open minded on this subject, and II