The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-12-13
GOVERNMENT TELLS WHY ITS ESTIMATE WAS UNEXPECTED
Early Propaganda on Acreage Planted. and As to Amount of Carry-0ver Cotton Fig
 ured In Estimate
By Associated Press


 ceptance of growers reports of acre age reductions which were biased by propaganda and generally believed" 1" the crop reporting board of the de- partment of agriculture declared in a statement today in announcing the fi- nal forecast for this years cotton crop If S,340,o00 bales. an increase of 1,sOo,OoO bales over the last fore cast.
 Favorable weather conditions since the last condition report on Septem- l Der 20 permitted maturing of late cot- l ton, the board said, while reduction of fertilizer reported earlier in the season was offset by residue remain l ing in the ground from last year Boil weevil and other insect damage, the statement said. was not as great as expected. the hot, dry weather of the early fall hastenad the maturity l of the crop and prevented much of the damage which otherwise would have resulted.
 Data on which the acreage in cul- tivation was estimated on June 25 was correct. the statement declared when checked against data submitted 1 by the growers at the time "but it l hON 1FPChio Aifdb luG QdNS uHpH which the estimates was based were misleading and the acreage was un- I derestimated."
 Reports from statisticians of the department who were able to travel July l. indicated that reports of acre age reductions on June 25 "exagger- ateSt the reduction in acreage" the , statement said, adding that while many growers actually reduced their l n npro oil tAa Ixsa 4eer 2f 1a.o propaganda sentiment and proceeded to increase their own acreages."
 This is still the smallest crop grown in the United States since 1885," the statement asserted. In a statement issued with the gov ernments estimate today the depart ment of agriculture said:
 'The December cotton report fore casting total crop of S.340. 900 bales is much in excess of earlier estimates during the growing season. It may be we'll therefore, to explain the prin- cipal factors which account for the difference between the early promise and the last estimate
 Acreage Planted
 Acreage: CD Persistent and wide spread propaganda at planting time for reduction in cotton acreage of from 33 to 50 per cent as compared with 1920; (2) propaganda supported by large carry over from previous season. low prices below cost of pro- duction in 1920 reduced foreign con- sumption and demand with great financial loss to growers In 1920, and lack of credit at planting time; la) 1 acreage reduction reported at plant. ing time by growers affected by pro- paganda; (4) lack of travel funds pre- Vanfad cf1ffQffrforc af from personally inspecting and check ing acreage in their states in 1919, 1920 and first half of. 1921; (5) crop reporting board forced to accent growers reports of acreage reduc- tions. which were biased by prona ganda and generally believed; (6) since July l field statisticians have been able to travel and their reports Indicate that the growers reports on June 20 exaggerated the reduction in acreage. It appears that while many growers actually reduced their acre. age others took advantage of the propaganda sentiment for reduction and proceeded to increase their own acreages; CD the estimate of the acreage in cultivation on June 25 was correct when checked against data submitted by growers at that time but 1t now appears that the data upon which the estimate was based were misleading, the acreage was under estimated ana the crop reporting board was deprived of the check af- forded by personal travel and inspec- ton of field statisticians until the last half of the crop year.
 Yield Per Acre
 Yield per acre: CD Weather condi- tons were reported generally unfa- ( IrI IYae I
 over large portions of the cotton belt up until the last condition re- port as of September 25. Since that cate the weather has been better than the average for maturing and picking the crop. A large percentage Of the crop has been picked and ginned to December l than average CD A reduction of one-third in the amount of fertilizer used this sea- son Is compared with last was re- ported, This was interpreted as forecasting lower yields per acre Field statisticians now report that the residue of fertilizers remaining to the soil from last year tended tD off set the shortage in quantities used this year. (3) Boil weevil and other insect damage was not as great as expected. Weevils were present in greater numbers over wider extent of territory during the growing sea- son than ever before. However, the hot, dry weather of the early fall has, tened the maturity of the crop and prevented much of the damage which otherwise would have resulted. (4) Production; The combination of the two factors, acreage and yield per acre. gives production. For the req sons stated. acreage was underesti- mated and yield per acre has turned out better than it was possible to forecast on the date of the last condi- ton report, October 8. It may be noted that although the October 5 report forecast production much below the December estimate, it was higher than the average of trade esti- mates of that time. Acreage and yield per acre figures corrected on the basis of data available December l indicate a total crop of 5.340.00O bales of 500-pound gross weight. This Is still the smallest cotton crop growth in the United States since 1895.
 In the United States
 The yield per acre for the United States is estimated at 1869 pounds, which compares with I1s pounds fore cast on October ,. The acreage is estimated at 31.427.000 and abandon ment 2.S per cent. In July the acre age in cultivation was estimated at 26,519. .000 acres. The harvested acre age last year was estimated at 36,- SS3.000."
 The average weight per running bale is estimated at 497.8 pounds.
 The price paid producers Decem- Der 1 was S.2 cents per pound.
 Inc estimated production by states in equivalent 500-pound bales is: