The New York herald., 1921-12-11
Not Likely to Hold Out for
10.10-7 Plan for Fleet
Ratio.
BRITAIN ENDS TOXIC IDEA
Fears France and Italy, Each
With Same Sea Power as
Japan, Might Combine.
ssecsGl Despatch to THE NEW York HERALD.
New York Heraid Bureau.
n.~

washington, -. C.. Dec. 10.
That a complete agreement will be
reached before Christmas for the lirni-
tation Of the navies on a 5-5-3 ratio
was the confident belief In all quar-
ters tonight when 1t became known
that the chiefs Of the delegations are
actually at work on the text Of such
q naval treaty.
The accord with which the 'four
Power" treaty was received to-day
was regarded as making the naval
agreement much easier. since 1t pro-
vided definite assurance that the ter
ritorial integrity Of the possessions Of
the different nations would be re-
spected. This was particularly true
Of the Japanese. who have been hold
ing up the final approval Of the naval
proposals for further consideration.
High officials of the conference said
tonight that the outlook was for
complete agreement on the naval pro-
gramme within a 'very short time"
Pressed for a better estimate of the
period that might elapse. they said it
might be three days and 1t might be
three weeks. but that the chances are
better that It will be three days." 1t
was generally conceded that the
agreement would be reached before
Christmas.
Relief over Jspan's Action.
The situation was cleared up consid-
erably when It became known that the
Japanese will be willing. In the circurn-
stances, to recede from their contention
that they should have naval force that
Is 20 per cent. as large as that main
taincd by the United States and Great
Britain.
Some confusion had arisen about al.
interchange Of caplegrams between Ad-
rniral Baron Kato. the Japanese Naval
Minister. and the delegate who Is hand
ling the naval problem In the conference.
and the Toxic Government. 1t had been
supposed that Admiral Kato had asked
Toxic for instructions as to how to pro-
ceed In the settlement OF the naval issue.
This impression was corrected by those
close to Admiral Kato, who said that
such communications as are going on
with Toxic will not necessarily control
the final decision. In other words. Ad-
miral Kato came to Washington with
the fullest powers for action. but Is
anxious that such action as he takes will
be approved by the other officials OF the
Japanese Government. He Is keeping
them informed as to the developments.
asking for advice and for opinions. so
that there may be no suspicion that he
Is doing anything that Is not understood.
It is said that this sentiment In Japan
Is getting around to a place where the
5-5-3 ratio is being approved and that
L.. -
that Japan is a party to the -Four
Power treaty respecting territorial
rights. II Is said to be the Japanese
disposition to regard the new treaty as
a pledge against attack that will be
tangible evidence that the Japanese Gov
ernment is warranted In restricting the
size OF the navy to point smaller than
sought in the first instance.
Secretary Hughes Arthur J. Balfour
md Admiral Kato were in communion
Ton to-day over the terms of the naval
agreement. They had much to consider
IN the way OF detail. and II Is likely that
much more work will have to be done on
II before the plan is completed. With
the -four Power" treaty out OF the way,
after occupying much of the time OF the
discussions OF the last two weeks. they
are able to devote themselves entirely
to the naval agreement.
The treaty Is being written and agreed
10 point by point. This does not mean,
Of course, that the terms have been ac-
ccpted In entirety, but that they are
being debated as they come up. those
which have failed OF an agreement being
passed over to be taken UP later. When
these are settled. therefore, the signing
of the treaty will be expedited.
Admiral Kato and the other members
of the Japanese delegation are said to
have made it plain to the United States
and to Great Britain that they will not
stand in the way OF final agreement
even though II Is on the "5-5-3" basis.
They have attempted to convince the
Americans and the British that they
should have a navy on '10-10-7' basis,
but have been careful 10 explain that
such arguments as they presented were
not in a spirit of interrupting the pro-
gramme. but simply to insure their ma
tional protection.
Brftain's Danger From Combine.
In this contest, however. they have
been alone. for the United States and
Great Britain have stood for the $3.50"
ratio In this connection the British
position, as outlined by some who should
be aware OF all. the facts, Is interesting.
France and Italy. as is known. are to
be taken into the naval agreement and
. in all probability on a "3-3" basis that
lG. WIFI ndNleB cdCn Ot WHICH tQuhib inc
size OF Japan's. The British, consid-
ering all possibilities Of the future. are
anxious to insure a continuation of
their naval superiority in European wa
tors.
They have figured, therefore. that
possible combination of the navies OF
France and italy. on 1913" basis.
would be "6" against "5." Apparently
they are willing to take their chances
on such a thing. but they are opposed
% any increase above that ratio. such
az that which would come II the basis
were "10-10-7." In such an event. pro-
vided the French and Italians would
get navy as large as Japan's. a COM
hlnation OF European navies against the
British would be "14' against 10"
This Is said to be the underlying reason
for the British determination that the
ratio as outlined by Secretary Hughes
must not be changed
Those who have been following the
facts closely say that Admiral Kato
recognizes the force Of the British po-
sition and that the Japanese delay In
giving complete approval to the pro-
gramme is due entirely TO desire 10
unite all faseions at home.