New-York tribune., 1921-04-11

Is Under Wav.
Reports Show
Increase of 25 Per Cent in
$50 Cities for First Two
Months Over Same Period
i'm the Last Three Years

Purse string days in the building con-
struction industry are passing, accord
ing to The Dow Service Daily Building
Reports.
Factors promising far-reaching effect
upon prospective residence construc-
tion. especially, are developing that are
forcing the prospective buyer of build
ing materials to give heed to something
else besides price bottoms. He has been
sitting on the economic beach watching
the price tide going out until he has
suddenly awakened to the possibility of
the recession being caused by the sue
tlon OF influences that are making for
q great tidal wave of building material
demand.
Fundamentally the continued down.
ward price trend Of building materials
IS unsound, not from the manufac turer rs
point OF view or welfare, but from the
point OF view OF the prospective build
ers welfare. II everybody holds back
and waits for the price tide to reach it's
uttermost retlux everybody may be cx
pected to rush into the market for sup
plies when full consciousness is
aroused that the influx has begun.
The ebbing limit of building material
prices has been reached and the inflow
mas already started, but the man on
the beach does not notice the change
that is taking place.
The size of the waves appear to him
from his vantage point as about the
same size they were two months 400
Then the waves of construction were
fltful and could not be definitely classi-
fled. To-day the construction wave for
nation is capable of being distinctly
classified. 1t is easily recognized as
being habitational. This wave forma-
tion is destined to grow to a height
represented by 100000 prospective
home builders, most of whom have
been sitting on the beach awaiting the
turn of the tide. About onc-t third of
this number will have their building
projects under way before the walters
discover that the oncoming crest is of
tidal wave proportions.
Big Increase in Construction
Building construction for practically
one hundred and fifty cities in Janu-
ary and February were approximately
20 per cent in excess of the average
for the same two months in 1918, 1919
and 1920. The average for January
over these three years was approx
mately $57 ,44S,0O0, based upon Brad
streets's estimate, while that for Janu-
airy, 1921, was $58 900 The same
authority shows that the February
average for the preceding three years
was $57, 1000, whereas the national
average for February this year was
$S1 ,074000. The Dow Service compila-
tion for the first three months is S301,
$50, 900, compared with $4O1 10000 for
the first quarter of 1920, $366.S00 900
for the same period in 1919, and $12o,-
100000 for the identical months in
1918. Compared with normal" year
the first quarter of 1921 gives total
of new construction O. 1901 100000, as
against a first quarter total in 1912
of $256,600,OOO.
Had the first quarter of 1921 not
been characterized with general re-
adjustment of production costs and
market prices no one questions the
volume of construction that would
have developed with the open weather
conditions that characterized the first
three months of 1921. This volume
of construction is still to come out
architects boards indicating volume
Of building material supply later this
year that will seriously tax the scanty
mill and dealer stocks of the country.
1t is not to be assumed by the pros
pective builder that the manufacture
ers of building materials will rush to
over-production. Some of the far
sighted through the recent dull per-
iod have kept their mills going at or
near full capacity. Others have closed
their plants or greatly restricted pro
duction. Some mills have only just
begun to resume operations. Building
material dealers are proceeding just
as cautiously in their stock purchases
as are the manufacturers of building
commodities, who, in turn, are gaug-
ing their production schedules upon
the buying movement of prospective
builders who are, in turn, proceeding
cautiously.
Many Freight Cars Idle
Too much complaisance cannot be
placed upon the present dearth of
business in the transportation depart
ment. Railroads are hungry for bust
ness. They have many idle freight
cars. They also have the largest num-
Der of "bad order cars" cars that are
in need of repair, than they have had
in years. Their shops are closed.
These "bad order cars" are not being
repaired Therefore, if business should
suddenly resume, and indeed, the turn
is near, it would not take many months
to absorb the available supply of empty
LONG ISLAND REAL ESTATE