Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial., 1921-04-15
THE BUSINESS CYCLE.

man VIII deny UliS tit'Itl'iAh' " = VO
h,ar some complaints from easy times
pront makers. who moan because the
hour al tho order taker has passed. and
tho day or the salesman who must mar
KIT ms product on merit has come
arain.
Anyone who makes a brief survey Of
thus cra. and who remembers what our
assets arc. VIII bc checrcd. His own
business may be at a standstill. but he
can SEQ that the current or revived in
du-tr, soon viii sweep him along with it..
Tho Unitcd states consists Of only
nsc p,r cent ~ the worlds population.
Vt trs n>c pcr cent today holds the
haIaf... 3, power rs The basic commodi-
tI,s of IN, and industry We produce
r,t ,srt IN the worlds wheat; 50 yer
cont N the CORN C6 rcr cent Of the
cotton. S5 r,t cent ~ the oats. . per
cont ot tb, dauy products. % per cent
4. tAe vuolous 45 pcr cent of the paper
IS per cent of the glass. 66 per cent Of
ne petroleum. Sc per cent Of the cop
p,r. So pcr cent 81 the iron, a. per cent
81 thc coal. SO per cent Of the steel
rrodu, Is. and 81 per cent Of all manu-
featured articles. In addition TO all
this we possess 40 per cent Of the worlds
railroads. and 25 pcr cent OF the worlds
wealth
Europe is SLOWLY, but steadily getting
on nor financial feet Everything
Which We produce nnds market there.
Her imports are increasing from month
a. nonth-mainly from the United
s,atcs. The goods which We are selling
T. her arc even bcine carried in part
4, our merchant marine, which means
mat 5ust ,hat much money stays at
home which might 20 elsewhere.
Economic laws. which are not made
by man. are governing this return to
prosperity Tor US. one may divide the
cycle ~ business into four segnents.
which viii illustrate how these laws
ar working The first segment may
=, labelled Improvement" While this
period is on. low priced materials are
accumulated. and output or all commodi-
tics Increased.
The second segment is prosperity" "
Tie increased output is being mar
keted. more goods are being manu-
facturcd and, as the saying goes
every body's happy" Men make money
normally. and spend it generously.
Tho second cegment is prosperity"
because Of the increase in prices re
sa,tiug from an increased demand, there
II curtailment OF sales and output.
Not so many men are employed. and
those who are working must increase
their efficiency. Hard times comes
a-knockin' al the door" while this peri
cd Is passing.
The fourth and last segment of our
business cycle Is that OF "readjustment"
Efficiency OF workers has been increased:
equipment has been augmented so
that more goods may be turned out.
More men are employed. and the demand
generally increases for all products.
There IS no arbitrary time during
which We experience any OF these peri
ods. They may last for months. or
years. But generally the period Of
liquidation passes quickly. while that
OF readjustment comes in more slowly
Tho period Of Improvement IS longer.
and general prosperity is longest Of all.
except when it is an abnormal pros
perity based on an abnormal condition,
as was the wartime period. Sometimes
We sweep through this cycle within
few years. Occasionally it takes US
decade or more TO swing from liqui-
daton - liquidation
We have had . period or prosperity
an abnormal. shortened period, but
nevertheless it was prosperity. We
have swung through the day Of liqui-
dauon. That occurred last summer.
fan. and a portion of tllis winter. we
are now going through an era Of re-
adjustment, and viii shortly enter on
the road Of Improvement. which viii
lead. we believe. TO a lengthy period Of
normal prosperity All signs point
that way.
The trouble with most Of US Ameri-
cans is that we do not look beyond our
own business. When some tempo
rary furry depresses our own work. we
think that the world is going to the
eemnuon bow vows We need 10 oc-