The Washington herald., 1921-06-12

preparation for war can only begin
when French troops have retired
from the German territories now
occupied. And preparations. once Ii
began In earnests would consume a
number OF years. even II allowed to
go on without provoking reprisai.
Must Meet condssss.s.
In all human probability we are
going to have something like
quarter OF century of Franco-Ger-
man peace. In that time a German
comphance with q minimum. an
irreducibie minimum Of condition.
written into the last agreement, ID
reasonably certain. on the one side
we may expect Anglo-American In.
fuence increasingly exerted to pro.
duce this result. while on the other
we may look for the same infuenes
exerted to restrain the French from
taking an extreme step in the face
of the endless German proyocations,
which are to be expected.
But taking the next 13 years,
during which allied troops will re-
main on the German Rhine, as a
span, what may we expect of Ger
man policy in that time, what will
the Germany which has survived
the storm seek on the political side?
Obviously the first effort will be
made to escape from that position
of inequality. which weighs upon
Germany as 1t weighed upon France
after the fall Of Napoleon.
VIII Seek Place In Council.
Given the present state Of the
league Of nations IL may be doubted
whether the German will seriously
seek admittsnce. The action of the
United States in returning to the
supreme council has given that
smaller body the Importance which
1t possessed in Paris. Germany
then will seek admittance to 1t pre-
cisely as France sought admittance
to the holy alliance. And 1t Is easy
to see that At no distant date three
of the four great powers, leaving
Japan out of account as little con-
cerned in Europe, will tend to favor
such admittance. anmely, the United
Kingdom, Italy and the United
States. Granted that French oppo-
sition may prevail for a little, the
end is, think. sure and will come
relatively promptly, IL Germany for
brief time keeps faith with her
Will Try to Limit Debt.
Assuming German admission to
the group of world powers. which
will include France, Britain, Japan
and the United States, what ends
will Germany thereafter pursue?
Obviously she will seek first the
limitation of her reparations obli-
cations to the sum already fixed,
namely, s12.5oo. 900 900. That she
can hope for reduction below this
figure Is totally unlikely. but that
she may be able to prevent the ex-
pansion of this sum through the
medium of the export tax is not un-
believable, however inequitablc.
But 1t Is the political rather than
the economic phase which is imme-
diately interesting. Like Talley-
rand, the German representative in
the new holy alliance, whatever II
may be called, will seek first to di-
vide his conquerors and fnd
strength in their differences. Thus,
nothing is more likely that in most
middle European questions Italian
policy will for a considerable time
march with Germany rather than
France-while British and Italian
votes will support Germany as
against Poland. the ward of France.
Polish Question UPpermost.
And it is the Polish question
which must remain uppermost in
German minds. The first concern
Of every German statesman hence
forth must be to hnd a way to re-