Omaha daily bee., 1921-04-25

BY ALEXANDER DANA MOVES.
Chicago Tribune Omaha Eco Leased Wire.

New York, April 24.-Notwith-
standing what on the surface seemed
to be greater perplexity and uncer-
tainty than at any previous tine, the
testimony of pretty much all mar
kets last week was to the effect that
we are at least approaching, If we
have not already reached. halt i'll
the continuous reaction. The steady
pressure of forced sales and success
full speculation for the decline was
certainly checked There was no
uniformity of movement and prices
i'll almost every market would re-
peatedly change their direction, but
that very fact was evidence that, as
Wall street expresses it, there were
at least two sides to the situation.
This did not mean that there was
much in the way Of tangible occur
rences to inspire hope of carly and
aggressive recovery. On the CON
trary, the evidence of bank clear
ings, commodity prices, railway
earnings, freight "loadings," iron
production and export trade has in
dicated low ebb i'll the economic tide.
But the general run of expert opin-
ion in the various branches of
finance and industry certainly
seemed to be that, for the time at
any rate, we had seen the worst.
Feeling of improvement.
Three or four months ago the whole fl
nancial community was prophosying a
much worse condition in the near future
month ago, 1t was difficult to induce
anybody to predict anything. Last week
there was at least a feeling that matters
were quite as likely to improve as to grow
more unfavorable. The partial halt In the
general reaction OF commodity prices, the
slow but unmistakable trend toward a
more normal money situation. the testi-
mony OF foreign exchange that Europe's
economic position was not growing weaker
and the numerous evidences that the prob
lem OF wartime labor costs in peacetime
markets for the goods produced, have been
contributory influences.
But the essential fact Is that the re-
active tendencies were bound to be check ed
sometime. II only through compulsory re-
versal OF the relation between supply and
demand Tor necessaries as it existed year
ago.
A good many new considerations nat
uraily arise in such a situation.
Ihe report on our country's foreign trade
Tor March, with its exports the smallest
IN total value of any month since our en-
try into the European war (when shipping
was being diverted to transport service)
ana its surplus OF exports the smallest for
that month since 1914, has several highly
interesting aspects. From one point Of
view the decrease Is natural reflection
OF the great fall in prices.
Export Surplus Slumps.
Last months 1892 900, 900 surplus Of ex-
ports was s164,oOo.oOO less than the surplus
ea,ua1 oc March. 1920. In that month our
s2ss,ooo,ooo. But assuming the Labor de-
partment average of prices, the change in
valuation for the same quantity of outward
anu ao inward trade the export surplus, il
computed at the prices Of March. 1921.
would have been only $1ss, 800. 600.
out IL must also not be ovelooked that,
precisely as the rise in prices between
1914 and 1920 greatly emphasized the
tnonthly balance against countries with a
habitual import surplus and greatly in
creased the acquiring credit of countr,as
with habitual surplus of exports. exactly
the reverse process will apply to each in
an era of falling prices.
IN FORMER periods of trade depression
ana railing prices, this Influence against
me maintenance of an American surplus
OF exports was offset by the great re-
auction in our peoples purchase of i'm
ported goods and by the pressure of man
uiacturers to export at very low prices
such OF their products as they could NOT
sell at home But this result presumed
two contributory Influences good foy-
eign market for our merchandise and
American prices lower than foreign prices
Iano these precise advantages either w.
40 not possess at all this year, or else
enjoy only .spasmodically. The truth is
mat every foreign country is in the same
allncuity as our own, and since their pro-
aucers and consumers have been harder
nj .i5 thah ours, their imports are being
urgently.