The New York herald., 1921-02-28
Approach of Spring Greeted by
UnsettIement, Nervous
Movements i'm Doubt.
MARKETS ARE SLUGGISH
Discrimination of Public to Buy
Stocks and Bear Raids Are
Potent Influences.
by WILLIAM w. CRAIG.

I
proach TO the spring months has beer
accompanied during the last fortnight b,
unsettlement. nervous movements OF
! quotations and dubious thoughts about
the industrial future; whereas. the pc.
riod of relative stead!ness and quiet OF
stocks and commodities in the second
half OF January was thought by some
| to betoken a fairly stable situation
From the days OF January quiet proph-
cts OF the cheerful school drew deduc-
tions of an interval of market poise. tc
precede n probable rise OF securities az
ter the installation of the new Admin
istration in Washington.
Obviously. things have not shaped
themselves that way. The usually in
teresting March settlement, which fire.
quently has force in directing later con-
dltions OF money and credit in the IN
terror. arrives amid highly unstable
markets. The presence of a spot cotton
price under 12 cents pound--last July
1t was 43N cents-suggests that the
urgency of farmers bills and bank loans
has precipitated a great deal of hasty
liquidation; 1t might have been done
earlier but the producer, along with a
great many others In agriculture and
industry. hoped against hope for bet
ter market IT seems like hard times,
indeed. to reflect that cotton last week
sold lower than at any time since 1916
but the situation Is not without it's COM
pensating features. The speed of liquid
alton. whether in cotton or something
else, will determine. In part, the time
required to get business back to normal.
II adequate preparations have been
made to meet March payments on mort
cages, income tax bills and what not.
without an important strain of credit a
great deal will have been accomplished
on the way to a new prosperity.
stock Market Influences.
1t is difficult to say whether seasonal
events with particular application In
effect upon last weeks stock market 1t
may be that somc forced liquidation oc-
Cured for the sake of raising cash. but
the greater probability is that this WA.
of slight extent. With what is known
OF corporate earnings in 1920. the first
quarterly tax payment at the middle o.
March will run far less than II did a
year before. The same observation ap-
plies to personal income taxes. The
great strain in that connection. prob
ably greater than will be seen this year,
came last December. when corporations
were struggling with unliquidated IN
ventories and individuals found that ex-
pected profits OF the last quarter Of the
year had not materialized.
1t is not likely that any large amounts
Of stocks or bonds have been sold lately
TO meet taxes. II substantial sales have
come from the interior cities and towns
they have not shown themselves IN the
record of the ticker. Business on the
New York Stock Exchange has been dull
right along.
The influence more patent than forced
sales 10 raise funds has been the lack
OF public buying power in the stock
market. The force more evident than
liquidation of stocks for any reason
has been the hammering bear attack
upon issues to which attention has been
called by particular things-poor an
nual statements, low current earnings,
difficulties in raising loans. There will
come an end to this sort OF adventur-
Ing in troubled waters. The short SELL
ers during the later days of depression
In 1907 found that prices moved away
from them Unexpectedly before many
were aware that business recovery was
under way. But research of past cycles
of the market, unhappily. discioses few,
II any. true parallels to conditions at
this time. such Improvement as has
occurred in industry is yet submerged
by the weight OF Industry. which has
not begun to grow better.
Credit Condition Not TO Blame.
The expectation of excellent long
the Transportation act OF 1920 Is shad-
owed by the fact that the carriers are
crippled by difficulties OF the moment
There is no medium through which ono
may survey the present situation and
determine. by reference to events OF
other dull times, that really constructive
buying OF securities Is near at hand,
preparing to work discontinue to the
professional short seller and herald the
beginning OF new business era.
The sluggish state OF the markets can
no longer be attributed 10 the credit sit
uation. T,,src ~ n vast amount of credit
tied up In goods. Il Is true. especially
in stocks OF finished and raw materials
which arc hard TO dispose OF and in
goods sold abroad and unpaid for. But
uhc steady Improvement OF Federal Re-
serve Bank statements shows that the
tense situation OF last autumn has been
removed and Is not likely TO return
What seems to bc needed now more
than anything else TO restore industry
is complete readJustment OF prices
together with means for financing cx-
ports. with a smaller recourse to the
banks And II is difficult to see how
prices all around can be carried 10 a
point where the public will be salts
Ned with them without more general
downward revision OF wage schedules.
The wage movement Is showing al
ready considerable relaxation In Some
fields In accordance with the trend OF
living costs Outside OF textile mills the
tendency, perhaps. is not Uniform In
a,~ irdtaotrv NOR io ~ hcrou1iurr cpr-