Jackson County sentinel. (Gainesboro, Tenn.) 1914-current, 1921-09-29

Analysis Of Data Covering Century In.
dlcates We Are Now Experiencing
Series Of Alterations Of Severe and
Mild Wlnters-A Season Above or
Below Normal In Temperature Like
Iy to Be Followed by One to Three
! Just Like L.
Washington-Tha next winter win
be cold one Is the indication Of
weather data compiled by Or. o. y.
Brooks, formerly meteorologist Of the
weather bureau here, and now associ-
ate professor Of meteOrology and eli
matol0gy at Clark university.
An analysis Of the weather records
Of over century indicates that We
are now experiencing series OF al
formations Of severe and warm win
tiers. Last fall, on the basis Of his
Investigations, Doctor Brooks said that
last winter would be warm. II was.
And now he says that II is not I'M
reasonable TO expect that next winter
will he cold one, and that the win.
ter of 1929 will be a warm one.
The weather seems to be repeating
Itself. The present series of sharply
alternating winters began In 191T-1s
with the cold weather of that year.
The winter of 45 years before, 1877
70, inaugurated a series of winters
that were severe, warm, severe, warm
etc, until 1928. And 113 years ago.
Indications from incompletely kept
records are that the winter of 1e04S
began similar series of alternationa
Identical Prellnlnaries.
These two previous remarkable Sc
ries of alternating cold and warm win
tiers and the present one had almost
Identical prellminaries, Doctor Brooks
has found. All three series were pre-
coded by few moderately mild via
ters, an ordinary or moderately cold
winter, and then a severe winter,
which opened the swings up and down
In the winter temperature. The first
Of the moderate winters of the pres
ent series was 1913-14.
If the present surging Of hot and
cold winters is following the same pat
tern Of the alterations of the seven.
lies, II is expected that they will END
with severe winter In 1929.
Doctor Brooks findings are based on
weather records from New Bedford,
Mass, New York, n. T., Washington,
u. c., Cincinnati, o., and Chicago, H.,
for the present series and the alterna-
lions OF 40 years ago. The data of
the series at the beginning Of the CEN
fury were obtained from records made
at Cincinnati, o., and at New Haven.
Conn.
They seem to hold for the .whole
world, however, as he has noted that
when large changes between the char
acters of successive winters occur on
one side of the Atlantic, large ones
are usually occurring on the other side
as well. Places as far separated 40
Paris and Washington show this con-
nectiOn.
Centers Of Action.
"Such sequences Of alternating cold
er and warmer winters were evidently
the result of an cscillatory movement
Of the North Atlantic and North
American grand centers Of action Of
the atmosphere Doctor Brooks says.
That the centers If action Of the
atmosphere, or the points of high and
low pressure, shculd he intensively
studied from winter to winter to allow
successful forecasts of the characters
of winters, IS urged by Doctor Brooks.
In discussing the predictions of the
familiar non.sciehtific weather proph-
cts who periodically make long-range
forecasts of the weather of the fol-
lowing winter, Doctor Brooks points
out that American and European in.
vestigators seem 10 have established
me fact that in ordinary times u sea-
son appreciably above or below nor
maj in temperature Is likely to be fol-
lowed by one to three or more seasons
having temperature departures In the
same direction.
"Thus II may be that 'forecasters'
of mild or cold winters who rely on
some biological signs In autumn may
justly claim more than chance success,
though for reasons different from
those commonly advanced" he de-
clares. Five ont Of the seven winter
predictions which came 70 me last fall
from newspapers east of the Missis-
sippi river were to the effect that last
winter would be mild, according TO
indications afforded by birds, worms.
squirrels, muskrats, frogs, etc"
AID FOR WEATHER FORECASTS