Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1921-05-17
GUESSING CONTESTS AS
THE SOURCE OF KNOWLEDGE
Speculation About Yesterdays Aurora
5orealis Reminds Us That Science
Is Based on HYpotheses

THOSE trustful persons who think that
l. the men of science know everything
must have had their faith shaken when
they read in the newspapers that there is
no universally accepted explanation for the
aurora borealis.
What is known definitely is that the ap
pcarance of the northern lights is accom-
panied by an interruption in tcegraphic and
telephone communication The fair infer
ence from this is that the aurora is pro
duced by or produces electrical disturb
nnCes in the earth's atmosphere
Astronomers in Europe and America have
guessed that the phenomena are caused by
sun spots. But it is only a guess A com.
parison of the frequency of the appearance
of sun spots with the frequency and bril-
lance of tho northern lights has been made
over a period of hundred and fifty years or
more, and 1t has been found that in Ger
tain group of years the lights in the heavens
have CorrcSpOndcd roughly with the fire.
quencE and size of the sun spots. and that
in certain other groups of years there has
been no relation whatever between the two.
And there YOU are.
As matter of fact no one knows just
what sun spots are. GuesseS have been
made, and some are more plausible than
others. The most plausible explanation is
used by astronomers and metcorologists as "A
working hypothesis Now. hypothesis is
only big word meaning guess, and nothing
more. Yet the men of science themselves
forget this simple fact and dogmatize as
though they were basing their statements
on established fact.
We laugh mt the Oriental idea that
total eclipse of the sun happens when the
sacred dragon swallows that luminary and
that when the sun sticks in the dragon :
throat there is only Il partial eclipse. But
because our gucSseS about the nature of sun
spots and their relation to the aurora
borealis are based on what we are pleased
10 call n scientific study Of natural facts
rather than upon theological premises we
think that they deserve greater respect. And
as matter of fact they do, for they arise
from study of phenomena and do not spring
full armored from the Imagination of some
man who first invented wonder tales to eX
plain the constitution of the universe.
Just as much faith. however. is required
Of man of science as of man Of religion.
for both science and religion rest on as.
sumptions thus far incapable OF proof. Elm
stein. with his theory of relatively. has upset
some of the gueSsPS that have been accepted
FOR centuries. II is virtually impossible for
ayman to understand exactly what his
theory means. but the physicists say that it
invalidatps the NewtOnan theory of grav-
tation as the force which keeps the planets
suspended in their places.
The Ncwtonian theory explained so many
things that we had all begun TO think that
it was unshakable Indeed. Einstcin does
not ask US TO reject it altogether as work.
ing hypothesis. because he knows that his
own hypothesis is nothing but guess based
on other gueSScs.
For instance. when Einstcin tells us that
what we know as motion may be something
else he is assuming that the earth is travel
ing around the sun and that the sun is
moving around some other sun in n gigantic
orbit, and that the other sun is also moving
in space, and that when trolley car in
Chestnut street seems 10 BE- moving toward
the ferry at the rate Of two miles an hour
ITS absolute motion as measured by some
hXed point III space. assuming that there
Is such point. may be at the rate of
10000 or 100. COO miles second forward
or backward
Our Astronomical ideas were revolution
lied by the guess that the heavenly bodies
including the earth. were evolved from great
clouds of gases swirling through space
And when some one began to look at the
sun through speCtrOScope it was discovered
that the sun Is apparently COMPOSED of gases
on fire. We say that the sun is 90 900 600
miles from the earth and that Betelgpusc
the large star in the Big Dpper. is ~ 600
900 miles IN diameter. but every astronomer
knows that variation of thOuSandth Of
an inch in his measuring instruments will
produce an error of no one knows how many
million miles in his computation of distances
in infinite space. and he accepts his own
conclusions with whole barrels of salt
When "" come 10 our theories of what
has happened on the earth itself the only
body with which we are in actual contact .
We admit that they are only guesses Dar-
wins theory of evolution has apparently
explained many things 10 the satisfaction
Of thos" who do not wish anything more
definite, but when it is known that there
arc living creatures today which are dpnti-
ruI IN Structur" with the FOSSIL remains
found in thr oldest known rocks one iS
tempted ru ask when the process Of rvolu
tion began
Inc theories Of the constitution uf matIcr
a ccPted for generations. were all upset
when Madame Curic discovered radum
And yr1 th"r" is lust as much dogmatiSm
about radium and the new theories about
| the nature Of the atom and the possibility
| Of changing one substance into another as
thcr" used to be- about the nfalIibilitv Of
the atomic theory.
Bot in spite If repeated demuu>t tratlon Of
error tn" undisroura2ed human intellect
! continues to probe into the mysteries Of the