Evening star., 1921-05-22
By STUART r. WEST.

NEW YORK. May 21.-The security
markets. since the termination of the
acute strain and panic condition at
false starts on the road to recovery.
One of these came in January. the
other in April, and the characteristic
in both cases was too much optimism
regarding the immediate position in
outside trade.
These upturns have been followed
by reactions which have not in any
sense been a renewal OF the major
downward movement, but have simply
been secondary declines due to dis
appointment because business condi-
tions have not mended as fast as
looked for. and because in the after
math Of the great industrial depres-
sion Of 1920. there have come numer-
Gus cutting and passing of DIVIDENDS
which had not been sufficiently reck-
oned upon.
Trade Course Disappointing.
There is no use denying that in
certain directions the course of the
recent trade movement has been dis
appointing. The improvement in the
motor industry, about which so much
was said a month ago. which really
formed the most important incentive
for the April rise in stocks-proved
to have been nothing more than
temporary rally. In the same way
oil trade has not sustained the signs
of recovery which appeared SO prom
Using q few weeks ago.
There is a difference OF opinion as
to whether the recent price-cutting is
due to a real excess of supply over
demand or whether it is not simply
! the effort Of certain of the big oil in
terests to better their position at the
expense Of smaller rivals. But in
either event the oil business in.
which have turned the corner. has
| been set back into the uncertain
class.
Stocks Follow slump.
The stock market. following closely
these adverse incidents in theN COM
mercial situation, has undone quite a
part Of the April advance, the same
effaced by the downward turn in Feb
ruAry and March. There is no sugges-
tion. however. of Wall street getting
into any such state of mind as it was
in Ave months ago. So far as the dis
appointments in the trade movement
are concerned, they are merely a case
of hope deferred.
| The best opinion is still as strongly
! inclined as it ever has been, to look
for a more sustained and general re-
| SoVeAy dIu tltC emu OF the summer
or perhaps the early autumn. 1t is
| true that even then no uniform ad-
| vance is conceded. Steel men, for in
stance. think that while their busi-
ness may be better toward the end
of the year. no real revival will come
until the spring Of 1922.
Looks to Steels and Equipment.
Much depends for the steel mills,
and the equipment concerns as well.
! upon what sort Of wage adjustment
| Is going to be announced by the la
Dor board June 1. But barring these
and other particular instances, where
improvement may be retarded. and.
ume as whole. the prognosis is
| that with the course of the year
| things will. gradually get better and
prepare the way for a period Of COM
parative prosperity in the succeeding
expressed publicly by the Secretary
| Of the Treasury. and by others in
high places. It undoubtedly repre-
sents the preponderant sentiment
among business men: 4< y:
unpleasant incidents, such as the
passing Of dividends and the publi-
cation OF bad earnings statements
! that lies ahead, 1t still remains true
| that the darkest clouds have passed
over the head of the financial COM
| recede into the farther distance.
Year Ago Recalled.
It is worth while, in getting at a
proper mental state toward the pres
eat condition Of things. to recall the
situation of year ago. Then we
were at the peak of the credit strain
brought about by war imitation of
| output and prices. The Federal Re-
serve Board had applied the brakes.
but as yet without checking the up-
ward course of bank loans
Everybody knew that deflation must
come, and there was the gravest fear
that 1t would result in a disastrous
panic Then, too, men were talking.