The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-03-07
By THEODORE H. PRICE

Esu1tOr, commerce ma Ftn0nce.
 (Coupyright, Theodore H. Price Pub
 fishing Corp)
 New York March 6.-(Specia1) )-Sel- dom does week include two events of such importance to the worlds business as the London conference on German reparations payments and the inaug uration of new President of the United States.
 The beginning of MT. Harding's ai- ministration may be disposed of in a few words. Any specific improveme which change of policy may effect probably has been discounted. and few of our industrial leaders believe that legislation will have an important in- fluence on the fundamental course of business. Nevertheless, all observers can testify that many business men view the inauguration as the com mencement of better era, and any event which creates such confidence where it has been noticeably and un- justifiably lacking must De set down as highly favorable factor in the weeks developments.
 The outcome of the reparations con ference, in so far as it may be predict ed at this writing, is in effect an entry on the opposite side of the worlds ledger. Germany is defiant and clearly has much more to gain than she can possibly lose by protesting against the indemnity payment of 22s, 900, 900, 900 gold marks fixed by the allies. Her counter proposal has been rejected, and though another offer is expected, the difference between the two viewpoints is so great that there appears little likelihood that 1t will be bridged or that an extension of the occupied zone in Germany can be averted, involving added expenditure by the allies and further postponement of payments, which they badly need.
 FOREIGN CONDITIONS
 The European exchanges strangely enough, have advanced in the face of this uncertainty. Sterling sold at $3.90h on Friday, compared to $3S6k week previous. The dullness and the downward tendency of both European and American stock markets are to be attributed partly to other causes. The effect of the continued unsettlement on the outlook for foreign trade, however, is serious. and is emphasized by the unexpected slowness with which sub- scriptions to the s100,000,00 Foreign Trade Financial corporation, organized under the auspices of the American Bankers association, are being received. The delay in the rehabilitation of Eu- rope, which is %he fundamental cause of the decline in our January imports to s209, 900, 900, compared to s474, 900, 900 in January, 1920, has made the task of the promoters doubly hard, and the support they have received has not been as great as the value of foreign credit to the whole country entities them to expect. This word is inserted in the hope that it may persuade some of those who are curtailing production of goods which the world badly needs to lend their support instead to the opening of foreign markets.
 Our export trade has been, astonish- ingly well maintained, but the recent drop in our imports is monous The January export excess of $446,000,0o0 is more than our customers can continue indefinitely to liquidate through pri- vate credits or through the invisible means of payment represented by ship ping and insurance services, remit tances from the United States to for eign countries and expenditures of Americans abroad. The decline in our trade is represented strikingly by the increase in the number of idle steel cargo boats of the shipping boards fleet to 492 If the 2SS wooden ships withdrawn from trade some months ago are added the total becomes more than half of the entire government owned fleet.
 BUSINESS TIMID
 Although the public still seems to lack courage to take advantage of the many bargains in the securities mar kets. and in consequence they con- tinue more responsive to bad news than to good, I have observed no reason to change my view that business is the upgrade and should become steadily better. For one thing, the machinery and tool trade is improving, sure forerunner of increased activity, and the New York manager of the West inghouse Electric and Manufacturing company says that the planners of in- dustrial expansion are busy making calculations and estimates which are turning into inquiries and eventually will become orders Plants are increas- ing operations throughout the great lakes district. The New York market continues flooded with an unusual number of buyers who, while conserva- tive in their purchases, report that the outlook in both the west and south ap- pears more hopeful. Western dry goods jobbers are pressing eastern manufacturers of fabrics for immediate delivery, indicating that the retailers shelves are bare, and the federal re- serve boards trade figures so far avail able indicate that though Januarys sales were slightly below last year in dollars, the decrease in stocks hereto fore noted continued throughout the month.
 Following the successful opening of seb- eral of the American Woolen company's. fall lines a fortnight ago other lines have been offered at prices which, though third lower than year ago, are 5 to 10 cents a yard higher than recent open market quotations. Of the earlier offer ings one line of dress and cloak goods has been sold up to capacity and with drawn. The Cotton Finishers' associa- tion reports that stocks held by it's mem- bers are decreasing rapidly. Raw cot ton last week dropped sharply to the lowest it has reached since the war time slump middling cotton selling at 10 l0c in Dallas. In New York at leasy it's cheapness was quickly recognized. and from severalSof the cotton exchange houses learned that inquiries for infor- nation as to it's investment possibilities are coming in from individuals and com panies who have not been in the mar ket for months.
 SOUTHWEST STRONG
 Steady improvement is reported from the automobile centers. J. G. Culbertson, president of the Wichita Motors company, of Wichita, Tex, wrote me last week as follows: Business conditions are steadily improving and I believe that March ana