New-York tribune., 1921-12-10
Forts
Likely to Stay
In Statu Quo
U. S. Willingness Not to
Extend Fortiications Is
Paving Way for Japan
to Accept 5-5-3 Program
Won't Apply to Hawaii
None of Manila and Guam
Defenses Now Are Worth
scrapping, Experts Say

"@AoAAAA> " IL ON, Dec. (by Inc AS
sociated Press. ).-There is strong in
tlmation that the question of Pacific
island Notifications and naval bases
will be settled by the Washington con-
ference on basis that existing forts
and naval facilities be not extended
Whether an informal understanding to
this effect already has been reached
has not been disclosed.
1t is apparent that the trend Of opin-
ion in American circles is toward such
status quo solution and it seems
likely that knowledge of this feeling in
the American group is helping, to pave
the way for Japanese agreement to the
5-5-3 naval ratio.
The Japanese have attached great
Importance to the question of Pacific
fortifications and naval posts of the
United States, far more than their
present condition warrants in Ameri-
can military opinion.
United States Forts Held Weak
Casual inquiries in military circles
develop strong impression that many
army and navy experts regard the de-
fenses of Guam and Manila as of little
practical value, and, SO far as facilities
for handling big ships go, they do not
exist among American Pacific possess
sions.
Still, the Pacific fortifcations have
become something of a political ques-
ton in Japan. There have been move
ments there for an agreement with the
United States to dism antle island forts,
or, failing that, for a joint obligation
fo~ g
1t S certain that the American con-
ference group will not agree to any
scrapping of Pacific Notifications.
There is no intention to surrender what
has been done, largely because there is
no threat toward Japan or any other
power IN the fortifcations that have
been set up. They are held to be pure
ly defensive, and not even of sufficient
extent to act as a shelter for fleet op-
erations.
Could Invest Manila in Two Weeks
Just how much of task it would be
to defend the Philippines against land
ing operations, lacking a feet in
fnlilPplne waters, is matter of con-
troversy in army circles Much has
been said of the possibility of keep
ing an enemy at arms length with air
craft and submarines, but that issue
mas not been decided. 1t has been
established by army maneuvers, how
ever, that SO far as any existing apen-
cles OF war go Manila could be in
vested in less than two weeks and the
notifications of Corregidor Island, at
the mouth of Manila Harbor, reduced
within very short time. The army
has actually dropped she'll or two
into the fortifications itself to satisfy
the minds of experts on the point.
To provide adequate defenses for
Manila, which would justify the con-
struction there Of drydocks and other
equipment sufficient for primary
naval base. oficelb argue that it would
take enormous expenditures in main
land fortlfications to supplement the
island batteries. No proposal for such
work has ever been made by the govern
ment to Congress. The only other meth
od OF defense would be to establish a
heet permanently in the Philippine wa
eefs' winch has never been attempted.
Much the Same at Guam
The situation is regarded as much
the same at Guam. To make the island
real naval base would cost hundreds
OF millions of dollars, it is said. and
the government Vhas never proposed
such an undertaking to Congress.
Ddaeu on TINS estimation of the
present conditions of Pacific fortifica-
tions, many officers feel that an agree
ment with Japan not to increase ex-
isting establishments is entirely pos
sible, to cover the Philippines. Guam.
zap and other outlying points. It
would not, it is said, cover Hawaii
in any case, as that is in reality an out
post of the United States itself and
point in the defensive triangle of
the Pacific Coast naval problem.
The Notifications at Pearl Harbor or
elsewhere in the Hawaiian group would
De supplemented by operations of the
Pacific fleet in war and there ia no
doubt among the experts of the abil-
ity of the United States to hold them
against any enemy.
Because they are defensive and a
part of the mainland defense system
it is believed that the American dele
cation would reserve the right to
fortify Hawaii to any extent it might
seem desirable to the government
Japan hardly could view the work az
! a threat to her own security. it was
said.