New-York tribune., 1921-11-27

do not think there is any field, either
for the speculator or the investor, tlat
compares so favorably as New York
real estate. am beside myself W en-
] see people rushing off to the support
OF schemes which hold out vague prom
ises of profit.
Every two years there is a new group
of ticker gazers in Wall Street Tie
stock records of the previous two years
will explain the passing of the previous
group. The stock market is alluring,
there is no doubt about that; profits
come quicker generally than In real
estate; but the trouble with the former
gains is that they do not stick. A man
is rich for day, week or month.
Then something happens. The Presi-
dent makes q statement that is not &C
cepted with favor by big business, or
there is financial difficulty in Europe
or there is something else. What is
the result? Stock valuations drop and
drop SO that the profits to ones credit
yesterday, though they may have
taken months to acquire, are wiped out.
During the business depression Of
the last year and half stocks went to
pieces. Did real estate lose value?
Not to my knowledge. If anything,
values moved up. | do not expect that
real estate values will come down
There are reasons to support the be-
lief that they will go to higher levels,
and sooner than many Of US expect.
New York; has not stopped growing
There is still big demand for real
estate, and do not remember the time
when there was not demand for New
York property. We have had slack
periods, but even in those times there
was a demand for certain classes OF
realty
Rents Are Coming Down
do not expect the present scale cf
FONTS to continue. Neither do think
that rentals in New York will ever go
back to the scale of before the war.
for the reason that the cost Of produc-
ing housings is higher now than before
the war. believe statistics will show
that wages and the cost of construction
have retained part of the increases that
came during wars. It cost more to
build after the Civil War than before
It. and the same is true of the Spanish
War. For these reasons we may ex-
pect building costs to remain higher
than before 1914.
Rentals may drop from 10 to i5 per
cent from present levels. but main
tain that real estate still will be y
very profitable investment and good
speculation. I have come to the con
clusion that apartment houses are good
buys, particularly those erected dur,
ing the period of low construction ia
costs. / have been out of the resi-
Dental field for some time, but sftel
watching the market for a year and
half have entered the apartment
house. field.
The shortage Of housing is over, or
practically at an end, so that current
rentals are not based go much on the
scarcity Of residential space as on the
cost Of reproduction.
Good Future for Land
The need for building sit. has been
advanced by the shortage of homes and
the campaigns that have been started IN
many sections to supply the shortage.
have been buying sites in good loc2-
tfons, for l am sure that builders are
going to be much more active in the
next year than they were last year.
Easier money is one reason why build
ers will be more active. | expeet 10
see 51z per cent money after the first
of the year, which, in my opinion, is
going to help the vacant property mar
ket as well as the improved proper
field.
Financial institutions are showing
better feeling toward real estate ard
the real estate men. Money is coming
into the market for placement in real
ostrte because capital has once more
been shown that real property is the
most substantial of investments. Dur
..s the war money had more value 80
its owner in other fields, but with tls
tide the other way real estate is agaia
the old standby.
I do not favor investment in resl
estate because / am in the real estate
business, but because think that il y
4 full of opportunities for making none