The Washington herald., 1921-01-04
When faith is lost, when honor dies
The man is dead!
Whittier.
Wheat Crop Estimates.

II
4 Of the Agricultural Departments wheat crop
reports "inexcusable" We have letter
from Leon NJ Estabrook, chief of the Bureau
of Crop Estimates, giving the cause of the mac
@racy.
: Mr.. Estabrook first notes that these reports
az to acreage planted and yields are estimates and
net inventories" AS estimates also, that they are
pite different from those of architects contractors
sd engineers, these having bases definite speci-
feations and no figures can be assembled to check
o. test the accuracy of grain estimates.
8 He notes that the area sown to winter wheat in
1910 was estimated as $4,000 acres as compared
TO 5oy4Soooo the previous year. That in the spring
% 1920 the weather was unfavorabe, "the farmers
I3ssimistic" and "in May they reported an average
abandonment of nearly II per cent leaving 34I6s,-
oso acres to be harvested"
: In Kansas, grasshoppers week or ten days
&fore harvest "cut off the heads of grain which
frll to the ground, spouted and grew" This
acreage was estimated at from 100000 to I5oo,-
Coo acres and full allowance not made for this
yseld as it was not expected.
: Mr.. Estabrook further says that the weather
Improved and in June, July and August was ex-
csptionably favorable, 50 that in August the yield
was estimated at SO bushels which was the last
estimate until December IA.
3 In December the Crop Reporting Board met
add it was then apparent that the percentage Of
acreage planted in the fall OF 1910 had been much
underestimated and had not been ascertaned by
the field statiscians because of their inability to
travel and make personal observations through de-
creased appropriations"
: That this underestimate was largely due to
the psychological situation in the fall of 1910"
srnong the farmers; that the seif-sown wheat in
Kansas had not been added to the planted acreage;
that the yields slightly less than the August
eEimates, the later estimates being based on
ACTUAL returns.
So the board issued its revised estimates on De-
cember "a, making the total acreage 41757ooo
acres; lowered the percentage Of abandoned acres
fpm II9 to 9.54 per cent, and revised the average
Yield from I5,6 to 1853 bushels. This gave total
yield of 577,763ooo or increase of 100000
Bushels.
r With all sympathy for the undoubtedly made
quate appropriation. available for the Departments
estimates, it is to be noted that this confirms The
Heralds original claim that deviation in the
acreage harvested OF almost 100000 acres, or
about 30 per cent of the winter wheat acreage,
should be known and advised to the trade imme-
diately after harvest and almost half - year
AFTER harvest results should be known.
Also, it is disturbing to note that crop estimates
90 which important commercial tendencies are
based should thus be explained subject to error
because of the psychology of the farmer both at
seeding time and at harvest time, particularly as
hat farmer is interested party in the market
effect of information explained as originating
with himself
= The department should either abandon report
ing altogether leaving the field to private agencies
publicly explain with every crop estimate that
their facilities inadequate and the information
therefore not complete trustworthy, or, better
yet insist adequate appropriation for accurate
reporting
, In view OF the importance of the crop estimates
ID this prime crop Of wheat, the department might
well consider in the event of an inadequate appro-
priation eliminating the estimates on other crops
ahh perfecting organization report wheat more
sseurately.
Mr.. Estabrook must also appreciate the fact
that all government reports and estimates are popu-
lsrly held especially accurate. In the public
mind anything that comes directly from the gov
senment is held in almost supersttious s~regard as
tx its correctness.
> This is a valuable asset and it should be con-
sesved. IT would, therefore, be better to attempt
les, do whatever is undertaken in a way to merit
this popular opinion and, based on that exactness
ask Congress, not for funds on a record of
hzccuracy in much, but to extend the exactness of
what is done to other subjects.