New-York tribune., 1921-11-29
British Expect
Early Approval
OF Naval Cuts
BRAND Can Block American
Plan, but London ENJOYS
Believe He Will Not Use
Power Against Agreement
Bv p w. Wilson

By P. w. Wilson
For years American correspondent oI
! "7'he London Daily Neses" end former
| Member Of Parliament.
Copyright. 1921, New York Tribune Inc.
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2S.This week
the armament limitation conference
must weather its most critical period.
It is not expected that there will be
anv plenary session, but the commit
tees will be hard at work, and, accord
| ing to present ancticipations, bar
gain will have been struck over naval
armaments before many days OF De
cember have passed. Presumably, II
will be this compact between the naval
powers that will be announced when
! the conference again sits in public.
Such session might take place next
week. No word has been received as
| vet respecting Mr.. Lloyd Georges
voyage. but the British delegation
learns unofficially that M. Viviani ex-
poets to sail for France about the
middle of December.
Between the various delegations diff
ferences undoubtedly have arisen. but
the tone in British circles is optimis-
tic, and the optimism seems to be
entirely sincere. Broadly, the argu-
ment is that the differences are no
more than we're from the first ineyita--
Bile and that tESy are simply the usual
haggling in the diplomatic market. A
more detached way of putting it would
be, perhaps, that there are enough
differences to wreck the conference if
people want it wrecked, but not
cess if success is honestly desired.
We may rest assured, then, that over
naval armaments, at any rate, the COM
mittees will devote themselves to in
tricate formulas and complicated COM
parsons. The arithmetic will be fear
full and wonderful rather than destruc-
tive.
Perhaps I may mention the chief
issues that have emerged. Japan wants
her timbers are sadly shivered over
the loss of her great battleship, the
Mutsu, which Mr.. Hughes has con-
signed to the international junk heap.
1t may be that there are here the ma
terials for q compromise which will
enable the Japanese to go home with
the boast that they saved their Mutsu.
After all, the Mltsu will not very much
matter if the percentage of so to 100
is retained. We have to realize that
these negotiations are game, and
that each player is allowed to hit at
least one home run. l have no doubt
at all that on the main questions
Japan will come to an agreement with
the other powers.
Britain also has prepared her for
mulas. She accepts Loyalty and COM
pletely the one-power standard, by
which is meant equality Of tonnage
with the United States. She stands
+bo J1nitoJ Stotoc II, rocicfiocr n
larger percentage of tonnage for
Japan. What Britain fears is the sub
marine. She is inclined to ask
whether disarmament at sea is of
much use if it merely means that naval
warfare is driven beneath the surface.
Faced by the argument that the subma-
rine is the weapon of the small nation,
Britain asks how that can apply to
Switzerland, to Hungary and other
inland states, and she also. inquiries
whether submarine warfare OH peace
ful commerce, as deadly for neutrals
as it is for beligerents, can be de-
Tended on any grounds.
Great Britain makes no secret Of the
fact that submarines, whether large
or small, mean for her loss of nation
al security. None of Germany's u
boats were Of any considerable size.
A defensive submarine has for Britain,
therefore, no meaning. Every foreign
submarine near her coasts, whatever
its tonnage, can be used to attack her.
Moreover, Britain is bound to recog-
submarines disappear, the only poten-
tial fighting vessels on the high seas
will be merchantmen, of which she has
q preponeerance. She argues here that
there is no reason in the nature of
things why she should have this pre-
ponderance, that any other nation can
build merchantmen to compete with
Britain's tonnage, and that it is neither
unreasonable nor illogical that the in
fuence of nation on the ocean should
vary automatically with the volume of
its navigation. Also it is contended
on behalf of Britain that every liner
launched in her shipyard means not an
inducement to war but q hostage to
peace.
The formula 5-b-3 is. then, salts
factory to Britain. Put she has al.
ways assumed that France and Italy
will make it possible for her to ratify
these figures. In. very real sense
therefore, naval agreement between
: depends upon the attitude of M
BRAND when he reaches Paris. /
} would be in the power of France t.
prevent the agreement being reached
At present there is no likelihood O
France acting in this way. That a
: least is the information in British
r circles. But there is none the less
real hope that friendliest relation
S between London and Paris may be re
stored. 1t is clear that difference
over one matter may affect other mat
ters apparently unconnected with it,
{ poI.oo E.cs~s ~ e.