New-York tribune., 1921-12-18
Take Step Now
If You Plan
Country Home
Conditions in Westchester
Argue Jump in Values and
Overwhelming Demand
for Homes of Every Type
By Albert w. Lockyer

Secretary Of Prince & Ripley, Inc.
The first sure sign of an active
spring in the suburban real estate field
is not robin, but speculator. He
comes long before the robins appear;
IN fact, he is in evidence in noise
less, unassuming way right now, while
the average man is wrapped up to his
ears in his big winter overcoat and his
wife is wrapped up in the annual
Christmas shopping campaign. BY the
term "speculator" / do not necessarily
mean a millionaire or trust or pro
fessional trader. Westchester County
is comparatively free from any of
these. ! refer rather to the individual
who has small amount of capital and
a large amount of foresight, who buys
one or two houses or small parcel of
land en- the edge Of an upward swing in
realty values. In a sense any one who
buys a suburban house in these winter
months is speculator, because he is
taking advantage of dull period pre-
ceding a period which is certain to be
active; he is buying in advance of the
market and is therefore specializing on
the outcome.
Every year in Westchester County
there occurs three distinct waves of
buying. The first wave, and the small
est, comes through the buying of the
so-called speculator in December and
January, almost Immediately after the
fall market has subsidized. The second
wave is caused by the local residents
in the different towns buying for their
own occupancy. They see the trend of
the market quickly and buy in the very
early spring, during February and
March. And the third wave, the largest
comes from the outsiders, who usually
wait until April and May. Invariably
the last group will pay profits to the
first and second groups.
Buy More for Profits
1t is my opinion that this winter and
early spring offer the most advan-
tageous time to buy suburban real es-
tate for profit since the winter of
191S'19. l do not say this without
sound reasons. ! have carefully stud
led the various factors which bear on
the market, and there is only one logi-
cal conclusion. The fact that the
speculator is more active now than he
has been for two years strengthens my
theory.
Here are some of the facts which
are vitality involved and which must
be considered in determining the flu
ture market for Westchester real es-
tate.
First in Importance is building. In
fact, building is really the key to the
whole problem. Since the peak of
building costs in the fall of 1920 the
average decline in the cost of subur-
ban house has been from 20 to 25 per
cent, and during the last month or two
there has been practically no change.
Some materials have receded slightly
and others have countered this by ad-
vancing in price. Now, if these ma
terial prices are holding firm right in
the face of seasonal slack, is it logi-
cal to assume that they are going to
drop in the spring, when the demand
will be the greatest in years? Build
ing labor in the suburbs is just abou,
absorbed right now, and in some cases,
masons and plasterers, there is extreme
shortage and premiums are being paid.
Is it logical to assume that this
strongly organized union labor is go
ing to drop in its daily wage when the
enormous spring building wave is un-
der way?
Demand for Land on Increase
The spectcr which is looming up in
the suburbs is an overdose of building.
The fear is that labor will again be
had only at premium and cons.-
quential drop in efficiency; that con
tractors will be swamped with work
and hold out for large profits, and that
these things will again check the nor
as it was checked before. | believe
that the wise ones are building their
homes now, while labor and materials
are to be had, and while contractors
are eager for work. The man who
starts his house in late spring will by
no means be as sure of these things.
Many people have their plans all
ready to build. They have bought or
are buying sites. This has created the
greatest lot market that Westminster
has witnessed for years. Sections
which have been dormant for years
are opening up and values rapidly ad-
vancing. have in mind as typica]
of this condition a section of White
Plains where last July lotN 1O0x1OC
might be purchased for $500 or $500
they are selling to-day for $1,5OO and
$1,000, and in April will bring $4,000
1t Is, therefore, certainty that land
values will increase between now and
spring.
But how about the market for houses
which are already built? Here is what
VIII hoppen: Mr.. Jones, who has plans
an drawn for dandy house, will buy
MS plot. He will then get figures on
building his house. He will be startled
lie has heard SO much said about the
crop IN building costs that he has ex-
aggerated the extent of the drop in his
own mind, and his bid will make him
tn'nk that there has been no crop at
ALL. He will then go to his banker or
proker and say that he must have a
larger loan, which he may or may not
receive. At any rate, the loan will cost
nm more. He will not find contractors
scrambling to get his job, they will
nave so many other sure things to
figure on.
What will he do? He will take =
Saturday afternoon off and see if he
can buy house cheaper than it will
cost him to build. He, together with
ms neighbor who believes in the
theory of letting the other fellow build
and then buy, will create much larper
demand for the ready-built houses than
Westchester County will be able to
supply from present indications.
Hence the advance in price OF the al
ready constructed house.
Buyers for 1000 Houses
wish that / could see between three
thousand and four thousand houses
ready for buyers in the spring West
chester could easily absorb 1000 houses
between $4,000 and $4,000 and 900
between 100000 and $4,000, and per
haps 500 or more over $4,000, during
H.. ~ts,r~ -: