Orleans County monitor. [volume] (Barton, Vt.) 1872-1953, 1921-11-30
THE POTATO MARKET
Farm Management Demonstration
Discusses Best Time to Sell.

"Potato prices are ordinarily high
when there is a short crop and low
when we have an production.
Data available on the potato crop
since 1866 shows this to be true," says
II. P. YOUNG, farm management dem
oAstrator at the college of agricul-
ture, University Of Vermont, who has
recently been making a study of po-
tato prices. Not only are prices high
er when the crop is short but they
rise from October to May. When
there is an over production, on the
contrary, prices are lower and they
decrease from fall to spring.
There have been 18 years since
1866 when potato crops have been
over six per cent. short, and every
one of these years has shown de-
cided increase in prices from October
to May.
For 10 years, the crops have been
within seven per cent. of normal and
IL of these years have shown slight
rises in price, three years very little
change, and five years declining pric-
les from fall to spring.
In the other Is years since 1866
the potato crops have been very
large. Three years, however, OF
these 18 years have shown no par
ticular change, three have shown a
rise from fall to spring, while IL OF
| them have shown decline in price.
A most interesting point one may
observe from studying these figures
is that there is tendency for a
large crop one year, and a small
crop the next and then another large
crop and so on. The reasons for
this may be illustrated by a study of
! the last three years. In 1919 the
crop was small and potatoes sold
we'll, in fact for as high as 81 and SIS
per bushel in the spring of 1920.
Many men were attracted by these
| high prices and as result very
large crop was raised in192O. Every
one knows the result. Potatoes at
planting time the next year sold for
from 25 cents to SO cents per bushel.
No one was particularly attracted by
those prices and as a consequence
| this year there is another short crop.
When it comes to selling potatoes,
growers tend to do as it would have
paid to do the year previous. When
ever a grower has sold his potatoes
early and then watched the price go
sell, he is apt to decide never again
to sell early. Such year was 1917.
| In 1920 most men held again lost
out. -
| What are farmers doing this year
The Market Reporter for October Is
| gives the carload shipments of po-
tatoes up to October LIST for the last
four years. In 1918, $4,000 cars
had been shipped. In 1919, $4,000,
while last year 1920 when the crop
was very large, and it would have
paid to sell early, only $4,000 car
loads had been shipped by October
| LIST. Most of the crop was held for
the rs cent price last spring. This
year when, according to October LIST
Crop Reporter, the crop appears to
be short, it might pay to hold. Most
growers, however don't think so, for
| up to October LIST, $4,000 carloads
had been shipped, compared with 49,
900 last year. The week ending Oc-
tober 9Th, 10000 carloads were ship
ped, compared with 1000 last year
and the week ending October Is,
5000 compared with 5000 last year.
| 1t seems that most men do not in
tend to be caught next May with any
| % cent potatoes on hand, and of
course no one knows for sure, but it
might seem worth while, in view Of
what has happened in other short
crop years, to wait till the Novem-
/ Der Crop Reporter comes out with a
later and more accurate estimate.
Then, if the crop still is estimated to
! be very short, one might wait to adj
vantage for the final estimate in De-
cember This year, potatoes have
been shipped so rapidly that the price
has taken a decided drop so that po-
tatoes have been sold at about dol
lar in Boston and New York. If the
crop is short, as computed, this is a
rather low price.
The computed normal crop for this
year is about 415 million bushels, in
dicating a 1870 shortage and the
shortest crop we have had since 1916.
Anyone especially interested in the
complete figures on the prices for 55
years, since 1866, may secure the
same by writing to the extension SER
vice, University of Vermont and
State Agricultural College, Burling-
ton, Vermont.