The New York herald., 1921-12-02
TEN YEAR STOPPAGE
FOUND NEQUIY.ABLE
Experts Say Scheme Would
Work to Alternate Disad-
vantage Of Nations.
NEW PLAN rs SUGGESTED
General Principle to Be Re-
tained, but Method of Car
rying 1t Out Changed.
BY A. MAURICE Low.

Correspondent Of the London Morning
Special Despatch to THE New YORK HERALD.
New York Herald Bureau,
Washington, ID. e.. Dec. 1.
Is naval holiday for ten years an
idealistic conception but a practical
impossibility? British and American
delegates and their technical advisers
have regretfully come to the con-
however, need not cause apprehension
or lead to the belief that Mr.. Hughes's
magnificent aspiration must be aban-
doned, but it does mean there must be
considerable modification In the plan
as originally proposed by the Amcri-
can Government
The notifications do not affect the
principle agreed on in regard to capt
tai ship tonnage. In the working out
the calculations on the basis of the
Hughes proposals it was discovered
by our experts that if no ships were
built for ten years, the full term of
the naval holiday, in 1882, when the
first requirements are allowed, Great
Britain would be privileged to build
twelve ships Of $4,000 tons each, that
being the maximum for capital ships
OF the latest design and embodying the
newest inventions.
At that time the United States would
have the right to lay down four ships
and Japan one. The reason Great Brit
DIN secures this advantage is that new
81 ips may be built only 10 replace ex-
isting vessels twenty years old and as
the British ships are older than the
American. the majority of British re-
placements will take place long in adj
vance OF the American.
British First Superior.
Hence If the American plan should be
carried out. In 1884, allowing two years
for construction, instead OF the British
and american navies being on an equal
ity, which WAS the purpose designed by
Mr.. Hughes, the British navy would be
so vastly superior, not In the number of
ships. but In design and improvement.
that there would be no comparison be-
tween, the two navies. which. of course,
Is the last thing that Mr.. Hughes or
any other American intended. The bal
ance would be redressed some six years
later. when, as the older American ships
are replaced with the new vessels, dom
nance would pass from the British TO
the American navy, and that strength
would iuctuate at periods of from five
to ten years so long as the agreement
continued.
That discovery was Immediately called
to the attention OF the American dele
gates, who, after careful study. agreed
with our own conclusions.
The proposal now under consideration,
which I have good reason for saying
will eventually he adopted. is that in
stead of there being complete cessa-
sion of building for the next ten years,
the nations shall be allowed TO build
two ships in every three years which
would not affect the aggregate capital
ship tonnage, but would correct that
fluctuatng preponderance which states
men as well as professional men regard
as dangerous and impractical. BY al
lowing two ships to be built every three
years a moderate amount of employ
ment would be provided for skilled ar
tisans and the expense OF maintaining
idle yards and paying subsidies would
be appreciably lessened In fact. in
stead OF the proposed Arrangement in
creasing the tax burden, II would be
lighter than II the full naval holiday
was put into effect.
Japan Causes No Worry.
So far as Jspan's apparent stubborn
determination to insist upon battle
ship ratio OF 10-l0-7, instead of the
American formula OF 5-5-s, among the
delegates there is not the slightest un-
casiness Japan. say the foreign dele
gates. wants to save the Mutsu and nat
urally she will fight for II. japan does
not want to see the American posses
sions in the Pacific fortified and be
forced to match gun for gun and fur
ther expand her military budget. Men
who have taken part In moro than one
diplomatic negotiation admire Japanese
strategy. but are not alarmed. Can
Japan, they say. afford 10 stand out
against the conscience OF the world and
estrange both England and America"
They say the question needs no answer,
but they concede there Is plenty OF time
and much opportunity for skilful bar
gaining.