New-York tribune., 1921-02-20
Immediate Overthrow of
Premier Is Certain I'm
less He Wins Recogni-
ton of French Claims
Poincare Is Ready
To Take His Place
Change Would Result i'm
Early Invasion of Ger
many ON Huge Scale
BY Ralph Courtney
Special Cable to The Trfb,nre

p PARIS, Feb. 19.--Premer BRAND de-
parts tomorrow for London to take
part III events which may rank equal
in Importance to those which preceded
the beginning of the war, in the sum-
mer of 1914. 1t now seems probable
that the Allied leaders in conference
beginning Monday will put the prob
lens of the Near East in the hands Of
commission Of experts and then start
the discussion with Germans on the
problems of reparations. The leaders
of the Berlin government already are
expecting that these negotiations will
lead to rupture.
Parliamentary opinion here is that
France has gone as far as she posi-
bly, can toward meeting Germany on
questions of disarmament and settle
ment of the war bill From now on
France is paying the most attention
to events which may come if Germany
resists the Allied demands.
1t is said that a secret decision has
been reached by members of the French
Senate not to support Premier BRAND
much longer, even if he returns mod
erately successful from the London
conferences. If he fails to obtain the
satisfaction which France demands his
overthrow will be immediate and com
P!ete. 1t is generally believed that
Poincara will then take Brands place
leading, it is anticipated, to an i'm
mense invasion of Germany.
Would Cut OFF South Germany
Starting from Frankfort, the French
would cut south Germany from the
north. occupy Baden, Wurtemberg
and Bavaria, and, carrying the French
line to Czecho-Slovakia and through
Czecho-Slovakia, link up to Poland
Poland simultaneously would take
Silesia. On the Rhine France possibly
would invade the Ruhr, or at least cut
traffic in that region by the occupation
of strategic points.
Up to 8 o'clock tonight no notifica-
tion had reached the French govern
ment that the United States intended
to withdraw its army from the Rhine,
although this move is anticipated. The
French already have made every prep
aration for taking over the bridgehead
in the event of American withdrawal
AS far as France is concerned. the
sooner this action is taken the better.
The American electives at Coblenz are
not sufficiently numerous to require an
extra draft on the French military,
and from the political point of view
there makes the application of the
Paris sanctions difficult. This is par
ticularly true if the sanction to seize
customs is applied.
A sudden decision to transfer the
German customs frontier to the Rhine
would necessitate negotiations with
Washington to get the United States
to cooperate. If America refused it
would be necessary to build a customs
frontier around the area occupied by
American troops, thereby economically
inclosing them within the German
Empire.
Action Waits for Harding
Whatever America may decide, it is
Frances intention to make no new
moves to show her friendship toward
the United States until the new Ad-
ministration has taken office in Wash
ington. 1t is possible that when Mr.
Harding assumes Office the Allies will
address a joint message to him from
London, inviting him to declare his at
tlIuue VI " dppolHt d uelCSdCS w oiI
with the Supreme Council.
The retirement of r. w. Boyden
from the reparations commission leaves
little mark on this body, because for a
long time he has taken no active part
in its work. The French regret his de-
parture, chiefly because of the encour-
agement which it feared this act will
give the Germans in their desire to re-
sist the Allies demands. President
Wilson's alleged desire to withdraw
from European institutions in order to
leave the decks clear for the next Nd
ministration is considered in some
quarters, on the contrary, as intended
to hamper ardings future action by
severing his connections with Europe
The Reparation Commission is busy
completing its final accounts on the
German indemnity, which must be dis
patched to the Berlin government be-
fore May i. The Germans have right
to air their criticisms of the Allied
bill before then, DIR. Walter Simons,
German Foreign Minister, already an
ticipates that the German and Allied