Great Falls tribune. [volume] (Great Falls, Mont.) 1921-current, 1921-09-18
BY STUART p. WEST
pecial Correspondence of The Tribune

Copyright, 1921, by The Tribune.
New York, Sept. 1.-THE most sig
lnificant happening in the past wee
has been the revelation in certain
branches Of the steel trade that no
only had the surplus supply in tn
hands of consumers got down low. bu
that it had been reduced to abnormal.
small dimensions. The trouble witt
the steel industry has mainly been
state Of over-production. Last year.
slump caught steel buyers with an I'm
usually heavy stock and when business
in their own lines fell off, this stool
became large surplus which had t.
be used up before there was any neet
of new buying from the steel mills.
1t was evident that the turn would
come when the overhanging supply wa:
exhausted, and while wire and shee,
steel are not the whole steel trade b,
any means, the fact that buyers hav.
been coming into the market in these
two departments to repenish their
stock and that prices already have hat
very sharp rebound, removes al
doubt that the steel situation as q
whole is on the mend.
Textile Mills Rushed.
As the business outlook has shown
for the better was to be expected
Those industries like textiles which
completed their readjustment of prices
and production ahead Of the rest were
yearly the pioneers in the recovery
and we now find the wooden mills ac-
tually turning down orders, because
they have a capacity business, while
the cotton mills are similarly rushed
with work.
Steel Convaiescing.
Convalescing as soon as this had not
been looked for two years ago. 1t was
thought then that there would be much
recovery before the new year. Now
the prospect is not for any quick re-
Ivival, but for a steady increase in out
put and a slowly rising price level.
The steel corporation is operating at
33 per cent capacity on the average as
against 30 per cent a month ago. This
may well be a measure of the pace
which recovery will assume in other
months.
Speculations Slowed Up.
The speculative markets have been
slow but continuous all week Cotton
has come off some ; cents on the
pound from top prices-a perfectly
natural reaction after rise which
carried the staple over 10 cents. 1t
does not mean that the statistical con-
dition has changed or that there is any
reason to abandon the hopeful feeling
inspired by the upward movement which
began toward the close Of August and
continued during the first 10 days in
September. The cotton market could
not have kept on with its wild upward
climb without danger of checking the
spinners' demands. 1t was this threat
which finally halted the advance.
Stocks in Strong Hands.
The stock market also, having had
nearly three weeks of uninterrupted
advance, in the course of which prices
rose ) and l., points, has been settling
down for period of comparative quiet
and probably Of smaller fluctuations.
This implies. in the language of the
Street, that the market has done about
all the ''discountlng" of better business
conditions that it feels warranted for
the present and will be satisfied to
consolidate the ground gained and wait
a while. to see how the general situa-
tion unfolds. There is every evidence,
however, that stocks are once more in
strength The outside public always
misses the first 20 points Of recov-
cry and it is not surprising that it has
done 80 this time. and is reluctant t.
come into the market at the higher
levels.
Money Supply Easier.
The essential thing about the specu-
lative position is that it is the first
time in years that time money supply
has loosened so that pools and syndl-
mt hat rtN 1I,n ~rSn
81 to 6 per cent for long periods, while
the same stocks are regaining their
holders Z, 8, and 10 per cent. This is
profitable business where there is as
surtnce that earnings have turned and
dividends IRE tafe.
There is no hurry about selling, and
the experienced pool managers are not
ut all concerned because at the mo-
mcnt they are not getting an outside
following.
New Issues In Demand.
No week so far has there been 80
many testimonials to the urgency of
The demand for high grade Investment
securities, both old and new. The syn.
licate bringing out the $25, 100000 Of
new Canadian National railway bonds
was the first to make capital out Of
the rise in the market ~ reducing the
interest yield to borrowers. The re-
suit was that railroad security Of
tered for the first time on 6M per
,ent basis was oversub5crihrd immeGi-
ltely the books were opened. In the
same way subscriptions to the new
treasury three year certificates
to 81 400, OOO, 900 against the
,otal offered Of S6OO,0OO,OO and the
totes have now advanced to a substan-
ial premium. These proofs of the ca
,acity Of the investment demand come
ogically ut a time when lenders are
PRESSING their funds upon the market
It the lowest rates OF the year.
Exports on the Increase.
The August statement Of the foreign
rade with it's $74,OOO,0OO increase in |
Exports over the previous month indi-
'ated that in this direction. too, July |
Jaw the bottom of the slump. With |
III that has been said about the slen-
Ter buying power of the foreign mar
tets, and the necessity of this situation |
before there can be much Of |.
recovery at home, it is interesting
o note that even at the worst-that !;
., in July-exports were twice as
arge as they were at the correspond
ng period just before the war. The |
otal export movement for July, 1921, |
vas 1920, 7OS, 600; for June, 1914, the |
otal was only 1857, 119,0O
MARKET DURING LAST WEEK
TENDS TO FOSTER OPTIMISM. |
BY WELLS.DicKEY co.
Il