New-York tribune., 1921-03-19
Resignation of Conserva.
tive Leader Brings Big
Political Crisis; Test
at Polls Likely Soon
Change in Irish
Policy Predicted
Will Be More Liberal, Say
Observers /; Chamberlain
May Enter the Cabinet
By Arthur S. Draner
From The Tribune's European Bureau



LONDON, March 18.-The life of the
Lloyd George coalition ministry,
thrown into the balance by the retire
ment from political life of Andrew
Bonar Law, leader of the Conservative
party, now depends on the stand of the
unionists. Upon that group, which
contributes the largest element Of
Lloyd Georges support, Bonar Law had
close grip.
Neither j. Austen Chamberlain nor
Sir Robert Stevenson Horne, who are
most prominently mentioned as Bonar
Laws successor, is his equal at ef-
fecting compromises. If the Premier
decides on changes in his policies, par
ticularly in his stand coward Ireland,
1t is question whether either of these
men could hold in line the Unionists,
whose attitude toward Lloyd George
has been growing steadily more threat
enlng. If the Premier loses the Union
lst element of his support a general
election may be anticipated within a
few months.
AS the country RECEIVERS from surprise
over Premier Lloyd Georges announce
ment of the retirement of his ablest
political lieutenant, speculation begins
regarding the developments which must
follow Bonar Laws desertion of the
coalition.
Ihere are some persons who refuse
TO accept the explanation that broken
health was the only reason for Bonar
Laws sudden decision to resign, al
though 1T is true that these doubling
Thomases are chiefly numbered among
the Opposition.
Lay it to Irish Problem
They believe that an unsatisfactory
Irish situation was partly responsible.
Both the leading Irish newspapers ex-
press this opinion. The Liberal and
Labor press and leaders of both par
ties assert that the life of the Lloyd
George coalition government has been
materially shortened by the resigna-
tion.
II general election came about it
would bring sweeping changes in gov
eminent policies. Not only would the
stand toward Ireland be altered. but
relations with Germany and other for
eign countries would be revised. The
Labor party would make considerable
gains IN general election, while Lloyd
george could hardly hope to obtain
enough personal followers to control a
majority in the House of Commons.
me Conservatives probably would lose
many seats. These shiftings would
mean larger measure of Influence for
labor in the new coalition,
The only alternative for this would
lie in an alliance between Lloyd George
and the Conservatives. In this case
he would no longer be the chief figure.
The Irish policy unique stionshiv is
being reconsidered and, whatever
change. is made, it is safe guess that
1t won't be in the direction of further
represslve measures. Rumors con-
tlnue to circulate that Sir Hamar
Greenwood's term as Chief Secretary
tor ireland is almost at an end.
With the Ulster parliamentary elac-
tions only a month off and Sim Fam
ers planning to contest seats in the
very heart of Sir Edward Carson's
stronghold, and with Southern ireland
more disrupted than it was six months
ago, there is every reason why Lloyd
George should be desirous of changing
his Irish policy or at least of making
move which the outside world would
interpret as generous on the par. of
England. He would have large meas
ure OF support mere II he took such q
step, for the British generally feel
that they are embarras ssed by the Irish
situation as it exists to-day.
Situation Is Confused
Chamberlain has a clear lead over
Sir Robert Horne and the Earl Of
Derby for the leadership of the Con-
servatives. The new chief will be
selected Monday.
The truth of the whole political stu
alton is that it is exceedingly con-
fused. The Conservatives, although
numerically the largest party in the
House, are as much at sea as anybody.
Every one believes that the retirement
of Bonar Law will prove to be the be-
ginning in a series of dramatic changes
in British administration from which
Ireland will benefit.
LONDON, March IS (By The Asso-
Gated Press).-A political crisis Of the
first magnitude has been created by the
retirement of A Bonar Law from the
British Cabinet, it is declared by The
London Times. Other newspapers.
while less emphatic, agree in saving
that Mr.. Bonar Laws resignation is
certain to have considerable political
effect and that it probably will mate
rally weaken the coalition government