The New York herald., 1921-01-23
FRANCES HOPE FOR
FIXED sum FADES.
Doubtful if Allied Premiers
VIII Decide Now Exact In
demnity to Be Paid.
BELGIUM HAS PRIORITY
Meanwhile French Statesmen
Struggle With Prospects Of
Staggering Deficit.
BY LAURENCE HILLS.

BY LAURENCE HILLS.
Special Gable to THE NEW York HERALD.
Copyright, 1921. by THE NEW YORK HERALD
New York Herald Bureau.
Paris. Jan. 22.
The sum total actually to be exacted
from Germany in payment of repara-
tons is not likely to be fixed at the
despite hopes recently expressed along
this line. In fact, there seems to be
less chance of it than there was at
Boulogne and Spa. Then. indeed,
to accepting the idea advanced by the
Americans at the Peace Conference,
that only by such methods could world
credits be stabilized and speedy eco
nomic readjustments effected.
But recent events. including Ger
many's apparent remarkable indus
trial rehabilitation and Frances own
serious financial situation have caused
the French again to refer to the factor
of uncertainty and to demand, at least
before the sum to be exacted is fixed,
that Germany's progress be further
watched
This was made clear by Premier Bri-
and's speech in the Chamber of Depu-
lies yesterday. the French Premiers
policy being to steer a middle course
between the extreme measures advo-
Gated by Raymond Poincare and the
q
The French demands are for the Rep
arations Commission to fix the German
debt. They are for fixing the annual
payments Germany must make in the
next five years, but they are for leav-
ing open the actual sum to be collected
from Germany. at least for the present
The Germans would prefer to have the
sum fixed at once. Reports from Brus-
sells are that the Belgians are for this
plan. but also favor fixing the first
five year payments at the suggested
figure of 5000. 100000 gold marks.
belgian Preference Conceded.
Belgium's conceded priority would give
her $500 000,0 marks of this out of
the first annuity. 1t is difficult to see
how Premier Lloyd George can possibly
become a convert to the fixed sum idea
unless he agrees to sum sufficiently
high to meet expectations of the French
moderates and which would be far in ex-
cess of $4,000, 100000 marks, tentatively
fixed at Boulogne.
With the reparations questions domi-
mating everything else the length of the
conference Is uncertain. But It Is sig
nificant that Premier Lloyd George is
planning a two weeks stay here If nee
essary.
The almost hopeless state OF Frances
financial situation on the eve of the
meeting OF the allied Premiers is giving
rise to very evident worry in Official
circles here. The most optimistic pre-
dictions are that Germany will agree to
pay 5000. 900 marks in currency or
kind annually for five years, but this
viii by no means meet Frances require
ments. Her budget deficit still exceeds
6,0O,00O,0oO francs. not counting the ar
rears in last years budget and the pos
sibility Of being called upon at any time
to meet at least the interest on United
States Treasury loans.
Even II 1900. 10000 marks are obtain
able from Germany. Frances share will
be only slightly more than half OF this,
which will leave twelve to fifteen billions
to be found elsewhere.
strict Economy Is Urged.
Logically there is only one source
open by which 1t can be hoped TO NEE.
this emergency. and that is strict
economy in all Government depart
ments, but to save 1900. 100000 francs
on a total expenditure OF 10000, ,0O0O00
francs is more of puzzle than French
bookkeeping can solve. and IL is becom-
ing evident that there will be tre-
mendous deficit at the end Of the year,
with the unpaid balances again charged
against Germany's doubtful account.
II is evident however. that France
Is counting more and more on Great
Britain's assistance in the way of
credits. once basis for German pay
ments Is fixed.
Premier Lloyd Georges assurance last
autumn that credits would not be with
held IL the lump sum was defined has
been the lett motif in all recent repara-
tons negotiations, a fact of which the
Germans have not neglected to take
advantage. as Frances conciliatory at
titude, especially since January /.
promptly evoked conditions" which
the correspondent for THE NEW YORK
HERALD was informed to-day by the
French Foreign Office, could not be adj
mitted.
In this France will have the meas
urable support of Premier Lloyd George,
as Great Britain is not likely to return
a part OF the German fleet any more
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