Evening star., 1921-07-16
BY STUART p. WEST.

NEW YORK. July 1S.-Wal street
has sunk this week into the familiar
apathy of the midsummer period.
There has been no great amount of
selling-that is. real selling-but
there has been still less in the way of
new buying. Consequently. prices,
where they have moved at all. have
been inclined to sag. with some posi-
tive weakness here and there among
spcial issues.
AS pointed out last Saturday. the
traditional causes Of hesitation at this
time of year are not the influences
principally at work now. With the
federal reserve ratio UP to 61.6 per
cent-the highest since the early
spring of 191S-with such evidences
of defiation as this weeks decrease of
S103. 100000 in discounts and $6s.o00,-
600 in circulating notes, with the rec
ord of $346.000.000 added since the
first of the year to our stock of gold.
nobody can possibly worry about the
autumn money market.
Crop Prices Factor.
1t is not the question of money sup
ply during crop-movlng time that is
counting now, as 1t has in past years.
Nor is it the uncertainty Of the har-
drought and high temperatures of the
last month have reduced crop expec-
tations very considerably, even from
what they were figured by the govern
ment at the outset of the month. But
the thing of Importance this year is
not so much the volume of agricul-
tural production as it is the prices
which the farmers will receive. We
could afford to see short grain crop,
as we are going to see a short cotton
crop, If this would bring prices up to
a level where farmers would feel like
selling freely. and SO be enabled to
pay off their bank loans and liquidate
their debts to manufacturing cor
porations.
1t is neither. then. the money mar
ket nor the harvest yield which is up
permost in the calculations of the
financial community just now. The
supreme consideration is the state Of
trade and when there Is likely to be
a general upward turn. The testi-
mony of the trade situation has been
rather more than less favorable, as
it has come in during the week. To
pressing. The second cut in prices
has failed to stimulate demand. If
anything, new orders are smaller
since the reduction than they were
before. But in other lines the re-
ports are somewhat brighter.
UcfhSny Buying SOPRCEs
The disclosure that Germany has
and is arranging for credits to enable
her to buy a good deal more. Is of
much significance for the copper in
dustry. Germany also proposes to use
her new American credits for the pur-
chase Of cotton. The English demand
the settlement Of the strike at the
Lancaster mills. and this improve
ment, actual and prospective, in the
export movement, along with the Sc
we're shrinkage in the new crop. has
radically changed the cotton price
outlook from what it was month
ago. Cotton is UP cents a pound.
and Is pointing higher.
The sugar trade has seemed all
along to be in the most desperate
state of all, yet even here there have
been signs of recovery for the first
for the refined product has picked up
and prices have been advanced. The
reiners have SO far used up the cur
rent supply of Porto Rican raws that
they have had to turn, even though
reluctantly. to the commission which
has exclusive charge OF selllng the
Cuban crop.
Oil Output Curtailed.
The domestic oil output has passed
its peak and is slowly descending. In
asmuch as Mexican supplies have been
almost entirely cut off, in consequence
of the excessive export tax. the oil
surplus is coming down at rate
which must soon make itself felt In
better prices. The textile mills are
fairly busy. even although the mar
gin Of profit is not large. Conditions
in the hide and leather trade and in
the boot and shoe business continue
en- the mend.
1t is hard to believe, after noting
these numerous signs Of better things,
that they are not going to show be-
fore long in the Wall street market.
OF course, midsummer is q bad time
to look for any renewal Of trade ac-
tivity All that can be hoped for il
that the axidancsA ~ IA corner