New-York tribune., 1921-11-16
Expect
France to Balk
At Cut i'm Army
Next Great Move i'm Farley
Up to BRAND, Who, It Is
Forecast, Will Urge Ger.
many Cannot BE Trusted
Paris Unmoved by Clamor
Britain Willing to Support
Ally if She Will Assume
Lead in Land Reduction
BY p. W. Wilson

FOR years American correspondent of
"Thc London Daily Ncws" and former
Member of Parliament.
Copyright. 1921 New York Tribune Inc.
WASHINGTON, Nov. 15.~Nayal dis
armament, like the problems of the Pa
cifc, is now safely consigned to the
cold storage Of committee of the con-
ference, with committees sitting in
private while the experts haggle over
details. For the moment, then, the
personalities of Secretary Hughes, Mr..
Balfour and Admiral Kato recede from
view and there emerges NJ BRAND, of
France, as the man who must now say
the next great word. We are brought
thus early to the critical moment when
1T will be decided whether ornaments
on land are to be reduced to the same
extent as armaments at sea. On
France depends the initiative.
1t must be confessed that the best
authorities are not optimistic. The
expectation is that M. BRAND, in the
Forthcoming speech which he has an
nounced, will assume the negative atti-
tude which has been that of France
ever since the armistice. 1t is argued
that public opinion in Paris, far re-
moved from the diplomatic breezes of
Washington, will not have been changed
by the triumphant Endorsement of pro-
posals for scrapping battleships which,
for generations, have been Of only a
secondary interest to Frenchmen,
whether as patriots or as Taxpayers
M. BRAND might contend that a sched-
ule for disarmament on land is open
to evasion, that Germany cannot be
trusted, and that, in any case, the
French army is needed to make Ger
many pay reparatons.
BRAND May Spring Surprise
This would mean that nothing to
limit armaments on land would be done
at the conference. In this matter
France and Italy must act together and
it is unthinkable that Japan would
assume the lead over their heads. The
question does then arise whether the
great and surprising success achieved
by Mr.. Hughes might not be equaled
by similar sensation if Mr.. BRAND
also were to lay his cards as frankly
on the conference table. Before the
Prime Minister Of France there lie two
paths-the one of faith, of appeal, of
peace, and the other, of doubt, of Bit
ter memories, Of possible war renewed
across the Rhine. Events are moving
SO quickly that no one can say which
path M. BRAND will pursue. 1t is said
that France feels herself to be in n
secondary position at the conference.
In a conference summoned to limit
armies as we'll as navies, it could hard
ly be otherwise until France states
clearly to what extent she is ready to
dem0bilize and on what terms.
An Anglo-American guaranty of the
French frontier has not been and ap-
parently cannot be embodied in
treaty with any hope Of ratification
by the Senate. IT,, however, France
were to say definitely that she would
be ready on certain conditions to
abolish conscripton and reduce her
standing army to "a given figure, it
would be very hard to refuse her the
conditions. Naturally, she would insist
that Italy make a corresponding reduc-
ton and she would support the United
States in an approach to Japan. It
is surely inconceivable that the great
powers forming this conference, if led
by France in this upward road, would
permit her in future, years to be at
tackled by Germany If France de-
moblizes and promotes rehabilitation
in Italy and Japan, with the consent
and approval of the Washington con-
ference, she obtains by that very tact