Pueblo chieftain., 1921-11-22
BY FREDERIC ]. HAsKIN

Washington, d. c., Nov. 1o.-The
next world war. il it takes place. will
probably be won by the strongest ma
ton which succeeds In staying out of
| it.
This considerat ton, which is based
upon the calculsti tons of military ex-
perts concerning future wars. as well
as upon the obvious lessons of the one
| Just over, is undoubtedly a powerful
force making for disarmament.
II is probable that each of the prin-
cipal nations, in the next few dec
| AIDES, will strive for the limitation OF
armament and the adjustment OF In
| ternational relations in such way
that its own liability to be emhroiled
| in war will be reduced to n minimum
1t does not follow that this Will al
ways make for international peace. IL
probably will do SO in a general way,
| but 1t means that while each nation
| will itself strive to keep out OF war.
IL will often be of advantage TO a given
alton TO embroil its chief commercial
| rivals in a war. For example, some
observers have commented upon the
fact that certain sections OF the
French press dwell r. great deal upon
the points which may produce antas-
onism between Great Britain and the
United States. 1t has been pointed out
that should the United States and
Great Britain ever engage in war
without France being involved in any
way, at the end OF that war France
would occupy n much stronger inter.
national position than she does now.
1t has been suggested that the French
government may not be wholly obliHi-
Gus to this fact. Whether 1t has any
influence on French policy or not. 1t
illustrates the point under cont4dera-
tion.
THE CASE OF ENGLAND
Another illustration has been
brought to light by discussions OF An
glo-Jap alliance. Whether this alli-
ance shall be renewed or not is one OF
the crucial questions OF the confer
ence In the canvass of considerations
which probably effect British. policy
in this regard. 1T has been pointed out,
as n reason why Britain might wish
to discontinue the alliance. that in case
of war between Japan and the United
States. Great Britain could win that
war by staying out or II. IL In stated
| that II Japan and the United states
| fought for four years, during that time
Great Britain would regain the posi-
| tion of controlling financial center OF
tho world, which has now passed to
the United States. and would also
greatly Increase her commerce. She
would do this by selling goods and
| lending money to the belligercnts. who
would constantly weaken each other.
or course Great Britain's relative gain
by staying out of the war - much
greater by reason OF the ract that IL
she went into 1t she would lose Can
ada. and nothing she could gain would
repay her for that loss. But even
leaving Canada out Of considera tion,
Great Britain could gain only by stay
ing out OF such n war. The United
States would lose her International
load dership by such a war, in all prob
ability, even IL she won a victory.
The same factors appear in all call
culations that are made concerning
possible future wars. There are ma
,ions which might gain by successful
war I'm certain circumstances, and
these are noted to be the least enthu-
siastic for disarmament. But, in gem
oral. war no longer pays as COM
mercia1 adventure.
You have only to look back a iittle
way to see that this fact marks
revolutionary change in the basis Of
international policy. II is commons
place of political economy that nearly
all modern wars have been fought fof
commercial advantage. To he more
exact, they have been fought to give
tho foreign investors OF q given coun-
, try a preferential right in exploiting
the natural resources or various parts
of the world and in selling msnufsc-
tured goods TO various peoples. ma
tion which has been succesEful in its
ware IN the past has gained thereby
new sources of raw material to exploit.
and new markets from which Its COM
potitors were wholly or partly eSclud-
cd. This advantage has resulted In
an accumulation of wealth In the sue
cessful country. This wealth is all
ways in the hands OF the relatively
few mon who have money invested in
foreign trade and exploitations. Tho
common man, who works for wages or
"a salary. never makes any but small
and incidental gains by successful
war. while he always has to do the
fighting and also TO nav the thNes. lIe