Norwich bulletin., 1921-12-03
NEW ENGLAND BUSINESS AND INDUSTRIAL
 CONDITIONS.

The business situation should always be looked at from two different angles, first, as 1t changes from month to month. | and second, by eliminating that prcpor- ton of the change which is the result of periodical seasonal activity. thereby giv- ing the longer range or fundamental point l, of view, writes Frederic H. Curtiss, chairman of the federal reserve bank of
 Boston. in his monthly review. The two
 are quite distinct and often give appar-
 ently contradictory results. In other
 words, there is a movement within
 movement. The building industry, for
 instance, may improve fundamentally
 this coming winter yet be quiet conl-
 pared with its activity last summer. If
 the business situation at the present
 time is observed from each of these
 points of view it will be found that the
 changes in industrial activity from week
 to week are very confusing, some indus tries apparently receding while others continue to improve It might be said that industry as whole in New England improved but slightly on the surface dur ing November. But If the situation be viewed broadly the assumption would probably be justified that a further small
 advance has been made in the cycle to- l ward fundamentally better conditions. l The total progress since summer has not 1 been large and 1t is quite possible that l the recovery from the depression will not
 be marked for some time. There are still l too many factors of unknown influence 1 to permit one to form an intelligent esti- { mate as to the magnitude of industrial l activity during the coming year. Certain | ly several of the larger New England 1 industries have already made substantial | recoveries from the depression. Among 1 these is the paper industry For several l months manufacturers stocks of paper | have been declining while at the same time production has been increasing. An encouraging feature is the fact that the | production of paper board has apprecia- bly, increased. re1ecting the improvement in the general situation. Paper board, of
 course, is used largely in making boxes
 and containers for shipping purposes.
 The boot and shoe industry of thi.
 district however. is laboring under sev-
 eral difficulties which make the outlook l at the moment a little less optimistic
 than it was a short time ago. Severa of the New England shoe centers are } having wage disputes which seem to have come to head in Lynn, Mass, tn,
 largest producer of women's shoes il
 New England. At the same time the sea sonaI movement of production in this in dustry indicates that this is normally thu period of reduced production as the fac tories are just finishing their run of fal : and winter shoes and preparing for tn l spring production.
 : The wooden industry Is perhaps as ac 5 tive as any of the New England indus tries and is, operating at what might b called a. normal rate. The general ton ! in the cotton industry. however. is no quite as good. The rapid changes i the price of the raw staple have unset 3 tied both the yarn and the goods mar g kets, these fluctuations being due t changes in the forecasts of the size C : this years cotton crop, the final figur = for which will not be known until tn , last of December In the meantime Ne ' England cotton mills continue [ operat :, ct approximately 80 per cent of capac ' ty.
 = Retail trade took decided change fc : the better during October. It had bee Y falling behind during July, August an :. September, and merchants at that tim = did not have a very hopeful outlook fc 7. the fall. However, those departmer ~ s stores in New England which report 1 . this bank state that their meet sales . dollars during October of this year wei v larger than in the same month last yea " notwithstanding the fact that in the il N'e teriTn retail prices had declined consi. 'a erably. The obvious conclusion is tn larger volumes of goods are being so .. by the department stores this fall than Y. year ago.
 The total value of contracts award
 for new construction in New England du y ing October, which amounted to SPIT Is 900 was the largest for any month l. 1921 and was 21 per cent. above that tn October last year. In fact the New En d. land federal reserve district showed n- larger gain between September and Q ss tober than any other district in the Unit is States
 IS The money and banking situation is