The Morning Tulsa daily world. [volume] (Tulsa, Okla.) 1919-1927, 1921-09-04
nv FRED c. KELLY.

EVERY hNdN WHO uIlNff an dblp-
mobile, or has tried TO find n va
can't space III wnich to park one,
and every pedestrian who IL daily
Obliged to dodge automobiles, or TO
wait on the endless stream of them
10 pa -. so that he may cross busy
street EVERY one Of these persons.
or nearly everybody have
asked himself at some time:
what is going to happen WHOM
there are several times as many
as there are now? How
many automobiles are there going to,
he I'm this country, anyhow? Where
arc we going TO put thcm all2 VIII
ritv streets have to be built ono on
TX ~ another? what viii tho
,,tI,tion he in ten or Is years. lt
tbc present annual increase In the
,ise o' automobiles About Q 000. 600
a., po,v in usa. hut there are some
tbIng like iO5, ,O0O, 900 people in the
ltritrd states, 50 that there are still
many millions who do not own their
own cars. How many OF these l05,-
ruu. 600 are eventually going to buy?
%ot nearly so many as might be oN-
u,rtcd Indeed, IL appears doubt
ful IL there ever will he even twice
as many cars in use as there ar"
t,lay The pOln, of sHturation is
thorough. psinstaking invest
CARTON into the present and future
Status Of the automobile industry
I.. lust been made by Leonard y.
N,.es, vice president OF the Clcvc-
land Trust companE and q rccoC
uiznd statistical expert. Many OF
Nvr,s' conclusions are rp'her start
lre. For example, he found that
Oh. capacity of the automobile fac
tories IN this country was more than
LOCO 600 cars "A year In excess OF
M. present demand. II these fac
tories were run at their full capacity
for a few years they would aoon
eupulv every potential buyer I'm the
laiiod states There would ,hc so
many automobiles In use that tho
Gasoline supply would be made
ouato. and some other kind of mo-
tive power would have to be de-
yc'oped.
ft seems improbable. that either
tho export or domestic markets can
ever absorb the fun capacity Of the
American automobile industry, and
hence ii iS likely that we shall sec
extensive readiu7t mon's in prices,
dur 20 sharp competition and To tho
fact. also, that peoples buying pow
er al over the world has recently
been much reduced.
Although the population OF the
country - about O5,00O,00O, the
greatest number OF possible auto
mobile buyers. even by a lihgal es-
innate. is less than 10000, 900. Tho
figure Of 2O.oOO,O 900 is about the
number Of white American families,
II IS about the number, too, Of per-
sons whose occupations and earn
ing power are such that they might
buy automobiles. Not every man
who has the price of an automobile
will buy one. For example. there
are fishermen, lumbermen, sailors.
soldiers lighthouse Keepers and
others who would have sCant OPP
portunity to drive a car after they
got H. Almost anybody will agree
that for a lighthouse keeper to in
vest his earnings in a high powered
touring car would be a downright
eytravaua Then there are thou
sands of people living in cities whose
earnings might permit them to keep
automobiles If they were in n small
r . paG snG herS wbsrc E%eaFf bo1e r$ns is sss
thick as to, spoil the pleasure of au-
tumohlng' usually occurs where
the garage costs are the highest.
IL Cars to Every 100 White Men.
Mr.. Ayrcs finds that. at the end
Of 1920. there were about 40 cars IN
use for each 100 white men of voting
age. In several states the entire
population might crowd into the
rcItomOhiles there registered and all
go riding at once. Each car lasts, on
the average about six seasons. II
may be rcsold once or twice within
that time, but tt runs six seasons
bttF L.. ..f 10
sion. From now on the better
grade Of cars viii doybtlcss last
much longer.
II seems altogether doubtful If the
sale Of the higher-priced cars will
over he much more than 1t Is now,
Since RlG, the increases in the an
nual output OF automobiles have
been largely accounted for by the
mounting number of sales OF Fords
and other less eXpcnive makes
Axros believes that for several years
new users OF cars will be confined
largely TO people of limited means
who will buy these less costly ma
chimes,
Let us take look now at the
Ayrcs method Of arriving at conclu-
aions, From here on | shall quote
from all parts of his report of tho
results of his inquiry:
Fairly reliable figures for the reg
iStrntion of automobiles in each
state arc available beginning with
The year 1912. They have hcen
compelloS from year to yoar by au-
iomotive industries, the oMiCc OF
public roads and rural engineering,
IN tho department Of agriculture and
other agencies. Where figures have
been missing in the original records
lh"y have been aupplicd by using
da'a based on those Of neighhOring 6
states. Similar methods have been
used whore the data were based on
ihrec~yoa~ registrations or pcrcn-
MIal systems, The figures shown I'm
ahIe ! are in round thousands be
.auN" 1t was believed that greater
dct1ll would not increase their re-
liability. The data include both
passenger and commercial cars, but
not motorcycles, tractors or deal
'rs' cars Table two represents an
attempt to give the essential data
with regard to the production and
use of automobiles since the begin
ming Of the industry in this Coun-
t'y, It's production figures have been
taken from the reports OF the cen
Sus each five years beginning with
lNHH, supplemented by data for tho
intervening years compiled by the
national Chamber Of commerce. In
q q