The New York herald., 1921-06-19

political questions are disappearing, at
least taking secondary position. We have
escaped war over the frontiers Of Italy and
Jugo-Slavia, Rumania and Hungary Russia
and Rumania, and the conflict between
Poland and Russia has led to definite settle
ment which mas stood the test of many
months. Franco German disputes have led
not to new invasions but to an adjustment
which promises to give temporary cessation
of trouble along the Rhine The map of Eu-
rope is almost reconstructed and the 'un-
finished details are Insignificant as COM
pared with the problems which have been
disposed of.
Leaving Out Russia.
Map of Europe Is Reconstructed
Certainly the Russian problem is far from
final settlement War between Poland and
Germany in the future is well nigh certain,
not because tie present settlement between
the two countries is markedly unfair but
because no real settlement was possible. In
the end central European conditions must
lead either to a Danubian federation or to
German annexation. But Germany will not
now attempt to annex, and thus the question
is postponed 20 a later date
The real danger has been, since Russia
collapsed as = menace and Germany turned
her back upon Bolshevism, such an ac-
centuation Of the Franco German question
as might lead to new invasions, and these in
turn might lead to the destruction of order
in Germany-the transformation of Bis
MARKHAM unity into the traditional German
chaos. To put the thing briefly. the danger
has been that politics might ruin economic
recovery and the world war leave in its
train consequences as fatal as those of the
Thirty Years War. We have been on the
edge Of this catastrophe many times. 1t
was escapable only if Germany took her
medicine and agreed to pay what was possi-
BILE and beyond all question due. But it
would seem we have escaped the last and
acutest peril of all. which was incidental to
the recent crisis and the proposed invasion
of Ruhr.
Looking back now over the last two years.
and even over the last seven It seems to me
one can quite fairly assume that the worst
is over. world which for more than four
years fought and in the process became
accustomed to the employment of force to
settle all questions is becoming accustomed
to something which If not peace is at least
a far cry from the warfare of the summer
of 1918. If there smoudering fires in
many quarters of Europe, almost without
exception they seem to be dying down.
Every winter lived through without general
anarchy has been long gain, for each sue
ceeoing harvest has been more nearly suf-
ficient to feed the hungry mouths. and We
have already lived through three
Even now a refusal Of Germany to pay or
disarm would lead to a renewal OF the worst
of all the dangers. But the recent crisis
demonstrated that such refusal, instead of
dividing the Allies would unite them. Ger
man defiance at London led to that ulti-
matum which was but the first step in the
direction Of the occupation of the Ruhr
Rome and London, even Washington, mani
tested not the smallest inclination to support
German resistance. The question of how
much Germany could pay was then de-
batable: the obligation of Germany to pay
and the certainty that force would be applied
If resistance continued, both were disclosed
in the progress of the debate.
In my judgment this was the worst crisis
of all. Economic and industrial reconstruc-
ton were in more deadly peril in the last
days of April than at any time since the
Bolshevist attack before Warsaw collapsed.
Occupation of the Ruhr would have proven
the last straw, so far as the strained and
shaken structure of European industry was
concerned and that decay of Europe which
so many European writer's have announced
as already in progress would have been
inescapable. But having surmounted this
crisis it seems to me Europe has adequately
demonstrated its determination to live and
its will to avoid supreme disaster.
Questions Remaining Are
Troublesome but Less Vital
To-day there is Polish question CEN
tral European question an Eastern question
in a new and aggravated form Real adjust
ment in Europe will he materially delayed
precisely as long Franco German rela-
tons retain their present character. AS long
as the French believe that the Germans are
plotting a new attack and the Germans be-
lieve France is seeking the disruption and
ruin of Germany all restoration of normalcy
will be delayed. We shall continue TO have
incidents. denunciations on either side of the
Rhine. The Polish problem will add to the
bitterness.
On the other hand provided Germany con-
tnues to pay and to dsarm, a gradual de-
cline in French apprehension may be ex-
pected. And Germany must pay and dis
arm, since only on those terms can she hope
with Anglo-1talian support to escape new
French invasion. For twenty years Ger
many Will be helpless to resist French in
vasion and her single hope of escaping 1t
must be compliance with that programme
which Great Britain and Italy accept as n
minimum. France can be restrained only
by the desire to avoid a break with her
European allies and with friendly America.
But such restraint can be applied only IL
Germany meets her obligations
Great Britain, and the United States as
well. desires 70 avoid any new economic dis
turbance such as would follow any fresh
military action. vast majority of French
men are equally anxious to avoid a new
campaign, with all the additional burdens
which II would place upon French finance
German defiance and bad faith in the past
have weakened the influence Of moderate
men in all countries. They have made Brit