Evening star., 1921-11-18
SPIRIT OF CAUTION
ENVELOPS Japan
Possible Advantage to U. S.
in Naval Cut Now
Seen.
By the Associated Press


fading of the first enthusiasm over
the anticipated relief of armament
burdens. a spirit of caution has de-
veloped in Japan, with the inclination
to look for a possible advantage to
the United States in its proposal for
a ten-year naval holiday and limita-
tion of navies. Expressions favorine
a more equal balance of power have
become the conspicuous note in pub
lie expressions concerning the scheme
with the probable disturbance of la
Dor conditions as a secondary consid-
Grafton.
The sacrifice of warships aggregat-
ing 100000 tons by Japan would be
equal to the scrapping of 1,5o0, 900 tons
by the United States, Japanese ana
lysts declare, on the ground that in
an emergency the United States could
replace her lost tonnage within a
third. or even fifth. of the time re-
quired by Japan with her limited IA
cilities. The experts believe that a
fair estimate Of strength cannot be
reached on a tonnage basis alone,
but think the speed of the vessels
cred.
1t is pointed out that the Ameri-
can proposals would leave the United
States five capital ships constructed
between 1914 and 1916. while, with
the exception of the Nagato, Japan's
would all be of the period prior to
1913
1t is admitted that the Japanese
navy would be superior to the Ameri-
can in speed through the eliminate ton
Of cruisers, but the experts declare
that in all else the plan would favor
the United States. Some members of
the admiralty are credited with ex-
pressing the belief that the japanese
fleet should aggregate sc per cent cf
the American total, all things being con-
sidered. Naval writer's, expressing the
opinion that the United States will
posals are not subject to amendment,
see a fair prospect for an amicable
adjustment.
New Ratio Proposed.
Concessions by the United States
in regard to Pacific fortif1cations as
an offset to what is generally COM
ing to be regarded as the unfair ratio
Of naval strength are suggested by
Baron Toshiatsu Sakamoto, an influ- :
entail member of the house of peers,
in an article in the Asahi Shimbun.
He declares that the ratio should
be twelve battleships for Japan to
eighteen for the United States, in
stead of ten to eighteen. He says,
further. that under the Hughes plan,
with Japan retaining only one of the
superdreadnaught type, the Nagato,
against Americas three, Japan's ratio
should be reduced to approximately
ten to twenty. A fairer balance, he
argues, might be secured in a diff
ferent direction. namely. the fortifi-
cation of the Pacific, which, he says,
it is important to discuss. together
with the question of eliminating all
| naval bases which menace Japan.
Airplanes Declared Issue.
M. Soyeda, director of the Labor
and Capital Coordination Society,
declares in a statement that In his
view the carrying out of the pro-
posals would have the gravest social
effect. He expresses belief that ia
pan should act with caution regard
ing step involving a radical change
in conditions affecting the social
welfare.
The H6chi Shimbun considers there
has been a serious omission in the
proposals. irasmuch as restriction of
aerial possibilities is not touched
upon. There has been a striking de-
velopment in that department in
America. says this newspaper, and It
declares that the Americans attach
greater Importance to aerial su-
premacy than to dreadnaugfits. It
expresses the hope that the United
States will propose equally drastic
restrictions along these lines.
Attention also Is given by the COM
mentators to far eastern questions.
Among the views given are those of
Reijiro Wakatsuki, former minister
of finance, who takes it for granted
that the Anglo-Japanese alliance is
doomed and foresees the possibility
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