Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1921-04-15
BOTTOM NOT YET
Lowest Price Drop to Come by May,
Says Noted Expert.
MATHEMATICAL FORMULA FOR GUIDE

Read justment Will Leave Wages &C
Per Cent Higher Than in 1918 Is
cIaim-CIaims Wages Of Teachers
and Office Workers Will be In
creased.
The bottom level of the decline in
the price Of commodities will be
reached IN May, according to Halbert
P. Gillette, editor Of. Engineering and
Contracting says Chicago dispatch.
Gillette has devised q 'mathemati-
cal formula for determining the ay-
erage price of commodities and for
predicting prices several years in ad-
vance.
Professor E. w. Kemmerer, OF
Princeton, and Professor Irving Fish
er of Yale, had previously worked out
ormulas for determining the trend in
prices.
Gillette's fornlu;a gives the index
or average price of commodities. His
method involves the use of only five
variable factors, the data for every
one Of which may be found in the
statistical abstract of the United
'tates. census.
He has tested his formula by ap-
plication to prices extending back 30
years. In each instance, one is able
20 predict" the average price Of COM
modities for. any year during the past
30 years. ,,.,
Hencerit is q demonstrable formu-
"a, which has had added confirmation
by the fact that nearly a year ago he
lid predict the prices which are now
prevailing.
, Through systematic study Of the
per capita production, bank. deposits
and clearings, labor wages and COM
nodities during 80 years, Gillette pre-
.icts:
That good times are near at hand.
That the lowest point Of the slump
In prices will be reached in May.
That the new average level of prices
will be so cents higher than it was in
1913.
That the new average level Of
wages will be 60 per cent. higher than
it was in 1913.
1.-The peak of the high prices was
cached in May. 1920" said Gillette
in an interview. prices at that time
we're at the index figure 272-as COM
pared with the loo normal of 1913.
That is to say. that prices cost 172
per cent moro in May. 1920, than they
lid in 1913.
During February. 1921. statistics
Just received show that prices had
lroppcd to 167. Ny calculations show
that prices will continue to drop until
hey reach GO per cent. more than in
1913: and will remain at the level as
IN average unless affected by extra
ordinary circumstances for ten years
Dr. more.
Wages, which are governed by the
same conditions, will also be 60 per
cent higher than they were in 1913.
Cut for Labor.
"In the nature OF things, common
abor must accept a 20 per cent. cut
from the average scale now obtaining
that Is, the scale must be reduced
160, or go per cent. above the 1913
scale.
I'm some branches Of work, such
Is teaching and office work. which
i'd not advance as did common labor
Turing the war, the wage scale Will
be increased in bringing things back
10 normal"
Gillette pointed out that there are
I number of fallacies current about
the causes of the high cost OF living.
They are that the condition is attri-
5utable to {1) profitcering, go eX-
.ravagancc, CD inefticiency of work.
,rs, 4) scarcity Of commodities In
America, and (5) high taxes.
"Profitcering> can not affect aver
age prices" said Gillette, however
much it may affect the price of a
given. class. Of things.
"Profitcering merely serves to
change the distribution of the total
currency, but does not change the to-
tai.
profiteering divcrts the currency
into pockets and bank accounts that
it would not otherwise have reached.
Such n diversion may result in q
greater buying OF certain commodi-
ties.
"Gut by rs much rs those profitccrs
increase the demand for the things
they purchase, by an exactly equal
amount there occurs u decrease IN
the demand for the things that would
otherwise have been purchased.
"The alleged decrease in the eff
oency in production, taken as a whole
in America. is purely imaginary. BE-
tween the years 1855 and 1907 the
average per capita production in the
United States doubled.
"In answer to the third fallacy, q
general scarcity of commodities in
america does not exist. 60.
NOR do high taxes have any ef-
feet upon average prices unless they
cause Il stagnation in industry.
To%CcntroI Currency.