The Washington herald., 1921-01-18
Former Wheat Admins
traitor Presents Results
OF Expert Study.
coxTrNrEp IRON PAGE ONE.

e.
level of these exchanges. to profit
at the expense Of the poorly in
formed grower.
1T is impossible in advance to
obtain exactly accurate information
on probable supply and probable
consumption. That story is only
unfolded. week by week, with con-
stant maturing of crops, the demon
stration of their actual flow into
commerce. and the current consump-
tion record made week by week,
with the extraordinary consumption
Fluctuations which necessarily fol-
loy the exercise of individual pref
erence by hundreds of millions of
consumers"
Points Ont DifHcuIty.
Barnes at this point illustrated
the great difficulty of ascertaining
accurate data regarding crops and
consumption by citing numerous in
stances showing a wide variation in
estimates made by government Of
fcials and important trade authori-
ties in several countries.
He told hCw the Agricultural De-
partment of this country had under
estimated this years wheat crop
by nearly 100000 bushels. The
addition OF this amount of wheat 90
the United States surplus, he said,
would be a price making factor of
some influence in the final balance
sheet.
with the best avenues of infor-
nation in the world" he said. there
ere always such possible errors in
advance estimates Of supply and de-
mand that il is impossible to ac
curately forecast the price move
ment.
Long Time Required.
only by the passage Of weeks
and of months, and by their gradual
demonstration of actual movement
into commercial channels and out.
can more accurate information be
obtained as to the relation of sup
ply to demand. This means that
merchants and millers, exporters
and importers, must be constantly
on the alert to review their earlier
Information and opinions, and only
by constant vigilance can they es-
cape disaster and wreck"
Barnes presented another table
to show how the wheat trade has
succeeded in anticipating the ac-
tual developments of supply and
demand, and the price effected
thereby. 1t analyses the wheat
crops of the past ten years. with
the omission of the three years af-
fected by the government fair-price
guarantee.
Theory Dispreved.
THE theory of depression dur
inc fhEs aarlNr
be followed by profitable advances
later, is not borne out by this analy-
sis" he said. For instance. this
method - followed without any
hedging insurance for the first six
years referred to, including three
years of actual war influence
would have resulted in q net loss,
for the six years, on the accumula-
tion Of the first half of. the crop
year, as follows: E.-.
IF the surplus had been markei>o
at the price obtainable in January,
the loss would have been S52,5OO,-
900; in February, S10o, 500, 900;
March, March. $112,OOO, eco: April.
$l1s,5o0,000; May, $3.50, 500, 600; or
June. SlS6,SOO, 900.
The surplus of the one crop of
1857, bought in the first half
of the crop-year, was aided by the
imitation which followed our en-
trance into the wra in the spring
of 1917; yet, adding all the in
crease in value of that one extraor-
dinary crop-year, the grain trade
result far the seven years would
have been as follows:
Table SHOWS Loss.
If marketed at the average price
in January, a gain of s31. 500, ,00o;
in February, loss of s7.3o0,000;
March. gain OF ss2, 200, loco: April,
a gain Of s55,so0,0oo; in May. a
gain of s5.0eo.eoo. and In June, "a
loss of s2s9oo,o0Q.