The log cabin Democrat., 1921-04-20
ESTIMATE COTTON
 ACREAGE B LESS YIELD NOT so CERTAIN
Business Men Vary in Estimating 1920 Crop-Non-U Use of Fertilizer
 Big Factor.

Conway business men and bankers are fairly well agreed in estimating that the county's cotton acreage will be cut 9 per cent, but are not closely together in estimating the total yield. Opinions expressed today vary from 50 per cent of the 1920 crop to 80 per cent, taking into consideration the cut in acreage, the manner in which the crop will be generally cultivated and the non-use of fertilizer in planting. Other factors entering into the size of the 1921 crop are the selection of land for cotton and the extent to which lands has been abandoned.
 In the main, business men and bankers take it for certain that the acreage cut will be in the neighborhood of 25 per cent as compared with 1920. The use of fertilizer has been radically cut and Is now to a point where the fields thus treated will be few and far between. Conservatively estimated, not more than 20 per cent and prob ably less fertilizer will be used this year, as compared with 1920. Esti- mates on the acreage cut and the cut in fertilizer reduction are we'll bunch- ed, but the yield will be influenced by numerous other factors, and hence estimates are at variance.
 D. o. Harton, merchant and planter, thinks the acreage will be cut p per cent and the yield will fall off by one third. "Very little fertilizer is being used this year, MT. Harton said "A fertilizer salesman asked me the other day to say how much was being used in this county. I told him about 20 or 25 per cent of what was used last year, and 1 am afraid that estimate will be too high. Still, fertilizer is not used on river farms, and the loss in yield from the uplands, where fer tiliZer counts, will be offset by the bottom farms. So 1 would say the county will produce one-third less cot ton in 1921"
 Not more than one-half of a crop is seen by Henry T. Whiddon, manager for S. c. Smith, who estimates the acreage reduction at 25 per cent. "There is simply no fertilizer heinz used,' MT. Whiddon said. land you will see when the crop is in that 50 per cent is right. Last year We had placed or 10 cars of fertilizer. This year we have placed only 50 sacks. The acreage is off 25 per cent and the yield considering that the acreage is not fertilized, will be off 50 per cent"
 The view most sharply in contrast with that of Mr Whiddon is held by Leo Hamberg of the Lesser Goldman Cotton Company, who has made some close guesses at the county's yield. Mr. Hamberg thinks the acreage is cut 25 per cent, but that the production will show loss of only about 20 per cent. "The acreage reduction is going to increase the yield per acre and bring up the whole crop" Mir. Ham berg said "With less land to look after, the farmers are going to cul- tivate better and they naturally will select the best land for cotton. Of course, the lack of fertilizer will have it's effect, but I am convinced the to- tai production will not fall more than 20 per cent
 A crop which will not reach more than 10000 or 12,0O0 bales is the pre- diction of Frank Farris, vice presi- dent of the Formers State Bank Faulkner county land will not pro- duce cotton without fertilizer" Mr Farris said. So far as we know, only one carload of fertilizer has been sold in the county and the amount used is only 15 per cent at the outside, of what was used last year. The acreage cut is one-third, running as high as 50 per cent in some sections and 20 per cent in others. My estimates are on what the farmers themselves tell me. l can't see where the county can