The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-07-09
By HOLLAND

NHl not De necessary 10 walt until commercial Urea ties with Germany and Austria have been negotiated and accepted for the expected in- crease in trade, especially with Ger many, to begin. If we had been gain ing trade with the rest of the world as we have already gained with Ger many, even though We were tech nically at war with her, a different report respecting our world trade would have been published It is one of the most significant and inn portant features of our trade situa- ton that we should have been able to maintain a total trade with Ger many in the f2 months which ended on June 30. which, measured by dol lars, was S440.000,000 greater than the trade of the year which ended June 30, 1919.
 In the year which preceded the outbreak of the European war, tne end of which was only two months earlier than the march of Germany towards France. our trade with Ger many was nearly S550. .000,0O0- She was buying enormously of American raw material, especially cotton, and We were in return purchasing Ger man dye stuffs, potash and some lines of manufactured articles. When Sho war began our trdu6 With Ger many practically ceased. But it is one of the wonders of world condi- tions as they were immediately after the armistice was signed that our trade with Germany, back and forth, began immediately to increase, not slightly, but heavily. Germany needed wheat and flour, and in the past 12 months bought S65,O00 900 worth of this food from the United States. She bought almost as much bacon and lard She needed raw cot ton so that her cotton manufactur- ing industry, which normally Is very large, could begin operation. She had the expert labor, ample machn cry which was unimpaired, but she needed raw cotton. In one way or another she was able to buy Ameri- can cotton of the value of approxi- mately $100,000 900. Immediately her mills began operation, and as soon as she can get enough cotton these mills will be operated at their capacity. She was in need of copper, and partially with the aid of Amer ican credits she was able to secure copper of the value of $20,o00,000.
 It probably always will remain mystery how Germany, still on paper at war with the United States was dDlt u HesOlldlc SO Illllly dIu oO heavy purchases of American com modities in the past 12 months There prevails a suspicious that some part of the unprecedented flow of gold to the United States represents Ger many's payments for American com modites or for some of them.
 Hope Born of Production
 Earlier in the year reports were brought to the. United States which told of a deplorable condition preva- lent in Germany, especially among the peasants and others who work for wages. It is now known that these reports were not justified. ln fact. informa tion comes to New York that the German people are now bet ter clothed, better shod and better fed than some of the other nations which were our allies. The German farmers are cultivating every foot of soil within their reach. They are as diligent and as successful in util- izing all available soil as are the farmers of Holland and Denmark. There are no evidences of the war such as would be furnished if any thing like depression prevailed. It was publicly reported that a group of British business men who recently spent some weeks in Germany dis- cnNefGQ that NbTIfdny IS strong, economically sound, although the value of the mark continues to be depressed. The suspicion is that the mark is kept at its present. level for purely political reasons.
 Now that peace has been formally declared, and is to be followed by commercial treaties, it is the belief here that our trade with Germany, export and import will be so greatly increased in the next 12 months that it will amount to a greater sum than the record making trade with Ger many which was reached in the l2 months ending June 30, 1914, and which amounted to nearly $550,0oO.- 900.
 The Balance of Trade
 Although our foreign trade in the past 12 months was greatly de- creased nevertheless the Washington authorities report that there was balance in our favor somewhat in eX- cess of $2,000, 000.000. If our cotton exports had been maintained propor- tionately without exports of wheat there would have been better show ing for the year just ended than was possible for the Washington authori- ties to make. Had the rest of the world bought American cotton, as
  do then the largest part of our losses in exports would not have taken place.
 The Story of Cotton
 Some years ago one of the leading New York bankers correctly predict ed that our export of cotton. prin- cpally to Great Britain. would be in that year of the value of about Sooo,- 100000. Tn that way a favoraoie trade balance of s500,000,000 would be created. because our trade with the world upon other items substan- tially balanced, or in other words' we bought commodities of the money value of those which we sold: NOW again we can realize the. importance of American cotton in our world trade. It has given us several times LEGAL NOTICES L Letting Contract Construction
 School Building
 rsontra ct far construction of brick build