The Washington herald., 1921-05-01
GERMANY TO-DAY MUST BEGIN
TO PAY PREPARATION DEMAND
OR FRANCE MOVES ON RUEIR
Simonds Says Issue Is Wreckage of Either
France or Hun.

payment that is 5000. 100000 In
gold or kind before May /, 1891.
As the discussion proceeded after
the Paris conference had adjourned
the supreme council in fact took the
task Of fixing the sum of repara-
tions out of the hands Of the COM
mission, and after many tentative
proposals, actually served upon the
Germans In London last month q
bill which called for a total pay
ment Of $4,000. 100000. These fig-
ures should be clearly understood,
because the whole discussion has
been confused by many other de-
tails. Actually the allies said to
the Germans at London, I'VE esti-
mate that you can pay US only a
part Of what you ought to pay, but
that part we hx as having a pres
ent value Of SCI 900. .ooo, 900"
Suggests InstaIlment Plan.
or course. 1t was perfectly well
understood that Germany could not
immediately pay S21,0O0,0O0, 900
either In gold or in goods, that, in
fact. she could pay no large frac-
ton of IL on demand. What she
would have to do was to pay on the
installment plan. But paying on the
lnstallment plan she would have to
take care of both the principal and
the interest, that is, she would have
to take care OF the annual interest
on the capital sum, while paving
something each year to reduce thar
capital sum.
1t was decided by the allies, then.
that Germany should be compelled
70 pay ner debt in forty-two years,
an INSTRUMENT each year. that she
should meantime pay per cent on
tne capital. Thus her total pay
ment over forty-two years would
De soo'OOO.Oo0.000 and her average
yearly payment sl.333,333,333,
rms Is the sum which Germany re-
fused to pay at London, thus pre-
cipitating the crisis which now con-
tinues and must lead to grave con-
sequences in the next few days
But Germany not only refused in
March to comply with the allied de-
mards and undertake to meet the
payments nxed. but she had also
failed and has continued to fail to
meet the one fixed requirement of
the treaty of Versailles, namely,
that she pay in gold and in kind at
least S5.o00,o0O.000 by May I. on
this payment she stands in default
ana this default opens the way,
technically, for allies action, such
as has long been threatened.
To be sure, Germany claims that
such surrenders as she has made of
arms, of colonies and of other
things have amounted in value to
the $4,000, ,o00, 900. but this assertion
Is denied by the reparations com
mission, on which all the allied ma
tons are represented. The commits
sion estimates at less than $4,000
100000. the German payments on
tn s account and even the Germans
have been obliged to scale down ex-
travagant claims for their pay
ments.
The whole discussion at the juno.
ture which we have now reached
turns upon the single question OF
the German capacity to pay. The
Germans at London not only de-
clared that they could not pay SCI =
OOO,Oo0.0O0. but made proposals
which were accurately described as
ridiculous" by Lloyd George and
by all allied statesmen. Indeed the
German figures were so small as TO
suggest a deliberate intent to fiout
the allies and. as a consequence. the
frank British policy of moderation,
the manifest British wish to curb
any extravagant French claims, was
paralyzed and France for once saw
the British prime minister COM
PEELED to follow the French in ac-
cepting military measures against
Germany.
Divergence In Figures
From the day of the armistice to
the present moment the discussion
on the subject OF reparations has
waged. At Paris the most conflict
ing figures were presented to meas
ure German capacity. one English
man suggested $4,000, 900. 900, an
other $4,000. .00O, 900. Our own
experts ranged from $685.
900. 100000. which is approximately
the London figures. down to sI2..
: 90, 100000, which more or less coin
cides with the maximum German
offer
When you have considered all the
mass of testimony of the experts.
German and allied alike, you are
bound to conclude, first, that the
whole subject is a matter of specu-
lation, and second. that some of the
most serious problems involved con-
Germ, not German capacity to pay,
but allied capacity to absorb pay
ments not made in money. but neces-
sarily in goods. Even IL the whole
question were submitted to arbitra-
ton. granted that a neutral tribunal
could be found, and the whole world
Is interested in the matter. pecuni-
arily interested, the decision rem
dered would be largely a guess, for
there Is no possible method of prov
ng in advance what German capac-
ity to pay is or what allied capacity
to receive payment may be.
As to the sum at present fixed, all
hat one can say Is that many ex-
oerts, including some Americans, be-
lieve that Germany can pay $50, ,00o,-
100000 in forty years, which. as
have emphasized above, represents a
present or capital value of S21,O00.-
700, 900. At least their evidence Is
AS good as that presented by the
champions of the Germans and by
he Germans themselves, nor is II
ess trustworthy than the Judgment
II experts. who are less completely
influenced by any nationalistic senti-
nanf