Evening star., 1921-12-31
END SEEMS NEAR
FOR CONFERENCE
Far Eastern Crisis May De-
veIop, But Worst Is Be-
Iieved Passed.
BY PAUL SCOTT MowRER.

Copyright. 1921, by Chicago Daily News)
The seventh week Of the Washington
conference closes with the end now
apparently in sight. The great Anglo
Japanese alliance crisis, dissolved in
the four-power~ pact. and the naval
ratio crisis, are past. There may be
a far eastern crisis yet to be got
through, but the worst Is almost GER
tainly over. The conference will be
concluded, it is safe to predict, in the
following documents.
l. A four-power agreement regard
ing the Pacific.
2. A tive-power naval ratio agree
ment regarding capital ships.
3. A nine-power agreement regard
ing China, which China may or may
not agree to sign.
4. A resolution regarding Siberia.
5. Agreements regarding inundated
islands, and possibly one regarding
rules for submarine warfare.
Go to the Senate.
These agreements will then be laid
before the American Senate, which
may or may not ratify them-predic-
tions on this score varying widely in
Washington at the present time.
1t is becoming every day more clear
that at the end of the conference, two
dlametrically opposed opinions are
going to be expressed. One opinion
Will argue that the conference is
success, the other that it has been a
failure.
The opinion that the conference
has failed is based on these argu
ments: 1t has not settled the far
eastern question. 1t has left. Japan
supreme. and the United States al
most helpless, in the far east: 1t
has hurt Americas position in China.
1t has not got Japan out of Siberia
limited the possibility of naval war.
but has merely scrapped a lot of an
tiquated capital ships whose efficiency
was contested in any case. 1t has not
limited the real naval weapons OF
the future-the submarine. the light
cruiser. the destroyer. the mine layer.
the aeroplane 1t has been attended
by too great secrecy. The meaning
of the four-pOwer pact is obscure. and
its negotiation was surrounded by
an atmosphere of mystery, it perhaps
involves IA kind of moral alliance.
No Better Feeling.
Finally, the conference. in the opin-
ion of those who put forward these
estimates. has not led to better feel
ing between the nations, but on the
contrary. has led to the intensified
tion of the quarrel between Britain
and France in which British diplom-
acy has even managed to enlist
the almost unconscious aid of the
United States.
The opinion, on the contrary, that the
conference has succeeded is argued as
follows: 1t has brought about an agree
ment to limit capital ships. thereby
stopping naval race which in the end
was almost certain to lead to war. 1t
has established precedent. by this
agreement, which, in due time, can be
extended, no doubt, not only to Subma- =
1t has dissolved the Anglo-Japapese al
lance. which was officially regarded as
distinct menace to the United States.
1t has paved the way for Anglo-Ameri-
can corporation. and eliminated the
danger of Anglo-American rivalry. 1t
has led to better relations between
Japan and the United States, thereby
obviating the danger of war in the
Pacific. 1t has done more for China
than could have been accomplished in
any other way, and has set in motion
moral forces which in due time will
bring about a much better situation
throughout the far east. 1t will re-
affirm, before it is ended. the intention
of all the powers to respect the terri
torial integrity of Russia, including
Siberia.
Brings L. s. Out of Isolation.
Finally. it has associated a number of
friendly powers in number of benefi-
cent activities. thereby bringing forth
the United States from its long and
self injurious isolation, and preparing
the way for closer international CO.
operation in still other ways
1t is at once obvious that there is
certain amount of truth in both
these opposing views. Neither tells
the whole truth; but in the main.
the benefits, in my opinion. outweigh
the disadvantages. In tpe long poll
tical life of the nationS in the long.
difficult struggle to work out some
better plan of cooperation between
the many countries of the world. there
can be no such word as failure
Reason for Satisfaction.
No single Conference.-The more at
Washington than at Paris-can bring
about the millennium in which so many
people still seem fervently to believe.
If a little good is accomplished, that
is a great deal. When the good out
weights the bad, as three years ago
in Paris, and as now in Wshington
there is reason for satisfaction, not
for satisfaction, and
for fresh hopes, renewed endeavors, a
profounder searching of the heart, a
kindlier effort at mutual understand
ing. No goal is final. All that can be
asked or expected is progress: and
that progress has been achieved here
in Washington surely no one can