The New York herald., 1921-02-04
Germany's Counter Propo-
sails Expected to Be Based
on Conference With
America.
TERMS NOT PREPARED
Foreign Trade With This
Country Vital in Gaug-
ing Ability of Teutons
to Pay.
MONARCHY TALK REVIVES
Wrangle Over Payments to the
Allies Gives Strength to
Movement Toward
Royalty.
MONARCHY TALK REvIvES
BY RAYMOND SWING.

BY RAYMOND SWING.
Special Cable to THE New YORK HERALD.
Copyright, 1891. bv THE New York HERALD.
New York Herald Bureau.
Berlin, Feb. 3.
Germany's counter proposals in con-
rection with the Allies reparations
terms may wait until after peace is
declared by America. Not that the
German Cabinet has decided to wait
until Mr.. Harding is inaugurated
President Of the United States and
to let the London conference late this
month lapse. but a strong sentiment
In this direction is making itself felt
here. The opinion is that Germany
would be unwise in discussing her ca
pacity to pay until she had conferred
with America.
1T is reasoned that since America
ranked as one of the first factors In
Germany's foreign trade before the
war she must now play vital role in
the reparations settlement, inasmuch
AS Germany's payments will be chiefly
in exports.
The argument is that solution Of the
reparations problem depends on Ger
many changing the balance OF trade
from one against her TO one In her
favor, and that this can be done only
through credits. Since England and
France are not believed to be able to
extend these credits, Germany. 1t Is
held, must find It imperative to post
pone any conclusive. discussion OF the
reparations question until America has
been listened to.
Conditions BADLY Confused.
There is another reason why Ger
many may not make any definite coun-
ter proposals on February 2S. when she
is summoned to meet the Entente Pow
ers in London. That Is the simple rea-
son that the German experts them
selves have not agreed regarding what Is
Germany's capacity to pay. This state
ment may appear incredible to any one
who is not familiar with the confused
conditions in German business and poll
tics. But 1t is true that an official ap-
praisal OF Germany's available re-
sources has never been completed.
two groups. one of them representing
the so-called Schwerindustrie, or coal
and iron industries; the other represent
ing principally financial interests. The
differences between these two groups
came to a forcible expression at Spa.
where the industrlalists. among whom
Hugo SHINES ls a leading figure. OPP
posed the signing OF the Spa agreement
and then prophesied a disastrous paraly-
sis OF German industry within few
months II increased coal deliveries were
made TO the Entente Powers. The finan-
ciers held that the industriaiists were
overstating their case, and subsequent
developments have borne out their opin-
ion. These general differences OF opin-
ion might be assumed to be the chief
reason why Germany has SO far failed
to formulate concrete proposals.
Negotiations have been renewed look
ing to the enlarging of the Government
Coalition. but they arc not expected to
lead to results. The initiative for the
renewal OF these negotiations was said
to have come from the Conservatives.
who two days ago declined to enter the
Ministry. What II would mean to have
this outspokenly monarchst party enter
the Cabinet may be read in the comment
by the Conservative press on the decla-
rations by Or. Walter Simons. Foreign
Minister. In the Reichstag.
What we missed was a manly word"
one editorial said.
Dr. Siinons. said another newspaper
here. should have plainly said that now.
since the Entente has departed from
the Versailles treaty, Germany would
no longer consider herself bound by II.
May Restore Monarchy.
u is not impossible. in the opinion of
many competent political observers here,
that the outcome Of the reparations
wrangie will he eventually TO restore
nonarchism In Germany. The Prussian
elections. which will be held on Feb
ruary 90, are certain 10 show. II Ia be-
iieved. n great gain by the Nationalists.
This gain would not be impossible Of
duplication In the Reichstag elections II
Parliament were dissolved now.
Even such an ardent separatist anti
PrussIan and pro-F'rench body as the
Rhineland Federationist party an
nounced to-day u would withdraw from
the election campaign and postpone It's
fight for freedom from Prussia.
Should the monarchy be restored. II
Is admitted by tho monarchists them
selves that II would have TO be Of lib
cral nature in order TO avoid labor up
rising.
But many political leaders who have
heretofore stanchly defended the repub-
lic are now ready TO compromise on a
Kingdom after the English pattern N II
would go to reduce the bitter. wasteful
antagonsm apparent In political life
here.
GERMANY GIVES UP STEAMER