The daily times., 1921-12-02
EXPECTED TO AGREE
The Question of Forti6cations
and Naval Bases in the Pa
cifc Will Probably be
Brought up by Japan as
Conditions to Her Final Ac-
ceptance Of Terms.
(By David Lawrence
Copyright, 1921, BY The Daily


Washington, D. c., Dec Whats
behind the japanese reluctance to ac-
cept the American figures fixing the
ratio of present naval strength on a
basis of S for Great Britain, 5 for
the United States and for Japan?
This correspondent has had an op-
portunity to examine the Official cor
respondence passing between Japan
and the United States in the secret
sessions wherein the American navy
explains in detail the method by
which the 5-5-3 ratio was fixed 1t is
an open and shut case. The formula
used takes account first of the Japa-
nese estimate of her own strength
based upon the tonnage figures she
herself furnished, and also takes into
! account every contention made by
Japanese and works out finally to
5-5-3 every time. 1t is plain piece
of arithmetic and the quandary of all
who have had chance to learn how
the American program was worked
out is what possible. objection the
Japanese have to it's acceptance.
The conclusion being generally
reached, partly from things the
Japanese themselves are saying and
partly from the hints they let fall in
the secret sessions. is that the Japa-
nese are getting ready to, agree alb
sofutely to the American estimate OF
existing naval strength but are plan
ming to condition their acceptance up
on another agreement with respect
for Notifications and naval bases in
the Pacific. This question has here
ftofore not been raised by the Japa-
'nese in the official conference though
| in the meetings with the pres the
Japanese delegates have emphasized
the Importance of Notifications.
The American delegation does not
fear the Introduction of the fortlfica-
ltion problem though of course it will
hardly wish to explore that contro-
lversial field until a definite under
standing has been reached on the
basis of the original Hughes program
concerning limitation and reduction
of vessels afloat as well as under
construction.
When Notifications are considered,
1.-The view of the American delegation
will be found to be most generous.
The Japanese cannot contend that
the bases of the United States in the
Pacific are of any value, American
naval experts say, if the Hughes pro-
gram of reduced strength goes into
leffect. What the japanese really want
lis a promise that the United States
Twill not build up her present fortifi-
|cations or add new bases. This pledge
lprobably would be forthcoming if re-
lciprocated by the Japanese.
| Naval bases bear a distinct rela-
Itionship to naval strength if they are
Sufficiently near the scene Of possible
, naval operations If the United States
were to conduct an offensive wal
against Japan, the naval base at Cav
lite, in the Philippines, would have to
lbe much more effective, it is contend
ed by the American experts, than 1t Is
lat present and the very fact that II
has not been REINFORCED, the Ameri-
lean contend, is proof of the Pacific in
tentions OF the United States. The
lforti6cation OF Guam. however, II
sconsidered by America as more Of
defense of Hawaii than an outpos
,ifor ofense though, to be sure. thu
American view is that the Japanes'
themselves know how little value ART
the present facilities at Guam.
2 The trouble is the japanese hav'
not yet made clear what It Is the!
}. lido want il they agree as seems In
eyitable to the 5-5-3 ratio. The Amer
). ican delegates have explained o
lcourse that the Japanese are no
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