The Washington herald., 1921-12-02
PARLEY AT CRISIS,
WITH GUAM ASKEY,
SIMONDS BELIEVES
Japan Not Apt to Yield
Until Menace" Is
Removed.
By FRANK H. SIMONDS.

By FRANK H. SIMONDS.
When the japanese mention the
subject of Guam, all the cards will
be on the table. We Europeans
have not been surprised that you
Americans have not appreciated
from the start what was the real
fact in the strategy OF the Pacific.
This comment from one Of the dele
gates representing a European ma
tion at the conference fairly well
summarizes one current view OF
the present deadlock over the ma
val ratios, which is the outstanding
circumstance OF the conference al
the present hour.
There are, of course, two ex-
plantations Of the japanese attitude
The simpler is based upon the as
sumption that the japanese actual
ly mean what they say and are
conducting an open offensive to re-
tain or obtain a greater proper
tionate strength for their fleet
Those who hold this view main
tain that we are seeing the hand
of the naval and military grOuI
who control Japanes- policy and
are stalking all upon the pr--eH,
I issue.
Objective May he Masked.
The second explanation. more In
volved. but also more commonly ac'
cepted. is that the naval demon
stration masks the real objective
and that this real objective Is
either single. and directed toward
obtaining the elimination of exist
ing fortifications and the promise
not to build again on Guam. ol
double. and includes with the Guam
proposition the insurance of Japs
nese position in Manchuria-
OF course. from the Japanese na
val point Of view Guam is th'
single menace. Unless our position
there is transformed and we con
struCt a first class naval base w
can neither defend the Philippine
nor strike at Japan in case Of war
Without the Guam base We ar
powerless west of the Hawaiian
Islands. Guam is the true key L
the Pacific situation and the rea
price Japan might demand for &C
cepting our figures as TO nava
! ratios.
For our naval men. at least, Guar
is the ''nigger in the wOodpile." al
/ though the Nanchurian issue. whicl
( shall dwell upon presently, Ia
/ its Importance.
Menace 10 Peace.
Whether or not we accept Tn
/ first explanation given. it is plai
I that there is a steadily mountin
/ danger that, whatever the intentio
! originally, the Japanese contentio
over the naval ratio may easil
become serious. Everyone remem
/ bers the case Of Fiume at the Pari
/ conference. At the outset Italia
/ claims based upon the Treaty q
London were not taken very seri
! ously-especially by Americans Blu
an intense domestic prOpag ganda &
Italy so reused Italian national sen
] timent that when Mr.. Wilson ap
pealed over Orlando's head, Ital
responded with a passionate revol
/ against the American position an
totally transformed the situation.
Now. il is clear that it will TAX
very little to invest the naval issu
with a patriotic character in Japa
and make the issue in washingto
/ one between America and Japan
| make il appear a dispute IN whic
/ national prestige is involved. L
/ that case recession by Japan he
! comes almost unthinkable, and tn
consequences must be grave m tn
! extreme.
Moreover. il is plain that ever
! day this debate continues increase
( the danger that Japanese popUa
] h. ID,
/ listed. Thus it might be who'll
/ possible that a position originall
taken for trading purposes woul
become a position which nations
honor required should be helc
| Therefore delay-every hour an
/ every day Of delay in settling thi
question-adds to the danger an
diminishes the chance that settle
nent can be reached by a Japanes
surrender based upon any Japanes
bargain elsewhere.
Basis of bargaining.
As to the second explana ton
Jaran yesterday showed quite clear
Ily that she would concede nothin,
!. of Importance in Manchuria, an,
was disposed to dispute ShantunI
sharply, although by contrast sh
was willing to yield materially il
the case of China proper and o
Siberia. But pending a fsvorabl'
settlement in the Far East, whs
would be more natural than tina
she would hold fast to her nava
contentious as her basis for bar
gaining?
OF course, the truth is that tn
Japanese policy is based upon th'
realization that failure Of tn
Washington conference would be |
disaster for all the Western nations
to whom she owes nothing, anS
might prove a serious factor in thu
next American election. Thre
years ago Japan successfully black
mailed President Wilson, into tn