Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1921-06-20
FACTS ON WHEAT PRICES.

The Herald has referred frequently to the very prev
aent belief that wheat prices arc materially lower In
the fan than in the spring. and that persons Interested in
the manipulation of the wheat market are in the habit
OF depressing the prices In the fall in order that they may
ouy the farmers grain at the low price, and advancing
II the following summer months in order that they may
unload at top figures. Some months ago the Herald rub
ltshed q table Of figures taken from the onacial market
records OF the Chicago board Of trade, covering a period
OF - years, beginning with 1898, and it was shown in
this table that while there had been fluctuations in wheat
prices, these fluctuations were not confined to anv par-
ucular months nor was 1t true that during those years
wheat had been materially higher in the fall than in the
spring. The 20 years include the entire war period and
subsequent years during which the conditions were alb
normal: but eliminating those years, it was shown that
the average prices for the IL months for the preceding
period of ~1sss-1s1s inclusive had been as follows. begin
ming with January: csc. SIC. &c, CSC, $101, Sl.02, sec,
CSC, sSc. &c, SAC, &c. The spread between the highest
and lowest price in this period was SC.
In view of the constant repetition of the old fable,
1t Is well enough to renew consideration of the facts.
The facts are beyond dispute as they are matters Of rec
ord which can be verified by anyone who cares to take
the trouble to verify them. The table shows that the
lowest average for the period was that of November.
Ine september average is sSc, &c higher. The highest
average Is for June. The farmer who during those years
had had an opportunity to sell his. wheat in September
and instead OF doing so, had held 1t until the following
June, taking care each year to get the very highest price
recorded on the markets during June, would have re-
ceived just &c a bushel more than IL he had sold right
from the machine. He would have had storage charges
to pay, and from the amount received he would have
been obliged to deduct interest on money lying idle dur
ing that time. 1t Is quite apparent that he would nave
lost money. 1t has not been a profitable thing year in
and year out to hold wheat from fall until summer.
Another feature which must be taken into connd-
eradon u the fact that no man can tell whether the price
offered In a given month is the highest price obtainable
or not In some cases one would have done better to
sell in January than In June. In other cases the contrary
- true, and in some years, each month has been the at
racdve month In which to sell. That fact could not be
known until too late to take advantage Of it The indi-
vtdual must use his judgment in all cases and it is quite
certain that in the course of is or 20 years, each year
containing IL months, his judgment would have been at
fault in a good many cases. 1t is clear therefore that
while the record shows what could lave been done, It
does not by any means indicate what would have been
done. When We take into consideration the uncertainty
OF whether wheat Is going up or down a few cents, the T.
cent margin between the average price of September and
the following June would disappear. and instead Of profit
there would be shown a loss.