Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial., 1921-11-05
Armament Conference
and Business
BY Roger W. Babson
tAu rights strictly re~rvod)

"A tremendous help to business if
II is successful, hard blow II II fails,
this Conference which convenos on
November 1ith Is the most important
business event since the armistice. The
possible benefit from tho immediate
saving In armament expenditures Is
only one important feature of the
Conference. The keen business mans
interest lies in the fact that the con-
ference practically decides whether
Europe shall be pulled through or per-
mittcd TO go into bankruptcy. About
e5 per cent Of government expenses
today represent the cost OF wars. past.
present, and future. and over 20 per
cent Of these total expenditures repre-
sent tho present cost Of armament.
"Thc immediate relief which the
Conference offers lies in the hope that
IL viii bring about n peaceable un-
Outstanding between England. France.
Japan and tho United States. II is
my conviction that mono of these ma
tons have Mt heart any aims or
schemes which. II the cards are all
laid ON the table. cannot be adjusted
Ia peace and harmony. Accomplish
this and you have eliminated the great
est barrier 10 commercial revival OF
Europe. As TO the financial outlook of
certain OF the European governments
| can see no cure short OF eomplete
reorganization. but credit machine
can be established which viii safely
allow merchants aud manufacturers
or Europe TO set their factories and
businesses running and gradually put
tho people OF Europe back to work.
When people have asked mo II
they should buy European securities.
have advised against IL, because
there was no assurance as 10 what
their money would be used for. To
furnish Europe money 10 buy raw ma
terials and carry ON "A profitable husi-
ness is one thing; 20 supply money
Tor building battlcships and keeping
lot OF idle soldiers is another, from
the investors standpoint. on tho first
proposition you stand 10 get your
money back with interest: on the SOC
end you are simply throwing your
money away. The greatest thing which
the Conference can do, therefore, Is
10 bring about a frank understanding
between the principal countries Tear
Gown the present joalousies and In
trisue between the leading nations,
substitute in their place the common
sense of cooperation and YOU will
have n basis upon which almost un-
limited credit could safely be extended
I'm the meantime foreign hoi.ds can
be watched with interest. l thus far
have advised against purchasing
I foreign bonds. especially while such
good Investments are available in the
tnitod States. IT, however. the Con-
ference r. success and money rates
continue 20 decline, foreign bonds may
become attractive. The best foreign
Investments are those Of Switzerand,
Belgium and the Scandinavian ooun-
trios. together with certain municipals.
The best speculations are in Chinese.
Japanese. French. Italian and Russia
be ds. The latter now selling around
is and desplsed by everyone may oe
worthy OF study.
"ff the conference fails Il will indi-
cate that the great nations are hope
lcssly at odds and as soon as they get
their breath they win start fighting
again, Money lent on such a basis
would probably be lost. II you are
planning 20 buy foreign securities or
foreign money. therefore, wait and see
what happens at the Conference.
Remember also that the future OF
I Europe has a great deal TO do with
| the future Of America. Peace and re-
I construction in Europe means peace
and better business in America. War
and bankruptcy in Europe means.
perhaps war. but at least continued
hard times In America. Remember
I that while you may have nothing TO
do with foreign trade. foreign trade
7 has lot 70 do with you. Hence,
urge every foresighted man and wo-
man 20 get behind President Harding
and help him 20 carry through his
rart in this Conference TO Reduce
Arrnaments.
The increase in general business
which set In n few weeks ago has been
checked Whether or not this is mere
Isl temporary cannot be told at the
moment. II will. however. be treated
I ~ FUN in n statement which / shall
I issue next week. Meanwhile, il should
be remembered that the Bsbsouchart
which reached a low point of 80 per
cent below normal in March 1921 rose
/ 90 Is per cent below normal In Sep
tombsr and has now reacted TO 20 per