New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1921-04-03

too many, indeed, if the period of
shortage was over. Cotton and wool
and leather and silk began to fall. The
problem was now to market the cor
nered goods. But if prices were going
to 4aIl-goods easy to find-the whole
snlers thought it we'll not to load up
further, but to reduce stocks instead.
BUT the retailers were thinking it
better to wait, concessions were likely.
They had goods enough already, espec-
tally If there was to be difficulty in
selling them.
Seek to Aroid Losses
The retailers had no great dis
position to accept losses; better to
sit tight. Nor was the situation likely
to get better with slaughter sales. The
public had taken hold of the idea that
Prices were to fall. To cut prices
would simply drive deeper the con-
victlon; prices, no matter how low,
would not be low enough; they prom
Used to be still lower with still more
waiting. So the retailers were work
ing off their stocks slowly and were
holding off from all new buying The
wholesalers, still the more, were try
ing to reduce stocks and were declin-
ing to take the current output from
the factories. The factory folks were
still the more declining to absorb the
rewly emerging SURPRISES of supplies
could not market what the old sup
plies would make up into-did not
want to make for stock on restricted
and falling market-and decided to
ay of men or to close the works.
The general principle? With dura
BILE goods. goods that don't dete riorate,
ho bad fo- ,,kt.
vestment properties where there is no
hurry. falling prices retire demand
rather than stimulate it-set it to wait
ing rather than to buying. Rising
prices stimulate rather than discour-
age the buying disposition. No one is
keen to buy on falling market or to
sell on a rising.
so long as one buying to resell must
resell cheaper he will not buy. And
if he is buying for use he will wait for
cheaper prices whenever waiting prom
Uses to bring them Everything that is
speculative breaks the usual market
formulas. The entire situation was
speculative, because money, the pivot
of 1t all. had been allowed to become
speculative. When dollars get un-
steady, all things else are. Our fnan-
cial policies had set everything else
to drifting, because they had set the
dollar to drifting
Then the Revival
But when the end Of the sag ap
pears to have arrived the buying viii
resume. When their stocks are run
ming out the retailers will have to
order: When the mills open the pub
lie will infer that it has waited long
rat,
Then more orders for the wholesalers
Then the wholesalers will be needing
still more goods from the factories
Then things will be ready for the gen
eral upturn. Each of the processes,
upgrade and down grade. works cupu-
latively because it works speculatively
There is nothing that finally can
prevent the recovery-excepting pos
sibly the obstinacy of labor that will
not allow production to take place,
or the sit-tight obstinacy of monopo-
listic production. And even this will
not prevent price recovery. but only
an industrial recovery the more i'm
portant thing. Nobody wants to stop
it. 1t is as wholesome as it is inevita-
ble-~if it does not go further than
wholesome equipoise between produc-
ton and consumption. But 1t will prob
ably go further. 1t will, if the credit
policy leaves it the room.
And just as the preceding swing of
speculation upward was followed by
its inevitable reaction, swing to the
contrary extreme. SO this next recov-
cry will probably go to it's extreme and
be followed by its appropriate sag
unless the public, getting tired of this
endless see-saw,, imposes a new policy
on the credit control of the country.
1t is only the stabilizing of prices
against rise that can protect them
against the fan-unless. indeed, the
rise of prices is to- be endless. Get
ready, therefore. for recovery in buy.
ing and recovery in prices. And If
the recovery is to be allowed to go far
is not checked by credit limitations
be further making ready for the
later eorYslative sag.