Evening star., 1921-12-01
JAPANESE MAY ASK
PLEDGE ON PACIFIC
IN ACCEPTING RATIO
Believed Ready to Agree Ab-
soIuteIy on U. S. Proposal,
But Want Condition.
AMERICANS TO PROMISE
IF JAPAN REClPROCATES
Future Building on Naval Bases
and Fortifcations, Not Dis
mantling, at Stake.
ny DAVID LAWRENCE.

BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
What's behind the Japanese reluet-
ance TO accept the American hgures
fixing the ratio OF present naval
strength on basis of . for Great
Britain, for the United States and 3
for Japan.
The writer has had an opportunity
to examine the officiahcorrespondence
passing between Japan and the United
states in the secret sessions wherein
the American Navy explains in detail
the method by which the 5-5-3 ratio
was fixed. 1t is an open-and- shut case.
The formula used takes account first
OF the Japanese estimate of her own
strength based upon the tonnage fig
ures she herself furnished, and also
takes into account every contention
made by the japanese and works out
finally tc a 5-5-3 every time. 1t is Il
plain piece of arithmetic and the
uuandary of all who have had a
chance to learn how the American
program was worked out is what pos
sib!c objection the Japanese have to
its acceptance.
Naval Bases May he Issue.
The conclusion being generally
reached. partly from things the Jap
anese themselves are saying and
partly from the hints they let fall
in the secret sessions, is that the
Japanese are getting ready to agree
absolutely to the American estimate
"f existing naval strength, but are
planning to condition their acceptance
upon another agreement with respect
for fortifcations and naval bases in
the Pacific. This question has hereto
fore not been raised by the Japanese
i'll the official conferences, though in
the meetings with the press the Jap
anese delegates have emphasized the
Importance of Notifications.
The American delegation does not
fear the introduction of the fortifica-.
ton problem. though, of course, it
viii hardly wish to explore that con-
trpSersal field until a definite under
standing has been reached on the
concerning limitation and reduction
ci vessels afioat as we'll as under
construction.
American View Generous.
When fortifications are considered,
the view of the American delegation
w,Il be found to be most generous.
? ne Japanese cannot contend that the
b., SEES of the United States in the Pa
eific are of any value, American naval
experts say. If the Hughes program
of reduced strength goes into effect.
What the Japanese really want is a
I.oTse that the United States will
not build up her present fortifications
o. add new bases. This pledge prob
ably would he forthcoming if recip-
rocated by the japanese.
Naval bases bear a distinct relation
snip to naval strength II they are
Sufficiently near the scene of possi-
nle naval operations. If the United
States were to conduct an offensive
var against Japan, the naval base at
Gavite, in the Philippines. would have
to be much more effective, it is con-
tended by the American experts, than
il is at present. and the very fact that
it has not been reinforced, the Amer
leans contend, is proof of the pacific
intentions of the United States. The
fortifcation of Guam, however, is
considered by America as more of
defense of Hawaii than an outpost
for offense, though, to be sure, the
American view is that the Japanese
themselves know how little value are
the present facilities at Guam.
Desire Not Made Clear.
The trouble is the Japanese have not
yet made clear what it is they do want
If they agree. as seems inevitable. to
the 5-5-3 ratio. The American dele
gates have explained, of course, that the
japanese are not eager to take into ac-
count vessels under construction. OF
course, il these are eliminated the
5-5-3 ratio would be disturbed. but
the American contention is that a ves-
sci on which money has been spent is
to that extent part of country's ex-
listing naval strength. First the Japa-
nese contended that predreadnaughts
reed not be excluded, even though more
than twenty years old. Americas ex-
merits included them and still came to
a 5-5-2 result. The representatives
of the United States went still further
and included the Mutsu in the Japanese
estimate of her own strength, as a part
N completed vessel, and still reached
5-5-3 conclusion. The japanese for
continental reasons want to keep the
Nutsu, as she is 9S per cent complete,
hut the United States has a battleship
of similar strength also nearly COM
Melted, and the original proposal to
scrap everything under construction still
stands.
stands Firm on Principle.
Secretary Hughes is arguing that
IF once the principle is violated the
whole structure of the American pro-
posals is broken down. He~insists
that the vessels under construction
must be counted in any ratios and
must be scrapped. The United States
has spent $3.50, 200. 900 already on
ships in the process of building and
the American delegation has told the
Japanese that the public opinion Of
this country would not countenance
The loss Of such q large sum of money
unless Japan was willing also ito
scrap everything she was building.
In other words, the sentimental fond
ness Of the Japanese for the Mutsu
tinental fondness for the $3S0.000,000
already spent by America
The big issue Is slowly emerging,
however. 1t is not the dispute over
latios of existing strength but forti-
fi-ations and. collateral matters on
which the japanese are not eager to
a;.ree at once. The attitude Of the
coaferees does not indicate hopeless
ssess but confidence that the differ
fees which have appeared Will soon
be resolved.
Copyright. 1871