Evening star., 1921-03-13
motor INDUSTRY
/ NOT G0INe:SMASH
Haynes Offsial SO Says in
! Citing Possible Future De-
- '
! mand of U. S. for Autos.

'Perhaps no industry has felt the
changing conditious incident I'd the re
adjustment period through which We are
now passing. more sharply than has the
automobile industry" declares Alton g.
Seiberling. vice president and general
manager of the Haynes company, and
because the demand for AUTOMOBILES on
the part Of the buying public has fallen
or somewhat, tne question has been
raised in many quarters As {" .whether
the automobile industry would continue
to flourish or whether il would dwindle
away and gradually become extinct.
Not Going To smash.
"PeSsimistic talk relative TO the flu
ture of the automobile industry is rem
Of the facts The auto industry is not
gong to smash. |; iS here To stay Il
has been built on "A solid foundation be
cause il has became indIspt nSable 10
modern life and business. To-day IL has
become as much a part oI the social
fabric as electric lights and wearing
apparel.
should any one say that the railroads
of this country were doomed 10 obhNiou
in the near future. he would be- laughed
at. But authoritative figures snow that
the automobile is a greater and NOR"
comprehensive transportation factor IN
America than the railroads
According TO constrvauv" statistics
there are. i'll round numbers. ,.o"u.noa
motor vehicles in the United States to-
day. The average yearly mileage of
each car is 5000 miles. making total
mileage for all cars OF Sl,o0o. .oOt,0ou
miles. Another conservative estimate OF
three persons per car places the total
passenger mileage at o.. 10000, oOo. Ac-
cording to the figures given out by the
Association of Railway Executives for the
year 1919. the yearly passenger mileage
of the railroads was 46. 600 .000. 900 miles.
eenger mileage of the automobiles in the
United States is 1900, 100000 miles
greater than that of all the railroads
in the country. To carry the compari-
son further. the automobiles in 1919
carried 4 500, 900, 900 passengers, whereas
the railroads in 1918 carried 1.124 600. 900
passengers. according TO the figures of
the Interstate Commerce Commission.
Business Uses 30 Per Cent.
Additional figures prove that 10 per
cent only of the cars are used exclusive
ly for pleasure. and that 80 per cent of
them are used mainly for business
These same figures prove further that
the average car owner adds 81 per
cent to his output through the use of
the automobile. Because of the auto
mobile. 100000 families have been en-
abied to live in the suburbs and other
because 10 per cent of the automo-
biles in use are used for pleasure pur-
poses it is no more right to call the
Industry non-essential and luxury
than il would be to say the telephone
IL a luxury merely because certain
per cent of the calls are purely for so
cial purposes. 1t is estimated. at the
very earliest. that the 'saturation point.
and by that is meant the point at which
the entire potential market is saturat-
ed with automobiles, is ten years dis
tant.
PosibIe Future Demand.
Using this figure as basis. and
estimating the life of the average car
to be eight years it will take approx
mately 100000 automobiles to meet the
demand in 1928. Thus. the indications
are that the automobile companies of the
United States will permanently require
all their present producing capacity and
a little bit more. because as yet the
greatest combined output did not reach
the 100000 mark.
These are our reasons for stating
that the automotive industry has come
to stay. and that il will continue tC
flourish throughout the years. One wei
known authority has stated that 'tht
g.eatest single productive force in the
development of the United States in the
past twenty years has been the auto
mobile The present readjustmen'
period, which is now nearing compile