The Washington herald., 1921-05-13
World Depends Again on
Germans Good
Faith.
WILL LOOK TO U. S.
FOR IMMENSE LOAN
War Is Almost Certainty
Should BOche Fail
On Payments.
By FRANK III. SIMONDS.


ultimatum issued by the conference
at London represents at least the
postponement of a military action
which would have unquestionaoiy
halted all economic rehabilitation
of the world At best. it may prove
the beginning of real readjustment
But once more, as always. the world
is thrown back upon the question
of German good faith. Germany
has done no more than sign its
name to what may ysG prove an
other scrap of paper.
Proves French Claims.
The French contention that Ger
many recognizes only force has
been amply vindicated by the fact
that Germany has accepted terms
which represent the maximum of
moderation under the threat Of i'm
mediate military occupation of the
richest Industrial area of the Ger
man empire. 1t has required a new
French mobilization to bring about
this submission. Will IT require
another mobilization to bring about
actual compliance with the terms?
II may be concluded at once that
the army which the French have
brought to the Rhine opposite the
Ruhr district will not be demobo-
lized until the German government
has compelled the Bavarian State
to disband its irregular army of
100000 men. which constitutes a
plain violation OF the treaty of
Versailles and under the terms of
the new ultimatum must be le-
mobilized within a brief delay.
Must Pay s:5o.oOo.ooo
II is similarly certain that the
French will not demobolize until
the Germans shall have paid the
$3.50. .OOO. 900. which under the Lon
don decision becomes due on or be-
fore June / and constitutes the first
payment under the London agree
ment.
Conceivably Germany will not
recognize the fact that she has lost
the war and that she must pay. The
terms which have been imposed upon
her call for an annual payment of
$3.50. 100000. That is the maximum
that will be demanded until such
time as German prosperity warrants
an increase in the burden
Reparation Equals Loans.
In reality Germany will pay to
her conquerors just about the sum
which our European allies are bound
to pay TO the United States on loans
advanced during the war. The sum
is only about twice as great as Italy
must pay her allies for loans, and
il is only twice as large as France
must pay Great Britain and the
United States.
Everything now depends upon the
ability of the allies 20 market the
sI2.5O0. .0o0. 900 of bonds which Ger
many will issue to her creditor con-
querors between now and Novem-
ber l. The French share of this sum
Is approximately s6.500.0o0. 900.
Look TO America.
Americans might Just as well rec
ognize now as any time that what
Europe hopes and expects is that
absorb these German bond issues.
II it does not the fiscal condition of
the French treasury and of the
italian treasury will not be i'm
proved materially. Under the pres
ent terms France will receive an
annual interest payment from Ger
many of approximately 100000.
600. This is a mere drop in the
bucket Unless the bonds can be
marketed and marketed substantial
ly at par no great relief will DC
derived from their issue.
Exactly in the same way Germans
hope and expect that, having sigr-
ed this agreement, they will be en-
abled to enlist American capital for
their own rehabilitation. and they
will unquestionably endeavor to
make loans over here on terms
which may easily interfere with the
sale Of the other repsrations bonds
Have Avoided War.
What has been accomplished SO
far Is negative. We have at least
temporarily avoided a new war, 4
fresh invasion which might easily
have proven fatal to the already
shaken economic structure of Eu-
rope This may be beginning, but
II can only be a beginning.
The success or failure of the ar
rangement must depend ultimately
on the success or failure of the
hotation of the German bonds.
In bringing about the present
German surrender. two factors have
been decisive-first. the French mo-
bilization, and. second, the clear
demonstration by the new admins
tration in Washington of the fact
that Germany could not look to the
United States for any support in
resisting just payments. At London,
Germany relied upon English and
italian support. endeavoring to play
her old game of dividing the allies.
In Washington she carried on a
similar offensive. The failure of
both operations has again demon
strated that the world believes Ger
many should pay up to her ca
pacity.
All depends now on whether the
German will recognize the truth and
accept just decision, or. as so fire.
quently in the past. he will sign
under pressure, with every intention
Of evading performance II he doe.
this, the combined influence of all
the other allies will not be suf-
heisnt next time 70 restrain France.