Pullman herald. [volume] (Pullman, W.T. [Wash.]) 1888-1989, 1921-02-18

30.000.000 bushels of wheat of the
figure for the crop estimate, it is SAT-
er to use the lower figure The total
wheat available is 90O,000,000 bush
els. Out of 900,000,000 bushels we
ought to be able to export 100000
0G0. 1t would leave US with a very
small carryover on July list. Exports
from July ! to October o were about
125,O00,000 bushels. At the rate at
which wheat has been going out, this
volume of expectation will be attend
ed with few transportational diff
culties.
The figure of 200,000,0O0 bushels
for Canada is based upon the crop
figure of 29O,000,0O0 bushels. Can
ada has once exported more than
this. The trade in Canada regards
the official forecast as too high
The figure given for India, 15,
0O0,0 900 bushels, is the amount Off
cially designed for export to date.
The last crop was reported as nearly
100000 tons. This should have
afforded 60,00O,000 to 100000
bushels for export. The early mon
soon was not satisfactory and this
made the government cautious. The
wheat crop of India is not yet made
and if adverse climatic conditions per-
s'st, expectation may be embargoed.
But the chief reason for restriction
lies in increased consumption in In
dia. During the past three years the
consumption of wheat and rice in In
dia has been much more than in the
pre-war period, an expression of in
creased buying power. Today the
European workman has not such a
production of commodities desired by
the East Indian as to enable him to
draw wheat heavily from India.
Australia and Argentine are prac-
tically empty of wheat The figures
given represent the exportable sur
pluses to be expected out of the new
crops in the coming January, as
sumed to be normal
The figure for the Balkans in
Guides the eXportable SURPRISES of
Bulgaria, Roumania and the King
dom of the Serbs, Croats and Slo-
ycnes, reported to the writer by the
residents in Europe and in
touch with the situation Undoubt-
edly the grain is there, but who is to
buy it? Germany, Italy, Poland and
Austria ought to buy it, Poland and
Austria have little to offer in ex-
change; Germany and Italy not much
more, in the present state of their
industries. Italy is able to supply
the Balkan states textiles manufac-
tured by water power, but she can
not offer machinery, hardware. or
shoes. Poland purchased some 49,
600 tons in the Balkans, probably all
she can finance. During the COM
ing year her exports will be limited
to petroleum, salt, and lumber. She
can not use these exclusively for
purchase of food because she must
also import coal. Austria has DO
tentially few exports outside of
manufactured articles and these she
can not produce on account of scare
ity of coal and raw materials. The
Balkan states will not sell on credit.
They can not accept the paper money
OF Poland, Austria, Germany, and
Italy. They want manufactured
goods-clothing, shoes, agricultural
hardware and soforth-
or bills of exchange on nations that
can furnish these commodities. The
United Kingdom, France, Belgium,
and other Europe find it more ad-
Vantageous to secure wheat from
overseas than from the Balkans. The
Balkan states had last year an ex-
portable surplus of 3O,000,00O to
4O,OOO,OO0 bushels of wheat. Most
OF it was fed to animals, because no
no one in Europe could buy it. 1t IS
likely that most of the exportable
wheat of the Balkans will again be
fed to animals, because no one can
buy it.
Russia we disregard entirely. Cen
trail Russia has suffered failure of
the rye crop, In any event, grain
could not be moved out of Russia. if
there were an exportable surplus. on
account of breakdown of transport.
The condition of Russia is almost as
distressing for Europe as for herself.
1t is clear from these figures that
the imports and exports practically
balance. If the importing nations
consume the lowest stated amounts.
the world might have a carryoyer OF
100, 100000 bushels (more or less
practically negligible as
a world carryoyer. If consumption