The New York herald., 1921-12-12
STEED PENS GRAPHIC PICTURE OF BIRTH OF NEW PEACE

may decide 10 oppose lhe 'redty, Aol
only insist upon ignoring this vast
difference but assert that '.in agreeing
to participate in any group arrange
ment with foreign Puwers the Harding
Administration is stultifying itself
and accepting the principles OF the
League OF Nations"
Just how many Republicans and
Democrats will be Influenced by this
view of the new treaty Is a matter
OF speculation. The present Senate
consists Of sixty Republicans and
,E- rty-six Democrats. To ratify the
treaty sixty-four votes will be neces-
sary, so that On a straight party divi-
sion there would not be the necessary
vote to accomplish It.
Government officials concede the
probability of few Republican Sena-
tors uniting with Democratic op-
ponents, but they arc convinced there
will be enough Democrats to assist
in the ratification of the new treaty.
Senator Underwood, Democratic leader.
is one of the delegates in the con-
ference and has accepted the instru-
ment. Senator II tctcock, the old
Democratic lsacer who led the fight
against the Lodge reservations, indi-
Gated to-day that he would follow
the example OF Senator Underwood. A
number OF other Democratic Senators
hold the view that the treaty should
be ratified to dispose of "a political
irritation Of great menace to both
parties"
Lodges Following.
Opposition from Republican sources
will be contributed by surviving vet
Grams Of the "irrecoucilable'' group. of
which there were from ten to four
teen on various phases OF the old
league controversy. The Republican
reservation" Senator's who followed
the leadership OF Mr.. Lodge (also a
delegate to the conference) will un-
doubtedly indorse his action in &C
cepting the treaty.
There are sixteen new Republican
Senator'S. all of whom are counted
upon by Government officials to accept
the assurance of President Harding
and Secretary Hughes that the new
Pacific treaty is not only a guarantee
for permanent peace but that it prop
erly safeguards the constitutional poll
cies OF this country,
The attitude OF Senator Borah, while
not finally determined. will. 1t is be-
lieved. be hostile to the treaty. The
only Democratic Senators who have
openly expressed opposition to the in
strument are Reed tMo.). a veteran In
the league fight. ard Watson (Ga.).
who was elected On an anti-league
platform.
A lineup on the lew treaty will not
be possible until the document has
been signed and sealed by the Presi-
dent and Secretary OF State. 1t will
then be sent to the Senate with the
reservations mentioned by Senator
Lodge in announcing the agreement
of the treaty to the international con-
ference yesterday. These reservations
establish the rights OF this country
IN Pacific mandatories. with particu-
lar reference to Yap and participation
in the Joint contro. Of communica-
tons centring there. Jalan. Great
Britain and Francs have sssented to
them.
Embarrassment Admitted.
Convinced that the Pacific treaty
will be ratified, officials Of this Govern
plent have entered on formal discus
s!ons that are expected to result in an
agreement over naval ornaments.
Contrary to popular opinion, they ad-
NIT certain amount Of embarrass-
naent in dealing with the subject. de-
spite the certain acceptance Of the
Hurhes formula for capital ships by
Japan.
An agreement over capital arna-
ments probably could be announced at
present were it not for unexpected
complications provoked by the position
of France in asserting her right to ex-
pand her naval forces beyond the point
that the United States. Great Britain,
Jopan and even Italy. which is an inn
portant factor in the situation. regard
as both excessive and unreasonable.
Until the status of France and Italy
is finally determined it is considered
improbable by American, British and
japanese delegates that decision on
any feature of the naval programme
can be reached.
While little attention was paid to the
matter during the negotiations over
the Pacific treaty, the French Govern
ment has injected a new feature into
the naval programme by announcing
its decision 10 go ahead with the con-
struction OF capital ships that are
deemed to be unnecessary.
Following the announcement that
the French Government was planning
an army approximating 100000 men.
its decision TO expand its naval pro-
gramme undoubtedly exercises a dis
turbing influence on conference plans
and opens up possibilities for confer
ence troubles scarcely less acute than
those which surround the Chinese
puzzles.
The delegates OF the United States,
Great Britain and Japan are hopeful
that France can be prevailed upon to
modify her assertion of right to expand
her naval establishment and permit the
preparation of a treaty to conform to
the Hughes plan for the limitation Of
sea arnaments.
Position of Italy.
The position OF Italy in the matter
IS that II France insists upon expand
ing her naval forces the Italian Gov
eminent will be compelled to make
similar claims. The italian delegates,
however, arr perfectly willing to
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