The Brattleboro daily reformer. (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1913-1955, 1921-01-31

fluctuated so much. With the fixing of
the indemnity the German people will
have definite goal. They will know ex-
actly the amount they are mortgagcd and
what their opportunities will be to rise
above their Indebtedness.
Indeed, the far-reacihgn importance OF
the agreement at Paris of the allies Is not
exaggerated here where most every body
believes the fixing of the indemnity is the
biggst event that has happened since the
peace treaty itself was signed.
The worldwide business depression has
been traced by economists directly TO the
, financial uncertainty that lowered over
Central Europe. Not KIN wing how big
load they were obliged to carry, the Ger
mans could hardly make future plans.
Internal political disorders always thrive
when there is vagueness and 1ndeclslon IN
the central government. The American
financial commissioners at Parls-N0r-
man Davis, who is at present uader-sec-
j. Z. Morgan & CO., Vance Mccormick
and Bernard Baruch-insisted at Paris
that the allies fix term of 80 years. The
reports from Paris indicate that the alllcS
are willing to stretch it to Il years. The
American advisers didn't suggest spe-
cifc sums, thought it was commonly re-
ported that they favored twenty billions
of dollars. Paris reports say the indem-
nifty will be fixed at ffty-fve billions.
But the vital fact is that the allies at
American commission. namely, the fixing
of maximum and minimum of some kind
with a definite term of years. OF course.
our officials have only read the newspaper
reports thus far, but Il personal canvass
of the various men who know the repara-
ton question both from Il banking stand
point. as we'll as our own governments
connection with it. leads to the conclusion
that the problem is by no means settled.
y start has been made. The allies have
agreed among themselves. but when they
approach the Germans 1t Is certain that
the latter will show the futility of impos-
ing such a large sum as fifty-five billions.
And the Germans will find considerable
support in the United States for their
view The allies will naturally have
good deal of respect for American 0pin-
ion, for it is no secret that as soon as the
Germans give their allies bonds to the
amount of the indemnity, the allies will
endeayOr to use those reparation bonds as
collateral for foreign loans they may wish
to place in the United States or az part
payment of existing war debt But at
this juncture it is oppOrtuue to reveal t.
Wilson administration and what Will be
all concerned what is in the mind of the
in the mind of the Harding administra-
tlOn-fOr there is no substantial differ
ence between opinions of Republicans and
Democrats on this pOint-namely, that
America will not accept any reparation
bonds in exchange for government loans.
nor will Americans generally buy repara
ton bonds as an investment until the
United States is satisfied that the Ger
mans can pay the amount imposed. In
any event, conservative opinion here *
that Americans will wait anyhow at least
d couple years before buying German
PREPARATION bonds as an investment.
Back of the heSitancy which is reflected
in official as well as banking circles is a
doubt as to how far the French mean to
go in regulating German affairs. The
more or less official opinion here is that
the French have already gone too far for
their own good in holding military club
over the Germans and interfering with
with their opportunities to get raw mate
rails that are requisite to manufacturing.
There is genuine sympathy here for the
French. but considerable difference of Opin-.
ion as to what is best for France herself
economically speaking. If SO. while the
fixing of the indemnity is expected to re
lieve the European situation somewhat
and start a revival of business America
as an impartial observer viii not be reas-
sured as to the value Of the agreement
until she knows definitely that the Ger
mans can pay the indemnity demanded.
There is no disposition here to favor the
reduction Of the indemnity out of any par
ticular consideration for the feelings of
Germany. but it is cold economic prop
OsitiOn of capacity to pay. And our ex-
perts have thought and still think that
tifty-ive billions is too much and that the
Germans will never be able to pay it,