The Richmond palladium and sun-telegram. [volume] (Richmond, Ind.) 1907-1939, 1921-03-05
TWO SERIOUS
QUESTIONS TO
FACE HARDING
Effect on Us of London Con-
ference and State of Treas
ury Must be Considered
Without Delay.
ACTION IS REQUIRED
ny MARK SULLIVAN

WASHINGTON, March 5. Two
questions which President Harding
and his cabinet are going to take up,
under the pressure of immediate urg
ency and without the breathing spell
of a day, are the effect on us of the
London conference, now sitting, and
the state of the treasury, which Is
more acute than the public realizes.
have been at pains to consult near
ly all the men in America who have
authoritative information on what is
likely to be the outcome of the London
conference, and while the opinion of
some is sensationally alarmist, the net
of their beliefs is that the outcome
will not entail an immediate invasion
of Germany by France. 1t is not the
amount of the reparations that con-
stitutes the crisis for America. 1t is
not primarily for the purpose of col
lecting money that the invasion of
Germany is wished by many of the
French leaders and probably the bulk
of the French people.
Invasion Improbable.
Every economist and business man
knows that as a matter of dollars and
cents the invasion would be unprofit-
able. The invasion would cost two
dollars for every dollar the invaders
can collect. What moves France pri
marily is the wish to make Germany
helpless. AS it was explained to me
by one of the most thoughtful Amer1-
can authorities, The cruX Of the mat
ter is that France no longer has Sc
curity against a revivified Germany,
and until she has it, she will not be
inclined to let Germany begin to re-
cuperate."
That, and not money, is the heart
of the situation. The same American
went on to say: In this | am in full
sympathy with France. England and
the United States should guarantee
France against future assault. If Brl-
and fails at London and Poincaire
succeeds him, the French, l think, will
take immediate military action"
Raises Question
This last, of course, raises the
broader and more permanent question
of a league of nations or association
of nations. But the thing of imme-
diate concern is the consequences to
the United States and to the world of
an invasion of Germany by the
French. The effect on American busi-
ness of an action designed not to let
Germany begin to recuperate' is OBJ
vious.
Those of the American authorities
whom l have consulted whose connec-
tions. are military tend to believe that
the Invasion will take place and will
be initiated as early in the spring as
the roads are good enough for action.
Must Pay Bills
The other question that has the
quality of an emergency demand on
the energies of the new administra-
tion is the plain business Of paying
the country's bills. Thoughtful per
sons in contact with this branch of
the governments business are of the
belief that on the 18th of this month,
when the tax returns for last year are
in, it will become apparent that the
country's revenues will be but little
over two thirds of what they We're
last year. and will be about the same
fraction short of enough to pay the
current bills Of this year.
1t is expected that the returns from
the excess profits tax will fall sensa-
tio,>lly below what they were last
year. Some go so far as to predict
sthat the returns from the excess
profits tax will fall close to zero. The
corporations have the privilege of de-
Quoting from their profits all of that
enormous depreciation in the value of
their stock on hand which took place
Just before tho end of the tax year
, The same authorities believe that for
the same and Other reasons the in.
come tax returns will be seriously cur
tailed.
These are the two outstanding prob
lens which the new administration
will have to take up at the opening OF
business tomorrow morning. The list
of othe: problems. which are of enor
nous importance but of less pressing
emergency. is. of course, extremely
large.
Copyright 1921 by tho New York
Evening Post IncD