New-York tribune., 1921-03-03

people are singuarly devoid of indi-
vidual initiative, largely by reason of
their family system. Their past makes
them instinctively respectful of au-
thority. They have always been led
They are used to having their privi-
leges handed down from above. A
great weight Of inertia must be moved.
Radicalism Still Naive
The forces themselves are far from
robust. There IS radicalism of all
kinds, from demand for universal suf-
frage to anarchism, but it is morgan
lzed, even perhaps unconscious. 1t is
not reasoned out. 1t is negative and
vague. Certainly it is naive and it is
in parts markedly artificial. There is
an element of faddishness in it, 1t has
the ring of formula, memorized bodily
from foreign books and repeated parrot
like.
Furthermore there is the tremendous
power Of the classes threatened by it.
They have military strength. They
are not unorganized. They know def
nltely what they want. They are edu-
Gated and class-conscious. They COM
mand the organs of opinion-the polt-
ical machinery, the press, the schools
Everything they have is at stake: the
ambitions of the government, the ma
terlal holdings of the propertied. the
social superiority of the arstocracy,
the latter equally compelling with the
other two-their whole vested inter
est in life lies in maintaining the
present status, at least in essentials.
When they battle for it they battle
for everything life means to them.
Theirs is also the great weapon of
the appeal to patriotism. AS the more
frank of the radicals have admitted
to me, the cry for democratic govern
ment, labor rights, fairer distribution of
wealth, abolition of capital all would
be drowned out by the first resort to
that. This becomes less true all the
time; the criticism Of the Siberian ex-
pedition has been significant as the
first time a foreign enterprise has not
received whole hearted support from
the population. But as whole the
turning OF popular energy and atten-
ton outward would paralyze all effort
at change within.
America Used as Bogey
More specifically, there is the Ameri-
can issue. America will be success
fully used as bogey by the government
tor long time to come 1t wears q
convincing aspect to the masses, as I
have already shown. America, by its
antl-Japanese legislation in the West,
has lent conviction. | do not mean
that the Japanese government would
deliberately go to war IN order to wipe
out disaff ection at hone. But the con-
slant, sklllful playing up of the Amer
lcan menace Will act as n restraining
factor. And no doubt, if the govern
ment ever faces the certainty Of pass
ing at home, it may, although recog-
nlzlng that the chances are five to one
against success, take the one chance
and go to war with America. A one
to-five chance Will be better than no
chance at all. do not believe it re-
motely likely, however, that such
choice will have to be made in the
near future.
Prophecy is foolish. The world Will
move in unexpected paths in the next
ment must inevitably drag Japan along
with it, however involuntarily and
tardily. Also all Eastern peoples are
masters Of compromise. They are IA
talistic and accept events as ordained
more than we do. They know how to
bow TO the inevitable. The ruling
classes may see wisdom when wisdom
becomes necessary for existence.
Therefore there is quite likely to be
an extension of suffrage, a greater de-
gree of individual freedom. an amelio-
restrained foreign policy. But that
these undercurrents will affect the So
cial structure basically or that they
will have a practical effect on Japan's
International role in this generation
is only bare possibility. As l have
said. Japan will continue to be mill
taristic country. taking the aggressive
where she can, for many years to come.
l speak now not by my own authority,
nor even on my own observations
purely, but on the opinions of both
Japanese and foreigners living in
Japan who by their knowledge Of
Japan are qualified to speak.