The Washington herald., 1921-12-09
PARLEY May FRAME
ARBITRATION PACT,
SIMONDS DECLARES
Might Agree Not to For.
tify Islands in Peace
Or Attack in War.
By FRANK H. SIMONDS.

Twenty-four hours ha >dded
little of definite and much acue
statement to the situation. From
American official sources nothing
has been added TO the direct request
made yesterday on behalf Of the
American delegation that confidence
should not be withdrawn, a request
which was accompanied by the fur
ther statement that explicit and
complete explanation would be fur
nished at the earliest possible mo-
ment and that the delay would not
be long.
Thrown hack upon British and
Japanese sources for Information.
the American press correspondents
have been able to accumulate GER
tain impressions. II is agreed that
in some form or another there Is
now being considered an agreement
which may include Britain. japan.
France and the United States. or
may not include France. which Will
impose upon all concerned some
form OF arbitration treaty. some
period OF delay before any hostili-
ties are entered into. with the prob
able additional circumstance that in
case of trouble between two. the
good Offices of the other OF others
shall be sought. This would clearly
be a treaty calling for Senate rati-
1caticn.
NeutraH,c Island Possessiens
Secondly. there is the suGgehtion
that some form OF agreement is un-
der consideration which would
amount to neutralizing the island
possessions Of the various Pacific
powers. not. Of course. including
the japanese homeland or the Amer
ican. including Hawaii. but. roughly
speaking. the Islands included in
the japanese mandates, and the
American overseas groups. which
would be comprehended mainly in
the Philippines and Guam. An
agreement not to fortify in peace
and not TO attack in war seems TO
be the underlying idea.
Coupled with this is the familiar
question Of the naval ratio. IL is
implied in japanese quarters that
the arbitration proposal came from
Tokyo. and that already there has
been some hint from Tokyo that
the second proposal, including the
naval ratio, would be approved. but
that there still remain details which
require consideration and elucida-
tion. This more or less vague COM
munication seems to be the message
which was received yesterday and
figured in today's news as an ac-
ceLtance by Japan OF the 5-5-3 ratio.
Ctisese Situation Dark.
There remains. obviously, a third
very important group OF questions
centering about. the Chinese prob
lem. Here the whole situation 10
still very much in the dark. This
morning Wellington Koo. in the
Chinese committee. made a rather
impassioned statement of Chinese
dissatisfaction, both as to what had
been done or not done SO far In
Chinese affairs directly. and wha,
seemed to be implied by the rumors
of a three or four power alliance in
the Far East
One must note the growing i'm
preston that in the end there will
be a refusal OF the Chinese to ac-
cept the decisions of the conference
in their problems. Certainly the un-
rest and dissatisfaction within the
Chinese delegation remain unmis-
taxable, and the resignation of Mr..
Wang has been transmitted to
Pekin, whether IL. has been accepted
there or not. But coincident with
this impression of Chinese dissatts-
faction. there is also developing a
sentiment that Chinese demands are.
% the whole. e1travagant, and Chi
nese ability to perform wholly
doubtful, even were their requests
granted.
An Arbitration Treaty,
In sum. while the American po-
sition remains for the present un-
disclosed and the statements coming
from other directions subject to the
qualifications to be made in all
such cases, II would appear that
the moment is at hand when IL will
be possible to announce some form
Of arbitration treaty. which will
remove all danger OF sudden and
perhaps Of eventual war In the Far
East. together with an agreement
upon q naval holiday and . satis-
factory naval ratio. probably the
5-5-3. with some amendment due
to the saving of the Mutsu.
DeRpite all the hints and Hurres-