The Washington herald., 1921-02-16
TRADE NOTESFAL
TO DEFINE ACTUAL
SITUATION, BELIEF
Reflection of Foreign
. Commerce Falls Short,
Says Guaranty Trust.
DIRE NEED A FACTOR
Predicts Business Under Last
Years Conditions Cannot
Be Maintained.
DIRE NEED A FACTOR

Though the foreign trade Of the
United States reached record heights
for 1920. there is a general convic-
tion among exporters and importers
that the figures for the year, and
more particularly for the month Of
December, fall far short of reflect
ing the present condition of the
country's foreign trade, according to
the Guaranty Trust Company Of
New York. Regardless of what cir
cumstances may have contributed to
maintain the large volume of ex-
ports, the bank says, it remains
obvious that a sound trade cahnot
continue Indefinitely on the short
term credit basis which has char
acterized our foreign business dur
ing the last year.
Conditions Cannot BE Met.
The survey analyses last years
trade, in part, as follows: The 1920
fgAres demonstrate, OF course, that
our customers overseas are in such
immediate need of our goods that
obstacles of prices and exchange
conditions have somehow been, to a
large degree, surmounted But,
What is of more vital significance.
they further demonstrate the need
of American producers and manu-
facturers for markets for their
goods. Business under last years S
conditions, however large in volume,
cannot be permanently maintained.
December has added more than
s4oo, 900, 600 to the already vast
favorable trade balance of the
United States. and coming months
will witness further additions to the
amount due US from the rest OF the
world, although cable reports just
received from Department of Com
merce representatives throughout
the world indicate some improve
ment in general economic Condi-
tions since the first OF the year,
which may have a salutary eject
on our trade with certain countries
In Great Britain progress in defia-
ton is seen, speculation is decreas-
ing, bank loans are increasing, and
there are predictions of further rise
in sterling and lower rate on
silver. Also, American money is re-
ported to re flowing into England
for InYesuhent. Some general in
provement is also reported in Bet
gium and the Scandinavian coun-
tries, but in other parts of the world
the department representative re-
port conditions a essentially un'
changed.
European Trade Falls on.
Analysis of the 1920 foreign trade
figures shows that commerce with
Europe, our oldest and best Gus.
toner, has fallen on seriously in the
last year. though our total foreign
trade increased as a result of greater
business with Canada, Mexico, South
America and Asia Exports to Eu-
rope fell from s5,1S5, 100000 in 1911!
to S4,466, 635,000 in 1920, while i'm
ports in the same years increased
| from s75O,569,0O0 to $l,227,S42. 900
! A four-fold increase in our trade
with Germany is significant in con
sidering the general European de.
cline in trade.
| Exports Increase.
American exports to the fourprin
cipal South American countries in
creased more than 500. 10000 az
compared with 1919. while import:
| showed an increase of only abou
| aE0tUUUrUUU. 1 duC WIN Subd "a
| ceeded 81, 200, ,OOO, 900 in value in 1920
an increase of nearly $500, 200, 0ot
over 1919. Exports to Mexico IN
creased about s75,OO0,0OO, while i'm
ports rose from $4,000 900 to NOR,
than SISO.OOO,OOO. The value of oul
trade with China increased abou
$50, 100000 in 1920, divided equal!
between imports and exports. Trad
with Japan, however, increased onl!
about S16,OO0;0o0, of which $1,000,
900 comprised exports to tina
| country.
The currentss of this country
commerce during 1920, and tn
enormous total value of our good
shipped to new markets, despite ex
| change drawbacks and lack o
icredit, serve as evidence of the al
most unlimited opportunity for tn
expansion of foreign trade on a firm
and permanent basis. But the Amer
lean people must thoroughly -un
lderstand that the, extent of this ex
lpansion, as well as the rehabilita
ton of our waning European mar
kets, will be measured by, the exten
to which they cooperate with in
stitutions that are in a position t
place long-term credits at the dis
4 posal of countries in constant nee
lof our surplus products