The New York herald., 1921-01-09

experts now believe Germany can pay-and
France Is entitled to more than half of
the total German payment. Thus while the
British and American experts would be in
clined to. f1x the German capacity to pay at
$15.000.o00,000 France cannot take less than
this same sum without transferring to the
backs Of her own citizens burdens which
properly belong on German shoulders And
no French Government could last an hour
which acquiesced in such transfer.
French Government Must Stand
SquareIy on Treaty and Spa Agreement
French insistence now upon the letter of
the Treaty of Versailles and the text of the
Spa agreement is as much to be traced to
French policy in the matter of reparations
as to French apprehension over Bavarian
actions at the present hour. To consent to
amendments to the treaty in the pending
case and over the military terms would es-
tablish precedent for modification of the eco
nomic terms. To avoid this France stands
squarely upon the letter of the law in both
instances. And this is what the French people
demand that the Government shall do.
The strength of the French position, as
even Mr.. Keynes recognized, lies in the fact
that the law is with France. Germany
agreed in the treaty to do certain things and
the allies of France agreed with her that
Germany should if necessary, be compelled
to do these things. The weakness Of the
French position lies in the fact that certain
writer's, like Keynes, have obtained wide
credence in English speaking countries for
the idea that Germany cannot comply with
the terms of the treaty and that this argu-
ment appeals to the selfish interests, par
ticularly in Great Britain, which con-
cerned not with French problems but
British.
The British, or considerable fraction of
the British public, believe that German.
recovery is prevented by French unreason-
ableness, by French political aspirations. by
combination of militarsm and financial
blunders. They also believe that British
recovery is retarded by the protraction of
chaos in Germany and they feel bitterly
toward the French in consequence, and
strive to compel their own Government to
remove the French obstacle.
But French public opinion quite as frankly
views British effort to restore Germany for
economic reasons with disapproval and sus-
picion and absolutely refuses to permit the
Government to yield, either in military or
economic conditions What arrives is sort
OF deadlock which is fatal to the desires and
interests of both the British and the French,
encourages the Germans to resist, but, in the
end exposes them to the consequences of
their resistance. as in the case of the occu-
patton of Frankfort last summer.
No one can quite describe the SITUATION In
Germany to-day with convincing accuracy.
The French believe that the Germans are
striving to prepare a revdnche, they see in
German actions many indications, they are
able to collect much evidence to prove that
the old order, the old ideas, the old aspira-
tions survive and will prevail. The French
man, in fact, sees in the present Germany
precisely the things which were so danger
Gus for him in the Germany of 1914, or for
that in matter in the Germany of 1870. And
1t is not possible to prove that the French
man may not be right. Moreover, it is for
him a question of life and death, so his ap-
prehensions are not surprising.
To Divide Her Enemies
Manifest as Germanys Policy
AS for the Englishman, he sees Germany
crushed, her fleet gone, her power for re-
sistance in contemporary time abolished.
He believes that If she can get to work the
dangers for the future will be small. But
he also recognizes for Britain the advantage
If Germany does get to work, and his judg-
ment like the Frenchman's is manifestly
Influenced by his own personal stake in the