The Washington herald., 1921-12-03
ACCORD PREDICTED.
japanese Acceptance of
Hughes Naval Ratio
Expected Soon.
CHINESE CLAIMS
\ TO BE POSTPONED
British Press Arguments
For Abolition of Sub
marines.
oNiciaI declarations that the arm

OAiciaI declarations that the arm
ament conference is making mate
rial and satisfactory progress came
from sources closest to President
Harding yesterday. The P4kident
was declared to be extremely opti-
mtstic that complete accord will be
reached on all disputed subjects.
The only thing troubling him. it
was explained. was that possibly the
conference was making too speedy
progress.
This information. coming at the
end of 4 day that was filed with
conferences and committee sessions.
increased the general feeling of op-
timism that Japan will accept the
Hughes naval ratio. AS a matter
OF fact spokesmen of almost every
delegation represented here said
that in their opinion an official an
nouncement that Japan has accept
ed in fact as well as in principle
can be expected at any time.
Forces Chinese Investigation.
The reason for this viewpoint was
the developments in the full COM
mittee of the Far Eastern and Pa
cific problems where Japan scored
what may yet prove to be notable
victory in bringing about a situa-
tion where investigation of China's
actual force as a stable government
was demonstrated to be a necessity.
1t is now almost certain that the
committee that will be authorized
to investigate the Chinese claims
that their courts are functioning
On tiSfantnrfv
courts, existing under the rights Of
extraterritorality. should be aboi-
ished, will also he commissioned to
determine the justice of Japans
contention that she must retain her
forces in Southern Msnchuria to
protect foreign lives and property
The effect of this would be to
postpone any decision for a year
and make certain that there will be
another conference twelve months
hence to pass upon the unfinished
business of the present gathering
This would almost certainly apply
to the majority OF the other prob
lens in dispute in connection with
China. And even though the final
action recognizes the Chinese prop
erty title in principle the whole
agreement will be a diplomatic vic
tory for Japan.
Can Accept Naval Ratio.
That would give the delegation
here such prestige at home that
they very easily can accept the
Hughes shipping program in its en-
tirety at the same time making
public a carefully worded explana-
tion that they do not regard the
10-10-6 capital ship Limitation
pans defense but that they have
national peace.
And everywhere in official and
conference circles last night IL was
accepted that this is what will hap
pen. Japan will make her conces-
sions and then ii Will be possible
to arrange n plenary session the
latter part OF next week at which
she can outline her stand Only
one possibility of danger seemed to
threaten this outcome. That wa.
that the Tokyo government might
be Influenced by pressure at home
to insist on the delegation holding
out for some time yet in an effort
to save the Mutsu and get at least
a semblance Of concessions toward
additional capital ship strength.
Submarine Question Next.
However, if the program works
out as expected by the majority of
the delegates, it is likely that by
next week the conference will pe
able to proceed with the assignment
of the ratio to Italy and France
and to take up the next disputed
question of whether submar arines are
to be retained as defensive weapons
of warfare.
1t was hinted last night that the
British were making their infiueh Ace
felt in American circles by their
arguments in favor of abolishing
submarines. Their delegates ap-
peared to think that the American
advisory committee and the Amer
lean delegation would consider very
carefuGy the declaration of Artfrur
]. Balfour that the submarine is a
weapon whose abuse can hardly be
avoided in time of war. The Brit
ish, II was explained, will do their
best to win the American delegation
to their point of view. feeling that
il they could do so then the con-
ference, IL it did not abolish the
submarine completely, would so
limit its use as, to make it certain
that nerer again would a war be
fought where merchant ships would
be sunk by underseas enemics.
Favor Airplane DeveIopaent.
The question of poison gas and
airplanes also will come in for con-
sfderation as soon as the capital
ship question is disposed Of. 1t is
not expected that there Will be any
interference with either subject. II,
is expected that the conference will
agree that every possible stimula-
tiop should be given to the deverop-
ment OF airplanes. Tor commercial
purposes. In this connection 4, A.
expected that President Harding
will very soon ask Congress to cs-
tablish a division of commercia,
aeronautics under the direction sof
Secretary of Commerce Hoover.
This will come as the direct result
of the conference of the American
advisory committee of twenty-one
on the question OF aerial develop