New Britain herald., 1921-12-17
(gnecial 10 The Herhld)

An associate of MT. Hoover has made a very interesting suggestion, He says that In addition to the Daily Weather Forecasts we ought to have Daily Business Forecasts. If this were accomplished, q business man or investor could pick up his daily pa per and see whether business is go- ing to be bright and fair or cloudy and stormy. Suppose that such fore casts could be made as precisely as weather foracasts-Which are said to average as high as so per cent re- liable-these business progno8tica- tions would certainly be a very popu- lar feature of the daily press and would help to avert great many business troubles and investment trag- edies.
 "The suggestion is not as impos- sibe as 1t seems at first glance. De- pressions follow regular paths cross ing our business world. Their record when charted looks very much like the storm maps of the Weather Blu reau.
 Start with the industrial centers of the Northeast, including let us say,
  sey and eastern Pennsylvania, In other words, take the three Federal Reserve Districts, No. 1, No. and No. 8. I regard the outlook for this region as relatively favorable. This was the first part of the country to show decline in business; and ac- cording to the law of action and re- action, this same section will lead in the recovery.
 "The Agricultural West will follow suit and participate in due turn in the activity now becoming apparent in the Northeast. Local business men can regard the neighboring sec tions on the east as a barometer which now indicates that fair weather is or its way.
 When cotton prices picked up, the South recovered it's poise. com plete and instantaneous restoration is not to be expected. You cannot jumI out of a well in a single leap. But fl the business leaders of the South vii fix their vision on the germ of pros perity with which the New York stock market has been inoculated they will see the blessed infection spread out until it envelops the whole region east of the . .Mississipp and south of the Ohio.
 Turning to the Far West, I flnt the outlook complicated by a peculiar circumstance. The Mountain State' and the Northwest have suffered be yond a doubt. But in broad way California has thus far escaped rath CT lightly. Business on the coast helt up for some time after it was dis tinctly dull elsewhere. Similarly, bus mess mae tend to hold stationary or the CoaSi, even after an advance i registered in other localities. II other words, it is quite possible tha California's readjustment may take the form of belated rise rather thar actual slump.
 If we interest ourselves In Item peratures" as well as storm centers we find a reliable thermometer i total purchases. Sales during th past few months indicate the gradlia fighting of conditions. Sales fo | September and October of this veal taking the average of the country ai a whole, is approximately 70 per cent of the same two months of 1920. No vember showed a five per cent i'm. provement while the total figure: have not as yet had a. complete check, our forecasts of 75 per cent | promises to be accurate. The fore. cast for this month indicates that we will enjoy 80 per cent of the busi- ness of December last year. The forecasts for January and February respectively give us S5 per cent ant | 90 per cent.
 "As a whole the year 1922 will compare pretty well with 1921 so ia, as the aggregate business of these cities is concerned. The significan