Evening star., 1921-01-29
INDEMNITY RESULT
F0LL0WSU. S. VIEW
Fixing of Definite Sum Lor1g
Advocated Here--Think 56
Billion Too High, However.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

Billion Too High, However.
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
Victories are sometimes belated, but
history records them none the less.
All Washington is pleased over the
triumph at Paris Of the American
idea of fixing definite sum that Ger
many should pay as reparation for
war damages.
For months the American financial
commissioners at Paris fought for the
fixing of definite sum, but both
Prime Minister Lloyd George and
Premier Clemenceau were afraid that
any sum that might be fixed would
be disappointing to their peoples. and
that they themselves would be swept
out of political power.
President Wilson admitted before
the Senate foreign relations commit
tee at the White House that the fall
ure to fix the indemnity to be paid by
Germany was IAN international Sc
cret," and Senator Borah didn't press
him for a reply. But the truth is, the
prime ministers of the allied coun-
tries had retained their political power
many would pay an enormous war in
demnity.
One Cause for Depression.
Aside from the historical aspects Of
the agreement that has been reached at
Paris. the effect upon American busi-
ness, agriculture and industry was a
subject Of much discussion here wher-
ever the news from Paris was carefully
studied. American cotton growers and
wheat, growers and manufacturers who
have been clamoring for foreign mar
kets have not been able to sell their
goods because European money had de-
preciated in value. German markets
have been of doubtful value because the
worth of German money has fiuctuated
so much. With the fixing of'the in
demnity, the German people will have
a definite goal. They will know exactly
the amount they are mortgaged for and
what their opportunities will be to rise
above their indebtedness.
indeed, the far-reaching importance
Of the agreement at Paris Is net exag-i
gerated here, where most everybody be-
lieves the fixing of the indemnity is the
biggest event that has happened since
the peace treaty itself was signed.
The world wide business depression
has been traced by economists direct
ly to the financial uncertainty that
hovered over central Europe. Not
knowing how big a load they were
obliged to carry, the Germans could
hardly make future plans Internal
political disorders always thrive when
there is vagueness and indecision in
the central government.
Accept American Principle.
The American financial commits
sioners at Paris-Norman Davis. who
Thomas w. Lamont of J. p. Morgan &
Co, Vance Mccormick and Ber-
nard Baruch-insisted at Paris that
the ALLIES fix term of thirty years
The reports from Paris indicate that
the allies are willing to stretch it to
forty-two years. The American ad-
visers didn't suggest SPECIFIC sum.
though it was commonly reported
that they favored $4,000. 900. 900.
Paris reports say the indemnity will
be about $56.o0O, 100000.
But the vital fact is that the allies
at last have accepted the principle OF
the American commission, namely.
the fixing Of a maximum and mini
mum Of some kind. with a definite term
Of years.
OF course, our off1cials have only
read the newspaper reports thus far.
but a personal canvass OF the vari-
Gus men VINO know the reparation
question, both from a banking stand
point as we'll as our own govern
ment's connection with it. leads to
the conclusion that the problem is by
no means settled. A start has been
made The allies have agreed among
themselves, but when they approach
the Germans it is certain that the
latter will show the futiliy of i'm
billions And the Germans will find
considerable support in the United
States for their view
The allies will naturally have a
good deal OF respect for American
opinion, for it is no secret that as
soon as the Germans give the allies
bonds to the amount of the indemnity.
the latter will endeavor to use those
reparation bonds as collateral for
foreign loans they may wish to place
in the United States or as part pay
ment OF the existing war debt.
VIII Not Accept Bonds.
But at this juncture 1t Is opportune
to reveal to all concerned what is In
the mind of the Wilson administra-
Of the Harding administration-for
there is no substantial difference Of
opinion between republicans and dem
ocrats on this point--namely, that
America will not accept any repara-
ton bonds in exchange for govern
ment loans. nor will Americans gener-
ally buy reparation bonds as an invest
ment until the United States is satis-
fed that the Germans can pay the
amount imposed. In any event, con.
servative opinion here is that Ameri-
cans will wait at least a couple of
years before buying German reparation
bonds as an investment.
Back Of the hesitancy which is re-
flected in official as well as banking
circles is q doubt as to how far the
French mean to go in regulating Ger
man affairs.
The more or less official view here
is that the French have already gone
ing q military club over the Germans
and interfering with their oppor-
tunities to get raw materials that
are requisite to manufacturing.
There is genuine sympathy here for
the French, but a considerable dtf
ference Of opinion as to what is best
for France herself. economically
So, while tho fixing OF the indemnity
is expected to relieve the European
situation somewhat and start a re-
yival of business. America, as an inn.
martial observer, will not be reas-
sured as to the value of the aeres-
ment until she knows absolutely thar
the Germans can pay the indemnify
demanded. There is no disposition
here to favor the reduction OF tha
indemnity out Of any particular con.
sideration for the feelings Of Ger
many. but 1t is cold economic
proposition OF capacity to pay. And
our experts have thought, and still
think. that hfty-six billions is too
much and that the Germans will
never be able to pay 1t.
Copyright. 1s21.)