davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Expectation of LoaUer
Prices Checking Buying
Many Retailers Look tor Fur
ther Drop in Wholesale Quo
tati0nS; Aduances Predicted

Out Of more than 500 business men
In various lines of trade, replying to a
questionnaire sent out January 20 by
the Philadelphia Reserve Bank, 397
replied that buying on the part of the
public was restrained by expectation
OF lower prices. The remaining nine
teen who replied to the question agreed
that lack of funds was causing hes
fancy on the part Of consumers.
Further retail reductions are ex-
pected by 558. against 32 who believe
retail prices will go no lower. Four
hundred and fortyfour replied that
wholesale prices will be still lower, al
though 1875 did not share this view,
The ratio of those believing that fur
ther drops in wholesale prices are due
were IA to 10 in agriculture, ~ to in
carpets and rugs, 10 to Z in cotton
goods, 9 to l in furniture, SIS to 7 in
iron and steel and II to 8 in silk. The
only exceptions to a majority be-
lleVing IN lower prices we're: In wool
cloth, to for higher prices; leather
hides, to / for advances, and cotton
yarns, to | in favor of higher prices.
In hardware, tin and COMMERCIAL naner
the replies expressing opinions on ad
Vances and declines were even.
A greater variety Of opinion existed
IN the replies to the question, "WilI
manufacturers' prices reach lower lev.
els = All answering in the affirmative
and 149 in the negative.
MaJorities looking for advances in
manufacturers prices were expressed
IN confectionery, cotton yarns, WOO
cloth and wool yarns.
Only forty-four believe that goods
are being held for speculative ad.
vance, against SAP who believe they are
not. On the cancellation question 54G
replied that their elimination was nee.
essary while twenty-eight think thew
are not.
On the unemployment question 24e
reported large amount of unemploy-
ment in their lines 286 a slight amount
and So no unemployment.
Two hundred and tifty-five replied
that bank credits are becoming easier
against 19l who answered in the mega
tive.
On the question of stimulating ex-
port trade an almost unanmity OF
opinion was shown. Those believing it
necessary to provide means for en-
couraging and maintaining export trade
numbered 497, against 81 who did not
think it necessary. A total of 453 were
in favor of accepting Europes high
grade securities in payment for oul
PfoAucIS, WhlIe 50 were against this
policy.
The majority of those replying to
the QUESTIONABLE were fairly optimis-
tic in their own lines of business Sew
enty-eight were very optimistic, $50
fairly optimistic, So undecided, 81
slightly pessimistic and II very pessi-
mistic. In every line those fairly op-
timistic outnumbered those in any
other frame Of mind about the fnture
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Boon, Year Rises

There is, of course. no need for ap.
pealing to the greater velocity of
money to explain the rising prices
during the boom years. An enormous
increase was taking place in both
money and credit media. Probably
also the output of goods was some
what sub-aversge. A greater plenty Of
currency units, as over against the
goods to be exchanged through them,
reduced the buying power of currency
unit-raised the prices, But it is also
certain that, with the rising prices,
the turnover of goods-and also there
fore the turnover Of money-was more
rapid. But neither was a cause, but
only a result, of the changing prices
and either had TO be if the other was
the one the mere diverse of the other
more trading with spondingly
more employment of the media used
in trading.
The principle in the case is easily
illustrated. Boston jobber in shoes
informs me that the year 1919 was a
record year with him as with shoe
jobbers in gcneral-not so much on ac-
couns of the especially wide margins
of gain per transaction as for the num-
ber of transactions handled. the great
trade activity-and all OF this in 9 wear
in which actually the volume of output
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Consumers Strike

And | said that in essentials this
process was all to be explained by the
stagnation Of purchasing power, an err
ratio and extreme and temporary case
of save that vetoed work, a speculative
reversal imposing q reta rdation in the
entire producing and merchandising
and consuming process-all as pen
atty for allowing the entire price mech
anlsm to get speculative, the money
pivot of things to get wabbly, the stab
ilizer in things to become itself un-
stable, the standard of exchanges and
of contracts to be itself an independent
source of speculative stimulation and
an Independent object of speculative
activity.
But what does all the foregoing mean
IN its bearing on the future, immediate
and remote, of business and prices :?
Precisely because it has been through
the policies of money and credit con-
troll that have so far ruled that the
whole movement of things has broken
into two sub-processes of swing against
swing, and because we have now had
our reaction against the earlier long
continued upward swing, and must
finally reach an end to this reaction,
and because each reactive movement in
evltably goes so far as to make in
evitable, when it stops-or gets stopped
a speculative counter movement-and
because, during the recent reaction
downward, no serious reduction in Re-
serve Bank notes, or in member bal
ances as reserves, or in commercial
deposit credits, has occurred-no sub
stahtial dehation of the money or
credit bases for price recovery and
infa ation-and because the reaction,
being purely one of prices, has rested
on no ultimate pressure of controlling
infneuces outside the money field, and
has therefore been without effect on
the underlying and long time influences
to which prices ultimately adjust them
selves, and thus, having had no occa-
sion to go far, appears now to have
reached its term, and has actually
now-for the time being at any rate
come to stop-and because every
fundamental condition still exists to
facilitate an upward swing in prices,
fostering and promoting it when it
comes-I now predict that we are not
far distant from the next phase of the
financial seesaw that the American
people have not yet arrived at the
purpose and power both to condemn
and To DreYeDt
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Comn,only yAccepted
Quantity Theory of
Money Fails TO Ex-
plain Recent Trade
Developments,Said

problem Of eliminating all monetary
and credit Influences OF disturbance
bearing on the processes Of exchange.
and bearing, through these processes,
on the processes Of Industry. No ex-
hortation for larger production can
avail as remedy against rising prices
when imitation ls going on; exaggerated
speculative movements will merely ab-
sorb the product, mask the entire sit
ration, decree an artificial dearth, and
react to further initiate che media Of
exchange. For example, there was
few months ago dearth Of wool Now
it Is reported tfat all the mills Of the
world running night and day for Z
year, would be unable to use up the
accumulated stocks, to say nothing of
the currently arriving product. So,
again, it is folly 60 urge tn, public to
buy freely when a price reaction is in
progress.
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Duty OF Big Business

OF course it is to be understood
that big business will not take what
the traffic will bear" The point is
that 1t operates on the widest margins
and thus has an elasticity that can
absorb every shock. 1t holds it's place
IN the community by serving the com
munity. by making it easier for the
community to live. Its business is TO
lower costs and prices. 1t is easiest TO
improve or cheaper service where the
margin is widest between production
costs and use value. For to saw that a
thing has q high use value is aimplv
another way Of saying that people viii
pay high price rather than go with
out it,
Now it should be plain that the thing
l am describing as big business is a
natural evolution from what we call
hnance. For finance, when it's func-
tIon is understood is seen to be sim
ply the unspecialized and all-cotrelat-
ing form of business.
Our actual finance has been made
lmpotent--it is unable to keep the
wheels of business turning--because
1t has subjected itself 10 specialized
business. 1t has tried to follow the
heeIs of multitude of leaders. each
service. In this bewildering pursuit
finance has discovered no better re-
course than to follow furthest the best
magnitiers. When it can go no fur
ther it stops business. 1t does this
for the purpose of reducing the exag-
geratlons. They must be scaled down
to proportions that are at least meas
urable from a standpoint near the
solid ground.
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06

ls at bottom simply the power to
determine the relative value of things,
Economy is proportion.
The things that n community shou1d
hrst and without fail produce. are the
'hlngs that IN the particular local cir
cumstances of acquired skill and
natural resources, cost least and are
Worth most. Those are the fundamen.
tails Big business gives its discrimi-
nation attention to such things.
=, IL surveys the physical resources Of
the district and its actual life-sustain-
ing system. 1t regards these as sin
gie industrial plant, The new big
business concern undertakes to draw
thls whole plant into proportion bv
choosing for its own immediate super-
VISION round of inter related activi-
tles WIDE enough to guarantee the or
Gerry subsistence of the community
It's own position is impregnable be-
cause ITS services are indispensable. It
capltallzes tho concrete truth. That is
TO say 1t takes control of the credit
capital Of the community by publishing
the facts as to what is most essential
and acting accordingly.
since the essential services are those
IN which there is the widest margin
between productioncosts and value for
use or exchange, big business NAV be
SAID to possess the fat of the land. That
our generation went into business
backwards is evident from the fact that
finance has always sighted the essen
hals-food, clothes, housing and so on
1t has turned its back upon the CEN
tral mine of profits.
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Dangers Of Upttsrn

The truth is, then, that everything
Is ready in money and credit volumes
for pronounced upward swing back
in prices. Methods of rigid limitation
are called for. Industrial recovery re-
quires only stability in prices, and
should not be permitted to complicate
itself with another general advance in
prices. Defation is an uncomfortable
process, the bad penalty of q previous
bad excess. But having now the lower
prices, we should retain them. But
unless credit control is exercised we
shall not. To interpret this period of
reaction as better than q further inAa-
tion, and as in this sense a healthy
and normal process, is correct, IN view
OF the eXcesses that preceded il and
brought 1t. But to interpret this de-
f1atLon as good in any sense to justify
repetition of the very thing that
brought it--as the purchase price. or
as the proper excuse, for a new orgy
Of imitation, Is to miss the meaning Of
the lesson
But my guess is that the lesson viii
be missed; that an upward reaction viii
set in and viii be fostered-with much
self-congratulation on the part Of the
banking control that permits it; tha5
1t will be pointed to as the sufficient
proof of the wholesomeness of the de-
Aation, and of the wisdom of the policy
that preceded it. as also of the policy
that shall follow it. But this forecast
IS based merely on an anticipated
policy, Thus, to query whether or not
the revival that is in early prospect
is TO be enduring, or merely Of short
duration, to inquire as to the degree and
the wholesomeness Of it, and when it
will be halted and "A reverse movement
set in-au these, take to be questions
turning on the policies Of credit con-
troll g be followed. In this regard
wisdom consists in clear recognition
Df what ,tra =
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
livestock Slaughtered
In Month 2, 800, 600

During December the domestic slaugh-
ter of the principal classes of live
stock under Federal inspection includ-
ed 667344 cattle, 244,573 calves, 932 AIT
sheep and / ,220 goats, according to fig
ures which have been compiled by the
Bureau of Animal Industry. By use of
the usual ratios of country to- packer
slaughter the total slaughter of each
class during the month may be esti-
mated at 1,026,68o cattle, 543 800 calves,
1,210,935 sheep and 3,4S6 goats,
The total numbers of the principal
Federal inspection during the year were
8,608. .691 cattle, 4,o5s,37o calves, 10,-
982, ,180 sheep and 42,477 goats. The
total slaughter of each class during the
year was estimated at 13,244,140 cattle,
9,018,600 calves, 14,262,570 sheep and
12l 1850 goats.
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Misuse Of Fact

Academic? Doubtless. But wait =
while. l promise to give it practical
applications, And obvious also? Surely
SC. But it is this very obviousness
that l am trying to make clear and to
stress beyond forgetting For l have
the shrewd suspicion-so 1 flatter my
self, at any rate-that the economists
have deduced important conclusions
cut of the notion that turnover of
money and turnover of goods are in
dependent facts instead Of recognizing
tEem-as commonly they are-merely
c fferent ways of looking at one and
the same thing.
The truth is that if trade required
no time and if thus the goods to be
traded did not conflict with one an
other, as also if the money used in
one transaction did not displace or
postpone its use in another, and so
again. if cash did not come intermit-
teptly at rest in pockets and tills and
deposit accounts and q cash holdings
were not generally required in busi-
ness affairs as one sort of circulating
capital or as purchasing power
promptly available for the daily and
hourly buying of things if, for ex-
alAple, deposit accounts were not vari-
ously active and inactve--if, to put it
in still another fashion, if funds were
hot always accelerating or stagnating
in movement, and there were instead
always the maximum conceivable rapid
ity in the velocity OF money turnover,
then one unit of money, no matter how
small-a dollar or even penny--would
suffice for all the money work to be
done. 1t is, therefore, only the fact
that there is lacking this infinite de-
gree of velocity in circulation that ex
rlains that there is room for any guam
tlty theory of money at all But this
is merely to say that, because the turn
over of goods is not timeless, the turn
over of money cannot be. For it is only
as goods turn over that there is call
for the turnover of money. Assuming
a stable flow of goods and a stable
supply of currency, the rate of the
turnover of goods reports the rate Of
the turnover of money-or the other
way about. Goods-ag againstmoney is
iust money against-goods. The one goes
with the other, end therefore, with
eoual rates--just different aspects of
one thing,
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Davenport A erts
Frankly Avowed
Policy Would En-
able Business Men
10 Plan Confidently


Professor Of Economies, CormeN Uni-
Uersity
E'HE quantity theory of money is
declared by its critics to offer no
adequate explanation for recent price
movements. In this view | concur,
though for longtime purposes | am
myself an adherent of the quantity
theory. Practically no change has
taken place in the volume of money
or of deposit credit currency during
this two months period Of sharply
falling prices, and what minor
changes have occurred have been
mainly in the direction of increase
rather than of decrease.
A quantity theorist of the stricter
discipline would, however, promptly
urge that it is in the diminished veloc
.ty of circulation that the efficiency of
lie currency medium has suffered-a
slow shilling where earlier there was
a nimble sixpence.
automatically, doubtless, the So
called equation of exchange has to be
true; the aggregate of currency trans
ferred to sellers by buyers must equal
The aggregate of prices received by the
sellers-being the same thing. So if
the volume of goods to be transferred
increases, or the average prices of them
increase, or if the number Of transfers
with a given volume of goods increases
the number of units of currency must
b. more, or the units must average to
move more rapidly, or each unit must
buy more at each transfer-prices fall
Quite so. But what causes the in
creased volume Of trading within a
sf"ble volume of product-thc pros
porous trade period-carried some
times to the degree of the "over-
trading that the earliest economists
talked off, Or what again brings the
periods of bad or dull trade-all these
as notifications of the familiar state
Of trade?
Sei IaIhly When goods stop less long
IN each traders hands and go through
IN the average more traders hands in
reaching the final buyers, the money
must also average to stop less long
with the successive traders-mus t
evlnce an acceleration OF velocity equal
to that of the goods. The greater VOL
ume of trade when due to a greater
turnover in the same volume of prod
ucts must precisely equal the greater
turnover of money-the two increases
IN turnover being merely two different
aspects of the same thing-more ex-
changes of goods against money being
gust another way of reporting more ex-
changes of money against goods-all
being accomplished with neither more
Of goods nor more of money and in no
longer period of time And so it still
is the acceleration both of goods and
of money that needs explaining.
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Emancipation OF Finance

The rise of big business is the
emancipation of finance That event
is long overdue. 1t will happen this
year. In some quarter of the world
before the year has ended finance will
cease to follow 1t will lead.
And very shortly after this has hap
pened in one place it will happen
everywhere.
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
UnspecidIized Business;
A Iie,o OF What Is Coming
Charles Ferguson Predicts That Within Five Years
New Kind of Commercial Enterprise Will Com.
mand the Production Of All Staple Products

Formerly Special Agent Of the Department Euopenn
CoaNjr9eSt lately Of the State Department.
FORESEE that within five wholly of business enter
prise will command the production every comu
We shall back
that little Indeed think the idea of GRAND scale s
viii
and
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Retarded Buying

The process has been one merely Of
retarded buying, of stagnating use of
available purchasing power. Only as
reporting a speculative use Of money,
speculation for rise in its purchas-
ing power, has there been any fall in
prices. But this speculative attitude
toward money has followed as the prac-
tically inevitable reaction from an ear
lier infation-fostered hurry of buying
"a reaction certain to occur whenever
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
4 Sense Of Real dIues

Little business cannot live-in a
world of politics and print--without a
progressive loosening of the COM
munity's hold upon veracity and real
}ty. Little business must absorb its
keenest efforts in putting itself 1t
must eXaggerate its own Importance
or die. There is an etfectual way Of
bringing It back to reality, What is
needed is 2 dominating business nstitu-
tion that knows how to command the
service Of the community on basis
Of faCt-how to make real money by
exploiting real values in their due
proportion.
Hence comes big business. 1t fol-
lows the scientific line of least resist
ance. 1t seeks to do the most good
with the least expenditure of effort
Being unspecialized, it is like the re-
vo,ving turret Of bastleship. It can
project its energy in any direction
1t can choose the services that cos.
least ard "a worth most. Tneso arc
the most profitable They are also the
rtost essential.
Big business guarantees the essen
rals. 1t precludes panics and depres-
slons. 1t stabiIizes prosperity-by see
ing TO it that the community produces
the necessaries Of life-or produces
what can be exchanged for them in ac-
cess!Dle markets. In strictness of
speech, most of the particular commod-
ties called necessary are not really
indlspe pensable. What is necessary is
that the community shall be able to
support itself
The final guaranty of self-support
lies in putting the first thing first,
and the second second. 1t is a cues
ton Of intelligence. And intelligence
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06
Business That SERIES

Little business is specialized aud big
business is Unspecialjsed Little bust
ness creates an organization to render
particular services. Big business Gre
ates an organization to render what
ever services may be most necessary to
the community.
This new kind Of business will come
into existence in Europe this present
year. 1t will come because ii must 1t
is impossible for the more diSardcred
and exhausted districts of Europe to
reouperate by amy other means.
W1th the rise of uuspecia('Ted busi-
ness in any European country the eyes
OF the business world will be opened
to new and trucr views rs to what is
most profitable and best worth while.
In the last analysis every kind of
legitimate business seeks to give serv-
ice for service. That is to say, the
final aim Of every business concern is
to exchange its own service for some
measure of command over the services
Of the community. That is what we
mean by making money"
The regime Of little business neces-
sarlly runs to confusion because, since
its business concerns are all, special
ICED. each concern is bound, by the ma
ture of the case, to magnify its own
particular service out of proportion to
other services. Indeed, the tendency
is to pay less and less attention to the
rendering of a service. and an ever
increasing attention to devices where
by much may be got from the community
n exchange for little.
1t is idle to say that this tendency
Of the regime of specialized business
is immoral 1t is inevitable. Nor can
it be remcdied by statute and police
power it cannot be remedied other
wise than by establishing in the midst
Of the business community a central
and correlating power of unspecialized
New-York tribune., 1921-02-06

Speaking after this mannor-h by an-'
ticipation-i offer the following dchni-
ilnnS.
The Wheeling intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1903-1961, 1921-09-27
c. A. R. VETS
RELYING THE
OLD SCENES

indianapolis ssrt 7s.-Fr'endshtps
formed or the Union army's battle lines
In tho DAYS from 81 I" 6, were re-
npwcd n.r. today. AS the Grand Army
~ the Republic assenb!ed for It's ff'E
Gfth annual enCanpment Arm in arm.
coInrade. ~ ;hn conflict fought between
tn. two sec,'ons OF this country oNsr a
ha'f century ago. strol'ed about the city
today. recalling experiences of the bat
tle-neld and ramp.
Tonight siate and city officials weI-
coined tho visitors At the state house.
Governor Warren r Mc'irRy. Mayor
Charles W Jeweit. nf Indianapolis and
other officials assured the veterans Of
the hospitality of RI. state and city
during tho encanpment.
During the day III" - A. F. members s
and the delssates from organizations
allied with tho Grand Army registered
A. the state house. This evening reDrs-
sertat!ves from forty-four departments
of tho Grand Army ha1 Registered, and
{, was announced that approximately
s.0n0 veterans were here.