The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-12-04
JAPAN ID YIELD
 OR QUIT FARLEY,
 OBSERVERS THINK
General Opinion Is That After Usual Protesting and Bluff fling Island Empire Will
 Accept Proposals
By HUGH ". ROBERTS Washington Bureau, The Age Herald,
 800 Davidson Building

Washington Bureau, The Age-Herald,
 800 Davidson Building.
 Washington, December 3.-(Spe- 'al)-Japan will either agree to the
 uerican plan regarding naval dis
 tntlement, and adopt d basis where
 it's sea fighting strength will be
 per cent of that of the United
 ltes and the British empire, or re-
 from the conference.
 is the almost unanimous Judg
 nt of observers in Washington that
 an, after protesting and bluffing
 he extent of its ability, will accept
 American proposal and thus make
 conference a success. Japan. 1t is
 lted out, cannot at the council
 successfully buck" the United
 es and the British empire. and, .-eSg ndly, Japan cannot afford to say to the world, We will not reduce our strength, but will enter with deter imitation on a course which will lead to Var"
 1t H agreed IL has three cards to play. one ot which is already on the tablA
 Will Re Rejected
 BEron Kato. the Japanese admiral who Is the brain Of the Japanese dele gation, has already stated to the com ference that were Japan to reduce aces rding to the terms of the Amer icaf proposal, 1t could not adequately defsnd itself. In playing that first car{, he presented an argument which to him appeared plausible but which, 1t Il definitely known, made no inn precision either on the United States or England.
 Ills second stroke has already been hinted in this correspondence. He will, ask that the number of capital vessels allotted to the several powers be increased by one. Were this scheme adopted, he would be enabled to return home with honors because he would have saved the Mutsu, d superdreadnought of modern propor- tons and devices which is the pride of the Nipponese heart. America and England will reject that counter-pro- posal, 1t is plainly indicated to corre- l spondents for those powers. as result of careful analysis, know that an in- crease of the allotment as origh--lly 1 proposed would be unnecessary If na- | tIonal defense was the sole object of the nations solicitude.
 His Final Card
  toned schemes, he will resort to the old game of arousing suspicion and animosity among the nations which sit about the conference table. He | will propose a raging of the naval bases in the Pacific.
 England will instantly oppose that | suggestion. For England not only regards it necessary that she retain her bases in the Pacific, but England | k pews that if the question of naval 1 bases Is opened, 1t will take an ex- ceedingly wide range. It has already | been pointed out in this correspond ence that certain American critics have bitterly protested against the English naval base in the West h. dies. which if properly exercised, could. it is alleged, prevent the con tluence of the American Pacific and | Atlantic fleets.
 The United States has not dis played abiding interest in the ques- ton of bases. No reference to them was contained in the original proposal | thought likely that, as result the United States will stand with Eng land regarding the Japanese proposal. just as England is standing with the nited States respecting the 5-b-3 heme of dismantlement.
 Must Eventually Accept
 It would then be Japan's play to put |
 the breasts of Italy and France a etermined desire, based on national ride, that they be permitted to con truot their navies until they attained | strength equal to that of Japan.
 While England would frown at this | suggestion because of the possibility | that England, in the future, would be ssup against" 6 combined French and | Italian fleet In the Mediterranean. there seems to be no reason why the Italian and French suggestion. If 1t takes tangible form, should be op- | posed by the United States. There is as much unlikelihood of Italy and | France combining as there is that France will declare war against Eng land. At the same time, France and ! Italy are not naval powers, and were they to construct as other nations tear down, it would give rise to the query | as to whether the Washington con ference was a conference for arma- ment or disarmament.
 But. when all is understood, it does seem that Kato will be compelled | eventually to accept the American proposal even at the sacrifice of the Mutsu, Japan can scarcely stand alone against the protests of the civilized world.