The New York herald., 1921-06-19
View in Berlin Is That Loss
of Upper Silesia Would
End All Hope of Max
ing Settlements.
u. S. AID DEPENDED ON
French Overtures, Whose
Sincerity Is Doubted,
Are Being Rejected
by DiplOmatists.
LONDON AND PARIS FEAR
Germany's Indications Of In
creasing Output and Exports
Cause Misgivings in COun-
tries of Allies.
BY SIR PHILIP GIBBS.

DE-Sih uIbbSs
Special Gable to THE New YonK HERALD
Copyright. 1921, by The New YORK HERALD
BERLIN, June 18.-In my last des-
patch l gave what were more or less
my general impressions of life in Ber-
lin tending to show that the German
people were regaining rapidly some Of
their old prosperity, which may en-
able them to pay the enormous indem-
mites to which they are pledged. II
they achieve that it will be, as
think said, the most gigantic adven-
ture ever undertaken by any people,
and it's effects on the rest of the
world are not yet to be calculated for
good or for evil.
In England now Premier Lloyd
George, Winston Churchill and other
men who helped prepare the bill of
costs against Germany and threat
ened heavy penalties in case Of non
payment are beginning to get anxious
lest Germany by an immense increase
In exports, which is her only means
of paying, should become industrially
supreme in Europe and ruin the
trade of her creditors.
This thought is serious at a time
when Great Britain has lost SO per
cent. of her export trade and when
the last trade returns reveal appal-
ling losses in the last three months
owing to the coal strike and the gen.
eral unemployment.
France Also FriEhtened.
France also is torn between a de-
sire to get reparations out of Ger
man industry and the fear of Ger
many's growing strength. There is
financial and industrial group in
France willing to link up with the
German trusts for developments in
Russia, Austria and Hungary. An
other group, entirely political, would
establish an alliance with Germany
to isolate England, but those are
mere skyrockets sent up to distract
attention from the actual workings
of French diplomacy, which is still
directed to undermining Germany's
chance to become a real power in
Europe.
German statesmen are frank in re-
jecting any kind of French overtures,
not believing at all in their sim
cerity. They regard German pos
session of Upper Silesia as a matter
OF life or death to the German hopes
OF recovery, and the French support
Of the Polish claims Is to them in
tolerable.
IF we lose upper Silesia or any
considerable part Of it," said Gustav
Stresseman, leader Of the German
peoples party. which is mainly in.
fluenced by Hugo SHINES, the great
Industrial autocrat, I'VE shall not be
able to pay the indemnities. There is
one OF our main sources of raw ma.
terial for our manufacturers. There
are many of our greatest strongholds
Of industry. German capital, German
organization and German labor have
built up the prosperity of Upper ST.
lesia."
Likely TO Become Chancellor.
had long conversation with this
energetic little man, who is Ger.
many's cleverest politician and is
sure one day not far distant of being
Chancellor. He Is reactionary in
the sense of supporting the old tradi-
tion of German pride and monarch
istic sentiment, and he has told me
frankly that he has no use for de-
mocracy unless 1t is we'll disciplined
and kept working.
But he Is progressive, according
to SHINES, the autocrat wire puller,
who is behind this party in creating
an immense driving, industrial ma
chine by cheap eficient production
built up from coal, iron and steel to
all branches of manufacture depend
ent upon these materials. with cleo
trical developments on gigantic
scale for power and with cheap labor
to compete with the worlds markets.
Herr stresseman spoke at length
about the French policy, and his voice
took on deeper note of passion.
'The instincts of the German peo-
pie" he said, "are for peace. Our
future is in peace and not in war.
We would willingly have made friends