The New York herald., 1921-10-11
Continued from First Page.

these.
Even the handful of intellectuals
cropping for a new order of civilization
and modern progress admit the Scrce
OF the militaristic psychology and the
logic of the arguments behind 1t. They
further concede the power of the
Genro and Imperial family groups CO.
operating with it TO override all re-
sistance from the politicians and small
element among the people who predict
only disaster as the inevitable results
OF a reactionary policy.
With the dominant influences the
first law Of nature is self protection.
The i.eders of this cult reason that It
win be far better for them to invite
a war with a foreign Power than an
upheaval inspired by the growth OF
democratic sentiment at home. In the
estimation of these old leaders q war
of defence" based on national pride
and traditions, would solidify and per-
petuate the empire. while an admis-
sion of guilt and surrender OF terri
torfal and economical advantages
would invite reputation at the hands
Of their own people.
These are some Of the reasons that
underlie and inspire the skilfully and
subtly executed plans to be prepared
by 1924 to cope with any emergency
provoked by outside influence, regard
less of the conclusions of the WASH
ington conference. Every we'll In
formed foreign observer reporting to
hts home Government honestly be-
lieves that while the envoys of the
Mikado's Government are proclaiming
the peaceful ambitions Of 1t at Wash
ington the General Staff will be pre-
pairing at home for contingencies that
may finally result in war. They are
divided In opinion as to the probabili.
ties Of such contingencies. but there Is
none among them who does not be
iieve that Japan will be prepared.
Talismanic Figure.
The figure "a" possesses talisnlanic
significance in the estimation OF the
Japanese militarissa. In 1894 the em-
pire had built up war machine, mod
elled on British and German systems.
which it deemed fully capable OF
inaugurating the first phase of its am
bition for expansion and power. This
Government seized upon an ancient
dispute with China to throw it's splen.
didly organized land and sea units
against the sluggish and badly man
aged Chinese military establishment.
The one-sided conflict was attended by
brilliant and amazing success for
Japan. The victory not only gave 1t a
place in the international sun, but
added to both its territorial holdings
and prestige disputed by Russia alone.
That dispute and the well learned
lessons Of the war with China en-
couraged Japan to resist the further
encroachment Of Russia in Asia. Tho
result Of the conflict Of 1904 was even
more astounding than that with China
ten years before. Within fourteen
months the little brown land warriors
and sea fighters OF the Mikado COM
PEELED Russia to sue for peace. The
fruits of the victory were of such tre-
mendous Importance than Japan at
once became the supreme power in the
Far East and began to reach out for
new economic and political worlds to
conquer.
Even Great Britain recognised the
Japanese claims Of special privileges
in the Orient and found it expedient to
negotiate an alliance that guaranteed
5 the territorial integrity of both. Since
then the Asiatic policies OF Great
Britain have run hand In hand and
never conflicted. Each has provided
protection TO the interests Of the other.
In 1914 the Japanese armies and
navy stormed and conquered the prov
ince OF Shantung, which Germany had
bludgeoned out of China. thereby re-
eucing the foreign holders Of Asiatic
real estate to four-Great Britain.
Japan, France and Portugal, the i'm
terests Of the latter (Macao) being
negligible. The three brilliant sue
cesses of Japan IN 1894, 1904 and 1914
transformed It from a cautious and
agreeable neighbor to an arrogant and
rapacious one.
Taking advantage Of the occupation
OF the other world Powers actively en-
gagged in chastising Germany. Japan
throttied helpless China out Of possess
sions Of incalculable value and as
sumed the role Of economic and po-
litical dictator. which she played with
ruthless and defiant hand until the
calling of the Washington confer ,nce
and an inquiry into the validity Of the
special privileges claimed by her
seemed imminent.
Hand on Siberia.
Nor did Japan stop at China. The
General Staff. perceiving an oppor.
tunity for further expanding the in
nuence OF Japan In Asia, laid menac-
ing hands on Siberia, which carried
with II virtual economic control and
dominion over 1900 miles of Asia
fronting on the Pacific.
And now 1924 is just ahead.
Japan Is industriously preparing to
keep and defend all that she has won
with her armies and navy and politi-
cal intrigue. Her chief dependence. OF
course, Is on one Of the most efficient
military machines OH the globe; her
next on her economic independence
I do not believe there is a single man
Of influence In Japan who will admit
that his country is ambitions to as
sumo the role OF aggressor against the
United States or any other important
Power. But / am quite convinced
that every one OF these men Is su-
premely confident that his country
win resist any attempt, no matter
how powerfully asserted and support
ed, TO compel II to relinquish the ad-
vantaRes she won prior TO 1914 ir
- T. a.