The Washington herald., 1921-08-24

That next winter will be q cold
one is the indication OF weather
data compiled by DR.. C. r. Brooks.
formerly meterologist Of the Wealth
er Bureau here and now assocIat.
professor Of meterology and clima-
toiogy at Clark University.
An analysis Of the weather rec
ords Of over a century indicates
that we are now experiencing a
series Of alterations Of severe and
warm winters. Last fall. On the
basis Of his investigations. DR..
Brooks said that last winter would
be warm. IL was. And he says
that IL is not unreasonable to en-
pect that next winter will be a cold
one and that the winter of 1925
viii be a warm one
The weather seems 10 be repeat
ing itself The present series Of
sharply alternating winters began
in lsl7-IS with the cold weather op
that year. The winter OF forty-fye
years before. 1S72-75, inaugurated a
series Of winters that were severe.
warm, etc, until ISS2-S3. And ils
years ago. indications from incom-
pletely kept records are that the
winter Of 1865 began q similar
series Of alterations.
The two previous remarkable
series Of alternating cold and warm
winters and the present one had
almost identical preliminaries, Dr
Brooks has found. All three series
were preceded by a few moderately
mild winters, an ordinary or mod
erately cold winter, and then a Sc
we're winter, which opened the
swings up and down in the winter
temperature The first Of the mod
crate winters of the present series
was 1894.
II the present surginE Of hot and
cold winters is following the same
pattern Of the alterations Of the
'7Os and the SOS. IL is expected that
they will end with a severe winter
in Is27-2s.
DR.. Brooks findings are based on
weather records from New Bedford.
Mass. -Ne~ York. y. Y, Washing
ton. ID. G, Cincinnati. Ohio. and
Chicago. III, for the present series
and the alterations OF forty-fve
years ago. The date of the series
at the beginning OF the century
were obtained from records made at
Cincinnati. Ohio. and at New Haven.
Conn.
They seem TO hold for the whole
world. however, as he has noted
that when large changes between
the characters OF successive win
ters occur on one side OF the Allan
tic, large ones are usually occurring
on the other side as well. Places
as far separated as Paris and Wash
ington show this connection.
such sequences OF alternating
colder and warmer winters were
evidently the result Of an oscilla
tory movement of the North Al
lantic and North American Sranc
centers OF action OF the atmosphere"
DIR. Brooks says.
That the center Of action ol the
atmosphere or the points OF high and
low pressure should be intensivcly
studied from winter to winter 10
allow successful forecasts Of the
characters Of winters, is urged by
| DR.. Brooks.
In discussing the predictions %
the familiar nonScientihc weather
prophets who periodically mate
long grange forecasts Of the wealth
er Of the following winter. nr
Brooks points out that American
and European investigators seem
TO have established the fact that in
ordinary times a season appreciably
above or below normal in tempera-
ture is likely 20 lie followed by one
| to three or more seasons having
Temperature departures in the same
direction.
Thus 1t may be that forecasters'
Of mild or cold winters who rely on
some biological signs in autumn
may Justly claim more than chance
success, though for different reasons
different from those commonly ad-
vanced." he declares. Five out OF
the seven winter predictions which
came TO me last fall from news
papers east OF the Mississippi River
were TO the effect that last winter
would be mild. according 20 indi-
cations afforded by birds. worms,
squirrels, muskrats. frogs. etc"