The Dawson news. (Dawson, Ga.) 1889-current, 1921-10-11
SMALL CROPS MAKE
1922 SURPLUS LOW
COTTON YIELD LITTLE MORE
THAN u. S. CONSUMPTION.
HIGH PRICES TO RULE.

NEW YORK, N. Y.-The cotton
condition report of 42.2 issued recent
Ily breaks the hitherto lowest record
of 4o.3 Of last month. The average con-
dition as OF September 18th for the
last ten years is GA. The crop tor this
season is estimated at 6,537 900 bales,
and the yield an acre of lint cotton IS
estimated at ll8 pounds, compared
with 1884 pounds year ago.
The indicated crop is 6,5370O0 bales,
compared with 13,439, 900 bales last
wear. In the matter OF yield an acre all
Ipast records are broken. The lowest
previously recorded was 129 pounds an
acre in 1860, while in recent years
the ISL pound an acre yield OF 19lo-l7
set the low level, the crop for that
year being 1l,302,000 bales. The indi-
Gated crop is the lowest since 1886,
which was 6,3l4,561 bales.
What all this means viewed i'll the
light OF pre-war takings of American
cotton by foreign spinners would be
alarming but for the carry-over OF last
season. for our average exports during
the five years l909-l3 were 0,008,000
bales, which is 2,471 900 bales more
than the total indicated crop for this
season. On the other hand the annual
consumption Of domestic mills during
the same hve-year period was $780,
1000 bales, only 100000 bales short OF
the total crop expected this year.
Must Draw Heavily From Surplus.
Taking the last two years, which
may or may not be better criteria, de-
pending upon the price to which this
short crop may be pushed and on the
economic recovery of Europe during
the coming year, exports in the cot
ton year ended July 81, 1920, were
6590,000 bales and in the year ended
July 81, 1921, 5,724000 bales; the con-
sumption in American mills being
1920, 6,429,000 bales, and in 1921 A.
100000 bales. From all Of which it is
clear that if the cotton industry OF
the world is to carry on during the
coming year at anything like the nor
NAL rate it must draw supplies OF raw
material from the accumulated surplus.
The carry-over, according to the vet
eran and generally accurate H. G. Hes
ter, of New Orleans Cotton Exchange,
lis 8,529,000 bales, excluding linters,
which brings the available supply OF
American cotton to 15,066,000 bales
for the coming season. This is ample
to fill the requirements, but will leave
surplus dangerously small for the
future, even if the consumption re-
mains at the low level of last season,
for it is to be remembered that the
proportion of low grade cotton in the
stock on hand is far above the average
of past years, though not nearly so
heavy as the propagandists for the
growers organizations would have the
trade believe.
The Invisible" Supply.
Statistics of the invisible supply,
being the stocks in the hands of the
worlds spinners, are not available up
to date, although Judging from exports
and the rather long period of short
time operations by the mills, both here
and in Europe, it may be taken as
sather above normal. On July 81 last
there were in consuming establish
ments in this country 1,002,9l8 bales
and 1,126738 bales at the same date
| last year.
| 1t may be taken as certain that I'M
reasonable prices will have a greater
! influence in curtailing consumption and
the demand for cotton manufactures
during the coming year than for many
year past, for while cotton goods
led in the price recession they were
still in July at loo, while cotton was
at "a, compared with 100 as the aver
age index of each, during 1913.
1t will also be we'll to recall thai
even before the then record breaking
condition report of last month was pub
Llished spinners had in measure an
ticipated it, and they have continued
to be forehanded by absorbing unusua
quantities during the last month.
1T n