The Washington herald., 1921-09-04
some PRICE GAINS
MAY BE EXPECTED
AFTER DEFLATION
Comparison With Other
After-War Periods
Shows This. =.
AS FROM 1866 TO. 1873
Bureau of Markets Gives Re-
view of the Fluctu-
atoms.

The family man whose income
did not increase between 1914 and
1918 was in a bad way. Everything
he needed. and all the things he
and his wife and children believed
they ought to have to be happy.
became SO costly that a new sys-
tenn of living had to be adopted.
Millions. perhaps, changed their
diet by reducing animal foods. and
meats Of all kinds, and increasing
the use of grains and vegetables:
and' incidentally, very large
number have not gone back to the
old schedules.
Compared with the five-year
average before the world war,
wholesale prices in 1918 had
doubled. or were represented by
zoo as an index number from which
to figure. Many commodities were
higher and many were lower than
this figure would. indicate. How
ever. any product that had not
doubled in price in those days was
relatively cheap. and anything that
had more thaH doubled was rela-
lively high prfed. Prices, 1t will
be seen. are Nigh or low entirely
by comparison.
Usual Drop After war.
The man who went back into
history for his information and
guidance in preparing for what he
might reasonably expect to en-
counter in 1918 or 1919 learned that
the rise and fall of prices in the
period after the world war bore
striking similarity to the same
rise and fall after the war of 1912
and after the civil war. In each
case the highest price level was
reached after the war closed, and
in each case there was an ex-
tremely violent drop. Department
Bulletin sss. just issued by the
United States Department Of Agri-
culture as a contribution from the
Bureau of Markets and Crop Esti-
mates, shows that the rise in prices
during the world war was much
the same as during the civil war
period. but continued longer after
the close Of the war. and resulted
In a more violent drop than oc-
CURED after either the war Of 1872
or the civil war.
After each of the previous wars
very violent drop in prices oc-
CURED. followed by recovery in
part and somewhat stable prices
for a year or more. followed by a
longer but less violent drop, and
again followed by period of
sopewhat stable prices. The drop
in prices of farm products after
the world war. as shown in the
bulletin referred to. began slowly,
increased in rapidity, then dropped
more gradually and by June. 1921,
had. apparently. completed its
downward course. at least that
part which might be described as
violent.
Some Prices to Rise.
To judge by civil war days and
by the slow rate Of recession now.
some price recovery Is to be ex-
pected in the near future. This
does not mean that all prices will
rise. When more products rise in
price than fall, the general price
level will rise, but many products
will be going down 1t is to be
expected that those that have
dropped excessively will rise and
that prices Of most things much
above the general price level will
fall.
The bulletin gives many pages
of comparison of wholesale and
far mprices. A cheerful forecast
Is found in this sentence: Many
farm prices. A cheerful forecast
courage and perseverance will
do much to bring back normal
times"