The New York herald. [volume] (New York, N.Y.) 1920-1924, 1921-07-18
FINANCIAL NEWS
AND COMMENT
Markets Not Yet Prepared to
Estimate Fully Character
of Fall Business.
SOME RETIREMENT SEEN
Construction Factors i'm Indus
trial Notwithstanding Of
German Credits,
SOME RETIREMENT SEEN

III Is eNluent IN most OF the markets
that the country is n~t yet in position
to estimate fully the sort of business
which the autumn months will bring.
This Is not unusual. The approach to
midsummer in years less disturbed by
slaeleened industry and trade than IL
the present one Is nearly always marked
by waiting attitude on the part of
many merchants and manufacturers.
The plans of merchandise interests are
shaped by contemplation of the crops
and until the wheat harvest Is mostly
in hand, along In August, II Is usually
difficult to determine how extensive will
be the purchasing power of farming
communities and cities dependent on
them. This summer, however, the fact
OF business depression, which must be
measured by almost full twelve months,
has to be aligned with seasonal dulness
In forming judgments of the future, and
as far as the financial markets are con-
cerned, complications are inserted by a
state of mind caused by widely voiced
eAPectdtioH thdt llttie Improvement can
be looked for until the autumn season
be we'll developed.
There are undoubtedly depressing
matters to be considered as one attempts
to look ahead, but there are also con-
structive ones. The fact Of extraordinary
inertia In the steel trade Is evident to
all who examine production and earn
ings figures. In the three months
Company had dencit of close to ST.
C00.oo The output was made at loss.
1t is likely that competing companies
will show proportionately unfavorable
results when their quarterly statements
appear. but more than this evidence Of
past unsatisfactory results 1t is clear
from trade reports that the most recent
price cuts have had little IL any effect In
stimulating new orders. 1t is hardly
provocative of cheer to find that price
concessions which carried some impor-
tant products $50 lower than the quo
tations which prevailed for almost two
not had any real influence on business.
Textile Industry BrOadcnh.
Now, on the other hand. reports are
unanimous that the textile industry is
broadening out slowly to be sure. but
neverth eless in a fashion TO show that
early and complete iquidation-with
!
business to a point where people will
buy The building trade Is showing an
encouraging revival. Dun's Revieto re-
| porting that the sl2s.TS,Ooo of new per-
mits issued In 10l cities in June were not
only the largest in total of any month
in more than year. but 1872 per cent.
greater than in June. 1920.
Some heavy transactions in hides have
been put through in the last week and the
shoe manufacturers are reported busy
in most localities. The settlement of the
British coal strike has been followed by
a really slzeable demand for cotton ut
Manchester mills. which has aided in
halting previously falling cotton quota
tons on this side.
While the outlook remains obscure. it
is by no means discouraging from the
point of view of the present or in re-
spect to the autumn, when, conven-
tionally, Improvement Is expected. What
the stock market asks for. however, is
definite assurances that business
growth here and there is nothing more
than a ground swell. having application
to so few lines OF industry as to fail to
describe the situation as a whole. Until
such assurances come 1t seems hardly
likely that there can be an active and
sustained buying power for stocks and
so long as a demand Is lacking the
b ears have slight need to fear reprisals
for their tactics.
bears Mny Not See Improvement.
The chance holds good, however. that
partisans OF the falling side of share
prices will not awaken to the fact of
really improved business until II shall
have proceeded some distance The in
terests who In years of depression know
the true situation ana whose buying
helps stocks discount better conditions
In advance will be picking up stocks sold
to them by the short sellers long before
fundamental changes are recognized by
the spectators for the decline.
For those who link domestic prosperi-
ity with the market for surplus Ameri-
can goods abroad there Is a subject for
study in Germany's current negotiations
for credits In the United States IL Is
known that those negotiations are being
pushed actively; one or two credits OF
moderate amount have been arranged.
and one OF good size In Holland and per-
haps others elsewhere. The arrange
ments for one thing are an earnest that
the German Government intends to live
up to the reparations agreement and will
meet the final instalment for 1891, some
s1sc. c00.C11. due before August s.. But.
Furthermore. the announced purpose OF
part Of the credits Is TO buy grain. cot
ton and copper in the United States.
VIII Germany be the first country to
break what has been almost deadlock
in our foreign trade? II may be rca-
soned that II Germany Is able to supply
adequate collateral and Endorsements for