Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1921-10-06

nre might start, that would reduce the loss from
fires almost to the vanishing point.
THE WISH AND THE THOUGHT.
For about as far back as people have been in
The habit Of making proverbs it has been said that
the wish is father to the thought. We find illus
%trations of this every day in the tendency which ex-
lists on the part doubtless Of most people to deceive
themselves into thinking that the thing which they
desire must be true. While this tendency has it's
desirable features when it is not overdone, it is like
ly to lead to difficulties when the individual yields
to it habitually. The person who goes into business
makes an estimate Of its possibilities and reasons
out for himself the probabilities OF success. If he
yields too greatly to the promptings of hope, he is
likely to emphasize too strongly the pleasing fea-
lures Of the prospect and to ignore those of the op-
posite character. He will estimate his profits too
highly; he will fail to talks due account of some of
his necessary expenditures, and he will be able to
show a paper profit of very desirable proportions.
In actual practice his estimate may be found en-
tirely erroneous, and the business which he thought
was going to be very prosperous turns out to be a
failure. The more conservative method Of figuring
and a more frank facing of the actual facts as he
really knows them would have prompted him to do
business on a somewhat different basis, and might
have saved him unfortunate losses.
We find the same tendency in the marketing Of
crops. The man with a crop Of grain on his hands
III the fall naturally desiresto get the best price pos
sible tor it. He wants tosknow what the price pros
poets are, and IN too many cases he ignores facts
and bases his conduct entirely on hope.
The marketing of grain is necessarily a matter
of judgment. The individual must be guided by his
own information and by conclusions Which his own
reason draws from that information. It is import
ant, no matter what the other elements Of a situa-
ton may be, that his information be accurate. I'm
fortunately, very much of the handling of Our cereal
crops, especially wheat, is based on utter misinfor-
nation, in spite of the fact that actual and accurate
information is available. Year in and year out peo-
pie are told that the fall price of wheat is lower, all
things considered, than the spring price. The rea-
son for this is alleged to be that certain interested
persons, having control of large sums of money,
through manipulating the markets, depress the price
in the fall, buy the wheat at a low figure, advance
the price during the winter and spring months, and
sell at the top Of the market, deriving enormous and
utterly unearned profits. This story has been told
over and over again until it seems impossible by any
citation of figures to disabuse the public mind of it
The statistics are utterly contrary to. this state OF
affairs. The Herald has shown on several occasions
by the publication Of figures whose accuracy has
never been challenged, and which can be verified
whenever desired, that taking one year with another
fail until spring. The spring price in a given pri-
mary market has sometimes been somewhat higher
than the fall price, but in nearly all cases this differ.
ence has not been enough to pay the cost of carrying
the grain over. The farmer who, during the past 25
years, has held his wheat over from fall until the
OAO "AA6 AANA6 0AA~ A~~ SsS~tA SoAN ~ hA0 hSoS AOIINy
in the process. The farmer who for the same period
has invariably sold his wheat in the fall has made
money by 50 doing, There have been particular
years in which money was to be made by holding
over from fall until spring. It is easy on looking
over the record to pick out those years. It was moi
SO easy to distinguish them from others at the time
Had it been so, that condition would not have ex-
listed because had 1t been known in any given year
that the price was to advance materially during The
winter, the fall price wouldshave advanced in sym
pathy, and necessarily; otherwise ali grain wou1d
have been held.
In the year 1921 the owner Of grain must pro
coed as in every other year, as the years past. HI
has before him the record Of a long period. He ha.
certain facts which exist today. He has the posi-
biity Of making : substantial profit by holding hi.
wheat; but that is no more than a possibility. By
no process of investigation and BY no method Of fig
uring can it be brought to accrtainty and the mar
who holds his wheat now, although he may make
profit, is taking the same chance that he would have
been taking in any other year, and in the majority
of years he would have suffered loss had he held
the grain.
The problem before the farmer who contem.
plates holding his grain is that Of determining
whether or not the present year 10 to be one Of ths
exceptions to the general rule. The general rule ii
clear ahd.distinct, and can not be controversial bu,
exceptions are numerous enough 70 warrant the ex
Iercise Of Judgment il any particular case in taking
the chance which Is Involved In holding grain over
Observation-Disclosures says the head
Army 1assie.. BE snrc and serve him something Be
hides the dodighnuts now and then, however, az TIL
thssdlins nnight p< ttxersed-Kansas City Star.