Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1921-06-20
FACTS ON WHEAT PRICES

The Herald has referred frequently to the very Prev
aalent belief that wheat prices are materially lower in
Elne i hA than than IN the spring, and that persons Interested In
8the manipulation of the wheat market are In the habit
Of depressing the prices in the fall in order that thev NAV
ply the farmers grain at the low price. and advancing
az me ioliowing summer months in order that they may
unload atop figures. Some months ago the Herald nuh.
lished table of figures taken from the ohacial n,arket
records of the Chicago board of trade, covering ! period
81 q years, beginning with 1899, and 1t was shown in
this table that while there had been fluctuations in wheat
prices. these fluctuations were not confined to any par
ticuiar months nor was it true that during those years
wheat had been materially higher In the fall than IN the
spr ls Inc ~ years include the entire war period and
SUBSEQUENT years during which the conditions were alb
normal;sbut eliminating those years it was shown. that
the average prices for the &12 months for the preceding
period OF lsss-1s1s inclusive had been as follows, begin
ming with January: 95c, SIC, 97c, CSC, $l.Ol, sl.O2s CSC,
99c. CSC, &c. 94c, &c., The spread between the highest
and lowest price in this period was 8cy
gE@In view of the constant repetition Of the old fable,
IT y well enough to renew consideration of the facts.
Ine 1acts are beyond dispute as they are matters of rec
ord which can be verified by anyone who cares to take
the trouble to verify them. The table shows that the
lowest average for the period was that Of November.
@Ine september average is 98c, 4c higher. The highest
average is for June. The farmer who during those years
had had an opportunity to sell his wheat in Septenb Der
and instead OF doing SO, had held 1t until the following
June taking care each year to get the very highest price
recorded on the markets during June. would have re-
%celved Just &C a bushel more than if he had sold right
from the machine. He would have had storage charges
to pay, and from the amount received he would have
been obliged to deduct interest on money lying idle dur
ing that time. It is quite apparent that he would nave
lost money. 1t has not been a profitable thing year in
and year out to hold wheat from fall lntti summer.
Another feature which must be taken into constd-
Grafton Is the fact that no man can tell whether the price
offered in a given month Is the highest price obtainable
or not In some cases one would have done better to
sell in January than in'June. In, other cases the contrary
rs true, and IN some years, each month has been the at
tracttVe month in which to sell. That fact could not be
known until too late to take advantage of it.. The, indi-
v1dual must use his judgment in all cases andai it is quite
certain that in the course of 16 or 20 years. each year
contadning II months, his judgment would have been al
fault In a good many. cases. It is clear therefore that
while the record shows what cohld lave been done, IT
does not by any means indicate what would have been
OF whether wheat is going up or down a few cents, the 4.
cent margin between the average price of September and
the following June would disa ppear, and instead of profit
there would be shown a loss.