New-York tribune., 1921-02-19

The increase in bunker coal exports
is largely due, not TO increased coal
consumption by shipping, but to the
fact that because of the reduced pro-
duction of coal in Great Britain the
worlds shipping was forced 10 turn
TO the United States for the bulk of
its coal supplies. The increase in oil
exports, however, is due to the great
gain in oil-burning tonnage.
1t is figured roughly that about four
barrels of oil are equal to one ton of
coal in heat-producing efficiency. On
:his basis, the use Of oil by shipping.
that of coal. In 1919, however, the
liGure had increased to about 45 per
cent, and last year to about 70 per
cent
"Siump Is Temporary One''
"six months ago it was common talk
that oil had been entirely eliminated
as a possible competitor OF coal be
cause of the high price of the fluid
and of the great need of its refined
products" says Archibald B. Roose-
yelt, of the Sinclair Oil Company, son
of the late Theodore Roosevelt. "To-
day quite the opposite view prevails on
account OF the fall in the price of
crude oil. The same persons who not
long ago said that oil could not longer
De burned profitably under boilers are
now loudly proclaiming that the most
profitable way to obtain power is by
burning oil fuel
Like all extremes, both of these
are wrong. At present the low oil
market is, | believe, largely a matter
OF psychology. Shipping firms, fac
toneS and industrial plants are only
euYng spot oil; that is to say, small
quantities at times when they have
20 nave 1t. AS result OF this hand
,to-mouth buying oil prices b ave been
covered and the oil companies them
serves are carrying very small stocks in
ssorage This condition will last until
sne business men of America feel that
an upward trend in the price of oil is
1ue' when we will probably see q sud
aen and swift advance in quotations.
Roosevelt Expects Rise
The correlation between the ship
ping business and the oil trade is of
special significance in these days. The
stump IN exports and the withdrawal
VI ships from service have naturally
enormously reduced the consumption of
ea' oli' especially of fuel oil AS soon as
me export business picks up, with
essitant wider employment of ship
ping, the demand for oil fuel will in
1esse and the prices will rise eorre-
sPondlngly. 1t is my belief, however,
mat We shall not in our times and
sieser sager normal conditions see fuel oil as
p'sn n, as 1t was year ago.
lhere has been great stir made
r aoO9t the dwindling oil supplies of the
noria. In my opinion fears on this
lr'fe are, to say the least, premature.
- tGe first place, it must be remem-
sd ssed that the United States for long
sl 1me has supplied and Is still supplying
a;I aT0ut 10 per cent of the worlds total
Vast fields known to contain great
qWntitles of oil as yet remain unde-
ssoped' We have heard fabulous
.. .snes Of Mesopotamia. We have not
is''aeaed I the surface of Africa. China
a,osa a. unknown quantity, SO far as oil
III Junction is concerned The Russian
~ ~, supply has hardly been touched, and
tae production of their various
,sa ,as mas been very considerable Many
fesnssstions e.a will undoubtedly pass be-
sssI .ne world will be seriously men
ssu Dy ShortaYre 0f ejl -