New-York tribune., 1921-11-21
Paris Decision
On Army Cut to
Depend onU.S.
Won't Slash Unless America
Joins in International
Guaranty Against German
Invasion, Is British View
Galleries May Carry Day
Applause Swept Balfour OFF
Balance, and Same Potent
Influence Awaits BRAND
By P. w. Wilson


For years American correspondent of
"The Lowdon Daily Ne,rs and former
Member of Parliament.
Copyright. 1891. New York Tribune rnc
WASHINGTON, Nov. 20.-According
to British expectations M. BRAND will
tomorrow morning make an impas-
stoned appeal for an international
guaranty of the frontiers of France
against possible attack by Germany. I
may repeat my conviction that Great
Britain is ready to join in giving this
international guaranty. My informa-
tion is that Germany also would like to
see France reassured and the present
tension brought to an end. The argu-
ment of Germany is that she has no in
tention whatever Of attempting an at
tack on France and that she would be
relieved, therefore, if such possibility
as France imagines to be were entirely
removed. The question of the intcrna-
tional guaranty is therefore dependent
upon the United States The case will
be SO plainly stated that the United
States will be compelled to indicate
either an affirmative or negative an
swer. The question to be put to the
Administration and to Congress is this:
In the event of Germany again invad-
ing France will you come to the assist
ance of France?
1t is a matter Of great Importance
that this question will be addressed to
the United States in public, not in pri-
vate. The assumption is that in private
American craftsmanship has refused the
guaranty, at ary rate in the definite
form that France desires. But at the
Continental Hall the gallery is factor
that must be reckoned with. The cheers
of the spectators ana rneir silences al
ready have Influenced more than one
decision. In the history Of the world
there has been nothing to compare with
this diplomacy by acclamation. 1t is a
simple fact, we'll known in British
circles, that Mr.. Balfour was on Tuesday
last carried off his feet. He had never
anticipated the rounds of cheering that
greeted his acceptance of the naval pro-
gram laid down by Mr.. Hughes. Those
cheers were also heard in London. They
impressed the Prime Minister and the
Cabinet. 1t was the galleries of the
conference that led Britain to proceed
at once to scrap her combative vessels
under contract. Mr.. Lloyd George, with
characteristic rapidity of decision,
thought that the best way of doing a
10 fn Gn 1rc+ Eln boc
done it first, and now Britain says in
all friendliness to the United States and
Japan: "When are you going to begin
scrapping your ships? Talking and
ideals are all very well, but what about
action?'
Galleries May Decide the Day
Which side will the galleries take
to-day over M. BRAND and the guaran-
ties? 1t is a very vital question. Over
the navies, consider what happened.
Mr.. Hughes made his proposals. Then
Britain and France supported them
and so did Italy. This meant that
Japan would have been isolated if she
had stood out, and she was not willing
to face such isolation. She therefore
had no choice but to mount the band
| wagon as Americans express it,
Now it may be that this morning a
somewhat similar situation may arise.
France will appeal. She will complain
that she is alone in a difficult world
that has been none too kind to her.
She wants the support of friends. Let
us suppose that Britain responds, and
Italy, and japan. l am merely sup
posing. Would not the United States
! then find herself alone, unless she also
made response? How in that event
will diplomacy by acclamation proceed
The guaranty is, after all, largely a
matter Of sentiment. 1t is comrade-
| ship in one country gripping the hand
| Of courage in another country. At the
committing the United States to moth
ing. But in the Continental Hall, how
will Congress behave? 1t may be in
a very different manner.
| 1t is, of course, situation of tre-
mendous possibilities. To what ex-
tent are France and Japan working to-
gether? / do not know, but I can at
least speculate, and the speculation
NAV be an equivalent to knowledge.
For how can you escape the conclusion
/ that If the French army remains in
being, so will the Japanese army re-
main in being? On France depends
the entire prospect of disarmament on
land. In the opinion of most British
in Washington the United States can
not have It both ways. 1t is essential
to her view of the Far East that Jap
anese militarism be abated. If this
means that French militarism must be
also abated then the United States
must either lose her objective in the
Far East or pay her price in the West.
1t is fair to add that the question is
not quite one that you can answer
with a plain yes or no. OF course. if
| the United States says that under no
| circumstances will she join in any for
| eIgn guarantees anywhere or at anv
| time there is no more to be said.
No Reduction With Conscription
But il we take it that she is ready
at any rate to hear argument on the
| subject, there arises at once the i'm
portant point, what is meant by reduc-
tion OF land ornaments? IF France is
determined toretain conscription. what
ever be the guarantees, it follows that
Japan will retain conscription, and 9th
ing very much will be gained. The onlv
reason for guarantees is to get rid of
conscription forever in Europe. Hence
there would be great satisfaction among
all liberals in the Old World If the
United States were to hold her guar
anty as the inducement to France ia
aboilsh conscription and all it means
Seldom in history has there been !
greater opportunity for negotiatinor >
great International quid pro quo. The
United States would give the guarantv
and get certainty of disarmament on