The New York herald., 1921-09-13
REAL PROSPERITY
NOT YET RETURNED
Business Reviving in Most OF
U. s., National Surety Co.'S
QUESTIONABLE Shows.

Although general business in most
parts OF the United States is reviving
end may approach normal this autumn.
real sound prosperity may not return to
certain communities and industries for
az long as one to two years. This Is the
opinion of William b. Joyce, president
OF the National Surety Company. ex-
pressed after an exhaustive investigation
cf fundamental conditions throughout
the country. More than thirty aspects
OF the country's business problems were
covered in a questionable sent out In
pushing the investigation.
Real prosperity will return, the an
swers to the questions declared. when
farm. ranch and mineral products can
be sold again for at least the cost OF
their production when railroads can be
| operated on freight rates low enough to
| permit shippers to sell In their nlerchan-
disc at a profit: when labor. generally
| speaking, again will do a maximum
days work in full. cooperation with en-
rioyers on a readjusted wage: when re-
| adjusted retail commodity prices permit
wage sarners to live self-respectirgly on
| St,Cu TtduJuStGu Wd6eSs dHQ WIlSu lHG
| postwar unemployed class dnds and
settles down into permanent usefulness.
Seven reasons for optimism were men,
toned by merchants, bankers and manu-
| facturers in their Questionna!res. as fol-
lows: Money Is much easier than during
| the last two years, the reserve ratio 10
steadily increasing. labor difficulties In
some States seem to be decreasing and
the workers seem TO be readily cooperat-
| ing In readjustment. the probable favor
able outcome OF the coming disarma-
| ment conference. the hopeful possibility
of lower freight rates, the nationwide
economy policy Of the Government cor
| rorations and the general public, the
| possibility that farmers and stockmen
RAY be able to sell good part Of their
| products on good terms this autumn and
| that they will liquidate their debts.
| Against those seven reasons for op-
| timism, however. were set eight for pes
| sirism. They were the instability OF
| raw material markets throughout the
world. lack of buying power or an un-
willingness to buy by the public. lack
| of buying power In foreign countries,
present railroad freights rates. personal
| and business debts. heavy taxation
| throughout the country and apprehen-
! sion Of Its continuance. unemployment
| and the prospect of much more OF II.
| including possible bread lines In some
| cities, and the failure to liquidate Sow
eral OF last years great national raw
products with the possibility that un-
profitable liquidation of some OF them
| may be forced this autumn.
Replies to the questionnaire." Mr..
Joyce said yesterday, bring out car
tain national economic present-day
truths very clearly and very usefully.
Economic conditions throughout the
country are fundamentally sound. BY
this mean that there seems now no
danger whatever of some great national
trouble. such as many people secretly
worried about year or two ago. Most
OF the present business stagnation is due
to the inevitable readjustment of ex-
aggerated war prices and war wages.
FIn this readjustment some wage earners
will naturally and may enormously
think that they are bearing the brunt
| On the contrary American merchants.
manufacturers and farmers. who are
| overstockcd with goods and products
| created at wartime cost. will be much
the heaviest sufferers. s.....
"Roplies to the QUESTIONABLE show
| strilSingly that the vast majority OF
wage earners and business men alike
understand the situation and accept 1t
| with courage, patience and patriotism.
| To get the attitude of the wage earners,
| | sent one questionable to a prominent
labor leader In Kansas City and he re-
| piled as follows:
"'Wage earners here say their living
expenses take all the money they make
and that rents In self-respecting locali-
ties are actually increasing. Neverthe-
less. although many OF them are ex-
service men and favor the Federal
soldier bonus. they tell me that they
prefer the bonus question be held In
allegiance until general financial and in
dustrial conditions have returned to
normalcy.'
'oThis shows clearly, think. the pa
triotism and intelligence OF American