The New York herald., 1921-12-22

intct DTONlHlOnS OL AIlc new lItdNN are
therefore a guaranty of the territorial
integrity of Japan proper and that the
United States would be morally bound
not only to confer with the other
Powers. but to make good that guar
anty. Such an extreme view is not
taken by the Administration, which
does not regard the treaty as a guar
anty at all.
II IS not believed that more than a
handful of Senators will ultimately be
found voting against ratification. all
though the debate on this point may
delay action.
Any interregnum in conference pro-
ceedings will be brief. not longer than
from Friday until Tuesday, and it is
not quite certain that a halt will be
made before Saturday. All of the
delegates appear to have reconciled
themselves to the belief that the con-
ference itself will continue until the
middle of January even II the naval
program is finished within the next
week.
AS the sea armaments program ap-
proaches completion Far Eastern
problems are beginning to loom up.
and a closer scrutiny of some of them
than yet has been possible reveals sew
eral storm clouds which may portend
trouble. This is particularly true OF
the Shantung and Siberian problems.
In the former the Japanese dele
gates, who up to this time have dis
played the most amiable side of their
character. revealed another phase that
reflected a determination to yield to
universal public opinion only under
tremendous pressure. That which is
true of Shantung also applies to ST.
IBERIA, where the Japanese program is
interpreted as indicating a determine
ton to exact concessions that appear
TO be difficult 10 reconcile with the ma
jority conference sentiment.
However, the attention of the dele
cations at present is centered on the
naval situation. They do not expect
any move to revive direct discussions
between China and Japan over Shan
tung until the Toxic Government has
communicated it's decision regarding
the demands made by China, the rejec-
ton of which summarily ended the
converse tions" between the represen-
tatives of the two countries yester-
day.
The American delegates expect their
French associates will como forward
NTH a definite proposal to support
sheir request for a larger percentage
Ell crusers. torpedo boats and sub
X raaripas allotment than is called for
Wv tag capital ship schedule already
agreed upon by the United States,
Great Britain md Japan.
Jussiaasi- Inference.
Ma IS admitted By The American dele
gate irat Premier Eriand's statement
wired - Saraetofv Irghes justfies
the infgvenca that tho French may
ask for a1t'ciity % n'ain ain an aux
iliary fleet lalcer lnaa the other four
naval Powers gr5 as either neces-
sary or desirace riley appear to be
quite certain tina French estimate
as to her defensive needs will call for
en- allotment Of auxiliary tonnage ex-
ceeding the percentage favored by the
more important sea Powers.
They do not expect France will
stipulate that In return for sacrificing
any part Of the $50, 900 tons Of capital
ships proposed by her delegates last
week she be allowed to build the
equivalent in auxiliary craft, includ-
ing submarines. Another point on
which the British delegates are conf
dent is that the French delegates will
ask the privilege of maintaining very
high percentage of submarine craft
much larger. in fact, than the dele
gates of the other important sea Pow
ers can regard as acceptable.
The impression is growing In force
that the French delegates will attempt
TO justify their request for light cruis-
ers and submarine tonnage exceeding
the maximum favored by other nations
by setting up unusual defensive neces-
stiles in the absence of guarantees or
protection from the larger naval Pow
ers.
ForIorn Hope Apparent.
There is apparent in the French dis
cussion of this feature of tho confer
ence naval program a forlorn hope
that the United States may yet assent
10 some such guaranty despite it's pre-
vious decisions to the contrary. The
British delegates are credited with still
holding the opinion that their French
associates have not entirely abandoned
hope in this respect.
The British delegates are prepared
for French opposition to the subma-
rine plan which Mr.. Balfour and Lord
Lee will present to the naval commit
zee either during or after discussion
Of the French proposal The British
delegates caused it TO be known to-
day that they will submit to the COM
mittee a complete statement of its
views regarding the value of subma-
rnes as weapons of defense.
II the British contention is rejected.
MS seems wholly probable, Mr.. Balfour
and Lord Lee will appeal TO the full
conference and repeat their protest
against countenancing the submarine
as an agent of defense. There does
not appear TO be any reason 10 believe
that the British delegates will refuse
10 accept the judgment OF the confer
ence.
The majority sentiment OF the con-
ference seems TO be Enthusiastically op-
posed 70 the submarine policy pre-
sented by the British Government be-
cause with the excpptfon NJ IIoiiapd