The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1921-12-27
u. S. PRECIPITATINC
UPSET LIKE FIUME,
PREDICTS SIMONDS
Submarine Fight Likely
To Deadlock Farley or
Overthrow BRAND.
By FRANK H. SIMONDS.

France will not recede in the
matter of the submarine. When the
conference reassembles today and
the French reply to the Hughes
compromise proposal is presented,
the, choice will be between an in
definite deadlock and the abandon
ment of any attempt to fix a limita-
tion of submarine tonnage at the
present conference.
There is. moreover. one even more
dangerous possibility, namely, that
American insistence upon a limita-
Lton will lead to just such another
episode as the Fiume affair in the
Paris conference. In fact, we have
been on the edge of such a develop
ment for many days, ever since Mr..
Hughes made a direct appeal to NJ
BRAND over the head of the French
delegation here in the matter OF
battleships.
Everyone remembers when. during
the Paris conference, Mr.. Wilson.
disturbed over the attitude of Or
lando and Sonnino in insisting upon
Italian possession of Fiume, ad
dr essed his celebrated appeal di-
rcctly to the Italian people and most
everyone recalls that the effect, to-
tally unforeseen by Mr.. Wilson. was
the fall of the Orlando -Sonnina min
istry and the postponement of any
settlement of the Fiume question for
several wears
Seen As Direct Parallel.
To every European in Washington
Mr.. Hughes recent direct conversa-
tion with NJ. BRAND was a direct
parallel. Immediately after Mr..
Hughes action was known, there
came reports from the French dele
cation that NJ. Sarraut was contem-
plating following Orlando's example
and leaving the conference. In the
end, NJ. Sarraut decided to remain,
but not until there had been some
very interesting dispatches ex-
changed between himself and NJ.
BRAND
The interest in these dispatches
6rew out of the following situa-
ton. Technically, NJ. BRAND, as
president of the French council, is
M. Sarraut's superior. but politically,
the votes which NJ. Sarraut controls
In the French chamber Of deputies
are an important element in the
slender majority by which NJ. BRAND
retains his office. Should NJ. Sarraut
quit NJ. BRAND. the present ministry
would almost inevitably fall.
Therefore, Mr.. Hughes's first mes
sage placed NJ. BRAND in a very
awkward fix. On the one side he
obviously desired to avoid any break
with the United States, on the other
his own political fortunes were in
volved. The thing was complicated
still further, when, after a first favor
able message sent by NJ. BRAND, Mr..
Hughes addressed still a second COM
munication to NJ. BRAND.
This led to something Of a show
down and NJ. BRAND gave NJ. Sarraut
assurances that henceforth communi-
cation between France and the United
States would come through NJ. Sarraut.
This point was emphasized by the
transmission Of NJ. Brands second
answer to Mr.. Hughes through M.
Sarraut. Thus an end was put to fur
ther overhead conversations"
Meantime much harm had been done,
and this harm remains an obstacle to
further progress in the matter Of the
submarines. The French press took
up the issue of American coercion"
and there was sharp resentment at
what the French regarded as a press
campaign in the United States to force
the acceptance OF the American view
Of the naval tonnages.
The situation seems fairly clear. NJ.
Sarraut has stated the French view
which is totally incorporating in the
matter Of secondary ships, cruisers
and the like. II, by any chance, as
is wholly unlikely, NJ. BRAND should
reverse the judgment Of NJ. Surraut
and yield to Mr.. Hughes. Sarraut
would resign and his resignation
Continued on PG1e Ten