Perth Amboy evening news., 1921-11-22

WASHINGTON, Nov. 19-The
next world war, if it takes place,
will probably be won by the strong
est nation which succeeds in stay
ing out of it.
This consideration, which is based
upon the calculations of military
experts concerning the future wars,
as well as upon the obvious les
sons of the one just over is UNI
dcubtedlv a powerful force making
for disarmament.
1t is probable that each of the
principal nations. in the neXt few
decades, will strive for the limita-
ton of armament and the adjust
ment of international relations In
such a way hat its own liability
! to be embroiled in war will be
reduced to a minimum.
1t does not follow that this will
always make for international
peace. 1t probably will do so in a
general way, but it means that
while each nation will itself strive
to keep out of war, it will often be
Of advantage to a given nation TO
embroll it's chief commercial rivals
in a war. For example, some OBJ
servers have commented upon the
fact that certain sections of the
French press dwell a great deal
upon the points which may produce
antagonism between Great Britain
and the United States. 1t has been
pointed out that should the United
States and Great Britain ever n
gage in a war without France be-
ing involved in any way, at the end
of that war France would occupy a
much stronger International posi-
ton than she does now. 1t has
been suggested that the French
government ni1y not be wholly obli-
yious to this tact. Whether it has
any influence on French policy or
not, 1t illustrates the point under
consideration.
The Case of England
Another illustration has been
brought to light by discussions Of
the Anglo-Jap alliance. Whether
this alliance shall be renewed or
not is one of tie crucial questions
of the conference. In the canvass
of considerations which probably
affect British policy in this regard
it has been pointed out, as a reason
why Britain might wish 10 discon-
tinue the alliance, that in case OF
war between Japan and the Unit
ed States, Great Britain could win
that war by staying out Of it. 1t
is stated that if Japan and the
United States fought for four years,
during thai time Great Britain
would regain the position of con-
trolling financial center of the
world, which has now passed to
1.-The United States. and would also
greatly increase her commerce.
I She would do this by selling goods
and lending money to the belliger-
ents, who would constantly weaken
each other. OF course Great Bril-
tain's relative gain by staying out
of the war is much greater by rea-
son of the fact that if she went
into it she would lose Canada, and
nothing she could gain would re-
pay her for that loss. But even
leaving Canada out of consideration
Great Britain could gain only by
staying out of such a war. The
United States would lose her inter-
national leadership by such a war.
ir all probability, even if she won a
victory.
The same factors appear in all
calculations that are made concern
ing possible future wars. There
are nations which might gain by
| successful war in certain circum-
stances, and these are noted to be
the least e~n.lusiastic for disarm-
ament. But, in general, war 10
longer pays az a commercial adj
venture. You have only to look
back a little way to see that the
fact marks a revolutionary change
in the basis of International policy,
1t is a coInonplace of political
economy nat nearly all modern
wars have been fought for COM
mercial advantage. To be more e
act. they have been fought to give
the foreign investors OF a given
country a preferential right in eX-
plotting the natural resources OF
various parts Of the world and in
selling manufactured goods to a
ricus peoples. A nation which has
been successful in IT'S wars in the
past has gained thereby new
sources of raw material TO exploit
and new markets from which Its
competitors were wholly or partly
excluded. This advantage has re
suited in an accumulation Of wealth
in the successful country. This
wealth Is always in the hands Of ths
relatively few men who have money