Evening star., 1921-10-27
COTTON FORECAST,
/. 6,427,70O BALES
Estimate Of U. S. Crop in
1921 Features Conven-
tion Address.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala, October 81
The American Cotton Association to-
day announced forecast OF the cot
ton crop Of the United States in 1921
to be 6,427.700 bales. This estimate
was contained in the address of j.
Skottowe Wannamaker, president,
delivered at tho opening session of
the annual convention here. Mr..
Wannamaker also presented esti-
mates Of the supplies Of raw cotton
in this country. and a forecast Of
consumption by the mills Of the world
for the cotton season beginning Au-
gust l, 1921. and ending July 81, 1922.
United States stocks Of tenderable
carry-over was estimated as Of Au-
gust 1. 1921. at 5.133 .4s1 bales. The
estimated consumption, American and
canadian: a to eoo August Hns !. 1872; was vas
estimated demand for exports to the
same date was given as 6.500.000,
making a total estimated consump-
ton Of 100000. or a deficiency in
| supplies Of 45s,s0S bales.
ut is unanimously agreed by econ
omists," Mr.. Wannamaker continued.
that IL IL necessary to have on hand
| at the close Of the cotton year on
July 81 at least 100000 bales Of
American cotton to supply the needs
| until the cotton from the growing
crop can reach the spindles, SO that
| the apparent shortage will be more
| marked than it appears from figures
given.
September MIL Consumption.
THE cotton mill consumption in
the United States for the month of
September just passed amounted to
| 4S5.000 bales. or at the rate of
5.829,000 bales a year. The exports
for September were at the rate of
.6.276.000 bales per annum, making a
| total domestic consumption and ex-
ports exceeding 100000 bales. Our
forecast of consumption for the
twelve months ending July 81, 1922.
based upon the above facts. is. there
! fore, conservative, as consumption is
| increasing instead of diminishing. AS
! exports of American cotton for the
! second week in October amounted to
! 244,00O bales, or at the rate of over
! 1880, 900 bales per annum for ex-
ports alone. If this rate of exports
should continue for six and a half
would be shipped abroad to foreign
spinners, leaving only the stocks
| brought over from the 1920 crop to
supply our domestic mills.
World Production in 1921.
THE world production Of cotton in
1921. at present. is estimated to be
under 100000 bales. against a
normal production of 1000. 900 bales.
| The American and Egyptian crops
will not exceed SO per cent of the
1920 production. This tremendous
shortage cannot be supplied by the
estimated carry-over Of cotton
| throughout the world. Either there
must be an enforced restriction in
spindle operation during the next ten
months or the supplies of spinnable
cotton will be practically exhausted
by July 81. 1922.
| 'The 1921 cotton crop. based upon
present estimates, indicates the short
est yield of any crop in thirty-five
years. This is due to reduction of
practically 80 per cent in the cotton
acreage planted this year as compared
with the 1920 acreage: the non-use of
Ihigh-grade commercial fertilizers: the
widespread destruction by the cotton
boil weevil. and adverse climatic con-
ditions In all sections of the cotton
belt"