The Rock Island Argus and daily union. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1920-1923, 1921-11-29
Frederick Haskin's Letter
Too Expensive To Fight.
tspesh Correspondence Of Ths Az

Washington, D. c. Nov. 2s.-The
next world war, if it takes place,
will probably be won by the strong
est nation staying out of it.
This consideration, which is
based upon the calculations of mil
itary experts concerning future
wars, as well as upon the obvious
lessons of the one just over, is I'M
doubtedly a powerful force making
for disarmament.
1t is probable that each OF the
principal nations, in the next few
decades, will strive for the limita-
ton of armament and the adjust
ment of international relations in
such a way that its own liability to
be embroiled in war will be reduced
to a minimum.
1t does not follow that this will
always make for international
peace. 1t probably will do so in a
general way, but 1t means that
while each nation will itself strive
to keep out of war, it will often be
of advantage to given nation to
embroil its chief commercial rivals
in a war. For example, some OBJ
fact that certain sections of the
French press dwell great deal
upon the points which may produce
antagonism between Great Britain
and the United States 1t has been
pointed out that should the United
States and Great Britain ever en-
gage in a war without France be-
ing involved in any way, at the end
of that war France would occupy
much stronger international po-
sition than she does now. 1t has
been suggested that the French
government may not be wholly OBJ
Hvious of this fact Whether it
has any influence on French poll
icy or not, it illustrates the point
under consideration.
The Case of England.
Another illustration has been
brought to light by discussion of
the Anglo-Jap alliance. Whether
this alliance shall be renewed or
not is one of the crucial questions
of the conference. In the can
vass of considerations which prob
ably affect British policy in this
regard, it has been pointed out, as
reason why Britain might wish
to discontinue the alliance, that in
case of war between Japan and the
United States, Great Britain
could win that war by stay
ing out OF, it. 1t is stated that If
Japan and the United States fought
for four years, during that time
Great Britain would regain the po-
sition of controlling financial cen
ter of the world, which has now
passed to the United States, and
would also increase her commerce.
She would do this by selling goods
and lending money to the belligeT-
ents. who would constantly weak
en- each other. OF course Great
Britain's relative gain by staying
out of the war is much greater by
reason of the fact that if she went
into it she would lose Canada. and
nothing she could gain would repay
her for that loss. But even leaving
Canada out of consideration, Great
Britain could gain only be staying
out of such a war. The United
States would lose her international
leadership by such a war. in all
probability, even if she won a vie
tory.
The same factors appear in all
calculations that are made con-
corning possible future wars. There
are nations which might gain by
successful war in certain circum-
stances, and these are noted to be
the least enthusiastic for disarm-
ament But, in general, war no
longer pays as a commercial ad-
venture.
You have only to look back a lit
tie way to see that this fact marks
a revolutionary change in the basis
of international policy. It is a
commonplace of political economy
that nearly all modern wars have