The Washington herald., 1921-06-26
MUTUAL DEPENDENCE IN INDUSTRY FACTOR In FRANCOGERMAN

may conclude quite safely, then,
that for the next thirteen years the
process of disarmament will con-
tinue In Germany. the military es-
tablishment win disintegrste. inev.
itably.
Not before 1924 at the earliest,
can Germany undertake the task of
rcconstructing her military forces
and this represents a span of fifteen
years and a half between the sur.
render of November IL, 1918, and
the moment when reconstruction
can begin. But in this time most
of the military leaders of the last
war will have died or been retired
by age. OF the soldiers who then
made up the German army. the
rank and file. all but the youngest
classes, will have become incapaci-
tated by age. The boys of 20, who
served in the closing phases OF the
final campaign, will be we'll over 3S.
Bars Military Training.
And in their places no other
classes will have been trained, II
Is true CAat there have been and
will continue to be evasions of the
disarmament clauses. but these
evasions will not exceed insignifi-
cant details. For fifteen years there
will be no conscript army, the youth
Will not be called. Moreover, II IL
foolish to imagine that any attempt
by clandestine methods to enforce
national training will fail to awak-
en- domestic protest such as must
excite international protest and In
.terference. II certain parents will
send their sons voluntarily, even
In Germany II is undeniable that
many others will take advantage of
the situation to avoid the blood tax
for their children. 1t Is the habit
Of submission to conscription, of
military service, which will be de-
stroyed by fifteen years of disarm-
ament such as the treaty Of ver-
sailles provides.
Germany Will Grow Weak.
One may conclude. then. quite ac-
curately, first that any prospect of
an immediate German attack is
preposterous. Every Frenchman
knows that Germany cannot today
attack. that her disarmament has
reached point where Il would be
nothing short OF suicide for her to
challenge the army Of Foch. Such
a German enterprise would merely
Provide destruction far within Ger
man territory; II would be Essen,
Dusseldorf. Cologne. Frankfort,
which would suffer. not French
cities. Lacking heavy artillery.
ammunition. airplanes, all the para
phernalia of modern war, the Ger
mans would succumb briefly and
terribly. And 1t Is equally correct
to conclude that for thirteen years
Germany will grow weaker. not
stronger: even French witnesses
testify to this fact frankly.
II IN 1884 Germany, her soil evac-
uated, should undertake to arm
herself, she would instantly arouse
the protests Of millions of her citi-
zens who could have no desire to
undertake anew the old burdens Of
armed peace. And political oppo-
abroad the purpose to repeat her
preparations which led to the in
vaslons OF 1914.
Sentiment Likely to Change.
However much one may weigh
the hopes and the aspirations of
masses of the German people TO
undo by violence If necessary the
decisions of Paris, it seems to me
possible. And a full generation in
pass before the thing is conceivably
possible. And a full generation is
which preparation for war is. at
best. secret and circumscribed,
means a change in the sentiment Of
the mass of the people. This is
what happened in France in the
years following 1870. On the NOR
row Of the defeat most Frenchmen
and mot Europeans looked for a
prompt French attack, but no at
tack came. On the contrary, year
by year, II became more and more
certain that France would never
again by her own action. bring a
new German war. even to redeem
her lost provinces.
Will Lose Ability to Attack.
In sum, It seems to me inevitable
that with the passing Of years two
things will take place. First, Ger
man inability to make a successful
attack upon France will increase,
by reason Of the operation Of the