Jackson County sentinel. (Gainesboro, Tenn.) 1914-current, 1921-12-01
COMING winter
Will Be COLD
Scientist Makes Prediction Al.
ter STUDY Of Weather
WEATHER REPEATING ITSELF


Analysis of Data Covering Century In
dcates We Are Now Experiencing
Series of Alterations Of Severe and
Mild WintcrsAA Season Above or
Below Normal in Temperature Like
ly to Be Followed by One to Three
Just Like II.
Washlngton.-That next winter will
be "a cold one Is the indication Of
weather data compiled by DIR. G. f.
Brooks, formerly meteorolOgist of the
weather bureau here and now assOci-
ate professor of meteOrol0gy and eli
natology at Clark university.
An analysis of the weather records
Of over a century indicates that we
are now experiencing Il series of al
formations of severe and warm win
tiers. Last fall, on the basis Of his
Investigations, Doctor Brooks said that
last winter would be warm, 1t was,
And now he says that 1t is not I'M
reasonable to expect that next winter
will be a cold one, and that the win.
ter Of 1929 will be warm one.
The weather seems to be repeating
Itself. The present series of sharply
alternating winters began in 1918
with the cold weather Of that year.
The winter of 40 years before, 1872
70, inaugurated series of winters
that were severe, warm, severe, warm,
ETC., until 1928. And l13 years ago,
Indications from incompletely kept
records are that the winter of 1S04-5
began q similar series Of alterations.
Identical PreIimInaries.
These two previous remarkable Sc
rles Of alternating cold and warm win
ters and the present one had almost
Identical preliminares, Doctor Brooks
has found. All three series were pre-
coded by a few moderately mild win
ters an ordinary or moderately cold
winter, and then severe winter,
which opened the swings up and down
In the. winter temperature. The first
Of the moderate winters of the pres
emit series was 1013-14.
II the present surglng of hot and
cold winters is following the same pat
tern Of the alterations of the seven
ties, II is expected that they will end
with a severe winter In 1929.
Doctor Brooks findings are based on
weather records from New Bedford,
Mass, New York, N. Y, Washington,
u. O., Cincinnati, o., and Chicago, H.,
for the present series and the alterna-
lions of 45 years ago. The data Of
the series at the beginning of the cen
fury were obtained from records made
ut Cincinnati, o., and at New Haven,
Conn.
They seem to hold for the whole
world, however, as he has noted that
when large changes between the char
acters of successive winters occur on
one side Of the Atlantic, large ones
are usually occurring on the other side
as well. Places as far separated as
Paris and Washington show this con-
nection.
Centers Of Action.
"Such sequences Of alternating cold
er and warmer winters were evidently
the result of an osclllatory movement
of the North Atlantic and North
American grand centers of action Of
the atmosphere. Doctor Brooks says.
That the centers of action of the
atmosphere, or the points Of high and
low pressure, should be intensively
studied from winter to winter to allow
successful forecasts of the characters
Of winters, Is urged by Doctor Brooks.
In discussing the predictions of the
familiar non-scientitic weather proph-
cts who periodically make long-range
forecasts of the weather of the fol-
lowing winter, Doctor Brooks points
out that American and European in
vestlgators seem to have established
the fact that in ordinary times sea-
son appreciably above or below nor
NAL In temperature is likely to be fol-
lowed by one to three or more seasons
having temperature departures in the
same direction.
Thus 1t may be that forecasters'
Of mild or cold winters who rely on
some biological signs 10 autumn may
Justly claim more than chance success,
though for reasons different from
those commonly advanced" he de-
clares. give out of the seven winter
predictions which came to me last fall
from newspapers east Of the Missls-
sippi river were to the effect that last
winter would be mild, according to
indications afforded by birds, worms,
squirrels, muskrats, frogs, ETC."
Ain E0R WEATHER FORECASTS