The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-03-23
HEFL|N IS HANDED SHORT, STIFF JOLT
 BY G|ST'S REPORT
FaEm Statistician Says Sena- toh Missed Cotton Estimate By Million and a Half
 BaIeS-ExpectS Denial
Fly FRED H. GORMLEY Montgomery, Bureau, The Age-Herald 221-2 First National Bank BuildinG


 Montgomery, March 22.-(Special) )--Sen- ator J. Thomas Heflin received gentle but positive jolt from F. W. Gist, agri- cultural statistician, today as a result of tho publication of the report of the bu- reau of census showing the amount of cotton ginned in 1920 to have been 13,365,- 754 bales.
 MT. Gist said Senator Heflin "in his an nual denial of the accuracy of the esti- mate of the bureau of crop estimates" said the prediction of 12,eS7, 900 bales was too high. The truth is, as shown by the per cent below the actual production. MT. Gist had estimated Alabama's total cot ton crop at 660,00O bales which was 5000 bales, or four-tenths of l per cent too low
 Referring to the comparison of the esti- mate with the actual production, MT. Gist said: This reminds me that last De- cember, Senator Heflin, in his annual denial of the accuracy of our estimates said that we were at least one and quarter million bales too high. He ar
  suming that the amount ginned to that date represented the average percentage for a given number of years The sen ator turns out to be 1,629,000 bales, or 12.2 per cent, too low in his estimate. Since that date he has proposed to abolish re- ports on cotton after the gin reports be- gin on the theory that the latter give accurate indications of the final crop from their beginning. 1t is evident that 
 tfeir analysis of the gin reports, even as late as December l. as has the sen ator, that method would lead into grave and costly error"
 STATE REPORT
 MT Gists entimate follows:
 The final report of the census bureau on the amount of cotton ginned from the crop of 1920, showing 1S 365, ,754 bales of 50o-pound gross weight, considered with the recent report of the same bureau on consumption, exports and amount in hand, indicates that there are held on farms at the present time approximately 4,3720Oo bales, according to an analysis of the two reports by F. w. Gist, agri- cultural statistician, and issued yester- day. MT. Gist gives the following tabu- lated statement compiled from the two reports, as resulting in the conclusions draEn:
 Ar&unt in United States unused
 on August 1. 1920 ...-.............. 4,57s 900
 Less InterS ...................... 65S,OOO Actual cotton unused ...,...... 3,915, 900 Ginned of the crop of 1920 ....... .13, ,S66 600 Imported to February B. 1921 .... 1560oo
 Total supply II, ,ooo Probable imports to end of this
 year (July aD .s................. n2,ooo
 Total for year ...............17 .17, ,549 600 Consumed in United States to
 February S, 1921 .........,....... 2,729, ,0oo Exported to February 2s. 1921, S5o4,OOo
 Total use to date te.......... 6,233, 900 On hand unusel to date ........... il ,204, 900 Probable consumption and exports
 to end of season -......-....s..... 4,450,UVV Probable carry over July 3f. 1921. 6S66,00o
 Of the amount unusued at present, 1,335, 900 bales are in consuming estap- and public storage, leaving 4,s72. 900 bales as the number held elsewhere, presuma- bly, on farms
 Speaking of the final gin report, the figures shown above, Mr. Gist calls at tention to the fact that the bureau or crop estimates. to which he is attached, estimated the total crop last December at lz,Sct ,OUV pdleS. fOllOWlHS tue usual tendency of the bureau to underestimate, the deviation is now shown to be 2S per cent of the entire crop
 This reminds me-" says Mir. Gist, "that last December Senator Heflin. in his annual denial of the accuracy of our estimates, said jthat we were at least one and quarter million bales too high. He arrived at his conclusion as usual by assuming that the amount ginned to that date represented the average pere centage for given number of years. The senator turns out to be 1,62e,000 bales, or 122 per cent too low in his estimate.
 Since that date he has proposed to abolish reports on cotton after the gin reports begin on the theory that the latter give accurate indications of the final crop from their beginning. It is evident that if others interested prove as unhappy in their analysis of the gin re ports, even as late as the first of De- cember, as has the senator, that method would lead into grave and costly error.
 The estimate for Alabama was 66o,9Oo, which turns out to be 5000 bales, or four tenths of 1 per cent below the actual einningE.