The Washington herald., 1921-02-06
Worlds Surplus on July
81 Estimated at More
Than 100000 Bales.
CONSUMPTION LOW
Increased Buying and Europe's
Return to Normality Leading
Factors in Future Situation.

kets, are the low consumption by
American and European mills and
the very low consumption by Cen
tral European countries, including
Russia The worlds consumption
during the past three years, in fact.
has been considerably below the
prewar average. The recent de-
cline in consumption by American
and European mills can doubtless
be attributed in a large measure to
the apathy shown blythe public to-
ward manufactured goodss. Disin-
clination on the part of the public
to purchase is naturally reflected in
hesitation on the part of the manu-
fscturers to pile up stocks to be
sold at an uncertain price.
Important questions arise as to
whether the world consumption or
raw cotton has decreased in pro-
portion TO the decreased purchases
Of Central Europe and whether the
world has adjusted itself to a level
Of cotton consumption lower than
the prewar level. II the lower
consumption level is due to the low
buying power of Central European
consumers, then only a gradual re-
turn to prewsr consumption can
be expected in proportion as Eu-
rope regains her buying power.
World Production Decreases.
That the world production as well
as the world consumption has drop
ped considerably during the past
few years is shown by the data
summarized in table l accompany
ing this article.
The figures in table l seem to In
dicate that both the average pro-
duction and average consumption
Of the world commercial cotton crop
have declined during the past few
years by approximately 100000
bales. This decrease in production
prevented the accumulation of an
abnormal surplus up to August l,
1890.
with the 1s2o-21 world crop esti-
mated to be 2,50O,0OO bales larger
than the average of the past three
years. it appears quite probable that
a large surplus may accumulate by
the end of 1921. If the world crop
this year is normal and consump-
ton continues low, cotton growers
Hfn undoubtedly fnd themselves in
a serious situation when they at
tempt to sell'the new cotton crop.
In table 2 figures are given for
the 1o-year period from 1910 to 1920,
showing the worlds commercial
cotton crop, the worlds cotton con-
sumption of all growths, and the
worlds supply of all growths of
cotton at the end Of each cotton sea
son. linters excluded.
The data at hand showing the
present rate Of American consump-
tion so far this season indicates it
is IS per cent below that of 1919
20.
II it can be assumed that this de-
cline in American consumption will
hold for the remaining seven
months of this season, and that the
entire consumption by other cOun-
tries will show the same reduction
in consumption as is now indicated
by American mills, it means that
the worlds consumption for 1920-21
will amount to 13,l66,25O bales, or
IS per cent less than last years
figure of 17.555,OOO bales. Exports
from the United States this season
are so far about 21 per cent below
the corresponding period last year.
The trend of consumption may
change. 1t is apparent, therefore,
that the principal matters to be
closely observed during the next
few months are any economic fac
tors influencing a trend toward nor
NAL consumption.
Analysing the figures in table 3,
it is found that at the close of the
1880 season Gully 81. 1920 the
world supply OF cotton of all
Erowths amounted to 5,S46,O0O bales.
AIDING to this the production OF
cotton for 1s2o-21, estimated at 49,
7ss,0O0 bales, the available supply
iOf all cotton throughout the world
for -192O-21 amounts to approx
Rately 25.624.oOO bales. At the
present rate of consumption this
means that there will be an avail
able supply of 12,457,75O bales of
cotton in the world on July 81, 1891,
or about 6,s11.75O bales more than
last year. and 4.105,750 bales more
est supply On record (8,352,Oo0
,bsles).
The world consumption of cotton
during the 1890 season amount
cd to 1855, 900 bales of 500 pounds
each, gross weight. The world con-
sumption during the first five
months of that season august to
rDecember) amounted to 7,1SS,S35
bales, while the consumption for
the remaining season (January to
July) was 1O.366,1s5 bales. If the
world consumption for the remain
ing seven months of the present
cotton year January to JULY
equals that for the corresponding
period last season, il will change
the total consumption OF cotton
throughout the world to 15,757,7s2
bales. This would leave a total
supply on hand at the end of the
192o-21 season amounting to 1885,
EOS bales of 500 pounds each, gross
weight
The two important trade possi-
bilitieS to be kept in mind during
the next few months are increased
buying on the part Of the public
and the return Of central and east
ern Europe to normal consumption.
Itais generally expected that the
public in this country will renew
purchasing. This will stimulate
prices, but the movement will have
to be unusual in order to material
~ reduce the threatened surplus.
Central European consumers, how
ever, cannot be expected 10 pur-
amount during that period, and
probably several years may elapse,
before purchases reach the prewar'
average.
raels I.-Assraxs PrOductisn and consump-
Hsn. Untsrs Exeludsd.
t1e11-I2 to 1sis-2o,l
World World con-
production sumption