The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1921-08-10
THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.

| Business men, bankers, brokers.
financiers, in fact almost all who keep
close tab on the business and financial
situation, seem to be united in declar-
| ing that the deflation period is about
over.
| 1t is being pointed out that reduc-
| ton of interest rates at federal re-
serve banks practically to their nor
NAL pre-war level closes the era of
contraction of credits thru high inter-
est rates. Continued importation of
gold on a large scale is broadening the
holdings of reserve banks at a present
There is a disposition on the part of
the banks generally to grant more lib
! eral credits to all lines of trade in
which sound demand can be recog-
nized.
Henry C1ews in his Financial Re
view voices the we'll nigh unanimous
opinion of the business world when he
| says:
That business in general already
feels the improvement in trade pros
poets, and is preparing to take advan-
to6O JILL 10 1uuASdL60 HI IndIiy ways.
The upward movement in the price of
bonds, altho slight, is significant. Bond
prices are usually first in any upward
market, to improve. preceding stocks
in their recovery. As for the activity
of trade. the index of bank deposits
complied weekly by the federal re-
serve board shows a steady upward
movement. Money is clearly moving
toward permanently lower levels, even
tho these lower levels may not be
continuously maintained. AS is well
known, railroad traffic movements, as
well as earnings, are beginning to
show improvement; and this has be-
come more pronounced within recent
weeks.
Retail trade, as evidenced by the re-
| turns of department stores, has been
unexpectedly well sustained and is in
better volume in most parts of the
country than was true at this time a
year ago. In particular lines of trade
the indications are encoura ging. This
continues to be true in textiles, manu-
features of leather, and nearly all lines
which produce articles ready for con-
sumption. Even in iron and steel
some decided advances have been an
nounced during the past week.
Financially speaking. the crop out
look is proving satisfactory. Even the
unfavorable cotton prospect an
nounced by the government, is helpful
to those who are already overloaded
with cotton carried over from last
year, as is the case of many in the
cotton growing regions. Yield in most
branches of agriculture gives every
promise of being good, and the money
return will be correspondingly favor
able Thoro arrangements for financ-
ing the crop have now been made Re
serve banks in the eastern and north
ern districts are carrying necessary
lines of paper for. the western and
southern reserve institutions.
One factor in the situation which
has given the greatest anxiety for
some time past has been the foreign
trade outlook. The opening of new
credits for the shipment of staples to
Germany on a large scale. indicates
the coming revival of Continental
business. Foreign demand for raw
materials and food stuffs is stronger.
How soon the shipment of manufac-
tured goods will correspondingly re-
cover remains to be seen, but mean
while there is increasing evidence that
the conditions which have been re-
tarding the restoration of this branch
of busine will shortly be corrected.