The West Virginian. [volume] (Fairmont, W. Va.) 1914-1974, 1921-12-19
SEESA
RIFT IN CLOUDS
Noted Economist Traces
Probable Path of
Recovery

Speaking on general conditions,
Roger Babson says:
IAN associate OF Mr.. Hoover has
made a very interesting suggestion.
He says that in addition TO the
Daily Weather Forecasts we ought
to have Daily Business Forecasts.
II this were accomplished, a busi-
ness man or investor could pick up
his daily paper and see whether
business is going to BE right and
! fair" or cloudy and stormy"
Suppose that such forecasts could
be made as precisely as weather
Orecasts-which are said to aver.
age as high as so per cent. relia
ble-these business prognostioa-
tons would certainly be very pop
!ular feature of the daily press and
would help to avert great many
business troubles and investment
tragedies.
THE suggestion is not as inpos-
sible as 1t seems ut first glance. De-
pressions follow regular paths
/ crossing our business world. Their
record when charted looks very
much like the storm maps OF the
Weather Bureau.
/ start with the industrial cen
tiers of the Northeast, including let
ius say. New England, New York.
New Jersey, and eastern Pennsyl-
vanIa. In other words, take the
three Federal Reserve districts No.
n. No. .. and No. 2. l regard the
ioutloOk for this region as relative
| ly favorable. This was the first
part OF the country to show de
cline in hu2iness; and according
to the law Of action and reaction,
this same section will lead in the
recovery.
The Agricultural! West will fol
loow suit and participate in due
turn in the activity now becoming
apparent in the Northeast. Local
business men, can regard the neigh
boring sections, on the east as a
barometer which now indicates
That fair weather Is on It's way.
when cotton prices picked IN,
the South recovered It's poise. \
complete and instantaneous restora-
ton is not to be expected. Tou
cannot jump out OF well in sin
,gle leap. But ii the business lead
ers OF the South will fix their VI
sion on the germ OF prosperity with
which the New York stock market
has been innoCulated, they Will see
the blessed Infection spread out I'M
til 1t envelopes the whole region
cast OF the Mississippi and south OF
the Ohio.
Turning to the Far West find
the outlook complicated by a pc
culiar circumstance. The Mnuntail
states and the Northwest have suf-
fered beyond a doubt. But III a
broad way California has thus lar
escaped rather lightly. business
on the coast held up for some time
.uf.er It was distinctly dull else
where. Similarly. business may
tend 10 hold stationary on the
Coast, even after an advance is reg
istered in other localities. In 9th
er words. It is quite possible th1,
California's reimbursement may take
the form Of Il bclated rise ratilcI
than actual slump.
"If we interest ourselves in ITEM
.perutures" rs we'll US storm cen
ters, We find reliable thermome.
ter in total purchases, sales during
the past few months indicate the
gradual rIghting OF conditions.
Sales for September md October
Of this year, taking the average OF
the country rs n whole, is approx
matcly 70 per cent. Of the same two
months OF 1920. November showed
n 5 per cent Improvement while tho
total figures have not as yet had =
complete check, our forecasts Of
rs per cent. promises to be accu-
rate. The forecast for this month
indicates that we will enjoy so per