Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1921-11-15
Belief Prevails That Recent
Break Has Run Its Course
and Old High Level viii Be
Passed Soon
BY ESTES nOREMUS

How much longer will the cotton
market continue to feel the effects
of the census bureaus ginning fig
,res of November 9, showing that
Approximately 100000 more bales
had been baled than was accounted
for in the crop estimate based on
the end-September report of the
growing crop? -
That is the big question the trade
is asking now and the answer Is
about as difficult as estimating the
amount of cotton yet to be- ginned.
The disappointing government fig
: ures caused a break of more than
100 points on the first day aud it
was thought by many that the re-
cession had run it's course, but the
next day saw still further break
in New York futures and a cor
responding general drop in spots.
The Armistice day holiday halted
operations twentyfour hours only,
the short Saturday session witness
ing another break that carried val
ues from 200 to $50 points below
those of the day previous to the re-
port.
But In face of the three-day de-
cline, the market is regarded as hav-
ing a strong undertone and cotton
men both hereIand elsewhere still
adhere to the belief that previous
high futures for the staple will not
: be the highest of the season. In
other words, sentiment still is bull
ish, and experts assert a position on
the short side is certain to be dis
astrous. There is a general belief
that the break has run it's course
and brokers are advising purchases
on weak markets, adding that the
bull side looks the best for long
pull.
Mill TaI1ings Large
Cotton men here point to the fact
that the market has about absorbed
the full effect Of the unexpected gin
ming fixtures and do not expect a
much further decline. If any. In
this connection they point to the spot
situation, which has hardened in the
face of the break in futures, and
which will refuse to be stampeded IN
the event there are further reyes
sions. The actual will be WlthdraWn
from the market if values do not
improve. If there is a bear in At
Ihnta he is hard to find.
The mill takings of the past Week.
amounting to $4,000 bales, probably
would have had a bullish effect but
for the fact that the takings of the
week previous were 40l ,O00 pales,.
although the ttakings for the same
bales and for two years ago 100000
bales. Since the first of the season
the mills have taken 100000 bales
against, 1884, 900 TO rthe saT@e date
last year and 3,OS5,000 for the same
date two years ago.
The census bureau, Monday morn
ling, will issue its statement on
American y consumption for the
month of October, and expectations
are that these figures will be large
enough to prove a stimulant to fall
ing values.
It must be borne in mind that
bulls are basing tn eir operations on
a crop of 7,50O,O 900 or 100000 bales
and are not alarmed because end
October ginning figures showed more
cotton actually ginned than was ac-
counted for on the basis of condl-
ton figures. They still insist that
practically all of the crop has been
picked, that ginneries either are
closed. or running part time (some
only two days a week., and that lit
tie more will be added to the last
figures when the crop is in.
Crux of Situation
This opinion is reflected in the sit
uation in Georgia where, with 1885,
O0G bales ginned prior to November
/. the belief is expressed that prac-
tically all of the crop has been pick
ed and that the total figures will
not exceed 500 600 bales which was
the estimate of the cotton oil mill
interests several months ago.
With the crop virtually in, the
trade is turning to distant deliveries
for premium values and to October
contracts In the expectation that
next years acreage again will be
cIIrtailed and the yield still further
emf bv ravages of the boil weevil,
army worth and other pests which
beset the plant this year. Brokers
who are Advising purchases for
long pull, recommend May, July or
October.
Enthusiastically the crux of the sit
uation is the crop next year, which
will virtually stand alone in the
absence of any material carry-over
from this year. This is the view con-
seryative interests are taking ana
accounts for the purchases of Octo-
Der contracts while distant deliv-
cries are being pounced on in the
hope that the potential shortage OF
1922 will have an early effect on
May and july options and carry
values above The 20-cent level again.
The trade believes that the src-
cess the cotton farmer has had at
diversification and better prices for
the staple because of the short crop.
will insure another acreage cut with
the result that the shortage Of this
season will pale into insignificance
when next years crop proves to be
practically all the buver has in sight