The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-08-29

.o'porhtiOu 10 IAchhnRc Elhce, NeW
 NorkO.
 New York, August 2S.-( Spec;alD The outlook seems anomalous and is confusing. It reminds one of the changeable pictures sometimes used 10 advertise a toothsche cure. From one angle face in agony is 10 be seen; from another a smiling coun- tenance is revealed. Commerce Is un- doubtedly improving but finance is depressed, The sequence is unusual Formerly it was reversed.
 The security dealers and bankers have always boa sted that they could see farther ahead than the mer- chants and have been the first to sense recovery in general business. Now the improvement In business Is upon Us but the stock exchange is still discouraged and bankers though they talk bravely, are acting with grave caution If not timidity. Wall street in particular is blue. prob ably because the shores of It's mael- strom are strewn with the wreckage Of the recently rich who had come to think themselves bankers are in this chastened class, for 1t seems that no one was entirely immune 10 the speculative contagion which swept over the world after :he armistice. Ar idea of what it cost it's victims can be had from a compari rison be- tween the high prices of 1920 and current quotations for long list of industrial stocks. Some of them have declined more than s1o0 per share and the total depreciation runs into the billions.
 Chief Sufferers
 But the chief sufferers by this de- cline are those who made paper prof it's during the war and while their grief naturally affects those with whom they associate tho nations S wealth as measured in things rather than money is not reduced by their losses.
 The depression in Wall street may also be partially attributable to the unsettlement abroad upon which l commented last week. Devalera's re- ply to the English proposals seems truculent and defiant, but the state ment that the Dali Eireann Is ready to appoint representatives to nego- tiate on the basis of government by the consent of the governed- is con- strued by some as indicating a will lingness to barley further and as those who are willing to barley gen. orally make peace there may still be some hope of settlement. As bear ing upon Britains o.ner problems it Is worth noting that Lord Miner made a speech in London on August 23 in which he advocated an inpe- rial Parliament and written con stitution for the Empire, while on the very same day the cables brought news of serious uprising in the Mslabar district of British East In- dia. where an "open rebellion" was reported.
 Bankers Disturbed
 In Germany bankers are said to be disturbed by the rapid fall in the purchasing power of the mark at home as well as abroad and the Reichsbank last week reported a sud- den reduction of over 9,0o0, 900 900 marks Tn the outstanding paper cur rency. This is probably due to the collection of taxes in which case the raper money taken in will soon be issued again. The contraction is otherwise inexplicable, though 4it might have been accomplished Iy some unreported issue of govern ment securities through which the currency paid in would have been temporarily retired. In this connec- tion Secretary Hoover's warning to American buyers of German munici- pal securities should be mentioned He points out that many German cities have already issued bonds bay able in marks for sums that would be fantastlcaly large and impossible of repayment if the mark recovered its gold value. From this it is to be inferred that he doubts any such re- covery.
 l have purposely grouped together all the financial depressants that are discernible, bringing them into re- lief that they may be weighed against the much longer list of the weeks encouraging developments
 Gold Reserves
 There is first the statement of the federal reserve system, which shows gain of $1e.00o.0o0 in the gold re- serves and reserve ratio of 66.5 as against S5.S per cent the week previous. On these figures a fur ther reduction in the rediscount rate is generally expected and the money market is. informally easier though relatively high rates are still asked of impecunious borrowers. Then there Is the sensat tional advance In cotton caused by the sensational reports of crop failure plus the fan ciful suggestion Of the American Cotton association that the legisia- lures of the cotton states should prohibit planting cotton altogether in 1922 so that the boil weevil and the boil worm having nothing to feed upon would be finally eradicated.
 The proposal is. of course, inipos- sible as the cure would be worse than the disease but it is "a good enough Morgan untir after the elec- tion," and it may be that cotton win be carried much higher for the pros nectlVa nItIa ha Jo; .<, surplus, is not in excess of the pros pective demand and will be rather insufficient If there is an economic recovery in Europe. The advance is. of course. benefiting the south where It IS thawlng out much frozen credit, But 1t is. however, even more i'm portant as evidencing return of the speculative spirit which, much as 1t may be deplored by some. is always concomitant of the phychological condition that is called prosperity.
 Cotton Goods Strong
 Cotton goods were strong and ac- tive before cotton itself advanced, but they are now distinctly higher and in some lines the autumnai shortage that I predicted is already being felt For instance, the largest manufacturers Of ginghams have found it necessary tc ration out thei- production and are accepting orders for only 90 per cent of the quantities applied for
 Burlaps are also higher and in short supply as the jute crop Is only 90 per cent of normal. woolen goods are likewise firm and most producers have sold their entire product until well into the spring, although the unsold Australian sup. ply of raw wool still hangs over the market for the unmanufactured ar ticle.
 The Coal Age says that there is unmistakable evidence of quick