The New York herald., 1921-03-07


And since $500. 100000 gold marks
of its net imports were raw materials
the fate of both reparations and the
very life OF German industry is domi-
mated by factors over which Germany
has hardly any control, namely, the
world market
World Must Help Cure.
In other words, Germany could
only be quite healthy economic
country If the world were buying its
share of Germany's goods and provid-
ing its share of the materials that
went into them. And all the indus
trial wizardry OF Germany's industry
and finance could not doctor Germany
into sound health unless the world
helped apply the cure.
Nothing can be more apparent than
that the world is not buying German
goods TO this extent or providing Ger
many with its capacity Of raw ma
terials. Then what Is meant by Ger
many's phenomenal recovery? How
far has 1t progressed? What of the
high dividends? Is Germanys state
indebtedness fiction to influence
allied statesmen? Where does the
money originate which pays for the
life Of luxury in German cities?
Germany's iron and steel indus
tries are producing now from 32 to
az per cent. of their capacity, and
the mills last year received from 40
TO As per cent. of the coal they need
ed. In August German industry as
a whole and private consumers re-
ceiyed 50 per cent, In October So. /
per cent. and in November 66.5 per
cent. OF the amount they used in
1913.
Germany had no balance of trade
In 1920 and imported far more than
1t exported. From the United States
1t bought TO the value of $311 .437,-
600 and sold in return $SS,863, 900.
1t Is mere guesswork to estimate Ger
many's total imports and exports.
German statistics before the war
were kept. not on an ad valorem but
on quantity basis. The statistical
department was not maintained in
the interest OF industry and COM
merce, but for administrative pur-
poses. The statute requiring the
keeping of ad valorem foreign trade
statistics goes into effect next month
for the first time.
Confusing Error Made.
At the first Brussels conference the
German representatives reported a
gain I'm German export trade so great
that 1t gave a slight balance of trade
in Germany's favor in later months
Of the year. The figures were prompt
ly studied by German economists.
who found that exports had been cal
culated in the paper marks at their
current value, while imports were
booked at the arithmetically lower
values of the mark of 1918 and 1919.
That is, such materials as cotton and
ores were counted as costing the COM
paratively low prices of two and three
years ago. though bought last year.
while the products made from them
were figured at the high paper mark
prices of 1920.
How so confusing an error came to
be made is hard to say. At that time
hopes in Forthcoming International
credits were high, and the Govern
ment. either purposely or ignorantly.
passed not only these estimates to
the allied economists, but also state
ment of the expected national deficit
about 0.000, 200 marks short of
the truth. The hoax practised by
Germany In that particular hour. II
any. was not TO conceal prosperity
but TO exaggerate 1t.
Raw Materials Imported.
The real balance OF trade against
Germany is now generally accepted as
having been about $4,000 100000
paper marks last year, or $3.50. .000,-
600 at the present exchange. II this
estimate is legitimate. and. If 1t is
true that industry Is receiving only
two-thirds of its fuel, a phenomenal
recovery would be either a miracle
or the result of economic develop
ments never before conjectured.
A test of Germany's Industrial
health to-day can be applied by an
examination Of Germany's raw ma
terial imports, exports and produc-
ton In 1919, and comparing them
with the facts of to-day. In 1913
Germany imported raw materials Eek
elusive of agricultural products) to
the following value. In millions of
gold marks:
Cotton ..........s-.s.~.-s..... 60T