New-York tribune., 1921-12-11
70 the Editor of The Tribune.


Sir: In the widespread discussion
Of Frances unwillingness to reduce her
army have looked in vain for refer
encc to one principle WHICH m ght CON
ceivably retain for France all requisite
provision for safety against German
aggression while giving her the full
moral value of compliance with the
spirit Of arms reduction. 1t is that Of
progressive conditional disarmament.
NJ. BRAND stated that there were
present German government with
peaceful intentions, but feared results
should the imperialistic faction again
gain control. His contention accords
with the general observation that re-
publics are less likely than monarchies
to initiate wars of aggression. Is the
German public really converted to de-
mocracy, or is it awaiting, consciously
or unconsciously, the return Of autoc-
racy? These arc questions that have
vital bearing on the peace of the
world
Such questions cannot be answered
lightly. The change from enthusiastic
devotion to the "all highest" has been
too recent to be altogether convincing,
and certainly France, with her unhealed
wounds, cannot be expected to take
the advent Of a permanently peaceful
German republic at its face value She
must recall that she herself twice over
threw monarchy in her own govern
mcnt, and twice saw it restored before
third attempt resulted in stable
republic. The world can hardly crit
icize France for unwillingness to take
the chance of further aggression from
across the Rhine.
Nevertheless, it is obvious that every
year that passes without the restora-
tion of German monarchy somewhat in
creasas the presumption in favor of the
stability of the republic. This pre-
sumption may still be minor one, but
some day, if the republic still endure,
it will become a probability. From
that time forward, always with the
same "if," the chances will steadily in
crease and may in course of time be-
come moral certainty, as in the case
Of France herself.
The German militaristic and i'm
pcrialistic faction is undoubtedly still
strong and menacing, but it's leaders
are not growing younger, and each year
of inaction must mean an appreciable
loss of power. Meanwhile the public
is having its first experience of even
nominal democracy; perforce it is
learning some OF the lessons Of self
government and acquiring the rudi~
ments of a new form Of consciousness.
The old Germany was a menace to the
world; the new Germany. if there shall
be new Germany, may become ma
tion TO be trusted.
Will there be such a new Germany:
The world is eager to know, but time
alone will tell. Meanwhile precautions
are inevitable.
But what of progressive conditiona
disarmament?
This is question for statesmen, not
for laymen, but something of the prin-
ciple involved may be sensed from the
following crude suggestion:
Suppose that France were to silence
her critics and inspire her friends by
announcing as her definite program an
immediate reduction of 20 per cent in
the size of her armies, another 20 per
cent (of the present numbers) FIVE
years hence, 20 per cent more after
second five years period, and possibly
a fourth 90 per cent at the end of fif-
teen years-always with the proviso
that the German republic we're still ex-
istent in fact and apparently peaceful
in purpose at each of the specified
dates.
The percentages and periods are, of
course, purely tentative and are merely