The Washington herald., 1921-11-26
Prussians Blame Repara-
tiOns and Plot of
Allies.
GAMBLING HAS PART
Activity of Printing Presses
Only One of Many
Causes.
By ARTHUR w. KIDDY.

and written at the present time
with regard to the great fall in the
value of the mark, but l venture
10 affirm that one is not very much
the wiser either as to the precise
causes responsible for the unprec-
ledented depreciation or as to the
hnal outcome of this extraordinary
situation Moreover, / must hast
en- to add that / have not the slight
est hope in this brief article of
making any really important con-
tribution to q clearer comprehen-
sion Of the situation. All that 1
can do is to give you London's
point Of view with regard to the
matter, and by London's point of
view 1 do not mean political Lon
don, but financial London, though.
OF course, it is quite possible that
out Views may be affected to some
extent by political considerations.
just as, undoubtedly in France the
political aspect OF the matter looms
very large indeed.
In the first place. there arises
the obvious question as to whether
the great fall in the mark in re-
cent months is to be connected
mainly, II not entirely. with the
reparation payments. Germany de-
clares that the reparation payments
are almost the sole cause. while
those with political bias in the OPP
pOsite direction affirm that the
main cause is to be found in the
watering OF German currency by
the active operation of the govern
ment printing press. Neither of
these views can be entirely correct.
scent Propaganda.
a somewhat able pamphlet. but
obviously of the propaganda order
has just been written by two Ger
man financial and currency experts.
demonstrating that the deprecia-
ton in the mark Is practically en-
tirely due to the reparation pay
ments and the determination of the
allies to ruin Germany, but mas
much as the writers find much
comfort In the thought that the
effect OF the allies policy will only
he to unite the whole of Germany
against these reparation demands. g
the political animus as distinct
from scientific diagnosis Of the
position Is quite evident, especially
as these same writer's give such
SAINT heed to a consideration of
the other factors responsible for
the fall in the mark-namely. CO.
lossal expansion in the German
,ptc circulation, both during and
since the war.
on the other hand. there Is per-
haps even less to be said for those
who endeavor to demonstrate that
the reparation payments have COM
paratively little effect upon the
slump in the mark. Such an asser-
ton is absurd on the face Of it. 1t
hae n
war debts, including our own huge
obligation Ito the United States.
may not he exertIng any immediate
effect upon the various exchanges
concerned. but that Is because no
payments are being effected at the
moment either Of principal or inter
est Assuming for the moment that
even in the case of the strongest
debtor country, namely, Great Bril-
tain, we were Immediately to COM
mence making annual payments
stipulated for I'm dollars on the
scale that Germany is now making
to the allies. the effect on sterling
would Of course be very great.
though il is only fair to adobe
cause the same consideration ap-
plies to Germany-that while the
struggle would he great at the be-
set in motion here in the direction
OF lower wages. harder work. etc.
and these would gradually tend to
correct even the exchange position.
Therefore there can be no doubt
that in considering the great fall
in the mark a very prominent posi-
ton must he given to the effect of
the German reparation payments.
Of which he IL noted in passing,
the next important installment con-
sists Of about f25 200. 900. paya ble
next January.
Moro Than One Influence.
Financial London. however, be
lieves that it is a case of more
than one influence affecting the
market at the present time The
rcparation payments and the oper-
atioHs of the German government
printing press react one upon the
other. each tending to agEravate
the position, while further factor
which enters into the problem is
the enormous extent OF the Camb-
linz transactions in the mark.
When the fall first commenced,
or at all events. when it had gone
10 moderate lengths. speculative
operations for the rise by those
who believed that the treaty Of
peace and the final settlement
would bring a revival i'm German
prosperity and great stimulus to
her exports. proved to be hopeless
" premature Consequently. the
closing Of. or the attempt to close.
these operations. combined later on
with huge bear" operations on the
part Of those recognizing the force
nG the printing press and repara-
tion factors already referred to.
have all tended to accelerate and
emphasize the debacle in the mark
In fact the gambling aspect of the
matter might he summarized by
saving that there are many who
believe that. quite apart from
whether Germany becomes bank
rIpt or not. the speculative trans
c~tiOns referred to must end in
some rather severe financial crisis
I'm some Of the European countries
last rs thew have already resulted
f~ serious financial losses in many
EI-cctiors.