The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-08-30
COLD WINTER DUE


 Washington, August 2s.--(specialD That next winter will be d cold one is the indication of weather data com piled by Dr. J. r. Brooks, formerly here, and now associate professor of meteofology and clinstology at Clark university.
 An analysis of the weather records of over century indicates that we are now experiencing series of all ternations of severe and warm win ters. Last fall, on the basis of his investigations, pr. Brooks said that last winter would be warm. It was. And now he says that 1t is not unrea- sonable to expect that next winter will be g cold one and that the win- ter of 1s22-23 will be q warm one.
 The weather seems to be repeating itself. The present series of sharply alternating winters began in 1sl7-ls, with the cold weather of that year. The winter of IS years before, 1872 7s, inaugursted series of winters that were severe, warm, severe, warm, etc, until 1ss2-sS And 11s years ago indications from incompletely kept records are that the winter of 1s04-5 began similar series of alternations
 These two previous remarkable series of alternating cold and warm winters and the present one had al most identical preliminaries, Dr. Brooks has found. All three series were preceded by a few moderately mild winters, an ordinary or moder- ately cold winter, and then a severe winter. which opened the swings up and down in the winter tempsraturs. The first of the moderate winters of the present series was 1sl3-1A.
 If the present sursinS of hot and cold winters is following the same pattern of the alterations of the seventies and tho eighties, it is sx- pscted that they will end with a se- we're winter in ls27-2s.
 Dr. Brooks findings are based on weather records from New Bedford, Mass, New York. N. r.. Washington, D. C, Cincinnati. O., and Chicago for the present series and the alterna- tions of 45 years ago. The data of the series at the beginning of the century were obtained from records made at Cincinnati and at New Haven. Conn.
 They seem to hold for the whole world. however. as he has noted that when large changes between the characters of successive winters oc- 4 x l. \ ~ ones are usually occurring on the separated ax Paris and Washington show this connection.
 Such sequences of alterna ting aeidsr and warmer winters were ey- identity the result of an osciilatory movement of the north Atlantic and North American grand centers of ac- tion of the atmosphere" Dr. Brooks says.
 That the centcrs of action of the atmosphere or the points of hish and low pressure should be intensively' Vtpdied from winter to winter to allow successful forecasts of the characters of winters is urged by Dr. Brooks.
 In discussing tho prsdicticRA of the familiar nom -scitntifics wAAther prophets. who periodically make leng range forecasts of the weather of the following winter. Dr. Br6eks points out that American and European in- vestisators seem to have established the fact that in ordip4ry times sea- son appreciably above or below nor maj ih temperature b likely tc be followed by one to three or more seq sons having ssmrerature departures In the same direction.
 Thus is may be that forecasters' @F x.-f1A fN4 < some biological signs in autumn may justly claim more than chance suc- cess, though for reasons different from those commonly advanced" he declares Five out of the seven winter predictions which cams to me last fall from newspapers east of the Mississippi river were to the effect that last winter would be mild. ac- cording to indications afforded by birds, woyws. sauirrels. muskrats. frsFs etc"