Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1921-10-29
6, 427,7O0 BALES
4. C. A. FORECAST

BIRMINGHAM, Ala, Oct. Is
! The American Cotton association
| Thursday announced forecast OF
I the United States in 1921 to be
6,427,700 bales
This estimate was contained In
the address of J. Skottowe Wanna
maker, president, delivered at the
opening session of the annual con-
vention here.
! Mr.. Wannamaker also presented
! several estimates bf the supplies of
| raw cotton in this country and a
forecast of consumption by the mills
of the world for the cotton season,
beginning August /, 1921, and end
| ing July 81, 1922.
! The convention of the association
! opened here today for a three-day
| session. y.
| Questions of timely interest to the
| grower, manufacturer, banker and
merchant will be discussed. Much
time will be devoted, according to
the conventions officers, to a con-
sideration of price, marketing, the
boil weevil and acreage curtailment.
Consumption
United States stocks of tenderable
carry-over was estimated by Mr..
Wannamaker as of August /, 1921,
at 5,113,4 91 bales. The estimated
consumption, American and Cana
dian, to August i, 1922, was placed
at 100000 bales, while the estimat-
ed demand for exports to the same
date was given as, 100000, making
a totA estimated consumption of 49,
O00, 900, or a deficiency in supplies
of Assoc bales.
"It is unanimously agreed by econ
omists," Mr.. Wannamaker continu-
ed, that it is necessary to have on
Vhand at the close of the cotton year
on July 81, at least 100000 bales
of American cotton to supply the
needs until the cotton from the
growing crop can reach the spindles,
so that the apparent shortage will
be- more marked than it appears
| from figures given.
1.-The cotton mill consumption in
| the United States for the month of
| September just passed, amounted to
485, 900 bales, or at the rate of 81
| S29, 600 bales a year. The exports
! for September were at the rate OF
| 6,276,000 bales per annum, making
a total domestic consumption and
exports exceeding 12,000,000 bales.
| Our forecast of consumption for the
| twelve months ending July 81, 1922,
based upon the above facts, is, there
fore, conservative, as consumption
is increasing instead Of diminishing.
Exports
AS another evidence of this fact,
| the exports of American cotton for
IN natnnot~ I.
| ed to 244 900 bales, or at the rate
Of over 1860, 900 bales per annum
| for exports alone. If this rate of
exports should continue for six and
a half months, the entire produ 5tSon
of 1921 would be shipped abroad to
foreign spinners. leaving only the
stocks brought over from the 1920
crop to supply our domestic mills.
1.-The world production Of cotton
in 1921, at present, is estimated to
be under II 100000 bales, against
normal production Of 20,000,000
bales. The American and Egyptian
crops will not exceed so per cent OF
the 1920 production. This tremen-
dous shortage cannot be supplied by
the estimated carry-over of cotton
throughout the world. Either there
must be an enforced restriction in
spindle operation during the next
ten months, or the supplies of spin
nable cotton will be practically ex-
hausted by July 81, 1922.
1.-THE 1921 cotton crop, based upon
present estimates, indicates the
shortest yield of any crop in thirty
five years. This is due to reduc-
ton of practically 80 per cent in the
cotton acreage planted this year as
compared with the 1920 acreage; the
non-use of high-grade commercial
fertilizers; the widespread destruc-
ton by the cotton boil weevil, and
adverse climatic conditions in all
sections of the cotton belt