The Washington herald., 1921-12-28
PAST FEW MONTHS
HAS SEEN GRADUAL
RETURN TO NORMAL
Seasonal Influence Only
Partly Cause, Says Guar
anty Trust.
TEXTILES LEAD GAIN
Iron and Steel Lines Still 46
Per Cent Below Pre-
War Rate.

The most Gratifying aspect of the
years Industrial events, according
to the Guaranty Trust Company of
New York, is the upturn during the
last few months in the general VOL
ume. OF production in the country,
which about midsummer had
reached its lowest point since 1914.
Although some of the increase Is
clearly due to seasonal influences,
there has been, nevertheless, since
July. an upturn so pronounced that
It must represent fundamental i'm
provement.
This upturn is most marked in
the textile industry and less so in
the iron and steel industry. Iron
and steel production declined from
a high in March. 1920, of 80 per
cent above the estimated normal,
after allowance for seasonal in-flu-
ence and longtime trend. to So
per cent below normal In July. 1921,
whence it has since advanced to
point only 46 per cent below nor
NAL production in November.
Textiles Near Normal.
Textile production declined from
its highest point, in January, 1920.
"a per cent above the estimated
normal. to its lowest, Al per cent
below normal in December of the
same year From this point the in
crease was steady throughout nine
months of 1921. with the exception
of a slight setback in July. In
September the production of tex
tiles was IL per cent above normal,
which is the highest record since
March. 1920.
The large consumption of cotton.
required by the increased activity
of the textile industry, is partlcu-
larly encouraging in view of its in
fuence upon an important section
of the country and the govern
ment's revised estimate of this
years cotton crop OF 100000 bales,
exclusive Of linters, or approx
mately 100 900 bales more than
was Indicated by the preliminary
reports made two months previous
". Cotton consumption has in
creased each month since August.
when it was 41O.120 bales. to a total
of 526.61O bales in November This
compares well with the consump-
ton Of only 332.O57 bales last No
vember and a monthly average con-
sumption for the crop year. ended
July 81. 1920. of 563,517 bales.
Other Lines Gaining.
Production in many other lines Of
manufacturing has shown pro-
nouned increase over the low porn,s
of the year Especially is this true
of manufactures of paper. lumber.
tobacco leather and foodstuffs-
meat. flour, sugar. etc. These in
creases in volume of production not
merely seasonal advances but more
substantial gains Indicating the
fact that readjustment OF industry.
lower prices and costs Of operation
are producing the desired results.
An increase of production of
equal magnitude in more normal
times might mark the actual res
toration of prosperity but, with to-
tai production at so low a level as
characterized the midsummer months
of 1921 such Improvement as has
taken place represents at best only
the alienation of adverse condi-
lions. Caution should still be OBJ
served. for the manufacturer may
easily overestimate the consumpt-
I've capacity of the public. which
remains considerably limited by
the curtailed buying power OF large
classes of the community.