Evening star., 1921-02-27
BY SHELDON s. CLINE.

7 S the great industrial structure
which America is erecting In
danger of topping over because
there is not beneath it the foun-
dation of an adequate and assured
food supply?
Must the cost Of living mount
higher and ever higher because
farm production is diminishing
while the population of cities and
industrial centers constantly in
creases?
Is the time approaching when
the United States must depend
upon overseas imports Of staple
foodstuffs, and. therefore. be at the
possible mercy of an enemy in
war?
Is it possible. in short. that this
country may know that fear of
famine which always has Europe
in it's grip, and which was one or
the chief underlying causes of the
greatest of all wars?
These questions today are press
ing for an answer. That answer
must be an affirmative one If the
present trend of American agri-
culture is unchecked. How to
make the answer negative calls
for the wisest craftsmanship and
the best thought and cooperative
effort Of economists and scientists
and practical men of affairs.
1t is about the biggest and most
vital problem in America today.
And it is not the problem of the
farmer, as the unthinking are
wont lightly to assume. 1t is the
problem of the cities. Of the cap
tains of industry and of industrial q.
workers. They are the ones who
have the most at stake.
There lately have been heard
expressions Of fear that even the
present year might see a shortage
of foodstuffs. but an analysis OF
conditions discloses that this fear
is not well founded.
American farmers will not grow
as large crops this year as they
grew in 1920, but their paintings
will be sufficient to avert any dan
ger Of a serious food shortage.
This is the February opinion OF
Edwin T. Meredith. Secretary of
Agriculture, and is concurred in
by DR.. E. D. Ball. the assistant
secretary: by Leon NJ. Estabrook.
chief of the bureau Of crop esti-
mates: by DR.. H. c. Taylor. chief
of the Office of farm management.
and by other experts who keep
their fingers on the pulse of agri-
cultural conditions.
Circumstances. from which he
cannot escape, will cause the farm
er to grow these necessary crops
this year, they hold, despite his
present encouragement and dis
content; but they do not believe
he will continue to grow them un-
less great fundamental changes are
brought about in the basic condi-
tions of agricultural production
and distribution.
THE United States must, adopt
an intelligent and consistent agri-
cultural policy" Secretary Mere
dith said to the writer. "If 1t does
not, the day is not distant when
we may have to depend on overseas
imports of staple foodstuffs to sus-
tain our industrial population. And
that day, if it is permitted to ar
rive, will be an evil one in our
history"
Confidence that adequate, though
diminished, crops will be grown
this year is due to a. number Of
circumstances. Chief Of these is
the fact that farm is going
concern, which has but single
turnover in year. 1t cannot be
stopped and started from day to day
or week to week, to meet varying
market conditions. The farmer can
not wait until assured Of a profit,
or even of market, before he
plows and plants. He is compelled
to adopt program for the year
and then to carry it through it's
seasonable stages. gambling both
against the weather in the grow
ing of his crops and against mar
keting conditions after harvest.
His oD1y alternative to an annual
program is to suspend all opera
tions and permit his fields to lie
fallow, and that would spell ruin
to the average farmer. Therefore,
he will plow and plant this year as
in other years; but he will reduce
his acreage. will employ as little
labor as possible. will keep his
investment in fertilizers down to
the minimum and purchase only
necessary for the most economical
handling of his plant. 49,
The greatest reduction in pro-
duction, probably, will result from
the disinclination of the tenant
farmer to carry on" He has
less at stake than the man who
owns his acres. and is freer to
chuck the game. The number of
tenants who quit the farms this
year will be influenced by the ex-
tent OF industrial revival between
now and planting time. II the re-
vival is sufficient to absorb in