New-York tribune., 1921-11-21
Will Relinquish Shantung
and Siberia in Return for
Supremacy Elsewhere
in China, Is Forecast
Major Problems
OF Farley Ended
Arms Limit Is Considered
Certain; 4; Breach Between
France and Britain Near
By Frank II. Simonda

WASHINGTON, Nov. 2o.-The con.
terence of Washington is practically
over All that remains to be done is
minor, and, despite present superficial
quarrels and chickering's, the results
could be written to-day. These results
will be:
The limitation of naval construc-
ton, plus measurably scrapping che
existing units.
The postponement, and not impos-
sibly the prevention, of an American
Japanese war;
The acceptance on the part Of each
country of set of abstract princi-
pies in the Far East without any
form OF guaranty for their applica-
ton.
In some way, not yet quite clear.
the elimination Of the Anelo-Jana-
nese alliance.
The price of the first achievement is
the surrender by the United States OF
the power placed in its hands by the
last war to become the supreme nava7
country of the world.
Japan Gains in Far East
The price of the second result will
be the recognition of the special
rights and interests of Japan in all OF
the Far East, but particularly in Man
churla, such recognition duly testified
to by the surrender on the part of
Great Britain and Of the United States
of that. naval power which would per
NIT successful challenge
The price which the United States
will receive in return for the accept
ance of the third point will be a
Japanese agreement to retire from
Shantung and from Siberia.
The disappearance of the Anglo
Japanese alliance will be the compen-
satlon that Mr.. Hughes will receive
TOR not pressing the Far Eastern ques-
tlon as it had been expected it would
be pressed in the beginning.
These results will be regarded in the
United States as great victory for
Mr.. Hughes and for American dipJo-
macy.
On the continent of Europe the
Washington conference has already
been hShed as victory for British
diplomacy, even more complete and far
reaching than that of the Paris con-
ference.
In Great Britain there will be a
tendency to depreciate British achieve.
ment and regret that no great curb
has been placed on Japan, no serious
effort made to reduce French arms
and, finally, no closer association be-
tween the United States and Great
Britain actually arranged. Neverthe-
less, the British people will rejoice in
the escape from naval competition
with the United States, which they
could not afford, or from a voluntary
surrender of sea supremacy, to which
they could not reconcile themselves.
Not improbably the Washington con-
ference will be instantly attacked by
many so-caled ''liberals" the world
over as offering no relief for existing
Affections Of the world and represent-
ing no forward step toward interna-
tlonal association or toward the League
Of Nations.
First Step in Enduring Peace
On the other hand, there will be a
general disposition in this country and
in England to accept Mr. Hughes S
estimate and regard the Washington
conference as a first step in the direc-
Mr.. Hughes's conception that the way
to begin was to begin and that the
limitation of naval armaments was the
one specific and definite thing which
could be done has prevailed and has
made the conference what it has been
and the ultimate success or failure
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