The Birmingham age-herald., 1921-09-05
DY THEODORE K. PRICE

l
 Place, New Yor).
 1 New York, September A. (Special) ) The outstanding feature of the week
 Is mild revival of speculative con- tdence and even the conservatives who decry speculation are a Httie more cheerful because people are be-
 coming normally hopeful again ! The speculative activity has thus | far been confined to the cotton mar ket, but there are signs that it is i spreading, for prices have stopped
 declining, the bears have been try | ing to cover and people everywhere
 are beginning to ask What shall | l buy" instead of advising each other
 to sell.
 It is true that in cotton the ad-
 vance of or cents pound, record
 ed during the week, is due to a re- ported crop disaster that is without
 precedent but it Is unlikely that the | trade demand would have lifted | prices so sensationally if the specu
 lative spirit had not been latent and | inflammable. In just what quarter
 it will next manifest itself no one 1 can say. It may be in grain, coffee,
 sugar or securities. In none of these
 markets is the position more bearish
 or the outlook for an advance less ] encouraging than was the case in cot l ton few months ago.
 Autumn Trade
 l Meantime l observe with some sat
 isfaction that nearly every one is
 coming L share my persistent op-
 timism ii regard to the autumn trade. In a published advertisement
 the nationally known contractors, J. G. White & Co. say that "a trade re- vival is indicated by reports re- ceived from practically all the prin- cipal industrial centers."
 A letter from Philadelphia in the New York Evening Post says, For
 the first time this year consumption
 exceeds production" The Credit Guide says, For the fifth consecu- tive week business shows improve ment and greater activity on the part of the retailer" A St Louis bank, after an exhaustive canvass of the middle west by questionnaire re- ports there Is no ground for pessim- ism and as yet none for excessive optimisn..
 Otto H. Kahn, just back from Eu-
 rope, is quoted as saying that we shall soon find ourselves within sight of prosperity" and the Credit Clear ing House Is statistically cheerful Tn reporting that the money value or the wholesale trade for the week
 ending August 26 was only 2.2 per cent under last year, while the per centage of decline in prices is from 25 to 35 per cent.
 There are many other straws which show that the stream of busi-
 ness is flowing with increasing
 force Among them is better de- mand for coal Another is con tinued improvement in the inquiry for steel and iron. A third IS an advance in copper to 12 cents
 pound, and fourth is to be found Tn
 report of the geological survey which states that the shipments or Portland cement for the first seven
 months of 1921 are within per cent of last years record. The federai reserve banks and board are almost alone in doubting the imminence or a trade revival but their dublousness is to some extent offset by the fig
 ures of the department store trade for July in the 12 reserve districts. Decline in Retail Sales Values There figures show an average decline of but 15.1 per cent in the money value of retail sales through out the country. Commenting on them
 the New York Journal of Commerce
 says, Prices have beyond doubt fal- len as much, and 1t is therefore req sonable to infer that the volume Of goods moving over the counters IS
 as great if not greater than last year" From this it is argued with truth that the current assertions about the number of unemployed ana the consequent impairment Of the
 country's purchasing power are gross
 exaggerations.
 As to the alleged unemployment of which so much Is heard and so little is seen, at least in and around New York, it is to be noted that Presi- dent Harding has called confer ence to consider it, to be held Tn Washington in September. It IS not clear what such a conference can ac-
 complish unless it recomnenos tnat
 employment be provided at pupiic
 expense upon public works as is al ready being done in Racine, is.' and Detroit, but President Hardine is, nevertheless, to be commenueu
 for hls promptitude in action anu
 the many efforts he has maoe anu
 Is making to keep industry on the
 even keel of sustained activity. IT Congress would but cooperate wilh
 him more heartily by making the
 promised readjustment in taxes most
 of the uncertainty by which business is restrained would disappear.
 smoot Gives Notice
 Senator Shoot has gwen notice that he will introduce a substitute revenue bill as son as Congress re- convenes It seens to be great inn
 provement on the House bill now pending. Briefly. it repeals the pres ent law, but re-enacts the existing inheritance and tobacco taxes ana
 provides for an income tax with sur taxes. not in excess of 32 per cent, 10 per cent tax on the net profits or corporations and a per cent manu- facturers' tax to be imposed only on
 manufactured articles when they are first sold so that 1t cannot be passed on by the jobber or retailer. The very simplicity of the proposal makes | it attractive and 1t is to be hoped II will receive serious consideration. The domestic news relating to business is otherwise unimportant. | The stock market has been quiescent and the bond market firm. loan
 of 25,S00.00o to the republic Of Bra : gil on S.15 per cent basis and ah- l other for s7b00.0 000 to Uruguay of- ] fered to yield S.20 per cent. have been ! W ell taken. The readiness with wh .ch 1 these and other foreign loans have i been placed seems to indicate broadening demand for foreign se- curities in the United states.
 i Railroad Earnings Improve Railroad earnings and car loadinSs
 continue to improve. Preliminary l figures for July indicate that the net
 revenue for that month will approx | innate sI5.00O,00 This will almost ' equal the average of the three years
 ending June 30 1917. which was the 1 most prosperous period Of American railroad history This is the mere l remarkable because the high freight rates are diverting much transcon-