Evening star., 1921-02-27

anu HidheS us Dlu LOT duullloldi
workers, there will be a flocking
to the cities which will leave
thousands of farms without ten
ants to cultivate them. 1t also
would take from farm owners the
supply of labor now available to
them, and which is reasonably ade
quate. and would probably result
in an increased wage scale for
those who remained.
X X X X
Only when the spring plowing
has been done will it be possible
to estimate the outlook for wheat
and other bread grains. Last fall
40,605,O00 acres were sown to win
ter wheat, which is less than a
3 per cent reduction from the
acreage for the last ten years.
But this fact gives no indica-
tion at all as to what the farmer
is likely to do as to other crops.
Practically all this acreage was
planted before the break in wheat
had every reason to expect a con-
tinuance of relatively high prices.
Contrary to widespread belief.
there will be no great carryover
from last years wheat crop. 1t
will be little. if any. larger than
the average of previous years.
Since the break in price Europe
has been buying literally and ex-
ports are rapidly draining the sur
plus out of elevators and from
farms. This is circumstance.
calculated to encourage spring
planting, but unless there is an
early and substantial upward price
trend spring wheat acreage will,
in all probability, be considerably
reduced. The best opinion of men
competent to judge is that with
a winter wheat acreage above the
average, the spring planting will
be sufficient to assure adequate
breadstuff for the American people,
. but that unless the season is very
favorable, there is likely to be lit
tie. II any. exportable surplus of
wheat. They are unwilling to
prophesy what will happen an
other year If the price stays so low
that the growers of winter wheat
are led to curtail their acreage
next fall.
Potato growers were hard hit and
there is certain to be curtailrnent of
the potato acreage and less fertilizer
will be used, which will operate
to reduce the yield per acre. But
farmers in the great potato areas
are not so equipped. that they can
switch their programs easily. They
will grow potatoes for the cities. but
prices are likely to be higher
That there will be a big reduction
in tho corn crop goes almost with
out saying. Last year the American
farmer planted 104.601,O00 acres to
corn and unusually favorable weather
gave him the high yield of more than
thirty bushels to the acre, resulting in
a harvest Of 3.232.367,0OO bushels.
He had averaged $1.35 a bushel for
his crop Of the year before and the
corn farmer saw visions of unpre-.
cedented wealth. Then came the
break in prices. Corn went down and
down until. in December. it touched
81 cents a bushel. February finds
tho price less than 65 cents. This
represents a loss from expected re-
turns Of about two and a half billion
dollars, and though he grew half a
billion bushels more than he did the
year before his actual cash return
was more than a billion and a half
dollars less.
Nor is this the whole of the corn
farmers trouble. Ordinarily when
there is a bumper crop Of corn the
grower feels the surplus on his own
farm and markets it to advantage in
the form of live stock or live stock
products. But this year there are ten
million fewer animals on farms than
there were a year ago. reducing to
that extent the farmers chances of
saving something from the wreck of
his hopes in corn. Incidentally. it is
a situation which means less meat
this year and next, at least. and un-
doubtedly higher prices.
x x X X
lnll
numbers is the estimate Of what
the American farmer has lost as a
result of the slump in prices of
farm products. He has not lost the
whole of that sum in cash or tan
gible property, of course. but he is
five billion dollars poorer than he
would have been if the slump
hadn't occurred. Even the loss of
prospective gain disgruntles a man
almost as much as does loss of ac-
tual cash. While part of the slump
may have been absorbed in what
might be termed paper profits it
is a fact that thousands Of farmers
nwho paid the prevailing prices for
ldDoF, leTllllLeT, eQuipiHeHe, etC.,
find themselves unable to market
the product of their years labor at
anything like what it cost them,
with the result that large por-
tion, in many cases all, Of their
capital accumulated in previous
years has been lost.
But the farmers grievance, pos
sibly, is not so much because he
had to take so large a loss as it is
that corresponding losses were not