Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1920-08-05
OUTLOOK ON THE SENATE
FAvORS THE REPUBLICANS
Study Of the Doubtful States Indi.
Gates Now That the Democrats
viii Lose Seats In That Body

VIII Lose Seats In That Body
I TT WILL be well for the voters Of
l. both parties to remember az the
! presidential campaign progresses that
neither the Democrats nor the Rcpub.
licans, acting alone, can ratify the
| treaty.
Neither party will have the neces-
sary two thirds majority in tho Senate.
II the Democrats keep the senator's
they already have and replace. the Re
publicans in six states-thc most en-
thusastic claimcr docs not say they can
win more than six seats from the Re
publicans--they will have only fifty
three votes. This Is eleven less than
two thirds. In the event Of a Demo
cratic victory It will be necessary to
persuade eleven Republicans to agree
with the Democratic ratification pro-
gram.
The Republican Chalmers are insisting
that they will gain seven senators from
! the Democrats while retaining all tho
present Republican representation Of
forty nine. II the events Justify the
claim the Republicans. with fifty six
: N'''N' VIII sum Ih'h tlkll VI tHOukU 10
ratify. They must persuade that num-
ber of Democratic senators to agree
with their program. They won the sup
port Of twenty one Democrats for the
Lodge reservations. It should not be
difficult to win a third as many for
modified reservations after next March.
when the influence Of Mr.. Wilson has
ceased to be potent.
While the treaty cannot be ratified
without an understanding between the
Republicans and the Democrats. It is
important that the Republican majority
be increased in order to enable the
Senate to carry out the party policies
in conjunction with Republican
House of Representatives and a Re
publican President.
Whether the Republicans will hold
what they have and gain seven more
seats is uncertain today, but it is
morally certain that they will increase
their majority. The chalmers are in
sisting that the Democrats will lose
their senator's from Arizona, California,
Colorado. Idaho, Kentucky. Maryland
and South Dakota. The Democrats are
admitting the loss of South Dakota, but
they deny that they will lose the other
states.
The situation in Arizona is doubtful.
Senator Smith expects to be re elected.
but his best friends admit that his ma
jority will be reduced.
In California, Senator Phelan will be
opposed by a vigorous Republican. The
nomination has not yet been made, but
the prospects are good for the selection
Of n man friendly to Senator johnson
who will be backed by the Johnson ma
chine. This ought to mean his election
by a good majority.
Senator Thomas, of Colorado. wishes
to retire. Even the Democrats are fear
ful Of defeat if any one except Thomas
is the candidate. He is popular. but
he is an old man who wants rest.
Even should he be renominated. the
Republicans will have a good chance of
winning If they name against him an
alert and active man who forces the
fighting.
In Idaho. Borah's influence is said to
be strong enough to pull through any
good Republican against Senator Nu-
gent, whose popularity has disappeared
1t Is conceded that unless Cox comes
out definitely for the vets in his speech
of acceptance Kentucky will go Repub-
lican and the candidate for the Senate
will carry the state along with Hard
ing.
The Cox strength is also needed in
Maryland to re-ClcCt Senator J. W
Smith against q. r. Weller, who is
said to be one Of the ablest officials the
state has ever had.
Arizona is the only one of the seven
states in which the Republicans expect
to make gains where the prospects are
not good.
The Democrats, however, are insist
ing that the Republicans will lose In
diana. Missouri, New York, Ohio. Utah
and Wisconsin. But it is as certain as
anything can be in politics that Scna-
tor Smoot will be re elected in Utah.
If Indiana prefers Tom Taggart to
Senator Watson it has fallen lower than
the rest of the country thought possible.
The successor of Senator Harding. Of
Ohio. is much more likely to be n Re
publican than Democrat, for the
reason that Ohio is normally Rrpub-
iran on national issues. Harding is
stronger with the voters than Cox. In
the last year when they were both can
didatcs for Office Harding pollcd many
| thousand more votes than Cox. He is
confidently expected to repeat the
achievement this year and to carry the
whole Republican ticket with him.
But of course the Democrats have to
claim Ohio or they would be admitting
that their presidential candidate could
not carry his own state.
1t may BE- admitted that New York
is doubtful but it is certain that the
prominence Of Murphy and Tammany
, Hall in San Francisco and the control
| Of the whole state machine by the Tam
many leader constitute a heavy burden
| for the Democratic party. Murphy can
poll the votes of his followers in New
York city. but 1t will need an immense
majority there to offset the big Repub
lican majority which the rest of the
state will poll AZ a protest against dom p
ination by the Tammany Tiger.
Missouri is safely Republican. Oh
servers in that state familiar with the
sentiment of the people have said within
few months that it will be years be e
fore Missouri will go Democratic again