The Richmond palladium and sun-telegram. [volume] (Richmond, Ind.) 1907-1939, 1920-06-29
WILL LEAD
ON 1ST BALLOT, IS
BLYTHE'S PREDICTION
BY SAM r. BLYTHE
(CopyriEht, 1920, by the Central Press
AnaoctatiOn1


Association)
SAN FRANCISCO, June 29.-Con-
siderable order has come out OF the
convention chaos in the past "a hours.
Things have shaken down somewhat
and fairly stable program has been
outlined
1t is not yet time to say that a
presidential candidate Is in sight, but
it Is true that a number Of presiden-
t1al candidates are out Of sight The
entire political strategy OF the men
who have any claim to the definition
OF strategists, not more than 10 in
number. Is to hold the convention
steady at the beginning Of the ballot
ing. with votes impartially distributed
and no man in a commanding place,
and with no idea Of allowing any man
to obtain a commanding lead for a
space. However, the combined votes
ca the leaders Will total about the re-
quired two-thirds necessary for a nom.
inauon, II they can be used collective
ly for that purpose, which is not yet
worked out.
Within this total Of three leading
candidates is a block of votes bound
together rather rigidly and pledged to
operate collectively at the proper time.
This block of votes contains the
strength of several of the larger
states. 1t is of considerable proportion
1t is with this block, held together
by the men who are planning to DOM
mate the convention and nominate the
man best suited to the honor, accord
ing to their ideas. that the final rush
will be made whenever the decision is
reached as to the candidate.
Palmer To Lead On First
According to tho most expectations
based on careful canvasses and sur.
veys, the combining of all available
information and the most conservative
checking, the three leading candidates
will line up on the first ballot as fol-
lows: Cox, ITS; McAdoo. 250; Pal.
mer, 300.
Those are the figures of the insid.
ers and represent the export estimates
Of the strength Of these leaders at
that time. There may be a few
changes. but these totals are claimed
as approximately corSect for the first
ballot at the time Of writing.
There are 1888 delegates in the con
vention at the outside 1t depends on
the committee of credentials whether
this total Is reduced to 1854, but that
is the minimum. Two-thirds are re-
quired to nominate, and two thirds OF
loss Is 1876 The total of the vote
Of the three leaders is 1875.
Hence, with this interior block work
ing under orders, even if some Of these
725 votes should seek strange moods,
the block vote that is sewed up in
combination, and will continue to be
sewed up is enough to prevent any
candidate other than the one decided
on from getting the necessary two
thirds, because of this 725 as sched.
uled for the three leading candidates
on the first ballot.
Have to Find Proper Man.
The preliminary safeguard having
been established, the problem of the
managers of the block is to find the
suitable candidates, and that is now
subject to discussion and will not be
decided finally for a time. There is
no hurry, for two reasons:
The rst reason is that sentiment
among either delegates or managers
has not crystalized as yet and the
second is that no word has yet come
from the white house. 1t is recog.
nized that even in the contingency
that the convention is of a temper
not to allow the president to name
the candidate, it is the fact that the
president can prevent the nomination
of man not desired by him. His veto
Is absolute if he cares to use 1t.
The situation that the strategists
must face is a twe-sided one. 1t may
happen that neither of the three lead
ers, Palmer, McAdoo or Cox. will be
desirable, nor show enough strength
to secure a two-thirds preference, or
that one or the other Of them will
prove of right proportions. Then
the strategists must go to few men
or the one man, or decide whether
to put other strong one Of the three
who starts in the lead. The other side
of the situation is thus:
White House May Determine.
If none of the three is the man. as
events determine, then a new man.
either from the ruck of trailers. or
from the outside. must be conidered.
A hint from Washington as to the
identity of the man the white house
prefers, and in that case the man
will become, automatically chief
contender and subject for earnest con-
sideration.
Matters are not far enough along to
mention names, for every considera-
IlOH Is lculdliNC 40 ySS, boS "As&S -
outlined here is the foundation for
what will happen later.
A great deal of politics have been
played by men who know how to play
politics, while the outside clamor has
seen that the convention Is leaderless
and muddling along to some haphaz-
ard sort Of result.
A great deal more politics is to be
played. In "a or Sc, not more than
As hours 1t will be apparent who has
the best chance to be nominated. Un.
til that time the result is conjectural,
but there is no conjecture about the
underlying operations and arrange
ments. They are as set forth here
with.
Vets Hopes Spring Eternal
Joined with this is the wet and dry
fight in a way. Several Of the men
who hope to control this convention,
as herewith described. hope also, to
get a candidate sufficiently wet for
their local purposes. They know that
the resolutions committee is "a dry
CONTINUED on Page Six