New-York tribune., 1920-01-25
Ebert Victory
Predicted in
April Election
Socialists, Democrats and
Catholics Are Likely to
Unite to Re-eIect Him:
Few Seeking the Office
Center Is Losing Ground
Both the Right and Left
Wings Expected to Win
New Seats in Reichstag
By William C.. Dreher


BERLIN, Jan. lot now has bee,
settled definitely that the national eec
tions will take place about the middle
Of April. A president of the republic
and tho first Reichstag under the new
constitution arc to be chosen.
1t is too early to make any definite
predictions Is to the result of the
voting. Nevertheless, one thing nov
seems certain, in view Of recent local
elections in various towns. namely. that
the extreme parties to the right and the
left Will gain while the government
ent Socialists, in particular. will cut
deeply into the block Of seats now oc-
cupied by Majority Socialists. At pres
cnt they have only twenty-five seats
while the Majority Socialists have 1863
But since the election Of last Janu-
@ry the current has set strongly away
from the Majority to the Minority fac
ton. All the sins and mistakes of the
government, and even its virtues. skill
fully have been turned against it by its
enemies. particularly by the lndepond-
ents The "Scheidemanner." as the
Majority Socialists are dubbed in ridj
cule by the Independents, have by force
OF circumstances had to adopt a com
promise policy. Not having an absolute
majority, it had to form an alliance
with the Catholics and Democrats to
carry on any government at all. and
each of these parties has acted as a
brake upon the other two, so none of
them has been able to dictate the line
OF policy. This state of things also
naturally has made for cumbersome and
dilatory action.
Compromises Lost Support
The compromises forced upon the
government Socialists have necessarily
had the effect of discreditiing them
badly with their more radical followers.
Inc super-heated radicalism now prev
alent among the German working
GLASSES has been wholly in favor of the
independents, where it has not swept
the workmen into the still greater ex-
treme OF Communism, and one of the
most certain results that can be pre-
dicted for the national election is that
they will make very large gains.
The Independents make a great show
of confidence. At their first national
convention since the revolution, which
is now in session at Leipsic, their
leaders freely are predicting that the
election results will cause the policy
of the majority party to collapse ut
terly. They assert that all the great
industrial districts of Central Germany
are with them; and it is equally Ger
tain that they will get a majority of
the seats in the great industrial
regions Of the West. as we'll as in large
coastal cities. where radicalism has
long been rampant.
Nationalists Likely to Gain
1t is also certain that the German
Nationalists, as the Conservatives now
choose to style themselves, will score
considerable gains. Just as moderation
on the part of the government has
made for migration toward the left.
b has also its radicaism promoted a
s'r ng movement toward the right.
H'rlahzation plans and strenuous tax
legislation - especially the former
nave caused marked dsafection
among the mons Socialist supporters of
the government, and it may be sus-
pected that even some moderate Social
ISIS nave become convinced that their
creams OF reforming society on Earl
Marx lines are utopian, and are now
ready to join hands with the Conserva
yves IN building up a strong govern
ment that knows what it wants.
Certain it is that many Democrats
are turning to the Conservatives as
10 on. shef alc. z arS- 10 iiD d
OF fadlcaAsm now surging high on the
le1t: For the same reason it may be
predicted that the Democrats will lose
ground in the elections-the fate of ,ll
moderate parties in times of revolu
uonary exaltation and extreme party
passion. The Catholics, having re-
!igious hold upon their fol overs. viii
iare much better than the Democrats
and probably will hold their own.
Only Candidate a Joke
A. for Presidential candidates. little
can be said as yet. Only one man has
been definitely nut forward as ca.
didate. This is Herr Adolf DamaschAs
who has long had certain prominence
as landtax reformer on Henry
George lines; but his candidacy really
JOCKS like a joke. 1t had been urged
by some Of DamascNke's friends and
he has even made one public speech
IN support of it himself; but he has
such 81 ght political following THAI
MS candidacy cannot be taken seri-
predict that the Socialists, Demo
ersts and Catholics will unite upor
Ebert and reflect him Onlv a Soc a
ist has anv prospect of election. and
the other two parties in the coalition
doubtless will prefer Ebert TO any
other Socialist-like Schcidemann. fo1
instance. In any case the German
president is necessarily such figure
mead that it makes little difference whe
ne 10. ~
1t will be interesting to see wha.
course the Conservatives and the o'c
National Liberal rump will take. o.
course. their dearest plan would be ia
take advantage OF Hindenburg's great
popularity and put him forward ~
.heir candidate. But the field marshal
10 more than seventy-two wears old
wien ought naturally to eliminate him
,r"m the struggle; and, then, it is verv
doubtful whether he would accent
partly by reason Of his age. partly be-
cause he is quite without political ex-
eHence. except the sorry experience
he made Of politics during the w.
under Ludendorf's inspiration.
Hindenburg Offered leadership
may mention here. by the way. s.
report that was widely circulated and
believed at the time when Hi,denhnrg
came TO Berlin early in November r.
appear before the committee Of in.
4u,ry' and when conservative children
young and adult. took delight in mai
ing political demonstrations in hjs
nonoy. II was asserted at that +;v,e
that the Conservatives approached Hin.
denburk with a plan To inAugurate =
!n'hsary revolution to place him at the
mead Of a new German government
mt Htndsnburg. so the story con
tinuss, rejected the scheme and said
he woUj1 cpf,, u,