New-York tribune., 1920-08-10
Wilson Treaty
Seems Doomed
I'm Next Senate
If Cox Should Be Elected
Indications Offer Little
Hope to Democrats for
a Two.thirds Majority
81 Votes Is Maximum
With 34 Republican Hold
Overs and IrreconciIab1es
the List Shrinks Heavily
BY Carter Field

Senate can possibly be elected which
would ratify the peace treaty in a
manner acceptable to Wilson, Cox and
Roosevelt absorbed attention in polti-'
cal circles here to-day following the
Roosevelt eulogy of the Wilson league
in his acceptance speech.
The most optimistic of Democratic
prognosticators cannot figure it out to
the satisfaction of the dubious. The
situation is that, counting it up state
by state, the Democrats by winning
every Senatorial contest in every
single state, including Vermont and
Pennsylvania, would have a total of
sixty-two Senators, as against Re-
publican total of thirty-four, all hold
over Senators.
This is just two votes short of q
sufficient number to ratify any treaty,
but that is not all. Included in that
sixty-two Democratic Senators would
be James A. Reed, of Missouri, and
John X. Shields, of Tennessee, both
Massachusetts, who left no doubt that
he would be forced to vote against
ratification unless the Lodge reserva-
ton on Article X was adopted, and half
a dozen other Democrats who insisted
upon reservations.
Total SINNERS to SO
an irreconcilabe, and it is conceded
that unless he takes the nomination in
Colorado this year the Democrats have
no chance of electing a Senator in that
state.
The Wilson-C Cox element has scored
victory in the Oklahoma primary by
defeating Senator Gore for the nom
ination, with the result that a Repub-
lican Senator may be elected there, but
this should not complicate the theory
of sweeping victory for the league
at the Solemn referendum" approach
ing, for such a victory would of course
result in the election of Ferris.
Assuming Democratic victory every
where, even the election of a pro-
league Democrat in place of Thomas,
the Democrats would have only sixty
Senators for a league with any sort of
ratiti cation, Reed and Shields having
been deducted from the sixty-two,
while Walsh would insist upon res
ervation to Article X so strong that
one wonders if Cox would accept it.
IHlS "OuiQ pAinS IHo 'oeaA Uo"H w
ffty-nine.
But there are other annoying COM
plications to consider. Senator Hoke
Smith is battling for denomination in
Georgia. Against him are arrayed
Tom Watson, running on an irrecon-
cilable platform, and Governor Dorsey
who is for the league as Wilson wants
it, Of course, if Dorsey should win
this would leave the number of pro
| pt
fifty-nine, but the nomination of Smith
or Watson would reduce it to fifty
eight.
Smith took the positive position tina
he would not vote to ratify withou
the essence of the Lodge reservations
Watson, who in the Georgia Presiden
tial primary got more votes thar
either Hoke Smith or Attorney Gen
eral Palmer, would join Reed anc
Borah
No one really expects the Democrat!
to elect a Senator against Penrose il
Pennsylvania, in Vermont against Gil
lngham, in Iowa against Cummins ol
in kansan against Curtis. This woult
reduce the fifty y-nine-built upon giving
the Administration every contest pre-
viously mentioned-to fifJy-flve, which
is just nine votes short of the neces
sary number.
See Defeat of Wadsworth
The Democrats are confidently claim
ing that they will beat Wadsworth O
Payne, whichever the Republicans nom
mate in New York. There is no in
formation here as to Payne's stand o.
the league, but If Wadsworth shoul
be reelected, that would cut the ma
jority for ratification with only inter
pretative reservations one more. O.
the other hand, if Lieutenant Governo
II. C. Walker, the Democratic Sena
torial nominee, should be elected i
New York, there is no certainty tina
he would not favor a strong reserva
tion on Article x, since Tammany lead
ers generally are very strong for sue
reservation.
In Connecticut the Democrats al
very hopeful Of electing Homer
Cummings over Senator Brandege'
but if Brandegee should pull throug
another subtraction from the ffty-fv
left must be made, he being an irreco1
cilable.
Included in the fifty-fve, besides tn
counting on the seats of Brandege
and Wadsworth being captured by Pre-
league Democrats, is the seat of Nose
of New Hampshire, another irrecor
cilablc. Moses's seat is recognized g
being in danger, but best opinion her
is that he will pull through.
The Democrats are counting con
fidently on beating Senator Watson i
Indiana with Tom Taggart. They ar
not so sure that Taggart, however