New-York tribune., 1920-08-09
drop in Gold Production
Before Recovery Predicted
w. A. Berridge Believes Economic Pressure Together
With Other Factors Will Further Handicap In
dustry; Decline i'm Commodity Prices Nav Help

The gold miner probably smiles
cynically as he reads reports of recess
sions in industry He very likely
sheds no tears on learning that the in
dex numbers reveal that the wholesale
prices Of commodities arc falling. For
the gold miner, with the consuming
public, has been to a large extent the
goat in the period of imitation and ever
ascending cost of living.
Being fixed, the price of gold can
not rise when other things do. Con-
sequently, in terms of wheat, shoes,
and theater tickets, gold comes less
valuable, and the inducement for min
ing the metal becomes less. This
months resulted in sharp curtail-
ment Of gold production throughout the
world. If the opposite movement Of
detiation, involving lower prices makes
substantial headway, the relative value
of gold will automatically improve, and
the inducements for mining it will be-
come larger.
Besides the economic causes, the out
put of gold in the United States in re-
cent years has also been curtailed be-
cause of local accidents, new geologi-
cal discoveries and developments in
mining methods. William A. Berridge,
a careful student of the problem, in
discussing the situation in the most
recent "Review of Economic Statistics"
of the Harvard University Committee
on Economic Research, takes the view
that production will probably fall off
still further before recovery sets in
not only in the United States, out also
in certain foreign fields.
Difficulties in Australasia
"In Australasia" he writes, "the
difficulties are even greater than in
the United States; in India, a decline
is more likely than an increase, unless
new fields are developed outside the
Kola group. On the other hand, the
Transvaal should maintain an output
not far from it's present level, and
even may within a few years recover
more decisively, provided that develop
ment of the East Rand mines runs at
least pari passu with the exhaustion of
older mines in the West and Central
Rand. Ten or fifteen years from now
another decline may set in, unless new
discoveries are made either at depth or
in other South African fields. Canada
will certainly increase it's output above
pre-war levels, and in Mexico and
Russia the same thing will happen, al
most as certainly upon the establish
ment of more favorable political con-
ditions. Russia, South America, and
Mexico will all eventually offer excel
lent opportunities for the application
of efficient mining methods. 1t is al
most unnecessary to add, finally, that
important new discoveries may sudden
ly take place, even where least ex-
pected, and upset all calculations.
"But in all fields the time and ex-
tent of recoveries or of the check to
decline in production will depend to a
large extent on the future of prices and
wages. As long as the worlds cur
rency continues on an inflated basis, as
long as retrenchment of the worlds
war losses of goods continues to be
retarded by low level of production,
etc, little economic relief for gold
mining seems likely. If world prices
should remain on a high level for sew
eral years, undoubtedly the output of
the medium and low grade gold fields
will continue to decline, for none but
the best mines can afford permanently
to pay such high prices for materials