The Hartford republican. (Hartford, Ky.) 18??-1926, 1920-03-05
(By Harvey S. williams.)

downward and about half of the big
advance of the preceding week was
wiped out. The market is still under
the strong opposing influences of
small stocks, light receipts and conse-
quent big cash premiums, (due partly
to lack of transportation and partly
to holding attitude on the part Of
farmers) on the one hand, and con-
viction which is developing into a
certainty that there will be a record
surplus of all grain and food stuffs
to be carried over into the new crop
year, on the other.
The wheat situation is really the
most serious and promises to domi-
nate all grain values. In place of
the 300,0O0,O0O bushels of wheat
which government officials confident
ly expected to export during me crop
year of 1920, it now appears
doubtful if we will dispose of over
165, 200, 900 and indications are for
carry over ia all positions Of BE-
tween 175,OOO,OOO and 100000, 900
bushels into the new crop year. The
Grain Corporation has bought huge
Quantities of low grade flour for the
export trade which :hev, now find
themselves unable to sell ana are
making desperate efforts through a
10 tional Advertising canraign to sell
T. to domestic consumers. II is esti-
mated that there are still 100000
600 bushels of wheat from last years
crops held on the farms in this coun-
try and under present transportation
conditions it will be a physical i'm
possibility to market this surplus.
OF course, there is a reason for this
situation and while it has BEEN self
evident for over two years, it has been
persistently ignored in this country.
In brief, it is the Argentine surplus
which accumulated during the past
two years when ocean transportation
was absolutely unavailable. Last
weeks exports of wheat from that
country were more than twice the to-
tai from the United States and Can
ada combined, and tonnage is being
diverted to Argentine ports now at
rate that promises record-breaking
exports from there for several months
to come.
We have ignored world conditions
because Europe had to be fed and this
was the only country who could sup
ply their needs. Now this situation
appears changed entirely and natur-
ally world buyers are going into the
cheapest markets.
This situation is true not only of
wheat, but corn, oats and flaxseed as
we'll, but we have some competition
even nearer home on account of the
big discount of Canadian under Amer
lean money. Oats from Western Can
ada can be laid down at the Atlantic
seaboard at from to 8 cents below
the cost of Western oats. Export
business, which has been so widely
advertised, appears to have been
largely speculative on the part of sea-
board dealers, and instead of the tre-
mendous clearances which had been
predicted for January and February
the actual shipments have been about
the lightest on record.
The provision markets have been
even weaker than grains and this, too,
in the face of steady to strong mar
kets for hogs. This situation appears
peculiar and can only be explained
by the fact that industrial activity
in this country enables American
working men to pay fancy prices for
fresh meats. The fresh meat trade
has absolutely fixed the hog price all
winter, but in the meantime the hea-
w and rough hogs have gone to
bigger discount under the choice light
ones and stocks of lard and dry salt
ed meats in packing centers have ac-
cumulated rapidly The American
Meat Packers Association issued
statement during the week that be-
cause of the foreign financial situa-
ton and the big shipments turnout
last fall from this country, further ex-
pore business during the current sea-
son was absolutely impossible and
that we would have to base our pro-
vision prices entirely ON domestic
consumption. If the government re-
port showing over 100000 hogs in
this country on January 1, was cor
rect there is bound to be a surplus
over domestic requirements
Farmers May not Sell
While the foregoing summary ap-
pears very bearish there is another
side to the situation. The American
farmer is more independent than any
other class of our citizens and is In
position to hold his surplus because
he considers it more valuable at the
price than any other commodity.
n. - /.