The spectator., 1920-12-14
Showing Range

Whether to dispose of his potato crop direct from the fields or to hold 1t for possible later increase iu prices is problem which confronts the farmer every fall. On the one hand is the buyer offering figures based on the quantity and other conditions of the market the tightneSS of money, and a number of related conditions which may depress the price On the other he is confronted with the expense of storing, the shrinkage in volume, pos sibilitv of rot and the uncertainty of the number of bushels of potatoes which will be carried over by farmers throughout the United States 10 be thrown into the market during the win ter.
 It is problem that has to be decid ed because the crop is there. It is voblem that the farmer must decide .cr himself.
 Lowest in October.
 Prices naturally are lowest in Octo- ber when the crop is just out of the ground. A study recently made by the bureau of markets of the United States Department of Agriculture, covering the last ten years, shows that the av- craze price rises very slightly until the 1st of January. and then more rapidly advance taking place between April planting season and June.
 These are only averages. however. and may be varied by many conditions which the farmer has to study largely for himself Reasoning about future prices is unusually difficult at the pres ent time.
 A study of the general tendencies of the market, whether up or down. must be based on facts pertaining 10 the country as a whole. The supply may he less than usual in certain county. but If the total crop Is large the size of this total crop will have a tendency to lower prices even in this country of short production. Prices in that county may be high. but they will not be so high as they would have been if the total production of the country had not been so large. That is. the conclusions drawn from the broad and general in formation may be modified by local conditions in each section, but it re- mains true that each of these sections will be influenced by the up and down tendencies which move over the cOun- try as whole. A grower should know the general situation in order to make proper allowances for local conditions and he should not only study the po- tato market but should consider the size of the sweet potato and other food crops which may influence the de mand and consumption of white pota- toes, He must watch, too. the trend of general prices. especially food prices If general prices should fall decidedly then the price of potatoes might be carried lower than the years produc tion would warrant.
 The accompanying chart shows the farm prices of potatoes, averaged for all sections of the country on the first of each month from October 1910 to September. 1920. In this table com parison of the December and the fol lowing March prices show that in 1917 and 1918 the March prices were lower than the December prices, and In 1912 and 1914 they were slightly higher. al though. allowing for shrinkage and other losses of storage. they really yielded a smaller return. That Is, in all years having production of more than 4o0,oO0,0O0 bushels, the March price was either lower than the De cember price, or the increase was neg ligible. When the production has been less than 3T5, ,0o0, 900 bushels the price has tended to increase as the season advances. The farmer may judge for himself whether the same factors will apply to the present years crop. which is estimated at 13,000,000 bushels by the bureau of crop estimates, and he may apply his own conclusions in de- ciding when to sell his potatoes.
 In comparing the prices of one year with those of another. allowance must be made for the rapid decrease during the last few years in the purchasing power of the dollar. For instance. S1.6l per bushel In 1919 and so cents per bushel in 1911 does not mean that potatoes were twice as valuable at the later date. The increase in price may have had nothing to do with the pota- to business. It may have come from the general rise which increased the price of wheat, clothing and machinery as well as potatoes. The effects of the general increase in prices must be eliminated from tbe calculation.
 Potato Exports Small.
 Before attempting to analyze the re- lations between the figures of pro- duction and stocks on the one hand and prices on the other, it should be mentioned that potatoes are not ex- ported to any great extent, seldom more than per sent of the crop be-