Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial., 1920-05-18
The Crop Outlook
Ey frederic J. iiaslin

Washington. ID. e., May 8 SRemark-
ably unfavorabie weather combined with
q shortage of farm labor make the outlook
for good production in the United states
this year perhaps the worst the country
has ever faced
This is the eist Of an interview with
Leon NJ Esterbrook, Chief Of the Bureau
of Crop Estimates Of the Department
OF Agriculture
Mr. Esterbrook says that from now on
weather will be the decisive factor. II u IS
favorable we need not worry; we VIII have
enough to eat and q small surplus for
export. II IT IL fair, We viii probably have
Just about enough for our own use. If the
growing season is markedly unfavorable,
the United States may for the first time
IN It's history fail to produce enough food
stutfs for domestic consumption.
There are, Mr.. Estabrook explains,
three main factors in agricultural pro-
dueton the farm acreage, labor and
weather. Is a result of labor shortage
and unfavorablc weather conditions. the
acreage planted in the United states this
year is below normal Thus all three
factors arc adverse 10 large production.
hArE SPRING SERIOUS.
The chief unfavorablo weather condi-
ton 80 far is n late spring. The season
IL from two to five weeks late all over the
nited States 4 late spring IN one SEC
tion of the country Is not unusual. but 3
late spring all over the country does not
occur once ~ twenty years
As n result of this late spring, with
mueh ram ploWlng and planting have been
delayed IN almost every section Oate N
Maryland and Virginia, for exnmple,
should have been planted about March -.
Ior the most part. tie land N which they
should have been planted has not even
been nloWcd The land has been too wet
for pfowing II would not hold up "a
horse. and besides il land IS plnNed when
too wet. II tompacts and cannot be clllti-
vated As \ result If these conditions,
many farmers ~ tht9 section will not
Hlaut any oats ~ all
Cotton has suffered IN much the same
i way. IN early planting oi cotton q
necessary. not only because cotton needs
= long growing season. but also because
the crop must be natired carly IT, escape
the ravngce of the boil weevll III the
moro northern cotton states. II has been
impossible - plant the crop 1T the right
time. or even - plov the ground The
result IS that some farmers will not plant
cotton and that some crops will grow up
late IT the mercy of the bell wecyil
These arr merely examples. Many
other crops are equally threatened by the
late season The thing needed above all
Is = warm period without rain Farmers
say that Il has ruined every Friday for
| months couple of ralnlc-s weeks NOW
would tc It Godsend
RtIs NEEDED ftTEf.
Tho rain will he needed later IF this
late spring Is followed by a dr. summer
It will be catastrophe. because the young
plants. started late. will DO unable to
resist drought
Aside from the Iatcnezs 0f the season
many farrncrs are forced ~ plant less this
year than LAST because hey cannot get
labor to help them IN planting and plow-
ing, and hey d. not see much prospect ol
getting the necessary help in harvest
time The tendency rs shown by reports
coming to the Bureau Of Crop Estimates
IA for the farmer 70 plant just what he can
handle comfortably with the help Of his
| family Tho fact that prices Of farm
products are showing 4 tendency TO fall
without the ultimate consumer getting
any Of tho benefit Is also discouraglnp
the .armer rom large planting. Prices
Of hogs. for exaraple. have fallen twenty
i've EtF CENT ditil1AElA HAS 4&p AtAAttii
nearly that much And the farmer Is told
that prices Of fo0dstuffs arc going still
lower Therefore he Is not enthusiastic
for large paintings
ROADS ROB FARMERS or MEN.
But the shortage Of labor. next to the
late season. Is the chief factor in keeping
down the acreage. There are several
causes for this shortage. One Of the most
immediate is the great activity in road
building In almost every section Of the
country roads are being built by federal
aud. and farm labor IS turning TO the
roads \ hired man on farm makes from
S65 10 500 a month and his board. The
road gangs offer hm from ST TO s. day.
The workman pIcfcrs the larger cash
return.
Industry 10 the cities is also draining
the farm labor supply. rs it has always
| done 4 very usual thing these days IS for
a young man raised on a farm, and having
some aptitude for tools, 10 20 70 the city
and become a mechanic. He makes from
81 to SI3 day, which IS more than i
whole family can earn on q farm. Besides
this. be has more amuseHcnts and more
opportunities for education and progress.
The draft took about two million Young
men from the farms While they were
gone the old folks. the women and the
children pitched III and worked as the
farm population of this country never
worked before They we're aided by
volunteer farm labor from the cities TO
some extent They not only kept the
feIds planted but increased the total
farm acreage about ten per cent.
New. with np price guarantee and Hlth
prices for farm products falling, the farm
neople are not gong II make any such
herole efforts again Aud the Young men
are net coming back to the farms Dis
charged from the army. they are staying
III the cItles finding places IN industry
Alls of these factors combine to make the
labor shortage really acute The bureau
estimates that tn farm labor supply Of
the country IS q whole is thirty per cent
less than normal.
WlTEAr SHORTAGE POSSIBLE.
The only drop upon which an estimate
IN figures can be placed Is the winter
Wheat crop This, oi eoutse IS the most
important one
The nlted States needs about 650.-
GOO 900 bushels oi wheat for domestic
consumption This Is the amount that Wc
must produce il You and | are to get our
regular ratfons of bread and butter.
Tie winter Wheat crop alone last year
Wss - .oUo,0o bushels This Year It Is
estimated that il viii be IS3.00u.000
hashel
Ihr ~prng wheU crop last year vas
atl uUO 9n bushels II cannon be eSfj-