The Rock Island Argus and daily union. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1920-1923, 1920-07-27

government soothsayers, prophets
OF the future, revealers OF things
that are to be. are just now coming
to the end OF Q stressful season.
They have again been asked to give
the answer, far In advance OF =
normal revelation of the facts, to
the vital question: How much food
will America contribute to q hun
Try world!" They are the men
Who operate the bureau Of crop
estimates Of the department OF ag-
riculture, and it is no small task
to tell in advance the likely yield,
year by year, from all the farm
lands in the United States.
The government, month by month.
Is the season advances, complies
all the information that it can get,
and from that information draws
the best conclusions that its expert
ence and wisdom make possible as
to the amount of wheat, corn, cot
ton and other crops that are to
come from the soil. 1t gives this
information to the Wall street bro
ker, to the dealer, the consumer,
the farmer. to everybody. 1t does
this, that the sophisticated among
the hundred million may not have
an advantage over the unsophis-
ticated, that markets may not be
juggled on false information, that
whoever buys or sells these staples
may have the facts upon which to
base q judgment Of their value.
Every month during the spring
and summer the bureau of croL
estimates issues a statement in
which it reviews the crop situa.
ton, and figures from these facts
what the yield should be. 1t finds
out as nearly as it can how many
acres have been planted to the diff
ferent crops, and the conditions un
der which these crops are grow
ing. 1t compares the acreage ant
conditions with similar report.
from past years. 1t reaches tn,
conclusion that the logical yield un
der the circumstances should b.
this figure or that. 1t shows how
the estimate compares with the croI
Of last year, aud with the crop o
the average year. This is neces
barry because the consumption OF |
product like wheat is constant, ant
yardstick must be furnished b,
which to measure prosperity,
prices.
! An Army or Reporters.
| 1t is an infinitely difficult thin,
to find out in April, for instance
just how many acres have beel
planted in wheat between Main
and Oregon. The department, how
) ever, has about 215,000 reporters
Each OF these is a man who
close to the soil in his community
Each makes up a statement il
which he estimates that the acre
age in his community is normal, l
per cent above, Is per cent below
or whatever he believes it to be
Three estimates come in from ever
community, and the average Q
these three is likely to be a nearl
correct estimate. If this estimat
is too high it is likely to be counter
acted by an estimate from anothe
community which is too low. TIL
average of all estimates from al
sources is likely to be quite close t
the facts.
, With the acreage determined a
nearly as possible, the department
asks for reports, month by month
on the condition of the crop. Is
normal, or better or worse tina
normal? Its 215,000 reporters sen
in details on this subject. Acre
age and condition being determines
the crop probabilities are figure
out.
:. The man in township, having
bumper crop or a poor one, migt
!, conclude that the nation would b
!, overfed or starved according to hi
: prospects. The county agent migl
!, draw different conclusions from b
outlook. The field agent repr,
senting a great state might registe
: gloom or optimism according to h
lights. But the individual reckon
ing Of any one of these is on tc
narrow a plain. Even the prospe
tive yield Of this most product,
OF nations might be counteracted /
| world conditions