The Birmingham age-herald., 1920-05-02
DOES
 THE UNEXPECTED
By HOLLAND

New York, May 1.-The latest report
 from Washington which tell of S6ur in-
 ternational trade in March again prove
 the truth of the epigram that it is the
 unexpected which happens. In January
 of this year the prediction was made that
 it was inevitable that there be a falling
 off in our exports There was a clear
 intimation, although not positive state.
 ment of this kind in communication
 made by Thomas w. Lamont to the Lon
 don Times. For it was asserted that Flu
 rope and the rest of the world could not
 buy very much from the United States
 for two reasons-first, our inability to ex-
 tend credit. and second, the enhanced
 value of the dollar as compared with the
 currency of European and other na-
 tions.
 Since January some of the ablest au-
 thorities have said that our exports are
 certain to diminish. As recently as March James S. Alexander, a high authority who has been especially interested in condi-
 tions in Europe, was authority for the statement that curtailment of exports 1 from the United States to Europe is f1, process as a result of the high premi..n on the dollar abroad
 Nevertheless, we are not witnessing a phenomenon which is without parallel. It is said that it justifies the optimism of Judge Gary and others who look upon the present financial as momentary sure to pass away when labor difficulties are settled
 To think that in March We sold and sent to other nations commodities which were or the money value of $S20, ,000,0 900 is to ] think in terms in billions almost In fact | the international trade for March, if Ym- ports and exports are combined reached the colossal figure of S1, ,300, ,0O0, ,oOO Before the days of the European war an interna- tional trade of that kind would have been spoken of as phenomenal, and probably temporary.
 IN TIME OF PEACE Of course, when the war was in progress
 and Europe was buying enormously in the United States our exports reached high up into the billions each year But that was spoken of as temporary, sure to be brought to an end when peace came. but peace is now established, real although technically not adopted with Austria and Germany, and nevertheless American manufacturers and exporters are selling to other countries commodi- ties which if the figures are maintained throughout the year, will reach the al- l most inconceivable total of sl0 900. GOO .0o0 HOW TT IS PAID FOR It is impossible to learn even from dili- gent inquiry in what manner these heavy exports are paid for. Our merchants and manufacturers and bankers must be e,e tending credit, although silence is main tained for the most part respecting trans actions of this kind. One of the paradoxes Of our national trade is that although a trade balance in favor of the United States for the nine months of the pres- ent fiscal year amounted to $3, 300 900, GOO, nevertheless we have been compelled to export large balance in gold, If there be left out of the consideration the recent import of gold sent by Great Britain to this country for special purpose, namely the payment of the notes which were sold | in the United States on account of Eng l land and France in 1915. There is gold | trade balance, so to speak, against us Of about $90000,000 in nine months. We have I been compelled to export gold to South America and to the far east The ex- planation, however, which is made by | the international bankers seems to be reasonable. They say that the balance of trade between the United States and | South America and the far east, is against | this country. But it is impossible to off | set this by any part of our favorable trade balance with other nations, because these other nations also owe South Amer | ica and the far east.
 A CURIOUS PHENOMENON | Therefore. without any precedents there ] Is now observable curious trade phe- nomenon because with an enormous trade balance in our favor, nevertheless we are compelled to send gold and silver In or der to balance unfavorable international l trade with South America and the far east.
 A FAVORABLE SYMPTOM There can be no better evidence of the demands which are made upon American industry both by our domestic business | life and by other nations, than the fact that we are compelled to import commod- ities in rapidly increasing proportion as compared with imports during war days. In the month of March, for instance, the l money value of our imports was little k-t,< Dfnfd Q a iyl