New-York tribune., 1920-10-17

out are stronger here than anywhere
else IN the state. Harding will carry
Louisville by a majority ranging some
where between 5000 and 15.00U-prob
ably. from present Indications. by
about 1000 but Ernst will beat Beck
nam IN Louisville by at least 5000
more than that, and perhaps 10 1000.
beckham may make a little of this
up IN the dry sections of the state, but
the opposition of many of the STANLEY
people, and the enmities he has in
CURED, make this unlikely.
In considering Kentucky it must be
sakcn into consideration that the state
has never delivered it's entire electoral
vote to Republican Presidential nom
inee. Even the Republican landslide of
1904, when Roosevelt defeated Parker
did not tear Kentucky loose from the
Solid South. In 1895. with one of her
sons on third ticket, and with n
tremendous sound money sentiment
Kentucky split her electorate. BRYAN
got one vote. by majority of 231. and
Mckinley got twelve.
Yet this state, which has never gone
VII oleheartcdly Republican since the
Civil War, and whose population is
very largely of Virginia extraction
elected Republican, Governor, Ed
win 7. Morrow. last fall by 10000 ma
jority. Louisville also elected Re
publican Mayor. The Republicans now
hold four OF the eleven seats in the
House OF Representatives the 10th
and 1lth, both mountain districts.
the 11th being entirely in the noun,
tains. and the 10th mostly, the Sth,
where King Swope won brilliant vic
tory in the recent by election, and the
9th, which is the city Of Louisville.
They feel fairly confident Of holding
these four districts, though tie Swope
district is in danger
Representative Nicholas Loneworth
and other prominent speakers from
other states have visited the district
in the hope of aiding Swopo's fight.
The Republicans also profess to be
hopeful of defeating Representative
thomas in the Sd District, but the
chances there are not good unless the
promised Republican landslide mate
rallies.
Negro Issue Basis of Fight
In desperate effort to stave off
what looks like Republican victory,
the Democrats are centering their at
tack on the negro issue. They are
appealing to the white women of the
SO as to prevent mixed schools for
white and black children. Just why
the election of Harding should BRING,
mixed schools to Kentucky. whose
constitution expressly forbids mixed
schools, is not made clear, but there
Is no doubt that they are making
hcadway with the issue. | met white
women VINO were worried about it,
AND ran into indications that tho
Democrats We're doing a rather ef-
fectlve job in diverting the issue from
Wisconsin and the league to this ap-
peal to prejudice
The Republicans arc countering as
we'll as they can by pointing out that
although Governor Morrow has been in
office for almost year and has had a
Republican Legislature there has been
no move to lnaugurate mixed schools.
Also they call attention quietly to The
fact that Governor Cox has been in the
saddle IL Ohio for four years and had
a two year administration prior to that.
yet Ohio has mixed schools for whites
and negroes.
Governor Morrow, not satisfied with
meeting an underground attack bv an
underground defense, has come out il,
the open in denouncing the charge that
Republican victory viii mean nike
schools.
An attempt to analyze the rcgistra-
tion figures is bewildering to an out
slider, although the totals would seem
to give a big advantage to the Repub-
lcans, in contrast with previous years.
The registration, it must be remem-
bered, is only for the towns, which
means that most of the strength of the
big Republican district of the state. the
mountainous Eleventh, is not shown
Despite this the total Democratic ma
iority on registration is only about
$500.
Change in Registration
The biggest change is shown in the
registration of the city of Louisville
In 1915 in the city there was Demo
cratic registration majority of 10,0l6
Last year this had changed so that the
Republican registration majority was
1920, but when Election Day rolled
around the Republican majority in the
city was in excess of 5000. This year
the Republicans piled up a registration
majority in Louisville of S,535, with
10.984 independents.
Despite these figures, the Democratic
politicians in Louisville actually de
clare there is a chance to carry the
member Of the House from this dis
trict. The Republicans claim they will
carry Louisville by $4,000 and they
have confidential polls showing ma
jority Of 1880. Putting everything
together, it would seem to an unprei-
udiced observer that Harding ought to
carry Louisville by not less than 5000.
The majority is put at less than Coz
ernor Morrow's figure OF last year be
cause, despite the better showing ON
regi stration, there are indications here
and there that Harding cannot do as
we'll as did Governor Morrow.
A surprising thing is that the Demo
Gratis extract a great deal of comfort
from the registration figures They
start off with the assumption that theV
will get three quarters Of the indepen-
dent vote. They say. IN claiming this.
that the vote registered as indie
pendent in the past has usually gone
mostly to the Republicans. Therefore.
they figure. the majority OF persons
registering Independent did so to avoid
disclosing to the powers that be that
their votes would be against the local
government. This year, inasmuch as
both state and city governments arc
in the hands Of the RepGblicans. the
vote registered as independent must be
inclined toward the Democratic party
and anxious TO conceal the fact from
the Republicans in authority.
Disregarding the claims of the poll
ticians, it seems likely that, while the
tendency is not so strong as it was in
the past, there is still considerabl
number Of persons in Kentucky who
register as independents, and even as