Pine Bluff daily graphic., 1920-02-05
|NITED STATES MAY
 PRICE DROP, SAYS COMMITTEE
|.rvard Research Body Gives
 interesting Figures On Trend

Cambridge, Miss, Feb' 4'-Ihe
 arvard committee on economic re-
 arch, appointed by Harvard univer-
 .,, to make special studies of ec-
 ,omic conditions, has just announ-
 d that the United States may ex-
 a+ a check in the upward move
 n+ of nrices and of business ac-
 ,,;+v % which has been in progress
 nce @ last April and perhaps a drop
 nrices. At the present time,
 ,Iever. the committee states, and
 tho basis of the November and
 ecenber figures. It would be
 rematnre to conclude that vident
 ecession in commodity prices is
 The committee was appointed by
 aryard university in 1917 to as-
 q in the solution of the fundamen- 1 i economic problems which under Ie modern commerce and finance.
 nrovides statistical information 1 federal reserve banks, for banking buses and large corporations and kcludes among it's publications
 nvIpW OI GcOuOullC WhlNH bntains a price forecaster.
 1 The committee bases it's present brecast upon statistical material hpresenting the decline in the New fork bank clearings, the volume of kles on the New York exchange, the |rices of industrial stocks, and an- Svsis of the banking and trade situ- tion, domestic and foreign.
 Professor Warren M.- Persons, edi- \ of the statistical service publish h by the committee, says that the katistics collected by the commit ee indicates that the farmers will bntinue to prosper in 1920 and that he prosperity of this industry will bntribute to that of all others dur hg the coming year.
 Favorable Omen.
 The beginning of the new year, he eclares, finds American manufac- uring industries in a sound and roperous condition.
 "The tightness of the money mar et and the announced policy, al- eady inaugurated, of the federal re- erve board of increasing discount ates have caused many observers ) have grave misgivings for the fi- ancial outlook for 1920," he says. Instead of causing alarm, the ac- on of the federal reserve board hould, in fact, be regarded as a fa- orable omen. High interest rates re the main reliance for protecting ank reserves and they spell not isaster, but safety, provided they re applied in time. Control of in- rest rates is the safe and effective ay of dealing with such situation , we now face, and it is to be hoped lat nothing-not even the needs of le United States treasury-will di- srt the reserve board from pursuing le only sane and conservative purse.
 "The outlook for 1920 is for al of large demand for redit that will not be supplied ex- ept at increasing rates. High rates or bank loans will eventually tend , cteck the upward movement of ,ady checked the upward trend of prices as they have al- ,curity prices and the volume of oeculation on the New York stock schange."
 Of the belief of some business men lat the whole economic situation ow is abnormal the committee iys: Abnormal it certainly is in any respects. Prices are very high; lere has been great expansion of Ink credit; extravagant expendi- Ire, both public and private, is 'und in every hand; and our abnor- ally large export trade is likely to lffer curtailment. + + + A year ago ay observers expected a violent 'op in prices and a crisis in 1919. oday there seems to be less reason IT expecting such developments in The Harvard committee on econo- lc research is planning to publish 's year monographs embodying 'ecial studies of the principal :onomlc conditions and forces that Ill affect prices and trade thruout| e world during the next five years. ne committee also will study and asslfy and annual statistics of in- istrlal commerce and finance and Ill construct trade indices based 'on them. The committee is com 'sed of university professors and en of affairs with Chas. J. Bull OK, professor of economics at Har- lrd, as its chairman.