Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1920-10-25
WHEAT PROSPECTS AND PRICES

WHEAT PROSPECTS AND
MI. McGovern, head of the states
inspection, milling n elevator in
dustries, DR.. Ladd, and others, have
urged the farmers t 0 hold their wheat
for higher prices. 1t is very simple,
and comparatively safe, for politicians
who are in receipt of fat salaries, and
who are not dependent on wheat
prices for their living, to tender such
advice to farmers who need every
dollar that they can squeeze out of a
crop. If the price goes up, in Verif-
cation Of their predictions, they can
say I'VE told o So" and claim the
gratitude Of the farmers for giving
such useful counsel. II the price
goes the wrong way. they can say the
gamblers did it. That 10 what Tom
Lawson did a few years ago when his
stock gambling predictions went
wrong, and a lot CT people went
broke following his advice. Unfor-
tunately LAwson's explanation did not
bring his victims money back, INC
if the farmers of North Dakota
should lose money by holding their
wheat, they need not look to Nc
| Govern, Laid 1t nj. to bear any part
Of their losses,
Whether farmer. holds his wheat
or sells it. ts-his own personal bust
stons, and it he Is wise he will make
them on the basis-of a study of actual
market csndttons. ard not on the ad-
viceaof spectators and politicians, no
matter whistler their advice n to hold
or to seh.
There-are. evera conditions which
have q bearing on the situation which
it VIII be useful to take into account.
Among them may be mentioned the
following:
Contrary to assertions often made,
wheat prices are TOT usually material
~ higher in the spring than in the
fall. That fact was brought out very
clearly by the ~tabulation presented in
this paper ron Geo. II. johnson, of
Wales, a short time ago. By price
quotations extending over a long series
Of years. Mr.. johnson showed that in
prices exceeded fall prices by enough
to pay ordinary interest and storage
charges. There have been excep.
tions, and, of course. this year may
be one of the exceptions.
The general level OF prices is fall.
ing. not rising. This applies to al
farm products, and, as compared witt
the high mark during or imm ediatel,
!, following the war, wheat has de.
clined less than mos other farm rr
duets. Corn, for instance, is sellin.
, today at about oneSthtrd of his high
est price. But che shrinkage is no
confined to farm products. The sam
, tendency is observable In all the xrea
:, staples, in sugar, lumber. clothing
and manufactured products gener
ally.
This country has zoo, ooo, 900 bush
). els Of wheat more than its people viii
consume. That surplus must b
:. stored and carried over or sol
y abroad. Canada has a surplus o
: nearly zoe. 200. 900 bushels Tha
must be stored or go abroad, and
= will have the sane effect on fofeig1
. consumption and foreign price
i whether it goes through American o
Canadian ports.
: The prevailing rate Of exchang,
which is due primarily to the enorm
Gus transfer Of credits during the va
e period, is such as to place a premium
. O. European purchases Of grain fror
India, from Australia, and in some
Il what less degree, from Argentina an
Canada than from the United State
n Crop prospects in Argentine ar
usually good.
n These facts, which are undenabl
do o support any expectation {
n materially higher prices for wheat.
Fl The one element which seems
y indicate the possibility Of a ~stiffenin
y of wheat prices is the fact that viii
y in the past few days there has been
tendency toward nor liberal buyin
for Europe. This may mean that til
d elements of difference which ha,
1t discouraged such buying heretofor
have reached a balance. and That v
may compete with other producers Q
# practically tho present basis.
q The price Of wheat IL governed /
world conditions. Local fluctustio,
!. occur from local causes, but thes
~ fluctuations cannot carry the price Il
in either direction from the sener,
basic price established by world SUI
ply and world demand, and worI
supply and demand are influenced l
all the conditions. Industrial, con
mercial and financial, which affect IL
= prosperity and purchasing power
peoples.