The Washington herald., 1920-12-27
TRADE RECOVERY
EXPECTED WITHIN
NEXTSIXTYDAYS
Authorities Differ But
Four Months Is Maxi.
mum Limit.
ESTIMATES UPHELD
Great Skepticism Prevails on
Part Of Those Most Famil-
lar With Undercurrents.
By G. b. EVANS.

btC. So.-aI ltdct tWO
authorities of national reputation
who make what Is termed scientific
investigation of the course Of trade
have reached the conclusion that
there will be a recovery In business
within a period of sixty days. one
of them making II thirty days, and
some men OF the practical type
have named four months. The scien-
tific fellows work the thing out in
their libraries and do not neces-
sarily come in close personal con-
tact with the business man and their
diagrams showing what has hap
pened and what accordingly will
happen make an impression on COM
paratively few persons: others see
little significance in a line beginning
in a given square on the paper and
wiggling its way through many
squares to the one in which the con-
clusion of the craftsman is chiefly
placed. One cannot doubt the
utility OF these studies, nor can one
commit himself unreservedly to the
elimination which the student has
reached. Graphs, irregular lines.
curves. dividers or even multiplied
tion tables do not settle the ques-
tion. for there are many elements
in the case covered by these con-
trivances.
Conclusions Are Supported.
There is moderately good support
to these conclusions among practical
men of long experience. but 1t must
be admitted that in this city the
skepticism Is great on the part of
those most familiar with the under
currents, with the efforts that have
been put forward. successfully thus
far, to prevent catastrophe to in
dividuals and corporations.
So greatly impressed with the
weaknesses in certain directions are
these ren that one large producer
in this city. himself needing no con-
sideration from his creditors. de-
clares that there ought to be a
moratorium of sixty days. There
are plenty of private moratoriums
now, he declared. This idea is con-
trary to that of the bankers gen.
orally and others most closely de-
voted to the recognized principles
of economics, but that 1t is en-
tertained by some good men is sig
nificant Of the present state OF mind.
Authorities Not Positive.
Men here whose opinions are
sought with the highest sense OF
| their value are not speaking with
any positiveness as to what will
happen; they are a good deal more
likely to ask questions. The in
dividual who has much at stake is
perched high on the pinnacle Of in
| decision and Is looking about to
see what will happen. One says;
IF we get through to March with
out disaster, we shall be in a COM
i paratively safe position" That Is
a point in time considered of much
| Importance, in view of the period
Of settlement running for a month
or two from the first of the year
Many men in weak positions have
been saved in advance. but income
accounts and balance sheets that
will be disclosed in the next few
1 weeks will show conditions in many
instances that have not heretofore
been known.
The various points in the round
of business are fairly well known
to everybody. The manufacturer car
buy his raw material at lower
prices than heretofore, and accord
inely can sell to the jobber at hg.
ures far below those OF the husf
times. The jobber in his turn car
and commonly does treat the re-
taller equally well, but the latter
gentleman is a stubborn chap anc
is getting all the traffic will bear
and more, too.
Cases are reported here of men ir
| that line who have scheduled de-
clining prices as of various dates II
the future, the latest date bringinE
a figure which will involve him II
loss. He Is trying to average dowr
by high prices today and low prices
next month perhaps. In view of tn,
figures for which he gets his good
from the jobber, the low pric'
should be made today, but the pub
lie does not understand wholesal,
prices and quality of goods as wei
as he and, Of course, there are man!
cases where the purchaser think
he must have the things he need
right away at whatever price i
charged. This man is the consumer
Consumer Often Wage Garner.
In many instances he is a wag
Garner. If he is still employed, h
| is getting nearly the high figure
of a few weeks ago. but he know
his position is precarious and h
knows the weekly stipend mus
shrink some time. There is tn
weak point. He will not be as larg
buyer as heretofore. The ten
dency OF prices at that end there
fore will be lower, but 1t is be
lieved that the wide gap betwee'
them and the figures for raw mate
rial will be closed in part. 1t is be
lieved that raw material will ad
vance somewhat. that we shall e
back to the pre-war volume of trade
but that neither prices nor wage
will go to the pre-war level. Thi
is the same as saying that we shal
in good degree recover the stabilit
of trade at a point intermediate be
tween the flush times and the pre-
war ffppas