Evening star., 1920-10-31
DEMOCRATS FORECAST
KENTUCKY BY 100000
Chairman Haly Gives Out Predic'
tion on Eve of Most Exciting
Election Since 1896.
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
LOUISVILLE, KY. October 3O-OI
the eve of what. as far as Kentucky
is concerned. is the most exciting ant
arousing presidential election since
1896. Percy Haly. democratic organ
ization chairman. predicts a majority
of 40.000-it is conceded to be GER
tain that the figure cannot be les:
than 10000 or $4,000.
Possibly the league of nations. take
it all in all, is the major reason fol
democratic enthusiasm, but a great
factor is the struggle for racial dom
nance in certain thickly populated
portions of the state.
Truth compels the assertion that the
race question Will be the deciding
factor in bringing out the country
vote in the Bluegrass, which includes
most of the seventh and eighth con-
gressional districts. No accurate sur
vey of conditions is possible without
giving it due consideration. There
are sporadic indications of it's latent
existence in the agricultural and some
of the mining counties in western
kentucky, but the issue is not para
mount.
1t is not a question of fear of social
equality. 1t cannot be likened to the
arousing of race prejudice in Ohio
or elsewhere. 1t is not acute, but a
chronic condition which is aggra-
waited by equal suffrage. In the CEN
trail Kentucky counties where there
are many good-sized cities and towns
the campaign has resolved itself into
racial dominance. These people. ac-
customed to seeing their negro citi-
zens casting their votes en- bloc for
the republicans, suddenly on regiStra-
tion day saw this vote doubled with
out a sign of a break in it's solidarity.
on their way to or in nightly meetings
in schoolhouSe or church receiving in
structions as citizens, not on the is
sues of the campaign. but as to the
hour the polls open and how to vote
the straight republican ticket. The
realization has been borne in on these
people. one gathers. that here is a
solid block of voters, doubled in
strength which does not consider
men or measures, but only the party
emblem.
1t has been apparent from the start
that the only thing that could mill
tate against democratic success was
apathy. coupled with Indifference on
the part of the woman voters in the
party, and since it is plainly evident
that both these obstacles have been
overcome. there is nothing to hinder a
substantial majority.
Reports from every section of the
state indicate that the democrats We're
never more aroused than in this fight.
with the women vying with the men
in every phase of campaign activity.
This appears to have disheartened the
republicans who have never made
much of a success at waging a de-
fensive fight in Kentucky, and it is
regarded as hardly likely that any of
the republican leaders seriously be-
lieves that his party has more than
poor chance to carry The state.
0nnnCifinn n las n
has played havoc with republican
prospects. This is believed to be one
of the main reasons for the apparent
apathy on the part of the mountain
women, who did not register in any
where near as large a percentage as
did their sisters in the democratic
communicable Bluegrass. Penny
rile and Purchase. Another reason
for the wives of republican voters in
the tenth and eleventh districts stay
ing at home is said to be the activity
of the Primitive Baptist preachers.
who are telling their womenfolk not
to vote. 1t is against the tenets of
this sects belief. as propounded by
their ministers. for their women to
take part in politics, and this branch
of the church. made up of what the
others call the "footwashing Bap-
tists." is particularly strong in the
mountain region. Not even the horse
back riders sent out by the republi-
can organization in an effort to arouse
the worhenfolk in the less accessible
regions have been able, it is reported,
to persuade them to consent to make
the trip to the settlement to cast their
first ballot.
AS to majorities. taking registration
figures and county chairmens reports
as a basis, one is able to hazard a guess
at congressional district majorities.
The first district, always democratic,
should register a ma ajority of from 20 600
to $4,000. The second districts demo-
cratic organization is in better shape
than ever. The ma jority should be 5000
at least. The third district is where the
republicans are concentrating their con-
gressional fight. The popularity of the
national ticket almost guarantees a ma
jority of 1000 and it may be twice that.
The fourth district is safely democratic
by 5000. The seventh district will give
5000 to the democratic ticket, and this
is conservative figure. In the eighth
is another pretty fight. The district
should go 5000 democratic. possibly a
little under. The ninth is good for an
other 5000 democratic ma ajorIty.
Taking up the republican side, the re-
publicans are reasonably certain of 3o.-
900 majority in the eleventh district.
their standby. They would like to see
10000 and are claiming it. The tenth
district will add 5000 more to the re-
publican total. Taking up the fifth
nouisville) district. a fair estimate
gives the republicans 5000 majority
here. The democrats do not claim this
district. but say it will be close.
These figures make democratic ma
jority of about $4,000 in the state. The
expected and indicated landslide from
the rural districts, however. should
make the figure larger.
MALCOLM W. BAYLEY.