Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1920-11-02
WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN
THE ELECTION RETURNS
The Size Of Harding's Plurality VIII
Depend on the Vote In a Group
of doubtful States"

polls today is not the election of Senator
Harding to the presidency but the size of
his majority.
The spokesman Of both national commit
tees are, of course, insisting that their can
didate will be elected. The Republicans
under other circumstances would be insisting
on it in public even though they admitted
in private that- Senator Harding did not
have chance Of victory. SO the Demo-
Gratis, who know that Cox is defeated, are
doing only what their opponents would be
doing under similar circumstances. 1t is
part of the routine Of politics. 1t deceives
no one save those who wish to be deceived.
The New York World printed on Sunday
the result of canvass Of opinion Of the Re-
publican and Democratic editors in the diff
ferent states. These editors co-operated
with the World in Its efforts to discover
just what the prospects were, and they gave
their personal estimate Of the strength OF
Harding and Cox in their states. The can
vass shows that Cox is certain of the cleo
toral vote Of little more than the solid South.
1t is admitted that Senator Harding will
carry all the states which gave their electoral
vote to Judge Hughes in 1916. There is
difference of opinion about his ability to
carry some OF the nOrWblly stuttS
that supported Wilson then, but not about
many of them.
Take Ohio, for example, which Wilson
carried by 10000. The Democrats are
claiming it for Cox. by from &c, 900 to 10 1000.
But the Republicans insist that Harding will
have from 80, 600 to 200 900 plurality. Both
Democrats and Republicans are substantially
agreed that Mr.. Willis will be elected to the
Senate by the Republicans. Ohio may be
regarded as doubtful because both candidates
are Ohioans and because on different oc-
casions each has carried the state. The re-
turns should be watched carefully when they
begin to come in tonight for indications Of
the way the people voted. A comparison of
the relative strength of the two candidates in
typical election districts will make it possi-
BILE to estimate the majority for the success
full man long before the complete figures are
received.
California returns will be interesting also,
for Wilson carried that state four years ago.
His plurality was small. but it was enough.
Senator johnson gave Hughes no help, but
A., this year he is supporting Harding. The
real contest there this year is over the re-
election to the Senate of Mr. Phelan. He
has not had the united support of the Demo
Gratis. When a card was issued a few days
ago containing the Presidents picture and
a plea to support Wilson and the League
of Nations by voting for Phelan the sup
porters Of the sitting senator rcpudiated 1t.
Mr.. Phelan did not say a word in support of
Cox till the last month in the campaign.
Kentucky, Missouri and Utah are really
doubtful states. The estimates for Cox in
Kentucky start as low as 1000 plurality.
II his supporters do not think he is stronger
than that, Harding has chance to win. The
closeness of the state is indicated by the
expectation of the Republicans to defeat
Senator Beckham for re election. Wilson
carried the state by $4,000, but the Demo
cratic strength has fallen off in the last four
years.
Missouri is claimed by both parties. But
Senator Reed has bolted Cox and is oppos-
ing the election of Breckenridge Long to the
Senate. Long is a Wilson supporter. Sen
ator Spencer is running for reelection on
his record. The chances favor his success.
II Spencer wins then Harding ought also
to carry the state. The Missouri returns
will be full of interest as they come in.
And Utah, where Reed Smoot is seeking
TO be returned to the Senate, is deserving Of
attention tonight. The Republicans in the
600, but the Democrats think that Cox will
have 49, GOO more votes than Harding. They
are confident that they will defeat Smoot
whatever the presidential result may be. The
correspondents of eastern newspapers in the
state admitted last week, however, that the
Democrats would be victorious.
In New Hampshire, where Wilson won
by SO votes four years ago, it is admitted
by both Republicans and Democrats that
Harding's plurality today will be from 5000
TO 1900. The re election of Senator
Moses, however, is in doubt II Harding
polls 12,0 900 votes more than Cox the re-
election Of Moses is likely.
In Iowa the fate Of Senator Cummins is
dependent on similar conditions. He is likely
TO run behind Harding, whose plurality is
nut at anywhere from $4,000 to 100, 900.
IL It reaches the latter figure or anything
like it Cummins will pull through. There
10 no uncertainty in Wisconsin or Illinois
over the Republican presidential ticket. Wis
consin il bitterly opposed to Wilson and his
plans for the League. of Nations. There is
no Democratic state organization there
worthy Of the name. The fight is between
the La Toilette and the anti-La Toilette
wings of the Republicans. Senator Len
root, running for re reelection, is opposed by
Mr.. Thompson, a La Toilette follower, and
by DR.. Reinsch, former minister to China,
Democrat. Even with the Republican
strength divided between two candidates, nc
one expects DIR. Reinsch to be elected. The
success of Thompson will strengthen La Fol
lette in the state and In the Senate. The
Wisconsin result will be interesting for its
disclosure Of the extent to which La Fol
| lette radicalism has spread in the state Of its
| origin.
While Illinois is regarded as safely Re-
| publican, there is uncertainty over the elec
ton of Republican governor. The Re
publican candidate is a creature Of Mayor
| Thompson. of Chicago, and is opposed by the
| Chicago Tribune and other powerful in
| auences which would rather have Jim Han
Lewis, the Democratic candidate, elected
than to have the power of Mayor Thompson
1 Jsl 30 h. .taka AL