The Ocala evening star. [volume] (Ocala, Fla.) 1895-1943, 1920-02-03
OUTLOOK FOR
NINETEEN-TwENTY
Report of the Harvard Committee On
Industrial and Business Condi-
tons in the United States
tAssocia1ed Press,


Cambridge. Mass. Feb. THE Har-
appointed by Harvard University to
make a special study of economic con-
ditions, has Just announced that the
United States may expect check IN
the upward movement of prices and
of business activity, which has been
IN progress since last April and per-
haps drop IN prices. AT the present
time, however, the committee states,
and on the basis of the November and
tUre to conclude that violent reces-
sicn in commodity prices is probable.
The committee was appointed b.
Harvard University in 1917 to assist
j nthe solution of the fundamental
economic problems which underlie
modern commerce and finance. 1t pro-
vides statistical information to feder-
al reserve banks. for banking houses
and large corporations and includes
among its publications review OF
economic statistics which contains .
price forecaster.
The committee bases its present
forecast upon statistical material rep
resenting the decline in the New York
bank clearings, the volume of sales
on the New York Stock Exchange, the
prices of industrial stocks and analy-
sis of the banking and trade situation,
domestic and foreign.
Prof Warren NJ. Persons. editor Of
the Statistical Service published By
4 1 ALn& &k..e 49,
collected by the committee. indicate
that the farmers viii continue to pros
per in 1920 and that the prosperity Of
this industry viii contribute to that
of all others during the coming year.
The beginning of the new year. he
declares, finds American manufacture
ing industries in a sound and pros
porous condition.
The tightness of the money market
ard the announced policy, already in
augurated, of the Federal Reserve
Board of increasing discount rates
have caused many observers TO have
grave misgivings TO rthe financial out
look for 1920" he says. Instead OF
causing alarm, the action of the Fed
eral Reserve Board should IN fact be
regarded as a favorable omen. High
interest rates are the main reliance
for protecting bank reserves and they
spell not disaster but safety. provided
they are applied in time. Control Of
interest rates is the safe and effective
way of dealing with such situation
as we now face, and it is TO be hoped
that nothing-not even the needs OF
the United States treasury-will di-
vert the reserve board from pursuing
the only sane and conservative course
'"The outlook for 1920 is for con-
tinuarce of a large demand for
credit that viii not be supplied ex-
cept at increasing rates. High rates
for bank loans will eventually tend TO
check the upward movement Of COM
modify prices as they have already
checked the upward trend of security
prices and the volume of speculation
on the New York Stock Exchange
Of the belief Of osme business men
that the whole economic situation now
is abnormal the committee says: 3Ab-
normal it certainly is IN many re-
srects. Prices are very high; there
has been great expansion IN bank
credit; extravagant expenditure. both
public and private. Is found on every
hand; and our abnormally large ex-
port trade is likely to suffer curtail-
ment year ago many OBJ
servers expected violent drop IN
prices and a crisis IN 1919. Today
there seems to be less reason for ex-
pecting such developments in 1920
r., a. cto-,. Ir.,.s...;s.s CD.