New-York tribune., 1920-03-08

from his perch on the bust Of Wisdom.
In due course, also, the restraint upon
the stock market and the assertions
that no money ever will be permitted
to go into securities for speculation
Will come to an end. The same sort OF
restraint was practiced after the panic
Of 1907, and then, ~ now, preaminent
financiers could not or would not see
the slightest hope for rise in stocks.
Whereupon Union Pxciic started in
upon 100-point advance, and other
stocks followed along. Again in 1914,
when the war closed tho Stock Ex-
cnange, there was no money available
thereafter Is we'll known. Now we
have had another severe decline in
stocks and the market is once more
deadlocked by lack Of monerat or
near Its bottom, as usual. Perhaps 1t
Will continue so for few weeks while
dependency and pessimism will con-
tinue to rule in Wall Street. after
which stocks will begin to reflect once
more that continuation Of industrial
activity and prosperity which is as GER
tain az the coming Of summer"
Mr.. Holt says: "The greatest World
War will almost surely Be followed by
the greatest world financial and indus
trial crisis. War debts Of fully 5000
00O, ,00o 900, ten times greater than any
previous ones, must and can be paid
only by years Of toll and saving.
The world has not yet shouldered It's
war burden. 1t must do so soon. Debts
grow rapidly. Financially. the crisis
has already begun. The worlds bank
Ing and savings institutions are under
a great strain
Says Crash II Inevitable
"The inevitable may be postponed one
or moro years longer. It may come
With crash at any time. This coun-
try IL In a strong position, but 1t will
bow TO the storm when 1t breaks.
"Our banks are attempting defiation.
They have reduced Wall Street loans
nearly one-half and have forced Iiqui-
dation Of stocks and bonds. Merchants
must now liquidate. The process IS
hard and painful.
personally I expect to see moderate
declines in most manufactured products
this spring. The prices Of food prod
owing to great shortage Of farm la
Dor, the crops are reasonably certain to
be short this year.
III serious trouble does not come
upon Us from Europe, our Federal Re-
serve banks will probably succeed in
forcing liquidation of commodities with
out bringing on serious financial trouble
this year. European conditions are,
however, most dangerous.
England Is selling goods to insolvent
countries, and is being paid in money
that is rapidly depreciating in value.
She has billions Of such money. We in
turn are carrying billions Of sterling
exchange. Unless some sort Of in
ternational agreement is concluded that
will stabilize exchange, conditions will
soon become most critical"
After pointing out that the market
had been we'll liquidated and that
prices. in his opinion, ought to rise,
Mr.. Holt said: "Tha railroad stocks
and bonds look best. Under favorable
financial conditions they should ad-
vance materially. The oil, steel and
equipment stocks may hold strong for
q while. The copper and shipping
stocks are less likely to do so. Special
stocks like Industrial Alcohol, United
States Realty, Corn Products, Interna-
tional Paper and American Linseed
should perhaps sell at higher prices"
Another Optimist
Clarence ]. Housman, senior member
of A. A. Housman & Co.. also decried
the talk Of pessimism.
Regarding the rails, he said: ~
believe that the rail stocks are in what
might be called another transitional
stage, somewhat reminiscent perhaps
of the reorganization period Of several
years ago, which was the beginning Of
q period Of rehabilitation that restored
railroad securities to the confidence of
investors. There followed the discour-
aging period Of decreasing earnings
and decreasing confidence in the rail
shares as medium Of investme ent
which eliminated in government con-
troll as q war measure"