New-York tribune., 1920-10-17
Harding to Win Close Con-
test if Dry Spell Holds
So the Mountaineers and
" omen Can Get TO Polls
Ernst Now Ahead
In Senate Race
Democrats Avoid League
and Raise Negro School
Issue i'm Plea for Cox
By Carter Field

LOUISVILLE, Oct 16.-The wealth +
on Election Day-and for the three or
four days prior probably will
toral votes Of Kentucky are counted
IN the Cox or Harding column. 1t would
be far more sensational to say that the
weather would determine whether Cox
or Harding would be President of the
United States, and this statement
would be accurate if the election were
depending on how Kentucky went.
Truth compels the admission, how
ever, that except for the glory and
moral effect, it apparently wilt make
little difference how Kentucky goes
this year. and most of the Kentuckians,
being closely in touch with the real
pivotal states of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois
and West Virginia, and hearing also
Of the tremendous Republican trend in
The Democratic state of Missouri, their
nelskbor on the west, fully realize
this situation.
Its just question Of redeeming
the Democratic party in Kentucky,' -
enc Democratic politician told me to-
day. non't mention my name, of
course, but we know that Harding is
gong to be elected We are going to
rim these Republicans, however, and
snow the nation that Kentucky has
gone back in the Democratic column. y
Discrepancy Between Claims
In no state have visited is the dis
crepancy between the confidential
ralms of the Republicans and Demo-
Gratis so great. If there is any one in
,Hc state who is neutral, or even capa-
Dle OF looking at the situation from
an lmpcrsonal standpoint, | was not
fortunate enough to find him. Even the
newspaper men down here take their
a'Ieglahce TO their political parties
nluch more seriously than their desire
10 ascertain the real truth
incidentally, IN no part of the coun-
uiy IS the democratic press more OBJ
Vlously composed of organs. The most
famous paper in the state, probably
e.,aimly ignored the big news storv
Ihursday morning that General Bar
helt, late commandant of the Marine
oorps, mad completely vindicated Sena-
.of Hardlngs charges with lie o4ence
10 atrocities in Hayti although The
associated Press de!lvered the story in
tme Tor carly editions and out-of
town papers to have it.
Every Democrat tells the innu,re,
that Cox will sweep the state by from
10000 to 10000 Every Republican
agrees that the ma ajority for HARDING
VIII run from $1,000 to 10000 the lat,
ter figure being the more popular.
mere IS one fact which every one
ADMITS. The chances of Richard =
Ernst, Republican candidate for Sena.
tor, are considerably better than those
Of Senator Harding. Unless Cox car
mes the state by more than 10000 if
IS rather certain that Senator j. G.. w
beckham Will go down to defeat. This
IS the more remarkable because this is
probably the only state in the Union
~ "nlch the Republican Senatorial NOM
NEE IS stronger than the national
ticket, or in which the Democratic Sena-
torlal nominee is weaker than his
ticket, which latter is little more &C
curate, 50 far as the Kentucky situa-
ton is concerned.
Kentucky Depends on Weather
The best prediction that can be made
IS mat Ernst will probably be elected
senator ana that the electoral vote de-
pends on the weather, with the chances
very slightly favoring the Democrats
Il the weather is bad and the Republi-
cans II the weather is good.
The Wetness or dryness of the few
Gays preceding Election Day W il MAXI
a difference in the Republican raajorit,
Up IN the mountains of from 10000 to
5000. The 1lth Congressional District
of the state is probably the banner Re
tubilcsn district of the entire Union.
l mere are no negroes, and the ties
binding the mountaineers to the Re
publican party so back to Civil War
days.
Experience has shown that on rainv
oay or just after a rainy spell when
the streams are swollen, the mountain
eers do not come out anything like so
we'll as when the weather is good and
the streams fordable There are prac-
tcally no roads up in the mountains
and voting means riding horseback or
walking for several miles, waiing such
streams as one may meet.
rms year, II is thought, the weather
viii be even more important than in the
! asst, because it Will be more OF a hard
ship for the women to get to the polls
IN bad weather than for the men, An
other element which may affect the ma
jorlty of this Republican stronghold is
'ne disposition OF the women with re-
gard to voting. There is no concealing
the fact that the mountain men were
opposed to woman suffrage, and they
do not relish very much the idea of
their womenfolks joining them in the
balloting.
There has been some worry among
the Republicans as to how the noun
tain women, for this reason, would
turn out. Tremendous efforts have
been made to enthuse the mountain
GERS to such an extent that they will
bring the women to the polls, but no
one is absolutely sure just how the
thing is going to work out. There is
iChntinued