Evening star., 1920-02-05
PLEB|SC|TESA AHEAD
OF BIG G|MPORTANCE
TOGERMAN PEOPLE
Upper SiIesia, Rich Coal Dis
trict, Likely to Go to
Poland.
By FRANK II. sIMONDs.

The events of the next few weeks
In Germany must he watched with ex-
trene care because the plebiscites
which are now to take place will
have tremendous bearing both upon
the economic and political reha biiit =
ZION OF the nations. IL the votes go
against the Germans the results will
ne disastrous for the nation and may
lead to ruin. AS consequence il may
be expected that the Germans Will
use every possible means to carry the
polls.
OF all the several regions in which
The inha abitants will now decide their
future allegiance the most important
is the Upper Silesian district. whose
population in large majority is un-
mistakably Polish. So pronounced is
the Slav majority, in fact, that the
Paris Confe erence. at first assigned the
region to Poland outright and only
substituted a plebiscite. as conces-
sion TO persuade the Germans to sign
the treaty of Versailles.
Historically the district has not be
longed TO Poland for many centuries.
IL was part OF the Silesian province
stolen from Maria Theresa by Fred
eric the Great in the middle of the
eighteenth century and this theft pre-
cipitated "A number OF bloody wars,
but despite the effort of Austria. aid
cd at one moment by Russia and by
France, to regain this territory. it re-
HIdiHCu EusSidH
Rich Coal Mines. Prize.
1t contains the richest coal mines
1'i, 10 ,rermany and has seen one of
the r'oet rapid industrial expansions
In all Europe in recent decades. II
Germany loses il she will he hope
,.ip,,ivu to coal. while for
Roland it will mean an assured an
duStrisl future By contrast il viii
., passes To Poland. further
Of h.a-
tween the two races. Forecast of the
outcome is idle. but there is set
tied conviction in all allied capitals.
aud in Washington as well, that IL
the vote is cast and fairly counted
and allied troops are to supervise
both the voting and the counting
tns Poles will win.
Less important but interesting
will. be the results in the several pie
biscite areas between the old Rus
an frontier and the Baltic, includ-
ing the region of Allenstein, where
= hd-nburg won Tannenberg and the
district of the Mazurian lakes. which
saw second great German victory
in the present war. For the Poles
the most important district is that
"n the right bank of the ristula. in
cluding the city of Marienwerder.
"a crossed by TIE main Warsaw
Danzig railway. If the Poles get It
tIey viii widen their corridor TO
the sea. gain possession of both banks
of the Vistula and control the short
,st and best rail line between their
capital and their single port. In the
MaZurian Lake district much more
'erritory is affected and the popula-
ton is more clearly Polish. but the
Poles are separated from their breth-
rem in the rest of Poland by re-
ligious difference. since they are
- ma Jority Of
Poles are Roman Catholics. If Poland
s..ouia viii aIi the elections East
Prussia would become a mere help
less fragment If she should lose
them all her exit on the sea would
be preea rious in the extreme
Polish Army Advancing.
Before the plebiscites and as a re-
suit of the ratification of the treaty
of Versailles the Poles. who occupied
the Prussian province of Posen as q
result of the armistice, are now ad-'
vsbcins and taking control of almost
all of West Prussia, including Thorn
;..id Brombsrg and thus establishing
their connection with the sea and
with Danzig. This will represent a
loss of territory considerably greater
in area than -Alsace-Lorraine. and IL
Poland wins the piebiscites Germany
will have to give up much more ter
ritory. And it is worth recalling that
il is these losses in the east which
are most humihating to German prioe
In addition the population or two
areas in Schlesvig viii vote on the
question of remaining German or be-
coming Danish. This territory was
all taken from Denmark in 1864. when
the two provinces of -Hol-
stein were the prize OF a SucceSS1ui
aggression by Austria and Prussia
against Denmark. Prussia then prom
ised that the Danish population in
the northern districts would be al
lowed to decide their nationality, but
the opportunity never came
1t is generally expected that the
northernmost area. in which the pop
ulation is exclusively Danish. viii
vote to return to Denmark, while the
other will retain German allegiance
But il is Interesting TO note that the
Danes of the old kingdom are exces-
siveIy anxious lest the transaction
: hall earn thcr, lasting German resent
msat and Ie. Il TO new German as-
grA=ion when Germany regalns her
strength. So strongly is this fear held
hat Danish influence. at least in the
SOUTH area is said to have been
~xerted in favor of Germany
There are two other areas which VIII
have later TO decide their allegiance. the
districts of Eupen and Malmedy. on the
ReIcian frontier, which were occupied by
Prussia after the Napoleonic collapse
and in part have a Walloon. that Is
French population These districts are
now occupied lne oiiu tiAS
vote will not come for another year, by
which time Belgian possession will prob
soly have become fixed in the minds
of the people
>arre Votes In Fifteen Years
The other district is the Sarre Basin
Eut it will be fifteen years before
plebiscite will come there and in the
meantime, the territory will be in part
administered by the league Of nations.
hu, under French law and as part of
the French customs union. More than
this. all the mines now pass into French
ownership permanently
IL will be seen that these several
transactions not only insure the imme-
Giate loss Of much valuable territory to
Germany. but may lead to staggering
tlow il. i'll addition to the vast iron de-
posts of Alsace-Lorraine, now cor plete-
ly lost, the Germans lose the coal basins
Of the Sarre and of Upper S;lesia, to
France and to Poland respectively. An
area twice as large that of Belgium
and d population of between seven and
eight millions is also involved. more
than half of which will be lost. in any
event. even if Germany wins all the
plebiscites, which is unlikely.
Moreover. IL the plebiscites turn
against the Germans the position OF the
present government may be very grave
ly compromised. for the diminution of
German territory and the Gripping of
German industries will arouse all classes
of the populat ton. Even France and
Belgium, which depend upon German
economic recovery for the payment of
he iudemnitleS necessary for their oun