El Paso herald. (El Paso, Tex.) 1901-1931, 1920-07-13
GOE'S FIGHT
IN THE EAST
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
,Uontinued from page II

,Oontinued from page -
in the east. Governor cox may
invade the west successfully, but
based on things as they nre to-
day, he has less than even chance
OF carrying any western states
except California and Montana
1t IS perhaps early 20 make def
mite forecasts, but there IS neverthe-
less, liked opinion in The mind Of
delegate as to what the chances Of
his own party in that state are to-
day. After canvassing numerous
delegates at both Chicago and san
Francisco, asking them not to at
states were going, but merely what
they believed their own chances TO
be, the writer deducted from. both
Democratic and Republican opinions,
a table in which the electoral vote
would seem to be tending in a diree-
ton something like the table with
this story.
As to Doubtful states.
In making up this table no
effort was made 10 consider any
certainties. but Ohio. Indiana, Mis-
souri,, Kentucky, New Jersey, Cali
fornia and Montana were placed in
the Democratic column BECAUSE gov
ernor Cox would. II the election were
held tomorrow, be apt to have better
than an even chance Of carrying
these states either because OF his
wet inclinations or, as in Ohio, be-
cause Of his record as governor.
Similarly New York, and all the
New England states, as well as Illi-
nois and the majority Of the western
states are placed for the moment in
the Republican column because SEN
ator Harding would appear to have
PETER tnan an even chance OF carry
ing them, either because OF his
tendency to derive support from the
dry side OF the argument in the west
ern states or the accumulated resent
ment against the Wilson adminlstra-
ton, which in the eastern states
seem 10 be the paramount reason for
wanting a change from Democratic
TO Republican rule. New York state
has Just such a pent-up feeling whilst
the Iammany stamp on the Demo-
cratic presidential nominee VIII
ALLEVIATE thousands OF women voters
who dislike Tammany not merely for
its own record in politics. but its az
finity with the liquor interests.
Cox Must Fight in East.
Even so. there is no question but
that even supporters Of AcAdoo be-
lieve Cox win make a better run in
New York than McAdoo could have
done, though in the same breath they
contend no Democrat can carry New
York and that McAdoo would have
swept the west Those who nomi-
mated Cox privately confirm the i'm
preston that a wet candidate can
hope for little out Of the west and
must make his fight In the eastern
states.
But even assuming that the
prestige Of Cox will overflow the
borders OF Ohio into Indiana and
corral the labor vote there. and the
wet vote and the following which
such stilful organization as Tom
Taggart, candidate for United States
50 So Hn a#
this year. few Democrats entertain
the slightest idea that any Demo-
cratic candidate could carry Illinois
So with Cox splitting the east and
deriving. little succor from the west,
the table above gives generous
scattering Of states east OF the MIS-
sissippi TO Cox, which together with
California and Montana and the solid
south would not be sufficient 70 elect
him. but would put Harding IN the
white house.
But governor Cox's chances TO
be president OF the United States
are nevertheless even for
change OF only one or two states
in the foregoing table would put
him above 2G0, and bring Hard
ing below the majority line.
Surprising, for example, the third
party dominates LaFollette or any
body else pleasing TO the Non
Partisan league the chances are bet
Republican vote, which Is largest in
the northwest and then the normal
Democratic vote would probably eE-
coed either half OF the Republican
strength. thus givlng Minnesota or
North Dakota or Wisconsin to Cox
II Cox won Wisconsin. his total would
be 267, and II he won only Minnesota Z
he would have z66, either OF which I
total would elect him president
Might Precipitnte Contest.
m rHk - n
BY any means the capacity OF the I
third party for turning things upside /
down Should the candidate Of the /
third ticket carry Minnesota Wis /
consin and North Dakota, which /
would mean a total Of 80 electoral /
votes. the result might be TO give l
neither Cox nor Harding a majority 7
and throw the whole thing into the I
house OF representative for decision 4
unuuestfonably. as things stand to- /
day, the contest Is close one and
the third party movement while in
significant in its effect upon the
eastern or middle western states, has !
potentialities for harm 10 the Re
publican presidential ticket in Wis
consiu. North Dakota and Minnesota
Liquor Issue All Important.
All these calculations are based
upon the assumption that Cox raVors I
light wines and beer for home use
only as proposed by Tammany and /
the other states, which dictated the 4
OF Cox. This is an as
sumption which, in the absence OF L
from Cox himself WIN be I
further intensified by party workers !
eager to corral the largest wet vote I
possible. Should Cox steer clear OF /
the prohibition question and suddenly I
take the same position as Harding on /
Ii. there wiz be nothing especial 10 I
commend him TO the voters OF New I
Jersey or Indiana or Maryland, where I
the inclination Is Republcan-al !
other things being equal Governor !
Cox's chances Of winning the big
eastern states rest entirely. upon his