The Washington herald., 1920-12-23
BUSINESSBOOM
SEEN6M MONTHS
AFTER MARCH
Economic Experts Predict
National Revival Un-
der Harding.
HELP FOR EUROPE
CALLED NECESSARY
Prosperity Overseas Said
To Mean Improved
Conditions Here.
tBy FREDERIC WILLIAM wILE)

II is possible now to summarize
views of national financial and COM
mercial leaders who have been in
Washington counseling with the
government and Congress on the
nations economic plight. They
unite in describing the situation as
serious, but not alarming. America
will ride the storm. The conserva-
tive view does not contemplate
substantial swing of the pendulum
much before Autumn. 1921. Not un-
til six months after President Hard
ing has taken office will the country.
broadly speaking. be back to NOR
malcy."
The period when next years crops
are moved is fixed as the time when
farmers, merchants, manufacturers
and labor once again will be in the
enjoyment of accustomed prosperity.
In the interval there will be depres-
sion, but not necessarily anything
approaching disaster. Sweeping re-
trenchment by the government and
by citizens of all ranks, including
big business" accompanied by tax
revision, will solve our problems. ac-
cording to the best economic minds.
Projected tariff legislation with re-
sultant new revenue will substan-
TALLY cut the national deficit and,
simultaneous sane readjustment Of
taX burdens will help the business
world TO face the intervening nine
months of reconstruction with every
prospect of emerging safe and sound.
Aid to Europe Needed.
1t is the consensus of opinion
among Americas foremost business
experts that the United States in
1921 cannot help itself without first
helping Europe. The Harding cam
paign slogan of America First"
therefore, promises. as a measure
of elementary self interest, to be-
come Europe First" as an initial
Harding adHiniStration program.
All. authoriti-ss OF unbiased mind
Identify themselves with that view
The President elect is having it
having it dinned into his ears at
Marion by every visitor gifted with
broad -visioned economic sense.
The Help Europe" policy, which
really is a Help Ourselves" policy.
does not involve or imply political
partnership. 1t is purely and SIM
ply economic first aid that is con-
templated. 1t will take the form
OF credits and loans. 1t will pro-
vide, largely if not exclusively, for
expenditure in American markets.
Our bankers will get interest and
our farmers and mills will get or
ders. The wheels of Europe will
be set going. and ours will be kept
going. Agreement seems to be uni
versal that unless the United States
deals generously with Europe in
the direction indicated our indus
trial recovery will be slow and in
definitely postponed. IL he listens
to sage advice along those lines now
being rendered him by men of keen
judgment President-elect Harding's :
inaugural address on March 4 will
enunciate clearly the policy herein
foreshadowed.
He will take office amid condi-
tions, domestic and foreign, of al
most unequaled gravity. He is be-
ing urged to come to grips with
them broadly and boldly. He seems
to be assured of prompt and whole
hearted support from the quarters
sinews. They see in it humanitar-
ianism strongly seasoned with self
preservation.
Unity Lacking.
In the interval-the ten weeks
between now and March 4th-little
hope of bettered conditions is seen.
There is thought to be lacking that
unity of purpose between the eX-
ecutive and legislative branches of
the Government essential to deep
seated and effective reforms. Con-
gress apparently will await the ad-
vent of the new Administration be-
fore tackling a number of projected
remedial measures. Then. perspec-
lively, events will march fast in the
direction of putting the national
house in order.
Meantime, and perhaps far into the
new year, business failures may be
expected to continue. Factories may
close down in increasing numbers,
and Unemployment ensue. A fall in
wages is inevitable. Those things
will go on for several months to
come, the experts tell us. There is
no prophesying just when the bottom
will be reached. In the realm of Sc
curities-the stock market-authori-
ties appear inclined to think that the
worst is about over. Values have
shrunken rapidly and a gradual bull
market is forecast. Wall Street, as
is its calculating way, discounted
present conditions and is ready for
an upward trend.
Washington .Blue.'
The captains of finance and indus
try who are coming to the Capital
these days, tell me they find WASH
ington-at both ends of Pennsylva-
mia avenue-"pretty blue" over the
situation. The experts declare wash
ington's remorse comes pretty late"
1t had plenty of warning. but its
Incompetence and impotence" as a
famous New York banker describes
it, were inconquerable." 1t dillied
and dallied, and that is why the
whirlwind now is being reaped. II
fiddled at politics while Rome
burned. ,
Looking across the Atlantic. our
commercial authorities see Belgium
recovering the most quickly from
the effects of war. Germany. IL is
believed, will come hack" with rez-
sonable dispatch. IL France allows
her ito breathe"
Great Britain's troubles are
thought to be concerned mainly
with ireland. She Is able to take
care of her own financial problems.
but those. and all else in the British
r. -