The Birmingham age-herald., 1920-10-16
REPUBLICANS HAVE ALREADY CHANGED
 SIZE Of CLAIMS
Greatly Worried By Democratic Strategy of Pinning All Faith on the League
 of Nations
By LOUIS sEIBoLp

Columbus, O., October 15.-The
 Republican leaders of the doubt
 fui states in the middle west in
 which the final activities of the
 campaign will he staged have
 stopped predicting AwaIk overs. ~Iandslides, and "cinches.'
 The democratic leaders in those
 states--OhiO, Kentucky, Indiana,
 West Virginia and Missouri--ns-
 sert that ''the tide has turned, in
 their favor. Their republican rf-
 vals admit it but declare that not
 enough votes can be won by the
 Cox-Roosevelt ticket to justify any
 confidence on the part of the dem-
 ocrats or doubt by republicans as
 to. the inevitable results.
 The two sole sources for republican perplexity concerns the actual value of the League of Nations as a campai gn issue and the distribution of the
 white" women's vote, which may be Influenced by it eighteen days hence.
 That there has been an improvements, ! ir the democratic outlook is manifest in not only the so-called "doubtful' states. but in all sections of the coun- try and that the more favorable pros pect has been entirely due to the demo- cratic strategy in putting all of their energies in the league basket there is not the slightest room for controversy.
 SURFACE INDICATIONS
 But to offset this awakening of the moral conscience of America" as it is described by President Wilson and Presidential Candidate Cox, surface conditions revealed by obvious condi- tons easily to interpret and recent developments point unmistably to re- publican success after a much closer fight than the republican managers N ere willing to concede a month ago.
 Previous claims encouraged by ef- fective republican propaganda, ple- thoric supply of money, permitting campaign ventures on hitherto un- precedented scale, superior methods of organizing friendly groups in compact units are shown to be absurdly ex- travagant as the actual day of the race draws near.
 Repu ublican estimates of record breaking pluraiities for republican candidates from President to minor off, fees have been withdrawn and pre- dictions of .'safe majorities" put out. The chief reason for this recent con- servatiSm is that a complete survey of actual conditions has revealed the fact that while there has been an obvious increase in the republican vote due to the expansion of the franchise to women, there has also been sub Astantial addition to the democratic vote for the same reason and except in the city no losses.
 Three weeks ago the republicans were inclined to claim almost every northern and western state with one or two unimportant exceptions, as well as the so-called '@border" states fr-l, Al %t~At hod chance of winning at least one (Ten- ressee) and possibly two (North Caro- l:na) of the commonwealths in the solid south.
 NO LONGER EXTRAvAGANT
 Revised republican figures do not assert anything like those extravagant gains. Further than this, information given me by men who have canvassed the situation pretty thoroughly con- cede Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia to the democrats "by small pluralities" furnished by labor support.
 Montana. Idaho Colorado, Nebraska. South Dakota and Utah have become "doubtfur' in republican calculations. Ohio is designated as Uncertain" by the democrats, but is claimed by the opposition by 100000, which means half that figure. The reason for republican confidence in Ohio is that the 150,oo0 colored vote. more than one third of which will be cast by the women of that race" are certain to be cast for Harding.
 Confidence Of the republican man sgers of other states is also predi- cated on the knowledge that this vote will go to the republican candidate. This is not wholly true of Kentucky, Ibdiana- Missouri. West Virginia Okla hcIna and to some extent Tennessee.
 During the visit of Governor Cox these states in which I accompanied him. gained the impression that the eighteenth amendment. which he did much to promote, would proyide the greatest obstacle to his chances for success in several states. The meet ings he addressed in the states named were almost exclusively attended by white men and women, those which Harding has been addressing in the
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