New-York tribune., 1920-12-05

responses from large number of
manufacturers, questioned by The
Tribune on present conditions and fu-
tUre outlook indicate that original
1870 production schedules were in most
cases completed because OF the
record breaking business early in the
year in the case OF those plants which
set their schedules in the autumn.
Not all companies estimate their
production for the year at the begin
uing Of the fall season, however, and
many Of these probably will not full
ill original expectations because actual
buying has fallen of sharply since
June. 1t takes optimism to picture the
future as bright when plants are
operating on part time and costs re-
main on high level despite reduced
selling prices There is nothing def
mite to show that demand Will Improve
next spring, but builders are pinning
their hopes on the next national show
Sales, which were limited only by
production in the spring and early
summer, have declined in the last two
months, both in number and in dollars
received the latter noticeably because
Of price reductions virtually through
out the trade.
Labor conditions are improving with
slightly downward tendency in wages,
but with corresponding advance in
efficiency. Reductions in working
Do expected, although in isolated in
stances the "weeding out" has been
drastic. Where it has been found nec-
essary TO curtail production manufac-
turers have preferred TO reduce the
number Of working days week,
thereby keeping forces intact and
bringing about saving on the pay
roll Several plants have adopted the
hve-day week and others have re-
stF1cted operations to an even greater
extent
Better Outlook for 1924
The outlook for 1921 is bright In
spite Of present conditions, many man
ufacturers insist, pointing to the fact
that ordinary rep laccments and de-
ferred purchases will absorb much of
the production in the first few months.
rproduct'on exists in both
branches of the industry" says G. D.
Wilcox. general manager Of the Com
merce Motor Car Company Limitation
of list prices exists. Tie present buy
ers market knows this. Automotive
manufacturers must meet this con-
dltion to stimulate trade Until they
do present conditions vii obtain"
"Replacemcnt and deferred sales
point to big spring business" said
8 e, Gardner jr. vice-president Of the
Gardner Motor Company.
Il believe the outlook for domestic
sales in 1921 TO be reasonably good,
but or a conservative basis compared
with the spring of 1920" said w. J.
McAneeny, president of Essex Motors.
The labor situat on is probably SIS in
teresting development of the reces-
sion rs any. Reduction of forces by
the elimination Of idlers has rome on
RAPIDLY, but the number of employees
IS far in excess Of the 1913-pre-war-
figures. In fact the increase almost
in proportion to The great gain in pro-
duction IL those years.
Gains Over 1918
The Ford plant now employs $1,000
men at its Highland Park plant and
i2 GOO at the River Rouge plant In
1913 the average employment for the
year was 10000 Seven years ago
wages ranged from S1.75 to SO q day.
and now tie minimum is $6 day.
Moreover, the nine hour dav was in
practice then and the eight-hour day
now.
Unified orders on the books of the
industry have decreased from the high
points OF last year until in some IN
stances now they are rather low In
the case Of the Ford plant untitled or
ders amount to between $4,000 and
10000. whereas Il the peak in 1918
and early in 1919 they reached the vol
ume Of 244.000. Other manufacturer
say that their orders, although not
large. arc sufficient to encourage them
TO believe that conditions might be
In figuring business for 1921. manu-
facturers take hope in studying statis-
tics which show that sales for replace
ment average close TO the total pro
ductlon of cars il the sixth previous
year. For instance. under normal con-
dltlons the trade might EXPECT replace
ment sales of 100000 cars next wear,
as that was the production in 1916 in
round numbers. Exports should. it is
believed, absorb 100000 cars and new
business, even If small. may take 300
100 which would mean total Of
300 000-a slight increase over this
Years. production. On the surface,
then, even if there should be reduc-
lions in these estimatea business
should not be far below this years
record breaking figures
Although the automo've Industry Is
at present passing through period Of
trastic readjustment. great possibili-
10 Hi' seen Oy many NdnU1dCturer rs
in export trade
The demand in Europe and Asia, once
IL is able to assert itself. as result
Of the improved foreign exchange, is
ylrtually limitiess, in the opinion Of
c. A Browneli, advertising manager Of
TIE Ford Motor Company. In dis
cussing the present situation with The
Tribune, Mr. Drownell emphasized tie
fact that his company has experienced
little diminution in demand and that
production was keeping pace with the
1920 schedule as laid out at the begin
ming OF the year
Big Overseas Demand
"After the obstacles in .he path
ways of foreign trade are once re-
moved" he said, eve can sell across
the seas every car. truck ard tractor
we can make. Ii is only question
af the governments of Europe and
Asia getting settled down to stable
basis and then rcarrangement OF the
exchange, and the demand for motor
cars viii be beyond the possibilities
oi all the manufacturers in America
supplying. Europe and America must
be rebuilt and we are about The only
people that can do it.
We consider the outlook for do
mestc sales in 1927 excellent" he
continued. "The demand for our
I roduct Is Just as great to-day as it