Great Falls daily tribune., 1920-12-09
for US and induce harder times and

for us and induce harder times and
more loss.
But we are glad to note every sign
that induces optimism and as we see
it there are good many signs that
the bottom of falling prices has been
touched and an upward trend may
soon be looked for. The role Of the
prophet in economic futures is ris-
ky one and we feel our own lack of
knowledge and vision and wisdom
too keenly to risk attempting such
role, yet we find others with greater
confidence in their insight into the
future and better qualified as experts
who take the view that the worst IS
over in falling prices, and brighter
days are ahead for the merchant and
producer, And right here we pause
to say that their interest is identical
and there is no profit to be made by
the niddleman while the producer is
deprived Of his profit. though we
know that the statement may awaken
debate and dissent.
The Harvard University commit
tee on economic research is the pro-
phet who foretells a better and
brighter day, and they have the dis
tinction Of having predicted correct
ly the course Of prices in the past.
This committee has issued a state
ment on the first of the present
month as il has done every three
months for some time past. The
most cheering part of its present pre-
diction is that by next April the pre-
sent recession in business will have
ended and an upward movement will
begin. It says:
I'VE find no reason il recent de
velopments to change the forecast Of
October S that we have passed the
time in the business cycle when a
financial panic would have occurred,
ii we were to have one" and that
the outlook for the next three to six
months is the Inauguration Of price
recessions among the basic con1mod-
ities heretofore unaffected, the ex-
tension of price revisions to retail
markets, an increase in the number
Of business failures, easier money as
the result Of the release Of credit
by liquidation in commodity markets,
and an increase Of security prices
Further, recent movements Of the
curves Of orr index char support
the forecast that the recession Of
business. now IN progress, will termi
nate by April. 1921"
But we do not need to rely solely
on the economic experts of Harvard
college fer the expectation that
brighter days for the business man
are near at hand. Our leading bank
ers and the capt aims Of industry
nearly all express the same view.
Tie recessions in prices are about
over. Some that have resisted de
clines SO far may still be compelled
by the law Of supply and demand re
sultant on the refusal Of the public
to buy at high prices. to come down
to a lower level Some that have
been unduly depressed to a point
where production cost and reason
able profit are 10 longer obtainable
will come under the same law be
cause the supply will diminish
through non-p production until the
proper level is reached Then we
! may look for stablization of prices
and new era of business prosperity
and wealth production. We note in
recent dispatches that Congress will
/ seek TO help certain producers to
| bring about such rising prices We
! hope they will if they can, but we
| have more faith iii economic law to
/ effect this result than we have III
! congressional law. However. a good
congressional law However, a good
! hope that their confidence in law as
remedy will get more speedy and
! effective realization that it did when
/ the law was invoked to cut down
prices and lower the cost of living.