Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1920-07-29
ESTIMATING THE CROPS
BY FREDERIC J. sHASKIN

WASHINGTON, D. c., July "a
The government sooth-sayers, proph-
cts Of the future, revealers of things
that are to be, are just now coming
to the end of a stressfuI season. They
have again been asked to give the
aSWer, far in advance of a normal
revelation of the facts, to the vital
question: How much food will Amer
ica contribute to a hungry World?"
, They are the men. who operate the
bureau of crop estimates of the de-
partment of agriculture, and it is no
small task to tell in advance the
likely yield, year by year, from all
the farm lands in the United States.
The government, month by month,
as the season advances, complies all
the information that it can get, and
| conclusions that it's experience and
wisdom make possible as to the
amount of wheat, corn, cotton and
other crops that are to come from
the soil. 1t gives this information
to the Wall street brokers, to the
everybody. 1t does this, that the So
| phisicated among the 100,000,000 may
not have an advantage over the un-
| sophisticated; that markets may not
be juggled on false information;
that 6,o whoever buys or or sells these
| which to base judgment of their
! value.
Every month during the spring and
summer the bureau of crop esti-
/ mates issues a statement, in which
it reviews the crop situation, and
| figures from thes& facts what the
yield should be. It finds out as near
ly as it can how many acres have
been planted to the different crops,
! and the conditions under which the
crops are growing. It compares the
| acreage and conditions with similar
the conclusion that the logical yield
under the circumstances should be
this figure or that. It shows how
the estimate compares with the crop
of last year, and with the crop of
the average year. This is necessary
because the consumption Of product
like wheat is CONSTANT and yard
stick must be furnished by which to
measure prospective prices.
An Army Of Reporters
It is an infinitely difficult thing to
find out in April, for instance, just
how many acres have~been planted in
wheat between Maine and Oregon.
215,000 reporters. Each of these is
a man who is close to the soil in his
!, community. Each makes up state
ment, in which he estimates that the
acreage in his community is normal,
10 per cent above, Is per cent below,
or whatever he believes it to be.
Three estimates come in from every
community and the average Of these
three is likely to be nearly correct
estimate. ) If this estimate is too
by an estimate from another COM
munity which is too low. The aver
age of all estimates from all sources
is likely to be quite close to the
facts.
With the acreage determined as
nearly. as possible, the department
asks for reports, month by month,
on the condition of the crop. Is it
normal, or better or worse than nor
NAL? It's 215,000 reporters send in
details on this subject, Acreage and
condition being determined, the crop
probabilities are figured out.
The man in township having
bumper crop or a poor one, might
conclude that the nation would be
overfed or starved, according to his
prospects. The county agent might
draw different conclusions from his
outlook The field agent represent
ing a great state might register
gloom or optimism according to his
Sights. But the individual reckon
ing of any one of these is on too
tive yield of this most productive
of nations might be counteracted by
world conditions.
So the reports form the townships
must be combined with counties,
counties with states, state with the
nation. The whole program must
be repeated every month. Judgment
and knowledge must be applied to
the process at every step. And it
has to be done on schedule time.
The bureau must not go far wrong
because the crop will soon be har-
vested and the actual figures re-
vealed.
The Estimates Are Close
For twenty years the estimates
have, on the average, been within
1-2 per cent of. the crop. Thirteen
times the department has under-es-
timated the crop, and seven times it
has over-estimated it.
When the estimates are ready for
announcement an event of impor-
lance is staged. The government.
announcement of the probability of
a poor yield of cotton or good
yield of rice will have a definite in
f1uence on the market-wil1 send the
price of a particular staple up or
down. If an interested party knew
the facts in advance he could make
4 fortune. Therefore, on announce
mept days, the workers in the bu-
reau in Washington must bring their
lunches because they are locked in
until the figures are finally announc-
49,