Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1920-12-21
u. s. OFFICIALS SEE
BRIGHT OUTLOOK FOR
BUSINESS NEXT YEAR
BY DAVID LAWRENCE
O.eased Wire Service to The Journal)
(CoDyright 1927

American commerce. has attention
been so closely fastened upon the
national business situation. And
while officials in the treasury and
the various government bureaus,
where contact with business is close,
express the opinion that there has
been some justification for pessi-
mism, the universal judgment seems
to be that conditions have been made
worse by pessimistic talk as we'll
as by the hastily expressed opin-
ions of would-be economists in bust
ness mems clubs and other places
where commercial men gather.
In other words, the government
meaning most of the officials of in
fuence in it--has told the writer
that the present depression is in
aFge Part np fac %as
and is being maintained by psyche
logical influences. And incidentally
such predictions as Senator Penrose
has made from his isloation at At.
times ahead do not sit we'll on either
Republicans or Democrats who be-
lieve it is the duty of the members
of congress to cease calamity howl
ing and give attention to the tariff
and other economic measures. which
may afford quick relief in this Pc.
riod of readjustment.
Questions Not Political
However, the questions involved
are Sicb no. III political and the attituds
branches is taking toward the bust
ness situation is political. Just as
many demands have come from the
Democratic south as from the Re-
and the Democratic ADMINISTRATION
has had the support Of leading Re-
publicans in congress in refusing to
sanction wildcat remedies.
The most striking fact. which i'm
here is the almost unanimous judg-
ment that the retailer is blocking
the game" 1t is contended that in
the midst of falling market. when
the farmers and manufacturers find
their wares, the cost of goods sold
nthe retail stores is not materially
reduced. The farmer insists that
he can't take lower prices because
his cost Of living has not declined.
But in defense of the retailer. who
bought his goods at high prices and
feels that he must get rid Of them
somewhere near original cost, the
opinion, is volunteered again and
again that while the retailer may
goods which he has on his shelves,
he cannot afford to take much Of a
chance when rent and labor and fuel
and other. items that enter :nto his
overhead show little sign. f coming
down. If the retailer is blocking
the readjustment therefore it is said
in his behalf that the reasons are
to be ofund in the cost Of clerical
labor. and light and heat and street
car fares and delivery wagons and
Bottom Reached
The trouble about any period of
reimbursement is that all things do
not move downward uniformly. But
such institutions as the federal re-
serve board express themselves as
ever SO much more satisfied with the
situation today than year ago.
Twelve months ago. members of the
board say, they didn't know when the
drop would come or how hard the
fall would be. Now the bottom has
been reached and it is much easier
to deal with an upward curve than
a downward glide.
Not word has come from the fed
eral reserve board to justify the ru-
NOR, but business men hereabouts
are beginning to feel confident that
the board will reduce the rediscount
rate about the first Of the year and
that money then will be more plenti-
full.
Labor naturally is uneasy and is
tions, but laws greater than mere de-
sire are operating in the business sit
uation today. Just as the consumers
have been carrying on virtual
strike for many months, insisting
that they would do without certain
goods until prices came down, so
have manufacturers simply been fore
ed to close down and say they can't
start until wages come down to lev
els that permit business to operate
on living scale.
In the process Of readjustment,
there are many who feel the pinch,
particularly those who refused to
heed the governments warnings and
did not practice thrift in times of
ticed too much thrift ana have insist
ed that prices go down practically
to pre-war levels may be badly fool
ed, however, for the stoppage of pro-
ducetion in many commodities in the
last few months may result in an
upward trend of prices after the first
of the year.
Change for Better Coming
This is not expected to be true Of
many products, but it will be dis
covered when buying is resumed that
there is a scarcity in certain goods
which haven't been manufactured for
some time and naturally the law of
supply anu u6uldHu Will Lletho SO61S
prices high. Psychology plays an i'm
portant part in forcing prices up as
we'll as down.
Change for the better in the entire
situation may be expected after
Christmas. The return of sound
prosperity and stable business con-
ditions cannot be looked for until
some Of the big manufacturing coz
Germs take the initiative. 1t will be
a moment for leadership Wise bSSi-
ness men rarely have missed those
opportunities. But the big fact is
that the worst is over and the whole
psychological current here reflects
an expectation Of new era of prof
it-making in which business will go
forward on a sounder and better ba-
sis. And the feeling is that the era
will begin in the next month or SO
and be accumulated in the spring.
Building operations, Of course, usu-
ally begin in the early spring, but 1t
| is fully expected that throughout the
entire country real start will then
be made in eliminating the shortage
Of houses. Building materials are
dropping. When they get low enough
| to tempt people to build, rents will
naturally come down. Rents have
| been high because new houses have
been few. When rents begin to top
pie, the average working man will be
relieved of one of the most painful
items in his cost of living. The
while situation is interrelated, but the
downward movement of prices will
| have it's greatest compensations in
the first months of the new year.
That's the best Judgment of most
men in the government.
DAYLIGHT Bandits Get