The Washington herald., 1920-12-06
THINKSPRICES
ARE AT BOTTOM
W. T. Fenton, Chicago Bank Head,
Believes Raw Maieriak Are at
Foot Of Decline. i,
REVIVAL IS NOT PROMISED
conteation Made, However, That
Present Range Provides Good
Foundation for Commerce.

CHICAGO, Dec. 5.-w. T. Fenton.
nrst vice president and manager Of
the National Bank of the Republic
of this city, who for some years
past has been especially fortunate
in his forecasts, says c. b. Evans,
noted expert on commercial and
economical conditions, believes that
raw materials. the basic commodity
of business, have reached bottom.
He names. as indicating a new
foundation for our affairs the
prices of wheat, corn, livestock,
copper, leather, hides, cotton, wool.
rubber. These articles do tell an
impressive story Of the situation,
and one which contrasts refresh
ingly with the status of these ar
ticles and many others early in
1920. Mr.. Fenton notes the wild op-
timism of the people a year or SO
ago and an extreme of pessimism
as of the present time. illustrating
, the tendency to run to extremes,
and he alludes by implication to
the principle followed by the cool
est heads in stock speculation of
standing aside when the boom is on,
or letting go securities, and quietly
going in when everybody Is dis
couraged. The stock market itself
surely has given US an exemplifica-
tion Of decline to something which
appears much like a solid founda-
tion, and the stock market is the
entity in our life that distinctively
deals with the future. 1t has been
going down for more than year.
Low Price. . Forerunner.
Mr.. Fenton does not claim that
the low prices at wholesale of lead
ing commodities necessarily prom
Use a revival in business but he
does indicate that those prices have
laid a good pavement for commerce
to travel on. Naturally he and the
rest of US will watch iron and steel
pretty closely to see whether they
are going to join the stampede. 1t
Is the common belief among au-
therities that that class of goods
will not go of very much, partly
because their prices were regulated
downward in March, 1919. and
partly because the United States
Steel Corporation, holding to those
prices ever since, will stand up as
q wall against generalization in
its industry. While others have
been Ginning up and tumbling of
the ladder in the past few months
this giant has Been sitting tight in
his own premises.
No Competition from Earope.
The competition of Europe with
the United States, especially in
fabrics, might be brought up as
against Mr.. Fenton's views, but IL
Is claimed and with a fair degree
of reason that that part Of the
world is in no condition to give
us much trouble. 1t should be
noted that the views just expressed
by this banker relate to raw ma
terials, and this country is distinc-
lively one capable of furnishing
raw materials as compared with
finished goods Every item in the
list Of commodities given above Is
a speciality of the United States ex-
cept rubber, and we, the greatest
consumers Of rubber, will make the
price.
The extraordinary statistics of
the foreign commerce in October
and many previous months of the
war and post armistice periods dis
close Lne degree Oh CoutrOl tndI the
United States exercises in these
matters.
Anybody disposed to take san
guine views of the future must bear
in mind, however, that a low figure
on raw materials in a warehouse is
a long distance from the price tag
on a hat in the show window. There
Is a great labyrinth, too, of ma
chinery, transportation, labor, prof
its, commissions, etc, between them.
The zeal of the retailer for the in
terests of his pocketbook increases
that distance. The buyer at retail
therefore should chasten his spirit
when he sees the low figures in the
wholesale markets. At the best the
average citizen has Ia considerable
period yet of prices which stir
wicked thoughts within him. Work
ers flush with large wages are not
yet altogether free from their craze
for expensive articles. 1t is among
that class that will be found largely
the customers of the retail mer-
chants who expect to unload goods
at something very near high prices
during the Christmas season.