Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial. (Wilmington, Del.) 1878-1928, 1920-07-27
Estimating Crops
BY Frederic ]. Haskin.


eminent soothsayers, prophets Of the
future, revcaIefs of things Chat are To he,
are Just now coming 10 the end Of strests-
fui season. They have again been asked 10
give the answer, far in advance OF nor.
mai revelation Of the facts, 10 the vitai
question: How much food will America
contribute To hungry worldY" They are
the men who operate the bureau 81 crop
estimates Of the Department oi Agr1-
culture, and il IL 30 small task TO tell M
advance the likely yield, year by year.
from all the farm lands in the United
States.
The government, month by month, az
the season advances, complies all the m
formation that il can get, and from that
information draws the best conclusions
that its experience and wisdom make
possible as 10 the amount Of wheat, corn,
cotton and other crops that are 10 come
from the soil. II gives this information 70
the Wall street broker, 70 the dealer, the
consumer, the farmer TO everybody. ~
does this, that the sophisticated among
the hundred million may not have an ad-
vantage over the ungophisticated, that
markets may not be juggled on false IN
formation, that whoever buys or sells
these staples may have the facts upon
which TO base Judgment Of their value;
Every month during the spling and
summer the bureau Of crop estimates
issues a statement in which it reviews the
crop situation, and figures from these
| facts what the yield should be. IL flnds
| out as nearly as it can, how many acres
| have been planted TO the different crops,
and the conditions under which these
| crops are growing II compares the acreage
and conditions with similar. reports from
| past years. II reaches the conclusion
| that tho logical Yield under the circum-
stances should he this figure or that. II
| shows how the estimate compares with
the crop Of last year, and with the crop Of
the average year. This is necessary be
cause the consumption Of a product like
| wheat is constant, and a yardstick must 10
furnished by which 10 measure prospect
i've prices.
AN ARMY or REPORTERS.
II is an infinitely difficult thing TO fine
out in April, for instance, just how many
acres have been planted in wheat betwee1
Maine and Oregon. The department
however, has about 215,000 reporters
Each Of these is a man who is close 70 th'
soil in his community Each makes up
statement in which he estimates that tn
acreage in his community is normal, tel
per cent above, Is per cent below, o
whatever he believes IL TO he. ii re
estimates come in from every community
and the average of these three is likely q
be a nearly correct estimate. II this es
innate is too high, it ls likely 70 be coun
teracted by an estimate from anothe
community which is too low. The averag
Of all estimates from all sources Is likel.
TO be quite close TO the facts.
rcrt- I'm 81
as possible, the department asks for re
ports, month by month, on the condition
Of the crop. Is il normal, or better, o
worse than norTnal7 It's 215 900 reporter
send in details on this subject. Acreag
! and condition being determined, the crol
probabilities are figured out.
The man IN a township, having bump
er crop or q poor one, might conclude tina
the nation would be overfed or starve'
according 70 his prospects. The count
agent might draw different conclusion
from his outlook. The field agent repre-
senting a great State might register gioor
or optimism according 70 ms lights Bu
the individual reckoning Of any one Z
these Is on too narrow a plane. Even N
prospective yield of this most productIv
Of nations might be coJmteracted by wori
conditions.
So the reports from the townships mus
be combined with counties, counties Wit
States, States with the nation. The VINO
program must be repeated every montl
/ Judgment and knowledge must be Al
7 piled to the process Il every step. Al
) ID has to be done on schedule time. II
e bureau must not 90 far wrong because q
/ crop will soon be harvested and the actu
J. figures revealed.
THE ESTIMATES ARE CLOSE.
For twenty years the estimates have,
the average, been within one and "a
per cent of the crop. Thirteen times q
!, department has underestimate the Gro
I and seven times it has over estimated
When the estimates are ready Tor a
noUncemert an event Of Importance
staged. The government announcement
y the probability Of poor Weld Of cotton
0 a good Weld of rice VIII have definite /
6uence on the market-wlll send the pm
of a particular staple up or down. Il :
interested party knew the facts IN a
vance he could make a fortune. Therefor
on announcement DAYS, the workers in Z
bureau in Washington must bring The
lunches because they are locked IN IN
the figures are finally announced at
Quarter after two in the afternoon
telenhones are disconnected. The seal
reports from various States have be
arriving for days They are brought
special messengers from the postofhce, 81
are locked in the safe with their seals 81
unbroken. On the final day they are cs
ried In state TO the Office of the CT
estimator. There they are opened by 7
board on which the secretary himself
sitting, and the compUters set TO wo
making up the averages.
About twelve years ago a member
this crop estimate board consplred with
confederate to tip information in adyar
that they might profit IN the mark
Sitting in a locked room with the sec
tarv of agriculture and his associates,
managed to send forth the signals. II
was done by raising or lowering curta
At a certain point in the window the c.
tain indicated an average crop OF cOtt(
When raised it meant the cIop was abe
the average, and when lowered that
was under the usual yield. This code v
quite simple, and it worked. 4 large 81
|. Of money was cleaned up, but eventua
the ruse was discovered and its perpet
I tors were exposed and prosecuted
= A. a Sn+ rnOuant the secretary of aqFlc