The Barre daily times. (Barre, Vt.) 1897-1959, 1920-01-26
"FLu" EVERY 50 WEEKS.
There Are Some Conditions to Indicate
1t Runs in Cycles.

| 1t Runs in Cycles.
I Some support is given by the recur-
renee of influenza to the theory worked
out last year by two British scientists
that it tends to recur in cycles of 81
weeks This theory or law was appar-
emily based on statistical data, and no
satisfactory explanation of it has been
offered, but if it stands further tests it
should be of value in making arrange
ments to combat the disease
] For reasons as obscure as the law it.
self, but possibly connected with wealth
er conditions, or the season of the year,
a recurrent wave may be lacking or
may be so weak as to be hardly per
ceptible. In this case the danger seems
to be over for 80 weeks more, though
considerable more proof win be needed
] before such immunity can safely be
counted upon.
A precise measurement of the inter
val may not in all cases be easy TO
| make, because when the disease ap.
pears for the first time it's beginning is
likely to be more clearly marked than
upon its return, when it may be masked
for time by a lagre number Of spo-
radio cases. In New York the epidemic
of 1918 made its first appearance about
Sept. 49, when there were 30 cases and
no deaths. An interval of 80 weeks
would bring us to May 7, 1910, when
more or less influenza in mild form
was reported, but no true epidemic oc
Cured.
A second interval of SO weeks would
give Dee. "a, 1919, as the probable date
OF the next outbreak, and this is prob
ably not very far out of the way,
though because of the close and not
fully understood relation between infiu
enza and pneumonia the exact date is
difficult to fix. Reports on influenza did
not begin to appear till fortnight
later, or Jan. 7, but by that time deaths
and pneumonia cases We're about as nu.
merous az on the 18th day of the 1918
epidemic; ii il possible, therefore, that
the law Of 33-week cycle may fit with
an error of but As hours.
DR. Copeland. head of the New York
board of health, still denies that there
is an epidemic, but he does not deny
that one is beginning, and how big it
must be before epidemic is the term for
it is not very important, From an eX
ANIMATION of the figures of 1918 in vari-
Gus cities, it may be stated a. rough
rule that if for several days the pneu
monia cases or the deaths from pneu
monia, or the combined deaths from
pneumonia and influenza, tend to in
crease at q daily rate of about ID per
cent, an epidemic is beginning
The reports of new cases Of influenza
are much less trustworthy, partly be
cause the disease frequently appears in
so mild a form that il IA not reported, |
partly because oyerworked doctors are
often unable TO keep up with their pa
per work, and may hold back eases for
severa ldays. making the course Of the
epidemic appear more irregular than it |
really is. I othis latter cause, in part,
may be due the sensational increase |
in New Yorkshire Sunday
the daily figures have been 90. l40, 462.
6l7, 1882. The figures indicate, how
ever, that returns are being more
made than in 1918, and that
there is nowhere the slightest DISPOSE
ton TO hide the facts.
The figures also bear out DIR. Cope
lands contention that both influenza
and pneumonia are miider than in 1918,
Somewhat misleading, however, is his
of 20 deaths from influenza
and pneumonia on Jan. p, with II on
-he same day of l0l7, normal year;
is fallacy is illustrated in the increase
from 20 TO l02 deaths what
matters in the early stages is not the
,otal but the steady cumulative in
.rease. closely remembling that Of in
crest compounded daily. Yet the ratio
II deaths to eases is small compared
With 1918, and the epidemic is likely to
un its course with a relatively low
Mortality. In 1918 half the eases of
were fatal, this year less
han a third of them. while but 2.6s
ler cent of the cases of influenza cause
leath. as against 3.25 per cent in 1915, /
IN the other hand, the proportion of
cases has thus far been larg- I
r but the milder disease is increasing
he more rapidly Springfield Republi- t
an.