Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1920-12-19
PREDICTS BUSINESS
REVIVAL FOR 1921.
wv. E. Metzger Sees Greater
Employment Than at
Present.


in 1921 is the prediction OF William
E. Metzser, one of the pioneers Of
the automotive industry, a director
Of the National Automobile Chamber
Of Commerce.
Mr.. Metzgers cheerful prediction IL
based on his long experience in many
lines OF business on frst-hand in
forna ton from some of the. greatest
and far-seeing bankers and manu-
fac :urers and on a summary OF
| fundamental conditions just COM
pleted by the Columbia company. He
| expects 1921 to be a year of sure.
period in which a firm foundation will
be laid for years Of prosperity.
| What Merchants Should Do.
! There are two things for every
| business man to do now" says Mr..
| Metzger. ''One is to employ every
fair method to keep his wares moving
for the next two or three months.
ture businessman is, business three
| or four months away, such as natu-
| rally comes with the change of sea-
sons in the spring. This applies to
all lines of business. including retail
| ing of automobiles.
There is nothing mysterious or
alarming about the present situation.
We and all other countries are paying
| for the world war. 1t caused ire
mendous wastage of men. money, eff
fort and resources and all that waste
must be paid for. Just as it takes a
| man who has been ill almost to the
point of death q long time to recover.
so 1t Will take the world time to re-
cover. Some countries will recuper-
ate more quickly than others because
they were not so hard hit by the war
and because they have the tremendous
natural resources for the creation OF
| new agricultural and manufactured
| wealth that will make their conva-
lescence not only easy but quick.
Such a one is our country. For that
reason we should all be glad that we
live in the United States.
There are many signs now appar-
| emit that recovery in our country is
well under way. And those who OBJ
serve conditions abroad know that re-
action of a more favorable character is
prevalent in England. France, Hol-
land, Belgium, the Scandinavian and
other countries.
Car Demand VIII Revive.
"Just because the demand for auto
an example. has fallen off," contin-
ued Mr.. Metzger. does not at all
signify that it will not revive, and
soon. This is the fastest-thinking,
fastest-acting. the 'snappiest' nation
in the world today. and it demands
best accomplishment in the shortest
possible time. That is the funda-
mental reason why the desire to own
a motor car is inbred in the heart of
not been abated one jot by present
conditions. The longer demand is re-
pressed the greater the buying reac-
ton when 1t comes-and that will
be soon.
"Just now demand is slow in all
lines. Home building has fallen OF.
people are doing without shoes coats,
hats. gloves and many other things
ordinarily regarded as necesSi ties just
as long as possible.
s, The result Of this attitude has
been what" asked Mr.. Metzger.
Liquidation everywhere and in al
most everything" to answer my own
question.
ION every stock market we have
seen impressive falls IN the prices of
shares. but without the panic that
usually comes with such a condition
Wheat. corns oats and other grains,
cattle, hogs, livestock. all have fallen
In price. Cotton IL at the lowest ffg-
ure 1t has seen in years. We all know
what happened to sugar. Copper is
down to record low prices. The wool
market took severe tumble. Silk
tumbied. Leather and hides are way
down. Coal. clothing and food are on
the toboggan. You can go through
the smallest towns in the country to-
day and find the merchants there adj
vertfsing sales at price reductions.
dation is the order Of the day. but
the very best judges Of the situation
are agreed that in many essential
commodities it has about run its
course. q
II cite these facts because it is Just
from such conditions as we are now
experiencing that a boom in business
springs. Keep that statement in mind
The world must buy. When it has
made up its mind that it must have
1t can get them are right, It will buy
again and more than ever before"
Confidence Before Revival.
In the opinion Of Mr.. Metzger the
next two or three months will be
breathing spell following the period
of liquidation which is now about
over: In those two or three months
born. And when confidence is once
more restored the revival of business
follows naturally.
AS said before, signs are now at
better" continued Mr.. Metzger. I'VE
have passed through a period Of high
| money rates and have just witnessed
| the first material break in call and
time money in New York. Call money
has fallen from about 8 to 6 per cent
1 anu tiAtO ohi hOooI n W ana q.
1t will not be long before lower money
| in New York will be reflected in lower
rates all over the country.
| Another very favorable sign is that
which comes from our federal reserve
system. For month after month 1t had
to grapple with the problem Of con-
tinued note expansion. Only recently
came the first break with a reduction
in demand for new loans or the con-
tinuation Of old ones. Now for the
frat time the qvafQUn Sh0yUo
sive reduction in outstanding loans.
The New York clearing house has
shown the sixth successive decrease
in loans since October 16, total con-
traction since that date aggregating