The Pensacola journal. (Pensacola, Fla.) 1898-1985, 1920-03-08
Big BUILDING
BOOM EXPECTED
FORECAST FOR 1920 BASED ON
AWARDS FOR JANUARY iNDi-
Gates MARKED INCREASE IN
CONSTRUCTION.
BY PERLEY r. AVER,
Chief PIanner for the Aberthaw Con-
struction Company.

RecessionS in business, with accom-
panying recessions in prices have re-
Gently been predicted III some quar-
tiers. Hope has been expressed of
land labor, with consequent reduced
costs of construction, for whose own
| ers are being advised to wait.
/ If, however, the figures recording
past experiences are to be trusted
such advice Is pretty poor; unless. in
deed, owners are prepared to put their
plans in their pockets, TO be kept
! there, not for two months. but for
two years. In short, 1920 promises TO
F. be. both relatively and absolutely. the
greatest building period that the Unit
4 ed States has ever known.
| History has a way of repeating it
self The volume of contracts let
| in the early months of any one year
constitutes a pretty reliable index of
| the total volume that will be booked
during the entire twelve months The
IF. W. Dodge reports issue for that
| part of the United States of the Mis-
souri, and north of the Ohio rivers
record the percentage of the years
contracts which have been awarded in
each month of the twelve during the
! past ten years, 1910-1919. They are
as follows:
January, 81 per cent; February.
ST per cent; March. II per cent;
April, SIS per cent; May, 90 per cent;
June. 1I9 per cent; July, 81 per cent;
August, 90 per cent; September, 81
per cent; October. 100 per cent; No
vember, TT per cent; December, &c
per cent.
If these percentages hold, as they
should, during the coming months the
u,
ply the prophetic finger with which 10
write in advance the total for 1920.
! 1t so happens that January's award
! ed contracts are reported at s235.00O.-
600. In order to keep on the side of
iconserva tism, let it be assumed that
this will prove TO be 6.5 per cent of
the years total, rather than the 81
per cent of the ten year average. The
result still indicates that the stupen-
dous sum Of s3,62O.000 900 is to be
spent on construction during 1920.
To be sure these billions of dollars
are really billions of fifty cent pieces,
and offer no immediate basis for conf
parison with the actual volume or
CONSTRUCTION in previous years. But,
again, the Dodge reports come 20 the
rescue with n table showing increases
| in building costs since 1910. Setting
4 the costs OF l5ID at lVu pei 1tiAt, S-At
dodge table shows unchanging per-
Icentages through 1915. In subsequent
years the climb proceeds as follows:
] 1916, III per cent; 1917, 1S9 per cent'
1915. 159 per cent; 1919. 100 per cent
Brought to a common denominator
OF dollar value building volume since
1915 would appear thus:
Value in Dollars-1915, $94O,O9O,OOO,
1916. 81 $50, $50 600: 1917, s1,61s,157,OOO;
1918. 81 .eS9, 242, 900: 1919, S2,559, 625,0OO;
1890, SO. $50, o00, 900.
Discount value, or true volume
1915, se4O.Oeo. 900; 1916, s1.15s,Oo0,o00;
1917. s1,165, 100000; 1913, s1,055.00O,-
900; 1919. $3.50. 900 600; 1920, $780,
eoo, 900.
sPotential business based on Janu-
airy awards.
The up-shot of these figures is that
instead of approaching a recession u
building. we are, apparently, on tne
verge of n construction demand 40
ner cent in excess of anything prev
jously encountered.
Whether or not this volume OF CON
struction will be accomplished IS
question whose answer is to be founo
not at all inpressure of demand, out
exclusively in means of supply. mere
EXISTS a serious problem. During 1919
the shortage of materials ana tue IN
certainty of their delivery the IN
sufficiency of labor, and the dlsor-
e,a,ization of transportation consuSut-
"a the most serious impediments 10
tho f,,lfillment of contracts within rea-
sonable limits OF time and prlee.
There is no sufficient reason TO ar
ticipate Improvement in any OF these
particulars during 1920. A good many
organizations, already creaking under
extstinr strains, are likely TO crack
under the added burdens whlch VIII
begin 10 blossom with the spring, ana
win grow and ripen with the expand
ing wear. Not all projects launched
will he brought to n triumphant con-
clusion.
In so far as these notes constitute
n warming. however, they are not TO
he interpreted as a warning against
certain kinds of it. The big, uncom-
plicated, industrial operations will be
carried through close TO schedule
wherever they are entrusted TO organi-
nations with the capital, the nrecham-
cal apparatus, and the human organl-
zation capable OF large scale procedure.
Indeed, If the number of units TO be
constructed could he materially re-
duced in number and proportionateiy
increased IN size, II 10 d Ae'AA
ton that an expansion of Al per cent
in volume could be met.
The work that will lag il small
scale construction which requires spe-
.cisl materials in usual sizes. instead
NJ standardized design throughout;
and which. further, because or the
necessity for meeti, various archl-
tectural requirement.. calls for un-
usually skilled and conscientious work
raanship at all points.
Curiously enough, therefore. the
owner contemplating q big project
should be encouraged TO go ahead with
liz; the one with a small one should
be counselied to caution and to de-