New-York tribune., 1920-03-08
Optin1ist and Pessin1ist
Predict Rally IN Stocks
Conspiracy Of Gloom Main Unfavorable Factor in
Financial Situation, Cheerful Broker Says; But
Another Forcsces Crash as Aftermath of War

TWO brokers whose views arc WILDLY
= sssDectsd, arguing from diamstri-
|cally opposite points Of view, in set
ting forth their Views on the outlook
for sscurity prices. reach the same
conclusion. Ths one contends that 4
conspiracy Of pesslm3sm has been In
3ecting fear into the financial situa-
tton, but prsdicts that under the
stimulus Of continued industrial
prosperity stocks. after their recent
n. M E. nssss The = ssta;
aster, especially IN Europe, ara real.
believes that security prices Viii eoar
higher, because he says that the un-
favorable factors have all been dis
counted,
Robert s. winsmsrs, Of Billings,
Olcott 4 Winsmors, In . statement
to The Tribune, setting forth the
optimistic view, predicts that "stocks
win begin to reflect. once mora that
continuation Of industrial activity and
prosperity which IL % certain a. the
coming Of summer"
And tSs h. S2g22es Ss22ssn& esds Ma,s - Il
eonsluson hs 1essaas stool 'n,s MARKET sn'lis Il
we'll liQuidAted. Our banking CO condi.
tons are probably improving slowly.
They are likely to continue to improve
for several months. II 50, there should
be- material Improvement in the
prices Of stocks and bonds"
Old Fashioned Economies
Mr. Winsmors, in developing his
fashioned as to believe in tho opera
tions Of the archaic laws Of supply
and demand and production and con-
SUMPTION. am extremely optimistic
al to tho outlook for American busi-
ness.
1T, tndustrially, We have reached a
peak, It II the one recently referred TO
by Mr.. Baruch-the peak Of scarcity.
Obviously the restoration Of the
worlds productive processes 10 under
way and therefore The end of the era
Of minimum production and Of abncr-
mally high prices is in sight: But 1
dustrial and financial well-being is
dependent upon the continuation Of
scarcity and high costs. And more
over. since the increase in the worlds
production must be a matter of
growth more or less slow, the decline
in prices must also be graduaN If
there is to be any such collapse as
that now being predicted with so
much enthusiasm, it will not be the
result Of natural causes, but rather
of unnecessary fright caused by the
loose talk In which so many blatant
theorists are now in6ulging.
1n fact, the present widespread
propaganda Of pessimism seems to me
which we are confronted. Its under
lying purpose is obscure, to say the
least. It is incredible that at a time
when constructive effort should be the
order Of the day so many men Of polit-
ical and financial prominence and
power are bent upon forcing contrac-
tion-not merely arguing sfor it, but
threatening and practicing restrictive
measures in a way that must make for
diminished production and for timidity
1t has become popular to liken the
country's business to q man who has
climbed to the top of steeple. He
cannot go higher, he cannot remain
stationary for long. and therefore ne
alton it should be added that a great
crowd Of Leading citizens are gathered
in the street below shying high-inter-
est-rate bricks at the climber, screech-
ing to him Of his danger and advising
him to let go Immediately so that the
inevitable end may come quickly. In
deed, some Of them are even predicting
the time Of his end to the minute and
urging him to throw his pocket money
to impoverished Europe before he
drops. But the reason for the crowds
eagerness for the catastrophe does not
appear in the parable.
Dethroning the Raven
"In due course the threats will cease
and the pessimism will disappear. 1t
will be remembered that, although the
Raven croaked "Nevermore" great
many times, he finally disappeared