The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1920-07-27
TOPEKA STATE JOURNAL
Information Bureau
FREDERIC J. HAsKN, Director.
Washington. d. G.
ESTIMATING THE CROPS


government soothsayers. prophets of
the future, revealers OF things that
are to be, are just now coming to the.
end of a stressfuI season. They have
again been asked to give the answer.
far in advance of a normal revelation
OF the facts, to the vital question:
How much food will America con-
tribute to a hungry world? ?" They
are the men who operate the bureau
Of crop estimates of the department
OF agriculture, and 1t is no small task
to tell in advance the likely yield,
year by year. from all the farm lands
in the United States.
The government month by month,
as the season advances, complies all
the information that il can get. and
from that information draws the best
conclusions that its experience and
wisdom make possible as to the
amount of wheat, corn, cotton and
other crops that are to come from the
soil. It gives this information to the
Wall street broker, to the dealer. the
consumer, the farmer, to everybody.
1t does this. that the sophisticated
among the hundred million may not
have an advantage over the unsophis-
ticated, that markets may not be
juggled on false information, that
whoever buys or sells these staples
may have the facts upon-which to
Every month during the spring and
summer the bureau of crop estimates
issues a statement in which it reviews
the crop situation and figures from
| these facts what the yield should be.
It finds out as nearly as it can how
many acres have been planted to the
different crops, and the conditions
under which these crops are growing.
1t compares the acreage and condi-'
tons with similar reports from past
years. 1t reaches the conclusion that
the logical yield under the circum-
stances should be this figure or that.
1t shows how the estimate compares
with the crop of last year, and with
the crop of the average year. This is
! necessary because the consumption of
| yardstick must be furnished by
| which to measure prospective prices.
An Army of Reporters.
It is an infinitely difficult thing to
find out in April. for instance, Just how
many acres have been planted in
wheat between Maine and Oregon.
The department, however, has about
215,0O0 reporters. Each Of these is
man who is close to the soil in his
community. Each makes up a state
ment in which he estimates that the
acreage in his community is normal,
10 per cent above, Is per cent below,
or whatever he believes it to be.
Three estimates come in from every
community, and the average of these
| IS likely to be a nearly correct esti-
mate. If this estimate is too high it
| is likely to be counteracted by an
| estimate from another community
| which is too low. The average of all
| estimates from all sources is likely
| to be quite close to the facts
| With the acreage determined as
| nearly as possible, the department
| asks for reports, month by month, on
| the condition of the crop. Is it nor
NAL, or better or worse than normal :?
| Its $4,000 reporters send in details
on this subject. Acreage and condi-
! ton being determined, the crop prob
abilities are figured out
The man in a township, having a
! bumper crop or poor one, might
| conclude that the nation would be
| overfed or starved according to his
! pEosp The county agent might
| draw different conclusions from his
outlook. The field agent represent
ing the great state might register
| gloom or optimism according to his
lights. But the individual reckoning
of any one of these is on too narrow
! a plain. Even the prospective yield
| OF this most productive Of nations
might be counteracted by world
| conditions.
So the reports from the townships
| must be combined with counties. coun-
| ties with states, states with the ma
| ton. The whole program must be
repeated every month. Judgment and
| knowledge must be applied to the
process at every step. And it has to
be done on schedule time. The bu-
reau must not go far wrong because
|the crop will soon be harvested and
the actual figures revealed.
! The Estimates Are Close.