Keowee courier. [volume] (Pickens Court House, S.C.) 1849-current, 1920-09-22
a TALK on THE COTTON CROP.
Trade and Financial Conditions Arc
Against Intelligent Forecast.

The following letter concerning
the 1920 cotton crop. sent out by
J. S. Bache & Co., OF New York, has
been handed to The Courier by one
Of Oconccs young business men in
tcrested in fair price for the one
great staple crop OF the South. He
considers this one Of the most i'm
partial reviews Of the situation that
he has seen. and 1t seems to us to
be a very logical statement. No man
knows at this time what the ultimate
crop figures will be, nor the price
that it will bring when marketed. 1t
appears to us, therefore. that a SIM
pie statement Of belief on the part
Of one in position to have anaIyzed
conditions generally from wide
business view range, may we'll be
taken as one OF the most accurate
reviews OF any unknown problem. es-
pecially when such review Is given
totally in the abstract, viewing only
conditions as they are in their effect
upon the crop and considering as
hest one can the possible eventuali-
ties that may come by reason Of GER
tain conditions that seem apparent
or are reasonably in prospect. SUCH
an impartial reveiw. 1t seems to us.
is the one printed below:
j. S. Bnche & Co.'S Letter.
We are entering the second half Of
September with a cotton crop Ger
tainly three weeks late, and have
had almost continuous cloudy, show
cry or rainy weather for six or eight
weeks throughout the belt. The plant
up to Aug. 25th had recuped from
distressingly low start to reason
ably healthy promise. In the mean
time weather conditions have re-
mained cloudy, showery or rainy ut
a period when 1t would have been
best to have warm. clear weather.
The plant has undoubtedly deterior-
ated decidedly since the last govern
mcnt condition figures were tabulat-
Ell. This moist, cloudy weather has
still further intensified an already
late start and has retarded maturity,
and undoubtedly multiplied the pos
Sibili,y OF boil weevil damage We
do not believe that any intelligent
forecast OF the coming crop is posi-
bic at this time. Clearing weather,
with late frost, might probably
give rs good yield Of reasonably
desirable cotton, while continual
ton OF the moist weather. with an
early frost, would unquestionably re-
suit in poor yield and low grade
crop. We, therefore. believe that the
forecasts Of the crop should be defer
red until the middle Of October.
The severe decline from prices pre-
vailing two or three months ago calls
for serious consideration. as the
price Is generally believed to be now
below the cost Of production, which,
If continued, will undoubtedly result
in very drastic reduction in cotton
acreage for another year. In the
meantime, cotton goods have declin-
ed to a greater extent than has the
raw cotton, and the trade demand
for things made OF cotton now is
practically nil, while it Is currently
believed that forward sales of raw
cotton for shipment out of the COM
ing crop are perceptibly less than at
this time last year. Speculation Is
dormant and generally believes in a
decided further decline in cotton.
Trade interests see no encourage
mcnt to take bullish view on the
market in the face Of present trade
and financial conditions.
Under the circumstances It seems
ABSURD for any one to attempt to
forecast the futu.e course of the
cotton market.
lf the crop is small and the far