The Birmingham age-herald., 1920-08-16
RUSSIAN SITUATION ! IS ONLY CAUSE FOR GLOOM IN OUTLOOK
Crop Reports Are So Boun- tiful as to Cause Rosy View for the Com-
 ing Months
By THEODORE H. PRICE

sharply during the past week if it had not been for the disturbing news from
 Europe. The monthly estimate of the re-
 partment of agriculture indicate an im-
 provement in nearly all the crops, and the prospects of harvests whose value is es- ] timated by competent authority at s2s,- 00,ooO 900, should put to route the last reserves of pessimism. The indicated yield of wheat is 795. GOO 0oo bushels; ths corn crop is estimated at 3,00S o0O, 600 bush els. which has only been twice exceeded
 The forecast for oats is 1,402, ,0O0 1000, for barley 196,000,000, for potatoes, white and sweets 503.000.0o0, and for apples 2l3,oo0,- COG bushels All of these figures either exceed or closely approach the highest records
 Through natures bounteous generosity we are thus provided with a substantial basis for real prosperity which could not De undermined were it not that the suc- cess of the soviet armies in Poland has inspired many with a vague fear tha. Trotsky's boast that ''all Europe will Dc bolsheviki within a year" will be made good, and that the prophecies made in T German Look called The End of Western Civilizatict" were approaching funili-
 ment.
 PREPARED FOR WORST l While common sense and the precedents of history are all against the acceptance | of such gloomy view. it Is well that we should consider the worst that we may 1 be prepared for it. The soviet govern. ment. elated by the success of its armies seems reluctant to make terms, and dis posed to continue on the aggressive. The frontier Of Germany is neariy open 10 attack by the reds, and France and England are in disagreement as to the policy that should be pursued. What many fear, but are almost afraid to talk
 about, is that the bolsheviki will shortly invade Germany, that the discontentsd German people will meet them half way
 and that the area of anarchy ana com
 munism will be immediately extended to include all of the former German em- pire and a large part of the territory that used to be called Austria Hungary. If such a deluge should engulf Europe it is taken for granted that France and England would have to fight in order to check it, and thus we are brought face to face with the possibility remots though it be. of another great war in Europe.
 f%cpinsons are divided as to whether the United States would or should permit her self to be drawn into such war, but here again let us face the worst and ask what would happen to American business if we. too. were impelled to take up arms again.
 WOO S1OoII olAONAA The first effect would be a shock. for people are always terrified by the impact of war. But 1t seems clear from our re- cent experience that the secondary re- suit would be what it always has been. an increased demand for everything thai we produce. more borrowing, more irl- flation, higher prices great speculation and. an era of fictitious prosperity which would make us temporarily insensible to the pain and distress, personal and finan- ciai, that we might otherwise feel immedi- ately and would be certain to feel ulti-
 mately as result of the struggle This it may be said is a shortsightei and material view. but is it worth while to look far ahead when we are facing the prospect of the end Of the world We have confidence to believe that even If such deluge should occur the ark of America would find a resting place upon the Ararat of democracy. and that we would go forth to people the earth again with a race that would demonstrate afresh the value of education individual ism and government by the consent of the governed.
 Having thus considered the probably impossible worst, which loses some of it's terrors upon close inspection, we may look the opposite way and ask ourselves what would follow a peaceful solution of the Europe an problem or the collapse of the soviet regime and the re-establish- ment of a humane and just government in Russia, which will become more likely as soviet arrogance successively arouse*
 more determined opposition. To this question . partial answer may be found in the facts that have developed and tht
 feeling manifested during the past week. A stea dier tone and greater confidence Is almost everywhere to be noted despite the growing of the Russian war dogs
 COMMODITY DECLINES HALT The decline in most of the commodity
 markets seems to have been halted.
 though sugar and coffee are both lower.
 the order and precipitance of Its decline.
 is again tending upward, while some im-
 proyernent in the demand at retail Is re-
 ported.
 In the stock and bond markets the bar-
 gain prices of many good investment se-
 curities are attracting buyers, and there
 is distinctly better feeling on the stock
 exchange. This is especially true of rail
 way securities. in view of the increased efficiency of car movement which is be-
 coming more evident. the huge volume of freight awaiting movement and the 'n-
 creased revenue which the roads will re-
 ceive for moving it. The strategic valus of various roads in relation to possible combinations provided for by the Esch- Cumrnins act is also being considered. Thus it was suggested last week that the New Haven ought to buy one of it's pres ent connections, that the Santa Fe might acquire road with which 1t already exchanges considerable traffic. and that various other lines could be put together l 10 their mutual advantage. That the rail- road map of the country will be entirely retrawn during the next decade seems certain, and the changes that may be made are sure to inspire speculation. MONEY IS EASIER
 Money ir easier. Quoted rates are lnominal,y maintained, but there is a dis position to shade them which may be due in part to the action of the comptroi-
 Ter of the currency in asking the national blanks which have been charging more than ic per cent to report the facts to him. Failures for the week totaled fT. against 12S last week, ll5 last year and l6l, 202 and 2s2 in preceding years.
 No real improvement in the condition of the cc tton crop seems to have oc- cured though the market has been sensi- tive to .he seasonal reports of detertora- tion. In the textile markets there is still an atmosphere of depression. but t lis notorious that the dry goods trade is either a prince or a pauper. and sud- den reversal of form there is about due. Bank clearings reported by Brad streets are 5.9 per cent less than last year. for the country as whole. but outside Of New York. where dullness of tCe.ti.seA .. Page rwe)