Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial., 1920-06-22


Brussels Of the approach of succcssiui
termination of n Franco-Belgian military
convention gave unmistakable evidence
that the two neighbors most menaced
bv Germany are taking no chances ana
losing no time In preparing Tor new
German attack Moreover, the terri
forial reductions which G erInany has
suffered as a consequence OF the waf
materially diminish the numerical super-
ority cnjoyed by the kaisers armies SIX
years ago.
By the Treaty of Versailles Belgium
emerged from her position of guaranteed
impotence The events OF August, l9if'
proved that her neutrality was a mere
figure of speech; it demonstrated t'tat
Belgium would have to take proper pre-
cautions to defend herself. lad bei-
gum. i'm 1914, possessed an army rs large
m proportion TO her population and rs
well trained as Switzerland il may hc
questioned whether the Germans Would
have vcntured on the Belgian boulevard
But in 1914 the field army Of Belgium
amounted TO only 100 900 in population
az 800. 600, while Switzerland was able
20 call twice rs many troops with less
than half the population, France and
Belgium together mobihzed l,l50,Ouu III
time for the opening Camralgn, when
resulted in the defeats at the frontiers
and the victories at the Marnc and the
User. Germany sent against France ana
Belgium rather more than j. ,4uOOtO IN
the first rush and several hundred thou-
sand more during the weeks following the
Nlarne The difference between The Two
armies was in part lridgcd hv tho British,
who engaged 10000 ut Mons, l20, 600 at
the Marie, and had used above 1000
bv the crisis of tho battle OF lprCs. Bel-
rium. then. had an establishment too
small, given her dangers and the french
strength, which represented maximum oi
French possibility.
Any new military convention with
France would necessarily assume two
things, a material increase IN the Belgian
army and coordination Of French and
Belgian plans Beyond ELL question the
Belgian army could bc doubled IN strength
and thu. French and Belgian armies would
have at least strength Of l.25O.0N upon
mobilization BY contrast Germany,
with a population of 6SO0N.0OO III i9i4,
has not moro than 6000t.00O today AMI
Will fall to IS coo. 600 II the plchiseIte IN
Upper SilCsa is won hy the Poles. Since
Germany Will have to keep troops IN the
cast to watch tho Poles. II may be doubt
ed If she can hope 70 have any advantage
of numbers in the west, even il the British
STAY cut.
But the strategical condition has also
greatly changed in the west. German
military establishments have beer pushed
back bcvond the Rhine and All the fortl-
fications on both banks of the river
destrcved Moreover, the French have
rcgained Metz Strashourg and IhionVtilc
with theirhstrong forts, while French and
rot German representatives. now operate
the Luxembourg railways. during tie
next two decades at the least. that Is until
the allies have evacuated the lett bank
of the Rhine and the Germans have time
10 build new Notifications course tor
hidden Nv the Treaty OF NcrSahlos},
German mobilization Will have 70 take
place east of the Rhine ard the first shock
must come near the nver that IS, far IN
side German territory
Holding Metz and Thionvillc. withtheir
network Of railways and highways, as
4 centre. with Iicgp and StrashoUrg on
their fankS. the French with the Bel
gIans viii lie in a far different position
from what they held SIX years ago
French armies will mobilize IN strict con-
junction with Belgian and concentrate
behind the Rhine the SarTe, the Ours and
the highlands east of Liege in the very
first days of the war Moreover, the
Belgians, in acquiring F.upen and Nal
medy, have taken from the Germans
those railroads, prepared hy the Germans
wears in advance for the great drive
through Belgium toward PARIS.
France and Belgium VIII still be unable
70 match numbers with the Germans, but
in addition to Europe and France, there IS
the French colonial empire which supplied
full million Of soldiers IN the last war and
will be capable OF making a far larger
contribution in the future for the colonials
have fully proven their value as shock
troops and the French plant TO greatly
expand their native forces in the near
future Therefore, on the numerical
side there is little chance that Germany
can immediately establish any decisive
advantage or hope for victory, save after
8 long protracted war OF attrltion, Like
that which finally accomplished her own
ruin in 1915.
Acting in close cooperation, favored
by greatly improved strategic situation,
due 70 the extension of both French and
Belgian frontiers and the transfer Of
Luxemburg from the German to the French
influence, there seems to be no reason
why Belgium and France should not be
able to stop the next German attack be-
tween the Rhine and their own frontiers,
even II II Is able to pass the Rhine.
Moreover. in such a conflict the Polish
army would be certain to attack in East
Prussia and Pomerania, as the Russians
did IN 1914 so Germany would be again
faced with a war on two fronts, nor would
che have any such advantage in preparation
es gave her the first successes in 1914
What Britain would do remains prob
lematical. The British have not vet
agreed 10 stand by France IN case of q new
German attack Their promise to stand
by France if the United States did fell
when the Senate failed to ratify the IN