New-York tribune., 1920-10-31
and
House Gains
Are Assured
Cox Sure of Only Twelve
States in South, With
1876; Doubtful, 35, Says
Tribune Correspondent
Ohio and Indiana
Regarded as Safe
Maryland and Kentucky
May Leave Democrats;
Missouri for Senator
By Carter Field

---
BY Carter Field
WASHINGTON, Oct. 30-Hat-
ding ard Coolidge will be elected on
Tuesday by an Overwhelming ma
jority. both Of popular and electoral
votes.
This victory will carry with it an
Increased Republican majority in the
House, and probably will result in
the gain of at least two seats in the
Senate.
A last-minute survey of the stu
alton, based on information from
every state normally regarded as
doubtful, shows conclusively that
Cox and Roosevelt are absolutely
only sure Of the eleven states COM
prising the Southern Confederacy
and Oklahoma.
800 for Harding
To this total of 1876 electoral
votes, the Democratic nominees have
a fighting chance Of adding Ken
tucky and Maryland in the East and
Montana, Nevada, Utah and Arizona
n the West, which would bring their
grand 'otal to III.
This leaves $50 electoral votes
practically certain for Harding and
Coolidge. Actually, there will be
little real surprise if Kentucky,
Maryland, Montana, Nevada, Utah
and Arizona should Join the Har-
ding procession and roll up the Re
publican electoral vote to 395.
1t is. 6 course. within the realm
Of political possibilities that Cox will
carry one Of the states making up the
total Of ESQ votes put down as sure
Tor Harding. But two days before
election no one is willing to bet even
money that Cox will carry single
state making up that total The best
obtainable political opinion in every
one O. those states is that Harding will
carry them, and political writers even
from Democratic newspapers. who have
made pers nal Investigations on the
ground. cOncede that Cox has no
caance in any one of them.
Maryland ard Kentucky Doubtful
Maryland and Kentucky are doubt
'ui because the Democrats have raised
ne race issue. wnich ties botn states
sloSeiy 10 the Solid South. 1t has not
Oeen quite as successful. in MARYLAND
as IN kentucky, and for that reason
harding has slightly better chance
o. carrying Maryland than Kentucky.
both states may go for Harding de
ople II, bat so many persons in each
VIII vote because of prejudices dating
back to tie Civil War and reconsuruc-
!loh rather than because Of present
issues that K is very difficult to esti-
mate what will happen.
Utah depends absolutely on the Nor
mon Church. Nobody knows precisely
~hat 1t Will do. Polls and ST aw votes
SHOW decided leaning towarcN Har-
oing, and the probability is that Sena-
.or Reed Smoot, one of the twelve
apostles Of the Church, will be re-
stecteo. But il is generally admitted
.hat the Church can deliver the cleo
I .oral vote OF the state to either candi-
date it chooses.
The recent visit to Utah of william.
Nhoward TAFT is believed to have helped
f.Smoot and Harding, as the leaders OF
Tue Church always have admired Taft
ana followed his judgment. Utah and
vermont were the only two states that
gaVe TAFT their electoral votes in 1912.
ghc Church has been strong for the
League of Nations, and it is thought
iaits appeal for Harding and Smoot
shereIore would be particularly help
Montana Drift to Harding
Montana is normally heavily Demo
f.atlc state. but it is aorn this year by
l me Nonpartisan League, which cape
paced It's men on the Democratic
ScEet. Polls there show heavy drift
70 Harding.
Nevada is SO strongly Democratic
ana has been since the free silver days
mat It is put in the Democratic column
sutomatlcally. However. reports are
VT uu,Nting in that friends of Senator
Shar es b. Henderson are trading with
.he republicans TO save him. promising
20 vote for Harding If Republicans will
vote Tor Henderson. National Republi-
f ffah headquarters. caring nothing par
rcuiarIy about Nevada's three electoral
so'es but great deal about the Sena-
/ this.
a hard fight is being made for Har-
s'ng IN Arizona, with outside interest
fSs"USsfing more on the effort of Ralph
e. +. lameron TO defeat Senato~ Mark A
r. N the list Of states given to Governor
Ssa there is only one about which
FSase heard serious Republican claims
t.st Is Tennessee. There Is no doubt
""' the K publIcans will make an ex-
tContinucd en- page three)
AsSssrICE DAY.!
Sa,s 'can Legion posts requiring Are
H. eAAnis signals or other ceie bration effects
IL &ors~1 wire OF telephone. Paine's Fire
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