Pine Bluff daily graphic., 1920-01-06
Difficult to Guess
 as to Germans
 Economic Outlook

Berlin, Jan. ,. 3.-Thc spectre of the enormous emergency levy On property which threatens drastic ally to reduce German industrial fortunes in the next ten years makes it difficult for Germans to forecast the economic outlook of their country for 1920. Leaders in financial, political and social circles are divided in their opin- ions of the measures for national relief proposed by Matthias Erz- berger, minister of finance.
 There is widespread belief among financiers, bankers and f. nancial writers in Germany, that 1 if two of Erzberger's plans are put into effect, Germany will face a future overcast with black clouds, if not actual ruin. The most important of these two meas ures is the emergency levy on property which financial writers assert will reduce industrial for tunes of 10,000,000 marks to less than 3,000,000 in a decade. The second measure is the income tax, which, it is claimed by some, will "beggar every modest fortune as we'll as every great fortune
 Bankers say it all comes down to this, that America must come to our aid"
 They wish comparatively small, direct credit and disapprove of the much discussed interna- tional loan which, they believe. would saddle the debts of England and France nthe United States and thereby, perhaps, reduce the amount of credit Germany might obtain.
 The opinion appears to be gain ing in Berlin financial quarters that Erzberger's days are num- bered and that he can not long continue to exert his influence on the majority who pay least and therefore support his financial policy
 Berlin writers declare that Ger many's political future depends in the last analysis upon the work ing out of the peace treaty and that until this document has been consummated in all it's technical details, Germany will be unable to locate her fresh starting point. This is regarded here as the crux of the whole situation and Ger mans expect the situation to re- main acute until IS has been ac- eomplished.
 Admits Bolshevist Gains. Germany's more conservative political leaders frankly admit Bol- shevist gains at the neXtelection They say the Reds may capture , 50 seats instead of the 22 which they won a year ago and that they may poll 5,O00,0o0 instead of the 2,750,0oo they obtained in the last national election. The con- servatives, however, assert that the Independent, Sparticist and Communist clements will become less popular as the opportunities for work increase in Germany.
 Political leaders say that indi- cations point to an indefinite post ponement of the elections on the ground that the present govern- ment, on the strength of it's pop ular mandate, is entitled to cor 1 tinue with a program of social ization at a pace in keeping with the nations economic recovery. It $ pointed out also that the new liberalism may satisfy itself with lifelong president as substi- ute for constitutional mon archy.
 It is agreed by German indus trial leaders that the German workers are weary of striking and hat the labor situation has been improved so far as the shortage of ,oal and raw material permits The authorities say that German industries are working an average of perhaps four hours daily and hat this is the limit possible with the present under-supply of ,oal. When the coal situation lm- proves it will be possible they say, 70 make real industrial begin hing with raw materials.
 Germany's recovery and pro. yress during the next year is left 5y Germans to depend on whole succession of "ifs." Many of hem believe that if Erzberger drains German industries with his axes, there is little hope of their recovery. The same critics de- Hare that if the Entente does not ighten Germany's load little bit, he nation may be driven to Con- ,nunism. If German industry can not recover some measure of it's former efficiency, they say, the world will be the loser in the end.