The Richmond palladium and sun-telegram. [volume] (Richmond, Ind.) 1907-1939, 1920-12-14
STABILITY TO
HINGE ON sum
OF INDEMNITY
Mark Sullivan Says Amount
German Reparations Linked
Up With Prosperity-Is Un-
certain Factor.
MAY ANNOUNCE SOON
BY MARK SULLIVAN.

Thought has DSeu pressed upon me SO
often and from sources of such weight
that 1t seems to call for widespread
knowledge.
am told by business men, bankers,
and other men of practical affairs, as
well as by men whose standing is on
the theoretical side of economics and
business, that there is one uncertain
factor before the settlement of which
no progress can be made toward bet
ter business conditions. That factor,
they say, is the uncertainty of the
amount of the German. reparttions.
1t Is not a question of the size of the
reparations, but question of know
ing what 1t Is, of making the sum
definite. 2.'-'-' ~'
They say that there can be no eco
nomic stability in the world and no
business prosperity until Germany
knows the amount that she is to pay,
and the allies know the amounts that
they are to receive.
Cause Of Instability.
This factor, they say, is the pri-
mary cause of instability. There can
be no stability in foreign exchange
IN the relative value of dollars,
pounds, francs, marks, lire etc.-until
this factor is fixed. So long as there
is instability of foreign exchange,
there can be no stability of foreign
trade, and until foreign trade can flow
smoothly and upon assured lines,
there can be no domestic industrial
or business prosperity. This thing
underlies all question of taxation
tariffs, and everything else fiscal in
its nature.
The amount that Germany must pay
is of little Importance compared with
the making of this amount a fixed
sum as against an indeterminate and
unknown sum. So long as it remains
indeterminate it is a blind factor in
place where should be one of the most
solid foundation stones in the struc-
ture of international trade. ,-~~. .... !
Source Of Trouble.
If a maleyolent Intelligence should
search the universe Of economic evil
TO find precisely that thing which is
most destructive to economic stability
and to the human comfort and con-
tent which rest on business stability,
these men say, it would probably in
vent the device Of placing one of the
nations of the world under the burden
of an indeterminate debt, in which
the creditor has the power to increase
portion as the debtor shows capacity
to pay. The moral and economic evil
Of such situation and it's capacity
for trouble-making on a worldwide
scale are indescribable
The decentralization it works in the
debtor is greater than the disorganiza-
ton is brings to the creditors and to
disinterested third parties as we'll.
Did Not Fix Amount
Due to causes too complex to enter
into here, causes which at the time
seemed insurmountable and made the
consequences excusable, the amount of
the German indemnity was not fixed
by the peace conference. The peace
conference merely asserted Germany's s
obligation to pay, but did not fix the
amount she must pay.
The fixing Of that amount was left
to what is known as reparation com.
mission. Nominally, the mandate of
the peace conference to this commits
sion was that it should fix the sum
before May 1, 1921, but actually in
the language of the treaty, this man.
date is so hedged about with so many
qualifications that the reparation COM
mission can delay, and may delay, the
fixing Of the amount until much
later. '''.-.
A conference OF the Allied powers
has been called at Brussels this
week, to discuss the German repara-
uons. How much this may mean and
how much progress may be made can
only be known later.
Business Men Anxious.
The business leaders of the allies
are fully aware Of the desirability,
from business standpoint, of an early
determination of the sum that Ger
many must pay, but other considera-
tions cause some of the allies, espec-
tally France. to be tolerant of post
poning the fixing of the amount. So
long as the amount of the reparations
remains indeterminate France retains
certain privileges with which she is
reluctant to part.
This point, of course, assuming that
the theory is correct has the strongest
possible bearing upon the foreign
policy which the Republican leaders
ara inst now formulating.
SO long as We are absent from the
conference Of the allies. we are in no
position to use our influence toward
Fastening the date when the amount
Of the German reparations will be
made known.
Is FIRST step.
This date will mark the first pro.
Eress toward equilibrium. and will be
the first step toward the resumption
OF commercial stability. In repara-
ton as restIessncss under present
conditions becomes acute, the new
Republican administration will be
under Increasing pressure to make
progress toward concrete pro-
gramme for our International rela-
tions.
It would seem almost ridiculous to
begin to speculate so early on just
when the pendulum that recently
swung so far in favor of the Repub.
licans will begin to swing back. but
when Il does begin, the cause will
probably be economic distress and, in
ways perhaps complex and indirect,
will nevertheless pretty surely be re-
lated to what is here set forth.
Copyright 1920 by the New York
Evening Post, Inc.)