The Wheeling intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1903-1961, 1920-09-23
HIGH : FULLERTON WILL dope" WORLDS SERIES
AND COVER THE GAMES FOR THE MIELLlCENCER
Best Known Baseball Writer Explains His Mathematical
System of Gauging Opposing Teams and foreeasting
Daily publication Ending Before Series Starts and
Will Furnish Wire Service on Series Itself.
Nv HUGH s. FULLERTON

BY HUGH s. FULLERTON
Dnrc. crushed t" Garth, Will rise
again Thu time FOR doping the World =
Series . here
In tarklirn the doping Of the series
tins rNl | have been compelled, oF
changed conditions. to 'hanE" We
nEUrrS io conform with the new '"hdi-
ti"uS IN baseball Although IN" dope m'l
the season hats worked OUT with amhZ.n ;
certainty IN almost every club IN the
two leagues. the fact that tn" pitchers
ar" under handicap and that IN" pail III
uSr - EVclirr. Comp"lS IN" 10 hI''r me
relative values or defensive ana "hehs-
~" work.
Before starting this series Of dope
ARTICLES want 10 diSahuSr tn" minds OF
the fans Of the ldc: that tho" liHur"S
ar, my own opinions or prcd'ctuns
am nat In the business OF prcuict'ns
any thing am engaged in working %" E
on purely mathematical basis; ,ne ' H.
llhuol Or one team beating another. II"
figures arc based entirely upon the "N''
cal averages OF tho season.
| start doping Il series without an 'ut,
what the final hGurrs Will SNOW or VIII
prove. I have. OF course my own oplh-
ion ~ TO which team Will wln--Dnt l hhN
has nothing To do with IN" mathematics
Very often the dope proves exactly the
contrary to what ! desire ana mop" II
will Half the time am ro" lhE lnr me
team ME!tn, inc u'Fc ''''"''' wa $3.50
WIN.
Nothing But Arithmetic Involved
have. during twCnty-Scrcn year
study Of baseball evolved n system "t
apply inE the official figures If bal! play :
rrS Ia results. There Is no n"crom 'h'E;
slight Il hand. guCSsw"rk or S''"n"
sight nor hHv" ! any m"nNtarhrS WIN
which 10 deceive YOU. II ~ SIMPLY ''c
plp.w cid arithmetic which Betty R"tk-
ley taught mr UP in II" liillSh"r"
Schools (not too successfully cithrrl az,
piled to the IiEurCS showing me "h''hhl
averages Of the players ana IN" teams
I work IL out In detail II IS no. mail
ihlr All I claim for II IS that II shows.
better than anything Else. the compare
tive strength OF ball clubs and that II ~
far more aCcurat" than any dope on
horse racing can be.
tcricuS II IS not. II Is an !hN"lN"d
problem in mathematics. l often nave
wished that some OF you mathematical
sharps who IND figures easy would r"nl',
to the rescue when the air gets lui 90
Scvkns and mines and get :" multiply
inr backwards. You can work II out
perhaps better than l can if You SIMPLY
take the system. Probably you Will NOT
agree vita my rating OF some ihnlNlnult
players All right, II You don't. JUST
substitute Noul own liHureN ana WORN u
out for yourselves.
: Now wha, | want YOU to do is 10 dep"
Thus out with me. The thing "" want -
know is which team Will win IN" SERIES
W. must start with two premises; hrSt
that the series is absolutely honest.
winch I bcliev" il will h". Second, hat
each player will. IN this series. play
close 10 tho standard he mas shown him
self capable OF during this and preStd-
ing seasons.
Eddie Collins and others or m" WHITE
S0x played far below the standard th"E
set for themselves We know that the
Reds played just about che kind of ball;
had just about tho kind or pitchinS ana
hitting. they figured to have ana tNai
they won because the White SoX played
below their standard.
Opponents Alter values
We cannot. Of course, attempt 10 pre-
dict any accidents or illnesses. II was
impossible. last spring. to forecast Ea!
Chapmans death or Koprs broken
thumb.
All We can do is to take each player
figure what he is capable OF doing IN the
N"id AMI what he ought I" hat aEainH;
,hr kind Of pitching he mus, face.
Here. let me explain another miS!p
prchcnsIor about this dope. II is not n
comparison of ball players. II IS not, IN
the least. for this reason: that the vaiu"
of any player depends not so much upon
his own ability in hitting as upon ne
kind Of pitching he must face. Bahe
Ruth. hitting against George Tyler.
probably would figure lower than would
ILode Paskert hitting against Tyler We
know Ruth is Il better hitter. but IE'eT
Is one Of che few pitchers who can stop
him dead, while PaSkert can hit TNIcr
hard so when the figures lndicat" that
one center flelder Is better than another.
they mean ne Is better against N" de-
Tense he must attack.
This fall ] am forced 10 alter the
values considerably. hope. before the
y 4
tlonal Commission will positively en-
tighten the fans as 10 what ball IS "a
be used. Fans and players alike should
know this. For instance. If very
lively ball is TO be used. Il hard-hlttlnS
team would have a big edge over.
light hitting one with strong pitching
and heldlng With a dead"r ball the
team possessing the best defensive
work has the advantage.
am assuming, that the ball wn en-
has been standard during III" last TWO
months OF the season will be used. X
seems n ball fair enough tor DO
teams. although a trifle livcliCr IMAM
the balls used during the last three or
''"' How To Figure It
Now come on and dope with me
Here is the system:
Start with basis Of 1000. II tn" A.,
lacking strength OF team eNact'E
equalled the defensive strength Of The
be scored
It stands to reason that The attack,
ing force is greater than the "':cns''e
strength How much" Heretofore J
have figured attacking strength At O4'
and defensive strength AT $50. on me
basis that the total strength IL lnOV
This season the attacking force mas
been increased by the livelier ball ano
the rules handtCapning pitchers nav
worked out. on basis Of runs scored
and bases advanced in proportion 20
nut outs. n new scale in which me NJ
lacking valu" Of team is 6S4 anu 'he
defensive value ZIG. 7 nm certain THESE
values hold good 80 far as runs "'''.
This season t,v all Major League teams
20 have tested two Minor Leagues
and working backwards and then com:
pairing results with their averages,
find tho figures apply closely to them
as we'll
Complications Set In
Now. IL the attacking power or any
team IS 6S4 the attacking va ue OF can
individual is ono ninth or ina OF ~
This is. Of course, theoretical: based on
the assumption that each batter Is
are not What We want 10 do Is 10
establish basic position value. Theore,'
ticallv each of the nine players Is equal
each rating &c From that basis we
must work out the value oil tte ihul'iu'
ual In the position. .
That is IL m" average batter Is ="
what is Cobb" What is Ruth; To &c
this We take tn" players records IN MT
ting. IN base running in long, distance
hitting. in runs scored. in getting bases
on bnlls-in every department OF the
gam" and see how much above ne
average he is.
For instance. n III" average batter -
$50 Il add the cipher to express small
er degrees OF difference. rs il makes nc
difference so long as W" maintain the
ratioD I ind that Ruth. on this sea-
sons work rates bl2--thc highest rat
inE 7 ever have figured any man.
You see tho system"
l,Fa ei,.s