The Rock Island Argus and daily union. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1920-1923, 1920-10-29
BY DAVID LAWRENCE.
Especial to The Argus.)

The coalition of the west and
south which gave Woodrow Wilson
his victory in 1915 was a new COM
bination Of electoral votes. Pre-
viously the big eastern states
New York, New Jersey. Indiana,
Ohio and Illinois together with
New England, we're sufficient to
tell everybody on election night
that the race was over.
The big question this year is
whether there is any combination
Of votes whereby Governor Cox can
win the presidency. Senator Hard
ing has been picked by most every
body to win chiefly because Of the
traditional habit of America to
change administrations every few
years. But the Democrats have
managed to force the League Of
Nations to the front as an issue
with remarkable success in the last
Is days and any calculations made
by the writer or anybody else as
early as Oct. l are necessarily sub
ject to revision at the last mo-
ment.
Vefifies Estimates.
When this correspondent visited
every state west Of the Mississippi
with one or two exceptions, he re-
ported after an investigation of 30
days that there were only few
states-Utah, Montana and Nevada
wherein the Democratic nominee
for the presidency had a good
chance. In order to determine
whether these states are still safe
Tor Cox and Whether any Others
have been added to the list, the
writer has sent kilograms to almost
every man in the west. in whose
judgment he can place reliance and
has asked that the replies be sent
in a specified code so that men
working on Democratic newspapers
or in the Democratic organization
or those employed in the Republi-
can camp would have no hesitancy
in expressing over the telegraph
wire their own confidential and in.
nermost judgment.
These kilograms are coming in
and the results will be embodied n
tomorrow's dispatch. AS for the
situation east of the Mississippi
river which has been examined in
person by the writer in the last 81
days, several factors stand out as
extraordinary:
Congestion at Polls.
First, the heavy registration OF
women has made it doubtful wheth-
er in some states everybody will
have chance to vote in the limited
period that the polls are open. On
account Of the congestion at the
polls, especially in states where no
provision has been made to handle
the crowds. many votes will not be
cast at all.
Second, the negro vote in north
ern states is better organized than
| 1t ever has been. In some of the
border states feeling is not alto
gether pleasant over the way the
negroes have been mobilized by the
Republicans and it is not altogeth.
er certainty whether in cases
! where the Democrats control the
election machinery there will bt
time enough for the negroes to vote
though in certain cities where tht
Republicans have control just tht
reverse is apt to be the case anf
many whites may not get chance
to vote. The race question unfor
ltunately enters into the calculation
Of certain important states.
Woman Vote Uncertain.
Third, the true effect Of the en-
franchisement of women through
i out the nation is the most uncer
tain quantity in the whole situation
Politicians profess to know how tn
women will vote but they don't
No political leader in all the state
that the writer visited was able t,
produce a canvass Of the feminin
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