New-York tribune., 1920-05-09
Oil Experts Doubt
Forecasts of Early
Petroleum Famine
New Fields Will Be Found
to Supply Needs When
Shortage Threatens; Gain
in 1920 ProductionLikely

Although production of oil in 1920
will probably show an increase over
the high mark of last year, it Is gener-
ally admitted that consumption is run
ming ahead of production to an alarm
ing extent and the old prophecy of ex-
haustion some years hence is again
heard. Little credence is placed in the
they agree that the statement serves a
useful end in warning the public
against waste at the expense of future
generations.
at may be questioned whether there
IS any real foundation for the state
ment so frequently heard, that the oil
fields of the United States are near
exhaustion, and this is giving concern
to business men," says "The Oil City
The newspaper is optimistic and points
TO the possibilities of new fields in
South America and renewed activity in
old fields of Europe.
For the reasons that there always
has been sufficient petroleum in sight
and new fields have been discovered
before any real danger of exhaustion
has appeared "The Derrick" takes little
stock in the pessimistic talk. at may
be that there is q purpose behind this,
in warning the people to be careful not
W Waste luIS NatuaOiS pIONuSt, ~ say
however "If this be the reason, it is
a wise one" The fact that there is
sufficient for present need should not
be used as an excuse for waste, it says.
The paper contends that new fields
will be discovered as the need increases
and the present supply fails. 1t points
out that previous to the war the pro-
duction ran so far ahead of consump-
tion that supplies were stored up in
such quantities that the amount was
becoming a burden to the consumer
and manufacturer. The war depleted
stocks, however, and retarded produc-
tion to great extent. For this reason
and because increased industrial pro-
duction and new enterprises sprang up
to consume greater quantities OF oil the
cry of exhaustion has again been
raised.
Oil Production Increased
IN spite of handicaps, the newspaper
says, production of oil increased in
1919 more than 25,ooo,oOo barrels.
Continuing, it says:
at is equally as certain that another
increase, making a new high record,
will be witnessed this year. Whether
it will be sufficient to meet the ex-
mains to be determined. Some of the
worlds supply will come from the re-
vival of the fields of Europe and Asia,
and there will be new sources from
Central and South America. In the
mean time it may be stated as a fact
that more states will be added to the
list of those producing oil, and that
the potential possibilities of petroleum
in this country are unknown factors.
"But the talk about exhaustion is not
new. 1t began fifty years ago and
lHI fN~
another fifty years. AS far back as
The Century, in which ne touched on
this subject as follows: What is the
future of the petroleum business 2
With productive territory virtually
confined to few small strips and spots
in six counties in western Pennsyl-
vania and New York and an inexor-
able law Of rapid exhaustion applying
to all wells the time would seem close
at hand when this great blessing, the
cheap light of the whole civilized
world, would fall ct will be noted
that Mr.. Smalley referred to its light
ing power only and not to its use as
fuel or motive power.)
New Fields Always Found
"'Still the history of the business Of
the short period since it began, has
been one of constant expansion. New
fields have invariably been discovered
when the yield of the old ones began
to decline. Oil men have confidence
that there is plenty of undiscovered
territory yet to be found. Providence,
they say, would not bestow so great a
gift upon mankind to withdraw it when
it's use had become universal, and the
needs of the human race for its bene-
fits the greatest.
Scientists may say that this view is
based on an optimistic or pietistic
theory of the universe that will not
stand investigation. SO far as the great
stores of fuel and light the coal and
the petroleum, are concerned, 1t has,
however, held good thus far. They have
not failed. If the ell of the rock is
destined to run dry, the chemists will,
perhaps, be ready by the time it is ex-
hausted to produce a cheap illuminant
for ol'
at is curious to note that the last
suggestion is still a common one, for
a recent article on the subject says:
Scientists are striving to develop 8
substitute for coal and oil for fuel and
power. They believe that the forces in
atoms can be released and applied to
commercial uses A Canadian scientist
thinks the nuclei of helium can be used
TO Hberate hydrogen from water and
requirements
at is to be hoped they may succeed
in their efforts, but at the same time
the world is assured of supply Of
petroleum so many years that the
scientists will have plenty of time to
develop their plans"