Evening star., 1920-01-31


doubtedly be described in retrospec
as a period of political, financial anC
economic confusion. 1t is doubtful
whether even today it would be safe
TO say what will be assigned by fu'
ture history as the real trend ant
achievement of the twelvemOnth. Its
events have been made up TO a very
unusual degree of conflicting move
ments and unfulflled expectations
In general way, it may be asserted
that neither international trade MOI
the movement of prices of Commodi-
ties nor the course of the stock ex-
changes-nor. il may be added, the
legislation of our own Congress-has
been at all what experienced judge:
would have predicted a year ago
Summary of Events.
The groups of events bearing or
the financial year may be thus sum
married.:
% The signing of the treaty OF
peace at Paris. with the league OF ma
tionS covenant: its acceptance by Ger
many: its ratification by the leading
entente belligerents of Europe; 1ts
rejection by the United States Senate
after prolonged and acrimonious de-
bate during which many amendment
and reservations had been proposed
During all this time formidable
effort of Russian bolSheviSm to over
run European effort defeated IT
Germany in the early spring ana IN
Austria in the summer and repudi-
ated politically in England ana france
in the autumn.
Uncertain Prices a Factor.
(2) Prolonged uncertainty of tht
whole world as to whether prices OF
commodities were to fall rapidly from
their wartime heights or rise fur-
ther AS result. decline in the
Economist average of English prices
from 6094 at the end of last year &c
SOS in March. and of Dun's American
average from 1886 to 1T.224 in the
same interval. Following this decline
however. a steady and rapid rise
which brought the average of Decem-
Der to $685. in England and to 2o.l'o 1T
the United States. which compareC
with maximum wartime averages OF
62e1 and 1852, respectively. In con
neetion with this movement of prices
an increase in outstanding paper cur
rencieS during 1919 of $1,000, 100000 II
France. of $500. 900 000 in Germany
of Sl75. 1000, 900 in England and ol
s225.o00. 900 in the United States.
Extraordinary Expenditures.
(3) In connection with this rise OF
sonal expenditure. not only in the
United States, but in many parts OF
Europe, due both to abnormal wal
profits of one part of the community
and abnormal war wages in another
Persistent demands for increase in the
pay of labor. bringing the advance
since 1914 in many industries. but not
all. to larger ratio of increase even
than the increase in cost of living
Resultant conditions in which skilled
and partly skilled laborerS in many
trades were earning more than the
average worker in the professions
Recurrent and far-reachinng strikes
to exact further advances. in which
conflicts the governplents had to take
a hand. the steel strike. the bituni-
nous coal strike. and the threatened
1rainmens strike being the notable
instances in this country.
(4) Slow recuperation of industry in
Europe. the hindrances in England
being chiefly trade disputes and or
the continent displacement of labor
trial plants. Hesitancy in this coun-
try until it was seen that the decline
in prices was checked: then rapid in
crease. which. however, did not re-
store the maximum of war time, the
largest American iron production OF
1919 being the 3,S02.000 tons Of Jan
uary, with a decline to 2,10S000 II
May, as against 3.50S.000 in october OF
1916.
Increase in Trade Volume.
(5) Very great increase in the VOL
ume of international trade. a conse-
quence OF scarcity of supplies caused
by the war. of the turning of pro-
duction from war purposes to peace
purposes and of the release of ship
ping from transport service: Eng
lands export and import trade COM
bined in eleven months being SO 900. =
100000 greater than in 1918 and the
American trade $4,000. .00O, 900 greater
Increase of S1.4O0. .O0O, 900 in our own
exports during the same eleven
months and of $500. zoe. 900 in our sur
plus of exports over imports. both
breaking all records Increase OF
s1,S00.000.000 in England's exports
also. and a decrease of nearly $500
100000 in her surplus of imports over
exports. but an excess of imports by
England in her trade with the United
States alone, greater by S61 100000
than in 1918.
y. y. Exchange Depression
CO. AS a consequence partly of this
large trade Indebtedness of Europe &c
-he United States. and partly of fur
ther very large expansion of Eurepe's
paper currencies, a highly sensational
on these European markets to a leve
far below the worst of war time, the
rate on London falling in December
"a per cent below normal parity, or
Paris So per cent and on Rome 62 pei
cent with rates on Germany and
Austria at a discount of more than 81
per cent and the rate on Russia not
Quotable. Much smaller depreciation
of exchange on London. however. ir
such markets as Stockholm and Am
sterdarn, where sterling was quoted
this year at much more favorable
rates than in war time Continued
refusal of Europe TO release gold il
settlement of trade indebt edness. eX
cept for Germanys gold shipments u
pay for food. Export by the Unite'
States chiefly TO South America an(
the far east. of 5000, 900. 600 gold
caused by the facts that import
largely exceeded exports in our trad
with those countries, and that New
York exchange on their markets wa
adverse to the United States. II
connection also with the oriental ex
changes export of S2e0,000.000 silve
by the United States. following las
years export of s197.000,00O the sill
ver being largely obtained throus
melting up and selling $3.50 90
worth of silver dollars held by tn
Treasury; the rise in price OF silve
having made the silver dollar wort
intrinsically s1.0S or higher.
General Decline Noted.
Cd A general decline on the stoc