The Oakley herald. [volume] (Oakley, Idaho) 1908-1961, 1920-12-17

ls problem which cOnfronts the
farmer every fall. On the one hand is
the buyer offering figures based on the
quantity and other conditions of the
market, the tightness of money, and a
number Of related conditions which
may depress the price. GA the other
he is confronted with the expense of
storing, the shrinkage in volume, pos
sibility of rot and the uncertainty Of
the number of bushels of potatoes
which will be carried over by farmers
throughout the United States to be
thrown into the market during the win
ter.
1t is problem that has to be decid-
ed, because the crop is there. 1t is a
problem that the farmer must decide
for himself.
Lowest in October.
Prices naturally are lowest in Octo-
Der, when the crop is just out of the
ground. A study recently made by the
bureau of markets of the United States
Department of Agriculture, covering
the last ten years, shows that the av-
erage price rises very slightly until the
LIST Of January, and then more rapidly
until the LIST Of March, another sharp
advance taking place between April
planting season and June.
These are only averages, however,
and may be varied by many conditions
which the farmer has to study largely
for himself Reasoning about future
prices is unusually diifisult at the pres
ent time.
A study of the geh~fhl tendencies of
the market, whether up or down, must
be based on facts pertaining to the
country as a whole. The supply may
be less than usual in a certain county,
but II the total crop is sArge the size
of this total crop will have tendency
to lower prices even in this country of
short production. Prices in that county
may be high, but they will not be so
high as they would have been if the
total production OF the country had not
been so large. That Is, the conclusions
drawn from the broad and general In
formation may be modified by local
conditions In each section, but 1t re-
mains true that each of these sections
will be influenced by the up and down
tendencies which move over the coun-
try as whole. A grower should know
the general situation in order to make
proper allowances for local conditions,
and he should not only study the po-
tato market but should consider the
size Of the sweet potato and other
food crops which may influence the de-
mand and consumption OF. white pota-
toes. He must watch, too, the trend of
general prices. especially food prices.
If general prices should fall decidedly
then the price Of potatoes might be
carried lower than the years produc-
ton would warrant
The accompanying chart shows the
farm prices of potatoes, averaged for
all sections of the country on the first
OF each month from October, 1910 to
September. 1920. In this table COM
parison of the December and the fol-
lowing March prices show that in 1917
and 1918 the March prices were lower
than the December prices, and in 1912
and 1914 they were slightly higher, al
though, allowing for shrinkage and
other losses of storage, they really
yielded smaller return. That Is, In
all years having q production of more
than 4O0,0O0,OO bushels, the March
price was either lower than the De-
cember price, or the increase was neg
ligible. When the production has been
less than 375,0OO,C00 bushels. the price
has tended to increase as the season
advances. The farmer may judge for
himself whether the same factors will
apply to the present years crop, which
is estimated at 100000 bushels by
the bureau Of crop estimates, and he
may apply his own conclusions in de-
Gliding when to sell his potatoes.
In comparing the prices Of one year
with those Of another, allowance must
be made for the rapid decrease during
the last few years In the purchasing
power of the dollar. For instance,
S1.61 per bushel In 1919 and so cents
per bushel In 1911 does not mean that
potatoes were twice as valuable at the
later date. The increase In price may
have had nothing to do with the pota-
to business 1t may have come from
the general rise which increased the
price OF wheat, clothing and machinery
as well as potatoes. The effects Of
the general increase in prices must be
eliminated from the calculation.
Potato Exports Small
! Before attempting to analyze the re-
lations between the figures of pro-
| duction and stocks on the one hand
and prices on the other, 1t should be
mentioned that potatoes are not ex-
norted to any great extent, seldom