The Rock Island Argus and daily union. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1920-1923, 1920-07-27

Estimating the Crops.

so the Reports from the townshine
must be combined with countiss
counties with states, states with ~
nation. The whole program mns.
be repeated every month. Ind,
ment and knowledge must no 40
piled to the process at every stap
And It has to be done on schedn,i. i
time. The bureau must not m &c
wrong because the crop will SOON =.
harvested and the actual figures -
vealed.
The Estimates Are Close
For 20 years the estimates h,v.
on the average. been within Id
per cent Of the crop. Thirtess
times the department has under
estimated the crop. and seven tims.
1t has over-estimated it.
When the estimates are ready "a, E
announcement an event of INN,
lance is staged. The goyernmen,
announcement of the probability ~
poor yield of cotton or a roos
yield of rice will have a defnit.
influence on the market-will sens
the price of a particular staple nm
or down. II an interested partv
knew the facts in advance he coma
make fortune. Therefore. on, an
n0uncement days, the workers n
the bureau in Washington mus
bring their lunches because thew
are locked in until the figures ar.
finally announced at 2:l5 in the an
ernoon. All telephones are disconI
nected. The sealed reports from
various states have been arriving
for days. They are brought by spe.
cial messengers from the postofice
and are locked in the safe with their
seals still unbroken. On the final
day they are carried in state to the
office of the crop estimator. There
they are opened by the board on
which the secretary himself is sit.
ting, and the computors set to work
making up the averages.
About II years ago a member n,
this crop estimate board conspired
with a confederate to tip informa-
ton in advance that they might
profit in the market. Sitting in a
locked room with the secretary Of
agriculture and his associates. he
managed to send forth the signals
This was done by raising or lower.
ing a curtain. At certain point
in the window the curtain indicated
an average crop Of cotton. When
raised it meant the crop was above
the average, and when lowered that
it was under the usual yield. This
code was quite simple and it work.
ed. A large sum of money wa.
cleaned up, but eventually the ruse
was discovered and its perpetrators
were exposed and prosecuted.
| News Is Eagerly Awaited.
| AT a set moment the secretary OF
agriculture and Leon M. Estabrook.
chief Of the bureau, come down.
stairs with the monthly estimate.
Reporters for the various press as.
soclations, newspapers, and broker
age houses are waiting tensely for
the word. Telegraph and telephone
connections are already made "a
New York, Chicago, New Orleans
and London. The word is given, the
copies are grabbed and the scram-
Bile against time begins. Around
tickers in thousand Offices. in
stock exchanges all over the world
are many individuals waiting nery.
'ouslv for this information. For.
tunes are made and lost on II. II
speeds men and women on the road
to wealth or brings about their IND
poyerishment.
Once in the last few years tn
report was a half minute late be
cause something got the matte
with the multigraph at the depart
ment. An anxious crowd was wait
ing about the cotton exchange Il
! New Orleans. One of the receivinI
, telegraph operators leaned over +
, another and asked him what b
/ thought the figure representing tn
estimate in bales would be. Th
teiegrapher wrote his guess on
r piece of paper. A broker, cranin
5 his neck, saw that figure. H
thought it was one that the opera
, tor had just received, and he bur
: rled onto the floor of the stock eI
e change and played his supposed in
v formation. His mistake cost him
lot of money.