Evening star., 1920-07-12
Doubtful States Not Definite.


In compiling the foregoing table no
effort was made to consider any of
the so-called doubtful states as GER
tainties. but Ohio, Indiana Missouri
kentucky New jersey, California
and Montana We're placed in the demo
cratic column because Gov. Cox would.
II the election Were held tomorrow,
be apt 10 have better than an even
chance of carrying the states either
because OF his wet inclinationS or, as
in Ohio. because of his record as
governor.
Similarly New York and all the
New England. as we'll as Illinois and
the majority Of the western states. are
placed for the moment in the repub-
lican column because Senator Har-
ding would appear to have better
than an even chance of carrying them
either because of his tendency to de-
rive support from the dry side of the
argument in the western states or
the accumulated resentment against
the Wilson administration which in
the eastern states seems TO be the
paramount reason for wanting a
change from democratic 10 repub-
lican rule. New York state has Just
such a pent-up feeling, while the
Tammany stamp on the democatic
presidential nominee will alienat @
thousands of woman voters who dis
like Tammany not merely for its
ity with the liquor interests.
Cox strorG in New York.
Even so. there is no question but
that even supporters Of McAdoo be-
leve Cox will make better run in
New York than McAdoo could have
done. though in the same breath they
contend no democrat can carry New
York this year and that McAdoo
would have swept the west Those
who nominated Cox privately confirm
the impression that a wet candidate
ca n hope for little out in the west and
must Ike his fight in the eastern
states Even assuming that the pres
tige of Cox will overflow the borders
of Ohio into Indiana and corral the
labor vote there and the wet vote
and the following which the orpani-
zation OF Tom Taggart, candidate for
United States senator. can mobolize
for the ticket this year. few demo
Gratis entertain the slightest idea tha,
any democratic candidate could carry
Illinois
So with Cox splitting the east and
deriving little succor from the west
the table above gives a generous
scattering of states east of the Mis-
si:slppi TO the ohio governor which
together with California and Montana
and the solid south, would not b,
sufficient TO elect him. but would put
Harding in the White House.
CoN's Chances Even.
But Gov Cox's chances to he Presf.
dent of the United States are never.
theIeSs even. for Il change of ONLY one
or two states in the foregoing table
would put him above 266 and bring
Harding below the ajority line. Sun
posing, for example. the third party
nominates La Toilette or anybody else
pleasing 70 the non-partisan league
the chances are better than even thu,
they viii spht the republican vote
which is largest in the northwest. and
then the normal democratic vote would
probably exceed either half Of the repub.
lican strength. thus giving Minnesota
oT North Dakota or Wisconsin to Cox
II COX won Wisconsin. his total would
lie 267, and if he won only Minnesota
lie would have 266. either of which
totsis would elect him President
On the other hand, that doesn't by
any means. end the capacity of the
th-Td party Tor turning Things upside
CONTINUED ON Iage ,, Column II :