The New York herald., 1920-12-06
JAPAN SEES LONG
SHIPPING DULNESS
President Of the Nippon Yusen
Kaisha Expects Depression
to Last Until 1923.

TOXIC, Nov. 3.--Baron Rempei Kondo,
president of the Nippon Yusen Kaisha.
is of the opinion that the shipping de-
preston in Japan will continue until
about 1923. when he expects the situa-
ton to TAX favorable turn.
The past Prosperity \ in the shipping
trade" said Baron Kondo. may be
described as a golden age, and it can
not be easily repeated in the future.
Owing to the reaction from the boom.
the freight and charter markets are
going down. / wonder If there will not
be further decline The falling Oft
in foreign trade and the increase In
the number of ships have caused many
vessels to be tied up, and this is the
case both in Japan and foreign coun-
tries. 1t is not impossible that there
may be a further increase in the num-
Der of tied up vessels.
During the war many ships were
sunk, and, moreover, a considerable
number of merchantmen We're requisi-
toned by the various governments for
war purposes. This naturally caused
deficit in the tonnage available for
merchant transportation. and all gov
ernments and all ship owners en-
deavored to build new ships. When
peace was restored, however, the requi-
sitioned ships were released, and these
vessels, together with the newly built
ships, greatly increased the supply Of
merchant tonnage. On the other hand.
foreign trade declined in volume. and
thus the shipping situation has sud
denly become depressed
"In order to determine by what
al, rf ca
is excessive, we must wait for the fur
ther course of events in the shipping
situation, but, roughly speaking. 1t may
be said that the supply is in excess by
the new tonnage which America has
built Unless a normal relation is re-
stored between the supply and demand
for tonnage it is impossible to expect
a revival Of activity on the shipping
market
Japan has about 100000 tons of
oceangoing ships, and when other yes
sells are included her total tonnage ex-
ceeds 100000 tons. When this Is ccm-
pared with the pre-war tonnage OF 4ooot
or 10000 tons IL oceangoing ships We
cannot but be struck by tho great de-
velopment achieved by the country S
shipping trade. but at the same time II
reminds us OF the extent to which the
shipowners are being affected by the
disappearance OF the factors which cof'l-
bined to produce the war period pros
perity. The companies which made am
pie provision during the period of pros
pcrity for future reaction VIII be able
to tide over the difficulty, even II the
depression continues, but not small
number of shipowners stand on weak
ground or have not prepared themselves
against the reaction.
1T is true that ALL expected reaction
would come sooner or later. but their
opinions as to when that would occur
differed greatly. Both the ship powers
and the state should make best efforts
to maintain the shipping position of'the
country. During the war the Govern
ment earnestly encouraged the construc-
tion OF merchant ships and II should not
be Indifferent to the present condition
of the shipping situation. ! am siad to
note that the matter is apparently en-
gaging the attention Of the authorities.
There are naturally divers views as
10 how long the depression Of the ship
ping market will continue. but think
that It will continue up TO the end Of
about 1922 and that no appreciable in-
provemcnt will set In until after that
year. Perhaps the general financial sit
ua,lon will take similar course to the
shipping market. and all should be pre-