New-York tribune., 1920-10-31

state II he had an organization over
the state like the Republican machine
in Cincinnati"
Cox Leaders Lose Hope
Every other Democratic newspaper
man fixed the minimum majority for
Harding in the state at 100 900, and
most of them thought it would go con
siderably higher. ! mention the opin-
IONS Of the Democratic newspaper men
for the reason that Republican news
paper men might be suspected Of per-
hitting their personal hopes to inAu-
cnce their judgment. lncloentally, NJ >st
of the Republican newspaper men put
their estimates of Harding's majority
just little higher.
The only persons making any CLAIM,
that Cox will carry the state are right
inside Democratic headquarters. Even
their enthusiasm is not commitment
ing itself to the BIG Democratic lead
crs of the state. many Of whom I have
known for years and whose judgmc MT
in the past has proved itself to be ac-
curate
'lf we just had two weeks more and
million dollars more to spend in
Ohio said one Of these leaders, a man
known from one end of the country to
the other, 1--WE could carry the state"
Another Democrat who occupied a
high place on state wide ticket within
recent years told me in the presence
Of two Democratic newspaper men that
he thought Hardings majority could
not be less than 10000 and would
proba bly, reach 100000
Don't think that | am not for Cox"
this man continued 81 wish to heaven
he could be elected. But he ruined
himself in Ohio when he went running
to h ,rto !, ;e
shoulders this League Of Nations
burden. | admit that | am personally
against the league. but ] would be for
Jimmie Cox no matter what he wanted.
| have been in every county of the
state, however, and Ha1ding's majority
is going to surprise everybody"
At the time Of the Chicago consen-
ton. after the campaign fund investi-
CATION had given Governor Lowden and
General Wood blows which made the
delegates fear they could not be elected
handed the nomination as the most ac-
ceptablc dark horse" for although
Harding had been an avowcd candidate
prior to that he had never been able
to get anywhere with his candidacy up
to that time
Ohio a Pivotal State
The chief factor which made Harding
the most acceptable dark horse was
the belief that if nominated he might
be able to carry Ohio. Wilson carried
Ohio in 1916 by a plurality over Hughes
Of S94O8. Had Hughes carried Ohio
no one would have cared how Cali
tornia vent Ohio has s1,l bad cl-ven
more electoral votes than Caiifor'! q
SO it wss figured, and still is, that
if a Republican nominee for the Presi-
dency can carry Ohio and tie Eastern
states which Hughes carried, the Demo
cratic nominee has no chance. no mat
ter what ne might be able to do in
the West
The Democrats recognized this in
nominating Cox There were other
reasons. notably that every one at the
San Francisco convention thought that
Cox was further removed from the
than any one who could be named.
These two lines Of logic seem both to
hove been faulty. Cox hurried TO
Washington to get himself stamped
with the Wilson Admin stration blight,
and unless every shrewd oldtinlcr
among the Ohio politicians Of both
parties and practically every news
paper man IN the state is crazy .Jox
has no chance Of carrying Ohio.
As matter of cold fact, Cox could
rot b. elected from present indications
even if he did carry Ohio. so it is not
accurate to say that the election de
nends on the vote of the Buckeye State,
though it would doubtless make this
outline of the situation more intore St
ine if that could truthfully be said.
Entirely too much emphasis has beea
laid on the fact that Cox has been
elected Governor Of Ohio three times
in the last eight years. In 1912 the
split N the Republican party put MIN
in. He received 51osO votes less than
the combined vote for Brown, the Re
publican and Garford. the Progressive
candidates against him. In 1914 he
was defeated by Frank r. Willis now
candidate for Senator. by plurality
Of 29.270 votes. In 1915. when Wilson
rolled up plurality Of 89,4os, Cox
crawled through by G.S16.
Cox's Plurality 11.a44
That brings US down to the last
election. that of 1918 Cox's plurality
was 1874 In Hamilton County
which includes the big normally Re
publican city Of Cincinnati Cox's plu-
raltv was 1870. So that without the
vote Of Hamilton County Cox would
have been defeated This was far from
a swing to the Democratic party. Nick
Longworth, who except for 1912 has
been getting elected consistently by
handsome majorties in that district
for many years. was reelected in 1916
without any trouble.
The explanation Of Cox's majority
in Hamilton County is that the Ger
mans in Cincinnati voted for him al
most solldly. first because they were
against Willis. an ardent dry. and sec
ond. because they believed implicitly
for some reason that Cox would save
the saloons. What the real basis Of
this belle, was would probably require
sitting a lot of coAtradctory state
ments to ascertain. but the fact is that
the Cincinnati vets at this moment are
still very bitter against the man they
regard as having betrayed them.
Men I have always found very CON
servative in the past told me in Gin
cinnati the other day that Hamilton
County would not give Harding less
than $4,000 Nick Longworth, who is
probably the least excitable man in
the United States, thinks it will be
about 100000
The Democratic Gibraltar of the
state always has been Cuyahoca
County, which includes Cleveland
Wilson carried< his county over Huche=
IN 1916 by about 10000 The betting
odds on the boards IN Cleveland show
even money offered that Harding viii
carry the county bv 10000 and even
money that Harding VIII carry tho
state br 100000 lncidentallv. the