The Bridgeport times and evening farmer., 1920-10-13
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, duce, as is attested by the rising tide of imports. And we are. facing Q period of unsettled conditions, even more critical in some respects than that through which we have just passed.
 There seems to be every indication that the peak of high prices in com modities generally has been passed, and that the process of readjustment 10 lower and more normal levels is under way. This, of course, will af- feet all business, and must be reckon cd with in any business plan. There has been a steady decline in commod- ity prices as a whole from February of this year, when they reached their ! these declines are more pronounced than others. In manufactured pro- ducts this is true as yet in only a i slight degree, but it is certain to be reflected there also.
 $ And, as was to be expected in a 1 period of declining commodity prices i and slackening activity in nuns Der : of industrial lines, both the number | of commercial failures and liabilities involved are increasing. It has been : estimated (Dun's) that in September, i for instance the defaults in. mercan- tile and industrial lines numbered 677 with liabilities of more than 29 ml- [ lion dollars, fasc compared with only f 497 failures and liabilities of mil : lion dollars in August, 1919. The de- 1 faults for August numbered 673, with I million dollars, and sharply exceeded those for August of last year, while the liabilities, due to unusual num- Der of large reverses, were well above failures in August of this year ex- ceeded those for any August since !1S96, and the liabilities involved by these defaults are the heaviest report ed for the period since 1914.
 ,- While tbese failures have not req ch- | ed alarming proportions at all, they indicate that certain more or less painful readjustments are taking place in trade and industry. They should point their moral, namely, that in declining market 1t is the i part of wisdom to be short on com modities and long on credit. It has been observed that the highest degree of skill is required to carry business enterprises safely through periods of falling prices, even when the fall IS lOf moderate proportions.
 This is not the time to borrow In sorder to carry large stocks of goods Tor to stimulate the production of non essential commodities. But commer- lcial loans are not being denied to lany industry that is endeavoring to increase, the production of essential goods.
 While the Federal Reserve Board thas consistently declined to rule up- on the question as to what are essen tia1 and non-essential comm odiues, ithe banks have proceeded on the ba- ISIS, DEOduly SpedklnS, tiltL dh SoScZh- tial commodity is product for (which there is an urgent demand and which is indispensable to the welfare iof the community. And the banks fhave encouraged the greater produc- ition of necessaries.
 Manufacturers and dealers who are tendeavoring to sustain prices by aru- ficial means are merely emulatlng king Conute-only they are forbid rding the tide to recede, and they shouId remember that tide and time wait for no man. They are trying Ito do that which bureaucratic govern mental agencies sought vain1y to ac- lcomplish during the war by eXecu- tive decree and legislative enactment the suspension of the operation of economic laws. It is as foolhardy as ,defying the law of gravitation.
 We must either climb down or fall down from the peak reached by wal demand and war imitation, and the Journey downward is already under way. Some of us will be more rapid than. others and some will experience greater suffering than others, but down we must all go until a new and more solid level is reached. The business man who blinds, himself tc tthe facts and refuses to face the issue will simply be postponing his own day of reckoning and will deceive himself Ito his own disadvantage.
 In this connection, it would be well flor our business interests to consid- ger the trend of our foreign trade, for Fhere is a close and vital relationship Between the state of that trade and domestic prosperity. As a result oi the world shortage of all necessaries of life and the expansion of industry here to help meet the unsuitable de 1mandS of the universe for practically gall kinds of products, we are more dependent than ever before upon ou1 overseas commerce.
 While the deacrese in our .enor- mously favorable trade balance is al together wholesome, in that, to z large extent, it measures the recovery of industries in Europe and is evid ence that we are increasingly receiv dnS payment for goods in goods rath er than in credit-which is gradually but materially affecting the trend O. prices in this country-it also serves to call attention to the vital fact tha the time is approaching when Amer ica will be confronted with a. con tracted European market. When tha happens there may be serious conse
 markets for American Products arr mot found. It may be well to recal that the failure of the export marke of England to hold up to expectation was one of the prime reasons for thu economic depression that occurred il England after the Napoleonic wars And the best way for us to create neV markets is to finance new enterprise and construction work in Latil America, China and elsewhere. Trad
 follows investment, as England Ina demonStrated-to her huge profit.
 There is another important elemen fo consider. Within a few years w have acquired a very large merchar fleet. We must keep it profitabl, employed. The terms of the Ship ping Bill recently passed by Congres commit us definitely to an aggressiv
 policy in the use of this new flee And it is a source of qualification to note that American ships toda
 carry 60 per cent of our ocean-bor
 fOreign trade The SignificaDce q
 this lies in the fact that for sixt
 years a larger proportion of the prof
 Its of American industries has gon
 overseas in the form of ocean freigh
 rates, marine insurance premium.
 and banking commissions. The to
 has aggregated billions of dollars
 From 1870 to 1890, alone, foreig
 Bhip owners collected more than thre
 million dollars from us. In the yea
 before the war the bill amounted t
 pearly four hundred million dollar.
 and last year, it is estimated, we pal
 tn excess of seven hundred millio