Evening star., 1920-05-23
PICKING Of WINNER
At 0L|KELY
TO Be LONG TASK
Deadlock, Then Conference,
Order of Procedure as
Now Expected.
VOTE-GETTING ABILITIES
TO HAVE SHARP ANALYSIS
Republican Organization Leaders
Potent Factors in Elimination
Process at Convention.
BY N. o. MESSENGER.


BY N. o. MESSENGER.
CHICAGO, May 22.-Among the mass
of uninstructed. unpledged, to some
extent undecided. delegates to the re-
publican national convention. COM
posing a majority of that body. still
sembled. will choose the candidate OF
the party. Omitting Oregon. Pennsyl-
vania, Vermont and the states which
have not yet spoken. there are 66s
uninstructed. and 4s3 delegates con-
stitute a majority Of the convention
It is entirely futile to endeavor to
lay out a forecast of the convention
probable action. working from the
basis Of the declared preference OF
delegates thus far chosen. Any cal
culation thus undertaken would tend
to eliminate candidates rathef than
point to a choice.
What is expected to happen is this;
After one or two ballots have been
taken the succeeding ballots will
show the candidates swinging in their
reserve strength. They must do this
in order to prevent the high man.
starting a. stampede. Soon thereafter
will come the Inevitable deadlock. No
man will be anywhere near a major
ity. The time will approach when dele
cations will begin to swing from can
didate to candidate. Unless there
should be a sudden and now entirely
unexpected break, the deadlock. 1t is
apprehended. will run along through
other ballots.
Necessity for Conferences.
Then will be presented the neces-
sity for conferences among the lead
ing republicans present. to the end
of breaking the deadlock and NOM
mating a candidate who, in their
opinion. can be elected in November.
Some one has lightly said that at an
unseemly hour in the night Of the
third or fourth day small group Of
leaders will meet and pick the win
ner. That observation was wide Of
the mapk and exaggerated. No such
action as that is believed possible
and therefore Is unlikely to be at
tempted.
There will be a conference or series
Of meetings Of the leaders prominent
and influential in the party OF all
factions. who will sincerely seek q
solution Of the deadlock which will
not leave the party shattered when
the deadlock is broken.
Bearing in mind constantly that the
majority Of the delegates are unin-
structed. although holding most of
be natural for them to look to their
leaders for guidance and advice in
casting what may prove to be a de-
cisive vote.
The leaders will be the men Of long
party service. leaders in state delega-
tions. distinguished in national and
political affairs. embodying the
weight Of personal influence and
power Of persuasion with their fol-
lowers.
Probably by that time It will have
been shown to every one that some Of
the candidates are impossible of NOM
ination. The process Of elimination
will have been completed. The con-
ferees will be confronted with the
necessity Of turning to other candi-
dates and. among them decide upon a
man to TRY out" in the convention.
looking always to the election in No.
vember. and the fitness of the pro-
posed candidate to make the race at
the polls
None to BE Shut Out.
Trouble-makers have sought To
spread the impression that some Of
the candidates now well up In the
lead In the preliminary heats will
be shut out Of those deliberations.
That is not true. Hiram johnson.
and he is the one they had chiefly in
mind. will be as conspicuous and as
welcome in the conferences as anv
''old guard" leader who can be men.
toned. Gen. Wood. in person or bv
proxy. will be there. and all other
candidates will be represented, their
interests safeguarded and their rights
respected.
Most republican leaders outside the
camps of the respective candidates
believe that Gen. Wood and Senator
Johnson will be found still effective.
ly blocking each other at that stage.
They are of the opinion that Gov.
Lowden will be the first of the several
alternatives to come up for consider
alton in the conferences, the question
being Can he be elected ?" Thew think
he will be the first man to be consid-
cred because he is known to possess
greater actual political strength than
any others except Gen. Wood and
Senator johnson.
In fact. Wood delegations and John.
son delegations include men who
favor the Illinois governor for sac.
ond choice. In the great body OF IN.
instructed delegations he is known
to have friends and supporters from
every state. That is to say, they ara
favorable to his nomination in case
it is thought by the elder statesmen
Of the party that he can be elected.
A case in point-there is Pennsyl-
vania, which will hang It's vote on
the Knox hook until time to apply it.
Senator Penrose is friendly to Low
den and 30 is Gov. Sproul. Neither
has found 1t expedient to declare for
Continued on Page II. Column u