The Washington herald., 1920-05-09
Prindries Fail
ToShou, Trend
OfRepubhcans
Issues as Far from Determi-
nation as They We're
Months Ago.
Result Of Popular Voting
Gives No hiking as to
Nominee.
By WILLIS ]. ABBOT.

q
ing Of the Republican primaries IN
California and Indiana during the
last week, all the preliminary slir-
mishes in the great battle to be
won or lost at Chicago in the first
week in June have been fought
If there is any significance what
soever in their results il is that
the real issue is as far from de-
termination today as it was when
the first primary was held in
March.
From the results thus far at
tanned the observer of politics may
gather certain facts that will en-
able him, if shrewd, % dcduee
some idea as to thc general d.
rection that will b followed in
the convention.
Task for Convenrf,a. ~
He can form no -rTrEtn ccuaIu-
sion as to the identity Of the can
! didate there TO be nominated for
none of the aspirants cumes v .thin
reaching distance OF n,syaftty ~
the convention in FIoGsrd ao.g-
gates. Indeed. the ,.nr rrst lssssa
of the primaries is INST 81. e 10 be
the conventions tass te make tire
selection. little hs'ugercd ry in
structions from prin4sIs voters.
, recall very wei that ~ the
Democratic conventlCa In Denver
in 1908 It was one OF the ronmou-
places of political convcrssfior -
say that that was probably the 81
convention that would ever control
nomination: that th-rcsftsr, ow-
ing to the spread or the preEldeu-
tial primary laws, presidents would
be nominated directly by the peo-
pie. But the next convention OF
that party, at Baltimore, gave the
| very finest example OF the wsy in
which popular instructions can be
overthrOwn. And this year We ma
the Democratic voters making no
effort to instruct their delegates
while despite the eagerness OF Re-
publican aspirants no one or them
has secured even half enough dele
gates to nominate.
As interest for the time centers
chiefly in the Republican conyen-
tion. let us consider, in a broad ana
general way, the prospects of the
candidates who will go before that
body.
We will observe. TO begin with.
that the final power rests with the
luninstructed rather than the in
structed delegations. or sS4 dele-
gates who will sit at Chicago sIz
have thus far been chosen. OF
these. S7s are uninstructed. the re-
mainder being so divided among
the various candidates that the in
structed vote of no one amounts to
more than a formidable nucleus on
which to build support In the con-
lVention.
Instructed DeIegstes and Delegates
"CIaimed.,
! am talking, OF course, Of dele
gates actually Instructed, not Of
those claimed by campaign man
ayers. The actual instructions for
Wood, for example. he being the
leading candidate, number 2o2, while
the total claimed by his managers
is 35S. II is interesting to recall
in this connection that in 1880 Gar
field had one vote on the second
ballot but was ultimately nomi-
mated.
Wood. johnson and Lowden will
from present indications. go into
lthe convention the leaders IN tia
order named. But il is a leader
l shin Of
which they have paid a heavy price.
Declarations Of presidential prefer
ences by the voters Of a State have
never long held the delegates. We
have an illustration Of this in the
fact that while johnson carried the
State Of Michigan, the delegates.
being elected by districts. are de-
clsring their purpose of voting for
whom they will. In New Jersey,
on the contrary, while johnson car
ried some districts he lost the State.
Yet his district delegates declare
their purpose OF ignoring the man
date Of the State as q whole.
For a somewhat tenuous hold up
on an uncertain number OF dele
gates the candidates thus early IN
the race have aroused antagonism
that will not easily be allayed and
that may furnish the real reason
for their defeat. II is quite In
credible that in the event Of his
/ own defeat being apparently as
sured. Governor Lowden would
throw his votes to- Gen. Wood.
More probably they would 20 70
Hoover or to Coolidge. of Masss-
chusettS or some other candidate
who had not mingled In the rough
struggle for the Illinois delegation.
A similar danger was incurred BY
Senator johnson when he invaded
Ohio regardless Of the claims OF
Governor Harding as it's favorIte
son.
IL is wholly probsble-indeed II
we are TO judge at all by the rec
lords OF Republican conventions In