New-York tribune., 1920-12-19
January Most
Critical Month
For Business
Merchants Hope Turning
Point in Calendar Will
Bring Change for Better
and End the Depression
Small Firms Endangered
Establishment of Prices on
Stronger Low Basis Is Ex-
pected in Pressure to Sell

endar year and business men are hop
ing that it will also denote a change
in the generally depressed condition
that has obtained for the last six
months or more
In many ways January will be the
most critical month that business vet
has had to face. 1t is expected to be a
particularly trying period for the re-
tailers of the country who will have
the problem of trying to unload the
remnants of stocks without the stimu-
us of Christmas buying.
The fact that old merchandise values
in almost every line have been de-
stroyed and that new values are much
lower or at best uncertain, is leading
both retail and wholesale merchants
to plan for taking their annual inven-
tories with as small a stock on hand
as possible. The desire to enter the
new year, and the new season, for the
spring selling term will be inauguratcd
ssoon as tn new year appears. ac-
cording to the best Judgment in the
trade, with a clean slate is particula rlv
strong. This leads to the conclusion
that January will see another furry
OF price reductions in both retail and
wholesale merchants in their ecorts to
rid themselves of old stocks which
have not been saleable up to the pres
cnt.
Reshaping of Policies
That there will be general reshap-
ing OF business policies in many lines
is agreed by all members of trade.
Few are the merchants, wholesalers or
manufacturers in textile, shoe, apparel
and kindred lines who expect to do the
volume OF business next year that they
did in 1919.
Hitherto trading has been conducted
on the more or less general plan of
beating last years record. Some sys-
TEN OF setting quotas based on past
experience Is in vogue in almost every
department store and speciality shop in
the country. Unfortunately, most of
these records have dealt merely with
the dollar and cents volume of bust
ness. During 1920 there has been a
gradual realization among retailers
that this system is not based on good
Judgment. 1t was easy to beat the
previous year, when prices were con-
stantly climbing and the general pub
lie was spending recklessly. 1t is much
harder with prices declining, the unit
value of each sale shrinking and pur-
chasers searching for bargains and
doing out money more cautiously.
1t is a we'll known fact that the uual-
ity of merchandise deteriorated during
the war and the hectic business period
Immediately following Almost any
thing was good enough to please the
taste of buyers. Now ali this is
changed, and merchants are planning
to get back to their old standards of
quality or to improve them. January
is likely to see n striving for quality
more pronounced than that of recent
months, according to the views of
prominent retailers and manufacturers.
Await Inventory Disclosures
Just what January Inventories will
disclose in the way of actual condi-
tions, applied broadly, is difficult to de-
termine. Few OF those in trade are
willing to admit that their stocks are
extraordinarily heavy The big SIMS
appear TO have worked down their
stocks to what they consider safe
margin. The smaller manufacturers,
traders and retailers, on the other
hand, many Of whom are lacking in
business experience and ability, and
who were kept alive in business sense
only by the swift pace of demand for
goods, are not in such good shape.
recent survey of the shoe industry
revealed that stocks of large retailers
were small in comparison with last
year, not only in money value, but in
units. The reverse was found to be
generally true Of smaller retailers.
Similar indications are found in other
trades. pointing to the possibility Of d
great increase in the number of fail
ures Of small business men. 1t is Ger
tain, from the attitude of bankers, that
a large inventory presented at the first
of the year Will lead to shutting off
further bank credits and pressure to
lquidate, even though iquidation means
the end Of business career.
January also will provide stiff test
for prices in the wholesale markets on
spring merchandise. Up to the pres
ent. according to the best estimates,
only about 10 per cent of normal spring
orders have been placed.
Easter Comes Earlier
Easter this year comes two weeks
earlier than usual, and Easter s the
inaugural Of the spring retail selling
season, regardless Of weather condi-
tions prevailing at that time. In other
spring at least two weeks before
Easter. The time in which spring mer-
chandisc can be manufactured already
has been cu,tailed by two or three
months by the holding off of buying ON
the part of wholesalers and retailers.
In such lines as mems clothing, knit
ted underwear, cotton goods, silks
woolens and shoes spring buying so far
las not given many Of the closed down
factories sufficient business to justify
reopcning tho plants.
If, then, the merchants are to be pre-
pared with new merchandise for the
spring season. it must be ordered main
ly in January to give manufacturers
sufficient time to produce it, The sur
plus of merchandise that already exists
IN seasonable linc7 of goods is confined
chiefly to winter merchandise. But it
must not be inferred from this that
buyers are willing to pay prices they
consider exorbitant for new merchan-
disc. The buyers will want to buy. and
the sellers will want to sell. Between
the two, definite prices, based as near
rock bottom basis as is possible, are ex-
pected to result.
Cheaper Quality Resented
Meeting new low prices by cutting
down on quality is being resented by
many buyers now in the market. |
Buyers say that old standards of quail |
itV have been FORGOTTEN i'm ths effort of |