The Rice belt journal., 1920-07-10
M|LLERS ESTIMATE
QUITE RIDICULOUS
Says the Secretary of the Southren
Rice Growers of Preliminary
Report Issued.


dayby the Louisiana State Rice Milling
Company of New Orleans, purp0rting
to be preliminary estimate of the
acreage and yield of the 1920 rice
lCrOp, is ridiculous in so far as it ap-
plies to the estimated production, is
the opinion expressed by E. A, Eignus
Secretary of the Southern Rice Grow.
ers' Association.
1T is silly" continued Mr., Eignus,
for any rice milling concern to attempt
to forecast the production of the Unit
ed States at this time, when all of the
rice is not yet planted, and when any
number of things detrimental to the
crop may happen between now and
harvest time.
"The newspaper story of this remark
liable forecast contained about twenty.
four lines, twenty-five lines of the
story were devoted to a list of the
subsidiary companies controlled by the
Louisiana State Rice Milling Company
and their prediction of the yield in the
different states, and only one line and
half had to do with the rice acreage
| think this is significant" said Mr.
EignuS, "inasmuch as it indicates that
the Louisiana Rice Milling Company
consider their opinion of the produc-
ton of a crop not yet all planted is
about fifteen times more important
than their estimate of the planted acre.
Iage. They estimate the acreage at
| 1905 acres and the yield in excess
of 60,000,000 bushels. This would place
the average production at about 43.7
bushels, or 121 barrels per acre.
According to figures of the Unit.
ed States Department of Agriculture,
there has only been one year (1916)
in the past sixteen years in which the
average yield per acre was as great
as the prediction made for this years
average by this milling concern. From
1904 to 1919, with the exception of
1916, the yield per acre, according to
the United States Department of Agri-
culture, ran from 1872 to 81 bushels
per acre, or an average for the sixteen
year period of 34.1 bushels, or 10 bush
els less than the extremely optimistic
report just published by this mill.
by just what process the yield of
over twelve barrelsApe acre is arrived
at is hard to understand While in
some sections of the belt our planting
season was unfavorable, in many 9th.
ers a protracted drought extending
over a seven weeks period followed
by a season of continuous rains, SER
iously hindered and delayed planting
operations, and a great deal of rice
|
was replanted two or three times. AL
though the crop looks good in some
sections, there are very poor prospects
in Others Anything that happens to
the crop from this on will tend to
lessen the yield.
1t is favorite pass-time Of many
bears and market-busters to attempt
to forecast the production of the rice
crop in the early days of July. Such
predictions should be taken by the
trade at exactly what they are worth,
The present rice crop will be the most
expensive one ever produced in the
United States The planters realize
with the large acreage this year, that
the prices to be expected would hard
ly range as high as those last fall, but
they will resent any attempt on the
part of any rice miller or Speculation
to bear the market weeks before the
first of the new crop will be harvested
! Predictions of the probable size oi
any growing crop made by private
concerns, are usually calculated te
color and affect the market in such
way as to rebound to the profit oi
such concerns.
I'm nay opinion" continued Mr.. Fig
nus, "it As untimely and in poor TASTE
for Mr. Godcheaux, who is not only
the president of the Louisiana State
Rice Milling Company, but also presi
dent of the Rice Millers' Association
to countenance the publication Oflsucl
an estimate on the eve of the annua
acreage estimate published by tn,
Rice Millers' Association" =" y
ut is the proper function of tht
Bureau of Crop Estimates, of the De
partment of Agriculture, the Southern
Rice Growers Association and the Mil
lers' Association to compile and max,
public estimates having. to do. will
the acreage and production of the ric
crop, but in all~the years the Ric'
Millers Association has publishes
their estimates they have never al
tempted to predict the production unit
a large portion of the crop was hal
vested. The publication Of an estimat
lnlacing the production Of the curren