The New York herald. [volume] (New York, N.Y.) 1920-1924, 1920-10-17
NATION FACING
1 BIG SHORTAGE
IN SOFT COAL
Total Output Said to Be
20.300,000 Tons Below
Estimated Needs.
EXPORTS TAKE q P. c.
Railroads Use AZ, 100000
Of 525,000,0OO Tons Mined
Each Year.
SUPPLY HIT BY STRIKES
George Otis Smith, Director of
Geological Survey, Explains
Present Situation.
EXPORTS TAKE q P. c.
SUPPLY HIT BY STRIKES

WASHINGTON, Oct. 16.-The POSSIBLE
fly of a coal shortage OF nationwide
proportions this winter is reflected in
a report of the production of the BIZ
luminous mines which has been issued
by the United States Geological Sur
vey. The output of the mines at the
present time Is almost 100000 tons
q week behind the requirements, with
an accumulated shortage of at least
10000, 900 tons as compared with the
estimated needs.
The average output of the mines is
slightly in excess Of 100000 tons
week. and will probably amount TO
625. 1000, 900 tons for the year. The
minimum estimated requirements of
the country for this year are $4,000
600 tons. The maximum requirements
have been placed at 5s0.000.o00 tons.
The Council of National Defence is of
the opinion that the country will need
660,0O0,000 tons
While the consumption of coal is not
equal to that of the war year of 1918. it
Is far in excess of the tonnage that
was burned last year. 1t is not only
exceeding the present output of the
mines but is depicting the limited
reserve supplies that have been stored
during the summer months for emer-
gency purposes this winter.
Percentage figures on the consump
ton of bituminous coal this year have
been prepared by George Otis Smith,
director of the Geological Survey.
These figures show just where the out
put of the mines is going and the
volume of coal that Is being burned
this year by the different groups Of
consumers and industries in the
country
Production Behind Demand.
While Mr.. Smith has not attempted
to estimate the bituminous requirements
for the year. his figures indicate quite
clearly that the production of the mines
Is not keeping pace with the demand
for coal.
The railroads, according to his figures.
are now burning IS per cent Of the out
put of soft coal this year. This amounts
to 147. 100000 tons. or about 100000 tons
less than their average consumption In
the last four or five years. The coke
plants OF the country, the steamships
engaged In foreign trade and the de-
mand for American coal in other coun-
tries Is taking 2l9 per cent. or u5,155, 900
tons, of the mine output.
Manufacturing enterprises and indus
tries are consuming q per cent, or
141.750 600 tons. The bituminous coal
mines are using 81 per cent. of their
production. or IL, OF, 900 tons, to generate
power to operate the mining plants.
The electric power plants in cities and
urban communities are burning 6 per
cent, OF 81, SOC. 900 tons. Households and
Apartment buildings are using 10 per
cent, or 52.500.000 TONS and the remain
ing per cent, or 26, ESQ., 600 tons, is being
consumed by the steel industry.
1.-THE function of the Geological Sur
vey," said Mr. Smith, "is in ascertain
ing the facts and publishing them. once
the facts are published the individual
may draw his own differences. Esti-
mated requirements are a thing OF the
future. hence the Geological Survey has
alway hesltated 20 make public state
ments as to what 1t thinks the future
requirements will be.
Soft Coal RenI Need.
"The country this year is chiefly con-
cerned with the supply of btuminoas
coal. The production and distribution
of anthracite Is relatively stable and
shows little variation from year to year
The anthracite supply may be summed
up In the statement that there Is 6
chronic shortage OF domestic. or house.
hold sizes and chronic oversupply OF
steam or Industrial sizes. So. for prac-
teal purposes, the discussion Of re-
Quirements this year may be confined
to bituminous coal.
THE only satisfactory way to esti.
mate requirements is to Judge the
future by the past There are three
variable factors I'm such an effort. The
general tone Of business, the season OF
the year and the stocks of coal thai
are already In the possession of con.
sumers.
Dealing with the first of these fac.
tors, the production of coal respond.
quickly to changes In Industrial &C
tivity. AS the steel industry contribute,
the largest single item In the industrial
demand. Its activity generally reflect.
the activity in all industry in so far al
II relates TO the consumption of coal
Probably the safest way 10 make al
lowance for the tone Of business ii
forecasting requirements Is to look n
the current production OF steel an,
Iron and at the figures of untitled or
ders on the books of the steel pro
duccrs."
In considering the seasonal deman,
for coal. particularly as applied to thi
year Mr.. Smith pointed out that tn
consumption OF coal by the railroads
public utilities and certain industrie
from month to month is known. r.
these current demands. which are con
tinulng throughout the year. are to b
added the new requirements that arts
with the approach Of winter.
Demand the Grent Factor.
The seasonal demand IL at MI time
an important factor In mine operate Z.
Restricted production due 10 lirited de
mand I'm the summer months usual
neflects dulness in Industry. The mine
,..rri.,.r fuil hInal I'm the allrlrnnr finn