Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1920-07-29
ESTIMATING THE CROPS
Soothsayers Near
ing End of Stressful Season
vital Question IL "How Much Food Will
America Contribute This Year tn
a Hungry worlds, How An
swer In Obtained
CBy Frederic J. Haskin,

By Frederic ]. Haskin,
washington, d. c., July N-The Gov.
eminent soothsayers. prophets of the IN.
ture, revealers of things that are to be.
are just now coming to the end of a stress
Iui season. They have again been asked
TO give the answer. far in advance of a
normal revelation of the facts, to the vital
question: How much food will America
contribute to hungry world" They are
the men who operate the Bureau Of Crop
Estimates Of the Department of Agricul-
ture' and 1t is no small task to tell in ad-
vance the likely yield, year by year, from
all the farm lands in the United States.
Inc Government, month by month, as
the season advances, complies all the in
formation that it can get, and from that
information draws the best conclusions
that its experience and wisdom make pos
sible as to the amount of wheat, corn,
cotton and other crops that are to come
from the soil. 1t gives this information
to the Wall Street broker, to the dealer
the consumer, the farmer. to everybody
IL does this, that the sophisticated among
the hundred million may not have an ad-
vantage over the unsophisticated. that
markets may not be juggled on false in
formation. that whoever buys or sells
these staples may have the facts upon
which to base judgement of their value.
Every month during the spring and sum-
mer the Bureau of Crop Estimates issues
statement in which it reviews the crop
situation, and figure from these facts
what the yield should be. It finds out as
nearly as it can how acres have been
planted to the different crops, and the
condition under which these crops are
conditions with similar reports from past
years. 1t reaches the conclusion that the
logical yield under the circumstances
should be this figure or that. It shows how
the estimate compares with the crop OF
last year, and with the crop Of
the average year. This is necessary
because the consumption of a product
like wheat is constant and a yard
stick must furnish by which to meas
ure prospective prices.
AN ARMY OF REPORTERS
1t is an infinitely difficult thing to find
out in April. for instance, just how MANY
acres have been planted in wheat between
Maine and Oregon. The Department., how
ever, has about 2l5,0O0 reporters. Each
of these is man who is close to the soil
In his community. Each makes UP state
ment in which he estimates that the acre
age in his community is normal, ten per
cent, fifteen per cent below. or whatever
he believes it to be. Three estimates come
in from every community. and the average
of these three is likely to be a nearly
correct estimate. this estimate is too
high it is likely to be counteractcd by an
estimate from another community wfuch
is too low The average of all estimates
from all sources is likely to be quite close
to the facts.
with the average determined as nearly
as possible, the Department asks for re-
ports, month by month, on the condition
OF the crop. Is it normal, or better or
worse than normal? It's 215,OOo reporters
send in detail on this subject. Acreage
and condition being determined, the crop
are figured out
The man in township having a bump |
or crop or a poor one, might conclude !
that the nation would be overfed or starry
ed according to his prospects. The coun-
ty agent might draw different conclusions !
from his outlook. The field agent rep
resenting a great state might register
gloom or optimism according to his lights |
But the individual reckoning of any one
of these is on too narrow a plain. Even |
the prospective yield of this most produc-
tive of nations might be counteracted by
world conditions.
So the reports from the townships must
be combined with counties, counties with |
states, states with the nation. The whole
program must be repeated every month.
Judgement and knowledge must be ap-
piled to the process at every step. And |
It has to be done on schedule time. The
Bureau must not go far wrong because
the crop will soon be harvested and the
actual figures revealed.
THE ESTIMATES ARE CLOSE
For twenty years the estimates have,
On the average, been within one and a
half per cent of the crop. Thirteen times
the Department has under estimated the
crop, and seven times it has over-estim-
ated it.
When the estimates are ready for an
an event of importance is
tagged. The government announcement Of
he probab ility of a poor yield of cotton
,r a good yield of rice will have defin-
tie influence on the market-wlll send
he price of a particular staple up or
Town. If an interested party knew the
acts in advance he could make fortune.
Therefore, on announcement days. the
workers in the Bureau in Washington
must bring their lunches because they
ire locked in until the figures are finally
nnounced at a quarter after two in the
lfternoon. All telephones are dsconnect-
ID. The sealed reports from various
tates have been arriving for days. They
ire brought by special messengers from
he post Office and are locked in the safe
With their seals still unbroken. On the
NAL day they are carried in state to the
ffice of the crop estimator There they
re opened by the board on which the
himself is sitting, and the COM
tutors set to work making up the aver
ges.
About twelve years ago 3 member of
his crop estimate board conspired with a
confederate to tip informatio in advance
hat they might profit in the market.
sitting in locked room with the Secre-