Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1920-06-12
HEAD OF WATCH CO.
FEARS DEPRESSION
Believes Slack Period at Hand,
but No Near Slump in Com
modify Prices
PACKING TRADE IMPROVES

Chicago, June &c. II. Hulburd
Of Hulburd, Warren & Chandler,
president of the Elgin Watch Co. and
one of the best forecasters in the West,
says to the PUBLIC LEDGER: 'The
business situation domestically is ex-
tremely critical and I think we have
entered period of depression, although
| do not expect any slump in prices OF
essential commodities for a long time.
The stock market has been liquidated as
much as IL should be. but nobody can
tell what effect business depression will
have.
Some big concern might get over
extended and unable to overcome credit
stringency in time to save itself. but
barring some such unexpected develop
ment / presume we will run along in
definitely, certainly into the winter,
when coal shortage might compel eStcn"
sive industrial curtailment There
could be great deal of unemployment
without actual cutting of wage unit.
but that would logically follow heavy
imports and immigration. Europe is
coming back faster than we realize. My
friends who have been over there re-
Gently all tell me So. Robert Thorne,
Of Montgomery Ward & Co., says
France is progressing with surprising
rapidity. Germany's recovering may be
equally surprising.
Some Luxury Lines Backward
How long will the depression last
and how bad it will be? That depends
largely on when we really get it. If 1t
should come upon US now in full force it
would not be so bad or last more than
two or three years. whereas. If we con-
tinue initiating that long we can have
very serious experience for many years
thereafter In any event, the railroads
are not able now to carry their load.
money Is tight everywhere and labor s
attitude is not improving, while crop
prospects are only fair. Prices of
staples hold well because the country
is rich and lavish.
Some luxury lines, like diamonds,
are backward. Silk prices broke for
reasons best known in japan. Demand
for watches has not declined. Our
sales exceed those of a year ago, by ~
per cent. Our prices since 1914 have
advanced only 40 per cent, while our
production increased 60 per cent. and
our labor and other costs nearly so per
cent. Without profiteering, we have
more than half our margin of profits.
Chicago merchants, back from the
Illinois Retail Merchants Association $
meeting in East st. Louis. expect price
declines all along the line. The as.
sociation passed resolutions requesting
the government to adopt constructive
program for elimination of unneccs-
sary handling in distribution. resalcs
within the same group. speculative in
reference by outsiders and other un-
necessary costs.
Marshall Field & Co. report whole
sale dry goods distribution still much
above a year ago and collections good.
but road sales less and fewer visiting
customers.
Packers Report Improvement.
Armour & Co. says: Business con-
ditions in the packing industry general
week, primarily attributed to better
transportation. Collections are fairly
good. The beef trade is Influenced by
light receipts and increase in demand
throughout the country. Demand for
fresh pork is normal for the season and
shipments go forward readily. Much
warmer weather has added impstus to
the provision trade in general. especial
~ hams and other sugar cured smoked
meats. Export trade continues to be
ruled entirely by foreign exchange,
which show very little improvement.
Diminishing weight and deteriorating
quality of hog arrivals indicate that
accumulations from the winter crop
smaller summer run than n year ago
is expected. Fat grass goats have been
arriving in Kansas City for several
weeks from Texas and New Mexico.
More tran 100000 goats and kids are
going into meat consumption domestic
ally each year, mostly disguised as NUT
ton and lamb.