Indiana daily times. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1914-1922, 1920-07-27
ESTIMATORS
RARELY MISS
SIZE OF CROP
,<Experts Compile Information
From Averages of 215,-
600 Reporters.
REPORT EVERY MONTH
By FREDERIC j. HAsKIN.

REI Oh Il En- L NUN II
BY FREDERIC j. HASKIN.
WASHINGTON, July 27.-The govern
ment soothsayers. prophets Of the future,
jewellers of things that are to be, are
just now coming to the end Of stress
tut season.
They have again been asked to give
the answer. far in advance of a normal
-eYeIation of the facts, to the vital ques-
ZION. How mucn food Will America con-
tribute to a hungry world: ?"
They are the men who operate the
bureau Of crop estimates of the depart
ment of agriculture, and 1t is no sman
task to tell in advance the likely yield,
year by year, from all the farm lands
81 the United States.
The government, month by month, as
the season advances, complies all the
information that it can get. and from
that information draws the best con-
illusions that its experience and wis
dom make possible as to the amount n
wheat. corn. cotton and other crops thas
are to come from the soil.
1t gives this information TO the wall
street broker. to the dealer. the con-
sumer, the farmer. to everybody.
1t does this that the sophisticated
among the hundred million may not nave
an advantage over the unsophlSticated,
that markets may not be juggIed on
false information. that whoever buys or
sells these staples may have the facts
upon which to base a judgment of their
value.
Every month during the spring and
summer the bureau of crop estimates
issues a statement in which 1t reviews
I Errarr those
facts what the yield. should be-
1t finds out as nearly as it can how
many acres have been planted TO the
different crops and the conditions under
which these crops are growing
1t COMPARES the acreage and conditions
with similar reports from past years.
IT reaches the conclusion that the logi-
cal yield under the circumstances should
be this figure or that.
It shows how the estimate compares
with the crop of last year and with the
crop Of the average year
This is necessary because the con-
sumption of a product like wheat is con
slant and q yardstick must be furnished
nv which TO measure prospective prices
II Is an infinitely difficult thing to
find out in April, for instance, Just now
many acres have been planted in wheat
between Maine snd Oregon.
DEPARTMENT HAS
$4,000 REPORTERS
The department however, has about
215,OOO reporters
Each of these is q man who is close 10
the soH In his community. Each makes
mn statement in which he estimates
that the acreage N his community Is nor
mai 10 ner cent above Is per cent De-
low. or whatever he believes 1t TO De.
Three estimates come IN from every
community. and the average OF these
three is likely TO be a nearly correct es-
innate.
If this estimate is too nigh It IS likely
10 be counteracted by an estimate from
another community which is too low
The average Of all estimates from al
sources is likely to be quite close to the
facts.
with the acreage determined as near
II as possible, the department asks FOR
reports, month by month, on the cond1-
ton Of the crop.
Is It normal, or better or worse than
normal?
It's 215.OOO reporters send in details on
this subject
Acreage and condition being deter
mined the crop probabilities are hgured
out
The man in d township. having a
bumper crop or poor one, might con-
cIuda that the nstion would be overfed
or starved according TO his prospects
The county agent might draw different
conclusions from his outlook.
The field agent representing great
state might register gloom or optimism
according TO his lights. But the individ-
nal reckoning Of any one Of these IS On
too narrow plane.
Even the prospective yield of this most
productive nation might be counteracted
by world conditions
ALL RECORDS
ARE COMBINED.
So the reports from the townships must
be combined with counties. counties with
states, states with the nation.
The whole program must be repeated
every month.
g, Judgment and knowledge must be ap-
piled to the process at every step.
And It has to be done on schedule
time.
The bureau must not go far wrong
because the-crop will soon be harvested
and the actual figures revealed.
For twenty years the estimates have,
on the average, been within IA per cent
of the crop.
Thirteen times the department has IN
derestimated the crop. and seven times
ie has overestimated It.
When the estimates are ready for an
nouncement an event of Importance Is
staged.
The government announcement Of the
probability Of a poor yield of cotton or
a good yield Of rice will have a definite
influence on the market-wfl send the
price Of a particular staple up or down.
If an interested party knew the facts
In advance he could make a fortune.
Therefore, on announcement DAYS, the
workers in the bureau In Washington
must bring their lunches because they
are locked in until the figures are finally