Atlanta tri-weekly journal. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1920-19??, 1920-05-13
THE CROP OUTLOOK
By Frederic J. HaSkin
wy ASHINGTON, D. c., May s.
M Remarkably unfaVorable
w weather combined with


United States this year perhaps the
worst the country has ever faced.
This is the gist of an interview
with Leon Estabrook, chief of the
bureau of crop estimates of the de-
apartment of agriculture.
Mr.. Estabrook says that from now
on weather will be the decisive fac
tor. If it is favorable we need not
worry; we will have enough to eat
and a small surplus for export. If
1t is fair, we will probably have just
about enough for our use. If the
growing season is markedly unfaVor-
able, the United States may for the
first time in it's history fail to pro-
duce enough foodstuffs for domestic
consumption.
There are, Mr.. Estabrook explains,
production-the farm acreage, labor
and weather. AS a result of a labor
shortage and unfavorable weather
conditions, the acreage planted in the
United States this year is below nor
NAL. Thus all three factors are ad-
verse to large production.
The chief unfavorable weather con-
dition so far is a late spring. The
season is from two to five weeks late
spring in one section Of the country
is not unusual, but late spring all
over the country does not occur once
in twenty years.
AS a result of this late spring,
with much rain, blowing and plant
section. Oats in Maryland and Vir-
ginia, for example, should have been
planted about March Is. For the
most part, the land in which they
should have been planted has not
even been plowed. -, The land has been
too wet for ploWihg. 1t would not
"hold up horse" and besides if
land is plowed when too wet, it COM
pacts and cannot be cultivated. AS
a result of these conditions, many
farmers in this section will not
plant any oats at all.
Cotton has suffered in much the
same way. An early planting of cot
ton is necessary, not only because
cotton needs a long growing season,
but also because the crop must be
matured early to escape the ravages
of the boil weevil. In the more
northern cotton states it has been
impossible to plant the crop at the
ground. The result is that some
farmers will not plant cotton, and
that some crops will grow up late at
the mercy of the boil weev1l.
These are merely examples. Many
other crops are equally threatened by
the late season. The thing needed
above all is a warm period without
rain. Farmers say that it has rained
every Friday for months. A couple
of rainleSS weeks now would be a
Godsend.
The rain will be needed later. If
this late spring is followed by a dry
summer, it will be a catastrophe, be-
cause the young plants, started late,
will be unable to resist drouth.
Aside from the lateness of the sea-
son, many farmers are forced to
they cannot get labor to help them
in planting and blowing, and they do
not see much prospect of getting the
necessary help in harvest time. The
tendency, as shown by reports COM
ing to the bureau of crop estimates,
he can handle comfortably with the
help of his family. The fact that
prices Of farm products are showing
a tendency to fall without the ulti-
mate consumer getting any of the
benefft) is also discouraging the
of hogs, for example, have fallen 20
per cent, although pork has not fall
en- nearly that much. And the farm
er is told that prices of foodstuffS
are going still lower. Therefore he
is not enthusiastic for large plant
:ngs.
But the shortage of labor, next tc
in keeping down the acreage. There
are several causes for this short
age. One of the most immediate is
the great activity in road building
In almost every section. of the coun.
try roads are being built by fedora
aid, and farm labor is turning. to
the roads. A hired man on a farm
makes from $65 to 500 a month anc
his board The road gangs Offer
him from 81 to SIS a day. The work
Industry in the cities is also
draining the farm labor supply, as i
has always done. A very usua
thing these days is for a young mar
raised on a farm, and having some
aptitude for tools, to go to the ct!
from 81 to $12 u day, which is more
than a whole family can earn on G
farm. Besides this, he has more
amusements and more opportunities
for education and progress.
The draft took about two million
young men from the farms. While
they were gone, the old folks. the
women and the children pitched il
and worked as the farm population
of this country never worked before
labor from the cities to some ex'
tent. They not only kept the fields
planted, but increased the total farm
acreage about ten per. cent.
Now, with no. price guarantee
and with prices for farm products
ing to make any such heroic efforts
again. And the young men are not
coming back to the farms. D1scharg
ed from the army, they are staying
in the cities finding places in in
hinn n l<n tho Ia hnr ShOrf9 l.
ly acute. The bureau estimates
that the farm labor supply of the
country as whole is thirty pei
cent less than normal.
The only crop upon which an esti-
mate in figures can be placed is the
is the most important one.
The United States needs about ESQ.,
100000 bushels of wheat for do
nestle consumption. This is the
amount that we must produce if yoU
and 1 are to get our regular rations
of bread and butter.
The winter wheat crop alone last
year was 732,000,000 bushels. This
year it is estimated that it will be
4S3, 100000 bushels.
was 209,000,000 bushels. 1t cannot
be estimated this year yet, but ii
will certainly be smaller. 1t is evil
dent that if the spring wheat crop
is as much below normal as the
winter wheat crop, our production OF
wheat will scarcely be what we need
for home use. 1t is also evident that
very unfavorable season might
make production considerably less
than domestic need.
The danger of shortage of bread
stuffs is practically abolished by the
fact that we have a carry-over from
the bumper crop of last year Of
about 1OO,000,0O0 bushels. But it is
clear that the United States has
passed the day when its food pro
duction is vastly more than its
need.
At the root Of the matter lies the
fact that the farmer, despite many
claims to the contrary, is not max
ing enough money to keep him on
the farm. He cannot make, inter
est on the money invested in his
land and also a fair wage for him
self. 1t pays him better to sell the
land, invest the money at six per
cent, and himself get a job in a fac
tory, This would be the eXpedient