Evening star., 1920-02-08
j. s. TRADE WINDS SHIFTING

Away from Europe. which has just
another 10000
Toward Orient and 100000 in loans.
the United States
So"'AA trade winds are
shifting: away from the nations of
Europe, which today are demanding
materials of all sorts in quantities
that cannot be supplied, and to the
orient and South America the streams
of commerce must flow.
This is no whim of a new era of
international relations and sentiment.
but in .ccordance with carefully fig
ured out principles of business eff
cheney.
The orient and South America offer
trade and investment opportunities
that best link in with the Industrial
life of the United States.
FinancierS are concerned that the
United States is dangerously near top
pling off a gold basis. Chairman
Fordney of the ways and means COM
mittee points out that the balance OF
trade between the United States and
Europe has been in favor of the
United States-with Europe maintain
ing an embargo against shipment of
gold, and little of it there to hold.
He points out that as between the
United States and the orient and
South America the balance of trade
is in favor of those regions-with gold
from the United States flowing to the
orient and South America in payment.
On
matters by increasing our exports in
those directions.
The new Secretary OF Commerce. ].
W. Alexander, has made careful sur
. 'u,. -. vey or the
Secretary Alexander trade situation
Sees Tendency. and ana,vzea
the most recent commerce statistics
for the United States. He advises the
American exporters and the American
capitalists that their best opportunity
for the future lies in judicious devel-
opment Of markets in the orient and
in South America.
This seems hardly believable in
view Of the fact that Europe has al
ways been the best customer of the
than one-half Of our total exports
and still further in view of the tre
mendous demand Europe is now max
ing and coupled with Europe's incal-
culable requirements for many years
to come. But when one goes over the
analysis Of trade with Secretary Alex
ander a new Interpretation is found.
Europe's demand for the next few
years will be heaviest in the lines of
raw materials and foodstuffs. II the
present condition Of deprecated ee-
change rates continues for any length
chases from US will be restricted to
those necessities that cannot be pur-
chased anywhere else. AS soon as the
highly developed manufacturing coun-
tries-England, France, Belgium and
possibly Germany-are again able to
port they will probably be in a posi-
ton to underbid US. so far as Euro
pean and adjacent countries are con-
cerned.
The continued expansion in recent
years of our export trade with South
American, far east
An Encouraging ern and other coun-
tries, whose manu-
Development. ,acturing industries
are not yet highly developed, is, there
fore, one of the most encouraging fea-
lures of our foreign trade. "Our most
promising possibilities for extending
our export trade would seem to lie in
these directions" Secretary Alexander
says, "and the exchange of our manu-
features for their raw materials and
tropical fruit products should result
in a lasting and profitable trade"
Oficials Of the Commerce Depart
ment, who have been studying the
foreign trade outlook, say it is OBJ
yious that the increased shipments
to Europe of raw materials and food
stufYs are not due to superior sales
manship or special inducements In
competition with other exporting
countries, but are the result OF strong
demand in Europe for commodities in
dispensable for reconstruction work.
cient quantity only in America and
are bought where they can be had,
the price being largely secondary
consideration, especially II hberai
credit terms are made.
Expansion of American exports to
Europe have been mostly in trade
with neutral and allied countries. Ac-
cording to all reports the need for
supplies is just as pressing in the CEN
trail countries, but it has taken longer1
to arrange for re-establishment OF
trade connections. AS soon as peace
is declared it is reasonable to expect
that trade with these central coun-
tries will, to a certain extent. take the
place of the present volume Of trade
with the allies and neutral countries.
So, exports would seem to have a
tendency to continue at their present
high level. Notwithstanding adverse
can finance long term credits.
Now look at the Latin American
countries. They are all capital-im-
porting, with extensive
Imnorf.rs natural resources cap
able of big development.
oA CaPltai. so they are attractive
fields for investment. Prior to 1914
they borrowed in Europe for capital
to build railroads, open up ports and
construct other public works. Since
1914 European investment In South
America has been very small. Due to