New-York tribune., 1919-10-05
Lord Fishers Prophecy


storm OF surprise, tinged in certain
circles with Indignation, was aroused
the other day in England by letter to
the editor of 7'he London Times from
Admiral Of the Fleet Lord Fisher, urg-
ing the reduction of the navy estimates
from the proposed f140,00O,0OO to e34,-
100000. Yet there is perhaps no man in
the world taday who is entitled tc cccat
OF matters of sea warfare with greater
authority than the veteran builder of the
British Grand Fleet. The late Admiral
Sir Robert Arbuthnot, Who met his death
at the Battle Of Jutland, while showing
friend the Grand Fleet in 1914 at Spit
head, said: "This modern navy is Lord
Fisher-everything here is of his origi-
nation
Lord Fisher is more than the builder
of the modern British navy. He was
sponsor for the strategy which was the
fundamental premise of Allied victory,
namely, the concentration of an over
whelming part of Britains naval forces
in home waters. That plan was forced
through by Admiral Fisher against vio-
lent opposition. He acted on Nelson's
principle that your battle ground should
be your drill ground"
Lord Fisher does not deny that in urg-
ing the reduction of naval expenditure
he has definite plan up his sleeve. Only
he refuses to proclaim to the world in
general what this plan is, and quotes
Burle's saying: II will not give my plan
unless have the execution of it,
In the main outline, however, i. is not
difficult to trace Lord Fishers reasoning.
He is emphatically against waste, and he
points to the fact that half of the present
British navy wants scrapping and the
other half will be equally useless in a
very few years" Already in 1878 he
summed up the principle of naval devel-
opment discovered by himself in the fol-
lowing couplet:
Build few and build fast,
Each one better than the last"
piece of poetry which he, casting false
modesty aside does not hesitate to de-
scribe as immortal.
"But," he continues, Il know admirals
in the navy who love patches; and so the
whole damned lot becomes obsolete at the
same time" He protests against the i'm
putation that he wants to stop shipbuild-
ing altogether with an emphasis not fire.
quently met with in the dignifed columns
Of The Times. "lf some congenital
idiot imagines that | should cease all
shipbuilding-well, he is the stupid ass
he was born" And here he gives an
inkling of the scheme which for the time
he refuses to divulge in detail "Our
stupid people do not believe in the inter
nal combustion engine or in oil. l have
faith in both. Those two are not only
going to revolutionize sea war; they are
going to revolutionize sea commerce."
The lesson is to build inexpensive YES
sells for experimenting with the internal
combustion engine and for carrying oil.
For "to navigate submersible craft you
must have the internal combustion en-
gine and oil'; and-here is the core Of
the whole matter--the future belongs to
the submersible craft, because "air fight
ing possesses possibilities of sinking all
manner of surface ships so effectually
that submersible vessels will be a neces-
sity."
The lessons of the last five years have
taught the world to discount prophecies.
But Lord Fisher is prophet whose pre-
dictions have an almost uncanny quality
Of coming true, and when he now speaks
of the decisive role of aircraft in naval
fighting it should be remembered that
one of the salient features of the world
war, the Importance of the submarine,
had also been foretold years ahead by
Admiral Sir Percy Scott, and that his
forecast, when first uttered, was also re-
ceived skeptically.