New-York tribune., 1919-02-08
Lower Trend of
Prices Is More !
Clearly Defined
Divergent Views ON Business
Outlook Run to En-
tremes; Confidence Shown
Along With Conservatism
By Archer Wall Douglas


The business world is wondering and
speeulating as to what the next six
months hold in store Prophets are not
lacking, and their forecasts vary from
dire predictions of bread lines to rose
water prophecies Of unending prosper
lty accompanied by high prices and far
flung, worldwide commerce on the
seven seas. rs
The facts of the situation as lit
exists to-day suggest that: ss
Conditions throughout the country
are unusually sound, save in those
comparatively few districts where
drouth and heat last summer de-
stroyed the crops. Even in these sec
tions, especially the extreme North
west and Southwest, the soil is now
fairly saturated with moisture. giving
the best promise for crops this coming
season.
In the agricultural sections the har-
vest of 1913 in general was abundaiit
and brought more remunerative prices
than the farmer has ever before
known. There is still large propors
tion of the 1918 yields unsold in the
hands of the farmer $50
In the industrial centres. while bust
ness continues good, prosperity is un-
questionably ebbing. Manufacturers
are having little difficulty in filling or
ders, as the cessation of government
war demands is not fully compensated
by civilian business. 90
There is practically no building of
any moment and great constructive en-
terprises are in allegiance. There is no
general expectation of anything more
than moderate revival in construc-
tion and development work during the
next six months. especially in The
large centres, for there is a general
realization that building booms do not
start from such high levels as prevail
at present.
Throughout the country the belief is
general that prices must decline before
there can be any great renewal of
building. ,,
Prices generally, in fact, already are
declining, and unquestionably will con-
tinue to do so. Various crude forms Of
IL OIl anu SISSlf StoPiS SOSLOii AapttSr
and drugs and chemicals are now
selling at lower levels, and some forms
of finished material have also been af-
fected. nA
The period soon will arrive when
manufacturers, having filled the do
mestc orders which they have SO long
had on their books, will find themselves
confronted with the necessity of Sc
curing new business. -"
Ona vital foo+ura of ha citnaf op
is the upholdng by the government of
the prices of staple food products, FOR
! instance, wheat and hogs. In both
cases this sympathetically affects the
value of corn and oats ard feed for
livestock. The general belief is that
the government will find it both wise
and necessary to abandon before long
the upholding Of the price of hogs and
will alter the form of it's guarantee
on wheat, possibly changing it to
direct payment to the farmer instead
Of as now forcing the miller and fhe
buyer of wheat to pay the prevailing
price. Should the government make
change of this kind in the nature of its
guarantee, and wheat then be sold sub
ject to the natural laws of supply and
demand, it would certainly reach
level which has relation to export bust
ness and competition from other wheat
exporting countries, such as Argentina,
Australia and India. Such a happening
is bound to have strong sympathetic
depressing effect upon the price iof
food products in this country
At present we are much inclined, for
different reasons, political, economic
and social, to have every one takaia
hand in the tremendous difficulties
which lie ahead of US, rather than wait
the painful and long drawn out process
of nature. just how far we shall sue
ceed is largely speculation, but it is a
fairly safe prophecy that nothing per
manent will be accomplished save
through the operation of natural laws
In medical phrase, our remedies will
probably be palliative rather than
remedial