The sun., 1919-04-29
BANK OF COMMERCE
ADVISES CAUTION
Warns Period Of Readjustment
Will Follow Signing of
Peace.
HOPEFUL OVER CANADA
Sees the Groundwork Already
Laid for Period Of Pros
perity.
HOPEFUL OVER CANADA

Caution in the conduct of business for
the next few months Is urged by the
Canadian Bank Of Commerce in its
monthly discussion of commercial condi-
lions issued yesterday. Calling atten-
ton to the fact that under no circum-
stances does uncertainty conduce to
healthy expansion In production or In
trade. the bank predicts that uncertainty
will continue to exist until the terms
Of peace have been finally settled and
have been accepted by the enemy coun-
tries. II adds:
| Even after the belligerent nations
know and understand the terms on
which peace Is to be based further
period Of readjustment will be certain
to intervene, especially 50 far as for
eIgn trade is concerned. and II may take
S1me tirhe for business to settle down."
From such advices as 1t is possible to
Obtain" continues the letter. 1T Is gen.
orally assumed that We are very near to
a peace settlement and this has led to
active preparations for carrying on the
work Of the country In a normal way
| AS yet however, conditions are far from
permitting this. Productive activity and
| business Organization will not proceed
confidently until the regulations and re-
| removed. Relatively speaking. however.
| business conditions In Canada are such
| as to justify hopefulness. Prices OF
home products remain firm and stocks
| on hand are considerable.
Lack OF ships Hampers Exports.
Exports have been hampered by Lack
| OF tonnage and by the delay In COM
| pletinS financial arrangements, which
| remain more or less under International
control. but In spite OF these handicaps
II will be noted from the trade returns
up to the end OF February that domes-
tic products are being exported on a
| much greater scale than before the war
| and we may look forward to continued
| expectation on a large scale OF products
OF the mines, the fisheries and the forest.
| Animal products are also being ex-
ported to greater extent than usual.
The decline in exports OF manufac-
lures is. OF course. due TO the stoppage
\ OF munition orders. and the decline in
| the value of agricultural products ex-
ported In February is due solely to the
fact that large stocks already sold are
merely awaiting shipment. Tonnage is
| now becoming available for the ship
| ment OF lumber and other goods already
| sold. and this should result in con-
siderable reduction in current loans.
which on this account are considerably
| larger than In previous years"
Despite the note of caution a picture
| or satisfactory commercial conditions
and comfortable outlook Is drawn by the
| bank. which says: Seeding operations
are commencing under favorable weather
conditions all over the Dominion. The
extent Of fall ploughing in the season
or 1913 tnsures an acreage under crop
that will be fully up to the average
The present high prices for animal prod
| ucts and the prospect that they will con-
tinue for a considerable period should
| stimulate efforts to grow fodder crops
| on larger scale than usual. Fall wheat
| has como through the winter satisfac-
| torily.
| Wholesalers in general are actively
| employed in filling orders to meet day
| to day requirements, but buyers are
only committing themselves TO purcha ses
that they can turn over quickly, under
| the impression that prices will decline
| further and that there can be no sta
| biltty until the terms OF peace are finally
| arranged and foreign business Is on a
more stable basis. Quite a number OF
industries report the employment OF
more hands at present than during the
war period.
| "On the Pacific coast uneasine per-
sists regarding the salmon industry
Last year the run on the Fraser River
was again a failure. and that district
may be said to be no longer a serious
factor IN the trade. For the coming
season the outlook for this industry is
doubtful. The growing scarcity OF the
higher grades of fish may improve the
| market for the lower grades, which were
taken last year by the British Govern
| ment. 1t 10 understood that this year
that Government will not be In the mar
ket and selling conditions will conse-
Quently return to normal The increased
pack and tho larger profits made during
the last two years were a result of pack
ing tho lower grade of fish. for whic
there Is TO market in this country. Pres
ent contracts are for red or higher
grade fish and are on the basis OF lower
prices than a year ago. There Is a con-
siderable surplus Of herring on the At.
lantic coast