The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1919-07-03
is OPTIMISTIC ON
BUSINESS FUTURE
Federal Reserve Board Sees
Prosperous Outlook for
Most Districts.
PREDICT HEAVY RETURNS
Renews Warning Against I'm
due Speculation in Monthly
Statement.
PREDICT HEAVY RETURNS

WASHINGTON, July 2.-Optfmism as to
the business outlook. reported to-day in
the Federal Reserve Boards monthly
statement of conditions was tempered
with renewed warning against undue
speculation.
I'm nearly all the districts" the state
ment said. "the opinion Is entertained
that the prospects for successful and
prosperous year. with very large output
Of goods and almost unprecedented
financial returns to manufacturers, agri-
culturists and laborers. are positive. The
possibility that speculation may be car
ried too far and may exert an injurious
influence, aided and furthered by the
existence OF free credit and speculative
tendencies, appears as the principal on
setting influence in the situation"
Prices continued to rise throughout
June. the statement showed, and an enor-
mously heavy demand for goods for ex-
port had rendered products in many
lines scarce. In nearly all districts II
was reported business men had decided
that they could rely for long time on
heavy demand and continuously sus-
tanned prices, while a feeling of appre-
hension entertained early in the year
was disappearing. jobbers and retailers
| readily entering into large commitments
for fall and winter.
Harvests to Break Record.
In many respects agricultural pros
poets of early spring are being more
than justified. Wheat, corn. cotton, to-
bacco and Pacific coast crops will be
harvested in record quantities. Live stock
continues high in price.
Steel and iron experienced distinct
| turn for the better. The fuel situation
has been much below normal, with pros
poets Of a tight situation during next
! winter The metal mining industry
again was Improving.
| Manufacturing likewise took a strong
upward turn during June. Demand for
| fine cotton goods exceeds production.
Shoe factories are producing at maxi
mum capacity. but heavy demand from
| Europe has drawn OF much of the avail
| able supply. Wool products are sold
ahead for months. Automobile manufac-
! turing is running in many, plants at
| record levels.
Building shows continuation of the
| revival noted In previous months. Heavy
buying OF lumber by retailers has be-
come general. There is much trading In
houses and business property.
| The labor situation has reached q
distinctly advanced stage of full en-
| ployment," the statement said. There
Is apparently no present condition OF
unemployment, indeed many industries
| report they cannot get the men they
need. while wages are fully up to pas,
levels or higher.
No Drop I'm Wage Scales Foreseen.
The requirements for farm help are
| absorbing surplus labor in practically
all parts of the country. There Is some
| surplus of unskilled workers in some
| centres. but this is not different from
the condition In normal times No reduc-
| ton in wage scales is foreseen.
lone OF the principal problems ir
the labor situation noted by thonghtfu
observers is the fact that clerks ant
office employees, as we'll as other work
ers receiving more or less fixed incomes
have not participated in the advanc,
In wages. Improvement for thes,
classes of workers will be necessary 1
prices are to continue at their presen
level. but win OF course add correspond
ingly to the cost OF business to TIL
Government.
| Returning soldiers are being rapidl,
and steadily absorbed into business an,
the problem which for a time SCENE,
to threaten in this connection Is ap
parently minimized in all directions
From the farming districts PARTICULAR
comes the report that the supply O
labor Is scanty. and likely to prov
, more so as business progresses"
Government credit was reported 4
good condition. as evidenced by the hsg'
and rising market for Liberty bond
OF practically all issues. particular
| Victory notes