New-York tribune., 1919-04-21
Guarantees of Peace
VI. Vigilance and Preparedne IS

The peace which the Paris Conference
signs cannot be guaranteed by paper
pledges. The treaty will be no stronger
than the military power available for its
enforcement
The German character has not altered
since the war. Germany is still unre-
pehtaht and truculent. Commander Dost, i,
IT the German navy. who came to this
elty few days ago rs assistant to lhe
American officers hHgiRafi1R the kuiset.
~ AuRHste Nietofln, spoke the truth
when he said "Ii Is the feeling of The
people that Germany VIII Fight npnip. It
IS point Of honor with US. We Won't
let them rob U.s."
No treaty can be wisely made ut this
time except ON the assumption TINT Ger
many will obstruct its execution and re-
pudiate IT whenever she feels able to do
20. Prussia rose after she had been held
in subiocton for six years by Napoleon
/. The Germany Of to-day viii look
upon the Treaty Of Versailles as another
Treaty of Tilsit.
The situation III Central and Eastern
Europe after the war will invite the sort
of intrigue in which Germany is most
proficient. Within a few weeks German
agents have been caught melting the
German population Of Bohemia and the
Hungarian population of Eastern So-
vakia to rise against the new Czecho-
Slovak government. The Ebert regime
IS in touch with Lenne and Trotzky. 1t
looks on revolutionary Russia as futura
ally.
Marshal foch speaks the language of
natterof-fact military prudence (Which
IS very different from the language Of
academic and visionary statesmanshipj
when he warns the political peace
makers:
Owe must stay on the Rhine it is our
only safety. We must double-lock the
ioor. Remember, those seventy million
Germans viii always be a menace to us.
They arc envious and warlke people.
Their characteristics have not changed.
Do not trust the appearances of the mo-
ment'
The Society of Nations is a sword of
lath. 1t is too frail an instrumcntaltv
to be saddled with the enforcement Of
the peace treaty. 1t is a merely deter
rent agency, with no resources bevond
those of moral suason 1t cannot meet
military emergency. 1t is as incapable
Of unity Of decision and action as the
Entente powers were up to the closing
months Of the war. Little effective
pressure can be brought to bear on de-
tant Germany if the world has to de-
pend on the uncertain sanctions Of an in
ternational Sewing circle
If the Paris Conference hopeg 10 quar-
antee the peace of Europe it viii have to
give up the illusion that Gcrmany's sig
nature attached to a treaty is worth
anything in the way of a safeguard.
The reparations assessed against Ger
many can be collected only if the Ger
man power to annul them is kept in
check by military means. All other
means are of secondary Importance.
France, with less than 4O,0O0,0OO in
habitants, is to be left on guard on Ger
manys western frontier She cannot
close that frontier unless she holds the
entire Rhine barrier. Anything that
heips her to maintain the watch Of civ.
illzatlon on the Rhine, therefore. guar.
antees peace. To deny the French a free
hand IN the Rhine Valley is to feed the
German desire for vengeance. Similarly
to deny Poland control of the Vistula
Valley and full possession of the port OF
Danzlg weakens the equally important
barrier which Allied policy requires tc
be set up between disgruntled German,
and Bolshevist Russia. A strong France
strong Poland, a strong Slovakia. Ru
mania and ltaly-these are the best pos
s'ble and only practical guarantees OF
stabilization in Europe for the next twt
or three Decades
Dispatches from Paris are filled will
hints Of a new political and military al
lance, entered into by the United States
Great Britain and France, for the en-
forcement Of the terms Of the treaty
with Germany This alliance is out
side the Society Of Nations and is or
1ts face Il confession Of the lattcr's prac.
teal insdffcency. But if the urgency
OF the situation compcls such measure
OF reinsurance, how short-sighted it is
u whittle away here and there the
military guarantees which France asks
Or Poland, or Rumania, or Italv7
III the United States and Great Brit
am look forward 10 fighting Germany
again, az Germany undoubtedly looks
forward TO fighting them, there should