Richmond times-dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1914-current, 1919-01-02
EXPECT BROAD, ACTIVE
SECURITY MARKET IN 1878
After tho Industrial Situation
Is Rcadjustcd.
RAILWAY STOCKS FEATURE
Thomas G. Shotwcll Declares the
Issues Have Been Highly Specula-
tive, u Condition Not Influenced by
the Earnings.
ny THOMAS G. sHor,vEI.L.

NEW YORK, January lit is easy
to find reasons for expecting broad,
Ectivo security market In 1919. Some
OF the best are found in the action OF
tho market in the year just closed. In
addition to these there are new factors
that can go into operation only after
the industrial situation Is readjusted to
peace basis.
The chief reason found in tho course
of the market In 1918 for the activity
OF the market In 1919. is tho fact that
in 1918 stocks did not discount the
wonderful prosperity that had come to
America as a result OF the war. Re-
markablc methods were adopted By
those in control OF tho bank loans TO
prevent stock market appraisal OF the
that prices OF stock never did have
the advance that they normally would
have LAD.
Tho year 1918 opened with a some
what buoyant movement i'm railroad
stacks at a result OF the taking over
OF control. by the government. Several
railroads were xerging. on bankruptcy.
and would have been in the hands OF
receivers had conditions remained un-
changed six months longer.
STILL OPEN QUESTION AS
TO RAILWAY OWNERSHIP
1t Is still an open question whether
roads back 10 tho private owners and,
II 30. whether the conditions will he
any better than when they were taken
over
This uncertainty leaves all railroad
securities questionable investments.
Many OF the underlying bonds arc.
OF course. perfectly safe, but all rail
road stocks have become highly specu-
lattvc and have become so without the
saving grace OF being influenced by
e earn .s,; Nobody knows what any
der conditions that arc liable TO exist
for tho next few years.
ihus a vast percentage of the capital
involved In tho stock market has been
placed in jeopardy and the vitality OF
All security markets has thus been
slapped.
Industrials. on their part. have been
adversely affected by the end OF tho
war. Az early as July. leaders of high
inance who arc In close touch with the
military situation. knew that peace
bought stocks freely and had a buoy
ana market In progress soon after the
G ~, were turned back from Paris.
TUG nuoIic was willing TO participate
IN the market but. by using the power
or the Federal Reserve Bank. loans
were limited and the buying and sell
ing o, stocks on margin was branded
business. TO such an extent that Tho
public was frightened away from Wall
street; SO rich men still hold the stocks
Ihat is one OF tho great reasons why
an active market is expected In 1919
INDUSTRIES GETTING hack
TO PEACE-TIME BASIs
The other reasons for believing I'm
a better market are found in the quick
adjustments being made TO peace
basis In all Industries and In the i'm
proved outlook for crops. The winter
wheat crop for 1919 promises TO break
even the wonderful record of 1914 and
1918, and the worlds interest in farm
Ing has been SO aroused that there is
little doubt Of records In other crops II
the weather be favorable
Big crops IN America will mean pros-
3erity because now that the whole
world Is at peace there will bo an nm
limited market for all that can be
RAISED There VIII he an absence OF tho
losses that distinguished the last four
The war has left one-third Of tho
worlds god in America. II has loft this
country further advanced in practically
every business enterprise than /. woiIl1
nave eec7 in a hundred years OF peace
rms country got just deep enough in
the wa to get all it's benefits. hut little
OF It's losses. In addition 10 that il is
thS histEy Of all wars that they are
foiInwed'by business Improvement
The stock market Is nothing liz, n
barometer and Thermometer o. tho
Wor!ds life. and az such II must reci.;
Yer ,hiBher values simply because ,rcse
HIShcr values I ow exist