The sun., 1919-07-16
DISCUSS .TREATY'S
ECONOMIC EFFECT
Trust Company Considers the
Future Trade Relations of
Signatories.
ALL MARKETS TO EXPAND
Many Years Will Be Needed to
Make Clear Implications
of Document.

sible extent to which Its operation may
determine future commercial and indus
trial relations between its signatory pow
ers are discussed in the current issue of
Ameridn Goods and Foreign Markets,
the semi-monthly rcview of foreign
trade relations of the Guaranty Trust
Company OF New, York. The article
says In part:
The several peace treaties have eco
nomic Implications which will require
many years to become clear. The mere
athxing Of the official seals and the rati-
fication by the several nations, which Is
expected to follow. do not automatically
usher In the new era. II Is the execution
OF the treaty and the utilization Of the
extra treaty forces, which are abroad in
the world, that will determine the future
development of nations and SO the course
OF industry and commerce.
in Its main features the treaty is ex-
plicit enough and. unless other forces
not comprehended change the aspect OF
the world, 1t is perhaps possible to state
In general and qualified terms some OF
the outstanding features of the present
economic international situation and in
dictate main factors which may operate
in establishment OF new trade relations.
Germany loses much of her coal and
iron In the settlement. Although freed
of the cost of maintaing an immense mill
tary and naval establishment, she must
pay not alone her debts to her own peo-
pie. which she may presently decide to
repudiate, though. of course without
using the word. but also the indemnity
imposed by the Allies. She is stripped of
colonies and merchant marine and much
of the commercial and Industrial estab-
lishment in other countries. She must
resume operations almost at the begin
Nning and carry on trade under double
handicap of tremendous external debt
and vast loss of prestige. Her new Gov
eminent cannot be expected to counte-
nance trade practices Of the past. which
we're a burden upon the great mass of
her people.
o'"e IFeoe Foiics OF FRANCE
To-day France faces a new regime as
different from the old as a bee from a
butterfly. The restoration of Alsace and
Lorraine and the control of the coal of
the Sarre Valley give her an opportunity
for Industrial expansion in the sense in
which that term is Usually used in this
country She lost 30 great a proportion
of her skilled workers that she will be
forced to adopt changed methods of pro-
ddction, which, fortunately enough, are
best applied to the heavier Industries.
Thus it is not surprising to see the
French planning to turn out an automo-
bile almost on a par in first cost and in
operation expense with the cheap and
popular American makes. Compare such
a product with the types Of motor with
which We associate France to-day and
made granite.
There is another force making. for the
development IN france OF an ehporeaeie
surplus or a magnitude hitherto un-
dreamed OF The great external oeDt
can be PAID IN the last anaiysis oniy IN
goods Great changes WIN nave 10 DC
made IN the government hscai policy,
and future dependence ana tne future
budgets OF the country VIII almost
surely De nnancen win create. weisht
laio upon taxation lhah upon ooho 's
sues.
separated from the scene Oh the ue-
Gliding struggle by haf the circumter-
ence OF the earth, IL is nevertheless true
that OF all the chief beiiigerents Japan
energies with the greatest proportional
increase OF power ana prestlge ana the
best prospect Tor immediate material gam.
Half century ago Japan was an Isolated
and unimportant little country. over
populated and ekeing out q pare agra
rian existence with little or no contact
with the world. To-day she STANDS &C
cepted as one or the great Powers OF
the earth. Her Industrial capacuy mas
been doubled py the demands "nich .ne
Far East has made upon her during the
war She 10 established IN markets INTO
which she had barely entered at the out
break or hostilities.
VI
~Her4 expedition to Siberia has given
her a sort of prior right in that coun-
try when It Is finally opened to free
trading, and through the Dutch East
Indies, Australia, British India and
other Eastern regions her goods are
known and accepted as never before.
But greatest Of all must stand her
new influence in China. crowned by the
temporary heritage Of the German con-
cession in Shantung.
Japan has been called the Great
Britain Of the East. There is no doubt
that her geographical position as well
as the temperament and ability OF her
people make It appear that she has
barely begun to exert her influence upon
the world OF trade and industry.
'"rhe most casual student cannot fall
TO see that the nations OF the Allies are
-. g. ,.,t,,oh that ~ GaT.nna nv ia de-