Evening star., 1919-08-30
VOTE ON TREATY
IN SEPT:F0RECAST
Mr.. Lawrence Discusses Re-
publican Division and Pres
ident's Speaking Trip.
SHANTUNG AND LEAGUE

BY DAVID LAWRENCE.

Nearly two months have elapsed
since President Wilson brought back
the treaty of peace from Europe. And
the pact which took six feverish
months to draft and bring agreement
among twenty nations is still unrati-
fled by the United States. Great Brit
ain and Belgium have ratified 1t. but
France IS waiting for the United
States and so is Japan The American
Senate will vote on the issue within
the next thirty days. Looking back
over the erratic though persistent
believe the treaty ought not to be rati-
fled, even though it means a new peace
conference at Paris, a survey of the
situation today reveals the opponents
of the treaty in much. more danger
GUS position, strategically speaking.
than its defenders.
Two weeks ago it was the friends
of the treaty who thought their
chances of getting the treaty ratified
without reservations were slim, but
unless the Senate foreign relations
committee completely reverses itself
the conclusion is inescapable that de-
feat is in store for the committee on
several important points. including
ShaHtung.
Would Put Shantung Up to League
There is no question that a large
number of senator's, including many
democratic supporters of the Presi-
dent do not like the Shantung settle
ment. but 1t is also true that they do
not believe the way to secure a re-
vision of that settlement is by re-
convening the peace conference at
Paris-for they do not believe Shan
tung is worth it. They would prefer,
however. separate declaration by the
United States which would voice dis
approval and put squarely on the
league of nations the responsibility
of lifting China out of the clutches
of all the foreign powers who have
despoiled her territory and grabbed
her riches. 1t is not forgotten that
President Wilson when he received the
Senate foreign relations committee at
the White House took the position
that foreign powers would not now be
occupying Chinese territory If there
had been league of nations in the
past. Mr.. Wilson himself admits. he
doesn't like the shantung award. but
looks to Japan to right 1t and the
=
vision If Japan should not voluntarily
do SO.
To date scores of changes have been
made in the text of the treaty by the
Senate foreign relations committee.
But when the treaty is reported to
the Senate next week 1t will be read
article by article an0 it will become
necessary for the senators to watch
carefully their votes, for as they vote
they will not merely find it necessary
to justify their disapproval of clauses
on the treaty. but to justify the send
Ing back of the treaty to international
conference. Many senators are puz-
zled. They would like to sec certain
reservations made which do not affect
the text itself, but make clear the
limit of Americas obligations par
ticularly as to the use of force in the
future.
Confident of Beating Amendments.
as each article is voted upon there
will be enough republicans joining
with the forty five democrats to beat
every amendment of text that is Of
fered He doesn't seem to De as es sure
ratifying resolution that contains no
reservations at all. There's where the
fight will be close. Some of the reser-
vatlons proposed would not in the end
be unacceptable to the President. for
they are apparently regarded. by him
as clarifying language already in the
treaty and which merely for the sake
of caution would be explicitly stated
in the ratifying resolution.
But as the eight or nine republicans
who have stood for amendments of
the text of the treaty are defeated by
the series of votes which it is admit
ted now. will be against them. the
moral, effect of these reverses may
weaken the demand for reservations
that are called reservations" but are
in effect amendments Of text. 1t
would be a mistake to give the im-
preston that the republican party as
whole is opposed to any league of
nations or to an early ratification of
the peace treaty. Many wise heads
on the republican side Of the Senate
are questioning the wisdom of the
tactics pursued by their eight col
leagues who are trying to commit the
party to the defeat OF both the league
of nations and peace treaty.
A majority Of republicans. II con-
IContinued on Second Page.)