Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1919-09-07
TWO GREAT ALLIANCES
IN EUROPE PREDICTED
Signs of Return of Balance of Power
Unmistakable, Mr.. Simonds Says. 2
Explaining Racial Antaeonisms. l..
BY FRANK II. SIMONDS.

1.-TWO weeks ago l eHdeavored 10
describe the contemporary sit
uation in Europe. pointing out
that the league of nations idea
had encountered almost impossible OBJ
stacles in the spirit of nationality and in
the claims of race.
In the present article l am going to
try to discuss that European substitute
for the league of nations which for
nearly three centuries has served. not
to prevent war. but to prevent any one
nation from achieving the domination
of Europe and the world. This is the
principle of the balance of power. and.
unless every sign fails. Europe is now
Enthusiastically turning toward this sys-
tenn.
AS l have often pointed out in my
articles, at the Paris conference the
United States was the only country
which greatly believed or was deeply
interested in the league Of nations pro-
posal Next to the United States, Great
Britain was most interested. but British
interest. so far as it was spontaneous
and convinced, was restricted to an ex-
traordinarily small circle of so-called
liberals. British support at Paris for
the league of nations idea had nothing
in the world to do with the league OF
nations. 1t was merely detail in
policy. The British undertook to sup
port the United States wherever and
whenever such support did not CONNECT
with Britain's vital interests.
stroyed, German colonies in British
hands, and Germany as commercial
rival temporarily paralyzed. the ma
teria1 detectives of the British IN the
war which the Germans had forced
upon them were achieved. The Brit
ish had not to fear any immediate
resumption of German attack. They
could afford to experiment. and II the
result of the experiment was not the
creation of a league of nations, but
merely an association between the
United States and Great Britain, all
safeguarded.
What 1 mean to say is. British
craftsmanship was not enamored
with the league of nations idea, but
the British leaders saw plainly the
value of the United States to the
British in the future and the perma-
nent gain if enduring friendship re-
suited. Therefore the British said:
since the league of nations can do
US no harm itself, and it may be the
beginning of an Anglo-American al
lance, let us support it. provided only
the question of the freedom of the
seas is not involved or the disposition
of the German colonies questioned"
The essential thing to recall is that
the United States could advocate the
league of nations idea because it was
totally removed from continental
perils. The British could afford to
risk the experiment, because they had
the channel between them and the
mainland and the challenge of Ger
France and the League.
But the situation with respect to
France was different. AS a land
power, Germany had not been broken
with anything like the completeness
with which she had been wrecked as
a sea power. 1t is conceivable, it is
on the whole likely, that within a
quarter of a century-which is moth
ing in the life of nations-Germany
will reappear as a great military
seven years that separated Jena from
Leipzig, remade her military strength.
Since Germany has $4,000, 900 of peo-
pie and France 100000. and since
Germany is certain to increase her
population at a far more rapid rate
than France. French inferiority in the
face of Germany must be accepted.
The French. therefore, could not af-
ford to run any risk. They might con-
sent to see the league Of nations idea
tried, but while it was still an expert
ment they would have to seek some other
proves as Intellectual as The Hague tri-
bunal France might find herself twenty
five years hence helpless in the presence
of Germany.
AS consequence. France has sought
two forms of insurance. She accepted
the league of nations experiment only
when it was underwritten by an Anglo
American military guarantee. This in
itself would have been sufficient had it
not been for the fact that almost at the
outset it was discovered that American
opposition to this alliance was strong,
and that there was a very great pos
sibility, even if such an alliance were
formulated. that the circumstances of
the American political situation might
be such that the pact would be repudi-
ated or ignored. In other words, what
has happened in the last three months
in Washington has clearly demon
strated to the French that in the
face of a possible German attack in
the future they might have to expect
long delays before America finally de-
cided to send troops to Europe. There
remains, of course. the British sup
port, but it was patent that in the
situation bound to develop in Europe
Anglo-French military resources
would be as insufficient to defeat
Germany as they proved, even with
the temporary assistance of Russia
and of Italy, in the recent war.
Policy of Balance of Power.
last few weeks the development of a
French policy to restore the balance
of power in Europe by building up an
association of continental states which
shall be sufficient to make head
against a new German group of
powers. For do not believe that
any one in Europe seriously believe
that Germany will permanently ac-
cept the condition in which the last
war has left her.
French diplomacy, the architects of
a new continental alliance, have
found themselves in the presence of
certain facts. There were among the
new states created by the war three
which, in the nature of things, would
adhere to the central German group.
These three were Poland. Czecho-
slovakia and Jugoslavia. In addition,
not to need to be recapitulated, Bel
GUM would fall in the same class.
Such a group, then. would represent
the following population: Poland.
25,O00.O00; Czechoslovakia. 11.000.-
600; Jugoslavia, 100000, and Bel
GUM, 1000. 000-in all, 55.000.00.
AS to the reasons for assigning
these states to the French. or rather
anti-German group, they are plain.
AS result of the treaty of Yer
sailles, Poland acquires more than
10000 square miles of German ter
ritory and over 100000 of people
formerly subjects Of the kaiser. The
new boundaries not only separate
East Prussia from the balance of
GermanY hut bring the German from