The Bridgeport times and evening farmer., 1919-08-01
Assurance of Continued
 Prosperity Rests With
 Our Foreign Commerce
OF OUR INDUSTRIAL ISOLATION COMPLETELY BEHIND US-HAVE
 SURPLUSSES TO SELL.

For the first time in our history as a nation the assurance of our con tinued prosperity rests with the fu- ture of our foreign trade, it is de- olared by the National Bank of Com merce in New York in the monthly discussion of business conditions pre- sented in It's magazine, Commerce Monthly for August. The bank con tinues:
 The period of our industrial .iso- lation is as completely bc ind us as is the period of our political isola- ton. Our industries were expanded and speeded up during four years of war in order to suppIy not only our own markets but also to meet a ehare Of he worlds demands. It is inevitable that the high level of war exports will not be maintained. A decline from that level is desirable, but q return to the pre-war basis ! would result in serious industrial disturbance. We have surpluses to sell. Europe needs our commodities, and q way must be found to finance those purchases on credit. Such credit, whatever the financial ma chinery set in motion, must eventual ly be based on the savings of the American people. The drastic con- sumner inevitably will ask why he should curtail his consumption in or der to assist the consumers of other nations to buy on credit in this coun- try and to bid against himself by means of the very credits he has helped to extend. The answer is that an enormous destruction of the worlds actual and potential capital has taken place during the last four years. Although that destruction took place in Europe. economically considered the world is now unit, and we are vitarlly interested in the replacement of that capital. If the American consumer believes he may with impunity continue in unrestrict- ed consumption and escape feeling the effects of the shortage in the worlds capital, he is in grievous error.
 Expansion of domestic consump- ton after the restriction of war was certain and desirable. The stimulus provided our industry by this in creased consumption tided us over the first difficult months and greatly aided the transition to q peace basis. Intelligent thrift should be our na- tional watchword through the recon structfon period ahead of us.
 Tt is asking an impossibility of na- tional altruism to expect the Ameri- can citizen to save for the sole pur- pose of rehabihtating Europe for Europe's sake. To regard such saw ings as altr7listic, however, is not : correct To save for intelligent and conservative investment of American capital abroad is ultimately to save for our individual and national vel fare. A wise policy of national thrift for foreign investment will so dis tribute the shock from the capital destruction of the war that our bus mess need not lose the impetus which 1t has gained since the armis- | ttce."
 | With the beginning Of the second half of the year, Commerce Monthly says, the time of business uncertain Il ty has passed. and a period of pros perity Is definitely under way, as evil denced by an improvement in basic industrial conditions of a character to justify confidence in it's perman- | ency. The return of foreign born workers to their native lands Is suming huge proportions, the bank | says, and in contrast with fears of widespread unemployment of four months ago, a labor shortage now seems a possibility of the near future
 Under the caption When VIII
 
 Monthly, issued by the National Bank of Commerce in New York, an- | alyzes the prospective receipts and expenditures of the Federal Gov ernment and reaches the conclusion that expenditures for 1919-1920 may be conservatively estimated at seven or seven and half billion dollars and total revenues, including receipts on Victory Note subscriptions, at about seven billions. Any remaining deficit can easily be met by the sale of treasury certificates. The bank continues:
 '''It is q commonplace of finance that in time of peace revenue must equal expenses. This condition may not be fully met before the fiscal year 192O-21. It is therefore apparent that the hope of a reduction of taxa ton which was entertained and ex- pressed some months ago by many members of the new Congress cannot speedily be realized, and according ly tax repeal measures heretofore introduced have been shelved, at least temporarily. This does not mean that simplihcation and im- provement of the existing revenue law is not possible, but only that the total amount of taxes cannot yet be safely reduced.
 For the fiscal year endfng June 90, ls2l, an annual revenue of perhaps $4. .O00. 100000 will be required instead ct the round billion which was the cus- tomary annual pre-war revenue. This conclusion follows from consid- eration of the increased level of prices and wages, of the inevitable ' expansion of governmental activity and of the heavy sinking fund and interest charges on our debt After deducting some nine billions ad- vanced to the Allied Governments, there will remain a. net debt of about SIS. .0O0 000. 900. which will entail an an- nua1 charge of at least s7oO. GOO GOO
 ''Some reduction of taxes, but no very large reduction. may reason- , ably be expected in another year. It Is to be hoped that the cuts will be made in the most burdensome taxes. but American business must look forward to continuance of v~--- heavy taxation for years to me. lEven so. our condition iB lively