New-York tribune., 1919-10-21
Observation-Disclosures
BY Frank II. Si1nonds

also, and French customs frontiers will
begin at the Luxsmburg frontier, so far
IS Germany is concerned.
Thus. if war comes again, the Ger
mans, restricted in measure at least
by the provisions of the Treaty Of Yer
sailles, forbidding them to erect fortih-
cations or concentrate troops west OF
the Rhine, cannot repeat. their exploit
OF 1914 and gain control Of Luxemburg
even before declaration of war. On
the contrary, they must expect to find
the French in control long before their
vance beyond the Rhine. 1t probably
means that the first engagements. at
the very least, will take place in Ger
man territory.
Belgian Detenses
More than this, with Luxembourg no
longer in German control and with the
districts of Malmedy and Eupcn in
their own possession as a result Of the
Treaty Of Versailles, the Belgians will
be able to defend themselves against
any German attack not about Lege,
but at their own frontier and along the
| admirably defensible positions of the
Ardennes. They will also have control
of the ends of the strategic railways
ny, lc hull Iorz
the last war for exactly the invasion of
Belgium which actually followed the
declaration of war.
A Lessened Danger
Finally, and this is the greatest of all
, advantages, the French and Belgian
armies would be able, given these ad-
vantages, to hold out on the line of the
Ardennes, the Sarre and the Rhine un-
til British armies, and even American,
If we accept the treaty guaranteeing
France against German attack, could
arrive in Europe-that is, on the Cont
enent Thus the danger of terrible in.
vasion which has hung over France visi-
bly, and over Belgium only less patiently
for nearly half century is materially
reduced
II Germany ventures upon q new at
tack upon France she will in all human
probability eliminate Belgium from her
calculations, because the various changes
In frontier, particularly the changes as
to Luxemburg, abolish all chance of
swift penetration to the plains Of north
ern France. But if she is thus COM
pelled to abandon the Belgian routes
she will be restricted to the very mar
row front between the Ardennes and
the Rhine, covered by the Sarre, the
Moselle and the Meuse rivers. by the
fortresses of Metz, Verdun and Toul-
IN word, to that front on which she
made no substantial gain whatever in
the last war except where her seizure
of Luxembourg enabled her to turn the
whole French system Of defenses be-
tween Belgium and Switzerland.
4 Ne,c Verdun
Given the circumstances OF contem-
porary warfare, it is inconceivable that
such a prospect could tempt the German
peoples and the German military COM
mand, since the French, with inferior
numbers, to be sure, would still possess
sufficient divisions to defend so narrow
front indefinitely, while the natural
obstacles would make the German task
, costly beyond words-a new Verdun,
infinitely expanded, and Verdun will
long remain name of evil omen in
Germany.
Small, therefore, as the Luxembourg
plebiscite may seem at the moment when
Fiume is to the fore and American
political contests fill the press of this
country, it has a farreachng impor-
tance, since it bars one more road to
France and removes very considerable
number of the chances of success from
any new German attack upon the French
Republic, wl,ile at the same time it
gives Belgium promise of safety not
possessed in 1914. In fact, that situs-
ton now returns to the condition Of
the period Of Louis XIV, when Luxem
burg was occupied by French garrison.
That the people Of Luxembourg should
have made the decision for France is
hardly surprising. Unquestionably they
would have preferred safe exclusion
fror, Franco German affairs. but the
events of 1914 showed that this was i'm
possible, and as between France and
Germany there never has been any
doubt as to the syppathies and prefer
ences of the people of this tiny state.
Copyright 1919. By McClure's Newspaner
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