The Washington times., 1919-09-16
WORLDLOOKSTOU.S.
/. FOR WINTER'SC COAL
Greatest Shortage in History Is
Forecast by American
Officials.
by William r. Helm. ir.

The entire world, with the eNceD-
ton OF the United States. will want
coal this winter az never before. The
greatest shortage in history is fore
cast by American officials. The fore
going figures. applying TO foreign
countries. submitted by the Shipping
/ Boards export department manager.
II. y. Saint, TO the FrclinEhuyscn COM
/ mittec, are now appearing m the
record in revised form. reflect the eN-
tent Of the universal need.
The shortage cannot be met. There
is but one country that could supply
/ the coal required. and that country
is the United States. But 10 make up
the worldwide deficiency this country
would have to ship abroad during the
next few months more than four
times the volume of coal it has ever
shipped before during the course of
a year. Aside from the problem OF
production problem that is today
concerning operators endeavOring 10
supply American needs-there is not
enough shipping tonnage afioat or
available to carry the great conslgn-
ment.
While il is difficult TO forecast the
chief shortage centers. il now appears
certain from the Analysis made by Mr.
Saint. that the inhabitants of Franco,
Belgium. Holland. Italy, Denmark.
4 Norway. Sweden. Spain and Switzer-
/ land will be among~the most heavily
afflicted. and that Germany and Aus
Etria-HUngary Gncluding Czecho-Slo-
vskia aad Jugo-SIovakia) will suffer
no less.
TabuIatiOn OF Needs
! In addition to the needs of the coun-
| tries designated in the foregoing tab
ulation. Mr.. Saint has analyZed the
/ requirements OF other countries as
| follows: Portugal. 1,223, 600 tons;
| Gibraltar. 361 900 tons; Spain. 1926
/ coo tons; Denmark, 3.4o4,OOO tons;
Norway. 2.391. 600 tons; Sweden,
0O0 tons. Italy, 12,O1T,OOO tons;
Malta. 1.1S6.OOO tons; Hun
gary including Czecho-Slovakia and
JUEo-Slovakia, 1879, 900 tons: Greece,
10000 tons: BUlgs ria, $1,000 tons;
, Rumania 301 900 tons and Russia.
S.SO4. 600 tons. Africa. in addition, will
\ require 1S,33O.OO0 tons over and above
what she will produce and Asiatic
countries will require $4,000 tons.
The total coal requirements Of the
world next winter have been placed
by this authority at 1T0. 0.511 600 tons,
of which 9T.T23.OOO tons can be sup
piled by countries other than the
United States.
This would leave SI.TSS.O 900 tons to
be furnished b. this country. Mt.
Saint estimates that there viii be
furnished 1925, 900 tons, leaving a
shortage in the worlds coal bin OF
90, ,463. 900 tons. a tonnage sufficient
TO supply the New England States for
nearly three years.
a Titanic Shipping Problem.
Translated into other terms. il
would require .249 900 cars Of fifty
tons capacity each, to meet the short
age. or $4,000 trains of fifty cars each.
Twelve thousand five hundred yes
sells OF 1900 tons capacity each would
be necessary to carry She cargo across
the ocean in one trip. More than
60.0OO men would have to dig coal at
top speed for year to produce the
tonnage
No attempt will be made to.-sup-
ply the deficiency in full. As much
coal as can be transported with eX-
listing facilities. however. without
stinting American consumers, will be
carried abroad. Exclusive of the
tonnage sent TO Canada (Which de-
pends wholly on the United States
for her needs above her own produc-
tom il is estimated by Mr.. Saint
that about 100000 tons will be
shipped abroad-little more than 10
per cent Of requirements.
Need More Vessels.
The amount which this country
can send abroad depends wholly on
shipping facilities. Mr.. Saint testi-
lied before the Frelinghuysen com
mittee that he believes 100000 tons
a month could be shipped abroad
without dopriving American c'onsum-
eTs. under existing conditions, but
that there are not sufficient vessels
% carry the tonnage without neglect
ing other needed commodities.
Europe and South America must
have American coal ii they can get il.
80 great is their necessity that even
The enormous ocean freight rates do
tot deter them. On high grade Amer
Icau Goa! costing So TO 81 per ton a.
the mines. Europe is paying trans
ocean freight rates Of from S22.5O TO
S&1.00 per ton. from seven TO ten times
the Goals initial cost. The ocean
rates TO South America range from
SIC per ton TO destinations in Brazil.
Uruguay and the Argentine. to $3.50
per ton on coal TO Punta Arenas.
Chile, on the west coast In other
words. Eurore and South America
are willing to pay freight rates or
from seven to ten times the original J
cost Of the coal, in order 10 get il |
delivered on their wharves.