Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1919-04-25
Victory Loan Bonds Prime
Investment, Declares Expert

from lower prices, resulting from stop
page of war orders and an enormous
leftover supply. This depression. how
ever, win be but temporary. For pet
roleum products there is an enormous
consumption in prospect, with cores
pOnding prosperity.
Our foreign trade is gradually return
ing to normal, and while our commerce
with war devastated regions will re-
quire time for restoration there IS no
reason why a larger traffic should not
quickly ensue with South America and
the Orient, where new opportunities
await the adventurous trader. Great
Britain is already making tremendous
efforts to re-estabish her foreign trade.
The United States, thinksetaoi.ughoo
The United States, thanks to the war
has suddenly become great maritime
power. and will soon closely approx
mate Britain's vast tonnage. There is
still great scarcity of ships, and It
will be one if not two years before
the void is filled. Meanwhile, American
shipowners are making handsome pro-
fits. which explains the increasing ae-
tivity and rising prices of marine is
sues on the Stock Exchange.
The million share mark is now fire.
ouently passed in the daily transactions,
and prces have risen to point war
ranting occasional profit-taking and re-
actions. Industrials led the rise, the
advances being confined to special is
sues for reasons just stated. Steels were
often foremost because of the certainty
that they viii surely benefit by any
trade revival. though price uncertain
/ ties and deferred orders induced con
siderable realizing. Railroad shares
were neglected mainly because Of the
absence of stimulus. In spite of unfav-
orable conditions values are well main
tanned, owing to the belief that con
gress will live up to the government
promise of returning the roads to their
owners in as good condition as when
taken from them for war purposes.
Many railroad and industrial shares
are selling at lower prices than at the
close of 1915, which is in conspicuous
contrast with every other division Of
/ business or industry.
We have had initiation in commodi-
ties wages and credits but practically
none in securities Even in days of huge
war profits there was no proportionate
rise in security values. Initiation IN
credit is shown in the fact that federal
reserve bank loans are more than 81,
| O0OO0,000 above the pre-war level.
Now that the peace treaty is near ae.
tual signing, that element Of doubt will
be removed. Perhaps its effect has
been approximately discounted, both
here and abroad, but despite dull spots
] there are enough encouraging faetoH
at home to warrant an active stock
market with the trend toward higher
prices accompanied by frequent reae'
j tions.
As to the business situation at large
there are the best of reasons for optim'
ism. When peace is signed many re-
strietions will be removed, and there
will be big export demand for cop
Der, oil cotton, steel products, etc. The
steel industry will feel this impetus
through orders for steel rails, ears anc
locomotives which have had rougf
usage for the last two years. The eroI
outlook is good, and the agricultural
districts will enjoy a prosperity thai
must be reflected upon manufacturers
merchants and railroads. Building II
already reviving on marked scale
Taxes will be lower next year. Many
people have economical in all direc
tions to subscribe to loans and pay
taxes. Such individuals must and vii
replenish and repair. For year or tive
at least our export trade must be ae
tive for the reason that other countries
will not be able to meet demands. The
only important offsets to these con
ditions are labor disturbances conse
quent upon scarcity; dull spots result
= ing from loss Of war orders, and tn.
tremendous initiation of credit whicl
may be curbed by bankers who realiz
this danger, however remote it may be
HENRY CLEWS.