New Britain herald., 1919-07-21
Henry Clews Weekly Letter,
Especial to the Herald)

DuSnel, part Of which comes out Ol the taxpayers pocket and is, there fore, shifting rather than produc- tion of wealth. The outlook for other crops is fair as to yield, the chief dis appointment being cotton, which will be much below the normal, or about 11,000,00O bales High prices, how ever, will more than offset diminished output, so the prospects of unusual agricultural prosperity are un- dimmed. The wheat crop is roughly valued at over $2,500, ,000 900, and the entire harvest at over $2O,OO0, 900, ,OOO, which would go far toward meeting our national outlay for the war. h. terior merchants are stocking up with
 more confidence, though high prices and great credit expansion occasion ally induce a desirable mixture of
 conservatism. In the industrial field
 steel seems to occupy leadership. En-
 larged demands for export, for rail-
 roads, for oil, shipping, building and other industries are inevitable, and a
 number of plants are running 70 per
 cent of capacity and over, which is
 more than at any time since the loss
 of war contracts. Buildings is be-
 coming more and more active owing
 to urgent demand for housing and
 office room; and the call for new in dustrial plant is only less urgent than
 might be expected because a large
 part of war construction on these
 lines is being taken up by peace in dustrieS Conditions in railroad traf- fic are improving, the volume in the
 grain districts having already visibly
 increased. In merchandising lines, summer quiet temporarily prevails,
 but preparations are in order for an active fall trade. Labor is we'll em-
 ployed, despite the large number of
 men back from the war. The unem-
 ployed are few, and advices from
 many directions report a scarcity of
 help which is undoubtedly true. A considerable number of alien labor CTS are returning to their native lands and more are expected to fol- low, but not so many as extreme es- inmates indicate. The outward move ment movement is swollen by those held back during the war. The cer- tainty of securing better work and wages here than in Europe will, however, be deterrent upon any excessive effluX. The high cost of food, clothing and shelter is an i'm portant factor in the outbreaks of un- rest which appear here and there in the form of strikes. Such conditions are the inevitable result of five de- structive years such as the world never saw before or ever imagined possible. The only effectual cure for such a famine is more economy and more product. Only on such lines can the world wide vacuum be filled. Unfortunately the world is turning it's back for the time being upon sane thinking and sound action It is still sorely confused by the multiplicity of half baked ideas; is prone to extrav- agance and unwilling to relieve the situation by larger product or more
 work. Imitation does not seem 10 have run it's course by any means, and high prices, coupled with imper- atiVe reconstruction insure prosper ity for many months if not several
 years ahead. As long as the move
 ment is so guided as to prevent se- rious maladjustme ent and to preserve
 a, fairly normal balance in the vari-
 ous divisions of industry there is
 little immediate danger. Conserva-
 tive leadership will prolong the pres
 ent wave of prosperity, while reckless
 expansion would bring it to a quick
 end.
 Gerniany's Future.
 Germany's Presumption of trade
 may be rather slow affair. In the first place German purchases from
 the United States will be restricted at first to sheer necessities because of
 inability to pay. in goods or gold.
 Our purchases from Germany will for
 some time be small because the hos
 pr-S
 makes it hazardous and unprofitable
 to carry a stock of German wares
 This applies to other countries even
 more than the United States. One of the most serious questions will be that of credit, though it is stated that a loan of 25 to 30 millions could be arranged at once. Germany however. is facing difficult times, calling for much hard work and sacrifice.
 There is talk already of passing the interest on her public debt which if
 really done would amount to repu-
 diation or confiscation and serious
 em barrassment of many leading f1nan-
 cial institutions. There is, however, one compensation, even for Germany and that is relief from the costly burden
 of militarism which finally wrecked the empire That alone will ma terldly dlo the recovery or Germany when her people are ready to adapt themselves to the new conditions and ideals which dominate the world. Weakness in Foreign Exchange. Foreign exchange continues un- settled and weak. Sterling again touched the lowest on record and francs and other foreign bills did likewise; the decline, of, course, being due to the abnormal condition of our foreign trade. The tremendous pres