New-York tribune., 1919-06-29
Economic Future of Euro
pean Nations Hinges on
the People Returning to
Work, Bankers Believe
Credit Chief Need
As Trade Stimulus
Germany Urgently Wants
Cotton and Copper, but
Must Offer Security

changes peace will bring to Europe is
expressed by bankers and business
men.
The whole future of Europe in
finance and commerce, depends on
whether the people will go back to
work" said Alvin Krech, president of
the Equitable Trust Company. This
seems to be the opinion of most fnan-
ciers who have observed conditions
abroad.
The crucial question. on which all
else hangs is. Can the nations produce
Krech. The need is TO minimize con-
sumption and to maximize production.
The nations that succeed in doing so
will emerge solvent and those that fail
will collapse. The war is now over and
work on national scale is the de-
.erminng factor of the future. The
drift seems to be toward shortening
working days and higher pay
Economic Changes Due
The proclamation of peace will bring
about the following changes in the eco
nomc situation:
|. The blockade on the enemy
countries will be lifted, and goods
will be permitted to flow from coun-
try to country.
?. The way will be cleared for the
formulation of plan by interna-
tonal financiers for the extension of
longtime credits to Europe. which
Will enable the continent to make
effective it's tremendous demand for
machinery, raw materials, manufact-
ured goods, and foodstutfs.
3. Supply and demand which in
most belligerent countries were in
termed for the war, will be released
to control world markets to greater
extent than they have for the last
five years. Trade may be expected
gradually to flow back into more
normal channels. Restrictions in
various countries, in contradistinc-
tion to the blockade of enemy coun-
tries, will in many instances be
dropped.
4. The energy of statesmen and of
commercial and financial leaders will
be freed from the business of set
tling the war to the task of rehabili-
tating industry and getting the
wheels OF industry to whirr again.
Empires Shelves Bare
The shelves of Europe are bare, and
the continent is in need of supplies Of
almost every kind Business men GEN
orally expect the formal ending of the
war to mark a favorable turn in do
mestic industry, because Of the ex-
pected stimulus of foreign needs. The
only factor which will retard foreign
buying will be the inability of the
European nations to supply currency
acceptable TO this country The domi-
nant need, IT is universally recognized
IS the extension OF credits to Europe
on large scale.
Bankers in this country for the last
few weeks have been conferring fire.
quently on the subject, and are grad
ually resolving their views into con-
crete propositions. The ultimate solu
tion, 1t is thought in financial quartz RS,
VIII be based on the plan brought to
,his country recently by Henry p.
DAWSON, of J. P. Morgan & Co.
This programme provided for the Gre
alton Of an organization in this coun-
Iry which all the banks and banking
houses and the great and small indus
tries Will be invited to join. To this
proposed instrument will be DELEGATED 4
me task of coordinating Americas re-
~ources for extending credit to Eu-
rope.
committee of the city's most now
u! oaHherS, heaQed by j. Pierpont
Morgan, has already been appointed to
represent New York in the national un-
aertaking, and similar committees are
N the process Of formation in Chicago
Boston and other cities. Initial steps
toward the organization of the indus
srses on broad lines have already been
taken.
Await Formal Signing
Mr.. DAWSON insisted that no+hino
tangible could be done until the peace
treaty was signed. He said Yesterday
mat no important Developments were
ikely within the next fortnight. The
bankers are working in close touch
with the Federal Reserve Board. and,
although the proposed credit reservoir
IS expected 70 take the form Of a pri
.aee corporation, the financial leaders
ceclare their desire TO do nothing with
out the moral support of the govern
ment.
@ust as the American interests are
organizing 70 meet the situation. so,
according to Mr.. Dawson, a simj]ar
movement is taking place abroad.
winch It is expected, will eventually
result in the establishment of a central
BODY TO coordinate Europe's needs.
"clch the bankers feel must be trcate d
- whole. 1t in known that Mr..
PAob \oAiS LUZ HndNCldl aid
Tor Germany and the rest of the Cen
rfai Powers, as we'll as the Allies.
holshevik Russia. IL is understood.
"iii be ignored temporarily. Europe.
l. is pointed out, needs credit because
!. mas neither goods nor gold TO send
70 the United States in payment of
goods shipped abroad
Three Billion Credit Needed
Bankers decline to estimate how
mach Europe will need in the way Of
efedis this year. but the Federal Re-
~s.,Ve Board has made prediction.
lhe balance Of trade of the United
crates In the fiscal year ending on
snns 30, IL says, is likely to be So 'oOo,-
v"o'ooo, whieh Is the average that it
mas been for the last three years. The
interest on European securities which
sne government Of the United States
enc M American investors acquired during
ne war exceeds $500, ,O0O. 900 annually.
european obligations which mature In
sns United States this ysar will reach
sss"een $500. .0o0. 900 and $3.50, 600 900.
nSsrsgating these itens. the Reserve
noaio forecasts that in 1919 means
,aust pc found for toe financing OF a,
assst 70 400 900, ,o0o Of new obligations
eaa eaa sor the renewal Of at laasf $500
1000 Of old oney.
hss - "n custom, thes stock market
ns yrs ossn dlsecunting peace since Fob
~ Ihsrsfore, the actual signing
ok the treaty is accepted without ers
sr..,a..n On the board. The future OF