New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1919-01-03
City Bank Points
To Limits of Bill
Germany Can Pay
People May LAY Down" on
the Job if lndemnities
Imposed Are Too Heavy,
Its Circular States

Trainers of tie indemnity programme
that is expected TO be adopted by the
Allies as the basis on which Germany
is 10 be made to pay for the financial
and economic losses of the war must
keep plainly IN mind the fact chat un-
less there is a sufficient reward to the
German people to induce them to labor
and save and invest there is danger OF
their dying down on the job accor-
ding to the January economic review
of the National City Bank. which dc
votes much space to this phase Of the
international settlement problem. The
opinion is expressed that long-con-
continued indemnity payments. after
all the parties to the original conflict
had passed away. would not be CON
ducive to good feeling, but afford a
constant motive for disturbing the
status quo.
May Desert the Ship
IF the Allies put conditions upon
Germany which compel her to fall be-
mind other countries in industrial eff
ticiency," the banks circular states
cor to stand still while others advance
ard which deaden the ambitions Of
the resources of the country. No way
has ever been found to get people TO
work effectively except by paying them
by offering Inducements which ap-
peal to them. There is something
Familiarity known as lying down on the
job. Steps have been taken TO pre-
Won't some species Of property from
being transferred from Germany but
u IS scarcely practicable to prevent
people from leaving Germany to make
their homes elsewhere, and they are
likely to go if the prospects for their
own future and that OF their children
The leaders. the mon who carry large
earning capacity under their hats
would 60. and what would the remain
der do with such a situation ?"
he only way Germany can pay an
indemnity is in goods, the bank points
out, and for large indemnity the pay
ments would have to run over a long
period of years. Her people would
have to produce and export and turn
the foreign credits thus credited over
to apply on the obligations Mr.
Lloyd George is prompt to say that
England would not want German goods
in any such quantities. the circular
continues. land this raises the ques-
zion, if England. whose public policy is
free trade and who would be the chief
creditor would not want them. what
might be expected of the countries
which have always adhered to the pol
ICY of protecting their industries ?
What countries would be willing to re
ceive them for the sake of helping Eng
land collect her share? The fact is
that the expectation of goods by Ger
many on any such scale, if she could
.ol- j i
q the world"
Would Wipe Out Income
II the indemnity were fixed at $40 600
100000 instead Of S120 900 900 900, men
toned by Lloyd George in recent cleo
ton speech, the bank estimates that
with an interest rate of per cent the
the entire net income of Germany as
estimated before the war, leaving moth
ing for Improvement and growth
And it Is pointed out that in these
times of rapid changes in industry the
country which does not have ready cap
ltal with which to improve its equip
ment and finance its trade cannot ex-
pect to keep the pace. The bank adds:
"lf the annual payment were cut down
TO ehalf of the country's net income,
whatever that may be, what would
sun be the effect upon Individual in
itative and enterprise? This subject
OF the effect of heavy taxation upon
enterprise and development has been
very much under discussion in the
United States and Great Britain in the
last two years. 1t has been generally
agreed among business men that such
taxation has a doubly repressive in
fuence; first, in that there is less
capital available for new undertakings
and, second, that the risks of new un-
dertakings are too great for the re
1-aining compensation