Evening star., 1919-12-27
FINANCIAL EVENTS
OF YEAR REVIEWED
Prosperity of American Busi'
ness a Feature Which Dis
) appointed the PesSimiStS.

fron Financial Dept. of n. Y. Evening Post.
NEW YORK. December 27.-There
las been plenty of discussion about
lhe events and tendencies of the past
5lnanc1aI year and what they mean
mas certainly been year in which
vents haev moved differently-some
INES Tor better sometimes for worse
-than had been expected. In the
prosperity of American business for
instance, after the first two mont hs
cf hesitation; in the absence of the
hred1cted collapse of prices for COM
lAoditles. and in the great increase of
cur export trade when decrease had
been confidently prophesied. the year
mas been disappointment TO the pes
Sinnists
Results OF World Wide Scarcity.
1t Is perfectly easy now to see why
Worldwide scarcity should have
brought such demands from foreign
markets for our products. as much
more than to offset the Cancelled mu-
nitions orders. 1t is not at all diff
cuit to explain today why the re-
pulrements of the prosperous Ameri-
can community. pent-up during the
iong period when we were in the war
supply business. should have reached
i volume which was limited only by
'apaclty for production or by pro-
libitive prices. Any street corner
oracie can show you why the great
ctdvanee which occurred in the indus
'rlai shares on the stock exchange
was certainty.
Chary ON Predictions.
sometimes such an experience leaves
such a year, asserting that these eco
itomlc movements are sure to continue
n IS20-in other words, that we have
merely discovered the real nature of
ne aftermath Of war. There is a lit
tie of this kind of prediction at pres
cnt-chiefiy in regard to the stock ex-
change movement of next year. But as
concerns the questions of foreign
Irade, nome industrial activity, and
even prices In commercial markets. a
curious but quite unn1istakable feel
lns or uncertainty prevails. No one is
express1ng positive belief in a turn
Tor the worse, but there is pretty gem
Srai agreement that change of some
question is asked whether our sur
plus OF exports can continue on its
recent scale, and whether the rise in
prices and the extravagant personal
BILE for II will be of as much influence
IN 1920 as in 1919, the answer usually
is that the thing is practically ircon-
ceivable.f
+ forecasts That Failed.
Predictions Of a year ago which have
Jailed OF fulfillment because actual
results We're worse than had been
looked looked Tor concern mostly the eco
nomlc recuperation of Europe, the
handling of the currencies of the
recent belligerents, and the action of
the foreign exchanges. Last year end
ed With strongly prevalent idea
that Europe would begin very quick
1y to show in the way of Industrial
achievement what the termination of
the war meant. 1t was thought that
European currency imitation would
at least be checked: that foreign ex-
change (whose fluctuations had pre-
viously reflected the changing for
tunes Of the war; would at least
move gradually to a position more
favorable to the recent belligerents
Except for a very striking improve
ment of sterling exchange on the
neutral European markets, not one
of these things has happened. That
is one reason for the very widespread
feeling of dependency this week
over Eufope's financial and economic
outlook.
Nothing is more certain, however,
than that we shall have some new
facts, tendencies and achievements to
deal with in that direction during the
coming year. In 1919 it could hardly
be said that, economically speaking
Europe was getting on it's feet. 1t
was preparing to do so, and in view
both of the prodigious strain through
which 1t had passed. and Of the con-
fusion which, even at Washington.
surrounded the whole political status,
nothing else was reasonably to be
expected. But a very great deal has
been accomplished, nevertheless.
Whatever happens to Europe in
1920, we shall not have the story of
1919 told over again.