The independent. [volume] (Elizabeth City, N.C.) 1908-1936, 1919-08-29
FLU IS EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS FALL
But Not Expected To Be Severe
In Communities Highly Af-
fected Last Winter


the Influenza epidemic this fall
and winter, but it, will not be so
severe as that of last winter. Those
communities that suffered most
last year will have fewer cases
this year Those that suffered lit
tie last year will have more cases
this year. There will be much
pneumonia this winter, as fol-
low up of the Influenza of last
winter. Such are the opinions Of
DR.. w. S. Rankin, Supt, of the N.
c.. State Board of Health.
DIR. Rankin sums up his conclu-
sions in the following interesting
"Epidemics begin, spread, and exist
only on non immune, susceptible popu-
lations, and when the susceptible pop
ulation has been affected and made i'm
mune, the epidemic, under natural laws,
must stop.
''Now comes the real question. What
percentage of the influenza susceptible
population did the epidemic of last win
ter affect? On our ability to answer this
question would seem to rest our right
to draw conclusions as to the prevalence
of influenza this fall and winter. The
history of influenza, extending back over
a period of 800 years and recording over
100 epidemics, indicates that an epide-
mic usually involves about 40 per cent of
the POPULATION. Recalling the more re-
cent epidemics (that of last year ex-
cepted), the epidemics of 1890, 81, and
'92. and that of 1900, 'O1, and 'O2, we
had an involvement during the entire
course of these enide:nics of perhaps
4G per cent of the population, possibly
SO per cent. In both of these last two
mentioned epidemics there was during
the several years of their prevalence
Total of less than 100 deaths per 1OO,-
600 poruiation. In the e,r.mic of last
year there was an involvement of at
least 35 per cent of the population, and
there were 400 deaths per 100000 pop
ulation.e- These figures would Indicate
that the epidemic of last fall and winter
consumed the major portion of the sus-
ceptib1e material, and that there remains
but small percentage of susceptible ma
terial to be affected this fall and winter.
It. therefore, appears reasonable to as
sumo that we need not look for more
than one seventh, certainly not more than
Effh ~ &ha n tho disease and
deaths from the disease that we had dur
ing the last year. It is likely that we
will see local and, in some places, rather
intensive epidemics; however, these local
epidemics will in nearly all cases occur
in those places that were, comparatively
speaking, but slightly affected last wIu-
ter, and, fortunately, there are only q
few such places.
"On the other hand, judging from the
teachings of history, we must expect the
| pneumonia death rate for this winter to
be exceptionally high. IN the epidemic
of 1899 to 1892, we find that while that
epidemic stopped in the year 1892, the
pneumonia death rate in '93, the year
following the epidemic, was unusually
high.
"The writer has written the above will
considerable degree of hesitation; il
fact, with distinct embarrassment, feel
ing that in setting forth his rather hope
full attitude toward the possible recur
renee of influenza this fall and winter
he would discourage preparations fo1
meeting emergencies, that he would sub
stitute optimism for preparedness, hop'
for safety. Therefore, It seems well t.
point out the fact that the history of thi
disease teaches consistently, almost with
out any exception, that its epidemics ex
tend over several years, and from /,
study of recent articles on influenza, i
appears to be the belief of the majorit,
of the health officers of this country tha
we shall see recurrence of the epidemi
this winter. Under these circumstances
our attitude should be one of hopeful
ness, our position one of safety"