Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1919-09-23
FARMER WILL WIN
Bull Broker Predicts Cotton VIII
Bring Fifty Cents.
SAYS BETTER TIME is CERTAIN
Bears Won the First Round in the
Great Fight but Turn Is Due and
it viii Have to Come, According to

4
Great Fight but Turn Is Due and
it viii Have to Come, According to
Rountree.
Fifty cent cotton is predicted by Car
Isle Rowntree, New York cotton brok-
er and merchant. While admitting that
during round one" the bears have had
Everything their way, Mr.. Rowntree
looks forward with optimism to the
next round" at the conclusion Of
which. he frankly predicts, the south
will be found triumphant "and the
southern farmer will have collie into
his own"
Mr.. Rowntree made the following
statement:
while the inexorable law Of supply
and demand must ultimately determine
the level of values. the pext important
item in the final analysis. and one that
has not been considered in many Of
the discussions, is the morale Of the
southern farmer.
Psychology Factor
"The majority of them, do not know,
nor do they pretend to know. but little
about the effect of worlds visible sup
ply, mill stocks. exports. consumption,
census reports, crop estimates, ex-
change money rates, foreign labor un-
rest, strike troubles, or any Of the
economic factors that enter into MAX
ing of the market, and cause 1t to vary
as certain incidents occur that are
bullishly or bearishly construed. But
they do know that they had q taste
Of thirty -six-cent cotton last fall, since
when none of the, cotton goods they
use have declined, and that, IL neces-
sary they will eat corn bread and
hold their cotton until they get 1t
again. And here enters again upon the
scene the psychological fact that they
want cotton to advance, and want it so
bad that they only see the elements
that favor an advance until they al
low their desires to so influence their
Judgment that they really believe 1t
is going to advance; and believe this
as they do, they will not sell unless 1t
does advance, which is the winning
card in the game of draw as this will
without doubt cause the very advance
the farmer desires. And since the ma
tority, of farmers have realized more
cash the past few months than ever
before out of their grain and other
crops, they are in a position to hold
until next year If Unnecessary. And they
will have the help this year Of the
southern banker, many Of whom real
ize that they were duped this last
spring by insistent, prcconceived, or
ganized bear propaganda, predicated
upon the assumptionlthat IL the south
ern banker got scared that spotholders
would be forced to sell, which is just
what happened in many instances
around the twenty-cent level. re.
"Six weeks ago practically all the
big operators and interests in New
York city were predicting that cotton
would hit forty cents per pound in
few days more. This caused con-.
siderable long interest to accrue, thus
weakening the technical condition Of
the market and making 1t possible for
heavy selling to start the break and
make the longs run, this additional
selling causing the decline to go still
further. Now, while these same inter-
ests are putting out a lot Of pess.mis-
tic dope and figures showing that cot
ton must decline still further on ac-
count Of present ruinous conditions
they almost without exception believe
in higher prices ultimately. Then
why should there be any further de-
cline at all if cotton is to go back to
new higher levels? The answer is that
there will not be much further de-
cline"
Bears Offer Searecrow.
1.-The biggest bear argument recently
has been the scarecrow Of the large
carryover of spot cotton. A strict
analysis of these figures, estimated at
1924, 900 bales. shows that their signif-
icance has been greatly misintcrpre-
ted by those who figure that the large
carryover will cause still lower prices.
After deducting u. S. mill stock and
European mill and port stocks which
are not available to the short seller. Of
Zoo, 900 bales; linters, 100000 bales;
low grade cotton not tendcrable Oh eo.t-
tract approximately 1000. 900. we have
2,024, 900 bales left. Included in this
balance are the warehouse stocks here,
large per cent of which have already
been bought for foreign account, thus