The Washington herald., 1919-05-02
BUMPER wheat
{: CROP FORECAST
Holland Says Years Yield
= VIII Be Largest In
History.


tanned during May and June as well
as it was maintained in the first ten
months of the present fiscal year then
the estimate of those who predict an
!. international trade balance of S,OoO,-
900. 900 in favor of the United States
for this fiscal year will have been
fully justified. The amount in itself
Is OF such staggering proportions as
TO cause some wonder whether the
United States can maintain such a
favorable position because the nations
that are buying of US may find 1t diff
ficuIt to pay the bills.
All of the reports that have come
to New York since the middle OF
April OF Industrial and agricultural
conditions throughout the country are
highly favorable. 1t Is true that tho
weather was not propitious in the
latter days of April for harvesting
50 great a spring wheat crop as at
one time was looked for. But the
falling of cannot be very great. and
even the governmental authorities
feel justified in predicting that, al
though spring wheat may fall below
expectations or hope. nevertheless the
wheat harvest for the calendar year
will not only be the greatest ever gar
.nered in the United States, but much
harvested in any OF the wheat grow
ing nations.
Other Side of Picture.
= So. too. Industrial activity, notwith-
standing the cancelling Of war con-
tracts. seems to be shaping itself
readily to readjustment conditions. 1t
Is true that in some industries and In
some lines of business conditions are
below normal. This. however. is be-
.iieved to be only temporary 1t is in
part explained by readjustment con-
ditions and by the fact that the gov
ernment had been compelled to cam
eel many orders
But whatever falling off in business
and industry may have been occa-
stoned by readjustment necessities
nevertheless there seems to be no
doubt that the securities market has
begun to discount the approval of
very great prosperity. When trans
actions in securities reach a million
shares a day. not merely once but in
twenty consecutive days, as has been
the case, then it is to be presumed
that the public is coming in and that
professional trading such as charac-
terized the early months of the year
has in great measure ended. II the
Securities market is to be relied upon
then it is forecasting a wonderful era
OF prosperity.
Some have wondered why the first
week Of the Victory Loan did not bring
results which Secretary Glass. the
governors of the Federal Reserve
Banks and other financial leaders
looked for. But whatever the cause.
IL Is not to be attributed to lack OF
funds The savings banks in New
York and. as We hear. those in other
parts of the country. are receiving de-
posits in such amounts as may pos
sibly cause serious embarrassment.
because surplus must be maintained
and increased in proportion to the de-
posits. 1t requires some time to build
up a surplus.
Some have thought that the depar-
ture of so many thousand working
men who have taken with them to
their native lands across the sea an
amount of money which in the aGgre
gate Is very large must have caused
heavy Withdrawals from the savings
banks. But the president of one of
the largest savings banks in New
York said this morning. that although
Withdrawals were somewhat heavy.
they were more than offset by the
steady increase in deposits.
The people have money enough not
only to indulge in luxuries but also
to use some portion of their earnings
in paying for Victory notes. There is
no doubt that before the time fixed
for the floating of the loan has ended
popular subscriptions will be made in
proportionately as great amount as
were those which caused the Fourth
Liberty Loan offering to meet an
amazing success.
The authOriZpd SfatannaDt from
Washington of the aggregate sub
scriptions in the first week of the lib
erty loan campaign does not conta in
a very large volume of subscriptions
which have not been reported to the
government Many Of the clubs or
New York have aided the government
in selling these notes but the returns
from them have not yet been made
public In one day subscriptions for
near $4,000 for the Victory notes were
made by members of one of the old
est Of the New York clubs. So also
other subscriptions have not been re-
ported and it is believed that the ag-
gregate of the unreported subscrip-
dons is very large.
After the Loan Campaign.
When the selling campaign for Vic
sory notes has ended and the $500
nent, either in whole or in parl,
through instaIlment subscriptions.
hen one factor which it was pre-
umed might delay large financing of
kind which industries require in or
rer to meet new conditions will be
put of the way.
II ii Is possible to announce at the
ime Secretary Glass informs the pub
ic that the Victory loan has been sub
'cribed. and possibly oversubscribed,
hat the treaty of peace has been
fgned with strong presumption that
he United States Senate will ratify
then perhaps the most important
actor which has caused delay in the
orning of great prosperity will have
cen removed.
Almost invariably the men who have
''harge Of large financing and who
ave few moments to spare to those
rho seek them in their offices for in
ormation state that with the Victory
7an out of the way and with peace
iefinitely established there stands al
aost nothing in the way of the quick
development of the prosperity which
lany of the ablest forecasters feel
ure VIII be upon us before the end or
he present year.
But in order to realize to the full
xtent the opportunities now opening
viii be necessary for American
nance and American resources to
-rnish aid to the peoples and to the
overnments of other lands. so that
ley may be able to pay for the COM
sodities which they are anxious to
1y In the United States. No one
ems to doubt but that this aid will