Americus times-recorder. [volume] (Americus, Ga.) 1891-current, 1919-09-21
BY CARLISLE RoUNTREE.

BY CARLISLE ROUNIREE.
So many arguments have re-
Gently been advanced relative to
the future trend of cotton values,
certain bear interests trying to get
it down, and the producers, 80 per
cent of whom are bullish, wanting
the price to go higher, that we feel
that an unbiased discussion of the
fundamental facts and elements
that enter into making the market
will not be amiss.
While the inexorable law of sup
ply and demand must ultimately
determine the level of the values,
the next important item in the
final analysis, and one that has not
been considered in many of the
discussions, is the morale" of the
Southern farmer.
The majority of them know, nor
do they pretend to know, bat lit
tie about the effect of worlds Wis
ible supply, mill stocks, exports,
census reports, crop
estimates, exchange money rates,
foreign labor unrest, strike tr0u-
bles, or any of the economic fac
tors that enter into making of the
market, and cause it to vary as GER
tain incidents occur that are bull
ishly or bearishly construed. But
they know that they had taste
of 36-cent cotton last fall, since
when none of the cotton goods
they use have declined, and, that
if necessary they will eat corn
bread and hold their cotton until
they get it again. And here enters
upon the scene the psychological
fact that they want cotton to ad-
vance, and want it to so bad, that
they only see the elements that
favor an advance, until they al
low their desires to so influence
their judgment that they really be-
Iieve it is going to advance, and
believing this as they do, they will
not sell unless it does advance,
which is the winning card in the
game of draw. as this will without
doubt cause the very advance the
farmer desires.
Farmer Able to Hold.
And since the majority of farra-
ers have realized more cash the
past few months than ever before
out of their grain and other crops,
they are in a position to hold un-
til next year if necessary And
they will have the help this year
of the Southern bankers, many of
whom realize that they were du2ed
this last spring by insistent, pre-
conceived, organized bear propa-
ganda, predicated upon the as
sumption that if the Southern
banker got scared, that the spot
holders would be forced to sell,
which is just what happened in
many instances around the 2O-cent
level
Six weeks ago practically all the
big operators and interests in New
York City were predicting that
cotton would hit 40 cents per
pound, in a few days more. This
caused a considerable long interest
to accrue, thus weakening the tech
meal condition of the market and
making possible for heavy selling
to start the break and make the
longs run, this additional selling
causing the decline to go still fur
ther. Now while these same in
terests are putting out a lot of
pessimistic dope and figures snow
ing that cotton must decline still
fulher on account of present ruin
Gus conditions, they almost with
out exception believe in higher
prices ultimately Then why
should there be any futher decline
at all if cotton is to go back to
new high levels?
The answer is that there will
be no further decline.
Available Supply Small.
The biggest bear argument re-
Gently has been the scarecrow of
the large carry-over of spot cotton.
A strict analysis of these figures,
.5estimated at 6,824,0OO bales, show
thai their significance has been
greatly misinterpreted by those
who figure that the large carry7
over will cause still lower prices.
eAfter deducting United States mill
stocks and European mill and port