The Topeka state journal., 1919-06-20
THE PRICE OUTLOOK.

For two years, merchants. manufac-
turers construction men, distributors
of commodities. large and small shop
keepers, have literally done business
on a hand to mouth basis. Stocks of
goods kept in reserve have been at the
minimum. and in some instances, all
but depleted. Everybody has been
waiting for decline in prices. but
that decline has not materialized. and
keenest students of conditions insist it
will not come for an indefinite period
Labor, the basis of all costs, stands
firm; will not accept reductions; and
so long as labor continues high, so
long will cost of raw or finished prod
ucts rule high.
In general way it may be admit
ted that the trend of prices during the
next decade may be downward, but, as
matters look now, there is little likeli-
hood of a sudden fall in the near fu-
ture beyond the elimination of war
prices made necessary to stimulate
production in high cost plants.
The view of James B. Forgan, pres
ident of the First National bank of
Chicago follows:
While it is my belief that the gen.
eral trend of prices during the next
decade may be downward, 1 do not an
ticipate any sudden or violent tumble
in the near future beyond the elimina-
tion of war prices made necessary to
stimulate production in high-cost
! plants.
! Out of the war has come a strong
realization of the value of labor to
i lnfr- S1Nrr.,A
! ourselves to the evident fact that a
permanently higher scale of wages or
! compensation has been established for
the worlds worker, both skilled and
unskilled.
In all lines of industry, to make a
| fair profit. selling prices must be in
proportion to the cost of production.
| including the enhanced cost OF labor.
| This fact should be recognized in buy
ing as we'll as in selling.
Following a similar line of thought
bulletin issued by the National City
bank of New York says:
The symptoms of business improve
ment which were visible in April be-
/ came moro pronounced in May, and
| at the beginning of June the doubt
and pessimism which prevail in mid
winter about general trade and indus
trial conditions has mainly disap-
l
hensive of sudden and heavy slump
of merchandise prices, for ii has been
demonstrated that in most staple lines
of goods of direct consumption the de-
mand exceeds the supply The re-
ports of clearing houses and Federal
reserve banks show that the volume
| of payments thru the banks is
greater than a year ago or at any
previous time. Reports from the in
dustrial centers indicate that the de-
mand for labor is increasing. and that
there is more talk about a prospective
/ labor shortage than of unemployment
In all agricultural districts, but par
| ticularly in, the South there is a de-
mand for men on the farms.
The prices of foodstuffs are now
above the level Of a year ago or OF
last year, and this fact is generalIy
accepted as establishing existing wage
scales for the present If reports are
correct as to the low production In
prospect this year in eastern Europe
and the demand for food which viii
be made upon America throughout
the year to come. there is small
chance for a lowering of prices. Thi.
is the strong factor in the price and
wage situation in the United States.