The sun., 1919-10-12
EUROPE'S OUTLOOK
VIEWED BY BANKER
L. j. Grumbach Tells Of Trade
and Financial Conditions
Seen During q Tour.
CRISIS DUE THIS WINTER
Other Nations Getting Ahead
of America in Revival of
German Commerce.

Louis J. Grumbach of Speyer g. Co..
who returned Thursday after ten weeks
abroad, said that England and France
are seeking theoretically for German
trade, while American business men APP
pear to regard the reopening Of a great
market with indifference. Hotels In
Berlin and Frankfort are hard put to
accommodate French and English sslee-
men and trade investigators. he said
He met almost no Americans
Mr.. Grumbach left early In August
His experiences were such that he was
not inclined yesterday to recommend
European travel for tourists The for
mer European belligerents are far from
having attained a normal economic rou-
tine. and the lot Of the traveller Is Allied
with inconvenience and has something
Of hardship. The rail journey from Am
stordam to Berlin. which In antebellum
days took eight hours, now takes six
teen. Officials of both belllgerent and
neutral countries still have jumpy nerves
In dealing with travelling strangers.
He Is of the opinion that conditions
In Central Europe will reach q crisis
this winter. With food scarce and high
in price, and coal nearly unobtainable
political prospects hold the possibility
of q series of catastrophes, bht, II living
conditions can be kept static during the
cold months, improvement Is certain with
spring. and there will be no general
overturn. He was convinced Of the In
tention of the German people and Of
tia dnvernppant IN
the terms Of the peace treaty. and be-
lieves that the Germans will free them
selves from their heavy burdens II they
are sble physically and financially
Much depends upon the resumption OF
trade with other countries.
BerIin's Big Bank Untouched.
Mr.. Grumbach talked to many Of Ger
many's fnanciers. He was at the
Deutsche Bank In Berlin. This finan-
clal backbone Of the German Imperial
system and ambition hardly was touched
In its executive direction by the war
and tho revolution. Arthur Won Gwin-
ner, managing director. res gned year
ago, but his former associates retain
control. and the bank will constitute an
important factor in rehabiiitating Ger
man finance and in aiding the revival OF
industry and trade.
In describing the attitude Of England
and France toward resuming commercial
intercourse with Germany Mr.. Grumbach
quoted the following from a white paper
issued by the British Board Of Trade
Just before he left for America:
During the war 1t has been necessary
to prohibit all trading with the enemy,
but with the conclusion Of peace with
Germany the necessity for this prohibi-
~ 1NAA
that there will be a considerable demand
Of goods. As this market is now open to
all the world. 1t Is no part Of the policy
Of His Majesty's Government TO discour-
age British traders from competing
therein, and II Is desirable that British
traders should make every effort to Sc
euro a proper footing In Central Europe"
The United States instituted a system
Of licensing trading with former enemies
before Mr.. Grumbach sailed, but so far
as he saw or has heard there is not much
eagerness here to exploit the opportunity.
Economic difficulties restrain the resump-
ton of trade, but Mr.. Grumbach's i'm
pressions of Germany made him optimis-
tic as to the future. He believes the re-
sumption Of trade to be dependent only
upon the good will Of exporting nations.
Large Trade Credits Needed.
He pointed out however. that the cred
Its that arc essential to trade will agErs-
cato such Q vast sum that It appears
probable they must DO made a national
rather than q private enterprise. In this
connection he said that the United States
Is not the only source Of relief in this
hemisphere: that both Argentina and
Canada can export goods that Germany
needs. He suggested that cooperation
between the Governments of exporting
countries of the Americas might be
found practicable.
Mr.. Grumbach said that the French
Government is encouraging merchants to
trade with Germany as conditions of ex-
change operate to the advantage Of Ger
man as against American imports.
France wishes to see Germany regain
financial strength. he said. so that the
war indemnities may be paid.
In order to reorganize her Industrial
Germany needs raw mater
lsls, Mr.. Grumbach said, and. so far as
these are concerned. she must turn
largely to the United States. 'sThe
stocks are so depleted that we'll Informed
foreign observers believe 1t will take
three years unders the most favora Bile
before Germany can begin to
count as an exporting country" he said.
with tho mark selling at cents as
against tho former value of about "a
cents, Germany cannot buy much unless
she 10 given extensive and long credits
TO finance her Imports"
Mr.. Grnmbach said that while the sf-
feots of the war were evident everywhere
In Germany there Is no doubt of the
ability of the nation to rebuild itself II
conditions are favorable
German People Are sobered.
The people Of Germany. very much
sobered by the war. recognize that only
through work will they succeed in re-
covering their prestige and their lost
fortunes" he said. "As In all the other
European countries the workers found
IL hard to go back to their Jobs after
rehabilitation Tho Government paid
largo unemployment allowances En-
ployers had to pay large wages for
which they got little servios. A change
for tho better has taken plaza In many
factories there has been q demand for
pay by piece work.
Tho present Republican form Of koy-
ernment will be retained II living condi-
tons do not deteriorate materially dur
Ing the coming winter. American aid
will do much to stay the westward
march Of the Bolshevik movement. Milk
Is not generally obtainable. the scanty
supply going TO infants and invalids.
The population generally Is recover
ing from the strain imposed upon II
during five years OF war. During the
winter Of 1s1s-lsl7. the people Of Berlin
lived on beets and war bread. MAinu-