Bisbee daily review., 1919-03-09

consumption. Germany. to use figure of speech, is between the devil and the deep blue sea, the devil in this in- stance being 8 debt which appals the German statesmen and financiers. It is to their interest to make it appear as if they cannot pay anything like what the allies will demand in the way of indemnities, and every ruse and artifice will be utilized in that direc- tion. In the end, however, Germany must pay what the allies tell them is the penalty for the crimes they have committed. And Germany will pay, but without protest, threats, lamentations such as we never heard before.
 It would be easy to prove Germany is bankrupt today.
 It would be just as easy to prove she is not
 It depends wholly upon how you wish to view the situation
 / As the wealth of nations is esti- mated Germany's wealth is put at ESQ., 000, 900, ,000, and her national debt at $40, ,000. 100000. When you add to this debt the indemnities which she must pay the situation seems hopeless. That is what the Germans would like the world to think but the physicians of finance among the allies have diag- noSed Germany's case and they will prescribe a long course of treatment for the patient that may not be pleas ant for the sufferer but will be satis- flying to the others.
 What the allies will exact from Ger many is to be determined The esti- mates run from 40 billions to 100 bill lions Manifestly this could not be added to Germany's domestic debt without utterly crushing her.
 There is legerdemain in the field of finance as in other lines and we are likely to see it in the way Germany's debt problem is handled.
 Without any pretense to precedence it may be said that something after this form will be the plan:
 The allies, after arriving at fair calculation of the cost of the war to them, will estimate what it is possible for Germany to pay. They will figure that, as Germany will not have to maintain or must not maintain large navy or standing army, the billion 8 year saved will be equivalent to in terest at per cent on 20 billions
 They will insist that the internal debt of 40 billions be scaled down or deferred or beth for the allies, neces- sarily, become preferred creditors:
 They will dismiss or give scant con- sideration to this 40 billions of domes- tic obligation. It may be funded to be paid or, rather, to have interest paid after the indemities are dis charged, but not one mark until then.
 If the allies believe Germany can pay interest and principal on 50 bill lions of indemnity that will be the bill. The amount will be according to their findings and it will be full.
 Before Germany finishes paying she may pay in interest and principal dou- ble or treble the sum named as the total of the damage claim.
 As security for the debt the ma terial resources of Germany-coal mines, potash beds and other proper ties of value greater than her esti- mated national Health-may be pledged.
 The estimated national wealth of a nation is no index to the material un- developed wealth For example: The British national wealth is put at 100 billion dollars. yet the value of her coal that has yet to be mined is esti- mated at 700 billions. That last esti- mate is speculative purely, but it serves to illustrate the point
 In figuring on Germany's ability to pay, the allies will not overlook the fact that the Teutonic empire, while stripped of Alsace-Lorraine and per haps of some eastern provinces. will absorb German Austria and be as large, if not larger than before. Also that Germany's industrial and agricul- tural establishment has not been i'm paired seriously. Likewise that in the governmental overturn there has been a speedy return to order.
 To safeguard themselves in the per iod of reconstruction and after and to tighten the burden of their taxation as we'll as to make it impossible for Germany to Outstrip them commercial ly, they must draw from Germany all that Germany can bear without having her vitally impaired.
 No person now on earth probably