The Bridgeport times and evening farmer., 1919-05-13
HENRY CLEWS'
 WEEKLY LETTER

Ed A&hSRE EG ASa
 The most drastic yet the most just peace treaty the world has ever seen has just been put before Germany. There is no doubt about it's being signed, in spite of protest. Ger many's power for harm has been ab- soluteIy destroyed, and her future rulers will have to devote themselves to rebuilding Germany upon very diff ferent ideals from those which wrecked the recent empire. Unfor- tunately for Germany, she shows no evidence of repentance, no recogni- tion of the enormous crimes which she has committed, and only faint re- aization of the ostracisn she has in cured from the civilized world. Let us hope that the German conscience will be awakened, for in that direc- tion alone can her future salvation be found. A very heavy economic bur den will be imposed upon Germany, but probably not more than she can bear. The indemnity will be paid; and by industry, thrift and efficiency Germany with her great genius for organization, will recover her indus trial and commercial position more quickly than expected.
 Effects of Peace Pact.
 The effect of assured peace upon the world will be to hasten the re- turn of normal conditions. Many restrictions upon foreign trade will soon disappear. Great international enterprises which have long been suspended will soon be put into op- eration, and as a result of the war we may look for widespread exmn- sion of commerce and industry. The worlds shipping will be more frea for commercial purposes. Gradually but surely traffic will grow and industry revive. Peace will be the first step towards reducing the cost of living because millions of men will turn from idleness to productive industry, while the scarcity of food, minerals, high prices will eventually disappear Before the war Germany imported s2S9O. 100000 of merchandise and exported S2,220, 100000. A consid- erable portion of this trade will be soon recovered. Our exports ol copper, oil, cotton, leather, etc, must soon be resumed to Germany on a large scale, in fact, considerable quan- titles of these products have already been shipped to foreign countries in anticipation of this demand Ger many's foreign trade was chiefly with the British Elm pire and the United States, and unfortunately the hatred she has incurred with these nations will be an impediment to her recov- cry.
 An Era of Imitation.
 There is no disgusting the fact that this country Is running full speed un- der the stimulus of war imitation, such as has followed all great conflicts How long 1t will continue, whether one, two or three years, no one can tell. Such movement are too ofter ended only by exhaustion, which is not yet in sight, or by some unexpect- ed catastrophe. Fortunately the sit l uation is still sound, and over-expan. sion of credit has not yet reached the danger point, thanks to the strength and elasticity of the new Federal re
 serve system. Of course any human | organization may be overloaded, but | our bankers guided by past experience can be depended upon to put on the brakes when necessary, while the 1 Federal reserve mana gers themselves | can and will exercise powerful re- | straint. The leading merchants of the l interior display great confidence in 9 i season of active trade during the lat l ter half of the year, based upon un- usual agricultural profits. Steel pro- 1 ducers expect a big demand for their l products later on from the raiIroa ds l from building contractors and auto- l mobile makers. Oil producers set i big business ahead owing to the ire 1 mendous expansion in the use of oi l for power and fuel Agricultural anC l animal products are sure to be export 1 ed in large quantities at good prices tc 1 fill the void in Europe Cotton vii 1 go forward freely when the cottor mills of Europe fairly resume. Textile 1 manufacturers here are calculating upon a large home and foreign de mand For copper there is a better ] inquiry, and we are exporting coal il | very considerable quantities in place
 of Great Britain, which before tht 1 war was the worlds greate-t coal eX i porter. Our foreign trade is alrea dy
 reviving, exports having risen from l s522, ,00O,0O0 in November to $605, OO0,OO in March. Imports are gain
 ing somewhat but not in sufficient vol
 ume to pay for exports; and it is on
 of the problems of the future as t
 how far Europe will be able to pa. | for the immense quantities of raw ma
 terials that she requires. There mal
 be a limit to our accepting paymere
 in securities, investments of loans; | contingency that would quickly chec4 1 our exports Fortunately, however 1 Europe Is recuperating and becoming
 better able to send merchandise here The outlook for shipping continues f excellent and the supply of freight 1. l still far greater than available ton
 mage, Ship owners expect great pros
 perity for months to come.
 Victory Loan to Success.
 Attention in the financial distric 1 hos been very largely devoted to push. | ing the Victory Loan. At periods subscriptions Jagged disappointingls owing to the absence of patriotic l stimulus which was a powerful factol