New-York tribune., 1919-02-17
The lllusory Price Panic

The popular impression of a consider
able lowering of the level Of wholesale
prices since the ending of the war is
not borne out by the tables published
by Deul's Reuiow. The index Of prices
for all commodities has receded only
from 230.5 on November l to 22O7 on
February l. That is only about 4 per
cent. The highest point of Dun's aver
ages was on October 1, when it reached
1882. The decline from this point,
therefore, amounts to Sc per cent. On
August !, 1914, Dun's index stood at
1907, so that it is now still full 100
points above the beginning of the war.
The lowest level reached by these aver
ages since the Civil War was 72.4, in
1897, so the average of all wholesale
prices is now three times what it was
a little over twenty years ago and about
80 per cent above the average of the two
or three years preceding the war
AS is invariably true of price levels"
the rise and fall have varied widely in
the different groups. In the Dun aver
ages, for example, broadstuffs reached
their highest point in August of 1917 and
are now about 2S per cent below this high
level. Meats did not strike their high
point until year later-that is. last
September-and arc now very little un-
der this high figure. Dairy and garden
produce WAS highest in June, 1917, and
has declined about the same as bread
ctOfTC R11f sfOfbor !
etc, reached their apex this January and
are now at practically the same level.
Clothing made a high mark last July
and has since declined about per cent.
Metals and foodstuifs were highest at
the same time-that is, in August of
1917-and have since declined about 10
per cent. But, on The other hand, the
group of miscellaneous" was highest
this January, and shows but little reces-
sion.
The expectation Of violent fall in
prices when the war came to an end has
not thus far been realized in any way.
Predictions as to price movements arc
usually perilous, and it might be equally
perilous to draw any conclusions from the
course of prices in the last three months.
There has been d sharp recession in COP
per and lead among metals and in cotton
and wool among farm products But corn
and other commodities not under the
price-fXing regime have shown relatively
little decline; and the same is true of
meats, dairy products and the like. The
only very notable declines from the high
points reached during the war have been
in breadstuffs, and this, of course. in
cludes -four which in turn rests on the
guaranteed price of wheat This proves
the contention made in these columns
that the price fixed for wheat was then
very low, relative to other commodities
and there is no reason to COMPLAIN of if
now. If the wheat growers accented q
severe reduction in 1917 and 1918. thew
are entitled to some consideration now.
AT the present time there seems a thin
prospect, in view of the worldwide de-
mand Tor wheat, meats and dairy prod
ucts, of any extensive reduction in food
prices. This has more to do with the
general question Of wages than anv Of
VHc ot"el groups mere VIII be an auto
matte lowering of wages in mining and
other industries where the scale is fixed
upon the market price of the product.
But it is clear that the railway unions,
for example, will stoutly resist any low
erlng of wages, and the shipbuilders of
Seattle were actually striking for raise.
Recessons in other lines will be bal
anced by the marked revival of building.
and possibly also by increases in export
trade.
With food prices, transportation rates
and general wages strongly resistant to
any notable reductions, it seems difficult
ut the present time to forcsee anything
like an immediate drop to pre-war levels
or, perhaps, any very serious reductions
at all.