Pine Bluff daily graphic., 1919-11-16
MEXICO 5 FINANCIAL FUTURE NOT CAUSE
 0F GRAVE CONCERN
Treasury Secretary Paints It Neither Darkly Pessimistic
 Nor Encouraging.

Washington, Nov. 13.-Luis Ca-
 brera, secretary of the Mexican
 treasury, discussing the economic conditions in Mexico in his annual report to congress, details of which have reached Washington through official channels, declares that there is TO reason for extraordinary opti- n1ism or for black pessimism. He estimates the revenue for the year 1919 at 149,3s4,o00 pesos, although President CarranZa, in his massage to congress, Sept. l, 1919, estimatei 1t at 162,000,000, passing his estimate on the returns for the ten months from September, 1918 to June of thss year. The revenue for 1920 is esti- mated at 167 100000 pesos.
 In submitting this report to the house of deputies, Secretary Cabre- ra says that while the difficulties experienced by the federal treasury. due to causes well known to all, are fare from having disappeared, un- mistakable signs of improvement have been noted in many aspects or the economic conditions of the nation and hence in the financial situation of the federal government" He ad- mits that Mexico was formerly and still is dependent upon foreign capi- tai, in discussing conditions in al the so-cailed, young nations" of the world which, he says, have experi- enced the suspension of the influx of capital from countries economi- cally stronger" and are exerting vigorous efforts to be sef-support- ing"
 Effects of both of these influences have been felt in Mexico, he says, ard will continue to be felt, in part at least, during 1920. The report confesses that ''our economic life WIS based formerly on continuous stream of capital from abroad. this resource not being open to us at pres ent except in a very limited way
 Secretary Cabrera says the im- ports for the first four months of the year amounted to 7S,0O0,000 pes os, as against 54,00O,00O in the cor responding period last year. The ex- ports show decrease from 122,230,- 900 pesos from the first four months of 1918 to 108,500,Op0 for the cor responding period this year. Mexi- can experts point out that this means that the balance of trade was so fav- orable to Mexico because of the cry ing need of the world for raw prod ucts which to large extent, still ex- ists through the reconstruction days. following the war, but that Mexico Is unable to take advantage of these conditions because of the serious sit nation within her borders.
 The report caused some disappoint- ment because it did not indicate what steps vii be taken to meet the currency situation resulting from the increase in the price of silver. The subsidiary coinage, which under the best conditions was nsSer great :n Mexico, is now leaving the country rapidly. Constructive suggestions were expected from the secretary of the treasury to meet this great finan- cial problem confronting the govern ment.
 Secretary Cabrera regrets that it has not been possible to resume pay ment of the public debt service but explains this by the statement that countries that have gone through such an upheaval as Mexico has ex- perlenced in the last ten years have often been in more critical cond;- tlon. He estimates the import dues for the year at 4S.0o0,00O pesos as against 25.000.00O last year: export dues at S,000.000 as against 14,O0O,- o0O last year, the loss being due, it IS said, to plans for reducing export duties, considered economically un- sound, to encourage industry and for eign investments; mining tax dues at l6,0O0.0OO as against 13,000,0O last year; and the federal taxes at 32.- 100000 as against 31,000.O0O last year. No mention is made Of the revenues derived from foreign and domestic properties seized by the Carranza government although last year they gave 1,500,000 pesos to the government. The oil tax is given at l2,OO0,0o0 pesos, the same as last year, although the American con,pan- ies paid l3,0o0,000 pesos in ten months of last year.
 It IS pointed out in the advices from Mexico City that these arc merely estimates. as statistics are not available on which to base an ae curate statement as to the real re- turns It is probable that 1t will be some time before such statistics are available but President Carranza. n ms message to congress last month, admitted for the first time that the deficit for 1917 was 35.0oo. .O00 pesos and for 1918 1s,000, ,0o0 pesos. It is also pointed out, as an example of the untrustworthiness of Mexican of ficiai estimates, that for the period for which Cabrera now figures reve nues totaling 67,o00,0o0 pesos. Ra- fael Nieto, when acting head of the treasury, submitted an official esti- mate that the revenues would be 4I2,0Q0.000 pesos.
 Says Dances Cost
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