New Britain herald. [microfilm reel] (New Britain, Conn.) 1890-1976, 1919-01-04
Henry Ckeu' S
Weekly Letter
Especial to the Herald1

the one word which describes both
present and future. In a business
sense the first factor In readjustment
Is defiatton. Prices and credit were
unduly inflated as q result of war,
and now that peace has come the
current has turned and is running in
the opposite direction. In commodi-
ties reaction has already commenced
and not few staple commodities are
unmista kably on the downward path.
Now that the government has re-
leased its control OF the markets nat
ural influences are already exercising
their sway. The movement is not or
derby because the sudden withdrawal
OF government control left many Of
the markets in a. confused condition.
They had literally been put to sleep
by regulation. and are somewhat
slow about waking up to their re
stored freedom.
II Is surprise to many that In
spite of war. peace finds q, number of
our markets well supplied. though
scarcity was anticipated in many
quarters, The government holds vast
stocks Of many articles which it will
nave to dispose OF, though the au-
thorities announce that this will be
dun ping In nearly all essential
raw materials there is plenty for i'm
mediate needs No scarcity Of food is
in sight. There is a larger number
Of cattle in the country than a year
ago. Grain is fairly plentiful, and
winter wheat promises a huge crop.
There is plenty of cotton, plenty Of
leather. plenty of Oil, plenty OF steel.
and so on. No anxiety need be felt
on this score. More concern may be
felt regarding the large supplies OF
various commodities in storage at
high prices. Bankers look at this
factor with more or less caution; and
the desirability of at least partially
Debating credit promises to lead to
more or less liquidation. In brief,
the tendency Of commodities may be
downward for some time to come and
during the next three months it is
quite reasonable to expect q shrink
age in both commodities and credit.
While this may tenn porarily restrain
trade and induce some fesitancy, it
will eventually stimulate buying and
aid in the revival of enterprise, post
poned because OF high prices. About
the only scarcity to be noted is in Ia
Dor. The return Of soldiers from the
front affords partial relief in the la
Dor situation, but jobs are plenty and
ages are likely to be maintained for
the present in view OF the high cost
OF living.
In some sections of the country
high degree of prosperity is assured
for a considerable period ahead. The
wheat growers especially have a
wonderful future. Our government
has generously agreed to pay $2.26
per bushel at Chicago for the next
two crops. This is a highly profitable
price, and farmers may be depended
upon to grow every possible bushel.
The bargain I fear will prove a los
ing one. The farmer, however, will
roll in prosperity, stimulating bust
ness in his section. The cotton plan
ter is also getting big prices for his
product, and will enlarge the product
to meet the revival of foreign de-
mand. AS nearly all agricultural
products are enjoying high margin
Of profit, the farming classes general
~ will be prosperous The same ap-
plies to industrial centers where
wages are high and business active.
Enterprise should show some revival
when spring arrives and construction
is renewed.
variety of conditions was respon-
sible for the weakness in securities
during the last few weeks. Chief of
these was the unSettlement induced
by shifting from war to peace
basis. Readjustment was often diff
cult and costly. In some cases heavy
losses We're incurred, and the fact
that they had been anticipated did
not entirely countera CT their effect
upon business sentiment. Many new
problems are causing hesitancy, espe-
cially those depending upon the out
come Of both Federal and State leg
islation The new revenue bill is by
no means in final form, and there is
the posi- bilitv that it will be 80 long
delayed in conference committee that
it may not be passed this session; in
which Use a new bill would be draft
ed for the next session. Such rumors
may not prove true, but they induce
hesitation. Not q few industrials
have been weakened by present dras-
tic tax proposals, which will make
heavy inroads upon excess pr offs and
result in lower dividends. War profits
and war wages are COMO, Railroads
shared in the decline latest returns
of earnings being OF a very unsatis-
factory character and indicating q
heavy drain upon the Government un-
less conditions improve. There is rea-
son to hope that they will, Traffic
conditions are much better than
year ago, when the entire system was
badly crippled by freight congestion
and extreme cold. Economies are
also being introduced that should aid
net results. The same is partially
true Of industrials, which are rapid
" getting back to normal peace
basis.
As already stated, good business
is expected this year in the agricul-
tural and industrial districts, because
Of big crops at good prices and plen-
t,r OF wnrl1 a good wages. DeDreS-