New-York tribune., 1919-12-28
u. S. Business Men Who
HaveLooked OverCround
Find Little Hope for Any
Immediate Improvement
Low Mark Value Cause
Specialization Plans and
Heavy Taxation Add to
Unrest Among All Classes
BY William c. Dreher

BERLIN, Dec St has been inter.
esting to mo to observe the reaction
upon the minds of American business
men Of visit to Germany. These
men have come here in considerable
numbers during the last four or five
months. Not few of them had pre-
eious knowledge 2f German business
conditions; hence, there was rather
pronounced optimism among them as
10 Germanys economic future.
They knew, some of them, the Ger
many that existed before the war
They knew or had heard of the Ger
man capacity for hard and intelligent
work, for applying science to business
and production and for organizing
manufacturing and trading interests
effectively Americans of this kind
fancied that they would find the same
Germany of ante-bellum times So
their own business prospects; they felt
sure they would be able to sell goods
IN large quantities here.
All Disappointed
Ore of these Americans called to see
me yesterday. I had met him some
some three months ago, soon after his
arrival. Since then he has been most
ly at Hamburg. There is where the
import trade of Germany before the
war was chiefly centered, and he
thought. after his disappointment
here. that his best chances would be
among the big importing houses
there. But he came back here again,
disappointed.
The general trend of his report was
that it is practically impossible to do
business here with American goods
owing to the vast depreciation of the
German currency. The dollar is now
worth about forty-five marks. which
gives the latter less than one-tcnth of
its normal value. Add to this the fur
ther fact that all American goods are
now very high in America itself, be-
sides high freight and insurance rates,
and it may be safely asserted that the
German must pay about fifteen-fold
the pre-war prices for many American
things.
But high prices and the difficulties
of doing business were not the only
things that disappointed the American
travellers. Some of them came not to
do business at all, but to look into the
general financial and business condi-
tions on which all business must de-
pend. They came, in other words, to
talk with bankers and manufacturers
and get their point of view, to look
with their eyes into the business situa-
tion and prospects.
And it was precisely this class of
Investigators that took the most cheer
less Wow of Gcrmany's plight The
situation was regarded by them as far
worse than they had expected and as
Offering but slight prospects for any
carly Improvement of a substantial
character.
What impressed them most was pre-
cisely the depreciation Of the currency
already mentioned, together with the
fact that nobody could give any au-
thentic grounds for expecting an i'm
provement in it. Not only the depre-
citation Of the marx, but also its violent
fluctuations in value, seemed to them
to exclude all hope for Germany to
get substantial financial assistance
from abroad, for neither lender nor
borrower could undertake the risk in
volved.
Pessimism Everywhere
This situation made deep impress
sion upon such Americans as were
able to comprehend it's significance.
Moreover, there was general atmos-
phere OF pessimism here that strongly
influenced their minds-pessimsm as
to business and politics, pessimism as
to taxation schemes and socialization
programs, pessimism as to the labor
situation, pessimsm as to the ultimate
loutcome of peace negotiations Alto
35ether, therefore, the conclusion was