Evening star., 1919-03-29
BY FRANK HI. SIMONDS.

the developments alike in Hungary
and in Germany in the last few days
it would hardly be an exaggeration to
say that in conservative circles the
view is now held that there is not
more than one chance in four that the
conference of peace will be able to
reach a decision which will peacefully
transform the situation here. We
have the following possibilities:
| 1. A rapid sweep of bolshevism east
ward, engulfing Germany and German
Austria in its advance.
2. The moral certainty that Ger
| many will not sign any treaty OF
peace formulated at Paris. and will
either join forces with bolshevism or
use bolshevism as a weapon against
| her enemies.
3. The almost inescapable certainty
! that when the people of England and
France and Italy discover that after
six months of promises, following
| four and a half years of sacrifice, they
have to bear the burden of another
war. and are not to enjoy the bless
ings of peace and the fruits of victory,
they will turn on their own govern
| ments, and eastern and western eco
nomic and political unrest will meet
at the Rhine.
4. The possibility is that the con-
ference of peace still will be able to
| make up its mind what the peace
terms shall be, and will possess alike
| the power and the will to enforce
those terms.
Can Bolshevism Pass Rhinep
Turning now to the first Of the four
possibilities: Can bolshevism sweep
westward? The answer rests upon
conditions which we can only partial
| ly estimate. but in my judgment Paris
today recognizes the possibility. the
very obvious possibility. that we shall
have bolshevism on this side of the
Rhine within six weeks.
Agents Of bolshevism already are
here 1 sat beside a French general
at luncheon at Colmar last Sunday
and he told me that already he had
been compelled to arrest Russian boil
shevist agents who were pouring into
southern Alsace, amply provided with
funds. He told me also that Alsatian
soldiers who had been forced into the
German army and compelled to serve
on the Russian frontier, were coming
back now to their homes corrupted
by bolshevist ideas. which they had
encountered on the Russian front.
| I do not believe there is q single
thoughtful man in Paris who would
venture to forecast certain disintegra-
tion of bolshevism before It arrives
across the Rhine, or guarantees that
1t would anywhere dnd decisive re-
sistance.
In its Afsf stage was more poiitieal
than bolshevigt, that the Hungarian
took one hook ut the map OF their
country which the Paris conference
had agreed upon and then adopted the
garments and disguise, II not the
principles. Of bolshevism.
Unquestionably they sought to ter
rify ethe west with the specter Of
belshevism, but nowhere in Europe is
material to make bolshevist fire more
easily available than in the Hungarian
state. where the agrarian condition
to revolution.
Attempting to scare western Europe
by adopting the disguise Of bolshe-
vism Hungary has in fact taken a
deadly risk, and tomorrow no one
would be surprised to learn that the
trick of Karolyi. -.
Germany May Refuse to Sign.
| In Paris today who believes seriously
| that the Germans will sign the treaty
| Of peace II this treaty will deprive
Germany of Alsace-Lorraine, East
Prussia, Posen, part Of SILICA and Of
Schleswig. 1t will take 5000, 900 peo-
! pie who were before the war. German
| subjects: 1T will take all shipping, all
colonies. and impose a debt of upward
Of $40. 900. 0oO, 900.
! In this situation, nothing seems
moro certain than that Germany will
adope the policy Of Trotsky and Lenin
| at Brest-Litovsk, and at one time re-
fuse both to sign and to fight And il
Germany does this, what will be the
result?
Can't starve Germany, Hoover Says
Many people think we could starve
Germany, but I asked Mr.. Hoover that
question recently, and he expressed
the opinion that food could not be a
| weapon to coerce Germany. We may
invade Germany. but that means max
ing new campaign. They may be
unable to resume their industry, but
we shall be unable to collect any of
our indemnity.
By refusing to sign they may hope
to proiong the situation to their own
advantage. By signing they must ac-
| cept, If not a death sentence, a SEN
tence of economic servitude for gen.
| eratfons; a just sentence IL ever
there was one. but no less fnsupport-
able because 1t is just.
| Passing now to the third possibility,
1t will be seen that some time within
the next three months there is a very
great possibility that the govern
ments Of France and England will
have to tell their people that instead