The sun., 1919-09-07

Your Majesty KNOWS too That the DOW
string is drawn SO taut II may break at
any moment.
Says Germans Were Blinded.
But once serious disorders occur IN
Germany or with us It will be impossible
to conceal them from our foes and at
that moment all further efforts to gain
peace will be futile.
do not believe that the internal sit
uation In Germany Is materially differ
ent from ours only fear that the mill
tary circles at Berlin are blinded by GER
tain illusions and self-deceptions.
am firmly convinced that Germany,
exactly as ourselves, has reached the
end of her strength, and this is by no
means denied by the responsible political
personages at Berlin.
am imbued with the rocl1like convic-
ton that II Germany should attempt to
carry through another winter campaign
there will be internal upheavals which to
me, as the responsible defender OF the
dynastic principle, appear far more
ominous than would a bad peace con-
cluded by the monarchs.
II the rulers of the Central Empires are
unable to make peace within the next
few months then the peoples will make
II over the monarchs' heads, and then
sweep away all that for which our broth
ers and sons are still fishting and dying
this very day.
Predicted Date Of War.
Surely / do not wish to make an
''oratio pro domo," but I beg your Maj
esty graciously to recall that for two
years ! alone predicted Rumania's en-
trance into the war against us; that
preached to deaf ears. and that when
two months prior to the outbreak Of the
war l prophesied virtually the day OF
Its beginning 1 found credence nowhere.
Just as convinced as / was of the cor
rectness of my diagnosis then am
certain of the infallibility of my view
to-day. and cannot repeat often enough
that we cannot afford to underestimate
the dangers which 1 see grow and grow
and grow.
Americas entrance into the todr has
,Cithout question aggravated the sttUd-
ton materially 1t may be true that
months may pass before America can
throto appreciable electives into the
fighting front, but the moral element,
the factor upon which the Entente Is
pinning fresh hopes, alters the Situation
to our disadvantage, because our enc
mics have much more time before them
much longer than we, unhappily, can af-
ford to wait
What development the Russian situa-
| ton will undergo cannot be predicted to-
day. 1 hope-and this may be regarded
as the weak point in my whole argu-
ment-that Russia has lost its driving
power for a long time perhaps forever,
and that this important factor will be
properly exploited.
Forecast Italian Offensive.
Nevertheless expect a Franco Brit
ish and perhaps also an italian often
sive almost Immediately. hope and
believe that we shall repulse these two
attacks. II we do this-and l figure
that it may be done within two or three
months-then we must. before America
again alters the situation to our dis
advantage. make a far-reaching, de
tailed peace proposal, and we must not
| shrink from making sacrifices, perhaps
very heavy sacrifices,
In Germany great hopes are set in the
U-boat war. consider this hope a
false one. l do not for moment deny
| the miraculous successes of the German
naval heroes i admit with admiration
that the number of tonnage sunk each
month is phenomenal--but state the
fact that the success expected aud pre-
dicted BY the Germans has not been
achieved.
Your Majesty will recall that Ad-
| m.ral Holtzendorff during his visit in
| Vienna positively predicted to us that
unrestricted U-boat warfare would put
England out of business within six
months. Your Majesty will further re-
call how we all combated these prophe-
cies and declared that while we did not
1 4 hot he ia m
age England, the success predicted for
1t wol6d likely be offset by America g
entrance into the war
British Collapse Not Thought OF.
Two and half months-that is. near
| ly half of the stipulated period-have
passed since the inauguration of unre-
| stricted U-boat warfare, and all the
news we have from England agrees that
a collapse of this most powerful and
most dangerous of our enemies cannot
even be thought of.
| If your Majesty. despite your grave
| doubts, yielded TO the German wish and
| allowed the Austro-Hungarian navy to
participate in the U-bOat warfare. this
was done not because we We're converted
by the German arguments but because
your Majesty considered 1t absolutely
imperative to proceed in loyal comrade-
ship OF arms with Germany in all fields
of operation, and because we had gained
the conviction that, unhappily Germany
| was not to be dissuaded from the re-
solve to inaugurate the unrestricted sub
| marine campaign.
But to-day even in Germany the en-
thusjastic adherents of that campaign
probably are beginning to realize that
this means will not be decisive and
bring victory, and l hope that the idea.
unfortunately erroneous. that England
can be forced to make peace In a few
months will lose ground even In Berlin.
Nothing is more dangerous than to
believe khe things one wishes for; moth
ing more detrimental than the principle
of not wanting to see the truth and to
abandon ones self to utopian illusions,
which soon or late must bring forth a
terrible awakening.
Suggests an Opening.
Even within few months England
the driving power OF the war. will not
have. been forced to lay down arms; but
perhaps-and in this ! admit a limited
success of the U-boat war-perhaps
England will ask herself within a few
months whether II would be wise and
reasonable to carry on the war zen
outrance" or whether it would not be
more statesmanlike TO tread the golden
bridges, provided such are built by the
Central Powers, and then the moment
will have arrived for far reaching. pain
full sacrifices on the part of the Central
Empires
Your Majesty has rejected the re.