The Bamberg herald. [volume] (Bamberg, S.C.) 1891-1972, 1919-10-02
BELIEVES SOUTHERN FARMER
WILL EMERGE TRIUMPHANT.
Better Turn Coming
Bears Win Round One, But Next
Round Will Be Different,
Says Rowntree.


ing t'round one" the bears have had
everything their way, Mr.. Rowntree
looks forward with optimism to the
<snext round" at the conclusion of
which, he frankly predicts, the South
will be found triumphant "and the
Southern farmer will have come into
his own"
Mr.. Rowntree made the following
statement:
''While the ineXorable law of sup
ply and demand must ultimately de-
termine the level of values. the next
important item in the final analysis,
and one that has not been considered
in many of the discussions, is the
morale of the Southern farmer.
Psychology Factor.
''The majority of them do not
know, nor do they pretend to know,
but little about the effects of worlds
visible supply, mill stocks, exports,
consumption, census reports, crop es-
Inmates, exchange money rates, for
eign labor unrest. strike troubles, or
any of the economic factors that en-
ter into making of the market and
cause it to vary as certain incidents
occur that are bullishlv or bearishly
construed. But they do know that
they had a taste of thirty-siX-cent
cotton last fall, since when none of
the cotton goods they use have de-
clined. and that, if necessary, they
will eat corn bread and hold their
cotton until they get it again. And
here enters upon the scene the psy-
Geological fact that they want cotton
to advance, and want it so bad that
they only see the elements that favor
an advance, until they allow their
desires to so influence their judgment
that they really believe it is going to
advance; and believing this as they
do, they will not sell unless it does
advance, which is thewinning card
in the game of draw as this will
advance, which is the winning card
the majority of farmers have realized
more cash the past few months than
ever before cut off their grain and
other crops, they are in position to
hold until next year if necessary. And
they will have the help this year of
the Southern banker, many of whom
realize that they were duped this last
spring by insistant, preconceived, or
ganized bear propaganda, predicated
upon the assumption that if the
Southern banker got scared the spot
holders would be forced to sell, which
is. just what happened in many in
stances around the twenty-cent level.
ssSix weeks ago practically all the
big operators and interests in New
York City were predicting that cot
ton would hit forty cents per pound
in few days more. This caused
considerable long interest to accrue,
thus weakening the technical condi-
tion of the market and making it pos
sible for heavy selling to start the
break and make the longs run. this
additional selling causing the decline
to go still further. Now. while these
same interests are putting out lot OF
pessimistic dope and figures showing
that cotton must decline still further
on account of present ruinous condi-
tions. they almost without exception
believe in higher prices ultimately.
Then why should there be any further
decline at all if cotton is to go back
to new high levels? The answer is
that there will not be much further
Decline"
Bears Offer Scarecrow.
''The biggest bear argument recent
" has been the scarecrow Of the
large carryover of spot cotton. Sstrict
ANALYSIS of these figures. estimated at
e.So4.0O0 bales. shows that their
significance has been greatly misin-
terpreted by those who figure that
the large carryover will cause still
lower prices. After deducting U. S.
mill stocks and European mill and
port stocks which are not available
to the short seller. of 200. 900 bales:
linters. 100000 bales: low grade cot
ton not tenderable on contract ap-
rroximately 1 ,OOO. 900 we have 2.o24.-
600 bales left. Included in this bal
ance are the warehouse stocks here.
large per cent. of which have already
been bought for foreign account, thus