New-York tribune., 1919-02-16
Real Guarantees of Peace

In the middle of July, 1914, the world
was at peace, with no expectation of war.
Two weeks later armies were on the
march and the fury of the great storm
had come.
What would have prevented the great
attack? What machinery or purpose, if
it had been present, would have sufficed
to avoid the gigantic horror? In view of
the record Of fifty-6ye months ago, is the
tentative scheme which has been sub
mitted to the peace conference enough, If
adopted, to satisfy the demand of "Never
Again" which has risen in every land?
AS they answer this question men will
approve or condemn the peace project.
The Hague convention did not stop the
launching of the great blow, although
its preamble breathed beautiful love of
peace and its text provided for methods
of arbitration; the most definite interna-
tional pledges, as in the case of Belgium,
did not save a single life; the public
opinion of the world did not restrain
Germany, although it is doubtful if ever
public opinion will be more united in con-
demnation than in 1914; repeated offers
of mediation and arbitration were of no
value; international organizations of
labor and religion, all expressing the ut
most solicitude for peace, availed nothing.
The inference is unacceptable that SO
far as the new scheme but reiterates
Hague principles, or relies on unsup-
ported public opinion or a community of
Judgment, it is not enough. Peace must
have other and better bases.
What would have prevented the war?
What deterring element was lacking in
1914? Sazonoff, of Russia, whose vision
was clear, announced it when he said that
II Great Britain would but declare her
solidarity with France and Russia, then
'here would be reason for thinking Ger
many would draw back Sir Edward
trey did not feel at liberty to make such
declaration, and the war came
had Germany definitely known she
would be called on to face, not dual,
but a triple alliance, her rulers would
have changed their minds. Great Brit
ain, quite as much as France and Rus
sia, recognized the nature and quality
Oh the German policy, and identified the
assack on Serbia as indefensible, but
saere was fatal holding back. Ger
many went to war becaus she dared so
70 oo-Decause it seemed to her as If
sae would not be compelled to meet pre-
ponderant power.
The Sazonoff incident is full of pres
ent instruction. Let any nation meditat-
ing attack realize that she must meet
anu overcome the opposition Of the five
great nations now in conference in Paris
and peace will reign.
40 particular machinery is necessary
tnere is an infexible determination of
me hye nations. No machinery will
"ucn help if the infexible determination,
founded as it must be on mutual conf
aence, is absent
ms Is the crux Of the peace problem,
ana although men of muddled minds
AsSe sought to obscure it, the shining Of
~ light is more and more clear. Not
y paper constitutions will the peace
kept, but by maintaining a sympa-
"'s''c harmony among the peoples who
Aass b. the peace keepers. Hence the
s1sas sin Of all Of those who seek to SOW
diseord.
@as nere is another way of insusiAg
ssAce' not referred TO by SazonoR. 1t Is
ossarning those Who may be Justly
'p'ssed VI harboring bad designs. Our
s'atners were common sense men and
project their frontiers they kept
p'ls from the Indians. Judging the
Hs On their record, they were un-