Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1919-08-17
EXPLAINS OPTIMISM
AMONG F|NANC|ERS
American Goods and For
eign Markets Magazine
Gives Reasons.
PREDICTS PROSPERITY

mo reasons TOT the optimism which
is evident in we'll informed financial
circles are broadly sketched in the
current issue of American Goods and
Foreign Markets, semi monthly
publication of the Guaranty Trust
Company Of New York, devoted to
foreign trade.
The review, which gives its custom
airy summary of trade conditions in
the various important commercial
and industrial countries of the world,
says:
Accumulated evidence gathered by
tie room for doubt that the lowest
point in the economic state of the
world was passed some time back.
and that whatever may be the tenn
per of the present moment. from
more rapid toward stability and pros
perity.
ITO support this view there is in
the first place this obvious fact: That
creased at a rate sufficient to make
the entire satisfaction of the worlds
needs a matter Of less than years,
yet the great waste of staple COM
modities.. which the continued prose-
cution of the war involved, has been
almost entirely stopped. The destruc-
ton of life, too, has ended and the
men engaged directly or indirectly in
such destruction are now, each of
them, an asset for constructive effort.
During the years that the war lasted
the world was able to feed itself and
clothe itself, despite the great proper
ton of its resources that were being
consumed in the struggle. That toll
Is no longer being eXacted and has
not been e1acted since November IL.
The world is, therefore, richer by the
amount it has saved by merely ceaS-
ing to fight.
Slow and Wasteful.
'"The transition from peace to war
was slow and wasteful operation
even in the countries best prepared
for the struggle. The transition
from war to peace. with all the re-
adjustment of industry that it i'm
plies, is but little less difficult It
has. however. this advantage, that
positive progress. each painful step
being an actual gain, each factory
restored to production taking the
world that much farther from the
edge of the precipice to which it had
SO nearly approached. each individual
who undertakes again the task which
was his during pre-war days assist
ing by the extent of his effort in
the general revival.
That such progress is being made
simfstic observer the strides that
Belgium has made must be apparent.
France for time seemed to have
become inert, to have given up the
effort to restore herself economically.
Today we have the word of unim-
passed the crisis, and is once again
attacking her tremendous burdens
with her old spirit. Italy, faced for
a time with grave disorders. Is now
presenting a much more hopeful face
to the world"
More Credit Necessary.
After a short discussion of some of
the other factors in the situation, the
"This is said. of course, without
any attempt to belittle the serious
ness of the present situation. or to
gloss over the difficulties which must
be met and overcome before normal
ity in trade relations. and particu-
larly in foreign trade relations. may
be expected. It so happens that the
United States, being in a position to
supply SO many of the worlds needs
during the war. had to extend credit
to the purchasers of these materials
until the normal exchange relations
had been entirely disrupted. To place
Europe again in production and SO to
continue our own prosperity requires
further extension of credit. The
solvency Of Europe being granted,
the problem for the American banker.
manufacturer and exporter shrinks
from an economic problem into one
Of fnance-that is, it is a question of
deciding upon the terms upon which
credit may be most advantageously
supplied.
ION both sides Of the Atlantic the
situation is identical in this respect
that settlements cannot be made I'M
til production has been resumed on
the fullest possible scale. Europe
cannot produce until food and the
raw materials. machinery and fuel
necessary to her production have
been secured from the United States,
the most available source of supply.
Those needs cannot be supplied I'M
less our own production is kept at
the highest possible level. Production
is the fundamental Of the problem.
and unless production is maintained
and increased. here and abroad, re-
forms will be useless, and all the
attention devoted to panaceas will be
SO much energy diverted from the
real crux OF the situation, and so
much q sin against civilization. In
truth. the world has no choice AS
between optimism and disaster her
course is already decided"