Evening star., 1919-04-03
GERMAN COALITION
MINISTRY "SHAKY"
Investigator Says Treaty Not
in Accord With ID Points
Will Be Rebuffed.
UNCERTAINTY FOUND RIFE
Ey the Associated Press.


| By the Associated Press.
PARIS. April 3.--Competent Germa n
and foreign observers are chary of
making any definite prediction of what
VIII come out of the welter of political
and economic disorders and develop
! ments in revolutionary Germany To
borrow an epigram of Count Won
Hernstorff. nothing in Germany now
is certain except the uncertainty of
the morrow"
The former Berlin correspondent Of
the Associated Press. returning to
Paris after six weeks devoted to a
study OF conditions in Germany. left
mat country, however, with the dis
tlnct Impression that the tenure of
the present coalition government was
Dy no means secure. although it is
1of the moment in control of the sit
uation: that there is no alternative
except that 4 radical socialist admin
lstfathon with a strong drift toward
soviet republic is possible. if the
present government fails; that re-
the present regime by further strikes
and uprising is almost certain:
that although the great mass
OF people are opposed to a bolshevik
government they can count only upon
the compare lively small force of
Noske volunteer troops to keep down
this insurrectionary movement the
masses at present being politically
too anaemic and apathetic to give
more than passive support in an
emergency; that while the Noske
troops have been able to handle the
can take sectional uprisingS in turn
success would be difficult if the Spar
tacans and their Independent socialist
allies should be able to stage u really
general strike and insurrection.
If the Spartacans' leadership is not
bile to organize such a widespread
movement the government probably
will be able to maintain itself antil
peace is signed.
AS to the peace treaty, the members
of the government and their pub
Iicists are announcing firmly. perhaps
sincerely. that no preliminary treaty
not in accord with their interpreta-
tion of President Wilson's armistice
terms will be signed. particularly if
it involves the alienation Of what
is called purely German territory.
Announcement Probably Correct.
This announcement probably is cor
rect, SO far as the cession of the Saar
district, the political alienation Of the
west bank Of the Rhine outside Of AL
sace-Lorraine. and perhaps the incor-
porat!on of Danzig in Poland are con-
cerned, but the pressure OF public
opinion, which would not easily un-
derstand or accept any failure to OBJ
tain peace, and the desperate food
eminent to modify this recalcitrant
attitude in case Of need and sign any
terms Of peace presented by the allies
except those aforementioned.
This pressure already has shown
it's effec: at the renewal of the armis-
tice in March. when the government
lad actually determined to refuse to
sign the conditions of the renewal
The government, however. was forced
to reverse its decision upon hearing
from the representatives in the ma
tional assembly. who were in closer
touch with the people.
Fate Rests on Two Factors.
The fate Of the present government
rests largely upon two counteracting
factors, the ultimate result of whose
action 1t is difficult to foresee. On
the one hand the government is itself
by no means strong or effective and
is establishing itself more and more
by the mere fact of it's continued ex-
istence. 1t also is developing q GER
tain inertia Of possession as the peo-
pie come to regard it more as a reg
ular establishment and less as an ex-
pc: Iment Or d government Of expe-
diency. Its recognized authority is
growing the longer it is able to keep
in the saddle.
On the other hand. each of the sue
cessive local strike uprisings strains
the ability Of the government to re-
store order. The dependable troops
which Noske has at his disposal to
Quell Spartacan attempts at revolt are
perhaps $4,000 to $4,000 men in all.
This number is far too few to garri-
son all the centers Of disorder stimuli
taneously, and the minister of defense
has been compelled to move them
from one scene of disorder to another,
keeping the troops almost constantly
on the move.
The appearance of force given by
the disciplined troops of Minister
Noske has each time meant the COL
lapse or the uprising, but the time may
come when either simultaneous out
breaks in too many places or the ex-
hauStion and encouragement Of the
Noske volunteers may spell the tri-
umpn of the second revolution About
10000 o. these troops are reported to
have been concentrated in the Berlin
district to put down the insurrection
in March. the men being withdrawn at
considerable risk from other danger
points. The troops are still sitting on
the lid in Berlin, be many Of them
must be withdrawn il or when the in
surrectionary movement breaks out
elsewhere.
Government Unable to Finance.
The government itself is not able to
finance even this small army and
seeks voluntary contributions from
industrial and financial concerns
The owners of Berlin factories. for
instance, passed the. hat Some time
ago and in one afternoon raised
fund OF 100000 marks for the
troops. Large Berlin banks made an
equal contribution. This was only
one of similar installments raised
at various times and places.
The republican guards and other
popular military organizations. al
though nominally supporting the gov
ernment. are more of menace than
an asset. as they are poorly disci-
plined and largely infected with Spar
tacan ideals. Considerable numbers