Republican farmer., 1919-07-25
HENRY .CLEW;S:,
 e z" WEEKLY,


 1 Y The striking factor irsthe business ! outlook is the assured prosperity of l bumper crop and the government l guarantee of s2.28 per bushel; part | of which comes out of the taxpayers I pocket, and is therefore a shifting l rather than production of wealth. The outlook for other crops is fair as to yeild; the chief disappointment | being cotton, which will be much be- ! low the normal, or about 100000
 bales. High prices, however, will
 more than offset diminished output, | so the prospects of unusual agricul- l tura1 prosperity are undimmed. The
 wheat crop is roughly valued at over 1 s2,50o, 100000, and the entire har-
 vest at over s2o,Oo0,O 10000, which l would go far toward meeting our na- l tional outlay for the war. Interior l merchants are stocking up with more | confidence, though high prices and l great credit expansion occas onally
 induce q desirable mixture of con- | servatism. In the industrial field
 steel seems to occupy leadership. En- | larged demands for export, for rail-
 roads, for oil. shipping, building and
 other industries are inevitable, and 8 I | cent. of capacity and over, which Is 1 more than at any time since the loss i of war contracts. Building is be- looming more and more active owing | to urgent demand for housing and 1 office room; and the call for new in- | dustrial plant is only less urgent than | might be expected because a large l part of war construction on these
 lines is being taken up by peace in I T traffic are improving; the volume in | the grain districts having already ] visibly increased. In merchan distng | lines summer quiet temporarily pre- | vails, but preparations are in order | for an active fall trade. Labor is
 well employed, despite the large
 number of men back from the war. | The unemployed are few, and advices | from many directions report a scar | city of help which Is undoubtedly
 true. A considerable number Of alien | 1aborers are returning to their native | lands, and more are expected to fol- | low, but not so many as extreme esti-
 mates indicate. The outward move ! ment is swollen by those held back during the war. The certainty of | securing better work and wages here l than in Europe will, however, be | deterrent upon any excessive efflux. l The high cost of food, clothing and
 shelter Is an important factor in the | outbreaks of unrest which appear | here and there in the form of strikes. | Such conditions are the inevitable
 result of five destructive years such as the world never saw before or ever | imagined possible. The only effectua1
 cure for such a famine is more | economy and more product. Only on | such lines can the worldwide l vacuum be filled. Unfortunately the 1 world is turning its back for the time ! being upon sane thinking and sound I action. It Is still sorely confused by l the multiplicity of half-baked ideas: | is prone to extravaganza and un- 1 willing to relieve the situation by larger product or more work. Inf1a- | tion does not seem to have run it's | course by any means, and high prices l coupled with imperative reconstruc- | ton insure prosperity for many 1 months If not several years ahead. As | long as the movement is so guided as | to prevent serious maladtustment and I to preserve a fairly normal balance | in the various divisions of industry, | there is little immediate danger. Con- | servative leadership will prolong the
 present wave of prosperity; while
 reckless expansion would bring 1t to | a quick end.
 1 Germany's Future.
 | Germany's resumption of trade may | be a rather slow affair. In the first | place, German purchases from the | United States will be restricted at l first to sheer necessities. because of | inability to pay in goods or gol& l Our purchases from Germany will for
 some time be small because the hos
 tile prejudice among consumers | makes it hazardous and improbable
 to carry a stock of German wares. l This applies to other countries even
 more than the United States One of
 the most serious questions will be | that of credit, though it is stated l that loan of 25 to 50 millions could ! be arranged at once Germany, how | ever, is facing difficult times calling | for much hard work and sacrifice. | There is talk already of passing the 1 interest on her public debt, which if | really done would amount to repudi- | ation or conf1scation. and serious em- | barrassment of many leading f1nan- l cfal institutions. There is, however, | one compensation, even for Germany,
 and that is relief from the costly bur | den of militarism which finally l wrecked the empire. That alone will | materially aid the recovery of Ger | many when her people ready to 1 adapt themselves to the new condi- | tions and ideals which dominate the | world
 | Weakness In Foreign Exchange. 1 Foreign exchange continues | settled and weak. Sterling again l touched the lowest on record, and
 francs and other foreign bills did | likewise; the decline. of course, being | due to the abnormal condition of our l foreign trade. The tremendous
 pressure of exports and the slow in
 crease of imports show few symp- | toms of abating. There is still much l discussion about financing export l trade during the present emergency, 1 but no satisfactory plan of adjust | ment has yet been reached. Europe l must have our food products and l crude materials, reconstruction l will stop and disorder revive. For our own good as well as that of war