The star-progress. (Opelousas, La.) 1917-1921, 1919-11-08

has been the practice to accept the
estimates of acreage planted TO diff
ferent crops as reported by the bu-
reau of the census every ten years.
Then the first year following the
census the crop reporters of the bu-
reau of crop estimates would esti-
mate the acreage planted as a per-
/ centage of the acreage reported by
the census for the preceding year;
the second year following the CEN
sus the acreage would be estimated
as a percentage of the acreage es-
timated the preceding year land so
on until figures for the next cen
sus are available. theoretically, if
there is no bias or tendency to I'M
derestimate or overestimate on the
part of crop reporters, the acreage
estimates by this method for the
tenth year after a census would
agree with the acreage reported by
the census for that year.
Condition Estimates
Condition is estimated as a per-
cent of normal, which may be de-
fined as the growers conception of
crop expectancy On his own farm,
or on the farms of his neighborhood
or county; and it is his conception
and the concensus of opinion of his
neighborhood of the probable yield
indicated by present conditions as
compared with past experience. The
normal is represented by 100 per
cent, the condition is expressed as a
percent of normal, and the numeri-
cal equivalent of normal is obtained
practically by dividing the ten-year
average of condition as determined
by the bureau of crop estimates.
AS the same men report year after
year, carrying in mind the same
conception or normal from year to
year, the averages of their individu-
al of normal are stable and strictly
comparable each year with another.
Government Usese the Normal
Gone of the questions most fire.
quently asked by interested parties"
said Mr.. Dennee, "is why does the
government ask for normal condi-
ton instead of average condition?
The answer is simple enough. There
is more stability to the idea of NOR
mall than to the average Nearly
every farmer knows what his fields
ought to yield if conditions are nor
NAL. Actual experiments have DEM
onstrated time and again that esti-
mates made in percentages of nor
NAL are more accurate than esti-
mates made in yield per acre. It's
somewhat like the old illustration of
the jar filled partly with beans
no one can tell exactly how many
beans are in the jar without count
ing them, but anyone can readily see
the jar is half full or three
quarters full, and can estimate with
a high degree of accuracy how full
the jar is on a percentage basis. 1t
should be noted that when the con-
dition Of crop at any time is esti-
mated in percentage OF normal, it is
not in comparison with any partic-
ular time in the past, as a month
ago, a year ago, or average of ten
years, but as it relates to a proba-
bic yield per acre. And inasmuch |
IS the normal is based upon a GER
ain yield per acre, it is not affec-
ed by the total acreage, whether
arge or small, increased or decreas-
ID. Therefore, condition alone Tex
pressed in percentage of normaD is
10 indication of total production,
tut merely production per acre."
Accuracy of the Reports
II know of no government in the
ntire world" Mr.. Dennee contin-
led, chat has as good a system of
rop reporting as our own. Our gov
rnment reports generally are ac-
epted as accurate by those who are
yell informed or who have occasion
o collect or study crop statistics.
70 private estimating agencies have
he facilities for collecting reliable
alta Of crop production at all COM
arabic with those of the bureau of
rop estimates, and the estimates of
rivate agencies often show the eff
ect of bias. Take cotton, for in
'ance. This is the only crop for {
-hich complete and absolute check
afforded annually, namely, by
ne census report in ginnings. For
lie nineteen years, 1900 to 1918,
lie average error of our bureau was
i underestimate of 1.5 per cent.
an anVOno olSa Shn1u 90 o,ooJ - -