The Caldwell tribune. [volume] (Caldwell, Idaho Territory [Idaho]) 1883-1928, 1919-07-11
New York, JUL 5, 1919.

.;ons affecting stock, Market cohol
. .;ons is in relation to the supply OF
tmnds for speculative purposes, and
iun Fate at which the banking insti-
t tnt will supply, call money to the
tut nc,,i.t tive channels. The July in
s sp and dividend disbursements,
nd their accompanying financing al
a AVS require the special attention of
w. banking institutions, and there
IN ~. the high rates for call loans
l irh;cb prevailed during the past few
mneks are not to be taken as cri-
tar;on. High money rates are recog-
r;zcd as the most essential factor IN
.he stock market and more attention
= being given them than on any sim
la occasion for some time.
II is safe to say, however, that the
law of extremely low call money, say
from 1H to ~ per cent, is gone, and
!. e doubtful if such conditions will
aver return. When bankers can EN-
oio,, their funds in liquid commercial
p paner bankers and tradeacceptances
and government short-term notes at
from 3Hto 5N per cent, there is small
nrospect of their preferring the call
money market at pre-war loaning
rates There will of necessity be an
ad;ustment to the higher price for
thc use of money, which will affect
The profits of the professionals more
than the outside public.
~ June Speculative Record.
The June speculative record was the
most active for that month in the
whole history of the stock exchange;
and, despite the high money rates
which prevailed during the latter part
Of the month, public participation in
speculative securities was maintained
with great interest.
Records of the stock exchange show
that the transactions in number OF
active industrial stocks have, since
fhe first of February, amounted to
several times the whole issued capital
of the 'cornarations they represent.
Thus the sales in Mexican Petroleum,
which amount to nearly 3,5OO,OOO
shares. we're over eight times the AGO.
2lO shares which represent the total
capitalization. Studebaker common,
with 100000 shares outstanding and
over 100000 shares dealt in during
the five-rnonths period, represent
eight complete changes of ownership
of the whole corporation. By the
same reckoning the 100000 shares Of
the American International Corpora
ton was turned over nearly six times
Bethlehem Steel B, five times; Cru.
chile Steel common, five times; Ma.
rine common and preferred, five ant
one-half times; the u. S. Rubber Co.
four and one-half times. Even Y. S
Steel common, with over five millior
shares of issued stock, went complete
ly under the banner more than two
and half times.
Prices--Present and Future.
Several weli-defined tendencies ii
commodity prices have upset some o
the calculations of that school o
economists who persistently predict
ed a speedy return to pre-war ba
sis. The fact has impressed itsel
upon everybody who has given NOR
than a superficial study to the sub
ject that the enormously EXTENDED
area of the war operations and tn
enormous scale upon which the wa
was conducted, precludes comparison
with any similar world catastrophe.
For the first month or two afte
the signing of the armistice there wa
little or no change in prices; with tn
opening of the wear 1919 prices move
slowly downward; during April tn
downward movement was halted an
prices advanced fractionally, partie
ularly in the retail trade. At tn
present time most prices are back t
the war level, and, in many instances
are again MOVING forward.
A great deal is being said and writ
ten about the influence of labor an
high wages upon commodity price
While this is important it is essentis
to bear in mind that the chief facte
in price revolution is to be attrit
uted to the enormous increase in tn
volume of circulating credit, ban
notes and government currency pt
out in the last two years. Ever
warning country has been compelle
to resort to some or all Of these e.
pedents, and contraction in the:
outstanding evidences of indebtedness
must positively precede the scalin
dow nof prices.
AS pointed out recently by men
Der of the Federal Reserve Boar
the larger part of the commerce.
world is in a serious condition OF II
flation, the period of economic rea'
justment will be long one, and Il
fall of prices, to which many ha'
been looking forward as an inevitab
consequence OF the closing OF the wa
will also be slow one-so slow tina
for most ordinary purposes in makir
business calculations, it may be tax
as a negligible factor. While price
looking forward over long series
years, may assuredly be expected
show downward course, the tall
prices from year to year, II is to
repeated, will probably be so small
to make possible losses from the d
cline factor of no consequence, e
cept In the case OF long-period
vestments of fixed capital upon an c
tensive scale, when It would probab
be a wise precaution to set up 50
cial sinking funds to amortize shrin
ages Of value from this cause. VII
the general trend of prices for t