The Glasgow courier. [volume] (Glasgow, Mont.) 1913-current, 1919-06-06
GREATEST WHEAT CROP
IN HISTORY FORECAST

prospect has dwindled into an actual
shortage after the first OF June. there
is every reason to believe That the
United States this summer will har-
vest a wheat crop considerably in ex-
cess of a billion bushels, and probably
somewhere between twelve and thir-
teen hundred million, the Northwest
ern Miller avs The present fore
cast of the winter wheat crop alone
is larger than any total wheat crop
ever raised in the United States ex-
cept in 1915 and 1918.
Even allowing for eleventh-hour
losses running as high as Is per cent,
and estimating the spring wheat GRO
at a mere half of what the present
acreage indicates, the total would still
be the greatest in history, running
we'll over a billion bushels.
Surplus for Export.
The people Of the United States can
not consume, as food, much more than
half of this enormous crop of wheat.
Even making ample allowance for
seed reserves and a carrying over in
the final months of the crop year,
there is likely. to be a surplus of not
less than three or four hundred mil
lion bushels. The greatest years ex-
port of wheat and wheat flour togeth-
err, expressed in terms Of wheat,
amounted to 34O,000,0 900 bushels, this
being the fiscal year ending June 80,
1915. No other year has even been
comparable to this, when all Europe
was under the strain of war, and be-
fore expectation to neutral countries
had been materially curtailed. More
over, 1914 had seen short crops in
Canada, Argentina and Australia,
leaving the United States the worlds
one great granary.
. If the conditions of 1914-15 are in
any degree paralleled in 1919-20 so
far as the worlds wheat supply is con-
cerned, and equal or even greater ex-
~portation is possible. On this point
there is still an almost unlimited un-
certainty, part agricultural, but more
essentially political.
Russia's Question Mark.
No one can tell how far the chaos
in Russia may convert that nation
from an exporter of wheat into a beg
gar, and an ~impecunious one, at that
for supplies from overseas. The ra-
tioning of Germany is dependent or
her response to the peace terms. Ev.
cry effort is doubtless being made tc
increase Europe's wheat acreage, but
conditions are so unsettled that the
size of the crop is bound to be prob.
) lematical until it is actually harvest.
ed.
The immense crop in prospect in thu
{ United States is, then, no guarant,
that, even on the basis of supply ane
l demand, there will be a marked de
7 crease in actual, as distinct from
! guaranteed, value. Another import
ant feature is that in 1920, with thu
guaranty finally removed, the whea
4 crop is likely to be much smaller, ant
4 is going to be desirable and actual,
necessary. The safety, not only of tn
United States but of the whole world
. demands that the wheat supply b.
maintained for a long time at such
point as to forestall the perils O
shortage.
Dollar Value Varies.
= When people talk of a return o
y the wheat price to anything approx
4 imately it's pre-war levels, they for
get that the value of a dollar is no
fixed, but is measured purely by wha
it will buy. If wheat in 1912 wa
worth from IS cents to SIPS, it i
certainly worth twice as much now
judging both by what a dollar will
purchase of other and unregulate'
n commodities, and by the relative i'm
p~ortance of wheat as a result of tn
war.
1t is customary to speak of tn
guaranteed price as high; but it i
I quite possible that wheat would cos
just as much if the government ha
nothing to do with it.. Wages, for in
stance, have in many cases increase
= from so to 100 per cent, corn whic
in 1918 averaged Ga cents a bushel, j
n now selling for about $1.75.
l. The prospective wheat crop of
billion bushels and more guarantee
e the United States against anythin
S ever approaching a wheat shortage
e it will enable the country to meet tn
n worlds demands, and to provide
S safe surplus to take it over into tn
n following crop year. 1t will not, how
ever, necessarily mean that the cor
gressional price guaranty is measul
s. ably holding the cost of wheat abov
2 what it would be if no such guara1
ty existed.
The control of the price of subst
tutes certainty for uncertainty, bl
+ there is at present good reason fe
y believing, as Mr., Barnes apparent
r. does, that the price which he is d
~ rected to maintain is actually, and d
le sn;te the nrospect of the greatest crc