Evening star., 1919-10-12

which Germany, by her
first application for peace. based on
the fourteen points of Mr.. Wilson
actually recognized the fact of de-
feat. In less than a month we shall
pass the first milestone since the ar
mistice definitely established the sur
render of Germany under conditions
as completely disadvantageous as
those France accepted after the fall
of Napoleon. 1t is possible then to
make brief estimate of the develop
ments of year, with a certain ad-
vantage of perspective hitherto i'm
possible.
year ago it was the belief in
America. at least, conceivably in GER
tain quarters in Great Britain, that
peace could be made on such terms as
to open the way for mutual under
standings between the nations which
had fought through the war. Ere
quentIy in American journals, at least
occasionally in British. one encoun-
tered the phrases. Peace of under
standing" reconciliation" "a heal
ing peace" Can it be said honestly
or candidly that there is even the
same shadowy prospect of reconcilia-
tion now, so far as Germany is con-
cerned. that existed year ago? 1t
seems to me not.
Passes Through Crises.
Yet in that same period Germany
has passed through several crises and
emerged from the shadow of various
perils. contrary to the expectation of
many. We are reasonably certain now
that Germany will not fall to bolshe-
vism. become a center of anarchy
comparable with that existing in
Russia. Nor is it less plain that Ger
many Is totally unlikely to dissolve
into those component parts which
were fused into national unity by
Bismarck nearly half a century ago.
All of which means that after de-
feat. after temporary eclipse, a pow-
erful Germany must emerge from
cotemporary clouds. Germany has
not been destroyed; she has not COM
mftted suicide: she remains a nation
of more than sixty millions of people,
in the heart of Europe. with a genius
Tor organization and a determination
to live, which must be reckoned with
in future not too distant. Precisely
and her hideous domestic tragedy Of
the commune, in 1871. rallied and re-
made herself. Germany seems now
certain to restore her old strength
This Germany that we shall pres
emily have to deal with. then. will be
in population. aside from Russia, the
greatest single nation of the conti-
nent. She will have at least twenty
millions more people than France;
she will be. IL she decides to follow
old policies and ambitions. quite as
dangerous as she was in the past,
because. II she has somewhat de-
clined in size. Russia, her old rival
and enemy, has disappeared as a po-
tential foe.
Now the great question the world
habflitation Is approximately certain,
is obvious: Will this restored Ger
many accept the peace made at Yer
sailles in good faith; will she consent
to live under it's terms? Or will she
observe it only while she is con-
strained and endeavor to undo it's pro
visions the moment the force behind
those provisions is relaxed? In sum,
can the treaty of Versailles become
the basis OF a reconciliation between
the German people and their recent
foes as the treaty of Paris. following
Napoleon's fall. was the basis for
ultimate adjustment between the
French and their neighbors?
Force Will Not Endure.
The answer is. it seems to me, an
emphatic and inescapable negative
The German people cannot be expect
ed to accept the treaty Of Versailles,
now or hereafter. except as it is stead
lily faced with force, guaranteeing
this treaty, which makes it unwise to
challenge it. Moreover nothing is
more certain than that force will not
endure. is already beginning to crum-
BILE. In the United States. in Great
test. not against the treaty on moral
grounds, primarily, but against it as a
document which imposes q continuing
burden upon the American and Brit
fsh publics, compels them to maintain
a state of armed preparation against
some infringement by Germany Of the
agreement of Paris.
In SO far. then. the charge that the
treaty Of Versailles is peace Of force
is justifable. 1t Is a peace contain
ing conditions which preclude con-
ciliation, understanding. a restoration
of amicable relations between the Ger
man people and the rest of the world.
1t is a treaty which demanded and de-
mands continuing force on the part Of
the conquerors of Germany to pre-
serve ~ intact. Up 10 tnlS point /
think there is general agreement on
all sides. on the part of critics and
defenders Of the document alike. Both
recognize that Germany-the German
people-cannot and will not accent the
terms: that the dream of a year ago
of a peace of reconciliation has been
shattered.
Opinion Of Various Factions.
But from this point of agreement
the opinion of various factions of the
world travels in divergent directions
1t Is asserted by some that the Ger
man people will never accept the loss
of AIsaCe- Lorraine. which was NOT
only inevitable, but was accepted by
the German government as condi-
tion antecedent to any armistice 1t
is asserted by many others, with even
greater emphasis that the Sarre
basin provisions will result in a new
Franco German antipathy, will Gre
ate a new Alsace-Lorraine Finally 1t
Is argued that the provisions of the
treaty re-establishing Poland and de-
priving Germany of West Pressuia
Posen and probably portions of ST.
lesia and East Prussia. make any but
enforced German submission impos-
sible While these three conditions are
most frequently heard in American
and British comments. the French and
many bound in the end to revolt from
q situation created by the forcible
seizure of all of her colonies. all but
a small fraction. by the British.
Now, in this welter of opinion. 1t
seems TO me it is possible to arrive
at certain reasonable conclusions.
Germany lost the last war because
she allowed herself to become in
volved in three great rivalries. In
taking Alsace- Lorraine from France