Perth Amboy evening news., 1919-08-15
TOSTART TRADE
WITH GERMANY
Intercourse to Be Resumed
Shortly, Economist Predicts
GERMANY MUST WORK TO PAY
Former Enemy Needs Vast
Supplies of Raw Waterfall
Now Negotiating a Loan
GERMANY MUST WORK TO PAY
py RTCHARD sPIIIIANE,

Noted American Economist and Bust
ness Expert, Who Is Discussing
Every Phase OF the ~Amefican-Ger-
man Trade Problem in Special Ar
ticIes Published Exclusively Ia
Perth A1nboy EVENING NEWS.
There is a broad belief that we soon
will be doing a great business with
Germany; that the Germans nav
large stores of goods in this country,
principally raw materials purchaser
with q view to use when the war end
ed. and that, aside from the preJuulc-
es and Ill feelings incidental to war,
little stands in the way OF a large COM
merce with the Germans.
This would be encouraging II true
but it is not true. At n time the
Germans did have large stocks of ma
terial in this country purchased at low
figures and with design of shipping
them TO Germany at the close of the
war but they had to dispose of them:
In the latter part of 1914 and in 1919
they accumulated perhaps l,OOO'ooo
bales of cotton, an immense amount
of wool, rubber, leather and other raw
or semi-raw materials. They got
mound and the other stuff at prices
po1lnd and the other stuff a prices
that now seem ridiculousiy low. They
expected the war would be ended IN
a short time. Some of this material
they 10 get liLO oViihoJ ~
way of Switzerland, Holland. Spain
and the Scandinavian states but the
vast bulk of it remained here in ware
houses until carrying charges became
bothersome and the possibility OF
America entering the war, in which
event the property would be confiscat-
ed, made it prudent to sell. The Ger
mas disposed of their holdings at a
handsome profit but now they u
buy many things and the prices they
must pay are appalling.
What Germany Must Import.
They require wool, cotton, betting,
packing, phosphates, hogs and hog
products, soaps, lubricants, clothing
shoes, agricultural machinery, rub
Der goods, metal goods, railroad, fur-
nishings. needles, threads, textiles or
every kind and character, feodstuffs
of every description, copper, spelter
and a. thousand other articles.
But real and artificial barriers make
Al very hard for them to buy from
ms or get goods delivered after they
buy. In the first place we have not
re-established u consular gencle
In Germany. The day after the Ger
man delegates signed the peace terms
British consuls were enroute to their
stations in Germany and British
houses were looking for German
trade. We have been a bit slow.
Even IL our consul5 had been on the
spot the financial handicaps were al
most p~rohibitive. Germany, it must be
understood, has dissipated on war not
only her income but her capital. To-
day the mark has only one-third of its
former value compared with our dol
lar. Therefore in the purchase OF
American goods the Germans +no
only must pay on the present basis
but give three times as much of their
money as would be necessary If the
mark-had its normal value.
Also, the more they purchase here
without. counterbalancing the account
by sales or by establishing a. credit.
the more they will debase the mark.
1T is to the interest of America to help
in rehabilitating Germany to a GER
tain extent. Germany cannot be ruin
ed industrially or commercially with
out lasting injury to the remainder OF
the world. Germany cannot pay her
debts to the allies unless h becomes
what is termed a going concern"
But, in aiding Germany, it is incum-
bent upon Americans not to go SO far
as to assist her SO she can re-estab-
fish the cartel system. The German
idea of world trade has been about
the same as what the Standard Oil
attitude was in relation to the oil BUSH
ness,
Germany Trying to Borrow of Us.
Germany is negotiating a loan in
this country. She will ave to pay
a stiff price for the accommodation but
there is little doubt of the flotation be-
ing a success. Men will subscribe who
hold Germany in contempt. They viii
lend aid because they konw it is nee
essary to supply the funds. Through
the money obtained in this manner
the raw and finished materials Ger
many must have will be furnished.
Through this loan the frightful ad-
verse state of German-American ex-
change will be modified a little.
But Germany will not buy beyond
her most imperative needs.
You MAJ expect a remarkable ship
ment of eggs to Germany. Normally
we shipped more eggs to Germany
than any other part of the world. Our
exports went to hundreds of millions
of dozens. The hen has become a
rare bird in Germany and the egg
well, a mar must be a millionaire to
afford an egg diet. OF the food stap-
les wheat, pork and pork products,
e butter, cotton seed oils will make
the principal items. The German
hungers for nothing as for eggs and
fats. We may know an increase in the