The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1919-04-13
CTR Ethrarial,'s Gnrurr
CONDUCTED BY
FRANK PARKER STOCKBRIDGE.
PREDICTIONS AND THE LIBRARY.

~ NE IN while human events occur ACCORDING
" to prearranged plan and things happen
Just as it was expected beforehand they would hap
pen The difficulty with most forecasts is not SO
much in prophesying what is going to happen as 1t
is in foretellng when it is going to happen and by
what means the event is going to be brought about
Nobody doubts for example, that peace treaties
will be signed by the various belligerent nations
as a result of the war, but when, and under what
conditions are points which one can get as many
different predictions as there are newspaper cor
respondents in Paris.
The most successful prophets of all time have
carefully avoided dates and details. The skilled
journeyman prophet may become SPECIFIC under
pressure in such matters, but if he really knows
his trade he allows himself margin OF safety Ike
the late Mother Shpton who, to be sure, predicted
that the world would come to an end in 1881, but
forestallcd any possible personal comeback when 1t
ddn by herself pradently departing this life IN
1861. T
Some Records.
Such reflections are the quite natural outcome
of an examination of old newspaper files. One does
not have to go very far back-a week or SO at the
most-to find examples of predictions that never
came true. Nor is the quite understandable human
tendency to particularze in prophesying failing
confined to the press of to-day One could take any
volume at random from that wonderfully complete
collection of American newspapers in the Library
of the American Antiquarian Society at Worcester,
or the hardly less comprehensive collection which
Mr. Bishop has gathered at Ann Arbor for the Uni
versty of Michigan and find any number of exam
pies Of predictions that fell short of genuine
prophecy merely because other writers had COM
mitted themselves too definitely on the points OF
time and method. In that interesting example of
pioneer Journalism, TIE Centinel Of the Northeast
Territory, printed in Cincinnati in 1898, finds
a detailed account, brought by sailing packet, over
land stage and river fatboat wireless, Of the
events of the French Revolution; events so stirring
as to betray the editor into the prediction that
five years there would not be king left upon y
throne i'll Europe! r''
The Libraries, of course, must supply their patrons
with The current works of prophecy, of which
the crop arising from the just ended is per-
haps greater, proportionately TO prcsent-day
printing facilities, than was that which followed
the French Revolution; but the real advantage of
the library the book shop is that it can also
provide its patrons with such notwithstanding liter
allure these ancient newspaper files and other
records of predictions that have not Yet true
There could be no better stabilzer of public
opinion than if everybody, after he has read his
morning paper, would drop in at the public library
and read the newspaper of hundred years ago
Did the black shadow of Bolshevism east its
gloom over your breakfast table? Turn back to the
English papers of one hundred and twenty five
years ago and observe there reflected the dread of
the English lest Communism should rear its hor-
rid head among. them. Has your perusa Of this
mornings editorials convinced you that the des-
TIMES Of the nation have fallen under the control
of incompetents and scoundresf Try reading the
dire predictions Of national ruin based upon pre-
eisey similar charges made against every Admins
tration in our history, beginning with Washing
ton And on the other hand If YOU think the i'm