New-York tribune., 1919-07-16
Mr.. Swanson Tries

The warmest admirer of Senator
Swanson, of Virginia, will scarcely con-
tend that he added much to the enlight-
enment of America and of the world
by the three hours of discourse he un-
loaded on the Senate. The track that
he trotted has many footprints; the
cart he dragged is loaded with familiar
stuff.
The Senator urges that if the pro-
posed reservations are included in the
resolution of ratification of the league
of nations covenant other nations party
this would compel the reassembling of
the conference, prolong negotiations and
postpone "peace."
That our allies have the power to re-
iect the agreement is, of course, to be
admitted. They may do as they please.
They may even change their minds on
all questions and refuse, with or with
out reason, to ratify anything. There
is no limitation on what an independent
nation may do. Indeed, after signing
the peace it is their legal privilege to
denounce the treaty and withdraw
from it.
But will the other nations do what
they have power to do? Senator Swan
son predicts that they will. How does
he know? He does not know and can
not know. Nobody knows, or can any
body know in any absolute sense. Even
though in the effort to help President
Wilson out of hole, as his friends in
timated he helped Lloyd George on the
indemnity matter, the foreign press
should begin to hint dark things if the
treaty be not bolted as an entirety
there would be no assurance that our for
eign friends really meant it.
We confront problem of probability !;
and probabilities, not certainties, must
be considered. What are the probabili-
ties and how is one to judge them?
An index of what a nation will do in
future case is furnished by what it
has done under like circumstances in the
past. Now, the record is that Europe
has never cavilled against American
reservations and treaties. Both Hague
conventions, the Algeciras convention.
the South African slave trade conven-
ton and many others have been ratified
| with reservations, with no objections
raised or new conference called.
Another way to Judge probabilities is
to examine where self-interest lodges.
What interest has Europe in reopening
negotiations? Would Germany ask for
resstablishment Of blockade? Would
Great Britain or France suspend mobili-
zation because we said we ratified but
did not wish to be understood as agree
ing to scrap the Monroe Doctrine, or
! promise to plunge into. every war, or to
stick in the league until permission was
given us to get out?
The Swanson prediction is absurd
/ Europe has less wish than we have
to hang up the peace. Indeed, to pro
vide against the possibility Of American
delay, the last article says that wher
Germany and three other principal pow
ers ratify the treaty goes into effect SC
far as the signers are concerned.
Having argued that the reservations
are SO important that Europe would
suspend peace rather than tactly con-
sent to them, Senator Swanson, with q
right-about-face, proves they are OF
consequence SO small that it is not worth
while to insert them-~that already they
are in the covenant.<
This now-yousee-it-and now YOU'D on't
method Of debate is firing. IT is toe
initiative Of the groundhog This inter
csting animal has two doors to his home
When an enemy opens and begins te
| bark and dig the nrudnnt 1.ranndh1.4