The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1919-04-28
INVESTMENT VIEWS
AND THE OUTLOOK
Market Letters Sound Note of
Caution Which Tempers
Bullish Spirit.
PUBLIC Is NOW THE GUIDE
Writers Admit Doubts as to
Future il Professionals
Be Not Leaders.

buying public has been inoculated DUR
Ing the last few weeks of unrliy spec
ulation still is showing itself in the
market letters issued at the close of
the week by various Stock Exchange
houses to their customers. As ever,
there Is note of caution which tenn
pers the bullish enthusiasm rampant in
all OF these communications, but each
week sees that element growing small
er and smaller in proportion, according
TO the general trend OF the letters. That
the public has taken the guiding Of the
market away from the professionals is
admitted almost unanimously, and
doubt of what the public may do with
its plaything Is equally widespread. as
evidenced by some OF the following ex-
cerpts from the letters:
E. w. Wagner & Co.: "A remarkable
feature OF the continuous bullish activity
on the Stock Exchange-we have had
twenty days OF million share sessions
eince the movement started-is the fact
that brokerage loans have not become
unduly extended. Loan totals are con-
slderably below the average usual at
this stage of a continuous forward move
ment This indicates that there has
been q great amount OF genuine invest
ment buying. Speculative commitments
have been exceptionally well protected
Little cognizsnce is taken Of dividend
reductions gloomy reports OF steel mill
operations being further reduced and the
piiing up of large quantities Of copper
metal. 1t Is pointed out that a leading
machinery manufacturing concern IL 60
ing right along with production and put
ting goods In storage. 1t seems to be
a foregone conclusion In the minds Of
our keenest business men that when the
new era of prosperity starts II will do
so with n rush. While we appear to
be favored with a most extraordinary
fundamental and technical situation for
q continuous rise In prices of leading
speculative securities, one should exer-
else discrimination in making purchases.
It seems the part Of wisdom to avoid
many OF the specialties that have had
spectacular advances in recent weeks,
We should he on the alert for any un-
expected bad news. The market In not
by any means shock proof"
Should Exercise Conservation.
A. A. Housman & CO.: Some of the
enormous surplus wealth of this country
Is being used in large proportions in in
vestment and speculation and. barring
decidedly unfavorable news develop
ments, the prices of securities are likely
TO continue to benefit thereby. Conser-
vatism should be exercised. as the larger
public participation has tended TO weak
IN the technical position of many of the
specialties which have had spectacular
rises. The thinness Of the market in
many directions emphasizes need for
caution. Those who will study values
stili have opportunities for profit II
they will temper with intelligent dis
erection desire to plunge into the
speculative Whirlpool
Shonnard, Mills & Co.: THE tech
meal position Of the market does not
seem to have been seriously impaired as
a result Of the current advance. There
have been reactions and there will con-
t!nue to be reactions. No bull market
can remain healthy very long without
them. Specialties have monopolized
speculative attention, but It looks as II
the time had come when Steel common
would reestablish its leadership. On
Wednesday Steel broke through its pre-
vious high for the year and now points
decidedly higher. Steel trade reports
continue gloomy and there may be some
basis for the belief that extra dividends
on Steel common will be omitted next
Tuesday. when the corporations finance
committee meets for dividend action.
but with prices Of steel commodities
abroad advancing and above parity.
compared with prices here, domestic
consumers. including the Railway Ad-
ninistration, cannot long remain aloof
from the market"
HAYDEN, Stone 4 Co: from a technical
market standpoint, the most encouraging
event of the week was new high price
on this movement for Steel common.
The figure reached this week is the
highest since last November. Undoubt-
eddy this anticipates an agreement be-
IA tri Ia
boards on the price level for steel. This
Is one OF the acts to which the market
has been steadily looking forward. 1t
would be important not only in the ma
terial improvement which II should
shortly bring about. but more for its
psychological effect No doubt II would
be shortly followed by an agreement on
the price of coal. 1t is truism that the
railroads as a group are much the larg-
est buyers of steel and coal. The orders
that they might he expected TO place as
soon as the price Is settled will be not
only OF importance in themselves, but
would unquestionably induce a far more
general buying by other consumers, who
have been waiting for this very thing.
1t would further have a reflex action on
the railroads themselves. in greatly in
ereasing the volume OF freight traffic.
Meantime tine process of readjustment to
normal conditions proceeds quietly but
steadily. 1t Is becoming more and more
obvious that there will not be a return
to pre-war prices before business is
again in full swing The continued
heavy volume OF transactions with a ten
dency toward higher prices indicates
that the advance OF the last two months
Is not mere fash in the pan, but con-
stltutes the earlier stages Of a major
movement. Despite the large advance
that has taken place many stocks are
selling for much less than the sums re-
invested in their properties during the
war. Until this mark is again reached
we do not believe there Is a necessity
for sounding serious note OF warning.
Public In Duying.
Goodbody 4 Co.-"Of course this bull
market will end some time and, not I'M
likely, 1t will have one or more savage
breaks before II ends. Possibly one may
come very soon, though We do not ex.
pect II for some weeks Because such
a market tends to perpetuate itself and
to proceed without reactions big enough
to dislodge the weak holders. II IL more
likely than Is the ordinary bull market
to reach a dangerously high point be.
fore 1t colapses. The public Is buyina
because business Ia improving rapidly
in many lines and there are now in THU
country more men with more money
than ever lived in any country"
McCiave 4 Co.--"There has been q
great deal of good logical reason fol
the direction which the recent bun mar
ket has taken and In many instances W,
beiieye Il will prove that the prices estab
tt.h "a raoeptlx will seem low In few