The St. Johns herald., 1919-02-06


 conference as to necessitate an entire alteration in the plans of price staDl- lization. The current peace talk has alarmed the holders of corn, and there has been a price decline of from 70. cents to 40 cents per bushel. The fact. that the accumulations of low priced corn in the Argentine and South Afr1- ca would, upon the advent of peace and liberated shipping, become availa- ble to the European market has ere ated a great deal of apprehension on the part of corn holders. This decline has spread fear among swine growers that a similar reduction in the prices of hogs would naturally follow. More over, the lower range of corn prices would, if incorporated in a 13-tO-1 ra- tio, obviously result in a continuously falling price for live hogs. In view of these changed conditions many swine producers anticipated lower prices and as a result rushed their hogs to market in large numbers, and this overshipment has added to and aggravated the decline.
 The information of the Department of Agriculture indicates that the SUD- ply of hogs has increased about s per cent, while the highest unofficial esti- mate does not exceed 15 per cent in- creased production over last year. On the other hand, the arrival of hogs during the last three weeks in the seven great markets has been v per cent more than last year, during the corresponding period, demonstrating the unusually heavy marketing of the available supply. In the face Of the excessive receipts some packers have not maintained the price agreed last month. On the other hand, many of the packers have paid over the price offered to them in an endeavor to maintain the agreed price. The re- suit in any event has been a failure to maintain the October price basis determined upon at the September con- terence and undertaken by the pack CTS. Another factor contributing to the break in prices during the month has been the influenza epidemic; it has sharply curtailed consumption of pork products and temporarily de creased the labor staff of the packers about 9 per cent.
 The exports of 13O,OOO,OO0 pounds of pork products for October com pared with about 52,OOO,O00 pounds in October a year ago, and the export orders placeable by the Food Administration for November, amount to 17O,OOO,OOO pounds as contrast ed with the lesser exports of 9SOOOOOO for November, 1917. The increased demands of the allies are continuing, and are in themselves proof of the necessity for the large production for which the Food Admin istration asked. The increase in ex- port demands appears to be amply sufficient to take up the increase ln hog product Jn, but unfavorable mar ket conditions existing in October af- ford no fair index of the aggregate supply and demand.
 It must be evident that the enor- mons shortage in fats in the Central Empires and neutral countries would Immediately upon peace result In ad- ditionaI demands for pork products which, on top of the heavy shipments to the Allies, would tend materially to increase the American exports, in- asmuch as no considerable reservoir of supDIies exists outside of the United States. It seems probable that the present prospective supplies would be inade1uate to meet this world demand with the return to peace. So far as It is possible to interpret this fact, 1t ap- pears that there should be even stronger demand for pork products after the war, and therefore any alarm of hog producers as to the effect of peace is unwarranted by the outlook.
 In the light of these circumstances 1t is the conclusion of the conference that attempts to hold the price of hogs to the price of corn may work out to the disadvantage of pork producers. It is the conclusion that any interpre- tation of the formula should be a broad gauged policy applied over a long period. It is the opinion of the conference that in substitution of the previous plans of stabilization the Live Stock Subcommittee of the Agri- cultural Advisory Board, together with the specially invited swine representa- lives, should accept the invitation of the Food Administration to join with the Administration and the packers in determining the prices at which con- trolled export orders are to be placed. E,o dOpo {n-