New-York tribune., 1919-03-28

four points in special issues. Most
OF the days news was favorable,
yet when the Inspiration Copper
dividend was cut from an So to
Sc annual basis that stock ad-
vanced, too. The market for the
past few days has been rejecting
more of its own technical position
than the news. Some commenta-
tors had thought it significant that
when prices declined on Wedncs-
day the market should be dull. But
when they advanced yesterday the
market was even duller.
While Judge Gary's statement
on the beneficial effects of the re-
cent price cutting bulkcd large in
its influence on prices, most of the
good news of the day concerned the
railroads. The first loans to rail
roads on the security of certificates
Of Indebtedness had been made by
the War Finance Corporation. Di-
rector General Hines would Garry
forward just as much additions
and betterment and maintenance
work as possible" The Director
General also explained the meaning
of the $75O,O0O,000 requested ap-
preparation. 1t was not needed. as
commonly supposed, to make up
for losses sustained by the railroad
administration. It's purpose was to
lend money for betterments to the
railroads until they were in a posi-
ton to repay it. When this $780,
100000 is appropriated it will make
an entire appropriation Of 81 $780,
100000, out of which only $780,
100000 represents the loss incurred
in the calendar year Of 1918. This
was due to an abnormal winter,
and the fact that the railroad ad-
ministration had only six months
of increased rates to meet twelve
months of increased wages. The
remainder was only temporarily
tied up. The disturbing news of
the day was the further dcmorali-
zation of British, French and Ital-
ian exchanges.
"1n the confusion existing be-
tween the threatened Generalization
of the export trade and the promise
of increased domestic trade activi-
ties as the result of the cut in Steel
prices" remarks the letter of a
prominent brokerage house, 1--WE
think it will be found profitable to
let the market be our guide. Indi-
vidual judgment attempting to in
terpret world-W movements of
trade and finance is usually fallible
Therefore the best judge is the mar
ket itself, which represents the ag-
gregate of all individuals judgment,
locking as far ahead as it is hu-
manly possible to see and discount
conditions as it finds them"
That is a thought frequently ut
tered in Wall Street. But does Wall
Street really believe it? Certainly
the market is not infallible. If all
individuals make mistake, the re-
suit is that the market makes a
mistake. The market reflects aver
age opinion, not the best opinion.
The very fact that it moves at all
shows that it is not nfallible-evcry
movement either up or down is a re-
Election on the preceding level. The
aim of the individual is not to wait
for the judgment of the market on
any event, but to anticipate it. The
men whose judgment is better than
that represented by the market are
those who buy before prices start
to move up or sell before they start
to move down. They are the men
who make the profits In fact, every
trader in practice disbelieves this
conception Of the market which he
may maintain in theory. Every spec
ulative purchase or sale Of stock
is an attempt to beat the market; it
registers the opinion that the pres
ent level of prices is wrong, and
ought to be higher or lower. The
individual in his vanity and egotism
thinks to pit his wisdom against the
combined wisdom of all others. And
half the time the individual proves
to be right. For the combined wis
dom may be often merely the COM
bined ignorance. The business man
may be guided in his judgment of
affairs by the Interpretation of the
marketplace. The speculator can
not be. He must think for himself.
Several steel concerns in the
West and Middle West, upon re-
Gently receiving inquiries for steel
for export, made answer that they
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