The Birmingham age-herald., 1919-04-06

q. s. A., on war purposes reaches the stupendous figure of nearly two hundred and forty billion dollars. (In francs. the amount is too enormous for the brain to take tn.) Though this estimate may pos- sibiy be somewhat inflated vet there seems little reason to doubt that the figure is gigantic one. British ex" perts assess Great Britains share alone at S40OM,OOO'0OO Clearly. Germany cant not pay this sum off within any reason| able time; the most that the allies can exl pect is to obtain dividend thereon.
 Various attempts have been made td assess the extent to which Germany can, without being forced into the gulfs of bankruptcy and bolshevism, contribute to repair the harm she has done and it seems probable that the outside sum that she can pay annually is G6O0, ,000, ,0OG (SSOOO,O00,0 ,000 approximately This calcula! ton is based on the fact that the pre- war savings of Germany were estimated at S2.O00O00,O00 annually. Her military expenditure will be compulsorily reduced by another s50O000000 a year and the pres sure of obligatory economy may be eX- pected to bring in yet another $500 000, GOO per annum. The bulk of this money will have 10 be levied upon by taxation from the German people. Some part of it will without doubt be taken in mercantile shipping and in raw material, the estima- ted value of the German colonies will go to make up part of the sum; Ger many's hoarded gold and foreign securi- ties will be transferred to the credit of the allies. and it may even be necessary for her to dispose of her works of art to the highest bidder.
 The sums obtained in this way will, however, be but a drop in the ocean. and for the most part this money will have to be obtained by direct or indirect tax ation from the German citizen and will be paid by him in the currency of his country, that is to say. in marks
 The fact that this is the case forms a considerable Embarrassment to allied financiers for unless German trade is re- established the mark is Valueess. YoL cannot rebuild a ruined French factory or equip a Serbian farmer with a new plough and pay for it in marks unless either the plough is of German make and the factory rebuilt with German bricks, or unless the German by export ing other goods has established a credit in the currency of the country where the plough and the bricks are made. Therefore it would seem that if the allies wish to recover any substantial part of the cost of the war, they must encour- age the revival of German industry, must help to provide Germany with raw material and must be prepared to see Ger many buying and selling freely with the whole world.
 But if they do this they are encourag- ing the revival of a formidable trade com petitor and thereby prejudicing their own industrial position. The German business man has always been a danger ous commercial rival and in postwar trade he will curiously enough derive considerable assistance from the fact that his own currency has become so seriously appreciated.
 Before the war, an English sovereign would exchange for 20 German marks. Now, in spite of the fact that the sover- eign has itself fallen in valus as com pared with the dollar, it is equal to at least 30 marks.
 This fact will initiate against the Ger man manufacturer when he has to buy raw material outside Germany, but in all purchases inside Germahy and in all payments made for labor it will confer on him an enormous advantage. Every experienced industrialist knows that the prime factor in the cost of production of manufactured articles is the cost of labor. and if in exchange for a dollars worth of goods sent to the United States of Amer. ica the German manufactures receive not marks as he did before the war; but or even marks, as he will now, he will be able to undersell the British or American manufacturer in all neutral markets. Te depreciation of the mark virtually confers bonus on the German exporter.
 Can this difficulty be surmounted?
 An English member of Parliament who is well versed in economic questions has made suggestion which may help to meet it. He considers that the allies should decide at Paris to impose an eX port duty on all German goods ex-