Evening star., 1919-04-30
BY FRANK H. sIMONDs.

b1 FhANh H. SlMONDS.
PARIS. April 2s.-with the Germans
on the way to Paris events of the last
few days have raised three questions.
no one Of which can be answered at
the present hour. These questions
are:
1. Will the Germans sign the treaty
to be presented to them?
1. 2. VIII -thS Italians returR to the con.
ference and sign, granted the Ger
mans sign? -.
3. Will the French and British sign,
provided the Italians refuse? s :siss
To discuss the questions in order. It
is patent that the temporary with
drawal Of the Italians has weakened
the position of the entente at criti-
cal hour. Germany comes to Versailles
to face, not g. united and victorious
ished by. the secession, at least mo-
mentarily, of one of its constituent
parts. The character of the incident
which precipitated the Italian with
drawal will lend infinite opportunity
to the German representatives to
make capital at home and in Paris.
II Germany signs now, she will con.
sent to the loss of at least $4,000
square miles of territory and 8.oo0.0o0
of people together with the loss OF
vast sums of money. now and in the
future. The government which signs
such a treaty will! presently be
doomed. Reaction will surrender to
bolshevism. and bolshevism will pre-
vail and set up a new rule. Germany
will face new revolution and ultimate
chaos.
If Germany Refuses to Sign.
But if Germany refuses to sign,
using Mr.. Wilson's fourteen points as
a basis for her refusal. and turning
the Fiume incident to her own adyan-
tage, the allies will be faced either
with making new sacrifices to Ger
many, reducing their terms. or en-
barking upon new expedition into
Germany-an occupation which will
save Germany from anarchy. but re-,
with possibly extended occupation Of
Germany from anarchy. but re-
suit in no small protest in Britain,
France and the United States. And
there is SO far lacking any proof of
sufficient courage in Paris to meet
German defiance with prompt and ef-
fective intervention. >,,2....-s S.
On the other hand, many-well in
formed Frenchmen believe Germany
will sign, because signing is easy, and
tuciI, dS III Iuc case Ol IH6 dImlSIlCC,
refuse to fulfill the terms, a, process
which would again call for the exer-
else of force, this time when allied
rehabilitation had gone still further
and allied public opinion would even
moro generally react against military
operations.
In sum, opinions differ; a majority,
I am sure, believe Germany will not
sign unless the whole treaty terms
are radically modified and the last
semblance Of victory taken from
those who bore the burden of the
struggle.
Italy in Turmoil.
AS to the Italian course, it is clear
that Italy is in the throes of a ma
tionalistic explosion which would
make it unsafe for any Italian states
man to surrender. The Presidents
position in the matter of Fiume has
the approval of the fair and right
minded Europeans as question Of
abstract justice. Italy, on the con-
trary, has enormous sympathy grow
ing out Of ever-mounting resentment
at American interference in purely
European questions, and the die
tatorial tone that accompanies our
interference.
I am told the President would choose
to return to America rather than sur
render in the Adriatic matter. But I
am equally clearly advised. even. by
Americans in touch with the admins
tration, that it is becoming clearer
and clearer that there Is small pros
pect that Italy will: :Fecede from her
position.
If she refuses to recede. she hardly
can be expected to sign the treaty
with Germany, which carries the re-
alization of at least q portion Of
French and British demands. and
leaves her Adriatic demands pending.
II Italy refuses to sign. she has power
to invoke treaty, made with her
European allies-not secret, but
public treaty by which Britain, France
and Italy agreed not to make a sepa-
rate peace with Germany.
Doubt About France and England.
rhia IN isaa the fna, question. II