New-York tribune., 1919-04-30
The Tribune's Page Of Business News
Little Chance
OF Lower Linen
Prices This Year
Worldwide Shortage of Raw
Products and High Labor
Cost Make Reduction in
Quotations Seem Remote


The folloUing statement of conditions
anu prospects, IN The linen trade tras
prepared for The Tribune tv one Of
Amsriea's fsdding authorities. .~=Busiusss
Neps Editor.
The situation now obtaining ia the
linen trade Is without parallel
During the period OF the var gov
eminent demands for all classes of
linen goods, but particularly for aero
plane linen, were such that oompara-
lively little yarn was available for
civilian requirements in fact, toward
the end of the war no linen goods
OF any consequence were being manu-
factured for ordinary purposes. One
of the results is that surplus stocks
in the hanos of manufacturers and
merchants generally have been greatly
depleted and in many Instances totally
exhausted.
This condition has been accentu-
ated by the state of affairs in Russia
AS is we'll known Russia formerly sup
Piled by far the greatest part Of the
worlds raw material, growing yearly
an average of 100000 tons For q con-
siderable time satisfactory supplies
from this source have not been avail
able and what may be expected from
now on is very problematical. 1t is
extremely difficult to get any accurate
idea as to what is going on in that
disturbed country. but there seems to
be good authority for the statement
that only about A per cent of her pro-
duction will be available for export
from last years crop, and it is feared
that the quantity available from this
years crop will be even less.
Russian Situation
At all events, if Russia is on the
verge of starvation, as we are in
formed she is, it seems fair to assume
that If she is not growing wheat and
corn and other cereals in sufficient
abundance she is certainly not grow
ing very much flax. There is tenure
neither Of life nor property in Russia
to-day. The peasant and farmer who
sows has no certainty that he will
reap, and without a reasonable assur-
ance OF reward will not, naturally
enough, engage in more work than he
This may not be true of all Of Russia,
but it is unfortunately very true Of n
large pnrt OF it.
1t would be futile to speculate az to
the length Of time it may take to bring
Russian affairs out Of the chaos in
which they are plunged. Political and
industrial security cannot be built up
over night, and we are afraid we can
not look in our trade for anything APP
preaching pre-war conditions for some
years to come,
Among the other PRINCIPAL fax grow
ing countries are Austria Hungary,
with an acreage yielding about $4,000
tons; Germany yielding about 10000 to
% 900 tons and Belgium, according to
the last reports, less than 10000 tons
While the first two mentioned may
still be cultivating on an extensive
scale, yet there is no reason to believe
that their output will for the present
be of any material assistance to others
than them selves. During the war their
surplus stocks hav also been wiped out,
and even assuming that their mills are
already in operation, they must not
alone be faced with the same shortage
of raw material that confronts us, but
their own domestic requirements, which
have been held in check for four years,
must now be met.
Belgium need hardly be looked to for
at least two or three years. This sure
ly requires no demonstration.
Encouraging Production
In an effort to obtain the necessary
supplies the British government has
done everything possible during the
last two years to encourage q larger
cultivation of flax in Ireland. One of
the necessary means adopted was to
guarantee prices to the Irish farmer
Last year these prices were as high as
800 pounds sterling per ton, easily six
times the normal price, and this year
prices range from about 240 to 800
pounds sterling Most unfortunately
and principally because Of bad weather
conditions. the 1913 Irish crop Is about
one-third lcee than was originally an
ticipated.
Whan to the great shortngc Of raw
material already Indicated there Ia
added the vnstly increased cost Of all
understand that the likelihood Of
lower prices for linen for some time
to come is not promising, and the
causes are altogether beyond the con
troll of spinner, manufactures or mer-
chant. The worlds stock Of linen
goods was probably never so low and
it is expected that such demand as
there is will be fully sufficient to take
care Of the available supply.
The foregoing gives you the general
facts. There is one other point, how
ever, that ! might mention-that is
that the spinners have fixed their
prices up to September 0, and goods
bought and manufactured at those
prices could not possibly come into
the market until the end Of this year
or beginning of the next. With the
prices of raw flax guaranteed to the
farmer by the government the spin
ners really must get the prices they
have named in order to show a profit
at all. If there is no business they will
simply have to close down, as indeed
they have already done to some OK
tent. The manufacturers have already
arranged to work only "a hours per
week.
On the whole, therefore, it is fair
to assume that there can be no ap
preciable reduction in prices generally
for at least year. and it also follows
therefore, that those who need stuff,
even though they do purchase con-
servatively, and from hand to mouth,
can buy with fair degree Of conf
dence.