New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1919-02-01
Washington Should Worry

the present unemployment CRISIS. four
years of war prosperity make us forget
that unemployment was a more or less
normal state of the world in peace times.
Four years of practically no immigration
and the present absolute uncertainty as
to what European labor will do under the
vastly changed conditions across the At
lantic upset any sort of calculations ON
the future. But a few things are certain.
We have million and half men out
of work. In peace times, Secretary Will
son assures us, there were always a
million men out Of work. In times of
stagnation three or four millions were
unemployed.
Before the war immigration added i'm
mensely to the labor pool. A million two
hundred thousand aliens came in yearly,
while only 100000 departed, leaving a
net gain of 100000 potential workers
each year. FigNred at this rate, the four
years of halted immigration leave the
country 100000 short of its normal
growth in population. Add to this the
100000 drafted men and the half
million who have gone into shipbuilding.
Even if 100000 OF these are demobilized
this year the remainder, with the loss
from the stoppage of immigration, will
leave the country with a labor shortage
of 4,700,O00 compared to what normal
conditions would have been.
But life is not all statistics, and a
country that shows a theoretical shortage
of labor can actually produce a glut.
More, that glut can have as dangerous
social effects. It looms huge. 1t carries
tremendous emotional possibilities. SINH
1arly the problems of the cost of labor
and material and their reimbursement
have crippled American industry, not
because they are insurmountable but be-
cause the end of the gigantic war leaves
business psychologically cup in the air"
1t is no easy thing to risk commercial
suicide by plunging into peace production
on war terms. The normal business man
is wondering if his competitor won't wait
for liquidation of labor and material
costs, and then undersell him in the same
market.
2 All of which points to the vital part
that government might have played, and
should have played, in building up COM
mercial confidence, in nstilling initiative
into industry and energizing the whole
commercial brain of the country. Presi-
dent Wilson went off to Europe leaving
reconstruction up to Congress. On Jan
uary 80, 1919, almost three months after
the armistice, the Senate at last took the
first step toward heartening business and
releasing tied-up capital by the validet-
ing of the settlement of informal war
contracts aggregating billion dollars.
Three months after the end of the war
Congress may be passing the Kenyon bill
for the use of 100000, 600 on public i'm
provements. Three months after the,end
Of the war Secretary Wilson sets March
as the last date--and it looks like the
first date, too--for legislation against
unemployment. More serious still, we
are now learning that the railroad ad-
ninistration has definitely cut construc-
ton work to the bone-just when it could
\ play the needed part in restoring indus
u trial morale and starting business on a
sharp upgrade. A trunk line out of
New York which had 100000 900 of nee
cssary and deferred construction work
scheduled will have to be content with
100000 worth.
Washington knew that the most ire
mendous war in history was over. Wash
ington knew that the future of industry
was Understandable. Washington knew
that, left to itself, industry might pick
up and it might not. Washington knew
that merely normal conditions of unem~
ployment we're serious enough and that
the huge complication Of the war would
call for every effort Of sanity and reason
TO guard against disaster. Washington
knew that it would have a certain leeway
of time in which to work. And Wash
Ington sat back and waited for that time
70 pass. Now ii may succeed in doing
omcthing-now that the expected has
appened, But what It can do for the
prlng, when outdoor construction will
lex up Of Itself and stimulate all indus
r. ~, will have no bearing on the troubles