The Washington herald., 1919-03-06
PREDICTS BOOM
FOR U. S. TRADE
Holland Refers to Secre-
tay Red6eld's Report as
Indicating Progress.

a blue Monday in the securities mar
ket and IL many persons find them
selves beset with anxiety lest we are
to pass through a prolonged period or
business lethargy, a glance at the ns-
ures which Secretary Redfeld has
caused his Department OF Commerce
TO make public will. II Is said, IN
stantly dispeI gloom and put an end
TO anxiety. The figures OF them
selves are so enormous as almost TO
stagger the ina gination. Certainly
they would staEger IL il we were not
accustomed by this time to think in
terms OF billions. As recently as five
years ago the balance of trade in
favor Of the United States for the Ms
cal year was N7o.ooo.0oo That was
then spoken Of as being a gratifying
indication OF our International trade
relations. II was almost. II not quite,
equal to the money value Of our ex-
ports of cotton. The probability Us
that much the greater part of IL was
lost to US because we had to pay to
Europe large interest charges upon
our debt established there. We also
were charged high rites for insur-
ance and about as high rates for
freight as the commerce would bear.
In addition, our banks were furnish
ing travellers with letters of credit,
the aggregate Of which was presumed
to be not less than slOo.Oo0,O00.
Now in a single month of January,
1919, our excess Of exports over i'm
ports was s41O.ooO. Ooe; I'm other words,
I'm a single month the balance in in
/ternational trade in our favor was
only 100000 less than the entire
balance Of trade for the fiscal year
which ended June 30. 1914
Proof of Industry.
Behind these figures stands the
proof OF continued national industry.
Not yet has Secretary Redfeld been
able in detail to report the various
items Of our January exports. which.
in the aggregate amount, measured
by money. to So, o.000.
Undoubtedly foodstufrs of all kinds
explain considerably more than half
OF these exports. But we have been
selling machinery. tools. agricultural
implements. electrical apparatus and
various commodities that are needful
in times of peace. II. therefore. we
are able to export commodities of the
money value OF s62S, 900 900 in a single
month, with the chances that for
many months the average of exports
will be approximately as high and
may be greater then there is no rea-
son for apprehension that our manu-
featuring plants will he compelled
either to shut down entirely or great
ly curtail their output.
Furthermore. these reports Indicate
that there will not be much delay in
finding employment for the soldiers
because the mills. the Improvement
OF railroads and in the spring. sum-
mer and early fall the agricultural
sections viii be seeking employees
and not turning men away.
II we look forward to June so
OF this year and base an estimate,
part OF which is reliable because
authentic figures can be obtained
from the Department of Commence.
then IL reasonable to presume
that the money value of our ex-
ports for the entire fiscal year will
be considerably in excess of $1,000
O60.Gco. Furthermore. il our IMPORTS
are maintained for the remaining
fve months OF the fiscal year at
the rate which has characterized
the imports for the first seven
months. then the total Of our i'm
ports measured by money should
be apDroXima teIy S25rOOOOoOO. The
will serve the purpose for which it
is made. For it makes it reason
able to surmise that the favorable
balance OF +~ade for the twelve
months ending June 30 will be be-
tween SI.0OO.C0o COO and 5000. 900, 600
Moreover il will not be greatly
DIMINISHED by the so-called inyisi-
Bile items. such as money paid on
account of our debts to European
investors. That debt has been al
most eXtinguished il not quite
No great amount OF money will
he placed in letters OF credit.
Some months. perhaps some years.
will pass before Americans in their
summer excursions to Europe ex-
pend as much as 100000. 900.
Therefore almost all Of this excess
in our export trade over our i'm
port will represent the actual bal
sncc in our favor. 1t will be bill
lions. No wonder that Mr.. Nor
gan and his associates have nego-
tiated with Great Britain for the
conversion Of short time notes into
long bonds which will remain per-
manently in the United States. 1t
is easy to understand why Belgium
has obtained one credit OF $50. .0OO. 900
and is to obtain another as well
"a one from Canada. The reasons
are excellent. for they are based
upon Secretary Redfeld's report Of
our international commerce and
they show why his associate in the
Cabinet, Secretary Glass, speaks
frankly OF the need of expending
large credits to Europe, hoping that
Congress will be Influenced by his
statement.
Nations Msst Pay.
For this unparalleled excess in the
money value OF our exports over
that of our imports demonstrates
that in some way or other the ma
tions that are buying of US will
Lave 90 find the means to pay or
else they must quit buying.
The United States is in position
to lend them the aid which they
need. And IL that be- done then
our manufacturers, our industries
Of all kinds, and our farmers may
rest assured that for a long time
to come the nations across the sea
in South America, and especially
Canada. will be in the American
markets for the purchase of COM
modities OF all kinds. 1t is deem
ed good policy in private business
as well as in national business to
aid with credit customers whose
character is beyond impeachment
and that is what the United States
is to do. HOLLAND.
pAI TIMnpc rparu a