Evening star., 1919-11-30
TRADE CONDITIONS
AND TREATY DEFEAT
Boston Bank Holds That Too
Serious View Has Been
Taken.
From December Circular of American Exchange
Bank Of Boston.

From December Circular of American Exchange
Bank Of Boston.
Out of the wrangle over the treaty
If peace the specter Of the Economic
League and various other disturbing
.eminders Of the past rise up to ask
questions as to the future of our trade
citations with the allied countries.
The treaty has not been finally re-
iected, nevertheless it seems that it
will not be adopted in form that
will wholly meet the expectations OF
the entente, even If compromise is
inally reached.
However that may turn out, We can
.ery easily take far too serious view
IF the situation that has been created.
fortunately. as it now seems. our
rade with the allied countries had al
eady reached the point at which radi-
al changes were called for.
The situation. therefore, has already
1een fully presented to us, SO it is
iifficult to see any immediate detri-
nent to trade that win ensue from
he rejection Of the treaty. Our prob
lem of restoring the ,fade balances. il
we propose to continue our trade with
the allies, was already acute. In: facL
It was coming to be recognized rather
generally that we could not expect In
any event to keep pouring goods into
the allied countries without some ade-
auate provision for payment.
Further. it was coming to be recog
nized that there was probably no
present adequate solution of stabilIz-
ing the exchanges.
The allied countries. or Great Brit
ain, at any rate according to the
American Chamber of Commerce al
London, cannot be expected to pro-
iuce goods that would find market
in this country in quantities sufficient
to Offset even their most necessary
purchases in this country
May Reach Equilibrium.
AS long as we remain prosperous
and able to consume luxury goods. II
will be just possible to reach some
thing like equilibrium in our trade
with France and possibly with some
Of the other countries. The only thing
we have to fear. therefore, from a
revival of Imperial preferences and
the economic league, the two re-
construction programs devised Dy the
allies, is the possible effect OF such
revival upon our trade with the COZ
onies of these countries.
restrictions were thrown about our
trade in several quarters even before
it was known what the Senate Would
do with the treaty. These restrictions
were removed when attention was
called to them without formal protest
and it is possible that some of them
NAV be revived In that event recipro-
cal measures will undoubtedly afford
our trade ample protection against un-
Just discrimination. We are still the
major factor in the cotton supply OF
the world and are principal producers
in a number of other fields.
Not as Serious as 1t Appears.
The situation, however. is hardly as
serious as that. England and France
and the other allied as well as neutral
countries of Europe are exerting every
power they can command toward eco
nomic self sufficiency. but it will be
number of years before they can free
themselves entirely from our support
league or no league. They are max
ing rapid strides. A few months ago it
was asserted by competent opinion
that the three principal allied coun-
tries were on the verge of bolShevism.
Recently Clemenceau defeated the So
cialists in France: the Italian govern
ment did the same thing in Italy, and
England passed with success through
a labor crisis of unusual importance.
Instead Of bolshevism. it appears that
Europe is on the verge of political
reaction that may take it in just the
opposite direction. The 'junkers" in
Germany propose, it is said to estab-
lish a constitutional monarchy in
Prussia in lieu of the socialistic gov
ernment set up by the revolution.