The Washington herald., 1919-03-30

Japanese hegemony Of the Eastern
seas give way to japanese monopoly
of such trade as Japan desires to
control. Such is the Chinese view
of the situation Japan desires to
bring about.
There are two strong parties in
japan with divergent views on
world policy. These parties may
fairly be called the peace party and
the war party. The war party prob
ably does not consciously desire war
with any other frst-class power.
but its policies and methods are
such as to make war inevitable. The
dangerous tactics IT has already
adopted in Asia and desires to pur-
sue further will be indicated below.
The rival party. the peace party,
now controls Japan and seeks to
gain by time and diplomacy what
the more impatient militarists un-
der Gen. Takishima desire to grab
at once by force in disregard of
possible consequences.
Always Feared Russia.
From my highly-p placed informant /
have obtained what he states is the
view of the Japanese government re-
garding the present international po-
sition and policy of Japan. Until
within the past two years. the two
great power. Japan had TO consider
as real or prospective competitors for
the mastery of the Pacific and East
ern Asia were Russia and the United
States. With Russia Japan thought
It necessary to fight. in 1904. to pre-
vent her economic strangulation. The
result was the destruction of Rus
sian sea power in the East and the
passing of Manchuria and Korea. one
under Japanese influence and the
other under the scepter Of the Mfkado.
The United States, in japanese eyes,
had been less to be feared than Rus
sia. America was far of and Pacific,
Russia imperialist and near at hand.
America had no army. and her feet.
though slightly stronger than Japan's.
was not thought powerful enough to
voyage to the Pacific. seek out and
destroy Japan's navy on a battle
ground of Japan's choosing. In the
military sense. then. there was little
to apprehend from America. The Jap
anese policy was to insure herself
against any possible threats from
across the Pacific by the Anglo-Japa-
nese alliance, and meanwhile for
economic and cultural reasons culti-
vate as friendly relations as possible
with the American republic, postpon-
ing until a more favorable opportun-
ity an overt attempt to seize the East
ern markets and freeze out Western
competition.
Balance of Power Changed.
Not even the European war. for
nearly three years. changed the bal
ance of power in the East, excepting
by the marked weakening OF Russian
strength and prestige. due to the pro-
longed strain on the Cars Empire.
caused by the struggle with Germany.
America gained enormously in eco
nomic strength, but remained a nom
military nation. The war party in ia
pan. led by Gen. Takishima and the
heads of the War and Navy Depart
ments. became continually stronger in
1915. 1916 and 1917, their argument be-
ing that Germany would win. that
Russia was hopelessly crippled. that
America could not intervene, and that
Japan should go into China and take
what she wanted.
The peace party counselled modera-
ton, and adopted a waiting policy.
The militarist chiefs succeeded in en-
forcing certain demands upon China,
and vainly attempted to compel Pc
king to swallow others that would
have had the effect of reducing China
to the status of Japanese protecto-
rate. That these latter were with
drawn was due not so much to Chi
mas resistance or the protests OF
American and British diplomats as to
the moderates in the Toxic Cabinet
whose motto was and is the Oriental
equivalent of "All things come round
to him who will but wait"
Russia Dropped Out.
Then occurred the entry OF America
into the war, followed within a few
months by the Bolshevik revolution
and the inauguration of anarchy in
what had been the Russian Empire
These two events. to an extent not
yet clearly recognized in the West,
completely revolutionized the interna-
tional position OF Japan.
OF the two great powers upon
which Japan's interests compelled
her to keep an eve, one was swept
out of existence. Japan always took
Russia much more seriously than
America as a possible foe, and Rus
sia was no more. Whether Japan's
ambitions on the mainland were mere
ly economic, or territorial as well.
there no longer remained in Asia
any force capable of challenging the
fat of the Mikado. Not only Man
churia and China, but the boundless
resources of Siberia, the worlds
greatest storehouse of those raw ma
terials that Japan so sorely lacks.
were there for the taking. Asssiled
by such a temptation, egged on by
the war party. the great commercial
and banking interests which control
led and still sway the foreign policy
of their country displayed admlra-
BILE moderation. and Japan, suspt-
ciously watched through 1918 by the
Western powers engaged In a death
grapple with Germany and helpless
to intervene, maintained on the whole
loyalty to her engagements and a
disposition to wait and see before
acting.
Saw Americas Power.
But as the months went on Japan.
which had watched her former en-
emy to the Westward perish. saw
to the East the American Republic
rapidly becoming the greatest mill
tary power in the world. Naval plans
on a scale Japan could not hope to
initiate: a merchant marine of pro-
portions unthought-of; millions of
trained soldiers and mountains of war
material that could be called upon
in any future strife completely upset
the theories of those Oriental states
men who had held that America
could be disregarded in settlement
of the Chinese question.
Instead of being between a mighty
Russia and a weak America Japan
now finds a vacuum where Russia