The sun., 1919-05-03
SAYS GERMANY WILL
MEET PEACE TERMS
Vernon L. Kellogg Believes
Ebert Government Will Sur
vive to Ratify Treaty.
FOOD THE GREAT LEVER
Ability to Pay Depends Upon
Gradual Development Of
Economic Conditions.


Count Won Brockdorff- Rantzau SHOOK |
with emotion" at Versailles on Thursday !
because he and the entire German Govern |
,rnent realizes that 1t will be touch and go
ito preserve any considerable form of gov
iernment In Germany such as their own. |
1f the peace treaty Is signed--and they
can see no alternative but to sign. This
is the opinion OF the political situation
across the Rhine outlined by Vernon L. |
Kellogg OF the American Relief Admin |
fstration. who returned to New York on
the Nieuw Amsterdam yesterday after
spending most Of his time since the sign
Ing Of the armistice in Germany, Aus
tria Poland. Italy and the Balkans
Not only will the Germans sign the
peace treaty, in the opinion of Mr.. KEEL
logg, but the Government will succeed in
maintaining Itself. despite the never to
be underestimate menace OF Bolshevism
%; total disorganization under any of a
half dozen names which has converted
the flaming sword" of other days into
Teuton sword OF Dainocles.
Mr.. Kellogg. with DR.. Alonzo e. Tay-
Tor, has subpitted to Herbert Hoover a
preliminary report on the conditions
which they found in Germany. He made
this report public here yesterday and
discussed with reporters his experiences
and his opinions. The report constitutes
the basis upon which was framed the
programme by which the Allies and tn.
United States under Mr.. Hoovers direc-
ton are selling to Germany enough
food TO keep the population from despair
and thus hold conditions no less stable
than at present.
Points of kellogg Report.
lt q
represents the most comprehensive sur
vey OF enemy political. economic and
military conditions which has yet been
available to the American public. There
Is reason to believe that 1t has been ac-
cepted In more than its economic as
poets at the Quai d'orsay. and that the
peace treaty soon to be made public will
be nodded to large extent on this esti-
mate of the situation
These are the cardinal points of Mr..
kellogg's sketch
!. Miitarily Germany is wholly I'M
able to ofer any opposition, despite
the fact that II Is popular opinion in
Germany that her appeal for an armis-
tice was not a military defeat
2 Politically the Ebert Government.
represented by the Versailles pleni-
potentiaries, Is a compromise between
the irreconcilable violents of the Ex-
IRENE Left and the only possible
method of conducting Government
business-more or less through the
hated functionaries OF the old regime.
1t has not fulfilled the sociatistic and
syndicalist aspirations of the revoIu-
ton. IL it signs a humliating peace
its enemies may succeed in its over
throw on that excuse. II It Is over
thrown only chaos will result
.. Germany's ability to live up TO
the peace conditions. particularly with
regard to payments. depends upon her
economic resuscitation. and all that
possibly can be done in this regard
need not be feared as placing Germany
In position to compete industriaIly
with the rest OF the world. Such COM
petition will be impossible for years
to come.
4. In the face of Its problems the
Ebert Government embraces the most
able and level headed men In Ger
many, for whom everything depends
upon their ability to retain the control
of the Government. They have re-
Trained carefully from arousing the
German people or rallying them about
any catch phrase that might interfere
with final acceptance Of almost any
terms the victors impose. They will
make every effort to have these terms
accepted.
Relief Programme Outlined.
Upon all OF which Mr.. Kellogg bases
his opinion that the peace treaty will be
signed and that the German Government
VIII survive to carry 1t out. To help in this
end the Peace Conference has adopted
upon his recommendation the pro-
gramme for sending to Germany
monthly 100000 tons of wheat, In which
may be included small amounts of -four
and OF other grains; 100000 tons of
mixed pork products. including lard sub
stitutes; 10000 tons of vegetable oil a
month for four months, and Il, 900 tons
OF condensed milk or oil substitute each
month for four months
Shipment of PSI 900 tons of this total
programme of 100000 tons was accom-
plished in April.
Mr.. Kellogg made plain yesterday that
there is no eleemosyenary spirit in the
feeding Of Germany.
Germany is paying for everything
she gets. as are all tho countries we
are supplying" he said THE only
charity involved is the free contribution
OF food to certain special uses like the
feeding of undernourished children, and
even in that the Government concerned
share the burden with the Allies and the
United States. She has paid already
$55.00o,000 in gold. and payments for
the rest are being arranged.
Hunger is only one OF three elements
operating in the direction of Bolshevism,
the other two being lack Of employment
and dissatisfaction with the results of
the revolution and the character Of the
present Government, large elements of
the working classes being convinced that
under the elected Government as at
present constituted the principles of
social democracy with respect to social
ization OF what they call public indus
tries, like coal mining, will not be car
ried out. In addition they believe that
the policies of the National Assembly
do not tend sufficiently TO promote the
measures destined to transfer the load OF
payment of war cost and war indemnity
from the working classes to the capital
istic classes, commonly regarded as
equally guilty with the military classes
in the causes of the war"
Noske the Great Leader.
Noske is the great genius in Ger
many to-day, says Mr.. Kellogg. He Is
the one man who seems able to bring
order out OF chaos. Aside from the
remnants OF the ola army, now mostly
engaged en- the east in lighting the
Poles the military force of Germany
consists OF mercenary bands An Off
Ger OF magnetic personality will post a
summons calling soldiers to him and
Offering them pay and food. Once as
sembled and organized he will sell its
services. So far these bands have sold
themselves almost exclusively IN tina