The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1919-04-21
INVESTMENT VIEWS
/ AND THE OUTLOOK
Confidence Continues to Run
Through Weekly Market
Letters of Brokers.
SHOW LITTLE PESSIMISNI
Few Writers Counsel Caution
and None Give Bearish
Tone to Advice.
SHOW LITTLE PESSIMISM

market has advanced in the last two
months has had marked effoct on such
weekly communications in that there is
scarcely TO be found In them one single
pessimistio utterance as to the probable
future OF the market The extreme
seems to be reached on this side of the
market In those letters which counsel
caution. Further than that none goes.
Various reasons are assigned by the
writer's for their opinions, but all are
bullish or at least semi-oullish. Here
and there will be discsrned O note OF
caution mixed with dyed In the wool
optimism. All agree apparently that the
situation with regard TO the Peace Con-
ference and the economic readjustment
period is becoming better instead Of
worse and that they can find no reason
FOR taking a bearish attitude on the
stock market. Appended are a few ex-
oerpts from some OF these letters. which
give an idea Of the general opinion
freely expressed in Wall Street.
J. S. Bache & Co.: interrupted ac-
'lvity due to holidays has It's technical
effect upon market movements, and a
holiday t0a a half this week has had
TO be reckoned with. For the most part
the week has been ono Of great activ-
ity. with an increasing number of sepa-
rate stocks being brouyht upon the stage
and made to do their special parts in
the performance This tendency to
broaden out activity has not made a
homogeneous general movement in one
direction or the other as in oldtime mar
kets While one Industrial, having
aRhievad m nd ha~ ~
away, other stocks have been bid up
Through the week considerable profit
taking has been evident, but while this
has produced great irregularity, no gen.
eral reaction has taken place. This may
be die to the fact that profit taking has
not been participated IN by veritable
owners OF stocks bought at much lower
prices, who do not wish to lose large
percentages OF such profits through
drastic income tax payments " these
large interests intend to keep their hold
ings until the war tax period passes or
until the tax percentage is materially
reduced this would act, for a consider
able period, as bulwark against heavy
sales to realize profits and might prove
an element in prolongation of bull mar
kets, at least until such time as out
side. participation had honeycombed the
structure with a widely distributed army
of smaller holders. Speculation Is con-
hned to a comparatively small number
OF securities. those pertaining to foods
chemicals. fuels. etc, things that are In
Immediate demand and cannot wait for
price settlements rs can steels, coppers
and railroads And these latter are con-
ssquently out OF the speculative area
for the present. With tho energy con-
centrated In this way activity In special
ties Is liable to increase"
Wrenn Bros. & Co.-"The announce
rent OF the terms OF the Victory Loan
put new life into the market during the
carly part OF the week In a limited
sense the reduction Of the amount OF
the loan from six to four and one-half
billions is a rather permanent bullish
Influence. This saving of one and one
half billions ia the approximate equiva-
lent of the total dividend payments Of
ali stocks in the United States, listed
Fpd unlisted. for ore whole year. Other.
wise expressed II is equal to about half
OF the total yearly income of the Amcri-
can people from all their investments
except Liberty bonds. The Government.
IN offering the public a choice between
low interest completely tax exempt
bond and high interest partly exempt
bond. has shown a degree Of financial
skill which has been lacking and has
made the new loan attractive to large
less one can scarcely regard the terms
of the loan as a basis for a real bull
movement from this level A heavy
burden wisely distributed is better than
the same thing badly distributed. but 1t
r. not a bull argument. The market is
generally firm in Response to a good
spring trade, TO heavy retail distribu-
tlon based upon war wages. TO a large
export trade based upon temporary
ahroad and continued wa
prices for products or services of many
leading industrial companies. Likewise
the comfortable posittou of the money
market is temporary m one sense that
demand for loans ia bound to increase
greatly when peace REIMBURSEMENT gets
Under way, while fiotation of the Vic
tclN Loan must for some time absorb
a large total Of loanable funds in bankz.
Thus one Is bound to believe that the
broad position of the market has not
been changed. For the present we look
only for a traders market"
Shonnsrd, Mills & Co.-"While market
conditions do not warrant specific ad-
vice at this juncture. 1t is Just as we'll
10 point out that the dealings I'm the
last three days have not uncovered weak
spots though the character of the trad
ing can be freely described as realiz-
ing and liquidation. Certain groups have
been, let alone: that is TO say the cop
pers and the rails, among the princi-
pals, and a few equipments have given
no sign OF action, but none of these
has displayed weakness, and this is
something 20 think about The steel
shares proper. led by United States Steel
and Bethlehem 3. have resisted pres
sure. actual and sentimental, and this
helped the general market. SO II stands
that the market is gaining in technical
strength through liquidation of one kind
or another and may not yet have reached
its turning point downward"
McCiave q Co.-"While We believe
that the period OF reconstruction is go
ing TO be passed through without any
serious strain, principally because cor
porations which have to bear the burden
have large profits upon which to fall
back and that employers recognize the
need OF keeping labor as profitably en-
ploycd as possible. and while we believe
that great bull markets based on sound
reasoning are TO be expected later IN the
year, we do not feel warranted In adopt
ing any attitude except one OF extreme
caution. There have been seventeen
days in wNtch a million shares or more
changed hands since the first OF March
There have been many more days in
which very nearly million shares
changed hands, In that time there have
been some enormous advances. The av-
erage prices have been almost at a
standstill. The buyers OF those million
share days are easy to find, for they
are mainly speculative buyers The sell