The Birmingham age-herald., 1919-01-22
The Outlook for the
 Supply Of Cotton
By w, W. MORRISON

Fly w. w.
 The south is on the eve of preparing for another crop of cotton. It brings to the front a very serious problem as to the supply. The problem is, perhaps, more serious than any the consumers throughout the world ever had to deal with, particularly, as it relates to the requirements of the next two or three years.
 It is clear that large crop will be needed; you see, the suffering of millions of people must not only be reived, but the supply must be sufficient to put them in a condition where they can effective ly undertake the great task of restora- tion now at hand. The records indicate that it will take crop of from 3O0O, 900 to 100000 bales larger than has been the average of the last four years to do this.'
 Should the crop of 1919 fall below this indicated requirement or should it, even be no more than 1,000,0OO bales larger than the crop of the war period, it would amount practically to what would be a world calamity.
 SUPPLY OF FUNDAMENTALS
 This is demonstrated by the obvious
 
 damentals is necessary to an early res- toration of the commerce of the world, now so vital part of the great pro- gramme of reconstruction. And an abundant supply of food and clothing especially, is still more necessary to quiet the dangerous unrest among the millions who inhabit the devastated countries of the old world. This unrest is not only menace to Europe but to the whole world. And statesmen IiniVarcallv raooy- nize that it is most urgent that the minds of these peoples should be imme- diately turned from a bent towards prisols and destruction to the orderly ways, and constructive occupations of peace. As these disorders are based upon absolute want it is clear they can only be removed by it's absolute relief through an abundant supply of clothing as weh as food.
 An abundant supply of raw cotton, during the next two years, is, therefore, an imperious world necessity, hence the outlook for the supply is a matter or momentous world concern. What is the outlook for this supply today? We find on the eve of preparing for another crop ! that July and october contracts are sell ing at price which would mean, easily, half billion dollars loss to the pro- ducers should they sell the unmark- eted portion of the 1918 crop, and the crop of 1919 at such price. The indicated price for all the commodities that are consumed in the production of cotton fully warrants this statement. What can be expected in view of such situation? Does it look reasonable that the acreage would be increased in the face of an obvious loss? Indeed, does it not look more reasonable that there l would be wholesale abondaning of cot ton for other products and other pur- suits that have always proven more profitable than cottan. notwithstanding Those of us who travel about the cotton country and have witnessed how marked the tendency is to abandon cotton, re- alize how menacing to the welfare of the world are the current developments in the cotton market.
 COST OF PRODUCTION Now to the effect of the cost Of production on the acreage the coming year. The opinion of aliens and the orists at the larger centers as to that cost are absolutely unimportant and should be ignored. It is the opinion of the producers only that will count in that matter. The writer has talked with hundreds of producers in every section of the belt and found the opinion is practically unanimous that if the cot ton has to be sold at the current prices of the contracts named II would mean just such loss as stated in this view.
 Since it has a most Illuminating bear ing on this phase of the subject under review, it is perhaps well to state in this connection that a commission merchant. whose activities have made him a real constructive force in southern affairs told the writer that he was ready to finance his clients in buying October ,t, +o ha ont of hnt