Evening star., 1919-03-30
GERMANY CONTINUES
A MENACE TO WORLD,
IN SPITE OF DEFEAT
Simonds Contends That Blundering and
Lack of Understanding by Allies Has
Rendered Bad Situation Worse.

i, doned his desk. economic paralysis
| 8 all over Germany. and, of course,
| the liquid capital of Germany avail
! able to meet foreign obi cations is
! ;afinitesimal.
This. after all, is the real tragedy
F, IF the situation which now confronts
! he Paris conference. With respect
Of Germany it had no policy. 1t was
surprised in November as it was sur
prised in March. Victorious at the
latter date. it could not believe its
own senses The one man who was
capable OF leading, namely President
Wilson. was interested in the organi-
cation of society in the league of
nations, not primarily in dealing with
Germany. and in a very real sense
all that has happened in the case of
Germany is exactly what happened
in the case of Russia We could not
make up our minds as to Russia.
We could not decide who were our
friends in Russia. We could not
satisfy ourselves what to do. and in
the end Russia disappeared in chaos.
The disease which is attacking Ger
many may or may not be the Sane
as the Russian disease. Not improh-
ably bolshevism. in part at lie lst. is
4 sheer Slav phenomenon. but it is
no less sure that the German disease
- following a course revealing ex-
actly the same symptoms in some
Puzzle for the Future.
have said all this with reference to
the German domestic condition be-
cause l am anxious that my American
readers should understand how great
ly Germany has changed between the
nth of November and the l1th OF
March. We have now, in fact, to specu
late as to whether there is any su-
thority capable of signing the name
of Germany to the peace of Versailles.
We have to calculate as to whether
the German representatives, if not in
the case of the prelimnaries OF peace.
which will be signed in Paris. at least
in the case of the definitive text. Will
not simply declare their inability to
sign such a document and invite the
allies to occupy Germany and enforce
their terms if they choose, hoping. as.
have said before, that while dlsor-
der grows in allies countries as re-
suit of the necessity of new military
effort and allied troops are corrupted
by German propaganda their presence
will protect German factories and
towns from the violence Of a revolu-
ton
The simple truth is that Germany
remains today as great mystery as
in 1914 or 1916. 1t remains as great
a peril. not in a military sense, but In
an economic sense and in moral
sense. Russia is in chaos. If to 1S0,-
000. 900 Russians there are added TO-
000. 900 Germans, if we have quarter
of billion people in Europe given
over to the production of anrchy, Will
not the peril of contagion be as great
as was the old danger of invasion!
And If even now we intervene to save
what is left of order in Germany and
we do save Germany, how shall 10000
600 of French men in the future defend
themselves against 100000 of Ger
mans, when Germany has regalned
her health and absorbed the Austrian
Germans?
Probable Frontier Changes.
Having said all this, I desire now
to pass to the simple and practical
question Of the changes in Germany's
political frontiers which are en-
vfsaged in the first draft Of the pre-
liminary peace terms Germany is
to lose outright Alsace-Lorraine.
with an area which, together with
that OF the Saar coal district slightly
exceeds 5000 square miles and an
ante-war population Of 2.25o.o0o.
portion of Schleswig. with upward of
1000 square miles and approximately
25O,000 people, although the ques-
tion Of the extent OF the area and
Of the number OF people taken will
depend upon tho vote Of the inhabit-
ants, and some Of the southern dis
tricts including the city of Flensburg
may choose to remain German.
She is to lose her province OF Posen
practically entire, with an area of
L 900 square miles and a population
Of 100000, together with strip of
upper Silesia, which will contain sew
eral thousand square miles and
LOCO, 900 people. In sum, Germany
Will lose thus outright between
20, 900 and $4,000 square miles. ap-
proximate1y 10 per cent of her old
area, with something like 5,500,000
people, or about per cent Of her
ante-war population. This last will
possibly, but not surely. be offset by
the gain incident to the union Of
the German-speaking districts of
Austria with the German empire.
These include the old divisions Of
lower Austria, upper Austria, Salz-
burg, Styria, Carinthia, at least half
of the Tyrol and the Vorarlberg, with
a population of about 100000 and
an area in excess OF 10000 square
miles. So far. then. Germany stands
rendered Alsace. Lorraine to France,
Schleswig to Denmark and Posen and
a portion of Silesia to the new
Poland.
Rhine Province In Bond.
! But there are two other changes in
German frontiers which may wholly
modify this situation. Between the