New-York tribune., 1919-07-10
VIII Germany Pay?
By William C. Dreher
Berlin Correspondent of The Tribune
(Copyrsht. 1919. Now York Tribune Incl

ID ERL1N, June 3-There is very little
} business doing in Germany The very
streets void of any appearance of
business activity. 1t is seldom that a dray
loaded with goods is seen moving on the
streets of Berlin. I saw yesterday wagon
loaded with brick and it struck me as a great
novelty. The little harbor on the canal
formerly busy scene, with teams hauling
away loads of brick and mortar, is now
wholly idle.
The bearing of all this upon the physi-
cal welbeing of the people and, by con-
sequence, upon their capacity to pay in
IDENTITIES is evident. A people which
must struggle with the primary problem
of producing its own meat and bread,
without being able to make enough to sup
ply Its lowest necessities, will certainly
not prove very profitable workers for for
eign account And that the German people
will not be able to feed themselves-not
able by far-within the coming years. is
the general opinion of all persons here
whose special studies and means Of obser-
walton entitle them to be heard Not
few are the predictions put forth that Ger
mans by the million will be compelled to
emigrate within the next decade or two.
Thus the strong probabilities are that the
financial burdens left by the war VIII have
to be borne by steadily dwindling popu-
lation.
Cherries Prospects
Now, excluding all interest payments on
the war loans, it seems certain that the
German government will require revenues
of at least five billions yearly in gold. Can
they be raised? In the most prosperous years
just before the war the annual surplus of
the German people was never greater, ac-
cording to the best estimates, than about
eight billion marks, but it would be rash
to predict that they will reach half that
(in gold) within the next five years.
Under all the circumstances, therefore,
the German financial prospects can anly be
regarded as extremely cheerless What
ever be the decision reached at Versailles,
it appears certain that Germany will be
confronted with a financial problem the
difficulty and dimensions Of which had
never been remotely conceived of before
now
In any case the Reparation Commission
will be confronted within the first year of
it's existence with multitude of difficult
financial problems. The indemnity pay
ments, for instance, are declared by the
treaty FIRST charge upon all the assets
and revenues of the German Empire and
its constituent states" If, however, the
enforcement of this provision shou'd in
volve the partial or complete suspcusior
of interest payments upon Gernany's own
loans, this would result-as universally
held by financial authorities herein the
bankruptcy of Germanys most important
financial institutions, its great banks, saw
ings banks and life insurance companies
The commission would, therefore, be con-
fronted with the question whether N the
interest Of the Allies, such a widespread
bankruptcy is desirable, or even admissi-
Bile. people whose great banks, savings
banks and life insurance companies have
been made bankrupt arc themselves bank
rupt.
But II is not alone the financial institu-
tions themselves that arc involved. A
great many Of the big manufacturing COM