Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1919-07-25
COTTON PROMISES Higher
Possible Supply Smaller Than Ter
tainlDemdnd.
GOVERNMENT STATISTICS CONFUSED
While the Figures as to Estimated
Stocks May be Approximately Cor
rect; the Distribution 10 Unequal
and the Mills that are Short Boost

Correspondence of The Yorkville Enquirer
Buffalo Lithia Springs. Va. July 2l'
Hon. John L. McLaurin, who Is here
with his wife and daughter has just
given me his carefully thought out
impressions Of the cotton SITUATION
He holds that while government
figures seem to encourage the idea
that the 1s1S-19 and the 1s1s-2O crops
might be somewhere near sufficient,
because OF the impossibility OF equal
di,tribution there can be nothing OF
the kind. He points out that while
many forehanded spinners have good
supplies Of cotton, others less FORE
handed have inadequate stocks, and as
the less forehanded will have to buy
from the more forehanded, the market
price will be regulated by the con-
sideration that the more fortunate
spinners show to their less fortunate
brstheren. Senator McLaurin does not
think that the top has nearly been
reached.
Last winter there was concerted
movement on the part OF SPECTATORS
backed by English mill interests, and
to some extent by the Federal Admin
istration, to depress the price OF cot
ton. 1t began after the October gov
ernment report when it was disclosed
that there was to be another short
crop. Mr.. Baruch opened the cam
paign by a declaration that the War
Industries Board would fix the price OF
cotton. The secretary Of agriculture
was reported by the press as saying
that 25 cents was all cotton was worth.
The Federal Reserve Board, began to
frown upon cotton collateral and IN an
incredibly short space Of time cotton
fell from SO cents to Is cents pound,
bringing millions Of dollars Of loss to
those too weak or too timid to hold
their cotton for what 1t was worth.
These conspirators against the
price of cotton have injured the entire
world. The destruction and con-
sumption of cotton during the war
has left a void which will not.be filled
in five years, and may never be filled
again.
las the factories turned by war into
other channels, resume work, 1t means
a steady increase Of spindles. the
high price of food forces more land
into food products. High priced labor
means high priced cotton, and / doubt
If as much cotton will be picked at
81 per hundred as at 80 cents per
hundred. Not with the kind Of labor
which does the picking. "a,
49, "on the-basis of the present rate or
consumption, the lowest estimate
(from an authoritative source) Is that
to keep the present number of spindles
in operation will require 16,6O0,0OO
bales of American cotton. The only
source of supply is the carry over of
the 1918 crop, and the one now grow
ing. Let us see:
ION August 1st, 1918 there were 81
ssO,lO5 bales on hand. and the present
crop is 11,SSs,1SS, this made 15.77S,24S.
1.-THE exports and mill consumption
was about ten million bales, leaving
on hand July 1st. about 5,750,000 bales.
Therefore the big question is what
Of the present crop.
There Is one significant fact which
I believe points to small crop. For
some reason the yield per acre has
grown steadily less each year since the
beginning of the war:
I'm 1914, it was 209.2 per acre.
in 1915 1t was 1903 per acre.
"In 1916 1t was 1866 per acre.
I'm 1917 1t was 1897 per acre.
I'm 1918 it was 1895 per acre.
81 have heard many reasons assign
ed to explain this undoubted fact,
chief among them the lack Of potash.
This may be true, especially on
sandy land, but my own opinion Is
that the lack Of efficient labor is the
chief cause. There is less winter
plowing and the land Is not properly
prepared, and every practical farmer
knows that the best crops are made
before they are planted.
Ford automobiles make more short
crops than lack Of potash, and 1t Is
cause not so easily remedied. The
government reported this crop 81 per
cent. short on acreage compared to last
year. The abandoned acreage In
Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia
from excessive rains Is bound to run
the percentage over ten per cent
under last year.
with the average deterioration In
July and August, the condition In
September cannot be more than 62 and
how any sane man can figure the
growing crop much over ten million
bales is beyond my comprehension. IL
can easily be much under ten million
Now when there is an estimate OF
actual consumption Of 16,500,000 bales
this means it takes just that many
bales to go around. A reserve stock
Ia q necessity and assured fact. The
forehanded will buy more cotton thar
they need. and will refuse to sell ex-
cept at greatly advanced prices. l DC
not think it possible to spin 16,5OO'ooI
bales without reserve Of at least l.
million bales distributed in mill centers
all over the world.
This makes 2OOOO.oO0 bales needed
for consumption and placing this croI
at 100000 and the carry over at s.
100000 makes a supply Of 15,75O,OOO
would leave a shortage Of 4,250,0OO tc
begin the season of 1919-1920. Suppose
we say the growing crop holds Its
own, then the shortage would still be
314 million bales. This does not take
into account the expected revival oI
trade, nor the fact that cotton goodf
are now selling on the basis Of arounc
65 cents a pound for cotton. | can SCI
it but one way. Cotton must advance
to where it is so high as to check II:
consumption to meet the decreased
supply.
WAR OF SECESSION"