The Washington herald., 1919-04-17
BANKERS SEE
WORLD TRADE
Trade Balance in Our Favor
of Billion Dollars a Year
Expected, Says Holland.

pop0ins 70 JOIN IN such cooperative
Undertaking. not by means Of syndi-
cates perhaps but by general co-opera-
uon as to furnish the financial assis-
tance which our allies will need and,
possibly by and by. Germany may
need In order to eliminate the marks
OF the war. to rebuild Industries. to
estaonsh and increase public utilities
aho PROBABLY to aid the farmers. The
nrst mint OF such purpose came from
vice President Arnold of a leading
oank or Chicago. He visited Europe
as soon as 1t was possible for hinl
10 call after the armistice was signed
IN the hope that he might gain from
actual inspection and study of condi-
uons some idea of what was needed
III the way of assistance to Europe
80 tnat her industries. her public utili-
Ties and her railroads may be well
re-established.
When Mr. Arnold returned he
spoke of the opportunity which the
American bankers will have of Civ
ing first aid in the re-establishment
OF public utilities and also in the
marketing of securities issued by
municipalities. He believed that
when peace is established by rati-
NED treaty the American bankers
VIII be approached from the other
side OF the ocean for financial aid
and he believed furthermore that
arrangements could be made which
would make 1t safe to give such
AID. not only safe but also of great
advantage to the United States.
Fred l. Kent. vice president Of the
Bankers Trust. went even further
than Mr.. Arnold. 1t has already been
reported in this column that Mr..
Kent estimates an international
balance in favor of the United States
every year for perhaps ten years.
OF billion dollars. What that
means for American export trade il
Is not necessary to set forth. He
also Is of the opinion that Ameri-
can bankers will be called upon to
provide credit or funds aggregating
each year for number of years at
least three hundred million dollars.
possibly more.
What the Bankers Purpose Doing.
Apparently Mr.. Arnold and Mr..
Kent spoke the thought that has
been in the minds of American
bankers since the armistice was
signed Only few days ago lead
ers in the banking life Of the larger
cities of the United States met in
New York. almost informally. for
the purpose of talking over the
situation so that some agreement
may be reached respecting the best
way to handle vt. II must have
been easy to reach an agreement.
although perhaps a tentative and
informal one. For it is now an
rounced that American bankers are
speedily to establish an organiza-
In hi. =
fuII play and which will be so
utilized as to provide credit for
tnose- who purpose buying com
modIties in the United States
Net a Governmental Act.
This is to be in no sense gov
ernmsntal act There was a time
when the government at Washing
ton did not look with favor upon
transactions of this kind. One very
important one in which China was
interested was brought to an end
through the action of a Secretary of
State some years ago. Now the gov
ernment will make no objections
and probably will be glad if great
cooperation among the American
bankers for this purpose is secured.
The transactions are to be exclu
SlNeiE between private INTERESTS dI
first in France. Italy and the Scandi-
navian countries and the American
bankers. Not many hours will pass
after a treaty of peace is siged be-
fore negotiations for credits in the
United States will be continued and
probably perfected
There are some technical details
which are not of special interest to
laymen which must be worked out
before negotiations can be COM
pIeted. 1t may be said. however.
that il is probable that the organi-
zation will work chiefly upon the
financial principle which is repre-
scented by the $50.000.000 credit
which was recently given to a group
OF Belgian banks so that Belgium
could buy raw material and other
needed commodities in the United
States.
This organization has gone far
enough in its preliminary plans to
Justify q brief sojourn in Europe by
Fred ]. Kent. who is the head of the
foreign exchange division of the Fed
cral Reserve Board. This will not be
Mr.. kents first experience in investi-
eating credit needs. or in fact his
second. The first time he visited
Europe was ~ the purpose of
establishing branches of the Bank
ers' Trust Company. The second
time he was in the service of the
government. He is a master hand
at investigation of this kind. He
ranks in capacity for thorough in
vestigation and in ability to formu-
late into plans the results of his in
vestigation with the work which
years ago was performed by Edwin
3. Adams when he was leading in
electrical and water power indus
tries.
When New Years Day dawns in
1920 the probabilities are that there
will have been arranged with the |
American bankers credits aggregat- |
ing perhaps s400.000.000. of which |
avail will be made by private in |
terests in other lands and by mu-
inequalities which stand in great |
need of assistance of this kind. And |
il several hundred million dollars |
in the form OF credits are arranged
for within the next eight months
then it is probable that in the year
1920 as much more in the way of |
American credits will be furnished |
to private interests in other lands |
which will seek aid in the United |
States. II only ships in sufficient |
amount can be provided with which !
to carry the commodities that
Europe wants to buy in the United i
States to the European countries |
we are likely to see such a move ]
ment of international trade as a few
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