davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
919Nn%ssrs lndss
Dec Jan May

arising out of manufacturing goods.
Possibly at this date they are re-
ceiving rather more than their
share, but this, of course, is a mat
ter that will be adjusted when the
supply of labor gets back to nor
NAL, which it should do in the next
two or three years at the latest.
II do not feel that prices on man
ufactured goods can decline ma
terially from the present level with
out substantial reduction in wage
rates; whereas | look for certain
decline in these wage rates it does
not strike me that it will be suf-
fclently large to be termed sub
stantial.
The price outlook in our own
industry is no doubt different from
that of most others, due to the fact
that the supply Of crude rubber has
increased by leaps and bounds in
the past Ihree or tour years. The
reason for this goes back to the
high prices Of rubber about 1910.
when the best grades reached the
unprecedented level of $500 a
pound. This of course resulted in
a remarkable influx of capital to
The rubber plantations, which are
just about now coming to maturity
and which has placed the supply
somewhat ahead of demand.
ITO sum up the situation in the
rubber industry, we find that labor,
chemicals, duck and general cost
Of doing business have reached high
levels, which will probably be main
tanned without substantial altera-
tlons for an indefinite period.
"On the other hand. rubber it.
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
r. Douglas Was Wrong He Spoke Dead Language

to take advantage of it. The nat
ural consequence Of this is that
selling prices must increase 20 main
tain reasonable parity between
them and cost Of production. Fur
thermore, the wage tendency is up
ward rather than downward.
II believe that Professor Fisher
is absolutely correct in maintaining
that we shall never go back to pre-
war conditions, and propaganda to
the contrary from responsible
sources must necessarily result in
creating a sentiment for hesitation
te ding to delay rather than TO fa-
cilitate readjustment."
Charles Cheney, Of Cheney Broth
CTS, silk manufacturers, said:
Il do not anticipate a return to
rre-war prices for labor or for COM
modities. [ agree with Professor
Fisher that we are on a new price
level, which will be fairly perma-
nent. There will, Of course, be fiuc
tuations, and expect slight ten
dency downward, but nothing radi
cal
Labor certainly will not, and I
believe, in view of existing cond;-
tions, should not, accept reduced
wages. On the ether hand, they are
a strong push to obtain
shorter working hours, and | think
that every experienced industrial
manager will certify that efficiency
has suffered much during the war
days and that it Will be most diff
cult to reestablish discipline and in
tensive work.
"The same or similar conditions
have prevailed in greater or lesser
degree throughout the world, and
thereby the cost of raw materials
will be influenced in the same way
as is domestic production.
"In spite of great deal of loose
talk that is handed about, it is un-
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

though the cost of labor does not
enter largely into the cost of crude
rubber, Arthur W. Stedman, rubber
broker, expects no substantial de-
cline of prices.
"1n general the rubber industry
has been quiet since the cessation of
the work on war contracts" he said,
following the signing of the armis-
tlce last November. With the sud-
den cancellation Of government con-
tracts many manufacturers found
themselves with surplus stocks of
crude rubber, and with rubber goods
manufactured and in process of
manufacture, which had to be di-
verted to the regular channels of
consumption.
"The early months of the year
have been devoted largely to repairs
and .overhauling of the various
plants and the digesting Of surplus
supplies. This has now been largely
accomplished, and the trade is in
shape to take care of the improved
business already in sight. Restora-
ton of stocks, supplying normal re-
qulrements and meeting the growing
export demand will call for greatly
acrp1eratod OOtput
"The tire trade is already showing
considerable activity, owing to the
ambitious programme Of the manu-
facturers for the year. Some 3d.
100000 or more tires will be re-
quired for the 6,000,000 cars now in
operation in the United States and
the 100000 to 100000 new cars
to be manufactured this year, be-
sides the increasing demand for ex-
port. Little, if any, recession in
prices for manufactured rubber
goods is anticipated as long as the
present high cost of labor, COM
pounding ingredients and cotton tex
tiles continues.
"The result of the restrictions put
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
Higher Labor Costs, Shortage Of
Stocks and Great Retail De.
mand Are Dominant Factors

self has declined and will probably
continue to decline for an equal
period. This should result in rel
ative easing off in prices on rubber
productions as compared with those
of the metal trades, cotton, etc.
H. S. Campbell, of the Regal Shoe
Company, feels that new era in
prices has been reached. In ana
Lying the movement of prices dur
ing the war he said:
After our entry into the war the
government put maximum price on
hides, beyond which tanners in this
country could not pay. This was an
effort to keep the price of shoes
down. This restriction was lifted
about the first Of this year, and
since that time upper leather has
increased from 10 to 20 cents a foot.
which means from 80 to 60 cents a
pair added to the cost of the shoe.
AS quickly as the artificial price was
removed and the law of supply and
demand was in force prices Jumped
to the highest point that has ever
been reached.
"Of course, leather is a by-prod
uct; cattle are raised and killed for
food and not for leather. There IS
a serious shortage of cattle in the
countries from which we formerly
received most Of our calfskins-
France, Russia and Belgium. The
herds have been depleted because the
meat was needed as food for the SOL
dlers and the grazing used for
horses. From the most authentic
reports that we can get Russia will
not be IN position to give us calf
SKINS for years, and at auctions this
month III France the prices received
for calfskins means that when the
leather is tanned it will have to be
sold at 95 cents to 81 foot, which
is higher than the present domestic
market. So you can see that we
have no relief in sight from our for
eign markets for cheaper leather.
"One of the reasons why leather
has taken such abnormal jumps in
II
the last month is due to the export,
particularly to England, Sweden,
Norway and Japan. English buyers
have practically cleaned the market
on certain feathers at extremely high
prices. Now, this means that there
is no leather in Europe; it also
means that prices are going to con-
tinue high until the world shortage
of shoes is supplied.
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

makers of suits and coats, diagnosed
the situation in this way:
We feel that the prices will never
go down, but that there is every in
dication that they will go higher
The continuous increase in wages
and shorter hours, both in our in
dustry as well as all the industries
that supply materials to US, will
force the prices continually up"
The head of a large wholesale drv
goods house, who asked that his
name be withheld, declared that
prices canAot decline materially
without a substantial reduction in
wage rates and the cost of living,
and that the price outlook was
strong, with rising tendencies
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

questionably true that wages have
advanced considerably beyond the
ad 7ance in the cost Of living, which
would indicate that if the public
were so disposed it could sanction a
considerable economy by return to
old standards, but this is most i'm
probable, and really not to be de-
sired. So far as the excess has been
for extravagances and unnecessary
luxuries a curtailment would not be
injurious, but insofar as it is attrib-
utable to a better scale of living it
should be maintained.
"Unquestionably there have been
large profits realized in certain lines
during the war period, and this sit
uation VIII not continue after nor
NAL basis of production and compe-
tjtion has been reestablished. This
offers an opportunity for some slight
reduction in prices, but it will not
be very material factor
William Skinner, of William Skin
ner & Sons, silk manufacturers, de-
clared:
When Mr.. Douglas says the high
prices continue without the slight
est reason under the sum it is alb
surd, as raw silk has advanced until
it is now higher than it was at any
time during the war and manufact-
ured goods have been corresponding
ly advanced. have not touched
upon the labor situation at all.
"As regards prices declining ma
terially, the prices of silk goods can
not decline SO long as raw material
continues to advance. | believe that
Vim the silk trade prices Will continue
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

ing prices. Reduction in wage rates
must be by gradual readjustment,
and until these rates are lowered
there can be no appreciable reduc-
tlons IN the cost of our particular
production. We believe this same
thing applies to manufacturers in
general and not to the rubber in
dustry specifically. 1t is possible,
and even probable, that some de-
clines may become effective on GER
tain lines either by reason of i'm
proved methods or occasioned by
competition, but no legitimate rea-
son for reduction in prices for the
immediate future are evident.
owe find it difficult to accept Mr..
Douglass statement that high prices
continue without the slightest rea-
son under the sum- and must con-
clude that his statistics compiled by
the committee Of which he is chair
man did not cover the rubber in
dustry or these would not have been
his conclusions
F. R. Goodell,- selling agent for
Converse Rubber Shoe Company,
said:
81 feel that Professor Fishers
viewpoint is the correct one. I do
not feel that we will return to the
pre-war scale of prices at any date
in the near future. Everything
points the other way, particularly
as regards labor costs. Crude ma
terlals will undoubtedly swing back
to some figure approximately near
prewar levels in the next decade,
but finished articles, where any
great amount of manufacturing cost
is involved, can hardly do so, unless
we return to the old standard of
profit distribution, existing be-
tween labor and capital My per-
sonal feeling is that labor in past
years did not receive its full meas
ure in the distribution of profits
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
Business Men Hold That @There
Is Every Reason Why Prices
Should Remain at New Level
n HEN of business Throughout
iV the country are fast per
- - Aln& a

NTEN Of business throughout
MI the country are fast per-
ceiving that the coming of
peace will not mark return to pre-
war prices.
The naive notion that the old
threads Of the world as it was prior
to August, 1914, would be picked
up again in 1919 no longer deludes
the minds of leaders in barter and
production. A feeling that a new
price level has been attained is driv-
ing hitherto hesitant buyers into
the market for goods, and the para
lying assumption that prices
would drop is being supplanted by
a deeper understanding of the basis
of present prices.
A. W. Douglas, chairman Of the
committee on statistics and stand
ards of the Chamber of Commerce
Of the United States, gave the set
ting for sharp lineup of authori-
tative opinion on the future of
prices, when he said at the recent
convention of that body at st. Louis
that the high prices continue with
out the slightest reason under the
sun" and that ''if the law of supply
and demand were given freedom
Of operation the decline would con-
tinue until a normal level was
reached
A diametrically opposed view was
short time ago expressed by Pro-
fessor Irving Fisher, of Yale Uni
versity. He asserted that those who
speak of pre-war which pre-
sumably is what Mr.. Douglas means
by normal" al"-"speak dead lam
guage.'
The Tribune brought these two
opposite poles Of opinion to the at
tention of leading business men of
many lines, wholesale and retail,
and asked them whether Mr.. Doug
las or Professor Fisher had inter
preted the price situation more ac-
curately.
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
How Embargoes Effected
The Supply of Goods

another cause which was potent
IN emphasizing the present short
age of raw material and finished
leather was the fact that in June,
1913, an import embargo was placed
upon practically all such hides and
SKINS as were not required for army
purposes. Although some conces-
slons were made by way of modify
ing this embargo, the net result
was a very much diminished inl-'
portation of hides and skins and a
consequent small stock on hand at
the end of last year.
while judging from certain
statistical data it appears that, due
to the stimulus of war conditions,
the production Of livestock and OF
hides and skins in this country dur
ing the last year was increased, live
stock and the production of hides
and skins practically all over the
world, and especially in European
countries, has been greatly dimln-
ished, with the net result that the
world supply now, and probably for
some time to come, will actually
show considerable reduction.
''As to the future, all that | can
say is that in view of the aforesaid
the demand for finished leather IS
likely to continue unabated, and 10
seems reasonable to suppose thas
when the European countries, soma
of which have been swept practicalss
ly bare of leather and OF leathes'
goods, are opened up to trade aga'R
present conditions and the price
tendency are apt TO continue toa
some time to come" -
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
Douglas View Right
IT We Cease Buying

prices cannot decline materially
without a substantial reduction in
the wage rate. Even though the
wage rates of the shoemakers de-
cline 20 per cent, it would not effect
materially the price of the shoe, but
every one from the time the animal
is slaughtered and the hide removed
to the time that the shoe is handed
to the customer by the salesman has
had wages practically doubled, and
each step along the line must reduce
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
Factors That Keep
Up Al Prices

|
advancing instead Of declining, as
was anticipated, and this in spite Of
the fact that there is in the world,
chiefly in Australia, an adequate
supply Of WOOL Lack of transporta-
ton facilities, coupled with the tre-
mendous shortage of wool in Europe,
however, is the factor in maintain
ing the price, and these conditions
cannot be rectified in time to bring
about any chance of lower prices for
clothing for at least one and half
years, and perhaps two years.
"All Of the foregoing is without
taking thought of the permanent in
creased cost of production and the
higher normal level that must OBJ
tain, certainly through the next
decade, if not for longer period"
Mr.. Heilbroner said:
81 am convinced that the present
prices are due entirely to the law
OF supply and demand
"The retail business has never been
so large and stocks of the whole
salers have never been so low;
therefore, a tremendous demand
has been created for merchandise,
and owing to the very high cost of
raw materials and the large in
crease in the price of labor, to-
gether with the shortened hours
which restrict the production, there
must necessarily be a very high
price for commodities.
81 feel that this condition will
continue for some time, in view of
the fact that it will take the man
ufacturers long time to fill their
outstanding orders, and with a con-
tinuance of good retail business
these orders VIII be duplicated
more rapidly than in the past. I
do not believe it will be possible
to produce goods any cheaper un-
less labor prices are correspond
ingly reduced"
According to Mr.. Brill, business
in the seven chain stores which his
firm operates in the city was never
nearly so good as at present since
its establishment thirty-one years
ago. He said that business men of
wide vision were already recogniz-
ing that great fall in prices is
not coming, and that the smaller
merchants who have been holding
off in their fall buying in anticipa-
ton of decline are pursuing a
fallacious path and may be caught
without goods.
'The shelves in the mems stores
of the country" he said, "are only
half stocked. And, with the de-
mand from returning soldiers and
civilians so tremendous as it is it
10 unlikely that they will be fully
filled for two years, and until that
time no drop in prices can be an
ticipated.
I'VE are on d. new price basis.
Costs from the bottom up are high
er, and labor, constituting large
proportion of the total cost, will not
accept radical reductions in wages.
In our industry we already face a
serious shortage of labor"
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18
american Business Nosc
On Netc Price Lepei

Without exception those who re-
piled sided with Professor Fishers
view. A summary of the points in
which there was extremely striking
agreement follows:
We are on a new price level.
with no chance of a return to
the pre-war level in the near fu-
ture, if at any time.
, Manufactured articles in which
the cost of labor is an impor-
tant factor are never likely to sell
again at pre-war prices, as wages
will not swing back. There NAV be
labor famine in this country in a
year.
> In many industries the demand
for goods far exceeds the sup
ply. Deferred buying during the
war period is now finding an out
let and swelling the volume of busi-
ness.
1 The facts that retail business
is unprecedentedly large and
stocks of wholesalers are unusually
low stand as bulwark against the
possibility of break in prices.
In some industries, G. e., silk
and leather, prices have been
rising instead of falling since the
armistice was signed.
4 Infant industries, born during
the war face price problems
different in kind from other indus
tries.
The arguments of the business
men who participated in this sympo-
SUM were predicated on the as
sumption that prices will hold their
own under the free working Of the
law of supply and demand. The
ambitious attempt of the Secretary
OF Commerce, through the Indus
trial Board, of which George N.
Peek was chairman, failed artificial
ly to stabilize prices. And-ironical
iy enough-after Director General
OF Railroads Hines had killed
the plan because he believed the
prices arranged with the steel COM
panies were too high, prices rose,
steel plates have been quoted 50 a
ton higher by one company since the
market was set free, and eleven steel
companies submitted to the navv
virtually identical bids to those it re-
jected on April 4.
In presenting the Douglas and
Fisher views to business leaders te
dramatize the price question The
Tribune asked them to base their re.
plies on intimate knowledge Of thei,
own trade, to be specific and definite
These inquiries were stressed:
Which Of these two statement.
the Douglas and the Fisher is the
more accurate as applied to the in
dustry in which you are engaged?
DO you think prices can decline
materially from the present level
without a substantial reduction in
wage rates?
What, briefly, Is your view Of the
Price outlook in your industry?
For the mems clothing industry
William Goldman expressed the
viewpoint Of the wholesaler. and
Maurice Brill, Of Brill Brothers. and
Louis Heilbroner, of Weber g. He'll
broner. Of the retailers.
Mr.. Goldman said,
Where Mr.. Douglas errs is that
IN does not take intS account thai
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

John Slater, shoe retailer, said.
Mr.. A. w. Douglass remarks.
High prices continue withon,
the slightest reason under ,hs
sum- and that, If the law of srn
ply and demand were given fres
dom of operation the decl;n.
would continue until normo,
level was reached
possibly may be correct. prov;d;,.
all of US do without eating s,oaa
ing and without using the necessitis,
of life until labor will be glad -
work for nothing, the merchant II
sell his goods for nothing, and in
fact, play happy lines without er.
pense and go back to the davs q,
Adam and Eve.
in our business there seems IN
be every reason why prices should
be abnormal and not come down
Labor claims they cannot live q,
cheaply, therefore they must gst
more for their services. And tb;.
applies to every article used in opr
productions, and not until the nrics,
Of food and raw materials fall can
we hope for redress.
"Conditions in other countries ar.
all abnormal, and the United States
is being called upon to fill up a his
gap produced by waste of war and
where we have greater demand than
a supply so surely will high prices
be maintained. This compels the
tanner of all kinds of leather and
the manufacturer of all kinds of
shoes to exact prices for their ar.
tlcles that We're never even con.
sldered before. This does not all
represent profit, but his production
costs have advanced 90 to 20 per
cent.
"The retailer has necessarily .
higher cost for doing business than
formerly, and his profits must be
proportionately larger"
NJ. Rossbach, of ]. H. Rossbach 4
Bros, dealers in hides and skins
said:
"since the signing of the armis.
tlce there has been steady and
practically uninterrupted advance in
the prices Of raw hides and skins
and i'll all grades of leather. The
reasons for this are not far to seek.
The tremendous demand for leather.
occasloned by the requirements of
many millions of men under arms.
had stimulated the production of
hides and skins and in manv IN
stances at the expense of herds. The
demand during the war period for
hides and skins, as we'll as for meat.
was so great that IN a good manv
producing countries cattle, goats
and sheep were killed off to a great.
er extent than was warranted bv
Shelr reproduction ability. The shoe
and leather producing power of this
country during the war was largely
diverted from the making of civil.
ian shoes to that of articles for army
use, so that the stocks of civilian
shoes were greatly depleted when
the armistice was signed, w;.ile on
the other hand a great deal of the
leather for military purposes had
been continuously destroyed and
had to be replaced. All these fac.
tors would have tended to drive up
the price of raw material consid.
erably during the last year of the
war, but this result was artifcialy
prevented by the establishment Of !.
governmental fixed maximum prices
Consequently, when the armistice
was signed and the maximum prices
abrogated some six weeks there.
after, the law of demand and sup
ply reasserted itself, with the re.
suit indicated above, namely,
Stpo div -ici,,~
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

upon imports during the war was a
large accumulation of stocks Of crude
rubber at the ports of origin. These
stocks have now been forwarded to
the consuming markets and have
been fairly well absorbed. Enough,
however, remains to keep the spot
market at lower level of prices
than those for shipment.
New-York tribune., 1919-05-18

self has declined and will probably reflected in the finishes
continue to decline for equal product" "'a
South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1919-12-15
Germany of Today Without National Holiday

was done and two intensive courses Of
u days each were given. Heads Of
the different local agricultural col
leges, a Director from each Depart
ment of France, and the women heads
of the travelling domestic school
ecOles ambulants-received instruc-
tons. The men were as enthusiastic
as the women and not only interested
in the theoretical part, but they went
to canning themselves, doing the ac-
tual work
Two brothers who took canning les
sons were Greeks, men OF cultivation
and much charm OF manner, who were
taking the two-year course in agri-
culture at the Grignon College and
who were in the employ OF the Egyp-
tian government and were going back
70 work in the valley Of the Nile. They
were greatly interested in the canning,
and. wearing the long robes OF the stu
dents of the callege, they took active
work in the college classes. They said
that the canning would be the means
OF saving thousands OF dollars in
Egypt. where there are six or more
haryests in year.
And two venerable priests. with long
boards and IN their ecclesiastical
robes, from Syria and Armenia visited
the plant and were anxious 10 have
the workers take their outfit 10 their
respective countries. where they. too,
said the salvage Of crops would be
great