The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1919-04-16
For Germany to Pay.

FOR Germany 10 ray.
In the cable dispatches telling Of
the twenty-five billions Of dollars OF
reparation to be taken from Germany
as a minimum, with something more
to follow as Il can be worked out, all
the terms Of payment are not clearly
stated. There Is no doubt az to the
first block Of 5000, O00, 600 to be paid
10 two years without interest. APP
parently the second block Of $4,000
100000 is to pay only interest of 2h
per cent. a year from 1921 to 1925,
with nothing going into the sinking
fund during those flve years Ap-
parently. also, interest Of per cent.
is to be paid during the next twenty
FIVE years. But possibly the published
arrangement means that the 8 per
cent. Is to take care Of both interest
and sinking fund charges.
No terms are announced as to the
third block of $4,000, O0O,0 900 and
nothing gives an inkling Of even the
amount Of the further reparation that
may be required.
II we assume that Germany can
raise, In gold, In securities, in COM
modities and other property the first
5000 900. 900 to be paid within two
years, the task Of the next I'VE years,
with merely interest ut 2h per cent.
on the second block Of $4,000, 0O0, 900
and perhaps the same interest on the
third $4,000. 600, 900, will be relatively
easy--some $500. 600, 900 a year. The
heavier going will begin In the sew
enth year from now, when, to cover
interest and extlnguishment Of the
debt, Germany may have to pay for n
while. according to the way you read
the terms, perhaps $1,750.000.OO0 a
year, without reckoning the still un-
fixed reparation.
Even Mt that. II the new Germany
is to be what the old Germany was,
the load, heavy as It would be, could
be borne. In the seven years between
now and the bigger task the German
genius for organization, the German
adaptability to industrial production
and the German love Of hard work
might easily restore the nation to its
old economic position--the Allies con-
senting.
Before the war Germany, with her
$4,000, 100000 of wealth, probably
had a national unconventional pro.
luction-of between six billions and
eight billions Of dollars a year. 1t Is
not an unusual thing for an industri-
Gus. thrifty people to be able to save
u full quarter of their annual produc-
ton, the rest being needed not merely
10 feed, clothe and shelter themselves,
but to build and expand their indus.
trial and commercial structure. Under
pressure such people could set aside
Il full third of their income. with q
steaming up ut times TO even one-half,
as our own country did In paying for
our share Of the war and helping the
Allies to pay their share.
A third Of Qermnny's normal pro.
duction could safely be stated at two
and q half billions Of dollnrs a year.
This, after a long pun, would clean
the debt. So much for Germany's
ability to do the reparatlon job.
But the question is not could Ger.
many pay tho twenty-five billions OF
dollars or more, but will she pay iti
The opinion which understands the
German nature, knows the German
economic situation and weighs the
German trade future, will conclude
that Germany will be very glad to
nay the announced repnration, will be
very glad to pny any reparatio that
she Is able to pay.
Germany cannot reoperate her In.
dustrial machine, restore her produc.
tive capacity and eurn her own living
without q reestablishment OF her old
relations with the markets Of the
world. Until the markets of the world
are open to her again she cannot buy
materials she needs for her indus,
tries; she cannot sell surplus products,
Until she signs the treaty Of peace
not merely accepting Its terms but full.
filling them. Germany cannot get into
those markets of the world either to
buy or to sell.
Nobody knows better than Germany
that the very peace treaty, with the
gigantic reparation to be paid, IL go.
ing OF necessity to put Germany back
into the markets Of the world. The
Allies themselves must put her there
80 that she can pay them. Then, once
she Is back In the markets Of the
world, is getting her material from
them and Is sending 1t back again az