New-York tribune., 1919-01-26


off the money market might have
had a great effect. But in these
three months much has happened.
One is the abrupt cessation of the
war. leaving the government with
vast stores of supplies on hand and
hinge unfulflled contracts, and much
else to contribute to period of
= great uncertainty, and, to many,
real danger. 1t is impossible to can
eel several billions of war orders
and imagine that quite the same
efervescent enthusiasm will remain
in the stock market. There has been
evidence in these three months of
careful, solid investment buying.
At the same time there has been
much evident liquidation and some
forced selling The balance has been
slightly on the downward side.
There can hardly be excited specu-
lation in industrials on dwindling
orders and large cancellations; none
in railway shares with the roads in
the hands of a more or less ire
sponsible political administration,
which can levy on the public Treas
ury for deficits. Nor in the face of
another coming Liberty Loan cam
paign for S5,OO0,0OO,00O or $6,OOO,-
100000. If there had been any
such prospect, quite possibly the re-
strictions would not have been re-
moved.
Three-quarters of a billion seems
large sum for the government to
meet for the railways this year. But
in reality it is far below the actual
need One unmentioned item is that
Of deferred maintenance. This has
been reckoned by capable engineers
for the last year at not less than
100000, 900. If this were added to
the sum which the various.roads set
down as expressing their actual
needs for betterments and replace
ments, the sum that would be re-
quired this year would be nearer
twice three-quarters of a billion.
If, because of the present lull in
business and falling off in traffic, the
railroads take the position that they
will make no improvements this
year, they virtually take the stand
that in four years there has been
no material growth in the need of
railway facilities in this country.
Growth, we know, there has been.
Yet to all intents there has been
little increase in the actual equip
ment and trackage of the roads.
They have done wonderful work
in driving up the effective capacity
Of the roads and gaining markedly
m efficiency. This gain will subsist.
But it still remains that a reaction
ary and standstill policy on the part
Of the railroads now, would do as
much as anything could to arrest,
for the time being, the country's
normal industrial growth.
The announcement now of an ag-
gressive campaign for the expen-
diture Of $1,000, 100000 in railway
buying for this year of 1919 would
De the finest antidote for uncertain
ty that could be devised.
At least one thoughtful fnancier
fnds much that is perplexing in the
thoughts of some other financiers
who are much in the public eye.
de argues: The government is to
write off $1,000, 100000 on the cost
Of new ships-whch the taxpayers
must pay. The government will re-
qulre many more billions before the
army can be brought home and de-
modified - which the taxpayers
must pay. We must write off ST.
10000, 900 or more for unfulflled
and cancelled contracts. Then the
Railway Administration asks for
100000, ZOO to foot the railway de-
nett, not Of last year, but this coming
year. All told $4,000, 100000 or
Sl2,000,o00,00O at least. And for
eign loans, which will be almost in
eSltable in financing our foreign
uade, may easily run $2,000,0 1000
10000 or $3,O00,0O0,O00. Round
tosal, say, SIS, 5,00O,0OO,OOO to meet
'nls year. Onlytwo sources-income
Or surplus wealth. Now, he adds,
Supposing we write off 25 per cent
or more on the nations present in
Ventory Of goods. That might easily
run, for the years product, another
slo,O00,000,0 600 or more. Grand
sotal, at least $25, 100000, 900.
mhere is it all coming from?