The Dillon herald. [volume] (Dillon, S.C.) 1894-????, 1919-09-11
WILL INFLUENZA
EPIDEMIC RECUR?
State Health Officers of South Caro-
lima, North Carolina and Virginia
Confer on Question and Express
Opinion-Likely to Come Again.

IndI lnlluSilLd epluSIliS uSuolAs III
volve 40 per cent. of the popuation
and the epidemic of 1918 involved
35 per cent. of the population, leav-
ing about per cent. yet TO be IN
yolved is a statement which is con-
tanned in a recent paper given out by
DIR. James A. Hayne, State health Of
fieer.
DR.. Hayne, DR., w. S. Rankin,
health officers of North Carolina and
DR.. E. G. Williams, health commits
sioner of Virginia recently held con-
ference in Raleigh on influenza. They
are now preparing bulletin having
tn do with the treatment of the di-
sease should it assume epidemic pro
portions this fall.
This bulletin will soon be issued to
physicians and health officers of the
three States. Yesterday the following
paper. which is composite statement
from the three health officers, was
given out by DR.. Hayne. 1t touches
upon the possible recurrence OF the
influenza epidemic this fall and Win
ter.
The paper follows:
Will 1t Recur?
The epidemic of influenza will recur
this winter if the germ that causes it
is not worn out in killing people. II
we have no artificial means-quaran-
Iipe or yaccination-for controlling
the disease, or if it has not already
affected all of the population that is
susceptible. But note the three Ifs,
any one of them can prevent or limit
the recurrence of the epidemic. 1t Is
therefore necessary in arriving at
satisfactory answer to our question
that we understand the three POSI-
BILE factors that limit the duration OF
epidemics.
AS suggested, these three factors
are:
First: The loss of virulence by the
infective germ which causes an cpl
demic as a factor in the cessation OF
the epidemic is an extremely remote
possibility-almost too remote. to dis
cuss. We are unable to. find any ref-
erence in the literature available 10 us
on this question:; indeed the science
of bacteriology teaches the reverse,
that infective germs gain rather tnan
losa yirulence during an epidemic.
Germs are small vegetable forms ana
il is a matter of common observation
that successive generations of plants,
the soil in which they grow remaining
the same, become more vigorous rath-
er than less vigorus. 1t therefore does
not seem reasonable nor propaDle
that epidemics, including influenza
stop because of the exhaustion OF the
infective germ.
Second: Artificial means, such as
quarantine and vaccination, may De
effectively applied in the control Oh
some epidemics, as diphtheria, typhoid
scarlet fever, yellow fever, but there
is no evidence to show, and there are
NO health officers of dependable. rep
utation who believe that any epidem-
lie of influenza has ever been or can
be controlled or stopped with our
present means. The most that can be
done by artificial means such as pre-
venting public assemblages, is to re-
tard the progress Of the epidemic
so that available medical nursing care
may be adequate to the emergency.
/, Third: The consumption of the in
affective material, susceptible fuel,
it immune like the unstrick-
en- portion of the population, is by the
exclusion of the other two possible
factors the responsible factor and the
sole factor in limiting the duration OF
an influenza epidemic. To recur TO the
illustration used above: The farmer
knows what clover sick land Is; that1
il is land on which clover has oeen
grown for a number Of years until
some of the chemical elements Of the
soil necessary to the life OF the clover
have been so completely consumed oy
the successive crops that the soil can
no longer produce the clover which
for several reasons grew luxuriant-
ly; and in the same, way and Tor the
same reason the soil became sick, un-
able to produce any crop raised con-
tinuously upon it for number Oh
years. So with epidemics; they can
begin, spread, and exist only ON non
immune, susceptible populations, and
when the susceptible population has
been affected and made immune, the
epidemic, under natural laws, must
stop.
What Per Cent. Affected?
Now. comes the real question
What percentage of the influenza
susceptible population did the cpl
demic of last winter affect? On our
ability to answer this question would
Eeem to rest our right to draw con-
clusions as to the prevalence OF in
fluenza this fall and winter.
The history of influenza, extending
back over period of 500 years and
recording over 100 epidemics, indi-
Gates that an epidemic usually in
wolves about 40 per cent of the popu-
lation. Recalling the more recent ep-
idemics (that of last year excepted)
the epidemics of 1890, 81 and '92.
and that of 1900, 1901 and 1902 we
had an involvement during the entire
course of these epidemics of perhaps
40 per cent. of the population, pos