Hyder Alaska miner., 1919-10-24
HAS COPPER OUTPUT REACHED
 ZENITH?

United States Geological Survey for last year as guide, we think it may reasonably be- adduced that domestic production of copper reached a max imum in 1918, when shelter output totaled 1908 300 900 pounds, compared with 1886, ,OOO, 900 in 1917, or increase Of IT per cent.
 After allowing for the tremendous output in 1917 and 1913, it is now re- llably estimated that surplus cannot De more than one billion pounds, or ap- proximately six months output at last years level, and that in spite of the fact that the armistfce and later peace stopped the how of renned meLal to europe aud caused q DackIng-up ot prO0isious proportions. let tue estI- mate of one billion pounds in surplus seems to be an ultimate limit and the probabilities are that 1t IS really very cOnsiuelaDIy less, counting refined copper, ulster copper. material in pio- cess or rennIng and stocK Ill hands or IUreIgn smelLers or in transit from for elgn smelters to rennerIes in thls country.
 Under these conditions, which we oeiAeve may saIely De LaKen as ap- proAlmateiy correct, 1t seems very pat ent that the Ieenng ol pesslmism ap- parent tor the past few months, and now Deglnn4ng to lire, was never war ranLed. with peace definitely estab- lIsheu and kurope on the eve Of the greatest reconstruction work in all history, even the best students of the situation will probably fall very far snort ot correct estimates Of the am- ount or copper that will be needed. The question is where will it come rom. The answer seems very piaIn to us. 1t must come from the United otates, and rom foreign mines owned oy citizens of the United States, not only because we hold such a vast pro- portion of the worlds supply, but also because, and this is the main argu- ment, we shall be compelled to finance the greater part of the worlds re- construction and shall natuI ally SUD- ply those commodities in which we are richest.
 | Several weeks ago,when copper met al was selling at the bottom, the ed l tor of MiDinO Trnth in roviowiuO tho situation in New York, ventured the opinion that the position of the metal was basically sound and that the fact was recognized by the biggest operat- ors and shrewdest spectators, who, even then, were loading up on copper stocks and laying plans for acquisition of potential properties. Since then, there has been a nice advance in the price of copper, and We fail to see how any serious recession can be expected, even by the gloomiest gloom" in this country of plenty-practically the only nation on earth that is not bankrupt or seriously bent in financial way.
 It will not be long until the bug-a- boo of heavy surplus will be removed and neither will it be long until the price of copper takes another big jump. It is said by reliable statistic ians that there is no more than thirty years supply of copper in sight in all the world Something may take its place before it has been exhausted, but most people will agree that the world has been pretty we'll combed for big copper deposits and that the price must be forced upward in the absence of any satisfactory substi- ute.
 We are strong optimists upon the copper situation and therefore very naturally, also upon all other branches of the mining industry. Copper min ing has always been the leader and will probably continue to be. As pros perity again overtakes it, so will pros perity, in increasing volume, overtake all other branches. The mining indus try is entering the greatest era in our country's history. At least, that is our opinion and it is not altogether case of the wish being father to the thought. The world needs metals for reconstruction and for specie. We have more of them and more kinds of them than any nation on earth. Why should we not be optimistic? Pessim- ism is impossible-Northwes Mining Truth.