New-York tribune., 1919-07-03
BUSINESS NEWS BUREAU,
Tribune Building
154 Nassau Street
Warns Against
Yokingg Prosperity
With Speculation
Reports to Federal Reserve
Board Give Indications of
Large Output of Goods
and Big Financial Returns

WASHINGTON, July 2.-Warning
against undue speculation is renewed
by the Federal Reserve Board in its
monthly statement. though the busi-
ness outlook is discussed in optimistic
terms.
In nearly all the districts" the
statement reads, "the opinion is enter
tanned that the prospects for sue
eesstul and prosperous year, with very
large output of goods and almost un-
preceden.ed financial returns both to
manufacturers, agriculturists and lab
orers now are positive. The possibility
that speculation may be carried too far
and may exert an injurious influence,
aided and furthered by the existence
of free credit and speculative ten
dencies, appears as the principal off
setting influence in the situation"
Prices Continued to rise throughout
June, according to the statement, and
enormously heavy demands for goods
for export have rendered products in
many lines scarce. In nearly all dis
tricts it was reported business men
had decided they could rely upon heavy
demand and continuously sustained
prices for some time to come, the feel
ing of apprehension entertained early
Z,
and retailers readily entering into large
commitments for fall and winter.
Record Crops in Sight
In many respects the. agricultural
prospects of the early spring are being
more than justified. Wheat, corn, cot
ton, tobacco and Pacific Coast crops
will be harvested in record quantities.
Livestock continues high in price.
A distinct turn for the better in steel
and iron is noted, along with improve
ment in the metal mining industry.
Manufacturing likewise took strong
upward turn during June. Demand for
fine cotton goods exceeds production
Shoe factories are producing at maxi
lapm capacity, while heavy demand
from Europe has drawn off much OF
the available supply. Wool products
are sold ahead for months. Automo-
bile manufacturing is running in many
plants at record levels.
Building shows continuation of the
revival noted in previous months.
Heavy buying of lumber by retailers
has become, general. There is much
trading in houses and business prop
erty.
Labor Well Employed
Commenting on labor conditions. the
statement says:
There is apparently no present con-
dition of unemployment, indeed many
industries report they cannot get the
men they need while wages are fully
up to past levels or higher. The re-
quirements for farm help are absorb
ing surplus labor in practically all
parts of the country. There is some
surplus of unskilled workers in some
centres, but this is not different from
the condition in normal times. No re-
duction in wage scales is now fore
seen.
"One of the principal problems in the
labor situation noted by ,noughtful
observers is the fact that clerks and
Office employees, as we'll as other workers
receiving more or less fixed incomes.
have not yet participated in the adj
vance in wages. Improvement for
hese classes of workers will be neces-
sary if prices are to continue at their
present / evel, but will, of course, add
correspondingly to the cost Of business
to the government.
Returning ,oldiers are being rapidly
and steadily absorbed into business,
and the problem which for a time
ceemed to threaten. in this connection
is now apparently minimlzed in all
directions. From the farming dis
tricts particularly comes the report
that the supply Of labor is scsnty and
likely to prove more so as business
progresses"