The Washington times., 1918-03-31
~ HILLAIRE BELLOC.

~ HIILAIRE BELLOC,
tSOpyrisht by the Tribune ASsociatiOn.)
The great German offensive stln bangs
in the balance as a write There are
three elements which. in spite of all the
IinfOrmation that has come. are still un-
known to US: elements which only the
decision Of the battle viii allow US to
appreciate, and which must determining
the issue Of the great conflict.
The frst OF these Is the rate OF the
enemy losses. We know that he had
already Cby sunday nIEhD had to feed
into his attacking forces far more than
twelve but probably less than eighteen
divisions out OF his reserve, although
only four days Of the great struggle had
then passed. In other words, he had In
four days eaten up in his re-enforce-
nents more than third and nearly a
half ofhis original attacking force. But
we win not know until afterward-per-
hans long after the battle Is ovef-spon
what proportion OF loss he withheld his
divisions and has thrown in fresh men.
This is the nrst and most important TACT
IN the whole struggle. because II lhe
ArefTntn leAUluSG IN AaANr heN1 49,
rant the result which he attains. MS
desperate gamble has been lost. He IS
undertaking a truly gigantic expense IN
blood, pressing his attacks almost with
out regard to cost. and with single
eve to a very rapid decision.
The SECOND element Is TIE defensive
strength Of the British forces, which
has been shown so far by the still un-
broken defending line, and which viii
continue 10 be shown by success IN
keeping the line unbroken and IN
bringing the German drive to grad
ual stop.
The third element is the action which
may be taken with the great allied re-
serye armies. These have not yet begun
70 come into play and are awaiting
their moment for such use as the high
command may think fitting.
Cpon these elements victory VIII
depend.
CharaeterlstIe Of
the naI-Front.
The front which the enemy had
chosen for his attack has. certain
characteristics which We must grasp
before going any further in the dis
eussion OF this, action. for on our un-
derstanding of those characteristics
depends our ability TO comprehend
the whole vast battle.
First--lt is much the widest front
providing for much the most extend
ed opera tions of any chosen for an Of
fensiSe by either side in the course
OF this war. Its whole development
In a straight line was not less than
zs.O9o yards, or somewhat over forty
three miles. Counting the sinuosities
NJ ha fronF fnnre like Nfty
mileA The reason 50 large a sector
was chosen Is that previous expert
ence has shown the futility 10 the at
facking party Of any partial breach
OF the defending line upon a narrow
sector; and. further. that over so
large a stretch OF territory the
changes OF finding some weak place
or places here and there. which might
he utilized to broaden out a narrow
break into a wide rupture were con-
Giderably increased.
Seeond-The ground chosen is the
dryest OF all that held by the British
between the valley OF the Disc and
the North Sea. There is here much
less OF the imped.ment to action
which comes from marshes, flooded
grounds. and the numerous -intersect-
ing streams which characterize the
line above Ypres, for instance. An
exceptional period Of dry weather,
lasting for many weeks. had increased
the value TO the enemy for his offen-
sive OF this natural feature, which.
With the good luck which has be
come proverbial for the Germans in
the matter of weather, as Affecting
both their attack and defense, the
drouth continued during all the first
days OF the attack, and is yet Un-
broken.
We must mention. however, in this
connection, that another feature of
the weather has not been favora BILE
TO him. This is the dense mists. un.
usual in this territory al this time OF
year. Though they may have helped
him in concealing his concentrations.
they have retarded his opportunities