The sun., 1918-11-02

L ntPhoiSahc 49, - - = - - SSo
Democrats -. :. :. .lo9
A Republican House by a comfortable
working majority, Democratic Senate
by o reduced majority. This Is the pre-
diction Of THE Sun, based on careful
sitting OF the estimates of Republican
and Democratic campaign managers
and on Its own careful and painstakins
.investigation OF the political situation In
every State where there Ia a chance Of a
change in the Senate or In a Congress
sional district, .s..
The closing ten days of the campaign
which promised to- be dull and without
much interest, upset the earlier caicula-
: tons OF both parties TO some extent
The Presidents appeal for the election
Of Democratic ma1orities in the Senate
and House. urged repeatedly by his
political advisers, and finally made from
the White House, touched the match to
the powder. and real old fashioned
dEht followed.
The effect of the appeal, to the chagrin
= Of Democratic managers. apparently was
not all that was hoped for, and the reac-
ton produced benefited Republicans more
than candidates OF the Presidents own
political party. Both sides have main
tanned front Of encouragement, and
+, greatest benefit from the Presidents ap.
peal -,
~ Many Democrats VIII Turn.
8" Democratic managers contended that
Independent voters would support Dem
ocratic candidates on account OF the
Presidents appeal. Republicans insist
and have had ample documentary evil
dsnce in the form OF sheaves Of letters
70 prove II. that the net effect OF the
President's appeal. and its resultant lift
Ing the lid on POLITICAL discussion. has
: boen to close the ranks of Republicans
VII bring out large Republican vote
"a Tuesday, and turn to the Republican
side many Democrats who were dis
Eusted because the President made his
partisan appeal while Chief Executive
!. Of the nation. an appeal which they be-
lieve might be construed to impugn the
entire loyalty OF the Republicans IN
Congress, who have supported all 1.-THE
var measures more wholeheartedlyf than
have the Democrats. ;.
The Senate as II now stands shows
+ 81 Democrats and A. Republicans. Sc
many States have to be left in the
doubtful column In estimating the prob
able result OF the election next Tuesday
that the greatest gain the Republican ms
can make, based on the information In
the hands OF THE Sun, is a net gain OF
I'VE Senators. The net gain would give
the Republicans majority OF two
votes In the Senate. When 4: Is con-
pidered that the Vice-President. as pre-
siding officer OF that chamber, can vote
to break a tie, As Republican Senators
would give the Democrats a majority or
account OF Vice-President Marshall's
vote. and they could thereby organize
us Senate.
"a where Republicans May Gain.
Indications are that the Republican,
will gain one seat In the Senate in each
Of these States: New Hampshire. Della.
ware, Illinois and Kansas. On the other
hard the Republicans have hot fights
on their hands TO hold Republican Sena.
tors In the following States; South Da.
kota. Nebraska. Rhode Island. New Mex.
ftco and WestsNirginia. The Republicans
Are most anxious about South Dakota
and feel more Certain Of holding West
Virginia than any of the Ave. The Re
publicans are positive that they will hold
Michigan. where Henry Ford Is tn,
Democratic candidate. ..---.
In States where Democratic Senator:
arc seeking reelection Republicans put
down Nevada as probable gain fol
them In Montana the Republicans hg.
ure they have better than an ever
chance. In Idaho they are certain Of
the reelection of Senator Borah and fig
.ure that they have an even chance Of
Beating Nugent, thus gaining one.
In Kentucky developments have made
Il appear that the Republicans have ar
sven chance to win in the, Senate fight
In Missouri the Republicans have less
than an even chance of beating former
Governor Folk for election, and IN Colo
RADIO there IL only an. outside chance fol
3 Republican victory.
The Nevada fight involves as the Re
publican candidate E. r. Roberts. now
In the House from that State. He hal
been elected to the House repeatedly and
has large personal vote throughout the
State He was reelected to the House
two years ago in. spite OF large Demo
cratic majorities for Governor and fol
she President
In Montana the situation was eomplI.
Gated for a time by the fact that Jean
nette Rankin, now In the House. who
was defeated In the primaries for thu
Republican Senatorial candidacy. Is run
ming independently. For q time Repub
Ncans were downoast, but for the pas
month Il has been apparent, that tn,
vote Miss Rankin will poll will be large
iy from among the Bolshevik element ir
the State. which never would vote for 6
Republican, and that her candidacy II
pulling strength away from Senator
Wash. the Democratic candidate for re-
election.
In Idaho the drift has been TOWARD
me Republicans, and while the election
/, OF Senator Borah for the long term Il
practically assured there is also an ex
osllent chance that Senator Nugent
Democrat and candidate for the shor
tern to succeed himself, will be beaten
Unless there Is decided drift
toward the Republicans Missouri ant
Colorado win be won by the Demo
Gratis. ....... o.
How senate May stand. e.. .
Tho net result In the Senate IL Re
) pubilcans gain as indicated one sea
each lin New Hampshire, Delaware. II
Nnois, Kansas, Nevada and Montana
. hold New Jersey, New Mexico. Yves
Virginia and Michigan. with tho Demo
REats winning In South Dakota, Ne
saska. Rhode Island. Idaho. Kentucky
ssouri and Colorado. will be 70 linz
Lsnats ms follows. Republicans, ~
az Gratis, 10. on all the Indication