New-York tribune., 1918-10-02
Military Aspects of
Bulgaria's S Surrender a
BY Frank RI. Simonds
tcopyrlsht. 1918, Now York Tribune Inc,


achieved, more political developments
must follow.
On the military side the first objective
must be the physical separation Of Tur-
key and the other Central Powers. This
can be substantially realized only when
Allied troops have restored the Danube
front between the Rumanian frontier and
the Bosnian boundary. Communication
between Berlin and Constantinople must
be Interrupted by cutting the Belgrade
Sofia link of the Berlin-Vienna- Constan-
tinople railway and commanding the
Danube River at the Iron Gates.
Bulgaria has surrendered and agreed
to turn over her railways to the Allies,
but German and Austrian troops still
control the vital links in the line from
Germany and Austria to Turkey. DIES
percy and his armies must, therefore,
push northward from Usl1ub at oncs and
seze Nish. When they have taken this
town they will have cut the railway line
vital to. Teutonic- Turkish communica-
tions. This is the first step.
Nish down the Morava Valley to Bel
grade. When this has taken place the
Danube route will be commanded and
the Allies will in addition open direct
communications with Rumania And
just as soon as the Allies are in touch
with Rumania we may rest assured this
nation, rcsentful of it's treatment at Ger
man hands, mulcted and mutilated, will
reenter the war on our side.
Thus will be restored the Southern
front. Austria Hungary will be threat
ened with invasion both from Serbia and
from Rumana. An instant demand will
be made upon German and Austrian
reserves to meet the new danger, and
weakening the Western and Italian
fronts.
In this way, and with very short de-
lay, the Balkan campaign will begin to
have direct and enormous influence upon
the Western campaign. The Germans
will be compelled to retire in the West to
shorten their line and get reserves for
use in the new field. We may then
reckon the Balkan front as no longer q
"sdeshow," but become a detail in the
main performance. To save Austria
Hungary from invasion, which spells
ruin, Germany must get out of France
and Western Belgium
But there is second aspect to the
Balkan military problem. The surren-
der Of Bulgaria opens landward route
to Constantinople. Once he has restored
the Danube front, freed Turkey and
opened communications with Rumania,
dEsperey can send troops eastward
along the Salonica- a-Constantinople rail
way and attack Turkish defences at the
Dardanelles from the shore. Such an
attack would instantly isolate Gallipoli.
1t was the line of attack advised by the
Greek General Staff in 1915.
We may then see in the winter months,
when operations to the north are impos-
sible, new joint army and naval attack
upon the Dardanelles and successful
reduction of the door to the Turkish CAPT
tai. What is more probable is that the
mere threat Of this attack, once Turkey
has been completely isolated, will bring
that Turkish surrender already regarded
as probable.
In sum, on the military side the next
operations must be directed toward
breaking the German control of the COM
muncations between the Central Powers
<oI,I IL.
munications between Rumania and her
old allies and thereafter attacks both
upon Austria and Turkey designed to
compel both to consent to separate peace
We may expect Turkey to surrender.
once she is isolated. We may expect Ru-
mania to reenlist, once she is sure of
solid support from the Western nations.
Finally, there remains the question of
Austria. Unless she is instantly guar
anteed against invasion from the south
by German aid collapse at Vienna is
inevitable. But such a guarantee can
be given by Germany only if German
armies are withdrawn behind the Meuse
from Liege to Verdun. The liberation
of Northern France and of Belgium
must, therefore, follow automatically
upon the logical exploitation of the re-
cent Balkan victories and the consequent
Bulgarian surrender There is now
only one front; unity of command has
achieved unity of action everywhere from
the Holy Land to the North Sea.
In the Balkans the first crisis to be
expected must come when the Germans
have made their decision as to where they
will defend the Constantinope- Vienna
railway. They must defend it between
Nish and Uskub, and they must rally
troops to d. this within few days. If
they fail then they will lose contact with
Turkey, surrender military mastery of