New-York tribune., 1918-06-06
The Allies
Opportunity
Andre Chkradame, in The Atlantic
Monthly
TINE present status Of the oppoains
forces may be summarized thus.

TIME present status Of the oppoains
forces may be summarized thus:
Forces of Pan-Germany.-The mohs.
liable forces directed from Berlin, reckoned
on the maximum basis of 20 per cent Of the
population, are to-day about 28,0o0.ooo
men, made up Of two elements:
(a) About 100000 troops whom q.
German Staff can regard as reliable: Cen
mans, Magyars with the reservation ina,.
Gated above). Bulgars and Turks.
(b) Some 100000 Slav and Latin trooo.
incorporated in the armies of Pan-German,
IN opposition to their real sentiments. a.
whom 100000 may be led to withdraw il f.
certain propaganda and a certain condition
OF affairs shall be created by the Entente
In reality, therefore, 100000 Germans
and pro-Germans must be ready to respond
to all military necessities, to keep in their
ranks, by sheer terrorism, 100000 soldiers
who are there solely by dint of force and
compuision, and to stand guard over vast
expense of territory, the population Of
which, in at least half of the Superficial
area of Pan-Germany, is hostile to them.
Forces of the Entente-To avoid an e..
aggerated estimate, these forces are esti-
mated without regard to the smaller Allies
or to Japan-whose intervention is at least
probable-or to the colonial contineents
Furthermore, the basis of calculation will
be Is per cent of the population of thu
European Allies. We have, then:
France (15 per cent of 40, 1000, ,0OO).. 6,ooo,ooo
Great Britain (15 per cent of 49,
uUU,UUU) .................... 69000O0
Italy (15 per cent Of 36,00O,o0o).. 5,4o0,0oe
Total ..................... Is, ,300MA
To this number we must add the Ame,
lean contingents. 1t is evident, in view of
the tonnage problem, that they will never
be able to arrive in Europe in numbers
proportioned to the population of the Unit
ed States. 1t will be very great achieve
ment If 100000 American combatants can
be sent to Europe, with all the essential
materials and supplies. Let US assume that
that number is both possible and probable.
In that case the moblizable Allied forces
which can be expected to play an active part
IN Europe will amount to 1s,3O0,00O Euro.
pean Allies and 100000 Americans-my
20,cOO,O00 in round numbers
But the situation of the Allies would b.
completely transformed if they should, IL
their turn, like the Germans, resort to
strategy of the political sciences; for i.
would enable them to exploit to their sd
vantage the tremendous sources of weak
ness that exist in the very heart of Pan
Germany.
Indeed, in that case, the Allies could sys
tematlcally arm, by the aerial route a part
of the 14,000000 t-Pan- Germans, non
modified, in Central Pan Germany, and
thus bring about an insurrection in the re-
glons traversed by the vital strategic COM
municatlons of Pan-Germany. Secondly, they
hxyv, t-s..
about state of affairs, both moral and ms.
terlal, which would enable the s,0000m
troops embodied against their will in the
German armies, to revolt in their turn.
Assuming this form of strategy to b
adopted, the 100000 Germans and pro
Germans would have to face the hostile A.
ton, active or passive, of 20,000000 AllN
troops, 100000 of their own troops, in r.
volt or on strike, and 100000 possible u.
surgent civilians, or 100000 in all.
The 23,OO0,000 anti Pan Germanist won.
en- IN Pan-Germany are for the mos
part compelled to work on the land OK u
the munltion factories. AS they represent
by no means negligible force, if the prop
aganda were effective, they could be H.
duced to strike. In fact, in certain distrien |
which know we'll the women are capsbh
OF playing very useful part in revolt
Thus, the 100000 Germans and pr
Germans would have to face widely vsf5
ing but combined hostile forces of 65.0oas
600 human beings (42,0o0,oO0 men and Sf
100000 women).
To sum up: the purely military strster
leaves 2o,ooo.ooo Allies face to face vi,
2e,o0ooOO Germans, pro-Germans 80
troops enslaved by them.
The strategy of the political scieneee,
would transform the situation, for it woua
subject 100000 Germans and pro-Gsf
mans to the submergent action Of the ene-
lessly diverse enveloping powers Of 65,0V
600 persons, Of whom AZ 100000 are alrssH #
in Pan-Germany.