The Colorado statesman., 1918-01-12

| American armies VIII nave UP hEAlnhl
them when, late next year, they have
attracted to themselves the bulk or at
least the best of the enemy forces,
the same rate of wastagc may be as
sumed for the period between now
and the end of the campaign next year
on say November i. On November l,
| 1915 If the average remains the same,
| the destruction of German man power
proceeds at the rate of 10000 month,
the number of Germans permanently
put out of action will have increased
by 1862 900 since May this year.
Will Call Boys of Seventeen.
On November /, 1918, however, the
class of 1920-the German boys now
seventeen-but then between eighteen
and nineteen-will have been Incor-
porated in the enemy armies. 1t may
be remarked in passing that the ex-
perlence of all armies proves that to
put boys of seventeen into training
does not pay, from a military point of
view; they are not strong enough to
stand it. 1t is perfectly safe, then, to
assume that Germany no matter how
desperate win not call out her class
of 1920 before next year. BY Novem-
Der, 1918, these 100000 boys must be
added to the figures given above of
the present strength of the German
armies.
From the total present combatant
strength must be subtracted 1,36S,0OO
men, the total losses Germany must
expect to suffer by November, 1918,
q IL, I,n tn that
strength must be added 100000 for
the class of 1920. The German armies,
then, will have declined approximately
| S6S,OO0 men, on November 1, 1918 from
their strength on the first Of last May.
To Face 5,e71 600 Men.
This loss of strength will fall upon
the copbatant forces alone. The l.
10000 old and unfit troops on duty
in the rear will remain as they were.
The 100000 fighting men possessed
by Germany today will have dwindled
to 4,232, 600. Add to these the 1,739,
600 non-combatant troops and the fig
ure of 5,971 900 men is attained, the
total land strength of the German en-
pire which it was said at the begin
ming of this story would be in the
fields at the opening of the third, or
American, phase of the war.
Now this is frankly an estimate
which must allow for considerable
margin of error. The figures of the
number of divisions in the fields are
officially correct; the number of Ger
man net casualties, accepting their
own lists, is known to within small
fraction; but the chance of error
comes in the calculation of reserve
troops.
have shown these figures, however,
to a high military authority who said,
81 have gone over them carefully, and
1 think you are safely within margin
of error of Is per cent; the only really
incalcuable point at which you had
to guess was whether the rate of cas-
ualties for the next year and a half
will be the same as it has been in the
past"
1t may be assumed that while the
American armies during the year 1918
will doubtless be able to take their
fair share of the fighting, they will
not be in sufficient numbers to do most
of the work. as the British are doing
it now, until the end of the year at
least.
American Phase in 1919.
But at the beginning of the sixth
summer campaign of the war, in the
spring of 1919, there is no doubt that
the american phase" will have COM
menced in earnest. Neither the French
nor British armies will then be in
position to carry out olfensives on a
large scale. They will not have the
men. America will have them. The
American troops and the allies will be
faced, in the spring of 1919, by 4,OOO,-
600 German fighting men, not count
ing the old and unfit in the rear.
All this may sound very improb-
able. 1t is possible, and l think prob
able, that the war will not go on to
the bitter end. There is grave doubt
whether a campaign of 1918 Will be
fought to a finish, whether the Amer
ican phase" of 1919 viii ever arrive.
For the sake of the world it is to be
devoutly hoped that it will not.
But the point is that Germany will
not surrender until she knows she is
beaten; and America must remember
that Germany will be able to keep A.
100000 men for the campaign of 1919.
Germany will not yield unless America
begins now and trains armies capable
of smashing those 100000 men. Not
all the ships and money in the world
will prevent this war from dragging
on to an inglorious draw unless Amer
lean soldiers in sufficient numbers are
prepared to deal the finishing blow.
That is the moral of these calcula-
tions, and indeed it is the reason why
they are permitted publication.
Strennth of Teuton Allies.