The Washington herald., 1918-04-07

4
All the German optimism, all the
Allied pessimism. IL based very large
iIy on the considerations put forward
\ above Having set down the German
case fairly, as interpreted from a
mass Of reports and documents from
enemy countries and from the enemy
press, I will now show how. IN the
opinion Of the best judges here. we
have no real reason to be cast down
at the fallacious arguments by which
the enemy keeps up his courage. Tn
fortunately, the censorship does not
permit the publication Of exact ig-
ures regarding either United States
troops or the submarine and tonnage
situations, but Il can be said that the
German calculations regarding both
are hopelessly wrong.
| II Is the detection OF Russia that
makes the sky at the moment look
dark. However serious the peace in
+. the east may be, IL Is not so impor-
tant as the alarming figures given
above would indicate. It is true that
Russia, Just before the revolution,
had 8, 10000 soldiers. but rot had AL
ready set in throughout the army:
millions of men were unarmed, and
already in the winter OF 1gl6-f7 the
German general staff. correctly EauF-
ing the impotence OF their OppoHauLs,
had commenced transferring gO0u di-
visions from the east 70 the west, TO-
placing them by battered units.
When the revolution broke out and
the revolutionary virus resulted IN
half the Russian soldiers going home
to seek land, Germany commenced
combing out her sixty-dve divisions in
the east. Drafts OF the youngest ana
strongest soldiers were called for
from each regiment and sent 10 mn
the gaps caused in the west by the
bloody fighting on the Aisne. at Ar
ras and I'm Flanders. These drafts
were continued throughout the whole
year. A few first-clRss fighting units
were kept in the east. and il IL these
which have just performed prOdiEles
Of marching, against no proposition,
and compelled the Russians 10 sign a
disgracefuI peace. But the reserves
Of first-class German troops on the
east front. at the moment when Teace
was signed. are calculated here al not
more than six or seven divisions, or
about 5000 fighting men.
Therefore the elaborate figures rum
ming into millions which the Germans
put forward TO show how they will
overrun the Entente are ''eyewssh.'
as the English put IL, and nothing
more. Had Russia not gone TO pieces
the war could have been won IA l9T-.
but the collapse Of Russia took place
not when Trotsky signed peace, hut
year before, and the successful re-
sistance put up by the enemy on the
west front in 1917 was solely dus {"
the good troops he was able 20 bring
from the Russian front. But Germany
cannot have It both ways. She has
used up in Artois and Flanders her
best men from the east: she long ago
discounted the peace with Russia.
Poor Soldiers Sent West.
America is coming on. and a-aii.s'
these fresh young soldiers Germany
can bring only tke drrEs OF her al
mics. retained in Russia as not good
enough 70 night in the west. ancteul
landstrumers sno 3andwehr- II Is
true that from 5O."1J to l.gIR.npp Of
these poor soldiers can hc, aud am,
being, sent to the west. but at best
they can only be used 10 hold quiet
sectors which the good German divi-
sions do the nEhtinE in the battle
zones. The military situation on the
west front is serious. for until Amer
ica Is ready. the Entente has no fresh
men to put in. But the foregoing con-
siderations will show how far from
the facts are the alaTmist views taken
in some quarters and assiduously cir
culated. and perhaps believed by the
Germans.
The entry OF America has meant
food and more supplies for her Al
lies. has established their credits, and
enabled real blockade to be en-
forced against Germany for the first
time: and I have seen piles Of sta
tistics regarding shortage Of vital raw
materials in Germany caused during
the past year by the stopDaEe Of leak
ages from Scandinavia and Holland
that could not he prevented. before
/ 1917. without running the risk Of Jrou-
BILE with Washington.
The submarine situation is not 50
I bad as the Germans would have the
world believe. II is serious enough.
! hut the combined inventive brains OF
England and Amreica have brought
I into being devices that the admiralty
confidently expects will decrease The
J sinkincs.
PeSSimiSm about Tonnage.
cerninE the construction Of new tom
mage in England and America may
have their value IN squirting on work
ers TO greater efforts. but f-Urcs
which 7 am not allowed to quote
would indicate that unless tho sink
inEs increase Europe can hold OFT
until the Germans are beaten. u VII
he a hard pull. and literally every
thing depends upon American shW-
: builders, for the yards here can do
no more than they are doing lf
sober view must he taken Conu,TUr-
the military prospects or the Eul'rIn.
peSsimists will be nearer the truln u
they cOntine their fOrobodinCs IN o."
tonnage problem rather than tho ha'-
Uefeld position.
Political calculations are nor o. '.-
cult than military or naval .i-r
sionS, because opinions wary moe
widely. II seems 10 tho writer % ~
all the military success gained 'r
Germany in Russia, all the trans,
of troops 10 the west front. a'T
amount of food and raw material ut
can possibly be wrung from the T.us-
trate and starving east. do not wish
much in the balance against the GHn-
ger caused TO the German and Nus-
trian military autocracics hy thu Eus-
sian revolution.
How Colossal Living Flag Was