Evening star., 1918-02-24
BREST-LITOVSK PRINCIPLES
LIKELY TO HAVE FAR-REACFING
EFFECT IN EUROPE'S HISTORY.


same way the element in Germany
and it is ever increasing-whichd desires
peace and does not believe the western
victory possible will be fortified by the
revelation that the prolongation OF the
struggle is due not to the necessity Sf
defending Germany. but to the appetite
OF the military party for new conQuests 9
in the west and new victories in the
field. This military party is sufficiently
strong to have its way at the moment,
but another Verdun might shake 1to
power thoroughly.
Yet the Austrian phase is far mere
important at the moment. Austria wae
forced into the war By the fear of ulta-
mate Russian domination not alone Of
the Balkanss but of the Slav popula-
ton OF Austria. Her defeats in the
opening years OF the war compelled
her to surrender first her military and
then her political independence. Only
with German help could she repel the
Russian, the Rumanian and the Italian
While she needed this help she had to
pay for it in obedience to Berlin.
Today the several perils have van
ished. Russia is eliminated, not Tor .
moment. but probably for many years
forever If the Ukrainian state endures
and develops as 1t may develop. Ru-
mania has become q helpless fragment:
Whatever happens now, the King ox
Rumania, deprived of Russian AID. re-
moved from all communication with the
allies must bend his knee to the HApoe
burgs Hemmed in between UkrAtnae,
Bulgaria and Hungary, Rumanta na9
no chance to resist now; nor IL 1t easy
to see how she can again escape from
the domination of the Hapsburgs. what.
ever semblance Of political freedom sne
may retain.
And Serbia Now a Mere Mans.
As for Serbia, it has become q mama
a thing that was. 1t cannot be restor.
ed to any cotemporary strength even tt
the map of 1914 be reconstructed, ana
without Russian aid Serbia was never .
real danger. Indeed, until the change
of dynasties after the shocking aseAS.
sination of the last of the Obrenoutche9.
a few years ago, Serbia was a vassal OF
the Hapsburgs, and it would seem II
might become such again. In any event.
Austria has nothing more to fear from
southern Slavs. This issue has been
settled. for the moment at least. by the
Russian collapse and the conquest OF
Serbia
Finally, Italy is no longer an aggres-
sor. marching upon Trieste. 1t fs Ven. !
ice. not Trieste, which is in danger. and.
now that the perils on all other fronts
have been abolished, Austria may wen
deem herself able to deal with Italy.
Even the French and British armies
now on the pave line may be recalled
if the German attack in the west makes
material progress In any event, Itai-
ian approach to Trieste is not to bo
feared at present.
Austria Has Nothing to Gain.
Accordingly. Austria, having achieved
all that she hoped TO achieve by this
war. both in abolishing immediate and
eventual perils. can gain nothing by
a prolongation of the struggle. She 10
rGad for RI haC doCi
annex territories. She has agreed with
the Ukrainians to preserve the Old
RuSso-A1strian line in Galicia, tfe
Polish settlement will create a Poland,
technically, at least. outside Austrian
frontiers, while, with respect to Serbia
and Italy, Austria has no appetite for
anneXations. Therefore the Austrians
are not likely long to bear the bur-
dens of prolonged conflict. merely to
enable the Germans to hold BRUSSELS
or Lille. to annex the Belgian coal
fields or the French iron districts.
Least of all are they likely, in the
face of domestic protest and incipient
disorder to dispatch Austrian troops TO
the western front and pay blood tax
for German territorial ambitions. On
the contrary, Austria seems likely more
and more to follow an independent poll
icy and to escape from complete Ger
man domination. Her necessities grow
ing out of the Russian menace made
her the partner of Germany IN peace
and in war but these necessities have
disappeared and for her Prussia be-
comes. if not a peril, an object OF dis-
trust and jealousy as she has a,N ays
been since the days of Frederick the
Great save in time of danger.
1t would be foolish TO blink the rack
that much that has been agreed to at
Rres- -Litovsk will endure ukraini9
cannot be abolished by amy later alt,eu
victory, nor can il be easily torn from
it's natural adhesion to the central pow
ers Poland may. as a result OF iater
allied victo-iaE gain a greater measure
Of independence, and an extension OF
territory but it is not easy to believe
that allied victories will be of such az
mensions as to compel Germany to ceAe
Posen and the Danzig strip of west
Prussia to this new state. and wfthouS
both Poland will hardly achieve its nat
, ural rights.
On the other hand. it may be that the
Lithuanian monstrosity may fall, that
the German people Will not continue 70
fight on when they perceive pence inn
possible as long as they hold Riga ana
Libau. Yet there is. at the least. fair
possibility that this arrangement may
also endure. since the lands anected are
beyond the reach of allied fleets or ar
mics and Russian disorders are such
that Russia can neither hep nor be.
come welcome ally for the people OF
these provinces who must be at last az
fearful of the Trotzky-f.enine war upon
capital, the bolshevik class war. as OF
the German domination. which II "
brings abuses of a certain R.nd VIII
bring order and material Prosperity.
In sum, therefore. ! believe We
have seen at Brest-Litovsk one OF the
great and historic deliminations OF
Europe history. some portion-some
conside~a BILE portion-of which is des-
tined to endure and all of which may
constitute q important fact in Slav-
dom as did the treaty of LuYeville IN
the Gerrn.nic world. 1t may BE the last
will and testament of the empire of
Peter the Great, which Trotzky and
Lenine accepted but did not sign at
Brest- -Li:ovsk. The western world has
rightly discounted the military bearing
OF this arrangement for long time.
1t will not be great. since the actual
collapse of Russia as a military factor
occurred long ago. Far more important
is the matter of food. At no distant
date Germany and Austria will es-
cape from the shadow of famine. This
is the worst phase of all for the allies.
But before they can accept this new
and enormous expansion of Germany
the allies must fight. and the Germans
seem prepared to force the issue in one
more western offensive.