New-York tribune., 1918-02-25
May Decide Defensive
Policy To Be the
Wisest Move
See No Profit
Now i'm the West
Seizure and Reorganization
Of Russia Is Their
Main Idea
[ Staff Correspondence

StUu uCUTTeSpOUUeHCC
LONDON, Feb 23.-Two years ago
Germany's last effort-the Verdun Of
fensive-was we'll under way. All Eu-
rope watched the gigantic struggle with
high hopes and mixed emotions. Franco
held and saved Paris, and then came
Eaig's drive on the Somme, which again
put the enemy on the defensive.
Here the enemy remains to this day
With greatly augmented forces at his
disposal, because of the disappearance
of his Eastern menace, attention has
been riveted TO the West, and practi-
cally the only difference of opinion has
been the question just which sector
Germany would strike first.
4 New Viewpoint
But there are few military students
who believe the enemy will continue on
the defensive in the West, except so
far as an offensive move might
strengthen his defensive position. They
reason that the Central Powers have
abandoned their hope, of territorial
acquisitions or huge indemnities in the
West; that their only expectations of
realizing profits from the war are
grounded on the belief they can seize
and reorganize Russia: that an unsuc-
cessful offensive in the West would be
followed by reaction on the part of
the German people, while defensive
policy would permit the German mill
tarists to continue to cry the Central
Powers are fighting against aggression
and invasion.
Cnderestimates United States
In further support of this view is
the fact that Germany still has con-
ndence in the U-boats' ability to
weaken the Allies, that Germany con-
tinues TO underestimate the military
power Of America. and that Germany's
hopes of obtaining large quantities of
food and minerals from the Ukraine
have been raised high.
a military writer in "The Westmin-
ster Gazette" puts it thus:
!, Inc truth appears to be the enemy
has come to regard his Western
chances IN an offensive as problemati
cal, 10 say tFS least. But he Just as
certainly regards his chances on the
defensive as thoroughly good"
FROM the North Sea to the Alps both
sldes nave exceeded all previous per-
Iorrnances IN the number and size of
Inc IN sallles into the others trenches.
ne air scouts and photocraphers
have been more active and darin@p lptic,S than .
ever before. A long period of fna
weather has been followed by rain and
nigh wind, which has prevented aerial
Ieconnolssance. But it will be recalled
one Verdun drive began in snow
storm. '''o"-
World Soon to Know
Whether the enemy has elected the
o1ehSlve or the defensive policy in
une west should be known within a
very few days. This is an occasion
when time is on the Allied side. Colo
nel Gaedke. the military expert of
the "Bremer Burger Zeitung." writes.
we hear that an army of mannuvra
is to be formed. If we translate this
INTO plain language, it means simplv
beng IN ignorance of the enemv's
plans. The Entente will accumulate
moplle reserve to use as required
on one or more fronts. 1t Is a new
name for an old thing. This step
Woulu mean certain confirmation Of
reports in foreign newspapers of an
attack by the enemy: the Italians in
Italy or the French and English in
the West 49,
Each feels his own territory pri-
marlly threatened, a position we can
easily understand. Each, therefore.
wishes to see the forces Of the United
States at his side, the arrival Of which
is constantly announced and again and
again postponed
occasional rumors also reach us of
the enemy's offensive in the spring.
AS we are not in the secret of the
enemy plans, we must also reckon with
the possibility of this. For in war it
Is not only a question of what we con.
slder probable, but also of what the
enemy consider promising or advisable.
He may, like MacMahon, before the
marcn on Sedan, be forced by con-
slderatlons which are not purely mil
itary"
Want to Break Morale
After picturing the economic condi-
tlons in England, France and Italv in
far from favorable colors, Gaedke
says:
Il have always held the view that
great decisions by land must break tho
enemy's will to war; whether it will
be done by sea also, God and Beatty
alone know. | think | may all the
more hold this view, because the enemy
obviously is preparing with all his
might for land war in the spring. Only
when the decision of fate falls against
them there will they bow to it. Great
defeats make scarcity at home less en-
durable than it would otherwise be.
Here factors come in which might have
great influence on the strength and
VIII. When hopes are silent, the
stomach calls all the louder"