New-York tribune., 1918-07-25


IA American counter offensive we
- are entering a third and eX-
tremely interesting phase of the present
BATTLE The German phase ended one week
ago, when, after five days Of attack, the
German blow was effectually parried
and the Allies passed to the offensive
on the Aisne- Marne front. The sec
ond or Allied phase covers the coun-
ter thrust and its immediate conse-
quences, leading to a German retirement
and a severe local reverse following the
general and wider defeat in the first
phase.
In the new phase now opening the
great question is raised: VIII Foch keep
the initiative which he has manifestly
wrested from Ludendorff or will he, fol-
lowing the course of Diaz in the recent
Piave struggle, return to a defensive
campaign after he has exploited to the
uttermost his local successes in the
Marne salient?
On the answer to the question turns
the future course Of the campaign Of
1918 To go back to the First Battle
of the Marne, Joffre first stopped the
German advance below the Marne, then
returned to the offensive and forced
Moltke to retire behind the Asne.
Finally, while the Germans were seeking
to resume their main thrust and again
advance to the south, Joffre began a
series of turning movements between the
Disc and User rivers which compelled
Moltke to abandon his own plans and
rush to the protection of his imperiled
flank
We had then series of battles, first
about Montdidier, then about Arras and
finally about Ypres, in all of which the
Germans, still under the constraining in
huence Of the great French soldiers
strategy, struggled to regain the often
sive and resume their effort to dispose
of French armies before Russian inter-
vention became effective. In the end these
failed IN the mud and fogs of the User
and about Ipres, and the German lost
the initiative of the West front for near
~ q year and half, regaining it Onlv
with the Verdun campaign and losing it
once more when the Battle of the Somme
opened.
The advantage of the initiative we
have seen clearly indicated in recent
months in which the German has Dos
sessed it and used it to rain blows upon
Allied positions, choosing the time and
place of the attack and prohting by the
incidental surprise and superiority of
numbers at the decisive point Con-
demned to the defensive by an inferioritv
OF numbers due to Russian collapse and
the time needed to bring up American
reinforcements, the Allies have paid a
price in local defeats and in lost terri
tory.
But to-day Foch must have nearly as
many divisions on hand as Ludendorff:
certainly his forces are as strong in COM
parison to Ludendorff's as were Joffres
to Moltkes after the Marne, and he has
by successful battle of arrest, followed
by brilliant counter thrust, wrecked
the German plans, disorganized their
armies on a wide front and passed to an
offensive which is still gaining ground
and exacting a high price alike in Ger
mans killed and captured and in German
reserves consumed in staving off dis
aster and rescuing an imperilled army.
In this situation Foch may, if he feels
strong enough and the situation seems
to him sufficiently promising repeat the
Jotfre strategy and strike still another
blow elsewhere before Ludendorff can
recover from his present defeat. This
would compel the German commander