The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1918-10-02
no Hold Austria She Will
Have to Send Forces to
the East.
RISKS NAY BE INCREASED
Sidebotham Believes Northern
France and Western Belgium
Will Re Sacrificed.


Europe,
Special Gable Despatch to The srS from the ,
London Times Serrice.
Copvrioht, 1918: oil rights reserped. |
LONDON. Oct. 1-On Monday there
was a council at German headquarters
which the Emperor and the Crown
Prince attended. II may be worth while
70 try to look at the military situation
as II presented itself to that council.
What will, the Germans do: Rather.
what can they do? There have been many
critical meetings at German headouar-
ters before. but none to compare with
This For the first time during the war
Germany is faced with defeat. The
nearest approach to the present situa-
ton was in the autumn of 1916, when
Rumania entered the war. But the stu
alton then was not 40 critical, the only
question related to the margin OF safety
that could be left in the west In order
for Germany TO have her way fully IN
the east.
Now there Is no margin of safety in
.he west For the first time in the war
the west and east fronts are crumbling
simultaneously. That Bulgaria Is out of
The war is intrinsically the least Of Ger
,rany's misfortunes. Bp,garia's defec-
ton cuts Turkey OF from the chance OF
German aid, and also opens the posi-
bity of our gaining access to the Black
Sea for our submarines. and for closer
allied communication with anti-German
elements in the east.
Threat Against Austria.
Most important of all Is the direct
threat against the southern frontier or
Austria; one that will either make her
seek peace on our terms or weaken her
armies on the Italian front Even In the
worst event, we shall have(added new
front-a southern front-fo those which
the enemy, with his rapidly declining
man power, will have TO defend.
In the latter event the whole OF Ger
n,any's eastern policy will tumble to
ruins It Is hardly possible to exag-
gerate the gravity OF the blow that has
been struck against Germanys war aims,
OF late she has been relying on the east
10 compensate her for prospective losses
IN the west Now the east Is slipping
rapidly away and failure looms In the
west
The recent widely quoted editorial In
ror,rderts was something more coherent
that n cry OF despair. Its exhortations
70 Germans to hold fast and Its picture
Of ruin that would overwhelm Germany
II they did not meant just this Never
mind what Is happening in the east. Let
Imperialism is bankrupt. What we must
think of now Is protecting our hearths
and homes.
When views like these are allowed to
appear in German newspapers We may
safely conclude that they are held by
somebody Of Importance.
One view, therefore. that might have
been taken at Mondays council IS tha'
Germany should cut her losses in the
east and confine her energies to the west.
This view will be supported by the COM
mercial jingoes of Westphalia, who sup
ported the invasion of Belgium for the
sake of commercial gains 1t promised.
They now. are doubtless worried. and
nothing would keep them in line 50 well
as the promise Of protection against in
vasion.
Risks May He Increased.
II may be doubted whether this view
would commend Itself to the council.
badly as Germany has been hit One
' can hardly see the German Government
sacrificing everything, including its al
lance with Austria, and settling down
20 a passive defence OF its own frontiers.
< Is more probable that the risks i'll
the west will be increased In order to
lupish Bulgaria and TO attempt to save
some OF the eastern ambitions.
II is true that Bulgaria has doubtless
asked assistance from Germany before
this and been refused, and that refusal
certainly influenced her decision. But
tlat means that Germany never sus-
pected the allied victories in Macedonia
would develop as they have done. She
never dreamed Bulgaria would so over.
and now that she has done SO Germanys
policy may change.
II only for the sake OF her hold on
Austria she may think II worth while
10 throw ten or twelve good divisions
, into this front II she does the thing
can be done, but at price that VIII be
the wholesale evacuation OF France and
Belgium west OF the Mouse. BY halvins
her western frontier she might find men
20 bolster tho Austrian res stance and
AZ the same time increase her defensive
resistance against the allied attacks.
In a sentence the alternatives before
tie council were TO throw over the east
or throw over the invaded provinces of
France and Belgium west OF the Heuse.
The decision between them Is difficult
and one that sets up all sorts Of cross
currents in German political. military
and civil circles. One Is inclined TO
think the council will prefer the second
alternative. At the same time there
PROBABLY will be some species of sham
political reform in Germany to please
the people at homo and to impress
America, II America Is in a state OF
mind TO be impressed, which is more
than doubtful.