davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
Ludendorf Plans
Another Great Blow

Now, it is essential to avoid undue
optimism and equally necessary to avoid
exaggeration. The Germans still have
a slight advantage in numbers on the
line or available for active service. They
will preserve that advantage for a few
weeks more, but will lose any numerical
superiority some time in August. There
after, if our troops continue to go to Eu
rope at the present rate-that is, some
half million every two months-the bal
ance will swing sharply in our favor,
But few if any of the troops which reach
Europe after the middle Of September
can be used in the present campaign
We may conclude, then, that the Ger
mans, knowing that the Americans have
sent enough troops to Europe to equal
ize the situation by mid-August, viii
make their next offensive some time be
fore this change occurs. We NAV cen
clude that Ludendorff is putting the fin
shing touches upon the organization of
a final attack which shall equal that of
March 81. | do not believe that he can
deal heavier blow, and that he is using
the remaining time in making his plans
in that methodical and amazingly skilful
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
Foch Could Not
Increase Number of Divisions

The Germans, to be sure, did increase
the number of their divisions as recently
as last year. but they did this mainly by
reducing the strength of each division,
and they were seeking greater mobility.
Actually they did not much increase their
numbers, although they did little Of
this AS it stood in March, Foch when
he took over supreme command could not
reckon on more divisions, derived from
British or French sources during the
campaign. save as troops We're recalled
from Italy and Salonica or drawn from
British home garrisons. And the defeat
at Picardy cost the British several fine
divisions, which were practically de-
stroyed.
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14

TOR everything, it seems fair to say that
by the middle of August America will
have met the demand made upon her to
turn the tide and supply the numbers to
counterbalance the advantage accruing
to the Germans through the Russian col
lapse and the consequent transfer Of Ger
man divisions to the Western front.
BY the middle of August the Germans
Will no longer have any advantage OF
numbers on the West front; they may
not have it by August L. And with the
loss of this advantage goes the hope of
winning the war, if it be not won before
that time. For it is apparent that Ger
many has no new reservoir from which
to draw other divisions as she drew divis-
ions from Russia. As for Austrian
divisions, the events along the Piavc
have exhausted German hopes of aid
from this direction, while neither Bu-
gara nor Turkey can or will supply men
in any numbers if may be doubted if
either nation would lend the Kaiser a
single division. As for divisions organ
ized out Of Russian recruits this is
merest moonshine. Germany could not
find officers for then1; it would take Il
year to create the organizations essen
tial to effective units, and if ell these diff
culties were surmounted, there is nothing
to suggest that the Russians would be
willing to fight.
The truth is that Hndenburg and Lu-
dendorff went to the bottom of the Ger
man barrel last spring and last winter
They gathered up all that was left, they
borrowed for the future to meet present
needs and opportunities, they took their
gamble and they have staked their last
dollar on the last card
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
When Will Equality
lie Restored

mere remain 250 900 troops which
''e s'iIl lacking in the necessary train
''s m rance, which serves as "A post
.fadpate course for our graduates of
ie nome camps but experience has al
''aay shown Va France that month af
'ef they land our American troops can
'' sent TO the front-that is, to a quiet
''e'of-provided that they are strongly
Imported by French or British units.
mus 1t is not too much to say that by
me middle of August we shall have two
armies of 100000 each on the line. if il
'e decided to use them in separate for
o'Hnon, or, in any event. that we shall
nave troops capable of taking their place
'' '"o arnues Of this SIZE. And bv the
n'naie Of september we shall have three.
'hls Is the way we must reckon the
availability Of our overseas forces in the
next two months.
with these preliminary rems ras let us
now get back TO the main question, What
erect has Amarica's contribution had
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
We Have Already
Restored the Balance

IL was with this situation clearly in
mind that the first appeal was made to
America, the appeal made in March,
which by July had been answered by the
presence of q million Americans in
France, at least 100000 of them fighting
men. Now, il you reckon Allied and
German troops alike upon the basis Of
the strength Of German division, the
Germans had available for the present
campaign 225 divisions, our allies. with
out US. not less than 1873 nor more than
1876. The permanent inferiority was thus
somewhere between 90 and 81 divisions.
Our first army, TOW in the field con
sists of something less than 25O,OO0,
counting the German way. That is, reck-
oning 10000 to division (our own divi-
ions are more than twice as large as the
German and not to be confused with
ttem), we had thus put into the field by
July 4 one army of 20 divisions. An
equal number Of our troops are distrib-
uted among French and British units,
but may be counted. Thus our 40
divisions added to the divisions of our
allies give a total strength of between
22S and 236 divisions, against the Ger
man 225. But we have also the numer-
ical equivalent Of another twenty German
divisions already in France and getting
their first training, all of whom can go on
the line somewhere by the middle of
August. When they get on the line the
Allied total will stand between 24S and
256 divisions, as against 225 for our
German foes.
In other words-and this is the biggest
fact of alive have already sent to
France enough organized units to restore
and more than restore the balance be-
tween the enemy and our allies when all
of our units are ready and all of our
units will be ready to do something with
in the next month and to do considerable
before the middle of September. while
from four to six weeks still remain for
campaigning. 1t may be that our first 40
divisions have already evened things up.
certainly they would have if the Germans
are still but 206 divisions strong, as thew
were last March, accepting for the basis
of calculation the lowest conceivable esti-
mate of Allied divisions But, ALLOWING, ,
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
Amr at Canugn


Western front. Now, | have no access
to official figures or private sources Of
information and if had them could
not make use of them here, but, using
the German statements. using such Off
cial information as the Allied stats
have permitted to come through it
seems to me that on March u the Ger
mans could not have had more than p
100000 on the Western front and the
Allies certainly not less than 2,250O00
and probably not less than 1850 900.
This would mean that the immediate
disparity IN numbers was not above
250,000 at the most, and probably not
more than 10000 Bear in mind, how
ever, that at this time the relatively
small difference in numbers was onlv
one of the nandicaps of our allies; divs-
ion of command materially lcssened the
value of the numbers actually in hama
and contributed to the first disaster,
which was the Battle of Picardy. But
~ addition to possible disparity of
100000 at The moment the Allies were
bound to look forward to the time when
another 100000 would be added to the
German plumbers by the arrival Of other
divisions already marked for use be-
tween Switzerland and the sea.
In this situation the Allies could not
Increase the number of their divisions.
1t takes time--many months-to create
new divisional units, with the necessary
officers and organization. In point Of
fact. the French stopped increasing the
number of their units in the first year of
the war, the British before last year.
The French and British were both of
them driven to do this by the approach
ing exhaustion of their man-power
They had to calculate, with the reserves
OF men left to them, now long they
could supply wastage in existing units
Thus, if the French have 1,25O,OOO in
their fighting army, they must keep an
equal number behind to fill gaps made
by casualties, and the British situation
is the same, Of course. 1t is misappre-
hension Of this detail which contributes
so much to the general confusion when
numbers are mentioned
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
German Forces $50, 900
Larger in March

Bat we have certain things to guide
US. No Allied report has placed more
than zoe German divisions on the West
cru front up to the present moment, al
though there have been credible reports
that before the campaign was over at
least 22a would appear German divis-
ions are now reckoued at 1000 men,
and 2o6 divisions would thus mean
around 100000 men. Ndd another go
Oo0 for those chat arc TO come. possibly
aud the brute strength Of the German
thrusting power for the present cam
palgu would be roo GOO men; but it is
we'll to bear IN mind that no more than
and net all of these, by any means, have
been engaged i'll the several oTensives
Against this mass what were the Al
lies able to oppose in March? And in
March we were for al practical pur-
poses out of IT, The organized strength
Of the British army in France, using
German reports, has varied from sixty
TO seventy divisions. believe the latter
figure to he more nearly correct, but GER
tain British military writer's have sug-
gested that many divisions were below
strength. A British division should have
about $4,000 men, but, accepting the fig
ure of sixty divisions and the strength
Of $4,000 for the divisions, the British
had around 900 men in line when
Hindenburg began on March 21.
The French, on their part, mad some
ninety divisions; reckoning division Al
$4,000 and, allowing for weakness in
some of these divisions, they must still
have counted at least l,250,000 on the
line or in reserve, ready for line service
As for the Belgians, they have had six
divisions III line for several years, and
must number at least $4,000, as, despite
their small facilities for recruitment,
their losses have been slight. Two
Portuguese divisions, numerically very
strong, complete the list.
We have. then. 100000 British and
colonlals--! am certain, as ii matter of
fact, that the total is nearer 1000
600; $50. 900 French and something
more than 100000 Belgians and Portu-
guese-in all 2,35O,O0O Allied troops
against 100000 Germans in line or in
reserve and some 250,OOO more prob
ably marked for ultimate use on the
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14

At best, with all reserves employed,
foch could not bring his numbers of Or
ganlzed units much above $3.50, 900 or
any above 2,350000, while he was bound
to expect to have on his hands at one
time or another some 100000 Germans
already in sight, plus 100000 scheduled
to arrive. Both the British and the
French armies could replace wastage, ia
any event up to u total loss of 100000
by drawing upon the unorganized re-
serves in the depots, but this would mere
~ serve to keep the Allied divisions up
to full strength and no more
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14

upon the numerical balance between tho
'ermans and their opponents in France?
Nt what point VIII che American troops
restore equality between the forces di-
rectcd by Ludendorf and those mar
shalled by Foch? In asking these ques-
tions We enter the domain of speculation
and attack the problem which has puz-
lied all military observers outside the
official secrets for the last three months
Nor IS amy exact answer possible until
thc statistics of the German army be-
come public property.
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
Last Bad Crisis
For Allies In
War Is Now
Nearing
End
Copyright, 1918 - The Tribune
Association The New York
Tribune)

outnumbered and before he can organ
ize third blow weather as we'll as num-
bers will have turned against him. Here
are bases for real optimism, for sane
confidence. We must not expect too
much of our new troops; we must not.
and naturally do not, reckon them the
equal Of German veterans OF picked
divisions, but we may think of what
equally unframed British troops accom-
plished against the best Of the Kaiser
army after Ypres. and thus appreciate
the value to our hard pressed allies OF
the American contingents.
Further than this, outside the calcu-
lation OF 100000 fighting troops stand
more than 100000 Americans, who are
at work on communications. at the
ports, in all the behind-the-l tasks
which must be performed The contri-
button of these men TO winning the war
is quite as great as that of their com,
rades on the firing line. They nave re
built railroads, created ports. performed
labor which viii be of great value this
year. and even greater next. It is a
mistake to reckon these men as fighting
units. 1t is an even greater error To
eliminate them from the reckoning al
this time, when France and Britain. as
well as Germany are suffering from
terrible lack of labor
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
America Has
Not allied Her Allies

There is another phase Of Americas &
contribution which must be considered.
although one viii speak of it with some
hesitation. When Russia collapsed the
war was lost for our allies had we failed
to do all of what we have done We coul5
not do less and perform our duty to the
nations which had been lighting this
struggle, which is our struggle. ove,
three years of agony. But il the United
States had not beer ready and willing to
step into the breach Germany would
have won the victory. There might he
some question of the extent OF this vic
tory, but at the least she would havo
been left with free hands in Eastern Fu-
rope and the resources would have been
in her hands to resume the march toward
supreme power.
The knowledge Of the fact that Amer
lea was coming served to bridge the
difficult time between the disappoint-
ments of last year at the Aisne and in
Flanders and the arrival Of the first cor
siderable contngents Of Pcrshing's army
Again, after the Battle Of Picardv. in
March and April our allies would have
been beaten had there been no American
reserves to rush to France to restore the
balance between the two armies numeri-
eally. Not only this transport Of troop
but the knowledge that our troops were
coming enabled the British and the
French to use their reserves as they
could not. have used them had there beer
no other reserves soon to become avail
able.
Americans in Europe trembled last
year when they realized how much was
expected of their country, when thew saw
how terrible was the crisis and how great
the need. But | do not believe The
French, who were most optimistic IN
their views as TO what America was 90
ing to do, can be disappointed now. when
our hrst million is in France, lust a
little more than year after Pershinr
was welcomed by ali Paris and exactly
year after the first American battalion
struggled to keep its ranks amid the
charges of Partisan crowds. eager to nav
Hi'oh ~ f1iller1Cd HrSt contingent.
We have the next German blow TO
parry, and it will be terrible task.
Beyond that IS the German peace often
slye' which will not be less dangerous.
and We shall have TO be as Efficient IN
meeting the peace offensive as we have
been IN getting the men over to meet the
military blow. But the millions are there
and we are understanding the character
of the German menace TO US, as civil
lied nation, more clearly and more gen
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
The Last Bad
Crisis of the War

If this second major attack fails to
bring a decison-and | believe it viii
fail-then there will not be time left to
organize third before weather cOndi-
tions close the campaign of 1918. Great
gains in ground like those made earlier
in the year, provided they do not open
the way to d decisive success, q success
which will break the military power and
civilian will of France or Britain, will
not count, for they will not change the
situation. We may safely say to our
selves, with every recognition of the
terrific weight of the blow that is COM
ing, that it is the last, and that if it
fails, then before the Germans can pre-
pare a new blow, the lighting for the
year will be over
Looking to the future, this means that
when next years campaign comes Amer
lea can have on the line not fewer than
5000 men, ready to go in by May Of
next year This will be an army larger
than the British Or French has ever been
and numerically stronger than the Ger
mans have used on the Western front be
tween the First Battle of Ypres and the
opening of the present campaign. 1t will
represent 125 German divisions in nu-
merical strength, and, added to at least
1870 divisions Of our allies, will give our
combined armies at least 315 divisions
for next year, against German total
which in all probability cannot exceed
220 and at worst will not pass 250. if
all German divisions in Russia and the
Balkans are drawn in for service on the
Western front
We are getting on, then, approaching
the end of what must prove the last bad
crisis of the war. The Germans, using
the policy of Napoleon in the Waterloo
campaign, have endeavored to deal with
one set Of enemies before another could
arrive. Napoleons purpose was to de
feat the British ana The Prussians before
the Austrans and Russians could arrive
IN Western Europe. Ludendorff's pur-
pose has been to deal with the British
and French before the Americans could
arrive. 1t was with this idea in mind
that he struck his terrific blow of March
u, but this blow, while bringing one of
the great victories of the war, did not
accomplish the larger purpose Time
for America to come still remained
More than three months have passed
since the Battle of Picardy began, and
upward of three-quarters of million
American fighting men are now in Eu-
rope. Ludendorff has now to strike his
second blow, and with it his numerical
advantage will disappear. If he fails to
win the war with this blow he WI be
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
Our Fresh Troops
In an Old Line

After all, it is something to feel that
we met the appeal of our gallant allies
between March and july, that We gave
them the necessary men, that We re
stored the balance destroyed by Russian
collapse. Our soldiers are not yet com
parable with the men of Ypres or Of
Verdun. Our officers are not the officers
of the French army at the Marne but
on the physical side we have now the
finest troops in Europe, and they bring
the added advantage which is the pos
session Of fresh and unwearied troops
going into an action which has endured
for long time
What we celebrated upon our own ns-
tional holiday on July ! we may there
fore believe the French will hail with
equal enthusiasm on this their Bastille
Day AS for the British--but they cele-
brated the Fourth of July with us, which
Is again something of enduring signif-
canoe.
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
ree.Oualcrs ol p Million
Of Fighting Men

la 1sm a' fhe beginning We are told
the har Iepartmert thai Of the mill
ome ra cent mny te counted as
ghtng mcr. and this would mean $50
800 mea N1d fo this total the number
egI ih .'s weeks that have passed
nse ihf uHoancemout wfs made and
nW l.T etmatc that on this
4sldIe uas there arc In France three
saHtee ~ mHiou Americans ready
. sesfred soon to be- Ready lo appear
= fh, evNtine hnc
~ Hraf ihni ve have now iu France
n aiet nh0-e frrnni2ed strength is
rs hau that= of the Gcrman army
nne more than half as strong
uhtN Germauy hurled al
eHr lhc Narpe campaign ami
'.esaurte 'ronp ss the French
ehlh Defeated the German bud
nfame victory between Paris and
tefaa sratemtcr. 1911
inf tb9co auarters ~ "a mill
atHa ppr lmafciy 2oo 600. have
5seI hio Jhe first Amer.
mssa this rrmy may be reck
'nra feare.el.ing ccalN formidable
u8c aii If tho lseop
'H He. longest lee llanec aad e.
'anmH ne hose of our officers who
have ha.l the heet training aud the most
'.pe ea.a nsludss the lirst Divi.
7e 0h0r H esa1 a good account OF
ers cetors and won the
iIt sucs, az tautlguy "A few
Nees $500 FINS army IN strength rep
.'eents aboW the same numbers As the
".hi nf0 Hhieh potaln defended Yer
'a aH4 ~ unf ~ physical strength
'' 1peuar t0 reiun aol9iers because
o.. .hep o1h 81 Nerduu France wa
'''sais He m1dls aged men, although
me Hgh'ns achievement of these middle
'rei Hcn VIII stand sa an everlasting
monument ~ ceuraqe and endurance.
We have, then viyen tho Allie, our
allies eone army which, If s,ill inferior
10 iho best oC the British aud French
'tlhies. is resource of great impor-
lance I'm addition, we may reckon upon
"'9'oer force, equally strong, scattered
along the front in British and French
'''s' eetfng ltS training on the firing
and contributing nightly to rcliey-
'.s 'Ne strain upon the older troops. All
''''''s. con ldercd. this army may be as
.'o'd 70 he about equal to the first of
N1ehener armies. which came out af
'' pres and got its bloody and bitter
'.aio'nE on the line, but held its share
n that lne
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14
Germany Losing
Her Advantage
In Numbers
On West
Front
~ FRANK II. SIMONDS
Author OF The World War, They
Shall Not Pass"

Tia. announcement made fer tho
tonrth ef July that our First Million
had arrived In Europe stirred the Amer
,,an people profoundly. as Vt should have
moved them Looked ut from the side
n nauona pride and patriotic perform
snce. it WIFI remain memorable in the
s,s!ers + hls. ihe greatest of all wars
,.a IL Is s feat commensurate not with
what we expected of ourselves, hut of
what our alhes hoped of us. Vet 1t is
ai oa the aspect of the achievement
.aai Americans viii care now to lay EN-
naasis. ahen So much still remains to be
lone and oar enemy continues dangerous
.nJ teaant not yet victorious, Ger
ns tot So defeated
lta to the military side OF Americas
oatr.bauou that most minds Will turn
F.. lh moment What VII million
Amerlesn soldiers mean at this crisis in
me World War What will they mean
n the RESTORING of the balance between
ire German ani his opponents on the
Western battlefront. the balance de-
u8yed ~ he collapse Of Russia Be
me ageUniWH o answer these cues
.aas -. ,.seHta to point out certain
ac. W. aaec sent % million men to
raaee ana lne} are solid fact ON
eaea .ui we canuot reckon that
hale w mllion fighting men
tlga .ff e.ean or that all Of the fight
s men vhA haye crossed are yet in
~ .lll l.r ervice.
New-York tribune., 1918-07-14

fashion which was revealed in the last
great attack, which produced the Battle
of Picardy, for all other attacks since
by comparison have been minor