The Washington times., 1918-02-10
The Coming Great
IS UNABLE.
TODRAW HEAVILY
ON EASTERN LINES
NJ HuAIRE BELLoC.

The great war at this moment is
halted in q suspense which is only a
preparation for the great action i'm
SaSdIatsIy IMPENDING.
Snow has fallen upon the lower
Alps and checked the Austrian pres
sure upon the flank OF. the Piave line.
The crest of Monte Tomba, the only
point on the last mountain wall
which the enemy reached, and there
fore the only good observation point
whence the enemy could command the
plains to the Adriatic, was retaken
by the French, and since the supple
Inentary italian success action in this
sector would seem to have come, for
the moment, to an end.
Upon the main western front,
through France and Belgium, there
is no great action proceeding. Both
parties are summing up their strength
for the struggle OF the approaching
fighting season, which each hopes 10
make final and decisive.
The time at which write this, the
first OF my weekly summaries for The
eral review OF the situation.
How do the opposing forces ap-
proach the fighting season of 1918?
The outlines are OF common knowl-
edge; the collapse of Russia; the con-
ttnued activity OF the enemy's sub
marine offensive; the certainty of. an
indeterminate period before the full
strength of the United States can be
brought 70 bear, either in men or in
materials or in building power-thAt
iE, tonnage; or in counter attacks
against the submarines by sea.
The TIVE Phases Of
The Submarine Campaign.
But these general outlines, with
which all the world Is familiar. need
precision. The severity OF the sub
marine campaign cannot be clearly
defined, but we must clearly recog-
nike its various parts. 1t is directed
against two main objects-the mill
tary communications of the allies and
The civilian supply, mainly OF the Brit
ish Isles (which depend for their life
upon overseas materially, and to some
extsut OF the other western powers
az. for example. the supply Of Italy
with coal ,
These two objects Of the submarine !
campaign are closely interconnected
and overlapping; they are none the
less distinguishable. 1t is in the ele- |
ment OF supply, rather than in the ele- |
4
marine offensive has produced itS |
most noticeable effects, and this for |
the reason that military communica- |
uons have been rightly regarded as
vital to the campaign-any serious in I
terferencs with them is disastrous, |
while there was and is a very large
margin Of safety for civilian supplies. !
The submarine offensive conducted
by the enemy upon an extensive scale |
for eleven months has passed through
two main phases There was first the ,
phase. in which the sinkings were
not only absolutely larger than they
they were also relatively much great, |
er compared with the rate of replace |
ment-
This first phase ended with early or
middle summer of last year. The !
second phase has been one in which
while the curve OF positive loss has |
1luctuated its general average has
been declining, and during which the
corresponding positive factor against |
this negative-the building to replace |
loss-has regularly increased, but
at q rate which has not been commu- |
nicated to the public. and therefore, |
s not open to discussion.
What we hope for, what we cannot
prophesy and what only the future |
will confirm or deny is that the third |
phase, in the net result OF loss and /
gain, will show q declining curve.
An Estimate Of
The Chances on Land.
With the second element-action by !
Iand-it Is otherwise. Here we can |
deal with figures fairly precise and !
estimate the chances OF war more ac-
curately.
First, we must regard the Bulgarian |
and Turkish armies as occupying their |
own fields outside the critical sectors |
They are faced and held in Macedonia, |
Syria and Mesopotamla. There are
two, possibly three, Turkish divisions !
lent to the central powers upon their (
eastern line: a rather larger number !
OF Bulgarians north OF the Danube, or /