Wausau pilot. [volume] (Wausau, Wis.) 1896-1940, 1918-01-15
he present strength of the German

FROM the total present combatant
strength must be subtracted 1,36S.OOO
men, the total losses Germany must
expect to suffer by November, 1918,
IL she goes on with the war; to that
strength must be added 100000 for
the class of 1920. The German armies,
then, Will have declined approximately
S6o,OOO men, on November L, 1918, from
thelr strength on the first of last May.
To Face 5,s71 900 Men.
This loss of strength will fall upon
the combatant forces alone. The l.
439OO6 old and unfit troops on duty
in the rear will remain as they were.
The 100000 fighting men possessed
by Germany today will have dwindled
to 4,232,0OO. Add to these the 1,739,-
600 non-eombatant troops and the fig
ure of 5,971,OO0 men is attained, the
total land strength of the German en-
pre- which 1t was said at the begin
ming OF this story would be in the
heius at the opening of the third, or
American, phase of the war.
Now this is frankly an estimate
which must allow for a considerable
margin of error. The figures of the
number of divisions in the fields are
officially correct; the number of Ger
man net casualties, accepting their
own lists, is known to within small
fraction; but the chance of error
comes in the calculation of reserve
troops.
have shown these figures, however,
to high military authority who said,
81 have gone over them carefully, and
l think you are safely within margin
of error of 10 per cent; the only really
incalculable point at which you had
to guess was whether the rate of cas-
ualties for the next year and half
will be the same as it has been in the
past"
1t may be assumed that while the
American armies during the year 1918
will doubtless be able to take their
fair share of the fighting. they will
not be in sufficient numbers 20 do most
of the work, as the British are doing
it now, until the end of the year at
least.
American Phase in 1919.
But at the beginning of the sixth
summer campaign of the war, in the
spring of 1919 there Is no doubt that
the American phase" will have COM
menced in earnest. Neither the French
nor British armies will then be in
position to carry out offensives on a
large scale. They will not have the
men. America will have them. The
Americas troops and the allies will be
faced, in the spring of 1919, by 400O,-
600 German fighting men, not count
ing the old and unfit in the rear.
All this may sound very improb-
able. 1t is possible, and / think prob
able, that the war will not go on to
the bitter END. There is grave doubt
whether campaign of 1918 will be
fought to a finish, whether the "Amer-
lean phase" of 1919 will ever arrive.
For the sake of the world it is to be
devOutly hoped that it will not.
But the point is that Germany will
not surrender until she knows she is
beaten; and America must remember
that Germany will be able to keep A.
100000 men for the campaign of 1919.
Germany will not yield unless America
begins now and trains armies capable
of smashing those 100000 men. Not
all the ships and money in the world
will prevent this war from dragging
on to an inglOriOuS draw unless Amer
lean soldiers in sufficient numbers are
prepared to deal the finishing blow.
That is the moral of these calcula-
tons, and indeed it is the reason why
they are permitted publication.
Strength of Teuton Allies.
A general view of the present war
resources of the central powers de-
mands consideration of the forces
of Germany's allies as well as of the
fatherland itself.
In addition to the 231 German divi-
sions, the Austrians have SO, the Bull
garians IL and the Turks, nominally,
about so, some of which exist only
upon the parchment scrolls of the
Turkish war office.
The west front is held entirely by
155 German divisions. These are div
ided almost equally between the Brit
ish and French fronts. The lines op-
posite the British front are held by
the group of armies under the COM
mand of Prince Rupprecht of Bavaria,
while the German crown prince COM
mands the French sector.
Each of these two main groups has
reserve of about twenty divisions,
maintained in the rear for use in case
of emergency. Twenty-eight of these
divisions are not strictly fresh, but
have been reformed after being broken
in action at Arras and on the Aisne.
| TweIve-six on the British and six on
the French front-are entirely ship
shape, and almost alone among Ger
many's good troops have not been put
into action this year. Out of the 155
divisions in France, all but 43 have
been in battle on the Aisne, at Arras
or Messines, and % of them have been
engaged twice. The average losses
before a division is withdrawn from
an active sector are 1000 men. OF
the 43 divisions which have not been
engaged this year, Is are landwehr
whom the Germans will not trust in
full dress battles, and the others are
the strategic reserves, excepting four
or five who have been holding quiet
sectors and have not yet been drawn
into the great suction actions"
Princelnes Nominal Commanders.
The command of the German armies.
of course, rests only nominally in the
hands of the princelings whose names
figure in the bulletins. Col Count
Won der Schulenburg, chief of staff to
the crown prince, is really in COM
mand of the French front, subject only
TO supreme control of Hindenburg and
Ludendorff. General Won Boehn COM