Gilpin observer., 1918-11-21

The entire marketing situation has
% changed since the September joint
conference as to necessitate an entiro
alteration In the plans Of price stabi-
NATION. The current peace talk has
alarmed the holders Of corn, and there
has been "a price decline Of from 20
cents to 40 cents per bushel. The fact
that the accumulations Of low priced
corn in the Argentine and South Afri'
q would, upon the advent Of peace
snd liberated shipping, become availa-
BILE to the European market has ere
ated a great deal Of apprehension on
the part of corn holders. This decline
has spread fear among swine growers
that a similar reduction in the prices
Of hogs would naturally follow. More
ever, the lower range Of corn prices
would, II Incorporated in 13-to-1 ra-
ito, obviously result in continuously
falling price for live hogs. In view
Of these changed conditions many
swine producers anticipated lower
prices and as result rushed their
hogs to market in large numbers, and
this overshipment has added to and
aggravated the decline.
The information of the Department
Of Agriculture indicates that the sup
ply of hogs has increased about per
cent, while the highest unofficial esti-
mate does not exceed Is per cent. In
creased production over last year. On
the other hand, the arrival of hogs
during the last three weeks In the
seven great markets has been q per
cent. more than last year, during the
corresponding period, demonstrating
the unusually heavy marketing of the
available supply. In the face Of the
excessive receipts some packers have
not maintained the price agreed last
month. On the other hand, many
Of the packers have paid over the
price offered to them 10 an endeavor
to maintain the agreed price. The re-
suit in any event has been failure
to maintain the October price basis
determined upon at the September con-
ference and undertaken by the pack
ers. Another factor contributing to
the break In prices during the month
has been the Influenza epidemic; 1t
has sharply curtailed consumption Of
pork products and temporarily de-
creased the labor staff Of theipackers
about IS per cent
Tho exports of 100000 pounds
sf pork products for October COM
pared with about 100000 pounds
IN October a year ago, and tho
export orders plnceable by the Food
Administration for November. amount
to 1TO,OOOO0O pounds as contrast
ed with the lesser exports OF
$4,000, 1000 for November, 1917. The
increased demands Of the allies are
continuing, and are In themselves
proof of the necessity for the large
production for which the Food Admin
6tration asked. The Increase in ex-
Port demands appears to be amply
sufficient to take up the increase In
hog product III, but unfavornble mar
het conditions existing in October af-
ford no fair index Of the aggregate
supply and demand.
II must be evident that the enor'
nous shortage In fats In the Central
Empires and neutral countries would
Immediately upon peace result In nd
ditional demands for pork products
which, on top Of the heavy shipments
A. tnnd rrnfnrtn III u
70 increase the American exports. In
asmuch as no considerable reservoir OF
supplies exists outside Of the United
States II seems probable that the
present prospective supplies would bs
inadequate to meet this world demand
with the return to pence. So far as II
h possible to interpret this fact, II ap
pears that there should be even .
stronger demand for pork products
after the war, and therefore aly alarm
Of hog producers rs to the effect o.
pence is unwarranted by the outlook.
In the light Of these circumstances
Il 10 the conclusion Of the conferenc,
that attempts to hold the price Of hog
to the price OF corn may work out I,
the disadvantage Of pork producers
II 10 the conclusion TINT any interpre
tation Of the formula should be
broad gagged policy applied over
! long period, II is the opinion OF tn,
conference that IN substitution Of tn
previous plnns OF sterilization tn
Lave Stock Subcommittee of the Agrl
cultural Advisory Board. together Will
the specially invited swine represents
tives. should ACCEPT the invitation q
tthe Food Administration TO Join wit
the Administration and the packers Il
determining the prices at which cor
trolled export orders are to be placed
This will be regularly done. The In
Auence Of these orders will be dIrecte
10 the maintenance Of the common OF
lect--namcly. the sterilization Of tn
price Of live hogs 20 A. to secure as IN
a. Il ID possible fair returns to IL