The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1918-07-21
THE WEAKNESS OF PROPHECIES ON
THE END OF WARS
Historical Subjects Recalls the Futile Predictions Made
During American Struggle.

inaugural address he hoped that N.
mighty scourge OF war might speeanv
pass away. Only when Richmond fol,
did he venture to say that he looked
for righteous and speedy peace.
General Grant, like Seward expectAd
war OF only ninety days duration wnen
it commenced. Not before the ba,,lo
OF Shiloh, a year after. did he SEQ a
long war ahead.
I That nobody OF the civil war parIoa
could approximate the probable dpra.
ton of the conflict despite understand.
ing Of the aims and resources OF ho,b
sides and common knowledge o, ac.
tive disunion conspiracy for four years
preceding Is far more surprising than
the many speculations. conjecture,
and prophecies already exploded IN
connection with the present world wa,
launched by Germany after forty
years preparation Mt the instance a,
man of professed pacific intentions
and since destined to rank as one Of
the most Infamous OF all the monarchs
in history.
The many misconceptions Of wall
informed antc-war students OF Ger.
many and the Kaiser are a lesson for
those given to prophecies at this stage
of the war. One OF the many since
disillusioned. Professor Henri Lichten.
berger of the Sorbonne. Paris. said
shortly before the war that the poye-
the Germans revere is not the brutal
tyrannical, capricious and arhitrar,.
force which delights in stupid oppr.s
sion and denies all rights.
Professor Hugo Miinsterberg wrote
that both Germany and America were
destined to understand and TO esteem
each other mutually extend their
friendship. to emulate each other and
to work together
According to Brayler in his The
House of Hohenzollern," 1t was a mis-
take to assume that the War Lord
was spelling for a fight and impa-
tiently awaiting an opportunity In
test the strength OF his mailed nst
Long service as Ambassador n
Germany and intimate relations with
all classes and opportunity of study
led Andrew d. White to say. nine
years before the outbreak. OF the
young monarch then at the head
l"Original. yet studious of the grea,
men and deeds Of the past; brave, vet
conciliatory, never allowing the mailed
fist to become unnerved. but none the
less devoted to the conquests o,
peace"
1t was the privilege OF John MORLEY
to see and talk much with the Kaiser
when he visited England in 1907 He
noted his "naturalness. geniality and
indebtedness: and the golden i'm
preston he left in the minds OF everv-
body was of his real desire for peace :"
But one year before the war Hurd
and Castle. authors of German Sea
Power expressed the view that the
Kaiser knew he could not afford to
quarrel with Great Britain.
A following view of the foreign
horn population was expressed by
Homer Lea in his book The 1gno-
rance Of Valor," published In 1909,
The hereditary instincts OF unnun.
hered generations are not erased from
the f1bre OF men by the word OF Ar
official, and patriotism, as ordinaril,
understood. does not permit the for
swearing Of ones nationality and th'
adoption of another with con
comitant display of greater virtue II
adopted than in native population
The same writer also missed the bulls
eye when declaring that a national
lied citizen is an anomaly II there f
such a thing as patriotism, and when
ever the S:cte military preparedness
is highly developed in one nation AM
lacking in another ensuing wars ar