The Birmingham age-herald., 1918-08-01
GOVERNMENTS AID LIMITED


 because the southern growers refused to heed the warning of agricultural leaders and economists.
 GOVERNMENTS AID LIMITED
 Nevertheless, Mir. Ousley points out, the government is prepared to do whatever it can to heir avert hardship, though it's ability in this direction is limited, even though it exercises it's war powers to the utmost. 1t must be remembered, he cautions, that not even the government of the United States, with all it's powers, can make two bales of cotton fit into the place where there is only room for oue
 By the aiu of government agencies, by judicious marketing, by withholding part of the crop for later development, by d l. |Justment of next years acreage, the south can come out whole and with profit There are not enough persons on the farm-men, women and children-to gather the crop, much of which must be lost. Mr Ousley thinks, unless the
 people of the towns will help. The prosperity or every town in the cotton belt depends upon saving and market ing this important money crop, and it s imperative that the people of the towns organize fo; cotton picking. There IS
 no labor that may be imported, and nole that may be created by the government or conscrpted On the other hand, there are enough men and women at useless tasks in the south who can turn in and save the crop. He did not doubt that they would do it when they perceive the need
 Secretary Ousley's address follows Tn full:
 Tt is an old saying that the average cotton farmer will not sell when prices are advancing and will not hold when l prices are declining. From what I have 1 learned during the last few weeks, l am l inclined to the view that the cotton farm | CTS today ale resolved and are prepared | to pursue more rational course. l fiaI | little evidence that the actual farmer 1 is the least panicky over the cotton sit uation. He remembers the sad expe.i- ence of 1914. when We brought a big l crop to market just after the world war broke, and because there was then mHre cotton than could be sold and delivered, We fell into mysteries and sacrificed d large part of it below cost of cultivation. If We had been wiser then, we would have retired a small part of the crop and sold the greater part of 1t at fair l prices. As matter of fact, We had 10
 hold a small part and ultimately we ao- 1 sorbed it in the reduced crops of the l three succeeding years.
 1 Some people seem to have the notion | that the situation now is as serious as 1 it was in 1914. It does not so appear to
 me. But even if it were, if we wil
 only profit by the experience of 1914 'e
 can easily solve the problem.
 ANALYZING STATISTICS Let us first analyze the statistical po~ sition The July crop report indicated a
 production of 15,300,oO0 bales. That est'-
 mate is based upon an acreage of 6.z
 per cent in excess of last year and upon nf mt d with 70.3 pc. cent in 1917 and 7s.S per cent for the 10-year average. Unfavorabie ! weather from this time forward during | the growing season, early frost, or | both night reduce that estimate iui | 100000 bales The boil weevil has ann pie time yet to reduce the estimate 5oo.-
 000 bales. Still we must accept the estl-
 mate as a probability.
 we had manufactured in the United 1 States for the Il months ending June So, | 6,049o44 bales. The consumption for Juna
 was 527,4S and the July consumption vii! probably be aa much, and this means that | for the F months ending July 31, we VIII have manufactured something over 6,oo9,- GOO bales. Ii is fair to assume that We | will manufacture at least as much next year, and every condition indicates that 1 we will manufacture more. I think 1t al ! together safe to assume that we will con- | SuiiS oi tic iicW SIOp dl iedol sboVo WY
 bales in Amrican mills. We have export ed for the l. months ending June 30, 5,2oS,- 1 352 bales. By the end of July we Will
 have exported something more than 4,Joo,-
 600. If we could not manufacture more than we manufactured last year, and II
 we could not export more, of course We | would have surplus of something like l 100000 bales 1 do not consider present l stocks as constituting surplus from the crop of 19l7 The cotton on hand in coll suming establishments on June 30 was 1,661, 1892 compared with 1,743,527 last year, 1 and the cotton in storage for the corre- spending dates was 2.l173O0 compared with 1,402, 403 In these two items we have only 6SS.362 bales more than we had at this time last year. That is a mere | trifle in view of the increasing demaad 1 for cotton goods on account of the scare | ity and high prices of wool and silk. I "Of course, no man can say with any certainty how much shipping will le available for export during the next t12 months, but We do know that at | the present time the allied countries are constructing ships faster than they are being destroyed and that subnla- rines are being destroyed faster than | Ithey are being built. l hope that we | can maintain this rate of progress; in ! that event there may be considerably ! rnore shipping for cotton the coming year than we had during the closing ear without jeopardizing or decreas- II tho military rnnuamont Wa n1