New-York tribune., 1918-05-03
By Arthur S. Draper
Tribune Cabie servicel.


LONDON, May 2.-Military and poll
tical developments of great Importance
seem imminent. The question is
whether the enemy's peace drive is in
tended to synchronize with the next
military operation or to follow it. The
peace drive is being prepared with
German thoroughness and it will have
powerful momentum when it IS
launched.
There are two ways to look at this
peace drive, which is certain to come
very soon. The foolish optjmists who
consistently have underrated the
enemy throughout the war and even
now have learned little from the
events of the past six weeks, have hyp-
Noticed themselves into believing the
German army is near collapse and the
their hands. They exaggerate the war
wearness of Austria. the losses in
Picardy and the signs of unrest in Ger
many. They see rumors of a peace
drive as confession of failure by the
German militarists and quick ending
of the war.
War Weary, but Not Through
Here is the other view. Every Eu-
ropean belligerent is decidedly war
weary. France, Italy and England are
tired Of fighting, but SO is the. crew Of
an eight-oared shell at the end of the
third mile of race they eventually
win in the fourth.
The German militarists-Ludendo
and his band of skilful assistants-are
professional soldiers. They didn't plan
Il, Oh, "a
in surrender. They have supply of
men which is not nearly exhausted. Ii
proof of this is needed it is only neces-
sary to refer to Haig's campaign at
Ypres last year. At no time in that
long battle did he have an army COM
parable numerically with that now un-
der Ludendorff's command. In fact,
Haig probably employed fewer divi-
sions between July and November than
Germany has used in the last four
weeks.
Good judges assure me the enemy is
strong enough to continue to deal
heavy blows. If that is true then why
the peace drive? Why the camoufiage
gloom that is being spread by so many
German newspapers? The answer is
found III the history of the events pre-
ceding the present campaign. Germany
made her big peace drive in February
sible to state now. At that time Luden-
dorff never slackened for a moment his
preparations for the military thrust.
A German Gamble.
The peace drive was German
gamble. 1t was hoped to throw the
Allies off their balance, it was intended
to distract their attention from the
military front. Everyone can measure
the success it attained.
That is the German policy to-day.
The German 1nilitarfsts are playing
'possum, they are creating peace at
mosphere because It will make their
task less difficult. And the task of
Ludendorff & Co. is to vindicate Ger
man mlitarism. The Allies greatest
war aim is to discredit LudendorfT.
Those, briefly, are the two views of
the situation The coming peace
mannuvre will be based on territorial
exchanges, method which is likely to
satisfy many who look on the war in
a narrow way. Emperor Charles will
play leading part He is being coached
now by the rulers of Germany-the
militarists.
He will try to placate Italy and pose
as the friend Of France and the we'll
wisher Of England and Belgium. He
is undoubtedly sincerely anxious for
peace, but he is powerless to act with
out the sanction Of the German mill
tarists. They intend to plead thev have
no desire for conquest, but only are
desirous of peace.
An attempt is going to lie made to
satisfy even America But, so long as
Ludendortf directs the peace drive,
America cannot attain her chief war
aim. There is no compromise between
right and wrong. Ludendorff is Won
derful leader; he is a powerful die
tator; he represents Americas great
est enemy And he is managing the
coming peace drive as ore of his null
titudinous duties as the military dicta-
tor of the Central Powers.