The Washington herald., 1918-02-10
WEATHER MAY
FORCE EARLY
GERMAN DRIVE
Favorable Conditions Indi-
cate Fighting on Western
Front Soon Due.
Special Cable to The Washington
Herald and New York Tribune.

Special Cable 10 The Warrington
Herald and New York Tribune.
London, Feb. 9.-Since the middle OF
January the weather has been eX-
ceptionAlly mild and unless there Is
a sudden change. conditions for
launching an early attack in the West
will be far superior to those Of the
last two years.
February Is normally the worst
month Of the year in Flanders, but
SO far it has proved exceptionally
fine. The last week IN 1916 saw the
opening OF the German campaign at
Verdun, but it was not until March,
1917, that Hindenburg began to with
draw from the Somme and 1t was
April before Niyelle launched his at
tack.
There are two excellent reasons why
an early offensive may be expected.
First, Germany has the initiative and
the quickest way the enemy can hope
to improve the morale behind the
lines is to gain a military success
That morale needs strengthening, all
the reports of German confidence to
the contrary notwithstanding.
Second, this winter has been re-
markably favorable for the movement
and training Of troops and guns. 1t
is reasonable to expect heavy fighting
within the next four weeks and the
first blows may be struck any mo-
ment
May Attack French.
Instead of one or two thrusts, mill
tary students consider four or even
five simultaneous attacks at widely
separated points possible.
Some critics have forecasted a cam
paign against the French because
their army has been under a longer
and heavier strain than the British
and because Paris offers a tempting
bait and Hindenburg declared he would
be there by April, also, because the
French front presents two-thirds of
the whole Western line and cannot
possibly be held so strongly as the
British.
But another school looks for a ma
jor blow against the British on the
assumption this Is the decisive year
of the war and unless the enemy can
break his strongest foe he viii be no
better or than he is today. i.
They admit this is a reversal OF Ger
man strategy, but then the campaigns
against Serbia, Rumania and Italy
/ were not intended to end the war, but
only as steps toward that objective.
They hold the coming campaign will
be followed by peace.
L have had opportunity to sound
opinion in high quarters and can state
that those who advance the latter
view have the weight of expert mill
tary Judgment behind them.
Germany has approximately $50 di-
visions in the West, and the number
may reach 200 in another month.
Where will she hit? Haig's COM
muniques for the last fortnight have
recorded twenty-five raids or attempts
to enter hts lines.
Seventeen of these have been be-
tween Armentieres and st. Quentin,
on the right wing of the British army
and the part of the front with the
best footing at this season of the year.
The other raids have been on the
Ypres front. In many Of them Haig
admitted the enemy captured pris-
oners.
Victory Is Needed.
All of which indicates there is
good reason to expect a lively time
on the battlefield which already
has been the scene of some OF the
bloodiest fighting of the war. Prob
ably that part of the British front
offering, the greatest natural OBJ
stacles but also the greatest reward
IL smashed is that between the coast
and Ypres.
The capture Of Calais by the Ger
mans would mean disaster to the al
lies. It would mean a complete Ger
man victory. But before the enemy
could hope to reach that important
port he would have to perform much
rONTUNUrn nO pAnr WHO