Evening star., 1918-08-11
BY FRANK n. sIMoNDs.
Copyright, 1918. by the Tribune Association
the New York Tribune)

Copyright, 1918. by the Tribune Association
the New York Tribune.)
Germany has lost the campaign Of
1913. and with this loss has been
Joined the inevitable extinction Of the
last chance to win a military victory,
provided only that the great nations
now in arms against the German and
his minor allies remain as firmly
united as they have been in the past
Germany escaped a defeat which was
plainly indicated after the close of
the campaign of 1916. despite her
Rumanian victories Of thAt year.
solely because Russia abandoned the
struggle and thus freed German
hands. In 1917 the Russian debacle
enabled Germany to defeat British
and French offensives. and in 1918 to
undertake her own great offensive.
which has just been wrecked at the
Marne.
If one could conceive that, follow
ing the Russian precedent, Germany
could hereafter eliminate Britain.
France. the United States or Italy
from the war, she might be able to
undertake new offensive to win a
military decision in the west with q
reasonable prospect of victory. but
longer the numbers or the resources
necessary for the task.
Three Phases Of the War.
We have had in this war three
phases. which have been exactly
alike and have led to the same re-
suits. In August and September, 1914,
Germany undertook to eliminate
France from the war by her great Of
fensive. Her strategy was based upon
the theory that before Russia could
intervene effectively either in East
Prussia or against Austria, the Ger
man army could dispose of France
and thereafter turn its attention to
the reduction of Russia The failure
OF the Marne entailed the decisive
defeat OF this strategy. The German
mighty task and French military
power endured.
Again. at verdun. having beaten
Russia down and while Britain was
stili unready. Germany endeavored to
dispose of France. The problem was
the same, the issues identical, and in
this case it was Britain who played
the role of Russia in 1914 and at the
Somme began an offensive which de-
prived Germany of all chance of re-
alizing her Verdun purposes. For a
second time the western line held
and Germany was thrown back upon
the defensive.
We are just seeing the last phase of
the third German effort. The revolu-
tion in Russia. carefully guided by
posed of Russia in 1917. The United
States could not effectively intervene
in the first half of the campaign of
1918. Ludendorn had nearly six
months ahead of him. as he calcu-
lated. more than six months as it
then seemed. in which to dispose of
Britain and France before Pershing's
army could turn the scales. And as
in 1914, in the Marne campaign, and
in 1916. before Verdun, the Germans
have come within an ace of success
and failed. only after brilliant pre-
liminary triumphs.
Parallel to Napoleon.
But again there has been a repeti-
The German Napoleon has sought
three times to overwhe1m the allied
Wellington. Joffre. Petain and Foch
in turn, but each time Blucher has
arrived in time. the Russians in 1914,
the British in 1916 and ourselves in
1918. AS a result, each grandiose at
tempt has failed at the moment when
the German people and the German
soldiers have not too rashly believed
that victory was within plain sight.
Now. going back to the former oc-
casions, we see that the failure in
the Marine campaign was followed by
transfer of German effort for near
ly a year and a half to the east front.
Germany could not fight offensive
camnniPns on both sides. SO she
abandoned the west to settle matters
in the east. When she came back to
To-,
she was too late. Britain was almost
ready. and France able to hold until
Britain could begin. After the Yer
dun failure it was necessary to go
east and south again, Russia having
once more become dangerous, and
Rumania fresh foe.
Germans Chance to Win.
But Russia definitively destroyed
for military purposes, Rumania dis
posed of, the east at her feet, Ger
many came west again this spring.
America was as unready, far more
unready than Britain in the verdun
time. The chance to dispose of the
older enemies before the new one
was on the field in troublesome num-
bers was unmistakable. The battle of
Picardy, Flanders and the Aisne
seemed to promise the ultimate vic
Mons seemed to promise it in 1914.
The most optimistic allied observer
could not deny that Germany had a
fresh opportunity to gain a decision
on the continental battlefield the mo-
ment it was disclosed that the Ger
mans had devised a system of battle
tactics which abolished the value of
trench systems. as their heavy guns
had abolished the value of forts near
ly four years before. The parallel was
again striking, but fortunately the
end was the same.
Now. it is one thing to say that Ger