The Birmingham age-herald., 1918-06-12
Outlook For Cotton
By W. W. MORRISON

It is fairly certain that if any con- siderable amount of cotton is carrlsd
 this fall by cotton merchants, spin
 ners and speculators it could easily tie up an amount of money that would be, not only a standing menace to the cotton trade, but a menace to the mcr- ale of the business of the nation as well. The cotton not required for iln
 mediate use. however. must be edr- ried by somebody. As it has been def initely established that cotton is surplus crop, it is evident that the cotton community who can do this without subjecting the trade and the country to d perilous risk.
 The trend of events indicates that the producers will have to do this the coming season to protect their own in terest. These events are rather plainly outlined. Due to the scarcity of labor, it has been evident for some time that
 the country was facing reduced pro- duction. It is reasonable to expect that this will be reflected in reducing the output of American cotton mills just as it will be reflected in reducing the output of most of the other stand ard industries. Then, the movement of troops and war supplies abroad can
 hardly be expected to reach its maxi | mum by fall. Hence. any relief of the export situation by that time is prob lematical. At least. it is safer to call culate that it will not improve.
 REDUCED CONSUMPTION
 It seems, therefore, within reason able probability, that the producers will have to face at the beginning of | the season of 1918 reduced consump- 1 tion of American cotton and the han ding of a growing surplus in addition l to the new crop. Assuming that this situation develops, it is perfectly on- l vious that if the producers attempt to l force the new crop on the market as I 1t is gathered from the fields, it vii. 1 have to be sold at a sacrifice, and l there are many evidences that 1t will | be at a ruinous sacrifice at that.
 | This prospective situation is far
 more momentous than many of us probably realize. It involves matters 1 of the very greatest public concern, as l indicated above, for It will plainly af- | feet, and very vitally so, other large | financial and commercial interests, and vast military interests also. quite as | much as it will affect the cotton trad de. l In view of these things, the attituae l of the producer in such circumstances ! is matter of first importance. How will he meet such a situation should | sources to carry the cotton until 1t l can be marketed not only without l sacrifice but at profit? In what di- l rection shall we turn for answer to | these questions?
 l The dearest and most Illuminating an
 swer resides in the history of the cot ] ton market during the last five years | It shows, with only one exception. thnt l the producers have carried practically I all of every crop during this time until I their views as to the price were real l :zed. And this was done in the face Of 1 difficulties, many of them far more for | midable than any that are likely to de- yelop tho coming season. It is signifi-
 cant that at no time during this period 1 has any appreciable amount of cotton
 in the hands of the producers been dis turced by breaks in the future market, | including too, the historic event of FeD- ruary l, 1917. and the events of recent
 weeks. It should be emphasized in this l connection that the only spot cotton at- l fected by these declines had passed ont
 of the hands Of the producers.
 The exception referred to was the de-
 cline which followed the breaking out of
 the wal, and it throws q most illuminat- ing light upon the ability and the dispo-
 sition of the producers to take care Of 1 their interest. The demoralization which 1 followed the beginning of the war. it IS well to remember, was not confined 10 ] cotton producers alone, but to every class
 of business men. The producers recov- cred from the shock as soon as any 1 other members of the business com- l munity. After they recovered they l financed and carried for more than a l year an amount of cotton that was pron- ! ably double any amount they are likely l to he called upon to carry the coming i fall. even should the prophecies as to
 coming developments be fulfilled
 PRODUCERS STRONGER
 ] It is a matter of record that the pro- 1 ducers are infinitely stronger today 1 financially than they were when the war
 began, as the $6 GOO, ,o000e0 returned from sol.hern farms for the year 1917 will at l test. This does not include, it should he 1 stst ted, the returns from live stock. Not l Inaty people probably realize that the i6 1 southern states own practically one-third 1 of the cattle swine and sheep of The entire country. and that the increase from this source of wealth is by la, greater than has been the increase in any other section of the country. Then. n .9l4 the finances of the country were completely demoralized; now they are working with potential precision under the federal reserve act. Since that year, too, the farm loan bank has become u emendously constructive force in the producers economic life.
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