New-York tribune., 1918-06-15
Check!

pagne-the sixth day saw the checking
of the onrush. In the present operation
in ne-de-France the sixth day sees a
more complete pause than in the earlier
operations, which amounts to an unmis-
taxable check. What Is even more in
teresting is the fact that to all intents
and purposes the German drive has been
checked since the third day, on which
began series Of French counter attacks
unlike anything in the first three German
operations.
While it is naturally too early to draw
conclusions or to assert that the fourth
German operation is over, there is every
indication that the Germans have spent
that appropriation in divisions which was
allotted to the present drive, and we see
that they have spent them on gain OF
eight miles, as contrasted with forty in
Picardy and thirty in Champagne. For
these gains the German has paid price
comparable only with what he paid in
the last phases Of his attack in Flanders
after French reserves had arrived-an
attack which eliminated in the severe
check Of April 29.
If we regard the operations beginning
on May 27 and on June as portions Of
a single attack, it is fair to conclude that
the German has now used at least sixty
divisions-and possibly seventy divisions
between the Marne at Chateau Thierry
and Montdidier. This unquestionably
means that he has employed half of all
the divisions he possesses on the West
front which are available for an often
sive. He may have left, then, fifty divi-
sions, but certainly has not more than
seventy. These seventy divisions, to
accept the maximum figure, are now
standing somewhere between the Somme
and the sea, facing the British army, and
the great problem Of the moment is
whether the German will now turn his
attention to the British while he reor-
ganizes his corps, concentrates his gains
and builds his communications for new
drive at Paris.
There are at least two theories to be
detected now in foreign comment: The
French theory, which looks for a sus-
tanned drive upon Paris, following the
old Verdun precedent, and the British
theory, which forecasts at least one moro
drive at the British in advance of re-
newal Of the battle for Paris. If you
put it in its simplest form, Ludendorff
is now operating between the British and
the French armies, as Napoleon ma
noeuvred between the British and the
Prussian armies In the Waterloo cam
paign-
In that famous campaign Napoleon OBJ
tanned, by the celebrity Of his movements
and by the surprise Of his enemies,
position between the British and Prus-
sian armies, and endeavored, while at
tacking Wellington at Quatre- Bras, to
overwhelm the Prussians at Ligny. He
defeated the Prussians, but Ney was
substantially unsuccessful at Quatre-
Bras. Napoleon then turned his atten-
tion to the British and sought to defeat
them before the Prussians could come to
their assistance. He failed and lost the
campaign. But the resemblance between
the two operations is clear.
The British assume that the four
! armies massed against them, made up Of
! not more than seventy divisions-the di-
visions which participated in the March
21 drive and have been rested and re-
. fitted-will now strike them and seek
definitely to dispose Of them, as Napo-
leon sought to dispose Of Blicher at
Ligny, and that this will be preparatory
to the blow on Paris. The French feel
that the German losses have been 50
great that the Germans run the risk Of
exhaustion if they attempt another great
operation to the north. We are likely
to see in the next few days which Of the
two views is correct.
Whether the Germans attack in the
north or not, there is every evidence that
a period Of pause is about due before
Paris. They began their present drive
upon Paris at the Aisne on the 9th Of
May and continued it along the Disc on
the 9th Of June. Between the Somme and
the Marne, therefore, German forces have
been in operation for nearly three weeks,
and unless the reserves from the north
are now drawn down and German effort
concentrated in final rush to Paris.
which is highly unlikely, we are likely to
see period Of stagnation and stabiliza-
tion between Montdidier and Chateau
Thierry, interspersed with local thrusts
for dominating positions useful to the
German when he resumes.
We should make mistake not to
recognize that valuable territory has
hssn lost In thu present German often