, 1918-01-17
Victory Possible Only If United
States Puts Everything
Into Fight.
ADMITTED IN HIGH QUARTERS
Authorities Agree That Combined
Might of Entente Allies Is Not
Sufficient to Defeat the
Enemy.
BY JOHN LLOYD eALoERsToN.

SShA tN1oNA ~ ~ ~ ~
The combined might of Great Britain,
France, Russia and Italy is not suffi-
Client to defeat the enemy or even to
take from him all of his gains and re-
establish the balance of power as 1t ex-
listed in 1914. Whether the war is to be
won, or is to end in a draw and a vir-
tual German victory, is a problem the
answer to which must be sought in the
United States.
All this is privately admitted in high
quarters. After all the bloody sacri-
fees, the boastings and the claims that
have been INDUCED in during the last
three years, these things cannot be
openly stated to the peoples of the en-
tente by their statesmen. But they
ought to be known to Americans.
When American officials utter solemn
warnings to the public, they are no in
dulging in oratory exaggerated for the
purpose of encouraging recruiting or
arousing public sentiment; they are
telling the sober truth. or part of 1t,
as communicated by the representa-
tives of the allies.
The writer cannot be accused of sud
denly taking up a pessimistic attitude
" III u Nv "ul ~ VI ~" NooA
trymen. For more thar two years /
have presented dispasslonate views of
the war situation, d%iscounting the
claims of both sides and repeatedly
stating the impossibility of a military
victory either for Germany or the en-
tente unless some new factors entered
into the situation.
TWO New Factors.
Two new factors have appeared, the
submarine anarchy and the belliger-
ency of the United States.
The submarine is biting deep into the
economic life of the world 1t presents
Germany with a chance, not apparent
before, to win the war outright and
dictate terms of peace to PROSTATE enc
niles even more ruthless thai those
which were to have been enforced af-
ter the capture of Paris in September,
1914.
The United States is q potential
force; not, like the submarine, an &c
tual power at the present moment. If
the United States did nothing, Ger
many would win the war. If the Unit
ed States supplied money, and some
ships and some food, the war might
ellu III Il iiVAiN ~
izing the submarine and restoring the
deadlock as 1t existed before last e
ruary. If, and only If, the United States
puts everything into the fight with all
possible speed, her Intervention will
outweigh the submarine in the balance
and win the war.
1t is only by visualizing the world
situation as q whole, examined In the
light of reason n not in the rosy
hues of patriotism or sentiment, thai
the nature of the task can be made
clear. To do his the Investigator
must know something about he mill
tary Of the two alliances,
how many troops they have in the field
and what reserves are backing up the
combatants, and he must know as well
the figures of lost tonnage, the rate at
which ships SUM are being replaced,
and the facts about the food prospects.
Then, by co-relating the factors mill
tary, economic and naval, II not for
getting the moral factors, he can form
some judgment as to the prospects of
the war. The writer is not in the con-
fdence of any high commands; but the
broad truths about the armies, the sub
marines, and the foOd shortage are
well known In informed circles, even
though they cannot be discussed in the
press. In n newspaper dispatch gener-
alIZations can be made, but the fact
upon which they are based cannot be
put forward. l can only say thai all
the statements in this story rest upon
what l believe to be accurate informa-
ton.
Length of War Important Question.
The most important question for
Americans ut present is the length of
the war, because upon this point de-
ponds the question of effective Ameri-
can cooperation. There is very little
possibility that Germany can be
beaten in the field in decisive fashion
within two years. This is an opinion
widespread among military men, to
which almost any man conversant with
the approximate field strength Of both
alliances would heartily subscribe.
To say this Is not to say that the
war will last two years. If the United
States Will promptly raise and equip an
army of millions, 1t will be possible to
put great numbers Of troops or the
western front next spring and summer
and to have an army in Europe at the
beginning Of the sixth campaigning sea
son, in 1919, capable of winning the
war. This being true, the Germans
may capitulate before that time; but
they will only do so If convinced that
America is willing and able to strike
the iinal blow.
on the other hand, the entente can
not last through the two years which
may be necessary to destroy the Ger