The sun., 1918-10-03
ENEMY SEEKS SAFER
GROUND FOR WINTER
Continued from First Page.

that this strategy would be 20 obviously
to Germany's disadvantage that they
can hardly conceive OF 1t being carried
out voluntarily.
Would Not shorten Line Greatly.
Under the old army plans such as pre-
vailed during the Franco-Prussian war
Of 1870 withdrawal to the frontier meant
greatly shortening the line. But now
that Germany has violated the neutral
lily OF Belgium and made that country a
battle ground the line 10 not shortened
greatly. even II the retirement was car
ried to her own frontier.
The disadvantage ito Germany Of hav-
ing the battle line established on her
own frontier would be felt in countless
ways. German cities and towns, which
30 far have been untouched by the war.
would come In for continual lombard
ment and aircraft attacks. The war
would be brought right home to parts Of
Germany where war enthusiasm has
never been very high anyway. and the
effect on the German morale would be
obvious.
Besides, when the allied and Ameri-
can drive begins in the spring German
territory would be virtually within q
stones throw Of the invaders. No de-
fensive positions no matter how con-
structed, can resist concentrated at
| tacks provided the attacking force Is
willing to 'expend the necessary amount
| Of high explosives and man power. The
German high command fully realizes
this, 1t is pointed out.
Heavy Resistance Is Anticipated.
General Stan officers therefore believe
that II the Germans retreat to their own
l will he
| other choice. These officers expect to
see the most stubborn resistance on the
part of the Germans prior to the execu-
| tion Of any such plan. They believe the
/ present German policy is simply to re-
treat as slowly as Is commensurate with
| safety. Where there are evidences OF
rapid retreat 1t is because the defending
forces have been hit so hard that danger
of a real calamity threatens and forces
them backward faster than the German
high command expected.
The belief in General Staff circles is
that Germany will seek to 60 into winter
| quarters on French and Belgian soil
The report that the Germans are going
to evacuate Belgium for political reasons
Is not for a moment regarded as worthy
OF credence. 1T is believed possible that
German leaders foreseeing the danger
OF the Teutonic troops being forced out
| OF belgium are TAXING ADVANCE MEASURES
| to excuse this disaster on the ground
that the Withdrawal is accentusted by
altruistic motives.
| VIII Try to save Supplies.
The readiness to evacuate Belgium
and portions Of northern France does
not mean that the German High Com
mand expects to do so unless forced to
1t. army experts explain. Whenever
| there Is danger OF being Obliged tc
withdraw rolling stock and other sup
plies are moved to the rear as a mat
ter of precaution. 1t means that ir
case tho Germans have to withdraw
they will not risk losing these supplies
and IL they can hold their positions the
supplies can easily be brought back to
them later.
Germany Is now counting on the win.
ter to give her respite, and for thi.
reason over optimism here or the belief
that the end Of the war may come this
year Is not encouraged. Those who
should understand the military situation
best warn specifically against this belief
and say frankly that It affects the wal
preparations Of the nation and further.
more Is bound to lead to an unfortunate
reaction when the truth later dawns
Winter is always the great ally of the
armies in trouble. The German armies
are admittedly in trouble. but winter 4.
almost here. There will be no fighting
CT consequence during the cold days. The