Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-10-13
CAMPAIGN OF 1919 NECESSARY
TO WIN WAR, MR.. SIMONDS SAYS
No Military Decision This Year Likely, and Sur
render of Germany Before Army Is Beaten Hardly Be-
.Expected-German People May Prefer to Prolong War
in the Hope of Bene6ting by Negotiated Peace.

termined by the nations whom she
has attacked This is what surrender
means: 1t means that the German
must submit his will to that of civil
liza lion and take his chance.
Now, does the military situation
warrant the expectation of such a sur
render at the close of the present
campaign? Let us analyze the facts
We have by our victories OF July de-
prived the German of the initiative.
not for the time being, but for the
balance of the war. We have by our
August offensive turned him out OF
the lines of 1916, on which he accept
ed battle. We are at the present mo-
ment sweeping him out of the Hin
denburg line. 1t is already clear that
and the Belgian frontier, and he has
in two months and a half lost more
than quarter of a million prisoners.
nearly four thousand guns and war
material without, measure.
On the basis of what has happened
since July Is, on the west front. we
are justified in demanding and expect
ing that Germany will consent to
evacuate the rest of, France and all
of Belgium, abandon all claim for IN
her lost colonies. Meantime. in, the
east, the victory of the army of the
orient has eliminated Bulgaria and
broken the German edifice Of Mlttel-
europa into fragments. Coincident
with this disaster has been the defeat
of the Turk in Palestine and the crea-
ton of d situation which must mex
orably lead 20 the surrender of Turkey
on Bulgarian terms and the final liq-
uidation of the estates of Germany's
eastern allies on the terms of Ger
many's allies.
At no distant date all of Serbia will
he free, all of Bulgaria will be in our
hands, the Turk will have surrendered
or be at our mercy; Mitteleuropa.
which yesterday reached the Eu-
pirates and the Jordan, will end at
the Carpathians and the Danube. Ger
many has only her Russian conQueStS
left, and upon these her hold is pre-
carious, while she has now to guaran-
tee her Austrian ally against Ruma-
man as well as allied attacks at the
south. And unless she can do this
she must expect to see Austria at no
distant time make a separate peace or
fall into anarchy and ruin.
1914 Basis Will Not Suffice.
At the present moment then. Ger
many and her Austrian ally must and
unquestionably will make peace, if
they can, on the basis of 1914. But
We are all of us in America and Eu-
rope agreed that the basis of 1914
must not be restored. We mean to
erect a stronger Rumania, a greater
Serbia. to bar forever Teutonic ex-
panSion toward the south: we have
recognized the CZecho-SlovakS in Be-
hemia, we have given unmistakable
pledges with RESPECT to Poland, we
have in a very large measure COM
mitted ourselves to a program which.
in liberating the Slavs of Austria
and the Poles of Russia, insures the
dissolution of the HapSburg empire
and the erection of Polish barrier to
Teutonism in the east.
In the present mood of the world it
seems to me unmiStakable that any
list of peace conditions would include
a Poland which reached the Baltic at
Danziz and comprehend Posen as well
as western Galicia. In the same fash
ion we have accepted the view that
the Jugo-SlavS shall occupy all OF the
Adriatic littoral save for the portions
which belong rightfully to Italy. We
have determined that Alsace-Lorraine
shall return to France, and we have
resolved that Germany shall pay dollar
for dollar and brick for brick for the
terrible devaStationS of her army in
Belgium and in France.
All of this means but one thing. 1t
means that the Germany which
energies from this war will be weak
ened as no other nation at war will
be weakened: it means that the Ger
mans will have to lay aside all the
dreams which they have cherished for
half a century-dreamS of world power
and accept conditions growing out of
their conduct of the war which will
for a generation leave Germany Grip
pied. 1 do not think there is a sim
gle one of the conditions which have
sketched above which is not conSo-
nanr with the conscience and the sense
of justice Of civilization. I do not
think any one of them is non-essen-
tial to the making of safe peace and
an honorable peace. a peace which
shall guarantee the world against an
other tragedy. But granted all this,
Is the German military situation So
bad that Germany will accept such
terms?
German Army Still Strong.
1 do not believe this is the case. On
the contrary, the German armies, de-
spite great reverses. are still nu-
merous. powerful capable of sustain
ed resistance. They have before them
a whole winter for recuperation after
q few weeks more of fighting. and
they have behind them admirabl
lines of resistance still far outside of
German territory. If we conceive that
the Germans will halt at the line of
Antwerp Journal MeziereS Metz, AT
the end of the present campaign, we
may see them standing on the far
shorter and stronger line of Antwerp
Brussels. Namur-MeZieres-M Metz in the
spring, or even at the line of the
Mouse from Holland to the front