The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1918-12-09
FIRM UNDERGONE MARKS \
UNCERTAIN PRICE CHANGES
Investment Situation MISUNDERSTANDING During
Transition of Industries Discussed
Foreign Trade Outlook
ny WILLIAM JUsTus BoIEs.

almost entirely professional. except for
considerable volume OF investment or
ders. with a significant increase in odd lot
business. The spectators for tho de-
cline became less venturesome as soon
rs they detected signs OF real support.
The outside public has not as yet become
an important factor. except for the con-
siderable volume o. investment orders
that were executed. Tive market itself
Is In n transition stage and while the
buying has been e. no time impressive.
such liquidation as has been seen had
little depressing influence.
The market is In a waiting attitude,
which in such n situation as exists to-
day means that II In prepared for almost
anything that may happen. There Is
little incentive for bullish speculation.
even II the offerings OF time money were
large enough TO inaIlce such demon
stration. On the other hand. there are so
many strong points In the situation that
the bears are tinld about extending
their commitments. Approach OF the
period when the semi-annual dividend
and interest fund IN to be disbursed gives
interest to the probable attitude OF the
year end investors. A good deal may
happen within the next fortnight to
change conditions and It is possible that
the market may reflect the sort OF ac-
tivi:y which is often seen in the closing
days OF the year. Increased absorption
Of short term notes has been sufficiently
impressive TO warrant the belief that the
January markets may witness an i'm
portant resumption OF corporate hnan-
cling. The Capital Issues Committee, al
has liberalized its rulings so as to per-
NIT the offering OF a variety OF loans
which a few weeks ago would not have
been authorized. The output OF new Sc
curities up to September 1 showed a
falling off OF nearly 40 per cent. COM
pared with the security offerings during
the first eleven months Of 1917. There
Is therefore = shortage In securities over
normal years IL the Liberty Loan issues
are not taken into account.
The probability Is therefore that pros
porous corporations will find It possible to
place with the public a large volume OF
financing which they were not able to
arrange during the period when the ma
ton was at war. High grade municipal
bonds In some instances have ad-
vanced to leve. at which savings
banks find it difficult to obtain a sat-
isfactory Investment yield. The better
grade railroad bonds have held strong
at prices which show a material rise
from the low level OF the yea. The
January investor ia likely TO become
an important factor in the bond mar
ket provided nothing develops at the
peace conference to upset conditions.
The general investment outlook is more
reassurinR than II has been r.. any
time since the world war began. TO-
while the transition era presents many
uncertainties, the greatest bullish de-
velopment of moderr times has been the
stoppage of the war and the ending Of
the ,rightful waste which the terrific
struggle involved. The prospective
Fifth Liberty Loan offering is still the
biggest thing on the horizon. slthough it
is recognized that a victory loan rum
ming five or ten years, with possibly an
increased interest rate, may be much
easier 20 place than were any OF the
longer term issues.
Keep an Eye on Carter Glass.
It will be interesting TO follow the
activities Of the Federal Reserve Board
under the craftsmanship OF Carter
Glass the new Secretary OF the Treas
ury. Mr.. Glass had a great deal to do
with framing the Federal Reserve Act
and he may be expected to take n keen
interest In directing the development
n 2 n saFfV he ~ 49,.
period upon which the country has en-
tered. The Federal Reserve Board Is
10 finance what the United States SUI
preme Court is to law. Both are indis-
pen:able and have n strong hold on the
peop.e. Mr.. Glass may he depended unon
to combat every unsound proposal and
reject the foolish suggestions made 10
the Federal Reserve Board whenever q
c-isis arises. The new Secretary will
enter upon his duties at a critical time
In American finance. He has large
service 10 perform and few people ia
miliar with the vast machinery of the
Treasury will envy him his task But
Il -.