New-York tribune., 1918-07-31

OoOCCUCtOfG \1NOW L W. l. IUC%fLoy
served an equality Of standard with
respect to all their divisions
Again, if Rupprecht Of Bavaria re-
turns to the attack against Haig he must
attack out of one of two salients, each
resembling the Marne salient, which has
proven so disastrous for the Germans
If he attempts to push in the wedge
south of Ypres, he must present two
fanks to the foe and risk counter
thrust like that which won the recent
from Ypres. If he strikes for Amiens, he
leaves Foch an opening flank, either be-
tween Albert and Arras or between
Montdidier and the Oise
If the German thrust fails, as the
Marne thrust failed, the counter attack
is bound to come, for Foch will never
go back to the completely defensive
strategy, and such thrust would in
volve retreat to the old Hindenburg
line, or else a fatal retreat in Flanders.
If Foch has, as yet, no decisive or con-
siderable superiority in numbers, he has
at least an unquestioned equality and
can afford counter offensive whenever
the German original thrust fails.
AS it stands, Foch can afford to let the
Germans make the first move, and, for
moral if not for military reasons, they
can hardly refrain from making this
move. But it has become excessively
risky for them to undertake a new Of
fensive, which would eat up the last re-
serve divisions of shock troops and in
sure counter thrust if it failed, coun-
ter thrust bound to be exceedingly dan
gerous, as the Marine experience has Just
demonstrated.
On the other hand, Foch is in no posi-
tion to let loose a general offensive, such
as the Germans have been indulging in.
Should he undertake this and fail, the
Germans would be able to pass to the Of
fensive again with far better chances of
success than they now have. AS far as
one can see, the waiting game, with GER
tain clear notifications, remains the best
game for the Allied commander in chief.
His numbers are growing, he has mas
tered the new German method of attack.
he has pulled down both the strength
and the confidence of his foes enormous
ly, and he is in a position to profit in
stantly by any miscalculation of theirs.
If the Germans try new offensive
and fail, then may come the moment for
the general offensive of the Allies. This
will depend upon the extent of the Ger
man failure and the effect of the defeat
upon the morale of their army. But, all
things considered, Foch seems unlikely
to attempt a Ludendorfian stroke now.
On the other hand, he can and NAV null
tiply his local operations and worry and
dlsconcert German commanders by rela-
lively minor operations at various points
lie is sure to do this if he does not desire
the Germans to deliver another great
blow. But for many reasons he may de-
sire that such blow be delivered.
Ludendorff is not likely again to pos
sess the initiative, as he did from March
21 to July Is. The conditions have en-
tirely changed and Foch is in far diff
ferent situation, having the power to
deal blow for blow with Ludendorf.
meet offensive with counter offensive and
wait or strike as he may choose. instead
of waiting to be struck, as he has had to
do hitherto for many months. Luden-
dortf may have to strike, whether he is
in condition to bring off a great suc-
cess or not, because of political reasons.
but when political begin to Interfere
with military reasons disasters come
thick and fast, as the French experience
IN the last war with Germany demon
strated.
Public attention continues to be fixed
upon the fighting in what is left of the
Marne salient, but in the larger sense
TINS phase is already completed. The
uermans have got away and are 60
ing presently to stand at the line thew
nave been preparing, probably at the
Vesle, possibly at the Aisne At either
place their positions will be too strong