The sun., 1918-10-21
81 Vacancies to Be Filled at
Coming Election-Five
Caused by Death.
COP. HOPES FRIGHTENING
Indications Point to POSSIBLE
ity Of Dominating Upper
House by Four.
Special oaspofcA to TIE Sow.

of the forthcoming election Is presented
In the surface indications OF the battle
now going on In the States that have
seats In the upper house to I'LL this fall.
IL either side has a margin at all as
result Of the voting It apparently will be
q small one.
While the hopes of the Republicans
for gaining the Senate are Frightening.
yet they have SO much further TO 70 to
make sure their domination of the upper
house that even with the political swing
quite their way there Is scant assurance
that It will swing them into power.
The Senate at present Is composed OF
fifty-two Democrats and fortyfour Re
publicans In the coming elections
thirty-two vacancies occasioned by eN-
piration OF terms are to be filled. In ad-
dillon there will be an election In New
Hampshire to Ali the unexpfed term of
Senator Gallinger (Republican>, an cleo
ton in Louisiana to fill the unexpired
term of Senator Broussard (DemocraO,
an election in Nevada to fill the unex-
pired term of Senator Newlands (Demo-
craft, one In Idaho to fill the uneXpired
term of Senator Brady (Republican),
and one in Missouri to I'LL the unexpired
term Of Senator Stone (DemocraO. all
i've Of whom have died In the course OF
tbs present Congress-
Vacancies Caused by Death.
In each Of the cases above cited a
Senator has died. In all of them the
date Of expiration OF the term would
have been March ,, 1891. There have
been other deaths in the Senate. but all
were included In the class OF 1919. The
appointed incumbents in all the cases
cited will either be returned or replaced
in ehe elections of November :.
The Republicans are apparently pretty
certain of success in two States where n
Democrat is to-day the sitting member
This must not be taken to mean that there
are not numerous other opportunities for
the Republicans to register n gain: in
deed the chances favor the Republicans
IN i've States. But two seats regarded
AZ certainties are those In Illinois and
Kansas-
q In Illinois the campaign OF Represen-
tative MeGill Mccormick to succeed
James Ham Lewis has been under way
for weeks. Mccormick is making su-
perb run. The swing Is with him. and
the nhonisans are reported 70 be pay
ing scant heed to the despairing Demo-
4 cratic efforts for votes for Lewis on the
ground that a vote against him Is
vote Of lack OF confidence in the Presi-
dent Normally the State is heavily Re
publican anyway.
Capper Ahead in Kansas.
In Kansas Arthur Capper, who won
the Governorship In 1915 by a, majority
of 10000. Is running away from Sena-
tor William II. Thompson. Cappers
election Ia regarded as certain. .
This eliminates two Democrats from
the present Senate roster, and without
other changes would leave the Senate
standing Democrats 80, Republicans 46.
But there are three other States
where Republicans have the edge dis
sinctiy on their Democratic opponents.
These States are Delaware, where Sem
ator Salisbury is being fought by n re-
organized and pacified Republican or
ganization in a pocket borough with
a normal Republican majority of 5000
to combat Nevada, where the plain but
popular Ed Roberts, now Representa-
tive. Is the Republican candidate against
Senator Charles Henderson, and the
fight complicated by the presence OF
Miss Ann Martin, Nationa! Womans
party. running as an independent. and
New Hampshire. where George II.
Moses, Republican. and John ID. jamie
son, Democrat, are contesting for the
Gallinger seat.
The election in the same State of Gov.
z VI. w. Reyes, Republican, to the seat to
be vacated by Senator Hollis. Democrat,
on March 3. seems to be almost n GER
tainty at this time.
How G. o. p. Can Get Majority.
Republican victories in these States
with no compensatory losses by Repubi-
cans elsewhere would make the Senate
stand, republicans 40, Dmocrats Al,
n fNk-n uff,ro Ao
be elected. Senator Borah is a candi-
date to succeed himself There Is every
reason to believe he will be successful
Situation in Montana.
This is nearly although not quite the
extreme measure of possible Republican
gains. There is not an absolute GER
tainty that Senator Walsh. Democrat,
will be returned in Montana. The in
trusion of Representative Jeanette
Rankin, defeated in the Republican
primaries as an Independent candidate
has complicated the situation.
The third eventuality which might
send Republican to represent Dem
ocratic State in the Senate is Missouri.
Adding the three outside chances to
the foregoing Republican possibilities the
extreme limit of possible Republican
gain is found TO make a Senate with
SO Republicans, 43 Democrats.
Inere seems TO be at this time an ele-
ment OF danger for only three Repub-
lican seats in the Senate as now consti-
tuted. In 1916 Rhode Island surprised
the whole nation by returning Senator
Peter Goelet Gerry. Democrat, In place
OF Senator Lippitt Republican. This
year. Representative George f..
O'Shaughnessy. Democrat. is running
against lie Baron Colt, the Republican
Incumbent. Here is a chance for Dem
ocratic gain of one seat.
A hitter fight is In progress in West
Virginia, with Clarence Watson, Demo-
crat. millionaire, trying II out with Davis
Elkins. Republican. millionaire. for the
seat vacated by the retirement of Sem
ator Nathan Goff. Watson may over
come the normal Republican majority.
which has from time to time showed
signs OF disintegration in late years, and
may pull through, Here IL presented an
other opportunity for Democratic gain.
Chance FOR Democrats.
Therefore the openings for Democratic
gains total three In States now repre-
scented by Republican,, and this Is the
limit or gains of this sort unless the I'M
expected should happen in Michigan and
Henry Ford carry the State as an indie
pendent running with Endorsement of
the Democratic party. II he does this
ne must transform n Republican normal
majority Of about $4,000 70 a Demo
cratic plurality.
Analysing down TO the last measure
of probability the indications at this
Time would seem TO point to "A Repub-
mean gam or four seats. II the Demo