New-York tribune., 1918-12-22

Examination of the reports Of
.,n,n,ercial agencies and inquiry
.mong leadinr manufacturers dis
.,ose Q ratt L unusual situation.
petail business is extremely active
throughout the country. 1t is true
tbat this is partly seasonal activity
Christmas spending being on a
Gorgeous scale-~but the volume of
rstail business in other than holiday
caods. while perhaps not so large
&C Il was before the armistice was
s;oned. is still well above normal.
There is no reason why it shouldn't
be Spending power is enormous.
While workers are not making so
wuch on overtime and holiday jobs,
there is little or no unemployment.
IN fact. the shortage of labor is still
IN evidence; it is only somewhat less
ocute And when the mass of the
reople have money to spend they
spend it.
Yet there is d general disposition
the product of price uncertainties
ON the part of the retailers to pur-
chase no more than is required to
meet current demands-to fill in
temporarily exhausted lines. For
ward buying is perhaps in smaller
1oc
time; and it will be remembered
that for a considerable period mer-
chants have been cautious about
committing themselves very far
ahead Just now they are cancel
ling orders rather than giving new
ones.
This seemingly makes rather
gloomy picture, but it is one that
is net without ITS favorable aspects.
Looking at the diverse side, it will
be noted that as result of the con-
ditions mentioned the reserve stocks
of retailers have been drawn down
almost to the point of exhaustion.
Their shelves may not be bare, but
certainly their storerooms are but
scantily supplied. And in Europe
and certain other places which have
been unable to obtain goods in the
quantities desired for several years
conditions approaching a famine in
goods are reported. The National
City Bank is not exaggerating
greatly when it states that "the
worlds shelves are bare"
1t is to be expected, therefore,
that the period Of hesitation through
which we are now passing will be
succeeded by one Of great activity.
When retailers decide that they can
safely go ahead-and that decision
no doubt will be made as soon as
confidence in the stability of prices,
whether at the present or lower
level, becomes general-there will
almost certainly arise a sudden de-
mand for goods so large that pro-
ducers may be unable to satisfy it.
Take the situation in certain of
the garment making industries-it
is more or less typical of trade in
general. The thrift campaign
caused a marked decline in the con-
sumption of civilian garments and
was accompanied by the diversion of
production to military lines. Now,
having saved money by refraining
from buying, for patriotic reasons, is
1t not to be expected that people
will, to say the least, be inclined to
satisfy their desires for such neces-
sary articles as clothing? And, in
addition, hundreds of thousands of
soldiers, returning to civil life, will
need civilian equipment. When the
demands from these sources begin
70 make themselves felt in the vari-
Gus fields of trade sharp revival
Of general business may be ex-
pected.
1t is then that Wall Street may
expect renewal of public interest
IN the stock market. When the time
comes there will be no money re-
strictionS.