New-York tribune., 1918-11-04
Finance . Economics
WALL STREET OFFICE.
Mills Building. IS Broad St.

The markets Of the week, both
for commodities and stocks, were
dominated naturally by the pros
poets for an early consummation Of
peace. There still subsists the
sharpest division OF sentiment as to
what may reasonably be expected
is the way Of conditions following
the irruption OF wax. We have
given space, therefore, to an inter
esting review of postwar expert
ences from the monthly circular Of
the National City Bank. It will be
seen from the table which this re-
view contains that in the three
years after the close OF the Civil
War there was considerable, but by
no means universal, decline in
prices. In some very important
products there was even a marked
rise. Wheat, for example, and like
wise flour, reached g higher point
in 1857 and in 1868 than in any
time during the war. Such articles
as dried cod were likewise higher,
butter almost as high. Rice in the
year after the war remained prac-
tically on a war basis. and so did
salt, wool, lime, leather and several
other articles that are quoted. There
was q considerable decline in pig
iron, from high price Of S63 to
around $52. Pork, which reached a
famine price in the last year of the
war, declined very considerably, to
2Sc. Corn was nearly as high three
years after the war as in 1866. The
wide average Of commodities of all
showed decline Of rather
less than 20 per cent. Commodity
prices reached a peak in the winter
before Lees surrender and a low
point in the summer following.
There was then a recovery to about
and this was fairly main
tanned, with some tendency to a
decline in the two years following
In general sort Of way the in
crease in commodity prices appears
to have been just q little greater
than in the last three years.
1t will be seen, therefore, that
those who anticipate q proximate
and speedy return to pre-war levels
find little justification in the past
of this country. And
it is pointed out that some
thing of the same thing was true
in Germany after the Franco -Prus-
sian War. But that war was, Of
course, very brief; and so have been
all other international wars in the
last sixty years or more. Even the
Crimean War had little effect on
trade. And it must always be re-
called that financial troubles had
much to do with the period after
the Civil War. Our national bank
ing system was then in it's infancy;
government legal tender was at
heavy discount, and the general
machinery for restoration to the
normal lines Of business was moth
ing like what it is to-day. The
South had no railroads and in the
West they were just at the begin
ming. Kansas or Nebraska was
then far more remote from the
markets of the seaboard than Idaho
or Arizona to-day. No one can yet
measure what the conversion Of the
United States from a debtor to q
creditor nation will mean.
1t will almost certainly mean either
further imports of gold or the extern
sion of further and very heavy
credits abroad.
Mr.. Thomas Lamont, in an ad-
dress last week, drew attention to
this remarkable change. Where be-
fore the war our foreign indebted
ness exceeded four billions, this has
now been cut down to probably not
much more than one billion, and in
the meanwhile, government and pri-
vate loans abroad reached already a
total Of between nine and ten bill
ions. Even If the war should close
now this will probably be consid-