New-York tribune., 1918-12-06

attitude and the speech OF men, 1t
is easy to precipitate feeling of
decentralization, and no more diff
cult to develop q sentiment of con-
fidence and serenity" And he ad-
ded: Upon careful survey Of the
situation it will be found that
there are many reasons for believ-
ing prosperity in this country
should be continued"
1t is, perhaps, true that the i'm
portance Of the demand for steel
for reconstruction in Europe has
been exaggerated. But that de-
mand will, nevertheless, be factor
in the market for some time to
come-possibly' q factor Of consid-
cradle weight. Moreover, owing to
the urgency OF the war demand,
producing countries the world
over have been unable to secure the
steel they needed, and it is to be
expected that they will purchase
large quantities Of the basic prod
uct now that it will soon be avail
able. On the whole, therefore, the
outlook is for an export business
substantially larger than our ex-
ports before the war, especially
since the American producers, un-
der the Webb law, will be better
able to compete in foreign markets
than they ever were before.
But, after all, it is not upon the
export demand, but upon the re-
quirements Of domestic consumers,
that steel makers must chiefly rely
TO keep their plants going Many
large consumers in this country
have been forced to go without in
order that the supply FOR war pur-
poses might be increased. And
much Of this suppressed demand is
of an urgent character. Moreover,
while the capacity Of American
plants has increased heavily during
the war, it must be remembered
that normal expansion in domestic
requirements would have brought
about large part Of this increase.
IL statistics were available they
might show that the extraordinary
war demand was supplied quite as
much, and perhaps more, by the
suppression Of other consumption as
by the creation Of additional facili-
ties OF production. 1t is interesting
80 note that in the Ave years pre-
ceding The war the output Of pig
iron in this country increased,
roughly, 25 per cent.
In this connection The Iron
Age" q leading trade authority,
has the following to say:
There never was any good ground
Tor assuming that sitter the war the
export market would be in better
position than the domestic market
to absorb an increased tonnage OF
steel Before the war the export
business of all the steel producing
countries was net much more than
one-hals the consumption in the
United States. II noutrals have
been starved IL the matter Of steel
during the war, consumers in the
United States have at least been de-
MED a great deal Of steel they would
have been glad to get. The ability to
pay is certainly factor, ond that
ability certainly EXISTS in the United
States TO greater extent than il
does in the rest Of the world as q
whole.
The American market has always
shown disposition 20 expand, ap-
parently merely By the lapse of
time. Between the industrial depres-
sion of 1s93-'97 and the beginning
OF the war in 1914 there were five
periods Of heavy demand, with
periods Of light demand between.
Thus there have been five pc
RODS of light demand since the boom
of 1899. In each one of those periods
buyers refrained, entirely of their
own volition, from buying heavily,
and yet afterward, when their mood
changed, they bought with avidity
and We're encouraged rather than
discouraged by moderate price ad-
Vances. The recent abstention from
buying has not been voluntary, how
ever. The consumers were not per-
mitted TO have the material because
| it was needed for var purposes. One
should expect the buying to be all
the heavier, merely from that cir
cumstance, while The increase in ca-
pacity in five years is only about
40 per cent.
it does not follow, of course. that
the demand for steel is going to
be large enough to maintain prices
at the present high levels. Prooa-
bly, they will decline, although there
is little prospect, III the opinion of
those best qualified 10 Judge. that
arything like the pre-war level of
prices will be reached. 1t may be
that a relatively slight reduction in
prices would be sufficient TO bring