The Fargo forum and daily republican., 1918-01-19


their own hands full and are begin
ming to feel the strain of the. war
! themselves.
Germany thought France was bled
white at the Verdun time. She belieV-
ed France would give up after a de-
| feat before Verdun. Her calculations
| proved mistaken. France did not
! give up, she was not then bled white,
and she has since that time defeated
German forces in other great en-
gagements. But all these have cost
her dearly, and her great ally, Rus
sia, has deserted her, while her new
ally, America, cannot be ready in
! time TO help her at the supreme
crisis. So Germany will in all human
probability endeaVor to accomplish in
| 1918 what she failed to do in 1915
and in 1914-that is, put France out
before the arrival of allied aid can
save the French,
Now, 1t is clear that IL France Is in
the mood Of the Marne and Of YER
dun the Germans will fail again, be-
cause France Is not yet, despite cruel
| losses, bled white and her armies
are better supplied with guns and
with ammunition than on either
previous occasion. Moreover, what
| ever happens, the French are bound
to have vastly better aid from the
British in the coming struggle than
ever before. At the Marine the Brit
ish were numerically almost neg
IIgible and actually contributed little
to the French victory, For five
months the French held Nerdun
without any British aid, Nothing
like this will happen again, because
today the British have both numbers
and trained numbers. They are
ready, quite as ready as the Ger
mans can possibly be.
One does not prophesy but the
conditions of the contest are plain.
The Germans will be able to put
superior numbers and for the
moment, superior artillery at the
point or points on the Franch front
which they select for battering, If
the French hold as they did at Yer
dun the result will be a colossal Ger
man defeat, however great the French
losses, If, as the Germans assert,
France cannot stand this new sacrl-
flee, we shall see a break, and Ger
many will win the war. But if We see
another Verdun Germany will have
shot her bolt, and she will seek a
negotiated peace next fall on far. diff
ferent terms from any she has yet
suggested, with the purpose to avoid
an allied attack in 1919, when the
United States is at last ready.
Now, the next question is,
patiently! Where on the French
front will the Germans attack? Either
in Champagne or in Lorraine, the
majority OF observers believe; possi-
bly, in both places. Rheims and
Nancy are the two objectives most
generally suggested, not as ultimate,
but as immediate objectives. That
the Germans will attack west of the
Disc, where the British will probably
take over French positions, If they
have not done so already, is tmprob-
able. That they will attack the
Chemin -des DANES front where the
French have all the high ground, is
unlikely when it is recalled how
desperate was the German resistance
there for more than three years.
In the same fashion we may rule
out the front from the western end
of the Argonne to the southern de-
fences of Verdun. Germany has
tested these defences in two great
attacks, in the Argonne in 1914 and
1915 and about Verdun in 1916 ana
the French have been able to retain
or regain all the vital positions. In
the Vosges front, which offers too
great natural obstacles to any often
siVe on the present scale. Even the
Belfort gap is unlikely to be assall-
ed, because its strength and the
proximity Of Switzerland would
combine to hamper the Germans.
On the other hand, the French !
position between the Aisne and the
MoronvilIers hills Is far from idea.
while their lines along the plain or !
dusty" Champagne offer target
destitute OF any great natural de-
fences. In the same way the French t
lines in Lorraine, both west and east /
Of the Moselle river, are exposed to
an attack from the north or from the /
east. and the Germans would have |
here the supreme advantage OF Oper- /
ating from their own territory, with /
the great bases of Metz and StraS-
burg close behind the front.
Unless all signs fail, the German
attack will not be a single drive like /
the Verdun operation, which failed.
Almost without exception the great /
German successes have been enVelop- |
ing movements, of which Metz ana |
were classic examples in the 1
Franco -Prussian war. The advance
upon Paris in 1914 was an enveloplng
movement, conducted on both TANKS, i
but necessarily transformed into an
operation by a single flank, when
defeated the eastern flank
before Nancy. The great campaign I
in Poland in 1916 was a double I
enveloping movement carried out by
IaclSensen, advancing from Galicia,
and Hiudenburg, striking south from
East Prussia, The recent Italian sue i
cess and the earlier Serbian conquest
were of the same sort.
Now, the French position about
Verdun is such that were the Ger
mans able to break through the
French line both west and east OF
the Meuse stronghold a great and
disassroug retreat would follow. a
double success both in the dusty
and, say, about ST.
MihieI would compel the French to
retire from the Meuse and breach Il
the whole wall Of natural defences
From Verdun southwark. The Ger
mans would be able 20 cut the rail-
roads leading from Paris to the east
srn frontier at ChalOns and at Bar
Is.Duo.- and the line east Of Barsle- Il