New-York tribune., 1918-02-13
American and Diplomatic
Observers See Vast
Problem Ahead
Ukraine Too Remote
To Give Much Help
Disorganized Systems of
Transportation Seen as
Great Obstacle
fRv The Associated Prcssl /


WASHINGTON, Feb. 12.-With the
,,eninc of the great campaign of 1918
IN the Western front apparently
within sight, military men here cx-
.mined to-day with profound interest
,be situation created by the signing of
peace pact between the Central Pow
ers and the new Ukraine republic, and
.be decision of the Rolshevik Russian
government to stop fighting and do
mobilize the army.
Their conclusions we're not discour-
aring. These events on their face
would appear to set free enormous Ger
man forces for the impending battle in
the West and also to furnish new
sources of food supply for the Teutonic
allies. but many factors detract from
the advantages the Central Powers may
derive.
One of the threats against the West
ern front dwelt upon in public discus
sion is the fact that presumably 1,500,-
900 prisoners of war held in Russia
would be released to siren .,then the
German army. The fact is said to be,
however, that the great majority of the
soldiers captured by the Russians are
Austrans, not available for Western
front operations by present indications.
Most Of the others are civilians or
camp followers of one kind or another.
and, so far as known, only q small num-
Der Ct German troops were captured op
that front Any men from the prison
camps are regarded as of doubtful mill
tary value for some time to come. as
the Russians. unable to feed their own
soldiers, hardly have improved the
health Of captlves
Doubt Food Transport
There is doubt here also as to the ex-
tent to which the food resources of the
Ukraine or of Russia can be brought 20
the aid Of the German people in the
near future, for it was failure of the
Russian transportation system that
worked in Germany's interest in under
mining the lighting power of the Rus.
sian armies.
The same condition now, necessarily.
works against the Central Powers in
their desire to get out food supplies.
Moreover, the remote location of the
kraine, with its agricultural system
IN such poor condition that it NAV
have to be made over, will present a
difficult problem, in view of the con-
fusion that prevails throughout that
region.
Demobiization of the Russian army
VIII not mean that the Austro- German
Bulgar forces on the frontiers can be
wholly Withdrawn. There will be
constant threat of renewed hostilities,
and the Teutons must see to it that
ample force is always at hand.
In fact, diplomatic observers say,
Germany is confronted with the most
ttficult and unprecedented problem
She has met during the present war
as result of the declaration that Rus
sia has abandoned hostilities without
the signing Of a peace treaty The re-
fusal of the Russians to sign any
treaties alternating the Russian West
ern provinces, the diplomats point out,
Will leave the Central Powers without
any legal claim to their possession.
German and Austrian tenure will rest,
entirely upon the assertion Of force, !,
"tnout recognition OF international
law, and consequently must be sub
Ject to the decision of whatever form
OF tribunal finally determines the
basis Of general peace.
Trouble in Sight
Should Germany and Austria re-
solve to refuse to recognize the Boil
shevik decree as terminating the war,
without the confirmation of that &C
Non by treaty in the usual form, their
armies would be in the position of
Killing an unresisting and unarmed
people, proceeding regarded here as
certain to cause trouble for the Teu-
tonic governments with their people at
nome. An appeal from the Russian
PEASANTS to the working classes of
Germany and Austria. it is believed
here, would not fail of sympathetic
response, embarrassing to the military
parties.
The United States never has recog.
nlzed the Bolshevik regime, and Rus
sia's abandonment of the war will not
after existing relations. This was made
;lear at the State Department to-day,
"nere 1T also was stated that the for
MAJ signing of peace treaty by the