Evening star., 1918-08-11
Former Peace OHensives' Wrecked Russia.
Weakened Italy-Foch's Victory Makes
Military Decision for Huns Impossible.

other to say she has lost the war.
Stfll third statement is the declara-
tion that we. the nations which are
allied against Germany, have won the
struggle. This last is emphatically
not the case. Norris 1t true that Ger
many has lost the war. She has dost
the chance OF winning it on the battle
field: she has other methods, and they
are bound to be used now to the ut
termost.
Germany was beaten in 1915 at the
close Of the campaign of that year. and
She knew 1t. Accordingly the kaiser
proposed peace. not because he de-
sired peace, not because his proposal
was intended to be the basis of a set
Element on an honorable and possible
basis, but because he reckoned that
a proposal of peace might disarm his
foes and accomplish what his armies
had failed to bring about, namely. a
real German victory. His calculations
were amazingly correct. His peace
proposals threw his foes into confu-
sion, ultimately led to Russia's col
lapse, temporarily brought Italy to
the point of seeming impotence and
enabled the German army to enter the
campaign of 1918 with a new chance
to acquire military decision.
New Peace Drive Soon.
Beyond all doubt the kaiser will now
repeat his strategy of 1916 and we
shall have a new proposal of peace
within brief time. probably the mo-
ment that some considerable but rela-
lively unimportant German success,
such as still remains possible, tends
to give a temporary lie to the facts in
the German military situation in the
west. There will then be a frank
declaration, such a declaration as
kuehlmann made the other day, that
no military decision is possible. Both
sides have made the try; both sides
have made at least three tremendous
failures; therefore. the Germans will
reason. military decision is i'm
possible and peace by negotiation is
the only way out of a situation which
is bringing about the bankruptcy of
civilization.
When this situation develops it is
essential for every allied observer to
remember that Paris is once more in
danger. for the German viii be seek
ing by the most ingenious and sus-
tained effort to win the French ma
tion into making a separate peace, a
peace which will be as attractive, in
German propaganda. as that peace
without indemnities or annexations'
which lured Russia to ruin at Brest-
Litovsk- Not less appealing bait will
be held out to Italy. like France, in
vaded and far more than France ex-
posed to internal dangers of dis
ruptive sort
Hun Allies Growing Weaker.
Germany means to win the war by
her peace offensive. now that her war
ix,a l1c F1, La
time is just as much against her in
the new operation as in the old. Tur-
key and Bulgaria are becoming res
tive; Austria is on the edge of revo-
lution-to be sure. like a donkey on
mountain trail. Austrian statesmen
seem always to select the outer and
dangerous edge. but the present sit
uation is more critical than any that
has preceded. If German peace op-
erations were delayed over a long pc
riod. Turkey and Bulgaria might es.
cape the German leading strings and
Even Austria might break under the
strain.
We shall have next winter. there
fore, to repel the peace offensive de-
signed to enable Germany to keep a
respectable. a larger share of the
shall have the peace offensive supple
mented by much military threaten
ing. Cnquestionably the promise to
devastate all of France still in Ger
man hands, as well as Belgium, in
the fashion Picardy was devastated
one gentle German hint to France as
to the advisability of coming to an
arrangement. And until that peace
offensive. is defeated we must face
the TACT that We may still lose the
war.
Another Year of Fighting.
But If the peace offensive fails. as
the war offensive has Enthusiastically
failed, there is still ahead of US al
least one year more of terrific and
costly fighting before We can begin
TO nope to win the war in the only
way that it can be won-namely
upon the battlefield. And in that time
each temporary reverse, each check
each delay, will serve the Germans
as a new basis for their peace of
fensive and a new foundation for
cision is possible. OF the three stages
that have to be covered before we
come to the point where real peace
Is possible We have but passed the
first, or are just coming to the end
OF 1t. 1t has been in a sense the most
critical OF all, but it has also been
the Simplest, because, in the face of a
peril which no man could misunder-
stand, all effort and all energy were
concentrated naturally upon the task
of stopping the enemy. 1t will be less
easy to get the same concentration
in the other two stages
If one could only make IL clear fo,
the balance of the war to all publics
American and allied alike. that tbf
German uses peace and war opera.
tionS in just the same way and fo,
the same end! If he can't conquer a
Zoe ana impose his will upon ar
enemy by his army and by battle. he
tries peace proposal. Whether the
attack be by arms or words, the pur-
pose of the attack is to gain or retain
provinces and plunder. Russia was
conquered by German peace opera.
tions quite as much as by her military
attacks. The Italian defeat at the
Isonzo was procured by peace machi-
nations before it was obtained by
military attack.
The German knows quite well that
il the war goes to a military decision
he will not only lose all that he has
taken in his various campaigns. but
much as in the thirty years war Ger
man rulers know that the defeat OF
the German army will inevitably in
volve changes within Germany which
are, to say the least, unpromising. No
one expects a great moral awaken
ing in Germany. What is to be ex-
pected is that the German, who was
willing to support the existing sys-
tenn because Of its supposed efficiency
and fancied profits, will look for q
new system when the profits are
found to be non-existent.
Therefore the German leadership is
not going to risk the decision upon
the battlefield, which must be against
1t, If 1t can find any way to keep the
provinces and the plunder without
running the ultimate risk. This can
only be accomplished by peace