New-York tribune., 1918-06-24
Time to Go Slow
By Frank II. Simonds
TT is an unmistakable fact that the
events of the past two or three weeks

supply real and considerable pasls AoI
optimism. Three months of the German
offensive in the West have come to an
end, and the last German attack has been
the weakest and the most easily checked
of all. In Italy the announcement Of
the Prime Minister that the Battle of
the Piave may now be considered an
Italian victory is an equally great cause
for satisfaction.
Turning to the reports which come
from Austria, there is further reason for
optimism. However greatly exaggerated
the rumors Of internal dissension and
misery, it must be clear that there IS
a foundation for current reports-a
condition which points clearly to the
disintegration of the Dual Monarchy as
political and military force. Next to
Russia, Austria was in the worst state
of national health of all the combatant
nations when the war began, and it
would be no surprise if Austria were
the next great nation to succumb to
combination Of weakness at home and
defeat on the firing line.
But it is still plain that if we have
stopped the German temporarily in His
fourth offensive he has the power and
the purpose to strike again, to strike
heavily, and even though he does not
win as much territory or as great local
successes as he did before there is every
possibility that he may again achieve
considerable successes which may tam
porarily produce a new crisis on the
West front.
And bearing in mind this possibility, it
is we'll to exercise caution in estimating
the value of current news. Nothing is
more probable than that the moment he
feels his supreme military thrust has
been delivered the German will begin
a new peace offensive. Indeed, there
are already suggestions that he has be-
gun peace offensive employing Austria
once more, as he has so frequently in
the past.
This new German peace offensive
seems designed, like those which
have gone before, to separate France
from her allies by appealing to the war
WEAKNESS in France, naturally greater
than in any other Allied nation, because
the war is being fought on French soil
and French sacrifices are heaviest. Rely
ing upon this weariness, the German will
repeat, II he has not already repeated,
the offers made year ago, which would
include the integrity of France and con-
ceivably some small territorial acquis-
tion in Alsace or Lorraine. Every ef-
fort will be made, as it has been made
In the past, to convince the French that
we Americans will not come in sufficient
numbers or with sufficient promptness
ato save Paris. Every effort will be made
to foment any surviving jealousy be-
tween the French.and the British. Every
appeal will be made to any French self
ishness or natural instinct for self
preservation.
In this situation we can trust France
implicitly. We can be assured that the
France of Clemenceau will stand square,
ly with the allies of the Republic Fort
unately, President Wilson is already on
record unequivocally in the matter of
Alsace-Lorraine, and the French under
stand that the first mission of the Amer
lcan Expedltionary Force is to assure
the defence of Paris, and the second Che
reconquest of the lost French provinces.
Meantime, the obvious German ma
nnuvre which completely fooled the
Allies year ago, when the Reichstag
resolution for peace without an
nexation was accepted by an overcred
ulous world seeking an honorable end
to this hideous tragedy, is likely to be
repeated at any moment. AS German
prospects worsen German pretences of
virtue and moderation are bound to
grow.
we Shall, therefore, do we'll to put aside
for the present and for the future anv
thought that this war can be settled
save by victory over the German armv in
the held and on the Western front An
Austrian collapse, if it comes. will have
an unquestloned value, an unmistakable
influence upon German conditions, but
the war will have to be won by fighting.
not by miracles; by military triumph on
the battlefront, and not by revolution
In the enemy lines behind it.
After almost four years of war tho
German, in June, 1918, is further from
raris than he was in September, 1914.
ne Is no nearer to the Channel than in
OCTOBER 1914. But, by contrast, he still
expects to reach both; he is still un-
oeaten' and at best three months of
lighting weather remain. And when tho
lighting weather is over, if the German
cannot prevail by murder, he will re-
sumo that peace offensive which is m
the whole, more dangerous.
The present omens are good Tbere