The sun., 1918-11-11
ny WILLIAM JusrUs poIEs.


After fifty-one months OF war unset
Element the security markets are fast re-
turning to. peace basis under circum-
stances calculated to change the whole
drift Of investment sentiment through
out the world. The signing Of a peace ar
mistice must be the most momentous event
Of a bullish nature that the markets OF
modern times have been called upon TO
reckon with. No economist nor group OF
economists will ever be able to trace the
full effects OF the war disturbances. For
this reason 1T VIII be impossible for any
one TO forecast the benefits which win
accrue to the world from the stoppage
of this greatest b all wars. The waste
Of war will be ended AMI b,oodshed will
cease. The work OF reconstruction has
already begun. =.
These are changes which o month ago
no one could have foreseen. notwith-
standing the brillixfit victories OF the
allied forces and the obvious breaking
up Of Germany's cruel war machine.
Every Investment purchase for more
than four years has been endangered by
the war hazard. which. however intaugi-
BILE, has been always the factor Of press
ing Importance in the leading securities
markets. This has been the most dificult
of all contingencies to provide for, since
the fortunes OF -esar constitute the most
uncertain risks with which the under
writer's at Lloyd's. london, have to deal.
The reconstruction period will bring its
own problems. but these will be neither
as complex nor as battling as have been
the conditions created here by the
changes forced upon the country by the
shifting fortunes of struggle that has
involved nearly all the civilized world.
The great benefit resulting from an
armistice therefore will be the elimina-
ton OF the war hazard from the worlds
securities markets. This means that the
prices of the war markets will be re-
adjusted to peace times and the normal
order OF trading.
Restoring the Old Order.
1t is nearly Ave years since the finan-
ciai community has been able to think
in terms OF peace. Everything has been
magnif,ed by the war necessities and the
need OF providing stupendous outlays for
the Government and its allies across the
sea. All credits have been readjusted to
war basis. and since last spring the
Federal Reserve Board-the supreme
court OF American finance and In a GER
tain sense of world finance-has been
cautioning the banks to steriiize their
loan account and to make sure that
every loanable dollar was made 100 per
cent. efficient In the work of winning the
war. This crusade was necessary in or
der to prevent an epidemic OF i'll advised
financing and the tying up OF depositors'
money in the frozen Credits repre-
scented by loans to non-productive enter
prises. In discussing the causes leading
to the decline in the percentage of bank
reserves to outstanding liabilities the
Federal Reserve Board pointed out last
week that the public was too much In
c;ined to reply upon the banks as sources
from which to obtain the necessary
funds in financing the requirements OF
tho Government. The board added that
in order to provide for the taking up OF
additional Government loans when Of
sered 1t would be necessary for the people
to cut down their own expenses and TO
apply q portion Of their income to Gov
eminent requirements.
This is plain speaking and means that
a point has been reached in Government
financing where the subscribing public
must, to a greater extent than ever be-
fore, pay for Its own Liberty bonds and
not lAan fnn hal willy uhnn tho ha nla for
assistance The Treasury will have to
bring out one or two additional loans
whether the war ends soon or not and
in order to relieve the banks from hav-
ing to carry an undue proportion Of
these obligations the public must set
about at once to readjust its living ex-
penses, so as to lend the Government
whatever sum may be required to COM
plete the war programme. In this sense
thrift has become a national duty, not
only for the Thrift Stamp buying public.
but also for the vast body of well to do
Americans whose financial support is
essential for the successful fiotation OF
any great Government loan. The situa-
ton Is made more interesting by the
proposed increase in Government taxes
to an extent which will add heavily to
living expenses at time when they are
already extremely bardensome. There
Is need, therefore. of pushing the thrift
movement as vigorously as possible dur
ing the few months which will elapse be-
fore the Governments great victory loan
is announced.
Industrial Reorgs nizat ton.
The country Is face to face with the
perplexlng problems OF the reconstruc-
tion period, when the work of extricat-