El Paso herald. (El Paso, Tex.) 1901-1931, 1918-01-18
# RUSSIA GETS
OUT Of THE WAR
English Writer Answers
Query by Specializing
on the Future.
BY II. SIbEBOTHANI.

London, Eng. Jan. 1s.-What, many
people are asking, viii be the effect
Of Russian peace on our military
prospects. at sea and on land? At
sea the chief effect Will be to raise
the blockade Of foodstuffs in Germany
by next harvest time. There It. it Is
true, something like famine In Russia
now, but it IS due TO the shortage OF
labor, 70 lack of railways and to the
Reorganization OF those that exist.
Peace and German assistance will
soon mend that. and by a year hence
Germany will be as well off for food
as We are. perhaps better off than We
shall be. That will not be a disaster,
for this war has never looked Ike be-
ing decided by shortage OF food
War Mnterialss No.
The really dangerous shortage Is OF
certain materials Of war, and this
will not be cured Dy peace with Rus
STA. If vladivostok were open to
blockade runners, or IL Japan were
to make peace, the situation would be
different. but there is no likelihood
OF either of these events. But peace
with Russia viii make japanese CO.
operation more Indispensable TO US
even than il is. Lastly, the peace will
release the German Baltic fleet for
service elsewhere.
The effects on land viii be more Sc
rious- There are, or were a few
months ago, some so German divisions
on the Russian front. and perhaps 40
Austrian divisions-say, 1,500, 900 men
in all. In addition, Russia holds per-
haps 100000 prisoners. Of which be-
tween 100000 and 400, 900 are German.
The Men Released.
Three and a half millions added to
the German forces on the west would
certainly not be an agreeable pros
pect, but there is not the least pros
pect Of anything like that number
coming true.
To begin with, more than two mil
lions of them are Austrians. who
would not normally be employed in
France. though great numbers would
doubtless be sent against Italy. Again,
large numbers OF the prisoners are
wounded, sick and otherwise en-
feebled- They are scattered all over
Russia, and many of them are in ST.
berla- II would take months to get
them to the frontier and months
again to put them in a state OF phys
ical fitness for service. A considerable
percentage would take care not to re-
turn until after the war.
Russia Must BE Watched.
And. lastly, however satisfactory
from Germany's point of view the
peace with Russia might be, very con-
siderable forces would still have TO
be left to watch her, especially II
nucleus Of resistance TO the peace
survived in southern Russia. Half
million men is a low estimate of the
numbers that would be required to
watch Russia For some time now
the quality Of the German troops on
the Russia front has been falling off
owing to the transference Of the
younger men elsewhere, and their
numbers exaggerate the real strength
Of the troops that could be trans
ferred after the peace.
If We put the total numbers Of Ger
mans who would be released for ser
vice against the allies as 100000 and
of Austrians at 500, 900 we shall prob
ably be over rather than under the
real number Nor can all these be
spared for France and Belgium. Both
Turkey and Bulgaria will ask for
drafts on these new reserves Of man
pow r. but the biggest drafts of all
will be made for munitions and for
essential Industries. The STORAGE OF
labor in Germany and Austria viii be
made good, not Immediately, but
about the same time as the shortage
OF foedstuffs.
4 War Book of Our Own.
The principal permanent effects OF
the Russian surrender, then. are like