Evening star., 1918-01-20

ments, Of which Metx and verdun were
classic examples in the Franco Prussian
war. The advance upon Paris IN 1914
on both tanks. but necessarily trans
flank. when casteinau defeated the
eastern flank before Nancy. The great
enveloping movement carried out by
Mackensen. advancing from Galicia, and
Hindenburg: striking south from East
Prussia: The recent Italian success and
| the earlier Serbian conquest were Of the
! same sort.
Now. the French position about ver-
dun is such that were the Germans
able to break through the French line
both west and east Of the Meuse strong
would follow. A double success both
! in the dusty Champagne and, say.
about ST. Mihiel would compel the
French to retire from the Meuse and
breach the whole wall of natural de-
fenses from Verdun southwark. The
Germans would be able to cut the rail-
roads leading from Paris to the east
ern frontier at Chalons and at Bar-le-
Due. and the line east of Barbecue
as far as Switzerland might be endan-
gered.
Remember. the Germans attempted
something like this in August and Sep
tember. 1914. The crown prince came
south on both sides Of the Argonne
through Vitry-le- Francois and almost
to Bar-le-Duc. while the Bavarfan
and push westward through the
Charmes Gap between the Notifications
of Toul and those of Epinal. This was
only detail in a far greater operation,
and 1t was not generally examined, be-
cause the world was thinking of Paris
and not of Nancy or Barbecue; but
| it was deadly purpose, which, had it
succeeded, might have been almost as
costly to France as the fall of Paris
would have been. :
Enveloping Movement Likely.
All things considered, it seems to me
fairly probable that the Germans will
| some colossal enveloping or turning
movement, based upon the idea of
piercing the French line at two points
widely separated. like the Champagne
plain and the Lorraine front before St
Mihiel or Nancy. and then fsolating and
enveloping the troops and positions be-
tween the two points at which the
break through took place. The British
and French tried the same thing in
their great offensive of 1915, when they
attacked both at Loos and in the
dusty" Champagne. from Souain to the
Araonne. The Germans tried it a bit
earlier and captured Warsaw and
Brest-Litovsk as result, and almost
gobbled up the main Russian army at
Wilma.
verdun, the Somme, tho battle of
Flanders. all have seemed to indicate
that the attack on single front, on
parallel lines. as the Germans say, is
unlikely to succeed in the west. al
though the same method did succeed
shiningly at the Dunajec.
Now. while the French are being at
tackled what will the British do? First
of all, 1t Is far from unlikely that the
Germans will begin a limited retire
! ment from before the British front to
French. They might go back to the
line of Acknowledgement on the
south, and Lille-Roulers-Ostend on the
north. This would compel the British
a systematic attack and it might COM
pei them to risk terrible losses In pre-
mature assaults to save the French by
threatening the German line on their
,, own front
Guns From Russia and Italy.
On the other hand, the Germans
might follow the practice Of the
Somme and of Flanders; they will have
more artillery and machine guns
| thanks to Italian defeat and Russian
failure, and they can then hold on Tor
a limited time to one after another OF
a. series of lines and yet hold them
final assault. In this way they might
slowly draw their troops in front OF
the British back, opposing an elastic
defense. If the attack upon the French
succeeded, the surrender of ground to
the British would have no real value
On the other hand, II they failed they
would be bound to shorten their lines
in any event against the counter attack
Of the allies in the spring of 1919
when the United States was ready.
Sc IN %
Germans may not attack at all in the
west, that they may attack the British
and not the French, and that they may
attack at single point instead OF
trying to make new double penetra-
ton and development. But an attack
upon the British would be an attack
upon an adversary far less exhausted
than the German himself: it would give
as the United States was ready: finally
! it would be an attack against a foe
having all the advantage of position
for whereas between Switzerland and
Rheims there has been little modif1ca-
ton of the front since trench warfare
began. between Rheims and the sea
over the whole of the British front and
the remainder of the French the allies
have advanced and taken the shigh
ground held by the Germans in the
first years Of the contest.
From the mouth Of the User to ST
Quentin the British. with the Belgians
occupy the good positions save only
about La Bassee, where the Germans
hold fragment of their original front
but even here they are in a salient, and
an attack out of a salient Is one of the
most difficult of all military operations
The British made such an attack sue
cessfully out of the Ypres salient last
year, but not AZ advance leading to any
such immediate or considerable profit
as the Germans must have.
What Are Germany's Chances?