The Washington herald., 1918-08-18

their fight TO gain time for US TO
come to their help, that makes the
prediction safe that IL the Germans
do not get decisive successes In the 1
rest Of this summer the balance of
power viii so shift during the months
OF rests and preparation that the
enemy command will have to do what
we are doing this year; remain on
The defensive and meet our attacks
when we choose to make them.
but the German army chiefs see all
this, and they are not going To stop
quietly where they are when their
offensive runs down and wait patient
ly for us to smash them The ex-
traordinary foresight OF the German
stan In solving. before It's oponents,
problems both of the attack and the
defense has gained most of the Kali
ser's victories; and we could guess II
we did not know that the scheme Of
defense against the formidable Amefi-
can attacks to be expected In the next
campaign Is already being Formulated.
There is one supreme dificultr IT,
will confront Ludendorf that VIII need
all his ability to solve. This year, he has
sought victory by tremendous drives
that made great bulges in our lines
these bulges have heightened by more
than 15c miles the front that must ne
held. II attacks that may have been
delivered wien this Is printed make
further dents, more mileage ra@st be
added. Since all the line must be
garrIsoned. each additional mile de-
mands more men in the front
trenches, and, consequently. leaves
less in the reserves. This is all TO
the advantage of the Germans. now
because they have more fighting men
than our side; but, when we nave
succeeded in preventing a final rup-
ture of our front. and in overcoming
by the aid of American reinforce
ments the numerical superiority or
the enemy. the very success that
Germany has won will turn against
her.
In the latter part Of this year. the
additional length of line imposed by
the German pushes of 1913 will be In
our favor, because we will have the
most men. BY the beginning OF
next year, II the lines remained as
they are now, we could throw masses
of reserves against selected sectors
while the bulk of the German forces
would be spread thinly along the
whole front trying to guard every
point at once.
Retreat Soon Possible.
These considerations make II pos
sible that Ludendorff. once he Ii
convinced he cannot drive us back
to the sea, take Paris, or attain any |
thing remotely resembling a mill |
tary decision, will himself retreat. |
To remain in the positions where !
the Germans are now would be TO
expose themselves to almost certain |
disaster when our offensive was put !
under way.
Military opinion Is therefore con- |
WINGED that a German retreat, this
autumn or next winter. is likely. A
recent precedent exists for such an
operation: Ludendorff. taking over
the command with his dummy mas
ter Hindenburg during the end OF
the Somme battles in 1916. shortened
his lines during the winter by retir-
ing from the great Noyon salient
to the st. Quentin-La Fere system of
defenses. The move proved brill
liantlys successful. Not only were
the allied plans for carrying on the
Somme attack in 1917 ruined. but II
was from the line he had chosen for
the purpose. more than a year be-
fore. that Ludendorff launched this
spring his terrible attack against
the Fifth British army.
There is only one possibility that
the enforced retreat this winter may
be avoided. Should the Germans in
their next attack press back the al
lied front in the north for some
miles, they might decide to hold the
longer line because OF the small
space left for our troops to deploy
in, between the BATTLE front and
the sea. In a narrow belt OF ground
| il is impossible to make use Of nu-
merical superiority: and north OF the
Somme. in what the Germans call
the bridgehead of the Pas de
Calais" the British and American
troops have now perhaps just
1 enough. but not any too much room
in which TO naneuver comfortably.
| In this territory. too. the railway
| communications on our side are
poor: we are compelled, for the
! present. to rely to a great extent
! on motor transport. while trunk
| railways from the heart of Germany
| feed the German front.
Early in April, HaiE said to his
! troops. "Our backs are against the
| wall" He meant that, if much more
! ground were lost in the northern
bridgehead, the armies might be so
| congested that a great disaster
| could not be avoided. Today. time
| grows short and American help has
arrived. so that the most the Ger
mans can hope in the north is. not
to drive US into the sea, but to
| gain enough miles more to hamper
| or prevent our offensives in the fu-
] ture from attacking the rirht flank
of their positions in Belgium and
France.
More RuthIessness In Store.
| The German military mind is alb
solutely ruthless; even the fruit and
| shade trees were cut down on the
retirement from the Noyon salient.
early in 1917: not a wall was left
standing. 1t is to be feared. indeed
! it is almost certain, that this terrible
precedent will be followed On much
larger scale during the retreat to a
new, shorter and stronger line that
| Is probable next winter. It will be
the German aim not only to economize
men by having less trench mileage
to hold, but to delay our attacks, and
put upon our labor and engineering
units a superhuman task. by creating
a desert which We must conquer as
we advance as Allenby mastered the
wastes of sands between Egypt and
Palestine.
What this means for millions Of