Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-05-05
PAUSE IN ''KAISERS BATTLE"
AN ADVANTAGE TO ALLIES
Measure of German Hopes May Be Possible
When Next Blow is Struck-Prob-
ably Will Be Heavy One.

which will leave him everything he has
conquered in the east and the south of
Europe and perhaps something in the
west.
The situation of the alice in the
north Is difficult They cannot COM
nit too many men to this remote
corner, to which the lines OF commune
cation are few and Inadequate: their
difficulties grow out of the closeness
OF their front to the sea and the fact
that the lines Of communication run
in the main parallel to their front,
not perpendicular to it and are thus
at the mercy Of any considerable adj
vance of the Germans. The German.
his communications are perpendicular
to the front, his distances are short,
he can strike where he chooses and
keep his hands on all the troops he
uses in either sector.
In taking KENNEL the Germans very
gravely embarrassed the whole Anglo
Belgian position from the Franco-Bel-
gian frontier to the sea. II they can
get the group Of hills. of which Mont
des Cats Is the highest and Scharpen-
west Of KENNEL. then the British will
have to make a considerable withdrawal,
Ypres will go and the union between
the British and Belgian armies become
there will be a wide dislocation Of the
allied line north of the Lys.
Will Be Tremendous Task,
1t seems to me. therefore, that we
may get a measure of German expecta-
ton by the direction of the next Ger
man blow. for there will be a next
blow. and heavy one.
II Hfndenburg goes on before Amiens.
II he makes another colossal effort in
Picardy, we must conclude that he has
stu the conviction that his first great
blow was only parted and that he can
roll up the British north of the Somme
and away from the French, and there
after. containing the French. destroy the
British armes. 1t Is a tremendous task !;
It IS ten times more tremendous now that
It has been revealed in its full character
by six weeks Of fighting, but it is the one
really good chance Of that decisive VIC
tory which he set out to achieve;
O.. On the other hand. Il he resumes his
Scharpenberg and then strikes to reach
and pass Hasebrouck. we mayo conclude
that he is seeking geographical rather
than military detectives; that he wants
to end the campaign of 1913 in posses
sion Of the channel ports and with a
pfstol-in the shape Of one of his super
guns-pointed at the head Of Britain.
Short Of disaster Of unparalleled pro-
portions. successful push to the coast
would not mean the capture or the de-
struction of British or Belgian armies:
1t would not mean a colossal Sedan, 1t
"ouIo mean a great success, a moral
and material achievement Of obvious
proportions. but 1t would leave the
British armies in being. able to resume
next year. when we arrive.
Germans Facing Dilemma.
In sum. it seems to me, the German
Is now facing dilemma Of real mag
nftude. II he strikes at Amiens and
fails. his defeat will be defeat which
he cannot disguise. and his chances Of
defeat are very great. II he strikes at
the north and fails. his costs will be
smaller. he will gain something, where
he must gain all or none at the south.
but hts supreme success. barring a dis
aster to his enemies. will be measured
on the map. not in armies captured. de-
etroyed or permanently crippled.
The German does not give UP easily
and he rarely seeks the lesser Of two
detectives. Therefore. 1 think, he will
strike again for Amiens and this seems
from the front. But we have nothing
conclusive in the way Of evidence. He
may strike in Picardy or in Flanders,
and until another great blow has been
delivered and blocked. it is essential
while retaining oru confidence to re-
strain our optimism.