The Tabor independent. [volume] (Tabor, S.D.) 1913-19??, 1918-01-24
By FRANK H. SlMONDS.
copyright, 1918, Tribune Association

The campaign of 1918 opens will
certain very clearly marked problems
IN all minds. by reason of the Russian
collapse and the Italian disaster, the
Germans have regaincd he offensive
the initiative. Theirs is now the OPP.
p~ortunity and the power to strike. TO
their enemies the riddle is now: Where
will the next German blow fall? In
the west, in SalOniki, i'm Asia? In adj
dition, there is the problem Of the ltal-
ian campaign, which is still proceeding
Will the Germans and their Austrian
allies, who are doing most of the work
he able TO press their advantage TO the
extent Of compelling the Italians, now
supported by the French and the Brit
iSh, to fan back to the line of the Adige
Surrendering Venice, Nicenza and IA
dua?
1t is perhaps worth while at the out
set TO examine for n the con-
ditiunS cut of which the present Ger
man advantage has grown. At the out
set Of the last campaign, that of 1917,
the German situation was, on the sur
face, lmost desperate. Russia, france,
Britain and Italy, with their minor al
lies, possessed a combined force vastly
in excess OF the troops of Germany and
Austrian. The central power were
outnumbered on every front, and, by
contrast with their condition in the
previous year, they no longer possessed
"a strategic reserve like that used
against Nerdun.
Beginning in June, July and August,
1916, when French n British troops
at the Somme, Italian troops along the
lSonZo and Russian troops In Gallcla
had developed a concentric and, in a
measure, co-ordinated offensive, the
Germans had been compelled to ac-
cept the defensive, and on all fronts
they had lost ground, prisoners and adj
vantage, which were not to be con-
cealed or counterbalanced by the sue
cessful offensive made against Ruma-
mia just as the campaign closed, an OF
fensive which was actually successful
because Rumania was sold out by the
Russian ruling faction, betrayed, ana
thus abandoned to destruction.
Germany had found herself hard
pressed all through the latter half or
1916, and her enemies might reasonably
have expected at this time last year
that with the renewal of n c~oncentrlc
attack in 1917 Germany would be
forced ITO shorten her lines east and
west, or court the disaster which came
to Lee when he endeavored to hold n
front too extended for his numers in
the last days of the confederacy.
The c~oncentric attack was resumed,
but after a preliminary round of allied
successes. French and British, on the
We iiohAtp "a va Nv 'AAS 1850
Russian in Galicia. Russia suddenly col
lapsed. and from that m onward
rapidly disappeared as a factor in the
situation. With the disappearance Of
Russia the allies lost their advantage
in numbers. Co~nceiveably. they were
still more numerous, but they a no
longer a decisive advantage. Moreover,
since the western front has only q linn
tied extent, Germany at nee acquired
II reserve to be used on this line when
there was need. although she did not
make and has not as yet made any large
draft upon II.
Russ Fiasco Spelled Failure.
The failure Of the allied offensive in
1917 was assured the Russia
dropped out. and Germany was hence
forth in a position to level a new blow.
She had the numbers on the line and
behind Ii to make the security Of the
western front absolute. despite minor
fluctuations. What should she do with
her new reserves acquired through
Russian detection? She elected to use
a portion Of them. a small fraction,
certainly less than 100. 600. in an Of
fcnsive against Italy, whose Isonzo
attack was becoming dangerous To
Austrian safety. The result was the
Italian disaster and the loss by Italy
Of $4,000 prisoners. half Of all her ar
tillery and more tran half Of all her
military accumulation in stores and
munitions.
The Italian disaster completed tho
ruin Of allied prospects which the Rus
sian collapse had begun. Italy now be-
a liability, and ii was necessary
to send men and guns at once to save
her. At the ONE when the Germans
were beginning to transfer their troops
from the eastern to the western front
tho n11ino y,rpra nhIiOaI ~ 1at,nb t,,a
armies from the western front to serve
in italy. And with his action they lost
all advantage of numbers on the west.
The recent British attack at CamLgai,
which might have resulted in one of
the decisive battles Of the way had
Haig been able to support Byng with
the corps sent under Plumer to Italy,
ended in a bitter disappointment. and
a dashing OF all British hopes.
As the new year opens the Germans
are able to put on the western front
substantially as many troops as the
British n the French. | do not think
that even Austrian aid will give the
erma any decisive advantage in the
matter OF numbers. They are able TO
concentrate in the west most Of the
guns hitherto used against the Rus
slams, all those captured from the
Italians, and IT, is not impossible that
some OF the Russian artillery will pres
tltiN ma It's way TO the German lines
III the west. In this situation any allied
offensive on a large scale becomes, IL
not impossible, altogether unlikely.
To attack now would mean for the
allies huge losses, with relatively small
possibility OF a supreme success. 1t
would risk exhaustion without comment
surate promise OF victory. on the other
hand, to wait, to accept the defensive,
Is to enable the United States to bring
up its forces, Of which no large portion
a be effective in 1918. but perhaps
/ 100000 will be ready to take part in
the campaign of 1919. Hence the allies,
incc the submarine warfare does not
threaten them with famine or defeat in
the next Is months, are bound to ac-
the defensive and let Germany
risk exhaustion by the attack.
Now, as he situation stands today,
Germany has the men and the material
Tor an attack. But she cannot wait.
No great new ally is getting ready be-
hind her guns, as we are preparing be-
the French and British armies.
Her prospects next year will certainly
be worse than they are now. But far
and away beyond the military are the
questions. Every month the
war continues the world is becoming
.insensibly but Enthusiastically organized
industrially, economically, financially
against the German: the hostility to
is spreading n the task Of