The Washington herald., 1918-02-03
Attack in West by Germans
Bluff to Brighten Allies
Regardless of Losses, Enemy Plans to Take
Ground, Prisoners and Guns in
Offensive.

iSAFNs
allies enjoyed. the Germans attacked
vainly at the end Of 1914
There are, however. two important
points which favor the enemy in the
initial stages Of his coming attack.
They are pointed out by Gen. Maurice.
The first point is that the Germans
worked for two years preparing de-
fenses as-inst an allied attack all
along the West front In the cam
paigns OF 1915 and 1917 they Were
evicted from these tremendous strong
holds on most Of the important stra-
tegic sectors Of the front.
Ten Months On Ground.
As . result, the British AVID French
lines, in the most critical regions.
have not and cannot have the defen-
siys strength Of the old Germany
systems. The allies have occupied and
worked on their present lines for not
more than nine months, In some places
not more than three or four. Con-
sequently the same amount OF work
has not been put upon them as upon
the old crust" of trenches that was
formed during two years Of compara-
tive inaction on most Of the battle
front.
The second point, perhaps more I'M
portant. Is the superior character Of
the German communications imme-
diateiy behind their front. This was
illustrated in the battle OF Cambria
The advances of the British and
French armies during past campaigns
hau L. Il.
scribably desolated by shell-fire, and
by systematic destruction in districts
where no fighting took place. In the
rear OF the allied lines. therefore,
stretch miles OF desert. Across these
terrible wastes OF desolation. roads
have been made and railways built.
But behind the Germans lines lie
villages and towns, intact. Great
trunk railways run behind their lines,
all the network of communication con-
strueted in peace time to serve this
rich industrical district is now serving
them in war. Water Is not a problem,
they have wells and streams, while
the allies must pipe water for miles,
because the water supply on old bat
tlefields Is fouled.
Foes Advantage Small
Beside those two points, there
are no important advantages ia
voring the enemy for the next Of
fensive. Against them may be set
the single fact that in this war ex-
perience has proved that an enor-
nous superiority Of men, guns and
shells is necessary to successfully
carry out on a large scale an often
sive operation against troops that
fight to the last. This superiority
the Germans have not got, and can
not get
The political character OF the
coming attack, becomes evident in
the light of the conservative esti-
mate of the strategic situation from
an eminent authority which follows,
an analysis showing clearly that
there is not the. slightest chance of
decisive German victory in the
West, provided the civilians hold
OUT:
1--WE are told in duly quoted and
circulated extracts from German
newspapers that the mailed fist is
now to be directed against France.
A very simple consideration OF the
strategical situation in the West
leaves it clear that II there is to
be this onset against the French,
the German right wing between the
Oise and the sea must in the mean
time be- e-toierably secure. 1t would
never do to launch such an on
slaught against the French and
leave this right wing and flank ex-
posed to a dangerous pressure from
the British. That would be invit-
ing disaster.
Render the Right Safe.
Therefore the preliminary is to
render the right safe. The right was
none too secure even when the Sieg-
fried line between Bullecourt and St
Quentin remained intact. 1t Is much
less secure now that that defense
work has been preached. Conversely,
II in order to secure the right the
mailed list be directed in the first
instance against the British, there is
the danger of a flanking pressure
from the French, and the more so
because they hold the dominating
ridges.
what Is the result? Either that
the whole allied front on the West
must be attacked at one and the same
time, or that some attempt must be
made to patch up the position, and
nullify the battles of 1917 by localized
operations.
Concerning the latter more modest.
but relatively much more practical BILE
program, rumor as might be expected
has nothing to say. So far the enc
my's proceedings have been definitely
defensive. Both at Cambria and north
OF Verdun there have been efforts at
patching up, and In view Of probable
developments the proceedings are,
from the German point of view, COM
mon sense.
Look back over the battles of 1917
on the West. There was the battle
of the Ancre, followed by the aban-
donment of the German defenses be-
tween Noyon and Arras; there was
the French attack upon the Aisne
ridge and the Champagne ridge;
there were the operations round Yer
dun, which threw the enemy back
to where he was in March 1916, there
was the taking OF the Messines ridge,
Followed by the capture of the Ger
man defenses east OF Ypres; lastly,
tnere was the preaching of the Sieg-
trled line southwest of Cambria.
Eject of Success.
What do these successes amount
toE AS 1t stood in the beginning
or 1917, and Notwithstanding the
initial breach made in the battle of
the somme, the German fortified
front on the West constituted a
system of defense the like of which
Tor elaboration and extent has new
er been known in war. The labor
OF millions of men, and millions of
tons OF material, had been expend-
ed upon 1t during the greater part
of two years. In spite of the