New-York tribune., 1918-02-13
aaa TO the present confusion by trying to
interpret the four principles. Mr.. Wilson
will do that.
One Front

The East front of the war mans has
vanished. There is now but one front in
Europe-the West 'front.' running from,
the North Sea to Switzerland and again
from Switzerland to the Adriatic. This
leaves out of account the military "side
show" at Salonica.
More than ever the theory of the "West-
ern" school of strategy is in the ascendant.
hussla's detection compels the Entente
powers to seek a military decision in the
West.
The question then arises: How tar will
peace with what is left of Russia and with
Rumania enable the Germans to reinforce
their armies on the West front? All the
Eastern forces cannot be withdrawn Po1
land, Lithuania and Esthonia have to be
garrisoned. The new Ukraine Republic
will have to be propped up for time by
German bayonets. Northern Russia will
have to be watched, for the Lenine-Trotzky
regime will probably not last much longer
and German control may have to be
strengthened by an occupation of Petro-
grad and threat at Moscow
1t must also be remembered that the
German and Austrian armies in the East
are composed largely. of third rate ma
terial The younger and more vigorous
elements are nearly all on the West front,
although used-up divisions have frequent
~ been sent East to recuperate and re-
cruit their strength. Since last August
the East front has been practically
stripped of artillery and aeroplanes. Moth
ing like total transfer of forces to the
West is therefore possible, or, from the
German point of view, even desirable.
Both Austria and Germany will draw West
their serviceable troops and leave the
others in the East for garrison and police
purposes. 1t is presumable that Bulgaria
and Turkey will now recall the few divi-
sions which they have contributed for use
north of the Danube.
What will be the extent of German and
Austrian reinforcement on the West
front? In his article in The Tribune last
Sunday Mr.. Hilaire Belloc put the Ger
man fighting strength in the West at 16O
divisions, or 100000 men. On the East
front there were so divisions, or 100000 |
men. 1t is Mr.. Belloc's judgment that
Germany can shift 40 divisions, or 100000 |
men. to the West and that Austria
can shift 10 divisions, or 125OOO men.
That would raise the German Western
forces to 100000 and the Austrian West
ern forces to about 1,25O,00O.
These transfers, if accomplished within
two months, might warrant the Germans
in attempting an offensive comparable in
magnitude with the campaign for Verdun.
But they would not establish Teutonic
superiority in man power in the West.
Major de Civrieux, writing in the Paris
"Matin" the other day, calculated that the
Germans could now concentrate 22O divi-
sions in the West-3, 1885, 900 men in all.
But according to M. Andre Tardieu's
statement, made in a speech to the
Alliance Francaise last week, France has
nearly 100000 men on the various
fronts, of whom certainly over 100000
are in France. The British are supposed
to have more than 1,50O,0 900 in France, and
the Italian, British and French forces in
Italy are certainly not inferior to the
Austro-German forces.
There is no need of being scary about
the Allied situation in the West