The Fargo forum and daily republican., 1918-01-19

the Alene hiVery NSl between Of
-~-~~~~~-~~~-~-~~~-~~~-~ ~~-~-~~~~~~~-~S~-~-~
test, the conditions of the campaign
Of 1918 are the conditions of the
campaign of 1914;. the German is
coming west again, as he came be-
fore, to win the war, to dispose of
France and to establish himself in
the place his super-patriots have
demanded for half century,
We are, then, so far as one can ac-
curately fOretell the future, on the
threshold Of one of the greatest con-
tests, perhaps the greatest, of human
history. If the German wins out
right he will win the war, he will
impose his terms upon vanQuished
France and Britain, and he will be
able to do this without regard to the
United States, because there Is not
the least hope that we shall have
the men or the material to play any
greatly useful role in this supreme
campaign. We shall be quite as
helpless as the British in the first
five months of the battle of Verdun
and unable to make any contribu-
ton to the allied cause comparable
with that made by Britain in those
memorable months.
There arises, then, the question,
when Will Germany strike? She
struck at Verdun in late February.
But she was compelled to strike in
an unfavorable time for campaign
ing, because both Britain and Russia
were preparing to strike in the late
spring and 1t was essential to dis
pose OF France before either Of her
other great foes was ready. But all
through the Verdun operations, from
February to April, Germany was
handicapped by weather Her often
siVe was slowed down at times by
the weather conditions on the Mouse
hills. This was not a decisive fac-
tor in her defeat, but it had a limit
ed importance.
And, with the exception of the
Verdun operation, we have had no
great winter campaign in the west.
The battle of YpFes ended in the
middle of November, all operations
until the last days of April, 1915,
were minor and local. The campaign
of 1915 ended in October with the
close OF the battles of Loos and
The campaign Of 1915
ended with the British victory at
-Hamel, an incident in the
greater battle of Somme in Novem-
Der. Petain delivered two successful
blows at VeFdun in October and
December but both were local and
with limited Objectives. Last year
the campaign disappeared under a
flood in Flanders and with the TAX
ing of PasschendaeIe early in
November, In 1918 the allies did not
begin at the Somme until July. ana
in 1917 they delayed their Aisne and
Arras strokes until April, although
the German retreat contributed
to pOstponing the at
tack,
Roughly speaking, We may say,
then, that the campaigns in the west
have. with the exception of Verdun,
opened not earlier than April and
ended in November. Is there any
reason why the German should force
the pace this year as he did at Yer !
dun? Then he feared a gathering
British attack, but has he any such
apprehension now? ] cannot see 1t. |
1t will be July at the earliest before
anything like an American army, and
a small army measured by European
standards, can even undertake a. re-
Btricted role and 1t will be April. |
1913, before our numbers will restore |
the advantage possessed by the allies |
q year ago, when Russia was still !
in the reckoning and Italy unbeat- |
en-.
Unless the internal political situa-
tlon Of Germany. induced by econo- |
mic conditions, is such that Germany |
cannot wait, believe that the west |
ern offensive will be postponed until |
March, or even April. In the mean |
time negotiations with Russia may |
have led to peace and the release of |
the mass Of German troops on the |
east, at all events to the release of
most OF the artillery and munitions
and, despite the popular notion, the |
transfer Of troops from east to west |
is a slow process.
To prepare a gigantic offensive |
such as Germany has now in mind |
is matter of many months, and
unless there is some reason for haste I
Germany will not hurry her prepara-
tions. Her course In the east in 1918,
when she suffered Przemysl to fall
into Russian hands rather than
hasten her Dunajec blow, is the best
proof Of this. And since this Is to be
the supreme bid for victory, Ger
many will want every ounce Of
strength on hand. Delay will not en-
able her enemies to increase their
numbers or materially to improve
least probably for a year, the great
/
relation to each other In numbers
and in material. All the conditions
that we know OF point to an attack
In April or May. Conditions con-
cerning which we know nothing may
make for an earlier blow, but these
Will on the whole be
advantageous to the allies rather
.han Germany, because they will
compel her to attack when the wealth
sr is unsuitable for campaigning and
n advance OF sufficient time to make
he best possible preparation.
The next question is: Where will
Germany attacR2 Will she attack
he French or the British2 What
part of the front she selects to as
iail will she choose as her ob1ectiVe2
First of all, there Is general agree
nent that Germany will attack the
french front, The reasons are
)rutally plain, France has suffered
more than any other Of the allied
nations and is therefore nearest exc
Her losses have begun to
weaken her reserves. and against a
errific concentrated German assault
.he might break, since she cannot be
.ided by Americans for six months
n a year and the British win have