New-York tribune., 1918-10-13

Napoleon was defeated at Leipsic, CEN
tury ago, there has been no such amaz-
ing transformation in military history
as we have seen in something less than
hundred days.
AS consequence of military events
and the resulting peace offensves, both
Austrian and German, there has de-
veloped everywhere, but particularly in
this country, wher6 there has been no
such series Of disappointments as have
tempered European optimism in the past
four years, a quickly mounting convic-
ton that the war is rapidly coming to
AN end and that the present will prove
the last campaign.
On 1he face Of the military situation
as it now exists this belief seems to me
unwarranted, and l purpose in this
article to lay stress upon the military
reasons why it seems inevitable, on the
basis of things as they now appear, that
there will be one more campaign. and a
campaign likely to make a supreme de-
mand alike upon the human, the material
and the moral resources Of the nations
at war.
It is we'll to recognize at the outset
that there exists remote but still
patent chance that the German armies
may in the two or three weeks left for
active campaigning be decisively defeat
cd. meet colossal Waterloo or Sedan.
Marshal foch is unquestionably striving
for decisive victory, a win theWar sue
cess. exactly like that sought by Luden
dorf in the opening months of the cam
paign. Under the terrific pressure which
is being cXerted German military
strength may collapse at any moment.
but | do not believe there is one chance
in fifty of such a collapse, given the prac
tical certainty that within three weeks
the weather conditions will place a final
veto on further general offensive move
ments. If we had two months, or three,
then the chances would be even, but we
have, perhaps, no more than a fortnight
In the same fashion political develop
ments between November and March
may make further fighting unnecessary.
Germany may surrender; she may offer
the same proposals which have been ac-
cepted from Bulgaria, and she may be
forced to offer such terms because
OF internal conditions, concerning which
we are at best only inperfectly informed
Again, it seems TO me that such a sur
render is almost out Of the reckoning
but not quite, and, of course, if Germany
surrenders there will be no more fighting
But we have to face the situation
which we have deliberately created. As
nation we have said, and we have
meant, that short Of a German surrender
we will not make peace with Germany.
We have clearly demonstrated that we
mean to continue the battle until the
capacity OF the German army for resist
ance IS exhausted, until the German
people are compelled to recognize that
the doctrine of force invoked by them at
the outset IS altogether false, that their
army cannot conquer the world, that it
is not even strong enough to defend Ger
many herself against the collective
strength of aroused civilization.
This means, if it means anything, that
short of the destruction of German mill
tary power by a victorious battle or
series of battles, peace can only be at
tanned ky the unconditional surrender of
the German people to the will of the ma
tlons Which are now at war with them, q
complete resignation of all power to re
slst, all unqualified consent to accept
when their armies have been demobilzed
and their conquered provinces evacuated
the decisions Of their enemies in the mat
ter of the payment for past crimes and
the guarantees for the future safety of
the world.
In sum, Germany must resign not
merely her grandiose dreams of Mittel-
europa, not merely her domination of
Russia, still continuing, but she must re
sign in the world, for the present, that
position which has been created by a
long series Of aggressive wars and has
enabled her from the Treaty of Frank.
fort to that of Brest Litovsk to domi
nate European counsels She must see
the economic edifice which she created in
Europe and out of it at the expense of
her neighbors and by the use of threats
and blackmail, propaganda and corrup-
ton, demolished. She must consent tc
return to many of the conditions existing
before the Franco Prussian War, politi
cally, and in sense economically, and
she must consent to have her future
during the period of the new settlement
determined by the nations whom she has
attacked. This is what surrender means
1t means that the German must submit
his will to that of civilization and take
his chance.
Now, does the military situation war
rant the expectation of such q surren
der at the close of the present cam
paign? Let us analyze the facts. We
have hu 0lr victories of I,lu danr;Ao1