New-York tribune., 1918-01-20
Envelop-
ing Movement in
Champagne and
Lorraine Is
Indicated
Copyright 1sls-The Tribune Assoei.tsoD

go back to the line of Lille -Douai- Cambria
on the south, and Lille -Roulers- -Ostend on
the north. This would compel the British
to begin preparations all over again for a
systematic attack and it might compe;
them to risk terrible losses in premature
assaults to save the French by threaten.
ing the German line on their own front.
On the other hand, the Germans might
follow the practice Of the Somme and of
Flanders; they will have more artillery
and machine guns, thanks to Italian defeat
and Russian failure, and they can then
hold on for limited time to one after an
other of a series of lines and yet hold
them lightly and give them up before the
final assault. In this way they might slow
ly draw back their troops in front of the
British, opposing an elastic defence. Ifthe
attack upon the French succeeded, the siir-
render of ground to the British would have
no real value. On the other hand, if they
failed they would be bound to shorten
their lines in any event against the coun-
ter attack of the. Allies in the spring of
1919, when the United States will be ready.
British Have High Ground
Now, it is we'll to remember that the
Germans may not attack at all in the
West, that they may attack the British,
and not the French, and that they may at
tack at single point instead of trying to
make new double penetration and. en-
velopment But an attack upon the Brit
ish would be an attack upon all adversary
far less exhausted than the German him.
self; it would give the French respite
until such time as the United States is
ready; finally it would be an attack against 4.
foe having all the advantage of position. f
for whereas between Switzerland and =
Rheims there has been little modification
of the front since trench warfare began,
between Rheims and the sea, over the
whole of the British front and the re-
|
vanced and taken the high ground held by
the Germans in the first years Of the con-
test.
From the mouth of the User to st.
| Quentin the British, with the Belgians,
occupy the good positions, save only about
La Bassee, where the Germans hold frag-
ment of their original front; but even here
they are in salient, and an attack out Of
salient is one Of the most difficult Of all
military operations. The British made
such an attack successfully out Of
the Ypres salient last year, but not an ad-
vance leading to any such immediate or
considerable profit as the Germans must
have.
"And Here We Are Again.
find on many sides great apprehension
expressed as to the probability of Ger
man success in this great offensive. Well,
of course, the enemy always has chance
of winning the battle; but when this enemy
had everything in his favor ne failed at
the Marne; when he had ninety chances
out of a hundred at Ypres and the User he
failed; when he had at least three to one
chance at Verdun he failed. In his next
attack he will not have more than an even
chance, if he has that, and all the odds of
"past performances" in the West are
against him. To accomplish anything he
has got to break "clean through" he has
got to get a decision of the character Of
Waterloo or of Sedan, and il he doesn't
get this decision he will have to abandon
the offensive for good and carry weight
for the rest of the war. -
Just now every German journal is beat.
ing drum or making some sort of aor.
rendous noise to shake the nerve Of. tbs
Allies in advance of the attack, but this
method is not always a proof Of supreme
confidence. When the German attacks he
is going to gain ground; this always hap
pens. There are going to be tense and
critical days ahead, but it seems to me the
people behind the line can afford to bor
row a little of the confidence revealed IN
the Tommys familiar lyric
I'VE beat them at the Marne.
We beat them on the Aisne.
We gave them He'll at Neuve Chapelis
And here we are again"