The herald., 1918-01-24

| armies.
From the total present combatant
strength must be subtracted 1,36S,OOO
men, the total losses Germany must
expect to suffer by November, 1918,
If she goes on with the war; to that
strength must be added 100000 for
the class of 1920. The German armies,
then, will have declined approximately
S6SOO0 men, on November /, 1918. from
their strength on the first of last May.
To Face 5,e71 900 Men.
This loss Of strength will fall upon
the cOmbatant forces alone. The l.
10000 old and unfit troops on duty
in the rear will remain as they were.
The 100000 fighting men possessed
by Germany today will have dwindled
to 4,232,000. Add to these the 1,739,-
900 nOn-combatant troops and the fig
ure of 5,971,000 men is attained, the
total land strength of the German EN-,
pire which 1t was said at the begin
ming OF this story would be in the
fields at the opening of the third, or
American, phase of the war.
Now this is frankly an estimate
which must allow for considerable
margin Of error. The figures of the
number of divisions in the fields are
| officially correct; the number of Ger
man net casualties, accepting their
| own lists, is known to within u small
fraction; but the chance of error
| in hn ooln lot IF
| troops.
have shown these figures, however,
to high military authority who said,
81 have gone over them carefully, and
l think you are safely within margin
Of error of Is per cent the only really
incalculable point at which you had
| to guess was whether the rate Of cas-
ualties for the next year and a half
will be the same as 1t has been In the
past"
| 1t may be assumed that while the
American armies during the year 1918
will doubtless be able to take their
fair share of the fighting, they will
not be In sufficient numbers to do most
of the work. as the British are doing
II now, until the end of the year at
| least.
American Phase In 1919.
But at the beginning Of the sixth
summer campaign Of the war, IN the
| spring of 1919, there is no doubt that
the American phase" will have com.
menced In earnest. Neither the French
nor British armies will then be in
position to carry out offensives on
large scale. They will not have the
men. America will have them. The
American troops and the allies will be
faced, In the spring of 1919, by 4,000,-
600 German fighting men, not count.
ing the old and unfit in the rear.
All this may sound very improb-
| able. It Is possible, and think prob
able, that the war will not go on to
the bitter end. There Is grave doubt
whether q campaign of 1918 will be
fought to finish, whether the "Amer.
lean phase" Of 1919 will ever arrive.
For the sake Of the world 1t is to be
devoutly hoped that 1t will not.
But the point is that Germany will
not surrender until she knows she is
beaten; and America must remember
that Germany will be able to keep f..
100000 men for the campaign of 1919.
Germany will not yield unless America
begins now and trains armies capable
Of smashing those 100000 men. Not
all the ships and money In the world
will prevent this war from dragging
on to an inglorious draw unless Amer
lean soldiers in sufficient numbers are
prepared to deal the finishing blow.
That is the moral of these calcula-
lions. and indeed 1t is the reason why
they are permitted publication.
Strength Of Teuton Allies.
A general view Of the present war
resources of the central powers de-
mands a consideration Of the forces
of Germany's allies as well as Of the
fatherland itself.
In addition to the 231 German divi.
sions, the Austrians have SO, the Bull
garians Is and the Turks, nominally,
about 81, some of which exist only
upOu the pdIClliucut SCTOliS VI TIE
Turkish war Office.
The west front Is held entirely by
155 German divisions. These are div
ided almost equally between the Brit
ish and French fronts. The lines OBJ
posite the British front are held by
the group Of armies under the COM
mand of Prince Rupprecht Of Bavaria,
while the German crown prince COM
mands the French sector.
Each of these two main groups has
reserve of about twenty divisions,
maintained In the rear for use In case
of emergency. Twenty-eight of these
divisions are not strictly fresh, but
have been reformed after being broken
In action at Arras and on the Aisne.
Twelve-six on the British and six on
the French front-are entirely ship
shape. and almost alone among Ger
many's good troops have not been put
into action this year. Out Of the 155
divisions In France, all but 43 have
been In battle on the Aisne. at Arras
or Messines, and % Of them have been
engaged twice. The average losses
before a division Is withdrawn from
an active sector are 1000 men. OF
the 43 divisions which have not been