The Birmingham age-herald., 1918-08-01
HOPE FOR COTTON SITUATION

know that Europe needs cotton. The total visible supply of cotton in the world on July 12 was 3,370,211 bales, compared with 3,026,904 bales in 1917, 3,651, ,272 bales in 1916, and 5,21S,7S4 bales in 1915. Total European stocks on the same day were 443,0 baies compared with 63S,000 in 1917, 1,241 ,0U0 in 1916, and 2,6SS,000 in 1915.
 "One million or two million bales of cotton in European stocks is no mol 6 to be regarded as a menacing surplus than 100000 to 2,00o,090 bales in American mills. In fact, any well con- ducted manufacturing enterprise is not comfortable without having in hand it's raw material sufficient for one to five months In addition to the low stocks in Europe, everybody perfectly under
 stands that stocks of dry goods in Eu- rope are distressinsly low. This is all to say that Europe can easily take and will gladly take 2,000,000 to 3,000,- GOO bales more of our cotton this year than she has taken during the closing year, if the shipping can be spared to transport it.
 If we can manufacture half mil lion bales more in United States next year and if we can export 1,000,000 to 1,500, 900 bales more next year, we will
 have provided for the greater part of the maximum prospective surplus of 100000 bales. If we can thus increase exports and if the estimate of Is, ,000,- 900 bales should fall short 1,o00,0 GOO
 bales by weather or weeviI damage. there would be no surplus at all. But suppose that there is a surplus of
 farmer who raises 10 bales of cotton will put two in the warehouse and sell the remainder by insta lments from month to month throughout the winter and spring, instead of forcing it all on
 the market at one time, the difficulty
 in even it's worst aspects of apprehen- sion will disappear.
 'I am sure that whatever the war industries board or any other funo- tion of government may be able to do, will be done to avert a calamity to the cotton growers. As I see the situation, no calamity impends if we do not lose our heads. At the same time, while
 the government may be depended upe n to exercise the utmost of its war power to prevent loss, it must be rememb bered that not even the government of the United States with all it's powers, can make two bales of cotton fit into the place where there is room for only one. If there is surplus of cotton this year it must be absorbed by re duced production next year just as the surplus of 1914 was absorbed by re- QuCtu pFOuuCl1On Tn the succeeding three years. II is only fair to say that. the government did not ask for so large a crop. It was produced be- cause our people in the south refused to heed the warning of agricultural leaders and economists. By such aid as may be rendered through govern- mental agencies, by judicious market ing, by withholding for later develop
 ment small part of the crop, and by l jtlCf in va IT. rf.L ing to the known facts and probabili- ties as they appear at planting time, the south can come out whole and with a profit. But the south cannot con- tinue to produce more cotton than the world can take at a given time and have it validated by any fiat of gov- ernment.
 q am more concerned about the gathering of the crop than I am about
 disposing of it, for I have reason to believe that our farmers are prepared and are willing to act dscreetly in
 mark eting, but our farmers cannot gather the crop. There are not enough men. women and children on the farm
 Much of the crop will be lost if peo-
 pie of the towns do not help. The pros-
 perity of every town in the cotton belt depends upon saving and marketing this important money crop, and it is imperative that the people of the towns organize for cotton picking. There IS no labor that may be imported, for la bor conditions are substantially the
 same in every state. There is no la Dor that may be created by the gov ernment or conscripted. We are at war and we are using large part of our man power for killing and de- stroying, and those who are not so engaged must help to save the crops.
 There are enough men and women do- ing perfectly useless things in the south to save the cotton crop. I do not doubt they will do it when they per- ceive the need"