The Winslow mail., 1918-11-22


Tne entire marketing SITUATION mas
so changed since the September joint
conference as to necessitate an entire
alteration In the plans of price stabi-
lization. The current peace talk has
alarmed the holders Of corn, and there
has been a price decline Of from 20
cents to 40 cents per bushel. The fact
that the accumulatiOns Of low priced
corn in the Argentine and South Afri-
ca would, upon the advent of peace
and liberated shipping, become avail
able to the European market has Gre
ated q great deal of apprehension on
has spread fear among swine growers
that a similar reduction In the prices
of hogs would naturally follow. More,
over, the lower range of corn prices
would If incorporated in 13-to-1 ra-
ito, obviously result in continuously
falling price for live hogs. In view
of these changed conditions many
swine producers anticipated lower
prices and as result rushed their
hogs to market in large numbers, and
this overshipment has added to and
aggravated the decline.
The information of the Department
of Agriculture indicates that the sup
ply of hogs has Increased about 8 per
cent, while the highest unofficial estl-
mate does not exceed Is per cent. in
creased production over last year. On
the other hand, the arrival of hogs
seven great markets has been q per
cent. more than last year, during the
corresponding period, demonstrating
the unusually heavy marketing of the
available supply. In the face Of the
excessive receipts some packers have
not maintained the price agreed last
month. On the other hand, many
Of the packers have paid over the
price offered to them in an endeavor
to maintain the agreed price. The re-
suit in any event has been failure
to maintain the October price basis
determined upon at the September con-
ference and undertaken by the pack
ers. Another factor contributing to
the break In prices during the month
has been the influenza epidemic; 1t
has sharply curtailed consumption Of
pork products and temporarily de-
yot~~ AoH - %h0 ny
about 25 per cent.
The exports Of 130,OO0,00O pounds
of pork products for October COM
pared with about 100000 pounds
in October year ago, and the
export orders placeable by the Food
Administration for November amount
to 170000,000 pounds as. contrast
ed with the lesser exports of
98,O0O,OOO for November, 1917. The
increased demands Of the allies are
continuing, and are In themselves
proof of the necessity for the large
production for which the Food Admin
istration asked. The increase in ex-
port demands appears to be amply
sufficient to take up the Increase In
hog production, but unfavorable mar
ket conditions existing in October af-
ford no fair index Of the aggregate
supply and demand.
It must be evident that the enor-
nous shortage In fats in the Central
Empires and neutral countries would
Immediately upon peace result in ad-
ditional demands for pork products
which, on top Of the heavy shipments
to the Allies, would tend materially
to Increase the American exports, in
asmuch as no considerable reservoir of
supplies exists outside of the United
States. 1t seems probable that the
present prospective supplies would be
Inadequate to meet this world demand
with the return to peace. So far as 1t
Is possible to interpret this fact, 1t ap-
pears that there should be even q
stronger demand for pork products
after the war, and therefore any alarm
of hog producers as to the effect OF
peace is unwarranted by the outlook.
In the light of these circumstances
1t Is the conclusion Of the conference
that attempts to hold the price Of hOgt
to the price of corn may work out to
the disadvantage of pork producers
1t is the conclusion that any interpre
tation Of the formula should DO q
broad gauged policy applied over q
long period 1t is the opinion Of the
conference that in substitution Of the
previous plans of stabilization the
Live Stock Subcommittee Of the Agri
cultural Advisory Board, together with
the specially invited swine representa-
tives, should accept the invitation OF
the Food Administration to join with
the Administration and the packers In
determining the prices at which con
trolled export orders are to be placed
This will be regularly done. The In
fluence of these orders will be directed
to the maintenance Of the common OBJ
iect-namely, the stabilization of ths
price of live hogs so as to secure az fal
oS IT is nossihle fair returns to tn