New-York tribune., 1918-11-03
WALL STREET OFFICE:
Mills Building, IS Broad st.

the last three or four months, and
especially of their leader, has seemed
steadily to reflect the approach OF
peace. And their action throughout
the war has seemed to reflect the
idea that their enormous earnings
would be not merely short-lived but
dearly paid for in post-bellum de-
preston. It would be hard other
wise to explain why, for example,
the stock Of the largest industrial in
the world, after sixteen years OF
highly successful management, could
sell no higher than about 1876 when it
was earning 80 to 40 per cent, any
way you choose to figure it, and was
paying II per cent. For the larger
Part of the war it has sold but little
above par. After the elimination Of
the bear market last December, when
it went below 80, it recovered to
only 113 last April and then de-
clned again to below 81. There was
then distinct change in the outlook,
an enormous accession of orders from
this government and the prospects
of prolonged struggle. But the
rise which followed only carried the
stock to l16, and since it's course
course has been generally downward
All this has been pretty much true
Of the other steel stocks and of many
ether war stocks.
Many of our bankers tell of the
enormous opportunities for trade
which await the coming of peace
but their faith is not reflected in the
stock market. To gain this trade
would require at least year or
more of highly intensified shipbuild-
ing, large capital investment there
IL, large consumption of stee! for
this and correlative purposes, very
considerable improvements and ex-
penditures upon the railways and a
large use of banking credits to
finance the extension Of our trade
abroad. All this forms most pleas
ing prospect But as peace seems to
come nearer the cold judgment Of the
stock market is, apparently, that all
this possible development will be
slow or else that it will not balance
the general decline in prices and in
business which SO many predict 1t
is true that there has been in Eng
land, and probably in Germany also,
a considerable expansion of steel ca
pacity, which, added to a very great
expansion in the United States,
might readily spell reproduction
il the demand for steel were not
heavy. But this is equally true in
other lines of industry. Copper pro-
duction is at high peak and so is
that Of other fundamentals.
1t would seem that great deal
viii depend upon the demand for
food supplies. If this is strong bust
less will naturally follow There is
considerable surplus of wheat in
Australia and elsewhere. But there
is no surplus of meat or corn and
fodder. 1t will be nearly year from
now before the fields of Europe can
bc brought back to maximum state
of cultivation, even If then. There are
experts who declare that the highly
fertilized soils of Europe have under
gone a very distinct deterioration,
and that their product cannot be
brought back to the normal for some
time. In the meantime there must
be strong demand for goods
from those neutral countries which
have been more or less block
aided and estopped from free pur-
chases by the war. The course of
business and prices after other wars,
and notably of our Civil War. does
not in any way forecast such gloomy
possibilities as have been coniured by
the more pessimistically inclined.
The course of bank credit imitation
goes merrily on, with no limit or sign
from the Federal Reserve Board or
the government that they purpose to
take any action to check it. Or shall
we say effective action, for it is evi-
cent that the various Warnings"
which have been offered have had
about The effect of zephyr in Nav.
The Monthly Bulletin of the Ma
tional City Bank calls attention to
the fact that
"On June u the twelve Federal
reserve banks held bills discounted
TO the amount OF s1.0S6. .023. 900 and
government securities to the amount
Of $3.50 .o6G 600 On October % these
items had risen to Sl,944, ,7S7 900
ard 34ao.Sil 200. Their consolidated
cash reserves against note and de-
post liabilities on June 81 was GIT
per cent and on October 25 it was
4a.6 per cent. The member banks
reporting to the Federal Reserve