Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-09-15

after behind the Mouse to the Yer
dun front, where 1t will follow the
present line. Such a retirement, sue
cessfully conducted. would free the
suit Of Foch and enable Ludendorff
to organize his counter offensive. or.
at worst, occupy the time between
now and the end of the fighting sea-
son and enable the German comman-
der to prepare for the next cam
paign.
Politics May Play Part.
Meantime, IL Ludendorfr attempts to
the adequate reserves for a counter
offensive he will do SO only because
of the political conditions which viii.
be created by a further retirement
These are unmistakable. Retreat to
the frontier will mean the surrender
of most of all the French territory
now held as basis for negotiation
and as a pawn for German colonies.
A German peace offensive launches
at the close of a campaign which has
seen the Germans retire from the
Marine to the Belgian line will gain
little Roadway, because in no allied
capital will there be any disposition
to grant favorable terms to an enemy
tablished upon the map and in the
battlefield. In a word, the allies will
seek not negotiated peace on the
basis Of existing things. but a peace
which will seem to all their publics
now assured.
We cannot measure the relative val
ue Of the moral and tho military ele-
ments. and therefore we cannot know
whether Ludendorff will undertake
the risk at all. trusting to possible
bad weather and banking on every
element OF luck, to hang on to the
Hindenburg line until the end OF the
campaign. We cannot be absolutely
for believing that there should be
no counter offensive at the Hinden-
burg line. II this should be possible.
then and only then would this limo be
tenable for the. Germans from the
military point Of view.
On the other hand, we may be sure.
and Foch has given US his word for It,
that every effort will be made to con-
tinue the allied offensive, and for this
Foch has the British second army Of
Plumer's about Ypres, which has not
been engaged: the French army east
of Rheims, which won the first and most
important stage of the second battle Of
the Marine, and very great number
Of American divisions. unquestionably
concentrating either in Champagne or
Lorraine for a new blow at the proper
moment. We must look to the German
TANKS, to Flanders and to Champagne
for the next great stroke Of Foch. when
Ludendorf il at last back in the linden
burg line, which will be within q few
days.
Sustained Offensive Means Victory.
Foch has now reached tho point Lu-
dendorn reached in July: to retain the
offensive now means to win the whole
campaign decisively. turn the Germans
out of northern France and expose them
to the deadly perils Of still another re-
treat, with all that this will mean to the
organization and spirit Of the army and
merely Of Germany, but Of all the allied
nations. A further German retreat will
have unmistakable effects, not alone in
Berlin, not merely in Paris and London.
but also in Vienna, Sonia and Constanti-
nopIe.
We have to guard against extreme op-
timism and keep clearly in mind the es-
sential facts of the situation. Our prob
lem this year was to prevent the Ger
mans from winning the continental
and over the French and British before
the American troops arrived in effective
numbers. We had accomplished this
when We defeated Ludendorn at the
Marine. Since then we have taken back
substantially all tho ground gained by
the Germans since March 81 and won
enormous local successes, measured by
prisoners and guns taken.
German Armies Not Broken.
So far, so good: but we have not
broken the armies OF the German, and
until we have accomplished this we shall
not have achieved our military VIC
tory, even though Ludendorn retires to
the frontier or behind the Mouse and
Scheldt The condition Of the army, not
the amount of the territory evacuated. is
what counts and will count. We shall
get a measure Of that condition within
few days. when we see whether he has
the necessary reserves to attempt
counter offensive at the Hindenburg line.
as Foch counter attacked at the Marine.
This is the next test and It IL at hand:
II Lundendorn lacks these reserves he
must retire or risk disaster; In either
case our profit will be unmistakable, but
we have already exceeded that mini
mum, which was a matter Of life or
death, victory or defeat, Tor our STRAIT
egg to achieve this year.
We shall know surely before Octo-
Der tust how badly We have beaten the
Germans in recent weeks; We may know
sooner, but the measure will be In his
capacity to react; il he can't react he
must retreat-he cannot defend the Hin
denburg line by standing still behind 1t.
because he cannot, having adopted such
to Verdun to meet an attack or q series
of attacks launched by Foch at points q
his own choice and at the time the
French commander dxes for himself.
Ludendorff demonstrated this On March
81. on April 8, on May n. Horne ~.
afiirmed it before Cambria and DouA
. week ago.