New-York tribune., 1918-11-13

opens lllC way TO L[ldL peace COfl-
gress of which the world has been
talking for the past four years. In that
period there has been a growing appreci-
alton of the fact that a general settle
ment, comparable in its magnitude to
that of Vienna in 1915 was inevitable
when at last the time came to hquidate
the present struggle
What has never been properly per-
ceived in this country is the magnitude
of the task and the obstacles which make
it almost inevitable that many, many
months will eapse before the signatures
are written under the defnitive docu-
ment, the reasons why a settlement even
within the limits Of next year are slight
in the extreme.
After the first abdication of Napoleon
the victorious Allies met in Vienna in
November to reconstruct Europe They
were still in session when Napoleon re-
turned from Eliza in the following
March, and they fingered until June 9
before they signed the final treaty Nor
would this settlement have come had it
not been because of the pressure of
events. 1t was Napoleon who in reality
made any agreement possible at Vienna,
by restoring unity of purpose to his enc
mics, who were beginning to be sepa-
rated by conflicting ambitions.
Thus. in the case of the last general
settlement in Europe much more than
a year divides the actual ending of the
hostilities from the signing of the final
settlement In the interim there had
been signed treaty between France and
her enemies, the Treaty of Paris, exc
cuted promptly after Napoleon's first
abdication. but second Treaty of Paris,
following the second abdication was not
Signed until November 30 Thus the
settlement hung fire over all the period
from April 7, 1914, to November 80,
1915.
In the present case we have to face
certain conditions which recall those of
1S14-15. First of all it is necessary to
find German government with which to
negotiate In 1914 this was supplied by
the return of Louis XVIII Thanks to
the aid of his brother sovereigns Louis
was able to take over French admins
tration with relatively small difficulty,
both in 1914 and again in 1915. The
fabric Of government was not destroyed,
there was merely a change in the sover-
eign, the executive.
But in the case of Germany we have
something approaching a genuine revo-
luton already, and there is good reason
to believe that the disorder may extend
in the following weeks In any event
no government can be more than provi-
sional until there has been a German
election, a submission Of the new order
to the people, With any other govern
ment the Allies must hesitate to do busi-
ness lest it be repudiated later by the
people. But an election can hardly come
before rehabilitation, before evacuation
of the regions to be occupied by the AL
lies, least of all can it come before the
German chaos has settled into some form
of order.
We may then conclude that any real
peace conference in the present year is
out of the question. We may suspect
that any gathering early next year is
unlikely, given the existing situation of
chaos, not merely in Germany, but in
Austria and in Turkey. Peace can only
be made with governments, and for the
moment there is no government in Aus
tria or Germany and no handy substi-
tute such as Louis XVIII constituted in
1914.
Nor is this the sole difficulty. We are