Gilpin observer., 1918-01-17

the utter ruin OF the whole entente and
most certainly of the. United States as
well. 1t is possible to conceive any
other member Of the anti-German coali-
ton temporarily beaten to the ground
without Germany succeeding in con-
Qusring the world; but If it is now
| given to the United States to decide
the war by throwing all her resources
into the scale, 1t no less remains true
that the British navy is the guardian
of the liberties of us all. America
would be just as helpless If the British
navy were starved into submission as
If it were sent to the bottom of the sea.
The strategy of the allied armies
during the past year has been to wear
down the German troops by ceaseless
and relentless offensives pushed as
violently as possible. Were it possible
to break through the German lines and
destroy the enemy's armies, rs some
optimists, have believed possible, the
war could be won promptly, and the
attrition warfare of the submarine de-
feated. But it is not possible; and pro-
fessional optimists do their cause a
very poor service when they circulate
rosy accounts which must tend to en-
courage belief in the United States that
the Germans cannot hold out beyond
this year and that the presence of
great American forces in Europe will
not be necessary.
The supreme command has permitted
Colonel Repington, the military expert
of the London Times, to announce that
there are at present six million German
soldiers, not counting Austrians, Bull
gars or Turks. OF these 100000 are
on the fighting fronts, 100000 on the
lines of communication in conquered
territory. and 1.0OO,OOO in the depots
of the interior of Germany. 1t is true
that the "combing out" process in Ger
man industry can apparently go no fur
ther, but there are 100000 boys who
reach military age every year. Not on
ly are the German armies six millions
strong, but they are stronger today
than ever before.
Germans Hope to Win On Sea.
German strategy is to hold out on
land and to win the war at sea. All
hopes of winning a decisive victory on
the west front must have been given
up when the Somme onslaught COM
PEELED the cessation of the great eff
fort to rupture the French lines at
Verdun. The great truth that the
war must be won upon the west front
Is now clear even to the easterners
who looked early in 1916 to the Medi
terranean for a decision.
Speaking with approximate knowl-
edge of the reserves available on the
allied side in the west, the writer
would earnestly ask Americans to re-
member, when they read of German
divisions decimated and of troops
thrown into the Arras or Champagne
furnaces from the German strategic
reserve, that the same process is 60
ing on not on one side only but on
both. If this is kept in mind, the mill
tary effort of the United States upon
which so much depends will not be
hindered or delayed by irrational Op-
timism.
During the coming months recru-
descence of German peace activity is
probable, and this activity will be di-
rected towards capturing the imagin-
ations of Russian and American ideal
lists. The absence of such an agitation
would be sinister sign. for it would
mean that the German high command
seriously believed in the possibility of
winning the war outright by the sub
marine, and debating terms that would
make all nations vassals of Germany.
Hopes to Trick Opponents.
But 1t is more likely that Germany
| InnS ha1fnvn fhtc iIaa1 ott
and hopes to trick her opponents into
n peace which would be In effect a
partial German victory but would wear
the appearance of n draw. There are
already signs of these maneuvers,
which of course could be repudiated
If the submarines were more success
full than is at present thought likely.
German diplomats believe that Ameri-
cans know nothing and care nothing
about affairs in the east, and may be
expected to offer liberal terms In the
west which would satisfy the worlds
conscience about Belgium and appeal
to the British, French and American
democracies, while realizing German
aims in the east under various diplo-
matte formulas about liberty, auton-
omy, and spheres of influence. If this
peace can be arranged, the German
Junkers will remain firmly in the sad
die. The German power will embrace
Austria-IIungary, Bulgaria, Turkey,
Roumanla, Serbia, and Poland, even
though the independence of all these
countries be solemnly guaranteed. Ger
man autocracy will overshadow the
world, and the ideals for which the
democratic powers are fighting become
unrealzable. But America has only
to stick to the war until the Ger
man autocracy is thrown down, by
internal revolution or by force from
| outside and her nnver md influnnce