davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

weather ss affecting the growing crop
are stated briefly. but to the extent of
including every factor, such as insect
damage or It's likelihood, and many
others which are often peculiar to the
season In question.
Attention to
Detail Important
In 1914. In Missouri and Kansas. spe-
cial mention was made In reports of
the corn crop that there were no hot
winds, and that consequently a larger
yield might be expected in both states
than in 1913, when hot winds we're most
prevalent In both states, especially In
Kansas Yet other conditions Of hea,
and drouth were much the same in
1914 in Missouri az In 1918. Further
more, report was made In Missouri IN
1914 that about Is per cent OF The
farmers wert using dry farming meth.
DDS extensively, much more SO, In fact
than ever before. The result % tb;.
careful study of the situation was q
prediction Of larger corn crop In
Missouri In 1914 than in 1918, and the
actual results were In accordance with
shis prediction.
Again, in general, all over the country
In 1877 the great production OF corr
was foretold some time In advance
based very largely on the reports Of
observers that the corn had generally
two ears to the stalk and often three
and that the weather was most favor.
able at the critical time Of tassellins
Stress was laid In these reports upor
the conditions Of the fields, whether
clean or weedy, and the general ap
pearance of the growing plant and the
amount Of moisture In the subsoil. Tn.
reckoning made on these reports ane
estimates is by one who has a persona
knowledge and observation OF ever,
section from which the information
GENES. The total reckoning Is by com
parison with the previous years har
vest. based on proportionate relation
of conditions not only of increase o.
decrease In acreage. but likewise tn,
likelihoods Of weather. For there Is
serious attempt to forecast the posi-
bilities Of weather during the re
mainder Of the growing season. This
too, with q full realization Of the diff
| culties Of the task.
First II all any intelligent study O
the weather for = long period revsall
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

| and cost Of marketing commodities just
as much as wages. hence the consumer
pays them when he pays his butchers
and grocer's bill or his rent.
Taxes at the source when applied
against public service or public utility
corporations (e. g., gas, electric, tele-
phone, telegraph, or transportation
which are under contract or law re-
quired to furnish service at q fixed
cost, cannot be thrown upon the con-
sumer, except land that is an impor-
tant consideration in the form Of
diminished quantity or quality Of
service, and must therefore come in
part if not wholly out Of the profits
or dividends of the owners. This sort
OF taxation is unequal and undesirable
chiefly because 1t results ultimately,
II not at once, in the impairment Of
the service which the public desires.
The Limitations
On Taxation
1t may be asked with a good deal
OF force, To what limit may a nation
go in fixing its taxes? That Is indeed
difficult question to answer, and one
in which experience and education are
the only safe guides. 1t was not many
years ago that national tax Of two
billion dollars seemed very high in the
United States, whereas we can now
look at national taxes which will yield
possibly twice this figure with con-
siderable equaninity. 1t may be said
about taxation, as about many other
things, that zone does not know what
one can do until he tries" 1t is prob
able that If the public were thoroughly
informed as to the advantages Of the
pay as you go" policy, and appreciated
the comparative results from raising
funds by taxation and raising them by
issuance Of bonds, it would submit
with cheerfulness to a more severe
form OF taxation than any yet sug-
gested, but much education is needed
to bring our people to the proper
frame Of mind
Securing Funds
By Borrowing
The individual, whether in private
life or in the conduct of his business
, must not feel that taxes are so severe
that he can no longer endure them OF
that his business Is to be ruined. He
must be convinced that the winning Ct
the war and the future safety of the
nation depend on sound war finance,
and that that involves heavy taxes, be-
cause 1--WE must pay as we CO." 1t is
an undeniable feet that all forms Of
texes are unpopular that almost every
individual who pays taxes has a deep
rooted conviction that some other indi.
vidual has managed to evade his share
or is paying less than he should A,
tie same time The payment of taxes
whether national, state or municipal,
tends to bring home to the citizens the
Importance Of an efficient and good
government and contributes to good
government by imposing upon the citi-
zenry the necessity Of watching pub
lie expenditures.
The only other alternative for rais-
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

IN one sense, are in their final incl
dence indirect upon the individual.
The extent to which taxes may be
applied, OF course, varies greatly with
the conditions under which the taxes
are levied, but it is generally recog-
nized that in war a loyal people will
sustain its government and will cheer
fully bear far more heavy burden Of
taxation than in ordinary times.
There is naturally wide diversity Of
opinion as to how taxes should be
levied, as to the inequality Of taxation.
etc; and while it is at best sub
ject upon which it Is exceedingly Diff
ficult to secure complete agreement,
it is safe to say that the people will.
in such times as these, accept the de-
cision Of the President and the Con-
gress.
While it is out Of the question to
attempt to cover the whole field Of
taxation in few brief paragraphs, it
Is at least proper to set down some
principles which are to be generally
agreed upon by the experts.
First-It Is very desirable that the
taxes shall be so applied that they
will cause people to economic, for,
as already stated, the only source Of
funds is savings and the only one
way to neutralize the wastefulness Of
war Is by the most rigid economy.
Second-Direct taxes. such as the
income tax in the United States or
the real estate tax, used in most Of
our cities, have distinct merit be-
cause they cannot be evaded, and tho
individual knows exactly what he is
paying.
Third - Indirect taxation, which
may take any one Of several forms,
is highly desirable in some respects,
though Objectionable In others. In
80 far as 1t operates rs tax on con-
sumption, such, for example, as a tax
on tobacco and spirits, or on articles
Of food and luxury, 1t is very valuable
both because it is easily collectible
and because BY adding to the cost Of
the article it tends to reduce its use,
and therefore results in economies.
Indirect taxes are popular with the
legislators, because the tax is included
in The price Of the article and Is paid
by the public without grumblng, and
in 80 far as this form Of taxation does
not fall upon the bare necessities Of
life it is desirablei
Other forms Of taxation. such as cor
poration taxes, presumably direct in
their effect, are. in many cases, indirect.
The reason Is that the corporation
must pass on the tax either to its
stockholders. its creditors or the con-
Stunning public, and the result Is that
even 80 justiAable tax as an excess
profits tax Is largely paid by the ul-
innate consumer without his knowing
that he Is making the tax contribution.
The fact to be borne In mind Is that
taxes enter into the cost Of production
L. Taxes on the consumption Of necessities
Of life are objectionable but even fuel, meat,
bread. sugar. ETC., should be taxed If used
in more than necessary quantities. Just how
such taxes can be applied and not be evaded
Is matter worthy of some study
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16
Norwegian Government Acts
To Subsidize Fishermen

The Norwegian government has
voted $5,00O,0O0 crowns Cat normal ex-
change the crown Is worth 26.9 cents
United States gold) for the fisheries,
Of which 100000 crowns is to be used
for buying new implements to replace
those lost by the fishermen either by
storm or through the misfortune OF
war. This will put the fishermen in A
position to carry on their work, which
Is quite important a5',,n in Inn Mcrn with
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16
Thrift the Antidote
To Bourgeois Display

But these unpleasant concomitants
Of very rapid commercial development
are passing. Brave men have come out
openly In favor Of thrift. Thrift may
actually become fashionable and take
the place Of bourgeois display. Money
success Is no longer worshipped. Men
successful in monetary acquisition are
accepted as equals provided they have
other attainments
Even the international hat check
king. after making million guildcrs,
has gone into retirement.
Years ago this great industrial king
landed In the midst Of democracy If
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

Nara, LaMn,

Nara, Japan.
nIG tips have been tossed about In
ID Japan by the narikins-those
who have made fortunes by war
profiteering. Since the market slump
last fall. which drove one of tho great
stock market operators to suicide and
sobered the others, people have been
disposed to keep their money for the
rainy days. The Japanese are getting
back to their thrifty habits. They are
quite ready for any eventuality.
All over the world successful profit
GERS. callous to public opinion, have
been inclined to display evidence Of
their sudden arrival among the upper
classes. In one Occidental country a
story was related gleefully that mari
kin. who had made millions quickly by
putting over huge, fantastic CONSOLE
dation and unloading his common stock
bonus quickly. was systcmati. ally
worked by the bellboys Of the ornate
hotel where he lived. Many kilograms
addressed to the great commercial
king were delivered at the hotel. They
were parcelled out by the head bell
boy. Each telegram was delivered to
the big man by a different boy. The
urbane narikin gave the equivalent Of
twenty-five cents American money to
each messenger. Each got his share;
the head boy took the balance. and
most of this went higher up. The ag-
gregate tips, In those easy days when
thrift was despised, were equal per-
haps to the other profits Of the hotel,
and may have helped to pay the big
dividends.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

the fact that there are irregular but
none the less certain cycles Of about
Atty years in which practically all
phases of weather recur with relentless
certainty. Furthermore. after the fash
ion Of everything in nature, there Is a
tendency of similar kinds of weather
to flock together. In Kansas, for In
stance, there are series Of wet years
and Of dry years. This fact is as old
as history. as was exemplifed In Jo-
seph's Interpretation Of the seven lean
and the seven fat kline. Again, in gem
eral. q dry spring, especially II 1t ex-
tends into May. Is almost invariably the
precursor Of poor harvests Of grain
and food products, while wet weather
In spring. especially in April, May and
June, portends abundant yields Of these
same products. In the State Of Missouri
If the June rains cease much before the
first OF July, the outlook for the corn
crop Is serious, while II they continue
into July all IL we'll A drouth COM
mencing early In July and continuing
toward the latter part means n serious
reduction in the yield of corn. In
Kansas two or ut most three dry years
are almost sure to be followed by one
or more wet seasons, and the reverse
is equally true. In some other states,
more to the south, the rains from De-
cember to February often determine
the coming harvest, for If there be not
enough water in the subsoil by Febru-
airy to terminate seeds rapidly, the
coming crop has rocky road ahead
Of 1t.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

principals for the money has been
spent for the conduct of the war and
not to crente new or added earning
capacity.
Because the truth Of this statement
may not be readily conceded, let nc
see If can make II more plain Let
US suppose that we were q nation Of
a million people, each with an annual
income of ten thousand dollars.
If the government should call upon
us to subscribe to the Liberty Loan
bonds and we each subscribed the same
amount, say one thousand dollars, the
government would receive round
billion Of dollars, and we or our heirs
would receive forty million annually
as interest upon our investment. But
who would pay back the principal at
maturity? Why we, the same people
from whom the government borrowed
the money. In other words, we are the
government Lincoln expressed it in
undying words: "A government OF the
people, by the people, for the people"
We are lending the money to ourselves
and paying ourselves the interest and
eventually repaying the principal to
ourselves at maturity. But, you ask,
what IL some If US do not subscribe
to the bondsf Some might do twice
their share and some might do moth
| ing" In that event, what would hap
pen would be that the man who did
not subscribe would still have to con-
tribute in payment Of taxes for the
repayment Of the money. Thus. he
would be required to pay taxes to meet
the interest on his assumed share of
one thousand dollars worth of bonds,
even if he had not subscribed to the
bonds
In the case assumed. each man has
contributed 10 per cent Of his income,
'r one thousand dollars, and has to
pay In taxes each year enough to pay
himself the $40 Of interest due him,
! plus enough more to pay the bonds at
maturity. If the bonds run for twenty
five years that would be, say, $40 a
gear more as a sinking fund, or, say
$50 total. If he does not subscribe and
another man takes his share, he re-
ceives no income from government
bonds owned by him, but finds himself
taxed Tor his share of the interest and
sinking fund payments.
Loans Lead
To Imitation
. The essential difference between
raising money from the public by tax.
alton and raising it by the issuance Of
bonds is the resulting imitation. In
fiatlon Is word that is much used, bu,
not always understood. In it's simple,
and most readily comprehended mean
ing 1t is that form of imitation of the
currency which was common in on,
civil war, when the government, in
stead of printing its promises to pay In
the form of investment bonds. printed
them in the form of currency notes
Under that method Of imitation a gov
crnment wishing to buy million dol
lars worth of produce, or to paw ,
million dollars in wages, would simpl,
print a million dollars of its owl
promises to pay" and these promise.
to pay in the form of currency would
thereafter pass from hand to hand as
money.
The extent to which this sort Of In
hation may go without wreckine the
financial structure of nation depends
entirely upon the wealth of the nation
and the confidence which the public o,
other nations have in its ability tc
keep its promises. The usual symp.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16
Japan's Gold Reserve Grows

The steady increase In Japan's gold
specie continues. The latest returns
issued by the Finance Department, ac-
cordine to Eastern Commerce" for
May, shows that the gold held by the
government and the Bank of Japan on
April 20 amounted to l.O76. 900 yen,
Of which 100000 yen was held at
home and 6ls,oo0.oOo yen abroad.
These figures, compared with those for
March, show an increase OF 100000
yen in the portion held At home and
ii 600, 900 yen in that held abroad. THE
normal exchange value Of the yen Is
O.498.)
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16
Union Needed in
Planning Finances

In other words, the nation requires,
using phrase which Is already hack
neyed, goods and eervices." 1t must
obtain the services of the men and
women, those who fight and those who
serve In other capacities. But in or
der to obtain this service or these ma
terials the government must accumu-
late money, because that is the com
mon denominator to which goods and
services may be reduced or the terms
In which their value may be expressed.
Hence. it Is for this reason that the
hrst act Of a nation at war is to pass
laws authorizing its fiscal or treasury
officials to raise money by taxation
or by borrowing, or both. 1t is clear
that the greatest financial errors ever
made In attacking such problems have
usually been due to g failure on the
part OF nations leaders to appreciate
the seriousness or magnitude of the
matter. Thus at the beginning of our
Civil War President Lincoln called for
10000 volunteer soldiers for three
months service. and the financial plans
then made were based upon the theory
that the number of soldiers that would
be required would not be very large
and that the duration of the war would
be short.
Even with The limited perspective
We have Of the present contest in
Europe. which began less than four
years ago, it is apparent to us already
that all of the European nations great
~ underestimated the magnitude OF
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16
BY Archer Wall Douglas

TINE custom of crop forecasting is
largely u modern matter. because
of an economic attempt on the part
OF the business world to anticipate the
future and order its goings In accord
ance. While it is largely made use Of
BY the spectators In the grain pit and
the stock market for purely specula-
tive purposes. It has, on the other
hand. a real value to the large body
OF commercial and traffic organizations
as guide for their future activities.
Obviously. the value Of such fore
casting depends entirely upon its ap-
proximate accuracy to Anal harvest
results. The proportion Of accuracy
depends largely upon the volume of
yield Of the agricultural product in
question An error Of 10 per cent in
forecasting the yield of rye is much
less serious than the same mistake
applied to cotton. The principal
method Is an attempt to solve q mathe-
NAUTICAL equation. and most endeavors
OF Improvement in accuracy are along
this line. The initial and inherent
difticulty OF this method is and al
ways will be that by It's very nature
u constantly fails to include all the
factors in the equation. especially
those Of new and passing character.
furthermore. 1t Is usually sought to
oe worked out. by means Of statistics,
oy those who have neither personal
knowledge nor observation Of the
causes which produce the statistics In
Question. Worst Of ali. 1t usually
BASES the prospective yield on the con.
saiiing at the time Of the forecast.
Futility of
The Equation
The utter futility of such 4 fore
east can be easily seen by q compari-
ION OF the forecast early In the
kfewing season with the actual results
~ the harvest. II not infrequently
asppens that this difference Of results
y the wheat yield Is az great as Is
Per cent? difference SO great as to
render the early forecast practically
= no value. The only thing one can
- sure Of Is that the crop conditions
pssseaiing at the time Of the forecast
fs SURF to change, and consequently
~ hypothesis Of yield based on a
I sssas ssnditien. y Interesting only u
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

MEMBER euerGt ReSeTUe Board
TINE subject Of financing the war
Is not simple one 20 deal with:
1t does not lend itself readily to
popular oratory, so because it is dry
and because It is complex it Is largely
left to the specialists. On the other
hand, the effects of bad financing are
so serious that 1t is highly desirable
that the subject be better understood;
and for that reason it will be my en-
deavor to state RS briefly as can, and
In as simple phraseology as can com
mand, the principles involved and the
probable results of various measures
already adopted or in contemplation.
To begin with. as will be readily
conceded. war is essentially wasteful.
and therefore, TO counterfeit the evil
effects of the war, there must be great
economy.
When a nation goes to war the gov
eminent, as the representative of all
the citizens, must take men out of pro-
ductive employments and use them as
soldiers. It must take other men and
women from their various occupations
or svocations and employ them in max
ing munitions and equipment, or build
ing ships. docks and ali sundry things
which are required; and finally the
transportation system of the country
must be taxed to the utmost to collect,
distribute and forward the men, the
munitions and the equipment.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1918-06-16

20 "SJ w pay LUZ IiIe war Is ny
borrowing it from the citizens through
the Issuance Of government bonds.
Borrowing money from the public Is
the usual way of financing war One
obvious reason for 1t is that the mo-
chinery for borrowing is simpler and
can be put into operation more speedily
and easily than the machinery for tax
alton. Az soon as n nation determines
upon this course there is comparative
~ little room for differences of opinion,
and it is only among the experts and
the economists that Tho evil effects
OF borrowing are appreciated. How
ever. it should be obvious to any one
that the source Of supply, whether the
funds be borrowed or whether thew be
taken by taxation, is the same--to wit,
the savings of individuals. In one case
these savings are contributed by the
individual to the government once and
for all; in the other case they are
loaned to the government with the
promise OF repayment. 1t is the common
understanding that in ono case we make
the present generation pay for the
war, whereas in the other case we
think we are putting the burden upon
the future generation; but this state
ment. in the opinion Of many econo-
mists. contains fallacy which should
be carefully studied and analysed. The
economists who believe this staten en-,
to be fallacious maintain that there is
no way in which the cost OF a war can
be deferred; that the reason the war
must be paid for at the time and not
by postcrity can perhaps be best ex-
planned by pointing out the essential
fact that what the government requires
is, as we have already said. goods and
services; that the services of the SOL
diers and the services Of the men and
women behind the lines. to make tie
munitions. clothing, etc, and to supply
transportation by land and sea, must
be paid for when supplied.
The conception that government
could make posterity pay for present
day expenditures seems to have be-
come fixed in the public mind from
the analogy Of everyday corporate
finance. Thus when q railway. or q
mining or manufacturing corporation
or a merchandise undertaking raises
capital 1t borrows from the public to.
day with the expectation of paying
the money back from the accruine
profits. In such a case, If the enter
prise Is successfully administered. the
public has contributed to it, and 50
has borne the burden as we'll as en-
5oyed whatever profits the undertak.
ing may have yielded. In that case
the fund, oricinally contributed are
not spent for goods and services
which are thereupon consumed and
wasted, but are spent in creating and
developing an organization which
will produce goods or services for sale
to the public, and which will from the
profits from future sales repay the in.
vestors. On the other hand, when q
nation borrows money from its people
the money is at once spent for mum
lions Of war, for food, clothing. blan.
kets and multitude Of other things
which add nothing to the wealth Of the
nation, and which are soon consumed