Arizona republican., 1918-02-02
GEDDES SAYS THAT
 SUBMARINE IS HELD
 BY BETTER METHODS
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 (Continued from Page One) higher rate than ever before in our record before the war, and before 1918 Is over we shall be building shipping of all kinds at a rate more than double | that record year. But a great deal depends on American effort, and 1 should greatly regret if anything l might say regarding the failure of the German submarine warfare should be construed as minimizing the need for ships and yet more ships"
 Turning to the progress of the cam paign against the German submarine, Sir Eric again referred to the satis- factory trend of the curves to which he has referred in several of his speeches.
 All Curves Bend Right
 All the curves continue to bend in the right direction" he said. The de- struction of allied shipping decreases rapidly, the construction of merchant shipping increases steadily and the sinking of German submarines steadily rises.
 There is still another curve which l keep. l never told the public about it, but it gives me personally much sat isfaction. It is the curve representing what l call the factor of exaggera- tion' in the German official statements of U-boat results. Let me explain that curve briefly.
 Every month since the unrestricted war began, the Germans have issued an official statement of the total amount Of tonnage alleged to have been sunk during that month. Every month that statement comes to my desk and is compared with the actual total as shown in our records. It would only be natural to expect some differences, for submarine commanders would nat urally include in their reports a few ships which they torpedoed but which we afterwards saved.
 Germans at Old Tricks
 But we found there was a greater difference than could be explained in any such way. We found from the very first month that there was a cer- tain margin of exaggeration'-that is the German admiralty always added few thousand tons for good measure.
 This margin of eXaggeration was fairly small in the early months of the unrestricted warfare, when things were going along with a certain degree of success for the U-boats. It showed no particular increase through April, May and June, when the sinkings were highest. But with the lessening of the ! German successes of July, August and l September the margin of exaggeration began to increase. The German ad- miralty found itself obliged to falsify it's returns more and more flagrantly in it's effort to persuade the German people that the U-boat was continu- ing success
 'So I keep a record of continued in- crease in percentage which marks the Germans margin of exaggeration, ant this curve I believe is a fairly accu. rate reflection of the German officia mind and an official confession tha the U-boat campaign is regarded as { failure by its own leaders,
 German Charge False
 Sir Eric referred to the German clain that the decreased sinkings were du' to the decrease in the number of ship sailing.
 That is false" he said. Sailing and arrivals are just as numerous to day as they were year ago. Ther are just as many large vessels as sub marines in their zone of operations, bu our improved defensive measures leav them fewer opportunities to make bull eyes"
 The correspondent referred to Secre tary of War Bakers statement of fev days ago concerning the German plal for concentration against Americal transports.
 There is no doubt" said Sir Eric that the U-boats will bend every eff fort to attack American transports. an, if you are to bring across the Atlanti the number of troops that you plal there will be losses, and probably heav anes, for life saving in mid Atlantic i not easy.
 T do not doubt that MT. Baker ha good grounds for his statement, bu we have no evidence to support tn view that the Germans at present ar withdrawing their U-boats in prepara tlon for concentrated attack agains the American lines of communication All out evidence tends to show tha there are just as many submarines ou now as ever, and that they are just a ambitious and active.
 Due to Better Defense Plan The steady decrease of merchar sinkings q do not refer to the abnoI mally good weeks of this month), not due, I am convinced, to any witf drawal of submarines from the shir ping lanes, but to the steady improve ment in the allied methods of dealir with them. They get fewer chance
 and they meet with disaster more frt quently."
 The subject of disaster to Germa
 submarines led Sir Eric to the defen!
 of the British policy of entire secreC
 since the sinking of U-boats.
 Our policy of secrecy" he said, "ha
 l believe, much to do with the stead
 deterioration in the morale of the Ge
 man submarine crews. The exceptiC
 made in the case of the U-boat who
 crew was captured few weeks al
 by an American destroyer is not ol
 which we purpose to follow.
 Secrecy Worries "U" Boat Mon We know from prisoners how mut ' of this policy of secrecy wears on u
 German U-boat sailors. Every mon
 there are German submarine crey
 which fail to return to their base al | of which nothing is ever heard. | Day after day they are posted
 missing. Their fellows on other boa
 discuss and speculate upon their DO
 sible fate and finally are themselv
 called upon to leave on an errand whi
 they cannot help feeling is very like
 to end in the same vague. and unsati
 factory way.
 The German sailors morale ia
 under the acid test of this oft-repeat
 experience of suspense. Once or twi
 this failing in morale has come to t
 surface in strikes or mutinies. B