New-York tribune., 1918-06-08
America Arviues :!
By Frank H. Simonds

the Old Guard when the enemy was
shaken to deliver the decisive thrust.
But this blow must fall before the
tide in numbers turns. The situation is
exactly that of the race between the
U-boat and the shipbuilding programme
of the Allies; once the new shipping pro-
duced each month exceeds the destruc-
tions, the hope of success in this SUBJ
marine campaign is over. Once the yield
Of American troops per month passes
alike the Allied loss and the German re-
sources for replacing his own casualties,
the game is up, because the German will
lack the numbers to enforce his local
victories He will be, like Napoleon at
Waterloo, when the Emperor put in the
Old Guard after the Prussians had ar
feriority of numbers.
Despite all our apprehensions to the
contrary, the German resources in re-
serves are limited. Half million casu-
alties, SO far, have made heavy drafts
upon them and removed a material frac-
ton of his picked troops. And up to
the present moment we are told authori-
tatlvely that America has been able to
put 100000 men into France, at least
half Of whom must now be fighting or
on the line. These men are in all re-
spects save one better troops than Ger
many has or can expect to have during
the war. They are young, the pick of
our youth, physically the best now left
in warstricken Europe Their weak
ness lies in their lack of training, but
unde" battle conditions this will scor be
largely removed. Meantime superiority
IN the quality of troops must count for
something against the superiority in
training Of the otherwise greatly in
ferior German troops
There are left five months of cam
palgnlng in the present year. Before
they are over we should have more than
100000 troops in Europe and upward
of 100000 on the line. Before this time
is up Britain should have nearly 100000
IN the field as the result of new levies.
These two contributions should largely
make good any casualties the Allies will
suffer, conceding the first three blows
have cost them and their foe 100000
casualties apiece. Therefore, even though
the German still maintains a superior
lty OF numbers on the West front, it is
certain that unless he destroys some
large fraction of his opponents forces
NOVprohor ho ID
vantage of numbers we'll in advance Of
the close of the campaign, and with the
loss OF this advantage goes the power
to deal decisive blow.
All now turns upon the speed with
which our troops get to France and the
promptness with which they are thrown
INTO the line, promptness only to be
a1talned by temporarily assigning our
smaller units to our allies. If the pres
ent pace of shipment be maintained and
the existing system of brigading with
the French and the British is continued,
1T IS not too much to hope that by
August or September Americas contri-
Du'lon alone will suffice to deprive the
herman of the superiority of numbers
without which he cannot enforce his
local victories by supreme thrust
mus the appearance of our troops in
Plcardy and in Champagne is the cer-
tam sign of improving Allied prospects
Inc German, seeing these signs, must
hasten his blows, as Napoleon at Water
100 hastened his blows when Prussian
columns were sighted on the road from,
"avre. Quickening the pace means in
creaslng the rapidity of the exhaustion
OF numbers. 1t spells ultimate ruin il,
as at Waterloo, the victory finally
escapes the assailant. But Wellington
would have been ruined at Waterloo
Butcher had failed to keep his pledge
and push to his assistance. The Allies
will be destroyed if there is any hesita.
ton now either in the sending Of our
troops or the prompt transfer Of thoss
sent to the Allied service.