Five Mile Beach weekly journal., 1918-11-15

lii C~HllCluolOIo VI Nv
The entire marketing situation has
so changed since the September Joint
conference as to necessitate an entire
alteration in the plans Of price sta0i-
li~zation. The current peace talk mas
alarmed the holders Of corn, and there
has been a price decline of from 20
cents to 30 cents per bushel. The fact
that the accumulations of low priced
corn In the Argentine and South Afri-
ca would, upon the advent of peace
and liberated shipping, become avail
able to the European market has Gre
ated a great deal Of apprehension on
the part of corn holders. This decline
has spread fear among swine growers
that a similar reduction In the prices
of hogs would naturally follow. More
over, the lower range of corn prices
would, If incorporated in a l3-to-l ra-
ito, obviously result in a continuously
falling price for live hogs. In view
of these changed conditions many
swine producers anticipated lower
prices and as a result rushed their
hogs to market In large numbers. and
this overshipment has added to n
aggravated the decline.
The information of the Department
of Agriculture indicates that the sup
ply of hogs has increased about 8 per
cent, while the highest unofficial esti-
mate does not exceed 10 per cent. in
creased production over last year. On
the other hand, the arrival OF hogs
during the last three weeks in the
seven great markets has been p per
cent. more than last year, during he
corresponding period, demonstrating
the unusually heavy marketing OF he
available supply. In the face of the
excessive receipts some packers have
not maintained the price agreed last
month. On the other hand, many
of the packers have paid over the
price offered to them in an endeavor
ito maintain the agreed price. The re-
suit In any event has been a failure
to maintain the October price basis
determined upon at the September con-
ference and undertaken by the pack
ers. Another factor contributing to
the break in prices during the month
has been the influenza epidemic; 1t
has sharply curtailed consumption OF
pork products. and temporarily de-
creased the labor staff of the packers
about % per cent.
The exports of 130,000,000 pounds
of pork products for October COM
pared with about 100000 pounds
In October q year ago, and the
export orders ~placeable by the Food
Administration for November, amount
to 170,OO0,000 pounds as contrast
ed with the lesser exports OF
9S,OO0,O 600 for November. 1917. The
increased demands of the allies are
continuing, and are in themselves
proof Of the necessity for the large
production for which the Food Admin
~istration asked. The increase in ex-
port demands appears to be amply
sufficient to take up the increase In
hog production. but ~unfavorable mar
ket conditions existing In October af-
ford no fair index of the aggregate
supply and demand.
It must be evident that the emo
nous shortage in fats in the Central
Empires and neutral countries would
Immediately upon peace result in adj
ditional demands for pork products
which, on top of the heavy shipments
to the Allies, would tend materially
to increase the American exports, in
asmuch as no considerable reservoir OF
supplies exists outside Of the United
States. It seems probable that the
present prospective supplies would be
inadequate to meet this world demand
with the return to peace. So far as II
is possible to interpret this fact, 1t ap-
I pears that there should be even q
stronger demand for pork products
after the a and therefore any alarm
of hog producers as to the effect OF
. peace is unwarranted by the outlook.
/ In the light of these circumstances
II is the conclusion Of the conference
! that attempts to hold the price of hogs
to the price Of corn may work out to
the disadvantage Of pork producers,
II Is the conclusion that any interpre-
tation of the formula should be a
broad gagged policy applied over a
long period. 1t Is the opinion of the
Conference that in substitution of the
preyious plans of sterilization the
T iv. STOCK subcommittee of the Agri-
cultural Advisory Board, together with
the specially invited swine representa-
tiyes. should accept the invitation OF
the Food Administration to join with
the Administration and the packers In
determining the prices at which con
trolled export orders are to be placed
This will be regularly done. The In
fuence of these orders will be directed
to the maintenance of the common OBJ
ject-namely, the sterilization II the
price of live hogs so as to secure as far
aa II Ia nossihle fair returns to the