New-York tribune., 1918-05-23
The Next Attack

Unless all the advices and informa-
tion which reach US from France are
totally inaccurate, the third German
blow is likely to fall within the next few
days. In any event, the danger signals
which are now being displayed warrant
a word of caution and of advice as to
what is likely to happen, given the
weight which the next German blow will
have and the time which the Germans
have occupied in preparing it.
In their March and April offensives
the Germans used just short of 14O
divisions, the best of which had been
prepared for the attack over long
months of training. Nothing that skill
or science could give was lacking. This
blow was parried after the Germans
had progressed for some thirty-fve
miles in the south and twelve miles in
the north. The German loss was not
less than 100000 in killed and wounded.
Very few prisoners were taken. The All.
lied loss in the same time was not
much under 350,ooo, together with
many guns, and of the total loss per-
haps 100000 were prisoners When
the German renews his attack he will
still have from sixty to seventy fresh
divisions, not yet used, and he will have
an equal number of divisions very thor
oughly mended since the blood bath of
March and April.
Something like million and half Ger
mans are ready to strike, and thew are
backed by the same formidable artillery
which contributed so much to the
carrier progress. In the presence of
such a threat it is we'll to recognize
that losses in territory and in positions
are inevitable, must be expected and
should in advance be recognized as
having relative, not an absolute. value
II the German fails to DESTROY the
British army; if he fails to compel Foch
to use up Allied reserves more ranid1v
than German; if he spends another
100000 casualtiessin local and restricted
galns' however large these may seem
from day to day, he will lose the OBJ
Jectlve to which he has now committed
the largest force he can ever use IN
this war.
Al the present moment the numbers
are approximately equal. The German
has more guns, as result of his
captures in Russia and Rumania and
Italy, but he has not larger stocks of
ammunition. Allied superiority in the
air remains, and the lessons of the last
two offensives have been learned and
will be applied by single commander
IN chief. No soldier would ask for
better chance than Foch now has. since
numbers and all else are equal. But. on
the other hand, the Allied STRATEGY
which elected the defensive at the out
set OF the campaign of 1918 accented
inevitably local losses and TEMPORARY
reverses. The German accepted this at
the Somme in 1916 and in Flanders last
year, and in both cases, DESPITE local
losses, preserved his line intact.
For America in the new crisis which
Is at hand there is an obvious duty. We
are not merely the reservoir of man
power OF the Allies for the future: we
must be the reservoir of morale. No
one VINO has not been in Europe under
stands the strain which has been placed
upon the peoples at war. No one who
mas not had day-by-day experience in
france or in England can understand
what the burden and the horror of this
conflict have become for those who are
bearing it now and have borne it
through nearly four years. War weari-
ness IN Europe is factor which must
be reckoned with, but it can be reck-
oned with if this country now and dur
ing the critical days which are to come