Grand Forks herald. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1916-1955, 1918-05-13
MONDAY EVENING. MAY 10, 1918.
THE MATTER OF RESERVES

An investigation Of the vital question Of reserves
leads Nj. Paul Scott Mower, a correspondent with the
French armies, to the belief that the kaiser can not keep
up the present drive for another six weeks without dis
asser. Admitting that mo omcial Information on the
subject is available" he sends to the Chicago Daily News
these figures. which he believes TO be near the truth:
In all. the Germans have between e4o and ESQ divi-
.stonA OF which about 2c5 are now on the western FROM.
OF these 40 have been engaged in the presen, battle to
date. but as some have been engaged twice and others
even three times, the total presence Of divisions on the
going it appears that the enemy still has sixty-five fresh
divisions in France. but about ten Of these are generally
considered so poor as to be unfit for offensive action. The
total numb er of fresh divisions available for a new often
siye is therefore about fifty.
What have been the German losses in the present
battle? 1t is impossible to know exactly. but ! can make
what / believe to be a good guess. Experts consider that
. division on the average is withdrawn from the battle
when it loses 1900 men. Some divisions lose more and
some less. but the experience Of the last three years
shows this to. be a fair average. Taking the estimate
that there have been 1856 passages of divisions and null
tiplyins by 1900, we find that the total German losses
have been more than $4,000. This figure is probably
very nearly accurate in the opinion of some Of my French
military friends to whom l have subjected the calcula-
ton.
Let us, now examine the probable state Of the Ger
man reserves. These reserves are not formed into new
divisions. but are, kept in depots TO fill the gaps in the
divisions aanesdg existing. Without them the army would
quickly dvanele away. 1t the beginning Of the offensive
~ men oyer eighteen had been Modified ard the class
OF 1929. that is to say, boys Of seventeen. had been called
for training. There are about 10000 Of these boys, but
they can not possibly be in service before next October.
what reserves. then. did the enemy actually possess
that were ready to fight? AS nearly as can be deter
mined there were about 100000 in the advanced depots
Subtract the loss in the present battle and the remain
der is 100000.
'But to find the present strength of the German
cover from their wounds. Many doctors with whom 1
have talked estimate that 10000 men out of the total
German loss Of -a5o. 900 will again be fit as reserves, max
ing 100000.
y Germany is certainly able to make one more big
snort She has about fifty fresh divisions and plenty of
reserves; but II she loEes another 5000 with the same
rapidly as in the last offensive, the question of electives
will begin to be serious. There is reason to believe that
IL the battle continues on the same scale for another
six weeks, by July /. Field Marshal Won Hindenburg will
have difficulty in finding men to fill the gaps"
Turning to the case of the allies, he notes that since
Americas entrance into the war their reserve has been
made practically inexhaustible." Moreover:
There LIS another little calculation which any one
may make without trouble. 1t was announced before
the battle that the number OF French and British divi-
stons on this front was nearly equal to the number Of
Germans. In the present battle the allies have been
outnumbered often two to one. 1t seems, therefore, ex-
tnemely probable that the allies at the present moment
{nays many more fresh divisions than the Germans have