The Fargo forum and daily republican. [volume] (Fargo, N.D.) 1894-1957, 1918-05-25

losses on the enemy side since
March 81.
The second is the rate at which
the allies are increasing their
strength, especially through Ameri-
can arrivals.
The third is the nature of the
fighting in the air.
AS to the first question, nearly all
has been said that can be said. We
know with something like precision
that there has been a minimum of
100000 German losses since March
l. But above that there is an enor-
nous margin of error-We do not
know how high that margin Of error
may extend. The real total may be
far more than 100000. The reports
that reach US Of what is being said
In Germany Chat is, Of civilian
rumors) seem always to turn on a
fixed figure of 100000. Nearly all
competent observers on the allied
side regard that figure as too high,
but the rumors are certainly wide
spread in Germany, and it was to
meet this rumor that the German
emperor made his extraordinary
public assertion with regard to Brit
ish losses the other day at Aix-l
ChapelIe.
He was quoted as saying that the
British losses would figure almost
precisely 100000, a number which
was evidently running in his head
and in the heads of his audience.
All Europe noted the significance Of
that coincidence.
ESTIMATING GERMAN LOSS IN
SOLDIERS.
The British publish casualty lists
(Which the Germans no longer do)
and by these the folly Of the Ger
man emperors statement may be
tested; Some people have argued
from his speech that the German
casualties are really as high as the
civilian rumor in Germany puts
an imaginary British loss Of 600,
600 in order to offset the real Ger
man loss of that number. This
conclusion would seem to be insuffi-
GENTLY grounded. When it is your
object to keep something secret you
may well have to soothe the public's
feelings, and you may be compelled
to do so by exaggeration at the ex-
pense Of making a fool of yourself
abroad, though saving your face at
home. So until we have much more
evidence before US we must make up
our minds that the enemy's losses
from the beginning Of his offensive
eight weeks ago were at least 49,
900, to which minimum the civilian
rumor in Germany adds no less than
80 per cent, and to which only the
people who know-that is, the bureau
at German headquarters and the
German government-may see an
a. 20
haps 20 per cent. But 20 per cent
is high, and 10 per cent is much
more likely to be the proper addi-
ton. In other words, if you esti-
mate the situation by believing the
German loss to be anything much
over a half million you are almost
certainly exaggerating 1t, and you
will be much safer in keeping to the
minimum figure Of 100000.
OF the rate of allied recruitment,
especially the new men and essential
factor of American reinforcement, we
cannot, of course, be told or say any
thing. This is for the enemy to find
out as he can. But we have had
news this week for the first time of
the presence Of American units on
the northern part Of the line. The
mention which has been officially
issued of this is necessarily vague,
but is sufficient to show that recruit
ment is advancing at greater rate
than had hitherto been hoped. Il
use the word recruitment, of course,
not in the sense Of recruitment at
home, but the sense OF filling the
gaps and increasing, the numbers of
the army which are actually on the
line.)
ALLIES OBTAIN AIR sURREM-
ACY. .-
The third element is the progress