New-York tribune., 1918-11-04
The Next House

Ihe Next House
The present House Of Representatives
was organized by a Democratic minor
ity. The balance Of power rested with
seven Independent and minor party
members, most Of whom voted for the
reelection of Speaker Clark The Re-
publican candidate for Speaker, James
r. Mann, could not command the full
support of his own party So the con-
troll of the House went practically by
default to the Democrats.
In the House to-day there are 215
Democrats-three less than a majority
There are 200 Republicans, 2 Progress
sives, 2 Independents, 1 Socialist and
Prohibitionist. Five seats are vacant
Two of the five vacancies are In Repub-
lican districts. Two Of the present minor
party members are now running for
reelection as Republicans. The Repub-
lican strength is, therefore, 213-fve
less than majority. Only five seats
have to be gained to insure Republican
control
The Republicans have every reason to
expect a gain Of at least two seats in
Kansas. There are now three Repub-
lican Representatives and five Demo-
cratic Representatives from that state.
It Is conceded that the Republican can
didates for Senator and Governor will
win by very large pluralities. The Re-
publican party in the state is again
unified and the Democratic party is di-
vided and disorganized. 1t would not be
surprising if solid Republican delega-
tion of eight were elected tomorrow.
But gain Of two seats is put down as
a certainty.
In Pennsylvania the mushroom Pro-
gressive organizations of 1912, 1914 and
1916 have disappeared. 1t is, therefore.
nearly certain that the Republicans will
recover at least two districts which are
now Democratic. The 2Sth was carried
In 1916, but lost at bye-election in
1917, after the Republican candidate re-
signed because of irregularities in filing
campaign expenditures. Another nor
mally Republican district in Western
Pennsylvania, the 23d, composed of
Fayette, Greene and Somerset counties,
is likely to be recovered The Demo-
cratic plurality there in 1916 was 897.
From present indications the Repub-
licans will regain the I'd Michigan Dis
trict A Republican,, Samuel w. Beakes.
was elected there two years ago on the
face of the returns, but the House
subsequently unseated him. The district
is normally Republican, The 5th District
of Washington elected G. C. Dill, an ex-
treme pacifst, in 1914 and 1916. But
Washington has, now become strong
war state, and Dill's record, which was
one of the worst in the Sixty-fourth and
Slxty-fifth Congresses, is likely to defeat
him.
Carrying these districts and losing
none now held, would give the Repub-
licans PIC members-one more than
majority. But they have also an excel
lent prospect of capturing ten other
seats, one each in the states of Califor
MIA, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, North
Carolina, Delaware, New Jersey, West
Virginia, New York and Ohio. Two seats
may be gained in Colorado if Senator
John F. Shafroth is beaten for reelec-
ton, as now seems likely One seat is
expected to be gained in Massachusetts.
one in Nebraska and one in Missouri.
ignoring roseate expectations, con-
servative estimate would put the Repub-
llcan net gain at seventeen, raising the
Republican membership to 23O. That
would about measure the normal Re-
publican strength in the country, and
mark the return of the natural majority
to power in the legislative branch of the
government, from which it has been
excluded for the last six years by rea-
son of costly factional disagreements.
now happily accommodated.