The Washington herald., 1918-04-07
Allies and Foe Equally Sure
of Victory; Reasons Viewed
German Exhaustion and Blockade Weighed
Against Russia's Fall, Tonnage Lack and
Late Entry of u S. Into War.
BY JOHN LLOYD BALDERsToN.

BY JOHN LLOYD BALDERsTON.
London, March 6 Cby maiD.-Pessi-
mists and croakers in every allied
country are taking advantage of the
opportunity created by the German
success in imposing upon Russia a
shameful peace. This is the darkest
hour of the Allied cause, for the full
weight Of America has yet to be felt,
and the opposition to Germany in the
east has collapsed; a period Of some
months stretches before us, in which
the main burden of the war must be
carried by England.
! According to their temperaments,
men are optimists or pessimists.
though it has comforted me to OBJ
serve that the men who know the
most about the war are generally the
optimists. Meanwhile, as a newspaper
/ reporter, trained to look for facts and
fears, prejudices or opinions, i have
been accommodating material for a
brief summary of the war situation
as 1t stands now, at the beginning of
the fifth campaign. 1 have had ac-
cess to reports concerning the mill
tary, economic and political situations
on both sides, and have tried to set
down a fair analysis Of the struggle
as a whole, as 1t would appear to a
Martian visiting the earth and COM
pletely Indifferent to either the merits
or the result of the world war. Be-
fore considering the great Issues of
the present in more detail, a brief
summary of the position may be
given.
Hopes to StraagIe Allies.
! Germany believes she has won the
war for the following reasons: She
has broken the ring of enemies that
surrounded her. and the Russian army
of more than 100000 men has melted
away. With the disappearance of mil
itary opposition in the east comes the
chance for trade. and IL the raw ma
terials OF the north and Siberia. and
the food OF the Ukraine can be OBJ
tained, the Allied blockade is broken,
and Germany cannot be starved out.
] For the first time the German armies
united face the Allies in the west:
even IL the coming offensives fail in
breaking down our armies. the enemy
thinks his submarines will continue
to take their toll of Allies shipping
until the entente is strangled to death,
this long before enough American
troops can be put in the line TO I'M
dertake a successful offensive in the
west.
The Allies view the same facts-for
there is no dispute about the funda-
mental facts-in a different light. The
peace with Russia, they say. was dis
counted by Germany in 1917 when the
best troops were moved from the east
front and exhausted in repuIsing the
Allied offensives in Artois and Flan-
ders. so that the principal benefit ac-
cruing to Germany from the peace
has been used up IN advance. Politi-
cal anarchy and complete breakdown
of rolling stock will make II impossi-
bic for Germany to defeat the block
ade by obtaining enough food or ma
terials from Russia to change the
course OF the war.
Shipbuilding is increasing, subma-
rine sinkings are confidently expected
for secret reasons to sharply decrease
by summer. and the submarine cam
not strangely the entente, or prevent
America from putting an army in
France whose pressure at the last
will be decisive. With the United
States in the war. the blockade is
starving the enemy countries of raw
| lndl Formerly leaheO
through. Finally, the military success
to the enemy resulting from the Rus
sian revolution is more than counter
balanced by the spread OF Bolshevik
infection among German and Austrian
workers. which has already resulted
in serious strikes, will cause more
trouble and may, IL the war lords
prolong the struggle, involve the
Junkers I'm the fate that overcame the
bureaucrats of Petrograd.
| The arguments used by the most
sober and well-informed circles on our
side, and among the enemy. l have
tried to set down fairly. Not even
newspaper or a judge can sum up
without prejudice arguments in
case in which the existence of his
country is involved. so my firm con-
viction that our arguments are right
and the enemy's wrong may not be
worth much.
How Germans View the War.
Now we can breathe" triumphant
ly cried a Berlin statesman when he
heard that peace had been signed with
Russia. The iron ring OF foes that
was to strangle the Fathorland had
been broken. No longer is Germany