The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1916-1920, 1918-03-26
FRANK Fl. SLNONDS SAYS
ENEMY WILL HALT OR
WINLN NEXT 48HOURS
Asserts Belief Supreme Crisis Of Battle Is at Hand
Hope Until Allies Reserve Army
Strikes and Fails.
BY FRANK n. SlMONDS.

SImONDS.
which they could retire to and keep
!hcir hanks resting upon Paris and
Verdun: the British are beginning to
reach positions which must be held
II very general retirement Is to be
avoided.
The number of prisoners captured by
the Germans. $4,000 in all. does not
suggest any disaster: rather it points
to an orderly but hasty retreat. for in
such a retreat the wounded have to be
left behind The favorable sign was
the steady fall Of the total in the first
three days--16.0O0 on the first. 5000
on the second. 5000 on the third. The
jump to $1,000 on Sunday indicates
that In their forced retreat from the
front between the Disc and the Somme.
between Nesle and Chauny, where the
French have now interviewed. the Brit.
ish again had to abandon their
wounded.
In a similar period of days in the
victory over the Italians the Germans
claimed more than 100000 prisoners,
while even at Verdun they claimed
10000 in the flrst Ave days. The
British and French in their combined
Arras and Aisne offensive a year ago
took around $4,000 prisoners and
nearly 500 guns in the first few days.
AS 1t stands now the Germans have
advanced almost across the devastated
district of their great retreat OF year
ago. They have behind them now only
n few roads and practically no rail-
roads. The task Of bringing up their
heavy guns and munitions, without
which they cannot get on, must be tre-
mendous. The British. on the other
hand, are nearly but not quite hack on
their old front OF the Somme. and
thus have the advantage OF all the
communications constructed for that
offensive OF nearly two years ago.
First Week Tells story.
Not only have the Germans to bring
up their heavy artillery. bat they have
to register II upon the new British gun
positions They are fighting now. ant
must fight henceforth. for time nj
least. under most unfavorable condi-
tions. while the British conditions, so
far as transport. reserves and posi-
/ tions. are better than at any time since
the attack began.
Now IN the history OF all the great
offensives In the west so far the crisis
has passed by the end of the first
week. AT Nerdun the French counter
attacked OH the sixth day and the
German rush was over. At Arras the
British had to stop after Ave days.
/ Save where the original thrust has
ended in a complete rupture Of the
enemy's lines. and this has only hap
pened in the east, there has been no
continued advance after the first week.
/ So far the Germans have not broken
/ the allied line: they have not pierced
! II either at Bapaume or to the south
while they have temporarily halted
in the centre. Their efforts have been
stupendous and even a machine like
the German has its limits. We may
then fairly conclude that we are about
at the crest of the German flood tide
the worst must soon be over. and UP
to the present hour nothing like the
worst that might have happened has
| occurred.
Further than this, the allied re-
serve army. the strategic reserve oi
the Versailles conference, has not in
tervened. 1t must have been ready
when the blow fell because there was
no effort on the part OF the Germans
TO hide their plans. Until it inter
,cnes and fails 1t would be absurd tc
view the situation ns desperate. AND
the longer that the German advance
can be parried the further the Ger
mans get away from their heavy guns
and their munitions: the more ex
haus+ed become :heir men the better
the chance Of the success OF the
counter stroke.
Territory Lost OF Slight Value.
On the other hand, the German ad
vance Is beginning to bite deeply int
the allied front. II tho retreat con
ttnues for many more miles the Ger
mans will he able to enter French ter
ritory which is still undevastated an'
to threaten the communications be
tween the British and the French. 81
far the territory evacuated has m
value, thanks to German vandalism |
year ago, and therefore Its surrende
means nothing, but the British hav'
retired almost to the frontiers OF thi
desert now
At present great deal OF specula
ton Is going forward as to the posi-
bilities OF a larger strategic character
such as an advance upon Paris or o
the rolling of the British back upo'
the coast. But these must DC precede
by the defeat and even the r0ut O
the larger part OF the British army
And It is to rout the British that tn
Germans are striving now. At tn
Marine the objective was the Frenc
armies. not Paris. To-day Haig's arm
(Continuod on Third Pd9e.)