Evening star., 1918-02-16
SUMS UP GERMAN
STRENGTH IN WEST
Numerically, No Cause for
Alarm Over Coming Drive,
Simonds Says.
HOW AMERICA WILL AID
BY FRANK H. SIMONDS.

BY FRANK H. SIMONDs.
| Copyright, 1918, by the Mcclure Newspaper
| Syndicate.)
Official figures supplied by the French
general staff furnish something like
an exact notion Of the numbers which
the Germans are to use in their coming
attack These French figures show
that the Germans have on the line ir
the west some 113 divisions and be-
hind it, as a strategic reserve, about
half as many. 63. to be accurate. We
may reckon the present German divi-
sion as between 10000 and $4,000 and
can thus estimate the German troops
on the line at about 1,250,000 and those
| behind it at around 100000. All told
the Germans then have in the west
some 100000 at least and possibly
| 2,250,0OO troops, which are their chief
resource for the coming year.
Looking backward, we may recall
that at the close of the battle of the
Somme last February, that is, on the
eve Of the great retreat, the Germans
had 1873 divisions in the west. The num-
Der rose to 154 during the spring and
summer offensives. 1t fell away again
then it began to mount steadily.
1t reached 155 in early December.
Roughly speaking, the Germans have
then moved some twenty-five divisions,
upward of 100000 men, from the Rus
sian to the west front in the last three
months. When they had 144 divisions
in the west they had seventy-nine in
the east, and we may thus fix the total
number of German divisions on all
fronts at about 225. a gain of twenty
five since the days of the Somme and
of Verdun.
A Diminution to Be Noted.
But it is well to remember that there
has been a steady diminution in the
total strength OF the German division.
Nearly two years ago the Germans be-
gan reducing their divisions in strength
greater mobility. Thus the 200 divi-
sions of the Somme period probably
included as many men as the 225 which
are now organized. And at the time
they reduced the strength of the divi-
sions they also reduced the fighting
value of many divisions by taking from
them the best soldiers and putting them
in special divisions of so-called storm
troops" Presumably the larger portion
of their present strategic reserve in the
their Verdun army of two years ago
was made up of selected units.
Roughly speaking. then. the Germans
are holding the western line with
than they have kept before the French
and British for the last three years.
They have maintained in the east some
fifty divisions. little more than 100000.
and, given their ambitions and pur-
poses in the east. this number cannot
be reduced materially. We are safe,
then. at fixing at around 100000 the
number of troops they have actually
available for their great blow-that is.
something more than sixty and less
than seventy five divisions.
Now, What Does This MeanP
Now, what does this mean? At the
Somme the Germans put in ninety
seven divisions. but of the ninety
seven they used many twice and a few
up the equivalent of 140 divisions. At
Verdun they employed rather more
than fifty divisions.
In the fighting in Flanders this summer
and fall they. used sixty-one divisions !;
that is, used them up 30 that they had to
be retired from the line Thus it is a fair
assumption that the Germans have no
larger free reserve for attack than they
the Somme or in Flanders for defense
Nor have they any large resources to draw
new divisions from.
On the other hand. the French and Brit
iSh may be safely estimated as having a
million each on the line or in reserve And
this is approximately the German strength
In addition. the United States is reported
by NJ Tardieu to have above 200, 900 men.
approximately the equivalent of twenty
German divisions, in France. all of which
may be used some time during the present
year. Thus. if there be any slight dis
parity between allied and German num-
bers. which is exceedingly doubtful, it
will be removed as the American con-
tingents now in France are able to go on
the line.
Can't Expect Many Austrians.
AS to Austrian troops. the French
assertion that very few. if any. Aus
trian divisions can be expected on the
west front. where Germany is to strike.
Austria never has had over $4,000
men in line at any time; she has only
seventy-nine divisions now. forty
four of which are on the Italian front
and the balance of which are needed to
garrison Galicia. Rumania and her own
and conquered districts. where the pop.
ulation is either disloyal or rebeIlious.
In SO far numbers are concerned,
therefore. there is no occasion for
alarm over the coming German often
sive. Germany has a large strategic
reserve. she has brought some twenty
divisions from east to west since the
Russian collapse became complete.
She has, in addition, combed out the
| units on the east for the best material
end weeded out the poor material from
the divisions in the west. but she has
no considerable numerical advantage. if
indeed sne has any. and she has moth
ing like the advantage in numbers OF
material which she had in her drive
at Calais in 1914 or her assault upon
Eerdun in 1916 On the contrary. we
are going to see great battle in the
west between two opponents. about
equal in numbers and we are going to
see the Germans attempt under far less
favorable circumstances to accomplish
what they failed to accomplish at Ypres
and at Verdun and what the allies
failed to accomplish at the Somme anC
| in Champagne and Artois. in 1916 and
| in 1917, namely to make a complete
| break through and follow it up with a
crushing and complete victory.
VIM. Lockett Agnew Dies in London
| LONDON February 16. - William