Evening star., 1918-07-07

perform. The chances Of q decisive
victory in the field are daily LESSEN
ing; the next smash must bring VIC
or the game is up. SO far as Paris or
the channel is concerned.
On the other hand. the next time the
German attacks he win probably make
considerable gains, he may win i'm
presstve local successes. He may even
always recognizing that 1t Is utterly
improbable that the ground won will
get him to Calais or to Paris. But, IL
the campaign ends without an allied
counter offensive. which is likely. and
with the, German army still patiently
holding considerable areas of France
won in the flfth campaign Of the war.
then the army can rest in It's trenches
Tor the winter season and let German
diplomacy have its chance.
Hun Diplomacy-what to Expect.
Past experience, indicates pretty
clearly the direction which German
diplomacy will take. It's double pur-
pose Will be to divide the allies by
onering one of the nations united
with us against the Hun substantial
profits, say Alsace-Lorraine to France.
and at the same time seeking to
capitalize the war. weartness OF the
trench people, the agony due to
the new wounds and the new devas-
tation. Austria may again be depu-
ti1ed to carry the message.
Or there may be a convenient fight
between the moderates" of Germany,
like that Of last summer, which
served to distract and disrupt allied
preparations and allied opinion,
while German agents were at work in
Russia preparing the way for the
great cnl1an which
at Brest-Litovsk
In the last analysis, however, Ger
man diplomacy is bound to seek to
achieve a German peace by transform
ing any negotiation into a bargain
| counter and making sacrifices, and
conceivably real sacrifices. in the west
20 insure the preservation of what
has been conquered in the east.
Whas Germany has to fear is that
her enemies will continue the war un-
tll they are victorious in the field and
can, In their turn. erect. not shadow
states. but real states out of the sub.
1ect and suppressed nationalitfes along
ner own boundaries or within AUSTRIA h
and Balkan limits. A real Poland. WITH
.S.oog;ooo people. with gateway upon
Poles united to Austrian and Russian.
would close the way to Russia, would
Dc sentinel on Germany's eastarn
marches like that which Europe again
ana again erected in the low countriea
against France in other centuries.
IF Poland Were Restored.
A restored Poland. unified Rumania,
| q southern slav state on the Danube
an international control of Constan-
tinople and the straits-these things
would mean the end of all of Ger
manys ambitions and the destruction
OF all her hopes. II in addition, Aus
tria could be resolved into its COM
ponent parts, or transformed into a
real federation of states based upon
| race, the work would be complete. but
this last is perhaps beyond the power
OF the most victorious alliance Europe
| has ever seen.
What is possible is to bar the sew.
eral roads OF the Germans into lands in
habited by the weak and the defense-
| less. whether the anarchic Russiana az
the hapless Turks. by the creation o1
states which have all the necessary
elements out of which to construct OF
reconstruct national life. And it il
this order Of constructive statesman
ship on the part OF her enemies which
! Germany will seek to- block at ali
hazards
Yet it must be Transparent to every
thoughtful man that the real issues
TO De settled are not those issues
which, because of their western char
acter, are most familiar to the allied
pubiics. Certainly Belgium must be
liberated and restored. France must
have Alsace-Lorraine and Italy her
lrredenta, but Germany could pay All
these prices out of her collected re-
sources and still win the war. She
might resign to Britain the title to
all her own lost colonies, from Samoa
to Togoland, and not feel the cost. n
she were permitted to hold on In the
Baltic provinces, in Poland. in the
Ukraine, in the Crimea and in Asfatic
Turkey.
Real Danger to World.
The real danger to the world lies in
that opportunity which Germany may
win in this war to organize the millions
OF Slavonic and Latin peoples along her
frontiers and along Austrian frontiers.
The best hope OF permanent defeat Of
German purposes to rule the world, to
restore the domination of the Russian
empire, must be found in the creation
along the pathways of German expan-
sion or strong states capable of develop
ing into still stronger states and efrec-
lively barring the road forever. Such
states are Poland. Rumania and Serbia,
while 1t IL exactly as important thaf
German rule should be abolished at Com
stanttnop1e and the Osmanli empire re-
solved Into its natural elements.
The greatest danger for the future
does not lie in the German threat to
Paris or Calais; we may lose both and
win the war. and IT il hardly conceiya-
bio that we shall lose either. The great