The Washington herald., 1918-10-15
PREDICTION OF
REAM REALIZED
Holland Says Late F Financier
Foresaw German Trade
Ruin.


Kaiser began the European war and
when there still remained some doubt
respecting the attitude or the action
OF Germany. the view commonly held
among the leaders in the financial
district OF New York was that Ger
many would not dare to undertake a
war because of the peril OF possible
destruction of the enormous overseas
commerce which Germany had Gre
ated. This view was voiced by the
late Norman b. Ream, whose promi-
nent association with, the United
States Steel Corporation and his other
important enterprises, such, for In
stance, as the promotion Of the
Clfnchheld Railroad, justified his
friends in giving careful heed to his
views upon business conditions. Mr..
Ream spoke OF the experience which
the United States Steel Corporation
had met with while attempting to en-
large our foreign markets. The for
eiSn sales department Of the sales
division had encountered in South
America. in Australia and in the Far
East German competition which was
not fair hut was saturated with in
able to build up a large market for
their iron and steel commodities.
they also. Mr.. Ream said, almost
matched Great Britain in the markets
o< South America. and they were rap
idly pressing Great Britain with re-
spect 10 commercial prestige.
1t seemed incredible to Mr.. Ream
and to others with whom he was
chatting. some of whom are i'm
pUrtant financial leaders, that Ger
Elny would dare to risk the loss
r. the wonderful world trade she
mad hIilt up in thirty years. More
Over there was the question OF
financing the war.
Two-thirds of Fleet Lost.
All that Mr.. Rcam and other
fT- -cial ;JGGIla predicted respect
~ the los: II GerH.auy's OTel seas
trade has been justified. One Of
the leading authorities reports that
.wO-thirds of the German trade
las been lost to Germany partly
through seizure or capture and
partly through destruction.
Prior to the war Germany pos
sessed nearly 10000 vessels of a
size that enabled them to sail the
seas over and carry German pro-
ducts. The aggregate tonnage Of
these vessels was 5000, 600. Today
Germany possesses almost no sea-
going ships and the few that she
does have do not dare to under
take Oceaa-wide commerce.
ReferGnce has been made to
HambEfE as a phenomenal foreign
trade center for tire German en-
pige. In the year preceding the out
bJcak Of the war there was con-
Eentrated at Hamburg an over
seas commerce whose money value
w1S about $-,"C6.OOO,J' year.
That - all L.-T" nON. 1h- city l.
as = solatc a. far IS trace is C -
ccrncd as is No Mans Land
Then again there is Bremen. a
port Of which Germany was proud
and to the building up Of which
her government anJ her Industrial
leaders gave great deal Of
thought and energy. In the year
before the war began there was
concentrated at Bremen an inter-
national trade the money value Of
which was nearly SGOo.N0e,0OO.
There is no international trade
concentrated at Bremen now.
In the year preceding the outbreak
OF the war the aggregate foreign trade
Of Germany, almost all of which was
carried upon her ships, was almost
exactly $5,OOO.OO0,OOO. She was a long
way ahead of the United States. and
was pressing Great Britain very CLOSE
". some Of her international trade
was not sea borne, as for instance her
trade with Belgium. There is none
Of that left. Her trade with Russia
partIy enforced and stimulated by her
drastic commercial treaties amounted
to nearly S5jOOOO.O0O. Almost all OF
that is gone, and the trade with
France, which amounted to S325.OoO,OO
a year, Of course, has been obliterated.
Germany's Best Customer.
One Of the best customers Germany
secured was the United States. Her
trade with this country in 1913 amount
ed to nearly 500, coo. That trad" las
been extinguished. 1t was rep rted le-
Gently that the immense foreign sea
trade Germany had before the war
hardly anything is left, except some
precarious fragments with Sweden,
Russia, Denmark and Holland
The wonder is whether it will be
possible for Germany after the war is
ended to regain any amount of the
great trade she created and which she
threw into the balance when the war
began. That will depend upon the ac-
tion OF Great Britain, France and the
United States. In the opinion Of the
best judges there will be no formal
trade boycott on Germany. but in
stead of that England. France and the
United States will by methods that
are justifable find themselves in pos
session of much the greater part of
the trade Germany lost.
BY the year 1920 the United States
will have a merchant feet in the ag-
gregate OF 100000 tons. and as one
Of the direct results of war the United
States has already become the great
est shipbuilding nation in the world
and is sure to be within a year in
possession Of a tonnage which will
provide a merchant fleet adequate for
our overseas commerce after the war
is ended HOLLAND.