The Covington leader. (Covington, Tenn.) 18??-current, 1918-08-15


what / have learned during the past
few weeks, am inclined to the view
that the cotton farmers today are re-
solved and are prepared to pursue a
more rational course. 1 find little
evidence that the actual farmer is
the least panicky over the cotton sit
uation. He remembers that sad ex-
perience Of 1914, when we brought
a big crop to market just after the
world war broke, and because there
was then more cotton than could be
sold and delivered, we fell into hys-
terra and sacrificed large part of
lit below cost Of cultivation. If we
had been wiser then, we would have
retired a small part of the crop and
sold the greater part of it at fair
prices, because as matter Of fact.
we had to hold a small part and I'LL
timately we absorbed it in the re-
duced crops Of the three succeeding
years.
"Some people seem to have the
notion that the situation now is as
serious as it was in 1914. 1t does
not SO appear to me. But even if it
were, if we will only profit by the
experience of 1914 we can easily solve
the problem.
"Let us first analyze the statisti-
cal position. The July crop report in
dicated a production Of 15,300,000
bales. That estimate is based upon
an acreage of 6.2 per cent in excess
Of last year and upon condition Of
1868 per cent, compared with 70.3
per cent in 1917 and 1913 per cent
| for the 1O-year average. Unfavor-
able weather from this time forward
during the growing season, or early
frost, or both, might reduce that es-
innate full million bales The boil
weeyil has ample time yet to reduce
the estimate half million bales.
StiIl, we must accept the estimate
as probability.
We had manufactured in the Unit
ed States for the IL months ending
June 30, 6,049,544 bales. The con-
sumption for June was 27,464, and
the July consumption will probably
be as much. and this means that for
the IL months ending July 81, we will
have manufactured something over
six and half million bales, 1t is
fair to assume that we will manufac-
ture at least as much next year, and
every condition indicates that we will
manufacture more. / think it alto
gether safe to assume that wcwill con-
sumo of the new crop at least seven
million bales in American. mills. We
have exported for the ii months
ending June 80, 4.256,352 bales. By
the end of July we will have exported
something over four and half mil
mions. If we could not manufacture
more than we manufactured last year,
and if we could not export more, Of
course we would have a surplus Of
something like four million bales. |
do not consider present stocks as
constituting a surplus from the crop
Of 1917, The cotton on hand in con-
Stunning establishments on June 30,
was 1861, 1922, compared with 1,743,-
1927 last year, and the cotton in stor-
age for the corresponding dates was
~. 117,300 compared with 1,402,403. In
these two items we have only $685.
1862 bales more than we had at this
time last year. That is a mere trifle
in view of the increasing demand for
cotton goods on account of the scare
lity and high prices of wool and silk.
"0f course, no man can say with
any certainty how much shipping will
be available for export during the
next IL months, but we do know that
at the present time the allied coun-
tries are constructing ships faster
than they are being destroyed and
that submarines are being destroyed
faster than they are being built. |
hope that we can maintain this rate
of progress; in that event there may
be considerably more shipping for
cotton the coming year than we had
durig the closing year without jeop-
during the closing year without jeop-
ardizing or decreasing the military
movements. We do know that Eu-
rope needs cotton. The total visible
supply Of cotton on the world on July
IL was 3,37O,211 bales, compared with
3,O26,9O4 bales b 1917, 1861, 272
bales in 1916, and 5,21S,784 bales in
1916. Total European stocks on the
same day were 443 900 bales. COM
pared with 638,000 in 1917, 1,241, 900
in 1916, and 2,688,OOO in 1915.
"One million or two million bales
Of cotton in European stocks is no l
more to be regarded as a menacing
surplus than a million to two mil
lion bales in American mills. In fact,
any vbell-conducted manufacturing
enterprise is not comfortable without
having in hand its raw materials
sufficient for one to five months. In
addition to the low stocks in Eupore,
everybody perfectly understands that
stocks of dry goods in Europe are
Interestingly loW. This is all to say ,
hat Europe can easily take two or
,hree million bales more of our cotton !
his year than she has taken during
he closing year if the shipping can be
spared to transport it.
IF we can manufacture a. half mil |
ion bales more in the United States !
lext year, and If we can export a
million to million and half bales
more next year, we will have pro-
tided for the greater part of the max
mum prospective surplus Of 100000
Dales. If we can thps increase ex-
ports ard if the estimate of 10 900. Ii
300 bales should fall short a million I
nalnS nv yvpafhar. ~. xuaavil dam 4 % .