The sun., 1918-08-25
LOSSES THREATEN
GERMAN STRATEGY
Enemy's Plan Was to Retreat
Leisurely to Old linden
burg Line.
PEACE OFFENSIVE THEN
May Offer to Retire in West If
Permitted to Retain Con-
quests in East.
PEACE OFFENSIVE THEN
ny II. sIDEBOTHAM

One Of the Foremost Military Critics OF
Special Gable Despatch 10. THE suE fsom the
London Times Serrice.
Copyright, 1918: all rights reserved.
LONDON, Aug. 24.-To-day's news Is
exceedingly promising. Had the Brit
ish in their attack on Thursday got
across the railway line and won through
to Bapaume II would have bean one OF
the greatest strategic victories OF the
war; not even excepting the battle OF
the Marne, for II would not only have
forced the Germans out OF positions
exceedingly valuable for them. but 1t
would have compromised their whole
future plan of action.
But though we did not manage to
achieve this result in ono day We are
making steady progress and shall prob
ably manage IL in four or five days.
To-day we have news of the capture
of Gomiecourt. Had We brought that
of on the first day the Somme battle,
which began in July. 1915, would at
last have been over.
Bapaume, now threatened by Gen.
Byng's army. was not occupied by the
British until March II. 1917, nearly
nine months after the opening OF the
battle OF the Somme. At no point when
that prolonged battle opened were we
behind the lire OF the British advance.
which began three days ago. At most
points we are a long way ahead. Yet
in three days we are in better posi-.
ton than we were after six months II
hard fighting Better proof could not
be desired OF the vast improvement Of
our general position and the tactics that
led to It.
New Tactics Employed.
At that time our attacks and those OF
the French extended from a point on the
Anere opposite the commanding fortress
of Thiepval, along the line Of the
Somme. Now our attacks are flowing
around. not over. the old Somme battle
feld. tThis is the third battle of the
Somne;- the second was fought last
spring.) It's being fought mainly on
The wings. The left wing. north Of the
Ancre. being carried, our advance went
to within four miles or less of Bh-
paume. When Gen. Byng stopped Gen.
Rawlinson took up the tale on the old
Albert front.
Yesterday the fighting was general
all along the line trom Cojeul right down
to Lihons. Near Chaulnes 1t made a
double turning movement OF a most am
bilious character. The advance through
Chaulnes toward Peronne or Achiet-le-
Grand to Bapaume (and on this line We
made good progress yesterday would
make of the old Somme battlefield a
great salient which the enemy would be
compelled To evacuate. not as before by
hard toll and the frightful cost Of six
months OF frontal attacks. but in con-
sequence of pressure upon his TANKS.
The same sort of thing IL happening in
the angle between Chaulnes and Ailette.
where Roye and Noyon are ready to fall
like ripe fruit into the lap of the French.
German Gains Threatened.
There has been no such reaction
against the advance of Mangin's army
between the Disc and the Aisne as
against our advance north Of the Ancre.
The reason is twofold: There Is evil
dence OF . genuine decentralization of the
Germans opposite Mangin such as does
not exist further north. and, secondly,
behind the Germans who are retrcating
before Mangin there are any number Of
good defensible positions at Laon, La
Fere and Masslf. The advance of the
British north of the Ancre, though
shorter by measurement in miles. is
strategically more important Another
two or three miles more on this flank
and we shall automatically wipe out all
gains consequent to the German victory
at ST. Quentin and shall prejudice all
German plans for the future.
AS observed yesterday, what is now
happening Is equivalent to the so-called
voluntary retreat of the spring of
1917. Rather it is meant TO be equiva-
lent TO II. but in fact II is not For
whereas the retreat was then unmolested,
now the initiative Is with us. They are
not evading W as we hustle after them.
There Is now no question of the enemy
resumlng his offensive on the French
'front.'. II he had that In mind why
should he be evacuating all his gains of
this spring and early summer? He has
given up all the hope that Ludendorfr
held out to him earlier in the year. He
IS going back as he went back in the
early spring OF 1917 because he wants to
ave men for offensives elsewhere; be-
cause he believes that on the new Hin
denburg line he can do what he did on
the old Hindenburg line last year
Enemy's New Strategy.
His plan is this: First. to fall back
on the defensive in the west: second
to accumulate eastern gains which will
| help his peace offensive this autumn,
Let us take each part OF this plan
| separately. First-falling back on a
line which Is apart from gains near
Ypres (Which he will attempt to keep)
he will form new line roughly coin
cident with the old Hindenburs line,
He wanted to reach this line about the
time of the advent OF winter, which
would enable him to settle down com
fortably, Under the pressure of our
attacks in the spring he was being hur
ried toward 1t far faster than he wished
with heavier losses of men and ma
teral. He will reach 1t before winter
and before the fort!fications are com
plete-perhaps before his troops have
had time 10 recover from the shock,
This retreat to the new Hndenburg
line will not be n retreat TO a line at
all, but to n fortified zone so deep that
II cahnot be pierced through, so he
hopes. by any surprise, however sue
ceesful. Our attacks on this line when
they begin will be punctuated by the
enemy with offers more or less plausible
of peace on the west front II we do
well, they will be more plausible. II
III, less so.
VIII Bargain for Peace.
Meanwhile he will accumulate what
assets he can in fhe east. 1t will be a
case OF "strophe" and "anti-strophe /"
"Strophe" being retirement on the west
and offers in the east more or less seduc-
/