New-York tribune., 1918-06-23
Great Opportunity Seen for
American Propagandists
to Play Part
Seeds of Revolution
Sown for Long Time
Observers Expect Collapse
of Morale Ultimately to
Decide the Issue
By Arthur S. Draper
ls.,ec,nl CnhIe tn rhe rr,bunel


Copyright. 1915 BY The Tribune Association)
LONDON, June 22.-For many
months certain newspapers and pub
licists have prophesied the economic
collapse of the Central Powers and
their military defeat through exhaus
ton. In the summer of 1915 cam
paign along these lines was started.
and from time to time the date on
which Austria and then Germany would
collapse was extended.
Then came the ruthless submarine
warfare and the rather lean and anx-
icus days for the Allied peoples, who
learned 20 appreciate what a food
shortage meant and to understand
something of the effect of the economic
strain undergone by the enemy peo-
pies.
Now come reports of bread riots in
the Dual Monarchy, of strikes among
munition workers and of peace parades.
But the very newspapers and publlcists
who foretold these events and others
Of more radical character warn the
Allied peoples that the reports are
simply camoufagc to disguise some
startling enemy project.
Good Time for Study
Believing the public is of short mem
ory. they do not bother to reconcile
their earlier representations with the
present warnings. Perhaps they were
right in their earlier forecasts and
equally accurate, however inconsistent,
in their present deductions.
ho nj
campagn in the West is a good time
to study the Austrian situation, remem-
bering that the strength of the Central
Powers Is no greater than its weakest
member, and that Germany's war policy
Is dependent to a large extent upon
developments in the Dual Monarchy.
The war has been more costly proper
tlonately for Austria than for any
other OF the chief belligerents except
Russia.
Then. although she contributed heav-
;ly to the economic support of Ger
many, she lacked the internal organ
izaton and showed, little capacity for
efficiency in moulding the empire into
war machine such as the German,
British or American.
Within Austria's various groups are
dissatisfied peoples who considered the
war an opportunity to further their
to obstruct their rulers.
When rations ran low-bread, meat,
fat, wool, cotton, leather, tobacco and
other things normally considered
necessities-the Austrians fought on
with little complaint, accepting the
word of their rulers that to wait
meant their military dominance by
Russians. When Russia collapsed and
Rumania fell out and Italy staggered
h. co. hi y,
subjects of Emperor Charles saw vis-
ions of an early peace and relief from
sacrifice and the suffering of war. From
the Ukraine great quantities of food
were to come Immediately, and Italy
was expected TO make peace. Instead
OF the Ukraine stores coming, the bread
rations were reduced. Instead Of an
Italian peace came the colossal Aus
trian failure.
Go back 10 the spring Of 1917 and
recall Emperor Charles's letter to his
cousin about the war aims of France
ana Germany. 1t is a fact that the
masses of the Dual Monarchy believe
Germany is blocking q general peace.
II Is true that Austrians believe much
Of their economic suffering is due to
the greed Of Germany. 1t is true they
assumed an offensive against the Ital-
ians because the German militarists
demanded they attack the Allied right
wing. in the hope of tightening Luden-
DORIS task at the centre and left
wing.
For weeks the German newspapers
nave discussed the Austrian offensive
as II it were dictated by German mill
.arists. For weeks the Austrian press
has complained bitterly and compared
unfavorably their own and. Germany's
economic positions. Between the two
empires there has grown up spirit Of
resentment possible only under the
t'ress of long and costly war.
Chances for Revolution
= VIII there be revolution in the
Dual Monarchy? 1 doubt it,, largely be-
saase machine gun quiets revolution
ary tendencies. If a revolution comes
is likely to start in the army and not
among the civilian population and to
sake the form of Wholesale surrenders
ana mrtinous outbreaks.
mere are plenty of seeds Of revolu-
Ion among the Austrian forces, whose
song association with the Russians is
gsVuhd to have considerable effect on
'ae morale of the soldiers.
Few persons who have studied this
war oeiieve it will end by military oc-
Supation by one group of another's ter
;;su'y. .;su Most OF them believe exhaus-
uo.., -, S"S 1eouieoHt COliapSo or
TTeOraie Teaie will ultimately decide the issue.
c,.a. ,nss means diplomacy must play q
AZ this analysis Of the Austrian posi-
sn !s accurate, has Allied diplomacy
e,ss mad finer opportunity? Instead
~ worrying about the German peace
ssuensive, why cannot the Allied roy-
nments grab the diplomatic initiative
ss om them? Isn't the offensive .stiH
sne best form Of the defensive? Amer
~ sn propagandists have an opportunity
~ pay part second only to that of
se men who are fighting on the
lacking up the British and Freuch