The Birmingham age-herald., 1918-11-15
ADVANCE DATE ON
 GERMAN SITUATION
By HOLLAND

By HOLLAND
 New York, November 14.-(Special) Eighteen months ago some of those who are directing one of the largest American corporations received inti- nations from a reliable source which justified them, they believed, in predict ing the European war would be speed fly ended. They were in close touch probably by way of Switzerland or it may be through Holland, with some of the internal conditions in Germany. The advices which they received were in accord with some of the communi- cations which the more influential bankers of New York had also received, and they felt sure that Washington was also in possession of like information
 They were told that the internal eco- homie, banking and fiscal conditions in Germany and the prospective continued loss of world trade had greatly alarmed many of the industrial leaders and al- most all the bankers of Germany. It seemed as though Germany was strained economically at that time to the breaking point, Therefore, the pre- sumption was strong that irresistible pressure would be brought by the eco- homie leaders in Germany upon tho military party which would result in sincere and responsible attempts to secure an early peace. It appears, how. ever, that the military party was too strong at that time and that it's feel ing of strength was based upon the be- lieved that it would drive it's army to the French and Belgian coast and also to Paris, and in that way secure peace by victory.
 The economic condition in Germany two years ago was very threat tening. Our bankers and industrial leaders be. lieve that when the whole truth is known. as it will be pending negotia- tions for peace or the conclusion of peace by treaty, should there be any responsible government in Germany with which to negotiate, the world will be appalled, at the magnitude of the economic, fiscal and financial disturb ance which the war has caused in Ger many. It is said by leaders in the fnan- cial district that the German military party was confident that such terms of peace as Germany would exact would involve the payment to Germany of in. demnities great enough to make it pos sible to repair the internal damage done in Germany by the war.
 WILL THERE BE REPUTATION?
 It seems to some of the financial leaders as though it is inevitable that the colossal debt accumulated by Ger many chiefly with it's own people whereby funds sgswere secured to carry on the war, must be repUdiated. The hope is that with the assistance of the United States and allied governments a financial cataclysm of that kind in Ger many can be prevented. To repudiate the debt would be to involve not only the German people themselves but in- directly at least and possibly to an alarming extent the peoples of other countries
 Serious as is the danger which would be caused by the repudiation of her great debt. nevertheless, it Is not in | the view of financial leaders the most serious of the conditions which will 1 confront Germany. After the war be- | tween the states was ended. the great debt created by the Confederate gov ernment and the obligations amount- l ing to some millions which were sold in London were not repudiated because l there was no government to repudia-e | them.
 | They simply lapsed as did the conti- mental currency issued at the time of the war of the revolution. It may | be that with a change of government 1 in Germany none of these obligations will be openly repudiated but will be allowed to become extinguished as was | the debt created by the Confederate 1 government. But Germany stands to | lose enormous territory and millions | of population She is to lose Alsace
 and Lorraine and probably there is | no German possession whose loss will
 occasion greater anxiety than that which will be occasioned by the return | of Alsace and Lorraine to France. For
 In these provinces Germany has found the abundant supplies of ore and in them she has highly developed her steel and iron industries. So also one
 of these provinces contains vast and
 probably inexhaustible resources IT potash.
 The full development of these pot ash mines will go far toward reliev.
 ing the world Independence upon Ger
 many for potash supplies. Then. too
 Germany is to lose the great prov.
 inces of Silesia and Posen and perhap.
 west Prussia She will lose all of hel I colonial possessions and her total pop ulation, by reason of these losses, vii
 be reduced from about 75,000.000 to { little over 60,000,000.
 II The wisest men in England an,
 France and many of the leaders II
 this country have spoken occasionall,
 of the folly of attempting to reduc,
 Germany to a condition of importance fBaron dEstonurellesh de Constant
 who is we'll and favorably known in tn,
 United States, and who has professet
 the fondest admiration for the Amefi can system of democratic-republic
 form of government, has been since tn,
 war started strong advocate of th'
 military activities of France. althous,
 before the war he was distinguishet
 as one of the worlds leading advo cates of peace In letter to a frien,
 tn New York the baron stated, som ' months ago. that he would deplore an, attempt to reduce Germany to a con dition of industrial and commercial i'm tpotence. He said that the world need
 ed German products and German,