New-York tribune., 1918-11-28

the latest phase of the Marine deal
that little attention was paid to
news of equal or greater impor-
tance, from the financial as we'll as
the industrial viewpoint; namely,
that the steel trade is about to face
the first severe test Of the read
justment to peace conditions. Most
priorities were dropped week ago !;
and now it is announced that the
beginning of next week will mark
the cessation of ALLEGATIONS of the
metal. Save only for price fixing,
there will be practically a free and
uncontrolled market for the metal
after next Saturday. AnH unless
something unexpected should de-
velop, price fixing, too, will be aban-
doned month later. Meanwhile,
as most orders for steel products
are placed more than month in
advance of delivery, it may be said
that next week will find the old
order of things fairly reestablished.
The industry will stand on it's own
bottom. And the question which
every one is asking is, Will the sup
pressed demand for steel and the
new demand for reconstruction pur-
poses abroad be sufficient to sub
stantially replace the cancellations
of war steel contracts?
There are no data upon which to
base more than the merest guess,
but it seems to be the consensus of
opinion in the steel trade that there
will be sufficient business to keep
plants going at high speed for an
indefinite period; and this view is,
apparently, shared to some extent
by consumers of steel, for there has
recently been a notable increase in
the inquiry for the metal. "The
Iron Trade Review" this week notes
that "absence of any apparent press
ure to sell and a growing volume
of buying for peace time needs are
imparting more reassuring tone to
the iron and steel market" And,
further, the "most notable new busi-
ness has been for export. Steel
prices for export already are moving
away from the fixed war levels, and
sales in bars, sheets and other lines
have been made we'll above the
latter"
This is interesting, and perhaps
significant, but it may we'll be
that the tendency indicated will not
be maintained after the first press
ure has subsidized. Indeed, steel
producers are, for the most part, of
the opinion that prices on domestic
deliveries will work lower, though
by no means as low as they were
before the war. They contend that
the demand will increase so much
when prices have receded compara-
lively little as to stabilize the mar
ket for a long period The other
side of it is that even if the imme-
diate demand should be large
enough to keep all plants busy, there
is not much likelihood that orders,
Will continue for very long on such
scale. The steel-making capacity
of the country has increased by 40
or so per cent in the last four years,
and only enormous expansion in ex-
port business could possibly provide
enough business to employ the full
capacity, and the competition for
that business will be keener than
ever. 1t is we'll that the steel trade
is alive to the Importance of devel-
oping foreign business.
A decrease in the volume of cur
rent business would not be surpris-
ing, for the reason that business is
obviously in hesitating mood and
is inclined to move cautiously until
it becomes possible to see further
ahead. Bankers say that the de-
mand for new commercial credit has
been much less pressing ever since
the armistice was signed, and report
that the tendency is to restrict bor-
rowings to the necessities of the
moment. Few applications for new
ventures are being received.