New-York tribune., 1918-08-19
Instead of Victory Teutons
Face Demolition of
Eastern Dreams
Drive on Petrograd
May Be Final Effort
Embarrassing Russian Stu
alton Now Resolving It,
self FavorabIy for Allies
By Arthur S. Draper
Especial Cable 10 The Tr,bun>)
leIs b., The Tribune Association

ANALYSIS of the Russian situation, but
all reports Toint unmistakably to the
fsct that Germany is decidedly cmbar-
rassed BIZ events in the East. Whether
be Bolsheviki arc crumbling away,
whether Germany desires and can sue
ccssfully restore a monarchy. whether
teccgntion Of the Czccho- Slovaks was
A pise political mannuvre, arc qucs-
tons about which opinion is sharply dl-
yided and the public poorly informed.
Though much about Russia remains
obscure, it is worth while to examine
all available material.
First, the Bolshevists. If Lenine and
Trotzky are German tools. then the
their agents. Certainly the Bolshevists
have few friends among the German
press in either Junker or Socialist or
sans.
Three Allied expeditions, at Arch
angel, Murmansk and Vladivostok, have
begun to move against the Bolshevists.
The Czecho-Slovaks are fighting the
Boshevik in European Russia and in
Siberia Though these forces are
factors in undermining the Bolshevists,
even greater ones are at work.
Bolshcviki Missed Opportunity
Wher the Bolshevki took control of
the stricken country their chance for
success depended on their ability to i'm
prove the economic condition of the
masses. They have failed and the
situation has grown steadily worse.
Germany needed Russian grain, but she
got comparatively little, probably only
100000 tons. including that from the
Ukraine. This grain was obtained only
sitter threats and the bullying Of peas
ants. In return Germany is giving
nothing.
The Russian peasants are laying the
blame on tie Bolshevist leaders. In
Allied countries there is seldom y
voice raised in support OF the Boil
snevists. Their representatives have
been ignored or worse. With hardly
friend ard millions of enemies in both
the Central Powers and the Allied
countries, the Russian Bolshevsts are
now at bay. and there is little doubt
what their fate viii be unless the AL
lies blunder
Next, Germany. The est-Litovsk
reace negotiations marked the begin
ming Of Germany's end as a victorious
Oelligerent. There she committed
great diplomatic as we'll as moral
crime. The greed Of the Junker class
is responsible for Germany's position
to-day. With the possibility of victory
IN the West gone for all time, Ger
many sees her expectations in the Far
last far from realized. She fears to
weaken her Western lines and she is
extremely worried about developments
in the East. Probably Germany already
'ss made her decision.
German Drive on Petrograd
Ludendorff's withdrawal to shorter
INES will likely be followed by an
even greater retreat. By assuming the
offensive in the West Germany may
nope to release few divisions for
Work in the East Early fall will
probably see a German advance on
fe'rograd, but even though Germany
'usstrips them, the Allies leaders
question whether she can handle Rus
sla.
have reported previously the Ger
man scheme for the restoration of the
monarchy, but there are monumental
c'hcuities before her. If the Allies
we're embarrassed by the Russian de-
'sc'e Germany stands to-day in far
sofse position. Americas military con-
intuition has made good the loss Of
Auss'as strength, although four
months ago the situation was pro-
'oundly different.
Germany can no longer win in the
vest; her cnly chance Of getting some
.nihS out Of the war lies in the East.
as Allies must beat Germany in the
"ss' and prevent her winning in the
,'N"' There is grave danger in the
-s'' Tor both groups Of belhgerents,
wv happily the odds favor the Allies.
Allied Policy Helpful
resident Wilson has always made
y Plain that he desired to assist and
use Russia, and now with
''soie turn Of the tide in military
'na that policy s making rapid
,.sso"ay among our European Allies.
"e Russians know Germany desires to
mem and not to help them, and the
s 'ne Allies do to emphasize that
'N's tne quicker we shall win the war.
"ne'hsr viewed from a military Or a
s4's'y political standpoint, every arSu-
"@ supports the policy Of conccntra-
~" IN tn" West. Germany hoped 20
=. ' % Rusria, but she has been sorcly
p"appoin~a; she expected to recruit
r1'.'ahs. but instead she has the
n'-Siovak forces against her.
., me New Statesman" makes this
me third phase Of the Russian
.,''o'i'o will be marked by plague,
INNS and anarchy. From military
''s"point, however, i. wjll be more
"''aet"ry than its predeccssora. Be
iSi' the Russian front was
a''e thing lif you were in the Ger
sfmyJ and II fred at II either