The Washington herald., 1918-02-03
~ JOHN L. BALDERsroN.

eyuAtlAEJ
London. Jan. s.-Expert opinion
here. after months Of disagreement.
10 now unanimous that great
Germanic offensive against the al
lies on the Western front is to be
expected within a period that can
now be measured in weeks.
In this story am able to explain,
on the highest authority. why this
Teutonic attack must fail to
achieve the hesults that Germany
desires to make the allied people
think will be secured.
Germany 10 trying In advance TO
make the world believe that she can
obtain a decision and win the war
by knocking out the French and
British armies, or one of them, be-
fore the American divisions are
ready to take an important part in
the fighting. This il pure BLUM. An
analysis of the situation in the
West, obtained from one of the
most eminent military experts in
Europe and given below, makes
clear the irnpossibility of an enemy
victory OF this character.
Blow Against Morale.
What Germany is really planning by
the new offensive ID q blow primarily
against the morale Of the allies. She
expects to capture some ground and
perhaps force a local withdrawal, in
fiicting at the same time heavy cas-
ualties, and capturing thousands Of
prisoners and many guns. In other
words Hindenburg, finding that be-
cause OF the Russian collapse and the
- faoN No.
passed from Haig and Petain to him
self. proposes to win II he can
partial success like those of the al
lies on the Aisne and the Somme. at
Arras and in Flanders.
The enemy believes that the result
OF an initial advance in the coming
great offensive will greatly discourage
the allied peoples. make them fear
the total collapse of the allied armies.
or at least convince them that with
the Germans able to launch such heavy
blows in the fourth year OF the war
it is useless to hope for decisive al
lied victories in the field that will
smash I'D the Teuton armies. Won
Kuhlmann and his military associates
hope then to conclude a German peace
with a weary and disappointed en-
tente.
So It Is that soldiers look upon the
coming attack. They have not the
slightest fear but that they can deal
with 1t and smash it up. More than
that, they sincerely welcome it. There
would be grave disappointment in the
high command of England and France
il at the last moment the Germans
called the show of. But the soldiers,
knowing that the Germans know the
impossibilIty of q military decision
resulting from the coming operations,
and knowing also that the Germans
are not fools, refine the primarily poll
tical character OF the German aims
in the next campaign.
. Task Of the Allies.
1t IS not the business of the
allied generals to do propaganda
work. Their task is to meet and
defeat the German attack. But
before the attack begins. military
opinion is anxious that civilians in
all the allied countries, and especi-
ally in America, should understand
the position. The success Of the
German campaign depends upon ig-
norance of the civilian public about
military affairs.
What we have done. the Ger
mans can do" said Gen. Maurice,
director of military operations of
the imperial general stan, in dis
cussing the prospects with a group
of American correspondents.
What that remark means is this.
The enemy will concentrate guns
and men in a certain sector. By
the same methods that the BrIt-
ish and French used en- the Somme.
the Aisne and the Scarpe. he will
succeed. In all probability, If he
pays a high enough price. in bat
tering in certain defensive systems
and capturing a number OF prison.
ers and guns that loom large to the
civilian eye, accostumed only to
read OF attacks and captures by the
allies on the Western front.
Whether the attack succeeds or
fails depends upon the losses the
enemy suffers. proportionats to the
casualties he infiicts on Us and the
ground he gains, In the existing
conditions on the West front. as
is authoritatively explained below,
the Germans cannot hope to sue
ceed, as success Is measured by
military formula.
To Claim Victory.
But as soon as he attack is launched
and certain initial results follow, the
Germans will trumpet a great victory
all over the world Pessimists, croak-
ers and ignorant critics in the allied
countries will lift up their voices ac-
cording to their wont in time of trou-
BILE. That is what Won Kuhlmann
wants. Then is when German di-
plomacy will suavely step in with its
offer of accommodating terms in the
hope that people will say, I'VE can
never beat them. and we had better
agree and make peace while there
Is yet time to save our armies and
prevent q debacle."
1t Is thus conceivable that the Ger
man general stafr might launch scores
Of divisions into a great attack, suf-
fer an enormous defeat after the in
evitable Initia; advantages, and yet
win the war through the political ef-
fects obtained by the latter in the
very moment perhaps when the ex-
German armies were ready
to crack up. Happenings In Russia
and Italy have convinced soldiers OF
what politicians and newspaper men
knew at the beginning of the war,
that public opinion. for good and evil.
Is as powerful as cannon,
If, then. 1t were dignified for the
nigh command to address a message
TO the American people, that message
would be something like this:
Pay no attention to German claims
when the attack begins, but wait pa
nently and with confidence, and you
VIII not wait In vain. II we lose pris-
oners and guns. remember how many
prisoners and guns we took from the
Germans In the great offensives Of the
past. and remember that thasa diA "A.