The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1918-12-07
United States 11,476,OO0

By reason Of the prevailing high
price and the three preceding small
crops, farmers this year made every
effort to obtain a large yield. The
acreage planted to cotton being 3D.
073,000, close to the largest on rec
ord
Conditions on June 25th were most
promising, and the indicated yield
was 14,75O, 600 bales. Adverse wealth
er thereafter cut this promising; pros
pect to the estimate of 1l,476,00o
bales as shown in this report.
The quality of the lint is good and
in grade averages from middling to
strict middling of good body and
staple. No account Of linters is TAX
en- in the foregoing figures. APP
proximately 100000 tons Of seed will
be released for oil mill purposes, and
as the mills prepared for an exceed
ingly close cut due to the heavy de-
mand for explosive purposes prior to
the signing of the armistice, the pros
pect is that the close cut will be con-
tinued and that 1,150,000 bales OF
linters will result.
With the war practically over, and
mills swinging over from government
to civilian business, the many prob
lens of machinery replacement,
finance, labor and stable government
in foreign countries, the question OF
transportation, etc, estimates regard
ing consumption are nothing but
guess. It is however quite clear, that,
had the war continued throughout
this season, the consumption Of Amer
lean cotton, linters included, would
have fallen we'll below 12,00Q, 900
bales The question to be answered
therefore is, how rapidly can the
world. change from a war 10 peace
basis, can this be done. within the re-
manning eight months of the cotton
season? In our opinion consumption
can. hardly exceed that Of last year and
we put it at 12,200, 900, feeling, that
the increase in foreign will about off
set the loss of war orders and Inter
powder consumption, not offset by the
civilian demand upon American mills
The indicated carry over at the end
of the season July 31st, 1919, is there
for, 4sS4,oOo bales Gall sources).
Ordinarily an indicated carry over OF
this quantity Of cotton would result
in materially lower prices than, now
prevail 1t is, however, we'll recoghiz-
ed that the whole world is practically
ly naked and that everywhere there
exists an enormous need for cotton
goods of all kinds. At what price and
under what conditions this enormous
need will be translated into heavy
buying cannot be determined, until
the reconstruction period in foreign
mill centers and transportation from
America has reached a point where II
can begin to be supplied. 1t there
fore seems quite clear that our MILL
friends are in for a considerable pc
riod of great prosperity and 1t also
seems quite clear that our southern
friends will perforce of circumstances,
be compelled to carry the surplus un-
til the world is ready for it, and again
it is quite clear that the c1rcum-
stances Justify them in expecting
price much higher than would ordl-
narily obtain in view Of the indicated
carry over.
Our advice to them therefore is, to
recognize these conditions and to mar
ket their product gradually at price.
that will return them a fair profit
above the cost of production and the
cost of carrying AS world conditions
are restored to normal the burden
will gradually lessen.
The probable seasons supply and
consumption is as follows:
Visible Supply-July 31st, 1918:
In America 1,5S5,000
In Great Britain $4,000
On Continent $4,000
1,s32,OOO |
Mill Stocks-July 31st, 1918:
In America 1,151, 600
Eoraion 25O 600