The St. Charles herald. [volume] (Hahnville, La.) 1873-1993, 1918-02-02

mans Killed or totally Int"Id'II "ttu.
IN ATTEMPTING to determine what the
American armies will have VI against
them when. late next year, they nave
attracted 10 themselves the bulk or at
least the best OF the enemy forces,
the same rate of W&$ta%c may be as
Sumcd for the period between 10"
ana the end OF the campaign next year,
on say November /. On November l.
1918. If the average remains the same,
the destruction of German man power
proceeds at the rate of 10000 month,
the number Of Germans permanently
rut out of action will have increased
by .362 OtO since May l this year
Will Call Boys OF Seventeen.
On November /. 1918 however, the
class of 1920-tne German boys now
snvqntccn-but then between eighteen
| and ninetcen-will have been moor
| poratcd in the enemy armies. Ii may
be remarked in passing that the e1-
| perience Of all armies proves that TO
put boys of seventeen into training
| does not ray, from Il military point OF
view; they are not strong enGuSh 20
! stand It. II is perfectly safe. then, to
assume that Germany no matter how
;lr~pcr:te will not call out her class
Of 1870 before next wear. BY Novcin-
Der. 1918 these 100000 boys must be
added to the figures given above OF
the present strength OF the German
armies.
From the total present cornhatant
strength must be subtracted }GS.oOo
men, the total losses Germany must
exunct to suffer BY November, 1918, |
if she goes on with the war; to that
strength must be added 100000 for !
the closs of 1920. The German armies, |
then. will have declined approximately |
S6S. 900 men. on November l, 1913, from |
their strength on the first Of last May.
To Face 5,e7t 900 Men.
This loss of strength will fall upon
the combatunt forces alone. The l.
10000 old and unfit troops on duty
in the rear will remain as they We're
The 100000 fighting men possessed
nv Germany today will have dwindled
} TO 42320OO. Add TO these the l,I39,-
} 600 non -combatant troops and the ny
:. IRE of 5971 900 men is attained, the
total land strength of the German en-
: nira which it was said at the begin
r ming Of this story would be III the
4 fields at the opening OF the third. or
D American, phase of the war.
+ Now this is frankly an estimate
: which must allow for Il considerable
' margin of error. The figures Of the
e number of divisions in the fields are
e officially correct; the number OF Ger
man net casualties, accepting their
i own lists, is known to within small
l. fraction. but the chance or error
$ comes in the calculation Of reserve
troops.
u have shown these figures, however
to a high military authority who SAID,
=, 81 have gone over them carefully, anu
e 7 think YOU are safely within margin
al OF error of Is per cent; the only really
4 incalculable point at which you mad
= to guess was whether the rate OF cas-
IL ualties for the next year and nan
IN will he the same as 1t has been IN the
8 past"
IN 1t may be assumed that while the
% American armies during the year 1910
Is will doubtless be able to take their
ct fair share of the fighting, they VIII
~ not he in sufficient numbers to do most
o. of the work. as the British are doing
n II now until the end Of the year at
- least.
p American Phase in 1915.
Rut ut the beginning of the siXtf
summer campaign Of the war, IN llt
Va spring of 1910, there is no doubt 1ha
Is the american phase will have com
an menced in earnest. Neither the frenci
nor British armies will then be In
SIS nosition to carry out offensives on
De large scale. They will not have IN
'u- men. America will have them. IN
M American troops and the allies Will D.
'se faced. In the spring Of 1919, by 4.Ooo
IFS 600 German fighting men, not couh'
lfe ing the old and unfit in the rear.
w. All this may sound very improf
~ oh,e II is possible, and l think prot
ecu able. that the war will not go on [
'ou the bitter end. There Is grave dout
wv whether q campaign or 1918 VIII
lel fought to finish, whether the "Alhe
icon Dhase" of 1919 will ever arrive
SITS For the sake Of the world it IS to b
ap- devoutly hoped that it Will not.
zen But the point is that Germany WI
re- NOT surrender until she knows she
eh' beaten; and America must rememD'
ac- that Germany will be able to keep
'o' nO0 600 men for the campaign OF l9i
ION Germany Will not yield unless Amerl'
'iie begins now and trains armies capap
'ei! of smashing those 100000 men. n
any all the ships and money in the Wor
the will prevent this war from dragon
leu on TO an inglorious draw unless Anne
ing lean soldiers in sufficient numbers a
mes prepared to deal the finishing blow.
10 That is the moral Of these calcul
tions. and indeed it is the reason w
they are permitted publication.
~, Strength of Teuton Allies.
A general view of the present
,n resources of the central powers
S;r mands q consideration of the ror'
+ho of Germany's allies as well as OF
rolv fatherland itself.
a1 In addition to the 231 German di
100 sions, the Austrians have 50, the b