Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-01-06

e'iN ANi6S, otA i\hdSihiS fSHhSS,
prompt efforts to close the war, which
10 no longer merely a problem OF mill
tary factors.
But where will she strike? This is
the question which In filing the press
OF the world today. Will she strike In
rusalem, restore her dream Of a Berlin
Byxantium-Bagdad railway, regain her
old sailyport against British Egypt and
the Suez canal, which q Turkish Pales-
tine supplied? viii she attack the hete-
rogeneous force now defending Saloni-
ki and Offering the sole European OBJ
stacle to the completion OF Mftteleuro-
pa, walling of this vast Teutonic crea-
ton from the Aegean and from the
natural outlet Of the central empire at
the south?
VIII Germans Strike in Westf
Or will tho Germans make one more
colossal effort in the west? They failed
at the Marine, they failed at the User
and about Ypreg, they failed at YER
dun; and in these three attempts they
had all the advantages that numbers.
preparation, munitions could give them
Can they hope to succeed now? Is 1t
worth the sacrifice. recognising that II
they try and fail they will come to the
end OF the year. facing victorious Toes
reserve in the following campaign,
when the United States is at last
ready?
The Germans have announced their
west. They have heralded 1t with brass
bands and . blare Of trumpets; but their
attack upon verdun, upon Russia. in
April. 1915: upon Italy q few weeks
ago-all these were surprises 80 Tar as
German publicity was concerned. IL
Germany contemplated an attack in
the west. would she talk about 1t. CIV
ing her foes due warning. the chance
to make the last preparation and search
their own fronts yet once more Tor
some weak point?
1t seems to me, and this is the con-
c1usion I find in most OF the European
journals. that a German offensive in
inconceivable; it may come; it will come
II the Germans are actually In pos
session of Information. naturally lack
ing in our own case, which would Ieao
them to believe that either the Brit
down In morale, as were the Italians
before the recent disaster; but, accept
ing the possibility, 1t remains plain that
the great weight Of chance is against
such q venture.
West Only Decisive Field.
A western offensive can come. it
seems to me, only IL the German stu
ation-I mean economic. not military
is SO desperate that the Germans feel
that they must risk everything on one
more bid for a quick decision. In
that case they win attack in the west.
because nowhere else can DECISION be
had. A complete victory in Italy. even
a victory which brought Italy to make
a separate peace. would not be decisive
United States are concerned. Much
less would complete success at Salo-
Mkt or about Bagdad win the war. or
even compel peace on terms when
profit for her great sacrifices in men
and treasure. Victory in the war. il 1t
is to come on the field Of battle. must
come somewhere between the North
feels that she must risk all on one
more bid for a decision under condi-
tions far less advantageous than on
the other occasions she will attack
in the west and we shall see eth. the
within the next two or three months.
On the other hand. IL Germany
hopes simply to last the war out, IL
she hopes to win 1t as Frederick the
Great won his most terrible struggle.
by wearing out his foes. as Louis
XIV saved his territory in the war
Of the Spanish succession she is most
likely to seek to break the nerve of
her opponents by aiming at victories
in indecisive fields. which. despite the
fact that they are minor, will impress
the world. and because of local cir
cumstances can be won with mini
mum of cost to herself Such an oper-
alton was the attack upon Runania a
year ago. The recent italian affair is
an equally good illustration of this
strategy.
II Sa1oniki Is Chosen Point.
II Germany desires to take saloniki, I
think the majority of allied military
critics are of the opinion that she could
do 1t alta price. She has the interior
lines Of communication. An attack upon
system to a very great strain; 1t would
compel a further shift of French and
British troops to the near east, certain
to be opposed bitterly in both nations
and 1t would thus weaken the western
front. which remains the decisive front.
The Germans could also rely upon Bull
garian troops for the main effort. For
Bulgaria Saloniki is the prize that has
been sought ever since Bulgaria began
to have great aspirations.
Germany would supply the guns. the
generalship few chosen troops. per-
haps no more than those Below is lead
units might be added, now that Austria
has been saved from immediate ankle
ties. Such an attack would be directed
against very strange allied army. |
made up of Italians. Serbs. Greeks, Rus
SLAMS, British, French and contingents
drawn from British and French colonies,
These forces hold a wide front, viii,
few good lines of COM
behind them, and the peo-
pie of the districts they occupy are in
part hostile, as is q considerable eIe-
ment in all OF Greece.
Now. conceive what would be the effect
Of sudden and successful push early in |
close TO Saloniki. II It did not immediately
win the town. At the outset OF a new
campaign the allies would suffer moral |
defeat. They would have promptly to de- /
to the near east at q moment when the |