The Washington times., 1918-02-10

lem.
That problem lies upon the Italian
and French fronts. and what we have
to consider is the effect upon those
fronts OF Russia's having ceased to
night for now a full year. What are
the rough figures OF the enemy's Sit
uation In this regard? They are as
follows:
J The Austrian forces (which means,
| of course, all the various groups of
peoples, Magyar, Slav, Roumanian,
German, subject to the Hapsburg
monarchies and cofscripted willingly
or unwillingly) are not two-thirds,
but are more than one-half, as large
as the German forces. The Germans,
roughly, are somewhat over 100000
strong: in the field they are about
5000, 900. or the Austro-HungafiaI
forces actually fighting, rather more
than half are at present upon the Ital-
| Ian front, rather less than half fac.
ing the Roumanians and the Russians.
II one counted by units the eastern
forces facing Russia would be the
larger, but the divisions In the cast
have been "milked" to rs-enforcs
those in the. west.
How German Forces
Are Disposed.
hG SCtAha - zig ASAAo Va
what we have to consider. OF its s.
900 900 men upon the two fronts, the
general figure to retain is that two
thirds are upon the west and one
third upon the east, SO far as num-
bers of divisions alone are concerned
There are about 160 German divisions
on the west front (the most precise
and recent estimate, which cannot, OF
fn ha a~ars1xy
rate, is 1870. There are the eQuiva-
lent Of eighty German divisions on
the east front (seventy-nine numbered
divisions and certain extras).
A superficial and false conclusion
would be that, since what was once
the Russian army may now be count.
ed out, the German forces upon the
west can be REINFORCED during 1918
by the extra so per cent from the
east. Such q view would be greatly
exaggerated one, ID the following
reasons:
THE Russian front has now for
nearly twelve months been used as a
sort of rest camp. Units which could
not be used in the furnace OF the
west are sent there to do the work of
police, which is all that is required.
At least a quarter Of the German d.
NlblOH6 IN lHe CdGl hIo AdIN" GAl Va
the kind which will never be used in
active service against the French,
British or Americans. Another por-
tion Cfiuctuating but always consid-
erable) is made up OF divisions which
have been hammered on the west
front and sent to the east where
there IL no hghting, to recover. At
any one moment these resting" di-
visions are out of calculation, so far
as reinforcement OF the western line
Is concerned.
2-Re-enforcement of material from
east to west, though IL is considerable,
cannot be upon anything like the
scale OF one-third TO two-thirds. II
Is not generally appreciated, for in
stance, that in Aeroplanes the Ger
mans were using more than ten in
the west to one in the east. The pro-
portion OF heavy artillery, again, Is
very much less upon the east than
upon the west.
3-There have already been with
drawn from the east in the course
OF the last year. and particularly
since the final collapse OF Russia in
the summer before Tarnopol, a con-
siderable, though unknown, proper
tion OF the younger and more ytgor-
Gus elements. Apart from the move
ments of divisions as q whole, there
has been a continuous Withdrawing
OF younger men from the east to the
west. New battalions were continu-
ally being formed OF selected men
and sent westward-the transfer TAX
ing, as a rule, about twelve days.
4-However thin you make your
curtain OF men who are merely watch
ing a doubtful situation, you cannot
- FnI
The Germans and Austrians between
line which in all it's sinuosities is lit
tie short OF a thousand miles in
length. They have had perhaps one
man to the yard for this duty, count
ing everything within the zone OF the
armies. They might-it is conceiv-
able-halve the number, and much
more than halve its value, by leaving
for this minimum only the older or
fatigued portions OF their forces.
Limit of Reduction
OF Eastern Forces.
The east front includes great
spaces OF marsh and lake regions,
which permit OF a very thin observe
ing line. But there is q limit to its
reduction. II is generally conceded
that IL the German empire can ulti-
mately draw upon a further half mil
lion men for the west and add anoth-
er 80 per cent OF the quarter million
OF Austro-Hungarians (supposing that
present political conditions Stand), II
is a maximum.
At the present reduced rate Of a
German division the equivalent OF at
the most fifty such divisions OF drst
class men might be drawn upon.
A little sample OF the way the
enemy has used this relief of pres
sure on the eastern front may be
Of interest. Taking ten selected days
whereof we now have full inforna-
tion Cabout eight weeks aKo), we
find four German divisions coming
from the east to the west: the Path |
LIST, and 10Tth reserve divisions and /!
one active division, the First. We
find in the same short period the |
Landwehr sent back to |
eastern front after a comparatively |
short period in the west, and probably |
a second reserve division going back |
a few days later.
The whole position, therefore, may
be compared TO a man using I57
pieces OF standardized machinery only
by the continual employment OF which |
can he prevent the breakdown OF |
some plan. Each Of these pieces Of |
when fully occupied,
wears out very rapidly and has to be /
uyffbdFaUn for FRnaIr n;a..