Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1918-04-20
CROP OUTLOOK FACTOR
IN COTTON'S SLUMP
Decrease in Exports Because
of Army Requisitions Also
Helped
100000 BALES LIKELY

Belief that this years cotton planting
viii result m an increase Of approx
matoIy 2.5Oo.Ooo bales over the last
crop. coupled with the loss Of export
trade through the Governments decision
To commander shipping for the eNclu-
-i,c use of the army is held hy the cot
tom trade here TO account for tie recent
brea, in prices
Merchants who nave followed the war
situation since April I. when the first
noticeable crack appeared in the mar
ket see marked slowing ~ hence
forth I'm exports. if not a complete ces-
Sation Of this business. Added to this,
favorable weather reports, including
long -lOol4"d-for rainfall over virtually
the entire cotton belt 40 taken TO In.
dicatc that barring some unseen factor
this years crop should run AT least H.
$4,000 bales, without taking into con-
sidcration hold-oNer stocks of close TO
10000 bales.
II Is ON the assumption Of large free
stocks later TO come out that the southern
holders are willing 10 rcvamp their ideas
on holding for forty-Cent cotton, accord
ing t. Interests here Macy brokers are
inclined to believe the market will steady
for while. at least, due to strong
underlying conditions in the spinning
and manufacturing fields. Even by
those who believe the bottom has been
reached il Is admitted there is still much
speculation i'm respect 70 how the draft
is going 10 affect the labor market
later on.
In comparison with the way the mar
kpt tumblcd beginning April A. it is
pointed out that a recovery already has
set n As evidencing this situation,
May contracts on the New York market
dropped from &I.5Oc ON April 4 to 27.95c
April lG. a tumble Of $32.75 a bale. The
swing ia July contracts meanwhile waS
from 33.SOc - 2740C g loss of S3l.2O.
Yesterday May cotton c2ened at 2s.40c
ana closed at 2S.t1c, a net gain Of SO
points above the low. and July opened at
27.9Oc, closing at cS.35c, a net gain Of
20 points.
The y. r. Sloan Company. one Of the
representative cotton merchants here, I'm
commenting upon the situation yester-
: day said:
The cotton market passed through
another trying period somewhat similar
TO the panic Of February. 1917. when
cotton dropped five cents per pound upon
Germauy's announcement of the C-bost
+ blockade. This time she war news was
again responsible for much Of the re-
cent decline. which extended over $40
per bale from the highest point reached
this season.
"Other contributing reasons We're that
the outlook for the new crop was con-
siderably better by reason Of the drought
in the Southwest being broken, where
the dry weather for the last six or eight
months has been very serious. More
over, the demand for shipping space
abroad for war purposes has made il
very difficult indeed to export cotton sX-
cept in a very limited manner, which
has led to some accumulation Of stocks
in this country at a time when the mills
are fairly well bought up and for this
reason not eager buyers.
The decline has probably gone toe
far and the market may recover. as il
did last year the entire loss sustained
during this panic, but until the German
menace on the west front is removed
the market is likely to be susceptible
to violent price changes