Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-10-13
Negotiated Peace Dangers.

Negotiated Peace Dangers.
Negotiated peace is and will remain
possible, If we are willing to make it,
at any moment now. Between the
present hour and the opening of the
next campaign the German terms Will
grow more and more reasonable. The
German maneuver to catch the weak
the blind, the weary of the enemy ma
lions. to break the home front as it
was broken in 1917, will be repeated.
But the German is not likely to accept
the only terms which he can obtain,
because he is almost certain to con-
clude that he would do better to risk
all the consequences of another cam.
paign rather than accept terms which
will not have become materially
harsher if he fights and loses next
if he fights and postpones a military
decision.
This much, at least. is to be said and
must be said: 1t would be the height
of folly to make any calculation OF
any sort based upon the assumption
that this year will see the end OF the
struggle. Two evils would instantly
flow from such q calculation. lnsen,
sibly but inevitably war effort would
slacken, and equally inevitably disap-
nointment would weaken our moral
strength next year. By each of these
weaknesses the enemy would profit:
by both he might succeed in escaping
from the defeat which must come II
the war is to be ended properly.
Reading history one may see that
bad as is the Germans present pos
ture, nations have escaped from
worse, as did Prussia in the seven
years war. That victory which, now
assured, is only assured If we in
and strengthen rather than weaken
our determination. Two years ago
we were just as sure of immediate
victory as now and with almost as
sound reason. Then the German
peace offensive surprised and routed
in preparation and there is the same
peril.
Constant victory, the fnterminable
reports Of the forecasts of captured
Germans. the large scale map. the
catalogue Of captured positions. all
within limits useful, but DANGEROUS
when it gives rise to unbounded con-
fidence in a speedy and complete col
lapse of the enemy. 1t took the Leip-
zig campaign Of 1913, the Marine cam
paign Of 1914 and the Waterloo cam
Napoleonic peril and to destroy the
Napo1eonic legend. II we have won
the Leipzig campaign this summer We
have done nothing more. We have
not advanced a foot in Germany; We
are still demanding that the German
expect to do. not what we have done
and not what he believes we can do.
Our victory is still limited. our terms
absolute.
In sum, on the military side no
allied success up to the present hour
evidence that the German army can
be decisively beaten this year or that
it will surrender rather than bear the
cost in blood of another campaign.
On the political side the peace con-
ditions, which we are agreed must be
the Germans may not fmDrobably pre-
fer to risk all the sacrifices and bur-
dens of another year in the hope Of
escaping our present terms, satisfied
that even il they lose that campaign
they can hardly face much sitter
terms. On the moral side we know
little, but two years ago, when we
were counting upon a moral collapse
of the German. our own morale broke
down in Russia and Italy and was
severely shaken in France and in
Britain as a result of the German
peace offensive.
Both Sides Fail to Understand.
All through this war there has been
nothing more striking than the utter
failure Of the people of the two con-
tending groups to grasp in any degree
the actual state of mind of the enemy
We have been wrong just as often as
the German. We have again and
again been convinced that German
masses were eager for a surrender
peace, we have been convinced that
a starving Germany was on the point
of throwing of it's rulers and en-
bracing democracy and peace, and at
the critical moment We have found
that we had calculated on our hopes
rather than with regard to the facts.
Today the German people may be
willing to surrender, they may compel
their generals and their statesmen to
abandon the struggle and pay the
price Of surrender. They may. on the
other hand. be in the mood of France
after Sedan, when the people rose to
the defense of the nation. Until the
German army is decisively beaten we
shall not be assured Of peace. and the
German army is much further from