New-York tribune., 1918-02-03
Breach Between
Berlin and Vienna
Most Hopeful
Sign for
Allies
Copyright 1sls-The Tribune Associations

her territory by her enemies-and tho
Italian claim has been measurably weak
ened by recent Italian disasters. If Aus
tria is to continue the war it must be
solely for German ends. Granted that
her statesmen are willing, will they re-
main so? And will her people for long
endure their present agonies?
1t seems hardly likely. Rather it is to
be expected that there will be a slow but
sure drifting apart of German and Aus
trian policies if the War Party remains in
control in Berlin. Austria has regained
her independence, in fact, by deliverance
from peril. She is bound in her own in
terest to disagree more and more with
German insistence on prolongation of
the conflict. In the end nothing is more
probable than that there will be a real
breach between Vienna and Berlin over
the question Of the war if Berlin pursues
its present course.
But such breach would transform the
whole war situation. 1t would DESTROY
Mitteleuropa,: because it would end the
physical contact of Germany with the
Near East. 1t would leave Germany iso-
lated in the presence of her great foes,
France, Britain and the United States,
and it would terminate all possible chance
OF any great gain for Germany in the
war, except at the expense of Russia. 1t
would mean that Turkey, and even Bul-
garla, would have to make terms with the
sea powers and all of the larger ambi-
tlons Of Germany would be DESTROYED.
This is the great fact in the Austrian
situation, it seems to me. Russian events
and recent campaigns have freed Austria
from the German yoke. She can get along
by herself. She needs no German help.
The alliance with Germany becomes now
a clear liability; there is no great Aus
trian issue at stake save so far as Italy
is concerned, and with this Austria has
the resources to deal, holding Italian ter
ritory as she does. Clearer and clearer
every day becomes the evidence that the
Austrian people demand peace. And when
you have national interest and domestic
desire moving along similar lines neither
sentimental nor moral obligations car
long restrain the statesmen of nation
from taking the obvious course
We are fighting against the German
conception of world empire, which Ger
many has sought to achieve by force and
violence. We mnst fight until all the con-
quered races are freed-Belgian, French,
Polish, Serb, Italian, Rumanian. But the
cornerstone of the whole German edifice
is the German domination of Austrian
policy, and if the cornerstone crumbles the
! edifce is doomed And we shall not ex-
aggerate the present condition if we as
? sert that this stone is crumbling We may
{ expect too much and expect it too soon,
4 but in the larger view it is safe to expect
very much.
Hope for the Allies
To me the Austrian events seem the
most hopeful signs for the Allied cause
which have been discoverable since the
Russian collapse. The loss of Austria
would be far more terrible for Germany
than the collapse Of Russia was for the
Allies, since there is no United States to
replace Austria on the German side And
: Austria will, it seems inevitable, be lost
as an active participant in the war IL
Germany continues the struggle for selfish
ends for many months more. Austria
> will not join the Allies she will not close
= her frontiers to Germany; she will supply
her with what she can of guns and muni-
i tons; but she will not follow her leader
ship, nor obey her commands indefinitely.
Therefore, if Germany hopes to gain
.. her ends she must gain them with little
delay; she must crush her Western foes
before the Austrian affair gives them
> comfort and discourages her own people.
Time has again turned against the Ger
man, it seems to me, and time has been
such tickle friend all through the war
Hence l look for an accele~ation of the
pace of German preparation for attack on
the West front and an early opening Of
: the campaign of 1918. You can look back
= TO the Napoleonic period and see, when his
: fortunes began to darken, row one after
another of his allies departed, not all will
:, ingly, many with regrets, but all because
= the safety and interest Of their own ma
tions required it.
Austrian interests are no longer Ger
man. German control of Austria IS no
s longer assured by Austrian dangers
!, These two things are certain. Add to
e this the growing insistence of all reports
: that the Austrian populace is stirring. and
5, it seems to me you have one of the most
a important and significant developments OF
). the war, perhaps the most important. since
e Russia went into convulson. That con
y vulsion nearly wrecked the Allied cause
Y WIN the collapse Of Austria or the decor