Evening star., 1918-05-19

And unless all Signs Idll tne 1eTrIidi
will shortly resume his principal effort
Writing on Sunday. May II. it seems to
me that the indications point toward
resumption Of German effort in the south
within a brief time. probably before this
article is printed. More than this, il
seems to me that there is reason for
uttering a word Of warning against the
extreme optimism which is becoming all
too common on all sides at the present
hour
Huns Not Beaten; Just Checked.
Let us face the essential truth that the
German has been checked, not beaten
that he possesses the resources IN men
in guns and in munitions for another
blow, not more terrible than that launch
ed on March 21. but certainly only a
little less dangerous. 1t is not true, as
Is too generally believed now, that the
German was decisively blocked in the
first days of April. What happened was
that he outran his guns. his munitions
and his supplies at the precise momeh,
when his enemies were able to close tne
gap in front of him and to put into
play their reserves
man inflicted a terrible loss upon the
| British foe. One British army; the o. atn
was in large measure destroyed IN Uni.
fighting and in the following struggle a.
the north the British, accepting the fig,
| ures of the British representatives II
Washington, lost 250,000 men. Of tins
number the German has claimed lOO,
| 900 as prisoners. He captured hundreds
of guns, an enormous booty OF wal ma ma
terial. And for this victory. north ane
south, he paid, at most. 35e. 900 casuai
ties. while in addition to British losses
the French must have lost well oVe'
| 1000, perhaps as high as 10000.
@rr16
the Germans sacrificed their best: the
British lost equally from their nnes,
divisions. If the forces Of the two
groups of contestants were approx
mately equal before the attack. there
has been no change yet. either IN
the allies a new advantage. On the
contrary, the eventual German loss
will certainly be less than that OF the
allies, because the retreating British
left a large fraction of their wounded
to the enemy, and these will not re-
turn to the line when At again. while
the German wounded were cared for
by their own comrades and will be
available later.
Allies in Peril in April.
We see clearly that had the Ger
mans not been pinned down in the
first days of April they would have
won a tremendous and perhaps de-
cisiye yictory. We recognize the
greatness of the peril that existed
in the first days after the 5th British
Army had been beaten and gap had
opened between British and French
armies. We are going to face another
attack at no distant date.
In his attack in the south. in P1cardy
the German used one or two divi-
sions less than an even hundred. In
the north around forty divisions have
been identified. He has, then, rather
more than sixty divisions which have
not. vet BEEN put in, although con-
siderable fraction of the sixty are
certainly inferior troops. He has.
the east. some of which can be used
IN the west this year. Col. Repington.
I believe, calculates that before the
campaign is over the German will
use 22O divisions on the west front.
OF the 140 divisions already used
something like third. perhaps fifty.
cannot be expected to appear for several
weeks yet, some of them not for six
weeks or more. But others have suffer-
ed rela lively little, and, having had their
wastage replaced from the depots. are
certainly ready to go over when the
next zero hour comes When the at
tack began on March 81 the Naiser' 8
generals employed forty divisions i'm
mediately in the first shock and at least
twenty more in TIE next two days. BY
the second Sunday the French had sig
nailed not less than eighty-two divisions,
and in the subsequent attack upon Ar
ras in tbe first days of April the total
rose rapidly to the high water mark of
ninety-seven.
Germans Can Strike Again.