New-York tribune., 1918-01-20
Will Not Commence
Drive Until Spring
France the
Probable Oh
jective
By FRANK H. SIMONDS
Author Of The World War; "rhey Shall
Not Pass


situation there has been a marked change
in the view of military men the world
over Then there was very general skep
tcism as to the report that Germany was
preparing a new offensive in the West.
Nov, with very few exceptions, all mill
tary observers. Allied and enemy, agree
that Germany is presently to renew her
effort to obtain a decision in the West:
that to the three great offensives--that
wrecked at the Marine, that blocked at
Ypres and the User, and that smashed
before Verdun-there is to be added a
fourth, intended, like the preceding as
sauts to obtain decision, to win the war.
When and Where?
Today the discussion is no longer
whether Germany will attack Or not, but
about the when and the where of her at
tack. We may trace the military develop
ment by the political. Germany's second
great peace offensive, SO far as the West
ern nations are concerned, has failed. So
also has the attempt to put Italy out of
the war; For the time being Italy stands
firm; the Austro- German advance in Vene-
tia has been halted after great but by no
means decisive successes. Only in Russia
has Germany been wholly successful: the
Slav state, despite all it's protests, despite
all the threats Of the Bolsheviki, can not
and Will not become military factor
again for the current year and will prob
ably sign separate peace within few
weeks.
Peace Sentiment Vanished
At the outset Of the Brest-Litovsk nego
tiations the Germans sought to use the
Bolsheviki as their agents in bringing all
the Allies to a negotiated peace. They
failed because the Bolsheviki stood firm
just long enough to disclose that under
the guise Of mo annexations and no in
IDENTITIES" Germany was planning to seize
100000 square miles of Russian territory
and 20,00O,OOO of people, When these
facts were disclosed Lloyd George and
President Wilson took prompt advantage
Of the diplomatic opportunity and set
forth to their own publics the terms of
the Allies, which the British, French and
American publics were able at once to
contrast with the German terms. The re-
suit was an immediate change in the SEN
tment of the three Allied nations and their
determination to continue the war. Lib
eral elements in all three nations, which
had been deluded by the language used by
the Germans and had begun to believe
Germany had at last change her war aims
and was ready to make an honest peace,
saw that they had been tricked, and with
The perception the peace sentiment in
Allied countries disappeared.
for right to a rlnISh
Meantime in Germany similar change
had taken place. In the summer, when
German prospects were far from brilliant,
there had been an unmistakable agitation
tor peace which should be based upon
the surrender of the more extreme Of Ger
man aims But with the collapse of Rus
sla and the defeat of Italy the extremists
reganed the supremacy; the war party,
which seeks great annexations and huge
'ndemnities, regained its control. Hungry
as she is, disillusioned as the millions of
German people are, they are still suffi-
GENTLY encouraged by the change in the
appearance Of things to be willing to risk
another campaign, with the hope that it
Will give them the victory which would
save Germany by imposing huge indemni-
Ties upon the enemy and acquiring for
Hermany new area of industrial expan-
sion.
The consequences of these two revolu-
lions in public sentiment are manifest.