Gilpin observer., 1918-01-17
Victory Possible Only If United
States Puts Everything
Into Fight.
ADMITTED IN HIGH QUARTERS
Authorities Agree That Combined
Might of Entente Allies Is Not
Sufficient to Defeat the
Enemy.
BY JOHN LLOYD BALDERsToN.

per Syndicate.)
LondOn.-UnleSs the American peo-
pie put their backs into this war, the
German autocracy will not be beaten.
The combined might of Great Britain,
France, Russia and Italy is not suffi-
cient to defeat the enemy or even to
take from him all of his gains and re-
establish the balance of power as it ex-
listed in 1914. Whether the war is to be
won, or is to end in draw and vir-
tual German victory, is n problem the
answer to which must be sought in the
United States.
All this is privately admitted in high
quarters. After all the bloody sacri-
fees, the boastings and the claims that
have been INDUCED in during the last
three years, these things cannot be
openly stated to the peoples of the en-
tente by their statesmen. But they
ought to be known to Americans.
When American officials utter solemn
warnings to the public, they are not in
dulging in oratory exaggerated for the
purpose of encouraging recruiting or
arousing public sentiment; they are
telling the sober truth. or part of 1t,
as communicated by the representa-
tives Of the allies.
The writer cannot be accused of sud
denly taking up pessimistic attitude
to increase the war efforts of his coun-
trymen. For more than two years /
have presented dispasslonate views of
the war situation, discounting the
claims of both sides and repeatedly
<Nf 70
victory either for Germany or the en-
tente unless some new factors entered
into the situation.
Two New Factors.
Two new factors have appeared, the
submarine anarchy and the belliger-
ency of the United States.
The submarine is biting deep into the
economic life of the world 1t presents
Germany with chance, not apparent
before, to win the war outright and
dictate terms Of peace to PROSTATE enc
mics even more ruthless than those
which were to have been enforced af-
ter the, capture Of Paris in September,
1914.
The United States Is potential
force; not, like the submarine, an ac-
tual power at the present moment. If
the United States did nothing, Ger
many would win the war. If the Unit
ed States supplied money, and some
ships and some food, the war might
end in draw, Americas effort neutral
izing the submarine and restoring the
deadlock as 1t existed before last Feb
ruary. If, and only If, the United States
puts everything into the fight with all
possible speed. her Intervention will
outweigh the submarine In the balance
and win the war.
1t is only by visualizing the world
situation as whole, examined In the
light of reason and not in the rosy
hues of patriotism or sentiment, that
the nature of the task can be made
clear. To do this the investigator
must know something about the mill
tary resources of the two alliances,
how many troops they have in the field
and what reserves are backing up the
combatants, and he must know as well
the figures of lost tonnage, the rate at
which ships sunk are being replaced,
and the facts about the food prospects.
Then, by co-relating the factors mill
tary economic and naval, and not for
getting the moral factors, he can form
some judgment as to the prospects of
the war. The writer Is not in the con-
fidence of any high commands; but the
broad truths about the armies, the sub
marines, and the food shortage are
well known in informed circles, even
though they cannot be discussed In the
press. In n newspaper dispatch gener,
l. 10 I,,,f 1,A fa
upon which they are based cannot be
put forward. can only say that all
the statements In this story rest upon
\yhat believe to be accurate informa-
IN.
ength Of War Important Question.
The most important question for
hericans Mt present is the length of
le war, because upon this point de-
lends the question of effective Ameri-
Vtan cooperation. There Is very little
possibility that Germany can be
beaten in the field in decisive fashion
within two years. This is an opinion
widespread among military men, to
which almost any man conversant with
the approximate field strength of both
alliances would heartily subscribe.
To say this is not to say that the
war will last two years. If the United
States will promptly raise and equip an
army of millions, It will be possible to
put great numbers of troops on the
western front next spring and summer,
and to have an army in Europe mt the
beginning of the sixth campaigning sea-
son. in 1919, capable Of winning the
war. This being true. the Germans
may capitulate before that time; but
they will only do so II convinced that
America is willing and able to strike
The final blow.
on the other hand, the entente can
not last through the two years which