The Washington herald., 1918-02-03

divisions? Such an estimate ysrges
on absurdity. 1t would verge on
absurdity did a German division
mean on the average now what II
meant a year ago. But notoriously
the term now means less. And.
owing to the change referred to.
the rate of wastage that has to be
faced is higher.
Must Meet wastags.
The second effect Is yet more i'm
portant than the first. 1t is that be-
fore the military breakdown Of Rus
sia these battles on the West had all
the while been discounting such relief
as the enemy might obtain by-a Rus
sian breakdown. He had to meet
troops on the East front, and by
absorbing in anticipation annual
classes OF young recruits. Since,
however. the number OF his divisions
broken in the Western battles was
large. transfers from Russia were the
| mainstay.
"The effect of Russia's participa-
ton in the war remains, and II has
been a mighty effect, for the epemy's
forces and his staying power have
| alike been hugely reduced in conse-
quence. 1t was that effect, already
chiefly brought about by the end of
1916, which rendered the division Of
forces between the two fronts in
creasingly burdensome. Every draft
on the East front made during 1917 to
supply the wastage on the West de-
creased whatever difference might be
| made in the West by Russia ceasing
to be a belligerent. That fact in the
present situation Is one of great
| weight. 1t by no means follows that
because Germany and Austria were
outmatched so long as Russia re-
| mained in the war. they not only now
cease to be outmatched. but become
| superior. The benefits arising from a
cessation of hostilities in Russia had
been for the most part eaten up in
advance in the battles in the West.
The third effect of last years
Western battles illustrates the sec
ond. Ever since the end of 1915, II
not earlier. it became the enemy's
hope on the West to separate the
| allied armies by forcing q retirement
of the French line between Noyon and
the Meuse. This was one cause of
the hurry to push the Russian cam
pdlSH W q COIlCIuSfOu IN tUdl IcdIs IL
was also in part the cause of the at
| tack upon Verdun. Further, II was
the cause of the prolonged and bloody
struggle to recover the Aisne Ridge.
SIav Fiasco Discounted.
"All the while a cessation Of hos
tilities in Russia was being reckoned
| upon as an Imminent possibility. Not
! only has the chance OF exploiting in
| that way the suspension Of operations
| in Russia been discounted by the using
up of forces in the meantime; 1t has
been not less discounted by the taking
| Of the German bulwarks which were
at once to have covered the attempt
and formed its jumping-off positions.
Verdun constituted the one serious
obstacle in the way; Verdun had to be
got out the way. Verdun, however,
remains an obstacle, and the Cham
payne Ridge and the Aisne Ridge
have been added to it.
Even if there were. owing to events
| in Russia, a much more substantial
addition to German strength on the
West than there has been, or can
be, what earthly possibility of success
has scheme for pressing back the
French line when our allies have won
and hold the wall And no other means
/ lie open to the enemy Of forcing a de-
cision on the West. To push back the
British front would not achieve q de-
cision. even If to push back the British
front were within his power. He could
not do this at the end of 1914 and the
beginning OF 1915 when he had great
superiority in artillery. and when the
British front was as thin as an egg
shell. II he could not do It then, he
cannot do it now.
"The third effect, therefore, OF the
battles of the pastsyear has been to
render the allied front on the West
unbreakable by any forces the enemy
can throw against it. and to put it
beyond his capability to force a de-
cision in any event.
''1t has been said that the next two
or three months will for the allies
be critical, but in no case can they
be as critical as the interval between
the outbreak of war and the compile
tion of the British preparations. That
was the actual crisis. for Germany
was then much stronger. If that crisis
was weathered. there Is no reason on
the face OF things why the present
so-called crisis, a very minor affair
by comparison, should be viewed with
apprehension. Nothing whatever Is to
be gained by distorting the truth"
From, Marie Afinp Iab,, ana -xri,to,,