New-York tribune., 1918-07-28

rhe fourth year of the World War
for the Western nations, the gloomiest
Of the whole struggle, is ending under
conditions which are more favorable
and give more real cause for optimism
than any that have existed in the past
twelve months. We are entering the
fifth year of the contest not with any
prospect of peace now or even within
the period of another year, but under
circumstances strikingly recalling the
situation after the First Battle of the
Marine. The second, and we may be-
lieve the final, blow of Germany has
been parried, if not broken. If we have
not brought the new Napoleonic edifice
to the ruin of a Waterloo, there are
signs that the recent defeat may prove
in some degree suggestive of Leipsic.
The story of the fourth year Of the
struggle is measured by two major
events: the collapse Of Russia and the
coming of the United States. When
the year opened we were, all of US, still
hoping against hope that the Russian OF
erations in Galicia might prove the first
sign of renaissance of Russian mill
tary power, and that Russian republic
might repeat the achievement of the
first French Republic and, in defending
the liberty of the Slav world, contribute
nightly to the salvation of Western CIV
iiization.
But before the campaign had come
to an end Russia had ceased to be
military factor; treason and madness
had done their work and henceforth the
disintegration within was to be rapid; !;
while German troops, released from the
East, we're to carry peril to the very edge
of Paris and threaten Sir Douglas Haigs
mighty force with the fate which had
been prescribed for the "contemptible
little army" of Field Marshal Sir John
French in the opening days of the war.
The world, particularly the Allied
world, was slow in perceiving what were
to be the consequences of the Russian
collapse. When the full German storm
broke, in March Of the present year, it
took the Allies by surprise and brought
an unreadv coalition within measurable
distance of one of the great disasters
of human history. But when the March
blow had fallen and the extent Of the
danger was perceived, then the war be-
came race between America and Ger
many, a race between our young troops,
hurried across a submarine infested
ocean, and the last flower of German
veterans thrown upon the Allied lines
in offensive after offensive, seeking a
decision before America came.
AS early as June of 1917, when Nj
veles Aisne offensive failed, it became
clear that unless America came to the
rescue the war would be lost to our
allies and Germany would win on the
Continent something recalling Napo-
Icons success against Austria in 1905.
Prussia in 1906 and against Russia in
1907. But what was not perceived at
that time was that it was going to be
narrow question whether France, Brit
ain and Italy could hold against our
coming, and, blind to the real facts, our
allies continued to ask of US material and
money rather than men, until the bitter
whole situation.
The Russian Revolution and the re-
sultinc anarchy. which led to the de-
noralization of the Russian army, in
racJ produced a situation in which
France and Britain could not win the
war; it produced condition in which
the possibility of a German success was
paApnt, at least to Germans and neu-
traA 1t brought back the old problem
OF fHa, and in the next twelve months
there vas to be repeated the German
effort Of the Marne campaign. From
August, 1917, onward the German prob
lem and the German hope was to or
ganize new blow which should crush
France and Britain before America
could arrive, as Germany sought to crush
them in 1914 before Russian operations
IN the East should demand attention.