Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-05-05
THINKS HUNS ABLE
TO REPEAT ATTACK
Writer Estimates the Present
:. Enemy Strength on the
Western Front. :.
FIFTY RESERVE DIVISIONS
BY PAUL SCOTT MoWRER.

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CsIlesra. to The sunday Star .nd the
ChieAgo Daily News. Copyright, 1918.
WITH THE FRENCH ARMIES, May
Many persons seem to believe that
the German reserves are inexhaustible.
since, after the heavy losses Of near
four years Of continuous warfare. the
enemy makes bigger offensive than
ever before. What is the truth OF this
matter? What Is really the state OF
the German reserves? The question is
important, and for the last fortnight I
have been trying to obtain some sort of
an estimate of Germany's present
strength. Though no Official informa-
tion on the subject 10 available. be-
Neve the following calculations to be
somewhere near the truth:
In all the Germans have between 240
and $50 divisions. Of which about 20S
are now on the western front. OF these
140 have been engaged In the present
battle to date, but Is some have been
engaged twice and others even thrice.
the total presence Of divisions on the
battle front reaches something like 1856
From the foregoing 1t appears that the
enemy still has sixty-five fresh divi-
sions in France, but about ten Of these
are generally considered SO poor as to
be unfit for offensive action. The total
number Of fresh divisions available for
aft Ne" OFFENSIVE H. 'nsfe'ore' ABOUT
Estimate Of Losses.
What have been the German losses in
the present battle? It is impossible to
know exactly. but 1 can make what 1
believe to be good guess. Experts
IL withdrawn from battle when i'll
leses 1900 men, Some divisions lose
more and some less, but the experipnce
Of the last three years shows this to be
that there have been 1856 passages Of
divisions and multiplying by 1900 we
And that the total German losses have
been more than $4,000. This figure il
opinion Of some Of my French military
friends to whom I have submitted the
calculation.
Let us now examine the probable
reserves are not formed into new d.
visions, but are kept in depots to fill
the gaps in the divisions already exist
ing. Without them the army would
ming Of the offensive ali men over eighteen
had been modified and the class of
1920-that is to say, boys Of seventeen
had been called for training. There are
cannot possibly be in service before
next October. What reserves. then, did
the enemy actually possess that were
ready to fight? As nearly as can be de-
the advanced depots and 100000 in the
interior depots, making total of
$4,000. Subtract the loss in the pres
emit battle and the remainder 10 3o0. 1000.
Many Restored to Service.
But to md the present strength OF
the German reserves to this must be
added the men who wholly rscover
from their wounds. Army doctors with
whom have talked estimate that $780,
Of 3so.ooo will again be At for reserves
The total OF the reserves IL thus 49,
600. All in all Germany certainly is
able to make one more big effort. She
has some fifty fresh divisions and
other $4,000 with the same rapidly ~
in the last offensive the question OF
electives will begin to be serious
Sass en h .e Il 1es
another six weeks by July T.. Field
Marshal Hindenburg will have dificulty
In finding men to NIL the gaps.
Allies Reserve Inexhaustible.
may point out that since Americas
entry into the war the allies reserve
has been made practically inexhaust-
ing the number Of American divisions
in France. There is another little cal
culation which any one may make
without trouble. It was announced be-
fore the battle that the number of
French and British divisions on this
front was nearly equal to the number
of Germans. In the present battle the
allies have been outnumbered often two
to one. 1t seems, therefore. extremely
probable that the allies at the present
moment have many more fresh diyi.
sions than the Germans have. Such, at
any rate, 10 my guess.