Forest City press. (Forest City, Potter County, D.T. [S.D.]) 1883-19??, 1918-01-24
GERMANY, TO CONQUER, MUST
DOWN ALLIES DURING 1918
MILITARY EXPERT PREDICTS CONTINUATION OF ITALIAN
DRIVE OR NEW Of lSIvE IN MESOPOTAMIA BY TEU-
TONS TO FORCE Dl-,SI0N BEFORE AMERICA is READY.

''sab TX .iIS iIoM- ~ 81
and away beyond the military are the
economic questions. Every month the
war continues the world is becoming
ihsenslbly but Enthusiastically organized
industriallN. economically, financially
against the German: the hostility to
Germany is spreading and The task of
reSaining the old markets and estab-
llshlng the old commercial relations is
becoming more difficult. Thus. if Ger
many has the opportunity to strike, she
has also the necessity of making
pror,pf efforts to close the war. which
is no longer merely a problem of mill
tary factors.
But where Will she strike? This is
the question which is filling the press
OF the world today. VIII she strike in
Asia Minor to regain Basdad and Jeru-
salem, restore her dream of a Berlin
Byzantium-Bagdad railway. regain her
old s%allyport against British Egypt and
the Suez canal with n Turkish Palestine
supplied? VIII she attack the hetero-
generous force now defending Saloniki
and Offering he sole European obstacle
to the completion of M~itteleuropa. wall
ing oft this vast Teutonic creation from
the -fcsean and from he natural outlet
OF the central empire at the south.
Plan to Hit the West.
Or will the Germans make one more
colossal effort in the west? They failed
at the Marine. they failed at the User
and about Ypres, they failed at Nerdun:
and in these three attempts they had
all the advantages that numbers, prep .
a%ration, munitions could give them. Can
they hope to succeed now? Is it worth
the sacrifice. recognizing that if they
try and fail they will come to tae end
OF the year facing victorious foes who
are assured of a great strategic reserve
m the following campaign. when the
united States is at last ready?
1nQ CaTnlonC hnyn nnrD,,ron1 t1,0t,. 7
forthcoming attack is TO be made in the
west. They nave heralded it with brass
oands and a blare of trumpets; out
their attack upon Nerdun. upon Russia
IN April, 1915, upon Italy a few weeks
ago. all these were surprises: so far as
German publicity was concerned. If
Germany contemplated an attack in the
west would she talk about it, giving
her foes due warning. the chance to
make the last preparation and search
their own fronts yet once more for
some weak point?
1t seems to me, and this is the con-
clusion l find in most OF the European
journals, that a German offensive in
the west is unlikely. 1t is by no means
lnconceivable; it may come: it will
come II the Germans are actually in
possession OF information, naturally
lacking in our own case, which would
lead them to believe that either the
British or the French armies are break
ing down In morale, as were the Italian
before the recent disaster; but, accept
ing the possibility. it remains plain
that the great weight Of chance is
against such a venture.
A western offensive can come, it
seems to me. only II the German situa-
toni mean economic. not military
is 80 desperate that the Germans feel
that they must risk everything on one
more bid for a quick decision. In that
case they will attack in the west, be-
cause nowhere else can a decision be
had. A complete victory in Italy, ever
a victory which brought Italy to make
a separate peace. would not be decisive
so far as Britain. France and the United
States are concerned. Much less would
a complete success at aloniki or about
Bagdad win the war. Or eve compel
peace on terms which would leave Ger
many any substantial profit for her
great sacrifices in men and treasure.
Victory in the war. ii it is to come on
the field of battle, must come some-
where between the North sea and Swift
%zerland. n il Germany feels that she
must risk all on one more bid for a de-
cision under conditions far less advan-
tageous II on the other occasions
she will attack or the west and we shall
see the greatest conflict of the war
unfold within the next two or three
months.
Saloniki an Easy Prize.
If Germany desires to take Saloniki. I
think The majority of allied military
critics are of the opinion that she could
do it at a price. She has the interior
lines of communication. An attack upon
Saloniki would put the allied transport
system to a very great strain; it would
compel q further shift OF French and
British troops to tine near east, certain
to be opposed bitterly in both nations.
and 1t would thus weaken the western
front. which remains the decisive front.
The Germans could also rely upon Bull
gnrian troops for the main effort. F,or
Bulgaria aloniki in the prize that has
been sought ever since Bulgaria began
TO have great aspirations.
Germany would supply the guns the
g~eneralship. a few chosen troops, per-
haps no more than those Below is Lead
units might be added. now that Austria
has been saved from immediate ankle
ties. Such an attack would be directed
against "A very strange allied army.
made up Of Italians, Serbs, Greeks, Rus
slams. British. French and contingents
drawn from British Inc French colon
les. These forces hold a wide front,
communication behind them. the
people Of the districts they occupy are
in part hostile, as is u considerable
element in all Of Greece.
Now conceive what would be the eff
feet Of a sudden and successful push
early in the spring which carried the
Germans close to Saloniki, il 1t did not
Immediately win the town. At the out
set OF a new campaign the allies would
suffer a moral defeat. They would
have promptly to decide whether to
send troops from the west to the near
east at a moment when the German
blow In the west would still seem to