The herald., 1918-01-24
Will Not Commence Until Nations
Army Is Most Powerful
in Field.
TO FACE SIX MILLION MEN
Strength Of German Forces United
States Must Meet and Overcome
Can Be Closely Esti-
mated.
By JOHN LLOYD sALpERsToN.

on the western front was the French
phase. 1t lasted until five o'clock or
the morning of July l, 1916. when Brit
ish TOmmies went over the top on the
SOmme, relieved the pressure on Yer
dun, and commenced the second phase
of the war, the British phase. Jules
Cambon said in Paris recently that
the third phase of the war, the Ameri
can phase, began with the landing OF
American troops in France.
But strictly speaking, the American
phase will not commence until the
American army is the most powerful
In the field, ready to carry on to vic
tory when the French and British have
done their part. That will not come
before the autumn of 1918.
What will the American armies next
year be up against in France? 1t is
possible to answer that question. with
in a margin Of error Of not more than
10 or Is per cent. To do so involves
the use Of figures. Figures are dry
and tiresome-mOst figures-but not
these. The blood-curdling and incred-
ible adventures packed into all the
dime novels and movies of the world
would not equal those which have gone
to make up these figures, figures whose
genesis and compilation must be hid
den under the mystic word, intel
ligence.
Figures are Authorized.
After the war, when the intelli'
gence gives up Its secrets, nobody In
search of excitement will need to read
fiction. Today, all that can be said is
that details here given Of the strength
and composition of the enemy armies
are authorized for publication. They
are details whose main interest for
America lies not in how they were
compiled, but In the meaning they hold
for the United States, the duty they
point out.
II the war goes on, and the allied
armies continue killing Germans at
the average rate maintained since Au-
gust, 1914, there will be approximate
ly $4,000 German soldiers left in
November, 1918, when the British
phase of the war will probably have
closed and the American phase begun.
OF these, 4.232, 900 will be fighting men
at the front.
How this figure Is arrived at will be
made clear In the course Of detailed
analysis of the German armies as they
exist today. This analysis comes I'M
der three heads. ~ How many divi-
sions have the Germans in the fieldl
(2) How many reserves has Germany
available to I'LL up the gaps in the divi-
sions, the fighting units? (3) What
Is the rate of wastage Of the German
armies7
The most important Of the three.
and the one concerning which the
greatest accuracy Is possible, Is the
enumeration, and incidentally the loca-
ton. Of the German divisions.
There are today on all the fronts
231 German divisions. OF these 155
are at present stationed on the west
front and 70 on the east front. Ger
man divisions vary enormously In
value, and to a considerable extent in
numbers. But II Is now believed that
the process Of subtracting three regi-
ments from each German division, one
regiment from each Of the divisions
three brigades, has been completed.
This was commenced last winter, with
the object of forming a large number
of new divisions at the expense Of the
existing ones.
Strength Of Divisions Reduced.
Accordingly the strength Of the av.
erage German division has been re-
duced, since the close of the battle of
the Somme. by about one-fourth. In
stead of the 10000 men which for
merly represented the full strength of
a German division, each division now
$4,000. This does not mean
10000 bayonets; In modern warfare
SO many troops must be detailed for
and other duties that
not more than 1900 men in a division
Of three brigades Of three regiments
the standard German size
can man the trenches or attack at
my one time. This reduction In
strength was undertaken not, as was
hastily assumed at the time, because
Germany was running short Of men,
but because fresh divisions were want.
ed to over-run Roumania and take
part In the great offensive this year
On the west front that seems to have
been perforce abandoned.
The 231 existing German divisions.
that all are at full strength,
account for 100000 men. This does
lot take into account the central re-
serve in Germany from which gaps are
illed, the great quantities Of inferior
andwehr and landsturm troops gar
occupied territories more than
half as big as Germany, nor the young
,oys who have been or shortly will
,e called up for service.
Reserve Strength More Uncertain.
The second part Of our analysis
Il the German armies. the problem Of
AVAILABLE reserves, cannot be solved
With the accuracy possible In dealing
With the fighting divisions. 1t Is known
hat 10000 boys reach the age of
Eighteen every year In Germany, and
rom prisoners captured and the medi-
al records Of the French and British
rmies I'm dealing with siu,ilar r,afa