The Barre daily times. (Barre, Vt.) 1897-1959, 1918-10-26
WHERE DO EpIDEMIcs GO?
Equally Battling Is Question Where They
Come From.


Come From.
Science, which has done such wonders
| in detecting the causes of disease and in
| devising safeguards, still finds much
that is battling in the swift spread of cpl
denies, says the Springfield Republican
Hardly less mysterious than their rise i
their decline. In the case of so peryasivt
pest as influenza, it is tempting I'd
suppose that the decline comes when the
susceptible have all been hit, but this
| is hardly adequate. 1t assumes expo.
sure to infection to be a definite loo
per cent thing, which either happens OF
doesn't happen, but upon analysis this Ia
seen not TO be the case Out Of doors
it is possible to breathe in enough bacilli
to contract the disease, but the dose il
greatly diluted; in crowded interior
where people are coughing and sneezing
the exposure is evidently greater. More
over susceptibility is not constant; in
the same individual it varies with health
or fatigue or wet feet, and by an epi-
demic during the brief run.
Much as the laboratory has done and
is doing to solve the riddle of zymotie
disease, there is a great field still not
fully worked for the study Of the natur-
al history of epidemics. In earlier times
the course of such yisitations could be
only imperfectly traced or not at all,
because OF defective communication.
Even at present facilities are not first
rate because of the war We have TO
take on hearsay or from vague unset
entific reports many of the facts relat-
ing to the world wide spread of infu-
enza; in some cases, too, a tendency to
misrepresent the facts may be suspect
ed. Sooner or later, however, full ac-
counts will be available, and the ma
terials for comparative study will be in
initely greater than in the correspond
ing epidemic of 30 years ago, when bac.
teriology was in its infancy.
In practically all countries now there
are trained men Of science who are quite
qualified to make close study of the
disease, and from the collection of their
notes it should be possible to get new
light on this pretean malady and its
diverse complications. Many questions
in regard to it can perhaps be answered
only by studying it a. world phenome-
non, A Russian physician now in New
York, who in his own country eombated
several epidemics Of influenza, the other
day ascribed the unusual prevalence of
pneumonia in connection with 1t to the
inadequate heating of American homes
in autumn. But this is purely a local
theory; it would not account, for exam
pie, for the many cases of pneumonia
on ship reaching a port on the Gulf of
Mexico after a voyage through tropical
seas. In general we know that the
symptoms of the disease and its Sc.
verify have varied greatly in different
countries. In some cases an exceptional
mortality, like that reported from equa-
torisl Africa, may be due to the special
susceptibility of the population to bron-
chial affections--on some islands the ar
rival OF a ship il apt to be followed
by an epidemic of colds, which Is as se-
rious as influenza to people who have not
acquired resistance through exposure
These variations in susceptibility,
however, do not account for the remark
able variability of the disease itself in
different countries and at different times
in the same country, Is it possible that
in some cases country may require a
certain immunity through being initial
~ infected with light form of the dis
ease, kind Of involuntary vaccination 7
For this chance might suffice, but as an
epidemic proceeds we should expect the
milder types to have greater viability.
Severe cases go to the hospital or die
by the wayside; the lightly stricken 20
on their way poisoning the air. If the
Infection is an unstable blend of bacill
Of related but varying character its dis
indignation and gradual attenuation
might so be in some measure account
able for. At all events the study of the
present epidemic on broad lines as a
world phenomenon related to the war,
to the migration Of peoples, to prevalent
restitution and hunger may give impor.
tant clews which the bacteriologist can
follow up.
From such studies something may be
learned in regard to the puzzling phe-
nomena of the emergence and decline of
great evidence It is the belief of many
biologists that the total quantity Of dis
ease germs in the world is practically
the same from age to age; to expect to
abolish them would be chimericaI, and
to keep them at a distance would be only
to weaken resistance as with the Mar.
tians in H. q. Wells story, who fell
victims to germs that were quite harm.
less to us. A large measure Of immuni.
ty we all possess, and it can be in.
creased by increasing health and vital.
ity. In some degree epidemics get their
start from conditions which deplete the
vitality of large populations, but this
is not complete explanation; in the
bacterial complex also changes may per.
haps occur, making the disease for a
time more formidable, and after a time
less formidable till static conditions are
restored. With the deeper scientific
knowledge now available the study OF
the present worldwide epidemic may
throw much light on these. questions and
nprhans lead tn means for nrpyeutino ~