New-York tribune., 1918-03-08
The Unconquered Submarine

ment as to submarine sinkings from the
German point of view which has yet ap-
peared. 1t gives definite figures. Upon
one point alone does there appear to be
any material room for misrepresentation.
That is as to the actual destruction ac-
complished by the German submarine.
On this point there is this to be said:
Month by month since the U-boat cam
paign began the German Admiralty has
published definite figures, not of ships,
but of actual tonnage sunk.
Month by month the British Admiralty
has refused to give any definite figures,
on the ground that it would give aid and
comfort to the enemy.
1t is, we regret to say, a natural infer
ence that the estimates and conjectures
based upon the British reports of ships
sunk are below the reality. In other words,
that more than six million tons of'British
and Allied shipping was sunk last year.
One source of error is in the assumed
average tonnage Of the ships sunk. The
average of British ships of over 1900
tons as shown by Lloyds Register runs
about four thousand tons. Our informa-
ton is that the actual tonnage of the
ships sunk would average nearer six
thousand tons.
If this be true, then the estimated ton
mage sunk computed by this method
would be nearly nine million tons. This
is the German claim.
Quite startling confirmation Of these
figures came in Wednesdays cables. In the
House of Commons Commander Carlyon
Bellairs, a Unionist member, stated that
submarine sinkings Of merchantmen
averaged 10000 tons weekly in January
and 1000 tons weekly in February. This
would be at the rate of three and a half
to four million tons per year.
And January and February are poor
months for hunting with submarines.
1t is further stated that "sinkings have
now fallen to about the level of when the
unrestricted campaign began" This
gives clew to the chart of sinkings by
quarters, published last December by the
British Admiralty, with no figures given.
A computation from this would indi-
cate that the losses of last year might
have been above ten million tons; that is,
a million tons higher than the German
claim
With this we nay link the fact that
the estimated new ship tonnage produced
in January and February in England and
America did not exceed one-half the
losses reported by the British Admiralty
nor third the amount claimed by the
German authorities.
The German claim for all shipping
losses by the Allies from the beginning Of
the war is fourteen million tons. There
is regrettably no positive evidence to in
dicate that this estimate is extravagant.
Allowing for new construction, It
seems probable that the available sea-
going tonnage of the Allies has been re-
duced since the beginning Of the war to
something like one-half. And there is
10 indication now that new tonnage will
oyertake the present rate of destruction
before late in the fall.
In the light of these facts it is difficult
stO understand the notion prevalent in
many quarters that the submarine cam
paign has been a failure. It has disap-
pointed GerTnany's first expectations, but
It is still for the Allies terrific menace.
SO far as new British construction is
concerned, Sir John Ellerrnan before the
Chamber Of Shipping on Wednesday said
that the whole output Of new tonnape in
Britain since the outbreak Of the war was
not enough to replace the losses by ma
rinc causes alone, leaving all Of the sub
marine destruction to be made up. This
goes far TO corroboratc the German cs
Inmates.
Furthermore, it makes clear that prac-
flcaily all Of the replacement of gubma
rine losses must be done by the United
states. As 10 our capacity, the German
estimates are absurdly low.
But, according to our adyices from
Washington, the best We can possibly
hope for this year is four million tons OF
new shipping, with present probabilities
rather less than this. And this is dead
weight tonnage, which averages only
aboat two-thirds Of registered tonnage.
And the most Of this tonnage Will not
be delivered before the last three months
of the year.
The Tribune believes that there is here
an imposing demand for action IF there
is any human way The afipbuildjng pro.
grarnre must be apeeded up 10 the limit.
Chairman Hurley has stated that II
the men and the noatcriaig are available
70 run all the ahipyan% twcnty-fopr
hours day-~shree shiftaf f9f eight boura