Americus times-recorder. [volume] (Americus, Ga.) 1891-current, 1918-08-01
SMALL CAUSE FOR ALARM.


view that the cotton farmers today
are resolved and are prepared to pur-
sue a more rational course. There
little evidence that the actual farmer
is the least panicky over the cotton
situation. He remembers the sad eX-
perienca of 1914 when we brought a
big crop to market just after the
world war broke, and because there
was then more cotton than could be
sold and delivered, we fell into hys-
terics and sacrificed a large part OF
il below cost of cultivation. If we
had been wiser then, we would have
retired a small part of the crop and
sold the greater part of it at fair
prices because, as a matter of fact,
We had to hold small part and ulti-
mately we absorbed it in the reducted
crops of the three succeeding years.
Some people seem to have the no
ton that the situation now is as seri-
GUS as it was in 1914. It does not so
appear. But even If it were. If we
will only profit by the experience OF
1914 we can easily solve the problem.
Let us first analyze the statistical
position. The July crop report in
dictated a production of 15,3OO,O0O
bales. That estimate is based upon
an acreage of 81 per cent in excess
of last year and upon condition or
85.s per cent compared with 1903 per
cent in 1917 and 1913 per cent for the
ten-year average. Unfavorable wea-
ther from this time forward during
the growing season, or early frost, or
both, might reduce that estimate a
full million bales. The boil weevil
has ample time yet to reduce the es-
innate a half million bales. Still we
must accept the estimate as proba-
bility.
We had manufactured in the United
States for the II months ending June
30, 6,O49,544 bales. The consumption
for June was 527,464 and the July
consumption will probably be as
much, and this means that for the II
months ending July 81, we will have
manufactured something over IL
million bales. 1t is fair to assume that
we will manufacture at least as much
newt year, and every condition indi-
Gates that We will manufacture more.
We think it altogether safe to assume
that we will consume of the new crop
at least million bales in American
mills We have exported for the IL
months ending June 30, 4,256,352
bales By the end of July we will
have exported something more than
4 IL million If We could not manu-"
facture more than we manufactured
last year. and if We could not export
more, of course we would have sur
plus of something like 4 million bales.
Do not consider present stocks as
constituting a surplus from the crop
of 1917. The cotton on hand in con-
Stunning establishments on June 80 was !,
/ ,661 ,992 compared with 1,743,527 last
year, and the cotton in storage fori
the corresponding dates was 2,117 300
compared with 1,4O2,4OS. In these
two items we have only 633,362 bales
more than we had at this time last
year. That is mere trifie in view
Of the increasing demand for cotton
goods on account of the scarcity and
high prices of wool and silk.
OF course, no man can say with any
certainly how much shipping will be
available for export during the next
twelve months, but we do know that
at the present time the allied coun-
tr1es are constructing ships faster
than they are being destroyed and
that submarines are being destroyed
faster than they are being built. Let
us all hope that We can maintain this
rate of progress; in that event thereI
may be considerably more shipping