The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1918-06-08
Outlook for Cotton.
To the Editor of The News and Cou-

HciS anu SpeCuidtOTS III cOuIu easily tie
up an amount of money that would
be, not only a standing menace to
the cotton trade, but menace to
the morale of the business of the ma
ton as well. The cotton not re
must be carried by SOM ebody AS it
has been definitely established that
cotton is a surplus crop, it is evident
that the producers are the only mem
bers of the cotton community who can
do this without subjecting the trade
and the country to perilous risk.
The trend Of events indicates that
the producers will have to do this the
coming season to protect their own
interest These ern,Its are rathe
plainly outlined Due to the scarcity
OF labor, it has been evident for some
time that the country was facing re-
duced production. 1t is reasonable to
| expect that this will be reflected in re-
ducing the output of American cotton
mills just as it will be reflected in re-
ducing the output Of most of the 9th
er standard industries. Then, the
movement of troops and war supplies
aboard can hardly be expected tO
reach its maximum by fall. Hence
any relief Of the export situation by
that time is prOblematical. At least
it is safer to calculate that it will not
improve.
1t seems therefore, within n reason
able probability that tn, producers
will have to face NJ the beginning OF
the season of 1913 a reduced con
sumption of American cotton and the
handling of growing surplus in ad-
dition to the new crop. Assuming that
! this situation develops. it Is perfectly
obvious that if the producers at
tempt to force the new crop on the
market as it is gathered from the
fields it will have to be sold at sac
riice, and there are many evidences
that it will be at n runous sacrifice
at that.
This prospective situation is fal
more mOmentOus than many of us
probably realize. 1t involves matters
or the very greatest public concern, as
indicated above, for it will plainly af-
feet. and very vitality so, other large
financial and commercial interests
AID vast military interests also quite
as much as it will affect the cotton
trade. In view Of these things. the
attitude of the producer in such cir
cumstances is matter of first i'm
portance. How will he meet such q
situation should it come about, and
has he the resources to carry the cot
ton until ii can be marketed not ONLY
without sacrifice but at profit? In
what direction shall we turn for an
answer To these questions?
The clearest AID most Illuminating
answer resides in the history Of the
cotton market during the last five
years. 1t shows, with only one ey-
ception. that the producers have car
RED practically all of every crop dur
ing this time until their views as to
inc price were realized. And this was
done i'm the face of difficulties, many
OF them, far more formidable than
any that are likely to develop the
coming season. 1t is significant that
at no time during this period has any
appreclable amount of cotton in the
hands Of the producers been disturb
ed by breaks i'm the future market in
Guiding, too, the historic event o.
February 1st, 1917, and the events
OF recent weeks. 1t should be empha
sized in this connection that the only
spot cotton affected by these declines
had passed out of the hands of the
producers.
The exception referred to was the
iecline which followed the breakine
out OF the war, and it throws q mos
Illuminating light upon the ability
and the disposition of the producer,
to take care of their interest. The de
mora liZation which followed the he
ginning of the war, it is well to re
member, was not confined to cOtto,
producers alone, but to every class O.
business men. THE producers recov
cred from the shock as soon as an,
other members of the business com
munity. After they recovered the,
financed and carried for more than
year an amount of cotton that was
probably double any amount they ar,
likely to be called upon to carry tn
tl II,