The Fargo forum and daily republican. [volume] (Fargo, N.D.) 1894-1957, 1918-01-05
t. B-Italian front. c. Macedonian front

could give them. Can they hope to
succeed now? is it worth the sac
| rifice, recognizing that IL they try
and fail they will come to the end of
the year facing victorious foes who
are assured of q great strategic re-
serve in the following campaign, when
| the United States is at last ready?
4 The Germans have announced their
forthcoming attack is to be made in
the West They have heralded it
with brass bands and a blare of
trumpets; but their attack upon
Verdun, upon Russia in April, 1915,
upon Italy few weeks ago. all these
were surprises so far as German
publicity was concerned. If Germany
, contemplated an attack in the West,
would she talk about it. giving her
foes due warning, the chance to make
the last preparation and search their
own fronts yet once more for some
weak point?
1t seems to me, and this is the con-
clusion find in most of the Euro
pean Journals, that a German offens-
i've in the West is unlikely 1t is by
no means inconceivable; it may
come; it will come IL the Germans
are actually in possession Of infor-
nation, naturally lacking in our own
case, which would lead them to be-
Iieve that either the British or the
French armies are breaking down in
morale, as were the Italians before
the recent disaster; but, accepting
the possibility, 1t remains plain that
the great weight Of chance is against
such a venture.
A Western offensive can come, it
seems to me, only If the German
4 10
tary-is so desperate that the Ger
mans feel that they must risk every
thing on one more bid for a quick
decision. In that case they will at
tack in the West, because nowhere
else can a decision be had. "A COM
plete victory in Italy, even victory
which brought Italy to make a sep
arato peace, would not be decisive
SO I1r as Britain, France and the
United States are concerned. Much
less would a complete success at
Salonica or about Bagdad win the
war, or even compel peace on terms
which would leave Germany any
substantial profit for her great
sacrifices in men and treasure. Vic
tory in the war, liz it Is to come on
the field of battle. must come some
where between the North Sea and
Switzerland, and If Germany feels
that she must risk all on one more
bid for a decision under conditions
far less advantageous than on the
other occasions she will attack in the
West and we shall see the greatest
conflict OF the war unfold within the
next two or three months.
on the> other hand, IL Germany
hopes simply to last the war out,
il she hopes to win 1t as Frederick
the Great won his most terrible
struggle, by wearing out his foes, as
Louis XIV saved HIS territory in the
war of the Spanish Succession, she
is most likely to seek to break the
nerve of her opponents by aiming at
victories in indecisive fields, which,
despite the fact that they are minor,
will impress the world. and because
OF local circumstances can be won
with a minimum of cost to herself
Such an operation was the attack
upon Rumania a year ago. The re-
sent Italian affair is an equally good
illustration of this strategy.
If Germany desires to take Salon
lea, think the majority of Allied
military critics are of the opinion
that she could do 1t at a price. She
has the interior lines of communtca-
ton. An attack upon Salonica would
put the Allied transport system to a
very great strain; IL would compel a
further shift of French and British
troops to the Near East, certain TO
be opposed bitterly in both nations,
and ii would thus weaken the Vest
ern front, which remains the decisive
front The Germans could also rely
upon Bulgarian troops for the main
effort. For Bulgaria Salonica is the
prize that has been sought ever since
Bulgaria began to have great aspira-
tions.
Germany would supply the guns,
the generalship, a few chosen troops,
perhaps no more than those Below is
leading In Northern Italy. Certain
Austrian units might be added, now
that Austria has been saved from
immediate anxieties Such an attack
would be directed against a very
strange Allied army, made up Of
Italians, Serbs, Greeks, Russians,
British, French and contingents
drawn from British and French
colonies. These forces hold a.
wide front. with comparatively
few good lines OF communica-
ton behind them, and the peo-
pie of the districts they occupy
are in part hostile, as is a consider
able element in all Of Greece.
eNow, conceive what would be the
eject of q sudden and successful
push early IN the spring which carr
ried the Germans close to Salonica4
tf it did not Immediately win the