New Britain herald., 1918-01-19
Henry CIews
 ES Weekly Letter
Especial to the Herald),

government being the last example
 Criticism is easy and should not be indulged too freely, because it is un- desirable to embarrass an overloaded government which is already doing it's utmost to meet a most difficult situ- ation. The difficulty in the coal situ- ation is two-fold; first, production; second, distribution. Just which is the most serious does not yet ap. pear. Production has been made. quate for several we'll known reasons, one being the diversion of consider able labor from coal mining and the frequent unwillingness of labor to in. crease the output. This is a prob lem that ought to be solved without difficulty The miners if rightly han dled could probably be induced to do their share toward winning the war by increasing their output. As for the transportation problem, that is unquestionably grave one, but cer-
 tainly not unsolvable. Congestion is
 ! problem for experts, not amateur
 ra5ulators. The severe weather may
 have aggravated a bad situation, but other causes contrib buted to the rail- road breakdown; the Interstate Com- merce Commission itself not being en- tirely free of responsibility. The drastic order of the fuel administra- tor, though probably a mistake, will hasten the solution of the crisis, which incidentally affords notable lesson upon government efficiency in business
 The war offered no events of par ticular significance; winter having inn posed a check upon all military opera tions. Expert opinion is that Ger many is preparing for a drive on the western front; but if so this causes no apprehension among the Allies, who appear confident of holding their ground. Meanwhile our own efforts are being pushed with all possible speed in order that an American army of considerable size may be able to take the field in the coming spring, and so hasten an end to the struggle. Signs of internal dissen- sions and weakness multiply in Ger many; and therein perhaps lies the greatest hope of peace. Certainly peace rumors grow more and more persistent every week, and with them a belief that the coming German drive will be the supreme effort preparatory to fresh peace negotiations.
 One of the persistent factors in the security market is the high rates of interest resulting from worldwide wastage of capital, and any further advance would be regarded unfavor- l ably, although this condition is not in ! sight, and it is satisfactory to note ] that the worlds money markets are ! easier just now than for several : months. The last instalment upon | the second Liberty loan was paid this i week, which leaves the money market ] temporarily free of government de- mands. There is more or less expect | ancy regarding the rate to be paid on the next loan, the announcement of , which is expected at no very distant l date. Tn view Of relatively high rates | for money the world over, and the de- | cline in market value of the second 1 loan, the expectation is for 1-4 per : cent rate, although on the other hand views are expressed favoring a 4 per | cent. rate with special privileges or i exemptions to stimulate distribution. i Or why is not this an opportune time to put out a 365 three-year Treasury note bearing interest at the rate of one cent day; such notes being tf easy calculation and convertible into : per cent. bonds at maturity? Such a note would generally he recog- | nized as money drawing interest. 1
 Tho railroad outlook is confused by 1 uncertainty concerning the attitude of i Congress toward President Wilson's , recent recommendations for Govern 1 ment control. The present congestion l of transp ortation is naturally an ad- 1 verse factor. since January expenses 1 are almost sure to exhibit heavy in. 1 creases. MT. Wilson's .recommenda- l tions to Congress, however, will cer- i talnly receive serious consideration I and much of the strength of prices l the last few days is due to the state. | ment of President Willard of the Bal timore & Ohio that the Presidents ! recomm endations, if carried into ef- feet, would mean the maintenance of 1 railroad dividends on the basis of the 1 past three years. Railroad securities are selling at the lowest prices in a ! long period, the standard issues yield. 1 ing about a per cent. on current 1 market values. It would seem. there fore that they had fairly discounted ! all known uncertainties including the 1 remote factor of Government owner ship.
 The coal order had but a temporary 1 effect upon security markets, the de- cline which at first resulted being 1 followed by quick recovery. Many | took the view that any temporary loss from shutdowns would be offset by the greater safety against a coal 1 famine, which might have caused still greater inconvenience. The general 1 financial outlook is of course much