New-York tribune., 1918-02-14
Vast Resources Cannot Be
Utilized Before Fall,
Says Expert
--------.---
Railroads Must
Be Reorganized
Gathering Crops and Re.
building Lines First !.
Requirement
By Arthur S. Draper

LONDON, Feb. ia high authorit,
on commercial and economic relations
has supplied me with some facts apro
pos the situation produced by the &C
ton of the Bolshevik government in
withdrawing from the war.
Not before the end Of the next har
vest can Russia give material help te
the Central Powers and not then un-
less meanwhile the Germans succeed
in rcorgnnzing the country's transpor
tation facilities. My informant states
that, although the grain harvest Of the
Ukraine was cons derable last year, the
breakdown in the machinery for col
lectlng and storing wheat means that
the Germans will have to organize
farm collection, and that is a practi-
cally hopeless job.
Because Of the shortage of male
labor the more distant wheat lands in
Russia are not under cultivation. As
result the harvest has dropped far
below normal. The Russian rolling
stock has suffered frghtfully. and all
eminent engineer is authority for the
statement that it will take at least a
year TO put 1T even on pre-war basis.
Railroads in Bad Shape
The Germans freight cars and loco
motives are showing signs Of constant
use and inadequate repairs. When re-
Gently Germany sold coal to Denmark
one provision of the agreement was
that the Danes send labor to mine the
coal and the rolling stock to transport
1t, The broader gauge of the Russian
railways means that Germany would
have to lay another rail before she
could utilize these roadbeds.
Russia can provide Germany with
timber and miner rails in unlimited quan-
titles, but not until transportation is
reorganizcd. Contrary to the genera
belief, Germany has no great amount
or manufactured articles on hand with
which to supply Russia. The fact that
the Scandinavian countries have fire.
quently tried in vain to get certain
articles formerly supplied by Germany
shows that the shortage of labor, lack
OF raw materials and inadequate trans
portation are great handicaps to the
enemy manufacturers. If Germany had
been able to supply these articles she
could have raised the value of the mark
in the Scandinavian countries.
Within the Central Powers. there are
about 100000 Russian prisoners,
while Russia holds about 100, 900 Ger
mans and approximately 100000 Aus
troHungarians. Whether the Central
Powers, especially Germany, would
welcome back these prisoners. who
have been living in the Bolshevik at
mosphcrc, remains to be seen.
Influence Is Doubtful
That these prisoners will influence
the military situation in the West is
considered extremely doubtful.
Germany hopes that conditions in
Russia will continue so chaotic that,
eventually, she will be asked to step in
and set the country to rights. Ger
man commercial penetration in Rus
STA, however, is not feared 50 long as
the war lasts, though the enemy will,
no doubt attempt to open trade rela-
tions Immediately.
first dropped to about quarter Of the
pre-war figures, and during the last
Two years, they have been practically
NIL. Before the war, the bulk Of her
trade was across the western frontier, |
but since the war it has naturally
passed through Finland.
Until representative and authori-
tatlve government exists in Russia,
Germany will have to gamble whenever
she makes business deal there. The
same thing holds for the Allies, and |
even to a greater extent, for it is be-
yond denial that neither America nor
Britain is popular with the Bolsheviki.
Those In the best position to judge
consider that Russia will be of little
'alue to Germany this year, and she
nay prove a considerable burden for
NE militaristS.