Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1918-10-07
criminal to Act on As.
bumption That War Will
End This Year
TIME TO WORK HARDER
Former Experiences Cited to
Show Germans Won't Quit
Unless Whipped
BY MAJOR GENERAL SIR FRED.
ERICk b. MAURICE
Formcr Director Of Operations Of the British
Army
Special Cobie TO Erenins Public Ledger
Copvrioht, 1878. bp Nc,c York times co.
Iondon oct. :.

Copvrioht. 1878. bp Ne,o York times co.
London, oct. :.
VIII II be over this year? That Is
the question which is today on many
lips. and II behooves us to give a rea
soned reply. not a reply based on vague
optimism or upon an exaggerated eaii-
mate of the 'enemy's power OF resistance,
but reply which shall guide our course
Of action for the remainder Of the war.
just four years ago, after the rude
shock of the enemys first victories.
after the conquest of Belgium, the re-
treat from Mons. and the threat to Paris.
came the miracle of the Marine. the
enemy's retrest to the Aisne, and ;he
annihilstion OF the Austrian army at
Lemberg. This same question was then
asked, and the answer was often: Why.
yes. these first successes which the
enemy has won were merely a flash in
the pan. The Allies have proved them
selves to be stronger. as we always
thought they were. The Russian steam
roller has only just begun to move. The
was will be over by Christmas"
The state of mind which produced such
= reply did us an infinity of harm. u
prevented us from taking OF our coats
and getting down to business at once.
II prevented us from realizing that we
were in for a war which was going to
absorb not merely the energies of our
navy and of our army, but the whole
vitality and resources of the nation.
Enemy's Power Dwindlinx
In the first place there is no aues-
tion that the enemy's military power is
dwindling His losses since he started
I..l. 4
to finish the war victoriously for him
have been enormous. In these two and
a half months the Allies have captured
25s,000 prisoners on the western front
alone. These men were all taken "a
the battlefields. and with very few excep-
tions would be grade one men. ! doubt
II the whole German annual contingent
of recruits today produces 100000 class
one men. To the prisoners must be
added the losses in killed and wounded,
and these, at a moderate estimate, would
not be fewer than four times as many
as the prisoners, say 900, 600.
4 30 In two and half months uermany
has lost on the western front not less
than 1.250, ,O0o men. To her annual con-
tingent Of nineteen-year-old boys. she
has only her recovered wounded and
sick to add and as these are not nearly
sufficient to make good these losses and
keep her armies up to strength, she has
therefore had TO live on her capital since
July rs. She has had to break up
twenty-one divisions in order to All the
ranks of the remainder. and at the same
time TO reduce the size of her battalions
In these remaining divisions: that is TO
say, she has had to reduce her military
establishment on the western front by
not fewer than 500. 900 men.
II
Americans have been pouring into
France. From reports which we have
received. we may estimate the number
of American soldiers who have COM
pleted their training and gone to the
front during this period of two and a
half months at about 100000. The
balance Of strength has therefore
changed in favor of the Allies to the ex-
tent OF approximately 100000 men :
and this profess which will continue until
the end Of the war, the dimunitiOn of
the enemys forces. is the key to what
has been happening recently in France
and Belgium.
The Germans, being unable to make
GOOD their losses, have been forced TO
try to reduce their commitments. When
Foch hurled them back from the Marne
to the Aisne, they attempted to shorten
their fronts on the Sonme and in tlan-
ders: but before they could do this In
their own time and in their own way
they were anticipated and defeated by
Sir Douglas Haig. They then hoped ia
he able to stand for the winter in the
Hindenburg system, and once more they
have been defeated by the skill Of the
Allied leadership and by the splendid
fghting Of the Allied troops.
The part taken by the British army II
this fighting is the most glorious in ~
whole history. Though In strength con
eiderably less than half of the tota
forces of the Allies in the west. oul
army. which has been fighting continu
ously since August 8. has reconaueret
considerably more than half of th'
Rround won and captured more thai
half of the prisoners taken. The mel
who have done this are those who in th
spring had TO bear the fun weight o
the enemy's attacks made at the tint
when he was al his greatest strength
AS I said six week ago complete mill
fary victory in the west Is certain. Tn
question Is, when will IT come? To an
swer that question we must look AT TN
picture from the enemys side and ais
carry our eyes beyond the western from
The enemy's losses have been heavy, bu