The Washington herald., 1918-03-09
The New Equation.

Who fathom the German program with
regard to Russia, and who has the self-assurance
to prophecy what will transpire during the next
eight months in Eastern Europe?
The fascination of pure mystery broods over
these questions. Nothing that the war has
brought forth has been so alluringly surcharged
with the spirit and "feel" of the unknown. Up
to few weeks ago there certain limitations
on the field of speculation and prophecy. There
are none now. Nothing is impossible. Anything
may happen.
Here is the golden chance for the supreme
intellect of the war-an opportunity for the Ma
poleon or the Frederick whom the struggle has
not yet developed The military genius or the
statesman who can divine what the future has in
store for the world, and has the chance to build
his plans upon that dvination, has civilization in
the palm of his hand.
Nobody knows how far the Germans will go
into Russia; whether the Slav is to remain pros
trate under the Teutonic heel, will repeat the
trick he played upon Napoleon; whether the lust
OF German ambition will be transferred from Bag
dad to Petrograd; whether the Austro-Germanc
powers of recuperaton and endurance are to be
given such stimulus by the present of events
that their armies will have strength to continue
the war for years to come-perhaPs for another
decade.
In other days we might have consulted the
listen in" at the allied military conferences, at
the inner chambers of Downing Street, the
State Department, the Quai dOrsay, doubt
it it would learn much it does not already know.
The in the street has much chance OF
being right in his dope" as the leading diplomatic
expert. Everybody stands aghast at the possibil-
tiles of the new equation There is method OF
explaining away the fundamental facts con-
fronting the world battling with the central EN-
a.. -, A-E,1, - H.. arAe e.
many has smashed and broken than half OF
the Iron ring" which, it hoped. would strange
her. She has flung to the floor one of her chief
enemies. The menace OF a Europe either all
Cossack all republican" has dropped from her
mind. She at least knows that Europe is
not going to be all Cossack.
Germany will devote the next six months 10
the economic penetration and exploitation of Russia.
1t would be easy ovcrestmate the supplies she
will get from this vast empire that is coming under
her sway just as a ripe apple falling from a tree;
but it would be just easy to underestimate IT.
The point is that every calculation that have
heretofore made about the is no longer worth
the paper it is written Every military analysis
every diplomatic analysis until recently, has been
built upon the basis that Russia would remain in
the war at least the extent OF holding large
German force the Eastern front Now such
an analysis is absolutely irrelevant. 1t is unsafe
to say that guerrilla forces OF Russians VIII
force the Germans to keep large armies in their
provinces
The war experts treadng on air.. They
see Japan making her first bid for place in the
conflict bid which conceivably may mean an
other Asiatic overflow into Europe, the worlds
battle-ground since the twilight of history. They
see Russia becoming pulpy mass, with the
German ambition and the German triumph in the
East apparently expanding with every hour. They
see resistance in the Balkans broken. They know
that the issue is squarely "up" to Great Britain
France and the United States. They know that
there can be no turning back, President Wilson
has said; that the present war is death-grapple
They know that many authorities believe that 1918
is the critical and eliminating year of the con-
flict.
But is it? We hazard negative More and
more the prospect OF many years more OF war
looms before us We of America on the
knees of the gods, and might we'll know II
now. In another twelve months will be the
chief power in the fight against the Germanzation
of the world Only if the throne of militarisn,
is broken by its own subjects there be any
escape from the task confronting