Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1918-10-13

strong. as we all know, and certain to
be strengthened in the next months.
Is i. not conceivable that the Ger.
man general staff will calculate that
it can break the force of allied at.
tack between the Scheldt and the
German frontier by the end of one
more campaign and that an exhausted
world will. at last. consent to peace
by negotiation, which will save for
Germany. not her conQuests of 1914
1918, but her position of August. 1914,
her position when she set forth on
her great and tragic adventure? As II
stands. peace on such terms as are
conceivable means the surrender OF
all Germany'S aspirations. ambitions
and not a few of her actual assets.
Inc military situation of Germany Is
bad, but it is not yet sufficiently bad
to lead German rulers and leaders to
accept the only terms on which peace
is to be had from the enemy. Napo-
leon refused better terms that Will
nam Ill can now obtain in the months
between Leipzig and Fontainebeau:
the result was ruin. but the alterna-
tive was the sacrifice of his dreams
of European domination. For many
months Napoleon believed that he
could wear out his foes. that he could
separate them by playing upon their
mutual rivalries; he believed that
France would rise against the invader
in 1914 as it did in 1892. His calcula-
lions were wrong. but the German
general staff is not likely to see more
accurately.
Why Huns Will Fight On.
1t seem to me that the decision of
the world-of the allied world-with
respect to Germany is SO clear. SO
denf1ite and SO fatal to German hopes,
to German future. that those who rule
Germany are bound to fight on, be-
cause between the terms which are
now obtainable and those which
would be obtainable after military de-
1eat-complete defeat-there is no
great margin of difference. and there
is still. for them. the chance, remote.
but real. that they may escape the
decisive defeat and endure until war
WEAKNESS and domestic unrest in al
iied countries make peace by nego.
gotlation means the salvage for Ger.
many of much-of very much-from
the wreck.
AS l see it. the situation is this:
me German general staff expects to
escape any decisive defeat this wear
and to stand with its main mass Of
armies still unbroken on some strong
defensive system when bad weather
closes the campaign of 1918. Despite
It's losses of men, material and terri
tory 1t will then claim that it has de-
feated the allied effort to win a deci-
sion and that it has demonstrated that
no decision is possible and that the
war must go on indefinitely at a ter.
ribie cost unless it is ended by nego-
tlatlon. Then will begin a period Of
reorganization by the German armies
for the next campaign and the forti.
ncatlon of new lines on the basis Of
the lessons of the present campaign,
Peace Offensive This Winter.
Meantime Berlin and Vienna will
launch tremendous peace offensive
designed to separate the rulers of
,, the various countries-that is, tho
leaders from their people. They will
make every conceivable verbal con-
4, cession. put aside all claims for profit
themselves and argue that only the
| lmperialistic ambitions of their foes
| prevent the making of peace. Such
an offensive will certainly have q
| great effect in Germany; we shall
| have to be on our guard to prevent
its making progress in our own
i countries.
We may assume that the peace Of
! fensive will fail: we may assume that
the allied nations will stand firm and
insist upon complete surrender al
the only condition of peace. Then.
when spring comes, Germany will
have made her plan for another cam
paign; she will retire to her selected
positions. leaving devastated districts
DenlnO ner, ana strive TO break our
first offensive blows as she broke
those of Nivelle and Haig in 1917.
All of her still considerable resources
! will go into this first effort. and the
German leaders may calculate that
they prolong the fighting for another
whole summer and see the campaign
end with the Germans at last within
their own boundaries, out of AlSace-
Lorraine and behind the Rhine. In
such a situation Germany may hope
and will hope that peace can be
had without surrender. with her po-
sition with respect to Russia I'M
! shaken and with the essential en-
tegrity of Austria assured. This
would be far better ending to the
war than is now obtainable. And there
is always the possibility. certain to
be counted upon by Germany, that
some allied nation would weary: that,
! for example. the new election in Brit
ain might turn out victory for