South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1918-01-04

price flUctuation. has been OF IN
( usual interest 20 the student Of
commerce. the cause OF constant
anxiety 10 the spinner, full of n
sational thrills for the trader. and
I a period Of unusual prosperity for
the cotton planter.
AS We entered the year. condi-
tons were as nearly normal as
could be expected in the midst OF
world war, American mills were
/ busy. exports were reasonably good.
and supplies were moderate as the
1916 crops, though slightly larger
than the previous crop, Was. never
theless, small and inadequate 10
| meet commercial requirements.
/ Prices were at what was then con-
sidered a high level. Cotton for
July delivery in New York was
quoted at s17.6S, this being the mi
tial transaction of the year 1t was
recognized at the time that with no
unusual interference with the eX-
port Of cotton there would likely be
but moderate supplies at the end
OF the season; and therefore the
general opinion of the trade was
that a high level Of values was JUS
titled and would likely prevail.
There was no change Of Importance,
either in price or market conditions,
during the month of January.
Break Last February.
On the first of February, however,
following the announcement from
Berlin that ruthless submarine war
I
Cured as sensational as ever oc-
Cured in any market Cotton for
July delivery in New York, having
closed at S17.64 on the previous
market day. sold as low as $3.50
on the morning of the first This
caused decentralization in every
market of the country. Cotton
merchants we're unable TO do bust
ness, factors tables were covered.
farmers refused TO sell, and the
only cotton available was that sold
on the New York or New Orleans
cotton exchanges which may he
termed distress selling" For a
short period thereafter there was
slight irregularity and uncertainty
in the market; but, gradually con-
actual cotton IN the south were firm
in their convictions as to the value
of the staple, they held tenaciously
to the remnant OF the crop and
the future fully justified their posi-
ton, for a gradual improvement set
in, and, at the expiration OF the
July option the closing price was
% cents, though values had reach
ed a higher level by several cents
during the intervening period.
The upward trend of the market
was accelerated by the climatic
conditions that prevailed during
the crop-growing season following.
Although the acreage was large, be-
ing estimated by the government at
346OO,0OO there was a constant
doubt as to the final outcome of the
crop. Fertilizer, which is absolute
ly essential on nearly all soils east
of the Mississippi river was not
only high in price but of doubtful
quality. Potash formerly supplied
almost exclusively by Germany was
only TO be in insignificant quantity
and at prohibitive cost. Climatic
conditions were not uniformly IA
vorable at any time over any con-
siderable area of the cotton belt. a
drought had prevailed in the south !
west for a considerable period. Later |
in the season. unfavorable weather !
developed in the eastern portions OF
the belt, the average crop condition I
Cor the entire belt having deteri- |
grated from 1913 on June 25th to
6O.4 on sept 25th. The greatest I
misfortune to the crop, however !
was experienced in October when 1
killing frost was reported in a num- !
Der of states during the week OF !
oct. SIS, as this was an unusually 4
early date and the crop was ex-
ceedingly late. The damage was ex-
cessive, estimated at over 100000 |
bales.
The final estimate of the crop was !
published on Dec. 18th. by the ayr
cultural department placing the |
yield at 1O,949, 900 bales of 500 lbs. /
gross weight, which compares with I
the actual census report of bales
ginned in the previous year of IL
$4,000 exclusive of linters.
Free Buying Causes Advance.
During the course of the crops /,
progress. and eliminating just prior |
to the publication of the final gov !
eminent estimate, the trade in its
effort to anticipate and 10 discount |
the conditions bought freely against
their future requirements, and thus
caused a sharp advance in values, !
prices of cotton in New York for
December delivery reaching 30.65. |
During the course of the year,
from the standpoint of price fluc-
tuations. il was not entirely a one
sided market. notwithstanding the
unfavorable crop conditions. There
was a great deal of irregularity
with frequent declines of consider
able extent, due TO the many uncer-
tainties created by the unsettled
conditions throughout the world.
Much trouble was experienced in
the transportation of cotton, due 10
the lack Of sufficient facilities. This
caused difficulty in accommodating
stocks at New York and New Or
leans for delivery or contracts.
Lack of ocean tonnage TO accom-
modate exports 10 Europe was also