Mexico weekly ledger., 1918-03-21
SUBMARINE CAMPAIGN
AGAINST AMERICA
The Suhmarine CshpaiEu AEainst
EaEland l. Eighteen Moashs
Behind the German
schedule
TRANSPORTATION SERIOUS


AAA N@AAHAA NAaAaAA1s = AAAAt
any possibility Of a serious interfer-
enee with transportation Of troops OF
Of a stoppage Of supplies hat would
endanger the effectiveness Of the
American armies? These questions
are frequently discussed here. where
the immensely Of Americas task is
better appreciated than anywhere
else in the world. not excepting
America. Last night ! happened to
meet a man who is very much in
touch with the submarine problem
and took a wider view Of it than any l
have seen elsewhere.
England is this month beginning to
feel the first serious effects Of IN
restricted submarine piracy" he
said. Sugar is being doled u to us
in ounces; the ration is Is ounces Of
meat per week and tea is strictly lin
tied. Anybody who went to sleep in
1915 and woke up in 1918 would say
that the situation was very bad. And
so it would be if it had been a sudden
development-yery bad. Supposing
we had reached these conditions in
May, 19I7-that would have seemed
TO be about on schedule, / meal the
German schedule, according to which
we were TO be starved into surrender
in six months. The apparent delay in
the submarine campaign is thus about
nine months; the real delay is very
much more, for during those nine
months we have made enormous in
creases in output of shipping and in
the effectiveness of anti-submarine
warfare. Say for the sake of argu-
ment that the real delay is twice the
apparent delay. That gives US eigh-
teen months grace, provided the pro-
portional strength of attack and re-
sistance is maintained"
But how does the argument apply
to the American situaton?" he was
asked.
in this way. The submarine war
against America may be said TO have
really started with the first large
shipment Of American troops to Eu-
rope. That was in June, 1917. The
first effect Of this warfare was not
felt until the Tuscania was sunk.
Once more Germany is about nine
months behind her schedula Her
avowed expectation was to be able to
prevent the assembling of any con-
siderable American forces in France
this spring. Instead Of that her sub
marine campaign against them has
only just begun. America has thus
obtained a clear apparent gain Of nine
months. What IS the real gain?
Does it follow. because the real delay
Of German effort against England is
twice the apparent delay, that Amer
lea also has eighteen months grace?
mo. There the analogy fails.
England has been able to reduce her
needs Of transportation by rationing
and other measures, but Americas
transportation requirements con-
stantly increase with the growing
strength of her forces in France.
The possible maximum strength of
her arms in Europe is limited, quite
apart from submarine inroads, by the
quantity Of tonnage available for
supplies; an army Of 10 million men
would only be so per cent effective in
this war if shipping available for
keeping them supplied could not be
increased beyond the tonnage neces-
sary for the supply of 5 million men .
Germany knows, or thinks she knows
the present actual limitations of ton.
mage. The object of her U-boats i,
to keep it down to a point that viii
make it impossible for the American
armies in France to grow to a for
midable size. What has happened il
that she has made a start on her &C
tual task just about nine months be
hind schedule. Now if, in the mean
time, Americas shipping require
ments had not increased, and if he
ship-building had kept pace with tn
; program laid down to meet the ex
pected losses Of these nine months
America might be considered also +
have won eighteen months grace
But there have been delays in he
ship-building, as we all know, durinl
that period, and her tonnage require
ments are constantly increasing
Therefore, quite ignoring any figure
that may have come 20 my notice,
should say that America has game.
nine months against the submarine
in point Of time, but that the balanc
Of American requirements and re
g0urces in tonnage remains about III
same. n otheF wOrds, the problem
far hmerea Ia usca tire same a. /
was niDs r1Etht sEg. Lzaea she
bound u Es1s Gsrgss5 has not ye
e~pneentFss< ha M ss@alss pine
On AmerEae ssg e9mmgnea
tions; Uhes cas yss &ssemp4 I
stare EsZlsas A ag&o19hs1, nm
desperate ettqg sgs,ar. hmeriea vi.
be maAs. Then vii s2fns ne res
test IL AmeresE rcsogrees abev
all, II American fhipyards. Germs
ny will never cut the American In