Evening star., 1918-01-20
GERMANY'S LAST GREAT DRIVE
FORECAST FOR MARCH OR APRIL :.
SOMEWHERE ON FRENCH FRONT

Is some reason for haste, Germany Will
not hurry her preparations. Her
course in the east in 1915, when she
suffered Przemysl to fall into Russian
hands rather than hasten her Dunajec
blow. Is the best proof Of this. And
since this is to be the supreme bid for
ounce Of strength on hand. Delay will
not enable her enemies to increase their
numbers or materially to improve their
situation. For six months at least,
probably for year. the great con-
testants will stand in the same rela-
tion to each other in numbers and in
material. All the conditions that we
know of point to an attack in April
or May. Conditions concerning which
we know nothing may mako for an
earlier blow, but these conditions will
on the whole be advantageous to the
allies rather than Germany, because
they will compel her to attack when
the weather is unsuitable for cam
paigning and in advance of sufficient
time to make the best possible prepara-
ton.
On French Front, Is Belief.
The next question is: Where will
French or the British? What part of
the front she selects to assail will she
choose as her objective? First of all.
there is general agreement that Ger
many will attack the French front.
The reasons are brutally plain. France
has suffered more than any other of
the allied nations and is therefore near
est exhausted. Her losses have begun
to weaken her reserves, and against a
terrific concentrated German assault
she might break. since she cannot be
aided by Americans for SIX months or
a year and the British will have their
own hands full and are beginning to
feel the strain of the war themselves.
Germany thought France was bled
white at the Verdun time. She believed
France would give UP after defeat
before Verdun. Her calculations proved
mistaken. France did not give up, she
was not then bled white, and she has
since that time defeated German forces
these have cost her dearly, and her
great ally. Russia. has deserted her.
while her new ally, America, cannot be
ready in time to help her at the su
preme crisis. So Germany will in all
human probability endeavor to accom-
plish in 1918 what she failed to do in
1916 and in 1s14-that Is. put France
out before the arrival Of allied aid
can save the French.
Now, it is clear that il France is in the
Germans will fail again. because France
is not yet, despite cruel losses, bled
white and her armies are better supplied
with guns and with ammunition than
on either previous occasion. Moreover,
whatever happens. the French are
bound to have vastly better aid from
the British in the coming struggle than
ever before. At the Marne the British
were numerically almost negligible and
actually contributed little to the French
victory. For five months the French held
Vsrdun without any British aid. Nothing
like this will happen again, because
today the British have both numbers
and trained numbers. They are ready,
quite as ready as the Germans can
possibly be.
If the French Line Breaks.
One does not prophesy, but the condi-
tions of the contest are plain. The Ger
mans will be able to put superior num-
bers and, for the moment, superior
artillery at the point or points on the
French front which they select for bat
tering. II the French hold as they did
at Eerdun the result will be colossal
German defeat, however great the
assert, France cannot stand this new
sacrifice. we shall see break, and
Germany will win the war. But il we
see another Verdun Germany will have
negotiated peace next fall on far Diff
ferent terms from any she has yet sur-
gested, with the purpose to avoid an
allied attack in 1919, when the United
States is at last ready.
Now, the next question is, PATIENTLY:
Where on the French front will the Ger
mans attack? Either in Champagne or
in Lorraine, the majority of observers be-
lieve: possibly in both places Rheims and
Nancy are the two objectives most gen
orally suggested. not as ultimate, but as
Immediate objectives That the Ger
mans will attack west of the Disc, where
the British will probably take over
French positions. il they have not done
SO already, is improbable That thav
will attack the Chemin- -des-Dames front.
where the French have all the high
ground. is unlikely. when it is recalled
how desperate was the German resist
ance there for more than three years.
In the same fashion we may rule out
the front from the western end of the
Argonne to the southern -defenses of
verdun: Germany has tested these de-
fenses in two great attacks, in the Ar
gonne in 1914 and 1915 and about Yer